# Coronavirus outbreak



## PeteXXX (23 Jan 2020)

The Coronavirus (Wuhan virus) outbreak. 
How worried should the world be?


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## Cycleops (23 Jan 2020)

Very, especially as the cause has yet to be identified. Must be terrible to be living in Wuhan. This is what the BBC reported:
Residents have been told not to leave. Worried about a food shortage, one said it felt like "the end of the world".


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## nickyboy (23 Jan 2020)

My friends in China are worried. Everyone who wanted to leave Wuhan for New Year (it's tomorrow) will already have left. Estimate is more than 1million have left Wuhan for other Chinese cities.
CNY is the most popular holiday season in China with thousands of Wuhan residents going to places like Thailand. Although flights are cancelled out of Wuhan it's easy to travel to a nearby airport and take a flight from there
I think the next couple of weeks are key. Really the run up to CNY is the worst possible time for spreading the virus


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## Illaveago (23 Jan 2020)

One of the things scientists are worried about is the way in which viruses can be spread so rapidly these days with air travel .

The Spanish Flu of 1918 which killed millions died out at one point before mutating and spreading again . They think that because travelling was a lot slower in those days that the infection was confined and died out before reaching other people .


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## nickyboy (23 Jan 2020)

Friends in China telling me this morning that since 10am local time nobody is allowed to leave Wuhan, even by private vehicle
This isn't being reported in UK yet

So this stops Wuhan residents leaving. But the problem is the million or so who left in the past week to head home for CNY


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## derrick (23 Jan 2020)

The last flight into the UK the passengers were not even checked, Just given a leaflet.


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## cookiemonster (23 Jan 2020)

The authorities here in Hong Kong are on full alert for the virus. The newly opened high speed rail network, which links Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan, Guangzhou and Shenzhen to Hong Kong is the focus of the attention this weekend, Chinese New Year. There's already been a scare this afternoon - https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...na-coronavirus-panic-sweeps-through-hong-kong

Cathay has cancelled all flights to Wuhan and Wuhan has essentially been shut down. The city is twice the size of London.

There has been 3 confirmed cases in Shenzhen, which is just over the border from us here in Hong Kong and thousands cross the border daily by various means of transport.

The issue that the doctors are worried about is what they call 'Super Spreaders.' People who are carrying the virus but are not suffering any effects but can pass it on to others. And, of course, the fact that people have been travelling for CNY since Tuesday when the schools started to break up.

Everyone here is wearing a face mask. Too many bad memories of the 2003 SARS epidemic.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...0/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-widens-criteria

*edit* Just been announced that the neighbouring city to Wuhan, Huanggang, will also be shut down from midnight local time tonight, about 6 hours from now.

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1504458-20200123.htm


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## numbnuts (23 Jan 2020)

If or should I say when it gets over here will the NHS be able to cope


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## cookiemonster (23 Jan 2020)

numbnuts said:


> If or should I say when it gets over here will the NHS be able to cope



To their credit, the Chinese authorities are handling this very well but it's come at a bad time, Chinese New Year when a country of a billion and a half people are on the move. 

How the NHS will cope IF it comes to the UK is anyone's guess.


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## Arrowfoot (23 Jan 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> To their credit, the Chinese authorities are handling this very well but it's come at a bad time, Chinese New Year when a country of a billion and a half people are on the move.


During the SARS crisis, also a coronavirus strains from civet cats, the outbreak was denied for weeks. This time around the Chinese authorities came out fighting and fast. I remember this warning that central govt issued a few days ago to all local medical and hospital authorities - anyone who conceals cases will be "nailed to the pillar of shame". Wow!


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## numbnuts (23 Jan 2020)

I did say when
Two people in UK hospital with suspected coronavirus after flying in from China, lets hope they just have a cold


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## rualexander (23 Jan 2020)

Is it any worse than the annual 'flu season though?
Thousands of people die from getting 'flu every year.
So far only a small number of people have died from this new coronavirus, and most were in the usual vulnerable categories.


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## Beebo (23 Jan 2020)

numbnuts said:


> If or should I say when it gets over here will the NHS be able to cope


I’m sure they are as prepared as well as any other western health service. See how they managed the Ebola patient last time. But I doubt any health service could cope with a pandemic that affects 20% of the population. 

The worry as always are the less developed countries that simply can’t cope. 

Will it be like SARS and fade away. I hope so.


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## vickster (23 Jan 2020)

rualexander said:


> Is it any worse than the annual 'flu season though?
> Thousands of people die from getting 'flu every year.
> So far only a small number of people have died from this new coronavirus, and most were in the usual vulnerable categories.


And globally around 135k die from measles a year, a preventable disease


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## RoadRider400 (23 Jan 2020)

rualexander said:


> Is it any worse than the annual 'flu season though?
> Thousands of people die from getting 'flu every year.
> So far only a small number of people have died from this new coronavirus, and most were in the usual vulnerable categories.



Thats just the thing, we dont know. Unlike the Ebola outbreak where those infected died very quickly, and had fewer transport links this virus could be the perfect storm. We may have a situation where lots of infected people could potentially have left the epicentre to travel around the globe without even knowing they had the illness. As has already been said; the next few weeks are going to be key.


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## glasgowcyclist (24 Jan 2020)

numbnuts said:


> I did say when
> Two people in UK hospital with suspected coronavirus after flying in from China, lets hope they just have a cold



Well, so far so good. All those being tested for the virus have been given the all clear. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51241245


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## BoldonLad (24 Jan 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Well, so far so good. All those being tested for the virus have been given the all clear. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51241245



I wish the experts would make their mind up. I cannot decide if I should spend like mad, just in case it is the end of the world, or, just plod on as usual.


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## slowmotion (25 Jan 2020)

There are lots of ailments that I could die of. I don't sit about paralysed with fear about any of them. Relax.


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## RecordAceFromNew (26 Jan 2020)

rualexander said:


> Is it any worse than the annual 'flu season though?
> Thousands of people die from getting 'flu every year.



Actually, tens of thousands die each year, from flu, in USA alone. Think most don't worry about what the news don't print...


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## Levo-Lon (26 Jan 2020)

slowmotion said:


> There are lots of ailments that I could die of. I don't sit about paralysed with fear about any of them. Relax.





Me too, but i suspect a few at my work will get it and need a week off


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## Julia9054 (26 Jan 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Actually, tens of thousands die each year, from flu, in USA alone. Think most don't worry about what the news don't print...


I read that the mortality rate is currently estimated to be 3%. Rate for seasonal flu is 1% for comparison
3% is likely to be an over estimate as not all contracting this corona virus will visit the doctor and have their illness confirmed.
As with flu, the deaths are amongst the old, sick and immunocompromised
Unlike flu, there is no vaccine as of yet


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## Joey Shabadoo (26 Jan 2020)

On another board there are posters both in China itself and in countries nearby - Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore etc. Their feelings are that this is being woefully under-reported by the Chinese authorities, just as they did with SARS (when Doctors were ordered to hide bodies in locked rooms to stop WHO Drs seeing them). A 1000-bed hospital is being built in 10 days () to cope with the demand. They also point to the announcements by the Chinese Leadership which emphasise control and stability - key things for a totalitarian dictatorship, bad news is destabilising. Local "mayors" who reported figures during the SARS outbreak were executed for revealing deaths before Central Government so local reporting has been subdued this time around.

Meanwhile, isn't it a bit odd for the BBC to be sending reporters into a quarantined zone where there's a deadly virus which still isn't understood?


> Authorities in China are intensifying travel restrictions in an attempt to limit the spread of the deadly new coronavirus.
> 
> The BBC's Stephen McDonell and his team travelled into Hubei province, where the outbreak originated.



View: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-china-51255918/china-coronavirus-road-blocks-and-ghost-towns


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## MontyVeda (26 Jan 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Actually, tens of thousands die each year, from flu, in USA alone. *Think most don't worry about what the news don't print.*..


And the press does love to whip us all into a frenzy... fearing for our lives, especially when it's a foreign virus rather than the good old British flu. There was a minor panic on facebook the other day... 14 people in the UK have been tested! OMG!! No mention of the fact that they'd all been tested and given the all clear... just the word 'tested' was enough to make people fear the worst


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## Racing roadkill (26 Jan 2020)

Given the level of PPE being deployed ( class 4 pathogen level) and the fact that the Chinese have already mapped the genome of the virus, and know exactly what they are up against, I’d say we should be concerned.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/c...ws-people-collapsing-suddenly-Wuhan-city.html
This doesn’t exactly help either.


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## ianbarton (26 Jan 2020)

rualexander said:


> Is it any worse than the annual 'flu season though?


So far the death rate is around 3%, so hardly catastrophic. It would be interesting to know if deaths are distributed through all sectors of those infected, or are mainly in groups that have something like chronic respiratory diseases. Please can we have some Chinese companies in the UK that can build a thousand-bed hospital in a week?


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## Julia9054 (26 Jan 2020)

ianbarton said:


> So far the death rate is around 3%, so hardly catastrophic. It would be interesting to know if deaths are distributed through all sectors of those infected, or are mainly in groups that have something like chronic respiratory diseases. Please can we have some Chinese companies in the UK that can build a thousand-bed hospital in a week?


Please see my post up thread


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## Fab Foodie (27 Jan 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I read that the mortality rate is currently estimated to be 3%. Rate for seasonal flu is 1% for comparison
> 3% is likely to be an over estimate as not all contracting this corona virus will visit the doctor and have their illness confirmed.
> As with flu, the deaths are amongst the old, sick and immunocompromised
> Unlike flu, there is no vaccine as of yet


3% is not to he sneezed at....


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## twentysix by twentyfive (27 Jan 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> 3% is not to he sneezed at....


errr cough........


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## cookiemonster (27 Jan 2020)

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...na-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call


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## Joey Shabadoo (27 Jan 2020)

eek!


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## johnblack (27 Jan 2020)

In 2005 when the H5N1 virus was being touted as the next Spanish flu, the Chinese were not so fast to act, the BBC and Daily Mail went in to full panic mode and the final death count was about 500. 

Obviously we don't know how this one will end up, but, the reporting seems completely out of context and designed to whip up hysteria.

But building a hospital in 10 days is pretty cool.


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## Racing roadkill (27 Jan 2020)

I’d be interested to hear about anyone who’s contracted it, gone through the symptoms, and survived, and if any legacy effects are left.


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## Racing roadkill (27 Jan 2020)

Ordinarily I wouldn’t be too concerned. However, a few years back, when the swine flu thing was happening, a colleague of mine came into work, not looking terribly well, by the time he was half way through his shift he was sent home, and now there’s a tree with a plaque attached to it, in his memory, in our grounds. It just so happens a new starter to us, is currently in China, because that’s where his GF lives, I hope he gets quarantined, that would be properly funny.


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## glasgowcyclist (27 Jan 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> It just so happens a new starter to us, is currently in China, because that’s where his GF lives, I hope he gets quarantined, that would be properly funny.



Hardly.


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## Fab Foodie (27 Jan 2020)

twentysix by twentyfive said:


> errr cough........


You ok?


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## Fab Foodie (27 Jan 2020)

I went for a check yesterday as was feeling a bit unfer the weather after my travels, I has become vey white and hairy, I couldn’t bear it any more....turns out I have contracted Crestavirus, it’s like Coronavirus but more frothy....


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## Beebo (27 Jan 2020)

The UK Government is asking anyone who has recently returned from Wuhan to self isolate themselves. 
This isn’t going to happen, people are inherently selfish and will carry on with their lives.


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## newfhouse (27 Jan 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I went for a check yesterday as was feeling a bit unfer the weather after my travels, I has become vey white and hairy, I couldn’t bear it any more....turns out I have contracted Crestavirus, it’s like Coronavirus but more frothy....


Man... did you pass the fizzical?


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## slowmotion (27 Jan 2020)

The Spanish flu pandemic which lasted from 1918 to 1920 killed about 50 million people worldwide including about 650,000 in the US. It was an unusual strain in that a very large proportion of the victims were young and healthy, unlike "normal" flu which tends to strike down the elderly and infirm. I suppose I should worry more about Coronavirus but you get pretty jaded by the relentless stream of apocalyptic tales that the media rams down your throat.


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## Beebo (27 Jan 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I went for a check yesterday as was feeling a bit unfer the weather after my travels, I has become vey white and hairy, I couldn’t bear it any more....turns out I have contracted Crestavirus, it’s like Coronavirus but more frothy....



Did they offer you first aid or lemonade?


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## RoadRider400 (27 Jan 2020)

Beebo said:


> The UK Government is asking anyone who has recently returned from Wuhan to self isolate themselves.
> This isn’t going to happen, people are inherently selfish and will carry on with their lives.


Agreed plus you have the ignorance factor where most people still think its just a regular flu bug.


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## Fab Foodie (27 Jan 2020)

Beebo said:


> Did they offer you first aid or lemonade?


To be honest, as I didn’t know whether it was Christmas or Easter, I got Band Aid....


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## RecordAceFromNew (28 Jan 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> *Unlike flu, there is no vaccine* as of yet



Actually since only a handful of strains of flu are chosen by the WHO to produce vaccines, out of numerous possible strains both in existence and mutated etc., the effectiveness of vaccines has not exactly been stellar, else the annual death toll from flu won't be so huge.



johnblack said:


> But building a hospital in 10 days is pretty cool.



Things certainly work differently there. I happened to be in country (thankfully not Wuhan) for a day a couple of weeks ago. What is interesting, is that some in the West still think it is a backward country only noted for paddy field farming and making cheap counterfeit goods. I have no doubt those hospitals will be built on time - you can see Youtube time lapses of them replacing a 1300 tonne bridge in a busy Beijing interchange under 4 days, or erecting a 57 storey skyscraper in 19 days.


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## Beebo (28 Jan 2020)

Worrying story coming out of Germany. They have confirmed a case where the patient hasn’t ever been to China.


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## Unkraut (28 Jan 2020)

He was infected by a visitor from China, who only felt unwell on the plane back home. The virus is infectious before the symptoms start to be felt.


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Jan 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> To be honest, as I didn’t know whether it was Christmas or Easter, I got Band Aid....



Is that why you don’t like Mondays ?


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Jan 2020)

Stayed in Wuhan during my world travels 20 years ago. So the news images compared to my memories and photos of a vibrant city are stark.


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## greenmark (28 Jan 2020)

Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.

First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.

In Hong Kong we've gone into full SARS mode. People here know the drill. The measures people are taking were the ones implemented to get SARS rate down below R0=1. So, all public events are being cancelled. Everyone is wearing a surgical mask out of home (although technically only infectious people wear need wear one, and technically you could get arrested for it as a protestor). Wash your hands every 30 minutes or so with alcohol sanitiser or soap and water.

My suggestions - be prepared for when this reaches Europe. Right now the one thing you should do is stock up on hand sanitiser. 

Once it starts getting into Europe start stocking up on face masks. Then stock up on household essentials such as tinned food. Get into the habit of washing your hands frequently and wash thoroughly for at least 20 seconds each time. Get some surgical face masks if you can - this won't necessarily help you but will reduce you passing it on to others.

Be prepared also for lockdowns similar to Foot & Mouth. This will include cancellation of large public events such as RideLondon, marathons etc.


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## slowmotion (29 Jan 2020)

greenmark said:


> Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.
> 
> First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.
> 
> ...


Do you work for a company whose products include "sanitary wipes", hand lotions, face masks and Red Top headlines?


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## greenmark (29 Jan 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Do you work for a company whose products include "sanitary wipes", hand lotions, face masks and Red Top headlines?



LoL

I mention this not because these things are going to be particularly effective, but these are the things that will disappear from shops quickest.
The biggest risk, at the early stages, this isn't the infection itself but the run on stocks. For example, in HK we can't buy face masks anywhere any more. Thankfully we have not had panic buying of foods, even in China. 

I feel (based on talks with family) is that perceptions in the UK are about the same as we were only one single week ago. People should be concerned but not panicked, but again don't be complacent.


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## slowmotion (29 Jan 2020)

I'm not concerned, panicking or complacent. Will I get ill?


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## cookiemonster (29 Jan 2020)

greenmark said:


> Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.
> 
> First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.
> 
> ...




Where in Hong Kong are you?


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## cookiemonster (29 Jan 2020)

greenmark said:


> LoL
> 
> I mention this not because these things are going to be particularly effective, but these are the things that will disappear from shops quickest.
> The biggest risk, at the early stages, this isn't the infection itself but the run on stocks. *For example, in HK we can't buy face masks anywhere any more. *Thankfully we have not had panic buying of foods, even in China.
> ...



True. However, I'm off to South Korea on Friday so I'm going to grab some when I'm over there.


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## MichaelW2 (29 Jan 2020)

With modern transport links and massive cities, potential epidemic diseases need to be addressed very rapidly before they spin out of control. Small differences in mortality rate can have big impacts on the number of deaths in a pandemic.
Besides the health issues, this incident is having a significant economic impact which is, as we like to day here, not to be sniffed at.
China is well equipped to deal with a pandemic, being an authoritarian, centralized power. This power was misused in the SARS outbreak and the authorities have realized their errors. 
As official statements don't day: 'Anyone who behaves now like the Communist Party of China behaved during the SARS outbreak will be punished severely"


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## cookiemonster (29 Jan 2020)

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinio...s-crisis-sars-epidemic-was-worsened-communist

The CCP didn't do themselves any favours. Apparently, they knew about this a full month before they admitted that there was a problem. This happened during SARS.


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## Fab Foodie (29 Jan 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Is that why you don’t like Mondays ?


Or, that European capital city who’s name escapes me.....
Oh Vienna!


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## Joey Shabadoo (29 Jan 2020)

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-link-china-biowarfare-program-possible/



> *Coronavirus may have originated in lab linked to China's biowarfare program*



shurely not? Pretty crap biowarfare program if they've developed something that gives the enemy a dose of sniffles.


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## Ming the Merciless (29 Jan 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Or, that European capital city who’s name escapes me.....
> Oh Vienna!



Sunday, bloody Sunday!


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## Low Gear Guy (29 Jan 2020)

greenmark said:


> Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.
> 
> First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.
> 
> ...


Shall we cancel all Brexit celebrations?


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## Rezillo (29 Jan 2020)

Very difficult to get hard information on cases but this is an interesting if rather worrying article:

Lancet article


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## RoadRider400 (29 Jan 2020)

greenmark said:


> Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.
> 
> First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.
> 
> ...



Thanks for the insight. I wonder at that number of cases in the UK will start the mass buying of cleaning products and long life food. Most of the people I know dont really have any concerns at all. Just how serious do you need to be about cleaning? For example whilst washing your hands do you then need to also clean the handle in soap or alcohol based sanitiser?


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## Fab Foodie (29 Jan 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Thanks for the insight. I wonder at that number of cases in the UK will start the mass buying of cleaning products and long life food. Most of the people I know dont really have any concerns at all. Just how serious do you need to be about cleaning? For example whilst washing your hands do you then need to also clean the handle in soap or alcohol based sanitiser?


I’m not taking any chances, I’m stocking-up internally with as much alcohol as possible...just in case....


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## RoadRider400 (29 Jan 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I’m not taking any chances, I’m stocking-up internally with as much alcohol as possible...just in case....


cinzano advocate doesnt count.


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## cookiemonster (29 Jan 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I’m not taking any chances, I’m stocking-up internally with as much alcohol as possible...just in case....


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## Adam4868 (29 Jan 2020)

Wear a condom ?


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## Beebo (29 Jan 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Wear a condom ?
> View attachment 502516


I think someone’s playing with you. 
Do you have a direct link from the WHO website. 
I have.


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## Adam4868 (29 Jan 2020)

Beebo said:


> I think someone’s playing with you.
> Do you have a direct link from the WHO website.
> I have.
> View attachment 502517


I sort of knew that 😁


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## greenmark (29 Jan 2020)

OK, less than 24 hours after my last post and panic buying at the supermarkets has started. 

And so far we've had only 10 confirmed infections in Hong Kong.

It's quite worrying how quickly this is degenerating.


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## Fab Foodie (30 Jan 2020)

greenmark said:


> OK, less than 24 hours after my last post and panic buying at the supermarkets has started.
> 
> And so far we've had only 10 confirmed infections in Hong Kong.
> 
> It's quite worrying how quickly this is degenerating.


....the Preppers will already have run to the hills...


However, if you think that’s bad:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...as-coronavirus-spreads?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Trivial though it may seem, this will have a big impact on employees, supply chain etc.
Furthermore, as people try to return to work in China, what due diligence should be put in place by employers? Should employees be screened and monitored? There are all kinds of ramifications....


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## RoadRider400 (30 Jan 2020)

greenmark said:


> OK, less than 24 hours after my last post and panic buying at the supermarkets has started.
> 
> And so far we've had only 10 confirmed infections in Hong Kong.
> 
> It's quite worrying how quickly this is degenerating.


Hi
Do you have any more updates about your local situation?


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## Fab Foodie (30 Jan 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I’m not taking any chances, I’m stocking-up internally with as much alcohol as possible...just in case....


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## Ming the Merciless (30 Jan 2020)

greenmark said:


> OK, less than 24 hours after my last post and panic buying at the supermarkets has started.
> 
> And so far we've had only 10 confirmed infections in Hong Kong.
> 
> It's quite worrying how quickly this is degenerating.



Yeah but based on the infection rates you quoted.

10 infect 22 infect 44 infect 88 infect 172 infect 344 infect 688 infect 1378 infect 2756 etc...


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## greenmark (31 Jan 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> ....the Preppers will already have run to the hills...
> 
> 
> However, if you think that’s bad:
> ...


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## Pale Rider (31 Jan 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Thanks for the insight. I wonder at that number of cases in the UK will start the mass buying of cleaning products and long life food. Most of the people I know dont really have any concerns at all. Just how serious do you need to be about cleaning? For example whilst washing your hands do you then need to also clean the handle in soap or alcohol based sanitiser?



Someone on the radio said washing doesn't have much impact on the transmission of a virus.

Transmission is by contact with an infected person, hence the focus on quarantining.

In other words, I could scrub up as much as I liked, but I could still cop the virus if I was breathed on or sneezed on by a infected person.


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## johnnyb47 (31 Jan 2020)

Just on the news its arrived here in Blighty. 2 people have been tested positive for it. 
Scary news 😳


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## Phaeton (31 Jan 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> Just on the news its arrived here in Blighty. 2 people have been tested positive for it.
> Scary news 😳


To be expected


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## Joffey (31 Jan 2020)

I wish they would announce where it is


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## Phaeton (31 Jan 2020)

Joffey said:


> I wish they would announce where it is


How would that help? they have been contagious for the last 2 weeks, so unless you are going to track every single person they have been in contact with over that period, then track everybody those people have been in contact with you won't know if you're in a 'safe' area.


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## Joffey (31 Jan 2020)

Phaeton said:


> How would that help? they have been contagious for the last 2 weeks, so unless you are going to track every single person they have been in contact with over that period, then track everybody those people have been in contact with you won't know if you're in a 'safe' area.



Why is not knowing helpful?


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## Beebo (31 Jan 2020)

they are both from the same family, so it hasn’t spread far yet. 
but we have 14 days to find out!

i was on the tube yesterday, and people were already wearing masks.


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## Beebo (31 Jan 2020)

Joffey said:


> Why is not knowing helpful?


Newcastle is the rumour


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## nickyboy (31 Jan 2020)

Beebo said:


> they are both from the same family, so it hasn’t spread far yet.
> but we have 14 days to find out!
> 
> i was on the tube yesterday, and people were already wearing masks.


In the overall scheme of things, cases in countries with sophisticated healthcare systems (and I include China in that list) aren't the biggest problem. These countries have the resources to contain and ultimately defeat the virus. China was unlucky as the outbreak occured just as a hundred million people were on the move

The problem will be if it takes hold in countries with less developed healthcare systems such as India and Indonesia


----------



## Phaeton (31 Jan 2020)

Joffey said:


> Why is not knowing helpful?


You first, I've already asked why you feel it would be helpful to know, would you change the way you lead your life if it was in London rather than Leeds which is only 2 hours away by train & commuters do it daily.


----------



## Blue Hills (31 Jan 2020)

Beebo said:


> was on the tube yesterday, and people were already wearing masks.


Have seen a few folk around london wearing masks. Most of the ones i saw looked chinese, may have been brits of course. Woman next to me on the overground yesterday appeared to have an improvised mask using a scarf. Told me twice that was invading her half of the armrest, told me with some force not to touch her. I considered her bonkers, pretty much told her so. The tube is a notorious spreader of coughs etc but i think she had other issues.


----------



## johnblack (31 Jan 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Have seen a few folk around london wearing masks. Most of the ones i saw looked chinese, may have been brits of course. Woman next to me on the overground yesterday appeared to have an improvised mask using a scarf. Told me twice that was invading her half of the armrest, told me with some force not to touch her. I considered her bonkers, pretty much told her so. The tube is a notorious spreader of coughs etc but i think she had other issues.


It will be the hipsters next, not sure a mask will be that great with their big old beards.


----------



## Adam4868 (31 Jan 2020)

johnblack said:


> It will be the hipsters next, not sure a mask will be that great with their big old beards.



I'm not sure those cheap masks stop much at all.


----------



## Joffey (31 Jan 2020)

Phaeton said:


> You first, I've already asked why you feel it would be helpful to know, would you change the way you lead your life if it was in London rather than Leeds which is only 2 hours away by train & commuters do it daily.



OK, I'm not going to play these games. You obviously know, or believe to know, why not telling the public is for the good of the public but instead of advising me you want to try and trap me somehow first insisting I answer. Well my answer is I just want to know. I want to know if the risk is close to me or not. Now your turn.


----------



## johnblack (31 Jan 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> I'm not sure those cheap masks stop much at all.


I might start wearing my scarf like an eighties football casual, that'll work.


----------



## Joffey (31 Jan 2020)

Beebo said:


> Newcastle is the rumour



I've heard that they are been treated in Newcastle so it may figure that it was the person or person's recently tested in York. But it's all speculation.

If only the authorities told us and it would stop the rumours. Imagine that!


----------



## johnblack (31 Jan 2020)

Joffey said:


> I've heard that they are been treated in Newcastle so it may figure that it was the person or person's recently tested in York. But it's all speculation.
> 
> If only the authorities told us and it would stop the rumours. Imagine that!


It wouldn't change anything, it doesn't really matter where they are, if they're in Newcastle or York, the rest of the population there can't change anything they've done in the past two weeks.


----------



## Pale Rider (31 Jan 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> I'm not sure those cheap masks stop much at all.



Transmission can be by breathing in tiny airborne particles, particularly from a sneeze.

I suppose the cheap paper masks may stop or absorb those particles, but I don't know.


----------



## nickyboy (31 Jan 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> I'm not sure those cheap masks stop much at all.


They are only of use to stop the most obvious of splashes or large droplets (ie if someone sneezed in your face). To be effective it needs to be an N95 mask which stops about 95% of all airborne particles. These are uncomfortable to wear as it makes breathing difficult. The cheap masks do offer some protection as they actually stop us putting our (infected) fingers near our mouths

At a practical level, the most effective thing people can do is to have a rigorous hand sanitising regime and to only touch things like lift buttons, banisters, door handles with gloved hands or knuckles etc


----------



## Adam4868 (31 Jan 2020)

The cheap masks will offer next to no protection to a virus such as this.Maybe more to someone who doesn't want to pass it on they'd be of use.


----------



## Phaeton (31 Jan 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Have seen a few folk around london wearing masks.


We have quite a large contingent of Chinese students in Sheffield especially behind the Cathedral where lots of the office blocks have been converted into 'luxury' flats, it's not uncommon to see them walking around with face masks, even well before this outbreak.


Joffey said:


> OK, I'm not going to play these games. You obviously know, or believe to know, why not telling the public is for the good of the public but instead of advising me you want to try and trap me somehow first insisting I answer. Well my answer is I just want to know. I want to know if the risk is close to me or not. Now your turn.


I'm not playing any games I just fail to see how knowing where the 2 people are will either help you or change the way you lead your life. you do understand how the disease spreads don't you?

If I told you they were in isolation ward C2 Floor 6 of Newcastle General Hospital being cared for by a team of 12 special service personal specially trained in contagious disease medicine would it make you feel better?


----------



## Joffey (31 Jan 2020)

johnblack said:


> It wouldn't change anything, it doesn't really matter where they are, if they're in Newcastle or York, the rest of the population there can't change anything they've done in the past two weeks.



I agree it can't change past behaviour but it might be able to change future behaviour. Currently we are going on as normal - knowing it is local might have people washing their hands more, being vigilant, not visiting the doctors if they have a cold etc... 

But what would be nice is to know where the cases are and have proper medical and government advice if you are in these areas. But I suppose that's too much to ask for Boris Johnson who's tenure so far has been based on lies, mistruths and avoiding answering questions or scrutiny.

I appreciate that telling us might cause panic - but we are going to find out anyway - why not tell us sooner and control the situation rather than allowing speculation and rumour to circulate?

Personally I would like to know. You might not. Fair enough either way.


----------



## nickyboy (31 Jan 2020)

Phaeton said:


> We have quite a large contingent of Chinese students in Sheffield especially behind the Cathedral where lots of the office blocks have been converted into 'luxury' flats, it's not uncommon to see them walking around with face masks, even well before this outbreak.
> I'm not playing any games I just fail to see how knowing where the 2 people are will either help you or change the way you lead your life. you do understand how the disease spreads don't you?
> 
> If I told you they were in isolation ward C2 Floor 6 of Newcastle General Hospital being cared for by a team of 12 special service personal specially trained in contagious disease medicine would it make you feel better?


To be fair, I think wanting to know the location of the infected individuals (prior to treatment) is very much relevant. The virus is transmittable well before symptoms manifest themselves. If, for example, they were from my town, I would be very cautious now. If they were from somewhere 100 miles away I wouldn't be concerned. Where they're being treated now? Irrelevant


----------



## Joffey (31 Jan 2020)

nickyboy said:


> To be fair, I think wanting to know the location of the infected individuals (prior to treatment) is very much relevant. The virus is transmittable well before symptoms manifest themselves. If, for example, they were from my town, I would be very cautious now. If they were from somewhere 100 miles away I wouldn't be concerned. Where they're being treated now? Irrelevant



Exactly. I'm not bothered where they are being treated but I'd like to know if they were diagnosed in York, 35 miles away, so I can be a little more vigilant.


----------



## johnblack (31 Jan 2020)

Joffey said:


> Exactly. I'm not bothered where they are being treated but I'd like to know if they were diagnosed in York, 35 miles away, so I can be a little more vigilant.


Just be vigilant anyway.


----------



## Phaeton (31 Jan 2020)

nickyboy said:


> If they were from somewhere 100 miles away I wouldn't be concerned.





Joffey said:


> Exactly. I'm not bothered where they are being treated but I'd like to know if they were diagnosed in York, 35 miles away, so I can be a little more vigilant.


Sorry but I think this is irrelevant, they are in the UK, so you have to treat anybody now in the UK as a potential carrier, if they have spent the last 2 weeks in London, just think of the number of people who have been to London for a reason in the last 2 weeks, then think of the number of people who they have been in contact with. Granted if they had spent the last weeks in a Lincolnshire village & never travelled outside of the village in that time but I find that highly unlikely. 

This is just typical of the UK civil service, as soon as the Chinese announced it, let's face it for them to announce it means it was already serious, we should have stopped all flights.


----------



## nickyboy (31 Jan 2020)

Phaeton said:


> Sorry but I think this is irrelevant, they are in the UK, so you have to treat anybody now in the UK as a potential carrier, if they have spent the last 2 weeks in London, just think of the number of people who have been to London for a reason in the last 2 weeks, then think of the number of people who they have been in contact with. Granted if they had spent the last weeks in a Lincolnshire village & never travelled outside of the village in that time but I find that highly unlikely.
> 
> This is just typical of the UK civil service, as soon as the Chinese announced it, let's face it for them to announce it means it was already serious, we should have stopped all flights.


Yebbut statistical analysis of how viruses spread doesn't support your assertion. People are generally sedentary and follow regular patterns in any two week period. If, for example, the infected people lived and worked in York I wouldn't be at all concerned here in Derbyshire as the contact between York and Glossop is very modest. If they lived and worked in, say, Hyde (which is about 4 miles from where I live) I would be concerned and would modify my behavior accordingly
Having said that, I will be in London the week after next and I think it prudent to take reasonable precautions regarding hand washing etc whilst there. The reason being that thousands travel to London every day (from York for example) and the tube seems an ideal place to pass any virus


----------



## Phaeton (31 Jan 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Yebbut statistical analysis of how viruses spread doesn't support your assertion. People are generally sedentary and follow regular patterns in any two week period. If, for example, the infected people lived and worked in York I wouldn't be at all concerned here in Derbyshire as the contact between York and Glossop is very modest. If they lived and worked in, say, Hyde (which is about 4 miles from where I live) I would be concerned and would modify my behavior accordingly
> Having said that, I will be in London the week after next and I think it prudent to take reasonable precautions regarding hand washing etc whilst there. The reason being that thousands travel to London every day (from York for example) and the tube seems an ideal place to pass any virus


Although I sort of agree with you, these are visitors to the UK, therefore your sedimentary pattern is unlikely to be correct, visitors move around a lot more, for instance the biggest tourist attraction for Chinese visitors is the Peak & Lake District.


----------



## johnblack (31 Jan 2020)

Phaeton said:


> Although I sort of agree with you, these are visitors to the UK, therefore your sedimentary pattern is unlikely to be correct, visitors move around a lot more, for instance the biggest tourist attraction for Chinese visitors is the Peak & Lake District.


..and most bizarrely, Bicester Village!


----------



## Blue Hills (31 Jan 2020)

t


Phaeton said:


> We have quite a large contingent of Chinese students in Sheffield especially behind the Cathedral where lots of the office blocks have been converted into 'luxury' flats, it's not uncommon to see them walking around with face masks, even well before this outbreak.



Yes, i wondered about that.

Some sort of cultural thing?


----------



## Mugshot (31 Jan 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> The cheap masks will offer next to no protection to a virus such as this.Maybe more to someone who doesn't want to pass it on they'd be of use.


They may help, take precautions.


----------



## Adam4868 (31 Jan 2020)

Mugshot said:


> They may help, take precautions.
> 
> View attachment 502719


How come I havent that emoji on my phone.....lol


----------



## Beebo (31 Jan 2020)

Do you think the NHS will seek to recover the treatment costs from their travel insurance?

the specialist treatment costs will be huge.


----------



## midlife (31 Jan 2020)

Saw the coaches leaving Brize Norton on the News..... Bus drivers in normal clothing and no masks. Official in full haz gear next to the driver. 

I wonder if the drivers are on double time / danger money


----------



## Mugshot (31 Jan 2020)

midlife said:


> Saw the coaches leaving Brize Norton on the News..... Bus drivers in normal clothing and no masks. Official in full haz gear next to the driver.
> 
> I wonder if the drivers are on double time / danger money



View: https://twitter.com/mnrrntt/status/1223331105421524992?s=20


----------



## RoadRider400 (31 Jan 2020)

Beebo said:


> they are both from the same family, *so it hasn’t spread far yet.*


You absolutey cannot make that assumption. Yes they are from the same family but for all we know one of them might have been in close proximity with somebody from the other end of the country in the area for work . This person could in turn be infected without knowing it and now be spreading it even further.
If we dont have at least ten confirmed cases by this time next week I will be extremely surprised.


----------



## nickyboy (31 Jan 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> t
> 
> Yes, i wondered about that.
> 
> Some sort of cultural thing?


No. Asian people wear surgical masks if they are suffering from a cold so as to reduce transmission. It's about being considerate to others


----------



## Blue Hills (31 Jan 2020)

nickyboy said:


> No. Asian people wear surgical masks if they are suffering from a cold so as to reduce transmission. It's about being considerate to others


Thanks for the info.
It confirms that it is a cultural thing, so don't quite understand the "no".


----------



## Pale Rider (1 Feb 2020)

midlife said:


> Saw the coaches leaving Brize Norton on the News..... Bus drivers in normal clothing and no masks. Official in full haz gear next to the driver.
> 
> I wonder if the drivers are on double time / danger money



The thinking is no protection is needed if you keep more than two metres away from a possibly infected person.

The BBC reported the passengers were shown towards the back of the bus.

Chances are they were loaded, the first couple of rows of seats were left vacant, and the driver was the last to board.

Driving in a hazard suit would probably be regarded as unsafe.


----------



## Fab Foodie (1 Feb 2020)

johnblack said:


> ..and most bizarrely, Bicester Village!


...always worth avoiding if you have any sense....


----------



## midlife (1 Feb 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The thinking is no protection is needed if you keep more than two metres away from a possibly infected person.
> 
> The BBC reported the passengers were shown towards the back of the bus.
> 
> ...



Not sure I'd be able to avoid fomites as the driver.

Edit. In the news that 5 bus drivers will spend 2 weeks at home in isolation.


----------



## keithmac (1 Feb 2020)

Bit and pieces but the two in York were all over the University apparently.. 

I THINK they are confirmed cases but can't be sure.


----------



## Julia9054 (1 Feb 2020)

midlife said:


> Not sure I'd be able to avoid fomites as the driver.
> 
> Edit. In the news that 5 bus drivers will spend 2 weeks at home in isolation.


Which is a contradiction if the bus drivers happen to have families they live with


----------



## MontyVeda (1 Feb 2020)

Phaeton said:


> We have quite a large contingent of Chinese students in Sheffield especially behind the Cathedral where lots of the office blocks have been converted into 'luxury' flats, it's not uncommon to see them walking around with face masks, even well before this outbreak.
> ...


Same up here in Lancaster... it's not uncommon to see some SE Asian students (I presume) to wear a face mask. I think it's more to do with city living and protection from exhaust fumes rather than fear of virus.


----------



## Smokin Joe (1 Feb 2020)

To quote a doctor who posts on another forum -

"Death toll now 259.

649,741 more and it will match the annual Flu death toll.

999,741 more and it will match malaria's."


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (1 Feb 2020)

Bleedin' World Health Organisation, what would they know about anyfink?


----------



## nickyboy (1 Feb 2020)

To give a sense of perspective on how this is impacting the centre of the outbreak. Here is a photo of florist in Wuhan offering funeral flowers on an "honour" system as they are closed. Scan the QR code to pay


----------



## glasgowcyclist (1 Feb 2020)

Mugshot said:


> View: https://twitter.com/mnrrntt/status/1223331105421524992?s=20




Wait a minute...

Those coaches say Horseman on the side.
And there’s FOUR OF THEM!


----------



## RoadRider400 (2 Feb 2020)

@greenmark

Yes I agree the economies around the world could take a hit. Governments have a fine line to tread between maintaining stable economies but also ensuring public health is looked after. Any truth in the rumour that the medical union in Hong Kong is considering strike action if the government doesnt close the borders? Read about it but not sure if its accurate at all.


----------



## greenmark (2 Feb 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> @greenmark
> 
> Yes I agree the economies around the world could take a hit. Governments have a fine line to tread between maintaining stable economies but also ensuring public health is looked after. Any truth in the rumour that the medical union in Hong Kong is considering strike action if the government doesnt close the borders? Read about it but not sure if its accurate at all.



Strike action has been confirmed by one union that makes up about 10% of nurses. 
97% called in to strike, demanding closure of the border, guarantees of face masks. They're walking out tomorrow for the rest of the week.

The reasoning is that they don't want Hong Kong isolated from the rest of the world. The US, Italian and Filipino governments have already banned entry from people living in Hong Kong, as did the Vietnamese although they've rescinded that.

It really doesn't help that the HK government lost pretty much all legitimacy last year, so no one trusts them to have HKers' best interests at heart.


----------



## cookiemonster (3 Feb 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> @greenmark
> 
> Yes I agree the economies around the world could take a hit. Governments have a fine line to tread between maintaining stable economies but also ensuring public health is looked after. Any truth in the rumour that the medical union in Hong Kong is considering strike action if the government doesnt close the borders? Read about it but not sure if its accurate at all.



Yup, it's true starting today. Some will strike then more will join as the week goes on. Just a shame that a section if HK society feel the need to politicise this for their own ends. Already, nurses have been phoning in sick rather than treat the patients that are ill. So what's the point of being a nurse then?


----------



## Phaeton (3 Feb 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> So what's the point of being a nurse then?


I think that's a bit harsh, do you know the circumstances & situation that the nurses find themselves working in? Are they being given he protective clothing they require to be able to deal with these people safely? Are you expecting them to blindly put their own lives in danger to try to save somebody else?


----------



## cookiemonster (3 Feb 2020)

Phaeton said:


> I think that's a bit harsh, do you know the circumstances & situation that the nurses find themselves working in? Are they being given he protective clothing they require to be able to deal with these people safely? Are you expecting them to blindly put their own lives in danger to try to save somebody else?



From what I’ve seen in the SCMP, they have full protection as you would expect in these cases. If they had no proper protection then, yes, I would agree with them.


----------



## Levo-Lon (5 Feb 2020)

I popped into screwfix yesterday for bits and Bob's.
Few people in the store at the counter.
Old fella comes in ,very chatty ..
Anyone know how to switch Bluetooth on on one of these new phones ??
Guy takes his phone and has a quick look..
It's on already he tells him..
I cant connect to the car he says.

Guy says switch Bluetooth on and off and it should connect...

How do I do that old fella asks.
So again the younger guy drags and drops down menu and shows him..

Old fella says sorry the screens filthy and then Licks it  The rest of us in the store just start laughing, and someone said hey look its Corona Man 

What hope have we


----------



## nickyboy (6 Feb 2020)

My friends in HK are saying that the real PRC infection numbers are far higher than officially reported. These are sophisticated and we'll connected individuals

My friends in PRC remain effectively self quarantining in cities far from Hubei. Only going outside for essentials. They have been stuck in their apartments for two weeks. It is possible to buy things online via taobao (the Chinese Amazon) and food delivery like Deliveroo. Otherwise shops and restaurants remain closed. Supermarkets and meat and vegetable markets are open and are extremely busy as everybody is eating at home


----------



## Beebo (6 Feb 2020)

I know it isn’t life and death, but the Olympic committee are already worried about the Tokyo games this summer and F1 has to make a decision about the Chinese Grand Prix in April.

rescheduling the Olympics would be a huge undertaking, but I suppose they have to be alive to all eventualities.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Feb 2020)

Will this be as bad as .........well something really bad ?


----------



## greenmark (7 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Will this be as bad as .........well something really bad ?



Well, it still has the potential to be really bad.

For new infections, it is likely that the totals in China are highly under-reported because there is a capacity issue on how many tests can be done. People in China with mild symptoms are being turned away.
If this is true, then it is difficult to assess if this will break out further. The good news is that mortality rates are likely to be much lower.

IMHO for a fit individual, the biggest risks come from panic buying and fear of supply chain disruptions.


----------



## RoadRider400 (7 Feb 2020)

greenmark said:


> Well, it still has the potential to be really bad.
> 
> For new infections, it is likely that the totals in China are highly under-reported because there is a capacity issue on how many tests can be done. People in China with mild symptoms are being turned away.
> If this is true, then it is difficult to assess if this will break out further. The good news is that mortality rates are likely to be much lower.
> ...



In addition to supply chain issues we should be mindful that Asia produce half the worlds plastics, or so I believe. Of that China make the biggest portion. There could be issues of getting products into packaging if China continue to have to quarantine large groups of people. However we could see this as an opportunity for the world upscale the use of alternatives. Plastic is horrible stuff. Every cloud and all that.


----------



## Phaeton (7 Feb 2020)

The 34 year old doctor who the Chinese arrested for speaking out & bringing attention to the issue has died, so it's not only the old & frail it's striking down.


----------



## Beebo (7 Feb 2020)

No reports from Africa yet.
My suspicion is that there has to be cases in Africa going unreported, as China has loads of business interests there.


----------



## nickyboy (7 Feb 2020)

Beebo said:


> No reports from Africa yet.
> My suspicion is that there has to be cases in Africa going unreported, as China has loads of business interests there.


Correct, and generally African countries don't have the healthcare systems to cope with something like this

I was chatting again to friends in HK this morning. Now remember that they had virtually no cases two weeks ago. Their view now is that the virus is in HK and they have to ride it out. Panic buying means that basic stuff like noodles is sold out. Can't buy decent masks. They strongly urged me to buy masks in case UK goes in same direction, so I did this morning. £2 insurance policy


----------



## Phaeton (7 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> They strongly urged me to buy masks in case UK goes in same direction, so I did this morning. £2 insurance policy


Has there been any official announcement of what is a suitable mask? I know Screwfix are now restricting people to 5 mask each, have they appeared on Fleecebay yet?


----------



## numbnuts (7 Feb 2020)

Phaeton said:


> Has there been any official announcement of what is a suitable mask? I know Screwfix are now restricting people to 5 mask each, have they appeared on Fleecebay yet?


N95


----------



## Phaeton (7 Feb 2020)

numbnuts said:


> N95


You have to travel on a German autobahn??


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (7 Feb 2020)

Construction industry nervously looking at steel supplies from China at the moment, especially finished products such as screws, nails, bolts etc.


----------



## Fab Foodie (7 Feb 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Construction industry nervously looking at steel supplies from China at the moment, especially finished products such as screws, nails, bolts etc.


Maybe there’s a lesson here....


----------



## Phaeton (7 Feb 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Maybe there’s a lesson here....


I don't think it's just the construction industry, another 6-8 weeks when all the existing containers that were already at sea have docked, unloaded & used with none following.


----------



## Fab Foodie (7 Feb 2020)

Phaeton said:


> I don't think it's just the construction industry, another 6-8 weeks when all the existing containers that were already at sea have docked, unloaded & used with none following.


Indeed, more lessons for industry and consumers alike! Cheap has a price....


----------



## nickyboy (7 Feb 2020)

Phaeton said:


> I don't think it's just the construction industry, another 6-8 weeks when all the existing containers that were already at sea have docked, unloaded & used with none following.


Friends in PRC should have returned to work on Feb 3. They've been told it will be the week after next, the 17th. But they think this is wildly optimistic. Everyone I know is sitting in their apartments, afraid to go outside


----------



## numbnuts (7 Feb 2020)

Phaeton said:


> You have to travel on a German autobahn??


*Can an N95 face mask protect you from catching the new coronavirus?
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...rotect-you-from-catching-the-new-coronavirus/*


----------



## fossyant (7 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Can't buy decent masks. They strongly urged me to buy masks in case UK goes in same direction, so I did this morning. £2 insurance policy



Should it come here we'd be fubared. The 'Catch it bin it' posters have gone up in all the toilets here. Shame as we could have done with this since October as the numbers of staff/students with flu/lingering coughs and various viruses has been insane. I've had it twice, and it's still like wild fire here. Runny nose at present. Person next to me only came back to work yesterday after a week off with flu. 

The standard winter bugs have been a big issue at work - some folk have been very poorly - virus upon virus and infections - the girl on the other side of me has had major issues, very poorly indeed - got ill, then eye infection, then another infection, then exhausted... blood tests the lot. She's still on a phased return.


----------



## Fab Foodie (7 Feb 2020)

I’m all cut-up about this....

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...avirus-hong-kong-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (7 Feb 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I’m all cut-up about this....
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/busines...avirus-hong-kong-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other



I'm seeing a gap in the market here for Burberry face masks


----------



## Julia9054 (7 Feb 2020)

We have put hygiene posters up in school and sent an email to parents.
One of my year 10 pupils said “Miss, that email said you have to come to school even if you get the corona virus“
This is what it actually said


----------



## fossyant (7 Feb 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm seeing a gap in the market here for Burberry face masks



Slight issue, the factories are all out of action should you need to explore the 'cheap copies' option.


----------



## kingrollo (7 Feb 2020)

We're all doomed - even Trump can't save us


----------



## PaulSB (10 Feb 2020)

I'm waiting for the thread about people with the disgustingly unhygienic habit of using public toilets and leaving without washing their hands.

A far greater threat to all of us than Coronavirus.


----------



## kingrollo (10 Feb 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I'm waiting for the thread about people with the disgustingly unhygienic habit of using public toilets and leaving without washing their hands.
> 
> A far greater threat to all of us than Coronavirus.


How so ?


----------



## PaulSB (11 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> How so ?


Because every day we mingle with people whose personal hygiene methods leave a lot to be desired.

Eight people in the UK are infected. Five had direct contact. The chances of getting Coronavirus are virtually zero and far lower than the possibility of picking up a bug from someone who doesn't wash their hands properly.


----------



## Levo-Lon (11 Feb 2020)

Lady at work has a cold, she hopes it's not coronavirus, need to check the symptoms......I asked if she'd been to China?
No ...been on a plane? No.. I think you have a cold then..

Wankersitis


----------



## RoadRider400 (11 Feb 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I'm waiting for the thread about people with the disgustingly unhygienic habit of using public toilets and leaving without washing their hands.
> 
> A far greater threat to all of us than Coronavirus.



Probably a hell of a lot more germs on public toilet taps than most people.
A number 2 always needs a thorough handwash, a number 1 and it depends on the place. Would rather use my own hand sanitiser.


----------



## PaulSB (11 Feb 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Probably a hell of a lot more germs on public toilet taps than most people.
> A number 2 always needs a thorough handwash, a number 1 and it depends on the place. Would rather use my own hand sanitiser.



This is what I do as a matter of routine in public areas. Wash hands and sanitise after leaving the toilets.

I'm travelling in Cambodia and Vietnam at present. In a hotel toilet while I washed my hands a Chinese man wearing a face mask left a cubicle and the toilets without washing. I followed him to the breakfast restaurant where he went directly to pick up the communal coffee jug. There were probably 80 people in the restaurant.

His level of ignorance was astonishing. It's no wonder such viruses spread rapidly wherever they occur.


----------



## kingrollo (11 Feb 2020)

PaulSB said:


> Because every day we mingle with people whose personal hygiene methods leave a lot to be desired.
> 
> Eight people in the UK are infected. Five had direct contact. The chances of getting Coronavirus are virtually zero and far lower than the possibility of picking up a bug from someone who doesn't wash their hands properly.


Totally agree - I work in hospital so good hygiene is ingrained.
Where I disagree that this is causing more fatalities than coronavirus over the next 12 months or so.


----------



## Blue Hills (11 Feb 2020)

PaulSB said:


> This is what I do as a matter of routine in public areas. Wash hands and sanitise after leaving the toilets.
> 
> I'm travelling in Cambodia and Vietnam at present. In a hotel toilet while I washed my hands a Chinese man wearing a face mask left a cubicle and the toilets without washing. I followed him to the breakfast restaurant where he went directly to pick up the communal coffee jug. There were probably 80 people in the restaurant.
> 
> His level of ignorance was astonishing. It's no wonder such viruses spread rapidly wherever they occur.


Fair points paul, but if you make a habit out of following guys out of toilets you may get a reputation.


----------



## marinyork (11 Feb 2020)

It is thought that the UK cases were from a super spreader who visited Wuhan and then spread it in France and the UK. They eventually contacted UK health authorities after it was too late. Some think they passed it onto 12 people.

On a contrasting note signs have been up at university for over two weeks. It's just no one will pay any attention to them.


----------



## kingrollo (11 Feb 2020)

The only thing I believe is that so little is known about this virus - I guess we will get to know more if, as expected it gets in grip in the UK over the coming months.


----------



## fossyant (11 Feb 2020)

PaulSB said:


> Because every day we mingle with people whose personal hygiene methods leave a lot to be desired.
> 
> Eight people in the UK are infected. Five had direct contact. The chances of getting Coronavirus are virtually zero and far lower than the possibility of picking up a bug from someone who doesn't wash their hands properly.



It's lucky I'm still alive working at a University. Some disgusting folk about, staff and students. Two bouts of nasty illness since October means I'm getting jabs next year.


----------



## fossyant (11 Feb 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Fair points paul, but if you make a habit out of following guys out of toilets you may get a reputation.



You don't have to follow folk, the door closing seconds after the sound of toilet use is a clue.


----------



## BoldonLad (11 Feb 2020)

midlife said:


> Saw the coaches leaving Brize Norton on the News..... Bus drivers in normal clothing and no masks. Official in full haz gear next to the driver.
> 
> I wonder if the drivers are on double time / danger money


No, just expendable


----------



## Rocky (11 Feb 2020)

PaulSB said:


> Because every day we mingle with people whose personal hygiene methods leave a lot to be desired.
> 
> Eight people in the UK are infected. Five had direct contact. The chances of getting Coronavirus are virtually zero and far lower than the possibility of picking up a bug from someone who doesn't wash their hands properly.


The coronavirus can be transmitted as a result of poor handwashing hygiene (we pick up the virus from a surface and then touch our mouths/eyes where we get infected). So your advice is good advice.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Feb 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> We have put hygiene posters up in school and sent an email to parents.
> One of my year 10 pupils said “Miss, that email said you have to come to school even if you get the corona virus“
> This is what it actually said
> View attachment 503584



You can see how that could be interpreted as continue to come to school even if you’ve caught Corona virus. Definitely could have been better phrased.


----------



## Julia9054 (11 Feb 2020)

fossyant said:


> It's lucky I'm still alive working at a University. Some disgusting folk about, staff and students. Two bouts of nasty illness since October means I'm getting jabs next year.


Having worked in the same school for 16 years and having been exposed to all the local viruses, I have the immune system of an ox!


----------



## kingrollo (11 Feb 2020)

Don't what the NHS is playing at - they haven't even got a leaflet to hand out yet. We don't need anti virals and vaccinations - we need leaflets !!!!


----------



## PaulSB (11 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Totally agree - I work in hospital so good hygiene is ingrained.
> Where I disagree that this is causing more fatalities than coronavirus over the next 12 months or so.


I agree re fatalities. My point, possibly not made well, was one has more chance of catching many infections because of poor hand hygiene than Coronavirus.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Feb 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Having worked in the same school for 16 years and having been exposed to all the local viruses, I have the immune system of an ox!



Just remember Ox tail and soup. It didn't end well.


----------



## numbnuts (11 Feb 2020)

Just been renamed to Covid19


----------



## Profpointy (11 Feb 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> We have put hygiene posters up in school and sent an email to parents.
> One of my year 10 pupils said “Miss, that email said you have to come to school even if you get the corona virus“
> This is what it actually said
> View attachment 503584



To be fair to the kid, the memo could have been better worded


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Feb 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> No, just expendable



Could be the new film in the Expendables franchise staring Sylvester Stallone.


----------



## Julia9054 (11 Feb 2020)

Graffitied class poster.
Wasn’t me - but I wish I’d thought of it!


----------



## numbnuts (12 Feb 2020)

First case from London


----------



## midlife (12 Feb 2020)

Last think I heard was that two prisoners were tested and found negative. Have you a link?


----------



## Fab Foodie (12 Feb 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> We have put hygiene posters up in school and sent an email to parents.
> One of my year 10 pupils said “Miss, that email said you have to come to school even if you get the corona virus“
> This is what it actually said
> View attachment 503584


I blame the teachers....


----------



## midlife (12 Feb 2020)

Ah, London.... 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51481469


----------



## Blue Hills (12 Feb 2020)

midlife said:


> Ah, London....
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51481469


Don't know if there's any angle to your post.

Inevitable that someone would "come down" with it, however serious the effects turn out to be, in London.

Bye the bye, how long before it's dubbed "the valentine's day killer"? 

Kissing and hugging apparently best avoided and more of a threat than the odd sneeze.

Always possible of course that some folk might desert the tube in favour of cycling.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Feb 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Don't know if there's any angle to your post.
> 
> Inevitable that someone would "come down" with it, however serious the effects turn out to be, in London.
> 
> ...


Difficult choice, catch Coronavirus, or, be squashed by an HGV


----------



## midlife (12 Feb 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Don't know if there's any angle to your post.
> 
> Inevitable that someone would "come down" with it, however serious the effects turn out to be, in London.
> 
> ...



See post 177 and 178, I was waiting for a link but then found one.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Feb 2020)

A colleague of my wife called it the Coroner virus. I‘d say catching the Coroner virus doesn’t have a good outlook.


----------



## Landsurfer (12 Feb 2020)

Gosh ... the virus hits london village .... sod the rest of us ..... we could be contaminated with a variant of mild flu ...... disaster .!!!!

So .... < 1% of those that contract it die.... thank god it's not FLU ....... that killer of over 10,000 people every year in the UK .....

And Breath ............ well, not through a pointless mask of course .....


----------



## dodgy (12 Feb 2020)

Yes.....................Wow....................................etc.

Thought..........I'd.................join........in.

No idea what your point is, though 🤷‍♂️


----------



## Landsurfer (12 Feb 2020)

The point ... all though not based on evidence .. just listening to the Today programme and reading the Grauniad is that we are being assaulted by a flu virus ....


----------



## Milzy (12 Feb 2020)

Evidence suggests that if you cycle 50+ miles a week your respiratory system won't succumb to the virus, at least not in a fatal way.


----------



## nickyboy (13 Feb 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Gosh ... the virus hits london village .... sod the rest of us ..... we could be contaminated with a variant of mild flu ...... disaster .!!!!
> 
> So .... < 1% of those that contract it die.... thank god it's not FLU ....... that killer of over 10,000 people every year in the UK .....
> 
> And Breath ............ well, not through a pointless mask of course .....


1. Individuals become infectious after D4, symptoms become apparent by D12, unlike common flu
2. R0 appears to be significantly higher than common flu
3. No vaccine and there won't be for several months, unlike common flu

Masks have limited but not zero efficacy. One of the most important results of wearing a mask is you don't touch your mouth and nose as much

What is the % chance of Coronavirus pandemic taking hold in UK? Low. But not zero


----------



## Blue Hills (13 Feb 2020)

One thing kinda puzzles me.
The authorities seem to be strongarm persuading folks to go into isolation facilities. If this thing scales up by just a small amount, and (however serious the thing proves to be) i tend to think it will be more than just a small amount, there is surely no way they can continue to do this? No way enough facilities or resources?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 Feb 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> If this thing scales up by just a small amount, and (however serious the thing proves to be) i tend to think it will be more than just a small amount, there is surely no way they can continue to do this? No way enough facilities or resources?



I guess that is precisely why they're trying to nip it in the bud.


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 Feb 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Gosh ... the virus hits london village .... sod the rest of us ..... we could be contaminated with a variant of mild flu ...... disaster .!!!!
> 
> So .... < 1% of those that contract it die.... thank god it's not FLU ....... that killer of over 10,000 people every year in the UK .....
> 
> And Breath ............ well, not through a pointless mask of course .....



Is that why your avatar is wearing a mask?


----------



## cookiemonster (13 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> 1. Individuals become infectious after D4, symptoms become apparent by D12, unlike common flu
> 2. R0 appears to be significantly higher than common flu
> 3. No vaccine and there won't be for several months, unlike common flu
> 
> ...



Virologists here have noticed that people can be infectious before showing any symptoms. The mortality rate is 2-3% whereas seasonal ‘flu is less than 1%.

All schools here staying shut ‘till March 16th. We’ve just kissed goodbye to a chunk of our summer hols so my trip back to Scotlandshire is off it seems.


----------



## kingrollo (13 Feb 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> One thing kinda puzzles me.
> The authorities seem to be strongarm persuading folks to go into isolation facilities. If this thing scales up by just a small amount, and (however serious the thing proves to be) i tend to think it will be more than just a small amount, there is surely no way they can continue to do this? No way enough facilities or resources?



Then it moves onto the next stage. Good hygiene etc -


----------



## Lullabelle (13 Feb 2020)

The Corona virus seems to be causing more havoc than Brexit, companies are struggling with import/exports.


----------



## vickster (13 Feb 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Virologists here have noticed that people can be infectious before showing any symptoms. The mortality rate is 2-3% whereas seasonal ‘flu is less than 1%.
> 
> All schools here staying shut ‘till March 16th. We’ve just kissed goodbye to a chunk of our summer hols so my trip back to Scotlandshire is off it seems.


What would the flu rate be without vaccination of high and at risk groups however (and plenty of other people too who choose to have the jab)?


----------



## raleighnut (13 Feb 2020)

No doubt the brexiteers will seize on that excuse with alacrity


----------



## vickster (13 Feb 2020)

Lullabelle said:


> The Corona virus seems to be causing more havoc than Brexit, companies are struggling with import/exports.


Might also be under discussion here
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/

My brother and a friend who work in head office retail have certainly been impacted by the shut down in China. Indeed, she said that one supplier has asked for masks and sanitiser to be sent over as there's none to buy in Shanghai


----------



## Dave7 (13 Feb 2020)

raleighnut said:


> No doubt the brexiteers will seize on that excuse with alacrity


Well you have to admit......its only since we left the eu that the uk has had cases of coronavirus. Maybe if we had stayed in........


----------



## twentysix by twentyfive (13 Feb 2020)

Brexit + Coronavirus 

We're doomed - doomed


----------



## PeteXXX (13 Feb 2020)

I've just received this text


----------



## flake99please (13 Feb 2020)

My nephew studies at a university in Edinburgh, where someone is currently being tested for Coronavirus. Concerning times for the family at the moment.


----------



## Levo-Lon (13 Feb 2020)

Riots,planes grounded, striking, but enough about France


----------



## Magpies (13 Feb 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Virologists here have noticed that people can be infectious before showing any symptoms. The mortality rate is 2-3% whereas seasonal ‘flu is less than 1%.



People with most kinds of respiratory viral infections (or even chickenpox) can be infectious before showing any symptoms.

It is surprisingly hard to estimate the true case-fatality ratio of rapidly spreading respiratory infections like influenza or the ongoing novel coronavirus outbreak. A substantial number who get the infection have mild or no symptoms, are never diagnosed, and are therefore not counted in the denominator of the ratio. 

Also, for seasonal influenza, the majority of deaths are in older individuals with pre-existing health conditions. It is not yet clear whether this is true for the new coronavirus. At least, there is no firm evidence yet that the coronavirus is mutating rapidly (unlike for example, the H5N1 avian 'flu virus), which seemed to quickly become increasingly severe after making its first "jump" from birds to humans.

Sensible precautions are fine, of course, but I wouldn't be too worried (at least yet).


----------



## pawl (13 Feb 2020)

twentysix by twentyfive said:


> Brexit + Coronavirus
> 
> We're doomed - doomed



Don’t panic,Don’t panic Mr Manering


----------



## Pat "5mph" (13 Feb 2020)

Mod note: merging with Coronavirus thread in news.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Feb 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> View attachment 504412
> 
> 
> I've just received this text



I’ve had two already basically saying stay away...


----------



## Blue Hills (14 Feb 2020)

Maybe a flippant idea but I can't help wondering if this advice to self isolate for two weeks might be, for some, a skivers' charter.


----------



## Blue Hills (14 Feb 2020)

On a maybe more serious note, I read the other day (quoting some medical bod I seem to remember) that the london tube wasn't a great problem.

But how can this be if the uber car someone went to hospital in is being deep cleaned?

And I gather similarly occupied ambulances are going to be?


----------



## kingrollo (14 Feb 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Mod note: merging with Coronavirus thread in news.



Merging or mutating ?


----------



## MontyVeda (14 Feb 2020)

twentysix by twentyfive said:


> Brexit + Coronavirus
> 
> *We're doomed - doomed*


= We're ?

Maths was never my strong point


----------



## twentysix by twentyfive (14 Feb 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> = We're ?
> 
> Maths was never my strong point


We're = We are. The apostrophe denotes the missing "a".

Here endeth the lesson


----------



## MontyVeda (14 Feb 2020)

twentysix by twentyfive said:


> We're = We are. The apostrophe denotes the missing "a".
> 
> Here endeth the lesson


not quite... I couldn't work out the answer to the first sum at all


----------



## twentysix by twentyfive (14 Feb 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> not quite... I couldn't work out the answer to the first sum at all


Love it


----------



## numbnuts (15 Feb 2020)

I wonder if there is any truth in this :-


> *Coronavirus bombshell: ‘REAL cause’ of outbreak claim - Chinese scientists break cover*


https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...oratory-scientists-wuhan-wet-market-bioweapon


----------



## Blue Hills (15 Feb 2020)

I'm not even going to open that.

The Express?


----------



## newfhouse (15 Feb 2020)

numbnuts said:


> I wonder if there is any truth in this :-
> 
> https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...oratory-scientists-wuhan-wet-market-bioweapon


It's what killed Princess Diana too.


----------



## nickyboy (15 Feb 2020)

Hmmm, a little closer to home now:

I work with a company in the bus industry and they attended the recent conference in London where someone with the virus also attended.

The MD tells me that one of his colleagues is now ill


----------



## MichaelW2 (16 Feb 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Just been renamed to Covid19


That will avoid the confusion.


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=nue8j_52M6Q


----------



## kingrollo (18 Feb 2020)

The guy and his wife who were posting video updates from the cruise ship have now tested positive for the virus.


----------



## MarkF (18 Feb 2020)

I work in the NHS and nobody has mentioned anything to me about any virus.


----------



## BoldonLad (18 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> The guy and his wife who were posting video updates from the cruise ship have now tested positive for the virus.


Yes, I had some sympathy for him at first, but, now that has moved on to boredom.


----------



## johnblack (18 Feb 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, I had some sympathy for him at first, but, now that has moved on to boredom.


Agreed, plus spot the difference....

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ritons-trapped-on-quarantined-cruise-11936886


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Feb 2020)

Several towns in the north of italy supposedly now in lockdown, folk can't leave. I must admit i can't really see that having any great effect, particularly as i know italy pretty well.
And surely won't be attempted here for all sorts of reasons, including a severe shortage of police and army?
Views?


----------



## Milzy (23 Feb 2020)

This virus will never stop now, luckily it will only take out the elderly and people with other underlying ailments.


----------



## BoldonLad (23 Feb 2020)

Milzy said:


> This virus will never stop now, *luckily* it will *only take out the elderly and people with other underlying ailments*.



73, Heart condition, and high BP. Yes, lucky is the word


----------



## Milzy (23 Feb 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> 73, Heart condition, and high BP. Yes, lucky is the word


Hope you Dodge it well. The spread is slow.


----------



## BoldonLad (23 Feb 2020)

Milzy said:


> Hope you Dodge it well. The spread is *slow*.



Thank you. Me too  but so am I (slow).


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Feb 2020)

View: https://imgur.com/a/G9119hM


----------



## Phaeton (23 Feb 2020)

Will the improved weather in the UK assist with people's ability to fight it?


----------



## midlife (23 Feb 2020)

Apparently the warmer weather means it’s survival time out of the body decreases.


----------



## Rocky (23 Feb 2020)

Milzy said:


> This virus will never stop now, luckily it will only take out the elderly and people with other underlying ailments.


Not lucky if you are one of the elderly or ill.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Feb 2020)

Milzy said:


> This virus will never stop now, luckily it will only take out the elderly and people with other underlying ailments.



Less Tory voters though so, every cloud and all that.


----------



## dodgy (23 Feb 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Less Tory voters though so, every cloud and all that.



Dark.


----------



## Phaeton (23 Feb 2020)

dodgy said:


> Dark.


Or pathetic


----------



## vickster (23 Feb 2020)

Milzy said:


> This virus will never stop now, luckily it will only take out the elderly and people with other underlying ailments.


Presumably, with a statement like that you are an expert in infectious diseases advising the WHO. Please share your knowledge with the concerned of the forum


----------



## Julia9054 (23 Feb 2020)

vickster said:


> Presumably, with a statement like that you are an expert in infectious diseases advising the WHO. Please share your knowledge with the concerned of the forum


It's a joke. As an "underlying ailments" person, I'm not offended.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (23 Feb 2020)

Milzy said:


> This virus will never stop now, luckily it will only take out the elderly and people with other underlying ailments.



Followed by cyclists who only go out in fair weather 😳


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Feb 2020)

Milzy said:


> This virus will never stop now, luckily it will only take out the elderly and people with other underlying ailments.



Any source for that?

I've noticed a couple of young healthy doctors in China have succumbed, so maybe it could be like Spanish flu, which actually seemed to be worse for young healthy types IIRC.

From wiki, age profile of deaths from Spanish flu:





https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/W_curve.png


----------



## RoadRider400 (23 Feb 2020)

Milzy said:


> This virus will never stop now, luckily it will only take out the elderly and people with other underlying ailments.


Asked it personally have you?


----------



## cookiemonster (24 Feb 2020)

Milzy said:


> This virus will never stop now, luckily it will only take out the elderly and people with other underlying ailments.




Luckily?


----------



## cookiemonster (24 Feb 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Any source for that?
> 
> I've noticed a couple of young healthy doctors in China have succumbed, so maybe it could be like Spanish flu, which actually seemed to be worse for young healthy types IIRC.
> 
> ...



With that outbreak, remember that there were no antibiotics then and it spread way faster due to people travelling on overcrowded and filthy troop ships as WW1 had just ended.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Feb 2020)

> Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. The virus in their simulation killed 65 million people.


https://futurism.com/neoscope/recent-simulation-coronavirus-killed-65-million-people

Those carrying out the simulation have been moved to write -



> To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic. We are not now predicting that the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people.


http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/


----------



## Levo-Lon (24 Feb 2020)

If headaches and migraine are symptoms ,I've had it since Wednesday..

Off to spread it around Aylesbury today...


----------



## kingrollo (24 Feb 2020)

Whats an underlying health condition ? - Asthma , ?


----------



## vickster (24 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Whats an underlying health condition ? - Asthma , ?


COPD, heart disease, heart failure, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, reduced immunity due to medication or a health condition such as kidney or liver disease or a malignancy...all manner of things can make you more susceptible to illness or opportunistic infection


----------



## greenmark (24 Feb 2020)

Some things I've learnt from almost ceaseless updates we pick up here:

- the death rate is not known. The current estimate figure of 2-3% is based on total deaths divided by cases diagnosed so far. However, there is a time lag between diagnosis and death, so as people increasingly die the mortality rate might increase . Conversely, there may be many undiagnosed because they are asymptomatic or who have had such mild symptoms they do not present themselves for diagnosis.
- Of those diagnosed, about 20% have become serious enough to require hospitalisation, including 5% who have been put in the ICU.
- So far the best laboratory of likely outcome is from the Diamond Princess, from which there were 691 diagnosed. They tested everyone on board, regardless of whether or not they had symptoms. About 50% who showed positive results were asyptomatic at the time they were tested.
- People are more likely to have contracted Covid if they are elderly or have weakened immunity - people with heart disease, undergoing cancer treatment, with diabetes or HIV. The most serious cases end up with viral pneumonia. The nature of viral pneumonia from Covid-19 seems to be no different than viral pneumonia from other sources (such as flu) - it's just that Covid makes it more likely to happen. Once you have viral pneumonia you should expect 30-40% mortality. Key mortality predictors once you have viral pneumonia are age (>60 years), low immunity, high blood pressure or a history of smoking.
- it is viral. Antibiotics are of limited help, apart from keeping opportunistic bacteria from infecting weakened lungs during the viral pneumonia
- There seems to be low contagion and fatality among children.
- Having said that, fit young people have succumbed.
- Even if it is now impossible to contain this from a pandemic, it is important to reduce the rate of transmission as much as possible. This will help public health is not overloaded. It also gives time for vaccine and/or treatment development.
- More and less serious strains will evolve. The less serious ones will be more likely to disperse as people tend to self-isolate when they can't leave bed. So over time (who knows how long), theoretically this will become no more dangerous than flu or the cold.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Feb 2020)

vickster said:


> COPD, heart disease, heart failure, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, reduced immunity due to medication or a health condition such as kidney or liver disease or a malignancy...all manner of things can make you more susceptible to illness or opportunistic infection



Well I am borderline COPD with a Heart murmur ! - 

I wouldn't think it makes you more likely to catch it - you just don't deal with it as well !


----------



## vickster (24 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well I am borderline COPD with a Heart murmur ! -
> 
> I wouldn't think it makes you more likely to catch it - you just don't deal with it as well !


Speak to your doctor. Only really hygiene measures will stop you getting it as there's no vaccine. Assume you've had the flu jab at least


----------



## cookiemonster (24 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Whats an underlying health condition ? - Asthma , ?



Diabetes seems to be the main underlying health issue with victims.


----------



## fossyant (24 Feb 2020)

With this winter's coughing and flu illnesses, GP's were checking for 'worse' infections - I was sent for xray to rule out pneumonia, and my missus was straight onto anti-biotics.


----------



## Milzy (24 Feb 2020)

vickster said:


> COPD, heart disease, heart failure, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, reduced immunity due to medication or a health condition such as kidney or liver disease or a malignancy...all manner of things can make you more susceptible to illness or opportunistic infection


What I was going to put.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Feb 2020)

vickster said:


> Speak to your doctor. Only really hygiene measures will stop you getting it as there's no vaccine. Assume you've had the flu jab at least



I think you have said above what my GP would say.
My GP struggles to refer for conditions that have solutions ! - they are a bit bite shite to be honest. Have had flu jab.


----------



## vickster (24 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think you have said above what my GP would say.
> My GP struggles to refer for conditions that have solutions ! - they are a bit bite shite to be honest. Have had flu jab.


Change GP maybe.
Certainly Coronavirus is not something I have any concern about at present


----------



## kingrollo (24 Feb 2020)

vickster said:


> Change GP maybe.
> Certainly Coronavirus is not something I have any concern about at present



I think they are all much of muchness - the CCG controls the money and with procedure and with procedures of limited clinical value imposed by the CCG - I don't think another GP practice would be much different.

There is one GP in our practice who literally does his consultations in 90 seconds - he doesn't even look at you - he is on the PC getting the prescription as soon as you start speaking. ! Complained about him a couple of times - no one is interested though.


----------



## vickster (24 Feb 2020)

It’s not just about having money though, also about having a GP you can talk to and trust. Mine is great  I book the last appt of clinic and get as much time as needed (her other patients too as she is usually running very late which doesn’t bother me).

I’ve probably seen most of the other long standing GPs and nurses too. No complaints. Even the receptionists seem friendly


----------



## kingrollo (24 Feb 2020)

vickster said:


> It’s not just about having money though, also about having a GP you can talk to and trust. Mine is great



Thats good. 
But thats not my experience. My son once was needing his inhaler every minute - took him to see GP - who took sames inhaler from my son - held it in front of his face and told him take it twice every 4 hours.
I drove him straight to A+E who gave him steroid inhaler he was better within hours.


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> There is one GP in our practice who literally does his consultations in 90 seconds - he doesn't even look at you - he is on the PC getting the prescription as soon as you start speaking. ! Complained about him a couple of times - no one is interested though.


The wonders of targets and box ticking.

I got a letter a couple of years ago from my GPs about a routine kinda age related blood sample they needed. I assumed it would be done there by the nurse. Rolled up, waited to be called, went and sat in front of GP - he clicked a few keys and printed out a chit for me to trot off, make a separate appointment at a local blood testing place/hospital - then I was to trot along there and then return to GPs for the post test chat.

I played merry hell with him for wasting my time/the practice treating me like an idiot. Asked him why they couldn't just have posted me a notice to trot along to the blood place.

I asked if they had got "points"/credit for my totally pointless visit and he had to admit that they had.

(suppose the thing may have been a sly test as to whether I still had my marbles/basic assertiveness)


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Feb 2020)

Due to the Coronavirus outbreak in Italy, my thrip there tomorrow has just been cancelled by our customer.
In other news, our supply chain for certain chemicals is drying-up as most these days come from China


----------



## kingrollo (24 Feb 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> The wonders of targets and box ticking.
> 
> I got a letter a couple of years ago from my GPs about a routine kinda age related blood sample they needed. I assumed it would be done there by the nurse. Rolled up, waited to be called, went and sat in front of GP - he clicked a few keys and printed out a chit for me to trot off, make a separate appointment at a local blood testing place/hospital - then I was to trot along there and then return to GPs for the post test chat.
> 
> ...



Yup they bombard me with phone calls and letters to go for an ashtma check - even though I am under the care of respiratory consultant.

Even when did go for the check and my peak flow was 350 (should be 600) - they didn't want to refer me to a respiratory consultant. I said "what was the point of calling me in for check ? - you have found a problem but don' t want to do anything about." it was a further 5 visits before I got referred.

Basically the GP practice gets £75 for each Asthma check - but the CCG has to pay if I am referred on. total farce.


----------



## nickyboy (24 Feb 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Due to the Coronavirus outbreak in Italy, my thrip there tomorrow has just been cancelled by our customer.
> In other news, our supply chain for certain chemicals is drying-up as most these days come from China


The problem with the Italian outbreak was that, up until Friday, there were only two reported cases. By Sunday that had risen to 150 with three deaths. This means that the virus has been present in the Lombardy region for a considerable time (generally symptoms don't manifest until about D12 so those who have died must have contracted it at least a couple of weeks ago). During that two week period there was free travel throughout Italy and elsewhere in Europe so infected individuals will have travelled outside the main infected region. In the meantime there are dozens of flights every day between Milan and UK

I don't want to sound alarmist but there is a small but real chance this could be very serious indeed. As I have a couple of family member who would be considered "susceptible" we have bought masks (the supply of masks in UK is tiny and will run out very quickly) and am taking sensible precautions such as wearing gloves on the tube


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> and am taking sensible precautions such as wearing gloves on the tube



What sort of gloves?

I have read that it might be most likely to be spread by touching surfaces. Correct?

Aren't you outside London? If so, will you be wearing gloves on local public transport?


----------



## Low Gear Guy (24 Feb 2020)

You would need to wear gloves in all enclosed public spaces including cafes and supermarkets. Preventing the spread of disease at this point may be possible but would require a major army mobilization to enforce no movement zones.


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Feb 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> You would need to wear gloves in all enclosed public spaces including cafes and supermarkets. Preventing the spread of disease at this point may be possible but would require a major army mobilization to enforce no movement zones.


That's what I was thinking to be honest.

Very hard not to touch anything, door handles etc.

I was in a London museum the other day and did notice a chap using his elbow on a door handle - may have been in a toilet, can't remember.


----------



## Pale Rider (24 Feb 2020)

I wonder if gloves would be much help in avoiding the virus.

My understanding is it cannot live long on a hard surface.

The main transmission method is from droplets exhaled by coughs and sneezes.

I suppose you could get it if an infected person sneezed on a handrail and you grabbed the rail soon after.


----------



## greenmark (24 Feb 2020)

It is assumed that it transmits like other coronaviruses. There are four principal vectors for transmission:
- airborne via a cough or sneeze. The best bet is to stay at least 1.5m away from anyone that sneezes. If they've sneezed, it's too late.
- if they sneeze onto a surface, then the droplets will stay there for several hours. If you touch that surface then touch your eyes, mouth or nose then you can be susceptible. So wash your hands, regularly. Definitely before you prepare food or eat anything, including snacks.
- some coronavirus are spread through viral spray from flushing toilets. However this version does not often produce diaorrhea. However there is one confirmed case of faecal transmission in Hong Kong
- sharing utensils/food/cups.


Pale Rider said:


> I wonder if gloves would be much help in avoiding the virus.
> 
> My understanding is it cannot live long on a hard surface.
> 
> ...



The principal vector is if you pick it up on your hands and then touch your face. Gloves help this because they remind you not to touch your face. Same with face masks.
But just wash your hands. All the time. Soap and warm water. And keep away of anyone who is coughing or sneezing.


----------



## nickyboy (24 Feb 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I wonder if gloves would be much help in avoiding the virus.
> 
> My understanding is it cannot live long on a hard surface.
> 
> ...


Dead easy.....

Person with the virus coughs into their hand (nice and polite). Then puts hand on doorhandle etc. Virus is on doorhandle and viable for a significant period of time

Gloves are very effective as the glove wearer gets the virus on their gloves but the glovewearer doesn't then put the glove in their mouth/nose. Any gloves will do and there is the added benefit that you don't feel self conscious wearing them on, say the tube, whereas you would with a mask

I am also making sure that after I leave public toilets (after washing my hands) I am using my elbows to open doors. Also using knuckles on lift buttons is a good idea

Really the most effective way you can reduce the likelihood of catching it (other than changing your lifestyle) is to frequently wash hands, wear gloves in areas with large footfall and wear a mask (which isn't great to stop you inhaling the droplets but discourages you from putting your fingers in your mouth)


----------



## Phaeton (24 Feb 2020)

I have to go down to the Evil place on Wednesday, it will involve at least 3x 30 minute tube journeys, I'll be honest I'm not looking forward to it.


----------



## Glow worm (24 Feb 2020)

Phaeton said:


> I have to go down to the Evil place on Wednesday, it will involve at least 3x 30 minute tube journeys, I'll be honest I'm not looking forward to it.



Why not try the bike hire scheme there (unless you have a load of stuff with you of course).
I used it last time I went and it was great. If you have a phone- You just donwload an app - they ping you a 4 digit unlock code - when you get to the bike- enter the code and off you go. You never have to go near another tube train again.


----------



## Pale Rider (24 Feb 2020)

Phaeton said:


> I have to go down to the Evil place on Wednesday, it will involve at least 3x 30 minute tube journeys, I'll be honest I'm not looking forward to it.



The tube has always had a well deserved reputation for passing on infections.

Gloves won't do you a lot of good when you are close enough to the bloke hanging off the next strap to kiss him.

A mask might be a worthwhile precaution.


----------



## Beebo (24 Feb 2020)

The Ospreys amd Ulster have postponed their matches in Italy next week.
England Rugby team are playing in Rome on 14th March. 
if that games doesn’t go ahead then we know this is serious.


----------



## Adam4868 (24 Feb 2020)

Beebo said:


> The Ospreys amd Ulster have postponed their matches in Italy next week.
> England Rugby team are playing in Rome on 14th March.
> if that games doesn’t go ahead then we know this is serious.


Forget rugby...they might cancel some cycling races !

https://www.cyclingnews.com/amp/new...an-remo-says-vegni/?__twitter_impression=true


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## Phaeton (24 Feb 2020)

Beebo said:


> if that games doesn’t go ahead then we know this is serious.


I think we know that already, just wish that every Government would wake up & smell the roses


----------



## marinyork (24 Feb 2020)

Hard to verify, but current reports (I take an interest on what goes on in Italy) suggest that it's spread throughout northern Italy and parts of central Italy over the weekend and today in particular. The updates at the moment seem to parallel ones in Iran.


----------



## Dave7 (24 Feb 2020)

Milzy said:


> This virus will never stop now, luckily it will only take out the elderly and people with other underlying ailments.


Errhh I am 73. Why does that not make me feel lucky


----------



## fossyant (24 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Errhh I am 73. Why does that not make me feel lucky



Should it come to our shores in any great extent, I'm fairly sure I'll come into contact with the virus quickly with working at a Uni. We would need to be careful as my son is Type 1, although fit and healthy (we'd have to watch blood sugars over night), but this would finish off my MIL - she was rather poorly when the coughs went round at Christmas. - TBH, we all stayed away from her when we were all ill, but she picked up a virus anyway.


----------



## numbnuts (24 Feb 2020)

UK sends 650,000 gloves, wipes and gowns to China to fight Coronavirus crisis. Britain has sent more than 650,000 gloves, wipes and gowns to China as part of efforts to fight the Coronavirus crisis.
Yet the other day 
Dentists threatened by coronavirus face-mask shortage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51493492


----------



## Rocky (24 Feb 2020)

numbnuts said:


> UK sends 650,000 gloves, wipes and gowns to China to fight Coronavirus crisis. Britain has sent more than 650,000 gloves, wipes and gowns to China as part of efforts to fight the Coronavirus crisis.
> Yet the other day
> Dentists threatened by coronavirus face-mask shortage
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51493492


We don't need them as much as China does. It's a good Christian thing to help a colleague in need (parable of the Good Samaritan).

Plus, if we prevent it spreading in China, it is far less likely to impact here.


----------



## Rusty Nails (24 Feb 2020)

We were looking to book a week's holiday in Lake Garda in April.

My wife has decided there's no need for us to take the risk with northern Italy, and I must admit to being quite relieved.

Garda can wait, Cornwall here we come!


----------



## Milzy (24 Feb 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> We were looking to book a week's holiday in Lake Garda in April.
> 
> My wife has decided there's no need for us to take the risk with northern Italy, and I must admit to being quite relieved.
> 
> Garda can wait, Cornwall here we come!


Love Cornwall, you can't go wrong!


----------



## nickyboy (24 Feb 2020)

numbnuts said:


> UK sends 650,000 gloves, wipes and gowns to China to fight Coronavirus crisis. Britain has sent more than 650,000 gloves, wipes and gowns to China as part of efforts to fight the Coronavirus crisis.
> Yet the other day
> Dentists threatened by coronavirus face-mask shortage
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51493492


China has had more than 70,000 cases and more than 2,000 deaths and these numbers are increasing every day. It is incredibly short of essentials that help to minimise this increase 

And you're thinking we should hang onto the masks so that UK dentists don't run out?

Aren't people dying in China more important than getting a scale and polish here?


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Feb 2020)

Anyone any idea why italy seems so high on the scale?
I rather doubt it's due much to what some italian bloke said on channel 4 news, that they are are a "florid" (his phrase,) folk who touch kiss hug more than other folks.
Still waiting for more info on nickyboy's tube gloves.


----------



## nickyboy (24 Feb 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Anyone any idea why italy seems so high on the scale?
> I rather doubt it's due much to what some italian bloke said on channel 4 news, that they are are a "florid" (his phrase,) folk who touch kiss hug more than other folks.
> Still waiting for more info on nickyboy's tube gloves.


Dunno why Italy. The Lombardy region has the strongest commercial ties in Italy with China but no more so than Germany or France. There must be something. Like the S Korean church. I was chatting with friends in SK and they told me the SK church has a sister church in.....Wuhan. 

Re gloves, any normal gloves will do. The main reason for wearing them is to stop you touching your mouth with your fingers. Mrs N is off to London on Sunday and she will just wear regular gloves on the tube.


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> ....and am taking sensible precautions such as wearing gloves on the tube


Is it that cold?


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Dunno why Italy. The Lombardy region has the strongest commercial ties in Italy with China but no more so than Germany or France. There must be something. Like the S Korean church. I was chatting with friends in SK and they told me the SK church has a sister church in.....Wuhan.
> 
> Re gloves, any normal gloves will do. The main reason for wearing them is to stop you touching your mouth with your fingers. Mrs N is off to London on Sunday and she will just wear regular gloves on the tube.


I had to wear boxing gloves at night when I was at private school...can’t remember why now....


----------



## pawl (24 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Errhh I am 73. Why does that not make me feel





Milzy said:


> This virus will never stop now, luckily it will only take out the elderly and people with other underlying ailments.




Charming.At 79 I must be close to the top of your list.Ageist?


----------



## kingrollo (24 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> China has had more than 70,000 cases and more than 2,000 deaths and these numbers are increasing every day. It is incredibly short of essentials that help to minimise this increase
> 
> And you're thinking we should hang onto the masks so that UK dentists don't run out?
> 
> Aren't people dying in China more important than getting a scale and polish here?


Remainer !!!!!! Get Him !!!!


----------



## cookiemonster (25 Feb 2020)

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...ong-kong-school-closures-extend-beyond-easter

Bloody 'ell. I'm bored as it is. More time in the gym I think.

*edit* schools shut until 20/4. That's a 3 month shutdown.


----------



## fossyant (25 Feb 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...ong-kong-school-closures-extend-beyond-easter
> 
> Bloody 'ell. I'm bored as it is. More time in the gym I think.
> 
> *edit* schools shut until 20/4. That's a 3 month shutdown.



Daft question, but do you get paid whilst on 'shut down'. I can see this being a issue in the UK should anything develop over here !


----------



## cookiemonster (25 Feb 2020)

fossyant said:


> Daft question, but do you get paid whilst on 'shut down'. I can see this being a issue in the UK should anything develop over here !



I am still getting paid while on shutdown, doing online stuff with some of the kids, so I am still working but not as much as usual.


----------



## BoldonLad (25 Feb 2020)

vickster said:


> COPD, *heart disease*, heart failure, *cardiovascular disease*, diabetes, reduced immunity due to medication or a health condition such as *kidney or liver disease* or a malignancy...all manner of things can make you more susceptible to illness or opportunistic infection



I may as well say goodbye now, it was nice knowing you all


----------



## Dave7 (25 Feb 2020)

Our neighbour is Italian. Guess where he is this week? Right where the outbreak is.
Twitchy bum time around here


----------



## Blue Hills (25 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Our neighbour is Italian. Guess where he is this week? Right where the outbreak is.
> Twitchy bum time around here


Not in one if the closed towns i assume.
You reckon he will self isolate if he has any symptoms on returning?


----------



## Blue Hills (25 Feb 2020)

Just seen a bit on recommended practices if you are self isolating and share accommodation. Not sure i can see folk managing to stick to the practice. A massive massive number of folk share houses in london.


----------



## vickster (25 Feb 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Just seen a bit on recommended practices if you are self isolating and share accommodation. Not sure i can see folk managing to stick to the practice. A massive massive number of folk share houses in london.


And elsewhere...families


----------



## Dave7 (25 Feb 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Not in one if the closed towns i assume.
> You reckon he will self isolate if he has any symptoms on returning?


TBH I only know he is in the 'area' but not which town.
He is a nice, level headed guy. A bus driver just to complicate things.


----------



## Blue Hills (25 Feb 2020)

vickster said:


> And elsewhere...families


well yes of course.
But a very big feature of london is lots of young (and these days not so young) single folk living cheek by jowl - the self isolating thing might be rather harder for them to pull off.
Lots of those folk will doubtless be travelling internationally.
And have foreign links.
With that and the tube I can see it spreading like wildfire in london very soon.
How many die of it another matter of course. Am not making any predictions on that.


----------



## geocycle (25 Feb 2020)

Anyone bought a turbo trainer just in case?


----------



## kingrollo (25 Feb 2020)

geocycle said:


> Anyone bought a turbo trainer just in case?


No new toothbrush though.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Feb 2020)

Working on my anti CV diet:-

2 cloves of garlic before bed

3 oranges daily

1.chopped kiwi fruit

Lots of water

Covering my genitals in marmite.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (25 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Working on my anti CV diet:-
> 
> 2 cloves of garlic before bed
> 
> ...



Are you planning on becoming a hermit as well?


----------



## burntoutbanger (25 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Working on my anti CV diet:-
> 
> 2 cloves of garlic before bed
> 
> ...



To be fair, you've been doing that last one for ages.


----------



## Dave7 (25 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Covering my genitals in marmite.


I did that for years before I found out that MrsD had actually told me she loved the taste of marmalade. I got my hearing aid shortly after that.


----------



## AndyRM (25 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> I did that for years before I found out that MrsD had actually told me she loved the taste of marmalade. I got my hearing aid shortly after that.



*Passes coat*


----------



## kingrollo (25 Feb 2020)

burntoutbanger said:


> To be fair, you've been doing that last one for ages.


Read it in the daily mail must be true.
(How many of the deceased had marmite there ......0 .....proof)


----------



## Levo-Lon (26 Feb 2020)

So we know you can't contain this virus, we'll there's a suprise..

Head teacher closes school, so be prepared for full panic school shutdown.
Headless chicken season begins...

Why don't we just accept that these things can't be controlled and just get on with it,and let it run it's course.


----------



## kingrollo (26 Feb 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> So we know you can't contain this virus, we'll there's a suprise..
> 
> Head teacher closes school, so be prepared for full panic school shutdown.
> Headless chicken season begins...
> ...



Because lots of people will die.


----------



## Drago (26 Feb 2020)

This one is no laughing matter. Today it's been announced ched that it's in Austria, Switzerland and Estonia, easy EU cross border travel facilitation its spread from Italy (not starting an EU debate, that's just what the newsies are saying).

Like it or not it probably won't be long until it's properly at large on our shores. So, here's a thread to track its progress, discuss any science related to it, discuss preparations and precautions, and to show solidarity with any of the CC brother or sisterhood that go down with it.


----------



## Mo1959 (26 Feb 2020)

I'm glad I no longer work and have limited contact with other people these days.


----------



## Levo-Lon (26 Feb 2020)

Let it run its course, it's a virus, but I'm sure we'll manage to have total meltdown as we have a death or 2.

Flu is happily killing at will ...as is lots of other things.


Be interesting when people are being denied income from shut downs here...do we riot? Or starve


----------



## Mugshot (26 Feb 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Let it run its course, it's a virus, but I'm sure we'll manage to have total meltdown as we have a death or 2.
> 
> Flu is happily killing at will ...as is lots of other things.
> 
> ...


Isn't the rate of spread and the % of deaths a little more alarming than flu?


----------



## Dave7 (26 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Because lots of people will die.


Serious question. Do you think less people will die if we (seemingly) pointlessly 'try' to control it ?
I may be wrong and I sincerely hope I am but this looks like its going to run its course whatever we do.


----------



## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

geocycle said:


> Anyone bought a turbo trainer just in case?



Just sneak out on your MTB at midnight off road, no road blocks ! 

Re turbo trainers and Zwift, you have heard of 'computer viruses', you know - not even safe on Zwift. 👅


----------



## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

A few schools have shut of Cheshire because of trips skiing. Oh great. That means parent's having to take time off work too, just in case.


----------



## Dave7 (26 Feb 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I'm glad I no longer work and have limited contact with other people these days.


But but but (theres always a but.
My Italian neighbour in at present on holiday where the outbreak is.
My son in law works with/for a guy who's daughter has been sent home from school as she and her year have just come back from a skiing holiday in that area.
If if if eg the daughter has already passed to all 6 in her family and her Dad has passed it to my SiL etc etc.
Face it Mrs Mainwaring we're doomed I tell you, doomed


----------



## numbnuts (26 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Serious question. Do you think less people will die if we (seemingly) pointlessly 'try' to control it ?
> I may be wrong and I sincerely hope I am but this looks like its going to run its course whatever we do.


My funeral is paid for, I just hope they don't put me in a mass grave


----------



## Mo1959 (26 Feb 2020)

numbnuts said:


> My funeral is paid for, I just hope they don't put me in a mass grave


That reminds me......must get a will made.


----------



## numbnuts (26 Feb 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> That reminds me......must get a will made.


My address is 14 St Patricks Court........


----------



## I like Skol (26 Feb 2020)

PANIC!

Got home from work this morning after 4 night shifts. I don't follow the news very closely at the best of times and certainly don't have a clue when I am on nights, tending to live in my own little bubble.
As I walked in through the front door I was met by Mrs Skol who was urging me to dash out and start buying storable food supplies...….


----------



## Levo-Lon (26 Feb 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Isn't the rate of spread and the % of deaths a little more alarming than flu?




Well yes but our chosen response is just ridiculous. 
As a nation we will cope better as will most of the EU.
3rd world ? Well nothing going to help there..

A measured response is the only way,not this silly shut everything and quarantine..that is pure madness..I guess we should report to "Expert " thread for advice


----------



## Mugshot (26 Feb 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Well yes but our chosen response is just ridiculous.
> As a nation we will cope better as will most of the EU.
> 3rd world ? Well nothing going to help there..
> 
> A measured response is the only way,not this silly shut everything and quarantine..that is pure madness..I guess we should report to "Expert " thread for advice


What are you thinking of as a measured response?


----------



## kingrollo (26 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Serious question. Do you think less people will die if we (seemingly) pointlessly 'try' to control it ?
> I may be wrong and I sincerely hope I am but this looks like its going to run its course whatever we do.



I think less - it will slow down the spread - and if we can get to summer it *might* spread less easily and the NHS might be out of winter pressures by then.


----------



## nickyboy (26 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Serious question. Do you think less people will die if we (seemingly) pointlessly 'try' to control it ?
> I may be wrong and I sincerely hope I am but this looks like its going to run its course whatever we do.


The short answer to your question is "yes"

For a virus like this which is transmittable well before symptoms show, trying to isolate hotspots isn't very effective. However what is REALLY effective is getting everyone to employ basic hygiene procedures (hand washing is the key one). There is loads of evidence that if everyone does this it really puts the brakes on the spread of the virus


----------



## Chris S (26 Feb 2020)

It's only a serious threat to elderly people or those with an underlying health condition. The government should get measures in place to protect them.


----------



## classic33 (26 Feb 2020)

Cases reported in Huddersfield.


----------



## Levo-Lon (26 Feb 2020)

Mugshot said:


> What are you thinking of as a measured response?



Let it run its course, treat the most vulnerable, its affecting people with certain health issues, so most people will have it and be fine.


----------



## Milkfloat (26 Feb 2020)

Anything wrong with this thread https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913


----------



## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

I like Skol said:


> PANIC!
> 
> I was met by Mrs Skol who was urging me to dash out and start buying storable food supplies...….



Oh dear. I'm farked if it does come here - working in close contact with about 30,000 students and 5,000 staff. It's coming.

I won't be storing food, but might pre order some brake pads for the MTB.


----------



## Milkfloat (26 Feb 2020)

numbnuts said:


> My address is 14 St Patricks Court........


Bracken Road?


----------



## Archie_tect (26 Feb 2020)

Neighbour has just returned from Tenerife where there's been an outbreak in a hotel with no restrictions in place so thousands will; be affected on flights all over Germany, UK and the other airports flying in. The 2 week infectious stage without symptoms means it will spread, it's inevitable. Flu kills thousands in the UK every year- this is no different- it'll affect those with existing heart and chest conditions the most.


----------



## I like Skol (26 Feb 2020)

Milkfloat said:


> Anything wrong with this thread https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913


Yes, obviously that one is no good because @Drago didn't start it!!!


----------



## johnnyb47 (26 Feb 2020)

I've just spoken about my concerns about this to HR at work. We have many people who travel in and out of Europe and they all work in a confined space within the factory. It only takes one to come in the factory with this it, and it could spread like wildfire. Obviously there's not much that can be done, but what concerns me is that some people may not be able to afford to take 2 weeks off self isolating themselves and may become selfish and turn up for work.
I've asked if they could offer the option (for the staff) to take the 2 weeks off as a holiday if they wanted. Hopefully it would help just incase a member of staff tries to continue working selfishly through financial pressures


----------



## Mugshot (26 Feb 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Let it run its course, treat the most vulnerable, its affecting people with certain health issues, so most people will have it and be fine.


When you say run it's course do you mean allow it to kill as many as it's going to, a natural cull? 
BTW, I'm not trying to pick at you here Levo.


----------



## kingrollo (26 Feb 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Let it run its course, treat the most vulnerable, its affecting people with certain health issues, so most people will have it and be fine.



But if you let it run its course there will be more 'most vulnerable' to treat - and we probably don't have the resources to cope with that.

The question is do we take drastic measures school/factory shutdowns - to have perhaps only a minor impact of the virus - if the drastic measures reduce the spread and death rate by say below 10%* is it worth doing ?

*Yes I have pulled the 10% figure out of the sky.


----------



## Drago (26 Feb 2020)

Milkfloat said:


> Anything wrong with this thread https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913


Yes, it's contagious!


----------



## Archie_tect (26 Feb 2020)

+ always using a handkerchief to cough or sneeze into, regardless of whether you have anything infectious inside you.


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## Dave7 (26 Feb 2020)

Mugshot said:


> What are you thinking of as a measured response?


I would have thought the answer to that was obvious.
We carefully analyse statistics....... THEN PANICK


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## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> I've just spoken about my concerns about this to HR at work. We have many people who travel in and out of Europe and they all work in a confined space within the factory. It only takes one to come in the factory with this it, and it could spread like wildfire. Obviously there's not much that can be done, but what concerns me is that some people may not be able to afford to take 2 weeks off self isolating themselves and may become selfish and turn up for work.
> I've asked if they could offer the option (for the staff) to take the 2 weeks off as a holiday if they wanted. Hopefully it would help just incase a member of staff tries to continue working selfishly through financial pressures



This is a real issue for those that only get statutory sick, even worse for them if they only have 4 weeks, like many small employers.

As some of the local schools have 'closed' these are schools where we send our student Teacher placements, so we're having to issue guidance now. We've also had a group of Post Grads and a lecturer return from Italy, that have been told to 'self isolate'. I suppose we are lucky in that the Lecturer will be able to take the time off as 'sick' on full pay, but they will need a sick note issuing even though there are unlikely to be ill.

Hmm what would you be doing if sent 'off' to self isolate. I think I'd have to get out on my bike in the middle of no-where as usual.


----------



## Levo-Lon (26 Feb 2020)

Mugshot said:


> When you say run it's course do you mean allow it to kill as many as it's going to, a natural cull?
> BTW, I'm not trying to pick at you here Levo.




Well that is what I'm saying I guess.
But as stated " We " in the medically sufficient societies should be able to cope better.
Sadly we will have deaths but from a contain it point of view its farcical..

As posted above ,work ..self isolated staff for 2 weeks.. then come back to work to find another staff member is positive?
Where does it end?

Lots will die as a result of this virus so it's a case of be prepared and expect hospitals to be stretched.

Another example, my work ,care...
What happens if we have a positive result.
Are we quarantined at work to keep the home going or do we all go home?
Who will care for the needy?

Myself and my wife have auto immune conditions so I'm not crazy about getting this but I will take my chance, and as for not working and earning....that worries us as a couple far far more..


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## vickster (26 Feb 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> + always using a handkerchief to cough or sneeze into, regardless of whether you have anything infectious inside you.


And wash your hands or apply gel afterwards


----------



## Mugshot (26 Feb 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Well that is what I'm saying I guess.
> But as stated " We " in the medically sufficient societies should be able to cope better.
> Sadly we will have deaths but from a contain it point of view its farcical..
> 
> ...


Unfortunately letting it run it's course will likely be far more devastating to the poor and the vulnerable.
The directive down here is that all visitors now have to use hand sanitiser when they arrive and if there is a case in the county the home will be shut to all but staff.


----------



## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Well that is what I'm saying I guess.
> But as stated " We " in the medically sufficient societies should be able to cope better.
> Sadly we will have deaths but from a contain it point of view its farcical..
> 
> ...



You'll probably end up with a fair few 'vacancies' at the care home. This is one thing that would see off MIL (nursing home and heart failure and other stuff), but what happens if someone does catch it - you've still got to be there to look after them and everyone else. Like flu, it will spread.


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## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> There is loads of evidence that if everyone does this it really puts the brakes on the spread of the virus



Given what I see in my 'building' we are doomed. Students and staff not washing hands, and making a mess of the toilets, even no washing after a 'sit'. Doomed I tell yee. Both male and female just as bad, although the female staff do say it's really bad in their shared loos.


----------



## Drago (26 Feb 2020)

Milkfloat said:


> Anything wrong with this thread https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913



In all seriousness, the stated aims of this thread are very different to that one.


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## Accy cyclist (26 Feb 2020)

I won't be panicking, but i'll be keeping out of the sauna and steam rooms at my local leisure centre. There's always someone in when i'm in,telling of their holidays abroad. Maybe they could be carriers. I was also thinking about getting 'tanned up' by using a local sun bed salon,but i think it's wise to avoid hot and sweaty/steamy places.

Will we reach the 'bring out your dead' stage,like in medieval plague times,i don't think so,but we could have quite a few deaths here.


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## Drago (26 Feb 2020)

Hey, Accy, with a bit of luck Dirty Gertie from flat number 30 might succumb.


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## Accy cyclist (26 Feb 2020)

Drago said:


> Hey, Accy, with a bit of luck Dirty Gertie from flat number 30 might succumb.


Yes,i'm hoping so!


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## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

Hmm, might be a new way to work (bike) from home

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-c...-home-as-coronavirus-precaution-idUKKBN20J2PZ

So anyone with flu like symptoms, send everyone home. I feel a sniffle coming on.


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## MichaelO (26 Feb 2020)

Complete joke for the vast majority of the population. Where was the news scare-mongering as the hundreds of people die each winter from seasonal flu in the UK? Where was the self-quarantining then?! The elderly & those with pre-existing conditions should receive additional attention and advice (given the flu jabs they are eligible to receive each winter don't cover this strain). But for 90%+ of the population, this mass hysteria is ridiculous.


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## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

I'm getting the flu jab next year - had two nasty illnesses (flu and that chest infection) working here in the space of 3 months (Oct-Dec). We were all keeping well clear of MIL as any chest infections/flu, puts her in hospital/potentially deadly.


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## mjr (26 Feb 2020)

Two Lincolnshire (not Spalding) primary schools shut down by fears. https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/health/spalding-schools-close-over-coronavirus-fears-1891467


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## Dave7 (26 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> Complete joke for the vast majority of the population. Where was the news scare-mongering as the hundreds of people die each winter from seasonal flu in the UK? Where was the self-quarantining then?! The elderly & those with pre-existing conditions should receive additional attention and advice (given the flu jabs they are eligible to receive each winter don't cover this strain). But for 90%+ of the population, this mass hysteria is ridiculous.


All well and good you saying that but answer me this............
If we didn't have this then what else could we moan about?


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## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> All well and good you saying that but answer me this............
> If we didn't have this then what else could we moan about?



The weather. 


Er, oh we are !


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## Dave7 (26 Feb 2020)

fossyant said:


> I'm getting the flu jab next year - had two nasty illnesses (flu and that chest infection) working here in the space of 3 months (Oct-Dec). We were all keeping well clear of MIL as any chest infections/flu, puts her in hospital/potentially deadly.


Over the years I have heard some good excuses for avoiding the MIL but have to congratulate you, that is the best.
But seriously, we take a herbal anti flu tab October through to March. I am seriously thinking of a jab for next year.


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## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Over the years I have heard some good excuses for avoiding the MIL but have to congratulate you, that is the best.
> But seriously, we take a herbal anti flu tab October through to March. I am seriously thinking of a jab for next year.



I never usually catch anything, but the flu and coughing virus decimated my work place, and no-one was sent home. I was off a week with the flu as I couldn't get out of bed, then about 3 days with the cough - I dragged myself in as stuff needed doing. 

Try and avoid MIL as we just get 'jobs', even now she is in a nursing home. Insists we water the plants and fill up the window bird feeder (despite her having staff that probably did it earlier in the day) - obsessed with watering potted plants. She'd have us doing the garden if she could.


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## vickster (26 Feb 2020)

Hopefully, everyone on here worrying about coronavirus has been to have an MMR jab to protect the vulnerable from those diseases - anyone over about the age of 35 is unlikely to have had any effective vaccination
And anyone who was a child when Wakefield was spreading his false data and wasn't vaccinated.

It's free to all. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/mmr-vaccine-when-needed/

Warning - it's quite a painful injection (I had it a year or so ago when I went to Latin America)...but then again little children do cope


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## Levo-Lon (26 Feb 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Unfortunately letting it run it's course will likely be far more devastating to the poor and the vulnerable.
> The directive down here is that all visitors now have to use hand sanitiser when they arrive and if there is a case in the county the home will be shut to all but staff.




Hand sanitizer is out of stock already with many suppliers..
Hopefully stocks in house will last, we have enough I think..

Try buying at the shops, local Tesco is sold out..as are other high street shops


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## Mugshot (26 Feb 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Hand sanitizer is out of stock already with many suppliers..
> Hopefully stocks in house will last, we have enough I think..
> 
> Try buying at the shops, local Tesco is sold out..as are other high street shops


Aldi down here had a pallet of it in a couple of days ago, no idea if it's there now mind.


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## Dave7 (26 Feb 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Hand sanitizer is out of stock already with many suppliers..
> Hopefully stocks in house will last, we have enough I think..
> 
> Try buying at the shops, local Tesco is sold out..as are other high street shops


When we were kids (ok 65 years ago) when we got blisters, segs or cuts on our hands we would just pee on them. Easier for the lads but it seemed to work for us.
Also...... ..as kids, if one lad in our street caught eg measles or chicken pox the parents would, literally, chuck us all in bed together. We all got it, we were all ill, then we all got better. Maybe something in that.


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## Drago (26 Feb 2020)

What, you pee'd on each others hands? Strange that the boys found it easier to do that to one another.


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## Dave7 (26 Feb 2020)

Drago said:


> What, you pee'd on each others hands? Strange that the boys found it easier to do that to one another.


That might have been fun but no, we peed on our own hands.


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## Beebo (26 Feb 2020)

The Ireland Italy match is called off for next weekend.


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## MichaelO (26 Feb 2020)

Beebo said:


> The Ireland Italy match is called off for next weekend.


And yet the Lyon v Juventus match tonight isn't. Thousands of fans travelling from North Italy into France...what could go wrong?!


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## PeteXXX (26 Feb 2020)

It must be contagious on CC. We now have yet another Coronavirus related thread...


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## postman (26 Feb 2020)

This virus thingy is it like the one i accidentally got on my computer while Mrs P was away for two weeks,that nice man in Thailand got rid of it for me for 500 bit coins,whatever they are.Any virus is not as bad as Mrs P when she loses her temper.


----------



## Rocky (26 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> Complete joke for the vast majority of the population. Where was the news scare-mongering as the hundreds of people die each winter from seasonal flu in the UK? Where was the self-quarantining then?! The elderly & those with pre-existing conditions should receive additional attention and advice (given the flu jabs they are eligible to receive each winter don't cover this strain). But for 90%+ of the population, this mass hysteria is ridiculous.


I hope you are right but I fear you aren’t. So far nearly 3,000 in China have died. It is spreading. The thing about the virus is that it spreads quickly and is very infectious (far more than SARS). It kills about 2% of people who have caught it. It would be negligent of governments to ignore it.

Shall we have this conversation again in a couple of months? If I’m wrong about its dangers, I’ll happily apologise.


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## Drago (26 Feb 2020)

Worse case scenario if it hit properly on our shores is between 800,000 and 1.05 million dead at the infection and mortality rates seen so far.


----------



## vickster (26 Feb 2020)

postman said:


> This virus thingy is it like the one i accidentally got on my computer while Mrs P was away for two weeks,that nice man in Thailand got rid of it for me for 500 bit coins,whatever they are.Any virus is not as bad as Mrs P when she loses her temper.


That'll teach you to look at porn while the wife is away


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## Rocky (26 Feb 2020)

vickster said:


> That'll teach you to look at porn while the wife is away


I think he was trying to buy a postbox on eBay 

https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/e-bay-seller.257936/


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## vickster (26 Feb 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think he was trying to buy a postbox on eBay
> 
> https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/e-bay-seller.257936/


Which is a far more bizarre thing to be looking at frankly


----------



## MichaelO (26 Feb 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I hope you are right but I fear you aren’t. So far nearly 3,000 in China have died. It is spreading. The thing about the virus is that it spreads quickly and is very infectious (far more than SARS). It kills about 2% of people who have caught it. It would be negligent of governments to ignore it.
> 
> Shall we have this conversation again in a couple of months? If I’m wrong about its dangers, I’ll happily apologise.


600,000-700,000 die from flu each and every year, and yet it doesn’t even make it to a footnote in the news. You are correct - corona is more deadly than regular flu (based on data to date - 2% mortality is multiple times higher than normal), but only in the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

But your final point is pertinent - let’s see where we actually get to with this - I hope we look back at this as a huge over reaction (in the same way the 2003 SARS was)


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## tom73 (26 Feb 2020)

Public health England advice 

employers and businesses 
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ance-for-employers-and-businesses-on-covid-19

None Clinical settings and general advice 
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/covid-19-guidance-for-non-clinical-settings-and-the-public


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## Rocky (26 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> 600,000-700,000 die from flu each and every year, and yet it doesn’t even make it to a footnote in the news. You are correct - corona is more deadly than regular flu (based on data to date - 2% mortality is multiple times higher than normal), but only in the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.
> 
> But your final point is pertinent - let’s see where we actually get to with this - I hope we look back at this as a huge over reaction (in the same way the 2003 SARS was)


I think your figures overstate the deaths from flu - I’d be interested to know where they came from. Wikipedia suggests it’s between 250-500k.

I suppose there are two responses to Coronavirus. We could ignore it on the grounds it’s not killed nearly as many as flu. Or we could listen to the communicable disease epidemiologists who think this is the start of a pandemic. On balance, I prefer the latter. The former approach is a bit of a high risk strategy if we get it wrong.


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## numbnuts (26 Feb 2020)

So me being 69 in October with no dependents would it be wise to blow my life saving now


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## HMS_Dave (26 Feb 2020)

Coronavirus? It's making the media millions....


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## DCLane (26 Feb 2020)

I work in a university, SWMBO works in a patient-facing role in a hospital, son no. 1 is at university and son no. 2 is at school.

The decision we've reached is that it'll hit us as some point * and, given three of us have asthma and one recovering from glandular fever, it'll be challenging. Oh, and we're likely to have to 'self-isolate' either way.

Lots of rice / pasta / baked beans / soup being bought this week.

* Having been one of the few to actually _catch_ swine flu it near killed me. So @numbnuts I'd get spending - and not on a bike; something short-term and enjoyable.


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## nickyboy (26 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> 600,000-700,000 die from flu each and every year, and yet it doesn’t even make it to a footnote in the news. You are correct - corona is more deadly than regular flu (based on data to date - 2% mortality is multiple times higher than normal), but only in the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.
> 
> But your final point is pertinent - let’s see where we actually get to with this - I hope we look back at this as a huge over reaction (in the same way the 2003 SARS was)


It's more deadly (mainly because we don't have a vaccine and won't have for several months)
It's more contagious (its R0 is higher than flu)
It is communicable for up to 10 days before symptoms show 

This idea that we should just let it run its course and do nothing is ridiculous in the extreme. Do that and millions will die that won't die if we take action

The best thing everyone can do is wash your hands...a lot. There is masses of evidence to show that this slows the spread more effectively than anything else

We have one vulnerable member of the family so we have N95 masks (good luck buying those now), loads of hand sanitiser. Will probably start increasing the buying of food staples because, as can be seen in Lombardy, when cases start to occur, panic buying starts


----------



## MontyVeda (26 Feb 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Hand sanitizer is out of stock already with many suppliers..
> Hopefully stocks in house will last, we have enough I think..
> 
> Try buying at the shops, local Tesco is sold out..as are other high street shops


Soap and water is as good as any old fancy hand sanitiser... wash your hands thoroughly, wringing and getting between all the fingers, whilst humming happy birthday, twice (in other words, for about 30-40 seconds)


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Feb 2020)

As said earlier, it’s been reckoned that 80% of the UK population might contract it. Like flu, the vast majority will shrug it off, some might not even notice it. But with a 2% mortality rate that’s potentially a million dead. More than both world wars combined and in a space of months, not years.
Lot of ifs and buts obviously, but any government who didn’t try to stop a million deaths would be hanging from lampposts.


----------



## rualexander (26 Feb 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> As said earlier, it’s been reckoned that 80% of the UK population might contract it.



Who's reckoned that figure?
Only 0.01% of the population in China have contracted it so far and new cases are starting to fall.
Even if many more have contracted it subclinically it's still a very small percentage.
Of course it may be different here but 80% seems a bit high?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Feb 2020)

rualexander said:


> Who's reckoned that figure?
> Only 0.01% of the population in China have contracted it so far and new cases are starting to fall.
> Even if many more have contracted it subclinically it's still a very small percentage.
> Of course it may be different here but 80% seems a bit high?


Just a figure quoted on radio news programmes today. In China they’ve closed down cities and shut them off to the world. Can you see a western democracy getting away with that?


----------



## slowmotion (26 Feb 2020)

rualexander said:


> Who's reckoned that figure?
> Only 0.01% of the population in China have contracted it so far and new cases are starting to fall.
> Even if many more have contracted it subclinically it's still a very small percentage.
> Of course it may be different here but 80% seems a bit high?


^^^^^^This!

I read that 2% of the people who caught it in China died. That may be the case, but do you really trust any statistics that come from that particular government? How many people didn't catch it? Eight years ago I had an operation. The surgeon came to see me the night before to sign consent forms. He said that 2% of patients die under general anaesthetic for no particular reason at all. That didn't seem to me to be any cause for concern. 

Don't worry.


----------



## Drago (26 Feb 2020)

rualexander said:


> Who's reckoned that figure?
> Only 0.01% of the population in China have contracted it so far and new cases are starting to fall.
> Even if many more have contracted it subclinically it's still a very small percentage.
> Of course it may be different here but 80% seems a bit high?


The government, using data from the WHO about the spread so far.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Feb 2020)

China hid bodies from the WHO during the SARS epidemic. Take their figures with a pinch of salt.


----------



## midlife (26 Feb 2020)

slowmotion said:


> ^^^^^^This!
> 
> I read that 2% of the people who caught it in China died. That may be the case, but do you really trust any statistics that come from that particular government? How many people didn't catch it? Eight years ago I had an operation. The surgeon came to see me the night before to sign consent forms. He said that 2% of patients die under general anaesthetic for no particular reason at all. That didn't seem to me to be any cause for concern.
> 
> Don't worry.



Mortality for a general anaesthetic is 1 in 100000 as often quoted, not sure what that is in percent?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Feb 2020)

midlife said:


> Mortality for a general anaesthetic is 1 in 100000 as often quoted, not sure what that is in percent?


And anaesthetists are very careful to vet patients in advance to keep that figure as low as possible. My wife nearly died due to a reaction to anaesthetic in 2002 - no anaesthetist will agree to her desperately needed surgery now.


----------



## MontyVeda (26 Feb 2020)

a stat claiming that 80% of the UK population 'might' contract it should be taken with a pinch of salt.


----------



## Blue Hills (26 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Face it Mrs Mainwaring we're doomed I tell you, doomed


Had to laugh the other day. A mail writer to one of the Metro freesheets the other day said something like "what's all this talk of 'pandemic', tell it like it is, it's a plague"


----------



## midlife (26 Feb 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> And anaesthetists are very careful to vet patients in advance to keep that figure as low as possible. My wife nearly died due to a reaction to anaesthetic in 2002 - no anaesthetist will agree to her desperately needed surgery now.



Sorry to hear that  malignant hyperthermia?


----------



## Smokin Joe (26 Feb 2020)

There have probably been far more cases of people in China with the infection than reported as they spent some time trying to cover the extent up, so the death rate may be well below the stated 2%.

The countries most at risk are those with poor standards of hygiene, like China and Iran.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Feb 2020)

midlife said:


> Sorry to hear that  malignant hyperthermia?


Can’t remember exactly, her oxygen levels kept dropping and every time they stabilised her, it was at a lower level. They actually called a priest (but not her husband  )


----------



## nickyboy (26 Feb 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> There have probably been far more cases of people in China with the infection than reported as they spent some time trying to cover the extent up, so the death rate may be well below the stated 2%.
> 
> The countries most at risk are those with poor standards of hygiene, like China and Iran.


Having lived in China I can tell you they are much keener on hand washing than we are. They are also much keener on mask wearing too

The countries most at risk are those with poorly resources healthcare systems (like Iran)

Now is not the time to panic. But we all really must up our game on basic hygiene. That's how we limit the spread


----------



## vickster (26 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Having lived in China I can tell you they are much keener on hand washing than we are. They are also much keener on mask wearing too
> 
> The countries most at risk are those with poorly resources healthcare systems (like Iran)
> 
> Now is not the time to panic. But we all really must up our game on basic hygiene. That's how we limit the spread


They do spit a lot in China though...saw / heard lots of people hoiking up and gobbing in the street  hardly a high level of hygiene


----------



## slowmotion (26 Feb 2020)

midlife said:


> Mortality for a general anaesthetic is 1 in 100000 as often quoted, not sure what that is in percent?


As a percentage, 1 in 100,000 is 0.001 percent. Common sense tells me that more than 1 in 100,000 will routinely peg out on the table but that's another issue.

Edit: Hang about, I'll check the decimal places....

Edit edit: Yes, I think 0.001 percent is right.


----------



## nickyboy (26 Feb 2020)

vickster said:


> They do spit a lot in China though...saw / heard lots of people hoiking up and gobbing in the street  hardly a high level of hygiene


Not in recent years. Used to be common, much less so now

Cyclists snot rockets are just as bad


----------



## vickster (26 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Not in recent years. Used to be common, much less so now
> 
> Cyclists snot rockets are just as bad


Certainly commonplace when I was in both Beijing and Shanghai in 2012, not that long ago
Yes, snot rockets are foul too


----------



## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

I'm sniffling again. That's working where I do..


----------



## I like Skol (26 Feb 2020)

numbnuts said:


> So me being 69 in October with no dependents would it be wise to blow my life saving now


Let's face it, you're on borrowed time! Snort coke, hire call girls, gamble, and drink like a fish....


----------



## kingrollo (26 Feb 2020)

rualexander said:


> Who's reckoned that figure?
> Only 0.01% of the population in China have contracted it so far and new cases are starting to fall.
> Even if many more have contracted it subclinically it's still a very small percentage.
> Of course it may be different here but 80% seems a bit high?


Yes but what is being suggested is that measures taken in China aren't required in the UK - and to shut schools and implement lock downs is hysteria and we should just carry on and let it run its course.

It would be brave country that takes the let it run approach.

There could be a case to not believe what you read - but the comparison s with flu imo don't cut it. It seems to spread more easily than flu - and has a much higher death rate.


----------



## Smokin Joe (26 Feb 2020)

There seems to be a bit of panic creeping in. My neighbour was telling me today that she had been in Aldis when she got a tickle in her throat and gave a few coughs. And elderly couple next to her looked in alarm and jumped back about six feet.


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## kingrollo (26 Feb 2020)

slowmotion said:


> ^^^^^^This!
> 
> I read that 2% of the people who caught it in China died. That may be the case, but do you really trust any statistics that come from that particular government? How many people didn't catch it? Eight years ago I had an operation. The surgeon came to see me the night before to sign consent forms. He said that 2% of patients die under general anaesthetic for no particular reason at all. That didn't seem to me to be any cause for concern.
> 
> Don't worry.


No way do 2% of patients die under anthestic


----------



## cookiemonster (26 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> Complete joke for the vast majority of the population. Where was the news scare-mongering as the hundreds of people die each winter from seasonal flu in the UK? Where was the self-quarantining then?! The elderly & those with pre-existing conditions should receive additional attention and advice (given the flu jabs they are eligible to receive each winter don't cover this strain). But for 90%+ of the population, this mass hysteria is ridiculous.



Tell that to the South Koreans, the Chinese and the Singaporeans and see their reaction. The hysteria, as you call it, is justified. A 3% mortality rate, seasonal flu is less than 1%, and people are more infectious before showing symptoms is a cause for concern. Don’t take this lightly, no-one in Asia is for a very good reason.


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## Rocky (26 Feb 2020)

I like Skol said:


> Let's face it, you're on borrowed time! Snort coke, hire call girls, gamble, and drink like a fish....


Just a normal day then......


----------



## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

Yay, back together.... Pat note your link !!


----------



## fossyant (26 Feb 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Just a normal day then......



We all wish !


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## cookiemonster (26 Feb 2020)

Don’t panic folks! Matt Hancock’s in charge.


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## kingrollo (26 Feb 2020)

The old thread has self isolated -it should be back out in 14 days


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## Pat "5mph" (26 Feb 2020)

fossyant said:


> Yay, back together.... Pat note your link !!


Opps, got mixed up, fixing it as I type


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## kingrollo (26 Feb 2020)

Seriously ..how would you self isolate in a family in a family home ?
Sure locking yourself away in a bed room is do able - but using the loo having a shower would be a sure fire way of passing it to you're family ???


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## slowmotion (26 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> No way do 2% of patients die under anthestic


In the case of my cardiac procedure, that is what my surgeon said. I should have made it clear that it was just for my particular circumstances at the time. Apologies for any confusion.


----------



## greenmark (26 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Seriously ..how would you self isolate in a family in a family home ?
> Sure locking yourself away in a bed room is do able - but using the loo having a shower would be a sure fire way of passing it to you're family ???



Don't share towels. No hand towels. No tea towels. 
If a person becomes ill, always wear gloves and, if possible, goggles. Wash hands to the wrists.


----------



## slowmotion (26 Feb 2020)

We're all going to die!
How do you want to spend your remaining days?...….sitting under the stairs wearing a bio-hazard suit while wetting yourself with anxiety?
FFS, get a grip on reality.


----------



## Rusty Nails (26 Feb 2020)

slowmotion said:


> We're all going to die!
> How do you want to spend your remaining days?...….sitting under the stairs wearing a bio-hazard suit while wetting yourself with anxiety?
> FFS, get a grip on reality.



If you think people are saying we're all going to die I suspect it is you who needs to get a grip on reality.


----------



## kingrollo (26 Feb 2020)

slowmotion said:


> We're all going to die!
> How do you want to spend your remaining days?...….sitting under the stairs wearing a bio-hazard suit while wetting yourself with anxiety?
> FFS, get a grip on reality.



True - but if there are minor lifestyle changes I can make to reduce the risk to myself and my family then I am going to do that.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (26 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Seriously ..how would you self isolate in a family in a family home ?
> Sure locking yourself away in a bed room is do able - but using the loo having a shower would be a sure fire way of passing it to you're family ???



Don’t all sleep in the same bed. Stuff like that.


----------



## slowmotion (26 Feb 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> If you think people are saying we're all going to die I suspect it is you who needs to get a grip on reality.


Gallows humour isn't your strong point, I guess?


----------



## RoadRider400 (26 Feb 2020)

slowmotion said:


> ^^^^^^This!
> 
> I read that 2% of the people who caught it in China died. That may be the case, *but do you really trust any statistics that come from that particular government?* How many people didn't catch it? Eight years ago I had an operation. The surgeon came to see me the night before to sign consent forms. He said that 2% of patients die under general anaesthetic for no particular reason at all. That didn't seem to me to be any cause for concern.
> 
> Don't worry.



No, not even slightly. I think its an awful lot higher than they are reporting.


----------



## slowmotion (26 Feb 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> No, not even slightly. I think its an awful lot higher than they are reporting.


 Number of infected or died? Who knows how many were infected? Plenty of people must have just shrugged it off without a visit to the doctors.


----------



## MarkF (26 Feb 2020)

If it was 1985 we'd now just be becoming aware of an issue in a city in deepest China, that we'd never heard of. We'd be worried, then we'd forget about it all together, then it'd be over.


----------



## mjr (26 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> but using the loo having a shower would be a sure fire way of passing it to you're family ???


Use the loo first, then have a shower!


----------



## slowmotion (27 Feb 2020)

Global deaths from Coronavirus to date (probably entirely inaccurate): about 3000
Global deaths from entirely normal mortality per year:56,000,000
Global population: about 8000,000,000

E&OE


----------



## Blue Hills (27 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Seriously ..how would you self isolate in a family in a family home ?
> Sure locking yourself away in a bed room is do able - but using the loo having a shower would be a sure fire way of passing it to you're family ???


Yes and in london's many many shared houses, shared kitchens bathrooms toilets i can't see most folk managing to pull it off. Going to lead to way more rows than "you ate my yoghurt"


----------



## Levo-Lon (27 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> When we were kids (ok 65 years ago) when we got blisters, segs or cuts on our hands we would just pee on them. Easier for the lads but it seemed to work for us.
> Also...... ..as kids, if one lad in our street caught eg measles or chicken pox the parents would, literally, chuck us all in bed together. We all got it, we were all ill, then we all got better. Maybe something in that.



I think the get the kids together still happens, certainly my Vet DinL applies that logic with her 2.

I had just about everything by the age of 8-9...not too sure about the urine bath  must have been posh up our end


----------



## Levo-Lon (27 Feb 2020)

fossyant said:


> I never usually catch anything, but the flu and coughing virus decimated my work place, and no-one was sent home. I was off a week with the flu as I couldn't get out of bed, then about 3 days with the cough - I dragged myself in as stuff needed doing.
> 
> Try and avoid MIL as we just get 'jobs', even now she is in a nursing home. Insists we water the plants and fill up the window bird feeder (despite her having staff that probably did it earlier in the day) - obsessed with watering potted plants. She'd have us doing the garden if she could.




Our staff get free flu Jabs ,health workers.
I've got them free since 2003 due to my UC, don't know whether it has worked or not.
I had flu in 94 and 98 , everything else has been a cold or virus.
I'm very conscious about where you put your hands when at work...don't rub your eyes ,wash hands properly ect.

I'm of the impression a lot don't going by the way our staff go down with everything and anything..


----------



## Inertia (27 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> 600,000-700,000 die from flu each and every year, and yet it doesn’t even make it to a footnote in the news. You are correct - corona is more deadly than regular flu (based on data to date - 2% mortality is multiple times higher than normal), but only in the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.
> 
> But your final point is pertinent - let’s see where we actually get to with this - I hope we look back at this as a huge over reaction (in the same way the 2003 SARS was)


But will it have been an overreaction or is it’s effect minimised because the reaction was effective?


----------



## Fab Foodie (27 Feb 2020)

Too posh to self isolate....

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...italy-trip-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


----------



## Illaveago (27 Feb 2020)

It is a bit worrying what a person said on ITV Breakfast this morning. 
He had visited Milan recently and was unaware of the outbreak in Italy. He noticed people there wearing facemasks. At the airport before his return flight people were being checked for the virus but when he landed at Luton there was nothing. He even said that an Italian couple who were sitting in front of him had flu symptoms but were just let through.
When he arrived home he thought he was going down with flu and rang 111 who told him to go to his doctor's surgery. So he waited in amongst normal patients without any precautions until a nurse came out to see him . Then panic! 
He is now at home waiting to hear about the results of his test .


----------



## kingrollo (27 Feb 2020)

Illaveago said:


> It is a bit worrying what a person said on ITV Breakfast this morning.
> He had visited Milan recently and was unaware of the outbreak in Italy. He noticed people there wearing facemasks. At the airport before his return flight people were being checked for the virus but when he landed at Luton there was nothing. He even said that an Italian couple who were sitting in front of him had flu symptoms but were just let through.
> When he arrived home he thought he was going down with flu and rang 111 who told him to go to his doctor's surgery. So he waited in amongst normal patients without any precautions until a nurse came out to see him . Then panic!
> He is now at home waiting to hear about the results of his test .



I think the problem with the UK could be that a good many people are still in "Its all a load of bollx" mode - not just Coronavirus, but health and safety, speed cameras, regulation in general - politicians - "its all a load of cobblers isn't it"

So far from panic mode "Its just like the flu ain't it" will be the prevailing attitude. - which might just backfire.


----------



## tom73 (27 Feb 2020)

Mass panic or just a passing fob it off won't help anyone. If you are at higher risk or live with someone who is then it makes perfect sense. 
To take a measured approach and prepare for someone to come down with it. For the rest of us be aware of how things are developing and what basic step's to take. If you think your coming down with it or maybe at risk of having it. For the health of everyone inc the health care staff who have no choice to put themselves at higher risk. Don't just wonder into your GP's or A and E. Phone 111 and you will be told what to do and when you need to do it. 

As some have said already basic hand washing is the best line of defence. Facemarks don't work even in clinical environments they have little effect after a short time frame. For most of us the the other type are over kill. Hand gel no matter how much you plaster on is not an effective substitute for soap and water. This virus maybe many things but it's pretty crap outside the body and upping the basics really is more effective than many may think. 

Plenty of real information is around if you really want to find it. Public Health England are ready for this sort of stuff and more information is coming out as thing's develop. In this age of instant information it's easy to get hot headed about why is not more being done in an instant. Incidents like this don't work that way rushing out information or imposing over the top measures just make it worse. If needed the response can be steeped up but even then it's based on well thought out planning and guided by the best information available. 

As for 73 towers well over the years Mrs 73 has nursed some pretty nasty infectious disease. She know's more than most to keep herself as safe as she can at work. I've done and delivered plenty of infection control training to know the basics. I'm not over worrying just aware of how things are moving and up'd the hand washing.I've a few extra bit's in the cupboard but no more than I normal have at this time year. 
If information changers then we will take note but as it stands we are taking a measured approach based on fact's, official information , and any extra guidelines that come Mrs 73's way. 

If you want to carry on with dr google and FB then go for it. Carry on and full your boot's with hand gel and your spare room with mask's. 
But it wont help anyone other than amazons profits. Or you can take a balanced approach based on fact's, real information and that way you can help everyone including yourself.


----------



## Dave7 (27 Feb 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Don’t all sleep in the same bed. Stuff like that.


You try telling that to my wife and 4 mistresses


----------



## fossyant (27 Feb 2020)

In the lift just a few minutes ago with a 'health' colleague - her daughter has just come back from Milan and can't remember if she had the dry cough before going out, as they'd been drinking that much whilst away. It's coming !


----------



## vickster (27 Feb 2020)

fossyant said:


> In the lift just a few minutes ago with a 'health' colleague - her daughter has just come back from Milan and can't remember if she had the dry cough before going out, as they'd been drinking that much whilst away. It's coming !


Except Milan isn’t one of the affected places?
UK... so far 13 confirmed Covid cases, 6000 people tested...5987 colds / other viruses / no illness


----------



## MichaelO (27 Feb 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think your figures overstate the deaths from flu - I’d be interested to know where they came from. Wikipedia suggests it’s between 250-500k.


From the updated research, as published in the Lancet. The 250k-500k is recognised as understating the number of deaths.
Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)33293-2/fulltext



cookiemonster said:


> Tell that to the South Koreans, the Chinese and the Singaporeans and see their reaction. The hysteria, as you call it, is justified. A 3% mortality rate, seasonal flu is less than 1%, and people are more infectious before showing symptoms is a cause for concern. Don’t take this lightly, no-one in Asia is for a very good reason.


The number of deaths in Mainland China to mid-Feb tell me that we need to focus on protecting the elderly. For the core of the population, vigilance/cleanliness is key (as it is any winter!).


----------



## kingrollo (27 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> From the updated research, as published in the Lancet. The 250k-500k is recognised as understating the number of deaths.
> Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)33293-2/fulltext
> 
> The number of deaths in Mainland China to mid-Feb tell me that we need to focus on protecting the elderly. For the core of the population, vigilance/cleanliness is key (as it is any winter!).
> ...



i suppose 50-59 are the older but more mobile people.


----------



## fossyant (27 Feb 2020)

vickster said:


> Except Milan isn’t one of the affected places?
> UK... so far 13 confirmed Covid cases, 6000 people tested...5987 colds / other viruses / no illness



See post #427 above


----------



## I like Skol (27 Feb 2020)

Just heard a radio ad for Saga cruises, 35% off!
Anybody fancy getting away from all the panic ....


----------



## fossyant (27 Feb 2020)

I like Skol said:


> Just heard a radio ad for Saga cruises, 35% off!
> Anybody fancy getting away from all the panic ....



Stop it, I qualify for Saga now. Already had 'post' from them.


----------



## fossyant (27 Feb 2020)

So anyone stockpiling beans yet ?

I'm not stockpiling my brake pads yet as Uber Bike still haven had their Corona Virus sale on race matrix pads.  I recon Planex X will have a 'special' sale shortly.


----------



## mjr (27 Feb 2020)

tom73 said:


> As some have said already basic hand washing is the best line of defence. [...] Hand gel no matter how much you plaster on is not an effective substitute for soap and water.


I agree with much of what you write, but official advice is to use alcohol hand gel when you can't wash: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...general-public#preventing-spread-of-infection

Maybe not a substitute, but better than nothing.


----------



## vickster (27 Feb 2020)

fossyant said:


> See post #427 above


It was that very report that said Milan isn’t in the zone.
He has been tested but had not yet had the results so he may just have a cold (he actually said he felt broadly well)


----------



## Archie_tect (27 Feb 2020)

I like Skol said:


> Just heard a radio ad for Saga cruises, 35% off!
> Anybody fancy getting away from all the panic ....


4 weeks for the price of 2...


----------



## NorthernSky (27 Feb 2020)

holiday paid for to Greece in May
the news has the life scared out of me now with this coronavirus, but i'm determined to go unless the foreign office advises against travel to the country at the time.
anyone else got hols booked, plan of action?


----------



## Phaeton (27 Feb 2020)

We have the US booked in October, not a great deal can be done about it, although some friends up the road have just gone on a cruise which starts off in Vietnam, I honestly don't think I would have gone.


----------



## Levo-Lon (27 Feb 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> 4 weeks for the price of 2...



Do pay the extra for a sea view room


----------



## Archie_tect (27 Feb 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Do pay the extra for a sea view room


Even better with an opening porthole to be able to:
a. converse with the BBC reporter on shore, and, 
b. quickly return any undigested seafood to the ocean.


----------



## Mo1959 (27 Feb 2020)

Just waiting on the panic starting here, although the kids weren't that close to the outbreak in Italy. Local school ski trip.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/...xwRvGSnHhOpkSbDAPfVAbKDdJabRRDnRs6K414uRC1aNs


----------



## gbb (27 Feb 2020)

Turkey in August.
Kinda hoping there will be a vaccine before then, i'm not sure this is all going to settle down without it.

I also said to my wife the other day...pay by CC, get another layer of protection if it all goes pear shaped. Too late was the reply, its almost all paid already, not by CC.


----------



## dodgy (27 Feb 2020)

Vaccine is at least a year away.


----------



## The Crofted Crest (27 Feb 2020)

Northern Italy, tomorrow morning.


----------



## alicat (27 Feb 2020)

^^^^ gulp, are you still going?


----------



## fossyant (27 Feb 2020)

Does Prestatyn count - almost every weekend (it's over the border). CC'er MTB weekends in N. Wales for June and October.

Oh and it's my 25th wedding anniversary in August - not booked anything just yet !


----------



## The Crofted Crest (27 Feb 2020)

alicat said:


> ^^^^ gulp, are you still going?



You betcha! It'll be nice and quiet.


----------



## ianrauk (27 Feb 2020)

USA in May, Greece in September.
Not in the slightest worried


----------



## vickster (27 Feb 2020)

ianrauk said:


> USA in May
> Not in the slightest worried


Ditto, US and Canada. 
IF the FCO says don’t go, I won’t. It’s mostly cancellable and I have insurance


----------



## jowwy (27 Feb 2020)

Just cancelled my France trip for June before i needed to pay the full amount at end of march......for 2 reasons

1. partner has heart condition and fybromalgia and we are going to an area which people have been affected
2 i was taking my dog with me, if we did contract the illness and was quarantined, where would my lil dog go....i doubt they would let him come with us and there is no way i'm letting him go to kennels

i only lost my deposit and as i have also got the same trip planned for September it's no real issue. if before then all areas are given the all clear, i can always book a late hols for some sun and sea.......


----------



## NorthernSky (27 Feb 2020)

i'm hoping by may the weather will stem the spread 
they say the warmer weather normally does this


----------



## Fab Foodie (27 Feb 2020)

Dave7 said:


> You try telling that to my wife and 4 mistresses


Your wife has 4 mistresses?


----------



## Duffy (27 Feb 2020)

4 mistresses? 
Maybe he means 4 mattresses.
The expense, the expense 😀


----------



## Ming the Merciless (27 Feb 2020)

I like Skol said:


> Just heard a radio ad for Saga cruises, 35% off!
> Anybody fancy getting away from all the panic ....



35% off your life expectancy


----------



## Andy in Germany (27 Feb 2020)

NorthernSky said:


> holiday paid for to Greece in May
> the news has the life scared out of me now with this coronavirus, but i'm determined to go unless the foreign office advises against travel to the country at the time.
> anyone else got hols booked, plan of action?



Beautiful Wife and daughter were due to go to Japan in two weeks for her Brother's wedding.


----------



## Dave7 (27 Feb 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Your wife has 4 mistresses?


Noooooo they are mine, all mine.
I just can't remember what to do with them


----------



## derrick (27 Feb 2020)

Got three planned, Nothing stops me riding my bike. Going to the mountains so should be ok. Would not go on a cruise or anywhere you are confined, i suppose the worst bit must be on a plane. But hey ho. of on holiday i will go.


----------



## wormo (27 Feb 2020)

Sri Lanka booked for 2 weeks going tuesday. At present no reason why not going. Would only not go if specifically stopped.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Feb 2020)

Noel Edmunds is to be the face of the UK coronavirus information campaign.


----------



## kapelmuur (27 Feb 2020)

Belgium next month for Gent-Wevelgem and Tour of Flanders, spectating not racing.


----------



## MrGrumpy (27 Feb 2020)

Cruise booked and paid for, at Easter round the med  . What will be will be I suppose.


----------



## Jerry Atrik (27 Feb 2020)

Slovenia next Thursday to see Andre Boccelli on Saturday if they or him doesn’t cancel it .


----------



## fossyant (27 Feb 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Cruise booked and paid for, at Easter round the med  . What will be will be I suppose.



You might not be able to dock anywhere. See the news about a crew member who caught flu - the boat wasn't allowed to dock at two ports.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (27 Feb 2020)

Mod Note:
Merging with: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/


----------



## nickyboy (27 Feb 2020)

Mrs N is on a cruise in Europe in June. I've asked her to not book any independent excursions etc. Whilst she would get our money back in the event the cruise is cancelled the payments for excursions would very likely be lost

I'd be very reluctant to book flights, hotels etc for European events, at least for now


----------



## I like Skol (27 Feb 2020)

Jerry Atrik said:


> Slovenia next Thursday to see Andre Boccelli on Saturday if they or him doesn’t cancel it .


He normally does. Mrs Skol went to Italy to see him last year and he cancelled due to rain. She got the concert ticket refunded but not the trip costs. It was booked as a package!


nickyboy said:


> Whilst she would get our money back in the event the cruise is cancelled


I like your style, spoken like a real accountant.

In my house she would get her money back or we would get our money back


----------



## RoadRider400 (28 Feb 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Number of infected or died? Who knows how many were infected? Plenty of people must have just shrugged it off without a visit to the doctors.


Infected. Yes exactly some probably have it so mild they dont get tested.


----------



## RoadRider400 (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> If it was 1985 we'd now just be becoming aware of an issue in a city in deepest China, that we'd never heard of. We'd be worried, then we'd forget about it all together, then it'd be over.


yes we would probably forget. But it would not be over.
Anybody who doesnt think it will cause problems in the UK has their head in the sand.


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

And the govt advice to headteachers 

"Its up to you" !!!


----------



## Julia9054 (28 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> And the govt advice to headteachers
> 
> "Its up to you" !!!


Panicky phone calls from parents are taking up a considerable amount of time at my school. School ski trip recently returned from Northern Italy though the trip didn’t enter any of the towns on lockdown. We have gone with stay at home if you feel unwell, otherwise come to school as normal.


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Panicky phone calls from parents are taking up a considerable amount of time at my school. School ski trip recently returned from Northern Italy though the trip didn’t enter any of the towns on lockdown. We have gone with stay at home if you feel unwell, otherwise come to school as normal.



Seems sensible - I am not a headteacher, but if I was I would want some official guidelines though. Why do we have experts if the just toss the decision over the schools.


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

Aparently the latest garmin varia detects it - and sends a surge to you e-bike to pull you away from affected person - Ive told mrs KR that I obviously need one


----------



## nickyboy (28 Feb 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Panicky phone calls from parents are taking up a considerable amount of time at my school. School ski trip recently returned from Northern Italy though the trip didn’t enter any of the towns on lockdown. We have gone with stay at home if you feel unwell, otherwise come to school as normal.


It's a very difficult balance

It feels like the same people who were criticising China for not doing enough to quarantine the outbreak are now criticising the UK for overreacting

Perhaps people like the idea of other countries imposing restrictions but only if they aren't restricted themselves?


----------



## Mo1959 (28 Feb 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Panicky phone calls from parents are taking up a considerable amount of time at my school. School ski trip recently returned from Northern Italy though the trip didn’t enter any of the towns on lockdown. We have gone with stay at home if you feel unwell, otherwise come to school as normal.


Same here. 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/...sVc51BCbFjb_B0zneuTnOE36kdgBwrjfyPjXAuKwsW9NM


----------



## fossyant (28 Feb 2020)

Text message from SIL to Mrs F this morning. "Get two weeks shopping in as Corona Virus is in Buxton (we're 10 miles away). FFS. This panic buying will lead to shortages. It's not the Zombie Apocalypse. 

It's one person, who came back from Italy - it's nowhere near you. It's the same SIL that insisted on a Christmas Party for MIL in early November as she was dying and wouldn't make Christmas - MIL is still here and had a cold at the time - both SIL's are flappers ! 

I've already said to my wife, if it spreads here I'll definitely catch it - 30,000 students and 5000 staff in a small geographical area. 400 staff and about 8,000 students in my building alone. Already had a group of students and staff from our building told not to come in for two weeks as they have just come back from Northern Italy.

Panic buying is just going to lead to general shortages, before anyone is ill. If you do get ill, you ask a relative or friend to get you some shopping, really simple. Soap and water is just as good as hand sanitiser.


----------



## fossyant (28 Feb 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Panicky phone calls from parents are taking up a considerable amount of time at my school. School ski trip recently returned from Northern Italy though the trip didn’t enter any of the towns on lockdown. We have gone with stay at home if you feel unwell, otherwise come to school as normal.



We've had the same as a Uni, as quite a few of our placement schools have closed, where we send Teaching Students.


----------



## mjr (28 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Seems sensible - I am not a headteacher, but if I was I would want some official guidelines though. Why do we have experts if the just toss the decision over the schools.


They don't. There is guidance. Some people spread shoot on social media because they think that's funny, so check what you read. Here's the guidance: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...idance-to-educational-settings-about-covid-19


----------



## mjr (28 Feb 2020)

fossyant said:


> Soap and water is just as good as hand sanitiser.


As posted earlier, 40 seconds washing in soap and water is better than hand sanitiser. Hand sanitiser is better than nothing.


----------



## marinyork (28 Feb 2020)

fossyant said:


> We've had the same as a Uni, as quite a few of our placement schools have closed, where we send Teaching Students.



The posters and advice at uni haven't changed to reflect the unfortunate spread in Italy and Iran. It's quite odd.


----------



## fossyant (28 Feb 2020)

marinyork said:


> The posters and advice at uni haven't changed to reflect the unfortunate spread in Italy and Iran. It's quite odd.



We've got the NHS "catch it, bin it" posters up in all the toilets, and official advice from the Uni refers to the Gov't advice, but says don't come in if you've been to infected areas.


----------



## PeteXXX (28 Feb 2020)

Two Italian riders in UAE tour test positive.
Tour now cancelled. 

Froome & Cav tested


----------



## mjr (28 Feb 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> Two Italian riders in UAE tour test positive.
> Tour now cancelled.
> 
> Froome & Cav tested


Headline further down that page: "COVID-19 response: Not enough or over-reaction?"

Some news outlets really are festering shoots spreading panic, aren't they?


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

1 Confirmed in wales


----------



## Rocky (28 Feb 2020)

And our government has banned the Health Secretary from speaking on Coronavirus to The Today Programme on Radio 4............having said that Jeremy Hunt is making a better job of the briefings than Hancock would.


----------



## MarkF (28 Feb 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> yes we would probably forget. But it would not be over.
> Anybody who doesnt think it will cause problems in the UK has their head in the sand.



26000 flu associated deaths in the UK in 2017/18 and they didn't cause a problem to the UK's citizens normal day to day activities. It's now a hysteria virus.


----------



## Richard A Thackeray (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> 26000 flu associated deaths in the UK in 2017/18 and they didn't cause a problem to the UK's citizens normal day to day activities. It's now a hysteria virus.


True

We have a 'Pod' for testing now, but to save constant cleaning , the staff are testing patients, through their car windows


----------



## Rocky (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> 26000 flu associated deaths in the UK in 2017/18 and they didn't cause a problem to the UK's citizens normal day to day activities. It's now a hysteria virus.


I think you ought to reserve your criticism until we actually see what happens. Surely anything that prevents unnecessary deaths is a good thing - and certainly not hysterical.

......oh and by the way Public Health England and stock market listed companies (the FTSE is down 10% in a week) don't seem to agree with you.


----------



## MarkF (28 Feb 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think you ought to reserve your criticism until we actually see what happens. Surely anything that prevents unnecessary deaths is a good thing - and certainly not hysterical.
> 
> ......oh and by the way Public Health England and stock market listed companies (the FTSE is down 10% in a week) don't seem to agree with you.



It's clear the hysterical reaction is disproportionate to the risk of getting it, never mind dying. The world economy didn't suffer under Ebola, Swine, Sars, Mers etc and all were contained after low level media panic. Health technology has moved on but so has social media.


----------



## Rocky (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> It's clear the hysterical reaction is disproportionate to the risk of getting it, never mind dying. The world economy didn't suffer under Ebola, Swine, Sars, Mers etc and all were contained after low level media panic. Health technology has moved on but so has social media.


I hope that you are right in your assessment but the two medically qualified members of my family who are monitoring the spread of the virus tell me you are already wrong. The virus is far more infectious than those 'flu like ones you describe and far less easy to isolate victims than ebola. Ebola was largely confined locally in Africa and would therefore have very little effect on the global economy.

The major issue for the west, is that we are not able to quarantine (and isolate) towns like they are in China.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (28 Feb 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> yes we would probably forget. But it would not be over.
> Anybody who doesnt think it will cause problems in the UK has their head in the sand.



Ah but in 1985 there was a lot less air travel than now. Air travel was something the rich did. So it’d spread a lot slower.


----------



## MarkF (28 Feb 2020)

We'll see, I do hope I am not wrong but it appears to me to be just another "Virus news story" in a long line of them from the past 20 years. And, when you look at the risk, deaths, type of victim dying then I do feel we are witnessing a very hysterical self fueling reaction. People are walking around Leeds wearing face masks upside down! By summer we might have forgotten about it, then we'll need other bad news, time for that munition under the sea to wipe out half of Kent, or the mountain in Tenerife to slide down and Tsnuami out New York, been reading that for 20+ years too.

I have just looked at 2 stories from the past 4 days, one says the virus has peaked in China, the other says it's an unstoppable global march, yer takes yer pick!


----------



## MichaelO (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> By summer we might have forgotten about it


Once warm weather arrives, it'll disappear of it's own accord, like every other flu.


----------



## mjr (28 Feb 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Ah but in 1985 there was a lot less air travel than now. Air travel was something the rich did. So it’d spread a lot slower.


Also, not even the tabloids back then would run "OMG! Rich people are dying!!!1!" headlines because they'd get no sympathy.


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> 26000 flu associated deaths in the UK in 2017/18 and they didn't cause a problem to the UK's citizens normal day to day activities. It's now a hysteria virus.



Surely the concern is that corona virus could top those numbers ?

Its has higher mortality rate

It has a higher transmission rate 

Its been stated over and over that this isn't a variant of seasonal flu. Its a totally different virus - it seems to behave in a totally different way - and the UK isn't the only country planning or even implementing large scale lock downs.


----------



## stowie (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> It's clear the hysterical reaction is disproportionate to the risk of getting it, never mind dying. The world economy didn't suffer under Ebola, Swine, Sars, Mers etc and all were contained after low level media panic. Health technology has moved on but so has social media.



There is a degree of media focus on these new strains of disease which may become disproportionate to the risk posed.

But I can see why Coronavirus is of deep concern to health authorities.

There is no vaccine which is a highly effective way to restrict the spread of infectious diseases via herd immunity.
Reports appear to vary widely but it Coronavirus could be significantly more contagious than flu.
Coronavirus can be transmitted by people showing no symptoms and incubation period is quite long.

So, although the Coronavirus appears less deadly than many others, the population that could be exposed to it could rise very quickly indeed.


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## MarkF (28 Feb 2020)

Looking at the figures in Wuhan, if you are aged, in general poor health and maybe suffering from an existing ailment and then contract Coronovirus then your chances of surviving are 96-98%, outside Wuhan 99%+. For just about everybody else, poorly for a few days.


----------



## RoadRider400 (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> 26000 flu associated deaths in the UK in 2017/18 and they didn't cause a problem to the UK's citizens normal day to day activities. It's now a hysteria virus.


I will come back to this post in a month or so.


----------



## Rocky (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> Looking at the figures in Wuhan, if you are aged, in general poor health and maybe suffering from an existing ailment and then contract Coronovirus then your chances of surviving are 96-98%, outside Wuhan 99%+. For just about everybody else, poorly for a few days.


So using your figures and the fact that there's about 12,000,000 over 65s in the UK at the mo, how many would have to die before the response to Covid19 should no longer be considered hysterical?

I'm trying to gain an idea what is an acceptable number of deaths? You mention 26,000 deaths from 'flu as not really affecting the day to day life of UK citizens.


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> Looking at the figures in Wuhan, if you are aged, in general poor health and maybe suffering from an existing ailment and then contract Coronovirus then your chances of surviving are 96-98%, outside Wuhan 99%+. For just about everybody else, poorly for a few days.



What no one ever defines is existing ailment - I have asthma \ heart murmur - neither of which bothers me day to day (but are good excuses for being slow !!!)

My son has Asthma - and a problem with his oesophagus - He got flu just before his 21ST birthday - He was so poorly with it - he lost 2 stone in weight, was coughing up blood, and couldn't even swallow water at one stage - He was off work for nearly a month


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> So using your figures and the fact that there's about 12,000,000 over 65s in the UK at the mo, how many would have to die before the response to Covid19 should no longer be considered hysterical?
> 
> I'm trying to gain an idea what is an acceptable number of deaths? You mention 26,000 deaths from 'flu as not really affecting the day to day life of UK citizens.



And we know that flu goes away as we get into spring.


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## MarkF (28 Feb 2020)

Off to work, will be handling multiple infectious patients, same as ever, hospital well prepared for anything.


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> Looking at the figures in Wuhan, if you are aged, in general poor health and maybe suffering from an existing ailment and then contract Coronovirus then your chances of surviving are 96-98%, outside Wuhan 99%+. For just about everybody else, poorly for a few days.



This doesn't seem to be the case. 

Estimated 10x higher mortality rate than seasonal flu. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-truth-myths-flu-covid-19-face-masks

Do you have a source for your claims?


----------



## MichaelO (28 Feb 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This doesn't seem to be the case.
> 
> Estimated 10x higher mortality rate than seasonal flu.
> 
> ...


It is 10 times higher, overall. But much higher in elderly/those with pre-existing. For healthy non-elderly, you'll be ill for a week or so, but not die from it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51540981


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## marinyork (28 Feb 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This doesn't seem to be the case.
> 
> Estimated 10x higher mortality rate than seasonal flu.
> 
> ...



A virologist was on BBC news earlier, and a shame these comments don't get published more widely. 

They said that most of the information they were using to make judgements was from the gigantic cruise ship where loads of people got infected. Unfortunately he wasn't given enough time to say what the pluses and minuses of basing on this data was. He said based on the cruise ship and reasonably advanced health systems it was 5x more fatal than seasonal flu, which meant COVID-19 might kill about 0.5% of patients, but that it was ball park figure seemed to be about twice as likely to be caught/spread than many other flus. He also had commentary about the speed and health consequences of managing it. That a slowdown outside of winter was more manageable. Be interesting to see print versions.


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This doesn't seem to be the case.
> 
> Estimated 10x higher mortality rate than seasonal flu.
> 
> ...



I think he means it probably won't kill him.


----------



## nickyboy (28 Feb 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> So using your figures and the fact that there's about 12,000,000 over 65s in the UK at the mo, how many would have to die before the response to Covid19 should no longer be considered hysterical?
> 
> I'm trying to gain an idea what is an acceptable number of deaths? You mention 26,000 deaths from 'flu as not really affecting the day to day life of UK citizens.


And these are deaths of loved ones..friends, family. Maybe oneself. The biggest issue is complacency; people saying it's just like the flu (clue: it isn't)

Don't forget that this time last week Italy had 2 cases. Now, a week later it has 650+. UK has three more today. Maybe this time next week there will be hundreds. Maybe there won't. But complacency is our biggest enemy. Everybody should be taking sensible precautions and we shouldn't be criticising bodies (like schools) that take seemingly excessive actions


----------



## Milkfloat (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> 26000 flu associated deaths in the UK in 2017/18 and they didn't cause a problem to the UK's citizens normal day to day activities. It's now a hysteria virus.


Wheer are you getting your 26,000 number from?

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> For healthy non-elderly, you'll be ill for a week or so, but not die from it.



But the link you provide does not support this, indeed it directly contradicts it, reporting the death of a healthy 51 yo hospital director. 

If it's even 1 in 1000 of healthy people that's a catastrophe in public health terms.


----------



## Fab Foodie (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> Off to work, will be handling multiple infectious patients, same as ever, hospital well prepared for anything.


In you we trust....


----------



## gavroche (28 Feb 2020)

We should all go to the USA until it is over then as , we all know, they have God on their side.


----------



## Fab Foodie (28 Feb 2020)

Now had 3 European customers decline my expert services due to Coronavirus fears....


----------



## Rezillo (28 Feb 2020)

There's a study of the critically ill end of the infection spectrum here:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext

It's the loading of these critically ill patients that has a knock-on effect on healthcare services (and mortality figures).

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30068-1/fulltext


----------



## greenmark (28 Feb 2020)

marinyork said:


> A virologist was on BBC news earlier, and a shame these comments don't get published more widely.
> 
> They said that most of the information they were using to make judgements was from the gigantic cruise ship where loads of people got infected. Unfortunately he wasn't given enough time to say what the pluses and minuses of basing on this data was. He said based on the cruise ship and reasonably advanced health systems it was 5x more fatal than seasonal flu, which meant COVID-19 might kill about 0.5% of patients, but that it was ball park figure seemed to be about twice as likely to be caught/spread than many other flus. He also had commentary about the speed and health consequences of managing it. That a slowdown outside of winter was more manageable. Be interesting to see print versions.



The cruise ship in question is the Diamond Princess. It is where every passenger was tested. 
Of the 700 or so that tested positive, about half were not showing any symptoms. Some have developed symptoms later.
34 remain serious, and about 5 are critical. 

Two more passengers died today, bringing the total to 6 so far. 
The passengers are generally older than the general population. But they are being treated in a very advanced healthcare system. It seems the expert's estimate was a little premature. If more passengers succumb we might be looking at a mortality rate closer to 1%.


----------



## MichaelO (28 Feb 2020)

greenmark said:


> The cruise ship in question is the Diamond Princess. It is where every passenger was tested.
> Of the 700 or so that tested positive, about half were not showing any symptoms. Some have developed symptoms later.
> 34 remain serious, and about 5 are critical.
> 
> ...


The ship had 3,711 on board (including crew), with the vast majority staying on board during the quarantine period. Surprised "only" 700 tested positive, given the (relatively) confined space they were in.


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## Rocky (28 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> The ship had 3,711 on board (including crew), with the vast majority staying on board during the quarantine period. Surprised "only" 700 tested positive, given the (relatively) confined space they were in.


And tragically 6 have died.


----------



## mjr (28 Feb 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Now had 3 European customers decline my expert services due to Coronavirus fears....


Diesel.


----------



## nickyboy (28 Feb 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Now had 3 European customers decline my expert services due to Coronavirus fears....


Business travel is grinding to a halt. I've postponed a trip that would have required me to be away for a couple of weeks in March as I have no way of knowing what the places I will transit through or visit will look like then


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## Fab Foodie (28 Feb 2020)

mjr said:


> Diesel.


More likely it’s because I’m simply useless!


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Feb 2020)

The young do not have a well developed immune system, elderley / sedentary people have a greatly shrunken thymus. The thymus is where the T cells of the immune system mature. So although apparently healthy their immune system has much reduced ability to quickly react to foreign pathogens. If the foreign pathogens / viruses can quickly gain the upper hand before the immune system gets a hand on it, it can lead to organ failure, and ultimately death. Vaccinations involve weakened forms of viruses to prime the immune system, so it can quickly recognise and react to a virus. There are currently no vaccinations for Covid19.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (28 Feb 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Now had 3 European customers decline my expert services due to Coronavirus fears....



How long have you worked in the massage parlour?


----------



## Archie_tect (28 Feb 2020)

Played badminton as usual this morning. Everyone's a healthy 60+.

In passing one man casually mentioned, as we were packing up, that he'd returned home on a charter flight from a 4 night break in Tenerife yesterday, and that he stayed near to the outbreak hotel! We were not overly impressed that he seemed unaware of any risk as he could've easily stayed away for a couple of weeks...


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## Archie_tect (28 Feb 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> How long have you worked in the massage parlour?


God moaning... you have a massage?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (28 Feb 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> God moaning... you have a massage?



The massage isn't over till the moaning stops?


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## MarkF (28 Feb 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Played badminton as usual this morning. Everyone's a healthy 60+.
> 
> In passing one man casually mentioned, as we were packing up, that he'd returned home on a charter flight from a 4 night break in Tenerife yesterday, and that he stayed near to the outbreak hotel! We were not overly impressed that he seemed unaware of any risk as he could've easily stayed away for a couple of weeks...



Scary sport, those sturdy fast moving shuttlecocks must pose a significant eye injury threat.



MichaelO said:


> The ship had 3,711 on board (including crew), with the vast majority staying on board during the quarantine period. Surprised "only" 700 tested positive, given the (relatively) confined space they were in.





Brompton Bruce said:


> And tragically 6 have died.



Isn't that a death ratio of 0.16%? That's way lower than for an old bloke laid up in hospital Wuhan, if the time comes I'll be self isolating on an all inclusive caribbean cruise.


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## MarkF (28 Feb 2020)

The risk of contracting mass hysteria is much higher than coronovirus

The most dangerous thing about coronovirus is the hysteria.


----------



## Rocky (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> Scary sport, those sturdy fast moving shuttlecocks must pose a significant eye injury threat.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'm sure you are being flippant......both the doctors in my family (spouse and younger son) are taking this a little more seriously though. The evidence is that this has just begun and will get dramatically worse. Prof Peter Piot from the LSHTM thinks so too


View: https://twitter.com/FT/status/1233364095224729601?s=20


(It's behind a paywall but you can get a couple of free articles a month)


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## MichaelO (28 Feb 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The evidence is that this has just begun and will get dramatically worse.


I genuinely interested - what evidence?


----------



## Archie_tect (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> Scary sport, those sturdy fast moving shuttlecocks must pose a significant eye injury threat.


It's the racket heads cracking your head open that you have to trust will miss you... only had one this year so far... Mark, if I get flu I get flu but not seeking out any and every opportunity to find it!


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## Rocky (28 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> I genuinely interested - what evidence?


Did you read Prof Piot's article?


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## MarkF (28 Feb 2020)

Of course l think it will get worse, l also think the death rate will remain low & very, very low for most of us. It won't be the last such virus we see but they'll go the same way, die out through vaccine/immunisation or have to be accepted as a health risk, like many far worse viruses are. Its not in the top 10 of viruses you wouldn't like to get....


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## MarkF (28 Feb 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> It's the racket heads cracking your head open that you have to trust will miss you... only had one this year so far... Mark, if I get flu I get flu but not seeking out any and every opportunity to find it!


 Its the doubles that scares me.


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## MichaelO (28 Feb 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Did you read Prof Piot's article?


The article spent more time describing their meal than giving any substantial evidence about coronavirus!


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> l also think the death rate will remain low & very, very low for most of us.



Can you provide figures for what "very, very, low" means, and a source for those figures?

Otherwise this is just personal speculation.


----------



## Rocky (28 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> The article spent more time describing their meal than giving any substantial evidence about coronavirus!


It depends on what you mean about substantial.......I agree that it is a character piece and never meant to provide epidemiological data. However, given someone of his stature is concerned about the severity of the current crisis, speaks volumes. Here's another quote from him on the BBC Today Programme:

_“We can’t be over prepared. Whether this is a pandemic or not is immaterial because it doesn’t make any difference to what we have to do. Every country has to prepare and some are better prepared than others. The UK have one *of* the best public health systems in in the world and all measures up to now have been able to contain the spread, but in today’s world an epidemic thousands *of* miles away from here is no longer just a local affair.”_

And this from the NY Times: *about the situation in Iran, amid the country reporting the highest number of deaths from the virus outside of China. Peter said: *_“It is a recipe for a massive viral outbreak.”_


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## MarkF (28 Feb 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Can you provide figures for what "very, very, low" means, and a source for those figures?
> 
> Otherwise this is just personal speculation.


The generally accepted figures are low for "at risk" and very, very low for others. I am sure you have read them but here you go, similar to many others.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51540981


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## mjr (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> The risk of contracting mass hysteria is much higher than coronovirus
> 
> The most dangerous thing about coronovirus is the hysteria.


First article is from the Irish Times, says "The threat from the virus is real" but cites no sources for most stuff. Also says "the mortality rate among people infected with flu is about 0.13 per cent. The risk of dying from coronavirus is thought to be around 2 per cent".

Second is from the Speckly 'Tater, cites the US CDC for seasonal flu deaths but not cases and gives no source for its claim of "79,331 confirmed cases worldwide" and about 2600 deaths, which disagrees slightly with the WHO Situation Report for the day given (Monday). Its conclusion inexplicably confuses the new case number peaking in China with peaking globally.

A far more reliable discussion of the numbers can be obtained from More or Less: Behind the Stats: WS More or Less: Coronavirus - The Numbers http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p083d5yv - that's from 15 Feb, but I'm sure an update will be along if anything fundamental changes.


----------



## Fab Foodie (28 Feb 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> How long have you worked in the massage parlour?


Damn....busted!


----------



## nickyboy (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> The risk of contracting mass hysteria is much higher than coronovirus
> 
> The most dangerous thing about coronovirus is the hysteria.


With respect, I'll go with the WHO and a whole cohort of experts in epidemiology than unreferenced pieces written by The Spectator and the Irish Times

People who seek to suggest that the risk has been overstated point to China and say that they have it under control with only a couple of thousand deaths. That's true. But China is uniquely placed to have the political system and resources to lock down a whole nation. Western countries cannot take the China approach. To see what might work take a look at Singapore. That's much more like a Western country and it has succeeded in slowing the rate of infection. How has it done this? By throwing enormous resource at the problem. They track down contacts of known cases, test rigorously, quarantine effectively. It requires a huge effort

The alternative to this huge effort is that we accept an infection model more like Italy (which had only two cases 7 days ago). If we do that we risk accepting large scale deaths of those vulnerable to the virus. Comparing Coronavirus to flu is a false equivalence. Coronavirus is much more deadly. Coronavirus is much more transmittable. Coronavirus has a much longer period when it is transmittable before symptoms become apparent


----------



## SteveF (28 Feb 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Damn....busted!


Only at the end


----------



## RoadRider400 (28 Feb 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This doesn't seem to be the case.
> 
> Estimated 10x higher mortality rate than seasonal flu.
> 
> ...



At least 10x higher, and then there are the number of people needing ICU treatment which is being reported as much higher than other flu strains. I honestly question how much research some people are doing. Are they intentionally being pig ignorant? Or if they just believe what other people have told them.

I wonder at what point the deniers will finally wake up from their normalcy bias.


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## MarkF (28 Feb 2020)

I doubt that we are not all reading the same things but coming to a different opinion, doesn't mean we are being pig ignorant. We all make our risk assessments in life, helmets an example, I work in a hospital but I've never had a flu jab in my life, doesn't mean I'll never have one when I am older. Am I worried about coronovirus? Nope and I will no doubt encounter it before most on here. Am I worried about contracting a worse infection? Yep. Despite fastidious personal hygiene one co-worker won't work again after last summer & another close co-worker nearly lost his leg in winter, I'll take coronovirus over MRSA any time thank you.

I am old enough to recall the swine flu fiasco in the USA where steps taken to help, caused more deaths than the flu.


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> I doubt that we are not all reading the same things but coming to a different opinion, doesn't mean we are being pig ignorant. We all make our risk assessments in life, helmets an example, I work in a hospital but I've never had a flu jab in my life, doesn't mean I'll never have one when I am older. Am I worried about coronovirus? Nope and I will no doubt encounter it before most on here. Am I worried about contracting a worse infection? Yep. Despite fastidious personal hygiene one co-worker won't work again after last summer & another close co-worker nearly lost his leg in winter, I'll take coronovirus over MRSA any time thank you.
> 
> I am old enough to recall the swine flu fiasco in the USA where steps taken to help, caused more deaths than the flu.



I work in a hospital - but not in a clinical role. My understanding that death from MRSA is rare and there have been massive improvement s over recent years.

Obviously if young with no health conditions there is good chance u will be ok.
But a 2% fatality rate amongst older people , could impact a lot of people -and also impact on the NHS to deliver other services.

I've not made any lifestyle changes and will still be out socialising this weekend. I wouldn't be dismissive of this though.


----------



## nickyboy (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> I doubt that we are not all reading the same things but coming to a different opinion, doesn't mean we are being pig ignorant. We all make our risk assessments in life, helmets an example, I work in a hospital but I've never had a flu jab in my life, doesn't mean I'll never have one when I am older. Am I worried about coronovirus? Nope and I will no doubt encounter it before most on here. Am I worried about contracting a worse infection? Yep. Despite fastidious personal hygiene one co-worker won't work again after last summer & another close co-worker nearly lost his leg in winter, I'll take coronovirus over MRSA any time thank you.
> 
> I am old enough to recall the swine flu fiasco in the USA where steps taken to help, caused more deaths than the flu.


I'm not concerned about catching it either. But I am concerned about catching it and passing it on to members of my family more vulnerable than me. That's the issue for people in low risk categories such as yourself (I presume)


----------



## Rocky (28 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm not concerned about catching it either. But I am concerned about catching it and passing it on to members of my family more vulnerable than me. That's the issue for people in low risk categories such as yourself (I presume)


And that is why all NHS staff are strongly recommended to have a seasonal 'flu jab.........to prevent its spread.


----------



## Wobblers (28 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> Isn't that a death ratio of 0.16%? That's way lower than for an old bloke laid up in hospital Wuhan, if the time comes I'll be self isolating on an all inclusive caribbean cruise.



Six deaths out of 700 infections is a death rate of close to 1%. Given that the infection has yet to run its course, it's likely that this rate will increase, sadly.

To put that into perspective, consider that, as @Brompton Bruce says, there's about 12 million over 65's in the UK. The total infection rate from that cruise ship was close to 20% (700 out of 3700 people onboard). That suggests that we could expect 2.4 million infections in this elderly - and vulnerable - population. A mortality of 1% means 24,000 deaths due to Covid-19. Compare that to flu: the winter of 2017-18 was considered to be exceptionally bad with about 350 deaths attributed to flu. Note that I've assumed that all those who become seriously ill get the treatment they require. In a major epidemic, that is unlikely: ICU places are a limited resource that will likely become overwhelmed. This is by no means the worst possible outcome.

I've based this on the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak - but these figures are reasonably similar to other sources: analysis of the infection rate gives numbers that indicate that between 30 and 60% of a vulnerable population will become infected. Data from China gives a mortality rate of 1-2% for elderly people.

The good news is that fewer people became infected than expected, especially considering the crowded conditions onboard a ship - that indicates that sensible precautions can make a significant reduction to the risk of becoming ill. There seems little justification in being complacent, but nor is there any need to panic. Over 95% of all infections are minor! Diligently washing hands and minimising your exposure to crowds and crowded areas will significantly reduce your exposure.


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## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

1st UK transmission confirmed


----------



## Smokin Joe (28 Feb 2020)

There are about 80,000 confirmed cases of Corona virus in China, out of a population of 1.42 billion. If my maths is correct (Or I've typed it into the online calculator correctly) that represents less than 1% of the population.
Doesn't seem so bad when you say it like that.


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> There are about 80,000 confirmed cases of Corona virus in China, out of a population of 1.42 billion. If my maths is correct (Or I've typed it into the online calculator correctly) that represents less than 1% of the population.
> Doesn't seem so bad when you say it like that.


Yes - but China can force everyone to stay in doors.
Our economy depends on people buying stuff - and the free west can't imprison it's citizens.


----------



## slowmotion (28 Feb 2020)

I'm totally confused. Is the general consensus amongst the parishioners ….

a) we're all going to die
b) everything's pretty much OK
c) who cares either way? I like worrying.

?


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

Some good news though.
I don't what the feck I've eaten - but MRs KR reckons the aroma coming from my arse could kill the virus.


----------



## Milzy (28 Feb 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I'm totally confused. Is the general consensus amongst the parishioners ….
> 
> a) we're all going to die
> b) everything's pretty much OK
> ...


D) Earth needs a cull and doesn't want to pay out pensions?


----------



## Smokin Joe (28 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yes - but China can force everyone to stay in doors.
> Our economy depends on people buying stuff - and the free west can't imprison it's citizens.


True enough, but from what I gather they were slow to act when the virus first appeared whereas at least we're ready from the off.

This is all said without a view one way or the other, though. I wouldn't claim to have a clue about how dangerous this virus is or how likely that we can manage it..


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

On the bright side I could be the only guy to survive and the only remaining female is seriously hot.


----------



## icowden (28 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> With respect, I'll go with the WHO and a whole cohort of experts in epidemiology than unreferenced pieces written by The Spectator and the Irish Times
> 
> People who seek to suggest that the risk has been overstated point to China and say that they have it under control with only a couple of thousand deaths. That's true. But China is uniquely placed to have the political system and resources to lock down a whole nation.



Hmmmm, you say that you respect the data from the WHO and experts in epidemiology, but then say you believe information on infection and death rate provided by the Chinese Government, that bastion of free speech and open discussion. The whole reason that the risk cannot be better calculated is due to :

China being a primary source of information.
China having a massively high population density 
China having a very high proportion of elderly citizens.
No-one knows whether the figures published by China are even vaguely accurate.


----------



## fossyant (28 Feb 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm not concerned about catching it either. But I am concerned about catching it and passing it on to members of my family more vulnerable than me. That's the issue for people in low risk categories such as yourself (I presume)



That's my issue too. My son is T1, so if he caught it, despite being fit, we'd have to watch his blood sugars constantly, as any virus can go either high or low in a T1, and if they can't test from being ill. Also my parents, and mainly MIL which is a worry. Flu is bad enough for her.


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

Prediction s for the next 7 days then ?


----------



## slowmotion (28 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Prediction s for the next 7 days then ?


Ask William Hill.


----------



## kingrollo (28 Feb 2020)

Italy went from 0 cases to 21 dead in a week. - think they have around 600 cases now.


----------



## vickster (28 Feb 2020)

Might be worth getting Gilead shares 
https://pharmaphorum.com/news/us-trials-of-gileads-remdesivir-begin-against-covid-19-coronavirus


----------



## Ming the Merciless (28 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Prediction s for the next 7 days then ?



It‘ll be wet and windy and I’m going to ride my bike away from enclosed spaces full of people.


----------



## stephec (28 Feb 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Now had 3 European customers decline my expert services due to Coronavirus fears....


On a similar note, last week I was at a factory where a new bottle filling machine was being installed by an Italian company. 

Today I go in to find they've all been sent home, apparently they've been there since the new year but used to go home each weekend, now they've been told to stay away until April. 

And I shook the boss's hand last week.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (28 Feb 2020)

stephec said:


> On a similar note, last week I was at a factory where a new bottle filling machine was being installed by an Italian company.
> 
> Today I go in to find they've all been sent home, apparently they've been there since the new year but used to go home each weekend, now they've been told to stay away until April.
> 
> And I shook the boss's hand last week.


Was nice knowing you.


What size frames are your bikes?


----------



## The Central Scrutinizer (28 Feb 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Was nice knowing you.
> 
> 
> What size frames are your bikes?



🤣


----------



## Rusty Nails (28 Feb 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I'm totally confused. Is the general consensus amongst the parishioners ….
> 
> a) we're all going to die
> b) everything's pretty much OK
> ...



What thread have you been reading? Nobody thinks a), but don't let that stop you.


----------



## slowmotion (28 Feb 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> What thread have you been reading? Nobody thinks a), but don't let that stop you.


I'm guessing that you are c) ?


----------



## lazybloke (29 Feb 2020)

MarkF said:


> Off to work, will be handling multiple infectious patients, same as ever, hospital well prepared for anything.


I hope other hospital staff understand the potential of this virus. As far as I can see, the spread is already of control.
This morning, it had spread to 50 countries. Tonight it's 60 countries.


----------



## greenmark (29 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Prediction s for the next 7 days then ?



Italy currently has some 880 cases.

China had 845 tested positive on 23 January. Seven days later they had 9,800. Seven days after that they had over 30,000 positive tests.

And all that was during their lock-down, and during the time that they did not have enough test kits to test everyone.


----------



## stephec (29 Feb 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Was nice knowing you.
> 
> 
> What size frames are your bikes?


Charming! 😂


----------



## Fab Foodie (29 Feb 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I'm totally confused. Is the general consensus amongst the parishioners ….
> 
> a) we're all going to die
> b) everything's pretty much OK
> ...


If you have been listening to LBC phone-ins, then the answer is YES.


----------



## Fab Foodie (29 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> On the bright side I could be the only guy to survive and the only remaining female is seriously hot.


....and LGBTQ etc....


----------



## Milzy (29 Feb 2020)

Is it a massive over reaction then?


----------



## nickyboy (29 Feb 2020)

Take a look at what @greenmark posted several weeks ago. HK has managed to slow the rate of infection by massively resourcing the effort and relying on a population experienced in dealing with these things. 

I hope all those people saying it's just flu, relax etc etc in UK still follow the advice re hand washing etc



greenmark said:


> Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.
> 
> First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.
> 
> ...


----------



## kingrollo (29 Feb 2020)

So one of the UK measures being considered.......

Scrap the maximum class size for schools ??????

Scrap the maximum hours a lorry driver can drive 

....the only logic is that porky Johnson was probably going to do this anyway.


----------



## marinyork (29 Feb 2020)

greenmark said:


> Italy currently has some 880 cases.
> 
> China had 845 tested positive on 23 January. Seven days later they had 9,800. Seven days after that they had over 30,000 positive tests.
> 
> And all that was during their lock-down, and during the time that they did not have enough test kits to test everyone.



The Italy maps reported in the UK are very out of date. There are coronavirus cases going quite a long way south from the 11 towns and even south of the DOH's line 'north of Pisa'.


----------



## I like Skol (29 Feb 2020)

Just realised, I've been sneezing a bit in the last 24-36hrs. Nothing else, but definitely an unusual number of sneezes......


----------



## kingrollo (29 Feb 2020)

I like Skol said:


> Just realised, I've been sneezing a bit in the last 24-36hrs. Nothing else, but definitely an unusual number of sneezes......


My wife's coughing
like nobodies business !!!! - normal stuff stuff for this time of year I suppose.
Apart from the hygeine measures there's feck all you can do.
A colleague of mine who wasn't even I'll dropped dead in the office a few weeks back - age just 58 ....you can't choose when you die


----------



## Rusty Nails (29 Feb 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I'm guessing that you are c) ?



Guess away. It'll be as accurate as your previous posts on this topic.


----------



## Poacher (29 Feb 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So one of the UK measures being considered.......
> 
> Scrap the maximum class size for schools ??????
> 
> ...


Purely temporary legislation which will be revoked when the emergency is deemed to have ended.


----------



## kingrollo (29 Feb 2020)

Poacher said:


> Purely temporary legislation which will be revoked when the emergency is deemed to have ended.


Yeah right ! - this will soon be the norm if a teacher or lorry driver calls in sick.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (29 Feb 2020)

Milzy said:


> Is it a massive over reaction then?



Unlikely. 

Only three were reported in Italy last Friday. Today there are 888. But because 21 have died there, the actual number of Italians infected is likely much higher, because firstly only c1% are fatal, but more importantly on average it should take around two weeks or more - this is also consistent with other indications that the virus is likely to have been in Italy for weeks.

Similarly 43 have died in Iran, yet the total number of cases is apparently only 593.

While it might not be 100% effective in isolating the sick, everyone in and out of Hongkong airport had their temperature checked a month ago (I happened to be there) and would be barred from flights if they had a fever. This seems still not the case with flights out of Italy to Europe or UK, and afaik there is still no control on any European land borders either.

I think the opportunity to contain it has unfortunately long gone.


----------



## Racing roadkill (29 Feb 2020)

Here’s the latest advice from the W.H.O.


----------



## kingrollo (29 Feb 2020)

The UK rumoured response would seem to prioritize the economy of saving lives.


----------



## Fab Foodie (29 Feb 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/news/20...ve-she-has-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


----------



## MichaelO (29 Feb 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> While it might not be 100% effective in isolating the sick, everyone in and out of Hongkong airport had their temperature checked a month ago (I happened to be there) and would be barred from flights if they had a fever. This seems still not the case with flights out of Italy to Europe or UK, and afaik there is still no control on any European land borders either.
> 
> I think the opportunity to contain it has unfortunately long gone.


Not true - we had our temperatures taken as we arrived at Rome airport over two weeks ago.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (29 Feb 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Here’s the latest advice from the W.H.O.
> View attachment 506419



Any sedentary person aged 40 upwards then.


----------



## Fab Foodie (29 Feb 2020)

MichaelO said:


> Not true - we had our temperatures taken as we arrived at Rome airport over two weeks ago.


Same here!


----------



## slowmotion (29 Feb 2020)

Four and a half weeks ago, Colombo Airport in Sri Lanka had a Flir IR camera taking temperature readings of everybody passing through arrivals.


----------



## marinyork (29 Feb 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Same here!



Italty. Bologna airport was taking temperatures with infra red readers on peoples' foreheads of all non-schengen arrivals 3.5 weeks ago. There were no outbound checks whatsoever though.


----------



## Fab Foodie (29 Feb 2020)

marinyork said:


> Italty. Bologna airport was taking temperatures with infra red readers on peoples' foreheads of all non-schengen arrivals 3.5 weeks ago. There were no outbound checks whatsoever though.


Same as Rome then....
Nothing coming into the UK.


----------



## GetAGrip (1 Mar 2020)

Wouldn't fatalities for the elderly from this virus be in addition to the death rate from flu, ie. attacking older/vulnerable folk who have had the flue jab. I do worry that there seems to be a "don't panic it's only the old and they're going to die soon anyway" attitude. Surely the elderly alone are somebodies Granny, Grandad, uncle etc. and as such are just as important part of the community as the rest of us. Stepping up personal, home and work hygiene practises is just common sense. Taking care of each others needs should not be deemed as panick.


----------



## Fab Foodie (1 Mar 2020)

Just starting the week today by flying to Hungary via Vienna, then Hamburg, Bremerhaven and back to the UK, home to Deal via Abingdon and Nottingham. If that doesn’t get this virus spread I don’t know what will....


----------



## Andy in Germany (1 Mar 2020)

Germany seems to be holding steady with 57 cases and no deaths as of today. They're investing a lot in tracking down anyone who may have had contact with a known patient and isolating them ASAP. I'm wondering if they'll close the borders (as in, put checks in place, not stretch barbed wire over the road) it's been done before on occasions like this.

Meanwhile Brother in Law in Japan has been told to cancel his wedding celebration. I can see the point of this as he and his bride are doctors and about 98% of the guests work in major hospitals in Tokyo.


----------



## Mo1959 (1 Mar 2020)

GetAGrip said:


> I do worry that there seems to be a "don't panic it's only the old and they're going to die soon anyway" attitude. Surely the elderly alone are somebodies Granny, Grandad, uncle etc. and as such are just as important part of the community as the rest of us.


Totally agree. We are all going to be elderly some day. Most elderly people I know still love life and want to continue living for a bit longer. I don't like feeling like they are somehow being pushed down the list of priorities.


----------



## marinyork (1 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Same as Rome then....
> Nothing coming into the UK.



Well somewhat earlier than Rome was quoted, although given the 14 day monitoring and isolation, probably just as well.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Mar 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Germany seems to be holding steady with 57 cases and no deaths as of today. They're investing a lot in tracking down anyone who may have had contact with a known patient and isolating them ASAP. I'm wondering if they'll close the borders (as in, put checks in place, not stretch barbed wire over the road) it's been done before on occasions like this.
> 
> Meanwhile Brother in Law in Japan has been told to cancel his wedding celebration. I can see the point of this as he and his bride are doctors and about 98% of the guests work in major hospitals in Tokyo.


Unless the people collecting the German results are sick with CV


----------



## kingrollo (1 Mar 2020)

It's bit like cycling. We know the risks and take steps to minimise them.

I upped my handwashing and told family to do same . I'm not sitting in the house like a hermit unless I am instructed to do so.

Not much you can do - like cycling a lot comes down to luck.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Mar 2020)

Rumours UK up to 35 positive cases now.

Good luck all !!


----------



## MichaelO (1 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Rumours UK up to 35 positive cases now.
> 
> Good luck all !!


Of which 8 have already made a full recovery.


----------



## MarkF (1 Mar 2020)

lazybloke said:


> I hope other hospital staff understand the potential of this virus. As far as I can see, the spread is already of control.
> This morning, it had spread to 50 countries. Tonight it's 60 countries.



Probably think the same as me, it certainly will spread further but it's not going to kill like the bubonic plague did, tbh, most I work with are sick of hearing about it. Many would be surprised at what the NHS is prepared for, at any moment, and just as at most hospitals, mobile "pods" appeared at mine, just like that, up and ready to test people 100's of people away from the regular areas.

I am not sure but think the facility has been used once, to test a family with a poorly child who had just flown in from Hong Kong. Tests were done and they were told to self isolate for several days whilst awaiting the test results. The mother instead whined to local rag about the problems that this was causing and admitted to going shopping because she "had to".


----------



## Rocky (1 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Probably think the same as me, it certainly will spread further but it's not going to kill like the bubonic plague did, tbh, most I work with are sick of hearing about. Many would be surprised at what the NHS is prepared for, at any moment, and just as at most hospitals, mobile "pods" appeared at mine, just like that, up and ready to test people 100's of people away from the regular areas.


Do you mind me asking....are you clinically qualified Mark? It’s just I seem to be getting a very different message about the seriousness of this from the two doctors in my household.


----------



## MarkF (1 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Do you mind me asking....are you clinically qualified Mark? It’s just I seem to be getting a very different message about the seriousness of this from the two doctors in my household.



No, I am an electrician. That's why I never offer medical advice.


----------



## vickster (1 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Rumours UK up to 35 positive cases now.
> 
> Good luck all !!


Out of 67m inhabitants...

How many have been diagnosed with measles in the Uk this year for example?

There have been 546 case of mumps reported in January 2020 in England, a disease that is preventable through vaccination...a nasty disease that can cause inflammation of the testicles (and with it male infertility), and in rare cases, meningitis and deafness. Are we all up to date with our MMR?


----------



## Rusty Nails (1 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Totally agree. We are all going to be elderly some day. Most elderly people I know still love life and want to continue living for a bit longer. I don't like feeling like they are somehow being pushed down the list of priorities.



At least we haven't had the comments about the elderly being responsible for Brexit.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Out of 67m inhabitants...
> 
> How many have been diagnosed with measles in the Uk this year for example?
> 
> The have been 546 case of mumps reported in January 2020 in England, a disease that is preventable through vaccination...a nasty disease that can cause inflammation of the testicles (and with it male infertility), and in rare cases, meningitis and deafness. Are we all up to date with our MMR?



Not sure of you're point ?? - whilst I don't doubt the above is true - you only have to look at Italy which went 3 to 600 infections in just over week - I could be wrong - but I don't see mumps escalating at that rate.

I won't deny the odd are stacked in your favour - (although I m 56 with Asthma so perhaps mine aren't quite as good) - As I have said a couple of posts back - there isn't a lot you can do - other than wash youre hands and hope for the best - but that doesn't mean it isn't a concern.


----------



## vickster (1 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not sure of you're point ?? - whilst I don't doubt the above is true - you only have to look at Italy which went 3 to 600 infections in just over week - I could be wrong - but I don't see mumps escalating at that rate.
> 
> I won't deny the odd are stacked in your favour - (although I m 56 with Asthma so perhaps mine aren't quite as good) - As I have said a couple of posts back - there isn't a lot you can do - other than wash youre hands and hope for the best - but that doesn't mean it isn't a concern.


The point is that everyone is focused on Coronavirus but most adults are not not up to date with their MMR which protects against 3 potentially nasty preventable diseases which can lead to life long problems for all age groups, healthy and less healthy. There should be a push to get adults vaccinated asap and the UK to regain its herd immunity.
Yes of course we should all wash our hands properly after sneezing, going to the loo, before eating


----------



## kingrollo (1 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> The point is that everyone is focused on Coronavirus but most adults are not not up to date with their MMR which protects against 3 potentially nasty preventable diseases which can lead to life long problems for all age groups, healthy and less healthy. There should be a push to get adults vaccinated asap and the UK to regain its herd immunity.
> Yes of course we should all wash our hands properly after sneezing, going to the loo, before eating



Would you have been called in for an MMR - or do you have to ask ? - Both my lads had it.

I still don't think it compares to an illness which has killed 3k people this year for which there is no vaccination or cure.


----------



## vickster (1 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Would you have been called in for an MMR - or do you have to ask ? - Both my lads had it.
> 
> I still don't think it compares to an illness which has killed 3k people this year for which there is no vaccination or cure.


Ask your GP. I had it when I went to Latin America where measles is endemic.

140000 people died of measles in 2018, 10 million cases. 2019 expected to be worse once data collated


----------



## MarkF (1 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I still don't think it compares to an illness which has killed 3k people this year for which there is no vaccination or cure.



But 1.5 million people died from tubercolosis in 2018.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> But 1.5 million people died from tubercolosis in 2018.



Again not sure of the point [TB I believe has a vaccination ?] - Im not saying other diseases aren't concerning - but a new illness, which we know very little about - appears to spread quite easily - has no cure or vaccination - is a big deal IMO - Thats not say im sitting here shitting myself 24/7 - but equally Im not saying 'nah its nothing'


----------



## vickster (1 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Would you have been called in for an MMR - or do you have to ask ? - Both my lads had it.
> 
> I still don't think it compares to an illness which has killed 3k people this year for which there is no vaccination or cure.


98% get over it without much intervention looking at the data (and that's based on those who present, many don't)


----------



## kingrollo (1 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> 98% get over it without much intervention looking at the data (and that's based on those who present, many don't)



Yes but thats only half of the story - we don't know how many people will get infected - if say 45% of the UK population get it - those numbers in terms of head count start to rack up 
Again not sure - but think the quoted figures are 98% survive and for 80% its a minor illness - 5% get critically ill (again not sure but they may need hospital beds) 
Either way its risk management probability V impact.


----------



## vickster (1 Mar 2020)

Was just reading that smoking history seems to be a more likely precursor to death, esp among Chinese men where smoking is extremely common, and thus high presence of COPD.

Where was it suggested that 45% might get it in the UK?


----------



## nickyboy (1 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> 98% get over it without much intervention looking at the data (and that's based on those who present, many don't)


That is incorrect
98% don't die. But of those that don't die about 20% require serious medical intervention such as hospitalisation. Of that 20%, about a quarter require Intensive Care treatment
Currently in Italy for example there are more than 100 CV patients in ICU

Gotta keep washing those hands. I talk to friends in SK, PRC and HK almost every day. Hand washing and good personal hygiene is the key

Mrs N was on the tube today, wearing gloves. Amazing to see most other people with bare hands. Seems the seriousness hasn't hit home yet


----------



## Rusty Nails (1 Mar 2020)

I think anyone who isn't a virologist who comments on the potential seriousness or otherwise of the coronavirus ought to be made to start their post with "I don't really have a clue, but..."


----------



## RoadRider400 (1 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Out of 67m inhabitants...
> 
> How many have been diagnosed with measles in the Uk this year for example?
> 
> There have been 546 case of mumps reported in January 2020 in England, a disease that is preventable through vaccination...a nasty disease that can cause inflammation of the testicles (and with it male infertility), and in rare cases, meningitis and deafness. Are we all up to date with our MMR?



The measles has been doing the rounds for over 200 years. Of course there are going to be more cases. Covid-19 didnt exist in humans just 200 days ago.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Mar 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> The measles has been doing the rounds for over 200 years. Of course there are going to be more cases. Covid-19 didnt exist in humans just 200 days ago.


and theirs a vaccine


----------



## vickster (1 Mar 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> The measles has been doing the rounds for over 200 years. Of course there are going to be more cases. Covid-19 didnt exist in humans just 200 days ago.


Huh? I asked how many cases this year? We're about 60 days into the year


----------



## Illaveago (1 Mar 2020)

There are 2 cases not too far from me in Tetbury now .


----------



## Archie_tect (1 Mar 2020)

This is starting to be shared on Facebook:

1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.


----------



## Blue Hills (1 Mar 2020)

26/27 C air temperature?
Some bits of the country never hit that all year.


----------



## Archie_tect (1 Mar 2020)

Apparently it was published as advice by a doctor based in China...


----------



## Julia9054 (1 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses.


Effective at doing what?


----------



## RoadRider400 (1 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Huh? I asked how many cases this year? We're about 60 days into the year



Whilst mumps might be increasing and currently higher in cases than Convid-19 its only really going to be a problem for the antivaxers, and whilst its unfortunate that their children might be victims of this. There is a vaccine and it largely controls the spread.

Convid-19 has no vaccine and there will not be a vaccine for a good many months yet. It seems to me that those who are concerned about Convid-19 and those that are not seems to directly correlate with those who understand exponential growth and those who do not. Its really not logcal to compare this new virus with other infections that have been around for years, they are not going to experience such a sharp growth as we, in my opinion are likely to see in the next few weeks and months. I will leave this link here for those who want to broaden their knowledge of exponential growth.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BSaMH4hINY


----------



## nickyboy (1 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Effective at doing what?


Effective at making you go to a public loo, one of the most likely places to pick up CV or any virus for that matter

BTW, WHO advice is that the virus is viable on surfaces anywhere from several hours to several days. This depends on the temperature and dampness of the surface. So as an absolute minimum it will be viable on a door handle for several hours. You touch a handle and you're touching a lot of people

Was your hands...a lot


----------



## MarkF (1 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Mrs N was on the tube today, wearing gloves. Amazing to see most other people with bare hands. Seems the seriousness hasn't hit home yet


.
How are Mrs N's gloves going to protect her from sneezed, breathed or coughed droplets?


----------



## MarkF (1 Mar 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Whilst mumps might be increasing and currently higher in cases than Convid-19 its only really going to be a problem for the antivaxers, and whilst its unfortunate that their children might be victims of this. There is a vaccine and it largely controls the spread.
> 
> Convid-19 has no vaccine and there will not be a vaccine for a good many months yet. It seems to me that those who are concerned about Convid-19 and those that are not seems to directly correlate with those who understand exponential growth and those who do not. Its really not logcal to compare this new virus with other infections that have been around for years, they are not going to experience such a sharp growth as we, in my opinion are likely to see in the next few weeks and months. I will leave this link here for those who want to broaden their knowledge of exponential growth.
> 
> ...




It's not what the result is in a month, but many months in the future.


----------



## Milzy (1 Mar 2020)

If you look at the way it's spreading there's no way we can stop it. What if it mutates?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (1 Mar 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Whilst mumps might be increasing and currently higher in cases than Convid-19 its only really going to be a problem for the antivaxers, and whilst its unfortunate that their children might be victims of this. There is a vaccine and it largely controls the spread.
> 
> Convid-19 has no vaccine and there will not be a vaccine for a good many months yet. It seems to me that those who are concerned about Convid-19 and those that are not seems to directly correlate with those who understand exponential growth and those who do not. Its really not logcal to compare this new virus with other infections that have been around for years, they are not going to experience such a sharp growth as we, in my opinion are likely to see in the next few weeks and months. I will leave this link here for those who want to broaden their knowledge of exponential growth.
> 
> ...




Yup. I posted this a few days ago -


----------



## nickyboy (1 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> .
> How are Mrs N's gloves going to protect her from sneezed, breathed or coughed droplets?


They aren't . But she will be protected against the very likely transmission via shared surfaces

I'm gonna take a break from this thread. I've tried over several weeks to explain that this has the potential to be really serious. Nobody knows how this will play out but the route it is taking is exactly what you would expect of a global pandemic.


----------



## RoadRider400 (1 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> If you look at the way it's spreading there's no way we can stop it. What if it mutates?



Simple really. If it becomes more virulent the mortality rate increases and if less virulent the mortality rate decreases. General consensus at the moment is that its a stable genome. The more cases there are however the more opportunity for mutation exists, which is another reason we could do with reducing the spread.


----------



## MarkF (1 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Thank you for your analysis and your thoughtful posts. What you have said concurs exactly with what my wife and son (both doctors) are telling me. My wife wears latex gloves when travelling by train/tube. She has a planned journey to Geneva in a couple of weeks, she again will be taking her gloves.


I don't have any doctors in my family, but l interact with 20+ every day. I doubt I'll see one wearing gloves unless treating a patient. If that changes then l might worry.


----------



## Rocky (1 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> I don't have any doctors in my family, but l interact with 20+ every day. I doubt I'll see one wearing gloves unless treating a patient. If that changes then l might worry.


I think you'll find that these doctors are constantly washing their hands as part of normal infection control. There is no need for them to wear gloves outside the normal clinical practice. However, washing facilities are not that available on the London Underground and so anything that prevents a person touching an infected surface and then touching their mouth or rubbing their eyes, is a good thing. That is why wearing latex gloves in that situation is sensible. Context is everything.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (1 Mar 2020)

First Scottish case is currently in Ninewells - been there a few days apparently.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Mar 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Whilst mumps might be increasing and currently higher in cases than Convid-19 its only really going to be a problem for the antivaxers, and whilst its unfortunate that their children might be victims of this. There is a vaccine and it largely controls the spread.



It’s affecting a lot of young adults who weren’t vaccinated. So think anyone up to about 40. Older adults are likely to have been exposed to mumps as a child and have immunity. For instance I had mumps in 1970. I asked my GP practice about the recent mumps outbreak in the UK as I’m too old for when mumps vaccination became a thing in the late 1980’s. They said I needn’t worry unless I work in certain high risk areas. In which case additional vaccinations are recommended.

Combine mumps with Corona Virus and an otherwise healthy young adult may be in serious / fatal trouble very quickly.

There were 5042 cases of mumps in 2019 , in Jan 19 there were 119 cases, in Jan 20 there were 542 cases.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> They aren't . But she will be protected against the very likely transmission via shared surfaces



Only if she doesn’t touch her face, mouth, nose etc with the gloves. Plus is careful removing the gloves once worn and disposes of them. The virus will live on her gloves for several hours if not days.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Mar 2020)

Well Corona Virus is in my county. Soon it will be in all counties. It is coming to your area soon enough.


----------



## MarkF (1 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think you'll find that these doctors are constantly washing their hands as part of normal infection control. There is no need for them to wear gloves outside the normal clinical practice. However, washing facilities are not that available on the London Underground and so anything that prevents a person touching an infected surface and then touching their mouth or rubbing their eyes, is a good thing. That is why wearing latex gloves in that situation is sensible. Context is everything.


Then why not wear them every day throughout every winter to minimise the risk of catching flu? Or every day to try to avoid catching anything?
Not airborne of course ...


----------



## greenmark (1 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> If you look at the way it's spreading there's no way we can stop it. What if it mutates?



Theory goes that over time, mutations will make it less serious.

The more serious mutations that cause people to become sicker will not spread as fast, because ill people tend to self-isolate.
Less serious versions will spread more quickly, because people with mild symptoms are more likely to go about their daily business.
So people will likely become more exposed to mild versions first and then have the antibodies to deal with serious versions.

So over time it will hit an equilibrium of being serious enough to be transmissible but not so serious to cause mass self-isolation. Similar to flu and colds.

But the speed of reaching the equilibrium is not known. It depends a lot on the rate of mutation. I've read somewhere that it does not mutate as fast as flu, but honestly I think that factor is not known. If it is a very slow mutating virus, a much deadlier mutation might become prevalent before more mild mutations present themselves. Equilibrium might take years.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Then why not wear them every day throughout every winter to minimise the risk of catching flu? Or every day to try to avoid catching anything?
> Not airborne of course ...


As has been stated many times :-

1.) There is a vaccine for flu

2.) corona-virus has a much higher mortality rate than flu


----------



## lazybloke (1 Mar 2020)

Just been looking at stats for the 2009 swine flu, which had a similar R0 of 2.5 to Covid 19, meaning it's similarly contageous. 
Unfortunately, Covid-19 has a much higher fatality rate, about 50 - 100 times higher!

Still not a high risk to young healthy people (assuming they don't smoke, and don't have any undiagnosed health issues).
Not such good news to the older generations, or the economy.

Panic? No.
Concern? Yes


----------



## Andy in Germany (2 Mar 2020)

Quick chat with the children's doc today. Her thoughts were as follows:


The vast majority of people who catch it will experience milder symptoms than for a common cold or flu, many won't even notice.
Because it's a new strain, most people will catch it sooner or later
The current policy of trying to keep people isolated isn't to stop it spreading, it is to slow down the spread so we don't have too much to deal with at once.
So don't panic, just follow the usual precautions.
As usual, we're far more likely to die from being hit by a car driven by someone texting, than we are from Coronavirus.


----------



## kingrollo (2 Mar 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Quick chat with the children's doc today. Her thoughts were as follows:
> 
> 
> The vast majority of people who catch it will experience milder symptoms than for a common cold or flu, many won't even notice.
> ...



Surely your last sentence contradicts the second. - As only around 140 cyclists per year die in the uk. Yet if most people are going to catch it then with a mortality rate of 1-2% that is easily going to top 140 deaths by the end of the year.


----------



## Andy in Germany (2 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Surely your last sentence contradicts the second. - As only around 140 cyclists per year die in the uk. Yet if most people are going to catch it then with a mortality rate of 1-2% that is easily going to top 140 deaths by the end of the year.



Fair comment: I was thinking of the German statistic which is that 11-12 people a day are killed by motor vehicles. Of course not all are cyclists.

The comments from the doctor make sense though, even if my conclusion was a bit out on the numbers

On the other hand, it seems a lot of people who catch Coronavirus don't even realise; the mortality rate is only from confirmed cases and there's a school of though that most people recover after a few days, and think they just caught a cold or flu, and that others don't even show any symptoms, so the mortality rate may be far lower.


----------



## kingrollo (2 Mar 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Fair comment: I was thinking of the German statistic which is that 11-12 people a day are killed by motor vehicles. Of course not all are cyclists.
> 
> The comments from the doctor make sense though, even if my conclusion was a bit out on the numbers
> 
> On the other hand, it seems a lot of people who catch Coronavirus don't even realise; the mortality rate is only from confirmed cases and there's a school of though that most people recover after a few days, and think they just caught a cold or flu, and that others don't even show any symptoms, so the mortality rate may be far lower.



Yeah perhaps I should have paid attention to your user name !

IMO the extreme views are:-

1.) This is all blown way out of proportion by the media - it will just go away on its own

2.) We should wear masks 24/7, stock up on food, and stay indoors

I disagree with 1 - but I am not at 2 (Yet)

I don't see the point of panic - as other than basic hand hygiene there not much you can do.


----------



## Andy in Germany (2 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yeah perhaps I should have paid attention to your user name !
> 
> IMO the extreme views are:-
> 
> ...



Well, now you know why I failed GCSE maths first time around...


----------



## kingrollo (2 Mar 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Well, now you know why I failed GCSE maths first time around...



I think thats the issue - people see a 98% figure and say 'ah we will be fine' - but in clinical terms 98% isn't good. For comparison death from *rates *from anaesthesia-related deaths were 1.1 per million population per year


----------



## Andy in Germany (2 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think thats the issue - people see a 98% figure and say 'ah we will be fine' - but in clinical terms 98% isn't good. For comparison death from *rates *from anaesthesia-related deaths were 1.1 per million population per year



Except that as the pointed out above the majority of people will catch this, probably about 75-80% of the population. Of those. most won't even realise they've got it at all, or will will shake it off as a cold before it becomes confirmed as coronavirus. The 1-2% rate is of confirmed cases and we don't know what percentage of total cases are diagnosed or confirmed.


----------



## Fab Foodie (2 Mar 2020)

If alcohol kills Corona virus on your hands, how much alcohol do you need to drink for immunity...*hic*


----------



## Rocky (2 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> If alcohol kills Corona virus on your hands, how much alcohol do you need to drink for immunity...*hic*


I’m willing to enter a clinical trial to find out


----------



## kingrollo (2 Mar 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Except that as the pointed out above the majority of people will catch this, won't even realise they've got it and will shake it off before it becomes confirmed as coronavirus. The 1-2% rate is of confirmed cases and we don't know what percentage of total cases are diagnosed or confirmed.



The figures I have seen is that for 80% its not serious illness - not sure if that is 80% of confirmed cases or if they have modelled those with mild symptoms into that figure.
At best it would it appear that the figure on unreported & very mild cases is still an estimate. I would expect the fatality rate to fall as hopefully the virus weakness - but the sheer number of infections would still have a major impact even if that death rate got to 0.5% !


----------



## Milkfloat (2 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> If alcohol kills Corona virus on your hands, how much alcohol do you need to drink for immunity...*hic*



I thought it was the lime that killed the nasties?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (2 Mar 2020)

Getting fed up of the people who are saying this is all hype. I think the internet enabling morons who then feel the need to say "black" when someone says "white" plays a big part.

Wash your hands.
Cover your mouth when you sneeze/cough.
Be a decent human being with some consideration for others.


----------



## Grant Fondo (2 Mar 2020)

Milkfloat said:


> I thought it was the lime that killed the nasties?
> View attachment 506708


No its the beer that kills your taste buds


----------



## Proto (2 Mar 2020)

Mate came over from Australia couple of days ago and is off skiing end of this week, flying to Verona, then into the Alps/Dolomites for two weeks. I’ve suggested he cancel but he’s determined to go - hotels, flights etc. all booked. I pointed out that Verona is the hub of Italian outbreak but he won’t listen.

He was intending to come and visit us on the return journey. My wife has left it to me to tell him he won’t be welcome. Overreaction?


----------



## stephec (2 Mar 2020)

stephec said:


> On a similar note, last week I was at a factory where a new bottle filling machine was being installed by an Italian company.
> 
> Today I go in to find they've all been sent home, apparently they've been there since the new year but used to go home each weekend, now they've been told to stay away until April.
> 
> And I shook the boss's hand last week.


Sunday morning I've got flu like symptoms and phone 111 to tell them of the above circumstances, I was told that I should just treat it as normal flu and there was no point testing me unless one of the Italians is a confirmed case. 

I've emailed my contact there, asking to be kept upto date, but he's on holiday for the week, hopefully someone else will be monitoring it.


----------



## Fab Foodie (2 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m willing to enter a clinical trial to find out


We might have to self-isolate in a suitable purveyors of the treatment...


----------



## Archie_tect (2 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> Mate came over from Australia couple of days ago and is off skiing end of this week, flying to Verona, then into the Alps/Dolomites for two weeks. I’ve suggested he cancel but he’s determined to go - hotels, flights etc. all booked. I pointed out that Verona is the hub of Italian outbreak but he won’t listen.
> 
> He was intending to come and visit us on the return journey. My wife has left it to me to tell him he won’t be welcome. Overreaction?


With his attitude it doesn't sound as if you'd want him back anyway...


----------



## Andy in Germany (2 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> Mate came over from Australia couple of days ago and is off skiing end of this week, flying to Verona, then into the Alps/Dolomites for two weeks. I’ve suggested he cancel but he’s determined to go - hotels, flights etc. all booked. I pointed out that Verona is the hub of Italian outbreak but he won’t listen.
> 
> He was intending to come and visit us on the return journey. My wife has left it to me to tell him he won’t be welcome. Overreaction?



We've just been sent an advisory saying anyone from the local schools who has been in that region must stay away from school for at least two weeks.

The problem as I understand it, is that you can carry it without knowing and pass it onto an "at risk" group which could have more serious consequences.


----------



## delb0y (2 Mar 2020)

For the first time I can now trace a direct linkage to a person who has been diagnosed with the virus - me, my wife, a customer of my wife, the customer's husband, the husband's boss (the one's who been diagnosed with it). What's that? Four degrees of separation? I must apologise to the UPS driver who's just delivered a parcel for the boy and to whom I opened the door. Oh, and anyone else who uses the same stylus to sign for parcels for the rest of the day / week / month (however long it is before that stylus gets cleaned...).


----------



## marinyork (2 Mar 2020)

www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/health/coronavirus-washington-spread.amp.html

Scary story about the unusual cases of coronavirus in Washington state outside seattle.

Genetic analysis of two patients and samples sent from China, a scientist believes the most plausible explanation is it's been circulating for some time.within Washington State!


----------



## Rocky (2 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> We might have to self-isolate in a suitable purveyors of the treatment...


The prof has already suggested I should self-isolate. Something to do with the wind.


----------



## kingrollo (2 Mar 2020)

No 2pm update ? - no new cases - or did the COBRA meeting agree not to do this anymore ?


----------



## vickster (2 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> No 2pm update ? - no new cases - or did the COBRA meeting agree not to do this anymore ?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51708550

COBRA publishing plan tomorrow apparently


----------



## kingrollo (2 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51708550
> 
> COBRA publishing plan tomorrow apparently



Sorry I meant the numbers - usually the total number of cases etc is releaded daily at 2pm. Maybe all the bods were in the COBRA meeting.


----------



## vickster (2 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Sorry I meant the numbers - usually the total number of cases etc is releaded daily at 2pm. Maybe all the bods were in the COBRA meeting.


UK? 40, says in that link


----------



## Beebo (2 Mar 2020)

So containment is probably no longer possible.
the aim now is to delay the spread to stagger the impact on the NHS and hope that the virus will be easier to treat by the summer.


----------



## Ripple (2 Mar 2020)

A new confirmed case in Maidstone, Kent.


----------



## kingrollo (2 Mar 2020)

More stats here

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

unless I have read it wrong not good for asthmatics with 6% fatality rate.


----------



## vickster (2 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> More stats here
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
> 
> unless I have read it wrong not good for asthmatics with 6% fatality rate.


Where's asthma specifically? And by age/sex/co-morbidities etc


----------



## kingrollo (2 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Where's asthma specifically? And by age/sex/co-morbidities etc



Chronic respiratory - I was taking as Asthma.

Just scroll down the page.


----------



## icowden (2 Mar 2020)

Yes. My family are really scoring high on these charts. The missus has had a previous heart attack, I have asthma (although relatively mild usually - but I am prone to chest infections) and my youngest daughter is T1 diabetic. The older daughter should be fine though!


----------



## marinyork (2 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> More stats here
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
> 
> unless I have read it wrong not good for asthmatics with 6% fatality rate.



I know you are very sceptical and been on a few asthma rants, but a lot of the NHS stuff on asthma that pisses you off so much is well meant stuff badly implemented because severity of asthma being underdiagnosed. When nothing else going on sadly some of these cases end up in hospital. Or in rare cases die.

For every kingrollo out there there are several anti-kingrollos that say two fingers up mate, give me 2 inhalers every month or I'm knocking your lights out. I refuse to go to asthma reviews
They are boring! Nothing wrong with me, just need to get these inhalers regularly!


----------



## vickster (2 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Chronic respiratory - I was taking as Asthma.
> 
> Just scroll down the page.


OK, that will include COPD and a large proportion of those in China (majority of deaths so far) will have COPD due to the large number of (especially male) smokers


----------



## marinyork (2 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Chronic respiratory - I was taking as Asthma.
> 
> Just scroll down the page.



A lot of patients with COPD. Sadly a difficult one to manage in the winter


----------



## Globalti (2 Mar 2020)

I got an insight recently into how it has spread in China when I went into an airport bog and there was a Chinese bloke, head in the sink, treating himself to a full cough, hawk, retch and gob session. All the viruses he disgorged will have ended up spread all over the taps and sink ready for the following users.


----------



## Mugshot (2 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/NevilleSouthall/status/1234466863482130443?s=20


----------



## kingrollo (2 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> I know you are very sceptical and been on a few asthma rants, but a lot of the NHS stuff on asthma that pisses you off so much is well meant stuff badly implemented because severity of asthma being underdiagnosed. When nothing else going on sadly some of these cases end up in hospital. Or in rare cases die.
> 
> For every kingrollo out there there are several anti-kingrollos that say two fingers up mate, give me 2 inhalers every month or I'm knocking your lights out. I refuse to go to asthma reviews
> They are boring! Nothing wrong with me, just need to get these inhalers regularly!



My real complaint - is that I have other health issues which have had a bigger impact on my life.

Anxiety
Back issues

On anxiety they aren't really interested - and on back issues they have been obstructive. When they are then on the phone saying "we need you to come for your asthma check" ......

Then eventually - when I did go and my peak flow was low - they were very reluctant to refer me to a respiratory consultant.

Really glad I pushed now - as with the range of inhalers I feel better and my inflammation markers have reduced.


----------



## vickster (2 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> My real complaint - is that I have other health issues which have had a bigger impact on my life.
> 
> Anxiety
> Back issues
> ...


Does your anxiety manifest as health anxiety to some degree? Have you sought help (even privately)?


----------



## kingrollo (2 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Does your anxiety manifest as health anxiety to some degree? Have you sought help (even privately)?



No - it was mainly work related anxiety. Which caused me to quit a couple of high paid jobs

It's mostly under control now. I get up tight if the kids are ill - or go missing for days on end 
(They are 20+ now - so not kids !!!)


----------



## marinyork (2 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Does your anxiety manifest as health anxiety to some degree? Have you sought help (even privately)?



There is a huge amount of overlap between generalised anxiety disorder and health anxiety. Unfortunately a lot of doctors don't call it health anxiety. Loving the enlightened times here .


----------



## vickster (2 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> There is a huge amount of overlap between generalised anxiety disorder and health anxiety. Unfortunately a lot of doctors don't call it health anxiety. Loving the enlightened times here .


??


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Mar 2020)

Well a case is confirmed in my town and three cases in the county. It’s coming for you.


----------



## Rusty Nails (2 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Well a case is confirmed in my town and three cases in the county. It’s coming for you.



Never has an avatar been so apt.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Never has an avatar been so apt.



Ha ha.

I‘ve never had Flu despite all the times it has being flying around me. So we will see if Covid19 gets me in a noticeable way.


----------



## Wobblers (2 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think thats the issue - people see a 98% figure and say 'ah we will be fine' - but in clinical terms 98% isn't good. For comparison death from *rates *from anaesthesia-related deaths were 1.1 per million population per year



Data released by the Chinese medical authorities suggests that, of those tested, 80% had no or mild symptoms, 15% had serious symptoms requiring hospitalisation and 5% became critically ill needing ICU treatment. But epidemiologists believe that there's been significant under- reporting of up to 90%. These are almost certainly people who never develop symptoms are become very mildly ill. It's reasonable to assume that almost all of the serious cases are being reported. Allowing for that, this suggests that 98% do not get seriously ill. This is similar to the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where 95% of those infected have not experienced serious illness.

The evidence is suggesting that most people who get Covid-19 will experience a mild illness, or no symptoms - even those in the vulnerable groups. So that at least is encouraging. This is not an argument for complacency though! It still has a higher mortality than flu. Actions aimed at slowing down its progress are certainly warranted - this will reduce the load on the NHS which means that it's less likely to be overwhelmed and those who need treatment can actually get it.


----------



## rualexander (2 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/health/coronavirus-washington-spread.amp.html
> 
> Scary story about the unusual cases of coronavirus in Washington state outside seattle.
> 
> Genetic analysis of two patients and samples sent from China, a scientist believes the most plausible explanation is it's been circulating for some time.within Washington State!



"Scary story"?
Not really, surely it's actually evidence of the mildness of the disease.
If it's been circulating in the population for a number of weeks but has not been recognised as anything more threatening than normal seasonal flu or common cold.


----------



## NorthernSky (2 Mar 2020)

i heard you are not immune if you get it and recover, why?
i thought that was the whole point in our immune systems


----------



## vickster (2 Mar 2020)

NorthernSky said:


> i heard you are not immune if you get it and recover, why?
> i thought that was the whole point in our immune systems


Because viruses mutate? That's why you can get multiple colds?


----------



## Fab Foodie (2 Mar 2020)

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN20M19I

Dean Koontz -Wuhan 400


----------



## Fab Foodie (2 Mar 2020)

It’s starting!

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...escalates-panic-buying?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

What if the Preppers are right :-////


----------



## Mugshot (2 Mar 2020)

shoot just got real!


View: https://twitter.com/MickJon95058639/status/1234495852112158720?s=20


----------



## Fab Foodie (2 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> shoot just got real!
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/MickJon95058639/status/1234495852112158720?s=20



Oh feck!


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (2 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> "Scary story"?
> *Not really, surely it's actually evidence of the mildness of the disease.
> If it's been circulating in the population for a number of weeks but has not been recognised as anything more threatening than normal seasonal flu or common cold.*



I find it hard to call the disease "mild". To put it in context, IF half of the UK population are infected, a mortality of c1% of the infected half is 330,000 dead, the c5% requiring intensive care represent 1,650,000 souls, and the c20% with serious symptoms are 6.6 millions!

The nhs only has c140,000 beds in total, and few "spare" ones.

While not all infected having serious symptoms makes it harder to spot, I think the reason of failing to recognise it in the US might be due to the lack of testing, a result of being grossly unprepared.

Given thousands were tested in the UK by then, it beggars belief that for the richest nation on earth, only 445 people had been tested in the US as of 25th Feb (about a week ago) - the reason? Test kits were only available in 3 states as of 21st Feb, and even when they were tested, kits were found to be faulty!

Similarly, the Japanese government found it fit to test those on the Diamond Princess in dribs and drabs, and even by the end of the two week quarantine period not all on board were tested, while in the meantime they were all essentially kept in a petri dish, infecting each other happily, resulting in c20% catching it by the end of the two weeks.

Hopefully, some valuable lessons will be learnt from these episodes.


----------



## stowie (2 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> shoot just got real!
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/MickJon95058639/status/1234495852112158720?s=20




That explains why I am in a Buckinghamshire car park all by myself...


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (2 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> To put it in context, IF half of the UK population are infected, a mortality of c1% of the infected half is 330,000 dead, the c5% requiring intensive care represent 1,650,000 souls, and the c20% with serious symptoms are 6.6 millions!
> 
> 
> Similarly, the Japanese government found it fit to test those on the Diamond Princess in dribs and drabs, and even by the end of the two week quarantine period not all on board were tested, while in the meantime they were all essentially kept in a petri dish, infecting each other happily, resulting in c20% catching it by the end of the two weeks.



To get a 20% infection rate on the ship, they were all kept in close confinement together for two weeks (I accept not all were tested). Does it then follow that we can expect 50% of the UK population to be infected?


----------



## Accy cyclist (2 Mar 2020)

Just listening to the radio phone in on Radio Lancashire,the presenter Alan Beswick is kind of shouting down callers who appear to be concerned about this virus. He keeps spouting stuff about how you've more chance of being struck by lightening,winning the lottery blah blah than dying from the virus. I think as a BBC employee he's been told to say this stuff to try and stop listeners panicking. He's so aggressive in the way he puts 'his' views across. Yes,more chance of winning the lottery etc at the moment,but will he be saying this in a month's time?


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (2 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> To get a 20% infection rate on the ship, they were all kept in close confinement together for two weeks (I accept not all were tested). *Does it then follow that we can expect 50% of the UK population to be infected?*



No it doesn't. But a professor of epidemiology at Harvard said roughly 40% to 70% might eventually get it - he said it would only take 100 to 200 people to seed it widely in America. The danger is it can be spread by people without symptom, like the British super-spreader who travelled from Singapore to France.

It is also a catch-22 situation. If we act like people in Hongkong, with schools closed, vast number of people "working" from home, and shoppers deserting the streets, the infection might be controlled, but then numerous businesses will go to the wall, the economy reliant on interconnections between businesses will tank, which will result in the destruction of livelihoods and lives further down the line. I think it is too early to tell how destructive it is going to be.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (3 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/FryRsquared/status/1234491912775782400


----------



## kingrollo (3 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> No it doesn't. But a professor of epidemiology at Harvard said roughly 40% to 70% might eventually get it - he said it would only take 100 to 200 people to seed it widely in America. The danger is it can be spread by people without symptom, like the British super-spreader who travelled from Singapore to France.
> 
> It is also a catch-22 situation. If we act like people in Hongkong, with schools closed, vast number of people "working" from home, and shoppers deserting the streets, the infection might be controlled, but then numerous businesses will go to the wall, the economy reliant on interconnections between businesses will tank, which will result in the destruction of livelihoods and lives further down the line. I think it is too early to tell how destructive it is going to be.



Yep - I understand that item 1 on the agenda was Jacob Rees Moggs hedge fund.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Mar 2020)

Story doing the rounds

"An email got sent round all the staff, including clerical, at my missus' NHS Trust today asking for voluteers to do overtime swabbing potential CoVID-19 infectees.
They were paying basic overtime (Everyone said F*** that)
This work needed to be done* "initially"* out of normal hours, i.e. you still need to do your normal shifts
And here's the kicker, they needed to volunteer quickly as the teams needed to be up and running NEXT WEEK
Also everyone needed to be up to speed quickly on the BioHazard Suits and the swabbing procedure i.e. traing required quickly."


----------



## MarkF (3 Mar 2020)

I think that is absolute twaddle and stuff like this only adds to the hysteria.

People would be amazed at what the NHS is prepared for at any given time. I work at one of the biggest & busiest hospitals in the UK & what has happened is that professionals have sprung into action & equipment has arrived, a lot of it.

Jenny from accounts is no more likely to be swabbing patients than a porter or a cleaner.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> I think that is absolute twaddle and stuff like this only adds to the hysteria.
> 
> People would be amazed at what the NHS is prepared for at any given time. I work at one of the biggest & busiest hospitals in the UK & what has happened is that professionals have sprung into action & equipment has arrived, a lot of it.
> 
> Jenny from accounts is no more likely to be swabbing patients than a porter or a cleaner.



That email going around a trust is 100% true.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Mar 2020)

"The government's coronavirus battleplan will see the army on the streets, police ignoring minor crimes and one in five off work. "

Blimey Maggie Thatcher is back !


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 Mar 2020)

Police are already ignoring minor crimes, have done for years due to under resourcing. What planet is Cobra on?


----------



## Fab Foodie (3 Mar 2020)

Customer has just pulled the plug on my trials in Northern Germany tomorrow due to Coronavirus fears.
I probably shan’t be travelling anywhere (except maybe head-office in Ireland) now for many weeks....

Flights rearranged, hotels and hire cars cancelled and a nice buffet-lunch with a glass of red being enjoyed at a Vienna Airport hotel instead....
Home tomorrow :-)


----------



## fossyant (3 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Police are already ignoring minor crimes, have done for years due to under resourcing. What planet is Cobra on?



Planet Boris !


----------



## Rocky (3 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Customer has just pulled the plug on my trials in Northern Germany tomorrow due to Coronavirus fears.
> I probably shan’t be travelling anywhere (except maybe head-office in Ireland) now for many weeks....
> 
> Flights rearranged, hotels and hire cars cancelled and a nice buffet-lunch with a glass of red being enjoyed at a Vienna Airport hotel instead....
> Home tomorrow :-)


The Prof was due to give a keynote lecture at an international medical conference in NZ in April. This has been cancelled because the organisers thought that most of the delegates would be needed in their own countries delivering patient care. There are usually about 3,000 delegates at this primary care conference.


----------



## randynewmanscat (3 Mar 2020)

The anti vaxer nutjobs have jumped onboard with this. Apparently its the recent 5G installation in Wuhan that is the cause. Quackery expert Kate Shemirani of Uckfield FM proclaims that 5G sucks the oxygen from your body and COVID 19 is caused by the 5G rollout in Wuhan.


----------



## Rocky (3 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> The anti vaxer nutjobs have jumped onboard with this. Apparently its the recent 5G installation in Wuhan that is the cause. Quackery expert Kate Shemirani of Uckfield FM proclaims that 5G sucks the oxygen from your body and COVID 19 is caused by the 5G rollout in Wuhan.


Presumably if the oxygen has been sucked out of your body, you won't get infected by COVID 19........coz you'll be dead.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Mar 2020)

I wonder if we (Humans) are actually the virus - and covid-19 is the earths antibodies fighting back ?


----------



## kingrollo (3 Mar 2020)

51 uk cases now


----------



## Mugshot (3 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> The anti vaxer nutjobs have jumped onboard with this. Apparently its the recent 5G installation in Wuhan that is the cause. Quackery expert Kate Shemirani of Uckfield FM proclaims that 5G sucks the oxygen from your body and COVID 19 is caused by the 5G rollout in Wuhan.


Would that be considered a step up or down from cats? I guess it's just technological advancement, far more efficient.


----------



## Blue Hills (3 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Police are already ignoring minor crimes, have done for years due to under resourcing.


True - they have said as much in certain areas quite recently.
I reckon London in particular is on the verge of virtual lawlessness.


----------



## Blue Hills (3 Mar 2020)

Licenced to kill?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51720354


----------



## Blue Hills (3 Mar 2020)

By the by, what have the major religions got to say about this possible imminent pandemic/plague?

Just what have we all done wrong to deserve this?

Any believers of whatever cult among us who can shed light/disinfectant on this?


----------



## Levo-Lon (3 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> By the by, what have the major religions got to say about this possible imminent pandemic/plague?
> 
> Just what have we all done wrong to deserve this?
> 
> Any believers of whatever cult among us who can shed light/disinfectant on this?




I'd ask the SK religious leader..


----------



## kingrollo (3 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Licenced to kill?
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51720354



They might want to change the title while they are at it....


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 Mar 2020)

Authorities have now worked out how the virus is being transmitted.


----------



## Blue Hills (3 Mar 2020)

Quick question (apologies for not knowing/not having read coverage as much as I should have).

Would I be correct in thinking that if you get it and then recover you will no longer be able to get it and pass it on?

Reason I ask is that I am wary of passing it on to elderly mother when I visit.

Am pretty confident that it won't bump me off.

So, contrary to no doubt sensible advice on here, am considering a bit of intensive tube travel/rail licking.


----------



## tribanjules (3 Mar 2020)

Reports of re-infection @Blue Hills .
I spent a while trawling medical sites and even phoning - there is no hand gel to be had.
someone has a serious stash of it somewhere


----------



## Smokin Joe (3 Mar 2020)

tribanjules said:


> Reports of re-infection @Blue Hills .
> I spent a while trawling medical sites and even phoning - there is no hand gel to be had.
> someone has a serious stash of it somewhere


Luckily we don't need it. Soap and water is enough.


----------



## tribanjules (3 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> Luckily we don't need it. Soap and water is enough.




Not always sinks on the bus !


----------



## Smokin Joe (3 Mar 2020)

tribanjules said:


> Not always sinks on the bus !


Now that's what I call paranoia.


----------



## Spinney (3 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> Luckily we don't need it. Soap and water is enough.


Soap and water is better, I believe, not just 'enough'. Hand gel (if >60% alcohol) is for when soap and water not available.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Quick question (apologies for not knowing/not having read coverage as much as I should have).
> 
> Would I be correct in thinking that if you get it and then recover you will no longer be able to get it and pass it on?
> 
> ...




Don't think anyone is sure. One of theories is that you catch flu shortly after or during convid 19 - so you test clear then get I'll/die with another flu strain.
My guess would be that unless you're patient facing in healthcare - you are unlikely to get it twice in a short period of time.


----------



## Globalti (3 Mar 2020)

I was at Addis Ababa airport last Thursday morning and in the gents there was a Chinese guy giving it the full nasal washout, hawking gobbing retching and gagging into a sink. That's how it got spread in China. I came home early and my employer told me to stay at home, then on Monday morning the company's computers all went down because... guess what... they've been attacked by the LeChiffre ransom virus! So I'm stuck at home doing DIY jobs and fielding Watsapps and calls from customers complaining that we aren't answering their emails. Tonight IT and the company who have come to clean us will be working through the night to check 180 computers. I bet they won't be ordering a Chinese takeaway though!


----------



## Julia9054 (3 Mar 2020)

Had a staff meeting today. One of the items under discussion was what to do if govt advice was to shut schools.
Apparently, we are to record a short video of ourselves giving instructions and then provide materials online for the students to complete. Parents will be encouraged to make their children stick to lesson timings but at home.
My videos will be of me dressed as a teacher from the waist up. The lower half of me will be wearing cycling shorts and all of me will be buggering off on my bike as soon as my video segments are uploaded!


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> Luckily we don't need it. Soap and water is enough.



or a hip flask of cheap whisky.


----------



## tom73 (3 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> This is starting to be shared on Facebook:
> 
> 1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
> 2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
> ...




mmmmm Think I will stick to NHS and PHE advice. Most of that is total carp it's just show how things start and how people never question things anymore after all It's on FB so must fact.


----------



## tom73 (3 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Effective at doing what?


Duff information


----------



## tom73 (3 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think you'll find that these doctors are constantly washing their hands as part of normal infection control. There is no need for them to wear gloves outside the normal clinical practice. However, washing facilities are not that available on the London Underground and so anything that prevents a person touching an infected surface and then touching their mouth or rubbing their eyes, is a good thing. That is why wearing latex gloves in that situation is sensible. Context is everything.



Very true it's all about which PPE and do I really need it. 
Miss use of gloves is wide spread within the NHS it can save 1000's of pounds per ward with a little re training. Not until you see the waste you and your told to get it down do you really understand It. As a ward sister it was one of Mrs73's biggest issues that and miss using clinical waste bins. Of course gloves are not the only PPE that's missed used either.

The issues with wide spread use at the moment of gloves by the general public is the danger they forgot not then go on an touch their mouth ect. Well they still are wearing them.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (3 Mar 2020)

Good advice


View: https://youtu.be/77IZttD_pU8


----------



## midlife (3 Mar 2020)

2 people tested positive in Carlisle today according to the local rag. Wonder where they have been for the last few days.

https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/18278218.first-coronavirus-case-carlisle/


----------



## Heigue'r (3 Mar 2020)

Suspected case in a school about a mile away from me


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 Mar 2020)

Heigue'r said:


> Suspected case in a school about a mile away from me



A bit nearer than the case near me, but only just


----------



## fossyant (3 Mar 2020)

Email from the boss making sure our VPN and Skype is working from home - I'll double check tomorrow. Just in case our buildings get shut at some point.


----------



## MontyVeda (3 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Licenced to kill?
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51720354


the trailer looks good.


----------



## Fab Foodie (3 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> the trailer looks good.


....they always do....


----------



## Salty seadog (3 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> The anti vaxer nutjobs have jumped onboard with this. Apparently its the recent 5G installation in Wuhan that is the cause. Quackery expert Kate Shemirani of Uckfield FM proclaims that 5G sucks the oxygen from your body and COVID 19 is caused by the 5G rollout in Wuhan.



I'm glad I'm still on 4G. I take up new technology slowly. 
I like to give it time for the price to come down and for all the bugs to be worked out. 🧐🤫


----------



## Fab Foodie (3 Mar 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> I'm glad I'm still on 4G. I take up new technology slowly.
> I like to give it time for the price to come down and for all the bugs to be worked out. 🧐🤫


3G still here! I still have most of the oxygen I need in my body....


----------



## Salty seadog (3 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> 3G still here! I still have most of the oxygen I need in my body....



Retro dude.


----------



## fossyant (3 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> 3G still here! I still have most of the oxygen I need in my body....



You are safe !


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Quick question (apologies for not knowing/not having read coverage as much as I should have).
> 
> Would I be correct in thinking that if you get it and then recover you will no longer be able to get it and pass it on?



https://www.immunology.org/public-i...athogens-and-disease/immune-responses-viruses


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> 3G still here! I still have most of the oxygen I need in my body....



Haven‘t got very good phone signal here. Oxygen levels are through the roof. Best not light a match.


----------



## RoadRider400 (3 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Email from the boss making sure our VPN and Skype is working from home - I'll double check tomorrow. Just in case our buildings get shut at some point.


Will you be making sure it does or doesnt work?


----------



## PK99 (3 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> Now that's what I call paranoia.



A few weeks ago as it was kicking off, two young Asian girls on the tube back from Heathrow wearing face masks. Had bought sandwiches at the airport, pulled down masks, ate sandwiches with no hand sanitizing at all despite having used hand rails on the tube. DOH!


----------



## Blue Hills (4 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> https://www.immunology.org/public-i...athogens-and-disease/immune-responses-viruses


Ta for that yukon but not sure it answers the layman's question.


----------



## Blue Hills (4 Mar 2020)

Long after this has passed, the poor chinese are going to be plagued by this sort of crap
BBC News - Coronavirus: Chinese messaging app WeChat censored virus content since 1 Jan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51732042

Now that is a definition of hell orwell would have recognised.

Makes the virus seem almost benign in comparison.


----------



## MontyVeda (4 Mar 2020)

After four years of Brexit dominating the news, now we've got nothing but corona virus.


----------



## MarkF (4 Mar 2020)

WeChat. Whilst we have so much free scare mongering & misinformation it won't be long before our crazed population hurtle to hospital or their GP instead staying home & ringing 111.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

WHO - suggesting the mortality rate is increasing to 3.4%

Would seem consistent with Italy where approx 2500 infections have left 79 dead.


----------



## rualexander (4 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> WHO - suggesting the mortality rate is increasing to 3.4%
> 
> Would seem consistent with Italy where approx 2500 infections have left 79 dead.


But inconsistent with South Korea where 5621 cases have left 33 dead.
A rate of 0.6%.
Basically the overall death rate is not knowable at this stage.


----------



## Blue Hills (4 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> But inconsistent with South Korea where 5621 cases have left 33 dead.
> A rate of 0.6%.
> Basically the overall death rate is not knowable at this stage.


Possibly partly at least due to demographics?
I know little about south korea but italy has a high proportion of old folk.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Possibly partly at least due to demographics?
> I know little about south korea but italy has a high proportion of old folk.



Its all stats and you can pull them most ways you want - it seems deadly in the over 80's - but Italy reported its youngest victim (51) yesterday - and a 61 YO with no health problems also died.


----------



## randynewmanscat (4 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> You are safe !


I have all the oxygen I need, less bars than Saudi Arabia here, not even "EDGE" network within 6 km.


----------



## Fab Foodie (4 Mar 2020)

In other news, people are profiteering from alcoholic hand gels and face masks.

But there are cheap and available alternatives! Meths certainly, white spirit, surgical spirit, even screenwash will probably be as effective....


----------



## Rocky (4 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> In other news, people are profiteering from alcoholic hand gels and face masks.
> 
> But there are cheap and available alternatives! *Meths certainly*, white spirit, surgical spirit, even screenwash will probably be as effective....


Does that mean the price of my favourite tipple will be rising?


----------



## PeteXXX (4 Mar 2020)

They don't sell meths in boots. 

It leaks out of the lace holes!


----------



## Fab Foodie (4 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Does that mean the price of my favourite tipple will be rising?


....better start stockpiling!


----------



## Rusty Nails (4 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> After four years of Brexit dominating the news, now we've got nothing but corona virus.



What else is more important In the minds of many people at this time?

The clue is in the words "four years of Brexit"...........and still more to come.


----------



## Illaveago (4 Mar 2020)

It's a bit worrying that India have announced that drugs like paracetamol will be for home consumption only .


----------



## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

Don't panic


----------



## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

Bag for life ?


----------



## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

85 uk cases - don't panic


----------



## Beebo (4 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> 85 uk cases - don't panic


Yeah. 34 new cases in one day. It’s going to start escalating rapidly now as containment has failed.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> Yeah. 34 new cases in one day. It’s going to start escalating rapidly now as containment has failed.



no more updates on location from today - too many cases.


----------



## greenmark (4 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Possibly partly at least due to demographics?
> I know little about south korea but italy has a high proportion of old folk.



Maybe partly. Both Korea and Italy have aged populations. 15% of South Korea's population is over 65. For Italy it is 22%. Something of a difference but not enough to account in the difference in mortality rates.

The biggest reason for the difference is that South Korea has been systematically testing anyone who has been in contact with previous cases. By contrast Italy is only testing people if they are symptomatic. 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/


----------



## Rocky (4 Mar 2020)

@Fab Foodie......I see that you and @Hill Wimp have been getting some stocks in for your self-isolation. Should be quite a party.


----------



## fossyant (4 Mar 2020)

We were discussing at work that that Gin might be good for hand sanitising, and even Aldi's Gin might be cheaper per ml than hand gel !


----------



## fossyant (4 Mar 2020)

Italy has closed all Schools and Universities until mid March.


----------



## Beebo (4 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> We were discussing at work that that Gin might be good for hand sanitising, and even Aldi's Gin might be cheaper per ml than hand gel !


It has to be above 60% alcohol. 
So very unlikely.


----------



## fossyant (4 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> It has to be above 60% alcohol.
> So very unlikely.



Thank goodness.


----------



## fossyant (4 Mar 2020)

Co-op marketing email just arrived - funeral care !


----------



## Rocky (4 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> It has to be above 60% alcohol.
> So very unlikely.


Shame Vernon isn't about:


----------



## PK99 (4 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Co-op marketing email just arrived - funeral care !



That's an offer not to be sneezed at!


----------



## fossyant (4 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> That's an offer not to be sneezed at!


I am sneezing


----------



## MichaelO (4 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Italy has closed all Schools and Universities until mid March.


They are considering it - to be decided this afternoon.


----------



## Smokin Joe (4 Mar 2020)

I've made sure Mrs SJ is well protected anyway -


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (4 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> I've made sure Mrs SJ is well protected anyway -
> 
> View attachment 506982



That's all very well but look what happens when you start sneezing...


----------



## numbnuts (4 Mar 2020)

BBC -The UK has seen its biggest day-on-day increase in coronavirus cases, bringing the total number to 85. 
Some 29 of the 34 new patients had recently travelled to affected countries or picked it up from others who had done so, the UK's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty said.
But it is not clear how three new patients in England were infected.* *


----------



## Milzy (4 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> BBC -The UK has seen its biggest day-on-day increase in coronavirus cases, bringing the total number to 85.
> Some 29 of the 34 new patients had recently travelled to affected countries or picked it up from others who had done so, the UK's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty said.
> But it is not clear how three new patients in England were infected.* *


Stick the kettle on.


----------



## MichaelO (4 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> But it is not clear how three new patients in England were infected.**


Probably from passing this guy on public transport!!
https://www.cityam.com/deloitte-london-employee-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/


----------



## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

I don't mind dying - it's the thought of sitting in the house with Mrs KR for 3 months that's frightening me.


----------



## numbnuts (4 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't mind dying - it's the thought of sitting in the house with Mrs KR for 3 months that's frightening me.


It could be worse, me and the Ex someone would die of a broken neck


----------



## Rusty Nails (4 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> *I* *don't* *mind* *dying* - it's the thought of sitting in the house with Mrs KR for 3 months that's frightening me.



I would be quite upset at dying.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I would be quite upset at dying.


Dunno it might stop my back ache.

In all seriousness I worry more about anything happening to my family - if it's 'you' you don't have to pick up the pieces and get over loosing loved ones.


----------



## johnnyb47 (4 Mar 2020)

A member of staff today turned up for work complaining of aching limbs and flu like symptoms. It's probably just a simple cold, but everybody kept there distance from him.
Later on the way home from work i stopped of at Lidl to get some shopping. Making small talk with the cashier i said "i bet hand sanitizer has been popular this week,"
She said they've been sold out all week and that one person on Saturday bought there whole stock in one go, of 200 bottles!


----------



## vickster (4 Mar 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> A member of staff today turned up for work complaining of aching limbs and flu like symptoms. It's probably just a simple cold, but everybody kept there distance from him.
> Later on the way home from work i stopped of at Lidl to get some shopping. Making small talk with the cashier i said "i bet hand sanitizer has been popular this week,"
> She said they've been sold out all week and that one person on Saturday bought there whole stock in one go, of 200 bottles!


Probably to flog on eBay at a profit


----------



## johnnyb47 (4 Mar 2020)

Yeah more than likely. There's sure to be a few profiteers "trying it" on if this virus gets a big grip on us


----------



## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> A member of staff today turned up for work complaining of aching limbs and flu like symptoms. It's probably just a simple cold, but everybody kept there distance from him.
> Later on the way home from work i stopped of at Lidl to get some shopping. Making small talk with the cashier i said "i bet hand sanitizer has been popular this week,"
> She said they've been sold out all week and that one person on Saturday bought there whole stock in one go, of 200 bottles!


But the sanitizer isn't that good. A bar of soap trumps it ?
I know in some circumstances you won't have access to soap and water - but I think people are using sanitizer instead of...


----------



## Fab Foodie (4 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> @Fab Foodie......I see that you and @Hill Wimp have been getting some stocks in for your self-isolation. Should be quite a party.
> 
> View attachment 506976


We were only allowed a one week supply :-(


----------



## vickster (4 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> But the sanitizer isn't that good.* A bar of soap trumps it ?*
> I know in some circumstances you won't have access to soap and water - but I think people are using sanitizer instead of...


As long as used effectively with water


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Don't panic
> View attachment 506969
> View attachment 506969



WTF😷😷😷😷😷😷😳😂😂😂😂😱😱😱


----------



## Dave7 (4 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> As long as used effectively with water


Frightened of asking but what else would you do with a bar of soap


----------



## stephec (4 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> We were only allowed a one week supply :-(


Was the other trolley already loaded in the boot then?


----------



## Fab Foodie (4 Mar 2020)

stephec said:


> Was the other trolley already loaded in the boot then?


....busted!


----------



## Pale Rider (4 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Frightened of asking but what else would you do with a bar of soap



Crusher Harris on D wing could tell you.


----------



## Beebo (4 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> They are considering it - to be decided this afternoon.


Decided. They are closing all schools for 2 weeks.


----------



## Blue Hills (4 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> Decided. They are closing all schools for 2 weeks.


More like a week and a half isn"t it?
I know a few italian teachers - common to finish work at lunchtime.
Happy days.


----------



## tom73 (4 Mar 2020)

Just remember alcohol gel only works really on socially clean hands and hands free of creams. So in most cases you end up having to wash your hands anyway.

Also expect sale of hand cream to go made in a few weeks. Once all the nice and delicate hands bunch find out what some of use have known for years. Regulator use of the stuff sure make‘s a mess of your hands.


----------



## Beebo (4 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> More like a week and a half isn"t it?
> I know a few italian teachers - common to finish work at lunchtime.
> Happy days.


It’s the parents who I feel sorry for. This would cause havoc in UK as both parents tend to work, at least part time.


----------



## Milzy (4 Mar 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> A member of staff today turned up for work complaining of aching limbs and flu like symptoms. It's probably just a simple cold, but everybody kept there distance from him.
> Later on the way home from work i stopped of at Lidl to get some shopping. Making small talk with the cashier i said "i bet hand sanitizer has been popular this week,"
> She said they've been sold out all week and that one person on Saturday bought there whole stock in one go, of 200 bottles!


Normal soap and water has been proved better. Mugs are everywhere.


----------



## Blue Hills (4 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just remember alcohol gel only works really on socially clean hands and hands free of creams. So in most cases you end up having to wash your hands anyway.
> 
> Also expect sale of hand cream to go made in a few weeks. Once all the nice and delicate hands bunch find out what some of use have known for years. Regulator use of the stuff sure make‘s a mess of your hands.


Suggest you check that last sentence.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Mar 2020)

Report from wife that all hand cleansers sold out in local supermarket. Bananas also all gone. Does rubbing yourself with a banana protect you?


----------



## Slick (4 Mar 2020)

Just got a call from another manager from work who has asked me to open up for her tomorrow as her husband is displaying a couple of the symptoms of the virus and was tested today. 

We knew that they were in Italy recently but we didn't know exactly where.


----------



## midlife (4 Mar 2020)

There's going to be a lot of stories like that I expect. Two members of staff came to work today having been on holiday to Northern Italy last week......


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## nickyboy (4 Mar 2020)

There have been plenty of CV-skeptics on this thread if you look back
My question is this these skeptics: given the current situation have you modified your hygiene methods at all or are they the same as always?

If you look back at my posting history you can see I've been saying this will be serious from the outset. Perhaps unsurprisingly I'm washing my hands much more often and I take hand sanitizer with me wherever I go in case I'm touching surfaces and no handwashing available

So, skeptics out there....what are you doing if anything??


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (4 Mar 2020)

I wonder what is the rationale for the government keeping the daily outbreak location information secret, given it is not as if they do not collect it. I can't think of good one.

Regarding "face masks", I suspect the government is downplaying their utility. Firstly respirators are highly effective in filtering virus and bacteria out (partly because they fit faces so much better than "surgical masks") if they are worn and used properly, and some are still available at places like Screwfix, secondly respirators or surgical masks tend to stop people sticking their hands in their face, which apparently the average person does 23 times an hour!


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (4 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> If you look back at my posting history you can see I've been saying this will be serious from the outset. Perhaps unsurprisingly I'm washing my hands much more often and I take hand sanitizer with me wherever I go in case I'm touching surfaces and no handwashing available



How are you protecting yourself against airborne transmission, apart from avoiding crowds/people, if at all?


----------



## nickyboy (4 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> How are you protecting yourself against airborne transmission, apart from avoiding crowds/people, if at all?


Minimum 1m spacing. If I can't then I would avoid

To give this context I was chatting with a friend in HK (a city with no lock down, residents are free to travel around as they see fit). 
"What is everyone doing in HK to minimise risk of infection?"
"Staying at home"


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## Smokin Joe (4 Mar 2020)

I'm more fastidious about hand washing, but nothing else. Not a lot you can do really, we all have to go to work and shop and just trust to luck that we don't get it or if we do it will be a mild form. The media are doing their usual panic mongering in playing up the worst case scenario as a certainty, but the death rate is reckoned to be about 1% which is the same as for normal flu.

Keep calm and carry on will be my strategy.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Minimum 1m spacing. If I can't then I would avoid
> 
> To give this context I was chatting with a friend in HK (a city with no lock down, residents are free to travel around as they see fit).
> "What is everyone doing in HK to minimise risk of infection?"
> "Staying at home"



1 metre will not stop a sneeze reaching you. It travels much further than that.


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## nickyboy (4 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> 1 metre will not stop a sneeze reaching you. It travels much further than that.


Correct. This is a risk I take. The reality is that most transmission is via shared surfaces and poor hand hygiene. Hence I'm hand washing, sanitising and wearing gloves on public transport
I'm more interested in what everyone else is doing. It's all well and good me doing these things but if the skeptics aren't doing anything then we're all f***ed


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## fossyant (4 Mar 2020)

You've got to be extra careful if you've got a direct member of family likely to be adversely affected by the virus. I'm certainly making sure I wash my hands very thoroughly at work when I visit the loo, but I'm one of those that rubs eyes, touches face. I'm working in a Uni where many folk aren't hygenic - even if our loos are looked after fantastically by our cleaning staff, there are loads of folk that don't wash after visiting.

My son is in a risk group, but he's fit and healthy. If he got ill, we'd be looking after him - he can't just go to bed and sleep it off, with Type 1 we will need to be monitoring his blood levels constantly - if I got ill, I can just rest and not eat etc. We'd have to ensure he ate etc etc, and control his insulin pump if he wasn't able to. We can stay away from my parents, and especially MIL. 

I've no worries for me, Mrs F, daughter, but son, parents and MIL, definately. If my parents got ill, then we'd have to risk getting ill to ensure they were OK. MIL, then that's a different case as we may be carriers by then and can't exactly go into the Nursing Home if they end up short of staff.

I've been to the chemist to ensure my son has enough supplies in - he's running low as he's just got a new pump (new set of stuff needed), so we've no reserve of blood test strips for his pump meter, but we have backups for his other meters. Just gone for more insulin too as any illness can either mean he needs very little, or loads. It's a gamble. Docs are a pain with test strips - they are expensive, but he's been told to test 8 times a day - a pack of strips can cost £30-£50 and will last 5 days - that's alot of money each month.


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## Slick (4 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> I'm more fastidious about hand washing, but nothing else. Not a lot you can do really, we all have to go to work and shop and just trust to luck that we don't get it or if we do it will be a mild form. The media are doing their usual panic mongering in playing up the worst case scenario as a certainty, but the death rate is reckoned to be about 1% which is the same as for normal flu.
> 
> Keep calm and carry on will be my strategy.


Keep calm and carry on only takes you so far though, you still need to take sensible measures to reduce the effect on others. Mrs Slick for instance was due to serve lunch to pensioners in the village hall tomorrow but has decided against it just in case I've brought anything home from work. No panic, but why put others at risk?


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## Slick (4 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Correct. This is a risk I take. The reality is that most transmission is via shared surfaces and poor hand hygiene. Hence I'm hand washing, sanitising and wearing gloves on public transport
> I'm more interested in what everyone else is doing. It's all well and good me doing these things but if the skeptics aren't doing anything then we're all f***ed


I'm the same, a bit more fastidious about hand washing and supplementing that with sanitizer 6 or 7 times a day.


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## MarkF (4 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> There have been plenty of CV-skeptics on this thread if you look back
> My question is this these skeptics: given the current situation have you modified your hygiene methods at all or are they the same as always?
> 
> If you look back at my posting history you can see I've been saying this will be serious from the outset. Perhaps unsurprisingly I'm washing my hands much more often and I take hand sanitizer with me wherever I go in case I'm touching surfaces and no handwashing available
> ...



I don't see myself as a sceptic, it's a virus that we are well overdue and something we have to deal with rationally. My fear all along is that the hysteria is going to cause more human pain than the virus.

To answer your question, you know my job, I would have thought that I was fastidious about personal and specfically hand hygiene as I am worried about infection every day at work. But I've gone up another level this week as have most colleagues.


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## slowmotion (4 Mar 2020)

I'm comforting myself with my hazy A Level knowledge of statistics and probability.

Did you know that 4000 people die of tuberculosis every day?


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## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I'm comforting myself with my hazy A Level knowledge of statistics and probability.
> 
> Did you know that 4000 people die of tuberculosis every day?


Did you know there is a vaccine for TB?


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## slowmotion (4 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Did you know there is a vaccine for TB?


It was a comment about levels of mortality. I think I had a HEAF test when I was a kid.


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## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> It was a comment about levels of mortality.



Yes but in reality if you are concerned about TB you can do something about it.


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## slowmotion (4 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yes but in reality if you are concerned about TB you can do something about it.


Surely, the key point is "if you are concerned"?


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## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Surely, the key point is "if you are concerned"?


I would have thought the key point that you can do something about it.


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## slowmotion (4 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I would have thought the key point that you can do something about it.


I did briefly consider building a large autoclave to sanitise the bodies of my entire family after every social interaction.


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## Rusty Nails (4 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Surely, the key point is "if you are concerned"?





slowmotion said:


> I did briefly consider building a large autoclave to sanitise the bodies of my entire family after every social interaction.



Image is important


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## slowmotion (4 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Image is important


Please give up.
Thanks.


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## HMS_Dave (4 Mar 2020)

Well whatever is said about the virus, Toilet roll and hand soap stocks will plummet after its all blown over....


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## slowmotion (4 Mar 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> Well whatever is said about the virus, Toilet roll and hand soap stocks will plummet after its all blown over....


Pilchards are holding up.


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## Beebo (4 Mar 2020)

We have put up a sign in the kitchen to remind everyone to wash hands regularly. 
It’s a good aid memoir for when you or the kids get home.


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## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> I don't see myself as a sceptic, it's a virus that we are well overdue and something we have to deal with rationally. My fear all along is that the hysteria is going to cause more human pain than the virus.
> 
> To answer your question, you know my job, I would have thought that I was fastidious about personal and specfically hand hygiene as I am worried about infection every day at work. But I've gone up another level this week as have most colleagues.


 Iii
Hysteria will always make it worse. If the mortality rate was 50,% someone could still come here and say "all this hysteria will make it worse"

There's a few levels

1.) It's a lot of fuss about nothing disease X kills thousands each year (not so many of these type now)

2.) Concerned but go about you're business with an extra on hygeine (most of us)

3.) Stay in doors 24/7 - disenfect everything - stockpile food - hand gels etc


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## kingrollo (4 Mar 2020)

I have heard the virus comes from hand gels !


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## Beebo (4 Mar 2020)

What do people think about booking summer holidays?
I’m probably going to leave it late to book but I suspect anyone who hasn’t already booked will be doing the same, so what do you think, will costs go up or down?


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## itboffin (4 Mar 2020)

we have holidays booked for July & August i doubt they'll be affected, but i didn't book the cheeky March training camp to Spain i'd planned.

I work for a global technology company in the space of a week the messaging has changed from be aware, to stop all but absolutely necessary travel and now the entire org will be tested, mines booked for tomorrow.

My wife works in HR at the local school, they now have one staff member in self quarantine but no results yet, another of the local school still has a ski trip out in Italy.


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## tom73 (4 Mar 2020)

My view as posted here has not really changed. Most of use just need need to up the basics and take a measured approach guided by the facts. Facebook and most of of the mass media don’t count.
Ones at high risk or live with someone who is then that measured approach is a bit higher but then as @nickyboy shows it’s not all out panic either.

What has changed for us is now numbers are slowly increasing it’s looking more likely Mrs 73 will come across someone infected or more likely higher number possible cases. So chance of us having to stay home have increased. So a little extra shopping is looking a good idea but not all out panic buy mode. The other thing is we now have a dog again so we need to find out what our vets plan is if we need one and we do find ourselves in quarantine. ( I know dogs can’t get it) 
Both new steps are not panic but measured ones based on facts and common sense.


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## Archie_tect (4 Mar 2020)

Surprising how quickly attitudes have changed in the last week.


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## slowmotion (4 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Surprising how quickly attitudes have changed in the last week.


Brexit and climate change certainly seem to be on the back burner for those media types.


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## PK99 (5 Mar 2020)

My grand-parents on my Dad's side both died in the Liverpool Dockside slums in the 1918 Flu Pandemic.

Dad and his 3 siblings were brought up in 4 different orphanages - out of he the many orphanages scattered around Liverpool.

Aunt Mary, the Eldest, and therefore the first to be released from her Orphanage, walked around the Orphanages of Liverpool (of which there were many) to find her Sibs and re-unite the family.

Uncle Ned and Aunt Ciss were very damaged people till they died in their 70's.

Aunt Mary & my Dad were less damaged, but not undamaged by the experience.

The impact of a pandemic is not trivial, or short term.


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## Blue Hills (5 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> We have put up a sign in the kitchen to remind everyone to wash hands regularly.
> It’s a good aid memoir for when you or the kids get home.


Are you a blackpool landlady?


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## flake99please (5 Mar 2020)

A little light hearted relief to a serious thread.


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## greenmark (5 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I know dogs can’t get it



Think again...
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...oronavirus-pet-dog-belonging-covid-19-patient


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## Fab Foodie (5 Mar 2020)

Our megacorp now has implemented travel restrictions between its sites. A health form needs completing and signing-off 48hrs before travel. I’m also expecting my pan-european playboy lifestyle to be seriously curtailed by our customers implementing travel bans.

In other news, a frozen foods customer in Germany reports a significant spike in sales with supermarket shelves rapidly emptying of Pasta, Rice etc as people ‘stock-up’....


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## Low Gear Guy (5 Mar 2020)

Is it a good idea to close schools? The reality of the situation is that many working parents will deliver the kids to grandparents for a days childminding. The children can then share bugs with kids from other areas at the farm park etc.


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## Julia9054 (5 Mar 2020)

greenmark said:


> Think again...
> https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...oronavirus-pet-dog-belonging-covid-19-patient


The dog is not infected. It has virus particles in it's nose and mouth because it has been licking it's owner. This is scaremongering


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## Fab Foodie (5 Mar 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Is it a good idea to close schools? The reality of the situation is that many working parents will deliver the kids to grandparents for a days childminding. The children can then share bugs with kids from other areas at the farm park etc.


I agree. Better to keep to ‘normal’ patterns of behaviour. It then makes tracing and containment easier.


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## Julia9054 (5 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I agree. Better to keep to ‘normal’ patterns of behaviour. It then makes tracing and containment easier.


Yeah - and have them sneezing over me instead.


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## Low Gear Guy (5 Mar 2020)

I don't think teacher welfare is a high government priority.


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## PaulSB (5 Mar 2020)

I haven't been reading this thread but thought the following might be of interest.

My wife and I recently returned from Vietnam and Cambodia.

Our next door neighbour has a bad cough which developed in to a chest infection. My wife, retired medical professional, is concerned our neighbour may have pneumonia now. Our neighbour was ill before we went to Vietnam and Cambodia.

Yesterday she was refused a GP appointment on the basis she had contact with us. We returned 22 days ago, well beyond the isolation period. 

Surely we should have been told to self-isolate especially if simple contact with healthy people is going to refuse others medical treatment?

Crackers.


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## Duffy (5 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I would be quite upset at dying.


No you wouldn’t, you’d be dead


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## Dave7 (5 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Did you know there is a vaccine for TB?


Part of my treatment for bladder cancer was to have live TB virus pumped into my bladder via my john thomas. I had that done 8 times. It made me very very poorly for 3 days each time........but I am still here. I think


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## Dave7 (5 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> What do people think about booking summer holidays?
> I’m probably going to leave it late to book but I suspect anyone who hasn’t already booked will be doing the same, so what do you think, will costs go up or down?


We have already booked and paid for 2 weeks in Majorca PLUS insurance. I understand that even if Majorca was to declare an emergency situation then a) if the FO doesn't publicly agree then we cannot get our money back and b) even if the FO does declare it a no go area the insurance company or travel company are not automatically obliged.......you have to check the small print.
Its certain the once the virus is known about then insurance will not cover you.
For us its a wait and see situation. At worst we will kiss goodbye to £2K and take days out.


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## Dave7 (5 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Brexit and climate change certainly seem to be on the back burner for those media types.


I have said it before...... we never had Coronavirus until we left the EU......just sayin like


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## fossyant (5 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> We have already booked and paid for 2 weeks in Majorca PLUS insurance. I understand that even if Majorca was to declare an emergency situation then a) if the FO doesn't publicly agree then we cannot get our money back and b) even if the FO does declare it a no go area the insurance company or travel company are not automatically obliged.......you have to check the small print.
> Its certain the once the virus is known about then insurance will not cover you.
> For us its a wait and see situation. At worst we will kiss goodbye to £2K and take days out.



That's also assuming the airline is still operating.


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## randynewmanscat (5 Mar 2020)

Reddit, Zerohedge and Infowars where winning the war on clicks out of social media platforms at the start of the week until the tech giants belatedly put resource into clamping down on coronavirus FUD. They are giving free space to CDC and WHO but a look through the sub reddits for coronavirus tells me that the conspiracy minded are unabated thus far. The crap on YouTube is getting thinned out but it looks like a game of whackamole.
You might think that being armed with the right advice gives you the citizen enough marbles to make good choices, not if the people fomenting lies have anything to do with it.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (5 Mar 2020)

Cooking meth amphetamine in East Kilbride?


----------



## fossyant (5 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 507132
> 
> 
> Cooking meth amphetamine in East Kilbride?



Mobile meth lab, whoda thought it..... might find my 'photo' from the Breaking Bad Cocktail lab.


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## mjr (5 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> This is starting to be shared on Facebook: [...]
> 5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.


It's a virus, so what exactly do they think antibacterial soap will do? This coronavirus seems to be showing just how many people spread shoot online uncritically.


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## kingrollo (5 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> It's a virus, so what exactly do they think antibacterial soap will do? This coronavirus seems to be showing just how many people spread shoot online uncritically.


Wash it from your hands ?
Not that it has to be antibacterial soap specifically.


----------



## mjr (5 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> You might think that being armed with the right advice gives you the citizen enough marbles to make good choices, not if the people fomenting lies have anything to do with it.


It's not like anyone has been trying to damage foreign economies and public confidence while keeping a strong grip on their country's media...


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## mjr (5 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Wash it from your hands ?
> Not that it has to be antibacterial soap specifically.


It did according to that faceberk. Let's get people wasting their time looking for scarcer products...


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## nickyboy (5 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> It did according to that faceberk. Let's get people wasting their time looking for scarcer products...


That's right. To clarify the position on "hand cleaners" any surfacant (so that's solid soap, liquid soap, foams) works. This virus (like many others but not all) comes with a lipid shell. Surfacants dissolve this shell and render the virus inert. That's why 20 seconds minimum hand washing is important...it takes time for the surfacant to dissolve the lipid layer. So even if you leave bits of virus on your hands it's dead


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## mjr (5 Mar 2020)

tribanjules said:


> I spent a while trawling medical sites and even phoning - there is no hand gel to be had.
> someone has a serious stash of it somewhere


Are other alcohols any use? Alcohol cleaning wipes, switch cleaner, undrinkable strong schnapps? I'll check which say to avoid skin contact, of course.


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## philk56 (5 Mar 2020)

It's gone crazy here in Ozland. Our local supermarket toilet-roll shelves


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## mjr (5 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I have heard the virus comes from hand gels !


Yeah, that's why it's been removed from shops(!)


----------



## mjr (5 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> What do people think about booking summer holidays?
> I’m probably going to leave it late to book but I suspect anyone who hasn’t already booked will be doing the same, so what do you think, will costs go up or down?


About the same. Less demand but also less supply of some things as firms go bust, like https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...ollapses-as-virus-hits-flights-worldwide.html


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## Dave7 (5 Mar 2020)

philk56 said:


> It's gone crazy here in Ozland. Our local supermarket toilet-roll shelves
> View attachment 507142


We have decided to re-use our used bog paper. We keep the used sheets until we have a full wash load then bung it in the washing machine on a hot wash. We will then tumble dry it.
TBH we only put the first lot in this morning so it will be interesting to see how it turns out


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## nickyboy (5 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> About the same. Less demand but also less supply of some things as firms go bust, like https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...ollapses-as-virus-hits-flights-worldwide.html


I would strongly suggest folk don't commit irrecoverable funds to travel. It is very probable that things will get a lot worse before they get better and where you're thinking of going to may be ok now but may not be ok soon. For example if I had a hol to Milan booked now I couldn't cancel and claim on insurance. But there is no way I'd be going as I have high-risk members of the family

If you're after bargains then it's the hotels where you'll find them. To some extent airlines can reduce capacity to match demand as they are doing now. Hotels can't really do that. They're either open or they're not and they need to keep occupancy levels up


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## MarkF (5 Mar 2020)

A more optimistic expert outlook, the sort I like. 

https://theunionjournal.com/leading-doctor-claims-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-feared/


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## Dave7 (5 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I would strongly suggest folk don't commit irrecoverable funds to travel. It is very probable that things will get a lot worse before they get better and where you're thinking of going to may be ok now but may not be ok soon. For example if I had a hol to Milan booked now I couldn't cancel and claim on insurance. But there is no way I'd be going as I have high-risk members of the family
> 
> If you're after bargains then it's the hotels where you'll find them. To some extent airlines can reduce capacity to match demand as they are doing now. Hotels can't really do that. They're either open or they're not and they need to keep occupancy levels up


Yes, as I said earlier, anyone booking now will not be covered by insurance.
We are (possibly/maybe) fortunate in that we booked and paid our insurance some time ago. Even so they could refuse to pay up if we wish to cancel.
Edit.
I was just reading conflicting information that says......if you book a holiday and get the insurance then, providing your destination is not anywhere the FO have advised against then you are covered if you catch CV while on holiday.
So......I don't know


----------



## mjr (5 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> A more optimistic expert outlook, the sort I like.
> 
> https://theunionjournal.com/leading-doctor-claims-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-feared/


"emergency situation medication medical professional at Brigham as well as Women’s Hospital in Boston, as well as a trainer at Harvard Medical School," doesn't sound like an epidemiologist to me. The original post also includes the disclaimer that his employers don't back the opinion.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Mar 2020)

Wife emailed from her work to say she has flu. She's heading home. Hopefully just the normal variety. Time for me to work from home till it passes.


----------



## fossyant (5 Mar 2020)

We may have our first student with the virus. A PhD student in my building. We are getting in touch with them. Worry is they will have been teaching undergraduates as well.


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## tom73 (5 Mar 2020)

greenmark said:


> Think again...
> https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...oronavirus-pet-dog-belonging-covid-19-patient


I'm aware of that case it's still not clear cut the weight of more reliable sources still say nothing to worry about. I like facts that are from a real source stands up to peer review.


----------



## tom73 (5 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> The dog is not infected. It has virus particles in it's nose and mouth because it has been licking it's owner. This is scaremongering



Totally


----------



## kingrollo (5 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> The dog is not infected. It has virus particles in it's nose and mouth because it has been licking it's owner. This is scaremongering


ah shoot - Ive just shot my dog !


----------



## tom73 (5 Mar 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I haven't been reading this thread but thought the following might be of interest.
> 
> My wife and I recently returned from Vietnam and Cambodia.
> 
> ...


Who refused one ? Check point Charlie or to her face a HCP? If He's sick he needs to access care pneumonia can quickly get worse. 
She needs to kick off or have someone who can


----------



## tom73 (5 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> We may have our first student with the virus. A PhD student in my building. We are getting in touch with them. Worry is they will have been teaching undergraduates as well.



Well all you can do is follow the drill and be guided my PHE. Good luck


----------



## glasgowcyclist (5 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 507132
> 
> 
> Cooking meth amphetamine in East Kilbride?



In EK it could be absolutely anything but at least police have clarified it was a matter of "unhygienic conditions" at the patient's house.


----------



## fossyant (5 Mar 2020)

We've followed the student up, and they have symptoms of a cold. Bless.


----------



## Mugshot (5 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/LibyaLiberty/status/1235473225389391872?s=20


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (5 Mar 2020)




----------



## Rusty Nails (5 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> No you wouldn’t, you’d be dead



If I ended up downstairs I would.


----------



## kingrollo (5 Mar 2020)

boooo ! Birmingham has its first case.


----------



## Fab Foodie (5 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> boooo ! Birmingham has its first case.


It'll never survive....

In other news: All laptop users in our place now told to take them home every night and prepare to work from home....


----------



## kingrollo (5 Mar 2020)

The USA
GOP blocking coronavirus bill — because it limits how much drugmakers can charge for a vaccine: report


----------



## Pale Rider (5 Mar 2020)

philk56 said:


> It's gone crazy here in Ozland. Our local supermarket toilet-roll shelves
> View attachment 507142



People are obviously crapping themselves.


----------



## kingrollo (5 Mar 2020)

What are chances of surviving this ?

Say 40% of the population get it - and 98% of those who get it survive ?

My odds are a bit lower as I have asthma - but I reckon my odds of not getting at all - or getting it and surviving ...99.5%........s

But I m not a mathematician !!!!!


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## PK99 (5 Mar 2020)

Comprehensive and authoritative article on state of play March 4, 2020

https://www.sciencenews.org/article...QurdwRuyoNc0_ZHz1lIfgHCOZKTRE4fpuxBfixl0zrwzw


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## rualexander (5 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> A more optimistic expert outlook, the sort I like.
> 
> https://theunionjournal.com/leading-doctor-claims-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-feared/


Shame it seems to have been written by a robot or google translate or something?!


----------



## Dave7 (5 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What are chances of surviving this ?
> 
> Say 40% of the population get it - and 98% of those who get it survive ?
> 
> ...


Its quite simple to compute. You take the 40% X 98% then take away the number you first thought of....simps


----------



## nickyboy (5 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What are chances of surviving this ?
> 
> Say 40% of the population get it - and 98% of those who get it survive ?
> 
> ...


Your maths is correct. But you can dramatically skew that 99.5% number by adopting all the measures being talked about; hand washing, social distancing etc etc. Basically, you can shove yourself into the 60% that won't catch it by doing these things. Don't do these things and you'll probably be in the 40% (and thus your chance of death increases to 2% based on your numbers)


----------



## kingrollo (5 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Your maths is correct. But you can dramatically skew that 99.5% number by adopting all the measures being talked about; hand washing, social distancing etc etc. Basically, you can shove yourself into the 60% that won't catch it by doing these things. Don't do these things and you'll probably be in the 40% (and thus your chance of death increases to 2% based on your numbers)



I am asthmatic and I have continued to go to the gym ...the plus side this keeps my cardio v better ....but afterwards I use the shared shower .......so does this even up - or should I bin the gym (it's a gym where I work ...at a hospital)


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## Rusty Nails (5 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I am asthmatic and I have continued to go to the gym ...the plus side this keeps my cardio v better ....but afterwards I use the shared shower .......so does this even up - or should I bin the gym (it's a gym where I work ...at a hospital)



I would have thought there'd be a greater likelihood of infection from using the gym equipment after people sweating on it and using their hands after they may have touched their mouths or noses.

Every public interaction carries a risk, you just have to decide how cautious/ultracautious/blasé you want to be.

I worry more about my son, who has health issues, and has no option but to travel to and from work by crowded bus every day, 40 minutes each way.


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## Landsurfer (5 Mar 2020)

As probably posted earlier ..... We have tens of thousands of deaths every winter from Winter Flu ..... total *flu*-related *deaths* during 2017-*2018* was estimated to be 79,000 ..... .....
And not a mass national panic in sight.
So why now ....... ?


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## Milzy (5 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> As probably posted earlier ..... We have tens of thousands of deaths every winter from Winter Flu ..... 2013/ 2014 winter it was over a 100K .....
> And not a mass national panic in sight.
> So why now ....... ?


It's a conspiracy.


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## Landsurfer (5 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> It's a conspiracy.


Sorry updated .....


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## Milzy (5 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Sorry updated .....


It's a global experiment. In the future biological virus weapons may be used to damage economies and sway stock markets. It's not all black & white. A school has been closed in Rotherham not very far from me. It's disgraceful.


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## nickyboy (5 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> As probably posted earlier ..... We have tens of thousands of deaths every winter from Winter Flu ..... total *flu*-related *deaths* during 2017-*2018* was estimated to be 79,000 ..... .....
> And not a mass national panic in sight.
> So why now ....... ?


FFS, read the science and then come back if you still don't know why the WHO and world governments are mobilised

To quote the Director General of the WHO today:

"This is not a drill. 

This is not the time to give up.

This is not a time for excuses.

This is a time for pulling out all the stops.

Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans"-@DrTedros #COVID19 #coronavirus


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## kingrollo (5 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> As probably posted earlier ..... We have tens of thousands of deaths every winter from Winter Flu ..... total *flu*-related *deaths* during 2017-*2018* was estimated to be 79,000 ..... .....
> And not a mass national panic in sight.
> So why now ....... ?


How many times .....

1.) There is a vaccination for seasonal flu

2.) The mortality rate for seasonal flu is much lower than Corona virus

3.) Maybe because there is no vaccination - but the rate that coronavirus can be passed on would seem much higher 

There is no point panicking buying 600 bog rolls etc - but this is much more serious than seasonal flu - there really is no comparison.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (5 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> As probably posted earlier ..... We have tens of thousands of deaths every winter from Winter Flu ..... total *flu*-related *deaths* during 2017-*2018* was estimated to be 79,000 ..... .....
> And not a mass national panic in sight.
> So why now ....... ?


I would look at the response of the government in China and ask why would they have taken strong action.


----------



## kingrollo (5 Mar 2020)

1st UK death


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## Beebo (5 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> How many times .....
> 
> 1.) There is a vaccination for seasonal flu
> 
> ...


4) It’s a new virus. No one on earth has an inbuilt resistance to this virus yet. Think how the Aztecs were wiped out!


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## vickster (5 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> 4) It’s a new virus. No one on earth has an inbuilt resistance to this virus yet. Think how the Aztecs were wiped out!


Don’t think they had modern medical facilities and treatments
...chocolate can cure many ills of course but not all (think it was the mayans who had the sweet teeth maybe?)


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## Smokin Joe (5 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> 2.) The mortality rate for seasonal flu is much lower than Corona virus


That is open to question because we do not no how many people are infected, bearing in mind a considerable proportion will have either no symptoms or ones that are so mild they dismiss them as just a cold. Estimates for fatalities I've seen today vary between .86% and 3.2%. That's not to dismiss the possible seriousness, but for the moment we just don't know what the effect will be.


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## kingrollo (5 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> That is open to question because we do not no how many people are infected, bearing in mind a considerable proportion will have either no symptoms or ones that are so mild they dismiss them as just a cold. Estimates for fatalities I've seen today vary between .86% and 3.2%. That's not to dismiss the possible seriousness, but for the moment we just don't know what the effect will be.


You are correct it's an unknown - but even the lowest estimate s you quote( 0.86 ) is higher than seasonal flu (0.15 )


----------



## lazybloke (5 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> ...chocolate can cure many ills of course but not all (think it was the mayans who had the sweet teeth maybe?)


Think they had it without sugar. Probably didn't have salted caramel either- how terrible


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## lazybloke (5 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> You are correct it's an unknown - but even the lowest estimate s you quote( 0.86 ) is higher than seasonal flu (0.15 )


I thought seasonal flu had a considerably lower mortality rate than you say, but i'm struggling to find any PHE stats on a tiny phone screen...


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## Blue Hills (5 Mar 2020)

Had plans to travel to italy (not the lockdown areas) soon.

Checked out the easyjet web page looking for info on my rights if they cancel your flight. Nothing that i could find, just this waffle from last month:

29/02/2020
The health and wellbeing of our passengers and crew is our highest priority.
We would like to reassure customers that our existing policies and procedures are in line with the guidance provided by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and EASA. We remain in regular contact with the authorities and will amend our procedures if and when required if guidance changes. There is currently no change to advice for airlines, so our flights continue to operate and standard terms and conditions on tickets continue to apply.
Please click here for more information around travel restrictions.


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## kingrollo (5 Mar 2020)

Wots the theory on why Chinas stats appear to be going down ? - I thought the lockdown had been lifted ?


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## RecordAceFromNew (5 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> A more optimistic expert outlook, the sort I like.
> 
> https://theunionjournal.com/leading-doctor-claims-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-feared/



Sorry to burst your bubble. Apart from the extremely strange "credentials" attributed to the chap, his mortality calculation is wrong.

It is logically indefensible to calculate mortality based on deaths divided by number infected, when not all the infected have been cleared or died. To use his example of the Diamond Princess, there are 6 deaths to date, and 212 cleared, so the mortality is c3%, close to the latest WHO estimate of 3.4%.



kingrollo said:


> Wots the theory on why Chinas stats appear to be going down ? - I thought the lockdown had been lifted ?



I do agree that we should find out what real experts say. Some interesting information has come out of China from the WHO team that went in, which might have debunked some commonly accepted beliefs:
1. Surprisingly, only 4.8% of infected people had runny noses.
2. Unlike flu, there are very few mild and asymptomatic cases escaping attention thereby fuelling further infection. This is consistent with how rapidly and clearly the rate of infection has since fallen in China.
3. While Wuhan was initially overwhelmed, and therefore shows a high mortality rate of c5.8%, it has been 0.7% in other regions in China.
4. Mortality rates however are now seen to be much higher elsewhere, in Italy and Iran, e.g. This might have something to do with the fact that contrary to common belief, relevant aspects of medicine in China, e.g. in ventilation, is sophisticated, and may not be practiced elsewhere.
5. It is difficult to see how the aggressive lockdown and intrusive solutions imposed in China can apply in the West, and if not does it mean more will be infected for longer?

Aspects of the team's conclusions can be seen here and here.


----------



## mjr (5 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> Shame it seems to have been written by a robot or google translate or something?!


It's a robot rip of the Slate article linked near the bottom as "Source" or similar. Others have pointed out how the doctor is not calculating rates correctly. Anyone who's worked in a university statistics department knows that a solid grasp of stats is not universal across the sciences.


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## Rusty Nails (5 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I would have thought there'd be a greater likelihood of infection from using the gym equipment after people sweating on it and using their hands after they may have touched their mouths or noses.
> 
> Every public interaction carries a risk, you just have to decide how cautious/ultracautious/blasé you want to be.
> 
> I worry more about my son, who has health issues, and has no option but to travel to and from work by crowded bus every day, 40 minutes each way.



By coincidence I've just had an email from my gym outlying the steps they are taking to keep the place and the equipment clean and to minimise the risk of infection.


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## Ming the Merciless (5 Mar 2020)

The news out of China is that they think it has mutated into two strains. One gives milder symptoms, one is much more deadly. Sorry if this has already been mentioned up thread.


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## nickyboy (5 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> By coincidence I've just had an email from my gym outlying the steps they are taking to keep the place and the equipment clean and to minimise the risk of infection.


It may be useful to use this thread to highlight likely locations to pick up the infection in addition to the obvious like door handles, toilet flush mechanisms, taps

Gyms, definitely
Supermarket trolleys and handbaskets
Petrol pumps
Armrests on trains


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## Ming the Merciless (5 Mar 2020)

Any public toilet where you have to open a door after washing your hands. So basically anywhere public.

Pint glasses any credit or debit card handed over.

Any door handle

ATM machine

Any item in a supermarket


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## rualexander (5 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The news out of China is that they think it has mutated into two strains. One gives milder symptoms, one is much more deadly. Sorry if this has already been mentioned up thread.


Source?
I have read elsewhere about the two strains, with one being described as more 'aggressive', which doesn't necessarliy mean "much more deadly".
It may just mean it spreads more easily and rapidly, or that it causes worse symptoms in more people.


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## Ming the Merciless (5 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> Source?
> I have read elsewhere about the two strains, with one being described as more 'aggressive', which doesn't necessarliy mean "much more deadly".
> It may just mean it spreads more easily and rapidly, or that it causes worse symptoms in more people.



BBC news article on the virus


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## Joey Shabadoo (5 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> It may be useful to use this thread to highlight likely locations to pick up the infection in addition to the obvious like door handles, toilet flush mechanisms, taps
> 
> Gyms, definitely
> Supermarket trolleys and handbaskets
> ...


MacDonalds touch screens


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## roubaixtuesday (5 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> MacDonalds touch screens



Coronavirus is a very small part of the overall risk profile from using one of those...


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## Ming the Merciless (5 Mar 2020)

NHS advice

https://111.nhs.uk/PWCorona/62c0148b-4e45-45ad-bfbc-ef279aa62378/COVID-19/about


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## Pale Rider (5 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Coronavirus is a very small part of the overall risk profile from using one of those...



I had a coffee in a McDonalds today.

Thought the place was unusually quiet.

Too quiet...


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## Ming the Merciless (5 Mar 2020)

FFS

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number


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## MarkF (5 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> NHS advice
> 
> https://111.nhs.uk/PWCorona/62c0148b-4e45-45ad-bfbc-ef279aa62378/COVID-19/about



We've had pods for 2 weeks now, would maybe hold 60-80 people I'd imagine, with safe & separate car parking for maybe 30 cars. It's one of the busiest hospitals in the UK in a densely populated & very deprived area. I don't know for sure, but think the facility has been used once.


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## johnnyb47 (5 Mar 2020)

We have a lot of polish people in my work place and it's very customary for them to shake hands We all clock in using biometric hand scanners. That's over 300 people touching the same device each day. Every delivery that comes into the factory gets signed off by me. Courier PDAs etc. 
Thinking about it, i must i come into contact with literally thousands of people a day directly or indirectly by touching electronic devices. 
The thing is, were are all virtually in the same boat with day to day life and there is very little we can do about it, apart from doing the basics like washing our hands ect. 
I'm not going to get to worried or stressed about all of this, because there's nothing that's going stop it in its tracks. We've just got to be a little more careful and follow the advice given and hope for the best. 
Seeing people panic buying hand sanitizer and bog rolls is just ludicrous. If i run short of bog rolls ive plenty of dock leafs in the back garden👍. 
I worry for the more vulnerable people such as my dad and will keep my distance from him for the time being. 
God knows what would happen if he had to self isolate for 2 weeks. 
I don't think he could make a day without hobbling down to the pub for a few pints.
As for cycling I'm going to carry on as normal. It may come to a time when travel may be restricted and the turbo trainer will have to get a dusting off. 
We just need to stay calm and not get to hung up on all the constant bombardment news we see on the Internet and tv and hopefully we will all come through it relatively unscathed.


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## rualexander (5 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> BBC news article on the virus


Link?


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## Ming the Merciless (5 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> Link?


 go to the website or through the app and go through their live updates. Read the source, they are the L and S strains mentioned.


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## kingrollo (5 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> We've had pods for 2 weeks now, would maybe hold 60-80 people I'd imagine, with safe & separate car parking for maybe 30 cars. It's one of the busiest hospitals in the UK in a densely populated & very deprived area. I don't know for sure, but think the facility has been used once.



With respect how would you know otherwise ?

We have one at the hospital where I work -nobody I know has any info on how often it is used.


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## rualexander (5 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> FFS go to the website or through the app and go through their live updates. Read the source, they are the L and S strains mentioned.


Done that, couldn't see it, anywhere on BBC.
I've read several articles referring to the L and S strains of the virus and they describe one as being more aggressive than the other, not more deadly.
And the one that is more aggressive is the one that has become most prevalent, i.e. the strain that most people have contracted in the current outbreak.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-deadly-strain-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/


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## Ming the Merciless (5 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> Link?



or you can read the source paper

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463


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## Rezillo (5 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> As probably posted earlier ..... We have tens of thousands of deaths every winter from Winter Flu ..... total *flu*-related *deaths* during 2017-*2018* was estimated to be 79,000 ..... .....
> And not a mass national panic in sight.
> So why now ....... ?



Because flu deaths have been amalgamated into, or, charitably, misinterpreted as the main cause of, excess winter death figures, which includes those who are infirm and vulnerable to colder temperatures. The BMJ are not happy about that at all:

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

"Through the USISS mandatory scheme, a total of 3,454 ICU/HDU admissions of
confirmed influenza were reported across the UK from week 40 2017 to week 15 2018,
including 372 deaths, based on combined data from England, Scotland and Northern
Ireland. In England, the total number of influenza confirmed admissions to ICU/HDU
was 3,175 (rate of 0.22 per 100, 000 population) and 320 deaths during the same
period... "


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## rualexander (5 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> or you can read the source paper
> 
> https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463



Thanks.
But that doesn't say the L type is more deadly either, just that it may be more aggressive and has become the more prevalent strain.


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## Ming the Merciless (5 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> Thanks.
> But that doesn't say the L type is more deadly either, just that it may be more aggressive and has become the more prevalent strain.



The BBC one did at the time I read it or did you miss me saying that? Not sure what point you are trying to make.


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## Ming the Merciless (5 Mar 2020)

Bbc1 question time right now. Discussing Corona virus . Well worth watching.


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## Rusty Nails (5 Mar 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> .................*As for cycling I'm going to carry on as normal. It may come to a time when travel may be restricted and the turbo trainer will have to get a dusting off.*
> We just need to stay calm and not get to hung up on all the constant bombardment news we see on the Internet and tv and hopefully we will all come through it relatively unscathed.



Normally I rely on the gym to keep my fitness up through the winter and cancel my membership through the summer months, but from here on I have decided that I will cut out the gym and increase my winter cycling. As a 73 year old asthmatic I need all the extra help I can get.


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## johnnyb47 (5 Mar 2020)

I think thats a wise move @Rusty Nails. Cycling would be a far better option as there would be far less contact with people out on the open road as opposed to a crowded gym. 
I'm not being patronising but at the grand age of 73 it's all the more important to take wise steps to lower the risk of catching it.


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## Accy cyclist (6 Mar 2020)

On the subject of gyms,surely it'd be wise to temporarily close the sauna and steam room at my local leisure centre? Sometimes there are 15 to 20 people crammed into both rooms and some unsavoury activities go on in there. People spit,blow their noses on the floor,use body scrubs,cough etc. With temperatures around 30C and loads of steam(obviously)in the steam room isn't this a breeding/transmitting ground for the coronavirus if a user happens to have the virus,but doesn't know yet?
Also...The government advisers are saying the virus won't spread as much in the warmer spring and summer months. I would've thought virus's would spread more in warm rather than cool conditions. We know that food 'goes off' in temperatures over 5C,when bacteria is created. Won't warm weather help the coronavirus flourish?


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## lazybloke (6 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> We've had pods for 2 weeks now, would maybe hold 60-80 people I'd imagine, with safe & separate car parking for maybe 30 cars. It's one of the busiest hospitals in the UK in a densely populated & very deprived area. I don't know for sure, but think the facility has been used once.



*Will it spread?*
The UK Chief Medical Officer thinks a global pandemic is almost certain, and that 95% of UK cases will fall within just a 9 week period. It's not know when that 9 week period will fall.

*How many people could be infected?*
An international study estuimated at least 1 in 5 (globally) were infected by Swine flu; fortuntely that one wasn't dangerous.
Let's assume Covid 19 affects a similar number here in the UK. What would that mean?

It would mean 14 million Brits infected.
Over 11 of these would be mild.
Nearly 2.7 million would hospital (inpatient) treatment. 

There were approx 17 million hospital admissions last year. That 327,000 per week.
Do the maths, it's almost a doubling of admissions every week of that 9 week period.





Containment should continue as it will delay a nationwide surge in infections; when that happens, computer models suggest 95% of UK infections would occur in about 9 weeks. 



However the remainder cause symptoms which are classed either severe or critical; in both cases the patient is hospitalised (for weeks).

Now consider the models mentioned by the Chief (UK) Medical Officer today, which predict that at some point there will be a very rapid spread of this virus. 


Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty suggests there's probably zero chance of avoiding a global pandemic.
So far the number of UK cases has been fairly trivial

there's almost zero chance of preventing a global pandemic. We're getting only trivial numbers of infections in the UK currently, but that will rise. but eventually he expects to see that rising very rapidly, with 95% of infections occuring over just a 9 week period. 


2) Approx 19% of Covid-19 cases as classed as severe or critical; these all require hospitalisation (weeks rather than days).


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## lazybloke (6 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> We've had pods for 2 weeks now, would maybe hold 60-80 people I'd imagine, with safe & separate car parking for maybe 30 cars. It's one of the busiest hospitals in the UK in a densely populated & very deprived area. I don't know for sure, but think the facility has been used once.



Surely a busy hospital in a densely populated area is the _ideal _place to have the pods and other facilities?
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

After all, the Chief Medical Officer did say only yesterday that (I'll paraphrase): a Global Pandemic is now almost a certainty.

Your 60-80 pods might not go very far. The last pandemic (2009-2010) gave 14 million Brits a very mild case of swine flu, and whilst Covid19 is also usually mild, there are some 19% of cases which result in hospitalisation due to severe or critical symptoms. 

Whilst the avarage UK hospital admission is just 4 days (stats from NHS Digital), Covid19 admissions have been measured in *weeks*. That would totally screw up any NHS predictions of bed availability, and let's not forget the NHS is short of beds at the best of times. Plus there would be the problem of NHS staff themselves falling sick, and the huge impracticalities of delivering healthcare from inside biohazard suits. 
The NHS are going to need protection from this disease, so I think extraordinary measures are inevitable. School closures? Travel restrictions? Who knows!

Fingers crossed for warmer weather to slow the disease down.


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## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

lazybloke said:


> Surely a busy hospital in a densely populated area is the _ideal _place to have the pods and other facilities?
> Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
> 
> After all, the Chief Medical Officer did say only yesterday that (I'll paraphrase): a Global Pandemic is now almost a certainty.
> ...



Yeah but Mark F hasn't seen anyone using the pods - so we might as well take them down.


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## Chris S (6 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> 85 uk cases - don't panic


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## fossyant (6 Mar 2020)

Gyms are a breeding ground for germs anyway. Humid conditions, body sweat on equipment that's not cleaned often. Perfectly fine most of the time, but might not be the best idea at present.


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## Chris S (6 Mar 2020)

I've seen people putting sanitizer gel on their hands at gym, after lying on shared exercise mats.

EDIT: fossyant just beat me to it.


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## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Gyms are a breeding ground for germs anyway. Humid conditions, body sweat on equipment that's not cleaned often. Perfectly fine most of the time, but might not be the best idea at present.



Its a dilemma for me - because as an asthmatic the bit of cardio helps keep my cv in good nick - and helps with my back pain. I can't yet excercise too much outside as the cold irritates my asthma. at the moment while the number of cases is low I am still going to the gym.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

Chris S said:


> I've seen people putting sanitizer gel on their hands at gym, after lying on shared exercise mats.
> 
> EDIT: fossyant just beat me to it.



Buts its youre hands that are key - with you hands you touch you face.


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## Mo1959 (6 Mar 2020)

Just back from the Co-op. The panic buying looks to have started. Tinned food, tissues, hand sanitiser, paracetamol all out of stock!


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## Ming the Merciless (6 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Its a dilemma for me - because as an asthmatic the bit of cardio helps keep my cv in good nick - and helps with my back pain. I can't yet excercise too much outside as the cold irritates my asthma. at the moment while the number of cases is low I am still going to the gym.



The stairs in your house can be a good workout. Go up and down them for a few minutes.


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## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just back from the Co-op. The panic buying looks to have started. Tinned food, tissues, hand sanitiser, paracetamol all out of stock!



I think the panic phase will pass when people start recovering "Next door neighbour had it - its feck all" etc - at the moment we don't have any of those stories.

People need to think of the bigger picture instead of just themselves. If we have shortage of bog roll and people can't practice good personal hygiene - those bog roll hoarders are then more likely to get infected.


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## Ming the Merciless (6 Mar 2020)

Exactly and if others don’t have hand sanitisers when out and about, because you hoarded them, then it’s more likely the virus will be sitting on a surface waiting for your hand.


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## PK99 (6 Mar 2020)

"Where are we going Piglet?" asked Pooh.

"We need to get supplies," said Piglet. "For the Coronavirus"

"Ahh," said Pooh, nodding in understanding. "Things like bread, milk, cough mixture, tissues and cat litter even though we don't have a cat?"

Piglet did a little laugh, and a sort of leap and bit of a cough. "No," said Piglet. "No, those aren't the sort of supplies we need at all! What we need are family sized bags of chocolate buttons, massive toblerone, jelly babies and crunchies and a freezer full of stuffed crust pizzas, and all of the Prosecco that we can possibly carry, so that when we get quarantined we won't mind it even slightly. THOSE are supplies."

All of a sudden, Pooh thought that the idea of coronavirus didn't seem quite so bad, and actually, getting quarantined with Piglet and their supplies really didn't sound such a terrible thing after all. 

"Oh Piglet," said Pooh. "I really do think you are a very wise animal."


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Mar 2020)




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## fossyant (6 Mar 2020)

I was at a supermarket this week with 4 boxes of 40 cat food pouches and a huge bag of dried food. I said, "I'm not stock piling, this won't last two weeks - we've got 5 cats".


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## Milkfloat (6 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> I was at a supermarket this week with 4 boxes of 40 cat food pouches and a huge bag of dried food. I said, "I'm not stock piling, this won't last two weeks - we've got 5 cats".


At least you have something to eat if you are in a real lock down. Of course that assumes you keep the cat flap closed.


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## Dave7 (6 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> MacDonalds touch screens


MrsD was in Argos last week and a woman using a touch screen just openly sneezed 3 times.....right onto the screen. No tissue and no attempt to control it.
I asked "why did you not say something"?
Scary answer was "she was black, I was frightened she might accuse me of being racist".
I know that, given time to think, there were several options but point is..........those touch screens can be deadly.


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## nickyboy (6 Mar 2020)

Chief Medical Officer has said that their models suggest a peak infection rate in 2-3 months time. 50% of all infections will occur in a 3 week period and 95% within a 9 week period. 

So based on that, we might expect the new infections to peak May/June and drop to a very small number by July/August

What is unknown is the number of total infections. A lot of that is down to us and the various mitigation strategies available to us


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## Dave7 (6 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just back from the Co-op. The panic buying looks to have started. Tinned food, tissues, hand sanitiser, paracetamol all out of stock!


No sign at all of panic buying here. I had no problem buying the last 400 toilet rolls and 72 packs of paracetemol at our co-op


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> MrsD was in Argos last week and a woman using a touch screen just openly sneezed 3 times.....right onto the screen. No tissue and no attempt to control it.
> I asked "why did you not say something"?
> Scary answer was "she was black, I was frightened she might accuse me of being racist".
> I know that, given time to think, there were several options but point is..........those touch screens can be deadly.



At the hospital yesterday, young couple go to their car (parked in a disabled bay with no badge) as I'm getting the wife's wheelchair out of the back of ours. He gets in, winds down the window and gobs out of it. Cue torrent of abuse from me and he roars away giving me the finger. Ignorant arse.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

FFS the only paper I could get my hands on was playboy and penthouse magazines - you gotta do what you gotta do eh ?


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> At the hospital yesterday, young couple go to their car (parked in a disabled bay with no badge) as I'm getting the wife's wheelchair out of the back of ours. He gets in, winds down the window and gobs out of it. Cue torrent of abuse from me and he roars away giving me the finger. Ignorant arse.


Makes you wonder if the world is worth saving !


----------



## PK99 (6 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> FFS the only paper I could get my hands on was playboy and penthouse magazines - you gotta do what you gotta do eh ?



shiny paper!worse than Izal!


----------



## Low Gear Guy (6 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 507269


The government minister said we do not need experts.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (6 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Chief Medical Officer has said that their models suggest a peak infection rate in 2-3 months time. 50% of all infections will occur in a 3 week period and 95% within a 9 week period.
> 
> *So based on that, we might expect the new infections to peak May/June and drop to a very small number by July/August*
> 
> What is unknown is the number of total infections. A lot of that is down to us and the various mitigation strategies available to us



I think that is predicated on many changes to modus operandi that have not yet happened. Tube trains are still crowded, nobody wears a mask, people with flu-like symptoms from high risk countries are just asked to self-isolate at home - what about the family members, given the WHO has concluded cross infection within households was the biggest issue in Wuhan, hence the lock down was effective/necessary. 

I wonder if enough has been done, when we are clearly far from being as diligent as places like Singapore and Hong Kong*, which have managed to stop it in its track, for now anyway.

* copy link to an incognito tab of your browser if you can't read it


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Mar 2020)

Getting imaginative in Australia


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I think that is predicated on many changes to modus operandi that have not yet happened. Tube trains are still crowded, nobody wears a mask, people with flu-like symptoms from high risk countries are just asked to self-isolate at home - what about the family members, given the WHO has concluded cross infection within households was the biggest issue in Wuhan, hence the lock down was effective/necessary.
> 
> I wonder if enough has been done, when we are clearly far from being as diligent as places like Singapore and Hong Kong*, which have managed to stop it in its track, for now anyway.
> 
> * copy link to an incognito tab of your browser if you can't read it



Can the free west force people to stay in there homes ? (Boris Johnson has said he supports free movement of people)


----------



## Fab Foodie (6 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The stairs in your house can be a good workout. Go up and down them for a few minutes.


I do that....it doesn't work... every time I get to the top, I can't remember why I went up stairs....then I think I remember - oh, maybe it's to remove this exercise kit, that'll be it....


----------



## Blue Hills (6 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just back from the Co-op. The panic buying looks to have started. Tinned food, tissues, hand sanitiser, paracetamol all out of stock!


wot ALL tinned food?
Luckily I have very broadminded tastes so am sure I can rustle up something from tins that will keep me fed/happy.
And veg can hardly be panic stockpiled.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

2nd UK Death


----------



## marinyork (6 Mar 2020)

One of the chinese supermarkets in town is almost totally empty of stock. One of the buildings at uni where a lot of chinese students go (literally hundreds) is starting to empty.

Two british airways staff have contracted the virus.


----------



## Dave7 (6 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> shiny paper!worse than Izal!


I tried using kitchen foil this morning. I don't recommend it unless you double it over


----------



## Milkfloat (6 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Chief Medical Officer has said that their models suggest a peak infection rate in 2-3 months time. 50% of all infections will occur in a 3 week period and 95% within a 9 week period.
> 
> So based on that, we might expect the new infections to peak May/June and drop to a very small number by July/August



To my mind that says on an individual level you might as well try and contract it now whilst the NHS is still functioning. Do you think a Corona party would work like a chicken pox party?


----------



## Milkfloat (6 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Can the free west force people to stay in there homes ? (Boris Johnson has said he supports free movement of people)


The why the fark is he taking us out of the EU?


----------



## fossyant (6 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> One of the chinese supermarkets in town is almost totally empty of stock. One of the buildings at uni where a lot of chinese students go (literally hundreds) is starting to empty.
> 
> Two british airways staff have contracted the virus.



Seen a few student's wearing masks, and same in Hulme Asda earlier. Fair amount of stocks in Asda (including rice etc), didn't spot anything missing. We'd be in trouble if the Chinese supermarkets in China Town were emptying in Manchester.


----------



## marinyork (6 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Seen a few student's wearing masks, and same in Hulme Asda earlier. Fair amount of stocks in Asda (including rice etc), didn't spot anything missing. We'd be in trouble if the Chinese supermarkets in China Town were emptying in Manchester.



Masks are normal to see anyway here.

Normal shops and supermarkets fine. It's the chinese ones. Said that people are isolating themselves. If that is the case probs good whatever your ethnicity.

I am expecting cases to start rising by 100 a day, maybe even that'll happen today or the end of the weekend. Not sure what will happen with uni, whether they would close it down.


----------



## Skibird (6 Mar 2020)

Up to 163 now and suspected death at a hospital in Milton Keynes


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Mar 2020)

Skibird said:


> Up to 163 now and suspected death at a hospital in Milton Keynes



It's a hospital, you'd think they'd know.


----------



## marinyork (6 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> It's a hospital, you'd think they'd know.



The tests are slow, one of the reasons Boris going on about splurging dosh on tech (maybe help in future pandemics).

As said up thread somewhere there was an edict for testing ICU wards for the virus. Whether that happens or when tests run out.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (6 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Can the free west force people to stay in there homes ? (Boris Johnson has said he supports free movement of people)



The government can certainly advice, for schools to be closed, for all crowded activities avoided, for companies asking people working from home if at all possible, telling people how to use what masks etc. etc.

For anybody who has the time, I strongly recommend reading this WHO report, which is full of lessons learnt - what was done in China and why they did it is sobering - I am not optimistic this government, or most western governments, will/can mobilise people similarly to deal with the problem. 

Since the government is hardly doing anything, what I think is going to happen is more people will be infected, and die, before fear gives rise to the same restrictions, whether self imposed or otherwise. With Italy, we have a live "case study" right in front of our own eyes right now. I suspect we will be just like them, it is just a matter of time.


----------



## nickyboy (6 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> The government can certainly advice, for schools to be closed, for all crowded activities avoided, for companies asking people working from home if at all possible, telling people how to use what masks etc. etc.
> 
> For anybody who has the time, I strongly recommend reading this WHO report, which is full of lessons learnt - what was done in China and why they did it is sobering - I am not optimistic this government, or most western governments, will/can mobilise people similarly to deal with the problem.
> 
> Since the government is hardly doing anything, what I think is going to happen is more people will be infected, and die, before fear gives rise to the same restrictions, whether self imposed or otherwise. With Italy, we have a live "case study" right in front of our own eyes right now. I suspect we will be just like them, it is just a matter of time.


In many ways China "took one for the team" in imposing the restrictions they did. They could have adopted less restrictive practices like Western countries are doing and hurt their economy less. But they didn't and this caused a delay in the spread of the virus. This delay has been invaluable to Western countries.

I am impressed by the CMO and I'm also impressed by the government following the science to make decisions (but being just into a 5 year term with a large majority makes this decision easy, unlike for Trump). I remain hopeful that the fundamental feeling of civic duty will ensure we all do everything we can to minimise the effect of CV


----------



## Milkfloat (6 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The tests are slow, one of the reasons Boris going on about splurging dosh on tech (maybe help in future pandemics).
> 
> As said up thread somewhere there was an edict for testing ICU wards for the virus. Whether that happens or when tests run out.


I think you missed the joke.


----------



## Smokin Joe (6 Mar 2020)

I've dug out my old laptop which runs on Linux, so I should be safe.


----------



## marinyork (6 Mar 2020)

Milkfloat said:


> I think you missed the joke.



I'm immune to the them.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> The government can certainly advice, for schools to be closed, for all crowded activities avoided, for companies asking people working from home if at all possible, telling people how to use what masks etc. etc.
> 
> For anybody who has the time, I strongly recommend reading this WHO report, which is full of lessons learnt - what was done in China and why they did it is sobering - I am not optimistic this government, or most western governments, will/can mobilise people similarly to deal with the problem.
> 
> Since the government is hardly doing anything, what I think is going to happen is more people will be infected, and die, before fear gives rise to the same restrictions, whether self imposed or otherwise. With Italy, we have a live "case study" right in front of our own eyes right now. I suspect we will be just like them, it is just a matter of time.


Thats exactly as I see it. Johnson seems to be focusing on the aftermath - its almost as though they want to 'get it over with' - We are being primed for a horrible couple of months - when the health services will not be able to cope.

The draconian measures in china seem to have worked - the less severe measures don't - that said the uk cases haven't racked up as much as I though I thought we would be in 600's by now.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (6 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> 2d UK Death



What's so shocking about two people out of a 60 million population dying of a flu-like virus? It's a non-story.
How many people die from regular Flu every year? What about Pneumonia? Is the death rate from the Coronavirus any worse than a number of other illnesses that are commonly contracted? By the hysterical nonsense being bandied about anyone would think we were talking about an outbreak of the Bubonic Plague.

I've had a head cold, headache, and been sneezing and blowing my nose for the last two days. I usually get a similar one once or twice a year, so is hardly unexpected. Does that mean I have it? I know it's not regular Flu, because I don't feel that rough, and it hasn't been bad enough to make me go off sick at work. So, I'm guessing its some sort of virus, but it could be any number of varieties. The reality is that millions of us get some sort of illness every year and possibly several times during a year - but unless it makes us ill enough to stop us doing our day to day activities, the exact infection is never diagnosed and it doesn't appear on any government stats.


----------



## PaulB (6 Mar 2020)

The aftermath:

The good. Illnesses such as colds, flu etc will drop in number because the message to wash your hands, don't cough and sneeze without covering your mouth and reduce touching items in public buildings will be carried on.
Plenty of good investment opportunities during the inevitable recovery.

The bad. Government will not rescind the new powers they've bestowed upon themselves leading to more restrictions, more monitoring and fewer freedoms.
The little trumped-up hitlers will not relinquish the powers that will have gone to their heads.

I'm basing this on the aftermath of the foot-and-mouth epidemic in the early part of this century. Places like canal banks which had never seen cattle were closed to the public for no benefit whatsoever to anybody. People with their buckets of disinfectant would cause traffic chaos on country roads by jumping out in front of cars in their hi-viz jackets and insist on spraying your tyres before allowing you to progress on your journey. This was up to about five months after restrictions had been lifted. 

One Consultant Anaesthetist said to me last week that there was some talk of a radicalised religious nutter purposefully infecting himself and spreading the virus to as many people and in as many places as possible. He says the police had discussed that with him.


----------



## lazybloke (6 Mar 2020)

Has Ride London been cancelled yet?


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> What's so shocking about two people out of a 60 million population dying of a flu-like virus? It's a non-story.
> How many people die from regular Flu every year? What about Pneumonia? Is the death rate from the Coronavirus any worse than a number of other illnesses that are commonly contracted? By the hysterical nonsense being bandied about anyone would think we were talking about an outbreak of the Bubonic Plague.
> 
> I've had a head cold, headache, and been sneezing and blowing my nose for the last two days. I usually get a similar one once or twice a year, so is hardly unexpected. Does that mean I have it? I know it's not regular Flu, because I don't feel that rough, and it hasn't been bad enough to make me go off sick at work. So, I'm guessing its some sort of virus, but it could be any number of varieties. The reality is that millions of us get some sort of illness every year and possibly several times during a year - but unless it makes us ill enough to stop us doing our day to day activities, the exact infection is never diagnosed and it doesn't appear on any government stats.



Mate all I wrote was that a 2nd UK person had died.
I couldn't really give a shite if you have a cough.
Most of the other dieseases you mention have a vaccine.
And yes with a fatality rate of between 0.85 and 3.4 it is worse. That doesn't mean we are all going to die - but it's a lot worse than seasonal flu.


----------



## nickyboy (6 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Thats exactly as I see it. Johnson seems to be focusing on the aftermath - its almost as though they want to 'get it over with' - We are being primed for a horrible couple of months - when the health services will not be able to cope.
> 
> The draconian measures in china seem to have worked - the less severe measures don't - that said the uk cases haven't racked up as much as I though I thought we would be in 600's by now.


It's a difficult balance to be struck. China decided to throw the kitchen sink at it and it worked in terms of restricting the virus. The cost will be somewhere between 6-8% of GDP this year. They of course have a political system that allows very fast implementation of draconian measures. They also have, to a large extent, a population that is accepting of the primacy of the power of the State

Western countries have taken the view that they can't afford a GDP hit like this. In any case, it is highly unlikely that, for example UK, citizens would accept the sort of restrictions implemented by China's government. Could you imagine the entire Greater London being told they cannot leave the city at all and no body can come in. For what is now 6 weeks and counting?


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (6 Mar 2020)

lazybloke said:


> Has Ride London been cancelled yet?



I won't be losing any sleep over it if it does get binned, as the amount of disruption it causes to ordinary Londoners going about their business is a complete pain in the arse. 
Hopefully Boris will have enough nous to ban public demonstrations & gatherings just in time for when those Extinction Rebellion idiots plan to create some more chaos, then they could come down on them like a ton of bricks for breaching emergency measures - like they should have done last time.


----------



## Rusty Nails (6 Mar 2020)

Had to go to the chemist today to pick up a prescription for my son. I asked if they had any sanitizing gel as we don't have any at home.
The chemist told me that they are finding it difficult getting hold of any for themselves and then said that the local hospital is having problems with people stealing the sanitizer bottles that are left on desks or in the wall dispensers.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I won't be losing any sleep over it if it does get binned, as the amount of disruption it causes to ordinary Londoners going about their business is a complete pain in the arse.
> Hopefully Boris will have enough nous to ban public demonstrations & gatherings just in time for when those Extinction Rebellion idiots plan to create some more chaos, then they could come down on them like a ton of bricks for breaching emergency measures - like they should have done last time.



Jesus u seem like a really nice bloke ! (I'd ignore the handwashing advice if I were you)


----------



## PK99 (6 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> It's a difficult balance to be struck.* China decided to throw the kitchen sink at it and it worked in terms of restricting the virus*.



Only after lying and trying to cover up in the first few weeks. Like the Russians and Chernobyl, the apparatchiks first of all tried denial and cover up and only when the problem became irrefutably visible did they do anything - some weeks after the issue first became apparent.

RIP Dr Li Wenliang.


----------



## Smokin Joe (6 Mar 2020)

R4's Today programme interviewed The governments Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance this morning. He gave a clear and level headed summary of the likely effects which was a 20% infection rate with around 1% or less resulting in fatalities. Of course no one can be certain of the outcome, but it was in stark contrast to the hysterical screamings of papers like the Mail and the Express, which is where a few people here seem to be getting their information.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> R4's Today programme interviewed The governments Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance this morning. He gave a clear and level headed summary of the likely effects which was a 20% infection rate with around 1% or less resulting in fatalities. Of course no one can be certain of the outcome, but it was in stark contrast to the hysterical screamings of papers like the Mail and the Express, which is where a few people here seem to be getting their information.


Sounds feasible.
Not much mileage has been given to the infection % per country .


----------



## Jimidh (6 Mar 2020)

As 


Rusty Nails said:


> Had to go to the chemist today to pick up a prescription for my son. I asked if they had any sanitizing gel as we don't have any at home.
> The chemist told me that they are finding it difficult getting hold of any for themselves and then said that the local hospital is having problems with people stealing the sanitizer bottles that are left on desks or in the wall dispensers.


As an owner of a few pharmacies this is correct. We have been wiped out and can’t order anymore. 

Just wait for drug shortages next. You will be paying over £1 for a pack of Paracetamol in the next few weeks as most wholesalers have ran out and the cost price has risen from around 20p per pack to 70-80p.

Lots of common generic medicines have already gone into short supply as the Indian Government has put an export ban on some products.

Happy Days!!


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (6 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> *In many ways China "took one for the team" in imposing the restrictions they did.* They could have adopted less restrictive practices like Western countries are doing and hurt their economy less. But they didn't and this caused a delay in the spread of the virus. *This delay has been invaluable to Western countries.*


While I agree with you, the implication of the alternative would also have been extremely serious nationally - if they hadn't hit it hard and fast, the issue would not have just concentrated in Wuhan/Hubei, it would have led to the disease exploding in communities c20+ times in magnitude WITHIN China - witness Beijing, Shanghai etc. have all escaped largely unscathed - Wuhan is only their 9th most populous city. Once it has spread geographically, they could not have mobilised the healthcare personnel, in tens of thousands from other provinces, concentrating the national efforts on hitting the problem areas such as they did with Wuhan/Hubei, the consequence of which would likely have meant much greater fatalities everywhere than the c20+ factor might indicate.

It seems to me their playbook was well thought out, and worked quickly. But we don't seem to be following it.



nickyboy said:


> It's a difficult balance to be struck. China decided to throw the kitchen sink at it and it worked in terms of restricting the virus. The cost will be somewhere between 6-8% of GDP this year. They of course have a political system that allows very fast implementation of draconian measures. They also have, to a large extent, a population that is accepting of the primacy of the power of the State
> 
> *Western countries have taken the view that they can't afford a GDP hit like this.*



Leaving people's lives aside just for the sake of discussion, I find it difficult to see why the economy will necessarily be better off, if the problem is allowed to brew and expand, making it harder and taking longer to deal with.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> While I agree with you, the implication of the alternative would also have been extremely serious nationally - if they hadn't hit it hard and fast, the issue would not have just concentrated in Wuhan/Hubei, it would have led to the disease exploding in communities c20+ times in magnitude WITHIN China - witness Beijing, Shanghai etc. have all escaped largely unscathed - Wuhan is only their 9th most populous city. Once it has spread geographically, they could not have mobilised the healthcare personnel, in tens of thousands from other provinces, concentrating the national efforts on hitting the problem areas such as they did with Wuhan/Hubei, the consequence of which would likely have meant much greater fatalities everywhere than the c20+ factor might indicate.
> 
> It seems to me their playbook was well thought out, and worked quickly. But we don't seem to be following it.
> 
> ...


I think the interpretation might be for example an estimate that 20k* people are going to die. The choice is the time frame. Do we struggle to keep the weekly/month count down - but it goes on longer - or do we let all hell break loose for 3 months.
*Yes just a figure I pulled out of the sky.


----------



## MarkF (6 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yeah but Mark F hasn't seen anyone using the pods - so we might as well take them down.



Quite few were tested today, I watched on my break to see what happens.

You appear to watch virus death news like others wait for news on transfer deadline day.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Quite few were tested today, I watched on my break to see what happens.
> 
> You appear to watch virus death news like others wait for news on transfer deadline day.


Guilty as charged ! Slow work week !


----------



## Smokin Joe (6 Mar 2020)

The Chinese were forced to take drastic measures because they ignored the problem for quite a while and denied there even was one, going as far as arresting the doctor who first discovered it for "Causing alarm and panic". Hopefully, the early precautions taken here and in other countries will make it's impact on us much less severe.


----------



## PeteXXX (6 Mar 2020)




----------



## slowmotion (6 Mar 2020)

^^^^^ You forgot the impending mega-tsunami from the Canaries that will most certainly drown us all in our beds.
You'll need more lavatory paper.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatsunami


----------



## nickyboy (6 Mar 2020)

Found this in the pub tonight. Probably more valuable than a bag of crack


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> View attachment 507344


Don't think anyone is suggesting it's going to kill us all.
See a few posts where a UK advisor talks of a 20% infection rate and just below 1% fatality rate. All estimates of course - and don't forget the 20% won't all be infected at the same time.


----------



## Rusty Nails (6 Mar 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> View attachment 507344



The post is simplistically amusing as a comment on the scares that regularly arise these days except for the fact that no-one said those things were going to kill us all. 

Y2K was my favourite, although none of them come close to the Cuba crisis.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (6 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> View attachment 507351
> 
> 
> Found this in the pub tonight. Probably more valuable than a bag of crack



I hope you’ve disinfected that bottle first.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The post is simplistically amusing as a comment on the scares that regularly arise these days except for the fact that no-one said those things were going to kill us all.
> 
> Y2K was my favourite, although none of them come close to the Cuba crisis.




The daily express has almost daily been predicting an artic blast - snow storms almost every day since October - track it for few days hilarious.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (6 Mar 2020)

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/06/cope-without-toilet-paper-case-coronavirus-related-shortage-12358036/


----------



## slowmotion (6 Mar 2020)

Just clean your bum with your fingers and a jug of water, FFS. Most of the world's population does. The rest of the "civilised World" leave piles of Andrex behind every rock on every trekking trail in Nepal. They probably hang dog sh*t in plastic bags from trees, every time they go for a walk too.
Maybe we are overdue for a thinning out of the herd.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The post is simplistically amusing as a comment on the scares that regularly arise these days except for the fact that no-one said those things were going to kill us all.
> 
> Y2K was my favourite, although none of them come close to the Cuba crisis.




The daily express has almost daily been predicting an artic blast - snow storms almost every day since October - track it for few days hilarious


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Just clean your bum with your fingers and a jug of water, FFS. Most of the world's population does. The rest of the "civilised World" leave piles of Andrex behind every rock on every trekking trail in Nepal. They probably hang dog sh*t in plastic bags from trees, every time they go for a walk too.
> Maybe we are overdue for a thinning out of the herd.


Yeah some people wouldn't be a loss to the gene pool.
It's feckin death by pasta as well !!!


----------



## kingrollo (6 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Just clean your bum with your fingers and a jug of water, FFS. Most of the world's population does. The rest of the "civilised World" leave piles of Andrex behind every rock on every trekking trail in Nepal. They probably hang dog sh*t in plastic bags from trees, every time they go for a walk too.
> Maybe we are overdue for a thinning out of the herd.


I'm going to get Mrs KR to do mine.

Be good practice for when my arse muscles relax in 15 years time !!!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Mar 2020)

Length of hose from the bathroom sink to the loo, job jobbed (or jobbie jobbed)


----------



## slowmotion (6 Mar 2020)

Have bum guns sold out yet?
You read it here first, folks.


----------



## slowmotion (6 Mar 2020)

The Romans used natural sponges and running water. Gwyneth Paltrow is probably working on the case.


----------



## Beebo (7 Mar 2020)

The UK doesn’t have any manufacturing facilities to mass produce a vaccine even if we can develop one. 

“Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said that there was no guarantee that large producers such as China, the US and the EU would reserve supplies of vaccines for Britain.
“It will be your own people first,” he said. The lack of a British facility was “a national security risk”, he added.”


----------



## Levo-Lon (7 Mar 2020)

Biggest threat to the UK is Facebook and other shyte peddler sites.

Peterborough walk in center went into total meltdown in the week when a person was told to go there as she was unwell, she then mentioned her friend had just come back from Italy.

Place was emptied ,police called, they tried to lock the woman in the building.

So we have now got to a state of professional panic , pathetic ott idiots


----------



## tom73 (7 Mar 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-51771584
Visitors steal hand sanitiser gel from hospital inc ripping them from wall 
FFS what's wrong with these people. Great work put already ill people at even bigger risk not to mention the staff the very people ones who these people will no doubt need at some point.


----------



## tom73 (7 Mar 2020)

Two cases now in my area.... I'm I in a panic ..... no 
Say's a lot about our local council just when you need to get a sensible message out. The best they can do is hide it on the website on the news page which no one users as it full of boring meeting and committee stuff.


----------



## Blue Hills (7 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I couldn't really give a shite if you have a cough.


What have you caught?
Sounds savage.
Hope it doesn't spread.


----------



## Stephenite (7 Mar 2020)

Here's one for the conspiracy theorists 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

If you zoom in on the red dot on the UK you come to Longtown, Cumbria. Centre of the foot-and-mouth crisis and secret military base! 

If you scratch a little beneath the surface it all starts to makes sense. ​


----------



## kingrollo (7 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Biggest threat to the UK is Facebook and other shyte peddler sites.
> 
> Peterborough walk in center went into total meltdown in the week when a person was told to go there as she was unwell, she then mentioned her friend had just come back from Italy.
> 
> ...


Jesus how very depressing. Nobody thought to try and help the poor lady ? - who after all had committed no crime ?


----------



## kingrollo (7 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> What have you caught?
> Sounds savage.
> Hope it doesn't spread.


Yeah fair play it was an unwarranted response.


----------



## Blue Hills (7 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yeah fair play it was an unwarranted response.


Thanks for the reply.
Brightened a dull skyed (so ride off) morn.
Maybe this place is getting nicer. (As in even nicer)


----------



## marinyork (7 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Two cases now in my area.... I'm I in a panic ..... no
> Say's a lot about our local council just when you need to get a sensible message out. The best they can do is hide it on the website on the news page which no one users as it full of boring meeting and committee stuff.



What are the cases in Sheffield?

I know a lot of things are going on way out of sheffield in mecborough at a GP surgery. Also a school where a parent of a pupil tested positive.


----------



## Slioch (7 Mar 2020)

I thought this was an interesting comparison between (not so?) different cultures.

In the UK we're stockpiling toilet paper. In the USA they're stockpiling ammo.


----------



## Andy in Germany (7 Mar 2020)

People are still stockpiling pasta and bog roll here. Seriously: we've had 400 known cases in just over two months, which means probably lots more where symptoms were so mild that people didn't notice anything, and where they thought it was a common cold and carried on as normal. The biggest problem we have at the moment due to Covid-19 is shortages of toilet paper and pasta.

As of yesterday, no-one has died in Germany. In the same time going on the general average, at least 600 people were killed by cars in the country and no-one thinks twice about it.


----------



## Mo1959 (7 Mar 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> People are still stockpiling pasta and bog roll here. Seriously: we've had 400 known cases in just over two months, which means probably lots more where symptoms were so mild that people didn't notice anything, and where they thought it was a common cold and carried on as normal. The biggest problem we have at the moment due to Covid-19 is shortages of toilet paper and pasta.
> 
> As of yesterday, no-one has died in Germany. In the same time going on the general average, at least 600 people were killed by cars in the country and no-one thinks twice about it.


A Scottish gp has locked down his surgery and doing phone consults. Will unlock for single patients then thorough clean after each patient. Even handing out prescriptions through a window and telling patients to leave them in their car for a few hours before handling them.....it’s getting a bit crazy!


----------



## tom73 (7 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> What are the cases in Sheffield?
> 
> I know a lot of things are going on way out of sheffield in mecborough at a GP surgery. Also a school where a parent of a pupil tested positive.


No not sheffield your safe for now


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (7 Mar 2020)

Off to the football today where the players have been told not to shake hands. 

I'll be sitting in close confines with 4000 or so people for two hours, chatting, eating, laughing, singing.....*






*actually, it's Falkirk. We'll all be sitting with our hands covering our eyes muttering "FFS Doyle" for 2 hours


----------



## marinyork (7 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> A Scottish gp has locked down his surgery and doing phone consults. Will unlock for single patients then thorough clean after each patient. Even handing out prescriptions through a window and telling patients to leave them in their car for a few hours before handling them.....it’s getting a bit crazy!



The sad reality is that a small number of the medics in various jobs in surgeries and particularly hospitals directly treating those infected may be very rarely among those who get serious complications or die from this coronavirus.

If it's one of the doctors that still has the practice of being a dispensing doctors that makes sense taking extra precautions.

Maybe the Doctor has OCD. Some of them will. I know two people with OCD who have said they might lock themselves away for 2-3 months.

Maybe the GP is aware the UK cases are about to start jumping quite rapidly in the UK if compared to other countries.


----------



## tom73 (7 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> A Scottish gp has locked down his surgery and doing phone consults. Will unlock for single patients then thorough clean after each patient. Even handing out prescriptions through a window and telling patients to leave them in their car for a few hours before handling them.....it’s getting a bit crazy!



Really FFS...I’d be moving GP if he can’t read simple facts over this. What other knowledge is he lacking?


----------



## Mo1959 (7 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The sad reality is that a small number of the medics in various jobs in surgeries and particularly hospitals directly treating those infected may be very rarely among those who get serious complications or die from this coronavirus.
> 
> If it's one of the doctors that still has the practice of being a dispensing doctors that makes sense taking extra precautions.
> 
> ...


It’s in an area with a predominately elderly population which I think is his main concern which I suppose is sensible.


----------



## marinyork (7 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> It’s in an area with a predominately elderly population which I think is his main concern which I suppose is sensible.



It's difficult. The runaway cases in Italy there are more stats on that and the average age to have died is 81 years old out of 200 patients .


----------



## Mo1959 (7 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Really FFS...I’d be moving GP if he can’t read simple facts over this. What other knowledge is he lacking?


I suspect it is mainly to do with the elderly population in the area. Maybe he feels it is better to be overly cautious.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-51772559


----------



## tom73 (7 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I suspect it is mainly to do with the elderly population in the area. Maybe he feels it is better to be overly cautious.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-51772559


That maybe the case the problem is the message it sends out. As well as a professional responsible for the care he gives. He also has one to prevent panic.


----------



## marinyork (7 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> No not sheffield your safe for now



There is a case here. Cases in Yorkshire not that high though. 

I think it's very likely it'll spread around the main two universities to some greater or lesser extent though.


----------



## kingrollo (7 Mar 2020)

Surlely the best anti dote is for people to help each other ? 
Sadly you offer to help someone these days and you get looked at like you're a loony...

The selfish attitude prevails - people buying up more than they need - thinking f you I'm alright - but with a bit of thought they are making it worse...hand sanitizer should be on peoples hands - not stashed away in someone s cupboard for 6 months.

I will be honest the whole thing does concern me - but I am not going loose my dignity and live like some wild animal - fighting my fellow man.


----------



## Mo1959 (7 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Surlely the best anti dote is for people to help each other ?
> Sadly you offer to help someone these days and you get looked at like you're a loony...
> 
> The selfish attitude prevails - people buying up more than they need - thinking f you I'm alright - but with a bit of thought they are making it worse...hand sanitizer should be on peoples hands - not stashed away in someone s cupboard for 6 months.
> ...


Local lady on Facebook saying when she was in Morrisons there was an American lady trying to fill her basket with as much tissues, hand sanitiser, etc as she could manage. It’s so selfish. I am really starting to despair of society.


----------



## marinyork (7 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Surlely the best anti dote is for people to help each other ?



People say on here that the western world can't impose restrictions as people used to freedom.

I don't think it's so much that, but UK society so atomised, everything is instant me, me, me. You see this all over society all the time on a much more minor level things.


----------



## kingrollo (7 Mar 2020)

A 98 year old and a 101 year old have survived coronavirus in China !.


----------



## byegad (7 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> People say on here that the western world can't impose restrictions as people used to freedom.
> 
> I don't think it's so much that, but UK society so atomised, everything is instant me, me, me. You see this all over society all the time on a much more minor level things.



I quote.
'There's no such thing as society.' 
It was a mantra far too many people took on board and you see it in action every day.
Why would this corivid19 out-break make selfish people any less selfish?

I condemn the quoted sentiment, but a whole generation took it as an excuse to let their greed overcome their conscience. We are seeing it at work now.


----------



## Racing roadkill (7 Mar 2020)

The historical culture of big handshakes / hugs / cheek kissing in Italy is probably why the thing is spreading so much over there. Add in the fact that a lot of the older generation are the most likely to do all of that stuff, and you get a perfect storm. In Iran, there’s a religious culture of kissing religious objects ( licking them in some cases ) which again explains a lot. I think the cultural differences both explain the discrepancy, and help to explain the lack of such severity in spread elsewhere.


----------



## All uphill (7 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> A 98 year old and a 101 year old have survived coronavirus in China !.


Must have been superfit cyclists!


----------



## Slioch (7 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think it's very likely it'll spread around the main two universities to some greater or lesser extent though.



I work at York St John's, so I guess I've got that to look forward to.

To be honest, I've only seen a small handful of students wearing face masks over the last couple of weeks, and they have tended to be our Asian students. A rumour doing the rounds is that there are a lot of students skipping lectures etc, though I've not seen any stats to back that up.


----------



## kingrollo (7 Mar 2020)

All uphill said:


> Must have been superfit cyclists!


And on EPO !


----------



## rualexander (7 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> A 98 year old and a 101 year old have survived coronavirus in China !.


And why wouldn't they?
The death rate in over the 80's is between 15% and 20%, so at least 80% of them are surviving.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (7 Mar 2020)

Scotstoun (Glasgow) rugby stadium and leisure centre closed down for deep cleaning, after an athlete that has been using the facilities has been confirmed having the Corona virus.
Meanwhile (this is not a joke!) our own @flyingfifi, to her dismay, has been reported by a panicked colleague as having the virus .
@flyingfifi was tested, she has the common cold


----------



## Rezillo (7 Mar 2020)

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51


----------



## kingrollo (7 Mar 2020)

I'm that confused with it all - I've just washed my bum with hand gel (ouch !) Then come downstairs and washed my hands in a bowl of pasta !!


----------



## Pale Rider (7 Mar 2020)

First confirmed case in Sunderland.

Is it possible to panic buy chips with batter on?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (7 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I'm that confused with it all - I've just washed my bum with hand gel (ouch !) Then come downstairs and washed my hands in a bowl of pasta !!



You fool, everyone knows the virus is hiding in pasta and rice.


----------



## fossyant (7 Mar 2020)

MIL's nursing home has limited visiting hours - good move as you don't want visitors coming and going all hours at present.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (7 Mar 2020)

Thankfully, Pope Francis is on the case tomorrow (albeit a bit slow off the mark) and will be flinging a prayer skywards.

Obviously, the virus will then wither and die by Monday latest.

But, if by some strange chance it doesn't, it'll be because we are all sinners/unbelievers...


----------



## kingrollo (7 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Thankfully, Pope Francis is on the case tomorrow (albeit a bit slow off the mark) and will be flinging a prayer skywards.
> 
> Obviously, the virus will then wither and die by Monday latest.
> 
> But, if by some strange chance it doesn't, it'll be because we are all sinners/unbelievers...


The pope's done for mate ....he's wearing his mask on his head FFS !!!!


----------



## Mo1959 (7 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> The pope's done for mate ....he's wearing his mask on his head FFS !!!!


That made me LOL.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (7 Mar 2020)

Pope coughs into hand. Clearly hasn’t seen advice.


----------



## marinyork (7 Mar 2020)

Slioch said:


> I work at York St John's, so I guess I've got that to look forward to.
> 
> To be honest, I've only seen a small handful of students wearing face masks over the last couple of weeks, and they have tended to be our Asian students. A rumour doing the rounds is that there are a lot of students skipping lectures etc, though I've not seen any stats to back that up.



There's a very large chinese intake at one of the universities. Many are concentrated in close proximity in the same building and many of residential blocks (which aren't that far separated). Far more people living in the city centre now in close proximity now. Additionally a lot of wealth, a lot of travel, a lot of Iranian, Italian and any country that could possibly have large outbreaks coming and going. Links with industry, people who travel coming and going. Additionally swine flu swept around the student population easily in 2009, although that was very different to this coronavirus that particularly affects people over 40.


----------



## fossyant (7 Mar 2020)

We've got facemasks now. For floor boarding the loft ! Dust and insulation fibres aren't nice. My son's been in the loft all afternoon.


----------



## oldwheels (7 Mar 2020)

I have an appointment with audiology at Oban hospital on the 18th of this month. I have to travel on a ferry with hundreds of passengers unless all frightened off and hospitals are dangerous places. I am probably doomed as I am in a very vulnerable age group. My paperwork is in order but my sheds have not yet been cleared of rubbish. Oh dear.


----------



## Beebo (7 Mar 2020)

My neighbours, both in late 60s are heading off tomorrow on a 3 week cruise. 
It was due to go to India, Sri Lankan and SE Asia. But it’s ow doing Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Oman, and various stops in India. 
They were offered a full refund but decided to go anyway. 
Not sure I would have gone. The risk of being stuck on a quarantined boat is too high. 
I wonder what they will return to?


----------



## screenman (7 Mar 2020)

I have it worked out, drink half a litre of Absolute and u stop worrying.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (7 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Pope coughs into hand. Clearly hasn’t seen advice.
> 
> View attachment 507478



He was. He was adviced by our Chief Medical Officer:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7fuBP99yts


----------



## marinyork (7 Mar 2020)

Other provinces in Italy are being completely closed off like like original 11 towns.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (7 Mar 2020)

Friends are away out to Venice tomorrow. Apparently it's deserted.


----------



## marinyork (7 Mar 2020)

Quick arithmetic suggests Lombardia being shut off totally from the rest of Italy and provinces in Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, Piemonte and Marche is a quarter of the Italian population has been shut off totally from the other three quarters.


----------



## marinyork (7 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Friends are away out to Venice tomorrow. Apparently it's deserted.



I would heavily advise them to to check travel advice tonight. Massive chunks of Italy are being shut off from each other tonight. It appears Venezia is on the list of 11 provinces shut outside of Lombardia.


----------



## johnnyb47 (7 Mar 2020)

I was thinking of going out for a beer tonight but I'm a little reluctant to be honest. It will be packed out and feel it's a perfect place to catch this virus (if it were to be doing the rounds were i live) 
I think I'll give it a miss and save my money and go out cycling tomorrow


----------



## Mike_P (7 Mar 2020)

Shopping is bad enough, one person openly coughing in WHS yesterday and three in Sainsbury's today showering everything and everyone near them.


----------



## Julia9054 (7 Mar 2020)

Just played a concert in York with the youth band I work with. They usually bake and sell cakes in the interval to raise money for the band. We were advised by York Council not to - risk of contracting corona virus from home made cakes apparently.
In other news, i have a cold.


----------



## midlife (7 Mar 2020)

So that's 3 work colleagues I have been working closely with this week that have been on holiday to Northern Italy in the last couple of weeks. So far no symptoms in any of them........


----------



## Jimidh (8 Mar 2020)

We have one of the confirmed Coronavirus patients in Scotland living less than 100m from our house. Caught it in holiday in Thailand.

Bricking it - not!


----------



## Slick (8 Mar 2020)

Jimidh said:


> We have one of the confirmed Coronavirus patients in Scotland living less than 100m from our house. Caught it in holiday in Thailand.
> 
> Bricking it - not!


Chill out, they are still very unlikely to have passed anything onto you unless you are in very close contact with them. Family and work mates are the real danger, and tadgers in general who won't wash their hands. I hope that your neighbor's recover quickly.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> I would heavily advise them to to check travel advice tonight. Massive chunks of Italy are being shut off from each other tonight. It appears Venezia is on the list of 11 provinces shut outside of Lombardia.


Just got a text - "cancelled"


----------



## Dave7 (8 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Off to the football today where the players have been told not to shake hands.
> 
> I'll be sitting in close confines with 4000 or so people for two hours, chatting, eating, laughing, singing.....*
> 
> ...


I watched the Lpool v Bournmouth and saw at least one player 'snot' onto the pitch. I think I would rather risk a handshake than slide into his snot.


----------



## Dave7 (8 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> First confirmed case in Sunderland.
> 
> Is it possible to panic buy chips with batter on?


I believe Scotland is running short of battered Mars bars


----------



## Slick (8 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> I believe Scotland is running short of battered Mars bars


Those reports have been greatly exaggerated, but we do try and encourage the tourists to try a snickers.


----------



## Fab Foodie (8 Mar 2020)

Lockdown Italia....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-reaches-washington-dc?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


----------



## Dave7 (8 Mar 2020)

screenman said:


> I have it worked out, drink half a litre of Absolute and u stop worrying.


Meths is cheaper and will also stop you worrying............maybe for ever


----------



## Dave7 (8 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Quick arithmetic suggests Lombardia being shut off totally from the rest of Italy and provinces in Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, Piemonte and Marche is a quarter of the Italian population has been shut off totally from the other three quarters.


What puzzles me is that the FO have still not declared it a no go area. So anyone with a holiday booked in that area can just kiss goodbye to X£1000s.


----------



## Stephenite (8 Mar 2020)

midlife said:


> So that's 3 work colleagues I have been working closely with this week that have been on holiday to Northern Italy in the last couple of weeks. So far no symptoms in any of them........


Official advice here is to self-quarantine for two weeks from the time of returning if you've been to northern Italy. Whether you have symptoms or not. Just saying...


----------



## marinyork (8 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> What puzzles me is that the FO have still not declared it a no go area. So anyone with a holiday booked in that area can just kiss goodbye to X£1000s.



It's horrid and due to the slow reporting I wonder about people stuck and consequences.

The British media were very slow to report it. Maybe also reflects that.

Strictly speaking what the Guardian eventually wrote up late last night was partially correct, it was a provisional decree, however the commentary on italian tv was this is was drafted hours ago, we are seeing movements and it's being discussed right now and might be signed any second. Dozens of italian news sources and web had it plastered all over the place.

I think when it was eventually being reported sky and the guardian focussed on lombardia so maybe thought well there have already been lockdowns there, meh a big deal but not that interesting. The decrees always included the other areas, but they were not being reported. Fab foodie's guardian article nicely written up two hours ago now includes most (but not all) of the detail.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (8 Mar 2020)

Radio 5 this morning. 

Presenter: _Are you stockpiling_ 
Theresa Villiers: _No, but I have bought extra paracetamol_


----------



## Grant Fondo (8 Mar 2020)

Why is the government leaving containment so late? 82,000 at Twickenham and hundreds of thousands at the footy yesterday/today.
Bizarre.


----------



## Jimidh (8 Mar 2020)

Slick said:


> Chill out, they are still very unlikely to have passed anything onto you unless you are in very close contact with them. Family and work mates are the real danger, and tadgers in general who won't wash their hands. I hope that your neighbor's recover quickly.


I am chilled out. I don’t know them directly but I do know their friends. So fairly slim chance of catching it from them. 

I have more chance of catching it at work as I work in a busy pharmacy and if their is a more widespread outbreak them it’s inevitable that we will be in contact with infectious patients.

At work we are just doubling up on the cleaning of counters, having pens etc just for patient’s use and plenty of soap and water.

We are just planning ahead for our more vulnerable patients who have their medication delivered weekly in dosette boxes so that we are in the position that if our drivers start to fall then we can arrange to get a months supply delivered in one go to see them over the period where deliveries might be problematic.

A few weeks ago we had identified a supply chain risk and ordered bulk supplies of our 400 most commonly dispensed items. This has proven to have been a smart move as the Indian Government has but export restrictions on a number of generic drugs and there are now shortages and price rises in a large number of products.

My main worry though is that we are supposed to be flying off to Rome for a family holiday at Easter so I’m keeping a watchful eye on events there.


----------



## midlife (8 Mar 2020)

Stephenite said:


> Official advice here is to self-quarantine for two weeks from the time of returning if you've been to northern Italy. Whether you have symptoms or not. Just saying...



where are you ?


----------



## Slick (8 Mar 2020)

Jimidh said:


> I am chilled out. I don’t know them directly but I do know their friends. So fairly slim chance of catching it from them.
> 
> I have more chance of catching it at work as I work in a busy pharmacy and if their is a more widespread outbreak them it’s inevitable that we will be in contact with infectious patients.
> 
> ...


All sensible stuff but I'm not sure I'd be heading to Rome any time soon.


----------



## RoadRider400 (8 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> My neighbours, both in late 60s are heading off tomorrow on a 3 week cruise.
> It was due to go to India, Sri Lankan and SE Asia. But it’s ow doing Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Oman, and various stops in India.
> They were offered a full refund but decided to go anyway.
> Not sure I would have gone. The risk of being stuck on a quarantined boat is too high.
> *I wonder what they will return to?*


A life of floating around from port to port because nobody will allow them to dock.


----------



## Dave7 (8 Mar 2020)

Slick said:


> All sensible stuff but I'm not sure I'd be heading to Rome any time soon.


My SiL's family are shortly due to go to Rome for a long weekend. As things are I would just accept the loss and give it a miss


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Mar 2020)

Overheard in Tesco this morning from a scruffy looking young lassie to her boyfriend standing by the empty shelves:

"tut, if you're gonnae get it, you're gonnae get it. Whit's soap gonnae dae?"


----------



## Slick (8 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Overheard in Tesco this morning from a scruffy looking young lassie to her boyfriend standing by the empty shelves:
> 
> "tut, if you're gonnae get it, you're gonnae get it. Whit's soap gonnae dae?"


I had no idea you were from Shettleston.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (8 Mar 2020)

Grant Fondo said:


> Why is the government leaving containment so late? 82,000 at Twickenham and hundreds of thousands at the footy yesterday/today.
> Bizarre.



I entirely agree with you. 82,000 at Twickenham is nothing, when you see the packed tube trains, buses etc.

Given the growth characteristic of these things, for every day's delay, the magnitude of the problem is increased by c25% from the day before - it is an exponential growth. If you want to see how it looks, look up graphs at Wikipedia for Italy and UK. I believe we are about 10 to 14 days behind Italy, and there is nothing I can see that is stopping our progression up the curve.

Talking about tube trains, regarding masks, the UK government is practically discouraging people to wear it, while their use at places like HK is essentially universal, encouraged by the government, and certainly by social pressure. The two different sets of advice can't both be right. I think we are wrong. For a start, infection has been pretty much stopped in its track in HK, and indeed Macau.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (8 Mar 2020)

Jimidh said:


> My main worry though is that we are supposed to be flying off to Rome for a family holiday at Easter so I’m keeping a watchful eye on events there.


I don't think you'll be allowed: I was reading the latest from Italy in the Italian papers/facebook.
Lots of folks have left the areas now on lock down, just before the lock down became effective.
They were heading to Rome and the South.
Further contagion seems inevitable.
I have family and friends in Rome, will post updates.


----------



## Stephenite (8 Mar 2020)

midlife said:


> where are you ?


Norway.


----------



## marinyork (8 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> I don't think you'll be allowed: I was reading the latest from Italy in the Italian papers/facebook.
> Lots of folks have left the areas now on lock down, just before the lock down became effective.
> They were heading to Rome and the South.
> Further contagion seems inevitable.
> I have family and friends in Rome, will post updates.



Yep.

In the 11 provinces outside lombardia (which covers a gigantic area) it isn't just the province that is restricted but in some cases even leaving your commune. So no leaving the town/city...

Supermarkets closed at weekends. Bars open till 6pm.

There are a lot of provinces as of yesterday officially with no coronavirus cases. But a number in neighbouring provinces. Seems unlikely it will stay that way for longer than a day or two.


----------



## Jimidh (8 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> I don't think you'll be allowed: I was reading the latest from Italy in the Italian papers/facebook.
> Lots of folks have left the areas now on lock down, just before the lock down became effective.
> They were heading to Rome and the South.
> Further contagion seems inevitable.
> I have family and friends in Rome, will post updates.


It would be good if someone made a decision - flights are already paid so if the government banned travel then we could get a refund. 
It must be a nightmare for all the hoteliers and restaurant owners and their staff in these areas who will be relying on tourist business for their liveliehood.


----------



## Beebo (8 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> My neighbours, both in late 60s are heading off tomorrow on a 3 week cruise.
> It was due to go to India, Sri Lankan and SE Asia. But it’s ow doing Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Oman, and various stops in India.
> They were offered a full refund but decided to go anyway.
> Not sure I would have gone. The risk of being stuck on a quarantined boat is too high.
> I wonder what they will return to?


Update. 
The cruise was cancelled this morning. Just 7 hours before the plane was taking off from Heathrow. There will be some people who would have already started travelling to the airport.


----------



## Skibird (8 Mar 2020)

First case reported on the IOW, from St Mary's hospital (last night)


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Mar 2020)

This is good -


View: https://twitter.com/PalliThordarson/status/1236549305189597189


----------



## Mugshot (8 Mar 2020)

2 cases confirmed in Pembrokeshire, couple had recently returned from Northern Italy. They're currently on lockdown.


----------



## numbnuts (8 Mar 2020)

Skibird said:


> First case reported on the IOW, from St Mary's hospital (last night)


I think we should stop the IOW ferrys


----------



## Dave7 (8 Mar 2020)

Jimidh said:


> It would be good if someone made a decision - flights are already paid so if the government banned travel then we could get a refund.
> It must be a nightmare for all the hoteliers and restaurant owners and their staff in these areas who will be relying on tourist business for their liveliehood.


Which government, uk or italy??
If our government doesn't step in then I doubt there will be any refund.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Mar 2020)

Slick said:


> Chill out, they are still very unlikely to have passed anything onto you unless you are in very close contact with them. Family and work mates are the real danger, and tadgers in general who won't wash their hands. I hope that your neighbor's recover quickly.



They did say they weren’t bricking it


----------



## Nigeyy (8 Mar 2020)

Serious question for anyone medically qualified to answer:

I keep reading that a facemask (assuming one that is fit for purpose) will not protect you from the corona virus, but will stop people who have it from spreading it. This seems to infer that:

i. the person who has the Corona virus has it (somewhat) blocked from entering the air around them when they breathe or sneeze. Assuming they sneeze, the maximum velocity of droplets is at the mouth, so the mask must do some considerable blocking.

ii. with the same mask, someone who does not have the virus isn't well protected from breathing it in.

So on one hand, it seems it stops the virus, but on the other, it seems to not stop it. Can anyone clarify that for me? I'm guessing wearing a suitable mask would at least protect you from breathing in some droplets.... Is some efficiency better than no efficiency? 

BTW, I should add I'm not going around wearing a mask and haven't got plans to, nor have I been out panic buying toilet paper or disinfectant wipes! I am, however, curious.


----------



## newfhouse (8 Mar 2020)

Nigeyy said:


> So on one hand, it seems it stops the virus, but on the other, it seems to not stop it. Can anyone clarify that for me?


I think the answer is likely to be that the masks collect saliva, snot etc. If someone sprays your mask with their droplets they will soak through the fabric over time and you will still breathe them in. If you sneeze into your own mask the droplets are no longer airborne so are less likely to reach a recipient.

I am neither a doctor nor a mask wearer.


----------



## Blue Hills (8 Mar 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> People are still stockpiling pasta and bog roll here. Seriously: we've had 400 known cases in just over two months, which means probably lots more where symptoms were so mild that people didn't notice anything, and where they thought it was a common cold and carried on as normal.


Yes I was wondering that - so many many people have maybe already had it/are no longer prey to the thing - so they have nothing to worry about nor those they might come into contact with?
Am assuming that if you have had it once/recovered you can't catch it again/pass it on unless it seriously mutates?
True?


----------



## Mo1959 (8 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Yes I was wondering that - so many many people have maybe already had it/are no longer prey to the thing - so they have nothing to worry about nor those they might come into contact with?
> Am assuming that if you have had it once/recovered you can't catch it again/pass it on unless it seriously mutates?
> True?


I was wondering about that too, and also if it could be like seasonal flu and come back another year as a different strain.


----------



## Blue Hills (8 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> The historical culture of big handshakes / hugs / cheek kissing in Italy is probably why the thing is spreading so much over there. Add in the fact that a lot of the older generation are the most likely to do all of that stuff, and you get a perfect storm. In Iran, there’s a religious culture of kissing religious objects ( licking them in some cases ) which again explains a lot. I think the cultural differences both explain the discrepancy, and help to explain the lack of such severity in spread elsewhere.


A lot of elderly churchgoers in Italy. As I cycled around used to watch them at chucking-out time a fair bit in the bit of Italy I know well. Mostly elderly women from what I could see.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> This is good -
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/PalliThordarson/status/1236549305189597189




It is, including his second follow up thread on Twitter.


----------



## Blue Hills (8 Mar 2020)

Stephenite said:


> Official advice here is to self-quarantine for two weeks from the time of returning if you've been to northern Italy. Whether you have symptoms or not. Just saying...


you sure?
I thought it was just if you have symptoms?
Or have been to some specified towns?


----------



## Smokin Joe (8 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> 2 cases confirmed in Pembrokeshire, couple had recently returned from Northern Italy. They're currently on lockdown.


Apparently they have been self isolating since their return.


----------



## midlife (8 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> you sure?
> I thought it was just if you have symptoms?
> Or have been to some specified towns?



Stephenite is in Norway.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Mar 2020)

Yes different here. If you have the symptoms but haven’t been to an affected area (outside UK) nor knowingly interacted with someone who has, then the NHS isn’t interested in testing you for Covid19


----------



## pawl (8 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> We've got facemasks now. For floor boarding the loft ! Dust and insulation fibres aren't nice. My son's been in the loft all afternoon.


Report sent to Social Services😄😄😄😄😄


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Mar 2020)

Virus is a nano particle, doubt those masks will stop it.


----------



## nickyboy (8 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Virus is a nano particle, doubt those masks will stop it.


Depends what the virus is attached to. If it's a water droplet masks will stop it. However, masks are rarely fitted correctly so they are much better at stopping someone infecting people rather than someone becoming infected

They are good at reminding you not to touch your face though


----------



## Skibird (8 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> I think we should stop the IOW ferrys


Too late lol!


----------



## kingrollo (8 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Virus is a nano particle, doubt those masks will stop it.



There is a YouTube video showing you how to make a mask from a bra.


----------



## screenman (8 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> There is a YouTube video showing you how to make a mask from a bra.



Get the wrong half and you would look a right tit.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (8 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Virus is a nano particle, doubt those masks will stop it.



There are masks and masks. With surgical masks no matter what you do they leave sizeable gaps - but still not useless, as Nickyboy indicated, and then there are "respirators" which usually have a valve in front, and can make you look a little like Anthony Hopkins with his mask in Silence of the Lamb.

In UK/Europe respirators come in 3 grades, FFP1, FFP2 and FFP3. The latter two are equivalent to US' N95, all are pretty effective against nano particles if the fit is good (worn properly). This research shows the protection provided by surgical mask and respirator samples when tested.

I suspect some don't believe the improvement reported in China - similar measures in Hongkong have not only been effective controlling Coronavirus, they have cut normal flu cases to 1% by the end of February, shortening the flu season there by up to 2 months.*


* if you get blocked by the paywall, just copy link and open it in an incognito tab of your browser


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Mar 2020)

I’m taking no chances


----------



## Rusty Nails (8 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I’m taking no chances
> 
> View attachment 507638



I thought you were wearing your face mask in your avatar.


----------



## HMS_Dave (8 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I’m taking no chances
> 
> View attachment 507638


Im a huge fan of the baked potato storage where the hands used to be.


----------



## Slick (8 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I’m taking no chances
> 
> View attachment 507638


Me either.


----------



## AuroraSaab (8 Mar 2020)

Re: the masks thing. As I understand it, they do help prevent an infected person spreading the virus laden droplets a bit, but are less effective in preventing inhalation of said droplets because the moisture in your breath degrades the fibres of the fabric fairly quickly. As we are talking about microscopic sized things, they will get through the fabric after a short period.


I have a very tight rubber mask I use for paint spraying on my car restoration. It is supposed to able to be safely used with 2k paints (which normally require a mask with an external air supply), but only for up to about 2 hours. I presume this is because the same principle applies - the filter degrades quickly. (I don't use it with 2k paint; I just don't like the smell of aerosols).


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> There are masks and masks. With surgical masks no matter what you do they leave sizeable gaps - but still not useless, as Nickyboy indicated, and then there are "respirators" which usually have a valve in front, and can make you look a little like Anthony Hopkins with his mask in Silence of the Lamb.
> 
> In UK/Europe respirators come in 3 grades, FFP1, FFP2 and FFP3. The latter two are equivalent to US' N95, all are pretty effective against nano particles if the fit is good (worn properly). This research shows the protection provided by surgical mask and respirator samples when tested.
> 
> ...



I don’t think anyone in Hong Kong or China is claiming masks is the cause of the improvement but is a result of all the measures implemented.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Mar 2020)

Has this been posted? Confirmed cases by authority 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Mar 2020)

Slick said:


> Me either.
> 
> View attachment 507647



Are you in your Duke of Wellington outfit?


----------



## burntoutbanger (8 Mar 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> Re: the masks thing. As I understand it, they do help prevent an infected person spreading the virus laden droplets a bit, but are less effective in preventing inhalation of said droplets because the moisture in your breath degrades the fibres of the fabric fairly quickly. As we are talking about microscopic sized things, they will get through the fabric after a short period.
> 
> 
> I have a very tight rubber mask I use for paint spraying on my car restoration. It is supposed to able to be safely used with 2k paints (which normally require a mask with an external air supply), but only for up to about 2 hours. I presume this is because the same principle applies - the filter degrades quickly. (I don't use it with 2k paint; I just don't like the smell of aerosols).




I don't think anyone really likes the smell of aerosols (fnar fnar).


----------



## Beebo (8 Mar 2020)

133 dead in one day in Italy! Wow..


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (8 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I don’t think anyone in Hong Kong or China is claiming masks is the cause of the improvement but is a result of all the measures implemented.


Agreed - it is the combination of measures, which the Italians are belatedly applying, while our government is not - it is as if the government wants to wait until the number of infected hit thousands, and hundreds dead, which WILL come in two weeks without change in modus operandi.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (8 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> 133 dead in one day in Italy! Wow..


Whatever they do now, unfortunately I suspect the number of total infected will continue to increase by c25% every day, like it has been, probably for about a week because it takes roughly that long for symptoms to show up and be tested. Fatality will rage on for longer, because it can take over two weeks for the infected to succumb to it.

Their lockdown from today will not reduce transmission within households, which was identified as the main conduit during the lockdown in China, but hopefully it would at least reduce transmission between households substantially, which should stop the exponential increase eventually.

There are debates currently regarding what happens when countries do not act in concert, e.g. Italy slows it down now, but not UK or France or Germany, e.g., which will become the next Italy as sure as night follows day, which may then introduce it back into Italy after they got off their knees!


----------



## Slick (8 Mar 2020)

3 UK deaths now.


----------



## rualexander (8 Mar 2020)

Nigeyy said:


> Serious question for anyone medically qualified to answer:
> 
> I keep reading that a facemask (assuming one that is fit for purpose) will not protect you from the corona virus, but will stop people who have it from spreading it. This seems to infer that:
> 
> ...



Maybe part of it is that you can catch the virus through your eyes which a mask (of the types commonly in use in this instance) does nothing to prevent. But you can't readily transmit the virus from your eyes, only from your mouth and nose via coughs and sneezes etc. which a mask may have some use in preventing or reducing.


----------



## icowden (8 Mar 2020)

There's a good article here:-

https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-new-coronavirus.html

The upshot is that surgical masks do zilch to protect from viruses. They will however help reduce your ability to spread pathogens by containing your coughs and sneezes a little. So if you have Covid19 it might help you reduce your chances of infecting others. If you don't, then it's pointless. The only mask that will work is an N95 respirator, but you had better have fitted it properly.


----------



## slowmotion (9 Mar 2020)

On average, one thousand four hundred people die of something every day in the UK, day in, day out. You will too.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (9 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> On average, one thousand four hundred people die of something every day in the UK, day in, day out. You will too.


But by that argument, thousands die on the roads so we shouldn't bother looking both ways before we cross?


----------



## kingrollo (9 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> On average, one thousand four hundred people die of something every day in the UK, day in, day out. You will too.


And that 1400 will probably remain static.

The number of people dying from c-virus will go up - we don't know at what level it will peak.


----------



## Dave7 (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> There is a YouTube video showing you how to make a mask from a bra.


I aint making a mask from my wifes bra. At least with Coronavirus I would have a fighting chance


----------



## PK99 (9 Mar 2020)

,,


RecordAceFromNew said:


> There are masks and masks. With surgical masks no matter what you do they leave sizeable gaps - but still not useless, as Nickyboy indicated, and then there are "respirators" which usually have a valve in front, and can make you look a little like Anthony Hopkins with his mask in Silence of the Lamb.
> 
> In UK/Europe respirators come in 3 grades, FFP1, FFP2 and FFP3. The latter two are equivalent to US' N95, all are pretty effective against nano particles if the fit is good (worn properly). This research shows the protection provided by surgical mask and respirator samples when tested.
> 
> ...



In the Nuclear industry we used to have Respirator Fit Tests: sit in a chamber and set off a CS gas pellet. The respirators were the full military grade. A failed test was very painful, but some folks failed because of face shape or facial hair.

Little paper masks will do little to protect the user from airborne particulate but will do two things: reduce potential to hand to mouth transfer and restrict spread from an already infected user.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> And that 1400 will probably remain static.
> 
> The number of people dying from c-virus will go up - we don't know at what level it will peak.



We can however do some rough What-if's based on such attitude / inaction.

The population of the lockdown area in Hubei is c60 millions, not that different to the population in UK.

With major intervention, they "achieved" the result of c100,000 infected, c3000 dead. 100,000 is only 0.17% of 60 millions.

In UK, the worst case scenario has been set at 80% infected by the government. Let's say that is pessimistic, and call it 50% with little intervention. If we simply scale it based on the Hubei statistics, that translates to c900,000 dead.

Except that in Hubei, they managed to draft in 40,000 healthcare professionals from elsewhere in the country to help the 100,000. With 50% of 60 millions infected in UK, those requiring intensive care would number millions - meaning the vast majority of them would get ZERO medical attention - medics get infected, e.g. from family members, too. So, 900,000 dead would likely be a VERY optimistic number in such a scenario.

That is the kind of place where complacency can get us. Just saying.


----------



## Shut Up Legs (9 Mar 2020)

Anyone read this? I wish I hadn't 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0301-sitrep-41-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6768306d_2


----------



## fossyant (9 Mar 2020)

My employer has now said no international travel for work, unless absolutely necessary.


----------



## vickster (9 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> My employer has now said no international travel for work, unless absolutely necessary.


Mine said the same 2 weeks ago


----------



## kingrollo (9 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> We can however do some rough What-if's based on such attitude / inaction.
> 
> The population of the lockdown area in Hubei is c60 millions, not that different to the population in UK.
> 
> ...


I don't think it's complacency - there isn't an easy option - let it rip through and see where we are in July seems to be the vibe I am picking up.


----------



## Dave7 (9 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> We can however do some rough What-if's based on such attitude / inaction.
> 
> The population of the lockdown area in Hubei is c60 millions, not that different to the population in UK.
> 
> ...


Well thats cheered me up no end


----------



## marinyork (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't think it's complacency - there isn't an easy option - let it rip through and see where we are in July seems to be the vibe I am picking up.



Find out a bit better sometime after 11am today.


----------



## Dave7 (9 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> My employer has now said no international travel for work, unless absolutely necessary.


Now that phrase puzzles me. The government(s) use it often.
Can your company not just say " no international travel full stop"?
Genuine question.......not having a pop.
BTW.....if the government dont slap a blanket ban then I lose my 2 grand for the holiday I paid for.


----------



## fossyant (9 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Now that phrase puzzles me. The government(s) use it often.
> Can your company not just say " no international travel full stop"?
> Genuine question.......not having a pop.
> BTW.....if the government dont slap a blanket ban then I lose my 2 grand for the holiday I paid for.



For *work* they have said it. They wouldn't stop holidays, but work travel yes - TBH, it's costly and not always needed, but lots of academics do swan off to international conferences, which are getting cancelled. My missus employer manages marketing and events for pharma companies, and they are getting loads of cancellations.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (9 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> My employer has now said no international travel for work, unless absolutely necessary.



I feel really sorry for cabin crew and airport staff who still have to turn up for work to share confined spaces for lengthy periods with travellers from who-knows-where.


----------



## fossyant (9 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I feel really sorry for cabin crew and airport staff who still have to turn up for work to share confined spaces for lengthy periods with travellers from who-knows-where.



And job security issues. 😢


----------



## marinyork (9 Mar 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...virus-public-monitoring-could-be-here-to-stay

An article about checks by China.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (9 Mar 2020)

At the building where my daughter works, security staff won't let you beyond reception until they've tested your temperature and it shows normal. Sure hope they're not using rectal thermometers.


----------



## fossyant (9 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> At the building where my daughter works, security staff won't let you beyond reception until they've tested your temperature and it shows normal. Sure hope they're not using rectal thermometers.



Wonder what happens if you arrive in a sweaty heap as you've just run or cycled to work ?


----------



## Fab Foodie (9 Mar 2020)




----------



## Beebo (9 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> View attachment 507713


Yellow card issued.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Mar 2020)

Iranian state-linked media have announced that 16 people have died from alcohol poisoning in the south-western city of Ahvaz, the latest in a wave of deaths apparently driven by the mistaken belief that alcohol is a vaccine against the coronavirus. Alcohol is banned in the country but is still illegally imported or brewed at home – the latter occasionally resulting in deaths from bad batches


----------



## kingrollo (9 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Find out a bit better sometime after 11am today.



I wouldn't bank on it !

I don't like Boris Johnson (but given my political views I am probably not going too) - But I can't say he is very confidence inspiring with regards to this - he seems to have dumped it all on Christopher Whitty


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Mar 2020)

The great toilet paper crisis

https://www.tiktok.com/@harkdog123/video/6800271492811689222


----------



## PeteXXX (9 Mar 2020)

I bought an 18 pack of toilet rolls t'other day because we needed some. 

I almost felt guilty as I walked out of the shop!


----------



## marinyork (9 Mar 2020)

I have a relative who has been proudly hoarding toilets rolls for weeks as they thought brexit would mean a lack of toilet rolls.

A mere 225 rolls. Make a fleet of space rockets out of those though.


----------



## nickyboy (9 Mar 2020)

All this soap washing is playing havoc with my skin. I predict panic buying of Nivea soon


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I wouldn't bank on it !
> 
> I don't like Boris Johnson (but given my political views I am probably not going too) - But I can't say he is very confidence inspiring with regards to this - he seems to have dumped it all on Christopher Whitty



Good. I'd rather the Chief Medical Officer led the response to a medical crisis.


----------



## fossyant (9 Mar 2020)

Petrol was cheap this morning - 116p


----------



## marinyork (9 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Good. I'd rather the Chief Medical Officer led the response to a medical crisis.



In Italy the plans leaked out to the media hours ahead of the quarantine (and many more hours here before things were written up properly). This led to the ban being very largely flouted on Saturday night and even Sunday.

The same will happen here.


----------



## fossyant (9 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> All this soap washing is playing havoc with my skin. I predict panic buying of Nivea soon









For the Dr Who fans.


----------



## MarkF (9 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Little paper masks will do little to protect the user from airborne particulate but will do two things: reduce potential to hand to mouth transfer and restrict spread from an already infected user.



They are extremely irritating and thus encourage you to touch your face.


----------



## marinyork (9 Mar 2020)

It is now starting to be speculated on italian news if the whole of Italy will be quarantined.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (9 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> In Italy the plans leaked out to the media hours ahead of the quarantine (and many more hours here before things were written up properly). This led to the ban being very largely flouted on Saturday night and even Sunday.
> 
> The same will happen here.


The UK government plan appears to be singing happy birthday while washing their hands. It sounds like the Italians have a more comprehensive approach.


----------



## kingrollo (9 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Good. I'd rather the Chief Medical Officer led the response to a medical crisis.


Touche !

I wasn't point scoring - just seems like Johnson is floundering imo


----------



## marinyork (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Touche !
> 
> I wasn't point scoring - just seems like Johnson is floundering imo



Another meeting on Wednesday.


----------



## MichaelO (9 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> It is now starting to be speculated on italian news if the whole of Italy will be quarantined.


Really? Where?


----------



## marinyork (9 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> Really? Where?



Canale5.


----------



## Rusty Nails (9 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> On average, one thousand four hundred people die of something every day in the UK, day in, day out. You will too.


On average 1.5 million people write irrelevant rubbish on the internet every day. You will too.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (9 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Canale5.



Is it just the usual Italian media practice of cranking things up even further or is there evidence of this from government sources?


----------



## Beebo (9 Mar 2020)

An Italian doctor was on the radio explaining that they are already selecting patients for treatment. 

The elderly and ill are being overlooked for the younger patients with more chance of surviving. 

I’m sure the same will happen here if the worst happens.


----------



## Mo1959 (9 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> An Italian doctor was on the radio explaining that they are already selecting patients for treatment.
> 
> The elderly and ill are being overlooked for the younger patients with more chance of surviving.
> 
> I’m sure the same will happen here if the worst happens.


Think of the savings on pensions they won’t have to pay out, or am I just being cynical.


----------



## Pale Rider (9 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Think of the savings on pensions they won’t have to pay out, or am I just being cynical.



Short term though, because the coffin dodger might not claim his pension for much longer anyway.

Keep a young person going and they could claim their pension for years.


----------



## Julia9054 (9 Mar 2020)

A quick look on skyscanner shows me that you can still purchase return flights to Italian cities supposedly on lock down. Why is that?


----------



## MichaelO (9 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> A quick look on skyscanner shows me that you can still purchase return flights to Italian cities supposedly on lock down. Why is that?


Because the "lock down" only applies to locals. Foreigners can fly in & out, and Italians from other parts of Italy can leave the area.


----------



## postman (9 Mar 2020)

It's a conspiracy they are going to cancel all large events.Stop football.Liverpool will not be champions and Leeds will not win the championship.They will do owt to keep Leeds down Doomed i tell ya doomed to stay in the championship forever aye.


----------



## Rusty Nails (9 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Think of the savings on pensions they won’t have to pay out, or am I just being cynical.



Not for coronavirus yet, but it already happens in our NHS.

I doubt that it has anything to do with saving pensions payments, more a way of rationing scarce medical resources to where there is more chance of successful treatment.


----------



## marinyork (9 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Is it just the usual Italian media practice of cranking things up even further or is there evidence of this from government sources?



Depends. It was like this on Saturday afternoon, although it hasn't spread like mad so maybe it is more the speculative end.

Or it could just reflect that the ban has been very widely flouted. 

BA has just suspended services to several Italian airports.


----------



## MichaelO (9 Mar 2020)

319 UK cases as of today


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> 319 UK cases as of today



That's out of those who've been tested. If you have the symptoms but haven't been to non UK affected areas or knowingly been in contact with someone who has, then they are not interested in testing you.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (9 Mar 2020)

A colleague is self-isolating after returning from Thailand with a sore throat. Gets tested tomorrow


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> A colleague is self-isolating after returning from Thailand with a sore throat. Gets tested tomorrow



Got to be careful with o*al s*x


----------



## kingrollo (9 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> That's out of those who've been tested. If you have the symptoms but haven't been to non UK affected areas or knowingly been in contact with someone who has, then they are not interested in testing you.



Yup - thats another reason why italys stats are so high - I believe there testing is symptom driven.
I did here that we were to switch to symptom testing this week - but believe this isn't happening now (or not this week)


----------



## Archie_tect (9 Mar 2020)

Friend's comment which I've pinched...

Scientists say, "you should be sure to wash your hands thoroughly because of Coronavirus" 
People, "I'm going to stop flying, hoard masks and toilet rolls, work from home and completely change my life."

Scientists say, "The climate change crisis will kill millions - we must use clean power and change how we get to work"
People, "No way, sod off!"


----------



## Blue Hills (9 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Canale5.


The dreaded canale cinque?
Always avoided the berlusconi monstrosity when in italy.
Guaranteed to bring anyone out in a rash.


----------



## Blue Hills (9 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Is it just the usual Italian media practice of cranking things up even further or is there evidence of this from government sources?


Italian media went bonkers when there was flu)bird swine or whatever in the uk a few yearsvago. An italian visitor to me in london was bombarded with lots of texts every day from family members saying COME BACK NOW. Later i was in italy and one of the more measured members of the family told me that there was a theory going round that the alarm about foreign travel from berlusconi and other channels had been a ploy to get italians to spend their money at home during the peak summer holiday period. Italy is the home of conspiracy theories.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (9 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Italy is the home of conspiracy theories




I know but I still love the place.


----------



## Blue Hills (9 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I was wondering about that too, and also if it could be like seasonal flu and come back another year as a different strain.


Not aware anyone answered me or you @Mo1959 
So, if you have already had the thing (and of course you could have had it and not been aware/sailed through) does this mean that you can no longer get it or pass it on?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Not aware anyone answered me or you @Mo1959
> So, if you have already had the thing (and of course you could have had it and not been aware/sailed through) does this mean that you can no longer get it or pass it on?



As I understand this, it is too early to know.

But the probability is that once you've had it you will not get it again, and will not continue to be infectious. You will likely be immune to the current strain in future, but the level of your immunity to future strains as the virus evolves will be somewhat lower - exactly how much lower is impossible to say.

Just my understanding, open to correction.


----------



## tom73 (9 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> At the building where my daughter works, security staff won't let you beyond reception until they've tested your temperature and it shows normal. Sure hope they're not using rectal thermometers.


How do they know ? Who trained them? What plans are place to manage the equipment ? I take it no-one knows ? Temp checks are not reliable and can lead to too many false positives. Just what the NHS need's at the time. I have to say I would politely tell them get off and walk out the door.

I was reading a story today of a company that have timers and make staff wash hands every 30 mins. Again I'd tell them to stuff it. It's not based on sound clinical evidence.


----------



## tom73 (9 Mar 2020)

Do I have a hearing problem when the CMO , CSO or the government say "wash your hands" I'm not hearing go out and panic buy bog roll, pasta, beans. Soap, hand gel and anything else even if I don't like it what ever you do just panic?


----------



## kingrollo (9 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> How do they know ? Who trained them? What plans are place to manage the equipment ? I take it no-one knows ? Temp checks are not reliable and can lead to too many false positives. Just what the NHS need's at the time. I have to say I would politely tell them get off and walk out the door.
> 
> I was reading a story today of a company that have timers and make staff wash hands every 30 mins. Again I'd tell them to stuff it. It's not based on sound clinical evidence.


What is the sound clinical evidence though ?

Wash your hands and sing happy birthday ?

I can't help thinking the UK approach is like this is some sort of a storm that will pass through quickly - and barring a rough couple of weeks we should be mostly ok.

Yet look at the measures china had to take and Italy is now being forced to take.....

I can't say the "bring it on" approach inspires me with much confidence. I think BJ may as well tell us all to buy lucky horseshoes !


----------



## kingrollo (9 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Do I have a hearing problem when the CMO , CSO or the government say "wash your hands" I'm not hearing go out and panic buy bog roll, pasta, beans. Soap, hand gel and anything else even if I don't like it what ever you do just panic?


I think one policitan unprompted said "we have enough toilet rolls"
Trust in politicians is so low that everyone interpreted this as "feckin hell there's a bog roll shortage".....


----------



## tom73 (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What is the sound clinical evidence though ?
> 
> Wash your hands and sing happy birthday ?
> 
> ...



Sound clinical eveince is based on sound evidence and research. Not blind panic every county will have to do things differently based on a number of things population make up, movements within it, social interaction trends ect. Plus what planning and systems are in place to deal with stuff like this. The Uk is well prepared for stuff like this planning is always on going. I've been part of it be it at a local level so know how it works and what detail it go's into. 

Hand washing is the best way everyone can on a day to day level keep this thing at bay. It's fact not fiction or a case of the government just fobbing it off. 

Any move on to next stage has to a measured one and timed right or it will make things even worse.


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## tom73 (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think one policitan unprompted said "we have enough toilet rolls"
> Trust in politicians is so low that everyone interpreted this as "feckin hell there's a bog roll shortage".....



Then they are fools.


----------



## kingrollo (9 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sound clinical eveince is based on sound evidence and research. Not blind panic every county will have to do things differently based on a number of things population make up, movements within it, social interaction trends ect. Plus what planning and systems are in place to deal with stuff like this. The Uk is well prepared for stuff like this planning is always on going. I've been part of it be it at a local level so know how it works and what detail it go's into.
> 
> Hand washing is the best way everyone can on a day to day level keep this thing at bay. It's fact not fiction or a case of the government just fobbing it off.
> 
> Any move on to next stage has to a measured one and timed right or it will make things even worse.



If hand washing was the best way of keeping it at bay - why are some countries locking down whole cities ?


----------



## PK99 (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> *
> I can't help thinking the UK approach is like this is some sort of a storm that will pass through quickly - and barring a rough couple of weeks we should be mostly ok.*
> 
> Yet look at the measures china had to take and Italy is now being forced to take.....
> ...



As I understand it, the UK approach is to recognise there will be a major epidemic. Left to it's own devices, that would be a very rapid rise to a very high peak. The strategy is to delay the onset and spread the peak. If you ask people to take major precautions too early ( closing pubs and theatres, cancelling sporting events, gigs and theatre) you could end up with simply a delayed spike as folks would tire of the precautions.

As someone age 64, with long term chest problems and the last 3 years of major chest infections leading to pleural and heart failure issues and a recent sign off letter from consultant to GP giving me direct access to hospital care and a statement "Mr PK cannot afford any more catastrophic chest infections", I recognise that when I get it, I will have a much higher probability of dying than most.

I'm happy with the measured UK strategy.


----------



## tom73 (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If hand washing was the best way of keeping it at bay - why are some countries locking down whole cities ?


Because if it's allowed to get out of hand you have little choice than to lock areas down. Hand washing is the most effective way to slow things down. Which then allow's for a steady and well managed move to the next stage without having to do as some counties have been forced to do. Which is go from minor steps to major ones in a one massive leap.


----------



## tom73 (9 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> As I understand it, the UK approach is to recognise there will be a major epidemic. Left to it's own devices, that would be a very rapid rise to a very high peak. The strategy is to delay the onset and spread the peak. If you ask people to take major precautions too early ( closing pubs and theatres, cancelling sporting events, gigs and theatre) you could end up with simply a delayed spike as folks would tire of the precautions.
> 
> As someone age 64, with long term chest problems and the last 3 years of major chest infections leading to pleural and heart failure issues and a recent sign off letter from consultant to GP giving me direct access to hospital care and a statement "Mr PK cannot afford any more catastrophic chest infections", I recognise that when I get it, I will have a much higher probability of dying than most.
> 
> I'm happy with the measured UK strategy.



Exactly you can't stop the peak but you can manage it. Artificially delying it just passes it down the down the line and it will just come back even worse than before. Normally at the yearly winter flu period which no-one involved in health care wants.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think one policitan unprompted said "we have enough toilet rolls"
> Trust in politicians is so low that everyone interpreted this as "feckin hell there's a bog roll shortage".....


Once one shop has run out this causes a chain reaction as everyone thinks there must be a shortage and considers what they need for their family to self isolate for two weeks.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Not aware anyone answered me or you @Mo1959
> So, if you have already had the thing (and of course you could have had it and not been aware/sailed through) does this mean that you can no longer get it or pass it on?



Doesn‘t mean you can’t get it again but your immune system will immediately recognise it and contain it before it causes symptoms. So second time round symptoms range much less severe to nothing to see here.


----------



## Mo1959 (9 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Doesn‘t mean you can’t get it again but your immune system will immediately recognise it and contain it before it causes symptoms. So second time round symptoms range much less severe to nothing to see here.


Let’s hope it doesn’t end up like seasonal flu and come back next year as a different strain and we start all over again.


----------



## Slick (9 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Not aware anyone answered me or you @Mo1959
> So, if you have already had the thing (and of course you could have had it and not been aware/sailed through) does this mean that you can no longer get it or pass it on?


I listened to a scientist explaining that it all depends on how fast it mutates which currently is 6 weeks, which obviously means you would only be safe for that time.


----------



## Grant Fondo (9 Mar 2020)

My swine flu last year only lasted one weeereeek!


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Let’s hope it doesn’t end up like seasonal flu and come back next year as a different strain and we start all over again.



Depends on whether the mutation changes the shape of the proteins it encodes once inside a cell. It’s the protein expression, copies of bits a cell will put on the surface that the immune system recognises as foreign and sets to kill. There’s other immune functions to intercept before it gets inside your cells as well.


----------



## nickyboy (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If hand washing was the best way of keeping it at bay - why are some countries locking down whole cities ?



Really only China and Italy have followed this strategy thus far so it's worth trying to understand what differentiates them from every other country (except Iran which should have locked down cities but didn't)

Both China and Italy had the virus circulating for a significant period before anyone realised what was going on. They have massive local transmission in a particular area before they could get testing to track contacts. Once this happens, apparently you're screwed and you have little choice but to isolate the worst effected areas from everywhere else

Nowhere else is like this (except perhaps USA but until they start mass testing they don't know). If you look at the spread of cases in UK there are no major hotspots. So for now it sounds like slowing the spread by good hygiene etc is the best approach. If there is a big flare up in some town or city I guess they would lock it down but that seems not to be the case....for now


----------



## postman (9 Mar 2020)

It seems Liverpool's celebration parade is in jeopardy,.So now 250,000 people travelling to the Middle East.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (9 Mar 2020)

postman said:


> It seems Liverpool's celebration parade is in jeopardy,.So now 250,000 people travelling to the Middle East.



All St Patrick’s Day parades have been cancelled in the Republic of Ireland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51806551


----------



## Wobblers (9 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Let’s hope it doesn’t end up like seasonal flu and come back next year as a different strain and we start all over again.



It's unlikely. Flu isn't very good at making copies of its genetic material, so lots of errors creep in. It's these errors that cause mutations and hence different strains for the next flu season. Coronaviruses on the other hand have an extra stage where errors are filtered out (I presume Covid-19 is similar to the other coronavirae in this aspect) hence is much less likely to mutate. Its genome is considered to be stable. 



Slick said:


> I listened to a scientist explaining that it all depends on how fast it mutates which currently is 6 weeks, which obviously means you would only be safe for that time.



?! That seems a bit far fetched, to be honest. If that were the case, there would already be 3 or 4 different strains circulating in China, and we'd have seen 3 or 4 different spikes in the infection rate. It's also an extraordinarily high mutation rate for a virus, one that I don't think has ever been observed (with the possible exception of HIV).


----------



## Shut Up Legs (9 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Wonder what happens if you arrive in a sweaty heap as you've just run or cycled to work ?


If you're fit enough, your temperature should drop back to normal quickly enough, so you'd just have to wait a little while before heading into the building.


----------



## Milzy (9 Mar 2020)

I have a feeling it will burn out in a year then maybe disappear for a decade then break out again.


----------



## MichaelW2 (9 Mar 2020)

The latest flare up in Hanoi has affected a British couple who caught the virus from a Vietnamese socialite who had been touring around Italy during Feb. She suffered a cough and mild fever but still chose to fly without telling the truth about where she had been or how she felt. 
It is self important lying dimwits like this that makes fighting an outbreak of transmissible virus all but impossible.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (9 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> and Italians from other parts of Italy can leave the area.


Actually, no, they shouldn't, nobody should leave the infected areas.
Those who have left in spite of the ban (there obviously are no patrolled borders) are required to register on arrival to the non affected zones.
There is currently strong disapproval towards folks that have left the red zone.

Today in Rutherglen (South Lanarkshire), the local shopping centre was out of toilet paper, hand sanitizer has been unavailable since last week.
And yet, I have been sneezed at, coughed at, had a woman coming up to the counter with a runny nose, no attempt to stop themselves spreading whatever they have got ... meh!


----------



## marinyork (9 Mar 2020)

The quarantine is actually being extended to the entire country of Italy.


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## Pat "5mph" (9 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The quarantine is actually being extended to the entire country of Italy.


Did you just read this @marinyork?
Where abouts?


----------



## fossyant (9 Mar 2020)

Whole of Italy - been on BBC News 107 Freeview


----------



## glasgowcyclist (9 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Did you just read this @marinyork?
> Where abouts?



Here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51810673


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## Pat "5mph" (9 Mar 2020)

Cheers @glasgowcyclist, I just found it on the Italian news.


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## Blue Hills (9 Mar 2020)

Other reports on the beeb suggest that the italian lockdown isn't exactly being rigorously policed. Not sure i understand how it can be, despite italy's several police forces. 

Meanwhile in the states, things are surely going to get blackly farcical.
Trump making spectacularly less sense than usual.
And the basic failings of the us health system are surely going to be exposed to global alarm and mockery.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> I have a feeling it will burn out in a year then maybe disappear for a decade then break out again.



Thanks Milzy.

Your "feeling" is far more useful a guide than the opinions of epidemiologists, virologists, public health professionals, or the content of scientific journals. 

Much appreciated.


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## Beebo (9 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Other reports on the beeb suggest that the italian lockdown isn't exactly being rigorously policed. Not sure i understand how it can be, despite italy's several police forces.
> 
> Meanwhile in the states, things are surely going to get blackly farcical.
> Trump making spectacularly less sense than usual.
> And the basic failings of the us health system are surely going to be exposed to global alarm and mockery.


I agree. The US with no national health service is going to be exposed. 
Where’s the testing and coordination going to come from. We don’t realise how good the NHS is, and it’s free. Hopefully this will scupper and talk of privatisation. How would a privatised health service manage this?


----------



## stowie (9 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The quarantine is actually being extended to the entire country of Italy.



When you mentioned this earlier today, I thought it wouldn't possibly happen. Now it has. Wow.

I know this is the least of all concerns, but myself and my wife have said for over 10 years that we should visit Rome. We finally got around to booking the plane tickets last December. For mid-April.....


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> I agree. The US with no national health service is going to be exposed.
> Where’s the testing and coordination going to come from. We don’t realise how good the NHS is, and it’s free. Hopefully this will scupper and talk of privatisation. How would a privatised health service manage this?



Yeah. Thank fark we've got 40 new hospitals and £350 million a week to spaff on sorting this virus out. Cheers Bozza!


----------



## stowie (9 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> I agree. The US with no national health service is going to be exposed.
> Where’s the testing and coordination going to come from. We don’t realise how good the NHS is, and it’s free. Hopefully this will scupper and talk of privatisation. How would a privatised health service manage this?



My brother (who is in the pharma industry) said that testing without medical insurance cost $800+. People without insurance are probably the people most likely not to be able to afford such costly tests. In a normal presidency, I would assume the US government would effectively nationalise the service by pumping $$$ into free testing. But Trump appears to have gone even more batshit crazy than normal and seems to be oscillating between it all being a fake news conspiracy theory and being paranoid that journalists are trying to infect him with it.


----------



## Mugshot (9 Mar 2020)

Has this been posted yet? It'll help anyone that's struggling with the hand washing stuff. 

https://washyourlyrics.com/


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## icowden (9 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> But Trump appears to have gone even more batshit crazy than normal and seems to be oscillating between it all being a fake news conspiracy theory and being paranoid that journalists are trying to infect him with it.



The bad news that one of the higest risk groups for Covid19 is elderly men. The good news is that Trump is 73...


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## postman (9 Mar 2020)

Right then that's subways hearty Italian bread off my sandwich list.a bit of mundane news.I am using my pad while I lay in bed.how about that then.


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## kingrollo (9 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> I agree. The US with no national health service is going to be exposed.
> Where’s the testing and coordination going to come from. We don’t realise how good the NHS is, and it’s free. Hopefully this will scupper and talk of privatisation. How would a privatised health service manage this?



More cheaply and with a lower survival rate.

None of the above will cause a die hard Tory to flinch at selling off sections of the NHS.


----------



## slowmotion (9 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> More cheaply and with a lower survival rate.
> 
> None of the above will cause a die hard Tory to flinch at selling off sections of the NHS.


I don't think anybody expected COVID-19 to mutate so quickly into virulent rants about The Nasty Party.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (9 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> *Hand washing is the most effective way to slow things down. Which then allow's for a steady and well managed move to the next stage without having to do as some counties have been forced to do. Which is go from minor steps to major ones in a one massive leap.*



How is washing hands while singing Happy Birthday going to help Pat below?



Pat "5mph" said:


> Today in Rutherglen (South Lanarkshire), the local shopping centre was out of toilet paper, hand sanitizer has been unavailable since last week.
> And yet, *I have been sneezed at, coughed at, had a woman coming up to the counter with a runny nose, no attempt to stop themselves spreading whatever they have got* ... meh!



Or all the crowds everywhere, in schools, offices, shops, trains, buses, hospitals... People are within 3 feet of each other all the time, none wearing any PPE.

The number infected in UK is already increasing exponentially, I am happy to stick my neck out and predict we will hit a thousand IDENTIFIED before this time next week, with the actual number a lot higher - not least because symptoms only appear 5 to 6 days after catching it. For example, the rapid exponential growth only slowed down 10 days after lockdown at Daegu. Without social distancing, we will be where Italy is today in around two weeks.


----------



## Blue Hills (10 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> My brother (who is in the pharma industry) said that testing without medical insurance cost $800+. People without insurance are probably the people most likely not to be able to afford such costly tests.


Yes, as a bod said on the bbc (a us person i think) the virus doesn't choose between folk with and without insurance.
I trust the US insured will feel suitably secure surrounded by their fellow citizens with and without insurance.
But let's look forward at least to an increasingly mad-dog trump.


----------



## Levo-Lon (10 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I don't think anybody expected COVID-19 to mutate so quickly into virulent rants about The Nasty Party.




Indeed, only yesterday waank McDonell said don't let spending be cancelled due to covid-19... consistent as usual


----------



## tom73 (10 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> How is washing hands while singing Happy Birthday going to help Pat below?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Read what I and others have said go into lock down early and all we do is kick the can down the road.Locking everyone away for weeks is will not make this go away like magic. For part of today I'm over seeing a mock exam. For 2 hours I'm in room with over 200 Students. Will I be wearing gloves , apron and mask ? ... No PPE for most is just a waste of time again many on here have tried to explain why. Will I be washing my hands before, after and before food.....Yes during the exam will I be using the hand gel .... Yes. Will I be coughing all over the place... No. Will I stand in the corner in fear of everyone ... No. I'd have to stand next to ever student or staff member a 15 mins minimum. To risk anything. 

We can either listen to advice or carry on and panic buy bog roll. A measured approach is all the only way to deal with this. How some of this county would cope if they had to deal with infectious conditions as part of a day job god knows.


----------



## Fab Foodie (10 Mar 2020)




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## Rocky (10 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> View attachment 507805


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## kingrollo (10 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Read what I and others have said go into lock down early and all we do is kick the can down the road.Locking everyone away for weeks is will not make this go away like magic. For part of today I'm over seeing a mock exam. For 2 hours I'm in room with over 200 Students. Will I be wearing gloves , apron and mask ? ... No PPE for most is just a waste of time again many on here have tried to explain why. Will I be washing my hands before, after and before food.....Yes during the exam will I be using the hand gel .... Yes. Will I be coughing all over the place... No. Will I stand in the corner in fear of everyone ... No. I'd have to stand next to ever student or staff member a 15 mins minimum. To risk anything.
> 
> We can either listen to advice or carry on and panic buy bog roll. A measured approach is all the only way to deal with this. How some of this county would cope if they had to deal with infectious conditions as part of a day job god knows.



China seem to have had some success with the lock down. I wonder what would have happened if they had done it earlier?

Lets hope the lock down in Italy does work.

Personally I would have thought doing the lock down earlier would be better than waiting until things got really bad.


----------



## vickster (10 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> China seem to have had some success with the lock down. I wonder what would have happened if they had done it earlier?
> 
> Lets hope the lock down in Italy does work.
> 
> Personally I would have thought doing the lock down earlier would be better than waiting until things got really bad.


Are you staying home now?


----------



## Dave7 (10 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> When you mentioned this earlier today, I thought it wouldn't possibly happen. Now it has. Wow.
> 
> I know this is the least of all concerns, but myself and my wife have said for over 10 years that we should visit Rome. We finally got around to booking the plane tickets last December. For mid-April.....


Our SiLs family (not him) are there now. Why thy hell they went knowing it was going to hit the fan is beyond me.
If its on lock down does that mean they (and other holiday makers) are stuck there??
EDIT.... I HAVE JUST READ THIS ARTICLE.
Those who have to leave their region or their cities out of serious necessity can do so only if they have self-certification stating that they must cross the borders for compelling business reasons, health reasons, or because they have to return home.


----------



## kingrollo (10 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Are you staying home now?



No - I have to work.


----------



## derrick (10 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I don't think anybody expected COVID-19 to mutate so quickly into virulent rants about The Nasty Party.


I was suprised it did not start sooner


----------



## nickyboy (10 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> China seem to have had some success with the lock down. I wonder what would have happened if they had done it earlier?
> 
> Lets hope the lock down in Italy does work.
> 
> Personally I would have thought doing the lock down earlier would be better than waiting until things got really bad.


Help me to understand your position. You want to lock down the whole of the UK now. Is that right?
There is no hotspot in UK so partial lockdown (like Daegu in SK or Hubei in PRC) isn't of any use.
The science suggests that full lockdown isn't the right approach given where UK is in the epidemic cycle. Too much negative and not enough positive. That may change of course. I hope all the lessons learned in SK (which seems to have prevented an Italy situation) can be replicated here


----------



## marinyork (10 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> China seem to have had some success with the lock down. I wonder





nickyboy said:


> Help me to understand your position. You want to lock down the whole of the UK now. Is that right?
> There is no hotspot in UK so partial lockdown (like Daegu in SK or Hubei in PRC) isn't of any use.
> The science suggests that full lockdown isn't the right approach given where UK is in the epidemic cycle. Too much negative and not enough positive. That may change of course. I hope all the lessons learned in SK (which seems to have prevented an Italy situation) can be replicated here



The deputy chief medical officer has been on tv this morning and many here will have seen it.

That is going to puzzle a lot of people as they said many thousands will be infected in due course. No new measures is how people will see it. Except they also said these will be announced. When?


----------



## kingrollo (10 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Help me to understand your position. You want to lock down the whole of the UK now. Is that right?
> There is no hotspot in UK so partial lockdown (like Daegu in SK or Hubei in PRC) isn't of any use.
> The science suggests that full lockdown isn't the right approach given where UK is in the epidemic cycle. Too much negative and not enough positive. That may change of course. I hope all the lessons learned in SK (which seems to have prevented an Italy situation) can be replicated here


My position is (and I fully accept I am not an expert) - that China seems to be coming out of the worst by implementing a lockdown. I expect UK cases to be close on 1000 by the weekend - and will pretty quickly ratchet up to 20,000 

One people start dying in 100's - I believe we will have to implement a lock down. Would it not be better to do that earlier ? - If not would it be better to move in that direction sooner 

Where is the science suggesting an early lockdown isn't appropriate ? - WHO seem to think think countries should do it earlier ?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> China seem to have had some success with the lock down. I wonder what would have happened if they had done it earlier?
> 
> Lets hope the lock down in Italy does work.
> 
> Personally I would have thought doing the lock down earlier would be better than waiting until things got really bad.



Problem is, what happens when you stop the lockdown? 

2nd wave, lock down again?

British position seems tho be to let it run through the population, albeit at a slowed down rate. Once sufficient people have been exposed there's herd immunity. 

At least that's my interpretation of our govt position.


----------



## kingrollo (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Problem is, what happens when you stop the lockdown?
> 
> 2nd wave, lock down again?
> 
> ...



My interpretation is that at some stage we will do a lockdown - But we are waiting for things to get worse before doing such a lockdown. 2nd wave will still be a concern whenever we do the lockdown.


----------



## alicat (10 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Where is the science suggesting an early lockdown isn't appropriate ? - WHO seem to think think countries should do it earlier ?



The science would suggest that we do a lockdown asap. The Government is waiting until public opinion is ready to accept it. That makes sense - if we do it too early then people just get fed up and break it and then when it becomes an epidemic nobody heeds it. Oh and the economy tanks.


----------



## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

A colleague opposite me just said her husband had literally arrived in Italy to go Skiing on Saturday (not in a 'hotspot' as of Saturday). He's not been allowed to Ski, and is being sent home tomorrow. Two weeks isolation, and she is checking with HR if she will have to work from home/isolate as well.


----------



## HMS_Dave (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Problem is, what happens when you stop the lockdown?
> 
> 2nd wave, lock down again?
> 
> ...


I read that it is likely now to be a seasonal thing at winter, like Rotavirus, Norovirus, Influenza etc but as the virus mutates they tend to get weaker and they'll be more chance of a vaccine by next winter. Which is great because down in this bunker i have built in my garden with 16 years worth of Toilet Paper and Anti-viral soap i completely forgot food and wearing this pickelhaube is pretty uncomfortable to be honest but im reliably informed it repels virus's, or was it people?


----------



## MichaelO (10 Mar 2020)

Are the UK numbers (and probably other countries) lower than Italy's due to the testing protocol differences? In the UK you can only get a test if you have symptoms AND have been to a specific country (or in contact with someone who has been), whereas Italy are testing everyone with symptoms. Does that mean the UK is potentially hugely under-reporting?


----------



## kingrollo (10 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> Are the UK numbers (and probably other countries) lower than Italy's due to the testing protocol differences? In the UK you can only get a test if you have symptoms AND have been to a specific country (or in contact with someone who has been), whereas Italy are testing everyone with symptoms. Does that mean the UK is potentially hugely under-reporting?



Yes


----------



## nickyboy (10 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> My position is (and I fully accept I am not an expert) - that China seems to be coming out of the worst by implementing a lockdown. I expect UK cases to be close on 1000 by the weekend - and will pretty quickly ratchet up to 20,000
> 
> One people start dying in 100's - I believe we will have to implement a lock down. Would it not be better to do that earlier ? - If not would it be better to move in that direction sooner
> 
> Where is the science suggesting an early lockdown isn't appropriate ? - WHO seem to think think countries should do it earlier ?


It's interesting that countries further along the curve such as Germany, France and Spain either haven't implemented any lockdown or if they have it's very targeted on a small hotspot

They must be going through the same assessment process as UK and coming to the same conclusion, even thought they are a couple of weeks advanced on us. 

I'm not an epidemiologist so can't provide any insights. But it's interesting that only Italy has taken this approach. Maybe all the German, French, Spanish and UK experts and politicians are right?

For sure if the UK is wrong, Germany, Spain and France must be doubly wrong


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## HMS_Dave (10 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> Are the UK numbers (and probably other countries) lower than Italy's due to the testing protocol differences? In the UK you can only get a test if you have symptoms AND have been to a specific country (or in contact with someone who has been), whereas Italy are testing everyone with symptoms. Does that mean the UK is potentially hugely under-reporting?


I think I'm right in saying that Germany have approximately 4 times the cases than here in the UK and have 0 fatalities. That seems more bizarre to me...


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## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

Hmm not sure if the NHS advice is particularly great. Colleague's husband should self isolate for two weeks, but she should carry on coming to work, until/if she shows signs of symptoms - I'd assume it's a bit late by the time symptoms start showing.


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## HMS_Dave (10 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Hmm not sure if the NHS advice is particularly great. Colleague's husband should self isolate for two weeks, but she should carry on coming to work, until/if she shows signs of symptoms - I'd assume it's a bit late by the time symptoms start showing.


Far too late. The incubation period has well and truly passed...


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## MichaelO (10 Mar 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> I think I'm right in saying that Germany have approximately 4 times the cases than here in the UK and have 0 fatalities. That seems more bizarre to me...


They have had a couple of deaths, and 9 in serious critical condition 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


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## HMS_Dave (10 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> They have had a couple of deaths, and 9 in serious critical condition
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Ahh quite recent then. But when you look at the broad picture of western cases to deaths ratio, Germany does seem to buck the trend...


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## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> Far too late. The incubation period has well and truly passed...



That's my colleagues feeling ! If NHS have said that, work will expect her in . It's coming.


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## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

I'm not overly sure the 'sniffles and coughs' stay at home idea is good - most of the folk in the office have sniffles or coughs. My wife is still coughing from the last infection in February, and I still have sniffles. There will be no-one in the office. If my colleague has to come in, I better make sure I don't go near MIL/my parents.


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## Ming the Merciless (10 Mar 2020)

Sobering reading.

https://apple.news/A99rkv7e1QGqJ5MHpKqHUdg


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## Dave7 (10 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> A colleague opposite me just said her husband had literally arrived in Italy to go Skiing on Saturday (not in a 'hotspot' as of Saturday). He's not been allowed to Ski, and is being sent home tomorrow. Two weeks isolation, and she is checking with HR if she will have to work from home/isolate as well.


I would be interested to know.......
Who is making him come back ie italian govt, etc ??
Will his insurance cover him?


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## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> I would be interested to know.......
> Who is making him come back ie italian govt, etc ??
> Will his insurance cover him?



Been on phone to his Mrs this am whilst she is here in work. Hasn't been allowed on the slopes and will literally be sent home tomorrow - I assume his travel company will be doing it. I'd also assume he will have to claim off insurance for the lost trip. I'd find the nearest 'pub'.


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## stowie (10 Mar 2020)

I watched Newsnight last night who had managed to get an interview with the leading virologist and epidemiologist Nigel Farage. It good to see that serious news programmes are listening to the experts.

Does anyone know if one of the symptons of COVID-19 is a weird pandering to right-wing populists?

PS : The only upside to Newsight interviewing Farage is seeing him berate Johnson for inaction only to squirm around when asked exactly the same questions about Trump and his batshit utterances.

Farage is a master of working himself into the narrative. During the interview he said if there was a lot of cases in the UK traced back to returnees from N Italy there would be hell to pay. Meaning that if there were he would look all smug whilst replaying the interview over and over again, but if there wasn't no-one would remember what he said.


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## roubaixtuesday (10 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> I watched Newsnight last night who had managed to get an interview with the leading virologist and epidemiologist Nigel Farage. It good to see that serious news programmes are listening to the experts.
> 
> Does anyone know if one of the symptons of COVID-19 is a weird pandering to right-wing populists?
> 
> ...



What conceivable reason was there for interviewing him on coronavirus? Seems bizarre.


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## marinyork (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What conceivable reason was there for interviewing him on coronavirus? Seems bizarre.



If there had been a coronavirus lockdown in a pub that would have made more sense. Well less sense as he would have been drinking a lot. More entertaining.


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## stowie (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What conceivable reason was there for interviewing him on coronavirus? Seems bizarre.



Parliamentary parties are generally not lambasting the government because we are in the midst of a national crisis and typically that means the opposition will not be unquestioning but will temper criticism. So Newsnight were clearly casting around for the "opposition view" and Farage hoves into view as someone who is never afraid to give controversial opinions on things he has no idea about.


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## RecordAceFromNew (10 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Read what I and others have said go into lock down early and all we do is kick the can down the road.Locking everyone away for weeks is will not make this go away like magic. For part of today I'm over seeing a mock exam. For 2 hours I'm in room with over 200 Students. Will I be wearing gloves , apron and mask ? ... No PPE for most is just a waste of time again many on here have tried to explain why. Will I be washing my hands before, after and before food.....Yes during the exam will I be using the hand gel .... Yes. Will I be coughing all over the place... No. Will I stand in the corner in fear of everyone ... No. I'd have to stand next to ever student or staff member a 15 mins minimum. To risk anything.



It is charming that you follow Boris' guideline without question, but are you aware that you are acting against WHO guideline, which clearly says people should practice social distancing at all stages (see page 2, and links thereof) because of the virus.

I don't know if "lockdown" has a single definition , but social distancing can range from draconian to laissez faire to some sensible compromise in between, but the objective is to minimise interpersonal transmission to keep more people alive, by avoiding non-essential contacts where possible, so that the number of infected does not overwhelm the healthcare system, like what has already happened in Italy, undoubtedly what is happening in Iran, and what happened in Wuhan initially.

Take a moment to think about it, and ask yourself these questions:
1) Is washing hands while singing Happy Birthday going to stop the exponential growth of infected?
2) If the answer to 1) is no, is it not just a matter of time (actually days) the number of infected will hit thousand(s) without social distancing?
3) Isn't it blindingly obvious that more lives will be saved, and indeed quicker for a higher degree of normality to return, and hence less economic/social downside, when the number of infected can be much lower, preferably in low hundreds e.g., rather than thousands? 
4) Given fewer infected means less negatives on all counts, why delay social distancing? It is not as if letting the number of infected grow untempered is a real choice, is it?

If you disagree, please explain why not telling schools to close, telling people to work from home where possible, or banning all mass sporting/leisure gatherings etc.?

In other words, why letting the problem mushroom, causing the inevitable firefighting in the NHS is your preference? How would letting the problem magnify exponentially make recovery quicker and causing less economic damage to all concerned?

In Hongkong and Macau, they practised social distancing as stated above since late January. They have managed to control the number of infected to c120 for a highly densely populated place of 8 millions, without ever overwhelming either tracking efforts or the healthcare system, and only 3 died.

The thing to remember, is even if new infection can be stopped completely today, the number of infected identified will continue to grow exponentially for about a week (because it takes time for symptoms to appear and hence detected) - i.e. in practice we have hit c1000 already. What exactly are we waiting for?


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## nickyboy (10 Mar 2020)

For info the only social distancing enacted in HK was to close schools and stop large scale public gatherings. There were and are no limitations on public transport, restaurants, museums, shops etc etc etc
HK has a population who knows the drill. They are voluntarily staying at home. That, along with hand washing, is what has limited the virus' spread. 
Chatting to friends in HK I was amazed the MTR wasn't closed. They explained that it was really quiet anyway as people stayed at home voluntarily
So by the same token we could close schools and ban large public gatherings (I suspect we are getting close to these now). Beyond that we could stop it in its tracks like HK has done by voluntarily applying social distancing and washing our hands. Whether the UK population is willing to do that is another matter


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## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

We've just moved from checking your laptop's VPN is working, to take your laptops home each night, just in case the Uni has to close. Time to make some space on the conservatory table (covered in Mrs F's sewing projects at present).


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## tom73 (10 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> It is charming that you follow Boris' guideline without question, but are you aware that you are acting against WHO guideline, which clearly says people should practice social distancing at all stages (see page 2, and links thereof) because of the virus.
> 
> I don't know if "lockdown" has a single definition , but social distancing can range from draconian to laissez faire to some sensible compromise in between, but the objective is to minimise interpersonal transmission to keep more people alive, by avoiding non-essential contacts where possible, so that the number of infected does not overwhelm the healthcare system, like what has already happened in Italy, undoubtedly what is happening in Iran, and what happened in Wuhan initially.
> 
> ...



I don't follow Boris without question but I' more than able to use information that's sound and fact. PHE , CMO and others are not the government or in the pocket of Boris. But are skilled HCP's who know what needs to be and when to do it. 
To make an informed measured approach. I'm not an expert but am not without knowledge and skills of infection control either. 
If I got in a panic every time MRS 73 has nursed anyone with highly infectious illness I'd never leave my bed. 

What ever the next steps are and when they take them it has to be based on fact's and effective tracking of the virus spread in this county. 
The NHS and PHE have been highly effective at tracking this together with contact tracing.


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## glasgowcyclist (10 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> So by the same token we could close schools and ban large public gatherings (I suspect we are getting close to these now). Beyond that we could stop it in its tracks like HK has done by voluntarily applying social distancing and washing our hands.



There's a graphic on twitter that illustrates simply the benefits of protective measures to delay the epidemic and thereby reduce peak demand on hospitals >>>


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## MarkF (10 Mar 2020)

At 83, the Daily Mail got her at last. My mum has been self isolating since Saturday, is refusing to go for lunch, has sent me a to-do shopping list and I've got to leave the stuff in her garage because I work at the hospital.

Been told that I probably won't come into contact with any suspected cases, strange as they have no issues putting me confined spaces with worse, or suspected worse virus's, fully armoured with a pinny and gloves.


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## kingrollo (10 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> There's a graphic on twitter that illustrates simply the benefits of protective measures to delay the epidemic and thereby reduce peak demand on hospitals >>>
> 
> View attachment 507823



I think we are going for the red option - Boris hinted there will a rough couple of weeks.


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## kingrollo (10 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> At 83, the Daily Mail got her at last. My mum has been self isolating since Saturday, is refusing to go for lunch, has sent me a to-do shopping list and I've got to leave the stuff in her garage because I work at the hospital.
> 
> Been told that I probably won't come into contact with any suspected cases, strange as they have no issues putting me confined spaced with worse virus's fully armoured with a pinny and gloves.



Define worse viruses ? 

More lethal sure - but harder to transmit 
The fatality rate of coranvirus is estimated at 1% - it has however show it can spread pretty rapidly


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## MarkF (10 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> If I got in a panic every time MRS 73 has nursed anyone with highly infectious illness I'd never leave my bed.



Yes, there are wards where nurses and health care assistants do that as a daily full time job. My heart sinks if I have to go on such a ward once a day.


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## RecordAceFromNew (10 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> For info the only social distancing enacted in HK was to close schools and stop large scale public gatherings. There were and are no limitations on public transport, restaurants, museums, shops etc etc etc
> HK has a population who knows the drill. They are voluntarily staying at home. That, along with hand washing, is what has limited the virus' spread.
> Chatting to friends in HK I was amazed the MTR wasn't closed. They explained that it was really quiet anyway as people stayed at home voluntarily
> So by the same token we could close schools and ban large public gatherings (I suspect we are getting close to these now). Beyond that we could stop it in its tracks like HK has done by voluntarily applying social distancing and washing our hands. Whether the UK population is willing to do that is another matter



I should also add that the HK Government allowed most civil servants to work from home for nearly a month from late January, which set an example, and putting heavy moral pressure on firms with employees who could work from home. I am also pretty sure they did ban games/matches in all public sport stadiums large and small, I happened to be there at the time. 

People there seem conscientious and happy to adopt the measures, I don't know if I would assume Brits won't, since the number will increase rapidly daily to c1000 even if we were to start today. Businesses there, including many public buildings, and I hear the larger restaurants, are testing body temperature (using infrared thermometer gun on the forehead usually) of everybody going in, barring anyone who has a fever, thereby seriously discouraging those with symptoms to carry on their daily business as usual. In public, I hear if you don't wear a mask, you would be looked at like a pariah by everybody - it is considered highly inconsiderate and selfish.

Thing is, it works.

By just telling people to wash their hands, essentially the government is squandering the time and experience made available by those who tried proactively and succeeded in slowing its transmission.


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## GetFatty (10 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> How is washing hands while singing Happy Birthday going to help Pat below?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


With a total of 319 (as of 9am yesterday) I don't think you can say we've got exponential growth yet.


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## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> At 83, the Daily Mail got her at last. My mum has been self isolating since Saturday, is refusing to go for lunch, has sent me a to-do shopping list and I've got to leave the stuff in her garage because I work at the hospital.
> 
> Been told that I probably won't come into contact with any suspected cases, strange as they have no issues putting me confined spaces with worse, or suspected worse virus's, fully armoured with a pinny and gloves.



This is why I'm so glad my MIL is in a Nursing home - it would be a nightmare now if she was at home - she was 'self isolating' to some extent as she couldn't get out'. You'll be doing the shopping run.

Make sure she does one list, and isn't constantly mithering you. MIL would give us a list, then add more when you'd come back with it - she used to do this to her husband when he was alive - no wonder he was exhausted.


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## MichaelO (10 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I should also add that the HK Government allowed most civil servants to work from home for nearly a month from late January, which set an example, and putting heavy moral pressure on firms with employees who could work from home.


It'll be interesting to see what UK employers do with regards to WFH. I know of a few companies (including my wife's) that are starting "shifts" from next week by splitting the workforce in two and having one group WFH for a week while the others are in the office, and then alternative each week. Whereas, my place is currently reluctant to allow WFH at all.


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## kingrollo (10 Mar 2020)

GetFatty said:


> With a total of 319 (as of 9am yesterday) I don't think you can say we've got exponential growth yet.



That doesn't mean a thing - because we are only testing people who have symptoms AND have come from a high risk country or beleive they have been in contact with someone who has.

You ring NHS with a fever - and you won't be tested unless you meet one of those conditions.


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## Joey Shabadoo (10 Mar 2020)

Something that comes up on so many subjects is “Why don’t we do things like the Scandinavians/French/Canadians/Chinese/Golgafrinchans do“, without taking into account the very different cultures involved. From what I’ve read, Chinese people are very society orientated rather than focused on the individual and they’re also generally more accepting of authority. I can’t see Brits doing as they’re told quite so willingly, partly because we viciously attack authority at every opportunity and question everything, particularly if it causes any personal inconvenience. I doubt if a meaningful quarantine could be maintained on a large scale beyond a few days.


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## RecordAceFromNew (10 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> There's a graphic on twitter that illustrates simply the benefits of protective measures to delay the epidemic and thereby reduce peak demand on hospitals >>>
> 
> View attachment 507823



It is interesting you show this, because the graph is somewhat famous, or more accurately notorious, because it is completely misleading. If we think the CDC (i.e. read USA) is credible in fighting the virus, we are doomed, aren't we?

Think about it, in Hubei, sure it was a sharp fast increase (like the red curve), but through their measures they managed to stop the rate of infection at 0.17% infected (i.e. c100,000) of the c60 millions. Tell me, if they did not practice social distancing, would the rate of infection be less than 0.17%, or higher? or a higher % on the whole 1.4 billion population of China?

In other words, is it not blindingly obvious that a proactive response will give you the red curve, while without it will deliver you a curve that is not shown on the graph at all?

To put it simply, the above chart is a joke, because in reality the only available options are: 1) a proactive hit on the spread, which would make it look like the red, while 2) the ONLY other alternative would be "like" the blue, except rising just as fast as the red, but reaching much higher, for longer, and HUNDREDS of times larger - that is what it will look like without proactive measures.

If anyone disagrees, please describe what other alternative scenario and result can possibly exist, and why?


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## GetFatty (10 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> That doesn't mean a thing - because we are only testing people who have symptoms AND have come from a high risk country or beleive they have been in contact with someone who has.
> 
> You ring NHS with a fever - and you won't be tested unless you meet one of those conditions.


That doesn't provide evidence of exponential growth either though. There is an awful lot of panic going on about Covid-19 although Prof Witty is doing his best to keep things calm on factual in the face of media sensationalism. I was closely involved in the swine flu epidemic and have seen this at work before.

Why do you think people are buying toilet rolls? Is it because of a fear we may run out or because people are saying "Everyone's buying toilet rolls" while others are saying "We're in a phase of exponential growth"


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## roubaixtuesday (10 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> It is interesting you show this, because the graph is somewhat famous, or more accurately notorious, because it is completely misleading. If we think the CDC (i.e. read USA) is credible in fighting the virus, we are doomed, aren't we?
> 
> Think about it, in Hubei, sure it was a sharp fast increase (like the red curve), but through their measures they managed to stop the rate of infection at 0.17% infected (i.e. c100,000) of the c60 millions. Tell me, if they did not practice social distancing, would the rate of infection be less than 0.17%, or higher? or a higher % on the whole 1.4 billion population of China?
> 
> ...



The chart assumes that stopping the spread completely is not achievable, so the total infections (area under the curve) is the same whatever.

That assumption depends on transmission rates, duration and severity of restrictions, time to get a vaccine etc.

Until the virus has been eradicated, you can't say what shape the final curve will be. It may well return rapidly as soon as restrictions are lifted, or it may abate in the summer and not return, or it may abate then return in the winter.

The virus has not been eradicated, in China or anywhere else.

All you can say about the China results is that they are very impressive in the short term (if you trust them, of course).


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## MichaelO (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The virus has not been eradicated, in China or anywhere else.


Probably not too far off in China. 60,000 of the 80,000 infected have made a full recovery - "only" 17,000 active cases remain.


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## Dave7 (10 Mar 2020)

Just reading about what they say is "mass cancellations of Majorca cycling holidays".
My May cycling holiday is looking doubtful.
Not the worst thing that could happen to me compared to many poor souls and tbh I am expecting to lose it and possibly the money. Everything in context eh
https://www.majorcadailybulletin.co...ajorcan-hoteliers-devastated-coronavirus.html


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## RecordAceFromNew (10 Mar 2020)

GetFatty said:


> With a total of 319 (as of 9am yesterday) I don't think you can say we've got exponential growth yet.



Really? If you had done the calculations on the numbers here (have you seen the curve in there?), you would have found that the average increase on the previous day, for the last 7 days, is 35.7%. If that is not exponential growth, what is?

IF the rate of increase on the previous day falls to 20% (the figure I have been assuming for the sake of discussion here) from now, it will be over 1000 before this time next week. If the rate of increase falls only to 25%/30%, the figures are 1500/2000 respectively.

You can look at the corresponding figures and graph for Italy here. You can see their daily compound growth remains 25% a day. We are just over two weeks behind them.

As I have said repeatedly, stopping infection today won't stop the exponential growth of the number (hence resource required and human tragedy) for a week or more.


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## twentysix by twentyfive (10 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Just reading about what they say is "mass cancellations of Majorca cycling holidays".
> My May cycling holiday is looking doubtful.
> Not the worst thing that could happen to me compared to many poor souls and tbh I am expecting to lose it and possibly the money. Everything in context eh
> https://www.majorcadailybulletin.co...ajorcan-hoteliers-devastated-coronavirus.html


Just go. Risk there is the same here. Unless there is an official clamp down in which case find a people trafficker. Roads will be quiet 👍


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## MichaelO (10 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Really? If you had done the calculations on the numbers here (have you seen the curve in there?), you would have found that the average increase on the previous day, for the last 7 days, is 35.7%. If that is not exponential growth, what is?


I'd say the Italian cases were "growth" not exponential growth. It has stayed relatively steady at 25% increase per day. Exponential growth would see the % increase being higher each day for a sustained period, surely?

Edit: I could be horribly wrong here....


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## glasgowcyclist (10 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> It is interesting you show this, because the graph is somewhat famous, or more accurately notorious, because it is completely misleading. If we think the CDC (i.e. read USA) is credible in fighting the virus, we are doomed, aren't we?
> 
> Think about it, in Hubei, sure it was a sharp fast increase (like the red curve), but through their measures they managed to stop the rate of infection at 0.17% infected (i.e. c100,000) of the c60 millions. Tell me, if they did not practice social distancing, would the rate of infection be less than 0.17%, or higher? or a higher % on the whole 1.4 billion population of China?
> 
> ...



I read that graph as: red zone = result of no control measures, blue zone = result of control measures. If we want to flatten the peak of infections & fatalities, don't we need to implement protective measures?


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## Rocky (10 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> I'd say the Italian cases were "growth" not exponential growth. It has stayed relatively steady at 25% increase per day. Exponential growth would see the % increase being higher each day for a sustained period, surely?
> 
> Edit: I could be horribly wrong here....


Exponential......starts slowly then grows quickly. I think we are still on the early part of the graph.......


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## MartinQ (10 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> I'd say the Italian cases were "growth" not exponential growth. It has stayed relatively steady at 25% increase per day. Exponential growth would see the % increase being higher each day for a sustained period, surely?
> 
> Edit: I could be horribly wrong here....



Yes, you are .
That is the definition of exponential growth.


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## MichaelO (10 Mar 2020)

MartinQ said:


> Yes, you are .
> That is the definition of exponential growth.


🤦‍♂️


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## stowie (10 Mar 2020)

GetFatty said:


> Why do you think people are buying toilet rolls? Is it because of a fear we may run out or because people are saying "Everyone's buying toilet rolls" while others are saying "We're in a phase of exponential growth"



The toilet roll thing does seem bizarre. I am told that the origins are in Asia where some regions really were running out of toilet roll - which was produced almost exclusively in a quarantined area thus there really was a shortage as manufacturing and distribution was stopped.

I cannot be too judgmental on these people (well OK, just a bit judgmental).

The industry I work in has similar issues. Long manufacturing time (and $$$$$ setup costs) coupled with highly flexible demand. I have seem large multinationals with all sorts of complex JIT supply chains and people in charge with lots of impressive qualifications panic buying product for which they have no immediate need simply because everyone else is. And then it either sitting in stock, or being resold at a loss when the situation resolves and they need to reduce inventory for the end of quarter shareholder report. The sort of corporate equivalent of going out to Costco and buying your own body weight in bog-roll then a week later realising that the outcome has been simply that your house is full of toilet paper.

If the corporations who pride themselves in streamlined and efficient supply chains succumb to it, I think the average person is likely to as well.


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## Mo1959 (10 Mar 2020)

Just popped into the Co-op for some munchies since it’s so miserable and noticed the toilet roll shelves were empty! I find it highly amusing and a bit baffling!


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## Joey Shabadoo (10 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just popped into the Co-op for some munchies since it’s so miserable and noticed the toilet roll shelves were empty! I find it highly amusing and a bit baffling!



What did you get to eat instead?


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## RecordAceFromNew (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The chart assumes that stopping the spread completely is not achievable, so the total infections (area under the curve) is the same whatever.
> 
> That assumption depends on transmission rates, duration and severity of restrictions, time to get a vaccine etc.
> 
> ...



The thing is while you do not believe in Chinese numbers, do you believe the scientific explanation why it can and should be controlled, which is little more complicated than the fact that isolation stops transmission? If you think the blue curve is meaningful, aren't you saying it can't be controlled (as you say the chart assumes stopping the spread is NOT achievable)?

You can disbelieve figures from China, but do you also disbelieve this*, i.e. that the social distancing efforts in Hongkong actually also stopped common flu in its track?

* google "Hong Kong’s coronavirus response leads to sharp drop in flu cases" in browser's incognito tab if paywall stops you


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## Mo1959 (10 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> What did you get to eat instead?


Crisps and cookies


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## RecordAceFromNew (10 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> I'd say the Italian cases were "growth" not exponential growth. It has stayed relatively steady at 25% increase per day. Exponential growth would see the % increase being higher each day for a sustained period, surely?
> 
> Edit: I could be horribly wrong here....



It is exponential growth*, because the growth on the PREVIOUS day stays roughly the same. The curve is not straight, it soars. For a 30% per day increase for 10 days from 100, instead of 30 increased each day to 400 by day 10, it would become 1378 instead.

Infection is exponential not linear until it is stopped or saturated, because of the network effect - 1 person transmit to 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8 etc. 

* wiki description: Exponential growth is a specific way that a quantity may increase over time. It occurs when the instantaneous rate of change (that is, the derivative) of a quantity with respect to time is proportional to the quantity itself.


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## roubaixtuesday (10 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> The thing is while you do not believe in Chinese numbers, do you believe the scientific explanation why it can and should be controlled, which is little more complicated than the fact that isolation stops transmission? If you think the blue curve is meaningful, aren't you saying it can't be controlled (as you say the chart assumes stopping the spread is NOT achievable)?
> 
> You can disbelieve figures from China, but do you also disbelieve this*, i.e. that the social distancing efforts in Hongkong actually also stopped common flu in its track?
> 
> * google "Hong Kong’s coronavirus response leads to sharp drop in flu cases" in browser's incognito tab if paywall stops you



I did not say I do not believe the China numbers, merely trying to reflect there is scepticism about them. 

But the point remains; unless the social distancing is kept in place for ever (or until vaccine), the virus will return, and the area under the curve will be the same whatever is done.


----------



## Dave7 (10 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just popped into the Co-op for some munchies since it’s so miserable and noticed the toilet roll shelves were empty! I find it highly amusing and a bit baffling!


Will it still be amusing if you get the squits and have to use grease proof paper or kitchen foil


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> Probably not too far off in China. 60,000 of the 80,000 infected have made a full recovery - "only" 17,000 active cases remain.



It's a massive way off eradicated.

To eradicate it requires zero cases anywhere for at least two weeks.

Just one case can kick off the whole epidemic again.


----------



## cookiemonster (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It's a massive way off eradicated.
> 
> To eradicate it requires zero cases anywhere for at least two weeks.
> 
> Just once case can kick off the whole epidemic again.



They doctors here say that there has to be no cases for 28 days to be certain that the outbreak is over.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (10 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I read that graph as: red zone = result of no control measures, blue zone = result of control measures. If we want to flatten the peak of infections & fatalities, don't we need to implement protective measures?



Perhaps I did not explain myself too well. If you want to stick with the labels being correct, i.e. the blue curve is with protective measures, then the red (uncontrolled) curve would not be anything like the red curve shown, but it will start like the blue curve, but going much higher, for much longer, with area underneath hundreds of times bigger. Does that make logical sense?

Based on what is known now, the chart and the associated thinking are completely bonkers, and indeed might have informed government rhetorics if not policy causing squandering of valuable time, like in the UK, talking about a control and delay phase to flatten out demands etc., when delay in social distancing can only increase and lengthen demands, what else can it achieve? 

The only charitable thing I can say about the chart, is it might have made a little bit of sense before it was demonstrated to the world the virus could be controlled, by China and other areas.


----------



## Blue Hills (10 Mar 2020)

alicat said:


> The science would suggest that we do a lockdown asap. The Government is waiting until public opinion is ready to accept it. That makes sense - if we do it too early then people just get fed up and break it and then when it becomes an epidemic nobody heeds it. Oh and the economy tanks.


A fair bit of evidence i think that the italian lock-down isn't being enforced too rigorously in any case, despite photo opps at railway stations.


----------



## nickyboy (10 Mar 2020)

At the risk of boring everyone, exponential growth can be slow or fast
For example, if the number of cases every day is 10% more than the previous day...that is exponential growth. It doesn't have to, for example, double every day to be called exponential. It just has to be "previous day x something"
The media (and posters here) make the mistake that "exponential growth" looks like that curve that races into the stratosphere. It can do, but equally the curve can be much more shallow and still be defined (by the scientists who are telling us what's what about CV) as exponential


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Does that make logical sense



No, not unless the "control measures" are enforced globally and rigorously indefinitely.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> No, not unless the "control measures" are enforced globally and rigorously indefinitely.





roubaixtuesday said:


> Just one case can kick off the whole epidemic again.



True. But I don't think anybody is saying anybody can and will rest on their laurels. I think this, Disease X essentially, is going to change various modus operandi globally forever.

I truly don't understand why would anybody think otherwise, or why believing this virus can't be controlled, or defend that chart assuming universal infection, when 100,000 is 0.17% of the Hubei population, and 0.007% of China's population, in terms of meaningful discussion and debate?


----------



## Blue Hills (10 Mar 2020)

Well the latest is that all of italy is pretty much of limits for brits for a fair while. Mass flight cancellations until sometime in april, govt advice not to go, and then if you do, and can get back, self isolate for 2 weeks even if no symptoms. Was due to fly out and if hadn't been mucked around flight would already have been booked. Austria also closed doors to Italians.
Hope pat's folks are OK.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> truly don't understand why would anybody think otherwise



Ah well, I did try. 




RecordAceFromNew said:


> I think this, Disease X essentially, is going to change various modus operandi globally forever



Interesting. Could you lay out what you think will change?


----------



## Inertia (10 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> A fair bit of evidence i think that the italian lock-down isn't being enforced too rigorously in any case, despite photo opps at railway stations.


I should imagine its also very difficult to enforce when people dont take it seriously or have their own priorities


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Interesting. Could you lay out what you think will change?



You don't ask easy question, do you? I am afraid I am still thinking about it, and lunch must come first...


----------



## kingrollo (10 Mar 2020)

GetFatty said:


> That doesn't provide evidence of exponential growth either though. There is an awful lot of panic going on about Covid-19 although Prof Witty is doing his best to keep things calm on factual in the face of media sensationalism. I was closely involved in the swine flu epidemic and have seen this at work before.
> 
> Why do you think people are buying toilet rolls? Is it because of a fear we may run out or because people are saying "Everyone's buying toilet rolls" while others are saying "We're in a phase of exponential growth"



As I said the fact that we have tested 23,000 and have around 300 positives doesn't really tell us an awful lot anymore. We can't compare our stats to italy as they are testing in a different way


----------



## kingrollo (10 Mar 2020)

Does anybodys garmin calculate exponential growth ?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (10 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Perhaps I did not explain myself too well. If you want to stick with the labels being correct, i.e. the blue curve is with protective measures, then the red (uncontrolled) curve would not be anything like the red curve shown, but it will start like the blue curve, but going much higher, for much longer, with area underneath hundreds of times bigger. Does that make logical sense?
> 
> Based on what is known now, the chart and the associated thinking are completely bonkers, and indeed might have informed government rhetorics if not policy causing squandering of valuable time, like in the UK, talking about a control and delay phase to flatten out demands etc., when delay in social distancing can only increase and lengthen demands, what else can it achieve?
> 
> The only charitable thing I can say about the chart, is it might have made a little bit of sense before it was demonstrated to the world the virus could be controlled, by China and other areas.



I'll confess you do have me confused. The graph is meant to show that by implementing strict control measures we can flatten the demand on our health service. The professor of biology who tweeted the graph (although he's not the author) used it to illustrate his comment that, "We have an opportunity to flatten the #COVID19 #coronavirus epidemic curve by aggressive social distancing and other measures."

Isn't that what you've been calling for, social distancing etc?


----------



## kingrollo (10 Mar 2020)

Revised advice on saying safe - Wash your hands - but don't wipe your ass !


----------



## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

Greek Orthodox church quote:-

“For the members of the church, attendance of the divine eucharist and the shared cup of life, of course cannot be a cause of transmission of illness,” the body of senior clerics said in the statement. “Believers of all ages know that attending communion, even in the midst of a pandemic, is both a practical affirmation of self-surrender to the living god and a potent manifestation of love, which vanquishes every human and perhaps justified fear.” 

Really, Your elderly parishioners might diminish substantially. Let's blindly follow Religious preaching.


----------



## Dave7 (10 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Greek Orthodox church quote:-
> 
> “For the members of the church, attendance of the divine eucharist and the shared cup of life, of course cannot be a cause of transmission of illness,” the body of senior clerics said in the statement. “Believers of all ages know that attending communion, even in the midst of a pandemic, is both a practical affirmation of self-surrender to the living god and a potent manifestation of love, which vanquishes every human and perhaps justified fear.”
> 
> Really, Your elderly parishioners might diminish substantially. Let's blindly follow Religious preaching.


Jehovahs Witnesses have a long held doctrine of "follow Gods rule rather than man's". They have regular assemblies/conventions of 1,000-40,000. That will be interesting


----------



## GetFatty (10 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> They doctors here say that there has to be no cases for 28 days to be certain that the outbreak is over.


Outbreak over <> eradicated. Flu hasn't been eradicated but you can have months without a case.


----------



## MartinQ (10 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Does anybodys garmin calculate exponential growth ?



The time I take on my rides seems to follow that pattern.


----------



## MichaelO (10 Mar 2020)

373 UK cases as at 9am - up from 319 (+17%). I wonder how many people in the UK actually have it.


----------



## cookiemonster (10 Mar 2020)

Just 118 cases in Hong Kong with 3 deaths. Considering how densely populated many parts of HK are, it seems we’ve got off lightly. So far.


----------



## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Jehovahs Witnesses have a long held doctrine of "follow Gods rule rather than man's". They have regular assemblies/conventions of 1,000-40,000. That will be interesting



As someone that used to go to Church, I never did the wine thing - I'm not drinking 50 people's spit, blessed or not.


----------



## numbnuts (10 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> As someone that used to go to Church, I never did the wine thing - I'm not drinking 50 people's spit, blessed or not.


I never did the wine thing either.


----------



## Smokin Joe (10 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Just 118 cases in Hong Kong with 3 deaths. Considering how densely populated many parts of HK are, it seems we’ve got off lightly. So far.


118 people showing symptoms, but that probably bears no relation to the number who actually have it with either no symptoms at all or those that are so mild they ignore it as just a slight cold. Interestingly, the cruise ship that has just docked in the States with thousands of passengers and crew trapped together in a confined space has just 21 confirmed cases of the virus.

There's a lot of hysteria out there, keep calm, be sensible and carry on.


----------



## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> I never did the wine thing either.



I'm not sharing mine !


----------



## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> There's a lot of hysteria out there, keep calm, be sensible and carry on.



I had a poke on Mumsnet CV thread (pointed at it from Singletrack) - oh my word - if this reflects the general hysteria going round. People absolutely crapping themselves. Mark my word, there will be panic fuel buying next.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (10 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> I had a poke on Mumsnet CV thread (pointed at it from Singletrack) - oh my word - if this reflects the general hysteria going round. People absolutely crapping themselves. Mark my word, there will be panic fuel buying next.



What's that? A fuel shortage you say?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 Mar 2020)

Maybe spread a rumour that you are most likely to catch it sitting in traffic in your car....


----------



## All uphill (10 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Maybe spread a rumour that you are most likely to catch it sitting in traffic in your car....


Petrol kills the virus. Fact.

That should be entertaining.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 Mar 2020)

I heard rubbing manure over your face kills the virus. Fact.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (10 Mar 2020)

Cyclists have immunity - Fact


----------



## fossyant (10 Mar 2020)

I'm sure it was @Fab Foodie that was spreading the drinking alcohol rumour in Iran  He forgot to mention drinking wine or beer, and not home made pure stuff.

Fact (I think).


----------



## Milkfloat (10 Mar 2020)




----------



## Milzy (10 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Cyclists have immunity - Fact


I said this months ago.


----------



## MichaelO (10 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> I had a poke on Mumsnet CV thread


You made me look....oh my word!!


----------



## nickyboy (10 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> You made me look....oh my word!!


Whilst overreaction is a bad thing, I'd much rather be in a country full of overreactors than underreactors
Overreactors panic buy. Underreactors don't maintain good hygiene. People don't die from lack of toilet rolls


----------



## tom73 (10 Mar 2020)

So much for panic buying soap just called in a shop and walk past the soap to find people debating which flavour of soap to get. 
Who cares just use the stuff, the virus really won't care which one you use.  
I notice the cheeper stuff is never in short supply now is not a time for being a snob.


----------



## Smokin Joe (10 Mar 2020)

From the Guardian -

*What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?*



It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.


----------



## vickster (10 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> So much for panic buying soap just called in a shop and walk past the soap to find people debating which flavour of soap to get.
> Who cares just use the stuff, the virus really won't care which one you use.
> I notice the cheeper stuff is never in short supply now is not a time for being a snob.


Surely that’s their choice as long as they buy some?

Is the cheeper one made of budgie spit?


----------



## Fab Foodie (10 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> I'm sure it was @Fab Foodie that was spreading the drinking alcohol rumour in Iran  He forgot to mention drinking wine or beer, and not home made pure stuff.
> 
> Fact (I think).


Busted!


----------



## tom73 (10 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Surely that’s their choice as long as they buy some?
> 
> Is the cheeper one made of budgie spit?


Yes but they can't be in so much of a panic if they have time to care.


----------



## vickster (10 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes but they can't be in so much of a panic if they have time to care.


Maybe they just need soap, no panic. Why does it matter?


----------



## MichaelO (10 Mar 2020)

Big jump in deaths in Italy from 463 to 631!


----------



## Milzy (10 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> Big jump in deaths in Italy from 463 to 631!


Over 1000 by Monday.


----------



## tom73 (10 Mar 2020)

For anyone who can't see the point of hand washing and thinks it some sort of joke. 
This week's BBC click show's a bit of a 2018 BBC program contagion. Showing graphically how effective it is at slowing down the spread.


----------



## BoldonLad (10 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> If it was 1985 we'd now just be becoming aware of an issue in a city in deepest China, that we'd never heard of. We'd be worried, then we'd forget about it all together, then it'd be over.


If it was 1885, we would not even know about it! Before radio, TV, internet etc


----------



## Mrs M (10 Mar 2020)

Received a voice message from my friend, Mario, he lives just north of Milan.
He and his family are all ok. 
All in lockdown though, scary situation


----------



## vickster (10 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> If it was 1885, we would not even know about it! Before radio, TV, internet etc


And the average life expectancy for men was about 40 back then!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> If it was 1885, we would not even know about it! Before radio, TV, internet etc







https://www.knowitall.org/sites/default/files/1599681240Seattle_flu_quarantine_SDT_10-5-1918.jpg


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 Mar 2020)

Data out of Italy on people who’ve tested positive for Covid19

10% show no symptoms
45% show mild symptoms
22% of all positive tests are aged 18-50


----------



## Low Gear Guy (10 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Maybe spread a rumour that you are most likely to catch it sitting in traffic in your car....


Sitting in traffic leads to a sedentary lifestyle which may lead to overall bad health.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 Mar 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Sitting in traffic leads to a sedentary lifestyle which may lead to overall bad health.



It does indeed, it weakens the immune system over time.


----------



## RoadRider400 (10 Mar 2020)

If it gets really bad and triage are facing tough decisions I wonder if heavy smokers will be bumped down the pecking order. Its a respiratory illness after all. Not saying it would be right or wrong, more a general musing.


----------



## Fab Foodie (10 Mar 2020)

Another busy flight LHR to Dublin this evening....


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Another busy flight LHR to Dublin this evening....
> 
> View attachment 507885



Blimey. I imagine Heathrow is almost bearable for a change?


----------



## Mrs M (10 Mar 2020)

Wee article in today’s evening paper


----------



## Blue Hills (10 Mar 2020)

wow wasn't aware of that.

Didn't think there had been typhoid here for ages.

I know there was in Naples (60s/early 70s?)


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> If it was 1885, we would not even know about it! Before radio, TV, internet etc



You do know that many of the undersea telegraph cables were in place by then? Communication of messages from America or India or even Australia etc. was measured in minutes.

Below a map of the British network in 1901


----------



## glasgowcyclist (10 Mar 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> If it gets really bad and triage are facing tough decisions I wonder if heavy smokers will be bumped down the pecking order. Its a respiratory illness after all. Not saying it would be right or wrong, more a general musing.



This whole Twitter thread is worth a read but your point is covered in this particular tweet...


View: https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237144089855963136?s=19


----------



## marinyork (10 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Another busy flight LHR to Dublin this evening....



Are you flying the plane and doing the drinks as well?


----------



## marinyork (10 Mar 2020)

New York state now has a 1 mile exclusion zone.


----------



## MartinQ (10 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> You do know that many of the undersea telegraph cables were in place by then? Communication of messages from America or India or even Australia etc. was measured in minutes.
> 
> Below a map of the British network in 1901
> 
> View attachment 507892


Apparently quite a few went under London, which was handy when WW1 kicked off.


----------



## ozboz (10 Mar 2020)

KEEP OFF !


----------



## vickster (10 Mar 2020)

Umm how’s that going to stop someone just pulling the whole lot off the roll


----------



## Fab Foodie (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Blimey. I imagine Heathrow is almost bearable for a change?


Getting there!


----------



## MartinQ (10 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Umm how’s that going to stop someone just pulling the whole lot off the roll


Tbh, it's quite a posh loo roll holder for a cyclist. Just mount it on the wall.


----------



## rualexander (10 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> wow wasn't aware of that.
> 
> Didn't think there had been typhoid here for ages.
> 
> I know there was in Naples (60s/early 70s?)



Fray Bentos corned beef from South America was the culprit in Aberdeen.


----------



## Rusty Nails (10 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> New York state now has a 1 mile exclusion zone.



Around one town........at the moment.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51826317


----------



## nickyboy (10 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> This whole Twitter thread is worth a read but your point is covered in this particular tweet...
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237144089855963136?s=19



It paints a chilling picture. Perhaps this situation is one reason the mortality rate in Italy is so high? 
I read an article about the facilities available in Wuhan. They far exceeded anything available in any western country.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> Fray Bentos corned beef from South America was the culprit in Aberdeen.



odds factoids that way ——->


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 Mar 2020)

MartinQ said:


> Tbh, it's quite a posh loo roll holder for a cyclist. Just mount it on the wall.



posh, pah the plastic has broken off the lock body.


----------



## MartinQ (10 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> posh, pah the plastic has broken off the lock body.



My lock is a lot more knackered than that one.


----------



## CanucksTraveller (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Blimey. I imagine Heathrow is almost bearable for a change?


Today at 1pm:


----------



## Pat "5mph" (10 Mar 2020)

Mrs M said:


> Received a voice message from my friend, Mario, he lives just north of Milan.
> He and his family are all ok.
> All in lockdown though, scary situation


Well, if the population of Milan had stayed put when told, instead for fleeing in a panic to their seaside homes, or going out socializing like the corona virus is all a big joke, the infection would not have spread so fast to the central/south regions.
What is so scary about staying put for a few weeks, and taking basic precautions?
There was a leak of info before the official lock down directives from the government were made public.
Thousands from the Milan/Turin areas left, either to holiday homes or to family homes in the previously non affected zones.
Very irresponsible, imo.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Mar 2020)

Nadine Dorries tests positive. 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1237505428570816512


----------



## lazybloke (10 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Data out of Italy on people who’ve tested positive for Covid19
> 
> 10% show no symptoms
> 45% show mild symptoms
> 22% of all positive tests are aged 18-50



Interesting that 55% had mild or no symptoms, makes me wonder about the other 45% and if there's any further breakdown. Got a link?


----------



## slowmotion (10 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Data out of Italy on people who’ve tested positive for Covid19
> 
> 10% show no symptoms
> 45% show mild symptoms
> 22% of all positive tests are aged 18-50


Did they publish any reliable data about whether or not Fiats rust?


----------



## steve292 (10 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Nadine Dorries tests positive.
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1237505428570816512



God moves in mysterious ways.


----------



## stowie (11 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Nadine Dorries tests positive.
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1237505428570816512




As much as I disagree with her entire political view, I wish her a speedy recovery.


----------



## PeteXXX (11 Mar 2020)

Worrying that she was at a bash in No10 the day before she 'self isolated', apparently! !


----------



## Blue Hills (11 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Well, if the population of Milan had stayed put when told, instead for fleeing in a panic to their seaside homes, or going out socializing like the corona virus is all a big joke, the infection would not have spread so fast to the central/south regions.
> What is so scary about staying put for a few weeks, and taking basic precautions?
> There was a leak of info before the official lock down directives from the government were made public.
> Thousands from the Milan/Turin areas left, either to holiday homes or to family homes in the previously non affected zones.
> Very irresponsible, imo.


Yes and now they are stuck in their temporary homes. I imagine every day, thousands are thinking," i'll just get the ..... Doh! It's at home."


----------



## Mugshot (11 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Nadine Dorries tests positive.
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1237505428570816512




View: https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1237517539883634688?s=20


----------



## Dave7 (11 Mar 2020)

Just reading a quote from the Liverpool Echo which says "Liverpool people must stick together to defeat this virus"
Really ???
I thought the idea was to keep one metre apart


----------



## screenman (11 Mar 2020)

Hand washing, my far better half is a chiropodist and often has people come in that have not washed thier feet for weeks, what chance them washing hands?


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> Worrying that she was at a bash in No10 the day before she 'self isolated', apparently! !


Not worrying. No10 might take it seriously now. Just need Trumpy to catch it


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

screenman said:


> Hand washing, my far better half is a chiropodist and often has people come in that have not washed thier feet for weeks, what chance them washing hands?



OMG


----------



## marinyork (11 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Not worrying. No10 might take it seriously now. Just need Trumpy to catch it



Out of the Dorries story it was reported that despite the stuff said a couple of weeks ago about more tests that a maximum of 1500 tests can be carried out a day. Today this is finally going to increase to 10,000. It might be why numbers only been jumping by 50 a day. Tomorrow could jump by several hundred.


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Out of the Dorries story it was reported that despite the stuff said a couple of weeks ago about more tests that a maximum of 1500 tests can be carried out a day. Today this is finally going to increase to 10,000. It might be why numbers only been jumping by 50 a day. Tomorrow could jump by several hundred.


You can't make this stuff up


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Mar 2020)

lazybloke said:


> Interesting that 55% had mild or no symptoms, makes me wonder about the other 45% and if there's any further breakdown. Got a link?



No further statistics were quoted I’m afraid


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> No further statistics were quoted I’m afraid



Nice infographic with sources here https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/


----------



## marinyork (11 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> No further statistics were quoted I’m afraid



Given what happened to the infamous patient uno I'm not sure what one can read into initial statistics from Italy.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Given what happened to the infamous patient uno I'm not sure what one can read into initial statistics from Italy.



Pray tell what happened to the first one?


----------



## stowie (11 Mar 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> Worrying that she was at a bash in No10 the day before she 'self isolated', apparently! !



This is one of the things about this virus - the symptoms of having it is far shorter than the contagion period. I was reading last night that the exact contagion period is uncertain at the moment, but judging by the transmission statistics, people will be passing it on before symptoms show. A MP will have been in contact with a lot of people on an average week.

The same article said that the reason SARS was contained (a far more deadly disease) was because people were generally really ill before they had a chance to pass it on and so isolating patients quickly could be very effective.


----------



## marinyork (11 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Pray tell what happened to the first one?



It's not known precisely but likely a gigantic superspreader. More things in recent days have suggested that he did seek medical advice and help multiple times, in contact with a large number of different medics, patients, friends. That that medical help went wrong, many people from neighbouring provinces infected and circulating before contact tracing tried in vain and then tests found out oh dear we better have a quarantine in 11 communes - which people didn't stick to, although doesn't seem as widely flouted as the northern quarantine.

Italians see it very differently from us. They think their response has been far better than the uk, spain or germany and can't work out why it is so bad there. 

My point was that sadly, patient uno's behaviour and the system set up to try and help him seems to have gone very badly wrong and seems to be viewed in italy by the more discerning discussion as to why it's been pretty much unstoppable in Italy.


----------



## MichaelO (11 Mar 2020)

This was a very interesting read


View: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca


----------



## marinyork (11 Mar 2020)

Italy has practically everyone in the country wearing an FFP3 mask and social distancing and it's still spreading wildly. Does it actually work? It's being rigorously enforced in supermarkets and large mobs of people are crowded outside to get into them.

Yes I know captain kirk here is gonna say well of course they did it too late for it to work, after 5 to 6 days if they do it properly it will start to pay off.


----------



## Mo1959 (11 Mar 2020)

I suspect the numbers here are going to shoot up soon. A health centre near Falkirk has put up a post saying a number of their staff have respiratory symptoms which sounds a bit worrying. They are currently taking advice on the next steps.


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I suspect the numbers here are going to shoot up soon. A health centre near Falkirk has put up a post saying a number of their staff have respiratory symptoms which sounds a bit worrying. They are currently taking advice on the next steps.



Most of the Government may get it yet !


----------



## glasgowcyclist (11 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Yes I know captain kirk here is gonna say well of course they did it too late for it to work, after 5 to 6 days if they do it properly it will start to pay off.



They did act too slowly. Look at Taiwan which, despite being on China's doorstep and with hundreds of thousands of their people living and working in China, could have been seriously affected by the outbreak but with early measures and a high level of preparedness has limited the cases to 45 and a single death.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...avirus-countries-stumble-200307034353325.html

We in the west have been too slow to act and will pay the price.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Mar 2020)

Has this been posted?

https://theanaesthesia.blog/2020/03/09/the-uk-covid-19-epidemic-time-to-plan-and-time-to-act/


----------



## PK99 (11 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Pray tell what happened to the first one?



_On 18 February, a fit 38-year old with no apparent links to China fell ill in Codogno. He saw his GP and visited his local hospital several times, but his symptoms were not picked up as resulting from the coronavirus.


Known as Patient One by the Italian media, when he was finally admitted to hospital he was tested after a 36-hour delay, which he spent outside isolation. By that time he had infected a number of medical personnel and other contacts over a period of days._

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nce-to-quarantine-how-coronavirus-swept-italy

From the same article:

_“Mistakes were made, probably, in late January,” the author Beppe Severgnini wrote in an op-ed for the New York Times on 2 March. “Italy may have been ill advised to stop flights to and from China; those flights would have provided a clear indication of who was arriving from that country, making health checks easier.”_

Its worth reading the whole article


----------



## Blue Hills (11 Mar 2020)

Good piece here making clear the farce that is almost certainly going to hit the states.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51803890

Trump usual stupidity and crassness at the beginning, then a good outline of the availability (or sheer lack) of testkits, then a clear analysis of the potential costs for folks.

Potential as in many folks aren't going to want to/be able to pay the costs.

Chickens and roosting.


----------



## Beebo (11 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Another busy flight LHR to Dublin this evening....
> 
> View attachment 507885


I bet they still allocated you a middle row seat unless you paid extra.


----------



## kingrollo (11 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> They did act too slowly. Look at Taiwan which, despite being on China's doorstep and with hundreds of thousands of their people living and working in China, could have been seriously affected by the outbreak but with early measures and a high level of preparedness has limited the cases to 45 and a single death.
> 
> https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...avirus-countries-stumble-200307034353325.html
> 
> We in the west have been too slow to act and will pay the price.



depends what the price is. We appear to be keeping the economy going at the expense of peoples lives


----------



## kingrollo (11 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Out of the Dorries story it was reported that despite the stuff said a couple of weeks ago about more tests that a maximum of 1500 tests can be carried out a day. Today this is finally going to increase to 10,000. It might be why numbers only been jumping by 50 a day. Tomorrow could jump by several hundred.



Yep our numbers don't look to bad - but we have only tested 25k people - Italy are doing far more than that

I read somewhere that from Today *anyone* presenting with *respiratory symptoms *would be tested - which begs the question whats been happening to them up until this point.


----------



## marinyork (11 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Its worth reading the whole article



This is the Guardian's reporting of it, which whilst in the UK is the most extensive, is still widely underreported (as they were very slow and underreported quarantine news as well). If you switch on italian tv programs at times there is at times large and even more commentary on patient uno.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 Mar 2020)

'Sakes. Just been into Asda in Gala and they've absolutely no pasta or loo roll. Lassie at the checkout said yesterday was chaos, with people piling trolleys high.


----------



## cookiemonster (11 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> They did act too slowly. Look at Taiwan which, despite being on China's doorstep and with hundreds of thousands of their people living and working in China, could have been seriously affected by the outbreak but with early measures and a high level of preparedness has limited the cases to 45 and a single death.
> 
> https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...avirus-countries-stumble-200307034353325.html
> 
> We in the west have been too slow to act and will pay the price.



That’s my fear too. We thought Taiwan were over-reacting by, basically, shutting themselves off. It’s worked. In Hong Kong, despite having a border with China, some of the most densely populated places on the planet, we have 125 cases and 3 deaths. Because HK shut schools, workplaces and stopped large gatherings of people. Everything the UK Gov is refusing to do.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (11 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I read somewhere that from Today *anyone* presenting with *respiratory symptoms *would be tested - which begs the question whats been happening to them up until this point.



Perhaps they've been denied tests...


View: https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1237337876842647552


----------



## marinyork (11 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yep our numbers don't look to bad - but we have only tested 25k people - Italy are doing far more than that
> 
> I read somewhere that from Today *anyone* presenting with *respiratory symptoms *would be tested - which begs the question whats been happening to them up until this point.



Many won't have been tested. 1500 is going to be very limited geographically, very thinly spread out over very many locations. It's not clear why this is, whether PHE and the government were lying, whether they were misleading, whether they promised things they can't deliver or have been blocked by other countries getting hands on the kits first. Whichever way it is, it's bad. I get what many others have said even on here that when it really kicks off, tests will run out.

Italy are testing far more people as I suspect looking at the maps and death rates that (that will grow a lot as they are overwhelmed) maybe there are something like another 10-20,000 people in Italy who have it.


----------



## Milkfloat (11 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> That’s my fear too. We thought Taiwan were over-reacting by, basically, shutting themselves off. It’s worked. In Hong Kong, despite having a border with China, some of the most densely populated places on the planet, we have 125 cases and 3 deaths. Because HK shut schools, workplaces and stopped large gatherings of people. Everything the UK Gov is refusing to do.



Is it not just delaying the inevitable though? Surely the point is to smooth out the peak(s) of chronic cases, whilst balancing the economic impact and the impact that isolation will have on the population. Give it a few weeks and I am sure we will hear of cases where vulnerable people starved to death due to the lock downs.


----------



## cookiemonster (11 Mar 2020)

That hasn’t happened here. Why would it happen in the UK?


----------



## Low Gear Guy (11 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> 'Sakes. Just been into Asda in Gala and they've absolutely no pasta or loo roll. Lassie at the checkout said yesterday was chaos, with people piling trolleys high.


At this rate, there will soon be people selling toilet rolls from unmarked vans.


----------



## PeteXXX (11 Mar 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> At this rate, there will soon be people selling toilet rolls from unmarked vans.


Second hand? Partially used? 🤔


----------



## kingrollo (11 Mar 2020)

Milkfloat said:


> Is it not just delaying the inevitable though? Surely the point is to smooth out the peak(s) of chronic cases, whilst balancing the economic impact and the impact that isolation will have on the population. Give it a few weeks and I am sure we will hear of cases where vulnerable people starved to death due to the lock downs.



But even if that is true - what action is being taken to smooth out the peaks ? - Apart from telling everyone to wash their hands what has the UK govt done ?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I read somewhere that from Today *anyone* presenting with *respiratory symptoms *would be tested - which begs the question whats been happening to them up until this point.



The advice has been to carry on as normal. As pointed out above the 111 online assessor is all about your travel movements or known contact with people who’ve been to “hotspots”. Very little about the symptoms.

My wife had flu last week and had most of the classic symptoms. We were advised to treat it as normal flu. She had fever for about 36 hours. It is a difficult one as Covid19 will present as normal flu or even just a cold for a great many. But at the moment the UK health bodies are not looking for or assuming community transmission.

My wife is better now and at its height my nose ran for a couple of days. But we have no idea if it was Covid19 as NHS not interested in testing. In fact I don’t think they have the capacity to do that this time of year even if they wanted.

Like many here it’s your parents or grand parents you worry about the most. Death through your lungs filling with liquid is no way to go.


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

I'll see if my colleague is in tomorrow - her husband arrives home tonight - NHS advice is carry on, despite him being in self isolation.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (11 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> But even if that is true - what action is being taken to smooth out the peaks ? - Apart from telling everyone to wash their hands what has the UK govt done ?




They seem to be crossing their fingers and hoping for the best.

Take the Nadine Dorries incident; the PM and other ministers are not undergoing testing, with the Department of Health justifying this because only her close contacts with symptoms will need to self-isolate. Since the symptoms can take 14 days to present, wouldn't it be a wise thing to test all of her close contacts? Why let them run around potentially infecting the rest of government while they remain asymptomatic? 

Also, there's no mention in any of the news reports which of the category 1 or category 2 countries she has recently returned from so is this a community infection?


----------



## nickyboy (11 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yep our numbers don't look to bad - but we have only tested 25k people - Italy are doing far more than that
> 
> I read somewhere that from Today *anyone* presenting with *respiratory symptoms *would be tested - which begs the question whats been happening to them up until this point.


The numbers tested are very interesting

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

As you can see UK is towards the top of the league when it comes to tests per million of population. Far higher than, say France which has far more cases than UK

So it leads one to speculate...

Perhaps the key is how connected the country is to the explosion of cases in N Italy? France, Germany, Switzerland all appear to have a lot more cases per capita than UK and presumably they are a lot more connected to N Italy. 
I don't know what's going on in Spain which seems to be like France and Germany but presumably isn't particularly connected to N Italy. Maybe UK dodges the bullet a bit because it isn't closely associated with N Italy?


----------



## kingrollo (11 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The advice has been to carry on as normal. As pointed out above the 111 online assessor is all about your travel movements or known contact with people who’ve been to “hotspots”. Very little about the symptoms.
> 
> My wife had flu last week and had most of the classic symptoms. We were advised to treat it as normal flu. She had fever for about 36 hours. It is a difficult one as Covid19 will present as normal flu or even just a cold for a great many. But at the moment the UK health bodies are not looking for or assuming community transmission.
> 
> ...


I can't believe anyone seriously thinks there is no community transmission.!!!


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I can't believe anyone seriously thinks there is no community transmission.!!!



Exactly specially in pubs and such like.

As for self isolation for two weeks. Unless you live in a mansion with many rooms that’s not going to happen. The closest you’ll get it some form of household isolation and minimal to no social engagements. But shopping trips will still occur by whomever in the household feels well enough.


----------



## nickyboy (11 Mar 2020)

There is a fascinating metric of how cities are reacting to the virus in terms of social distancing: traffic congestion

Tom Tom provides real time information 

https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/

Here is Milan







So you can see the traffic levels are way down as you'd expect

Here's Paris






No significant change there

Here's Madrid






Look at what's happened today. Congestion levels down massively. Looks like the people of Madrid are staying at home

BTW, all UK cities are at normal levels, like Paris


----------



## Milkfloat (11 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> But even if that is true - what action is being taken to smooth out the peaks ? - Apart from telling everyone to wash their hands what has the UK govt done ?


We are not near a peak yet, my guess is that when the numbers start to massively rise then we close schools, ban mass gathering etc.


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## glasgowcyclist (11 Mar 2020)

Milkfloat said:


> We are not near a peak yet, my guess is that when the numbers start to massively rise then we close schools, ban mass gathering etc.




Why wait?

The number of official diagnoses will always be considerably behind the true infection status.


----------



## kingrollo (11 Mar 2020)

Why does it peak ? 
Does there come a point when too many people are ill to go out infecting others ?


----------



## kingrollo (11 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Why wait?
> 
> The number of official diagnoses will always be considerably behind the true infection status.



Yes if you very crudely re engineer the fatality rate - at best case scenario (1%) - that still gives 700 infections - factor in a transmission rate of 2.5 - you see we probably have 2500 infections with a lot of those people feeling ok - so still passing it on.

Our approach doesn't seem to be that different from the USA to be honest.


----------



## MarkF (11 Mar 2020)

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/


----------



## lazybloke (11 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> 'Sakes. Just been into Asda in Gala and they've absolutely no pasta or loo roll. Lassie at the checkout said yesterday was chaos, with people piling trolleys high.


I bet there are still plenty of Pot Noodles


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## MichaelO (11 Mar 2020)

456 UK cases as of this morning


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## Milkfloat (11 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Why wait?
> 
> The number of official diagnoses will always be considerably behind the true infection status.


Because we are not fully utilizing all our resources yet, the aim should be to run at just under breaking point. If you lock people up for 2 weeks, then all that happens is that you simply delay the inevitable as after 2 weeks everyone just goes back to normality and then the number of cases explodes.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (11 Mar 2020)

Milkfloat said:


> Because we are not fully utilizing all our resources yet, the aim should be to run at just under breaking point. If you lock people up for 2 weeks, then all that happens is that you simply delay the inevitable as after 2 weeks everyone just goes back to normality and then the number of cases explodes.




Did you read how Taiwan managed the crisis? 

They are bang on the doorstep of the virus's origin yet have managed to limit the number of cases to 49 and just a single death to date in a population of ~24 million. Here in Scotland we're already at 36 cases in a population about one quarter of Taiwan's.

Taiwan used early containment and it has worked.


----------



## Milkfloat (11 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Did you read how Taiwan managed the crisis?
> 
> They are bang on the doorstep of the virus's origin yet have managed to limit the number of cases to 49 and just a single death to date in a population of ~24 million. Here in Scotland we're already at 36 cases in a population about one quarter of Taiwan's.
> 
> Taiwan used early containment and it has worked.



It has worked for now, but what happens when they relax their controls? They cannot stay hidden forever. 

The only way this gets resolved is if enough people get infected and build immunity or a vaccine is given to the whole world. Give it a few years and this will just be another strain of flu added to the yearly jab.


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Why let them run around potentially infecting the rest of government while they remain asymptomatic?



There must be a plan to get rid of the current waste of time MP's

I wonder if their chief adviser is called Mr G Faulks. He failed last time.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 Mar 2020)

Just got this in an email from work:



> The World Health Organisation has declared Coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern. Currently the risk to the public in the UK remains at a 'moderate' level. Despite this, the government has announced that in accordance with regulation 3 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020, the threat from the transmission of coronavirus constitutes a 'serious and imminent threat to public health' so measures have been implemented to forcibly quarantine anyone with coronavirus, preventing them from leaving a facility and also giving them the power to forcibly send someone to isolation if they pose a threat to public health. This development comes after it was reported that a British patient at an isolation facility was threatening to leave.


----------



## BoldonLad (11 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> You do know that many of the undersea telegraph cables were in place by then? Communication of messages from America or India or even Australia etc. was measured in minutes.
> 
> Below a map of the British network in 1901
> 
> View attachment 507892


No doubt, that is true, but, they didnt have 24/7 news to be filled, Social Media, mobile phones etc etc


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## kingrollo (11 Mar 2020)

Milkfloat said:


> It has worked for now, but what happens when they relax their controls? They cannot stay hidden forever.
> 
> The only way this gets resolved is if enough people get infected and build immunity or a vaccine is given to the whole world. *Give it a few years* and this will just be another strain of flu added to the yearly jab.



You have covered two points there in answer to one question

1.So lets we wait until like Italy we have around 100 people per day dying - so then we implement lock down - when we release it - do the numbers not go back up ? (as you said they would if we implemented lock down to soon) 

2.This probably will just be another strain of the flu jab in due course - but in the interim should we not employ the methods that have worked in other countries?


----------



## Dave7 (11 Mar 2020)

First case in Warrington. Some guy just returned from Warrington.
Been nice knowing you


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> First case in Warrington. Some guy just returned from Warrington.
> Been nice knowing you



🤧😷


----------



## Dave7 (11 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> 🤧😷


You can trust me, honest, really.


----------



## johnnyb47 (11 Mar 2020)

Hmmmm. 
I'm a little concerned about work at the moment. 
On Friday we are having an expected lorry coming in from Italy delivering goods. 
As I'm responsible for checking off the goods I've been told by my boss that i must wear a mask, gloves and practice good hand washing hygiene whilst dealing with the delivery and driver. Ive also been told to keep the driver away from mingling with staff. 
Oh course this is all precautionary and highly unlikely there is a risk but its still making me feel wary about it all. One of the staff members has already told me he's staying well away. 
I really don't know what to do for the best. Am i over reacting?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Mar 2020)




----------



## johnnyb47 (11 Mar 2020)

The reason why everyone is panic buying bog rolls is because if someone sneezes, everybody around them ends up s*%ting then selves


----------



## MichaelO (11 Mar 2020)

Lots of City firms are starting mandatory WFH from Monday. May have to re-ignite my cycling to work - those London roads will be deserted!! And if I have to WFH, then my cycle to work may have to take in a few lanes in a strangely circular route!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> Lots of City firms are starting mandatory WFH from Monday. May have to re-ignite my cycling to work - those London roads will be deserted!! And if I have to WFH, then my cycle to work may have to take in a few lanes in a strangely circular route!



Hehe. I'm already planning my "cycle to work from home routes". I think I might do my return journey at lunch time rather than in the evening.


----------



## nickyboy (11 Mar 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> Hmmmm.
> I'm a little concerned about work at the moment.
> On Friday we are having an expected lorry coming in from Italy delivering goods.
> As I'm responsible for checking off the goods I've been told by my boss that i must wear a mask, gloves and practice good hand washing hygiene whilst dealing with the delivery and driver. Ive also been told to keep the driver away from mingling with staff.
> ...


Limiting contact to only essential staff is a good idea if the driver is from Italy. If you need to have contact, make sure you maintain a sensible distance and wash your hands immediately after checking off the goods. While you're checking off the goods, try to avoid touching your face. That should be feasible as you're wearing a mask and gloves anyway
As I mentioned elsewhere, overreaction is better than underreaction atm


----------



## Dave7 (11 Mar 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> The reason why everyone is panic buying bog rolls is because if someone sneezes, everybody around them ends up s*%ting then selves


Bit late to buy a bog roll when you are on a bus and sh*t yourself.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Mar 2020)

@johnnyb47 Also find out what the process is for the sterilising or disposal of the work supplied mask and gloves.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 Mar 2020)

I asked one of the staff at Tesco where the toilet roll was.

"We ran out yesterday" was the reply.

Felt a bit awkward shuffling back to the loo with my trousers round my ankles.


----------



## Mike_P (11 Mar 2020)

According to NHS

*Symptoms of coronavirus*
The symptoms of coronavirus are:


a cough
a high temperature
shortness of breath
Note no mention of a running nose.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> According to NHS
> 
> *Symptoms of coronavirus*
> The symptoms of coronavirus are:
> ...



Same as the symptoms of cycling up Winnats pass then.


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

Hardly any loo roll, tinned tomatoes, pasata, pasta etc in our local morrisons. Guess who is cooking up bolognese tonight. Got 3 tins of tomatoes and pasata. Thats all gone into the batch of bolognese.


----------



## Rocky (11 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Hardly any loo roll, tinned tomatoes, pasata, pasta etc in our local morrisons. Guess who is cooking up bolognese tonight. Got 3 tins of tomatoes and pasata. Thats all gone into the batch of bolognese.


I hope you’ve washed the cutlery......wouldn’t want you to get the trots with that shortage of loo rolls.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Another busy flight LHR to Dublin this evening....
> 
> View attachment 507885



Did you have to pedal harder because of this?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> According to NHS
> 
> *Symptoms of coronavirus*
> The symptoms of coronavirus are:
> ...



It is mentioned on the WHO advice as one of the possible mild symptoms. The above combination is the trigger to seek medical help according to WHO.


Stay at home if you begin to feel unwell, even with mild symptoms such as headache and slight runny nose, until you recover. *Why?* Avoiding contact with others and visits to medical facilities will allow these facilities to operate more effectively and help protect you and others from possible COVID-19 and other viruses.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I asked one of the staff at Tesco where the toilet roll was.
> 
> "We ran out yesterday" was the reply.
> 
> Felt a bit awkward shuffling back to the loo with my trousers round my ankles.



Surprised they didn’t tell you to BOGOF


----------



## GM (11 Mar 2020)

Coronavirus has been found in our local toy shop...


----------



## Fab Foodie (11 Mar 2020)

Just in from Wimpers....

Just been to Sainsburys in Deal. Hardly any cat food, pasta, toilet roll, tissues or cold remedies. The shop was eerily empty. It is madness.


----------



## screenman (11 Mar 2020)

lazybloke said:


> I bet there are still plenty of Pot Noodles



Not any more, but my garage is full.


----------



## Rocky (11 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Just in from Wimpers....
> 
> Just been to Sainsburys in Deal. Hardly any cat food, pasta, toilet roll, tissues or cold remedies. The shop was eerily empty. It is madness.


Any gin?


----------



## Fab Foodie (11 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Did you have to pedal harder because of this?


Indeed, I fear tonights flight will be much the same. The lounge which was rammed 2 weeks ago now has 5 occupants....


----------



## screenman (11 Mar 2020)

Official news, vodka helps.


----------



## Fab Foodie (11 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Any gin?


We have it piped-in....


----------



## PK99 (11 Mar 2020)

Popped into my local Wetherspoons on the way home this PM.

Group of 6 middle aged folks came in and sat down at a nearby table and got drinks. 5 ladies 1 bloke

A plates of chips arrived a few minutes later, all six tucked in eating with fingers.
No had sanitizer and no visit to the facilities for hand wash.

So far just taking their own risk.

The concerning thing was that one of the 6 took the top off a bottle of sauce, wrapping her hand around the top in the process and then replaced the top and returned it to the side table.

Poor personal hygiene at the best of times, at the moment quite scary.


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I hope you’ve washed the cutlery......wouldn’t want you to get the trots with that shortage of loo rolls.



Oh yes. Now panic made enough for 3 meals for 4 people, and two extra lunches. Batch cooking at it's best.


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Any gin?



Don't get me on cat food - having got 5 very hungry mouths that will only eat Felix as good as it looks, argh ! A couple of them will eat Whiskas pouches. None of them will eat tinned.


----------



## Rocky (11 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Don't get me on cat food - having got 5 very hungry mouths that will only eat Felix as good as it looks, argh ! A couple of them will eat Whiskas pouches. None of them will eat tinned.


I hope your local supermarket doesn’t run out!! It’s 28 years since we had a cat but I do remember how picky he was.


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I hope your local supermarket doesn’t run out!! It’s 28 years since we had a cat but I do remember how picky he was.



I hope not, I'll have to feed them people, otherwise they might eat us.


----------



## tom73 (11 Mar 2020)

A city farm nearish to me has reported people are stealing loo roll from the toilets. Last few days 80 have gone and not happy with that folk are also taking the hand gel. It's a charity FFS it's now having to spend even more money on stuff which it can do with out. 
Bottles of hand gel are also going missing at a hospital in a neighbouring area. Get a grip people and stop being so selfish it's not a time for a'm alright Jack.


----------



## kingrollo (11 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> A city farm nearish to me has reported people are stealing loo roll from the toilets. Last few days 80 have gone and not happy with that folk are also taking the hand gel. It's a charity FFS it's now having to spend even more money on stuff which it can do with out.
> Bottles of hand gel are also going missing at a hospital in a neighbouring area. Get a grip people and stop being so selfish it's not a time for a'm alright Jack.


Makes you wonder if we are worth saving.!!!
There's enough loo rolls for everyone - just don't buy 70 of the buggers !


----------



## nickyboy (11 Mar 2020)

Been trawling around on Twitter as I'm trying to get a handle on what we might be facing over the coming weeks

Some really interesting info on age splits of CV cases by country and impact on mortality rates.

In Germany nearly 90% of cases are less than 60years old. But in Italy only 40% are less than 60years old (from Robert Koch Institute). Looking at typical mortality by age group that explains why Italy is running at >6% but Germany is almost zero

Question is why the difference in ages?

My guess: Germans contracted it in Italy. Mainly people of working age skiing, business etc. It got into the Italian OAP network too and they passed it to each other. Germans go home and largely interact with people also of working age

So what about UK? I guess ours originate in Italy too. But like Germany its people of working age, hence low mortality compared to Italy.

Lesson? Protect the old, vulnerable from infection if we don't want to be overwhelmed like Italy


----------



## Tail End Charlie (11 Mar 2020)

Sign outside my local butcher - "panic buyers welcome"!


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

I think the older generation in Italy is a key part of family life, so mix with the younger adults more, hence the mortality rates. I'll be keeping my distance from my mum and dad as I'm likely to get it at some point given where I work. 

I believe we've had a case in a Care Home, which isn't surprising, but could be very bad news.


----------



## rogerzilla (11 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Same as the symptoms of cycling up Winnats pass then.


If there's no bog roll, we'll ALL be "cycling up Winnats Pass". And Tagnut Pike. And Dangleberry Chimney.


----------



## pawl (11 Mar 2020)

GM said:


> Coronavirus has been found in our local toy shop...
> 
> View attachment 507985


Somthing like that has been rattling round are washing machine for years Were doomed.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Been trawling around on Twitter as I'm trying to get a handle on what we might be facing over the coming weeks
> 
> Some really interesting info on age splits of CV cases by country and impact on mortality rates.
> 
> ...



You've got to be really careful with stats like that as the proportion will depend on the testing strategy. 

I read earlier in the outbreak that one of the reasons Germany numbers were so low was because they were hardly testing anyone. 

The criteria applied to choose who to test will make a big difference to the distribution of those who test positive.


----------



## rogerzilla (11 Mar 2020)

UK numbers will leap soon because the NHS is increasing the number of tests massively: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51814874
This makes it hard to estimate the true exponential growth rate here. It looks like a doubling about every three days but that could change. Italy is seeing a doubling about every 2 days.


----------



## Mike_P (11 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Just in from Wimpers....
> 
> Just been to Sainsburys in Deal. Hardly any cat food, pasta, toilet roll, tissues or cold remedies. The shop was eerily empty. It is madness.


Just been to mine, didn't look down the loo roll isle but the rest of the store was decimated in places but then it always is, never known a shop constantly so badly stocked so it's difficult to say whether parts are due to panic buying or simply Sainsbury's own incompetence, I presume the latter in the case of frozen mash. A trip there is more in hope than expectation.


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

The large Asda in Hulme has no loo roll !


----------



## PK99 (11 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Just been to mine, didn't look down the loo roll isle but the rest of the store was decimated in places but then it always is, never known a shop constantly so badly stocked so it's difficult to say whether parts are due to panic buying or simply Sainsbury's own incompetence, I presume the latter in the case of frozen mash. A trip there is more in hope than expectation.



Frozen mash, is that a thing?


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Frozen mash, is that a thing?



Is that the bulky version of the space age freeze dried SMASH from the 70's.


----------



## PK99 (11 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Is that the bulky version of the space age freeze dried SMASH from the 70's.


🤮😱🤢


----------



## fossyant (11 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> 🤮😱🤢



I've eaten that stuff once. Only once. Outward bound course as a 16 year old, and the organisers made us make the stuff on an open fire by the sea in Scotland. I'd have preferred a real potatoe. Our group actually made it correctly, the other groups didn't - sloppy mess. We had to eat it as we were on rations.


----------



## Pale Rider (11 Mar 2020)

I've had Smash a couple of times in the caravan.

Tastes quite good.

From that point of view, it's one of the more authentic convenience foods.

Probably loads of E numbers in it.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 Mar 2020)

> Leeds pupil sent home for selling hand sanitiser


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-51843128


----------



## tom73 (11 Mar 2020)

One big part of Italy’s problem is it’s high ageing population. It’s second in the world behind Japan.


----------



## tom73 (11 Mar 2020)

This is a fun way to get people hand washing.
https://washyourlyrics.com/
Free to use type in the song and it turns it into a hand washing poster with song words for each step. 
All power to the lad who did it.


----------



## randynewmanscat (11 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> One big part of Italy’s problem is it’s high ageing population. It’s second in the world behind Japan.


Brits with spare cash and want of a house in Umbria have noticed that.


----------



## rogerzilla (11 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> This is a fun way to get people hand washing.
> https://washyourlyrics.com/
> Free to use type in the song and it turns it into a hand washing poster with song words for each step.
> All power to the lad who did it.


I used "The WASP (Texas Radio And The Big Beat)" by The Doors. The results are surreal, although sadly you can stop washing just before "out here we is stoned immaculate".


----------



## Shut Up Legs (12 Mar 2020)

View: https://youtu.be/zDAmPIq29ro


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

All European travel to the US from Europe suspended by the Trumpster.

Except from the UK.

Come on, what's so special about our relationship with the US?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51846923


----------



## PK99 (12 Mar 2020)

Just listened to The Inquiry : *How did the Chinese turn the tide with coronavirus?* on BBC World Service.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csythh

Well worth listening to (23mins), among other things it looks at the measures taken to isolate the population:

How people have not left their apartments for 6 weeks,


How gates to residential compounds are locked to prevent people leaving and if they spend too much time outside around the compound Drones monitor them and tell them to return inside,


How meal deliveries arrive and are left with a note attached giving the name of Chef and delivery driver and their current temperature to show they are not infected and many other startlingly fascinating facts.


Etc

Illuminating on a number of levels - the draconian levels of population control it has taken to bring the epidemic under control and the level of population control that the Chinese state is able to mobilise at short notice and the degree of acceptance of such controls.


----------



## Salty seadog (12 Mar 2020)

rogerzilla said:


> If there's no bog roll, we'll ALL be "cycling up Winnats Pass". And Tagnut Pike. And Dangleberry Chimney.



Time for this old Chestnut again.

It's all I ever use.


----------



## lazybloke (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> All European travel to the US from Europe suspended by the Trumpster.
> 
> Except from the UK.
> 
> ...


Not providing free testing. Blaming other countries for their travel arrangements spreading a virus when it's already in the US, but not restricting movement between the states of his own country. Standard Trump denial.


----------



## Fab Foodie (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> All European travel to the US from Europe suspended by the Trumpster.
> 
> Except from the UK.
> 
> ...



As usual, Trump finds a simple bogeyman, uses a grand gesture, congratulates himself and misses the point by a country mile (quelle suprise)....


----------



## Dave7 (12 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Hardly any loo roll, tinned tomatoes, pasata, pasta etc in our local morrisons. Guess who is cooking up bolognese tonight. Got 3 tins of tomatoes and pasata. Thats all gone into the batch of bolognese.


Three tins of toms!!!! How many people are you feeding ???


----------



## fossyant (12 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Three tins of toms!!!! How many people are you feeding ???



Made 3 meals with it.


----------



## Dave7 (12 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> The large Asda in Hulme has no loo roll !


That is so rediculous. What if you are in the isle when you decide that you need a cr*p. They haven't thought that one through very well.


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

Klopp gets it.


View: https://twitter.com/FootbalIhub/status/1237839867632955395?s=20


----------



## Dave7 (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I've had Smash a couple of times in the caravan.
> 
> Tastes quite good.
> 
> ...


It was a regular part of our family diet on 70s caravan holidays. Not bad tbh.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (12 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> It was a regular part of our family diet on 70s caravan holidays. Not bad tbh.



I quite liked it, although we more often got that other powdered potato - Yoeman.


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> As usual, Trump finds a simple bogeyman, uses a grand gesture, congratulates himself and misses the point by a country mile (quelle suprise)....



Hasn't international travel played a major part in the spread of the virus?

Restricting air travel - assuming you support measures to control the spread - makes sense.

Particularly if you are in a different continent, and one with no land links to the source and main areas where the virus is taking hold.


----------



## Mo1959 (12 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> It was a regular part of our family diet on 70s caravan holidays. Not bad tbh.


We used it too..............along with these Vesta curries  I loved them. That was almost before curry really got popular.


----------



## MarkF (12 Mar 2020)

Moved my first suspect this morning, or rather experts did, l just wear a visor, mask, pinny & gloves then go ahead......opening & closing doors.

In A&E the waiting time to be seen would normally be about 4 hours, it's sub 1 on the screen, so l had a look. Out of 32 beds, 2 are occupied & both have 2 cops, so not "ill" then. A solitary bloke is in the waiting room.

No broken finger nails, no "short of breath", no " strange thoughts", amazing!


----------



## Dave7 (12 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> We used it too..............along with these Vesta curries  I loved them. That was almost before curry really got popular.


Boil in the pan Vesta curries


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> It was a regular part of our family diet on 70s caravan holidays. Not bad tbh.





glasgowcyclist said:


> I quite liked it, although we more often got that other powdered potato - Yoeman.





Mo1959 said:


> We used it too..............along with these Vesta curries  I loved them. That was almost before curry really got popular.



Phew, I was worried I might reveal myself as a mashed potato peasant.

Even my mother quite liked it.

She has a big mental block against powdered stuff because it reminds her of food rationing and shortages during and after the Second World War.

Apparently, powdered eggs were rank.

That I don't doubt.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Hasn't international travel played a major part in the spread of the virus?
> 
> Restricting air travel - assuming you support measures to control the spread - makes sense.
> 
> Particularly if you are in a different continent, and one with no land links to the source and main areas where the virus is taking hold.



Except the virus is already spreading in the US.

WHO view is that local containment is more important - modelling has shown a delay of just 3-5 days from travel bans.

Trump appears to have three motives:
(1) to appear decisive
(2) to blame foreigners
(3) to divert attention from the US response which has been very poor to date, led by him telling everyone it's a hoax.


----------



## stowie (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> All European travel to the US from Europe suspended by the Trumpster.
> 
> Except from the UK.
> 
> ...



The travel ban is from Schengen countries. So Ireland also has no ban (in EU) whilst Norway and Switzerland are included (outside EU).

The rationale is that the US immigration control cannot check whether a visitor from Schengen area has been in the COVID-19 hotspot areas within Schengen. Whereas outside Schengen our travel history is available.


----------



## Blue Hills (12 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> I think the older generation in Italy is a key part of family life, so mix with the younger adults more, hence the mortality rates.
> w



Very true. I have experience of this. The family matriarch's home was hardly ever empty. Continuous carousel visits from extended family. Family even had a rota to ensure that she was pretty much never alone.would have driven me nuts. Two of family teachers though won't have been at school for a few days now. Assume this practice has changed in current situation. One can only hope.


----------



## MichaelO (12 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> The travel ban is from Schengen countries. So Ireland also has no ban (in EU) whilst Norway and Switzerland are included (outside EU).
> 
> The rationale is that the US immigration control cannot check whether a visitor from Schengen area has been in the COVID-19 hotspot areas within Schengen. Whereas outside Schengen our travel history is available.


Just get the Eurostar to London & fly to the US. That wouldn't be flagged by US immigration!


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> (3) to divert attention from the US response which has been very poor to date, led by him telling everyone it's a hoax.


Yeah, there's that too.


View: https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1237842710674812928?s=20


----------



## stowie (12 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> Just get the Eurostar to London & fly to the US. That wouldn't be flagged by US immigration!



I'm not saying it is a _good _rationale....

Although wouldn't your passport be checked at the Eurostar terminal and therefore be made available to US immigration with the ETSA thingy? That is, they would understand that you had traveled into the UK from the Schengen area at that date.


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> 3) to divert attention from the US response which has been very poor to date, led by him telling everyone it's a hoax.



Trump probably accepts his country may lack the health infrastructure for a response similar to that in Europe.

He can only deploy what weapons he has at his disposal.

One of those is restricting international air travel.

To say the US already has it is irrelevant.

We are all locking stable doors after a number of horses have already bolted.


----------



## nickyboy (12 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Moved my first suspect this morning, or rather experts did, l just wear a visor, mask, pinny & gloves then go ahead......opening & closing doors.
> 
> In A&E the waiting time to be seen would normally be about 4 hours, it's sub 1 on the screen, so l had a look. Out of 32 beds, 2 are occupied & both have 2 cops, so not "ill" then. A solitary bloke is in the waiting room.
> 
> No broken finger nails, no "short of breath", no " strange thoughts", amazing!


Whilst I appreciate the narrative you've been pushing all along that we are overreacting I'm very pleased to hear that there is loads of capacity, at least where you work


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> To say the US already has it is irrelevant.



On the contrary, it's very relevant.


----------



## nickyboy (12 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> I'm not saying it is a _good _rationale....
> 
> Although wouldn't your passport be checked at the Eurostar terminal and therefore be made available to US immigration with the ETSA thingy? That is, they would understand that you had traveled into the UK from the Schengen area at that date.


Correct. If you're in a Shengen country now and want to go to USA after Friday there are a couple of options

1. Fly to Canada and cross into USA from there (although the US border force may be wise to this and check where you've come from)
2. Come to UK (or any non Shengen country) for 14 days before travel


----------



## Rocky (12 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> On the contrary, it's very relevant.


Spot on. Trump is diverting attention from where the real problem lies - the lack of testing in the US and his constant undermining of the CDC advice. I notice Russian flights aren’t on the ban list. Trump is a baby lashing out at his favourite targets.....the democrats, CNN, the EU.


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Correct. If you're in a Shengen country now and want to go to USA after Friday there are a couple of options
> 
> 1. Fly to Canada and cross into USA from there (although the US border force may be wise to this and check where you've come from)
> 2. Come to UK (or any non Shengen country) for 14 days before travel


3. Be a US citizen.


----------



## Sterlo (12 Mar 2020)

Is it just me or are people being selfish. PSG supposedly played their game behind closed doors last night, yet there were thousands of people congregated outside the ground. The whole idea is to minimise the spread of the virus, these idiots created a perfect way to spread them.


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

Sterlo said:


> Is it just me or are people being selfish. PSG supposedly played their game behind closed doors last night, yet there were thousands of people congregated outside the ground. The whole idea is to minimise the spread of the virus, these idiots created a perfect way to spread them.


No, it's not just you.


----------



## snorri (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> All European travel to the US from Europe suspended by the Trumpster.
> Except from the UK.
> Come on, what's so special about our relationship with the US?


Possibly the fact that expensive tours have been arranged this summer to Trump golf courses in Ireland and Scotland for members of a Trump golf club in the USA. Trump Junior is scheduled to attend throughout.
https://www.motherjones.com/politic...ric-trumps-trip-to-his-dads-european-resorts/


----------



## glasgowcyclist (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Phew, I was worried I might reveal myself as a mashed potato peasant




I well remember poking a hole in my mound of mashed potatoes and stuffing it with a big knob of butter before sealing it again. I'd eat everything else until I was sure the butter had all melted, usually indicated by it seeping out from the bottom of the spuds. Those were the days!


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

If you like lots of graphs and charts and clear explanations, this could be what you're looking for from medium.com

You might have fears today: What if I overreact? Will people laugh at me? Will they be angry at me? Will I look stupid? Won’t it be better to wait for others to take steps first? Will I hurt the economy too much?
But in 2–4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won’t criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 Mar 2020)

*Can passengers transit through the UK to the USA?*
Question from Claire Tuck



Tom Burridge
Transport correspondent
US border officials will be able to ask people for their original point of travel and if you’re connecting via the UK from a Schengen country then your airline ticket will show that.
However, if someone has travelled on the Eurostar from France or with an airline from any Schengen country and then days later catches a flight to the US from Britain, then it’s possible that might not be picked up by US officials as passports are not stamped.
But I certainly wouldn't do it. Anyone who has travelled past US border officials will know that would be a risk and US officials could ask to see your bank records for details of your previous travel.


----------



## Rocky (12 Mar 2020)

For those of you who are sympathetic to Trump.....please read this:






(Posted a month ago)





(Posted yesterday)


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I well remember poking a hole in my mound of mashed potatoes and stuffing it with a big knob of butter before sealing it again. I'd eat everything else until I was sure the butter had all melted, usually indicated by it seeping out from the bottom of the spuds. Those were the days!



I like some butter in my mash, but there are classic French mashed potato recipes that have almost as much butter as potatoes.

The thinking may be that you only have a small portion.

Unlike me - I've been known to wolf down best part of half a kilo.

https://www.foodandwine.com/recipes/mashed-potatoes-kind-robuchon-style


----------



## Fab Foodie (12 Mar 2020)

q


Pale Rider said:


> Hasn't international travel played a major part in the spread of the virus?
> 
> Restricting air travel - assuming you support measures to control the spread - makes sense.
> 
> Particularly if you are in a different continent, and one with no land links to the source and main areas where the virus is taking hold.


@roubaixtuesday has it covered. It's really too late due to internal spread and is simply gesture politics....


----------



## MarkF (12 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Whilst I appreciate the narrative you've been pushing all along that we are overreacting I'm very pleased to hear that there is loads of capacity, at least where you work



It's positive news, sorry...

People don't want to spend time in a waiting room with strangers, particularly a hospital waiting room. If this is replicated elsewhere, people only going to A&E with a genuine issue then that will release a good amount of resources to deal with the increasing virus work.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I like some butter in my mash, but there are classic French mashed potato recipes that have almost as much butter as potatoes.
> 
> The thinking may be that you only have a small portion.
> 
> ...


Aye, I've seen a recipe that calls for 3lbs potatos, 1lb butter. Scared to try it


----------



## Rocky (12 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> q
> 
> @roubaixtuesday has it covered. It's really too late due to internal spread and is simply gesture politics....


Atul Gawande absolutely nails it (for the US).....








So whom to trust.....Trump or Gawande?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> Possibly the fact that expensive tours have been arranged this summer to Trump golf courses in Ireland and Scotland for members of a Trump golf club in the USA. Trump Junior is scheduled to attend throughout.
> https://www.motherjones.com/politic...ric-trumps-trip-to-his-dads-european-resorts/



The desperate truth is that this is the most convincing explanation I've seen yet for the differentiation.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Mar 2020)

From Graun, my bold:



> Paul Hunter, Professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, points out that the science does not support Trump’s European travel ban.
> 
> In comments circulated by the Science Media Centre, he said:
> 
> ...


----------



## Blue Hills (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Trump probably accepts his country may lack the health infrastructure for a response similar to that in Europe.
> 
> He can only deploy what weapons he has at his disposal.
> 
> ...


I fear you are crediting trump with any reason and logic beyond his own twisted severely damaged ego pale rider.
Any scientists medical folk anticipating being in a donut with him are in front of a mirror frantically practicing their blank giving nothing away looks. Getting family members to subject them to sudden shocks and trying not to react.
It's in the US and trump's pronouncements are going to become increasingly bizarre.
I mean why exempt the UK from the ban?


----------



## fossyant (12 Mar 2020)

Just hoping my colleague's husband didn't pick anything up in Italy. He's self isolating at home, but not so sure the NHS advice to my colleague for her to carry on until symptoms show is all that sound.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (12 Mar 2020)

CDC sat on its hands for over a month:


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (12 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Atul Gawande absolutely nails it (for the US).....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The more pertinent question, is whose method do we trust? Hongkong/Singapore's or that of our leaders in the West?


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

One theory doing the rounds is that the uk is taking a "herd approach"

The goal is that this rips through the country - and those that survive (mostly) will have immunity 

The process is to manage \ limit the number of concurrent infections - so the NHS can cope with the 15-20% who require treatment.

Sorta makes sense - but a 56 year asthmatic living not far from Dudley - its a bit concerning !!!


----------



## MichaelO (12 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> CDC sat on its hands for over a month:
> 
> View attachment 508071


What a pathetically low number of tests for a country the size of the US!!!


----------



## icowden (12 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> What a pathetically low number of tests for a country the size of the US!!!


The US has some particular problems due to er... Trump! Firstly, if your health insurance doesn't cover testing, then you have to pay for it. Many people cannot or will not pay to be tested. Secondly USA has no such thing as statutory sick pay, so social distancing measures such as making people stay home on sick pay will be impossible.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> One theory doing the rounds is that the uk is taking a "herd approach"
> 
> The goal is that this rips through the country - and those that survive (mostly) will have immunity
> 
> ...



Yeah this is what I read Milkfloat and others have been talking about.

The major flaw is in the second paragraph above. If and when we "let" it rip through the country, well over a million would have died in UK, as I explained previously. How on earth, as a leader of the country, do you explain your "result" to your countrymen and the world at large, when c3000 died in China with a population of 1.4 billions?

I am also aware of the argument that ok once it is controlled in one country, it can come back in waves. Indeed it can. For example, they identified 9 in Hongkong today, but 6 were everybody in a group who came back from holiday in Egypt (think about that - country is hardly ever mentioned regrading the virus), one other is a Cathay Pacific air hostess on their flight. What that means, is that foreign travels, between destination countries of questionable status, will never be the same again. The wider implication, is that the way people travel, work, conduct their daily business, monitoring their health etc. will all have to adapt and change until a vaccine is found and become widely available. The only alternative, since it would overwhelm ICU capacity, is 5% or more of the population dead. The choice is kind of simple...


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

Daily Express making things up, again.

A study has not claimed the new coronavirus was ‘genetically engineered for efficient spread in humans’

This week the Daily Express claimed a study found the new coronavirus may have been genetically engineered to spread in the human population.

Full fact link


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Daily Express making things up, again.
> 
> A study has not claimed the new coronavirus was ‘genetically engineered for efficient spread in humans’
> This week the Daily Express claimed a study found the new coronavirus may have been genetically engineered to spread in the human population.
> ...



That paper is a feckin outrage - Everyday without fail since September that have predicted Armageddon type weather - now sure anyone can get the weather wrong now and again - but the sad feckas just want people to click the link !!!! - To hell with the weather will actually be like !!!

I haven't read the above - but my guess is thats its all conjecture and speculation - which in turn causes people to panic


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Yeah this is what I read Milkfloat and others have been talking about.
> 
> The major flaw is in the second paragraph above. If and when we "let" it rip through the country, well over a million would have died in UK, as I explained previously. How on earth, as a leader of the country, do you explain your "result" to your countrymen and the world at large, when c3000 died in China with a population of 1.4 billions?
> 
> I am also aware of the argument that ok once it is controlled in one country, it can come back in waves. Indeed it can. For example, they identified 9 in Hongkong today, but 6 were everybody in a group who came back from holiday in Egypt (think about that - country is hardly ever mentioned regrading the virus), one other is a Cathay Pacific air hostess on their flight. What that means, is that foreign travels, between destination countries of questionable status, will never be the same again. The wider implication, is that the way people travel, work, conduct their daily business, monitoring their health etc. will all have to adapt and change until a vaccine is found and become widely available. The only alternative, since it would overwhelm ICU capacity, is 5% or more of the population dead. The choice is kind of simple...



Yeah I wonder if checking your temperature in morning will be as normal as brushing your teeth


----------



## MichaelO (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> One theory doing the rounds is that the uk is taking a "herd approach"
> 
> The goal is that this rips through the country - and those that survive (mostly) will have immunity
> 
> ...


That is a rumour based on Johnson's comments the other day. Check the facts - he didn't say that! https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnson-coronavirus-this-morning/


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHewitt/status/1238011076773584897?s=20


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> That is a rumour based on Johnson's comments the other day. Check the facts - he didn't say that! https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnson-coronavirus-this-morning/



Brings me back to the point that I and others have made - What exactly are we doing right now to delay the spread ? - as far as I can see we are just telling people to wash there hands


----------



## PK99 (12 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Yeah this is what I read Milkfloat and others have been talking about.
> 
> The major flaw is in the second paragraph above. If and when we "let" it rip through the country, well over a million would have died in UK, as I explained previously. How on earth, as a leader of the country, do you explain your "result" to your countrymen and the world at large, when c3000 died in China with a population of 1.4 billions?
> 
> I am also aware of the argument that ok once it is controlled in one country, it can come back in waves. Indeed it can. For example, they identified 9 in Hongkong today, but 6 were everybody in a group who came back from holiday in Egypt (think about that - country is hardly ever mentioned regrading the virus), one other is a Cathay Pacific air hostess on their flight. What that means, is that foreign travels, between destination countries of questionable status, will never be the same again. The wider implication, is that the way people travel, work, conduct their daily business, monitoring their health etc. will all have to adapt and change until a vaccine is found and become widely available. The only alternative, since it would overwhelm ICU capacity, is 5% or more of the population dead. The choice is kind of simple...



I've just re-read the posts from @Milkfloat and you seem to misrepresent or misunderstand what he is saying.

Far from advocating "let it rip" he seems to support the delay and spread the peak approach being adopted. It is inevitable that there will be a UK epidemic, but the later that happens the better will be the preparations, and the lower the peak demand on medical services.

Remember China has done nothing therapeutic to attack the disease itself, all they have done is reduce the R0 factor (measure of how many each case further infects from over 3 to well below 1 by utterly draconian restrictions of movement and interaction of people.

"Let it rip" is incendiary language akin to scaremongering


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Brings me back to the point that I and others have made - What exactly are we doing right now to delay the spread ? - as far as I can see we are just telling people to wash there hands



Handwashing does, trivial as it sounds, have a major impact on delaying spread and minimising peak.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (12 Mar 2020)

*"People in Scotland should prepare for major changes to their lives as the response to the coronavirus is stepped up"*

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51851341


> Asked if people in Scotland are going to have to prepare for major changes to their lives in the coming days, Mr Jack answered: "Yes, I'm afraid they are."



The rest of my family is already working from home but that's not feasible for me. Won't matter much really as I've got two weeks' leave coming this weekend so I'll be in the house. Got plenty of food, just need to get enough in for the cats for a few weeks.


----------



## icowden (12 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Daily Express making things up, again.



It should always be remembered that the Daily Express has not been a newspaper since it was owned by Richard "Dirty Des" Desmond. The front page is entirely based on finding a headline that might make someone buy the paper. Bad weather is the default go to headline if there isn't a Royal story in the offing. It used to be Princess Diana but I think they have stopped those now.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Handwashing does, trivial as it sounds, have a major impact on delaying spread and minimising peak.



Does it ? - Everyone I know is washing there hands like never before - but the cases are still going up - I am wondering if the transmission is more in airborne droplets


----------



## MichaelO (12 Mar 2020)

Ireland have shut all schools, cancelling public events and encourage WFH. UK has to follow suit, surely?!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Does it ? - Everyone I know is washing there hands like never before - but the cases are still going up - I am wondering if the transmission is more in airborne droplets



It reduces transmission, doesn't stop it.


----------



## Fab Foodie (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I like some butter in my mash, but there are classic French mashed potato recipes that have almost as much butter as potatoes.
> 
> The thinking may be that you only have a small portion.
> 
> ...


The Statins thread is that way---------->


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (12 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> I've just re-read the posts from @Milkfloat and you seem to misrepresent or misunderstand what he is saying.
> 
> Far from advocating "let it rip" he seems to support the delay and spread the peak approach being adopted. It is inevitable that there will be a UK epidemic, but the later that happens the better will be the preparations, and the lower the peak demand on medical services.
> 
> Remember China has done nothing therapeutic to attack the disease itself, all they have done is reduce the R0 factor (measure of how many each case further infects from over 3 to well below 1 by utterly draconian restrictions of movement and interaction of people.



Don't think I did. See:



Milkfloat said:


> It has worked for now, but what happens when they relax their controls? They cannot stay hidden forever.
> 
> The only way this gets resolved is if enough people get infected and build immunity or a vaccine is given to the whole world. Give it a few years and this will just be another strain of flu added to the yearly jab.



He was casting doubts on the control measures in the East, was he not? But It has not "worked for now" here - unless I am mistaken, few believe anymore our "waiting", to instigate social distancing e.g., is anything but squandering opportunity available.

"The only way this gets resolved is if enough people get infected and build immunity" - this is patently nonsense. This is what will kill over a million in UK.

You disagree?


----------



## nickyboy (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Does it ? - Everyone I know is washing there hands like never before - but the cases are still going up - I am wondering if the transmission is more in airborne droplets


All the science backs up the assertion that washing your hands often is the best thing to do

I do worry that people in the main don't realise how serious this is. I was in my local Tesco this morning. I wiped down the handle of the trolley with an alcohol wipe and used my knuckle to key in my PIN to pay. I was the only person I saw taking any mitigation steps.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> *"People in Scotland should prepare for major changes to their lives as the response to the coronavirus is stepped up"*
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51851341
> 
> ...



I think the most draconian it will get is that only food shops are open - restaurants, cafes etc , cinemas, football matches , will all be closed. 

If you read the lockdown in Italy is close to what I have described above - thats quite a distance from the lockdown in wuhan where people are physically confined in doors and have been 6 weeks with food and essentials delivered to them.

I can see thermometers for Covid becoming what condoms were for Aids


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> All the science backs up the assertion that washing your hands often is the best thing to do
> 
> I do worry that people in the main don't realise how serious this is. I was in my local Tesco this morning. I wiped down the handle of the trolley with an alcohol wipe and used my knuckle to key in my PIN to pay. I was the only person I saw taking any mitigation steps.



Yes the science in general back it up - but handwashing for COVID ? - sure it will have some impact - but are contaminated surfaces the real spread here or is it people spreading it via airborne droplets ?


----------



## marinyork (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Does it ? - Everyone I know is washing there hands like never before - but the cases are still going up - I am wondering if the transmission is more in airborne droplets



Seen very few people washing their hands like never before as you put it. A guy at uni spent about ten seconds, thwarted by the taps that squirt out 1 seconds water at a time.


----------



## MichaelO (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I can see thermometers for Covid becoming what condoms were for Aids


There's a crass joke in there somewhere


----------



## Fab Foodie (12 Mar 2020)

Meanwhile, we are now having to offload shipments from our Italian factory to our EU customers to ensure that a driver from Italy does not enter our EU customer's factories. This is today's fun and games.
Should long-distance lorry drivers be leaving Italy at all? Should we be marshaling loads at the borders?


----------



## Seevio (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I can see thermometers for Covid becoming what condoms were for Aids


Zurely there are better places to put a thermometer?


----------



## Fab Foodie (12 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> All the science backs up the assertion that washing your hands often is the best thing to do
> 
> I do worry that people in the main don't realise how serious this is. I was in my local Tesco this morning. I wiped down the handle of the trolley with an alcohol wipe and used my knuckle to key in my PIN to pay. I was the only person I saw taking any mitigation steps.


One person on the plane last night was alcohol wiping her seat and environs before sitting down....


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yes the science in general back it up - but handwashing for COVID ? - sure it will have some impact - but are contaminated surfaces the real spread here or is it people spreading it via airborne droplets ?



Anybody who thinks washing their hands while singing Happy Birthday is adequate for now should read this.


----------



## Fab Foodie (12 Mar 2020)

Anyhow, yesterday I woke in Ireland with a mildly sore throat and a headache (which may have been attributable to a surfeit of Jamesons). Instead of going direct to the office (of about 800 peeps) I worked in my hotel room. After establishing that a surfeit of Jamesons was not the cause I took the next flight back home ASAP. Dublin airport mostly empty, lounge empty, flight less than half-full, Heathrow V. empty.
Still have a sore throat and very very mild sense of fever.
Cancelled weekend social events until have seen what develops. Wimps is not working until we know what the score is. Neighbour is Nurse and bf a 111 Paramedic so will take advice.
Was at a dinner party last Sunday sat next to a fellow with a mild cold, assuming that's the case until full 'Coronavirus symptoms' emerge or not. 
Well enough to drive a laptop at the moment....


----------



## marinyork (12 Mar 2020)

The Express is rumouring lengthy school but not university closures. Bonkers if true.


----------



## steve292 (12 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Anyhow, yesterday I woke in Ireland with a mildly sore throat and a headache (which may have been attributable to a surfeit of Jamesons). Instead of going direct to the office (of about 800 peeps) I worked in my hotel room. After establishing that a surfeit of Jamesons was not the cause I took the next flight back home ASAP. Dublin airport mostly empty, lounge empty, flight less than half-full, Heathrow V. empty.
> Still have a sore throat and very very mild sense of fever.
> Cancelled weekend social events until have seen what develops. Wimps is not working until we know what the score is. Neighbour is Nurse and bf a 111 Paramedic so will take advice.
> Was at a dinner party last Sunday sat next to a fellow with a mild cold, assuming that's the case until full 'Coronavirus symptoms' emerge or not.
> Well enough to drive a laptop at the moment....


Good luck. I wish you well


----------



## Accy cyclist (12 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I do worry that people in the main don't realise how serious this is. I was in my local Tesco this morning. I wiped down the handle of the trolley with an alcohol wipe and used my knuckle to key in my PIN to pay. I was the only person I saw taking any mitigation steps.


I've been doing similar for years. People thought i was a bit weird and 'obsessive',but now they know why...or at least i hope they do!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The Express is rumouring lengthy school but not university closures. Bonkers if true.



You're reading the Express?

Bonkers if true


----------



## Milkfloat (12 Mar 2020)

I will try and make clear what I wrote up-thread. I believe the 'plan' (if there is actually one) is to try to balance the short term health hit with the longer term health and economy hit. If the Government shuts down the whole country then a number of problems arise. The economic damage would be huge, we would be delaying the inevitable as even if we self isolate, sooner or later we have to get out of isolation as I guess 2 weeks would be the maximum we could cope with, when we come out of isolation Bang! infection rates go up. In addition, if we isolate we potentially cause more problems, if the schools close, then Mummy and Daddy who should be at work in the NHS or care homes are now unable to come to work as they are looking after Jnr. If Mummy and Daddy have their parents around then perhaps Jnr goes to Grandma for a while. Grandma is just the person you don't want an infected kid around.

I think the plan is a wait and see approach to try not to have a big peak of cases so the NHS is overwhelmed, but also is not sat around doing nothing. It is simply trying to use the limited resources they have. The bonus is that economically that works best too.

However, I think that we are possibly beyond that control stage as the government needs to be able to predict and model weeks into the future and I guess their models are at the point of trying to put the brakes on the spread. Sooner rather than later we batten down the hatches.


----------



## marinyork (12 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> You're reading the Express?
> 
> Bonkers if true



Not really. I read Italian news and tv extensively the last two weeks. That's way more sensationalist. Sadly much of it was true, which lethargic journalists and agents of the British state were regretably slow to report.


----------



## fossyant (12 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Seen very few people washing their hands like never before as you put it. A guy at uni spent about ten seconds, thwarted by the taps that squirt out 1 seconds water at a time.



One of our Nursing Lecturers commented how bad the student hygiene was in the toilets. Still not washing hands. My hands are now incredibly dry. Other than going round in a hazmat suit, no amount of washing/sanitiser is going to help


----------



## Accy cyclist (12 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The Express is rumouring lengthy school but not university closures. Bonkers if true.


The DM is actually reporting on how much some elderly victims (i won't link it) houses are worth. Their obsession with wealth is offensive! They seem to think that wealthy people dying is worse than the less well off dying. One sentence in a report said "The elderly couple(in Italy)left behind a villa worth 1.5 million Euros". I don't know if the Dm thinks this is ok,or is the paper doing it to wind people up?


----------



## marinyork (12 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> One of our Nursing Lecturers commented how bad the student hygiene was in the toilets. Still not washing hands. My hands are now incredibly dry. Other than going round in a hazmat suit, no amount of washing/sanitiser is going to help



This guy was one of the better ones.

I see it every year with winter flu, people coming in, presenteeism, people catching stuff which very broadly has a link to how much handwashing or other things. You can still catch things, it just really doesn't help.


----------



## Johnno260 (12 Mar 2020)

whatever the government do will be wrong to someone, it's a crap situation made worse by bad reporting, scaremongers and panic buying.

It's a fine line between a good isolation period and totally messing it up, too soon, or too short and it won't be effective.

I don't envy anyone having to deal with this issue on a national/international level.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Mar 2020)

Has this been posted? An interactive map for Corona Virus is now available from Public Health England, similar to the Worldwide one posted yesterday.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14


----------



## Dave7 (12 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> *"People in Scotland should prepare for major changes to their lives as the response to the coronavirus is stepped up"*
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51851341
> 
> ...


Never mind food. You can live without food. Have you got enough bog roll ?


----------



## PeteXXX (12 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Never mind food. You can live without food. Have you got enough bog roll ?


Nothing in... Nothing out


----------



## Levo-Lon (12 Mar 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> Nothing in... Nothing out



Always producing something..


----------



## Blue Hills (12 Mar 2020)

icowden said:


> The US has some particular problems due to er... Trump! Firstly, if your health insurance doesn't cover testing, then you have to pay for it. Many people cannot or will not pay to be tested. Secondly USA has no such thing as statutory sick pay, so social distancing measures such as making people stay home on sick pay will be impossible.


To be fair the issue goes way way back from trump. I well remember telling someone about 35 years ago that i didn't consider the states civilised because of its health system.
But yes trump is a complete twat.
Be interesting to see how this affects his popularity. Here's hoping for some decent reporting.
Any of our US members on here in a position to tell us about US media coverage of his increasingly batshit comments?


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (12 Mar 2020)

Milkfloat said:


> I will try and make clear what I wrote up-thread. I believe the 'plan' (if there is actually one) is to try to balance the short term health hit with the longer term health and economy hit. If the Government shuts down the whole country then a number of problems arise. The economic damage would be huge, we would be delaying the inevitable as even if we self isolate, sooner or later we have to get out of isolation as I guess 2 weeks would be the maximum we could cope with, when we come out of isolation Bang! infection rates go up. In addition, if we isolate we potentially cause more problems, if the schools close, then Mummy and Daddy who should be at work in the NHS or care homes are now unable to come to work as they are looking after Jnr. If Mummy and Daddy have their parents around then perhaps Jnr goes to Grandma for a while. Grandma is just the person you don't want an infected kid around.
> 
> I think the plan is a wait and see approach to try not to have a big peak of cases so the NHS is overwhelmed, but also is not sat around doing nothing. It is simply trying to use the limited resources they have. The bonus is that economically that works best too.
> 
> However, I think that we are possibly beyond that control stage as the government needs to be able to predict and model weeks into the future and I guess their models are at the point of trying to put the brakes on the spread. Sooner rather than later we batten down the hatches.



I agree with your last paragraph, but I think the sentiment described above that, that delaying isolation / social distancing can somehow be economically or socially advantageous, is fundamentally flawed.

This thing is like a freight train. The only way to control it, involves isolation/social distancing. If anybody disagrees, please do tell.

So then the question is when to implement, not whether. Then the issue is, are we better off implementing it early, so that fewer people will die, more medical capacity will be available to deal with all the traditional ailments, so that we can come out in weeks or months with fewer scars on our back, or the opposite?

Waiting would of course give rise to more cases, less medical care available to cases, more case leakages, bigger problem, harder to fix, longer problem will last, more difficult to return to any degree of normality etc. etc.

I would have thought the choice is simple. What on earth do we gain by waiting?


----------



## classic33 (12 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Anyhow, yesterday I woke in Ireland with a mildly sore throat and a headache (which may have been attributable to a surfeit of Jamesons). Instead of going direct to the office (of about 800 peeps) I worked in my hotel room. After establishing that a surfeit of Jamesons was not the cause I took the next flight back home ASAP. Dublin airport mostly empty, lounge empty, flight less than half-full, Heathrow V. empty.
> Still have a sore throat and very very mild sense of fever.
> Cancelled weekend social events until have seen what develops. Wimps is not working until we know what the score is. Neighbour is Nurse and bf a 111 Paramedic so will take advice.
> Was at a dinner party last Sunday sat next to a fellow with a mild cold, assuming that's the case until full 'Coronavirus symptoms' emerge or not.
> Well enough to drive a laptop at the moment....


Ireland has just announced new measures to combat the spread, following the first recorded death from the virus.

Schools & colleges close, until the end of the month at the end of today.

You may not have been allowed to travel with the new rules in place.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Mar 2020)




----------



## Archie_tect (12 Mar 2020)

Idly curious to see the Venn diagram of the English cases showing "those who've tested +ve" against "those who've been skiing" and "those who've been on a winter cruise sailing from Southampton"...


----------



## Blue Hills (12 Mar 2020)

In italy a bloke nabbed by the police for going out on his bike.
https://www.sardiniapost.it/cronaca...ci-due-volte-denunciato-un-57enne-di-samassi/
Have ridden round there a fair bit.
Can't see this happening here.


----------



## DaveReading (12 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Anybody who thinks washing their hands while singing Happy Birthday is adequate for now should read this.



Nobody is claiming that washing hands guarantees not being infected. But you knew that.


----------



## slowmotion (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I like some butter in my mash, but there are classic French mashed potato recipes





Fab Foodie said:


> The Statins thread is that way---------->


I think you are going to need a bit more than a few statins if you follow the Robouchon recipe with a 2:1 potato to butter ratio.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Mar 2020)

South Korea press briefing on Covid-19


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=lGHZSwj1FpI&feature=emb_logo


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (12 Mar 2020)

DaveReading said:


> RecordAceFromNew said:
> 
> 
> > Anybody who thinks washing their hands while singing Happy Birthday is *adequate for now* should read this.
> ...



The point I made, is whether it is adequate for now. My point is it is not and indeed never was, but unfortunately hitherto for all intent and purpose it is all the government has been telling us to do. In fact Ministers have been telling us to just go about our business as normal.


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> In fact Ministers have been telling us to just go about our business as normal.









Photoshop of a still from Jaws where Mayor Vaughn tries to convince everyone to carry on as normal, Boris Johnson was not in Jaws, his inclusion here is satirical.


----------



## Blue Hills (12 Mar 2020)

By the by, on the question asked up above by myself and @Mo1959 which I don't think we had an answer to.

Beeb did a bit earlier where they read out viewers' questions - often the best way of getting the answers that matter.

The view of the beeb medical correspondent was that if you got the thing, then yes, you would be protected for quite some time afterwards.

EDIT - it's now on their web guidance:
*2. If you recover from coronavirus are you immune? RubyRed on Twitter.*
Well, it is too soon to tell. This virus has only been around since the end of December, but from experience with other viruses and coronaviruses you should have antibodies to the virus which will protect you.
With Sars and other coronaviruses we tended not to see reinfection. Now there are some reports from China of people who are released from hospital subsequently testing positive but we're not sure about those tests.
However, the key thing was those people were no longer infectious.

which is good news - particularly that last sentence.


----------



## pawl (12 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> We used it too..............along with these Vesta curries  I loved them. That was almost before curry really got popular.



I liked the Paella.Think that was Vesta.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

I have heard todays upgrade might be to tell everyone with a cold\cough AND a temperature to stay at home - with the emphasis on temperature

Can anyone recommend a decent thermometer from Amazon ?


----------



## cookiemonster (12 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The Express is rumouring lengthy school but not university closures. Bonkers if true.



Schools in HK are shut until 20/4, that’s 3 months.


----------



## nickyboy (12 Mar 2020)

Speaking of instant mash, we bought a packet of this last week. £1. Tried it this week... delicious. Almost same as fresh mash. Nothing like the sloppy Smash my mum used to give me. Bought a few more packets this week


----------



## pawl (12 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Never mind food. You can live without food. Have you got enough bog roll ?



Any suggestions what you spread on the bog roll.
Crap question.


----------



## Blue Hills (12 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Speaking of instant mash, we bought a packet of this last week. £1. Tried it this week... delicious. Almost same as fresh mash. Nothing like the sloppy Smash my mum used to give me. Bought a few more packets this week
> 
> View attachment 508114


boil a british spud - mash it with some garlic.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (12 Mar 2020)

I think we need a separate mashed potato thread, there's clearly enough interest!


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Mar 2020)

Inside the La Paz hospital in Madrid they’re treating more than 100 Covid-19 patients.

A nurse involved in their care told us the hospital was under intense pressure, a gymnasium had been turned into an emergency ward with 20 extra beds, staff were exhausted and some of them didn’t have enough protective equipment, leading them to be afraid they’d be infected themselves.

Outside, many of those coming and going - hospital staff and visitors - are wearing face masks.

The pace of Spain’s outbreak is accelerating. There are now 2,900 cases, up by more than 700 in a day. Equality Minister Irene Montero has tested positive. So her partner, Deputy Prime Minister Pablo Iglesias, is under quarantine, and the entire government is being tested along with Spain’s royal family as all may have been exposed.

The Real Madrid football team are in quarantine too and all football matches have been cancelled for two weeks.

Still there is a fear that the situation in Spain is perhaps a week behind what’s happening in Italy, and far from the peak of infections here.

(BBC website)


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Yeah this is what I read Milkfloat and others have been talking about.
> 
> The major flaw is in the second paragraph above. If and when we "let" it rip through the country, well over a million would have died in UK, as I explained previously. How on earth, as a leader of the country, do you explain your "result" to your countrymen and the world at large, when c3000 died in China with a population of 1.4 billions?
> 
> I am also aware of the argument that ok once it is controlled in one country, it can come back in waves. Indeed it can. For example, they identified 9 in Hongkong today, but 6 were everybody in a group who came back from holiday in Egypt (think about that - country is hardly ever mentioned regrading the virus), one other is a Cathay Pacific air hostess on their flight. What that means, is that foreign travels, between destination countries of questionable status, will never be the same again. The wider implication, is that the way people travel, work, conduct their daily business, monitoring their health etc. will all have to adapt and change until a vaccine is found and become widely available. The only alternative, since it would overwhelm ICU capacity, is 5% or more of the population dead. The choice is kind of simple...


I love your optimistic view on life


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Inside the La Paz hospital in Madrid they’re treating more than 100 Covid-19 patients.
> 
> A nurse involved in their care told us the hospital was under intense pressure, a gymnasium had been turned into an emergency ward with 20 extra beds, staff were exhausted and some of them didn’t have enough protective equipment, leading them to be afraid they’d be infected themselves.
> 
> ...


Happy days, currently in Spain. It is warm and sunny


----------



## fossyant (12 Mar 2020)

My Uni is planning no face to face teaching after 27th March, if not earlier (all moved on-line). Exams currently going ahead, but this may change and alternative assessment is available for most courses. Even if the Government is doing bugger all, we're getting ready.


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Happy days


?


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> ?



I expect he's happily self isolating in his motorhome.


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I expect he's happily self isolating in his motorhome.


Quite possibly, it seems an odd response given the tone of the post though.


----------



## randynewmanscat (12 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Illuminating on a number of levels - the draconian levels of population control it has taken to bring the epidemic under control and the level of population control that the Chinese state is able to mobilise at short notice and the degree of acceptance of such controls.


Indeed. Any country foolish enough to wage war on China has their work cut out for them.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 Mar 2020)

My sister's a nurse at Ninewells. After an initial shortage of face masks, an announcement was made that they should go to Room X and get properly fitted masks. 

By the time they got there, all the porters, office staff, joiners & builders working around the site, cleaners etc had snaffled them all.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I expect he's happily self isolating in his motorhome.


You got it. 

No TV, so, good to have some entertainment.

I am taking great care to avoid throwing myself off any high bridges/cliffs/buildings, and, drinking copious amounts of Rioja


----------



## Dave7 (12 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Any suggestions what you spread on the bog roll.
> Crap question.


As @Blue Hills suggests..... potato with garlic


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Any of our US members on here in a position to tell us about US media coverage of his increasingly batshit comments?



Trump's measures are based on advice from his Corona Virus task force.

There's a video online of the head doctor recommending, among other things, restrictions on international travel.

Of course, the Yankee doctor might be a quack, and so might everyone else in his team.

And as a special advisor to Trump, he probably won't last as long as the outbreak he's been called in to deal with.

But it's hardly fair or sensible to criticise Trump for following the advice of the doctors hired to provide it.


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> and, drinking copious amounts of Rioja



Careful, you don't know where those grape trampling feet have been.


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Trump's measures are based on advice from his Corona Virus task force.
> 
> There's a video online of the head doctor recommending, among other things, restrictions on international travel.
> 
> ...


He used to have a specific department that he could have got advice from;

In May 2018, the top White House official in charge of the U.S. response to pandemics left the administration. Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer was the senior director of global health and biodefense on the National Security Council and oversaw global health security issues, a specialty that had been bolstered under President Barack Obama.
After Ziemer’s departure, the global health team was reorganized as part of an effort by then-National Security Adviser John Bolton. Meanwhile, Tom Bossert, a homeland security adviser who recommended strong defenses against disease and biological warfare, was reportedly pushed out by Bolton in 2018. Neither White House official or their teams, which were responsible for coordinating the U.S. response to pandemic outbreaks across agencies, have been replaced during the past two years.

I'll keep criticising him I think.


----------



## randynewmanscat (12 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Daily Express making things up, again.
> 
> A study has not claimed the new coronavirus was ‘genetically engineered for efficient spread in humans’
> This week the Daily Express claimed a study found the new coronavirus may have been genetically engineered to spread in the human population.
> ...


Oh the faithfull and the Russian visitors over at the Express are still lapping up the bat story too, they need shutting down for the way they are playing this one. The "Russian bombers buzzed the queens house" crap is almost harmless but sailing close to Sputnik news territory is not.


----------



## randynewmanscat (12 Mar 2020)

Just in case its not been posted pages ago.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU0d8kpybVg


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

Seems to me event cancellations are also snowballing.

The London Bike Show has gone the journey, and it looks like the Australian GP is going the same way.

I've lost track of the number of football matches either cancelled or to be played behind closed doors.

The Euro football tournament is under threat, and I read somewhere the skids might be under the tennis at Wimbledon.

Any others?


----------



## fossyant (12 Mar 2020)

Just been told by the Finance Director to work from home tomorrow


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

Meanwhile;


View: https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1238126303238410243?s=20


With no guarantee that the aid package will have been voted through before they toddle off.


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Seems to me event cancellations are also snowballing.
> 
> The London Bike Show has gone the journey, and it looks like the Australian GP is going the same way.
> 
> ...



A post has just been made elsewhere to say two of the Spring Classics bike races have been cancelled.

From a purely selfish point of view that's a pity because they made good viewing.


----------



## randynewmanscat (12 Mar 2020)

There are two houses nearby that are normally occupied during the same weeks each year and this week is not one of them. The owners of both are from Paris and late middle age I guess. I saw the couple from one of the places unpacking a car that was rammed with groceries and then wondered if they had come down here to hole up for a while.
You can only hide from a virus for so long but I understand people who have the choice and means wanting to see how the wind blows if that is what they have come to do.


----------



## Blue Hills (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Trump's measures are based on advice from his Corona Virus task force.
> 
> There's a video online of the head doctor recommending, among other things, restrictions on international travel.
> 
> ...


sorry pale rider, trump has said so many barmy things on the issue (vids available - did you see the one with him in his baseball hat where he related how amazed some specialists had supposedly been by his profound knowledge of the subject?) without bothering to consult professional advice. He makes it up as he goes along to play to his imagined audience.
Take that latest announcement - he said that trade/goods would be blocked.
Then went onto twitter to say that this in fact was not the case at all.

I'd love to know what the medical expert view was on why Britain was excluded from the ban.

Yes Britain isn't in schengen but it is very open.
(though he probably didn't grasp its diversity and open-ness when he dropped into London.


----------



## Rezillo (12 Mar 2020)

I wonder if the countries experiencing swamping of their intensive care services are categorising the deaths of non-covid19 patients that must result from that? It's not just intensive care-eligible non-covid19 patients who might die - there's a knock-on effect that will displace routine and emergency admissions, some of whom may also die, as hospitals scramble to find beds to accommodate the most serious cases.


----------



## Blue Hills (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Seems to me event cancellations are also snowballing.
> 
> The London Bike Show has gone the journey, and it looks like the Australian GP is going the same way.
> 
> ...


well probably won't bring folk down as much but an event on classical sculpture I was going to at Kings College London has been cancelled. Subject was greek - but the bod giving the talk was Italian and so can't fly in. You can doubtless hear the wailing in the london streets from where you are sitting.
Have also had notice from another uni and a foreign embassy cultural place (they show films) that they may have to cancel stuff. Latter place tends to have quite a lot of aged folk - all squashed in rather a small room.


----------



## vickster (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Seems to me event cancellations are also snowballing.
> 
> The London Bike Show has gone the journey, and it looks like the Australian GP is going the same way.
> 
> ...


Just the small matter of the Olympics and Euro 2020 (and paralympics?)


----------



## PeteXXX (12 Mar 2020)

With (potentially) fit  healthy people self isolating, is there the possibility/probability of a birth explosion next year? 
There's only so much TV you can watch!! And it's a nice way to pass the time..


----------



## Rocky (12 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> sorry pale rider, trump has said so many barmy things on the issue (vids available - did you see the one with him in his baseball hat where he related how amazed some specialists had supposedly been by his profound knowledge of the subject?) without bothering to consult professional advice. He makes it up as he goes along to play to his imagined audience.
> Take that latest announcement - he said that trade/goods would be blocked.
> Then went onto twitter to say that this in fact was not the case at all.
> 
> ...


I'm struggling to find a medical view on why Britain was excluded. The obvious answer is that Trump owns several golf courses in the UK, which are struggling financially, and the exclusion was to protect them. I'm afraid that most of Trump's foreign and home policy decisions are about protecting or boosting his own business interests, so I wouldn't look any further than that.


----------



## Blue Hills (12 Mar 2020)

added to trump thing.

The beeb on it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51857462

includes:
@@
Announcing the ban from the Oval Office on Wednesday night, Mr Trump said: "This is the most aggressive and comprehensive effort to confront a foreign virus in modern history".

@@

Well that is clearly complete and utter bollocks.

And he describes it as a "foreign virus" - effectively bollocks and in any case it is already well established in the US.

Now why would he use the word "foriegn"?

also:

Tom Bossert, Mr Trump's former homeland security and counterterrorism adviser, criticised the ban, saying: "There's little value to European travel restrictions. Poor use of time & energy."

he then stresses that it's already well established in the states and outlines other things needed - which trump hasn't done at all.


----------



## Rocky (12 Mar 2020)

But where is Boris? As of 4.50pm this afternoon there's been no communication from Boris Johnson following the COBRA meeting. It's a good job Nicola Sturgeon was able to give a press conference straight after the meeting explaining the latest thinking on Covid19..........

Where's Boris?


----------



## Rocky (12 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> But where is Boris? As of 4.50pm this afternoon there's been no communication from Boris Johnson following the COBRA meeting. It's a good job Nicola Sturgeon was able to give a press conference straight after the meeting explaining the latest thinking on Covid19..........
> 
> Where's Boris?


Oh!! And an hour late, up he pops!! Boris is now giving a statement.......could someone tell him that Nicola has already briefed us on the COBRA meeting?


----------



## tom73 (12 Mar 2020)

For anyone who believes that effective hand washing is just plan pointless and ineffective at preventing/limiting the spread of disease. Would you be happy if the a surgeon called to see you before an operation with clearly unclean hands after coming straight from the allotment. When you ask are you going to wash that soil off they rely no it's just a bit of muck you will fine. 

If hand washing was pointless or had little effect Mrs 73 and most HCP's hands would have seen condemned as a danger to public health years ago. Never mind the list of highly infectious disease we'd both have come down with over the years.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Oh!! And an hour late, up he pops!! Boris is now giving a statement.......could someone tell him that Nicola has already briefed us on the COBRA meeting?



View: https://twitter.com/ProfTomkins/status/1238144941093728256


----------



## Rocky (12 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/ProfTomkins/status/1238144941093728256



This is also about having confidence in our leaders.......words, actions and timing are really important.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 Mar 2020)

It looked more like any excuse to kick a Tory.

Some might say Sturgeon should have paused in her mad dash to the microphone to brief her own ministers and officials first.


----------



## Rocky (12 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> It looked more like any excuse to kick a Tory.
> 
> Some might say Sturgeon should have paused in her mad dash to the microphone to brief her own ministers and officials first.


Me kick a Tory? I am the one who is a distant cousin of Margaret Thatcher (and John Major). Would I kick a Tory?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (12 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Oh!! And an hour late, up he pops!! Boris is now giving a statement.......could someone tell him that Nicola has already briefed us on the COBRA meeting?


From which I learnt policy is now at the dither and delay stage.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (12 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Has this been posted? An interactive map for Corona Virus is now available from Public Health England, similar to the Worldwide one posted yesterday.
> 
> https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14


I missed that post. Was it this one, by any chance? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Useful for a worldwide view. And for working out the relative mortality rates, country by country.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (12 Mar 2020)

I understand that the PM advised that people over 70 should not go on a cruise.
No ****, Sherlock.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 Mar 2020)

Ahhh, now I understand. The desire to work from home. The rush on loo roll...


View: https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1238074270183497728


----------



## Accy cyclist (12 Mar 2020)

'And I must level with you and the British public: more families, many more families, are going to lose loved ones before their time,' he (Boris Johnson) said.

*The last time we heard such words was at the start of WW2!*

I've said it before i know,but the presenter of the late night phone in on radios Lancashire and Manchester should be silenced in his mocking of the scientific experts and the callers to the program who talk of how dangerous this virus is. We've just been told that this virus IS NOT like the flu! Yet the presenter insists it is and it's all being blown out of proportion. His words are dangerous as he's spreading complacency among the population.


----------



## Fab Foodie (12 Mar 2020)

As countries try to close borders and limit movement, one of the emerging issues is long distance haulage and lorry drivers not being allowed to deliver or not willing to drive through certain countries....


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Ahhh, now I understand. The desire to work from home. The rush on loo roll...
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1238074270183497728



Every cloud.....


----------



## Rusty Nails (12 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> This is also about having confidence in our leaders.......words, actions and timing are really important.



And I suspect that that confidence, or lack of it, will be tribal.


----------



## Rocky (12 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> And I suspect that that confidence, or lack of it, will be tribal.


I have confidence in Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance. These are two men on the top of their game.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> For anyone who believes that effective hand washing is just plan pointless and ineffective at preventing/limiting the spread of disease. Would you be happy if the a surgeon called to see you before an operation with clearly unclean hands after coming straight from the allotment. When you ask are you going to wash that soil off they rely no it's just a bit of muck you will fine.
> 
> If hand washing was pointless or had little effect Mrs 73 and most HCP's hands would have seen condemned as a danger to public health years ago. Never mind the list of highly infectious disease we'd both have come down with over the years.


I don't think anyone is saying hand washing is pointless - the questions are:-

1.) How effective is handwashing against the spread of covid 19

2 .) Is the major method of transmission via the virus settling on hard surfaces or airborne droplets ???? - if it's the latter then handwashing will only have a limited impact.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> And I suspect that that confidence, or lack of it, will be tribal.


No question of that! It is already evident


----------



## Milzy (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't think anyone is saying hand washing is pointless - the questions are:-
> 
> 1.) How effective is handwashing against the spread of covid 19
> 
> 2 .) Is the major method of transmission via the virus settling on hard surfaces or airborne droplets ???? - if it's the latter then handwashing will only have a limited impact.


I think you've fallen a bit behind with it all now. Do you not own a smart phone?


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> I think you've fallen a bit behind with it all now. Do you not own a smart phone?


?????????
Yes I do.

What have I fallen behind with ?


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (12 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> By the by, on the question asked up above by myself and @Mo1959 which I don't think we had an answer to.
> 
> Beeb did a bit earlier where they read out viewers' questions - often the best way of getting the answers that matter.
> 
> ...



The most authoritative answer to the question I have seen is in a comment made by the US expert in the WHO team that went into China, he said they consistently said they had no example of people re-infected a second time, but presumably it is early days and things might change.

The Q&A is damning about the issue in US - man is an expert in the field, yet when he returned to US he was quarantined for 2 weeks, without ever being tested, so he couldn't go to work.


----------



## Rocky (12 Mar 2020)

Now if only we were like the Swiss


View: https://twitter.com/samgadjones/status/1238170163029118979?s=21


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Mar 2020)

Just read this on BBC site

”Trump shut down the dedicated Obama-era, White House unit that had focused on preparedness against a global pandemic.”

You couldn’t make it up.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

So we have gone from 
"For most people this is a mild illness"
To
"Many more people are going to lose loved ones before there time"


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (12 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Announcing the ban from the Oval Office on Wednesday night, Mr Trump said: "This is the most aggressive and comprehensive effort to confront a foreign virus in modern history".
> @@
> Well that is clearly complete and utter bollocks.



Have a heart. What's the poor man to do? COVID-19 hasn't even opened a twitter account for him to throw insults at...


----------



## nickyboy (12 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I have confidence in Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance. These are two men on the top of their game.


100% agree

Our epidemic appears to be a week or two behind Germany, Spain, France etc etc. That could be some fluke. Or it could be that we have the top people who have pushed it back.

So I'm happy to stand behind their advice and decisions. If they say don't close schools, we don't close schools. I'm also very pleased that Johnson is not caving in to pressure to "do something" in the face of scientific advice to the contrary

I hope when all this is over we can say "well that was shoot, but at least it wasn't as shoot as all those other countries"


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Just read this on BBC site
> 
> ”Trump shut down the dedicated Obama-era, White House unit that had focused on preparedness against a global pandemic.”
> 
> You couldn’t make it up.





Mugshot said:


> He used to have a specific department that he could have got advice from;
> 
> In May 2018, the top White House official in charge of the U.S. response to pandemics left the administration. Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer was the senior director of global health and biodefense on the National Security Council and oversaw global health security issues, a specialty that had been bolstered under President Barack Obama.
> After Ziemer’s departure, the global health team was reorganized as part of an effort by then-National Security Adviser John Bolton. Meanwhile, Tom Bossert, a homeland security adviser who recommended strong defenses against disease and biological warfare, was reportedly pushed out by Bolton in 2018. Neither White House official or their teams, which were responsible for coordinating the U.S. response to pandemic outbreaks across agencies, have been replaced during the past two years.
> ...


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So we have gone from
> "For most people this is a mild illness"
> To
> "Many more people are going to lose loved ones before there time"


Speaking as one of the elderly, with other health conditions, I don’t see any contradiction in the statement. The elderly and vulnerable are most at risk, fortunately, the majority are not elderly and/or vulnerable.

Stop panicking


----------



## Rusty Nails (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So we have gone from
> "For most people this is a mild illness"
> To
> "Many more people are going to lose loved ones before there time"



Both those are true.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Mar 2020)

Well well, endurance sports and immune system.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180420122807.htm


----------



## Milzy (12 Mar 2020)

Some moron on Facebook has just said it's a bank crash scam. I mean wtf!!?? Hopefully he will get it.


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

I agree Whitty and Vallance - the two docs either side of Boris on the telly - appear to be as well on top of it as anyone could be.

Boris insists public policy will be guided by them and their fellow scientists, so I reckon the job's a good 'un.

Excellent couple of days for the government following the well received budget.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I agree Whitty and Vallance - the two docs either side of Boris on the telly - appear to be as well on top of it as anyone could be.
> 
> Boris insists public policy will be guided by them and their fellow scientists, so I reckon the job's a good 'un.
> 
> Excellent couple of days for the government following the well received budget.


Has there been a budget? Missed that in all of the virus hysteria.


----------



## tom73 (12 Mar 2020)

On the 1st point yes it is. It’s easy to kill with soap and water.
On the 2rd point think about how many times people touch door handles and how many people go onto touch them. Then go on to touch there face all without thinking about it. Airborne droplets are an issue but where do you think they go once they settle back down. ? Unless your near enough to breath them in then then the surface they settle on is a higher risk as you have no idea if its contaminated or not. Someone coughs around you you can try and avoid them. Most hard surfacers you can’t. 

The deputy chief medical officer today talked about masks being a greater danger to general public. Pointing out people are likely to Place them down on a infected surface then put them on and end up breathing the virus in or adjusting them with unclean hands .


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Just read this on BBC site
> 
> ”Trump shut down the dedicated Obama-era, White House unit that had focused on preparedness against a global pandemic.”
> 
> You couldn’t make it up.



Trump not having a task force when it had no tasks to deal with isn't much of a criticism.

He has one now, and he's following its advice.

Seems a reasonable response to me.

Too many commentators start with the fixed view that Trump is a nutter, and then scrabble around trying to find evidence to prove it.

Start with a clean sheet and rationally assess his approach to this crisis then a different picture emerges.

Unless you think he shouldn't follow his experts' advice, but other leaders are being congratulated for doing that.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Unless you think he shouldn't follow his experts' advice



He literally called the virus a hoax. How much further from his experts advice is it possible to be?


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> He literally called the virus a hoax. How much further from his experts advice is it possible to be?



By enforcing the European travel ban, Trump is following the advice of his experts.

That is a simple matter of fact.

Sniping at Trump - won't alter that.

I see the EU is also terribly upset at not being 'consulted'.

I doubt Trump is too worried, he probably sees it as another benefit.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

So what do you if you think you have it ?

Ring 111 ? - no not anymore !!!!

Check the website for more information !

It also seems the testing will be scaled back (should make the figures look better anyway !!!)


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Speaking as one of the elderly, with other health conditions, I don’t see any contradiction in the statement. The elderly and vulnerable are most at risk, fortunately, the majority are not elderly and/or vulnerable.
> 
> Stop panicking



Losing people before there time - to me that means healthy people dying young ?


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Losing people before there time - to me that means healthy people dying young ?



Well, we are all going to die, sooner or later.

So, as one of the “vulnerable”, I interpret it to mean, instead of dying of any of the former killers of the elderly, I might go as a result of CoronaVirus.

I don’t particularly want it to be sooner, rather than later, but, I see no point in wasting what ever time I may have fretting over something beyond my control.

Just my point of view, you don’t have to agree.


----------



## Smokin Joe (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Losing people before there time - to me that means healthy people dying young ?


"Losing people before their time", in this context means those who would have gone on a bit longer without contracting the virus.


----------



## Blue Hills (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I see the EU is also terribly upset at not being 'consulted'.
> 
> I doubt Trump is too worried, he probably sees it as another benefit.


Well quite, i think we can probably all agree on that.

Out of interest why do you think he exempted the uk?

Latest reports suggest that we possibly have 10,000 infected.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Well, we are all going to die, sooner or later.
> 
> So, as one of the “vulnerable”, I interpret it to mean, instead of dying of any of the former killers of the elderly, I might go as a result of CoronaVirus.
> 
> ...


I do suffer with quite bad anxiety - so I don't find not worrying that easy.

My asthmatic son was so ill with flu a couple of years back . He was coughing up blood and couldn't even drink water at one stage. His health is my worry.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> "Losing people before their time", in this context means those who would have gone on a bit longer without contracting the virus.



Quite.


----------



## PK99 (12 Mar 2020)

Milkfloat said:


> I will try and make clear what I wrote up-thread. I believe the 'plan' (if there is actually one) is to try to balance the short term health hit with the longer term health and economy hit. If the Government shuts down the whole country then a number of problems arise. The economic damage would be huge, we would be delaying the inevitable as even if we self isolate, sooner or later we have to get out of isolation as I guess 2 weeks would be the maximum we could cope with, when we come out of isolation Bang! infection rates go up. In addition, if we isolate we potentially cause more problems, if the schools close, then Mummy and Daddy who should be at work in the NHS or care homes are now unable to come to work as they are looking after Jnr. If Mummy and Daddy have their parents around then perhaps Jnr goes to Grandma for a while. Grandma is just the person you don't want an infected kid around.
> 
> I think the plan is a wait and see approach to try not to have a big peak of cases so the NHS is overwhelmed, but also is not sat around doing nothing. It is simply trying to use the limited resources they have. The bonus is that economically that works best too.
> 
> However, I think that we are possibly beyond that control stage as the government needs to be able to predict and model weeks into the future and I guess their models are at the point of trying to put the brakes on the spread. Sooner rather than later we batten down the hatches.



Thanks for that clarification of you view.

Put differently:

Plot Daily Cases Vs time.

The area under the curve is the total number of cases and is likely to be the same whatever strategy is adopted. ie the 50-80% projection.

Those sorts of numbers are best spread over a longer time period than happening in one burst. 

How that spread is managed is difficult.


----------



## PK99 (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I do suffer with quite bad anxiety - so I don't find not worrying that easy.
> 
> My asthmatic son was so ill with flu a couple of years back . He was coughing up blood and couldn't even drink water at one stage. His health is my worry.



You anxiety is perfectly understandable, but some of your speculation appears wild.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I do suffer with quite bad anxiety - so I don't find not worrying that easy.
> 
> My asthmatic son was so ill with flu a couple of years back . He was coughing up blood and couldn't even drink water at one stage. His health is my worry.



i can sympathisewith that (anxiety), Mrs B suffers from it, not easy to deal with.

Also your son’s condition, youngest grandchild (with Downs Syndrome), has just been hospitalised with chest infection. Being in hospital is never good, but, at this time, in particular, is of concern.

Good luck.


----------



## Rocky (12 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> i can sympathisewith that (anxiety), Mrs B suffers from it, not easy to deal with.
> 
> Also your son’s condition, youngest grandchild (with Downs Syndrome), has just been hospitalised with chest infection. Being in hospital is never good, but, at this time, in particular, is of concern.
> 
> Good luck.


I do hope your grandchild gets better soon. It must be a difficult time for you all.


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> That's not a fact. You just made it up.



Made it up did I?

Try reading this quote about two of America's 'top experts':

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the widely-respected director the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield, appeared before the House Oversight Committee for a second day of questioning Thursday and backed President Trump's travel ban from much of Europe.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/gov...auci-backs-trump-travel-ban/story?id=69557417


----------



## PK99 (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't think anyone is saying hand washing is pointless - the questions are:-
> 
> 1.) How effective is handwashing against the spread of covid 19
> 
> 2 .) Is the major method of transmission via the virus settling on hard surfaces or airborne droplets ???? - if it's the latter then handwashing will only have a limited impact.



1. Partially
2. Yes

ie they dealy and spread the peak


----------



## PK99 (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So we have gone from
> "For most people this is a mild illness"
> To
> "Many more people are going to lose loved ones before there time"



Those are not contradictory statements.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

Odds on a knighthood for Chris Whitty ?


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Yes, you made it up.



One of his task force experts also backed the plan - another respected doctor.

In some news reports there was a video of the expert speaking before Trump - rather like Boris and the two guys today.


----------



## Starchivore (12 Mar 2020)

I'm off to Spain on Monday, meant to have a little trip and then arrive in Madrid a week or so later. Slightly awkward timing


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Keep making assertions without evidence.



The evidence is in the ABC News link.

Unless you are telling me that is fake news.

Trump is following the advice of his experts.

What part of that statement can you not grasp?


----------



## DaveReading (12 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> 1. Partially
> 2. Yes
> 
> ie they dealy and spread the peak



Question 2 was: Is the major method of transmission via the virus settling on hard surfaces or airborne droplets ???? 

Your answer ("Yes") wasn't terribly helpful.


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Try reading the ABC News link.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'm sorry if I'm missing something, you said he followed the advice of his experts for his announcement on Wednesday, the article says the scientists backed his decision when they were asked on Thursday. 
Aren't advised and backed different things?


----------



## tom73 (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Odds on a knighthood for Chris Whitty ?


For service to the nation at time if national emergency. Or because some feel he’s telling Boris what he wants to hear and is part of big cover up? 
In so doing putting his professional registration at risk and his self respect with his peers.

Out the 2 the former is the least we can do. I doubt once this is over he will be the only one. To be thanked by the nation.


----------



## Salty seadog (12 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Just read this on BBC site
> 
> ”Trump shut down the dedicated Obama-era, White House unit that had focused on preparedness against a global pandemic.”
> 
> You couldn’t make it up.



You don't need to make it up. Trump is on a mission to undo everything Obama did and run him down at every opportunity.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Mar 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> You don't need to make it up. Trump is on a mission to undo everything Obama did and run him down at energy opportunity.



Trump is going to kill many Americans with his stupidity over this


----------



## tom73 (12 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Trump is going to kill many Americans with his stupidity over this


And take down most of the worlds economy with them.


----------



## PaulB (12 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> For service to the nation at time if national emergency. Or because some feel he’s telling Boris what he wants to hear and is part of big cover up?
> In so doing putting his professional registration at risk and his self respect with his peers.
> 
> Out the 2 the former is the least we can do. I doubt once this is over he will be the only one. To be thanked by the nation.


He looks like a dosser to me. A real cross-the-road-if-he's-walking-towards-you type. The sort who'd be asking you if you could lend him a couple of quid. I know it's wrong to look disparagingly at a person's sartorial foibles but the newspapers weren't shy about doing this in a recent election, were they? Or with Michael Foot a few years ago. Whitty does look like a right tramp though and there's no hiding from that.


----------



## marinyork (12 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> 100% agree
> 
> Our epidemic appears to be a week or two behind Germany, Spain, France etc etc. That could be some fluke. Or it could be that we have the top people who have pushed it back.
> 
> ...



I thought it was a good press conference.

It's a shame that it wasn't communicated earlier they believe 10 to 20 times the number of people have it to those that are confirmed. 

Interesting as the football ground stuff repeated but explained in scotland they don't want medics there that could be used elsewhere.


----------



## nickyboy (12 Mar 2020)

PaulB said:


> He looks like a dosser to me. A real cross-the-road-if-he's-walking-towards-you type. The sort who'd be asking you if you could lend him a couple of quid. I know it's wrong to look disparagingly at a person's sartorial foibles but the newspapers weren't shy about doing this in a recent election, were they? Or with Michael Foot a few years ago. Whitty does look like a right tramp though and there's no hiding from that.


I can't believe that at the time of a crisis, your issue with the person driving the nation's response is how he dresses

Do you see how this makes you look?


----------



## newfhouse (12 Mar 2020)

PaulB said:


> . I know it's wrong to look disparagingly at a person's sartorial foibles


Yes, and in this case it is very wrong.


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Mar 2020)

Did he look like a dosser?

I was watching on a communal telly - appropriately in a hospital waiting area - but I didn't notice any of them looking scruffy.

I did think Boris looked smarter than usual.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Mar 2020)

Are we really Italy in 2 weeks time ?

Italy's just seemed to explode out of no where - UK seems to have been slower....

I guess with the different testing regimes it will be difficult to judge. I suspect daily deaths will become the metric rather than infection s...


----------



## Buck (12 Mar 2020)

PaulB said:


> He looks like a dosser to me. A real cross-the-road-if-he's-walking-towards-you type. The sort who'd be asking you if you could lend him a couple of quid. I know it's wrong to look disparagingly at a person's sartorial foibles but the newspapers weren't shy about doing this in a recent election, were they? Or with Michael Foot a few years ago. Whitty does look like a right tramp though and there's no hiding from that.



Oh dear. Not the most intelligent observation or comment. Very judgemental. Perhaps a period of self-reflection for you is in order?


----------



## Inertia (12 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I'm sorry if I'm missing something, you said he followed the advice of his experts for his announcement on Wednesday, the article says the scientists backed his decision when they were asked on Thursday.
> Aren't advised and backed different things?


Well looks like claim is debunked, unless there is more evidence. 

I think PR was onto something when he mentioned our special relationship is actually the answer. Trump has golf courses in the UK and Ireland, does he have any in the EU?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Are we really Italy in 2 weeks time ?



I sincerely hope not; they’ve had 188 deaths in the past 24 hours.


----------



## PK99 (12 Mar 2020)

PaulB said:


> He looks like a dosser to me. A real cross-the-road-if-he's-walking-towards-you type. The sort who'd be asking you if you could lend him a couple of quid. I know it's wrong to look disparagingly at a person's sartorial foibles but the newspapers weren't shy about doing this in a recent election, were they? Or with Michael Foot a few years ago. Whitty does look like a right tramp though and there's no hiding from that.



Are you looking in the mirror?


----------



## marinyork (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Are we really Italy in 2 weeks time ?
> 
> Italy's just seemed to explode out of no where - UK seems to have been slower....
> 
> I guess with the different testing regimes it will be difficult to judge. I suspect daily deaths will become the metric rather than infection s...



No.

Valance said very clearly in that press conference he thinks we are four weeks behind Italy.

Some of the stuff said also seemed to hint they believe the patient uno theory.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I sincerely hope not; they’ve had 188 deaths in the past 24 hours.



I saw a graph (but can't remember where) showing growth rates in different countries. We're exactly on track to be where Italy is in two weeks.


----------



## Buck (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Are we really Italy in 2 weeks time ?
> 
> Italy's just seemed to explode out of no where - UK seems to have been slower....
> 
> I guess with the different testing regimes it will be difficult to judge. I suspect daily deaths will become the metric rather than infection s...



I don’t know if we will see a major step change in 2 weeks or so but from what is being said today, they suggest the peak will be 10-14 weeks away. The plan is to prevent the peak level of infections (which they are modelling at a worst case scenario of 80%) to build over a longer period rather than spike as it did in China etc.

Re deaths, the prediction is for 1% or less of those infected which at 1% could be a staggering 530,000 people. I think you are right that the death numbers will be more prevalent soon but only time will tell as to whether the predictions and plans are right. 

We just need to play our part re basic hygiene and considering who, how and when we meet others and if needs be, self isolation.


----------



## RoadRider400 (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So we have gone from
> "For most people this is a mild illness"
> To
> "Many more people are going to lose loved ones before there time"


They are not mutually exclusive. Whats the problem?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I saw a graph (but can't remember where) showing growth rates in different countries. We're exactly on track to be where Italy is in two weeks.



Here you go... 10 days behind Italy


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Mar 2020)

And Mikel Arteta has tested positive. 

Surely the footie is all off now?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Are we really Italy in 2 weeks time ?
> 
> Italy's just seemed to explode out of no where - UK seems to have been slower....
> 
> I guess with the different testing regimes it will be difficult to judge. I suspect daily deaths will become the metric rather than infection s...



The figure estimated 5-10,000 infected.

Now the fact they are not in the figures means some possible things

They are not sick enough to request care (where they would get tested) and therefore have mild symptoms or nothing beyond flu like.
If they have flu they hopefully are confined to bed and not infecting anyone else. That excludes anyone looking after them in same household who may be infected but not showing signs yet.
They are still in the incubation period and not showing symptoms etc.
Any of the above they may still be contagious.

I’ve read about your son and you need to be planning how you are going to protect / isolate him. The Government isn’t going to do it for you.

Being inside is going to drive anyone crazy. So consider empty outdoor spaces you can take him to get fresh air without interacting with others. Keep the inside of your car virus free. Always wash your hands and the handles before getting in etc. Don’t offer lifts outside family if you currently do this.

minimise your own and your families social contact / interaction


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So we have gone from
> "For most people this is a mild illness"
> To
> "Many more people are going to lose loved ones before there time"



Both are true but for that 5% for whom it is serious it’s a lot when you take it as a percentage of 70,000,000 people. Roughly 350,000 in serious life threatening condition. Our intensive care can not cope with that number at once. Hence delay as in flatten the peak and stretch it out. Otherwise hospitals are overwhelmed and can’t even assess people let alone put them on oxygen etc. They would have to decide who gets help (who has the best chance of survival given resources) and who is left to die (or recover by themselves). It will be like war zone triage.


----------



## marinyork (12 Mar 2020)

As was made clear today if 10 to 20 times have it than have tested positive, then test numbers in Italy are also fairly meaningless too. As it increases they may be further out. This could mean 300,000 to 500,000 in Italy having the virus.


----------



## randynewmanscat (12 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Here you go... 10 days behind Italy
> 
> View attachment 508155


Including Iran seems hopeful at best, think of a number and multiply by a number would be apt for Iran.


----------



## Rusty Nails (12 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Losing people before there time - to me that means healthy people dying young ?



They are talking mostly about people in their 60s, 70s and 80s who would otherwise have lived to their 80s or 90s. People's parents and grandparents. A lot of elderly people have underlying health conditions that are perfectly manageable outside this virus.

Young is a subjective term that can vary.


----------



## tom73 (12 Mar 2020)

PaulB said:


> He looks like a dosser to me. A real cross-the-road-if-he's-walking-towards-you type. The sort who'd be asking you if you could lend him a couple of quid. I know it's wrong to look disparagingly at a person's sartorial foibles but the newspapers weren't shy about doing this in a recent election, were they? Or with Michael Foot a few years ago. Whitty does look like a right tramp though and there's no hiding from that.



I don't think he's got much time at the moment to worry about which tie go’s best with which suit. One of my uni lecturers looked like a mad prof inc the wild hair. He was one of the worlds most respected scientists. A life long mate another scientist is not the best dressed guy. But if my life depended on it I’d pick him any day over some smart suited snake oil seller.

If you really think it matters then god help you if tell it to a nurse about to jab you or even worse armed in one hand with a catheter and holding your crown jewels in the other.


----------



## fossyant (12 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> They are talking mostly about people in their 60s, 70s and 80s who would otherwise have lived to their 80s or 90s. People's parents and grandparents. A lot of elderly people have underlying health conditions that are perfectly manageable outside this virus.
> 
> Young is a subjective term that can vary.



This is the issue. My mum doesn't seem bothered, but I've said be careful - my parents are in fairly good health, mobile and in mid 70's, but mum is an ex smoker and her lungs aren't fab. MIL is a gonner if she gets this - mid 80's and advanced heart failure and in a nursing home - a chest infection nearly killed her 12 months ago.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> They are talking mostly about people in their 60s, 70s and 80s who would otherwise have lived to their 80s or 90s. People's parents and grandparents. A lot of elderly people have underlying health conditions that are perfectly manageable outside this virus.
> 
> Young is a subjective term that can vary.



But also young people. Mortality is lower but not zero. Maybe around 1% of 18-50 year olds will die this year if it spreads widely across all communities.


----------



## randynewmanscat (12 Mar 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> The Coronavirus (Wuhan virus) outbreak.
> How worried should the world be?


I read the lot and to answer the OP, very worried.


----------



## marinyork (12 Mar 2020)

If anyone is interested I would recommend watching tonight's newsnight on discussion about why the UK is doing what it is.


----------



## Nigeyy (12 Mar 2020)

I'm in Massachusetts, USA.

My son has compromized health so I pulled him today from school, and I admit to being very concerned about him. Turns out the school cancelled tomorrow as well and many other schools are doing as well, some for 30 days. My daughter's university is closing next week for the rest of the academic year. Not that I'm bothered but most professional sports are cancelling over here as well. Many companies here are WFH. I've never seen such measures. 

Massachusetts has declared a state of emergency, but that's more to release federal funding than being dramatic. The real problem has been the complete fudge up with testing, barely any tests are available so triaging can't effectively happen. Other issues are more strict work policies here that don't allow for more than 0-3 sick days, so people who are sick but need the money are going to work. And of course, some people are less likely to seek healthcare (not that they could get tested anyway) as they can't afford the health insurance.

There are many issues combining to make it a bit of a perfect storm and I think the New England area is just playing for time in an effort to flatten the curve. I hope it works but I doubt the ultimate spread will be contained to be less than 30-40%.


----------



## fossyant (12 Mar 2020)

I really feel for you @Nigeyy Your healthcare system will end up with many ill folks due to costs, and your 'idiot' is as just as bad as our's, if not worse. At least he is acting bit - not much going on with the British 'STIFF UPPER LIP' !


----------



## Rusty Nails (12 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Made it up did I?
> 
> Try reading this quote about two of America's 'top experts':
> 
> ...



Was he listening to the experts when he said that the travel ban would also include trade and cargo? The statement was later retracted.

He makes stuff up on the hoof and listens to experts that agree with him.

I recognise your constant desire to go against the majority view on this forum, but sometimes the majority are right.


----------



## Nigeyy (12 Mar 2020)

Wish I could be a bit more optimistic about your post, but thanks for the thoughts.



fossyant said:


> I really feel for you @Nigeyy Your healthcare system will end up with many ill folks due to costs, and your 'idiot' is as just as bad as our's, if not worse. At least he is acting bit - not much going on with the British 'STIFF UPPER LIP' !


----------



## fossyant (12 Mar 2020)

Nigeyy said:


> Wish I could be a bit more optimistic about your post, but thanks for the thoughts.



We are 'buggered' here too.


----------



## Accy cyclist (12 Mar 2020)

Serious thought here. I came home tonight to find my dog had been sick on the carpet. He's also been off his food all day. I heard it mentioned that cats and dogs can contract the virus.

For those who can't get their hands(excuse the pun)on hand gel,try mixing ordinary household bleach about 30% bleach 70% water in a bottle with a spray top.


----------



## Fab Foodie (12 Mar 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Serious thought here. I came home tonight to find my dog had been sick on the carpet. He's also been off his food all day. I heard it mentioned that cats and dogs can contract the virus.
> 
> For those who can't get their hands(excuse the pun)on hand gel,try mixing ordinary household bleach about 30% bleach 70% water in a bottle with a spray top.


30% bleach solution sounds waaaay too strong for hand use. Care to check the source? 3% then maybe....


----------



## Nigeyy (12 Mar 2020)

From this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

UK has tested 26,000 people compared to USA's 9,000. Given the USA has about 5 times as many people, that's inexcusable. And you won't go bankrupt after receiving treatment (hey, just trying to see the good side). Either way, it's not going to be a good scenario.



fossyant said:


> We are 'buggered' here too.


----------



## Rusty Nails (12 Mar 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Serious thought here. I came home tonight to find my dog had been sick on the carpet. He's also been off his food all day. I heard it mentioned that cats and dogs can contract the virus.
> 
> For those who can't get their hands(excuse the pun)on hand gel,try mixing ordinary household bleach about 30% bleach 70% water in a bottle with a spray top.



Interesting idea  where did you get it from?

My own tip, if you haven't got hand gel, is to wash your hands in boiling water. What could go wrong?


----------



## Accy cyclist (12 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> 30% bleach solution sounds waaaay too strong for hand use. Care to check the source? 3% then maybe....


We were talking about this in the gym tonight. People seem to think that bleach burns the skin. It isn't caustic soda! I use household bleach quite a lot around my flat. Even 100% bleach hasn't done my skin any harm. Just keep it away from your eyes and mouth and it should be ok. I don't think a low amount like 3% will kill the virus or any germs.


----------



## marinyork (12 Mar 2020)

To summarise uk position.

Upto 20x the number of diagnosed cases likely.
We are four weeks behind Italy, not two.
Closing schools at this stage is not particularly effective and may infect the elderly as families huddle and visit each other.
Closures would likely have to be for 13 weeks to be very effective.
Football matches and outside events not a particularly high chance of passing on.
If we go too soon with stringent measures the public will just mess about (this happened in italy)
The UK is worried about resurgences in the virus
Building up herd immunity is favourable (and will.work)
The peak will come in May or June
A lot of measures considered by other countries will be implemented, but they are riding the wave and waiting for the right moment.
Really good contact tracing in Jan and Feb helped us a lot.


----------



## Mugshot (12 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> View attachment 508113
> 
> 
> Photoshop of a still from Jaws where Mayor Vaughn tries to convince everyone to carry on as normal, Boris Johnson was not in Jaws, his inclusion here is satirical.


No way!!!! 


View: https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1238016923029430272?s=19


----------



## slowmotion (12 Mar 2020)

Here's my public service announcement:

If you obsess about your lack of hand sanitiser, read on. Vodka is about 40% ABV but in order to get a faintly effective hand sanitiser you need about 60-70%. The freezing point of ethanol (ethyl alcohol) is about minus 114 degrees C, but water's is zero degrees C. If you stick your vodka in the deep freeze (about -25C), the water will turn to ice but the alcohol will remain liquid. Fish out the ice, _et voila! ,_ pure alcohol.

Please be warned...….

1) a glass bottle will probably crack as it freezes
2) you will almost certainly be happier just drinking the vodka without all the faffing about.


----------



## Nigeyy (13 Mar 2020)

Just some thoughts:

I believe the percentage of total infection is probably not going to change overall, but the rate of infection can be. Without any kind of intervention, infections will usually follow a logarithmic normal curve. To give an example, the UK has a population of 60 million. Assuming 30% or the population gets infected (some people are actually suggesting higher numbers), that means 18 million people will catch it.

But of that 18 million, it looks like only 10-20% may require serious hospitalization and care. Let's again take an extremely optimistic view of 10%, but that still means 1.8 million people requiring care. Now imagine all those people catch it in one day: it would be a disaster -imagine 1.8 million patients turning up, it would be untenable. However, if those people could catch it over a period of 6 months, that means about 9,900 people per day every day on average. That's still absolutely atrocious but definitely more manageable than all in one day.....

So slowing the growth rate is of paramount importance (i.e. "flattening the curve"). I don't think it can be stopped, but slowing it could be crucial.


----------



## Stephenite (13 Mar 2020)

In Norway...

... schools, kindergartens, and many businesses are closed for an initial two weeks. Provision is made for critical personnel to have their kids taken care of. Libraries, sports clubs, swimming pools closed. Events with more than 500 people banned - in practice any kind of meeting is cancelled. If possible, work from home. Maintain one metre distance from anyone else. Do not go to work if you exhibit cold and flu symptoms. Avoid rush hour. People are panic buying.


----------



## Pale Rider (13 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Was he listening to the experts when he said that the travel ban would also include trade and cargo? The statement was later retracted.
> 
> He makes stuff up on the hoof and listens to experts that agree with him.
> 
> I recognise your constant desire to go against the majority view on this forum, but sometimes the majority are right.



Trump, like us, appears to have two lead experts.

However you cut it, both think the inbound travel ban is a good idea, coupled with other measures being taken internally.

I imagine they care about the 'majority view of this forum' as much as I do.

Other experts think the travel ban is not worth doing.

Which makes it another of several areas in which opinions, expert and non-expert, differ on how best to combat the virus.


----------



## the snail (13 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> And take down most of the worlds economy with them.


"most expensive speech in history"

View: https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1238137215445852160?s=20


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (13 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Both are true but for that 5% for whom it is serious it’s a lot when you take it as a percentage of 70,000,000 people. *Roughly 350,000 in serious life threatening condition.* Our intensive care can not cope with that number at once. *Hence delay as in flatten the peak and stretch it out.* Otherwise hospitals are overwhelmed and can’t even assess people let alone put them on oxygen etc. They would have to decide who gets help (who has the best chance of survival given resources) and who is left to die (or recover by themselves). It will be like war zone triage.



Sorry, 5% of 70,000,000 is not 350,000. 5% is 3,500,000.

Irrespective whether 40%, 50% or 80% of these guinea pigs for this "herd immunity" experiment catching the virus, or whether the "peak" is spread over 4 weeks or 4 months, nearly all these "5%" serious cases will die, because hardly any of them will ever get to be anywhere near an ICU. The following explains why.

If only 50% of the 3,500,000 so 1,750,000 need to stay in an ICU for say 10 days each, evening out equally over 4 months they would need 146,000 ICU beds. There are however only 3,700* ICU beds in UK, normally 80% occupied, i.e. under 700 free at any time. Even if everybody else was kicked out, 3,700 is c2.5% of 146,000. So 2.5% is their max chance of ever getting to meet an ICU bed.

That is without considering assisted ventilation. Experience in China and Italy indicates that since pneumonia is the main killer, mechanical ventilation equipment, preferably ECMO machines to allow damaged lungs to recover, are important lifesavers. We have 15 beds with such, good for 28 patients*.

Regarding herd immunity, you can read about it here, none of the experts considers it worthwhile for COVID-19, because huge number will have to die before we get that as demonstrated above.

Perhaps the Government is waiting for the seriously ill to more or less fill the 700 beds. To hit that they will have to implement social distancing in about a week, because the number will continue to climb exponentially for a period after. The difference between that and implement now? A couple of hundred more will die. Presumably someone somewhere decided that price is worth paying to delay for a week - I can't see why, given late in also means late out.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (13 Mar 2020)

Nigeyy said:


> Just some thoughts:
> 
> I believe the percentage of total infection is probably not going to change overall, but the rate of infection can be. Without any kind of intervention, infections will usually follow a logarithmic normal curve. To give an example, the UK has a population of 60 million. Assuming 30% or the population gets infected (some people are actually suggesting higher numbers), that means 18 million people will catch it.
> 
> ...



Think if you consider how long each needing intensive care actually need to be cared for, 9,900 turning up each day won't be manageable.

But why do you think 30% of the population need to get infected, when only c100,000 of the 60,000,000 quarantined in Hubei got it (i.e. 0.17%), which represents 0.007% of China's population.

Have you seen Korea's curve below? They look like slowly and surely getting it under control too, probably landing at 10,000 out of a population of 51,000,000 eventually, i.e. 0.02%.


----------



## Fab Foodie (13 Mar 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> We were talking about this in the gym tonight. People seem to think that bleach burns the skin. It isn't caustic soda! I use household bleach quite a lot around my flat. Even 100% bleach hasn't done my skin any harm. Just keep it away from your eyes and mouth and it should be ok. I don't think a low amount like 3% will kill the virus or any germs.


From Wiki....


Disinfection	Edit
See also: Hypochlorous acid

Sodium hypochlorite in solution exhibits broad spectrum anti-microbial activity and is widely used in healthcare facilities in a variety of settings.[37] It is usually diluted in water depending on its intended use. "Strong chlorine solution" is a 0.5% solution of hypochlorite (containing approximately 5000 ppm free chlorine) used for disinfecting areas contaminated with body fluids, including large blood spills (the area is first cleaned with detergent before being disinfected).[37][38] It may be made by diluting household bleach as appropriate (normally 1 part bleach to 9 parts water).[39] Such solutions have been demonstrated to inactivate both C. difficile[37] and HPV.[40] "Weak chlorine solution" is a 0.05% solution of hypochlorite used for washing hands, but is normally prepared with calcium hypochlorite granules.[38]

"Dakin's Solution" is a disinfectant solution containing low concentration of sodium hypochlorite and some boric acid or sodium bicarbonate to stabilize the pH. It has been found to be effective with NaOCl concentrations as low as 0.025%.[41]



So from that, your 30% solution is much too strong. For handwashing 1in 100 is recommended. 
I also regularly use bleach (in industrial applications as well) and a 30% solution is seriously unpleasant and not to be recommended to anyone.


----------



## slowmotion (13 Mar 2020)

It looks like homebrew shops are going to be ransacked by mad bog roll hoarders.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Mar 2020)

As it seems to abate in China, they’re sharing some of their medical capacity. A team of Chinese medical experts and 30 tons of equipment and supplies landed in Rome last night.


----------



## tom73 (13 Mar 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Serious thought here. I came home tonight to find my dog had been sick on the carpet. He's also been off his food all day. I heard it mentioned that cats and dogs can contract the virus.
> 
> For those who can't get their hands(excuse the pun)on hand gel,try mixing ordinary household bleach about 30% bleach 70% water in a bottle with a spray top.


Dog's can't get this unconfirmed report in china lead to this idea. it's not official and confirmed. Official advice say's dogs are ok. He's probably got a general bad stomach that dogs get from time to time. Make sure he's still drinking and try him on something gentle like a bit of cooked chicken and rice or pasta. If he gets worse phone the vet and get some advice. If he's ok today then don't worry too much.


----------



## marinyork (13 Mar 2020)

Lot of commentary about nursing homes today. I do think the over 70s not doing cruises sounds comical as advice. There needs to be more advice how to separate the elderly, which is what the uk government are wanting to do.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Mar 2020)

For anybody worried about loo roll, here's a top tip from French Renaissance writer and physician Francois Rabelais -



> 'I have', answered Gargantua, 'by a long and curious experience found out a means to wipe my bum. The most lordly, the most excellent, the most convenient that was ever seen. I have wiped my tail with a hen, with a cock, with a pullet, with a calf's skin, with a hare, with a pigeon, with a cormorant, with an attorney's bag, with a Montero, with a falconer's lure. But to conclude, I say and maintain that of all the torcheculs, arsewisps, bumfodders, tail-napkins, bunghole cleansers, and wipe-breeches, there is none in the world comparable to the neck of a goose, that is well downed, if you hold her head betwixt your legs. And believe me therein upon mine honour, for you will thereby feel in your nockhole a most wonderful pleasure, both in regard of the softness of the said down and of the temporate heat of the goose, which is easily communicated to the bum-gut and the rest of the inwards, in so far as to come even to the regions of the heart and brains.'"



Handy if you run out.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> For anybody worried about loo roll, here's a top tip from French Renaissance writer and physician Francois Rabelais -
> 
> 
> 
> Handy if you run out.


So is that what the film Wild Geese is really about?


----------



## Duffy (13 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Trump not having a task force when it had no tasks to deal with isn't much of a criticism.
> 
> He has one now, and he's following its advice.
> 
> ...



just like having no insurance when your house isn’t actually on fire or flooded is a reasonable response???

Get a grip


----------



## MartinQ (13 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Think if you consider how long each needing intensive care actually need to be cared for, 9,900 turning up each day won't be manageable.
> 
> But why do you think 30% of the population need to get infected, when only c100,000 of the 60,000,000 quarantined in Hubei got it (i.e. 0.17%), which represents 0.007% of China's population.
> 
> ...


Really good graph.


----------



## Mo1959 (13 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Dog's can't get this unconfirmed report in china lead to this idea. it's not official and confirmed. Official advice say's dogs are ok. He's probably got a general bad stomach that dogs get from time to time. Make sure he's still drinking and try him on something gentle like a bit of cooked chicken and rice or pasta. If he gets worse phone the vet and get some advice. If he's ok today then don't worry too much.


Cats and dogs can get coronavirus, but it's a different strain and has been around for years. Pretty sure there's no chance of any cross contamination other than if someone with the virus manages to get it onto your pet's coat and then you pick it up that way.


----------



## Duffy (13 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So what do you if you think you have it ?
> 
> Ring 111 ? - no not anymore !!!!
> 
> ...



Once it’s in the community and spreading from person to person outwith the initial high risk group (travellers from China, Iran, Italy etc etc) there’s no point in testing everybody with symptoms, as the vast majority of these people will recover normally with no intervention required.
You save your testing for those who actually need it rather than those who just want it. 
In other words your testing is clinically driven.


----------



## Mugshot (13 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> So is that what the film Wild Geese is really about?


Wild? I'd have thought they'd be farking furious!


----------



## marinyork (13 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> Once it’s in the community and spreading from person to person outwith the initial high risk group (travellers from China, Iran, Italy etc etc) there’s no point in testing everybody with symptoms, as the vast majority of these people will recover normally with no intervention required.
> You save your testing for those who actually need it rather than those who just want it.
> In other words your testing is clinically driven.



There was some stuff yesterday about different and quicker tests being developed. It wasn't clear whether this was on the horizon or speculative. If it's speculative testing will be for those that need it.


----------



## Dave7 (13 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Interesting idea  where did you get it from?
> 
> My own tip, if you haven't got hand gel, is to wash your hands in boiling water. What could go wrong?


Why not leave them to soak overnight


----------



## Venod (13 Mar 2020)




----------



## Skibird (13 Mar 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Serious thought here. I came home tonight to find my dog had been sick on the carpet. He's also been off his food all day. I heard it mentioned that cats and dogs can contract the virus.
> 
> For those who can't get their hands(excuse the pun)on hand gel,try mixing ordinary household bleach about 30% bleach 70% water in a bottle with a spray top.


 I hope he's better and if not, been checked out by a vet.


----------



## marinyork (13 Mar 2020)

First case in china was 17th of november, reports on records claim https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...november-china-government-records-show-report


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Mar 2020)

The folklore and fisherwives tales are gaining traction on the internet, vitamin C and D in large doses is the latest craze. Its less loony than the QAnon dolts recommending you drink bleach I suppose.


----------



## Inertia (13 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Trump, like us, appears to have two lead experts.
> 
> However you cut it, both think the inbound travel ban is a good idea, coupled with other measures being taken internally.
> 
> ...


I thought your point was that people were being harsh on him and that he was simply following expert advice


Pale Rider said:


> By enforcing the European travel ban, Trump is following the advice of his experts.
> 
> That is a simple matter of fact.


But it appears he made the decision without expert advice and now some experts agree with it, although with the caveat "coupled with other measures being taken internally".

The order is important because even if, without expert advice, he gets some stuff right by shear luck, he may be getting alot wrong.


----------



## Mugshot (13 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Trump, like us, appears to have two lead experts.
> 
> However you cut it, both think the inbound travel ban is a good idea, coupled with other measures being taken internally.
> 
> ...


I assume you're talking about Fauci and Redfield that are mentioned in the article you linked? Are the organisations they work for public ones, are they public servants? If they are, given Trump's penchant for sacking public servants that disagree with him followed by naming them on twitter for his more rabid followers to salivate over, it's perhaps not surprising that they may back him publicly. They may well back him privately too, but I don't think they're automatically as supportive as you're trying to make out.

In saying that, according to your article Fauci said regarding testing;

_"The system is not really geared to what we need right now -- what you are asking for. This is a failing. It is a failing. Let’s admit it,...Bottom line, it's going to get worse," _

Also

_Robert Kadlec, a senior Health and Human Services official, again referenced the limited supply of respirators in U.S. stockpile, this time giving new numbers on how many respirators, or specialized face masks, are needed...He reiterated that there is a concern of shortages in part because of many of the materials are from overseas. _

Yet Trump has held press conferences where he has said that they have millions of test kits, that everyone can get tested, that the US is prepared for the outbreak and has been ordering lots of "elements of medical", and that "everybody we see is getting better."
No scrabbling around for Trump's incompetence is needed, he confirms it every single time he opens his mouth.


Pale Rider said:


> Too many commentators start with the fixed view that Trump is a nutter, and then scrabble around trying to find evidence to prove it.
> 
> Start with a clean sheet and rationally assess his approach to this crisis then a different picture emerges.


----------



## PK99 (13 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Both are true but for that 5% for whom it is serious it’s a lot when you take it as a percentage of 70,000,000 people. Roughly 350,000 in serious life threatening condition. Our intensive care can not cope with that number at once. Hence delay as in flatten the peak and stretch it out. Otherwise hospitals are overwhelmed and can’t even assess people let alone put them on oxygen etc. T*hey would have to decide who gets help (who has the best chance of survival given resources) and who is left to die (or recover by themselves). It will be like war zone triage.*



All of which is currently happening in Italy - according to reports. Hence the need to spread the peak


----------



## PaulB (13 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> Oh dear. Not the most intelligent observation or comment. Very judgemental. Perhaps a period of self-reflection for you is in order?


No. I'm merely pointing out that it seems a person's looks come high on the agenda of the decision makers nowadays. If Jeremy Corbyn was deemed not smart enough to run the country, it should be pointed out that such judgement has now been suspended and we're asked to place our trust in one of Harry Ramp's finest.


----------



## tom73 (13 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Cats and dogs can get coronavirus, but it's a different strain and has been around for years. Pretty sure there's no chance of any cross contamination other than if someone with the virus manages to get it onto your pet's coat and then you pick it up that way.


Source of info please


----------



## carlosfandangus (13 Mar 2020)

Stephenite said:


> In Norway...
> 
> ... schools, kindergartens, and many businesses are closed for an initial two weeks. Provision is made for critical personnel to have their kids taken care of. Libraries, sports clubs, swimming pools closed. Events with more than 500 people banned - in practice any kind of meeting is cancelled. If possible, work from home. Maintain one metre distance from anyone else. Do not go to work if you exhibit cold and flu symptoms. Avoid rush hour. People are panic buying.


My wife's sister and husband live in Norway, their son has just been told to return home from Uni in York ASAP and to self isolate for 14 days.


----------



## nickyboy (13 Mar 2020)

PaulB said:


> No. I'm merely pointing out that it seems a person's looks come high on the agenda of the decision makers nowadays. If Jeremy Corbyn was deemed not smart enough to run the country, it should be pointed out that such judgement has now been suspended and we're asked to place our trust in one of Harry Ramp's finest.


At a time of national crisis when we all have to pull together for the greater good, your comments make me feel both sad and frustrated at the same time. It's people like you that will hold us back
I've never blocked anyone before on CC but you're blocked


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Mar 2020)

Just been speaking with my sister, a nurse at Ninewells Hospital

1) All leave cancelled
2) All non-elective surgery cancelled from Monday
3) Moving from 8 to 12 hr shifts from Monday
4) NHS Scotland have obtained a supply of ventilators that they say will be adequate for their needs
5) Proper face masks in critically short supply (see my post yesterday about non front line staff snaffling them)
6) All student nurses within 6 months of graduation are being signed off and put to work
7) Child care facilities for front line workers will be set up and run by NHS support staff


----------



## Johnno260 (13 Mar 2020)

Hand washing helps prevent the spread, say I'm carrying it with no ill effects I have noticed by cleaning my hands things I touch aren't as likely to be infected, in short we need to look out for each other which unfortunate to say society has moved away from.

DO NOT pay attention to social media, some of the trash I have seen there is pure scare mongering, and these websites should have a degree of responsibility to be held account to.

If everyone takes a measured response and does whats right this will be a more controlled issue, and the fact is it will become an issue, how it's controlled to a degree everyone can help with.

The government and NHS need to draw it out in a controlled manner to stop it peaking and overwhelming healthcare systems.


----------



## fossyant (13 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Source of info please



Just google it. It's not dissimilar to cat flu which one of my cat's is positive for (no re-occurances since we got him).


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Serious thought here. I came home tonight to find my dog had been sick on the carpet. He's also been off his food all day. I heard it mentioned that cats and dogs can contract the virus.
> 
> For those who can't get their hands(excuse the pun)on hand gel,try mixing ordinary household bleach about 30% bleach 70% water in a bottle with a spray top.



@Accy cyclist Good old fashioned soap and water. The soap destroys the outer membrane of the virus and renders it inert. Just make sure you are thorough in your washing of your hands and do it throughout the day as necessary.


----------



## PaulB (13 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> At a time of national crisis when we all have to pull together for the greater good, your comments make me feel both sad and frustrated at the same time. It's people like you that will hold us back
> I've never blocked anyone before on CC but you're blocked




I'll survive it.


----------



## fossyant (13 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Just been speaking with my sister, a nurse at Ninewells Hospital
> 
> 6) All student nurses within 6 months of graduation are being signed off and put to work



We are stopping face to face teaching ASAP and before the end of the month, so could see this being implemented in Britain.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 Mar 2020)

A friend of mine, a Venetian, who has been working here for about seven years had a severe asthma crisis a couple of weeks ago resulting in spending ten nights in hospital, two of which were in intensive care.

He's much younger than me and generally very fit but is understandably concerned about the effect that exposure to Covid-19 might have. Consequently he has already decided to self-isolate as a way of minimising potential exposure to it. His decision was influenced by his knowledge of how out of control the situation is in Italy and his view that the UK Gov is not handling this properly and enforcing early social distancing.


----------



## Buck (13 Mar 2020)

PaulB said:


> No. I'm merely pointing out that it seems a person's looks come high on the agenda of the decision makers nowadays. If Jeremy Corbyn was deemed not smart enough to run the country, it should be pointed out that such judgement has now been suspended and we're asked to place our trust in one of Harry Ramp's finest.



But you didn’t say that did you. You expressed it as your own view not that of others and we’re quite damning and disrespectful : - 



PaulB said:


> *He looks like a dosser to me*. A real cross-the-road-if-he's-walking-towards-you type. The sort who'd be asking you if you could lend him a couple of quid....


----------



## tom73 (13 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Just google it. It's not dissimilar to cat flu which one of my cat's is positive for (no re-occurances since we got him).



This is not a flu virus it's a cold virus. I know about about cat flu


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Sorry, 5% of 70,000,000 is not 350,000. 5% is 3,500,000.



Yes, I was thinking that this morning but you got to my post first. A lot more than I was thinking. This is if we get 100% infection.


----------



## Pale Rider (13 Mar 2020)

PaulB said:


> I'll survive it.



You'll certainly survive one, but possibly not the other.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> As it seems to abate in China, they’re sharing some of their medical capacity. A team of Chinese medical experts and 30 tons of equipment and supplies landed in Rome last night.



Yes I read that last night and it heartened my soul. This is the kind of response a pandemic needs. It is not a time to be isolationist and blaming others.


----------



## steve292 (13 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> For anybody worried about loo roll, here's a top tip from French Renaissance writer and physician Francois Rabelais -
> 
> 
> 
> Handy if you run out.


I've just stolen that for my FB feed


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> A friend of mine, a Venetian, who has been working here for about seven years had a severe asthma crisis a couple of weeks ago resulting in spending ten nights in hospital, two of which were in intensive care.
> 
> He's much younger than me and generally very fit but is understandably concerned about the effect that exposure to Covid-19 might have. Consequently he has already decided to self-isolate as a way of minimising potential exposure to it. His decision was influenced by his knowledge of how out of control the situation is in Italy and his view that the UK Gov is not handling this properly and enforcing early social distancing.



This is what I worry about, the more vulnerable, not myself. Sadly I think many in the UK have developed a mistrust of experts over the years. They will ignore the advice, say I’m alright jack, and spread it to those less able to cope with it.

We all need to think about the vulnerable members of our families and community and how we can help if they need to isolate.


----------



## fossyant (13 Mar 2020)

MIL's nursing home has banned all visitors. MIL won't be happy, but better off un-happy than dead. Sensible move as you'd never know who might be positive.


----------



## Accy cyclist (13 Mar 2020)

I wonder if hospitals have ordered more body bags?


----------



## greenmark (13 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> @Accy cyclist Good old fashioned soap and water. The soap destroys the outer membrane of the virus and renders it inert. Just make sure you are thorough in your washing of your hands and do it throughout the day as necessary.



Throughout the day is a bit excessive. Do it for just 20 seconds each time.


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## Archie_tect (13 Mar 2020)

As a result of of recent panic buying, some supermarkets have started to limit sales on certain products:

Tesco: 
2 hand sanitisers, 16 toilet rolls. 5 bars of soap.
Morrisons: 
12 toilet rolls, 1 hand sanitiser, 5 bags of dry pasta.
Asda:
12 toilet rolls, 2 hand sanitisers, 3 bags of dry pasta.
Aldi:
2 trumpets, 1 diving suit, 1 MIG welder.


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## Accy cyclist (13 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> So from that, your 30% solution is much too strong. For handwashing 1in 100 is recommended.



That's fair enough,though i've used my 30% bleach solution for years without any problems.I'd also like to point out that my solution isn't just for hand cleansing. I use it on 'work surfaces' etc. Would a 1% bleach solution be effective on say door handles,toilet seats etc?


----------



## GetAGrip (13 Mar 2020)

Oh I'm missing being a "member state" very much at the moment  Just saying.


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## AuroraSaab (13 Mar 2020)

Info about pets and CV here:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...latest-advice-about-coronavirus-and-your-pets

Answer seems to be it's unlikely that you can pass it on, or catch it, to/from pets, but better to reduce contact anyway and quarantine the pets of those infected.

I think if it was easily transmitted to pets we would have heard about a lot more pet deaths from China and Italy by now.


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Mar 2020)

Grim coronavirus bonus, diesel at €1.19 per litre. Filled my Jerry cans too so that I can drive around my land on my lawn tractor when the travel bans are enforced. Schools are out now.


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## Fab Foodie (13 Mar 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> That's fair enough,though i've used my 30% bleach solution for years without any problems.I'd also like to point out that my solution isn't just for hand cleansing. I use it on 'work surfaces' etc. Would a 1% bleach solution be effective on say door handles,toilet seats etc?



Yes is the simple answer, should be fine.
https://www.ipswichma.gov/DocumentCenter/View/10072/50ppm-Guidelines-on-the-Use-of-Disinfectants

Even 10% is very strong for your usage. Might save some money!


----------



## vickster (13 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Yes is the simple answer, should be fine.
> https://www.ipswichma.gov/DocumentCenter/View/10072/50ppm-Guidelines-on-the-Use-of-Disinfectants
> 
> Even 10% is very strong for your usage. *Might save some money!*


And skin!


----------



## marinyork (13 Mar 2020)

Italy's chief medical officer has died of coronavirus.

All the talk of knighthoods and dressed up seem absolutely daft in this context. Surviving in post and as few of the people in the country dying seems good at this point and honour enough .


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Italy's chief medical officer has died of coronavirus.
> 
> All the talk of knighthoods and dressed up seem absolutely daft in this context. Surviving in post and as few of the people in the country dying seems good at this point and honour enough .




Six days ago, Giorgio Valoti, the mayor of Cene in Bergamo, wrote on his FB page: "When the emergency is over we'll all get together to drink an apritif and have a party. On average a life is 80 years, 15 days of calm and rest won't kill us. United we can stop it!"

He has now died from the corona virus.


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Mar 2020)

My first shopping trip since people told to take things seriously. An old boy of the shopping type who cannot resist fondling and squeezing every piece of fresh produce before choosing a single piece. 
I watched him palm his upper lip and nose before reaching down and again fondling through an entire bed of batavia. I mean the entire bed, he picked up, squeezed and groped every single head. I'm passing on the salad until my own come good. You can rinse the stuff but you are hardly going to apply soap and the way he was mauling the stuff I wonder if the crud on his fingers got into the flesh of the leaves. Loose steaming and boiling veg won't be a problem but the salads I leave for now.


----------



## Inertia (13 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Just been speaking with my sister, a nurse at Ninewells Hospital
> 
> 1) All leave cancelled
> 2) All non-elective surgery cancelled from Monday
> ...


Not sure about this one at least, I have been keeping an eye on this part when I was told about it the other day. Its only just been suggested so its probably too soon to make the claim that they will all be put to work. They will be asked, and not just signed off.



> “As part of sensible preparation this we want to invite up to 18,000 third year undergraduate nurses to help out on the front line, and we will be are working with the regulators and staff organisations on this.”





> A spokesperson for the Royal College of Nursing said it would support student nurses who wished to take up the invite to the frontline.



https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/w...nurses-to-help-tackle-coronavirus-11-03-2020/


----------



## Johnno260 (13 Mar 2020)

Could they not utilize military medics?

These are people trained to a high standard, and trained to cope with high stress situations.


----------



## vickster (13 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Could they not utilize military medics?
> 
> These are people trained to a high standard, and trained to cope with high stress situations.


Don’t many already work within the NHS too?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Mar 2020)

.


marinyork said:


> Italy's chief medical officer has died of coronavirus.



'kinell!

source?


----------



## Johnno260 (13 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Don’t many already work within the NHS too?


I'm not sure, my wife is a nurse but kids nurse so they wouldn't see any MOD people there.

I was just thinking if they're an un-tapped resource it makes sense, if the need arises that is.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (13 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> 
> 'kinell!
> ...



https://www.standard.co.uk/news/wor...-death-toll-coronavirus-covid19-a4386356.html


----------



## Johnno260 (13 Mar 2020)

Italian friend confirmed it to me as well.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Mar 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> https://www.standard.co.uk/news/wor...-death-toll-coronavirus-covid19-a4386356.html



Ah, that's not at all the same as the UK Chief Medical Officer. 



> The president of the Medical Guild of Varese, Roberto Stella, 67, died this week of respiratory failure after contracting COVID-19.
> 
> 
> He had been practising medicine at an outpatient clinic in Busto Arsizio, north-west of Milan


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> 
> 'kinell!
> ...




I'm not sure if it's the same guy but I was reading earlier of the death of Dr.Roberto Stella, the President of the Order of Doctors of the Province of Varese (Lombardy) and Director of the Lombard Training School in General Medicine, who was a family doctor.


----------



## marinyork (13 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Ah, that's not at all the same as the UK Chief Medical Officer.



Um. It's not quite that simple. Although he is actually from varese, he was actually in charge of sorting the outbreak in northern Italy. He is one of a number of provincial chiefs, but drafted in to sort it. Health is dealt by regions in Italy. He has had statements circulating around Italian news.

Medical chief, chief medical officer were names translated, but outbreak chief which has not been used probably most apt but not translationally correct.

It would be a bit like if the head of the BMA or other body drafted in by Boris to take operational charge died and peopl said nah, they are just a family doctor. Well yes they are, but also dealing with running it.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (13 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> All European travel to the US from Europe suspended by the Trumpster.
> 
> Except from the UK.
> 
> Come on, what's so special about our relationship with the US?



Trump likes us, has interests here - and there's a hell of a lot of citizens in the USA of Irish ancestry, so not banning them plays well to his domestic audience. It is an election year after all. 

On the other hand, Trump doesn't like the EU, and it's free movement principles. Not one little bit does he like the EU. The virus gives Trump a good opportunity to have a general swipe at the EU, and at the same time appear to be "doing the right thing" by keeping germ-carrying Europeans who could have travelled anywhere in the Schengen area, out of the US. If the infection rates don't get too astronomical, Trump will take the credit for taking tough action, and if it gets bad anyway he'll say "I tried my best but there were too many nasty foreigners already here". Trump doesn't care what the rest of the world, apart from his closest allies, think of his actions - and even then appealing to his own support base takes priority over everything and everyone else.


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Mar 2020)

Last shop visit before home to pick up odds and sods and satisfy my weakness for crap sugary drinks. Bloke picks up the 50cl coke bottle by the neck and top and runs it over the scanner. This is to drink on the way home so I will wait until I get home I think. 
I reckon for most of us it's going to take some adjustments before we can autopilot good habits. Trying to keep your mitts off your own face when you have a slight itch on an eyebrow or your nose is difficult, habits of a lifetime. I found myself stalling before pulling a trolley out at the big shop, I used the ends of my wrists to drive the thing.


----------



## Rocky (13 Mar 2020)

Wales Scotland rugby off.......shame as the Scots would have stuffed them.


----------



## Mike_P (13 Mar 2020)

Struck me this morning shopping why do not self service checkouts automatically default to contactless payment so avoiding the need to touch anything. At least unlike last week not a cough to be heard anywhere or on the other hand maybe Morrisons has better mannered shoppers than Sainsbury's.


----------



## tom73 (13 Mar 2020)

Inertia said:


> Not sure about this one at least, I have been keeping an eye on this part when I was told about it the other day. Its only just been suggested so its probably too soon to make the claim that they will all be put to work. They will be asked, and not just signed off.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Mrs 73 has issues with this idea bringing them in to do care up to the level they are at is one thing but say they they are now qualified is another.As 3rd year students they can do quite a bit already with out just signing them off early. How are they able to be supervised and supported by fully qualified staff ? Bring them in and once this is over are they going to be removed from the register and made to do the 6 mouths they will have missed? It would be a bit bad to get them in pay them on band 5 then to take it all away at a later date. 
The NMC is a waste of time as it is so can't see any help or support coming from them any time soon either. I know this is all part of longer term planning but it leaves many questions.


----------



## tom73 (13 Mar 2020)

A close school friend of Mrs 73 mother is days from dying of cancer. She's in a care hame who have now gone into lock down. Her friend has been told she can't visit. Her friend is no more a risk than the staff , district nurse or GP who are still coming and going. The home is not even willing to talk about visiting but with infection control measures being taken. All they have said is if they think she is about to die they may let her say good by to her mum. By which time it will too late. 
She had such a hard time since her mums been ill the last few mouths this is all she need's


----------



## nickyboy (13 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Mrs 73 has issues with this idea bringing them in to do care up to the level they are at is one thing but say they they are now qualified is another.As 3rd year students they can do quite a bit already with out just signing them off early. How are they able to be supervised and supported by fully qualified staff ? Bring them in and once this is over are they going to be removed from the register and made to do the 6 mouths they will have missed? It would be a bit bad to get them in pay them on band 5 then to take it all away at a later date.
> The NMC is a waste of time as it is so can't see any help or support coming from them any time soon either. I know this is all part of longer term planning but it leaves many questions.


In Wuhan, which at the height of their epidemic is several orders of magnitude worse than hopefully we will face, all hospital employees were allocated frontline jobs, regardless of background. For example western doctor was assisted into full health PPE by someone. Doctor asked if that person was also a doctor. Turns out she was the receptionist who was assigned the role and learned on the job


----------



## Glow worm (13 Mar 2020)

My wife just emailed me to say her department at Cambridge University is likely to close until at least May due to the virus. She'll work from home on full pay, but thinks she won't be able to do much from home. 
The garden is going to look amazing!


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Mar 2020)

Giro postponed.


----------



## Julia9054 (13 Mar 2020)

I am a tutor with Shepherd Group Youth Brass Band in York. The band have entered the National Youth Brass Band Championships due to be held on 28th March. This is the first time we have entered this competition as it is the first time we have felt that the band has reached a good enough standard. The 35 young people have been working their socks off on what is a very difficult set work for months. I have just found out that the competition is cancelled. 10 of our young players are 18 and will not get the chance to compete again. Whilst I realise that the world of youth brass banding is very insignificant in all of this, to say I am gutted is an understatement.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 Mar 2020)

A couple of the big UK insurance firms (Direct Line and Churchill) have ceased the sale of travel cover to any new customers as a result of Covid-19. Axa has stated, "If you purchase a new policy now, it will not cover any trip cancellation or disruption in relation to coronavirus."

Luckily I have an annual policy but I still won't be going abroad anywhere until this has peaked.


----------



## tom73 (13 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> In Wuhan, which at the height of their epidemic is several orders of magnitude worse than hopefully we will face, all hospital employees were allocated frontline jobs, regardless of background. For example western doctor was assisted into full health PPE by someone. Doctor asked if that person was also a doctor. Turns out she was the receptionist who was assigned the role and learned on the job



I fully understand the situation may need some very different solutions. The receptionist will no doubt go back to the day job. We can't really hand out full professional registration to students and pay them as band 5 nurses. Then take it away at a later date. Nurse training is 3 years for a reason. Not to mansion the post qualification 6 month Preceptorship. Not all nurse training is same some don't learn some clinical skills when training it depends if the uni include it in the training. Some skills you can only be signed off to do once qualified so they will have gaps in skills as it is with out missing 6 month of training on top. If they are not going to make them catch up at later date. 

Without clear guidance and support to current qualified nurses it's going to be hard to know how they stand. Given the NMC are totally useless at anything other than taking your money. It's not going to come from them so any emergency legislation is going have to make this very clear or many will be really concerned of losing the registration they've work hard for once this situation is over.


----------



## fossyant (13 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> My wife just emailed me to say her department at Cambridge University is likely to close until at least May due to the virus. She'll work from home on full pay, but thinks she won't be able to do much from home.
> The garden is going to look amazing!



What's her role - with VPN I can do everything I need to


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Mar 2020)

208 more UK cases, 798 total. Rise of 35%. 

We're bang on 10 days behind Italy and following an identical trajectory.

Not wanting to be overly negative, but it now looks likely to get very bad, very quickly.

I shall be trying to persuade my (alas not local) cussed 80yo parents to behave sensibly. I doubt I'll succeed.


----------



## Stephenite (13 Mar 2020)

carlosfandangus said:


> My wife's sister and husband live in Norway, their son has just been told to return home from Uni in York ASAP and to self isolate for 14 days.


Yes. I forgot to mention that bit.

The son being in quarantine means the other members of the household will also be in quarantine.

People arriving in Norway who are not a resident of the nordic countries are asked to return to their home country.

https://www.visitnorway.com/plan-your-trip/coronavirus-and-travelling-to-norway/


----------



## Blue Hills (13 Mar 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Trump likes us, has interests here - and there's a hell of a lot of citizens in the USA of Irish ancestry, so not banning them plays well to his domestic audience. It is an election year after all.
> 
> On the other hand, Trump doesn't like the EU, and it's free movement principles. Not one little bit does he like the EU. The virus gives Trump a good opportunity to have a general swipe at the EU, and at the same time appear to be "doing the right thing" by keeping germ-carrying Europeans who could have travelled anywhere in the Schengen area, out of the US. If the infection rates don't get too astronomical, Trump will take the credit for taking tough action, and if it gets bad anyway he'll say "I tried my best but there were too many nasty foreigners already here". Trump doesn't care what the rest of the world, apart from his closest allies, think of his actions - and even then appealing to his own support base takes priority over everything and everyone else.


Thanks for the brutal truth.


----------



## Glow worm (13 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> What's her role - with VPN I can do everything I need to



I think the IT side should be OK, but because she's involved in lots of events, its more hands on, in-the-office and at venues type stuff. Also, there won't be nearly as much to do because the events probably won't be happening now.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 Mar 2020)

Sadly we've now had the first Covid-19 related death in Scotland. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51874899


----------



## cyberknight (13 Mar 2020)

Im waiting for us to be sent home 
Couple of thousand people with deliveries from all around the world coming in on a just in time basis , the vast majority cant work from home and the workforce come from a large area so big chance of infection .


----------



## fossyant (13 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> I think the IT side should be OK, but because she's involved in lots of events, its more hands on, in-the-office and at venues type stuff. Also, there won't be nearly as much to do because the events probably won't be happening now.



Yeh, we are looking to go virtual events where we can. I'm finance, so bills/budgets etc still need looking after.


----------



## Blue Hills (13 Mar 2020)

The culural film showing thing i referred to upthread, actually the Austrian cultural forum in london, has now announced a total suspension of events until further notice. And the wellcome collection a very popular gallery, library, cafe,chill-out space, is closing its doors from monday until further notice. The wellcome collection does of course have a long and distiguished medical history.
Wheelbuilding here i come.


----------



## tom73 (13 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> The culural film showing thing i referred to upthread, actually the Austrian cultural forum in london, has now announced a total suspension of events until further notice. And the wellcome collection a very popular gallery, library, cafe,chill-out space, is closing its doors from monday until further notice. The wellcome collection does of course have a long and distiguished medical history.
> Wheelbuilding here i come.



That's a shame it's a great place to visit not to mention the cheep lockers and free loo's the coffee is quite nice too.


----------



## kingrollo (13 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Mrs 73 has issues with this idea bringing them in to do care up to the level they are at is one thing but say they they are now qualified is another.As 3rd year students they can do quite a bit already with out just signing them off early. How are they able to be supervised and supported by fully qualified staff ? Bring them in and once this is over are they going to be removed from the register and made to do the 6 mouths they will have missed? It would be a bit bad to get them in pay them on band 5 then to take it all away at a later date.
> The NMC is a waste of time as it is so can't see any help or support coming from them any time soon either. I know this is all part of longer term planning but it leaves many questions.


There was an article in the independent - I think. About although there is talk of bringing retired doctors back and fast tracking nurses/doctors - there is actually no govt directive or advice on. It.
Seems to be a common theme with the handling of it....all imo of course.


----------



## Fab Foodie (13 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> My wife just emailed me to say her department at Cambridge University is likely to close until at least May due to the virus. She'll work from home on full pay, but thinks she won't be able to do much from home.
> The garden is going to look amazing!


Nottingham Uni is having a shut-down as well. My daughter is now unable to analyse samples she has stored in the lab freezers for her Ph.D. :-/


----------



## Fab Foodie (13 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Yeh, we are looking to go virtual events where we can. I'm finance, so bills/budgets etc still need looking after.


...and nobody in the organisation cares if you perish ;-)


----------



## gavroche (13 Mar 2020)

They just said on the Welsh news that they expect 20000 people to die from the virus in Wales !! That is very worrying.


----------



## Mugshot (13 Mar 2020)

Good news everyone, get on in here and heal yourselves. I'm not sure how much the gentleman is charging but I'm sure it's worth it. Praise the Lord.


View: https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1238110096334479364?s=20


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Mar 2020)

Very odd leaving work this afternoon. 

Not many people around, many like me won't be back for some time. 

"See you soon"
"Well, soonish"
"Some time anyway"
"Maybe May??"

Then a conversation in the cycle change hoping that we will, in fact see everyone again...

Strange times.


----------



## marinyork (13 Mar 2020)

I am waiting to see if uni is shut down. I reckon it'll be one of the last if it is. One supervisor's admin people is sending out loads of coronavirus stuff. The other lot are rather different.

I went to see the main supevisor, was quiet as it is Friday and many usually vanish anyway. The lecturers thought it a bit carry on up the khyber dinner party until I mentioned sorry I hadn't been around as much to group events as father in hospital with a cough. Oh right...

I am worried about a massive event next week I'm expected to attend. I reckon other unis would have said provisional or pulled it.


----------



## marinyork (13 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> In Wuhan, which at the height of their epidemic is several orders of magnitude worse than hopefully we will face, all hospital employees were allocated frontline jobs, regardless of background. For example western doctor was assisted into full health PPE by someone. Doctor asked if that person was also a doctor. Turns out she was the receptionist who was assigned the role and learned on the job



An order of magnitude less would be fantastic. I suspect that's the best that can be hoped for. 

Iirc Hubei about 50 million population and getting 4000 new cases per day. Not that as we have found out recently the tests mean much. 400 would be great. Already more than half way towards that. These figures may be wrong, but less than an order or magnitude would be amazingly good news. Unachievable I expect .


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)




----------



## Smokin Joe (13 Mar 2020)

gavroche said:


> They just said on the Welsh news that they expect 20000 people to die from the virus in Wales !! That is very worrying.



That is the _*worst case *_scenario, not what they are predicting at all. Spreading blind panic helps no one at all.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)

I see the mass gathering of people in close proximity called Sport Relief has gone ahead.


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> That is the _*worst case *_scenario, not what they are predicting at all. Spreading blind panic helps no one at all.



And it is in line with the worst case infection and mortality rates for the UK that have been talked about for weeks. It has not worsened just because Vaughan Gething put numbers to it.


----------



## Racing roadkill (13 Mar 2020)

I was in London today. Usually at 5 pm on a Friday, if you’re on the Northern / Piccadilly lines, you have to put your best war face on, form up the front row of a Rugby scrum, put your head between your legs, and prepare to kiss your arse goodbye. Today was somewhat different though. There was a serious lack of anyone ‘non-local’ and it felt really strange.


----------



## numbnuts (13 Mar 2020)

Worth watching, the start is a bit of a joke, but the rest is not

View: https://youtu.be/D_Vau7NDjQw


----------



## Pale Rider (13 Mar 2020)

Trump's just announced America's emergency measures.

Interesting to hear him thank 'great companies' such as Roche and Google.

Presumably, without their help and that of others, the American government could do very little.

I'm wary of trying to compare one society with another, but I think our way of dealing with the virus is the better one.


----------



## Starchivore (13 Mar 2020)

Starchivore said:


> I'm off to Spain on Monday, meant to have a little trip and then arrive in Madrid a week or so later. Slightly awkward timing



Okay turns out I'm not going to Madrid. I was going to go anyway because my girlfriend is there, but the thing she's involved with there has closed so she's returning Sunday. 

I was trying to figure out if the UK government is taking a sensible approach or not but then it dawned on me that I have no expertise and no idea. The UK's approach and Ireland's approach both seem to make sense for different reasons.


----------



## Mugshot (13 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Too many commentators start with the fixed view that Trump is a nutter, and then scrabble around trying to find evidence to prove it.
> 
> Start with a clean sheet and rationally assess his approach to this crisis then a different picture emerges.


A few of Trump's claims have been fact checked by the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51818627


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 Mar 2020)

In supermarkets around us there have been cost reductions on Corona and Moretti beers. Are those beers not selling so well due their nominal links to the virus and Italy?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (13 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> In supermarkets around us there have been cost reductions on Corona and Moretti beers. Are those beers not selling so well due their nominal links to the virus and Italy?


The Italian link doesn't seem to have deterred people from ravaging the country's pasta stocks.


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The Italian link doesn't seem to have deterred people from ravaging the country's pasta stocks.



You're not telling me spag-bol is an Italian dish?


----------



## BoldonLad (13 Mar 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> Info about pets and CV here:
> 
> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...latest-advice-about-coronavirus-and-your-pets
> 
> ...


Not to mention a lot more concerted action!


----------



## johnnyb47 (13 Mar 2020)

I think reality is starting to hit home with me now. 
For the past few weeks its just been a what you read in the papers, and kind of felt disconnected from it all, but watching Boris and his cronies last night talking live on the news and at the same time getting messages on my phone from my local GP giving general advice really felt like Armageddon day. 
Today at work i was briefed about new practices i am to start on Monday. 
As my roll is to take in many deliveries a day of up to 40 vehicles, I,ve now got to keep outside drivers from entering the building and tell them to stay inside there vehicles except for opening there trailer. I'm not to sign any of there paper work as it will be now done via a fax or email (basically treat every driver like they may be carrying this awful virus) 
Shift patterns have been changed so a 30 minute window will be created to keep the numbers of staff to minimal levels whilst the cleaners sanitise high traffic areas. 
It's a good call by my company and I'm glad there taking steps to minimise risk, but as said before its really bringing home to me how serious this could get. 
These practices are going to cause some issues and disruption in the smooth running, but we must all do our bit to help


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Mar 2020)

Benidorm goes into lockdown from midnight for 15 days



> All Public offices & town Halls are to close.
> All Bars & Restaurants must close.
> All activities including water sports must stop.
> All shop to close except shops selling food & pharmacies
> All Gyms & Recreational centres must close.



There are people sitting in planes at Manchester that have been held on the runways for over an hour. Flights to Tunisia are being refused permission to land - they're being diverted to Palma then returned to the airport of departure.


----------



## marinyork (13 Mar 2020)

On the way out of uni, scanning machines sealed off and two cleaners wheeling in huge trolleys of cleaning stuff and spending ages cleaning the contact points of the building sacanning machines. They do clean them all the time but usually it's a quick scrub-a-dub-dub.

Edit: now we know why!!!!


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## Racing roadkill (13 Mar 2020)

I’ve never seen this, at this time, on a normal Friday, in my life.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Mar 2020)




----------



## marinyork (13 Mar 2020)

A positive confirmed case at my university 50 mins ago. The uni remains open, face to face teaching suspended temporarily on Monday.


----------



## Racing roadkill (13 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 508308


That was Westminster bridge at about 13:00 today. I’m not exaggerating all that much either


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)

The government is going to abandon testing apart from the seriously ill in hospital. Suddenly we will be running blind on the scale. Are they crazy?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)

Anyone remember this film?


View: https://youtu.be/c7ynwAgQlDQ


----------



## Smokin Joe (13 Mar 2020)

In town (Haverfordwest) 3:30 today, much quieter than normal and staff in some shops wearing vinyl gloves.


----------



## Stephenite (13 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> I am waiting to see if uni is shut down. I reckon it'll be one of the last if it is. One supervisor's admin people is sending out loads of coronavirus stuff. The other lot are rather different.
> 
> I went to see the main supevisor, was quiet as it is Friday and many usually vanish anyway. The lecturers thought it a bit carry on up the khyber dinner party until I mentioned sorry I hadn't been around as much to group events as father in hospital with a cough. Oh right...
> 
> I am worried about a massive event next week I'm expected to attend. I reckon other unis would have said provisional or pulled it.


I would do whatever I had to do to avoid it. It would be better if it was cancelled.


----------



## Blue Hills (13 Mar 2020)

Just realised that the cancelled Austrian film I was due to see was called
Children of the dead
Had a few other closure notices, looks like some bodies/venues are making their own decisions despite government not publicly calling for closures. Unless the government is giving advice on the quiet in the background


----------



## Racing roadkill (13 Mar 2020)

I’m completely lost for words. And that is totally unprecedented. I really have nothing that I can say ( regarding this ). It’s mental. Beyond my comprehension, just completely mental.


----------



## marinyork (13 Mar 2020)

Stephenite said:


> I would do whatever I had to do to avoid it. It would be better if it was cancelled.



I feel very nervous about it. Lots of people in close contact and outsiders who are highly mobile.

Since writing that message there has been a positive test at the university.


----------



## Racing roadkill (13 Mar 2020)

No one ( I mean no one as well) has joined this train, at the 3 stations it’s been through, and it was empty to start with. This is like a bad dream. Seriously messed up.


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> I’m completely lost for words. And that is totally unprecedented. I really have nothing that I can say ( regarding this ). It’s mental. Beyond my comprehension, just completely mental.



I think many share those feelings.

We really are entering territory we haven't been before in most of our lives so have no touchstone to guide us.


----------



## Racing roadkill (13 Mar 2020)

I’ve just reached Winchester. 5 people ( I reckon) have got on. That’s normally a hundred. I’m not exaggerating either.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)

Do what you need to do, protect vulnerable members of your family.

This is our generations (by which I mean all generations alive right now) Bubonic plague.


----------



## Racing roadkill (13 Mar 2020)

A lot more people got off than got on, and I don’t know where they were hiding either


----------



## itboffin (13 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> I’ve just reached Winchester. 5 people ( I reckon) have got on. That’s normally a hundred. I’m not exaggerating either.



is it you....? 😜


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)

itboffin said:


> is it you....? 😜



He has been sweating and coughing


----------



## marinyork (13 Mar 2020)

https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...n-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive

Hmmm


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (13 Mar 2020)

itboffin said:


> is it you....? 😜


I reckon he's missed the ''this train terminates here'' announcement. He's off to the railway sidings.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I reckon he's missed the ''this train terminates here'' announcement. He's off to the railway sidings.



He will emerge 28 days later...


----------



## vickster (13 Mar 2020)

My bro and sil are off to the US tomorrow for 2 weeks. I don’t anticipate the drop off area being busy at LHR T5!


----------



## stowie (13 Mar 2020)

A friend of mine recently returned from visiting family in Pakistan. He said there are many, many cancelled flights to the point he was concerned that he wasn't going to be able to return on time. He also said Heathrow was deserted - 3 people in arrivals and a grand total of 9 suitcases in total on all conveyor belts.


----------



## midlife (13 Mar 2020)

Just out of curiosity is posting on here the same as using "social media"?


----------



## Mugshot (13 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1238563294073384965?s=20


----------



## vickster (13 Mar 2020)

midlife said:


> Just out of curiosity is posting on here the same as using "social media"?


Yes


----------



## PK99 (13 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The government is going to abandon testing apart from the seriously ill in hospital. Suddenly we will be running blind on the scale. Are they crazy?


 
No, see the video posted upthread:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_Vau7NDjQw&feature=youtu.be


----------



## PK99 (13 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Do what you need to do, protect vulnerable members of your family.
> 
> This is our generations (by which I mean all generations alive right now) Bubonic plague.



No it is not.
Unreasonable hyperbole is not sensible.


----------



## midlife (13 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Yes



Hmm. Briefing this morning included not blabbing on social media.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> No it is not.
> Unreasonable hyperbole is not sensible.



It’s no unreasonable


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> View attachment 508303
> 
> 
> View attachment 508304
> ...


Sends a message of hope to me. It looks like the people of Britain are starting to take things seriously. I make no mention of the government, they won't be able to protect people if the people don't protect themselves first.
Protect each other too.


----------



## vickster (13 Mar 2020)

midlife said:


> Hmm. Briefing this morning included not blabbing on social media.


Presumably you can blab about stuff just not your hospital and coronavirus?


----------



## Racing roadkill (13 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I reckon he's missed the ''this train terminates here'' announcement. He's off to the railway sidings.


There would be more people on the train if that was the case.


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Mar 2020)

There was me thinking the onset of summer would stall the epidemic. I wish I had not bothered enquiring. There are different opinions, short on data some professionals are saying that we in the northern hemisphere should not expect a reprieve before the next winter.


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> He will emerge 28 days later...


I used to emerge about an hour later after using the parked trains at my local station as somewhere to power nap a big session away before the march home.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (13 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...n-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive
> 
> Hmmm



If true, there goes the Herd Immunity theory down the toilet...


----------



## nickyboy (13 Mar 2020)

Tom Tom provides probably the best real time analysis of reduction in travel to/from work

Here's London, now







Reduction is happening


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (13 Mar 2020)

It can only have been the nudge unit’s idea to get the least trusted man in the nation’s history to tell us that any kind of mass public lockdown would be counterproductive at this stage. Because 20 minutes later, it was immediately like I Am Legend out there.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (13 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> I’m completely lost for words. And that is totally unprecedented. I really have nothing that I can say ( regarding this ). It’s mental. Beyond my comprehension, just completely mental.



I think it goes to show that a lot of office-based employment activity comprises spending a lot of time getting to and from work, then spending much of that work time participating in pointless meetings. Maybe one thing to come out of this will be people realising that much of it is not actually necessary, and businesses can still operate when all this nonsense doesn't take place.


----------



## Mike_P (13 Mar 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I think it goes to show that a lot of office-based employment activity comprises spending a lot of time getting to and from work, then spending much of that work time participating in pointless meetings. Maybe one thing to come out of this will be people realising that much of it is not actually necessary, and businesses can still operate when all this nonsense doesn't take place.


I can think of some at work who spend the vast majority of time in pointless meeting, maybe they will realise what a fraud they are and resign


----------



## kingrollo (13 Mar 2020)

In a week where selfish & stupid people have fought each other over bog rolls - and looked after number 1 - without thought for others...nice to watch Sport Releif surge past £32m in donations ...


----------



## mjr (13 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> In a week where selfish & stupid people have fought each other over bog rolls - and looked after number 1 - without thought for others...nice to watch Sport Releif surge past £32m in donations ...


Is this not a telethon to raise money for cure research?


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> It can only have been the nudge unit’s idea to get the least trusted man in the nation’s history to tell us that any kind of mass public lockdown would be counterproductive at this stage. Because 20 minutes later, it was immediately like I Am Legend out there.


I prefer the Charlton Heston version of the movie adaptations.


----------



## mjr (13 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The Italian link doesn't seem to have deterred people from ravaging the country's pasta stocks.


It's been in Italy first, so Italian food will be the first to build a natural immunity!


----------



## Captain Sensible (13 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> View: https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1238563294073384965?s=20


----------



## MarkF (13 Mar 2020)

Peed off I can't sort out the flights for me and my daughter, it was cycling Bilbao - Malaga in May.

The closure for 15 days, of all bars, clubs and pubs in the Valencia province, is producing comedy gold on the Benidorm Tripadvisor forum.

At work I now have to wear a mask all of the time in A&E, that's rattled me as I think they are useless and they cause to me to touch my face far more than I would without one. I've asked to be moved to another dept. Several staf with health issues have already gone on the sick. I am so manly that I won't know that I've had it.


----------



## midlife (13 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Presumably you can blab about stuff just not your hospital and coronavirus?



That probably covers it.....


----------



## Racing roadkill (13 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Peed off I can't sort out the flights for me and my daughter, it was cycling Bilbao - Malaga in May.
> 
> The closure for 15 days, of all bars, clubs and pubs in the Valencia province, is producing comedy gold on the Benidorm Tripadvisor forum.
> 
> At work I now have to wear a mask all of the time in A&E, that's rattled me as I think they are useless and they cause to me to touch my face far more than I would without one. I've asked to be moved to another dept. Several staf with health issues have already gone on the sick. I am so manly that I won't know that I've had it.


All bets are off. I was ( and still am ) 100 percent willing and able to lead my crew from Switzerland to England in June. My crew are 100 percent committed and able to do it. It looks like we are going to get the rug pulled from under us, so we won’t be able to do it. It’s like a bad dream, and when push comes to shove, caused by a virus, the likes of which the human race has seen on 6 previous occasions, and they have proved to have been really no great shakes, in the grand scheme of things. This one has appeared in the age of mass social media, and easy movement of populations ( cheap flights etc.) so it’s reached places that it never could have done previously, and been (irresponsibly) reported by people who would never have been given the time of day previously ( because they don’t understand concepts like editorial integrity / standards ) and those things don’t seem to count for anything now anyway. Bingo, perfect storm, the whole reason why social media free reigning is a really bad idea. Their complete hysteria / attention seeking / lookatmeishness, has caused real world massive problems. All any of us can do, is hang the white flags out, and let the idiots destroy themselves, it won’t take long. The rebuilding process might / will do. This is essentially exactly what an all out nuclear war would have done, but without any actual explosions, or any real world damage. It’s a very very odd situation, and I really don’t know where this train is heading. No one does.


----------



## PK99 (14 Mar 2020)

Virus light relief for a Friday Night


View: https://youtu.be/JE0TGFVquvM


----------



## Pat "5mph" (14 Mar 2020)

I will probably lose my job - no way I can work from home (catering)
I'm not worried, because I've got enough money to stay unemployed for a couple of months.
I feel for my current employer and his family: they have a small chain of coffee shops, no way they they'll survive financially a long stop to business.
I also have a small PR job, my events are getting cancelled.
The local Tesco was bare a few hours ago.
Baby formula is limited to two per purchaser: a friend of mine in another area of Glasgow could not get any in her local supermarkets.
I do have a health condition, but I don't think it makes me at risk of dying from the corona virus, so probably my hospital treatment for it will be cancelled.
I wonder if we will be allowed to ride our bikes?
In Italy, at the moment, movement by bike is forbidden if it's not for a valid reason, i.e. not for leisure.


----------



## Blue Hills (14 Mar 2020)

Hope things work out well for you pat.
On the bike thing in italy i posted a report on a chap being done by the police in samassi sardinia for being out on his bike, but didn't realise it was a national formal decree.
Why the rule? Seems to make no sense to me.
Are italians allowed to drive their beloved cars around? (As long as they don't of course leave any closed areas).


----------



## mjr (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> [...] been (irresponsibly) reported by people who would never have been given the time of day previously ( because they don’t understand concepts like editorial integrity / standards )


I agree with this bit. I think this virus is dangerous but it's also being reported very badly.



> This is essentially exactly what an all out nuclear war would have done, [...]


That sort of irresponsible comment is a big problem.


----------



## mjr (14 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> I wonder if we will be allowed to ride our bikes?
> In Italy, at the moment, movement by bike is forbidden if it's not for a valid reason, i.e. not for leisure.


I assume food shopping is a valid reason. Can I buy dinner a tomato at a time?


----------



## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Hope things work out well for you pat.
> On the bike thing in italy i posted a report on a chap being done by the police in samassi sardinia for being out on his bike, but didn't realise it was a national formal decree.
> Why the rule? Seems to make no sense to me.
> Are italians allowed to drive their beloved cars around? (As long as they don't of course leave any closed areas).



It is national. Loads of people done for bike riding, dog walming or walking on the beach.1

They aren't allowed to drive their cars around either. All areas are closed. Can't leave your commune.


----------



## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> I assume food shopping is a valid reason. Can I buy dinner a tomato at a time?



Not open at weekends though.


----------



## Fab Foodie (14 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> You're not telling me spag-bol is an Italian dish?


It’s not!


----------



## cookiemonster (14 Mar 2020)

Holy Moly. As is always the case, these powers will be vaguely worded, open to interpretation and never repealed. Police state anyone? The media here in Asia have just picked up on this and as many Asian nations were under military dictatorships until the ‘80s, they’re basically saying ‘Hang on! We’ve seen this before!’


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## tom73 (14 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> View attachment 508330
> View attachment 508331
> View attachment 508332
> View attachment 508333
> ...



Only time will tell 

Wonder if other HCP's will be paid just as Doctors are for filling in a death certificate? I doubt it some how they will probably stop paying everyone. It's also hoped that they change the form they use as it's not a simple quick sign here job. The form is many pagers and takes some time to fill in. If not and it get's as bad as they think. HCP's may never get away from the desk to do anything else.


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## Pale Rider (14 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> The form is many pages and takes some time to fill in.



For what it's worth, we can thank Dr Shipman for that.


----------



## nickyboy (14 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> For what it's worth, we can thank Dr Shipman for that.


I used to live in Hyde, Cheshire. When I moved there I needed to register with a GP. There were two options; luckily I chose the one across the road from Shipman's practice


----------



## Pale Rider (14 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I used to live in Hyde, Cheshire. When I moved there I needed to register with a GP. There were two options; luckily I chose the one across the road from Shipman's practice



A close shave, although I suppose you were too young to attract the interest of Dr Death.


----------



## Rusty Nails (14 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> View attachment 508330
> View attachment 508331
> View attachment 508332
> View attachment 508333
> ...


Some people really do abuse the use of the internet.
Don't worry, @Racing roadkill and his crew will ride across the continent to our rescue. Thank the Lord there are still some heroes in the country.


----------



## Fab Foodie (14 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I used to live in Hyde, Cheshire. When I moved there I needed to register with a GP. There were two options; luckily I chose the one across the road from Shipman's practice


Dead lucky....


----------



## BoldonLad (14 Mar 2020)

Starchivore said:


> Okay turns out I'm not going to Madrid. I was going to go anyway because my girlfriend is there, but the thing she's involved with there has closed so she's returning Sunday.
> 
> I was trying to figure out if the UK government is taking a sensible approach or not but then it dawned on me that I have no expertise and no idea. The UK's approach and Ireland's approach both seem to make sense for different reasons.


I am in Spain now (Valencia Privince), in a Motorhome. There has been a mass exodus of Brits. The other nationalities, (Swiss, German, Belgian, Dutch, French), appear to be sitting it out.


----------



## BoldonLad (14 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The government is going to abandon testing apart from the seriously ill in hospital. Suddenly we will be running blind on the scale. Are they crazy?


In all the talk of “testing”, how do we know the tests work? How reliable (ie how many false positives?).


----------



## BoldonLad (14 Mar 2020)

midlife said:


> Just out of curiosity is posting on here the same as using "social media"?


Yes, but worse, less diversity


----------



## The Crofted Crest (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Dead lucky....



My gran was even luckier. Shipman killed her next door neighbour. He also got a lot of people on my paper round.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

On the other side of the Atlantic Mr Trump has his work cut out for him if there are enough of these people.

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1236328720299933696


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## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

Roger Longbottom said:


> Imagine the quandary if they found the antidote to be nicotine!


Or MDMA


----------



## Fab Foodie (14 Mar 2020)

Roger Longbottom said:


> Imagine the quandary if they found the antidote / vaccine / cure (use as applicable) to be nicotine!


I’m still holding-out for alcohol as the cure....


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I’m still holding-out for alcohol as the cure....


I’m testing that theory out.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I’m still holding-out for alcohol as the cure....


I'm working on my zythotherapy cure. (As this is not yet a word, I suggest looking up zytho- )


----------



## Fab Foodie (14 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'm working on my zythotherapy cure. (As this is not yet a word, I suggest looking up zytho- )


I’m a believer....


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> View attachment 508330
> View attachment 508331
> View attachment 508332
> View attachment 508333
> ...


And this is precisely the sort of ‘fertiliser’ that has been causing a lot of the unnecessary panic. And It’s from Tw@er


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I’m still holding-out for alcohol as the cure....


65% ABV cask strength whisky is at the very least a good hand wash but its more effective if you drink it.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'm working on my zythotherapy cure. (As this is not yet a word, I suggest looking up zytho- )


There needs to be bottles with liquid, a palpable actual product, that sells. Ask Alex Jones if you don't believe me.


----------



## Mugshot (14 Mar 2020)




----------



## Fab Foodie (14 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> View attachment 508372


Issued by the Salt and Vinegar Marketing Board....


----------



## Pale Rider (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Issued by the Salt and Vinegar Marketing Board....



As children we used to call salt and vinegar crisps 'snotty vagina' crisps.

Juvenile, but that's what we were.


----------



## Fab Foodie (14 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> As children we used to call salt and vinegar crisps 'snotty vagina' crisps.
> 
> Juvenile, but that's what we were.


We were more middle class and had to make-do with Cheesy Bunion....


----------



## Mugshot (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Issued by the Salt and Vinegar Marketing Board....


Sponsored by Harry Ramsdens.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (14 Mar 2020)

What the Government has told us don't add up. If we follow their plan hundreds of thousands if not millions will die, and I am not scaremongering.

Let us look at the chart they talked about:







I have no quarrel with the red curve. The blue in relation to the horizontal dotted "NHS Potential Surge Capacity" line is however a BIG issue, and that associated with achieving "herd immunity" as Valance has repeatedly said. While there is no certainty herd immunity is real for COVID-19 (too early to know, unlike the common cold/flu), for a population to acquire herd immunity, the vast majority of them, like at least 60%, have to have caught it.

Regarding the "NHS Potential Surge Capacity" horizontal dotted line above, what we know, is that there are only roughly 3700 ICU beds, typically 80% occupied. Since nobody can suddenly produce many new ICU beds with all the associated lifesaving equipment that make them ICU beds in short notice, the "Surge Capacity" must have a max / cap of c3700, assuming somehow non-Coronavirus cases will not get any ICU bed time.

Knowing the maximum number of ICU beds available lets us assess the number the system can accommodate. Assuming the flattened peak lasting 3 months, and assuming highly optimistically each serious case only requires the ICU bed for 3 days, the total number the ICUs can accommodate over the 3 month period is 90 / 3 x 3700, or 111,000 seriously ill.

However, we also know at least 5% of infected will need intensive care (actually more like 10%, given c3.4 %actually die), but let us assume it is only 5%. Then the 111,000 figure, derived essentially from peak case hitting peak NHS surge capacity for 3 months, gives the total number of infected as 111,000 / 5%, or 2.2 millions.

The logical inconsistency of the government's rhetoric then, is that 2.2 millions having caught the virus is way less than c60% of the population of c60 millions (i.e. c36 millions) that will provide any herd immunity, if the maximum possible "Surge Capacity" in the NHS weren't to be completely overwhelmed.

Consequently if the population were to acquire herd immunity over the next few months, millions will have to die, because the NHS' ICUs will be no help, overwhelmed by a factor of c15 (36 millions divided by 2.2 millions) - it will make ICUs in Italy today look like a tea party!

Perhaps the government never had any intention to let the population acquire herd immunity. Then firstly why do they say it, secondly shouldn't they then have simply done everything to minimise the number infected asap for as long as possible, till the summer (which might help), and/or further down the road when a vaccine becomes available. This is what China, Singapore, Hongkong and now Korea have shown to be possible, while limiting fatalities to a tiny fraction of that implied above. Even 1% of 36 millions is 360,000 dead, which is over 100 times more than the fatality in China with a population of 1.4 billions. Why aren't the government, the CMO and the CSA doing and saying that?

So how much time do we have to avoid a bloodbath?

The CMO/CSA are right, the number of infected in UK has to be roughly 10,000 already - this kind of figure will eventually arise even if improbably no new infection occurs from today. What follows is if no fundamental change is to occur, the corresponding figure will be c50,000 in a week's time as a result of exponential growth, which as shown above will be stretching the NHS to well beyond their limits.

What that means, is we are at the cusp of the point of no return already.

Why don't the government/CMO/CSA show us the strategy, tell us their cogent rationale, supported by forecast figures? What "science" exactly are they relying on? Do they think the rest of the world don't have brilliant scientific brains? If their plan is so clever why not share it with the rest of the world for the benefit of mankind?

It is good to see that in spite of the Government/CMO/CSA, people here are starting to vote with their feet, by implementing social distancing themselves. Let's hope it is enough to stop the bloodbath.


----------



## cookiemonster (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> And this is precisely the sort of ‘fertiliser’ that has been causing a lot of the unnecessary panic. And It’s from Tw@er




https://www.thenational.scot/news/1...government-introduce-emergency-laws-outbreak/

You were saying?


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> https://www.thenational.scot/news/1...government-introduce-emergency-laws-outbreak/
> 
> You were saying?


It’s still complete over reaction. We’re not dealing with Ebola or plague. “Reasonable worst case” based on what? The vast majority of people have been proven to be asymptotic, or show very mild symptoms. What are they basing their “best worst” scenario on exactly?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (14 Mar 2020)

Lumme, metropolitan élite out early panic buying sourdough bread!! Where will it end?


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Lumme, metropolitan élite out early panic buying sourdough bread!! Where will it end?


NOT THE SOURDOUGH, OH THE HUMANITY


----------



## BoldonLad (14 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> What the Government has told us don't add up. If we follow their plan hundreds of thousands if not millions will die, and I am not scaremongering.
> 
> Let us look at the chart they talked about:
> 
> ...


Amazing! Why has no-one else worked this out?

Don’t panic


----------



## Kryton521 (14 Mar 2020)

Mmmmm....... Just wondering if this isn't all getting a bit hyped up? Plus, and you won't like me for this. If the "worst case blah blah" comes about, the biggest majority of fatalities will be the elderly, the sick and diseased? And since no one but an ardent brexshiteer will ever believe that there isn't going to be an extra 350 quid thrown at the NHS, well it'll thin the herd


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Issued by the Salt and Vinegar Marketing Board....


So eat a nice fish supper with plenty of salt and vim followed by a glass of water, the British way.


----------



## Dave7 (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I’m still holding-out for alcohol as the cure....


We have been dosing on it and appear to be virus free at the moment.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Lumme, metropolitan élite out early panic buying sourdough bread!! Where will it end?


Jesus please don't tell me they've stripped out the Hummus and Guacamole too!


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> We have been dosing on it and appear to be virus free at the moment.


Yes but what percent ABV? This is important, anything less than 60% leaves you open to infection and not bladdered enough not to give a toss.


----------



## BoldonLad (14 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> So eat a nice fish supper with plenty of salt and vim followed by a glass of water, the British way.


Water?


----------



## Dave7 (14 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Yes but what percent ABV? This is important, anything less than 60% leaves you open to infection and not bladdered enough not to give a toss.


Yes I realise that. I'm not stupid you know.
I can only get 40 proof so have been doubling up on it. Got it sussed I have


----------



## oldfatfool (14 Mar 2020)

Sh!t just got real, residents in yorksire have been told "put t' kettle on!"


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## Dave7 (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I’m a believer....


Praise the Lord and sign me up. I am also a believer


----------



## Pale Rider (14 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> What the Government has told us don't add up. If we follow their plan hundreds of thousands if not millions will die, and I am not scaremongering.
> 
> Let us look at the chart they talked about:
> 
> ...



You can argue the figures, but the government strategy makes sense.

Taking a timespan of the remainder of the year, we have a largely fixed daily capacity to deal with serious corona cases - there's little way to increase that in the time available.

Reducing the overall number of serious cases looks impossible, so it makes sense to attempt to take them over a greater number of days to avoid being swamped for a shorter period.

'Flattening the sombrero' as Boris said.


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Amazing! Why has no-one else worked this out?
> 
> Don’t panic


Millions won’t die.


----------



## Nigeyy (14 Mar 2020)

Was curious what people on here make of this:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...rus-outbreak-leaving-some-asking-why-n1157831


----------



## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> You can argue the figures, but the government strategy makes sense.



The government strategy makes sense, the issues around it is there was no detail about what to do to isolate/look after those over 50 and especially those over 70. Don't go on cruise ships. Comedy. Detailed guidance and plans about looking after people in care homes, ban on visits, other things. 

The testing strategy also sounds a bit airy fairy. It seems the UK either got very lucky or contact tracing worked much better than say (Wuhan, Washington State or Northern Italy).

Two countries have talked mightily about new testing coming on board, with Trump giving specific timescales. I just don't know how realistic this is, but if a test v2 comes out that'd be mighty useful.


----------



## Levo-Lon (14 Mar 2020)

Dad's in Spain, lives there.
All gone panic buying mad,shutting everything down...fooked up everything so you are stuck at home and the shops are empty.


----------



## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

Nigeyy said:


> Was curious what people on here make of this:
> 
> https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...rus-outbreak-leaving-some-asking-why-n1157831



Fair summary of what people think.

One of the main issues around self isolating is 'when' are people the most infectious. The government's advice seems to be that it's just as you show symptoms and those 3 days. Other research elsewhere in the world being regurgitated in the media seems to suggest the opposite, that the most infectious bit is the days before visible symptoms.


----------



## Levo-Lon (14 Mar 2020)

We need instant punishment for panic buying ,freeze there fooking bank accounts,and confiscate cash..so infuriating, why do the morons always take the pisz


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (14 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> View attachment 508372



Is there medical/scientific proof of this? Or are you posting some random guff off Facebook?


----------



## Buck (14 Mar 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> Is there medical/scientific proof of this? Or are you posting some random guff off Facebook?



the latter I’d suggest.


----------



## Mugshot (14 Mar 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> Is there medical/scientific proof of this? Or are you posting some random guff off Facebook?


Total guff.


----------



## stowie (14 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> We need instant punishment for panic buying ,freeze there fooking bank accounts,and confiscate cash..so infuriating, why do the morons always take the pisz



Vehicle queues for local Costco was causing significant jams on the N. Circular today. Due to their membership requirements, I expect the majority of their customers are small businesses presumably stocking up after seeing much increased demand this week.

Still no toilet roll virtually anywhere. This is becoming plain stupid. What are people doing with all this bog roll? What are they expecting? That they intend to spend the entire two week isolation constantly on the toilet?


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (14 Mar 2020)

The only reason I can think of is that it's cheaper than tissues, and people are listening to the catch it, bin it, kill it advice. Either that or they soil their pants every time someone near them sneezes...


----------



## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> Still no toilet roll virtually anywhere. This is becoming plain stupid. What are people doing with all this bog roll? What are they expecting? That they intend to spend the entire two week isolation constantly on the toilet?



Bog roll is one people tend to panic buy as well as cat food, salt, bread and milk and sometimes bizarely a few other things. Happens a few times a year. Not like this. I don't bother to read much retail stuff now but I'd imagine the situation will look a bit better by Tue/Wed when the weekly cycle starts to balance it out a bit.


----------



## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

When I run out of loo paper, I'm going to use newspaper. I'm cutting up some sheets in preparation. I've also found that I can get all the fruit, veg and pies that I want from the store on the corner. It's run by a nice Iranian man and he sources all his stock locally. I don't envisage any shortages......if I run out of gin, I know where Fabbers and Wimpers live. I'll be going round there....


----------



## lazybloke (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> It’s still complete over reaction. We’re not dealing with Ebola or plague. “Reasonable worst case” based on what? The vast majority of people have been proven to be asymptotic, or show very mild symptoms. What are they basing their “best worst” scenario on exactly?


No one knows how many will be infected but computer models, experiences in other countries, and knowledge of past pandemics tell us that precautions are v sensible.

Yes the majority only suffer mild symptoms but 20% (of detected cases) require hospitalisation. If the hospitals are rammed full (because of insufficient action to slow the disease) then how many of those 20% will prove fatal?


----------



## MontyVeda (14 Mar 2020)

We've been getting regular (albeit reduced) daily supplies of loo roll in the store i work in, although not as much as usual. I expect it's being rationed to ensure each store gets a daily supply. Sales have been up in the region of 20-25% all week, with tinned food and pasta (and loo roll, of course) being big sellers... great for our productivity score , not so great for those who shop late and just want some beans or a tin of peas.

In other news... the shop floor rumour is the home Office are preparing for the UK to be on total lock down in a fortnight.


----------



## GM (14 Mar 2020)

I think she's got the right idea...


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

lazybloke said:


> No one knows how many will be infected but computer models, experiences in other countries, and knowledge of past pandemics tell us that precautions are v sensible.
> 
> Yes the majority only suffer mild symptoms but 20% (of detected cases) require hospitalisation. If the hospitals are rammed full (because of insufficient action to slow the disease) then how many of those 20% will prove fatal?


The actual numbers ( not percentages ) will be underwhelming. The rate at which they appear will be underwhelming. If this is the modern world’s reaction to something that ( mostly ) just causes sniffles / coughs / headaches ( pretty much seasonal flu) lord help us if something serious emerges.


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)




----------



## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> If this is the modern world’s reaction to something that ( mostly ) just causes sniffles / coughs / headaches ( pretty much seasonal flu) lord help us if something serious emerges.


I personally think it is serious. I'm 63 and I have never seen anything like this that has had such an impact on the medics that are treating it. You might end up asymptomatic but there's been plenty of cases of doctors who have died as a result of simply going to work and treating infected patients.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (14 Mar 2020)

Another 10 UK deaths, placing the UK in 4th position of the new deaths tally. Lockdown is looking ever more likely, IMO


----------



## Mugshot (14 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> We've been getting regular (albeit reduced) daily supplies of loo roll in the store i work in, although not as much as usual. I expect it's being rationed to ensure each store gets a daily supply. Sales have been up in the region of 20-25% all week, with tinned food and pasta (and loo roll, of course) being big sellers... great for our productivity score , not so great for those who shop late and just want some beans or a tin of peas.
> 
> In other news... the shop floor rumour is the home Office are preparing for the UK to be on total lock down in a fortnight.


Do you work for one of the big boys?


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> We need instant punishment for panic buying ,freeze there fooking bank accounts,and confiscate cash..so infuriating, why do the morons always take the pisz


I fear this will become the norm.

View: https://twitter.com/M_Davieswrites/status/1238728814110355457


----------



## mjr (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> NOT THE SOURDOUGH, OH THE HUMANITY


It's funny really. I was wondering if I might have to switch to sourdough when my dried organic yeast stock runs out, but that's a good few weeks away yet, so I hope I'll be able to find more first. Why the fark would you panic buy it? Second rate bread, that is.


----------



## oldfatfool (14 Mar 2020)

Very soon, Marshall law


----------



## lazybloke (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> The actual numbers ( not percentages ) will be underwhelming. The rate at which they appear will be underwhelming. If this is the modern world’s reaction to something that ( mostly ) just causes sniffles / coughs / headaches ( pretty much seasonal flu) lord help us if something serious emerges.


5,616 deaths as of 14:51 on 14th March 2020.
You might find that "underwhelming" now, but how many have to die before you change your mind?

You may have faith that the numbers will stay small.
But governments around the world have a duty to assess and manage risk in a responsible way.
Actions taken early can result in the worst outcomes being avoided.
In other words, the most successful strategies can appear to have been a waste of time, but are anything but.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (14 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Amazing! *Why has no-one else worked this out*?
> 
> Don’t panic



If you had looked, you would have noticed others have indeed worked it out, because this Government's response is more and more at odd with relevant countries that matter by the day, and indeed WHO guidelines, while without providing anything near cogent and detailed justification.

I am not panicking. Me and my family are not old or unfit enough to be at any significant risk. I feel deeply for the millions who are though.

I don't mean to be rude, as they say debate is neither required nor indeed appropriate for maths, so what is "amazing", is instead of posting their views based on reason and logic, people resort to blind faith or rhetoric instead. 

It might have something to do with the island mentality, or the superiority complex derived from the position achieved based on said island environment a few hundred years ago, which in case they haven't noticed has long been lost.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (14 Mar 2020)

Apologies if already posted - decent sets of stat's:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I personally think it is serious. I'm 63 and I have never seen anything like this that has had such an impact on the medics that are treating it. You might end up asymptomatic but there's been plenty of cases of doctors who have died as a result of simply going to work and treating infected patients.


Not in the U.K. there haven’t.


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## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Not in the U.K. there haven’t.


Diseases don’t respect borders.


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Diseases don’t respect borders.


They do respect different levels of control, based on cultural differences, and hygiene regs though.


----------



## Unkraut (14 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> the home Office are preparing for the UK to be on total lock down in a fortnight.


Lockdown here (Baden-Württemberg) was enacted today under emergency regulations. All schools from Kindergarten to university are closed, all public meetings including where fewer than 100 people will be present (except church or other religious gatherings) have been prohibited. Open air meetings severely restricted, but zoos and markets remain open.The border with France is being closely monitored, as the area around Strassburg has a relatively high number of cases. This will apply up to Easter when it will be reviewed.

Govt has promised aid to try to help firms carry on for the immediate future, and medics who retired in the recent past are being asked to return to work to ease the load on the healthcare system, especially if current staff go down with the virus in largish numbers.

I was due to go to the UK for a week from next Wednesday via ferry, but the event I wanted to go to has been cancelled, and I am not sure it is worth it any longer. Not quite made my mind up yet. I doubt if the chance of infection is any greater than staying put, but I suspect 'if in doubt don't' would be best policy. Might be understandable hassle trying to get back, and my better half may need to get back from New Zealand early. Not good timing!


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

lazybloke said:


> 5,616 deaths as of 14:51 on 14th March 2020.
> You might find that "underwhelming" now, but how many have to die before you change your mind?
> 
> You may have faith that the numbers will stay small.
> ...


It’s a moving target. As the weather improves, people will get out more, reduce transmission opportunities, and it will stabilise.


----------



## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> They do respect different levels of control, based on cultural differences, and hygiene regs though.


Doctors have still been infected and died in unprecedented numbers. I know you are looking at the UK but some of us are concerned about the bigger picture. Some of us have close relatives who are frontline staff.


----------



## Blue Hills (14 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> We need instant punishment for panic buying ,freeze there fooking bank accounts,and confiscate cash..



How on earth would you implement that?

Are you a budding dictator?


----------



## kingrollo (14 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Lockdown here (Baden-Württemberg) was enacted today under emergency regulations. All schools from Kindergarten to university are closed, all public meetings including where fewer than 100 people will be present (except church or other religious gatherings) have been prohibited. Open air meetings severely restricted, but zoos and markets remain open.The border with France is being closely monitored, as the area around Strassburg has a relatively high number of cases. This will apply up to Easter when it will be reviewed.
> 
> Govt has promised aid to try to help firms carry on for the immediate future, and medics who retired in the recent past are being asked to return to work to ease the load on the healthcare system, especially if current staff go down with the virus in largish numbers.
> 
> I was due to go to the UK for a week from next Wednesday via ferry, but the event I wanted to go to has been cancelled, and I am not sure it is worth it any longer. Not quite made my mind up yet. I doubt if the chance of infection is any greater than staying put, but I suspect 'if in doubt don't' would be best policy. Might be understandable hassle trying to get back, and my better half may need to get back from New Zealand early. Not good timing!


There was interview in the independent - with a hospital official - who said the plan to bring retired doctors back and fast track junior doctors - was just talk - nothing is actually happening on the ground to make that happen


----------



## kingrollo (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> It’s a moving target. As the weather improves, people will get out more, reduce transmission opportunities, and it will stabilise.


???????
People getting out more would increase transmission ? Hence the lockdowns around the world ?


----------



## Smokin Joe (14 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Apologies if already posted - decent sets of stat's:
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/


The 80,000 cases represent 0.000056% of the population of China, around 1.42 billion. This is in the country whose denial and inaction during the important early stages of the outbreak led to the extent of the spread. So while this shouldn't be taken lightly there is no call for the mass hysteria some people are letting themselves get sucked into.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (14 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> You can argue the figures, but the government strategy makes sense.
> 
> Taking a timespan of the remainder of the year, we have a largely fixed daily capacity to deal with serious corona cases - there's little way to increase that in the time available.
> 
> ...



Do you really know what the Government's strategy is? I do not. The Government has given their aim, which as you say is 'Flattening the sombrero'. But what have they done that you actually think will achieve flattening the exponential growth curve? 

I know what the Chinese, or the Koreans, have done to flatten their growth curve.

Do you think washing hands and telling the oldies to stop going on cruises will stop the exponential growth of cases identified we are seeing every day? Perhaps they will, because one of the things the government have decided, is not to test those with symptoms any more, only those who end up in hospital.

An aim is not a strategy. Aim can be wishful, or based on erroneous assumptions/calculations because someone got it wrong, or they simply have entirely different priorities to yours. 

Given the growth is clearly exponential, what do you think waiting a few days/weeks' implication will be?


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Doctors have still been infected and died in unprecedented numbers. I know you are looking at the UK but some of us are concerned about the bigger picture. Some of us have close relatives who are frontline staff.


Relax. The U.K. has far better hygiene standards than the rest of the world ( pretty much ) if you keep panicking unnecessarily, you’ll add to the problem.


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> There was interview in the independent - with a hospital official - who said the plan to bring retired doctors back and fast track junior doctors - was just talk - nothing is actually happening on the ground to make that happen


Usual media driven rubbish basically.


----------



## Blue Hills (14 Mar 2020)

Can I ask what advice folk are giving elderly relatives?

I understand that current government advice is that they should not stay in.

That the time for that will be when the thing hits its peak.

But surely to have hit that peak lots and lots of folk will have got the thing and many more will have died, the majority of them elderly?

Are they just spinning a line to avoid panic?

Or doing some calculation based on a concept of "greater good"?

Though it will be a long drag I can't help but think that the best advice is for old folk to just stay in.

Views?


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> ???????
> People getting out more would increase transmission ? Hence the lockdowns around the world ?


Not so, look for the advice from the chief scientific advisor. It’s out there ( in Tw@er and Bookface as well) ironically. It shows that once you break up close communal situations, these types of infections typically reduce.


----------



## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Relax. The U.K. has far better hygiene standards than the rest of the world ( pretty much ) if you keep panicking unnecessarily, you’ll add to the problem.


And do you have any evidence for this statement? It seems very imperialist to me. The UK will be ok because we wash our hands more thoroughly than other countries and never sneeze in public.

Oh, I’m not sure where you get the idea I’m panicking. I’m not. I’m quite sanguine about it.


----------



## Blue Hills (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Not so, look for the advice from the chief scientific advisor. It’s out there ( in Tw@er and Bookface as well) ironically.


can you outline/explain this?


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> And do you have any evidence for this statement? It seems very imperialist to me. The UK will be ok because we wash our hands more thoroughly than other countries and never sneeze in public.


Although your comment was tongue in cheek, you actually hit the nail on the head.


----------



## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Although your comment was tongue in cheek, you actually hit the nail on the head.


Wrong. Just look at threads on CC and Twitter about people sneezing on shop assistants for example.

edit: hope this helps


View: https://twitter.com/_curious_one/status/1238788012596748289?s=21


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Wrong. Just look at threads on CC and Twitter about people sneezing on shop assistants for example.


Yeah, ignore Tw@er, it’s a great source of unfounded bullshit.


----------



## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Yeah, ignore Tw@er, it’s a great source of unfounded bullshit.


As are some of the ill informed posts here. BTW my wife is a Prof of Medicine and my younger son is an A&E doctor. So you forgive me if I don’t take any of your advice.


----------



## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Can I ask what advice folk are giving elderly relatives?
> 
> I understand that current government advice is that they should not stay in.
> 
> Views?



That people have no protection against this, none. That they got mindbendingly lucky in 2009-10 with swine flu and that raged around the student and people under 30 population like wildwire. That this one seems pretty consistent with being very deadly for compromised immune systems and heart/breathing/other problems. Point out to them that they've been in hospital before for pneumonia.

Minimise trips outside, prepare for whole weeks inside. Particularly avoid children who are believed to spread it easier and those who are highly mobile such as affluent students, academics, business people or anyone that doesn't have a boring job and doesn't have a limited social life e.g. work/home/work/home/work/home.

Wash hands for at least 20 seconds up to the wrists, do this around 20 times a day, particularly after hands are touching things and going from one activity to another. If talking to someone try and remain in the habit of being a metre away, imagine them coughing over you as according to some tropical disease specialists the respiratory side of this is spread by coughing (over people and surfaces). Is this person far enough away? Imagine if someone else in your household had the virus and wasn't showing any symptoms yet, what would you do differently and what would you tell them to do differently?

Wash non-porous surfaces such as mobile phones every day with soap and water. Other ones like all door handles in the house. Look at tea towel and towel washing frequency and separation.


----------



## MontyVeda (14 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Do you work for one of the big boys?


not one of the 'big four'


----------



## Dave7 (14 Mar 2020)

GM said:


> I think she's got the right idea...
> 
> View attachment 508383


Nearly crying laughing over that one.


----------



## Accy cyclist (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Wrong. Just look at threads on CC and Twitter about people sneezing on shop assistants for example.
> 
> edit: hope this helps
> 
> ...



'
Marie Salisbury@_curious_one

_'I work for a supermarket, I cannot participate with social distancing & ive had customers sneeze & cough on me. It’s truly disgusting. I’m also sick of grief we are getting due to lack of stock or restrictions, I don’t make the rules & I didn’t panic buy so pls don’t abuse me.'_


Shop workers have always born the brunt of customers germ spreading and aggression. The former Mrs Accy used to tell of 'fully grown men' threatening female staff,even waiting to confront them outside after their shift was over,if there wasn't something available they just had to have. We live apart now,so i don't know how her and her colleagues are coping,but i bet they've had to put up with some right fecking @rse holes!!


----------



## Dave7 (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I personally think it is serious. I'm 63 and I have never seen anything like this that has had such an impact on the medics that are treating it. You might end up asymptomatic but there's been plenty of cases of doctors who have died as a result of simply going to work and treating infected patients.


63......a mere child


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (14 Mar 2020)

For those who support the Government's stance, or think it is all an over-reaction, what exactly has the government done so far that should have stopped or will stop the exponential growth to date as shown below?







What is going to stop the exponential growth for the next week or two, when the already infected over the past week show their symptoms and develop their complications, day after day?

This is when we all know infection can be curtailed, without waiting until hitting a bloodbath like in Italy, as amply demonstrated below:


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> As are some of the ill informed posts here. BTW my wife is a Prof of Medicine and my younger son is an A&E doctor. So you forgive me if I don’t take any of your advice.


Do what you like, I don’t give a crap.


----------



## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> I don’t give a crap.


Good job as there's a shortage of loo rolls.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Racing roadkill said:
> 
> 
> > Do what you like, I don’t give a crap.
> ...



It is always fascinating to watch Darwinian selection in real time!


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> It is always fascinating to watch Darwinian selection in real time!


Quite right. Survival of the fittest ( me) at the expense of dross.


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/51888491
Good to see someone has their head screwed on.


----------



## Mugshot (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Oh, I’m not sure where you get the idea I’m panicking. I’m not. I’m quite sanguine about it.


It's quite extraordinarily rude and selfish: stop panicking, stop being hysterical, we're all going to die anyway, it's not that big of a deal, I don't give a crap or a cheeky winky smilie.
People are posting in this thread explaining their health problems or those of their loved ones, sharing the knowledge and experiences of those on the frontline. They're not panicking or being hysterical, they're concerned. What a shame to see such a lack of empathy for our fellows, how low we have sunk.


----------



## Pale Rider (14 Mar 2020)

I was talking to the nurses in the hospital unit I now have to attend regularly.

Their attitude was surprisingly laid back.

Until you understand many of them have been dealing with illnesses for years, and have seen 'killer viruses' come and go in the past.

While they don't have a corona plan, they more or less know what they would do if the virus hits their unit - patients or staff - based on past experience.

I found their attitude quite reassuring.

The last thing you want is for those tasked with helping you as a patient to panic and start charging around like headless chickens.


----------



## Mugshot (14 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I was talking to the nurses in the hospital unit I now have to attend regularly.
> 
> There attitude was surprisingly laid back.
> 
> ...


This from the BBC;

_A group of Spanish nurses have appealed to people to obey the quarantine measures and stay at home.

"We are afraid. Although we attend to you with a smile, we are scared," they wrote in a Facebook post.

"We have families, like you. Please do not aggravate the problem. We can't do more, we are saturated."._

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51886497 (It's the live feed so may not be on the page if you look)


----------



## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

The government's strategy is a strategy and it's to last for around 18 months. We know it is, because the generalities of it were discussed in late January/early February.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/answering-the-coronavirus-puzzles-baby-covid-19

is an interesting piece. What is happening with children? Is it one of the reasons why the UK government wants to keep schools open for the moment? 

In terms of singapore and places like that it's basically hoping for one or more out of three of 1) faster cheaper tests 2) a vaccine 3) remdesivir or something else working.


----------



## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I was talking to the nurses in the hospital unit I now have to attend regularly.
> 
> There attitude was surprisingly laid back.
> 
> ...


I agree with what you have written there. My wife was thinking back to her days at medical school where they were told that at some stage they might die as a result of being a doctor. It's a choice that she made. One of our dear friends was the first doctor on the scene after the 7/7 bombings in London's Tavistock Square. He talks about having an overwhelming sense of calm as his training kicked in. Only later did he realise the dangers of another bomb and what that might mean for him, his family and the public (who were trying to help). Panic was not on the agenda.


----------



## Rusty Nails (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> It’s a moving target. As the weather improves, people will get out more, reduce transmission opportunities, and it will stabilise.


----------



## Fab Foodie (14 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> We have been dosing on it and appear to be virus free at the moment.


Somebody else has the same idea judging by Sainsbury’s in Deal this afternoon....


----------



## mjr (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Yeah, ignore Tw@er, it’s a great source of unfounded bullshit.


Almost as bad as the N&CA section of this site, indeed!


----------



## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Somebody else has the same idea judging by Sainsbury’s in Deal this afternoon....
> 
> View attachment 508400


Blimey!! It is time to panic when all that's left to drink is Carling and Fosters.


----------



## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Somebody else has the same idea judging by Sainsbury’s in Deal this afternoon....



Go and visit at 7am/8am on Tuesday/Wednesday.


----------



## Pale Rider (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I agree with what you have written there. My wife was thinking back to her days at medical school where they were told that at some stage they might die as a result of being a doctor. It's a choice that she made. One of our dear friends was the first doctor on the scene after the 7/7 bombings in London's Tavistock Square. He talks about having an overwhelming sense of calm as his training kicked in. Only later did he realise the dangers of another bomb and what that might mean for him, his family and the public (who were trying to help). Panic was not on the agenda.



I'm sure that attitude is all but universal among health care staff.

As a comparison, at the court I've seen members of the public, including jurors, witnesses and defendants, get terribly upset in certain situations.

Those of us who are season ticket holders barely bat an eyelid, having seen most things, if not often, certainly on several occasions, in the past.


----------



## Rusty Nails (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Quite right. Survival of the fittest ( me) at the expense of dross.



Do you have to work hard at being objectionable or is it a skill you have a flair for?


----------



## Pale Rider (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Somebody else has the same idea judging by Sainsbury’s in Deal this afternoon....
> 
> View attachment 508400



Looks like it's the bargain basement stuff on the bottom shelf that's been cleared.

Cheapskates.

I trust there's ale of a higher quality in stock at Fabbers Towers.


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Do you have to work hard at being objectionable or is it a skill you have a flair for?


I’m a natural.


----------



## Mugshot (14 Mar 2020)

My wife works in a care home, they had a Tesco delivery today and the gaffer had ordered the max that he could (the rationing amounts are automatic on the online ordering system apparently) of various items, so, 5 packs of 18/24 bog rolls, they got 1 pack of 6. There are 15 residents in the home.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (14 Mar 2020)

Don't worry about the lack of toilet rolls - us Brits have a history of leading the way in sheet (haha!) management:

https://factourism.com/facts/toilet-paper-rations/


----------



## Racing roadkill (14 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> View attachment 508399


Yeah, wait and see, come back in a week or two.


----------



## Dave Davenport (14 Mar 2020)

Just been speaking to my parents who are at their apartment in southern Spain, they're both high risk if they get the virus and can't decide whether to fly home (whilst they can) and risk getting it whilst traveling or hunker down where they are.


----------



## Dave7 (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/51888491
> Good to see someone has their head screwed on.


In July?? Best of luck with that.
Seriously I wish them well but can't see it happening.


----------



## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> Just been speaking to my parents who are at their apartment in southern Spain, they're both high risk if they get the virus and can't decide whether to fly home (whilst they can) and risk getting it whilst traveling or hunker down where they are.


Oh goodness, that's a difficult one. I suppose it depends on what their local health services are like in Spain. I do hope everything works out for them and they stay healthy.


----------



## Dave7 (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Blimey!! It is time to panic when all that's left to drink is Carling and Fosters.


Have to agree with you there. True this... I went to someones house a while ago and they offered me a beer. All they had was Carling. I declined


----------



## tom73 (14 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> For what it's worth, we can thank Dr Shipman for that.


Not just that a whole other stuff like holding on to syringe drivers for weeks some times months after death.


----------



## Mugshot (14 Mar 2020)

UK and Ireland added to US ban.


View: https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1238867469676224512?s=20


----------



## Blue Hills (14 Mar 2020)

Any truth in rumours he burns his baseball caps after every media appearance as his contribution to virus hygiene?


----------



## Dave Davenport (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Oh goodness, that's a difficult one. I suppose it depends on what their local health services are like in Spain. I do hope everything works out for them and they stay healthy.


The local health service has been fantastic in the past but who knows how they'll cope with this situation, the dilemma is how much they'd be increasing their risk by flying set against they'd rather be here with family support etc.


----------



## tom73 (14 Mar 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> Is there medical/scientific proof of this? Or are you posting some random guff off Facebook?


What do you think ? It's total round shaped objects


----------



## Fab Foodie (14 Mar 2020)

Good article....
https://talbotspy.org/letter-from-toronto-an-infectious-diseases-specialist-reflects-on-corvid-19/


----------



## Mugshot (14 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Any truth in rumours he burns his baseball caps after every media appearance as his contribution to virus hygiene?


I'm assuming he's wearing it while his wig is being disinfected.


----------



## nickyboy (14 Mar 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> The local health service has been fantastic in the past but who knows how they'll cope with this situation, the dilemma is how much they'd be increasing their risk by flying set against they'd rather be here with family support etc.


They need to be wherever gives them the best care. They need to decide quickly because it looks like Spain will close borders in the same way as Italy soon. If I had parents in a similar situation I would be tempted to bring them back to UK as I suspect if they close borders they will remain closed for several months


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (14 Mar 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> The local health service has been fantastic in the past but who knows how they'll cope with this situation, the dilemma is how much they'd be increasing their risk by flying set against they'd rather be here with family support etc.



Spain is about 6 days ahead of us (i.e. we will be like Spain in about 6 days), but it would appear Madrid has a high concentration of cases. One thing worth considering, whether they are staying or joining you, is which local health service is likely to be more overwhelmed, which has got to do with quality/size of hospitals in relation to number and age/health of the nearby population, and what initiatives the respective countries have taken to stop it exploding.

For example, IF anybody can fly into Hongkong now*, they can more or less guarantee 100% top class healthcare over the next month or two, whether they caught it on the flight or not.

* think they have just stopped entry from Schengen today


----------



## Rocky (14 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Good article....
> https://talbotspy.org/letter-from-toronto-an-infectious-diseases-specialist-reflects-on-corvid-19/


Yes, I agree that is a good article. The Prof tells me that the main concern is that the NHS will be overwhelmed and that difficult choices will have to be made. FWIW she thinks Whitty and Vallance are doing a good job and following what science there is. There have been all sorts of calls to get doctors and medical scientists (to do the testing) into work. She has been working all weekend on advice, guidelines and support for GP video consultations - there'll be much more of this happening in the next few weeks.


----------



## stowie (14 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Bog roll is one people tend to panic buy as well as *cat food, salt, bread and milk* and sometimes bizarely a few other things. Happens a few times a year. Not like this. I don't bother to read much retail stuff now but I'd imagine the situation will look a bit better by Tue/Wed when the weekly cycle starts to balance it out a bit.



If that is what they intend to eat during the crisis, I can totally see why they might need to stock up on toilet paper....


----------



## BoldonLad (14 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> If you had looked, you would have noticed others have indeed worked it out, because this Government's response is more and more at odd with relevant countries that matter by the day, and indeed WHO guidelines, while without providing anything near cogent and detailed justification.
> 
> I am not panicking. Me and my family are not old or unfit enough to be at any significant risk. I feel deeply for the millions who are though.
> 
> ...


In my 70’s, with two chronic conditions, not feeling in the least superior, but, am staying calm.


----------



## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Yes, I agree that is a good article. The Prof tells me that the main concern is that the NHS will be overwhelmed and that difficult choices will have to be made. FWIW she thinks Whitty and Vallance are doing a good job and following what science there is. There have been all sorts of calls to get doctors and medical scientists (to do the testing) into work. She has been working all weekend on advice, guidelines and support for GP video consultations - there'll be much more of this happening in the next few weeks.



Spain now/have had 293 serious/critical cases which is looking scary, especially as it seems concentrated in some areas (although I don't speak spanish so much less of an idea what's going on there than in Italy which has got so bad reporting is drying up).


----------



## Mugshot (14 Mar 2020)

Some poll results from late Feb and now


----------



## Rezillo (14 Mar 2020)

For those who think this is all a huge over-reaction, why not go to the Lancet for something rather more objective about what is happening in Italy, whose footsteps we are walking in:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9/fulltext

From its conclusion:

"We predict that if the exponential trend continues for the next few days, more than 2500 hospital beds for patients in intensive care units will be needed in only 1 week to treat ARDS caused by SARS-CoV-2-pneumonia in Italy. In the meantime, the government is preparing to pass legislation that will enable the health service to hire 20 000 more doctors and nurses and to provide 5000 more ventilators to Italian hospitals. These measures are a step in the right direction, but our model tells us that they need to be implemented urgently, in a matter of days. Otherwise, a substantial number of unnecessary deaths will become inevitable. Intensive care specialists are already considering denying life-saving care to the sickest and giving priority to those patients most likely to survive when deciding who to provide ventilation to. This attitude has already been criticised by the current President of the Italian Comitato di Bioetica who, in a recent declaration to lay press stated that the Constitution recognises the right of every individual to receive all necessary health care. They might not recognise that the reality is that intensive care wards are overflowing with patients and that COVID-19 is not a benign disease".


----------



## BoldonLad (14 Mar 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> Just been speaking to my parents who are at their apartment in southern Spain, they're both high risk if they get the virus and can't decide whether to fly home (whilst they can) and risk getting it whilst traveling or hunker down where they are.


We have made that decision, currently sitting tight in Valencia Province. So far, plenty of essential supplies (vino tinto), and, sunshine. No complaints.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> All bets are off. I was ( and still am ) 100 percent willing and able to lead my crew from Switzerland to England in June. My crew are 100 percent committed and able to do it. It looks like we are going to get the rug pulled from under us, so we won’t be able to do it. It’s like a bad dream, and when push comes to shove, ....[snipped braggadocio]




*“Pffft, don’t know what all the fuss is about, I’ll get through there no prob....”*







*“Erm, hello, fire and rescue?”*


----------



## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> For those who think this is all a huge over-reaction, why not go to the Lancet for something rather more objective about what is happening in Italy, whose footsteps we are walking in:



The numbers in Lodi (and a few neighbouring provinces too) now are totally insane. This had 10 municipaliities within Lodi and 1 in veneto that were locked down* on 22nd of February. In theory with what some virologists are saying about infection and deaths being about a month apart on average, depending on your point of view this won't stop for another week, or maybe even longer. The 2nd lockdown also had neighbouring provinces effected badly (which was why they were doing that). Now some of the provinces in the south are reporting relatively large numbers of cases vs most other bits of the world.

*The lockdown in Lodi/2nd lockdown as well wasn't stuck to and everyone in Italy knows it sadly.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (14 Mar 2020)

If you want to take a peep at what they see in an Intensive Care Unit in Seattle USA, below is an anonymous report posted on Twitter, it is very medically technical, but fortunately a medical PhD student has taken the trouble to "translate" it for non-medical folks and put it alongside the original text:

PDF link:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/u7yubwfittg8sv6/SeattleICU.pdf

Google Doc:
https://t.co/qHhGSk1yqG?amp=1


----------



## Mike_P (14 Mar 2020)

In the absence of any toilet rolls shoppers in Waitrose had obviously ignored the use of newspaper and gone mad on kitchen rolls. Suspect there will be a big increase in blocked wcs.


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## lazybloke (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> It’s a moving target. As the weather improves, people will get out more, reduce transmission opportunities, and it will stabilise.


Spain and Iran aren't exactly wintry. Even the UK winter has been v mild (down south- at least).

I suggest you're hoping for the best but fogetting the other bit: plan for the worst.

The difficulty is deciding what is the reasonable worst case scenario. But denial still isn't the best option. Better to over prepare than under prepare.


----------



## oldfatfool (14 Mar 2020)

Oh well yeah we are all going to die, wouldn't want to be last man standijg in anycase. Ttfn


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (14 Mar 2020)




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## steve292 (14 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Jesus please don't tell me they've stripped out the Hummus and Guacamole too!


Not an organic kumquat or a lychee to be seen in waitrose, and quinoa in short supply as well. Where will it end....


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (14 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The numbers in Lodi (and a few neighbouring provinces too) now are totally insane. This had 10 municipaliities within Lodi and 1 in veneto that were locked down* on 22nd of February. In theory with what some virologists are saying about infection and deaths being about a month apart on average, depending on your point of view this won't stop for another week, or maybe even longer. The 2nd lockdown also had neighbouring provinces effected badly (which was why they were doing that). Now some of the provinces in the south are reporting relatively large numbers of cases vs most other bits of the world.
> 
> *The lockdown in Lodi/2nd lockdown as well wasn't stuck to and everyone in Italy knows it sadly.



Gee I haven't been looking at the Italian numbers for a couple of days, until now having read your comment. It is absolutely tragic. 

What is hugely concerning, is their daily increase now (3500) is approaching the peak daily increase rate in China (4000), and China hit that rate when they reached 24,000 (on 4th Feb), which happens to be only a day away from the total in Italy today (21,000). So the condition in Italy is looking like a mirror image of China's, which could indicate that their ultimate total may not be less than that in China to date (80,000).

On top of that, the other thing that is extremely worrying, is while in Hubei they had 40,000 medical staff flown in from the rest of the country when the sh*te hit their fan, who is going to have the resource to help Italy (perhaps except China)? Perhaps that also partly explains the huge fatality rate in Italy.

And then to see there are people here who actually think this is all nothing/scaremongering, for UK, is tragic too.


----------



## Beebo (14 Mar 2020)

France are shutting all bars and restaurants as from 11pm tonight. 
My friend is in France, he’s coming home tomorrow as their holiday is ruined.


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## steve292 (14 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> If that is what they intend to eat during the crisis, I can totally see why they might need to stock up on toilet paper....


Well thats the thing isn't it? If you've bought 6 months worth of shithouse paper, but not the same amount of food, there's something seriously awry with your planning methodology.


----------



## Rezillo (14 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The numbers in Lodi (and a few neighbouring provinces too) now are totally insane. This had 10 municipaliities within Lodi and 1 in veneto that were locked down* on 22nd of February. In theory with what some virologists are saying about infection and deaths being about a month apart on average, depending on your point of view this won't stop for another week, or maybe even longer. The 2nd lockdown also had neighbouring provinces effected badly (which was why they were doing that). Now some of the provinces in the south are reporting relatively large numbers of cases vs most other bits of the world.
> 
> *The lockdown in Lodi/2nd lockdown as well wasn't stuck to and everyone in Italy knows it sadly.



I used to work in public health years ago as a (non-medic) specialist in notifiable disease control. I took part in and helped organise regional training exercises for hypothetical major outbreaks, most of which involved pandemic flu-type incidents compressed into a couple of days. It's really wierd watching a scenario, that I never really thought I would see in my lifetime, unfold in real time. One thing I didn't foresee was all the denial. In some ways, that's worse than the hysteria; it puts the elderly at risk if those who see themselves at low risk or in a situation of no threat to them don't practice good hygiene.


----------



## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Gee I haven't been looking at the Italian numbers for a couple of days, until now having read your comment. It is absolutely tragic.
> 
> What is hugely concerning, is their daily increase now (3500) is approaching the peak daily increase rate in China (4000), and China hit that rate when they reached 24,000 (on 4th Feb), which happens to be only a day away from the total in Italy today (21,000). So the condition in Italy is looking like a mirror image of China's, which could indicate that their ultimate total may not be less than that in China to date (80,000).
> 
> ...



The Italy figures have been looking like they could go worse than China even on a Hubei v Italy comparison for quite a while. That's just the national bit. If you adjust for Lombardy and provinces the picture is far, far bleaker, several appear much worse than China (although I don't know what went on deep within bits of Wuhan within Hubei). There's also a very nasty cluster when you ignore regional borders (although Emilia-Romagna's total on it's own is bad enough) between Mar/EMR. These two neighbouring provinces have over time spread to a neighbouring province. The type of terrains it's spread over and populations for provinces (which I mostly know) are also concerning. It is wildly out of control there with ambulances coming and going and people in intensive care (quite a few what certainly the Italians would call young). This is nothing compared to ground zero for the virus in Lodi where anywhere near there reports are becoming sparser and sparser (national/local news) and the BBC was reporting from Brescia instead which yeah...

One of the concerns apart from all that has been voiced on Italian tv. Some of the numbers for Piemonte (contain's Turin) and Liguria when adjusted for population are also are starting to look disturbing/something not quite right there.


----------



## Rezillo (14 Mar 2020)

steve292 said:


> Well thats the thing isn't it? If you've bought 6 months worth of shithouse paper, but not the same amount of food, there's something seriously awry with your planning methodology.



Well, I'm avoiding crowded air-conditioned supermarkets and can get all the food we need from farm gate sales and rural shops. However, there's a distinct lack of farm gate bog roll sellers.

Every supply crisis I've known - the 70s oil crisis, the three day week, the transport drivers strike etc. has resulted in panic buying of toilet roll and other staple items. Once it was sugar, for some reason. Anyway, an entirely predictable outcome, if rather a bizarre one. Nothing changes in 50 years. It also makes good tv because the product takes a lot of shelf space so it looks impressive when its gone.

I have to admit having a small stack ourselves post Brexit when trying to work out what basic items might end up stuck in a queue on the M20 if there was no deal. It was that and cat food.


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## Milzy (14 Mar 2020)

All public places close Wednesday 
All house confined from friday 
Until 1st june 
(All international travel till late July)

#nopanic

I have no source but it's a hunch I've got. We will see.


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## Mugshot (14 Mar 2020)

A Surge in Biking to Avoid Crowded Trains in N.Y.C.

_More New Yorkers are turning to cycling to minimize their coronavirus exposure. Citi Bike trips surged to more than half a million this month. _

NY Times link


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## nickyboy (14 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> All public places close Wednesday
> All house confined from friday
> Until 1st june
> (All international travel till late July)
> ...


I think you're right but a week previous

If and when it does happen, people who have been assiduously hand washing, social distancing etc can look at those who couldn't be arsed and point the finger at them and say "you did this"

HK has had the result it has because the population completely understands what is needed and they did it. For sure some governmental edicts helped, but what stopped it in its tracks was the will of the people

I've been saying for weeks and weeks that this is farking serious. All those that said "it's just flu", "it's overhyped"...thanks a farking lot


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## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I think you're right but a week previous
> 
> If and when it does happen, people who have been assiduously hand washing, social distancing etc can look at those who couldn't be arsed and point the finger at them and say "you did this"



Whilst by then we're hoping faster and cheaper test kits have come out, work on a vaccine has started properly and crossing fingers that remdesivir "works" on any kind of scale.


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## Rusty Nails (14 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Any truth in rumours he burns his baseball caps after every media appearance as his contribution to virus hygiene?



He has to wear US on his hat so that they can return him to his home because he has a tendency just to wander off if left alone.


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## Milzy (14 Mar 2020)

If factories are remaining open then why the frack are the employees not tested? I'd happily carry on working so long as the infected are sent away.


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## tom73 (14 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> All public places close Wednesday
> All house confined from friday
> Until 1st june
> (All international travel till late July)
> ...


I hope not we've a holiday in early June. It's the only one we have


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## nickyboy (14 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Whilst by then we're hoping faster and cheaper test kits have come out, work on a vaccine has started properly and crossing fingers that remdesivir "works" on any kind of scale.


Whilst trying not to appear rude, I think you're dreaming if you think this will happen

To bring this home, my friend in Alicante is really unhappy because, as from Monday, he is barred by law from riding his bike. Don't be surprised if we have similar in UK soon. Get as much riding in as you can. Very good chance there's will be no outdoor cycling in UK soon


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## Rusty Nails (14 Mar 2020)

I must admit to not having the knowledge to decide if the government's strategy for the virus is correct or not. I can Google it and get loads of different opinions, but that is not the same as having enough knowledge of the subject.

I hope that the government's approach does examine and take into account the possibility that there may be other/better methods. This BBC report shows there is some disagreement among scientists about the strategy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402


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## Julia9054 (14 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> All public places close Wednesday
> All house confined from friday
> Until 1st june
> (All international travel till late July)
> ...


What about schools?


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## Milzy (14 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> What about schools?


That comes under a public place.


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I must admit to not having the knowledge to decide if the government's strategy for the virus is correct or not. I can Google it and get loads of different opinions, but that is not the same as having enough knowledge of the subject.
> 
> I hope that the government's approach does examine and take into account the possibility that there may be other/better methods. This BBC report shows there is some disagreement among scientists about the strategy.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402



I have no idea what's correct either but I do know if you put 5 scientists into a room, they'll develop 7 theories.


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## kingrollo (14 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Whilst by then we're hoping faster and cheaper test kits have come out, work on a vaccine has started properly and crossing fingers that remdesivir "works" on any kind of scale.


Nail on head - we are hoping faster test kits come out....

I think Boris Johnson is hoping they start falling from the sky , along with ITU beds, Doctors and nurses !


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## Milzy (14 Mar 2020)

If Corbyn didn't have the media against him, he'd be in power now, all on lock down with more ICU's.


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## stowie (14 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I must admit to not having the knowledge to decide if the government's strategy for the virus is correct or not. I can Google it and get loads of different opinions, but that is not the same as having enough knowledge of the subject.
> 
> I hope that the government's approach does examine and take into account the possibility that there may be other/better methods. This BBC report shows there is some disagreement among scientists about the strategy.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402



I am certainly not in a position to understand the details of the strategies for virus management.

But, on the face of it (dare I say it..) the government's position makes certain sense. With no vaccine it seems logical that any measures will only delay the spread of the virus. But the actions range from almost none to total lock down. And the other side of the coin is disruption to lives and the economy. Which is an important factor, a big recession will harm people as well. Plus liberal democracies won't take to indeterminate lock-downs in the same way as possibly the Chinese system might. Lock down now and it is possible that when it is really required then people will have become complacent and unwilling to comply. 

It is a tight-rope. And governments will only get recognised when they get it wrong. And not recognised in a good way.


----------



## stowie (14 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> If Corbyn didn't have the media against him, he'd be in power now, all on lock down with more ICU's.



He would have only been in power for a few months. Not enough time to make a significant difference to ICU facilities.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

At this moment I am stumped as to detail. My local bar sells depot bread on a Thursday when the bakery is closed so I doubt they are a food shop. I'm curious to know how the plumbers are going to buy fittings for a particular job when the brico is closed. The job being something along the lines of your drinking water tap or your toilet.


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## marinyork (14 Mar 2020)

Virus management outside of containment is the three things every government on earth is hoping happens that I said - kits, vaccine, remdesivir. It's not my policy (for the hard of thinking or those that have drunk too much beer tonight). 

The stuff the last few days about ACE2 and patients on drugs around that is fascinating. Might explain why high death rates in certain groups. You could also possibly switch patients off ACE inhibitors. Sneaky virus. Sneaky science. Maybe even some time in future asking questions to patients if they are on ACE inhibitors.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (14 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> Plus liberal democracies won't take to indeterminate lock-downs in the same way as possibly the Chinese system might. Lock down now and it is possible that when it is really required then people will have become complacent and unwilling to comply.



I agree with this. I think we'll only get one shot at an effective quarantine period.

I also think we should be seeing a cross-party crisis committee working on this, help put an end to all the political point-scoring.


----------



## tom73 (14 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I think you're right but a week previous
> 
> If and when it does happen, people who have been assiduously hand washing, social distancing etc can look at those who couldn't be arsed and point the finger at them and say "you did this"
> 
> ...



Spot on 

For years as a kid some of my relatives use to go on about if we had a war now we'd have no chance. I use to think oh ok here we go again well now after seeing how many have carried on. I now think they got it right at a time we should have been coming together and doing basic simple things. They'd rather fight over toilet roll and tins of beans well next time they go about YP. Just remember it was not them who acted like kids filling trollies up with anything and ever thing even if they have no idea what 1/2 the stuff is. Thinking stuff everyone else who cares. 

Well some of us do and now many of us are going to have to deal with all this. For some like Mrs 73 that means going well beyond what's normal and who know at what risk in order to give them back a normal life.

So thanks a bunch for nothing.


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> We have made that decision, currently sitting tight in Valencia Province. So far, plenty of essential supplies (vino tinto), and, sunshine. No complaints.


Some handy phrases for you @BoldonLad if you get stopped by the police or army -

* Voy al supermercado - I’m going to the supermarket
* Voy al médico - I’m going to the doctor
* Voy al hospital - I’m going to the hospital
* Voy a la farmacia - I’m going to the pharmacy
* Voy al estanco - I’m going to the tobacconist
* Voy a la gasolinera - I’m going to the petrol station
*Voy al trabajo - I’m going to work

*Necesito comprar medicina - I have to buy medicine
*Necesito comprar comida - I have to buy food supplies
*Necesito echar gasolina - I have to get petrol

*Espero que el sudor de mi espalda no este oxidando tu canon Pedro - I hope the sweat from my back is not rusting your gun barrel sir


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## stowie (14 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I agree with this. I think we'll only get one shot at an effective quarantine period.
> 
> I also think we should be seeing a cross-party crisis committee working on this, help put an end to all the political point-scoring.



I expect cross party working is challenged at the moment, both with the restrictions in parliament and the fact that there are imminent leadership changes in Labour which means cross-party negotiation will be difficult until the leadership contest concludes.

Don't get me wrong. I think Johnson is a narcissistic cockwomble and the cabinet largely filled with shambolic half-wits. I am half expecting Chris Grayling to be announced in charge of a COVID-19 response team. Which is when I will start panic buying bog-rolls. But, from an uneducated standpoint, the strategy makes certain sense. It is risky, but then full lock-downs are also risky. There appears to be no good solutions for the moment.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (14 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> I expect cross party working is challenged at the moment, both with the restrictions in parliament and the fact that there are imminent leadership changes in Labour which means cross-party negotiation will be difficult until the leadership contest concludes.
> 
> Don't get me wrong. I think Johnson is a narcissistic cockwomble and the cabinet largely filled with shambolic half-wits. I am half expecting Chris Grayling to be announced in charge of a COVID-19 response team. Which is when I will start panic buying bog-rolls. But, from an uneducated standpoint, the strategy makes certain sense. It is risky, but then full lock-downs are also risky. There appears to be no good solutions for the moment.



Cross-party would perhaps have been easier if the Tories and Labour weren't dominated by f'wits


----------



## DCLane (14 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> But, from an uneducated standpoint, the strategy makes certain sense. It is risky, but then full lock-downs are also risky. There appears to be no good solutions for the moment.



This is the challenge. I'm hearing lock-downs* for 4 months, which I just can't see working. Not in the area where I live. One day would be difficult enough.

My concern, given I've a 15yo taking his GCSE's, is if they postpone GCSE's/A-levels/university exams. That would create chaos for those due to take them along with damaging their future prospects.

People will get ill, but much of this does appear to be an over-reaction in terms of panic buying and social media.

* And a lock-down means no bike outdoors.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Water?


Yes water. To chase down the beers and the all important >60% ABV whisky.


----------



## Soltydog (14 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> * And a lock-down means no bike outdoors.



It would appear that you are allowed to cycle to the shops/chemist, but not sure if it has to be the nearest shop, or any shop 🤔


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## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> Vehicle queues for local Costco was causing significant jams on the N. Circular today. Due to their membership requirements, I expect the majority of their customers are small businesses presumably stocking up after seeing much increased demand this week.
> 
> Still no toilet roll virtually anywhere. This is becoming plain stupid. What are people doing with all this bog roll? What are they expecting? That they intend to spend the entire two week isolation constantly on the toilet?


They will build fortresses from their industrial stocks of bog roll to defend against the zombie hoards.


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## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Very soon, Marshall law



I prefer the sound on the Fender.


----------



## MarkF (14 Mar 2020)

Son has a cough, uni have told him to self isolate for 7 days. He has one week left of his 8 week placement and uni say he may have to do it again. yeah right, squeeze in another 2 months just like that.

At the hospital I got given one face mask and told that was my lot....for 8 hours, good luck with that. Because I have to take it off so often as I leave one area and stuff it in my pocket till I return, they break. So I've been snaffling them from wards. Pile of virus blood samples taken today but the A&E is dept still eerily quite, Saturday night 10pm, busiest time of the week and where I'd look and normally see 100+ people, they were about 10-12.


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## Soltydog (14 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> the A&E is dept still eerily quite, Saturday night 10pm, busiest time of the week and where I'd look and normally see 100+ people, they were about 10-12.


Enjoy the relative peace & quiet, you guys deserve a break now & again  & you must be at high risk from this virus, because despite all news reports saying don't go to A&E I'm sure some folk will


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/51888491
> Good to see someone has their head screwed on.


I doubt I would wager money on that.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> I'd look and normally see 100+ people, they were about 10-12.


All getting bladdered at home instead of terrorising townsfolk and you and your colleagues.


----------



## MarkF (14 Mar 2020)

Soltydog said:


> Enjoy the relative peace & quiet, you guys deserve a break now & again  & you must be at high risk from this virus, because despite all news reports saying don't go to A&E I'm sure some folk will



I am resigned to getting it but am not concerned tbh, I am in robust health. Yes they will, some won't wait or ring 111, they'll just pitch up and demand attention right now, that'll happen soon but we have, along with security, "mechanisms" to deal with it, we'll see...



randynewmanscat said:


> All getting bladdered at home instead of terrorising townsfolk and you and your colleagues.



Left at 10, no drunks last night or tonight, a Fri & Sat night without anything kicking off, never thought I'd see that.


----------



## MarkF (14 Mar 2020)

Soltydog said:


> It would appear that you are allowed to cycle to the shops/chemist, but not sure if it has to be the nearest shop, or any shop 🤔


 I've got next Thu/Fri off so will cycle to the shops in Skipton, then Settle....


----------



## DCLane (14 Mar 2020)

Everything near me feels eerily quiet, and a bit tense.

I was out earlier and busy streets had turned into a handful of people.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Mar 2020)

Soltydog said:


> It would appear that you are allowed to cycle to the shops/chemist, but not sure if it has to be the nearest shop, or any shop 🤔


You have to book it like an MOT so that if you get stopped you can say "I am on important shopping business, for sustenance and refreshments" as the cans, bottles and pies bulge from the panniers.


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## randynewmanscat (15 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> Everything near me feels eerily quiet, and a bit tense.
> 
> I was out earlier and busy streets had turned into a handful of people.


Have a look at the webcams for Venice and some of Romes normally busiest places. I took a look on Saturday morning and for a moment thought I was looking at still images until pigeons flew by.
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/


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## johnnyb47 (15 Mar 2020)

I don't know whether it's just my imagination but i agree @DCLane. My local town felt really tense today. The people in the supermarket where generally relaxed but you could feel an underlying tension.
At the checkout everybody was standing a more noticeable distance from each other 
and were just busy getting what they needed and then leave, instead of the usual chit chat you often see amongst shoppers.
The main car park was also noticeably quieter.
I could imagine the pubs will be really quiet for the foreseeable future.
I'm certainly not going out for a pint anytime soon


----------



## randynewmanscat (15 Mar 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> I'm certainly not going out for a pint anytime soon


Pubs, cinema, its a long list and I see no reason to doubt your caution. I only realised on Saturday that my belote nights are out for now. My usual playing partners are older than me and two are a bit creaky with ticker and lung problems. Life is going to be trying for older people, boring if nothing else.


----------



## DCLane (15 Mar 2020)

The other concern I have is for the businesses who rely on sports / entertainment / travel - they're really going to struggle.

Events / holidays / work transport cancelled. Part of me thinks this 'herd immunity' is hoped to prevent millions out of work with an impact years hence. I _do_ understand the scientists' approach here, which is to help long-term, but it's a risk.

Oh, and the cynical part of me is wondering whether it's being used so weak/sick/old die to reduce the pension/social care budget. I _really_ hope not.


----------



## slowmotion (15 Mar 2020)

In London W14, there isn't even a hint of eeriness. The pubs and restaurants are as busy as ever. The diners in the French restaurant we went to tonight didn't look like zombies to me.


----------



## Blue Hills (15 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Whilst trying not to appear rude, I think you're dreaming if you think this will happen
> 
> To bring this home, my friend in Alicante is really unhappy because, as from Monday, he is barred by law from riding his bike. Don't be surprised if we have similar in UK soon. Get as much riding in as you can. Very good chance there's will be no outdoor cycling in UK soon


Same in italy apparently.
Don't you think this is over the top?
Folks allowed to go out for food, which clearly involves meeting people, handling stuff other folks then handle, but not ride a bike solo round streets and lanes?


----------



## Wobblers (15 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...n-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive
> 
> Hmmm



Hmmm indeed. Norovirus produces little or no resistance after infection, so re-infection is possible, but that's the only virus that I know of which does so. On the other hand, there are a number or viruses that hang around after infection; Epstein-Barr virus is one - it causes glandular fever and about 95% of us have it. But 95% of us aren't just about to come down with glandular fever! In short, you can test positive for a virus but not be in any danger of becoming ill. Given that it takes up to 28 days for full virus clearance from recovery, this is a plausible reason for these apparent instances of re-infection. The investigators WHO sent to China did not find any significant evidence of re-infection.

The test is not that sensitive. Furthermore, what is its false negative rate? No test is 100% accurate. A series of three tests where the first and third are positive, but the second yields a false negative result would produce exactly the observations of apparent re-infection observed. Given that China, Korea and Japan have conducted many hundreds of thousands of tests, 100 cases represents a false negative rate of less than 0.1%, which seems entirely plausible to me, especially given the circumstances that they've been carried out in - mistakes such as mislabeling are bound to have happened.


----------



## Fab Foodie (15 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> If factories are remaining open then why the frack are the employees not tested? I'd happily carry on working so long as the infected are sent away.


And how do you test?


----------



## Mo1959 (15 Mar 2020)

Trying to look for some positives to all this. I bet the air quality is improving quite dramatically if flights and a lot of other non essential travel is curtailed. 

I agree that it is starting to feel a bit tense and eerie. Lots of discussion on my local town Facebook page, ranging from those that say it's nothing to be overly concerned about to those that are obviously really quite frightened.


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> those that are obviously really quite frightened.



I saw my first example of genuine corona fear yesterday during a visit to my local bike shop.

The young mechanic has a serious health problem which I forget the name of but will probably kill him well before his time.

Some joshing along the lines of 'you are going to die anyway', but it seemed to me he was genuinely very worried about catching the virus due to working in the shop.

I've mentioned in the other thread the shop had a customer who bought a bike rather than go to the gym, but that was more taking precautions than outright fear of the virus.


----------



## Mo1959 (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I saw my first example of genuine corona fear yesterday during a visit to my local bike shop.
> 
> The young mechanic has a serious health problem which I forget the name of but will probably kill him well before his time.
> 
> ...


Maybe something like cystic fibrosis? It will be extremely worrying for anyone with conditions like that.


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## Rocky (15 Mar 2020)

This is a simulation of the spread of the virus under different containment strategies (you should be able to get behind the WP paywall as it allows a few free views)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

The thing I found interesting was the 'leakiness' of the Chinese style total isolation. It seems that some form of social isolation does work best.


----------



## BoldonLad (15 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Some handy phrases for you @BoldonLad if you get stopped by the police or army -
> 
> * Voy al supermercado - I’m going to the supermarket
> * Voy al médico - I’m going to the doctor
> ...


Out cycling this morning, no problem.


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## Dave7 (15 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Well, I'm avoiding crowded air-conditioned supermarkets and can get all the food we need from farm gate sales and rural shops. However, there's a distinct lack of farm gate bog roll sellers.
> 
> Every supply crisis I've known - the 70s oil crisis, the three day week, the transport drivers strike etc. has resulted in panic buying of toilet roll and other staple items. Once it was sugar, for some reason. Anyway, an entirely predictable outcome, if rather a bizarre one. Nothing changes in 50 years. It also makes good tv because the product takes a lot of shelf space so it looks impressive when its gone.
> 
> I have to admit having a small stack ourselves post Brexit when trying to work out what basic items might end up stuck in a queue on the M20 if there was no deal. It was that and cat food.


Me and MrsD were talking about that just yesterday. The sugar shortage Why? At the time we had 2 young kids and MrsD did lots of baking so that was her main problem.
I dont recall bog roll being a problem but as kids the Liverpool Echo was fine for us so it doesnt seem such a tragedy.


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## Joey Shabadoo (15 Mar 2020)

A somewhat hysterical and scaremongering piece from Robert Peston but this part rings true -



> According to a senior government source, the perception that ministers are reluctant to make difficult and costly decisions to battle the virus is wrong. It is simply that the chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance are waiting for the optimal time to force restrictions on our way of life that will be very painful.


https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14...ime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/


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## PeteXXX (15 Mar 2020)

My daughter has Crohn's and is not well with a normal cold bug at the moment. 
Due to her infusion treatment, she is immunosupressed so she is laying low as much as possible, but with 2 kid to sort out, she has to do stuff and go places. 
She phoned 111 a couple of days ago and an attempt was made to put her through to the full assessment people (from the basic 2 or 3 questions team.) It was, obviously, busy but she was promised a call back within 24 hours. She's still waiting for that call.


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## Buck (15 Mar 2020)

@PeteXXX my son has Crohn‘s as do I. He is on the biological infusions as well so I too am concerned about his wellbeing due to being immunocompromised. I’m not on biologicals at present although am recovering from a stoma reversal so not 100% just yet.

At the minute he is still going to college and I have impressed upon him the need to be a stickler for personal hygiene but being pragmatic may need to self isolate him (and potentially us) sooner rather than
later.

Edit: my current thinking is for him (?and your daughter) to follow any advice given for the elderly. The government may advise for the elderly and vulnerable separately but I feel that it is more likely they will offer the same for both groups as one.


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## Buck (15 Mar 2020)

Isolation for over 70s and vulnerable “weeks away”. For me that’s nearer 2 than say 6!

BBC breaking news : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873


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## oldfatfool (15 Mar 2020)

Meanwhile the airlines are bleating they will all go broke and will the tax man please pay their bills for a few months, fine so long as they pay it all back to the tax man when they are back making millions rather than operating from tax havens and paying CEO's millions


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> This is a simulation of the spread of the virus under different containment strategies (you should be able to get behind the WP paywall as it allows a few free views)
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
> 
> The thing I found interesting was the 'leakiness' of the Chinese style total isolation. It seems that some form of social isolation does work best.



I think such simulation results are highly depend on assumptions - how big the leak they assume would drive how the total isolation (oxymoron given leaky is not total isolation) option performs in relation to the other strategies - so in a way we have no idea, because we do not know how leaky it will be in practice - the author can pick which option he wants to win, to certain extent.

Nevertheless I do think the Chinese style total isolation only works in China, because only they have the system and people/organisation to implement it fully (without leakage), which is why it worked so well in Hubei - they only have 25 new cases yesterday - a figure we can only dream of, and they have a population of 1.4 billions. 

For Western countries, the approach like Hongkong's is probably best because it is best and doable, not because it is theoretically best.


----------



## Mugshot (15 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> Isolation for over 70s and vulnerable “weeks away”. For me that’s nearer 2 than say 6!
> 
> BBC breaking news : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873



View: https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1239114357604323329?s=20


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## Proto (15 Mar 2020)

With a huge number of businesses, both large and small, at risk, what is the likelihood of some kind of banking crisis?

Asking from a purely selfish point view. We are waiting to exchange contracts on a house purchase within a fortnight, and I have quite a lot of money sitting in a couple of banks. Could my house money be at risk?


----------



## PeteXXX (15 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> @PeteXXX my son has Crohn‘s as do I. He is on the biological infusions as well so I too am concerned about his wellbeing due to being immunocompromised. I’m not on biologicals at present although am recovering from a stoma reversal so not 100% just yet.
> 
> At the minute he is still going to college and I have impressed upon him the need to be a stickler for personal hygiene but being pragmatic may need to self isolate him (and potentially us) sooner rather than
> later.
> ...


It's a worry, isn't it! My daughter has her Pre-infusion blood test this week, ready for next Tuesdays appt. If she is still unwell they won't go ahead with her infusion. That'll leave her with, potentially, serious issues as I'm sure you know. 
She is, as I said, self isolating as much as possible, but not totally.


----------



## oldfatfool (15 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> With a huge number of businesses, both large and small, at risk, what is the likelihood of some kind of banking crisis?
> 
> Asking from a purely selfish point view. We are waiting to exchange contracts on a house purchase within a fortnight, and I have quite a lot of money sitting in a couple of banks. Could my house money be at risk?


No


----------



## flake99please (15 Mar 2020)

Full disclosure.... Costco employee.

The local warehouse has been struggling to keep up with demand for the last 2 weeks of toilet rolls, kitchen rolls, cleaning products, soaps, medicines, tins of soup/baked beans, flour, pasta, rice, and bottled water. Limits on the above items have been in place for most of that duration.

Numerous cashiers have been verbally abused when they have refused to sell above the ‘limit’ to the customers. The tills refuse to allow more than the maximum permissible to be bought. The cashier couldn’t override the system even if they wanted to allow ‘stockpiling’.

When toilet roll deliveries have occurred during store opening hours, we have had to guard pallets from the ‘mob’ customers entering restricted areas (goods in).

Customer numbers through the door (taken everything 15 minutes) during the last week have exceeded typical Christmas weekend numbers. It’s chaos at the moment.


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## Joey Shabadoo (15 Mar 2020)

Sitting in a hospital Starbucks and this guy obviously has flu. Coughing and spluttering, very red faced, no attempt to cover his mouth. There's about 12 other customers in here all keeping as far away from hom as possible.


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## postman (15 Mar 2020)

I have a dastardly plan,not to look 70.So i can go out.First i will buy some of those ripped jeans.then a holey jumper,one that looks like moths have eaten it.Jeans low low down so you can see my Primark underpants,A baseball cap backwards and finally a carrier bag over my head.I will walk the streets repeating innit innit over and over again,oh i forgot i must have a mobile phone i my hand so i can bump into people.Nobody will notice me ,problem solved.


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## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

What I would like to know is the prognosis for asthmatics - but for me my Asthma is well controlled - excercise brings it on - hence my 4 inhaler regime ! 
All the stats lump asthmatics with COPD or more serious respiratory problems.


----------



## Proto (15 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> No



i like the answer. Care to expand?

I’ve got the money in four accounts, (2 x Barclays and 2 x Marcus /Goldman Sachs) but all way ove the £85k protection for each account.


----------



## randynewmanscat (15 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Me and MrsD were talking about that just yesterday. The sugar shortage Why? At the time we had 2 young kids and MrsD did lots of baking so that was her main problem.
> I dont recall bog roll being a problem but as kids the Liverpool Echo was fine for us so it doesnt seem such a tragedy.


Look at this selfish git taking more than his share.


----------



## randynewmanscat (15 Mar 2020)

postman said:


> I have a dastardly plan,not to look 70.So i can go out.First i will buy some of those ripped jeans.then a holey jumper,one that looks like moths have eaten it.Jeans low low down so you can see my Primark underpants,A baseball cap backwards and finally a carrier bag over my head.I will walk the streets repeating innit innit over and over again,oh i forgot i must have a mobile phone i my hand so i can bump into people.Nobody will notice me ,problem solved.


Some pensioners dress just like that in Eccles, except for the reverse baseball cap, they wear it the correct way round. You need a Sports Direct carrier bag too.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (15 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> I am certainly not in a position to understand the details of the strategies for virus management.
> 
> But, on the face of it (dare I say it..) the government's position makes certain sense. With no vaccine it seems logical that any measures will only delay the spread of the virus. But the actions range from almost none to total lock down. And the other side of the coin is disruption to lives and the economy. Which is an important factor, a big recession will harm people as well. Plus liberal democracies won't take to indeterminate lock-downs in the same way as possibly the Chinese system might. Lock down now and it is possible that when it is really required then people will have become complacent and unwilling to comply.
> 
> It is a tight-rope. And governments will only get recognised when they get it wrong. And not recognised in a good way.



I know nothing about virus management either, but hopefully am equipped with a little bit of common sense, and some fact finding ability which may or may not always be 100% accurate. 

I think there are some factual issues with your post - but having read some of your posts, I suspect you won't mind me saying what I think they are, and I am saying it here only because such fallacies are the very basis of the decisions made by our Government, tragically:

"No vaccine" does not logically follow that "any measures will only delay the spread of the virus". There is still no vaccine for SARS (or the more recent MERS and EBOLA), but SARS was declared contained by the WHO in 2003, one year after it broke out. It infected 8000 people killing nearly 10% of them. It was "starved" out by isolation, like what China is doing with COVID-19 - do you know that China only found 25 new cases today, while Italy found 3500? I appreciate many do not believe Chinese statistics, with or without good reason, but if you look, you will see Korea is going the same way as China. If Italy had not been complacent, and had learnt the lessons from China, the Italian number would likely have been close to zero today, just like Hongkong's. So no, it is not true that measures will only delay the spread of the virus - measures can eliminate virus quickly leading to relatively very few if any ever getting infected, without a vaccine, and for a long time.

The above fallacy is the very basis of the Chief Medical Officer's and Chief Scientific Advisor's rationale for getting "herd immunity".

You say "a big recession will harm people as well." That is patently true, however the question I would like you to consider, is whether an economy would be less damaged if only 5000 were infected, or 50,000 (the very minimum I wager Italy will end up with), or perhaps 40 millions (the minimum to achieve "herd immunity" in UK as our Chief Scientific Adviser has been suggesting)? Why would the former be a less preferred outcome, by earlier intervention, when it causes fewer deaths, allows earlier relaxation of intervention, less disruption etc.? How can that be inferior economically? We are only two weeks behind the bloodbath that is Italy - is that preferable economically?

You wrote "liberal democracies won't take to indeterminate lock-downs in the same way as possibly the Chinese system might. Lock down now and it is possible that when it is really required then people will have become complacent and unwilling to comply." I don't know what sort of period you are talking about that you think is required for "lockdown", but even in Hubei, they unblocked Qianjiang, a city of 1 million, two days ago. All Apple stores are now open in China apparently. In Hongkong, there was never even a lockdown per se, simply most people who could work from home did so, schools closed, mass gatherings stopped etc. What I do know, is that people in Hongkong are very glad they are not in Italy, or Britain. What makes you think Brits would think differently when they look across the pond towards USA in a few weeks' time? I hear people in Italy are angry that their directives from the Government came so late!

Apart from the Government's dangerous intention to court "herd immunity", which is utter nonsense because it will only be achieved after over 60% of the population are infected, and therefore the death of millions of Brits, it seems to me the government has only provided sound bites of aims. Aims like delaying the number infected, flattening the curve so that hospitals are not swamped etc. These are what Americans call "motherhood and apple pie" - notions that no one with a brain will ever disagree with and criticise, but are actually meaningless in terms of information on their strategy.

Knowing the strategy is important, because what the government is doing, or more accurately not doing, is anything but flattening the curve - we can all see that without serious intervention the curve is growing exponentially. What can possibly be the benefit of that?

In my view nobody knows what the government's "position" is - if we knew we would have understood how on earth a delay in social distancing e.g., will delay the explosion of the number infected, when it obviously WILL lead to far more getting infected and die, taking the economy/society longer to recover. How can it possibly be beneficial socially and economically? Do you know?

If you don't know, why would you say "the government's position makes certain sense"?


----------



## oldfatfool (15 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> i like the answer. Care to expand?
> 
> I’ve got the money in four accounts, (2 x Barclays and 2 x Marcus /Goldman Sachs) but all way ove the £85k protection for each account.


If the government is willing to bail out airlines it won't and never as let a large bank go under. If worried you can easily transfer out to more banks to come under the 85k but tbh if all banks crash then fscs will also crash and your money would be worth f all in anycase, given it is world wide that means no money anywhere, so gold will be worthless as well, it really isnt worth worrying about. 

There will be a redistribution of money but given the massive enveloping scale of the madness you would have to presume that if company a colapses from this, then it will be a dominoo effect, so as as been seen by banks suspending mortgage payments you would expect companies to accept longer payment terms on mass to avoid every company experiencing cash flow problems.

Banks are pretty much at the top of the tree so if they go on mass, everything is gone and we start going back to swapping cows for beans.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (15 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> With a huge number of businesses, both large and small, at risk, what is the likelihood of some kind of banking crisis?
> 
> Asking from a purely selfish point view. We are waiting to exchange contracts on a house purchase within a fortnight, and I have quite a lot of money sitting in a couple of banks. Could my house money be at risk?


Unlikely, but if you are worried put them in separate banks. Each is backed by the government to the tune of £85k iirc.


----------



## Johnno260 (15 Mar 2020)

I ventured to the local superstore yesterday for stuff we needed, bread milk etc I have since dug out our breadmaker and recipe book so house will soon smell of fresh bread.
Anyway back on track, the wheeled a pallet of bog roll into the store with the plastic wrap still on it, what I witnessed next was tbh a little shocking, people literally tore the wrapping off and emptied the thing it was tragic.
I had a good laugh as did the guy next to me, and the horde got a little mad at that so words got exchanged.
It’s pathetic, if people kept their heads then all this stockpiling wouldn’t be an issue.


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## oldfatfool (15 Mar 2020)

It is possible that supermarkets will be in bother and left holding shoot loads of shoot roll after this, no bugger will need to buy any for years. Good job it hasnt a use by date.


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## randynewmanscat (15 Mar 2020)

My Mrs is due to fly to England on Thursday to visit a relative and sort matters domestic. I think it will be a close run thing as the French government ramps up the measures next week.
As with everything related to this virus the socio economic impact may be felt long after the worst has passed. Ryanair operate a service from Limoges to Manchester year round and a summer service from Poitier to Manchester. The alternative is a TGV from Tours that has an Air France flight number to Paris CDG and then a BA or Air France flight to Manchester.
Limoges airport is tiny, its a flying club that was expanded via private money and highly contentious EU grants, British people use it and the French go on holiday to London from there. Poitiers is not much larger and both airports would be scrubbed if Ryanair does not survive the strain. 
Airlines and routes take a long time to build and though the true owners of the fleets want them using to keep the money coming in they are not running charities.
If the restrictions increase and remain in force I think governments are going to have to borrow by giving tax holidays and emergency coding to individuals and companies.


----------



## marinyork (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What I would like to know is the prognosis for asthmatics - but for me my Asthma is well controlled - excercise brings it on - hence my 4 inhaler regime !
> All the stats lump asthmatics with COPD or more serious respiratory problems.



It is quite a diverse condition. One of the reasons is some asthma patients take some very heavy steroids (many types of tablets, infusions, injections (not used so much now) and types of inhalers), along with frequency and dose that pushes down and weakens the immune system. Others take different medications and lower doses of steroids. My father was believed to have chronic asthma until about a year and a half ago where another diagnosis of a similar condition was given. For six years under that diagnosis he had quite a lot of steroids in most forms (unfortunately with some very bad consequences). It's been noticeable the last couple of winters he's been in hospital less (but still a hell of a lot) and it's not been for pneuomonia, chest infections so much/at all. Which he had 2/3/4 times each autumn/winter. Or just a reoccurring mush. He's still a massively at risk group for flu as he ticks lots of boxes, but the steroid one really does make a bit of difference and for recovering/lingering etc.

If you are concerned I would recommend ringing an out of hours pharmacy, being incredibly polite and flattering go through your medication and asking flu risk. You could even frame it in terms of managing asthma. They may ask you to ring back when it's quiet e.g. 10pm. You may get unlucky and have a pharmacist a bit less interested/talky on flu. Or one who's a bit cranky or bad tempered (they are overworked). Because there isn't so much time often in GP surgeries many pharmacists and staff have heard/met a hell of a lot of people with asthma. The problem with talking to people about asthma is if there are other sides to it as there is yours, people often immediately say 'severe' to someone else (heard this three times this week) and conversation shuts down (it was meant to, that's why the person said it).


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (15 Mar 2020)

Folks I have read numerous articles on the subject, for no better reason than that I could. I just want to let you know that this one is exceptional, by far the best by a country mile.

It seems the traffic for the article is so heavy, that the direct link above can take a while for the whole document (especially all the graphics) to load, so I am including a separate link to my own pdf file (c 22MB) below in case you have difficulties with that:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/407x4eqq8zidtre/Coronavirus.pdf

If you have never come across it, I strongly recommend you take the trouble to read it. It explains pretty much everything that is important and relevant regarding the subject, with clear justification, and written in an easy to understand and concise way. It has been well received widely, and consequently has been translated by readers into numerous languages, as can be found within the first link above.

It happens to expose why our government's strategy is nothing less than disastrous, and why China, Korea, Italy did what they did, and why France and Spain decided to do so too yesterday.

Britain and our cousins across the pond are the odd ones out - we will pay very very dearly for it. 

I know you can and will decide whether the article makes sense - I want you to read it so that you can protect yourself and your family with the confidence that you are doing the right things, in spite of our so called government, and perhaps it can help you convince others to do what is best for them too.

Take care!


----------



## randynewmanscat (15 Mar 2020)

Piazza San Marco Venice, I Am Legend style. Its a live camera so you can see the locals taking a Sunday promenade and the tourists taking snaps, not this Sunday though.
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/veneto/venezia/piazza-san-marco.html


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## Milzy (15 Mar 2020)

*STOLEN FROM LINKEDIN*

7 million verified deaths per year from smoking....No Problem.

3 million verified deaths per year from alcohol.....No Problem.

250,000 verified deaths per year from medical errors in the United States alone......No Problem.

3500 verified deaths of sick people from a new virus .....SHUT THE ENTIRE WORLD DOWN!

More people die from snake bites and people still walk through long grass.
WORLDSGONEMAD.


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> that China only found 25 new cases today,



This is a startling fact - even if it's only somewhere near true.

I wonder if any control measures have much impact and the virus will just run it's course whatever we do.

The experience of China, and some other countries, may suggest the virus fizzles out after reaching its peak quicker than we are currently expecting.


----------



## Rocky (15 Mar 2020)

I’ve found two spare toilet rolls in a cupboard at home. I’m putting them on eBay and will use some of the proceeds to buy myself a brand new yellow JCB ventilator.


----------



## MarkF (15 Mar 2020)

Walked to my local Aldi for some cat litter, got there just before 10, car park full, car park blocked, 100's of irritated wannabee shoppers outside. Really rude people, mostly fat, one bloke intent on filling his 2 trolleys with the entire stock of wood burner and bollocks to anybody else, many were of the same mindset, they made me sick.

Walking back I passed my newly married neighbours house and remembered that they are both cabin crew.


----------



## nickyboy (15 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> If the government is willing to bail out airlines it won't and never as let a large bank go under. If worried you can easily transfer out to more banks to come under the 85k but tbh if all banks crash then fscs will also crash and your money would be worth f all in anycase, given it is world wide that means no money anywhere, so gold will be worthless as well, it really isnt worth worrying about.
> 
> There will be a redistribution of money but given the massive enveloping scale of the madness you would have to presume that if company a colapses from this, then it will be a dominoo effect, so as as been seen by banks suspending mortgage payments you would expect companies to accept longer payment terms on mass to avoid every company experiencing cash flow problems.
> 
> Banks are pretty much at the top of the tree so if they go on mass, everything is gone and we start going back to swapping cows for beans.


Wot he said, @oldfatfool is talking sense. Your money is safe

On subject of money I would be very careful about paying deposits or any form of "money up front" other than via credit card. A lot of businesses will really suffer and some will go pop. If that happens your deposits are, in all probability, gone


----------



## Levo-Lon (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’ve found two spare toilet rolls in a cupboard at home. I’m putting them on eBay and will use some of the proceeds to buy myself a brand new yellow JCB ventilator.



You'll only need one for that


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> It is quite a diverse condition. One of the reasons is some asthma patients take some very heavy steroids (many types of tablets, infusions, injections (not used so much now) and types of inhalers), along with frequency and dose that pushes down and weakens the immune system. Others take different medications and lower doses of steroids. My father was believed to have chronic asthma until about a year and a half ago where another diagnosis of a similar condition was given. For six years under that diagnosis he had quite a lot of steroids in most forms (unfortunately with some very bad consequences). It's been noticeable the last couple of winters he's been in hospital less (but still a hell of a lot) and it's not been for pneuomonia, chest infections so much/at all. Which he had 2/3/4 times each autumn/winter. Or just a reoccurring mush. He's still a massively at risk group for flu as he ticks lots of boxes, but the steroid one really does make a bit of difference and for recovering/lingering etc.
> 
> If you are concerned I would recommend ringing an out of hours pharmacy, being incredibly polite and flattering go through your medication and asking flu risk. You could even frame it in terms of managing asthma. They may ask you to ring back when it's quiet e.g. 10pm. You may get unlucky and have a pharmacist a bit less interested/talky on flu. Or one who's a bit cranky or bad tempered (they are overworked). Because there isn't so much time often in GP surgeries many pharmacists and staff have heard/met a hell of a lot of people with asthma. The problem with talking to people about asthma is if there are other sides to it as there is yours, people often immediately say 'severe' to someone else (heard this three times this week) and conversation shuts down (it was meant to, that's why the person said it).



When I'm off my bike with my bad back - Im sure I could get by with no inhalers.
I have the flu jab - and at the most get 1 minor cold a year - haven't had a day off sick in 7 years - I consider myself fit and healthy - but statistics put me in an at risk or the dreaded underlying conditions ....
Wash your hands and hope for the best !!!!

Thanks for responding !


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> This is a startling fact - even if it's only somewhere near true.
> 
> *I wonder if any control measures have much impact and the virus will just run it's course whatever we do.*
> 
> The experience of China, and some other countries, may suggest the virus fizzles out after reaching its peak quicker than we are currently expecting.



Good question - you wouldn't need to wonder if you read the article in here. Please do.


----------



## Levo-Lon (15 Mar 2020)

I just consumed 2 ibuprofen tablets...I feel guilty


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Good question - you wouldn't need to wonder if you read the article in here. Please do.



I appreciate you have gone to some time and trouble to find the article and create a link to it.

But 39 pages?

Way too long for me.

A genuine 'well done' for giving others who may have the stamina the opportunity to plough through it.


----------



## randynewmanscat (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’ve found two spare toilet rolls in a cupboard at home. I’m putting them on eBay and will use some of the proceeds to buy myself a brand new yellow JCB ventilator.


You can probably buy one on Ali for well cheap but two things to bear in mind. It may arrive after you die and if you are around to receive it then its probably the wrong voltage requirement and it will break within minutes of being plugged in even if it is the correct voltage. You will be having a keyboard exchange of google translate gibberish with the vendor as you gasp your last breath.


----------



## tom73 (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What I would like to know is the prognosis for asthmatics - but for me my Asthma is well controlled - excercise brings it on - hence my 4 inhaler regime !
> All the stats lump asthmatics with COPD or more serious respiratory problems.



Do you know who the lead Practice Nurse is for Asthma? Or has your practice got a pharmacist ? 
As @marinyork points out it's a condition with wide range of effects so what one person calls 'severe' may not be the same to another. 
Without knowing just what you mean and a bit of history it's hard to say what effect this virus may have on you. 
Mrs 73 is an experienced respiratory care Nurse so can ask her for a general reply to your question. 
See who you can speak to who knows more about your history you may have to wait around but as long as your nice about it I sure they will help you.


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## Stephenite (15 Mar 2020)

@RecordAceFromNew The link to the article has already been posted earlier in the thread but it does no harm to post it again because it is so good. I've told others about it and even posted it in my fb feed.

It's very well written. Clear and concise. Takes about 15 - 20min to read.


----------



## Glow worm (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I appreciate you have gone to some time and trouble to find the article and create a link to it.
> 
> But 39 pages?
> 
> ...



i read it in about 10 minutes and thoroughly recommend it. A very worthwhile read. 
our government‘s strategy on this is looking increasingly inept.


----------



## tom73 (15 Mar 2020)

Right I'm off to the shops only need the day to day stuff. It will either be like a walk in the park or an reenactment of the charge of the light brigade. ...."Wish me luck as you wave be good bye"


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## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Getting the feeling that if this were WW2 Boris Johnson would be saying

"People are advised to switch there lights out"


----------



## pawl (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’ve found two spare toilet rolls in a cupboard at home. I’m putting them on eBay and will use some of the proceeds to buy myself a brand new yellow JCB ventilator.



Don’t try wiping your arse with a JCB


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Getting the feeling that if this were WW2 Boris Johnson would be saying
> 
> "People are advised to switch there lights out"



Boris is no doubt working long days trying to do the best for his - and our - country in a difficult situation.

If you must rip the piss out of him for doing that, the very least you could do is take the time and trouble to understand the difference between 'there' and 'their'.

Here's a helpful link:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/how-to-use-theyre-there-their


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Boris is no doubt working long days trying to do the best for his - and our - country in a difficult situation.
> 
> If you must rip the piss out of him for doing that, the very least you could do is take the time and trouble to understand the difference between 'there' and 'their'.
> 
> ...



What's he done then ?

Us the USA seem to have a very hands off approach.


----------



## pawl (15 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Walked to my local Aldi for some cat litter, got there just before 10, car park full, car park blocked, 100's of irritated wannabee shoppers outside. Really rude people, mostly fat, one bloke intent on filling his 2 trolleys with the entire stock of wood burner and bollocks to anybody else, many were of the same mindset, they made me sick.
> 
> Walking back I passed my newly married neighbours house and remembered that they are both cabin crew.




we seem to have become less caring.I was born in1941 and remember rationing .My Dad and one of his mates both had allotments.Any surplus was given to neighbours. Mum bottled soft fruits.Excess vegetables were stored in clamps.

I lived in a street of thirty houses.Every body knew every body else in the street and we supported each other.How times have changed.

I am trying not to look at those times through Rose coloured spectacles.,there was always those who would try to profit from those times.


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What's he done then ?
> 
> Us the USA seem to have a very hands off approach.



He is being guided by our two lead doctors/scientists, who appear to me to have a good handle on the virus and how to handle it from a UK perspective.

Boris, for this purpose, is largely irrelevant.

I would back the strategy in just the same way if Corbyn was prime minister and it was he who was adopting it.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> He is being guided by our two lead doctors/scientists, who appear to me to have a good handle on the virus and how to handle it from a UK perspective.
> 
> Boris, for this purpose, is largely irrelevant.
> 
> I would back the strategy in just the same way if Corbyn was prime minister and it was he who was adopting it.



I don't know even know what the strategy is ??

It's like with the football - the decision was handed to the footballing authorities.

I know someone who is stranded in the canaries - the guidance quite robustly - is that you must stay indoors.

Here in the UK - half of us don't know if we should go to work tommorow. I work for a hospital and asked HR about home working - they didn't know.....

I saw a doctor being interviewed about bringing retired doctors into service and fast tracking junior doctors - he said he hadn't heard a thing....


----------



## nickyboy (15 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> i read it in about 10 minutes and thoroughly recommend it. A very worthwhile read.
> our government‘s strategy on this is looking increasingly inept.


In what way is UK strategy looking inept?

Every western country is adopting a herd immunity strategy in which a lot of people get infected and the immunity stops the spread. All that is differing is the methodology to achieve herd immunity

The present R0 is about 2.3 and this requires about 60% to become infected to stop it. This % is highly susceptible to the R0. Normal flu is 1.3 and that requires about 25% to stop it in its tracks. 

Every western country is trying to reduce the R0. 

FWIW I think that the current strategy is a good one. We will quarantine the elderly so they, in the main, don't get it. Everyone else MUST adopt measures to reduce the R0. The infection will pass through the younger and healthier. If we could get the R0 down to 1.3 then once about 25% are infected it will die out and all our at risk population is spared.


----------



## derrick (15 Mar 2020)

Ha ha.


----------



## Mugshot (15 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Right I'm off to the shops only need the day to day stuff. It will either be like a walk in the park or an reenactment of the charge of the light brigade. ...."Wish me luck as you wave be good bye"


Me too, just getting my stuff together


----------



## Glow worm (15 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> In what way is UK strategy looking inept?



I watched the PMs press conference last week, with the health and science advisors present and I thought the approach they were presenting to be very sensible and reasonable. The exponential growth of this thing though has me thinking that maybe we’re not doing nearly enough. the only thing that seems to combat this thing anything like effectively is complete lockdown- look at the China figures in that paper up thread.
I just heard the health secretary on the radio saying he felt that asking people to self isolate at this stage for 4 weeks would be too much, that they’d get bored, and I do agree it sounds like hell, but better bored than dead.


----------



## Rocky (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> He is being guided by our two lead doctors/scientists, who appear to me to have a good handle on the virus and how to handle it from a UK perspective.
> 
> Boris, for this purpose, is largely irrelevant.
> 
> I would back the strategy in just the same way if Corbyn was prime minister and it was he who was adopting it.


I’m no fan of Boris or Cummings, as you know, but I agree 100% with what you say. Boris is listening to the science. Cummings has apparently formed a good working relationship with Vallance. It is hard to see what else anyone could do. I sometimes think Boris trivialises things (squash the sombrero) but it’s a very good way of getting the message across.


----------



## MarkF (15 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> we seem to have become less caring.I was born in1941 and remember rationing .My Dad and one of his mates both had allotments.Any surplus was given to neighbours. Mum bottled soft fruits.Excess vegetables were stored in clamps.
> 
> I lived in a street of thirty houses.Every body knew every body else in the street and we supported each other.How times have changed.
> 
> I am trying not to look at those times through Rose coloured spectacles.,there was always those who would try to profit from those times.



The people are different now too, I am generalising but I had a good look this morning. Pasty, flabby people exiting flabby suv's and fighting over rubbish food that's only going to make them flabbier. I am in reet bad mood, can feel a rocky trolley trip to the wards for these folk later on today.


----------



## GetAGrip (15 Mar 2020)

I've been really strict with wiping everything down counter tops, handles, Keys etc. with antiseptics and bleach. Washing hands regularly and basically doing everything required to the point of being a bore to those around me. 
I noticed this morning the Simple liquid soap we use because of sensitive skin is actually soap free. My question is to any folk who may know, is it still going to be effective against the corona virus? I've been to their site but there is no information at all. Any advice on who to ask?


----------



## Milzy (15 Mar 2020)

I just hope we're sent home from work soon. It's going to be a very difficult choice of what to do in isolation. Road cycling, Gravel biking or unlock some Zwift challenges?


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m no fan of Boris



I am a fan, as you know, but leaving that aside I thought he appeared well briefed and on top of things.

Despite being a fan, I fully accept that to a degree he is a chancer and often seems to get away with 'winging it'.

Encouraging, at least for me, to see that he does have the capability to be a serious politician.


----------



## alicat (15 Mar 2020)

GetAGrip said:


> I noticed this morning the Simple liquid soap we use because of sensitive skin is actually soap free. My question is to any folk who may know, is it still going to be effective against the corona virus? I've been to their site but there is no information at all. Any advice on who to ask?



If your hands are clean and you're avoiding touching your face, you're doing the best that you can. IMHO they're saying use soap and water because they're readily available and cheaper than hand sanitiser.


----------



## Milzy (15 Mar 2020)

alicat said:


> If your hands are clean and you're avoiding touching your face, you're doing the best that you can. IMHO they're saying use soap and water because they're readily available and cheaper than hand sanitiser.


Mainly because the virus has a very weak thin membrane so soap is enough.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (15 Mar 2020)

@Proto 

This may be of use to you:

https://www.fscs.org.uk/how-we-work/temporary-high-balances/


----------



## AndyRM (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I am a fan, as you know, but leaving that aside I thought he appeared well briefed and on top of things.
> 
> Despite being a fan, I fully accept that to a degree he is a chancer and often seems to get away with 'winging it'.
> 
> Encouraging, at least for me, to see that he does have the capability to be a serious politician.



I for one welcome our new Corona Overlords and the unity they appear to have brought to CC.


----------



## The Central Scrutinizer (15 Mar 2020)

This is where i'm heading for but don't tell anybody.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (15 Mar 2020)

Cyclist in Spain stopped by the police -


----------



## oldfatfool (15 Mar 2020)

If I didn't have to return 'home' to give support to my 88 yr old mother then I would have stayed in the caravan in the deepest of Dale's in N. Yorks for a couple of months and told work I either would or would t have a job to go back to, their choice, unfortunately no doubt I would have been arrested for abandonment.


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

AndyRM said:


> I for one welcome our new Corona Overlords and the unity they appear to have brought to CC.



Spot on, being able to ventilate different opinions without falling out is the ideal, and ultimately it's more satisfying - and fun.


----------



## Dave7 (15 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> I just consumed 2 ibuprofen tablets...I feel guilty


So long as you didn't consume a bog roll at the same time I absolve you my child.


----------



## Dave7 (15 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Don’t try wiping your arse with a JCB


Why not.... Drago does.


----------



## fossyant (15 Mar 2020)

This crisis is likely to affect jobs of many of my family. Nephew is a chef at a top restaurant, SIL is a swimming Teacher, other SIL/BIL have own electrical shop, other nephew works for Old Trafford Cricket. 

My sis has friends that are both pilots. One was with flybe. They have a huge mortgage and recon can only afford another month.


----------



## stowie (15 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I think there are some factual issues with your post - but having read some of your posts, I suspect you won't mind me saying what I think they are, and I am saying it here only because such fallacies are the very basis of the decisions made by our Government, tragically:



No problem!



RecordAceFromNew said:


> o vaccine" does not logically follow that "any measures will only delay the spread of the virus". There is still no vaccine for SARS (or the more recent MERS and EBOLA), but SARS was declared contained by the WHO in 2003, one year after it broke out. It infected 8000 people killing nearly 10% of them. It was "starved" out by isolation, like what China is doing with COVID-19 - do you know that China only found 25 new cases today, while Italy found 3500? I appreciate many do not believe Chinese statistics, with or without good reason, but if you look, you will see Korea is going the same way as China. If Italy had not been complacent, and had learnt the lessons from China, the Italian number would likely have been close to zero today, just like Hongkong's. So no, it is not true that measures will only delay the spread of the virus - measures can eliminate virus quickly leading to relatively very few if any ever getting infected, without a vaccine, and for a long time.



I think SARS is slightly different. From what I read, although the mortality rate was much worse, the virus was only contagious once symptons were showing, and the symptons were generally so bad that the patient would be in hospital by that time. COVID-19 is more effective as a virus since it appears more transmissable (is that a word?) than SARS and the symptons can be light enough for people to continue with their activities thinking they have only a heavy cold. Ebola is way on the other end of the scale - not transmissable without physical contact and so deadly that it is actually counterproductive for the virus - patients just are critically ill and die too quickly for them to spread the virus.

But it is a series of unknowns.



RecordAceFromNew said:


> You say "a big recession will harm people as well." That is patently true, however the question I would like you to consider, is whether an economy would be less damaged if only 5000 were infected, or 50,000 (the very minimum I wager Italy will end up with), or perhaps 40 millions (the minimum to achieve "herd immunity" in UK as our Chief Scientific Adviser has been suggesting)? Why would the former be a less preferred outcome, by earlier intervention, when it causes fewer deaths, allows earlier relaxation of intervention, less disruption etc.? How can that be inferior economically? We are only two weeks behind the bloodbath that is Italy - is that preferable economically?



Again, a real unknown. It is also won't help too much to be economically sound if the rest of the world is going through a deep recession. We won't be immune from the events in other countries - especially Europe. My comment was more a reflection on tweets I have seen berating the government for considering the economic implications. Well, of course they are - and it only moral to do so as deep recessions hurt people - generally those who can least afford it. 



RecordAceFromNew said:


> ou wrote "liberal democracies won't take to indeterminate lock-downs in the same way as possibly the Chinese system might. Lock down now and it is possible that when it is really required then people will have become complacent and unwilling to comply." I don't know what sort of period you are talking about that you think is required for "lockdown", but even in Hubei, they unblocked Qianjiang, a city of 1 million, two days ago. All Apple stores are now open in China apparently. In Hongkong, there was never even a lockdown per se, simply most people who could work from home did so, schools closed, mass gatherings stopped etc. What I do know, is that people in Hongkong are very glad they are not in Italy, or Britain. What makes you think Brits would think differently when they look across the pond towards USA in a few weeks' time? I hear people in Italy are angry that their directives from the Government came so late!



Qioanjiang has been in lockdown since mid Jan, only just being released now. And the measures were tough. It is also not certain what will happen when these prvinces return back to normal - but China will no doubt lock them down again if COVID-19 cases increase. I don't wish to labour the point on "cultural differences" but it has to be considered - Chinese people are far more used to state intervention whilst we are not. My cousin lives in China and knows Chinese students in the UK are returning home because they are unhappy that our government isn't locking down everywhere. They appear to have an expectation of heavy state intervention which we simply aren't used to.

Us Brits do like to imagine we have a stoic attitude in the face of adversity with "The Blitz" being cited. And to some extent that might be true, but it is a cliche which hasn't needed to be tested for decades. The UK doesn't have major natural crises like other countries. On the other end of the cliche spectrum people were phoning 999 when KFC ran out of chicken, and are stockpiling bog roll now for reasons that seem rather elusive.

I think the government is hoping that a Hong Kong approach will work in the UK because I think we should have concerns over lockdown strategies.



RecordAceFromNew said:


> Knowing the strategy is important, because what the government is doing, or more accurately not doing, is anything but flattening the curve - we can all see that without serious intervention the curve is growing exponentially. What can possibly be the benefit of that?
> 
> In my view nobody knows what the government's "position" is - if we knew we would have understood how on earth a delay in social distancing e.g., will delay the explosion of the number infected, when it obviously WILL lead to far more getting infected and die, taking the economy/society longer to recover. How can it possibly be beneficial socially and economically? Do you know?
> 
> If you don't know, why would you say "the government's position makes certain sense"?



The government's communications suck. Today it appears that they are using the old technique of off the record briefings which are deeply inappropriate for this time. Matt Hancock apparently was talking about engineering companies such as Rolls Royce repurposing for medical equipment. This is laughable.

But when the government medical experts talk, I think their strategy makes logical sense. It may turn out to be the wrong approach, who knows at the moment? But I understand the logic to it. My understanding is that they aim to take measures to try to slow the spread with plans in place to lockdown quickly when the spread starts to accelerate. The leaking around the elderly and vulnerable being encouraged to isolate seems to make sense to me as well - try to keep those worst affected away from the virus whilst hoping that those healthy will help contain the spread with developed immunity.

It is a big risk. We are still not 100% sure that those who have had the virus actually exhibit effective immunity. But everything is a risk. Lock down entire regions and the risk is that the virus starts spreading quickly again as soon as the lockdown is lifted.

In all cases, I think this virus will be with us for at least another 12 months.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (15 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> *In what way is UK strategy looking inept?
> 
> Every western country is adopting a herd immunity strategy* in which a lot of people get infected and the immunity stops the spread. All that is differing is the methodology to achieve herd immunity
> 
> ...


Do you realise what 25% infected means? It would mean 25% x 60m x 3.4% or more will die, that is 510,000 souls. Fatality won't be 1%, because with 15m infected within a few months ICUs will be completely and utterly swamped. In fact with 25% infected, we will be lucky if fatality is not 5% for reasons explained in the article I recommended - have you read it?

3000 died in China. Today they only had 25 new cases. 100,000 got infected, which represents 0.17% of Hubei, or 0.007% of China. How on earth, as CMO or CSA, will you be able to stand up in front of the country/world with 510,000 dead under your leadership with your advice?

Have you been reading the news about France and Spain? Both countries implemented lockdown like Italy yesterday. Of course every country is trying to reduce R0, but they are NOT trying to get to herd immunity for the reason of fatalities above - China, Hongkong, Singapore and now South Korea are showing it does not take herd immunity to kill it. It just takes isolation, i.e. to ensure R0 is less than 1. That happened to SARS.


----------



## Dave7 (15 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> I just hope we're sent home from work soon. It's going to be a very difficult choice of what to do in isolation. Road cycling, Gravel biking or unlock some Zwift challenges?


Think yourself lucky.......us over 70s are facing lock down.
I do have a exercise bike though.


----------



## nickyboy (15 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> I watched the PMs press conference last week, with the health and science advisors present and I thought the approach they were presenting to be very sensible and reasonable. The exponential growth of this thing though has me thinking that maybe we’re not doing nearly enough. the only thing that seems to combat this thing anything like effectively is complete lockdown- look at the China figures in that paper up thread.
> I just heard the health secretary on the radio saying he felt that asking people to self isolate at this stage for 4 weeks would be too much, that they’d get bored, and I do agree it sounds like hell, but better bored than dead.


Two issues with the China comparison

1) No western country would be able, politically, to do what PRC did. None are, not even Italy
2) China remains extremely vulnerable to a second wave. 99% of their population has no immunity and there will be no vaccine until 2021.

To reiterate, every western country is taking the herd immunity strategy. The only difference really is how aggressive the steps are to bring the R0 number down

I expect pubs and restaurants in UK to be closed soon. This is a measure to reduce the R0. It doesn't "stop the virus". The reason HK managed to stop the virus was because the population knew what to do to get the R0 down to less than 1. We are learning. 

I think we all need to accept the fact that a lot of people are going to get infected (Germany estimates 60% of its population). The key is how to reduce the % (by getting the R0 down) and shielding the most vulnerable from infection whilst this happens


----------



## Buck (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't know even know what the strategy is ??
> 
> It's like with the football - the decision was handed to the footballing authorities.
> 
> ...



a general comment to all of this is why do we all need to know everything about the strategy? To an extent this is a PR exercise in that we need to keep people informed but this should be drip fed based on current assessments.
Too many people feel they need to know everything but to what aim?

Ref work, then until you are told differently then I would go in. I too work in the NHS and I am expecting that tomorrow my role may well be different in that I could be supporting the front line teams in their roles? Not sure what your job is in the hospital but it could be the same for you?


----------



## nickyboy (15 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Do you realise what 25% infected means? It would mean 25% x 60m x 3.4% or more will die, that is 510,000 souls. Fatality won't be 1%, because with 15m infected within a few months ICUs will be completely and utterly swamped. In fact with 25% infected, we will be lucky if fatality is not 5% for reasons explained in the article I recommended - have you read it?
> 
> 3000 died in China. Today they only had 25 new cases. 100,000 got infected, which represents 0.17% of Hubei, or 0.007% of China. How on earth, as CMO or CSA, will you be able to stand up in front of the country/world with 510,000 dead under your leadership with your advice?
> 
> Have you been reading the news about France and Spain? Both countries implemented lockdown like Italy yesterday. Of course every country is trying to reduce R0, but they are NOT trying to get to herd immunity for the reason of fatalities above - China, Hongkong, Singapore and now South Korea are showing it does not take herd immunity to kill it. It just takes isolation, i.e. to ensure R0 is less than 1. That happened to SARS.


France hasn't implemented lockdown. It's closed bars and restaurants, just as I expect UK will do soon. The only countries to adopt lockdown are Italy and Spain. Every other European country has broadly the same approach as UK

Maybe UK lockdown will come, who knows? We are certainly going to lock down the elderly who are the ones who would swamp ICU. 

It seems we are only disagreeing on the extent of a lockdown. Italy and Spain have gone for all people. UK will lockdown the elderly. Every other country hasn't announced anything


----------



## fossyant (15 Mar 2020)

Tesco Prestatyn looking fairly empty. Pet food decimated...


----------



## Dave Davenport (15 Mar 2020)

We've got a couple of garden and decorating projects that need doing so are planning on getting the materials needed within the next few days so we can get on with them if we end up with a full lock down. 
Just got some shopping in Lidl, it was busy but nobody seemed to be stockpiling stuff and the only things they didn't have were loo rolls and soap (although I did have to splash out on the expensive organic eggs).


----------



## Buck (15 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Tesco Prestatyn looking fairly empty. Pet food decimated...



that’s probably because they’ve sold out of pasta and baked beans


----------



## Buck (15 Mar 2020)

Austria have just banned gatherings of more than 5 people.


----------



## oldfatfool (15 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> This crisis is likely to affect jobs of many of my family. Nephew is a chef at a top restaurant, SIL is a swimming Teacher, other SIL/BIL have own electrical shop, other nephew works for Old Trafford Cricket.
> 
> My sis has friends that are both pilots. One was with flybe. They have a huge mortgage and recon can only afford another month.


We were told a couple of weeks ago that we will be expected to either bank hours, take holidays, or no pay, from anytime due to the lack of parts coming in from Italy and China. Both for us and our clients. They were talking about for up to 3 weeks but I suspect it could well become three months when you consider shipping delays etc once the countries do open up. Good old SAP management just in time manufacturing and the reduction of stock in the race for profit!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (15 Mar 2020)

Warning - language!


View: https://twitter.com/thejuicemedia/status/1238667841655541760


----------



## lazybloke (15 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> a general comment to all of this is why do we all need to know everything about the strategy?


Perhaps the most vulnerable (and those that care for them) are worried that too little action is being taken too late.
Aka perceived poor leadership.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (15 Mar 2020)

Germany closing it's borders apparently


----------



## Buck (15 Mar 2020)

lazybloke said:


> Perhaps the most vulnerable (and those that care for them) ...



I’m in this group. 



lazybloke said:


> worried that too little action is being taken too late.
> Aka perceived poor leadership.



I’m not in this group. I am trusting that the advisors and non-political government bodies are working hard and taking appropriate action.


----------



## MichaelW2 (15 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> that’s probably because they’ve sold out of pasta and baked beans


Aldi branch sold out of pasta and tinned tomatoes on Friday night. I popped over to a larger branch with the bike trailer at 8:00 Sat am. I was third in line with about 20 people behind me when the doors opened. I rebuilt my Brexit cupboard which was run down. Enough to get by for a while without going crazy and to feed my homestay student. Relying on our supply chain to keep going is optimistic. 

Also sold out was flour. Yay for GB Bake Off.


----------



## pawl (15 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> France hasn't implemented lockdown. It's closed bars and restaurants, just as I expect UK will do soon. The only countries to adopt lockdown are Italy and Spain. Every other European country has broadly the same approach as UK
> 
> Maybe UK lockdown will come, who knows? We are certainly going to lock down the elderly who are the ones who would swamp ICU.
> 
> It seems we are only disagreeing on the extent of a lockdown. Italy and Spain have gone for all people. UK will lockdown the elderly. Every other country hasn't announced anything



Yes us wrinkles are a real pain in the nether regions Just think of all the cash freed up when us oldens pop are clogs


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (15 Mar 2020)

WHO questions UK virus approach as scientists call for more transparency

Tom Hancock reports from London from the FT:

The World Health Organization has questioned the British government’s policy of allowing Covid-19 to infect a large proportion of the country’s population in order for “herd immunity” to emerge.

“This virus… hasn’t been in our population for long enough for us to know what it does in immunological terms,” WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

“We can talk theories, but at the moment we are really facing a situation where we have got to look at action,” she said when asked about the British policy. “We want all the things you need to do to be done together,” including large-scale testing for the virus and tracing contacts, she added.

Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, has said it was desirable for around 60 per cent of Britain’s population to be infected with Covid-19 so that “herd immunity” can emerge in the population to protect the country in the longer term.

The theory has been presented as the basis for the British government’s refusal to take steps such as closures of large scale events, schools, bars and other venues which have been rolled-out across Europe aimed at stemming infections.

The comments from Ms Harris as a group of leading scientists wrote to the Times newspaper demanding the government release scientific models and evidence for its policy.

“There is no clear indication that the UK's response is being informed by the experiences of other countries in containing the spread of Covid-19,” the letter, which was signed by six infectious disease experts including Richard Horton, editor of prestigious medical journal The Lancet, stated.

“Transparency is essential to retain the scientific community, healthcare community and the public's understanding, co-operation and trust,” the letter added.

An editorial in the FT on Friday called Britain’s counter-virus strategy a significant gamble. Read it here



F**k herd immunity, and the CMO and CSA if they don't show the rationale and implication! As I have said all along.


----------



## Dave7 (15 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> Austria have just banned gatherings of more than 5 people.


So a couple with 4 children


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> a general comment to all of this is why do we all need to know everything about the strategy? To an extent this is a PR exercise in that we need to keep people informed but this should be drip fed based on current assessments.
> Too many people feel they need to know everything but to what aim?
> 
> Ref work, then until you are told differently then I would go in. I too work in the NHS and I am expecting that tomorrow my role may well be different in that I could be supporting the front line teams in their roles? Not sure what your job is in the hospital but it could be the same for you?



With respect the comment I was responding to was he "happy with the BJ strategy"

I pretty much 90% think I will be in a classroom training doctors and nurses tommorow as normal.


----------



## randynewmanscat (15 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Me too, just getting my stuff together
> 
> View attachment 508497


When you get home the problems might start if your neighbours know you have provisions.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk7bUsc854I


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> I watched the PMs press conference last week, with the health and science advisors present and I thought the approach they were presenting to be very sensible and reasonable. The exponential growth of this thing though has me thinking that maybe we’re not doing nearly enough. the only thing that seems to combat this thing anything like effectively is complete lockdown- look at the China figures in that paper up thread.
> I just heard the health secretary on the radio saying he felt that asking people to self isolate at this stage for 4 weeks would be too much, that they’d get bored, and I do agree it sounds like hell, but better bored than dead.




Of course it's too much - unfortunately the govt is going to have make some tough calls - it's not going to please everyone / anyone .....

There aren't many good options - govt is keen to quote its advisors - but then ignore the guidance from WHO ....


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Cyclist in Spain stopped by the police -
> 
> View attachment 508501



Ah now it makes sense - we might need police patrolling the streets .....maybe even paying them overtime..........Herd Immunity it is then ;;;


----------



## randynewmanscat (15 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> This crisis is likely to affect jobs of many of my family. Nephew is a chef at a top restaurant, SIL is a swimming Teacher, other SIL/BIL have own electrical shop, other nephew works for Old Trafford Cricket.
> 
> My sis has friends that are both pilots. One was with flybe. They have a huge mortgage and recon can only afford another month.


There has to be some slack given or the banks won't even get 15p in the £ when people run out of road and cannot pay loans or mortgage. The government may have to lean on them and they also should be considering emergency tax codes and holidays on business rates. The UK is a stinking rich nation and the governments first job is to protect people, including protection from losing everything through no fault of their own. If this goes on for a while it is the poorest who will suffer the most, as usual. In a speech a few days ago the phrase was "billions if necessary".


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Surely if we spending billions on helping the over 70s - it seems reasonable to raise the state pension age and trim a few benefits. 

Not now but it will come ...


----------



## fossyant (15 Mar 2020)

35 dead in UK


----------



## geocycle (15 Mar 2020)

Just bought a turbo trainer. Desperate times...


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

geocycle said:


> Just bought a turbo trainer. Desperate times...


Did it come with any free loo rolls ?


----------



## Milzy (15 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Cyclist in Spain stopped by the police -
> 
> View attachment 508501


I'm going to wear black and no hi-viz so the poilce can't see me.


----------



## tom73 (15 Mar 2020)

Not said before but I have a sister not seen her for years. She kept falling out with my mum. Normal family crap not of our making anyway long story short. She got in touch many months ago on FB via Mrs 73. After thinking about I replied around Christmas. I've known for years she ended up in Spain. 

So thought I better see how it's going. She a good few years older than me and her partner is quite a bit older. For the moment she is well and holding out. She say's it's bad totally lock down with no time to prepare. I'm not overly worried she knows how to cope with stuff and how to manage. One thing we both get from Mum. But still it's a worrying time with more to come. 
She went on to say last night people came out onto balconies and clapped all the nurses. As she say you can't imagine that happening here.


----------



## randynewmanscat (15 Mar 2020)

A friend in England joked that I should be able to take my pick of used stainless steel catering benches and steam convection ovens later in the year. He knows I have been after such for my own kitchen, I'm not a caterer, I just like industrial catering equipment.
He is a regular visitor to my place and is very aware of how many of the countryside cafes, auberge and bars are hanging on by a thread from one year to the next. Not a facet of society is untouched by the oncoming isolation and its uncertain duration, I feel sad for the communities who rely on a local watering hole/gossip mill/place to drop things off for others to pick up/keep out of the wife's way for a few hours.
Anyone who has toured the quieter parts of France can recall a three course lunch stop with as much half right wine as you want for €13, if this event lasts into the summer it will be a hammer blow to those places.


----------



## Wobblers (15 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Folks I have read numerous articles on the subject, for no better reason than that I could. I just want to let you know that this one is exceptional, by far the best by a country mile.
> 
> It seems the traffic for the article is so heavy, that the direct link above can take a while for the whole document (especially all the graphics) to load, so I am including a separate link to my own pdf file (c 22MB) below in case you have difficulties with that:
> 
> ...



A shout out to @Mugshot who posted it earlier. But still very much worth the second mention!

It is by far the best analysis I've seen. Everyone here ought to take the ten minutes to read it. Ignorance, @Pale Rider is NOT a virtue. You could have at least troubled yourself to read the first paragraph which provides a summary.

The salient facts are that coronavirus is here, and the number of infections are doubling every 2 days. As of today, about 1 in 2000 people are infected in the UK. By early next week, this will be 1 in 100. In countries where the health system has been able to cope with the infection (e.g. HK) the mortality has been less than 1%. Where the number of cases has been overwhelmed, the mortality has been around 4% (Italy has an even worse mortality rate). The only effective measure found to reduce the infection rate is social distancing.

My thoughts, for what little they're worth, is that everyone who is in an at risk category needs to plan on self-isolation and minimise all contacts for at least the next 4-6 weeks, and act on it as soon as possible, certainly before next weekend.

To echo @RecordAceFromNew, take care and good luck!


----------



## Milzy (15 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> No problem!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I completely agree maybe even longer than 12 months so live, love, laugh.


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> Ignorance, @Pale Rider is NOT a virtue. You could have at least troubled yourself to read the first paragraph which provides a summary.



I did read the first few paragraphs of the article, and I'm certainly not seeking to portray my unwillingness to read all of it as a virtue.

The suggestion that anyone who has not read that particular article is ignorant is more nonsense.

As I said, giving members on here the opportunity to read it - if they wish to - has been a positive addition to thread.


----------



## derrick (15 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Me too, just getting my stuff together
> 
> View attachment 508497


Now i understand.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (15 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> But when the government medical experts talk, I think their strategy makes logical sense. It may turn out to be the wrong approach, who knows at the moment? But I understand the logic to it. My understanding is that they aim to take measures to try to slow the spread with plans in place to lockdown quickly when the spread starts to accelerate. The leaking around the elderly and vulnerable being encouraged to isolate seems to make sense to me as well - try to keep those worst affected away from the virus whilst hoping that those healthy will help contain the spread with developed immunity.



Thank you for the response @stowie. FWIW the critique of our government's "strategy" below by a Harvard Prof is better than what I could have written. Hope you like it:

*I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire*

Matt Hancock has apparently started to try to row back this nonsense. Good thing, but does it not make you wonder what kind of "experts" have we chosen to steer our ship in this storm?

If I were the CMO/CSA, having received this from over 400 scientists etc etc, I would have resigned in shame.


----------



## oldfatfool (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Surely if we spending billions on helping the over 70s - it seems reasonable to raise the state pension age and trim a few benefits.
> 
> Not now but it will come ...


Thought the idea was to cull the over 70s save a fortune and get rid of those pesky voters that stop government from scrapping benefits.


----------



## Rocky (15 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Thank you for the response @stowie. FWIW the critique of our government's "strategy" below by a Harvard Prof is better than what I could have written. Hope you like it:
> 
> *I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire*
> 
> ...


Although if you look at the list of people who have signed there’s a lot of mathematicians and PhD students (researchers in training). If I’d read a critique from a group of virologists or epidemiologists, I’d take more notice. So the CMO/CSA are probably not that worried.

Edit: it’s also worth knowing that Dr Hanage is not a full professor at Harvard. He’s the equivalent of a senior lecturer. So I suspect Professor Chris Whitty has a tad more experience in dealing with these things.


----------



## Proto (15 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> @Proto
> 
> This may be of use to you:
> 
> https://www.fscs.org.uk/how-we-work/temporary-high-balances/



thanks for that but we sold our house in mid may last year and I’d be in breach of the 6 month time limit.
Starting to have sleepless nights 🙈


----------



## BoldonLad (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't know even know what the strategy is ??
> 
> It's like with the football - the decision was handed to the footballing authorities.
> 
> ...


And, all of that proves what?


----------



## Rusty Nails (15 Mar 2020)

Perhaps people are getting a bit nicer.

Some new neighbours (a lot younger than most of the residents in our street) moved in around 18 months ago. I thought they were a little bit stand-offish as they hardly acknowledge us when out despite our smiles or waves.

Today they came and put a note in the letter boxes of all us old-timers offering to run any errands and assist if we have problems until this is sorted or if some lock-down or isolation happens.

Restored my faith a bit, although I am a bit upset that they can see how old I am, when I think I look half my age.


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Although if you look at the list of people who have signed there’s a lot of mathematicians and PhD students (researchers in training). If I’d read a critique from a group of virologists or epidemiologists, I’d take more notice. So the CMO/CSA are probably not that worried.
> 
> Edit: it’s also worth knowing that Dr Hanange is not a full professor at Harvard. He’s the equivalent of a senior lecturer. So I suspect Professor Chris Whitty has a tad more experience in dealing with these things.



Another point is these joint open letters are only ever written to criticise.

In other words, a notional group of 400 people from various backgrounds who broadly support the government would be unlikely to write a joint letter saying so.


----------



## BoldonLad (15 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Think yourself lucky.......us over 70s are facing lock down.
> I do have a exercise bike though.


I am going to lie about my age


----------



## tom73 (15 Mar 2020)

@Brompton Bruce very true they will have much worse flying round them on SM. 
What I find odd is pepole can't believe that as a county we can't possibley have any highly trained and experienced professionals. 
It's not like we give away high class quotations and experience free with the cornflakes.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> And, all of that proves what?


That despite all the bluster - guidance from central government is very weak ?


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Another point is these joint open letters are only ever written to criticise.
> 
> In other words, a notional group of 400 people from various backgrounds who broadly support the government would be unlikely to write a joint letter saying so.



So would WHO at this stage.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Although if you look at the list of people who have signed there’s a lot of mathematicians and PhD students (researchers in training). If I’d read a critique from a group of virologists or epidemiologists, I’d take more notice. So the CMO/CSA are probably not that worried.
> 
> Edit: it’s also worth knowing that Dr Hanage is not a full professor at Harvard. He’s the equivalent of a senior lecturer. So I suspect Professor Chris Whitty has a tad more experience in dealing with these things.



Those guys at WHO seem to have a fair bit of experience though.


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Brompton Bruce
> What I find odd is pepole can't believe that as a county we can't possibley have any highly trained and experienced professionals.



I agree - my brother was ridiculing the plan to get other manufacturers to make ventilators.

He gave lots of reasons why it's a non-starter.

It might be crap, but he would not accept those who suggested the plan might have enough expertise to make an accurate initial assessment of the viability of it before suggesting it.


----------



## Rocky (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Those guys at WHO seem to have a fair bit of experience though.


Which guys? What have they said?


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Which guys? What have they said?



They disagree with the UK on the herd immunity theory.


----------



## Dave7 (15 Mar 2020)

Now its really getting serious.
Just reading that Jehovahs Witnesses have cancelled all door to door witnessing, all public meetings and all those public literature carts you see.


----------



## Rocky (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> They disagree with the UK on the herd immunity theory.


Do you have a link? I’d like to read it.

As I understand it, if the country doesn’t develop a herd immunity, when the virus evolves into something worse in the winter (as is predicted) then there’ll be real trouble.


----------



## Rusty Nails (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Of course it's too much - unfortunately the govt is going to have make some tough calls - it's not going to please everyone / anyone .....
> 
> There aren't many good options - govt is keen to quote its advisors - but then ignore the guidance from WHO ....



I understand the point, but are our advisors ignoring the guidance from the WHO, or listening to it but having a different professional and scientific opinion on the effectiveness of that approach? If you listen to advice but disagree you are not ignoring it.

Someone said earlier in the thread something along the lines that if you put seven scientists in a room you would get five different opinions. In this thread we seem to have way above seven expert scientists, none of whom give me any confidence that they know more than our government's advisers.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Do you have a link? I’d like to read it.
> 
> As I understand it, if the country doesn’t develop a herd immunity, when the virus evolves into something worse in the winter (as is predicted) then there’ll be real trouble.


Cant link on my phone. Think it's on the BBC - or Google will quickly throw it up


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Although if you look at the list of people who have signed there’s a lot of mathematicians and PhD students (researchers in training). If I’d read a critique from a group of virologists or epidemiologists, I’d take more notice. So the CMO/CSA are probably not that worried.
> 
> Edit: it’s also worth knowing that Dr Hanage is not a full professor at Harvard. He’s the equivalent of a senior lecturer. So I suspect Professor Chris Whitty has a tad more experience in dealing with these things.



How about from a full UCL Prof representing the British Society of Immunology?

*BSI open letter to Government on SARS-CoV-2 outbreak response*

or from WHO's spokeperson?

*UK's strategy for tackling coronavirus questioned by World Health Organisation*

or from a group of 6 led by the editor of Lancet?


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I understand the point, but are our advisors ignoring the guidance from the WHO, or listening to it but having a different professional and scientific opinion on the effectiveness of that approach? If you listen to advice but disagree you are not ignoring it.
> 
> Someone said earlier in the thread something along the lines that if you put seven scientists in a room you would get five different opinions. In this thread we seem to have way above seven expert scientists, none of whom give me any confidence that they know more than our government's advisers.


That's all true of course.
But we seem to have a different approach to most European countries - and WHO disagree with the UK approach.

W


----------



## oldfatfool (15 Mar 2020)

The Trumpster is making a statement at 5pm est, so pensions will either rise or sink beneath the waves


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

I thought there is broad agreement over the concept of herd immunity.

Our experts and government are saying herd immunity is not policy, but it would be a benefit of lots of people catching the virus which is likely to happen whether we want it to or not.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (15 Mar 2020)

*



Against Covid-19, the Minister of Health recommends not to take ibuprofen

Click to expand...

*


> Ibuprofen belongs to the family of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), drugs that can worsen existing infections.



From Le Monde - https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/arti...I36_dmzFIwx499iDLdrIkWngbo_Bsiqj5U8VLVUwgbEeM



> Ibuprofen, sold under this name and various trade names (such as Advil and Nurofen), is part of the family of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), drugs that can worsen existing infections, with large possible complications. Several doctors have thus mentioned cases of young patients with Covid-19 and without comorbidities who find themselves in a serious state after taking ibuprofen for their fever.
> 
> For this reason, NSAIDs are no longer sold self-service in French pharmacies since January 15




Useful information I hope


----------



## Rocky (15 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> How about from a full UCL Prof representing the British Society of Immunology?
> 
> *BSI open letter to Government on SARS-CoV-2 outbreak response*
> 
> ...


Interesting but they seem to be looking very short term. What happens when the virus returns in the winter?

What is also interesting is seeing the normal scientific process played out in public. This debate is what happens normally through the peer review process. As scientists they are used to asking questions and critiquing the science however they do not have the wider picture to consider (I) public morale (ii) damage to the economy (iii) law and order. Boris, Whitty and Vallance have to consider all of these.


----------



## Milzy (15 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> a general comment to all of this is why do we all need to know everything about the strategy? To an extent this is a PR exercise in that we need to keep people informed but this should be drip fed based on current assessments.
> Too many people feel they need to know everything but to what aim?
> 
> Ref work, then until you are told differently then I would go in. I too work in the NHS and I am expecting that tomorrow my role may well be different in that I could be supporting the front line teams in their roles? Not sure what your job is in the hospital but it could be the same for you?


This is true, my wife will probably have no home visits or clinics to attend. This will mean nothing to type up in the office. Probably going to be on a phone giving out advice instead.


----------



## BoldonLad (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> That despite all the bluster - guidance from central government is very weak ?


An alternative view is that lots if people who have nothing of substance to say, are grabbing their 30 seconds in the limelight to spout nothing, dressed up as expertise.


----------



## BoldonLad (15 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Now its really getting serious.
> Just reading that Jehovahs Witnesses have cancelled all door to door witnessing, all public meetings and all those public literature carts you see.


Maybe they have all the seats “up there” filled now?


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Interesting but they seem to be looking very short term. What happens when the virus returns in the winter?
> 
> What is also interesting is seeing the normal scientific process played out in public. This debate is what happens normally through the peer review process. As scientists they are used to asking questions and critiquing the science however they do not have the wider picture to consider (I) public morale (ii) damage to the economy (iii) law and order. Boris, Whitty and Vallance have to consider all of these.


Hopefully - if we could delay it - we would have more ITU beds - and some of the experimental drugs being used would be further developed.

Also we don't know how long any immunity lasts - so those who get infected now - may not have immunity come December.


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Interesting but they seem to be looking very short term. What happens when the virus returns in the winter?
> 
> What is also interesting is seeing the normal scientific process played out in public. This debate is what happens normally through the peer review process. As scientists they are used to asking questions and critiquing the science however they do not have the wider picture to consider (I) public morale (ii) damage to the economy (iii) law and order. Boris, Whitty and Vallance have to consider all of these.



One of the things that impressed me about the trio's performance is they had considered the wider non-medical implications.

It would be easy to get wrapped up in the medical science and fail to acknowledge the other factors at play in fighting the virus.


----------



## BoldonLad (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> One of the things that impressed me about the trio's performance is they had considered the wider non-medical implications.
> 
> It would be easy to get wrapped up in the medical science and fail to acknowledge the other factors at play in fighting the virus.


Quite. IMHO the fall out from this situation is likely to go far beyond the medical considerations.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> One of the things that impressed me about the trio's performance is they had considered the wider non-medical implications.
> 
> It would be easy to get wrapped up in the medical science and fail to acknowledge the other factors at play in fighting the virus.


Yeah I'm sure JRM has considered the effect on his hedge fund


----------



## BoldonLad (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yeah I'm sure JRM has considered the effect on his hedge fund


Maybe all of you, who do not have a public sector pension, should be doing likewise?


----------



## Rocky (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Hopefully - if we could delay it - we would have more ITU beds - and some of the experimental drugs being used would be further developed.
> 
> Also we don't know how long any immunity lasts - so those who get infected now - may not have immunity come December.


That’s true about the immunity. There have been several cases where it appears a person has been reinfected after having been given the all clear.

What it shows me is that there is no right answer or solution to this. The UK might be right and Italy wrong or vice versa or we might both be wrong or we could both be right. Scientific life is about uncertainty.


----------



## BoldonLad (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> That’s true about the immunity. There has been several cases where it appears a person has been reinfected after having been given the all clear.
> 
> What it shows me is that there is no right answer or solution to this. The UK might be right and Italy wrong or vice versa or we might both be wrong or we could both be right. Scientific life is about uncertainty.


To summarise: nobody knows


----------



## Rusty Nails (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> That's all true of course.
> But we seem to have a different approach to most European countries - and WHO disagree with the UK approach.



And none of them _know_ yet how effective their approach will be either. Is there a standard approach in European countries, or is it just that there are differences in timing? This is new territory and there is no tried and tested plan to work to so every country is adopting their own.

China, politically and socially is different to European countries. Hong Kong is a small, heavily populated state that also does not compare with much in Europe, or the rest of the world.

I admit to not knowing enough to argue with anyone about which is the best approach in the long run. I also admit to having some misgivings about our timing strategy re restrictions, and the testing policy, which does not let us know how many are affected, while hopefully understanding what our scientists think will happen as a result of it.


----------



## Rocky (15 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> To summarise: nobody knows


I think that’s a fair summary


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Hopefully - if we could delay it - we would have more ITU beds - and some of the experimental drugs being used would be further developed.
> 
> Also we don't know how long any immunity lasts - so those who get infected now - may not have immunity come December.



Isn't that government policy?

Flatten - and consequentially lengthen - the virus period in the hope of making best use of resources.


----------



## randynewmanscat (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’ve found two spare toilet rolls in a cupboard at home. I’m putting them on eBay and will use some of the proceeds to buy myself a brand new yellow JCB ventilator.


I want the Rolls Royce one with choice of different exotic hardwoods for the control panel fascia.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (15 Mar 2020)

View: https://youtu.be/nl6tTwxzCi8


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Isn't that government policy?
> 
> Flatten - and consequentially lengthen - the virus period in the hope of making best use of resources.



Maybe but what are they doing to slow it down ?


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yeah I'm sure JRM has considered the effect on his hedge fund



I'm disappointed you seem determined to use the virus response as a stick with which to beat the government.

Plenty of opportunity to do that in relation to other policies.

But to address your latest point, why wouldn't Rees Mogg consider the impact on his hedge fund?

Lots of people in this thread, and probably nearly everyone else, have considered the impact on their wealth.

It's the responsible thing to do.

The only difference with Rees Mogg is his wealth is greater than most of the rest of us.



kingrollo said:


> Maybe but what are they doing to slow it down ?



Surely that's the aim of the advice to socially isolate, wash hands, not to personally visit health establishments unless you have to, and so on.

I agree they are currently speaking softly, but that's because they are reluctant to wield the big stick, not least because the populace might refuse to respond to it.


----------



## All uphill (15 Mar 2020)

My son in the Netherlands reports an immediate shut down of cafes, bars, schools etc with immediate effect to 6th April.

Work from home unless essential worker.


----------



## nickyboy (15 Mar 2020)

I'm doing LEJOG in May

So I've got to avoid getting CV, got to hope my accomodation doesn't get CV, got to hope the pubs and restaurants are still open and got to hope we aren't locked down and I'm not allowed to cycle


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

As a slight diversion from the virus, I see the BBC has spoken to three couples who are having to alter their wedding plans.

What struck me from the article is one couple were planning on spending £100,000 on their wedding.

I knew weddings aren't cheap, but that is a vast amount of money - I'm obviously well out of touch.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51896636


----------



## Mike_P (15 Mar 2020)

Cannot see how what has happened in Italy can be taken as an indicator for events here given the differences in family social structures, not many elderly relatives here have relations visiting 24/7.


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Cannot see how what has happened in Italy can be taken as an indicator for events here given the differences in family social structures, not many elderly relatives here have relations visiting 24/7.



I agree, and the way they tend to interact with people outside the family is different.

The Italians, and the Spanish, are more tactile and more inclined to embrace people they meet.

Vive le difference, but very bad for virus transmission.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Cannot see how what has happened in Italy can be taken as an indicator for events here given the differences in family social structures, not many elderly relatives here have relations visiting 24/7.


Have a look at Germany then.


----------



## mjr (15 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Sitting in a hospital Starbucks and this guy obviously has flu. Coughing and spluttering, very red faced, no attempt to cover his mouth. There's about 12 other customers in here all keeping as far away from hom as possible.


It's a ruddy hospital. He could have any one of dozens of other illnesses and you're playing doctor from the other side of the room. Not cool.


----------



## tom73 (15 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Now its really getting serious.
> Just reading that Jehovahs Witnesses have cancelled all door to door witnessing, all public meetings and all those public literature carts you see.


They maybe a god after all


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I agree, and the way they tend to interact with people outside the family is different.
> 
> The Italians, and the Spanish, are more tactile and more inclined to embrace people they meet.
> 
> Vive le difference, but very bad for virus transmission.


Did I dream you knocking someone today for confusing there with their? I'd steer well clear of French, if I were you. La différence!


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Did I dream you knocking someone today for confusing there with their? I'd steer well clear of French, if I were you. La différence!



Curses, should have known that or checked it.

Happy to take your advice.

Steering well clear of French, and steering well clear of the French, will not be a hardship for me.


----------



## Blue Hills (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> As a slight diversion from the virus, I see the BBC has spoken to three couples who are having to alter their wedding plans.
> 
> What struck me from the article is one couple were planning on spending £100,000 on their wedding.
> 
> ...


at the risk of a thread drift, tho you started it  that's bonkers.
I do hope there isn't/wasn't a string quartet booked.
I firmly believe there is a string quartet curse - have one at the wedding and your marriage is doomed/on borrowed time.
Maybe they've had a close shave
can sort their underlying relationship
and then when this all blows over book an oompah band for a do above a pub.


----------



## mjr (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> As I understand it, if the country doesn’t develop a herd immunity, when the virus evolves into something worse in the winter (as is predicted) then there’ll be real trouble.


It could evolve into something less expensive like the 1918 flu did IIRC. Those who've studied the genetics will have opinions on which is more likely. I'm not one.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> As a slight diversion from the virus, I see the BBC has spoken to three couples who are having to alter their wedding plans.
> 
> What struck me from the article is one couple were planning on spending £100,000 on their wedding.
> 
> ...



An Indian couple that I know attended the wedding of his sister last year that was paid for by the grandfather of the bride - 1000 guests over three days at a mind-numbing £250k.


----------



## Rocky (15 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> It could evolve into something less expensive like the 1918 flu did IIRC. Those who've studied the genetics will have opinions on which is more likely. I'm not one.


You may be right. I did a module on genetics for my degree but that was back in 1975 and I can’t remember a bean about it


----------



## tom73 (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> As a slight diversion from the virus, I see the BBC has spoken to three couples who are having to alter their wedding plans.
> 
> What struck me from the article is one couple were planning on spending £100,000 on their wedding.
> 
> ...



Think they've missed a trick if only they'd update the gift list and got everyone to bring bog roll then stuck the whole lot on eBay. They'd have been quids in.


----------



## Milzy (15 Mar 2020)

Brother in Canada says they've closed down all the bars. He's fuming and he says he's not happy with their Martial law.


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> at the risk of a thread drift, tho you started it  that's bonkers.
> I do hope there isn't/wasn't a string quartet booked.
> I firmly believe there is a string quartet curse - have one at the wedding and your marriage is doomed/on borrowed time.
> Maybe they've had a close shave
> ...



As it's an Asian wedding, I doubt a string quartet - or an oompah band - is quite their thing.


----------



## Proto (15 Mar 2020)

My daughter tells me some universities are closing this coming week, Bristol being one of them.

Most of her lectures get put online so it’ll be work from home for her students.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> Brother in Canada says they've closed down all the bars. He's fuming and he says he's not happy with their Martial law.


My brother in Canada just messaged me to ask how the social distancing versus social drinking debate was going, at which point I decided it could be the last chance for a drink out for quite a while....


----------



## DaveReading (15 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Although if you look at the list of people who have signed there’s a lot of mathematicians and PhD students (researchers in training). If I’d read a critique from a group of virologists or epidemiologists, I’d take more notice. So the CMO/CSA are probably not that worried.
> 
> Edit: it’s also worth knowing that Dr Hanage is not a full professor at Harvard. He’s the equivalent of a senior lecturer. So I suspect Professor Chris Whitty has a tad more experience in dealing with these things.



I sincerely hope that the link to the letter is a copy, and that the original didn't include as one of its references that paper from the bloke who has absolutely no medical or epidemiological qualifications whatsoever.


----------



## Julia9054 (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> As it's an Asian wedding, I doubt a string quartet - or an oompah band - is quite their thing.


My son's jazz function band play at quite a few Asian weddings in the Manchester area. Last year, some guests were so impressed that they flew all 6 of them out to New Delhi to play at a function out there. Can't imagine how much that cost


----------



## DCLane (15 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> My daughter tells me some universities are closing this coming week, Bristol being one of them.
> 
> Most of her lectures get put online so it’ll be work from home for her students.



Mine's staying open for the moment. I do wonder if they're trying to hold out until Easter when most have finished apart from assignments / exams. I've got 100+ students sitting an exam in May: we're currently looking how that can be held without being face-to-face.


----------



## Julia9054 (15 Mar 2020)

My younger son‘s university have done an about face. On Friday evening, it was business as usual but advising students not to come in for 7 days if they feel unwell. This evening they have informed students that they are completely closed - online teaching only. Not sure how that is going to work for a music performance degree. My son is supposed to have his final year recital on 19th May.


----------



## Salty seadog (15 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> I’m a natural.
> [/QUOTE





Mike_P said:


> In the absence of any toilet rolls shoppers in Waitrose had obviously ignored the use of newspaper and gone mad on kitchen rolls. Suspect there will be a big increase in blocked wcs.



I've got three sinks and a water supply. I'll be ok.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Mar 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> I've got three sinks and a water supply. I'll be ok.


Use the toilet like the rest of us!


----------



## Salty seadog (15 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Use the toilet like the rest of us!



I will do for stage one.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I'm disappointed you seem determined to use the virus response as a stick with which to beat the government.
> 
> Plenty of opportunity to do that in relation to other policies.
> 
> ...



Quite right I'm using as a stick to beat the government. It's them that have stripped the NHS to the bone and make us less able to fight the disease. If that "disappoints " you then tough - just keep blowing smoke up Johnsons arse .


----------



## Johnno260 (15 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> I'm going to wear black and no hi-viz so the poilce can't see me.


Since when do motorists notice cyclists anyway.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (15 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm doing LEJOG in May
> 
> So I've got to avoid getting CV, got to hope my accomodation doesn't get CV, got to hope the pubs and restaurants are still open and got to hope we aren't locked down and I'm not allowed to cycle



Don‘t you mean LECOVID?


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Quite right I'm using as a stick to beat the government. It's them that have stripped the NHS to the bone and make us less able to fight the disease. If that "disappoints " you then tough - just keep blowing smoke up Johnsons arse .


I am not, as you put it, blowing smoke up Johnson's arse.

I am trying to asses his performance in relation to the virus outbreak.

Seems to me the lad done, and is doing, good, which is all the more pleasing because I feared we might get his Bojo the Clown act.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Quite right I'm using as a stick to beat the government. It's them that have stripped the NHS to the bone and make us less able to fight the disease. If that "disappoints " you then tough - just keep blowing smoke up Johnsons arse .




I'm just keeping this to hand every time someone comes up with the idea that the NHS has been under attack







I'm putting the spread of the myth down to this


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I am not, as you put it, blowing smoke up Johnson's arse.
> 
> I am trying to asses his performance in relation to the virus outbreak.
> 
> Seems to me the lad done, and is doing, good, which is all the more pleasing because I feared we might get his Bojo the Clown act.



How's he doing good ? - he s done feck all mate ....I've asked you several times what has he done ????


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm just keeping this to hand every time someone comes up with the idea that the NHS has been under attack
> 
> View attachment 508588
> 
> ...


If it is a myth it's very widespread.

Have you got a chart of ITU beds per head ?


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm just keeping this to hand every time someone comes up with the idea that the NHS has been under attack
> 
> View attachment 508588
> 
> ...



So NHS spending has tripled in 19 or 20 years, and at a time of low inflation.

That's hard to characterise as the decimation allegation so often levelled at the Tories.


----------



## CanucksTraveller (15 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Some new neighbours (a lot younger than most of the residents in our street) moved in around 18 months ago. I thought they were a little bit stand-offish as they hardly acknowledge us when out despite our smiles or waves.
> 
> Today they came and put a note in the letter boxes of all us old-timers offering to run any errands and assist if we have problems until this is sorted or if some lock-down or isolation happens.



I've posted two such letters through doors on my street. My next door neighbor down the hill is a widow in her 80s, I've lived next to her for 8 years now and we still don't know each other. (But not for want of trying, I have offered her help with her garden but she's stone deaf and never hears me when I speak to her). I'm hoping the letter gets through better, and I hope she doesn't do the old person thing of "not wishing to be a bother". I'd be really scared in her position.


----------



## mjr (15 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm just keeping this to hand every time someone comes up with the idea that the NHS has been under attack
> 
> View attachment 508588
> 
> ...


I blame the second graph for you not realising the first graph includes spending on R&D, Public Health England and more, besides the NHS.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> So NHS spending has tripled in 19 or 20 years, and at a time of low inflation.
> 
> That's hard to characterise as the decimation allegation so often levelled at the Tories.


Seriously ???? ?????

Check the rate of inflation on Drugs .


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Seriously ???? ?????
> 
> Check the rate of inflation on Drugs .



What's that got to do with it?

Spending has either gone up, gone down, or remained static.

Seems clear spending has gone up, although I take @mjr's point about other health related spending being included in the graph.

That's not so much of a problem if each year has been calculated in the same manner.

One thing it does prove is judging annual government spending on anything is difficult because figures don't always show what they appear to show.


----------



## Randomnerd (15 Mar 2020)

Leaked document says the virus will be around for good. Eight in ten will contract. Seems BoJo knew this when he last stood up and flapped his gums. 


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-see-79m-hospitalised?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I am not, as you put it, blowing smoke up Johnson's arse.
> 
> I am trying to *asses* his performance in relation to the virus outbreak.
> 
> Seems to me the lad done, and is doing, good, which is all the more pleasing because I feared we might get his Bojo the Clown act.


Assess, FFS


----------



## kingrollo (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> What's that got to do with it?
> 
> Spending has either gone up, gone down, or remained static.
> 
> ...



Because if the cost of drugs rises by 20% - then you need to spend 20% more to purchase the same amount of drugs.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (15 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm just keeping this to hand every time someone comes up with the idea that the NHS has been under attack
> 
> View attachment 508588
> 
> ...



A couple of questions.

Where is the line on the graphs that indicates what they need compared to what they’re getting?
Will the annual NHS spending jump by the £18.2 billion that was on the side of that famous bus?


----------



## Smokin Joe (15 Mar 2020)

One ray of hope in all the doom and gloom is that mankind and all it's experts has proved time and time again it is notoriously bad at predicting the future.


----------



## mjr (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Seems clear spending has gone up, although I take @mjr's point about other health related spending being included in the graph.
> 
> That's not so much of a problem if each year has been calculated in the same manner.


Public Health England began operating on 1 April 2013, so no.


----------



## Buck (15 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm just keeping this to hand every time someone comes up with the idea that the NHS has been under attack
> 
> View attachment 508588
> 
> ...



The important piece as well is spend per head of population which until 2020 was decreasing.

Also medical inflation is generally higher than CPI.


----------



## Pale Rider (15 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Because if the cost of drugs rises by 20% - then you need to spend 20% more to purchase the same amount of drugs.



What the increased spending will buy is an entirely separate point.

It's likely the cost of some treatments will have declined in that period due to advances in medical science, and some treatments may have increased in cost for the same reason.

Equally, some conditions might now be treated on the NHS, at whatever cost, that were previously not, due to those same advances and/or a change in policy.



mjr said:


> Public Health England began operating on 1 April 2013, so no.



Fair enough, so the graph may be out of whack for the last seven years.

To be fair to those that compiled it, it is labelled as overall UK healthcare spending


----------



## Proto (15 Mar 2020)

This has possibly been posted before, but a clear and considered critique of government policy. Might be worth getting some of your more hysterical contacts to read it.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238518371651649538.html


----------



## mjr (15 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> To be fair to those that compiled it, it is labelled as overall UK healthcare spending


Indeed, but is the cost of part of the Dept of Health really healthcare spending rather than cost of government?

At best, it doesn't show NHS funding like it was being misused for.


----------



## DCLane (15 Mar 2020)

Randomnerd said:


> Leaked document says the virus will be around for good. Eight in ten will contract. Seems BoJo knew this when he last stood up and flapped his gums.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-see-79m-hospitalised?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other



Which wouldn't surprise me and would explain why they're wanting this herd immunity approach. Given China/Hong Kong's alternative that puts them as having a resurgence.

Basically we're all expected to get ill over time, except those who are old/vulnerable who will be hidden away until a vaccine's ready. Which may be significantly longer than the 4-month period they've been quoting.


----------



## classic33 (15 Mar 2020)

Dry St. Patrick's Day
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-ireland-closes-all-pubs-days-before-st-patricks-day-11958078


----------



## Slick (15 Mar 2020)

Dry St. Patrick's Day
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-ireland-closes-all-pubs-days-before-st-patricks-day-11958078
[/QUOTE]
I reckon there will be some ingenious ways devised to celebrate but still comply with the new regulations.


----------



## classic33 (15 Mar 2020)

Slick said:


> I reckon there will be some ingenious ways devised to celebrate but still comply with the new regulations.


Next item on the list of items bought to excess.


----------



## midlife (15 Mar 2020)

Well, made sandwiches for lunch tomorrow and will pitch up at work tomorrow morning as I am clinically well. Not sure what I'll be doing as activity in the department seriously curtailed midday Friday.


----------



## Slick (15 Mar 2020)

classic33 said:


> Next item on the list of items bought to excess.


At least I could understand that one.


----------



## classic33 (15 Mar 2020)

Slick said:


> At least I could understand that one.


They get to the till and are told "No more than two of the same item".


----------



## Slick (15 Mar 2020)

classic33 said:


> They get to the till and are told "No more than two of the same item".


That won't end well in some of the more salubrious areas of Glasgow let alone the old country.


----------



## classic33 (15 Mar 2020)

Slick said:


> That won't end well in some of the more salubrious areas of Glasgow let alone the old country.


Glasgow is in Ireland!!


----------



## Adam4868 (15 Mar 2020)

Slick said:


> I reckon there will be some ingenious ways devised to celebrate but still comply with the new regulations.


Like crossing the imaginary border ?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (15 Mar 2020)

classic33 said:


> Glasgow is in Ireland!!


Some think so


----------



## Jenkins (15 Mar 2020)

Out of interest, does anyone know how many MPs (including the outgoing Leader of the Oposition which will please some people) will be covered by any potential requirement to self isolate for the over 70s? How will this affect the running of Parliament?


----------



## PK99 (15 Mar 2020)

Jenkins said:


> Out of interest, does anyone know how many MPs (including the outgoing Leader of the Oposition which will please some people) will be covered by any potential requirement to self isolate for the over 70s? How will this affect the running of Parliament?



This was the list for the last parliament:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_by_seniority_(2017–2019)

There were 37 who would now be over 70, but some left parliament at the election so we can assume it is less than 37


----------



## kynikos (15 Mar 2020)

And the answer is...

23


----------



## Racing roadkill (15 Mar 2020)

It’s a respiratory thing ( at worst ) not dysentery. Unless you cough so hard you crap your pants, why the rush on bog roll.


----------



## Jenkins (15 Mar 2020)

Thanks both, I've just found the current list (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_by_seniority_(2019–present) and it's not as 'old' a Parliament as I expected. The House of Lords on the other hand...


----------



## Stephenite (15 Mar 2020)

I do think that the UKs present policy of focusing on 'herd immunity' and letting tens of thousands of people die is a cover story whilst preparations are made for a lockdown much as what you find in the rest of Europe.


----------



## Wobblers (16 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> In what way is UK strategy looking inept?
> 
> Every western country is adopting a herd immunity strategy in which a lot of people get infected and the immunity stops the spread. All that is differing is the methodology to achieve herd immunity
> 
> ...



Hmmm. I understand the strategy, but I'm not convinced that it will work. In particular, I'm sceptical that it'll take the UK four weeks to reach the stage that Italy is. The current data (40% growth in infections per day) pretty much mirrors what Italy was two weeks ago. That suggests that we should be moving to banning large meetings and closing bars/restaurants etc sooner rather than later.

The government strategy is based on two assumptions. The first is that most transmissions occur when people are ill - hence the advice to self isolate when you've got a persistent cough or a fever. But we know that transmissions occur before symptoms appear: it's estimated that around 25% of all infections occur that way. Furthermore, at least half of those infected do not become ill - the assumption is that they are not infectious. At the moment, we don't know whether or not that is true.

The other assumption is based on the "ascertainment rate": that's the number of people who get the illness but never present to the medical authorities for one reason or other. For Covid-19, this is estimated to be between 75% to over 90% don't appear in the official figures - it is quite reasonable to assume that this is because they either have very mild symptoms or none at all. I've been spending some time this evening looking at he medical literature, most is suggesting that this number to be 90%.

Let's calculate some numbers, so we can have a stab at what's at stake here. First, the worst case scenario. Almost all people get infected, and the ascertainment ratio is low. So, 60 million infections, of which 15 million become noticeably ill. Of those, 5% will become critically ill. In this situation, the NHS will be overwhelmed, suggesting a case fatality rate of 4%. That's 600,000 people! This is roughly the same number of casualties you'd get if a sizable nuclear bomb was detonated over Sheffield (some of you who've been following the _Threads_ of this post will understand why Sheffield...)

The better case: herd immunity at 40 million infections. 90% do not go on to develop significant symptoms. That's still 4 million infections, but the NHS is able to cope and the case fatality rate is 1%. Which is still 40,000 people. 

I'm not sure what to make of this strategy, to be honest. 40 thousand people is still an awful high number. On the other hand, China's extreme lockdown has left almost all the population vulnerable to Covid-19. It will get reintroduced to China, probably sooner rather than later - and there's no guarantee that they'll be this lucky the next time.

It's a huge gamble we're taking. The scientific advisors assisting the government have better, and more, data than we do. I just hope they're right.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (16 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> Hmmm. I understand the strategy, but I'm not convinced that it will work. In particular, I'm sceptical that it'll take the UK four weeks to reach the stage that Italy is. The current data (40% growth in infections per day) pretty much mirrors what Italy was two weeks ago. That suggests that we should be moving to banning large meetings and closing bars/restaurants etc sooner rather than later.
> 
> The government strategy is based on two assumptions. The first is that most transmissions occur when people are ill - hence the advice to self isolate when you've got a persistent cough or a fever. But we know that transmissions occur before symptoms appear: it's estimated that around 25% of all infections occur that way. Furthermore, at least half of those infected do not become ill - the assumption is that they are not infectious. At the moment, we don't know whether or not that is true.
> 
> ...


I like the way you paint and contrast the two scenarios. Good work!

I understand the 600,000 fatality case, but less so with the other. 

Since we all happily have similar population for ease of comparison, knowing hospitals in Hubei were and now Italy are on their knees with X0,000 infected over a period of a couple of months, what do you think is the likelihood that our precious nhs might "cope", achieving 1% fatality, with 40,000,000 infected even if spread over twice/thrice/N times as long, when we are talking about some 1000 times more infected?


----------



## DCLane (16 Mar 2020)

@McWobble - your numbers consider the population as a whole, but we know that it's mostly age 70+ and immunosupressed that subsequently die.

The plan is to 'hide' them away, which means the general death rate is likely to be much lower; i.e. let everyone else get it, recover and then let the 'hidden' come out.


----------



## nickyboy (16 Mar 2020)

@McWobble I think the other consideration is whether other steps that will be taken will reduce the R0 sufficiently to make a dent in the numbers. Closing bars and restaurants for example, more social distancing.

What I don't understand is what is Spain and Italy's strategy? Are they hoping a lockdown stops transmission so most of the population never catch the virus or do they expect many millions to catch it and the lockdowns are a tool to flatten the curve and reduce the R0

Like you I would be concerned with a strategy to stop it in its tracks like China. We are at least 12 months from a vaccine. Can countries with high freedom of movement maintain a lockdown or semi lockdown for a year?


----------



## oldfatfool (16 Mar 2020)

Absolutely disgusted with this country, sons fiancee is 23 so only young but she has a heart condition and has had minor heart attacks in the past. She has developed a sore throat, tightness I the chest and a fever, rung 111 and her own gp and told to self isolate, they will test her in a week if she is no better. One way of keeping the case numbers down!! Son is also having to self isolating when he should have been starting a new job today (just his luck). Why the fiddly fark arent they testing her when she is in a high risk group! Oh that's right she is not over 60


----------



## marinyork (16 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> What I don't understand is what is Spain and Italy's strategy? Are they hoping a lockdown stops transmission so most of the population never catch the virus or do they expect many millions to catch it and the lockdowns are a tool to flatten the curve and reduce the R0
> 
> Like you I would be concerned with a strategy to stop it in its tracks like China. We are at least 12 months from a vaccine. Can countries with high freedom of movement maintain a lockdown or semi lockdown for a year?



Sigh. Right, ignore what your mate has told you in alicante for a second this time.

Italy has had three lockdowns. They also had a fourth major set of changes after the third lockdown wasn't working fully. The first two lockdowns didn't work. It was widely flouted. Additionally after the national lockdown further measures - basically nearly everything closed was implemented. Apart from that schools and universities were also closed before lockdown 2 and 3. 

The only difference between countries is Italy did it first and deaths have continued to rise, so other populations may take it more seriously more quickly. Many won't hold out much hope on that.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (16 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> @McWobble - your numbers consider the population as a whole, but we know that it's mostly age 70+ and immunosupressed that subsequently die.
> 
> The plan is to 'hide' them away, which means the general death rate is likely to be much lower; i.e. let everyone else get it, recover and then let the 'hidden' come out.



I've read of the plan to ask those over 70 to self-isolate but I haven't seen what the government wants to do about those of us with conditions that make this virus a more serious threat to life. As my wife and I fall into the latter category I do try to keep up to date, do you have any link to the government's advice about this?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (16 Mar 2020)

I don't seem to have seen this online here: French authorities have counselled against taking Ibuprofen if anyone's self-isolating because of COVID-19 symptoms. They believe it has led to respiratory complications. 

There also appears to be a danger from ACE-inhibitors, such as Ramipril, but I think that has been mentioned upthread. Current advice is to continue taking them unless advised to the contrary.


----------



## nickyboy (16 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Sigh. Right, ignore what your mate has told you in alicante for a second this time.
> 
> Italy has had three lockdowns. They also had a fourth major set of changes after the third lockdown wasn't working fully. The first two lockdowns didn't work. It was widely flouted. Additionally after the national lockdown further measures - basically nearly everything closed was implemented. Apart from that schools and universities were also closed before lockdown 2 and 3.
> 
> The only difference between countries is Italy did it first and deaths have continued to rise, so other populations may take it more seriously more quickly. Many won't hold out much hope on that.


I'm not sure what you're referring to regarding any friends I have in Spain, this is a general question unrelated to any cycling conversations I had with them

So do you think that Italy is expecting that its lockdown strategy will result in most of the population never contracting the virus? Or do you think they expect that most will contract it and these steps are to flatten the curve and reduce the R0?

Genuine question as I don't know the answer. If they are expecting most to become infected then it's like the UK strategy but a different route. If they expect most not to become infected then it's different from the UK strategy


----------



## mjr (16 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I've read of the plan to ask those over 70 to self-isolate but I haven't seen what the government wants to do about those of us with conditions that make this virus a more serious threat to life. As my wife and I fall into the latter category I do try to keep up to date, do you have any link to the government's advice about this?


There's naff all on https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-government-response AFAICT. This seems unhelpful. Maybe you could email them a wake-up?


----------



## cookiemonster (16 Mar 2020)

All these EU nations now controlling their borders to contain the virus. Weren’t we told for several years that we needed to leave the EU to do this?


----------



## PK99 (16 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I*There also appears to be a danger from ACE-inhibitors, such as Ramipril, but I think that has been mentioned upthread. Current advice is to continue taking them unless advised to the contrary.*



I take Ramipril so have an active interest in this. 

_*Because of the social media-related amplification*, patients taking these drugs for their high blood pressure and their doctors have become increasingly concerned, and, in some cases, have stopped taking their ACE-I or ARB medications.

This speculation about the safety of ACE-i or ARB treatment in relation to COVID-19 does not have a sound scientific basis or evidence to support it. Indeed, there is evidence from studies in animals suggesting that these medications might be rather protective against serious lung complications in patients with COVID-19 infection, but to date there is no data in humans.

The Council on Hypertension of the European Society of Cardiology wish to highlight the lack of any evidence supporting harmful effect of ACE-I and ARB in the context of the pandemic COVID-19 outbreak.

*The Council on Hypertension strongly recommends that physicians and patients should continue treatment with their usual anti-hypertensive therapy because there is no clinical or scientific evidence to suggest that treatment with ACEi or ARBs should be discontinued because of the Covid-19 infection*._

https://www.escardio.org/Councils/C...cil-on-hypertension-on-ace-inhibitors-and-ang


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (16 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> I take Ramipril so have an active interest in this.
> 
> _*Because of the social media-related amplification*, patients taking these drugs for their high blood pressure and their doctors have become increasingly concerned, and, in some cases, have stopped taking their ACE-I or ARB medications.
> 
> ...


I also take Ramipril, in fact I'll be off to the pharmacy today to pick up my next 3 months' worth. I'm not planning to stop without medical advice.


----------



## snorri (16 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I've read of the plan to ask those over 70 to self-isolate but I haven't seen what the government wants to do about those of us with conditions that make this virus a more serious threat to life. As my wife and I fall into the latter category I do try to keep up to date, do you have any link to the government's advice about this?


I have no faith in any of the sound bites from random people at Westminster whose honesty has been brought in to question on so many topics in past months. Instead I'm placing my faith in the words of Jason Leitch, National Clinical Director who speaks clearly and confidently and is medically qualified. There is new stuff coming up all the time from BBC Scotland on it's own website and via Twitter. Here's a link from yesterday. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51898288

There is not a UK nationwide policy as this extract of a report in The Telegraph makes clear, so utterings from Westmister may not apply throughout the UK.........
"People aged over 70 face up to four months in self-isolation and the public risk being taken into custody or being given a £1,000 fine if they refuse to be tested or quarantined for suspected coronavirus.
The emergency powers, expected to be announced this week, allow police in England and Wales to use "reasonable force" to detain people who are at risk of infecting others."


----------



## Pale Rider (16 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> I have no faith in any of the sound bites from random people at Westminster



Looks like we are to get a daily dose of Boris - and others.

I can't see it becoming required viewing, but I will have a look see at the first one and occasionally thereafter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51901818


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Looks like we are to get a daily dose of Boris - and others.
> 
> I can't see it becoming required viewing, but I will have a look see at the first one and occasionally thereafter.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51901818


----------



## fossyant (16 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I also take Ramipril, in fact I'll be off to the pharmacy today to pick up my next 3 months' worth. I'm not planning to stop without medical advice.



My sister takes it too, but it causes her to get a dry mouth, and had a coughing fit in the gym this week. The looks she got. 'It's OK, I'm on Ramipril'.


----------



## Rusty Nails (16 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Absolutely disgusted with this country, sons fiancee is 23 so only young but she has a heart condition and has had minor heart attacks in the past. She has developed a sore throat, tightness I the chest and a fever, rung 111 and her own gp and told to self isolate, they will test her in a week if she is no better. One way of keeping the case numbers down!! Son is also having to self isolating when he should have been starting a new job today (just his luck). Why the fiddly fark arent they testing her when she is in a high risk group! Oh that's right she is not over 60


They are not testing the over 60s unless the symptoms become very severe.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (16 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> @McWobble I think the other consideration is whether other steps that will be taken will reduce the R0 sufficiently to make a dent in the numbers. Closing bars and restaurants for example, more social distancing.
> 
> *What I don't understand is what is Spain and Italy's strategy? Are they hoping a lockdown stops transmission so most of the population never catch the virus or do they expect many millions to catch it and the lockdowns are a tool to flatten the curve and reduce the R0*
> 
> Like you I would be concerned with a strategy to stop it in its tracks like China. We are at least 12 months from a vaccine. Can countries with high freedom of movement maintain a lockdown or semi lockdown for a year?


I am sure McWobble will come along and give us great answers to your question, but I think the 1) "herd immunity" scenario, which would only have any meaning if 60%+ caught it etc. etc., and 2) flattening curve so demands matching nhs surge capacity scenario, are mutually exclusive. Scenario 1) will likely throw tens if not hundreds of times of patients nhs can handle into their ICUs as I alluded to above. Think this is why many including me are so unhappy with Boris/CMO/CSA's "plan", which hitherto has not done enough to flatten the curve.

I think it is kind of funny that on one hand i) we say people here will not adhere to distancing restrictions like that in Korea, and it is a reason why we should accept 60%+ catching it in a wave so that we can be immune happily after, while on the other hand ii) the latter requires putting the elderly and ill young in much much stricter isolation for months, because with i) the vast majority of the population remains uninfected hence inevitable carelessness are unlikely to infect - only 0.17% of Hubei are infected e.g., while for ii) the vulnerable will be living amongst everybody who are either infected or to be infected and none of them would know who's still infectious but they are all around them. If i) won't work here, why would ii)?

On top of that, do we accept that: a) nobody knows if herd immunity works for this new virus, b) hitherto for killer virus countries developed and relied on herd immunity by giving the vast majority vaccines, not a virus that kills, c) for the under 70 who did not get infected in the wave do we make sure they get infected to make up the 60%+ infected necessary, knowing it kills the young too and about 3.6% of 60-70 - do we not call that murder?, and d) even if ALL the young(er) got infected and were indeed immune next season/years, does it really put the country in a safe harbour, when someone in the Women's Institute caught it from her visitor from Timbuktu?

Why Italy and Spain, and indeed France are locking down? I think it is because nobody will risk killing close to a million to test a hypothesis with implementation challenges, will you? The only thing that is proven to "work" (only for now I admit, and it does take at least a couple of weeks to flatten the curve), is what they did in China, Singapore, Hongkong, Korea. Nobody said they are home and dry, and who knows what happens when they reopen their schools? But at least they bought themselves time and a chance, without having to kill millions.

And they are learning - I believe in Hongkong nowadays literally everyone of the few they might identify each day are associated with travellers entering the territory. So if tests can be developed with quicker result turnaround (4 hours is quickest atm I think), that door can potentially be shut with limited downside and cost too, without vaccines.

Some defend the government accepting a wave of infection to develop herd immunity by saying it may be less adverse economically and socially compared to a lockdown strategy. Has anybody seen any comparison? How many have they assumed would die from tens of millions being infected, and what are the economical and social consequences of that?


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## glasgowcyclist (16 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> I have no faith in any of the sound bites from random people at Westminster whose honesty has been brought in to question on so many topics in past months. Instead I'm placing my faith in the words of Jason Leitch, National Clinical Director who speaks clearly and confidently and is medically qualified. There is new stuff coming up all the time from BBC Scotland on it's own website and via Twitter. Here's a link from yesterday. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51898288



Thanks, I had seen that and there’s no information beyond what’s expected of the over 70s.


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## ozboz (16 Mar 2020)

I am not a Politician , Scientist or Doctor, but in my book if I do not go near to infected persons and infected persons do not come near me, I have less chance of succumbing to this virus, common sense that in reality has been around for centuries, up to now I’ve heard a lot about the over 70’s , this morning some woman mentioned on Sky News 65-70’s ?
A Boffin on sky basically said earlier that the UK govt is coming out with solutions from half baked flawed information that they are listening to .
Not very reassuring is it ,


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1239528396671135745


----------



## MartinQ (16 Mar 2020)

MichaelO said:


> 🤦‍♂️



Purely as an educational opportunity :-)

View: https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg


----------



## numbnuts (16 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> I am not a Politician , Scientist or Doctor, but in my book if I do not go near to infected persons and infected persons do not come near me, I have less chance of succumbing to this virus, common sense that in reality has been around for centuries, up to now I’ve heard a lot about the over 70’s , this morning some woman mentioned on Sky News 65-70’s ?
> A Boffin on sky basically said earlier that the UK govt is coming out with solutions from half baked flawed information that they are listening to .
> Not very reassuring is it ,


And don't touch anything outside your own home or live in a hazmat suit 24/7, I don't call that living


----------



## icowden (16 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> A Boffin on sky basically said earlier that the UK govt is coming out with solutions from half baked flawed information that they are listening to .
> Not very reassuring is it ,



Any idea who the boffin is? I mean, despite Gove's assurance that we don't need experts we do have Prof Chris Whitty (DOH Top scientific advisor, and Professor of Epidemiology - also a practicing Consultant) and Sir Patrick Vallance who has a reasonable pedigree. Interestingly although there was a letter from 229 University scientists challenging his views on herd immunity, only 3 of those were epidemiologists.


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## Dave7 (16 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> I am not a Politician , Scientist or Doctor,


What are you doing on Cycle Chat then . There seems to be loads on here
Me and MrsD are in our 70s. We have both been feeling rough since December (with the lurgy that many people got) but I think if CV comes our way we are on our own as you cant get to see a Doctor and from what I read 111** is no use at the moment.
**111 was brilliant for me 5 years ago but arw swamped now.


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## PaulB (16 Mar 2020)

And now we've got spring.....springing. And what comes with spring? Hay fever. So hay fever sufferers will be treated like lepers and their regular red eyes/runny noses and other hay fever symptoms will mark them down for suspicion and people crossing the road to avoid them.


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## Pale Rider (16 Mar 2020)

First direct impact on me - my GP surgery has moved to dial-a-doc.

I was due in tomorrow, but that will now be on the phone.

I've no big problem with that, but the doctor's first language is not English which means it's easier to communicate with him face to face.

Part of my appointment is to give the doctor the box from a style of bandages given to me at the hospital so that he can prescribe the correct type.

I will now have to hand that in at the reception.

Again, no worries, but I'm tempted to go there at appointment time and ring him for my consultation from the waiting area.


----------



## marinyork (16 Mar 2020)

If anyone is interested a favourite youtube channel has done a vid on coronavirus (they don't do many vids)


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-E_Okc_Fp3w


----------



## ozboz (16 Mar 2020)

icowden said:


> Any idea who the boffin is? I mean, despite Gove's assurance that we don't need experts we do have Prof Chris Whitty (DOH Top scientific advisor, and Professor of Epidemiology - also a practicing Consultant) and Sir Patrick Vallance who has a reasonable pedigree. Interestingly although there was a letter from 229 University scientists challenging his views on herd immunity, only 3 of those were epidemiologists.


Sorry I do not recall his name , he was on this morning, the Scot reporter was hosting the show , I took it as he knew his stuff,


----------



## Rocky (16 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> First direct impact on me - my GP surgery has moved to dial-a-doc.
> 
> I was due in tomorrow, but that will now be on the phone.
> 
> ...


The Prof has been working all weekend on guidance and protocols for telephone and video GP consultations for NHSE and the Royal College of GPs. It sounds like your GP is ahead of the curve with this. The Prof suggests you take a photo of the bandage box and see if you can email or upload it to the practice’s EMIS patient access system. Do let us know how the consultation goes!!


----------



## pawl (16 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> I have no faith in any of the sound bites from random people at Westminster whose honesty has been brought in to question on so many topics in past months. Instead I'm placing my faith in the words of Jason Leitch, National Clinical Director who speaks clearly and confidently and is medically qualified. There is new stuff coming up all the time from BBC Scotland on it's own website and via Twitter. Here's a link from yesterday. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51898288
> 
> There is not a UK nationwide policy as this extract of a report in The Telegraph makes clear, so utterings from Westmister may not apply throughout the UK.........
> "People aged over 70 face up to four months in self-isolation and the public risk being taken into custody or being given a £1,000 fine if they refuse to be tested or quarantined for suspected coronavirus.
> The emergency powers, expected to be announced this week, allow police in England and Wales to use "reasonable force" to detain people who are at risk of infecting others."



Spain has already introduced fines bit also possibly prison sentence of up to twelve months for people who do not adhere to the emergency laws.


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## Pale Rider (16 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The Prof has been working all weekend on guidance and protocols for telephone and video GP consultations for NHSE and the Royal College of GPs. It sounds like your GP is ahead of the curve with this. The Prof suggests you take a photo of the bandage box and see if you can email or upload it to the practice’s EMIS patient access system. Do let us know how the consultation goes!!



Thanks for taking an interest in my doc dealings.

As with most officialdom, if you want a good result, how you go about dealing with them is almost more important than what you want them to deal with.

A little bit of knowledge and understanding of their side is invaluable.

Taking a pic of the bandage box is a good idea, but happily it's no bother for me to drop it off at the surgery reception.


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## Rocky (16 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Thanks for taking an interest in my doc dealings.
> 
> As with most officialdom, if you want a good result, how you go about dealing with them is almost more important than what you want them to deal with.
> 
> ...


Agreed!! The Prof is very interested in the patient as well as the professional perspective. If it doesn't work for patients, it isn't going to work.....a view that isn't always shared by some medics. She also has written widely on the support staff's role - much repeat prescribing, for example, is processed by the reception/admin team - with the GPs having a cursory glance before adding their signatures to the prescription. I suspect the admin team are going to be even more important at this current time.

No 2 son currently has a couple of fingers splinted following a sports injury. This precludes him from frontline A&E work because he can't wash his hands properly and the latex gloves won't fit. He, however, is ideally suited for video/telephone consultations for patients who are being advised to keep away from surgeries/clinics.


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## Proto (16 Mar 2020)

Just spoken to a manufacturing director mate at a medical equipment company, who produce very sophisticated and complex surgical instruments. They’ve been approached about making ventilators. So to have Rolls Royce and JCB, apparently, which he thought hilarious.
Having studied a ventilator, how it works and what it does, they reckon it wouldn't be at all difficult. They have in house design, electronics (they design and make their own pcb’s), rapid prototyping, clean room assembly and a small army of very switched on sub contractors.
So, chill out, we’ll be fine**. 😄

**as long as you can hang on a couple of months


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## Buck (16 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Taking a pic of the bandage box is a good idea, but happily it's no bother for me to drop it off at the surgery reception.



Can I strongly advise to take a photo and email or link it via your EMIS or SystmOne on line app to prevent any risk to you or others by physically attending.


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## vickster (16 Mar 2020)

GP Surgery just cancelled my non urgent appointment for later in week.

Blood donor centre still want me to attend on Thursday (although waiting on them to confirm that I can actually donate)


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## Joey Shabadoo (16 Mar 2020)

Watching the press conference, it’s getting scary. Can’t believe they’re not legally enforcing their measures because they trust the public to be “grown up and do the right thing”.


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## Rocky (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Watching the press conference, it’s getting scary. Can’t believe they’re not legally enforcing their measures because they trust the public to be “grown up and do the right thing”.


Switzerland tried that last week. It didn’t work. My friend tells me that it is compulsory lockdown from midnight.


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## carlosfandangus (16 Mar 2020)

TT has just been cancelled because of corona, no positive tests here yet


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## nickyboy (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Watching the press conference, it’s getting scary. Can’t believe they’re not legally enforcing their measures because they trust the public to be “grown up and do the right thing”.


Yes I would have preferred to see them closed down. I guess it's suck it and see. Pubs and restaurants will close naturally as they won't have enough customers to justify opening. If people are idiots and places are still rammed then they will be closed down legally I guess, like they were in Ireland


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## glasgowcyclist (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Can’t believe they’re not legally enforcing their measures



I’m sure they will when the need arises and I expect they anticipate doing so before very long. 

However, I feel they are taking the (correct, in my view) approach of getting the majority of the sensible and law-abiding public on board with voluntary compliance. This way there should be widespread peer pressure to comply and only when that fails will they resort to enforcement.


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## Joey Shabadoo (16 Mar 2020)

Did I pick it up right that he said near the start, people who are particularly vulnerable will be told later this week to self-isolate for 12 weeks?


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## vickster (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Did I pick it up right that he said near the start, people who are particularly vulnerable will be told later this week to self-isolate for 12 weeks?


broadly yes

From BBC ... Mr Johnson said that by next weekend, those with the most serious health conditions must be "largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks".


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## flake99please (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Did I pick it up right that he said near the start, people who are particularly vulnerable will be told later this week to self-isolate for 12 weeks?



That’s how I thought heard it too. We both could be wrong though.


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## Joey Shabadoo (16 Mar 2020)

My wife certainly falls in the most vulnerable group.


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## snorri (16 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> I think if CV comes our way we are on our own as you cant get to see a Doctor and from what I read 111** is no use at the moment.
> **111 was brilliant for me 5 years ago but arw swamped now.


It worked for me on Saturday, I had to listen to the recorded message for an hour, then assure them I wasn't suffering Covid symptoms, but 30 minutes after putting my phone down I was face to face with a doctor.


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## RecordAceFromNew (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Did I pick it up right that he said near the start, people who are particularly vulnerable will be told later this week to self-isolate for 12 weeks?


Think he said from Friday?

This is a timely and far better direction the government is setting than it has been. Hope it continues.


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## tom73 (16 Mar 2020)

Social scientists are very much part of of the government science panel. Guess the thinking is try it behaviour change is part of other all thinking and planning.Go heavy now may not work get people use to the idea. 
However if people take the pee and given they already have the powers they need. It won't take much to use.
One think to note was being able to go out to exercise. So cycling is ok for the moment


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (16 Mar 2020)

flake99please said:


> That’s how I thought heard it too. We both could be wrong though.


And that confusion is because of a shambolic presentation. There should be no confusion at all.


----------



## GM (16 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> First direct impact on me - my GP surgery has moved to dial-a-doc.
> I was due in tomorrow, but that will now be on the phone.
> I've no big problem with that, but the doctor's first language is not English which means it's easier to communicate with him face to face.
> Part of my appointment is to give the doctor the box from a style of bandages given to me at the hospital so that he can prescribe the correct type.
> ...





Brompton Bruce said:


> Agreed!! The Prof is very interested in the patient as well as the professional perspective. If it doesn't work for patients, it isn't going to work.....a view that isn't always shared by some medics. She also has written widely on the support staff's role - much repeat prescribing, for example, is processed by the reception/admin team - with the GPs having a cursory glance before adding their signatures to the prescription. I suspect the admin team are going to be even more important at this current time.



Similar, I've an appointment for tomorrow at 8.10am, got a text message this morning to tell me a clinician will call me and not to come to the surgery. So I'm expecting an early morning call. Suits me fine as it only an addition prescription request and a referral for some new hearing aids.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 Mar 2020)

I understand keeping 'er indoors indoors for 3 months, but does that mean I have to as well?


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## GM (16 Mar 2020)

*No 2 son currently has a couple of fingers splinted following a sports injury.* This precludes him from frontline A&E work because he can't wash his hands properly and the latex gloves won't fit. He, however, is ideally suited for video/telephone consultations for patients who are being advised to keep away from surgeries/clinics.
[/QUOTE]

Not again!!!


----------



## Rocky (16 Mar 2020)

GM said:


> *No 2 son currently has a couple of fingers splinted following a sports injury.* This precludes him from frontline A&E work because he can't wash his hands properly and the latex gloves won't fit. He, however, is ideally suited for video/telephone consultations for patients who are being advised to keep away from surgeries/clinics.



Not again!!! 
[/QUOTE]
Yes, unfortunately  ....... for a doctor, he spends a lot of time as a patient!! Should give @Hill Wimp a laugh


----------



## glasgowcyclist (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> My wife certainly falls in the most vulnerable group.



Feck.

All the best, I hope you’re both able to stay healthy.
Have a socially distanced hug


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## flake99please (16 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And that confusion is because of a shambolic presentation. There should be no confusion at all.



To be fair, I was pre-occupied by my 18 month old Granddaughter at the time. No doubt all the key points will appear on the scrolling banners of most news channels for the foreseeable....


----------



## Glow worm (16 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And that confusion is because of a shambolic presentation. There should be no confusion at all.



Agree- it was a bit vague. The PM did at least say we can go out for exercising so hopefully that includes cycling?!


----------



## SpokeyDokey (16 Mar 2020)

Has there been any advice issued for the likes of plumbers, carpenters, electricians etc?

I can see some of these vulnerable little businesses going to the wall...


----------



## nickyboy (16 Mar 2020)

No more cafe stops on rides. I've added flapjack etc to the shopping list


----------



## marinyork (16 Mar 2020)

flake99please said:


> That’s how I thought heard it too. We both could be wrong though.



He did say that. It's actually been said a number of times on less grandiose press conferences. Sometimes it's been said 12 weeks, sometimes 16. 

They aren't closing schools yet apparently, but same thing said on that, for 12, 13, 16 weeks etc. Said that as far back as late January on the contingency planning.


----------



## flake99please (16 Mar 2020)

Some good news for those wishing to get about during this outbreak.


View: https://twitter.com/evankirstel/status/1239572112022568962?s=21


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## Mike_P (16 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> Agree- it was a bit vague. The PM did at least say we can go out for exercising so hopefully that includes cycling?!


That's what it seems like but elsewhere its seen as a potential drain on medical resources through accidents. On the other hand how many people self isolating are going to do so DIY with consequential A&E or worse needs.


----------



## Mugshot (16 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Has there been any advice issued for the likes of plumbers, carpenters, electricians etc?
> 
> I can see some of these vulnerable little businesses going to the wall...


Nothing that I know of. 
There's a whole plethora of little businesses that will be hammered by this. I emailed my council today to try to find out what's going to happen to business rates, and so far the answer is nothing, that of course is on top of rents and utilities that are paid. We're effectively looking at a situation where the public are either being told not to go shopping or our shops are closed during a lockdown (both understandable BTW) and we will currently be expected to stump up the same outgoings with no income. It's not sustainable, there will be a huge number of little businesses that'll go to the wall and self employed people that will start to suffer very quickly indeed. What happens then with rents and mortgages. It's a real worry.


----------



## Smokin Joe (16 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Nothing that I know of.
> There's a whole plethora of little businesses that will be hammered by this. I emailed my council today to try to find out what's going to happen to business rates, and so far the answer is nothing, that of course is on top of rents and utilities that are paid. We're effectively looking at a situation where the public are either being told not to go shopping or our shops are closed during a lockdown (both understandable BTW) and we will currently be expected to stump up the same outgoings with no income. It's not sustainable, there will be a huge number of little businesses that'll go to the wall and self employed people that will start to suffer very quickly indeed. What happens then with rents and mortgages. It's a real worry.


Indeed. One of the regulars we get in the shop every morning runs a nearby restaurant and he told us that since Saturday he has had three advance bookings for around thirty guests phone up and cancel. A local hotel lost a very large booking for a wedding reception due in a couple of weeks, and another of our customers who is a member of a local cycling group (A sort of club, but not quite) tells me that they have cancelled a meal for about 25 that had been booked before Christmas.

As you know Mugshot, this area heavily relies on tourism and the fallout is going to be catastrophic. Luckily you're not in that game and I hope you get through and out the other side.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> That's what it seems like but elsewhere its seen as a potential drain on medical resources through accidents. On the other hand how many people self isolating are going to do so DIY with consequential A&E or worse needs.



Accidents and drain is a red herring or in other terms load of bollocks. Far more injured in showers , DIY, cars...


----------



## Dave7 (16 Mar 2020)

flake99please said:


> To be fair, I was pre-occupied by my 18 month old Granddaughter at the time. No doubt all the key points will appear on the scrolling banners of most news channels for the foreseeable....


Ahhhh not many things nicer than an 18 month old little girl.
Make the best of it.......next time you blink she will be a stroppy teenager.


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## RecordAceFromNew (16 Mar 2020)

PM Statement

New Guidelines


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## Joey Shabadoo (16 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> PM Statement
> 
> New Guidelines


Aye I read all that, but what does this part actually *mean*?



> So third, in a few days’ time – by this coming weekend – it will be necessary to go further and to ensure that those with the most serious health conditions are largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks.


----------



## Slick (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Aye I read all that, but what does this part actually *mean*?


Everyone over 70 and other vulnerable people will have to self isolate even though they have no symptoms is how I understood it.


----------



## Mugshot (16 Mar 2020)

Be like Arnie, get yourself a donkey and a pony.


View: https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1239383795205169152?s=20


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## Joey Shabadoo (16 Mar 2020)

Slick said:


> Everyone over 70 and other vulnerable people will have to self isolate even though they have no symptoms is how I understood it.



One practical thing my wife & I have discussed is perhaps guaranteed delivery slots from the supermarkets. She already does the weekly shop this way but it's been pretty erratic for the last couple of weeks. If the vulnerable were given priority... but who's going to organise that?


----------



## Mugshot (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> One practical thing my wife & I have discussed is perhaps guaranteed delivery slots from the supermarkets. She already does the weekly shop this way but it's been pretty erratic for the last couple of weeks. If the vulnerable were given priority... but who's going to organise that?


Listening to R4 this morning and they said they'd checked a few and they were booked up around three weeks in advance, normally down here you can pretty much guarantee next day, right now it's about ten days.

But yes, guaranteed for the eldery vulnerable would be good, and an hours shop too.


----------



## Rusty Nails (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Aye I read all that, but what does this part actually *mean*?



Yes, the advice needs to be a bit more specific about "the most serious health conditions".
I am 73 and reasonably fit and healthy, not on any drugs, but I have been diagnosed for the past 15 years as having mild late-onset asthma. It has never caused me any problems, I go for two hour rides 2/3 times a week, and I have never had to use the inhaler, other than one puff of the preventer every most mornings when I remember, but I assume I am classed as elderly vulnerable with an underlying condition.

It is a bit of a kick in the b*lls to realise that is how I am seen and will be treated.


----------



## snorri (16 Mar 2020)

BJ says in his statement......" It goes without saying, we should all only use the NHS when we really need to. And please go online rather than ringing NHS 111. "

What does he mean? I hadn't heard of communicating with the NHS online as an alternative to 111.


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## deptfordmarmoset (16 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Yes, the advice needs to be a bit more specific about "the most serious health conditions".
> I am 73 and reasonably fit and healthy, not on any drugs, but I have been diagnosed for the past 15 years as having mild late-onset asthma. It has never caused me any problems, and I have never had to use the inhaler, other than one puff of the preventer every most mornings when I remember, but I assume I am classed as elderly vulnerable with an underlying condition.
> 
> It is a bit of a kick in the b*lls to realise that is how I am seen and will be treated.


Matt Hancock's words: 

For those who have significant health conditions, the NHS will be in contact with you over the next week. We’ll publish a list of those conditions and if you think you should have been contacted and you haven’t by next week, then get in contact with the NHS.​


----------



## Glow worm (16 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> That's what it seems like but elsewhere its seen as a potential drain on medical resources through accidents.



YB beat me to it above, but yes, if we're going to assess risk like that we'd ban driving immediately!
But I take your point about not putting unnecessary pressure on the NHS.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Matt Hancock's words:
> 
> For those who have significant health conditions, the NHS will be in contact with you over the next week. We’ll publish a list of those conditions and if you think you should have been contacted and you haven’t by next week, then get in contact with the NHS.​


Thank you


----------



## Mugshot (16 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Has there been any advice issued for the likes of plumbers, carpenters, electricians etc?
> 
> I can see some of these vulnerable little businesses going to the wall...





Smokin Joe said:


> Indeed. One of the regulars we get in the shop every morning runs a nearby restaurant and he told us that since Saturday he has had three advance bookings for around thirty guests phone up and cancel. A local hotel lost a very large booking for a wedding reception due in a couple of weeks, and another of our customers who is a member of a local cycling group (A sort of club, but not quite) tells me that they have cancelled a meal for about 25 that had been booked before Christmas.
> 
> As you know Mugshot, this area heavily relies on tourism and the fallout is going to be catastrophic. Luckily you're not in that game and I hope you get through and out the other side.



View: https://twitter.com/ACatInParis/status/1239632204508139520?s=20


----------



## PeteXXX (16 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> BJ says in his statement......" It goes without saying, we should all only use the NHS when we really need to. And please go online rather than ringing NHS 111. "
> 
> What does he mean? I hadn't heard of communicating with the NHS online as an alternative to 111.


111.NHS probably?


----------



## DCLane (16 Mar 2020)

The announcements this evening make me feel this just all got a bit scary


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (16 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> BJ says in his statement......" It goes without saying, we should all only use the NHS when we really need to. And please go online rather than ringing NHS 111. "
> 
> What does he mean? I hadn't heard of communicating with the NHS online as an alternative to 111.


https://111.nhs.uk/


----------



## fossyant (16 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> The announcements this evening make me feel this just all got a bit scary



Yup, without a 'you must do this'. An employer's nightmare.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> One practical thing my wife & I have discussed is perhaps guaranteed delivery slots from the supermarkets. She already does the weekly shop this way but it's been pretty erratic for the last couple of weeks. If the vulnerable were given priority... but who's going to organise that?



Supermarkets can’t do home delivery for everyone. It’s not scaled for that. So it’ll be interesting as you say as to what happens. There’s clearly going to have to be a lot of registration of vulnerable people and locations. Stopping abuse of it nigh on impossible, cause people will try and get round the vulnerable qualification.


----------



## DCLane (16 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Yup, without a 'you must do this'. An employer's nightmare.



My university just cancelled all classes and moved all support online as of 7.30pm. I've had several messages from students so to prevent a deluge I've sent them all some guidance as to what we (I) am going to do. It'll be a late night setting it all up


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## Joey Shabadoo (16 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Supermarkets can’t do home delivery for everyone. It’s not scaled for that. So it’ll be interesting as you say as to what happens. There’s clearly going to have to be a lot of registration of vulnerable people and locations. Stopping abuse of it nigh on impossible, cause people will try and get round the vulnerable qualification.



Unless it's linked to the NHS lists of vulnerable people? An organisational nightmare and you're right, many will try to abuse it.


----------



## fossyant (16 Mar 2020)

Just had various emails from restaurants that I visit - 'we're taking things seriously and our hygene is excellent, please come and dine with us' - life is going to be very difficult for many.


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## Mugshot (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Unless it's linked to the NHS lists of vulnerable people? An organisational nightmare and you're right, many will try to abuse it.


Years ago I worked for a DIY retailer that had a 10% off for OAPs day, it wasn't at all unusual to see some fit young fella dragging a little old lady around the shop.

"Come on then nan, we've got your chainsaw, just the extension ladder and sledge hammer you wanted now wasn't it?"


----------



## fossyant (16 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> My university just cancelled all classes and moved all support online as of 7.30pm. I've had several messages from students so to prevent a deluge I've sent them all some guidance as to what we (I) am going to do. It'll be a late night setting it all up



Same here - email from the VC just now. All 'at risk' staff to work from home. Must check on those of us with those in the 'household' who are at risk.


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## PeteXXX (16 Mar 2020)

Earliest possible date for online home delivery orders is, apparently, 25th March.


----------



## snorri (16 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> https://111.nhs.uk/


Thank You!
I'd never heard of that site before.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (16 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> Thank You!
> I'd never heard of that site before.


It's pretty recent, since the 111 phone lines became inundated, I believe.


----------



## Blue Hills (16 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Years ago I worked for a DIY retailer that had a 10% off for OAPs day, it wasn't at all unusual to see some fit young fella dragging a little old lady around the shop.
> 
> "Come on then nan, we've got your chainsaw, just the extension ladder and sledge hammer you wanted now wasn't it?"


Some Italian supermarkets used to (maybe still do) allow pregnant shoppers to jump the checkout queue. More than once I saw a woman presumably pregnant) with a partner using this.
Couldn't help wondering why he didn't leave her at home in peace with her feet up and just do the shopping himself.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 Mar 2020)

Ok, this made I laugh


View: https://twitter.com/GraceSpelman/status/1239297944081350656


----------



## Blue Hills (16 Mar 2020)

by the by virus threads are multiplying like mad - I think I'm going to have isolate soon - not sure I can handle it all.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (16 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> BJ says in his statement......" It goes without saying, we should all only use the NHS when we really need to. And please go online rather than ringing NHS 111. "
> 
> What does he mean? I hadn't heard of communicating with the NHS online as an alternative to 111.



I only learned of this the other day but you can access NHS via https://111.nhs.uk/

(Edit: Sorry, beaten by several others)


----------



## AuroraSaab (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Ok, this made I laugh
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/GraceSpelman/status/1239297944081350656



Unbelievable. I think the common phrase used these days is 'Tone deaf'.


----------



## Rusty Nails (16 Mar 2020)

I've just read that Idris Elba has tested positive for the virus even though he feels OK and has no symptoms.

I don't know if he's in the UK currently, but take it that the test was not done on the NHS. At least I hope there was no special treatment for him.


----------



## Slick (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> One practical thing my wife & I have discussed is perhaps guaranteed delivery slots from the supermarkets. She already does the weekly shop this way but it's been pretty erratic for the last couple of weeks. If the vulnerable were given priority... but who's going to organise that?


There was a suggestion that the big supermarkets have been turning over billions for years and at the same time collecting all sorts of information on its customers by way of loyalty cards. They already know who the vulnerable people are and could make a decent fist of supporting our pensioners and others as well as anyone.


----------



## pawl (16 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Yes, the advice needs to be a bit more specific about "the most serious health conditions".
> I am 73 and reasonably fit and healthy, not on any drugs, but I have been diagnosed for the past 15 years as having mild late-onset asthma. It has never caused me any problems, I go for two hour rides 2/3 times a week, and I have never had to use the inhaler, other than one puff of the preventer every most mornings when I remember, but I assume I am classed as elderly vulnerable with an underlying condition.
> 
> It is a bit of a kick in the b*lls to realise that is how I am seen and will be treated.



With you on that last comment I had a heart valve replacement in 1973.On discharge the consultant said you can do as much physical exercise as you like once the sternum has healed .Her I am in2020 usually averaging 200 to300 miles a month.Now because i am 79 I am vulnerable and don’t understand how to make decisions about maintaining my health in the current situation.


----------



## marinyork (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Unless it's linked to the NHS lists of vulnerable people? An organisational nightmare and you're right, many will try to abuse it.



Vulnerable is not an agreed upon term throughout several sectors, this is one of the problems from a logistics viewpoint. It would include those in care homes etc. Beyond a few other categories it's quite complicated.

I used to see quite a bit of a supermarket online delivery system from the inside. I would advise trying to do it on-line as you have and as a backup a neighbour or someone else topping up and leaving food outside. I think under the circumstances many would do this, I would do it for my neighbours and I don't even know them. I advise this because the systems aren't very resilient, you'll get orders but the on-line availability will plummet on certain items. The supermarkets unless they use ocado are absolutely shyte at tech for on-line btw.

Of course try and register for any scheme you can as theorised above, you may or may not find you end up on 'the list'.


----------



## Johnno260 (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Watching the press conference, it’s getting scary. Can’t believe they’re not legally enforcing their measures because they trust the public to be “grown up and do the right thing”.


This is my issue, they're asking people to use common sense, from what I have seen in the stores there is a distinct lack of this.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (16 Mar 2020)

Slick said:


> There was a suggestion that the big supermarkets have been turning over billions for years and at the same time collecting all sorts of information on its customers by way of loyalty cards. They already know who the vulnerable people are and could make a decent fist of supporting our pensioners and others as well as anyone.


Iceland are apparently opening early for OAPs to shop without having to fight with younger people for access to restocked shelves. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51906744

I'd hope that this spreads around other stores too.

EDIT: though note it's only some Iceland stores and it's local decisions.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Mar 2020)

Slick said:


> There was a suggestion that the big supermarkets have been turning over billions for years and at the same time collecting all sorts of information on its customers by way of loyalty cards. They already know who the vulnerable people are and could make a decent fist of supporting our pensioners and others as well as anyone.



The only thing known in terms of vulnerable is age. For those who signed up. They know nothing of health conditions. Not sure what you mean by turn over billions what’s that meant to mean?


----------



## Johnno260 (16 Mar 2020)

Some of the local business near me like kids soft play are closed, but they switched business model already, the softplay with 5 star food hygience has switched to a food delivery service for premade meals.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (16 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> This is my issue, they're asking people to use common sense, from what I have seen in the stores there is a distinct lack of this.



When it becomes obvious that certain elements of society are failing to follow guidance the enforcement will come and government will be able to say, quite rightly, “it’s their fault we’re having to take this step”.


----------



## tom73 (16 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> No more cafe stops on rides. I've added flapjack etc to the shopping list


quite don't tell everyone or the panic will set in


----------



## Johnno260 (16 Mar 2020)

some don't like it but if I see armed forces deployed to control "idiots" then I will be re-assured, I loved seeing them around during London 2012


----------



## delb0y (16 Mar 2020)

So we can cycle? Skimming one of the other threads, I got the impression we couldn't / shouldn't. It's almost as if no-one quite knows what the situation is...


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> This is my issue, they're asking people to use common sense, from what I have seen in the stores there is a distinct lack of this.



The other problem is people are panicked and think if they catch it they are doomed. True for specific subsets but for rest of us we will fall ill, spend time in bed, recover. It’s evident rational thought is missing for many.

Lets also be clear, those not in vulnerable groups, we need to fall ill. That’s the government strategy. Fall ill within a minimal circle. Don’t spread it far and wide. Recover. Do it in the 12 week period that vulnerable members are isolated. So in 12 weeks the quarantine can be removed as the rest of us are now immune. Much reduced risk to vulnerable members and the NHS can cope with the serious cases.

If this doesn’t happen the isolation of vulnerable from fit and healthy will have been for nowt. We just delay the outbreak and deaths 12 weeks.

My issue is they have suspended testing outside serious hospital cases. So we will never know how many have had it and are now immune.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Mar 2020)

delb0y said:


> So we can cycle? Skimming one of the other threads, I got the impression we couldn't / shouldn't. It's almost as if no-one quite knows what the situation is...



Yes you can go out for exercise but not in large groups aka group rides. So go out on your own or in ones and twos but no more. I may cycle with my wife tomorrow.


----------



## fossyant (16 Mar 2020)

delb0y said:


> So we can cycle? Skimming one of the other threads, I got the impression we couldn't / shouldn't. It's almost as if no-one quite knows what the situation is...



So far yes, no ban on movement. Only Spain stopped this, Italy still allowed.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (16 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Yes you can go out for exercise but not in large groups aka group rides. So go out on your own or in ones and twos but no more. I may cycle with my wife tomorrow.


Madison riding will be frowned upon.


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## SkipdiverJohn (16 Mar 2020)

The amount of snowflakery nonsense is unbelievable. Trying to prevent people catching the virus is as futile as trying to prevent people catching the common cold. If it's everywhere out there, sooner or later you will cop a dose.
It makes a lot of sense for those who are susceptible to infections to stay out of the way as much as possible, whilst everyone else, who it will not make seriously ill, just goes about their normal business earning their wages and spending their money to keep the economy ticking over.
Drastic lockdowns to try and inhibit social and business interactions will be economically disastrous, and a lot of those who will be worst hit are minimum wage staff in retail and hospitality on zero hours or low hours contracts who can simply be told not to come in as they aren't needed - without the employer having to pay them. The government simply can't afford to bankroll everybody for months to do nothing economically productive and twiddle their thumbs. To run public services you need tax money to keep coming in and you need staff to turn up for work. The majority of people, who are of working age, need to carry on going to work, and everyone who is not high risk needs to carry on with their normal routine. Shutting the entire country down for weeks or months is simply not realistic, and people will soon start to rebel against such measures if attempted for a sustained period.


----------



## marinyork (16 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Aye I read all that, but what does this part actually *mean*?



Btw don't know if this helps.

It isn't great, but it is actually more detail

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults


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## Rocky (16 Mar 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The amount of snowflakery nonsense is unbelievable. Trying to prevent people catching the virus is as futile as trying to prevent people catching the common cold. If it's everywhere out there, sooner or later you will cop a dose.
> It makes a lot of sense for those who are susceptible to infections to stay out of the way as much as possible, whilst everyone else, who it will not make seriously ill, just goes about their normal business earning their wages and spending their money to keep the economy ticking over.
> Drastic lockdowns to try and inhibit social and business interactions will be economically disastrous, and a lot of those who will be worst hit are minimum wage staff in retail and hospitality on zero hours or low hours contracts who can simply be told not to come in as they aren't needed - without the employer having to pay them. The government simply can't afford to bankroll everybody for months to do nothing economically productive and twiddle their thumbs. To run public services you need tax money to keep coming in and you need staff to turn up for work. The majority of people, who are of working age, need to carry on going to work, and everyone who is not high risk needs to carry on with their normal routine. Shutting the entire country down for weeks or months is simply not realistic, and people will soon start to rebel against such measures if attempted for a sustained period.


I always think that those accusing others of being snowflakes are the biggest snowflakes of all.........why not stop criticising and go and help an elderly neighbour or someone who is vulnerable?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (16 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Btw don't know if this helps.
> 
> It isn't great, but it is actually more detail
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults


It doesn't really help me. I'm in an at risk group but I also have to care for my mother (shopping, principally). I"m not sure how I can isolate myself and keep on doing the shopping for her.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Madison riding will be frowned upon.



Tour De France there will be no peloton or drafting. They will have to ride a minute apart and do all the work themselves. Average speeds will drop 30%...


----------



## DaveReading (16 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The other problem is people are panicked and think if they catch it they are doomed. True for specific subsets but for rest of us we will fall ill, spend time in bed, recover. It’s evident rational thought is missing for many.



According to some reports, it's not quite that straightforward. Some will survive the virus, but still be left with long-term damage to lungs or other organs.


----------



## Mike_P (16 Mar 2020)

Seems yesterdays comments from retailers fell on deaf ears, local Asda devestated in large sections including frozen, wonder how many freezers have been sold recently.


----------



## Poacher (16 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Seems yesterdays comments from retailers fell on deaf ears, local Asda devestated in large sections including frozen, wonder how many freezers have been sold recently.


After seeing other comments about freezer sales, out of idle curiosity I looked on the John Lewis website. Of 80 models of freezer listed, 53 were out of stock.


----------



## delb0y (16 Mar 2020)

I keep thinking that any day now the panic-buyers will have filled their boots and then the rest of us can carry on as normal. But it doesn't seem to be happening yet.


----------



## nickyboy (16 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> So far yes, no ban on movement. Only Spain stopped this, Italy still allowed.


It's same in Italy and Spain. No cycling. I presume you can cycle to buy your food or go to work. But that's it. I have a friend in Sicily, she is running to the shops for food as her exercise

For those in UK you need to stop the big group rides and swerve the café stop


----------



## mjr (16 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> Can I strongly advise to take a photo and email or link it via your EMIS or SystmOne on line app to prevent any risk to you or others by physically attending.


I'm not allowed to put links on SystmOne and I don't have my doctor's email. I wonder if the previous poster does.


----------



## Blue Hills (16 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> So far yes, no ban on movement. Only Spain stopped this, Italy still allowed.


My understanding was that it isn't allowed in italy - i posted a story about a chap nabbed by police in samassi sardinia a few days ago.


----------



## tom73 (16 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I always think that those accusing others of being snowflakes are the biggest snowflakes of all.........why not stop criticising and go and help an elderly neighbour or someone who is vulnerable?


In deed it don't take much but can mean the world some. I've just check on one of mine known her for years grow up with her kids. Just called round to see how was and if she needed anything. Had a good idea she was well prepared. Turns out she is so quick call ended up being 3 hours. Turned out she's has a bit of bad time the last few months top it all off tomorrow would have been her 47th wedding anniversary. I just let her chat away she's not many folk to talk things over with , well not ones she feels comfortable with.


----------



## mjr (16 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Yes I would have preferred to see them closed down. I guess it's suck it and see. Pubs and restaurants will close naturally as they won't have enough customers to justify opening. If people are idiots and places are still rammed then they will be closed down legally I guess, like they were in Ireland


If government closes them, they would have more of a case from compensation. Much cheaper to bankrupt them. The big chains will probably survive, but what about small indies?


----------



## Blue Hills (16 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The other problem is people are panicked and think if they catch it they are doomed. True for specific subsets but for rest of us we will fall ill, spend time in bed, recover. It’s evident rational thought is missing for many.
> 
> Lets also be clear, those not in vulnerable groups, we need to fall ill. That’s the government strategy. Fall ill within a minimal circle. Don’t spread it far and wide. Recover. Do it in the 12 week period that vulnerable members are isolated. So in 12 weeks the quarantine can be removed as the rest of us are now immune. Much reduced risk to vulnerable members and the NHS can cope with the serious cases.
> 
> ...


Been thinking this for a couple of weeks.
Visited mum recently.
Hope to see again.
May need to return to help her with stuff.
So does seem to me that it would be best if i got it and dealt with it.
Anyone see anything wrong with this logic??
Agree with you about testing.
Uk approach on testing appears to make little sense on several levels.
Only reason i can see for it is that boris and his bunch have so crippled the nhs that it isn't capable of doing anything else.


----------



## mjr (16 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Iceland are apparently opening early for OAPs to shop without having to fight with younger people for access to restocked shelves. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51906744
> 
> I'd hope that this spreads around other stores too.


I don't. Ageist pigs. What about the rest of us who don't want to be shopping amid panic buyers, scrums and punch ups?


----------



## mjr (16 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> So does seem to me that it would be best if i got it and dealt with it.
> Anyone see anything wrong with this logic??


Nobody seems quite sure how likely it is to catch it a second time?


----------



## mjr (16 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Seems yesterdays comments from retailers fell on deaf ears, local Asda devestated in large sections including frozen, wonder how many freezers have been sold recently.


Enough that the local showroom is out of stock of all models, from what I was told today by the chap fixing my oven.


----------



## Blue Hills (16 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Nobody seems quite sure how likely it is to catch it a second time?


I had the idea that it was unlikely for quite some time.
It is a key question which, along with several others, our leaders don't seem to be addressing as clearly as they should.
If they don't know, just tell us.
We are adults.


----------



## marinyork (16 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Nobody seems quite sure how likely it is to catch it a second time?



Not found a transcript, but this was dealt with a in the press conference by Vallance and Witty. Be interesting to read it.

Basically they thought the media line was cobblers. You can catch something a second time, even with Herd immunity, but it's rare.

Witty emphasized as said in previous diagrams and advice used back going as far as January that immunity wasn't permanent, but that it might be for months say, that may or may not cover the second surge in the winter as modelled (and seen in previous pandemics/flu seasons). Or it might last longer if you're lucky. Something along those lines. Witty/Vallance said there was evidence - they had evidence getting it protects someone.


----------



## Blue Hills (16 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Not found a transcript, but this was dealt with a in the press conference by Vallance and Witty. Be interesting to read it.
> 
> Basically they thought the media line was cobblers. You can catch something a second time, even with Herd immunity, but it's rare.
> 
> Witty emphasized as said in previous diagrams and advice used back going as far as January that immunity wasn't permanent, but that it might be for months say, that may or may not cover the second surge in the winter as modelled (and seen in previous pandemics/flu seasons). Or it might last longer if you're lucky. Something along those lines. Witty/Vallance said there was evidence - they had evidence getting it protects someone.


Thanks. That tallies with the idea i had.
So on balance it seems a good idea for folk who are confident of their health to get it and isolate at the first signs of anything.


----------



## Pale Rider (16 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> I'm not allowed to put links on SystmOne and I don't have my doctor's email. I wonder if the previous poster does.



Shouldn't be insurmountable - the previous doctor communicated with me by email.

I've been considering @Buck's advice, and I now think I should at least make an attempt to follow it.


----------



## marinyork (16 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Thanks. That tallies with the idea i had.
> So on balance it seems a good idea for folk who are confident of their health to get it and isolate at the first signs of anything.



In previous advice, this is one of the issues that is modelled to reduce the peak, I think actually may have even been one of the most effective measures. It's going to happen anyway. Without a quicker/more widely applied test (see later), there are some issues around that, especially with health workers. 

Not to be controversially getting everyone to be nice to everyone, but actually there is pretty much agreement across the board. The differences are cultural ones or how governments are run. The UK's advice doesn't really conflict with anything people have said about singapore or hong kong. Where the difference lies is that as in Italy, the social distancing and lockdown was widely ignored. Very widely ignored. So widely ignored in fact that it's quite interesting that peeps keep on posting about you're allowed to go out for a bike ride. I wonder why that is! This is probably not a point missed by our leaders, but is one missed multiple times by people on this thread who keep on yelling social distancing to everything and that it'll somehow magically work or that people pay attention. No one out there pays any attention to what's written here and not really too much to what Boris or anyone else says. 

The disagreement is the 1 peak vs 2 or multiple peaks. For some reason and some deus ex machina some people here think after 1 peak that's it. Vallance/Witty (and actually if you watch some Italian tv it even says this on there occasionally) think they'll be 2 peaks. It's just Italy is so up shoot creek without a paddle that one's not being discussed quite so much now. 

As said previously, in essence all governments have a contain method. The other disagreement with UK policy is what happens after the first phase. There are three technological solutions out there which a guy on here got incredibly argy bargy about. Chill. It isn't my view and I don't make governments' policy. Some governments do seem to be holding out on this as an insurance policy, which was why I said it. Or just hoping for the best. 

Some countries have buggered up/given up on the testing though .


----------



## Blue Hills (16 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> In previous advice, this is one of the issues that is modelled to reduce the peak, I think actually may have even been one of the most effective measures. It's going to happen anyway. Without a quicker/more widely applied test (see later), there are some issues around that, especially with health workers.
> 
> Not to be controversially getting everyone to be nice to everyone, but actually there is pretty much agreement across the board. The differences are cultural ones or how governments are run. The UK's advice doesn't really conflict with anything people have said about singapore or hong kong. Where the difference lies is that as in Italy, the social distancing and lockdown was widely ignored. Very widely ignored. So widely ignored in fact that it's quite interesting that peeps keep on posting about you're allowed to go out for a bike ride. I wonder why that is! This is probably not a point missed by our leaders, but is one missed multiple times by people on this thread who keep on yelling social distancing to everything and that it'll somehow magically work or that people pay attention. No one out there pays any attention to what's written here and not really too much to what Boris or anyone else says.
> 
> ...


Can you be a bit clearer?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (16 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> I don't. Ageist pigs.



You’re joking, right?


----------



## Julia9054 (16 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It doesn't really help me. I'm in an at risk group but I also have to care for my mother (shopping, principally). I"m not sure how I can isolate myself and keep on doing the shopping for her.


I am in the "eligible for a flu jab" group. Should I be going to work or not?


----------



## marinyork (16 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Can you be a bit clearer?



Self isolating is meant to reduce. 

Social distancing and getting the poplace to do stuff may have problems as we've seen in Italy (and some may argue other countries) is a very practical issue at the heart of what most of the arguments are really about.

Focus in the world and this forum is there is 1 peak and that's it. The Chief Scientific Advisor has said very often that they think the coronavirus will be around for some time, that they'll likely be a 2nd peak and worry about that hitting smack bang in winter alongside other flu. This slight subtlety is why the UK's policy seems quite airy fairy. 

There are very large testing disparities. The WHO got very annoyed about this. The UK is concentrating on hospital cases and health workers. In the US the testing going on is at a very low level. In the US it appears Washington state is very bad. Some virologists think it's just they've done more testing and coronavirus may sadly be running wildly out of control in a lot of places . If this is the case deaths might start stacking up out of 'nowhere' in US states in the next couple of weeks.


----------



## marinyork (16 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> I had the idea that it was unlikely for quite some time.
> It is a key question which, along with several others, our leaders don't seem to be addressing as clearly as they should.
> If they don't know, just tell us.
> We are adults.



London appears to have it much worse . As well as Hampshire, Hertfordshire and Glasgow (those 3 weren't mentioned).

I think it's harsh on the immunity side. I think they have tried to explain it and the 1 peakers seem to have got most of the media attention.

The bit that I think they should explain clearer and I think they are holding back on is the evidence on children. There does seem to be some evidence about children they aren't telling us. Yes, there are other obvious reasons why they don't want to close schools, but I wonder what's actually in it with children catching/passing it on.


----------



## DCLane (16 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I am in the "eligible for a flu jab" group. Should I be going to work or not?



Same, also with asthma. I'm a wee bit concerned here. See you all in June?


----------



## randynewmanscat (16 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It doesn't really help me. I'm in an at risk group but I also have to care for my mother (shopping, principally). I"m not sure how I can isolate myself and keep on doing the shopping for her.


Not much you can do, get a particulate mask and safety specs and keep your distance. I would not give a monkeys to my appearance to minimise risk


deptfordmarmoset said:


> Madison riding will be frowned upon.


No! 1/2 wheeling too?


----------



## mjr (16 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> You’re joking, right?


Mostly. But I'm sure some 70somethings could beat this fortysomething to the shelves. Maybe I'll take my stick.


----------



## randynewmanscat (17 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Tour De France there will be no peloton or drafting. They will have to ride a minute apart and do all the work themselves. Average speeds will drop 30%...


Tour de France 2021?


----------



## mjr (17 Mar 2020)

Anyone else notice that "shielding" seems to be the new name for "isolating" (itself the new name for "quarantine") because they don't want to admit this will isolate the vulnerable?


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

Meanwhile in other news the president of the italian region of sardinia and the mayor of its capital cagliari have apparently called on the help of saint efisio.
https://www.sardiniapost.it/politic...antefisio-invochiamo-il-nostro-amato-martire/
I do hope he is self isolating, not listening, doesn"t get involved.
One of italy's more useless saints, which is saying something, in my view.
Owes his sainthood to supposedly saving cagliari from a plague.
A plague in which as much as half of the population actually perished.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (17 Mar 2020)

The chart below is better than a thousand words:







The chart gives us an idea who is going to be where in X days without a change in behaviour. Until this afternoon, it shows we have been sleepwalking into disaster, 5 days behind Spain, which in turn is no more than 10 days behind Italy.

An update of the number infected chart is below:





The UK number might seem to be improving during the last couple of days, but it isn't real - the government suddenly decided late last week to limit testing to hospital patients. This was queried today, but don't think the CMO actually answered the question.

FT Source.


----------



## Shut Up Legs (17 Mar 2020)

Has anyone noticed in the UK an increase in car traffic? I think I've noticed it here in Melbourne. A lot of people who'd normally prefer public transport are now driving, so when 1 bus/tram/train carriage empties, another 50 cars are on the road.


----------



## Lozz360 (17 Mar 2020)

Shut Up Legs said:


> Has anyone noticed in the UK an increase in car traffic? I think I've noticed it here in Melbourne. A lot of people who'd normally prefer public transport are now driving, so when 1 bus/tram/train carriage empties, another 50 cars are on the road.


If anything there seems to be less car traffic where I am. Whether this is because people are working from home where they can. On the other hand, you would expect people to avoid public transport at the moment.


----------



## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I am in the "eligible for a flu jab" group. Should I be going to work or not?



https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults


----------



## PaulSB (17 Mar 2020)

I haven't read the whole of this thread by any means but have popped in from time to time. I thought this might be interesting for people.

My wife is a very experienced retired medical professional of 40+ years. Two days before New Year she became very ill, more than I have seen in a 42 year partnership, with all the Covid-19 symptoms in the now expected order. Our immediate neighbours on either side had the same symptoms at the same time and were equally ill. Independently our neighbours have reached the same conclusion.

We had a big trip planned for late January and I distanced myself at home. Slept in the spare room for nearly three weeks as Mrs P had very disturbed sleep. My actions were what we would now call self-isolating - common sense in fact.

Mrs P is not prone to exaggeration but is convinced she had Corona virus. Her view is no one can be sure of the origin, when, if China is the source, it "escaped" and Wuhan is simply the first identified occurrence.

I'm offering no medical basis for this just my wife's opinion. I do know she was extremely ill to an extent I haven't seen in 42 years.


----------



## Julia9054 (17 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults


It says „Avoid non-essential use of public transport, varying your travel times to avoid rush hour, when possible. Work from home where possible“
It is not possible for me to work from home unless my school shuts yet it says people in vulnerable groups should be following stringent social distancing.


----------



## vickster (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> It says „Avoid non-essential use of public transport, varying your travel times to avoid rush hour, when possible“
> It is not possible for me to work from home unless my school shuts yet it says people in vulnerable groups should be following stringent social distancing.


Can you talk to your headteacher about your condition and take a leave of absence?


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## Julia9054 (17 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Can you talk to your headteacher about your condition and take a leave of absence?


I don’t want to over react or to leave colleagues in the lurch. I can’t be the only staff member with asthma and I still can’t really work out how vulnerable I actually am. I need 2 lots of daily preventer inhalers but my well controlled asthma does not limit my activities in any way.


----------



## vickster (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I don’t want to over react or to leave colleagues in the lurch. I can’t be the only staff member with asthma and I still can’t really work out how vulnerable I actually am. I need 2 lots of daily preventer inhalers but my well controlled asthma does not limit my activities in any way.


Can you phone your gp for advice?


----------



## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> It says „Avoid non-essential use of public transport, varying your travel times to avoid rush hour, when possible. Work from home where possible“
> It is not possible for me to work from home unless my school shuts yet it says people in vulnerable groups should be following stringent social distancing.



Yes your right i'd say you need to talk to school and together agree what to do. If they are not keen then it's your call for what it's worth i'd not risk it. We already had 8 staff off yesterday and that was when the advice was not as wide as now. I'm going in today but I'm not in at risk group i'm more concerned about the SLT's totally lack of care we have not up the game at all. Regarding infection control other than the odd bottle of hand gel. Though the head has just spent over 6K on temporary carpet for the sports hall.


----------



## DCLane (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I don’t want to over react or to leave colleagues in the lurch. I can’t be the only staff member with asthma and I still can’t really work out how vulnerable I actually am. I need 2 lots of daily preventer inhalers but my well controlled asthma does not limit my activities in any way.





vickster said:


> Can you phone your gp for advice?



My guess is that you're in the 1.2 million that'll get phoned next week with specific advice, like myself. There's millions on the 2-preventer-a-day inhalers.


----------



## Julia9054 (17 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes your right i'd say you need to talk to school and together agree what to do. If they are not keen then it's your call for what it's worth i'd not risk it. We already had 8 staff off yesterday and that was when the advice was not as wide as now. I'm going in today but I'm not in at risk group i'm more concerned about the SLT's totally lack of care we have not up the game at all. Regarding infection control other than the odd bottle of hand gel. Though the head has just spent over 6K on temporary carpet for the sports hall.


Our school sent email out yesterday evening. We are closed for years 8, 9 and 12 due to staffing levels.


----------



## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I don’t want to over react or to leave colleagues in the lurch. I can’t be the only staff member with asthma and I still can’t really work out how vulnerable I actually am. I need 2 lots of daily preventer inhalers but my well controlled asthma does not limit my activities in any way.


Based on that and Mrs 73's understanding your at higher risk than joe bloggs but not as at risk of someone who's old and has COPD.


----------



## Johnno260 (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I don’t want to over react or to leave colleagues in the lurch. I can’t be the only staff member with asthma and I still can’t really work out how vulnerable I actually am. I need 2 lots of daily preventer inhalers but my well controlled asthma does not limit my activities in any way.



I would say distance yourself until you have taken advice, just to be cautious, the government did say NHS would contact those deemed vulnerable.

Try calling the GP as it’s a totally reasonable question.
Try the NHS website as well, but only take advice from the NHS website not some hokey witchdoctors opinion.


----------



## vickster (17 Mar 2020)

This might provide some advice (not read)
https://www.asthma.org.uk/advice/triggers/coronavirus-covid-19/

There’ll be similar I expect from asthma patient groups around the world (USA, Australia etc)


----------



## Julia9054 (17 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> This might provide some advice (not read)
> https://www.asthma.org.uk/advice/triggers/coronavirus-covid-19/
> 
> There’ll be similar I expect from asthma patient groups around the world (USA, Australia etc)


Thank you.
It says make sure you are up to date with your asthma management and follow the same social distancing rules as the rest of the population until advice changes.


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Our school sent email out yesterday evening. We are closed for years 8, 9 and 12 due to staffing levels.


Asthma is not a risk factor for a poor outcome with COVID19 as long as your asthma is well controlled. Asthma UK has a good link and good advice. The bottom line is that the majority of problems with COVID19 come from the interstitial pneumonia and that is a different allergic reaction of the lungs. Doctors currently don’t think having asthma makes you more likely to have it.

(I’m an asthmatic too - my wife is a doctor)


----------



## Julia9054 (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m an asthmatic too


I’m an asthmatic . . . and a hypochondriac!


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I’m an asthmatic . . . and a hypochondriac!


It’s absolutely 100% normal to be concerned. There’d be something wrong if we weren’t!!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (17 Mar 2020)

Step-son saw someone filling jerry cans of petrol at a filling station this morning. A one-off? I certainly topped off my tank yesterday.


----------



## nickyboy (17 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Step-son saw someone filling jerry cans of petrol at a filling station this morning. A one-off? I certainly topped off my tank yesterday.


I'd have thought the opposite was true. Petrol companies will have to figure out what to do with all the unsold product in their supply chain as people travel less

It's started...Tom Tom real time congestion stats shows Manchester rush hour much quieter than normal


----------



## Johnno260 (17 Mar 2020)

Are you able to ask for some more inhaler refills now? not in a panic buy way, just if the health care systems being stretched you know you're covered, same for diabetics are you able to get a little bit more insulin and needles to tide you over? also in both cases means less movement for vulnerable groups during the virus peak.


----------



## Johnno260 (17 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Step-son saw someone filling jerry cans of petrol at a filling station this morning. A one-off? I certainly topped off my tank yesterday.



Petrol I wont stock up on, my boiler oil was less than a 1/4 and thanks for Putin and the Saudi I got a good price on getting the tank filled.


----------



## lazybloke (17 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Step-son saw someone filling jerry cans of petrol at a filling station this morning. A one-off? I certainly topped off my tank yesterday.


I wondered the same at the weekend when I was at a very crowded Tesco filling station. Panic buying isn't particularly logical, a rumour can self-perpetuate. However, as more at-risk people self-isolate, and other restrictions come into play (either voluntary or mandatory), I'd expect demand for fuel to reduce.


----------



## Twilkes (17 Mar 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I haven't read the whole of this thread by any means but have popped in from time to time. I thought this might be interesting for people.
> 
> My wife is a very experienced retired medical professional of 40+ years. Two days before New Year she became very ill, more than I have seen in a 42 year partnership, with all the Covid-19 symptoms in the now expected order. Our immediate neighbours on either side had the same symptoms at the same time and were equally ill. Independently our neighbours have reached the same conclusion.
> 
> ...



If that was the case there would have been a spike in hospitalisations and deaths, which there wasn't, and far more cases detected when they started testing, so consensus is that whatever was around at Christmas wasn't what we have now.


----------



## fossyant (17 Mar 2020)

MIL is insisting on going to the GP and pharmacy today - farking madness




nickyboy said:


> I'd have thought the opposite was true. Petrol companies will have to figure out what to do with all the unsold product in their supply chain as people travel less
> 
> It's started...Tom Tom real time congestion stats shows Manchester rush hour much quieter than normal



30 minutes into work !!


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## fossyant (17 Mar 2020)

The Christmas bug was nasty, but not as bad. This progresses to pneumonia fast.


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## mjr (17 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults


A vague list of examples that this "includes" is rather annoying at this point.


----------



## Levo-Lon (17 Mar 2020)

I can honestly say I'm so glad I don't have my paving business anymore..
This would destroy it.
I really do feel for the small businesses.
They'll do well to survive this year.

As will a lot of larger ones.


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## Dave7 (17 Mar 2020)

delb0y said:


> I keep thinking that any day now the panic-buyers will have filled their boots and then the rest of us can carry on as normal. But it doesn't seem to be happening yet.


That was my thought. Surely they can only store so much pasta and bog roll.


----------



## Mugshot (17 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> I can honestly say I'm so glad I don't have my paving business anymore..
> This would destroy it.
> I really do feel for the small businesses.
> They'll do well to survive this year.
> ...


Not related but Carphone Warehouse is shutting its standalone shops. 2900 people out of work is devastating for them at any time, but while this is going on must be unbearable.


View: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1239814079226707969?s=20


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## mjr (17 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> MIL is insisting on going to the GP and pharmacy today - farking madness


Why so? I'll be going to the pharmacy tomorrow. I have slowly built two weeks extra stock of my meds, which was intended to cover trips away but it doesn't look like that will happen now!


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## Johnno260 (17 Mar 2020)

Like I said anyone who requires regular meds should see if the GP can prescribe some safety stock, my wife has done so with her anti epileptics.


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## delb0y (17 Mar 2020)

Just come back from Tesco. Thought an early(ish) visit might see me beat the panic-buyers. Happy to report that half the shelves are full. Alas, the half that are already empty (assuming they were restocked overnight):

Hand-soap
Headache Tablets (sorry I can't spell paracetamol) 
Baked Beans
Tins of Tomatoes
Rice
Pasta
Fresh chicken
Toilet Roll
Kitchen Roll

I will have to try earlier tomorrow...

Did buy a Hello magazine for the missus, some dog-food for the dog, and a bag of bagels for us all.


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I haven't read the whole of this thread by any means but have popped in from time to time. I thought this might be interesting for people.
> 
> My wife is a very experienced retired medical professional of 40+ years. Two days before New Year she became very ill, more than I have seen in a 42 year partnership, with all the Covid-19 symptoms in the now expected order. Our immediate neighbours on either side had the same symptoms at the same time and were equally ill. Independently our neighbours have reached the same conclusion.
> 
> ...


Interesting.
End of last year i had a bad dry cough which lasted rather a long time so have been wondering. Slight fever fatigue and aches at the beginning but i fought that off naturally after a few days. Cough lasted a lot longer. Was also aware of a breathing issue - only felt that when climbing on the bike but it was far far more noticeable than i would expect as am in tune with my body.
Wouldn't say the overall symptoms were extreme in my case.
Relates to the debate over testing. Fair to assume that if you have had it a test would show this?
If you have i assume there is no great need to isolate.
Seems to me many folk who could do something useful for themselves, their employer/business and society are isolating for no reason.


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

delb0y said:


> Just come back from Tesco. Thought an early(ish) visit might see me beat the panic-buyers. Happy to report that half the shelves are full. Alas, the half that are already empty (assuming they were restocked overnight):
> 
> Hand-soap
> Headache Tablets (sorry I can't spell paracetamol)
> ...


Been away so not shopped for three weeks. My local lidl last night out of all useful stuff. No shortage of green olives, anchovies or their fine vintage cider.


----------



## vickster (17 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> *Seems to me many folk who could do something useful for themselves*, their employer/business and society are isolating for no reason.


My business is isolating based on the advice given yesterday by the government

Not sure what you mean by the bit in bold?


----------



## fossyant (17 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Why so? I'll be going to the pharmacy tomorrow. I have slowly built two weeks extra stock of my meds, which was intended to cover trips away but it doesn't look like that will happen now!



It's a routine blood test which can be done in the Nursing home, but they can't alway's find a blood vessel. She has advanced heart failure, AF, diabetic, knackered lungs, mid 80's and she's insisting on going out. Everything is there for her in the Nursing home . A simple 'cold' is enough to kill her as her heart can't remove fluids from her lungs as it is. She very nearly died 12 months ago with mild chest infection. All her meds are delivered to the Nursing home. She really doesn't need to be going out.

This is why we are 'shaking our heads'.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (17 Mar 2020)

Not impressed by government so far. What is needed is decisiveness, clarity and leadership. We're not getting it. 

We shouldn't be "guided" by the science, we should be "informed" by it. All the facts and data aren't in, there is no scientific consensus so they cannot give clarity. It therefore falls upon the politicians to make decisions and to lead. Instead we're getting dithering, confusion and panic.

Not impressed at all.


----------



## randynewmanscat (17 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> That was my thought. Surely they can only store so much pasta and bog roll.


It reminds me of the disgrace that Christmas has become. They buy a mountain of food and a good proportion of it enters the waste bin and not the mouth. The bog roll part of it has taken a new twist with regard to individuals revisionism, apparently they all knew that things would become serious and stocked up accordingly as they knew the country would grind to a halt. No they didn't, they just displayed the irrational decision making that comes with "I saw them buying loads of stuff so I had better buy loads too".


----------



## mjr (17 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> It's a routine blood test which can be done in the Nursing home, [...]


Liked for the missing info being supplied, not the situation.


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> My business is isolating based on the advice given yesterday by the government
> 
> Not sure what you mean by the bit in bold?


I meant that if you have had it (i may not have had) and know it, couldn't you circulate with no risk to yourself or others?
The WHO has I think criticised the uk approach to testing.


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

Apologies if posted and can't copy the key bit.
BBC News - Coronavirus: UK changes course amid death toll fears
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51915302
If you read down that it stresses that there is no clear exit strategy from where we are. And stresses that the chinese approach seems to have created a situation where the vast majority of folk still have no resistance so the damn virus could just be "waiting" to let rip.
I stress that i am not criticising uk policy nor have any other ideas let alone solutions (i am a medical ignoramus) just stressing the appalling quandary.


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The Prof has been working all weekend on guidance and protocols for telephone and video GP consultations for NHSE and the Royal College of GPs. It sounds like your GP is ahead of the curve with this. The Prof suggests you take a photo of the bandage box and see if you can email or upload it to the practice’s EMIS patient access system. Do let us know how the consultation goes!!



The telephone consultation worked in that it dealt successfully with the two minor things I was inquiring about.

In that limited respect it was no different to me visiting the surgery.

However, it denied the doctor the chance to make a general assessment of me, which I'm sure the better GPs do simply by looking and listening.

The patient's presentation, I would suggest, is almost as important as the patient's inquiry.

Nothing lost in this instance, but it could be if telephone consultations become routine.

The email pic of the bandage box idea proved simple enough to adopt.

Thanks to the Prof for the suggestion, because I wouldn't have thought of it.

I will finish with one of my occasional attempts to publish the least interesting picture on the internet:


----------



## marinyork (17 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Relates to the debate over testing. Fair to assume that if you have had it a test would show this?
> If you have i assume there is no great need to isolate.
> Seems to me many folk who could do something useful for themselves, their employer/business and society are isolating for no reason.



A test showing you have had it doesn't exist. The chief medical officer yesterday said it would fantastic if it did as that's enormously useful.

Some of the stuff reported yesterday elsewhere suggests progress has been made on a self test kit and this will be rolled out in June. Others are sceptical.


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The telephone consultation worked in that it dealt successfully with the two minor things I was inquiring about.
> 
> In that limited respect it was no different to me visiting the surgery.
> 
> ...


I'm glad all went well.....would you mind me passing on those comments about the consultation to the Prof? They are very insightful.


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

Thanks for reply above @marinyork


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'm glad all went well.....would you mind me passing on those comments about the consultation to the Prof? They are very insightful.



No, please do.

I'm bound to like being called 'insightful', but I'm also bound to give the Prof credit for her expertise.

In other words, she will already be aware of the points I raised.


----------



## steve292 (17 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> London appears to have it much worse . As well as Hampshire, Hertfordshire and Glasgow (those 3 weren't mentioned).
> 
> I think it's harsh on the immunity side. I think they have tried to explain it and the 1 peakers seem to have got most of the media attention.
> 
> The bit that I think they should explain clearer and I think they are holding back on is the evidence on children. There does seem to be some evidence about children they aren't telling us. Yes, there are other obvious reasons why they don't want to close schools, but I wonder what's actually in it with children catching/passing it on.


I woudl theorise that you can control the rate of infection to targeted areas via opening or closing schools, and using the kids as a vector. You will never hear that from a politician as it would be a political sucide note.


----------



## PaulSB (17 Mar 2020)

Twilkes said:


> If that was the case there would have been a spike in hospitalisations and deaths, which there wasn't, and far more cases detected when they started testing, so consensus is that whatever was around at Christmas wasn't what we have now.


You may be correct. I can only respond my wife is a highly experienced, retired medical professional of 40+ years. She was more ill than I have seen in 42 years.

Initially I felt she was wrong but after a lot of conversation I think she is correct. There was never a danger of the three people infecting others, they were too ill to go anywhere.


----------



## PaulSB (17 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> The Christmas bug was nasty, but not as bad. This progresses to pneumonia fast.


My next door neighbour contracted pneumonia as a result of the illness I described.


----------



## Johnno260 (17 Mar 2020)

Just be careful guys, I think levels of douchbaggyery are on the increase, I had issue with some pleb almost hitting my car fine shout and scream I don't care I will just smile and wave, but don't spit at me, that's crossing a red line.


----------



## cookiemonster (17 Mar 2020)

Hong Kong putting everyone who's been abroad into 14 days quarantine. In 2 weeks, we've had 57 cases, 50 imported. The big risk we have is the virus coming back and starting a second wave just as we get on top of this after 7 weeks.


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## GM (17 Mar 2020)

I've had my early morning call from my GP, far easier than going to the surgery for your appointment for minor issues. I wish they would do more, all sorted in 3 minutes.


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> but don't spit at me, that's crossing a red line.



Very true.

A lady Crown Prosecutor was spat at by a defendant as she opened a case at magistrates' court.

The defendant had worked out the air gap between the two glass panels of the secure dock was sufficient for him to get a well aimed gob through.

The prosecutor commented afterwards she would rather be punched than spat on.

Happily, it was one of rare those occasions where an appropriate sentence was passed.

The defendant got a short stretch inside for gobbing on her, which he wouldn't have got had he gobbed on me or you.


----------



## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

If only he's done that in the custody suite he'd sure know about


----------



## snorri (17 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I only learned of this the other day but you can access NHS via https://111.nhs.uk/
> (Edit: Sorry, beaten by several others)


I suspect this alternative access was promoted by NHS England and although it may work in Scotland (I don't want to test it at this busy time) it has not been promoted widely in Scotland. It's not mentioned as an option on my local health centre website.


----------



## Mugshot (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Not related but Carphone Warehouse is shutting its standalone shops. 2900 people out of work is devastating for them at any time, but while this is going on must be unbearable.
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1239814079226707969?s=20



And now Laura Ashley, that's another 2700 jobs:

Laura Ashley goes into administration amid coronavirus outbreak putting 2,700 jobs at risk

(Independent link)


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> I suspect this alternative access was promoted by NHS England and although it may work in Scotland (I don't want to test it at this busy time) it has not been promoted widely in Scotland. It's not mentioned as an option on my local health centre website.


I'd noticed from the posts on here that there were at least 2 Scots who didn't seem to know of the site, so your explanation may well be correct. I don't think there'll be a great difference between NHS Scotland and NHS England so I wouldn't worry about using it.


----------



## Spartak (17 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Been away so not shopped for three weeks. My local lidl last night out of all useful stuff. No shortage of green olives, anchovies or their fine vintage cider.


 
How long do you think you'll last on that diet... 🤔


----------



## Levo-Lon (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Not related but Carphone Warehouse is shutting its standalone shops. 2900 people out of work is devastating for them at any time, but while this is going on must be unbearable.
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1239814079226707969?s=20





Thin end of the wedge.
Some Schools closing in Peterborough at 1pm today for 2 weeks.
Talk about short notice,
Most of our care staff have kids at school age!!


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

GM said:


> I've had my early morning call from my GP, far easier than going to the surgery for your appointment for minor issues. I wish they would do more, all sorted in 3 minutes.



Similar experience to me, but as you know I have reservations about the long term adoption of telephone consultation.

I'm reluctant to suggest more rules and procedure, but I wonder if a visit could be insisted upon for every third consultation.

In other words, the surgery could keep a record of how you make your consultations, and after two telephone ones in a row they would ask you to come in for the third.


----------



## Buck (17 Mar 2020)

Schools closing will have a massive Impact especially for those younger children. 

Do parents have to have time off? If grandparents are older are they able to look after the grandchildren I’d they themselves are in at risk groups?


----------



## cookiemonster (17 Mar 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/educati...-would-reduce-coronavirus-transmission-expert


----------



## GM (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Similar experience to me, but as you know I have reservations about the long term adoption of telephone consultation.
> 
> I'm reluctant to suggest more rules and procedure, but I wonder if a visit could be insisted upon for every third consultation.
> 
> In other words, the surgery could keep a record of how you make your consultations, and after two telephone ones in a row they would ask you to come in for the third.



Yes, that seems like a good idea, totally agree!


----------



## Johnno260 (17 Mar 2020)

I work for a US firm, my plant went from a 50 person manufacturing place to a 4 person sales/engineering hub, 3 sales and I'm the engineer.
The EU sales manager called the head sales guy here, he said go and work from home, after he saw the latest UK advisory.
My boss, I'm concerned about your productivity if you work from home, and from a social distancing point of view being in an empty office in an empty office block is possibly better for you, I checked the internal corp message service, boss is working from home. like I said douchery is on the upward curve as well.


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> And now Laura Ashley, that's another 2700 jobs:
> 
> Laura Ashley goes into administration amid coronavirus outbreak putting 2,700 jobs at risk
> 
> (Independent link)



Carphone Warehouse has made a good business case for closing its shops, irrespective of virus impact.

Although there might be an element of 'a good day to bury bad news' about the announcement's timing.

Laura Ashley, again realistically, is saying the virus has tipped them over the edge.

I am expecting more Laura Ashleys than Carphone Warehouses in the coming weeks and months.


----------



## snorri (17 Mar 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If it's everywhere out there, sooner or later you will cop a dose.


That may well be correct, but if we are all sick together, patients will not only be lying on a trolley in a hospital corridor awaiting treatment, they'll also be stacked out in the hospital bicycle shed. The snowflakery as you describe it is an attempt to lessen peak load on hospital services by spreading the crisis over a longer period.
It's not for me to comment on your attitude to your own wellbeing, but your apparent recklessness could reflect adversely on the health and indeed the lives of others.


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

GM said:


> Yes, that seems like a good idea, totally agree!



Let's hope Mrs @Brompton Bruce agrees as well, because it looks she is in a position to have a genuine impact on the matter.


----------



## Levo-Lon (17 Mar 2020)

My wife will be working from home from tomorrow, and all vulnerable staff.


----------



## Mugshot (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Carphone Warehouse has made a good business case for closing its shops, irrespective of virus impact.
> 
> Although there might be an element of 'a good day to bury bad news' about the announcement's timing.
> 
> ...


I'm not suggesting that it's due to Corona, although, as you say, according to the Laura story it may have been what has caused rescue talks to stall, but they have been on the brink for years. It was in response to Levo's post about businesses going through as a result of Corona, the numbers left unemployed by that will not be helped with thousands losing their jobs as a result of restructuring or tenuously linked closures. 
I suspect you may well be right about the "good day to bury" angle and agree entirely that there will be many more to come, likely in rapid succession. 
The world is going to be a very different place after this is over.
What's the story in the courts now? I follow a couple of barrister's twitters and they seem to be most unimpressed with the government's response and the general conditions and facilities.


----------



## newfhouse (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> And now Laura Ashley, that's another 2700 jobs:
> 
> Laura Ashley goes into administration amid coronavirus outbreak putting 2,700 jobs at risk
> 
> (Independent link)


Brexit


----------



## Twinks (17 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Interesting.
> End of last year i had a bad dry cough which lasted rather a long time so have been wondering. Slight fever fatigue and aches at the beginning but i fought that off naturally after a few days. Cough lasted a lot longer. Was also aware of a breathing issue - only felt that when climbing on the bike but it was far far more noticeable than i would expect as am in tune with my body.
> Wouldn't say the overall symptoms were extreme in my case.
> Relates to the debate over testing. Fair to assume that if you have had it a test would show this?
> ...





Blue Hills said:


> Relates to the debate over testing. Fair to assume that if you have had it a test would show this?


According to what was said in the press conference yesterday they don't yet have a test which shows if you have already encountered the virus that's why they can't give accurate figures. Am curious myself as husband had the fever, muscle pain, fatigue and constant dry cough for around 7 days at Christmastime. No sniffles, or runny nose, just as described for the virus.


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Let's hope Mrs @Brompton Bruce agrees as well, because it looks she is in a position to have a genuine impact on the matter.


I’ll tell her.

One thing that is emerging from her network of GPs is that many are reporting that the Covid19 cough sounds very different from a ‘normal’ cough. It needs research but if this is true it may be a fast track way of diagnosis via phone or video link. Interesting but scary times.


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> What's the story in the courts now?



Regrettably, due to health problems I've been more off than on recently, so I'm not the best person to ask for an up to date position.

It was pretty much business as usual around here before Boris's latest announcement, which may have changed things.

What we could call 'business distancing' could easily be done for most interactions between the various people involved in a hearing.

Jurys could be a problem, most jury boxes are two rows of six fixed seats next to each other.

A juror could reasonably say it is now against government advice to sit in such close proximity to another person.


----------



## Twilkes (17 Mar 2020)

PaulSB said:


> You may be correct. I can only respond my wife is a highly experienced, retired medical professional of 40+ years. She was more ill than I have seen in 42 years.
> 
> Initially I felt she was wrong but after a lot of conversation I think she is correct. There was never a danger of the three people infecting others, they were too ill to go anywhere.



It wasn't coronavirus. The first UK case was detected in Chinese nationals at the end of January, the first 'internal' transmission at the end of February. If thousands of people had had it over Christmas they would have also been detected and current case numbers would have been much higher.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (17 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Not to be controversially getting everyone to be nice to everyone, but actually there is pretty much agreement across the board. The differences are cultural ones or how governments are run. *The UK's advice doesn't really conflict with anything people have said about singapore or hong kong. Where the difference lies is that as in Italy, the social distancing and lockdown was widely ignored. Very widely ignored. So widely ignored in fact that it's quite interesting that peeps keep on posting about you're allowed to go out for a bike ride. I wonder why that is! This is probably not a point missed by our leaders, but is one missed multiple times by people on this thread who keep on yelling social distancing to everything and that it'll somehow magically work or that people pay attention.* No one out there pays any attention to what's written here and not really too much to what Boris or anyone else says.



The fact is the above is not quite true, is it?

On 2nd March after the 1st Cobra meeting, Boris and his "experts" told us to wash our hands, and urged the public to "go about their business as usual".

That was after the bloodbath in Hubei and Daegu.

On 12th March, Boris and his "experts" announced we were going into the "delay" phase, all it meant was oldies should not go on cruises, schools should not take foreign trips, and people with cough self isolate for 7 days. That's it. I am pretty sure you mocked them yourself. Here it is.

That was when the bloodbath was well underway in Lombardy.

My point is the government did not have to be so complacent about it, indeed they shouldn't have - with messages like that, who can blame folks here saying they are allowed to go on bike rides? Who can criticise their bravado, that they are free men unlike the Chinese, and so are having none of it?

The Government could/should have broadcast the disasters that unfolded, and the measures taken, in these other countries, and told some truths, like how many ICU beds we have free, and what 1000, 10000, and 100000 infected might mean.

I am not saying this to get some joy out of "I told you so" to anybody (and for the avoidance of doubt definitely not you), but it would be good if we can come out of this with: 1) a greater appreciation of other countries' experience - we are neither superior in our intellect nor resilience, and 2) less trusting of "experts" when what they say makes no sense to you. It is good to see other experts have now managed to change their mind, but frankly the disastrous implication of the CMO/CSA' plan can be and was demonstrated on the back of an envelope, and we all know it, just some decided to leave either common sense or serious doubt at home.



cookiemonster said:


> Hong Kong putting everyone who's been abroad into 14 days quarantine. In 2 weeks, we've had 57 cases, 50 imported. The big risk we have is the virus coming back and starting a second wave just as we get on top of this after 7 weeks.



Yes. I suspect border control, combined with a test kit that produces quick result*, may well be the best course for the near future for territories that have clearly defeated the virus, like China, Singapore, Taiwan, Hongkong etc. and soon South Korea, and hopefully Britain in a few months. Until a vaccine has been found and proven safe, that is.

A "2nd wave" is therefore not inevitable.

The elephant in the room, is actually about the layoffs, the bankruptcies, and the resulting human tragedies. I don't know what the best considered answer is at this point, but if I were the government, my gut feeling is I would implement a social and economical safety net, WHATEVER IT COSTS, to minimise sufferings and to maximise the chance and speed of recovery.

In case it is not obvious, letting hundreds of thousands die first would not have lessened either the economical or the human tragedy, or made recovery quicker or faster, in fact the exact opposite. What about the depreciation of the £ from printing/borrowing money? All our neighbours are poorer too, their currencies will also depreciate, so does it really matter that much, and what better choice do any of us have anyway?

* a British company has claimed they are developing a test that works on a drop of blood to give result in 10 minutes. If not them, I suspect others are also trying, and will succeed eventually.


----------



## GetAGrip (17 Mar 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Brexit


This is not the time to go it alone! 
Re. Brexit, if only all parties could do a Dallas and all get out of the shower with a bright and cheery "Morning"


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> According to what was said in the press conference yesterday they don't yet have a test which shows if you have already encountered the virus that's why they can't give accurate figures. Am curious myself as husband had the fever, muscle pain, fatigue and constant dry cough for around 7 days at Christmastime. No sniffles, or runny nose, just as described for the virus.


Yes that"s what i had, no sniffles, no runny nose, no sneezes to speak of. And the odd breathing thing which i have never experienced before, though for me it was only under exertion.


----------



## Mugshot (17 Mar 2020)

This Morning had two Corona experts on today, Vanessa Feltz and Stanley Johnson. Johnson offered some words of advice to the nation.


View: https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1239889857066999808?s=20


----------



## Mugshot (17 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Yes that"s what i had, no sniffles, no runny nose, no sneezes to speak of. And the odd breathing thing which i have never experienced before, though for me it was only under exertion.


I'm extraordinarily impressed that you have somehow managed to credit that quote to Pale Rider, I'm glad though that his husband seems to be better now.


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I'm extraordinarily impressed that you have somehow managed to credit that quote to Pale Rider, I'm glad though that his husband seems to be better now.


Could Pale Rider be Mr Regulator?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (17 Mar 2020)

I read now that the FCO is advising against all non-essential travel to anywhere else on the planet. Ooft!


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> One thing that is emerging from her network of GPs is that many are reporting that the Covid19 cough sounds very different from a ‘normal’ cough. It needs research but if this is true it may be a fast track way of diagnosis via phone or video link.


Please report back if you learn more on this.
Wouldn't the chinese have reported if it was so distinctive?
(Tho suppose authorities could be very wary of seeming to devolve symptom analysis to individuals)


----------



## marinyork (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’ll tell her.
> 
> One thing that is emerging from her network of GPs is that many are reporting that the Covid19 cough sounds very different from a ‘normal’ cough. It needs research but if this is true it may be a fast track way of diagnosis via phone or video link. Interesting but scary times.



Like ACE inhibitor cough?


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

Twilkes said:


> It wasn't coronavirus. The first case was detected in Chinese nationals at the end of January, the first 'internal' transmission at the end of February. If thousands of people had had it over Christmas they would have also been detected and current case numbers would have been much higher.


Mm
China is a big place and the government is hardly free with information. It's a matter of record isn't it that they initially tried to forcibly suppress news. I out no great faith in what the chinese government is telling us now.


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I'm extraordinarily impressed that you have somehow managed to credit that quote to Pale Rider, I'm glad though that his husband seems to be better now.


Sorry, usual wonky tab issue, partly caused perhaps by certain blockers i have - maybe should start stamping my posts to indicate whether they come from tab or one of the more able chromebooks.

Was of course a reply to @Twinks 
I hesitate to try to edit the quote in case i rope more of you in.


----------



## Mugshot (17 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1239910221528662024?s=20


----------



## Mugshot (17 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Now its really getting serious.
> Just reading that Jehovahs Witnesses have cancelled all door to door witnessing, all public meetings and all those public literature carts you see.


While muttering "Told ya so!"


----------



## Twilkes (17 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Mm
> China is a big place and the government is hardly free with information. It's a matter of record isn't it that they initially tried to forcibly suppress news. I out no great faith in what the chinese government is telling us now.



First UK case was recorded at the end of January, two Chinese nationals on holiday.

This gives a good outline, Wikipedia but it's all referenced: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom


----------



## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> And now Laura Ashley, that's another 2700 jobs:
> 
> Laura Ashley goes into administration amid coronavirus outbreak putting 2,700 jobs at risk
> 
> (Independent link)


Been in trouble some time always looked as a when not if.


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Please report back if you learn more on this.
> Wouldn't the chinese have reported if it was so distinctive?
> (Tho suppose authorities could be very wary of seeming to devolve symptom analysis to individuals)





marinyork said:


> Like ACE inhibitor cough?


I'm not sure exactly what makes it distinctive - it seems that for it to be used in research and ultimately diagnosis, it would need a 'code'. This hasn't happened yet. It's a good point about what the Chinese experience is - there is all sort of collaboration going on and I suspect this will trickle down - although as ever, many clinicians/academics are looking for a high tech diagnosis and classifying a cough, simple as it may be, might be seen as a low priority. But watch this space, I'll feedback as and when I hear more.


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Could Pale Rider be Mr Regulator?



Where's the 'unlike' button?


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Where's the 'unlike' button?


I'm sorry.....I should do 50 Hail Marys for that. I hope I'm forgiven.


----------



## PK99 (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> One thing that is emerging from her network of GPs is that many are reporting that the Covid19 cough *sounds very different from a ‘normal’ cough*. It needs research but if this is true it may be a fast track way of diagnosis via phone or video link.



Could you clarify the highlighted point. In what way different?


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'm sorry.....I should do 50 Hail Marys for that. I hope I'm forgiven.



No worries, I'm all in favour of a bit of levity.

But a union between me and Regulator would not be one made in heaven.


----------



## fossyant (17 Mar 2020)

On a positive note, you can't be dragged to Church on Sunday (Cof E)


----------



## PK99 (17 Mar 2020)

Twilkes said:


> It wasn't coronavirus. *The first case was detected in Chinese nationals at the end of January,* the first 'internal' transmission at the end of February. If thousands of people had had it over Christmas they would have also been detected and current case numbers would have been much higher.



That timeline is now in dispute:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...nas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...november-china-government-records-show-report


----------



## marinyork (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'm not sure exactly what makes it distinctive - it seems that for it to be used in research and ultimately diagnosis, it would need a 'code'. This hasn't happened yet. It's a good point about what the Chinese experience is - there is all sort of collaboration going on and I suspect this will trickle down - although as ever, many clinicians/academics are looking for a high tech diagnosis and classifying a cough, simple as it may be, might be seen as a low priority. But watch this space, I'll feedback as and when I hear more.



Well being serious, it's a great one, as you can have recordings of coughs, do sound analysis of coughs and even get techs on coughs. Or even if just playing back for training. You could even get computer diagnostics to aid it. Or you can not do all of that stuff and the doctors will still do a good job of picking it up, safer, send to the 111 pods at ends of motorways etc. 

The ACE inhibitor cough just curious as that has a very 'distinctive' cough which I struggle to describe. It also tallies with ACE2 stuff, which is any of that stuff is true is a bit scary, but also good as possible treatments there.

I was also curious as the last few days when the advise said about particular coughs I wondered internal discussions of doctors.


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Could you clarify the highlighted point. In what way different?


I'm afraid I'm not a clinician and so can't add many more details than the description given by the NHS which describes it as a continuous cough – (this means you've started coughing repeatedly).

My understanding is that if you are a GP (or chest physician) you are able to distinguish between different sorts of coughs - and this helps with the diagnosis. This is built up through the years of experience seeing patients. My wife is an academic GP but no longer sees patients (she stopped after a serious illness left her with a compromised immune system), however she still talks to many of her clinical colleagues and this thing about the cough is just anecdotal at the moment. But I'm sure we'll hear more.


----------



## PK99 (17 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Like* ACE inhibitor cough*?



For me that is an occasional deep down dry tickle-cough, The corona virus is described as 'continuous'


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Well being serious, it's a great one, as you can have recordings of coughs, do sound analysis of coughs and even get techs on coughs. Or even if just playing back for training. You could even get computer diagnostics to aid it. Or you can not do all of that stuff and the doctors will still do a good job of picking it up, safer, send to the 111 pods at ends of motorways etc.
> 
> The ACE inhibitor cough just curious as that has a very 'distinctive' cough which I struggle to describe. It also tallies with ACE2 stuff, which is any of that stuff is true is a bit scary, but also good as possible treatments there.
> 
> I was also curious as the last few days when the advise said about particular coughs I wondered internal discussions of doctors.





PK99 said:


> For me that is an occasional deep down dry tickle-cough, The corona virus is described as 'continuous'


I will see what I can find out - all very helpful suggestions. Who says CC doesn't operate on a higher intellectual plane?


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Who says CC doesn't operate on a higher intellectual plane?



I did, probably several times.

There's no doubt the corona threads have raised us a little way out of the intellectual gutter.

We're not quite reaching for the stars, but I wouldn't want us to be.


----------



## Twilkes (17 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> That timeline is now in dispute:
> 
> https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...nas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...november-china-government-records-show-report



I was meaning the first UK case, have now edited to clarify that.


----------



## marinyork (17 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> For me that is an occasional deep down dry tickle-cough, The corona virus is described as 'continuous'



What I meant was that ACE inhibitor cough to me is more occasional but 'continuous' or as people describe it 'persistent', but that coronavirus sounds like the same thing dialed up in earlier stages (it would be in some ways unfortunately with what we know's going on underneath). I know some people get some other symptoms also with ACE inhibitor cough. 

The ibuprofen advice the french gave seems to be going around the NHS now. 

If any slower insights derived over months make a difference great, as small things could make a sizeable difference just due to the vast numbers. 

Dunno if anyone finds the vid from speed pharmacology interesting.


----------



## MarkF (17 Mar 2020)

Friday - Wear a mask, bin it as you leave casualty, put on a fresh one on your return.

Saturday - Wear a mask, take it off & put it in your pocket as you leave casualty. Put it on again as you re-enter.

Sunday - Here's your mask, that's your lot.

Monday - Ditto.

Tuesday - Oh, we are not bothering now.


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

Parliamentary committee on bbc news at mo - good - simple straightforward questions being asked of one of chief health bods = and good simple straight answers.


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

Twilkes said:


> I was meaning the first UK case, have now edited to clarify that.


but in global world could have been in london then well before christmas.


----------



## Fab Foodie (17 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Parliamentary committee on bbc news at mo - good - simple straightforward questions being asked of one of chief health bods = and good simple straight answers.


Are you sure it's not the afternoon play?


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

@Pale Rider - have you seen this?

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/crime/jury-discharged-by-judge-1-6564900

The judge in a Norwich Crown Court trial has discharged the jury due to coronavirus outbreak.


----------



## snorri (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> This Morning had two Corona experts on today, Vanessa Feltz and Stanley Johnson. Johnson offered some words of advice to the nation.


Thanks Mugshot but that's one link I will NOT be clicking on.
What's that phrase, 'Like son like father' was it ?


----------



## Twilkes (17 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> but in global world could have been in london then well before christmas.



Then it would have spread and been detected as such. There is no suggestion from any professional involved in the current work that the virus was circulating at this time, only from people who were a bit more ill than they usually would expect to be. It's distracting attention from the current situation.


----------



## Blue Hills (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I am expecting more Laura Ashleys than Carphone Warehouses in the coming weeks and months.



Me too - intu, the big shopping centre outfit reported big problens within the last week or two. Amongst other things they own the massive Manchester Trafford centre - cycled past it on Friday - empty trams were doing test runs for the new tramlink about to open. Can't see many folk wandering round the trafford centre at the mo and for a fair while - non of the stuff in there is vital as far as know.


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> @Pale Rider - have you seen this?
> 
> https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/crime/jury-discharged-by-judge-1-6564900
> 
> The judge in a Norwich Crown Court trial has discharged the jury due to coronavirus outbreak.



No, but I have thanks to you.

The 'two key players' in the case have not been named, and nor do we know which of the many roles they were due to play in it.

But it looks like the judge has halted the trial because they fall into one of the higher risk categories.

Looking at it another way, the case would have proceeded if no one involved had any genuine medical need to self isolate, which means other cases can proceed as well.

It had occurred to me that jury trials were continuing.

As we speak, Alex Salmond is trying to convince a jury that nine women each independently made up allegations of sexual abuse against him.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51926614


----------



## Julia9054 (17 Mar 2020)

There are 16 teachers in the science department at my school. There are 7 staff away. 5 have coughs, 1 lives with someone with a cough and 1 is pregnant and self isolating. We have 6 technicians and one is off very I’ll with a cough and fever. No idea, obviously, if any actually have the Coronavirus


----------



## Rezillo (17 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Parliamentary committee on bbc news at mo - good - simple straightforward questions being asked of one of chief health bods = and good simple straight answers.



I never thought I'd hear myself say this but bring back Jeremy Hunt as health secretary. He was interviewed a few days ago on Sky and was measured and clearly well briefed. He's been good today as well with questions that were sometimes poorly responded to. He let those drop and now is steering round to them again.

Matthew Hancock, on the other hand, looks like a rabbit caught in the headlights when interviewed. Completely out of his depth.


----------



## Mugshot (17 Mar 2020)

In related news:

Isis has warned its followers to avoid travelling to Europe because of the coronavirus outbreak.

(Independent link)


----------



## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Who'd have thought there would be a genuine ISIS virus story?

The virus is a gift to editors that keeps on giving.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> As we speak, Alex Salmond is trying to convince a jury that nine women each independently made up allegations of sexual abuse against him.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51926614



I think the defence is; every time Salmond got pissed, the women in Bute House were uncontrollably "gagging for it"


----------



## Fab Foodie (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> *I will see what I can find out - all very helpful suggestions. Who says CC doesn't operate on a higher intellectual plane?*


Most of us....


----------



## Mugshot (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Who says CC doesn't operate on a higher intellectual plane?


Could you explain what this means please?


----------



## pawl (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> While muttering "Told ya so!"




Not all bad news then.


----------



## Mugshot (17 Mar 2020)

CofE copies the JWs

Archbishops call for Church of England to become radically different as public worship put on hold to help stem spread of coronavirus

(Church of England link)


----------



## johnblack (17 Mar 2020)

I've just read the transcript of Mark Rutte's address to the Dutch people yesterday, it seems like they're working very much along the lines of the UK's approach, https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/16/coronavirus-full-text-prime-minister-ruttes-national-address-english


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## deptfordmarmoset (17 Mar 2020)

Food bank closing:

Islington food bank in north *London* has announced it is to close after running low on food stocks and losing many of its volunteers who have been forced to self-isolate to avoid coronavirus infection.

The food bank, part of the Trussell trust network, is understood to be the first of the trust’s 426 food banks to close. The trust said no others had yet reported difficulties but it was carrying out a rapid survey of its members to gauge “pressure points”.

In a statement on its website Islington food bank said:



> We understand that we provide a service to vulnerable people who may need us more now than ever, but still feel this is the best course of action for several reasons:


 

The health and safety of our volunteers and clients is our top priority, and we feel this is the best way to minimise the risk of infection.
Our food supplies are running low, with donations down and supermarkets limiting how much we can order, meaning that soon we will not be able to give our clients full food bags.
We need a minimum number of volunteers at each session to operate safely. Increasing numbers are self-isolating and this is set to increase further if restrictions on over-70s come in as many of our volunteers are retired.
 
Many food banks warned last week that they were running out of staple food such as UHT milk and tinned pasta and tinned meat because of increased demand for food parcels coupled with lower donations caused by panic-buying in shops and supermarkets.​ 
Islington food bank said it would close on March 223 until further notice, adding that it would re-open “as soon as we feel it is safe to do so.”​ 
Emma Revie, chief executive of the Trussell Trust, said:​ 


> Our main priority is ensuring the safety of everyone who comes to a food bank – whether it’s someone needing help, someone volunteering their time, or someone making a donation. Food banks sometimes run low on certain items, but we’ve not yet heard that any food bank in our network is running out of all food donations. A crisis can often bring out the best in people, and we encourage everyone to carry on donating after checking with their local food bank which items are most needed.


 
***Whether you need the support of your local food bank or wish to donate items, find out more here.​
Source: Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f-isolation-travel-bans-borders-latest-update


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## fossyant (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> There are 16 teachers in the science department at my school. There are 7 staff away. 5 have coughs, 1 lives with someone with a cough and 1 is pregnant and self isolating. We have 6 technicians and one is off very I’ll with a cough and fever. No idea, obviously, if any actually have the Coronavirus



I don't think we ever really will, unless you are very poorly, or 'famous'.


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## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> I never thought I'd hear myself say this but bring back Jeremy Hunt as health secretary. He was interviewed a few days ago on Sky and was measured and clearly well briefed. He's been good today as well with questions that were sometimes poorly responded to. He let those drop and now is steering round to them again.
> 
> Matthew Hancock, on the other hand, looks like a rabbit caught in the headlights when interviewed. Completely out of his depth.



What a great idea he's do more damage now then the virus. He decimated the good will of staff over saw the 1st ever Junior Dr strike and it was only due to the RCN executive calling a strike ballot then ignoring the members yes vote. That he get away without the nurses walking out.


----------



## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> There are 16 teachers in the science department at my school. There are 7 staff away. 5 have coughs, 1 lives with someone with a cough and 1 is pregnant and self isolating. We have 6 technicians and one is off very I’ll with a cough and fever. No idea, obviously, if any actually have the Coronavirus



Blimey Staffing levels like that we can only dream of now since our Academy take over.


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## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The telephone consultation worked in that it dealt successfully with the two minor things I was inquiring about.
> 
> In that limited respect it was no different to me visiting the surgery.
> 
> ...



To complete this tale, I've just visited the pharmacy and my pain killer part of the prescription was there.

The bandage part was not, so communications have broken down somewhere.

To save time, I bought a tenner box of the bandage.

My prescriptions are covered by a season ticket, but I've done well enough out of that over the years, so paying piecemeal for the odd item is no problem.


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## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

I've just been to our Morrisons all joking aside i'm totally at a loss as to the utter mindless thinking of people. I only went in for a few day to day bit's. I've seen better stock levels in stores I've overseen the shutting down of. No point me going in the end left with the only box of Cup-a-Soup. So Mrs 73 can at least take that to work. 

I did manage to get some milk in Iceland one of only 3 left. 
Spotted a notice as I went in tomorrow they are opening 8.30-10.30 for the elderly which they class as anyone on state pension and anyone in a vulnerable group (not sure how they will police that one). Saying that if they don't stock up it will not be much good. 

Anyone else think that stores still running promotions like multi buys is not very socially responsible at the moment ? 

Our local shop is going his normal thing when people get like this. Last week he filled his van with toilet rolls at last week price and now has a sign up say toilet rolls, medication and other essential goods all in stock. But not at last weeks price mind.


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## glasgowcyclist (17 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I've just been to our Morrisons all joking aside i'm totally at a loss as to the utter mindless thinking of people. I only went in for a few day to day bit's. I've seen better stock levels in stores I've overseen the shutting down of. No point me going in the end left with the only box of Cup-a-Soup. So Mrs 73 can at least take that to work.
> 
> I did manage to get some milk in Iceland one of only 3 left.
> Spotted a notice as I went in tomorrow they are opening 8.30-10.30 for the elderly which they class as anyone on state pension and anyone in a vulnerable group (not sure how they will police that one). Saying that if they don't stock up it will not be much good.
> ...



Having never worked in a supermarket I don’t know if this thought is workable or not, so feel free to adjust it or shoot me down in flames.

Gather all the highly sought-after essentials that people are panic buying into a couple of roped off aisles. Customers don’t get to wander up and fill their trolleys but instead a staff member(s) will retrieve the permitted quantity and hand it over. Customer continues with remainder of shopping duties.

It’s by no means foolproof but could it be made to work? It would just be going back to the old days when the shop assistant got you everything on your list while you waited.


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## SpokeyDokey (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Could you explain what this means please?



You wouldn't understand.


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## PeteXXX (17 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Having never worked in a supermarket I don’t know if this thought is workable or not, so feel free to adjust it or shoot me down in flames.
> 
> Gather all the highly sought-after essentials that people are panic buying into a couple of roped off aisles. Customers don’t get to wander up and fill their trolleys but instead a staff member(s) will retrieve the permitted quantity and hand it over. Customer continues with remainder of shopping duties.
> 
> It’s by no means foolproof but could it be made to work? It would just be going back to the old days when the shop assistant got you everything on your list while you waited.



Tesco's, yesterday, were monitoring purchases at the tills. The girl in front of us was only allowed 2 tubs of Sudocreme for her kids, not the 3 she had, so they wouldn't scan the third. Same with gnocchi, but she was allowed 3 as they were fresh pasta, not dry. This was decided by a conversation with the next door till person.


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## SpokeyDokey (17 Mar 2020)

I'm a bit wary of some of the death estimates:

With Swine Flu which was a decade or so back: the range in the UK was a minimum of 3100 deaths (bit of an odd number) to 65000 worst case and the actual was 457.


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## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I'm a bit wary of some of the death estimates:
> 
> With Swine Flu which was a decade or so back: the range in the UK was a minimum of 3100 deaths (bit of an odd number) to 65000 worst case and the actual was 457.


It is so difficult to untangle these, even retrospectively. Sadly many of these people (currently projected to die from Covid19) will have a range of quite serious diseases. There's no doubt that covid19 has probably sped up their demise but it is hard to estimate. It also depends on what has been put on their death certificate and this isn't always an exact science. What also makes the daily comparison of figures difficult is the change in testing policy and the fact that many people infected show no symptoms at all.


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## Joey Shabadoo (17 Mar 2020)

Extraordinary from the Chancellor


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## glasgowcyclist (17 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Extraordinary from the Chancellor



Quite surprising. I do wonder how, down the line, they will recoup all this money.


----------



## Fab Foodie (17 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Extraordinary from the Chancellor


Extraordinary what? Fart, long sentence, behaviour, saxophone solo?


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Extraordinary what? Fart, long sentence, behaviour, saxophone solo?


I don't know why but I've now got a fit of the giggles.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (17 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Quite surprising. I do wonder how, down the line, they will recoup all this money.



Austerity 2 ?


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## Joey Shabadoo (17 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Extraordinary what? Fart, long sentence, behaviour, saxophone solo?


£300 billion of support


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## vickster (17 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Quite surprising. I do wonder how, down the line, they will recoup all this money.


Tax?


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## randynewmanscat (17 Mar 2020)

My Mrs was due to fly to England on Wednesday, flight cancelled so she changed the booking to next Sunday, all good. I mainly avoided the news yesterday so missed an important announcement until this morning. I need to print off a form and tick the box for my reason for being "at large" and I need to date it so one form a trip. Ferrying my Mrs to Limoges so that she can get some business done in the UK is not listed, its life and death stuff only. 
https://www.gouvernement.fr/sites/d...03/attestation_de_deplacement_derogatoire.pdf


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## marinyork (17 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Having never worked in a supermarket I don’t know if this thought is workable or not, so feel free to adjust it or shoot me down in flames.
> 
> Gather all the highly sought-after essentials that people are panic buying into a couple of roped off aisles. Customers don’t get to wander up and fill their trolleys but instead a staff member(s) will retrieve the permitted quantity and hand it over. Customer continues with remainder of shopping duties.
> 
> It’s by no means foolproof but could it be made to work? It would just be going back to the old days when the shop assistant got you everything on your list while you waited.



This happens with turkeys and fireworks. It's extremely problematic. My fear would genuinely be a riot or assault having seen how people behave. You would need two security guards there I reckon based on patterns in stores.


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## Fab Foodie (17 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> £300 billion of support


Remind me.... How much did we spaff into the channel over Brexit?


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## Mugshot (17 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> This happens with turkeys and fireworks. It's extremely problematic. My fear would genuinely be a riot or assault having seen how people behave. You would need two security guards there I reckon based on patterns in stores.


Yes, the idea itself is sound, the issue is the customer, who of course are the issue to start with. Retail staff are simply not paid enough for the abuse, physical intimidation and likely assault they would suffer.


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## deptfordmarmoset (17 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Quite surprising. I do wonder how, down the line, they will recoup all this money.


It's nearly all loans, repayable with interest. No idea what rate though.


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## midlife (17 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Quite surprising. I do wonder how, down the line, they will recoup all this money.



I thought they were mostly low interest loans with repayments starting in 6 months?


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## MontyVeda (17 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Having never worked in a supermarket I don’t know if this thought is workable or not, so feel free to adjust it or shoot me down in flames.
> 
> Gather all the highly sought-after essentials that people are panic buying into a couple of roped off aisles. Customers don’t get to wander up and fill their trolleys but instead a staff member(s) will retrieve the permitted quantity and hand it over. Customer continues with remainder of shopping duties.
> 
> It’s by no means foolproof but could it be made to work? It would just be going back to the old days when the shop assistant got you everything on your list while you waited.


It's a lot easier to just police purchases at the tills then rearrange a supermarket and rope off an aisle. 

In Aldi we're limiting purchases to no more than 4 of any one item. I work the shop floor rather than the tills and anyone I see with more than four of something I explain the situation and take the surplus back to where it belongs. The till staff are also putting the surplus to one side. No one's got overly shirty with us yet (to my knowledge), but they often come out with a feeble excuse as to why they need more than four, at which point, we apologise, explain the situation and reassert the 'no more than four' rule.


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## Adam4868 (17 Mar 2020)

Wasnt really that good though was it ? Loans....at what cost ? What's the point of loans when you have no customers or business,Have they ever heard of self employed ? Are these loans just for companys? What about the workers having to find rent and get by with no work ?


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## SpokeyDokey (17 Mar 2020)

Rate of infection slowing in Italy (BBC News 18.25 today):

*Italy death toll jumps, but rate of infections slows*

The latest figures from Italy, Europe's worst-hit country, report a further 345 deaths in the past 24 hours. It's an increase of 16%.
The virus has now killed 2,503 people there - 2,060 people are in intensive care, from among a total of 31,506 cases, up from 27,980. However, this was the slowest rate of increase since Italy identified the presence of the virus.


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## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Pleased to hear of the efforts of supermarkets to ration items.

Although allowing someone to only purchase a little more then they could possibly need is hardly 'rationing' in the way someone with wartime experience would understand it.

A woman in the chemist queue said to me there's 'nowt' in Morrisons and a couple of other supermarkets she tried.

When pressed, it appeared she meant some items were out of stock.

This type of exaggerated gossip over shortages only makes matters worse.

I nipped into a Spar shop after the chemist, and stock levels seemed normal.

Not much bread left, but I've seen that before.

Once again, I didn't think to check for toilet roll because I don't need any.

Must be all those pain killers from the chemist making my existing stock last a long time.


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## glasgowcyclist (17 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Tax?



Yes. Will it be scraped back from those on lower pay or will they take the opportunity to tax the very wealthy a little more?


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## vickster (17 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Yes. Will it be scraped back from those on lower pay or will they take the opportunity to tax the very wealthy a little more?


No idea


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## MontyVeda (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Pleased to hear of the efforts of supermarkets to ration items.
> 
> Although allowing someone to only purchase a little more then they could possibly need is hardly 'rationing' in the way someone with wartime experience would understand it.
> 
> ...


It's limiting rather than rationing.... but as I keep saying to my colleagues, it wasn't anywhere near this bad in the war (the Falklands one)


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## glasgowcyclist (17 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> No idea



Me neither but my maxim of ‘never trust a Tory’ makes me wonder.


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## vickster (17 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Me neither but my maxim of ‘never trust a Tory’ makes me wonder.


fair enough


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## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> It's limiting rather than rationing.... but as I keep saying to my colleagues, it wasn't anywhere near this bad in the war (the Falklands one)



Yes, limiting is a better description.


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## mjr (17 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> This Morning had two Corona experts on today, Vanessa Feltz and Stanley Johnson. Johnson offered some words of advice to the nation.
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1239889857066999808?s=20



Advice? It sounded more like he was coming out as a compulsive alcoholic who feels he "has to" go to pubs. Shame on everyone in not offering him support with his addiction.


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## Venod (17 Mar 2020)

I found this article from the Washington Post interesting, there is no need to subscribe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...G6DWsZ0vbOlP8ic7wftuPgJbAE7j3qkbCLAbI8jJONzRk


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## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

our Local tesco express oh lord it's a total wipe out. Most out of stock tickets say due 25th March. Watched one guy with a right list and basket over flowing. The look I have him was enough and went all sheepish. Boy he was really peed of when he found no pasta left (that went well over a week ago) The thing about local shops is like ours it really important for older people and the like. The very ones who now need the odd bit more.


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## randynewmanscat (17 Mar 2020)

How many days do you think it will take for the UK to enforce a virtual curfew as they have done here? It took one day here, one day after people went out to vote in local elections mind.


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## Mo1959 (17 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> our Local tesco express oh lord it's a total wipe out. Most out of stock tickets say due 25th March. Watched one guy with a right list and basket over flowing. The look I have him was enough and went all sheepish. Boy he was really peed of when he found no pasta left (that went well over a week ago) The thing about local shops is like ours it really important for older people and the like. The very ones who now need the odd bit more.


This is making me extremely angry. Why can’t they just shop as normal?


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## DCLane (17 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> This is making me extremely angry. Why can’t they just shop as normal?



Possibly because, if they're anything like me, they're looking at 12+ weeks being isolated. There's no home delivery slots and I'm awaiting a phone call to say I'm off-limits.

We've about 2-3 weeks worth of food in and we'd need to send my 15yo shopping for us if both get phone calls.


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## Mike_P (17 Mar 2020)

Fresh fruit devestated now, how on earth is all that going to be kept fresh or are they just going to eat fresh fruit as a means of justifying the amount of toilet rolls purchased. Both the largest Co-Op and Asda were the same, tried a Co-Op at a petrol station but no fruit stocked and outside their was the somewhat unpleasant sight of a noticeably overweight man naked bar boxers and shoes. Next tried a small Co-Op in a former pub and bags of bananas a plenty and with a Co-Op mobile app voucher plus Co-Op card savings the £1 asking price fell to a bargain 26p


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## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> This is making me extremely angry. Why can’t they just shop as normal?



f..K knows.
i've just seen that Tesco's in Hove have had to remove the food bank drop off box. After someone reported seeing it being raided. How low can you get ?


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## mjr (17 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> This happens with turkeys and fireworks. It's extremely problematic.


Stop giving fireworks to turkeys, then!


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## mjr (17 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Fresh fruit devestated now,


Only noticed limes sold out here today (because they protect you from flu?). I'm told bananas were sold out for half a day. All other fresh stuff seemed plentiful.


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## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Jury trials postponed in Scotland, according to the BBC.

Beeb is also saying there are 'calls' from barristers for courts in England to do the same.

I can see the focus on the jury, because it's the one part of the process where keeping your distance from others is very difficult.

Other hearings can take place in reasonable safety.

I've no inside knowledge on this one, but it looks to me inevitable England and Wales will have to follow suit.

Worth pointing out the Scottish order applies to trials yet to start, so the high profile case of Alex Salmond will continue as normal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51935320


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## Buck (17 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Having never worked in a supermarket I don’t know if this thought is workable or not, so feel free to adjust it or shoot me down in flames.
> 
> Gather all the highly sought-after essentials that people are panic buying into a couple of roped off aisles. Customers don’t get to wander up and fill their trolleys but instead a staff member(s) will retrieve the permitted quantity and hand it over. Customer continues with remainder of shopping duties.
> 
> It’s by no means foolproof but could it be made to work? It would just be going back to the old days when the shop assistant got you everything on your list while you waited.



This is already happening but via the checkout software. If you try to buy say 3 of an item and the limit is now set to 2 then it won’t permit the sale.
the challenge is restocking the shelves as a lot of stock is having to be pulled from holding depots (some are owned by the retailers but some are owned by the manufacturers) which takes longer as its another journey and process or the suppliers are “just in time” and have to up production to meet the demand spike.


----------



## Rocky (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Jury trials postponed in Scotland, according to the BBC.
> 
> Beeb is also saying there are 'calls' from barristers for courts in England to do the same.
> 
> ...


I gather that in WW2 cases (other than murder and treason) could be held with as few as seven jurors. I wonder if that would be the way forward rather than judge only trials.


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## Rusty Nails (17 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> This is making me extremely angry. Why can’t they just shop as normal?



Because this is nothing like normal.

On the one hand we are told there is plenty of stuff around and then newspapers report shortages. Which is very worrying if you are one of the groups that is being told you could have to stay in for months. The UK has grown a system of large supermarkets away from high streets so not everyone has a local shop they can just pop into.

We are lucky in that we have a couple of local shops within a few hundred yards and we have a large fridge freezer that at any one time has enough in it to keep us going for weeks, and my wife can make great meals out of the most basic ingredients. Many people today are not so self-sufficient when it comes to cooking.

I am old enough to remember how to keep squares of newspaper hanging on a hook in the toilet, so am not going to go into a panic over toilet roll shortages.

I don't like this panic-buying, but until I know the individual circumstances I will not rush to condemn.


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## pawl (17 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> This is making me extremely angry. Why can’t they just shop as normal?




It annoys me also.We have done our weekly shop online for sometime now..we can view as you probably know your regular basket once a week we either add goods we don’t use on a regular basis or delete items from the regular list.So far it has worked well On occasion they my put a substitute in same product different producer.Not usually a problem

Not ordered toilet rolls as Mrs P has always bought extra when they are on offer so we probably will not need to order more for two weeks.

I remember the period of rationing during the latter stages of the war and post war I may be wrong buti ido fell that we’re were a more caring. community back then we new are neighbours back then. I have lived for some time and only really know a few of my neighbours well


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## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> Possibly because, if they're anything like me, they're looking at 12+ weeks being isolated. There's no home delivery slots and I'm awaiting a phone call to say I'm off-limits.
> 
> We've about 2-3 weeks worth of food in and we'd need to send my 15yo shopping for us if both get phone calls.



Ok i understand that but people don't need what my mate spotted last week. A couple walking out with 2x24 multi pack toilet rolls each that's 96 rolls FFS. 
Also if times are going to get really hard than people can't expect to cook the same stuff they will have to learn how to make things a bit different. Problem is most have no idea how to manage. 
The only way we can get though this is to pull together.
I can't help my neighbour get some shopping or cook some stuff for the freezer if even I can't find stuff for them or have stuff to cook for them.


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## Pale Rider (17 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I gather that in WW2 cases (other than murder and treason) could be held with as few as seven jurors. I wonder if that would be the way forward rather than judge only trials.



That may work for a jury box which would then have an occupant in every other seat.

Most retiring rooms also have enough space for seven people to sit further than a metre or more away from each other.

Waiting juror rooms might be more difficult, because the equivalent of several panels has to wait there, although you would be using the seven times table rather than the 12 times one.

Filing in and out of court could be a problem, but I suppose it could be managed by sending them in with a time gap between each.

The jurors all have to pile into a lift at Newcastle Crown Court, so they might have to do two or three at a time.

Anything is better than letting a judge decide.

As judges often say when thanking a panel:

"We are very grateful to you for coming to court to do your public duty.
"The jury system may not be perfect, but it's the best we have.
"If you weren't here to decide guilt or innocence, someone like me would have to do it."


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## Buck (17 Mar 2020)

I popped into Sainsbury’s this morning for a few. It’s and pieces and it was still devastated. No fresh chicken or meat of any sort but odds and ends of bacon and a smattering of ready meals. Fresh fruit and veg was low but OK. no soap or toilet rolls. 
The priority was on the grocery side with pallet boards of stock 9n the shop floor and everyone helping out to get the stock on display (They normally only revert to boards instead of roll cages at Peak times as it is much quicker to pick and distribute on boards vs roll pallets)

Fresh Food will have been trimmed by the forecasting teams as they will be modelling that people are switching to stock cupboard items so trying to prevent losses due to date code issues. Also, the supermarkets will be throttling back perishables to give more space on the delivery vehicles for the non-perishable items. 

In my observation, everyone was being very calm and I didn’t see any evidence of people buying multiples of products (those that were available). checkout colleague said it had been busy since first thing.


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## pawl (17 Mar 2020)

Making meals from basics seems to be a long lost skill.Fortunatlly Mrs p is a good cook so we don’t have pre prepared food very often Majority of meals are from fresh produce and usually cooks double what is needed for one meal,the extra is frozen


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## itboffin (17 Mar 2020)

its nuts i popped into Tesco for some mushrooms and greens to add to my lunch stir-fry and all but the fruit & veg were decimated, mind you the booze is still well stocked, shame i'm not drinking


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## Buck (17 Mar 2020)

We’ll also being using this as a time to look at whats I. Our freezers and end up with a few “concoctions” as we call it. Not unheard of for the four of us to eat a meal together consisting of four different lots of left overs etc.!


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## Julia9054 (17 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> squares of newspaper hanging on a hook


Who still reads newspapers? I’m not wiping my bum on my iPad!


----------



## Mo1959 (17 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Making meals from basics seems to be a long lost skill.Fortunatlly Mrs p is a good cook so we don’t have pre prepared food very often Majority of meals are from fresh produce and usually cooks double what is needed for one meal,the extra is frozen


Embarrassed to admit, i don’t cook. Don’t even have a freezer just now, just a fridge with small freezer compartment so I rely on the shops having fresh stuff as I just walk round a couple of times per week to get what I need.


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## pawl (17 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Embarrassed to admit, i don’t cook. Don’t even have a freezer just now, just a fridge with small freezer compartment so I rely on the shops having fresh stuff as I just walk round a couple of times per week to get what I need.


Don’t feel embarrassed,if I was on my own I would be doing the same thing.


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## Rusty Nails (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Who still reads newspapers? I’m not wiping my bum on my iPad!



Pass the mind bleach!


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## itboffin (17 Mar 2020)

i would also say and dont hate me for this but toilet rolls arent the only way to clean ones under carriage, think terry nappies ....just saying


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## vickster (17 Mar 2020)

itboffin said:


> i would also say and dont hate me for this but toilet rolls arent the only way to clean ones under carriage, think terry nappies ....just saying


Flannel plus shower


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## nickyboy (17 Mar 2020)

Panic buying is human nature. If you look around the world every country that has been hit by the epidemic has suffered panic buying. People buy stuff because they don't have confidence it will be there next time they visit and, as @DCLane says, they may be about to isolate for an extended period.

You can't stop demand, it's human nature. You have to stop supply (such as max 4 units of any product)


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## Rusty Nails (17 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Don’t feel embarrassed,if I was on my own I would be doing the same thing.



When my wife was in hospital for a year I had to learn to cook. Basically in the summer I lived on salads, while the rest of the year was centred around vegetable stew with different types of meat in it for variation. I could make a large stew last for four days.


----------



## pawl (17 Mar 2020)

itboffin said:


> i would also say and dont hate me for this but toilet rolls arent the only way to clean ones under carriage, think terry nappies ....just saying


From what I hear they also inshort supply.Think I will have to find a new use for my muc off bike cleaner.


----------



## snorri (17 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> How many days do you think it will take for the UK to enforce a virtual curfew as they have done here?


Don't know, what form does a virtual curfew take?
What are the pros and cons?


----------



## mjr (17 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> Don't know, what form does a virtual curfew take?


No cyclechat after 9pm.


----------



## Johnno260 (17 Mar 2020)

So after Boris said if you can work from home do so, we approached the regional sales manager and said shall we work from home, he said yes, someone further up the food chain has said no they only exception is if you came into contact with a confirmed case.
Yea employers rock. Working from home doesn’t affect what we do in the slightest we even diverted the phones to home numbers.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Who still reads newspapers? I’m not wiping my bum on my iPad!



Get the i-bog app


----------



## PK99 (17 Mar 2020)

Three week ago we got back from 2 weeks in Cuba.

Rationing and shortages are part of Cuban life.

Wages in Cuba top out at around $80 US equivalent per month. (Beer is $1-2 at a roadside stop and petrol is $1 per litre)

Basic foodstuffs (rice, beans, sugar, milk etc) are available cheap from Ration Shops - incidentally, there is no milk ration for anyone over 8 (sic)

Other things and extra food stuffs are available from other shops.

BUT, shortages are part of Cuban life, and queues 6 deep 50m long were commonplace while we were there as there was a soap shortage.

Which brings me to my point, shop keepers did the (informal) rationing of the soap - 3 small tablets (think the round tablets in hotel bathrooms) of plain unscented soap per person only.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> From what I hear they also inshort supply.Think I will have to find a new use for my muc off bike cleaner.



Powered off car cigarette lighter? Could be a show for the neighbours as you stand on the drive sorting yourself out.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> So after Boris said if you can work from home do so, we approached the regional sales manager and said shall we work from home, he said yes, someone further up the food chain has said no they only exception is if you came into contact with a confirmed case.



But how likely is that as they only test hospital cases. So they are the only confirmed cases rather than actual. Person up food chain must be thick if they don’t understand why working from home (where possible) is important.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (17 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Worth pointing out the Scottish order applies to trials yet to start, so the high profile case of Alex Salmond will continue as normal.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51935320



It's a scurrilous rumour that Salmond's legal team have been seen sprinkling pepper in the jury box.


----------



## pawl (17 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Powered off car cigarette lighter? Could be a show for the neighbours as you stand on the drive sorting yourself out.



what has car cigarette car lighter got todo with it. My car doesn’t have a cigarette lighter


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> what has car cigarette car lighter got todo with it. My car doesn’t have a cigarette lighter



Well if it’s powered from the socket in your car that’s the cigarette lighter socket and if you still had what used to be fitted in there you’d be able to light cigarettes as well as fires.

The design of that socket hadn’t changed in many decades


----------



## pawl (17 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Well if it’s powered from the socket in your car that’s the cigarette lighter socket and if you still had what used to be fitted in there you’d be able to light cigarettes as well as fires.
> 
> The design of that socket hadn’t changed in many decades


Perhaps you are not aware that Muc Off is a spray on bike cleaner which after a couple of minutes is washed off.Not sure why I would want to light a fire and I don’t smoke.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Perhaps you are not aware that Muc Off is a spray on bike cleaner which after a couple of minutes is washed off.Not sure why I would want to light a fire and I don’t smoke.



Errrm because you could have been referring to a low powered jet wash for bikes. You are clearly too young to know what the “power” sockets in cars were originally designed for.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Mar 2020)

Meanwhile bag some bargain holidays in Spain.


----------



## vickster (17 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Meanwhile bag some bargain holidays in Spain.
> 
> View attachment 508920


Except you won't get insurance as fco advising against non essential travel outside U.K. For 30 days


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (17 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Except you won't get insurance as fco advising against non essential travel outside U.K. For 30 days


Och, be daring, take a chance. What could possibly go wrong?


----------



## pawl (17 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Errrm because you could have been referring to a low powered jet wash for bikes. You are clearly too young to know what the “power” sockets in cars were originally designed for.


 
Ah with you.Never use a power washer on my bikes.Thank you from a 79 year old for the compliment.Quite pleased with that
I would be very embarrassed standing on the drive spraying my rear end.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Och, be daring, take a chance. What could possibly go wrong?


A family friend is stuck on Madeira and can't get a flight home. Still, a cheap deal's always a bargain....


----------



## icowden (17 Mar 2020)

Were they trying to have their cake and eat it ?


----------



## MarkF (17 Mar 2020)

The hospital was super quiet today 2-10pm, A&E is getting even quieter, when I left nobody was in the waiting room, normally 50+ and half the cubicles were empty.

I don't know why our how a virus suspected patient is assessed nor how a decision is made to keep them in. But there are quite a few now, all elderly, they've filled one ward and another has been opened, a further defunct ward is being re-commissioned.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Except you won't get insurance as fco advising against non essential travel outside U.K. For 30 days



Live a little...


----------



## tom73 (17 Mar 2020)

English heritage closing all staffed sites from end of tomorrow till 1st May. All free to visit sites still open. They say most are large enough to allow social distancing. 

My understanding is National Trust are closing all sites , shops and cafes by Friday. But looking at if possible opening up gardens and parkland for free.


----------



## Fab Foodie (17 Mar 2020)

itboffin said:


> i would also say and dont hate me for this but toilet rolls arent the only way to clean ones under carriage, think terry nappies ....just saying


Agreed. 
Have now moved to a bog-roll free system for home.


----------



## PeteXXX (17 Mar 2020)




----------



## Fab Foodie (17 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Flannel plus shower


https://www.brondell.com/gospa-travel-bidet/
Plus small towel/flannel to dry pristine botty :-)


----------



## Stephenite (17 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> https://www.brondell.com/gospa-travel-bidet/
> Plus small towel/flannel to dry pristine botty :-)


Are you out on the road? With that thing? ....Any excuse! You're an inate pepper


----------



## Wobblers (18 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I like the way you paint and contrast the two scenarios. Good work!
> 
> I understand the 600,000 fatality case, but less so with the other.
> 
> Since we all happily have similar population for ease of comparison, knowing hospitals in Hubei were and now Italy are on their knees with X0,000 infected over a period of a couple of months, what do you think is the likelihood that our precious nhs might "cope", achieving 1% fatality, with 40,000,000 infected even if spread over twice/thrice/N times as long, when we are talking about some 1000 times more infected?



You've hit the nail right on the head. The implicit assumption in my "better" case scenario is that the infection rate is slow enough that the NHS can cope.

At the current growth rate of infections, there is little prospect of the NHS coping. We've got to get that down -way down - in order to stand a chance. Again, we can put numbers to this. Let's assume the optimum scenario where 90% of those infected have such mild illnesses they don't even realise themselves. Of the remainder, 5% will need ventilator support (Chinese data, this fraction approaches 10% in Italy but we'll look at he best case). The NHS has 7000 respirators. Assuming that 5000 of those ventilators are available and a patient needs on average 2 weeks on one (data from China was that of htose who died, many were on ventilator support for 10-14 days). That means the NHS would have a capacity to cope with 2500 new severe cases per week. That in turn means 50,000 new cases per week. Herd immunity requires 4 million overt infections. At this rate, it'll take 18 months to reach the level of resistance required for herd immunity without the NHS collapsing under the strain. By my quick back-of -the-envelope calculations, we'd need about 50,000 ventilator places to cope, given the rapid increase in cases. That's just not feasible. I don't think the herd immunity idea will work.

I feel that the only chance is to require that pubs, clubs, cinemas and other public gatherings to be halted immediately. It looks like the government's also come to that conclusion, with Johnson's advice that we should now all avoid bars, cinemas and theaters etc. It's a start, but doesn't go far enough. Expect more stringent actions to follow in short order! I suspect that we'll see most pubs and clubs being closed by Monday and further restrictions before the end of next week. The one bright spot is that people are beginning to vote with their feet, and avoiding those places unbidden. That is probably the most helpful action any of us can do at present - drastically cut down all social interactions.

@DCLane I take your point that mortality will be lower with at risk groups self isolating. That's true, but few will be able to completely shut themselves off from society for 3 months or more, so the benefit will likely be less than what we hope.

This BBC article goes into this in more detail - the numbers are different (not surprising given my naively simplistic models) but the message is similar.


----------



## Wobblers (18 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> @McWobble I think the other consideration is whether other steps that will be taken will reduce the R0 sufficiently to make a dent in the numbers. Closing bars and restaurants for example, more social distancing.
> 
> What I don't understand is what is Spain and Italy's strategy? Are they hoping a lockdown stops transmission so most of the population never catch the virus or do they expect many millions to catch it and the lockdowns are a tool to flatten the curve and reduce the R0
> 
> Like you I would be concerned with a strategy to stop it in its tracks like China. We are at least 12 months from a vaccine. Can countries with high freedom of movement maintain a lockdown or semi lockdown for a year?



Good questions. I suspect that the intention is merely to reduce the outbreak to manageable proportions. The trouble is, this isn't a solution in the long run, as most of the population will remain vulnerable to this disease.

What is worrying me is not so much what's in the news but what isn't. We have heard almost nothing from Latin America, Africa, South and SE Asia. These are all areas with crowded slums - the perfect place for a major outbreak - and little to no health surveillance. South Africa has seen increasing cases and now is taking firm steps to get on top of things. This is not mirrored in rest of the continent.

My fear is that Covid-19 could easily take hold in some shanty town or favela and spread far and wide before anyone even realises. Given that coronavirus can spread without visible symptoms, it's likely that the infection would spread rapidly throughout the unfortunate host country, which would have little chance of coping, and go further, and silently, to reinfect other countries which through great efforts in containment and quarantine had dealt with their own outbreaks. I think it highly likely that many countries will have many outbreaks, not just one.

The best solution is a vaccine. An effective treatment regime might be another counter - the youtube video @marinyork linked to outlines some interesting potential treatments. An effective and simple treatment which keeps people out of ICU as well (so preventing the health services from becoming overwhelmed) as the reducing case mortality rate makes the herd immunity strategy workable. Though when I hear phrases such as "recombinant human ACE-2 receptors" i suspect that they won't be cheap...


----------



## Buck (18 Mar 2020)

An interesting analysis piece in The Telegraph looking at the data and predictions is here:-

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...-data-behind-government-coronavirus-lockdown/


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (18 Mar 2020)

You can read the full Imperial report that killed the CMO/CSA's ridiculous "mitigation" plan here.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

China has reported only a handful of new cases for the second day running.

I may be interpreting those figures incorrectly, but I wonder - if they continue - if the virus is going to fizzle out a lot faster than anyone is anticipating.

China is furthest along the virus outbreak curve.

The virus may also take its course whatever measures are adopted to combat it.

That contention will be reinforced if the likes of Italy and Iran follow a similar pattern.


----------



## Levo-Lon (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> China has reported only a handful of new cases for the second day running.
> 
> I may be interpreting those figures incorrectly, but I wonder - if they continue - if the virus is going to fizzle out a lot faster than anyone is anticipating.
> 
> ...



Encouraging, my view is a government wouldn't be so keen to offer billions unless it thought it was actually going t wiggle out of it, but looking like it will do everything looks good and relieves immediate anxiety and worry.. sort of

If by April 15 we are seeing a downward curve? Then maybe it will be over by mid May..
We're making sure all public gatherings are off the table ,but its fine to go to busy supermarkets 
Then we have medicle expers talking about 18mth for vaccine control?

Who knows


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Embarrassed to admit, i don’t cook. Don’t even have a freezer just now, just a fridge with small freezer compartment so I rely on the shops having fresh stuff as I just walk round a couple of times per week to get what I need.


you don't cook?
How's that work?
good time to learn.

in truth nothng to learn - very hard to totally ruin anything or make it inedible - i see it as experimenting)


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> China has reported only a handful of new cases for the second day running.
> 
> I may be interpreting those figures incorrectly, but I wonder - if they continue - if the virus is going to fizzle out a lot faster than anyone is anticipating.
> 
> ...


Do you think we can trust china though?
I wouldn't trust the chinese state an inch.
Appalling restriction of debate internally.
Mass control of the raw material of debate through tech.
Complete bullshit on what they have for decades termed "re-education".
They make the most appalling detention camps sound like a cross between a university and my fond childhood memories of "silver sands" caravan park.

China it seems to me exists in a state of alternative truth.

I'd rather watch Italy and other european countries for clues on the future path.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Do you think we can trust china though?
> I wouldn't trust the chinese state an inch.
> Appalling restriction of debate internally.
> Mass control of the raw material of debate through tech.
> ...



I agree with your remarks about China.

The bamboo curtain is still very much in existence when it comes to knowing what goes on internally, and what it's shielding is very likely not edifying.

But one can only make a judgment on what is known, even though that judgment must be a qualified one.

I agree with Levo that what's apparently happening in China is encouraging.

I also agree when he says our government will be hoping the virus will ease quickly once past its peak, thereby saving them from having to spend quite so many of the billions they announced yesterday.


----------



## PaulSB (18 Mar 2020)

Twilkes said:


> It wasn't coronavirus. The first UK case was detected in Chinese nationals at the end of January, the first 'internal' transmission at the end of February. If thousands of people had had it over Christmas they would have also been detected and current case numbers would have been much higher.


I'm not in a position to discuss this with you from a medical view. I don't know if you're qualified in someway or not.

I feel the crucial word in your response is "detected." From what I've read the understanding of where this virus came from is still limited. It was discovered in November and could well have travelled for sometime before the Wuhan situation arose.

The supporting argument I put forward is my wife is a highly experienced retired medical professional. I have been with her for 42 years, for her to state she had Coronavirus in late December without truly believing and having considered her symptoms is utterly and totally out of character. She was more unwell than I have seen in those 42 years.

I know of other people, one equally qualified, who feel the same way.


----------



## PaulSB (18 Mar 2020)

I know posters in here are keeping up to date with the news far more than me.

I'm not looking to begin a political debate, I simply want an answer which I can't find.

I presume following Brexit the UK is excluded from all EU actions and decisions? As a simple example EU borders are or will be closed to UK citizens just as, for example, an American or Chinese citizen?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

itboffin said:


> i would also say and dont hate me for this but toilet rolls arent the only way to clean ones under carriage, think terry nappies ....just saying




Well, in days of old, when knights were bold and paper wasn't invented...


----------



## Venod (18 Mar 2020)

I haven't checked these facts but if true its good news, its from my facebook feed.

📣📣 HOW ABOUT SOME GOOD NEWS!? 📣📣
📌 China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
📌 Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.
📌 Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.
📌 A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.
📌 Apple reopens all 42 china stores.
📌 Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.
📌 Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.
📌 Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.
📌 Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.
📌 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.
📌 A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.
📌 A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.
📌 Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.
📌 All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.
📌 Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
Above credit to: Michael Mathis 🙏
So it's not ALL bad news friends. Let's care for each other and stay focused on safety of those most vulnerable while continuing to make the best of our days. This too shall pass! I challenge you to spread the good news!
**If you google the above statements, they prove to be true**


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I know posters in here are keeping up to date with the news far more than me.
> 
> I'm not looking to begin a political debate, I simply want an answer which I can't find.
> 
> I presume following Brexit the UK is excluded from all EU actions and decisions? As a simple example EU borders are or will be closed to UK citizens just as, for example, an American or Chinese citizen?


as i understand it we are in a transition period so all still applies.
EHIC card still valid etc.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I know posters in here are keeping up to date with the news far more than me.
> 
> I'm not looking to begin a political debate, I simply want an answer which I can't find.
> 
> I presume following Brexit the UK is excluded from all EU actions and decisions? As a simple example EU borders are or will be closed to UK citizens just as, for example, an American or Chinese citizen?



This BBC story says UK citizens will be unaffected, possibly because we haven't fully left yet.

There's also the advice of our Foreign Office to consider.

It trumps any EU decision inasmuch as it says we should avoid all overseas travel unless essential.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51927790


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I'm not in a position to discuss this with you from a medical view. I don't know if you're qualified in someway or not.
> 
> I feel the crucial word in your response is "detected." From what I've read the understanding of where this virus came from is still limited. It was discovered in November and could well have travelled for sometime before the Wuhan situation arose.
> 
> ...


to clarify, what I had was clearly no way as severe as what your wife had. And may very well not have been the virus anyway.
But I agree entirely with your logic.
Since we didn't know until very recently that this thing even existed, and the symptoms for some time would have been interpreted as being something else, it stands to reason that the first cases would be before what is currently appreciated.
Then add in that China covers stuff up and did initially.
and global air travel.
london is full of chinese students and tourists - lots arriving every day in normal times.
Whether it actually originated in china at all.
I see it as akin to serial killing sprees - takes time to see that cases are linked - you need to track back.

I am pretty sure that once we have got through this the first case will be before, very posibly well before, what is now currently logged.


----------



## oldfatfool (18 Mar 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I'm not in a position to discuss this with you from a medical view. I don't know if you're qualified in someway or not.
> 
> I feel the crucial word in your response is "detected." From what I've read the understanding of where this virus came from is still limited. It was discovered in November and could well have travelled for sometime before the Wuhan situation arose.
> 
> ...


Wouldn't be at all surprised if it hadn't been about for years and just this latest mutation as caused all the problems.


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> It trumps any EU decision inasmuch as it says we should avoid all overseas travel unless essential.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51927790



As a master of words pale rider care to substitite something for the "t" word?


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> I haven't checked these facts but if true its good news, its from my facebook feed.
> 
> 📣📣 HOW ABOUT SOME GOOD NEWS!? 📣📣
> 📌 China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
> ...



Probably a bit too early to wash our hands to this tune, but there certainly are encouraging signs.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iABFZGzEjY


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Stephenite said:


> Are you out on the road? With that thing? ....Any excuse! You're an inate pepper


Only sometimes, decent hotels have bidets 😊


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> China it seems to me exists in a state of alternative truth.


See also UK and US (and plenty of others too)
Two weeks ago Johnson claimed he'd been shaking hands with Corona patients, now he's looking utterly panic striken when Peston asks him why the government are offering loans not bailouts, and by the end of the month the virus bill will pass bestowing enormous new powers on the state for two years.
Around three weeks ago Trump was saying that it was a hoax, then that they had 15 cases all getting better and everything was under control, now he says he takes no responsibility.
I don't disagree with your critique of Chinese rule, but you don't have to look very far from home to find bullshitting politicians or those looking to put into law potentially draconian measures.


----------



## Mo1959 (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> you don't cook?
> How's that work?
> good time to learn.
> 
> in truth nothng to learn - very hard to totally ruin anything or make it inedible - i see it as experimenting)


Basically cereal or porridge for breakfast, sandwich or cold pasta for lunch and a ready meal for tea. Don't see the point of buying loads of different ingredients when I'm just on my own.


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

itboffin said:


> i would also say and dont hate me for this but toilet rolls arent the only way to clean ones under carriage, think terry nappies ....just saying


I've got three shells.


----------



## PaulSB (18 Mar 2020)

@Blue Hills @Pale Rider - thank you. The concern, well thought really, in my mind is fresh food supplies. It seems this terrible situation is going to last for a long, long time. I spent my working life in horticulture and know and understand the intricacies of moving fresh produce from production site to market. It was, for me, a main plank of reasons to remain in the EU.

We import 50% of our food, 30% from the EU, and I'm concerned about the situation in, say, 2-3 months time. Trucking tomatoes from Spain to the UK will be interesting - presuming someone picks them.

I'm fortunate to have a large allotment. I'm looking hard at my plans and how I shall vary them.


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

I think it’s a bit premature to say that India has successfully treated Covid19 with a range of antivirals. No clinical trials have been completed. This one case is anecdotal. As I understand it, trials in the UK, EU and US are only just being designed. Sorry to dampen that piece of optimism.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> As a master of words pale rider care to substitite something for the "t" word?



Let's leave the Chump alone for once.

I'm bound to observe he was widely flamed on here and elsewhere for his ban on inbound travel.

Yet within days lots of other countries were doing the same.


----------



## PaulSB (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> to clarify, what I had was clearly no way as severe as what your wife had. And may very well not have been the virus anyway.
> But I agree entirely with your logic.
> Since we didn't know until very recently that this thing even existed, and the symptoms for some time would have been interpreted as being something else, it stands to reason that the first cases would be before what is currently appreciated.
> Then add in that China covers stuff up and did initially.
> ...


Thank you. You've done an excellent job in expressing the thinking in our house and why I'm absolutely confident in what my wife says and believes - and that isn't always the case!! 😄


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> See also UK and US (and plenty of others too)
> Two weeks ago Johnson claimed he'd been shaking hands with Corona patients, now he's looking utterly panic striken when Peston asks him why the government are offering loans not bailouts, and by the end of the month the virus bill will pass bestowing enormous new powers on the state for two years.
> Around three weeks ago Trump was saying that it was a hoax, then that they had 15 cases all getting better and everything was under control, now he says he takes no responsibility.
> I don't disagree with your critique of Chinese rule, but you don't have to look very far from home to find bullshitting politicians or those looking to put into law potentially draconian measures.


sorry - am no fan of boris but you can't put the UK in the same camp as China. No comparison. In china we wouldn't even be having this exchange. And if we somehow managed it we could look forward to a knock on the door. And a bit of ever so friendly re-education.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> China has reported only a handful of new cases for the second day running.
> 
> I may be interpreting those figures incorrectly, but I wonder - if they continue - if the virus is going to fizzle out a lot faster than anyone is anticipating.
> 
> ...





Levo-Lon said:


> Encouraging, my view is a government wouldn't be so keen to offer billions unless it thought it was actually going t wiggle out of it, but looking like it will do everything looks good and relieves immediate anxiety and worry.. sort of
> 
> If by April 15 we are seeing a downward curve? Then maybe it will be over by mid May..
> We're making sure all public gatherings are off the table ,but its fine to go to busy supermarkets
> ...





Pale Rider said:


> I agree with your remarks about China.
> 
> The bamboo curtain is still very much in existence when it comes to knowing what goes on internally, and what it's shielding is very likely not edifying.
> 
> ...





Venod said:


> I haven't checked these facts but if true its good news, its from my facebook feed.
> 
> 📣📣 HOW ABOUT SOME GOOD NEWS!? 📣📣
> 📌 China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
> ...



Likewise; looking for positives too - the Italy new cases trend was reducing according to the BBC yesterday; hopefully this will continue today.

Whilst this situation does need to be taken seriously my view is that social media is as bad as the Fourth Estate - it seems to naturally focus on gloom and doom which is understandable if people are concerned about their health and, probably more to the point, their immediate financial future.

I've been in touch with a number of people who are in an absolutely shocking state mentally, these are not people who I would normally see as overt worriers/panickers, and they are purely responding to all the bad news in the press. Interestingly (?) 3 of the 4 people/families who are 'in a state' are glued to rolling news feeds in their homes.

Maybe some advice should be along the lines of be aware, stay safe but do things to take your mind off of the news for at least some of the day.

Maybe CC should have a CV Good News thread although we've probably got too many CV threads already .


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Only sometimes, decent hotels have bidets 😊


But if I use the bidet instead of loo paper, where will I chill my beers?


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> But if I use the bidet instead of loo paper, where will I chill my beers?


Tsk, the spa bath....


----------



## Mo1959 (18 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Likewise; looking for positives too - the Italy new cases trend was reducing according to the BBC yesterday; hopefully this will continue today.
> 
> Whilst this situation does need to be taken seriously my view is that social media is as bad as the Fourth Estate - it seems to naturally focus on gloom and doom which is understandable if people are concerned about their health and, probably more to the point, their immediate financial future.
> 
> ...


I've been trying to distance myself from it a bit. I agree our media seems to love to overhype everything these days.


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Tsk, the spa bath....


The Prof usually fills that with bottles of Sauvignon


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I know posters in here are keeping up to date with the news far more than me.
> 
> I'm not looking to begin a political debate, I simply want an answer which I can't find.
> 
> I presume following Brexit the UK is excluded from all EU actions and decisions? As a simple example EU borders are or will be closed to UK citizens just as, for example, an American or Chinese citizen?


One quietly adopted measure that I read yesterday (but can't find now - I'll keep looking ) was that the UK has been counted as being part of the EU for buying medicines through joint procurement. This appears to have been a pragmatic mutually-beneficial decision, something we've seen little of over the last few years of splendid UK self isolation. Technically the UK doesn't appear to be a signatory to the joint procurement group though and the agreement runs beyond the earliest cut off date.

Edit: I haven't found it yet but this gives the background: *https://www.ft.com/content/c87393c8-6791-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3 *(though there's usually a paywall, I'd just cleared my cookies cache and the whole article appeared behind the I accept FT cookies panel.)


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## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Basically cereal or porridge for breakfast, sandwich or cold pasta for lunch and a ready meal for tea. Don't see the point of buying loads of different ingredients when I'm just on my own.


sounds like a distinct lack of veg in that diet mo. 
Good to have lots of ingredents - variety of veg and raw materials - you can then rustle up lots of stuff. 
I'd ditch the daily ready meal.
I'm no gourmet cook - I take the view that 20 mins is absolute max for cooking and much of that is stuff left to bubble.
If you cook pretty sure your health will benefit - and will be cheaper.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Likewise; looking for positives too - the Italy new cases trend was reducing according to the BBC yesterday; hopefully this will continue today.
> 
> Whilst this situation does need to be taken seriously my view is that social media is as bad as the Fourth Estate - it seems to naturally focus on gloom and doom which is understandable if people are concerned about their health and, probably more to the point, their immediate financial future.
> 
> ...



Spot on - particularly about another ruddy virus thread.

Bad news has always travelled faster than good, social media and rolling news channels have merely amplified that.


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Let's leave the Chump alone for once.
> 
> I'm bound to observe he was widely flamed on here and elsewhere for his ban on inbound travel.
> 
> Yet within days lots of other countries were doing the same.


it wasn't the inbound travel he was slagged of for pale rider.


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## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The Prof usually fills that with bottles of Sauvignon


Blimey  I usually use Radox!


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## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

PS mo - I recommend getting a steamer - the simple sort you put on top of a pan of water.
Veg keeps for ages in a well chilled fridge.
Turnips (will give you an idea of my gourmet level) last for ages.


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## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> it wasn't the inbound travel he was slagged of for pale rider.



Quite, he was slagged off for just being Trump by the usual suspects who bellow abuse at the mere mention of his name.

Pardon me for focussing on the message, not the messenger.


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## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Likewise; looking for positives too - the Italy new cases trend was reducing according to the BBC yesterday; hopefully this will continue today.

















Do you not think Italy finally achieving a near total lockdown has something to do with the drop in new cases?


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## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> sorry - am no fan of boris but you can't put the UK in the same camp as China. No comparison. In china we wouldn't even be having this exchange. And if we somehow managed it we could look forward to a knock on the door. And a bit of ever so friendly re-education.


Which is why I quoted one specific sentence from your post re alternative truth politicians/governments/states.


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## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Quite, he was slagged off for just being Trump by the usual suspects who bellow abuse at the mere mention of his name.
> 
> Pardon me for focussing on the message, not the messenger.


Have you actually listened to what he's been saying?


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## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Blimey  I usually use Radox!


The Prof has looked at the evidence base and Sauvignon is more effective.


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## PaulSB (18 Mar 2020)

I thought people might be interested to know of the actions taking place in my small Lancashire village. I've removed contact details for privacy. I'm helping with the house to house leafleting later today.

*Hello! If you are self-isolating, we can help!*
_ 
There are numerous people living in ****** who have offered to help if you are affected by the COVID-19 virus and need assistance. This may be because you or your household are self-isolating, because people who normally visit you are now unable to, or because your job means you will now be working longer and unsociable hours for example health care workers.

We are creating a database, pairing offers of help, with people who need it.

Examples of help include:
Shopping ~ Urgent Supplies ~ Collections ~ Dog walking ~ Or even if you would just like a chat_
​_Just *call*, *text* or *email* and we will do our best to help you as soon as possible

My name is ********** - I live at **********
Telephone ***********
Email ************ _
_*** If you are not affected by the restrictions and are able 
to volunteer to help in any way, please contact us ***_​


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## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

PaulSB said:


> @Blue Hills @Pale Rider - thank you. The concern, well thought really, in my mind is fresh food supplies. It seems this terrible situation is going to last for a long, long time. I spent my working life in horticulture and know and understand the intricacies of moving fresh produce from production site to market. It was, for me, a main plank of reasons to remain in the EU.
> 
> We import 50% of our food, 30% from the EU, and I'm concerned about the situation in, say, 2-3 months time. Trucking tomatoes from Spain to the UK will be interesting - presuming someone picks them.
> 
> I'm fortunate to have a large allotment. I'm looking hard at my plans and how I shall vary them.



Worth remembering most travel virus travel restrictions apply to the movement of people.

Goods are specifically excluded.

Regulations around the importation of food post Brexit are still to be decided, but we continue as we are at least for this year.

The virus means the trade deal deadline may not be able to be met.

In those circumstances, I think an extension to enable a deal to be struck is more likely than crashing out.


----------



## steve292 (18 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Who still reads newspapers? I’m not wiping my bum on my iPad!


Rupert Murdoch produces a wide range of missives suitable for wiping one's arse with.


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## Mo1959 (18 Mar 2020)

At least nature has received a bit of respite due to the shutdowns.

https://www.esquireme.com/content/4...n-to-the-venice-canals-as-humans-self-isolate


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## Julia9054 (18 Mar 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I thought people might be interested to know of the actions taking place in my small Lancashire village. I've removed contact details for privacy. I'm helping with the house to house leafleting later today.
> 
> *Hello! If you are self-isolating, we can help!*
> _
> ...


My town has something similar. Been a bit worried about my parents - fit and well but 78 and 82. Unable to get a supermarket delivery until 7th April. Made some enquires and found a group local to them. A volunteer has offered to help (I am a bit far away and work in a school so likely to be carrying all sorts). 
My mum had declined this kind lady‘s offer and has decided to go to the supermarket herself this morning. Sigh - what can you do!


----------



## SpokeyDokey (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 508956
> 
> View attachment 508957
> 
> ...



I don't feel qualified to comment on that and at the moment I'm not sure there is any benefit for me to start debating the pro's and con's of the approach taken by different countries.

I'm getting my take on things from this tracker site as well as the Beeb. Scroll down for selected country stat's.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

France which has had a hard lockdown policy is still in the rapid new case rise phase so what to make of that?

Oddly the US has reported for the 18th March a very low increase in new cases - too early to comment but it's better than stat's heading in the other direction.

Not suggesting you but there will be many people who are just not interested in any positives at the moment unless it immediately affects their _own_ situation positively - hence the doom focussed media/social media comments.


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> My town has something similar. Been a bit worried about my parents - fit and well but 78 and 82. Unable to get a supermarket delivery until 7th April. Made some enquires and found a group local to them. A volunteer has offered to help (I am a bit far away and work in a school so likely to be carrying all sorts).
> My mum had declined this kind lady‘s offer and has decided to go to the supermarket herself this morning. Sigh - what can you do!


Are they able to get to the shops or are they avoiding going out altogether?
Some supermarkets are introducing an hours trading for the elderly and vulnerable, Sainsburys did yesterday so more will follow suit.


----------



## numbnuts (18 Mar 2020)

Dover is still quite busy


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## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> Don't know, what form does a virtual curfew take?
> What are the pros and cons?


I am about to find out. I printed my "attestation" and ticked shopping for essentials, I'll see if I can get a couple of photos in the shop. The supermarket I often use is just on the edge of town and quite near to a big road police station. If there is going to be a "controle" it will be there. 
Basically the French government said that people had ignored the pleas for them to spread out and to stop gathering in groups so the government decided to slap them awake. 
The list of cons is endless but had already began mounting after 12 million pupils and students went home, before the ban on all but essential travel.
The pros are unknown as yet, I think the idea is to buy time and not follow Italy. I can go out on my own to exercise, get my shopping in and if I had sick or elderly relatives go on care visits for them. People can still travel to and from work and take dogs for walks, on their own. Visit the vet, the car repairer and the Doctor. That is about the scope of what is tickable on the form.
Bear in mind that from announcement to implementation was one day, quite a shocker for many. A grainy photo I took in a smaller supermarket in Descartes on Monday seems to suggest that the big chains had already received a briefing on how things where to proceed. Note the blue markings on the run in to the checkout, people did pay attention.






The checkout on the left would normally have about three people waiting to unload their baskets and trolleys, the markings 2 metres apart stretched half way along the aisles.


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## Julia9054 (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Are they able to get to the shops or are they avoiding going out altogether?
> Some supermarkets are introducing an hours trading for the elderly and vulnerable, Sainsburys did yesterday so more will follow suit.


I would like them to avoid going out altogether. My mum feels differently! Booths have advised customers other than the elderly to stay away 9.30 - 11.30 so she is going then


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## SpokeyDokey (18 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Dover is still quite busy



Kendal looking fine too.

At a slight tangent...

Re media pictures: I am reminded of the Foot & Mouth outbreak in the Lake District in 2001 when our local paper reported that Kendal town centre was deserted and it showed a picture to that effect - totally devoid of people and traffic.

Well, it must've been taken very early in the morning as on the day it was taken we were in town at 9.15am for a Specsavers appointment and the place looked as it normally did.

Make of that what you will.  Media


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## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Dover is still quite busy



When I nipped out to the chemist yesterday it was business as usual in terms of traffic.

Which means every journey usually made in Sunderland is an essential one.

Or, perish the thought, car drivers are being their usual selfish selves and ignoring the government advice.


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## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I would like them to avoid going out altogether. My mum feels differently! Booths have advised customers other than the elderly to stay away 9.30 - 11.30 so she is going then


Sainsburys are also introducing priority delivery for the elderly and vulnerable too, this is the message;

_Email from Sainsburys CEO Mike Coupe:
I wrote to you last week to tell you about some of the steps we are taking to support increased demand for food and other essential items.
After I wrote to you last week, many of you replied. You wrote to share your concerns about our elderly and vulnerable customers and to ask if we can do more to restrict the number of items each person can buy. I have listened to feedback from you and from Sainsbury's colleagues across the country and wanted to share some of the extra steps we are taking to make sure everyone has access to the items that they need:
A number of you suggested that we reserve an hour in stores for elderly and vulnerable customers. In response to this request, we will set aside the first hour in every supermarket this Thursday 19th March, for elderly and vulnerable customers. I hope that you can respect this decision and will work with us as we try our best to help those that need it the most. If you or an elderly family member, friend or neighbour would like to shop during this hour, please check online for your local supermarket opening hours.
We will also help elderly and vulnerable customers access food online. From Monday 23rd March, our online customers who are over 70 years of age or have a disability will have priority access to online delivery slots. We will contact these customers in the coming days with more details.
For any online customer who can travel to our stores, from Monday 23rd March, we will operate an expanded 'click and collect' service. We are significantly increasing the number of collection sites across the country over the coming days in preparation for this. Customers can place their order online as usual and pick it up from a collection point in the store car park. We believe this will also work for people who are self-isolating.
As we work to feed the nation, we are also focusing all of our efforts on getting as much food and other essential items from our suppliers, into our warehouses and onto shelves as we possibly can. We still have enough food for everyone - if we all just buy what we need for us and our families.
To help us get more essential items onto the shelves, from this Thursday 19th March, we will be closing our cafes and our meat, fish and pizza counters in supermarkets. This means we can free up warehouse and lorry capacity for products that customers really need. It will also free up time for our store colleagues to focus on keeping the shelves as well stocked as possible.
I mentioned last week that we had put limits on a very small number of products. Following feedback from our customers and from our store colleagues, we have decided to put restrictions on a larger number of products. From tomorrow, Wednesday 18th March, customers will be able to buy a maximum of three of any grocery product and a maximum of two on the most popular products including toilet paper, soap and UHT milk. We have enough food coming into the system, but are limiting sales so that it stays on shelves for longer and can be bought by a larger numbers of customers.
Finally, I wanted to end by saying a huge thank you to Sainsbury's colleagues across the business. Everyone is working flat out in difficult circumstances to do their best to serve our customers. If you're able to say thank you to them when you see them, I know they would hugely appreciate it.
Best wishes
Mike_


Please note I haven't confirmed it but I think it's genuine.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

Confirmed by BBC - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51941987


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## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The Prof has looked at the evidence base and Sauvignon is more effective.


Probably double-blind and peer-reviewed! Well you can't argue with science....


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Confirmed by BBC - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51941987


Ah, thank you, I'd seen it on a Facebook local news post, yours is a _little_ more reliable.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> France which has had a hard lockdown policy is still in the rapid new case rise phase so what to make of that?


No this only started late last week with the announcement of the schools and colleges closure to begin Monday. Then on Sunday after seeing big groups of sun worshippers gathering in Parisian parks the government closed the parks. Only on Tuesday did the real restrictions kick in after the announcement of travel restrictions. In 14 days they will know if they have bought some time.


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## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Dover is still quite busy


What the hell are are you doing in Dover?


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## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> What the hell are are you doing in Dover?


Booze cruise?


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Ach! Wasted several sheets of A4 and some printer ink!

View: https://twitter.com/Gendarmerie/status/1239863846560505857?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1239863846560505857&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.01net.com%2Fastuces%2Fcomment-remplir-et-signer-l-attestation-de-deplacement-derogatoire-sur-iphone-ou-android-1876604.html


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## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Ach! Wasted several sheets of A4 and some printer ink!


My internet connection is a little troublesome of late so this line sat for a second before the tweet loaded, I thought for a moment you had had to resort to desperate measures.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I can see the focus on the jury, because it's the one part of the process where keeping your distance from others is very difficult.
> 
> Other hearings can take place in reasonable safety.
> 
> I've no inside knowledge on this one, but it looks to me inevitable England and Wales will have to follow suit.



Trials due to last more than three days postponed in England and Wales.

From the decision, we can infer the Court Service thinks juries can be managed safely on a day to day basis.

What they are concerned about is a trial could be torpedoed if a juror's position changes overnight and they are forced into self isolation.

That could happen after day one or day two, but it becomes more likely the longer a trial proceeds, so the administrators are playing percentages.

Another point to bear in mind is a trial can already proceed with 11 or 10 jurors if one or two fall ill or die.

Thus it is very likely a trial of three days or fewer will complete one way or another.

Three days or fewer also accounts for the majority of trials, which means there will be a minimum of disruption.

Other hearings have been ordered to proceed as normal, albeit with increased use of telephone and video links.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...r-three-days-postponed-coronavirus-fears.html


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Someone's got their head screwed on.


View: https://twitter.com/ChronicOG_2nd/status/1239924916734083072?s=20


----------



## Levo-Lon (18 Mar 2020)

Member of staff, mother works at Sainsbury's, has said they will be limiting customer flow to 20 at a time
..queues will be like something out of the 30s recession..I hate queueing


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

For anyone that might need it.


View: https://twitter.com/Alanpickard20/status/1239836956781142016?s=20


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## numbnuts (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> What the hell are are you doing in Dover?


Counting migrants  46 since Monday all free of covid thank God, but it is early days yet


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## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

The Court Service thinks jury trials can proceed safely, but a cautious juror might not.

This pic of a jury box is fairly typical.

Slightly more elbow room than on a train, but all the seats would be occupied so there's no chance of finding extra space.

A juror would also be expected to sit in his seat for a couple of hours at a time.

Would you be happy being a juror in the current climate?


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Trials due to last more than three days postponed in England and Wales.
> 
> From the decision, we can infer the Court Service thinks juries can be managed safely on a day to day basis.
> 
> ...


It sounds to me rather like saying you can still go to the pub but only have one pint rather than two.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> It sounds to me rather like saying you can still go to the pub but only have one pint rather than two.



I suppose it is because by limiting trials at all the Court Service is accepting there is a risk.

But they are saying we expect you to take that risk for a short time rather than a longer one.


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Counting migrants  46 since Monday all free of covid thank God, but it is early days yet


Why are you counting Migrants in Dover? I thought you lived 'up north'?


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I suppose it is because by limiting trials at all the Court Service is accepting there is a risk.
> 
> But they are saying we expect you to take that risk for a short time rather than a longer one.


Absolutely, I suppose the question is whether we get to the point where they say we can not expect you to take any risk. What are the penalties for juror no shows?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Agreed.
> Have now moved to a bog-roll free system for home.



Next doors garden at night? Then wipe on their bush?


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The Court Service thinks jury trials can proceed safely, but a cautious juror might not.
> 
> This pic of a jury box is fairly typical.
> 
> ...


I would not. I would feel it was like a sentence in itself, if I was compelled to I think I would prefer to be penalised. On the end on the back row with arms folded at all times looks like the least worst seat.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Mar 2020)

Small company, need to work from home, don’t have the infrastructure to cope? Cloudflare have made this option free to small businesses till 1st September.

https://blog.cloudflare.com/cloudfl...mall-businesses-during-coronavirus-emergency/


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Well, in days of old, when knights were bold and paper wasn't invented...




I know a very rude version of that little ditty.No I dare not repeat it on here


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Probably double-blind and peer-reviewed! Well you can't argue with science....


I had the intervention (loads of wine) she had the placebo (water). And I ended up double blinded and staggering.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (18 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Basically cereal or porridge for breakfast, sandwich or cold pasta for lunch and a ready meal for tea. Don't see the point of buying loads of different ingredients when I'm just on my own.



May I recommend a cookery book from the Goddess of The Kitchen, Delia Smith?

It’s a simple book with easy recipes designed for single people and every one is excellent. As usual, Delia’s recipes just work, there’s never any doubt so long as you do what’s written. But the great thing about it is that all of the recipes are scaleable; if you have someone coming for dinner you simply multiply the ingredients by the number of people coming. Recipes are also designed so that if, say, one recipe calls for half a lemon, there will be another recipe that needs to use the other half. You should have zero waste using this book.

The dishes look and taste amazing but are so simple to make that even I couldn’t fudge it up.

Take a look on Amazon where you can get a good quality 2nd hand copy (it’s from 1987) for under £3 delivered. It’s called One is Fun, see 
View: https://www.amazon.co.uk/One-Coronet-Books-Delia-Smith/dp/0340389591


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## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Absolutely, I suppose the question is whether we get to the point where they say we can not expect you to take any risk. What are the penalties for juror no shows?



Variable, depending on enforcement will and capability.

The letter asking you to attend is a court summons, so ultimately you could be imprisoned for failing to comply with it.

I've seen reluctant jurors arrested, kept in custody usually only for a few hours, then put before the judge for a public ticking off.

The judge usually regards that process as a sufficient penalty.



randynewmanscat said:


> I would not. I would feel it was like a sentence in itself, if I was compelled to I think I would prefer to be penalised. On the end on the back row with arms folded at all times looks like the least worst seat.



Leaving aside the virus, I wouldn't be keen on doing it.

A long trial in particular would feel like a sentence.

Having said that, the thought of being locked up would make me choose serving as the least worst option.


----------



## flake99please (18 Mar 2020)

400 units of 48 pack toilet rolls handed to customers in the first 10 minutes of trading at Costco this morning (limited to 1 per customer). People arriving 2 hours before store opening time. The problem seems to be getting worse.


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## alicat (18 Mar 2020)

Did I miss the memo in which @Mo1959 said she wanted tips on how to start cooking or eating differently?


----------



## steve292 (18 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Next doors garden at night? Then wipe on their bush?


I did that, but she wasn't to pleased.


----------



## marinyork (18 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Not suggesting you but there will be many people who are just not interested in any positives at the moment unless it immediately affects their _own_ situation positively - hence the doom focussed media/social media comments.



There are positives from Italy.

1) If you're in a small less infected area that's a less densely populated area and have mass testing you can get the rate of infection down to virtually zero. Well duh says a lot of people.

2) If you're in a province of Italy that has fewer cases lockdown 3 + set of measures no.5 is apparently reducing the number of new cases and the deaths in provinces aren't too bad (it's a bit too early to start jumping up and down).

I'll post in another message, but that's the good news from Italy, the bad news more than outweighs it.


----------



## Levo-Lon (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Booze cruise?



Paracetamol Cruise more like


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> I know a very rude version of that little ditty.No I dare not repeat it on here


The one with the telephone poles?


----------



## Mo1959 (18 Mar 2020)

alicat said:


> Did I miss the memo in which @Mo1959 said she wanted tips on how to start cooking or eating differently?


You did. Just back with some bread, milk and tubs of soup and ready meals. Lol. I did buy bananas


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Sainsburys are also introducing priority delivery for the elderly and vulnerable too, this is the message;
> 
> _Email from Sainsburys CEO Mike Coupe:
> I wrote to you last week to tell you about some of the steps we are taking to support increased demand for food and other essential items.
> ...



I don't have an issue with them or others going this stuff but the issue is who is going to police it ? What do they define elderly, vulnerable and disabled ? Are they going to get really hard line about it and your going to have prove it? Or is it going to be so adhoc that it will get a bit silly.


----------



## marinyork (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I don't have an issue with them or others going this stuff but the issue is who is going to police it ? What do they define elderly, vulnerable and disabled ? Are they going to get really hard line about it and your going to have prove it? Or is it going to be so adhoc that it will get a bit silly.



Knowing Sainsbury's it'll be interpreted in the widest possible sense and ad hoc. Depending on the demographics of the store this'll work more or less all right in some areas and be some problems in others.

I agree with the sentiments of others about defining individual groups (or the idea that older age groups of shoppers can't be aggressive is misguided), but it's better than what went before.

I think the company might be surprised of the reaction to the on-line offer. There are some very real safety issues around delivery too that I reckon head office won't have considered as they tend to think home delivery goes by procedure.

It's soap and paracetamol I'm worried about. Not been able to get hold of any soap for a two weeks and that's what many others have told me when discussions have gone beyond bog roll, soup, chicken and so on.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

NHS advice on paracetamol and ibuprofen issued this morning following all the social media crap about this.


----------



## Hugh Manatee (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I've got three shells.



Try swearing at them!

In fact, from the same film we should all be greeting each over with that no contact high five!


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Knowing Sainsbury's it'll be interpreted in the widest possible sense and ad hoc. Depending on the demographics of the store this'll work more or less all right in some areas and be some problems in others.
> 
> I agree with the sentiments of others about defining individual groups (or the idea that older age groups of shoppers can't be aggressive is misguided), but it's better than what went before.
> 
> ...



Online pharmacy stock of paracetamol was still holding up a few days days ago we not some just fine.


----------



## Beebo (18 Mar 2020)

Glastonbury has been cancelled. 

Filming is cancelled on Eastenders. 

But worse still Ant and Dec have to do their Saturday show without a live audience! 😲


----------



## Mo1959 (18 Mar 2020)

I'm slightly surprised by Churches closing. For all that actually attend these days, people could sit well apart. I would have thought the support would have outweighed any risk, but I suppose they would maybe have to do a deep clean after each service or something? I'm just back from the supermarket which was busy and people all milling together in close proximity chatting quite happily so it doesn't make a lot of sense.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

View: https://www.instagram.com/p/B93rjfcAbWO/?utm_source=ig_embed


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Kendal looking fine too.
> 
> At a slight tangent...
> 
> ...




I had intend to visit the Lakes during that outbreak camping in the Langdale valley but the camp site had to close due to the restrictions Decided to go and stay at a B&B in Keswick where I had stayed on several occasions.,I was the only person staying there.

I traveled up on my motorcycle.Had several trips out.Roads were deserted. Went to a couple of cafes.outi in the country.Ordered carrot cake and coffee on both occasions i queried the bill as not charged for the coffee.I was told I was the first customer they had seen fora fortnight.The coffee was a thank you.Small gesture much appreciated.


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> The one with the telephone poles?


No it was brick wall


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://www.instagram.com/p/B93rjfcAbWO/?utm_source=ig_embed



Leith gin are also on the case: https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman....spends-production-make-hand-sanitiser-2482240


----------



## SpokeyDokey (18 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> I had intend to visit the Lakes during that outbreak camping in the Langdale valley but the camp site had to close due to the restrictions Decided to go and stay at a B&B in Keswick where I had stayed on several occasions.,I was the only person staying there.
> 
> I traveled up on my motorcycle.Had several trips out.Roads were deserted. Went to a couple of cafes.outi in the country.Ordered carrot cake and coffee on both occasions i queried the bill as not charged for the coffee.I was told I was the first customer they had seen fora fortnight.The coffee was a thank you.Small gesture much appreciated.



It was a real pain with the Fells all closed - we had to take our dog all the way to Millom from Nr Kendal for a good off the leash session on the beach. Lots of cafes, B&B's etc really struggled then but the majority made it through ok.


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

Just been watching BBC news.Super Market stores staff being abused by some customers abusing staff for not filling shelves quickly enough.Church toilets broken into and all the toilet rolls stolen.
I despair in the current attitudes of sod you Jack I’m alright of some people.

Some thing more positive A leaflet through the door from someone who lives on are road and is part of a local volunteer group offering help with shopping.Transport to doctors.Clollecting medication.
Rang her and thanked her for here kind offer and that at present we are managing 

Not all people as some in this country.


----------



## BrumJim (18 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> Glastonbury has been cancelled.
> 
> Filming is cancelled on Eastenders.
> 
> But worse still Ant and Dec have to do their Saturday show without a live audience! 😲



Ironically, so has Holby City, Casualty and Doctors.

Could have been an interesting plot twist for Doctors. My son's surgery refused to let him turn up yesterday, so we did the whole thing via Whatsapp. Seemed to work fine. It could be the future.


----------



## Mo1959 (18 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Just been watching BBC news.Super Market stores staff being abused by some customers abusing staff for not filling shelves quickly enough.Church toilets broken into and all the toilet rolls stolen.
> I despair in the current attitudes of sod you Jack I’m alright of some people.
> 
> Some thing more positive A leaflet through the door from someone who lives on are road and is part of a local volunteer group offering help with shopping.Transport to doctors.Clollecting medication.
> ...


We have this scheme started too. Little leaflets that can be popped through doors. Personally, I prefer to speak to my own immediate neighbours as they already know and trust me so would be more likely to ask for help rather than someone they don't know.


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> We have this scheme started too. Little leaflets that can be popped through doors. Personally, I prefer to speak to my own immediate neighbours as they already know and trust me so would be more likely to ask for help rather than someone they don't know.


 

Yes it is difficult for particularly older people who can never be sure the person at the door doesn’t have ulterior motives


----------



## Levo-Lon (18 Mar 2020)

just been to QD store for work.
They have toilet rolls and kitchen towels. 

But their letting the selfish nasties buy loads ...this has to stop


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Hugh Manatee said:


> Try swearing at them!
> 
> In fact, from the same film we should all be greeting each over with that no contact high five!


I'm just glad somebody got it!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

My wife uses https://nextdoor.co.uk/

It's an app that links up people in neighbourhoods. Ours has seen a lot of posts - dozens - from people offering to fetch groceries, cook, make breakfasts for kids.

I've always been of the opinion that most people are good and kind but don't often get the chance to show it. Now is their opportunity.


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> It was a real pain with the Fells all closed - we had to take our dog all the way to Millom from Nr Kendal for a good off the leash session on the beach. Lots of cafes, B&B's etc really struggled then but the majority made it through ok.



Good to hear.Lake district has been blighted by enough problems the last few years.


----------



## snorri (18 Mar 2020)

I was at first amused at the description of BJ when answering a question on the financial aspects of this bug that's going around, then thought to myself, Hey! This is the guy who is meant to be running the country.
.
Quote "A look of outright terror before breaking out in a jarring bout of blustering incoherence"


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Next doors garden at night? Then wipe on their bush?



Dock leaves used to be a good source in an emergency as a a#### wipe Assuming you happen to be out in the countryside and you can find them ar this time of the year.


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

steve292 said:


> I did that, but she wasn't to pleased.



Tell her it keeps green fly away.


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

In related news I've remembered this morning that I am now the richest person in the UK. Years and years ago I bought a little box of those tablet soaps you get in hotels to use as part of dressing the showroom, but the kids kept throwing them in the working Jacuzzi bath I had on display at the time, it's a little dusty having been shoved in the warehouse for about ten years, but...







Hahahaha, bring on Armageddon!!


----------



## midlife (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://www.instagram.com/p/B93rjfcAbWO/?utm_source=ig_embed




I work for North Cumbria Integrated Care....wont let me open anything lol, whats it all about?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2020)

midlife said:


> I work for North Cumbria Integrated Care....wont let me open anything lol, whats it all about?


Brewdog diversifying from their usual brewing by producing high-alcohol hand sanitiser. Like Leith Gin, although they're having trouble sourcing bottles.


----------



## Unkraut (18 Mar 2020)

Have just watched the daily briefing from the Robert Koch institute, which is the place the buck stops at in dealing with the current pandemic, *the* source of information and coordination of measures to counteract it.

On the slightly brighter side, the current experience of the virus in Europe indicates it is not quite as lethal here as has been experienced in China. The estimate so far is that 1% (tempting to put _only_ before it, but one death is a tragedy for a family) will likely die from the infection on average, increasing with age and existing medical conditions. 99% will therefore survive, and the symptoms for about 80% are not particularly bad. It does appear that once you have been infected you are immune thereafter.

Realistically, a vaccine is unlikely to be available until the beginning of next year. The spokesman hoped to be proved wrong.

On a much more sobering note, the speaker said if the population does not consistently adhere to the advice given by the institute and enforced by the Federal Government, washing hands and above all avoiding social contact, then within 2 to 3 months there could be up to 10 million people infected, with all the ramifications for overloading the medical system. In any event the numbers are set to dramatically increase, but it is possible to slow down the progress very considerably. The country has had two weeks warning to react before reaching the stage Italy is in at the moment.

Whilst the drastic measures adopted by France have not yet been implemented here, most social life has been closed down. My neighbour, who is a doctor, was asking me about measures in Britain, as it does seem to me (and her) the herd immunity strategy does run the risk of rapid and mass infection which the NHS will have to cope with.


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Here's an interesting one @Pale Rider and all you legal aficionados:


View: https://twitter.com/charlburybaggie/status/1240241479513235456?s=20


A defence lawyer appears to be going down with Covid19 and has been threatened with legal expenses by the judge if he doesn't turn up. The replies on twitter fit in two groups (i) barristers saying they'll appeal the fine pro bono (ii) people advising him to go to court and sneeze on the judge......


----------



## MarkF (18 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Just been watching BBC news.Super Market stores staff being abused by some customers abusing staff for not filling shelves quickly enough.Church toilets broken into and all the toilet rolls stolen.
> I despair in the current attitudes of sod you Jack I’m alright of some people.



These people have peed me of since Sunday morning. MrsF and I have always shopped using 2 panniers or a rucksack, we did again this morning, our lives have not been unduly disturbed.

I would close all supermarket car parks to everybody except the elderly and disabled, that'd sort it, the lardy arsed lazy crackpot fatsos.


----------



## Mo1959 (18 Mar 2020)

I’m struggling to get my head round the huge inconsistencies. The Church is now saying it doesn’t want anyone other than immediate family from attending a funeral service, but people can still wander round a crowded supermarket.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (18 Mar 2020)

This policy of testing (or perhaps policy of not testing, even for NHS staff who have symptoms) is just unbelievable. Anybody knows what the actual policy is?


----------



## ozboz (18 Mar 2020)

I had a call from my youngest Son about an hour ago, he is 27 and incredibly fit , he works and lives I a big pub here in West London , he’s got symptoms , he’s self isolated from this morn , as time goes by the penny is beginning to drop , drop very hard , Jesus,


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> This policy of testing (or perhaps policy of not testing, even for NHS staff who have symptoms) is just unbelievable. Anybody knows what the actual policy is?


I think it's deliberately kept ambiguous because there simply isn't enough testing capacity to cope (just for NHS staff). My prediction is that this will be ramped up as will the provision of protective clothing (masks and gloves etc) which also seems in short supply. It is a shocking state of affairs and needs sorting pretty soon. NHS staff are frightened.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think it's deliberately kept ambiguous because there simply isn't enough testing capacity to cope (just for NHS staff). My prediction is that this will be ramped up as will the provision of protective clothing (masks and gloves etc) which also seems in short supply.


Which is exactly what's just been said in Parliament. Private sector resources to be used to increase testing to 25,000 a day


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Which is exactly what's just been said in Parliament. Private sector resources to be used to increase testing to 25,000 a day


That is good news.


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I’m struggling to get my head round the huge inconsistencies. The Church is now saying it doesn’t want anyone other than immediate family from attending a funeral service, but people can still wander round a crowded supermarket.


There will be an enforced lock down. 
I'm still open, until I'm told to close I have to, I'm afraid until rates, rents and utilities are sorted I have to try to keep earning. I wasn't expecting to see anyone and yesterday I didn't, but today I've had a couple of customers in, one placed an order, and I've had a delivery. Both the delivery driver and the customer that ordered, when I wouldn't stand near them or sign the electronic thing, told me they thought it was being blown out of all proportion and it was no worse than flu. People will ignore it and when others see it being ignored they will too and so it will snowball, just like the panic buying. 
I do wonder if I'm no better


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> Filming is cancelled on Eastenders.



...every cloud eh?


----------



## Mo1959 (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> There will be an enforced lock down.
> I'm still open, until I'm told to close I have to, I'm afraid until rates, rents and utilities are sorted I have to try to keep earning. I wasn't expecting to see anyone and yesterday I didn't, but today I've had a couple of customers in, one placed an order, and I've had a delivery. Both the delivery driver and the customer that ordered, when I wouldn't stand near them or sign the electronic thing, told me they thought it was being blown out of all proportion and it was no worse than flu. People will ignore it and when others see it being ignored they will too and so it will snowball, just like the panic buying.
> I do wonder if I'm no better


Have to admit, I’m not being as careful as I could be.


----------



## The Crofted Crest (18 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> I had a call from my youngest Son about an hour ago, he is 27 and incredibly fit , he works and lives I a big pub here in West London , he’s got symptoms , he’s self isolated from this morn , as time goes by the penny is beginning to drop , drop very hard , Jesus,



Bad news, ozboz. Hope all turns out well. Stay strong.


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> ...every cloud eh?


I know you're joking but my sister works with the catering firms that do, well, whatever show/film/event they're called to, Eastenders occasionally being one, it's all contract work, it's all gig economy. 
This is what a colleague of hers posted this morning:

_Our entire industry (Film and TV) just lost their jobs today in the UK....that is thousands, probably over 10,000 people out of work from today, with no other jobs available to go to for the forseeable future, no severance pay.
Just letting everyone else know in case they think it is inconveniencing them to hear about Covid-19, this is more than the media hype, it is affecting a lot of us right now, in addition to the illness, plus the media likely won't mention it. We're all a bit farked right now._


----------



## The Crofted Crest (18 Mar 2020)

My son is a TV programme editor in Holland. He got sent home last week. All new programmes (including ones already in production) have been pulled. With no live sport and everyone at home, I would have thought demand for content would have soared. But apparently not so.


----------



## Landsurfer (18 Mar 2020)

Would someone explain what the obsession with testing is about .... NHS STAFF YES ... anyone else ...WHY !
If you have the symptoms you know what to do .... and 7 or 14 days later you mingle again with your new immunity ...Huzzah!
Testing is to go up from 10000 a day to 25000 a day and further .... but it's surly a light bulb test ... "congrats you've tested virus free" ... then you pick it up on the way home .... 
Personally the wife and i cant wait to get it, deal with it, and move on ... with our new immunity ..

Just a thought .... in the time period from the first UK virus death to the latest death how many fatal road traffic accidents have occurred, what is the Winter Flu death rate for this winter ..... ??? 

And never mind the toilet rolls .... how much paraffin / bottle gas do you have for when the power goes off ???


----------



## Landsurfer (18 Mar 2020)

The Crofted Crest said:


> Bad news, ozboz. Hope all turns out well. Stay strong.


So the fit young man will recover in 5-7 days and be immune .... great news ...


----------



## Mo1959 (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Just a thought .... in the time period from the first UK virus death to the latest death how many fatal road traffic accidents have occurred, what is the Winter Flu death rate for this winter ..... ???


........or the suicide rate, which sadly may well go up as people lose their businesses/employment.


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> You did. Just back with some bread, milk and tubs of soup and ready meals. Lol. I did buy bananas


Ah well, doomed.


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Just a thought .... in the time period from the first UK virus death to the latest death how many fatal road traffic accidents have occurred, what is the Winter Flu death rate for this winter ..... ???


Have you read the whole thread? 
In keeping with what has been in general a supportive tone in here with very few raised voices, I think I'll decline to give this the response it deserves.


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Would someone explain what the obsession with testing is about .... NHS STAFF YES ... anyone else ...WHY !
> If you have the symptoms you know what to do .... and 7 or 14 days later you mingle again with your new immunity ...Huzzah!
> Testing is to go up from 10000 a day to 25000 a day and further .... but it's surly a light bulb test ... "congrats you've tested virus free" ... then you pick it up on the way home ....
> Personally the wife and i cant wait to get it, deal with it, and move on ... with our new immunity ..
> ...


But how will you know you have actually had it if not tested?


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> So the fit young man will recover in 5-7 days and be immune .... great news ...


I think you may have misunderstood the impact of this virus......young people can still die from it (as happened to doctors in China and mainland Europe, for example). It is a particularly unpleasant death. I have no problem with you being gung-ho about your health, but if you do get symptoms please keep away from others who don't want to get the virus.


----------



## cookiemonster (18 Mar 2020)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nks-to-lowest-level-since-1985-against-dollar

Looking at the impact of this virus, the markets are def not impressed by BJ's actions, or lack of them. Even in HK, the GBP to HKD rate has fallen from $10.3 to the pound about 10 or so days ago to $9.2 now. Not seen this since the Brexit vote.


----------



## Landsurfer (18 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> ........or the suicide rate, which sadly may well go up as people lose their businesses/employment.


As the owner of a SME I can honestly say with the package announced by the chancellor yesterday we will carrying on without redundancies, lay offs or wage drops for any of my staff.


----------



## cookiemonster (18 Mar 2020)

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Landsurfer (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think you may have misunderstood the impact of this virus......young people can still die from it (as happened to doctors in China and mainland Europe, for example). It is a particularly unpleasant death. I have no problem with you being gung-ho about your health, but if you do get symptoms please keep away from others who don't want to get the virus.


The virus is not a death sentence for fit people without underlying health issues, the vast majority of people will make a full recovery ..mortality rate of <3%.. so the chief medical officer says .... i'll believe him.


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> View attachment 509010
> 
> 
> NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!


shoot just got real


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> View attachment 509010
> 
> 
> NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!


As @Fab Foodie said..... every cloud has a silver lining


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> The virus is not a death sentence for fit people without underlying health issues, the vast majority of people will make a full recovery ..mortality rate of <3%.. so the chief medical officer says .... i'll believe him.


How many people is that, roughly?


----------



## cookiemonster (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think you may have misunderstood the impact of this virus......young people can still die from it (as happened to doctors in China and mainland Europe, for example). It is a particularly unpleasant death. I have no problem with you being gung-ho about your health, but if you do get symptoms please keep away from others who don't want to get the virus.



The doctor in Wuhan that first raised the alarm about this died at just 34yo from the virus.


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

DD2 has recieved notification from PHE via her Uni that they are looking for experts/academics/professionals in DNA extraction and PCR techniques to work on Coronavirus....all hands to the pump.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> View attachment 509010
> 
> 
> NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!




You do know the UK song was "My Last Breath"


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> The virus is not a death sentence for fit people without underlying health issues, the vast majority of people will make a full recovery ..mortality rate of <3%.. so the chief medical officer says .... i'll believe him.


Let's say you are right....and there's a mortality rate of 2%......that's 1,200,000 extra deaths in the UK. You are wrong about it only affecting people who are not fit, btw.


----------



## DCLane (18 Mar 2020)

Looks like the Royal Mail are considering whether to keep delivering, due to the risk to staff.

With events now going up to the end of July there's a realisation we could have 3-6 months of this.


----------



## Landsurfer (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> How many people is that, roughly?


I take it you mean "how many young fit people".


----------



## cookiemonster (18 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> Looks like the Royal Mail are considering whether to keep delivering, due to the risk to staff.
> 
> With events now going up to the end of July there's a realisation we could have 3-6 months of this.



Here in HK, all mail services and post offices were shut for 10 days at the start of the outbreak here.


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> I take it you mean "how many young fit people".


As a 63 year old with asthma, I rather resent the way you appear to be consigning me to a group that doesn't appear to matter.


----------



## StuAff (18 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> Looks like the Royal Mail are considering whether to keep delivering, due to the risk to staff.


Not so. AFAIK there are absolutely no plans to do this at this stage.


----------



## nickyboy (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> As a 63 year old with asthma, I rather resent the way you appear to be consigning me to a group that doesn't appear to matter.


If worst comes to the worst, have you got any decent bikes?


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> If worst comes to the worst, have you got any decent bikes?


I have the one I did LEJOG in 2011 (a Bob Jackson) - you can have first dibs


----------



## Mo1959 (18 Mar 2020)

Scottish and Welsh schools to close by Friday.


----------



## mjr (18 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> Given that coronavirus can spread without visible symptoms, it's likely that [...]


Is that a given, at least enough to be significant? https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf dissents: "The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission."



McWobble said:


> The best solution is a vaccine. An effective treatment regime might be another counter - [...]


Agreed nonetheless.


----------



## cookiemonster (18 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Scottish and Welsh schools to close by Friday.



Should've happened long by now.


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Spain to close all hotels by the 24th.


----------



## Rusty Nails (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> As the owner of a SME I can honestly say with the package announced by the chancellor yesterday we will carrying on without redundancies, lay offs or wage drops for any of my staff.



Good for you!

So "I'm alright Jack, b*ll*cks to the rest of you" is the principle you live your life by? How very sad.

You should go for a ride with Racing roadkill, you'd get on well.


----------



## Mo1959 (18 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Should've happened long by now.


Will it make a huge difference though? Kids being kids will they not be running around in groups, in each others houses where there could be elderly grandparents trying to look after them?


----------



## GM (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I have the one I did LEJOG in 2011 (a Bob Jackson) - you can have first dibs




Can I have first dibs on the Cervelo


----------



## cookiemonster (18 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Will it make a huge difference though? Kids being kids will they not be running around in groups, in each others houses where there could be elderly grandparents trying to look after them?



It's been accepted that it's made a big difference here.


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

GM said:


> Can I have first dibs on the Cervelo


I thought you'd want the Ti Brompton......I'll put your name on it


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Lidl Dover just now....






Also, not a bog roll to be seen!
My customer in Switzerland says people are panic buying tinned ravioli! 🤣


----------



## GM (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I thought you'd want the Ti Brompton......I'll put your name on it


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Would someone explain what the obsession with testing is about .... NHS STAFF YES ... anyone else ...WHY !
> If you have the symptoms you know what to do .... and 7 or 14 days later you mingle again with your new immunity ...Huzzah!
> Testing is to go up from 10000 a day to 25000 a day and further .... but it's surly a light bulb test ... "congrats you've tested virus free" ... then you pick it up on the way home ....
> Personally the wife and i cant wait to get it, deal with it, and move on ... with our new immunity ..
> ...


22kg of propane, 1 bottle of meths....


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> View attachment 509010
> 
> 
> NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!


BTW, this is the official entry for Iceland and it had been decided before they even had the comp that they had won.


View: https://youtu.be/VFZNvj-HfBU


----------



## Wobblers (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Would someone explain what the obsession with testing is about .... NHS STAFF YES ... anyone else ...WHY !
> If you have the symptoms you know what to do .... and 7 or 14 days later you mingle again with your new immunity ...Huzzah!
> Testing is to go up from 10000 a day to 25000 a day and further .... but it's surly a light bulb test ... "congrats you've tested virus free" ... then you pick it up on the way home ....
> Personally the wife and i cant wait to get it, deal with it, and move on ... with our new immunity ..
> ...



Sigh...

This virus has some unique problems.

Firstly, people become infectious before symptoms appear.
Secondly , many people will remain asymptomatic - but may still be able to infect others. And without testing, how will they know to self isolate, or that they've acquired resistance and can now mingle with more vulnerable people without fear of giving them what can be a very nasty illness.
Thirdly, most who do get symptoms have mild illness. Again, without testing, how will they know when it's safe for them to come out of isolation?
Fourthly, the virus remains for some time even after symptoms abate. 7 to 14 days is typical, but it can be longer. It is not clear whether or not people who have recovered from it but still have virus present can infect others. Again, without testing, they won't know when it's safe for them to come out of isolation.

Please understand that coronavirus is NOT at all like flu. It is ten times more lethal. It is particularly serious to those with diabetes, heart conditions, and those over 60. Furthermore, it is much, much more infectious than flu. It spreads very much faster than flu. The number of cases of it in the UK are doubling every two days. As are the number of deaths it's causing. Yesterday, 70 people had died because of it. In one week, that number will be around 1100. No flu outbreak has ever done this, not even the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> As a 63 year old with asthma, I rather resent the way you appear to be consigning me to a group that doesn't appear to matter.


....much


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I thought you'd want the Ti Brompton......I'll put your name on it


Damn and blast....


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I’m struggling to get my head round the huge inconsistencies. The Church is now saying it doesn’t want anyone other than immediate family from attending a funeral service, but people can still wander round a crowded supermarket.


 
They are still open for weddings too. Not hard to work it though both weddings and funerals make money. Most services even with a collection went even pay for the light on.


----------



## Sterlo (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Lidl Dover just now....
> View attachment 509019
> 
> 
> ...


They're obviously not keen on whatever are in those white labelled tins!


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Sterlo said:


> They're obviously not keen and whatever are in those white labelled tins!


Tinned tomatoes!


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> View attachment 509010
> 
> 
> NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!



1st the JW stop with all the god bothering now this .... Is this a sign I wonder


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Damn and blast....


I've put your name on my collection of empty gin bottles.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I have the one I did LEJOG in 2011 (a Bob Jackson) - you can have first dibs


Not your friend now


----------



## Landsurfer (18 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Good for you!
> 
> So "I'm alright Jack, b*ll*cks to the rest of you" is the principle you live your life by? How very sad.
> 
> You should go for a ride with Racing roadkill, you'd get on well.



And that package announced by the chancellor applies to all small businesses ....... not just mine .... so all of the thousands and thousands of SME's should be able to fight back against this situation ..... You need to take a lay down ...... not all of us will succeed, but we have a fighting chance ..


----------



## ozboz (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> So the fit young man will recover in 5-7 days and be immune .... great news ...





Brompton Bruce said:


> I think you may have misunderstood the impact of this virus......young people can still die from it (as happened to doctors in China and mainland Europe, for example). It is a particularly unpleasant death. I have no problem with you being gung-ho about your health, but if you do get symptoms please keep away from others who don't want to get the virus.


There is no evidence that he has actually got it , only symptoms at present, I sincerely hope you are right, he has locked himself down as they say, as @BromptonBruce stated it can see all and sundry off, I am particularly worried about him, two days after his 1st birthday he was admitted into the Mater Hospital in Brisbane where he spent the next three months of his very fragile life, ok he got over it all , but I’m having a problem getting my head around this lot now , I’ve just dropped a big bag of his favourite fruits and stuff, all will be fine for him , but I wish if was me and not him,


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> As the owner of a SME I can honestly say with the package announced by the chancellor yesterday we will carrying on without redundancies, lay offs or wage drops for any of my staff.


Well done for running your business in such a way as to make it resilient enough to survive a few months of adverse trading.

Reminds me of a family run feed company in Yorkshire which did the same as you when their sales dropped to zero overnight due to foot and mouth.

The owner said he'd done well out of the staff over the years, so it was now his turn to do well by them.

That's the decent approach - if you can afford to do it.

Unfortunately, there are many equally well run businesses which have little in the way of reserves when it comes to cash.


----------



## Proto (18 Mar 2020)

cy


Beebo said:


> Glastonbury has been cancelled.
> 
> Filming is cancelled on Eastenders.
> 
> But worse still Ant and Dec have to do their Saturday show without a live audience! 😲



I’ll be pleased when they do it without Ant and Dec


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Scottish and Welsh schools to close by Friday.



View: https://twitter.com/Getthebagcoach/status/1239716925653090305?s=20


----------



## MarkF (18 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> This policy of testing (or perhaps policy of not testing, even for NHS staff who have symptoms) is just unbelievable. Anybody knows what the actual policy is?



Being with infectious patients goes with the job, doctors, nurses, health care, cleaners, porters etc l don't think there is a demand, the virus will be way down the list of ones you'd not want to get.

Not heard one colleague mention testing & considering porters & cleaners brought the hospital to near collapse in a 2 week summer strike, IMO, it'd be a very bad idea.


----------



## Johnno260 (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Would someone explain what the obsession with testing is about .... NHS STAFF YES ... anyone else ...WHY !



I think NHS staff, and any first responders as well, it's these people that we are going to rely on heavily.

I also think frontline military as well, they may need to be used to prop up services.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think you may have misunderstood the impact of this virus......young people can still die from it (as happened to doctors in China and mainland Europe, for example). It is a particularly unpleasant death. I have no problem with you being gung-ho about your health, but if you do get symptoms please keep away from others who don't want to get the virus.



Too right death by respiratory failure is not at all pleasant or quick. It's often upsetting sight for staff who have to care for them. Having to see an increase in older people dying though it is bad enough. But when younger people die it hit's you even harder having to see. Once this thing get's going staff will not have time to talk about it as they do now. The true impact mentally will be years to come and it's often the people most close to them who have to try and help them. So if any feels gung-ho this ok but remember the ones who care for you are not robots and the job comes home with them and who ever is around get's the fall out. If you don't care about yourself then care about the people who care and ones who care for them.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Being with infectious patients goes with the job, doctors, nurses, health care, cleaners, porters etc l don't think there is a demand, the virus will be way down the list of ones you'd not want to get.
> 
> Not heard one colleague mention testing & considering porters & cleaners brought the hospital to near collapse in a 2 week summer strike, IMO, it'd be a very bad idea.



The issue is if staff have to self isolate for 14 some could be having to do it for noting but don't know. If they did get tested and it was all clear that will be one more member of staff back to work within days and weeks.


----------



## Wobblers (18 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Is that a given, at least enough to be significant? https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf dissents: "The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission."
> 
> 
> Agreed nonetheless.



This paper estimates that asymptomatic transmission was 48% or higher in two outbreaks.

A more recent paper has come up with a 10% figure for asymptomatic transmission. (Rather irritatingly, this article doesn't give the source: i may try and track it down at some point).

It's clear that asymptomatic transmission is playing a role, possibly even the major one, in driving this pandemic.


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> There is no evidence that he has actually got it , only symptoms at present, I sincerely hope you are right, he has locked himself down as they say, as @BromptonBruce stated it can see all and sundry off, I am particularly worried about him, two days after his 1st birthday he was admitted into the Mater Hospital in Brisbane where he spent the next three months of his very fragile life, ok he got over it all , but I’m having a problem getting my head around this lot now , I’ve just dropped a big bag of his favourite fruits and stuff, all will be fine for him , but I wish if was me and not him,


Sending all the best. I do hope he gets fit and well again. I'm sure he will.

I agree, it's always the way with loved ones, we'd much rather have the illness than them.


----------



## Landsurfer (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Well done for running your business in such a way as to make it resilient enough to survive a few months of adverse trading.
> 
> Reminds me of a family run feed company in Yorkshire which did the same as you when their sales dropped to zero overnight due to foot and mouth.
> 
> ...


We have kept ourselves debt free for over 20 years .... reasonable salaries, no HP, no flash company cars ( i have a Ford Transit Custom mini bus ... 4 kids ) all taxes paid on time .... ... it's been a struggle a few times but were still here ....


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Being with infectious patients goes with the job, doctors, nurses, health care, cleaners, porters etc l don't think there is a demand, the virus will be way down the list of ones you'd not want to get.
> 
> Not heard one colleague mention testing & considering porters & cleaners brought the hospital to near collapse in a 2 week summer strike, IMO, it'd be a very bad idea.


The two doctors in my immediate family would argue very strongly for testing, particularly of NHS staff. They both say this is a virus a health care worker doesn't want - that is because the patients they are dealing with often have a very high viral load and are extremely infectious. Health care workers, as a result, are at risk of a serious reaction to the infection.


----------



## marinyork (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The two doctors in my immediate family would argue very strongly for testing, particularly of NHS staff. They both say this is a virus a healthcare worker doesn't want - that is because the patients they are dealing with often have a very high viral load and are extremely infectious. Health care works as a result are at risk of a serious reaction to the infection.



NHS staff should definitely be tested. Backed up by comments of Witty and Valance. 

The problem is the pontifications of PHE media people and senior PHE staff and politicians on their behalf. They have said earlier today it's ramping up to 25,000 tests per day. I don't see why anyone should trust them. They said this before grandly pronouncing it'd be 10,000 tests per day and the reality lagged severely behind the announcements. There are probably good reasons for the lag.


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Lidl Dover just now....
> View attachment 509019
> 
> 
> ...


what's that big load of tins on the bottom shelf?
Must say though I think the vultures are disgraceful I get the impression that they are being (disgracefully) wise and sensible on what they stock up on - energy dense staples etc rather than fripperies.

Must get out for some some shopping after my failed attempt at the weekend - was forced out today by Thames Water cutting off all my water yet again so did get a load of small tomatoes from the ever dependable Peckham stalls - for beefing up my tinned tomatoes.

Can happily live on tomatoes and my simple sauce.

(recipe available for @Mo1959 when the supplies of instant meals run out and she faces sprinkling salt on the saved boxes)


----------



## MarkF (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> The issue is if staff have to self isolate for 14 some could be having to do it for noting but don't know. If they did get tested and it was all clear that will be one more member of staff back to work within days and weeks.



Actually the hospital is now so quiet that some testing could be done, l think. But there are 1000's working here, not 100's. A porter, a cleaner, a nurse & a health care testing positive would have a huge knock on affect, who'd do their jobs if the huge demand materialises?


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Anyone who doubts (i) the seriousness of this (ii) the dangers to health care staff (iii) what needs to be done, please read this tweet from Rachel Clarke


View: https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1239654325955289089?s=20


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Actually the hospital is now so quiet that some testing could be done, l think. But there are 1000's working here, not 100's. A porter, a cleaner, a nurse & a health care testing positive would have a huge knock on affect, who'd do their jobs if the huge demand materialises?


Yes, and one infectious member of staff, who is undetected and untested, could spread it very widely amongst staff and patients. Who would do all their jobs then? I just don't think you've thought it through.


----------



## MarkF (18 Mar 2020)

Right, I'll go find a manager and ask why we are not being tested.


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> Sigh...
> 
> This virus has some unique problems.
> 
> . And without testing, how will they know to self isolate, or that they've acquired resistance and can now mingle with more vulnerable people without fear of giving them what can be a very nasty illness.



The second bit of your sentence is what I personally am interested in - would like to get it then know that I have had it so that I can help my elderly mum out with stuff.

All I can think of doing is to stay away from her and basically stay inside for 14 days before travelling to her.

And is always possible of course that I have already had it.


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Right, I'll go find a manager and ask why we are not being tested.


I can give you the answer, don't trouble the manager. It's because PHE/NHSE said that they shouldn't be. Why? Because there was (till today) a lack of tests kits.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> There is no evidence that he has actually got it , only symptoms at present, I sincerely hope you are right, he has locked himself down as they say, as @BromptonBruce stated it can see all and sundry off, I am particularly worried about him, two days after his 1st birthday he was admitted into the Mater Hospital in Brisbane where he spent the next three months of his very fragile life, ok he got over it all , but I’m having a problem getting my head around this lot now , I’ve just dropped a big bag of his favourite fruits and stuff, all will be fine for him , but I wish if was me and not him,



Small world Mater Hospital is where Mrs 73 did a self directed placement when she was training. The staff really looked after her the cardigan they gave her she still wears on nights. They even offered her a job before she's even qualified. One patient she looked after was an old nun when she told her where she came from the nun started to throw holy water all over her.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Here's an interesting one @Pale Rider and all you legal aficionados:
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/charlburybaggie/status/1240241479513235456?s=20
> ...




It's a district judge which tells us the case is being heard in a magistrates' court.

In that court there is strong guidance to district judges/magistrates to avoid adjourning cases almost at all costs.

If a defence solicitor cannot get to a hearing, through illness or any other reason, he would be expected to provide cover.

That would usually be by another solicitor from his firm, but if none is available he would be expected to pass the case on to another firm, even though that loses him the income from it.

The defence solicitor in this case will know all that, and the DJ will know he knows.

Magistrates' courts are also even more of a closed shop than crown courts.

Everybody knows everybody else, often for many years.

Each judge and lawyer will acquire a reputation.

The judge in this case does look to have been a bit sharp, but it may be the defence solicitor is known to be a stroke puller, or known to be a bit casual when meeting his procedural obligations.

Another point is the district judge in any magistrates' court is the most senior legal figure on the bench, and the only one with legal training.

This gives him an unofficial leadership role which tends to make him more of a stickler for correct procedure than the lay magistrates, who are often too frightened of their own shadows to keep the defence - and prosecution - lawyers in line.


----------



## PK99 (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> But how will you know you have actually had it if not tested?



There is no antibody test yet available to answer that question. Only test for active disease.


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> It's a district judge which tells us the case is being heard in a magistrates' court.
> 
> In that court there is strong guidance to district judges/magistrates to avoid adjourning cases almost at all costs.
> 
> ...


Thanks, PR!! That's really insightful. There was clearly a lot going on that wasn't reported.


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> There is no antibody test yet available to answer that question. Only test for active disease.


yes I know that from a previous helpful answer (maybe one from you) - i was thinking ahead - seem to remember reading that an antibody test might be available sooner rather than later. Not a vaccine - an antibody test.


----------



## ozboz (18 Mar 2020)

Sainsbury’s in Richmond u Thames about 2 hours ago


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Anyone who doubts (i) the seriousness of this (ii) the dangers to health care staff (iii) what needs to be done, please read this tweet from Rachel Clarke
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1239654325955289089?s=20




For most People they are pointless but they still went out buying them up which has not help either. Maybe they can give a few back saying that they most likely are the same bunch sat on multi packs of bog roll.


----------



## Rocky (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> yes I know that from a previous helpful answer (maybe one from you) - i was thinking ahead - seem to remember reading that an antibody test might be available sooner rarher than later. Not a vaccine - an antibody test.


I'm pretty sure there will be an antibody test soon. You've hit the nail on the head about the uncertainty here. It's not always obvious when someone has the infection, they might be exhibiting very mild symptoms, but still be infectious. How do we know if we've had it and recovered? I've had some of the Covid symptoms but I think it was just a winter cold. It is really difficult particularly if we have vulnerable loved ones and friends that need our support.


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> Sainsbury’s in Richmond u Thames about 2 hours ago



Cripes - I was hoping it would get better - just where the hell are they putting all this?

I did ask the guy in my local Lidl on my failed bikerun on Saturday evening about the idea that the problem would sort itself out but he didn't sound that optimistic.


----------



## Rusty Nails (18 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> And that package announced by the chancellor applies to all small businesses ....... not just mine .... so all of the thousands and thousands of SME's should be able to fight back against this situation ..... You need to take a lay down ...... not all of us will succeed, but we have a fighting chance ..



So all of the SMEs are hit in the same way, no matter what their business is?

I don't know what your business is, but you again seem to be saying that if the measures help your business survive they they will do the same for *every* *other* business.

Some businesses will obviously fare better than others depending on the service they provide, but it is easy to see how e.g. many shops, pubs, restaurants, small hotels, travel agents, whose takings have plummeted and will continue to do so for many months, might be forced to close, and/or lay off staff, even if temporarily. Expenditure will be cut back while the uncertainty and coronavirus-related layoffs continue and, as I said before, good luck to you if your business will be shielded by the government measures, which I welcome, but you cannot speak for all, or even the majority, of SMEs.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

Hmm. The grandkids have developed coughs and temperatures so my step-son has been out trying to get Calpol. A lot of the pharmacies have closed and the two he has found have queues of over a 100 yds long. Supermarkets don't have any either.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

Anybody got any suggestions for a Calpol substitute?


----------



## Johnno260 (18 Mar 2020)

My Mum went to the local supermarket for when it opened, she got there at 7:10am they open at 7:00, there was a huge cue and the shelves were bare by just after 8am....


----------



## Johnno260 (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Anybody got any suggestions for a Calpol substitute?



Try and find some supermarket own brand kids paracetamol, it's the same as calpol, finding it could be an issue, I have had some luck getting things from the smaller pharmacy away from the supermarkets.

Best of luck it's nuts out there, people have lost all sense of reason.

Edit: failing that call a pharmacy and ask for alternatives they are usually helpful, other suggestion could be a hospital with an in house pharmacy.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Thanks, PR!! That's really insightful. There was clearly a lot going on that wasn't reported.



Absolutely.

I can understand why occasional visitors to courts find them boring.

But when you get under the skin of a court they are fascinating places because of all the different characters and various running stories running behind the scenes.

As I say to people who ask about the job, I've no need to watch Coronation Street because I spend eight hours a day involved in a real life soap opera.

I expect Mrs BB would say the same about hospitals.


----------



## Rusty Nails (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Anybody got any suggestions for a Calpol substitute?



Calpol is paracetamol with syrup, sweetener and preservatives. There are generic brand alternatives.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/jun/04/why-parents-are-addicted-to-calpol


----------



## ozboz (18 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Try and find some supermarket own brand kids paracetamol, it's the same as calpol, finding it could be an issue, I have had some luck getting things from the smaller pharmacy away from the supermarkets.
> 
> Best of luck it's nuts out there, people have lost all sense of reason.
> 
> Edit: failing that call a pharmacy and ask for alternatives they are usually helpful, other suggestion could be a hospital with an in house pharmacy.



I was in Sainsbury’s earlier , paracetamol is out of stock , I went to an independent chemist on the high st , they had plenty , you may find better pickings at the local shops


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

My wife found a pharmacy that have reserved some for him - he's in a very long queue with 3 fractious children now.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Been in Morrisons no improvement but I did get the last tin of corn beef 
One women of younger pension age with a trolly full was replying to an equally aged woman and her husband. "I will need to self isolate it getting silly". She then went on to take the last two trays of tin potatoes. Just leave the odd one I was thinking. By the look of it she's already emptied a few other sheaves


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

My supermarket shopping experience at lunchtime seems out of step with the rest of you.

Everything I needed in Morrisons, although I did have to compromise on my usual brand and size choices for some items.

Pasta looked very low, and I saw one selfish peanut with several big bags of dried.

I think I was lucky after speaking in the cafe to the man who was servicing the coffee machine.

He'd just come from the other Morrisons in town which he said was more or less cleaned out with long queues for what was left.


----------



## Johnno260 (18 Mar 2020)

The entire panic buying is beyond a joke, I bet the food waste from idiots taking what they can't consume will be horrific.

If they need to use police resources to control sub human trash from doing this it will be crazy, I would say mobilize the army to make sure people behave, obviously some need to be treated like kids.


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> . She then went on to take the last two trays of tin potatoes.


Did you try suggesting to her that potatoes might be available without the tin?

Were there any "fresh" potatoes?


----------



## Proto (18 Mar 2020)

I’m in the middle of buying a house, should exchange contract


Landsurfer said:


> We have kept ourselves debt free for over 20 years .... reasonable salaries, no HP, no flash company cars ( i have a Ford Transit Custom mini bus ... 4 kids ) all taxes paid on time .... ... it's been a struggle a few times but were still here ....



Well done, and how it should be done.

When I ran a small machining business I liked to keep two months turnover cash in the bank for a rainy day. We would not have survived 2008 without this.

I bought all our plant and equipment with cash, and a decent lathe being into 6 figures, I had to save my pennies.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Brewdog diversifying from their usual brewing by producing high-alcohol hand sanitiser. Like Leith Gin, although they're having trouble sourcing bottles.



Whats it taste like?


----------



## nickyboy (18 Mar 2020)

I walked past a small "mini market" that serves a small town today and they had so much toilet roll on display you couldn't see inside through the windows

I am willing to sell the location of this to the highest bidder


----------



## Johnno260 (18 Mar 2020)

Education secretary is making a statement after 5pm, school closures imminent I think.


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I walked past a small "mini market" that serves a small town today and they had so much toilet roll on display you couldn't see inside through the windows
> 
> I am willing to sell the location of this to the highest bidder


no need - we'll flush it out of you sooner or later.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Did you try suggesting to her that potatoes might be available without the tin?
> 
> Were there any "fresh" potatoes?



Yes they had them fresh and no I did not she shot off like lightning down the next aisle.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I am about to find out. I printed my "attestation" and ticked shopping for essentials, I'll see if I can get a couple of photos in the shop. The supermarket I often use is just on the edge of town and quite near to a big road police station. If there is going to be a "controle" it will be there.
> Basically the French government said that people had ignored the pleas for them to spread out and to stop gathering in groups so the government decided to slap them awake.
> The list of cons is endless but had already began mounting after 12 million pupils and students went home, before the ban on all but essential travel.
> The pros are unknown as yet, I think the idea is to buy time and not follow Italy. I can go out on my own to exercise, get my shopping in and if I had sick or elderly relatives go on care visits for them. People can still travel to and from work and take dogs for walks, on their own. Visit the vet, the car repairer and the Doctor. That is about the scope of what is tickable on the form.
> ...


Well that was an unusual shopping trip, late morning into lunchtime is usually slightly quieter in this town of 32,000. I don't have much to add to explain the photos other than they do not portray a normal scene for a Wednesday afternoon, its not a one horse town, there are five supermarkets. Apart from pasta and rice not being replenished yet there was everything else, including bog roll.






This is about the same size as a larger Tesco Extra, around noon.





Last 1/2 of checkouts with newly attached lexan panels to keep the snot from the operators.





Bog and kitchen roll on promo. This aisle is the main route in, french supermarkets have one entrance, there is no dipping through the checkouts to get in, they tell you off if you try.





Butchery counter, that's my chariot with cat litter. The bloke in front hasn't got the hang of it yet, the chevron tape is new and you know which side of it he should be on.




Freezer cabs and yogurts/some dairy.




Booze aisle number 1




Lidl car park, no it wasn't taken on a Sunday, this is early Wednesday afternoon.





Lidl. My chariot with savoury snacks, bog roll lurking on the right.




Bog roll slightly depleted but almost normal stock.




LBS next to Lidl, open but with rules to keep you away from each other and them.
Beautiful day mind, 20 celsius and lots of UV


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> Looks like the Royal Mail are considering whether to keep delivering, due to the risk to staff.
> 
> With events now going up to the end of July there's a realisation we could have 3-6 months of this.



Plus everytime a letter comes through your letterbox that could be the coronavirus coming in to your house.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Education secretary is making a statement after 5pm, school closures imminent I think.


Care worker crêches might take their place and perhaps makes sense.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Plus everytime a letter comes through your letterbox that could be the coronavirus coming in to your house.


Great! An all-enveloping fear....


----------



## Blue Hills (18 Mar 2020)

by the by on the shopping front = for somewhat odd reasons I get emails from Lidl Italy.

They have announced a reduction in hours - closing at 7 in the evening - they don't say why.

Out of stock by then anyway and allows them to stock up more easily?

staff shortages?

They don't say.


----------



## Johnno260 (18 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Care worker crêches might take their place and perhaps makes sense.


I hope something is in place as my work aren't being sympathetic at all, and my wife is a children's nurse.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Well that was an unusual shopping trip, late morning into lunchtime is usually slightly quieter in this town of 32,000. I don't have much to add to explain the photos other than they do not portray a normal scene for a Wednesday afternoon, its not a one horse town, there are five supermarkets. Apart from pasta and rice not being replenished yet there was everything else, including bog roll.
> View attachment 509036
> 
> 
> ...




But does Carrefour still have stock of car tyres?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Great! An all-enveloping fear....



Plus everything you touch on the supermarket shelf has been touched by the 10 people ahead of you as they looked for the best code life.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> I’m in the middle of buying a house, should exchange contract


Don't shake the conveyancing solicitors hand when its completed.


----------



## Sterlo (18 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> View attachment 509032
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It's starting to ease then, there's a packet of something on the bottom shelf in the top picture!


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Tesco Dover....




































....the horror....


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> by the by on the shopping front = for somewhat odd reasons I get emails from Lidl Italy.
> 
> They have announced a reduction in hours - closing at 7 in the evening - they don't say why.
> 
> ...


I think I've seen something that 24hr Tescos are not going to be for a while to allow them uninterrupted time to restock.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Britsh RedCross have upped the campaign to get people signed up as community reserve volunteer. If you are able why not sign up no training , just a willingness to help others. Just like many are doing via FB groups and like but with the backing, coordination, and support of the BRC. It's not a care role just extra hand to do the basics like deliver food, just checking on someone or sorting donations out.

https://reserves.redcross.org.uk

If you can't bet you know someone who can help get the word out people we need as many as we can get.


----------



## Archie_tect (18 Mar 2020)

Where are people putting all this stuff they are panic-buying? They'd need a shop-sized store to fit it all in!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

This just popped up on my LinkedIn -






Words fail me.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> But does Carrefour still have stock of car tyres?


The local Carrefour is a diddy one in a 1.5 horse town (large village) down river and sells bugger all of note. Auchan still flog tyres, batteries, brake pads! 
Norauto is like Kwikfit, they are closed and they say they are happy to come to you.
"Nos centres sont actuellement fermés mais Norauto.fr vous livre à domicile gratuitement. Prenez soin de vous et de vos proches".


----------



## Sterlo (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Tesco Dover....
> 
> View attachment 509049
> 
> ...


What's the problem, have you never had salmon and fabric conditioner before?


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Where are people putting all this stuff they are panic-buying? They'd need a shop-sized store to fit it all in!


If only every one had a bike or bikes  one one would have the room.


----------



## Rusty Nails (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Well that was an unusual shopping trip, late morning into lunchtime is usually slightly quieter in this town of 32,000. I don't have much to add to explain the photos other than they do not portray a normal scene for a Wednesday afternoon, its not a one horse town, there are five supermarkets. Apart from pasta and rice not being replenished yet there was everything else, including bog roll.
> View attachment 509036
> 
> 
> ...



Not that I'm panic buying but how much will it cost to get you to post me a 48 roll pack of bog roll. It must be at at least triple ply cushioned stuff. Standards must be maintained.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Sterlo said:


> What's the problem, have you never had salmon and fabric conditioner before?


salmon with a hint of floral notes..... yum yum


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Not that I'm panic buying but how much will it cost to get you to post me a 48 roll pack of bog roll. It must be at at least triple ply cushioned stuff. Standards must be maintained.



But if the royal mail do end delivery's you may have to hang on some time


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> Looks like the Royal Mail are considering whether to keep delivering, due to the risk to staff.
> 
> With events now going up to the end of July there's a realisation we could have 3-6 months of this.


Truly absurd I say. The life of a postman (person, whatever) is a fairly solitary one, even amongst the sorting frames at the office. I really don't see a problem protecting them from close contact. The PDA signature thing need sorting, how I do not know.
What about the thousands of checkout operators, have the supermarkets started protecting them by only allowing one person in the full length of the checkout run in?


----------



## Sterlo (18 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Not that I'm panic buying but how much will it cost to get you to post me a 48 roll pack of bog roll. It must be at at least triple ply cushioned stuff. Standards must be maintained.


I saw a sign on an industrial estate this morning offering a 40 pack of triple ply for £15


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> But if the royal mail do end delivery's you may have to hang on some time



If they're doing end deliveries, presumably they'll arrive clean?


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Sterlo said:


> What's the problem, have you never had salmon and fabric conditioner before?


Jeze! Poland circa 1975.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Sterlo said:


> I saw a sign on an industrial estate this morning offering a 40 pack of triple ply for £15


Seller needs a beating.


----------



## marinyork (18 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'm pretty sure there will be an antibody test soon. You've hit the nail on the head about the uncertainty here. It's not always obvious when someone has the infection, they might be exhibiting very mild symptoms, but still be infectious. How do we know if we've had it and recovered? I've had some of the Covid symptoms but I think it was just a winter cold. It is really difficult particularly if we have vulnerable loved ones and friends that need our support.



There's been a lot more info on this the last couple of days. There's an antibody test for if you currently have it. It appears legit and not fictitious. Or tests as many different companies claim to have developed them. It appears they are less accurate than PCR in the first 5 days of infection. That's not really a surprise.

Seems to be a possible way ahead here in the next couple of months. As the test does seem to exist I'm sure whatever problems there are can be learned from and improved. PCR is reserved for health workers or serious cases. Kits for backup and many others. There's an interesting trade off as the antibody tests are quoted as very fast, the PCR as a few hours to 24 hours. In the early stages 24 hours is very valuable. Perhaps by end of May (too late) the UK will have managed to ramp up significantly and done something like half a million PCR tests cumulatively to that date, but I would think given time that that could be dwarfed by antibody tests. 

The antibody tests if PHE wrote some official app or website so people could upload antibody test results, even anonymously, that might be something very useful.


----------



## Unkraut (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Tesco Dover....


I know Tesco Dover - it is what we raid on our way back from hols in England, and hardly a corner shop. You can just about keep frozen stuff frozen during the journey home. Best not to use their dirty and cheap fuel though. Diesel!

Amazing pictures. This kind of behaviour brings about the very thing that causes it in the first place - fear of shortages. If people won't discipline themselves, and if the supermarkets won't or can't either, then the govt will have to do it. And I say that as someone with an element of libertarian in their thinking.


----------



## Rusty Nails (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> But if the royal mail do end delivery's you may have to hang on some time



Not a problem. My local newsagent has promised to keep me his supply of unsold Daily Mails.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Can we all please remember #bekind


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Not that I'm panic buying but how much will it cost to get you to post me a 48 roll pack of bog roll. It must be at at least triple ply cushioned stuff. Standards must be maintained.


Cheaper to order a pallet, £140 for a Europallet, about 2 metre cubed. Sell some on and you get to keep your own stash and probably stretch to a new car too.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)




----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Tesco Dover....


Shiphams doing well with the meat pastes for sure!


----------



## Sterlo (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 509061


Does it come with the forklift cos that won't fit on my current toilet roll holder unless I knock the wall down?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

Apparently you can't get a Fray Bentos for love nor money.



Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Seller needs a beating.


No, I take that back. 40 pack, if its triple mind you is not extortion. Now I can see my mob justice mentality rising to the surface.


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> The PDA signature thing need sorting, how I do not know.


Do what I did this morning, refuse to sign it or touch it. Apparently I wasn't the first today.


----------



## Dave7 (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Tesco Dover....
> 
> View attachment 509049
> 
> ...


1st photo. Could you get me those bottles of pink stuff. I am sure will taste nice or be useful for something


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Apparently you can't get a Fray Bentos for love nor money.
> 
> 
> 
> Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing


Its a good thing, to know other people you may not like eating them.


Mugshot said:


> Do what I did this morning, refuse to sign it or touch it. Apparently I wasn't the first today.


They may need to scrub it for the moment, I sometimes get the postman to sign it himself if i'm out.


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> They may need to scrub it for the moment, I sometimes get the postman to sign it himself if i'm out.


Honestly the best thing I can manage on those things is a kind of spiral, I don't really even bother trying anymore, whether it's me or the delivery person that does it will make no odds whatsoever.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2020)

That's the schools out from Friday, but key workers' children to continue to attend.


----------



## mjr (18 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's soap and paracetamol I'm worried about. Not been able to get hold of any soap for a two weeks and that's what many others have told me when discussions have gone beyond bog roll, soup, chicken and so on.


I saw soap yesterday in Holland and Barratt (but I was looking for yeast) and bought paracetamol today in the Premier-branded shop two villages over. The pharmacy there had none and were not able to order any from their wholesalers except for prescriptions and staff generally sounded rather peed off with the panic-buyers. Usually the doctors there tell you to buy it over the counter rather than pay the £9 prescription charge but if people don't stop panicking soon, there are going to be a lot of prescriptions written for it.


----------



## mustang1 (18 Mar 2020)

In the daily Boris briefing, Patrick Ballance is there but where is Chris Witty?


----------



## mjr (18 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Small company, need to work from home, don’t have the infrastructure to cope? Cloudflare have made this option free to small businesses till 1st September.
> 
> https://blog.cloudflare.com/cloudfl...mall-businesses-during-coronavirus-emergency/


Depending on your view, that's simply a commercial decision, or altenatively an unethical exploitation of the crisis. Last time I looked at it, there's basically no exit route from that system, so any business adopting it will have the choice to either pay whatever price is demanded or bear the costs of setting everything up from scratch again.

And yes, I have a slight axe to grind against Cloudflare. If I never have the door slammed in my face on someone else's website by their use of the reCaptcha eyesight and hearing test, it'll be too soon.

Relatedly:


BrumJim said:


> My son's surgery refused to let him turn up yesterday, so we did the whole thing via Whatsapp. Seemed to work fine. It could be the future.


Facebook are probably wetting themselves at the amount of medical info they're going to gather on everyone. Why on earth are people trusting a company which has admitted experimenting on users' moods by manipulating their newsfeeds? There are loads of other video calling services out there, including aTalk, Jitsi Meet, Nextcloud Talk and many others. Even Skype's owner hasn't committed as unethical acts as facebook (as far as we know yet).


----------



## mjr (18 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> I haven't checked these facts but


If you haven't checked them, they ain't facts. Or if you disagree, could you help me to move my retirement payoff from the First National Bank of Nigeria, please? 

More seriously, how long before we get reminded that careless talk costs lives? Check before you share.


----------



## ozboz (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Britsh RedCross have upped the campaign to get people signed up as community reserve volunteer. If you are able why not sign up no training , just a willingness to help others. Just like many are doing via FB groups and like but with the backing, coordination, and support of the BRC. It's not a care role just extra hand to do the basics like deliver food, just checking on someone or sorting donations out.
> 
> https://reserves.redcross.org.uk
> 
> If you can't bet you know someone who can help get the word out people we need as many as we can get.



Just signed up , I’m not sure what I can do , but ..........


----------



## Proto (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Don't shake the conveyancing solicitors hand when its completed.



Hadn’t realised I’d posted that but I should have added that estate agents are also screwed, especially the smaller chains and independents. Can’t take on new business without site valuations, can’t continue with existing listings if no viewings can be carried out, sales nearing contract exchange need surveyors and engineers reports. Basically the market is going to stop. That’s a awful lot of estate agents with no income. I hope they put some aside from the good times instead of pissing it way on smart cars and holidays. Oh hang on, it’s estate agents we‘re talking about.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Why's it matter one of his deputies is. Maybe he's currently going other things like briefing senior health care staff or in the middle of being briefed himself.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> Just signed up , I’m not sure what I can do , but ..........


 don't worry if they want you to help they will find something.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

School closed great no job or pay for me then. Not on a regular contract so looking like full time volunteering for me then. 
It's the vulnerable students that worry me we are the only ones who care about them and school is the only place they feel safe. 
School maybe open to the likes of them but now with no need to worry if they turn up or not the school wont care. They care little as it is.


----------



## Duffy (18 Mar 2020)

We all need to eat
You can praise god from the comfort of your own home.


----------



## Venod (18 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Check before you share


That's why I put the warning, please feel free to check the facts.


----------



## Julia9054 (18 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> That's the schools out from Friday, but key workers' children to continue to attend.


But teachers don’t count as key workers. Who is going to be looking after teachers‘ children?


----------



## DCLane (18 Mar 2020)

With schools closing indefinately clearly the government is now expecting the isolation to be for months, not weeks, possibly 6 months?

I'm presuming they'll either use mocks and/or sit exams in July/September or even next year? How that'll affect A-level/university entry or apprenticeships I don't know. This will create chaos!

I've a 15yo sitting his last set of 2nd mock GCSE's tomorrow and asking why.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> Just signed up , I’m not sure what I can do , but ..........



Get into another fine mess?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> But teachers don’t count as key workers. Who is going to be looking after teachers‘ children?



Go to school with their teacher parent


----------



## Johnno260 (18 Mar 2020)

I spoke with the school, their impression which makes sense, is they will take stock of key workers in the local area, and a hub school would be implemented, this is all what they think it's not information that has been passed down but it makes sense.

Also makes sense as some key workers will end up pulling more shifts as other staff become ill or have to isolate.

On the shop front Tesco was re-stocked this evening but many shelves emptied fast, clear signs advising no more than 2 of any item, the guy with 8 packets or loo roll was told at the till sorry but these are the rules, when he kicked off he was asked to leave and the store guard frog marched him to the exit, glad to see this no nonsense approach to verbal abuse and lack of common courtesy.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> But teachers don’t count as key workers. Who is going to be looking after teachers‘ children?


I'm sure that for those teachers who are still working, they will count as key workers.


----------



## Julia9054 (18 Mar 2020)

No paracetamol on the shelves in Lidl. When I got to the till there were lots of boxes behind the cashier along with other items. Cashier said she had been confiscating packets all shift from customers trying to buy too many.


----------



## Archie_tect (18 Mar 2020)

Key worker and vulnerable children including ones relying on school meals to still go to school... so some teachers and support staff to attend but no clear information yet except to say that Ofsted inspections won't be cancelled?? Daughter's primary [teacher, not pupil!] not giving out guidance yet so lots to check and confirm before Friday.


----------



## mjr (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Do what I did this morning, refuse to sign it or touch it. Apparently I wasn't the first today.


I wore gloves to sign yesterday. I'm now keeping my own stylus in a coat pocket near the door.


----------



## Johnno260 (18 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'm sure that for those teachers who are still working, they will count as key workers.



In this situation I would say teachers are classed as a key worker as they would be directly helping other key workers to stay in work.

I think they will have this base covered, I know many aren't happy, but I honestly think Boris and co are doing the best they can.


----------



## mjr (18 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> That's why I put the warning, please feel free to check the facts.


Please do it before you share because you know some others won't check or read replies correcting it. Like you didn't this time. And you've not updated the post to reflect the corrections people already gave you anyway.

It's better one person checks before sharing than multiple readers use time checking.


----------



## Archie_tect (18 Mar 2020)

This is going to get really complicated especially if utilities start to have power and supply breakages relying on back-up engineers.

Friend rang to say his wife's devastated that Coronation Street and Eastenders actors have said they are stopping production... though if that happens across the board that's all live broadcast TV up the creek in a few weeks. Home isolation maybe isn't going to be as exciting for families as they first thought.


----------



## ozboz (18 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Get into another fine mess?


I usually do ! 
After leaving the Army I swore I’d never volunteer for anything ever again, and I haven’t , but..........
If I can help I will ,


----------



## mjr (18 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> This is going to get really complicated especially if utilities start to have power and supply breakages relying on back-up engineers.
> 
> Friend rang to say his wife's devastated that Coronation Street and Eastenders actors have said they are stopping production... though if that happens across the board that's all live broadcast TV up the creek in a few weeks. Home isolation maybe isn't going to be as exciting for families as they first thought.


Who knew that having a half-terabyte backlog on the PVR would become an asset?!


----------



## itboffin (18 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Next doors garden at night? Then wipe on their bush?



why not scoot across the grass dog style?


----------



## Archie_tect (18 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Who knew that having a half-terabyte backlog on the PVR would become an asset?!


What happened to the other half?


----------



## Venod (18 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> And you've not updated the post to reflect the corrections people already gave you anyway.



Please point me to the corrections people have given me, because I have had no alerts.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> Hadn’t realised I’d posted that but I should have added that estate agents are also screwed, especially the smaller chains and independents. Can’t take on new business without site valuations, can’t continue with existing listings if no viewings can be carried out, sales nearing contract exchange need surveyors and engineers reports. Basically the market is going to stop. That’s a awful lot of estate agents with no income. I hope they put some aside from the good times instead of pissing it way on smart cars and holidays. Oh hang on, it’s estate agents we‘re talking about.


You remind me of the sorry story of Halliwells when you mention building funds up during the good times. Halliwells was Manchesters largest commercial property law firm. I was with a friend collecting his car from the underground car park at 3 Hardman square, Halliwells building. The insolvency people had cordoned off and clamped several cars, Porsche 911, Bentley Arnage, Merc AMG, a couple of BMW's, company cars belonging to partners. 
How the mighty fall, the partners there earned very big money and spent it on houses in Tuscany, ski chalets in the Swiss alps. Hundreds of para legals redundant and another empty building because the good times were never going to stop, then they stopped. 
3 Hardman square gets to be on the telly as a shoot location now and then, dramas mainly, most recently the exterior in "The Stranger", previously in apocalyptic drama "Year and Years", interior location.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> What happened to the other half?


"Other stuff"?


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Or if you disagree, could you help me to move my retirement payoff from the First National Bank of Nigeria, please?


Don't do that! The interest is garbage at 35%, invest in the Crown Bank of Lagos, moneys safe and they offer 45%!


----------



## Wobblers (18 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> The second bit of your sentence is what I personally am interested in - would like to get it then know that I have had it so that I can help my elderly mum out with stuff.
> 
> All I can think of doing is to stay away from her and basically stay inside for 14 days before travelling to her.
> 
> And is always possible of course that I have already had it.



I'm in exactly the same position. I think avoiding as much contact as possible and ensuring you've had 14 days without any signs of illness before visiting is the best you can do.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> This is going to get really complicated especially if utilities start to have power and supply breakages relying on back-up engineers.
> 
> Friend rang to say his wife's devastated that Coronation Street and Eastenders actors have said they are stopping production... though if that happens across the board that's all live broadcast TV up the creek in a few weeks. Home isolation maybe isn't going to be as exciting for families as they first thought.


A golden opportunity for Netflix and Amazon to provide "emergency" free TV for those lucky enough to have an internet connection, the PR value is huge as I see it.


----------



## PeteXXX (18 Mar 2020)

HGV driving regulations have been relaxed, for a while, (for some services, ie supermarkets, food production etc) plus London night access controls have been suspended for lorries for the foreseeable future.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (18 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> NHS staff should definitely be tested. Backed up by comments of Witty and Valance.
> 
> The problem is the pontifications of PHE media people and senior PHE staff and politicians on their behalf. They have said earlier today it's ramping up to 25,000 tests per day. *I don't see why anyone should trust them.* They said this before grandly pronouncing it'd be 10,000 tests per day and the reality lagged severely behind the announcements. There are probably good reasons for the lag.



We clearly aren't being told the whole truth regarding testing.

Official figures today says "As of 9am on 17 March 2020, 50,442 people have been tested in the UK, of which 48,492 were confirmed negative and 1,950 were confirmed as positive."

Those numbers couldn't possibly correlate with 10,000 tests a day, let alone 25,000, because 29,764 tests were already conducted by 12th/13th March.

According to industrial sources, the government was not taking delivery of available test kits from suppliers. Then
"on March 11, NHS England said it intended to greatly expand testing capacity for Covid-19 – up to 10,000 tests per day. But the following day, the chief medical officer for England Chris Witty said at a Number 10 press conference: “We will pivot all of the testing capacity to identifying people in hospitals who have symptoms.” Some healthcare experts take this to mean that the 10,000-tests-per-day target is now irrelevant and that only a subset of cases, the most severe, will be identified. "

Given it is clear and the CMO/CSA admitted that they have been given the freedom to guide based on "science", the fundamental roadmap was determined by them to tackle this deadly outbreak, but it has been nothing but shambolic. As the editor of the Lancet wrote today:

"Indeed, it didn’t need this week’s predictions by Imperial College scientists to estimate the impact of the government’s complacent approach. Any numerate school student could make the calculation. With a mortality of 1% among 60% of a population of some 66 million people, the UK could expect almost 400,000 deaths. The huge wave of critically ill patients that would result from this strategy would quickly overwhelm the NHS.

The UK’s best scientists have known since that first report from China that Covid-19 was a lethal illness. Yet they did too little, too late.
...
Somehow there was a collective failure among politicians and perhaps even government experts to recognise the signals that Chinese and Italian scientists were sending. We had the opportunity and the time to learn from the experience of other countries. For reasons that are not entirely clear, the UK missed those signals. We missed those opportunities.
....
There will be deaths that were preventable. The system failed. I don’t know why. But, when we have suppressed this epidemic, when life returns to some semblance of normality, difficult questions will have to be asked and answered. Because we can’t afford to fail again. We may not have a second chance."


----------



## mjr (18 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> Please point me to the corrections people have given me, because I have had no alerts.


Still demanding I do your work? Go read replies yourself!

Here's the first one for you: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5916268


----------



## mjr (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> A golden opportunity for Netflix and Amazon to provide "emergency" free TV for those lucky enough to have an internet connection, the PR value is huge as I see it.


And getting their spies into homes even huger value!


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Yes it is difficult for particularly older people who can never be sure the person at the door doesn’t have ulterior motives


Indeed!

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKTzGwBdoHk


----------



## Venod (18 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Still demanding I do your work?



I had not read all the posts in this thread nor have any intention to do so, as you can see I wasn't tagged in that post, you're becoming a bit annoying, if you don't want to read my posts put me on ignore, I will say again I gave a warning in my posts that facts hadn't been checked its good to see someone decided to look things up using their own initiative instead of telling people what not to post.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> The UK’s best scientists have known since that first report from China that Covid-19 was a lethal illness. Yet they did too little, too late.
> ...
> Somehow there was a collective failure among politicians and perhaps even government experts to recognise the signals that Chinese and Italian scientists were sending. We had the opportunity and the time to learn from the experience of other countries. For reasons that are not entirely clear, the UK missed those signals. We missed those opportunities.


It's not just the ''worst'' cases that we should be heeding. Why does Germany have 11,973 identified cases and 28 dead when the UK has only 2,626 but 104 dead? That's comparing a mortality* rate of under 0.3% with almost 4%. They're clearly doing something far better than we are. And we should be learning from there.

*It's only a mortality rate for identified cases. Identify more, i.e test, test, test and the mortality rate will fall because more will be identified.


----------



## slowmotion (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> A golden opportunity for Netflix and Amazon to provide "emergency" free TV for those lucky enough to have an internet connection, the PR value is huge as I see it.


I read that Pornhub were offering free Premium subscriptions to Italians banged up at home.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal...-to-italians-in-coronavirus-lockdown-c-742894


----------



## Milzy (18 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I spoke with the school, their impression which makes sense, is they will take stock of key workers in the local area, and a hub school would be implemented, this is all what they think it's not information that has been passed down but it makes sense.
> 
> Also makes sense as some key workers will end up pulling more shifts as other staff become ill or have to isolate.
> 
> On the shop front Tesco was re-stocked this evening but many shelves emptied fast, clear signs advising no more than 2 of any item, the guy with 8 packets or loo roll was told at the till sorry but these are the rules, when he kicked off he was asked to leave and the store guard frog marched him to the exit, glad to see this no nonsense approach to verbal abuse and lack of common courtesy.


Will key workers children under the age of 5 still be taken? Only asking because school isn't legally required untill 5. Many in foundation class are still 4.


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Try and find some supermarket own brand kids paracetamol, it's the same as calpol, finding it could be an issue, I have had some luck getting things from the smaller pharmacy away from the supermarkets.
> 
> Best of luck it's nuts out there, people have lost all sense of reason.
> 
> Edit: failing that call a pharmacy and ask for alternatives they are usually helpful, other suggestion could be a hospital with an in house pharmacy.




Have you tried Wilcos


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> The entire panic buying is beyond a joke, I bet the food waste from idiots taking what they can't consume will be horrific.
> 
> If they need to use police resources to control sub human trash from doing this it will be crazy, I would say mobilize the army to make sure people behave, obviously some need to be treated like kids.


 Very few people think in terms of do I need multiple items rather do I really need all the extra items.0


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Education secretary is making a statement after 5pm, school closures imminent I think.




Done this Friday.


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes they had them fresh and no I did not she shot off like lightning down the next aisle.




Did she throw a tin at you then pick it up and leg it before you recovered.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I read that Pornhub were offering free Premium subscriptions to Italians banged up at home.
> 
> https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal...-to-italians-in-coronavirus-lockdown-c-742894



Don’t you mean banging away at home?


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Plus everytime a letter comes through your letterbox that could be the coronavirus coming in to your house.


i
Flipping heck that’s a real comfort p


Rusty Nails said:


> Not that I'm panic buying but how much will it cost to get you to post me a 48 roll pack of bog roll. It must be at at least triple ply cushioned stuff. Standards must be maintained.




Member of the aristocracy.Bet you have a solid gold monogrammed toilet roll holder.

of


----------



## slowmotion (18 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Don’t you mean banging away at home?


Just guessing, but Italian bed-swervers probably don't need the services of Pornhub.


----------



## rualexander (18 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> I wore gloves to sign yesterday. I'm now keeping my own stylus in a coat pocket near the door.



Royal Mail suspended signatures on their PDAs last weekend, your postie should not be asking you to sign anything.
https://www.royalmail.com/coronavirus


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Did she throw a tin at you then pick it up and leg it before you recovered.


If she had she’d have to be quick I went to Salford uni it was common to have to dodge the odd firework on the way home in the evenings. So it become second nature.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Just guessing, but Italian bed-swervers probably don't need the services of Pornhub.



Maybe they are on live webcam?


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 509061



There for community arse wiping.


----------



## AuroraSaab (18 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It's not just the ''worst'' cases that we should be heeding. Why does Germany have 11,973 identified cases and 28 dead when the UK has only 2,626 but 104 dead? That's comparing a mortality* rate of under 0.3% with almost 4%. They're clearly doing something far better than we are. And we should be learning from there.
> 
> *It's only a mortality rate for identified cases. Identify more, i.e test, test, test and the mortality rate will fall because more will be identified.



I think the discrepancy is because Germany has been doing a lot more testing, whereas the UK has only been testing people with symptoms (ie more likely to actually have it) so the fatality rate will appear higher. 

Delivery wise, I have had 3 deliveries this week and all 3 couriers had abandoned signing for stuff. They just noted my name. Common sense really. It seems such an obvious, easy precaution. Bit like putting till staff behind perspex screens - could be done fairly quickly and easily I would have thought.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> Bit like putting till staff behind perspex screens - could be done fairly quickly and easily I would have thought.


This was done over the weekend just passed, I'm too lazy to highlight them but you can see Lexan screens mounted on the checkouts, all 19 of them. Oh and you will get spoken too if you snuggle in behind the person occupying the run in.


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Apparently you can't get a Fray Bentos for love nor money.
> 
> 
> 
> Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing



Hope they don’t run out of Marmite.That would be a disaster.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Maybe they are on live webcam?


Those blocks you see on the TV news, the ones facing each other, binoculars, for taking in the sky at night.


----------



## pawl (18 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> This is going to get really complicated especially if utilities start to have power and supply breakages relying on back-up engineers.
> 
> Friend rang to say his wife's devastated that Coronation Street and Eastenders actors have said they are stopping production... though if that happens across the board that's all live broadcast TV up the creek in a few weeks. Home isolation maybe isn't going to be as exciting for families as they first thought.



Just add Emmerdale to the list Enough bad news around with out those miserable programs.


----------



## All uphill (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Absolutely.
> 
> I can understand why occasional visitors to courts find them boring.
> 
> ...



Agreed! I spent quite a bit of time in Magistrates Courts before retiring. Always interesting. Also took my son when he was 16 to the County Court for him to see what happens if you feel you are above the law.


----------



## Poacher (18 Mar 2020)

Just asking for trouble: "A crew member of cargo ship MV Corona is suspected to have the virus."
Full story, mainly about cruise ship MV Aidamira, here:


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> If she had she’d have to be quick I went to Salford uni it was common to have to dodge the odd firework on the way home in the evenings. So it become second nature.


Jesus wept! I can't remember the names of the three horrendous early 70's pubs arrayed along the A6 near the Albion St junction, the "Woolpack" was one. All three contained life forms you did not want to make eye contact with. Mind you, fair play, not one of them had a flat roof, pubs with flat roof and all that entails including mandatory Rottweiler or Rhodesian Ridgeback. The Brass Handles and the Mechanics Arms are two pubs I will remember until I croak.


----------



## Johnno260 (18 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> Will key workers children under the age of 5 still be taken? Only asking because school isn't legally required untill 5. Many in foundation class are still 4.


The education minister said school and nursery/day care, they need key workers so I think they will be covered.

I'm already getting emails from the school/nursery so contact yours ASAP.


----------



## lazybloke (18 Mar 2020)

A colleague was off today (fever). I was working alongside him all yesterday so am now banned from the office for a fornight.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Poacher said:


> Just asking for trouble: "A crew member of cargo ship MV Corona is suspected to have the virus."
> Full story, mainly about cruise ship MV Aidamira, here:


Was the ship carrying pallets of this by any chance?


----------



## ozboz (18 Mar 2020)

I went back to our local Sainsbury’s this evening to get the stuff I couldn’t carry earlier , I learned that if I get there tomorrow between 7-8 i can get in and have first dibs before the crowd swamp it, I also noticed that three vans that had a builders logo on them from about 30 miles away with three passengers in each , each of them grabbed a trolley and hurried into the store obviously intending to fill them and take stuff back to their area, if a lot of this is going on it’s putting more strain on this store’s allocation goods to replenish shelves ,
but their mission was a failure as I would say that 90% of all foodstuffs were gone ,


----------



## perplexed (18 Mar 2020)

One way of stopping hoarding/panic buying...

Denmark


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

I like that there is an exchange of what to do for your more vulnerable neighbours here. This is the only British website with forums that I view or post to and its heartening to see people looking out for others aside from their immediate clan. Chapeau.


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> One way of stopping hording/panic buying...
> 
> Denmark
> 
> ...


That is BRILLIANT!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

https://www.theleader.info/2020/03/...6-mgAAtIL24gCVlXpfPwxQCf2oqOPHizcHEcNr-VAu8so

One person per car in Spain


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> That is BRILLIANT!


Effective I would say but it makes me somewhat angry to think that those empty shelves cleared by stupid scroaty people are scenes from the country of my birth. Spirit of the blitz my arse.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> I think the discrepancy is because Germany has been doing a lot more testing, whereas the UK has only been testing people with symptoms (ie more likely to actually have it) so the fatality rate will appear higher.
> 
> Delivery wise, I have had 3 deliveries this week and all 3 couriers had abandoned signing for stuff. They just noted my name. Common sense really. It seems such an obvious, easy precaution. Bit like putting till staff behind perspex screens - could be done fairly quickly and easily I would have thought.


Quite, but if you want to account for the number of deaths by cases identified alone, the UK should have over 100,000 cases. Unless, the testing difference is not tenfold and more, but that the Germans are looking after their patients far more successfully. The truth may be somewhere in between. So test more and care better. And learn more about best practice, which in Europe, seems to imply learn from what Germany is doing.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> https://www.theleader.info/2020/03/...6-mgAAtIL24gCVlXpfPwxQCf2oqOPHizcHEcNr-VAu8so
> 
> One person per car in Spain


So cabbies are to drive around without fares! Buses without passengers!


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> https://www.theleader.info/2020/03/...6-mgAAtIL24gCVlXpfPwxQCf2oqOPHizcHEcNr-VAu8so
> 
> One person per car in Spain


They should make an exception to allow this creature to get to the nearest airport to return home to loot supermarket shelves of stock. A vox pop of Britons stuck in Benidorm three days ago. You can make up your own words for what this pond life had to say, bladdered obviously but the sober version was probably much the same.


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I know Tesco Dover - it is what we raid on our way back from hols in England, and hardly a corner shop. You can just about keep frozen stuff frozen during the journey home. Best not to use their dirty and cheap fuel though. Diesel!
> 
> Amazing pictures. This kind of behaviour brings about the very thing that causes it in the first place - fear of shortages. If people won't discipline themselves, and if the supermarkets won't or can't either, then the govt will have to do it. And I say that as someone with an element of libertarian in their thinking.


I was staggered. As you imply, it’s a bloody big store, completely cleared out in areas. Amazing. :-(


----------



## Fab Foodie (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> A golden opportunity for Netflix and Amazon to provide "emergency" free TV for those lucky enough to have an internet connection, the PR value is huge as I see it.


Apart from a lack of internets due to all the homeworkers.....
Oh wait, maybe we should ban streaming movies between 0800 and 1800...


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> They should make an exception to allow this creature to get to the nearest airport to return home to loot supermarket shelves of stock. A vox pop of Britons stuck in Benidorm three days ago. You can make up your own words for what this pond life had to say, bladdered obviously but the sober version was probably much the same.
> View attachment 509113


Let's head over to our correspondent in the USA:


View: https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1240375906159472640?s=20


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I was staggered. As you imply, it’s a bloody big store, completely cleared out in areas. Amazing. :-(


The poorly stored pasta will be good news for weevils at least. What a waste. Good news for Shippams though!


----------



## Mike_P (18 Mar 2020)

Done a quick stock check of food and do not need anything till Monday surely everyone over buying will have no more space to buy anything by then In what is probably the first round of cut backs in public transport East Lancashire and North/West Yorkshire services operated by Transdev will largely run to Saturday times from next Monday.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Mar 2020)

Still vegan stuff left for some reason -


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Apart from a lack of internets due to all the homeworkers.....
> Oh wait, maybe we should ban streaming movies between 0800 and 1800...


Lack of internets is the norm here, 2.4Mbps downstream on a good day. I wait for Musks ruin the night sky extremely fast internet because Orange won't be laying fibre past my house anytime soon, of course I am absolutely happy that I subsidise people in big cities who pay the same as me for 200Mbps downstream.
Interesting fact of restrictions on shop openings here, computer/phone and computer repair shops to remain open for now. Connectivity is being viewed as an essential for information and staying in touch with people you know.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Maybe lost in the rest of todays news. 

Vodafone, EE, O2 and Three are among the mobile firms that have said they will give their customers free online access to the latest NHS health information about coronavirus.

It will be free to access the following websites:


nhs.uk
111.nhs.uk
wales.nhs.uk
nhsinform.scot
nidirect.gov.uk
publichealth.hscni.net
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ata-charges-for-online-nhs-coronavirus-advice


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Someone mentioned earlier people profiteering from Corona, have a gander at this lot:


View: https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1240355540691226625?s=20


Yeah, yeah, I know it's another tweet, but what do you want me to do, type it all out for you?


----------



## rualexander (18 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> https://www.theleader.info/2020/03/...6-mgAAtIL24gCVlXpfPwxQCf2oqOPHizcHEcNr-VAu8so
> 
> One person per car in Spain


But solo cyclists are still banned from riding their bikes?!


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

Anyone else noticed how many of the "key workers" are the low paid, unskilled ones that Patel was telling us she was going to get booted out of the country a few weeks ago?


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Someone mentioned earlier people profiteering from Corona, have a gander at this lot:
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1240355540691226625?s=20
> ...



There was a character with as much integrity as her in the film "There Will Be Blood" and it was not Daniel Day Lewis character. As for the Bill Hicks lookalike, I spare a thought for him each time I kneel on my those I want to die from a horrendous death prayer mat.
He's on shaky ground this week with a threat to put him away for snake oil claims and a just under the limit DUI with hints of wife beating thrown in. He sorely needs to expire from the worst condition possible.


----------



## rualexander (18 Mar 2020)

Several articles and studies are showing some promise in the use of the anti-malarial drug chloroquine as a treatment for covid-19. Either on it's own or in combination with other antiviral drugs.
The benefit of chloroquine is that it is a reasonably safe drug with a long history of use.

e.g. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32164085


----------



## Heigue'r (18 Mar 2020)

Lots of army trucks being seen on the outskirts of london tonight,I would imagine there is a stricter lockdown on the way very soon


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

My elderly mother told me she had a note through the door from a charity offering to get her shopping in.

A heartening gesture, and happily for me and her, not needed because my older brother has that well covered.

Her attitude to the virus is that it's not worth getting excited about, mixed with a little annoyance that it's curtailing her already limited social life.

I've seen instances before in which older people cannot get vexed about, say, a tragedy that's befallen their family.

They are sympathetic, but I think the knowledge they will likely die sooner rather than later puts things into perspective.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Anyone else noticed how many of the "key workers" are the low paid, unskilled ones that Patel was telling us she was going to get booted out of the country a few weeks ago?


I have not seen the woman in moving pictures for a wee while. Does she still have her natural resting face (contemptuous smirk) when facing awkward questions or have her PR staff coached her for a more sympathetic look?


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Heigue'r said:


> Lots of army trucks being seen on the outskirts of london tonight,I would imagine there is a stricter lockdown on the way very soon


You are serious? BuzzFeed has this as bollox news.


----------



## vickster (18 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> Several articles and studies are showing some promise in the use of the anti-malarial drug chloroquine as a treatment for covid-19. Either on it's own or in combination with other antiviral drugs.
> The benefit of chloroquine is that it is a reasonably safe drug with a long history of use.
> 
> e.g. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32164085


Interesting, I take hydroxycholoroquine daily (and vitamin d as another thread)


----------



## Heigue'r (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> You are serious?


Yes,a convoy heading through east london/essex


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Heigue'r said:


> Yes,a convoy heading through east london/essex


Source please!


----------



## Heigue'r (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Source please!


The mother in law watching from her living room window


----------



## vickster (18 Mar 2020)

Apparently it's a rumour doing the rounds on (other) social media, along with other nonsense


----------



## Heigue'r (18 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Apparently it's a rumour doing the rounds on (other) social media, along with other nonsense


Rumour it may be but currently there are army trucks parked on eastern ave in dagenham east.That is fact.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Heigue'r said:


> The mother in law watching from her living room window


Jeezo! Internet currency meets real world observation.


----------



## DCLane (18 Mar 2020)

Heigue'r said:


> Lots of army trucks being seen on the outskirts of london tonight,I would imagine there is a stricter lockdown on the way very soon



I'm not surprised: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8127171/Boris-Johnson-hints-lockdown-London.html


----------



## Venod (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I've seen instances before in which the older people cannot get vexed about, say, a tragedy that's befallen their family.


The MIL is 96 lives alone and isn't the least bit concerned about Covid 19, the wife is extremely worried about her laissez faire attitude, the FIL lost a lung in WW2 and was in recuperation in SA for a long time, he died in is early 60s after years of bad health, she lost a grandson to excessive drinking and liver disease, she has had numerous health issues and is a cancer survivor, I suppose at her age and experience lt is just another blip in a long journey.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

ECB has asked for all club level cricket to stop indefinitely tomorrow they meet to talk about calling of 1st class games.
Not looking good now this outbreak is getting serious.


----------



## Proto (18 Mar 2020)

Daughter in law went to pick her car up from a minor repair tonight. £70. When they found she’s NHS, they said they’d waive the charge. I Struggled not to cry, lovely.


----------



## Hugh Manatee (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Shiphams doing well with the meat pastes for sure!



I thought my MiL was the only person who actually eats that stuff. I was wrong!
The week or two per year she's here, the cat goes mad every morning when she opens the jar for her breakfast as he thinks he must be in line for his second breakfast.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Mar 2020)

Are you a social media influenza ? Stop now, you’re a super spreader amongst your followers


----------



## Mugshot (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I have not seen the woman in moving pictures for a wee while. Does she still have her natural resting face (contemptuous smirk) when facing awkward questions or have her PR staff coached her for a more sympathetic look?


It's a curious thing, but many of our favourties seem to have been conspicuous by their absence recently.


----------



## Hugh Manatee (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> ECB has asked for all club level cricket to stop indefinitely tomorrow they meet to talk about calling of 1st class games.
> Not looking good now this outbreak is getting serious.



Not good at all. I wonder how many TMS podcasts are available on line?


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

McDonald's and burger king are now offering free hot and cold drinks free to NHS staff. (Only drive-through parts are open)
Not a bad way to start or finish your shift.


----------



## AuroraSaab (18 Mar 2020)

I do wonder if the attitude of those folk in Benidorm is simply because they feel removed from the situation because they are on holiday. It simply hasn't sunk in yet how serious things are. Nice bit of footage in the paper yesterday though of a British woman breaking the lock down and going for a swim in the hotel pool. Someone (police I guess), dived in and she was very roughly dragged out, dragged across the concrete, and cuffed.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Someone mentioned earlier people profiteering from Corona, have a gander at this lot:
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1240355540691226625?s=20
> ...



You really can learn about the meaning of soul-sick in that one.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> McDonald's and burger king are now offering free hot and cold drinks free to NHS staff. (Only drive-through parts are open)
> Not a bad way to start or finish your shift.


Corona? No thanks, Ben Shaws D&B for me thank you.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Hugh Manatee said:


> Not good at all. I wonder how many TMS podcasts are available on line?


I'm not sure though I doubt enough to last the season


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> I do wonder if the attitude of those folk in Benidorm is simply because they feel removed from the situation because they are on holiday. It simply hasn't sunk in yet how serious things are. Nice bit of footage in the paper yesterday though of a British woman breaking the lock down and going for a swim in the hotel pool. Someone (police I guess), dived in and she was very roughly dragged out, dragged across the concrete, and cuffed.


You are being too generous I think.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> It's a curious thing, but many of our favourties seem to have been conspicuous by their absence recently.


Bill Hicks lookalike would be anything but absent if his amplifiers had not been closed by the tech giants. His acolytes soldier on though.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Corona? No thanks, Ben Shaws D&B for me thank you.



Given that for a good few hours 12 in the case of wife many will have been up close with this virus. A quick hand over at a distance is not exactly high risk.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> ECB has asked for all club level cricket to stop indefinitely tomorrow they meet to talk about calling of 1st class games.
> Not looking good now this outbreak is getting serious.



Aye, it's brave man who deprives a Yorkshireman of his club cricket.


----------



## MarkF (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> McDonald's and burger king are now offering free hot and cold drinks free to NHS staff. (Only drive-through parts are open)
> Not a bad way to start or finish your shift.



Hospitals have hot and cold drinks for staff you know, like any workplace. Am I am going to go out of my way to queue and get a drink from these well known altruistic businesses, just because I can? Hmmm, I really doubt their sincerity here, top publicity though.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> McDonald's and burger king are now offering free hot and cold drinks free to NHS staff. (Only drive-through parts are open)
> Not a bad way to start or finish your shift.



Marks and Spencer in Durham City offer the local coppers and PCSOs free access to and some free food in their staff canteen.

But they draw the line at traffic wardens.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Given that for a good few hours 12 in the case of wife many will have been up close with this virus. A quick hand over at a distance is not exactly high risk.


I jest, badly. Corona was the pop of my youth, from the back of a Bedford 3 tonner. Ben Shaws was the competition. Its late, I have a glass and with the news beginning to sink deeply into the British psyche probably not the best post on my part.
I read all of this thread a week ago, from start to finish and I saw the initial levity, doubt and scorn be replaced by more words per post and real concern as of late.


----------



## Rusty Nails (18 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Hospitals have hot and cold drinks for staff you know, like any workplace. Am I am going to go out of my way to queue and get a drink from these well known altruistic businesses, just because I can? Hmmm, I really doubt their sincerity here, top publicity though.


Do they have free coffee or just free instant rubbish?

Don't get me wrong I drink the instant rubbish when I am in work, but give me the MacD stuff any day.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

@randynewmanscat  
Ben Shaws I remember it well it was a treat as kid when the pop van came our way.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Marks and Spencer in Durham City offer the local coppers and PCSOs free access to and some free food in their staff canteen.
> 
> But they draw the line at traffic wardens.


Now there was me apologising for a crass post and you mention traffic wardens. Not the 9 o'clock news, the doner kebab sketch.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Aye, it's brave man who deprives a Yorkshireman of his club cricket.


Too right are we really sure this virus is not some Lancashire plot to stop us winning at all cost.


----------



## MarkF (18 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Do they have free coffee or just free instant rubbish?
> 
> Don't get me wrong I drink the instant rubbish when I am in work, but give me the MacD stuff any day.






The rubbish stuff and I too like MacD coffee, the only thing I buy from them when out cycling. But most NHS front line staff live on coffee at work, what they'd like to grab into work or out of, is food. That's more pennies though.


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Aye, it's brave man who deprives a Yorkshireman of his club cricket.


The sound of willow on a sheeps head somewhere in the west riding at dead of night.


----------



## tom73 (18 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Hospitals have hot and cold drinks for staff you know, like any workplace. Am I am going to go out of my way to queue and get a drink from these well known altruistic businesses, just because I can? Hmmm, I really doubt their sincerity here, top publicity though.


They do if you get a break that is. But many NHS staff don't work on sites with easy access to food and drink. Agree it's publicity same as other placers giving discount. But if you can why not? Mrs 73 will not be the only one who on the way home just some times feels like a cold coke she not going out her way it's on the way home. Anyway given the about the Ambo's spend at MD every shift it's about time they got something free.


----------



## mjr (18 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> Royal Mail suspended signatures on their PDAs last weekend, your postie should not be asking you to sign anything.
> https://www.royalmail.com/coronavirus


Was a courier. Controlled drug (black triangle) and nhs hasn't yet suspended chain of custody for it.


----------



## marinyork (18 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Source please!



A lot of tomorrow's papers think the capital will be locked down completely by the weekend.

The government aren't daft, they saw it took 5 bites of the cherry for Italy - 3 lockdowns and 2 major changes of policy.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> I had not read all the posts in this thread nor have any intention to do so, as you can see I wasn't tagged in that post, you're becoming a bit annoying, if you don't want to read my posts put me on ignore, I will say again I gave a warning in my posts that facts hadn't been checked its good to see someone decided to look things up using their own initiative instead of telling people what not to post.


So what if you weren't tagged? You know now, so correct your post, else you're a super-spreader of misinformation.


----------



## Blue Hills (19 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> I'm in exactly the same position. I think avoiding as much contact as possible and ensuring you've had 14 days without any signs of illness before visiting is the best you can do.


thanks for confirming my reasoning.


----------



## Shut Up Legs (19 Mar 2020)

Apparently the local police in Melbourne have stopped doing RBTs (random breath tests), due to the coronavirus, which means that drink-drivers have a free pass.


----------



## Levo-Lon (19 Mar 2020)

Zero new infections in China ? Well what about that


----------



## Julia9054 (19 Mar 2020)

I‘m stressed. School closing has hit me hard. I am a person who thrives on structure and routine. Not being able to plan my life makes me anxious. How can I not go to work? I am gutted for my year 11s - a not very academic bunch who were just starting to shape up nicely. I was excited to see how they would do.


----------



## Julia9054 (19 Mar 2020)

Contemplates installing school bell system in my house to give my life structure. 
I am clearly completely institutionalised!


----------



## Rocky (19 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Contemplates installing school bell system in my house to give my life structure.
> I am clearly completely institutionalised!


When I retired, I felt it important to have a routine and structure to my day. I still get up at 6am. I set myself tasks to do. I make sure I exercise. I also enrolled on an OU course to keep the brain cells working. I’m like you and need structure. Get that bell working!!


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Contemplates installing school bell system in my house to give my life structure.
> I am clearly completely institutionalised!


Could I suggest you apply for temporary modship of the NACA area, I realise the experience may be more year 5 than 11, but it may help.


----------



## Rocky (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Could I suggest you apply for temporary modship of the NACA area, I realise the experience may be more year 5 than 11, but it may help.


Speak for yourself.......I'm definitely year 4


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1240219396708003843


----------



## Fab Foodie (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Anyone else noticed how many of the "key workers" are the low paid, unskilled ones that Patel was telling us she was going to get booted out of the country a few weeks ago?


Also interesting to hear from Johnson how nurses and teachers are suddenly ‘vital workers’ now....well pay them properly then you Tory daffodil...


----------



## Adam4868 (19 Mar 2020)

Phoned my partner from Sainsburys last night to ask if there was anything we needed...even though the store was half empty at best.
Her reply was "just make sure you get a few bottles of Red ! "


----------



## Venod (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> So what if you weren't tagged? You know now, so correct your post, else you're a super-spreader of misinformation.



FFS stop telling me what to do, bullies are the worst kind of people and you come across as one, I suggest you stop tagging me in posts.


----------



## Duffy (19 Mar 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-bury-coronavirus-dead?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

This is a good read for the “what’s all the fuss about?” brigade


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Also interesting to hear from Johnson how nurses and teachers are suddenly ‘vital workers’ now....well pay them properly then you Tory daffodil...


Yep, care workers of all levels, shelf stackers, checkout operators, delivery drivers, HGV drivers, not seeing too many hedge fund managers when the shoot hits the fan.
Talking of which what are the super wealthy doing? Bill Gates, or more correctly his foundation, has committed $100m to global detection, isolation and treatment, Gates it worth $100bn, Jack Ma (Alibaba founder) has pledged $14m from his foundation, Ma is worth $39bn, and so on.


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

Johnson's letter reads like a Sun opinion piece:


----------



## Hugh Manatee (19 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I‘m stressed. School closing has hit me hard. I am a person who thrives on structure and routine. Not being able to plan my life makes me anxious. How can I not go to work? I am gutted for my year 11s - a not very academic bunch who were just starting to shape up nicely. I was excited to see how they would do.


 My kids (twins) are second year A Level students. All that was thrown into limbo last night! I do hope they don't take the mocks into consideration. I told them not to worry too much about them. No one cares as long as you don't get straight U's. Keep your powder dry I said! Whoops.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I‘m stressed. School closing has hit me hard. I am a person who thrives on structure and routine. Not being able to plan my life makes me anxious. How can I not go to work? I am gutted for my year 11s - a not very academic bunch who were just starting to shape up nicely. I was excited to see how they would do.



That's an honest and realistic view.

If it's any consolation, many others will feel the same way, although some will be reluctant to admit it.

Acknowledging a problem exists is the first step in dealing with it, so in that respect you are already ahead of the curve.


----------



## Rocky (19 Mar 2020)

I’m not sure if this is genuine but I’d really like it to be


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Also interesting to hear from Johnson how nurses and teachers are suddenly ‘vital workers’ now....well pay them properly then you Tory daffodil...



Judging how much someone else should get is difficult, but I wonder - if you were able to delve into it - if you would find nurses' pay is so bad.

I'm getting to know a few nurses through regular contact and this topic has cropped up a few times.

The general view, particularly among those with a few years in, is the pay is pretty good, or at least they are not inclined to complain about it.

I suspect that's true, once you get a few steps up however their seniority ladder works.

The pension is another consideration.

One of the nurses close to retirement told me she was dumbfounded when she found out how much she was going to get, describing herself as 'very lucky'.

Of course, I told her luck had nothing to do with it, she had worked long and diligently to reach the position she had.

All that is still anecdotal, but it has more veracity about it than those who simply bellow 'pay them more' from a position of very little knowledge.


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I‘m stressed. School closing has hit me hard. I am a person who thrives on structure and routine. Not being able to plan my life makes me anxious. How can I not go to work? I am gutted for my year 11s - a not very academic bunch who were just starting to shape up nicely. I was excited to see how they would do.


Your not alone with this structure and routine thing. I don't cope with sudden change either. Know now it's all part of newly discovered autism. Not sure what I will like once this get even worse. I'm trying to find new things to do and to focus on. I've posted up thread about BRC Community reserve volunteers maybe a possible idea. @Brompton Bruce idea of The OU is a good one as both a current student and graduate I know it's not an easy one but gives you structure. Signing up to a full course maybe not right for you. But they have plenty of free stuff on open learn and via future learn. Some of them are aimed at teachers so keeps you busy and top up your PDP at the same time


----------



## Fab Foodie (19 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Judging how much someone else should get is difficult, but I wonder - if you were able to delve into it - if you would find nurses' pay is so bad.
> 
> I'm getting to know a few nurses through regular contact and this topic has cropped up a few times.
> 
> ...


We had a Theatre Nurse round for dinner last night who is having a crash course in ICU as just moved to the front-line, my neighbour is a recently retired Nurse, other friends include a Nurse running a control centre and a another a Paramedic. I also know 2 junior doctors and one senior Radiographer. 
Considering the responsibilities, the conditions they have to work in, their importance when the shithitsthefan and the fact that we are short by about a very big number, I'd wager that by most people's metrics they're not paid enough.....


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Mar 2020)

Sainburys in T Wells avoid, que is across the carpark and it's strict 1 in 1 out policy the door is being heavily controlled.

I was glad to see an idiot ejected from a Tesco last night, he had a ridiculous amount of loo roll, when the cashiers system wouldn't allow him to scan it he got abusive, the guy on the door asked him to calm down when he wouldn't he was asked to leave, I'm glad they're taking this approach if it was me I would take it a step further and bar the people being abusive so staff.

MOD mobilized this has made me happy, our military are the best and if I see them around it makes me feel more secure.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> We had a Theatre Nurse round for dinner last night who is having a crash course in ICU as just moved to the front-line, my neighbour is a recently retired Nurse, other friends include a Nurse running a control centre and a another a Paramedic. I also know 2 junior doctors and one senior Radiographer.
> Considering the responsibilities, the conditions they have to work in, their importance when the shithitsthefan and the fact that we are short by about a very big number, I'd wager that by most people's metrics they're not paid enough.....



Blimey, you know more medical folks than I do and you're not ill.

Do they routinely complain about the pay?

I wouldn't seek to read too much into it if they don't, because 'just get on with it and get the job done' is ingrained in their psyche.

But it remains a fact that most people who complain about nurses' pay are outside the industry and have very little knowledge of it.

I also think they find the whole virus thing wryly amusing.

All of a sudden they are getting lots of attention for something they've been doing for years - getting on with their job.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Mar 2020)

Operation fresh food and pasta and tea a success. Operation get milk later.


----------



## perplexed (19 Mar 2020)

I was like John McClane prowling the Nakatomi Plaza yesterday, but I managed to come home with a bag of flour.


----------



## MarkF (19 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> We had a Theatre Nurse round for dinner last night who is having a crash course in ICU as just moved to the front-line, my neighbour is a recently retired Nurse, other friends include a Nurse running a control centre and a another a Paramedic. I also know 2 junior doctors and one senior Radiographer.
> Considering the responsibilities, the conditions they have to work in, their importance when the shithitsthefan and the fact that we are short by about a very big number, I'd wager that by most people's metrics they're not paid enough.....



I think the wages for general ward nurses are appropriate and they get a hefty increase by moving into ICU. I earn the same as a ward health care worker and think I am overpaid and they are very much underpaid. But those with day to day responsibility for lives, Doctors & Radiographers, making crucial decisons, not only for the patient but for their careers, are very much underpaid, I used to earn a lot more fitting flat roofs......


----------



## flake99please (19 Mar 2020)

420 members passing through Costco doors in the first 15 minutes. Christmas ‘peaks’ are around 200-220 every 15 minutes.


----------



## randynewmanscat (19 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m not sure if this is genuine but I’d really like it to be
> 
> View attachment 509141


If it is true respect to the man for making sure to secure all the essentials of life before going into quarantine!


----------



## Fab Foodie (19 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Blimey, you know more medical folks than I do and you're not ill.
> 
> Do they routinely complain about the pay?
> 
> ...


Unfortunately it's their dedication that undermines their value in many respects. And you are right, on a day-to-day basis they don't complain about pay but that doesn't mean that it's not commensurate with the value of the work that they do OR the value that society believes they are worth. I earn around double what my Theatre Nurse friend earns for my expertise which is hardly of any great importance to the world outside commerce.


----------



## perplexed (19 Mar 2020)

Farage's account appears to have been hacked by Trump...


View: https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1240341861119791104?s=20


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Mar 2020)

One of the arms on my cheapo reading glasses snapped last night.

My preferred supplier for a replacement is Asda.

Looks like it might be a difficult visit.

I have a possible long car journey at the weekend.

Better buy some fuel before that's added to the panic buy list.


----------



## marinyork (19 Mar 2020)

A third type of Coronavirus test is developed by the University of Oxford.

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-03-18-oxford-scientists-develop-rapid-testing-technology-covid-19


----------



## Sterlo (19 Mar 2020)

The a***holes are coming out of the woodwork!

https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/new...rus-scammers-vulnerable-people-police-3963324


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (19 Mar 2020)

Sterlo said:


> The a***holes are coming out of the woodwork!
> 
> https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/new...rus-scammers-vulnerable-people-police-3963324



We had a scam call this morning saying our broadband was going to be cut off. Clearly nonsense but it might worry some people. Thankfully we've had far more positive messages from friends offering help if needed.


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

I'm hoping this chap has got a shop


View: https://twitter.com/danyomii/status/1240241784212643840?s=20


----------



## Levo-Lon (19 Mar 2020)

Txt from Barclays

Hello, you may have seen recent announcements on mortgage payment holidays for customers impacted by coronavirus. We want you to know we're working on it. Please don't call us yet and we'll be in touch by the end of the week. Take care of yourself, and for anything else, we're here for you. Your Barclays Team


----------



## Rusty Nails (19 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Unfortunately it's their dedication that undermines their value in many respects. And you are right, on a day-to-day basis they don't complain about pay but that doesn't mean that it's not commensurate with the value of the work that they do OR the value that society believes they are worth. I earn around double what my Theatre Nurse friend earns for my expertise which is hardly of any great importance to the world outside commerce.


Unfortunately, how important your job is to society does not equate to the money you will be paid. I can't remember when it ever was, although it does appear to be getting worse. It is all about market forces and about how many are available and prepared to, and can meet the skill requirements of any job.

This will never change.


----------



## marinyork (19 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Unfortunately, how important your job is to society does not equate to the money you will be paid. I can't remember when it ever was, although it does appear to be getting worse. It is all about market forces and about how many are available and prepared to, and can meet the skill requirements of any job.
> 
> This will never change.



In Italy only supermarkets and pharmacies have been open for some time. 

In the UK working in pharmacy will become permanently like closure/catching up from closure conditions these coming days/weeks/months. I think it'll completely collapse and you could have a lot of support staff off sick or walking out. They are working for minimum wage anyway.


----------



## Mo1959 (19 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> In Italy only supermarkets and pharmacies have been open for some time.
> 
> In the UK working in pharmacy will become permanently like closure/catching up from closure conditions these coming days/weeks/months. I think it'll completely collapse and you could have a lot of support staff off sick or walking out. They are working for minimum wage anyway.


I feel for my ex colleagues in the Prison Service......often a very much forgotten profession for some reason. Hundreds of prisoners in close proximity who may need restrictions on visits, etc is going to make for a very volatile situation. 😢


----------



## PK99 (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Johnson's letter reads like a Sun opinion piece:
> 
> View attachment 509133



You mean a simple message in simple language that most people can understand?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Mar 2020)

The people I feel sorry for are those on benefits who live literally hand to mouth with no savings. How are they meant to stock up? Shops have dropped most of the BOGOF deals so food has become more expensive at a stroke and it's the cheap staples that are being cleared out by those who can afford to spend £5-600 at a time on supplies. Some corner shops haven't hesitated to put prices up - our one tried to charge me £1.80 for a loaf of bread this morning. He knows he can get away with it because a great many people round here rely on him providing a line of credit for groceries - if prices go up they won't notice until they pay off some of what they owe when their benefits come in.


----------



## Fab Foodie (19 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Unfortunately, how important your job is to society does not equate to the money you will be paid. I can't remember when it ever was, although it does appear to be getting worse. It is all about market forces and about how many are available and prepared to, and can meet the skill requirements of any job.
> 
> This will never change.


We must believe that it can be changed and work to make it so....


----------



## Fab Foodie (19 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> Farage's account appears to have been hacked by Trump...
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1240341861119791104?s=20



What a fcukwit


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Mar 2020)

If caught publicly shame the person, it's not time to pussy foot around send a strong we won't tolerant this message.


----------



## ozboz (19 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Sainburys in T Wells avoid, que is across the carpark and it's strict 1 in 1 out policy the door is being heavily controlled.
> 
> I was glad to see an idiot ejected from a Tesco last night, he had a ridiculous amount of loo roll, when the cashiers system wouldn't allow him to scan it he got abusive, the guy on the door asked him to calm down when he wouldn't he was asked to leave, I'm glad they're taking this approach if it was me I would take it a step further and bar the people being abusive so staff.
> 
> MOD mobilized this has made me happy, our military are the best and if I see them around it makes me feel more secure.


Sainsbury’s Richmond had a pensioner and impaired policy on the door at 7 this morning , the shelves were at about 80% full , but there were still some elderly people running around , anyway I got what I needed for us and my Son who has locked himself down , the queue of cars was massive even that early the under 65’s outside were being ok , but some were a bit gobby toward the staff controlling the entrance,


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> You mean a simple message in simple language that most people can understand?


No, I mean an unnecessary amount of underlining, capitals and italics, there's a difference between a simple message and a simpleton's message.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Mar 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> We had a scam call this morning saying our broadband was going to be cut off. Clearly nonsense but it might worry some people. Thankfully we've had far more positive messages from friends offering help if needed.



My IT lot has sent a general email warning of virus themed scam emails.

It contains this quote:

"Since February 2020, the National Fraud Intelligence Bureau has identified 21 reports of fraud where coronavirus was mentioned, with victim losses totaling over £800k. We have also received multiple reports about coronavirus-themed phishing emails attempting to trick people into opening malicious attachments or revealing sensitive personal and financial information. 

One common tactic used by fraudsters is to contact potential victims over email purporting to be from research organisation’s affiliated with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organisation (WHO)."


----------



## oldwheels (19 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Sainburys in T Wells avoid, que is across the carpark and it's strict 1 in 1 out policy the door is being heavily controlled.
> 
> I was glad to see an idiot ejected from a Tesco last night, he had a ridiculous amount of loo roll, when the cashiers system wouldn't allow him to scan it he got abusive, the guy on the door asked him to calm down when he wouldn't he was asked to leave, I'm glad they're taking this approach if it was me I would take it a step further and bar the people being abusive so staff.
> 
> MOD mobilized this has made me happy, our military are the best and if I see them around it makes me feel more secure.


In our local Coop you can only buy 2 of any individual item unless you can convince the manager that you are buying for others. In a small community this is possible. In Oban Tesco the limit is 3 of any item which limits people stocking up but is a problem for those on the islands who do not have regular access to such supermarkets.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> No, I mean an unnecessary amount of underlining, capitals and italics, there's a difference between a simple message and a simpleton's message.



You are spot on about the use of underlining, capitals, and italics.

All it does is detract from the simplicity of a message, rather than reinforce it.

It never, ever, works, and should never, ever be done.

The simpleton in this message is the person who set that style.

The person who composed the prose has done a good job.


----------



## PK99 (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> No, I mean an unnecessary amount of underlining, capitals and italics, there's a difference between a simple message and a simpleton's message.



I'm comfortable reading and understanding blocks of text with no hints as to the key phrases and messages, as are you. Sadly, there are many people who are not. While there are too many of the textual and stylistc features you note for my taste, I can also see past them. Would you like different sets of text for we privileged litterati and a dumbed down text for everyone else?


----------



## Venod (19 Mar 2020)

I interrupt the COVID-19 pandemic to bring you my latest episode.......
Last night I went to the supermarket to buy a bag of food for my dog.
Already in line, a woman behind me asked me if I had a dog.
I stared at her (those who know me will imagine my gaze) ...but then why would I be buying dog food...right? 
So on impulse I told her no, that I didn’t have a dog, that I was starting the dog food diet again, and that I probably shouldn't because I ended up in the hospital the last time, but i did weigh 4 kilos less! And you all know me, I love a good diet, story of my life!
I told her that it was the perfect diet and that all you had to do is carry a few biscuits in your pocket and eat one or two every time you feel hungry (I have to mention that practically everyone in line was interested in my story).
Frightened, the woman asks me if I ended up in the hospital because the dog food had poisoned me. I answered...of course not!
I was admitted because I bent down to sniff the bum of a German Shepherd and I was hit by a truck.
I thought the man behind her was going to have a heart attack...he was laughing so hard!

We need to laugh more! Have a GREAT DAY


----------



## Mo1959 (19 Mar 2020)

I see Michel Barnier has been confirmed as having Covid 19.


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> I'm comfortable reading and understanding blocks of text with no hints as to the key phrases and messages, as are you. Sadly, there are many people who are not. While there are too many of the textual and stylistc features you note for my taste, I can also see past them. Would you like different sets of text for we privileged litterati and a dumbed down text for everyone else?


I've read the letters that the bosses of Tesco, Sainsbury's, Morrisons, Home Bargains, Iceland etc, etc, and umpteen of my suppliers, have sent out. They have all managed to not only avoid such textual and stylistic features, they have also all managed to communicate significantly more detail than is in the letter from the boss of the country. I wouldn't have thought they think all of their customers are members of the "litterati" (sic) but they saw fit not to dumb it down.


----------



## Landsurfer (19 Mar 2020)

My 16 year old is furious that his college is closing ...... " I've got too much to do to be off school" .... was his bitter retort last night ... There's only 400 pupils at his college and all the teachers are still there ..... more news on Friday he's been told.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Mar 2020)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETZeBv1WAAEuvxX?format=jpg&name=small
Interesting breakdown of positive testing Swiss, separated by gender. Women more susceptible from 10 to 50, men from 50 upwards.


----------



## CanucksTraveller (19 Mar 2020)

I had nowhere else to put this but I felt I had to vent, apologies.... 

A lady friend of mine over in Essex became ill 2 days ago, with all the Corona virus symptoms, high temperature, sore joints, persistent cough. 
On seeing her starting to develop symptoms, her husband immediately sodded off into London, stating that his company had suddenly laid on hotel rooms for them as they were in such an important role and needed to be close to the office. (He's an insolvency lawyer so erm, no, clearly not even close to being a key worker). She's now alone and ill with no-one to care for her. He said he'll see her in a couple of weeks. 

Notwithstanding that he's flagrantly ignored the advice from Government, I don't believe for one minute that any company is asking their employees who live in commuting distance to stay in hotels. He is something of a beer aficionado, so I rather suspect that he's in a pub eating crisps and drinking beer while his wife suffers at home. 

Some people really are despicable.


----------



## Mo1959 (19 Mar 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> I had nowhere else to put this but I felt I had to vent, apologies....
> 
> A lady friend of mine over in Essex became ill 2 days ago, with all the Corona virus symptoms, high temperature, sore joints, persistent cough.
> On seeing her starting to develop symptoms, her husband immediately sodded off into London, stating that his company had suddenly laid on hotel rooms for them as they were in such an important role and needed to be close to the office. (He's an insolvency lawyer so erm, no, clearly not even close to being a key worker). She's now alone and ill with no-one to care for her. He said he'll see her in a couple of weeks.
> ...


If it was me, I think a call to a locksmith to change the locks would be very tempting!


----------



## Rezillo (19 Mar 2020)

One of the outcomes of lesser importance so far is the carefully orchestrated vanity display of books on shelves behind pundits being interviewed at home.

On a large tv, you can make out all the spine titles, although some have taken care to have a couple or so with their front covers facing the camera, just in case we might not make them out. Not a low-brow book to be seen.


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

Mrs 73 has heard from SIL. BIL on way home from work high temp and feels like crap. Turns out a few days ago a guy came to work who mrs was self isolating. He did not feel too good but came in anyway. By time they found out and sent it home it was too late.
So now SIL is in a right flap now Mrs 73 has been trying to claim her down. It's the two young kids she is more bothered about. 
(The guy had no worry about staying off the company are fine about people bring off and pay them. So it's not an issue.)

This is how it happens folks we have to start pulling together or we have little hope of sorting this anytime soon.


----------



## CanucksTraveller (19 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> If it was me, I think a call to a locksmith to change the locks would be very tempting!



I want to say that to her, in fact I want to point out that for me that'd be grounds for divorce (I seem to remember something about caring for each other in sickness being in marriage vows). But it's not my place and I'm just having to make sympathetic noises and bite my lip to a large extent.


----------



## Rezillo (19 Mar 2020)

Went to our local farm shop this morning. A school support worker shopper, the only other customer there (we had a slightly surreal conversation across each end of the shop), was saying he's just been ordered back to work because his school is opening up to people who are happy with having their children attend. Words fail me.

Anyway, that's us staying at home now for the foreseeable future.


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Operation fresh food and pasta and tea a success. Operation get milk later.


Good luck with the milk I've not found any for 3 days. Going to try again later.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> One of the outcomes of lesser importance so far is the carefully orchestrated vanity display of books on shelves behind pundits being interviewed at home.
> 
> On a large tv, you can make out all the spine titles, although some have taken care to have a couple or so with their front covers facing the camera, just in case we might not make them out. Not a low-brow book to be seen.



My company has set up Microsoft Teams so those working at home can video-conference (booooo!).
I noticed my line manager had a perfectly framed background of his ornate fireplace and chandelier - nobber.
Our first group conference, because of a few prior phone calls, the sales managers all wore silly hats 

I have a projector and a screen, I wonder if I can project an amusing backdrop for the next one?

(last year I was on holiday during a sales meeting but joined it by Skype. My wife arranged for a bevvy of attractive women to join me in a jacuzzi by the pool as she held the phone up  )


----------



## Unkraut (19 Mar 2020)

There is very little to cheer you up at the moment, but the Robert Bosch hospital in Stuttgart is organising concerts in the hospital grounds. The idea is to open all the windows so the patients can hear, and hopefully cheer them up a bit as visits are of course no longer allowed (I avoided saying 'forbidden'!). I thought that was a nice touch.

@deptfordmarmoset the figures here show 55% of cases are men for the over fifties.

Less good news: the police are having to break up corona parties amongst the yoof. 200 to 300 gathering together. It may not matter so much if they get infected, but it will matter if they pass it on to grandma.


----------



## Mo1959 (19 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Less good news: the police are having to break up corona parties amongst the yoof. 200 to 300 gathering together. It may not matter so much if they get infected, but it will matter if they pass it on to grandma.


This is what worries me about our schools being off from Friday. There isn’t the discipline in this country to keep them at home, so I can’t help thinking there will large groups of youngsters roaming around, in and out of each others homes and any shops that are still open. Could be a bunch of super carriers as they will probably have no or minimal symptoms themselves. Hope their parents can mostly keep them occupied at home.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> @deptfordmarmoset the figures here show 55% of cases are men for the over fifties.


So that echoes with the Swiss figures, though, given the longer life expectancy of women, the older age groups will have fewer men, making the true positive testing rate for men far, far higher. Do you know if there's such a preponderance of women in their 20s testing positive as well?


----------



## vickster (19 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> If it was me, I think a call to a locksmith to change the locks would be very tempting!


And the divorce department of his firm...


----------



## randynewmanscat (19 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> Farage's account appears to have been hacked by Trump...
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1240341861119791104?s=20



Such useful and constructive words at this time. He's feeding his Daily Express fans, they are on the same page. I bit my tongue to visit that midden and reported 30 posts for racial slurs. Serious racial slurs that had been up for an entire day, against Chinese, black people and Muslims. Worse I have ever seen in the below the line slime, by a long way.


----------



## randynewmanscat (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I'm hoping this chap has got a shop
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/danyomii/status/1240241784212643840?s=20



I'm going to send that to a friend who emailed me his experience of Wednesday evening. Here is what he said. 
"Went to Sainsbury's yesterday 6pm for beer. No lager no meat no chicken no veg no milk no eggs no pasta no bread and I mean NONE.
Loads of other stuff not there.
Limit of two for each item.
Two would have done".


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> And the divorce department of his firm...


Why not see if they have a friends and family discount..


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I'm going to send that to a friend who emailed me his experience of Wednesday evening. Here is what he said.
> "Went to Sainsbury's yesterday 6pm for beer. No lager no meat no chicken no veg no milk no eggs no pasta no bread and I mean NONE.
> Loads of other stuff not there.
> Limit of two for each item.
> Two would have done".



I think they need to have strict rations, and have it enforced with security at main supermarkets, people have been asked to play nice and they have ignored this request.

On a plus library is empty and we can take 40 books per family, my 6yr old has got a comprehensive reading list now.


----------



## randynewmanscat (19 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Unfortunately, how important your job is to society does not equate to the money you will be paid. I can't remember when it ever was, although it does appear to be getting worse. It is all about market forces and about how many are available and prepared to, and can meet the skill requirements of any job.
> 
> This will never change.


People need to organise their labour and force government to strong arm business leaders to the table. It won't happen. I earned 7 times more than the contract cleaner at my last office and 9 times less than the CEO of the disaster capitalist fund that gutted the place. 
It could be worse, in India you need a power of notation to describe the differential.


----------



## CanucksTraveller (19 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Good luck with the milk I've not found any for 3 days. Going to try again later.



It's really strange isn't it, that while there are shortages across the country there are actually different shortages in different places. All supermarkets here are pretty much fully stocked with loads of milk, all types, all brands. 
@glasgowcyclist mentioned earlier in another thread that they had plenty of meat up there, but all my local shops are completely out of meat full stop. They have been for about a week. Not a piece of chicken to be seen. 

I think the constant for all of us is this obsession with loo roll. I have about 4 left and when they go I'm just going to showers and a flannel, I don't see the emergency in a lack of paper. 
Finding some flour would be nice. Not for me, but literally all my elderly neighbours have requested it on their shopping lists despite having bread on there too. I wonder if they're planning secret night time pancake parties?


----------



## mudsticks (19 Mar 2020)

At last.

An explanation for these things.. 

They're for smuggling contraband paper goods.


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> It's really strange isn't it, that while there are shortages across the country there are actually different shortages in different places. All supermarkets here are pretty much fully stocked with loads of milk, all types, all brands.
> @glasgowcyclist mentioned earlier in another thread that they had plenty of meat up there, but all my local shops are completely out of meat full stop. They have been for about a week. Not a piece of chicken to be seen.
> 
> I think the constant for all of us is this obsession with loo roll. I have about 4 left and when they go I'm just going to showers and a flannel, I don't see the emergency in a lack of paper.
> Finding some flour would be nice. Not for me, but literally all my elderly neighbours have requested it on their shopping lists despite having bread on there too. I wonder if they're planning secret night time pancake parties?



very true


----------



## vickster (19 Mar 2020)

M&S at Heathrow T2 had plenty of milk...try an airport!


----------



## vickster (19 Mar 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Finding some flour would be nice. Not for me, but literally all my elderly neighbours have requested it on their shopping lists despite having bread on there too. I wonder if they're planning secret night time pancake parties?


Virtual WI cake baking sessions I reckon


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> M&S at Heathrow T2 had plenty of milk...try an airport!


it really is a different world down south


----------



## Unkraut (19 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> So that echoes with the Swiss figures, though, given the longer life expectancy of women, the older age groups will have fewer men, making the true positive testing rate for men far, far higher. Do you know if there's such a preponderance of women in their 20s testing positive as well?


The Robert Koch Institute fortunately does the figures in English, and the link gives the current situation that is updated at midnight every day. The average here is 56% for men at the moment, and the section you want is on p. 3 just after the map. Shows men as the majority across all age ranges. You will note on your way through the fairly rapid increase in the number of infections even from yesterday, although mercifully the death rate has been relatively low to date.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-03-19-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile


----------



## vickster (19 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> it really is a different world down south


No M&S at manchester?


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Mar 2020)

Seriously...


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> In the UK working in pharmacy will become permanently like closure/catching up from closure conditions these coming days/weeks/months. I think it'll completely collapse and you could have a lot of support staff off sick or walking out. They are working for minimum wage anyway.


Our local small pharmacy (two villages over - still Norfolk) seemed to have stopped sales of retail products (they had only maybe 10m of shelves of it anyway) and only do prescriptions and over-the-counter products, with the counter doubled in depth (you could barely reach the staff unless you jumped onto the counter now), contactless payment preferred and customers queuing 1.5m apart (apart from the refuseniks). Postbox in the car park for repeat requests.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Mar 2020)

Panic buying solution is easy.

Close all supermarket car parks. Use the car park for the queue with sufficient spacing. Only so many allowed in the shop at any one time. Shoppers must arrive on foot or by bike. No trollies, baskets only. You can only buy what you can carry. Can't carry it, then fark off.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> You mean a simple message in simple language that most people can understand?


What exactly did you understand from it? It seemed devoid of any detail and packed full of jingoistic rhetoric that will further fuel the panic buying to build support for the forthcoming martial law. You can really tell Boris is a lying journalist and not a statesman at times like these.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> I was like John McClane prowling the Nakatomi Plaza yesterday, but I managed to come home with a bag of flour.


You had to crawl in through the heating ducts?!? Or was it just that you didn't want to queue?


----------



## Sterlo (19 Mar 2020)

Just an idea if you're short of loo roll, order something small from Amazon, they usually send it in a big box packed with loads of tissue paper as packaging. Problem solved.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> One of the outcomes of lesser importance so far is the carefully orchestrated vanity display of books on shelves behind pundits being interviewed at home.


Yes, I find it rather odd. I have two places at home where I take video calls: one has one of work's conference logo banners set up in the background (partly to hide a huge stack of regulatory paperwork); and the other is a plain wall. Any effort the video call software spends encoding detail of books is effort that it's not spending on your face, so overloading the backdrop means you get to look like a blockier, jerkier jerk.

The other thing that I find odd is how many people don't put their laptop or phone on a stand or at least a stack of books to raise the camera to eye level, even for TV. You can see some of the male callees have more hair up their nose than on their head, which seems a very odd feature to emphasise.


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Mar 2020)

If I report these inflated price items on Ebay, will they even look into it?


----------



## Dave7 (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I'm hoping this chap has got a shop
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/danyomii/status/1240241784212643840?s=20



Uhmm... part of me hope he gets burgled.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> If I report these inflated price items on Ebay, will they even look into it?


Yes.

And double their fee %, probably.

I mean, how hard would it be to hold all attempted posts of "calpol" and other keywords for moderation?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Yes, I find it rather odd. I have two places at home where I take video calls: one has one of work's conference logo banners set up in the background (partly to hide a huge stack of regulatory paperwork); and the other is a plain wall. Any effort the video call software spends encoding detail of books is effort that it's not spending on your face, so overloading the backdrop means you get to look like a blockier, jerkier jerk.
> 
> The other thing that I find odd is how many people don't put their laptop or phone on a stand or at least a stack of books to raise the camera to eye level, even for TV. You can see some of the male callees have more hair up their nose than on their head, which seems a very odd feature to emphasise.


<taking notes>


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Yes.
> 
> And double their fee %, probably.
> 
> I mean, how hard would it be to hold all attempted posts of "calpol" and other keywords for moderation?



OK I have reported it, I would bar the account totally, that's totally disgusting.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> OK I have reported it, I would bar the account totally, that's totally disgusting.


Thank you for trying. Can you add it to your watchlist and see if it disappears? It would be nice to know if they're doing anything.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> OK I have reported it, I would bar the account totally, that's totally disgusting.


It had already been taken down when bidding went over £1000. There's plenty of calpol on ebay at normal(ish) prices so I'm betting this was someone bidding up their own listing for social media clicks.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Calpol-I...243302?hash=item59488c4ba6:g:vX4AAOSwD3decp1a


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> It had already been taken down when bidding went over £1000. There's plenty of calpol on ebay at normal(ish) prices so I'm betting this was someone bidding up their own listing for social media clicks.
> 
> https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Calpol-I...243302?hash=item59488c4ba6:g:vX4AAOSwD3decp1a



may be, but still it's not helping the situation.


----------



## perplexed (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> You had to crawl in through the heating ducts?!? Or was it just that you didn't want to queue?



Took me forever to pick the broken glass out of my feet...


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> The Robert Koch Institute fortunately does the figures in English, and the link gives the current situation that is updated at midnight every day. The average here is 56% for men at the moment, and the section you want is on p. 3 just after the map. Shows men as the majority across all age ranges. You will note on your way through the fairly rapid increase in the number of infections even from yesterday, although mercifully the death rate has been relatively low to date.
> 
> https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-03-19-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile


Thanks @Unkraut


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Mar 2020)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5q-PIN3KSE


----------



## Dave7 (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> You had to crawl in through the heating ducts?!? Or was it just that you didn't want to queue?


It was the 93 people he shot on the way in that worries me.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Mar 2020)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> Took me forever to pick the broken glass out of my feet...


Plexiglas sales have increased massively, I saw on the TV news today. I thought it was shops installing sneeze-guards to protect checkout staff, but maybe it's the fault of people schieß-ing the Fensters.


----------



## Rusty Nails (19 Mar 2020)

I was beginning to feel a bit depressed, but luckily @YukonBoy comes along to lighten the mood.


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> No M&S at manchester?


Like i'm going to get in the car and just pop out for some at the airport.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Mar 2020)

Quantas to suspend all international flights from Australia end of this month.


----------



## vickster (19 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Like i'm going to get in the car and just pop out for some at the airport.


It wasn't an entirely serious suggestion, I was just pointing out that M&S at Heathrow had milk yesterday as someone said they couldn't find any...


----------



## Fab Foodie (19 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> It wasn't an entirely serious suggestion, I was just pointing out that M&S at Heathrow had milk yesterday as someone said they couldn't find any...


Right now, Heathrow is probably the best place to self-isolate....


----------



## marinyork (19 Mar 2020)

Interesting press conference. All.about the tests.

Journalists rightly sceptical of Boris's 250,000 tests a day as on about 6000 PCR now, said 10000 and still repeating we will be at 25,000 soon.

Very positive on other stuff to do with tests though.


----------



## snorri (19 Mar 2020)

Two cruise ships SAGA SAPPHIRE and SPIRIT of DISCOVERY berthed at Tilbury have been offered to serve as hospital ships. The former is 39 years old, but the Discovery only entered trade last year.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Mar 2020)

40% of hospitalisations in the USA are 20-54 years old. Interesting compared to the data from other countries so far. This has come from the US centre for disease Control (CDC).


----------



## Fab Foodie (19 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Interesting press conference. All.about the tests.
> 
> Journalists rightly sceptical of Boris's 250,000 tests a day as on about 6000 PCR now, said 10000 and still repeating we will be at 25,000 soon.
> 
> Very positive on other stuff to do with tests though.


Very surprised no further action on London....


----------



## Milzy (19 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> 40% of hospitalisations in the USA are 20-54 years old. Interesting compared to the data from other countries so far. This has come from the US centre for disease Control (CDC).


They're the most unfit people ever.


----------



## Rocky (19 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> They're the most unfit people ever.


MORE FAKE NEWS.... please stop making this stuff up. It really doesn't help


----------



## marinyork (19 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Very surprised no further action on London....



I am surprised, but one or the reasons why the 5 sets of measures includint 3 lockdowns didn't work as well as they should was leaks to the press and people not sticking to it.


----------



## pjd57 (19 Mar 2020)

Who thought putting Boris on live TV every day would reassure the public


----------



## vickster (19 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> 40% of hospitalisations in the USA are 20-54 years old. Interesting compared to the data from other countries so far. This has come from the US centre for disease Control (CDC).


Obesity, diabetes, smoking are risk factors affecting younger Americans?


----------



## Adam4868 (19 Mar 2020)

He said feck all as usual.Waffled on about "we can beat it" really the way were acting doesn't fill me with confidence.
Asking do we find these meeting useful...FFS.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

pjd57 said:


> Who thought putting Boris on live TV every day would reassure the public


Accent of a second class Churchill reading the script of a second class David Brent!


----------



## Rocky (19 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Obesity, diabetes, smoking are risk factors affecting younger Americans?


But I think it is a little early to say that these are the major risk factors for a poor prognosis. The research has not yet been done. One paper (in the Lancet) has been published on 191 Chinese patients. It is way too soon to say that this is what is going on in the west or the US.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Asking do we find these meeting useful...FFS.


He was asking his journalist buddies, not us.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Mar 2020)

Claiming to be able to turn the tide makes me think he really believes he's a royal daffodil

I actually used the proper spelling for Canute but autocorrupt intervened.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (19 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Amazing "information".
> Just one question.
> How are you privy to this info/fact?
> Do please elaborate, including source.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Claiming to be able to turn the tide makes me think he really believes he's a royal daffodil


I assume the filter eats daffodil but what about Canute?


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> 40% of hospitalisations in the USA are 20-54 years old. Interesting compared to the data from other countries so far. This has come from the US centre for disease Control (CDC).


They do have a bad public health record so more detail on the figures is needed for a real like for like compare.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> I assume the filter eats daffodil but what about Canute?


Yes, I spotted that!


----------



## glasgowcyclist (19 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Uhmm... part of me hope he gets burgled.



Aye, by 400 rats.


----------



## pjd57 (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Accent of a second class Churchill reading the script of a second class David Brent!


Contrast with Nicola Sturgeon or Leo Varadker !

Clear concise presentation of the facts as they know them.
If they don't know , they look at the camera and say so.

Meanwhile in Downing Street....


----------



## Rocky (19 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> They do have a bad public health record so more detail on the figures is needed for a real like for like compare.


I agree - we simply don't know. It may be that people who have died have a genetic predisposition and that overall health has little bearing. The other data coming from the medical staff who died, is that in treating patients they took on a heavy viral load. It may be the level of exposure to the virus that is the determining factor.

It's very easy to blame things on people with a low level of fitness but I don't think the evidence supports this.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Accent of a second class Churchill reading the script of a second class David Brent!



This is what the public wanted. A clown rather than a serious politician.


----------



## numbnuts (19 Mar 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> This is what the public wanted. A clown rather than a serious politician.


And maybe you missed your vocation


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

Tesco from this Sunday and ever Sunday are allowing NHS staff and Tesco staff. To start shopping from 9 am before the tills open at 10


----------



## Adam4868 (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> He was asking his journalist buddies, not us.


And ? We're you not watching or something ?


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> 40% of hospitalisations in the USA are 20-54 years old. Interesting compared to the data from other countries so far. This has come from the US centre for disease Control (CDC).



as has been said multiple health reasons even in the young, when I was in the USA last the overweight people and the cheap food with huge portions sizes, sadly I’m not surprised to see younger people on the list.


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

Just been to Tesco, usual story of no chicken, bog roll, cereals, canned goods, sliced bread, soap, eggs, pet food, tea, coffee, fruit, veg and so on.
But what a delightful ballet it was, people sauntering around with their very best "I'm not panic buying, just picking something up for tea" faces on (me included let me assure you) and politely nodding with a jovial "Excuse me", "No, after you", terrified to offend as we practised our social distancing while we pirouetted our trollies round one another.


----------



## Blue Hills (19 Mar 2020)

Been away from home/London - back about a week ago - haven't managed any real food shopping yet.
My stocks lower than they normally are - usually have lots because of the way I shop by bike.
Set off to Aldi this morning on the bike - entry to store limited. massive queue outside right round the car park - didn't fancy standing next to folk for maybe an hour - off to another one - someone leaving at about 9:15 had been there since 7 and found folk in line then - said a fight had broken out earlier with folks grabbing stuff. Smaller queue there - (shop had closed front door - all entry at back) but someone said there wouldn't be much left. Area I live in has a posh butchers and a queue outside there with entry to shop limited. Somewhat mystified as to why folk would bother to queue for posh meat.
Was going to go in sainsburys but changed my mind half way through locking up.
Plan to wait a week before really trying again - trust the madness will have subsided by then and shops are already limiting stuff (latest mail from Lidl says 4 of key items per person) - trust that even the nutjobs will have given up with the pointless fag of it by then.


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Been away from home/London - back about a week ago - haven't managed any real food shopping yet.
> My stocks lower than they normally are - usually have lots because of the way I shop by bike.
> Set off to Aldi this morning on the bike - entry to store limited. massive queue outside right round the car park - didn't fancy standing next to folk for maybe an hour - off to another one - someone leaving at about 9:15 had been there since 7 and found folk in line then - said a fight had broken out earlier with folks grabbing stuff. Smaller queue there - (shop had closed front door - all entry at back) but someone said there wouldn't be much left. Area I live in has a posh butchers and a queue outside there with entry to shop limited. Somewhat mystified as to why folk would bother to queue for posh meat.
> Was going to go in sainsburys but changed my mind half way through locking up.
> Plan to wait a week before really trying again - trust the madness will have subsided by then and shops are already limiting stuff (latest mail from Lidl says 4 of key items per person) - trust that even the nutjobs will have given up with the pointless fag of it by then.


Gracious, it would appear we have a far higher class of panic shopper round here, although, there wasn't any panic shopping of course, cos there wasn't really anything left to panic over, I would imagine I'd missed all the fun and games.


----------



## Blue Hills (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Gracious, it would appear we have a far higher class of panic shopper round here, although, there wasn't any panic shopping of course, cos there wasn't really anything left to panic over, I would imagine I'd missed all the fun and games.


i should stress that the queues were orderly.


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> i should stress that the queues were orderly.


Well, we are British!


----------



## nickyboy (19 Mar 2020)

So to our London correspondents, the picture being painted is our reckless, bacchanalian capital-dwelllers couldn't care less and will continue to pursue their hedonistic social lives until London explodes with CV

Is that really the case or is it very selective reporting?

FWIW here in the hinterlands pubs, restaurants, cafes aren't empty but they're, at a guess, running about 80% down on normal


----------



## Milzy (19 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Amazing "information".
> Just one question.
> How are you privy to this info/fact?
> Do please elaborate, including source.


It's classified.


----------



## Rocky (19 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> It's classified.


It’s lies


----------



## Wobblers (19 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> 40% of hospitalisations in the USA are 20-54 years old. Interesting compared to the data from other countries so far. This has come from the US centre for disease Control (CDC).



Very few of the under 20s have been hospitalised in any country. I suspect the 20 to 54 range represents those who are most likely to have health insurance from their employers.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> Very few of the under 20s have been hospitalised in any country. I suspect the 20 to 54 range represents those who are most likely to have health insurance from their employers.



Very few of all age ranges have been hospitalised. It’s just the percentages are higher in older age ranges.

The point is the younger adults are in for a shock if they think they won’t notice getting it. Many many of them will, maybe not hospital , but still pretty horrible.


----------



## Milzy (19 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It’s lies


Prove it. You don't create a global recession just because of a bug that kills off the weak/vulnerable. They said Brexit was going to be financially catastrophic.


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

What ever Boris did or not say or how little you rate him. The over all message was clear we can get over this but we all need to start playing by the rules. To look out for others and yes the age old message whether you like it or not is wash your hands. 
Or state will get heavy and some emergency powers are known not to go once you get them. 
In simple words it will get worse a lot worse the NHS will just get over whelmed and many will more will die some of whom need not. 
That maybe one for your family , close friend or even you. 
In the end the stats and the big details don't matter to most they won't help us day to day. Playing by the rules however will.


----------



## Rocky (19 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> Prove it. You don't create a global recession just because of a bug that kills off the weak/vulnerable. They said Brexit was going to be financially catastrophic.


You should be ashamed of yourself for spreading fake news. Large numbers of people are dying, families are suffering and all you can do is post lies.


----------



## Wobblers (19 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Very few of all age ranges have been hospitalised. It’s just the percentages are higher in older age ranges.
> 
> The point is the younger adults are in for a shock if they think they won’t notice getting it. Many many of them will, maybe not hospital , but still pretty horrible.



Look at the data from China and Italy. There is a very strong correlation between age and likelihood of severe illness. Exactly why this is so is at present unknown.


----------



## Blue Hills (19 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> Prove it. You don't create a global recession just because of a bug that kills off the weak/vulnerable. They said Brexit was going to be financially catastrophic.





Milzy said:


> Prove it. You don't create a global recession just because of a bug that kills off the weak/vulnerable. They said Brexit was going to be financially catastrophic.


well you've been added to my vaccine list. Thanks.


----------



## Milzy (19 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> You should be ashamed of yourself for spreading fake news. Large numbers of people are dying, families are suffering and all you can do is post lies.


You don't know all the facts. It isn't spreading lies it's just theorys up for discussion/debate.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> Look at the data from China and Italy. There is a very strong correlation between age and likelihood of severe illness. Exactly why this is so is at present unknown.



There is a greater likelihood but it is not zero in younger adults, far from it.


----------



## Rocky (19 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> You don't know all the facts. It isn't spreading lies it's just theorys up for discussion/debate.


I know enough to tell that you are spreading fake news. I’ll continue to call out your lies whenever you post them.


----------



## MarkF (19 Mar 2020)

First cycle ride of the year (I know😶), me and my daughter cycled Shipley to Bingley, we were going to Skipton but changed out minds, turned around and headed to Leeds. Nice afternoon out, maybe 35 miles. As usual, once I (eventually) start there is no stopping me so my goal after we returned was a to cycle out for a loaf of bread, I went to Sainsburys, then B & M Home Stores (next door), then Aldi, then Morrisons, then the Co-op, not one loaf of bread of any description, not even a cack manky store baked thing. I am breadless and knackered.


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> What ever Boris did or not say or how little you rate him. The over all message was clear we can get over this but we all need to start playing by the rules. To look out for others and yes the age old message whether you like it or not is wash your hands.
> Or state will get heavy and some emergency powers are known not to go once you get them.
> In simple words it will get worse a lot worse the NHS will just get over whelmed and many will more will die some of whom need not.
> That maybe one for your family , close friend or even you.
> In the end the stats and the big details don't matter to most they won't help us day to day. Playing by the rules however will.


Like Arnie says.


View: https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1240687729484222464?s=20


----------



## MarkF (19 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Tesco from this Sunday and ever Sunday are allowing NHS staff and Tesco staff. To start shopping from 9 am before the tills open at 10


Now you are talking, actually useful. Bollox to MacD and their crass publicity stunt.


----------



## Smokin Joe (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Just been to Tesco, usual story of no chicken, bog roll, cereals, canned goods, sliced bread, soap, eggs, pet food, tea, coffee, fruit, veg and so on.
> But what a delightful ballet it was, people sauntering around with their very best "I'm not panic buying, just picking something up for tea" faces on (me included let me assure you) and politely nodding with a jovial "Excuse me", "No, after you", terrified to offend as we practised our social distancing while we pirouetted our trollies round one another.


I had to go into Haverfordwest this afternoon Mugshot, and I've never seen it so quiet. Looking in the pubs and cafes as I passed they were all nearly empty, as were the buses I saw on the road. And Fishguard is like a ghost town.


----------



## Unkraut (19 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> not even a cack manky store baked thing


That, I can assure you, is not something limited to Britain!


----------



## AuroraSaab (19 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> Very few of the under 20s have been hospitalised in any country. I suspect the 20 to 54 range represents those who are most likely to have health insurance from their employers.


I think the point about insurance is probably true. I once read a book on obesity though (might have been on the China Study data) which said that there was a study of autopsy results in a county in Texas in a particular given year in which every single autopsy of people over 16 had evidence of heart disease that was visible to the naked eye. Bearing in mind that most deaths of young people will have been accident, murder, or suicide related, not from disease, that is a pretty scary insight into US health.


----------



## fossyant (19 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> What ever Boris did or not say or how little you rate him. The over all message was clear we can get over this but we all need to start playing by the rules. To look out for others and yes the age old message whether you like it or not is wash your hands.
> Or state will get heavy and some emergency powers are known not to go once you get them.
> In simple words it will get worse a lot worse the NHS will just get over whelmed and many will more will die some of whom need not.
> That maybe one for your family , close friend or even you.
> In the end the stats and the big details don't matter to most they won't help us day to day. Playing by the rules however will.



I thought it was pretty straight forward - please do what we are asking, or we may change the rules. Better we do this or it will get messy like in Italy/Spain.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Like Arnie says.
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1240687729484222464?s=20




I will swap houses with him. If I lived in a mansion...


----------



## Rusty Nails (19 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I know enough to tell that you are spreading fake news. I’ll continue to call out your lies whenever you post them.



You'll only get him more excited.


----------



## Rusty Nails (19 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> I had to go into Haverfordwest this afternoon Mugshot, and I've never seen it so quiet. Looking in the pubs and cafes as I passed they were all nearly empty, as were the buses I saw on the road. And *Fishguard is like a ghost town.*



Fishguard is a ghost town.


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> And Fishguard is like a ghost town.


Like my shop!


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> And ? We're you not watching or something ?


Of course I wasn't watching. I was at work, so it was on the radio. It's not like it's a Grand Tour or something that I'd give monitor space over to!


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Gracious, it would appear we have a far higher class of panic shopper round here, although, there wasn't any panic shopping of course, cos there wasn't really anything left to panic over, I would imagine I'd missed all the fun and games.


Went to a few shops first thing today, finding the few items we needed eventually. News from Norfolk: bread and bog roll are back. Shops are limiting bulk buying and it seems to be working where it's being done. Milk is low but available. Tinned goods seem plentiful in the bucket shops but not the supermarkets. Pharmacies have paracetamol again but are restricting sale amount.

I thought it odd that small tonic cans have almost sold out while spirits were not noticeably depleted, or even much touched. Then I remembered the hopes that anti-malaria drugs help with this virus and tonic contains quinine... 

It seemed noticeably quieter in most of town today, but the retail park was full of people driving very badly, on their phones or one gentleman was eating a huge floppy pasty while failing to stop at a crossing - thankfully there are cycleways through the retail park, so I just beware when crossing, even with a green bike showing.

It seemed busier through my village but 1. it's bin day which always causes queues and 2. there's a chilled/tinned food distribution warehouse here and they looked very very busy, with pallets in the doorway of one unit visible from the road, which is unusual. Amusingly, the number of lorries entering/exiting is disrupting traffic flow so I could cross from the cycleway to turnings and shops more easily than usual.


----------



## Buck (19 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> Prove it. You don't create a global recession just because of a bug that kills off the weak/vulnerable. They said Brexit was going to be financially catastrophic.



I’ve read your last three posts and all I can say is what the heck are you on about? Don’t throw your conspiracy theories around. You are doing nothing helpful. Evidence it or move along.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> So to our London correspondents, the picture being painted is our reckless, bacchanalian capital-dwelllers couldn't care less and will continue to pursue their hedonistic social lives until London explodes with CV
> 
> Is that really the case or is it very selective reporting?


Look East ran an item last night claiming that rich Londoners are moving to their second homes against government advice, probably bringing the virus with them, and then going out to cafes and restaurants because they've left almost no food in and the panic buyers mean they can't buy it after arrival, so coastal resort infection rates may quickly catch up with London. I'm told there's been a similar article in The Times today.


----------



## Mike_P (19 Mar 2020)

Look North (Leeds) tonight featured a crying nurse who having come off a 48 hour shift could not find any fruit or veg and who made the point that the mindless hoarders would need people like her in their greatest need.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> [...] my goal after we returned was a to cycle out for a loaf of bread, I went to Sainsburys, then B & M Home Stores (next door), then Aldi, then Morrisons, then the Co-op, not one loaf of bread of any description, not even a cack manky store baked thing. I am breadless and knackered.


As far as I can tell (if you don't want to bake your own), the optimal strategy today was to hit one of them with an in-store-bakery just after the early morning panickers have left. The shelves of plastic pap will have gone, but the last wave of baked cack will still be plentiful - I suppose it takes a few minutes to cook and the panickers don't wait that long before heading to the next shop.


----------



## Milzy (19 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> I’ve read your last three posts and all I can say is what the heck are you on about? Don’t throw your conspiracy theories around. You are doing nothing helpful. Evidence it or move along.


I'm not allowed to discuss conspiracy theories anymore as it's upsetting people the C.C Gestapo says. Snuffed out the freedom of speech so moved along.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Look North (Leeds) tonight featured a crying nurse who having come off a 48 hour shift could not find any fruit or veg and who made the point that the mindless hoarders would need people like her in their greatest need.


I do find these variations mystifying. It's been mainly the packet goods and now the tins/jars that local panickers have been hoarding and fresh fruit and veg has not seemed short here at any time yet, but I suppose we are surrounded by fields and greenhouses.

Now I've posted that, I fear for the next greengrocery run I make!


----------



## glasgowcyclist (19 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> I'm not allowed to discuss conspiracy theories anymore as it's upsetting people the C.C Gestapo says. Snuffed out the freedom of speech so moved along.



Nobody is stopping you from discuss anything, you’re being asked to evidence your claims. Given they’re a pile of crap, I’m not surprised you’re taking the easy way out and playing the faux freedom of speech card.

Nice try.


----------



## vickster (19 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> I'm not allowed to discuss conspiracy theories anymore as it's upsetting people the C.C Gestapo says. Snuffed out the freedom of speech so moved along.


Start a separate thread in cafe where it belongs for your nonsense 👍


----------



## Proto (19 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Fishguard is a ghost town.



Fishguard is a town? Are you sure?


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Look North (Leeds) tonight featured a crying nurse who having come off a 48 hour shift could not find any fruit or veg and who made the point that the mindless hoarders would need people like her in their greatest need.


Clearly had got to breaking point and this tip her over. It's shocking really to have watch it she just wanted some fruit and veg it's not a lot to ask. Given she will have been close up with this virus and it's effects for moment she arrived to moment she left.


----------



## Adam4868 (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> As far as I can tell (if you don't want to bake your own), the optimal strategy today was to hit one of them with an in-store-bakery just after the early morning panickers have left. The shelves of plastic pap will have gone, but the last wave of baked cack will still be plentiful - I suppose it takes a few minutes to cook and the panickers don't wait that long before heading to the next shop.


Luckily we still have a few bakeries,and I don't mean Greggs ! If I ask the day before they'll allways save me a loaf or rolls.I try my best not to spend money at supermarkets,I do buy some things but try and shop local if I can.


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> I'm not allowed to discuss conspiracy theories anymore as it's upsetting people the C.C Gestapo says. Snuffed out the freedom of speech so moved along.


That's not quite true now is it? I remember you doing the same yonks ago in the old brexit thread, you'd copy and paste some old bollocks from Facebook to get a reaction, that's not trying to engage in a discussion and if people don't know you're pulling their leg, particularly on more sensitive subjects, it's hardly surprising you get a cease and desist.

Edit : what's more my Jonathan Frakes vid got deleted in the fallout and I've been waiting to use that for ages!!!


----------



## Buck (19 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> I'm not allowed to discuss conspiracy theories anymore as it's upsetting people the C.C Gestapo says. Snuffed out the freedom of speech so moved along.



Glad you recognise this although your mention of Gestapo sums it up. Happy for healthy debate but immature conspiracy theories and nonsense do nothing to help the discussion or add to the information available.


----------



## nickyboy (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Look East ran an item last night claiming that rich Londoners are moving to their second homes against government advice, probably bringing the virus with them, and then going out to cafes and restaurants because they've left almost no food in and the panic buyers mean they can't buy it after arrival, so coastal resort infection rates may quickly catch up with London. I'm told there's been a similar article in The Times today.


This mirrors Spain exactly. Rich Madrilaneos legged it to their homes in Costa Blanca, Majorca, Ibiza, causing these to be locked down pronto


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

M & S setting aside 1st hour of trading
Tuesday and Friday , NHS and emergency workers
Monday and Thursday, Elderly


----------



## nickyboy (19 Mar 2020)

Milzy said:


> I'm not allowed to discuss conspiracy theories anymore as it's upsetting people the C.C Gestapo says. Snuffed out the freedom of speech so moved along.


I'm happy to discuss it with you @Milzy 

Now you've offered a theory of the virus' source. There is plenty of scientific research available online that suggests the virus originated in animal to human transfer in China. So if you can give me something to support your theory then the discussion can start.


----------



## mjr (19 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> That's not quite true now is it? I remember you doing the same yonks ago in the old brexit thread, you'd copy and paste some old bollocks from Facebook [...]
> 
> Edit : what's more my Jonathan Frakes vid got deleted in the fallout and I've been waiting to use that for ages!!!


Was it an animation of


----------



## Milzy (19 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm happy to discuss it with you @Milzy
> 
> Now you've offered a theory of the virus' source. There is plenty of scientific research available online that suggests the virus originated in animal to human transfer in China. So if you can give me something to support your theory then the discussion can start.


I'll PM any sources as it's forbidden here.
Thank you.


----------



## Rezillo (19 Mar 2020)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

"The genomic features described here may explain in part the infectiousness and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here. However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible".


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Mar 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> I had nowhere else to put this but I felt I had to vent, apologies....
> 
> A lady friend of mine over in Essex became ill 2 days ago, with all the Corona virus symptoms, high temperature, sore joints, persistent cough.
> On seeing her starting to develop symptoms, her husband immediately sodded off into London, stating that his company had suddenly laid on hotel rooms for them as they were in such an important role and needed to be close to the office. (He's an insolvency lawyer so erm, no, clearly not even close to being a key worker). She's now alone and ill with no-one to care for her. He said he'll see her in a couple of weeks.
> ...



I'm not excusing his behaviour, but he is clearly unable to deal with a serious family problem, so he has run from it.

It's something I've seen before when a family is dealing with a tragedy, such as the death of a child.

The mother has the strength to keep the household ticking over for the other children, and the strength to deal with the string of visitors offering condolences.

Which in this example included me.

"Where's the lad's father?" I asked.

"Upstairs," she replied. "He's taken to his bed."


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Mar 2020)

Is Milzy Irish?


View: https://twitter.com/paddyraffcomedy/status/1240630381776375808


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Mar 2020)

View: https://youtu.be/5wy65fNFlVM


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Was it an animation of
> View attachment 509240


Nah, much better than that!


----------



## MarkF (19 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Look North (Leeds) tonight featured a crying nurse who having come off a 48 hour shift could not find any fruit or veg and who made the point that the mindless hoarders would need people like her in their greatest need.



Needs to get a grip. I finished my a&e shift at 10:30 last night and headed to the 24 hour Asda with MrsF's shopping list. Only to be told it had closed at 10. Bummer, didn't burst into tears.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> I'm comfortable reading and understanding blocks of text with no hints as to the key phrases and messages, as are you. Sadly, there are many people who are not. While there are too many of the textual and stylistc features you note for my taste, I can also see past them. Would you like different sets of text for we privileged litterati and a dumbed down text for everyone else?



The message as the poster observed was written in Sun style, or rather an attempt to do so.

It is daft for anyone to use italics and the like only for the reader to have to unpick those devices to see the real message, whatever the reader's intellect.

There is a view that one of those devices can be used, not that I would.

Mixing them in the same piece is a definite no-no.

The piece also proves that while the Sun style is simple and direct, it is far from simple to imitate it well.

The shorter the words and sentences, the greater the expertise required to compose them.

As I've said before, any idiot can describe what happened in a road accident in 750 words.

Doing it in 160 - and crucially leaving nothing out - is a high art.


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Needs to get a grip. I finished my a&e shift at 10:30 last night and headed to the 24 hour Asda with MrsF's shopping list. Only to be told it had closed at 10. Bummer, didn't burst into tears.


Yeah she should just MTFU shouldn't she, be a tough guy like you.


View: https://twitter.com/BBCLookNorth/status/1240687667265843202?s=20


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Needs to get a grip. I finished my a&e shift at 10:30 last night and headed to the 24 hour Asda with MrsF's shopping list. Only to be told it had closed at 10. Bummer, didn't burst into tears.



Boy your wasted in your job. You 1st have a believe that people like her are paid well now you sound like someone able to cope with anything. 
So what you waiting for they are caring out for more nursers. If your lucky your trust may even pay you to train


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://youtu.be/5wy65fNFlVM



This is just sick they need repotting to the CMA. They made it clear early on in this current situation.
They don't like it and will hit you with a big stick in the pocket.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Mar 2020)

I've just returned from Asda to get some new reading glasses after my old ones broke last night.

The store was very quiet, and as you might imagine, panic buying had not hit the reading glasses stand, so I picked up a couple of pairs.

I would have needed milk tomorrow, so it made sense to get some there.

No chance, none at all.

There was stuff on the shelves elsewhere, but almost certainly some other items would have been out of stock.

The thought of no cuppa tomorrow would send me into a panic, but happily a Spar shop on the way home had plenty.

I did have to buy a larger carton than usual, which is a slight pity because I only use a drop in tea so it might go off before I use it all.


----------



## Mo1959 (19 Mar 2020)

Did you see that nurse being interviewed just now. Just finished a shift and close to tears as she couldn’t buy any fresh food due to these selfish idiots clearing the shelves.


----------



## Mugshot (19 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Did you see that nurse being interviewed just now. Just finished a shift and close to tears as she couldn’t buy any fresh food due to these selfish idiots clearing the shelves.


About three posts up from yours.


----------



## Beebo (19 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Still vegan stuff left for some reason -
> 
> View attachment 509118


That tells you everything you need to know about the dicks who are hoarding and panic buying. 
I’m certain that half the stuff will just get chucked away when it goes off because they can’t eat everything they’ve bought.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> I’m certain that half the stuff will just get chucked away when it goes off because they can’t eat everything they’ve bought.



You would think so, and you would also think panic buying would ease after an initial flurry when all the panic buyers' store cupboards are full.

I believe that doesn't always happen, maybe the reason is some of the stuff's been chucked which sends the buyer into a panic again when he sees his empty larder.


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I've just returned from Asda to get some new reading glasses after my old ones broke last night.
> 
> The store was very quiet, and as you might imagine, panic buying had not hit the reading glasses stand, so I picked up a couple of pairs.
> 
> ...


Freeze what you have left then you've always got some just incase.


----------



## vickster (19 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Freeze what you have left then you've always got some just incase.


Except the freezers sold out in the initial panic buying a week or so ago!


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

Wembley Stadium as of tonight and every night till this is over to say thank are displaying this


----------



## tom73 (19 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Except the freezers sold out in the initial panic buying a week or so ago!


Well they need some place for the all the bog roll. Most people forgot how really to use a freezer years ago.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Freeze what you have left then you've always got some just incase.



I didn't know you could freeze milk, but I don't have a freezer.

Actually I do have one, but why it's not in operation is a story that even I wouldn't bore you with.

My fridge is just that, it doesn't even have an ice cube department.


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Mar 2020)

Just blown a huge chunk of my washing machine liquid and dettol anti bac cleaner is now empty, kids picked a great time for a vomiting bug.

no chance to replenish these unless the rumours about some store opening for key workers earlier is true.


----------



## PK99 (19 Mar 2020)

Interesting developments across the Pond with Trump authorising use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 following chinese paper > https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0
*Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine, is effective in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro*


Plus a french paper> https://tinyurl.com/sdz8jw8

_A new study whose results were published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents has found early evidence that the combination of hydroxychloroquine, a popular anti-malaria drug known under the trade name Plaqenuil, and antibiotic azithromycin (aka Achromatic or Azithrocin) could be especially effective in treating the COVID-19 coronavirus and reducing the duration of the virus in patients._


I've been noting the reports of these drug possibilities over the past day or so, as I happen to be on long term treatment with both drugs


Azithromycin 250mg x 3 days per week as chest infection prophylactic
Hydroxychloroquine 2x200mg daily to dampen down pleural inflammation linked to chest infections and Sjogren's Syndrome
Do any of our Pharmaceutical or Medical brethren have any views?

Edit: fortunately i just got a 3 month scrip last week, s have a 4 month stock


----------



## Stephenite (20 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Look East ran an item last night claiming that rich Londoners are moving to their second homes against government advice, probably bringing the virus with them, and then going out to cafes and restaurants because they've left almost no food in and the panic buyers mean they can't buy it after arrival, so coastal resort infection rates may quickly catch up with London. I'm told there's been a similar article in The Times today.
> [/QUOTE
> 
> 
> ...



And in Norway.

Last Thursday when the announcement was made that the schools were closing for two weeks they all left their jobs and went to the supermarket at the same time to buy two weeks of supplies. So there was a bit of a panic on and people were buying loads. The shops were being emptied by people spending hundreds of pounds on crap they would not have normally bought. These are the same people that brought the virus to Norway from their skiing holiday in the Alps. The municipalities in which their holiday homes are in say they cannot cope with the extra load on the local healthcare system and asked these people to go home. Some have, but many haven't. The government has now asked for, and been granted, extra powers.

It's the same people time and time again.


----------



## PK99 (20 Mar 2020)

I genuinely do not understand the panic buying. 

Last weekend, I checked and refilled the various lentils jars, topped up the tins of toms, bought some frozen ginger/garlic ice cubes and on Monday went to the local Italian deli and topped up pasta stocks to normal levels.

Went into unexpected lock down on yesterday and we are fine for the 14 days, could probably last a couple of months with access to some more onions.


----------



## cookiemonster (20 Mar 2020)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11189...Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1584442462


----------



## Pale Rider (20 Mar 2020)

Boris did a reasonable job of the Thursday daily press conference, given that he didn't have anything new to launch, all that was left was a rallying cry.

The more interesting question is what has he got in store for us later on today?

Looks inevitable the chancellor will take centre stage with a plan to pay a proportion of workers' wages while they are in isolation.

Boris might hit back with some measures aimed at London.

Rumours of a partial lock down.

My retired bank manager brother doesn't do social media, but even he heard about that one from one of his retired banker mates.

There's no doubt there have been army movements around the country.

The Beeb reported the troops were moving in Catterick, North Yorkshire, to prepare to join a virus task force, whatever one of those is.

We may have heard all we are going to hear about that for the time being, or the full gen could be being held back for the conference.


----------



## ozboz (20 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://youtu.be/5wy65fNFlVM




what a lousy pair of dirty *****, there could be a pensioner who is not very mobile and has to shop there and they have no qualms at all about ripping them off , I hope some form of action is taken to screw them over


----------



## greenmark (20 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> 40% of hospitalisations in the USA are 20-54 years old. Interesting compared to the data from other countries so far. This has come from the US centre for disease Control (CDC).



46% of all residents in the USA are ages 20-54 years old, according to statista.


----------



## Julia9054 (20 Mar 2020)

So the list of key workers who's children are eligible to be in school has been published. It includes . . . just about everyone! 
If schools are not as empty as we thought, are teachers now going to be expected to be in school teaching classes that are 2/3 full whilst simultaneously setting online lessons for those who are not there?
We had an assembly for yr 11 yesterday at 3pm to tell them GCSEs were officially cancelled and that this was therefore their last day in school. If we didn't have coronavirus before, we do now! Never seen so much tears, snot and hugging in one room!


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I didn't know you could freeze milk, but I don't have a freezer.
> 
> Actually I do have one, but why it's not in operation is a story that even I wouldn't bore you with.
> 
> My fridge is just that, it doesn't even have an ice cube department.


oh well that won't work then


----------



## Julia9054 (20 Mar 2020)

One boy said "does that mean I don't have to do any work anymore and can just go out all the time?"
Yes and NO! 
"We'll be ok but we might pass it to our parents who are elderly "
"I doubt your parents are elderly " says I.
"Well my mum is. She's 50!"
"That's younger than me"
"Don't be silly Miss - you are not over 50"
They are my new favourite class!


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> So the list of key workers who's children are eligible to be in school has been published. It includes . . . just about everyone!
> If schools are not as empty as we thought, are teachers now going to be expected to be in school teaching classes that are 2/3 full whilst simultaneously setting online lessons for those who are not there?
> We had an assembly for yr 11 yesterday at 3pm to tell them GCSEs were officially cancelled and that this was therefore their last day in school. If we didn't have coronavirus before, we do now! Never seen so much tears, snot and hugging in one room!



I understand the problem the list is a long one true but this is part of how big this situation is. But it's not just about everyone and inc the wording 
If children can stay safely at home, they should, to limit the chance of the virus spreading.
That is why the government has asked parents to keep their children at home, wherever possible, and asked schools to remain open only for those children who absolutely need to attend.

So even if they are on the list they may not be a nee to attend unless it's the only option. 

This is from a teaching friend via twitter 
Here’s my outlook on all this as a teacher: We’re still getting paid. So many other people can’t even say that. If me being in school, even over Easter hols, means that an NHS worker etc... can go and do their thing. Then so be it. This is so much bigger than us.

I'm now not working and no pay it may change but given the head or anyone from my school has not even told me anything.
Since this situation started back in January I'm not holding out.


----------



## Julia9054 (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> That is why the government has asked parents to keep their children at home, wherever possible, and asked schools to remain open only for those children who absolutely need to attend.


As there are still the full range of views from "I'm not changing my behaviour " to "we all need to live in the basement for the rest of our lives" I'm not convinced that leaving it up to individuals to define "need" is the correct course of action.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Mar 2020)

Well, here's one group of hotels I'll never be using again - Britannia Hotels 

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/f...iately/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter



> A hotel worker said he will have to sleep in a tent after he was sacked this afternoon, alongside a number of other employees who were staying in staff accommodation. Spanish national Alvaro Garcia said he had been working at the Coylumbridge Aviemore Hotel for the past two years, but was this afternoon handed a letter telling him his “services are no longer required”, and to “vacate the hotel accommodations immediately”.
> Management blamed the controversial move on the coronavirus outbreak, but it has sparked outrage from locals – with one councillor saying it made him “ashamed to be Scottish”.









Some companies are behaving appallingly during this crisis. I saw an industrial supply company in London yesterday (CMT Group) charging £419 for a 5l bottle of hand sanitiser. The sales rep told the company buyer "Supply and demand mate". A number of local companies immediately cancelled their accounts. 








I've stayed at Britannia Hotels in Newcastle and Aberdeen on a number of occasions but never again. I've emailed my company this morning and had them removed from the "approved" list.

Hopefully people take note of these appalling practices and act accordingly when this is all over.


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Shocking on both counts.
I have to say I once stayed in Britannia Hotel and it was a total dump cost a mint too.
Company put me up so nothing to pay good job really. Even then I said i'd not use them again now i'm even more set on the idea.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Mar 2020)

The BBC picked up on the story too

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-51972372



> *Hotel staff sacked and made homeless amid virus outbreak*


----------



## Smudge (20 Mar 2020)

Fed up with making numerous trips around shops and not being able to get what i want. So thereby having even more contact with other people when shopping that i would normally. So much for trying to isolate.
So i got to Morrisons at 6.30 this morning, for 7am opening and there were already people queueing ! Managed to finally get some elusive toilet rolls, pasta and some tinned goods.
But at least this is just an irritation and hassle to me so far, i dont have many of the problems some people are having. Financial, social, many stuck abroad and people with much worse health problems than myself.


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

Been in bed since early evening with high fever and sweats, lots of sweats. Slightly achey, no sore throat or cough. Paracetamol worked well. Not too bad this morning.


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

pjd57 said:


> Who thought putting Boris on live TV every day would reassure the public


I thought until yesterday he had upped his game, but yesterday his bullshit dam broke to the visible discomfort of his experts....


----------



## randynewmanscat (20 Mar 2020)

Are people still going to pubs?


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The BBC picked up on the story too
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-51972372


They are trending on twitter. Just watch Andrew Neil tweet on this the retweet count is flying.


----------



## vickster (20 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Are people still going to pubs?


Clearly yes, https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/what-is-closing-near-you-specially-pubs.258554/

The ones in my local town each had a handful in last night (I was having a walk/shop)


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

I see netflix are getting on board with helping people they are still going to charge full price but steam at lower quality. To help broadband providers who have already said it not a problem. 
How nice of them to pull together at a time of need.


----------



## randynewmanscat (20 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Well, here's one group of hotels I'll never be using again - Britannia Hotels
> 
> https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/f...iately/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
> 
> ...


That hotel is the nearest one to the uplift car park at Cairngorm mountain, its a big complex and with creche facilities to leave the kids while you stumble about on the slush and exposed rocks before returning for a gallon of wine and a steak sizzler.
I went there one night with friends for a beer in the bar and it was a corporate sort of place as you might expect.
It has been another disastrous snow sports season in the Highlands, second one in a row, I suspect that the owners have gladly jumped on this one in an attempt to stop hemorrhaging money.
I did wonder how many firms who fancy pulling the plug on operations without too much outcry would use this crisis as a means to an end.
If any of the people at that hotel in Coylumbridge are local they will be joining a growing number of unemployed, there are bugger all jobs in the Spey valley at the moment. I think many of the serving and cleaning staff are EU nationals, they will head south or home. Short of a miracle it will be a disaster year for north east Scotland this summer, worse than in many parts of the UK.


----------



## Eziemnaik (20 Mar 2020)

For those who think in 3 months time everything is going to be alright...
China is in a depression


----------



## ozboz (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I thought until yesterday he had upped his game, but yesterday his bullshit dam broke to the visible discomfort of his experts....


The Gov are talking bollox, absolute bollox, Hancock just on Sky News , their whole strategic plan seems to depend on people avoiding crowds etc , I went to Sainsbury’s at 6 45 this morn there was at least 4-500 people lined up in queues all breathing over each other , handling trolleys with no gloves on etc etc , they are not behaving badly , just doing what people do and will continue until they are told they cannot, I walked away when I saw what was going on , 
LNER have just cancelled 45 trains a day , it seems to me that the gov are waiting for others to shut down operations like the tubes , airlines football ,


----------



## Smudge (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I see netflix are getting on board with helping people they are still going to charge full price but steam at lower quality. To help broadband providers who have already said it not a problem.
> How nice of them to pull together at a time of need.



I have the Netflix SD package at £5.99 pm. For those paying £8.99 for HD streaming, would have thought they would have to drop the price for those customers ?


----------



## Eziemnaik (20 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> The Gov are talking bollox, absolute bollox, Hancock just on Sky News , their whole strategic plan seems to depend on people avoiding crowds etc , I went to Sainsbury’s at 6 45 this morn there was at least 4-500 people lined up in queues all breathing over each other , handling trolleys with no gloves on etc etc , they are not behaving badly , just doing what people do and will continue until they are told they cannot, I walked away when I saw what was going on ,
> LNER have just cancelled 45 trains a day , it seems to me that the gov are waiting for others to shut down operations like the tubes , airlines football ,







I dont think it is really their strategy as that would lead in every case to a massive overload of ICU beds, basically they had already resigned to total lockdown and still waiting for implementation


----------



## Skibird (20 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Needs to get a grip. I finished my a&e shift at 10:30 last night and headed to the 24 hour Asda with MrsF's shopping list. Only to be told it had closed at 10. Bummer, didn't burst into tears.


You sound like such a lovely person...……………………………………………………………..NOT!!


----------



## perplexed (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Been in bed since early evening with high fever and sweats, lots of sweats. Slightly achey, no sore throat or cough. Paracetamol worked well. Not too bad this morning.



Get well soon, otherwise everyone will be fighting over your bikes.


----------



## perplexed (20 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Are people still going to pubs?



The nearest pub to me (an independent) has a large outdoor area which has lighting which can be seen from Ursa Minor. This was on last night when I passed, so I guess they're still open. I don't know how busy they actually are, but there were fewer cars about.

A silver lining to the general situation is that Tim Martin is pi$$ed off.


----------



## snorri (20 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The BBC picked up on the story too


My apologies if the letter has already been posted.


----------



## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)

Italy - "The doctors are warning that they have seen nothing like it before, and are warning other countries, especially the UK, that they will see it as well."


View: https://twitter.com/shady_inf0/status/1240811515193802752?s=20


UK - "We can send it packing in 12 weeks"


View: https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1240690443643387905?s=20


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> A silver lining to the general situation is that Tim Martin is pi$$ed off.


There is a god....


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> My apologies if the letter has already been posted.
> View attachment 509290


Dreadful...


----------



## steve292 (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Been in bed since early evening with high fever and sweats, lots of sweats. Slightly achey, no sore throat or cough. Paracetamol worked well. Not too bad this morning.


Take care mate


----------



## Ming the Merciless (20 Mar 2020)




----------



## Johnno260 (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Been in bed since early evening with high fever and sweats, lots of sweats. Slightly achey, no sore throat or cough. Paracetamol worked well. Not too bad this morning.



Take care mate.


----------



## mjr (20 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Just blown a huge chunk of my washing machine liquid and dettol anti bac cleaner is now empty, kids picked a great time for a vomiting bug.
> 
> no chance to replenish these unless the rumours about some store opening for key workers earlier is true.


Local branch of "Savers" discount pharmacy still has loads. Most people seemed to walk in, see no paracetamol (which is still usual price but two packs per customer per day max and I think the tills are checking card numbers) and walk out, not reaching the household goods on the back wall. I think other stores like QD still had them too but they're not national and didn't have as much. Hope that helps m


----------



## benb (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Been in bed since early evening with high fever and sweats, lots of sweats. Slightly achey, no sore throat or cough. Paracetamol worked well. Not too bad this morning.



GWS, and make sure you stringently limit contact to other people for 14 days. Easier said than done, I know.


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## biggs682 (20 Mar 2020)

Can I check that using a carbon frame will be ok at the moment ? 

Or should I stick to steel ?


----------



## Pale Rider (20 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> which is still usual price but two packs per customer per day max



Those restrictions are always in place on the retail sale of paracetamol.

I fell foul of them once when I bought my two pack allowance and some cough mixture.

The till at Tesco flagged the transaction because the cough mixture also contained paracetamol.

Your GP can prescribe as much as he likes.

Mine usually gives me 100, which means the pharmacist has to chop one blister pack because they come in 12s.


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## vickster (20 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Those restrictions are always in place on the retail sale of paracetamol.
> 
> I fell foul of them once when I bought my two pack allowance and some cough mixture.
> 
> ...


Ask your GP to prescribe 108?


----------



## randynewmanscat (20 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> The nearest pub to me (an independent) has a large outdoor area which has lighting which can be seen from Ursa Minor. This was on last night when I passed, so I guess they're still open. I don't know how busy they actually are, but there were fewer cars about.
> 
> A silver lining to the general situation is that Tim Martin is pi$$ed off.


I'm sure he will source some English coronavirus for his customers instead of that foreign muck.


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

biggs682 said:


> Can I check that using a carbon frame will be ok at the moment ?
> 
> Or should I stick to steel ?


You know what makes sense....


----------



## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)

Tim Martin, a gentleman and a scholar:

_In one email, it states sales over the past six weeks have been at plus 3%, which is “almost certainly the best performance of any large pub or restaurant company”.
It goes on to say: “Having been trading for 40 years, we have seen several major recessions, health scares (SARS, CJD etc.) and other difficulties."_

(Bristol live link)


----------



## perplexed (20 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I'm sure he will source some English coronavirus for his customers instead of that foreign muck.



Apparently he was babbling some bollox along the lines of there being little transmission in pubs anyway (which of course he has bugger-all evidence for, but that doesn't seem to bother him). 

However, one wag has pointed out that he may have a point - after all, no virus can survive on a Wetherspoon's carpet...


----------



## perplexed (20 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Tim Martin, a gentleman and a scholar:
> 
> _In one email, it states sales over the past six weeks have been at plus 3%, which is “almost certainly the best performance of any large pub or restaurant company”.
> It goes on to say: “Having been trading for 40 years, we have seen several major recessions, health scares (SARS, CJD etc.) and other difficulties."_
> ...



I wonder if Tim Martin and Stanley Johnson would volunteer to sit (right) next to a confirmed, infectious Corona virus victim in an over-heated pub. 

I could probably have a wild stab at the answer...


----------



## newfhouse (20 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> However, one wag has pointed out that he may have a point - after all, no virus can survive on a Wetherspoon's carpet...


I reckon *everything* survives on a ‘spoons carpet. Before long they’ll be the most sentient lifeform in there.

Maybe it’s already happened...


----------



## Beebo (20 Mar 2020)

i just saw an old lady getting told off for buying 3 packets of lockets. 
She had to put one back. I’m glad the supermarkets are now enforcing the panic buying.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Mar 2020)

Following on from Barnier, the UK's chief Brexit negotiator, David Frost, is now self-isolating. Which is pretty much what he was appointed to do for the nation.


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## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> i just saw an old lady getting told off for buying 3 packets of lockets.
> She had to put one back. I’m glad the supermarkets are now enforcing the panic buying.


The son of a friend of my wife works in Tesco, he was saying that they are enforcing the max purchases, but they are seeing the same people doing the same shop, day after day after day.


----------



## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

The NSW police have drawn up a list of things to panic buy:


View: https://twitter.com/nswpolice/status/1240838046863388672?s=21


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## Pale Rider (20 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> I wonder if Tim Martin and Stanley Johnson would volunteer to sit (right) next to a confirmed, infectious Corona virus victim in an over-heated pub.
> 
> I could probably have a wild stab at the answer...



It's more likely the Corona punter wouldn't want to sit next to Tim, and particularly Stanley.



newfhouse said:


> I reckon *everything* survives on a ‘spoons carpet. Before long they’ll be the most sentient lifeform in there.



I remember my shoes literally sticking to the carpet in a couple of Sunderland city centre's disco bars.

Good news for the management, though.

I was friendly at the time with the area manager of Vaux Brewery.

"I've just put a six grand new carpet in there," he said, referring to a grotty Sunderland estate pub.
"Unfortunately for me, they will never wear it out."


----------



## Blue Hills (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> There is a god....


God any **ing god is nowhere in any of this.


----------



## snorri (20 Mar 2020)

My household food stocks are running down, but I can last until next week without replenishing. Is it sound thinking to believe that the panic buyers will have exhausted all of their home storage space by next week and that I should be able to shop as normal on Monday or Tuesday?


----------



## Blue Hills (20 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> My household food stocks are running down, but I can last until next week without replenishing. Is it sound thinking to believe that the panic buyers will have exhausted all of their home storage space by next week and that I should be able to shop as normal on Monday or Tuesday?


This is my approach. Pretty hopeful. Will post more on my morning bike ride/shopping scout later.


----------



## Poacher (20 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> My household food stocks are running down, but I can last until next week without replenishing. Is it sound thinking to believe that the panic buyers will have exhausted all of their home storage space by next week and that I should be able to shop as normal on Monday or Tuesday?


Not necessarily; many will be selling pasta, bogrolls etc. at massively inflated prices at car boots over the weekend and will need to replenish their stock next week.


----------



## Bazzer (20 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> i just saw an old lady getting told off for buying 3 packets of lockets.
> She had to put one back. I’m glad the supermarkets are now enforcing the panic buying.


A next door neighbour was at Aldi this morning. 7am the queue was almost 100 metres! When he finally got in the store among other items, he picked up a bunch of 7 bananas. The checkout person ripped three off and said he only allowed 4. 👍


----------



## Blue Hills (20 Mar 2020)

Poacher said:


> Not necessarily; many will be selling pasta, bogrolls etc. at massively inflated prices at car boots over the weekend and will need to replenish their stock next week.


Going forward they are going to be burning a lot of fuel and spending a lot of time doing that because of buying limits being put in place. I remain hopeful. Not going to starve.


----------



## vickster (20 Mar 2020)

Poacher said:


> Not necessarily; many will be selling pasta, bogrolls etc. at massively inflated prices at car boots over the weekend and will need to replenish their stock next week.


Hopefully those will have been banned as part of social distancing


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (20 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It's not just the ''worst'' cases that we should be heeding. Why does Germany have 11,973 identified cases and 28 dead when the UK has only 2,626 but 104 dead? That's comparing a mortality* rate of under 0.3% with almost 4%. They're clearly doing something far better than we are. And we should be learning from there.
> 
> *It's only a mortality rate for identified cases. Identify more, i.e test, test, test and the mortality rate will fall because more will be identified.



The answer is they are performing 160,000 tests a week. we have been performing less than a quarter. 

Then there is the difference in hospital facilities. "According to an article in Die Zeit from 13th March, the U.K. has 6.6 beds in ICUs per 100,000 of the population, which is fewer than in France, Italy and Spain. Germany has 29.2 beds per 100,000, the U.S. 34.7."

The reason why the WHO told the world to "Test, test, test" is explained in a comment to the article well:

"Testing is the ONLY credible reason and its simple to understand why, so suggesting that experts are "baffled" is ridiculous.

When you test widely and you make testing available to everyone who has symptoms then follow up testing on anyone whom they have contact with you achieve something very important. You catch asymptomatic carriers.

Most of spreading in such infections is done by* asymptomatic carriers*. People who get the disease but its so mild they don't realize they have it. Remember the English guy who caught teh disease in singapore infected everyone in a ski resort and then came back? People like him are the real danger.

Germany is catching a lot of them by making testing widespread. In addition we might discover that a lot of the cases they have identified are actually false positives, because they have probably set their sensitive as low as possible. It makes sense to not worry about false positives. No harm done from isolating someone who doesn't have the disease for 14 days.

Any "expert" who says testing is of limiting use, needs to get a clue. Every asymptomatic carrier you identify and remove results in a disproportionate drop in the reproductive number. So widespread testing is cheap, minimally disruptive and makes a very large contribution in reducing the reproductive number. Its easy to illustrate why. Suppose you have a virus with R0 = 2.5 and then with testing alone you can drop it to 2.0. What is the effect on the growth of the infection? Lets assume we start with 1 case and look at what happens for 10 infection cycles (~20 weeks).

R0 = 2.5 -->
Cycle Infected
0 1
1 2.5
2 6.25
3 15.625
4 39.0625
5 97.65625
6 244.1406
7 610.3516
8 1525.879
9 3814.697
10 9536.743

R0 = 2.0 -->
Cycle Infected
0 1 
1 2
2 4
3 8
4 16
5 32
6 64
7 128
8 256
9 512
10 1024

The difference is obviously dramatic. This is what we are seeing in germany. They are detecting a lot of cases, but they are probably detect most of what is there, while in other countries like France, Spain and the UK the cases detected are the tip of the iceberg. "



Actually according to the WHO, an infection cycle for COVID-19 is approximately 4 days. Once someone has been tested positive asymptomatic or otherwise, obviously their behaviour can and will change, leading to less risk to others. Here, nobody knows, those with symptoms were just asked to go home and transmit it to everybody else in the family, and their kids still go to school, and transmit it to other families.

There is no way to sugarcoat this - we are where we are, and the real sh*te is yet to hit the fan, because of blatant failures by the Government and their "experts" - they have been asleep at the helm, and many will die as the direct result.


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

They maybe a buying limit but yesterday I spotted a couple shopping who each had a fully stocked up trolley. 
They won't be the only ones who start going it.


----------



## biggs682 (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> You know what makes sense....


I do but I am itching to get some miles in on my latest Look


----------



## Unkraut (20 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> UK - "We can send it packing in 12 weeks"


I can't help but wonder if the UK has been a bit complacent over the last few weeks. I hope the thing can be 'sent packing', but the route there is going to be unpleasant to say the least. It really would be folly not to consider the experience of countries like Italy who sadly are in a more advanced stage of the epidemic.

Just watched live that Bavaria is going into virtually complete lockdown now for the next two weeks. Similar to but not quite as extensive as France. Not something the government ever wanted to do. Those who still don't see the need to be sensible and do as requested can from now on reckon with very heavy fines. You can still go walking as individuals or as a family, but mustn't congregate together. I assume cycling remains allowed if done on an individual basis. 

I suspect the same or similar policy is already being considered for my (@Andy in Germany our) neck of the woods.


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

biggs682 said:


> I do but I am itching to get some miles in on my latest Look
> 
> View attachment 509315


Tasty, very tasty! I see your problem :-)


----------



## Smudge (20 Mar 2020)

Considering there has always been a lot of food waste from people, I wonder how much more short life food will be wasted by going over its use by date and then thrown out now, by those panic buying.


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> Considering there has always been a lot of food waste from people, I wonder how much more short life food will be wasted by going over its use by date and then thrown out now, by those panic buying.


Sadly a lot and then they go out and do it all over again.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> The answer is they are performing 160,000 tests a week. we have been performing less than a quarter.
> 
> Then there is the difference in hospital facilities. "According to an article in Die Zeit from 13th March, the U.K. has 6.6 beds in ICUs per 100,000 of the population, which is fewer than in France, Italy and Spain. Germany has 29.2 beds per 100,000, the U.S. 34.7."
> 
> ...


BBC News briefly touched on this yesterday. A lot of what you say above applies but, note of caution, Germany may be at an early stage in the virus' progression, certainly compared to Italy and Spain.


----------



## perplexed (20 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> Considering there has always been a lot of food waste from people, I wonder how much more short life food will be wasted by going over its use by date and then thrown out now, by those panic buying.



Friend of mine phoned a little while ago and we had that discussion. Mainly flour. It has a relatively short shelf life and I wonder who is buying it, particularly as bread doesn't seem to be an issue supply-wise at the moment and I don't see the nation turning into bakers overnight. 

I think a lot of it will end up in land fill.


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

First British arrest for failing to self-isolate

A man has been arrested for allegedly failing to self-isolate after arriving on the Isle of Man - thought to be the first person held in the British Isles for breaching quarantine rules.
The island passed emergency legislation requiring new arrivals to quarantine themselves for 14 days regardless of symptoms on Tuesday.
(Source bbc)
Update 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-51974140


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## numbnuts (20 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> Friend of mine phoned a little while ago and we had that discussion. Mainly flour. It has a relatively short shelf life and I wonder who is buying it, particularly as bread doesn't seem to be an issue supply-wise at the moment and I don't see the nation turning into bakers overnight.
> 
> I think a lot of it will end up in land fill.


From Wessex Mills shelf life is one year (bread flour that is) as I bought some the other day as there was none in my supermarkets, but to make it worth my while I had to buy 10KG, sounds a lot but I make a large loaf every 5 days


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## Pale Rider (20 Mar 2020)

Is a shop manager reserving stock for regular customers acceptable?

The following incident in a convenience store in South Shields, Tyne and Wear, appears to be true.

There is no visible stock of milk or bread.

A customer approaches the till, and a loaf and a pint of milk is produced for him from the storeroom.

The next customer asks for milk and bread, only to be told he could have neither because the stock he saw in the storeroom is being reserved for regular customers.

What to make of it?

Looking after regulars is to be applauded, but I'm not sure it should be done in the way it was in this instance.

A strictly enforced item number limit per customer looks to me to be a better solution.


----------



## perplexed (20 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> From Wessex Mills shelf life is one year (bread flour that is) as I bought some the other day as there was none in my supermarkets, but to make it worth my while I had to buy 10KG, sounds a lot but I make a large loaf every 5 days



I made a fennel and raisin loaf yesterday which I was quite pleased with. Did a rosemary one last week which was pretty nice if I do say so myself!


----------



## Andy in Germany (20 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I can't help but wonder if the UK has been a bit complacent over the last few weeks. I hope the thing can be 'sent packing', but the route there is going to be unpleasant to say the least. It really would be folly not to consider the experience of countries like Italy who sadly are in a more advanced stage of the epidemic.
> 
> Just watched live that Bavaria is going into virtually complete lockdown now for the next two weeks. Similar to but not quite as extensive as France. Not something the government ever wanted to do. Those who still don't see the need to be sensible and do as requested can from now on reckon with very heavy fines. You can still go walking as individuals or as a family, but mustn't congregate together. I assume cycling remains allowed if done on an individual basis.
> 
> I suspect the same or similar policy is already being considered for my (@Andy in Germany our) neck of the woods.



I know Freiburg has gone into full lockdown within the city, Thankfully I'll be living and working a few kilometres away, assuming the job I was offered still exists by next week: apparently the state is considering closing down the protected workshops. I'm glad I'm not making that decision: the clients in protected workshop are likely to be carriers if they don't get sick in the process, but on the other hand it's probably better if they're in the workshop during the day and not in lockdown at a home, assuming there's something for them do do at the workshop of course.

I'll hear about the job on the 24th at the earliest...


----------



## ozboz (20 Mar 2020)

Sky News report from Italy , it’s says the virus is more like a very bad pneumonia , the Army there have been employed to enforce lock down, 
Germany is having 30% higher cases of infection and higher death rate and have been told to open their eyes to the reality of the what is happening , 
and yet our Gov is going full on like a sloth to contain the virus , it’s Friday , come Monday my guess , they may just start getting their ars•• into gear


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> From Wessex Mills shelf life is one year (bread flour that is) as I bought some the other day as there was none in my supermarkets, but to make it worth my while I had to buy 10KG, sounds a lot but I make a large loaf every 5 days


Agreed, it will actually keep longer than that if in a well sealed container. If this wasn’t the case, we’d have no flour before the (once a year) harvest!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Mar 2020)

Worth a read - https://www.gov.uk/government/group...mergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response


----------



## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

This sums it up for me.....my wife is one of those coming out of clinical retirement 


View: https://twitter.com/the_chrisshaw/status/1240910558326636544?s=21


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> The answer is they are performing 160,000 tests a week. we have been performing less than a quarter.



Well that's good, as it hints that 25,000 tests a day is possible (which I have seen from other countries is just possible but the more countries are doing it the better). One of the things Boris and then Vallance said in the press conference. But 25,000 a day later for us is of limited use. I still thinking that the antibody test implemented with patient tracing and isolation and big data implementations at this stage is looking like the most likely way of saving tens of thousands of lives and more importantly in the developing world probably millions of lives.

The antibody test to test who has it lives is believed to be less effective in the asymptotic stages, but it's a lot better than nothing.


----------



## Johnno260 (20 Mar 2020)

biggs682 said:


> I do but I am itching to get some miles in on my latest Look
> 
> View attachment 509315



I still haven't had a chance to use the Merida in anger since I had it strip serviced and rebuilt with R7000, that Look is nice!


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Are people still going to pubs?



Some are closed. Some are open. Some are open and apparently very busy. Some are open and busy according to reports. 

This is also happening in London apparently, where unfortunately it's probably very out of control. As London is hit really bad first the rest of the country also needs to behave responsibly so where possible (and in Italy this is becoming almost impossible) patients can be sent to other hospitals. I'm hearing very variable reports/pictures of life in London at the moment.


----------



## Johnno260 (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Some are closed. Some are open. Some are open and apparently very busy. Some are open and busy according to reports.
> 
> This is also happening in London apparently, where unfortunately it's probably very out of control. As London is hit really bad first the rest of the country also needs to behave responsibly so where possible (and in Italy this is becoming almost impossible) patients can be sent to other hospitals. I'm hearing very variable reports/pictures of life in London at the moment.



The scary thing is the pubs I have seen are full of older people.... like I said before virus is scary, stupid people just as scary.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> This sums it up for me.....my wife is one of those coming out of clinical retirement



Please let her know she has my sincere gratitude, and I am sure same from everybody else here too.

Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba, has commissioned a detailed lessons learnt / guide book for medics around the world who are battling the virus. Even I find it an interesting read. If she hasn't seen it already, she might find it of some use, and perhaps spreading it around if she thinks it worthwhile. 

Cheers!


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Worth a read - https://www.gov.uk/government/group...mergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response


If only we had one place with the facts that are tested , from true sources and presented in clear to understand way. Not to panic but to inform. .... That will do nicely sadly most will still believe if it's not on FB it's not fact.


----------



## ozboz (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> This sums it up for me.....my wife is one of those coming out of clinical retirement
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/the_chrisshaw/status/1240910558326636544?s=21



Hats off from me !!
for Mrs BB !!!!

Well done !!!


----------



## glasgowcyclist (20 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> Sky News report from Italy , it’s says the virus is more like a very bad pneumonia , the Army there have been employed to enforce lock down,



News reports I have seen state the army is being used to transport the deceased as the normal provisions for this are swamped. Have you any links showing they are being used for enforcement?


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

@Brompton Bruce 
Well done MrsBB 
Mrs 73 and co are going to all the help they can get.


----------



## biggs682 (20 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I still haven't had a chance to use the Merida in anger since I had it strip serviced and rebuilt with R7000, that Look is nice!



Thank you


----------



## ozboz (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> If only we had one place with the facts that are tested , from true sources and presented in clear to understand way. Not to panic but to inform. .... That will do nicely sadly most will still believe if it's not on FB it's not fact.


I suppose that should be the Gov, 
Propaganda comes to mind , Hancock did not look at all comfortable earlier on Sky , I doubt if the PM will be any different with his afternoon gathering ,,


----------



## nickyboy (20 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> The scary thing is the pubs I have seen are full of older people.... like I said before virus is scary, stupid people just as scary.


I do think that the seriousness of what is coming, medically, has still to hit home to a lot of people. I was in a barber this pm taking son#1 for a haircut
Three things.....
First, zero social distancing, enhanced hygiene etc
Second, I heard one barber saying he'd sneak out of the house if the family had to self quarantine
Thirdly, the owner said that if all barbers were forced to close he would make his appear closed and keep giving haircuts to locals to keep his business going

I fear our laissez-faire approach to compliance will result in much stricter measures very soon


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Spotted in town this morning the local handmade soap shop. Now has a hand written sign in the window they are selling alcohol hand gel @£4 a bottle max 2 each. They have never sold any before all this nothing like cashing in on fear


----------



## ozboz (20 Mar 2020)

biggs682 said:


> I do but I am itching to get some miles in on my latest Look
> 
> View attachment 509315


I know this is off topic , but nice bike ! 
even Hambini rates LOOK Bikes !!!
That’s saying something !!


----------



## Unkraut (20 Mar 2020)

biggs682 said:


> I do but I am itching to get some miles in on my latest Look
> 
> View attachment 509315


You clearly have an eye for taking a good photograph, trees, lake and duck peacefully swimming, but it was a shame some numpty left a bike in the way ...


----------



## Johnno260 (20 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> Hats off from me !!
> for Mrs BB !!!!
> 
> Well done !!!



Hats off indeed to the people going back to work after they have retired, my wife is a nurse so I for one appreciated any and all help.



ozboz said:


> I suppose that should be the Gov,
> Propaganda comes to mind , Hancock did not look at all comfortable earlier on Sky , I doubt if the PM will be any different with his afternoon gathering ,,



I don't envy anyone in government during these times, they pretty much were elected in delivery of Brexit and this landed, whatever choices they make will have repercussions that they will have to live with.



nickyboy said:


> I do think that the seriousness of what is coming, medically, has still to hit home to a lot of people. I was in a barber this pm taking son#1 for a haircut
> Three things.....
> First, zero social distancing, enhanced hygiene etc
> Second, I heard one barber saying he'd sneak out of the house if the family had to self quarantine
> ...



The public have been asked repeatedly to please comply be it panic buying, or using pubs etc yet many choose to ignore the requests so when this gets taken away through legislation and enforcement then the same people will cry the most, yet it's for their own good.

The amount of people I have seen ranting about us being kept in their homes and it's a disgrace etc, the penny really hasn't dropped with them yet. for example look to the Republican supporter in the USA that was interviewed and said this is all fake news created by the democrats, that's an example of the level of stupid we're dealing with.


----------



## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Are people still going to pubs?


I had cause to go through the neighbouring town on Wednesday evening, I drove past around 3 pubs that I could see into. I have no idea how busy they were normally be at 6.30 on a Wednesday, but I do know that none of them were anywhere near empty,


----------



## MontyVeda (20 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I do think that the seriousness of what is coming, medically, has still to hit home to a lot of people. I was in a barber this pm taking son#1 for a haircut
> Three things.....
> First, *zero social distancing*, enhanced hygiene etc
> Second, I heard one barber saying he'd sneak out of the house if the family had to self quarantine
> ...


I'm not trying to be an arse but... what level of social distancing do you expect to see in a barber shop?


----------



## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> I'm not trying to be an arse but... what level of social distancing do you expect to see in a barber shop?


About this much?


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Brompton Bruce
> Well done MrsBB
> Mrs 73 and co are going to all the help they can get.


The Prof is available at very unreasonable rates for the duration of the crisis


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I do think that the seriousness of what is coming, medically, has still to hit home to a lot of people. I was in a barber this pm taking son#1 for a haircut
> Three things.....
> First, zero social distancing, enhanced hygiene etc
> Second, I heard one barber saying he'd sneak out of the house if the family had to self quarantine
> ...



I have to agree round here no one is going anything. Everything is open pubs still full. Even the nail bar was open and rammed  
Still had to dodge a few coughing all over the place. When it comes they will blame the government , when the NHS is full they will blame the government. If I get ill and have to stay at home for 14 , then so will Mrs 73 if she get's it at some point in them 14 days. She's then off the front line for an extra 14 days. When no one comes to help them who do they blame ......


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> About this much?
> 
> View attachment 509331


Does this mean that when we emerge from this, we’ll all look like hippies?


----------



## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> The Prof is available at very unreasonable rates for the duration of the crisis


She has asked me to pass this on to you


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> She has asked me to pass this on to you


I’ll expect my usual 10% 😊


----------



## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> I’ll expect my usual 10% 😊


It’ll get paid to Hill Wimp as per usual and she’ll give you your pocket money


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Well that's good, as it hints that 25,000 tests a day is possible (which I have seen from other countries is just possible but the more countries are doing it the better). One of the things Boris and then Vallance said in the press conference. But 25,000 a day later for us is of limited use. I still thinking that the antibody test implemented with patient tracing and isolation and big data implementations at this stage is looking like the most likely way of saving tens of thousands of lives and more importantly in the developing world probably millions of lives.
> 
> The antibody test to test who has it lives is believed to be less effective in the asymptotic stages, but it's a lot better than nothing.



Didn't someone say 25,000 tests a day in a month's time? If so I believe we will have long been in the midst of a bloodbath - nhs will likely not even have the resource to admit seriously ill patients, let alone test the asymptomatic.

Regarding the Government's reference regarding the antibody test*, does anybody know when might one be shown to work, available for sale, implemented en-masse, and big data AI tracing / isolation going to be realised? Are we sure this wonderful "intention" isn't analogous to building new fire engines when the house is burning, and simply a diversion message currently, e.g. as can be seen when the CMO was asked on Monday at the conference (at 42' and 45'), couldn't and didn't answer why current tests remain seriously short in direct contrast to WHO guidance?

* Nobody currently has this test.


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It’ll get paid to Hill Wimp as per usual and she’ll give you your pocket money


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

Johnson spaffs his big chance....

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-prime-minister-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


----------



## newfhouse (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Does this mean that when we emerge from this, we’ll all look like hippies?


I wonder if something like this could be adapted?

View: https://youtu.be/3lgluqEiQow


----------



## Kempstonian (20 Mar 2020)

Apparently they have been treating people with Chloroquine with very good results. More trials are being conducted but if successful a lot of research time will be saved as the drug is known to be safe. Who knows, but that's what I saw anyway.


----------



## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Does this mean that when we emerge from this, we’ll all look like hippies?


I don't wish to generalise but I think that ship may have sailed for the majority of the CC population.


----------



## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

Kempstonian said:


> Apparently they have been treating people with Chloroquine with very good results. More trials are being conducted but if successful a lot of research time will be saved as the drug is known to be safe. Who knows, but that's what I saw anyway.


The first clinical trial in the U.K. has just started enrolling patients (it’s in Oxford). It’s a bit too early to say what the results from this trial will be. But it’s a start.


----------



## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Does this mean that when we emerge from this, we’ll all look like hippies?


Before and after lockdown:


----------



## rualexander (20 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> Sky News report from Italy , it’s says the virus is more like a very bad pneumonia , the Army there have been employed to enforce lock down,
> Germany is having 30% higher cases of infection and higher death rate and have been told to open their eyes to the reality.........


If that's what the Sky report said then it's pretty poor quality reporting.
The virus causes pneumonia in some cases, which is what leads to the most severe complications, it isn't 'like a very bad pneumonia'. 
According to the figures, Germany is having a lower death rate, possibly due to more extensive testing.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (20 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Before and after lockdown:
> 
> View attachment 509334



That's not the most recent picture...


----------



## Kempstonian (20 Mar 2020)

A study in France had a 100% success rate apparently. Also some Israeli professor say the majority of people have a natural immunity to the virus.


----------



## vickster (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Does this mean that when we emerge from this, we’ll all look like hippies?


I think that's pretty optimistic for quite a few of the CC members who've posted pictures of themselves in the past


----------



## vickster (20 Mar 2020)

Kempstonian said:


> Apparently they have been treating people with Chloroquine with very good results. More trials are being conducted but if successful a lot of research time will be saved as the drug is known to be safe. Who knows, but that's what I saw anyway.


It has been posted up thread a couple of times. It's not without side effects (I take hydroxychloroquine) but most aren't immediate (eg potential issues with eyes after medium-long term use etc)


----------



## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

Kempstonian said:


> A study in France had a 100% success rate apparently. Also some Israeli professor say the majority of people have a natural immunity to the virus.


The question is when the drug is given. In this study hydroxychloroquine is being given when people first present with the symptoms and are tested. I’m not sure about its effectiveness when patients are admitted to hospital with major breathing problems.


----------



## rualexander (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The antibody test to test who has it lives is believed to be less effective in the asymptotic stages, but it's a lot better than nothing.


That doesn't make much sense.
Presumably you mean asymptomatic.
The antibody test is most useful in confirming who has had the disease and can therefore be assumed to be largely immune and unable to contribute to further spread, and they can return to work and a 'normal' life as much as possible.


----------



## vickster (20 Mar 2020)

Kempstonian said:


> A study in France had a 100% success rate apparently. Also some Israeli professor say the majority of people have a natural immunity to the virus.


sources required


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Didn't someone say 25,000 tests a day in a month's time? If so I believe we will have long been in the midst of a bloodbath - nhs will likely not even have the resource to admit seriously ill patients, let alone test the asymptomatic.
> 
> Regarding the Government's reference regarding the antibody test*, does anybody know when might one be shown to work, available for sale, implemented en-masse, and big data AI tracing / isolation going to be realised? Are we sure this wonderful "intention" isn't analogous to building new fire engines when the house is burning, and simply a diversion message currently, e.g. as can be seen when the CMO was asked on Monday at the conference (at 42' and 45'), couldn't and didn't answer why current tests remain seriously short in direct contrast to WHO guidance?
> 
> * Nobody currently has this test.



It was said 25,000 tests in a month's time, last week I believe. This was also around the time it said 10,000 tests from tomorrow and then soon and it being I think 6000 last time I checked and around 3000-4000 the days it was being said.

Boris and Trump have been rather vague on antibody tests. The last couple of days is the only time they've gone into much detail on tests. I'm working on the non-informed assumption that it'll be 3 months to implemented en-masse. That is obviously a disaster for this peak. However I'm not a 1-peaker. I see it useful for later stages of the first peak or minimising re-infections or a potentially disasterous 2nd winter peak.

I don't know why we're short on PCR tests. I believe it's basically lab capacity. Some of the stuff on US PCR tests which I don't have time to read is that there seems to have been many technical problems there. Vallance seemed to hint yesterday to a sceptical journalist that the capacity could be upped (towards 250,000) by automation. The bit I wondered about was that I know the swabs are technical to do. What are the practical limits that may create a bottleneck actually taking swabs and where would it come in? I'm quite sceptical on PCR being the only way forward.


----------



## Salty seadog (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Johnson spaffs his big chance....
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-prime-minister-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other



My favourite line. Priceless....... 
.. 

From Monday, most British parents will be home-schooling their children. Not Johnson, of course – I imagine he doesn’t want to break his own pledge on class sizes.


----------



## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> sources required


Here’s the Nature article on hydroxychloroquine

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0

Edit: it’s a somewhat difficult read but this is its conclusion - results show that HCQ can efficiently inhibit SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro. In combination with its anti-inflammatory function, we predict that the drug has a good potential to combat the disease.


----------



## Kempstonian (20 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> It has been posted up thread a couple of times. It's not without side effects (I take hydroxychloroquine) but most aren't immediate (eg potential issues with eyes after medium-long term use etc)


Sorry - didn't read the whole thread.


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

When I was 12 and well behaved i was allowed to watch this:


View: https://youtu.be/zAyjkaFYnzE


Now 57 I didn’t expect to live through it....


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> I think that's pretty optimistic for quite a few of the CC members who've posted pictures of themselves in the past


Ok, some of us....


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

newfhouse said:


> I wonder if something like this could be adapted?
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/3lgluqEiQow



Love that movie....


----------



## Salty seadog (20 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Before and after lockdown:
> 
> View attachment 509334



The psychology of this will likely take a huge toll. The news is being delivered in bite size chunks to allow digestion but still coming fast.


----------



## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)

Ladies and gentlemen, Dr Tim Martin offers some words of wisdom to the nation following the recent publishing of his peer reviewed and widely acclaimed paper "You don't catch Corona in pubs".


View: https://twitter.com/MrMichaelEU/status/1240945978980605952?s=20


----------



## Smudge (20 Mar 2020)

I haven't been to any pub in the last 2 weeks and its something i'm now really missing, especially after staying in as much as poss the last few days and knowing its only the start of it.
Ordinarily, under circumstances of huge global importance, a local pub is a great place to be. Talking about it, a feeling of everyone being united together. The beer flows and peoples spirits rise and it goes a long way to put people in a better mood.
But under this pandemic threat, a pub is definitely not a good place to be. When people get a few beers inside them, any concern about this virus and how contagious and dangerous it can be will be forgotten.
I can just picture the barfly pissheads in my local now, sitting close together at the bar, having a laugh and just making light of the situation.
So the boozer is a no go for me for the foreseeable.


----------



## vickster (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Here’s the Nature article on hydroxychloroquine
> 
> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0
> 
> Edit: it’s a somewhat difficult read but this is its conclusion - results show that HCQ can efficiently inhibit SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro. In combination with its anti-inflammatory function, we predict that the drug has a good potential to combat the disease.


Thanks
Fortunately the stockpiling hordes can’t strip the shelves as it’s on specialist prescription (GP repeat) only


----------



## Salty seadog (20 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Ladies and gentleman, Dr Tim Martin offers some words of wisdom to the nation following the recent publishing of his peer reviewed and widely acclaimed paper "You don't catch Corona in pubs".
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/MrMichaelEU/status/1240945978980605952?s=20




I could have tweeted that point using only 4 characters. 🧐


----------



## perplexed (20 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Ladies and gentlemen, Dr Tim Martin offers some words of wisdom to the nation following the recent publishing of his peer reviewed and widely acclaimed paper "You don't catch Corona in pubs".
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/MrMichaelEU/status/1240945978980605952?s=20




That man is the very definition of a total banker.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/GabyMcKay/status/1241000429183434752/photo/1


----------



## newfhouse (20 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Ladies and gentlemen, Dr Tim Martin offers some words of wisdom to the nation following the recent publishing of his peer reviewed and widely acclaimed paper "You don't catch Corona in pubs".
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/MrMichaelEU/status/1240945978980605952?s=20



Shitbag. Who knew?


----------



## nickyboy (20 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> I'm not trying to be an arse but... what level of social distancing do you expect to see in a barber shop?


There was a queue for a haircut and everyone in the queue was sitting next to one another. I refused to sit


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (20 Mar 2020)

I never realised it was that important to get a haircut. For once there is an upside to being bald...


----------



## Sterlo (20 Mar 2020)

I've just got an email re social distancing...from my dentist, I've never had a check up done with a 2mtr mirror before.


----------



## Pale Rider (20 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/GabyMcKay/status/1241000429183434752/photo/1



There are worse things than the virus.

Being confined in a noisy spit hole in ruddy Airdrie at 2am being one of those things.


----------



## ozboz (20 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> If that's what the Sky report said then it's pretty poor quality reporting.
> The virus causes pneumonia in some cases, which is what leads to the most severe complications, it isn't 'like a very bad pneumonia'.
> According to the figures, Germany is having a lower death rate, possibly due to more extensive testing.


I know what I saw and heard , Watch it for yourself , it repeats quite regularly and just for good measure the Spaniards are reporting a higher incidence
Edit
But I hope your right, and it is bad reporting ,


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Mar 2020)

Northwick Park Hospital, Harrow, has gone critical, having no critical care capacity left, according to the Guardian live feed. This is only just beginning.


----------



## MontyVeda (20 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> There was a queue for a haircut and everyone in the queue was sitting next to one another. I refused to sit


If you want to take social distancing seriously... I'd have advised against taking the boy to a barber shop at all.


----------



## Unkraut (20 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Ladies and gentlemen, Dr Tim Martin offers some words of wisdom to the nation following the recent publishing of his peer reviewed and widely acclaimed paper "You don't catch Corona in pubs".


What kind of a country is it that produces this mentality? Has he done a cost/benefit analysis of profits earned by keeping pubs open and full and the potential loss of earnings from people becoming sick? 

Loss of the enjoyment of a pub for say 5 or 6 weeks isn't really very much in comparison with an average lifespan of 7 to 8 decades.

Whilst it may be true that over here use has been made of the time prior to the massive increase in infections, a survey quoted this morning (RKI again) showed there are still far too many who think this is govt overreaction and propaganda, and who don't wish to take it seriously, and therefore won't abide by the washing/distancing regime.


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Panic buying now threatening zoo animals lives 
Lets hope domestic pets don't suffer either 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-51972533


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

rualexander said:


> That doesn't make much sense.
> Presumably you mean asymptomatic.
> The antibody test is most useful in confirming who has had the disease and can therefore be assumed to be largely immune and unable to contribute to further spread, and they can return to work and a 'normal' life as much as possible.



It does make sense, it's your problem if it doesn't make sense to you. Picking up on spelling mistakes and being patronising ain't gonna get people explaining things to you. If you read up about it you'll find why it is like that and that it doesn't 'doesn't make sense' like you claim. It does make sense because the tests are different and have advantages and disadvantages (some of which I didn't list).

Your second sentence is unnecessary and merely repeating what the chief medical officer has said on numerous occasions and not contested (it's trivial for the point of this debate). It's also not directly relevant to the point you're calling into question.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Mar 2020)

I wandered down to my local Lidl and was surprised to see the car park quite quiet so I went inside (my wife being in a vulnerable group, I'm being very cautious). There was plenty of bread so I picked up a loaf and a sticky bun. Not many people in the aisles so it was easy to keep a safe distance. No pasta or sauces but hey-ho. Then I came to the checkouts - massive queue, all bunched up next to each other and only 1 till open. I put the bread and bun back then walked out.


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

Kempstonian said:


> Sorry - didn't read the whole thread.


Naughty step is that way——->


----------



## Accy cyclist (20 Mar 2020)

Are any of you fellow cyclists staying off your bikes during the crisis? I fear having an off then ending up in the A&E! Not only the wait for treatment will be so long,providing they have the capacity to treat you,but also who wants to and up in hospital with this virus knocking about?!


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> I never realised it was that important to get a haircut. For once there is an upside to being bald...


Expect a rush on electric hair clippers..


----------



## randynewmanscat (20 Mar 2020)

Sterlo said:


> I've just got an email re social distancing...from my dentist, I've never had a check up done with a 2mtr mirror before.


Wait until you see the extension for the drill and the ultrasonic descaler


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Northwick Park Hospital, Harrow, has gone critical, having no critical care capacity left, according to the Guardian live feed. This is only just beginning.


Seems like a perfect moment for a full inner M25 lockdown....


----------



## randynewmanscat (20 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> I wonder if Tim Martin and Stanley Johnson would volunteer to sit (right) next to a confirmed, infectious Corona virus victim in an over-heated pub.
> 
> I could probably have a wild stab at the answer...


Sit next to the sort of bile spewer they play to, the one that spits his words out.


----------



## Unkraut (20 Mar 2020)

Just about to do my one hour round to keep fit - neighbours said the neighbouring village is now under complete lockdown, police doing the rounds with megaphones. Loads of elderly live there, so I assume there have been some cases reported. Brings it home to you when it gets this close.


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Here’s the Nature article on hydroxychloroquine
> 
> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0
> 
> Edit: it’s a somewhat difficult read but this is its conclusion - results show that HCQ can efficiently inhibit SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro. In combination with its anti-inflammatory function, we predict that the drug has a good potential to combat the disease.



The article would go well with the speed pharmacology video on covid-19 (which mentions theoretical mechanisms of drugs).

Hydroxycloroquine a lot is known about as a fair number of patients take it for non-malaria conditions. It has a long list of contraindications listed in Stockley's, highly relevant to potential covid-19 patients with most 'underlying conditions', definitely the need for a clinical trial.


----------



## MarkF (20 Mar 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Are any of you fellow cyclists staying off your bikes during the crisis? I fear having an off then ending up in the A&E! Not only the wait for treatment will be so long,providing they have the capacity to treat you,but also who wants to and up in hospital with this virus knocking about?!



Went for nice ride yesterday, will have another tomorrow, canal jaunts. Only genuine cases are willingly entering our A&E Accy, all the time wasters and oddballs are nowhere to be seen, some will register at reception but then wait outside rather than sit with strangers.


----------



## guitarpete247 (20 Mar 2020)

I'm a supply teacher. Was just doing long term (18 months) at same school. Today I've been laid off. No chance of job for the foreseeable. What are my rights. I contacted my agency they didn't know what to suggest. I'll call job centre Monday. I have some savings but not enough to live on till September.
School told me just after we dismissed year 10 at the end of the day.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (20 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Northwick Park Hospital, Harrow, has gone critical, having no critical care capacity left, according to the Guardian live feed. This is only just beginning.



You are right.

Separately the MP for Brent tweeted "...a doctor who informed me that Medical staff do not have Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and some are sharing masks." 

FFS!

AFAIK Northwick Park is the largest NHS hospital in West London. When my bikes (24.5" in old money) are given away, please be good and form an orderly queue?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (20 Mar 2020)




----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> You are right.



Sky reporting it's been downgraded again. I just hope that's right for the moment.


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Right that's it every thing closed from tonight. That's what you get when you don't play by the rules well done.


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Some infographics from corriere della sera going up to yesterday.

Anomalous bits are Molise (small region), Basilicata (rural) and Trentino (autonomous) that had a kink that was positive for a bit.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (20 Mar 2020)




----------



## Beebo (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Right that's it every thing closed from tonight. That's what you get when you don't play my the rules well done.


It was a stupid idea in the first place. Keep the pubs open but tell people not to go to the pub.


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Right that's it every thing closed from tonight.


Anyone got the number for the Samaritans?


----------



## Rezillo (20 Mar 2020)

Johnson just been on tv giving his daily address. To me, he appears to have no conviction in what he is saying: it's the sort of rambling stuff you add to an exam question answer you know nothing about to make it look as if you do. Random raps on the podium; it's just embarrassing.

The chancellor, on the other hand, looks quite impressive, given that he's been thrown in at the deepest end imaginable.


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> It was a stupid idea in the first place. Keep the pubs open but tell people not to go to the pub.



It seems to have worked in some cases, but rather variable. 

Packed pubs in London, Hampshire, Hertfordshire or Glasgow does sound insane.


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

True but still madness that many not all thought so what who cares.


----------



## fossyant (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Panic buying now threatening zoo animals lives
> Lets hope domestic pets don't suffer either
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-51972533



There is next to no pet food in the supermarkets already


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Anyone got the number for the Samaritans?



116 123 

In all seriousness if anyone really needs help just phone them it's free. Don't just say your ok.


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Not closing stuff sooner bad in the sense that 'advice' has very big insurance consequences for employers and knock ons to workers, employees and self employed.


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> There is next to no pet food in the supermarkets already


I know I've got about a 6 week's I managed to get a small box to top up the supply. It's not my dog's fault we are in this mess.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (20 Mar 2020)




----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

The new package to guarantee 80% of wages is massive add in the rest and boy it's one big bill. The years after this are going to interesting.


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

DCMO just said ok to go out on a bike ride 
But no social contact or share equipment. She clearly has never had a favourite bike


----------



## SpokeyDokey (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> True but still madness that many not all thought so what who cares.



Eats shoots and leaves.


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Eats shoots and leaves.



I think that's what most of the population is doing by bogroll buying habits.


----------



## mjr (20 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> There was a queue for a haircut and everyone in the queue was sitting next to one another. I refused to sit


Haircuts in Belgium by appointment only, according to TV5. No waiting allowed now. If they ain't ready for you, you can't go in.


----------



## gavroche (20 Mar 2020)

There was no shortage of dog food in my local Morrison this morning. The shelf was not full but there was some.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> The new package to guarantee 80% of wages is massive add in the rest and boy it's one big bill. The years after this are going to interesting.



No different to QE really - just a different set of recipients. Money squirted into the economy, circulates, generates tax and round and round it goes. Gov' not really bothered where the money is as long as it's circulating.

My schoolboy economics are possibly flawed but that's my simple explanation of how it works.


----------



## Salty seadog (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> The new package to guarantee 80% of wages is massive add in the rest and boy it's one big bill. The years after this are going to interesting.



It's as old and as true as the hills; government's don't have money, it's our money and they are there to spend it in our best interests. This is very much a loan to society who will have to pay it back. Realistically is there any other way to do this?

ETA. This government is not mine but they're in place at present. I'm going to have to let them work. 

I'm now going to shower


----------



## PK99 (20 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> sources required



post 3272 up thread


----------



## Dave7 (20 Mar 2020)

BoJo just told all pubs, clubs and restaurants to close from tonight .
My son, who runs a pub/small hotel says BoJo has promised them 80% of their wages....... not seen that myself and do not see how it is possible.
Edit
Just seen the above post.


----------



## mjr (20 Mar 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Are any of you fellow cyclists staying off your bikes during the crisis? I fear having an off then ending up in the A&E! Not only the wait for treatment will be so long,providing they have the capacity to treat you,but also who wants to and up in hospital with this virus knocking about?!


I'm riding but more cautiously, giving way if in any doubt at all. I don't want to end up in hospital but if I catch this bug, I want to be as fit as possible, plus it helps keep another illness of mine in check.

In short, unless you're really crash-prone, you're better off cycling IMO. Driving or mass transport is worse.


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

627 deaths in Italy today. Continuing the upward trend sadly.

https://www.corriere.it/salute/mala...zo-59339416-6ac7-11ea-b40a-2e7c2eee59c6.shtml


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Anyone got the number for the Samaritans?


Won't this one be shut as well?


----------



## mjr (20 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> BoJo just told all pubs, clubs and restaurants to close from tonight .
> My son, who runs a pub/small hotel says BoJo has promised them 80% of their wages....... not seen that myself and do not see how it is possible.


Grants announced today. Funded by massive public borrowing AFAICT.


----------



## Julia9054 (20 Mar 2020)

Today’s latest development.
Due to the list of key workers announced by the government appearing to include everyone, school being cancelled is . . . cancelled. 
We are all expected at work as normal on Monday morning!


----------



## glasgowcyclist (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> View attachment 509357
> 
> Some infographics from corriere della sera going up to yesterday.
> 
> Anomalous bits are Molise (small region), Basilicata (rural) and Trentino (autonomous) that had a kink that was positive for a bit.



Are you in Italy now?


----------



## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Won't this one be shut as well?
> 
> View attachment 509365


I know that pub!! Is it behind the Royal London? The Prof used to work opposite.


----------



## Dave7 (20 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> I'm riding but more cautiously, giving way if in any doubt at all. I don't want to end up in hospital but if I catch this bug, I want to be as fit as possible, plus it helps keep another illness of mine in check.
> 
> In short, unless you're really crash-prone, you're better off cycling IMO. Driving or mass transport is worse.


hahaha.....a bit late posting that comment after my 'off' today.





Bleeding has stopped now


----------



## mjr (20 Mar 2020)

guitarpete247 said:


> I'm a supply teacher. Was just doing long term (18 months) at same school. Today I've been laid off. No chance of job for the foreseeable. What are my rights. I contacted my agency they didn't know what to suggest. I'll call job centre Monday. I have some savings but not enough to live on till September.
> School told me just after we dismissed year 10 at the end of the day.


Just on BBC TV: if you were employed on 28 Feb, they can undo your layoff and gov.uk will pay 80% of your former wage.


----------



## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

Well here's another question.....retired medics going back to work in the NHS, will they get death in service benefits of existing staff? Very pertinent because many are coming from an at risk group. I do hope Hancock has thought this through.


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Are you in Italy now?



No. I just watch a lot of Italian news (a bit too much these days if you know what I mean). Most of what I say (which a lot of people here seem to puzzle over as it gets reported 6-24 hours later in English) comes from there. I do have acquaintances and friends in Italy. I don't post anything about Italy for a laugh, it's all been serious for weeks.

Your earlier question about the army enforcing quarantines, I believe this is actually going on in people trying to leave communes. May not be everywhere.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I know that pub!! Is it behind the Royal London? The Prof used to work opposite.


It is, yes, Turner Street.


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> hahaha.....a bit late posting that comment after my 'off' today.
> View attachment 509366
> 
> View attachment 509368
> ...


Ouchy!


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

I don’t know how to break the Pub news to Basil...


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> No different to QE really - just a different set of recipients. Money squirted into the economy, circulates, generates tax and round and round it goes. Gov' not really bothered where the money is as long as it's circulating.
> 
> My schoolboy economics are possibly flawed but that's my simple explanation of how it works.


True only right thing to do think it's payback time for banks after bail out.


----------



## ozboz (20 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Haircuts in Belgium by appointment only, according to TV5. No waiting allowed now. If they ain't ready for you, you can't go in.







that won’t bother Vinnie


----------



## mjr (20 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> It was a stupid idea in the first place. Keep the pubs open but tell people not to go to the pub.


I've been surprised none of the pubs old enough to have a "jug and bottle" aka "hole in the wall" have switched to doing only that yet, but maybe they will now. Might cause problems for ones in dispersal or no-carry zones but maybe no-one will be enforcing that with bigger problems to deal with.

I quite like the idea of getting an occasional pie and pint to bring home or a beer to enjoy alone watching the sunset from the quay but maybe that's not enough to keep a pub open.


----------



## Beebo (20 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> I've been surprised none of the pubs old enough to have a "jug and bottle" aka "hole in the wall" have switched to doing only that yet, but maybe they will now. Might cause problems for ones in dispersal or no-carry zones but maybe no-one will be enforcing that with bigger problems to deal with.
> 
> I quite like the idea of getting an occasional pie and pint to bring home or a beer to enjoy alone watching the sunset from the quay but maybe that's not enough to keep a pub open.


The cost would be prohibitive when you can get beer at £1 pint in a supermarket. Pubs would still have to charge more than £3 a pint.


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Well here's another question.....retired medics going back to work in the NHS, will they get death in service benefits of existing staff? Very pertinent because many are coming from an at risk group. I do hope Hancock has thought this through.


Well the question is under which pension scheme if it's the new one your going to get less.


----------



## mjr (20 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> hahaha.....a bit late posting that comment after my 'off' today.
> View attachment 509366
> 
> View attachment 509368
> ...


Don't do that again!  Or rather, don't do any worse.


----------



## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> 116 123
> 
> In all seriousness if anyone really needs help just phone them it's free. Don't just say your ok.


Absolutely. As @Salty seadog said upthread, the psychological damage from this is likely to be considerable. Get help sooner rather than later.


----------



## mjr (20 Mar 2020)

Beebo said:


> The cost would be prohibitive when you can get beer at £1 pint in a supermarket. Pubs would still have to charge more than £3 a pint.


Can get cheap coffees there too, but the cafe opposite still sells lots of £3 takeaway coffees - but I accept they might not sell enough to be worth doing.


----------



## Archie_tect (20 Mar 2020)

Schools closed indefinitely today... and every single youth appears to be walking down to the town centre having a laugh and no doubt getting up to something they shouldn't as it gets dark... the day they get out of school is usually the evening everything kicks off round here.

So much for the parents controlling their childrens' social distancing, and we'll have weeks of them wandering around being bored.


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Absolutely. As @Salty seadog said upthread, the psychological damage from this is likely to be considerable. Get help sooner rather than later.



Sadly samaritans seems to be one of the few things still going.

A huge amount got pulled this week. A lot of phone support lines have gone down too.


----------



## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Sadly samaritans seems to be one of the few things still going.
> 
> A huge amount got pulled this week. A lot of phone support lines have gone down too.


It crossed my mind as I was posting that they too will be under enormous strain, from both likely staff shortages and the sheer volume of calls.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (20 Mar 2020)

I was reading an article on the Beeb site today that says that isolation measures may be switched on and off to control infection rates and I have to confess to it feeling slightly disturbing that I'm part of a population that is being proactively manipulated.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (20 Mar 2020)

Pubs shut = beer and wine stockpiling by supermarket shoppers.


----------



## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)




----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

G y


SpokeyDokey said:


> Pubs shut = beer and wine stockpiling by supermarket shoppers.


it’s been happening for a while....


----------



## SpokeyDokey (20 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> G y
> 
> it’s been happening for a while....



Oh, maybe we don't drink much in Kendal as our local supermarket booze shelves have looked ok - unlike the toilet rolls, fresh meats blah, blah, blah.

I guess they're all going to get stripped tomorrow!


----------



## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Sadly samaritans seems to be one of the few things still going.
> 
> A huge amount got pulled this week. A lot of phone support lines have gone down too.


CALM web chat is now open, 5pm until midnight every day 365 as normal. They staying open thought this.


----------



## Glow worm (20 Mar 2020)

I've just cycled past our village pub and it's heaving. Hard to believe just how dumb people are sometimes!


----------



## randynewmanscat (20 Mar 2020)

How many of you expect to see travel restrictions in place before next Wednesday?


----------



## nickyboy (20 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> No different to QE really - just a different set of recipients. Money squirted into the economy, circulates, generates tax and round and round it goes. Gov' not really bothered where the money is as long as it's circulating.
> 
> My schoolboy economics are possibly flawed but that's my simple explanation of how it works.


Broadly correct. And given there is zero chance of meaningful inflation for the foreseeable future it is fairly low risk. The issue will be if interest rates start to increase before we can get this humungous debt under control, although that also seems unlikely. Our crumb if comfort is that every other country will be in the same boat


----------



## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Pubs shut = beer and wine stockpiling by supermarket shoppers.


I fear you are right. There’s no easy answer to all this.


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> It crossed my mind as I was posting that they too will be under enormous strain, from both likely staff shortages and the sheer volume of calls.



Absolutely. There may be a lag as some services people feel all right until something goes wrong and support that is no longer there or just don't know where to look for info. I volunteed on-line. I'm not sure how many different organisations have transitioned to other tech options such as phone lines being done from home instead of a central location, face to face support becoming phone, face to face support being video conferencing etc (the latter for me).

P.S. I really did see a lot of services announcing on social media that the phone line/groups/whatever had ended. Transitioned less sure about.


----------



## nickyboy (20 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Oh, maybe we don't drink much in Kendal as our local supermarket booze shelves have looked ok - unlike the toilet rolls, fresh meats blah, blah, blah.
> 
> I guess they're all going to get stripped tomorrow!


Spent many a happy night in the Queens in my youth (I used to own a house in Stricklandgate). One day, when all this comes to an end, I'll tell the story of how I was banned for life from the New Inn


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I fear you are right. There’s no easy answer to all this.



It will be happening tonight on the way home. 

Booze is the best bit of a supermarket to work in my opinion. Instead of having people threatening to punch your lights out as there's no bog roll you become someone's 'best friend' if you genuinely think there might be some booze in the back or a delivery just coming in .


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Pubs shut = beer and wine stockpiling by supermarket shoppers.


An appropriate time for supporting your local craft brewery if they have a canning line. Deptford's Villages brewery dropped me off a case on Monday. Their Taproom and pub outlets are no use to them now.


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Oh, maybe we don't drink much in Kendal as our local supermarket booze shelves have looked ok - unlike the toilet rolls, fresh meats blah, blah, blah.
> 
> I guess they're all going to get stripped tomorrow!


Last Friday, all the boxes of cheap lager gone..


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Mar 2020)

This Chancellor is coming across very well.


SpokeyDokey said:


> I was reading an article on the Beeb site today that says that isolation measures may be switched on and off to control infection rates and I have to confess to it feeling slightly disturbing that I'm part of a population that is being proactively manipulated.



I kinda get that. If you take it as read that most people are going to catch this and it's important to keep the flow into the NHS at manageable levels it makes sense to control that flow by controlling the number of people getting infected. All the while keeping the most vulnerable isolated until a vaccine is available. 

My wife and I expect her to be staying indoors for the rest of the year and we think we've devised a regime we can bring in when things are relaxed enough for me to go to work.


----------



## nickyboy (20 Mar 2020)

There are nearly 80,000 A&E admissions for "unintentional injuries" relating to alcohol (I presume this means falling over etc) every year. 

https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-inf...statistical/statistics-on-alcohol/2019/part-1

I guess we will see a big reduction of these on the front line as "home drinking" feels much less susceptible than pub drinking which should take some pressure off A&E staff too?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> There are nearly 80,000 A&E admissions for "unintentional injuries" relating to alcohol (I presume this means falling over etc) every year.
> 
> https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-inf...statistical/statistics-on-alcohol/2019/part-1
> 
> I guess we will see a big reduction of these on the front line as "home drinking" feels much less susceptible than pub drinking which should take some pressure off A&E staff too?



Also less fighting in the streets and drunk driving


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> This Chancellor is coming across very well.
> 
> I kinda get that. If you take it as read that most people are going to catch this and it's important to keep the flow into the NHS at manageable levels it makes sense to control that flow by controlling the number of people getting infected. All the while keeping the most vulnerable isolated until a vaccine is available.



On/off just reflect cases starting to come back rapidly or 2nd peak in winter. Or that we don't know what'll happen. Italy a good case in point, we're watching that country and the figures today are absolutely catastrophic. Better news from China no new cases again, but importing cases (and apparently picking them up).


----------



## Blue Hills (20 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Spent many a happy night in the Queens in my youth (I used to own a house in Stricklandgate). One day, when all this comes to an end, I'll tell the story of how I was banned for life from the New Inn


we need some light relief - do tell us now. special measures.


----------



## Blue Hills (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> On/off just reflect cases starting to come back rapidly or 2nd peak in winter. Or that we don't know what'll happen. Italy a good case in point, we're watching that country and the figures today are absolutely catastrophic. Better news from China no new cases again, but importing cases (and apparently picking them up).


It's been asked before but does anyone believe the figures from china?
they are saying zero apart from in folk arrived from abroad?
sounds very hard to believe to me.


----------



## newfhouse (20 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> If you take it as read that most people are going to catch this and it's important to keep the flow into the NHS at manageable levels it makes sense to control that flow by controlling the number of people getting infected.


Do you think anyone has meaningful control of the infection rate? I bet there are all sorts of unforeseen inputs, hysteresis, and latency issues that make it near impossible. Even if there is a joystick, who would you trust to be in the pilot’s seat?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Mar 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Do you think anyone has meaningful control of the infection rate? I bet there are all sorts of unforeseen inputs, hysteresis, and latency issues that make it near impossible. Even if there is a joystick, who would you trust to be in the pilot’s seat?



I think they can in the overall scheme of things. Total isolation* would mean zero new infections, no isolation at all would mean X new infections. If they can keep a broad handle on it, maybe they can more or less control it.

* I know total isolation isn't possible.

I'm not an expert and I readily defer to those with real expertise on this board, but I'm not a particularly stupid man and I'd hope I could work things out.


----------



## RoadRider400 (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> True only right thing to do think it's payback time for banks after bail out.


To some extent they are bailing out the banks again indirectly. By ensuring most people have enough money to pay their credit card bills. Not to say I disagree with what they are doing because I think its bloody brilliant.


----------



## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Do you think anyone has meaningful control of the infection rate? I bet there are all sorts of unforeseen inputs, hysteresis, and latency issues that make it near impossible. Even if there is a joystick, who would you trust to be in the pilot’s seat?


I think that's the difficulty - Government see this like a machine. Pull a few levers, turn a few dials and you can control it. The public's health is much more of a complex system which is constantly changing. The only thing the health authorities can do is to respond - often with hidden unintended consequences. For example shut schools to reduce the infection among children but this has the effect of raising it among grandparents (who now look after the kids).


----------



## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> It's been asked before but does anyone believe the figures from china?
> they are saying zero apart from in folk arrived from abroad?
> sounds very hard to believe to me.



Well if loads of people start dying in a month they/we'll find out. Or perhaps we don't.

In general I believe the figures are lowish, just because of the extremely burdensome monitoring of citizens for their temperatures and everything else. Same thing goes on here to a lesser extent- Boris could have closed pubs because in London phone data was being looked at and too many packed pubs and people travelling about. 

Again that sort of thing comes down to testing and if/when these mobile antibody tests come out we'll really find out.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Sky reporting it's been downgraded again. I just hope that's right for the moment.


Just heard through the nhs grapevine, that at least 5 doctors are on ventilators in London.


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## Rezillo (20 Mar 2020)

Well, two rather different takes on the same thing:

https://www.ipswichstar.co.uk/news/southwold-and-aldeburgh-second-homeowners-coronavirus-1-6570078

Ian Bradbury, town mayor of Southwold, expressed his concern that the influx was also impact[ing] on the supply of food and other commodities.

He said: “The second homeowners are already here and there will be more tomorrow. They should think about the impact they will leave on our town. The shelves in shops have been devastated in the last 24 hours.”

He added: “This virus is going to get all of us and the death toll modelling in Suffolk is alarming. Southwold is no safer place than anywhere else.”


or there's this:

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/southwold-second-homes-coronavirus-isolation-1-6570538

"Councillor David Beavan, who represents Southwold on East Suffolk Council, said visitors to the town were “always welcome." He said: “They are clearing out the shops, but that is a pretty good thing for our businesses.

“Some people are panic buying and that isn’t helping, and we are trying to get things rationed by asking local shops to keep back some essentials like toilet rolls so they don’t all disappear, but people are quite entitled to buy things".


----------



## Blue Hills (20 Mar 2020)

Another london shoppimg scout - been back a week and no real shopping achieved as yet.

Lidl - didn't seem too packed seemed to be OK on fruit and veg, picked some brocolli, re point above, plenty of el cheapo special offer wine (£2.99) so picked a bottle, got some oranges, no pasta or rice, then saw the great big queue snaking round the perimeter of the shop for the tills - didn't want to stand close to folk for so long (apart from fag for such meagre pick-ups) so put the stuff back and left. This Lidl a bit odd as no trolleys at all - just those wheeled basket things - so think this one will suppress panic buying and be better soon. Hours changed to clos at 8, not 10.

Peddalled off to Aldi up the road - way way less of a queue outside (they are limiting entry) than yesterday. Spoke to a nice chap outside who said he had just had to wait the time it took to smoke a fag. I was there sometime after nine - he said supplies OK, but no pasta by then. He said they had cut folk to ONE item of any type so that should cut the nutjobs pretty quickly I reckon. (they let him have TWO cans of dog food though)
I told him that the next Aldi down the road had had shoppers fighting (so I was told) the day before - he said he tried to stay away from such incidents as he was a part time cage fighter ! - looking at him, nice as he was, i could well believe it.

Off to to previous day's fighting - again less of a queue outside though I could see long queues inside - so left.
In short, I think things are getting better - can wait until next week.
And it was a bike ride


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## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Just heard through the nhs grapevine, that at least 5 doctors are on ventilators in London.


It doesn't surprise me. There's a huge debate going on about the suitability of the PPE (personal protective equipment) that GP practices are being given. This is what has been issued to a frontline nurse:






I've seen students walking in the streets in Oxford with better gear.

Edit: Issued to a front line nurse in general practice - just to clarify


----------



## newfhouse (20 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm not an expert and I readily defer to those with real expertise on this board, but I'm not a particularly stupid man and I'd hope I could work things out.


I agree, to the extent that broadly there’s a fast and a slow pedal. I worry that nobody has any experience of operating the machine, the brakes are not very effective, and many of the passengers are screaming to go faster.

But we are all on board, so buckle up.


----------



## Blue Hills (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Well if loads of people start dying in a month they/we'll find out. Or perhaps we don't.



I wasn't really asking about a month hence but now.

Must say I don't trust the chinese government. Never have.

and it just seems so unlikely in such a massive place with such a massive population.

I doubt they do real press conferences.


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## Blue Hills (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It doesn't surprise me. There's a huge debate going on about the suitability of the PPE (personal protective equipment) that GP practices are being given. This is what has been issued to a frontline nurse:
> 
> View attachment 509382
> 
> ...


cripes - that's party gear.


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## RoadRider400 (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It doesn't surprise me. There's a huge debate going on about the suitability of the PPE (personal protective equipment) that GP practices are being given. This is what has been issued to a frontline nurse:
> 
> View attachment 509382
> 
> ...


Is that the new equipment they were talking about recently? its bloody disgraceful.
The government have spend a shed load of money tonight. They should extend that to buying every P3 respirator in the country.


----------



## Fab Foodie (20 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Spent many a happy night in the Queens in my youth (I used to own a house in Stricklandgate). One day, when all this comes to an end, I'll tell the story of how I was banned for life from the New Inn


Start writing now if I were you...


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## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Is that the new equipment they were talking about recently? its bloody disgraceful.
> The government have spend a shet load of money tonight. They should extend that to buying every P3 respirator in the country.


Hospitals get better PPE but primary care and general practice are being overwhelmed. I've heard of one practice in London where, at the current rate, all their 30 staff will be self-isolating by the start of next week. This stuff is really serious.


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## deptfordmarmoset (20 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Also less fighting in the streets and drunk driving


I'd predict a rise in domestic violence, though.


----------



## MarkF (20 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> There are nearly 80,000 A&E admissions for "unintentional injuries" relating to alcohol (I presume this means falling over etc) every year.
> 
> https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-inf...statistical/statistics-on-alcohol/2019/part-1
> 
> I guess we will see a big reduction of these on the front line as "home drinking" feels much less susceptible than pub drinking which should take some pressure off A&E staff too?


Yes, not seen any drunks for a week, normally they are in every night, often the same people day after day. Also, until last week ambulances would pull up, bring in patient, deal with procedures then go off on another job. On Monday night I counted 9 ambulances parked up outside, no jobs!

My thoughts are not with the contracted staff but with the "flexible" workforce, the agency and bank (zero hour) staff which the hospital relies on, right now, it doesn't need them.


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## Joey Shabadoo (20 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'd predict a rise in domestic violence, though.



Quite probably. Apparently I'm driving the wife nuts because I won't sit still and keep finding things to do.


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## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

Well......have I spoken too soon? The Prof has come up with some research undertaken by the Chinese which says that an ordinary (well fitted) face mask is just as effective as a respirator in protecting against flu virus.....as long as the clinician is wearing eye protection!! There are stories of doctors wearing swimming googles during a consultation.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (20 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Pubs shut = beer and wine stockpiling by supermarket shoppers.



Certainly yesterday my local supermarket had packed shelves in the booze aisles. I drink maybe two to three bottles of beer a week so not a heavy drinker but don’t think I can be arsed fighting over it in a shop so I’ve taken advantage of a recent introductory offer of 20 cans from Flavourly.com.

Delivery is free and you get two cans of each of ten varieties, a couple of glasses, a snack and a magazine all for under £20.

You are not tied in to a subscription, you’re only buying this single delivery unless you choose to buy more.

If anyone else wants to take advantage of this, go to www.flavourly.com/BGWTW and the offer price will be applied.

(Edited to correct reference to bottles when I should have said cans.)


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## RecordAceFromNew (20 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> It's been asked before but does anyone believe the figures from china?
> they are saying zero apart from in folk arrived from abroad?
> sounds very hard to believe to me.



I understand why you don't believe the Chinese figures, but what about Taiwan, or Hongkong?

If you have been following their status, you would have found that nearly all their last few weeks' new infections were the result of those returning from abroad, and very low until in recent days, when inbound traffic of their nationals has turned into a stampede due to the direction us in the West are heading.

I am not a believer of the 2nd/3rd... wave theory. I think it is going to simmer with minor peaks and troughs continuously for COVID-19 (while all bets are off for any nasty mutation obviously), it will be achieved by increasingly stringent, effective and efficient* border control, until a vaccine is found.

* i.e. quick turnaround for test results - I understand currently it is 24 hours in UK, yet it takes as little as 4 hours in Italy, which undoubtedly will be further reduced down the line.


----------



## randynewmanscat (20 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> The nearest pub to me (an independent) has a large outdoor area which has lighting which can be seen from Ursa Minor. This was on last night when I passed, so I guess they're still open. I don't know how busy they actually are, but there were fewer cars about.
> 
> A silver lining to the general situation is that Tim Martin is pi$$ed off.


I just watched his piece to camera, when did he become an expert? I am flabbergasted.


----------



## MarkF (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It doesn't surprise me. There's a huge debate going on about the suitability of the PPE (personal protective equipment) that GP practices are being given. This is what has been issued to a frontline nurse:
> 
> View attachment 509382
> 
> ...



That is my kit. Senior staff have the same but a mask with an attached visor.


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## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> * i.e. quick turnaround for test results - I understand currently it is 24 hours in UK, yet it takes as little as 4 hours in Italy, which undoubtedly will be further reduced down the line.



12 labs + whoever PHE has contracted out to. Lots of driving of samples? This isn't the case in some bits of Italy as I understand from Italian news. Labs relatively close to hot spots.

It can't really be reduced much below four hours as I understand it for logistical reasons.


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## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> cripes - that's party gear.



It is compared to Italy. Practically the whole population are wearing ffp2 and ffp3 masks. Rarely eye wear thought. Interesting from a previous post...


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## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> It is compared to Italy. Practically the whole population are wearing ffp2 and ffp3 masks. Rarely eye wear thought. Interesting from a previous post...


And the research says it’s effective against flu virus but we know Corona is different.


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## Ming the Merciless (20 Mar 2020)

Anti body test 


View: https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1240689935557865472


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## perplexed (20 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I just watched his piece to camera, when did he become an expert? I am flabbergasted.



His expertise in nobbery has been some years in the honing.


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## RecordAceFromNew (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Well......have I spoken too soon? The Prof has come up with some research undertaken by the Chinese which says that an ordinary (well fitted) face mask is just as effective as a respirator in protecting against flu virus.....as long as the clinician is wearing eye protection!! There are stories of doctors wearing swimming googles during a consultation.


I would have thought since droplets can fall on one's eyes, absence of visor/goggle would always put one at some risk, with surgical mask or respirator.

Before generalisation, I think there are a couple of key points in the report that bear careful consideration:

"*The reason for the similar effects* on preventing influenza for the use of N95 respirators versus surgical masks *may be related to low compliance to N95* respirators wear, which may lead to more frequent doffing compared with surgical masks. *Although N95 respirators may confer superior protection in laboratory studies designing to achieve 100% intervention adherence, the routine use of N95 respirators seems to be less acceptable due to more significant discomfort in real-world practice*. Therefore, the benefit of N95 respirators of fitting tightly to faces is offset or subjugated. *However, it should be noted that the surgical masks are primarily designed to protect the environment from the wearer, whereas the respirators are supposed to protect the wearer from the environment.*"

It has always been clear that respirators require proper fitting (I think medics are retrained annually for such), upon which near 100% seal is possible unless one is hairy, while a proper seal is impossible with surgical masks. I have tried both respirators and surgical masks - I find them equally uncomfortable, but YMMV.

What I find difficult to understand/accept, is how our government seems to discourage people wearing any. Other governments (e.g. China, Hongkong, Korea, Japan e.g.) clearly don't agree, so either they are wrong, or we are.

Whom do you trust?


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## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

The problem is it causes panic and stockpiling of masks which may have consequences for medics.

Here in a supermarket someone was ejected a couple of weeks ago for wearing a ffp2 as the supermarket thought it'd cause panic.


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## RecordAceFromNew (20 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'd predict a rise in domestic violence, though.



While no more pub fights...


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## Rocky (20 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I would have thought since droplets can fall on one's eyes, absence of visor/goggle would always put one at some risk, with surgical mask or respirator.
> 
> Before generalisation, I think there are a couple of key points in the report that bear careful consideration:
> 
> ...


It's a really good point and I gather that's why face masks in the public aren't particularly effective as a preventative measure because they are not fitted or worn properly and people still touch their faces/lips even though they are wearing them.


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## vickster (20 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> While no more pub fights...
> 
> View attachment 509395


Think you mean unboxing 👍


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## deptfordmarmoset (20 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Think you mean unboxing 👍


While these guys are just asking for it....


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## Ming the Merciless (20 Mar 2020)




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## AuroraSaab (20 Mar 2020)

We eat in Wetherspoons a lot, and I meet friends there for the cheap coffee. I will usually happily defend them, but my God, that Tim Martin is being a humongous bellend currently. I might be boycotting them when this is all over.


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## RecordAceFromNew (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The problem is it causes panic and stockpiling of masks which may have consequences for medics.



Are you suggesting they are likely beneficial but our government lie, so that more may be available to medics, while if they had been conscientious and proactive they would have stockpiled them en-masse cheaply beforehand?

Think masks/respirators of all kinds were sold out in shops, at regular prices that is, about two weeks ago in UK. I wouldn't be surprised if practically all are imported.


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## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Pubs in the city centre are packed apparently. From a friend who has been in a few and I won't be seeing him for a while or won't be seeing him for a while...


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## perplexed (20 Mar 2020)

It says something about Martin when even Piers Morgan thinks he's a monumental dick.


View: https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1241035158251331586?s=20


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## Mugshot (20 Mar 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> We eat in Wetherspoons a lot, and I meet friends there for the cheap coffee. I will usually happily defend them, but my God, that Tim Martin is being a humongous bellend currently. I might be boycotting them when this is all over.


Welcome to the Remoaner club


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## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Are you suggesting they are likely beneficial but our government lie, so that more may be available to medics, while if they had been conscientious and proactive they would have stockpiled them en-masse cheaply beforehand?
> 
> Think masks/respirators of all kinds were sold out in shops, at regular prices that is, about two weeks ago in UK. I wouldn't be surprised if practically all are imported.



I've not read the government's nudge unit or behavioural stuff that other people have put up. It isn't just the UK that's had this problem. I don't have the stomach to read all the stuff coming out of Washington State or California these days, but it looks like other countries have problems. I've no idea why there are quite so many masks (where mask is a generic word for mask and respirator) in Italy, but there are.

I do think in general that yes a lot of government's policy is motivated from not getting people to panic.

Masks and respirators are highly beneficial to medics and probably for other staff interacting with the public such as pharmacies, shops and for patients who have the virus. 8.3% of all positive cases are medics in Italy. They help get the infection rate down outside the home (or within if people were wearing them inside) which all adds up.

I work from the assumption that there aren't enough in the UK for mass wearing, so what's the best use of them? If they weren't in short supply, yes people would be wearing them routinely when going out. Well I said would...

Speaking generally in Italy, schools were closed early on, masks worn by high percentage of the population. It's not clear at all and to be determined by others that these two measures were particularly effective regrettably. 

I also think people don't play a blind bit of notice to what people say and I have no idea why you think they do, again citing Italy as an example - it took 5 bites of the cherry. People are laughing at Boris with let's call it two sets of soft measures so far and closures today. Even Germany which I know a lot less about seems to be getting annoyed and saying Monday it's more measures if this doesn't work.


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## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

Been out with dog and I’m angry as f.. the local posh wine shop. Is only having its weekly wine evening for its select customers. They are all packed in and most are of risk age.

After all what been said today. It’s just utterly beyond words. Clearly too posh to care When I spotted it I just thought my wife’s on the front line having to deal with this. I so felt like going in and telling them all to get the f... of home.


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## Unkraut (20 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I just thought my wife’s on the front line having to deal with this. I so felt like going in and telling them all to get the f... of home.


I think you would have been well within your rights to have done so. The fewer social contacts, the quicker it will be to get on top of this pandemic - meanwhile sparing the healthcare system from overload.


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## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I think you would have been well within your rights to have done so. The fewer social contacts, the quicker it will be to get on top of this pandemic - meanwhile sparing the healthcare system from overload.



I think there needs to be more government/other information from organisations or people about things to do other than pubs/restaurants/shopping. 

Classic example is parkrun. Yes you can't have hundreds of people congregating, but the places existed before parkrun and are often common meeting places. If people are getting out doing things outdoors in 2s and 3s and sticking to the same circles/family, in other words a bit like the CDMO was saying people with similar risk levels then that's a good thing. 

Also things other than buying disney's streaming service or pornhub.


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## Proto (20 Mar 2020)

DiL is a paediatrician (Devon) and somewhat frustrated that they have some healthy babies that can be discharged but cannot do so as there is no formula available in the local shops, thus denying some sick babies the care they need. Quite unbelievable. 🙁

PS and not a single face mask available for staff. On their way, apparently. 3 days now.


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## Proto (20 Mar 2020)

Eldest daughter is a uni senior lecturer, physiotherapy. Uni is closed (although working online). She has been asked to return to big hospital to help hold the fort. Happy to do so but uni and hospital can’t agree who should pay her sick pay if she end up sick or self isolating (I think that’s the scenario 😟). Seems a bit ridiculous.


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## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

https://english.elpais.com/society/...ins-efforts-to-slow-coronavirus-outbreak.html

A piece about problems with testing in Spain.


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## Proto (20 Mar 2020)

PPS another daughter is a speech and language therapist, head & neck, (cancer, laryngectomies etc), big hospital. No face mask there either, last few days. 🙁


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## MarkF (20 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> PPS Another daughter is a speech and language therapist, head & neck, (cancer, laryngectomies etc), big hospital. No face mask there either, last few days. 🙁



Yes, but at my work the shortage appears to be self Inflicted. On my first virus focused shift & after my briefing l thought "Eh? This makes no sense, l am going to get through 50/60 masks a shift". There are 12 porters in 24 hours...


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## tom73 (20 Mar 2020)

well it was going to happen no cricket until May at earliest. 
starting later not going to easy fear they will just focus on the money games and forget the rest.
https://www.ecb.co.uk/news/1647413/ecb-announces-delay-to-professional-cricket-season


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## Rezillo (20 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Well, two rather different takes on the same thing:
> 
> https://www.ipswichstar.co.uk/news/southwold-and-aldeburgh-second-homeowners-coronavirus-1-6570078
> 
> ...



To confirm that Southwold has been invaded by a bunch of grossly irresponsible second home-owning idiots:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-51966938


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## stephec (20 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> It says something about Martin when even Piers Morgan thinks he's a monumental dick.
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1241035158251331586?s=20



There's a fair amount of pot kettle black going on there.


----------



## Buck (20 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Well here's another question.....retired medics going back to work in the NHS, will they get death in service benefits of existing staff? Very pertinent because many are coming from an at risk group. I do hope Hancock has thought this through.



A lot of retirees are also in their early to mid-50s so not so old! Not underplaying any risk and great that they can and are able to help.


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## midlife (20 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> PPS another daughter is a speech and language therapist, head & neck, (cancer, laryngectomies etc), big hospital. No face mask there either, last few days. 🙁



Off topic but I work in head and neck cancer arena and the speech and language therapists are fab . I guess I'll be in the big hospital soon. Can't complain as I take the King's shilling..


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## Proto (20 Mar 2020)

midlife said:


> Off topic but I work in head and neck cancer arena and the speech and language therapists are fab . I guess I'll be in the big hospital soon. Can't complain as I take the King's shilling..



She is fab! The loveliest young woman you could wish to meet. Yet, another is a police officer (and ex-pro cyclist). Son is civil engineering lecturer at a college in Devon.

So proud of them all. Really love my kids.

Tonight, as my wife and I are in self isolation, we had ‘Friday Night Dinner’ using Zoom Meeting software, each household cooked and laid a table, set up our laptops and socialised over the web. Worked really well!


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## Joey Shabadoo (20 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> I also think people don't play a blind bit of notice to what people say and I have no idea why you think they do, again citing Italy as an example - it took 5 bites of the cherry. People are laughing at Boris with let's call it two sets of soft measures so far and closures today.



I'm fuming tonight. My kid sister is a nursing assistant at Ninewells. As someone working in a hospital, my parents have had to tell her repeatedly that they couldn't meet her for dinner or go out shopping as both are in their 70s and my father has COPD. Tonight she's out partying, posting vids of her and her friends getting smashed in packed pubs. "Woo hoo - party time!".

I'm farking livid.


----------



## PK99 (20 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I think you would have been well within your rights to have done so. The fewer social contacts, the quicker it will be to get on top of this pandemic - meanwhile sparing the healthcare system from overload.



The way to stop the disgraceful behaviours is to make those doing it social pariahs - name and shame - disrupt the event.


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## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-20...nhs-staff-for-coronavirus-available-in-weeks/

some positive news someone's working on a mobile qPCR test kit. Every hospital in the land could have one of these. 1250 hospitals x batch 16 x 10 cycles per day = 200,000 samples per day. 

This is such good news that the government need detailed plans on how to distribute them and prevent obvious bottlenecks. Even how to deal with all the data if implemented properly. If both sides the pcr and antibody side work out they may even need a national covid-19 database.


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## Joey Shabadoo (20 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/resophonick/status/1240627507042365442


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## marinyork (20 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm fuming tonight. My kid sister is a nursing assistant at Ninewells. As someone working in a hospital, my parents have had to tell her repeatedly that they couldn't meet her for dinner or go out shopping as both are in their 70s and my father has COPD. Tonight she's out partying, posting vids of her and her friends getting smashed in packed pubs. "Woo hoo - party time!".
> 
> I'm farking livid.



Repeated on a grand scale. Unfortunately a lot of the conditions listed as being at risk are common. 

I got a closing time telephone call from a friend telling me about how busy the pub was and asking if I wanted to go out next Friday? Where? Someone random person's house. I probs can't see him for a while, doing too many things for my parents. In fairness he does think it's too late to implement anything and we're all doomed (although he thinks the death toll will be a lot lower than my estimates).


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## Unkraut (20 Mar 2020)

My boy has just come in brandishing his phone now listing the provisions and coming into effect of the anti-infection legislation. Effective midnight.

You can still use public highways to get to shops and other things necessary for daily life, but basically everything else is now prohibited. It is still possible to go for walks in the country, but either alone, or as a couple (with children), but under no circumstances to meet with other people, and always to keep the 1.50 metre apart rule. This will all be in force provisionally until 3rd April. Basically the same as Bavaria.

This was invoked with some regret, and the town mayor said most of the population had been keeping the existing restrictions admirably - except some young people were tending to congregate in too large a number, with the risk to them and the rest of the population. The police have been empowered to enforce the restrictions.


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## Mugshot (21 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> My wife works in a care home, they had a Tesco delivery today and the gaffer had ordered the max that he could (the rationing amounts are automatic on the online ordering system apparently) of various items, so, 5 packs of 18/24 bog rolls, they got 1 pack of 6. There are 15 residents in the home.


Little update to this, apparently they've had loads donated by various kind hearted souls, so they're sorted now 

However, her boss went to get a click and collect today and was have a general moan to the fella sorting it with him about the things they couldn't get etc etc, the Tesco fella, with the customers name covered of course, showed him the note for the next customer due, they had ordered (and had refused) £75.00 worth of toilet roll!


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## RecordAceFromNew (21 Mar 2020)

"Medics are warning that numbers are doubling every three or four days and that the NHS in London will be treating “thousands” of people with the disease within a fortnight.

Unpublished NHS figures obtained by the Guardian show that the number of people confirmed or suspected to have Covid-19 being treated in an intensive care unit (ICU) in hospitals in south London rose from seven on Friday 6 March to 93 on Tuesday 17 March – a fifteenfold increase in 12 days.

Doctors are worried that 86 of the 93 cases last Tuesday were on a ventilator... 82 of the 86 required level three care, in which they are anaesthetised and have a tube put down their throat and the ventilator takes over the work of their lungs while they are unconscious. The remaining 4 require ECMO*... the highest level of medical intervention the NHS can provide to try to keep alive someone whose lungs have failed. It involves taking blood out of their body, adding oxygen to it and putting it back in again.

The NHS and government have not published any figures showing how many people with Covid-19 are receiving critical care, even though Public Health England (PHE) now collects them each day from all 134 acute hospital trusts in England.

PHE and NHS England refused a Guardian request to see the latest data for both London and England as a whole because it was “still experimental” and involved some “quality” issues.

One doctor warned that it was only a matter of time before hospitals in London ran out of intensive care beds and had to start making difficult decisions about which patients could go on a ventilator.

Doctors also raised concerns about widespread shortages of the personal protective equipment needed to treat Covid-19 patients, given how infectious the disease is. “We are out of visors and masks are constantly running out in different locations,” said one."

Last week didn't they say the plan involves 60% of the population catching it?

* there are only 30 ECMO beds in the whole country


----------



## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> "Medics are warning that numbers are doubling every three or four days and that the NHS in London will be treating “thousands” of people with the disease within a fortnight.
> 
> Unpublished NHS figures obtained by the Guardian show that the number of people confirmed or suspected to have Covid-19 being treated in an intensive care unit (ICU) in hospitals in south London rose from seven on Friday 6 March to 93 on Tuesday 17 March – a fifteenfold increase in 12 days.



Sadly the figures the last three days make it clear that London is a week or two ahead of some other parts of the UK - hundreds more deaths in London by the end of the month.


----------



## Johnno260 (21 Mar 2020)

I’m totally livid, I can’t sleep, people I know live streaming from bars likes it’s New Year’s Eve.
My worst fears coming true that stupidity is what will make a bad situation worse.


----------



## ozboz (21 Mar 2020)

I’ll admit I was in the pub tonight, 
but on an errand ,
my Son lives there, earlier in the thread I posted he had gone into self lockdown , I was up there with food supplies and stuff , he’s a coeliac so it’s a bit harder to find some foods , but I managed , there were quite a few in the pub , but not crowded , but I was gobsmaked to see a couple with their 4/5 yo little girl , and she was running around like a looney, 
Sumat wrong with some people , 
Anyway an a brighter note , ozboz Jnr is feeling and looking a lot better ,I thank him upstairs , a big relief,
Keeps safe all ,


----------



## ozboz (21 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I’m totally livid, I can’t sleep, people I know live streaming from bars likes it’s New Year’s Eve.
> My worst fears coming true that stupidity is what will make a bad situation worse.



this is like being in a Hollywood Disaster flick,
I agree with you @Johnno260 , nightmare city 
Keep safe Fellah ,


----------



## ozboz (21 Mar 2020)

Keep Safe all ,


----------



## Fab Foodie (21 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Well......have I spoken too soon? The Prof has come up with some research undertaken by the Chinese which says that an ordinary (well fitted) face mask is just as effective as a respirator in protecting against flu virus.....as long as the clinician is wearing eye protection!! There are stories of doctors wearing swimming googles during a consultation.


How about gimp masks, does it mention them?


----------



## Fab Foodie (21 Mar 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> We eat in Wetherspoons a lot, and I meet friends there for the cheap coffee. I will usually happily defend them, but my God, that Tim Martin is being a humongous bellend currently. I might be boycotting them when this is all over.


Why wait...already have due to his Brexit bullschitt.


----------



## Fab Foodie (21 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Been out with dog and I’m angry as f.. the local posh wine shop. Is only having its weekly wine evening for its select customers. They are all packed in and most are of risk age.
> 
> After all what been said today. It’s just utterly beyond words. Clearly too posh to care When I spotted it I just thought my wife’s on the front line having to deal with this. I so felt like going in and telling them all to get the f... of home.


...natural selection....


----------



## Pale Rider (21 Mar 2020)

I am disappointed to hear of people who decided last night they were 'gonna party like it's 1999'.

Trying to look for a positive in what is a very negative act, I suppose it does indicate strength and determination not to be beaten or cow towed by the virus.

Albeit such behaviour is borne out of ignorance and stupidity.


----------



## Shut Up Legs (21 Mar 2020)

The supermarkets down under have for the last week or more had limits of 1 packet per person on toilet paper and a few other goods, and 2 per person for many other goods, and it appears to be working, because I was actually able to buy a packet of toilet paper this morning. Is it possible for bums to audibly breathe a sigh of relief?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://english.elpais.com/society/...ins-efforts-to-slow-coronavirus-outbreak.html
> 
> A piece about problems with testing in Spain.


The underlying warning seems to be ''if you don't look for it, it will come for you.''


----------



## newfhouse (21 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Albeit such behaviour is borne out of ignorance and stupidity.


This. They’re not standing up to a bully, real or imagined. The virus doesn’t care, and they are making things worse, not better.


----------



## Archie_tect (21 Mar 2020)

Who thought up the idea that parents would actively control their pre-teen children by keeping them at home? 

Within hours of closing schools indefinitely the children of our town and the wider catchment area were gathering in the park as they always do on the day that 'school holidays' start... they have no concept of social distancing because their parents clearly don't understand it either, or possibly can't stop them, or, more likely, don't care.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (21 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> I got a closing time telephone call from a friend telling me about how busy the pub was and asking if I wanted to go out next Friday? Where? Someone random person's house.


Yup, that's the next step.

The only thing that's going t stop these idiots is a curfew


----------



## PeteXXX (21 Mar 2020)

Typical!! Wall to wall sunshine for the weekend and the pubs and cake stops have to shut! 
An inconvenience for us, but a trading disaster for them


----------



## Adam4868 (21 Mar 2020)

Self employed 94 quid a week...FFS.


----------



## Pale Rider (21 Mar 2020)

newfhouse said:


> and they are making things worse, not better.



That's true, the virus must have been kept very busy last night colonising new people.

Someone on the radio was complaining it was particularly cruel introducing the restrictions on the Friday before Mother's Day, when lots of families will have had lunches booked.

As someone else said, heading off Mother's Day meals was an excellent idea because all those packed restaurants, including large numbers of vulnerable people, were a virus transmission disaster waiting to happen.


----------



## Archie_tect (21 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Self employed 94 quid a week...FFS.


if I'd started up as a limited company... I could've claimed 80% through PAYE... but I'd much rather we weren't in this situation and Covid-19 had never mutated at all.


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## Mike_P (21 Mar 2020)

Just been in local Aldi, everything almost in stock albeit down to two handwashes after I picked one up. Toliet rolls in many trolleys, did not look at that shelf. Oranges limited to Blood Oranges. Then into the local CoOp which seemed well stocked with slightly expensively priced (as normal) fruit but the fridges were looking pretty empty in places but being a coeliac the only fish available was the gluten free chunky breaded cod while the only cheese was the low fat variety that I buy anyway Now to try Waitrose after the restricted access period for a free newspaper if there are any left (spend £10 Inc price if paper and the paper is free)


----------



## Adam4868 (21 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> if I'd started up as a limited company... I could've claimed 80% through PAYE... but I'd much rather we weren't in this situation and Covid-19 had never mutated at all.


I don't really get your point ? I'm self employed so tell me how I get by on that.


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## Archie_tect (21 Mar 2020)

Sorry, Adam, I'm self-employed too... it's the flat rate so how can the Government pay all PAYE 80% of their salary regardless of their circumstances but self-employed £94 a week... again regardless of their circumstances.

There are going to be thousands in desperate measures having to self-isolate. The food bank collection points in supermarkets were completely empty yesterday and last week.


----------



## Adam4868 (21 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Sorry, Adam, I'm self-employed too... it's the flat rate so how can the Government pay all PAYE 80% of their salary regardless of their circumstances but self-employed £94 a week... again regardless of their circumstances.


Sorry touchy at the moment ! Impossible for me even pay the bills on 94 quid a week.Wont be long before I'm back in debt.


----------



## newfhouse (21 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> if I'd started up as a limited company... I could've claimed 80% through PAYE... but I'd much rather we weren't in this situation and Covid-19 had never mutated at all.


Owners of limited companies paying themselves mostly by way of dividends are going to regret that decision too, potentially.


----------



## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'd predict a rise in domestic violence, though.


I thought about that. Its very sad, people with friction in their relationship together without a break to lower the temperature. The added stress from fear of job loss or lack of money coupled with a partner who is drinking visibly rather than coming back from the pub drunk. Worse still for people living in a small place without somewhere to do your own thing in peace and quiet.


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## Archie_tect (21 Mar 2020)

Owners of limited companies avoiding tax don't need support... this is how the haves make sure they keep the money flowing in, even at times of desperation and national emergency. It's an unintended consequence of knee-jerk politics.


----------



## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> While no more pub fights...
> 
> View attachment 509395


British black humour, still my favourite sort.


----------



## Fab Foodie (21 Mar 2020)

Lots of parents now having to home-educate will realise the problem is not their kids teachers....


----------



## Archie_tect (21 Mar 2020)

Sad that many of those parents won't even think about home-educating... they'll want them out of the house.


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## Mo1959 (21 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Sad that many of those parents won't even think about home-educating... they'll want them out of the house.


This is what worries me. I think going from my experience of kids around here, that it will just be treated like an extra holiday and they will all be out running around in groups as normal.


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## Joey Shabadoo (21 Mar 2020)

View: https://imgur.com/xQnrkrQ


My sister last night  

"fark Covid" was the title


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## nickyboy (21 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I thought about that. Its very sad, people with friction in their relationship together without a break to lower the temperature. The added stress from fear of job loss or lack of money coupled with a partner who is drinking visibly rather than coming back from the pub drunk. Worse still for people living in a small place without somewhere to do your own thing in peace and quiet.


Mrs N works for a charity that provides counselling services. They are already seeing an increase in people coming and asking for help due to issues related to Covid-19


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## Mo1959 (21 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Mrs N works for a charity that provides counselling services. They are already seeing an increase in people coming and asking for help due to issues related to Covid-19


Another fear I have is that our already high suicide rate will take a massive jump 😢


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## PK99 (21 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Another fear I have is that our already high suicide rate will take a massive jump 😢



Unfortunate phrasing!


----------



## Mike_P (21 Mar 2020)

Toilet rolls all gone in Waitrose by those allowed in the first hour whom I am sure definitely all needed them, not. Got a paper which surprised me as the Times normally has sold out by 9 but trying to spend another £8 was difficult, freezers were blizted and whisky's on offer were not that tempting.


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## Duffy (21 Mar 2020)

I’m no regular fan of Nicola Sturgeon but she’s coming across positively statesmanlike compared to Bojo’s clown act.

I’m pleased she’s in charge up here

Coronavirus: Sturgeon warns of 'difficult days' amid compulsory closures https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51974969


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## RecordAceFromNew (21 Mar 2020)

I have found some neat graphics some clever people at the New England Complex Systems Institute have been showing. Instead of just showing national figures, painting the local pictures can be instructive. For example, the following two charts show how S Korea, and to a lesser extent Iran (who knew?) have been able to forestall geographical spread (by stopping red/brown moving to the right over time) and control growth (by turning red into brown e.g. with time):












On the other hand, Italy and Spain have not done very well at all:











The numbers in the boxes of course also show the scale of the tragedy unfolding locally in time.

What the Italian chart tells me, is that while Lombardia is leveling off now some 10 days after the 9th March national lockdown, growth remains significant in the neighbouring regions. I suspect @marinyork will be able to read more/better from the chart than I can.

I really hope the S Korean chart can stop the doubters doubt what a massive testing, strict tracing and isolation policy can achieve. Actually for that matter, a note published by these folks points out some fundamental shortcomings in the Neil Ferguson model (yes the model that supposedly changed the UK/USA direction early this week). A highly astute note imho, with important observations on how stoppable this thing is.

Haven't got a chart for it, but think we all know which one UK/London/Manchester/Birmingham etc. is going to resemble, tragically...


----------



## PeteXXX (21 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Lots of parents now having to home-educate will realise the problem is not their kids teachers....





Archie_tect said:


> Sad that many of those parents won't even think about home-educating... they'll want them out of the house.





Mo1959 said:


> This is what worries me. I think going from my experience of kids around here, that it will just be treated like an extra holiday and they will all be out running around in groups as normal.


My 12 Yr old granddaughter has been given a full, and I mean full, itinerary of schoolwork to do. I believe she has to submit it regularly via the school app (or something). 
Not sure if she can get online help from her teachers, but they know whether she is doing it, or not. Fortunately, my daughter is one who will make sure it's kept up to date. 
Not sure what 5 Yr old grandson will get from school, but daughter will be schooling him via whiteboard, reading and some youtube vids and apps.


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## fossyant (21 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> This is what worries me. I think going from my experience of kids around here, that it will just be treated like an extra holiday and they will all be out running around in groups as normal.



This was happening locally - big groups of teens out. They won't find it so funny when gran and grandad are dead.

We also had idiots out on a motocross bike tearing round the playing field behind us yesterday.


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## Venod (21 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Toilet rolls all gone in Waitrose by those allowed in the first hour whom I am sure definitely all needed them, not. Got a paper which surprised me as the Times normally has sold out by 9 but trying to spend another £8 was difficult, freezers were blizted and whisky's on offer were not that tempting.


At least you got some bum wipe material. Just needs a nail in the wall to hang it.


----------



## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Sad that many of those parents won't even think about home-educating... they'll want them out of the house.


"eres ten Bob, go out and play somewhere lad".


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## tom73 (21 Mar 2020)

last night Mrs 73 was telling me about the PPE for police and custody HCP's. 
Front line officers have hand gel which get's refilled from a central point back at the cop shop. 
All road side drug driving testing has stopped. The test strip has to go under your tongue. So not a good idea. 
(word of warning HCP testing inc talking blood for above is still going on so) Refuse it and you get changed with offence anyway plus failure to provide. 
Police are still taking DNA which is odd as that's a month swab. 
A PC was talking about this with the Custody Sergeant saying it sounds at odds. So Mrs 73 gave him a facemark so he had one for latter. 

Custody computers have been updated and Custody Sergeant will ask the key virus questions. If they say yes to any, a banner in red shows up across screen. Possible Coronavirus use PPE. 
I asked her what have they've got. She said nothing !

As for HPC's they have the stuff @Brompton Bruce showed. They also have what they have been told is contingency Kit. 
oh ok I was thinking so what's that I said. so she told me.
3x of the following 
Glasses , 3m facemask, Apron with sleeves. All in side one yellow plastic bag. 
They've been told to use them only if they get a confirmed case. Even if they tested everyone on the spot the result is not instant. So how they hell do they know.  I asked if with they get used is someone going to bring some more for that shift. No came the reply.

Yesterday Mrs 73 had to see 14 people one 4 times. They have no real up-to the minute clinical history other than what's on system one. They have to rely on them being honest with what Custody Sergeant ask's them.No idea who they have been mixing with or who they have ect, ect. They have to get up close to them. They only have normal gloves , a bit of plastic and a normal mask. They have no hand gel but have soap and hot water so not a bit issue. Though last night the soap dispenser went luckily she found a bottle in the cupboard that has a built in dispenser. After that go's I don't know what happens the about of times they wash hand normally is high enough. 

The number of different HCP's what see multiple people and the same ones in the same custody suit can be 2,3,4. Add in the other staff if they need assessment for mental health , or social issues ect can add another 4 to the list. Some custody suits hold up to 40 some even more. 
A few are also designated for the holding of any illegal immigrants that they may pick up. Until immigration arrive to take them. So no chance of knowing a history. (i'm not saying any of that to make any other point other than explaining the risks front-line are expected to deal with) 

Staff don't work the same suit every shift so move around. The other thing to add in the mix is if someone is taken to hospital due to a crash and is suspected of drink /drug driving. Is not fit to give a sample to a PC then the HCP get's sent to see the in A&E to take blood. The same ones who work in custody. They also see people at home eg every sudden child death bloods are taken from parents. 
Add in the police bringing people in over a shift and the Custody Sergeant having to sit close up to all of them each shift. Then many people maybe held for only a few hours. So then get replaced by others .... and so it go's on. Then you have the custody staff who are based in the suit. Then all these people once the shift ends go's home. 

If this is how police custody is having to deal with this than god help them once this arrives inside prisons. 

Mrs 73 has worked in many places and has to deal with very violent people inc real hard ball prisoners. Until yesterday I never really felt over worried what she may face. Now I'm terrified. At some point she will be redeployed to more frontline they are already looking at staff skills. Then I don't know what to think.


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## Rocky (21 Mar 2020)

@tom73 thank you for that. I’ve passed it on to my wife. Interesting and scary. Can you pass on my thanks to your wife for everything she’s doing? We owe a huge debt of gratitude to all our public servants.


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## tom73 (21 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> @tom73 thank you for that. I’ve passed it on to my wife. Interesting and scary. Can you pass on my thanks to your wife for everything she’s doing. We owe a huge debt of gratitude to all our public servants.


Of course I will


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## Mugshot (21 Mar 2020)

If you're a Big Issue buyer John Bird has asked that his sellers get off the street, he wants people to buy digitally instead.

https://www.bigissue.com/


----------



## Rezillo (21 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I really hope the S Korean chart can stop the doubters doubt what a massive testing, strict tracing and isolation policy can achieve. Actually for that matter, a note published by these folks points out some fundamental shortcomings in the Neil Ferguson model (yes the model that supposedly changed the UK/USA direction early this week). A highly astute note imho, with important observations on how stoppable this thing is.



That's an interesting article and yet another take on the situation that involves widespread testing and contact tracing. I don't really understand why UK testing is so restricted and can only speculate that there is lack of laboratory capacity or some other infrastructure reason.


----------



## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> That's an interesting article and yet another take on the situation that involves widespread testing and contact tracing. I don't really understand why UK testing is so restricted and can only speculate that there is lack of laboratory capacity or some other infrastructure reason.



12 PHE labs + contracted out. One the reasons that the media keep on taking UK 'average' numbers per day or quoting the total number to date is that it's extremely variable, sometimes the English bit of the UK does a lot of tests in a day, sometimes hardly any. It's clearly done in batches and a lot of driving around done.

The UK and Italy's testing is really weird. It started off about the same level and running parallel for a time. Then about ten days ago Italy started massively ramping it up. For how far behind Italy we are in virus progression, the UK was actually doing an all right number of tests in the early stages (and Italy pretty bad to be honest). This advantage has been wasted as it's not ramped up as it needs. If the stuff PHE had said was true we'd not be far behind Italy's testing regime until 3 days ago and places like London a week behind and testing regime for non-hotspots doing a lot better. 

The BBC's Click edition on bbc news has a lot of stuff on testing this week.


----------



## mjr (21 Mar 2020)

Shut Up Legs said:


> Is it possible for bums to audibly breathe a sigh of relief?


That ain't a sigh!

It's disappointing to hear of older people abusing the privilege of early opening by continuing to panic buy so there's none of certain items left for younger people, especially families of key workers. I expect the shops doing daily early opening will soon make it not daily.


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## Archie_tect (21 Mar 2020)

At least the 'entrepreneur' market smallholder at Fox Valley won't be buying up all Aldi's fruit and veg then selling it as fresh farm produce at marked up prices...


----------



## Stephenite (21 Mar 2020)

The kids have been home for two weeks now! We took them out of school a few days before the shutdown as one had a cold and the other the runs, and we had the opportunity.

The 9 year-old is schooled about four hours each day, and that has gone really well. Working one to one I can see what he needs to improve on and what, for him, is fun and easy. The teachers send the work the night before and we complete that and sometimes a little extra. Socially, he has online gaming.

The four year-old (nearly five) has been harder to manage though. There isn't a lot of quality online material for her age group. She is a little behind in language development, says the kindergarten, and she was scheduled for extra help. Keeping her brain active has been a challenge, and she is definitely missing the social interaction of the kindergarten. The poor thing also has a birthday next week.

This week has gone OK, but next week I'm back in work so my partner will be schooling/looking after the kids as well as working from home. We will see how it goes. I may have be at home at least one day.

Take care folks...


----------



## Mugshot (21 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://imgur.com/xQnrkrQ
> 
> 
> My sister last night
> ...




View: https://twitter.com/JOE_co_uk/status/1241292212446486529?s=20


----------



## Johnno260 (21 Mar 2020)

For NHS staff I found that.
The idiots who live streamed from the pub last night have all removed me from social media, while making threatening remarks after I called them out, I don’t care I would rather not associate with selfish 1/2 wits like that anyway.


----------



## Johnno260 (21 Mar 2020)

Stephenite said:


> The kids have been home for two weeks now! We took them out of school a few days before the shutdown as one had a cold and the other the runs, and we had the opportunity.
> 
> The 9 year-old is schooled about four hours each day, and that has gone really well. Working one to one I can see what he needs to improve on and what, for him, is fun and easy. The teachers send the work the night before and we complete that and sometimes a little extra. Socially, he has online gaming.
> 
> ...



some of these are useful for mine but eldest is younger have a look and see if they help.


----------



## Unkraut (21 Mar 2020)

Massive increase in number of infections here since yesterday (Baden-Württemberg nearly 1000 more now totalling over 3600) . I can see why they have imposed the clamp-down. At this rate of increase the healthcare system will reach maximum capacity in about 10 days' time. I hope it starts to slow down in the meantime, and that the existing measures and the new ones start to show some results as in South Korea, for example.


----------



## Stephenite (21 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> some of these are useful for mine but eldest is younger have a look and see if they help.


Thanks. I'll have a look later.


----------



## CanucksTraveller (21 Mar 2020)

It's futile asking British people to do anything isn't it, just driven through town and it's as rammed as any other Saturday, cafes and coffee shops heaving. I guess the NHS will inevitably be overwhelmed, and Boris's 12 week turnaround will turn out to be optimistic.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (21 Mar 2020)




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## Smudge (21 Mar 2020)

I think many young people are not caring so much about this virus, as its mostly older people that will die from it. There's also the fact that many young people blame older people for the environmental state of the planet. They also blame them for having it easier financially when they were younger, certainly for house buying. And now that there is a large ageing population, its younger people having to pay for their care through taxes etc.
This, rightly or wrongly, has gone some way to create animosity in how many young people view older people. So there will be those young people that believe that this pandemic won't be dangerous to them, and they selfishly don't care that much about social distancing or the implications of ignoring it.
But young people have been dying from it, some even as young as in their 20's. But its a tiny number compared to older people. There's also the fact that they are not taking seriously the implications of society falling apart and how far this may go.


----------



## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> For NHS staff I found that.
> The idiots who live streamed from the pub last night have all removed me from social media, while making threatening remarks after I called them out, I don’t care I would rather not associate with selfish 1/2 wits like that anyway.



Browsing hours are a spectacularly misguided idea. I hope that is goes all right. 

I'm a bit curious about Dave's idea because a lot of councils have loading bans in the early hours of Sunday morning which need temporarily lifting, if this is happening could just ask the government to extend 6 hour sunday trading restrictions to 7 hours.


----------



## DCLane (21 Mar 2020)

My wife, who's an NHS Dietitian, has been busy the past week helping produce a Covid-19 guide for the older person along with associated media: https://www.bda.uk.com/resource/covid-19-corona-virus-advice-for-the-general-public.html






She's been called more into front-line activity a she's specialised in the elderly and tube feeds along with mental health. Currently working across stroke / neurology / mental health and expects it to get busier. Unfortunately the new NHS shop-priority times of 8-9am Mon/Wed/Fri are useless as she's at work by 7am currently.

This morning we turned the guest room into a schoolroom for my 15yo. Classes have gone online from his school and he's expected to log in from 9am. I've also got work for him: we've got a smart trainer for the new temporary PE fitness suite (dining room) plus outdoor games activities (vegetable planting and chickens to get).


----------



## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> My wife, who's an NHS Dietitian, has been busy the past week helping produce a Covid-19 guide for the older person along with associated media: https://www.bda.uk.com/resource/covid-19-corona-virus-advice-for-the-general-public.html
> 
> 
> She's been called more into front-line activity a she's specialised in the elderly and tube feeds along with mental health. Currently working across stroke / neurology / mental health and expects it to get busier. Unfortunately the new NHS shop-priority times of 8-9am Mon/Wed/Fri are useless as she's at work by 7am currently.



5 seems regrettably quite optimistic and quite a challenge. Social prescribing isn't very advanced in this country and varies wildly by area. Signposting is not something these services excell at, partly because there isn't that much normally and the last week a lot of stuff has been pulled. New stuff is also going to be a challenge to communicate/find out about.


----------



## Johnno260 (21 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Browsing hours are a spectacularly misguided idea. I hope that is goes all right.
> 
> I'm a bit curious about Dave's idea because a lot of councils have loading bans in the early hours of Sunday morning which need temporarily lifting, if this is happening could just ask the government to extend 6 hour sunday trading restrictions to 7 hours.



my understanding is you can load your trolly but not pay until official opening.
I could be wrong.


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## tom73 (21 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> View: https://twitter.com/JOE_co_uk/status/1241292212446486529?s=20




Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr FFS 
The only thing that saved my computer from going out the window is use Apple and no way are they worth one.


----------



## Buck (21 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> my understanding is you can load your trolly but not pay until official opening.
> I could be wrong.



No, you are spot on. Goods can be selected at any time but no sales are permitted outside of the 6 hour window.


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## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> my understanding is you can load your trolly but not pay until official opening.
> I could be wrong.



Yes, it's a legally grey area that supermarkets that are complete dumbasses have used for years and generally shy away from without putting things in place and limiting to shorter time periods. The supermarket I used to work in did it unregulated. That's why I know it's a spectacularly stupid idea. It is. They only did it for half an hour and it got banned by one store manager as it caused so many problems.

It leads to bad temperedness, it leads to huge queues, trolley fights, aggression, daft goings on in the car parks, it interferes with stocking up, it's often before shop floor or checkout staff arrive which leads to queries that often can't be answered.

I also have my doubts about what NHS ID will be accepted. A lot of pharmacy staff have smart cards despite being nothing to do with the NHS so you may get community pharmacists and all and sundry sneaking in.

Drastic Dave's misguided. He doesn't have to deal with it, it'll be the staff. He needs to get onto Boris and Rishi and ask for restrictions on deliveries and an hour's extra opening. Extra hour opening and put things in place, it might work. Browsing idea. Very bad idea indeed.


----------



## Mo1959 (21 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> I think many young people are not caring so much about this virus, as its mostly older people that will die from it. There's also the fact that many young people blame older people for the environmental state of the planet. They also blame them for having it easier financially when they were younger, certainly for house buying. And now that there is a large ageing population, its younger people having to pay for their care through taxes etc.
> This, rightly or wrongly, has gone some way to create animosity in how many young people view older people. So there will be those young people that believe that this pandemic won't be dangerous to them, and they selfishly don't care that much about social distancing or the implications of ignoring it.
> But young people have been dying from it, some even as young as in their 20's. But its a tiny number compared to older people. There's also the fact that they are not taking seriously the implications of society falling apart and how far this may go.


They also forget it was people my age and older that scrimped by while paying mortgages in double figure interest rates and did without other things. They didn’t want a new tv or any other gadget each time a new one came out, or wanted to jump in a plane once or twice a year for a holiday. I am sick of the older generation being maligned and everything having to revolve around youngsters now. I presume they realise they will get old too!


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## Buck (21 Mar 2020)

@marinyork - browsing isn't a bad idea or indeed a very bad idea. It allows people to do there shopping. The only difference is that they cannot go through the checkout/POS until the stores official opening time.

Whilst we are in unchartered waters and people have shown their true colours these last few days, I still don't feel that this will be the car-crash you paint. The challenge will be having the stock on the shelves for them all to purchase.


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## tom73 (21 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> my understanding is you can load your trolly but not pay until official opening.
> I could be wrong.



Yes that's how it works it's the same as when shops on Sundays have open for "browsing" from 9. So the real time time is still within the set hours. The till won't let anyone though them until 10.


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## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> @marinyork - browsing isn't a bad idea or indeed a very bad idea. It allows people to do there shopping. The only difference is that they cannot go through the checkout/POS until the stores official opening time.
> 
> Whilst we are in unchartered waters and people have shown their true colours these last few days, I still don't feel that this will be the car-crash you paint. The challenge will be having the stock on the shelves for them all to purchase.



I know perfectly well what browsing is. I worked in a store that implemented it on a Sunday. You know this so I would appreciate it if you didn't misrepresent what I wrote.

The whole point of browsing is that it's a pretence. People cannot go through the checkout until the official opening time, they get bored, they argue, they harass staff and start shouting. You aren't supposed to seek help or 'serve' people before the official opening time. Guess what, as soon as people are in store they don't pay any attention to this, they make a beeline for GM cabinets and start shouting and staff saying I want to see that iphone or cable. Why you choose not to see this I have no idea. Browsing problems can be mitigated with higher staffing numbers and a very firm line and security. These aren't normal times. 

Browsing hours also interfere with stocking the shelves. Staffing levels even when opening on a Sunday are run insanely low on things like fresh, grocery and dry goods. You don't want any extra people in the shop.


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## MontyVeda (21 Mar 2020)

It's certainly a lot harder to restock my shop once it's open... even before all this happened. Thankfully we start a lot earlier than opening time so can get 70% of it on the shelves before 8am. The rest is taking about four times longer though; can't move for trollies!


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## Buck (21 Mar 2020)

No misrepresentation from me. 

I know what exactly you mean, having spent 23 years in food retail (albeit some of that was pre-Sunday trading) I’m well aware of some people’s less than commendable behaviours at times. 

From replenishment perspective the main challenge will be the fresh deliveries as these often didn’t arrive I store until 7-8am on a Sunday. Perhaps a relaxing of opening hours would help but there’s still the logistics getting the stock into the stores let alone the replenishment.


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## tom73 (21 Mar 2020)

This may help anyone with young kids trying to explain this whole thing to them. 

https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/4019...irus? A Story Book Explainer for Children.pdf

UNICEF also have this 8 tips on how to tell children 
https://www.unicef.org.au/blog/news...ow-to-talk-to-your-children-about-coronavirus


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## Proto (21 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Unfortunate phrasing!


Indeed, poor choice of words. One of my daughters students stepped off Clifton Suspension bridge this week. A young man. Heartbreaking.


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## Smudge (21 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> They also forget it was people my age and older that scrimped by while paying mortgages in double figure interest rates and did without other things. They didn’t want a new tv or any other gadget each time a new one came out, or wanted to jump in a plane once or twice a year for a holiday. I am sick of the older generation being maligned and everything having to revolve around youngsters now. I presume they realise they will get old too!



Indeed, but they will only see it from their point of view.
At 17 i was living in a bedsit and would eek out my low wages by only living on Marmite sandwiches, had no tv and most of the time I couldn't afford to go out socialising. Not many young uns would do that now.
I wont go on, for fear of sounding like a Monty Python sketch.


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## Dave Davenport (21 Mar 2020)

Just spoke to my next door neighbour, she works for Ageas insurance. Say's she could easily work from home and has done in the past but they've been told they've all got to continue going into the office, judging by the size of they're office complex that's got to be a few hundred people.


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## Dave7 (21 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Owners of limited companies avoiding tax don't need support... this is how the haves make sure they keep the money flowing in, even at times of desperation and national emergency. It's an unintended consequence of knee-jerk politics.


Archie. Unless you have run a company you really shouldnt make such comments.
I ran a small limited company for some years. I had all the stress of keeping 5 lads employed and paid. I had companies rip me off for £10k, £20k and £35 grand but had to keep going. No government help for me.
2 sides to (almost) everything


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## Dave7 (21 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> That ain't a sigh!
> 
> It's disappointing to hear of older people abusing the privilege of early opening by continuing to panic buy so there's none of certain items left for younger people, especially families of key workers. I expect the shops doing daily early opening will soon make it not daily.


Fully agree. I am one of those 'older people' but have not used that early shop.
However, if an older person goes in early and is told they can buy 4 of each what are they going to do ?? Especially if they have children/grandchildren


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## Fab Foodie (21 Mar 2020)

Switching gears, does anyone have info on CV19 in Russia’s sphere of influence? Not heard anything on the main media outlets....


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## Dave7 (21 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> Indeed, poor choice of words. One of my daughters students stepped off Clifton Suspension bridge this week. A young man. Heartbreaking.


Very sad that. God only knows what state his mind was in.
He may be out of his worries now but his family will never get over it. (Personal experience here).


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## Johnno260 (21 Mar 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> Just spoke to my next door neighbour, she works for Ageas insurance. Say's she could easily work from home and has done in the past but they've been told they've all got to continue going into the office, judging by the size of they're office complex that's got to be a few hundred people.



my work is the same home or office makes zero difference, I told HR my wife is key worker and they didn’t care either.
I’m lucky though 4 including me, and no hot desking.


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## deptfordmarmoset (21 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Switching gears, does anyone have info on CV19 in Russia’s sphere of influence? Not heard anything on the main media outlets....


I've only got the worldofmeters figures (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) but it looks like they've figured out that if they look the other way it'll go away. Only 1 death reported and 2 cases per million. Frankly unbelieveable.


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## Smudge (21 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Fully agree. I am one of those 'older people' but have not used that early shop.
> However, *if an older person goes in early and is told they can buy 4 of each what are they going to do ??* Especially if they have children/grandchildren



Buy more Werther's Originals.


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I've only got the worldofmeters figures (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) but it looks like they've figured out that if they look the other way it'll go away. Only 1 death reported and 2 cases per million. Frankly unbelieveable.


As unbelievable as the guff being promoted on social media platforms by the nice people at the IRA run by Putins restaurant owning friend. 5G/American bio-weapon, elite cabal, etc. 
The European agency tasked with monitoring and responding to such attacks (the one that oik Farage and his chums voted against being beefed up) has concerns over 2 million tweets in the last 3 weeks.
The tech companies told them to be careful with their interpretation of the data they handed them but acknowledged that many of the accounts used had in the past been used to vector anti-vax, pro Trump and other socially divisive issues. 
East StratCom say that some of the trolling is for domestic consumption but there are English language posts aimed at European and US social media users. 
Kicking your opponents when they are down is a handy way of getting a leg up. 
For anyone who doubts the influence this onslaught of cr*p has on people, think again.


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## Cycleops (21 Mar 2020)

Bike shops have declare themselves "essential' in the US. I wonder if they are classed as such in the UK?:
https://www.bicycling.com/culture/a31820534/bike-shops-essential-coronavirus-shutdowns/


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Switching gears, does anyone have info on CV19 in Russia’s sphere of influence? Not heard anything on the main media outlets....


Russian journalists and commentators asked about the scale of covid19 in Russia and how they expect the prodigious propaganda machine to respond both inside and outside of Russia. You may conclude that the Russian people are being kept in the dark. 
"I _am currently living in the USA, and acquaintances from Russia are asking me what the situation is like over here. People can’t believe that there is also an epidemic here when experts on Russian talk shows have told them that the virus has been developed in a secret US laboratory and dumped on China and Europe"_
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/the-information-boomerang-returns/
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-cases/


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## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

No levelling off of deaths in Italy. It's now so bad that peeps are just quoting by region now. Lombardia, 546 deaths today. 3251 new cases there. 

That doesn't even include Emilia-Romagnia, Veneto, Piemonte, Marche or many other areas.


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## Smudge (21 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> _ experts on Russian talk shows have told them that the virus has been developed in a secret US laboratory and dumped on China and Europe"_
> https://euvsdisinfo.eu/the-information-boomerang-returns/
> https://euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-cases/



There are many talk shows and documentaries in Russia, that trot out barmy conspiracy theories like that about all sorts of things about the west. Except they aren't put as conspiracy theories, they are put as factual, with all sorts of ludicrous so called proof.
Putin and his minions would be hilariously funny, if he wasn't so dangerous.


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## nickyboy (21 Mar 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> It's futile asking British people to do anything isn't it, just driven through town and it's as rammed as any other Saturday, cafes and coffee shops heaving. I guess the NHS will inevitably be overwhelmed, and Boris's 12 week turnaround will turn out to be optimistic.


I'm very surprised by this. I've just completed a longish bike ride and went through a dozen villages, towns. Without exception every cafe, restaurant and pub was closed. Traffic was less than a Sunday and several villages were eerily quiet without a single soul out and about

Cafes that are staying open need reporting


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## geocycle (21 Mar 2020)

Yes, all cafes shut here and many chain shops. Bought some fresh stuff and Spent rest of day at home. Might get out on bike first thing. Surprised to hear other places ignoring the instructions. Full sympathy with businesses of course.


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## MarkF (21 Mar 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> It's futile asking British people to do anything isn't it, just driven through town and it's as rammed as any other Saturday, cafes and coffee shops heaving. I guess the NHS will inevitably be overwhelmed, and Boris's 12 week turnaround will turn out to be optimistic.



I cycled along the canal and into Leeds to buy some flowers, it was pretty much dead apart from the market. Leeds is usually party central on a weekend and rammed from noon.


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## ozboz (21 Mar 2020)

Just been in Sainsbury’s Richmond u Thames, all settled down a bit , quite a lot of goods still on shelves though needless to say the beer and wine had took a real hit !! .


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## PK99 (21 Mar 2020)

My local tesco at 6am saturday (drone image)


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## ozboz (21 Mar 2020)

^^^^^^^. FFS !! How mad is that !


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## Fab Foodie (21 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> I cycled along the canal and into Leeds to buy some flowers, it was pretty much dead apart from the market. Leeds is usually party central on a weekend and rammed from noon.


You old romantic


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## fossyant (21 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> ^^^^^^^. FFS !! How mad is that !



Mad


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## tom73 (21 Mar 2020)

Meanwhile down by the seaside 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-engla...ws/england&link_location=live-reporting-story
I'm now behold anger this is now way behold a joke. 
war time spirit of pulling together to help each other is fine. The one about just carry on we will not be beaten is pointless. The threat this time can't see them and won't care. Meanwhile they are sure helping it live on.


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## roubaixtuesday (21 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Meanwhile down by the seaside
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-engla...ws/england&link_location=live-reporting-story
> I'm now behold anger this is now way behold a joke.
> war time spirit of pulling together to help each other is fine. The one about just carry on we will not be beaten is pointless. The threat this time can't see them and won't care. Meanwhile they are sure helping it live on.



We'll end up banned from cycling soon thanks to that lot.


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## ozboz (21 Mar 2020)

With the amount of big rolls being carted out of the stores , ie there an outbreak of Dysentery as well ?


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## fossyant (21 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Meanwhile down by the seaside
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-engla...ws/england&link_location=live-reporting-story
> I'm now behold anger this is now way behold a joke.
> war time spirit of pulling together to help each other is fine. The one about just carry on we will not be beaten is pointless. The threat this time can't see them and won't care. Meanwhile they are sure helping it live on.



That's madness. Our site in N. Wales is quiet and we're down to close the van, having only opened it last week. There is stuff you need to do, like remove anything from the fridge freezer, shut off gas/water etc. Very quiet on the roads, very few folk out of their vans.


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## ozboz (21 Mar 2020)

If you haven’t watched the Sky News report from Italy , I would suggest even implore you to do so , 
Keep safe all


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## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> View attachment 509475
> 
> 
> What the Italian chart tells me, is that while Lombardia is leveling off now some 10 days after the 9th March national lockdown, growth remains significant in the neighbouring regions. I suspect @marinyork will be able to read more/better from the chart than I can.
> ...



I'm not sure there was a levelling off. Midweek there was a what seems a blip on one day. 793 deaths today. Unfortunately.

The figures for Lombardy just don't look that good to me. We don't really know how many people in the region of 10 million people have the virus. What we know is 25,000 people have tested positive. How many have the virus? 100,000, 300,000, 500,000, it's gone wildly out of control, maybe even a million? Some of the stuff in Codogno and Vo' about those without symptoms and unaware suggest figures may be very large. Italians don't like to talk of death at all, many are superstitious about it or think it's a very offensive topic. The army convoy driving coffins out of Bergamo which several on here have seen demonstrates the depth of severity. Depending on which of those wildly different numbers of people have the virus and what affect lockdowns 1 through to 3 had on other areas of Lombardy you could be talking very large numbers of people dying in the region. If ten million people are at home and live with others even with only 3% transmission 30,000+ could still be catching it within the last 2 weeks. Some live alone, the numbers come down. Still bad. Are people who have the virus turning up at hospital yet (well we say turn up, we know they aren't allowed in unless sick enough)? How do the models come into it? What if it's over 12 weeks? Did schools closing early in Italy have a negative effect on the numbers as hypothesised in other countries?

On 1st March a good chunk of the areas were in quarantine and this is the worrying bit. On 4th March all schools and unis were closed. on 8th much of the north was locked down. on 11th nationally. Although area quarantined on 22nd February Codogno and Vo' are claiming success stories. It's hard to assess when this will end because some people believe schools wasn't effective and the earlier lockdowns weren't adhered to (which sadly some of the figures suggests too). A horrid mini cluster in Emilia-Romagna which has been completely sealed off for a week.

The chart you showed does show, as has been the case for a couple of days worrying signs in Liguria in particular. This is nearby other badly affected regions/provinces, but was locked down later. Some are worried about Lazio, Campagnia and Puglia. Puglia and a lot of areas are getting numbers that the Pies and other places were getting around 11th/12th March. Were the infection rates pre-quarantine or is Puglia going to start stacking up similar numbers in the next couple of weeks? Or other areas. The south of the country doesn't have the resources to deal with the outbreak. It's those areas and how they change in the next two weeks that are probably more informative to the outside world than Lombardy.


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## tom73 (21 Mar 2020)

Now selling stuff for a massive price is one thing. But risking life to make money that’s quite another. 
Crime at it’s lowest 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-51991245


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## vickster (21 Mar 2020)

What a daffodil...remanded until 20 April...hopefully he'll have to wait on remand for a few years waiting for a court date


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## PK99 (21 Mar 2020)

link to statutory instrument requiring closure of pubs, restaurants etc. It came into force when made, at 2 pm today. 


http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/...8tkGhak8zTfpg57qIqzBu5Kn2ufya-5l6yEDt8tjIWGnk


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now selling stuff for a massive price is one thing. But risking life to make money that’s quite another.
> Crime at it’s lowest
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-51991245


Makes Alex Jones snake oil potions look like honest toil. I should resist the temptation to suggest the man in that story be given a community sentence helping with burials but I won't.


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## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

Shopped tonight. Shop in pretty good nick. Workers done a good job. Avoided the scrum at 7am 8am and so on. Actual milk in the shop again. Soap.


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## Smudge (21 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now selling stuff for a massive price is one thing. But risking life to make money that’s quite another.
> Crime at it’s lowest
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-51991245





vickster said:


> What a daffodil...remanded until 20 April...hopefully he'll have to wait on remand for a few years waiting for a court date



Seeing as he's been remanded, he may get exposed to the Coronavirus in prison. I reckon its going to go around like wildfire in there.
I've already read reports prisoners aren't reporting any symptoms they get, for fear of being isolated in their cells.


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

This theme cropped up in the comments sections of newspapers and elsewhere . 
"Surely people need to know if someone living in their area has coronavirus"? 
Armed with that knowledge what is it that these people would do that they should already be doing anyway?


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## perplexed (21 Mar 2020)

Any of our France-based correspondents seen anything of this?

Edit to add: if true, could be an indicator for increased domestic restrictions similar to Italy/France/Spain?


View: https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1241477088558940166?s=20


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

marinyork
[QUOTE="Smudge said:


> Seeing as he's been remanded, he may get exposed to the Coronavirus in prison. I reckon its going to go around like wildfire in there.
> I've already read reports prisoners aren't reporting any symptoms they get, for fear of being isolated in their cells.


Grim to think of it. There was some unrest in Italian prisons after restrictions on visiting. 
How will the illegal drugs be smuggled in if visiting is limited? I have visited prisons and my experience was of a canteen setting with tables arranged about 8 foot apart. No screens or segregation.


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## Adam4868 (21 Mar 2020)

Pretty normal Saturday round here,shops open.People out and about.
Full lockdown next week looking more likely I think.Im not convinced people will and are staying indoors and self isolating.


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## Smudge (21 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Grim to think of it. There was some unrest in Italian prisons after restrictions on visiting.
> How will the illegal drugs be smuggled in if visiting is limited? I have visited prisons and my experience was of a canteen setting with tables arranged about 8 foot apart. No screens or segregation.



I guess it would have an impact on drugs coming in through visits, but obviously not the only way drugs get in. They'll always get smuggled in somehow.


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## tom73 (21 Mar 2020)

This is going the rounds be good if it gets plenty of support. It’s not a lot to ask


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## Pale Rider (21 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> That's madness. Our site in N. Wales is quiet and we're down to close the van, having only opened it last week. There is stuff you need to do, like remove anything from the fridge freezer, shut off gas/water etc. Very quiet on the roads, very few folk out of their vans.


Have you decided to close the van @fossyant or have the owners closed site?

I haven't opened mine yet because I can't decide if I ought to be using it or not.

An email - before last Friday - from the owners of my site said they are closed to tourers, but still open to owners of statics.

The on site pub/restaurant must now be shut, but I didn't use that much anyway.


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## mjr (21 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> "Surely people need to know if someone living in their area has coronavirus"?
> Armed with that knowledge what is it that these people would do that they should already be doing anyway?


It's more that they want to do something they should not do, I fear. Coronavirus lynchings ahoy


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## mjr (21 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> This is going the rounds be good if it gets plenty of support. It’s not a lot to ask
> 
> 
> View attachment 509617


Domain name typo in that one. Updated one on www.clapForOurCarers.co.uk


----------



## perplexed (21 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Pretty normal Saturday round here,shops open.People out and about.
> Full lockdown next week looking more likely I think.Im not convinced people will and are staying indoors and self isolating.



I gather from others (don't know, because we're staying out of the way) that Sheffield city centre was quite a bit quieter than normal - I've seen a couple of photos which suggest this could be the case, but of course it defeats the object of the exercise if people just congregate elsewhere. 

I suspect the controls will get tighter this coming week, but it's only my guess.


----------



## alicat (21 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Pretty normal Saturday round here,shops open.People out and about.
> Full lockdown next week looking more likely I think.Im not convinced people will and are staying indoors and self isolating.



It was like that at my local Morrisons. School's out atmosphere and totally impossible to keep a metre away from other people.


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> It's more that they want to do something they should not do, I fear. Coronavirus lynchings ahoy


Ah yes, I did wonder. The Daily Express created paedofinder general lives on.


----------



## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> I gather from others (don't know, because we're staying out of the way) that Sheffield city centre was quite a bit quieter than normal - I've seen a couple of photos which suggest this could be the case, but of course it defeats the object of the exercise if people just congregate elsewhere.
> 
> I suspect the controls will get tighter this coming week, but it's only my guess.



Variable. When I went out tonight there was a lot of traffic on the road, more than normal.

Heard reports from friends that live in bits of town looking out of their houses that places were very busy. A lot of intra-family interactions.


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## Adam4868 (21 Mar 2020)

Ive suddenly found out how sh1t Saturday night tv is !


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## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> This theme cropped up in the comments sections of newspapers and elsewhere .
> "Surely people need to know if someone living in their area has coronavirus"?
> Armed with that knowledge what is it that these people would do that they should already be doing anyway?



It will be a big problem for society. No official record system to demonstrate you have had the virus and prove it. There will be people who've had it who can't prove, people who think they've had it and have and can't, those that think they've had the virus and haven't and those that think they haven't but have. There'll be the odd very rare person immune (most people have none whatsoever).


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> I gather from others (don't know, because we're staying out of the way) that Sheffield city centre was quite a bit quieter than normal - I've seen a couple of photos which suggest this could be the case, but of course it defeats the object of the exercise if people just congregate elsewhere.
> 
> I suspect the controls will get tighter this coming week, but it's only my guess.


I think you suspect correctly and that your guess may prove to be correct. 
It's day 5 here and I am witness to surreal stories of social distancing. The fewer stories to relate, the better for all.


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## Pale Rider (21 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> We'll end up banned from cycling soon thanks to that lot.



That could happen if there is continuing non-compliance.

My view is time will be given for Friday's restrictions to settle in, but only a little time.

In other words, this weekend may be written off by the authorities from a compliance point of view, but they will expect much better compliance by next weekend.

Visiting holiday areas seems to be becoming an issue which can only be amplified by the clocks going forward and the coming of the better weather.

Assuming full compliance is achieved within a week or so, such visits will become less attractive due to the official closure of cafes, pubs, and restaurants, added to some existing unofficial closures of visitor attractions.

I can't decide if I should be using my static caravan in the Yorkshire Dales or not.

But travelling to it is as much against the restrictions as heading to the seaside.

Just because there's only one of me, and I don't wander about in public with my shirt off carrying a can of lager doesn't make my visit any more socially responsible.


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## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I think you suspect correctly and that your guess may prove to be correct.
> It's day 5 here and I am witness to surreal stories of social distancing. The fewer stories to relate, the better for all.



I think in the UK people will start staying indoors when the London deathtoll goes to a couple of hundred and tested cases start jumping elsewhere.


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> Any of our France-based correspondents seen anything of this?
> 
> Edit to add: if true, could be an indicator for increased domestic restrictions similar to Italy/France/Spain?
> 
> ...



That is pretty much what he is saying. I think most intra European borders will be closed by next Friday. 
This list will grow in length. 
https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/w...sas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en


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## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> But travelling to it is as much against the restrictions as heading to the seaside.
> 
> Just because there's only one of me, and I don't wander about in public with my shirt off carrying a can of lager doesn't make my visit any more socially responsible.



The current social distancing stuff isn't detailed enough really. What was released now realistically needed to be released a week and a half ago.

The "unnecessary travel" one is that one that's always going to be widely interpreted. It means (not to you) that someone can travel and then everyone else can't! When I was talking about an event with other people two said no it can't go ahead as the risk is from public transport and not the event and it's "unnecessary travel". Fine but then they went about their lives normally for the next three days . Other that said the event couldn't go ahead have then been seen on social media doing all sorts of things this weekend .

Some of the Deputy Chief Medical Officer's comments on families could have been clearer.


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Just because there's only one of me, and I don't wander about in public with my shirt off carrying a can of lager doesn't make my visit any more socially responsible.


Spot on I say.


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I can't decide if I should be using my static caravan in the Yorkshire


If you are going to stay put there, yes,for sure. Not for a visit though. You know that and are wondering where best to pitch up for a while?


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## glasgowcyclist (21 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I can't decide if I should be using my static caravan in the Yorkshire Dales or not.
> 
> But travelling to it is as much against the restrictions as heading to the seaside.



I can fully understand your temptation to go. I had a similar choice to spend next week in the Highlands but have decided against it. I *might* do no harm in going but there’s less risk if I stay put per the government advice. 

There are about 8 cases in Highland, 110 in Greater Glasgow so I don’t want to chance making their situation worse.

My journey is not essential and I will have the opportunity again.


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## glasgowcyclist (21 Mar 2020)

As expected, things are getting still worse in Italy.

From the BBC:

The Italian region of Lombardy has introduced stricter measures in a bid to tackle the spread of coronavirus. 

Under the new rules announced late on Saturday, sport and physical activity outside, even individually, is banned. Using vending machines is forbidden. 

The move comes as Italy reported nearly 800 coronavirus deaths on Saturday and saw its toll for the past month reach 4,825, the highest in the world.

Lombardy is the worst-affected region in the country with 3,095 deaths. 

The region's President Attilio Fontana announced the new measures in a statement. 

Businesses have been asked to close all operations excluding "essential" supply chains. Work on building sites will be stopped apart from those working on hospitals, roads and railways. 

All open-air weekly markets have been suspended. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51991972


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## Pale Rider (21 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The "unnecessary travel" one is that one that's always going to be widely interpreted.



That is certainly true, but I may as well try.

Seems to me very, very, few journeys could properly be described as necessary.

The only two I can immediately think of is going to work if you cannot work by other means, and going out for the essentials of living such as getting food or attending a medical appointment, if that cannot be done by other means.


randynewmanscat said:


> If you are going to stay put there, yes,for sure. Not for a visit though. You know that and are wondering where best to pitch up for a while?



Not sure I grasp your question, the caravan is a static so cannot be moved.


glasgowcyclist said:


> I can fully understand your temptation to go. I had a similar choice to spend next week in the Highlands but have decided against it. I *might* do no harm in going but there’s less risk if I stay put per the government advice.
> 
> There are about 8 cases in Highland, 110 in Greater Glasgow so I don’t want to chance making their situation worse.
> 
> My journey is not essential and I will have the opportunity again.



I have to agree with this, which means my decision with the static should be the same.

Being honest, I've only been considering it so much in an effort to find a way of producing the result I want - I can go.


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## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Businesses have been asked to close all operations excluding "essential" supply chains. Work on building sites will be stopped apart from those working on hospitals, roads and railways.
> 
> All open-air weekly markets have been suspended.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51991972



That's actually nuts. It's looking like a lot more businesses and offices have stayed open than what people have overtly let on . I'd say typical Italy, but it ain't funny in the slightest. 

Ah well, so much for three lockdowns and 2 sets of robust measures. Or perhaps it's the testing regime's fault. I don't really know any more.


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

Stephen Powis medical director NHS England on the news. "you follow the advice you are saving somebody's life".


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## randynewmanscat (21 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Not sure I grasp your question, the caravan is a static so cannot be moved.


 Old person terminology getting in the way, by pitch up I mean choose to stay after you are under movement restrictions. I thought you might be mulling over which place to stay for the duration. 
If you are considering a visit and return, no, don't.


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## Pale Rider (21 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> If you are considering a visit and return, no, don't.



Ah, with it now.

Your conclusion is the correct one, but of course, it's not the one I want to hear.


----------



## tom73 (21 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> Seeing as he's been remanded, he may get exposed to the Coronavirus in prison. I reckon its going to go around like wildfire in there.
> I've already read reports prisoners aren't reporting any symptoms they get, for fear of being isolated in their cells.



Not hearing anything at the moment though one prison has had an officer test positive. Health care staff are not stupid and they will soon spot anyone swinging the lead. The big question is how to isolate possible large numbers. Seg can only take so many and you can’t move them out some need to be in there. For safety 
Most cells are over crowded so single cell‘s are not easy to come by. Hardly any of the prison estate have what you can call “hospital wings” I know HMP Hull has one. 
Isolating infectious out breaks is possible Mrs 73 had to manage a TB out break in the past. But it’s the numbers together with an ageing prison population and other health risk factors eg high numbers of COPD is common that’s the big issue. Just as a side note your classed as old in prison as 55 or over.

It may get to the point of shutting down and isolating whole wings. But that‘s not easy and will tie up staff.
The other issue is most are on short term sentence so may get infected not knowing and then come out. Hence why this is everyone problem and not a case of sod them just lock them down.

Add in all the other health , mental health stuff staff are dealing with it’s just going to end up one big mess. Just as on the outside the ones who will suffer most are the most vulnerable.

We then have filling gaps as staff get ill. Staff numbers are piss poor as it is. Will not be simple fix given the checks you need. 

Critically ill cases can’t be kept inside and will need to the shipped out. Even having high numbers on oxygen will be impossible even though prisoners can routinely be put on oxygen. The numbers will make it impossible to manage safely. 



randynewmanscat said:


> Grim to think of it. There was some unrest in Italian prisons after restrictions on visiting.
> How will the illegal drugs be smuggled in if visiting is limited? I have visited prisons and my experience was of a canteen setting with tables arranged about 8 foot apart. No screens or segregation.


large scale unrest is possible but unlikely. It’s possible to lock down whole wings and the drill is well tested. The the prison service have a National response they send in the tornado team. Who are highly trained and don’t mess about. Mrs 73 seen them in action health care follow them once they gain control.
Eating is mostly done on the wings or in the cells now dining halls have gone. 


Smudge said:


> I guess it would have an impact on drugs coming in through visits, but obviously not the only way drugs get in. They'll always get smuggled in somehow.


Stopping visits so stopping drugs won’t be why most will get upset about. Many live for visits so stopping is a big deal. Drug getting in via visits are falling more are getting found doing it. 

“They'll always get smuggled in somehow” yes that‘s your “stuffers and packers“ (let you work out which is which)
They get found quickly too on the whole via the boss chair as it gets called. Overall drug numbers are not great. But the prisons using new measures have seen big improvements. These measures are being rolled out be it slowly.

The public health threat to everyone if this gets a grip in prisons will be big. It’s not impossible to have 1000 plus people infected living round the corner from you In one go.


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## marinyork (21 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> The public health threat to everyone if this gets a grip in prisons will be big. It’s not impossible to have 1000 plus people infected living round the corner from you In one go.



A very lengthy post, but I find it interesting there's not comment about what's happened in prisons in Iran or other countries.


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## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Ah, with it now.
> 
> Your conclusion is the correct one, but of course, it's not the one I want to hear.


Indeed it's not the one, it's obvious you know what the right choice is though. 👍


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (22 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think in the UK people will start staying indoors when the London deathtoll goes to a couple of hundred and tested cases start jumping elsewhere.



Or instead of hiding the panic, PPE/ventilator/ICU shortages and fire-fighting going on right now in London hospitals, they are broadcast for all to see. Nurses in Northwick Park, the hospital that went critical two days ago, are wearing bin bags to protect themselves.

The chart below is enough to send a chill down my spine. This is ft's update of their fatalities chart, but previously no markers were placed where and when nationwide lockdowns were implemented, now they are with a star. See when China applied their draconian measures and how long it took their number to tail off? Then consider our measures - we have a looong way to go.

Think someone once said Boris is incapable of telling people what they don't want to hear - that he will always put a gloss on every turd he owns, and which he can't resist to sell. That is definitely not what we need right now.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (22 Mar 2020)




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## Shut Up Legs (22 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Or instead of hiding the panic, PPE/ventilator/ICU shortages and fire-fighting going on right now in London hospitals, they are broadcast for all to see. Nurses in Northwick Park, the hospital that went critical two days ago, are wearing bin bags to protect themselves.
> 
> The chart below is enough to send a chill down my spine. This is ft's update of their fatalities chart, but previously no markers were placed where and when nationwide lockdowns were implemented, now they are with a star. See when China applied their draconian measures and how long it took their number to tail off? Then consider our measures - we have a looong way to go.
> 
> ...


Japan must be doing something right: it has double Italy's population in a smaller area, and the largest elderly population proportion in the world (italy is only 2nd place in this particular ranking). Despite this, Japan's death rate seems a lot lower than Italy's.


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## ozboz (22 Mar 2020)

Shut Up Legs said:


> Japan must be doing something right: it has double Italy's population in a smaller area, and the largest elderly population proportion in the world (italy is only 2nd place in this particular ranking). Despite this, Japan's death rate seems a lot lower than Italy's.


Possibly because the Japanese are more inclined to heed the advice that they are given ,
Keep Safe ,


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## DCLane (22 Mar 2020)

I'm convinced now we're heading for some form of lock-down, particularly in London with other movements curtailed elsewhere.

This may be the last weekend out on the bike for some time. And I don't mean 12 weeks - probably a lot longer.


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## Johnno260 (22 Mar 2020)

They could lockdown areas in a staggered effect but get the MOD to road block areas to stop people moving about.
My wife’s hospital is taking C-19 patients from overloaded London hospitals, and they have run out of PP gear already.


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## GetAGrip (22 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> Indeed, poor choice of words. One of my daughters students stepped off Clifton Suspension bridge this week. A young man. Heartbreaking.


It is very sad. 
Some years ago I lost a sibling to suicide. In the months to follow I did find myself telling people around me, to "not tread on egg shells" <-  around me with regards idioms during conversations. These sayings are entrenched in our language and I was so grateful for their support and friendship and in turn I wanted to make people at ease to be in my company.


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## Pale Rider (22 Mar 2020)

Use of the word 'suicide' has become less acceptable in the last 10 years or so.

A couple of coroners around here now put 'took his own life' in the verdict box of the official form they fill in after an inquest.

Not so long ago they would always have used the s word in those circumstances.

The word has also fallen out of use in hearings in a bid to spare the feelings of the family a little.


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## Mo1959 (22 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Use of the word 'suicide' has become less acceptable in the last 10 years or so.
> 
> A couple of coroners around here now put 'took his own life' in the verdict box of the official form they fill in after an inquest.
> 
> ...


Horrible whatever it's called 😢 When I was in the prison service I had the misfortune to be first on the scene of a 19 year old girl hanging. Rest of the staff came round and we did CPR and technically got her out alive, but sadly the brain must have been starved of oxygen for a bit too long and life support was switched off a couple of days later. You then have to relive it all again months down the line at a fatal accident enquiry.


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## Ming the Merciless (22 Mar 2020)

A climbing friend commited suicide in 2004 in their late 20’s. When they were out in the mountains and climbing they would soar like an eagle. When they were at home they would sink. There will be a few like that now who will struggle with the restrictions on movement. Deprived of their soaring moments.


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## Pale Rider (22 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Horrible whatever it's called 😢 When I was in the prison service I had the misfortune to be first on the scene of a 19 year old girl hanging. Rest of the staff came round and we did CPR and technically got her out alive, but sadly the brain must have been starved of oxygen for a bit too long and life support was switched off a couple of days later. You then have to relive it all again months down the line at a fatal accident enquiry.



Coroners are particularly keen to show the inquest process is open and above board if a prison or prisoner is involved.

If a wife finds her husband hanging in the house, the coroner may now accept the wife's statement to the police as her evidence.

This is assumed to be less distressing for her than physically giving the evidence at the hearing.


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## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> A very lengthy post, but I find it interesting there's not comment about what's happened in prisons in Iran or other countries.



Mass prisoner release you mean? That is an option here in the UK but only for D and C cat. (if we have start moving on to B then it's grim) but not without issues since Graylings "pet project" community supervision is a total mass. Probation is a shell of the former service. Many are already graded as poor or failing add in many are being released with no place to go. we already have some being let out with nothing more than a tent. You face the situation of a mass input of people with complex needs into already over worked services. Add in mass number needed pre release assessments the extra work load would be totally unworkable. Sadly for many Prison is the only place they feel safe. They already commit petty crime in order to recalled. Again adding to extra work into the mix. Many would simply go off the radar completely. You could tag them all but then again that service is a mess and would just not cope and recall rate would be high. Police custody would collapse. 

It's not impossible many in prison really could service a sentence in the community. But it would be like moving over to a more effective offender approach over night. We don't have the structure for it to work effectively and safely. Plus they'd need an income once out as finding work for many ex offenders is impossible e.g around 80% of the prison population can't read. Again mass input for the DWP.
Most offenders are not bad people they have just done bad things and can with help get sorted. But without a total new service built from the ground up mass release would basically mean throwing them on mass under the bus.

It is being planned as a possible option of designating other building as prisons and move some into them. Not without problems do you use staff we have in the service taking away from already short front line ? Extra staff from other placers not prison officers? immigration already has taken over a number of hotels to quarantine illegal immigrants. But that's not as complex as holding current offenders in a building that's not fit. We no longer have moth balled army camps so that's out. Most of the already closed prison estate has gone or is not in a condition to be be reopened. One option wolund be moving things round within prisons. Doncaster for example was a cat B but moved to cat C. So still has the extra stuff in place like extra doors within the wings and inner and outer perimeter. But it's a limited option. 
The open prisons we have can't take many more as they are being swapped already to free up placers.

A solution will have to be found and quickly the Adult offender service and Youth offender service have great people. But just don't have enough people or resources. Health care on the out side look's likely to collapse on the inside shortage is even worse.
Once that go's under it's game over. A rethink will have to come quickly weather the public are willing to go with it. That's another question.


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## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Horrible whatever it's called 😢 When I was in the prison service I had the misfortune to be first on the scene of a 19 year old girl hanging. Rest of the staff came round and we did CPR and technically got her out alive, but sadly the brain must have been starved of oxygen for a bit too long and life support was switched off a couple of days later. You then have to relive it all again months down the line at a fatal accident enquiry.



Yes it's grim Mo and waiting to have to go though it all again is hard to deal with without the rest. Mrs 73 once had 3 to deal with left waiting years down the line.


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## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Coroners are particularly keen to show the inquest process is open and above board if a prison or prisoner is involved



Rightly so it should be it's just the time it takes and no-one really can start to move on until it's happened. inc the family


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## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

London mayor in interview this morning turns out "boris bikes" are now free for NHS staff to get to work.


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## Johnno260 (22 Mar 2020)

Wife just messaged me from Tesco and they’re checking ID’s, people are still trying to sneak in and kicking off when turned away.


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## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Having set times for NHS staff is ok and great but they don't work set times. Accessing it won't be easy I bit of rethink will have to happen. Online is one option if you can get a slot that is.


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## Johnno260 (22 Mar 2020)

I like G-Techs thinking basic but in tests it’s holding up well.
https://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk....medical-ventilator-manufactured-matter-days/


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## marinyork (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Mass prisoner release you mean? That is an option here in the UK but only for D and C cat. (if we have start moving on to B then it's grim) but not without issues since Graylings "pet project" community supervision is a total mass. Probation is a shell of the former service. Many are already graded as poor or failing add in many are being released with no place to go. we already have some being let out with nothing more than a tent. You face the situation of a mass input of people with complex needs into already over worked services. Add in mass number needed pre release assessments the extra work load would be totally unworkable. Sadly for many Prison is the only place they feel safe. They already commit petty crime in order to recalled. Again adding to extra work into the mix. Many would simply go off the radar completely. You could tag them all but then again that service is a mess and would just not cope and recall rate would be high. Police custody would collapse.



Thanks for your thoughts. 

On the other side I hope the tech side which I've written about does come on board the next month to three months for testing. A mobile qPCR or other test would give more of a sporting chance of picking up covid-19 cases early in prisons if there are few releases. I do have worries generally that when this fantastic tech comes into force it may suffer from a lack of imagination by the government and it just being used in hospitals and the odd large health centre, rather than more widely (you do need someone to take swabs and run the machines and a few other things, but this could be done at a large number of sites than at present).


----------



## marinyork (22 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I like G-Techs thinking basic but in tests it’s holding up well.
> https://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk....medical-ventilator-manufactured-matter-days/



Nick Grey was on Sky and cautiously optimistic that very large numbers could be produced by GTECH (up to 1000 per day, a couple of days ago were talking smaller numbers). McLaren were also on the news as part of a consortium and hoping things could get rolling the next few days.


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## Joey Shabadoo (22 Mar 2020)

On another board a guy working for a pharmaceutical firm says his company are working on an order for 6.5m test kits. What's slowing them down is the logistics.


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## Mugshot (22 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Wife just messaged me from Tesco and they’re checking ID’s, people are still trying to sneak in and kicking off when turned away.


Checking IDs?


----------



## MrGrumpy (22 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> On another board a guy working for a pharmaceutical firm says his company are working on an order for 6.5m test kits. What's slowing them down is the logistics.



logistics of sending them out or gathering the required parts ? Or both !


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## mjr (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> London mayor in interview this morning turns out "boris bikes" are now free for NHS staff to get to work.


Great move but potentially a load of new-to-city cyclists added to inner London days after the mayor let the motorists back in by lifting the congestion charge and ULEZ might not go well :-\


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## glasgowcyclist (22 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> A climbing friend commited suicide in 2004



This is a phrase that ought to be avoided as it has those lingering connotations of criminality. Suicide was decriminalised in 1961. Better to use a phrase such as died by suicide.

Sorry to hear about your friend.


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## Johnno260 (22 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Checking IDs?



for the NHS opening times, you can look and fill trolley 1hr before opening times.
Wife said everyone was responsible and it looked like food to cover 3-4 days max.


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## Mugshot (22 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> for the NHS opening times, you can look and fill trolley 1hr before opening times.
> Wife said everyone was responsible and it looked like food to cover 3-4 days max.


Ah right, thank you


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Thanks for your thoughts.
> 
> On the other side I hope the tech side which I've written about does come on board the next month to three months for testing. A mobile qPCR or other test would give more of a sporting chance of picking up covid-19 cases early in prisons if there are few releases. I do have worries generally that when this fantastic tech comes into force it may suffer from a lack of imagination by the government and it just being used in hospitals and the odd large health centre, rather than more widely (you do need someone to take swabs and run the machines and a few other things, but this could be done at a large number of sites than at present).


yes tech will come into it's own in the current situation. As you say lack of imagination is the problem together with willingness to change. The NHS recored on tech is crap as it is. So many things can already be done a lot cheeper, quicker and at low cost. It's just not joined up enough and mostly left to people who are clueless. As you know a lot of paper is still flying around which should have been ended long ago.


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## Joey Shabadoo (22 Mar 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> logistics of sending them out or gathering the required parts ? Or both !


A bit of both I think.


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## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

When we get locked down people need to look back on this before they blame government, anyone else or beat up the 1st "Foreign" looking person they find.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504

1000's are likely to die shortly and you've just added a few extra 1000 to the totally. Nice one people


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## Proto (22 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> On another board a guy working for a pharmaceutical firm says his company are working on an order for 6.5m test kits. What's slowing them down is the logistics.



im pretty sure that the electo-mechanical itself is relatively easy - pumps,valves, timers, sensor etc - but the clever part is the feedback and control of the device. They are very sophisticated.


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## Dave7 (22 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Ah, with it now.
> 
> Your conclusion is the correct one, but of course, it's not the one I want to hear.


Difficult choice. When we had our static it was on a big plot, maybe 30 metres from our nearest neighbour. No club or pub. So effectively we are nearer to our neighbours at home than we would be there.


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## Rickshaw Phil (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> When we get locked down people need to look back on this before they blame government, anyone else or beat up the 1st "Foreign" looking person they find.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504
> 
> 1000's are likely to die shortly and you've just added a few extra 1000 to the totally. Nice one people


I was going to post that link myself. Somehow I don't think that our current freedom to go out on solitary walks or cycle rides is going to last very long. Thanks a bunch people.


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## Dave7 (22 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Horrible whatever it's called 😢 When I was in the prison service I had the misfortune to be first on the scene of a 19 year old girl hanging. Rest of the staff came round and we did CPR and technically got her out alive, but sadly the brain must have been starved of oxygen for a bit too long and life support was switched off a couple of days later. You then have to relive it all again months down the line at a fatal accident enquiry.


Sad that Mo. Something you are not likely to forget.


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## johnnyb47 (22 Mar 2020)

I'm really worried about my elderly neighbour. She suffers with dementia but also very strong minded and set in her ways.
She won't stay in no matter how much i tell her. She doesn't seem to realise how vulnerable she is, and is not taking self isolation or social distancing seriously.. I keep going on and on at her to be careful to the point she now thinks I'm being argumentive.
Last night for instance she decided, she was going to the local Indian restaurant (as she always does every Saturday night)
Trying to persuade her that it's shut was impossible. I had to get them to call her and say they where shut.
Today whilst filling the car up with fuel she came walking past the petrol station with her groceries. She said hello and i felt awful not offering her a lift back home because of social distancing. Later on she's back outside again bringing me a bottle of wine over to say thank for sorting her house smoke alarms out the other week.
Its really difficult at the moment trying to persuade her to realise she's in danger without offending her.
With all this going on and that my job for the last 13 years may come to end next week due to the turn down of work from this bloody virus my mood and nerves are somewhat fraught.
God knows how the bills will get paid.
The thing is though we are all in the same boat with similar problems going on at the moment.
At least I've got my bike to use and escape all this madness for the time being 🙄


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## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Finally had an email from work about what happening at school nice to know your valued 
look's like I'm done for the duration. Better hold onto the bike fund I my need it.


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## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> I'm really worried about my elderly neighbour. She suffers with dementia but also very strong minded and set in her ways.
> She won't stay in no matter how much i tell her. She doesn't seem to realise how vulnerable she is, and is not taking self isolation or social distancing seriously.. I keep going on and on at her to be careful to the point she now thinks I'm being argumentive.
> Last night for instance she decided, she was going to the local Indian restaurant (as she always does every Saturday night)
> Trying to persuade her that it's shut was impossible. I had to get them to call her and say they where shut.
> ...



mmmm that's a difficult one all you can do is what your doing which is your best. Has she any relatives or social service involvement. Who can try and help her? Our try if you know which her GP.


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## johnnyb47 (22 Mar 2020)

@tom73.
Sadly she's got no family to fall back on, and is very stubborn and to proud to ask for help. People who don't know her, would find her somewhat eccentric and aggressive, but underneath that hard exterior she's a very thoughtful caring person. It's just very difficult in persuading her to take this all seriously without getting a clout around the earhole with her brolly at the moment


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## Dave7 (22 Mar 2020)

Just reading that Snowdon had its busiest Saturday in history yesterday 
Are these people totally bl**dy mad AND selfish.


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## Dave Davenport (22 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Just reading that Snowdon had its busiest Saturday in history yesterday
> Are these people totally bl**dy mad AND selfish.


It would appear so.


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## Rickshaw Phil (22 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Just reading that Snowdon had its busiest Saturday in history yesterday
> Are these people totally bl**dy mad AND selfish.


Yes, I'm afraid so.


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## Dave Davenport (22 Mar 2020)

Just been to Lidl, was quite quiet and the only shelves completely empty was loo rolls & tissues etc. I assume all the stockpiling numpties have run out of storage space.


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## Joey Shabadoo (22 Mar 2020)

> Iran's Supreme Leader has rejected America's offer of aid to help the country with its battle against coronavirus. In a televised speech, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the US was Iran's "most evil enemy" and hinted at a conspiracy theory, also voiced by some Chinese officials, that America was responsible for the pandemic.
> “*I do not know how real this accusation is but* when it exists, who in their right mind would trust you to bring them medication?" Mr Khamenei said. "Possibly your medicine is a way to spread the virus more.”
> Without offering any evidence, he also alleged that the virus “is specifically built for Iran using the genetic data of Iranians which they have obtained through different means”.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51994675

Hopefully the Iranian people will vote this idiot out at the next ele...

Oh wait,


----------



## numbnuts (22 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Just reading that Snowdon had its busiest Saturday in history yesterday
> Are these people totally bl**dy mad AND selfish.


So you can't climb a mountain, but it's OK to push a trolley around a packed supermarkets makes sense to me


----------



## ozboz (22 Mar 2020)

I was in Sainsbury’s , couldn’t pay for stuff my bank may have been hacked, phoned HSBC and no go till tomorrow morn , wonderful , anyway all calm , quite well stocked , mad thing is , everyone appeared to be spying on what everyone else had in their baskets 
Reminded me of a father Ted programme 😂
I’m off for ride in a bit , going stir fry in here , 
Keep safe all


----------



## glasgowcyclist (22 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> So you can't climb a mountain, but it's OK to push a trolley around a packed supermarkets makes sense to me



Eating is essential, the other is not. 
It’s not difficult.


----------



## Mo1959 (22 Mar 2020)

Car mot this Tuesday. Presume essential garage work will continue to keep people safe and legal. I also have a dental check up on 7th April which I think I will cancel, even although at the moment they are still doing check ups.


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

@Brompton Bruce seen this ? 
Not only is the PPE pointless some of it being sent out is out of date and been re dated so fit to use.

View: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-oxfordshire-51981350/oxfordshire-gp-slams-wholly-inadequate-coronavirus-protection


----------



## fossyant (22 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Have you decided to close the van @fossyant or have the owners closed site?
> 
> I haven't opened mine yet because I can't decide if I ought to be using it or not.
> 
> ...



Decided to close. It's a private site, so open to owners.


----------



## Rocky (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Brompton Bruce seen this ?
> Not only is the PPE pointless some of it being sent out is out of date and been re dated so fit to use.
> 
> View: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-oxfordshire-51981350/oxfordshire-gp-slams-wholly-inadequate-coronavirus-protection



Thanks!! My wife tells me that what the GP is saying is true but the situation is slightly more nuanced than she claims. First, it the level of protection required depends on the procedure that the GP will be doing (those WHO guidelines were for aerosolised procedure - eg intubation), for something less invasive, those aprons would be fine. There is no evidence that masks four years old will be less effective - but it seems a bit crass just to rebadge the use-by date. However, that level of supplies is probably wholly inadequate for the demand a busy practice like that would experience. The GP is also right about the eye protection - as I mentioned earlier in this thread, it seems increasing numbers of GPs are wearing swimming goggles in the absence of being provided with protective headwear and visors. The uncovered eyes of professionals seem very vulnerable as a method of getting the infection from a patient.


----------



## Dave7 (22 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> So you can't climb a mountain, but it's OK to push a trolley around a packed supermarkets makes sense to me


Unless you have been up Snowdon you will not know..... the 'top' is very very small. Its quite flat and has a large cafe. Apparently its rammed and people are shoulder to shoulder.


----------



## kingrollo (22 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Just reading that Snowdon had its busiest Saturday in history yesterday
> Are these people totally bl**dy mad AND selfish.


It was only a week ago that Boris Johnson told us that mass events should go ahead - and there was no evidence that lockdowns work.

So we shouldn't be too surprised - if people aren't fully on board with a swift 180 about turn ...


----------



## kingrollo (22 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Cannot see how what has happened in Italy can be taken as an indicator for events here given the differences in family social structures, not many elderly relatives here have relations visiting 24/7.


Seriously ????
Unless there is a variable I don't know about - we are pretty much nailed on to go the same was italy.
I also read an article saying the ageing population only tells half the story - as older people are less mobile so don't pass it on to as many people - that also explains why a lot of 50 something s are dying from CV


----------



## GetAGrip (22 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Use of the word 'suicide' has become less acceptable in the last 10 years or so.
> 
> A couple of coroners around here now put 'took his own life' in the verdict box of the official form they fill in after an inquest.
> 
> ...


----------



## nickyboy (22 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> They could lockdown areas in a staggered effect but get the MOD to road block areas to stop people moving about.
> My wife’s hospital is taking C-19 patients from overloaded London hospitals, and they have run out of PP gear already.


Partial lockdowns have been shown not to work. All it does is prompt a rapid exodus from the most infected areas to the least infected areas. Road blocks I can't see working, far too many ways out of, say, Greater London

I can't see any alternative to a broader lockdown. It would only be a matter of a couple of weeks before all areas would need the lockdown anyway


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Thanks!! My wife tells me that what the GP is saying is true but the situation is slightly more nuanced than she claims. First, it the level of protection required depends on the procedure that the GP will be doing (those WHO guidelines were for aerosolised procedure - eg intubation), for something less invasive, those aprons would be fine. There is no evidence that masks four years old will be less effective - but it seems a bit crass just to rebadge the use-by date. However, that level of supplies is probably wholly inadequate for the demand a busy practice like that would experience. The GP is also right about the eye protection - as I mentioned earlier in this thread, it seems increasing numbers of GPs are wearing swimming goggles in the absence of being provided with protective headwear and visors. The uncovered eyes of professionals seem very vulnerable as a method of getting the infection from a patient.



Yes that's my take on it too it just add's to the stress and many will be feeling quite nervous as it is. 
re intubation 
I've seen reports that some are going without any PPE to ensure they have some for carrying out intubation. 
Stocks will have to be found and quickly though we have been told more is on the way. As with many things we are going to need moved around and stock management. The sooner the Army get going on it the better. One thing they know is how to get stuff moving and how to manage it. As anyone know who's ever tried to get anything out of past the a QM.


----------



## Dave7 (22 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It was only a week ago that Boris Johnson told us that mass events should go ahead - and there was no evidence that lockdowns work.
> 
> So we shouldn't be too surprised - if people aren't fully on board with a swift 180 about turn ...


Not too sure what your point is (not being funny) but I am not the brightest and yet I know that uneccesary social gatherings are a bad idea. Surely they can't all be thick.


----------



## pawl (22 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Just reading that Snowdon had its busiest Saturday in history yesterday
> Are these people totally bl**dy mad AND selfish.



Perhaps they think the summit cafe is open


----------



## Dave7 (22 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Perhaps they think the summit cafe is open


Strangely it appears that it was


----------



## PK99 (22 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> There is no evidence that masks four years old will be less effective - but it seems a bit crass just to rebadge the use-by date.



That issue was addressed directly by an NHS spokesman the other day - the re-badging is only done after batch testing to confirm compliance to appropriate standards.


----------



## nickyboy (22 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Perhaps they think the summit cafe is open


It was that windy yesterday all those virus particles will be over Southern Ireland by now

I do get it that people should follow advice on unnecessary journeys and distancing. We seem to be forgetting that this is a massive change to how we live our lives and this change is easy for some and difficult for others. It's not that people are choosing to disregard advice, they just aren't appreciating what it really means. 

In any case, a few hundred folk up a mountain is not that important in the overall progress of the epidemic (although undesirable of course) and helps metal wellbeing. Stuff like limiting customer densities in supermarkets and forcing people to queue outside 2m apart would have a massively greater impact


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> That issue was addressed directly by an NHS spokesman the other day - the re-badging is only done after batch testing to confirm compliance to appropriate standards.


Well that maybe true and I can't see it not being. 
But what a time to be trying it out 
What message is it sending out above anything else ?


----------



## kingrollo (22 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Not too sure what your point is (not being funny) but I am not the brightest and yet I know that uneccesary social gatherings are a bad idea. Surely they can't all be thick.


My point you can't say lockdowns don't work - and then 48 hrs later announce a lockdown and expect everyone to fall in line.


----------



## Pale Rider (22 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Not too sure what your point is



That's because there isn't one - apart from seeking to make political capital out of the virus.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Mar 2020)

Of course when the numbers rise and it's linked back to these people being stupid, they'll blame the Govt for "advising them" and not sending riot police in to smash their skulls.

I think if Govt had imposed a total shutdown last week, it wouldn't have had public support. It will now.
And after people flout it again, there will be curfews but again, there will be public support.
Govt has to work *with* the public. This isn't China or Russia

I read that Italy has fined or taken action against 40,000 people breaching the shutdowns since they were imposed.


----------



## gavroche (22 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> - and there was no evidence that lockdowns work.


Really ?? What about China ? They had a total lockdown from the start and it is working now with no new reported cases, but it takes a bit of time of course. Without a lockdown, it will take a lot longer with more fatalities.


----------



## kingrollo (22 Mar 2020)

gavroche said:


> Really ?? What about China ? They had a total lockdown from the start and it is working now with no new reported cases, but it takes a bit of time of course. Without a lockdown, it will take a lot longer with more fatalities.


Oh yes I agree 
My initial point was that Johnson initially said that lockdown s don't work - then started to implement one a few days later - a lot of people are ignoring it.

I think we are 2 weeks tops away from an enforced lockdown.
Whether that will be as drastic as china s - I somehow doubt.


----------



## pawl (22 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> It was that windy yesterday all those virus particles will be over Southern Ireland by now
> 
> I do get it that people should follow advice on unnecessary journeys and distancing. We seem to be forgetting that this is a massive change to how we live our lives and this change is easy for some and difficult for others. It's not that people are choosing to disregard advice, they just aren't appreciating what it really means.
> 
> In any case, a few hundred folk up a mountain is not that important in the overall progress of the epidemic (although undesirable of course) and helps metal wellbeing. Stuff like limiting customer densities in supermarkets and forcing people to queue outside 2m apart would have a massively greater impact




If they Queuing 2m a part outside the summit cafe the end of the queue must be near the bottom of the mountain 

U


----------



## kingrollo (22 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> That's because there isn't one - apart from seeking to make political capital out of the virus.



Depends wot political capital is.? I think the lockdown should have been done earlier - and that Johnson shouldn't have said that lockdowns don't work........


----------



## marinyork (22 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Oh yes I agree
> My initial point was that Johnson initially said that lockdown s don't work - then started to implement one a few days later - a lot of people are ignoring it.



We haven't had a lockdown. We've had some soft measures not last week the week before. There have been substantial measures the last few days (earlier in the week many organisations taking decisions themselves).

A lockdown of greater london was hinted at by the government and belted around the newspapers for a day. That probably didn't help.


----------



## kingrollo (22 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> We haven't had a lockdown. We've had some soft measures not last week the week before. There have been substantial measures the last few days (earlier in the week many organisations taking decisions themselves).
> 
> A lockdown of greater london was hinted at by the government and belted around the newspapers for a day. That probably didn't help.


Yes fair point.
It was more "carry on as normal" - then " follow these guidelines"


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

I now think I'm in the middle of a music hall comedy I know nothing about. You can't make this up if you tried the ice-cream van has now arrived in the street .... I give up


----------



## nickyboy (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I now think I'm in the middle of a music hall comedy I know nothing about. You can't make this up if you tried the ice-cream van has now arrived in the street .... I give up


Are you popping out for a 19er or 99er?


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Primark are set to close from Monday. If that don't work nothing will


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Mar 2020)




----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Hammersmith and Fulham council will close parks from Sunday night


----------



## marinyork (22 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yes fair point.
> It was more "carry on as normal" - then " follow these guidelines"



I'm mystified why the 20th march update wasn't done about a week earlier, as it isn't that detailed on social distancing. There is no specific london, glasgow, hampshire, hertfordshire, brighton, west midlands guidance afaik. I'll comment on this on another post, but it's just not detailed enough. Additionally there's not much guidance on within families. The deputy chief medical officer has said that where risk is about the same that children in the same family can play etc, but the written down guidance needs beefing up on that as wasn't as far as I was aware saying stay close to each other all the time. DCMO Dr Jenny Harries does not, I'm sure, mean the sorts of things I've seen the last few days of large family mixing, people travelling in cars together, little children's hands all over grandparents and kids playing with other kids. People 30cm apart from each other.

In terms of lockdown we are right there where government has to make a decision on it. We're around 12-16 days behind Italy depending on what metrics you use, who you ask and so on (London isn't ) and Italy implemented a national lockdown 13 days ago. Unfortunately the actions citizens people take today are much, much more important than in 5 days' time.

Edit: although Lombardia and other northern areas are important, the really key bits of the figures coming out of Italy are the Puglias, the Basilicatas, the Sardinias, Napoli and so on. We need to know how different things work (or aren't sadly).


----------



## Mo1959 (22 Mar 2020)

There’s an update at 4.10pm. Wonder if there will be any new restrictions.


----------



## Mike_P (22 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> If they Queuing 2m a part outside the summit cafe the end of the queue must be near the bottom of the mountain


Shouldn't the cafe have been shut?


----------



## pawl (22 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Shouldn't the cafe have been shut?



I did think it didn’t open till Easter


----------



## Blue Hills (22 Mar 2020)

by the by for those of a gloomy disposition, the smithsonian channel, freeview ch57, is now showing a prog on the early 20th century "Spanish flu" outbreak.
No way of streaming watching online in uk.


----------



## Blue Hills (22 Mar 2020)

Pretty sure it was just a dark coincidence of scheduling.
One of the first experts said that the term spanish flu was almost certainly a misnomer, that it most likely started in america.


----------



## Mo1959 (22 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Pretty sure it was just a dark coincidence of scheduling.
> One of the first experts said that the term spanish flu was almost certainly a misnomer, that it most likely started in america.


Few conspiracy theories doing the rounds that this did too!


----------



## Blue Hills (22 Mar 2020)

Prog also said president woodrow wilson did nowt, didn"t even mention it, newspapers were hounded for trying to report it, one of main theories it ended up being dubbed spanish flu was because neutral spain didn't have its press strangled/shouted down. American state was more concerned to maintain morale and be "positive".
Did trump study history?
Apols by the way for this briefly appearing in the brexit thread - god knows what my tab and add-ons are up to, i don't even visit that place.
Good channel by the way from what i have seen of it.


----------



## lazybloke (22 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Did trump study history?


Judging by the utter tripe in his speeches, he hasn't studied anything.


----------



## Archie_tect (22 Mar 2020)

Two unintended consequences:

Do 'home deliveries' include an ice cream man [complete with musical tune] pootling around the estates selling his wares to young children who rush out for a cornet?

Last night, with the empty streets devoid of people and traffic, the boy racers have discovered they can drive around at whatever speed they like- there's a triangular 'circuit' with roundabouts, about 3 miles long in total, some must be up to 80/90+ mph on bits of it- it's like a F! circuit. They park up to meet and then do 'fastest laps'. Fortunately our local bobby paid them a visit and it';s all quiet.


----------



## pawl (22 Mar 2020)

A sign outside of Whitby is asking people to go home apparently the place is packed .Tour buses are still visiting.I think Boris is wasting his breath in asking the country to think before making essential trips.I can see total lockdown coming sooner than later.


----------



## Glow worm (22 Mar 2020)

Rickshaw Phil said:


> I was going to post that link myself. Somehow I don't think that our current freedom to go out on solitary walks or cycle rides is going to last very long. Thanks a bunch people.



I was thinking the same. So many morons.
And look at this lot today- sadly many groups of cyclists. Its like the opening scene from an apocalyptic disaster movie.

View: https://twitter.com/Urban_Pictures/status/1241700761140187137


----------



## pawl (22 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Two unintended consequences:
> 
> Do 'home deliveries' include an ice cream man [complete with musical tune] pootling around the estates selling his wares to young children who rush out for a cornet?
> 
> Last night, with the empty streets devoid of people and traffic, the boy racers have discovered they can drive around at whatever speed they like- there's a triangular 'circuit' with roundabouts, about 3 miles long in total, some must be up to 80/90+ mph on bits of it- it's like a F! circuit. They park up to meet and then do 'fastest laps'. Fortunately our local bobby paid them a visit and it';s all quiet.




We used to have an ice cream man come round on one of those bikes .with a sign sayingstop me and buy one.We called him the one poke man.Of course we soon thought up a rhyme Oce poke penny a lump the more you eat the more you trump.


----------



## Archie_tect (22 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> I was thinking the same. So many morons.
> And look at this lot today- sadly many groups of cyclists. Its like the opening scene from an apocalyptic disaster movie.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Urban_Pictures/status/1241700761140187137



They, like every one who has gone [is still going] out alone, will think that they are solo cycling... it just doesn't apply to them.


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I now think I'm in the middle of a music hall comedy I know nothing about. You can't make this up if you tried the ice-cream van has now arrived in the street .... I give up


Oh for the days of the lemonade truck! 2 bottles of........please!


----------



## Blue Hills (22 Mar 2020)

Reply to glowworms worrying post
My
main browser usually blocks twitterstuff but i opened that.
Terrible.
Any of us (the racing bunch) in that footage?
Recognise any clubs?


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> I was thinking the same. So many morons.
> And look at this lot today- sadly many groups of cyclists. Its like the opening scene from an apocalyptic disaster movie.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Urban_Pictures/status/1241700761140187137



Close the parks now, it happened here last week, people taking advantage of a warm weekend and sunbathing in large groups. Most people are taking it pretty seriously here now.


----------



## Archie_tect (22 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Oh for the days of the lemonade truck! 2 bottles of........please!


Cream soda...


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Cream soda...


Yes but the brand is important, I preferred Ben Shaws but there was another brand...


----------



## Glow worm (22 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> They, like every one who has gone [is still going] out alone, will think that they are solo cycling... it just doesn't apply to them.



Granted there look like one or two on their own, but mostly big groups riding together. Seems insane to me.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Mar 2020)

My Twitter feed gives me different stuff


View: https://twitter.com/mmjblair/status/1241469802834800640


----------



## Dave7 (22 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> We used to have an ice cream man come round on one of those bikes .with a sign sayingstop me and buy one.We called him the one poke man.Of course we soon thought up a rhyme Oce poke penny a lump the more you eat the more you trump.


Dare I ask how old you were


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (22 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> by the by for those of a gloomy disposition, the smithsonian channel, freeview ch57, is now showing a prog on the early 20th century "Spanish flu" outbreak.
> *No way of streaming watching online in uk.*



Just did a quick search, there are quite a few documentaries on the subject.

With Amazon Prime, there is this, but you need to VPN into USA to watch it.

On PBS, this seems free streaming for all: https://www.pbs.org/video/american-experience-influenza-1918/

The Smithsonian one is available for streaming with hulu etc. e.g.

I am sure there are more / more access options.


----------



## Archie_tect (22 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Yes but the brand is important, I preferred Ben Shaws but there was another brand...


No there wasn't.
It's Ben Shaw's or nowt ....


----------



## pawl (22 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> I was thinking the same. So many morons.
> And look at this lot today- sadly many groups of cyclists. Its like the opening scene from an apocalyptic disaster movie.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Urban_Pictures/status/1241700761140187137



Plenty of cyclists about today All solo no groups


Dave7 said:


> Dare I ask how old you were




79 oh sorry I thought you meant currently.Think we must have been about six or seven.Suspect this little ditty must have been made up by lads with a more creative mind than us little oiks


----------



## ozboz (22 Mar 2020)

It’s Good Friday in 19 days, God only knows what it will be like at Easter if the weather is fair and the masses are allowed to roam around everywhere, , Boris and Co have got some major decisions to make , it’s obvious that what is being reported that not a lot of notice being taken of the perils that may unfold ,


----------



## kingrollo (22 Mar 2020)

On a gloomy note - doesn't everything come back to the same basic problem......

There's too many of us


----------



## Dave7 (22 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Plenty of cyclists about today All solo no groups
> 
> 
> 
> 79 oh sorry I thought you meant currently.Think we must have been about six or seven.Suspect this little ditty must have been made up by lads with a more creative mind than us little oils.


Off subject really but (aged 73) I recall parts of silly poems we used to recite but cannot recall the whole thing ..... quite annoying.
I well recall the Hitler has only got one ball but others have sadly faded from memory


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> I was thinking the same. So many morons.
> And look at this lot today- sadly many groups of cyclists. Its like the opening scene from an apocalyptic disaster movie.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Urban_Pictures/status/1241700761140187137



oh FFS if living in an area that is currently seeing it's health service all but wiped out. Won't get them to think and take note nothing will.
Good on the women for speaking out.
Royal have said they are now closing cafes, kiosks and made it clear if you don't play by the rules the parks will close.
It's madness today round here has been as if nothing happening though I i've only been out with dog and just had another walk about for some air.
Are we going to have see another nurse in bits filming themselves for people to get this.
1st it's every one laughing at the idea of hand washing being any use. Now it's laughing at the idea of social distancing being any use.

I see the anti cycling lot are having a field day over this. Just get an eye test I'm sure I spotted more than a few car.


----------



## marinyork (22 Mar 2020)

The only ray of sunshine today is the uk seems to be now consistently carrying out 6000 tests per day. Everything else is bad.


----------



## marinyork (22 Mar 2020)

Switched off the press conference. Worst one yet. If anyone finds anything useful out of it please post it.


----------



## PK99 (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> oh FFS if living in an area that is currently seeing it's health service all but wiped out. Won't get them to think and take note nothing will.
> Good on the women for speaking out.
> Royal have said they are now closing cafes, kiosks and made it clear if you don't play by the rules the parks will close.
> It's madness today round here has been as if nothing happening though I i've only been out with dog and just had another walk about for some air.
> ...



I'm a Richmond Park regular - i have never seen the park as busy as that!


----------



## marinyork (22 Mar 2020)

Italy numbers seem to be 651 dead today. Slight improvement on yesterday. Another blip like midweek? Or good news at last.


----------



## Salty seadog (22 Mar 2020)

It's


randynewmanscat said:


> Oh for the days of the lemonade truck! 2 bottles of........please!



Nesbits Lime Soda. 

As the song goes....... 

'Just one last bottle of Nesbits lime soda but I had to throw it away....'


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Italy numbers seem to be 651 dead today. Slight improvement on yesterday. Another blip like midweek? Or good news at last.



Let's hope so. If only we could learn their lesson.


----------



## fossyant (22 Mar 2020)

Other than Boris telling folk to be responsible, erm they won't listen.


----------



## fossyant (22 Mar 2020)

Well my on line pharmacy order appears to have worked for the first time. Only taken 3 months.


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

off twitter please share


----------



## MarkF (22 Mar 2020)

Boris:- _It is very important for people's mental and physical wellbeing that they should be able to get out and exercise," he says, adding not everyone has a private open space. "That is why parks and open spaces are absolutely crucial." _


----------



## ozboz (22 Mar 2020)

Boris just been hijacked by an ITV reporter, so he is in front of the Nation not totally informed by the Woman stood on his left about a report of a hospital she obviously has knowledge of , if it’s replayed look how he gives her a quizzical glance/glare ,


----------



## Rezillo (22 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Switched off the press conference. Worst one yet. If anyone finds anything useful out of it please post it.



It's just dreadful. I started to write my take on what was being said but gave up. " Johnson is utterly useless" seems to cover it all, though.


----------



## kingrollo (22 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Boris:- _It is very important for people's mental and physical wellbeing that they should be able to get out and exercise," he says, adding not everyone has a private open space. "That is why parks and open spaces are absolutely crucial." _



On past form then the Parks will be closed from 6pm tommorow.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (22 Mar 2020)

I'm sure someone will be along in a minute to say what a good job he's doing in difficult times.


----------



## Glow worm (22 Mar 2020)

That appeared to me to be the PM waiving a yellow card to the British people. I Suspect a red is inevitable and soon.


----------



## pawl (22 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Off subject really but (aged 73) I recall parts of silly poems we used to recite but cannot recall the whole thing ..... quite annoying.
> I well recall the Hitler has only got one ball but others have sadly faded from memory



Bare with me I’m having to dredge the depths of my memory.i think it went Hitler he’s only got one ball.Goring had two but very small Himlars were very similar but Rivantrop had no balls at all.

Not sure about the last name but you get the idea.


----------



## Tenkaykev (22 Mar 2020)

As I remember hearing:

Hitler, he's only got one ball,
Goerings got two but small,
Himmler has something similar,
But Goebells has no balls at all


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Yesterday it was day out at the seaside today it look's like they've moved on to the seaside of the peaks. 
Derbyshire Road Policing unit out in Matlock Bath. 
It's like they are daring the government to push the button. This is not a game it's a matter of life or death.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (22 Mar 2020)

The PM asking the determined idiots to do the right thing simply isn’t working. Meanwhile, here in Scotland, the police are no longer asking but ordering all licensed premises that have so far failed to follow advice, to close. 

Any licensed premises which refuses to comply with the government advice is today being visited by officers who will serve an emergency closure order on the grounds of the threat posed to public health and safety. The compulsory closure under the Licensing Scotland Act remains in force for 24 hours but will be repeated as necessary.

They will also be reported to the Licensing Board for further action to be considered.

The time for asking nicely has now passed, the PM needs to be firm.


----------



## Mike_P (22 Mar 2020)

There are playing for time if they can as a major collapse of commerce will occur if a lockdown occurs, my employer encouraged home working anyway but for everyone to do so with access to the office systems needs a number of capacity improvements which on Friday we were told would take 4 weeks for the suppliers to implement. Have this coming week off and do not expect to see the office for some time although as its near did say I would go in.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (22 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> It's just dreadful. I started to write my take on what was being said but gave up. *" Johnson is utterly useless"* seems to cover it all, though.



I have to disagree slightly. *They are all utterly useless*!

That includes their "scientists", and "science" they say they rely on, for the avoidance of doubt.

If the government can't give nurses adequate PPE at this starting point, having known this was going to hit for two months, how on earth are they going to deliver suitable food and medicine reliably to up to 1.5 millions next week?

Knowing hospitals are already under stress, that woman on his right is still talking about "timing" further initiatives to tackle the problem, that is just absolutely ridiculous - the thing is exploding exponentially, how exactly can waiting help mitigate the disaster?

For those who haven't read it, the same author who wrote what I believe the best description of the challenge has penned another article, entitled "The Hammer and the Dance". It logically describes and explains why the problem must be hit as hard asap (the hammer), and what to do after (the dance). Amongst other things, it completely demolishes the government's "mitigation" / herd immunity strategy, and dispels the myth and speculation that waiting can bring benefits, or that future killer waves are unavoidable. Highly recommended.


----------



## Mike_P (22 Mar 2020)

Incidentally the corner shop program currently on BBC2 is the 1970s with Corona on the shelves.


----------



## Dave7 (22 Mar 2020)

Tenkaykev said:


> As I remember hearing:
> 
> Hitler, he's only got one ball,
> Goerings got two but small,
> ...


hahaha
As a 10 year old, with no real idea what we were singing about, it was....... 
Hitler has only got one ball
Hitler has only got one ball
His brother has got the other
Poor old Himmler has got none atall.
It may be childish humour like this that gets us through this mess.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Mar 2020)

Sigh

the real story behind the tune



View: https://youtu.be/Y1DWJQkOJew


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Oh please Olympic high ups have met and giving it another 4 weeks before they decide.


----------



## pawl (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yesterday it was day out at the seaside today it look's like they've moved on to the seaside of the peaks.
> Derbyshire Road Policing unit out in Matlock Bath.
> It's like they are daring the government to push the button. This is not a game it's a matter of life or death.
> 
> View attachment 509782





I can remember in the late fifties early sixties that photographs would show cyclists.Quite often there would be a large group who had stopped in Matlock for tea then riding home Clubs from Derby Notting Loughborough Leicester plus the CTC groups from those areas all heading down the A6


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> It's just dreadful. I started to write my take on what was being said but gave up. " Johnson is utterly useless" seems to cover it all, though.


The phrase ''dither and delay'' seems highly appropriate. You're meant to be flattening the curve not following behind it!


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Boris:- _It is very important for people's mental and physical wellbeing that they should be able to get out and exercise," he says, adding not everyone has a private open space. "That is why parks and open spaces are absolutely crucial." _


Indeed but the public have shown they cannot be trusted, they congregate, it happened here so Macrons government ramped up the message by shutting public spaces.
The pictures of sea side resorts with people milling about doing sea sidey things shocked me, as though an attitude of must get a last day out because we might be shut up for a while, more time wasted and more contacts.
The drone aerial view of a Tesco further up the thread seems to show distance between the poor saps queuing around the perimeter of the car park. People are starting to get the message, probably via some personal fear but its not fast enough, every hour counts surely?


----------



## pawl (22 Mar 2020)

Tenkaykev said:


> As I remember hearing:
> 
> Hitler, he's only got one ball,
> Goerings got two but small,
> ...



Spot on


----------



## numbnuts (22 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> If the government can't give nurses adequate PPE at this starting point,





> We gave all the protection gear to China
> UK sends 650,000 gloves, wipes and gowns to China to fight Coronavirus crisis
> Britain is also sending 2,500 face masks
> 24/02/2020


Maybe we thought we were inviincible and could replace them easily
I also know that a company in the Southampton sent Apple in Germany 1000s of face masks


----------



## Mike_P (22 Mar 2020)

Seems people in Bradford today were being told to go home and stay there by medics so they obviously think BoJo is dithering too much.


----------



## Bazzer (22 Mar 2020)

Most of the businesses in and around my village seem to have come together and for some at least looking at ways of at least trying to get some income. For example, one of the two village pubs * is now offering a takeway service as well as bread and other foodstuffs, a couple of farm shops are now taking telephone orders, as is a Spar about a mile and half away. 
As an aside, my next door neighbour who sells kiln dried logs told Mrs B yesterday he can't keep up with demand, because more people are now staying home.
*The other pub is apparently demanding clientele keep a social distance.


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> If the government can't give nurses adequate PPE at this starting point, having known this was going to hit for two months, how on earth are they going to deliver suitable food and medicine reliably to up to 1.5 millions next week?


I heard the man say "whatever it takes", I also heard (paraphrase) "if it costs billions". I guess there are only so many sources of PPE and there are now many, many buyers, procurement need to be working on this day and night.


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

Bazzer said:


> *The other pub is apparently demanding clientele keep a social distance.


While doing what? The pubs are closed for drink.


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> It’s Good Friday in 19 days, God only knows what it will be like at Easter if the weather is fair and the masses are allowed to roam around everywhere, , Boris and Co have got some major decisions to make , it’s obvious that what is being reported that not a lot of notice being taken of the perils that may unfold ,


Bank holiday should be postponed as two days more to celebrate when the dread is over, whenever that will be.


----------



## Julia9054 (22 Mar 2020)

In my town, the cafe in the market square appearing to carry on as usual


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Re food the army will be running the show together with the supermarkets who know have to deliver food. The week link is the hope LA know who need's what. Many don't have clue.


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Bare with me I’m having to dredge the depths of my memory.i think it went Hitler he’s only got one ball.Goring had two but very small Himlars were very similar but Rivantrop had no balls at all.
> 
> Not sure about the last name but you get the idea.


Colonel Bogey!


----------



## Johnno260 (22 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The only ray of sunshine today is the uk seems to be now consistently carrying out 6000 tests per day. Everything else is bad.


Nah G-Techs prototype ventilator was good news and a smart use of components.


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

If we have to get locked down ok but for the love of god please can we do without the local boys in blue inflicting stuff like this.

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1241620852392824839


----------



## Johnno260 (22 Mar 2020)

But they need enforced lockdowns or totally harsh penalties for bars, pubs that open, I would fine, prosecute and revoke their license indefinitely.
I cycled pasts 4 pubs, all open, all packed total idiots all of them.
This crisis has shown me a large portion of the country are total morons.
The NHS opening time for Tesco’s was a nice idea but my wife won’t do it again it was more dangerous.


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> The PM asking the determined idiots to do the right thing simply isn’t working. Meanwhile, here in Scotland, the police are no longer asking but ordering all licensed premises that have so far failed to follow advice, to close.
> 
> Any licensed premises which refuses to comply with the government advice is today being visited by officers who will serve an emergency closure order on the grounds of the threat posed to public health and safety. The compulsory closure under the Licensing Scotland Act remains in force for 24 hours but will be repeated as necessary.
> 
> ...


My local bar and cafe is run by two oldies. They have a tobacco license, my dopey young friend went in and asked for a drink, she laughed and said "only tabac". It is a license fail to contravene a public order much like it is in the UK, no license, no trading.


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> If we have to get locked down ok but for the love of god please can we do without the local boys in blue inflicting stuff like this.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1241620852392824839



There will be morris dancing and an accordion.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/BendyBen999/status/1241443836230021120


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Oh please Olympic high ups have met and giving it another 4 weeks before they decide.


In denial, no Tour, no Olympics, I may be proven wrong but I think I would take a small wager on that.


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> There will be morris dancing and an accordion.



Well at least folk dancing means beer is not fair away


----------



## ozboz (22 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/BendyBen999/status/1241443836230021120



Ffs ! That just about sums up the mentality of some of the UK population regarding this virus ,,


----------



## Johnno260 (22 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> Ffs ! That just about sums up the mentality of some of the UK population regarding this virus ,,


On the nations tombstone they can write death from stupidity


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> Ffs ! That just about sums up the mentality of some of the UK population regarding this virus ,,


I was thinking about Britain and the reaction to this crisis during the last week and I thought about the Do long bridge scene from Apocalypse Now, "Do you know who's in charge here?"
Its very bizarre to see how this has unfolded, dither, mixed messages, more dither.


----------



## Glow worm (22 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1241785527608713216


----------



## Bazzer (22 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> While doing what? The pubs are closed for drink.


A la carte menu and bar snacks apparently, according to the newsletter delivered to our house. 
Seems to me go against the PM's announcement a couple of days ago, but I shan't be going.


----------



## Gunk (22 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> View: https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1241785527608713216




All sunbathing to try and kill the virus


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> There will be morris dancing and an accordion.


Christ! Things are bad enough already!


----------



## Fab Foodie (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I now think I'm in the middle of a music hall comedy I know nothing about. You can't make this up if you tried the ice-cream van has now arrived in the street .... I give up


We had one yesterday!


----------



## Mugshot (22 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> We had one yesterday!


Hey, you ok?


----------



## StuAff (22 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> We had one yesterday!


Must have been a bit filling, and chewy…


----------



## glasgowcyclist (22 Mar 2020)

This is a video compilation of several Italian mayors losing the plot at the actions of some of their citizens. I can confirm the subtitles are accurate, there is a lot of swearing.

This is the attitude we should be taking here...

(Note that the volume jumps up quite a bit in a couple of them)


View: https://twitter.com/protectheflames/status/1241696164782669824?s=19


----------



## Mo1959 (22 Mar 2020)

View: https://www.facebook.com/JaneyGodley/videos/10158476228314653/UzpfSTEwMDAwMDIxNTU4ODQyMTozMzc4MDI1MTI4ODgxMzA3/


----------



## Mo1959 (22 Mar 2020)

It’s sad how this is affecting things. A local very well known gentleman recently died (not due to the virus) and there is only to be the minister, undertaker and cord bearers allowed at his funeral. The family hope to celebrate his life later.


----------



## Buck (22 Mar 2020)

Household waste site near us has closed this afternoon - "got a phone call to shut immediately and stay shut until further notice" - all sites in the area are closed. No staffing issues at my local site so, I hope this isn't a portent to bin collections being limited/cancelled, hopefully it's more to do with social distancing.


----------



## Buck (22 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> It’s sad how this is affecting things. A local very well known gentleman recently died (not due to the virus) and there is only to be the minister, undertaker and cord bearers allowed at his funeral. The family hope to celebrate his life later.



Totally agree Mo. There will be some families that don't get to grieve in the way we are accustomed to.


----------



## Pale Rider (22 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> In my town, the cafe in the market square appearing to carry on as usual
> View attachment 509799



I suspect the justification will be the drinks on the tables have been sold as takeaways.

There is no ban on consuming a takeaway outside the premises, which the street clearly is.

If you are sitting or standing is irrelevant, as is who owns the seats you may be sitting on.

I think the cafe would be in a weaker position if it owned the outside area on which its seats are situated.

To be clear, I'm not supporting these actions.

They are a disgraceful and selfish attempt from both the cafe and customers to wriggle around the restrictions.


----------



## cosmicbike (22 Mar 2020)

I wonder if cyclists think they are invincible. I, along with missus and 2 teenagers, are on day 5 of 14 self isolating. 2 of us have symptoms. We have 2 dogs which are getting walked by all of us every day, we stay well away from other owners. I've been out on the bike most days, and this morning was amazed at the number of big groups of weekend warriors out, even more so to see them gathering in a café in Addlestone. What is wrong with people?


----------



## Landsurfer (22 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I suspect the justification will be the drinks on the tables have been sold as takeaways.
> 
> There is no ban on consuming a takeaway outside the premises, which the street clearly is.
> 
> ...



Or a reaction to the reality that those dying are massively in the "underlying medical condition" group ... not 100% .. but pretty close ... we are wiping out our society and economy for a virus that may ... just may, .. outstrip the "Winter Flu" virus deaths ...... Millions of jobs lost , thousands of firms closed .. for ever ... for what ???
How many of the deaths in Italy are of under 70 otherwise healthy people ?
Come on Boris ...tell us ...


----------



## Smudge (22 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> Household waste site near us has closed this afternoon - "got a phone call to shut immediately and stay shut until further notice" - all sites in the area are closed. No staffing issues at my local site so, I hope this isn't a portent to bin collections being limited/cancelled, hopefully it's more to do with social distancing.



I've had a garden waste bin delivered last week, our council charges £56 a year for these fortnightly collections. I was due to put it out for the first time this week and it was half full of grass clippings. It wasn't collected, these garden waste collections have now been cancelled with no info from the council when they may start again.


----------



## 8mph (22 Mar 2020)

https://www.sciencedaily.com/.../2018/04/180420122807.htm...
New research overturns a myth that has persisted for nearly four decades -- that competing in endurance sports, like this weekend's London Marathon, suppresses the body's immune system and makes competitors more susceptible to infections 

"Many scientists previously interpreted this fall in immune cells after exercise to be immune-suppression. However strong evidence suggests that this does not mean that cells have been 'lost' or 'destroyed', but rather that they move to other sites in the body that are more likely to become infected, such as the lungs".


----------



## MarkF (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I now think I'm in the middle of a music hall comedy I know nothing about. You can't make this up if you tried the ice-cream van has now arrived in the street .... I give up



Good, take that time out to get a grip. When was the last time you saw a queue at a surburban ice cream van, 1977?


----------



## Johnno260 (22 Mar 2020)

What totally makes me livid is these morons, as let’s be fair that’s the only useable phrase I can use without getting a forum ban will wreck so many efforts that some are doing, example G-Tech and the formula 1 teams.

These same idiots will then blame anyone but their own ridiculous choices.

They also put at risk others and the staff who then care for them, I’m done tolerating anyone like this now.


----------



## Landsurfer (22 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Good, take that time out to get a grip. When was the last time you saw a queue at a surburban ice cream van, 1977?


This afternoon .... 20 meters from our front door ..... all the hunny mummys around here are arranging play dates, sleepovers, trip rosters .... but be honest it will all probably be ok ...


----------



## Landsurfer (22 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> What totally makes me livid is these morons, as let’s be fair that’s the only useable phrase I can use without getting a forum ban will wreck so many efforts that some are doing, example G-Tech and the formula 1 teams.
> 
> These same idiots will then blame anyone but their own ridiculous choices.
> 
> They also put at risk others and the staff who then care for them, I’m done tolerating anyone like this now.


What risk ... how many members of F1 teams are over 70 and have underlying respiratory conditions ???


----------



## MarkF (22 Mar 2020)

I've new information coming tomorrow, what I am to wear, what I am to do and how I have to behave around potential virus patients. Will report back. My guess its that the health care workers are about to suffer.


----------



## Rocky (22 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Or a reaction to the reality that those dying are massively in the "underlying medical condition" group ... not 100% .. but pretty close ... we are wiping out our society and economy for a virus that may ... just may, .. outstrip the "Winter Flu" virus deaths ...... Millions of jobs lost , thousands of firms closed .. for ever ... for what ???
> How many of the deaths in Italy are of under 70 otherwise healthy people ?
> Come on Boris ...tell us ...


If you hold this view you are completely out of step with the world’s leading epidemiologists and most politicians.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> but be honest it will all probably be ok ...



No, it won't. 

Thousands of people will die painful, lonely and terrifying deaths. 

That's not ok.


----------



## pawl (22 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Good, take that time out to get a grip. When was the last time you saw a queue at a surburban ice cream van, 1977?




1948 Ingredients were still in short supply.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Or a reaction to the reality that those dying are massively in the "underlying medical condition" group ... not 100% .. but pretty close ... we are wiping out our society and economy for a virus that may ... just may, .. outstrip the "Winter Flu" virus deaths ...... Millions of jobs lost , thousands of firms closed .. for ever ... for what ???
> How many of the deaths in Italy are of under 70 otherwise healthy people ?
> Come on Boris ...tell us ...



You're suggesting that people over 70 are expendable. 

Nice.


----------



## pawl (22 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> But they need enforced lockdowns or totally harsh penalties for bars, pubs that open, I would fine, prosecute and revoke their license indefinitely.
> I cycled pasts 4 pubs, all open, all packed total idiots all of them.
> This crisis has shown me a large portion of the country are total morons.
> The NHS opening time for Tesco’s was a nice idea but my wife won’t do it again it was more dangerous.


----------



## marinyork (22 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Nah G-Techs prototype ventilator was good news and a smart use of components.



Very promising. Not in production yet. When G-TECH have built 5000 to 10000 ventillators I'll be very happy for them to be my next vacuum cleaner and a non-alcoholic beer in celebration.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> This is a video compilation of several Italian mayors losing the plot at the actions of some of their citizens. I can confirm the subtitles are accurate, there is a lot of swearing.
> 
> This is the attitude we should be taking here...
> 
> ...




Very funny, but also utterly tragic. 

This is our warning. They gave us our chance, and we're ignoring them. *Still* there are people posting here in absolute denial. 

To quote one of the mayors (their capitals)

"WHAT THE fark DO YOU THINK YOU ARE DOING!"


----------



## Rocky (22 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> WHO, FOR GOD SAKE, ARE THESE PEOPLE THAT WILL DIE LONELY .... !!!
> They will be in hospital with superb health care professionals who are already aware of their underlying and long term serious health issues ...
> Thousands of people with underlying health issues die of virus's every winter .... but you don't care in the slightest .... year after year ....


I think you misunderstand the problems of lack of ICU capacity is causing. There are not enough hospital beds in Italy to cope with all the cases. Three hospitals in NW/N London are full as of now. They cannot take in
any more cases.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> WHO, FOR GOD SAKE, ARE THESE PEOPLE THAT WILL DIE LONELY .... !!!
> They will be in hospital with superb health care professionals who are already aware of their underlying and long term serious health issues ...
> Thousands of people with underlying health issues die of virus's every winter .... but you don't care in the slightest .... year after year ....



You're on ignore. I can't cope with your unthinking and callous denial, and will be much better off never reading it again.


----------



## Rocky (22 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> You're on ignore. I can't cope with your unthinking and callous denial, and will be much better off never reading it again.


Good for you. I agree 100%.


----------



## AuroraSaab (22 Mar 2020)

Just seen on a news site that a 36 year old nurse, fit and healthy, no 'underlying illnesses', is in an icu on a ventilator. This 'It's only the elderly.... it'll be like a light flu when I get it..' attitude is infuriating. It might be, but you could pass it to someone for whom it won't. Selfish beyond belief. Until people start losing people they love, I honestly don't think the message will get through.

If you are in an icu with CV19, there will be no loved ones at your bed. My dad died of inhalation pneumonia and it is a horrible way to go - it is not a peaceful passing at all - but at least we were were with him.


----------



## Rusty Nails (22 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Italy numbers seem to be 651 dead today. Slight improvement on yesterday. Another blip like midweek? Or good news at last.


I'd wait to see a consistent downward trend before anticipating good news.


----------



## Levo-Lon (22 Mar 2020)

@AuroraSaab 
Reality of how serious this virus is.
Sadly the only way our young and reckless unbothered will maybe take notice is when a few pop stars die..or a friend on Face Book..who knows it might even be someone they actually know.


Son and family now isolating as daughter in law has a new cough..she is a vet so will have considered the risk and taken temps ect


----------



## Landsurfer (22 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think you misunderstand the problems of lack of ICU capacity is causing. There are not enough hospital beds in Italy to cope with all the cases. Three hospitals in NW/N London are full as of now. They cannot take in
> any more cases.


I am .. very badly .. trying to make the point that that we have 20,000 deaths + most winters from virus based illness .... 
This year we have decided to destroy our entire society for the new wave of virus victims .... 
Where the victims of last years winter virus not worthy ? 
Or the year before , or the year before .. et al .... only this winters victims and ill are worthy .... ??
My mum .. 94 ... with severe respiratory illness, died of flu in the winter of 2017. 
It was her time ... nobody railed against the machine ... it was her time, age, flu or her lungs where going to get her in the end .... 
ACCORDING TO .. reports in the Grauniad and Torygraph underlying issues seem to be ALMOST the norm ...


----------



## Rocky (22 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Sadly the only way our young and reckless unbothered will maybe take notice is when a few pop stars die..or a friend on Face Book..who knows it might even be someone they actually know.
> 
> 
> Son and family now isolating as daughter in law has a new cough..she is a vet so will have considered the risk and taken temps ect


I hope she and the family are OK and get well soon.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Mar 2020)

Cycled through Tatton Park yesterday on the tandem. Always uplifts my spirits. 

Now closed indefinitely. 

http://www.tattonpark.org.uk/what_to_see_and_do/covid-19-update.aspx


----------



## marinyork (22 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I'd wait to see a consistent downward trend before anticipating good news.



It's generally reckoned in Lombardy and ER that people are dying in their homes and not part of those figures - yet, or ever.


----------



## Rocky (22 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> I am .. very badly .. trying to make the point that that we have 20,000 deaths + most winters from virus based illness ....
> This year we have decided to destroy our entire society for the new wave of virus victims ....
> Where the victims of last years winter virus not worthy ?
> Or the year before , or the year before .. et al .... only this winters victims and ill are worthy .... ??
> ...


This is far far worse and more infectious than flu. More people are dying and will dye. This has only just started. There’s a GP surgery down the road from me which is on the verge of closing as nearly 75% of their professional staff have Covid19. This does not happen with flu.


----------



## Rusty Nails (22 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> WHO, FOR GOD SAKE, ARE THESE PEOPLE THAT WILL DIE LONELY .... !!!
> They will be in hospital with superb health care professionals who are already aware of their underlying and long term serious health issues ...
> Thousands of people with underlying health issues die of virus's every winter .... but you don't care in the slightest .... year after year ....



People will not be allowed to have loved ones around them when they are suffering badly and frightened. To any rational, caring person that is seen as being alone.

Your attitude, or, more likely, the attitude you like to put on to be different, sucks. It is not big and it is not clever.


----------



## Johnno260 (22 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> What risk ... how many members of F1 teams are over 70 and have underlying respiratory conditions ???


I said wreck the efforts they're making as in producing ventilators, the inbred morons we have here carry on as normal overload the NHS and the efforts people have made will be for nothing.


----------



## MarkF (22 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> You're suggesting that people over 70 are expendable.
> 
> Nice.


 He did no such thing. He posed a question. Economics and life are intertwined, a global recession may cause more loss of life than the virus


----------



## StuAff (22 Mar 2020)

When our very own @Fab Foodie is symptomatic, and at least one other forumite I know is self-isolating, then frankly that's bad enough for me. This thing will kill thousands, even in best case scenario. And it won't be that best case, because of all the government inaction, and more importantly the selfishness, stupidity & hypocrisy of too many people. Panic buying, absolutely unnecessary travel, refusal to comply with simple, reasonable instructions…kills people. Leaves more people with life-changing injury. Ruins the lives of those remaining. My mum is 79 in a month and a bit. I don't have the luxury of working from home or taking months off. One of these braindead *******s could infect her (or me, and I pass it on)…


----------



## perplexed (22 Mar 2020)

We were booked to go self catering in the West Country in a week or two, but we've cancelled. I emailed the agents to take an option on the place as and when things improve. I don't want to add any stress onto an area which might struggle if things start to get worse and I certainly don't want to be associated with the herds heading out on what looks like a bank holiday

Besides, we'd be more able to contribute to the local economy later when things recover. Makes sense to me. 

Anyway, the huge tub of paint which is lurking under the stairs won't fling itself at the living room walls...


----------



## MarkF (22 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Mark we will also revisit your posts where you called this the hysteria virus. Let’s see whether you still take that line in a month’s time.



I doubt anything will change, my thoughts have always been the same, that the reaction to the virus threat (economically) might have a human cost more than the virus itself. I do hope that I am wrong. But the economic and subsequent future human cost is entirely ignored in this thread.


----------



## Rocky (22 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> I doubt anything will change, my thoughts have always been that the same, that the reaction to the virus threat (economically) might have a human cost more than the virus itself. I do hope that I am wrong.


How much do you put on a human life?


----------



## marinyork (22 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Think you might need 6 months or probably a year.



You are likely to have 2000 to 5000 deaths in the UK by the end of April. These are old estimates. Based on newer madrid or italy data if the UK gets a nasty cluster it may go higher. And the great social mixing experiment this weekend.


----------



## Johnno260 (22 Mar 2020)

No one is saying flu deaths each year are acceptable, and every winter the NHS struggles its massively under funded and mis managed. 

But that won't fix the issues now, more members of the public being responsible will in the short term, we can talk about funding and management when this is over. 

Until then we should all be doing the most to protect and support our key workers


----------



## MarkF (22 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> How much do you put on a human life?


Is a world recession worth one human life? Nope. A 100? Nope. 10,000? Nope. I dunno, what figure would you put on it?


----------



## Rusty Nails (22 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Is a world recession worth one human life? Nope. A 100? Nope. 10,000? Nope. I dunno, what figure would you put on it?



You seem to be the one who is constantly referring to the value of lives vs a recession. Why doesn't the oracle give us his opinion?


----------



## Julia9054 (22 Mar 2020)

Son no 2 just applied for a job at Lidl. He had to adapt his cv somewhat. It has a professional head shot of him with his instrument, a list of recent notable performances and under „other skills“ it says „magician, escape artist, singer and actor“
Perhaps not quite relevant for a shelf stacker!


----------



## marinyork (22 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Son no 2 just applied for a job at Lidl. He had to adapt his cv somewhat. It has a professional head shot of him with his instrument, a list of recent notable performances and under „other skills“ it says „magician, escape artist, singer and actor“
> Perhaps not quite relevant for a shelf stacker!



Completely relevant. Especially the magician and actor bit.


----------



## MarkF (22 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> You seem to be the one who is constantly referring to the value of lives vs a recession. Why doesn't the oracle give us his opinion?


Well, less than the virus directly causes would be good. Not that I've constantly referred to lives v recession nor said that nurses were well paid @tom73. What's your opinion/figure?


----------



## Rocky (22 Mar 2020)

If you want to listen to anyone, probably better to listen to these experts:


View: https://twitter.com/drdamiandowney/status/1241799333835571202?s=21


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Well, less than the virus directly causes would be good. Not that I've constantly referred to lives v recession nor said that nurses were well paid @tom73. What's your opinion/figure?


Recessions don't kill, though, inequitable distribution does.


----------



## Mugshot (22 Mar 2020)

McDonalds closing all restaurants by 7pm tomorrow.

https://www.mcdonalds.com/gws-newsroom/gb/en-gb/2020/3/see_you_soon.html


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

Right i’m going to pick my words carefully. 
To all the braindead who think this is a game it’s not. Most who get this virus 4 out 5 are ok without any medical help. So one out of 5 will need help. The same is true for the at risk group. If you want to try and find out if your the one then fine. Just don’t risk everyone else in the process.

I’m not the only one on here who has a wife or other close relation. Who now finds themselves on the front line. About to face lord knows what having to deal with not just a single one in five but rooms full. Not for one of but day after day. They are putting there life at risk to keep every one safe Inc you. Equally I won’t be the only one who finds your outright disregard for them beyond believe. 

If you become a member of the one in five club they will care for you unlike when you had chance to care for them.

Others inc me have already this but let’s have another go for you. Respiratory failure is not quick , pain free or peaceful way to die. 
With the numbers already happening your likely to die alone and staff won’t have time to hold your hand and make you feel safe or indeed sadly pain free. You may think your well and be fine even if you do join the club. But the body when already feeling crap from illness often don’t need much of weekness how ever small. To turn a minor illness into something worse. 
So like I say go ahead and try it but don’t treat rest of us as lab rats or expect the likes of my wife to care a flying pig about you.


----------



## Buck (22 Mar 2020)

Here’s a view on the rates between the UK and Italy:-

_Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England Dr Jenny Harries also warns against a "direct comparison" between virus case rates in Italy and the UK, saying this should be done with "caution".

She says that the case fatality rate is around 10% in Italy, as opposed to 4% in the UK - but it depends how cases are counted. 

She says there are differences in testing, with more serious cases being tested in the UK, for example. 

She adds that they feel the eventual mortality rate for the virus will be around 1%._


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Mar 2020)




----------



## PK99 (22 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Right i’m going to pick my words carefully.
> To all the braindead who think this is a game it’s not. Most who get this virus 4 out 5 are ok without any medical help. So one out of 5 will need help. The same is true for the at risk group. If you want to try and find out if your the one then fine. Just don’t risk everyone else in the process.
> 
> I’m not the only one on here who has a wife or other close relation. Who now finds themselves on the front line. About to face lord knows what having to deal with not just a single one in five but rooms full. Not for one of but day after day. They are putting there life at risk to keep every one safe Inc you. Equally I won’t be the only one who finds your outright disregard for them beyond believe.
> ...



My wife is upstairs, quarantined since Tuesday.

I've been ok. 

Till today.

Currently running temp of 37.3C and rising.
Breathing heavy, feeling achy.
I was told by my chest consultant 6 months ago the I cannot afford any more catastrophic chest infections. 
Hence the cocktail of drugs I am on and antibiotic rescue packs I carry.

If it is Covid-19 and I go into hospital in the next few days, I do not expect to come out.


----------



## fossyant (22 Mar 2020)

All the best @PK99.


----------



## tom73 (22 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> My wife is upstairs, quarantined since Tuesday.
> 
> I've been ok.
> 
> ...



Oh mate that is grim keep warm , keep up your fluids , eat what you can and continue with your meds unless they tell you otherwise. I so hope it’s not this virus stay positive and stay strong. Many one here will feel the same.
Good luck


----------



## Rezillo (22 Mar 2020)

Landsurfer said:


> Or a reaction to the reality that those dying are massively in the "underlying medical condition" group ... not 100% .. but pretty close ... we are wiping out our society and economy for a virus that may ... just may, .. outstrip the "Winter Flu" virus deaths ...... Millions of jobs lost , thousands of firms closed .. for ever ... for what ???
> How many of the deaths in Italy are of under 70 otherwise healthy people ?
> Come on Boris ...tell us ...



http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

Over 44,000 cases analysed, 33% of deaths had no comorbidity. Take a look at Table 1, plenty of young people there.

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

The thousands of cases quoted for winter flu are a media confusion over excess winter death figures, not helped by the ONS press release.

Italy is seeing more than our entire winter flu season deaths every single day. I would have thought it blindingly obvious that what Italy and other countries are experiencing is nothing like a bad flu season in the UK.


----------



## Mo1959 (22 Mar 2020)

One of the UK deaths was only 18, so age is no protection.


----------



## kingrollo (22 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> My wife is upstairs, quarantined since Tuesday.
> 
> I've been ok.
> 
> ...


Good luck mate.


----------



## StuAff (22 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> My wife is upstairs, quarantined since Tuesday.
> 
> I've been ok.
> 
> ...


Hoping for the best.


----------



## gavroche (22 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> One of the UK deaths was only 18, so age is no protection.


It is sad but he did have underlying health problems. Far too young though.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> My wife is upstairs, quarantined since Tuesday.
> 
> I've been ok.
> 
> ...




Best of luck mate - I'm sure you'll fight it off


----------



## kingrollo (22 Mar 2020)

gavroche said:


> It is sad but he did have underlying health problems. Far too young though.


What does that mean though ? - He puffs an inhaler twice a day ?


----------



## gavroche (22 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What does that mean though ? - He puffs an inhaler twice a day ?


Don't know, they didn't specify on the news.


----------



## DCLane (22 Mar 2020)

Look after yourself @PK99 and GWS @Fab Foodie 

SWMBO is dealing with some of the issues already coming from this, working in the NHS and on the frontline. I'm seeing the effect on her already - we're trying to help her to switch off, she's doing nothing in the house, washing clothes seperately, sleeping in a seperate room, etc. as I've got major asthma issues and if I catch it at present I'll probably not survive.

What's not been considered to date is the post-traumatic stress that NHS staff, paramedics, pharmacists and others will have. They're a tough bunch but will need support afterwards for years to come.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Mar 2020)

gavroche said:


> he did have underlying health problems.



So what?


----------



## MarkF (22 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> My wife is upstairs, quarantined since Tuesday.
> 
> I've been ok.
> 
> ...



I really hope you get better soon. My work colleague went down on Friday, hope to see him well again too. Best of luck PK.


----------



## MarkF (22 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> Look after yourself @PK99 and GWS @Fab Foodie
> 
> SWMBO is dealing with some of the issues already coming from this, working in the NHS and on the frontline. I'm seeing the effect on her already - we're trying to help her to switch off, she's doing nothing in the house, washing clothes seperately, sleeping in a seperate room, etc. as I've got major asthma issues and if I catch it at present I'll probably not survive.
> 
> What's not been considered to date is the post-traumatic stress that NHS staff, paramedics, pharmacists and others will have. They're a tough bunch but will need support afterwards for years to come.


That's what affected my colleague, his underlying asthma issues. I don't take my uniform home, l bag it and have it laundered. But l don't have enough kit so will be wearing scrubs tomorrow.Take care.


----------



## Mo1959 (22 Mar 2020)

It’s really hitting home and getting scary now. I know I only know you guys virtually but all the best to anyone suffering. Wishing you a speedy recovery with no complications.


----------



## Julia9054 (22 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What does that mean though ? - He puffs an inhaler twice a day ?


Yeah - thanks for assuming asthma is trivial


----------



## kingrollo (22 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Yeah - thanks for assuming asthma is trivial



I didn't mean to trivialise asthma - I have it myself - I take my inhalers and other than cycling uphill - my asthma bothers me not one jot......I consider my fit and healthy - but if I croaked it within the next couple of months I'd be lumped in with underlying health conditions - which in practical terms I don't have.


----------



## gavroche (22 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So what?


That is the reason that caused his death sadly.


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

Bazzer said:


> A la carte menu and bar snacks apparently, according to the newsletter delivered to our house.
> Seems to me go against the PM's announcement a couple of days ago, but I shan't be going.


Crazy.


----------



## randynewmanscat (22 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> I doubt anything will change, my thoughts have always been the same, that the reaction to the virus threat (economically) might have a human cost more than the virus itself. I do hope that I am wrong. But the economic and subsequent future human cost is entirely ignored in this thread.


There are posts in the thread concerning the cost to the national economy.


Landsurfer said:


> This afternoon .... 20 meters from our front door ..... all the hunny mummys around here are arranging play dates, sleepovers, trip rosters .... but be honest it will all probably be ok ...


I'll be honest, I don't have a clue. I'm not a gambling man by nature so I defer to you on your statement that it will all probably be OK. I hope it will.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Very funny, but also utterly tragic.
> 
> This is our warning. They gave us our chance, and we're ignoring them. *Still* there are people posting here in absolute denial.
> 
> ...


You won't need to implore anybody here in 14 days.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> What is the % chance of Coronavirus pandemic taking hold in UK? Low. But not zero


100%.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> I would look at the response of the government in China and ask why would they have taken strong action.



Bored with owning all of the money in the world they decided to blow some of the one trillion $ owed to them by the US on some pop up very large medical facilities and shut their economy down just for laughs.


----------



## Fab Foodie (23 Mar 2020)

@PK99 Grim news....fingers crossed.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

gavroche said:


> That is the reason that caused his death sadly.



Ah, not coronavirus then, without which he would not have died.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

The lessons from Italy that we're ignoring. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...le-to-convince-citizens-of-coronavirus-crisis


----------



## newfhouse (23 Mar 2020)

Australian but equally true here. 
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ager-who-cant-get-the-message-out-dont-go-out


----------



## DaveReading (23 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I didn't mean to trivialise asthma - I have it myself - I take my inhalers and other than cycling uphill - my asthma bothers me not one jot......I consider my fit and healthy - but if I croaked it within the next couple of months I'd be lumped in with underlying health conditions - which in practical terms I don't have.



Out of (personal) interest, has anyone seen evidence regarding how severe asthma needs to be before it increases one's susceptibility to the effects of the coronavirus ?


----------



## Rocky (23 Mar 2020)

I’m hearing from my son, via his medical friends, that a number of doctors in London have been mugged at knifepoint and had their NHS badges stolen.

These are doctors who have completed long shifts and have left the hospital wearing their NHS id badges round their necks.

I’m struggling to think of anything more disgusting.


----------



## Rocky (23 Mar 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Out of (personal) interest, has anyone seen evidence regarding how severe asthma needs to be before it increases one's susceptibility to the effects of the coronavirus ?


The Prof says that this is not formal medical advice but....

you need to know what your maximum peak flow is. Then if you drop below 75% of this then you should ring NHS 111. Similarly if you can’t finish your sentences without getting short of breath ring 111. The asthma UK website has some good advice on this.

I hope you are ok. Stay safe.


----------



## Julia9054 (23 Mar 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Out of (personal) interest, has anyone seen evidence regarding how severe asthma needs to be before it increases one's susceptibility to the effects of the coronavirus ?


Severe asthma is defined as having asthma attacks which may put you in hospital despite preventer and reliever drugs. Hard to control asthma is someone who has attacks/ takes steroid tablets. All those people are expecting an NHS letter this week.
If you have any sort of asthma that means that normal colds/flu make your asthma worse then this virus will do the same with the potential to land you in hospital. 
Whilst I do not fall into the 2 categories above, my asthma is inhaled steroid dependent. I am not self isolating but I am taking my condition seriously. See asthma society website for advice


----------



## Julia9054 (23 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The Prof says that this is not formal medical advice but....
> 
> you need to know what your maximum peak flow is. Then if you drop below 75% of this then you should ring NHS 111. Similarly if you can’t finish your sentences without getting short of breath ring 111. The asthma UK website has some good advice on this.
> 
> I hope you are ok. Stay safe.


Just ordered myself a new peak flow meter. Mine is old and gives different readings to the one at my GP surgery so I suspect it's no longer calibrated properly


----------



## DCLane (23 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Whilst I do not fall into the 2 categories above, my asthma is inhaled steroid dependent. I am not self isolating but I am taking my condition seriously. See asthma society website for advice



I'm similar Julia but currently on support medication as I'm unwell. Got ill, thought I'd recovered and was hit by a car then did a couple of TT's. Slowly recovering so being extremely careful.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Asthma can also be underdiagnosed or changes over time so please listen to your bodies and signs, daily cycles of asthma, trends and tools and talk to medics if needed.

If still worried beyond what has been said by medics when said this is relatively all right then talk to someone else about health anxiety.


----------



## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m hearing from my son, via his medical friends, that a number of doctors in London have been mugged at knifepoint and had their NHS badges stolen.
> 
> These are doctors who have completed long shifts and have left the hospital wearing their NHS id badges round their necks.
> 
> I’m struggling to think of anything more disgusting.



I am also struggling to think of what worth the badge would be to the muggers,

It would allow you to impersonate a doctor, but only in a very limited way.

You could probably get away with waving it at a bored security guard as you passed, but any more detailed check would swiftly reveal the deception.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m hearing from my son, via his medical friends, that a number of doctors in London have been mugged at knifepoint and had their NHS badges stolen.
> 
> These are doctors who have completed long shifts and have left the hospital wearing their NHS id badges round their necks.
> 
> I’m struggling to think of anything more disgusting.



WTF it's beyond believe are HCP's really worth nothing anymore ?


----------



## Rocky (23 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I am also struggling to think of what worth the badge would be to the muggers,
> 
> It would allow you to impersonate a doctor, but only in a very limited way.
> 
> You could probably get away with waving it at a bored security guard as you passed, but any more detailed check would swiftly reveal the deception.


His colleagues think it’s so people can get access to supermarkets and food rather than gaining entry to the hospital. I’m struggling to get my head round this.....is it really that difficult to get food?


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

That's my thought too. 
Great to see a live is worth a few extra bog rolls. 
Just stop it people it's not worth it.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

It will be. If anyone takes the 1.5 million letters to supermarkets then those letters will get nicked I'd imagine too.


----------



## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m hearing from my son, via his medical friends, that a number of doctors in London have been mugged at knifepoint and had their NHS badges stolen.
> 
> These are doctors who have completed long shifts and have left the hospital wearing their NHS id badges round their necks.
> 
> I’m struggling to think of anything more disgusting.



It may well be true, but I'd be wary of automatically believing stories that have passed through a few people, we all know how chinese whispers work. Especially in times like these.
Would have thought that something as despicable as that would have been widely reported.


----------



## Rocky (23 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> It may well be true, but I'd be wary of automatically believing stories that have passed through a few people, we all know how chinese whispers work. Especially in times like these.
> Would have thought that something as despicable as that would have been widely reported.


It happened to one of his mates at UCLH. The messages that the junior doctors are sending via their WhatsApp group is to warn each other. They are not to flame things.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

If you still find this hard to understand than watch this. 
If you went out yesterday as if it was bank holiday Monday or down the pub for one last party. 
You may have now infected 59,000 other people. 
If we act now the NHS can save lives. 
No health service in the world no matter how much money it has can possibly cope with a mass number of critical ill people. 
The NHS will try but it won't and can't do this without everyone helping them. 
Real hard clinical decision are made everyday but once this get's going they will have to be made on mass and quickly. 
They may have to make one about you. 


View: https://twitter.com/caitlinmoran/status/1241852210386001923?s=20


----------



## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> His colleagues think it’s so people can get access to supermarkets and food rather than gaining entry to the hospital. I’m struggling to get my head round this.....is it really that difficult to get food?



Good thought, not least because in those circumstances the check is likely to be even less thorough.

I've seen a couple of saddos over the years who were not out for obvious gain or to cause harm, but just wanted to be seen as at the heart of things, important, to be listened to.

All the things they didn't normally get.

An example is the woman who pretended to be a 9/11 victim.

There was a guy near me who pretended to be a solicitor at magistrates' court.

He got away with it for a while, doing two or three minor cases.

Part of the (reluctantly advanced) mitigation was that he'd done a good job of the cases, so his victims had suffered no disadvantage.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> If you still find this hard to understand than watch this.



Another poster on here put up a guardian article here about lessons learned from Italy.

The article is all right, all if getting a little bit misty eyed and vague, but an improvement on a couple of other articles I've seen that said the 11 municipalities behaved. 

The pass it onto to three people message, not mentioned in the article, was actually one that started to appear on italian tv a couple of days after national lockdown and repeated quite a lot.


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> If you still find this hard to understand than watch this.
> If you went out yesterday as if it was bank holiday Monday or down the pub for one last party.
> You may have now infected 59,000 other people.
> If we act now the NHS can save lives.
> ...



The pub bit of that a reference to Friday?
They have all been shut since Friday night haven't they?


----------



## Julia9054 (23 Mar 2020)

https://www.asthma.org.uk/advice/triggers/coronavirus-covid-19/
For all the asthmatics on here. Advice updated yesterday. Turns out I am in the very high risk group despite being ridiculously fit and healthy.
Bollocks!


----------



## Pat "5mph" (23 Mar 2020)

*Mod Note:*
Some trolling/abusive/fake news posts a few pages back have been deleted.
Sadly I had to cull a few of the reasonable responses too, because they quoted deleted posts.
The Mods team does not usually divulge mods actions, but, I'm from Italy, I cannot accept blatantly incorrect statememnts like:



Landsurfer said:


> WHO, FOR GOD SAKE, ARE THESE PEOPLE THAT WILL DIE LONELY .... !!!
> *They will be in hospital with superb health care professionals who are already aware of their underlying and long term serious health issues ...*


Thread ban for Landsurfer.




Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m struggling to get my head round this.....is it really that difficult to get food?


Sadly, yes, in my area at least.
Unless you can rustle up meals from random ingredients.


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> The pub bit of that a reference to Friday?
> They have all been shut since Friday night haven't they?


Not all, some have continued trading, was specifically stated by Sturgeon in her press conference yesterday


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Not all, some have continued trading, was specifically stated by Sturgeon in her press conference yesterday


is that because Boris's pronouncement didn't strictly apply north of the border?
Honest question.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> https://www.asthma.org.uk/advice/triggers/coronavirus-covid-19/
> For all the asthmatics on here. Advice updated yesterday. Turns out I am in the very high risk group despite being ridiculously fit and healthy.
> Bollocks!



The DCMO covered this yesterday saying that the number of letters going out was very large and that the net was being overcautious to protect people and that some would be surprised, but not to be alarmed. They also said that there might be some duplication of letters from different bits of the health service to make sure they make contact. 

Someone pregnant I know various people had said that in general there is a risk of complications with flu and so ordinarily it's on the list was then understandably quite upset initially when Witty changed the guidance on Monday, I think it was, and said pretty much the same thing.


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m hearing from my son, via his medical friends, that a number of doctors in London have been mugged at knifepoint and had their NHS badges stolen.
> 
> These are doctors who have completed long shifts and have left the hospital wearing their NHS id badges round their necks.
> 
> I’m struggling to think of anything more disgusting.


Also reports this morning of ambulances having their tyres drilled.

Coronavirus Kent: Six ambulances have holes drilled in tyres in overnight attack in Ramsgate


----------



## alicat (23 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> I've been ok.
> 
> Till today.



Thinking of you, @PK99.


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Sadly, yes, in my area at least.
> Unless you can rustle up meals from random ingredients.



Well I am for one am all agog/agag waiting for @Mo1959 to start her cookery column - listings of daily concocted food.

Italians in my experience are excellent at using basic ingredients - cramped only by a certain decorum/anally retentive ideas about what can go with what.

Combine the Italian talent for cooking from basic natural ingredients with the Brit willingness to say - why not/just shovel it in/who cares/might be interesting and I see the birth of an entirely new cuisine and a physically and mentally healthier population in both countries.

Result.


----------



## Mo1959 (23 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Well I am for one am all agog/agag waiting for @Mo1959 to start her cookery column - listings of daily concocted food.


I'll have you know I chopped up a whole banana and put it on my Weetabix this morning!


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I'll have you know I chopped up a whole banana and put it on my Weetabix this morning!


Well, progress - Recipe 1.

I did the other day ponder the possibilities of couscous and custard but was restrained by the fact that my milk supplies are low - normally because of my bike shopping patterns I have maybe well over a months suppy of long life milk on top of the fridge but been away a lot lately so very low stocks - milk being reserved for massive espresso intake.


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> is that because Boris's pronouncement didn't strictly apply north of the border?
> Honest question.


No idea. People on here have says they saw pubs open yesterday I assume not only in Scotland

I think more likely down to pubs being ignorant twunks and trying it on


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Well I am for one am all agog/agag waiting for @Mo1959 to start her cookery column - listings of daily concocted food.
> 
> Italians in my experience are excellent at using basic ingredients - cramped only by a certain decorum/anally retentive ideas about what can go with what.
> 
> ...


Maybe this could be a new thread  not really current affairs?


----------



## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2020)

Speaking of food, is anyone thinking about going for a last McDonalds?

I was, but irritatingly I just don't feel hungry - I can normally wolf down a breakfast muffin burger without a second thought.

Mention of McDonalds on here usually leads to some knee jerk abuse of the company and the quality of their food.

But they've always taken a nicely laid back attitude when I've wanted to use their premises as an office - never any pressure to buy stuff.

On a more serious note, the drive through has been something of a life saver for me a few times during my illness.

It's a good option when you lack the energy to buy ingredients and cook them, and even lack the energy to walk into a normal takeaway.

I don't kid myself the stuff is in any way healthier than any other takeaway, but another benefit is I reckon it is at least hygienically prepared.

I've seen a few takeaways prosecuted under food hygiene regs, but never a McDonalds.


----------



## ozboz (23 Mar 2020)

:





This is a special trolley designed for the R Sole Family


----------



## Adam4868 (23 Mar 2020)

Went for a ride on my own yesterday,plenty of places open around Lancashire/fylde...anyone from this area will know this place !

View: https://twitter.com/henryiddon/status/1241773491097042945?s=19


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## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

no I don't though i ride a fair bit in those parts.
Madness.
I haven't shopped for well over a week to avoid standing in line in a supermarket carpark or for a till. why anyone would do that for ice-cream is beyond me.


----------



## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

Ooh the sun's out..... must have an ice cream. Much more important than catching a life threatening virus.


----------



## Dave7 (23 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> It may well be true, but I'd be wary of automatically believing stories that have passed through a few people, we all know how chinese whispers work. Especially in times like these.
> Would have thought that something as despicable as that would have been widely reported.


Very true Smudge. I learned many years to take things with a large spoonful of salt unless from a reliable source


----------



## Rocky (23 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Very true Smudge. I learned many years to take things with a large spoonful of salt unless from a reliable source


The report came from one of my son’s consultants. He was mugged yesterday. The man in question wanted to warn colleagues. He did not want to spend time talking to the media. In this case, it is from a reliable source. Although it’s up to you whether you count me as a reliable source.


----------



## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> No idea. People on here have says they saw pubs open yesterday I assume not only in Scotland
> 
> I think more likely down to pubs being ignorant twunks and trying it on



The order to which Boris referred applies only to England and Wales.

However, in such circumstances there is an expectation that Scotland will pass a shadow order, which it almost inevitably will have done.

The England and Wales order was done remarkably quickly, devised for announcement on Friday, implemented at 2pm on Saturday.

That's some pace, particularly for government, so it may be Scotland found itself a few hours behind.

Penalty for breach looks to be licence removal and an unlimited fine.

The fine could be anything from fifty quid up, but if ever prosecutions qualified for deterrent sentences, it will be the first few of these.


----------



## Dave7 (23 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> no I don't though i ride a fair bit in those parts.
> Madness.
> I haven't shopped for well over a week to avoid standing in line in a supermarket carpark or for a till. why anyone would do that for ice-cream is beyond me.


I have just been to Aldi. Very orderly. Everyone being polite. Plenty of veg, bread and even bog rolls. Sadly no alcohol though........no whisky, vodka or brandy etcBOJO never said it would get that bad.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> No idea. People on here have says they saw pubs open yesterday I assume not only in Scotland
> 
> I think more likely down to pubs being ignorant twunks and trying it on


As far as I understand it, the closing pubs advice has no legal status. Scotland has now remedied this and no doubt will be enforcing it. England and Wales will get there too at some point, no doubt.

EDIT: Last sentence is outdated, apparently, according to @Pale Rider above.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Also reports this morning of ambulances having their tyres drilled.
> 
> Coronavirus Kent: Six ambulances have holes drilled in tyres in overnight attack in Ramsgate



What the actual... Why?


----------



## ozboz (23 Mar 2020)

Yep , I wonder if they had a flake and raspberry toppings on their ‘corono-cones !


----------



## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The report came from one of my son’s consultants. He was mugged yesterday. The man in question wanted to warn colleagues. He did not want to spend time talking to the media. In this case, it is from a reliable source. Although it’s up to you whether you count me as a reliable source.



You said a number of doctors in London have been mugged at knifepoint and had their NHS badges stolen.
Not 'a doctor'


----------



## Milkfloat (23 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> :
> View attachment 509918
> 
> This is a special trolley designed for the R Sole Family


That is pretty much where I would like to shove it.


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> I have just been to Aldi. Very orderly. Everyone being polite. Plenty of veg, bread and even bog rolls. Sadly no alcohol though........no whisky, vodka or brandy etcBOJO never said it would get that bad.


support your corner shop by buying there and you'll have contact with fewer people


----------



## Rocky (23 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> You said a number of doctors in London have been mugged at knifepoint and had their NHS badges stolen.
> Not 'a doctor'


That’s true, that was one case that I had a personal contact with, as he was my son’s boss, there are others too which I believe ....but hey ho ignore what I’ve said. It matters little to me - you and I are just men on the internet.


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Speaking of food, is anyone thinking about going for a last McDonalds?
> 
> I was, but irritatingly I just don't feel hungry - I can normally wolf down a breakfast muffin burger without a second thought.
> 
> ...


On another serious note, I suspect that McDonalds has an awful lot of staff that are on zero or very low contracted hours.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Or instead of hiding the panic, PPE/ventilator/ICU shortages and fire-fighting going on right now in London hospitals, they are broadcast for all to see. Nurses in Northwick Park, the hospital that went critical two days ago, are wearing bin bags to protect themselves.
> 
> The chart below is enough to send a chill down my spine. This is ft's update of their fatalities chart, but previously no markers were placed where and when nationwide lockdowns were implemented, now they are with a star. See when China applied their draconian measures and how long it took their number to tail off? Then consider our measures - we have a looong way to go.
> 
> ...



This is quite a late one but there's a reason for the late reply.

Sky news has been using this chart from time to time the last 24 hours. Myself personally I'm not particularly a visual communicator I know that Italy has implemented three lock downs and another three substantial restrictions and when they happened. If it helps others then why not.

On a technical point there are a couple of reasons why the government may not particularly like using it. The DCMO got drawn a little bit too much, in an answer to a question, to talking about the case rates, the death rates in Italy and here someone partially quoted what they said. I'm not quite sure why the PHE/government view focuses on this a bit too much. It may be that the government side is worried about criticism (although there's a flippant answer to that and that if they are worried about how the death rates appears to the media, if we get our testing regime frigging sorted it'll look better). Another technical point the DCMO alluded to that hasn't been picked up, it is generally reckoned that in bits of Italy particularly 5 or 6 provinces people are dying at home and so not part of the hospital numbers and not part of the death count (in the UK this isn't happening). Sadly, this is very plausible. One of the interesting bits in different bits of Italy is people have said they hear 'fewer ambulances in these days'. That could mean the virus is under control, or it could just mean that they aren't taking people to hospital.

In terms of communicating to the public, I feel that Boris does a particularly poor job on this one. The best team to communicate it at press conferences is probably DCMO Jenny Harries. You could also draft in Queenie at some point.

In terms of what's in the content as on this forum a lot of people in government are in highly professional jobs, are in the position of being privileged, very powerful, having their opinions listened to and so go off on one and think the public are morons. This tends to lead to being quite vague as is seen in some press conferences - not knocking having an epidemic curve in an early press conference it was good, but it was the verbal said that was good and not the graphics! The public understand what an exponential curve is, contrary to what particularly 5 or 6 people on this forum think. The alternative theory is that people think keep it simple (which has also been discussed on this thread). Content needs to focus on the specifics of social distancing. As said just yelling social distancing to everything doesn't work. It's one that many countries have grappled with as they've imposed numeric bans on groups of 50 or in Germany yesterday more than 2. A 5 minute video that is repeated throughout the day with medics, queenie, DCMO, videos and graphics and clearer advice is what's needed. Press conferences although useful just appeal to the vanity of politicians and journalists.

Lastly the person who goes most 'off message' from a politician's point of view, but not a scientific or reasonable one is DCMO Jenny Harries. The mental health side is clearly important to the medics and scientists. This isn't coming across to a society or media that's only really starting to talk about it. It's because it's something at societal level we're very bad at.


----------



## DCLane (23 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> https://www.asthma.org.uk/advice/triggers/coronavirus-covid-19/
> For all the asthmatics on here. Advice updated yesterday. Turns out I am in the very high risk group despite being ridiculously fit and healthy.



The same


----------



## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> On another serious note, I suspect that McDonalds has an awful lot of staff that are on zero or very low contracted hours.



Apparently, because those zero hours contracts go through McDonalds' PAYE books, the staff will qualify for Rishi's 80 percent salary payment.

Further, McDonalds is paying the zero contract staff full average pay until early next month to give the paperwork time to catch up.

I've mentioned this before, but I've made 'friends' with some of the table clearing ladies while I've been taking up space in the dining area.

A couple of them told me McDonalds is a good company to work for, certainly compared to the factory assembly jobs they used to do.

I wasn't too surprised about that, some of those places were little more than workhouses.


----------



## Edwardoka (23 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/YourSouthend/status/1242019979572191232


The old maxim about not attributing to malice that which can be satisfactorily explained by incompetence seems applicable, but seriously - what did they expect would happen if they cut timetables without putting any concrete, enforceable travel restrictions in place?


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Apparently, because those zero hours contracts go through McDonalds' PAYE books, the staff will qualify for Rishi's 80 percent salary payment.
> 
> Further, McDonalds is paying the zero contract staff full average pay until early next month to give the paperwork time to catch up.
> 
> ...


I've not said they were a bad employer.
80% of salary will be based on average earnings? Do you know over what period?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

New govt guidance on travelling and holidays


----------



## Adam4868 (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> On another serious note, I suspect that McDonalds has an awful lot of staff that are on zero or very low contracted hours.


Why give notice,should have just shut immediately.Imagine how many people will go there today before the shut down.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> The pub bit of that a reference to Friday?
> They have all been shut since Friday night haven't they?


Yes your right 
Though some pubs are still trying to staying open which the police are fully aware of and are dealing with.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> support your corner shop by buying there and you'll have contact with fewer people


Tried, this is not working for me.
My local shop, apart from being mainly an off sales, has been full of folks ignoring the social distancing rule.
Even the owners are not complying, in spite of me having told them it's dangerous for them.
We are behind: in Germany shops workers have a shield in front of the tills, most are card only, there are distance markings on the floors.
Here, nothing.
Hairdressers are still open.
Small shops are still open, there is no way to follow the social distance rule unless each and everyone of us are aware and complying.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (23 Mar 2020)

The


Mugshot said:


> I've not said they were a bad employer.
> 80% of salary will be based on average earnings? Do you know over what period?



According to the Beeb, staff will get full pay for their scheduled hours.

“The chain said staff employed directly by the company would receive full pay for their scheduled hours until 5 April.​​By that time it expects the government's financial aid package, announced on Friday, to have kicked in, with staff paid 80% of their wages.​​A spokeswoman told the BBC she expected McDonald's franchises, which decide their own pay policies, to follow suit.”​


----------



## Dave7 (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> support your corner shop by buying there and you'll have contact with fewer people


What corner shop??


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> The
> 
> 
> According to the Beeb, staff will get full pay for their scheduled hours.
> ...


That's it. 
So if you're on a Zero hours contract, what would you get 80% of?


----------



## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

Ours and many other countries are going to be so broken financially after all this. I cant imagine how long it will take to get back to anywhere like before.
2008 crash.... austerity..... you aint seen nothing yet.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Speaking of food, is anyone thinking about going for a last McDonalds?
> 
> I was, but irritatingly I just don't feel hungry - I can normally wolf down a breakfast muffin burger without a second thought.
> 
> ...



I know the Police have been making good use of McD free food for NHS and emergency service staff before they close. 
Plenty has been backing it way back to the station over night. 
Mrs 73 only went for a drink and ended up with a free breakfast. She'd just finished a night shift so will let her off


----------



## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I've not said they were a bad employer.
> 80% of salary will be based on average earnings? Do you know over what period?



I didn't say you said they are a bad employer, but by bringing zero hours contracts into it, you seemed to be inferring being on zero hours would count against the employee in this instance.

As with so many of the bolder statements made on here, a little research reveals there's more to it.

I believe the wages are being paid until the first week of April, perhaps until the new financial year.

Not long, but deemed to be long enough for the 80 percent salary scheme to kick in for those that qualify for it.

The table clearing ladies also told me the zero hours contracts suited them, which surprised me because I thought zero hours contracts were universally a bad thing.

I think they suit some of the younger employees in particular, but I'm sure @Pat "5mph" has posted she was happy working on one.



deptfordmarmoset said:


> As far as I understand it, the closing pubs advice has no legal status. Scotland has now remedied this and no doubt will be enforcing it. England and Wales will get there too at some point, no doubt.
> 
> EDIT: Last sentence is outdated, apparently, according to @Pale Rider above.



Looks like a pub in Glasgow has been shut for virus opening using existing police powers to close any disorderly house.

Mention is made of specific law on the virus to be passed in Scotland 'within a few days'.

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5413995/greenock-pub-cheers-shut-down-police/


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Tried, this is not working for me.
> My local shop, apart from being mainly an off sales, has been full of folks ignoring the social distancing rule.
> Even the owners are not complying, in spite of me having told them it's dangerous for them.
> We are behind: in Germany shops workers have a shield in front of the tills, most are card only, there are distance markings on the floors.
> ...



Mixed here. Distance markings appearing on quite a lot of floors. Others nothing. A number of places took card only (cafes and pubs well before closure- they are now closed anyway)

Small shops stayed open very, very late in Italy, they were open after the national lockdown.


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> What corner shop??


Must be one you can drive to?


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> I have just been to Aldi. Very orderly. Everyone being polite. Plenty of veg, bread and even bog rolls. Sadly no alcohol though........no whisky, vodka or brandy etcBOJO never said it would get that bad.


thanks for the update - fits with the trend I have been watching - my shopping can easily await until the back end of next week.

I did yesterday stroll, distancing, round my local sainsburys.
Tiny scraps of more exotic pasta left, no rice apart from those barmy individual portion microwave packs - but at least signs of improvement.
Beer and wine aisles largely stripped - following pub closures I suppose.
No shortage of some artisinal raspberry vodka - folk retaining some sort of sense.


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Tried, this is not working for me.
> My local shop, apart from being mainly an off sales, has been full of folks ignoring the social distancing rule.
> Even the owners are not complying, in spite of me having told them it's dangerous for them.
> We are behind: in Germany shops workers have a shield in front of the tills, most are card only, there are distance markings on the floors.
> ...


Buy what you need and get out, wear gloves, don't touch anything (the lady in my local one was also wearing gloves on Friday night). All the advice was to avoid being close to others for 15 minutes hence don't gather for a picnic - I have not seen a change to that advice. This is the issue, the guidance is very muddled. Clearly if the shop is now a social meeting place, then avoid. I was in and out in 5 minutes


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I didn't say you said they are a bad employer, but by bringing zero hours contracts into it, you seemed to be inferring being on zero hours would count against the employee in this instance.
> 
> As with so many of the bolder statements made on here, a little research reveals there's more to it.
> 
> ...


I appreciate that some are happy on zero hour contracts, that is not a discussion I was attempting to start. 
Do you know, either through talking to your friends or by doing your research, after McDs have paid 'til the start of April what someone that is on a zero hours contract gets 80% of?


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I'd wait to see a consistent downward trend before anticipating good news.


Me too Rusty. I see myself as a glass 1/2 full person but only for lifes trivial business, the important things make me glass 1/2 empty and awaiting a refill.


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> What corner shop??


maybe vickster had been isolating since the birth of punk.
folk will continue to favour supermarkets and aldi and lidl for the reasons they long have.
Especially so in these severely straightened times.
I see the rise of Aldi and Lidl continuing apace after this - folk realising that they don't need 102 varieties of whatever, stuff supposedly created/inspired by/a homage to renaissance barons/peasants -but can instead just use basic simple ingredients a la Catford.


----------



## Edwardoka (23 Mar 2020)

It's honestly like the government and the population are working together in perfect harmony to bring about the worst outcome possible.

At least some companies are trying to do their bit; for instance, one supermarket (that I won't name because damned sheeple can't be trusted not to rush to register) is now giving priority delivery slots to elderly people and those who are disabled or vulnerable, based upon prior customer service contact/loyalty card schemes etc.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Me too Rusty. I see myself as a glass 1/2 full person but only for lifes trivial business, the important things make me glass 1/2 empty and awaiting a refill.



I did say in the adjoining sentence . If people want to be properly cautious they could just point out that in Italy (and possible Spain?) it's believed the numbers of deaths are under-reported as people are dying in their houses. Because it isn't clear when instructions were followed in Italy, it's also very uncertain when the death toll will level off, never mind decline. It was only the other day that we discovered in Italy contrary to Italian lockdown commentary 24/7 on the media a large number of 'non-essential' offices and other things have been running just as normal a week and a half after national lockdown!


----------



## Dave7 (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Must be one you can drive to?


Seriously.....no. You got me thinking so I bounced that off MrsD. We can't think of one that is not part of a chain eg Spar or McColls. Cannot think of a single independant one. I do drive a few miles to the butcher and to the farm shop but apart from that.....nowt.
Near the butchers there are several Polish shops that I triedbut I have no idea what most of the stuff is.


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> *maybe vickster had been isolating since the birth of punk.*
> folk will continue to favour supermarkets and aldi and lidl for the reasons they long have.
> Especially so in these severely straightened times.
> I see the rise of Aldi and Lidl continuing apace after this - folk realising that they don't need 102 varieties of whatever, stuff supposedly created/inspired by/a homage to renaissance barons/peasants -but can instead just use basic simple ingredients a la Catford.


eh?

I've never favoured Lidl or Aldi for anything. When I've bought their fresh or own brand stuff it's been no cheaper than Asda and to me less palatable (and I hate queuing to pay in supermarkets so choose ones with self check outs)


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Seriously.....no. You got me thinking so I bounced that off MrsD. We can't think of one that is not part of a chain eg Spar or McColls. Cannot think of a single independant one. I do drive a few miles to the butcher and to the farm shop but apart from that.....nowt.
> Near the butchers there are several Polish shops that I triedbut I have no idea what most of the stuff is.


Try Spar or MCColls then, if you can't get what you want from a supermarket - those are often run by individual retailers, they aren't a chain like the supermarkets


----------



## Dave7 (23 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> thanks for the update - fits with the trend I have been watching - my shopping can easily await until the back end of next week.
> 
> I did yesterday stroll, distancing, round my local sainsburys.
> Tiny scraps of more exotic pasta left, no rice apart from those barmy individual portion microwave packs - but at least signs of improvement.
> ...


On the retired section I suggest a bartering system eg I will swap one bog roll (unused) for a bottle of Cognac. For some reason I got not takers


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Buy what you need and get out, wear gloves, don't touch anything (the lady in my local one was also wearing gloves on Friday night). All the advice was to avoid being close to others for 15 minutes hence don't gather for a picnic - I have not seen a change to that advice. This is the issue, the guidance is very muddled. Clearly if the shop is now a social meeting place, then avoid. I was in and out in 5 minutes



I think the advice on gloves is that they are near pointless - a better vector for transmission than your bare hands and less able to be washed.

I believe it's rather recommended to ensure you wash your hands often, and immediately after returning home. Eg from the Independent and well sourced:

*



Should I wear gloves to protect myself?

Click to expand...

*


> The NHS says that items like face masks and gloves play a “very important role” in a clinical setting but there is “little widespread evidence” that they are useful for members of the public.
> 
> Public Health England (PHE) and the World Health Organisation has also not recommended people wear gloves or face masks to protect themselves.
> 
> ...


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> This is quite a late one but there's a reason for the late reply.
> 
> Sky news has been using this chart from time to time the last 24 hours. Myself personally I'm not particularly a visual communicator I know that Italy has implemented three lock downs and another three substantial restrictions and when they happened. If it helps others then why not.
> 
> ...



The other big difficulty is the world of science, scientific thinking and words. Are now meeting the world of politics and once you get the two being used as one by politicians as it's just ever day language. Who just don't understand most if not all of it and treat it as sound bites. It's never going to be a happy ending. Then you have the press hanging on every little bit of stats or science that they can so easy take totally out of context. A public that believe what they want or it was on FB so it's fact. Politicians have for so long been use to going things that most people will like. Over night party politics no longer matters. So now the problem is the rules of the game have changed. 
Who ever was in charge from what ever party would face the same challenge. 

Some of the info coming out is not clear enough some is a bit messed up. This has to change and will I think will come quite quickly. 
Much minus the politics and just plan government department stuff is much better. 
Once it was easy they controlled the information as with the foot and mouth but now no-one controls it.


----------



## Unkraut (23 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> We are behind: in Germany shops workers have a shield in front of the tills, most are card only, there are distance markings on the floors.
> 
> Hairdressers are still open.


The Aldi I visited on Saturday has all the markings on the floor and has set out the shop differently as much as possible so people can keep the minimum 1.5 metres apart. Everyone seems to be following this rule as well. The shielding round the till was very makeshift! REWE, which is a bit posher, has posh shielding.

Got my haircut in last week - just in time they are all now closed here. By definition the contact is too close.

Despite all this, and I would say Germany is a good 2 weeks ahead of the UK in clamping down, there is a very real fear that the measures are too late to prevent a spread that will overburden the hospital system. It will take a couple of weeks to find out. It's not as though there aren't shortages of staff and equipment here as well. At least whilst there is still some spare capacity a few patients are being taken from France to help out.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

OK, things are now getting weird:

I'm delighted that Nadine Dorries is returning to work at Parliament.

There, I've said it.

From Graun:



> Health minister *Nadine Dorries* is returning to work in Westminster after recovering from Covid-19.
> 
> She said on Twitter:
> 
> ...


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> I've never favoured Lidl or Aldi for anything. When I've bought their fresh or own brand stuff it's been no cheaper than Asda and to me less palatable (and I hate queuing to pay in supermarkets so choose ones with self check outs)


I've broken my previous boycott and started preferring the supermarkets with handscanners again, keeping my gloves on too. At least if you get selected for full rescan, it's at a till that only does that IME, so no-one queueing behind you.


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think the advice on gloves is that they are near pointless - a better vector for transmission than your bare hands and less able to be washed.
> 
> I believe it's rather recommended to ensure you wash your hands often, and immediately after returning home. Eg from the Independent and well sourced:


Your quotes do not support the "near pointless" claim. However, I feel it is wise to treat glove outers as probably-contaminated (like all the outside world) and wash them often.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

Up the thread I rambled about her indoors flight to England being cancelled last week and how she re-booked for the Sunday flight, yesterdays flight. This was shortly before I heard the news that travel restrictions would be in place here within 24 hours.
The flight on Sunday actually went ahead, without her. I explained that nowhere on the self cert "attestation" we have to make before traveling ANYWHERE did it mention a trip to an airport to drop someone off who wants to attend to domestic matters elsewhere.
This caused some friction between us but as the week of news from all over Europe went by it finally sank in that there is no business in Britain so pressing or urgent for her that she needed to be there.
She is an intelligent person but it seems that many are in a state of denial regarding the seriousness of this outbreak, even when faced with TV images of temporary hospitals and news with increased death counts every day.
The choice of staying put in remote countryside or a metropolitan area of 2.8 million people was very easy for me to make, for her it took some persuading.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> The other big difficulty is the world of science, scientific thinking and words. Are now meeting the world of politics and once you get the two being used as one by politicians as it's just ever day language. Who just don't understand most if not all of it and treat it as sound bites. It's never going to be a happy ending. Then you have the press hanging on every little bit of stats or science that they can so easy take totally out of context. A public that believe what they want or it was on FB so it's fact. Politicians have for so long been use to going things that most people will like. Over night party politics no longer matters. So now the problem is the rules of the game have changed.
> Who ever was in charge from what ever party would face the same challenge.
> 
> Some of the info coming out is not clear enough some is a bit messed up. This has to change and will I think will come quite quickly.
> ...



I think gov.uk is very used to 1950s-1970s style wording. Some of the stuff to the public is very basic - this was one of the mistakes on the social distancing page. There are people that suit that depth of advice, but generally society's moved on and I see this in a wide variety of settings such as employment law where someone says 'what does x mean?' on gov.uk. It's because they've sussed out a subtlety that's not covered. 

Non-essential travel, unnecessary travel and mass gatherings were three phrases that I think are particularly problematic that seem to being addressed by the politicians or public communicators. 

Press conferences - police ones are particularly bad at this - tend to use the same language, it becomes obvious to the in group what it means, but sounds bizarre to the rest.

One of the things that I find interesting are there were the last two weeks people receptive who hadn't yet done anything and it's a case of getting them to think about things and how you do that. An acquaintance runs a business (one of the ones talked about up thread) that is in theory to me quite high risk as there's a level of intimacy and being breathed/cough/talked on. They don't work every day, they had a chat to different people, were getting cancellations, one of the things I and other people said personally was I wouldn't do x at all personally, but if you do then I'd look into an FFP2/3 mask, which isn't recommended by the government btw. They thought well maybe I'll do it with a mask, but reduced procedures. Couldn't get hold of one. Then pulled things, so that person's had no significant social contacts for a week. That's probably a good thing because non-medical opinion they have contact with two people in very high risk groups and I reckon they're probably more high risk than they reckon .


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think the advice on gloves is that they are near pointless - a better vector for transmission than your bare hands and less able to be washed.
> 
> I believe it's rather recommended to ensure you wash your hands often, and immediately after returning home. Eg from the Independent and well sourced:



For most people they don't wear gloves for PPE for infection control. Mass inexperienced wearing is a bad idea it stop's you remembering to wash your hands. Also at what point are people removing them and in what way? When worn correctly they are designed to be removed after ever procedure. Not as everyday wear. In fact your making it worse not better and the risk is higher.

You go out to the shop , come home wash your hands, wash your hands every time you want to touch your face, prep and eat food, blow your nose, every time you've been to the loo. Really the simple advice if your not truly use to this and don't practice it as part of your job.
If in doubt wash your hands , hot water and good old soap. For 20 sec and mack sure you get ever bit clean don't forget the back of your hands.

What ever new government stuff comes out the basic hand washing message will always stay. It simple , works and lets face it it's not rocket science.


----------



## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I appreciate that some are happy on zero hour contracts, that is not a discussion I was attempting to start.
> Do you know, either through talking to your friends or by doing your research, after McDs have paid 'til the start of April what someone that is on a zero hours contract gets 80% of?



No, but that may partly be because neither do they - yet.

McDonalds does appear to be acting fairly in this instance so I'd like to think they would come up with a starting figure for each employee, possibly by averaging their wages over the last few months.

It's also not clear to me what the government would accept as a monthly wage for a zero hours employee.

Fairly simple for someone in my position, same wage PAYE, each month for the last year or more.

Presumably, a zero hours person at McDs will have a variable wage.

I think I heard somewhere some zero hours have a minimum number of hours that must be worked - perhaps McDs will use that.


----------



## Julia9054 (23 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> The same


My drug regime puts me in the very high risk group according to this asthma uk list but if you look at the government list, it states severe asthma which has a specific definition and is not me. I have not been on oral steroids for 20 years and have not been hospitalised since I was 19. I will just have to wait and see if I get one of these NHS letters this week


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## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think the advice on gloves is that they are near pointless - a better vector for transmission than your bare hands and less able to be washed.
> 
> I believe it's rather recommended to ensure you wash your hands often, and immediately after returning home. Eg from the Independent and well sourced:


Corner shop is under 10 minutes away, gloves just stop the sticking of fingers in mouth on way back home, where hands can be washed. It was also chilly on Friday night so gloves kept fingers warm too


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## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> No


Thank you.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Buy what you need and get out, wear gloves, don't touch anything (the lady in my local one was also wearing gloves on Friday night). All the advice was to avoid being close to others for 15 minutes hence don't gather for a picnic - I have not seen a change to that advice. This is the issue, the guidance is very muddled. Clearly if the shop is now a social meeting place, then avoid. I was in and out in 5 minutes



The guidance is everywhere. It's within families. It's within households. It's in shops. It's in workplaces. It's within GP surgeries. Health settings. In parks. In playgrounds. Everywhere. Where possible. If not implementable then as soon as possible.

There was a bit of a saga over playgrounds yesterday where someone said about this and the media went to town and then realised hey they've closed playgrounds in Ireland. It got brought up at the press conference. What the DCMO has said before doesn't contradict this, it's just that they recognise that people don't listen and 'difficulties' in implementing it. The DCMO previously talked about if children within the same family play together or are a bit closer at times they generally have the same risk - but only if isolated from others a bit. I think the emphasis was a bit more on the 2 m yesterday as ministers were probably tired of seeing tv and instagram photos as I've seen of large groups of families all mixing together at picnics, bbqs, socials and in playgrounds. For older groups parties. For older groups yet mass trips to any sort of park of venue still open. 

The advice on groups which puzzles some people is that groups of 10-20 people who know each other reasonably well seem particularly bad. This may be within a large venue with mixing. There's the before and after socialising too. This is why for large gatherings and particularly outside ones advice has been that large gatherings are not worse than "small" ones.


----------



## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> My drug regime puts me in the very high risk group according to this asthma uk list but if you look at the government list, it states severe asthma which has a specific definition and is not me. I have not been on oral steroids for 20 years and have not been hospitalised since I was 19. I will just have to wait and see if I get one of these NHS letters this week



I won't attempt to interpret the conditions on the government list.

But assuming I have the right list, it does say: "Shielding is for your personal protection, it is your choice to decide whether to follow the measures we advise."

Which leaves gives you the wiggle room not to follow any or all of the advice if you know some of it would not help you.

I think I will get a letter, and have no problem following most of the advice - I'm doing a lot of that now.

But I would want to continue to buy my own food, which the get out clause means I can without feeling guilty.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ng-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19


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## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

@Mugshot @Pale Rider
The big problem with McD and employment ever since the early days. Is it's wide use of the franchise model so not one big solution and unpicking who your employer is and who is responsible for what. They don't have a great record with government payout. When Cameron did the old "look we have big names backing key skills education for workers". They handed over funding some payed for staff if they went on courses. McD pocketed it and spent it on in house training.


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> View attachment 509921
> 
> 
> Yep , I wonder if they had a flake and raspberry toppings on their ‘corono-cones !





Johnno260 said:


> But they need enforced lockdowns or totally harsh penalties for bars, pubs that open, I would fine, prosecute and revoke their license indefinitely.
> I cycled pasts 4 pubs, all open, all packed total idiots all of them.
> This crisis has shown me a large portion of the country are total morons.
> The NHS opening time for Tesco’s was a nice idea but my wife won’t do it again it was more dangerous.


----------



## Duffy (23 Mar 2020)

cosmicbike said:


> I wonder if cyclists think they are invincible. I, along with missus and 2 teenagers, are on day 5 of 14 self isolating. 2 of us have symptoms. We have 2 dogs which are getting walked by all of us every day, we stay well away from other owners. I've been out on the bike most days, and this morning was amazed at the number of big groups of weekend warriors out, even more so to see them gathering in a café in Addlestone. What is wrong with people?



that’s an interesting take on ‘self isolation’ due to symptoms in the house (and a great chance of you being infectious)

Going out on the bike every day???? I thought the clear advice was to stay inside


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## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> View attachment 509921
> 
> 
> Yep , I wonder if they had a flake and raspberry toppings on their ‘corono-cones !


----------



## Unkraut (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> They handed over funding some payed for staff if they went on courses. McD pocketed it and spent it on in house training.


McDonald's training:

Course A: here you learn to cook the food

Course B: here you learn to cook the books.

(Sorry! - but a little bit of occasional light relief helps.)


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> View attachment 509921
> 
> 
> Yep , I wonder if they had a flake and raspberry toppings on their ‘corono-cones !
> ...


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> For most people they don't wear gloves for PPE for infection control. Mass inexperienced wearing is a bad idea it stop's you remembering to wash your hands. Also at what point are people removing them and in what way? When worn correctly they are designed to be removed after ever procedure. Not as everyday wear. In fact your making it worse not better and the risk is higher.
> 
> You go out to the shop , come home wash your hands, wash your hands every time you want to touch your face, prep and eat food, blow your nose, every time you've been to the loo. Really the simple advice if your not truly use to this and don't practice it as part of your job.
> If in doubt wash your hands , hot water and good old soap. For 20 sec and mack sure you get ever bit clean don't forget the back of your hands.
> ...


Who doesn’t wash their hands after going to the toilet (or urinating/defecating)...one of the reasons why men urinaring outside is revolting wherever it is, how do you wash your hands afterwards?

Apparently (based on what a prof of microbiology said on a programme that I saw a while back), hot water is not an absolute, it’s more for comfort. The aim is to wash off the nasties, the soap does the killing


----------



## Duffy (23 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Up the thread I rambled about her indoors flight to England being cancelled last week and how she re-booked for the Sunday flight, yesterdays flight. This was shortly before I heard the news that travel restrictions would be in place here within 24 hours.
> The flight on Sunday actually went ahead, without her. I explained that nowhere on the self cert "attestation" we have to make before traveling ANYWHERE did it mention a trip to an airport to drop someone off who wants to attend to domestic matters elsewhere.
> This caused some friction between us but as the week of news from all over Europe went by it finally sank in that there is no business in Britain so pressing or urgent for her that she needed to be there.
> She is an intelligent person but it seems that many are in a state of denial regarding the seriousness of this outbreak, even when faced with TV images of temporary hospitals and news with increased death counts every day.
> The choice of staying put in remote countryside or a metropolitan area of 2.8 million people was very easy for me to make, for her it took some persuading.



There appears to be a distance between people that are genuinely essential to the world going around and those of us who just think we are.

The categorisation of what’s genuinely important in day to day life is undergoing stress testing just now for a lot of folks also

😊


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## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Mugshot @Pale Rider
> The big problem with McD and employment ever since the early days. Is it's wide use of the franchise model so not one big solution and unpicking who your employer is and who is responsible for what. They don't have a great record with government payout. When Cameron did the old "look we have big names backing key skills education for workers". They handed over funding some payed for staff if they went on courses. McD pocketed it and spent it on in house training.



I believe most McDonalds are franchised - there are a couple of businessmen around here who have a few restaurants each.

However, the McDonalds chief exec is confident of near full compliance with the closure order.

There could be a term in the franchise contract which makes him think that.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> She is an intelligent person but it seems that many are in a state of denial regarding the seriousness of this outbreak, even when faced with TV images of temporary hospitals and news with increased death counts every day. The choice of staying put in remote countryside or a metropolitan area of 2.8 million people was very easy for me to make, for her it took some persuading.



It could just be moral hazard.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Who doesn’t wash their hands after going to the toilet (or urinating/defecating)...one of the reasons why men urinating outside is revolting wherever it is, how do you wash your hands afterwards?



Quite a small minority of people that's nevertheless important in terms of flu and norovirus spread. It isn't an age, gender, cultural or anything else thing. A minority don't a fair bit of the time. Same with handling pets. Same with eating. Same with anything.

At the other end of the scale are people who do wash their hands very thoroughly indeed, but don't do it very often and government advice is trying to deal with that too.


----------



## Mo1959 (23 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Quite a small minority of people that's nevertheless important in terms of flu and norovirus spread. It isn't an age, gender, cultural or anything else thing. A minority don't a fair bit of the time. Same with handling pets. Same with eating. Same with anything.
> 
> At the other end of the scale are people who do wash their hands very thoroughly indeed, but don't do it very often and government advice is trying to deal with that too.


Have to admit I don't wash my hands after handling my cat. However she is purely an indoor cat so doesn't bring any nasties in from outside. Obviously if I do something like scoop the litter tray, I do it then.


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## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Quite a small minority of people that's nevertheless important in terms of flu and norovirus spread. It isn't an age, gender, cultural or anything else thing. A minority don't a fair bit of the time. Same with handling pets. Same with eating. Same with anything.
> 
> At the other end of the scale are people who do wash their hands very thoroughly indeed, but don't do it very often and government advice is trying to deal with that too.


What do all the male cyclists on the forum do after they've popped behind a bush?


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

That's the queue going out of the car park for McDs drive through as of 5 mins ago.


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## Julia9054 (23 Mar 2020)

Currently planning a climbing wall for the side of the garage with my son who is home from uni and missing his climbing gym. He can teach me to climb - make my arms as awesome as my legs and stop me going bonkers if it turns out I am stuck in the house for 12 weeks!


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> What do all the male cyclists on the forum do after they've popped behind a bush?



We're not playing that one . A lot of people actually try and avoid that and go to toilets on rides. And funnily enough complain about substandard hand washing facilities.

The handwashing advice is there for the stated reasons that a lot of people don't do it and you are boorishly and obtusely picking on a very small subset of activities in the middle of a world pandemic. Go and set up your own thread about peeing in bushes and not washing hands in some other bit of the forum - if you find that concerning or gross or worrying or humourous or badass or whatever.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think the advice on gloves is that they are near pointless - a better vector for transmission than your bare hands and less able to be washed.
> 
> I believe it's rather recommended to ensure you wash your hands often, and immediately after returning home. Eg from the Independent and well sourced:


I have to drive to pick up food supplies, it is 13km to nearest shops. A friend and I discussed the various lengths necessary to avoid taking unwanted passengers home. Apart from the packaging that may have been handled by other shoppers minutes previously to you we came to the conclusion that car keys and once inside the car the controls, steering wheel etc would be a possible store for covid 19. 
In the car you let down your guard, people pick their noses or rub their eyes. Last Wednesday was the last time I shopped and I had to train myself to keep my mitts off my face until my return home, I actually found it easier than I thought it would be.
The next time I shop I am going to hang a small bottle of alcohol gel wash off a belt loop and the moment I store the trolley in its bay I will be washing my hands with the gel before touching my car keys or unlocking my car. 
Whether that procedure will increase my protection I cannot say but at the least it will keep the need to be vigilant in the front of my mind. 
As for vinyl examination gloves, I would say if you remove and bin them immediately after your last presumed hazardous interaction and they have not touched any of you or your belongings then I would say they are effective, it is the way you use them that is of importance. Even taking a pair off, the first glove is easy, the second glove not so easy without the contamination of finger or thumb removing it.


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> We're not playing that one . A lot of people actually try and avoid that and go to toilets on rides. And funnily enough complain about substandard hand washing facilities.
> 
> The handwashing advice is there for the stated reasons that a lot of people don't do it and you are boorishly and obtusely picking on a very small subset of activities in the middle of a world pandemic. Go and set up your own thread about peeing in bushes and not washing hands in some other bit of the forum - if you find that concerning or gross or worrying or humourous or badass or whatever.


It was a question


----------



## Dave7 (23 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Currently planning a climbing wall for the side of the garage with my son who is home from uni and missing his climbing gym. He can teach me to climb - make my arms as awesome as my legs and stop me going bonkers if it turns out I am stuck in the house for 12 weeks!


Blimey, you must have a big garage


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## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> What do all the male cyclists on the forum do after they've popped behind a bush?



Adjust my bibs


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Blimey, you must have a big garage



Or scared of heights


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Mugshot @Pale Rider
> The big problem with McD and employment ever since the early days. Is it's wide use of the franchise model so not one big solution and unpicking who your employer is and who is responsible for what. They don't have a great record with government payout. When Cameron did the old "look we have big names backing key skills education for workers". They handed over funding some payed for staff if they went on courses. McD pocketed it and spent it on in house training.


I happen to have some level of experience with McDs, my son works there as does his partner.
My son is on an 8 hour contract, he has worked for McDs for years and throughout that time has, on a number of occasions, asked that they put him on a contract that reflects the hours he actually works, full time, they haven't and wouldn't. He has worked his way through various rungs of the McD management ladder and was about to get his promotion to become a salaried member of management, however, due to the situation the final part of the training program was cancelled and his promotion suspended, so he remains on an 8 hour contract. His girlfriend is on a zero hour contract, despite having worked full time hours virtually since she started around 2 years ago.
Currently, as I understand it, if you are on a zero hour contract (or any other) there is not an entitlement to 80% of your average earnings over any time frame, but I would be interested in knowing for certain. If you don't know the answer, as indeed was eventually revealed, "friends" that are happy on zero hour, McDs coffee being really quite tasty or the implication that there is a lack of research on my part are, with all due respect, irrelevant.


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## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Who doesn’t wash their hands after going to the toilet (or urinating/defecating)...one of the reasons why men urinaring outside is revolting wherever it is, how do you wash your hands afterwards?


Grossly enough, far too many people. I have seen enough people walking straight out of the No2 trap and out of the door without pausing at the wash sinks, truly disgusting.
I'm not Howard Hughes level OCD but years ago I took to carrying wipes or small tissues to navigate my way through the dreaded door handles of buildings. I never used handrails on stairs and got pulled over several times by zealous site managers or safety officers for not having a hand on the rail while ascending or descending stairs. I don't like norovirus it makes me feel pretty awful. 
Bar snacks in bowls, pub ice, I just do not touch.


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## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

Just had to go in town for something that had to be done. Town center was quieter than usual, but still plenty of people about and going in and out of non essential shops like Sports Direct. 
Roads were quieter than usual though, so it was nice to be on my ebike.
I should imagine that hand cream is going to be in demand, my hands are dry as feck with all this handwashing.


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## LCpl Boiled Egg (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Who doesn’t wash their hands after going to the toilet (or urinating/defecating)/QUOTE]



I could give you a list of people at my place of work...


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Grossly enough, far too many people. I have seen enough people walking straight out of the No2 trap and out of the door without pausing at the wash sinks, truly disgusting.
> I'm not Howard Hughes level OCD but years ago I took to carrying wipes or small tissues to navigate my way through the dreaded door handles of buildings. I never used handrails on stairs and got pulled over several times by zealous site managers or safety officers for not having a hand on the rail while ascending or descending stairs. I don't like norovirus it makes me feel pretty awful.
> Bar snacks in bowls, pub ice, I just do not touch.



PPG instituted a rule that everyone had to have one hand on a handrail when going up or down steps after an accident involving a sprained ankle. Within six months absence rates due to colds and flu had quadrupled so they put hand sanitising stations by all stairs but the absence rate stayed at double the pre handrail rule rate.

(they also brought in a rule that no-one was allowed to walk whilst talking on a mobile phone after someone hurt themselves whilst not paying attention. If your phone rang you had to immediately stand still or sit down)


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## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> I could give you a list of people at my place of work...


Male or female? I don't ever recall seeing a woman walk out of a toilet without hand washing (also before the advice started).
It's a serious question.
I carry sanitiser or wipes if I think I won't be able to wash my hands eg if travelling


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Currently planning a climbing wall for the side of the garage with my son who is home from uni and missing his climbing gym. He can teach me to climb - make my arms as awesome as my legs and stop me going bonkers if it turns out I am stuck in the house for 12 weeks!


Be careful. Last time I was in England I was doing renovation work at the missus place. I only had 5" wheels for an old 4" angle grinder, easy remedy, take the guard off. As sure as eggs is eggs the tool slipped and sliced through a leather rigger glove and into my index finger.
One needless attendance at the walk in and 4 stitches later I was treated to some derision by my other half. I was thinking about the potential for home accidents as more people are forced to remain home and the added strain on health services. It is surely a good opportunity for fixing things, decorating and garden maintenance but it goes without saying, be careful unlike me with stupid written across his forehead.


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## Inertia (23 Mar 2020)

Apologies if this has been asked, but if a total lockdown does happen? How will people get food etc. 

It does seem a bit at odds to ban pubs but allow people to walk around a close environment like a supermarket.


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## Rusty Nails (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Male or female. I don't ever recall seeing a woman walk out of a toilet without hand washing before the advice started.



My wife says she sees it a lot. Also cubicles really filthy and toilet bowls overflowing with paper.

Probably worse with men imo but such filthy habits are not single sex.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Male or female? I don't ever recall seeing a woman walk out of a toilet without hand washing (also before the advice started).
> It's a serious question.
> I carry sanitiser or wipes if I think I won't be able to wash my hands eg if travelling



Male.


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## Milkfloat (23 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Is there collective term for a group of dick heads



A parliament of dick heads?


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Inertia said:


> Apologies if this has been asked, but if a total lockdown does happen? How will people get food etc.
> 
> It does seem a bit at odds to ban pubs but allow people to walk around a close environment like a supermarket.


I guess people have to buy food, and most don't spend a long time sitting around a small table for hours in a supermarket (the cafes have been closed)


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## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> My wife says she sees it a lot. Also cubicles really filthy and toilet bowls overflowing with paper.
> 
> Probably worse with men imo but such filthy habits are not single sex.


I used to be front of house manager at a theatre with a couple of bars etc. The women's loos were invariably filthier than the men's most nights.


----------



## cosmicbike (23 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> that’s an interesting take on ‘self isolation’ due to symptoms in the house (and a great chance of you being infectious)
> 
> Going out on the bike every day???? I thought the clear advice was to stay inside



Nope, allowed out to exercise. I have mixed with my family and nobody else since day 1.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

cosmicbike said:


> Nope, allowed out to exercise. I have mixed with my family and nobody else since day 1.



Me too, except for food shopping


----------



## Unkraut (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Male or female? I don't ever recall seeing a woman walk out of a toilet without hand washing (also before the advice started).
> It's a serious question.


I wonder if this inattention to hygiene accounts for the 57% male infection rate just announced in the daily press briefing here. That's a fair difference.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Also reports this morning of ambulances having their tyres drilled.
> 
> Coronavirus Kent: Six ambulances have holes drilled in tyres in overnight attack in Ramsgate


Are the scrotes who would do that from the same tribe that light fires in public places then ambush the fire service when they arrive on the scene? They put Panasonic Arbitrator camera gear into the GMFRS vehicles many years ago to film these cavemen with a view to later prosecutions. These specimens live amongst your communities.


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## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I have to drive to pick up food supplies, it is 13km to nearest shops. A friend and I discussed the various lengths necessary to avoid taking unwanted passengers home. Apart from the packaging that may have been handled by other shoppers minutes previously to you we came to the conclusion that car keys and once inside the car the controls, steering wheel etc would be a possible store for covid 19.
> In the car you let down your guard, people pick their noses or rub their eyes. Last Wednesday was the last time I shopped and I had to train myself to keep my mitts off my face until my return home, I actually found it easier than I thought it would be.
> The next time I shop I am going to hang a small bottle of alcohol gel wash off a belt loop and the moment I store the trolley in its bay I will be washing my hands with the gel before touching my car keys or unlocking my car.
> Whether that procedure will increase my protection I cannot say but at the least it will keep the need to be vigilant in the front of my mind.
> As for vinyl examination gloves, I would say if you remove and bin them immediately after your last presumed hazardous interaction and they have not touched any of you or your belongings then I would say they are effective, it is the way you use them that is of importance. Even taking a pair off, the first glove is easy, the second glove not so easy without the contamination of finger or thumb removing it.



You've just unknowing described why they are not a good idea for everyday use.

When do you intend to put the gloves on ? before you walk out the door? before you get your car keys? the list go's on.
It's impossible to be clinically clean in none clinical environments. You are going more harm than good with gloves. Just wash your hands every time you possibly put yourself at risk. The virus is a bad boy once it's in the body .Outside it however it's like a little kid when you mix it with hot water and soap. They both don't like it.

If you use hand gel as you say I take it you do your shopping wearing full PPE and have carried out full aseptic technique thought.
You've got a personal scrub nurse in the boot to help you. Your car has been though an autoclave and has been inspected within an inch of it life by an eagle eyed theatre sister. (even Cold-19 would run a mile from theatre sister)

You just don't know what the "last presumed hazardous interaction" is. It's not like a operating theatre where you learn that it's ok to touch anything just along as it's not green.

Just wash your hands often and if in doubt just do it. I've covered the how's and when already on here.

PS
If you think taking off gloves is hard then stay clear of using a fully sterile pair. Getting the 1st one on is an art in itself and once you get both on and remember you've forgot something then your really stuffed. (For nurses that's when junior doctors come in handy)


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> You've just unknowing described why they are not a good idea for everyday use.
> 
> When do you intend to put the gloves on ? before you walk out the door? before you get your car keys? the list go's on.
> It's impossible to be clinically clean in none clinical environments. You are going more harm than good with gloves. Just wash your hands every time you possibly put yourself at risk. The virus is a bad boy once it's in the body .Outside it however it's like a little kid when you mix it with hot water and soap. They both don't like it.
> ...


Which is why I do not use gloves. We seek to minimise risk and with a trip to the shops we have to contend with people who maul and inspect fresh produce and even bread. Up thread I mentioned watching an old bloke pick up and maul every single head of batavia lettuce in a supermarket, squeezing them and fondling them as some shoppers do.
I made a mental note there and then not to buy salad veg for the foreseeable future. You can boil root veg but I ain't going to wash salad in soap and the way the old guy was mauling the stuff I expect any of the crap on his fingers was bruised into the soft flesh of the leaves.
I will say leaving your hand washing until you get home is a bad idea if you shop in your car, you leave anything on your hands all over the controls and contaminate yourself the very next time you pull the door handle of your car before you even get inside it.


----------



## GM (23 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m hearing from my son, via his medical friends, that a number of doctors in London have been mugged at knifepoint and had their NHS badges stolen.
> 
> These are doctors who have completed long shifts and have left the hospital wearing their NHS id badges round their necks.
> 
> I’m struggling to think of anything more disgusting.




That is absolutely shocking, can these scumbags stoop any lower. Hope Gravel stays safe!


----------



## Fab Foodie (23 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m hearing from my son, via his medical friends, that a number of doctors in London have been mugged at knifepoint and had their NHS badges stolen.
> 
> These are doctors who have completed long shifts and have left the hospital wearing their NHS id badges round their necks.
> 
> I’m struggling to think of anything more disgusting.


8 ambulances in Ramsgate having their tyres drilled over the weekend?


----------



## Rocky (23 Mar 2020)

GM said:


> That is absolutely shocking, can these scumbags stoop any lower. Hope Gravel stays safe!


Thanks - the fact that one of the victims was his boss, brings it home. Luckily he wasn't hurt just taken aback. What makes me slightly cross is that people are taking to Twitter to call this fake news (when the Prof originally tweeted about it). I know for a fact it happened. However, I'm not going to waste my energy on the sceptics.


----------



## Rocky (23 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> 8 ambulances in Ramsgate having their tyres drilled over the weekend?


How are you feeling? And more important, how is Basil?


----------



## Duffy (23 Mar 2020)

If my household was infected I’d stop exercising as I’d place the health (and possibly the lives) of others over my need to get out on my bike.

A bit selfish otherwise, no???




cosmicbike said:


> Nope, allowed out to exercise. I have mixed with my family and nobody else since day 1.


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> eh?
> 
> I've never favoured Lidl or Aldi for anything. When I've bought their fresh or own brand stuff it's been no cheaper than Asda and to me less palatable (and I hate queuing to pay in supermarkets so choose ones with self check outs)


Am well aware that you don't favour lidl or aldi. I think in the past you have said that you don't like the "shopping experience". I too favour self checkout and seems to me more valuable in these times, particularly if using cash. Two lidls near me - one is pushing 100 per cent self checkout and has been for months maybe years. Other one is well well over 50 per cent selfcheckouts. Ditto in practice the third one in peckham.
Haven't been in any of them for over a week - biding my time.


----------



## Edwardoka (23 Mar 2020)

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned upthread but these measures should have been taken weeks ago in the UK, when the full scale of the crisis that Italy and Iran were facing became apparent.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new...prime-minister-jacinda-arderns-address-nation

Very impressive leadership. That New Zealand, with its 2 known cases of internal transmission, is taking steps that are more drastic than the UK, with its 5000+ cases, should tell you all you need to know about how far up schitt creek we are as a country. 

Ardern will be immensely unpopular because of this (at least until the dust has settled and the final death counts become clear).


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> When do you intend to put the gloves on ? before you walk out the door? before you get your car keys? the list go's on.
> It's impossible to be clinically clean in none clinical environments. You are going more harm than good with gloves.


Essentially, I put them on when I cross the threshold outbound and remove them on the reverse, as usual but the difference at the moment is I'm not removing them in shops. It's not going to be clinically clean but why do you think it's better to remove them in shops? (And I'm not riding bare-handed when it's this cold.)



> Just wash your hands every time you possibly put yourself at risk.


Install many many more hand sinks around town and I will, but that's just not possible yet.


----------



## Mo1959 (23 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> I'm not sure if this has been mentioned upthread but these measures should have been taken weeks ago in the UK, when the full scale of the crisis that Italy and Iran were facing became apparent.
> https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new...prime-minister-jacinda-arderns-address-nation
> 
> Very impressive leadership. That New Zealand, with its 2 known cases of internal transmission, is taking steps that are more drastic than the UK, with its 5000+ cases, should tell you all you need to know about how far up schitt creek we are as a country.
> ...


I think Boris is terrified of being unpopular by closing everything down. He will be a whole lot more unpopular if his lack of action results in several hundred or more deaths!


----------



## Fab Foodie (23 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> 6. ambulances in Ramsgate having their tyres drilled over the weekend?
> 
> Edit: Beaten to it by fast-fingers @Mugshot


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Which is why I do not use gloves. We seek to minimise risk and with a trip to the shops we have to contend with people who maul and inspect fresh produce and even bread. Up thread I mentioned watching an old bloke pick up and maul every single head of batavia lettuce in a supermarket, squeezing them and fondling them as some shoppers do.
> I made a mental note there and then not to buy salad veg for the foreseeable future. You can boil root veg but I ain't going to wash salad in soap and the way the old guy was mauling the stuff I expect any of the crap on his fingers was bruised into the soft flesh of the leaves.
> I will say leaving your hand washing until you get home is a bad idea if you shop in your car, you leave anything on your hands all over the controls and contaminate yourself the very next time you pull the door handle of your car before you even get inside it.



I'd never get in the car once Mrs 73 had used it. However you clean the car it will only ever be socially clean at best. So Unless your getting up close with the inside or snack on the steering wheel it's fine to wash your hands once home.
Pulling the door handle is way too late you've already contaminate yourself long before then.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I think Boris is terrified of being unpopular by closing everything down. He will be a whole lot more unpopular if his lack of action results in several hundred _thousand_ or more deaths!



Suggested amendment...


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> If my household was infected I’d stop exercising as I’d place the health (and possibly the lives) of others over my need to get out on my bike.
> 
> A bit selfish otherwise, no???


Far more selfish to stop taking care of your health and be hospitalised with an avoidable inactivity-induced illness at this time, no?


----------



## Fab Foodie (23 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> How are you feeling? And more important, how is Basil?


Basil better, me same as yesterday, bit wheezy but nothing major. Much better night, less fever. Hopefully slowly getting there....


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Anyone still in the dark over this ? 

Let's try this one


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> (Sorry! - but a little bit of occasional light relief helps.)


On that note, here's German TV making fun of hoarders (hamster-shoppers in German) and wondering what they're doing with all that bogroll and pasta...


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

Inertia said:


> Apologies if this has been asked, but if a total lockdown does happen? How will people get food etc.
> 
> It does seem a bit at odds to ban pubs but allow people to walk around a close environment like a supermarket.


Pubs had to be shut as hardly essential but i agree about the shops threat. It's why i am not shopping at the moment. Of course lots of the recent shopping wasn't essential either.


----------



## Edwardoka (23 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I think Boris is terrified of being unpopular by closing everything down. He will be a whole lot more unpopular if his lack of action results in several hundred or more deaths!


That particular horse has not only bolted before the stable door was locked, it's already en-route to Saturn.
While trying to restrain my depressive, nihilistic side, the numbers are clear: the UK is on a trajectory to have tens of thousands of people die to this.

We have 5,683 confirmed cases, and we're not doing ANY testing until people are hospitalised. The real figure is likely to be orders of magnitude higher than that. At this point on their trajectory, Italy had implemented their countrywide lockdown. We're still saying "um, er. yes, maybe people should, you know. um. maybe don't go to the pub or the beach. um, er."


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> My wife says she sees it a lot. Also cubicles really filthy and toilet bowls overflowing with paper.
> 
> Probably worse with men imo but such filthy habits are not single sex.


If this divert goes on i will enter the cave of graffiti.


----------



## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

Lidl, Morrisons, Sainsbury's and the Co-Op today no distance markings on the floor and no control on numbers in store. Noticed a checkout operator disinfecting her till area but still no thought by any of them to provide anything at self service tills as far as I could tell (exclude Lidl as that one has no self service tills). Shortages patchy but generally still seems to be toilet rolls , frozen and canned foods. Major problem in all was not keeping 2m from the person in front but how to get anywhere near 2m from someone going in the opposite direction down an aisle. Subsequently pondered what to do this afternoon and decided cleaning the patio would be a good idea so off to B&Q for requisite pressure washer fluid and they were restricting access to a limited number in store at anyone time.


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> We're still saying "um, er. yes, maybe people should, you know. um. maybe don't go to the pub or the beach. um, er."


This is a genuine advert from a company in my county. The guarantee was, apparently, that if you got it, they'd give you your money back. They've taken it down now and are not taking bookings before June.


----------



## Hugh Manatee (23 Mar 2020)

A Scottish colleague has just said the construction sites north of the border will be closing. This isn't confirmed, but it looks like I might soon have time on my hands as well!

Presumably hospital sites will still be working? Trouble is theses days you need a 45 minute induction to get on site and not even to do work there.


----------



## perplexed (23 Mar 2020)

I've been to do and take the food shopping to my elderly parents. Mission more or less accomplished, barring the inevitable odd item missing from the list. I knocked on the door, they retreated to the living room and I deposited the stuff and left.

Anyway, general musings and observations and are in no way scientific:

I'd say road traffic is probably down about 20% at a guess, and pedestrians quite a bit thinner on the ground. However, there were quite a few groups of people about.

I saw at least 4 or 5 buses which had not a soul on board save the driver.

Morrisons was actually pretty quiet. They have signs advising people to keep 1 trolley width apart. I stress I'm generalising, but I'd say that probably 80% of the people from early 20s to about 50 were actually pretty good at observing social distancing. Unfortunately, I'd say a large percentage (perhaps 75%) of those north of 50 (which is my demographic) were poor at observing social distancing. At the tills, there was generally good compliance regarding SD.

One thing I did notice (also last week when early advice was being given for older people in particular to lie low if possible) was that there was a surprising number of people who looked to be in their mid 70s to late 80s who were accompanied by younger people, for the most part their obviously grown up children (in their 50s).


I passed a McDonalds (Farm Road/Granville Road) on the way home, and the drive through was rammed. Anyone who knows Sheffield will know that a few hundred metres further along on Queens Road, there's a huge B&Q. The car park was rammed. Probably people planning a bit of DIY for any lockdown...


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

Hugh Manatee said:


> A Scottish colleague has just said the construction sites north of the border will be closing. This isn't confirmed, but it looks like I might soon have time on my hands as well!
> 
> Presumably hospital sites will still be working? Trouble is theses days you need a 45 minute induction to get on site and not even to do work there.


was just typing a response to this when I got an email from Mac mic saying they’re closing their sites.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

Mountain Rescue request

_Our plea now is stop going to the National Parks for your personal isolation because you are putting us in a difficult position.

Please avoid all but essential travel and do not to take any unnecessary risks. If you are going to go out, you should walk, climb or *cycle well within your capabilities so that you can keep yourself safe *and not need us._

My bold


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Major change of policy in spain, 650 000 test kits sent out.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sting-kits-as-coronavirus-deaths-rise-steeply


----------



## perplexed (23 Mar 2020)

A school's fridges and freezers targeted by thieves.


View: https://twitter.com/EmmaKennedy/status/1242095437588414473?s=20


----------



## Bazzer (23 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> I've been to do and take the food shopping to my elderly parents. Mission more or less accomplished, barring the inevitable odd item missing from the list. I knocked on the door, they retreated to the living room and I deposited the stuff and left.
> 
> Anyway, general musings and observations and are in no way scientific:
> 
> ...



Child 2 has just returned from shopping at Asda. She reports several shoppers were enforcing "their" space by deliberately pushing trolleys into other shoppers to get to the shelves, rather than waiting a few seconds for a space. 
Also the McDonalds which is at the same shopping mall, had a queue for the drive through which ran through the mall car park and out on to the road, causing problems for non McDonalds traffic.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Only the old need worry ...... 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-year-old-uk-nurse-intensive-care-coronavirus


----------



## Dave7 (23 Mar 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> I could give you a list of people at my place of work...


Some years ago we went to a Chinese restaurant for lunch. After we had eaten I went for a pee and there a waiter was also having a pee. After he finished he gave it a shake, tucked it away and walked out. No hand wash for him. I nearly puked.


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> That particular horse has not only bolted before the stable door was locked, it's already en-route to Saturn.
> While trying to restrain my depressive, nihilistic side, the numbers are clear: the UK is on a trajectory to have tens of thousands of people die to this.
> 
> We have 5,683 confirmed cases, and we're not doing ANY testing until people are hospitalised. The real figure is likely to be orders of magnitude higher than that. At this point on their trajectory, Italy had implemented their countrywide lockdown. We're still saying "um, er. yes, maybe people should, you know. um. maybe don't go to the pub or the beach. um, er."



It’s quite likely all those divs on Snowdonia and all the other honey pots would disagree last chance to go out Might we’ll be The next trip could be wearing a wooden overcoat or following a hearse containing a loved relative.
Is


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Data on social distancing

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-in-coronavirua-social-distancing-data-shows


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

GM said:


> That is absolutely shocking, can these scumbags stoop any lower. Hope Gravel stays safe!




Yes 6ft under with a load of earth on top. They do not understand the meaning of respect orhave never been taught it by parents


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Some years ago we went to a Chinese restaurant for lunch. After we had eaten I went for a pee and there a waiter was also having a pee. After he finished he gave it a shake, tucked it away and walked out. No hand wash for him. I nearly puked.



I'll share mine.
I used to work for a DIY chain that rented a bit of their car park space to burger vans. I'd have a burger occasionally, until I was in the staff toilets one day and the owner came out of one of the traps and walked straight out without washing his hands.


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I'll share mine.
> I used to work for a DIY chain that rented a bit of their car park space to burger vans. I'd have a burger occasionally, until I was in the staff toilets one day and the owner came out of one of the traps and walked straight out without washing his hands.


Maybe he reckoned the van sink was cleaner than yours. Hope he opened doors with his feet!


----------



## Edwardoka (23 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Major change of policy in spain, 650 000 test kits sent out.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sting-kits-as-coronavirus-deaths-rise-steeply


That image of the conference centre is absolutely haunting. Serious 1918 vibes.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Yes 6ft under with a load of earth on top. They do not understand the meaning of respect orhave never been taught it by parents


Won't even be 6 feet under the emergency legislation allows LA if numbers get too high to take over the whole process no religious exceptions . It will be cremation only no if or buts

Change that the small bunch of MP's have won so religious wishers will now trump public health need.


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> The next trip could be wearing a wooden overcoat or following a hearse containing a loved relative.


Relatives in some places are not being allowed to attend burials or cremations during lockdown. So there's a chance that you infect granny and she'll leave in an ambulance and you'll never be allowed to see her again.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-funerals.html


----------



## Rezillo (23 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> A school's fridges and freezers targeted by thieves.
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/EmmaKennedy/status/1242095437588414473?s=20




As someone has pointed out, this story is not on the twitter feed given by Jeremy Vine.

[edit] but is reported here:

https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/essex-primary-schools-desperate-plea-3974268


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Won't even be 6 feet under the emergency legislation allows LA if numbers get too high to take over the whole process no religious exceptions . It will be cremation only no if or buts


I have one of those large garden incinerators.Will only charge for the fire lighters.


----------



## Duffy (23 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Far more selfish to stop taking care of your health and be hospitalised with an avoidable inactivity-induced illness at this time, no?



A whole 2 weeks in the house????
Feck me, how quickly do you go downhill? 
worth risking somebody else’s life in a chance encounter whilst (probably) contagious?

Get a grip


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> A whole 2 weeks in the house????
> Feck me, how quickly do you go downhill?
> worth risking somebody else’s life in a chance encounter whilst (probably) contagious?
> 
> Get a grip


Within 2 weeks non exercise, my blood chemistry is to cock. I know this from past hard-frozen winters where I was tested every couple of weeks. It's part of the reason for getting spiked tyres.

Almost all outdoor encounters are avoidable, especially if you carry a c19 biohazard sign.

Get a grip yourself, on your keyboard warrior fingers!


----------



## GetAGrip (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Male or female? I don't ever recall seeing a woman walk out of a toilet without hand washing (also before the advice started).
> It's a serious question.
> I carry sanitiser or wipes if I think I won't be able to wash my hands eg if travelling


Oh they do, they do. I hear the cubicle door go and then the entrance door pretty much immediately


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> I have one of those large garden incinerators.Will only charge for the fire lighters.



You may get a subcontract.


----------



## kingrollo (23 Mar 2020)

@PK99 - Hows it going mate ?


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Relatives in some places are not being allowed to attend burials or cremations during lockdown. So there's a chance that you infect granny and she'll leave in an ambulance and you'll never be allowed to see her again.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-funerals.html


I had a chat to my neighbour yesterday, at a suitable distance of course over the garden wall, chat consisted of what you would expect currently including the general stupidity of people not socially distancing themselves. Eventually broke it off when I said I should be getting on with my planting, he agreed he needed to get on as well as he was going to visit his parents. 

"I know I shouldn't" he said as I stood there staring at him.
"No, you shouldn't." 
"It might be the last chance I get to see them though."
"Yes, it may very well be!" I said.

He drove off about 5 minutes later.


----------



## cosmicbike (23 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> If my household was infected I’d stop exercising as I’d place the health (and possibly the lives) of others over my need to get out on my bike.
> 
> A bit selfish otherwise, no???



Explain how so? Perhaps I should go with the masses and buy bog roll..


----------



## PK99 (23 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> @PK99 - Hows it going mate ?



Been through 111 questionnaire and it has told me to phone in.

Symptoms still quite mild
Same as Mrs ok. Medium grade flu

Will call 111 shortly.


----------



## Duffy (23 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Within 2 weeks non exercise, my blood chemistry is to cock. I know this from past hard-frozen winters where I was tested every couple of weeks. It's part of the reason for getting spiked tyres.
> 
> Almost all outdoor encounters are avoidable, especially if you carry a c19 biohazard sign.
> 
> Get a grip yourself, on your keyboard warrior fingers!



I’m sorry but I just find that a bit “Me, me, me!” which is a big part of why things are worsening at the rate they are.


----------



## Duffy (23 Mar 2020)

cosmicbike said:


> Explain how so? Perhaps I should go with the masses and buy bog roll..



What explanation is required.
You’re in with a good chance of being infected and contagious, stay in the house and hee haw chance of passing it onto others, go out and there’s a chance.

That chance, possibly, involves ending somebody else’s life.

It’s genuinely not rocket science.


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> I’m sorry but I just find that a bit “Me, me, me!” which is a big part of why things are worsening at the rate they are.


So you'd rather I end up risking an unnecessary trip to the ICU for an illness I've definitely got and kept at bay for decades? Thanks(!)


----------



## Edwardoka (23 Mar 2020)

The "should I cycle alone while self-isolated?" debate is a controversial one, Ned Boulting took a lot of flak on the twitters for suggesting that people who cycled at all during the current crisis were irresponsible selfish jerks.

I'm not sure whether I agree with him or not; I certainly don't agree with his reasoning, that cyclists are prone to crashing and injury and thus place extra strain on the healthcare.
Cyclist injuries don't even show on the graph when compared to hospital admissions from household injuries or car crashes.

I was out on the bike late on Saturday night because I had a pounding headache and needed fresh air. The place was pretty dead, and when I did encounter the odd pedestrian (and a couple of cyclists, to my surprise) I rode on the other side of the road from them. Hard to argue that there was any risk of being a disease vector there. A busy cycle path during a sunny day, OTOH...


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

Welsh Gov are apparently due to announce the closure of all caravan parks, campsites, tourist hotspots and popular beauty spots from today, if you're already down here you'll be told to pack up and go home. Also will be enforcing pub closures with threat of licence removal.


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Welsh Gov are apparently due to announce the closure of all caravan parks, campsites, tourist hotspots and popular beauty spots from today, if you're already down here you'll be told to pack up and go home. Also will be enforcing pub closures with threat of licence removal.


I've wondered how much councils took in from sales of car park day tickets over the last weekend.


----------



## Rocky (23 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Been through 111 questionnaire and it has told me to phone in.
> 
> Symptoms still quite mild
> Same as Mrs ok. Medium grade flu
> ...


I hope all works out and you both get back to normal as soon as poss. Take care


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> The "should I cycle alone while self-isolated?" debate is a controversial one, Ned Boulting took a lot of flak on the twitters for suggesting that people who cycled at all during the current crisis were irresponsible selfish jerks.
> 
> I'm not sure whether I agree with him or not;[...]


I think it's important to remember self-isolating aka self quarantine is different to social distancing aka stay home except essentials.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> The "should I cycle alone while self-isolated?" debate



That's simple one self-isolating cyclist or no cyclist. You can't go out full stop.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (23 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> It’s quite likely all those divs on Snowdonia and all the other honey pots would disagree last chance to go out Might we’ll be The next trip could be wearing a wooden overcoat or following a hearse containing a loved relative.
> Is



Snowdonia was ok if unnecessary. Snowdon was the div part. Plenty of empty space there but Snowden is a bit like Blackpool promenade. Plenty of mountain terrain nearby with not a soul. Been that way for years.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Nice to see parliament is leading by example and social distancing. .... Not 
I see Corbyn is true to his word and is not self isolating. Doubt he will be the only one.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

> Three teenagers were arrested after an elderly couple were allegedly coughed at in the street. The couple were approached by three people in Hitchin, one of whom is said to have coughed in their faces.
> 
> A passer-by intervened and there was "an altercation" which left a woman in her 70s with a black eye, police said.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52003543


There needs to be some high profile deterrent sentencing soon, for vermin like this and the people opening pubs, cafes etc when they should be shut down.


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52003543
> 
> 
> There needs to be some high profile deterrent sentencing soon, for vermin like this and the people opening pubs, cafes etc when they should be shut down.


If that's the one I think it was, and it certainly fits the description, the passer-by was one Mr Yaxley-Lennon.


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's simple one self-isolating cyclist or no cyclist. You can't go out full stop.


The government disagrees: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...at-home-make-sure-you-do-the-following-things


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's simple one self-isolating cyclist or no cyclist. You can't go out full stop.


I haven't been out of the flat apart to go to the ground floor laundry for 4 days so I'm keeping self-isolation to the maximum. The turbo trainer is getting daily use. However, I'm going to need to go to the shops in a few days when - who knows - the hamster-shoppers might have receded, and when I do, I'll do it on the bike. There's more social isolation in the road than while walking on the pavement.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> If that's the one I think it was, and it certainly fits the description, the passer-by was one Mr Yaxley-Lennon.


oh


----------



## Edwardoka (23 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> I think it's important to remember self-isolating aka self quarantine is different to social distancing aka stay home except essentials.


Yes, of course, apologies. Sleep pattern upside down, haven't slept since yesterday so a bit muddled. 

This serves to show how ambiguous and rubbish the messaging has been that I got that wrong despite this having my undivided attention for weeks now.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52003543
> 
> 
> There needs to be some high profile deterrent sentencing soon, for vermin like this and the people opening pubs, cafes etc when they should be shut down.



Well they could use assault charge and once this emergency was come's in it re affirms current public health law. So they can be held for 48 hours and be tested. On the say of PHE quarantined by force for 14 days and if PHE still think they are a threat another 14 days.
So 28 day in total. That's for starters.


----------



## ozboz (23 Mar 2020)

One in one one out at Lloyd’s pharmacy Kew, I’m glad it’s not raining !!


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Snowdonia was ok if unnecessary. Snowdon was the div part. Plenty of empty space there but Snowden is a bit like Blackpool promenade. Plenty of mountain terrain nearby with not a soul. Been that way for years.


----------



## kingrollo (23 Mar 2020)

This might be an over simplicfation - but would help to create categories of people :-

Ie - high risk groups = cat a
Self isolation as family member showing symptoms = cat b

At there moment there is so much conflicting advice - think lots of people aren't really sure what they can do....

I'm asthmatic - and feel my best hope is to keep fit - can I go on a solo cycle ride ?


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

It's not just older people.


View: https://twitter.com/FactCheck/status/1242126376171438082?s=20


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Snowdonia was ok if unnecessary. Snowdon was the div part. Plenty of empty space there but Snowden is a bit like Blackpool promenade. Plenty of mountain terrain nearby with not a soul. Been that way for years.


Sorry meant Snowdonia Yes aware Snowdonia is an area


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> This serves to show how ambiguous and rubbish the messaging has been that I got that wrong despite this having my undivided attention for weeks now.


Yeah, all these rebrands like self-isolating and shielding should go do one.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I haven't been out of the flat apart to go to the ground floor laundry for 4 days so I'm keeping self-isolation to the maximum. The turbo trainer is getting daily use. However, I'm going to need to go to the shops in a few days when - who knows - the hamster-shoppers might have receded, and when I do, I'll do it on the bike. There's more social isolation in the road than while walking on the pavement.



Are you self isolating as you are at risk or as you have symptoms ? 

The 2 are different one is solely for your own safety and the other is for everyone's safety? 

The former you can go out if really want at own risk. The latter it's not an option until 7 days min have past with you not getting any worse.


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> This might be an over simplicfation - but would help to create categories of people :-
> 
> Ie - high risk groups = cat a
> Self isolation as family member showing symptoms = cat b


I don't think many catch it from cats, so I would not bring them into it!



> At there moment there is so much conflicting advice - think lots of people aren't really sure what they can do....


Just keep posting the links to www.gov.uk/covid19 for the latest advice. Surely people must get the idea eventually and stop copy-pasting junk without checking the latest?



> I'm asthmatic - and feel my best hope is to keep fit - can I go on a solo cycle ride ?


Unless you've been contacted or have other reason to think you're especially vulnerable (so-called severe asthma) and should be "shielded", then you follow the social distancing advice and, yes, you can: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...le-adults#looking-after-your-mental-wellbeing


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Are you self isolating as you are at risk or as you have symptoms ?
> 
> The 2 are different one is solely for your own safety and the other is for everyone's safety?
> 
> The former you can go out if really want at own risk. The latter it's not an option until 7 days min have past with you not getting any worse.


At risk, though I haven't had the NHS letter yet. I don't think anybody has, though. (I have a slight feeling I've already had CV-19, caught off my daughter, just before the UK started taking this half-seriously. Fever, dry cough, no other symptoms. Similar with my daughter. Of course, this might mean that I've already had my opportunity to pass it on but that I am now immune. There's no way of knowing this for sure though.)


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> At risk, though I haven't had the NHS letter yet. I don't think anybody has, though. (I have a slight feeling I've already had CV-19, caught off my daughter, just before the UK started taking this half-seriously. Fever, dry cough, no other symptoms. Similar with my daughter. Of course, this might mean that I've already had my opportunity to pass it on but that I am now immune. There's no way of knowing this for sure though.)


A friend of mine has had a text already (highest at risk group being immunosuppressed due to lymphoma, although in remission).
She was also meant to be starting a new job in the NHS next week as a psychologist working with dementia patients


----------



## kingrollo (23 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Been through 111 questionnaire and it has told me to phone in.
> 
> Symptoms still quite mild
> Same as Mrs ok. Medium grade flu
> ...


Keep us posted mate .....so far so good.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (23 Mar 2020)

Source Guardian.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

602 new deaths in Italy. A two day in a row fall.


----------



## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

On the subject of can I ride as bike looking at GCN it's noticeable cycling on your own is still being permitted in some countries which do have a lock down in force, Switzerland for example.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (23 Mar 2020)

La Repubblica is reporting the death of a 40 yr old worker at the European Parliament.

He was an Italian citizen and worked in IT support.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (23 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> On the subject of can I ride as bike looking at GCN it's noticeable cycling on your own is still being permitted in some countries which do have a lock down in force, Switzerland for example.



Yes allowed out for exercise on your own. My sister is doing a loop that takes her about 1 hour 20 mins or so.


----------



## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

I've just had the text from NHS Coronavirus Service. Thought i might due to my COPD, although its often moderate, it can be severe at times.
Told do not leave my home for a minimum of 12 weeks. The only concession seems to be i can open a window !!
So at least 12 weeks of captivity and boredom living on my own. I shall go off my nut.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (23 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> I've just had the text from NHS Coronavirus Service. Thought i might due to my COPD, although its often moderate, it can be severe at times.
> Told do not leave my home for a minimum of 12 weeks. The only concession seems to be i can open a window !!
> So at least 12 weeks of captivity and boredom living on my own. I shall go off my nut.



Do you have 12 windows? Maybe open one per week a bit like an advent calendar ?


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Do you have 12 windows? Maybe open one per week a bit like an advent calendar ?



The twelve weeks of Boris.


----------



## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

Well i guess i could just carry on mostly what i've been doing, only going out when necessary, like getting food & beer. Plus riding my bike and start walking my dog where there's hardly anyone around.
Or comply and have to check out how to get food delivered, which is something i know nothing about.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> I've just had the text from NHS Coronavirus Service. Thought i might due to my COPD, although its often moderate, it can be severe at times.
> Told do not leave my home for a minimum of 12 weeks. The only concession seems to be i can open a window !!
> So at least 12 weeks of captivity and boredom living on my own. I shall go off my nut.


My understanding is if you can go into the garden (if you have) and canker the 2m distance from fence , hedge and the like then it's ok. 
Early morning short walks with no-one around is another option. If you do go out see someone keep your distance and what ever else wash your hand when you get back in even if in the garden.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Don't do a count down chart. It make's it feel like it even longer.


----------



## Fab Foodie (23 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> I've just had the text from NHS Coronavirus Service. Thought i might due to my COPD, although its often moderate, it can be severe at times.
> Told do not leave my home for a minimum of 12 weeks. The only concession seems to be i can open a window !!
> So at least 12 weeks of captivity and boredom living on my own. I shall go off my nut.


I hope you have a lot of jigsaw puzzles....


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

No press briefing today of course (Cobra meeting) but apparently Boris will be making a TV statement at 8:30 tonight.

Did I imagine it or listening to cheeky chappy Sara Cox while doing the washing up did I just hear her in a cheeky chappy chat with some woman in her car taking her daughter to football practice? Doesn't sound too vital or distanced to me.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Source Guardian.
> 
> View attachment 510015


UK yesterday had it's youngest death she was 18 it also came with at some time of the eldest 102


----------



## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

Me thinks it takes time time Zwift realised they are providing a socially necessary role for cyclists and made it free for the duration


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> At risk, though I haven't had the NHS letter yet. I don't think anybody has, though. (I have a slight feeling I've already had CV-19, caught off my daughter, just before the UK started taking this half-seriously. Fever, dry cough, no other symptoms. Similar with my daughter. Of course, this might mean that I've already had my opportunity to pass it on but that I am now immune. There's no way of knowing this for sure though.)



Ok well you can go out if you keep to the 2m distance if you really have to. If your shopping you need to time it right. What ever you do weather you come across anyone. Wash your hands as soon you get home even if out in garden. 
I'd not take it as read you have already had this. Once you get your letter it will explain what you need to do. Just stay safe and wait for the letter.


----------



## Dave Davenport (23 Mar 2020)

We're going to find it really hard not visiting our nine month old grandson, daughter and her husband in Pembrokeshire. We won't be going even though we have a caravan on a site there, unlike the large number of selfish gits who have gone to their holiday homes etc. She says it's like the holiday season up there, her village shop has gone full Royston Vasey and is only serving locals.


----------



## kingrollo (23 Mar 2020)

I'm trying to keep cools with one of those fans that rotates.....
The only thing is the rotating bit has broken - and I have to turn it myself.........

You could say I'm self oscillating !


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

On the dangers of believing too much in rapid cures.

I have a friend who is a professor of virology. Their views on the just published French paper that has raised hopes of hydroxychloroquine:

_This is not good at all. There are major methodological problems with this paper... 

...Conclusion - maybe it works, but maybe it does not work at all, and it's just an artefact due to biases in the trial protocol._

Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996

Hydroxychloroquine has, of course, been "Trumpeted" (see what I did there?) as a miracle cure and caused a run on tonic water. Though there may be other, gin related, causes for that...


----------



## kingrollo (23 Mar 2020)

No letter yet - but my GP is so shoot - I doubt I will get it for a couple of months !!!!


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Following on from my post about things to help explain the current situation to kids 

I've another one to add to the list a nurse has put this together 

https://nursedottybooks.com/dave-the-dog-is-worried-about-coronavirus-2/


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> On the dangers of believing too much in rapid cures.



One should be sceptical about cures and vaccines in short timescales. 

The real dramatic throw of the dice stuff is spain going with test kits (probably turn out to be a seriously fookin smart move) and in America the FDA have granted an emergency use coronavirus test https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/21/fda...t-that-can-deliver-results-in-45-minutes.html


----------



## Salty seadog (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Maybe this could be a new thread  not really current affairs?



Well it clearly is..... 

It's also news... .

It is however off topic. 👅


----------



## PK99 (23 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Been through 111 questionnaire and it has told me to phone in.
> 
> Symptoms still quite mild
> Same as Mrs ok. Medium grade flu
> ...




Online questionnaire told me to phone. Call handler said continue to hunker down at home unless gets significantly worse.

🤞


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> 602 new deaths in Italy. A two day in a row fall.


thanks for following/reporting on this.
I wouldn't get too hopeful yet though.
I wouldn't be surprised if, with hospitals overloaded, folks are dying, even choosing to die, at home.
And I have the impression that the path to death can be pretty swift for the frial.


----------



## Mo1959 (23 Mar 2020)

Just watching the news. 24 doctors in Spain dead!


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> I've just had the text from NHS Coronavirus Service. Thought i might due to my COPD, although its often moderate, it can be severe at times.
> Told do not leave my home for a minimum of 12 weeks. The only concession seems to be i can open a window !!
> So at least 12 weeks of captivity and boredom living on my own. I shall go off my nut.









Look after yourself.


----------



## cosmicbike (23 Mar 2020)

Day 6. Dog walk with the lurcher staying on lead since he's new and recall is patchy, so he tends to go to other dogs and I have to then go get him, a no go at the moment.
No ride today, feeling rough.
First home from my brother, ham, bread and the elusive loo roll. No eggs though, wonder why people are stockpiling those.


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

You know how randomn things drop into your head from time to time, if we go on full lockdown, will there be an amnesty on MOTs?


----------



## cosmicbike (23 Mar 2020)

Is it just me, or is the advice about self isolating or not a bit odd? Daughter unwell on 18th, so we self isolate for 14 days. According to the Government website, since she has been showing symptoms, she can go out after 7 days, whilst the rest have to stay isolated. Unless, like me, you get symptoms, in which case you can go after 7. So what was a 14 day self isolation for me is now 10 days. Unless SWMBO and Son get symptoms then they have to stay home the full 14 days..


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/ProfWoodward/status/1241663295028854784


----------



## Mo1959 (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> You know how randomn things drop into your head from time to time, if we go on full lockdown, will there be an amnesty on MOTs?


Mine is tomorrow! I suspect garages are very close to closing too though. I think the government will need to authorise some sort of dispensation on mots if they do to keep people legal.


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

cosmicbike said:


> No eggs though, wonder why people are stockpiling those.


Yes have long wondered about that - hardly super long life - not vital - maybe because folk don't usually buy - everyone taking one would clear the shelves quickly.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> 602 new deaths in Italy. A two day in a row fall.



Not what I'd describe as "good news", but allows for some hope they're turning tbe tide.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's simple one self-isolating cyclist or no cyclist. You can't go out full stop.



View: https://twitter.com/FFCyclisme/status/1240549283620884481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1240549283620884481&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelocal.fr%2F20200319%2Ffrance-tightens-rules-on-jogging-during-coronavirus-lockdown


"We ask all cyclists to be responsible and avoid all outdoor activity during this period," the federation tweeted.
From "The Local" online paper.
"One watchword matters: "Save lives! Stay at home!'.'

The government then appeared to back up this message by retweeting the federation with the words: "We have one message for cyclists: 'stay home'. "

But when the ministry of interior was asked to confirm cycling was banned their response to Liberation newspaper was slightly different.

The ministry said it was permitted if it was "necessary for good personal balance" adding that that it is all about "reducing your trips outside to the maximum".

The interpretation of the rules by police on the ground may also not be consistent.

One French journalist reported taking his bike out to get some exercise and the police who stopped him to ask for his form accepted that it was allowed as long as he was alone. 

Cycling to work is NOT forbidden however although you will need to have your "attestation" with you to show to police.


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

cosmicbike said:


> No eggs though, wonder why people are stockpiling those.


Have you checked the Co-op?


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> I've just had the text from NHS Coronavirus Service. Thought i might due to my COPD, although its often moderate, it can be severe at times.
> Told do not leave my home for a minimum of 12 weeks. The only concession seems to be i can open a window !!
> So at least 12 weeks of captivity and boredom living on my own. I shall go off my nut.


Jeze! You are going to need to draw on some strength of mind to stop your brain from rotting. Do you have a garden?


----------



## kingrollo (23 Mar 2020)

cosmicbike said:


> Is it just me, or is the advice about self isolating or not a bit odd? Daughter unwell on 18th, so we self isolate for 14 days. According to the Government website, since she has been showing symptoms, she can go out after 7 days, whilst the rest have to stay isolated. Unless, like me, you get symptoms, in which case you can go after 7. So what was a 14 day self isolation for me is now 10 days. Unless SWMBO and Son get symptoms then they have to stay home the full 14 days..


Yeah there's a few gaps - things are changing so fast I suppose.
It all needs clarification - unless we go into total lockdown - then everyone knows where they stand.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> thanks for following/reporting on this.
> I wouldn't get too hopeful yet though.
> I wouldn't be surprised if, with hospitals overloaded, folks are dying, even choosing to die, at home.
> And I have the impression that the path to death can be pretty swift for the frial.



I'm not hopeful in that sense at all, already said those things buried in this thread. Probably another 4000+ deaths to come in peak-1. Or more, maybe even 15,000.

I'm much more hopeful about testing technologies.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> You know how randomn things drop into your head from time to time, if we go on full lockdown, will there be an amnesty on MOTs?


The most likely option is what they did in NI when the test centres closed due to the funding situation. (they only have 8)
A temp certificate was issued to give legal cover so people could still sort ignorance and stuff.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (23 Mar 2020)

cosmicbike said:


> Is it just me, or is the advice about self isolating or not a bit odd? Daughter unwell on 18th, so we self isolate for 14 days. According to the Government website, since she has been showing symptoms, she can go out after 7 days, whilst the rest have to stay isolated. Unless, like me, you get symptoms, in which case you can go after 7. So what was a 14 day self isolation for me is now 10 days. Unless SWMBO and Son get symptoms then they have to stay home the full 14 days..



I think it’s based on the mean time till symptoms appearing being about 5.5 days after getting the virus. So after 7 days it’s 12.5 days and I presume they also have to be free of symptoms? But yes we were wondering why the difference.


----------



## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Jeze! You are going to need to draw on some strength of mind to stop your brain from rotting. Do you have a garden?



Yes, i have a decent sized rear garden, so at least my dog can be outside when he wants. 
Shame it wasn't the start of the winter, the weather has been so bad i've been virtually self isolating for the last 3 months.


----------



## nickyboy (23 Mar 2020)

[/QUOTE]


tom73 said:


> Ok well you can go out if you keep to the 2m distance if you really have to. If your shopping you need to time it right. What ever you do weather you come across anyone. Wash your hands as soon you get home even if out in garden.
> I'd not take it as read you have already had this. Once you get your letter it will explain what you need to do. Just stay safe and wait for the letter.



Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the government instruction that these high risk individuals MUST stay at home and food will be delivered to them?

I don't want to be the one to preach to people in a difficult situation but there are pages of posts here criticising people who are failing to heed government instruction on essential journeys, social distancing etc


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

To be fair the UK media today has had a very consistent message on social distancing. They seem to have got fed up of waiting for some of the politicians. This stuff wasn't seen on italian tv till 3-4 days after the national italian lockdown.


----------



## ozboz (23 Mar 2020)

So Bojo is on at 8-30 , lock down ?


----------



## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> To be fair the UK media today has had a very consistent message on social distancing. They seem to have got fed up of waiting for some of the politicians. This stuff wasn't seen on italian tv till 3-4 days after the national italian lockdown.


can you clarify this?
The media reported the government advice surely?


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> A temp certificate was issued to give legal cover so people could still sort *ignorance* and stuff.


(emphasis mine)

Now, now, we shouldn't go stereotyping motorists like that!


----------



## Mugshot (23 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> So Bojo is on at 8-30 , lock down ?


I reckon.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Anyone who what's to learn what , why and overall what this whole thing is about and help you know what true and what's total crap. 
Try this free online course from London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Via future learn the OU owned and ran free online learning site. 
https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/covid19-novel-coronavirus

On a side note if you find your going out of your mind being inside. future learn has plenty to go at and the OU has some great free stuff of it's own on it's open learn site.


----------



## fossyant (23 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> So Bojo is on at 8-30 , lock down ?
> Most likely


----------



## ozboz (23 Mar 2020)

This character would be handy right now !!


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> can you clarify this?
> The media reported the government advice surely?



The media's had videos on all day of the belfast respiratory team, local pictures (on local news was nurses at a ward my father's been to many times and known locally), interviews. Special op ed pieces going through government advice and questions (such as something someone here asked 2 days back). There's been cheesy weather forecasts of people getting tape measures out saying make sure you're two metres away from me for doing the weather. BBC and some others did the spread out thing on the sofa for a while, but it's every program now.

That's quite different to yesterday where we had 'playground' saga where some in the media were saying eh you aren't really asking people not to mix in packed playgrounds? Are you? And just general commentary about numbers and deaths. About people going up snowden. I was watching sky news yesterday and it looked like Kimberley Leonard just thought WTAF am I reading, these people are stupid, can I read out something else please?

Totally different.


----------



## Hugh Manatee (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Have you checked the Co-op?



Made me laugh!


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

interesting story about lack of emergency phone system here https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nored-advice-set-up-uk-emergency-alert-system


----------



## All uphill (23 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Mine is tomorrow! I suspect garages are very close to closing too though. I think the government will need to authorise some sort of dispensation on mots if they do to keep people legal.


Your MOT!

I missed that! We have to get MOTs now? I'm sure I'll fail mine. 

On the other hand our car will probably pass with no problems again. It's a Volvo.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

@nickyboy

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the government instruction that these high risk individuals MUST stay at home and food will be delivered to them?
I don't want to be the one to preach to people in a difficult situation but there are pages of posts here criticising people who are failing to heed government instruction on essential journeys, social distancing etc


Yes that's the case the OP had earlier said they needed to go shopping at some point. Then clarified the situation re being at risk.
So I stand correct i've seen what i've done I got two replies mixed. Forgive me I spent a few hour's already today trying it explain all this with a few of neighbours and i've still got a few more to check on yet.
In my defence I did say wait for the letter and it will explain things


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> interesting story about lack of emergency phone system here https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nored-advice-set-up-uk-emergency-alert-system



Oh yes forgot about that one of many thing ConDems quietly dropped. Was hard to keep up they had so many.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Greggs to close all shops tomorrow


----------



## Mo1959 (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Greggs to close all shops tomorrow


Hopefully it will soon just be supermarkets and chemists.


----------



## Rusty Nails (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Greggs to close all shops tomorrow



If anyone didn't realise coronavirus was really serious this should finally convince them.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Yes have long wondered about that - hardly super long life - not vital - maybe because folk don't usually buy - everyone taking one would clear the shelves quickly.


Just something else for the locusts to move on to. I wonder if some of them are browsing prepper websites.


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Hopefully it will soon just be supermarkets and chemists.


And other shops selling food (suppose it depends how you define supermarket)


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> If anyone didn't realise coronavirus was really serious this should finally convince them.


"All pies of value have been removed from the premises"


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

GP reports that some people are playing down symptoms when asked as they don't think it's the virus. 
Even worse some are laying by making out they at higher risk or they have symptoms in order to get seen face to face. 
So they can get ask about / treatment for other conditions. 
They have enough on without this


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Hopefully it will soon just be supermarkets and chemists.



Don't worry Mo KFC are still open


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

Just seen someone make the observation that Boris is making an announcement at 8.30pm.

About the time most people are home after work.

Total, immediate lockdown coming?


----------



## Mo1959 (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Don't worry Mo KFC are still open


Never been in one! Only been in MacDonalds once because I was with someone. Not keen on these places.


----------



## Mrs M (23 Mar 2020)

Popped into the local supermarket tonight on way home for some essentials.
Que outside the recently opened MacDonalds was unbelievable!


----------



## cosmicbike (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Have you checked the Co-op?


I'll ask him to try that next time, but reckon we're good to get to the end of our isolation. Defo good for dinners, just lunchtime was the problem.


----------



## Yellow Fang (23 Mar 2020)

So when will this be all over? I'm bored of it already.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (23 Mar 2020)

It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach the first 100,000 cases of Covid-19, but it took only 11 days for the second 100,000 cases, and just four days for the third 100,000 cases, WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said.


----------



## Johnno260 (23 Mar 2020)

unfortunately this crisis makes me lose faith in many humans, the slashing of ambulance tyres, the stealing of food for a school setup for keyworkers, some people are a total disgrace I don’t even class them as human.


----------



## Unkraut (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Total, immediate lockdown coming?


If there is any chance of undoing the potential damage done by the antics of the weekend, then yes.


----------



## ozboz (23 Mar 2020)

Is this 

the £1m question !!



Yellow Fang said:


> So when will this be all over? I'm bored of it already.


----------



## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> So when will this be all over? I'm bored of it already.



When we're all dead..... and i expect being dead is even more boring.


----------



## Unkraut (23 Mar 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> So when will this be all over? I'm bored of it already.


I have heard talk of up to 18 months before we are finally out of this.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> If there is any chance of undoing the potential damage done by the antics of the weekend, then yes.



Immediate ordering of 3 million test kits?


----------



## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

cosmicbike said:


> No eggs though, wonder why people are stockpiling those.


Suspect it follows on from last week's fruit shortage along with any flour shortages that, are in order to use the far too much fruit bought, people are busy making them into pies to fill there brand new second, third fourth...freezer with. Certainly both my nearest Aldi on Saturday and Lidl today had them but Sainsbury's were clean out.


----------



## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I think it’s based on the mean time till symptoms appearing being about 5.5 days after getting the virus. So after 7 days it’s 12.5 days and I presume they also have to be free of symptoms? But yes we were wondering why the difference.


Yes that was stated on TV tonight, the incubation period for catching from the family house member who has it.


----------



## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

A good idea that is happening in Ripon is people displaying a green card in their front window to say they are okay and changing it to red when they need assistance, the first red card was apparently someone needing some food for their cat.


----------



## Unkraut (23 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Immediate ordering of 3 million test kits?


Well I am sure that would help, but as with everything in short supply at the moment rustling up that number of kits is easier said than done. This of course highlights why it was so silly partying over the weekend. Not doing that would have bought time perhaps.


----------



## perplexed (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> You know how randomn things drop into your head from time to time, if we go on full lockdown, will there be an amnesty on MOTs?



Glad it's not just me. On a not dissimilar theme, my car keeps insisting on telling me it wants servicing in 4,000 miles time, which is a reasonable time away. However, many vehicles will be due much sooner, so what happens to 'strict' service timetables and the like, and warranty validation if they go over? Trivial at the present I know, just idle musing.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

I was supposed to be getting a new car delivered next month. Think I'll still get it?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> unfortunately this crisis makes me lose faith in many humans, the slashing of ambulance tyres, the stealing of food for a school setup for keyworkers, some people are a total disgrace I don’t even class them as human.



The lessons of history and indeed literature show that human nature has not changed. 

See the Bible, Shakespeare etc


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I was supposed to be getting a new car delivered next month. Think I'll still get it?



Bollocks to your useless 4 wheeled lump of metal. 

I'm supposed to go and pick up a new bicycle next month!!

Will that be allowed???

Let's get our priorities sorted here!


----------



## Mo1959 (23 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> A good idea that is happening in Ripon is people displaying a green card in their front window to say they are okay and changing it to red when they need assistance, the first red card was apparently someone needing some food for their cat.


Sadly some of the scum out there have already been trying to take advantage of preying on the elderly. At first I thought this was a good idea, but it’s sadly open to abuse.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Suspect it follows on from last week's fruit shortage along with any flour shortages that, are in order to use the far too much fruit bought, people are busy making them into pies to fill there brand new second, third fourth...freezer with. Certainly both my nearest Aldi on Saturday and Lidl today had them but Sainsbury's were clean out.


Is that with home made pastry and is it just a filling with a lid.
if it’s no to the 1st I will give it miss and if it’s no to latter then it’s not a pie


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> A good idea that is happening in Ripon is people displaying a green card in their front window to say they are okay and changing it to red when they need assistance, the first red card was apparently someone needing some food for their cat.


Seen this thought it was great sadly down our street not enough people care


----------



## cosmicbike (23 Mar 2020)

Lockdown it is then.


----------



## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

cosmicbike said:


> Lockdown it is then.


One outing for exercise permitted - walk, run or cycle


----------



## lazybloke (23 Mar 2020)

My father-in-law is in his 80s, which according to HMG guidance puts him at "increased risk of severe illness [and he is advised] to be particularly stringent in following social distancing measures". That's before considering his cardiac & other health issues.

He can barely walk, he lives alone, and yet some of prescriptions (eg morphine) have to be collected _by him personally_. A bit disappointing.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Millions of test kits.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

So that’s it pretty clear. with backing of police powers.


----------



## kingrollo (23 Mar 2020)

Not a Boris fan by any means. But thought he did a pretty good speech just now.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

This is one of those “Where were you” moments.

I just hope we all get the chance to remember it in years to come.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

Looks like I can keep my daily "commute" from home but not go and pick up my new bike.

Seems fair.

I agree with it all, I just wish it had been done two weeks ago, which would have reduced the death toll massively.


----------



## Gunk (23 Mar 2020)

I’m in between jobs, I think I’m well and truly screwed. I was supposed to start on the 30th March.


----------



## Electric_Andy (23 Mar 2020)

I'm confused about what is classed as absolutely necessary with regard to seeing family. Me and my son would have been isolating from Saturday to Thursday, can he still go and see his mum if no symptoms?


----------



## Salty seadog (23 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> You know how randomn things drop into your head from time to time, if we go on full lockdown, will there be an amnesty on MOTs?



I've thought it, mines due.


----------



## kingrollo (23 Mar 2020)

Gunk said:


> I’m in between jobs, I think I’m well and truly screwed. I was supposed to start on the 30th March.


Surely you new employer would understand


----------



## Gunk (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I just hope we all get the chance to remember it in years to come.



You make a good point, although this is a nightmare, storms do pass, we won’t be in this situation for ever.


----------



## Salty seadog (23 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Mine is tomorrow! I suspect garages are very close to closing too though. I think the government will need to authorise some sort of dispensation on mots if they do to keep people legal.



They may do for key workers. That will be it I reckon. Helps keep people in.


----------



## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

Strikes me five bike rides are possible - to work, from work, to a shop, from a shop, necessary exercise


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I'm confused about what is classed as absolutely necessary with regard to seeing family. Me and my son would have been isolating from Saturday to Thursday, can he still go and see his mum if no symptoms?



If he is currently in a different household then no. Definitely not.


----------



## Salty seadog (23 Mar 2020)

That's not a lockdown. 
That's a strong request. 

He urged us to do it. 

Still be flouted with impunity for a bit yet.


----------



## alicat (23 Mar 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I'm confused about what is classed as absolutely necessary with regard to seeing family. Me and my son would have been isolating from Saturday to Thursday, can he still go and see his mum if no symptoms?



No, not unless she is a vulnerable person needing help/care.

The French have to fill in forms justifying why they are leaving the house. Think of it like that. Which exemption does your trip out fit in?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> That's not a lockdown.
> That's a strong request.
> 
> He urged us to do it.
> ...


Nope. He said police would have powers to enforce it


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

So Boris has done it.Hope those people that massed at the seaside resorts mountain tops and tourist traps enjoyed there day out at the expense of those of us that practiced social distancing.Watch them moaning about there I civil liberties.Tough do do Take care and good luck.
.


----------



## alicat (23 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Strikes me five bike rides are possible - to work, from work, to a shop, from a shop, necessary exercise



You're not really getting it, are you? Two members of this forum have it. One member of my club is in hospital with it.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I'm confused about what is classed as absolutely necessary with regard to seeing family. Me and my son would have been isolating from Saturday to Thursday, can he still go and see his mum if no symptoms?


 
+1 for no different house. Not same as family group that lives together.


----------



## Salty seadog (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Nope. He said police would have powers to enforce it



He did. But there was no implication that he s issuing an order. That will be next.


----------



## Electric_Andy (23 Mar 2020)

alicat said:


> No, not unless she is a vulnerable person needing help/care.
> 
> The French have to fill in forms justifying why they are leaving the house. Think of it like that. Which exemption does your trip out fit in?


I've had my son for 2 weeks, it's a trip straight to his mum's house and back. If he stays here indefinitely he won't be able to see his mum


----------



## DCLane (23 Mar 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I've had my son for 2 weeks, it's a trip straight to his mum's house and back. If he stays here indefinitely he won't be able to see his mum



He can't. Basically he stays with you until this order is lifted.

I can't see my 19yo and it's his birthday tomorrow. Because he lives in student accommodation.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I've had my son for 2 weeks, it's a trip straight to his mum's house and back. If he stays here indefinitely he won't be able to see his mum



That's the sad reality, for many and I'm very sorry. A further reality is in other countries people are going off to hospital and they will never see them again and not even be able to have a funeral.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> He did. But there was no implication that he s issuing an order. That will be next.


Going though parliament at the moment. In the meantime police have over powers that they can use or make do with until they have better ones.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (23 Mar 2020)

So turbo out for fitness exercise during day. Then bike ride with wife when she returns home from work so she also gets exercise. She works for a company that makes the glue that goes into the manufacture of the medical masks.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> So turbo out for fitness exercise during day. Then bike ride with wife when she returns home from work so she also gets exercise. She works for a company that makes the glue that goes into the manufacture of the medical masks.


Similarly, I supply the biggest coffin manufacturer in the UK.


----------



## alicat (23 Mar 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> He did. But there was no implication that he s issuing an order. That will be next.



It's the same thing. No wriggle room.




Electric_Andy said:


> I've had my son for 2 weeks, it's a trip straight to his mum's house and back. If he stays here indefinitely he won't be able to see his mum



Tough! He will have to Skype or use Zoom for the next three weeks or however long it lasts.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> That's the sad reality, for many and I'm very sorry. A further reality is in other countries people are going off to hospital and they will never see them again and not even be able to have a funeral.


Sadly it’s the truth of the current situation we face. It‘s a price we are going to have pay to save lives of ones we know and ones will never know.


----------



## Fab Foodie (23 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I'm trying to keep cools with one of those fans that rotates.....
> The only thing is the rotating bit has broken - and I have to turn it myself.........
> 
> You could say I'm self oscillating !


 Yellow card


----------



## ozboz (23 Mar 2020)

I can’t work from home , but when I get there four of us are working in a house under extensive renovation, I’ll have to talk to the builder , he has a young family , the other lads , one has T2 Diabetes , the other has a daughter that is about to give birth and lives with him , there is only me and Ms boz here, she is classed as a key worker so will more than likely come into contact with lots of persons every day ,


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

@Mo1959 
4 confirmed cases in prison. 
4 different prisons hoping this is not the start of something much bigger.


----------



## johnnyb47 (23 Mar 2020)

Wow, that last announcement from Boris had really tighten things up. I went for a bike ride tonight and all honesty i felt quite self conscious as to whether i was doing the right thing.


----------



## Skibird (23 Mar 2020)

I've had a news alert come through with a little more detail and it says that shops that can stay open are:
Supermarkets, pharmacies, vets, pet shops. hardware stores, retail shops in hospitals, newsagents, petrol stations, banks, post offices, laundrettes and undertakers. You are also allowed to go to work if you can't work from home, but only if you can stay 2m apart from each other. This means that construction sites won't yet have to close, and delivery services can continue. (all just taken from the news).


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> unfortunately this crisis makes me lose faith in many humans, the slashing of ambulance tyres, the stealing of food for a school setup for keyworkers, some people are a total disgrace I don’t even class them as human.




Some of the things that are reported through the news media prior to this situation made me wonder about what was happening to this country.We really shouldn’t be surprised how many people ignored the government’s requests

As I have said before these people motto is F you I’m alright


----------



## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

alicat said:


> You're not really getting it, are you? Two members of this forum have it. One member of my club is in hospital with it.


I do get it but it seems that if I do have to go into the office I can use the bike, and if when I get home I need something food wise I can use the bike to get that, in both instances that would be using the ebike with little effort put in so it would be perfectly reasonably to go out on the road bike in the evening.


----------



## Fab Foodie (23 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> unfortunately this crisis makes me lose faith in many humans, the slashing of ambulance tyres, the stealing of food for a school setup for keyworkers, some people are a total disgrace I don’t even class them as human.


You forgot the stealing of Oxygen cylinders from a hospital in Manchester....


----------



## Pat "5mph" (23 Mar 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> That's not a lockdown.
> That's a strong request.
> 
> He urged us to do it.
> ...


I agree.
Boris should have put the fear into the population, tomorrow people will still gather, not caring.
We went to clear perishable from our work premises (coffee shop in a shopping centre), an over 90's man wanted his usual.
When I told him he should have stayed home, he laughed.
I did tell him a few days ago too, when he inquired if we'd still be open this week. He laughed then too, saying, what, should I not leave home???


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> Glad it's not just me. On a not dissimilar theme, my car keeps insisting on telling me it wants servicing in 4,000 miles time, which is a reasonable time away. However, many vehicles will be due much sooner, so what happens to 'strict' service timetables and the like, and warranty validation if they go over? Trivial at the present I know, just idle musing.


I’m in the same situation.Sheduled service coming up and M O T I did here that MOTwould be delayed for up to three months but you could be prosecuted for driving an unroadworthy vehicle


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> You forgot the stealing of Oxygen cylinders from a hospital in Manchester....


What .... a joke right? I know the what you will say. It’s beyond words. 
You got a source


----------



## SteveF (23 Mar 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> He did. But there was no implication that he s issuing an order. That will be next.


Indeed... I know that members of the forces are being recalled back to bighty from overseas deployments....


----------



## Gunk (23 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> I’m in the same situation.Sheduled service coming up and M O T I did here that MOTwould be delayed for up to three months but you could be prosecuted for driving an unroadworthy vehicle



You won’t be going anywhere, so just cycle instead.


----------



## Fab Foodie (23 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> One outing for exercise permitted - walk, run or cycle


No Triathlons then....


----------



## Ming the Merciless (23 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> I agree.
> Boris should have put the fear into the population, tomorrow people will still gather, not caring.
> We went to clear perishable from our work premises (coffee shop in a shopping centre), an over 90's man wanted his usual.
> When I told him he should have stayed home, he laughed.
> I did tell him a few days ago too, when he inquired if we'd still be open this week. He laughed then too, saying, what, should I not leave home???



Maybe he feels at his age he’ll be going soon anyway, so he may as well have a life. But drowning on dry land, which is what this virus is, for the worst cases, is no way to be, whether you survive it or don’t .


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> No Triathlons then....


make it a 3 day event


----------



## Julia9054 (23 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> No Triathlons then....


Ok on three different days!


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Gov.uk 
now updated 
https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

pretty clear what tonight’s broadcast basically means.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

https://placestovisitthisweekend.com/


----------



## Svendo (23 Mar 2020)

lazybloke said:


> My father-in-law is in his 80s, which according to HMG guidance puts him at "increased risk of severe illness [and he is advised] to be particularly stringent in following social distancing measures". That's before considering his cardiac & other health issues.
> 
> He can barely walk, he lives alone, and yet some of prescriptions (eg morphine) have to be collected _by him personally_. A bit disappointing.



With my limited knowledge, controlled drugs can be delivered, and there should be developing flexibility in this time of new norms. Ultimately it's the prescribers responsibility so if it's proving impossible go back to the GP/Consultant with the problem.


----------



## Fab Foodie (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Similarly, I supply the biggest coffin manufacturer in the UK.


How many people do you kill?


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Only the old need worry .... 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-52010927

He said he owed his life to the NHS staff who “risked their lives to save mine”.
If not for the nurses risking their lives... I wouldn’t be here... Please stay at home and don’t put them under more pressure,” he said.


----------



## perplexed (23 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> I’m in the same situation.Sheduled service coming up and M O T I did here that MOTwould be delayed for up to three months but you could be prosecuted for driving an unroadworthy vehicle



Hopefully the government websites might shake out the detail in the next few days.

The work thing is confusing. My take is that it is ok to go to and from work, but what counts as essential is slightly woolly. Mrs P's work have a special communication system for emergencies such as this, which they insist on testing every few weeks. It contacts via her mobile phone.

Now something has actually happened, there's deathly silence from them...


----------



## alicat (23 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> I do get it but it seems that if I do have to go into the office I can use the bike, and if when I get home I need something food wise I can use the bike to get that, in both instances that would be using the ebike with little effort put in so it would be perfectly reasonably to go out on the road bike in the evening.



I'm not sure you do. It's not essential to go to an office. You should be shopping 'as infrequently as possible and using delivery services if you can'. 

Try thinking about the spirit of the PM's speech and what we are collectively trying to achieve. Your grandparents went to war for their fellow citizens; all you are being asked to do is sit on the sofa.


----------



## johnnyb47 (23 Mar 2020)

Old Boris is doing a sterling job in my opinion. He's come out of weeks of fraught brexit shinnagens to being thrown into these unprecedented times of corona virus. He's trying is best to speak to the nation on a personal level instead of being draconian, to guide and influence us to do the right thing. I've never had much respect for politicians in the past, but i think old Boris is the best man we've got to get us through this awful saga at the moment.


----------



## Fab Foodie (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> What .... a joke right? I know the what you will say. It’s beyond words.
> You got a source


Coronavirus: 'Disgusting' thieves steal oxygen from Manchester hospital https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52011664


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> How many people do you kill?


All of them, hopefully


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> Hopefully the government websites might shake out the detail in the next few days.
> 
> The work thing is confusing. My take is that it is ok to go to and from work, but what counts as essential is slightly woolly. Mrs P's work have a special communication system for emergencies such as this, which they insist on testing every few weeks. It contacts via her mobile phone.
> 
> Now something has actually happened, there's deathly silence from them...



sounds about right


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Coronavirus: 'Disgusting' thieves steal oxygen from Manchester hospital https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52011664



never in doubt really sadly


----------



## Fab Foodie (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> All of them, hopefully


Boom tish!


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

Gunk said:


> You won’t be going anywhere, so just cycle instead.




Can’t carry a week’s shopping on my bike.Not a able to fit panniers


----------



## Tanis8472 (23 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> I’m in the same situation.Sheduled service coming up and M O T I did here that MOTwould be delayed for up to three months but you could be prosecuted for driving an unroadworthy vehicle



i was reading earlier today about that.
garages are classed as key businesses. 
still book mot and have it done. the 3 month mot exemptions are only for lorries and buses.

dont quote me though


----------



## Tanis8472 (23 Mar 2020)

ffs

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/to...exit-party-candidate-on-coronavirus-1-6574945


----------



## DCLane (23 Mar 2020)

The challenge here is that'll take a few days to get this into place, particularly with those who'll ignore the instructions. I'm guessing gps and number plate tracking will be used here.

Then 2 weeks to see the impact. Which is why they'll be in place for at least 3 weeks, although I'm predicting 6-8 weeks. British Cycling and others have cancelled everything until the end of June, which is expecting 12 weeks.

History in the making ...


----------



## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

alicat said:


> I'm not sure you do. It's not essential to go to an office. You should be shopping 'as infrequently as possible and using delivery services if you can'.
> 
> Try thinking about the spirit of the PM's speech and what we are collectively trying to achieve. Your grandparents went to war for their fellow citizens; all you are being asked to do is sit on the sofa.


If you had read the thread you would have noted my employer was told last Friday it would be 4 weeks before their was the capacity in the IT system for everyone to work at home so I might have to go into work and oddly I might just need to buy some food at some point whereas you no doubt are one of those who have stripped the supermarket shelves bear and have a year or more supply. As I have a food allergy there is no way I can use a delivery service as they are now automatically substituting out of stock items with what they have regardless of its ingredients and if I ate what they provided it would be another drain on the NHS.


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

alicat said:


> I'm not sure you do. It's not essential to go to an office. You should be shopping 'as infrequently as possible and using delivery services if you can'.
> 
> Try thinking about the spirit of the PM's speech and what we are collectively trying to achieve. Your grandparents went to war for their fellow citizens; all you are being asked to do is sit on the sofa.


----------



## slowmotion (23 Mar 2020)

alicat said:


> I'm not sure you do. It's not essential to go to an office. You should be shopping 'as infrequently as possible and using delivery services if you can'.
> 
> Try thinking about the spirit of the PM's speech and what we are collectively trying to achieve. Your grandparents went to war for their fellow citizens; all you are being asked to do is sit on the sofa.


Have you tried getting a delivery from a supermarket recently? It's impossible round here ( West London ). Ocado had 17,000 people queueing online to get a delivery slot this evening...…...and when you got to the front of the queue...…..you were told that there were no slots available.


----------



## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> If you had read the thread you would have noted my employer was told last Friday it would be 4 weeks before their was the capacity in the IT system for everyone to work at home so I might have to go into work and oddly I might just need to buy some food at some point whereas you no doubt are one of those who have stripped the supermarket shelves bear and have a year or more supply. As I have a food allergy there is no way I can use a delivery service as they are now automatically substituting out of stock items with what they have regardless of its ingredients and if I ate what they provided it would be another drain on the NHS.


Can’t you shop on way home from work maybe?


----------



## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

Agree with most of what you say .But a lot of people are unable to get delivery slots for three weeks


----------



## Mo1959 (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Mo1959
> 4 confirmed cases in prison.
> 4 different prisons hoping this is not the start of something much bigger.


Really feel for my old colleagues. I heard the private prison Addiewell has already had a riot.


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Hopefully it will soon just be supermarkets and chemists.


Why no better food shops? Supermarkets are only good at packets. Their "fresh" stuff isn't very.


----------



## Salty seadog (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> All of them, hopefully


----------



## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not a Boris fan by any means. But thought he did a pretty good speech just now.


He did? Shame they didn't televise that one instead!


----------



## Salty seadog (23 Mar 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> dont quote me though



C'mon, you're not new here.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Guidelines published 
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...way-from-others#delivering-these-new-measures


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## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I agree with it all, I just wish it had been done two weeks ago, which would have reduced the death toll massively.


I wish they'd tried something between "Would you mind awfully..." and lockdown earlier.


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## ozboz (23 Mar 2020)

Well that’s my Q answered about the building trade, Ms boz has just had manager on and been told to stand down because of the continual contact with the public , problem is a lot of builders I know have had projects pulled due to uncertainty , which has a knock on effect , but that’s on of them , we have to stay safe ,,,


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## Beebo (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> make it a 3 day event


On horses?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Guidelines published
> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...way-from-others#delivering-these-new-measures



Link also posted as a sticky for reference in Cafe/NACA/Personal Matters and Health.


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## Salty seadog (23 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Have you tried getting a delivery from a supermarket recently? It's impossible round here ( West London ). Ocado had 17,000 people queueing online to get a delivery slot this evening...…...and when you got to the front of the queue...…..you were told that there were no slots available.


After today's announcement there'll be nowt at all on the shelves. Not even tinned soft spined fish.


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## SpokeyDokey (23 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> Well that’s my Q answered about the building trade, Ms boz has just had manager on and been told to stand down because of the continual contact with the public , problem is a lot of builders I know have had projects pulled due to uncertainty , which has a knock on effect , but that’s on of them , we have to stay safe ,,,



To be fair that's a specific example about the building trade.

Builders _can_ still work whilst observing the 2m rule and minimising the time outside your home.


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## AuroraSaab (23 Mar 2020)

I hope when this is all over, all those who stole equipment, scammed old folk on the doorsteps, or broke any law that endangered people during this crisis, get absolutely hammered by the courts. Some serious jail time is in order for folk like the oiks who slashed an ambulance's 4 tyres yesterday whilst the crew were on a call out.


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## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> So Boris has done it.Hope those people that massed at the seaside resorts mountain tops and tourist traps enjoyed there day out at the expense of those of us that practiced social distancing.Watch them moaning about there I civil liberties.Tough do do Take care and good luck.


Can those of us who obeyed the social distancing complain about the loss of liberties which might have been avoided by acting sooner?


----------



## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Can’t you shop on way home from work maybe?


For some things it could be possible but the local stores generally seem to operate as a cartel and if one stocks a particular allergy free item the others do not meaning a trek around them all for some items. Also as far as I can see apart from waiting for 3 weeks for a delivery slot they are also not accepting new customers anyway. The lack of attention to people with food allergies is being raised belatedly by the appropriate bodies with the supermarkets, a free click and collect service when they actually have the specific items would be a start but it would be nice if they extended that to a free delivery service as well as somehow in store enforcing their sale only to those that need them as far too much has been sold in the last week the non allergy sufferers.


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## perplexed (23 Mar 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> After today's announcement there'll be nowt at all on the shelves. Not even tinned soft spined fish.



When I was in the supermarket today doing my folks' shopping, I saw one old chap eyeing up a Fray Bentos - things must be desperate. I once had a look at the ingredients list for one of those things and it frightened the willies out of me just holding it.


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## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Anyone found anything about walking dogs? 
I not wanting to find a way round this just want to know if walking the dog is your daily exercise limit. 
I‘m guessing it is. Just wondering if come the morning if that’s both me and the hound done for the day.


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## Johnno260 (23 Mar 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> I hope when this is all over, all those who stole equipment, scammed old folk on the doorsteps, or broke any law that endangered people during this crisis, get absolutely hammered by the courts. Some serious jail time is in order for folk like the oiks who slashed an ambulance's 4 tyres yesterday whilst the crew were on a call out.



jail time isn’t harsh enough


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## Mike_P (23 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> jail time isn’t harsh enough


Porton Down ?


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## potsy (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone found anything about walking dogs?
> I not wanting to find a way round this just want to know if walking the dog is your daily exercise limit.
> I‘m guessing it is. Just wondering if come the morning if that’s both me and the hound done for the day.


I suppose each person in the household could walk the dog as their exercise? 

That's what we will be doing I think.


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## oldfatfool (23 Mar 2020)

Doesn't appear to stipulate how long your cycle ride can be.....


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## SpokeyDokey (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone found anything about walking dogs?
> I not wanting to find a way round this just want to know if walking the dog is your daily exercise limit.
> I‘m guessing it is. Just wondering if come the morning if that’s both me and the hound done for the day.



My deduction would be one exercise session per day with or without Fido. Presumably Fido could get as many walks per day as the number of people in the home that are prepared/capable of walking the mutt if they were to go solo.


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## SpokeyDokey (23 Mar 2020)

potsy said:


> I suppose each person in the household could walk the dog as their exercise?
> 
> That's what we will be doing I think.



@potsy Great minds think alike but yours is obviously the greater as you beat me to it.


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## alicat (23 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> If you had read the thread you would have noted my employer was told last Friday it would be 4 weeks before their was the capacity in the IT system for everyone to work at home so I might have to go into work and oddly I might just need to buy some food at some point *whereas you no doubt are one of those who have stripped the supermarket shelves bear and have a year or more supply. *As I have a food allergy there is no way I can use a delivery service as they are now automatically substituting out of stock items with what they have regardless of its ingredients and if I ate what they provided it would be another drain on the NHS.



Not true and gratuitously offensive.


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## pawl (23 Mar 2020)

potsy said:


> I suppose each person in the household could walk the dog as their exercise?
> 
> That's what we will be doing I think.



Sounds like a plan.


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## oldfatfool (23 Mar 2020)

It all seems a bit futile to me, those most likely to catch it, nurses, go to work, go home play with their kids then kids go to school to mingle with other protected trades kids etc etc.


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## slowmotion (23 Mar 2020)

My guess is that if you go to somewhere sufficiently remote, nobody is going to care.


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## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Have you tried getting a delivery from a supermarket recently? It's impossible round here ( West London ). Ocado had 17,000 people queueing online to get a delivery slot this evening...…...and when you got to the front of the queue...…..you were told that there were no slots available.


Impossible here near Lynn too AFAICT


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## ozboz (23 Mar 2020)

Skibird said:


> I've had a news alert come through with a little more detail and it says that shops that can stay open are:
> Supermarkets, pharmacies, vets, pet shops. hardware stores, retail shops in hospitals, newsagents, petrol stations, banks, post offices, laundrettes and undertakers. You are also allowed to go to work if you can't work from home, but only if you can stay 2m apart from each other. This means that construction sites won't yet have to close, and delivery services can continue. (all just taken from the news).





Fab Foodie said:


> You forgot the stealing of Oxygen cylinders from a hospital in Manchester....



my Bro works forBOC in Manchester, he tells me that cylinders are disappearing all over the place ,


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## SpokeyDokey (23 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Can those of us who obeyed the social distancing complain about the loss of liberties which might have been avoided by acting sooner?



I think the answer is 'yes'.

Do I get a prize?


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## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

potsy said:


> I suppose each person in the household could walk the dog as their exercise?
> 
> That's what we will be doing I think.


Well that’s 2 walks only 3 days a week then. That’s if the Mrs 73 will be getting any time off as this thing gets going.


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## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> Well that’s my Q answered about the building trade, Ms boz has just had manager on and been told to stand down because of the continual contact with the public , problem is a lot of builders I know have had projects pulled due to uncertainty , which has a knock on effect , but that’s on of them , we have to stay safe ,,,


Might need some hospitals building or extending.

Or crematoriums.


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## 8mph (23 Mar 2020)

*Mod note:*

Medical advice guidance deleted - please see sticky at the top of this (NACA) section.


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## SpokeyDokey (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Well that’s 2 walks only 3 days a week then. That’s if the Mrs 73 will be getting any time off as this thing gets going.



If you love the beast here's your answer - not sure where the crap goes though:


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## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> For some things it could be possible but the local stores generally seem to operate as a cartel and if one stocks a particular allergy free item the others do not meaning a trek around them all for some items. Also as far as I can see apart from waiting for 3 weeks for a delivery slot they are also not accepting new customers anyway. The lack of attention to people with food allergies is being raised belatedly by the appropriate bodies with the supermarkets, a free click and collect service when they actually have the specific items would be a start but it would be nice if they extended that to a free delivery service as well as somehow in store enforcing their sale only to those that need them as far too much has been sold in the last week the non allergy sufferers.


No supermarket close to work? Or en route with a detour?


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## Rusty Nails (23 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> My guess is that if you go to somewhere sufficiently remote, nobody is going to care.



About what?


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## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> When I was in the supermarket today doing my folks' shopping, I saw one old chap eyeing up a Fray Bentos - things must be desperate. I once had a look at the ingredients list for one of those things and it frightened the *willies* out of me just holding it.


I think that’s the main ingredient


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## stephec (23 Mar 2020)

Unless the armed forces are put on the streets and given legal powers to do the job, how's it going to be enforced? 

There's hardly enough coppers around under normal circumstances.


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## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> If you love the beast here's your answer - not sure where the crap goes though:
> 
> View attachment 510078


He’d hate it he’s a bag of nerves as it is


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## glasgowcyclist (23 Mar 2020)

Was this unsourced stuff not posted previously and removed by mods for being unevidenced and unsourced, dodgy “advice”?

Reported for Moderators’ consideration.

*Edit/Mod note:* original content deleted; thanks for the report.


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## slowmotion (23 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> About what?


About how many times you go out of where you live.


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## Unkraut (23 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Can those of us who obeyed the social distancing complain about the loss of liberties which might have been avoided by acting sooner?


Finally got off the phone to my sister in England (phew!) and she agreed with me that the severity of the restrictions might well be to do with the big party yesterday. Many people are being sensible, far too many however not and so a clamp-down has resulted.


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## Rusty Nails (23 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> Sorry, but most of that's been deemed fake many times.



Apologies for posting this again, but it is so apt


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## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

Well, as i've been notified i'm in the higher risk group, i'm going to try to comply with the NHS saying i should shield myself and not leave my house at all for 12 weeks. It'll definitely be a challenge and a right royal pain in the ass, but i guess i have to make the effort to try not to add to the huge strain the NHS will be under. Obviously i'd also rather not get this virus.
But...... I'm skeptical that the infrastructure will run smoothly for the 1.5 million people like me that have also been told to do this. If i cant get food delivered, or these government food parcels.... then obviously i'm not going to sit here and starve, and i definitely wouldn't let my dog go without food. So then i would have no choice but to leave the house.
We'll see how it goes.


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## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

France increasing fines to €130ish first offence, up over €3000 for repeat offenders. Exercise limited to 1hr within 1km of home. (France24)

South Africa going into full army-backed lockdown for 3 weeks, much earlier in the outbreak than the UK. (BBC TV)


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## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

stephec said:


> Unless the armed forces are put on the streets and given legal powers to do the job, how's it going to be enforced?
> 
> There's hardly enough coppers around under normal circumstances.


That not something to be wished for lightly. Somethings that are seen as temporary have a habit of hanging around. 
police in the county is still based on founding principle. “The police are the people and people are the police” once we lose that we are finished.


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

iancity said:


> Apparently that was on FB last week and discounted as 'not true' ! i was just about to send it to everyone I know ffs
> I really have no idea what is fake news and what is not nowadays ;-(



It's quite easy. 

1. Is it from a reputable source?
2. There is no 2.

If in doubt if a source is reputable, then it isn't.


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## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

Evans Cycles staying open as an essential business apparently


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## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> But...... I'm skeptical that the infrastructure will run smoothly for the 1.5 million people like me that have also been told to do this. If i cant get food delivered, or these government food parcels.... then obviously i'm not going to sit here and starve, and i definitely wouldn't let my dog go without food. So then i would have no choice but to leave the house.
> We'll see how it goes.


www.covidmutualaid.org may be able to help fetch food if your infra is as bad as ours.


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## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> Well, as i've been notified i'm in the higher risk group, i'm going to try to comply with the NHS saying i should shield myself and not leave my house at all for 12 weeks. It'll definitely be a challenge and a right royal pain in the ass, but i guess i have to make the effort to try not to add to the huge strain the NHS will be under. Obviously i'd also rather not get this virus.
> But...... I'm skeptical that the infrastructure will run smoothly for the 1.5 million people like me that have also been told to do this. If i cant get food delivered, or these government food parcels.... then obviously i'm not going to sit here and starve, and i definitely wouldn't let my dog go without food. So then i would have no choice but to leave the house.
> We'll see how it goes.



know anyone who can get you stuff to keep you going? Until the food parcels get going ?


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## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Evans Cycles staying open as an essential business apparently
> 
> View attachment 510080


Not sure they are as it stands.


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## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It's quite easy.
> 
> 1. Is it from a reputable source?
> 2. There is no 2.
> ...


That's why the latest rehash claims to be from a hospital.


----------



## Johnno260 (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Evans Cycles staying open as an essential business apparently
> 
> View attachment 510080


means I'm screwed then as my employer has shown zero care for a sales hub, all we need is a internet conn and the phones forwarded. but they insist we be in the office.


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> That's why the latest rehash claims to be from a hospital.



Sure, it's claimed to be.

But is an actual source provided?

If not, assume it's questionable. 

Not complicated.


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## Rusty Nails (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> That not something to be wished for lightly. Somethings that are seen as temporary have a habit of hanging around.
> police in the county is still based on founding principle. “The police are the people and people are the police” once we lose that we are finished.



I agree with the principle, but to avoid military involvement will require the people (or the overwhelming majority of the people) to act responsibility. An effective police force needs the people to self police as well.


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## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> means I'm screwed then as my employer has shown zero care for a sales hub, all we need is a internet conn and the phones forwarded. but they insist we be in the office.


In which case the 2m rule applies to office space.


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## PpPete (23 Mar 2020)

potsy said:


> I suppose each person in the household could walk the dog as their exercise?
> 
> That's what we will be doing I think.



Likewise, combining each person's exercise with dog walking which although Boris didn't mention it is just as essential as going t- dog walking.

We can live within both the letter of and the spirit of all this except this "going shopping as infrequently as possible"
I've avoided panic buying so far, and I've been lucky enough to be able to buy enough loo roll and rice to be going on with.... but it now seems to be necessary to make daily (or more frequent) trips to all the various local supermarkets in a forlorn hunt for some basic things we are now running short of:
flour, yeast, pasta, ibuprofen/paracetamol, dog biscuits, all of which have disappeared from the shelves. 
Individually, none of these are "essential"... l could make (rather coarse) pasta, or even live without it for a couple of weeks, and if it came to it, I could probably dream up a recipe for dog biscuits, but neither are possible without flour. Meanwhile supermarket shelves are filled with a million kinds of processed foods, easter eggs, plenty of meat (which we don't eat), 20 different brands of yoghurt... i can even still buy some rather nice soft french cheeses from unpasteurised milk - which have long been almost unobtainable in their country of origin! 

Sorry Boris - but right now "infrequently as possible" = "more frequently than usual" for many of us.


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## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

Anyone heard anything about Boris's vague promise of test kits?

Spain has their hands on 640 000 today. They have already ordered millions more.


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## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> That not something to be wished for lightly. Somethings that are seen as temporary have a habit of hanging around.
> police in the county is still based on founding principle. “The police are the people and people are the police” once we lose that we are finished.


Could be interesting in Norn Ireland


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## glasgowcyclist (23 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> That's why the latest rehash claims to be from a hospital.



It doesn’t matter what claim is made in these posts pretending to be medical advice they must be linked to a credible source.

The sticky at the top of the forum tells members:


> to not post any medical advice at all re Corona Virus without the source quoted and/or linked to a reputable medical authority/news source.


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## slowmotion (23 Mar 2020)

I just love "inside information".
[media]
]View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nNwm9wDbu4[/media]


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## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> know anyone who can get you stuff to keep you going? Until the food parcels get going ?



Friends will have enough problems of their own and most of them live too far from me... and i dont have family that live anywhere near me. A couple of my neighbours would help out if necessary.
Apart from stuff like bread & milk, i reckon i'll be ok for meals for 10/12 days. I have enough dog food for about 3 weeks. So no probs for a while.


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## DCLane (23 Mar 2020)

You'll be OK @Smudge if you've been included.

I'm not involved with one of the hubs but two people I know are. There's massive organisation activities going on behind the scenes ready to get going quickly.


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## vickster (23 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Doesn't appear to stipulate how long your cycle ride can be.....


It says to minimise time outside
An hour might be acceptable, 4 or 5 less so
From the .gov link

Shopping for basic necessities, for example food and medicine, which must be as infrequent as possible.

One form of exercise a day, for example a run, walk, or cycle - alone or with members of your household.

Any medical need, or to provide care or to help a vulnerable person.

Travelling to and from work, but only where this absolutely cannot be done from home.

These four reasons are exceptions - even when doing these activities, you should be minimising time spent outside of the home and ensuring you are 2 metres apart from anyone outside of your household.


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## Joey Shabadoo (23 Mar 2020)

> Soldiers tackling Spain's coronavirus epidemic by disinfecting residential care homes have found a number of elderly people abandoned and left for dead in their beds, the country's defence minister has said.
> "The army has seen some totally abandoned elderly people – even some who were dead in their beds,” Margarita Robles told the Ana Rosa TV programme.
> Those responsible would be met with "the full weight of the law", the minister added.



from the BBC - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52000039

This thing is bringing the worst out in some people


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## StuAff (23 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> When I was in the supermarket today doing my folks' shopping, I saw one old chap eyeing up a Fray Bentos - things must be desperate. I once had a look at the ingredients list for one of those things and it frightened the willies out of me just holding it.


When me & my mum were doing shop pt1 in Morrisons on Saturday (Lidl was needed for further items), Fray Bentos were one of the things that were well-stocked…
Can't help thinking that someone needed to create rumours about foods to treat the virus. I was thinking Pot Noodle, taramasalata, Ready Brek…


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## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> from the BBC - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52000039
> 
> This thing is bringing the worst out in some people


Horrific


----------



## Smudge (23 Mar 2020)

At least i'm at home and not stuck abroad like some Brits, it must be horrendously scary for those that cant get home. I also have no financial or work worries.
A lot of people are in a far, far worse situation than myself.


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## Unkraut (23 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> “The police are the people and people are the police” once we lose that we are finished.


I can see the point in not wishing for a military police force, but in the current circumstances (despite not living in the UK at the moment) it would be nice to see both the police and the Army as 'us' who are against 'them' - the anti-social element who could be endangering lives.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> Friends will have enough problems of their own and most of them live too far from me... and i dont have family that live anywhere near me. A couple of my neighbours would help out if necessary.
> Apart from stuff like bread & milk, i reckon i'll be ok for meals for 10/12 days. I have enough dog food for about 3 weeks. So no probs for a while.


As @DCLane say’s it will be ok. At 1st it maybe a bit batted round the edges. But will soon get sorted civil service lives for this stuff. Anyway the army are on to it they know his shift stuff and soon get things moving.


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## Jody (23 Mar 2020)

Does anyone know if it is only retail business shut. I'm currently working from home trialling it to make sure it all works but they wanted me back in on Thursday. It all works fine so I can technically work from home. The text seems a little ambiguous as what is necessary and what is essential. I dont fancy going into the office even if it is spread out a bit more.


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## mjr (23 Mar 2020)

Jody said:


> Does anyone know if it is only retail business shut. I'm currently working from home trialling it to make sure it all works but they wanted me back in on Thursday. It all works fine so I can technically work from home. The text seems a little ambiguous as what is necessary and what is essential. I dont fancy going into the office even if it is spread out a bit more.


If you can technically, you should IMO. Any bosses who try to stop telework will be on very thin ice for an unsafe workplace if workers catch the virus in any number.


----------



## marinyork (23 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> If you can technically, you should IMO. Any bosses who try to stop telework will be on very thin ice for an unsafe workplace if workers catch the virus in any number.



This is the sort of nonsense that went on in Italy until a few days ago when Conte finally shut down loads of offices and construction sites. We need to learn from Italy. If we close it down now we're ahead of Italy on that one.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I'm confused about what is classed as absolutely necessary with regard to seeing family. Me and my son would have been isolating from Saturday to Thursday, can he still go and see his mum if no symptoms?


Over here you can't unless its is to deal with carer duties, a natter about the crisis and things in general does not count as necessary.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I can see the point in not wishing for a military police force, but in the current circumstances (despite not living in the UK at the moment) it would be nice to see both the police and the Army as 'us' who are against 'them' - the anti-social element who could be endangering lives.



So we deploy them as you say do we arm them as well ? 
why not use a few water cannon for good measure. 
The founding principle in the Uk is policing by consent. We lose that and it’s gone for ever. The army are needed for what they do best. In times like this Planning , logistics, and building things in quick time. Anyway we’ve not enough of them to go round in the place.
Anyone thought if we go round heavy handed and round up on mass. Just where are we going to put them ? who’s going to process them ? who’s going to care for them ? 
The rules round children (10 up to 18) in custody are more than enough to clog the the whole thing up never mind anything else. Every one takes up time of 3 staff as a minimum. Not forgetting only some types of cell can be used for a child.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> That's not a lockdown.
> That's a strong request.
> 
> He urged us to do it.
> ...


It was not the message I hoped to hear.


----------



## DCLane (23 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> It was not the message I hoped to hear.



Basically a politician needs to bring the population with him.

Don't do that and you get civil unrest. I've lived in N.I. during that and it's not pleasant.


----------



## tom73 (23 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> It was not the message I hoped to hear.



Official text from government guidance 

Every citizen is instructed to comply with these new measures.

The Government will therefore be ensuring the police and other relevant authorities have the powers to enforce them, including through fines and dispersing gatherings where people do not comply.

The police and LA already have powers in place. Parks town , city centres some LA have already public space protection orders in place. which pretty much cover dispersal.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> Some of the things that are reported through the news media prior to this situation made me wonder about what was happening to this country.We really shouldn’t be surprised how many people ignored the government’s requests
> 
> As I have said before these people motto is F you I’m alright


This behaviour has been going on for a long time. Heating oil thefts from pensioners living in the Scottish highlands, fire service being ambushed by small mobs throwing bricks and occasionally petrol bombs, police helicopter pilots having a concerted effort of laser pointers directed onto their craft, drones being flown within the boundaries of airports, paving slabs being dropped from motorway bridges.
The terrors visited on the fire service seem to have gone on since the invention of the hose.
Only once have I been a potential victim of the scrote tribe, travelling on the M60 near the Trafford Centre at the start of school holidays. A brick I think it was dropped from a footbridge by one of four kids, I swapped two lanes very, very quickly to avoid it. Had I been hemmed in by thick traffic I might not be sitting here typing the above.


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## randynewmanscat (24 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> Basically a politician needs to bring the population with him.
> 
> Don't do that and you get civil unrest. I've lived in N.I. during that and it's not pleasant.


Then I am afraid your fellow Britons are cack. Measures were put in place here, very strong measures and there has been mostly compliance.


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## Jody (24 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> If you can technically, you should IMO. Any bosses who try to stop telework will be on very thin ice for an unsafe workplace if workers catch the virus in any number.



But I think they could play the need for somebody to be in work for the premise to be open, warehouse to operate. Yet the message is you shouldn't leave your house unless absolutely necessary. Gatherings aren't allowed unless for business. So your ok to mix with other people at work but should somehow stay away from everyone who isn't in your house. Cant have more than two people together but 3 or 4 people in an office is ok? I don't get it.


----------



## Smudge (24 Mar 2020)

I see Sports Direct have refused to close, saying they are an 'essential shop' as they supply sports equipment for people to exercise.


----------



## randynewmanscat (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Official text from government guidance
> 
> Every citizen is instructed to comply with these new measures.
> 
> ...


In his address I wanted to hear him tell the people that they had not listened to his previous advice and that measures would be brought in to make those people toe the line. He did not join the dots and admonish the people who have previously ignored all the pleas to stay out of each others way as best they could.
The previous mixed messages and the now dropped herd immunity plan have not helped him and he was in no position to point the finger at the willfully deaf, that much is clear. 
I grant that he had a steep hill to climb between the "we don't need no steenkin experts" cult, his own father saying he would defo be down the pub with his chums and his friend Tim Martin telling people to get down the local spoons because its no worse than buying your essential goods at the supermarket.


----------



## Saluki (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone found anything about walking dogs?
> I not wanting to find a way round this just want to know if walking the dog is your daily exercise limit.
> I‘m guessing it is. Just wondering if come the morning if that’s both me and the hound done for the day.





potsy said:


> I suppose each person in the household could walk the dog as their exercise?
> 
> That's what we will be doing I think.


I am concerned about this. I live alone except for my 2 hounds. Only me to walk them. I plan on one long walk but will have to take them out a couple of times to relieve themselves. They can’t be expected to wait 24 hours. We all wee more than once every 24 hours.


According to work, we are key workers because of the nature of the work, our project, is involved with. I am currently on a phased return and working from head office. I asked to take paperwork home to process on my secure laptop but they said ‘no’ unless I have symptoms. An email has gone to everyone already saying ‘business as usual’ or words to that effect.


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## randynewmanscat (24 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> I see Sports Direct have refused to close, saying they are an 'essential shop' as they supply sports equipment for people to exercise.


Mike Ashley, tsk, tsk. He has a license to conduct trade, I'll get the popcorn.


----------



## randynewmanscat (24 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> He did no such thing. He posed a question. Economics and life are intertwined, a global recession may cause more loss of life than the virus


A global recession will barely be noticed in most African countries or rural India. The people in those places are going to see more loss of life due to this pandemic than countries with stock markets, property bubbles and advanced healthcare, by a long way.


----------



## slowmotion (24 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> In his address I wanted to hear him tell the people that they had not listened to his previous advice and that measures would be brought in to make those people toe the line. He did not join the dots and admonish the people who have previously ignored all the pleas to stay out of each others way as best they could.
> The previous mixed messages and the now dropped herd immunity plan have not helped him and he was in no position to point the finger at the willfully deaf, that much is clear.
> I grant that he had a steep hill to climb between the "we don't need no steenkin experts" cult, his own father saying he would defo be down the pub with his chums and his friend Tim Martin telling people to get down the local spoons because its no worse than buying your essential goods at the supermarket.


Will you ever stop trying to spread your messianic vision of online hope?


----------



## steve292 (24 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> This is a genuine advert from a company in my county. The guarantee was, apparently, that if you got it, they'd give you your money back. They've taken it down now and are not taking bookings before June.
> 
> View attachment 510002


I've used them before. Never again


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## randynewmanscat (24 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Will you ever stop trying to spread your messianic vision of online hope?


Probably not, stupid is my middle name.


----------



## slowmotion (24 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Probably not, stupid is my middle name.


----------



## wafter (24 Mar 2020)

Perhaps I'm just bitter because I don't like to have my movements curtailed or be made to feel guilty about / second guess my decisions to go out on the bike.. but does anyone else feel that the measures applied to private activites seem excessively draconian compared to the vague, subjective and lax advice for businesses?

While I'm all for many of the wider-reaching measures (public gatherings, closure of non-essential stuff, minimising trips out etc) It seems to me that the government is taking a hard line with indiviual activities while leaving the door wide open for some decidely non-essential businesses to carry on regardless at their own behest.

Rightly or wrongly I resent being made to feel like an irresponsible scumbag for daring to venture outside the house into the clean, open, sparsely-populated air more than once per day, while Sports direct can apparently force its workers to come into contact with many, many people daily while flogging them an essential pair of trackie bottoms


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## slowmotion (24 Mar 2020)

Crikey! Is this the "Tory Scum let their pals out to infect us all while we have to suffer" thread?


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> my Bro works forBOC in Manchester, he tells me that cylinders are disappearing all over the place ,


Worsley? I used to to work for BOC (Morden and then Thame) back in the good old days (30 years ago)!


----------



## Pale Rider (24 Mar 2020)

Boris has done a good job to, whether by luck or design, introduce a near full lock down gradually.

Whatever the government orders and whatever enforcement they can deploy, public acceptance plays a large part in making the restrictions work.

Had Boris gone straight into 'that's it, you're all stopping in the house' a few weeks ago, there would have been widespread adverse reaction.



wafter said:


> Perhaps I'm just bitter because I don't like to have my movements curtailed or be made to feel guilty about / second guess my decisions to go out on the bike.. but does anyone else feel that the measures applied to private activites seem excessively draconian compared to the vague, subjective and lax advice for businesses?



The key aim is to stop households mixing with other households.

The measures against business were as you describe, but their main purpose was to persuade households to play the game without having to directly tell them to do so.



randynewmanscat said:


> In his address I wanted to hear him tell the people that they had not listened to his previous advice and that measures would be brought in to make those people toe the line



Ticking off those who misbehaved would have annoyed them - no one likes being told off - making them less likely to follow the latest advice.

It was a tactically smarter decision for Boris to swerve what's gone on up to now, and focus on what he wants to go on in the future.


----------



## Rocky (24 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Boris has done a good job to, whether by luck or design, introduce a near full lock down gradually.
> 
> Whatever the government orders and whatever enforcement they can deploy, public acceptance plays a large part in making the restrictions work.
> 
> ...


I’m not sure we have got where we are in any planned way but I agree that it has probably been the best route to an inevitable lockdown. Too fast and people would have complained. Too slow and more people would have died. Whatever went on politically behind the scenes, I’m 100% behind the lockdown and am amazed at the level of public acceptance. So someone has done a good job.


----------



## Proto (24 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Worsley? I used to to work for BOC (Morden and then Thame) back in the good old days (30 years ago)!



Then there is a good chance you knew plant engineer Alasdair McVarish? Interesting man!


----------



## Levo-Lon (24 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> I see Sports Direct have refused to close, saying they are an 'essential shop' as they supply sports equipment for people to exercise.




I was about to comment on that too.. I think there's enough cheap tracksuits in circulation covering our overweight population


----------



## Pale Rider (24 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m 100% behind the lockdown and am amazed at the level of public acceptance.



So am I, but it is still early days.

One of the profs spoke of restriction fatigue - people will comply well for a few weeks, but maybe not for a few months.

I think it's another wise move by Boris to specify a time span for the latest measures.

The length of that span is a matter of judgement, long enough to be effective, but short enough for the public not to see it as a life sentence.

Specifying a review after three weeks seems to me as good an answer as any.


----------



## Levo-Lon (24 Mar 2020)

Well I've been told I'm an essential worker.. maintenance person? Well I know I'm doing everything at work bar actual care work.

I shall be asking my manager today about social distancing and what we do about mixing with other staff who may or may not be social distancing outside of work.

I need to protect my wife who is staying at home and myself.
I'm doing all I can to comply but I won't be bullied by my employer if others are not taking this seriously.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> I see Sports Direct have refused to close, saying they are an 'essential shop' as they supply sports equipment for people to exercise.


I think a cross between public back lash and a "friendly" visit from LA officers and police. Will see a change in "heart" AKA some public duty corporate message.


----------



## Rocky (24 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Well I've been told I'm an essential worker.. maintenance person? Well I know I'm doing everything at work bar actual care work.
> 
> I shall be asking my manager today about social distancing and what we do about mixing with other staff who may or may not be social distancing outside of work.
> 
> ...


I hope those discussions with your boss work out well. The last thing any employer should be doing is putting the family of workers at any greater risk than is necessary. Let us know how it works out.


----------



## Levo-Lon (24 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I hope those discussions with your boss work out well. The last thing any employer should be doing is putting the family of workers at any greater risk than is necessary. Let us know how it works out.



My main concern is the kitchen, we "5-6" staff are all working in a small area getting the food out.
You can't do this without being inches away from each other.
Just washing hands is Not enough.

It's a tricky situation , I'm happy to make sure our residents get fed and care, I'm also expecting to catch this virus over the next few weeks unless we can improve our working habit's... My wife is really unhappy about it. She has various health issues so I can't blame her for feeling insecure about this situation


----------



## Adam4868 (24 Mar 2020)

They need to sort a payment package of some sort for the self employed or else a lot are going to see themselves as essential workers.


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## perplexed (24 Mar 2020)

I'm hoping that to aid compliance, the news channels stop booking the more notorious stirrers.


----------



## Mike_P (24 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> No supermarket close to work? Or en route with a detour?


Co-op with limited range on route home or slightly more distant an Aldi with no obvious facility for locking a bike to. Asda in town is a lunchtime possibilty if it's not been too hammered hence even in times of good availability the need to trek further and taking the flour I use as an example the only stockist is Sainsbury's on the far side of town, not that they have had any for a couple of weeks now and on line the maker is refusing to take any more orders


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## Buck (24 Mar 2020)

Sports Direct are getting some robust feedback on Twitter.


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## Levo-Lon (24 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> They need to sort a payment package of some sort for the self employed or else a lot are going to see themselves as essential workers.




Trouble with most self employed is they rely on people employing them.
The country is in shock..
I'm afraid that wont be happening.

Government wont save a lot of businesses but they will need to make sure the people get food and stay housed..really crazy situation.
My sister is a self employed hairdresser, but her husband is a retired copper,they will survive.
Lots wont have that added security.

My son in law's major car dealership has closed ,its sites all over Cambridgeshire.
They are a all makes franchise.
No we have a situation where an essential worker needs to get to work but wont get the car parts to repair or be able to get AA RAC to tow it anywhere to be fixed , same for all of us


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

Proto said:


> Then there is a good chance you knew plant engineer Alasdair McVarish? Interesting man!


Hi Proto, I didn’t work on the gases plant, but in a small R&D team on-site working on food freezing with LN2. Never the twain met....


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Mar 2020)

perplexed said:


> I'm hoping that to aid compliance, the news channels stop booking the more notorious stirrers.



Maybe it's time to remind them they exist to provide the news as a service. They're not supposed to chase ratings in the name of entertainment.


----------



## Adam4868 (24 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Trouble with most self employed is they rely on people employing them.
> The country is in shock..
> I'm afraid that wont be happening.
> 
> ...


It's not the same for all though regarding financial help.Seems like the self employed are not getting anything at the moment.


----------



## Mike_P (24 Mar 2020)

Intrigued what the big supermarkets are going to do, are they going to barrier off the household, clothing, toy etc sections. Are Lidl and Aldi going to stop their centre aisle offers, seemingly not judging by the promo Aldi have just emailed listing their latest non essentials offers.


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Intrigued what the big supermarkets are going to do, are they going to barrier off the household, clothing, toy etc sections. Are Lidl and Aldi going to stop their centre aisle offers, seemingly not judging by the promo Aldi have just emailed listing their latest non essentials offers.


Presumably the epos systems can be fixed so non food lines don’t go through? It’s already limiting numbers of purchases.
Aldi’s promo was presumably planned months if not longer ago


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m not sure we have got where we are in any planned way but I agree that it has probably been the best route to an inevitable lockdown. Too fast and people would have complained. Too slow and more people would have died. Whatever went on politically behind the scenes, I’m 100% behind the lockdown and am amazed at the level of public acceptance. So someone has done a good job.


It still seems to be to be part of the herd-immunity/peak flattening strategy by letting the virus run to close towards the NHS max capacity and then put the brakes on as hard as possible. 
To do this is clearly a balance between medical need and population acceptance of the size of the problem. As the govt. has access to the curve data from Italy and Spain let's hope they’ve used it wisely....


----------



## perplexed (24 Mar 2020)

Someone upthread (sorry, can't recall who) was asking about moving children between two households.

Michael Gove's response to this question:



View: https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1242358443702390789?s=20


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## PK99 (24 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> I see Sports Direct have refused to close, saying they are an 'essential shop' as they supply sports equipment for people to exercise.



Instructed by govt to close


----------



## Proto (24 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Hi Proto, I didn’t work on the gases plant, but in a small R&D team on-site working on food freezing with LN2. Never the twain met....


You probably got off lightly! 
Must have been handy having a pizza factory next door where you could test!


----------



## Levo-Lon (24 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> It's not the same for all though regarding financial help.Seems like the self employed are not getting anything at the moment.



No they're not, it should be addressed in the next few weeks.

As I understand it, its more to do with implementing rather than not wanting too


----------



## chriswoody (24 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Intrigued what the big supermarkets are going to do, are they going to barrier off the household, clothing, toy etc sections. Are Lidl and Aldi going to stop their centre aisle offers, seemingly not judging by the promo Aldi have just emailed listing their latest non essentials offers.



My wife went out yesterday to do a weeks shop at our local supermarket and I was intrigued to hear the measures they've taken. They are only allowing 100 folk in at a time, in order to strictly enforce the limit they've made 100 shopping trolleys available. There's a guy stood at the door and everyone going in has to have a trolley, no exceptions. Also no families, no couples, strictly one person, one trolley. Inside the shop at the checkouts, someone has marked out on the floor boxes two metres apart and that's were you have to stay until the box in front of you is free. It will be interesting to see how things in Britain go.

We've had quite strict measures here for a few weeks now and the Robert Koch Institute was hinting the curve might be starting to flatten out here in Germany, though they won't know for a few more days yet.


----------



## wafter (24 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The key aim is to stop households mixing with other households.
> 
> The measures against business were as you describe, but their main purpose was to persuade households to play the game without having to directly tell them to do so.


Indeed, and while needless social interaction is clearly an issue (judging by the many who seem so far to have flouted advice) and it's good that the government have apparently taken action against businesses who are obviously taking the p*ss, I wonder how many people will still be going to come into close contact with 5, 10, 20, 50+ people in their non-essential jobs today because they're concerned about their finances or that their boss will sack them / take punitive action if they resist being strong-armed into continuing to work.

I agree that more stringent measures were necessary but can't help but think the government has essentially given unscrupulous businesses a convenient get out of jail free card. Great that they've apparently pulled up Sports Direct, but what about all the others that are likely to continue behind closed doors?

As I type it's about rush-hour-ish and I can hear a (cetainly diminished, but) still fairly constant stream of vehicles passing on the A-road that runs past the house..

Of course I have the utmost respect for those genuinely essential frontline workers who have no choice but to continue working for the greater good, but can't help but feel that these contributions are undermined by the selfish actions of other businesses.

If nothing else this crisis has certainly served to illustrate where the real backbone of this country lies (nurses, doctors, carers, producers and suppliers of food and other essentials) despite the fact that most of these roles have been chronically under-valued (both politically and economically) for years..


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Presumably the epos systems can be fixed so non food lines don’t go through? It’s already limiting numbers of purchases.
> Aldi’s promo was presumably planned months if not longer ago



As it's stands they can sell sell non food as they are allowed to trade as they are a food shop. The sale of none food is still allowed. It's only the shops that that sell none food only that are closed. Supermarkets selling both is a just the same as a conner shop what sell's a bit of everything. The scale of none food in supermarkets that will the problem. Aldi and lidl the none food is a key part of the buesness model. So unit they are told can't see it being stopped. The other supermarkets non food is not a key driver for them so expect to see less as this situation continues. They are going heavy on "the feed the nation" PR drive so fully stocked up non food and empty food shelves won't look good,


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I've had my son for 2 weeks, it's a trip straight to his mum's house and back. If he stays here indefinitely he won't be able to see his mum


It's just been said on the news that children under 18 can see both parents if they are separated 👍


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I think a cross between public back lash and a "friendly" visit form LA officers and police. Will see a change in "heart" AKA some public duty corporate message.


I can see there being all sorts of consequences for them because of their appalling stance. 
The evans bit of the empire can stay open as it is a bike shop.
Might not be legally possible but if it were i'd be inclined to shut down evans as well as punishment. Other bike shops exist. And evans will only be in larger places where other alternatives are more likely available.


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Mar 2020)

chriswoody said:


> My wife went out yesterday to do a weeks shop at our local supermarket and I was intrigued to hear the measures they've taken. They are only allowing 100 folk in at a time, in order to strictly enforce the limit they've made 100 shopping trolleys available. There's a guy stood at the door and everyone going in has to have a trolley, no exceptions. Also no families, no couples, strictly one person, one trolley. Inside the shop at the checkouts, someone has marked out on the floor boxes two metres apart and that's were you have to stay until the box in front of you is free. It will be interesting to see how things in Britain go.
> 
> We've had quite strict measures here for a few weeks now and the Robert Koch Institute was hinting the curve might be starting to flatten out here in Germany, though they won't know for a few more days yet.


Sounds like a good idea.
Which chain?


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> I can see there being all sorts of consequences for them because of their appalling stance.
> The evans bit of the empire can stay open as it is a bike shop.
> Might not be legally possible but if it were i'd be inclined to shut down evans as well as punishment. Other bike shops exist. And evans will only be in larger places where other alternatives are more likely available.


That assumes that other bike shops do stay open, Sigma for example has closed (probably recognising that £200 jerseys and £5k bikes aren't essential right now )
https://www.sigmasports.com/coronavirus-update


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## Blue Hills (24 Mar 2020)

Sports direct has backed down.
Idiots.
Would have been better to have just complied.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

Well this is working out well. Been out early with the hound 1st stopped by a neighbour in her car. Jokingly "asking is this your one exercise of the day" As this went on she said "it's stupid" I try to explain why we have come to this but she was holding on to the "it's the governments fault for not funding the NHS". Partly maybe but no health service can ever deal with what's coming.
She then said I won't be staying in "more than one to skin a cat"
BTW she's a part time receptionist at a GP's. 

Next up was a group of 3 man 2 from a bin lorry and one in a lorry loaded up with hardcore. Trying to give one of them directions clearly not in family group all close up and just being normal about the whole thing. 

The traffic over all was just as normal seen at least 2 work mates in vans going way they do every morning and picking a mate up. 

Then the best one was a mother with 2 young kids. One of them said "why are we up so early" the mother in a voice like a fog horn. Said "because you wanted to go to the shop in your slippers" (they all had PJ's on too)

For me the hardest thing is trying to get the dog to understand we can't anymore say hello to every dog we see.


----------



## wafter (24 Mar 2020)

Here we go - Independent: "NHS worker issues plea to Boris Johnson as commuter train packed despite UK lockdown"

Sadiq Kahn's response to this apparently bolsters my point about the ambiguous message sent to businesses:



> Mr Khan told BBC Radio 4’s _Today _programme *non-essential workers who must still attend their workplace* should not use London’s public transport during rush hour.


Surely if you're classed as a non-essential worker you shouldn't be compelled to still attend your workplace..? IMO this leaves the door wide open for scumbag bosses to risk the health of their workers, families and wider society in the pursuit of profit and smacks of total double standards when compared to the heavy and pretty uncompromising restrictions placed on other activities.

Makes the latest restrictions look like little more than a PR exercise tbh.


----------



## chriswoody (24 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Sounds like a good idea.
> Which chain?



It's the Edeka chain of supermarkets. Very popular and widespread in this area of Germany.


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## Electric_Andy (24 Mar 2020)

[QUO


vickster said:


> It's just been said on the news that children under 18 can see both parents if they are separated 👍


thank you that's a weight off my mind


----------



## MontyVeda (24 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Intrigued what the big supermarkets are going to do, are they going to barrier off the household, clothing, toy etc sections. Are Lidl and Aldi going to stop their centre aisle offers, seemingly not judging by the promo Aldi have just emailed listing their latest non essentials offers.


it's physically not possible to barrier off any section in my Aldi... only 4 aisles. Plus the 'shopping for essentials' guideline is very vague... I don't think it means we can buy a couple of carrots but not a Twix.


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> [QUO
> 
> thank you that's a weight off my mind


It's mentioned here Coronavirus: What are the new restrictions and why are they needed? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52010555


----------



## PK99 (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Well this is working out well. Been out early with the hound 1st stopped by a neighbour in her car. Jokingly "asking is this your one exercise of the day" As this went on she said "it's stupid" I try to explain why we have come to this but she was holding on to the "it's the governments fault for not funding the NHS". Partly maybe but no health service can ever deal with what's coming.
> She then said I won't be staying in "more than one to skin a cat"
> *BTW she's a part time receptionist at a GP's. *



*Report her to the GP practice.

This is not the time to mess around and be precious and iffy about not shopping people doing dangerous things*


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> it's physically not possible to barrier off any section in my Aldi... only 4 aisles. Plus the 'shopping for essentials' guideline is very vague... I don't think it means we can buy a couple of carrots but not a Twix.


I'd interpret food and drink as essential even if it is a Twix. 
A socket set probably isn't essential at this time


----------



## Mike_P (24 Mar 2020)

The official guidance gives the following exceptions to the otherwise mandatory closure of retail premises

Supermarkets and other food shops, health shops, pharmacies including non-dispensing pharmacies, petrol stations, bicycle shops, home and hardware shops, laundrettes and dry cleaners, bicycle shops, garages, car rentals, pet shops, corner shops, newsagents, post offices, and banks.

Edit - just double checked it had pasted correctly and yes bicycle shops are listed twice


----------



## MontyVeda (24 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> I'd interpret food and drink as essential even if it is a Twix.
> A socket set probably isn't essential at this time


but if someone picks up a socket set along with their bread, Twix and loo roll... is it so essential that we refuse the sale of the socket set?

At the end of the day, it's essential that we get people through and out of the store as quickly as possible with minimum fuss. Removing our non-essential products from sale is futile.


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> but if someone picks up a socket set along with their bread, Twix and loo roll... is it so essential that we refuse the sale of the socket set?
> 
> At the end of the day, it's essential that we get people through and out of the store as quickly as possible with minimum fuss. Removing our non-essential products from sale is futile.


Put them in the warehouse?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Edit - just double checked it had pasted correctly and yes bicycle shops are listed twice



How many bike shops should be open?

N+1


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

@Brompton Bruce Last night on shift Mrs 73 had to visit A&E. To a possible Covid-19 case. So that's now one station kit that's down to 2 sets. No word on getting anymore. 
She tell's me if Covid-19 get's typed into System-one the whole screen show's a decision tree. She tried it last night and it's not working 
It's had an overnight update and it is now clearly flagging up any vulnerable patients that need to self isolate. So that's one thing at least. 

So one possible interaction down (that we know of) it's all getting that bit closer to home .


----------



## Yellow Fang (24 Mar 2020)

The guidance is still a bit confusing. I was wondering whether I was allowed to go to work or not. Thankfully, it looks like I can:

_Travelling to and from work, but only where this absolutely cannot be done from home._
The site in Reading I work at is easy enough to get to, but my other sites are Bristol, Plymouth and Cardiff. I don't have a car so I'd have to take the train. Not sure I'm 100% keen.

I am beginning to wish I'd done a bit more panic buying. Now the supermarkets will be packed.


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## nickyboy (24 Mar 2020)

I do wonder if the two speed epidemic we have in the UK will become more so. London is maybe 2 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK now

But looking at packed public transport going into London from commuterland must be a perfect vector for CV transmission

Here in semi rural Derbyshire there isn't much public transport anyway and the roads are incredibly quiet. Basically Glossop is following instruction and is locked down

So I wouldn't be surprised to see a real slowdown in the epidemic's progress in small towns. Contrast with what may happen in London commuterbelt


----------



## Mo1959 (24 Mar 2020)

I see the Scottish Prison Service is stopping all visits. I don't envy my old colleagues.


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## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Instructed by govt to close


How you doing today?


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Put them in the warehouse?


They don't operate on big in store warehouse most retail outlets are get the stock in and out. Holding loads of stock in the back has gone. 
Holding the stock in the distribution warehouse is possible that will have a knock effect. They can of course just trun round to the suppliers and say stuff you we don't want it. Then leave them hold the baby.


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I see the Scottish Prison Service is stopping all visits. I don't envy my old colleagues.



Hopefully they'll be sent some of these millions of test kits that was started to be ordered on saturday.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I see the Scottish Prison Service is stopping all visits. I don't envy my old colleagues.



That's a difficult one as you know for some that's the only thing stopping them doing anything silly


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Hopefully they'll be sent some of these millions of test kits that was started to be ordered on saturday.



England and wales are already testing the prison population. That never stopped now if they have enough kits well that's a different story.


----------



## Mike_P (24 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I do wonder if the two speed epidemic we have in the UK will become more so. London is maybe 2 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK now
> 
> But looking at packed public transport going into London from commuterland must be a perfect vector for CV transmission


TFL should be doing a lot more, marking 2m distances for a start because I bet a lot of those commuters would think half of that was adequate given the conditions they are use to and quite reducing the number of trains has plainly back fired. Elsewhere bus operators are taking matters more seriously, Transdev in E Lancs and N/W York's have provided their drivers with clearance from seated passengers


----------



## PK99 (24 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> How you doing today?



Strangley, today I am close to normal.

Maybe my routine meds of Hydroxcychloroquine and Azithromyin (see medical reports about these being tested in tandem and reducing length of infection) are helping.

I'm an anecdatpoint!


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I do wonder if the two speed epidemic we have in the UK will become more so. London is maybe 2 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK now
> 
> But looking at packed public transport going into London from commuterland must be a perfect vector for CV transmission
> 
> ...


Yes that's what i was thinking - that london might clear first. After many many dead sadly. Am in London.


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> England and wales are already testing the prison population. That never stopped now if they have enough kits well that's a different story.



I'm absolutely certain this has been going on in tiny numbers, but I'm not talking about the very sluggish and highly rationed PCR of which we're doing a mere 6000 tests in the entire country and even countries like Italy are having bad days and doing 17,000 a day for example over the weekend.

I'm talking about the new antibody test kit which Boris mentioned last night which was the most important thing I heard last night. Various sketchy reports that the UK government did a Spain and started ordering them on Saturday on the quiet (Spain started ordering them around last Monday-Tuesday and just distributed 640,000 with millions more on order). It might be the end of this week a few hundred thousand arrive in the government's hands.

The antibody test means that a prison could be given a few hundred and test an entire wing if that was justified in the case of an outbreak. Or staff could be tested every 3-4 days and so on. Or whatever is seen as the most efficient way of saving lives.


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> TFL should be doing a lot more, marking 2m distances for a start because I bet a lot of those commuters would think half of that was adequate given the conditions they are use to and quite reducing the number of trains has plainly back fired. Elsewhere bus operators are taking matters more seriously, Transdev in E Lancs and N/W York's have provided their drivers with clearance from seated passengers
> View attachment 510131


Good for transdev good outfit in my experience. Wouldn't want to be anywhere near a northern train at the moment.


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

wafter said:


> Here we go - Independent: "NHS worker issues plea to Boris Johnson as commuter train packed despite UK lockdown"
> 
> Sadiq Kahn's response to this apparently bolsters my point about the ambiguous message sent to businesses:
> 
> ...


The tube thing this morning has me thinking....
Firstly there is a marked reduction in trains thus concentrating passengers.
Secondly, for a major city start thinking of all the people that are required to keep it safe and ticking-over and you start to come-up with a surprisingly longer list than you might imagine outside of the ‘emergency workers’.

Train, tube, bus and delivery drivers, maintainance engineers for all the mechanical infrastructure, all the shop workers, posties, refuse drivers, bank workers teachers etc....then you start to figure that quite a few still need to travel....


----------



## kingrollo (24 Mar 2020)

Just had a text - presumably because I am on triotupuim (inhaler) - says I should stay at home - does that mean I can't go out for solo exercise ?


----------



## Adam4868 (24 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> The tube thing this morning has me thinking....
> Firstly there is a marked reduction in trains thus concentrating passengers.
> Secondly, for a major city start thinking of all the people that are required to keep it safe and ticking-over and you start to come-up with a surprisingly longer list than you might imagine outside of the ‘emergency workers’.
> 
> Train, tube, bus and delivery drivers, maintainance engineers for all the mechanical infrastructure, all the shop workers, posties, refuse drivers, bank workers teachers etc....then you start to figure that quite a few still need to travel....



Don't reduce the service...put more on ?


----------



## Rusty Nails (24 Mar 2020)

wafter said:


> Perhaps I'm just bitter because I don't like to have my movements curtailed or be made to feel guilty about / second guess my decisions to go out on the bike.. but does anyone else feel that the measures applied to private activites seem excessively draconian compared to the vague, subjective and lax advice for businesses?
> 
> While I'm all for many of the wider-reaching measures (public gatherings, closure of non-essential stuff, minimising trips out etc) It seems to me that the government is taking a hard line with indiviual activities while leaving the door wide open for some decidely non-essential businesses to carry on regardless at their own behest.
> 
> Rightly or wrongly I resent being made to feel like an irresponsible scumbag for daring to venture outside the house into the clean, open, sparsely-populated air more than once per day, while Sports direct can apparently force its workers to come into contact with many, many people daily while flogging them an essential pair of trackie bottoms


This sums up my concerns about my three rides a week. They help keep me fit and sane in my dotage, I only ride solo in non-busy areas, but still I worry about being seen as selfish.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm absolutely certain this has been going on in tiny numbers, but I'm not talking about the very sluggish and highly rationed PCR of which we're doing a mere 6000 tests in the entire country and even countries like Italy are having bad days and doing 17,000 a day for example over the weekend.
> 
> I'm talking about the new antibody test kit which Boris mentioned last night which was the most important thing I heard last night. Various sketchy reports that the UK government did a Spain and started ordering them on Saturday on the quiet (Spain started ordering them around last Monday-Tuesday and just distributed 640,000 with millions more on order). It might be the end of this week a few hundred thousand arrive in the government's hands.
> 
> The antibody test means that a prison could be given a few hundred and test an entire wing if that was justified in the case of an outbreak. Or staff could be tested every 3-4 days and so on. Or whatever is seen as the most efficient way of saving lives.



We can but hope the stuff is in pipeline. I'm still not sure anyone's in a hurry to push it though


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Strangley, today I am close to normal.
> 
> Maybe my routine meds of Hydroxcychloroquine and Azithromyin (see medical reports about these being tested in tandem and reducing length of infection) are helping.
> 
> I'm an anecdatpoint!


Do you have a constant unpleasant taste in your mouth? I can’t get rid of it! Also, food doesn’t taste right. Even toothpaste tastes weird!


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Don't reduce the service...put more on ?


Yes, but... they’re running out of drivers!!


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Just had a text - presumably because I am on triotupuim (inhaler) - says I should stay at home - does that mean I can't go out for solo exercise ?



Yes


----------



## Mo1959 (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Just had a text - presumably because I am on triotupuim (inhaler) - says I should stay at home - does that mean I can't go out for solo exercise ?


It's not one of the ones all mobile phone networks are supposed to be sending out today rather that from your health centre?


----------



## PK99 (24 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Do you have a constant unpleasant taste in your mouth? I can’t get rid of it! Also, food doesn’t taste right. Even toothpaste tastes weird!



No can't say I've noticed that.


----------



## MontyVeda (24 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Put them in the warehouse?


the warehouses in Aldi stores are small. Every morning there's a warehouse full of ambient stock and fresh produce, plus around 15-20 further pallets on the shop floor. We work our socks off for two hours every morning before the store opens get all this stuff off the pallets and onto the shelves. Putting all the 'specials' stuff in the warehouse simply won't work.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> This sums up my concerns about my three rides a week. They help keep me fit and sane in my dotage, I only ride solo in non-busy areas, but still I worry about being seen as selfish.



I've though that with food shopping I never got into the panic buy. I've just been getting what we need I have felt a bit selfish though walking into another shop with a 1/2 full bag. To get something else as the 1st shop was out of stock.


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

wafter said:


> Perhaps I'm just bitter because I don't like to have my movements curtailed or be made to feel guilty about / second guess my decisions to go out on the bike.. but does anyone else feel that the measures applied to private activites seem excessively draconian compared to the vague, subjective and lax advice for businesses?



Nope. Italy went through all this. The businesses and all that will get sorted out. Italy kept loads of stuff open till 2-3 days after the national lockdown and loads of construction and other random offices and stuff open until late last week . Unfortunately these businesses in Italy will have people on ventillators and family members dropping dead 2-3 weeks from now, just as happened in earlier lockdown areas. The UK needs to sort it quickly otherwise family members of construction and other random businesses will have family members dead in 3 week's time.

Let the businesses do whatever the hell they like. I've seen some on the Jeremy Vine show this morning and some aren't clear about advice or don't want to close. They won't be around in a few week's time and the government will do as Italy and close it down eventually.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Do you have a constant unpleasant taste in your mouth? I can’t get rid of it! Also, food doesn’t taste right. Even toothpaste tastes weird!



Loss of sense of smell is apparently a known symptom (has been suggested it's used to identify otherwise asymptomatic sufferers) so I guess that would also affect sense of taste?

https://www.entuk.org/sites/default/files/files/Loss of sense of smell as marker of COVID.pdf


----------



## Rocky (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Brompton Bruce Last night on shift Mrs 73 had to visit A&E. To a possible Covid-19 case. So that's now one station kit that's down to 2 sets. No word on getting anymore.
> She tell's me if Covid-19 get's typed into System-one the whole screen show's a decision tree. She tried it last night and it's not working
> It's had an overnight update and it is now clearly flagging up any vulnerable patients that need to self isolate. So that's one thing at least.
> 
> So one possible interaction down (that we know of) it's all getting that bit closer to home .


I’ve passed your post to the Prof. She’s gathering data on this.


----------



## Profpointy (24 Mar 2020)

Jody said:


> But I think they could play the need for somebody to be in work for the premise to be open, warehouse to operate. Yet the message is you shouldn't leave your house unless absolutely necessary. Gatherings aren't allowed unless for business. So your ok to mix with other people at work but should somehow stay away from everyone who isn't in your house. Cant have more than two people together but 3 or 4 people in an office is ok? I don't get it.



It's not hard to understand. If you reduce the number of people you interact with by 50% or 80% or whatever by only meeting people at work and the food shop, you are reducing the risk of catching or passing on the virus. This will reduce the rate of it spreading so hospitals will be better able to cope so "only" tens of thousands will die rather than hundreds of thousands


----------



## Profpointy (24 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> My main concern is the kitchen, we "5-6" staff are all working in a small area getting the food out.
> You can't do this without being inches away from each other.
> Just washing hands is Not enough.
> 
> It's a tricky situation , I'm happy to make sure our residents get fed and care, I'm also expecting to catch this virus over the next few weeks unless we can improve our working habit's... My wife is really unhappy about it. She has various health issues so I can't blame her for feeling insecure about this situation



Arguably your situation is best improved by everyone else trying not to spread it so you and your team are at less risk of being infected by others. You have to do what you need to do so can't avoid in work interaction


----------



## kingrollo (24 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> It's not one of the ones all mobile phone networks are supposed to be sending out today rather that from your health centre?


It's this ?


----------



## Mo1959 (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It's this ?
> View attachment 510145


Yes, all mobile providers are sending them out today. They should just reiterate what we have already been told last night.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It's this ?
> View attachment 510145



That’s the general alert sent by all networks on the government’s behalf.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52017451


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm absolutely certain this has been going on in tiny numbers, but I'm not talking about the very sluggish and highly rationed PCR of which we're doing a mere 6000 tests in the entire country and even countries like Italy are having bad days and doing 17,000 a day for example over the weekend.
> 
> I'm talking about the new antibody test kit which Boris mentioned last night which was the most important thing I heard last night. *Various sketchy reports that the UK government did a Spain and started ordering them on Saturday on the quiet *(Spain started ordering them around last Monday-Tuesday and just distributed 640,000 with millions more on order). It might be the end of this week a few hundred thousand arrive in the government's hands.
> 
> The antibody test means that a prison could be given a few hundred and test an entire wing if that was justified in the case of an outbreak. Or staff could be tested every 3-4 days and so on. Or whatever is seen as the most efficient way of saving lives.


I *think* that's what I was referring to upthread. A Scottish company got an order for 2.6m test kits last week but the order was from Public Health England, not the Scottish NHS. They were having problems with logistics, partly because the kits included swabs etc and had to be assembled rather than just sending out x number of swabs, x number of Part A, x numbers of Part B etc


----------



## kingrollo (24 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> That’s the general alert sent by all networks on the government’s behalf.
> 
> See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52017451



Thank you - I have looked at asthma UK and as a triotupuim user I would be classed as high risk - but no letter or text yet ....mind you my GP isn't the best so they've probably forgot me !!!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Thank you - I have looked at asthma UK and as a triotupuim user I would be classed as high risk - but no letter or text yet ....mind you my GP isn't the best so they've probably forgot me !!!



My wife hasn't had any news yet and we've seen deliveries being made to vulnerable users nearby so she phoned her GP. apparently they're contacting everyone alphabetically and she's a "W"


----------



## kingrollo (24 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> My wife hasn't had any news yet and we've seen deliveries being made to vulnerable users nearby so she phoned her GP. apparently they're contacting everyone alphabetically and she's a "W"


I'm R !!!

If you are in the high risk group - can you still go for a solo bike ride ?


----------



## Julia9054 (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Thank you - I have looked at asthma UK and as a triotupuim user I would be classed as high risk - but no letter or text yet ....mind you my GP isn't the best so they've probably forgot me !!!


Contacted my gp yesterday. My inhaler and dosage are on the list. Turns out in the small print that mine is half the strength of the one that would put me on the list. Feel a bit silly for panicking now!


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I'm R !!!
> 
> If you are in the high risk group - can you still go for a solo bike ride ?


We all thought you were a ‘W’.


----------



## Mike_P (24 Mar 2020)

A neighbour seems to have called out some drainage engineers for some reason, all walking roughly 2m apart but the two engineers arrived sat side by side in the same van


----------



## kingrollo (24 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> We all thought you were a ‘W’.


It's gone over my head mate ???


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It's gone over my head mate ???



I think he's a character from Monty Python's _The meaning of life_ who cannot pronounce Rs.


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I *think* that's what I was referring to upthread. A Scottish company got an order for 2.6m test kits last week but the order was from Public Health England, not the Scottish NHS. They were having problems with logistics, partly because the kits included swabs etc and had to be assembled rather than just sending out x number of swabs, x number of Part A, x numbers of Part B etc



I did see it . I'd also seen various pieces from multiple different companies around the UK some of which said they were in talks and others said nope, not heard anything from any UK lot. I do believe you, just not wanting to post much until more finalised.

There are massive issues with logistics. Even if happens as Spain where I understand what happened it they had to get 20,000 test kits here, 40,000 there and so on to make up 640,000. Even 10,000 test kits is transformational. On the ventillators or other equipment logistical issues around assembly and parts are having to be overcome.

When I mentioned logistics previously I also meant distributing them. I don't have a problem with Vo' type arrangements where the UK government clean sweeps an entire hospital staff say at once (and three to four days later) to work out who/what/where. As well as saving lives a proper study would show how it spreads within hospital staff. Longer term than a couple of weeks I worry about the UK government and various workers doing stupid things with tests. There has be a system for using them to basically ration and use effectively what's among one of the most precious things on earth right now.

For me one of the advantages of the various antibody and other quicker tests is in combination. Say you have a hospital worker where they are tested and it comes back ambiguous, target a PCR on them, isolate for 24 hours. It means in some cases people will be able to go back to work after 24 hours rather than a much longer amount of time.


----------



## Smokin Joe (24 Mar 2020)

Bike shops are on the list of businesses exempt from closure. Full list here-

https://assets.publishing.service.g.../230320_-_Revised_guidance_note_-_finalVF.pdf


----------



## Smudge (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I'm R !!!
> 
> If you are in the high risk group - can you still go for a solo bike ride ?



If you're in the high risk group, then you shouldn't be going out at all. Because you're likely to be hospitalised if you were to catch this virus.


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> We all thought you were a ‘W’.


A 'W' as in 'Wayne Kerr'! Joke no offence implied.


----------



## PK99 (24 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> If you're in the high risk group, then you shouldn't be going out at all. Because you're likely to be hospitalised if you were to catch this virus.



@kingrollo

*Advice for people at high risk*
If you're at high risk of getting seriously ill from coronavirus, there are extra things you should do to avoid catching it.

These include:


not leaving your home – you should not go out to do shopping, visit friends or family, or attend any gatherings
avoiding close contact with other people in your home as much as possible

*How do these measures differ from the social distancing guidance for vulnerable people issued?*
You are strongly advised to stay at home at all times and avoid any face-to-face contact for a period of at least 12 weeks from the day you receive your letter.

People who are not clinically extremely vulnerable who have contracted coronavirus (COVID-19) and recovered will be able to go about their normal business. If you are in this group we strongly advise that you should remain at home at all times.

*Symptoms*
The most common symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19) are recent onset of:


new continuous cough and/or
high temperature (above 37.8 °C)
*What is shielding?*
Shielding is a measure to protect extremely vulnerable people by minimising interaction between those who are extremely vulnerable and others. This means that those who are extremely vulnerable should not leave their homes, and within their homes should minimise all non-essential contact with other members of their household. This is to protect those who are at very high risk of severe illness from coronavirus (COVID-19) from coming into contact with the virus.

If you think you have a condition which makes you extremely vulnerable or have received a letter from NHS England you are strongly advised to shield yourself, to reduce the chance of getting coronavirus (COVID-19) and follow the face-to-face distancing measures below.

The measures are:


Strictly avoid contact with someone who is displaying symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19). These symptoms include high temperature and/or new and continuous cough.
Do not leave your house.
Do not attend any gatherings. This includes gatherings of friends and families in private spaces, for example, family homes, weddings and religious services.
Do not go out for shopping, leisure or travel and, when arranging food or medication deliveries, these should be left at the door to minimise contact.
Keep in touch using remote technology such as phone, internet, and social media.
Edit: source link - https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/advice-for-people-at-high-risk/


----------



## Rocky (24 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> A 'W' as in 'Wayne Kerr'! Joke no offence implied.


I hear he’s ranked highly in Wome......


----------



## PK99 (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I'm R !!!
> 
> If you are in the high risk group - can you still go for a solo bike ride ?



Simple answer NO!

Long answer see other post


----------



## Buck (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Thank you - I have looked at asthma UK and as a triotupuim user I would be classed as high risk - but no letter or text yet ....mind you my GP isn't the best so they've probably forgot me !!!



All high risk letters/text/emails are being sent by NHSE. Each GP practice is then working through its patient list to identify any vulnerable patients that the system algorithms have identified.


----------



## Buck (24 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> My wife hasn't had any news yet and we've seen deliveries being made to vulnerable users nearby so she phoned her GP. apparently they're contacting everyone alphabetically and she's a "W"



And the SMS systems are at capacity so everything is backed up. We use an "intelligent" SMS service linked to SystmOne and they have capacity for 2m messages per day and normally comfortably within. Currently they have 4m per day being sent so this is causing a delay/backlog.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> All high risk letters/text/emails are being sent by NHSE. Each GP practice is then working through its patient list to identify any vulnerable patients that the system algorithms have identified.


If my GP practice is involved - I doubt I will get a letter - they are taking 4 days to sign off prescription s (even inhalers!) Currently ! ....every cloud I suppose.


----------



## Dave Davenport (24 Mar 2020)

Well me and Mrs D are off for our first authorised (for now) daily bike ride, we'll be combining it with dropping off the medication I picked up for my mum, have told her to leave a window open and we'll lob it in whilst cycling past at high speed.


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If my GP practice is involved - I doubt I will get a letter - they are taking 4 days to sign off prescription s (even inhalers!) Currently ! ....every cloud I suppose.



That'll normal at some surgeries when it gets a bit busier. Don't worry too much, they'll catch up.


----------



## Mo1959 (24 Mar 2020)

514 more deaths in Spain 😢


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

It's dinnertime and most of the cars on my road that disappeared 4 hours ago haven't reappeared. They aren't key workers. This may take a few days to sort out.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (24 Mar 2020)

I've just downloaded https://covid.joinzoe.com/ - it's a sort of virus tracker, used to track where the virus is spreading, set up by Guy's and St Thomas' Biomedical Research Centre


----------



## wafter (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Nope. Italy went through all this. The businesses and all that will get sorted out. Italy kept loads of stuff open till 2-3 days after the national lockdown and loads of construction and other random offices and stuff open until late last week . Unfortunately these businesses in Italy will have people on ventillators and family members dropping dead 2-3 weeks from now, just as happened in earlier lockdown areas. The UK needs to sort it quickly otherwise family members of construction and other random businesses will have family members dead in 3 week's time.
> 
> Let the businesses do whatever the hell they like. I've seen some on the Jeremy Vine show this morning and some aren't clear about advice or don't want to close. They won't be around in a few week's time and the government will do as Italy and close it down eventually.


That's my point - I think we're arguing from the same side 

Italy were slow off the mark to curtail business activity and I suspect this was instrumental in spreading the virus. Equally our government seems to have let business off lightly relative to private activities.

The problem with "letting the businesses do whatever the hell they like" being the repercussions for their employees who are forced to work, their families and wider society as a whole.



Fab Foodie said:


> The tube thing this morning has me thinking....
> Firstly there is a marked reduction in trains thus concentrating passengers.
> Secondly, for a major city start thinking of all the people that are required to keep it safe and ticking-over and you start to come-up with a surprisingly longer list than you might imagine outside of the ‘emergency workers’.
> 
> Train, tube, bus and delivery drivers, maintainance engineers for all the mechanical infrastructure, all the shop workers, posties, refuse drivers, bank workers teachers etc....then you start to figure that quite a few still need to travel....


Indeed - hadn't considered it from that perspective either until I saw the news earler; but while I can understand the potential deterrant nature of shutting down transport I guess it has to be all or nothing and it now seems like madness to force those who do remain in need of transport into much closer proximity to one another.

I still question how many are still going to work at non-essential jobs too..




Rusty Nails said:


> This sums up my concerns about my three rides a week. They help keep me fit and sane in my dotage, I only ride solo in non-busy areas, but still I worry about being seen as selfish.


Indeed; although while easier said than done we should both go a bit easier on ourselves since on the grand scheme of things it's got to be an absolutely minimal concern compared to the selfish / stupid actions of others.

Personally while the weather's good I'm hoping for a reasonable walk or cycle on alternate days; as much as I'm an introvert internet slave staying inside the house literally 24/7 for three weeks would, without a doubt drive me absolutely insane..


----------



## fossyant (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's dinnertime and most of the cars on my road that disappeared 4 hours ago haven't reappeared. They aren't key workers. This may take a few days to sort out.



Most of ours are still here, although "Bob the Nob's" missus has gone out with a load of kids.


----------



## Johnno260 (24 Mar 2020)

With solo rides take it easy is the key it's not selfish just helps to keep fitness up and avoiding insanity.

I have been taking routes with more climbs, I keep it slow and steady.


----------



## Buck (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If my GP practice is involved - I doubt I will get a letter - they are taking 4 days to sign off prescription s (even inhalers!) Currently ! ....every cloud I suppose.



4 days! We work on 2 days. Slightly off topic but have you got your prescriptions set up to go electronically with a nominated Pharmacy?


----------



## MontyVeda (24 Mar 2020)

Profpointy said:


> Arguably your situation is best improved by everyone else trying not to spread it so you and your team are at less risk of being infected by others. You have to do what you need to do so can't avoid in work interaction


this is why I've been in semi isolation for over a week now... I don't want to transmit anything from work to my friends & family, and I owe it to my workmates to try not bring anything from friends & family to work, so apart from going to work as normal, I'm isolated from everyone else.


----------



## Glow worm (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's dinnertime and most of the cars on my road that disappeared 4 hours ago haven't reappeared. They aren't key workers. This may take a few days to sort out.



Disappearing cars- this thing may have a silver lining after all!

Seriously though it's the same here. Two elderly neighbours have been out for hours and also, the main road through the village is as busy as ever.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> 4 days! We work on 2 days. Slightly off topic but have you got your prescriptions set up to go electronically with a nominated Pharmacy?


They are usually 2 days - but it's been extended to 4 due to increased demand !!!!!!

We have an ordering direct number which I phone and the stuff gets delivered to boots - but GP has to sign it off


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/SueSuezep/status/1241833817058480128


----------



## stephec (24 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’ve passed your post to the Prof. She’s gathering data on this.


See you mention the Prof, and Gravel, are you RM in disguise?


----------



## Rocky (24 Mar 2020)

stephec said:


> See you mention the Prof, and Gravel, are you RM in disguise?




I’m reincarnated.....


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> They are usually 2 days - but it's been extended to 4 due to increased demand !!!!!!
> 
> We have an ordering direct number which I phone and the stuff gets delivered to boots - but GP has to sign it off



This is normal in surgeries during times of demand. It's normal at Christmas. It's normal at erm now that I mention it Easter is one of the worst times... Don't worry, they will catch up.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It's this ?
> View attachment 510145


Still waiting for mine


----------



## nickyboy (24 Mar 2020)

I'm usually reasonably across all the government requirements but one thing isn't clear to me

We are allowed to go out for one walk per day. We aren't allowed to make any unnecessary journeys. So does that mean that this daily walk (or run, or bike ride) has to start at your home? 

Not a problem for me and that was my plan anyway. The reason I ask is that I'm on a birdwatching forum and there is chat there about defining the birdwatching as their "daily walk" (doesn't seem unreasonable) but....they talk about driving to wherever to do this. 

I can see this being an issue where lots of town dwellers don't want to walk in the middle of a town, understandably, and drive to wherever for their daily walk. Unless the govt. make it very clear that the walk must be from home that is


----------



## Pale Rider (24 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> but have you got your prescriptions set up to go electronically with a nominated Pharmacy?



As you may recall, some effort was made by both parties to avoid my visiting the GP to arrange my next prescription.

That worked well enough, and my prescriptions have been being sent to the pharmacy for a while.

But I then toddled round there to collect it.

Perhaps I should inquire about delivery for the next one.

Mine need to be signed for, so there would still be some personal contact.

That could be minimised even further if the deliverer knocks on my door, leaves the prescription and paperwork on the doorstep, then withdraws by two metres.

I then collect the prescription, sign the paperwork, then leave it on the doorstep for the deliverer to collect it.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Contacted my gp yesterday. My inhaler and dosage are on the list. Turns out in the small print that mine is half the strength of the one that would put me on the list. Feel a bit silly for panicking now!



Don't be you won't be the only and many others will be panicking and they will won't have any conditions.


----------



## MontyVeda (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's dinnertime and most of the cars on my road that disappeared 4 hours ago haven't reappeared. They aren't key workers. This may take a few days to sort out.


The bloke in the flat above me works in a call centre for a mobile phone provider. I would have presumed that's not a 'key' role, but apparently it is. 

Up until last night, a friend who delivers building supplies was told he was a 'key' worker and had to go to work... he's extremely relieved that he's finally been told to stay home by his employer.

People who are told by their bosses to come in to work pretty much have to do so until told otherwise.

Sidiq Khan has expressed concerns regarding the amount of 'key' workers... maybe the definition is far too broad and needs strictly curtailing.


----------



## Buck (24 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> As you may recall, some effort was made by both parties to avoid my visiting the GP to arrange my next prescription.
> 
> That worked well enough, and my prescriptions have been being sent to the pharmacy for a while.
> 
> ...



Most do deliveries now (not sure in the current circumstances) Just avoid Pharmacy 2U. It's killing community pharmacies whilst portraying that is is endorsed by the NHS.


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm usually reasonably across all the government requirements but one thing isn't clear to me
> 
> We are allowed to go out for one walk per day. We aren't allowed to make any unnecessary journeys. So does that mean that this daily walk (or run, or bike ride) has to start at your home?
> 
> ...


I would assume so for the birders (at least for the next day or two before the rules are tightened further), as long as they are not going somewhere with hundreds of other birders or hanging around in a hide!

Even in a town given we are all meant to be inside most of the time, it should be possible to take a walk and keep 2m from other walkers by crossing the road etc - not everyone will be having their stroll or cycle or run at the same time. As someone said, if crowds congregate close to one another in parks, they will be closed soon enough.

It just seems to need a bit of common sense. If you'll come in contact with lots of others outside, don't do it!


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> Most do deliveries now (not sure in the current circumstances) Just avoid Pharmacy 2U. It's killing community pharmacies whilst portraying that is is endorsed by the NHS.



Deliveries are killing community pharmacy, not so much pharmacy2u (they are a terrible organisation, let's be clear about that).


----------



## Buck (24 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> The bloke in the flat above me works in a call centre for a mobile phone provider. I would have presumed that's not a 'key' role, but apparently it is.
> 
> Up until last night, a friend who delivers building supplies was told he was a 'key' worker and had to go to work... he's extremely relieved that he's finally been told to stay home by his employer.
> 
> ...




It seems a lot of companies are not using the key worker definition but saying that their teams can't work from home so should go in.

Mrs Buck works for the local council and her role cannot be done from home. She has had to go into work. Ludicrous!


----------



## Buck (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Deliveries are killing community pharmacy, not so much pharmacy2u (they are a terrible organisation, let's be clear about that).



A lot of community pharmacies are providing deliveries. It's the big boys i.e. Pharmacy 2U / Boots / Well etc. that take the profit from the dispensing fees but don't provide any of the community pharmacy services that are causing the harm especially now the pharmacies have had their contracts changed and reduced income but required to provide the same levels of service.


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> *The bloke in the flat above me works in a call centre for a mobile phone provider. I would have presumed that's not a 'key' role, but apparently it is.*
> 
> Up until last night, a friend who delivers building supplies was told he was a 'key' worker and had to go to work... he's extremely relieved that he's finally been told to stay home by his employer.
> 
> ...


Communications  I'd like my mobile phone (or indeed landline) to be sorted if I have an issue so I can keep in touch with pretty technophobe elderly parents

I would hope they are minimising the numbers to technical staff and a skeleton staff


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Perhaps I should inquire about delivery for the next one.



The system will come under enormous strain even with community groups or others such as the army delivering prescriptions.

Please, please do not, unless you feel the risks to yourself are astronomically high (that may be the case).

You can get someone else to pick up a controlled drug on your behalf showing ID. It's routine in pharmacy.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (24 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> The bloke in the flat above me works in a call centre for a mobile phone provider. I would have presumed that's not a 'key' role, but apparently it is.



Telecomms is an essential utility.


----------



## DCLane (24 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/SueSuezep/status/1241833817058480128




That's about a mile from me. Basically it's specific community that regularly comes into conflict with the police.

It also doesn't help that there's an intra-community drugs war going on following BBC's Hometown programme: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p07bn33z/hometown-a-killing

This was one dealer vs. another, the next two night's it's been setting cars alight. Nine were torched yesterday.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm usually reasonably across all the government requirements but one thing isn't clear to me
> 
> We are allowed to go out for one walk per day. We aren't allowed to make any unnecessary journeys. So does that mean that this daily walk (or run, or bike ride) has to start at your home?
> 
> ...



I can't see anything that covers this either. For the odd one who won't hardly see anyone then maybe it's within the spirit of the law

As you say If it got to the point of loads just walking in one place with no hope or will to keep to 2m and the police feel like moving them on then they will. 
New powers will make it even more clear to officers at the moment they can use what they have. They may have to careful even more soon or find they are held for 48 hours for testing and if PHE want it quarantined for up to 28 days.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> That's about a mile from me. Basically it's specific community that regularly comes into conflict with the police.
> 
> It also doesn't help that there's an intra-community drugs war going on following BBC's Hometown programme: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p07bn33z/hometown-a-killing
> 
> This was one dealer vs. another, the next two night's it's been setting cars alight. Nine were torched yesterday.



Yes very true know the issues all too well sadly


----------



## Pale Rider (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Deliveries are killing community pharmacy, not so much pharmacy2u (they are a terrible organisation, let's be clear about that).



Will do.

I've used the same privately owned pharmacy for years.

I suspect it may have changed hands a couple of times, but is still privately owned as far as I can tell.



marinyork said:


> The system will come under enormous strain even with community groups or others such as the army delivering prescriptions.
> 
> Please, please do not, unless you feel the risks to yourself are astronomically high (that may be the case).
> 
> You can get someone else to pick up a controlled drug on your behalf showing ID. It's routine in pharmacy.



Oh, might be better to go back to plan A and collect it.

The journey could fairly be described as necessary, it's very short, and I will combine it with the food shopping.

If I was the pharmacy I would be considering extra precautions, such as limiting numbers in the shop, or serving them at the door.

Last time I was in, half the floor area had been cordoned off from the public by moving a couple of the counters.


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I can't see anything that covers this either. For the odd one who won't hardly see anyone then maybe it's within the spirit of the law



I think further clarification will probably say leaving your village/town/area/city which I'd say is already implicit. So regrettably unless you live next to a bird spot or it's in your city then it's a no. 

This was a common one in Italy. Oh I'm just walking the dog on the beach and oh sorry officer I seem to have accidentally walked all the way to the next town. Wow yes I never spotted the road check over there, honest it wasn't why i went on the cycle track or beach. I accidentally walked and walked and called in to see my auntie or a friend and got lost of the time. Forget the 40,000 fines reported. This went on a lot and the authorities cottoned on to it.


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> Most do deliveries now (not sure in the current circumstances) Just avoid Pharmacy 2U. It's killing community pharmacies whilst portraying that is is endorsed by the NHS.



You are Boris Johnson AICMFP .


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Deliveries are killing community pharmacy, not so much pharmacy2u (they are a terrible organisation, let's be clear about that).



Slack service is not helping either a few my way are bad with even the basics of customer service. 
Only got to look at the plies of meds ready to collect that behind the counter. To see many can't cope with the capacity before all this started. 
If they have change of staying open they are going to need to up the capacity. How most can do it is the big question more robotic dispensing maybe ? 
Have to say the coop online pharmacy has been spot on.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think further clarification will probably say leaving your village/town/area/city which I'd say is already implicit. So regrettably unless you live next to a bird spot or it's in your city then it's a no.
> 
> This was a common one in Italy. Oh I'm just walking the dog on the beach and oh sorry officer I seem to have accidentally walked all the way to the next town. Wow yes I never spotted the road check over there, honest it wasn't why i went on the cycle track or beach. I accidentally walked and walked and called in to see my auntie or a friend and got lost of the time. Forget the 40,000 fines reported. This went on a lot and the authorities cottoned on to it.



I think that will be only option before everyone starts to fall in love with idea.


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

@nickyboy theyve just said in the Q&A on the news that there's no current restriction on driving to a sociallly distanced place of exercise


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Slack service is not helping either a few my way are bad with even the basics of customer service.
> Only got to look at the plies of meds ready to collect that behind the counter. To see many can't cope with the capacity before all this started.
> If they have change of staying open they are going to need to up the capacity. How most can do it is the big question more robotic dispensing maybe ?
> Have to say the coop online pharmacy has been spot on.



It's going to hell in a handcart and a separate thread from Coronavirus. A lot of the issues in pharmacy are intimately related to social care and other things going on elsewhere - it's just we don't talk about them.

You may not have to worry for much longer as I think many community pharmacies will go under. I expect staff to walk out or call in sick (or actually be sick on a grand scale) when precautions aren't taken, closure like conditions are induced as they have been in Italy and people think screw it, I'm not doing this for minimum wage with all this stress to die from coronavirus. It's right that hospitals, gps and care homes are prioritised ahead of pharmacies in terms of testing kits, but I would be very surprised if government didn't pretty much totally forget about community pharmacy.

You can free up capacity (enough to cope) in community pharmacy imho if you stop selling GSLs and have systems to streamline dispensing/bagging/giving out without the usual fun and games of distractions. A pandemic may allow this. A minority of the public with be very grumpy about this, everyone else will be fine. A lot of pharmacies in the big chains have very mismatched skill sets though and this is a big problem.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

After this morning I was wondering if the penny has dropped. 
Local tesco was busy they look to have been quick about it and the floor markings have been joined with delivery crates at the tills so you have no choice but keep your distance with staff. Spotted a few people in gloves and 2 with masks. 
One of them was at the till buying his cigs.  
A guy behind me who clearly had no idea what this distance idea is. Clearly thought as he waring gloves he'd be fine. 

Town was almost empty. Bank staff stood waiting outside only letting so many in people in the queuing all looked to be ok with the 2m rule. 
Did not fancy trying my luck and Morrison so went to M&S (boy our food bills are going up) Mostly empty got what I need stood behind the tape at the tills. Came home

PPE and mass use really is not a good idea. On the way home spotted one postman sat having a sandwich still wearing gloves. 
A delivery driver at the lights mask and gloves. Who once stopped removed his gloves to use his touch screen PDA.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (24 Mar 2020)

I am saddened to hear of the death of another health professional treating Covid19 patients. 

For anyone who still thinks it’s only a threat to older people and those with existing health problems this young Pakistani doctor was just 26 and fit. Dr Usama Riaz died after contracting the virus while screening patients at a border crossing.

Please follow the government’s instructions to stay home and save lives. Don’t go looking to interpret the restrictions in a way that lets you carry on with some favourite pastime or hobby in the midst of a global health crisis. Maybe you have found a loophole, so what? Don’t make excuses for needlessly spreading this virus. It’s a killer.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's going to hell in a handcart and a separate thread from Coronavirus. A lot of the issues in pharmacy are intimately related to social care and other things going on elsewhere - it's just we don't talk about them.
> 
> You may not have to worry for much longer as I think many community pharmacies will go under. I expect staff to walk out or call in sick (or actually be sick on a grand scale) when precautions aren't taken, closure like conditions are induced as they have been in Italy and people think screw it, I'm not doing this for minimum wage with all this stress to die from coronavirus. It's right that hospitals, gps and care homes are prioritised ahead of pharmacies in terms of testing kits, but I would be very surprised if government didn't pretty much totally forget about community pharmacy.
> 
> You can free up capacity (enough to cope) in community pharmacy imho if you stop selling GSLs and have systems to streamline dispensing/bagging/giving out without the usual fun and games of distractions. A pandemic may allow this. A minority of the public with be very grumpy about this, everyone else will be fine. A lot of pharmacies in the big chains have very mismatched skill sets though and this is a big problem.



As you say it's a separate thread on it's own. 
As with much of health and social care it's all got a bit miss jointed ending up with current miss-mash. 
I think many will go too a storm has been on the way for some time this may well be it. 
skills was one of big problems we had at coop, too many none pharmacy lines was another. Before they had to go to keep the bank afloat. 
Though the latter we'd really cut down over the last few years before they went.


----------



## Pale Rider (24 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> @nickyboy theyve just said in the Q&A on the news that there's no current restriction on driving to a sociallly distanced place of exercise



I doubt a bird watching site would qualify as a 'place of exercise'.

Isn't the whole idea of it to sit still?

Maybe the birdwatchers will tick the exercise box by taking a stroll around the lake, or by including their walk to the hide.

I wonder if this latest ruling means a car assisted solo bike ride is acceptable.

I'm tempted to say it does, but there's no doubt I could ride the bike from the house.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Mar 2020)

My cat Trubble is self-isolating by sleeping in a fruitbowl. Cassie isn't impressed as she can't cuddle up with him now.


----------



## fossyant (24 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm usually reasonably across all the government requirements but one thing isn't clear to me
> 
> We are allowed to go out for one walk per day. We aren't allowed to make any unnecessary journeys. So does that mean that this daily walk (or run, or bike ride) has to start at your home?
> 
> ...



I would say that's massively bending the rules. You can birdwatch from your garden !


----------



## AuroraSaab (24 Mar 2020)

Another story in the Mail today of a very fit and healthy 40 year old cyclist struck down - currently in hospital on oxygen. Hopefully it will start to sink in that this isn't just about the elderly or those already ill.


----------



## Glow worm (24 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Not a problem for me and that was my plan anyway. The reason I ask is that I'm on a birdwatching forum and there is chat there about defining the birdwatching as their "daily walk" (doesn't seem unreasonable) but....they talk about driving to wherever to do this.



Round about this time of year (3rd or 4th weekend in March) I normally cycle 10 miles to a nature reserve near Ely to see the first sand martins of spring. I was planning the same for the weekend but won't be making the trip now this year. I don't feel that is reasonable- there may be groups of people there, and a 20 mile round trip is stretching the 'daily exercise' thing maybe a bit too far!
Will have to make do with the first swallows from my kitchen window in a couple of weeks.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Mar 2020)

Words - I have none


View: https://twitter.com/YesMissMurphy/status/1242364536365211648


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I doubt a bird watching site would qualify as a 'place of exercise'.
> 
> Isn't the whole idea of it to sit still?
> 
> ...


I assume the birders park and then walk to the prime spot for watching


----------



## glasgowcyclist (24 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Words - I have none
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/YesMissMurphy/status/1242364536365211648




Oh, I’ve got a few but the forum swear filter would explode.


----------



## perplexed (24 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Words - I have none
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/YesMissMurphy/status/1242364536365211648




I have one or two, but let's go with utter fool for now.


----------



## Jody (24 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> @nickyboy theyve just said in the Q&A on the news that there's no current restriction on driving to a sociallly distanced place of exercise



w00t. Snowdonia here I come. Can't see anyone else having that idea


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

You'll have a long drive to find everything pretty much closed however 

https://www.snowdonia.gov.wales/authority/coronavirus

https://www.snowdonia.gov.wales/aut...nt-from-the-snowdonia-national-park-authority


----------



## Unkraut (24 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> You'll have a long drive to find everything pretty much closed however


Took a quick look at the links - pity *Tanysgrifiwch i'n cylchlythyr* got in the way, but the message was clear. 

The citizens of Munich have been driving out to the lakes to the south of the city, much to the consternation of the locals. I hope by midnight tonight this will have been prohibited. How can some people still not get it?


----------



## Levo-Lon (24 Mar 2020)

The closing down of garages is not everything. 
You can still use for mot and service and work can continue. 

Just certain parts are no go.
Unless management decided to shut down I guess.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Mar 2020)

Think people should go with the spirit of the rules - rather than looking for a way to justify going out.

I haven't had a letter yet - so in theory could and would love to go out on my bike - but I wont.

BTW - the letters should arrive 29/3


----------



## Smudge (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Think people should go with the spirit of the rules - rather than looking for a way to justify going out.
> 
> I haven't had a letter yet - so in theory could and would love to go out on my bike - but I wont.
> 
> BTW - the letters should arrive 29/3



I had the text yesterday, which was just after i got in from a bike ride. Then the letter this morning.


----------



## Duffy (24 Mar 2020)

With regards to day to day life and the current situation, is bird watching a ‘necessity’???

There are a lot of questions in here about people trying to justify doing what they want to do rather than what, arguably, they should be doing.

Open your front door and go for a walk, if you are driving somewhere, like those plonks at the parks last weekend, to go for a walk, then I’d suggest, you’ve gone too far



nickyboy said:


> I'm usually reasonably across all the government requirements but one thing isn't clear to me
> 
> We are allowed to go out for one walk per day. We aren't allowed to make any unnecessary journeys. So does that mean that this daily walk (or run, or bike ride) has to start at your home?
> 
> ...


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

"Two supermarket delivery vans were torched less than an hour after Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued his lockdown order".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-52019720


----------



## Smudge (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> "Two supermarket delivery vans were torched less than an hour after Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued his lockdown order".
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-52019720



FFS.... There truly are some scum in this country.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

Having a BBQ party .... Please for the love of god pack it in your going to kill people. it's not a game it stoped being one weeks ago. 

View: https://twitter.com/FoleshillWMP/status/1242460673914912770?s=20


Can we all be chipped and if GPS shows we've been playing games and we got ill and get to hospital. They can be quickly wheeled out the back door. Sadly we can't NHS staff are doing to pay a expensive price for stupidly. Behind every Doctor , Nurse, we have a family, Husband , wife , son, daughter , bother , sister , friend. We can do without this not knowing if they won't come home. They can't stay home and safe. we can but even that's asking too much. Well it's not really what's asking too much is for them to give a fig about you.


----------



## PK99 (24 Mar 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> Another story in the Mail today of a very fit and healthy 40 year old cyclist struck down - currently in hospital on oxygen. Hopefully it will start to sink in that this isn't just about the elderly or those already ill.










Pen Ponds cafe on Saturday...Words fail me

Edit: No they don't. this is an example of cyclists descending from the high moral ground into the gutter.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Mar 2020)

86 Deaths in UK today.


----------



## Unkraut (24 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Pen Ponds cafe on Saturday...Words fail me


The mentality of _some_ of the British. A colleague of mine whose daughter has been babysitting for someone who has had contact with someone who has had contact with a group who have tested positive wrote:

_I made the grave error of looking at some comments on the Daily Mail website a few weeks back. There are some commenters there who I would best describe as deranged. Nothing to do with politics, the phrasing and apparent mindset is shocking._

I've fired a salvo at the deranged (good word that) currently doing the conspiracy it's all hyped up deliberately spread by China or Putin's Russia etc etc on Hitchens' latest column under the comments. He's right to query the govt awarding itself extra powers with little democratic scrutiny, but wrong to make this an issue with the pandemic as the background.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Mar 2020)

"Death toll in UK rises by 87 to 422"

From Graun

Scheiss. Merde. 

As expected, but grim nonetheless.

Italy here we come.


----------



## Glow worm (24 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> With regards to day to day life and the current situation, is bird watching a ‘necessity’???
> 
> There are a lot of questions in here about people trying to justify doing what they want to do rather than what, arguably, they should be doing.
> 
> Open your front door and go for a walk, if you are driving somewhere, like those plonks at the parks last weekend, to go for a walk, then I’d suggest, you’ve gone too far



It saddens me how in normal times, birding is such an incredibly car dependent activity. Birders often spoil some of the more remote parts of the fen hereabouts, leaving large numbers of vehicles in dumb places- blocking farm gates etc and making narrow lanes a pain to cycle on. I've never driven anywhere to see birds and never will. If any good is to come out of this then maybe now some of them will find birding interest on their doorstep, perhaps as a part of a short daily walk. I've just taken a 15 minute stroll around the village and had a 10 species list by the end incl. Sprawk and mistle thrush - it can be done!


----------



## MontyVeda (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> ...
> A delivery driver at the lights mask and gloves. Who once stopped removed his gloves to use his touch screen PDA.


touch screens don't usually work with gloved hands. I discovered this at a self service till last week.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> With regards to day to day life and the current situation, is bird watching a ‘necessity’???



Interestingly, today I cycled past someone near the airport perimeter fence with what looked like a fancy directional microphone and audio recording set up, seemingly recording birdsong. Normally everything would be drowned out by constant jet engine noise there.

Obviously I didn't feel able to stop and chat, but "Birdsong Buffs" is one group who must be having a field day. Hmmm, note to self, did notice last year another spot on the fence where skylarks nest inside the perimeter. Might be quite stunning to listen to now.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> touch screens don't usually work with gloved hands. I discovered this at a self service till last week.


Yes I know point being it's why gloves are not a good idea at mass protection measure.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Interestingly, today I cycled past someone near the airport perimeter fence with what looked like a fancy directional microphone and audio recording set up, seemingly recording birdsong. Normally everything would be drowned out by constant jet engine noise there.
> 
> Obviously I didn't feel able to stop and chat, but "Birdsong Buffs" is one group who must be having a field day. Hmmm, note to self, did notice last year another spot on the fence where skylarks nest inside the perimeter. Might be quite stunning to listen to now.



Here you go just come up on my twitter feed. 


View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1242368369308860417


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Here you go just come up on my twitter feed.
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1242368369308860417




Lovely. I was listening to one myself only on Sunday.

Incidentally, the "Birdnet" app is great for identifying birdsong. Shazam for birds. Skylarks are fairly obvious, but I'm useless with many others.

Edit: tried it on your recording. Here you go:






Sometimes I love technology.


----------



## Smudge (24 Mar 2020)

Free Brompton hire for NHS staff apparently.....

https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/free-brompton-bike-hire-for-nhs-staff-at-brompton-bike-3427302


----------



## kingrollo (24 Mar 2020)

I think my head is going - I'm thinking spending £700 on a spin bike 
(Can't use turbos they set my back off - but wattbike at the gym is good)


----------



## AuroraSaab (24 Mar 2020)

Greater Manchester Police have 10% of their staff off ill or self-isolating, and this morning the Chief Constable " ....expressed despair that the force received 180 calls between 7am and 10am today to ask questions such as “‘Can I take my car for its MOT?” and “‘Can I pick my daughter up at Manchester airport?” ....


----------



## MontyVeda (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes I know point being it's why gloves are not a good idea at mass protection measure.


They're not a bad idea when it comes to PPE though.

I find it odd seeing shoppers wearing a mask but not gloves. How many people have pushed that trolley prior to them, or picked up and put down the stock on the shelves? Any one of them could have forgotten to cough into their elbow and used their hand as they've done their whole life. Hopefully none of them are carriers but one cannot be too careful.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Mar 2020)

FFS - an Avon book had just been pushed through the door !!!!!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> FFS - an Avon book had just been pushed through the door !!!!!


ooh have they got anything for dry, chapped hands from washing them every two minutes?


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

UK press conference today. Nurses and doctors to get access to test kits very soon.

Mass testing by the end of the epidemic for the population. All a bit vague but there. Probably vague as don't want to be criticised in giving any numbers, especially by health staff.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (24 Mar 2020)

Every time I see this guy I think rabbit.headlights@gov.uk


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

Italy figures are bad again. 743 deaths. Some regions not so bad news, other regions bad bad news.


----------



## Mo1959 (24 Mar 2020)

Anyone listening to the questions people are sending in to get answered on the BBC? Is there any common sense left out there!


----------



## Pale Rider (24 Mar 2020)

My chemist has taken extra precautions since I was last in a few days ago.

It's now knock and don't enter.

The assistant was wearing a face mask - the first one I've seen deployed around here.

Another first was the absence of traffic, today was definitely quieter than it was last week.

More wide open spaces at Morrisons.

My selected parked trolley had several used wipes and paper towels in it.

The trolley was parked next to a big bin, it was that close I hardly had to move my feet to put the stuff in it.

There's clearly nothing like a mass killing pandemic to provide a good littering opportunity.

Some gaps on the shelves inside, but there was plenty of stock, and I got all I wanted.

The near empty aisles made for a more agreeable shopping experience than is normally the case.

Not much evidence in the shop of social distancing, and on the way home I saw a pair of runners and three cyclists all behaving as they usually would.

Overall, nothing that will difficult to put up with for as long as it lasts.


----------



## marshmella (24 Mar 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> Greater Manchester Police have 10% of their staff off ill or self-isolating, and this morning the Chief Constable " ....expressed despair that the force received 180 calls between 7am and 10am today to ask questions such as “‘Can I take my car for its MOT?” and “‘Can I pick my daughter up at Manchester airport?” ....


It's probably been said many times already but the type of questions being asked are just plain daft.It appears common sense has deserted some elements of society. The police are going to have their work cut out as it is trying to enforce the new restrictions.


----------



## AuroraSaab (24 Mar 2020)

I can only hope that the calls were on the non emergency police line, not 999, though I doubt it. My friend's daughter has a part-time job in a butchers. They are very busy at the moment especially with bbq stuff. If the weather is nice, I'm guessing the regs are going to widely ignored at the weekend because, well, 'It's only family coming, isn't it?'. My kids haven't left the house since last Weds and last Friday.


----------



## ozboz (24 Mar 2020)

[QUOTE="Mo1959, post: 5925370, member: 23403"
Anyone listening to the questions people are sending in to get answered on the BBC? Is there any common sense left out there!
[/QUOTE]
They can’t be much worse than the ones asked on Sky News


----------



## ozboz (24 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Worsley? I used to to work for BOC (Morden and then Thame) back in the good old days (30 years ago)!


My Bro has been there 25 years now, I actually thought it was more Swinton than Worsley, but hey !!!!
He always been on the bottled side of things , I know he amassed a massive pension , they are well looked after


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> They're not a bad idea when it comes to PPE though.
> 
> I find it odd seeing shoppers wearing a mask but not gloves. How many people have pushed that trolley prior to them, or picked up and put down the stock on the shelves? Any one of them could have forgotten to cough into their elbow and used their hand as they've done their whole life. Hopefully none of them are carriers but one cannot be too careful.



Sadly they are Plenty of posts on here explaining why. 
If your not use to them as PPE for infection control they are more of a risk than a help. 
It's simple wash your hands every time you come home , need to go near your face , nose, eyes, blow your nose, prep and eat food, after the loo. 
In fact if in doubt wash them with good old soap and hot water min 20 secs and not forgetting backs of hands. 

Gloves are designed to be changed after every procedure. It's almost impossible to use them as everyday infection control PPE
when out and about. The simple thing to remember is if you wash your correctly and often you don't need to worry what's on your hand. 
Mask wearing on mass is not a great idea either. Again plenty on here as to why.


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m reincarnated.....


Yeah, but your still not the bloody Messiah, OK?


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> My Bro has been there 25 years now, I actually thought it was more Swinton than Worsley, but hey !!!!
> He always been on the bottled side of things , I know he amassed a massive pension , they are well looked after


Yeah....should have stayed....


----------



## ozboz (24 Mar 2020)

so what to do with all those cardboard loo roll middles !!


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> Round about this time of year (3rd or 4th weekend in March) I normally cycle 10 miles to a nature reserve near Ely to see the first sand martins of spring. I was planning the same for the weekend but won't be making the trip now this year. I don't feel that is reasonable- there may be groups of people there, and a 20 mile round trip is stretching the 'daily exercise' thing maybe a bit too far!
> Will have to make do with the first swallows from my kitchen window in a couple of weeks.


Waiting for the arrival of House Martins here....


----------



## mjr (24 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Boris has done a good job to, whether by luck or design, introduce a near full lock down gradually.


Is this sarcasm? He did nothing, then a week of polite requests, then shut pubs Sat pm, then full lockdown about 48h later! If that's gradual, I wonder what you'd consider steep!



> The measures against business were as you describe, but their main purpose was to persuade households to play the game without having to directly tell them to do so.


This vagueness means that those households are mixing as bosses cling to any reason to call workers into work where they feel they can keep an eye on them better. Isn't this part of Italy's problem?




> Ticking off those who misbehaved would have annoyed them - no one likes being told off - making them less likely to follow the latest advice.
> 
> It was a tactically smarter decision for Boris to swerve what's gone on up to now, and focus on what he wants to go on in the future.


Agreed on that. Just enforce it hard ASAP.


----------



## Adam4868 (24 Mar 2020)

Partner is working from home...two teenagers in the house and I've got a list of DIY and other jobs to do as long as my arm!
Good job we stocked up on alcohol...


----------



## Fab Foodie (24 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Anyone listening to the questions people are sending in to get answered on the BBC? Is there any common sense left out there!


Listening to the R5 phone-in last night was pretty depressing, however, LBC phone-ins are in another league altogether. It’s little wonder when you consider the state of the nation.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> FFS - an Avon book had just been pushed through the door !!!!!


Bring's a whole new meaning to ... ding dong Avon calling


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

Wren Kitchens that employ hundreds of workers refusing to close.
"its customers would otherwise be left without cooking facilities"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-engla...oronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story


----------



## nickyboy (24 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> FFS - an Avon book had just been pushed through the door !!!!!


Pretty smart thinking. All make up high street shops closed, Avon a trusted brand. 

Got a flyer from a fruit&veg guy who has a stall on the local market offering delivered boxes. Might give him a go, just to support the entrepreneurial spirit. Need folk like that


----------



## mjr (24 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> So I wouldn't be surprised to see a real slowdown in the epidemic's progress in small towns. Contrast with what may happen in London commuterbelt


Yes, then they'll transfer London cases to our hospitals, straining (at best) our healthcare worker friends and relatives, then London will have herd immunity, we won't, controls get eased, we catch it and are left being treated by an already-ravaged local hospital. This is an unfair situation and actions should be taken to head it off, but I don't know what.


----------



## MontyVeda (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sadly they are Plenty of posts on here explaining why.
> If your not use to them as PPE for infection control they are more of a risk than a help.
> ...
> *Gloves are designed to be changed after every procedure*. It's almost impossible to use them as everyday infection control PPE
> ...


that bit. put some on before you grab that trolley, take them off when you've finished shopping and before you get in the car.


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

A 4000 bed temporary hospital in London should hopefully help


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Italy figures are bad again. 743 deaths. Some regions not so bad news, other regions bad bad news.



Oh, that's grim. I was hoping they had turned a corner. 

Here's hoping we learn from them.


----------



## Rocky (24 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> Yeah, but your still not the bloody Messiah, OK?


No, I’m just a naughty boy.


----------



## Mike_P (24 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> so what to do with all those cardboard loo roll middles !!


Many use them as packaging but quite why anyone would buy them when theirs usually a supply on hand is beyond me.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (24 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> A 4000 bed temporary bed hospital in London should hopefully help


I thought a few days ago that the Excel centre was the obvious place to do it. I wonder where next


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Yes, then they'll transfer London cases to our hospitals, straining (at best) our healthcare worker friends and relatives, then London will have herd immunity, we won't, controls get eased, we catch it and are left being treated by an already-ravaged local hospital. This is an unfair situation and actions should be taken to head it off, but I don't know what.



If London gets rapidly to herd immunity, something like 100,000 corpses will be filling the temporary morgues in the capital. 

I'd take the your "unfair" end of that if I were you.


----------



## ozboz (24 Mar 2020)

I’ve just read Goves response to building workers, he is a prick that hasn’t done his homework , and never worked on site and unaware of site conditions , to get into to a site in London most travel in and out by tube, most temporary site offices , canteens, changing rooms and toilet facilities are recycled standard containers , not very big and usually not adequate to accommodate the number of operatives on site most of them now have finger print ID recognition to get in and out of site , vertical movement in very small lifts or cages, it is H&S req that all operatives take an induction prior to commencement of work , these are done on a daily bases, I have been in an induction with just two , but also upto forty depending on the size of the site ,
Dipstick is endangering the safety of thousands of Construction Workers
Get some credible advice Gove !


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Is this sarcasm? He did nothing, then a week of polite requests, then shut pubs Sat pm, then full lockdown about 48h later! If that's gradual, I wonder what you'd consider steep!


Pubs were told to close at end of Friday if I recall with a strong call to not head out for a last drink.

Full lockdown came after warnings and then some very bad publicity online directed at the stupid which I think will have exerted an awful lot of social pressure. which is more effective than any number of police - and we don't have a lot.

Severe warnings were given in advance of mother's day not to visit mum. Under pretty much any circumstances.

I don't know (poor reporting in the uk of italy) but i can't help but wonder how soon in the cycle effective family isolation was kept to in italy.

I consider it grimly lucky that mothers day fell when it did as it stressed how serious the situation is.

Seems to me this piece's headline isn't really backed up by the copy under it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ans-pms-handling-of-coronavirus-boris-johnson

And the mayor of bergamo's action makes no sense to me.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Severe warnings were given in advance of mother's day not to visit mum. Under pretty much any circumstances



Not so. Johnson was asked this question and declined to answer when the restrictions were brought in. Only later did the line harden. All of a piece with the overall ineptitude and confusion of communications.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> that bit. put some on before you grab that trolley, take them off when you've finished shopping and before you get in the car.


No it's lot more complex. At what point do you wash your hand before you glove up? Your cars not clinically clean before you use it so thats a problem. Any thing on the trolley get's on the gloves then on the shopping. Your car door handle is not clean your keys are not. So unless you, your shopping and every thing else you come into contact with go though an autoclave every time you wasting your time. Gloves are not magic fix. Really just wash your hands once you get home and for every thing else. If you do it right and when you need too what ever is on your hands is not a issue.


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Not so. Johnson was asked this question and declined to answer when the restrictions were brought in. Only later did the line harden. All of a piece with the overall ineptitude and confusion of communications.


I'd do a historic search on google news if i were you.


----------



## Johnno260 (24 Mar 2020)

marshmella said:


> It's probably been said many times already but the type of questions being asked are just plain daft.It appears common sense has deserted some elements of society. The police are going to have their work cut out as it is trying to enforce the new restrictions.



that’s the issue common sense isn’t very common anymore.
All these stupid calls should be traced and fined for a waste of police time.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

Just seen what plans the BBC have to keep us going during this. 
just when you thought it can't get any worse ......


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> I'd do a historic search on google news if i were you.



I'd follow my own advice if I were you. 

*Boris Johnson says he hopes to see his mum on Mother’s Day despite official advice saying over-70s should avoid social contact*

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.in...lf-isolate-tv-address-today-a9415496.html?amp


----------



## Mo1959 (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just seen what plans the BBC have to keep us going during this.
> just when you thought it can't get any worse ......


God.....it’s dire. Maybe cancelling the tv licence for the next 12 months would be more appreciated.


----------



## Rocky (24 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> God.....it’s dire. Maybe cancelling the tv licence for the next 12 months would be more appreciated.


It’s good for us opera lovers. The Met is streaming a different opera free every evening. It’s Wagner week this week!! It saves about £6 a night rental fee.


----------



## johnnyb47 (24 Mar 2020)

Big news broken out. 
Tonight i managed to find some bog rolls. It was getting a bit titchy as my supply of dock leaves where running seriously low in the back garden. I don't know whether i was suffering paranoia but I felt like i was being judged by every one in the shop for panic buying. (even though i bought one pack) 
Also today we've been all been put on a 3 1/5 week retention leave. 
Having nearly a month off with no one to talk to at home is something I'm not relishing. Plenty to do though in helping others so it shouldn't be that bad. 
Hopefully Boris will still allow cycling as our daily exercise in the coming weeks to keep the sanity levels in check. 
It feels tonight as a somewhat relief to finish work. At least now i feel im now in more control of who i can interact with as opposed to working. 
Ironically my last delivery intailed a delivery from Italy and the driver was Spanish. 
You couldn't of had a worse combination if you tried. 
I kept the driver well away from me and everyone else and he was very good and understandable about it all. It must be awful for truck drivers at the moment. There doing a sterling job and are being treated like potential disease carriers.


----------



## Johnno260 (24 Mar 2020)

Don’t really watch BBC much anymore, I’m glad I got Disney + cheap before this hit.


----------



## vickster (24 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just seen what plans the BBC have to keep us going during this.
> just when you thought it can't get any worse ......


I didn't think anyone on this forum has a TV


----------



## Mo1959 (24 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It’s good for us opera lovers. The Met is streaming a different opera free every evening. It’s Wagner week this week!! It saves about £6 a night rental fee.


Didn’t see that. I don’t mind a bit of opera, although nothing too heavy. It’s all the so called comedy and celeb stuff I can’t be bothered with.


----------



## Johnno260 (24 Mar 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> Hopefully Boris will still allow cycling as our daily exercise in the coming weeks to keep the sanity levels in check.



same even though I’m getting called selfish for doing it as if I hurt myself I’m a burden on taxed resources.

thing is I take extra precautions, my avg speed is way down, I’m looking for more climbs.

also for sanity’s sakes I need it.


----------



## Milzy (24 Mar 2020)

Quite a few in our local hospital all died. All over 60's. It's getting more busy daily. Slowly starting to hit these selfish head in the sand people who's number one concern is to receive 100% wages.


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'd follow my own advice if I were you.
> 
> *Boris Johnson says he hopes to see his mum on Mother’s Day despite official advice saying over-70s should avoid social contact*
> 
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-mum-coronavirus-mothers-day-self-isolate-tv-address-today-a9415496.html?amp


fair dos - a gaff from boris. rings a bell now.
advice put out days before was not to - was reported.
as you say was then hardened/clarified pre mothers day.


----------



## tom73 (24 Mar 2020)

Coop look to be going a good job 
We are implementing a number of social distancing measures in-store, including reducing the number of tills open, two-metre floor spacing guides, limiting the number of customers in-store and encouraging contactless payments. 

The spacings are though out the store , not just at till by the look of it 


View: https://twitter.com/alexberesfordTV/status/1242440646926966785?s=20


----------



## ozboz (24 Mar 2020)

Woo Hoo! 
Got a response !


----------



## Pat "5mph" (24 Mar 2020)

My colleague's nephew died, in London, earlier today.
He was 19, healthy, no underlying conditions.
He took not well, with Corona Virus symptoms, was told to stay at home for 7 days by NHS 111.
He got worse, his heart stopped, a friend did CPR, his heart started again.
When the ambulance came, he was put on a ventilator but one of his lungs collapsed. He died in the ambulance.
It was unclear if there was a nearby hospital with beds available.
Prior to feeling ill, he was traveling by tube to work, a two hour journey each way.
I wonder if his death will be reported tomorrow.
I think London is, like Milan was for Italy, the epicentre of corona virus for the UK.
Not all what's happening in the UK is reported, imo.


----------



## MarkF (24 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> A global recession will barely be noticed in most African countries or rural India.



No idea why you would think that. Virus + economy + Africa produces some alarming results. Like the virus, the economic impact will be felt everywhere.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-infects-africas-economy/a-52620528

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/as-...gile-economies-are-bracing-for-the-worst.html


----------



## mjr (24 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> You can get someone else to pick up a controlled drug on your behalf showing ID. It's routine in pharmacy.


Ours changed a few months ago to require a PIN code from the repeat request or receipt, not ID.


----------



## mjr (24 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> touch screens don't usually work with gloved hands. I discovered this at a self service till last week.


Some do, but a stylus is easier to keep apart while out and clean when home.


----------



## marinyork (24 Mar 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ronavirus-test-kits-are-on-the-way-to-the-nhs

3.5 million test kits. They won't say when they will arrive. I reckon that based on spain some may arrive end of the week.

I don't believe the guardian article is accurate, unless they have been doing antibody tests already, guess what the uk yesterday did 6000 tests. Again. Not 8000.

Norfolk and Suffolk do want to be behind London as their medics and patients will have a antibody test. And the ventillators being made.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> fair dos - a gaff from boris. rings a bell now.
> advice put out days before was not to - was reported.
> as you say was then hardened/clarified pre mothers day.



More than just a gaffe IMO.

Firstly, Johnson simply doesn't believe rules apply to him. He thinks he's entitled to behave however he wants.

Secondly, he operates on a Panglossian bombastic optimism as his raison d'être. Such rhetoric can fool a lot of people, but it can't outwit a virus. So he keeps on having to change as reality bites his ankles.


----------



## ozboz (24 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> My colleague's nephew died, in London, earlier today.
> He was 19, healthy, no underlying conditions.
> He took not well, with Corona Virus symptoms, was told to stay at home for 7 days by NHS 111.
> He got worse, his heart stopped, a friend did CPR, his heart started again.
> ...



this is terrible news @Pat "5mph",
I hope you are not correct about the reporting , but hey , would we be surprised , 
In a nutshell , No ,


----------



## ianrauk (24 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> My colleague's nephew died, in London, earlier today.
> He was 19, healthy, no underlying conditions.
> He took not well, with Corona Virus symptoms, was told to stay at home for 7 days by NHS 111.
> He got worse, his heart stopped, a friend did CPR, his heart started again.
> ...


----------



## mjr (24 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Pubs were told to close at end of Friday if I recall with a strong call to not head out for a last drink.


Told to, but not ordered until Saturday. And that was the only order before the full lockdown. Not gradual at all, that's the point, but Boris can do no wrong for some on here. His earlier of denial of lockdown effectiveness, his recent Sgt Wilson act and his Mother's Day blunder are mistakes which will have caused unnecessary deaths.


----------



## Johnno260 (24 Mar 2020)

Be interesting to see that graph plotted against one where more people ignored stay at home requests.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Mar 2020)

This won’t end well in the USA, if they didn’t already have enough challenges right now.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ammunition-soar-amid-coronavirus-panic-buying


----------



## ozboz (24 Mar 2020)

I’m getting wound up from the post @Pat "5mph" put on , without getting into all the politics of it all but when you think about it the TfL Union are not shy to stop commuters on a grand scale for their own stance on whatever , but thousands of people’s lives including TfL employees are in jeopardy here why can’t they the TfL Unions move on the Government or Khan to pull the plug on tube journeys , 
Bloody Disgrace !!


----------



## Johnno260 (24 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> This won’t end well in the USA, if they didn’t already have enough challenges right now.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ammunition-soar-amid-coronavirus-panic-buying



I work for a USA firm and a colleague there is pretty scared, there is a rush on guns and ammo and a lot of hate crime against Asians, he is Korean and has been subject to some verbal abuse. 

For all the issues in Europe, I much prefer being here then in the USA, even with our O2 cylinder stealing, Ambulance tyre slashing Muppets.


----------



## mjr (24 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> This won’t end well in the USA, if they didn’t already have enough challenges right now.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ammunition-soar-amid-coronavirus-panic-buying


And here's another challenge for the USA, Trump wants to unlock the lockdowns: https://www.thejournal.ie/us-coronavirus-donald-trump-lockdown-5055499-Mar2020/


----------



## Mr Celine (24 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> This won’t end well in the USA, if they didn’t already have enough challenges right now.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ammunition-soar-amid-coronavirus-panic-buying


They've only had 597 covid19 deaths so far this year. They've already had 8881 gun deaths. Maybe this is why Trump is more worried about the economy.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Mar 2020)

Just got an email saying a major company involved in house building having shut down today is re-opening all sites tomorrow after consultations with government.

Very strange and mixed messages being sent.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (24 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> marinyork said:
> 
> 
> > Italy figures are bad again. 743 deaths. Some regions not so bad news, other regions bad bad news.
> ...



Yes. Sadly, it is too late for the couple of thousands here who will be dead in a couple of weeks.

Looking at the trajectories in the chart below, it seems likely Spain is going to end up worse off than Italy - it doesn't look as if its curve is going to cross under the Italian one any time soon:






I think the structural issues in US will make the hit there no better, for longer, than in Europe. At-will employment is the most common form of employment agreement in US, it gives employees practically zero security. While some states/insurers have made tests free, there is no free universal healthcare, and even the majority who do have health insurance will be reluctant to go to hospital due to large excess (called deductibles, average is over $4000 per person) plus substantial copayment (most are 30% to 40%) on top, cap at usually another $4000 or so. With Trump worried that a lockdown would hurt the economy (as if millions dying wouldn't), he is already talking about getting people back to work, all the while total fatality is doubling every 3 days!


----------



## Unkraut (25 Mar 2020)

Does anybody think there is any credibility at all in the notion that the cure is worse than the disease, the argument that crashing the economy in the longer term - reduced prosperity - will do more damage to health than much more limited measures to keep the spread down rather than lockdowns? The idea that a massively contracted British economy for the next 5 years or so will mean less money for the NHS with the obvious knock-on effect.

I'm not convinced myself, but it's not an argument without some merit.


----------



## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

Spain may end up worse than Italy becauase it did very little testing and a cluster is in a gigantic population centre which ran out of control. It also depends how those italian regions in the south go. The last day or so maybe just caught it in time.

Despite the massive feck up in construction workers going to work, aside from London and Wales the UK still has some days ahead on Italy to rectify things. Not much time but some.

The UK and Spain also have some chance to save a small % of lives with their new testing regimes. The UK and Spain may also be able to spare the worst ravages to more rural areas with the testing coming on stream, if the spread can be slowed.


----------



## Soltydog (25 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Coop look to be going a good job


IMO the Coop have done a better job at handling this than many of the 'Big' players, restricting sales earlier & on my last visit all customers seemed to be being asked if they required loo roll & paracetamol, they had stock in the back, but were not putting it on shelves to stop panic buying  But all supermarket staff seemed to be coping with the unprecedented demand very well & many & still doing there job as well as they can & smiling, thank you all x


Pat "5mph" said:


> My colleague's nephew died, in London, earlier today.
> He was 19, healthy, no underlying conditions.
> 
> Prior to feeling ill, he was traveling by tube to work, a two hour journey each way.
> I wonder if his death will be reported tomorrow.


So sorry to hear that  I hope it does get reported, as the media tends to keep 'reporting' that the young are unaffected by the virus  
Working on public transport myself I was initially worried that I was at high risk of catching this virus, but our passenger numbers have dropped dramatically & now trains are running round pretty empty most of the time, so hopefully my chances of catching CV have been reduced significantly, although today I was on standby for 8 hours, sat in the messroom whilst everyone came & went  Around 6:30 this evening it got a little too crowded so I left & sat on a platform bench for an hour to minimise risk. Hope it's worked & we all make it out the other side


roubaixtuesday said:


> Firstly, Johnson simply doesn't believe rules apply to him. He thinks he's entitled to behave however he wants.


Like many of the 'Elite' & not just regarding CV


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (25 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Does anybody think there is any credibility at all in the notion that the cure is worse than the disease, the argument that crashing the economy in the longer term - reduced prosperity - will do more damage to health than much more limited measures to keep the spread down rather than lockdowns? The idea that a massively contracted British economy for the next 5 years or so will mean less money for the NHS with the obvious knock-on effect.
> 
> I'm not convinced myself, but it's not an argument without some merit.


"Limited measures" will not keep the spread down sufficiently for UK. Else we wouldn't have implemented lockdown.

I think the smart money currently, is that 1) lockdown, 2) contact tracing, and 3) border control are all needed to control the virus spreading in the population (keeping R0 under 1, technically speaking).

I think the answer to your question, which is a perfectly valid one, is well argued here.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (25 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> *Spain may end up worse than Italy becauase it did very little testing and a cluster is in a gigantic population centre which ran out of control*. It also depends how those italian regions in the south go. The last day or so maybe just caught it in time.
> 
> Despite the massive feck up in construction workers going to work, aside from London and Wales the UK still has some days ahead on Italy to rectify things. Not much time but some.
> 
> The UK and Spain also have some chance to save a small % of lives with their new testing regimes. The UK and Spain may also be able to spare the worst ravages to more rural areas with the testing coming on stream, if the spread can be slowed.



Do you think London might end up worse than Madrid?


----------



## ozboz (25 Mar 2020)

I’m


Unkraut said:


> Does anybody think there is any credibility at all in the notion that the cure is worse than the disease, the argument that crashing the economy in the longer term - reduced prosperity - will do more damage to health than much more limited measures to keep the spread down rather than lockdowns? The idea that a massively contracted British economy for the next 5 years or so will mean less money for the NHS with the obvious knock-on effect.
> 
> I'm not convinced myself, but it's not an argument without some merit.



Debatable either way, I just hope the bean counters do not win the argument,


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (25 Mar 2020)

*Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population, experts believe*

I must say I used to have a lot of respect for British academics in general, but what I see these days really are changing my mind.

The above suggestion is patently nonsense.

IF half the population is infected, how come only c22% of those tested yesterday (it was 1427 out of c6500) were tested positive?

In earlier days, the % positive were even smaller.

Since it goes without saying those who ended up in hospitals/clinics and managed to get tested are far more likely to have been infected than the general population, 22% must be the ceiling of % infected, meaning the actual % of population infected must be much lower. 

If 50% i.e. 33 millions are infected today, assuming doubling every 3 days, 1 million had to have caught it already 13 days ago - how come all the ICUs weren't overflowing for the past week(s)?

This note describes, and provides cogent rationale for, a couple of different methods for estimating the number infected. The simpler one, which makes sense at the beginning of an epidemic, is 800 x #dead. For UK, that would be 800 x 422, or c338,000, or 0.5% of the population.

Imho it is shameful for Prof Gupta to venture such rubbish, without proper justification, on such a subject, at a time like this.


----------



## Pale Rider (25 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> That's madness. Our site in N. Wales is quiet and we're down to close the van, having only opened it last week. There is stuff you need to do, like remove anything from the fridge freezer, shut off gas/water etc. Very quiet on the roads, very few folk out of their vans.



My static's site in North Yorkshire was staying open, although not to tourers.

Email earlier today says they are closing to everyone on government advice, but hope to get permission to reopen later in the summer.

As a business, they are in a strange position.

Having taken all the owners' rent before the start of the season, it doesn't really bother them whether the owner uses the caravan or not.

If anything, an owner who doesn't go down much is better for the site's owners because it's less wear and tear on the site, which means their maintenance bill is less.

I expect one of the reasons they want to reopen sharpish is to avoid the ugly spectre for them of breach of contract.

Owners such as me might seek compensation because we feel they have not provided all of what we paid for - a patch of land on which to site the caravan, unencumbered access to it, and site facilities.

I've not yet decided what I think.

They will not willingly pay compensation, that's for sure, but I will be miffed if we reach September/October and I've had no opportunity to use the caravan having paid a fair bit of wonga to do so.

I think @fossyant made a voluntary departure - I have not opened mine this season for the same reason.

I'm interested to hear if Fossy's site has said anything about enforced closure.


----------



## Levo-Lon (25 Mar 2020)

Our employer has issued all essential staff with a letter for whoever needs proof if we're asked while going to work ect.

We're now trying to keep residents in their apartments "we can't enforce this" and as of yet we can't stop them going out to see family..nightmare as some just don't understand this and I'm talking about the families
We are trying to stop this but it's a bit like telling a fooking idiot he ,she doesn't need 20,000 toilet rolls. Really annoying and puts us all in a situation we could do without.

As for staff the social distancing is pointless as far as I'm concerned,we can do it for most of the job but not all.
We don't seem to be geared up for this anymore than we were a few weeks ago.

We're delivering dinners to apartments, no masks, and there won't be hand washing after delivering each meal.
We don't have this yet "but we don't know for sure" so again we're just playing at this.

Ahh well do what you can I guess and I shall carry on with my regiem.
Personally as I had a very close near death experience in 2003 with ulcerative colitis I've been very much switched on to food poisoning and bugs, I've not had sick days from vomiting and tend to only get the odd cold.

Since working in care I'm amazed at how many are constantly off sick..but when I watch their working hygiene it doesn't suprise me.
Wiping eyes ect..fingers in mouth..ffs  just a matter of when and not if.


Take care people


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## fossyant (25 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> My static's site in North Yorkshire was staying open, although not to tourers.
> 
> Email earlier today says they are closing to everyone on government advice, but hope to get permission to reopen later in the summer.
> 
> ...



We left on Sunday, my site closed on Tuesday. I do doubt the owner will give us a discount next year as he's got wages covered by the Govt. We shall be miffed if he doesnt. Not sure what happens to those folk that live on our site from March to January (Jan and Feb are usually spent in Spain by those). Plus its highly likely he will have less owners next year. They only have a handful of rental vans and tourer spots.


----------



## G3CWI (25 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Imho it is shameful for Prof Gupta to venture such rubbish, without proper justification, on such a subject, at a time like this.


This may come as a shock to you but newspapers are not always reliable sources of information.


----------



## alicat (25 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Does anybody think there is any credibility at all in the notion that the cure is worse than the disease, the argument that crashing the economy in the longer term - reduced prosperity - will do more damage to health than much more limited measures to keep the spread down rather than lockdowns? The idea that a massively contracted British economy for the next 5 years or so will mean less money for the NHS with the obvious knock-on effect.
> 
> I'm not convinced myself, but it's not an argument without some merit.



That's the route the Government was going down. The fact that it changed tack shows that it feared the outcome was heading to an apocalyse. Old people dying abandoned in care homes because there was no one to care for them etc.


----------



## Blue Hills (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Told to, but not ordered until Saturday. And that was the only order before the full lockdown. Not gradual at all, that's the point, but Boris can do no wrong for some on here. His earlier of denial of lockdown effectiveness, his recent Sgt Wilson act and his Mother's Day blunder are mistakes which will have caused unnecessary deaths.


####Told to, but not ordered until Saturday
Sorry, this is dinner party hair-splitting/determination to win a point.
And in any case what was the government/any government supposed to do?
Go on live telly, tell pubs to close NOW THIS INSTANT, despatch our paramilitary police to stand outside pubs, oops, we don't have such such a thing?
Can you imagine what the effect of such an action would be in so so many ways?
And the effects on future containment?
Surely i don't have to list them?
++++but Boris can do no wrong for some on here
Trust that isn't aimed at me. The charge would make anyone who knows me, or has indeed read much i have posted, cough and splutter in a way which would set virus alarms awailing.
Have no idea what the seargant wilson thing is about.


----------



## Blue Hills (25 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I work for a USA firm and a colleague there is pretty scared, there is a rush on guns and ammo and a lot of hate crime against Asians, he is Korean and has been subject to some verbal abuse.
> 
> For all the issues in Europe, I much prefer being here then in the USA, even with our O2 cylinder stealing, Ambulance tyre slashing Muppets.


Ditto.


----------



## Levo-Lon (25 Mar 2020)

alicat said:


> That's the route the Government was going down. The fact that it changed tack shows that it feared the outcome was heading to an apocalyse. Old people dying abandoned in care homes because there was no one to care for them etc.



Quite and yes we will recover .

Main difference is we're not at war and destroying all our buildings and infrastructure. 

Things will be different for a few yrs for sure but we will all past this in time for the next whatever is coming.

On a major plus the air we breathe is decidedly cleaner


----------



## Blue Hills (25 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Be interesting to see that graph plotted against one where more people ignored stay at home requests.


I have the feeling that italy might not come out of such a searchlight as well as some folks might imagine.
Stay safe folks everywhere.


----------



## Mike_P (25 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Good for transdev good outfit in my experience. Wouldn't want to be anywhere near a northern train at the moment.


Northern proved yesterday they have not got a clue by tweeting a moving gif of a packed train telling people to give seats to those who need them, while Transdev came up with these


----------



## Blue Hills (25 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> More than just a gaffe IMO.
> 
> Firstly, Johnson simply doesn't believe rules apply to him. He thinks he's entitled to behave however he wants.
> 
> Secondly, he operates on a Panglossian bombastic optimism as his raison d'être. Such rhetoric can fool a lot of people, but it can't outwit a virus. So he keeps on having to change as reality bites his ankles.


Have never been a fan (mega understatement) but feel that your two sentences before the last refer to the past. Last sentence sounds like good management guided by experts to me.
Trump is the example, spectacularly, of ignorant stupendous psychotic lack of growth.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (25 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Have never been a fan (mega understatement) but feel that your two sentences before the last refer to the past. Last sentence sounds like good management guided by experts to me.
> Trump is the example, spectacularly, of ignorant stupendous psychotic lack of growth.



We can agree to differ I hope. I do support the current government position, and I hope they can become much more consistent and clear in how they communicate it.


----------



## Skibird (25 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Every time I see this guy I think rabbit.headlights@gov.uk
> View attachment 510206


 My thought is that he always looks as if he waiting to "be found out"


----------



## 8mph (25 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Does anybody think there is any credibility at all in the notion that the cure is worse than the disease, the argument that crashing the economy in the longer term - reduced prosperity - will do more damage to health than much more limited measures to keep the spread down rather than lockdowns? The idea that a massively contracted British economy for the next 5 years or so will mean less money for the NHS with the obvious knock-on effect.
> 
> I'm not convinced myself, but it's not an argument without some merit.


My crystal ball tells me lockdown won't go on for months.
https://news.yahoo.com/why-nobel-la...kSybd55KhuxrqZSc72Mz5iwZnmEG9QB5ngXi_Vg-OLoMs


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (25 Mar 2020)

Just spoken to a receptionist at a construction company who was almost in tears at being forced to come in for work. This is disgraceful. A lot of confusion has been generated by having multiple "governments" inside the UK giving different and contradictory instructions.


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## Cuchilo (25 Mar 2020)

Its a bit of a moral decision for me . I'm self employed and in construction . I have three jobs that i have worked on for the last two months and i am now ready to fit . Once fitted i get paid , until fitted i am skint as there has been no new deposits for the next batch of work .
Conversations with my customers this morning have been very real . They dont want to place orders as they are waiting to see what the fall out from this is . We have discussed if i should fit the work or not . Everyone including my self has agreed we should wait .
I have work i can do in my workshop so i dont need to be going out . It's not a good decision financially for me but i feel its the right decision to make with what we are all facing right now .


----------



## Johnno260 (25 Mar 2020)

Bad news, my wife’s grandma has fallen and broken a hip, it’s bad and will require surgery, she has cold symptoms.
This is why I get paranoid about my kids being kids running jumping falling.


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## 8mph (25 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> I have the feeling that italy might not come out of such a searchlight as well as some folks might imagine.
> Stay safe folks everywhere.


I think one of the reasons Italy has fared so badly could be due to their strong anti-vaxxer movement, higher incidents of common flu and secondary pneumonia taking up resources.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Just spoken to a receptionist at a construction company who was almost in tears at being forced to come in for work. This is disgraceful. A lot of confusion has been generated by having multiple "governments" inside the UK giving different and contradictory instructions.


Well, we can all contract diseases; they're now subcontracting diseases outside Scotland.

At least the contruction workers 100 yards away haven't turned up today. They were still around yesterday. Primary school next door deserted and I haven't heard a single car horn in the street (it's one of those streets with parking on both sides of the road, effectively turning it into a single track road with passing places).


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## StuAff (25 Mar 2020)

With regard to the Levitt & Gupta predictions- unfortunately, the main thing we know about Covid-19 is that we don't know much about it. Various governments (and populations) are trying various strategies for dealing with it. Which work, and which don't work, remains largely to be discovered. Japan and South Korea seem to be doing OK so far, but we're nowhere near the end of this. I'm pretty sure that Johnson and crew are getting it wrong though…


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## roubaixtuesday (25 Mar 2020)

8mph said:


> I think one of the reasons Italy has fared so badly could be due to their strong anti-vaxxer movement, higher incidents of common flu and secondary pneumonia taking up resources.



Lots of people seem to think that there is something unique about Italy which has made it worse there.

There almost certainly isn't; the pandemic has progressed at the same rate everywhere, give or take, unless stringent social distancing, and/or test and trace measures are put in place.

Noting how long it took even the most stringent measures to impact the death rate (China), it seems near certain we will approach the same situation there is now in Spain, Italy and France.

As posted upthread by @RecordAceFromNew


----------



## Tenkaykev (25 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Speaking of Nobel laureates making sketchy predictions, any update on my nomination, @Tenkaykev?



I offer my sincere apologies. May I explain my original post?

I've not been on social media ( apart from this forum) for several years. I also don't listen to news on a regular basis and what news I do follow tends to be Science /technology /sport related. 

When I saw your post regarding herd immunity I wasn't aware of the context in which it was posted, and took it to refer to the general established model of herd immunity.
My sincere apologies once again for misunderstanding your post and for any offence caused.


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## 8mph (25 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Speaking of Nobel laureates making sketchy predictions, any update on my nomination, @Tenkaykev?


By the end of February, he predicted


> that the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China would end up around 80,000, with about 3,250 deaths.
> This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate: As of March 16, China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths


I think he might just know a thing or two.


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## Joey Shabadoo (25 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Lots of people seem to think that there is something unique about Italy which has made it worse there.
> 
> There almost certainly isn't; the pandemic has progressed at the same rate everywhere, give or take, unless stringent social distancing, and/or test and trace measures are put in place.
> 
> ...


Isn't that graph hugely distorting? The gap between 10-20 deaths is the same as between 5-10,000


----------



## 8mph (25 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Lots of people seem to think that there is something unique about Italy which has made it worse there.
> 
> There almost certainly isn't; the pandemic has progressed at the same rate everywhere, give or take, unless stringent social distancing, and/or test and trace measures are put in place.
> 
> ...


I agree, the outcome depends mostly on how early preventative measures are taken but for a country with a comparatively good health care system the death rates have been shocking.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (25 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Isn't that graph hugely distorting? The gap between 10-20 deaths is the same as between 5-10,000



It's a logarithmic scale. That's a standard way of plotting data to test if it follows an exponential curve. If it's a straight line on a logarithmic scale then it's following an exponential rise.

On a logarithmic scale, every doubling (10-20 and 5,000-10,000 for example) has the same gap.

For an epidemic, you expect it to be exponential until either a significant proportion of the population has been infected - "herd immunity" or control measures kick in.

You can see how the curves for each country start as straight lines, then curve over to the right. At that point, the exponential rise has been broken (or perhaps they've stopped testing and are burying in mass graves - see Iran)

In the old days, you could buy logarithmic graph paper for manually plotting such figures.


----------



## Mugshot (25 Mar 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> Its a bit of a moral decision for me . I'm self employed and in construction . I have three jobs that i have worked on for the last two months and i am now ready to fit . Once fitted i get paid , until fitted i am skint as there has been no new deposits for the next batch of work .
> Conversations with my customers this morning have been very real . They dont want to place orders as they are waiting to see what the fall out from this is . We have discussed if i should fit the work or not . Everyone including my self has agreed we should wait .
> I have work i can do in my workshop so i dont need to be going out . It's not a good decision financially for me but i feel its the right decision to make with what we are all facing right now .


I shut my shop yesterday, I could possibly have argued that I could stay open as one of the home/hardware shops but I don't want to and also it's extraordinarily unlikely I'll see anyone to actually make it worthwhile if I did stay open, Wren seemed to be working to a differet model yesterday but appear to have relented today.
One of my semi-regulars called in while I was there, he had been hoping to do some outside work but Jewsons was closed so he couldn't get his bits, so he called in mine to get some stuff for an inside tiling job he was going to do and said that although he'd rather be working outside he'd do inside stuff if the customer had the bits. During our chat he also mentioned what a great time he had on Friday night,

"£1 a pint!" He said, "I must have gone round every pub in town!"

The sooner they get the detail out for the self-employed the better.


----------



## PK99 (25 Mar 2020)

Interesting snippet I caught on the Today Program 25/03

Prof somebody or other, had looked at Covid death rates across age groups and was surprised to fine a pretty close correlation with natural death rates. Essentially, his data suggests that 2 weeks of Covid-19 infection carries the same probability of dying as a year of life at whatever age.

The Imperial College analysis suggested that is the infection ran through the uk population unchecked there would be circa 500,000 deaths. There are roughly 600,000 uk deaths annually.


----------



## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Lots of people seem to think that there is something unique about Italy which has made it worse there.
> 
> There almost certainly isn't; the pandemic has progressed at the same rate everywhere, give or take, unless stringent social distancing, and/or test and trace measures are put in place.



Different bits of Italy are quite different. So a huge number of deaths were from Lombardia (there have also been a very large number of deaths in ER/MAR/PIE), which at the time was probably the worst place on earth for the coronavirus up until that point. Unfortunately that may not be the case any more and we will find that out in the next 3-4 days to a week or not. 

A second very big problem with the graph in terms of making comparisons with Italy is this language around lockdown. The national lockdown in Italy doesn't have as much bearing on some bits of the graph as people think. There were two earlier "lockdowns" that aren't on the graph (I'm not saying that a national one isn't a good idea to stop the spread) and sets of measures. If you do comparisons between different countries what one calls a lockdown others call "measures". There were three lots of measures and some will argue that Italy's full lockdown was only implemented last week essentially (this is what I'd argue). Additionally on top of the lockdown Italy has "quarantined" areas well after this and rather late. A question, if Italy has quarantines after a lockdown, doesn't that rather suggest that measures aren't being stuck to or aren't quite as robust as what people say? 

Additionally with Italy if you go on testing regime at a certain point, unfortunately Italy's testing regime's been quite poor. This isn't a great argument for other governments in my opinion because countries that are 2-3 weeks behind should bloody well know better. Italy is still only doing 17000-25,000 tests a day. Our government in a groundhog day moment this morning are reported to have said that yes they are actually only doing 6000 PCR tests a day (this is true), but they hope to get up to 25,000 PCR tests a day by four week's time. Yes, you read that right. Spain also seems to have totally and utterly screwed up testing in the early bits which has resulted in a brave move (or by other accounts no choice move) by the government to roll the dice and buy in antibody tests. 

So in summary you can draw almost any conclusion you want about Italy glossing at the figures.
1. Little testing and a runaway cluster that went largely undetected is why Italy's in the place it is
2. Italy was very late to have an actual lockdown in terms of social distancing measures and compliance (a view not often voiced)
3. Italy didn't do many tests even as the virus progressed (c.f. other countries like singapore).

In Italy itself no1 is popular, no2 is not a popular view at all although in recent days gaining traction and no3 is not a popular view at all. Not that popularity tells you which one is the more applicable one.


----------



## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> ####Told to, but not ordered until Saturday
> Sorry, this is dinner party hair-splitting/determination to win a point.
> And in any case what was the government/any government supposed to do?


It's not hair-splitting or point-scoring - it's what happened. When faced with the choice between the legal duty to deliver profit to shareholders and the moral duty to follow an instruction from Boris with no legal force, some directors arguably chose the legal duty. We can argue about whether Tim Martin had other motivations too, but I think no-one can touch him for his dangerously foolish (I agree with Piers Morgan for once!) outbursts because of the above difference.

It's similar to the requests to other businesses to close. Requests don't allow even the few that have business continuity insurance to claim and so it basically forces some to remain open. People were pointing this out all week.

The government should have stated that licensed premises should close immediately on pain of being ordered completely closed (no takeaways/deliveries) as instances of public disorder (an existing power under the Licensing Act) and they would be instructing licensing authorities to take a very dim view come renewal - and that last bit would have increased the expected financial cost of disobedience to bring the legal duty into line with the moral one. Ideally, this order would have gone out before the weekend's produce had been delivered, not just as they got busy on Friday evening.

Arguably other premises could have been closed as "disorderly houses" as reportedly happened in Scotland, but I'm less familiar with that law, having worked in a public house but not a disorderly house 


Blue Hills said:


> Go on live telly, tell pubs to close NOW THIS INSTANT, despatch our paramilitary police to stand outside pubs, oops, we don't have such such a thing?


That's a false dilemma. There were actions possible between Boris's pathetic requests and his lockdown - besides, are the current closures of non-essential businesses being enforced that way? No, it seems such numbers of paramilitary police isn't required to close things.



Blue Hills said:


> Can you imagine what the effect of such an action would be in so so many ways? [...]


Pubs and licensed cafes and restaurants closed about 30h sooner, less close-proximity mixing on the sunny Saturday, less transmission, fewer hospitalisations, fewer deaths?



Blue Hills said:


> Have no idea what the seargant wilson thing is about.


Boris's requests with no legal effect were as pathetic as the "would you mind awfully...?" ones of posh Sgt Wilson from Dad's Army. I'm surprised anyone doesn't know that character.


----------



## Blue Hills (25 Mar 2020)

Ta for reply marin.
I seem to recall lots of italians headed south after a partial lockdown leaked.
And that the leader of the democratic party (montalbano's brother) went for a well publicised)self publicised drink after lockdowns had been announced.
I Also understand that bar shutdowns came later in the progress of the virus in italy than in britain.
I stress that am not having a go at Italy, just asking for some to cut our bunch a bit of slack. Slagging off brits a full time hobby for some.


----------



## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Interesting snippet I caught on the Today Program 25/03
> 
> Prof somebody or other, had looked at Covid death rates across age groups [...]


Can you remember roughly what time this was, please? If I can find it and work remains quiet today, I'll scrobble and transcribe so we can discuss it.


----------



## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Do you think London might end up worse than Madrid?



We're not getting the details required for Madrid or London. Some commentary seems to suggest that in Madrid social distancing as an umbrella term came in later than other places. I've no idea whether that's the case or not. Some of the stuff Boris and Witty has said (with the former you wonder whether it's a slip of the tongue) suggests that London won't get as bad as Madrid.

When I've heard people on my city talking about the worries in the UK, housing density, multi-generational families and mixing is what they've voiced as worries. These are bits of information not provided about bits of London. I essentially don't know, but suspect it's probably very applicable to if you get clusters there. Madrid there's definitely an element of it going around nursing and retirement homes like wildfire. The UK (probably not London) has a very narrow window of opportunity to stop this here with antibody testing.


----------



## Mr Celine (25 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Does anybody think there is any credibility at all in the notion that the cure is worse than the disease, the argument that crashing the economy in the longer term - reduced prosperity - will do more damage to health than much more limited measures to keep the spread down rather than lockdowns? The idea that a massively contracted British economy for the next 5 years or so will mean less money for the NHS with the obvious knock-on effect.
> 
> I'm not convinced myself, but it's not an argument without some merit.


It's possible -  austerity to blame for 130000 extra deaths.


----------



## PK99 (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Can you remember roughly what time this was, please? If I can find it and work remains quiet today, I'll scrobble and transcribe so we can discuss it.



close to 9 am?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (25 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Different bits of Italy are quite different. So a huge number of deaths were from Lombardia (there have also been a very large number of deaths in ER/MAR/PIE), which at the time was probably the worst place on earth for the coronavirus up until that point. Unfortunately that may not be the case any more and we will find that out in the next 3-4 days to a week or not.
> 
> A second very big problem with the graph in terms of making comparisons with Italy is this language around lockdown. The national lockdown in Italy doesn't have as much bearing on some bits of the graph as people think. There were two earlier "lockdowns" that aren't on the graph (I'm not saying that a national one isn't a good idea to stop the spread) and sets of measures. If you do comparisons between different countries what one calls a lockdown others call "measures". There were three lots of measures and some will argue that Italy's full lockdown was only implemented last week essentially (this is what I'd argue). Additionally on top of the lockdown Italy has "quarantined" areas well after this and rather late. A question, if Italy has quarantines after a lockdown, doesn't that rather suggest that measures aren't being stuck to or aren't quite as robust as what people say?
> 
> ...



No quarrel with any of that. As I said, my conclusion from the data is that all countries have had similar growth rates until stringent control and/or test and trace measures were put in place. The curve from Italy is not an outlier, it's just a few days ahead of the rest. We're bang on track behind them, we'll see whether our measures are more or less effective than theirs. Up until Monday night, I suspect less effective, but that's no more than uninformed personal speculation.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (25 Mar 2020)

Just rang a concrete company, who are listed as a "key" industry so should be staying open, but their entire (Polish) workforce has refused to come in.


----------



## MarkF (25 Mar 2020)

Update from the hospital.

A ton of equipment turned up in the early hours of Monday. So with new masks they are now back to be worn 100% of the time by 100% of the staff in A&E. A big change from "Not needed" last Sunday! Surprisingly the PPE gear is just the same as before, gloves, apron & masks, I was expecting some sort of suit for when the confirmed cases are moved.

The waiting room is dead, has been for a week, regular bed occupancy is very low, I'd guess at 30% so there is huge capacity for those not needing ICU.

ICU is filling up though, there are 3 other wards (so far) for virus cases, wards where there are multiple single rooms. The arrivals are of all ages but the "confirmed"cases so far that I have come into contact with, have all been over 80 and with health problems, physical and/or mental, they won't be going to ICU. What has worried me though, is that these patients look to me like they have arrived direct from care homes.......

No visitors at all allowed in now, only (with restrictions) to maternity & the childrens ward.


----------



## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> A lot of confusion has been generated by having multiple "governments" inside the UK giving different and contradictory instructions.


Where? I criticise Boris for a lot of his shoot and I think it's been the wrong message at times, but he seemed to be doing pretty well in saying effectively the same message as the Welsh and Scottish Governments, as well as most of the regional mayors I've seen on TV, except for a bit of friction with his successor in London.


----------



## johnnyb47 (25 Mar 2020)

Yikes BBC are reporting Prince Charles has the Corona Virus


----------



## Bazzer (25 Mar 2020)

Apologies if this has been posted already, but The Guardian referenced an app for researchers to try to monitor the spread of the virus. https://www.theguardian.com/science...-help-researchers-track-spread-of-coronavirus


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Where? I criticise Boris for a lot of his shoot and I think it's been the wrong message at times, but he seemed to be doing pretty well in saying effectively the same message as the Welsh and Scottish Governments, as well as most of the regional mayors I've seen on TV, except for a bit of friction with his successor in London.


Scottish government said all building sites should close immediately, Westminster said they should stay open.


----------



## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> No quarrel with any of that. As I said, my conclusion from the data is that all countries have had similar growth rates until stringent control and/or test and trace measures were put in place. The curve from Italy is not an outlier, it's just a few days ahead of the rest. We're bang on track behind them, we'll see whether our measures are more or less effective than theirs. Up until Monday night, I suspect less effective, but that's no more than uninformed personal speculation.



There are other countries on the graph not picked up by people out there that are highly relevant and not getting much comment - Belgium and Switzerland. The swiss think they are four days behind Italy. It's then getting into comparing regions or small countries with large countries or bits of large countries. One of the problems talking about Italy and the UK taking it seriously was that 2-4 weeks ago reporting was very sluggish in the UK. Stuff was getting reported that was 24 hours or days out of date. The north of Pisa stuff that was government advice was particularly bizarre as it suggested that our government was looking at the provincial figures (as was I) and not explaining to the media, guys, guys listen I know there's lockdown in 11 municipalities but we have data that shows it's throughout the whole of the north of Italy. 

It's the US that attention will focus on .

As a general point on movements/social distancing, only the governments will have the data to analyse mobile phone movements. We all hear very mixed messages. One of my friend went for a 3 hour walk yesterday and basically said on the phone that pretty much the entirity of people he saw through large areas of the city were sticking to social distancing. Someone on the other side of the city has groups of 10-20 mixing outside all day, called the police, the police being the police seem disinterested probably as they are in a poor area.


----------



## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Pubs and licensed cafes and restaurants closed about 30h sooner, less close-proximity mixing on the sunny Saturday, less transmission, fewer hospitalisations, fewer deaths?



I think this is where the UK government has gone wrong. Things change rapidly, but the politicians seems to have got caught out with making decisions around weekends, perhaps buggering off for a bit and leaving the announcements for Mondays/Fridays. I'm sure the civil service were working on it all the weekend. The news cycle also doesn't help. This has happened twice now. The great exodus also happened in Italy on a you guessed it a weekend (although the government attempted to bring it in sooner and not wait to Monday).


----------



## fossyant (25 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> Update from the hospital.
> 
> A ton of equipment turned up in the early hours of Monday. So with new masks they are now back to be worn 100% of the time by 100% of the staff in A&E. A big change from "Not needed" last Sunday! Surprisingly the PPE gear is just the same as before, gloves, apron & masks, I was expecting some sort of suit for when the confirmed cases are moved.
> 
> ...



Does that mean the elderly won't be on ventilators if not going to ICU ? Sounds worrying. It does show you that A&E is full of time wasters mainly. Boils my wee wee.


----------



## Glow worm (25 Mar 2020)

I'm getting the feeling that some people still aren't taking this thing seriously if my street is anything to go by.

From my study I can see most of my road and one lot of neighbours are just coming and going almost constantly (driving), our elderly neighbours have their cleaner in as normal as does the old boy across the road (who has many health conditions). Another elderly neighbour has been out at least twice already today (driving). I hope this behaviour is unusual or we really are screwed.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)

Bazzer said:


> Apologies if this has been posted already, but The Guardian referenced an app for researchers to try to monitor the spread of the virus. https://www.theguardian.com/science...-help-researchers-track-spread-of-coronavirus


I did post it but it's worth flagging up again.

Plus, you've just reminded me to update my record.....


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## Dave7 (25 Mar 2020)

Can someone clarify something for me please.
As I understand it now I can walk from my house for exercise.
But.....I cannot drive to the park for exercise.
I thought I had read that driving to a park was allowed but I can't find anything to say that now so have I imagined that or have the rules just been tightened?


----------



## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Scottish government said all building sites should close immediately, Westminster said they should stay open.


Did they? I thought both issued the same formal advice (with gov.scot often just pointing at the gov.uk site), but it's not simple (can you build while staying 2m apart? Only some things, not all, I suspect) and the politicians and advisers have interpreted/spun the advice differently. 

Even if there were differences, the division of responsibilities would be clear on health matters: if in Scotland, obey the Scottish government at least. If in England, obey the government in Westminster at least.


----------



## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> Yikes BBC are reporting Prince Charles has the Corona Virus


Even more scary, Radio France just did a full emergency alert thing. You know, the system we were told to expect if nuked. It uses different alert tones to the UK one but it still makes the hair stand on the back of my neck.


----------



## tom73 (25 Mar 2020)

If in any doubt what to do about Covid-19 the following official websites provide information that most people need to know.

*https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/*
*https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus*
*https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england*
Many of the guides also have simple PDF format posters.

*Think you or someone in your household has or may have Covid-19*
_*Don't leave the house *_
*Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital*

_*First thing check using the following link*_

*https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/symptoms-and-what-to-do/*

*If household has possible Covid-19 infection. Not sure what to do once you self Isolate *

*https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance*

The same page also has the same advice in other languages and an easy-read format (for Learning disabilities)

Cleaning the house, what to with household waste, What to do if children are in the house, What to if vulnerable people are in the house
Along with other most other common advice is also covered.

_*Not sure of the how and when the 7/14 day starts and finish. Or a member in the same household get's ill at different times.*_
*https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/874011/Stay_at_home_guidance_diagram.pdf*

NHS Youtube clip also has information about coronavirus (COVID-19) symptoms, when you will need to stay at home and importantly, how long for.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isTGA_UHH-E


Simple Message

_*Stay at home , Stay safe , Protect the NHS*_


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## fossyant (25 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Can someone clarify something for me please.
> As I understand it now I can walk from my house for exercise.
> But.....I cannot drive to the park for exercise.
> I thought I had read that driving to a park was allowed but I can't find anything to say that now so have I imagined that or have the rules just been tightened?



You are probably best walking from home - I'm seeing folk driving to a trail to then get on running gear. Yes you might do this normally, but just run from home, save cash, and don't make the Govt completely lock us down. I've not touched the cars since coming back from Wales on Sunday. I'll walk at lunch, via the shop, to get milk.


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## Joey Shabadoo (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Did they? I thought both issued the same formal advice (with gov.scot often just pointing at the gov.uk site), but it's not simple (can you build while staying 2m apart? Only some things, not all, I suspect) and the politicians and advisers have interpreted/spun the advice differently.
> 
> Even if there were differences, the division of responsibilities would be clear on health matters: if in Scotland, obey the Scottish government at least. If in England, obey the government in Westminster at least.


Sturgeon gave a press conference and explicitly said building sites should close immediately. Caused a lot of grief with some of my customers who had manufacturing plants in Scotland and England working to conflicting "advice".

Even now, Saint Gobain are instructing all their manufacturing plants to re-open. Scottish sites have refused, English sites are open.


----------



## newfhouse (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Can you remember roughly what time this was, please? If I can find it and work remains quiet today, I'll scrobble and transcribe so we can discuss it.


I think it may have been on ”More Or Less” at 9.00 rather than Today.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Where? I criticise Boris for a lot of his shoot and I think it's been the wrong message at times, but he seemed to be doing pretty well in saying effectively the same message as the Welsh and Scottish Governments, as well as most of the regional mayors I've seen on TV, except for a bit of friction with his successor in London.



Only for Matt Hancock to undo all of the above by saying "The only people who should go to work are those who can't work from Home" - Basically every decorator, double glazing installer, Roofer, Chippy - Can this morning go to work.


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## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Can someone clarify something for me please.
> As I understand it now I can walk from my house for exercise.
> But.....I cannot drive to the park for exercise.
> I thought I had read that driving to a park was allowed but I can't find anything to say that now so have I imagined that or have the rules just been tightened?


I'm pretty sure it's a grey area at the moment, but I'd say please don't do it unless you really need to, like you live on a busy or polluted bit of a trunk route with no side roads or footpath near by. Even then, drive to the nearest park (edit: or if that's too busy, at least a nearby one) and not a National Park on the other side of the country.

As mentioned in other threads, if people travel too much unnecessarily then the lockdown won't slow the virus spread enough and it'll probably be tightened at least twice more.


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## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

Some people by me are having double glazing installed FFS !!!!!!!


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## MarkF (25 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Does that mean the elderly won't be on ventilators if not going to ICU ? Sounds worrying. It does show you that A&E is full of time wasters mainly. Boils my wee wee.



I don't they'd be going to ICU anyway, they are "end of life", alive but won't live again. It'd be different for a healthy elderly person, for the time being at least...

Yes, the A&E waiting room is still providing entertainment for staff who travel from all over the hospital to gawp at it! We've had more receptionists that "waiters" for a week.


----------



## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Can someone clarify something for me please.
> As I understand it now I can walk from my house for exercise.
> But.....I cannot drive to the park for exercise.
> I thought I had read that driving to a park was allowed but I can't find anything to say that now so have I imagined that or have the rules just been tightened?


It was mentioned on a BBC Q&A yesterday (BBC Home Affairs correspondent IIRC)

One of my colleagues just said that a friend of his was told to go home by the police when going for a walk by Finsbury Park despite citing the communicated 'rules' - might be they are getting stricter in London (or was an overenthusiastic copper)


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## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Some people by me are having double glazing installed FFS !!!!!!!


It depends what was wrong with the previous glazing. We've no idea how long this lockdown will last. I'm leaving a blown unit until after this shoot, but I would probably still get a cracked one replaced ASAP because I estimate that would be more harmful than the risk of c19 spread with everyone disinfecting everything.

In short: don't judge stuff unless you know all the details. Look after yourself.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (25 Mar 2020)

G3CWI said:


> RecordAceFromNew said:
> 
> 
> > Imho it is shameful for Prof Gupta to venture such rubbish, without proper justification, on such a subject, at a time like this.
> ...


This may come as a shock to you, given your "smart" comment, that I actually read the paper lead authored by said Prof Gupta. The newspapers did not misrepresent her conclusion. 

What is shocking, is that somehow you failed to notice the issue I raised is not whether newspapers publish gospel or garbage, but the propriety of her, as a senior academic, talking to a newspaper (the ft) when her results bear no correlation to what is measured in the real world on such a subject at such a time. 

You might ask if it matters. Actually it does - because unlike some random character who makes "smart" comments on the internet, she couldn't possibly be as naive as not to know that when widely reported, which the story inevitably has been, her false "conclusion", which indicates Italy and UK "have accumulated significant levels of herd immunity" as stated in her paper, has the real potential to encourage complacency, and hence endangering lives due entirely to her "science".


----------



## flake99please (25 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> "Two supermarket delivery vans were torched less than an hour after Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued his lockdown order".
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-52019720



Just my opinion.... Anyone found to be responsible for acts like this/slashing ambulance tyres etc and/or spitting at police/fire/paramedics should have their (and their immediate family) right to any medical assistance revoked during this pandemic. 

Let the scum rot.


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## DCLane (25 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Can someone clarify something for me please.
> As I understand it now I can walk from my house for exercise.
> But.....I cannot drive to the park for exercise.
> I thought I had read that driving to a park was allowed but I can't find anything to say that now so have I imagined that or have the rules just been tightened?



You can drive to somewhere, but if it's busy find somewhere quiet.


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## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

Some visuals for those visually orientated. This is the UK as iankruk and others posted






Someone on wikipedia finally updated the Italy stuff yesterday (I could do this if I could be bothered).









The top figure in Italy (second figure) is the cases per million. The darkest colour (they have shown slightly bodged cutoffs) is roughly 3000 per million population, or in UK terms 300 per 100,000 population. The top graph shows that London is on 30 per 100,000 so about ten times lower than the darkest bits of the second graph (in Italy). It also shows that many areas of the UK excluding London and Wales are the two mid pinky colours i.e. much of the north of Italy outside of the really bad areas. Italian tv (I'm not saying this is right) would look at this and say numbers treble every three days, so London is 6 days behind us, UK is six days behind us (for other areas where it's spread less).

Massive caveats, just confirmed cases, testing regimes different. The virus is believed to have infected much of the north of Italy first etc. Caveat the UK data is one day older I think.

The bottom figure the darkest colour is a province with more than 1000 cases.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> It depends what was wrong with the previous glazing. We've no idea how long this lockdown will last. I'm leaving a blown unit until after this shoot, but I would probably still get a cracked one replaced ASAP because I estimate that would be more harmful than the risk of c19 spread with everyone disinfecting everything.
> 
> In short: don't judge stuff unless you know all the details. Look after yourself.



True - but in 99% of cases installing double glazing isn't going to be essential.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (25 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> We're not getting the details required for Madrid or London. Some commentary seems to suggest that in Madrid social distancing as an umbrella term came in later than other places. I've no idea whether that's the case or not. Some of the stuff Boris and Witty has said (with the former you wonder whether it's a slip of the tongue) suggests that London won't get as bad as Madrid.
> 
> When I've heard people on my city talking about the worries in the UK, housing density, multi-generational families and mixing is what they've voiced as worries. These are bits of information not provided about bits of London. I essentially don't know, but suspect it's probably very applicable to if you get clusters there. Madrid there's definitely an element of it going around nursing and retirement homes like wildfire. The UK (probably not London) has a very narrow window of opportunity to stop this here with antibody testing.



Given the government can only muster c6,500 PCR tests per day (as of yesterday), what hope do we have of getting volume antibody testing anytime soon?

The chart below shows London perhaps will not turn out as badly as Madrid.






On the other hand New York, with a population similar to London, is a shocker.


----------



## G3CWI (25 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> the issue I raised




Fortunately I don't take much notice of the newspapers or random people on the internet when seeking accurate information. But thanks for your efforts which I am sure are well meaning.


----------



## Smokin Joe (25 Mar 2020)

newfhouse said:


> I think it may have been on ”More Or Less” at 9.00 rather than Today.


It was. Probably available on iplayer now and worth a listen.


----------



## Cuchilo (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> True - but in 99% of cases installing double glazing isn't going to be essential.


It could be essential for the people doing the fitting as they may need the money to live on . Not everything is black and white .


----------



## Tenkaykev (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> It's not hair-splitting or point-scoring - it's what happened. When faced with the choice between the legal duty to deliver profit to shareholders and the moral duty to follow an instruction from Boris with no legal force, some directors arguably chose the legal duty. We can argue about whether Tim Martin had other motivations too, but I think no-one can touch him for his dangerously foolish (I agree with Piers Morgan for once!) outbursts because of the above difference.
> 
> It's similar to the requests to other businesses to close. Requests don't allow even the few that have business continuity insurance to claim and so it basically forces some to remain open. People were pointing this out all week.
> 
> ...



Reading your post and wondering about the legal duty to deliver profit that you mentioned. 
I'm aware that the USA tends to have more "predatory" business practices but wondered if things were similar on this side of the pond.

A quick Google led me to this interesting article:

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog...egal-duty-to-maximise-profit-or-to-avoid-tax/


----------



## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Given the government can only muster c6,500 PCR tests per day (as of yesterday), what hope do we have of getting volume antibody testing anytime soon?
> 
> The chart below shows London perhaps will not turn out as badly as Madrid.
> 
> On the other hand New York, with a population similar to London, is a shocker.



This is my problem, that the old graph doesn't include regions. New York is very worrying indeed as hinted. It may turn out to be the worst place on earth. It is a very different place to the industrial belt of Italy and random obscure northern towns that aren't that big or densely populated there where the epicentre in Italy and quickly spread next door to more densely packed (nothing on New York).

In terms of the United Kingdom in antibody test is my understanding is we make them here and have been shipping them around the world. Spain doesn't make them apparently and has had to beg, borrow, and whatever else to get 640,000 tests (they physically have them and have been distributed already) from multiple sources from multiple countries (including the UK). As said in the other post the UK's rather bizarre apparently official position is we will be at 25,000 PCR tests by four week's time! As of this morning. I don't particularly have faith in the UK government to get in the antibody tests, but even if they only get in 100,000 tests by the end of the week (ordered before the announcement apparently with no timescales given) that is a massive improvement on crappy 6000. PCRs. Yes, they aren't the same test there are pluses and minuses for both systems. I don't really have any faith in PCR any more as Italy has hit a brick wall in testing and doesn't seem to be able to get above 17,000-25,000 whatever happens. Great achievement by the chinese rolling it out very quickly, it has it's place, antibody testing seems to me to be the only way to get out of this testing quagmire. Unless these qPCR mobile kits get rolled out.


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## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> It could be essential for the people doing the fitting as they may need the money to live on . Not everything is black and white .


I'm sure that's the reason it's being done.

But at the end of the day they aren't key workers - so are going against what BJ said the other night.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (25 Mar 2020)

Awful news from Spain, over 700 dead announced today, around 25% daily increase still. Terrible.


----------



## fossyant (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I'm sure that's the reason it's being done.
> 
> But at the end of the day they aren't key workers - so are going against what BJ said the other night.



I literally just got my cracked window pane replaced just before this lockdown. The company weren't sure they could do it as they were not sure if staff would turn in.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (25 Mar 2020)

So now Charles has caught it, is displaying mild symptoms "but otherwise remains in good health". 

The bit I have difficulty understanding, is this:

""The tests were carried out by the NHS in Aberdeenshire, where they met the criteria required for testing."

while nurses and doctors on the front line getting symptoms have to self-isolate, because there aren't enough test kits!

Could someone please explain it to me?


----------



## Hugh Manatee (25 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Scottish government said all building sites should close immediately, Westminster said they should stay open.


It is rubbish! I work in tech support and most of my calls come from construction sites all over the UK. Numbers are way down but still am getting more than I thought we would.
All my on site training sessions have been stopped though.


----------



## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

Macron's just said that france are doing 9000 tests a day and will get up to 19,000 by the end of the week. It's not just the UK, Spain and America that are not doing the testing.

The dutch are claiming R_0 is below 1.


----------



## PK99 (25 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Given the government can only muster c6,500 PCR tests per day (as of yesterday), what hope do we have of getting volume antibody testing anytime soon?
> 
> The chart below shows London perhaps will not turn out as badly as Madrid.
> 
> ...



The Log plot turning over is good news.

Indeed NY looks very bad


----------



## glasgowcyclist (25 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Could someone please explain it to me?



You already know, he’s royalty and they enjoy different rules to us commoners.


----------



## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> You already know, he’s royalty and they enjoy different rules to us commoners.



Aside from Charles this is what loads of other celebrities and important people elsewhere in the world have done. Got antibody tests in their cases. The bit that's sad is that all these celebs and nomenklatura have still managed to spread it to the peasants working for them anyway going by if you follow a lot of the stories.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> So now Charles has caught it, is displaying mild symptoms "but otherwise remains in good health".
> 
> The bit I have difficulty understanding, is this:
> 
> ...



I think you know the explanation mate.

It always amazes me when some royal lives well into their 90s - people say "isn't he/#she marvellous". - no they have access to top quality health care 24/7


----------



## Edwardoka (25 Mar 2020)

8mph said:


> By the end of February, he predicted
> 
> I think he might just know a thing or two.


Apologies, it was a facetious comment which isn't worthy of being in this thread, I have deleted it.
It wasn't even aimed at the link you posted.


----------



## Edwardoka (25 Mar 2020)

Tenkaykev said:


> I offer my sincere apologies. May I explain my original post?
> 
> I've not been on social media ( apart from this forum) for several years. I also don't listen to news on a regular basis and what news I do follow tends to be Science /technology /sport related.
> 
> ...


I'm also sorry, it was an unnecessary post by me during a trying time.
You cannot be blamed, at the time of your original post there was a lot of conflicting information kicking about.
I have deleted my sniping comment, and sorry for being an ass about it. Thanks for being so understanding.


----------



## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

From the guardian Rory Carroll

Ireland has changed the criteria for testing for coronavirus to prioritise people that show two symptoms rather than just one, Rory Carroll reports from Dublin.

The National Public Health Emergency Team announced late on Tuesday that people must show fever and at least one sign of respiratory disease, such as coughing or shortness of breath, before being referred for testing.

The change is a response to a backlog of 40,000 cases awaiting testing, and an additional 20,000 people per day seeking testing, which has “cast the net too widely”.

The chief medical officer, Tony Holohan, said this had led to inappropriate testing and the goal now was to focus on people in hospital, healthcare workers and other priority categories.

Of 17,992 tests carried out so far 6% have tested positive. Authorities hope in coming weeks to increase capacity to 15,000 tests a day. Ireland has recorded 1,329 confirmed cases, and seven deaths. Northern Ireland has recorded 172 cases and five deaths.

On Tuesday the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, announced fresh restrictions – all non-essential shops to close, all sport events cancelled, no outdoor gatherings of more than four people – that came into effect at midnight.


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## tom73 (25 Mar 2020)

Holland & Barrett now offering NHS staff discount at H&B staff rate. 

"From today (23/03/2020), until the end of April, we’re offering NHS staff access to our staff discount on all our products in store.
That’s 30% off Holland & Barrett own products, and a 15% discount on all our branded products in store.
It’s simple to claim. Present your NHS ID to our colleagues in store, and we’ll do the rest."


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## Duffy (25 Mar 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> It could be essential for the people doing the fitting as they may need the money to live on . Not everything is black and white .



By that argument, everything can , arguably, be essential just now

That’s not an argument that’s just stupid!

There’s a lot of people in a world of financial hurt just now but that doesn’t justify the contact and risk attached.


----------



## MontyVeda (25 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> No it's lot more complex. At what point do you wash your hand before you glove up? Your cars not clinically clean before you use it so thats a problem. Any thing on the trolley get's on the gloves then on the shopping. Your car door handle is not clean your keys are not. So unless you, your shopping and every thing else you come into contact with go though an autoclave every time you wasting your time. Gloves are not magic fix. Really just wash your hands once you get home and for every thing else. If you do it right and when you need too what ever is on your hands is not a issue.


surely anything on the trolley gets on your hands then on the shopping too?

they way I'm looking at it is this... assume your hands are contaminated and try to avoid spreading it to the trolley or the stock. Of course you'll come back and say "don't go shopping then"


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## Mr Celine (25 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> So now Charles has caught it, is displaying mild symptoms "but otherwise remains in good health".
> 
> The bit I have difficulty understanding, is this:
> 
> ...


More to the point, why is he putting additional strain on Aberdeenshire's NHS resources? Has no one told him to go home?


----------



## MarkF (25 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> By that argument, everything can , arguably, be essential just now
> 
> That’s not an argument that’s just stupid!
> 
> There’s a lot of people in a world of financial hurt just now but that doesn’t justify the contact and risk attached.



I do hope your bathroom doesn't spring a leak tonight and you find your leccy keep tripping out. Some things will be essential.


----------



## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

I think I'm going to stop reading anything related to testing as it is just making me angry. Most countries in the western world seem to be saying we will make ridiculous promises about PCR testing and fail to deliver day after day.

A thought experiment. Say you were an essential employer. Say you have antibody tests you applied to the entire staff.

12.5 % tests come back true positive
12.5 % are false negatives
12.5% are false positives.
62.5% are true negatives.

You isolate positives (25%) of your staff for a week. You repeat a week later and a week later.

This test is horrendous as it has as many false negatives as correct. You take into account those who are negative but have symptoms and isolate them too.

Your sick rate is 30% before the test exists.

Do you use the test? If your sick rate is lower than 30% what are the trade offs? If you apply social distancing and protection even for those who have tested positive and isolate what are the downsides?


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## Duffy (25 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> I do hope your bathroom doesn't spring a leak tonight and you find your leccy keep tripping out. Some things will be essential.



Of course SOME things are, not everything however. 

The argument made was purely financial, what price would you put on possibly infecting somebody?


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## tom73 (25 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> surely anything on the trolley gets on your hands then on the shopping too?
> 
> they way I'm looking at it is this... assume your hands are contaminated and try to avoid spreading it to the trolley or the stock. Of course you'll come back and say "don't go shopping then"



No I won't 

What about the stock already on the shelves ? or for any other stuff you maybe touching ? As soon as you start to pick anything up or touch anything it's now own your gloves and so on and so on.
We don't live in a 100% sterile clinical environment but a socially clean one. 
This virus is no laughing matter it's true but it's not all that cleaver in the outside world.
Gloves are not magic they don't kill the virus. 
Hot water and soap will so just wash your hands as given in advice and if unsure then do it anyway. 
Just keep it simple and wash your hands it really is the best way
It maybe simple but it's effective.


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## MontyVeda (25 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> No I won't
> 
> What about the stock already on the shelves ? or for any other stuff you maybe touching ? As soon as you start to pick anything up or touch anything it's now own your gloves and so on and so on.
> We don't live in a 100% sterile clinical environment but a socially clean one.
> ...


stop saying gloves aren't magic... I'm not claiming they are so stop implying it... thank you. 

edited to add... I'm also not saying that gloves are a viable alternative to hand washing. so you can stop implying that too.


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## Mike_P (25 Mar 2020)

MontyVeda said:


> surely anything on the trolley gets on your hands then on the shopping too?
> 
> they way I'm looking at it is this... assume your hands are contaminated and try to avoid spreading it to the trolley or the stock. Of course you'll come back and say "don't go shopping then"


I'm thinking if I use one of those self scan devices and put the items straight into my own bag do I actually need to use a basket or trolley.


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## DCLane (25 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> I'm thinking if I use one of those self scan devices and put the items straight into my own bag do I actually need to use a basket or trolley.



I've been carrying my own bag / box and using self-scan for a couple of weeks now. That way I'm not touching a basket and a wipe touches the screen, not me, which is then binned.


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## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> I do hope your bathroom doesn't spring a leak tonight and you find your leccy keep tripping out. Some things will be essential.


Yes but the point was - Double glazing replacement s probably isn't essential.


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## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days

Antibody test kits available next week


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## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yes but the point was - Double glazing replacement s probably isn't essential.


What if it was all ordered and paid for 6 weeks ago and it's just become available. Granted it's not essential but I would think that many companies don't have storage for large numbers of units?
There's also a risk that in the current situation they may go out of business before fitting and thus monies paid could be lost


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## Mike_P (25 Mar 2020)

Anyhow how can double glazing be installed with the workmen 2m apart?


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## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Gloves are not magic they don't kill the virus.
> Hot water and soap will so just wash your hands as given in advice and if unsure then do it anyway.
> Just keep it simple and wash your hands it really is the best way
> It maybe simple but it's effective.


"there is always a well-known solution to every human problem — neat, plausible, and wrong." — HL Mencken

How the fark do you expect me to wash my hands in the middle of a food shop? There just aren't enough hand sinks available, especially given the small size of shop toilets means even those in the biggest food shops are now one/two-at-a-time else 2m distance isn't preserved.

Gloves are very much second-best but better than nothing because, used consistently, they mean the hand touching the stock isn't touching your face. Similar to scarves/buffs which will probably do fark-all against a sneeze, but prevents you touching your face unthinkingly.


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## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

Tenkaykev said:


> Reading your post and wondering about the legal duty to deliver profit that you mentioned.
> I'm aware that the USA tends to have more "predatory" business practices but wondered if things were similar on this side of the pond.
> 
> A quick Google led me to this interesting article:
> ...


Indeed. I'm well aware of what the current Companies Act and its predecessors said because I've been part of three social enterprises which have had to subvert that clause deliberately by stating at the outset that we consider member benefit to include primarily non-financial matters and long-term views.

As that blog article notes, it's not an absolute duty, but I don't see a solid defence in those clauses against an accusation of not maximising member benefit if an MD obeyed the PM's request when the shareholders wanted the business to stay open until ordered otherwise. In that situation, (1)(f) is clearly not a defence, (b) to (e) are debatable and we'll see whether (a) would have been a solid defence when we see what the long-term consequences are for Wetherspoons and Sports Direct having tried to stay open, but I'd bet they'll suffer no obvious consequences.


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## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

Another thought experiment. There is enough antibody tests to test only one person in every household in the UK before the end of wave-1. Who in your household do you test? The most vulnerable one? The most economically active? The healthiest? The one that goes outside most under current guidelines?


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## Ming the Merciless (25 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Anyhow who can double glazing be installed with the workmen 2m apart?



Bigger windows


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## Pale Rider (25 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Lots of people seem to think that there is something unique about Italy which has made it worse there.
> 
> There almost certainly isn't; the pandemic has progressed at the same rate everywhere, give or take, unless stringent social distancing, and/or test and trace measures are put in place.
> 
> ...


I am interested in China's progression because they appear to be furthest into the latest outbreak.

@roubaixtuesday - you clearly have a far better understanding of how the graph works than me.

I take it the flattening of the gradient of the line is a positive sign because it indicates fewer new deaths.

Presumably, as it's the left scale that indicates deaths, the line can never go below flat because those people always remain dead.

Does the graph tell us anything else about the rate of infection in China and if it's fizzling out?


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## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Bigger windows


Opposite sides of the glass....


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## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Does the graph tell us anything else about the rate of infection in China and if it's fizzling out?



It has fizzled out in China. However many believe there will be 2nd, 3rd, 4th outbreaks. Some models show a horrific 2nd outbreak in winter. Some others show continuous on/off on/off cycles until a vaccine or mutation or some deus ex machina.


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## flake99please (25 Mar 2020)

Is anyone using this App? and is there any reason not to?

https://covid.joinzoe.com/


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## Ming the Merciless (25 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Another thought experiment. There is enough antibody tests to test only one person in every household in the UK before the end of wave-1. Who in your household do you test? The most vulnerable one? The most economically active? The healthiest? The one that goes outside most under current guidelines?



The one that goes out the most is the most likely to come into contact with others outside that household. So they are the most likely to be exposed to it. Most economically active might just mean they earn the most it tells us nothing about their potential exposure to CoronaVirus. But generally the more your job pays the more likely it's not hands on and that you can work from home. The most vulnerable one by definition is the one most at risk, but also whom should be the most shielded.

Give that the most vulnerable one is being shielded? Any transmission of the virus to them must have come from one of the other two. The most likely being the one who goes out the most. The most economically active one is most likely still going out but still not the one exposed the most. So I'd test the most vulnerable one on the basis that if they have caught it, then it's likely the one who goes out the most brought it into the household. It's also likely they've also exposed the most economically most active one as well.

If they are doing sheilding then it might be that the one who goes out the most interacts with the most economically active who interacts with the most vulnerable. To provide that degree of seperation and shielding. A bit like how computer firewalls are setup.

So the test the most vulnerable.


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## Unkraut (25 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I think the smart money currently, is that 1) lockdown, 2) contact tracing, and 3) border control are all needed to control the virus spreading in the population (keeping R0 under 1, technically speaking).


Thanks for the link - which I waded through! I don't envy the authorities having to decide when to start relaxing restrictions. You can't keep the economy under lockdown for ever, but you don't want to risk a new spread of the virus. This dilemma will get worse with time, but Trump is being premature with wanting to relax shortly - but it it not unreasonable for him to have this in mind at some point.

The latest here, where unfortunately it is too early to know if a very slight decrease in the rate of infections has any significance other than usual variation, is that the main policy is to test, isolate/treat those positive, trace those they have been in contact with and get them into quarantine. This has proved effective in S. Korea for example, but here the testing capacity is not sufficient, and so the other measures i.e. social distancing will have to remain in place. There is no serious hope of the curve flattening out for several days, depending on how the measures introduced prove effective or not.

The press briefing today emphasised that younger people most of whom get through unscathed should not take this for granted, as some have suffered and died at a young age without other existing conditions, if only in small numbers.

I was hoping to post some good news, but it's still too early.


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## Pale Rider (25 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> It has fizzled out in China. However many believe there will be 2nd, 3rd, 4th outbreaks. Some models show a horrific 2nd outbreak in winter. Some others show continuous on/off on/off cycles until a vaccine or mutation or some deus ex machina.



Thanks.

Seems I thought no new deaths in China is better news than it really is.


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## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> There are other countries on the graph not picked up by people out there that are highly relevant and not getting much comment - Belgium and Switzerland. The swiss think they are four days behind Italy. [...]


I listen to and watch daily news from those two and I think that's pretty much it. Policy is a bit fragmented in Switzerland because it's a confederation. Geneva has just unilaterally relaxed qualifications for obtaining unemployment pay because they don't want candidates visiting lots of potential employers - businesses are worried and saying some are struggling to get enough workers. I expect some sort of deal to be done about that soon, especially if more cantons follow Geneva. Maybe some sort of film-prison-visiting-room-style recruitment fairs for many interviews to be done at once with social distancing and sanitary regimes?

Belgium has just had bad news today with a leap up in deaths, amid controversies about what businesses are essential, PPE for workers in those businesses (workers at a pharmacy wholesale transport company walked out after a week of PPE being promised and not arriving) and grumbles about inconsistent application of the lockdown rules with some parks closed and others not. Hand gel sale is now restricted to people with prescriptions (not sure if it's for the gel itself, or another qualifying condition), with purchases logged against your passport record to prevent hoarding. I didn't quite follow whether that was because of short supply or an increase in home poisonings of newly-at-home children and desperate alcoholics, which were both mentioned - possibly the reporters were speculating.

But it could be worse. We could have Trump, who is still dismissing it as "a bad flu". The USA as a whole seems to be at the start of the curve, but I think NY and CA are faring worse....


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## roubaixtuesday (25 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I am interested in China's progression because they appear to be furthest into the latest outbreak.
> 
> @roubaixtuesday - you clearly have a far better understanding of how the graph works than me.
> 
> ...



OK, so first a caveat, I'm not an epidemiologist, merely an engineer, so these are personal views only. 

1. Take great care not to over interpret. The data are subject to ask sorts of unknown bias eg different countries may use different rules whether or not to test and how to attribute deaths. 

2. The reason for using a logarithmic plot is that it gives a straight line if growth is exponential. All it really tells you then is whether the rate is exponential, and how exponential rates vary from country to country. 

3. Flattening out indicates that growth is no longer exponential. That means your control measures have had some effect.

4. It's probably the wrong way to judge if it has "fizzled out". For that, I'd suggest plotting daily deaths. If that's on a consistent downward trend, you're over the worst. And yes, the line can never go down. 

5. Deaths are probably more reliable than cases. The latter is very, very strongly biased by testing policy. 

6. It takes a few weeks from imposition for controls to clearly show in mortality data. 

Conclusions I'd draw (but see caveat above):

1. The virus behaves similarly in all countries: 
without controls, it doubles every 3 days or so. 
2. We're on track to follow Italy at present. 
3. China and Korea have, with different strategies, controlled it effectively

Policy conclusions (personal view): Stringent social distancing now, stringent test and trace once under control until vaccine developed.


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## Ming the Merciless (25 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Another thought experiment. There is enough antibody tests to test only one person in every household in the UK before the end of wave-1. Who in your household do you test? The most vulnerable one? The most economically active? The healthiest? The one that goes outside most under current guidelines?



To add a bit further thought.

If the vulnerable person comes back positive for the anti bodies it may mean that their sheilding can be relaxed as they should have some immunity now. But if it comes back negative then the other two will realise they need to keep shielding the vulnerable person and that what they are doing is working. If you test either of the others and they come back positive. Then they might get a bit lax about taking social distance and hygiene precautions which may lead to the virus being brought on hands into the household. The I'm now immune and can't infect them thinking. Vulnerable person gets infected. Outcome unknown. If you test the one who goes out the most and they come back negative. They may think this social distancing thing isn't necessary and get lax. The economically active person may also come to the same conclusion. Again virus brought into household, vulnerable member gets it. Outcome unknown.

It's best to let the ones who are shielding think they could still be infected at any point and therefore take precautions to protect the vulnerable.


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## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> What if it was all ordered and paid for 6 weeks ago and it's just become available. Granted it's not essential but I would think that many companies don't have storage for large numbers of units?
> There's also a risk that in the current situation they may go out of business before fitting and thus monies paid could be lost



So what ? - you either abide by the guidelines or break them. People need to stop inventing little sub clauses "I'll just do......."


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## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Thanks.
> 
> Seems I thought no new deaths in China is better news than it really is.



A lot of people think there'll be one peak and that's it. This is a very common view in Italy it seems. I think this view is complete nonsense, not that I know any more than them. There are a few 'get lucky' deus ex machinas

a) a medication turns up before winter outbreak
b) a vaccine turns up before winter outbreak
c) it mutates and become weaker (there is evidence this has happened for a limited number of other flus)
d) some mass testing revolution comes along where you can be 'smart' and manage it better until herd immunity or some other mechanism sorts it out.

As I've banged on for some considerable time now, a lot of countries are basically contain and cross their fingers that one of those is happening. I don't know what other governments actually think, but it has seemed to me for quite some time that although a 'partial' solution, that option d is by far our best hope by a country mile in the next few months. I'm not just writing that either because the government have announced validation and test kits out next week, I'd actually prefer the other options to come on stream before winter.


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## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So what ? - you either abide by the guidelines or break them. People need to stop inventing little sub clauses "I'll just do......."


Maybe it's quite possible to observe social distancing. I'm sure when my windows were fitted the two guys worked in different rooms


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## Rocky (25 Mar 2020)

flake99please said:


> and is there any reason not to?
> 
> https://covid.joinzoe.com/


Yes - it won’t tell if you are asymptomatic and so you could still infect your loved ones. It’ll also grab lots of your personal data but give you little in return. Don’t use it.


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## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

flake99please said:


> Is anyone using this App? and is there any reason not to?
> https://covid.joinzoe.com/


You've no way of telling what data it's collecting from your device, it demands permissions like reading your contacts book, accessing your camera/microphone and reading your device storage and data network connections without explaining what it's going to do with all that (beyond having a privacy policy), it's version 0.0.1, reviews suggest it has basic bugs, it's not been uploaded to the more secure appstores... and in general, I feel we shouldn't reward KCL and "Zoe Global Limited" for not supporting the transparent fevermap.net effort.

Sorry for that rant but you did ask why not...  There's going to be a lot of scammers succeeding if people install crap apps just because they've got a famous name on them.


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## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Maybe it's quite possible to observe social distancing. I'm sure when my windows were fitted the two guys worked in different rooms


Again what BJ said the other night overides the 2m rule
Unless you are a key worker - you don't work.


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## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

flake99please said:


> Is anyone using this App? and is there any reason not to?
> 
> https://covid.joinzoe.com/



Someone believes that they'll be able to get an antibody test kit in the next few weeks would be a reason?


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## tom73 (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Maybe it's quite possible to observe social distancing. I'm sure when my windows were fitted the two guys worked in different rooms



So did they arrive in a van each , only loaded the van without help, kept min 2m for everyone else in warehouse, factory floor. 
ect ,ect


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## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Again what BJ said the other night overides the 2m rule
> Unless you are a key worker - you don't work.


I'm just hypothesising why someone might do it. 
Construction has not been banned if the 2m rule can be observed unless that's changed since lunchtime


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## tom73 (25 Mar 2020)

Looking like tomorrow chancellor will finally set out help for the self employed.


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## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> So did they arrive in a van each , only loaded the van without help, kept min 2m for everyone else in warehouse, factory floor.
> ect ,ect


They might live together, who knows. Maybe no one else was in the warehouse? The windows may have been thoroughly sanitised and sat waiting to be fitted for several days in uv sunlight?
I'm not saying it's the right thing to do but it may have been done in full accordance with the rules as they currently stand (whether those rules are right is not down to me, but made by the gov, CMO, CSO, HSE etc)


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## tom73 (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> I'm just hypothesising why someone might do it.
> Construction has not been banned if the 2m rule can be observed unless that's changed since lunchtime



Problem is in many cases it's not proving possible.


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## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)

flake99please said:


> Is anyone using this App? and is there any reason not to?
> 
> https://covid.joinzoe.com/


I'm using it. @Brompton Bruce cautioned against using it on a different thread*, though, lest it give a false sense of security. As far as I can see, it doesn't directly help the people giving the information but it helps medical research build a picture, which may in turn help the info giver.

*And on this thread I subsequently learned.


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## Joey Shabadoo (25 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Looking like tomorrow chancellor will finally set out help for the self employed.


One of my self-employed joiners has been told by his accountant that they're going to take the last 3 year's of self-assessment, divide it by 36 and pay 80% of that. Once agreed, construction sites will close.


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## Blue Hills (25 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> To add a bit further thought.
> 
> If the vulnerable person comes back positive for the anti bodies it may mean that their sheilding can be relaxed as they should have some immunity now. But if it comes back negative then the other two will realise they need to keep shielding the vulnerable person and that what they are doing is working. If you test either of the others and they come back positive. Then they might get a bit lax about taking social distance and hygiene precautions which may lead to the virus being brought on hands into the household. The I'm now immune and can't infect them thinking. Vulnerable person gets infected. Outcome unknown. If you test the one who goes out the most and they come back negative. They may think this social distancing thing isn't necessary and get lax. The economically active person may also come to the same conclusion. Again virus brought into household, vulnerable member gets it. Outcome unknown.
> 
> It's best to let the ones who are shielding think they could still be infected at any point and therefore take precautions to protect the vulnerable.


Thanks for this.
Not arguing with your reasoning it but isn't this very gloomy and horrific?
As in elderly may be under severe threat from this until the end of their lives?

Linked to the severe worry i have about there being no exit strategy until a vaccine?


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> I'm just hypothesising why someone might do it.
> Construction has not been banned if the 2m rule can be observed unless that's changed since lunchtime


Really I thought unless you were a key worker - the message was to stay at home 
If you are a key worker then you observe the 2m rule.

But observing the 2m rule - doesn't overide the key worker statement IMO


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## tom73 (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> They might live together, who knows. Maybe no one else was in the warehouse? The windows may have been thoroughly sanitised and sat waiting to be fitted for several days in uv sunlight?
> I'm not saying it's the right thing to do but it may have been done in full accordance with the rules as they currently stand (whether those rules are right is not down to me, but the gov, CMO, CSO, HSE etc)



Unless these hypothetical windows are broken or unsafe having the window men round just to fit new windows in the current situation is not the best way to keep safe and save a lives.


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## Rocky (25 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'm using it. @Brompton Bruce cautioned against using it on a different thread, though, lest it give a false sense of security. As far as I can see, it doesn't directly help the people giving the information but it helps medical research build a picture, which may in turn help the info giver.


If it’s official NHS research it should have been approved by an official research ethics committee and offer a GDPR statement about what will happen to your data, how you can opt out and how you can get your data deleted. You should also know exactly what your data is being used for. As a member of an NHS REC, I’d counsel against using it.

Edit: their existing GDPR statement doesn’t say exactly what your data is being used for. I also see that they use Amazon and Google to process it.


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## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Unless these hypothetical windows are broken or unsafe having the window men round just to fit new windows in the current situation is not the best way to keep safe and save a lives.


Why don't you ask @fossyant neightbour why they need the windows replaced?


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## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Really I thought unless you were a key worker - the message was to stay at home
> If you are a key worker then you observe the 2m rule.
> 
> But observing the 2m rule - doesn't overide the key worker statement IMO


No, construction is permitted for now. It's all over the news
Coronavirus: Construction firms split as shutdown calls grow https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52034586
The message is to stay at home unless your job cannot be done at home and if you do go to work, observe 2m rule, handwashing etc. Maybe this will change as it should.

Have you not watched the press conferences?


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## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Thanks for this.
> Not arguing with your reasoning it but isn't this very gloomy and horrific?
> As in elderly may be under severe threat from this until the end of their lives?
> 
> Linked to the severe worry i have about there being no exit strategy until a vaccine?



Who would you give it to in your family (we can go beyond households here)?

I would give it to my father, but I think the logical choice on best outcome is probably for me to have the test.


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## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> No, construction is permitted for now. It's all over the news
> Coronavirus: Construction firms split as shutdown calls grow https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52034586
> The message is to stay at home unless your job cannot be done at home and if you do go to work, observe 2m rule, handwashing etc. Maybe this will change as it should.
> 
> Have you not watched the press conferences?


Well the first paragraph says "amid confusion about the advice"

Think Hancock muddied the waters with his "unless you can't work from home" - really if we allow that there isn't really a lockdown and the virus will continue to spread.


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## Blue Hills (25 Mar 2020)

Reply to @marinyork above

I wasn't addressing who should have the test issue. Rather the worry of never being able to relax with regard to elderly people, ie the fact that even if you have had it you can still pass it on.


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## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well the first paragraph says "amid confusion about the advice"
> 
> Think Hancock muddied the waters with his "unless you can't work from home" - really if we allow that there isn't really a lockdown and the virus will continue to spread.


Clearly there is confusion but that's what has been published
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...dance-on-staying-at-home-and-away-from-others
A window fitter clearly can't wfh unless fitting their own windows


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## marinyork (25 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> I wasn't addressing who should have the test issue. Rather the worry of never being able to relax with regard to elderly people, ie the fact that even if you have had it you can still pass it on.



Exactly. If I had it and tested positive I would still be worried that I could pass it on and somehow got it so still be doing the same things. I'd have a bit of protection so less likely to pass it on.

If I knew I was negative I'd carry on doing the same things as they have worked.

Either way as you say no relaxing.


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## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Clearly there is confusion but that's what has been published
> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...dance-on-staying-at-home-and-away-from-others
> A window fitter clearly can't wfh unless fitting their own windows



I think you are looking for loopholes - and sure you can find them and look pretty clever in the process.
General principle is that if you aren't a key worker stay at home.


----------



## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think you are looking for loopholes - and sure you can find them and look pretty clever in the process.
> General principle is that if you aren't a key worker stay at home.


Look, I'm sorry if you think the government isn't being as strict as you would, but the guidelines are what they are and it's not for us to judge each other, or try to con others into following stricter rules.


----------



## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think you are looking for loopholes - and sure you can find them and look pretty clever in the process.
> General principle is that if you aren't a key worker stay at home.


I'm not at all, that's been the guidance, there's no mention of key workers in bullet 4 number staying at home
The news has been completely full of reports about the self employed, especially construction workers having to travel and work away from the home as the provisions for the self employed have not yet been confirmed.

Anyhow it's all there to read, watch, listen to so I'm done


----------



## nickyboy (25 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> One of my self-employed joiners has been told by his accountant that they're going to take the last 3 year's of self-assessment, divide it by 36 and pay 80% of that. Once agreed, construction sites will close.


This would be similar to some other European countries which have already announced. There will be an upper limit, presumably the same as PAYE claimants


----------



## fossyant (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Why don't you ask @fossyant neightbour why they need the windows replaced?



Bob the Nob was replacing one of the neighbours windows earlier this week. He's not working now though, van hasn't moved. Just glad ours got fixed as the internal pane had cracked top to bottom with a hole near the top where the glass fractured.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> One of my self-employed joiners has been told by his accountant that they're going to take the last 3 year's of self-assessment, divide it by 36 and pay 80% of that. Once agreed, construction sites will close.


Hilarious if true. There will be a lot of hard up Sparky's , decorators, chippies - who stick £10k profits on the books each year !!!


----------



## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Hilarious if true. There will be a lot of hard up Sparky's , decorators, chippies - who stick £10k profits on the books each year !!!


Seems potentially there'll be a £2500 ceiling / month as for those on PAYE (and they'll take back any overpayments)
...those who have cooked the books might find HMRC looking more closely at their last 3 years accounts?


----------



## Julia9054 (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Seems potentially there'll be a £2500 ceiling / month as for those on PAYE (and they'll take back any overpayments)
> ...those who have cooked the books might find HMRC looking more closely at their last 3 years accounts?


What happens if they don't yet have 3 years accounts?


----------



## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> What happens if they don't yet have 3 years accounts?


No idea - maybe they'll estimate based on what there is and if after 3 years there's been overpayment, the money will be charged back?

maybe @Joey Shabadoo knows

This hasn't actually been announced yet (tomorrow by all accounts).

When it is, contact your accountant


----------



## Racing roadkill (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Look, I'm sorry if you think the government isn't being as strict as you would, but the guidelines are what they are and it's not for us to judge each other, or try to con others into following stricter rules.


Quite right, and the rule isn’t ‘Key workers’ are the only ones allowed to work, it’s ‘if your role in a company makes it impossible to work from home you can go to work, as long as your employer is still functioning’


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Seems potentially there'll be a £2500 ceiling / month as for those on PAYE (and they'll take back any overpayments)
> ...those who have cooked the books might find HMRC looking more closely at their last 3 years accounts?


I thought the opposite - those who work cash in hand - and don't put a lot income through the books are going to get 80% of that declared income.


----------



## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I thought the opposite - those who work cash in hand - and don't put a lot income through the books are going to get 80% of that declared income.


More fool them then


----------



## Ming the Merciless (25 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Thanks for this.
> Not arguing with your reasoning it but isn't this very gloomy and horrific?
> As in elderly may be under severe threat from this until the end of their lives?
> 
> Linked to the severe worry i have about there being no exit strategy until a vaccine?



Not really as vaccines will come but they take time. That’s what we are buying right now, time.


----------



## Dave7 (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Maybe it's quite possible to observe social distancing. I'm sure when my windows were fitted the two guys worked in different rooms


Slightly different. We have a gardener once a fortnight. He has a key to the gate.
I left him the money in an envelope. He came, did the job, took the money and went. So, technically non urgent but he observed all the social distance stuff.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (25 Mar 2020)

No idea if the self-employed thing is true, just what I've been told. Whilst there are those who downplay their income, they're a minority. Guys working on the sites are paid through the contractor-sub contractor chain and records are kept.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> No idea if the self-employed thing is true, just what I've been told. Whilst there are those who downplay their income, they're a minority. Guys working on the sites are paid through the contractor-sub contractor chain and records are kept.


I used to work at HMRC and in certain professions the majority of cases I investigated were under declaring.
Tax evasion is much more rife than benefit fraud - but for some reason benefit fraud gets the headlines.


----------



## Skibird (25 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> Of course SOME things are, not everything however.
> 
> The argument made was purely financial, what price would you put on possibly infecting somebody?


It MAY have been purely financial BUT the self employed are the only one's at present that are not being offered ANY support, unlike ALL those on PAYE, so unless you are that self employed parent, wondering how you are going to put food on the table (WHICH IS A REALITY), who are you to judge? Nothing about this is black and white and every situation is different.


----------



## nickyboy (25 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Seems potentially there'll be a £2500 ceiling / month as for those on PAYE (and they'll take back any overpayments)
> ...those who have cooked the books might find HMRC looking more closely at their last 3 years accounts?


And you will have to deduct any income you actually manage to earn in this period from the claim. Taking my example I'm above the upper limit for last three years on self assessed earnings. I will have a smallish retainer continuing throughout so that will need to come off the £2,500 a month (or whatever it is)


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## roubaixtuesday (25 Mar 2020)

@Pale Rider re earlier questions on "fizzling out", there's a great resource here:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The plots produced are cases rather than deaths, which makes it prone to testing bias, but you can look by country.

China clearly has it licked, Italy may just have turned a corner.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

If these testing kits are to be available on Amazon - won't they just instantly go out of stock ?


----------



## Skibird (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think you are looking for loopholes - and sure you can find them and look pretty clever in the process.
> General principle is that if you aren't a key worker stay at home.


 No, Vickster is correct. Every day the PM has said more than once, " you can go to work if you *can't work from home*, but if you have to go to work, observe the guidelines set by the WHO".


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## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

Skibird said:


> No, Vickster is correct. Every day the PM has said more than once, " you can go to work if you *can't work from home*, but if you have to go to work, observe the guidelines set by the WHO".



The initial statement from BJ said only go to work if absolutely necessary.

Since then I believe Matt Hancock - has diluted this by saying you go to work if you can't work from home.

There is confusion as trade unions and sadik Khan have called for non essential construction work to be halted.

I was just going on BJ Address to the nation.


----------



## Tanis8472 (25 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> @Pale Rider re earlier questions on "fizzling out", there's a great resource here:
> 
> https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
> 
> ...



Could have used a better word


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

Skibird said:


> No, Vickster is correct. Every day the PM has said more than once, " you can go to work if you *can't work from home*, but if you have to go to work, observe the guidelines set by the WHO".


Here you go - hope this clarifies it 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52034586


"But Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, told ITV only construction workers doing jobs "critical to the economy" should go in.
He added that* builders should not be going into people's homes."*


----------



## SpokeyDokey (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Here you go - hope this clarifies it
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52034586
> 
> 
> ...



I think that this argument is going around in circles and heading nowhere tbh.

The ruling is currently that you can go to work if you cannot do the work at home and subject to the work being carried out with the 2m restriction in place.

This enables many small businesses to keep going (helps generate some tax to pay for the support package plus reduces payout from the package in the first place).

I can see no reason why gardeners, landscapers, roofers, scaffolders, painters (exterior) etc should be restricted from working if they are compliant with the 2m rule - they are outside workers who often have minimal/zero contact with their customers on a daily basis.


----------



## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> The initial statement from BJ said only go to work if absolutely necessary.


which is not what you kept posting. You seemed to have conflated it with something about key workers.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think that this argument is going around in circles and heading nowhere tbh.
> 
> The ruling is currently that you can go to work if you cannot do the work at home and subject to the work being carried out with the 2m restriction in place.
> 
> ...



Tell Michael Gove that then.

Because of the inhaler I take I can't ride my bike - I don't agree with it - but will abide by it.


----------



## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

Wetherspoons boss tries not to pay staff https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/wetherspoons-refuses-pay-entire-workforce-21744741


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Wetherspoons boss tries not to pay staff https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/wetherspoons-refuses-pay-entire-workforce-21744741


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)

Aren't the Engand death figures out by this time of day? The delay is ominous.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Aren't the Engand death figures out by this time of day? The delay is ominous.


and the splurge of good (ish) upbeat news - .......holds breath....


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)




----------



## Saluki (25 Mar 2020)

I went to work this morning, grabbed my laptop, drove to site, got my screen, teabags (priorities) and the outstanding paperwork on my desk. I have borrowed a scanner from a friend and ready to work from home.

I would have worked this afternoon but open reach was faddling about as there appeared to be a large problem with our nearby cabinet. No network for an hour, he told us. I took the opportunity for a ride. I have also braved Morrison’s and filled my freezer. I need no shopping for a fortnight at least, except milk. I got the last one.


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## vickster (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Here you go - hope this clarifies it
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52034586
> 
> 
> ...


There is a Q&A on BBC right now, maybe watch it, they've just been talking about this. I think on iPlayer you can go back to the start 👍 Workmen can go into a home for repairs and maintenance but they must maintain the 2m distance

And reread the link that has been posted multiple times on the forum  I'd take that over the BBC website and Gove on the ITV news


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## fossyant (25 Mar 2020)

Not seen any figures for today, which is worrying.


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## Smokin Joe (25 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Not seen any figures for today, which is worrying.


Or maybe good news. The media love the bad stuff, it sells papers and attracts viewers.


----------



## fossyant (25 Mar 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> Or maybe good news. The media love the bad stuff, it sells papers and attracts viewers.



Given how London is behaving......


----------



## glasgowcyclist (25 Mar 2020)

“This critical worker definition does not affect whether or not you can travel to work - if you are not a critical worker, you may still travel to work provided you cannot work from home.”

That’s from the current government guidelines at https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...dance-on-staying-at-home-and-away-from-others


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## Ming the Merciless (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If these testing kits are to be available on Amazon - won't they just instantly go out of stock ?



Probably be bought up by the hypochondriacs not displaying nor having displayed any symptoms. Thus those showing symptoms won’t be able to get hold of the tests.


----------



## Milzy (25 Mar 2020)

Had a great day in lock down. There's so many factories out there producing pointless stuff that shouldn't be still. 
Management putting wealth before lives.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Not seen any figures for today, which is worrying.


Yes, I'd just mentioned the ominously missing figures a few minutes ago. Only the other UK countries - totalling 13 - have been released, but England's haven't.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (25 Mar 2020)

Likely 2,000 more positive test results today. Which means 2,000 more cases which have reached hospitals a few days back given the lead time on results.


----------



## Mugshot (25 Mar 2020)

Some pics from google earth of the some normally busy areas;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51948578


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## Joey Shabadoo (25 Mar 2020)

Our cleaning lady said she was working from home today so she's emailed us instructions.


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## Joey Shabadoo (25 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Some pics from google earth of the some normally busy areas;
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51948578


Puerto del Sol, Madrid

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/it/webcam/espana/comunidad-de-madrid/madrid/puerta-del-sol.html


----------



## Tail End Charlie (25 Mar 2020)

Today I considered going for a bike ride, but thought "no, I'll do the right thing and stay at home and do some jobs". So I got out my log splitter and started to split some logs ready for the future. One of the logs pinged off with some force (they sometimes do that when they're getting a bit dry) and now I have a large tender lump on my shin which is bruising up nicely, chiz chiz. What's the saying? A good turn never goes unpunished?


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## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)

28 dead for England. Better, far better. than I feared.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)

If anybody was watching BBC News about 30 minutes ago, there was a new study that suggested that 50% of the UK population had already had the virus. However, as I was busy at the time, I missed whose report it was. Did anybody see it? All I got was the 50% and the fact that it hadn't been peer reviewed yet.


----------



## Cuchilo (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Here you go - hope this clarifies it
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52034586
> 
> 
> ...


Can you tell us your financial situation while on lock down ? I know you wont but thought i would ask anyway .


----------



## Ming the Merciless (25 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> If anybody was watching BBC News about 30 minutes ago, there was a new study that suggested that 50% of the UK population had already had the virus. However, as I was busy at the time, I missed whose report it was. Did anybody see it? All I got was the 50% and the fact that it hadn't been peer reviewed yet.



This was based on some modelling that made a number of assumptions based on unknown data. It’s been debunked.


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## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> If anybody was watching BBC News about 30 minutes ago, there was a new study that suggested that 50% of the UK population had already had the virus. However, as I was busy at the time, I missed whose report it was. Did anybody see it? All I got was the 50% and the fact that it hadn't been peer reviewed yet.


I think one of BJs senior team dismissed it - saying we just don't know.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> Can you tell us your financial situation while on lock down ? I know you wont but thought i would ask anyway .


If you like - I earn £30k PA - married with 2 older kids - 1 working - 1 at uni ......my wife is disabled.

Not sure how that progresses things - but there you have it.


----------



## Cuchilo (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If you like - I earn £30k PA - married with 2 older kids - 1 working - 1 at uni ......my wife is disabled.
> 
> Not sure how that progresses things - but there you have it.


So benefits and i guess you still get paid while this is happening ? Coining it in is a phrase thats often used but not by me .


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> So benefits and i guess you still get paid while this is happening ? Coining it in is a phrase thats often used but not by me .


£30k - coining it ? - doesn't feel like it !


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think one of BJs senior team dismissed it - saying we just don't know.


Do you have any recollection of whose report it was? Just out of curiousity and a sneaking feeling that there was an odd virus in the community back in February.


----------



## Wobblers (25 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> I did see it . I'd also seen various pieces from multiple different companies around the UK some of which said they were in talks and others said nope, not heard anything from any UK lot. I do believe you, just not wanting to post much until more finalised.
> 
> There are massive issues with logistics. Even if happens as Spain where I understand what happened it they had to get 20,000 test kits here, 40,000 there and so on to make up 640,000. Even 10,000 test kits is transformational. On the ventillators or other equipment logistical issues around assembly and parts are having to be overcome.
> 
> ...



It's important to understand that PCR and antibody tests are not equivalent.

The antibody kits are looking for antibodies that are produced by the immune system a few days after infection. That means someone can be infected, yet test negative. In fact, they'll almost certainly test negative in the important first few days where they're asymptomatic but can still infect others. It is however, very useful in identifying which people have been exposed to the virus (and are now hopefully resistant).

The PCR test is sensitive to virtal RNA. It can't identify whether or not someone has been exposed to the virus. It will unambiguously identify where someone has an active infection. It can tell you who should - must - be quarantined. Hence your suggestion that someone who tests positve with the antibosy test should be isolated until the PCR test comes back clear. Unfortunately this isn't enough - this will miss those in the early stages.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (25 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Do you have any recollection of whose report it was? Just out of curiousity and a sneaking feeling that there was an odd virus in the community back in February.



Knock yourself out, University of Oxford model.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf?dl=0


----------



## Rezillo (25 Mar 2020)

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.m1216.full.pdf

Not totally debunked but looking very flawed. It's being rubbished but not so much that its critics would look completely wrong-footed if it turned out to be right

Even if it is correct, there seems to be no disagreement on either side of measures to control its spread now; the main impact is on what happens afterwards. Widespread testing will show who's right.


----------



## mjr (25 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> 28 dead for England. Better, far better. than I feared.


When would someone infected in the pub or on the beach last weekend be likely to die?


----------



## kingrollo (25 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> When would someone infected in the pub or on the beach last weekend be likely to die?


I think on average 14 days ??? ( Although I believe that is 14 days after symptoms start)


----------



## ozboz (25 Mar 2020)

I was on the Sainsbury’s patrol today to see what I could get as it was late-ish
Hardly no bread, chicken ,tinned stuff or no this and no that , and yet .,,,,





No shortage on this stuff !! 😂😂


----------



## slowmotion (25 Mar 2020)

^^^^^^ That looks like a pallet of Corona, fourth from right. Like all Mexican lagers, it's utter filth.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (25 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Yes, I'd just mentioned the ominously missing figures a few minutes ago. Only the other UK countries - totalling 13 - have been released, but England's haven't.





deptfordmarmoset said:


> 28 dead for England. Better, far better. than I feared.



Strangely nothing at https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public yet, still saying:
"As of 9am on 24 March 2020, a total of 90,436 people have been tested, of which 82,359 were confirmed negative and 8,077 were confirmed positive. 422 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died."

I take note of the website because it tells you how many have been tested cumulatively, which lets you work out how many were tested in the last 24 hours.

The fatality of 41 is surprisingly low. I suspect it is incomplete or something, and will probably catch up tomorrow.

On a separate note, a friend in Kings Lynn has been assisted via 111 for a week and was sent by 111 to the local A&E today due to new and ominous neurological symptoms on top of other CV symptoms, turned up at the hospital, and found not a single hospital worker was wearing a mask or gloves. The first hospital staff she saw licked her finger to pick up every single form before handing them out to patients...

No, my friend is not the Duchess of Cornwall, so she was sent packing with some co-codamol without any test, after being told tests are only done on very very ill patients.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (25 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Strangely nothing at https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public yet, still saying:
> "As of 9am on 24 March 2020, a total of 90,436 people have been tested, of which 82,359 were confirmed negative and 8,077 were confirmed positive. 422 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died."
> 
> I take note of the latter site because it tells you how many have been tested cumulatively, which lets you work out how many were tested in the last 24 hours.
> ...


I thought it low as well. BTW, apparently the number is 43. Perhaps I misheard


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (25 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I thought it low as well. BTW, apparently the number is 43. Perhaps I misheard


In the ft about an hour ago:
"A further 28 people, aged between 47 and 93, have died after testing positive for coronavirus in England, NHS England said, bringing the total deaths in the UK to 463. "

It was 422 yesterday. So 41.


----------



## Duffy (25 Mar 2020)

Skibird said:


> It MAY have been purely financial BUT the self employed are the only one's at present that are not being offered ANY support, unlike ALL those on PAYE, so unless you are that self employed parent, wondering how you are going to put food on the table (WHICH IS A REALITY), who are you to judge? Nothing about this is black and white and every situation is different.



So a wage for one is potentially worth another’s life?
At what price level would that start and stop for example??


----------



## Pat "5mph" (25 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> In the ft about an hour ago:
> "A further 28 people, aged between 47 and 93, have died after testing positive for coronavirus in England, NHS England said, bringing the total deaths in the UK to 463. "
> 
> It was 422 yesterday. So 41.



Where is the news about the 19 year old that died yesterday in London?
One of many that doesn't get counted, maybe?
Who are the 90.436 people tested so far?
Nobody gets tested here in Scotland afaik: if you have the symptoms you are told to self isolate for 7 days, after that, phone the NHS helpline and hope for the best.

There is a parody of Boris circulating on Italian social media.
An old Granny phones her pal, tells her to stay at home.
Old Italian Granny tells her pal (who doesn't have a TV!) that Merkel and Macron too say "stay home!" while Boris says old people must die .....
I won't link, because it doesn't have subtitles.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (25 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> So a wage for one is potentially worth another’s life?
> At what price level would that start and stop for example??


I think the argument about builders and the likes allowed to go out to work is a red herring.
What about the numerous corner shops still operating?
Social distancing for customer and staff is not happening, due to the size of the premises, also due to unawareness (or disregard).
Last time I visited a major supermarket, two days ago, staff still had no shield whatsoever, social distancing among customers was non existent.
Myself, I was working with the public until last Thursday, now I'm attending hospital daily.
On my first visit to hospital, on Tuesday it was, the clinical person who was administering my treatment said "oh, our elderly are resilient" ... yes, like Italy and Spain have such a fragile population that they are dying by the thousands.
Today they were going around with a measuring tape between the chairs in the waiting area.
Sorry, seems all a wee (big!) bit too late when we all know, in real time, what has been happening abroad.


----------



## stowie (25 Mar 2020)

A member of staff teaching my daughter's class has been tested positive for COVID-19 - the school sent an email today. She is in primary school, so can only be the teacher, supply teacher she had for a day or the TAs. She finished school on Friday whilst many parents withdrew their children earlier last week but I sent her because it is drummed into us parents that children cannot miss any school and the guidance about whether absences at this time would be ignored or treated as unauthorised was very unclear.

I feel very guilty now - as most parents do about anything to do with their children!

None of us are exhibiting symptons and I assume we should make sure we don't go out at all until 7 days after the school shut to be sure although the guidance would appear to instruct self-isolation only if a member of the household has symptons.

The school was still open for children of essential workers until today. The school is now shut for deep cleaning and those children are being placed in another local school which seems potential for spreading it, but I guess it is either that or a bunch of essential workers end up unable to work.

It has really brought home to me just how serious this is.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (25 Mar 2020)

Went to our local Morrisons this evening and we had to queue outside (fine) the process of which was controlled by a very surly security guy and...

... whilst waiting outside a trolley man came trundling along and bumped into lovely Wife - great!

... whilst perusing the toiletries section a staff member came and stood right by Lovely Wife to check a price, Lovely Wife complained and the staff member apologised.

... two staff pushed by us with large stock cages and we didn't have time to get out of the way. We complained and just got two dirty looks.

... about 5 or 6 customers in the store got very close to us and we complained to all of them and one guy got stroppy.

Morrisons paying lip service to the 2m restriction and some of Joe Public simply have not got a clue.

Went to Customer Service to give them details of our experience and the Duty Manager could not be found!!!

Gave up and went home.

Mad world!


----------



## stowie (25 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> What about the numerous corner shops still operating?



Our local "corner shops" are operating strict restrictions on the number of people in the store and some are card only now. Our independent food shops tend to be quite big (usually bigger than the average Tesco metro) as they carry a large variety of stock to cater for the diverse population in my area so I guess this helps.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (25 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> Our local "corner shops" are operating strict restrictions on the number of people in the store and some are card only now. Our independent food shops tend to be quite big (usually bigger than the average Tesco metro) as they carry a large variety of stock to cater for the diverse population in my area so I guess this helps.


Different here, corner shops are really small.
I've also seen several small takeaways still operating, without enforcing the social distance rule, which could not be enforced between staff anyway.
It will take a month from now until the peak of contagions is revealed, imo.


----------



## PK99 (25 Mar 2020)

We are in 14 day quarantine.

A friend did some shopping for us at Waitrose mid morning today.

Car park half full.
Widely spaced queue to get in
1 out 1 in 
Very limited number of people in store
Everything we wanted in stock
Only alternate checkout tills occupied
Enough tills that max 1 person queueing behind person ar checkout.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (26 Mar 2020)

Just out:

"As of 9am on 25 March 2020, a total of 97,019 people have been tested, of which 87,490 were confirmed negative and 9,529 were confirmed positive. 463 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died."

We knew the (surprisingly low) fatalities. What the figures above show, is that only 6,583 were tested during the past 24 hours, with another 1,452, or 22% testing positive. The number of people tested and % positive hardly changed from the previous day.

It was last Wednesday at PMQ when Boris said tests would be increased to 10,000 then 25,000 a day, and the nhs said ramping up to 10,000 over two weeks ago.

Where are the test kits? And then the lack of PPE for folks on the front line, it is utter shambles.


----------



## ozboz (26 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Went to our local Morrisons this evening and we had to queue outside (fine) the process of which was controlled by a very surly security guy and...
> 
> ... whilst waiting outside a trolley man came trundling along and bumped into lovely Wife - great!
> 
> ...


On a similar note, I was in Waitrose Sheen, in one of the food isles there were 3 members of staff each with a cage , supposedly filling the shelves , but they were having a jolly dee time launching empty boxes at each other jumping up and down and squealing like kids and blocking the isle so shoppers were having a problem passing and taking things off the shelves , you would hope a manager would sort them out , but when you need one ......


----------



## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Went to Customer Service to give them details of our experience and the Duty Manager could not be found!!!


Well, at least one member of staff was keeping their distance! Isn't that what you wanted?


----------



## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> .
> I feel very guilty now - as most parents do about anything to do with their children!


Please try not to. You did what you thought best based on what you knew at that time. That's the best you can do.

Now just keep an eye on her and watch out for symptoms, maybe taking her temperature daily or twice a day until next week and take good care of each other as I expect you would anyway.


----------



## Skibird (26 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> So a wage for one is potentially worth another’s life?
> At what price level would that start and stop for example??


I have already said, who are you to judge when someone has to work out how they are going to put food on the table for their family???? And again, nothing is black and white, every situation is different. If I was a builder, I would not want to go to one of the construction sites we have been seeing, however, 1 person repairing/building/maintaining something while following PHE guidelines is a totally different situation.


----------



## Mugshot (26 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Went to our local Morrisons this evening and we had to queue outside (fine) the process of which was controlled by a very surly security guy and...
> 
> ... whilst waiting outside a trolley man came trundling along and bumped into lovely Wife - great!
> 
> ...


I had similar in Tesco yesterday. Had to pop in for a prescription.
The pharmacy has a barrier across so you can't lean on the counter. I made like a queue, well back from the woman that was already being served and eventually got beckoned down to the other end of the barrier by another assistant. So far so good.
Then two members of staff came along with rolls of tape and called over to ask the pharmacist which way they were queueing people etc. They decided that given the size of the area they should put another taped square on the floor "Where the man is standing" and started walking over to me, so I backed away. "No, you're ok, we just wanted to put some tape on the floor." 
There were a few other little incidents too, simliar to yours (I only needed a pack of butter so was only in there for minutes), including at the self service where the assistant, that was very busy scrubbing everything down along with two of her colleagues, didn't seem to realise when she beckoned me in to use one of the machines that the markings on the floor applied to her as well and wouldn't move from the entrance until I final gesticulated shooing away while asking her to move back.


----------



## alicat (26 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Went to our local Morrisons this evening and we had to queue outside (fine) the process of which was controlled by a very surly security guy and...
> 
> ... whilst waiting outside a trolley man came trundling along and bumped into lovely Wife - great!
> 
> ...



Similar in my local Morrisons. None of the staff were observing the 2m rule so I turned on my heels and went home.


----------



## nickyboy (26 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Went to our local Morrisons this evening and we had to queue outside (fine) the process of which was controlled by a very surly security guy and...
> 
> ... whilst waiting outside a trolley man came trundling along and bumped into lovely Wife - great!
> 
> ...


My only advice would be to not give up

This is ultra serious. As a nation we aren't great complainers. But times being what they are we have to tell people to back off whether they like it or not. And we have to tell people in charge of "essential stores" if their staff or customers aren't following the 2m requirements

Lives really are at stake as we all know so we all need to abandon our British reserve and tell folk like it is


----------



## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> My only advice would be to not give up
> 
> This is ultra serious. As a nation we aren't great complainers. But times being what they are we have to tell people to back off whether they like it or not. And we have to tell people in charge of "essential stores" if their staff or customers aren't following the 2m requirements
> 
> Lives really are at stake as we all know so we all need to abandon our British reserve and tell folk like it is


Indeed. Don't only post here. Post on their social media or email them. Needs to go higher than store manager by the sounds of it.


----------



## Levo-Lon (26 Mar 2020)

Dyson have been ordered to make 10,000 ventilators surley they could find a company that doesn't charge 4x more for their products than everyone else  he'll be crowing about his special futuristic bellows that he will be convinced is the future..

I should visit the " companies you won't use after" thread


----------



## Dave Davenport (26 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Dyson have been ordered to make 10,000 ventilators surley they could find a company that doesn't charge 4x more for their products than everyone else  he'll be crowing about his special futuristic bellows that he will be convinced is the future..
> 
> I should visit the " companies you won't use after" thread



I hope they're better quality than his vacuum cleaners, which are both poorly designed and not particularly well made.


----------



## marinyork (26 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> It's important to understand that PCR and antibody tests are not equivalent.
> 
> The antibody kits are looking for antibodies that are produced by the immune system a few days after infection. That means someone can be infected, yet test negative. In fact, they'll almost certainly test negative in the important first few days where they're asymptomatic but can still infect others. It is however, very useful in identifying which people have been exposed to the virus (and are now hopefully resistant).
> 
> The PCR test is sensitive to virtal RNA. It can't identify whether or not someone has been exposed to the virus. It will unambiguously identify where someone has an active infection. It can tell you who should - must - be quarantined. Hence your suggestion that someone who tests positve with the antibosy test should be isolated until the PCR test comes back clear. Unfortunately this isn't enough - this will miss those in the early stages.



The tests aren't equivalent (there was a very obvious hint in there you missed that alluded to them not being the same) and this has been said farther back in the thread. Ideally as you say they should be isolated and tested under both regimes (this is not a real world consideration any longer and hasn't been for some time- maybe in the winter or summer). This has massive advantages as it means less waiting. Or only PCR testing on those that test positive on antibodies or other suspicion from medical evidence. However, the shortage of tests means even PHE seem to have been talking along using the antibody test. Witty and Valance basically said there's a worldwide shortage of PCR materials and we're screwed. France, Ireland and many other countries have all been making ridiculous promises about bumping up PCR whilst at the same time screaming about shortages.

The antibody test the UK's believed to be looking into doesn't work the first three days of infection. Originally it seems the UK believed that it was much longer than 3 days it didn't work and it's changed its mind and that's why it's buying them and being tested in Oxford. One aspect the UK and other governments didn't like probably because it would lead to criticism was some of the other claims of antibody tests.

As said farther back there are other sorts of tests discussed less in the UK or variants on the PCR, the mobile qPCR. This has been discussed less in recent days, quite possibly because of shortages this renders this fantastic piece of tech completely and utterly useless as it can't be used.

There's basically not enough PCR and loads of hospital staff are going to be seriously hospitalised and running close to dying because of it. There are many other ways of trying to protect the staff such as PPE or people staying at home, but it's not great not being able to have that to help.

Vallance was saying yesterday about tracking the spread and is keen on using antibody tests to see where it's been, how many patients have been asymptomatic and working out the proportion. I know they want very nice peer reviewed papers and to be as accurate as possible, but I feel it's a mistake waiting till it's perfect in their eyes. There are already a lot of false positives and false negatives under medical diagnosis as the scientific debate seems to be whether 50% of patients show no symptoms of whether that's even higher at 80%.

Anyway I said yesterday that I wasn't going to read any more on PCR as it's winding me up how incompetent the western world are, so not only are my posts going to get shorter on the matter that annoy people and lead to misunderstandings like yourself, but I'm not going to post them at all.

At the very least the antibody test may give some certainty and keep some people without the virus out of hospital and milder cases out of hospital and so on and so forth as discussed the last few days when PHE finally became interested in them seriously.


----------



## marinyork (26 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Just out:
> 
> "As of 9am on 25 March 2020, a total of 97,019 people have been tested, of which 87,490 were confirmed negative and 9,529 were confirmed positive. 463 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died."



It was said twice yesterday that we would get up to 25,000 a day, but that it'd be four weeks until that happened. France, Ireland and various other countries also made similar hollow promises.


----------



## marinyork (26 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Morrisons paying lip service to the 2m restriction and some of Joe Public simply have not got a clue.



The things you quote are everyday occurrences in supermarkets which I know you worked in retail, but just must have been way too high up to realise this. It will take time to reduce them, but they will reduce. It's a lot better than the Italian system where large crowds were huddled together outside supermarkets in the days after it was brought in. The photos of orderly queues around blocks in Italy are not true to life, they came in a long time after the restrictions. We're doing all right. Keep at it.

One of the difficulties is there won't be time for people to faff around like before spending 2 or 3 minutes pondering over product x or whatever. The selfish person is the one that doesn't grab and go under the new regime. I saw this myself in a supermarket where someone approached to grab and the other person got angry, but it was the person blocking's fault as much as the person grabbing. Of course the arse perusing wouldn't listen to the other two people.


----------



## Mike_P (26 Mar 2020)

Just been to Sainsbury's, 2m marking on floors but the aisles are that wide at most and people going both ways. Staff stood around as if immune including two at the entrance 2m apart but where are you supposed to go Used hand scanner and own bag but no obvious facility to clean the scanner or the pay touchscreen.


----------



## Smudge (26 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Dyson have been ordered to make 10,000 ventilators surley they could find a company that doesn't charge 4x more for their products than everyone else  he'll be crowing about his special futuristic bellows that he will be convinced is the future..
> 
> I should visit the " companies you won't use after" thread



He already got his rip off priced fans into hospitals and other care establishments.
I wont use Dyson after, but i never bought their ludicrously overpriced products before either.


----------



## Mike_P (26 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> He already got his rip off priced fans into hospitals and other care establishments.
> I wont use Dyson after, but i never bought their ludicrously overpriced products before either.


 One of the few who actually have manufacturing facilities here though.


----------



## marinyork (26 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Just been to Sainsbury's, 2m marking on floors but the aisles are that wide at most and people going both ways. Staff stood around as if immune including two at the entrance 2m apart but where are you supposed to go Used hand scanner and own bag but no obvious facility to clean the scanner or the pay touchscreen.



You could always get a job in a supermarket yourself and prove you do a better job of it...


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Mar 2020)

Aye, I'm sure we'll all be paying attention when we're on a hospital bed struggling to breathe "No Dr, I don't want *that* ventilator, can I have a different one please?"


----------



## Smudge (26 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> One of the few who actually have manufacturing facilities here though.



Thought he moved production to Asia. Plus his HQ as well.


----------



## Mike_P (26 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> You could always get a job in a supermarket yourself and prove you do a better job of it...


Just asking for a bit of common sense in the circumstances, the 2m separation is in all directions not just the person you are following.


----------



## Mike_P (26 Mar 2020)

Smudge said:


> Thought he moved production to Asia. Plus his HQ as well.


Flip.


----------



## MarkF (26 Mar 2020)

It's not possible for NHS staff to work 2m apart from their colleagues, never mind patients. But the last 2 days I've arrived at noon and found every duty room rammed (because the hospital is so quiet) with doctors, nurses, radiologists and porters cheek by jowl on their phones. In my changing room my workmate was talking to me whilst I was getting changed and I actually felt spittle on my arm, I said _"Andy FFS, personal space please" _he replied_ "But we are mates"_. 

The hospital is well prepared for a ramp up of arrivals, it won't be overwhelmed, only the ICU remains a potential problem. The care home arrivals are still bothering me though, they seem certain to increase and they won't be going to ICU.


----------



## Smudge (26 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Flip.



Still charges made in uk prices though...... and this is the man that supported Brexit.


----------



## Rocky (26 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Aye, I'm sure we'll all be paying attention when we're on a hospital bed struggling to breathe "No Dr, I don't want *that* ventilator, can I have a different one please?"


I think if it’s not up to the standard of those ventilators produced by specialist companies we won’t be capable of ever saying anything again. It’s the quality I’m worried about....


----------



## Duffy (26 Mar 2020)

Skibird said:


> I have already said, who are you to judge when someone has to work out how they are going to put food on the table for their family???? And again, nothing is black and white, every situation is different. If I was a builder, I would not want to go to one of the construction sites we have been seeing, however, 1 person repairing/building/maintaining something while following PHE guidelines is a totally different situation.



I’m genuinely not blind to the dire situation of the self employed and I can understand your point of view entirely.

However, a builder, with the best will in the world, could well be infectious and asymptomatic. If he’s coming and going from peoples houses, possibly the elderly/infirm/with underlying health conditions, how can he genuinely guarantee that he won’t leave something behind???

A paper mask isn’t going to hack it


----------



## tom73 (26 Mar 2020)

If dyson or any company can both come up with the engineering , manufacturing skills to make them. 
They prove to work and are effective That's got to be the focus no health care system has a massive stock pile of ventilators laying about it's just not practical. We may well in normal day to day health care not have enough but equally most people in hospital don't need one. 
We have to be thankful that we still have high quality engineering left here in the Uk let's face it no government for decades has really bothered much about it.


----------



## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> I hope they're better quality than his vacuum cleaners, which are both poorly designed and not particularly well made.


I hope they're better than his hand dryers, which are too short for me hands and dribble all over the floor which then gets walked all over the nearby floor. Was it beyond him to design a hole long enough for 99.9% of hands and install a drip collector and drain or evaporation trap?


----------



## Johnno260 (26 Mar 2020)

I would say if they can make them here and they’re reliable then who cares about the brand, don’t use Shark though that thing tore the carpet off my stairs haha

also as someone else said Dyson has a plant here, better than getting made abroad and the local government decided we need those machines more then the place that’s importing them.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Mar 2020)

.


tom73 said:


> no health care system has a massive stock pile of ventilators laying about it's just not practical.



This is exactly what a recent exercise looking at the potential impact of a flu pandemic did recommend. It was not acted upon. Why is it not practical? We have strategic stocks of other things.


----------



## MarkF (26 Mar 2020)

As an aside...........opened last year Bradford's ICU is one of the newest in the country, it's a superb and spacious unit with isolation rooms for every patient. In all the expert years of planning just 20 beds was deemed sufficient.


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## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> also as someone else said Dyson has a plant here, better than getting made abroad and the local government decided we need those machines more then the place that’s importing them.


Does he still have anything more than a design office and prototyping here? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/2282809.stm


----------



## tom73 (26 Mar 2020)

Local tesco express even more into this added more measures. Extra signs up all over ,limiting people inside if they need.
Extra tape on the shop floor now inc self-service. 
Also proving cleaning stuff if you want to wipe your trolley or basket handles. 

I agree with others if you see people not getting this whole thing. Say something people have had enough time to change.
For me as of yesterday I want accept it anymore we can't fix this if only a few play the game. 
From today police now have powers so once a few £40 fines start flying around or they start getting held for 48 hours for testing. 
It should get the message across.


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## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

According to reports, the Dyson ventilators will be made in Wiltshire in a disused hangar and will be subject to stringent medical device testing As any of the ones made by current manufacturers 

Perhaps let’s try to see the positives, eh?


----------



## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> 
> This is exactly what a recent exercise looking at the potential impact of a flu pandemic did recommend. It was not acted upon. Why is it not practical? We have strategic stocks of other things.


How recent?


----------



## nickyboy (26 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Does he still have anything more than a design office and prototyping here? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/2282809.stm


Doesn't matter. Air freight operating normally. Can be despatched from Malaysian factory and be in UK in 24 hours

Dyson is doing something and that should be recognised. There are a lot of companies and individuals who could help who are doing nothing. Target your ire at them


----------



## Unkraut (26 Mar 2020)

Latest figures here including increase from yesterday, average per 100 000 and number of deaths:


Total (tested)36.508+4.95444198 

There's a briefing later, but doesn't seem like the curve is flattening yet. Still early days.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> How recent?





vickster said:


> How recent?



2016.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...s-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic


----------



## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Doesn't matter. Air freight operating normally. Can be despatched from Malaysian factory and be in UK in 24 hours


I was responding to claims above. I agree it's not insurmountable, but let's not pretend he is a big British manufacturer who gave a toss about UK workers, unlike some I know who have been making medical kit in their UK factories, working shifts around the clock, complying with guidelines but still workers risking their lives more being out, during this whole time without diverting staff to seek publicity.



> Dyson is doing something and that should be recognised. There are a lot of companies and individuals who could help who are doing nothing. Target your ire at them


Plenty of ire to spare, but Dyson ain't the messiah, you know!


----------



## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Latest figures here


would you mind editing your post to expand here, for benefit of new readers on mobiles who overlook your name, please?


----------



## PK99 (26 Mar 2020)

I despair at Journalistic spin and expect better of the Telegraph:

*Covid symptom tracker app suggests 6.5m people in UK may already have coronavirus*

_Within the first 24 hours, some 650,000 people had signed up – and an initial analysis revealed that 10 per cent of them showed symptoms of the virus. 

If extrapolated to the whole country, it could mean that around 6.5 million people currently have coronavirus, the first time an estimate based on real-time data has been attempted. 

_
FFS this is not a random sample it is a self selected group most likely weighted toward those with symptoms and wanting to report them.

Simple extrapolation to full population is plain stupid


----------



## nickyboy (26 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> I was responding to claims above. I agree it's not insurmountable, but let's not pretend he is a big British manufacturer who gave a toss about UK workers, unlike some I know who have been making medical kit in their UK factories, working shifts around the clock, complying with guidelines but still workers risking their lives more being out, during this whole time without diverting staff to seek publicity.
> 
> 
> Plenty of ire to spare, but Dyson ain't the messiah, you know!


I do find it rather unedifying that, at the moment, people are using this as an opportunity to raise long held issues with particular companies. Particularly as this one is a company actually doing something to try to help get us out of this crisis.

As I said, there are loads of companies that could do a lot more than they are doing. They just choose not to. They are far more deserving of criticism than Dyson


----------



## Unkraut (26 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> would you mind editing your post to expand here, for benefit of new readers on mobiles who overlook your name, please?


No problem, in sentence form total number of tested cases in Germany is 36,508. This is an increase of 4954 since yesterdays figures, the infection rate is 44 per 100 000 of the population and 198 people have died.

(Quicker than trying to mess around with a copy and pasted column!)


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> I despair at Journalistic spin and expect better of the Telegraph:
> 
> *Covid symptom tracker app suggests 6.5m people in UK may already have coronavirus*
> 
> ...



Well quite. 

Though why you expect better of a paper that published Johnson and Booker for years is a mystery.


----------



## Poacher (26 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> I despair at Journalistic spin and expect better of the Telegraph:


The once respectable (even though incorrigibly right wing) journalistic standards of the Telegraph have been in decline for years.


----------



## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> FFS this is not a random sample it is a self selected group most likely weighted toward those with symptoms and wanting to report them.


...and are gullible enough to hand total control of their phone to some ltd co.


----------



## Adam4868 (26 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Latest figures here including increase from yesterday, average per 100 000 and number of deaths:
> 
> 
> Total (tested)36.508+4.95444198
> ...


If this is correct what I was reading,seems like they are doing something right.
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/8205...lower-than-in-other-countries?t=1585221728686


----------



## Skibird (26 Mar 2020)

Duffy said:


> I’m genuinely not blind to the dire situation of the self employed and I can understand your point of view entirely.
> 
> However, a builder, with the best will in the world, could well be infectious and asymptomatic. If he’s coming and going from peoples houses, possibly the elderly/infirm/with underlying health conditions, how can he genuinely guarantee that he won’t leave something behind???
> 
> A paper mask isn’t going to hack it


 As I said, every situation is different, which is why I will not judge anyone and neither should you or anyone else as you can't possibly know the circumstances (It's not just about finance). You would like to assume, that if it was not essential to some degree, the customer would not want the work to go ahead anyway but "IF" it can be done by adhering to the rules, then it is the builder/plumber etc and the customers decision. There are just too many different scenarios to make judgements, and which why, at present, hardware stores are still open.


----------



## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

News from France: surveys show people agree with the lockdown, but feel it should have been done earlier. Confidence in the government was described in voice-over as "in free-fall" ( « chute libre » ).


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (26 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> News from France: surveys show people agree with the lockdown, but feel it should have been done earlier. Confidence in the government was described in voice-over as "in free-fall" ( « chute libre » ).


I'd expect a UK poll to give broadly similar results. Well, without the chute libre, of course. My faith in the good sense of the UK electorate has been badly shaken.


----------



## Archie_tect (26 Mar 2020)

The 'good sense of the UK electorate'... nope, don't think that has ever existed.


----------



## Wobblers (26 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> The fatality of 41 is surprisingly low. I suspect it is incomplete or something, and will probably catch up tomorrow.



I've been looking at the data, and it's showing something interesting. I've had to rely on using the number of deaths to track the epidemic, because I don't believe the testing in any European country is sufficiently reliable to give meaningful results. One issue with doing this is that deaths have a 2-3 week delay from infections, so this tells us what was happening two or more weeks ago. 

First, let's compare what's happening in Italy, France and the UK for the data as of 25th March:






I've used the scientist's favourite - the log plot as it shows very clearly if the epidemic is increasing exponentially or not. A straight line means the epidemic is still growing rapidly. On the other hand, if the line curves to the right, the epidemic is slowing down. The data is plotted from the time that ten deaths were reported - this removes the noise present in the early stages so that the trends can be more clearly seen.

For the first two weeks, Italy showed a growth rate of 20% (doubling every 3.5 days). This has slowed to around 5%
(doubling every 2 weeks). It looks like Italy is turning the corner, at last: the growth is no longer exponential. I take marinyork's point that many deaths are likely not being recorded. There's no real way to account for that: the data is what we've got. I suspect that under reporting can't account for slow down, so the trend is likely genuine.

France looks grim. The number of deaths is doubling every three days - and there's no sign of this growth rate slackening off. I fear that France will turn out worse than Italy: if France continues on this trajectory, it'll overtake Italy in about a week.

The UK is just odd. A few days ago, I predicted that there would be over 1000 deaths by this weekend. I'm happy to say that I was wrong - it's going to be much less (and sad that I wasn't _more_ wrong). 

There are two ways I can explain this. The first is that there was a major change in behaviour at the start of the month. This was when people were being exhorted into washing their hands and paying careful attention to hygiene. Could these measures actually be working to reduce the number of transmissions? That would imply that the hand-oral route is the major infection route rather than aerosol.

The other explanation is that the case fatality rate has dropped. This most likely would be due to improved treatment protocols, so that the critically ill are more likely to survive. This is something I've no knowledge about - @Brompton Bruce, would the prof be able to shed some light on this? 

The frustrating thing is that without a robust testing strategy in the community, we have no idea which is the more likely explanation. This lack of testing means we're essentially blind: it will take a long time before anything we do to reduce R0 will show up in the data (that's probably the reason behind BoJo saying that the restrictions will be reviewed in three weeks, as that's just about the time in which changes can be expected to show up). 

There is one other sting in the tail: if the favourable decrease of death growth rate is down to improved treatment, this will rapidly unwind if the NHS becomes overwhelmed. A sharp increase could be expected at that point.


----------



## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Major change of policy in spain, 650 000 test kits sent out.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sting-kits-as-coronavirus-deaths-rise-steeply


Reportedly they don't work:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1243134029928554496


Spain can't buy any luck right now, can it?


----------



## marinyork (26 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Reportedly they don't work:
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1243134029928554496
> 
> ...




Interesting. As what I had read was they got tests from about 15 different countries and not just China. Including the UK.

Very unlucky but spain had no choice. A gamble they had to take.


----------



## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> There are two ways I can explain this. The first is that there was a major change in behaviour at the start of the month. This was when people were being exhorted into washing their hands and paying careful attention to hygiene. Could these measures actually be working to reduce the number of transmissions? That would imply that the hand-oral route is the major infection route rather than aerosol.


BBC's 2018 documentary "Contagion!" modelling showed the likely effect of hand-washing on a hand-transmitted pandemic. Because it was repeated recently, it's available to watch for 17 days more at https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p059y0p1 - in case your life doesn't yet have enough pandemic in it.


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## MarkF (26 Mar 2020)

We had a pallet of Krispy Kreme stuff delivered yesterday, enough for a doughnut or two for everybody. The pallet was stripped by a few NHS staff carrying a much as they could.

Today Matalan delivered a pallet of pop, to me, that's take one if you thirsty. Nope, a few staff emptied it carrying as many outers (12 cans) as they could in just a few minutes.

Panic shoppers? Pfft!


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## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Interesting. As what I had read was they got tests from about 15 different countries and not just China. [...]


Other reports welcome. My Spanish is shaky and I've shared the above without asking my usual expert who is rather overworked at the moment and machine-translation sometimes stuffs up.


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## roubaixtuesday (26 Mar 2020)

.


McWobble said:


> I've been looking at the data, and it's showing something interesting. I've had to rely on using the number of deaths to track the epidemic, because I don't believe the testing in any European country is sufficiently reliable to give meaningful results. One issue with doing this is that deaths have a 2-3 week delay from infections, so this tells us what was happening two or more weeks ago.
> 
> First, let's compare what's happening in Italy, France and the UK for the data as of 25th March:
> 
> ...



Interesting. And somewhat hopeful. 

There was a piece on newsnight about how yesterday's low death rate was down to a change in reporting. But the decline in rate constant looks to have been over a longer time.


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## marinyork (26 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Interesting. And somewhat hopeful.
> 
> There was a piece on newsnight about how yesterday's low death rate was down to a change in reporting. But the decline in rate constant looks to have been over a longer time.



Lombardia have actually had lockdowns for a long long time now.

The issue is Piemonte and where are the numbers going in the south. Numbers there are generally rising, but not by much. Liguria the scary numbers for a couple of days may be levelling off.


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## Rocky (26 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> The other explanation is that the case fatality rate has dropped. This most likely would be due to improved treatment protocols, so that the critically ill are more likely to survive. This is something I've no knowledge about - @Brompton Bruce, would the prof be able to shed some light on this?


Interesting point......I think that earlier diagnosis of the people who are likely to need hospital admission may be one reason. There has been a huge rush in the development of diagnostic/treatment algorithms based on rapid reviews of the evidence coming out of China, Spain and Italy. The prof says she’s never seen such a level of cooperation between academics from different countries. She has been working on guidelines for remote consultations for GPs and is now turning her hand (and that of her team) to primary care treatment protocols. The idea is to keep as many patients away from hospitals as possible. One issue that she’s picking up is that almost every CCG (overseeing GPs in an area) has developed its own set of guidance. Some recommend automatic prescription of antibiotics and some don’t. The evidence supports the latter (as it is thought there’s a real danger of patients developing antibiotic resistance). But it will be really difficult to introduce one evidence based protocol across all general practice.


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## roubaixtuesday (26 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Lombardia have actually had lockdowns for a long long time now.
> 
> The issue is Piemonte and where are the numbers going in the south. Numbers there are generally rising, but not by much. Liguria the scary numbers for a couple of days may be levelling off.



We're at cross purposes. The Newsnight piece was about UK numbers yesterday


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## tom73 (26 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Interesting point......I think that earlier diagnosis of the people who are likely to need hospital admission may be one reason. There has been a huge rush in the development of diagnostic/treatment algorithms based on rapid reviews of the evidence coming out of China, Spain and Italy. The prof says she’s never seen such a level of cooperation between academics from different countries. She has been working on guidelines for remote consultations for GPs and is now turning her hand (and that of her team) to primary care treatment protocols. The idea is to keep as many patients away from hospitals as possible. One issue that she’s picking up is that almost every CCG (overseeing GPs in an area) has developed its own set of guidance. Some recommend automatic prescription of antibiotics and some don’t. The evidence supports the latter (as it is thought there’s a real danger of patients developing antibiotic resistance). But it will be really difficult to introduce one evidence based protocol across all general practice.



Not the only area that after all this will need a rethink. Much of the local knows best for local need has made a right patchwork. 
Not helped by national guidelines lacking much teeth added to the mix making it even more disjoined.


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## marinyork (26 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> We're at cross purposes. The Newsnight piece was about UK numbers yesterday



That's somewhat not-that-bad-news then.


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## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'd expect a UK poll to give broadly similar results. Well, without the chute libre, of course. My faith in the good sense of the UK electorate has been badly shaken.


Today's Swiss (RTS) news gave more detail: Macron has sent the army in to help hospitals and police, plus announced a major healthcare investment plan.

RTS led with international news (which is why I started listening to it before all this): Has Charles infected the Queen? Did Prince Albert of Monaco infect him despite him trying to remember to "Indian salute" rather than shake hands? Worries that c19 is running wild in the migrant camps in Greece.

Meanwhile, the previously-mentioned Geneva waiving of the "actively seeking work" requirement for unemployment benefit has gone nationwide. Swiss pharmacies are "crumbling" under a surge in requests for delivery - pharmacy students have been mobilised but it's not enough - it sounds like deliveries involve extra checks and admin. No mention of the current stats for Switzerland today, which seemed a bit odd.


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## deptfordmarmoset (26 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Today's Swiss (RTS) news gave more detail: Macron has sent the army in to help hospitals and police, plus announced a major healthcare investment plan.
> 
> RTS led with international news (which is why I started listening to it before all this): Has Charles infected the Queen? Did Prince Albert of Monaco infect him despite him trying to remember to "Indian salute" rather than shake hands? Worries that c19 is running wild in the migrant camps in Greece.
> 
> Meanwhile, the previously-mentioned Geneva waiving of the "actively seeking work" requirement for unemployment benefit has gone nationwide. Swiss pharmacies are "crumbling" under a surge in requests for delivery - pharmacy students have been mobilised but it's not enough - it sounds like deliveries involve extra checks and admin. No mention of the current stats for Switzerland today, which seemed a bit odd.


Swiss figures here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/


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## Unkraut (26 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Other reports welcome.


The major press briefing I watched this morning said 'pregnancy test' type kits for the virus are not yet reliable enough. The margin of error is too great for them to be useful. They didn't specifically mention Spain though.

They seemed unable not to take a poke at Trump's America, with its lack of comprehensive healthcare, and apparently if you want/need a test there you have to pay for it. Presumably the very poor won't bother.


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## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Swiss figures here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/


So maybe they were omitted to avoid giving a false sense of relief and resulting in more lockdown-breaking?


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## flake99please (26 Mar 2020)

I delayed my tea break by half an hour today so that maximum distance could be kept between myself and other work colleagues in the room.

I ended up being the only person in there, until someone else entered 3 minutes later and sat beside me. I left the room cursing under my breath. Selfish bar steward.


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## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> close to 9 am?


Now online for download at More or Less: Behind the Stats: Coronavirus Special http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p087n42r


A 28 minute programme is rather more than the 3 minute Today item I was expecting. Does anyone still want a full transcript?


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## tom73 (26 Mar 2020)

The Nurse who because of selfish panic buyers was bought to tears making people sit up and notice. 
Has now self-isolating after developing coronavirus symptoms. 
Get well soon Dawn.


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## Racing roadkill (26 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> The Nurse who because of selfish panic buyers was bought to tears making people sit up and notice.
> Has now self-isolating after developing coronavirus symptoms.
> Get well soon Dawn.


Has she been tested? Do we know it’s actually CV-19? No we don’t, nor does she. I’d be wary of jumping to too many conclusions just yet.


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## Racing roadkill (26 Mar 2020)

Yesterday’s figures seemed to indicate that there was hope that the virus’ effects are starting to level out. I imagine the idiotic behaviour from certain parts of London, witnessed in the past few days, will lead to a localised spike, and I think this needs to be taken into account, when making decisions about how the lockdown is working.


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## Jody (26 Mar 2020)

Almost about to hit 500,000 infections worldwide


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## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

Belgian (RTBF) news: a fall in the number of daily deaths (pictured), growing tension in the prisons under lockdown, worries that people aren't attending even the routine hospital appointments not cancelled and thereby risking their health, starts of estimates of the economic cost, a surge in direct farm sales (including the vending machines for everything from dairy to fruit that I've only seen in Belgium and northern France - pictured), wondering what today's EU virtual summit will do, successful tests of ventilator prototypes (pictured is one from UC Louvain which seems to be mostly machine-cut from plastic sheets and then it basically operates a manual ventilator) and sobering news from Italy with bulk blessing of 113 cremation urns in Bergamo (pictured) and Austria where people under lockdown view and speak at their loved ones' funerals through tablet computers.


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## deptfordmarmoset (26 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> So maybe they were omitted to avoid giving a false sense of relief and resulting in more lockdown-breaking?


I'd be surprised if CH was doing a lot of lockdown breaking: they've mobilised the army, which is a conscription service. A sort of people's army, I suppose.


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## carlosfandangus (26 Mar 2020)

Just picked up a message from my daughter in Grand Caymen, the government sent all mobile users a message, they have a 3 day curfew in place from 7 PM on the 25th march to 5 AM on the 28th


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## tom73 (26 Mar 2020)

DPP now made it clear anyone coughing deliberately at someone during this outbreak. 
They will be charged and prosecuted. Two who tried it on with police have already been before the courts. 
One is now serving a prison sentence he maybe thinking it was really bad idea. Prison is not a great place to be at the moment. 2 prisoners have died already.


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## Rocky (26 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Has she been tested? Do we know it’s actually CV-19? No we don’t, nor does she. I’d be wary of jumping to too many conclusions just yet.


She has corona virus symptoms.......fever, cough, sore throat and headache. That is not a great combination to have. Self-isolation is also not a bundle of fun. So she may not actually have the virus but she is obviously not well.


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## Joey Shabadoo (26 Mar 2020)

Looks like the self-employed are getting the predicted deal of 80% of average earnings over the last three years.


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## Tail End Charlie (26 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> DPP now made it clear anyone coughing deliberately at someone during this outbreak.
> They will be charged and prosecuted. Two who tried it on with police have already been before the courts.
> One is now serving a prison sentence he maybe thinking it was really bad idea. Prison is not a great place to be at the moment. 2 prisoners have died already.


Heard an interview with some Chief Constable yesterday I think where he was asked what his officers should do if someone coughs over them. Instead of the bland "I would expect them to take appropriate action" I really was willing him to suggest swift summary justice should be applied.


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## Racing roadkill (26 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> She has corona virus symptoms.......fever, cough, sore throat and headache. That is not a great combination to have. Self-isolation is also not a bundle of fun. So she may not actually have the virus but she is obviously not well.


I’m not arguing that she’s not well, Its more that she comes across ( to me anyway ) as a bit of an attention seeker. Until such times as she confirms that it is actually CV-19, I take anything she, or those like her ( apparent attention seekers who bleat about stuff on video and post it to <insert social media channel> when the other <insert huge numbers> of people going through the same ( or worse ) ordeal choose not to do so) with a large pinch of salt. I don’t know whether that is an apt description, as I don’t know her personally, but that’s how she’s coming across to me.


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## Rocky (26 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> I’m not arguing that she’s not well, Its more that she comes across ( to me anyway ) as a bit of an attention seeker. Until such times as she confirms that it is actually CV-19, I take anything she, or those like her ( apparent attention seekers who bleat about stuff on video and post it to <insert social media channel> when the other <insert huge numbers> of people going through the same ( or worse ) ordeal choose not to do so) with a large pinch of salt. I don’t know whether that is an apt description, as I don’t know her personally, but that’s how she’s coming across to me.


It sound like you dislike her because she posted a video saying she couldn’t get any food for her family after coming off a 48hr shift looking after sick people. Anyone in the frontline of healthcare at the moment should be admired and thanked. We owe a huge debt to these people given the risks they are taking for us.


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## Pale Rider (26 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It sound like you dislike her because she posted a video saying she couldn’t get any food for her family after coming off a 48hr shift looking after sick people. Anyone in the frontline of healthcare at the moment should be admired and thanked. We owe a huge debt to these people given the risks they are taking for us.



Looked to me as if the video was posted from the driving seat of her car after she had just left the shop.

She was already tired and over wrought from a long and tough shift, even by her standards as an experienced nurse.

The sight of the empty shelves pushed her over the edge.

Viewed in that light, it's not fair or reasonable to brand her an attention seeker.


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## tom73 (26 Mar 2020)

Attention seeker yes bet when she went back to work the day after she was handing out autographs. In between trying to keep people alive with more waiting at the door.


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## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

RR doesn’t use the NHS and has shown clear scorn for it before. Hopefully he won’t get Covid and need its facilities and workforce


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## PK99 (26 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> I’m not arguing that she’s not well, Its more that she comes across ( to me anyway ) as a bit of an attention seeker. Until such times as she confirms that it is actually CV-19, I take anything she, or those like her ( apparent attention seekers who bleat about stuff on video and post it to <insert social media channel> when the other <insert huge numbers> of people going through the same ( or worse ) ordeal choose not to do so) with a large pinch of salt. I don’t know whether that is an apt description, as I don’t know her personally, but that’s how she’s coming across to me.



You cynical barsteward.

She comes a cross to me as an emotionally drained emergency worker doing her high risk damnedest to keep people alive.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (26 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> So now Charles has caught it, is displaying mild symptoms "but otherwise remains in good health".



It's a puzzle how he caught it because he was well aware of the risks of shaking hands a couple of weeks ago...

(Sound on, some swearing 😂)


View: https://twitter.com/AlanClarkeVideo/status/1238441002731520000?s=19


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## Accy cyclist (26 Mar 2020)

Think of the shop/store workers the next time you're in their place of work! They may not be at the front of the 'frontline' like doctors and nurses,but they are still in serious danger of contracting this virus! I spoke to the former Mrs Accy today. She works at the Blackburn Asda store on the customer service desk. She gets her share of nasty disgusting types at the best of times(some twatty customer nicked her bottle of hand-gel off her desk the other day),so obviously their numbers have risen due to this virus. She's been coughed on,man handled,swore at etc. She told me the place has been packed out,due to supermarkets being the only places open. She said they have security on the door,letting 10 in when 10 leave. No doubt the supermarkets profits have risen greatly during this pandemic. Will they share some of this profit with their shop floor workers? No fecking chance,i bet!!


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## tom73 (26 Mar 2020)

After last weekends mass outings North Yorkshire Police now out in force using road blocks checking essential travel.
In the mean time out in the peaks ..... 

View: https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241?s=20


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## Pale Rider (26 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> You cynical barsteward.
> 
> She comes a cross to me as an emotionally drained emergency worker doing her high risk damnedest to keep people alive.



I don't know if she is a good nurse or not, but she's a bloody clever media operator.

There are professional campaigners who work at their cause for months and cannot get a fraction of the traction she achieved in a couple of minutes.


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## marinyork (26 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> I’m not arguing that she’s not well, Its more that she comes across ( to me anyway ) as a bit of an attention seeker.



Be cynical about other people.

Plenty of the them out there. Take your pick.


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## deptfordmarmoset (26 Mar 2020)

115 UK deaths today. I was afraid of that yesterday.


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## flake99please (26 Mar 2020)

12% of total workforce in self isolation where I am. Massive pressure on those still here.


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## RecordAceFromNew (26 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> *Yesterday’s figures seemed to indicate that there was hope that the virus’ effects are starting to level out.* I imagine the idiotic behaviour from certain parts of London, witnessed in the past few days, will lead to a localised spike, and I think this needs to be taken into account, when making decisions about how the lockdown is working.



Unfortunately, as expected, that's not the case. The change of behaviour is far too recent for that to be the case, and not to mention the London Underground is still crowded, e.g.

Figures out just now:
"As of 9am on 26 March 2020, a total of 104,866 people have been tested, of which 93,208 were confirmed negative and 11,658 were confirmed positive.
As of 5pm on 25 March 2020, 578 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died."

Compared to the corresponding report at the same site last night:
"As of 9am on 25 March 2020, a total of 97,019 people have been tested, of which 87,490 were confirmed negative and 9,529 were confirmed positive. 463 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died."

It is not entirely certain what time the 463 figure corresponds to, but the fatality yesterday was at least 115.

2129 were identified to be infected in one single day, which is 27% of 7847 tested.

I think it is inevitable the fatality figure will exceed 100 and increase daily from now for a while. I hope, but can not expect significant leveling off soon based on what we can see from Italy and Spain.

This is all the result of leaving it far too late. Remember the "Wash your hands, but otherwise go about your normal daily business as usual" recommendation not so long ago?


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## marinyork (26 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> After last weekends mass outings North Yorkshire Police now out in force using road blocks checking essential travel.
> In the mean time out in the peaks .....
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241?s=20




To be fair to the police, the drink driving and speeding is horrendous in North Yorkshire. They are probably also motivated from that point of view a well. They'll be people driving to their mates houses in other north yorkshire villages getting blind drunk and driving back.


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## Starchivore (26 Mar 2020)

Just announced by the chancellor that the self-employed will also receive the 80% of income from the government, if not able to work, although they will have to wait until June to get the money. Based on last 3 months of tax returns


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## kingrollo (26 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> 115 UK deaths today. I was afraid of that yesterday.



Yes - yesterdays 40 did seem a bit odd - I wonder if some didn't get counted on time on Wednesday - Either way I think we all know the death toll will get higher before it starts to fall.

Anyone got todays stats from Italy ?


----------



## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

Starchivore said:


> Just announced by the chancellor that the self-employed will also receive the 80% of income from the government, if not able to work, although they will have to wait until June to get the money. Based on last 3 months of tax returns


Years not months


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## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yes - yesterdays 40 did seem a bit odd - I wonder if some didn't get counted on time on Wednesday - Either way I think we all know the death toll will get higher before it starts to fall.
> 
> Anyone got todays stats from Italy ?


You can see published figures from every country here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


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## RecordAceFromNew (26 Mar 2020)

*Brazilian gangsters impose curfew as President Bolsonaro calls coronavirus a ‘little flu’*

At least someone powerful has a clue in Brazil...


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## Adam4868 (26 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> After last weekends mass outings North Yorkshire Police now out in force using road blocks checking essential travel.
> In the mean time out in the peaks .....
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241?s=20



Looks like social distancing to me...bit of a waste of police time there I think.I live near a busy road.Ill pass more people walking to the shops than I would driving a couple of miles to the countryside for a walk.


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## deptfordmarmoset (26 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yes - yesterdays 40 did seem a bit odd - I wonder if some didn't get counted on time on Wednesday - Either way I think we all know the death toll will get higher before it starts to fall.
> 
> Anyone got todays stats from Italy ?



*6203 new cases* and *712 new deaths* in *Italy*. Worldometer has contacted Piedmont officials directly and received confirmation that the number of deaths in the region is 499, 50 more than reported in the Protezione Civile's bulletin today, We have checked the totals by region and can confirm that the* total number of deaths in Italy as of today is 8,215 rather than 8,165 *incorrectly reported by Protezione Civile. Accordingly, the* total number of cases changes from 80,539 to 80,589*. [source]


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## marinyork (26 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yes - yesterdays 40 did seem a bit odd - I wonder if some didn't get counted on time on Wednesday - Either way I think we all know the death toll will get higher before it starts to fall.
> 
> Anyone got todays stats from Italy ?



712

A few regions appear on the last 5-6 days of data to be levelling off/maybe on the way down (we can see this now, couldn't really say it 5-6 days ago).

The headline figure mostly fluctuates on a day to day basis based on two regions where it does vary quite a lot.

This figure has been creeping a bit south in the last two days since it was posted though


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## kingrollo (26 Mar 2020)

Supermarkets by me are almost back to normal - Mrs KR went today and was able to get loo rolls and everything.


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## kingrollo (26 Mar 2020)

Its sort of sobering how quickly it becomes the norm - I remember when italy hit 100 deaths in day - everyone was like WTF !!!!! - now the uk has 115 - its not even the leading news story 

Going to be a grim few weeks !


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## Buck (26 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> If dyson or any company can both come up with the engineering , manufacturing skills to make them.
> They prove to work and are effective That's got to be the focus no health care system has a massive stock pile of ventilators laying about it's just not practical. We may well in normal day to day health care not have enough but equally most people in hospital don't need one.
> We have to be thankful that we still have high quality engineering left here in the Uk let's face it no government for decades has really bothered much about it.



For me, I would ike it if the government puts a plan in place with companies to enable key equipment to be manufactured at short notice in future, whether that be ventilators, decontamination units etc. It's unrealistic for us to have these in stock "just ion case" as the servicing and maintenance would be prohibitive and they could become unsafe or out of date relatively quickly so an ability to switch manufacturing at speed would be welcome.


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## kingrollo (26 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> For me, I would ike it if the government puts a plan in place with companies to enable key equipment to be manufactured at short notice in future, whether that be ventilators, decontamination units etc. It's unrealistic for us to have these in stock "just ion case" as the servicing and maintenance would be prohibitive and they could become unsafe or out of date relatively quickly so an ability to switch manufacturing at speed would be welcome.



Agree - and I don't pretend to be in possession of the full facts - but wasn't it obvious mid Jan that this was going to be as bad as it is now getting ? - Had we acted then, would we be more prepared now ?


----------



## Buck (26 Mar 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Think of the shop/store workers the next time you're in their place of work! They may not be at the front of the 'frontline' like doctors and nurses,but they are still in serious danger of contracting this virus! I spoke to the former Mrs Accy today. She works at the Blackburn Asda store on the customer service desk. She gets her share of nasty disgusting types at the best of times(some twatty customer nicked her bottle of hand-gel off her desk the other day),so obviously their numbers have risen due to this virus. She's been coughed on,man handled,swore at etc. She told me the place has been packed out,due to supermarkets being the only places open. She said they have security on the door,letting 10 in when 10 leave. No doubt the supermarkets profits have risen greatly during this pandemic. Will they share some of this profit with their shop floor workers? No fecking chance,i bet!!



They may not show increased profits as many items will have been low margin and the costs they are incurring to recover stock levels may actually dent profits. Remember that with over a £billion of extra groceries in stock in people's houses this will not be additional spend but will show later when people are not shopping either through isolation or because they just need to eat it/use it !

Not sure about Asda but Tesco and Sainsbury's are giving everyone a 10% bonus this month as a thank you.


----------



## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> They may not show increased profits as many items will have been low margin and the costs they are incurring to recover stock levels may actually dent profits. Remember that with over a £billion of extra groceries in stock in people's houses this will not be additional spend but will show later when people are not shopping either through isolation or because they just need to eat it/use it !
> 
> Not sure about Asda but Tesco and Sainsbury's are giving everyone a 10% bonus this month as a thank you.


Asda are paying an extra weeks wages in June I believe

From an email received from CEO, 
There will be an extra week’s pay in June to our colleagues in recognition of their extra efforts to protect the health of their colleagues who needed to step away during this time


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## pawl (26 Mar 2020)

He probably will in front of his mirror with a vide camera.Then we can all see what an empathetic guy he is.


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## Buck (26 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Agree - and I don't pretend to be in possession of the full facts - but wasn't it obvious mid Jan that this was going to be as bad as it is now getting ? - Had we acted then, would we be more prepared now ?




Don't disagree. Sometimes we do appear to sit and wait for things to be OK whereas swift action can often win the day.


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## Mugshot (26 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> Not sure about Asda but Tesco and Sainsbury's are giving everyone a 10% bonus this month as a thank you.


I've read Aldi are too. Well deserved


----------



## marinyork (26 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Agree - and I don't pretend to be in possession of the full facts - but wasn't it obvious mid Jan that this was going to be as bad as it is now getting ? - Had we acted then, would we be more prepared now ?



Sadly many western governments had too much faith in being able to get in stuff for making PCR test kits. Too much faith in able to ramp up tests. It's just made life terribly difficult for them and in Spain and USA a large number of fatalities directly as a result.

Here is hoping they are organised for the wave in the winter on that front. Or the old antibody test kit conundrum.


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## PK99 (26 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Agree - and I don't pretend to be in possession of the full facts - but wasn't it obvious mid Jan that this was going to be as bad as it is now getting ? - Had we acted then, would we be more prepared now ?



I don't think it was, we went to cuba for 2 weeks mid Feb and there was no sense of impending doom then.

The InstaBuild new hospital was end of January into February.


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## nickyboy (26 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Agree - and I don't pretend to be in possession of the full facts - but wasn't it obvious mid Jan that this was going to be as bad as it is now getting ? - Had we acted then, would we be more prepared now ?


There was a feeling in January that CV-19 could be contained in China and surrounding areas in the same way that SARS was. It would then fizzle out and never arrive in the West other than an odd case. If you remember there were a couple of odd cases (York and Brighton?) but they never took hold with good contact tracing

What blindsided everyone was what happened in Norther Italy. They took their eye off the ball and, by the time they realised they had a problem, it was out of control. This was a disaster as there is huge traffic between Lombardy and other areas of Europe both for business and (at this time of the year), skiing holidays. By the time everyone knew what was going on there were lots of infected people in other European countries that had visited Lombardy. Then every country was playing catch up.

USA is different, it's like Italy. Direct infection from China and nobody knew what was going on until it was too late

For sure if we had acted in January we would have been better prepared but everyone (and that's governments, experts, financial markets...everyone) expected it to be contained in Asia and fizzle out


----------



## kingrollo (26 Mar 2020)

Hows things anyway @PK99


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (26 Mar 2020)

Good noisy NHS applause outside here this evening. Silly buggers couldn't wait till 8pm though and it's now already quiet again.


----------



## Edwardoka (26 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Agree - and I don't pretend to be in possession of the full facts - but wasn't it obvious mid Jan that this was going to be as bad as it is now getting ? - Had we acted then, would we be more prepared now ?


The scale didn't become clear until later than that. We vaguely knew that something bad was going down in an obscure part of China and it was apparently very bad, but hey they have weird animal diseases all the time and little ever seems to come of it.

It hadn't travelled far and containment measures seemed to be working.

Once it became clear to epidemiologists that it had reached Italy and containment had failed, we had an opportunity to get ahead of the curve. We do not have a porous border like mainland Europe does.

Had we acted decisively then we'd have a few hundred cases, with little local transmission and an ability to contain it without having to shutter the entire country.

Instead we let it spread unobserved for weeks. We have literally no idea how many people are infected. My friend has all the symptoms, he reckons he caught it in a fast food restaurant in Glasgow city centre - a place that was, before the shutdown, visited by thousands of people a day.

Edit: curses, ninja'd by @nickyboy
I swear I didn't know your post existed until after I finished and posted mine.


----------



## PK99 (26 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Hows things anyway @PK99




See posts over on How we doing thread.


----------



## marshmella (26 Mar 2020)

Good applause here..started a little early aswell


----------



## Unkraut (26 Mar 2020)

I've just been watching a couple of German girls taking apart conspiracy theories and fake news/misinformation. Extremely well done.

One example which I hadn't seen was an interview with an Italian doctor stating quite clearly that they hadn't had any deaths and that there was no virus. Turns out what he said was true - except the interview was in mid February. That was the case back then, but in a new interview he talked of the unfolding disaster happening in northern Italy at the moment. It was instructive that the far-right AfD are taken in by such claims as believing this to be some government 'plan'.

It's easy with hindsight to wish more could have been done earlier, but generally the reaction has been pretty good and lessons learned as things have become clearer. The main exceptions are the UK and the US, but in the US it is worse as their healthcare system doesn't cover the whole population like the UK one does.


----------



## Jody (26 Mar 2020)

The clapping and fireworks here were so loud here. Went on for a good 5 minutes


----------



## stowie (26 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> One example which I hadn't seen was an interview with an Italian doctor stating quite clearly that they hadn't had any deaths and that there was no virus. Turns out what he said was true - except the interview was in mid February. That was the case back then, but in a new interview he talked of the unfolding disaster happening in northern Italy at the moment. *It was instructive that the far-right AfD are taken in by such claims as believing this to be some government 'plan'.*



I know in this world of everyone being able to have an opinion my following statement is frowned upon, but people are taken in by claims because they are morons, or are so desperate for confirmation of their pre-existing prejudices that anything reinforcing them is leapt upon like a terrier on a lamb chop.

It only takes a moment of consideration. There is video of people ill in hospital, of doctors describing the situation, reporters on the ground and citizens posting pictures online. For this government plan to work, it needs all these people to be "in on it". A deception of truly gargantuan proportions. And involving no-one who decides to blow the whole scheme. Frankly these people must have a far higher opinion of the efficiency of governments than me if they believe them capable of this level of organisation. 



Unkraut said:


> It's easy with hindsight to wish more could have been done earlier, but generally the reaction has been pretty good and lessons learned as things have become clearer. The main exceptions are the UK and the US, but in the US it is worse as their healthcare system doesn't cover the whole population like the UK one does.



The US has the resources and physical medical infrastructure to manage the problem. They need to socialise the availability of these resources to combat this extraordinary medical emergency. Unfortunately they chose a president and administration that are a bunch of loons.


----------



## MarkF (26 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I don't know if she is a good nurse or not, but she's a bloody clever media operator.
> 
> There are professional campaigners who work at their cause for months and cannot get a fraction of the traction she achieved in a couple of minutes.


 
But, unsurprisingly, loads are jumping on the bandwagon. I don't do FB but plenty of our staff have jumped in. One whine I was shown yesterday claiming disgusting behaviour towards her by two male visitors for not wearing a mask, it got a ton of sympathetic responses and has caused a right stir in our hospital. Knowing the woman, the area that is was claimed to have taken place in and the prose she used, I am 90%+ certain is was all made up and I would hope that the outcry doesn't result in a demand for the CCTV footage. (No visitors have been in for 3 days).


----------



## Edwardoka (26 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> generally the reaction has been pretty good and lessons learned as things have become clearer. The main exceptions are the UK and the US, but in the US it is worse as their healthcare system doesn't cover the whole population like the UK one does.


The UK government's reaction has been very sluggish but it's finally starting to get into motion, weeks after it needed to.

The US, however, I don't think they have any concept of how utterly screwed they are.
Just looking at flightradar, you'd think it was business as usual.
So many people there are a hospital visit away from bankruptcy and total destitution.
Many are treating it like it's a joke or no big deal or a sign that Jeebus is coming to save them, or a liberal media hoax to discredit their saviour the Holy Cheeto.

I hate being a worst-case kind of guy but the US's current trajectory looks truly, truly dire.
If I were Mexico I'd be offering to pay for the wall.


----------



## Tanis8472 (26 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I've read Aldi are too. Well deserved



We get an extra 5% off our usual 10% at tesco. i do t bloody shop there so not getting anything.

still working serving local businesses even though i dont want to be tgere like most.


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## tom73 (26 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> For me, I would ike it if the government puts a plan in place with companies to enable key equipment to be manufactured at short notice in future, whether that be ventilators, decontamination units etc. It's unrealistic for us to have these in stock "just ion case" as the servicing and maintenance would be prohibitive and they could become unsafe or out of date relatively quickly so an ability to switch manufacturing at speed would be welcome.



It's sounds so simple and practical thing to have in place. which means it's behold a government to think of it sadly. 
Though I'm sure that I've seen in a program about the old QE2 that any cruise ship registered in Uk. 
Has to have built into the plans the ability to be converted to a troop ship. As what happen in the Falklands war. 
So with a bit of planing anything is possible 

The other thing about any stockpile is now nothing is a secret so having some old hanger full of stuff. 
Any Government would have either some reporter milking it or an MP using it to bash the other side. 
Then having every one and the cat on SM going on about the cost. Everyone has something to bad to say when we go it. 
Now we need it everyone has a go saying why did we not have loads of X,Y,Z


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## MarkF (26 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I've read Aldi are too. Well deserved


 It is, they have been knocked from pillar to post for weeks.


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## Mugshot (26 Mar 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> We get an extra 5% off our usual 10% at tesco. i do t bloody shop there so not getting anything.
> 
> still working serving local businesses even though i dont want to be tgere like most.


Sorry Tanis, I don't know what you mean.


----------



## tom73 (26 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> To be fair to the police, the drink driving and speeding is horrendous in North Yorkshire. They are probably also motivated from that point of view a well. They'll be people driving to their mates houses in other north yorkshire villages getting blind drunk and driving back.


Most of the drink driving in North Yorkshire is in and around Harrogate mostly the ladies that lunch. 
i'm happy for them to do what ever it takes to get he message out.


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## tom73 (26 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Looks like social distancing to me...bit of a waste of police time there I think.I live near a busy road.Ill pass more people walking to the shops than I would driving a couple of miles to the countryside for a walk.



Most of the cars when regs checked came from miles away not locals.
Yesterday they had to deal with a large group near the Snake Pass enjoying a picnic and shisha. They'd come from Manchester, Sheffield and Ipswich. We can afford this level of I don't give a ....


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## Pat "5mph" (26 Mar 2020)

News from Rutherglen, outskirts of Glasgow:
local Aldi still no protection for shop workers, no social distancing to speak of.
Local Tesco, a smaller one, all measure implemented, but till operators still don't have a screen to protect them.
Both shops empty of the usual stuff - I found a 4 pack of tp, will do me for more than a week.
Flour of any kind not available, the Tesco boys told me it hasn't been coming in at all.
Local (small shop) chippy not observing anything, enter at your own peril.

For the statistically inclined @nickyboy @McWobble seems a football match vastly contributed to both the Italian and the Spanish coronavirus spread.
Sky news link here, it's on the Guardian too.

@Brompton Bruce guess who is attending the Beatson daily for radiotherapy? 
It was nice knowing you all 
https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news...nurse-beatson-centre-tests-positive-covid-19/


----------



## DaveReading (26 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Though I'm sure that I've seen in a program about the old QE2 that any cruise ship registered in Uk.
> Has to have built into the plans the ability to be converted to a troop ship.



You mean with lots of cabins capable of accommodating people on a long voyage ?


----------



## Edwardoka (26 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> News from Rutherglen, outskirts of Glasgow:
> local Aldi still no protection for shop workers, no social distancing to speak of.
> Local Tesco, a smaller one, all measure implemented, but till operators still don't have a screen to protect them.
> Both shops empty of the usual stuff - I found a 4 pack of tp, will do me for more than a week.
> ...


Pfft. As if a daft wee virus could possibly harm you. If anything, Covid should be scared of catching you.


----------



## Pale Rider (26 Mar 2020)

Footage on Sky News of Boris and a suitably socially distanced Rishi Sunak outside No10 applauding the NHS workers.

Busy day for the chancellor.

Looked to me the help he announced for the self employed is another intelligent and well thought out assistance scheme.

He even found the time to indicate the difference in contributions between self employed and employed will be looked at when the dust settles.

There's no doubt Boris is a buffoon at times, but Sunak is a very sharp cookie.

Good move by Boris to appoint him as his right hand man - at further than arm's length.


----------



## kingrollo (26 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> The UK government's reaction has been very sluggish but it's finally starting to get into motion, weeks after it needed to.
> 
> The US, however, I don't think they have any concept of how utterly screwed they are.
> Just looking at flightradar, you'd think it was business as usual.
> ...


Yeah it looks so bad BJ might pull the trade deal ?


----------



## Edwardoka (26 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Footage on Sky News of Boris and a suitably socially distanced Rishi Sunak outside No10 applauding the NHS workers.
> 
> Busy day for the chancellor.
> 
> ...


You must have been watching a different broadcast to me. This has more holes in it than Swiss cheese. The most obvious one is:

- If you've been self-employed for less than a year, they refuse to help you, join the back of the UC line, because heaven forfend someone gets slightly more money than they'd otherwise be entitled to

There are other holes that people will fall through: if you have been made redundant in the time between businesses being made to close and the relief packages being announced, you are SOL
If you're the owner of a small business that you take a salary from you will not be eligible for any assistance, regardless of whether the business is making any money, meaning that you would need to furlough yourself to get access to the the scheme

Also, you won't get access to these relief funds until June, which is great because as we all know, all self-employed people can survive without eating for 2 months


----------



## kingrollo (26 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Footage on Sky News of Boris and a suitably socially distanced Rishi Sunak outside No10 applauding the NHS workers.
> 
> Busy day for the chancellor.
> 
> ...



Could be interesting in the years to come - who's more popular BJ or the NHS .....


----------



## kingrollo (26 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> You must have been watching a different broadcast to me. This has more holes in it than Swiss cheese. The most obvious one is:
> 
> - If you've been self-employed for less than a year, they refuse to help you, join the back of the UC line, because heaven forfend someone gets slightly more money than they'd otherwise be entitled to
> 
> ...


The Devil's in the detail as always.

Boris more or less opened the other night with "unless it's absolutely essential don't go to work"

But then the guidance appeared - go to work if you can't work from home


----------



## Adam4868 (26 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Most of the cars when regs checked came from miles away not locals.
> Yesterday they had to deal with a large group near the Snake Pass enjoying a picnic and shisha. They'd come from Manchester, Sheffield and Ipswich. We can afford this level of I don't give a ....


I take your point and the pictures of crowds of people picnicking etc,busy parks,public transport.But a couple walking a dog ? They didn't go there on public transport I presume.Big PR stunt and fail as far as I'm concerned.Fly them.over any park or seafront today and you'd be surprised the amount of people out.


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## Edwardoka (26 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> The Devil's in the detail as always.
> 
> Boris more or less opened the other night with "unless it's absolutely essential don't go to work"
> 
> But then the guidance appeared - go to work if you can't work from home


Exactly. Many people are going to be made to choose between starving/defaulting/going into arrears, or continuing going to work, despite the risk of getting sick and spreading it, and self-employed people whose workload has completely dried up because everyone else is on lockdown won't even have that option.

Two months to implement a relief package that requires tons of bureaucracy and means testing to ensure that no povvo gets a penny more than the minimum the system says they should.

I think when the journalist asked Sunak about recently self-employed people who couldn't possibly have filed any tax returns, it was the first time the thought had ever crossed Sunak's mind. At least I hope so, the alternative (that they thought about it but decided that there was no way around it/it wasn't enough of an issue to consider) is deeply obnoxious.


----------



## tom73 (26 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Exactly. Many people are going to be made to choose between starving/defaulting/going into arrears, or continuing going to work, despite the risk of getting sick and spreading it, and self-employed people whose workload has completely dried up because everyone else is on lockdown won't even have that option.
> 
> Two months to implement a relief package that requires tons of bureaucracy and means testing to ensure that no povvo gets a penny more than the minimum the system says they should.
> 
> I think when the journalist asked Sunak about recently self-employed people who couldn't possibly have filed any tax returns, it was the first time the thought had ever crossed Sunak's mind. At least I hope so, the alternative (that they thought about it but decided that there was no way around it/it wasn't enough of an issue to consider) is deeply obnoxious.



Then we've got like many new starts up who even 3 years in have yet to make a profit. They look to be stuffed too.


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## Julia9054 (26 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> If you've been self-employed for less than a year, they refuse to help you, join the back of the UC line, because heaven forfend someone gets slightly more money than they'd otherwise be entitled


My son has been self employed since graduating - 1 year and 9 months. He has 1 year's set of accounts so this is no good to him. As a musician, he has lost all his playing and teaching income and is currently working as many shifts as he can in a care home to make ends meet.


----------



## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> My son has been self employed since graduating - 1 year and 9 months. He has 1 year's set of accounts so this is no good to him. As a musician, he has lost all his playing and teaching income and is currently working as many shifts as he can in a care home to make ends meet.


Why? They will look at 1 year of accounts?
It’s if you’ve never filed accounts that you won’t get the support. That was my understanding.
One of my friends who freelances in the same industry is stuffed as she’s only been paying herself dividends and not a salary  Her work has dried up due to the area she specialises in. 
I’m ok for now as contracted and have ongoing projects


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## Adam4868 (26 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Why? They will look at 1 year of accounts?
> It’s if you’ve never filed accounts that you won’t get the support


Will they ? I thought it was over three years worth


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## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Will they ? I thought it was over three years worth


That’s not what was said

Coronavirus: What help will self-employed get from government? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52052123


----------



## Unkraut (26 Mar 2020)

stowie said:


> The US has the resources and physical medical infrastructure to manage the problem.


Unfortunately for the rest of the world, the US has the resources to buy up all the medical supplies they need. It seems every European country has been caught out on this and is short of supplies and equipment, much of which comes from China and India. With the Americans wanting stuff too the situation will get worse before it gets better.

All countries should make sure for future reference they have the capacity to manufacture their medical needs themselves so they are less dependent on imports.


----------



## PK99 (26 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Will they ? I thought it was over three years worth



The specific point was dealt with in The Q&A


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Mar 2020)

How can the govt pay someone 80% of a figure they haven't declared?


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## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> How can the govt pay someone 80% of a figure they haven't declared?


They can’t, hence you'll not be able to apply if you’ve not filed a minimum of one year (or more accurately you won’t be invited to apply)


----------



## Edwardoka (26 Mar 2020)

I know they say you shouldn't touch your face but I just double facepalmed hard on seeing Trump talk about the death rate dropping
He neglects to mention (because he's too stupid to realise) that the death rate is dropping because they've gained 28,288 new cases over the past 2 days and that in 7-10 days those amongst that number who go on to become critically ill will need ICU beds that don't exist


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## Joey Shabadoo (26 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> They can’t, hence you'll not be able to apply if you’ve not filed a minimum of one year (or more accurately you won’t be invited to apply)



What? You're telling me the taxman won't accept people saying "Honest Guv, I earned £37500 in the last year so give me my £2500 a month thankyouverymuch"? Well I never.


----------



## Adam4868 (26 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> They can’t, hence you'll not be able to apply if you’ve not filed a minimum of one year (or more accurately you won’t be invited to apply)


So you could have been employed PAYE for the last 10/20 years and set up as self employed 11 months ago and you'll get nothing ?


----------



## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> So you could have been employed PAYE for the last 10/20 years and set up as self employed 11 months ago and you'll get nothing ?


Unfortunately yes.


----------



## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> What? You're telling me the taxman won't accept people saying "Honest Guv, I earned £37500 in the last year so give me my £2500 a month thankyouverymuch"? Well I never.


?? It’s not earnings, profit


----------



## Wobblers (26 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> News from Rutherglen, outskirts of Glasgow:
> local Aldi still no protection for shop workers, no social distancing to speak of.
> Local Tesco, a smaller one, all measure implemented, but till operators still don't have a screen to protect them.
> Both shops empty of the usual stuff - I found a 4 pack of tp, will do me for more than a week.
> ...



The Beatson? Radiotherapy? Oh no! 

My sister's all too familiar with them, though fortunately that's a fair while ago now. There's no one better. Good luck and take care.


----------



## Edwardoka (26 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> How can the govt pay someone 80% of a figure they haven't declared?


80% of your taxable income is a bullshoot arbitrary line anyway, on a nonsensical concept.



Strawman said:


> Well, Tarquin, you are an Audi salesman who has been furloughed so you get £2,500 a month for sitting on arse.
> 
> Agnes, it says here that you get £1,100 a month for cleaning the bogs in a supermarket but since you're a key worker we need you to keep calm and carrying on cleaning bogs, I hope you don't get coronavirus, haha
> 
> ...



Instead of giving relief to people based upon their taxable income, the correct thing to do is to force a rent/mortgage holiday and suspend interest on mortgage debt and give EVERYONE enough money to live on, then reclaim it via a lower tax bracket. No bureaucracy, no means testing, no massive holes for people to fall through into the poverty trap.

I'm going for a night bike ride because this all makes my you clicked it again didn't you and I can't be dealing with it.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> 80% of your taxable income is a bullshoot arbitrary line anyway, on a nonsensical concept.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Has any government anywhere done this? Is it working?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> you clicked it again didn't you


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Mar 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1243243397281972225


----------



## mjr (26 Mar 2020)

I forgot this was in the Swiss news but another treatment being trialled: the BCG. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...e-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Has any government anywhere done this? Is it working?


The US stimulus package includes $1,200 cheques to everyone (but I don't know whether that's a one-off or has preconditions attached or is means-tested) and every time I go near American politics I want to claw my eyes out

I cannot speak for the veracity of this, I'm struggling to find any other articles that mention these measures that Italy is putting in place:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/co...-parental-leave-grants-for-the-self-employed/

As it stands, the stimulus package the UK government has announced seems to be the broadest and most far-reaching but the stuff announced today is riddled with corner and edge cases and I have no faith that these cases can or will be handled with a response more meaningful than ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Someone who ends up on £394/mo UC simply because their have yet to file a tax return will likely end up going bust and being evicted/having their house repossessed, whereas if they had started a couple of months earlier they would be supported.

That is what is arbitrary.


----------



## Pale Rider (27 Mar 2020)

Lots of self employed people who spent the last three years trying to convince HMRC they earned next to nothing will now spend the next three months trying to convince them they earned a fortune.


----------



## Adam4868 (27 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Lots of self employed people who spent the last three years trying to convince HMRC they earned next to nothing will now spend the next three months trying to convince them they earned a fortune.


Really ? Why have you such a low opinion of the self employed.How would they convince them of earning a fortune when it's taken of their last accounts.
As for me no money until June...I don't think I'll be cracking the champagne yet !


----------



## Pale Rider (27 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Really ? Why have you such a low opinion of the self employed.How would they convince them of earning a fortune when it's taken of their last accounts.
> As for me no money until June...I don't think I'll be cracking the champagne yet !



A little bit of satire, Adam.

June is the back stop date, they aren't going to back up all successful claims to May 31, then press the payment button on the stroke of midnight.

Yours might well get done a lot earlier.


----------



## Brooks (27 Mar 2020)

I was self employed for 30 years and I wish I had a pound for everyone that told me how much I earned! 
Bloke in my cycling group uses a bike mechanic he knows as he's not charged VAT, bangs on about the bloke not paying tax? I had to remind him that he wasn't either!! Bloody hypocrite.


----------



## Rocky (27 Mar 2020)

@Pat "5mph" ..... I do hope you manage to avoid the virus. It sounds like it’s the last thing you need at the moment. Stay safe. I think I can speak for all CC members in sending you our love


----------



## Tanis8472 (27 Mar 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Sorry Tanis, I don't know what you mean.



sorry, 

i work at a wholesaler 'owned' by tesco.
i never really shopped at tesco as others are closer and my mrs works at asda.

they are basically rewarding people who spend the most at tesco, the most.

im still dealing with customers and folk weve never seen before, some of which seem to be ignorant of distancing. they dont seem to care.


----------



## Johnno260 (27 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> My son has been self employed since graduating - 1 year and 9 months. He has 1 year's set of accounts so this is no good to him. As a musician, he has lost all his playing and teaching income and is currently working as many shifts as he can in a care home to make ends meet.



if he is a music teacher is he able to setup virtual lessons? My children are still doing their classes via a weblink.

Even the fitness Center we use is using a weblink and doing virtual martial arts and fitness classes.


----------



## Johnno260 (27 Mar 2020)

In other news, my wifes 97yr old grandma had her hip surgery, they replaced the hip they were speaking about pinning it, she was awake quickly and doing her physio the next morning, they tested her for the virus as she had a cold and it was negative. It’s small news in comparison I know but it’s huge news for the family and my kids who totally adore her.


----------



## Julia9054 (27 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> if he is a music teacher is he able to setup virtual lessons? My children are still doing their classes via a weblink.
> 
> Even the fitness Center we use is using a weblink and doing virtual martial arts and fitness classes.


Most of his teaching is via a music service and is going into schools. Alot are group lessons. He does have a couple of private pupils (adults) and I am not sure if he is still teaching them remotely. Much of his income comes from agency work as a performer.
My younger son is in his final year at RNCM. He is having his horn lessons via zoom.


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> In other news, my wifes 97yr old grandma had her hip surgery, they replaced the hip they were speaking about pinning it, she was awake quickly and doing her physio the next morning, they tested her for the virus as she had a cold and it was negative. It’s small news in comparison I know but it’s huge news for the family and my kids who totally adore her.


Hopefully she recovers quickly and can be back home soon.


----------



## Pale Rider (27 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Most of his teaching is via a music service and is going into schools. Alot are group lessons. He does have a couple of private pupils (adults) and I am not sure if he is still teaching them remotely. Much of his income comes from agency work as a performer.
> My younger son is in his final year at RNCM. He is having his horn lessons via zoom.



The grey suit who the government put up on Question Time to deal with self employed assistance queries seemed to suggest those with fewer than three years of accounts may still qualify.

'Come to us with what you have,' was roughly what he said.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (27 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The grey suit who the government put up on Question Time to deal with self employed assistance queries seemed to suggest those with fewer than three years of accounts may still qualify.
> 
> 'Come to us with what you have,' was roughly what he said.


He did.

Also interesting was his hint that the Self-employed will be required to pay tax at the same rate as everybody else in the future.


----------



## Johnno260 (27 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Most of his teaching is via a music service and is going into schools. Alot are group lessons. He does have a couple of private pupils (adults) and I am not sure if he is still teaching them remotely. Much of his income comes from agency work as a performer.
> My younger son is in his final year at RNCM. He is having his horn lessons via zoom.



He should contact the music service and see if they are able to do the zoom type lessons from what I have seen they work well.


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

Swiss news: new prediction that intensive care beds will run out next Thursday; train services cut further, no TGVs, road traffic has fallen about 50%, good for animals and health not for the economy; summary of US experience including big unemployment increases; formation of grand coalition government in Israel; Montreux jazz festival postponed;


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> He did.
> 
> Also interesting was his hint that the Self-employed will be required to pay tax at the same rate as everybody else in the future.


Hopefully his hatred of encouraging autonomy and local ownership won't be shared by the rest of whatever government is in power then.


----------



## Pale Rider (27 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> He did.
> 
> Also interesting was his hint that the Self-employed will be required to pay tax at the same rate as everybody else in the future.



My limited experience of claiming government assistance has been more positive than most of what I read on the internet.

Because my hip replacement was taking longer than usual, someone in orthopaedics at the hospital suggested I might qualify for something.

I got the form - you couldn't do it online - and it was a user unfriendly brute, running to more than 40 pages.

Filling it out honestly made me think I'd qualify for nowt.

Do you need help preparing food? No.

Do you need help washing or going to the toilet? No.

And so it went on to the point where, at the end, I thought there was no point in sending it back.

I only did so because they were paying the postage.

You could have knocked me down with a feather when I got a reply a week later to say I'd been awarded a sum which was about in the middle of the range mentioned on the form.


----------



## vickster (27 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> He did.
> 
> Also interesting was his hint that the Self-employed will be required to pay tax at the same rate as everybody else in the future.


IR35 reforms affecting PSCs?
Yes those have been postponed for a year


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (27 Mar 2020)

I wonder if the testing kits becoming available will allow building sites and factories to re-open? Workers could be tested at the gates and only allowed in if clear.


----------



## Levo-Lon (27 Mar 2020)

A infectious disease specialist has said we need to call this a Plague and not a disease.

I must admit it is more of a attention grabbing headline and will possibly make the none believers take notice.

Not entirely sure of the difference between disease and plague but I suspect a plague is harder to control and probably has no medical cure ..


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> A infectious disease specialist has said we need to call this a Plague and not a disease.


Then he's a fool who ought know better. Plague is a specific infection. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/plague


----------



## Mo1959 (27 Mar 2020)

Bit of light relief.


----------



## Julia9054 (27 Mar 2020)




----------



## Mo1959 (27 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> View attachment 510774


Lol......mine is quite happy. Trying to type this with her on my lap sleeping.


----------



## Dave Davenport (27 Mar 2020)

I got a free magazine subscription with my bank account, first one's just arrived...Country Walking.


----------



## Mr Celine (27 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> I forgot this was in the Swiss news but another treatment being trialled: the BCG. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...e-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus


Everyone used to get a BCG at school. I'm not sure when that started or stopped, but it was not available in 2008 when I started treatment which could cause a higher risk of TB.
If it's effective it ought to show up in the stats eg fewer infections for 40 - 60 year olds.


----------



## vickster (27 Mar 2020)

Mr Celine said:


> Everyone used to get a BCG at school. I'm not sure when that started or stopped, but it was not available in 2008 when I started treatment which could cause a higher risk of TB.
> If it's effective it ought to show up in the stats eg fewer infections for 40 - 60 year olds.


It stopped in the UK except for high risk groups 
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/bcg-tuberculosis-tb-vaccine/


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

Continued awful news from Spain, as reported in the Graun.

_There have been 769 deaths in the past 24 hours, bringing the death toll to 4,858. This is a new high - the previous record was 738, between Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

The country now has 64,059 confirmed cases up from 56,188 yesterday_.

Grim stuff. #staythefarkhome


----------



## glasgowcyclist (27 Mar 2020)

And now the PM has tested positive for the virus.

It would be wonderfully ironic if he got it as a result of his dad insisting on going to the pub.


View: https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200?s=19


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (27 Mar 2020)

Step foward Mr Sunak


----------



## tom73 (27 Mar 2020)

If you use WhatsApp you can get updates directly from the government. 
message ‘hi’ to 07860 064422.


----------



## ade towell (27 Mar 2020)

Will he self isolate in the fridge again?


----------



## vickster (27 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Step foward Mr Sunak


He’s not stepping back according to Beeb report


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Step foward Mr Sunak



Err... how to break this to you... they previously announced that someone else would step in if necessary... ...Raab


----------



## tom73 (27 Mar 2020)

Peak park this morning issues a request.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Err... how to break this to you... they previously announced that someone else would step in if necessary... ...Raab


----------



## fossyant (27 Mar 2020)

Well, let's hope Trump catches it, then wakes up to how serious this is as America is going to be in deep doo doo (it already is).


----------



## fossyant (27 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Peak park this morning issues a request.
> 
> View attachment 510802



The Derbyshire Police aren't very 'cyclist' accommodating given their Tweets. Even if you are local, they are tweeting about not cycling (despite national advice, and they have been called out on it).


----------



## Pale Rider (27 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> The Derbyshire Police aren't very 'cyclist' accommodating given their Tweets. Even if you are local, they are tweeting about not cycling (despite national advice, and they have been called out on it).



Seems to me most officialdom regards 'daily cycle' as a half to an hour ride around the doors.


----------



## Blue Hills (27 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Peak park this morning issues a request.
> 
> View attachment 510802


That would seem to allow cycling as long as you don't come by car.
suppose the walking thing is because they assume folk will come by car.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (27 Mar 2020)

PM Boris Johnson has tested positive for Corona Virus (BBC news)


----------



## Electric_Andy (27 Mar 2020)

I did my first shop last night at Morrison's, I hadn't left the house for nearly a week. I felt like a criminal driving there, and had to queue across the car park outside with my trolley 2 mtrs apart. Some people were leaving their trolley 2 metres apart and then walking closer to each other to have a natter  Then one of the check-out ladies was leaning across the till to have a chat with her friend who was buying stuff. it still seems some people aren't taking it seriously enough. 

I will feel a bit better after today, I'm on my own all weekend and have next week off, so I'll be able to sort my garage out, clean the car maybe and do some DIY. I'm glad I've got over the shock of going out, things may get worse but it doesn't seem quite so hideous anymore (but still unsettling)


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> The Derbyshire Police aren't very 'cyclist' accommodating given their Tweets. Even if you are local, they are tweeting about not cycling (despite national advice, and they have been called out on it).



From what I've heard yesterday off people there there seems to be an outbreak in the peaks (not surprising of course). 

The police know that locals can be blighters for going out. Even if their tweets focus on people from Ipswich, Manchester and Sheffield.


----------



## Jody (27 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Peak park this morning issues a request.
> 
> View attachment 510802



Sorry for the DM link but this was shared on my Facebook this morning by someone who lives in the Peak District. Basically lawyers advised the police were being overzealous and it was unlawful to stop people travelling to places like the peak district. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...cused-overzealousness-follow-dog-walkers.html

Yesterday there was a family caught having a BBQ and picnic having I believe traveled from Manchester. There are lots of people heading to the peaks like they did Snowdon/Coast etc as the sun is out and they are going to isolate (along with everyone else)


----------



## tom73 (27 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> The Derbyshire Police aren't very 'cyclist' accommodating given their Tweets. Even if you are local, they are tweeting about not cycling (despite national advice, and they have been called out on it).



Yes seen all about that. Not great choice of words for sure.


----------



## Levo-Lon (27 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Well, let's hope Trump catches it, then wakes up to how serious this is as America is going to be in deep doo doo (it already is).




Harry and Meghan got on a private jet back to LA so it cant be that bad


----------



## tom73 (27 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> That would seem to allow cycling as long as you don't come by car.
> suppose the walking thing is because they assume folk will come by car.



I think the issue is don't go out your way in order to just get out into the peak park.
Unless you live in the area as like everyone else they can do without everyone else turning up on mass. They are trying to head off what's been happening in other areas last weekend.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (27 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Harry and Meghan got on a private jet back to LA so it cant be that bad


Did they?

I thought the US was not allowing flights from Europe and the UK.


----------



## benb (27 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> A infectious disease specialist has said we need to call this a Plague and not a disease.
> 
> I must admit it is more of a attention grabbing headline and will possibly make the none believers take notice.
> 
> Not entirely sure of the difference between disease and plague but I suspect a plague is harder to control and probably has no medical cure ..



That would be quite misleading, as plague is a specific set of diseases, and it bacterial not viral.


----------



## Blue Hills (27 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Did they?
> 
> I thought the US was not allowing flights from Europe and the UK.


i think they flew from canada - no i don't follow the (ex) royals - story bounced up on that annoying screen which pops up when you log out of outlook - stories like - you'll - bitch bitch - never guess what *** looks like now - bitch bitch.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (27 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> i think they flew from canada - no i don't follow the (ex) royals - story bounced up on that annoying screen which pops up when you log out of outlook - stories like - you'll - bitch bitch - never guess what *** looks like now - bitch bitch.



Ah, that makes more sense, thanks.


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

Mr Celine said:


> Everyone used to get a BCG at school. I'm not sure when that started or stopped, but it was not available in 2008 when I started treatment which could cause a higher risk of TB.
> If it's effective it ought to show up in the stats eg fewer infections for 40 - 60 year olds.


It's unlikely to protect people for that long: "They concluded the vaccine prevents about 30% of infections with any known pathogen, including viruses, in the first year after it’s given" and there's some evidence suggesting that effects may last longer but it's far from certain.

I didn't get BCG at school but I was required to get it before registering at university. I don't know between what dates that applied.

Anyway, at worst, it's another tool to test and I don't think we're short of potential test cases yet...


----------



## Unkraut (27 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> PM Boris Johnson has tested positive for Corona Virus (BBC news)


It would be churlish not to wish he gets through this quickly and without some of the more unpleasant symptoms others have had. It's difficult not to feel some irony here though.

As he has tested positive, and all measures possible must have been taken to prevent him getting this due to his office, we can at least hope that the message that this virus is highly contagious might get through the thick skulls of those who still just don't or won't get it.


----------



## Mo1959 (27 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> It would be churlish not to wish he gets through this quickly and without some of the more unpleasant symptoms others have had. It's difficult not to feel some irony here though.
> 
> As he has tested positive, and all measures possible must have been taken to prevent him getting this due to his office, we can at least hope that the message that this virus is highly contagious might get through the thick skulls of those who still just don't or won't get it.


So, along with Prince Charles, he is another one that's been tested but the NHS staff still can't be? 😢


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> So, along with Prince Charles, he is another one that's been tested but the NHS staff still can't be? 😢



This is the joke of testing.

Hoping the Oxford University antibody tests going on right now to validate and assess the accuracy go well.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> So, along with Prince Charles, he is another one that's been tested but the NHS staff still can't be? 😢



I'm no Boris Johnson fan, far from it, but prioritising testing the head of government does seem sensible to me. 

Royal Family, not so much.


----------



## tom73 (27 Mar 2020)

On the issue of testing 
Medical Detection Dogs charity have started work with London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. 
To see if dogs could detect Covid-19. In the same way they already do for a number of other conditions. 
Worth a try be a great help if it works.


----------



## vickster (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm no Boris Johnson fan, far from it, but prioritising testing the head of government does seem sensible to me.
> 
> Royal Family, not so much.


Maybe a constitutional crisis in the UK due to the death of the next in line to be head of state would be unhelpful right now so they tested him?

I'm not an out and out royalist but I'd prefer to not see any further upheaval right now


----------



## Unkraut (27 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> So, along with Prince Charles, he is another one that's been tested but the NHS staff still can't be?


That's part of the irony. I suppose you have to allow testing for key people holding offices of state at a time like this. Even Charles, I suppose, as heir to the throne. I can understand this looks like one law for the rich ...

Given Johnson's dithering there is some poetic justice here, but it's a pity if the justified criticisms of him for his policy morph into personal ill will. Anyone with a relative who is seriously endangered by the virus could be excused for feeling more strongly about this.


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Maybe a constitutional crisis in the UK due to the death of the next in line to be head of state would be unhelpful right now so they tested him?


What constituional crisis? There's a long line of succession before any are in dispute, isn't there? 38 before we get a potential discrimination case.


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Err... how to break this to you... they previously announced that someone else would step in if necessary... ...Raab


I'm deeply conflicted again. On the one hand, I think Boris should step back as his government has been advising other infected people to. On the other, I don't want to see a Raab-led UK.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Maybe a constitutional crisis in the UK due to the death of the next in line to be head of state would be unhelpful right now so they tested him?
> 
> I'm not an out and out royalist but I'd prefer to not see any further upheaval right now



That's not a constitutional crisis. Normal functioning throughout most of history. A lot of first borns never made it onto the throne or died earlier than expected.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

'kinell.

Hancock down too.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> 'kinell.
> 
> Hancock down too.



The social distancing stuff came in in parliament and whitehall more recently than two weeks ago.

There might be a lot of MPs.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)




----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

Does that mean we won't get an update on the 15 minute testing devices....that seem to alternate from being immanent to being months away..

I think we have lost control of this at all levels - nobody really knows what they are doing. Almost every bit of guidance given seems to be followed by a raft of exceptions - making the initial advice useless


----------



## winjim (27 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> It would be churlish not to wish he gets through this quickly and without some of the more unpleasant symptoms others have had. It's difficult not to feel some irony here though.
> 
> As he has tested positive, and all measures possible must have been taken to prevent him getting this due to his office, we can at least hope that the message that this virus is highly contagious might get through the thick skulls of those who still just don't or won't get it.


I honestly hope he makes a full recovery, but my concern is that if he only suffers 'mild' symptoms, he will consider that validation of his 'taking it on the chin' idea.


----------



## Unkraut (27 Mar 2020)

That is of course a very real danger. Saw a politician last night, now recovered, but who had to be put on a ventilator for a couple of days. She said you breath in but it feels as though no air is going into your lungs. Must be awful. Whilst Johnson couldn't complain I wouldn't actually with this on him.


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> It would be churlish not to wish he gets through this quickly and without some of the more unpleasant symptoms others have had. It's difficult not to feel some irony here though.


I guess I'm churlish then.

He has endangered a lot of people, both indirectly and directly.

Indirectly, through inaction, the catastrophic mitigation policy, the slow-unfolding farce of the not-really-locked-down lockdown, and his mismanagement of medical supplies and the mobilisation effort.

Directly, by "I shook hands with everybody" in a hospital that is treating covid patients while taking NO precautions whatsoever.

Hancock has tested positive too and I expect many more in the HoC will follow suit and will have gone forth and spread it amongst their constituents. It's doubtful to say that Johnson is patient zero within HoC but he has certainly infected a lot of people.

It was only a few days ago that he jokingly referred to the project to procure ventilators as "Operation Last Gasp". Gallows humour, perhaps, but given that the only-recently scrapped mitigation policy was to "take it on the chin" and allow lots of old and immunocompromised to die, it's hard to see it in that context.

Again, he literally just botched the EU's joint ventilator procurement project by going "the dog ate my homework" aka "sorry the email was in my spam box".

If he gets terribly sick (which he won't), he will not be one of the ones dying in a conference hall because the hospitals are full and all of the ventilators are in use.

To use his predecessor's language, "let me be clear:" Fark him.
I don't want him to die from this, I want him to *learn *from this.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Does that mean we won't get an update on the 15 minute testing devices....that seem to alternate from being immanent to being months away..
> 
> I think we have lost control of this at all levels - nobody really knows what they are doing. Almost every bit of guidance given seems to be followed by a raft of exceptions - making the initial advice useless



It is alleged that 340 000 of the 640 000 antibody test kits were, contrary to other reports, bought from China. When tested Spain alleges they were 30% accurate and not 80% which is what they wanted.

It may not be directly applicable to the UK as we have companies designing and making antibody tests here. Or maybe the same problems will crop up. I don't know. We will find out soon.

30% is bad. That'd be about the same as chance of a representative sample of suspected coronavirus test candidates in various countries.

There appears no comment on the accuracy of the 300 000 kits from other countries.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm no Boris Johnson fan, far from it, but prioritising testing the head of government does seem sensible to me.



But he wasn’t tested until he showed symptoms so why bother if it’s not pre-emptive. Even then, wouldn’t a test result be valid only on the day?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> he gets terribly sick (which he won't),



I very much admire your ability to give a medical prognosis remote. Is it a service available to anyone or just the Prime Minister?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> But he wasn’t tested until he showed symptoms so why bother if it’s not pre-emptive. Even then, wouldn’t a test result be valid only on the day?



I think a state of affairs where the PM is in isolation but not tested is untenable, frankly.


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> 'kinell.
> 
> Hancock down too.


Second place I've seen that claimed. Source, please? I thought he'd only tested positive, not collapsed.


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I very much admire your ability to give a medical prognosis remote. Is it a service available to anyone or just the Prime Minister?


Yeah, do you want to book an appointment?


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Second place I've seen that claimed. Source, please? I thought he'd only tested positive, not died.


Down as in brought low, not down as in dead


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Down as in brought low, not down as in dead


Corrected to "collapsed". Other report I saw was that he "has just succumbed" which was less ambiguous.


----------



## pawl (27 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> I think the issue is don't go out your way in order to just get out into the peak park.
> Unless you live in the area as like everyone else they can do without everyone else turning up on mass. They are trying to head off what's been happening in other areas last weekend.



The problem is the people in video may be locals.Others seeing the video may think what a good idea and travel to the area Possible it could turn into the situation that took place at the weekend at various sites.


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Corrected to "collapsed". Other report I saw was that he "has just succumbed" which was less ambiguous.


Those are both *terrible*. Which outlets came up with those?


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Those are both *terrible*. Which outlets came up with those?


I don't know because neither poster cited their source. I suspect it's BS but who knows?


----------



## Skibird (27 Mar 2020)

pawl said:


> The problem is the people in video may be locals.Others seeing the video may think what a good idea and travel to the area Possible it could turn into the situation that took place at the weekend at various sites.


 There are definitely more people here in the IOW and they are not locals. I have also seen on line here, that a large group of people from London have booked some holiday cottages in the next vilage for the next 3 months!


----------



## Adam4868 (27 Mar 2020)

Social isolation or rats leaving the ship.

View: https://twitter.com/NicKeaney/status/1243510189090799617?s=19


----------



## Unkraut (27 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> He has endangered a lot of people, both indirectly and directly.


I can understand you being narked about this, you see it daily on your TV screen whereas I don't. 

I hope at the end of this there will be an enquiry, and if Johnson or anyone else has been negligent then consequences should follow, i.e. he should go.


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Social isolation or rats leaving the ship.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/NicKeaney/status/1243510189090799617?s=19



Bravely brave Sir Robin
Brave Sir Robin ran away
When danger reared its ugly head
He bravely turned his tail and fled


----------



## tom73 (27 Mar 2020)

A number of checks on the car number plates showed some clearly had travelled miles just for a walk.
The police are stuffed either way they have a big area to cover not just part of the peak park but urban areas too. 
Maybe it is heavy handed but they have to try something. 
Health and other services out that way are hard pushed as it is. 
Also remember that if you get into trouble it's often volunteers who come to your rescue. 
The current outbreak is placing them in difficult situation too.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I hope at the end of this there will be an enquiry, and if Johnson or anyone else has been negligent then consequences should follow, i.e. he should go



A wry sense of humour you have there


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (27 Mar 2020)

Despite the barely-disguised glee from some quarters, senior government coming down with this is bad. I'd expect all those involved at the top to have been meeting regularly so it would be unsurprising if a great many more don't have it too - politicians *and* experts. (isn't this what happened in Iran?). So we'd have a decapitated government, a leaderless opposition in limbo, Parliament in recess... could Sturgeon be the most senior politician left standing?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> The current outbreak is placing them in difficult situation too



Nor so difficult that they can't waste time harassing lone dog walkers with drones though. Clearly bored.


----------



## Mugshot (27 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> To use his predecessor's language, "let me be clear:" Fark him.
> I don't want him to die from this, I want him to *learn *from this.


I don't wish him ill, I think he's an atrocious individual whose actions past and present have cost lives and will cost lives, but I don't wish him dead. But I have to say that if he breezes through this I can honestly picture him at the lecturn blathering about a bulldog spirit, Dunkirk, the blitz and getting Corona done.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

shoot is really hitting the fan today. 

_Deaths in England rise by 168 to 689_

That's close on 30% increase. 

RIP.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> shoot is really hitting the fan today.
> 
> _Deaths in England rise by 168 to 689_
> 
> ...



We are going IMO to get up to 700 a day soon - based on italy that seems to be the peak number. Although I have heard it said that the figure is only those that die in hospital - as the hospitals can take no more patients the figure sticks around that - but perhaps many more die at home.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> shoot is really hitting the fan today.
> 
> _Deaths in England rise by 168 to 689_
> 
> ...


Guardian is reporting 181 in the last 24 hours.


----------



## winjim (27 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Despite the barely-disguised glee from some quarters, senior government coming down with this is bad. I'd expect all those involved at the top to have been meeting regularly so it would be unsurprising if a great many more don't have it too - politicians *and* experts. (isn't this what happened in Iran?). So we'd have a decapitated government, a leaderless opposition in limbo, Parliament in recess... could Sturgeon be the most senior politician left standing?


It's seven days isolation once symptomatic, right? So he'll be back in action week after next.


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Nor so difficult that they can't waste time harassing lone dog walkers with drones though. Clearly bored.


The intent was to make a visible example out of them. However, like pretty much everything the UK authorities have done since this crisis started, it backfired because they are apparently incapable of any kind of foresight.


----------



## the snail (27 Mar 2020)




----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Despite the barely-disguised glee from some quarters, senior government coming down with this is bad. I'd expect all those involved at the top to have been meeting regularly so it would be unsurprising if a great many more don't have it too - politicians *and* experts. (isn't this what happened in Iran?). So we'd have a decapitated government, a leaderless opposition in limbo, Parliament in recess... could Sturgeon be the most senior politician left standing?


It's a shame John Candy is no longer with us, the King Ralph sequel practically writes itself.


----------



## Lilliburlero (27 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Well, let's hope Trump catches it, then wakes up to how serious this is as America is going to be in deep doo doo (it already is).


Hoping someone catches it is a ridiculous thing to post.....


----------



## Unkraut (27 Mar 2020)

Lilliburlero said:


> Hoping someone catches it is a ridiculous thing to post.....


... well yes, but this might @Edwardoka be the only way to get him to learn how serious the situation really is.


----------



## fossyant (27 Mar 2020)

Lilliburlero said:


> Hoping someone catches it is a ridiculous thing to post.....



Not meant seriously, but Trumps attitude to this virus is incredibly stupid. At what point will he realise it won't be over in a couple of weeks.


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

Lilliburlero said:


> Hoping someone catches it is a ridiculous thing to post.....


This is one case where the needs of the many clearly outweigh the needs of the few.
If he catches it, gets sick and publicly demonstrates that this is no joke, no liberal hoax, not a partisan issue, that it's really farking serious, a lot of people in the US might wise up.
If they can't sway the koolaid gang, I can't see how America avoids losing anywhere between hundreds of thousands to millions of people.



Unkraut said:


> ... well yes, but this might @Edwardoka be the only way to get him to learn how serious the situation really is.


Snap.


----------



## Pale Rider (27 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> The intent was to make a visible example out of them. However, like pretty much everything the UK authorities have done since this crisis started, it backfired because they are apparently incapable of any kind of foresight.



The intention was to highlight to the public they cannot get away with a non-essential journey by making it to a remote location.

Public reaction to that, positive or negative, is not a backfire.

As regards foresight, the coppers would have expected a mixed reaction.

The video was a success because it was intended to remind the public of their now legal responsibilities not to make non-essential journeys.

It was not intended as a base for an opinion poll.

The timing of it was because the police power to fine came into force yesterday.


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The intention was to highlight to the public they cannot get away with a non-essential journey by making it to a remote location.
> 
> Public reaction to that, positive or negative, is not a backfire.
> 
> ...


Fair point, well made, though I would still argue that the backlash was predictable and will, I expect, lead to several people who would have otherwise been compliant changing their stance to one of defiance.

We're a stubborn lot, this image speaks to me:


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> A number of checks on the car number plates showed some clearly had travelled miles just for a walk.


How's it show that? A vehicle does not have to be kept at the correspondence address of its registered keeper!


----------



## fossyant (27 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> How's it show that? A vehicle does not have to be kept at the correspondence address of its registered keeper!



No, but they usually are.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The intention was to highlight to the public they cannot get away with a non-essential journey by making it to a remote location.
> 
> Public reaction to that, positive or negative, is not a backfire.
> 
> ...



It's not remote. One shot is close to parts of population centres. 

It will also be 'locals' flouting the spirit of the rules as well.

Of all the gin joints in all the world Derbyshire police chose that one.


----------



## fossyant (27 Mar 2020)

The issue is, if folk keep pushing the boundary, we will get locked down. Like going out for a 3-4 hour bike ride each day. Come on an hour or two maximum is enough. Same with un-necessary travel.

We went out today for prescriptions, but gave up seeing the un-orderly queue outside the pharmacy, plus the Iceland's queue wasn't well spaced, so we skipped it. I'll do a dash when it's not busy.


----------



## Levo-Lon (27 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Not meant seriously, but Trumps attitude to this virus is incredibly stupid. At what point will he realise it won't be over in a couple of weeks.




If ever a Twitter account needed closing that would be Numero Uno..


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> So we'd have a decapitated government, a leaderless opposition in limbo, Parliament in recess... could Sturgeon be the most senior politician left standing?


England cannot be that lucky?


----------



## fossyant (27 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> If ever a Twitter account needed closing that would be Numero Uno..



It's fake news !


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> No, but they usually are.


Evidence welcome. Mine's spent months on the other side of the country.


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> If ever a Twitter account needed closing that would be Numero Uno..


Not again with the constant negative press covfefe


----------



## fossyant (27 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Evidence welcome. Mine's spent months on the other side of the country.



Our 3 cars are sat on my drive, as are our neighbours on their drives.


----------



## Levo-Lon (27 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> The issue is, if folk keep pushing the boundary, we will get locked down. Like going out for a 3-4 hour bike ride each day. Come on an hour or two maximum is enough. Same with un-necessary travel.
> 
> We went out today for prescriptions, but gave up seeing the un-orderly queue outside the pharmacy, plus the Iceland's queue wasn't well spaced, so we skipped it. I'll do a dash when it's not busy.




Use quality outlets like M&S or Waitrose the aholes won't spend the extra so you get to shop in a relatively safe way.
The civilised know how to behave. Sadly the tracksuit brigade Don't


----------



## Lilliburlero (27 Mar 2020)

fossyant said:


> Not meant seriously, but Trumps attitude to this virus is incredibly stupid. At what point will he realise it won't be over in a couple of weeks.


I’m sure he knows it won’t be over in a couple of weeks and I’m sure the post wasn’t serious. Hoping someone in their 70’s catching this virus is a good thing is a bit silly, like him or not.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Guardian is reporting 181 in the last 24 hours.



I think that's probably uk - my write was also from graun but England only


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

Lilliburlero said:


> I’m sure he knows it won’t be over in a couple of weeks and I’m sure the post wasn’t serious. Hoping someone in their 70’s catching this virus is a good thing is a bit silly, like him or not.


Trump is preparing us for "there's a virus out there that can kill u" but life goes on

I suspect we will get to that point. You get up every morning check your temp - if it's ok - you carry on.

We won't wait IMO for zero cases - before the UK grinds back into action.

Over time - we will get better at detecting it - treating it - avoiding it....


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think that's probably uk - my write was also from graun but England only


Of course, silly me.


----------



## tom73 (27 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Use quality outlets like M&S or Waitrose the aholes won't spend the extra so you get to shop in a relatively safe way.
> The civilised know how to behave. Sadly the tracksuit brigade Don't



Get a fair few looking down on you too and they are equally happy to push and shove. 
Many can't pay the extra , currently i'm able to pay extra. For a few day to day bits as I know they will have stuff in and it's pretty empty. 
But when it come to having to buy other stuff as this go's on then I won't be.


----------



## Pale Rider (27 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Fair point, well made, though I would still argue that the backlash was predictable and will, I expect, lead to several people who would have otherwise been compliant changing their stance to one of defiance.
> 
> We're a stubborn lot, this image speaks to me:
> View attachment 510825



I agree, there can be few new measures that won't get a backlash of some degree, and that can lead to defiance.

The Derbyshire Police superintendent said on the radio yesterday it is not his task to judge the correctness of the measure, but it is his task to ensure compliance with it.

I think Boris was hopeful the matter could be dealt with by willing acceptance, which is the most effective way to achieve any change of behaviour.

But I bet he was shocked and dismayed by the images from our parks and beauty spots last weekend, which compelled him to abandon the persuasive words and pick up his stick.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We won't wait IMO for zero cases - before the UK grinds back into action.
> 
> Over time - we will get better at detecting it - treating it - avoiding it....



I'm not sure there's a plan at all, here or anywhere else, beyond "do whatever is needed to stop an appalling number of people dying in the next few weeks".

We'll see what comes next.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The Derbyshire Police superintendent said on the radio yesterday it is not his task to judge the correctness of the measure, but it is his task to ensure compliance with it.



This is bullshit though. 

He chooses how to prioritise his resources. 

He chose to target lone dog walkers. 

He could have made many other choices.


----------



## PK99 (27 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Use quality outlets like M&S or Waitrose the aholes won't spend the extra so you get to shop in a relatively safe way.
> The civilised know how to behave. Sadly the tracksuit brigade Don't



My wife got back from Waitrose a few minutes ago having done a "normal weekly shop" - 4 m spaced queue in carpark, 1 in 1 out, everything in stock except tinned toms. Took no longer than a normal shop


----------



## AndyRM (27 Mar 2020)

In these unsporting times, at last a solution:


View: https://twitter.com/MrAndrewCotter/status/1243539675031232519?s=08


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> He could have made many other choices.



If Derbyshire which includes Derby is anything like Sheffield, they are likely targeting the wrong places. It's reported in poorer bits of the city that there are outside gatherings of 10-20 children/adults and a lot of inter household mixing going on, sometimes for hours at a time.


----------



## tom73 (27 Mar 2020)

National Police Chiefs’ Council reports fines for non compliance are beginning to be issued.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm not sure there's a plan at all, here or anywhere else, beyond "do whatever is needed to stop an appalling number of people dying in the next few weeks".
> 
> We'll see what comes next.



Yeah - I get the feeling that some degree of Herd immunity is factored in.
Problems will start if our deaths start to get worse than Italy or Spain.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (27 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> If Derbyshire which includes Derby is anything like Sheffield, they are likely targeting the wrong places. It's reported in poorer bits of the city that there are outside gatherings of 10-20 children/adults and a lot of inter household mixing going on, sometimes for hours at a time.



The clapping event last night turned into a party between 3 houses in my street, going on until after midnight.
This morning four young lads met up with fishing rods and headed off together down the road. 
The lad with learning difficulties continues to wander back and forward to the shop umpteen times a day, stopping to chat with anyone who'll let him.
There's more and more young people wandering about in ones and twos, not particularly going anywhere and the inevitable dirt bike has appeared with numerous different helmetless riders zooming all over the place.

My desk is by a window and I see it all passing me by.

I watched the window cleaner work his way along the houses, knocking on each door with his hand out. I put his money on an envelope on the window ledge - he took the money, screwed up the envelope and threw it behind a flower pot  Now been told not to come back, even if he survives.


----------



## vickster (27 Mar 2020)

Chris Whitty symptoms now too


----------



## winjim (27 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> If Derbyshire which includes Derby is anything like Sheffield, they are likely targeting the wrong places. It's reported in poorer bits of the city that there are outside gatherings of 10-20 children/adults and a lot of inter household mixing going on, sometimes for hours at a time.


Police spotter plane over Bolehills.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (27 Mar 2020)

winjim said:


> Police spotter plane over Bolehills.
> 
> View attachment 510846



Big brother is here. How about they go round town and find all the groups?


----------



## Duffy (27 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Evidence welcome. Mine's spent months on the other side of the country.



30 years in the police, they usually are..........


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

winjim said:


> Police spotter plane over Bolehills.
> 
> View attachment 510846



For those living outside Sheffield this is next to a very posh area of the city.

Not over the poor areas is it?


----------



## Blue Hills (27 Mar 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Use quality outlets like M&S or Waitrose the aholes won't spend the extra so you get to shop in a relatively safe way.
> The civilised know how to behave. Sadly the tracksuit brigade Don't


Got to say that sounds damn snobby.
I like to think we are living in a society.
no idea which oufits are meant by "aholes".
Ever looked at the domestic history of WW2?
and the black market?
for some terribly terribly "civilised" folks rationing didn't exist.


----------



## Salty seadog (27 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I put his money on an envelope on the window ledge - he took the money, screwed up the envelope and threw it behind a flower pot  Now been told not to come back, even if he survives.




I support this message.


----------



## mjr (27 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> For those living outside Sheffield this is next to a very posh area of the city.
> 
> Not over the poor areas is it?


Sheffield police be 🙈 🙈 🙈


----------



## winjim (27 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> For those living outside Sheffield this is next to a very posh area of the city.
> 
> Not over the poor areas is it?


Presumably it's moved about the place but I don't know where else it's been. Not sure I'd describe the Bolehills area as very posh. Fairly well off but regular suburban I'd say. But yeah, not one of the poorer areas.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Chris Whitty symptoms now too



Whether you like, loathe, or otherwise the people announcing symptoms today, the whole of the medical and political leadership of the crisis being taken out at a stroke is very bad news.


----------



## Mo1959 (27 Mar 2020)

Just watching the update. Not sounding good, and they are saying this is going to remain around and will be back next year.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Sheffield police be 🙈 🙈 🙈



The comments are because I have had series of reports, sometimes with photographic evidence of gatherings in various poor areas of the city with frustrations along what people said the police had to say about it. 

It's also a bit contrary to what nhs bods here said what their worries were about how it might spread and areas to be worried about.

Also had other reports of friends going out for walks in posh bits of the city in parks about how there are people out but generally 1s and 2s and following social distancing very strictly. 

I haven't left the house since Sunday but the last two days one lot across the road very likely hasn't been sticking to the guidelines let alone staying in for 12 weeks. Another neighbour has been having people around. Aside from that it looks like vast majority sticking to things.


----------



## carlosfandangus (27 Mar 2020)

Just witnessed 3 lads about 50 yards away at the edge of our very large park, one had gloves on and kept saying to his mate "keep your distance" they then proceeded to share one joint between all three, they then walked off keeping 6 foot apart!!! Words fail


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just watching the update. Not sounding good, and they are saying this is going to remain around and will be back next year.



Gove said spread of the virus doubling every three to four days. Not sure how precise that is, Boris has been a bit so sometimes, but every four days would be decent news. Complete odds to BBC and other analysis which said every two to three days.


----------



## winjim (27 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The comments are because I have had series of reports, sometimes with photographic evidence of gatherings in various poor areas of the city with frustrations along what people said the police had to say about it.
> 
> It's also a bit contrary to what nhs bods here said what their worries were about how it might spread and areas to be worried about.
> 
> ...


Certainly some of the residents around the Bolehills area have been getting frustrated at what they see as lack of social distancing, but also there has been some quite nasty abuse of people just out for their daily exercise. I've seen pictures from other parts of the city where it looks much worse though.


----------



## Blue Hills (27 Mar 2020)

was out on a 15 to 20km ride in london (5 miles south of river) yesterday after essentially being in for 7 days or more. 
in general i would say everyone in streets/parks was behaving excellently.

order appeared to be returning to shops as well though didn't go in any - haven't really shopped for 2 weeks - biding my time.


----------



## Unkraut (27 Mar 2020)

Unintended irony? I have just seen a headline stating Boris Johnson has corona with a picture of him at a lectern bearing the legend _Protect the NHS_.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

Rumour of 919 deaths in Italy today ?


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

I do wish the BBC would stop the lax reporting. 9000 tests a day.

No, the country had a single day with 9000 tests just as some quite considerable time ago it had a day with 8400 tests. We are doing 6000 tests a day based on recent times.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Rumour of 919 deaths in Italy today ?



It isn't a rumour sadly. It is a fact supported by evidence that there have been more than additional 900 deaths.

Source corriere della sera.


----------



## carlosfandangus (27 Mar 2020)

Went to M&S yesterday on the bike, just a few items required (smallish rucksack) in and out in 15 mins, did 25 miles once i had dropped of at home, went to Tesco today in the van and the shelves were almost full, a few products were low (pasta) had to queue for about 500 m around the car park staff were handling things very well, good to all off them, I was laid off on Tuesday (gladly) I must say thank you to all supermarket workers who are keeping us fed in extraordinary times. Blue hills, you may have to wait but don't go without, they are doing there best and are doing an excellent job.


----------



## Mugshot (27 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> My desk is by a window and I see it all passing me by.











This gif shows James Stewart in the film Rear Window, in the film Jeff (played by Stewart) watches the comings and goings of his neighbours from his window, but, there's a twist! 
Joey is also watching the world go by from his window, let's hope he doesn't have the same experience as Jeff!!


----------



## Blue Hills (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Rumour of 919 deaths in Italy today ?


facts worse than rumour.
from beeb:

Italy's death toll rises by 969 - believed to be the sharpest hike in fatalities of any country


----------



## Blue Hills (27 Mar 2020)

carlosfandangus said:


> Blue hills, you may have to wait but don't go without, they are doing there best and are doing an excellent job.


thanks for the thought. i won't - waiting until milk runs out then will do one shop for selection of bits.
luckily my cooking is "creative" - will chuck anything in - so very flexible on what I get.
and of course number of each item will be limited - great to see that things getting better - was what i was calculating on - some barmy scenes last week/ten days.
off to markets tomorrow.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (27 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Gove said spread of the virus doubling every three to four days. Not sure how precise that is, Boris has been a bit so sometimes, but every four days would be decent news. Complete odds to BBC and other analysis which said every two to three days.



You and I know Gove hasn't got a clue regarding number infected - how can he, given only those who are serious enough to be admitted into hospitals are tested? c7000 tests a day is only around 5 tests per hospital a day in the country!

Number of deaths, on the other hand, has to be more reliable, although apparently those who die at home with symptoms have not been counted. As we all can see below, total fatalities recorded have definitely been doubling every two to three days.


----------



## Blue Hills (27 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> facts worse than rumour.
> from beeb:
> 
> Italy's death toll rises by 969 - believed to be the sharpest hike in fatalities of any country


above paste from bbc web - news on TV now saying 919.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> above paste from bbc web - news on TV now saying 919.


Either way it's grim


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (27 Mar 2020)

This article is the most in-depth assessment I have seen so far, of how and why UK screwed testing up completely.

Complete lack of leadership and priority on people's wellbeing sound like the fundamental causes - who would have thunk it, with BJ as PM?


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> This article is the most in-depth assessment I have seen so far, of how and why UK screwed testing up completely.
> 
> Complete lack of leadership and priority on people's wellbeing sound like the fundamental causes - who would have thunk it, with BJ as PM?
> 
> ...


Ah yeah - but they are "Ramping up the testing next week" ....... (Yawn) 

Its herd immunity by stealth IMO


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Its herd immunity by stealth IMO



Certainly Londoners are voting for herd immunity with their feet, if you see what we are doing compared with historical figures, and how much more serious the main European and US cities are taking it:







Source.

It is going to be a massacre right here.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (27 Mar 2020)

At last some positive news from the guys in charge. Not what I was expecting though.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Certainly Londoners are voting for herd immunity with their feet, if you see what we are doing compared with historical figures, and how much more serious the main European and US cities are taking it:
> 
> 
> View attachment 510905
> ...


Yeah Ive gone from thinking we won't be as bad as Italy - to thinking we might not be as bad as the US.


----------



## dodgy (27 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> At last some positive news from the guys in charge. Not what I was expecting though.


You post that as if we're all glued to the news. I'm not. What happened?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (27 Mar 2020)




----------



## Ming the Merciless (27 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> At last some positive news from the guys in charge. Not what I was expecting though.



What’s that then?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (27 Mar 2020)

Whitty, Hancock, Johnson, all positive.


----------



## dodgy (27 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Whitty, Hancock, Johnson, all positive.



Ok, but please be specific and consider the readers next time. Almost no point in posting otherwise.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (27 Mar 2020)

Darwinian Selection In Real Time:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3NAx3tsy-k


Another source.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Whitty, Hancock, Johnson, all positive.



I don't think Whitty is a politician ? - The other two I have no time for at all in terms of their political viewpoints. However I don't see how 2 of our most senior politicians being infected can be classed as good news.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't think Whitty is a politician ? - The other two I have no time for at all in terms of their political viewpoints. However I don't see how 2 of our most senior politicians being infected can be classed as good news.


Sorry, you'll have to pardon me for my black humour. The news was that they (tested) positive....


----------



## dodgy (27 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Sorry, you'll have to pardon me for my black humour. The news was that they (tested) positive....


Literally splitting my sides here.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (27 Mar 2020)

dodgy said:


> Literally splitting my sides here.



Is that the more severe symptom?


----------



## Johnno260 (27 Mar 2020)

What I find concerning is some of my American colleagues are totally convinced this is man made, and it’s a deliberate act to crash the world economy.
I kind of just didn’t respond to their views and got on with the issues at hand.


----------



## tom73 (27 Mar 2020)

Now got moorland fires from left over BBQ's as if they don't have enough to do right now. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-52068797
West Yorkshire had the same problem a few days ago. 
Think the brain dead are increasing pushing us to yet more limiting measures


----------



## Ming the Merciless (27 Mar 2020)

The scale of the field hospitals being setup and more to come highlights the scale of what is coming and even they will be overwhelmed .


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

Went to supermarket. Busier than last week. Everyone making an effort to social distance. In some areas totally deserted, some roads a hell of a lot of traffic. Loo roll and eggs in! A lot more frozen in. Soap still unavailable.

Council resurfacing the inner ring road. Don't have a problem as was following social distancing.


----------



## Pale Rider (27 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Went to supermarket. Busier than last week. Everyone making an effort to social distance. In some areas totally deserted, some roads a hell of a lot of traffic. Loo roll and eggs in! A lot more frozen in. Soap still unavailable.
> 
> Council resurfacing the inner ring road. Don't have a problem as was following social distancing.



Same here at Morrisons, and the roads, while still quiet, are busier.

Which on its own doesn't raise the question of when does restriction compliance fatigue set in.

But I will raise it anyway.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

First shop for a week. Totally quiet. No queues, most stuff in except, no flour, no pasta and weirdly no lemons. So home baking, bolognese and G&T must be top of the quarantine pops I guess.


----------



## Soltydog (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> First shop for a week. Totally quiet. No queues, no pasta


We normally shop every 2-3 days, but are trying to shop just once a week now, although I don't think we can get fresh veg & fruit to last a week, so maybe a small shop at greengrocer or farm shop to reduce contact, but the local co-op yesterday was quiet with no queues (despite only 1 staffed till & 1 self service) & they had pasta, so had a couple of bags as we were out at home.

One thing I have noticed round here, the roads are generally a bit quieter, but living rural they tend to be quieter anyway. I've only been going out on the bike for an hour or so, which isn't long for me, but there's been a fair few out walking & they all seem friendly, just about all say hello, morning etc as we pass. Not sure if it's the lack of social interaction & they are desperate to talk to someone, or are folk generally being nicer to each other at present? Maybe different in big cities, but it's very pleasant cycling around here at the moment


----------



## perplexed (27 Mar 2020)

Went to do the supermarket shop for the elderly parents who are some miles away and are self isolating. One in, one out and quite a well organised queue for the tills. I'd say a good 90% of people were making a good effort to SD once in the store. Anyway, arrived at their's and flung their stuff through the door whilst they stayed in the back.

Back into Sheffield to do our shop. Same thing in the supermarket again, and the staff were erecting barriers across the car park (down the side) to begin to organise the increased numbers ('specially for tomorrow I guess).

General observations: On my last run out, I saw quite a lot of elderly folks out shopping _with_, presumably their children and not generally worrying too much about SD. I didn't see this at all today.

Traffic: Quite hit and miss, very much depended where you were. Perhaps, say 35% down on the norm. Bit like a quiet Sunday from years ago, but there were some bits where you'd never know anything out of the ordinary was happening.

This took me about 3.5 hours in total.

On my way out, I saw a vintage car, 1920s I'd say. Driver and a passenger. On the way back, as I noted, 3.5 hours-ish later, I saw the same car tootling around!


----------



## Cuchilo (27 Mar 2020)

The one thing i find very sad about is the amount of people treating this like a holiday . I say sad but i'm disgusted !
I have shut my business down . I do not earn any money and will not get any .
This is not a game that you can win . Stop treating it like one .


----------



## Rusty Nails (27 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> What I find concerning is some of my American colleagues are totally convinced this is man made, and it’s a deliberate act to crash the world economy.
> I kind of just didn’t respond to their views and got on with the issues at hand.



Are they Trump supporters?


----------



## Pale Rider (27 Mar 2020)

Saw my first virus inspired loss of temper today.

The barriers to manage the entrance queue at Asda were erected in such a way as to make it easy to walk down the exit lane by mistake when trying to get in - I did it.

My response to this catastrophic event was to turn round and use the correct lane.

The response of another guy who did it was to eff and blind at the security guard who was managing the arrangement.

It was almost reassuring to realise the casually foul mouthed ignorant are not going to let a poxy virus interfere with their normal behavior.


----------



## vickster (27 Mar 2020)

I wonder if we might soon end up with more restrictions like Ireland, brief exercise, going no more than 2km from home
Coronavirus: Leo Varadkar 'now is the time for further action' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52071733


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> I wonder if we might soon end up with more restrictions like Ireland, brief exercise, going no more than 2km from home
> Coronavirus: Leo Varadkar 'now is the time for further action' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52071733


Given the non slow down in Italy - that must be a distinct possibility. 
Do they actually know how this thing is spreading ?


----------



## vickster (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Given the non slow down in Italy - that must be a distinct possibility.
> Do they actually know how this thing is spreading ?


Who?


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Who?


Experts


----------



## Soltydog (27 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> I wonder if we might soon end up with more restrictions like Ireland, brief exercise, going no more than 2km from home


Folk round here seem to be adhering to the governments advice (finally) & I was hoping there would be no further restrictions. The shortest loop I can cycle from home is 7 miles, 2km from home, I'd just be back & forth up the main road


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Saw my first virus inspired loss of temper today.
> 
> The barriers to manage the entrance queue at Asda were erected in such a way as to make it easy to walk down the exit lane by mistake when trying to get in - I did it.
> 
> My response to this catastrophic event was to turn round and use the correct lane.



As I left a bloke thought the supermarket was closed due to one entrance being shut and was yelling and walked off, so I told him to go in the other side.


----------



## vickster (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Experts


I’m sure there’s plenty of stuff to read online about the science and mechanism of viral transmission


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

Well Italy has been on lockdown , I think similar to ours - for 4 weeks - it's still ripping through.

It either lies dormant much longer than we think - or is more easily passed on than we think.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Given the non slow down in Italy - that must be a distinct possibility.
> Do they actually know how this thing is spreading ?



It's hard to assess in Italy because the fluctuation is made up of three regions where the numbers vary a lot from day to day. Obviously 900+ is very bad but most of these deaths were infected 3 to 4 weeks ago.

For how widespread the virus is in Italy who knows. Very little testing compared to.how widespread it is.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's hard to assess in Italy because the fluctuation is made up of three regions where the numbers vary a lot from day to day. Obviously 900+ is very bad but most of these deaths were infected 3 to 4 weeks ago.
> 
> For how widespread the virus is in Italy who knows. Very little testing compared to.how widespread it is.


We are so much in the dark - you would think deaths would be a solid stat - but now it seems only in hospital deaths are counted.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

Regardless as to what it tells us about the epidemiology, 900 deaths in a single country in a single day is desperately awful.


----------



## Unkraut (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well Italy has been on lockdown , I think similar to ours - for 4 weeks - it's still ripping through.


I don't think in practice it has, and this is part of the problem.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well Italy has been on lockdown , I think similar to ours - for 4 weeks - it's still ripping through.
> 
> It either lies dormant much longer than we think - or is more easily passed on than we think.



Two and a half weeks. Although, some would argue that the very different ways Italians did things to many other countries it was realistically later than this (this is very much my view).

The scary bit for Italy is the bits that have supposedly been in lockdown for four weeks. Those areas do exist. Some of those areas the not so populated ones are indeed doing quite well, other populated areas nearby are yeah, doing catastropically badly .


----------



## ozboz (27 Mar 2020)

It was a horrible sight on the telly seeing 40 ft refrigerated trailers parked up by New York hospitals to be used as temporary mortuary’s, 
Jesus, What next ,


----------



## Tanis8472 (27 Mar 2020)

and yet im still getting absolute daffodils at work who think its ok to invade my 'spacex
and touch my work equipment. 
finally snapped today at a customer.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We are so much in the dark - you would think deaths would be a solid stat - but now it seems only in hospital deaths are counted.



There are variations day by day, the errors are quite large. Like the Piemonte figures that weren't included and then got added later. Or the UK that changed it's system, or a large london hospital that had a lot of deaths and then I think it was 3 day's worth that got added together.

The uncertainty's reflects the lack of testing. All right so someone looks at Italy and say's cor blimey 394,079 tests, what are you on about? Not very much testing is going on in some regions, for what are relatively large outbreaks with still quite a lot of deaths (as Italy's ahead of most other countries). Italy was doing almost the same number of tests per day as the UK is now for the same number of deaths. The number of patients in ICU in Italy is still rising which isn't reported here.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Regardless as to what it tells us about the epidemiology, 900 deaths in a single country in a single day is desperately awful.



Horrific. But I think Spain is sadly about to overtake Italy in largest daily death toll. New York State is not looking good in about a week's time.

541 deaths in a day in a region of ten million people.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

All the overreaction s now seem like underreactions


----------



## Wobblers (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think a state of affairs where the PM is in isolation but not tested is untenable, frankly.



Is it really any more untenable than not testing anyone who's displaying Covid-19 symptoms? If anything, this highlights just how hopeless our testing policy is. Without meaningful testing, there's no way of tracking the epidemic which means that there's no way to gauge if the measures we're taking are having an effect. It means we can't track down contacts and get those who're asymptomatic (but are still infectious) into isolation. It means the only way of assessing what's happening is to look at the hospital admissions or death rates - that has a 2-3 week lag so our strategy is always lagging behind the reality. This is costing lives.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Horrific. But I think Spain is sadly about to overtake Italy in largest daily death toll. New York State is not looking good in about a week's time.
> 
> 541 deaths in a day in a region of ten million people.



For weeks now I've been saying this is coming, and that the exponential rise means it will be unbelievably fast when it hits. And I've been increasingly frustrated that society and government haven't reacted to the warning from Italy in particular. 

But experiencing it now is still a massive shock.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> Is it really any more untenable than not testing anyone who's displaying Covid-19 symptoms? If anything, this highlights just how hopeless our testing policy is. Without meaningful testing, there's no way of tracking the epidemic which means that there's no way to gauge if the measures we're taking are having an effect. It means we can't track down contacts and get those who're asymptomatic (but are still infectious) into isolation. It means the only way of assessing what's happening is to look at the hospital admissions or death rates - that has a 2-3 week lag so our strategy is always lagging behind the reality. This is costing lives.



The UK has said it's made progress on the antigen for a test kit today. They are just still being extremely vague and cagey about it. 

The antibody stuff isn't really any more details than the last 2-3 days.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> Is it really any more untenable than not testing anyone who's displaying Covid-19 symptoms? If anything, this highlights just how hopeless our testing policy is. Without meaningful testing, there's no way of tracking the epidemic which means that there's no way to gauge if the measures we're taking are having an effect. It means we can't track down contacts and get those who're asymptomatic (but are still infectious) into isolation. It means the only way of assessing what's happening is to look at the hospital admissions or death rates - that has a 2-3 week lag so our strategy is always lagging behind the reality. This is costing lives.



I agree. But I still think we need to know if the pm has it.


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> For weeks now I've been saying this is coming, and that the exponential rise means it will be unbelievably fast when it hits. And I've been increasingly frustrated that society and government haven't reacted to the warning from Italy in particular.
> 
> But experiencing it now is still a massive shock.



I agree. I think UK society has been a lot smarter than UK government. Still not enough, especially in the week before Monday where social distancing came in and was slowly applied. Scarily enough, that still seems a lot better than 2 other countries.


----------



## tom73 (27 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> It was a horrible sight on the telly seeing 40 ft refrigerated trailers parked up by New York hospitals to be used as temporary mortuary’s,
> Jesus, What next ,



Well we've just started to build a temporary mortuary able to take 1,500 min using part of Birmingham airport.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> Is it really any more untenable than not testing anyone who's displaying Covid-19 symptoms? If anything, this highlights just how hopeless our testing policy is. Without meaningful testing, there's no way of tracking the epidemic which means that there's no way to gauge if the measures we're taking are having an effect. It means we can't track down contacts and get those who're asymptomatic (but are still infectious) into isolation. It means the only way of assessing what's happening is to look at the hospital admissions or death rates - that has a 2-3 week lag so our strategy is always lagging behind the reality. This is costing lives.


 Yet - staggeringly the move from contain to delay actually reduced the testing - it might have been a forced decision true - but that seems a bad move now.
Nobody has the answers - but Johnson and co have made some poor calls IMO. Whilst I don't know the finer points - being outside the EU ventilators programme could be the biggest.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The UK has said it's made progress on the antigen for a test kit today. They are just still being extremely vague and cagey about it.
> 
> The antibody stuff isn't really any more details than the last 2-3 days.


I'm confused here - what's now being called the antigen test - is in fact the test for the live virus.

The 15 minute test - that was going to be widely available (to test if you have had cov 19) seems to have dropped off a cliff.


----------



## ozboz (27 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Well we've just started to build a temporary mortuary able to take 1,500 min using part of Birmingham airport.


A temporary mortuary is an awful thing, but to put people on a vehicle built for carting animal carcasses around in is a bit to near to the old saying “being treated like cattle”


----------



## marinyork (27 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I'm confused here - what's now being called the antigen test - is in fact the test for the live virus.
> 
> The 15 minute test - that was going to be widely available (to test if you have had cov 19) seems to have dropped off a cliff.



The government calls them antigen tests along with other similar implementations which are also antigen tests (I think they think people are morons and would raise an eyebrow at anyone calling them that tbh). The media generally doesn't. I tend to refer to them as PCR (or other techs) as do some bits of the media.

Both techs antigen and antibody test kits are being worked on. The government haven't been terribly clear on the antigen test, which has led to some confusion of some posters (depending on which edition of newsnight you watch or which day you tune into the news).

I'm far, far, far more sceptical about the antigen kits than others here. Others are far more sceptical about the antibody tests. I'm sceptical about the antigen kits as it's something the government have intermittently mentioned for a very, very, very long time now and apparently not too much progress made on. The antibody kits on the other hand have been something mentioned much more recently (last three weeks), been poo pooed on and appear to have made some substantial progress (if not fully implementable yet). Vallance is the one that tends to bang on about the antigen tech (although he doesn't directly say this sometimes) - not sure why.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> The government calls them antigen tests along with other similar implementations which are also antigen tests (I think they think people are morons and would raise an eyebrow at anyone calling them that tbh). The media generally doesn't. I tend to refer to them as PCR (or other techs) as do some bits of the media.
> 
> Both techs antigen and antibody test kits are being worked on. The government haven't been terribly clear on the antigen test, which has led to some confusion of some posters (depending on which edition of newsnight you watch or which day you tune into the news).
> 
> I'm far, far, far more sceptical about the antigen kits than others here. Others are far more sceptical about the antibody tests. I'm sceptical about the antigen kits as it's something the government have intermittently mentioned for a very, very, very long time now and apparently not too much progress made on. The antibody kits on the other hand have been something mentioned much more recently (last three weeks), been poo pooed on and appear to have made some substantial progress (if not fully implementable yet). Vallance is the one that tends to bang on about the antigen tech (although he doesn't directly say this sometimes) - not sure why.


But PCR is what they have being doing all along isn't it ? - but as from tommorow they are called anti gen tests ? - is that correct ?


----------



## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> But PCR is what they have being doing all along isn't it ? - but as from tommorow they are called anti gen tests ? - is that correct ?



PCR is a very well used technique cleverly adapted by a Chinese Lab in January to invent a test for Covid-19. Before then, there wasn't one. Yes been doing all along.

This diagram below is from a lab company (Biopanda reagents) that developed an antibody test and have almost certainly had some bought by the UK government and being tested.







Obviously the frigging antibody test doesn't work very well/at all in the first 3/5/7 days (depending on who you ask). What isn't said is that PCR doesn't work so well later on and various makers of the antibody tests say their tests work better then, so complement. Unfortunately this is lost and another poster got quite angry about this the other day skim reading the thread (which is easy to do). You might well say that a company would say that, except in the rare technical discussions on the tv the same thing's been said. I was a bit disappointed that Witty didn't have the gumption to say yesterday direct, we've been communicating with or spying on the spanish and their test kits they bought some came out at 30%, so guys this is terrible so we're just going over our own UK test kits to see how they do.

PCR
advantages:-
can pick up the virus early

disadvantages:-
worldwide shortage of materials
numerous other countries the same
have to take swabs that are technically hard to do (see above)
have to be driven to a lab (there aren't many)
done in batches
wait of 4-24 hours
is alleged to not be so good in the latter stages (which arguably with our joke testing regime is relevant)

So as you can see, there are many disadvantages from PCR. If you have a mobile PCR or some other antigen kit and not shortage of bits then this gets rid of most of the disadvantages!





It's not a one or the other. An antibody test would be extremely useful. I want the UK government to make massive strides with an 'antigen' kit. I'm just sceptical.


----------



## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> You and I know Gove hasn't got a clue regarding number infected - how can he, given only those who are serious enough to be admitted into hospitals are tested? c7000 tests a day is only around 5 tests per hospital a day in the country!
> 
> Number of deaths, on the other hand, has to be more reliable, although apparently those who die at home with symptoms have not been counted. As we all can see below, total fatalities recorded have definitely been doubling every two to three days.



Someone locally said that we were ten days behind london. When they've discussed this before they've said that it's been based on hospital admissions, ICU and a few other things. Although that can change rapidly as happened with the London hospitals last week and a huge surge of deaths over a 3 day period. In theory the hospital gives you an idea of what's going on a week to two weeks ahead of the deaths. We don't have access to the figures.


----------



## snorri (28 Mar 2020)

Some form of testing kit due to arrive from South Korea next week.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52068752


----------



## Blue Hills (28 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We are so much in the dark - you would think deaths would be a solid stat - but now it seems only in hospital deaths are counted.


You mean in italy or here?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (28 Mar 2020)

This may be of interest:


View: https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712



View: https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243611102346428416


----------



## winjim (28 Mar 2020)

Worth reading this piece in the Lancet.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltext


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## Blue Hills (28 Mar 2020)

thanks for this @winjim - will read.

i note that it is available to all as a PDF download - no sign in or paywall - is there a reason for this?


----------



## winjim (28 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> thanks for this @winjim - will read.
> 
> i note that it is available to all as a PDF download - no sign in or paywall - is there a reason for this?


I think the Lancet, and possibly other journals as well, are making all their coronavirus coverage free to access in the public interest.


----------



## Mugshot (28 Mar 2020)

Wishing Chris Whitty all the best, but it may be worth a pause to consider why, if indeed it is the case, the role of experts needs restoring.


View: https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1243593488496766984?s=20


----------



## Blue Hills (28 Mar 2020)

winjim said:


> I think the Lancet, and possibly other journals as well, are making all their coronavirus coverage free to access in the public interest.


Read it.
Horrifying in its implications going forward.

But on the blame thing found this:

https://reaction.life/coronavirus-prophet-richard-horton-is-at-it-again/

Haven't had time to check its credentials.

On the contact tracing, wouldn't things have very very rapidly gone beyond the point where it was at all practicable?

I also have the idea that the virus may have been around here significantly before the first reported cases.


----------



## Pale Rider (28 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Haven't had time to check its credentials.



The article quotes published and date stamped remarks by Horton, which cannot be sensibly challenged.

What they show is, like the government, he didn't see it, or at least the scale of it, coming.

Which is fine, few people did.

Horton's most recent remarks have an air of hindsight and good old fashioned Soviet revisionism about them.

I'm not surprised to see one of the professions closing ranks and blaming the government when something goes wrong.

Lawyers tend to do the same.


----------



## winjim (28 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Read it.
> Horrifying in its implications going forward.
> 
> But on the blame thing found this:
> ...


I personally think contact tracing would only have been useful in conjunction with a quarantine / lockdown, but we seem to have had neither for such a long time. As for knowing about it at the end of Jan, I don't know about that but we certainly had an idea by the beginning of March and still nothing was being done.

Anyway, regardless of what we knew about this specific pandemic, we've always known that there would be one, we just obviously couldn't predict the specifics. So there should already be a plan, both political and clinical, we should have things like PPE, this shouldn't have come as a surprise. Every hospital in the country has a major incident plan that they can put into action at a moment's notice, there should have been a national pandemic plan.


----------



## Edwardoka (28 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> This may be of interest:
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712
> ...



I've read his thread several times and am struggling to come to any conclusions.

We already know that the following factors contributed heavily to the initial spread beyond Hubei:
- China's government suppression of information that made them look bad (see Li Wenliang as a prime example)
- information that was coming out was contradictory
- the WHO took PRC info at face value

I do not think that is in dispute.

Personally, I don't think his timeline is as exonerating as he thinks: there's an 18 day gap in the timeline between 3rd and 21st February, where it went from "we might need to implement social distancing" to "the risk assessment for the UK population was still moderate, although there was now a push for it to be moved to high".

This was the same day that 16 new cases were confirmed in Lombardy and the first lockdowns started.
2 days later, all of northern Italy was in lockdown mode.
Why was it still at moderate??? Why weren't we mobilising?

The "Take it on the chin" was 5th March - 11 days after Northern Italy was in lockdown.
The Cheltenham Festival was the 10th-13th.
Pub closures were announced *in advance* on the 20th, leading to a lot of people going out on the swally while they still could.

It was inevitable that it would come here given two traits of the virus: that it is highly contagious and that a significant proportion of people can be carriers without developing any symptoms.

However, an island nation with decent border control infrastructure and advance warning has no excuse for this running away from them.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (28 Mar 2020)

The Cheltenham Festival was, even at the time, extraordinarily stupid. Also big concerts by Stereophonics and someone else I can't remember - 10s of thousands of people in enclosed spaces. The pub thing - weren't they asked to close "as soon as is practicable"? I know the chain my nephew works in around Edinburgh closed their doors at 7pm - were there others that behaved sensibly? Must have been.

Maybe one mistake has been treating people like adults when a significant proportion are (and continue to be) stupid, selfish sods.


----------



## Rezillo (28 Mar 2020)

That article is being a bit misleadingly selective in its quotation of Horton's editorial but to some extent, it has a point. Perhaps the Lancet was guilty of assuming that the data pouring out of China once they relaxed information controls was being acted upon and didn't need panic headlines for a largely professional readership. The data certainly scared me and I've been out of the game (at a very junior level) for years.

Not the time for blame games, though; that can come later.


----------



## Pale Rider (28 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The pub thing - weren't they asked to close "as soon as is practicable"?



Boris announced the pub closures on a Friday tea time with a plea for us all not to go out on a last session.

The regulation didn't come into force until 2pm on Saturday, which also explains reports of some pubs being open that lunchtime.

I suppose there's no seamless way to introduce an emergency measure, so the introduction of this one went as well as could be expected.


----------



## Edwardoka (28 Mar 2020)

I had to self-isolate from Twitter last night after reading some of the dreck being thrown around about Horton.
Yes, he said those things in the last week of January, it was his best guess based upon the information he had.

You can tell the difference between a proper scientist and someone using the image of science to push an agenda: as new information comes in, a scientist's position will change.


----------



## Edwardoka (28 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Boris announced the pub closures on a Friday tea time with a plea for us all not to go out on a last session.
> 
> The regulation didn't come into force until 2pm on Saturday, which also explains reports of some pubs being open that lunchtime.
> 
> I suppose there's no seamless way to introduce an emergency measure, so the introduction of this one went as well as could be expected.


I tend towards authoritarianism so let me have a go:

"My fellow hu-mans, it gives me no pleasure to announce this, but in order to combat the spread of a deadly disease, I must inform you that all pubs, cafes and restaurants are to be closed with immediate effect. You may follow standard last orders procedure, but no new customers are to be served. Anyone found to be in contravention of this decree will have their licences permanently revoked.

Best wishes,
Kang and Kodos
Boris"


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Maybe one mistake has been treating people like adults when a significant proportion are (and continue to be) stupid, selfish sods.



this statement is unfortunately very true, in the future we need to have a pandemic plan, and due to many’s selfish ways people need to be treated as kids.


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> I tend towards authoritarianism so let me have a go:
> 
> "My fellow hu-mans, it gives me no pleasure to announce this, but in order to combat the spread of a deadly disease, I must inform you that all pubs, cafes and restaurants are to be closed with immediate effect. You may follow standard last orders procedure, but no new customers are to be served. Anyone found to be in contravention of this decree will have their licences permanently revoked.
> 
> ...



the next day I went for a cycle ride and saw so many rural pubs serving lunch to customers it was totally irresponsible, if they had made that statement above and actually punished some rule breakers then it would serve as a warning.


----------



## Fab Foodie (28 Mar 2020)

Ireland now in lockdown.....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sh-in-drastic-lockdown?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


----------



## Pale Rider (28 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> as new information comes in, a scientist's position will change.



That's fine, but plenty of people criticised the government for not knowing what it was doing and running around like a headless chicken when its position changed in response to what was a fast moving situation.

Seems to be one set of judgment criteria for one and a different set for the other.

The pub closures could have been introduced in other ways, but I imagine Boris was hoping for a swift, but orderly, taper from open to shut.

Did that not happen in most locations?

There's also the legal practicalities of making such an order.

'Getting it done' by 2pm the next day was swift work in a sphere not known for its speed of action.


----------



## johnnyb47 (28 Mar 2020)

That made me laugh on the BBC news. 
Trump was there signing his 1.7 trillion dollar bill with all his cronies standing around him, The general message by the governments is for self distancing, but these guys were almost rubbing shoulders with each other 🤔


----------



## Fab Foodie (28 Mar 2020)




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## Mike_P (28 Mar 2020)

Pleased to say Waitrose today had the guy controlling access disinfecting trolley handles as he passed each to a customer. Frozen stock still hit and miss, no chips bar french fries and still none of the single malts that are on offer on the web site


----------



## winjim (28 Mar 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> That made me laugh on the BBC news.
> Trump was there signing his 1.7 trillion dollar bill with all his cronies standing around him, The general message by the governments is for self distancing, but these guys were almost rubbing shoulders with each other 🤔


Almost? He's passing out the virus like party bags at a kid's birthday. This is on purpose, it has to be.


View: https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1243816885390643200?s=19


----------



## kingrollo (28 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> I tend towards authoritarianism so let me have a go:
> 
> "My fellow hu-mans, it gives me no pleasure to announce this, but in order to combat the spread of a deadly disease, I must inform you that all pubs, cafes and restaurants are to be closed with immediate effect. You may follow standard last orders procedure, but no new customers are to be served. Anyone found to be in contravention of this decree will have their licences permanently revoked.
> 
> ...


Self regulation is in their DNA mate. They will never change.


----------



## PK99 (28 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> There's also the* legal practicalities* of making such an order.



Was discussing this with a friend the other day - retired Senior Civil Servant and government Lawyer, still active in the Inns of court

The nature of our parliamentary system, in contrast to the Presidential systems elsewhere, makes some actions and controls difficult and different ..
What some countries can execute by Presidential decree, takes hundreds of pages of legal drafting


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## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> What some countries can execute by Presidential decree, takes hundreds of pages of legal drafting



The westminster system doesn't really suit crises.

The MPs like their jollies and their weekends (and their Fridays for that matter). Numerous times over the decades has been the 'shall we recall parliament' in the summer and nah we'll do it next week to various other important bits of legislation. The nah we'll do it next week has happened in this crisis, which is not to say that it still wouldn't have taken a long time, rather appreciating it would and got a headstart.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (28 Mar 2020)

Sobering reading 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html


----------



## tom73 (28 Mar 2020)

We than have the added party political games which makes any idea of cooperating beyond the mind set of any party. 
How we deal with stuff like pandemics is not the only thing that needs to change.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (28 Mar 2020)

From the Beeb today - interesting reading:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Mar 2020)

Continued awful, grim progression of this pestilence. From the Graun:

*Spain has recorded a record single-day death toll* for the second day in succession after 832 people died between Friday and Saturday, the Guardian’s Madrid correspondent,*Sam Jones*


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Mar 2020)

winjim said:


> Almost? He's passing out the virus like party bags at a kid's birthday. This is on purpose, it has to be.
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1243816885390643200?s=19




That really is the most cretinous, imbecilic, astonishingly, mind numbingly asinine behaviour. 

My thesaurus has imploded into a vortex of doom attempting to find the adjectives it deserves.


----------



## ozboz (28 Mar 2020)

Just watching sky news , interestly they mentioned that the set up of these regional temporary hospitals are being setup and fitted out with advice from the Military , I wager these Military Personnel have extensive knowledge of aftermath recovery in Nuclear and Biological Warfare for the mass of the population ,


----------



## Pat "5mph" (28 Mar 2020)

Angela Merkel just addressed Germany via podcast: what an excellent speech! Sadly I can't find a link to a translation in English yet.


----------



## tom73 (28 Mar 2020)

Or because they have vast experience of building felid hospitals quickly and practical. As they have for a long time and in more resent times in counties dealing with mass outbreaks. 
The NHS maybe many things but it has no practical knowing of how to build stuff quickly.


----------



## winjim (28 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> That really is the most cretinous, imbecilic, astonishingly, mind numbingly asinine behaviour.
> 
> My thesaurus has imploded into a vortex of doom attempting to find the adjectives it deserves.


To my mind it can only be a deliberate move to try and demonstrate that there's nothing to worry about. Like Johnson shaking hands or John Gummer's daughter's beefburger.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (28 Mar 2020)

Coronavirus comparison with Swine Flu pandemic for those interested:

https://theconversation.com/coronav...ic-can-tell-us-about-the-weeks-to-come-134076


----------



## rualexander (28 Mar 2020)

Interesting statistical analysis of 775 patients admitted to critical care in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland up to 26th March.

70% have bmi classed as overweight, >25
70% are male (not necessarily same 70% of course)
Etc.

Also compares data to non covid 19 admissions from viral pneumonia between 2017 and 2019.

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (28 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Boris announced the pub closures on a Friday tea time with a plea for us all not to go out on a last session.
> 
> The regulation didn't come into force until 2pm on Saturday, which also explains reports of some pubs being open that lunchtime.
> 
> I suppose there's no seamless way to introduce an emergency measure, so the introduction of this one went as well as could be expected.


And I went out for my last drink the Sunday before, thinking it had to be the last night that pubs would be open. I couldn't believe how slack and slow the leadership were to act.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (28 Mar 2020)

Boris also vaguely rambled on about the over 70s being asked to stay in for a month, at some unspecified time in the future. No surprise that the next morning the supermarket was full of older people getting their month of shopping looking very worried indeed, because they had no idea when it would be or how much notice they would get.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (28 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> Just watching sky news , interestly they mentioned that the set up of these regional temporary hospitals are being setup and fitted out with advice from the Military , I wager these Military Personnel have extensive knowledge of aftermath recovery in Nuclear and Biological Warfare for the mass of the population ,



Meanwhile, the NHS seeked out a fetish / kink outfit supplier for their stock of PPE...



View: https://twitter.com/MedFet_UK/status/1243590308878848002?s=19


----------



## mjr (28 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Was discussing this with a friend the other day - retired Senior Civil Servant and government Lawyer, still active in the Inns of court
> 
> The nature of our parliamentary system, in contrast to the Presidential systems elsewhere, makes some actions and controls difficult and different ..
> What some countries can execute by Presidential decree, takes hundreds of pages of legal drafting


Still, don't go on an urgent multi-channel broadcast to announce pubs are shutting 18 hours before you've the power to shut them. Do it after, unless you want fools to pack pubs and spread infection so you can use them as cannon fodder for the virus before important government officials catch it...


----------



## kingrollo (28 Mar 2020)

Marks out of 10 for Boris so far then ?

Very kindly 5/10

We seen what was happening in Italy - and just stumbled to the same outcome 260 UK dead today. We will overtake Italy soon IMO.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (28 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Marks out of 10 for Boris so far then ?
> 
> Very kindly 5/10
> 
> We seen what was happening in Italy - and just stumbled to the same outcome 260 UK dead today. We will overtake Italy soon IMO.


Seems you’re out of step with the public.


> Number Cruncher polling (excusive to Bloomberg) finds personal ratings for Boris Johnson -- himself now diagnosed with coronavirus -- that have not been seen for a British Prime Minister since the early days of Tony Blair’s premiership in 1997. Fully 72% of eligible voters are satisfied with Johnson’s performance as Prime Minister, with 25% dissatisfied.


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...irus-gives-boris-johnson-s-political-immunity


----------



## kingrollo (28 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Seems you’re out of step with the public.
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...irus-gives-boris-johnson-s-political-immunity


The question was your rating for Boris - not whether that score would align to an opinion poll.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (28 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Seems you’re out of step with the public.
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...irus-gives-boris-johnson-s-political-immunity



I think he is doing ok and most people I have spoken too think the same tbh.


----------



## winjim (28 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think he is doing ok and most people I have spoken too think the same tbh.


You know what I think.


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Mar 2020)

What people fail to grasp is whatever choices Boris makes means people will die, he has to live with that.

unprecedented circumstances we’re in, I don’t envy anyone in government at the moment.


----------



## the snail (28 Mar 2020)

winjim said:


> You know what I think.


Yeah, a lot of people are clearly easily impressed. Exactly how much of a medical expert do you need to be to realise that washing your hands _before_ shaking the hands of people with a infectious disease is not an effective strategy?


----------



## kingrollo (28 Mar 2020)

the snail said:


> Yeah, a lot of people are clearly easily impressed. Exactly how much of a medical expert do you need to be to realise that washing your hands _before_ shaking the hands of people with a infectious disease is not an effective strategy?


Or watching the events unfold in Italy - and act to slowly (despite numerous warnings) to prevent a replica here. 
We will be up to 1200 a day in just over a week


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Mar 2020)

260 deaths in uk just announced. Now over 1,000 total, 34% rise.

Very bad news, and further emphasises the wrong strategy was followed and we failed to act on the warning from Italy.

#staythefarkhome


----------



## Low Gear Guy (28 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think he is doing ok and most people I have spoken too think the same tbh.


I will reserve judgement until the outbreak is over. If the total of fatalities is greater than Italy he will not be judged kindly by history.


----------



## winjim (28 Mar 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> I will reserve judgement until the outbreak is over. If the total of fatalities is greater than Italy he will not be judged kindly by history.


We should not use what appears to be the worst case scenario as our reference. Italy especially was rather taken by surprise, the UK does not have that excuse. We should look at all similarly developed Western European countries, maybe even excluding Italy.


----------



## tom73 (28 Mar 2020)

North Yorkshire police stoped a driver @4am from West Yorkshire made out he was picking up a mate from the university of Whitby.
Nice try mate


----------



## Rocky (28 Mar 2020)

Hot hubs are being widely discussed by the medical profession - they are a sort of halfway house between general practice and A&E for people with Covid symptoms.

The Prof who is a great Twitter user sought to get an online debate about their merits by using the hashtag #hothubs

Unfortunately it was already in use and she has been inundated with messages from women sending pictures of their muscle bound husbands.............moral of the story, choose your hashtag carefully.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (28 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> 260 deaths in uk just announced. Now over 1,000 total, 34% rise.
> 
> Very bad news, and further emphasises *the wrong strategy was followed and we failed to act on the warning from Italy.*
> 
> #staythefarkhome



+1. Imho the blame for the appalling strategy should also rest on the shoulders of the CMO and CSA, and with the majority of voters happy to trust a bunch of morons who tell them unicorns exist and us Brits are exceptional, what could possibly go wrong?

Today's figures also show the number of people tested has fallen, to 6999 from 8911 the previous day, while % positive increased to 36% from 32%. What happened to the 10,000 test kits at day as promised?


----------



## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Today's figures also show the number of people tested has fallen, to 6999 from 8911 the previous day, while % positive increased to 36% from 32%. What happened to the 10,000 test kits at day as promised?



We're now a day or two behind Italy in testing, arguably. Having had that lead on testing totally evapourate before our eyes.

Italy had started doing about 13,000 tests a day which fluctuated, going downwards sometimes but generally an upward trend, when they were on the day 196 new deaths a day and 827 deaths in total was announced. This 'spare change' number of tests, the difference between the two countries would make a real difference to workers. 

The only light at the end of the tunnel is if the stuff Valance says about mobile PCR or kits is true. Or more likely if antibody tests start to mean less fumbling around in the dark. The antibody one is particularly annoying because it will clear bits of the population and they won't test positive for having had the virus if this faffing keeps on going. You could have key workers having had the virus and have immunity and for the next six months they'll be constantly watching themselves not knowing as they had the antibody test too late (after around 33-35 days of being infected).


----------



## Edwardoka (28 Mar 2020)

The director of the NHS England (i think that was his title) just said that if the UK has fewer than 20,000 deaths we will have done very well.
I mean, that's on the same order of magnitude that's been postulated around these parts for a while now, but to actually hear it during a press conference is sobering indeed.


----------



## wafter (28 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Marks out of 10 for Boris so far then ?
> 
> Very kindly 5/10
> 
> We seen what was happening in Italy - and just stumbled to the same outcome 260 UK dead today. We will overtake Italy soon IMO.


I was going to pull you up on the Italy analogy and state that while the number of infected cases are growing at a similar rate and the spread in the UK continues to mirror Italy's with a 14-16 day offset, we're experiencing nowhere near the amount of deaths that Italy are. 

Checking the numbers revealed how wrong I was - according to public health England we're now on 17089 confirmed cases and 1019 deaths, for an "instantaneous" mortality rate of around 6%. The closest figure from Italy (according to Wikipedia) was from the 13th (so 15 days ago) with 17660 confirmed cases and 1266 dead, for an instantaneous mortality rate of around 7%. 

So we're faring a little better than the Italians, but just barely.. and they apparently implemented "lockdown" procedures (at least in part) earlier than we did. It's also worth remembering that Italy's population is far older than ours (and hence higher-risk) so in corrected terms we're on course to come out worse than Italy is. 

This is an enormous, disgusting failure on the part of the British government - firstly through decades of de-funding, privatisation and marginalisation of the NHS, and secondly through the current government's shamefully slow action despite having a two-week preview of what was to come from Italy.

Boiled down to the fundamentals the measures taken by any government are, IMO, a case of citizen welfare versus the economy. You can see the different attitudes in this regard reflected around the globe; with Trump's denial and promise to get everyone back to work the most scathing example of profit over lives (along with the many US companies still forcing their employees to work), with our government's actions unfortunately not far behind.

As much of a doom-monger as I am, I really didn't expect us to be seeing death figures on a par with Italy's; despite the parallels in terms of infection numbers. I fear we all have a very bleak few months ahead of us 



Johnno260 said:


> What people fail to grasp is whatever choices Boris makes means people will die, he has to live with that.


From his past behaviour I don't think it would be a stretch to suggest that Boris lacks the capacity to be affected by any number of deaths on his watch; other than his own perhaps.


----------



## tom73 (28 Mar 2020)

Next door to me is at risk so is on the 12 week lockdown. Her son lives in part time ,his GF now also lives in part time. Both are still coming and going. Now her mother who lives round the corner who also is at risk has just pulled up in her car and gone in the house. 
Nice to see all this working so well.


----------



## Edwardoka (28 Mar 2020)

wafter said:


> From his past behaviour I don't think it would be a stretch to suggest that Boris lacks the capacity to be affected by any number of deaths on his watch; other than his own perhaps.


I hope you're wrong. I don't believe he's a sociopath, he's a manipulative bastard who hides behind the persona of a bumbling fool.
I think the enormity of this will weigh very heavily on him indeed.

Trump on the other hand doesn't have the imagination or emotional intelligence required to empathise with others. I would view him as sociopathic rather than psychopathic, but either way he has zero capacity for empathy.


----------



## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

wafter said:


> Checking the numbers revealed how wrong I was - according to public health England we're now on 17089 confirmed cases and 1019 deaths, for an "instantaneous" mortality rate of around 6%. The closest figure from Italy (according to Wikipedia) was from the 13th (so 15 days ago) with 17660 confirmed cases and 1266 dead, for an instantaneous mortality rate of around 7%.
> 
> So we're faring a little better than the Italians, but just barely.. and they apparently implemented "lockdown" procedures (at least in part) earlier than we did. It's also worth remembering that Italy's population is far older than ours (and hence higher-risk) so in corrected terms we're on course to come out worse than Italy is.



We're doing fewer tests per day than the Italians than at the same deaths were. On the other hand we have done more tests in total by quite a way (around 25-40% more than Italy) depending what day you want to make comparisons for. DCMO Dr Jenny Harries has got annoyed at this point in press conferences quite a few times. If you take the latter point and adjust, which is not what I'm recommending we do, then our death rate would be worse than Italy's! Unfortunately I don't have how many ICU coronavirus patients there are to make a more intelligent comparison.


----------



## ozboz (28 Mar 2020)

Anyone have the same thought as me about this being a scam posted today on local website?


----------



## Tanis8472 (28 Mar 2020)

my mrs received a letter today.
shez 37 yrs old but high risk.

i can continue to work but need to follow advice in the letter.

classed as key worker.


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## Edwardoka (28 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Next door to me is at risk so is on the 12 week lockdown. Her son lives in part time ,his GF now also lives in part time. Both are still coming and going. Now her mother who lives round the corner who also is at risk has just pulled up in her car and gone in the house.
> Nice to see all this working so well.


AGRGRGHRGHRGHRGH
What is wrong with people, how can they not get it through their thick skulls?!


----------



## Mike_P (28 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> AGRGRGHRGHRGHRGH
> What is wrong with people, how can they not get it through their thick skulls?!


No lack of candidates for this years Darwin Awards.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (28 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> AGRGRGHRGHRGHRGH
> What is wrong with people, how can they not get it through their thick skulls?!



Darwinism at work


----------



## Edwardoka (28 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> View attachment 511061
> 
> 
> Anyone have the same thought as me about this being a scam posted today on local website?


They may very well be selling something that qualifies as hand sanitiser but I'm pretty sure everyone and their pet capybara Jeffrey knows by now that soap and thorough hand-washing are far more effective than hand sanitiser. And would you want to rub your hands with a mystery concoction that contains unknown ingredients you bought off some rando online?

"If you mix snake oil, _sodium hypochlorite _and _hydrochloric acid*_ you get a compound that is guaranteed to kill coronavirus! It so happens that I have some here, but stocks are running out! £3 a bottle!"

** DO NOT DO THIS*


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Mar 2020)

Thing is with these fabled home kits, they need to be fool proof, if they ship and aren’t accurate then that could create a huge problem, people could think they’re immune and they may not be.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Mar 2020)

On the comparison with Italy...






It's grim.


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## Tanis8472 (28 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Not lack of candidates for this years Darwin Awards.


unfortunately they take with them the rest of us


----------



## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Thing is with these fabled home kits, they need to be fool proof, if they ship and aren’t accurate then that could create a huge problem, people could think they’re immune and they may not be.



Do they? Why do you think that?

It's a balancing act. Obviously if the test is only around a quarter or a third then that's no better than chance and complete junk as the case the spanish had (although the bad batch seems to be smaller and small nos now). If the test was 80% accurate which is what Spain wants that would be a gigantic leap forward.

Sickness rates at many employers are 25 or 30%. An 80% antibody test kit, or better still a so called antigen one would be awesome. As long as you use medical and common sense for those testing negative for people with symptoms alongside the test.

People still need to behave in exactly the same way taking broadly the same precautions even if they think they are immune.


----------



## nickyboy (28 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Darwinism at work


It's all very well saying it's Darwinism at work (ie stupid people who don't follow the instructions are more likely to die). The issue is that person will block up an ICU bed and ventilator and may result in someone else not getting the care they need


----------



## Ming the Merciless (28 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> It's all very well saying it's Darwinism at work (ie stupid people who don't follow the instructions are more likely to die). The issue is that person will block up an ICU bed and ventilator and may result in someone else not getting the care they need



You are stating the bleeding obvious. But what is the solution to deal with this behaviour?


----------



## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> You are stating the bleeding obvious. But what is the solution to deal with this behaviour?



It'll settle down when the deaths are 300 or 400 a day. Of course that doesn't help London, the west midlands, hampshire, bits of wales, glasgow, hertfordshire but may have an impact on other areas.


----------



## wafter (28 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> I hope you're wrong. I don't believe he's a sociopath, he's a manipulative bastard who hides behind the persona of a bumbling fool.
> I think the enormity of this will weigh very heavily on him indeed.
> 
> Trump on the other hand doesn't have the imagination or emotional intelligence required to empathise with others. I would view him as sociopathic rather than psychopathic, but either way he has zero capacity for empathy.


Well, for our sake so do I.

I totally agree that the "affable baffoon" is a largely constructed persona to hide his true focussed and self-serving Machiavellian intentions; I guess from where we're standing it's anyone's guess how deep that hole goes.

Regardless these are not desirable traits to have in a leader (from a citizen's perspective) and personally I think he's an extremely dangerous individual; a wolf in sheep's clothing and not at all to be trusted.

I would label Trump a psychopath, however I think psycopathy is often characterised by high intelligence... which would apparently rule him out.

EDIT: Apparently that's a myth about psycopathy and intelligence, so yeah - maybe he is a psycho. Either way he's an comically-narcissistic scumbag of the highest order..



marinyork said:


> We're doing fewer tests per day than the Italians than at the same deaths were. On the other hand we have done more tests in total by quite a way (around 25-40% more than Italy) depending what day you want to make comparisons for. DCMO Dr Jenny Harries has got annoyed at this point in press conferences quite a few times. If you take the latter point and adjust, which is not what I'm recommending we do, then our death rate would be worse than Italy's! Unfortunately I don't have how many ICU coronavirus patients there are to make a more intelligent comparison.


So it's all a bit up on the air then! Either way it's not looking to splendid is it.. I guess well all just have to hang on, do what we can and hope for the best.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (28 Mar 2020)

> Police officers in Aberdeenshire are hunting a teenager who deliberately coughed on a healthcare worker and told her she would catch coronavirus. The incident happened in Banchory at about 13:40 on Friday. The woman had been driving on the road from Inchmarlo golf course to Brathens Wood after finishing a shift when she saw someone sitting on the ground and waving to attract her attention. When she stopped, the teenager came towards her and coughed in her face. Police say he then ran off into nearby woods laughing.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-52078488

Stories like this will inflame public opinion to the point where we see support for troops patrolling the streets and curfews.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (28 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> It'll settle down when the deaths are 300 or 400 a day. Of course that doesn't help London, the west midlands, hampshire, bits of wales, glasgow, hertfordshire but may have an impact on other areas.



Surrey and lots of other counties it won’t help either. Proximity to large centres of population ,and people commuting in and mixing will have been a factor in the earlier seeding of some counties.


----------



## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

wafter said:


> So it's all a bit up on the air then! Either way it's not looking to splendid is it.. I guess well all just have to hang on, do what we can and hope for the best.



It's very up in the air. It's not even totally clear what is happening in Italy (yes, really). 889 deaths just announced today. However the variations from day to day in the regions make it difficult to gauge what's happening. What's happening outside around six regions of Italy is very relevant to large bits of the UK, and it's not clear where those regions are going at all. As testing isn't really keeping up with virus growth rates from 2-4 weeks ago, the death rates in Italy today are obviously extremely high indeed. Of course that doesn't represent reality as close as that.


----------



## MarkF (28 Mar 2020)

The hospital has gone into lockdown now, not only are visitors not allowed in but I am not allowed out at any time in my uniform. No shortage of PPE this week. What is strange though is that I have noticed that the 3 testing pods have not been used for days, whereas a couple of weeks back cars were regularly pulling up. Hospital eerily quiet, everybody just waiting.......

Not seeing any change in confirmed virus patients, the elderly & poorly, maybe things will change next week.

Be interesting to see the 19/20 report and then see what affect the virus has on the annual flu attributed deaths.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports


----------



## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Surrey and lots of other counties it won’t help either. Proximity to large centres of population ,and people commuting in and mixing will have been a factor in the earlier seeding of some counties.



Probably true. This is the worry I have about London (maybe that was already a factor for Hertfordshire as that had a cluster early on or maybe near to airports who knows), Madrid, New York. In Italy if you exclude Turin and it's not clear what's going on in Rome or Naples, then on the whole in Italy it appears that it might have just about avoided being wildly out of control in the bonkersly dense population centres. Bergamo is near Milan but it's not as dense as other places by a long way.

My point was what was said around here was that this area is 10 days behind London. Similar things will have been said elsewhere (the lucky areas) so as the deaths mount up, sadly, you'll find as in Italy people will start staying in more. Too late for many areas . Not quite too late to have a moderate impact on other areas.


----------



## Mo1959 (28 Mar 2020)

One of my concerns at the moment is how patients that are not Covid19 related are almost getting overlooked and struggling to get treatment. One of my ex-colleagues posted on Facebook last night that she was extremely concerned about her 77 year old grandfather. Not long had heart surgery and was in agony with his leg which was swollen to twice the size. She had to really struggle to get them to take it seriously and kept asking if he had breathing difficulty which he didn’t so they weren’t interested. Thankfully, she eventually managed to get him admitted by 2am and it was thrombosis. Could have been a poor outcome if they hadn’t taken him in.


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Do they? Why do you think that?
> 
> It's a balancing act. Obviously if the test is only around a quarter or a third then that's no better than chance and complete junk as the case the spanish had (although the bad batch seems to be smaller and small nos now). If the test was 80% accurate which is what Spain wants that would be a gigantic leap forward.
> 
> ...



I would’ve thought accuracy and ease of use are obvious, it means we know who are better protected and it could help with planning.


----------



## Pale Rider (28 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Seems you’re out of step with the public.
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...irus-gives-boris-johnson-s-political-immunity



I am among the 72 percent herd who think Boris and the scientists used by his government are doing pretty well.

Using the economist's theory of alternative cost, is there any reason to think having Boris at the helm has denied us a far better operator?

I doubt any other politician could do a significantly better job, and the scientists, who are not political appointments, would likely be the same.

Blaming austerity doesn't work.

Had we spent lots more money on the NHS in those years, is there anything to suggest the NHS would now be better prepared for the virus?

Quite rightly, the extra money would have been spent on giving better care to patients at the time - there would have been no lingering benefit of huge surplus capacity waiting to be deployed against a threat, the nature, scale, and timing of which could never have been predicted.

That also plays into any reforms we might wisely make after this virus is dealt with.

It's often said the army always prepares for the battle it has just fought, rather than the battle it is about to.

In other words, making ourselves better able to deal with a virus threat in future is unlikely to be of much use because the next big health emergency will be entirely different.


----------



## tom73 (28 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> AGRGRGHRGHRGHRGH
> What is wrong with people, how can they not get it through their thick skulls?!



Not the only one across the road we have a guy who still going to his dads everyday. for most of the day they even pulled up in the same car yesterday well he went and got something. His dad must be at least 70. It can't be for work he will have closed his chip shop. They most likely think they will be ok. As they don't talk to anyone as it is. But how do they know the guy GF is a hospital pharmacist. 
The guy on the other side to me went out shopping he at risk no idea why the daughter only dropped off some a few days ago.
I'd say now having had time to think about out of our bit of the street (9 homes) we've only got 4 house inc us. (ofter 3 in total lock down)
Who look to be playing by the rules. Mrs 73 is hopping mad about it.


----------



## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I would’ve thought accuracy and ease of use are obvious, it means we know who are better protected and it could help with planning.



PCR is difficult to implement to swab and ferry around to test. On ease of use for a kit, I think you are worrying too much there.

Accuracy is for a virus that we have no idea what percentage of patients have 'no' symptoms. It only helps with planning if you do it before everyone has died or on the way to dying.

Although I think there will be a 2nd wave in the winter, so it'd help fantastically with that. However that wasn't a point you made.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (28 Mar 2020)

Not wearing masks to protect against coronavirus is a "big mistake" - Head of CDC, China

"The big mistake in the U.S. and Europe, in my opinion, is that people aren’t wearing masks. This virus is transmitted by droplets and close contact. Droplets play a very important role—you’ve got to wear a mask, because when you speak, there are always droplets coming out of your mouth. Many people have asymptomatic or presymptomatic infections. If they are wearing face masks, it can prevent droplets that carry the virus from escaping and infecting others."

So the benefit is to protect others - this is interesting, because the common arguments against their use in the West are that their protection is uncertain for the wearer. 

But if it protects others, and everybody wears them, everybody gets protected, right?

I guess such an extraordinary thought was considered either unpopular, like strict isolation / lockdown, or would in any case never be followed by the free people in the West!


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> PCR is difficult to implement to swab and ferry around to test. On ease of use for a kit, I think you are worrying too much there.
> 
> Accuracy is for a virus that we have no idea what percentage of patients have 'no' symptoms. It only helps with planning if you do it before everyone has died or on the way to dying.
> 
> Although I think there will be a 2nd wave in the winter, so it'd help fantastically with that. However that wasn't a point you made.


true I didn’t make that point.
Still part of me thinks home testing is a bad idea, people may see they have had it think they can do as they please and the police have a harder time enforcing things, easier to take the assume everyone will do the dumb thing approach


----------



## kingrollo (28 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Not wearing masks to protect against coronavirus is a "big mistake" - Head of CDC, China
> 
> "The big mistake in the U.S. and Europe, in my opinion, is that people aren’t wearing masks. This virus is transmitted by droplets and close contact. Droplets play a very important role—you’ve got to wear a mask, because when you speak, there are always droplets coming out of your mouth. Many people have asymptomatic or presymptomatic infections. If they are wearing face masks, it can prevent droplets that carry the virus from escaping and infecting others."
> 
> ...



It must be spreading in a way that they hadn't previously thought - the numbers just aren't going down. Maybe masks are more useful than we thought.
......not we have enough to wear. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't become more common in future winters though.


----------



## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> true I didn’t make that point.
> Still part of me thinks home testing is a bad idea, people may see they have had it think they can do as they please and the police have a harder time enforcing things, easier to take the assume everyone will do the dumb thing approach



I agree these are massive societal level issues that don't have a clear answer and Germany has thought about them a bit, but the UK I don't think much thought's been given to them.

There are a variety of ways people might react with or without tests. Someone in their 70s or 80s (or younger) irrespective of a test might be quite fatalistic about it anyway. I don't know them that well but I have a neighbour across the road in that group who's coming and going the most of anyone on the street and that could be a factor there, or they could just be a complete muppet.


----------



## Stephenite (28 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Hot hubs are being widely discussed by the medical profession - they are a sort of halfway house between general practice and A&E for people with Covid symptoms.
> 
> The Prof who is a great Twitter user sought to get an online debate about their merits by using the hashtag #hothubs
> 
> Unfortunately it was already in use and she has been inundated with messages from women sending pictures of their muscle bound husbands.............moral of the story, choose your hashtag carefully.


Here in Oslo this week they have set up (what they call) a new polyclinic in each district. Seven polyclinics for a population of under 700,000. You need a referral from your GP or other health professional.


----------



## nickyboy (28 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> You are stating the bleeding obvious. But what is the solution to deal with this behaviour?


If you see it, call it out. Go round there. Tell them it's just not on

I've posted earlier that traditional British reserve is absolutely not what's needed now. If you see someone who has isn't following guidelines call them out. It's not so much them, it's the impact on others (as you so charmingly said this is stating the bleeding obvious)


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It must be spreading in a way that they hadn't previously thought - the numbers just aren't going down. Maybe masks are more useful than we thought.
> ......not we have enough to wear. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't become more common in future winters though.



thing is with masks good luck getting some, as for the links for them that pop up everywhere no way I’m clicking one of those and getting scammed.


----------



## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It must be spreading in a way that they hadn't previously thought - the numbers just aren't going down. Maybe masks are more useful than we thought.
> ......not we have enough to wear. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't become more common in future winters though.



As RecordAceFromNew knows
1) there aren't enough masks in the UK and these need prioritising for workers

2) Italy has an obsession with masks and wore them not as much as Singapore/China/other asian countries, but nearly as much in comparison to all other countries. Italy's mask obsession doesn't seem to have made a blind bit of difference

3) There's a lot more discussion about masks in combination with visors in the UK and the entry point of the eyes. The latter point in Italy is heavily disputed they think wearing visors is totally nuts, get your frigging mask on and stop listening to eejits.

It's not disputed that someone wearing a mask in very close proximity can help someone else stop getting it i.e. an infected person reducing chance of passing it on to someone else.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (28 Mar 2020)

The doctor's dilemma - by Henry Marsh is well worth a read, I would suggest.

As usual, readers' comments to articles like the above are often just as interesting and informative. I have included three from medical professionals below:

1. Working as one of the medical SpR’s [Special Registrar] in a London hospital this article resonates although does not fully capture the crisis which is evolving. As an example, we have reached maximum capacity for the amount of oxygen that we are able to deliver (yes, that is a thing). 

2. All admissions are seen and triaged by a senior consultant and the only criteria by which patients are judged as to whether or not someone is suitable for intensive care and ventilation is the absence of frailty. Age has nothing to do with it other than the fact that frailty is a common feature of the elderly. 

3. Politicians are crying out for ventilators. New York’s mayor is asking for 30000 of them if I recall it right. This people think that ventilators will save the people. Ventilators without skilled healthcare providers are useless dead machines. What a clownshow!
To “fly” a patient on a ventilator, at least, 1.5 intensive care nurse (1 nurse per two patients per shift*3 shifts), 0.2 resident medical officer and 0.1 consultant intensivist/anesthesiologist is needed. That would mean the good mayor needs 45000 ICU nurses, 6000 resident medical officers and 3000 consultant intensivists/anesthesiologists.
Good luck with that Mr. Mayor.
The number of resident medical officers and consultants needs to be multiplied by three for three shift, which I missed.
that would mean 18000 resident medical officers and 9000 consultants would be needed for New York.


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## Johnno260 (28 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> If you see it, call it out. Go round there. Tell them it's just not on
> 
> I've posted earlier that traditional British reserve is absolutely not what's needed now. If you see someone who has isn't following guidelines call them out. It's not so much them, it's the impact on others (as you so charmingly said this is stating the bleeding obvious)



calling people out has issues, getting punched or spat at isn’t a great thing with present circumstances.

I had someone go to spit at me after they almost hit my car, they were speeding and almost smashed into me as I entered my driveway, I’m ashamed to say the red mist descended and they swiftly got in their car.


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## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> If you see it, call it out. Go round there. Tell them it's just not on
> 
> I've posted earlier that traditional British reserve is absolutely not what's needed now. If you see someone who has isn't following guidelines call them out. It's not so much them, it's the impact on others (as you so charmingly said this is stating the bleeding obvious)



British reserve is but one facet of how people behave.

Farqing grumpy and crotchety to people face to face and moaning and complaining is another common British trait. The problem is some people are nasty judgemental feckers, a lot of the time when someone 'calls' someone out, they are going for the low hanging fruit. They are complaining to someone whose behaviour is probably marginal and the person knows that their social distancing and whatnot has already improved. The ones supposedly calling it out aren't daft, they know if they do it to the ones that aren't soft that are behaving much worse they'll have a brick through their window or visitation.

Unfortunately/fortunately most people aren't the captain kirk types on here and out there that like a bit of rufty tufty with phasers shoot to kill.


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## Pale Rider (28 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> One of my concerns at the moment is how patients that are not Covid19 related are almost getting overlooked and struggling to get treatment.



I can confirm this is happening.

My next appointment with my consultant on Monday was cancelled yesterday.

No indication of what the alternative will be, but there has been gossip of a telephone consultation.

In a general 'Dear Patient' letter, which I assume has gone out to everyone having recurring hospital treatment, I have been told the hospital will not be able to provide the current level of treatment until the virus is dealt with.

There's never a good time to be ill, but now is a very bad time.


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## marinyork (28 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I can confirm this is happening.
> 
> My next appointment with my consultant on Monday was cancelled yesterday.



I know of someone who was due an operation Friday 20th and it was cancelled on Friday 20th. The reason for the last minute cancellation that might seem blindingly obvious was they were hoping of an available high dependency bed still being available for 2-3 days. The situation here isn't believed to be as grave as some other cities, so was basically hoped that'd it be there. It wasn't .


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## Unkraut (28 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Had we spent lots more money on the NHS in those years, is there anything to suggest the NHS would now be better prepared for the virus?


Not automatically, but more than likely. It would depend if the management were wise in spending extra cash.

With apologies, but one of the reasons the herd immunity process was criticised so strongly here on the continent was because the British healthcare system is described as _marode_. Three different reports have used the same word. This means ailing, ramshackle, dilapidated, shabby - depending on context. Hoping the NHS would simply 'cope' as with normal flu was hardly wise, given the nature of corona. The pictures of British nurses wearing bin liners as protection doesn't speak of a suitably funded service. The lack of intensive care for the size of the population.

There isn't a bottomless pit of money for it, but maybe after this crisis a reappraisal of priorities might be in order. £100 billion for nuclear weapons (unusable without American permission?) might be something to reconsider. Why so much wealth ends up in the hands of so few. These sorts of questions need asking regardless of your normal political hue and the usual answers of more taxation or the market will sort it.


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## nickyboy (28 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> British reserve is but one facet of how people behave.
> 
> Farqing grumpy and crotchety to people face to face and moaning and complaining is another common British trait. The problem is some people are nasty judgemental feckers, a lot of the time when someone 'calls' someone out, they are going for the low hanging fruit. They are complaining to someone whose behaviour is probably marginal and the person knows that their social distancing and whatnot has already improved. The ones supposedly calling it out aren't daft, they know if they do it to the ones that aren't soft that are behaving much worse they'll have a brick through their window or visitation.
> 
> Unfortunately/fortunately most people aren't the captain kirk types on here and out there that like a bit of rufty tufty with phasers shoot to kill.


Actually, no

This is far too serious an issue. If I see anyone, and mean anyone, blatantly disregarding social distancing protocols I will go and tell them. There aren't enough police or whatever to enforce this. The people need to self enforce


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## winjim (28 Mar 2020)

I think you can now grass people up online, to save you having to call 101.


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## PK99 (28 Mar 2020)

winjim said:


> I think you can now grass people up online, to save you having to call 101.



Grass people up is TOTALLY the wrong term to use in current circumstances.


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## Julia9054 (28 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I can confirm this is happening.
> 
> My next appointment with my consultant on Monday was cancelled yesterday.
> 
> ...


I am a member of a cervical cancer support forum after my own very minor brush with it last year. There are women who are having chemo cancelled and having just radiotherapy instead due to the risk of chemo weakening the immune system. No idea how this alters clinical outcomes. Very scary.


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## Pat "5mph" (28 Mar 2020)

@Unkraut what did you think of Merkel's address to the nation today?
An excellent speech imo, frank, to the point, no sugarcoating the issue.
I listened to it in German this morning, couldn't find an English translation to put on here, have you got one?


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## winjim (28 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Grass people up is TOTALLY the wrong term to use in current circumstances.


Well, I guess grass is a term invented by wrongdoers in order to shame people into letting them carry on.

Let's say 'report' instead.


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## Unkraut (28 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> @Unkraut what did you think of Merkel's address to the nation today?


I will have to have a look, but it will have to wait a bit as I will be leaving for Frankfurt airport where wife and daughter should be landing within 1 1/2 hours having flown back from New Zealand! 

Merkel, Spahn the health minister and Söder the minister president of Bavaria have all gone up in public estimation as they have dealt decisively, honestly and speedily with the unfolding crisis. Having gone off Merkel a bit, not least because she is very tired having been in office so long, I think this is deserved.


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## Pale Rider (28 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I am a member of a cervical cancer support forum after my own very minor brush with it last year. There are women who are having chemo cancelled and having just radiotherapy instead due to the risk of chemo weakening the immune system. No idea how this alters clinical outcomes. Very scary.



I suppose saying 'we will not do this treatment now because it will put you in a worse virus position' is a reasonable clinical argument.

I'm not so sure of the justification for cancelling my consultation.

@MarkF has posted reliable inside information of hospitals being 'eerily quiet' - the calm before the storm.

Is my consultant so busy making essential virus preparations that he has no time to see me?

The answer may lie in the telephone consultation, if it happens.

The hospital is keen to shield the consultant as much as possible to avoid the risk of him being taken out of action when the virus do-do really hits the fan.

Still a knock back for me, because there are many reasons which I won't bore everyone with why a telephone consultation in this instance is a poor substitute.


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## Mo1959 (28 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I suppose saying 'we will not do this treatment now because it will put you in a worse virus position' is a reasonable clinical argument.
> 
> I'm not so sure of the justification for cancelling my consultation.
> 
> ...


Although it will be the coronavirus deaths that get reported, I wonder how many others there will be unreported who die due to not getting treatments and operations they were due.


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## vickster (28 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I suppose saying 'we will not do this treatment now because it will put you in a worse virus position' is a reasonable clinical argument.
> 
> I'm not so sure of the justification for cancelling my consultation.
> 
> ...


What’s he a consultant of?
The reason for cancelling is either he is busy treating CV19 patients (Eg respiratory specialist, anaesthetist with sub specialism in pain management etc) por just to keep non urgent patients out of hospitals?


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## glasgowcyclist (28 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Still a knock back for me, because there are many reasons which I won't bore everyone with why a telephone consultation in this instance is a poor substitute.



Sorry to hear this PR. I hope the setback is short-lived and you get back to your regime as soon as possible.
All the best.


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Grass people up is TOTALLY the wrong term to use in current circumstances.



Depends if they are a drug dealer going out to deal multiple times.


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## Julia9054 (28 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> What’s he a consultant of?
> The reason for cancelling is either he is busy treating CV19 patients (Eg respiratory specialist, anaesthetist with sub specialism in pain management etc) por just to keep non urgent patients out of hospitals?


Or it may be that he personally is self isolating


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## Pat "5mph" (28 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I am a member of a cervical cancer support forum after my own very minor brush with it last year. There are women who are having chemo cancelled and having just radiotherapy instead due to the risk of chemo weakening the immune system. No idea how this alters clinical outcomes. Very scary.


Yes, I have heard many people saying their medical appointments have been cancelled.
One of my friends, due to have surgery for suspected throat cancer, has had hers postponed the week before Boris shut pubs etc.
I am still attending hospital for radiotherapy, my first session was last Tuesday: the radiotherapists said "ach, the corona? our elderly are resilient"
Wednesday: do I have a cough?
Thursday: social distance in the waiting room, evening news said one of the nurses had been confirmed with the virus.
Friday: nurses wiping chairs, signs of please use hand sanitizer on entry and on exit.
Maybe on Monday the staff will finally get masks to wear?


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## Pale Rider (28 Mar 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Or it may be that he personally is self isolating



The 'Dear Patient' letter indicates all clinics have been cancelled.

I accept it's a reasonable measure to reduce the risk of the consultants and their staff being forced off work by the virus.

I am underwhelmed by the prospect of the telephone substitute, but it's unlikely to be the difference between life and death in my case.

Moral of the story: don't get ill.


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## RecordAceFromNew (28 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> As RecordAceFromNew knows
> 1) there aren't enough masks in the UK and these need prioritising for workers
> 
> 2) Italy has an obsession with masks and wore them not as much as Singapore/China/other asian countries, but nearly as much in comparison to all other countries. Italy's mask obsession doesn't seem to have made a blind bit of difference
> ...



Like most things about this tragedy, horse and stable door come to mind. In the current environment, one would be considered extremely inconsiderate not to wear one in those Asian countries, and they are right. Hopefully, attitude will also change here in due course, in spite of the government.

In an ideal parallel universe, the government wouldn't have rejected recommendations on PPE stockpile made by their expert advisers either.

Regarding the utility of masks for Italy (and indeed Spain), perhaps things like the Game Zero didn't help.


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## Julia9054 (28 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The 'Dear Patient' letter indicates all clinics have been cancelled.
> 
> I accept it's a reasonable measure to reduce the risk of the consultants and their staff being forced off work by the virus.
> 
> ...


Yep.
I'm very glad my crappy year appears to be over. The last place I want to be going is anywhere near hospitals right now.
Hope everything turns out ok for you.


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## kingrollo (28 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I suppose saying 'we will not do this treatment now because it will put you in a worse virus position' is a reasonable clinical argument.
> 
> I'm not so sure of the justification for cancelling my consultation.
> 
> ...


That's the reason the hosp where I work has switched to video consultation s where practical


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Mar 2020)

50% mortality rate in ICU. Not good at all.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...ve-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate

the report

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b


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## kingrollo (28 Mar 2020)

Am I the only one who thinks the worst culprits for breaking SD rules, aren't teenagers or cyclists - but Dog Walkers ?

(Yes I do have a dog)


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## kingrollo (28 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> 50% mortality rate in ICU. Not good at all.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/society...ve-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate


Just read a couple of article's 

1.People are put into ICU beds - when really they are beyond help already.

2.) The advantage of ICU is 24/7 1-1 care - maybe this isn't possible currently.


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## Julia9054 (28 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Am I the only one who thinks the worst culprits for breaking SD rules, aren't teenagers or cyclists - but Dog Walkers ?
> 
> (Yes I do have a dog)


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## nickyboy (28 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Am I the only one who thinks the worst culprits for breaking SD rules, aren't teenagers or cyclists - but Dog Walkers ?
> 
> (Yes I do have a dog)


No

Catching it while outside is pretty difficult

The people that are the issue are:

1) Those going round to other folk's houses

2) Those congregating outside 

3) Those going to supermarket and not dealing with their personal hygiene properly


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## PK99 (28 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> 50% mortality rate in ICU. Not good at all.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/society...ve-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate
> 
> ...



file:///C:/Users/pgkel/Downloads/ICNARC%20COVID-19%20report%202020-03-27.pdf.pdf

From my skimming of the report someone has been misreading the data;
(edit: which I did earlier today before your post)

Table 1: 775 confirmed cases have entered ICU

Table 2: Critical care has ended for 165 cases: 82 alive (52.1%) 79 dead (47.9%)

That is not the same as 50 mortality for those entering critical care or in ICU


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## winjim (28 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I would’ve thought accuracy and ease of use are obvious, it means we know who are better protected and it could help with planning.


That kind of depends on what you mean by accuracy. The clinical utility of a test is expressed in terms of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity is the ability of the test to distinguish those with the disease (true positives), while specificity is the ability of the test to distinguish those without the disease (true negatives), and depending on what you're using the test for, you can tweak your parameters to favour one over the other. In the case of the CV-19 antibody test its purpose seems to be to identify key workers who have had the virus and are therefore assumed to be immune and can safely return to work. This means that you would favour sensitivity over specificity. A high false positive rate would mean that you are potentially sending people without immunity but with a false sense of security back into harms way, whereas with a high false negative rate, the worst that will happen is that you keep people with immunity in isolation for a bit longer than is necessary.

Conversely, the purpose of the antigen test appears to be to identify key workers who do not have the virus so that their return to work can be expedited with no need to keep them in isolation. In this case you would favour specificity over sensitivity. A high false negative rate would mean that you are potentially sending infected individuals back into the workplace and putting their colleagues as risk, whereas with a high false positive rate the worst that will happen is that you keep uninfected people in isolation for longer than is necessary.

Of course the perfect clinical test has 100% sensitivity and specificity, but unfortunately there's no such thing.


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## kingrollo (28 Mar 2020)

nickyboy said:


> No
> 
> Catching it while outside is pretty difficult
> 
> ...



I actually meant for breaking SD rules - rather than spread the virus.


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> file:///C:/Users/pgkel/Downloads/ICNARC%20COVID-19%20report%202020-03-27.pdf.pdf
> 
> From my skimming of the report someone has been misreading the data;
> (edit: which I did earlier today before your post)
> ...



pffft 50% or 48% still not good odds


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## PK99 (28 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> pffft 50% or 48% still not good odds



You are still misreading the data..

Of 775 entering, ICU:
79 have so far died. 
82 have left critical care alive.
The rest are still alive in critical care.

Time will tell what the mortality rate turns out to be. But saying it is 50% is not a correct reading the data as they stand.


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## winjim (28 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> You are still misreading the data..
> 
> Of 775 entering, ICU:
> 79 have so far died.
> ...


Have I got this right? About 600 CV19 patients are still in critical care across England, Wales and NI. England has about 4000 critical care beds, usually at about 80% capacity. Meaning that the ICU mortality statistics are likely to become rather skewed rather quickly...


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## Rusty Nails (28 Mar 2020)

Taking as truth the explanation of statistics in a newspaper is always going to be a leap of faith unless you see the full, original statistics. The paragraph in the article leaves room for confusion about the true mortality rates of those in ICU.


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## mjr (29 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Had we spent lots more money on the NHS in those years, is there anything to suggest the NHS would now be better prepared for the virus?


Maybe we'd have as many ICU beds per capita as Germany?


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## Joey Shabadoo (29 Mar 2020)

Looks like we're getting buttered up for tighter restrictions. 

View: https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1244029214933889024


Anyone care to speculate as to what they might be? I posted elsewhere that in Panama, there's a 24hr curfew. People are only allowed out for 2 1/2 hrs - a time slot linked to a number on the bearer's ID card. Can't see how that could be applied here as we have no ID cards. Could more businesses be forced to close? AIUI businesses can stay open if they can ensure safe distancing but I've read so many stories of this being abused so maybe that will be looked at.


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## PeteXXX (29 Mar 2020)

No ID card, but I have a letter from my employer, Morrisons, to say that I'm a 'Key Worker, as defined by the government' as I drive tons of goods, 4 days a week, to our supermarkets. 
Maybe, if people can't produce such proof, they'll have some explaining to do?


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## Pale Rider (29 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Looks like we're getting buttered up for tighter restrictions.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1244029214933889024
> 
> ...




The line about not hesitating to go further indicates that will happen on medical and scientific advice.

Which begs the question, what might the doctors and scientists want us to do that we are not currently doing?

Keep away from each other even more than we are now is the only answer that springs readily to mind.

Hard to see how anyone who is complying religiously with the current restrictions could do that.

I'm going to make the possibly bold suggestion that those of us fully complying at present have little to fear from new restrictions.

Throughout this process, our masters have been alive to the fact that any measures need to have public support, or at least acceptance.

Even if the science advises it, they will be wary of trying to impose something so draconian as to lose that support.

We are being told things will get worse before they get better.

It may be the softening up is in preparation for telling us three weeks inside won't cut it, and we will have to stay home for much longer.

Which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.


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## PK99 (29 Mar 2020)

WRT the calls for mass testing as per South Korea.

This BBC world service programme about /south Korea is worth listening to.

Only the centralised state, ID cards and ability to track and publish location and movement of individuals via Mobile phones made testing work.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csythk

##################

*And this snippet from a Telegraph article about Taiwan:*

_It was 7am when James Fox was dragged from his slumbers by an incessant ringing on the doorbell of his flat in the Taiwanese capital where he was undergoing a 14-day coronavirus quarantine.

Still groggy with sleep, the American university researcher opened the door to find an irate policeman who instantly began to berate him in rapid-fire Chinese. “I had no idea why because I couldn’t understand what he was saying. It was a very frightening experience,” he recalled.

Mr Fox’s mistake had been to switch his mobile phone onto "airplane" mode in order to get a good night’s sleep, unwittingly dropping off the Taiwanese government’s electronic surveillance grid for those being quarantined after arriving from overseas.

The knock at the door came despite Mr Fox receiving two calls a day from a government-assigned social worker to check that he had not developed Covid-19 symptoms after a recent trip to Iceland.

*His experience, shared on a Facebook group, offered a flicker of insight into the extent that some governments are prepared to go to suppress the spread of Covid-19, raising profound questions for Western democracies about how the state, big data and society should intersect as the global pandemic takes hold.

##########################*_


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## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The line about not hesitating to go further indicates that will happen on medical and scientific advice.
> 
> Which begs the question, what might the doctors and scientists want us to do that we are not currently doing?
> 
> ...


Yes, I agree....perhaps what is planned are more powers for the police and greater fines for those who are not complying with the current restrictions. Of course it may be an exercise in communication - making sure the public don't get complacent and start to lapse into old habits.


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## Tanis8472 (29 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Looks like we're getting buttered up for tighter restrictions.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1244029214933889024
> 
> ...




Ruined it with the comment about great British spirit.


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## DCLane (29 Mar 2020)

There are a number of things they could do:

- Curfews - night or 24-hour
- Tighter restrictions on time out or movement
- Total lockdown for London/Birmingham with nothing open, only NHS/transport allowed out
- Total lockdown as above for the whole of the UK 
- Greater fines/jail for those deemed to be 
- Almost endless, but why?


----------



## Levo-Lon (29 Mar 2020)

Looks like Andrew Marr show is going to b a point finger blame episode, so that can fook off


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## tom73 (29 Mar 2020)

No idea if this is from who it makes out to be. 
But the wording is true enough 

View: https://twitter.com/alexdowsett/status/1244042957898088448?s=20


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

Still think it is all bollocks and purely an exercise in social engineering, whether it will be used to usher in I'd cards or some other measures I don't know, but I would bet the next step will be told that work can open up and continue as normal in the interim but all social activity must remain in lock down.

Efit: indeed in that letter it still says that travel to work is permitted if it can't be done from home, no mention of essential work.

Interesting reply to the letter tweet, from an alleged professional, but maybe not a government recognised one
Professor Karol Sikora (@ProfKarolSikora) Tweeted:
This is extremely encouraging.

A new study from Imperial shows the total deaths could be lower than 7000 - *less than seasonal flu.*

The peak could be just a week away if true.

What we are all doing is working - just by staying at home we are saving lives. 
View: https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1243820038131507200?s=20


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## Tanis8472 (29 Mar 2020)




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## Mo1959 (29 Mar 2020)

Just read this........I can see restrictions in place for a whole lot longer yet. I think the mention of 3 weeks was just to break us in gently.

*UK lockdown 'could last until June'*
Tough measures to tackle the outbreak in the UK have been in force for nearly a week - but a leading government adviser has warned they may need to remain in place until June.
Imperial College London Professor Neil Ferguson told the Sunday Times: “We’re going to have to keep these measures (the full lockdown) in place, in my view, for a significant period of time – probably until the end of May, maybe even early June.”
He added that even if the lockdown was lifted, people would probably still need to abide by social distancing measures for months to come.
Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove told Sky News that the length of the measures was not something that was "absolutely fixed".
He said: "It depends on all of our behaviour. If we follow the guidelines, we can deal more effectively with the spread of the disease."
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## Joey Shabadoo (29 Mar 2020)

I can't really see any alternative until there's a vaccine or everybody's caught it and the vulnerable are all dead.


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just read this........I can see restrictions in place for a whole lot longer yet. I think the mention of 3 weeks was just to break us in gently.
> 
> *UK lockdown 'could last until June'*
> Tough measures to tackle the outbreak in the UK have been in force for nearly a week - but a leading government adviser has warned they may need to remain in place until June.
> ...


And yet another says
Professor Karol Sikora (@ProfKarolSikora) Tweeted:
This is extremely encouraging.

A new study from Imperial shows the total deaths could be lower than 7000 - less than seasonal flu.

The peak could be just a week away if true.

What we are all doing is working - just by staying at home we are saving lives. 
View: https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1243820038131507200?s=20

But we all know which professor the media will prefer


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## Julia9054 (29 Mar 2020)

If we are all getting a letter from Boris, let's just hope he hasn't licked the envelope


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## Mo1959 (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> And yet another says
> Professor Karol Sikora (@ProfKarolSikora) Tweeted:
> This is extremely encouraging.
> 
> ...



However the guy I quoted is a professor of epidemiology and the guy you quoted is an oncologist! I think I would prefer someone who has experience of such matters!


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> However the guy I quoted is a professor of epidemiology and the guy you quoted is an oncologist! I think I would prefer someone who has experience of such matters!


Ah sorry, missed that, an oncologist!!! cancer doctors, pah as if they know anything.

He also happens to be an adviser to the WHO, but we have BJ who needs the WHO


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## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Still think it is all bollocks and purely an exercise in social engineering, whether it will be used to usher in I'd cards or some other measures I don't know, but I would bet the next step will be told that work can open up and continue as normal in the interim but all social activity must remain in lock down.
> 
> Efit: indeed in that letter it still says that travel to work is permitted if it can't be done from home, no mention of essential work.
> 
> ...




Its an un-peer reviewed study by an electrical engineer. Here it is. 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1

It projects a *maximum* daily death rate for the UK of 260.

Deaths yesterday in the UK were... ...260.

The study has already been overtaken by events.


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## winjim (29 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just read this........I can see restrictions in place for a whole lot longer yet. I think the mention of 3 weeks was just to break us in gently.
> 
> *UK lockdown 'could last until June'*
> Tough measures to tackle the outbreak in the UK have been in force for nearly a week - but a leading government adviser has warned they may need to remain in place until June.
> ...


I can't help think that 'breaking us in gently' has been part of the problem. It's also rather at odds with the concept of 'British Spirit' or whatever, dontcha think?


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## deptfordmarmoset (29 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> No idea if this is from who it makes out to be.
> But the wording is true enough
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/alexdowsett/status/1244042957898088448?s=20



Aye, and the police will be likely more deadly than CV-19.


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## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Ah sorry, missed that, an oncologist!!! cancer doctors, pah as if they know anything.
> 
> He also happens to be an adviser to the WHO, but we have BJ who needs the WHO



Note the "if true" caveat.


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## Johnno260 (29 Mar 2020)

Well seems 97 Grandma has issues, they can’t control her heart rate and the other patient in the bay with her tested positive for C-19


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

The bold I quoted was the comparison to seasonal flu, why doesn't the country or world for that matter go into lock down for the flu every year? Look at flu statistics and 100's of thousands die from the flu every year but no one bat's an eyelid, no one panics when they get a cold everyone continues to work. I get that this covid 19 may be more virulent and may have a greater death rate (we can't say for sure because no one knows exactly how many people have had it as mass testing isn't happening) BUT I don't get why flu is ignored compared to this. There as to be something we aren't being told, whether that is an agenda on a worldwide scale or to avoid mass panic I don't know.


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## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> The bold I quoted was the comparison to seasonal flu, why doesn't the country or world for that matter go into lock down for the flu every year? Look at flu statistics and 100's of thousands die from the flu every year but no one bat's an eyelid, no one panics when they get a cold everyone continues to work. I get that this covid 19 may be more virulent and may have a greater death rate (we can't say for sure because no one knows exactly how many people have had it as mass testing isn't happening) BUT I don't get why flu is ignored compared to this. There as to be something we aren't being told, whether that is an agenda on a worldwide scale or to avoid mass panic I don't know.



Graphic to compare flu and COVID for you from NY data should answer your question. 






View: https://i.imgur.com/A5gjjrh.png


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## Pale Rider (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Efit: indeed in that letter it still says that travel to work is permitted if it can't be done from home, no mention of essential work.



The aim is to keep the public indoors as much as possible.

There is no ban on work, essential or otherwise.

To help keep everyone indoors, the government has ordered non essential shops to close.

Businesses affected in that way are still allowed to trade online, many still are, although some have closed their online business as well.

It is accepted a business still trading online will need some staff to travel to the office and warehouse/distribution facility.

However, there is an expectation that as many as can work from home will do so.


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Well seems 97 Grandma has issues, they can’t control her heart rate and the other patient in the bay with her tested positive for C-19


Very sorry to hear that, I hope she pulls through, as she got this virus?


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Graphic to compare flu and COVID for you from NY data should answer your question.
> 
> View attachment 511125
> 
> View: https://i.imgur.com/A5gjjrh.png



Not really flu as been killing on average 125? People a week since the study started in one state alone, so I am asking then at what point does the death rate warrant lock down?


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The aim is to keep the public indoors as much as possible.
> 
> There is no ban on work, essential or otherwise.
> 
> ...


Hmmm so working in a factory or office with air conditioning with 100's of others for 8 hours is OK but walking in the open air away from your front door for more than an hour will lead to zombie apocalypse


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## winjim (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> The bold I quoted was the comparison to seasonal flu, why doesn't the country or world for that matter go into lock down for the flu every year? Look at flu statistics and 100's of thousands die from the flu every year but no one bat's an eyelid, no one panics when they get a cold everyone continues to work. I get that this covid 19 may be more virulent and may have a greater death rate (we can't say for sure because no one knows exactly how many people have had it as mass testing isn't happening) BUT I don't get why flu is ignored compared to this. There as to be something we aren't being told, whether that is an agenda on a worldwide scale or to avoid mass panic I don't know.


Flu isn't ignored. There's a massive publicity campaign every year to make sure people get their vaccines.


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## mjr (29 Mar 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> @Unkraut what did you think of Merkel's address to the nation today?
> An excellent speech imo, frank, to the point, no sugarcoating the issue.
> I listened to it in German this morning, couldn't find an English translation to put on here, have you got one?


Not a full translation but an English language report of it at https://apnews.com/96cc19652caa5602ac47351e3e6dcc54


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## MarkF (29 Mar 2020)

winjim said:


> Have I got this right? About 600 CV19 patients are still in critical care across England, Wales and NI. England has about 4000 critical care beds, usually at about 80% capacity. Meaning that the ICU mortality statistics are likely to become rather skewed rather quickly...



I expect there'll soon be a time when they are more selective with admittees so it might not go so wonky so quickly. Many with or with suspected Covid-19 are in wards where you are not expected to leave, the ones I have come into contact with are probably leaving this world soon regardless.


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## Joey Shabadoo (29 Mar 2020)

Posted at 10:00
*BREAKING UK to be in lockdown for 'significant period'*
The UK needs to prepare to be under strict measures for a "significant period", Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove says.

From BBC live updates


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

They need to roll out blanket testing, let those that have had it/ carry immunity to it get on with their lives, look after those that currently have it and monitor/ restrict everyone else. At least with blanket testing there would be a better knowledge of the actual death and recovery rate. Trump is correct, and that's something I never thought I would say.


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## mjr (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> They need to roll out blanket testing, let those that have had it/ carry immunity to it get on with their lives, look after those that currently have it and monitor/ restrict everyone else. At least with blanket testing there would be a better knowledge of the actual death and recovery rate. Trump is correct, and that's something I never thought I would say.


Handy tip: if you ever say "Trump is correct" then you've almost certainly either made a mistake in your logic or misheard what Trump said.


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## mjr (29 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I can't really see any alternative until there's a vaccine or everybody's caught it and the vulnerable are all dead.


Mutation of the virus is another possible way out, to something less lethal, possibly more contagious, hopefully giving immunity against the troublesome strain. IIRC that's basically how the 1918 flu crisis ended.


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## Johnno260 (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Very sorry to hear that, I hope she pulls through, as she got this virus?


When she was admitted it was negative, but now as the next bed is a confirmed case we are waiting on the retest.


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> When she was admitted it was negative, but now as the next bed is a confirmed case we are waiting on the retest.


Scary I would have thought they would test first and isolate wards with and without, we have to believe that the nurses are currently taking even more precautions than usual when moving between patients and wards which leaves us with things like air conditioning, showing how allowing normal business factories and the like to restart or in some cases continue is stupid, unless absolutely essential.


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## Johnno260 (29 Mar 2020)

Look at some bosses attitudes especially in the USA, GameStop is telling employees to work and if they have an issue use plastic bags on your hands.


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## CanucksTraveller (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Scary I would have thought they would test first and isolate wards with and without, we have to believe that the nurses are currently taking even more precautions than usual when moving between patients and wards which leaves us with things like air conditioning, showing how allowing normal business factories and the like to restart or in some cases continue is stupid, unless absolutely essential.



Scary? 

Literally 30 minutes ago you said it was a load of old bollocks dreamed up to get us all on ID cards, now you're worrying about nurses and people working in air conditioned factories. Which is it, bollocks or scary?


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## vickster (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> They need to roll out blanket testing, let those that *have had it/ carry immunity to it get on with their lives, look after those that currently have it and monitor/ restrict everyone else*. At least with blanket testing there would be a better knowledge of the actual death and recovery rate. Trump is correct, and that's something I never thought I would say.


And how would you do that without some sort of ID card to enforce? 
or was your earlier assertion that these are a good idea?


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Scary?
> 
> Literally 30 minutes ago you said it was a load of old bollocks dreamed up to get us all on ID cards, now you're worrying about nurses and people working in air conditioned factories. Which is it, bollocks or scary?


I said the lock down was bollocks, and this proves it, either we need to a have lock down or we don't. If they want everyone to stop in and stop all social activity then how can going to work in non essential industry be justified? If the disease is spreading in sterile environments then it must have a transmission for eg air on which is in factories. To this extent travelling in a car or walking in the country is not going to spread the disease. I get this flattening the curve bit, but the people who have died so far have either had medical attention or been denied it and told to remain in isolation, so to an extent the lock down and measures taken could have actually exascabated the problem. Another thing I am not happy about is the selective testing and reporting, at least 20 folk have been off self isolating from work. OK some will be swinging led but some will be genuine, they aren't part of the statistic.


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## tom73 (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Scary I would have thought they would test first and isolate wards with and without, we have to believe that the nurses are currently taking even more precautions than usual when moving between patients and wards which leaves us with things like air conditioning, showing how allowing normal business factories and the like to restart or in some cases continue is stupid, unless absolutely essential.



Air con you will find many hospitals wards don't have any other than the odd window. 
If they are lucky it's mostly in the theatres and the odd office of course.


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## wafter (29 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Look at some bosses attitudes especially in the USA, GameStop is telling employees to work and if they have an issue use plastic bags on your hands.


I was shocked to hear that only now is Trump considering prohibiting non-essential travel in NY and other heavily hit areas - with what's been playing out there for days, WTAF? Generally (by pretty much any metric) the US appears far more cut-throat than most other places; lives being worth far less than profit.


As for all the conspiratorial stuff; I like to keep an open mind and think from the way things have gone over the past 50yrs it's clear that governments are actively pursuing an agenda to surveil and restrict the liberties of their citizens.

Just like any other opportunity I expect them to attempt to manipulate this situation to similar ends; although I think it's 95% outside their control and their actions are opportunistic rather than anything more premeditated. I don't think that in this case their desire for control outweighs the damage that's being done to an economic system that already appears to serve them well in lining their pockets and consoledating their existing positions of control and priviledge.

The reason we have more control over our private lives than our "professional" ones is precisely for this reason - a money-focussed government attempting to minimise economic damage while retaining an "acceptable" amount of deaths.

From an Orwellian perspective I think the most sinister purpose this pandemic could serve is to test / illustrate how people react to the imposition of such tight restrictions; which could then be used for less justifiable actions in future.

Judging by our situation so far as well as in comparson to Italy, the suggestion that our numbers might peak in a week's time is absolute fantasy IMO. In my totally unqualified opinion I'm thinking maybr 4-5wks until peak, 3-4wks for the the number of infections to fall to a point where greater levels of social interaction are considered justified. So yeah maybe 8 more weeks of "lockdown" brings us to the beginning of June.

Then, after all that there's the very real possibility of it happening all over again following another outbreak; although hopefully under such circumstances greater experience / knowledge, faster action and an existing level of immunity (to an extent) might limits its severity, rate of spread and duration. Repeated instances like this are inevitable IMO until it's either worked it's way through everyone, mutated to become less dangerous or we obtain a vaccine.

A widely available test would help in allowing those who are (hopefully!) immune to operate in key roles unrestricted, which would hopefully give us a bit more control over the situation but would do little to protect the vulnerable on a personal level.


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## winjim (29 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Air con you will find many hospitals wards don't have any other than the odd window.
> If they are lucky it's mostly in the theatres and the odd office of course.


Offices are the last place you'd find AC in an NHS hospital. We've got AC in the entire lab as we've got analysers kicking out loads of heat, and temperature sensitive reagents. But can we get it installed in our boiling hot / freezing cold office? No chance.


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## tom73 (29 Mar 2020)

winjim said:


> Offices are the last place you'd find AC in an NHS hospital. We've got AC in the entire lab as we've got analysers kicking out loads of heat, and temperature sensitive reagents. But can we get it installed in our boiling hot / freezing cold office? No chance.



That's because your not a beancounter


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## Archie_tect (29 Mar 2020)

The US must be preparing for a massive spike... lots of empty words from Trump show he doesn't get it yet.


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## Mo1959 (29 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> The US must be preparing for a massive spike... lots of empty words from Trump show he doesn't get it yet.


He appears to be almost in denial doesn't he!


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## winjim (29 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's because your not a beancounter


I don't blame the beancounters in the trust. It goes higher than that.


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## Rusty Nails (29 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Its an un-peer reviewed study by an electrical engineer. Here it is.
> 
> https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1
> 
> ...



You know what they say.....there is no fool like an old***fool.


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

My main point is the not knowing. For journos to start talking about 20000 dead in the UK is just sensationalism, and fear mongering, the government hasn't stopped this sort of reporting though as it? How many cases of death through pneumonia with underlying issues have occurred before February that were actually attributable to covid? How big a percentage of the population as already had it and either put it down to the flu or self isolated? How many deaths are being attributed to covid 19 and how many are from covid 19? Talking to one NHS worker, and not the cleaner before anyone says it, and they are saying people dying who would maybe have received different treatment if it wasn't for cv19 are having their demise attributed to cv19. How many cv 19 patients who have died might have developed pneumonia as a result of flu if they hadn't developed cv instead? Not belittling cv nor feeling any less sympathetic for anyone who gets it or as relatives suffering with it. I posted previously my sons fiancee thinks she had it and was in a high risk group but still just got told to stay at home. My father died of pneumonia with underlying issues 2 years ago, I haven't been more 200yds from the house since last Tuesday and won't if I don't have to, but I still don't buy what we are being sold. Maybe there is something more to it and they are trying to avoid hysteria (doubtfully with social media as it is) or it is a snowball that as gathered so much momentum worldwide it can't be stopped if they wanted to.


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## All uphill (29 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Mutation of the virus is another possible way out, to something less lethal, possibly more contagious, hopefully giving immunity against the troublesome strain. IIRC that's basically how the 1918 flu crisis ended.


You remember the 1918 crisis? How old are you?


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## glasgowcyclist (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> For journos to start talking about 20000 dead in the UK is just sensationalism, and fear mongering




That figure wasn’t made up by a journalist, it was an assessment given by NHS England medical director Prof Stephen Powis: If UK death toll is kept below 20,000, "we will have done very well".


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## Rezillo (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> The bold I quoted was the comparison to seasonal flu, why doesn't the country or world for that matter go into lock down for the flu every year? Look at flu statistics and 100's of thousands die from the flu every year but no one bat's an eyelid, no one panics when they get a cold everyone continues to work. I get that this covid 19 may be more virulent and may have a greater death rate (we can't say for sure because no one knows exactly how many people have had it as mass testing isn't happening) BUT I don't get why flu is ignored compared to this. There as to be something we aren't being told, whether that is an agenda on a worldwide scale or to avoid mass panic I don't know.



It's because like is not being compared with like. The tested and confirmed flu deaths are in the order of a few hundred per year, even in bad years, whereas the figures of tens of thousands of flu cases are extrapolations from excess winter deaths, where not all are tested or ascribed to flu as a cause. In general, deaths from all causes go up during a flu outbreak across a season. Just what proportion of these deaths are ascribable to flu or where flu is a contributory factor is a controversial topic but the NHS usually copes because many of these cases die at home and those that are hospitalised and die there are spread over months.

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

It's self-evident that what has happened in China, Iran, Italy and Spain etc. is nothing like a bad flu season. The stats from Wuhan for confirmed hospitalised cases showed that in their critical category, there was a 49% mortality. For deaths overall, 33% had no co-morbid condition. Another set of earlier stats had 100% of Critical cases with bi-lobar pneumonia. The only good point from this was that all the Wuhan deaths were in the Critical category, so even the cases one grade below that, "Severe", survived.

There will be excess winter deaths due to Covid-19; just that we don't know yet how many. While Covid-19 is very much not flu, it does cause flu-like symptoms and there is a reporting system for these. It is worth keeping an eye on the weekly reports. The most recent one showed a rise.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season


Chinese case categories:

Mild included non-pneumonia and mild pneumonia cases. Severe was characterized by dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% within 24–48 hours. Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure


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## vickster (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> My main point is the not knowing. For journos to start talking about 20000 dead in the UK is just sensationalism, and fear mongering, the government hasn't stopped this sort of reporting though as it? How many cases of death through pneumonia with underlying issues have occurred before February that were actually attributable to covid? How big a percentage of the population as already had it and either put it down to the flu or self isolated? How many deaths are being attributed to covid 19 and how many are from covid 19? Talking to one NHS worker, and not the cleaner before anyone says it, and they are saying people dying who would maybe have received different treatment if it wasn't for cv19 are having their demise attributed to cv19. How many cv 19 patients who have died might have developed pneumonia as a result of flu if they hadn't developed cv instead? Not belittling cv nor feeling any less sympathetic for anyone who gets it or as relatives suffering with it. I posted previously my sons fiancee thinks she had it and was in a high risk group but still just got told to stay at home. My father died of pneumonia with underlying issues 2 years ago, I haven't been more 200yds from the house since last Tuesday and won't if I don't have to, but I still don't buy what we are being sold. Maybe there is something more to it and they are trying to avoid hysteria (doubtfully with social media as it is) or it is a snowball that as gathered so much momentum worldwide it can't be stopped if they wanted to.


The 20000 number was quoted by NHS England Medical Director in the press conference yesterday which is what the press are presumably reporting 

Coronavirus: No time for complacency, says NHS England https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52078750

Cross posted with @glasgowcyclist


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> It's because like is not being compared with like. The tested and confirmed flu deaths are in the order of a few hundred per year, even in bad years, whereas the figures of tens of thousands of flu cases are extrapolations from excess winter deaths, where not all are tested or ascribed to flu as a cause. In general, deaths from all causes go up during a flu outbreak across a season. Just what proportion of these deaths are ascribable to flu or where flu is a contributory factor is a controversial topic but the NHS usually copes because many of these cases die at home and those that are hospitalised and die there are spread over months.
> 
> https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6
> 
> ...


Well all I can say is the more accurate information that is provided then the better informed everyone will be. For instance according to the cdc there have been over 23000 deaths in the USA from flu this year, in the graph presented earlier in this thread flu deaths in NY run at 125+ a week 52 weeks a year. When you look at those sort of figures then it is hard not to wonder why flu is ignored (in context with the current situation) and why cv19 is being treated so extremely. But then as as been pointed out I am but a fool, old and fat at that so maybe I won't be long for this earth in any case. Stay safe all.


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## PK99 (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Well all I can say is the more accurate information that is provided then the better informed everyone will be. For instance according to the cdc there have been over 23000 deaths in the USA from flu this year, in the graph presented earlier in this thread flu deaths in NY run at 125+ a week 52 weeks a year. When you look at those sort of figures then it is hard not to wonder why flu is ignored (in context with the current situation) and why cv19 is being treated so extremely. But then as as been pointed out I am but a fool, old and fat at that so maybe I won't be long for this earth in any case. Stay safe all.



Why do you keep saying *flu is ignored?

It isn't!*

I have had a free flu jab every year for the past 5 or 6, because of chest vulnerabilities, and flu virus mutating every year.

Why is Covid-19 being treated so extremely? - If you cannot work that out by now there is no hope of your ever understanding.


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## Tanis8472 (29 Mar 2020)

c19 is not bloody influenza.
its a SARS Virus. different animal.


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## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> And how would you do that without some sort of ID card to enforce?
> or was your earlier assertion that these are a good idea?




This is worth thinking about. 

We cannot sustain society in the current shutdown state for more than a few weeks or months at most, whereas a vaccine is at least a year, probably longer away. 

The test and trace policy in Korea seems to involve widespread monitoring of movement and contacts via mobile phone records. That, or something similar will be presumably needed here too once the peak is passed. 

Which leaves us a terrible choice:

Hundreds of thousands of deaths, or government surveillance, or long term social shutdown likely leading to collapse. 

You have to choose one of these three. Which one do you fancy?


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## vickster (29 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This is worth thinking about.
> 
> We cannot sustain society in the current shutdown state for more than a few weeks or months at most, whereas a vaccine is at least a year, probably longer away.
> 
> ...


I'm not anti ID cards, never have been. I was responding his earlier post.
Sooner we get back to normality the better. 
Antibody tests great, but there seems to be some doubt as to whether they work reliably


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## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Why do you keep saying *flu is ignored?
> 
> It isn't!*
> 
> ...


In the context of bloody cvid19 it is, the jab doesn't stop the flu, there are still 000000's of deaths and a lock down would stop a vast majority of them but the don't lock down do they.


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## Rezillo (29 Mar 2020)

I think there is going to be to have to be some kind of tested status accreditation, assuming we get a reliable test. Cards and certificates are not going to be the way forward in the UK; we've already seen scrotes stealing NHS id cards. Having infected people roam around while claiming immune status from faked or stolen id doesn't bear thinking about.

My guess is tamper-proof chipped wrist bands until we either have herd immunity or a vaccine is produced. A police state's dream. However, if testing does reveal widespread asymptomatic infection levels, then it might never come to that. We could have a largely immune population much earlier than currently thought. However, I fear this is just wishful thinking.


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## geocycle (29 Mar 2020)

This is probably the most authoritative source regarding the science 

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/


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## lazybloke (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> In the context of bloody cvid19 it is, the jab doesn't stop the flu, there are still 000000's of deaths and a lock down would stop a vast majority of them but the don't lock down do they.


Covid19 has an estimated mortality rate or 1%, but puts a much larger number (19%) in hospital.

So for every 19 admissions with CV, 18 will survive if they receive appropriate treatment (in many cases, weeks of treatment).
But CV is overwhelming healthcare systems. Once the hospital beds are full, how many of those 18 will also die from lack of available treatment? 


That's the key difference between CV and flu. Flu only stresses healthcare systems, it doesn't totally overwhelm them.


----------



## PK99 (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> In the context of bloody cvid19 it is, the jab doesn't stop the flu, there are still 000000's of deaths and a lock down would stop a vast majority of them but the don't lock down do they.



Enough already!

I'm breaking a golden rule >>>>> Ignore


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (29 Mar 2020)

The effect of 







is


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bE68xVXf8Kw


----------



## Tanis8472 (29 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Enough already!
> 
> I'm breaking a golden rule >>>>> Ignore



Better to be out in the open to be challenged! Surely?


----------



## Rusty Nails (29 Mar 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Better to be out in the open to be challenged! Surely?



Out in the open and at least two metres away.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> the graph presented earlier in this thread flu deaths in NY run at 125+ a week 52 weeks a year. When you look at those sort of figures then it is hard not to wonder why flu is ignored (in context with the current situation) and why cv19 is being treated so extremely



Just as a reminder for onlookers. He's the graph:






It's blindingly obvious why cv19 is being treated so seriously.

But I guess it just goes to show that there are none so blind as fat fools who will not see.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (29 Mar 2020)

Today's (yesterday's) figures:

209 (260) dead, 2433 (2546) new cases, only 6961 (6999) tested, 35% (36.4%) positive.


----------



## Mike_P (29 Mar 2020)

Everyone in employment has, or should have, an National Insurance number which could be used to identify workers who have had CV19 and okay to return to work.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Today's (yesterday's) figures:
> 
> 209 (260) dead, 2433 (2546) new cases, only 6961 (6999) tested, 35% (36.4%) positive.



It's a great relief that yesterday's record not surpassed. Am I right in thinking Sunday figures have generally been lower throughout, or did I imagine that?


----------



## kingrollo (29 Mar 2020)

lazybloke said:


> Covid19 has an estimated mortality rate or 1%, but puts a much larger number (19%) in hospital.
> 
> So for every 19 admissions with CV, 18 will survive if they receive appropriate treatment (in many cases, weeks of treatment).
> But CV is overwhelming healthcare systems. Once the hospital beds are full, how many of those 18 will also die from lack of available treatment?
> ...


I thought the FLu v coronavirus debate was pretty much done. I don't know what more evidence people need tbh.


----------



## tom73 (29 Mar 2020)

FFS people are dying and all some what to do is “oh do pass me a sandwich“

Police break up a house party complete with buffet. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-engla...ws/england&link_location=live-reporting-story


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (29 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It's a great relief that yesterday's record not surpassed. Am I right in thinking Sunday figures have generally been lower throughout, or did I imagine that?



I am afraid the daily variation means very little - there is no way the exponential growth is going to stop any time soon, for the simple reason that people who died yesterday would have been infected two or three weeks ago on average, well before the change of isolation policy by the government, not to mention the current policy is far from strict:






What will further fuel the death rate is when we run out of spare ventilators, or staff who are adequately trained to sedate, inturbate and monitor them 24/7. Initial figures currently show of those who are put on ventilation roughly half make it, and half don't. If and when there is a shortage (probably over the next week), those who need one but can't have one will have little chance.


----------



## dutchguylivingintheuk (29 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Everyone in employment has, or should have, an National Insurance number which could be used to identify workers who have had CV19 and okay to return to work.


Or they even sure that having had corona also means imminutiy ? I have read much about it but also that they weren't sure if that would be the case with experiences in China of poeple getting infected again, but on the other hand information from China is just as good as no information considering their track record.


kingrollo said:


> I thought the FLu v coronavirus debate was pretty much done. I don't know what more evidence people need tbh.


I think it is an silly debate Coronavirus is an Novel virus in other terms not seen before yet, as the flu is pretty known by now. So there not comparable by definition.


----------



## Pale Rider (29 Mar 2020)

Unimpressive performance by the Channel 4 News hack who couldn't get Dr Jenny Harries' name correct when he asked a question in the live press conference just now.


----------



## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

I know it's the wail but interesting non the less.PETER HITCHENS: This Great Panic is foolish, yet our freedom is broken https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...ippled.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead


----------



## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> I know it's the wail but interesting non the less.PETER HITCHENS: This Great Panic is foolish, yet our freedom is broken https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...ippled.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead


Peter Hitchens or Professor Chris Whitty. It’s a difficult choice when it comes to whose advice to believe on Covid.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> ...the wail but interesting non the less.



I believe that's what's known as an oxymoron


----------



## Glow worm (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> I know it's the wail but interesting non the less.PETER HITCHENS: This Great Panic is foolish, yet our freedom is broken https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...ippled.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead



Hitchens could have saved himself a lot of effort there by simply just typing 'look at what a complete tool I am' as both that, and the article lead readers to the same conclusion.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

OK, I read it. 

I knew I'd regret it. 

It's ridiculous. And dull, stacked full of cliche and ignorance.


----------



## newfhouse (29 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It's ridiculous. And dull, stacked full of cliche and ignorance.


I think you’ll find that’s a contractual obligation for a DM opinion piece.


----------



## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> OK, I read it.
> 
> I knew I'd regret it.
> 
> It's ridiculous. And dull, stacked full of cliche and ignorance.


The post on here citing Hitchins????


----------



## Unkraut (29 Mar 2020)

Glow worm said:


> Hitchens could have saved himself a lot of effort there by simply just typing 'look at what a complete tool I am' as both that, and the article lead readers to the same conclusion.


I don't have the time of day for most of Hitchens' ("we've entered a Gestapo/Stasi state") commenters, but I think he genuinely cares that people are dying but that the economic damage will make this worse in the long term for the general health of the population. I think he is right to bring up reasonable dissenting opinions on how govts are reacting, but he's not convinced me. 

It is important that the govt's actions are scrutinised by Parliament, and that it doesn't award itself extraordinary powers and then be unwilling to give them up again when the current emergency is over.

His view would gain more traction if the lockdown is unnecessarily prolonged, but we don't know that will be the case yet.


----------



## StuAff (29 Mar 2020)

Hitchens has been talking total BS on this (admittedly, that's true for about 99.99 recurring % of his articles). It shouldn't be too hard for anyone to understand that 'hope for the best, prepare for the worst' would be a good idea in the current situation, but it clearly is for him....


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I don't have the time of day for most of Hitchens' ("we've entered a Gestapo/Stasi state") commenters, but I think he genuinely cares that people are dying but that the economic damage will make this worse in the long term for the general health of the population. I think he is right to bring up reasonable dissenting opinions on how govts are reacting, but he's not convinced me.
> 
> It is important that the govt's actions are scrutinised by Parliament, and that it doesn't award itself extraordinary powers and then be unwilling to give them up again when the current emergency is over.
> 
> His view would gain more traction if the lockdown is unnecessarily prolonged, but we don't know that will be the case yet.



He's flat wrong on the science he quotes to make his case. 

Just utterly wrong.


----------



## Rezillo (29 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> He's flat wrong on the science he quotes to make his case.
> 
> Just utterly wrong.



Yep. Yet another article where the author acts like those drivers who follow their satnav instructions into a river. Clinging to information that they choose and want to believe while blind to the reality of what is around them.

Hollywood has a lot to answer for when it comes to belief in fringe views and mavericks.


----------



## mjr (29 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Unimpressive performance by the Channel 4 News hack who couldn't get Dr Jenny Harries' name correct when he asked a question in the live press conference just now.


Who cares if he fluffed a name? Not great, but what about the question?


----------



## Eziemnaik (29 Mar 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I don't have the time of day for most of Hitchens' ("we've entered a Gestapo/Stasi state") commenters, but I think he genuinely cares that people are dying but that the economic damage will make this worse in the long term for the general health of the population. I think he is right to bring up reasonable dissenting opinions on how govts are reacting, but he's not convinced me.
> 
> It is important that the govt's actions are scrutinised by Parliament, and that it doesn't award itself extraordinary powers and then be unwilling to give them up again when the current emergency is over.
> 
> His view would gain more traction if the lockdown is unnecessarily prolonged, but we don't know that will be the case yet.


Well, he was right about WMD and war in Iraq, exposed to the public the real mother Theresa, fought for the truth regarding Chemical attacks in Syria, 
I think it is important to have voices like him


----------



## MarkF (29 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Peter Hitchens or Professor Chris Whitty. It’s a difficult choice when it comes to whose advice to believe on Covid.



The problem is not choice between Hitchens and Whitty but making "Is this worth it" a taboo subject. I have noticed journalists who dare raise this question have the online comments facility removed pdq as the pitchforks are raised and torches lit. There are plenty of qualified opinons out there who think the reaction might result in worse health consequences in the UK than the virus could produce, then we have the economic consequences to also consider. 

I have noticed not much going on in the oncology depts lately, how did they slip down the ladder of importance?


----------



## Buck (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> I know it's the wail but interesting non the less.PETER HITCHENS: This Great Panic is foolish, yet our freedom is broken https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...ippled.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead



Every time I’ve seen Hitchens on Question Time he has been an arse and that article is written by an opinionated buffoon who clearly doesn’t want to accept the situation, we, the country, and world are in or play his part in helping reduce the impact of Coronavirus. 

Daffodil.


----------



## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> The problem is not choice between Hitchens and Whitty but making "Is this worth it" a taboo subject. I have noticed journalists who dare raise this question have the online comments facility removed pdq as the pitchforks are raised and torches lit. There are plenty of qualified opinons out there who think the reaction might result in worse health consequences in the UK than the virus could produce, then we have the economic consequences to also consider.
> 
> I have noticed not much going on in the oncology depts lately, how did they slip down the ladder of importance?


If you want economics versus epidemiology, wouldn't Andrew Sentance vs Chris Whitty be a better debate? Hitchins is paid to upset people - he is not paid to inform us.


----------



## Pale Rider (29 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Who cares if he fluffed a name?



Dr Harries for a start.

People tend not to like it when it happens to them - you once ticked me off when I mistakenly transposed letters in your username.

It does cause annoyance because the 'victim' feels the person doing it is being disrespectful.


----------



## Buck (29 Mar 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Well, he was right about WMD and war in Iraq, exposed to the public the real mother Theresa, fought for the truth regarding Chemical attacks in Syria,
> I think it is important to have voices like him



I’m all for investigative journalism, people having a voice and for all of us to be able to put across differing views to the mainstream but he consistently plays the controversy card and loves nothing more than to stir things up. The trouble is that through The Mail he then has many readers believing that his words are truth rather than opinion.


----------



## vickster (29 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> I have noticed not much going on in the oncology depts lately, how did they slip down the ladder of importance?


Since coronavirus hit?
It's been discussed a lot, some treatment has been halted to keep immunocompromised cancer patients out of hospitals where they might be more at risk of catching Covid, also chemotherapy especially and other treatments given to cancer patients such as corticosteroids are immunosuppressive so treatment might be delayed

Cancer patients are part of the shielded group for that reason

with specific cancers - people:

with cancer who are undergoing active chemotherapy or radical radiotherapy for lung cancer
with cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia, lymphoma or myeloma who are at any stage of treatment
having immunotherapy or other continuing antibody treatments for cancer
having other targeted cancer treatments which can affect the immune system, such as protein kinase inhibitors or PARP inhibitors
who have had bone marrow or stem cell transplants in the last 6 months, or who are still taking immunosuppression drugs
Edited @Brompton Bruce found the list


----------



## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Dr Harries for a start.
> 
> People tend not to like it when it happens to them - you once ticked me off when I mistakenly transposed letters in your username.
> 
> It does cause annoyance because the 'victim' feels the person doing it is being disrespectful.


Although it happens all the time.....I remember one my wife's colleagues getting a letter, which started Dear Poof Yudkin.

He kept it as a badge of honour.


----------



## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Since coronavirus hit?
> It's been discussed a lot, some treatment has been halted to keep immunocompromised cancer patients out of hospitals where they might be more at risk of catching Covid, also chemotherapy especially and other treatments given to cancer patients such as corticosteroids are immunosuppressive so treatment might be delayed
> 
> Cancer patients are part of the shielded group for that reason
> ...


Spot on!! Here's the list from Gov.uk website:

People falling into this extremely vulnerable group include:


Solid organ transplant recipients.
People with specific cancers:
people with cancer who are undergoing active chemotherapy or radical radiotherapy for lung cancer
people with cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia, lymphoma or myeloma who are at any stage of treatment
people having immunotherapy or other continuing antibody treatments for cancer
people having other targeted cancer treatments which can affect the immune system, such as protein kinase inhibitors or PARP inhibitors
people who have had bone marrow or stem cell transplants in the last 6 months, or who are still taking immunosuppression drugs

People with severe respiratory conditions including all cystic fibrosis, severe asthma and severe COPD.
People with rare diseases and inborn errors of metabolism that significantly increase the risk of infections (such as SCID, homozygous sickle cell).
People on immunosuppression therapies sufficient to significantly increase risk of infection.
Women who are pregnant with significant heart disease, congenital or acquired.
Shielding is for your personal protection. It is your choice to decide whether to follow the measures we advise. Individuals who have been given a prognosis of less than 6 months to live, and some others in special circumstances, could decide not to undertake shielding. This will be a deeply personal decision. We advise calling your GP or specialist to discuss this.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (29 Mar 2020)

For psychological relief, a graph that goes down: the fall in the growth rate for the hardest-hit countries. (US figs thought unreliable because of a testing backlog.)


----------



## Eziemnaik (29 Mar 2020)

Buck said:


> I’m all for investigative journalism, people having a voice and for all of us to be able to put across differing views to the mainstream but he consistently plays the controversy card and loves nothing more than to stir things up. The trouble is that through The Mail he then has many readers believing that his words are truth rather than opinion.


Didn't he also highlight the link between Neil Ferguson and vaccine makers during infamous swineflu episode in 2009?
It might be controversy but when proven right it looks different
(And yes, I recognize how research Grant's work nowadays, nevertheless...)


----------



## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Didn't he also highlight the link between Neil Ferguson and vaccine makers during infamous swineflu episode in 2009?
> It might be controversy but when proven right it looks different


I think if you are critiquing Ferguson, you would be better to look at his current COVID model and find weaknesses in that..........even if he had links to vaccine makers in the past, judge his work now. It seems a bit lazy to dismiss everything someone does because a link in 2009?


----------



## Buck (29 Mar 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Didn't he also highlight the link between Neil Ferguson and vaccine makers during infamous swineflu episode in 2009?
> It might be controversy but when proven right it looks different



I’ve no idea as I don’t follow his column. 

Still, if you look at his column quoted by @oldfatfool as an entire piece it lays a pretence that’s the lock down and temporary restriction on the freedoms we have been accustomed to are false. 

Perhaps he should work alongside our front line health medics and write his piece from there having experienced the harrowing reality of what he feels is not worth the impact on our liberties or our economy.


----------



## Eziemnaik (29 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think if you are critiquing Ferguson, you would be better to look at his current COVID model and find weaknesses in that..........even if he had links to vaccine makers in the past, judge his work now. It seems a bit lazy to dismiss everything someone does because a link in 2009?


Except that I didn't do it
I do not endorse most of the views of Hitchens,
I do not dismiss entire work of Ferguson
I think an important has been made by people we might not agree with that the cure should not be worse than the disease
It is very easy to criticize governments for the deaths and gloom caused by austerity in 2008, would we do the same in 2030???


----------



## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Except that I didn't do it


So what is your opinion on Ferguson's model? Tell us your views rather than quoting Hitchins.


----------



## Julia9054 (29 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Although it happens all the time.....I remember one my wife's colleagues getting a letter, which started Dear Poof Yudkin.
> 
> He kept it as a badge of honour.


Got a great one in an email from a yr 7 pupil.
It starts "Dear Mrs Sadness"
I assumed hilarious typo but have since had another email from the same child addressed the same. Does she think that is my name?


----------



## Eziemnaik (29 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> So what is your opinion on Ferguson's model? Tell us your views rather than quoting Hitchins.


Many smarter people than me decided to follow it, I hope to the benefit to everyone
If we shunt all opposing voices though it is becoming ideology


----------



## Pale Rider (29 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> For psychological relief, a graph that goes down: the fall in the growth rate for the hardest-hit countries. (US figs thought unreliable because of a testing backlog.)
> View attachment 511242



Oo, another graph to misinterpret.

Doesn't it indicate our infection rate was in overall decline prior to lock down?

I thought it was increasing.


----------



## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Except that I didn't do it
> I do not endorse most of the views of Hitchens,
> I do not dismiss entire work of Ferguson
> I think an important has been made by people we might not agree with that the cure should not be worse than the disease
> It is very easy to criticize governments for the deaths and gloom caused by austerity in 2008, would we do the same in 2030???


How much are we prepared to pay so that our elderly loved ones don't die? Death from interstitial pneumonia is like drowning over a period of 24 hrs. It's a horrible death. Our frontline NHS staff are at risk. What price would you put on these deaths? I've mentioned this before, there is a general practice round the corner from us where 30 of the 32 staff are off sick (some are very ill). Even if we decided not to lockdown, I would argue that industry would grind to a halt because of the impact of this.

It is also worth noting that almost every other country in the world is taking the same decision. Even if we decided not to lockdown, we are so dependent on others in this global age, the impact on GDP would effectively be the same. There isnt a choice.


----------



## marinyork (29 Mar 2020)

756 deaths in Italy. Yet another day of high deaths without knowing what it means. Some regions really appear to not be rising that much.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> The problem is not choice between Hitchens and Whitty but making "Is this worth it" a taboo subject. I have noticed journalists who dare raise this question have the online comments facility removed pdq as the pitchforks are raised and torches lit. There are plenty of qualified opinons out there who think the reaction might result in worse health consequences in the UK than the virus could produce, then we have the economic consequences to also consider.
> 
> I have noticed not much going on in the oncology depts lately, how did they slip down the ladder of importance?



I think that debate is absolutely fine. Indeed I've made points along those lines above. 

What is NOT fine is to deliberately deceive about the real consequences of the current epidemic, which is what Hitchens was doing.


----------



## Rezillo (29 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Although it happens all the time.....I remember one my wife's colleagues getting a letter, which started Dear Poof Yudkin.
> 
> He kept it as a badge of honour.



That takes me back. Was he the Yudkin of Yudkin and Offord?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> For psychological relief, a graph that goes down: the fall in the growth rate for the hardest-hit countries. (US figs thought unreliable because of a testing backlog.)
> View attachment 511242



Is it just me or does the uk one not really go down beyond a smidgen?


----------



## oldfatfool (29 Mar 2020)

I knew linking the wail would lighten things 😂 however one thing is true in his article the public are being encouraged to grass up a neighbour, it is all a bit too reminiscent of the gestapo and Himmler. (yippee we have got round to the nazis and it as only taken 365 pages) 😇


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (29 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Is it just me or does the uk one not really go down beyond a smidgen?


It's too early to see the effects, if any worthy of note, of lockdown.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> ...one thing is true in his article...



One more than anticipated then.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (29 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Oo, another graph to misinterpret.
> 
> Doesn't it indicate our infection rate was in overall decline prior to lock down?
> 
> I thought it was increasing.


It's percentages. The first case would have registered 100% and the figure descends from there.


----------



## mjr (29 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Dr Harries for a start.
> 
> People tend not to like it when it happens to them - you once ticked me off when I mistakenly transposed letters in your username.
> 
> It does cause annoyance because the 'victim' feels the person doing it is being disrespectful.


And the correct thing to do then is for the committer to apologise and correct, while the victim moves on to the substantive question and don't carry a grudge for ages, and decent reporters report the Q&A, not the slip.


----------



## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> That takes me back. Was he the Yudkin of Yudkin and Offord?


A relation of his!!


----------



## marinyork (29 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Who cares if he fluffed a name? Not great, but what about the question?



Didn't see it but Harries is a surname that is pronounced very differently depending on who it is. I have known one lot of Harries that preferred it one way and one other family the other way.


----------



## Pale Rider (29 Mar 2020)

marinyork said:


> Didn't see it but Harries is a surname that is pronounced very differently depending on who it is. I have known one lot of Harries that preferred it one way and one other family the other way.



He called her Paris.


----------



## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> He called her Paris.


I've been called worse but I agree, it's not good, particularly for a reporter. I seem to remember people stumbled over Jeremy Hunt's name too.


----------



## marinyork (29 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> He called her Paris.



That one's pretty bad, but it was over video. Telephone/video similar sounding letter mistakes are common.


----------



## Rezillo (29 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> A relation of his!!



Wow! Their book (and Lehninger's) was an instrument of torture to 1970s biochemistry students.


----------



## Rocky (29 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Wow! Their book (and Lehninger's) was an instrument of torture to 1970s biochemistry students.


Absolutely - I read biochemistry at Kings, London, from 1975-78. Lehninger was my bible. I still have my copy.


----------



## Johnno260 (29 Mar 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It's too early to see the effects, if any worthy of note, of lockdown.



also many muppets who decided to still meet up in the 1-2 days after lockdown, so it’s just over another week, possible 1.5weeks before we see a slowdown from the lock down.
Look at these idiots who had a karaoke party that got broken up by the police.


----------



## vickster (29 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> also many muppets who decided to still meet up in the 1-2 days after lockdown, so it’s just over another week, possible 1.5weeks before we see a slowdown from the lock down.
> Look at these idiots who had a karaoke party that got broken up by the police.


I hope they fined every single person there  and the parents extra for every child present


----------



## mjr (29 Mar 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Initial figures currently show of those who are put on ventilation roughly half make it, and half don't.


Does it? Initial figures I saw suggested that most of those put on ventilators were surviving but still on ventilators.


----------



## PK99 (29 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Does it? Initial figures I saw suggested that most of those put on ventilators were surviving but still on ventilators.



Correct.



The Guardian headline is a deliberate (?) distortion:

Table 1: 775 confirmed cases have entered ICU

Table 2: Critical care has ended for 165 cases: 82 alive (52.1%) 79 dead (47.9%)

That is not the same as 50% mortality for those entering critical care or in ICU


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (29 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> RecordAceFromNew said:
> 
> 
> > Initial figures currently show of those who are put on ventilation roughly half make it, and half don't.
> ...



It does I think.

Firstly, I think it is important to note that according to the Italians e.g., one key lesson learnt*, in terms of ICU/ventilation support for COVID patients, is ventilation is required for a long time, usually over 2 weeks, for a patient.

If you then look at the ICNARC report dated 26th, you will see that the vast majority (over 95%) of the cases started after 12th March. What that means, is that the only meaningful statistics one can gleaned something from at this stage initially are the numbers of those with a certain outcome: i.e. those who died (79) and those who were discharged (86) - it is not reasonable to count those who are still being treated, because one can't say whether they will survive or not having been in for under 2 weeks, with some perhaps only days if not hours.

I think c50% survival rate out of the ICUs has also been the Chinese experience. Given the numbers/% fatality, I suspect it is worse in Italy.

* as a matter of interest there are two key clinical implications regarding the c2+ weeks requirement for ventilation - the first is that those who have other issues, such as heart, renal etc. pre-existing conditions often won't make it over the two weeks because of those conditions flaring up as a result of insufficient oxygen** in the blood to and thereby compromising those organs, before them being drowned by or saved from pneumonia by allowing the lungs to recover, which ventilation can just about address. The second implication is the substantial healthcare human resource required, to maintain constant support to each patient for the duration of the ventilation treatment.

** for those interested, here is where the ECMO machines come in - unlike ventilation which essentially is jamming a tube of oxygen in one's throat when sedated, these machines actually take blood out of the vein of a patient, oxygenate it, and pump it back into an artery. These machines therefore do not rely on the dicky lungs to keep the other organs in good shape. The problem, is there are only 30 ECMO beds in the whole country.

But I am not a doctor (well not a medical one), so the above is just what I read / think to be the case...


----------



## Johnno260 (29 Mar 2020)

The places that offer ECMO are few as well so the bed space is spread out meaning less beds per region, it’s highly specialised so we have few people trained in it.
I have seen that a 27yr old has now died as well no underlying health issues, but a fact I would like to know were the young deaths smokers.


----------



## Pale Rider (29 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I've been called worse but I agree, it's not good, particularly for a reporter. I seem to remember people stumbled over Jeremy Hunt's name too.



I've called you worse.

I'm not trying to make a big point of it, but it was a particularly crass error to make at a televised and the biggest conference of the day, and when you have the number one slot.

Going first is the best place to be because you get the chance to ask the best question.

Things inevitably get repetitious as more questions are asked.

I expect the No10 press office will be drawing lots in advance to decide the running order.


----------



## Tanis8472 (29 Mar 2020)

dear god

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...and-saunas-will-ward-off-coronavirus-11965396


----------



## Edwardoka (29 Mar 2020)

America taking it seriously then






I've tried to avoid looking at the numbers because they bring me to despair, but it's looking likely that New York State on its own will have more new cases by the end of the day than any country in the world (apart from the US). When these active cases start reaching the critical stage it's going to be an unimaginable catastrophe. If it were a country it'd already have the sixth highest number of cases. And yet the planes keep flying.


----------



## Edwardoka (29 Mar 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> dear god
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...and-saunas-will-ward-off-coronavirus-11965396


They're a landlocked nation surrounded entirely by countries that have closed all land borders, so good luck to them.


----------



## kingrollo (29 Mar 2020)

Is a ventilator different from an ICU bed ? Or part of it ?


----------



## vickster (29 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Is a ventilator different from an ICU bed ? Or part of it ?


Coronavirus: What are ventilators and why are they important? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52036948
They are also used in surgery for example


----------



## Venod (29 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> America taking it seriously then



I noticed a lot flight's over Europe, so googled why, I didn't find any reference to Coronavirus, but I found out that airlines often fly ghost planes to keep their take off and landing windows which they have payed for, and would loose if not used, I don't know if it is still going on during this crisis but it needs stopping at any time, common sense needs to prevail over money.


----------



## mjr (29 Mar 2020)

News from Belgium: slight fall in deaths yesterday back up today, use of drones with thermal camera to identify second homes potentially being used in defiance of the lockdown, masks used by triage medics seemingly not working, 8% of admissions to Hospital UZ Brussels tested covid19-positive, worries about Paris running out of ICU beds and sending patients to Grand Est, tips for teaching at home, bakers struggling with unpredictable uneven demand, 10'000 reconditioned laptops for students at home (means-tested I think), keep-fit videos on blijf.sporten.be


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## mjr (29 Mar 2020)

Sorry, yesterday's deaths attached twice. This should be today's


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## Cuchilo (29 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> I noticed a lot flight's over Europe, so googled why, I didn't find any reference to Coronavirus, but I found out that airlines often fly ghost planes to keep their take off and landing windows which they have payed for, and would loose if not used, I don't know if it is still going on during this crisis but it needs stopping at any time, common sense needs to prevail over money.


I live near Heathrow and just had a plane go over . I see about four or five a day . Last week it was all other airlines but now just BA


----------



## vickster (29 Mar 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> I live near Heathrow and just had a plane go over . I see about four or five a day . Last week it was all other airlines but now just BA


BA are still flying within the UK, to some places in Asia, US and Europe incl Ireland when I looked yesterday


----------



## Edwardoka (29 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> I noticed a lot flight's over Europe, so googled why, I didn't find any reference to Coronavirus, but I found out that airlines often fly ghost planes to keep their take off and landing windows which they have payed for, and would loose if not used, I don't know if it is still going on during this crisis but it needs stopping at any time, common sense needs to prevail over money.


The EU suspended the ghost flight rules a few weeks ago. My guess would be that they are mostly cargo flights, with some repatriation flights, and probably a few "business as usual" flights. Quite why there are still flights to and from Milan Malpensa is beyond me.

Flightradar is quite grimly fascinating now that there's fewer flights.


----------



## Johnno260 (29 Mar 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> dear god
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...and-saunas-will-ward-off-coronavirus-11965396


Yea just seen this, hopefully citizens have more sense.
I keep seeing younger and younger people claimed by this, that’s a sinister turn considering we have been told children seem resilient.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (29 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Yea just seen this, hopefully citizens have more sense.
> I keep seeing younger and younger people claimed by this, that’s a sinister turn considering we have been told children seem resilient.



They are still susceptible and still die. Just smaller percentages. But with the “apparent” news they are immune I think many are taking less precautions. So more of them are getting infected. So a smaller percentage but much larger number of infections will lead to the number of deaths in the under 30s increasing towards that of the over 60s.

Plus bad western diets and more sedentary life styles mean they are biologically older than their chronological age.


----------



## ozboz (29 Mar 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> I live near Heathrow and just had a plane go over . I see about four or five a day . Last week it was all other airlines but now just BA


I live under the landing flight path of Heathrow , Richmond , a very noticeable drop off of aircraft noise .,


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## Johnno260 (29 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> They are still susceptible and still die. Just smaller percentages. But with the “apparent” news they are immune I think many are taking less precautions. So more of them are getting infected. So a smaller percentage but much larger number of infections will lead to the number of deaths in the under 30s increasing towards that of the over 60s.
> 
> Plus bad western diets and more sedentary life styles mean they are biologically older than their chronological age.


I think it being reported that kids are more resilient hasn't helped.
With older people 18+, I would like to see if deaths and healthy people means they're non smokers as well


----------



## DaveReading (30 Mar 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> I live near Heathrow and just had a plane go over . I see about four or five a day . Last week it was all other airlines but now just BA



You may only have noticed BA, but there are over 50 airlines still operating flights into Heathrow.


----------



## Wobblers (30 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The 'Dear Patient' letter indicates all clinics have been cancelled.
> 
> I accept it's a reasonable measure to reduce the risk of the consultants and their staff being forced off work by the virus.
> 
> ...



It's probably also a measure intended to protect their patients. Hospitals are increasingly becoming somewhere that CV-19 patients are concentrated so maintaining normal outpatient services would likely increase the chances of the patients catching it. Add to this the typically crowded waiting hospital rooms - just the perfect environment to spread the illness and it seems sensible to reduce that if possible.

Whatever happens, I hope things work out okay for you.


----------



## Wobblers (30 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> In the context of bloody cvid19 it is, the jab doesn't stop the flu, there are still 000000's of deaths and a lock down would stop a vast majority of them but the don't lock down do they.



In the UK, a bad flu season kills around 300 people with viral pneumonia. C-19 so far has killed over 1200 (as of 28th March). This number is doubling every 3 days. The excess mortality data that the CDC uses to estimate flu deaths is controversial within epidemiological circles because less than 5% of the deaths it counts can be directly attributed to flu. In other words, it overestimates the impact of flu. Italy has already seen more deaths than even the excess mortality figures - and the epidemic there still shows little signs of stopping! How much more evidence do you need?


----------



## Pale Rider (30 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> It's probably also a measure intended to protect their patients. Hospitals are increasingly becoming somewhere that CV-19 patients are concentrated so maintaining normal outpatient services would likely increase the chances of the patients catching it. Add to this the typically crowded waiting hospital rooms - just the perfect environment to spread the illness and it seems sensible to reduce that if possible.
> 
> Whatever happens, I hope things work out okay for you.



Thanks.

The number of stand alone chairs in the clinic waiting room has been reduced to give extra distance between them.

There's always been a sink and gel in the one I use, presumably to reduce the impact of hospital 'super bugs'.

Using the sink is now being more actively encouraged.

There may be other patient protection measures I've not noticed.



McWobble said:


> How much more evidence do you need?



Quite.

Seems to me broad agreement is emerging about some aspects of this virus outbreak.

One is that it cannot usefully be compared with flu.

Another is that lockdown/social distancing does have some impact in controlling its spread.


----------



## oldfatfool (30 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> In the UK, a bad flu season kills around 300 people with viral pneumonia. C-19 so far has killed over 1200 (as of 28th March). This number is doubling every 3 days. The excess mortality data that the CDC uses to estimate flu deaths is controversial within epidemiological circles because less than 5% of the deaths it counts can be directly attributed to flu. In other words, it overestimates the impact of flu. Italy has already seen more deaths than even the excess mortality figures - and the epidemic there still shows little signs of stopping! How much more evidence do you need?


If you are correct then I accept your point. Having not moved from my home for over a week then Google as been my point of reference and the figures that come up for flu are horrendous, and whilst I know covid 19 isn't the flu but is the same as sars mers bird flu etc I had difficulty comprehending why so many deaths per year from flu could be accepted without locking the world down (cdc suggest 290000 minimum) when surely the same sort of social distancing rules would lead. To many fewer deaths from flu.


----------



## mjr (30 Mar 2020)

News from Switzerland: airplane of masks expected into Geneva next week, worries about Italy, a face off between national and canton governments about enforcing business closures, note that the German firms Adidas, H&M and Deichman have stopped paying their rents in closed stores in line with German government policy but to public annoyance of government politicians, cancellation of Wimbledon and the balloon d'Or ceremony.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (30 Mar 2020)

People just want to help their neighbours


View: https://twitter.com/meladoodle/status/1244477865363529729


----------



## mjr (30 Mar 2020)

Does anyone here know why shoot video conference app Zoom is being used so much? After bugs allowing webcam hijacks and design flaw enabling porny "zoombombing", it now appears they were sending data to facebook clandestinely! They pled incompetence with the Software Development Kit, which isn't reassuring: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...book-even-if-you-dont-have-a-facebook-account

If any of you lovely people are using it, consider switching to better things like talky, jitsi or even straight video calls.


----------



## dutchguylivingintheuk (30 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> In the UK, a bad flu season kills around 300 people with viral pneumonia. C-19 so far has killed over 1200 (as of 28th March). This number is doubling every 3 days. The excess mortality data that the CDC uses to estimate flu deaths is controversial within epidemiological circles because less than 5% of the deaths it counts can be directly attributed to flu. In other words, it overestimates the impact of flu. Italy has already seen more deaths than even the excess mortality figures - and the epidemic there still shows little signs of stopping! How much more evidence do you need?


I think the ''flu like symtons'' are taken out of context with the whole ''it's just a flu'' thing. surely it is not Flu is known, just as medication for it, cv-19 is a corona virus so unknown in many many respects.


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## SpokeyDokey (30 Mar 2020)

Sorry if already posted - trying to read every post in this fast moving thread is tricky!

Sweden taking a very different approach by all accounts:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293


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## Ming the Merciless (30 Mar 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> I live near Heathrow and just had a plane go over . I see about four or five a day . Last week it was all other airlines but now just BA



We live under flight paths and can usually hear a few after we go to bed. But it’s silent as the night. No car noise from motorway either


----------



## Rezillo (30 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Sorry if already posted - trying to read every post in this fast moving thread is tricky!
> 
> Sweden taking a very different approach by all accounts:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293



Possibly much for cultural reasons:

https://www.politico.eu/article/social-distance-swedish-style/

That's an interesting essay, coronavirus or no coronavirus.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Possibly much for cultural reasons:
> 
> https://www.politico.eu/article/social-distance-swedish-style/
> 
> That's an interesting essay, coronavirus or no coronavirus.



Interesting quote from the linked article:

_“Don’t know what all this ‘loneliness’ fuss is about. You’re not really alone if everyone else is.” _


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## SpokeyDokey (30 Mar 2020)

Easter Eggs and over-zealous officialdom getting some press here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52090441


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## Mike_P (30 Mar 2020)

In normal times if you followed someone 2m behind at their pace they would quickly be phoning the police


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## Ming the Merciless (30 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Easter Eggs and over-zealous officialdom getting some press here:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52090441



Indeed some police forces haven’t got a clue what the important elements to concentrate on are. They need to calm the fark down and luck at what the measures are there to address, then focus on that.


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## kingrollo (30 Mar 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> If you are correct then I accept your point. Having not moved from my home for over a week then Google as been my point of reference and the figures that come up for flu are horrendous, and whilst I know covid 19 isn't the flu but is the same as sars mers bird flu etc I had difficulty comprehending why so many deaths per year from flu could be accepted without locking the world down (cdc suggest 290000 minimum) when surely the same sort of social distancing rules would lead. To many fewer deaths from flu.


There's no need to lockdown for flu as there is a vaccination. If you have been on Google you will surely know there isn't a vaccine for covid 19.


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## PK99 (30 Mar 2020)

Interesting article here>

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/reduce-covid-19-viral-load/

_Viral load. I first heard about it, as you may have done too, via social media. A letter, supposedly from an ICU (intensive care unit) doctor, popped up on Instagram on Tuesday morning, March 24th, warning that this was one reason it why, when it comes to the coronavirus, it is so important to avoid groups of people, even if you are young and healthy.

“Remember this: VIRAL LOAD. There will be a lot about this, why is it important?” the letter stated. “With this virus, the amount of virus in your blood at first infection directly relates to the severity of the illness you will suffer.” It went on to explain how being in a group, “say in a pub or religious building or entertainment venue with 200 people and a large number don’t have symptoms, but are shedding, you are breathing in lots of droplets per minute and absorbing a high dose of the virus.”

##


Professor Wendy Barclay, Head of Department of Infectious Disease, at Imperial College London and Action Medical Research Chair Virology, an expert in the flu virus, who is now researching the coronavirus, says when it comes to coronavirus viral load is indeed important in how the infection will play out.
“Viral load is simply a term for how much virus a person has got,” says *Professor Barclay. “In general with respiratory viruses, whether you get severely ill or only get a mild cold – can sometimes be determined by how much virus actually got into your body and started the infection off.* Think about the analogy of two armies at battle. The outcome of the infection is your own immune system, whose army is of a fixed size and doesn’t change, versus the virus, whose army gets bigger and bigger as it replicates, but also starts off at different sizes. “
With flu, I quite often describe it like this: if you sit next to somebody and they cough right in your face, you’ll probably get a huge amount of virus, but if there is someone on the other side of the bus that breathes, by the time the virus is diluted in all the other air you don’t get very much. And the battle between the virus and your own immune system is weighed comparatively depending on the size of the army at the start.”

This is why doctors are very badly affected. “The procedures doctors are doing mean they are up close to the face taking a swab, or doing an intubation (a procedure performed when you can’t breathe on your own), and despite the fact that we hope that they are wearing protective equipment, they may be exposed to more virus in the air than the average person would normally be.” 




_


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## Venod (30 Mar 2020)

This article from the Spector is very interesting.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...42VCPu6IhdJ8kRnVHAQhnpc3l8SyL-8XU8oE9XQA4S9vY


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## kingrollo (30 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> Interesting article here>
> 
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/reduce-covid-19-viral-load/
> 
> ...



Makes sense - I have been thinking why front line staff seem to get it bad - the above explains it perfectly.

Another thing I have read a lot of - is that patients make a recovery - then it comes back with a vengeance - very often requiring hospital treatment.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> This article from the Spector is very interesting.
> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...42VCPu6IhdJ8kRnVHAQhnpc3l8SyL-8XU8oE9XQA4S9vY


I stopped reading at:-

"Boris Johnson resolutely followed the scientific advice that he had been given".


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> This article from the Spector is very interesting.
> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...42VCPu6IhdJ8kRnVHAQhnpc3l8SyL-8XU8oE9XQA4S9vY



In common with most such, two tactics are used to argue for low impact:

1) Current mortality is used - ignoring the fact that the projected final death rate is why action is being taken, not the body count today. 

2) The fact that death rates as only as low as they are because of the measures taken is ignored.

There is a genuine debate to be had as to the cost/ benefit of suppressing COVID is. That this article, and all other similar ones I've seen, uses sleight of hand to skew that debate, suggests that we're doing the right thing at the moment. 

As we learn more about the disease and how to tackle it, we'll see.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> In common with most such, two tactics are used to argue for low impact:
> 
> 1) Current mortality is used - ignoring the fact that the projected final death rate is why action is being taken, not the body count today.
> 
> ...



I was sure I ready very early - when it was still only in china - That WHO had done a very small study in Wuhan and the findings were that there wasn't any evidence to suggest that there were large numbers of undiagnosed cases - in general if you got it - you knew about it.


----------



## stowie (30 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> 2) The fact that death rates as only as low as they are because of the measures taken is ignored.



This is what I call "The Millenium Bug Fallacy". 

People use the millenium bug as an example of hype, when it is actually an example of measures being taken. Where the millenium bug was missed, some horrible consequences happened such as expectant mothers being given false positive results for Downs Syndrome.

No-one really knows the outcome of not doing something, unless there is a control country which elects this course of action, but even then it is quite probably not a fair comparison due to different population densities, cultures and so on. The best we have are the models which can be modified to take into account different measures etc.

I think it is important to consider the effect of the measures on the economy since this will also have a big effect on peoples' wellbeing, but we cannot underestimate the impact of the collapse of the NHS under the weight of COVID victims either - this would be catastrophic for the nation's wellbeing.


----------



## tom73 (30 Mar 2020)

New wave of panic buying on way 
Tunnock’s has ceased production in response to the Covid-19 , the company has announced.
I've got a packet of wafers .... bidding is now open


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## PK99 (30 Mar 2020)

View attachment 511409


Richmond park this morning


----------



## Mugshot (30 Mar 2020)

winjim said:


> You know what I think.


Trump's approval ratings are up, so, you know...


----------



## Rezillo (30 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> This article from the Spector is very interesting.
> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...42VCPu6IhdJ8kRnVHAQhnpc3l8SyL-8XU8oE9XQA4S9vY



There's a lot wrong with that article, mainly points that can rather better be used to argue against the author's stance than for him. However, rather than post an essay, here's one issue.

"The UK’s lockdown has been informed by modelling of what might happen. More needs to be known about these models. Do they correct for age, pre-existing conditions, changing virulence, the effects of death certification and other factors?"

If I were to admit publically that I knew nothing about key aspects of the models being used to determine the policy I was criticising, I'd pipe down.


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## stowie (30 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> View attachment 511409
> 
> 
> Richmond park this morning



Will that policeman give himself a fine for not keeping the 2m distance?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> This article from the Spector is very interesting.
> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...42VCPu6IhdJ8kRnVHAQhnpc3l8SyL-8XU8oE9XQA4S9vY


It's not clear that he isn't comparing annual mortality rates with Covid-19 rates, which don't have a year's data. Covid-19 rates will appear far lower because it hasn't been around long enough to figure in the annual statistics. Of course, he might have compensated for this, but I'd have liked to have known how this was done.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (30 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> New wave of panic buying on way
> Tunnock’s has ceased production in response to the Covid-19 , the company has announced.
> I've got a packet of wafers .... bidding is now open



shoot just got real, yo.

Edit: Plain or milk chocolate?


----------



## DCLane (30 Mar 2020)

Finally got round to watching the BBC4 programme Contagion, linked further upthread: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic


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## tom73 (30 Mar 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> shoot just got real, yo.
> 
> Edit: Plain or milk chocolate?


milk


----------



## mjr (30 Mar 2020)

News from Belgium: deaths increase again, some good news stories about the recovered 1500ish, a look at South Korea where they're keeping the outbreak contained by doing 60'000 tests/day, a look at the medical facilities being built in Brussels (by Médicins Sans Frontières) and New York (by Samaritan's Purse) in conference centres (pictured NY one but both looked similar) and in NY's Central Park, Italy now using churches and freezer lorries as overflow morgues because the crematoria cannot keep up and mixed news for Belgian foresters: they can now fell again after an swine fever outbreak was controlled but few wood-using businesses are still trading to buy the wood.


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## mjr (30 Mar 2020)

News from France: 292 deaths in a day, total now 2606; 40k confirmed cases; Spain reports 812 deaths in a day, total now 7340.


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## Rezillo (30 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> New wave of panic buying on way
> Tunnock’s has ceased production in response to the Covid-19 , the company has announced.
> I've got a packet of wafers .... bidding is now open



Thanks for the heads-up. I'm currently holding back an angry mob of villagers armed with pitchforks and flaming torches.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Mar 2020)

My attempt at an honest cost/benefit of current restrictions, after reading those posted above from Mail and Spectator.

What’s the consequence of not acting on COVID: 500,000 deaths by COVID within a few weeks, and probably many more through overwhelm of the healthcare system.
What’s the consequence of distancing at current levels for a few weeks for COVID: 10% GDP loss and massive inconvenience
What’s the consequence of distancing at current levels for many months for COVID: I’d guess societal collapse would follow such an attempted action as our infrastructure slowly failed, and food production was impacted.
How long do we need to maintain distancing at current levels to suppress the virus: nobody knows.
What will happen when distancing is relaxed: There will be recurrence of the pestilence, nobody knows how virulently, but potentially close to current rates of increase as we are probably nowhere near herd immunity levels (and nobody knows how long immunity lasts)
What are alternatives to distancing: Test and trace with surveillance (see Korea, China outside Hubei, Singapore), vaccine, antiviral drugs. Nobody knows when, or even if a vaccine will be possible. Antiviral drugs are generally of limited benefit to acute infections.
All numbers and unreferenced assertions plucked from the air by Roubaix Research and have considerable uncertainty.

Conclusion: it’s worth it, for now. Need to work hard on an effective strategy to relax restrictions once the peak has passed. At least one of liberties, economy or mortality will suffer whatever we decide to do, and probably all three.

How's that?


----------



## PK99 (30 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> , a look at South Korea where they're keeping the outbreak contained by doing 60'000 tests/day,



It is not the testing that is keeping the outbreak contained is the the use of centralised state resources to track and trace the movements of all testing positive and all their contacts via Mobile phone tracking linked to state ID cards.


----------



## mjr (30 Mar 2020)

ONS weekly stats to start including non-hospital covid-19 deaths. Expect a jump.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ONS/status/1244575905940492289?p=v


Dominic "the PM's brain" Cummings tests positive https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnsons-chief-aide-21778510


----------



## Blue Hills (30 Mar 2020)

May be old news but had a mail from essex county council saying that these country parks are closed.

Belhus Woods Country Park
Cressing Temple Barns
Cudmore Grove Country Park
Danbury Country Park
Great Notley Country Park
Hadleigh Country Park
Marsh Farm Country Park
Sky Ropes at Great Notley
Thorndon North Country Park
Thorndon South County Park
Weald Country Park


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## Dave Davenport (30 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> New wave of panic buying on way
> Tunnock’s has ceased production in response to the Covid-19 , the company has announced.
> I've got a packet of wafers .... bidding is now open


I've been buying the Lidl version for ages anyway.


----------



## mjr (30 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> It is not the testing that is keeping the outbreak contained is the the use of centralised state resources to track and trace the movements of all testing positive and all their contacts via Mobile phone tracking linked to state ID cards.


That may be but it's not at all how it was reported. The emphasis was very much on the scale of testing - probably because Belgium is in a similar position to the UK, just about starting to test medics and all hospitalised suspected cases, with no capacity for large-scale diagnostic testing any time soon.

Browsing further, it looked like "trace the movements of ... all their contacts" does not mean the contacts book on their phones, but any other smartphones connected to the same cell mast combinations as the person testing positive, with the South Korean government being criticised for sending mobile network alerts to loads of phones and sometimes leaking personal data of the victims; and I didn't find that mobile phones were linked to ID cards (unlike Taiwan) but maybe I looked in the wrong places.

Another country mentioned as doing lots more testing that Belgium was Germany, which has registered only 560 deaths from 83½m people so far, compared to Belgium's 513 deaths from 11½m (or the UK's 1228 from 68m). This may explain the numbers of cases: Germany 64'000, Belgium about 12'000 (UK 19'500).


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## mjr (30 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> May be old news but had a mail from essex county council saying that these country parks are closed.


Does the mail give any reason why they feel that kettling their residents into even fewer open spaces during the spread of a proximity-correlated pandemic is a good idea?

I'll add "Essex County Council" to the list of governments keen to kill its voters, alongside "France" and "Ireland".


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## glasgowcyclist (30 Mar 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> I've been buying the Lidl version for ages anyway.



A passable substitute, as are the Aldi copies.
However, I've yet to find an equal to the mighty Tunnock's Teacake


----------



## vickster (30 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> A passable substitute, as are the Aldi copies.
> However, I've yet to find an equal to the mighty Tunnock's Teacake


M&S salted caramel teacakes are rather lush (if they still do them)


----------



## BoldonLad (30 Mar 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> My Mrs was due to fly to England on Wednesday, flight cancelled so she changed the booking to next Sunday, all good. I mainly avoided the news yesterday so missed an important announcement until this morning. I need to print off a form and tick the box for my reason for being "at large" and I need to date it so one form a trip. Ferrying my Mrs to Limoges so that she can get some business done in the UK is not listed, its life and death stuff only.
> https://www.gouvernement.fr/sites/d...03/attestation_de_deplacement_derogatoire.pdf



We recently (Thursday 19th March - Saturday, 22nd March) travelled through France, by road, Spanish Border to Calais. We had the Attestation document (one each, and one for each day). We had to hand write them, because we had no printer. We added a paragraph, in French, which we got from British Embassy, basically saying we were returning to UK, to our permanent address, and travelling in Motorhome. We were stopped at Police Check Points (twice), in one instance, after initially signalling us to stop, they them waved us on, without actually inspecting documents, in the other instance, Gendarme examined our attestation documents, and, very politely told us to get on our way. Good luck!


----------



## matticus (30 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> _May be old news but had a mail from essex county council saying that these country parks are closed. _​
> Does the mail give any reason why they feel that kettling their residents into even fewer open spaces during the spread of a proximity-correlated
> pandemic is a good idea?
> 
> I'll add "Essex County Council" to the list of governments keen to kill its voters, alongside "France" and "Ireland".


Crazy isn't it?? Meanwhile, Calgary have shut loads of main roads to cars, so that peds/cyclists can exercise!

And Berlin have widened their cycle-lanes.


----------



## BoldonLad (30 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> A passable substitute, as are the Aldi copies.
> *However, I've yet to find an equal to the mighty Tunnock's Teacake*



Agreed. Mrs @BoldonLad is in withdrawal


----------



## Wobblers (30 Mar 2020)

Venod said:


> This article from the Spector is very interesting.
> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...42VCPu6IhdJ8kRnVHAQhnpc3l8SyL-8XU8oE9XQA4S9vY



There are some major errors in that article. Take one statement: "But if we tracked flu or other seasonal viruses in the same way, we would also see an exponential increase". That, while not untrue, is missing one crucial point: these other viruses are considerably less transmittable than CV-19. The number of cases of flu typically take weeks to double. With CV-19, it's 3 days. That can - _and is_, in Italy - overwhelm the medical facilities in short order, increasing mortality for both CV-19 patients and other patients who also need ICU places.

He looks at the data from Iceland - and calculates a mortality rate from it. Yet there is insufficient data from Iceland to make any meaningful conclusions. The numbers are far too small to be able to come up with reliable numbers. That's an appalling bit of science. Any scientific paper going of publication would be rejected with assumptions like that one. Worse than that, the illness has not reached an outcome in most infected Icelanders. The outbreak is still in its early stages: his "0.3% mortality" will go up. 

Also, he compares the excess mortality used by the CDC to estimate the effect of flu with the direct deaths caused by CV-19. These aren't the same thing. In all probability, the excess mortality due to CV-19 will also be higher than the deaths noted in the ICU wards. It'll take time for that to make itself obvious. He seems to be suggesting that we sit back until that signal becomes all too obvious. At that point, it'll be too late to do anything about it.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Sorry if already posted - trying to read every post in this fast moving thread is tricky!
> 
> Sweden taking a very different approach by all accounts:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293



I've had a video conference with Swedish colleagues in the last week where three of them were in the same room - this is absolutely forbidden in the UK by our organisation. Office based employees are still allowed to work from the office, again forbidden in the uk.

Just been chatting to a co- worker; she's been to a cafe this morning and had a coffee, sitting outside alone mind. Restaurants and bars are still open, table service only. No restrictions on exercise or movement. Building work going on as normal.

Her view is that Swedes are very trusting of authority, and are not pushing, and will not push, the boundaries. So lock down not necessary.

I guess we'll see in a month or so how the fatalities are as to whether it's been sufficient.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Mar 2020)

159 deaths today in England.


----------



## tom73 (30 Mar 2020)

So following on from school closing
1st it was 4 days before my line manger out of good will having waited for some official message from management.
Emailed us explaining work was all but off till when ever this is over.
Now the blockheads have lost 2 months of timesheets I personally handed to the very person who needed them.
Due to closure line manger working from home won't be going in till it's her turn in 8 weeks time.
Oh and still no word from management.


----------



## Blue Hills (30 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Does the mail give any reason why they feel that kettling their residents into even fewer open spaces during the spread of a proximity-correlated pandemic is a good idea?
> 
> I'll add "Essex County Council" to the list of governments keen to kill its voters, alongside "France" and "Ireland".


Before the list it says this,


mjr said:


> Does the mail give any reason why they feel that kettling their residents into even fewer open spaces during the spread of a proximity-correlated pandemic is a good idea?
> 
> I'll add "Essex County Council" to the list of governments keen to kill its voters, alongside "France" and "Ireland".


Before the list it says this 

*Essex County Council has closed Essex Country Parks, Cressing Temple Barns, Jaywick Martello Tower, Essex Record Office, our owned Mills, and Essex Outdoors.*
This difficult decision was made to help limit the spread of coronavirus and with the health and safety of our visitors and staff in mind, following the government’s national guidance around gatherings and social distancing.
To confirm, this closure affects the following Country Parks:

I don't agree with it either. Presumably they don't want folk wandering through agricultural land and facilities instead?


----------



## BoldonLad (30 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> 159 deaths today in England.


Isn't that a fall in daily deaths?, thought it was over 200 yesterday?


----------



## vickster (30 Mar 2020)

WTAF 
Coronavirus: Driver stopped on M6 lockdown trip with wife in boot https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52088987


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Isn't that a fall in daily deaths?, thought it was over 200 yesterday?


Yes, 209 yesterday.


----------



## tom73 (30 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> WTAF
> Coronavirus: Driver stopped on M6 lockdown trip with wife in boot https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52088987



Yep you can't make this stuff up 

West Yorkshire police also gatecrashed a party on the same day as the other one.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Isn't that a fall in daily deaths?, thought it was over 200 yesterday?


It is a fall - but I doubt it's the start of a downward trend yet - obviously hope I wrong.


----------



## BoldonLad (30 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It is a fall - but I doubt it's the start of a downward trend yet - obviously hope I wrong.



Personally, not taking too much notice of the numbers, without testing (both for infection, and past infection), they cannot possibly be accurate anyway. I am waiting for an outburst of optimism


----------



## kingrollo (30 Mar 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Personally, not taking too much notice of the numbers, without testing (both for infection, and past infection), they cannot possibly be accurate anyway. I am waiting for an outburst of optimism



I think the trend is of some value - you can't take the odd day here and there.


----------



## Racing roadkill (30 Mar 2020)

Think of this whole thing as a selection of Teller Ulam nuclear weapons. Each country has its own ‘size’. When detonated, they all start with a Nagasaki ‘fat man’ / trinity sized explosion, the differences are then in how the fusion / fission stages are arranged / constructed. On current data, it seems that China probably got away with a ‘fat man’ and one stage of the fusion / fission section ( something like an Ivy mike ) Italy seem to have achieved a Castle Bravo ( and I think it’s luck and not judgement it didn’t go ‘Tsar Bomba’ on them) the U.K. looks like it’s probably going to be no worse than China, Germany have got away without igniting the fission / fusion stage ( so Trinity at worst ) as have a lot of the other effected nations so far. The USA are at risk of a quite big one ( somewhere between an Ivy Mike and a Castle Bravo would be my guess ) and Spain looks like it could get away without the full ‘Tsar Bomba’ if things continue as they are at present. Iran and various other nations that aren’t being terribly transparent about their situation, so it’s difficult to tell.

Trinity ( where they all start, and Germany probably will end up)

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fJRP4TCA4Q8


Ivy Mike. ( China and the U.K. )

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tdv9XDUJHEs


Castle Bravo ( Italy and Spain bigger than they planned for )

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LlAmxBj6C1Q


Tsar Bomba ( where no one wants this to go and Italy nearly did)

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BBNhYOmEgy0


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I've had a video conference with Swedish colleagues in the last week where three of them were in the same room - this is absolutely forbidden in the UK by our organisation. Office based employees are still allowed to work from the office, again forbidden in the uk.
> 
> Just been chatting to a co- worker; she's been to a cafe this morning and had a coffee, sitting outside alone mind. Restaurants and bars are still open, table service only. No restrictions on exercise or movement. Building work going on as normal.
> 
> ...



Interesting how different an approach they have over there.

NB: you can still work in an office here if you cannot carry out your work at home etc - scroll down to 'Keeping your business open' :

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...loyers-and-businesses-on-coronavirus-covid-19


----------



## Edwardoka (30 Mar 2020)

Even though I've been guilty of poring over and speculating about the numbers on this very thread, it's reached the point where I need to ask, can we refrain from posting the numbers of fatalities and new cases?

Unless new information comes to light or there's a change in the gradients on the logarithmic scale, the numbers are not helpful since every day will bring new records, and confronting the reality that every single one of these rapidly growing numbers represents a person with all that entails, whilst simultaneously being completely unable to do anything about it is absolutely ruinous to mental health.

Thanks.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Interesting how different an approach they have over there.
> 
> NB: you can still work in an office here if you cannot carry out your work at home etc - scroll down to 'Keeping your business open' :
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...loyers-and-businesses-on-coronavirus-covid-19



Yeah, that's company rather than government policy. 

Their primary schools and kindergartens are still open. And she's still attending her evening class, which astounded me.


----------



## vickster (30 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Even though I've been guilty of poring over and speculating about the numbers on this very thread, it's reached the point where I need to ask, can we refrain from posting the numbers of fatalities and new cases?
> 
> Unless new information comes to light or there's a change in the gradients on the logarithmic scale, the numbers are not helpful since every day will bring new records, and confronting the reality that every single one of these rapidly growing numbers represents a person with all that entails, whilst simultaneously being completely unable to do anything about it is absolutely ruinous to mental health.
> 
> Thanks.


Indeed, we’re all capable of looking up the numbers should we wish (and they’re announced at the start of the daily press briefing)


----------



## tom73 (30 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Even though I've been guilty of poring over and speculating about the numbers on this very thread, it's reached the point where I need to ask, can we refrain from posting the numbers of fatalities and new cases?
> 
> Unless new information comes to light or there's a change in the gradients on the logarithmic scale, the numbers are not helpful since every day will bring new records, and confronting the reality that every single one of these rapidly growing numbers represents a person with all that entails, whilst simultaneously being completely unable to do anything about it is absolutely ruinous to mental health.
> 
> Thanks.



Your right we must not lose sight of the other growing figure of people who recover. 
it's important to remember this virus kills and in no way play it down but equally that by doing what we have been asked it can and is saving lives.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Yeah, that's company rather than government policy.
> 
> Their primary schools and kindergartens are still open. And she's still attending her evening class, which astounded me.



Sorry, I'm a bit confused. You said this:

'Office based employees are still allowed to work from the office, again forbidden in the uk.'

Am I missing something?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Mar 2020)

Good move: Gov' sponsored flights to get our nationals home on charter flights where there is no commercial option.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Sorry, I'm a bit confused. You said this:
> 
> 'Office based employees are still allowed to work from the office, again forbidden in the uk.'
> 
> Am I missing something?



I'm good at confusion! What I meant was:

Office workers being in the office is forbidden by our company in uk - you *must* work from home. 

It is allowed in Sweden by our company. 

As per your link, office workers in the UK can be allowed in the office by law, though strongly discouraged. As I understand it anyway. 

Does that clarify? Or have I made it worse still??


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm good at confusion! What I meant was:
> 
> Office workers being in the office is forbidden by our company in uk - you *must* work from home.
> 
> ...



That tidies things up - thanks. 

Interestingly the advice from Gov.UK re workers carrying on working who cannot work from home is not as strong as that reported in the press ie they are not saying stay away as strongly.

From the Doc' mentioned earlier and other Doc's I've looked at from Gov.UK:

*Keeping your business open*

With the exception of some non-essential shops and public venues, *we are not asking any other businesses to close – indeed it is important for business to carry on. *(My bolding.)

However, you should encourage your employees to work from home unless it is impossible for them to do so.


----------



## mjr (30 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Good move: Gov' sponsored flights to get our nationals home on charter flights where there is no commercial option.


Is it cynical to point out the recent mass grounding of Easyjet both increased the number of places without commercial options and increased the number of planes they can hire out?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Is it cynical to point out the recent mass grounding of Easyjet both increased the number of places without commercial options and increased the number of planes they can hire out?



No idea here - I'm not aware of the exact circumstances re Easyjet.

At the moment, the main priority is to get people home - we can worry about any dodgy practices later on when the dust settles.


----------



## mjr (30 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> No idea here - I'm not aware of the exact circumstances re Easyjet.


6 days ago, Easyjet paid its owners over £170m divi.

10 hours ago, they grounded the whole fleet and announced they'd be using the furlough fund: handout 1.

Just now, they were announced as one of the FO's preferred airlines: handout 2.

It reeks.



> At the moment, the main priority is to get people home - we can worry about any dodgy practices later on when the dust settles.


I'll be amazed if anything is ever done. More bad news buried under the virus.


----------



## numbnuts (30 Mar 2020)

Oh dear, my nephew's wife who is a nurse at Basingstoke hospital has got the virus so the whole family are now in quarantine


----------



## kingrollo (30 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Even though I've been guilty of poring over and speculating about the numbers on this very thread, it's reached the point where I need to ask, can we refrain from posting the numbers of fatalities and new cases?
> 
> Unless new information comes to light or there's a change in the gradients on the logarithmic scale, the numbers are not helpful since every day will bring new records, and confronting the reality that every single one of these rapidly growing numbers represents a person with all that entails, whilst simultaneously being completely unable to do anything about it is absolutely ruinous to mental health.
> 
> Thanks.



If its doing that to you - I would stay off the thread and maybe even the internet. Put something funny on the TV take a break. I got terribly wound up about it a week or so ago - just limited myself to once daily news for a few days.


----------



## winjim (30 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> No idea here - I'm not aware of the exact circumstances re Easyjet.
> 
> At the moment, the main priority is to get people home - we can worry about any dodgy practices later on when the dust settles.


Like the Russia report.


----------



## MarkF (30 Mar 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Oh dear, my nephew's wife who is a nurse at Basingstoke hospital has got the virus so the whole family are now in quarantine



All this talk of PPE ignores the fact that patients are developing virus symptoms in hospital having been admitted for something unrelated. So a patient on a ward, maybe a transient one, where PPE is not deemed necessary, might well be on virus ward later that same day.


----------



## Rocky (30 Mar 2020)

MarkF said:


> All this talk of PPE ignores the fact that patients are developing the virus in hospital. So a patient on a ward, maybe a transient one, where PPE is not deemed necessary, might well be on virus ward later that same day.


I'm sorry but this isn't quite true. Patients don't develop a virus. They get infected. They get infected by family, other patients and staff. Why do staff infect patients? It's because they haven't the PPE they need.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Even though I've been guilty of poring over and speculating about the numbers on this very thread, it's reached the point where I need to ask, can we refrain from posting the numbers of fatalities and new cases?
> 
> Unless new information comes to light or there's a change in the gradients on the logarithmic scale, the numbers are not helpful since every day will bring new records, and confronting the reality that every single one of these rapidly growing numbers represents a person with all that entails, whilst simultaneously being completely unable to do anything about it is absolutely ruinous to mental health.
> 
> Thanks.



I suggest you put this thread and any others that are troubling you on ignore.


----------



## PK99 (30 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I suggest you put this thread and any others that are troubling you on ignore.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (30 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Is it cynical to point out the recent mass grounding of Easyjet both increased the number of places without commercial options and increased the number of planes they can hire out?



Yes because the people being rescued are long haul, well out of range of the Easyjet fleet. Which EasyJet routes would you suggest keeping open?


----------



## MarkF (30 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'm sorry but this isn't quite true. Patients don't develop a virus. They get infected. They get infected by family, other patients and staff. Why do staff infect patients? It's because they haven't the PPE they need.



You are right & l should have said developing symptoms.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> View attachment 511510



I've asked the other Mods if we can discuss the reporting of data and its impact on _some_ members - so we'll see what the outcome is.

My own opinion is that one of the advantages of living in the UK is its Free Press and that data on CV's progress and our progress in the fight against it should be freely shared. 

The data cannot be ignored, it is part and parcel of virtually every CV report/article whether from the Fourth Estate or Social Media. To stop exposure to this someone would have to invoke pretty much a total media blackout for themselves.

If a particular thread bothers someone then the ignore function is very easy to put in place.


----------



## Levo-Lon (30 Mar 2020)

Suddenly getting lots of hand sanitizer gel spam emails..
All reported as phishing..fookers


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> 6 days ago, Easyjet paid its owners over £170m divi.
> 
> 10 hours ago, they grounded the whole fleet and announced they'd be using the furlough fund: handout 1.
> 
> ...



They were legally obliged to pay the divi.

They're entitled to furlough funding, which is exactly intended to keep companies like theirs afloat. 

Nothing reeking to me there. 

I'm ignorant of the preferred airline thingie, got a link?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> can we refrain from posting the numbers of fatalities and new cases?



Really sorry to hear how you're feeling, and I take your point completely. However, I doubt it's really possible to have such a thread without some discussion of numbers. I'll personally try not to put it to the fore.


----------



## mjr (30 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Yes because the people being rescued are long haul, well out of range of the Easyjet fleet.


Not all of them. "Charter flights are already up and running to Ghana and Tunisia." Both well within the 7400km range of Easyjet's A321neo planes and they actually had a service to Tunisia launching 2 May 2020. Even London to New York is famously 5555km. They can't do the really long hauls like Peru but there's plenty that they can.



> Which EasyJet routes would you suggest keeping open?


Any not served by other airlines, as a priority.



roubaixtuesday said:


> They were legally obliged to pay the divi.


Got a link?



roubaixtuesday said:


> They're entitled to furlough funding, which is exactly intended to keep companies like theirs afloat.


Yes, that's part of the point: the gov't made damn sure to fund the big companies promptly, while the self-employed got prevarication and now 100s of them and workers between jobs get shafted.



roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm ignorant of the preferred airline thingie, got a link?


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...nes-to-fly-back-more-tourists-stranded-abroad


----------



## matticus (30 Mar 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> _can we refrain from posting the numbers of fatalities and new cases? _
> 
> Really sorry to hear how you're feeling, and I take your point completely. However, I doubt it's really possible to have such a thread without some discussion of numbers. I'll personally try not to put it to the fore.


I think there is a balance here. Google is there for everyone; even if CC _banned _mentioning the numbers, any member wanting them could access them in seconds! It is hardly some sort of public service to post updates across every thread.

Can you imagine Churchill's war-room, if every 10minutes someone ran in screaming the latest casualty figures?!? It would be absurd. If a discussion requires a stat, people can access it, but you don't need a constant commentary.
_"Up 20!"
"Down 2!"
"Up again. Oh noes!"_
etc
etc


----------



## Cuchilo (30 Mar 2020)

The death toll has dropped by % over the last few days . Lets hope us , the public has decided to be more careful than we have been asked too and we dont see rising numbers like Italy and Spain .


----------



## PK99 (30 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I've asked the other Mods if we can discuss the reporting of data and its impact on _some_ members - so we'll see what the outcome is.
> 
> My own opinion is that one of the advantages of living in the UK is its Free Press and that data on CV's progress and our progress in the fight against it should be freely shared.
> 
> ...



If people do not like the content of any thread, the ignore option is there.

To discuss a pandemic without discussing the numbers would be utterly pointless.

A bit like discussing cycling but never mentioning tyres because some one has a rubber phobia.


----------



## Edwardoka (30 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I suggest you put this thread and any others that are troubling you on ignore.


To be honest, my initial reaction to that was one of disappointment and insult, but after taking some time to reflect before replying, I can assume the correct interpretation is a good faith "protect yourself if it's messing you up"

However, I have no issue with being exposed to relevant information or discussion, and I certainly don't think it's good to remove the magnitude of the crisis as a topic worthy of discussion.

My point, I guess, is that there are plenty of scenarios where raising the numbers is informative, relevant and important, such as "the trend is showing that..." or "there's a sudden uptick/downtick, i wonder what caused that" or "I think the effects of measure x in place y are starting to make a difference, because statistics"

This is not a criticism of any poster at all, like I say I've done it myself, it's that the "x people died in y today" where x is yesterday's x multiplied by ~1.4 is starting to feel voyeuristic, and I can't disassociate the fact that these numbers are not some mathematical abstraction but are rather ordinary people many of whom were healthy 3 weeks ago.

Maybe I should ignore this thread.


----------



## Racing roadkill (30 Mar 2020)

Today was the second day in a row the increase rate was down in the U.K. looking at the last few days, the rate is bumping about, on a pretty much straightening line.












Those are both positives. It’s early days, but if it continues like that over the next few days, the goal of slowing the rates down enough to not swamp the NHS, would be looking far more likely. It’s never ‘good’ news when people are still dying, but the powers that be have got to grow a thick skin, and look at the bigger picture, and react to that. That bigger picture is looking far more encouraging than it has been so far. Let’s not forget that no one is reporting the deaths from seasonal flu, which does also put a lot of people in intensive care / carry a mortality rate each and every year, whereas this ‘emergency’ is being reported everywhere. That means Keeping perspective is made more difficult.


----------



## Cuchilo (30 Mar 2020)

I think as a country we are going to manage this very well . With everyone sent home from work Britain will do its best to do what they are best at and invent arguments on the internet .


----------



## Rocky (30 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> To be honest, my initial reaction to that was one of disappointment and insult, but after taking some time to reflect before replying, I can assume the correct interpretation is a good faith "protect yourself if it's messing you up"
> 
> However, I have no issue with being exposed to relevant information or discussion, and I certainly don't think it's good to remove the magnitude of the crisis as a topic worthy of discussion.
> 
> ...


I don't think it was meant as an insult - just someone trying to be helpful. I agree seeing the figures can be really depressing. I think people deal with these things and try and make sense of them in different ways. Some people like narratives, some like statistical analysis and some prefer not to see these things unfolding by the day. That's the strength of CC - there are all sorts as members.

We all need to find ways to survive this mentally - constant 24hr rolling news and commentary takes its toll. We've all got to find what works for us. I tend to let the figures wash over me, my wife studies them endlessly - but we both know which subjects to avoid when we discuss this. Do take care - I believe we are all going to be changed by this, even if we and our loved ones escape the worse of the virus. I guess what I'm saying is that there's no rights and no wrongs here.


....edit: seeing what's just been posted, I might just give this thread a miss too ......it's almost as if someone is trying a windup.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Mar 2020)

More from Sweden, sounds like a bit of challenge starting to their unique approach. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-sweden-coronavirus-stoicism-lockdown-europe

I've many friends there, I hope they've got it right.


----------



## Blue Hills (30 Mar 2020)

Apologies if asked before, i drop out of this thread for obvious reasons.
But can anyone explain to me the rather different approach being taken by sweden and Japan to lockdowns?
Are they bonkers or do they know something/following some clever strategy?
Ah, just seen post above jumped in.
So two of us intrigued.


----------



## Rocky (30 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Apologies if asked before, i drop out of this thread for obvious reasons.
> But can anyone explain to me the rather different approach being taken by sweden and Japan to lockdowns?
> Are they bonkers or do they know something/following some clever strategy?
> Ah, just seen post above jumped in.
> So two of us intrigued.


Standing back and ignoring the human costs, it does seem a very interesting natural experiment. Perhaps Sweden is right and we are wrong. Time will tell. I do fear for the Swedish people if their leaders are wrong.


----------



## Blue Hills (30 Mar 2020)

Yes it is intriguing to say the least.
And i have always had a very good impression of sweden and its society.

Only bad words i have ever heard about it came from a marketing woman in an ex swedish client who for reasons best know to herself was always bitching about the tax in meetings.


----------



## slowmotion (30 Mar 2020)

It does suggest that the Swedes have an extraordinary faith in their government.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Mar 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Apologies if asked before, i drop out of this thread for obvious reasons.
> But can anyone explain to me the rather different approach being taken by sweden and Japan to lockdowns?
> Are they bonkers or do they know something/following some clever strategy?
> Ah, just seen post above jumped in.
> So two of us intrigued.



Here's a link I posted earlier today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293


----------



## tom73 (30 Mar 2020)

PHE just published guidance on supporting children and young people’s mental health and well-being during the outbreak. 
Also available in easy read via same link 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...and-young-peoples-mental-health-and-wellbeing


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Mar 2020)

New paper from the Imperial team that has been influential in govt policy

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...urope-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

My uninformed take homes:

Social distancing has saved about 60,000 lives in Europe already.

Lots of uncertainty, but only Italy and Norway are more likely than not to have sufficient interventions in place to reverse the virus (R0<1)

Sweden has the highest future growth rate projected if current restrictions not changed.

[Edit: so more likely than not we'll have yet stricter controls imposed.]


----------



## Johnno260 (30 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Today was the second day in a row the increase rate was down in the U.K. looking at the last few days, the rate is bumping about, on a pretty much straightening line.
> 
> View attachment 511514
> 
> ...



even if the rates are down just for a day I will take it, it’s less pressure on vitals services and hopefully helps the morale of our frontline staff, these people should never have to buy a drink again.
It’s also less families in distress for a day


----------



## Ming the Merciless (30 Mar 2020)

Meanwhile something amusing amongst the CoronaVirus news.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device


----------



## stowie (30 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Meanwhile something amusing amongst the CoronaVirus news.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device



This had me chuckling lots. It is somehow reassuring that someone with a PHD and studying pulsars and gravitational waves can be as stupid as the rest of us! From the description his "face buzzer" was close - the logic was simply inverted. Just needed one transistor and two resistors...

How he managed to get from this to getting magnets stuck up his nose is only something he can answer.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Mar 2020)

A while ago I wrote that the UK was involved in EU joint procurement for ventilators. It was but the UK is now pretending it missed an email.... It's a good job we don't need any more. Lying daffodils.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...o-buy-covid-19-medical-supplies-say-officials


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## Archie_tect (30 Mar 2020)

Been checking the Covid-19 dashboard- here are yesterday's [bottom] and today's [top] screen shots... if Trump doesn't take immediate and decisive action soon they will be in crisis.
If


----------



## Wobblers (30 Mar 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> To be honest, my initial reaction to that was one of disappointment and insult, but after taking some time to reflect before replying, I can assume the correct interpretation is a good faith "protect yourself if it's messing you up"
> 
> However, I have no issue with being exposed to relevant information or discussion, and I certainly don't think it's good to remove the magnitude of the crisis as a topic worthy of discussion.
> 
> ...



I for one do not mind the numbers being discussed. It informs me as to what's happening, and helps improve my own efforts to determine what the future might hold. This is not out of any voyeuristic desire, rather it is done to aid my decisions. For instance, it was watching the number of new infections and seeing community infections that made me urge my parents to limit going outside and isolate themselves as much as possible at the start of the month, long before any government pronouncement. They're both in their 80s with at risk medical conditions: I can hope that I was in time, and persuasive enough.

Personally I feel that any edict banning the discussion of the figures, no matter how well meaning, makes it much harder to counter the inevitable misconceptions and rumours. Being informed is an invaluable defence against this epidemic, and reducing the ability to do so is the wrong thing to do. I can't help those poor people in those statistics, but I can use the data to (hopefully) help those that I know.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (30 Mar 2020)

Here in Glasgow the Scottish Event Campus is getting converted to a field hospital, with the help of the army.
The back door of the Gartnavel General Hospital has now a long covered outdoor corridor, a blocked off car park: ready for many ambulances to unload out of the public eye, I guess.
Funny story: saw a woman entering the Beatson, mask and gloves.
She was going to put sanitizer on the gloves at the entrance, the person manning the station asked her to take them off.
She does so, puts sanitizer on her hands, picks up the gloves again, trying to put them back on!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Mar 2020)

Has anyone here received any official communication about shielding for the vulnerable? We thought my wife would have heard by now but she phoned her GP this morning and they knew nothing about it.


----------



## slowmotion (31 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Has anyone here received any official communication about shielding for the vulnerable? We thought my wife would have heard by now but she phoned her GP this morning and they knew nothing about it.


Good point. The only person I know who got a communication was a transplant patient. Where do the letters/texts come from? HMG? Health Authority? GP?


----------



## PK99 (31 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Has anyone here received any official communication about shielding for the vulnerable? We thought my wife would have heard by now but she phoned her GP this morning and they knew nothabout it.



A friend has.

Check the nhs website for the specific list of co editions requiring shielding


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## Pale Rider (31 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Good point. The only person I know who got a communication was a transplant patient. Where do the letters/texts come from? HMG? Health Authority? GP?



The online document is in this link.

Someone on here quoted a paper letter which was not identical, but used many of the same phrases.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ng-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19


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## slowmotion (31 Mar 2020)

Thank you very much for that information @Pale Rider. I thought I might fall into the "12 week gated" group but I think I'm off the hook for now unless there is another category between "extremely vulnerable" and the general population.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (31 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> even if the rates are down just for a day I will take it, it’s less pressure on vitals services and hopefully helps the morale of our frontline staff, these people should never have to buy a drink again.
> It’s also less families in distress for a day



Unfortunately the fatality figures we have been given daily are literally unbelievable - but knowing all the missteps and mistakes the government has made so far, should we be surprised?

Not only do the figures exclude fatalities at home, a substantial number of those reported each day actually died many days ago. For example, over 30% of the 159 associated with England reported on Monday 30th died before 27th. One passed away 17 days ago!

What that inevitably means, is that numerous who died during recent days remain unreported.

Like the meaningless number of infected due to inadequate testing, we literally have no clue how bad it is. We just know it is dreadful.


----------



## Pale Rider (31 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Thank you very much for that information @Pale Rider. I thought I might fall into the "12 week gated" group but I think I'm off the hook for now unless there is another category between "extremely vulnerable" and the general population.



I thought it might apply to me, even the docs and nurses in the specialist clinic I go to weren't sure, but it looks like my ailment is not on the list.

They had never heard of the document, and only came to their conclusion it doesn't apply to me after I showed it to them on my laptop.


----------



## Edwardoka (31 Mar 2020)

McWobble said:


> I for one do not mind the numbers being discussed. It informs me as to what's happening, and helps improve my own efforts to determine what the future might hold. This is not out of any voyeuristic desire, rather it is done to aid my decisions. For instance, it was watching the number of new infections and seeing community infections that made me urge my parents to limit going outside and isolate themselves as much as possible at the start of the month, long before any government pronouncement. They're both in their 80s with at risk medical conditions: I can hope that I was in time, and persuasive enough.
> 
> Personally I feel that any edict banning the discussion of the figures, no matter how well meaning, makes it much harder to counter the inevitable misconceptions and rumours. Being informed is an invaluable defence against this epidemic, and reducing the ability to do so is the wrong thing to do. I can't help those poor people in those statistics, but I can use the data to (hopefully) help those that I know.


Absolutely, it is crucial to be informed: the numbers allow for analysis about how the effort is going, as well as being an important tool to persuade the sceptical about the seriousness and the rate of escalation, as well as to counter dis/misinformation.

If someone comes along and says "it's not that serious, it's just like the flu" it is absolutely necessary to combat their assertion with "no, it isn't, and here's why", or my personal favourite from a vulnerable relative three weeks ago "there's no way we're going to catch it, there's only 200 cases in the entire country" with "yes, that's what people in Italy said two weeks ago"

I was never suggesting a blanket ban on mentioning the latest statistics or for it to be a moderation issue, nor was I suggesting that it was anyone's intention to be voyeuristic.
Rather, it was a request to let those who already have a good idea of how things are going and how much worse they are going to get before the peak be able to make the decision to look up the numbers themselves rather than have them foist upon them.

Furthermore, having a constant dripfeed of new case numbers that follow exponential growth allows us to become desensitised to the numbers and potentially lose sight of the fact that these are compounding (A 12% increase in new cases/new deaths every day will lead to a 10-fold increase in the totals over a week*)

* Yes I'm a hypocrite for modelling this


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The online document is in this link.
> 
> Someone on here quoted a paper letter which was not identical, but used many of the same phrases.
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ng-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19



My wife qualifies due to emphysema. The Scottish NHS document is similar and leads to a list of email addresses and contact numbers. Unfortunately for our area it states - "Phone number available shortly; please check back for updates." which has been there since last week and, as I said, the GP knows nothing about it.


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## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

My wife’s already being asked to do more shifts, issue is my work aren’t too warm about the whole working from home anyway and with kids as well won’t be a fun conversation, they would be at key worker school some of the time.

wife’s grandma has rallied it seems, her Herat rate is under control now, the C19 patient near her has been put into an isolation ward and grandma tested negative again, it’s just a race to get her back into the care home now.

she is a retired ENT doctor so knows the risks of being in hospitals at the moment.


----------



## vickster (31 Mar 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Thank you very much for that information @Pale Rider. I thought I might fall into the "12 week gated" group but I think I'm off the hook for now unless there is another category between "extremely vulnerable" and the general population.


70+ have been asked to self isolate as much as possible to protect themselves but are still able to exercise and shop, the other group specifically addressed. If you feel your medical condition would put you at much higher risk if you were to catch CV19 then self isolation might be advisable even if it’s not on the official list


----------



## BoldonLad (31 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Has anyone here received any official communication about shielding for the vulnerable? We thought my wife would have heard by now but she phoned her GP this morning and they knew nothing about it.


If you mean the “at risk” letter that was to be sent to approx 1.5-2million people, yes, I know two people who received one, one in England, the other in Scotland.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (31 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> 70+ have been asked to self isolate as much as possible



I may be wrong but isn’t the current advice still
*“We are advising those who are at increased risk of severe illness from coronavirus (COVID-19) to be particularly stringent in following social distancing measures.*
This group includes those who are:


aged 70 or older (regardless of medical conditions)” ?
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults

I’m not trying to split hairs here, it’s just that I take a different meaning for self-isolation from social distancing. 

My wife’s friend has been sent home from work on SSP even though she has no symptoms or other health problems, purely because she is over 70. The employer claims they are doing it “for her safety and in line with government advice for over 70s to self-isolate“.


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## kingrollo (31 Mar 2020)

Spoke to my GP yesterday - they are still in the process of identifying who is in the at risk group. So don't assume you aren't if you haven't had a letter just yet.


----------



## vickster (31 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I may be wrong but isn’t the current advice still
> *“We are advising those who are at increased risk of severe illness from coronavirus (COVID-19) to be particularly stringent in following social distancing measures.*
> This group includes those who are:
> 
> ...


I don't personally see a lot of difference between self isolation and extra stringent social distancing but it doesn't really matter, it's about keeping yourself (and others) safe


----------



## nickyboy (31 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Spoke to my GP yesterday - they are still in the process of identifying who is in the at risk group. So don't assume you aren't if you haven't had a letter just yet.


Son#1 has had one. The criteria seem a bit strange. He has mental disability which in itself I presume isn't a reason for the letter. When he was one year old he had a very serious issue with breathing and had to be ventilated. But he's twenty four now

In any case we keep him away from potential sources of infection such as supermarkets and he only goes out for his daily walk with us


----------



## vickster (31 Mar 2020)

Friend with lymphoma had the text a week ago, presumably via the hospital system not GP


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## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Spoke to my GP yesterday - they are still in the process of identifying who is in the at risk group. So don't assume you aren't if you haven't had a letter just yet.


I would assume they contact the most at risk first, wife’s cousin donated a kidney to his wife and she was contacted very quickly as she is on immune suppression meds.


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## Joey Shabadoo (31 Mar 2020)

The wife read somewhere that they assess vulnerability combining condition with number of recent hospital visits. So although she has a fairly serious condition but avoids hospitals unless absolutely necessary, she doesn't score as highly as someone who runs back and forward to the hospital. 

She's got emphysema and after two bouts of pneumonia, she has less than 33% lung function. She is unlikely to survive exposure to this virus.


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## kingrollo (31 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I would assume they contact the most at risk first, wife’s cousin donated a kidney to his wife and she was contacted very quickly as she is on immune suppression meds.


Don't know. My GP said they were still in the process of identifying. 
Bizzarley they said I was in the at risk group - and I should call back at the end of the week if I hadn't had a letter - as if I was missed off it would indicate something had gone wrong with there process.
They are so useless - I'm not expecting a letter this week.


----------



## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> My wife’s friend has been sent home from work on SSP even though she has no symptoms or other health problems, purely because she is over 70. The employer claims they are doing it “for her safety and in line with government advice for over 70s to self-isolate“.


There's a discrimination case waiting to happen if both sides survive this. I hope your wife's friend has trade union support.


----------



## Venod (31 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The wife read somewhere that they assess vulnerability combining condition with number of recent hospital visits. So although she has a fairly serious condition but avoids hospitals unless absolutely necessary, she doesn't score as highly as someone who runs back and forward to the hospital.
> 
> She's got emphysema and after two bouts of pneumonia, she has less than 33% lung function. She is unlikely to survive exposure to this virus.



The SIL has the same condition, she has had the letter, she has been in hospital in the past 6 months but like your wife avoids it as much as possible she has breathing apparatus at home, the last time the doctor visited, (about a month ago) he gave explicit instructions not to allow anyone into the house, because of infection risk.


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Systm-One has been updated so I understand and show anyone who is in the at risk group. So GP's should know if you are covered by the shielding advice. Sadly passing on the advice however may not be as joined up as is needs to be. Though that's not a new problem 
In will also depend on who is reviewing the information not everyone at a practice is fully aware of every ones on going conditions and how they are managed. 
So if you can best checking with the person who really knows you and your condition management. 
Which maybe a Practice Nurse , Nurse Practitioner at the clinic , your named GP or who ever carries out your reviews. 

Some cross checking with other data bases may mean some who have been told they at risk may not see themselves as one. 
Over all this is a big exercise on top of everything else they are trying to do so it may take time so just try and be patience. 

The simple message is if in doubt check.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Mar 2020)

Viking said:


> These are English NHS experiences so might not be relevant. I'm in the "Don't even leave the house" group and got a text on 23 March with a link to the advice website. On the 24th, I got another text about repeat prescriptions and registering with the NHS site for vulnerable people support. On the 28th, I got a call from the local authority to see if I was OK and giving me a contact phone number. So, so far, it all seems very good in my case.
> 
> Sorry for the late reply. I was in the garage on the turbo trainer using my mobile phone and kept getting my logon password wrong and then got turfed out until now


Thank you. There certainly seems to be a difference in approach between the English NHS and the Scottish version.


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## Pale Rider (31 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> I don't personally see a lot of difference between self isolation and extra stringent social distancing but it doesn't really matter, it's about keeping yourself (and others) safe



The main practical difference looks to be you are advised not to go out even for food or medicine.

Quoting from the online document:

*How do these measures differ from the social distancing guidance for vulnerable people issued?*

You are strongly advised to stay at home at all times for a period of at least 12 weeks from the day you receive your letter. Avoid going out for food and medicine. Ask a friend, neighbour, or family member to bring your supplies where possible.


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## Joey Shabadoo (31 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The main practical difference looks to be you are advised not to go out even for food or medicine.
> 
> Quoting from the online document:
> 
> ...



I think the list is also passed to pharmacies and supermarkets to give priority to deliveries.


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## Ming the Merciless (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Systm-One has been updated so I understand and show anyone who is in the at risk group. So GP's should know if you are covered by the shielding advice. Sadly passing on the advice however may not be as joined up as is needs to be. Though that's not a new problem
> 
> The simple message is if in doubt check.



I am registered on systm-on. It would have been easy enough to update on there so a patient could see in their own online record that they are considered at risk. I just checked and they have added links to the nhs Covid-19 advice but no more.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Systm-One has been updated so I understand and show anyone who is in the at risk group. [...]
> The simple message is if in doubt check.


Where does it show in SystmOne, please? I'm fairly sure now I'm not, based on comments above, but it'd be nice to confirm.


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I am registered on systm-on. It would have been easy enough to update on there so a patient could see in their own online record that they are considered at risk. I just checked and they have added links to the nhs Covid-19 advice but no more.



Yes your right that would have been nice and simple but like I said it's not joined up. 
The update may well only apply to HCP's and other users access that's how Mrs 73 spotted it.


----------



## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

News from Switzerland: worries about rents of closed businesses, updated stats, the loss of smell question maybe the first symptom, financial problems at bus companies and public transport season tickets extended, Hungary maybe-excessive emergency powers including years in prison for spreading fake news about c19 (take note "it's just flu" types), suspicions of Wuhan underreporting based on numbers of body bags and similar shipped there, Brazil president saying "it's just flu" being criticised including Argentina's, speculative purchases of shares in some Swiss companies including Swatch


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## Blue Hills (31 Mar 2020)

Article on the age factor highlights increased risk to the non too old.
Also highlights lack of test data.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...study-reveals-increased-risks-from-middle-age


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Figures show that prison cases within England and wales are on the up.
Still less than 60 though it's doubled since last update a week ago.
The figure of a 1000 in isolation highly suggests that ever prison within the estate is affected. 
18 prison staff and four prison escort staff also have tested positive.
The biggest issue is the 3,500 employees around a tenth of the workforce are currently in self-isolation
It's going to be an uphill task to stop the numbers running away from staff.
Easy release will need to happen at some point and around 50 pregnant prisoners will have to dealt with quickly if they can be safely released.


----------



## Mo1959 (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Figures show that prison cases within England ad wales are on the up.
> Still less than 60 though it's doubled since last update a week ago.
> The figure of a 1000 in isolation highly suggests that ever prison within the estate is affected.
> 18 prison staff and four prison escort staff also have tested positive.
> ...


They're discussing early release up here too. Prisons are a perfect breeding ground for the virus. I honestly can't see how they can avoid the majority becoming infected.


----------



## Buck (31 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> There's a discrimination case waiting to happen if both sides survive this. I hope your wife's friend has trade union support.



I agree it isn't SSP as she should be social distancing but one would have to establish that the advise by the Co. was intentional and caused material harm.


----------



## Rezillo (31 Mar 2020)

The syndromic surveillance reports are updated weekly:

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/syndromic-surveillance-systems-and-analyses

One category to keep an eye on for general trends is this one:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-syndromic-surveillance-weekly-bulletins-2020

For the 26 March one, there's a dramatic rise in calls for breathing problems and for chest pains. These indicators are guides only; they will be influenced by public concern as well as real conditions.


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## Mike_P (31 Mar 2020)

Press speculation now backed by photos of work being undertaken to turn Harrogate Conference (or Convention as it now likes to be called) Centre into a NHS hospital.


----------



## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

I know our record is not great.
But spending time marking out a carpark instead of getting people in doors is just plan wrong. 

View: https://twitter.com/AlisonKriel/status/1244764072769400832?s=20


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Rezillo said:


> The syndromic surveillance reports are updated weekly:
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/syndromic-surveillance-systems-and-analyses
> 
> ...



One other thing to remember is what they call about and what the crew find once arrived can be very different.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Press speculation now backed by photos of work being undertaken to turn Harrogate Conference (or Convention as it now likes to be called) Centre into a NHS hospital.


What's the capacity? About 5'000? I wonder why they went for that one rather than the Leeds Arena - did they want to be closer to York, where IIRC the biggest venue is the Barbican which is only 2'000 capacity? Or is it sentimentalism about Harrogate as a health cure town?


----------



## Racing roadkill (31 Mar 2020)

Oh what a surprise. The news starts to look positive ( indeed starts to indicate that the infection rate was beginning to drop before the lockdown, thus rendering the lockdown measures OTT ) and what happens? The government decide to change the way the numbers are counted ( as of today ) which makes it look worse again. They’ve just proved a point ( they’re playing the ‘treat ‘em mean, keep ‘em keen’ game ) and simultaneously lost any credibility they had left. Well, I hope a lot more people see what they’re doing.


----------



## Milzy (31 Mar 2020)

They've closed some county borders. An over run hospital sees the mortality rates rise from 2% to 10%. It's going to get worse before it gets better. This is no time for political Snipes.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Oh what a surprise. The news starts to look positive ( indeed starts to indicate that the infection rate was beginning to drop before the lockdown, thus rendering the lockdown measures OTT ) and what happens? The government decide to change the way the numbers are counted ( as of today ) which makes it look worse again. They’ve just proved a point ( they’re playing the ‘treat ‘em mean, keep ‘em keen’ game ) and simultaneously lost any credibility they had left. Well, I hope a lot more people see what they’re doing.



It's hard to sensibly respond to this and stay within moderation guidelines. 

So let's just ask the question:

Once it was realised that deaths are being ascribed to COVID outside the hospital system, what was the right thing to do?


----------



## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Leeds Arena is just that an arena. it's much more preferable to have a conference centre that is basically a big indoor box.
With lighting , heating, running water ect all in place. The multiple halls they have also lends it's self to being highly flexible place.
That can quickly be converted and be up and running in days.
Caring for anyone with even simple conditions is bad enough in nothing more than a tent.
Having ran short term stay bedded medical centres at large events it's even worse.
But mass critical care in one will be nightmare. If we are to have extra care space we should be providing the best we can. Not only for ones in need but for the ones who are providing it.

Other's inc York may well be needed at some point.
The plans for such extra hospital space will have been in place for years and will be following a pre set plan for roll out.
Other factors will equally be at play such as over all bed space in the area and availability of other services.
Harrogate has plenty of accommodation close by which is well use to large conference numbers.


----------



## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Two men have admitted stealing bikes belonging to hospital staff who had been caring for patients with coronavirus.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-52102791

Bad enough at anytime but now


----------



## newfhouse (31 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Oh what a surprise. The news starts to look positive ( indeed starts to indicate that the infection rate was beginning to drop before the lockdown, thus rendering the lockdown measures OTT ) and what happens? The government decide to change the way the numbers are counted ( as of today ) which makes it look worse again. They’ve just proved a point ( they’re playing the ‘treat ‘em mean, keep ‘em keen’ game ) and simultaneously lost any credibility they had left. Well, I hope a lot more people see what they’re doing.


Thanks for keeping us in the loop, Truth Warrior.


----------



## Buck (31 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> What's the capacity? About 5'000? I wonder why they went for that one rather than the Leeds Arena - did they want to be closer to York, where IIRC the biggest venue is the Barbican which is only 2'000 capacity? Or is it sentimentalism about Harrogate as a health cure town?


Leeds Arena doesnt have a big floor space in comparison as the seating is all tiered whereas Harrogate is a flat space.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Mar 2020)

People sometimes wonder why lawyers are regarded as low-life, then this berk comes along:



> People in England are allowed to go for as many walks a day as they want, according to a human rights barrister who says the law does not match the government advice.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52101615


----------



## kingrollo (31 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> People sometimes wonder why lawyers are regarded as low-life, then this berk comes along:
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52101615


I don't get it though - my GP told me that the guidance on self isolating isn't law (yet).

If that's the case How can fines be issued?


----------



## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> People sometimes wonder why lawyers are regarded as low-life, then this berk comes along:
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52101615




View: https://youtu.be/3O8J2locx5o


----------



## Pale Rider (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Two men have admitted stealing bikes belonging to hospital staff who had been caring for patients with coronavirus.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-52102791
> 
> Bad enough at anytime but now



At least the magistrates have done their bit by locking them up pending sentence.

In ordinary circumstances these two might not have gone to prison, but on this occasion we might see a judge flex his muscles - to the limited extent they are allowed to.


----------



## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> At least the magistrates have done their bit by locking them up pending sentence.
> 
> In ordinary circumstances these two might not have gone to prison, but on this occasion we might see a judge flex his muscles - to the limited extent they are allowed to.



True can't see them just walking away with the normal slap. 
Given the current situation it won't just be the "harry grout's" they need to worry about.


----------



## winjim (31 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> People sometimes wonder why lawyers are regarded as low-life, then this berk comes along:
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52101615


Lawyer explains the law.


View: https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1244955326551556096?s=19



View: https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1244976379877371906?s=19


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## DaveReading (31 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> People sometimes wonder why lawyers are regarded as low-life, then this berk comes along:



It's hardly the lawyer's fault that the advice coming from the government and the police on social distancing is inconsistent and at times contradictory.

In fact you could argue that in pointing it out he's just doing his job.


----------



## winjim (31 Mar 2020)

DaveReading said:


> It's hardly the lawyer's fault that the advice coming from the government and the police on social distancing is inconsistent and at times contradictory.
> 
> In fact you could argue that in pointing it out he's just doing his job.


There's been plenty of talk on this very forum about what we're 'allowed' to do, mentions of 'compliance' etc.


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## Joey Shabadoo (31 Mar 2020)

Nope. He's looking for loopholes, publicising them and others will use them to endanger people's lives.


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## Pale Rider (31 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't get it though - my GP told me that the guidance on self isolating isn't law (yet).
> 
> If that's the case How can fines be issued?



The fines are issued for being outside without a reasonable excuse, those roughly being getting food/medicine, going to work (if you have to), daily exercise, and some emergency situations.

I suppose the GP is correct in that you cannot be fined for 'failing to self isolate', although the police could get you for failing to disperse if you were outside with people not in your family unit.


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## DaveReading (31 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Nope. He's looking for loopholes, publicising them and others will use them to endanger people's lives.



Ah, "loopholes" - the standard excuse of the sloppy law-maker.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

News from Belgium: a 12 year old dies, youngest victim in Europe, chief medical officer barely holds it together when delivering the news (pictured); hospitals start redistributing patient to stave off saturation; Johnson and Johnson start testing three candidate vaccines on monkeys - maybe ready for general release early next year; tale of a recovered patient; website showing pharmacy stock gets wider use to avoid people visiting multiple branches needlessly; lockdown fixed penalty notices issued by councils are illegal, say the college of general procurers; one man in Brussels will be in court 10 April for breaking lockdown four times in quick succession; a minute's silence in Italy; cruise ship Zaandam in Panama (pictured) has four deaths and is heading for Miami port; stagiares, jobistes and volunteers now being used in Belgian hospitals; how to tackle sleep disruption during homeworking or furlough; ex players of RFC Liege auctioning off shirts to raise funds for crisis charities.

And a bonus image from BBC News this morning of two of Avon and Somerset's finest explaining to dog walkers that they should not be driving up Worlebury Hill (the hill on the north edge of Weston-super-Mare) to walk their dogs like usual - and rather letting the side down by not keeping 2m distance from each other.


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Or the other option is detain you for testing and force you to quarantine up to 28 days.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I suppose the GP is correct in that you cannot be fined for 'failing to self isolate', although the police could get you for failing to disperse if you were outside with people not in your family unit.


Could there be some assault charge similar to the one threatened against the daffodils spitting at police?


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## winjim (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Or the other option is detain you for testing and force you to quarantine up to 28 days.


I have to say that if the coppers did stop me, I would be asking them exactly which powers they were using. Having said that, I'm not going to be going out looking for loopholes and I'm not ovine enough to need the government and the law to regulate my general behaviour and define exactly what I should and should not be doing.

Keep taking the piss and the police will be given those extra powers.


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## Pale Rider (31 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Nope. He's looking for loopholes, publicising them and others will use them to endanger people's lives.



Yes, the lawyer is correct there's nothing in the law about the number of times you can be out for exercise each day.

But it's not very helpful to point that out in the current climate.

The time to do that is when he is representing someone who has been wrongly nicked for taking multiple walks.

Publicity seeker.

I wouldn't want him representing me.

The best barristers go about their business quietly and efficiently.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Nope. He's looking for loopholes, publicising them and others will use them to endanger people's lives.


I'm pretty sure that the endangerers will find the loopholes anyway. Fair play to the lawyers for pointing out the terrible mess the government has made of the law. Even with the rush, it seems a bit of a shocker that no two countries in the union have exactly the same rule in law. Where does the buck stop for this? Is it still the responsibility of the Cabinet Office to coordinate the nations? Who's in charge there? Oh. Gove.  Might have guessed he'd not have enough experts!

Here's a different lawyer explaining how not even England and Wales have the same rules on exercise, as well as the usual differences with Scotland, NI, IoM and the Channel Islands: https://barristerblogger.com/2020/03/30/those-british-isles-lockdown-questions-answered/


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## Pale Rider (31 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Could there be some assault charge similar to the one threatened against the daffodils spitting at police?



There could if the coppers try to wind the punter up a bit, and he's stupid enough to fall for it.


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## Joey Shabadoo (31 Mar 2020)

When news of the first lockdowns in China came out, I recall saying to a colleague that it wouldn't happen here because we have too many special flowers who think rules don't apply to them and they have human rights dontcha know so I'm kinda surprised it's taken so long for one of them to come squealing to the top of the pile.

We could have chosen the French route where you need a piece of paper to go outside, but we didn't. We imposed a consensual lockdown with the rules framed loosely to allow for individual circumstances. Regardless of the *letter* of the law, the *spirit* of the law is to keep everyone indoors as much as possible for the benefit of all.

I've seen the helmet debates on CC. I'm entirely unsurprised to see the nitpickers trying to interpret laws to suit themselves.


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## Ming the Merciless (31 Mar 2020)

Surely the spirit of the law is to vastly reduce the potential vectors for the virus to spread? The law has to be framed in such a way that it can be enforced. A law saying only once a day exercise would be unenforceable. Hence the recent changes to the law didn’t say that. We simply don’t have the numbers to police such a thing.

So it’s a mix of what is considered enforceable laws plus some overreaching guidelines which are far more reaching than the law. So one is law to be enforced and the other behavioural to hopefully deliver the desired outcome.


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## DaveReading (31 Mar 2020)

The latest guidance being given to officers by the College of Policing (the professional body for the police) makes no specific reference to cycling, but simply says:

"No person may leave the place where they are living without a reasonable excuse. Reasonable excuses include: 

to take exercise either alone or with other members of their household"

(etc)

While those are guidelines, and subject to interpretation by individual forces, they are pretty unambiguous. Note the absence of any reference to time/distance/frequency.

https://www.college.police.uk/News/College-news/Pages/Health-Protection-Guidelines.aspx


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

This whole thing is new to not just to us but the police who have never really been asked to do this before. 
On the whole most police look to be following the tried and tested educate , encourage , enforcement. 
So it's not always going to go smoothly it's important that we are aware of any mass over use of the law. In the end it come's down to common sense and keeping within the spirt of the law. Which may not be spelt out in black and white but it's a quick way to work out if someone is clearly taking the pee.


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## Pale Rider (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> True can't see them just walking away with the normal slap.
> Given the current situation it won't just be the "harry grout's" they need to worry about.



You - or Mrs 73 - may be aware 'assault of an emergency worker' is a new offence.

The penalties for it are more serious than for common assault which is what someone who thumped a nurse or doc would have been charged with.

I think I read somewhere the average sentence for cases dealt with under the new law is 12 weeks.

Previously it might not even have been custody, so it's a step in the right direction.


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## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

The prat lawyer who said it’s legal to go out as many times as they like is a total moron, who cares about the legality its the morality, staying at home potentially saves life’s its idiots like that who will give people the excuse they want to go out.

Maybe the same tool should go and look at today’s death toll and think about his words.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> A law saying only once a day exercise would be unenforceable. Hence the recent changes to the law didn’t say that.


Except in Wales, bizarrely. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2020/353/regulation/8/made



Joey Shabadoo said:


> [...] Regardless of the *letter* of the law, the *spirit* of the law is [...]


If I was in charge, I'd lock down the internet of anyone posting any BS about "the spirit of the law" because they're clearly flaming drunk!


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> You - or Mrs 73 - may be aware 'assault of an emergency worker' is a new offence.
> 
> The penalties for it are more serious than for common assault which is what someone who thumped a nurse or doc would have been charged with.
> 
> ...



Indeed I am like you say it's new and and more serious. Sure was long over due if I remember the max sentence has been increased since it was 1st past. Mrs 73 lucky has not needed to have us of it though she knows a few who have.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> The prat lawyer who said it’s legal to go out as many times as they like is a total moron, [...]


There's at least three so far: Adam Wagner, Matthew Scott and Lord Sumption.

Maybe, just maybe, the morons might be the politicians passing laws while giving speeches and publishing FAQs that disagree with their laws?


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

"Boris Johnson has presided over a public policy disaster. Now, he wants you to blame your neighbours. Don't." https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/op...rdinary-people-for-the-uks-pandemic-failures/


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## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> There's at least three so far: Adam Wagner, Matthew Scott and Lord Sumption.
> 
> Maybe, just maybe, the morons might be the politicians passing laws while giving speeches and publishing FAQs that disagree with their laws?


oh well, then make it across the board you can leave home for nothing but the essentials. 
Obviously the general public can’t be asked to use common sense so treat them like kids.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> oh well, then make it across the board you can leave home for nothing but the essentials.
> Obviously the general public can’t be asked to use common sense so treat them like kids.


Why are you pushing so hard for that?

Asking the public to use common sense would be far better than codifying certain things in laws, but different things in the different nations, and then pretending in official documents and speeches that the law says something else.


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## Racing roadkill (31 Mar 2020)

It interesting that the ONS have decided to include the particular new numbers they have, to artificially bolster the rate figures. They’ve scored a spectacular own goal. The new figures include deaths outside of hospitals. Now let’s see. The ‘mantra’ for justifying the degree of controls / lockdown is “Stay at home” ( they’re dead, it’s irrelevant, as dead people can’t spread the virus ) “Protect the NHS” ( people who’ve died outside of hospital won’t require hospital beds / ventilators / ITU so aren’t going to be a drain on NHS resources are they?) “save lives” ( They’re already dead, they can’t help you with that Boris). If this attempted manipulation of the figures fares as well as the last tactic to artificially bolster the numbers, by changing the recording period from 8 hrs to 24 hrs did ( it only worked for about 2 or 3 days) then I think the next tactic will be to start counting any death, where the person had Corona virus in their system, regardless of whether that had much influence in why they died, or not ( for example they died because they got hit by a car, but they were found to have CV in their system, so they count in CV death stats ). That would be a truly desperate attempt, but going on evidence thus far, not beyond the realms of possibility.


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## carlosfandangus (31 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Here's a different lawyer explaining how not even England and Wales have the same rules on exercise, as well as the usual differences with Scotland, NI, IoM and the Channel Islands: https://barristerblogger.com/2020/03/30/those-british-isles-lockdown-questions-answered/



We now have a blanket 40 MPH maximum on the island, it was unlimited over the mountain, I was once overtaken at 150 MPH


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## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Why are you pushing so hard for that?
> 
> Asking the public to use common sense would be far better than codifying certain things in laws, but different things in the different nations, and then pretending in official documents and speeches that the law says something else.



Because put simply they can’t use common sense, they have been asked and they refuse to. 

You get these dumbass lawyers saying it can’t be enforced so for the retard brigade it will green light them to do as they please. 

My wife is frontline nurse putting her health at risk every shift so my tolerance for these imbeciles is at a fat zero.

A large section of the public are showing their true colours at the moment and to be blunt it’s f%*$ing disgusting.


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## Mo1959 (31 Mar 2020)

Jump up in deaths today. Wonder if it’s the result from all the previous weekend’s jollies in parks, etc.


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## carlosfandangus (31 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Because put simply they can’t use common sense, they have been asked and they refuse to.
> 
> You get these dumbass lawyers saying it can’t be enforced so for the retard brigade it will green light them to do as they please.
> 
> ...



It is common sense, however lots of people are lacking/do not want to, I went out today to get some shopping, I came back and spent an hour on the turbo, I do have to take the dogs out later, however that is on my doorstep and will be for 20 mins max, tomorrow I "may" go out on the bike early doors, however I limit my exposure to protect my family


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## kingrollo (31 Mar 2020)

I wish the government would give us timescales - because "Its on order" is wearing a bit thin....

Doctors are still crying out for protective masks etc - "Weve ordered 3m"

We haven't got enough ventilators - "Weve ordered 10,000"

We haven't got enough test kits - "Weve ordered 650,000" 

The fact that people we are ordering them from haven't got any - is quietly tucked away

A depressing read of the news shows that the public are fooled - Johnson and the tories have never been so popular.


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## kingrollo (31 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Jump up in deaths today. Wonder if it’s the result from all the previous weekend’s jollies in parks, etc.



Following the increase at more or less the same rate as Italy - I don't really think anyone should be surprised at todays figures - itlaly has been approx 700 or 800 a day for what seems like a couple of weeks now. I pray to god that I am wrong - but those are the figures we will be looking at shortly.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Because put simply they can’t use common sense, they have been asked and they refuse to.


Have they? Where are the numbers? And did you read that earlier article pointing out that we're being asked, yet again, to criticise our neighbours rather than the leaders for the failures?



Johnno260 said:


> You get these dumbass lawyers saying it can’t be enforced so for the retard brigade it will green light them to do as they please.


The retard brigade will do what they do anyway. They're not reading lawyer blogs or the endlessly-scrolling live feeds. The lawyers are just pointing out that the government have sent the police out there with one hand tied behind their backs in a fog of confusing advice and are spewing more fog instead of attempting to fix it.



Johnno260 said:


> My wife is frontline nurse putting her health at risk every shift so my tolerance for these imbeciles is at a fat zero.


I can't claim exactly that, but I do have relatives on the front lines in this (two NHS, one healthcare manufacturing OTTOMH), so I hope you're not trying to imply that I don't care about them.

My tolerance for the imbeciles is also a fat zero, but I disagree about who the imbeciles are!


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## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Jump up in deaths today. Wonder if it’s the result from all the previous weekend’s jollies in parks, etc.



And the morons packing the pubs



carlosfandangus said:


> It is common sense, however lots of people are lacking/do not want to, I went out today to get some shopping, I came back and spent an hour on the turbo, I do have to take the dogs out later, however that is on my doorstep and will be for 20 mins max, tomorrow I "may" go out on the bike early doors, however I limit my exposure to protect my family



If I cycle I go out when it’s light, and I keep it slow and steady, I’m not risking injury during this time.

Food we lucked out and snagged an Asda delivery slot and stocked up (1 weeks worth)

Like you said people aren’t interested in doing the right thing, but doing as they please.
I have seen too much disgusting behaviour though to be sympathetic to many of these people who just want to do as they please.


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## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

@mjr sorry if you think any other political party or person could do better you’re wrong in my opinion, the Labour Party couldn’t even put together a coherent manifesto.

but if you think it’s time for political sniping go ahead as that’s obviously the route cause of all our issues.

sorry if I come across as aggressive, but like I said I have seen too much human trash this past week to have much sympathy.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We haven't got enough ventilators - "Weve ordered 10,000" [...] The fact that people we are ordering them from haven't got any - is quietly tucked away


They simply don't run that scale of stock. That's the way of things now. If they did, Johnson and financial pals would have pilloried them for inefficiencies. But we are where we are and ordering them is the right move because then we'll get them once they are made.

Factories are running full tilt, but there are at least three problematic consequences of the lockdown and distancing:
1. most factories cannot expand capacity, because amongst other things building sites have shut down and some factories simply can't have the machines installed or retooled while obeying the 2m distance between workers, so once you're running current production lines 24x7 then often that's the most you can do;
2. some suppliers have shut down because they didn't realise their products contribute to things that go into medical equipment - switching suppliers is possible, but takes more time and adds some risk;
3. border controls and reduced shipping are slowing down movements of subassemblies between manufacturers.

I doubt many firms have ever considered the impact of such a combination of effects on their delivery times, so once things from many suppliers are combined into complicated medical equipment, I'd view any delivery date estimates as having a very large margin of error!


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## kingrollo (31 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> @mjr sorry if you think any other political party or person could do better you’re wrong in my opinion, the Labour Party couldn’t even put together a coherent manifesto.
> 
> but if you think it’s time for political sniping go ahead as that’s obviously the route cause of all our issues.
> 
> sorry if I come across as aggressive, but like I said I have seen too much human trash this past week to have much sympathy.


I never quite understand this argument. Sure it's time to rally round and help one another.
However when the govt - observed what happened in Italy , and ignored the testing advice from WHO - they should be held accountable IMO. 
Quite why the lockdown was so late in the day is beyond me.


----------



## kingrollo (31 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> They simply don't run that scale of stock. That's the way of things now. If they did, Johnson and financial pals would have pilloried them for inefficiencies. But we are where we are and ordering them is the right move because then we'll get them once they are made.
> 
> Factories are running full tilt, but there are at least three problematic consequences of the lockdown and distancing:
> 1. most factories cannot expand capacity, because amongst other things building sites have shut down and some factories simply can't have the machines installed or retooled while obeying the 2m distance between workers, so once you're running current production lines 24x7 then often that's the most you can do;
> ...


Agreed. My point was that I am not get to comfortable knowing that we have 10,000 ventilators on order - they could be months away.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> It interesting that the ONS have decided to include the particular new numbers they have, to artificially bolster the rate figures.


That's not why they decided to include them. They were made aware of valid criticism that they weren't including all the relevant deaths, so they acted to improve accuracy. Maybe it was "a spectacular own goal" but it was at least in line with their ethics.



Racing roadkill said:


> The ‘mantra’ for justifying the degree of controls / lockdown is “Stay at home” ( they’re dead, it’s irrelevant, as dead people can’t spread the virus ) “Protect the NHS” ( people who’ve died outside of hospital won’t require hospital beds / ventilators / ITU so aren’t going to be a drain on NHS resources are they?) “save lives” ( They’re already dead, they can’t help you with that Boris).


You seem to be confused. The job of the Office for National Statistics is to report the data as accurately as possible, not to support the government (or undermine it, for that matter). Think of ONS as like a measurement partner to the National Audit Office.

There used to be a department that did something closer to publishing evidence in support of government policy, somewhere in the Cabinet Office or Number 10, but I've lost track of what its name is now.



Racing roadkill said:


> changing the recording period from 8 hrs to 24 hrs


That wasn't what happened, was it? The reporting time was moved 8h to improve timeliness for the daily sermon by ministers - debatable but justifiable because it's in no-one's interests to be talking about stale data.


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## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I never quite understand this argument. Sure it's time to rally round and help one another.
> However when the govt - observed what happened in Italy , and ignored the testing advice from WHO - they should be held accountable IMO.
> Quite why the lockdown was so late in the day is beyond me.



if we locked down sooner maybe they realised there would be even more resistance?

Also on the government point, bear in mind it’s a government almost exclusively elected on getting Brexit done and on virtually no other point.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I never quite understand this argument. Sure it's time to rally round and help one another.
> However when the govt - observed what happened in Italy , and ignored the testing advice from WHO - they should be held accountable IMO.
> Quite why the lockdown was so late in the day is beyond me.


Or why the lockdown was introduced in such a way that the "morons" predictably rushed out and binged before each step of it, preannouncing measures with them not taking legal effect for a day or two. Were they using the morons as cannon-fodder for early virus infection and to hell with the healthcare workers?

I don't know who would have done any better. No politician has really stepped forwards in holding the government to much account yet (definitely not Corbyn - Sturgeon may be the closest but she's not an alternative UK PM for obvious reasons) but that may be because of the blind jingoism that seems to have paralysed the media and much discussion. But I do know that this has been pretty dire.


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## Dave Davenport (31 Mar 2020)

Anyone else noticed an increase in fly tipping? I'm pretty sure I missed catching someone by minutes this morning, white van and driver on small lane that just for some reason made me suspicious straight away, he pulled over just after I'd passed him then carried on when he saw I'd stopped and was looking back at him, carry on round the next bend and there's crap (mostly packing type stuff) all over the road and blowing into the hedges.


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## DaveReading (31 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> if we locked down sooner maybe they realised there would be even more resistance?



Yes, selling the lockdown to the country last Monday was helped by the massive media coverage of all those idiots at the seaside and up mountains the previous weekend.


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

It's common sense to not go out driving after after drinking but many do and many are not some joy rider. But more often than not a "ladies that lunch" set. Who think they are above the law it's fine I only had a drink or two.

Same with the current situation we can't just rely on common sense many don't care , many have the means to take a drive to do a walk and will do it. As staying local is not seen as something meant for them. It's common sense not to rush out and buy all the toilet roll you can get but it happened.

This is a public health emergency and needs to have powers that treat it as one.
I'm with @Johnno260 on this for some of us this has become personal. Everyone who looking for a little bend of the rules here and how much can I push it. Is increasing the chance that a loved one may not becoming home. His wife and mine just like many others have no choice but to face this thing head on. Unlike most of us who have a choice we can play by the rules and help each other or carry on looking for a way's to bend the rules.


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> Anyone else noticed an increase in fly tipping? I'm pretty sure I missed catching someone by minutes this morning, white van and driver on small lane that just for some reason made me suspicious straight away, he pulled over just after I'd passed him then carried on when he saw I'd stopped and was looking back at him, carry on round the next bend and there's crap (mostly packing type stuff) all over the road and blowing into the hedges.



Not so much yet but I'm seeing a lot of is gloves which look to be the new takeaway rubbish thown from passing cars. 
Which is both totally wrong and a public health hazard.


----------



## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> Anyone else noticed an increase in fly tipping? I'm pretty sure I missed catching someone by minutes this morning, white van and driver on small lane that just for some reason made me suspicious straight away, he pulled over just after I'd passed him then carried on when he saw I'd stopped and was looking back at him, carry on round the next bend and there's crap (mostly packing type stuff) all over the road and blowing into the hedges.



loads here, we have a road blocked as it looks like someone drove a flatbed along the road and just pushed broken fence panels off the back. 



DaveReading said:


> Yes, selling the lockdown to the country last Monday was helped by the massive media coverage of all those idiots at the seaside and up mountains the previous weekend.



almost all the media coverage is click bait trash, but yea the packed beaches etc just gonna make more people rush there.


----------



## Rusty Nails (31 Mar 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> It interesting that the ONS have decided to include the particular new numbers they have, to artificially bolster the rate figures. They’ve scored a spectacular own goal. The new figures include deaths outside of hospitals. Now let’s see. The ‘mantra’ for justifying the degree of controls / lockdown is “Stay at home” ( they’re dead, it’s irrelevant, as dead people can’t spread the virus ) “Protect the NHS” ( people who’ve died outside of hospital won’t require hospital beds / ventilators / ITU so aren’t going to be a drain on NHS resources are they?) “save lives” ( They’re already dead, they can’t help you with that Boris). If this attempted manipulation of the figures fares as well as the last tactic to artificially bolster the numbers, by changing the recording period from 8 hrs to 24 hrs did ( it only worked for about 2 or 3 days) then I think the next tactic will be to start counting any death, where the person had Corona virus in their system, regardless of whether that had much influence in why they died, or not ( for example they died because they got hit by a car, but they were found to have CV in their system, so they count in CV death stats ). That would be a truly desperate attempt, but going on evidence thus far, not beyond the realms of possibility.



If anything the previous figures, which primarily included people who died in hospitals, deflated the numbers. There are huge numbers of people who have/had the virus, but because of very limited testing were not counted.

It is important to get a better figure for the size of the problem, including those dying at home or in care/nursing homes. Obviously the doctor signing the death certificate needs to be confident the death was due to Covid-19.


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

A man who tried to steal from the cars of NHS staff working shifts during the coronavirus crisis has been jailed for 12 months.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-52102760
Total low life let's hope he won't need help from prison health care staff. 
Many prisoners don't like this sort of stuff either be hoped he has eyes in his back.


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

People have common sense ......

View: https://twitter.com/WYP_RPU/status/1244686006630178818?s=20


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> Anyone else noticed an increase in fly tipping?


Yes. Council tips are shut.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Yes, selling the lockdown to the country last Monday was helped by the massive media coverage of all those idiots at the seaside and up mountains the previous weekend.


Maybe that's why Boris announced step 1 of lockdown before he could enforce it. #manufacturedCrisisExaggeration


----------



## Fab Foodie (31 Mar 2020)

@Brompton Bruce did the proff. just get mentioned in dispatches this evening? 5pm Briefing?


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## PeteXXX (31 Mar 2020)

Would any other PM, or political party, made different decisions?


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## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

Let’s all just agree, there are too many morons.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> People have common sense ......
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/WYP_RPU/status/1244686006630178818?s=20



dealt with under current law. No justification there for tightening.


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Protecting the NHS is not just to prevent it being over ran and not being able to cope with Covid cases. 
But it allow's staff to have time for little thing's which often mean the most. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52104361

I'm also aware of a covid case which a Nurse used FaceTime so his family could say good bye.


----------



## Beebo (31 Mar 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> Anyone else noticed an increase in fly tipping? I'm pretty sure I missed catching someone by minutes this morning, white van and driver on small lane that just for some reason made me suspicious straight away, he pulled over just after I'd passed him then carried on when he saw I'd stopped and was looking back at him, carry on round the next bend and there's crap (mostly packing type stuff) all over the road and blowing into the hedges.


All council tips are closed. So there is nowhere to dispose of the rubbish. 
It isn’t surprising that idiots dump it elsewhere. 
I would have thought that the tips could stay open with limited access as people are doing DIY and gardening.


----------



## Rusty Nails (31 Mar 2020)

mjr said:


> Yes. Council tips are shut.



Our local council has stopped garden waste collections to make better use of manpower, and closed the tip. People are moaning about what are they going to do about mowing, clippings etc. If they are lucky enough to have a garden then surely they have enough space to have a compost bin, or to have a small space to pile the waste for a while. It may not look tidy, but that is not important in the overall scheme of things.

There is no excuse for fly-tipping, but then again there never has been and it still continues.

My garden is going to look very bare this year; I might try to put some seeds in, but there will be no shopping trips for bedding plants. The knackered forsythia bush I was going to chop down has had a year's reprieve.


----------



## Rocky (31 Mar 2020)

Fab Foodie said:


> @Brompton Bruce did the proff. just get mentioned in dispatches this evening? 5pm Briefing?


Yes!! It was her that was mentioned - but the deputy CMO might have slightly mis-interpreted what the Prof's review said.

(Thanks for the tip-off, FF)


----------



## oldwheels (31 Mar 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Jump up in deaths today. Wonder if it’s the result from all the previous weekend’s jollies in parks, etc.


Never very happy with statistics but Scottish death rate seems to have remained steady at 3%. this comes from Prof John Robertson who keeps an eye on such things.


----------



## Stephenite (31 Mar 2020)

Facebuck gif. Had me in stitches...


View: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10220574078336252&id=1662803549


----------



## Rusty Nails (31 Mar 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> Would any other PM, or political party, made different decisions?



They all would..........................when they didn't have to make those decisions at the time.


----------



## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Yes!! It was her that was mentioned - but the deputy CMO might have slightly mis-interpreted what the Prof's review said.
> 
> (Thanks for the tip-off, FF)



Is she now doing autographs


----------



## Rocky (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Is she now doing autographs


At this very moment she's putting a pie in the oven for our tea


----------



## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

oh after her own cookery show as well is she ?


----------



## kingrollo (31 Mar 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> Would any other PM, or political party, made different decisions?



Of course thats a way of looking at - not unreasonable.

But we ignored WHO testing advice, intentionally or by accident opted out of the EU ventilator scheme, Watched the horrific events & numbers unfold in Italy effectively giving us 2 weeks notice yet little or no evasive action was taken, Boris then on national TV made what I thought was a pretty decent address to nation - only for the official guidance to be something different,

Sure now isn't the time to play party politics - but theirs a few decisions in their which in a democratic country are at least questionable


----------



## Rocky (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> oh after her own cookery show as well is she ?


She was taught by this chap.....who some here might remember


----------



## DCLane (31 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> At this very moment she's putting a pie in the oven for our tea



Keeping her grounded


----------



## kingrollo (31 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> She was taught by this chap.....who some here might remember
> 
> View attachment 511728


bring me up to speed - who are we on about here ?


----------



## kingrollo (31 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> At this very moment she's putting a* pie in the oven for our tea*


is that a euphemism ?


----------



## Rezillo (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> Protecting the NHS is not just to prevent it being over ran and not being able to cope with Covid cases.
> But it allow's staff to have time for little thing's which often mean the most.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52104361
> ...



Some remarkable responses to the crisis by healthcare staff in Italy.

From https://www.thelocal.it/20200330/more-than-60-doctors-have-died-in-italys-coronavirus-outbreak

"Italy's coronavirus outbreak is taking a heavy toll on health workers, with more than 60 doctors confirmed to have died since it began. A total of 61 doctors have died during the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy, says the national federation of doctors FNOMCeO, including at least 22 in the past week. According to its list most of the victims worked in and around Lombardy, the region at the centre of the Italian outbreak, but doctors have also died further south in Le Marche, Campania, Sicily and Puglia.

In total 8,358 healthcare workers have contracted the new coronavirus in Italy, according to the latest count by the Italian Higher Health Institute (ISS). Around 4,000 of those infected are nurses, said the head of nurses' federation FNOPI, Barbara Mangiacavalli.

Despite the dangers nearly 9,500 nurses volunteered to join a national coronavirus task force to help at hospitals in the worst-affected regions, she said on Sunday.

Italy's Civil Protection department sought 500 nurses as emergency reinforcements, but within 48 hours had received 9,448 applications.

Last week the department received nearly 8,000 applications from doctors volunteering for a similar task force, after asking for 300".


----------



## Rocky (31 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> bring me up to speed - who are we on about here ?


The Prof is on the right and the king of pies, the late Vernon Levy, is on the left. Vernon and the Prof used to exchange pies - she still uses one of his recipes - she is also doing a huge amount of work on the evidence and guidelines for treating patients with COVID.


----------



## ozboz (31 Mar 2020)

My GF has just handed me this , it is in today’s Metro, surely this can’t be ,
can it ?


----------



## DCLane (31 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> bring me up to speed - who are we on about here ?



Vernon - pie-eating half-Scottish half-West Indian absinthe-drinking slow-riding project-doing cyclist with a permanent smile

And a much missed CC member


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> View attachment 511730
> 
> 
> My GF has just handed me this , it is in today’s Metro, surely this can’t be ,
> can it ?




I suspect the picture is real.

I think we should look at the Western world's embrace of factory farming as well as China's abuses. 

We could sort out puppy farming while we're at it.


----------



## Rocky (31 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> Vernon - pie-eating half-Scottish half-West Indian absinthe-drinking slow-riding project-doing cyclist with a permanent smile
> 
> And a much missed CC member


A perfect description!!


----------



## kingrollo (31 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The Prof is on the right and the king of pies, the late Vernon Levy, is on the left. Vernon and the Prof used to exchange pies - she still uses one of his recipes - she is also doing a huge amount of work on the evidence and guidelines for treating patients with COVID.



And the lady on the right is you're partner ? (apologies if thats hopelessly wrong )


----------



## Rocky (31 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> And the lady on the right is you're partner ? (apologies if thats hopelessly wrong )


Yes, she is.

She is also a cyclist and ex triathlete.


----------



## winjim (31 Mar 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Of course thats a way of looking at - not unreasonable.
> 
> But we ignored WHO testing advice, intentionally or by accident opted out of the EU ventilator scheme, Watched the horrific events & numbers unfold in Italy effectively giving us 2 weeks notice yet little or no evasive action was taken, Boris then on national TV made what I thought was a pretty decent address to nation - only for the official guidance to be something different,
> 
> Sure now isn't the time to play party politics - but theirs a few decisions in their which in a democratic country are at least questionable


Ten years of austerity and underinvestment in the NHS. The Tories have been running the NHS into the ground. The service wasn't coping before the pandemic, never mind now.

But hey, we had two minutes of applause so that's fine, right.


Article from before the pandemic, published just before the election:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/doctor-johnson-thousands-deaths-nhs-patient


Yes, it's farking political.


----------



## Skibird (31 Mar 2020)

ozboz said:


> View attachment 511730
> 
> 
> My GF has just handed me this , it is in today’s Metro, surely this can’t be ,
> can it ?


It can, they are the vilest, most disgusting country in the world for their treatment of animals. The HORROR I have seen them inflict on animals is worse than your worst nightmare.


----------



## Dave7 (31 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The Prof is on the right and the king of pies, the late Vernon Levy, is on the left. Vernon and the Prof used to exchange pies - she still uses one of his recipes - she is also doing a huge amount of work on the evidence and guidelines for treating patients with COVID.


A question or two if I may.
Although I have been a CC member for some years I was on the periphery and am just a casual cyclist with no mechanical skills.
I realise Vernon was a much respected (may I say loved) member. But.......
Tell me a little about him.
I gather he passed away. When was that?
Can I assume an illness took him or was it an accident?
Not being morbid here.....I have seen his name so often that I feel I should know more of him.
Feel free to ignore this if you wish.


----------



## ianrauk (31 Mar 2020)

DCLane said:


> Vernon - pie-eating half-Scottish half-West Indian absinthe-drinking slow-riding project-doing cyclist with a permanent smile
> 
> And a much missed CC member


Don't forget....Kilt wearing Pie giver too.... 👍


----------



## ianrauk (31 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> A question or two if I may.
> Although I have been a CC member for some years I was on the periphery and am just a casual cyclist with no mechanical skills.
> I realise Vernon was a much respected (may I say loved) member. But.......
> Tell me a little about him.
> ...


Vernon was a much loved member of the community. He retired from his job as a teacher then suffered a heart attack shortly afterwards. Put Vernon in the search box. You will find many fabulous threads about him.


----------



## Rocky (31 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> A question or two if I may.
> Although I have been a CC member for some years I was on the periphery and am just a casual cyclist with no mechanical skills.
> I realise Vernon was a much respected (may I say loved) member. But.......
> Tell me a little about him.
> ...


Vernon died in March 2016, a couple of days after he had retired as a teacher. He was with his wife and visiting his daughter in Europe when he had a heart attack. He was a lovely man, with an impish sense of humour and dedicated to educating some of the most challenging adolescents in Leeds. He had a number of loves: his family, his friends (many of them on CC), his Woodrup Rohloff Chimera bike, pies and booze. He loved touring on his bike - and a search on CC will reveal some of his many adventures in the UK, Europe and the US. He produced a map of pie shops in Yorkshire and carefully graded each pie awarding points for look, taste, texture etc. He was well loved by all - I was one of his many friends having met him through CC. He also loved modelling and I am still in contact with one of his US friends who he met via a modelling website. Vern stayed with him at the start and end of his US adventure in the summer of 2015.

edit: @ianrauk has beaten me to it!! Thanks Ian :-)


----------



## stephec (31 Mar 2020)

Is it really four years?


----------



## Fab Foodie (31 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Yes, she is.
> 
> She is also a cyclist and ex triathlete.


....and bon-viveur....


----------



## Rocky (31 Mar 2020)

stephec said:


> Is it really four years?


Pretty much to the day


----------



## Tanis8472 (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's common sense to not go out driving after after drinking but many do and many are not some joy rider. But more often than not a "ladies that lunch" set. Who think they are above the law it's fine I only had a drink or two.
> 
> Same with the current situation we can't just rely on common sense many don't care , many have the means to take a drive to do a walk and will do it. As staying local is not seen as something meant for them. It's common sense not to rush out and buy all the toilet roll you can get but it happened.
> 
> ...



Same here, my mrs is one of the 1.5m high risk people. I'm still having to work (key worker 🙄 ) whilst taking steps to minimise exposure which farkin customers break.


----------



## stephec (31 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Pretty much to the day


That's gone a bit quick, if I'd been asked to guess I would've said two to three.


----------



## Dave7 (31 Mar 2020)

ianrauk said:


> Vernon was a much loved member of the community. He retired from his job as a teacher then suffered a heart attack shortly afterwards. Put Vernon in the search box. You will find many fabulous threads about him.


I have seen many comments about him, all of them good. Sounds like he was a genuine nice guy.


----------



## Dave7 (31 Mar 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Vernon died in March 2016, a couple of days after he had retired as a teacher. He was with his wife and visiting his daughter in Europe when he had a heart attack. He was a lovely man, with an impish sense of humour and dedicated to educating some of the most challenging adolescents in Leeds. He had a number of loves: his family, his friends (many of them on CC), his Woodrup Rohloff Chimera bike, pies and booze. He loved touring on his bike - and a search on CC will reveal some of his many adventures in the UK, Europe and the US. He produced a map of pie shops in Yorkshire and carefully graded each pie awarding points for look, taste, texture etc. He was well loved by all - I was one of his many friends having met him through CC. He also loved modelling and I am still in contact with one of his US friends who he met via a modelling website. Vern stayed with him at the start and end of his US adventure in the summer of 2015.
> 
> edit: @ianrauk has beaten me to it!! Thanks Ian :-)


Many thanks for your input. I feel sad and I never knew him.


----------



## GM (31 Mar 2020)

All this reminiscing, I was thinking the other day, it's a shame 'Regulator' is not still on the forum. He would have given a bit of NHS facts....


----------



## PK99 (31 Mar 2020)

GM said:


> All this reminiscing, I was thinking the other day, it's a shame 'Regulator' is not still on the forum. He would have given a bit of NHS facts....




.....Don't you mean very opinionated views on the NHS?


----------



## GM (31 Mar 2020)

PK99 said:


> .....Don't you mean very opinionated views on the NHS?



.... Only sometimes!


----------



## Rocky (31 Mar 2020)

GM said:


> .... Only sometimes!


He has a very good taste in gin, though.


----------



## nickyboy (31 Mar 2020)

GM said:


> All this reminiscing, I was thinking the other day, it's a shame 'Regulator' is not still on the forum. He would have given a bit of NHS facts....


I thank the day he flounced off CC


----------



## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

13 year old dies from the virus ..... 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52114476


----------



## AuroraSaab (31 Mar 2020)

The continuation of 'wet markets' in China is a mystery to me. I know they have a problem in Africa, and elsewhere, with bush meat, but in somewhere as regulated, authoritarian, and not-afraid-to-use-force, as China, I don't know why they allow these practises to persist. It can't just be bowing to tradition as they pretty much eradicated foot binding, within a generation, once they decided to act on it.


----------



## Rocky (31 Mar 2020)

The wet markets may well be where the virus originally crossed into humans, but don't forget that like most viruses, it's no respecter of wealth, ethnicity or culture. It seems that Italy's poor situation is due to traditional family structures: children, parents and grandparents living and interacting closely. It was also due in part to health care staff not having the correct PPE and passing the virus on to patients. We may well disapprove of aspects of Chinese culture but IMO, this alone cannot be blamed for the pandemic.


----------



## Dave7 (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> 13 year old dies from the virus .....
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52114476


Sad when anyone dies but that really tugs at the heart.


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## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Sad when anyone dies but that really tugs at the heart.



sure is
Added to the sadness is it’s been reported that he had no under laying conditions.


----------



## nickyboy (31 Mar 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> The continuation of 'wet markets' in China is a mystery to me. I know they have a problem in Africa, and elsewhere, with bush meat, but in somewhere as regulated, authoritarian, and not-afraid-to-use-force, as China, I don't know why they allow these practises to persist. It can't just be bowing to tradition as they pretty much eradicated foot binding, within a generation, once they decided to act on it.


The Chinese value freshness above all other things when it comes to food. If you go into a supermarket there (not a traditional wet market) it's very common to find a tank full of live fish. They're extracted with a net and the purchaser takes it home still alive
The wet markets aren't that popular with younger, better educated Chinese as they prefer supermarkets. But for the many millions of older Chinese this all they have aver known in terms of buying food...the daily trip to the market. And if they wanted meat, fish etc etc, then it was usually live, at least when it entered the market. 
I'll ask my Chinese friends tomorrow what is being done to regulate the markets better, post pandemic. I would expect that there ill be some major changes


----------



## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> sure is
> Added to the sadness is it’s been reported that he had no under laying conditions.



I keep hearing about viral load, so if someone is exposed to a large dose the symptoms are worse.

Also with these younger cases I would like to know, did they smoke or vap, with kids were they passive smoking as I think it’s a relevant piece of information.

With vaping is it creating better conditions in the lungs for infection? You are filling your lungs with excess moisture after all which can be a breeding ground for such things.


----------



## vickster (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> sure is
> Added to the sadness is it’s been reported that he had no under laying conditions.


The case has been referred to the coroner, nothing further has been said (at least not on BBC)
Coronavirus: 13-year-old boy dies, says London hospital trust https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52114476


----------



## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> The case has been referred to the coroner, nothing further has been said (at least not on BBC)
> Coronavirus: 13-year-old boy dies, says London hospital trust https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52114476


They reported it but have since removed it.


----------



## tom73 (31 Mar 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I keep hearing about viral load, so if someone is exposed to a large dose the symptoms are worse.
> 
> Also with these younger cases I would like to know, did they smoke or vap, with kids were they passive smoking as I think it’s a relevant piece of information.
> 
> With vaping is it creating better conditions in the lungs for infection? You are filling your lungs with excess moisture after all which can be a breeding ground for such things.



The whole vaping thing is wide open at the moment more evidence is needed before a link can be made. It’s very much an active area of debate.


----------



## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2020)

tom73 said:


> The whole vaping thing is wide open at the moment more evidence is needed before a link can be made. It’s very much an active area of debate.



true, I just always thought it seemed nuts adding smoke to your lungs sure that’s a no brainer, but to me adding extra moisture seems risky as well.
Like you said it needs further research.


----------



## Buck (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> They reported it but have since removed it.



They won’t want to second guess the Coroner so will have retracted that part!


----------



## MarkF (1 Apr 2020)

Figures were put up outside my rest room yesterday so I'll assume that they are public. From what I remember....

Tested - 680
Positive - 70
In hospital - 27
In ICU - 3
Deaths - 5

27 Patients would fill 65%-75% of the 3 wards that were set aside and lent themselves to this situation, ones where there were a good number of individual rooms making isolation simple. 2 more wards have been cleared but these are regular open ones with maybe only 2 - 4 individual rooms per ward.

No testing (that I have noticed) for over a week in the 3 pods installed for this purpose.


----------



## Venod (1 Apr 2020)

On top of all the stress, worry and hard work the NHS staff are enduring, they have been threatened with a free Rick Astley concert.


----------



## AndyRM (1 Apr 2020)

I went to bed last night hoping I'd wake up and find out this was all an elaborate joke. 

Sadly not.


----------



## winjim (1 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Figures were put up outside my rest room yesterday so I'll assume that they are public. From what I remember....
> 
> Tested - 680
> Positive - 70
> ...


I have a very slight cough and shortness of breath, I'm in two minds whether to go for a test. I really think it's nothing. One year old had a cough and fever, wife has a cold, four year old unscathed. I think we'd all be down with it by now if it was Covid-19.

Anyway, I'm due back at work after Easter so I'll see what's going on then. I see that some groups are now suggesting PPE for all NHS staff.

All UK hospital staff and patients should wear masks, says doctors group

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-group?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard


----------



## pawl (1 Apr 2020)

Venod said:


> On top of all the stress, worry and hard work the NHS staff are enduring, they have been threatened with a free Rick Astley concert.





Nasty I Hope generally he is applauded for his gesture.


----------



## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> I have a very slight cough and shortness of breath, I'm in two minds whether to go for a test. I really think it's nothing. One year old had a cough and fever, wife has a cold, four year old unscathed. I think we'd all be down with it by now if it was Covid-19.


Do you have a fever? If so, please quarantine/isolate yourself rather than risk spreading what could be c19.


----------



## winjim (1 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Do you have a fever? If so, please quarantine/isolate yourself rather than risk spreading what could be c19.


Don't worry, we've all been in isolation since the baby developed his cough.


----------



## DCLane (1 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> I see that some groups are now suggesting PPE for all NHS staff.
> 
> All UK hospital staff and patients should wear masks, says doctors group



SWMBO's now having to wear a mask and PPE kit alongside everyone patient-facing in her unit.


----------



## Blue Hills (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> They reported it but have since removed it.


Entire report of the death removed or just aspects of the story?
I saw it on the beeb web early today.


----------



## vickster (1 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Entire report of the death removed or just aspects of the story?
> I saw it on the beeb web early today.


Just that he had no known underlying conditions - on the Beeb, they reported the family saying he was healthy, but the post mortem will determine if there was something unknown


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Entire report of the death removed or just aspects of the story?
> I saw it on the beeb web early today.


The no medical conditions aspect but now the story has been updated and now inc it again along with a wider write up. BBC news reports are inc it now also.


----------



## PK99 (1 Apr 2020)

Has anyone seen any data differentiating patients dying OF and dying WITH Covid -19?


----------



## matticus (1 Apr 2020)

Going back to the Ghoulish Data issue:
I'm a bit uncomfortable about the reporting of record new youngest patients.* Just my view*, but I see a strong sensationalist motivation there


----------



## winjim (1 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> Going back to the Ghoulish Data issue:
> I'm a bit uncomfortable about the reporting of record new youngest patients.* Just my view*, but I see a strong sensationalist motivation there


I kind of agree, but it is important to counter the narrative that all children are somehow immune or unaffected.


----------



## Blue Hills (1 Apr 2020)

Some folks trying to make an inernational incident out of this tragedy

BBC News - Coronavirus: Teenager 'could have survived with appropriate treatment'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52115265


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

Trust guidelines for Mrs 73 have been updated they've now been told to wear long sleeve apron. For all resus situations she been busy updating the response kit's. Which look's to be in line with resus council guidelines.


----------



## Venod (1 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Has anyone seen any data differentiating patients dying OF and dying WITH Covid -19?


I have not seen any, figures on this, the below is copied from the article I linked to upthread from the spectator, the problem I have with this is if Flu is not put down as the cause of death, how are the Flu death statistics compiled.


But there’s another, potentially even more serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded. If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.
Now look at what has happened since the emergence of Covid-19. The list of notifiable diseases has been updated. This list — as well as containing smallpox (which has been extinct for many years) and conditions such as anthrax, brucellosis, plague and rabies (which most UK doctors will never see in their entire careers) — has now been amended to include Covid-19. But not flu. That means every positive test for Covid-19 must be notified, in a way that it just would not be for flu or most other infections.


----------



## winjim (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Trust guidelines for Mrs 73 have been updated they've now been told to wear long sleeve apron. For all resus situations she been busy updating the response kit's. Which look's to be in line with resus council guidelines.


It'll be interesting to see what things are like when I get back to the lab. Obviously we treat all samples as a potential infection risk but I think COVID-19 has been designated a category 3 pathogen requiring special precautions, so if we are going to treat every patient as potentially infected, things could get difficult.

For reference, cat 3 includes things like HIV and Hepatitis C and requires special precautions in the lab. The next one up, cat 4, is stuff like Ebola, requiring specialist facilities not available in most hospital laboratories.


----------



## newfhouse (1 Apr 2020)

This ethics discussion on Radio 4 this morning was an interesting listen. I’m still not sure where I stand on how care will need to be rationed, and I’m glad I won’t have to make such judgements. First come, first served? Age? Chance of survival? Perceived societal value? Horrific choices, all.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

Seems a lot people are questioning the UK govt this morning - asking "what actually is ramping up " in practical terms.

Somebody from the chemical industry - has said there is no shortage of chemical s for the test - they could provide them if asked......

Me - I'm just hoping the extra ventilators aren't the same truck as the test kits, as that seems to have stuck somewhere for around 3 weeks now !


----------



## Unkraut (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> I’m still not sure where I stand on how care will need to be rationed, and I’m glad I won’t have to make such judgements.


Guidelines have been published here in case necessary, and a similar discussion last night. It is important that patients are not panicked into thinking if they are old they will not receive treatment, and doctors need to be relieved of the fear that the public prosecutor could be after them for decisions made leading to a death.

The criteria for deciding who gets treated when rationing includes not treating where survival is virtually impossible, then where it is unlikely to lead to a normal life again. Social status is to regarded as irrelevant. Patients who would require a long term level of intensive care after initial treatment would also be excluded. Decisions must be made by more than one doctor and also involve other staff as appropriate or possible.


----------



## wafter (1 Apr 2020)

Is anyone else concerned by the deaths to recovery ratio being recorded for Britain? As they currently stand, the Public Heath England figures cite 1789 deaths and 135 recoveries from 25150 confirmed cases. This means that of all the "concluded" cases (i.e. all those that have resulted in either death or recovery) the vast majority (around 92%) are deaths.

I appreciate that recoveries might take longer to confirm than deaths (the former requiring a certain symptom-free period to be sure, while death is pretty obvious and conclusive!). It's also possible that this could also be explained by a low proportion of tests being carried out; and if so most likely being administered only in the most severe of cases (i.e. when people are admitted to hospital, which seems to be the case currently).

Still, I find this very concerning since every other country shows a much higher proportion of recoveries to deaths, with even Italy recording only around 45% of "concluded" cases as resulting in death compared to our 92%. This trend has also been fairly consistant throughout the whole process in both countries (as illustrated nicely in Wikipedia's timeline bar charts for both the UK and Italy); rather than showing any lag. Perhaps Italy's process for confirming recoveries are less stringent than ours?

This is also worrying given that we currently have around 25k confirmed cases and following Italy's example it's likely that this will increase by a factor of four or five before it levels out. If the mortality rate remains as it is now we're looking at the vast majority of those cases resulting in death, so potentially in the region of 100,000 fatalities 

Can anyone shed any more light on this please?


----------



## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Some folks trying to make an inernational incident out of this tragedy
> 
> BBC News - Coronavirus: Teenager 'could have survived with appropriate treatment'
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52115265


Maybe you missed it, but the UK's looser approach to lockdown and especially testing was already an international incident, criticised from Italy but also France and Germany.


----------



## Unkraut (1 Apr 2020)

@wafter You cannot simply compare Italy and the UK or other countries. Deaths as a percentage of confirmed cases does not cover all those who have had the disease and who have recovered. The number of tests being made makes a vital difference. I suspect the UK has been aiming tests at those who already have serious symptoms, due to lack of capacity. The German death rate is comparatively low, but much larger numbers have been tested than elsewhere to date.


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> This ethics discussion on Radio 4 this morning was an interesting listen. I’m still not sure where I stand on how care will need to be rationed, and I’m glad I won’t have to make such judgements. First come, first served? Age? Chance of survival? Perceived societal value? Horrific choices, all.



I would imagine pure chances of survival, health issues vs clean bill of health.

Whatever the guidelines I don’t envy anyone having to make those calls.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (1 Apr 2020)

CV tracking app' - good idea or too Big Brother? I'm for it if it helps the fight:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52095331


----------



## newfhouse (1 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> CV tracking app' - good idea or too Big Brother? I'm for it if it helps the fight:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52095331


It’s not a yes/no answer. Who owns and controls the data and what will happen to it when this is over?


----------



## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I would imagine pure chances of survival, health issues vs clean bill of health.
> 
> Whatever the guidelines I don’t envy anyone having to make those calls.


The established protocol used to be to prioritise on the basis of expected quality adjusted life years, so basically the probability of survival multiplied by the number of years remaining in life expectancy reduced by the percentage impairment you're expected to suffer (so a year of life but on frequent dialysis is valued less than a year of life without that, but more than a year permanently on oxygen) There are injustices in that and several ways that medical opinion affect it, which is why multiple doctors have to agree, but it's the least worst system found so far 

I'm not aware of recent changes to this basic assessment method but it may have changed.


----------



## ozboz (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> This ethics discussion on Radio 4 this morning was an interesting listen. I’m still not sure where I stand on how care will need to be rationed, and I’m glad I won’t have to make such judgements. First come, first served? Age? Chance of survival? Perceived societal value? Horrific choices, all.


I’m glad I didn’t listen to that discussion ,I’d be a bit more depressed than I already am , on the judgements you mentioned , I’d just about scrape through as a first come stat ,


----------



## SpokeyDokey (1 Apr 2020)

wafter said:


> Is anyone else concerned by the deaths to recovery ratio being recorded for Britain? As they currently stand, the Public Heath England figures cite 1789 deaths and 135 recoveries from 25150 confirmed cases. This means that of all the "concluded" cases (i.e. all those that have resulted in either death or recovery) the vast majority (around 92%) are deaths.
> 
> I appreciate that recoveries might take longer to confirm than deaths (the former requiring a certain symptom-free period to be sure, while death is pretty obvious and conclusive!). It's also possible that this could also be explained by a low proportion of tests being carried out; and if so most likely being administered only in the most severe of cases (i.e. when people are admitted to hospital, which seems to be the case currently).
> 
> ...



I'm not sure that that sort of speculation is very helpful tbh.

Re mortality rates. I'm sticking with something between the WHO's 3.4% global projection and Chris Witty's 1% UK projection for now as I have to confess to being supremely unqualified to comment much on likely final death rates and volumes.


----------



## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> It’s not a yes/no answer. Who owns and controls the data and what will happen to it when this is over?


How easy will it be to fake a negative from it? If pubs are only checking display, a screenshot would fool most. If there's a challenge-response protocol, someone will probably sniff it and build an app that always responds clean. If there's a central database, how will businesses be stopped from harvesting it and misusing it? How will government abuses be prevented? Or government access keys being left on a USB stick in public place?

It's one of those things that the masses may well embrace, conditioned by years of being data-raped by "social" network apps with little government criticism (because they benefit from it but have plausible deniability), but it's a massive public infrastructure vulnerability which government should hesitate to support.

And it's only a vulnerability, so we won't know yes or no until years later, if we ever know.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> CV tracking app' - good idea or too Big Brother? I'm for it if it helps the fight:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52095331



I don’t walk round with a smartphone all the time and I rarely have data turned on. I’d object if my freedom was restricted due to lack of carrying a smartphone with this app. I’d want an alternative.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> This ethics discussion on Radio 4 this morning was an interesting listen. I’m still not sure where I stand on how care will need to be rationed, and I’m glad I won’t have to make such judgements. First come, first served? Age? Chance of survival? Perceived societal value? Horrific choices, all.


Nicest tits?



(sorry)


----------



## newfhouse (1 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Nicest tits?
> 
> 
> 
> (sorry)


That pair of lungs looks worth saving?



Equally sorry.


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> It'll be interesting to see what things are like when I get back to the lab. Obviously we treat all samples as a potential infection risk but I think COVID-19 has been designated a category 3 pathogen requiring special precautions, so if we are going to treat every patient as potentially infected, things could get difficult.
> 
> For reference, cat 3 includes things like HIV and Hepatitis C and requires special precautions in the lab. The next one up, cat 4, is stuff like Ebola, requiring specialist facilities not available in most hospital laboratories.



like you say be interesting if as the government is encouraging all hospital labs to use every bit extra capacity for staff testing.
The amount of possible Covid-19 samples will increase so without changers to work practice.
It's going to be difficult to keep every thing running effectively and at the same time keeping everyone safe.


----------



## vickster (1 Apr 2020)

Sounds like an upstanding member of society

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...using-to-tell-police-why-she-was-out-11966813


----------



## winjim (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> like you say be interesting if as the government is encouraging all hospital labs to use every bit extra capacity for staff testing.
> The amount of possible Covid-19 samples will increase so without changers to work practice.
> It's going to be difficult to keep every thing running effectively and at the same time keeping everyone safe.


Extra capacity lol. They're right in the middle of a plan to close down as many hospital labs as they can possibly get away with.

Anyway, I'm not just thinking of Covid-19 cases, I'm wondering what will happen if we designate all samples as presumptive positives.


----------



## matticus (1 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Sounds like an upstanding member of society
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...using-to-tell-police-why-she-was-out-11966813


I think it's significant that she was arrested for "travel fraud" as well as the other stuff.



> She was arrested for breaching the new Coronavirus Act and ticket fraud and appeared in court two days later, where she pleaded guilty to both offences.​


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Sounds like an upstanding member of society
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...using-to-tell-police-why-she-was-out-11966813


Least it’s a decent fine and not a token £30.


----------



## vickster (1 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Least it’s a decent fine and not a token £30.


Because she went to court and was clearly up to no good generally. Whether she’ll be able to pay is another matter but hopefully it’ll serve as a deterrent


----------



## Rezillo (1 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> Going back to the Ghoulish Data issue:
> I'm a bit uncomfortable about the reporting of record new youngest patients.* Just my view*, but I see a strong sensationalist motivation there





winjim said:


> I kind of agree, but it is important to counter the narrative that all children are somehow immune or unaffected.



I agree as well but there seems to be a misplaced view that this is exclusively a disease of the old. It needs to be countered. There's a similarly erroneous belief (not this story) about nearly all deaths being amongst those with pre-existing conditions when in Wuhan a third of deaths had none.

Part of the problem is a lack of appreciation of what age group percentages mean when applied to a population. You can have a high death rate in, say, the over 79s category but a far greater number of deaths overall in the lower death rate '69-79s' simply because there are many more people in that category.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (1 Apr 2020)

Surely more to this than meets the eye?


View: https://twitter.com/DrJamesKent3/status/1245249108148879362


----------



## matticus (1 Apr 2020)

I sort of agree with both of you!

But I think "death rates" are supposed to be quoted per 1000 people, technically? That's the important figure. And following on from that, ONE death in the under-15s is of absolutely no statistical significance, so reporting young deaths is mostly unhelpful.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> It’s not a yes/no answer. Who owns and controls the data and what will happen to it when this is over?



Probably 1) Facebook and 2) it will be monetised by Facebook


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> This ethics discussion on Radio 4 this morning was an interesting listen. I’m still not sure where I stand on how care will need to be rationed, and I’m glad I won’t have to make such judgements. First come, first served? Age? Chance of survival? Perceived societal value? Horrific choices, all.



Clinical decisions about who lives and dies are made every day the big difference. Now is it's become a mean stream topic. 
Often taken totally out of context in order to sell a paper or for click bate. 

The main problem with current situation is that some clinical decisions are going have to be made quickly and some Dr's will have to start making them more often than they are use to. Guidelines have been issued and will be followed. But no matter what the basic starting point is always chance of survival which always inc a range of clinical factors. 
I know it must be a worry for many but try not to. No HCP will ever think even given current situation "they are past it so why bother" or "they are of little Social value" 

Hopeful out of all this will came a willingness for more people to have "that what are your wishers conversation" within families. 
The other thing which may also come out of it is for the Dr's who sometimes keep going with treatments. Even though it's gone past being of benefit. Will have a better understanding when they keep getting met. With Nurse's fighting to allow someone to be able to die with dignity.


----------



## wafter (1 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I'm not sure that that sort of speculation is very helpful tbh.
> 
> Re mortality rates. I'm sticking with something between the WHO's 3.4% global projection and Chris Witty's 1% UK projection for now as I have to confess to being supremely unqualified to comment much on likely final death rates and volumes.


Speculation aside, without any futher explanation the numbers remain extremely concerning though, do they not? 

Assuming a midpoint of 2.2% mortality between the two values you suggest and applied to the whole UK population tallys well with my speculative outcome based on the current numbers; which is not a pleasant thought.


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

Lot of talk about ventilators it's true without staff they are pointless. 
But a less talked about issues is we are also going to need more blood gas machines. 
Anyone know if we've even started to order any? 
Or what current levels are?


----------



## Racing roadkill (1 Apr 2020)

The Government say they can’t get the chemical reagents, required to get the diagnostic tests done, which would almost certainly result in a decrease in the deaths / infections ratio, and allow front line medics to get back to doing their jobs, and making the situation look as it actually is ( not as desperate as the government is trying to make out ). The Chemical companies who make the reagents say that they have / can make the reagents and that the government is talking B.S. I’m shocked and amazed


----------



## SpokeyDokey (1 Apr 2020)

wafter said:


> Speculation aside, without any futher explanation the numbers remain extremely concerning though, do they not?
> 
> Assuming a midpoint of 2.2% mortality between the two values you suggest and applied to the whole UK population tallys well with my speculative outcome based on the current numbers; which is not a pleasant thought.



I thought the predicted death rates were as applicable to confirmed cases rather than the total population. If they aren't then the WHO 3.4% applied to the global population would be roughly 240 million deaths which seems very high to me.

I might well be wrong though - perhaps someone can confirm either way?


----------



## newfhouse (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Clinical decisions about who lives and dies are made every day


As you say, but perhaps not with the same immediacy or volume as we are about to witness. I do hope that we can ensure an appropriate level of psychological care for everyone involved.


----------



## wafter (1 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I thought the predicted death rates were as applicable to confirmed cases rather than the total population. If they aren't then the WHO 3.4% applied to the global population would be roughly 240 million deaths which seems very high to me.
> 
> I might well be wrong though - perhaps someone can confirm either way?


I think in reality it's neither, since confirmed cases will always significantly under-represent the amount of actual cases; while the testing regime will obviously massively influence the number of cases that are detected. Likewise various other factors will affect the actual mortality rate (quality of healthcare, population age etc) relative to the number of actual cases. 

Unfortunately due to these factors and others it seems very difficult to pin down any legitimate numbers..


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> As you say, but perhaps not with the same immediacy or volume as we are about to witness. I do hope that we can ensure an appropriate level of psychological care for everyone involved.



That's the other hidden part of this some experts believe we are going to see large numbers Medical staff suffering from PTSD over this. 
Some parts of the NHS are not known for being great at caring for staff.


----------



## PK99 (1 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I don’t walk round with a smartphone all the time and I rarely have data turned on. I’d object if my freedom was restricted due to lack of carrying a smartphone with this app. I’d want an alternative.



Again, a good example of how the Chinese, Taiwanese, Korean "Test. Track. Trace. Test. Restrict" approach would be futile here. 

Everybody is getting so her up about mass testing- it is not the testing that is important it is how you use the results to control spread that matter.


----------



## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

DCLane said:


> Finally got round to watching the BBC4 programme Contagion, linked further upthread: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic


Not for the nervous! Although if you want some optimism, the passage starting at 1:05:30 "We need ways to slow down a pandemic..." on hand-washing is worth viewing. That should have been broadcast much more widely.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (1 Apr 2020)

Sadly, the UK deaths recorded for yesterday has breached the 500 barrier according to Sky News.

This is what the Government predicted ie a rapid ramping up for a relatively short period of time so let's hope that they are right.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...vid-19-in-uk-bringing-total-to-2-352-11966771


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Sadly, the UK deaths recorded for yesterday has breached the 500 barrier according to Sky News.
> 
> This is what the Government predicted ie a rapid ramping up for a relatively short period of time so let's hope that they are right.
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...vid-19-in-uk-bringing-total-to-2-352-11966771



I know it was to be expected but, I have no words.


----------



## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

News from Belgium: reduction in admissions and increase in discharges, factories being requisitioned to produce masks, customs prioritising checking mask imports closely, former hospitals being converted into isolation hotels for discharged patients, loss of smell/taste now estimated at 90% (pictured), surprise hypermarket strkes due to shortages of alcohol gel/spray and gloves, foreign news: Trump U-turn in US, the "tsunami" of cases in the UK and the lack of testing, drastic measures in France with some apartments totally isolated en masse, ORF in Austria has quarantined 25 core news show editors, technicians and presenters to ensure the main channel keeps running, restauranteurs giving meals to hospitals.


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## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> This is what the Government predicted ie a rapid ramping up for a relatively short period of time so let's hope that they are right.


When did they predict that? Before or after their lockdown preannouncements produced a weekend of people heading for a last beer and then a last day trip and hence probably this surge about 10 days later?


----------



## Rusty Nails (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's the other hidden part of this some experts believe we are going to see large numbers Medical staff suffering from PTSD over this.
> Some parts of the NHS are not known for being great at caring for staff.



A friend of ours is an experienced A&E senior nurse who has had a week off on pre-arranged leave. She has two young kids and is absolutely terrified of going into work in a very busy hospital that will soon be overrun, with all the added concerns about PPE and testing, but is going to put her fears aside and go in.

Apart from the risk to her physical health the stresses she is facing will not be good for her in the long term.

It seems to me that the government have taken their medical staff for granted, and not fully prioritised looking after them as part of the solution.


----------



## newfhouse (1 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> It seems to me that the government have taken their medical staff for granted, and not fully prioritised looking after them as part of the solution.


Many good people are going to be damaged by this. Public clapping, as much of a temporary boost as it may provide, is no substitute for proper long term support.

We shouldn’t be surprised. We have never been good enough at looking after public servants - armed forces and blue light workers - broken by their experiences.


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> A friend of ours is an experienced A&E senior nurse who has had a week off on pre-arranged leave. She has two young kids and is absolutely terrified of going into work in a very busy hospital that will soon be overrun, with all the added concerns about PPE and testing, but is going to put her fears aside and go in.
> 
> Apart from the risk to her physical health the stresses she is facing will not be good for her in the long term.
> 
> It seems to me that the government have taken their medical staff for granted, and not fully prioritised looking after them as part of the solution.


Yep sounds about right Mrs 73 feels the same but she will carry it‘s what’s they do. As this situation continues having staff off due to having or maybe having the virus. Won’t be the only sickness the government need to worry about.


----------



## PK99 (1 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> When did they predict that? Before or after their lockdown preannouncements produced a weekend of people heading for a last beer and then a last day trip and hence probably this surge about 10 days later?


I'm confused.

Would you have preferred unannounced, mandatory rigidly enforced closures and restrictions on movements?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (1 Apr 2020)

I'm betting every country is seeing their own Monday morning quarterbacks, but most countries are seeing similar results -






The exceptions being China - whose figures should not be believed for one second and countries in the Far East with far more compliant populations than the West.


----------



## matticus (1 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> I'm confused.
> 
> Would you have preferred unannounced, mandatory rigidly enforced closures and restrictions on movements?


Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but if they'd brought in the *current* rules/guidance before that one crazy sunny weekend, we would have had a lot less problems.
Giving hints that things would soon become stricter was asking for trouble.


----------



## wafter (1 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm betting every country is seeing their own Monday morning quarterbacks, but most countries are seeing similar results -
> 
> View attachment 511883
> 
> ...


Indeed. As shocking as they are, nobody who's paying attention should be surprised by the growing daily number of deaths in the UK. 

It seems the media treats these announcements with a certain amount of faux-surprise; not sure if this is to be encouraged to shock people into acting more responsibly, or decried as un-necessarily sensationalist. Either way it's grim reading.


----------



## nickyboy (1 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm betting every country is seeing their own Monday morning quarterbacks, but most countries are seeing similar results -
> 
> View attachment 511883
> 
> ...


Putting PRC to one side it isn't the compliance of HK, Taiwan, Singapore that kept the epidemic at bay. It was the memory of SARS
Imagine this happens again here in 10 years time. The public's reaction would be very different as we would know exactly what to do regarding hygiene, social distancing etc. First time round you learn as you go (which is why hundreds died in HK from SARS as they had to learn as they went)
SK is a bit different. Talking to friends in Seoul they keep repeating that it's their general preparedness for something catastrophic, NK border only being a short distance away, that meant they were able to react as they did. They are in a permanent state of readiness
You're right about PRC though. Culturally they have accepted direction unswervingly from their government for many years. As such PRC was able to have a very severe lockdown that probably could never be observed on other countries


----------



## MarkF (1 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> All UK hospital staff and patients should wear masks, says doctors group
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-group?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard



I think everybody is wearing a mask (not full PPE) now, even low risk, non-patient facing admin bods. I've not been given a P3 mask yet and never expect to be, only 2 basic versions. One is elasticated (hoops around ears) and fits very well, you can mould the nose bridge to your face and make a decent seal so that when you inhale, it compresses. But I am rushing around in a sweaty mess so it gets really warm, moist and very, very uncomfortable. The other is one you tie with upper and lower "laces" behind your head, these are very comfortable for me but I am aware that the seal is non-existent. More of a concern to me is virus patients refusing to wear a mask or ripping them off.

Quite a few middle aged Asian people in today, this is alarming , because a mid 50's person locally will very probably be living with 3, perhaps 4 generations.....


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

A GP surgery has apologised after sending a letter asking patients with life-limiting illnesses to complete a "do not resuscitate" form.

I understand the need to encourage people to both think about and let family know what your wishers are. 
But this is just crass and so ill thought out. Who ever thought it was good idea has no understanding about being sensitive around this. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52117814


----------



## nickyboy (1 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but if they'd brought in the *current* rules/guidance before that one crazy sunny weekend, we would have had a lot less problems.
> Giving hints that things would soon become stricter was asking for trouble.


I think you can only judge the timing and severity of lockdowns with hindsight.

We are just 10 days into what will probably be at least 10 weeks of lockdown. Already in Italy which has been locked down for longer there is no happy clapping and singing. People are struggling financially, mentally and emotionally. And they aren't even half way through their lockdown

What I'm trying to say is that lockdowns exact a high price from the people as they drag on, week after week. Perhaps understandably governments are very reluctant to impose them until the last possible minute


----------



## slowmotion (1 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm betting every country is seeing their own Monday morning quarterbacks, but most countries are seeing similar results -
> 
> View attachment 511883
> 
> ...


The number of deaths is plotted on a logarithmic scale. If they plotted them on a linear scale it would look even more grim.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

Wot time is today's 

"We are ramping up the testing next week" announcement !


----------



## vickster (1 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Wot time is today's
> 
> "We are ramping up the testing next week" announcement !


5pm press briefing I think


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yep sounds about right Mrs 73 feels the same but she will carry it‘s what’s they do. As this situation continues having staff off due to having or maybe having the virus. Won’t be the only sickness the government need to worry about.


I think some form of PTSD is a certainty in many cases, we need to rethink how all public workers are looked after.



tom73 said:


> A GP surgery has apologised after sending a letter asking patients with life-limiting illnesses to complete a "do not resuscitate" form.



My wife’s Grandma insisted on filling one of these in before her hip surgery, she was insistent on not using NHS resources on anything but her hip.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

Did I read correctly that only 2,000 NHS staff have been tested ?

Edit - yes the guardian are quoting that figure.


----------



## winjim (1 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> I'm confused.
> 
> Would you have preferred unannounced, mandatory rigidly enforced closures and restrictions on movements?





matticus said:


> Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but if they'd brought in the *current* rules/guidance before that one crazy sunny weekend, we would have had a lot less problems.
> Giving hints that things would soon become stricter was asking for trouble.


They could just have done it a fortnight earlier. It was still pissing it down in early March anyway.


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> My wife’s Grandma insisted on filling one of these in before her hip surgery, she was insistent on not using NHS resources on anything but her hip.


That's fine it's her wish take's away any worry for her and family. She stay's fully in control of her life and wishers. 
Encouraging people to talk about it is fine but shaming people into feeling they should sign one is plan wrong.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

I started off disagreeing with the govt response. Right now I think they really don't have any idea what to do .


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's fine it's her wish take's away any worry for her and family. She stay's fully in control of her life and wishers.
> Encouraging people to talk about it is fine but shaming people into feeling they should sign one is plan wrong.



yup it should be something that’s done through choice and not being forced in anyway, in this case she is an ex ENT doctor so is very matter of fact.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Apr 2020)

Interesting article on picking up that you have infection before symptoms show.

https://www.whoop.com/the-locker/respiratory-rate-tracking-coronavirus/


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Apr 2020)

Venod said:


> On top of all the stress, worry and hard work the NHS staff are enduring, they have been threatened with a free Rick Astley concert.



Well if I were them I’d never give that up.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> I kind of agree, but it is important to counter the narrative that all children are somehow immune or unaffected.



I agree with this. For all our sakes the message needs to get through. Everyone needs to social isolate, there’s no guarantee you will be fine because <....>


----------



## Julia9054 (1 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Interesting article on picking up that you have infection before symptoms show.
> 
> https://www.whoop.com/the-locker/respiratory-rate-tracking-coronavirus/


I’d be more inclined to take their advice seriously if it wasn’t from a company trying to sell me an expensive gadget


----------



## Rusty Nails (1 Apr 2020)

The first few briefing questions were asking about the delays in testing and why the rhetoric about ramping up tests, especially for the NHS staff does not match the reality.

I am so bloody angry that Sharma and Yvonne Doyle are not answering any of the questions just repeating the mantra that progress is being made and plans are in place . It's all about ignoring past performance and look how well we will be doing. No admission at all that things could have been done better.

Cummings may be in self-isolation but his acolytes are still calling the shots.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Apr 2020)

ozboz said:


> I’m glad I didn’t listen to that discussion ,I’d be a bit more depressed than I already am , on the judgements you mentioned , I’d just about scrape through as a first come stat ,



This is why flattening the curve is important. The less patients they have to make decisions on, the less overwhelmed they are, the better everyone has a chance of getting treatment (cpac, ventilators) if necessary.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I’d be more inclined to take their advice seriously if it wasn’t from a company trying to sell me an expensive gadget



It is the USA they can’t help it. But nevertheless an interesting theory and if open source could be added to any Fitbit / activity monitor or smartphone app with strap.


----------



## Mo1959 (1 Apr 2020)

Not impressed by today’s briefing. Just more promises and very little action.


----------



## Adam4868 (1 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The first few briefing questions were asking about the delays in testing and why the rhetoric about ramping up tests, especially for the NHS staff does not match the reality.
> 
> I am so bloody angry that Sharma and Yvonne Doyle are not answering any of the questions just repeating the mantra that progress is being made and plans are in place . It's all about ignoring past performance and look how well we will be doing. No admission at all that things could have been done better.
> 
> Cummings may be in self-isolation but his acolytes are still calling the shots.


Why are any of the journalists not allowed to ask for a answer ? 
I rarely watch these daily updates,but just watched this one....exactly what I was expecting.Not much !


----------



## Rusty Nails (1 Apr 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Why are any of the journalists not allowed to ask for a answer ?
> I rarely watch these daily updates,but just watched this one....exactly what I was expecting.Not much !



They ought to call them the daily government PR show. It is nothing to do with informing the public.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Not impressed by today’s briefing. Just more promises and very little action.


Are they ramping up the testing next week ?


----------



## winjim (1 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Are they ramping up the testing next week ?


'Within weeks' I think. Not sure how many weeks exactly.


----------



## Rusty Nails (1 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Are they ramping up the testing next week ?



It is their main priority


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

I read somewhere that the govt said that it delivers the testing kits to the hospital and it's up to each hospital how they split them between patients/staff !!!!!

We are the self regulation society!!! - ass covering !!!


----------



## winjim (1 Apr 2020)

It's alright lads, the ventilators are on their way.


View: https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1245368530029117441?s=19


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> 'Within weeks' I think. Not sure how many weeks exactly.



Lots would my thinking !!!!!


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> It's alright lads, the ventilators are on their way.
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1245368530029117441?s=19



Good job we opted out the EU scheme then !!!


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

Another trend I have noticed is a trickle back to work under the guise:-

"We are doing some work for ventilators"

Heard a few people have been asked to go in with this excuse. Seemed a fair bit more traffic on the roads today....


----------



## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but if they'd brought in the *current* rules/guidance before that one crazy sunny weekend, we would have had a lot less problems.
> Giving hints that things would soon become stricter was asking for trouble.


or it was a way to sacrifice a load of plebs (with on average trade unionist tendencies) to manufacture support for the lockdown and attempt to guilt-trip MPs.

Here's a radical idea: announce restrictive measures when they start to come into effect, not hours/days before.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (1 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> They ought to call them the daily government PR show. It is nothing to do with informing the public.


As opposed to this, which is a proper gander broadcast...


----------



## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Another trend I have noticed is a trickle back to work under the guise:-
> 
> "We are doing some work for ventilators"
> 
> Heard a few people have been asked to go in with this excuse. Seemed a fair bit more traffic on the roads today....


It may be true because there's a lot of stuff goes into those machines, with some suppliers unaware their products eventually contributed to medical equipment until now.


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

1st Nurse death being reported 
Just seen off Mrs 73 on her night shift. 
Sure makes you think.


----------



## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> 1st Nurse death being reported
> Just seen off Mrs 73 on her night shift.
> Sure makes you think.


Surely we knew it was likely?


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

I've never liked the Tories - but trying to be neutral is it just me - or are we close to loosing control of the whole thing here....

We don't seem to have enough of anything , ITU beds, ventilators , well I don't suppose you have a massive stash of them...but given this started to get serious mid Jan - we still don't have masks for our frontline staff, testing seems all over the place - as does the lockdown - and then each day we are promised stuff that never arrives ....


----------



## wafter (1 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I've never liked the Tories - but trying to be neutral is it just me - or are we close to loosing control of the whole thing here....
> 
> We don't seem to have enough of anything , ITU beds, ventilators , well I don't suppose you have a massive stash of them...but given this started to get serious mid Jan - we still don't have masks for our frontline staff, testing seems all over the place - as does the lockdown - and then each day we are promised stuff that never arrives ....


If "we" are sensible we can choke the spread of the virus but yes, considering the government's slowness to act and arguable incompetence against a backdrop of an NHS that's been run into the ground for decades, it's not looking too hot for those who will require hospital care.

I imagine the government are crapping themselves - while it's just the odd granny not getting her hip replacement or dad dying of a heart attack having waited too long, they can get away with defunding the NHS / chopping it up and flogging its contracts off peacemeal to their cronies' private healthcare companies.

Conversely in the face of a nationwide crisis of a size unseen for a generation, the effects of their greed are laid bare to be seen by all who can see past the empty tokenistic gestures, synthetic gratitude and transparent politically-motivated rhetoric. If the NHS and its staff are such a valuable national asset, why have the incumbent government been systematically trying to destroy it for the past however-many decades?


----------



## Unkraut (1 Apr 2020)

wafter said:


> why have the incumbent government been systematically trying to destroy it for the past however-many decades?


Because they worship ££££££ mammon.


----------



## newfhouse (1 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Surely we knew it was likely?


Wow, that was insensitive.


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

This current situation is just turning into a right mess nothing looks to be joined up or coordinated. 
The right people are not making the key decisions, the ones in power at all levels are unwilling to admit they need help and let ones.
Who really can fix it and know how to get things moving from doing anything other then proving an extra pair of hands. 

So much of the national decisions are now made at local level with one bunch of politicians blaming another and in turn they blame the other back. Hospital trusts all doing what they like under one brand no longer managed by medical professionals. GP's now in charge of each other free to work to guidelines they put in place. Public services that everyone want's but no-one is willing to pay for, public that don't value them , happy to miss use them and slag them off. Dealing with anything like the current situation was never going to simple but boy they are making it a lot harder than it has to be.

Once this is over government and society will need to have a real think about making some real change to how we do things , the way we are governed both at national and local level. Together with forgetting the idea that some body else can pay for the services that we clearly need.


----------



## Blue Hills (1 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The first few briefing questions were asking about the delays in testing and why the rhetoric about ramping up tests, especially for the NHS staff does not match the reality.
> 
> I am so bloody angry that Sharma and Yvonne Doyle are not answering any of the questions just repeating the mantra that progress is being made and plans are in place . It's all about ignoring past performance and look how well we will be doing. No admission at all that things could have been done better.
> 
> Cummings may be in self-isolation but his acolytes are still calling the shots.


Agree that the questions weren't answered.
And the journalists might have been more persistent if there was more time and if boris had been stood there.
Anyone know where he is?
I thought his symptoms were supposed to be mild.


----------



## matticus (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Wow, that was insensitive.


In a thread with regular predictions of 1000s of deaths? Grim, yes


----------



## Mo1959 (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> This current situation is just turning into a right mess nothing looks to be joined up or coordinated.
> The right people are not making the key decisions, the ones in power at all levels are unwilling to admit they need help and let ones.
> Who really can fix it and know how to get things moving from doing anything other then proving an extra pair of hands.
> 
> ...


Think the most important lesson will be just how important health and social care staff actually are plus all the other so called working class. Just hope they are not forgotten again very quickly once we are in recovery.


----------



## Blue Hills (1 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Not impressed by today’s briefing. Just more promises and very little action.


Agree totally.
Just waffle, praise for nhs staff etc.
If the briefings continue on this curve they will soon be inviting us all to sing a hymn with them.


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Apr 2020)

Thing is with the shortage of ventilators, it’s a shortage for this crisis, I’m sure having a stockpile of these things brings up other issues. Storing them correctly, making sure nothing on them has expired etc etc 

but we should consider have more ITU beds per head like in Italy and Germany.

As the worry I have is the Italians are better provisioned than the NHS and it’s not exactly a party over there.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (1 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Some folks trying to make an inernational incident out of this tragedy
> 
> BBC News - Coronavirus: Teenager 'could have survived with appropriate treatment'
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52115265


As I posted last week, this boy was the nephew of my colleague.
He died last Tuesday, it took a week to do the corona virus tests post mortem.
He wasn't well, but of course nobody has access to a GP's visit anymore.
Like others that develop the corona virus symptoms, one is told to self isolate for 7 days, if you then still feel ill, you can phone the NHS 111 helpline.
Seven days was too late for him: his heart stopped while he was still at home, he got intubated in the ambulance, but one of his lungs collapsed.
He didn't make it to the hospital.
Maybe if he had been tested sooner, got to hospital sooner, he could have been saved?
The family will never know.


Unkraut said:


> I suspect the UK has been aiming tests at those who already have serious symptoms, due to lack of capacity.


Yes, I fear you are correct.


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Surely we knew it was likely?



Putting yourself at risk due to taking short cuts in the use of correct PPE is one thing. Willing to do your job out a sense of duty to others.
Even though you have nothing better then a bit of cloth , a bit of plastic and pair of gloves if your lucky is quite another. 

Health care staff don't need to die at work because of this.
They are and will because people well out of the danger are happy to let it happen. 

Why worry after all we've always got the death is service payment to look forward to and after all every little helps.


----------



## Mo1959 (1 Apr 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> As I posted last week, this boy was the nephew of my colleague.
> He died last Tuesday, it took a week to do the corona virus tests post mortem.
> He wasn't well, but of course nobody has access to a GP's visit anymore.
> Like others that develop the corona virus symptoms, one is told to self isolate for 7 days, if you then still feel ill, you can phone the NHS 111 helpline.
> ...


Sadly I think there will be a lot more cases like this as it’s been drummed into us not to bother gps or hospitals. There will be more that leave it too late.


----------



## PK99 (1 Apr 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> As I posted last week, this boy was the nephew of my colleague.
> He died last Tuesday, it took a week to do the corona virus tests post mortem.
> He wasn't well, but of course nobody has access to a GP's visit anymore.
> Like others that develop the corona virus symptoms, one is told to self isolate for 7 days, if you then still feel ill, you can phone the NHS 111 helpline.
> ...



That is not quite right in terms of 111 guidance. 

When I phoned 111 I was told to self isolate for 7 days but to call back in if symptoms, esp breathing, became significantly worse. The message I had was not a simple wait 7 days.


----------



## Blue Hills (1 Apr 2020)

Sorry to hear that pat, didn't realise the case had already been referred to. The family are clearly in deep grief, but i don't think folks should really be saying stuff like "it wouldn't happen in italy" and making an international incident of it. This virus is from hell and things are complicated.

I do know that many italians don't trust british docs even in the best of times. But they are all in the front line.
All the best.


----------



## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Wow, that was insensitive.


Less insensitive than only starting thinking about the risk to nurses once they start dying IMO. "Sure makes you think"!?!? Was anyone not already thinking about those bloody heroes who are literally risking their lives during this to save others? If not, you need to have a good look at yourself.


----------



## winjim (1 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Less insensitive than only starting thinking about the risk to nurses once they start dying IMO. "Sure makes you think"!?!? Was anyone not already thinking about those bloody heroes who are literally risking their lives during this to save others? If not, you need to have a good look at yourself.


The spouses of healthcare workers have not only just started to think about this, I assure you. However, when the first death of a laboratory worker is reported, I'm sure that my wife and I will be thinking about it a whole lot more.


----------



## newfhouse (1 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Less insensitive than only starting thinking about the risk to nurses once they start dying IMO. "Sure makes you think"!?!? Was anyone not already thinking about those bloody heroes who are literally risking their lives during this to save others? If not, you need to have a good look at yourself.


You’re missing the point by a country mile. I suggest you go back and read the post you were responding to.


----------



## mjr (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> You’re missing the point by a country mile. I suggest you go back and read the post you were responding to.


I did read the post, as written. I've reread it. It's a terse three liner. If there's another point hidden behind the offensive ending, it's lost.

I probably should have logged off instead of posting in exasperation but this had been fairly free of the sort of crass posts on other forums.

Night, all.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Thing is with the shortage of ventilators, it’s a shortage for this crisis, I’m sure having a stockpile of these things brings up other issues. Storing them correctly, making sure nothing on them has expired etc etc
> 
> but we should consider have more ITU beds per head like in Italy and Germany.
> 
> As the worry I have is the Italians are better provisioned than the NHS and it’s not exactly a party over there.


I think the worry for Johnson and co - is they must have a country doing worse - at the moment they do in Italy .....but for how much longer - we seem to jumped from 100 to close on 600 in a matter of days ....the next few weeks don't bear thinking about tbh....


----------



## Pat "5mph" (1 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> When I phoned 111 I was told to self isolate for 7 days but to call back in if symptoms, esp breathing, became significantly worse. The message I had was not a simple wait 7 days.


His family tells me that the boy was told by the NHS (can't confirm what department, though) he had a mere cold, to stay put at home.
Also, the NHS message has changed slightly from the beginning of March: before they were saying if you have mild symptoms self isolate for 7 days, now they tell you to phone them.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (1 Apr 2020)

NHS staff improvising respirators from snorkels....





Apologies for the incompetent pasting from instagram.


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Putting yourself at risk due to taking short cuts in the use of correct PPE is one thing. Willing to do your job out a sense of duty to others.
> Even though you have nothing better then a bit of cloth , a bit of plastic and pair of gloves if your lucky is quite another.
> 
> Health care staff don't need to die at work because of this.
> ...



We keep hearing more PPE is incoming but still it appears to be an issue, unfortunately most NHS workers will still put their health on the line, as that's how these people are, they want to help, they're programmed to help. 

I think the spike we are seeing is due to people not taking the stay at home request serious, and these same people now put health workers at risk.

Here people are just ignoring social distancing, and many of the roads seem to have become brands hatch, too many people at the moment seem to think rules don't apply to them, I just am shocked at some people's total disregard for their actions.


----------



## newfhouse (1 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> I did read the post, as written. I've reread it. It's a terse three liner. If there's another point hidden behind the offensive ending, it's lost.


I’m going to assume you’re not aware that Tom’s wife is a nurse, otherwise I have no idea what’s in your mind here.

My last comment on the matter in this thread too, as it’s too much of a diversion.


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think the worry for Johnson and co - is they must have a country doing worse - at the moment they do in Italy .....but for how much longer - we seem to jumped from 100 to close on 600 in a matter of days ....the next few weeks don't bear thinking about tbh....


I saw that body count and turned off the news, it's heart breaking.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (1 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> *I think you can only judge the timing and severity of lockdowns with hindsight.*
> ....
> What I'm trying to say is that lockdowns exact a high price from the people as they drag on, week after week. *Perhaps understandably governments are very reluctant to impose them until the last possible minute*



I have to say I disagree with your comments.

We were told to wash our hands and carry on our business as usual on 12th March. At that point, over 1000 had already perished in Italy, anybody with eyes would have seen their death toll was doubling every 3 days, even assuming one pays no attention at all to what happened in China weeks previously.

What was/is so exceptional about Britain?

Imposing lockdown at the last possible minute is so stupid that it is criminal - as we all know, the scale of the problem (ICU beds requirement e.g.) grows exponentially with time, that means for every 3 days we delayed firm action to curtail transmission initially, the total infected doubles in scale, quadrupling for 6 days, 8 folds for 9 days, 16 folds for 12 days delay etc.

While that may be news to the layman, should that be news to the advisors who are allegedly world experts on epidemics/pandemics?

Put it another way, if the CMO/CSA/Government were on the ball by merely 3 days earlier, the scale of our eventual COVID-19 challenges in the NHS would have been halved, or a quarter if 6 days.

If the problem had been addressed earlier, it could have been nipped in the bud - in Hongkong because of early actions, resources were never stretched, and they never needed a lockdown as comprehensive as the one here currently. Have delays exacted a low price, or a high price?

And have we forgotten that we were told the curve will be flattened, the objective was to sneak it under the NHS surge capacity, if we were to do what is necessary when the time comes, even delaying the peak to the Summer? How could that have possibly been achieved by waiting? Given the sh*tstorm for all to see in China and Italy, is it really just 20-20 hindsight, or they had a completely indefensible strategy somehow?

What is actually happening is a royal 24K f*ckup by the CMO/CSA/Government - we should not sugarcoat it - it does not deserve to be sugarcoated, and as if we didn't know already, there are serious consequences when untruths and lies are given a pass, whether because they are consistent with our prejudice, or because we simply can't be bothered to condemn them.


----------



## stephec (1 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> That is not quite right in terms of 111 guidance.
> 
> When I phoned 111 I was told to self isolate for 7 days but to call back in if symptoms, esp breathing, became significantly worse. The message I had was not a simple wait 7 days.


That was the advice that I got as well, on the 1st March when I had what was assumed was normal flu.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I think the spike we are seeing is due to people not taking the stay at home request serious, and these same people now put health workers at risk



Unlikely. I read the average time to death in China from presenting in hospital was 12-19 days, and it takes a week or more to get from infection to hospital so people dying now were very likely infected before the stay at home request.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I have to say I disagree with your comments.
> 
> We were told to wash our hands and carry on our business as usual on 12th March. At that point, over 1000 had already perished in Italy, anybody with eyes would have seen their death toll was doubling every 3 days, even assuming one pays no attention at all to what happened in China weeks previously.
> 
> ...


Indeed there were people on here number crunching - showing the consequences of not acting timely.

We've all laughed at Bungling Boris "ah but he s alright" - sadly he's dropped an enormous gaffe here - this one might not be so funny.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think the worry for Johnson and co - is they must have a country doing worse - at the moment they do in Italy .....but for how much longer - we seem to jumped from 100 to close on 600 in a matter of days ....the next few weeks don't bear thinking about tbh....



We have been, and continue to, track Italy almost exactly, perhaps two weeks or so behind. I despair at the thought, but we still look likely to have a similar overall outbreak to them. Perhaps our peak will come sooner, but there's precious little evidence for that I can see.


----------



## Tanis8472 (1 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Indeed there were people on here number crunching - showing the consequences of not acting timely.
> 
> We've all laughed at Bungling Boris "ah but he s alright" - sadly he's dropped an enormous gaffe here - this one might not be so funny.



Those daffodils have and are costing many people's lives


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

To me we need to make a distinction between NHS staff - and NHS resources - kudos to the former - and shame on a wealthy country for the latter.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but if they'd brought in the *current* rules/guidance before that one crazy sunny weekend, we would have had a lot less problems.
> Giving hints that things would soon become stricter was asking for trouble.



I don't think that weekend being sunny made a jot of difference. If it had been wet everyone would have been in the pub, a much better environment for spreading. 

The mathematics of the epidemic are remorseless. Cases double every 3-4 days. The peak deaths would be halved or more likely quartered by locking down a week earlier. 

Weather doesn't come into it. If anything it maybe even helped, as the crowds seem to be what prompted the crack down, which wad necessary regardless.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> We have been, and continue to, track Italy almost exactly, perhaps two weeks or so behind. I despair at the thought, but we still look likely to have a similar overall outbreak to them. Perhaps our peak will come sooner, but there's precious little evidence for that I can see.



I think there is a reasonable chance we will do worse than Italy - weren't we behind them in ITU beds per head count ? .....still we have those 30 ventilators coming next week...


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> We keep hearing more PPE is incoming but still it appears to be an issue, unfortunately most NHS workers will still put their health on the line, as that's how these people are, they want to help, they're programmed to help.
> 
> I think the spike we are seeing is due to people not taking the stay at home request serious, and these same people now put health workers at risk.
> 
> Here people are just ignoring social distancing, and many of the roads seem to have become brands hatch, too many people at the moment seem to think rules don't apply to them, I just am shocked at some people's total disregard for their actions.



Stuff has been coming though but it’s not enough or it’s very basic. A delivery came yesterday but tonight she told me they still don’t have enough and she won’t be able to wear it for everyone. Known covid case or not. I’m hoping it’s a slow night and she gets no calls. But even the odd one maybe all it takes. 
Oh and God help anyone who try’s to spit or cough at her they won’t just have the law to worry about. 

Your right about ignoring stuff I’m still seeing it at times. Just been out with dog and only got to hear in passing a guy on his phone telling someone how he’d been the last days. He clearly has been having some sort of fever. But happily still walking around. 
Even a graph at the briefing today showed car use is going up again. The longer it go’s on the Worse it will get.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (1 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I have to say I disagree with your comments.
> 
> We were told to wash our hands and carry on our business as usual on 12th March. At that point, over 1000 had already perished in Italy, anybody with eyes would have seen their death toll was doubling every 3 days, even assuming one pays no attention at all to what happened in China weeks previously.
> 
> ...


Indeed, playing the danger down and taking no significant action communicated to the public that there was no urgency. It has produced the same kind of lax attitude in the public - creating exactly the kind of problems at the front end - that acting late was meant to prevent at the back end. It has already killed people and done the opposite to flattening the curve.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> 1st Nurse death being reported
> Just seen off Mrs 73 on her night shift.
> Sure makes you think.



Best wishes Tom. Makes me think how lucky I am to be able to #staythefarkhome


----------



## Pat "5mph" (1 Apr 2020)

Numpty of the day:
waiting for my radiotherapy session, a guy comes out with a tube of cream, given to him by the nurse.
He proceeds spreading some on his finger, offering it to other patients.
'Tis the good stuff, this one, want some??
Nooooo!!!!


----------



## tom73 (1 Apr 2020)

Just worked though the last few posts and what can I say.
Thanks guys


----------



## Rusty Nails (1 Apr 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Numpty of the day:
> waiting for my radiotherapy session, a guy comes out with a tube of cream, given to him by the nurse.
> He proceeds spreading some on his finger, offering it to other patients.
> 'Tis the good stuff, this one, want some??
> Nooooo!!!!



Some people just don't know what nobs they appear.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Apr 2020)

Not peer reviewed but nevertheless of interest.

“We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients and modelled COVID-19 infectiousness profile from a separate sample of 77 infector-infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% of transmission could occur before first symptoms of the index. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial pre-symptomatic transmission.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036707v2


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (1 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Not peer reviewed but nevertheless of interest.
> 
> “We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients and modelled COVID-19 infectiousness profile from a separate sample of 77 infector-infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% of transmission could occur before first symptoms of the index. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial pre-symptomatic transmission.”
> 
> https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036707v2


So, if that's correct, when the time it comes to self isolate it's already too late. Like that gambling thing in the ads: ''when the fun stops, stop,'' which, as many gamblers will appreciate, should really be ''when the fun stops it's already too late.''


----------



## Unkraut (1 Apr 2020)

A virology professor on a discussion I watched last night has been doing research in the worst hit town here. He discovered the virus was not to be found on door knobs, kitchen utensils, the loo or transferred to pets. The only way you could ever get infected from a door would be someone infected coughed into their hand just before opening it, and you touched it a few minutes later and rubbed your eyes or something. You are also very unlikely to get infected in the supermarket if you keep your distance or have very brief moments of being near someone.

The study concluded that transmission was largely confined to human contact, and that for 15 or 20 minutes or more. Restaurant or pub gathering. I believe this particular town had a carnival just prior to the outbreak.

This in no way means the washing hand/distancing regime should not be kept up, but for me at least it made me feel less uncomfortable passing people or simply being in the supermarket, even though nearly everyone has got the social distancing thing sorted now.


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Stuff has been coming though but it’s not enough or it’s very basic. A delivery came yesterday but tonight she told me they still don’t have enough and she won’t be able to wear it for everyone. Known covid case or not. I’m hoping it’s a slow night and she gets no calls. But even the odd one maybe all it takes.
> Oh and God help anyone who try’s to spit or cough at her they won’t just have the law to worry about.
> 
> Your right about ignoring stuff I’m still seeing it at times. Just been out with dog and only got to hear in passing a guy on his phone telling someone how he’d been the last days. He clearly has been having some sort of fever. But happily still walking around.
> Even a graph at the briefing today showed car use is going up again. The longer it go’s on the Worse it will get.





kingrollo said:


> I think there is a reasonable chance we will do worse than Italy - weren't we behind them in ITU beds per head count ? .....still we have those 30 ventilators coming next week...



I think roughly, we have 1/4 of the beds Italy have, and about 1/2 the beds the Germans have.

Either way, we have less, and the northern Italian health care system is meant to be well provisioned and quite robust, so when you see the pain those guys are going through, you can magnify it for us.

But you still have idiots here jeering healthcare workers going to the store for their earlier time slot, stealing their transport etc things in this country need to change, and the self serving snowflakes we have need to wake up.

Does anyone have Elon Musks email so I can volunteer for a Mars mission.

Edit: I have told my wife not to use the NHS store times, and on leaving work in the car I have told her to lock the doors internally, maybe I’m paranoid, I would rather be that than regretful


----------



## Rocky (1 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just worked though the last few posts and what can I say.
> Thanks guys


I hope she stays safe. Please thank her for all she is doing.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (1 Apr 2020)

From the look of the Tory press' headines for tomorrow, Boris better phone in sick again.


----------



## newfhouse (1 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> From the look of the Tory press' headines for tomorrow, Boris better phone in sick again.


I expect Johnson will do a Trump and blame the ministers he appointed only a few weeks ago.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (1 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I have to say I disagree with your comments.
> 
> We were told to wash our hands and carry on our business as usual on 12th March. At that point, over 1000 had already perished in Italy, anybody with eyes would have seen their death toll was doubling every 3 days, even assuming one pays no attention at all to what happened in China weeks previously.
> 
> ...


The government has been reacting to events on a daily basis instead of looking at the experience of other countries and planning ahead. Putting the country on lockdown after the virus has spread has a limited effect. The government claimed it was going to flatten the curve but took no effective action to achieve this.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (1 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> I expect Johnson will do a Trump and blame the ministers he appointed only a few weeks ago.


He does have a track record of lying with impunity and refusing to take responsibility. But the Tory press turning on the (lack of) government will be new for them.


----------



## Wobblers (1 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> CV tracking app' - good idea or too Big Brother? I'm for it if it helps the fight:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52095331



It's likely to make things worse.

There are a number of problems. Not everyone has a smartphone - and not every smartphone will able to run the app (most likely including mine, as mine doesn't run standard Android). While the app itself might "respect privacy" (whatever that means) it will require Bluetooth. Google, for reasons known only to themselves, require location tracking to be turned on before you can use Bluetooth, so this means a large US company will be tracking your every movement whether you like it or not.

But the worst thing is down to our woefully inadequate testing regime. And yes, I'm afraid that it is woefully inadequate. We're only testing those who become sick enough to be admitted to hospital. 80% of those known to get CV-19 remain asymptomatic or have milder illness.This app will miss those people. Worse, it's believed that in China, only one in seven infections were detected by the authorities. If this is also the case for the UK, we're missing 97% of all infections. An app will therefore be hopelessly inaccurate in these circumstances and will only serve to produce a false sense of security. Accurate testing is needed before this sort of solution can make a difference.


----------



## Blue Hills (2 Apr 2020)

So only 2,000 nhs staff have been tested. Pathetic as the government testing figures are they claim don't they to have been doing way over this many a day? Who have they been testing?


----------



## IaninSheffield (2 Apr 2020)

Listening to BBC R4 earlier, science correspondent made the point that the decision was taken to do all the testing in-house by PHE, in an attempt to maintain quality control. This meant the additional capacity that the microbiological testing facilities available through university and commercial sectors was not brought to bear. Perhaps, with hindsight, this was a mis-step?


----------



## winjim (2 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I have to say I disagree with your comments.
> 
> We were told to wash our hands and carry on our business as usual on 12th March. At that point, over 1000 had already perished in Italy, anybody with eyes would have seen their death toll was doubling every 3 days, even assuming one pays no attention at all to what happened in China weeks previously.
> 
> ...


Just quote replying because it bears repeating.

Here's a view from the Graun

'Absolutely wrong': how UK's coronavirus test strategy unravelled

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...velled?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard


----------



## flake99please (2 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Some people just don't know what nobs they appear.



A female colleague told me of a customer who asked wether they would ‘mind if I breathe over you’.

We also had large families getting irate at being refused entrance. It beggars belief the stupidity of some folks.


----------



## numbnuts (2 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> I expect Johnson will do a Trump and blame the ministers he appointed only a few weeks ago.


Well why don't you get off your arse and do something as you seem to have all the answers


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

Swiss news: smartphone tracking app discussed - they say it'd need 60% of population to use it so we could surrender our privacy for nought, changes to refugee process, steep increase in USA unemployment, far right politicians exploiting the crisis to restart anti-EU campaigns, perfomances moving online, UEFA competitions suspended.


----------



## winjim (2 Apr 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Well why don't you get off your arse and do something as you seem to have all the answers


A fair few of us tried to do something back in December.


----------



## PK99 (2 Apr 2020)

flake99please said:


> A female colleague told me of a customer who asked wether they would ‘mind if I breathe over you’.
> 
> We also had large families getting irate at being refused entrance. It beggars belief the stupidity of some folks.



Sadly it is no surprise at all.


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Swiss news: smartphone tracking app discussed - they say it'd need 60% of population to use it so we could surrender our privacy for nought, changes to refugee process, steep increase in USA unemployment, far right politicians exploiting the crisis to restart anti-EU campaigns, perfomances moving online, UEFA competitions suspended.


Fat right politicians like Varoufakis, Renzi or Sanchez??? It is the EC and eurogroup politics and policies that are making people open their eyes on plenty of things


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Fat right politicians like Varoufakis, Renzi or Sanchez??? It is the EC and eurogroup politics and policies that are making people open their eyes on plenty of things


Salvini was mentioned. I forget who else.

IMO the EU is doing much better than the UK (triumphantly announcing 30 ventilators!) or US (state and federal government engaged in bidding wars).


----------



## newfhouse (2 Apr 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Well why don't you get off your arse and do something as you seem to have all the answers


Help me out here, numbnuts. Like the vast majority of the population I’m neither a government minister nor a director of health services. I’m just an ordinary public servant doing his best to carry on progressing unrelated but valuable work while self isolating with, fortunately, low level symptoms.

I’m still able to read widely and hence develop opinions about the competence of those in power, and thus far I think they are failing us all in important ways. I believe Johnson is being shielded from criticism to an extent, and that he will throw colleagues under a big red lie-covered bus rather than take full responsibility for unnecessary deaths. Time will tell.

If I do manage to get off my arse, what exactly would you have me do?


----------



## lazybloke (2 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Swiss news: *smartphone tracking app *discussed - they say it'd need 60% of population to use it so we could *surrender our privacy for nought*, changes to refugee process, steep increase in USA unemployment, far right politicians exploiting the crisis to restart anti-EU campaigns, perfomances moving online, UEFA competitions suspended.


Curious to know why a 'webmaster for hire' is so anti-technology.
Temporarily sharing _selected _data is a long way from "surrendering privacy".


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

I have no doubt he was. What I am saying recent (lack of) actions from bodies supposed to ease off economic pressures is not making EU more popular in plenty of Europe. I think within a year Itaxit on cards


----------



## newfhouse (2 Apr 2020)

lazybloke said:


> Curious to know why a 'webmaster for hire' is so anti-technology.
> Temporarily sharing _selected _data is a long way from "surrendering privacy".


Perhaps he understands the implications better than the average Joe. Who selects the data being shared?


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

lazybloke said:


> Curious to know why a 'webmaster for hire' is so anti-technology.
> Temporarily sharing _selected _data is a long way from "surrendering privacy".


I'm not anti-technology, obviously. I'm just realistic that the temptation to overreach for profit (if commercial) or snooping (if gov't) will probably prove too strong, or there will be a bug like Zoom's that results in unwanted data-sharing without consent. I would also bet that any gov't-backed app won't be verifiable by users because most aren't.

Call it bitter experience if you like. In the past, I've uncovered social enterprises publishing apps with "phone home" leaks and that was good people with strong ethical stances, so what chance this gov't won't do similar things by error or design?


----------



## Blue Hills (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Fat right politicians like Varoufakis, Renzi or Sanchez??? It is the EC and eurogroup politics and policies that are making people open their eyes on plenty of things


Renzi?


----------



## kingrollo (2 Apr 2020)

I don't believe it - Johnson has just said again

"Were ramping up the testing in the coming weeks"

....if you say something often enough people will believe it ....


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't believe it - Johnson has just said again
> 
> "Were ramping up the testing in the coming weeks"
> 
> ....if you say something often enough people will believe it ....



It needs ramping now, not in the coming weeks or it won’t be able to catch up.


----------



## nickyboy (2 Apr 2020)

There seems to be a bit on social media this morning that roads are busier than past few days. The inference being that people are starting to disregard the lockdown. It's very difficult to make this assessment on an individual basis

Here is the Tom Tom real time analysis of London traffic. No evidence of any increase this morning


----------



## kingrollo (2 Apr 2020)

At this rate the vaccine will be here before the test........although probably not in the UK.


----------



## IaninSheffield (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Fat right politicians like Varoufakis...


Yanis Varoufakis? Willing to be corrected here, but isn't he fairly well left of centre?


----------



## kingrollo (2 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> There seems to be a bit on social media this morning that roads are busier than past few days. The inference being that people are starting to disregard the lockdown. It's very difficult to make this assessment on an individual basis
> 
> Here is the Tom Tom real time analysis of London traffic. No evidence of any increase this morning
> 
> View attachment 512058


Anicdotal of course - but I live near a main road - and yesterday and today I heard the hum of traffic for the first time since the lockdown.

A lot of companies are saying "we are involved in making the ventilators"


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> Yanis Varoufakis? Willing to be corrected here, but isn't he fairly well left of centre?


Exactly.
What is happening is causing pro EU people to reassess their positions


----------



## MrGrumpy (2 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> There seems to be a bit on social media this morning that roads are busier than past few days. The inference being that people are starting to disregard the lockdown. It's very difficult to make this assessment on an individual basis
> 
> Here is the Tom Tom real time analysis of London traffic. No evidence of any increase this morning
> 
> View attachment 512058



All very subjective but I thought the M8 up here was a bit busier this morning early doors than it had been all week ? A few others at work also commentated as well. Possibly some people returning to work due to self isolation or I just happened to time my commute earlier than I had previously ?


----------



## Rusty Nails (2 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> It needs ramping now, not in the coming weeks or it won’t be able to catch up.



Today's briefing will say that they are ramping up the ramping up, and that they have a target date for being fully ramped up, which in no way implies that their previous policy of ramping up had not been ramped up enough.


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Exactly.
> What is happening is causing pro EU people to reassess their positions


In your dreams, perhaps. Salvini has been Eurosceptic for ages and Varoufakis has been criticising the EU for over a decade. They are not pro EU people reassessing. The only reassessment on show today is Salvini's party reckoning they can exploit coronavirus to win votes, which is astonishing because they were in government until last year so should share responsibility for Italy's ill-preparedness.


----------



## tom73 (2 Apr 2020)

I see the PM says testing will "unlock the puzzle"
Right own up who's pinched the key?


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

I never said Salvini was pro Eu. Read it.
Varoufakis has been criticising EU institutions for years, yes, while always being pro EU.


----------



## MarkF (2 Apr 2020)

Quietest day ever, been here since 6am & only 1 person has been moved to a "virus" ward.

The 3 testing pods that were well used initially, but not for the last 10 days AFAIK, have been removed on flat bed trucks today?

Staff have been given so much conflicting information that nobody has a clue what they are supposed to be wearing & when.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (2 Apr 2020)

*Mod note:*

@numbnuts

Did you accidentally miss a smiley off of #5927 in response to @newfhouse 's post?

If 'yes' I'll add one and the post can stand as it is then in good humour (much needed in these sorry times) otherwise I'll have to delete it as a personal attack, and subsequent quotes thereof.

I can add a range of smileys from this  to this  to this  depending on intended humour quotient.

From moi - with one of these;


----------



## MarkF (2 Apr 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52130552


----------



## numbnuts (2 Apr 2020)

OK


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> I never said Salvini was pro Eu. Read it.


But that's who was in the news report we were discussing?



Eziemnaik said:


> Varoufakis has been criticising EU institutions for years, yes, while always being pro EU.


I don't agree with that description. Are you one of those people who believes everyone who isn't anti-EU is pro-EU?


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

Plenty of negative street level sentiment in Italy regarding recent EU responses to the crisis - heard from family so it may not mean much to you
But also
https://www.cer.eu/insights/trouble-eu-brewing-coronavirus-hit-italy


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52130552


That's just a link to a rolling blog. Was there a particular item on it which attracted your attention?


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> But that's who was in the news report we were discussing?
> 
> 
> I don't agree with that description. Are you one of those people who believes everyone who isn't anti-EU is pro-EU?


And I agree to disagree.
Read his books.
Google Varoufakis EU stance.


----------



## MarkF (2 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> That's just a link to a rolling blog. Was there a particular item on it which attracted your attention?



I'm sorry.

How to understand the death toll (ish).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654


----------



## SpokeyDokey (2 Apr 2020)

numbnuts said:


> OK



Good man! I'll sort it now. 

*Edit:* cool, you did it yourself. Can't beat a bit of self-moderation. 

Right, now back on track...


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Plenty of negative street level sentiment in Italy regarding recent EU responses to the crisis - heard from family so it may not mean much to you


Oh I'm sure that's true, else there wouldn't be anything for the likes of Salvini to try to exploit. It doesn't make the sentiment or accusations true, though.



Eziemnaik said:


> But also
> https://www.cer.eu/insights/trouble-eu-brewing-coronavirus-hit-italy


CER had their trans-atlantic colours nailed to the mast long ago, so it's little surprise they're helping stir.



Eziemnaik said:


> And I agree to disagree.
> Read his books.
> Google Varoufakis EU stance.


I've read his books (it's cheeky to imply I haven't) and I use other search engines than Google.

Masterful avoidance of the question, BTW!


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

So in your opinion Italian sentiment regarding lost economic opportunities, loss of communities, lack of solidarity is not based whatsoever in what has been happening in reality?


----------



## Pale Rider (2 Apr 2020)

News reports this morning suggest face masks might be a good idea after all.

Coughs and sneezes spread diseases, innovatory thinking - in 1946.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGop2QiSWLU


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Apr 2020)

Interesting discussion on masks

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...us-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/


----------



## Rocky (2 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> News reports this morning suggest face masks might be a good idea after all.
> 
> Coughs and sneezes spread diseases, innovatory thinking - in 1946.
> 
> ...



I think the argument is that, for the public, a face mask probably won’t stop you getting the virus, however if you have Covid, it will stop you spreading it.


----------



## cookiemonster (2 Apr 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-...e-dies-after-contracting-coronavirus-son-says


----------



## fossyant (2 Apr 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-...e-dies-after-contracting-coronavirus-son-says


----------



## cookiemonster (2 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think the argument is that, for the public, a face mask probably won’t stop you getting the virus, however if you have Covid, it will stop you spreading it.



Here we have what's called 'Universal Masking,' and it has worked to help slow the spread.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (2 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> There seems to be a bit on social media this morning that roads are busier than past few days. The inference being that people are starting to disregard the lockdown. It's very difficult to make this assessment on an individual basis
> 
> Here is the Tom Tom real time analysis of London traffic. No evidence of any increase this morning
> 
> View attachment 512058


Sunday will be interesting as it is forecast to be sunny. All the visitor attractions and NT car parks are closed so will people try to park at the side of the road for Exercise'?


----------



## winjim (2 Apr 2020)

At last, a five point plan...
...to ramp up testing.


----------



## Rocky (2 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> At last, a five point plan...
> ...to ramp up testing.
> 
> View attachment 512090


Jeeze......why doesn't he take a leaf from Nike's book........JUST F'ING DO IT


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> At last, a five point plan...
> ...to ramp up testing.
> 
> View attachment 512090



We need action the plan should have been in place in January.


----------



## cookiemonster (2 Apr 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> Yanis Varoufakis? Willing to be corrected here, but isn't he fairly well left of centre?



You can him a few things but far right isn’t one of those things.


----------



## winjim (2 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> We need action the plan should have been in place in January.


The basic plan should already have been in existence in a big A4 ringbinder marked 'In case of pandemic' on the shelves of the DoH.


----------



## nickyboy (2 Apr 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Sunday will be interesting as it is forecast to be sunny. All the visitor attractions and NT car parks are closed so will people try to park at the side of the road for Exercise'?



A warm Spring Sunday. I suspect if there is fairly widespread disregard for the essential journeys etc instruction we will see a tightening of the lockdown early next week. It doesn't feel like there is widespread support for it now but that may change after the weekend (as it did a couple of weeks ago)


----------



## tom73 (2 Apr 2020)

The AA now offering free breakdown cover for NHS staff to and from work. 
Just phone dedicated NHS number 0800 072 5064 and show ID once they arrive. 
No need to signup or be a member.


----------



## Rusty Nails (2 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> The basic plan should already have been in existence in a big A4 ringbinder marked 'In case of pandemic' on the shelves of the DoH.



I would have thought that this should be obvious to any government, including the ramifications of isolation and potential equipment/drug/PPE shortages. The modelling of how to deal with a pandemic should have included the things that could go wrong.


----------



## PK99 (2 Apr 2020)

Viking said:


> but it wouldn’t have been opened if Richard Horton’s advice had been followed
> 
> From his twitter account of 24 January
> 
> ...



and morally reprehensible on his part.

It is worth noting that despite his role at the Lancet he has very limited medical experience. He practiced from 1986 to 1990, since when he has worked in medical publishing and politics. Career highlight have been supporting and defending Richard Wakefield and Sir Roy Meadow.


----------



## matticus (2 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> "The basic plan should already have been in existence in a big A4 ringbinder marked 'In case of pandemic' on the shelves of the DoH. "​
> I would have thought that this should be obvious to any government, including the ramifications of isolation and potential equipment/drug/PPE shortages. The modelling of how to deal with a pandemic should have included the things that could go wrong.


You're right: but did you check your party's election manifesto for this before voting? Did anyone?? Ever?


----------



## Blue Hills (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> I never said Salvini was pro Eu. Read it.
> Varoufakis has been criticising EU institutions for years, yes, while always being pro EU.


Am still waiting for a reply to my question about renzi.
Until i get a reply i will rather doubt your political insights.


winjim said:


> At last, a five point plan...
> ...to ramp up testing.
> 
> View attachment 512090


Are you sure it's not a five year plan?


----------



## kingrollo (2 Apr 2020)

Remind me - whose decision was it to stop testing in the first place ?


----------



## Rusty Nails (2 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> You're right: but did you check your party's election manifesto for this before voting? Did anyone?? Ever?



It should be a basic and essential strategy that is carried out by the civil service in collaboration with scientific experts, and runs across governments, and not a party political manifesto item.

I didn't check that any of them would do the basics. The manifesto would need to be 500 pages long to cover all those.


----------



## kingrollo (2 Apr 2020)

I think companies need to be certified to work on ventilators - I know a lot of people who have been called into work and the "its to work on the ventilators" - seems highly dubious to me.


----------



## kingrollo (2 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> At last, a five point plan...
> ...to ramp up testing.
> 
> View attachment 512090



I think a plan consisting of 5 tests would be a start.


----------



## Blue Hills (2 Apr 2020)

Just heard that boris may not after all be putting in an appearance tomorrow as suppose dly still has symptoms. Journos need to ask what symptoms. I thought his symptoms were mild. Can't see how a cough and loss of taste can inhibit him facing the public and press. Can do it remotely of course. And after his baby kissing election drive he has been pretty remote in any case.


----------



## kingrollo (2 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Jeeze......why doesn't he take a leaf from Nike's book........JUST F'ING DO IT



Thats a photoshop job is ever there was one !!!!!!!


----------



## Rezillo (2 Apr 2020)

Viking said:


> but it wouldn’t have been opened if Richard Horton’s advice had been followed
> 
> From his twitter account of 24 January
> 
> He has now been down the road to Damascus and it is all “we should have spotted this earlier” stuff. 20-20 hindsight.



I have to agree. 

However, the Lancet website has been a goldmine of first-hand reports and stats from China and elsewhere. These directly resulted in us buying a freezer and stocking it in mid February on a just in case basis. I wouldn't claim any great prescience - it was a risk-free precaution because we would use it regardless of what happened.


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think companies need to be certified to work on ventilators - I know a lot of people who have been called into work and the "its to work on the ventilators" - seems highly dubious to me.


It depends what part. The certificates needed to manufacture subassemblies like hygienic cases or reliable power supplies are widely held. That's not working directly on the ventilator mechanism but you still need them for most approved current ventilators.


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

Belgian (RTBF) news: surprisingly similar to here with the latest death toll (that anyone interested can look up) but also concerns about care home outbreaks, problems accessing mortgage repayment holidays (pictured) and business loans with the banks being criticised for rejections, and the death of a baby in the USA (pictured). I didn't see the full bulletin due to a storm disrupting reception.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Jeeze......why doesn't he take a leaf from Nike's book........JUST F'ING DO IT



Get CoronaVirus done.


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Am still waiting for a reply to my question about renzi.
> Until i get a reply i will rather doubt your political insights.
> 
> Are you sure it's not a five year plan?


Renzi, despite being as pro EU as they come from Italy had no reserves criticising initial response of ECB ( now somewhat corrected through PEPP) and EC (which is only now allowing for the suspension of fiscal rules)
Therefore my comment stands, not only far right anti EU politicans are not very happy with the response of the union


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

Also, in case anybody is wondering why some countries are doing better





Also deaths in UK in week to 20th of March compared to the average from last 5 yr
10645 vs 10573
Total increase of 72


----------



## nickyboy (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Also, in case anybody is wondering why some countries are doing better
> View attachment 512150



The life giving properties of a decent bubble tea (not the pale imitation that was available in Manchester until recently

Actually there was an analysis on twitter of that graph and you can genuinely group countries doing well (China, SK, Singapore , Japan) and those not doing well on whether they have a blanket TB immunisation policy. Whether that is just a weird coincidence or not isn't know, there is much we still need to learn


----------



## vickster (2 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> The life giving properties of a decent bubble tea (not the pale imitation that was available in Manchester until recently
> 
> Actually there was an analysis on twitter of that graph and you can genuinely group countries doing well (China, SK, Singapore , Japan) and those not doing well on whether they have a blanket TB immunisation policy. Whether that is just a weird coincidence or not isn't know, there is much we still need to learn


The lunchtime news reported that there could be an outbreak coming in Tokyo - parks now closed, main areas becoming deserted after being packed last weekend  Although public transport still busy according to the report


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> The life giving properties of a decent bubble tea (not the pale imitation that was available in Manchester until recently
> 
> Actually there was an analysis on twitter of that graph and you can genuinely group countries doing well (China, SK, Singapore , Japan) and those not doing well on whether they have a blanket TB immunisation policy. Whether that is just a weird coincidence or not isn't know, there is much we still need to learn


You can add Eastern Europe to this


----------



## winjim (2 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> You're right: but did you check your party's election manifesto for this before voting? Did anyone?? Ever?


I made an assessment of the character of the party leaders and therefore an estimation of their aptitude in dealing with a crisis of this scale, and also of their party's history and attitude regarding the NHS. 

But @Rusty Nails is right, this should be a thing that the civil service have in hand. I've said it before, but every NHS trust in the country will have a major incident plan which, as soon as such an incident is declared, swings into action with (hopefully) everybody knowing their roles and responsibilities, what to do, who to report to, which services to suspend, etc etc. We should have had that on a nationwide level.


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Renzi, despite being as pro EU as they come from Italy had no reserves criticising initial response of ECB ( now somewhat corrected through PEPP) and EC (which is only now allowing for the suspension of fiscal rules)
> Therefore my comment stands, not only far right anti EU politicans are not very happy with the response of the union


And is Renzi attempting to use that criticism to exploit coronavirus to win votes for Italia Viva, like Salvini is for Lega Nord?



Eziemnaik said:


> Also, in case anybody is wondering why some countries are doing better
> View attachment 512150


Bubble tea? Seriously? 



> Also deaths in UK in week to 20th of March compared to the average from last 5 yr
> 10645 vs 10573
> Total increase of 72


The week to 20th March? So that was when there had been 177 coronavirus deaths but what's the similar analysis for this week say now there's been more than 2300 coronavirus deaths?


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

He is a politican
Do you think he is using it to loose votes?


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> [...] you can genuinely group countries doing well (China, SK, Singapore , Japan) and those not doing well on whether they have a blanket TB immunisation policy. Whether that is just a weird coincidence or not isn't know, there is much we still need to learn


I linked some findings about BCG and c19 earlier in this thread: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...e-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> And is Renzi attempting to use that criticism to exploit coronavirus to win votes for Italia Viva, like Salvini is for Lega Nord?
> 
> 
> Bubble tea? Seriously?
> ...


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
Unfortunately ONS is not as fast as CC forum so we will have to wait untill fresh data available


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> He is a politican
> Do you think he is using it to loose votes?


I think he was probably using it to push the EU to greater action. Where's the vote-winning propaganda element? Can you post a link to any credible report of an Italia Viva politician pulling a stunt like the reported dismantling of an EU flag which provoked your earlier comment?


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

What I have been saying.
Even pro EU politicians are not happy with direction taken by EU institutions. That they are doing this because they belive in the European project all the better as far as I am concerned


----------



## Smokin Joe (2 Apr 2020)

Good article on the BBC website -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> Good article on the BBC website -
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654


Wait for the "but it is not the flu" crowd


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> I linked some findings about BCG and c19 earlier in this thread: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...e-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus



Interesting as BCG was routine in UK schools between 1953 and 2005. So oldest would now be 67.


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> Good article on the BBC website -
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654


"How to understand the death toll" means that's a TMN to @MarkF if I remember this morning correctly! https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5937599


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Interesting as BCG was routine in UK schools between 1953 and 2005. So oldest would now be 67.


It's only thought to protect for a year or so, so protection from 60+ years ago would be surprising - but any extra immunity helps cut the spread rate.


----------



## Mo1959 (2 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Interesting as BCG was routine in UK schools between 1953 and 2005. So oldest would now be 67.


I remember getting it in 2nd year.


----------



## Blue Hills (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Renzi, despite being as pro EU as they come from Italy had no reserves criticising initial response of ECB ( now somewhat corrected through PEPP) and EC (which is only now allowing for the suspension of fiscal rules)
> Therefore my comment stands, not only far right anti EU politicans are not very happy with the response of the union


ah, I thought you described him as far right.


----------



## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

I guess we will really relive 1930s this time...
Close to a million people on Universal credit in UK
Same amount in Spain on "paro"
As much as I think our current economic model is not sustainable this is not going to make it better


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> It's only thought to protect for a year or so, so protection from 60+ years ago would be surprising - but any extra immunity helps cut the spread rate.



It says up to 20 years in the wiki page. I wouldn't have thought they’d be a school programme at secondary school if it only lasted a year.


----------



## winjim (2 Apr 2020)

I just watched about two minutes of Hat Mancock doing the daily briefing and I can't stand it any more. He keeps referring to workers in health and social care as 'colleagues'. No Hancock, I am not your colleague.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (2 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> I just watched about two minutes of Hat Mancock doing the daily briefing and I can't stand it any more. He keeps referring to workers in health and social care as 'colleagues'. No Hancock, I am not your colleague.


Stay at home. Protect the NHS. Sack Hancock.


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> It says up to 20 years in the wiki page. I wouldn't have thought they’d be a school programme at secondary school if it only lasted a year.


What wiki page? And I'm talking about it protecting from coronavirus for about a year or so - are you?


----------



## winjim (2 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Stay at home. Protect the NHS. Sack Hancock.


I would suggest a government of national unity, but with two of the other main parties being leaderless right now, I'm not sure how that'd work.


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

More criticism of the dumb idea of a smartphone app and tough questions for its advocates: https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2020/...tion-surveillance-would-help-contain-covid-19


----------



## Mo1959 (2 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> I just watched about two minutes of Hat Mancock doing the daily briefing and I can't stand it any more. He keeps referring to workers in health and social care as 'colleagues'. No Hancock, I am not your colleague.


He still seems reluctant to test nhs staff instead concentrating on patients. Would it not be better to treat patients as if they’ve got it, and test the staff so that they know they are safe to keep working?


----------



## Unkraut (2 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> I would suggest a government of national unity, but with two of the other main parties being leaderless right now, I'm not sure how that'd work.


You could argue that _three_ of the main parties are leaderless ...

Did I read you correctly saying the govt was trying to reduce lab capacity in the NHS up thread (or somewhere else)? How does that square with 40 new hospitals, I wonder.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (2 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Did I read you correctly saying the govt was trying to reduce lab capacity in the NHS up thread (or somewhere else)? How does that square with 40 new hospitals, I wonder.


Sceptics would never have thought the government would get started so quickly on the hospital building programme ....
Excel, NEC, Harrogate Conference, that's 3 hospitals already


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> What wiki page? And I'm talking about it protecting from coronavirus for about a year or so - are you?



BCG the one year for Corona is a theory is it not?


----------



## kingrollo (2 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> I made an assessment of the character of the party leaders and therefore an estimation of their aptitude in dealing with a crisis of this scale, and also of their party's history and attitude regarding the NHS.
> 
> But @Rusty Nails is right, this should be a thing that the civil service have in hand. I've said it before, but every NHS trust in the country will have a major incident plan which, as soon as such an incident is declared, swings into action with (hopefully) everybody knowing their roles and responsibilities, what to do, who to report to, which services to suspend, etc etc. We should have had that on a nationwide level.



Pretty much sure they do. The problem isn't the plan its in the execution.


----------



## Johnno260 (2 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> He still seems reluctant to test nhs staff instead concentrating on patients. Would it not be better to treat patients as if they’ve got it, and test the staff so that they know they are safe to keep working?



I would say testing staff is a must, you know who can/can't work, you can also send sick staff home to recover.


----------



## kingrollo (2 Apr 2020)

100,000 tests a day - by the end of April.
A couple of problems here:-

1.Virtually every promise they have made on testing - they have broken

2.Is the end of April not going to be a tad late in the day.?


----------



## Pale Rider (2 Apr 2020)

Better performance than his last effort from Hancock.


----------



## Salty seadog (2 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Better performance than his last effort from Hancock.



Gash.


----------



## Salty seadog (2 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> 100,000 tests a day - by the end of April.
> A couple of problems here:-
> 
> 1.Virtually every promise they have made on testing - they have broken
> ...



Don't forget the lies.

Fudging the testing figures so they present a wholly dismal picture instead of the disastrously dismal truth.

Lying about missing an email from the EU. As if that's all they did, send an email. This lie was after the PM's official spokesman confirmed they would not be taking part in a joint EU purchase plan for equipment because we are not in the EU and would go our own way.

Domestic manufacturers of ventilators selling their stock overseas as the government declined their offer of supply.

The same with the supply of necessary chemical components (reagents) for testing.

Flowery words and constant promises of jam tomorrow/next week /next month. All the while sitting on their hands. 

This government is a disgrace.

I feel it is more than a little to do with the centuries old ingrained class system we have.
Why help the proles.?


----------



## Pale Rider (2 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Better performance than his last effort from Hancock.



Blimey, Hancock's on Question Time now.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (2 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Blimey, Hancock's on Question Time now.



Hancock’s Half Hour?


----------



## newfhouse (2 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Blimey, Hancock's on Question Time now.


I can’t bear to watch, so save me the pain. Has he given any straight answers?


----------



## Pale Rider (2 Apr 2020)

Another QT guest, the Archbishop of York, asked Hancock why he hadn't done what Kitchener did and get an army logistics officer to get the job done.

"We have," said Hancock. "Brigadier Phil Prosser."

Good answer, the guy's on a roll.

Prosser is quoted in this story which did the rounds a few days ago.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/uknews/11241887/british-soldiers-join-coronavirus-fight/


----------



## Salty seadog (2 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Another QT guest, the Archbishop of York, asked Hancock why he hadn't done what Kitchener did and get an army logistics officer to get the job done.
> 
> "We have," said Hancock. "Brigadier Phil Prosser."
> 
> ...



He's not on Roll, he knows the name of a guy in the top team. Well done Matt have a lollipop.

The archbishop is on the better roll when he advised Hancock to

'*Promise less, deliver more'*.

Now that's a slogan. 

Just a shame this it at fundamental odds with Tory behaviour.


----------



## Adam4868 (2 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Another QT guest, the Archbishop of York, asked Hancock why he hadn't done what Kitchener did and get an army logistics officer to get the job done.
> 
> "We have," said Hancock. "Brigadier Phil Prosser."
> 
> ...


I'd of prefered Francoise who I'm sure is somewhere on a beach fighting this virus single-handed.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (2 Apr 2020)

Matt Hancock talks Hot Mancack


----------



## newfhouse (2 Apr 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> I'd of prefered Francoise who I'm sure is somewhere on a beach fighting this virus single-handed.


Where’s Grayling in our hour of need?


----------



## Mugshot (2 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Where’s Grayling in our hour of need?


We haven't seen much of the Home Secretary, shouldn't she be front and centre in all of this?


----------



## winjim (2 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> You could argue that _three_ of the main parties are leaderless ...
> 
> Did I read you correctly saying the govt was trying to reduce lab capacity in the NHS up thread (or somewhere else)? How does that square with 40 new hospitals, I wonder.


It's part of the NHS ICS (integrated care systems) initiative. I think it's something they're doing across the board but obviously I only have experience of it from a pathology point of view. Basically they've divided the country up into regions, or 'networks', and adopting a 'hub and spoke' model, with one main 'hub' lab per region doing the bulk of the work, but each hospital maintaining a downsized 'spoke' lab dealing with acute and urgent samples. There's also planned changes to management and staffing structures, which is where I think they're planning to make most of the cost savings.

It's all based on the Carter report, Lord Carter being amongst other things, chair of the board of HSL, provider of private pathology services to the NHS...

https://improvement.nhs.uk/resources/pathology-networks/


----------



## winjim (2 Apr 2020)

Viking said:


> but it wouldn’t have been opened if Richard Horton’s advice had been followed
> 
> From his twitter account of 24 January
> 
> ...


I have no particular opinion regarding Richard Horton. Coronavirus was declared an international emergency on 30 January and a pandemic on 11 March, by the WHO. That should have been enough to activate any plan that we had.


----------



## tom73 (2 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> It's part of the NHS ICS (integrated care systems) initiative. I think it's something they're doing across the board but obviously I only have experience of it from a pathology point of view. Basically they've divided the country up into regions, or 'networks', and adopting a 'hub and spoke' model, with one main 'hub' lab per region doing the bulk of the work, but each hospital maintaining a downsized 'spoke' lab dealing with acute and urgent samples. There's also planned changes to management and staffing structures, which is where I think they're planning to make most of the cost savings.
> 
> It's all based on the Carter report, Lord Carter being amongst other things, chair of the board of HSL, provider of private pathology services to the NHS...
> 
> https://improvement.nhs.uk/resources/pathology-networks/



The government track record on labs is not great. They tried messing about with the National Forensic laboratory service. Hand the whole lot over to the private sector. A right mess lack of capacity meant sample fridges in custody over flowing. Cases backed up. Then you had cases over turned as samples got contaminated in the labs.
Result the government on the QT had to at great cost put the whole thing back together again.


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Blimey, Hancock's on Question Time now.


At 8pm. Why are horror shows now allowed on before 9?


----------



## Yellow Fang (2 Apr 2020)

This disease is puzzling. 

Why did that Oxford University report say we would get herd immunity? They seemed to think the virus had been around for months and lots of people had already had it, and that the unfortunate deaths were a tiny minority. It does not seem like that to me, but Sweden are still betting on the herd immunity theory. Why if a large part of the population had been infected for weeks already would we get this big ramp up of hospital cases in the last couple of weeks? 

I read somewhere that the tests did not work until the suffers started showing symptoms, but that asymptomatic carriers could still spread the disease - how? If asymptomatic carriers are not coughing, how are they spreading the disease? 

I read that some of the doctors who have died probably died because they were initially infected with a high dose of the virus. So does that mean a small dose could act as a vaccine?


----------



## winjim (2 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> The government track record on labs is not great. They tried messing about with the National Forensic laboratory service. Hand the whole lot over to the private sector. A right mess lack of capacity meant sample fridges in custody over flowing. Cases backed up. Then you had cases over turned as samples got contaminated in the labs.
> Result the government on the QT had to at great cost put the whole thing back together again.


Yes, I remember that. We went to have a look at their old kit, they had it stored in a warehouse just outside Barnsley. A load of it ended up going to Egypt IIRC. In terms of hospital pathology though, that's pretty easy to privatise, a fair few big hospitals are operating privatised labs. Not sure how they're going to fit in with the ICS scheme, I guess if the privatisation has already provided the cost saving then they might be exempt.


----------



## Wobblers (2 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Another QT guest, the Archbishop of York, asked Hancock why he hadn't done what Kitchener did and get an army logistics officer to get the job done.
> 
> "We have," said Hancock. "Brigadier Phil Prosser."
> 
> ...



"On a roll"?

We're supposed to be doing 25,000 tests per day now - the reality is we've scarcely broached the 10,000 per day promised two weeks ago.The 25,000 tests per day are now promised by the end of the month (a date that keeps slipping back - not a good sign).

If this is a roll, it's the sort you see from a parked car with a broken hand brake on a steep hill....


----------



## Unkraut (3 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> It's part of the NHS ICS (integrated care systems) initiative. ...


Thanks for the info and link. I don't think anyone would ever be against savings achieved by slimming down management (not that this isn't essential) but I would hope after the current crisis is over they would put the money saved into more capacity rather than leaving it as it is.


----------



## lazybloke (3 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Perhaps he understands the implications better than the average Joe. Who selects the data being shared?


My point was puzzlement that a 'web master' would seemingly decry an internet technology. Without any context it seemed a bit Luddite, or Gerald Ratner-esque.

I do agree with being very cautious before surrendering data-privacy; most of my career has been cyber security and penetration testing, so I'm well aware that v bad things happen when sensitive data falls into the wrong hands.

However, the right data in the right hands can bring benefits both to the individual and the wider community.


----------



## lazybloke (3 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> I'm not anti-technology, obviously. I'm just realistic that the temptation to overreach for profit (if commercial) or snooping (if gov't) will probably prove too strong, or there will be a bug like Zoom's that results in unwanted data-sharing without consent. I would also bet that any gov't-backed app won't be verifiable by users because most aren't.
> 
> Call it bitter experience if you like. In the past, I've uncovered social enterprises publishing apps with "phone home" leaks and that was good people with strong ethical stances, so what chance this gov't won't do similar things by error or design?


Am well aware of the issues you mention.

Still puzzled though. You're saying the temptation to misuse data will "prove too strong". Hopefully you can avoid that temptation in your work.
Or "there will be a bug" that "results in unwanted data-sharing without consent".
It all sounds like a strong denenoncement of technology to me!


If you were warning about a specific app, then more explanation would be appreciated. There's not much clarity in a staccato list of headlines.
Or provide a link?
Edit: Just seen a link about apps/data in your *later *post. Do you drive a Delorean?


----------



## Salty seadog (3 Apr 2020)

Does anyone know what Matt Hancock said in response to the question at last night's briefing when he was asked under what criteria he was tested for the virus. The coverage faded out then for the six o' clock news.


----------



## Adam4868 (3 Apr 2020)

Incompetence doesn't even come close.
https://www.irishpost.com/comment/virus-crisis-reveals-prime-ministers-absolute-incompetence-182331


----------



## Rocky (3 Apr 2020)

Viking said:


> which in itself is fine but referring to a Guardian article which in turn uses the views of the very questionable Richard Horton hardly adds strength to your views


The very questionable......it would be interesting to hear why you think that. Is it the Wakefield paper? Do you know the history of that paper? It caused huge damage but it would be better to blame the scientific review process rather than a single journal editor.


----------



## winjim (3 Apr 2020)

Viking said:


> which in itself is fine but referring to a Guardian article which in turn uses the views of the very questionable Richard Horton hardly adds strength to your views


You seem to have a bit of an axe to grind when it comes to Horton.


----------



## newfhouse (3 Apr 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Incompetence doesn't even come close.
> https://www.irishpost.com/comment/virus-crisis-reveals-prime-ministers-absolute-incompetence-182331


I can’t argue with a single word of that.


----------



## newfhouse (3 Apr 2020)

lazybloke said:


> However, the right data in the right hands can bring benefits both to the individual and the wider community.


True as far as it goes. It’s for the proponents to provide details of what they consider the right data and, crucially, demonstrate the benefits. It is not good enough to point at the Far East and assume that their situations are comparable.

They then must answer all the other questions about ownership, distribution, anonymisation and retention. Oh, and monetisation, without which the other question is “who pays?”, or rather “what is the cost?”.


----------



## mjr (3 Apr 2020)

Swiss RTS News: extension of lock-out expected, slow roll-out of gov't aid, deaths peak not yet reached, problems accessing physio and allied, questions over professional exams, US advising mask-wearing, France accusing USA of mask gazumping, Russia limiting grain exports despite UN criticism, profile of Kier Starmer, Belgian football league finally abandoned.


----------



## PK99 (3 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> You seem to have a bit of an axe to grind when it comes to Horton.



Horton, and the Lancet under his Editorship, have long been accused of political bias. Whether one agrees with the political stances taken or not, is not the issue. Scientific journals should not lay themselves open to such accusations as doing so calls into question their scientific credibility.


----------



## Rocky (3 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> You seem to have a bit of an axe to grind when it comes to Horton.


All Horton is doing is vocalising the concerns of many of the medical profession.


----------



## Rocky (3 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Horton, and the Lancet under his Editorship, have long been accused of political bias. Whether one agrees with the political stances taken or not, is not the issue. Scientific journals should not lay themselves open to such accusations as doing so calls into question their scientific credibility.


Why not? If political bias is another way of saying the Lancet is concerned about the way health services are funded, managed and organised, I’d say it absolutely is his job.


----------



## mjr (3 Apr 2020)

Megabus suspended from Sunday.

That man/cock is on itv laughing away, wittering about immunity certificates, ignoring that it will punish those who avoided the virus by following instructions 

Charles Windsor to open Excel virus hospital. The Harrogate one mentioned above has been announced.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (3 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Megabus suspended from Sunday.
> 
> That man/cock is on itv laughing away, wittering about immunity certificates, ignoring that it will punish those who avoided the virus by following instructions
> 
> Charles Windsor to open Excel virus hospital. The Harrogate one mentioned above has been announced.


I listened to him on BBC Radio 4 this morning - nothing to convince me that 100,000 was more than a side of a bus calculation. Except this is not an election campaign and, besides, the bus service has been suspended.


----------



## tom73 (3 Apr 2020)

Most journals have a political stance in some way or another. It's one of the key questions anyone who has to review them.
Should alway's have in mind. Many once taken out of context even if they never had one soon get turned into one. 
Even not allowing free open access to articles could be taken as a political one.


----------



## winjim (3 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Megabus suspended from Sunday.
> 
> That man/cock is on itv laughing away, wittering about immunity certificates, ignoring that it will punish those who avoided the virus by following instructions
> 
> Charles Windsor to open Excel virus hospital. The Harrogate one mentioned above has been announced.


The woman in the Newcastle station case has had her conviction overturned. Can you imagine the state of policing and courts if immunity certificates have to be enforced?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...me-loitering-arrest-fine-police-a9444311.html


----------



## Rocky (3 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Most journals have a political stance in some way or another. It's one of the key questions anyone who has to review them.
> Should alway's have in mind. Many once taken out of context even if they never had one soon get turned into one.
> Even not allowing free open access to articles could be taken as a political one.


I agree. Science cannot be separated from politics. All facts are value laden. Look at the issues Galileo faced from the establishment when he published his research about the earth orbiting the sun. Or Robert Oppenheimer and nuclear fission/fusion. There are many cases throughout history.

Horton is simply doing what a good editor of a scientific journal should do. Perhaps our attention should be focused on those who criticise him. What are their motives?


----------



## winjim (3 Apr 2020)

My views on the coronavirus outbreak and the country's response to it are very, very political.


----------



## PK99 (3 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Why not? If political bias is another way of saying the Lancet is concerned about the way health services are funded, managed and organised, I’d say it absolutely is his job.



That is not the political bias often cited, and criticised by, among others, the NEJM.


----------



## Rocky (3 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> That is not the political bias often cited, and criticised by, among others, the NEJM.


You might need to provide references for that - I don't subscribe to the NEJM. The fact that journals criticise each other is nothing new. It is a competitive market. They are looking to boost their impact factor and readership. Science is never independent of politics or society. Different journals take different political stances.

Horton has been a very good editor of the Lancet - editors come and editors go. Scientific publishing is a cutthroat world. He has been editor since 1992 - which I would suggest is a testimony to his competence. In this day of political briefing and undermining our trust in experts, I'd suggest that much of the criticism of Horton originates from those politicians whom he criticises. I see this as him speaking truth to power. Good for him.


----------



## Rezillo (3 Apr 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Well, two rather different takes on the same thing:
> https://www.ipswichstar.co.uk/news/southwold-and-aldeburgh-second-homeowners-coronavirus-1-6570078
> [snip]
> 
> ...



Cllr Beavan appears to have had a welcome change of heart:

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/coronavirus-suffolk-southwold-banners-protest-1-6591748


----------



## winjim (3 Apr 2020)

Here's what the IBMS* has to say about the current state of testing.

*Institute of Biomedical Science, that's the body representing the lab staff actually carrying out the tests.

https://www.ibms.org/resources/news...XgoC60IXFLs_uqj9Hax3IlE-QHBDF_l1cw3Zlwg7kl_oQ


----------



## newfhouse (3 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> Here's what the IBMS* has to say about the current state of testing.
> 
> *Institute of Biomedical Science, that's the body representing the lab staff actually carrying out the tests.
> 
> https://www.ibms.org/resources/news...XgoC60IXFLs_uqj9Hax3IlE-QHBDF_l1cw3Zlwg7kl_oQ


The explanation makes it sound like a skilled but repetitive job. Material supply notwithstanding, are there enough trained people to test that many samples day after day after day without increasing the error rate or causing mental burn out?


----------



## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> The explanation makes it sound like a skilled but repetitive job. Material supply notwithstanding, are there enough trained people to test that many samples day after day after day without increasing the error rate or causing mental burn out?



Perhaps we invite staff in from overseas - free movement of people and all that...


----------



## winjim (3 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> The explanation makes it sound like a skilled but repetitive job. Material supply notwithstanding, are there enough trained people to test that many samples day after day after day without increasing the error rate or causing mental burn out?


Yeah, it's literally what we* do all day every day. The quality system should be in place to catch any errors.

*I'm not a registered BMS but I do a very similar job. I don't do PCR though.


----------



## vickster (3 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Perhaps we invite staff in from overseas - free movement of people and all that...


Are they not busy doing testing in their own countries though?


----------



## newfhouse (3 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Perhaps we invite staff in from overseas - free movement of people and all that...


I’m not sure now is the time to be poaching skilled people from other health services, much as I agree with the sentiment about free movement.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Are they not busy doing testing in their own countries though?



What u mean other countries might have trained extra staff* to help with the increased testing workload ? - its a thought I suppose !!!

*And they probably had more to start with !

....Anyway were ramping up testing the next week ! (Phew !!!!)


----------



## winjim (3 Apr 2020)

Has anybody read the IBMS piece? They've been cross training staff and prioritising workload. Staffing is not currently a major issue. For example, and I've been isolating so not at work so I don't know the exact situation, but I expect the specialist work I do to have gone down to a bare minimum of urgent cases only, freeing up staff to work in other sections of the lab. There is a certain amount of flexibility and staff can be redeployed.

Remember this will be covering not only COVID19 testing, but other testing relating to acute admissions, as well as regular lab work. It's not all about PCR.


----------



## tom73 (3 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> Yeah, it's literally what we* do all day every day. The quality system should be in place to catch any errors.
> 
> *I'm not a registered BMS but I do a very similar job. I don't do PCR though.



Is any work being down around looking at using AI to help with the increased volume of testing ? 
I understand that AI is being looked at for breast screening and is being used for reviewing some cardiac cases.


----------



## vickster (3 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What u mean other countries might have trained extra staff* to help with the increased testing workload ? - its a thought I suppose !!!
> 
> *And they probably had more to start with !
> 
> ....Anyway were ramping up testing the next week ! (Phew !!!!)


No idea. I just don’t think it’s right to poach staff from other countries during a global crisis.

And I’m certainly not looking for any sort of discussion on testing


----------



## winjim (3 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Is any work being down around looking at using AI to help with the increased volume of testing ?
> I understand that AI is being looked at for breast screening and is being used for reviewing some cardiac cases.


I believe in the case of breast cancer screening that AI is useful because there can be some degree of subjectivity in the interpreration, and an AI can be trained to spot certain patterns. I don't know much about PCR interpretation but in my field, biochemistry, I'm not sure it would be too useful for individual results. Maybe in spotting overall clinical patterns, but we do have algorithms in place for some things like that. But even all our automated processes are checked and authorised by a BMS or Clinical Scientist before release.

Anyway, even if it were for some reason desirable, just the time it would take to procure, train, test, troubleshoot and validate a system would be prohibitive. As you can imagine we have a very rigorous quality management system it would need to get through and I don't think it could be done.


----------



## winjim (3 Apr 2020)

Regarding poaching staff from other countries, they're not lab staff but it's worth noting that all five doctors who have died so far have been immigrants.


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## tom73 (3 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> I believe in the case of breast cancer screening that AI is useful because there can be some degree of subjectivity in the interpreration, and an AI can be trained to spot certain patterns. I don't know much about PCR interpretation but in my field, biochemistry, I'm not sure it would be too useful for individual results. Maybe in spotting overall clinical patterns, but we do have algorithms in place for some things like that. But even all our automated processes are checked and authorised by a BMS or Clinical Scientist before release.
> 
> Anyway, even if it were for some reason desirable, just the time it would take to procure, train, test, troubleshoot and validate a system would be prohibitive. As you can imagine we have a very rigorous quality management system it would need to get through and I don't think it could be done.



That's my take on it too I know it was used to track the spread as it took over most of world and spotting trends. 
More than likely it's helping track it across the county as the moment. Once this is over a whole lot of new data will need to gone though without AI it going to be one difficult job. 

I guess most of my question was more a general question really. Like you say it can't take over from skilled staff but when done well it can enhance them.


----------



## Mike_P (3 Apr 2020)

A different tribute to the NHS last night from Transdev in Harrogate (but not Arriva)

View: https://twitter.com/sunrise2409/status/1245792605922828288


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## tom73 (3 Apr 2020)

Only in the Uk in the middle of a national emergency do we still carry on with all the photo opps , all the big wigs and all the other nice bits of a formal opening ceremony. Of an emergency hospital ... Nice to see they have the priorities right.

I noticed talk of old Florence glossed over the bad bits.


----------



## winjim (3 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's my take on it too I know it was used to track the spread as it took over most of world and spotting trends.
> More than likely it's helping track it across the county as the moment. Once this is over a whole lot of new data will need to gone though without AI it going to be one difficult job.
> 
> I guess most of my question was more a general question really. Like you say it can't take over from skilled staff but when done well it can enhance them.


Of course, labs are moving increasingly towards automation. And if you can get software to do a lot of the drudgery, it frees up staff time for the more interesting and unusual cases.


----------



## marinyork (3 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Is any work being down around looking at using AI to help with the increased volume of testing ?
> I understand that AI is being looked at for breast screening and is being used for reviewing some cardiac cases.



Machine Learning is used in many areas of medicine and particularly diagnostics. There are hundreds and hundreds of machine learning papers about diagnostics. It's something that will change a lot the next 10-20 years. 

The use machine learning could probably be most useful for in this outbreak would be immunity passports and antibody test data. Our government really are wary towards antibody tests (you can still derive useful information from machine learning in theory even if the test isn't as accurate as you like, which is one reason why I strongly support the test). Aside you could very easily have too much data if they got their arses in gear. That's a not particularly easy job of prioritising who gets tests/what it means.

Machine learning I hope is being used collectively on the roughly 10,000 tests a day and the complete mess over retesting the same patients multiple times for inconclusive results.


----------



## PK99 (3 Apr 2020)

We have discussions about how far is too far to cycle, is it wrong to drive to a beauty spot to walk the dog etcetc.

this is how China is continuing to control spread :

From today's Times

_About 640,000 people have been sealed off indefinitely from the rest of China over fears of a new coronavirus outbreak caused by asymptomatic “silent carriers”.

Jia county, in the central province of Henan, announced yesterday that it was closing most factories and limiting access to all villages and residential compounds by allowing only one way in and out.

“Everyone must enter and leave with a permit, have the body temperature taken, and wear a face mask,” read the order. None of the country’s 640,000 residents is allowed to leave Jia, except for those with authorisation._


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## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> We have discussions about how far is too far to cycle, is it wrong to drive to a beauty spot to walk the dog etcetc.
> 
> this is how China is continuing to control spread :
> 
> ...



I reckon we might do this in the UK.............by around October....


----------



## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

A pity Maggie Thatcher isn't around - she had a knack for stopping people going to work.


----------



## tom73 (3 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I reckon we might do this in the UK.............by around October....



Oh the government efforts must be improving


----------



## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

Mrs KR just came back from walking the dog - seens loads of older folk congregating to have a chat - backs up what Ive seen when out cycling - Dog walking seems to exampt people from the rules.


----------



## AuroraSaab (3 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Only in the Uk in the middle of a national emergency do we still carry on with all the photo opps , all the big wigs and all the other nice bits of a formal opening ceremony. Of an emergency hospital ... Nice to see they have the priorities right.
> 
> I noticed talk of old Florence glossed over the bad bits.



I didn't watch it, but it sounded like quite a brief thing and it was an acknowledgement of the hard work of those who built it. I would imagine the actual work of getting it running was still going on.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

If Boris can't get out - Alan bstrd would be a good stand in right now


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAxEJEODbvc


----------



## mjr (3 Apr 2020)

Belgian (rtbf) news: lockdown not eased, extra checkpoints this weekend near coast and Ardennes to deter daytrippers and second-homers (pictured), reminder of rules including that two people in a car is only allowed for medical or care reasons and not shopping else €250 fine (and pictured some police getting too close), discussion of €1400 bonus for medical and care workers, more supermarkets closed by lack of antibac or PPE, discussion of Japanese study, 1m infections worldwide, USA deaths, mixed messages on masks, whether to reopen tips yet, difficulties for new mothers, trouble for small chocolatiers as Easter approaches but their shops stay quiet


----------



## mjr (3 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> *And they probably had more to start with !
> 
> ....Anyway were ramping up testing the next week ! (Phew !!!!)


but here's something to start with...

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/forest_fr1ends/status/1245970046406529025


----------



## Racing roadkill (3 Apr 2020)

Well I had my fill of Covidiots getting their comeuppance today. I was riding down to Romsey from Southampton today, and I ( yet again ) passed a group of 4 cyclists who clearly thought the rules didn’t apply to them. The police on the mountain bikes who appeared from a side road had other ideas. Then a couple of minutes later I happened across what initially looked like a RTC, on Millbrook road West ( a couple of emergency vehicles with the blues lit up ) just past the railway station at the lights. As I got closer I could see that it was in fact a stop, involving a fun bus, and an area car. They were busily shoving one of the occupants of the car into the cage, and bollocking the other 3 . This is a fun game. It’s just a shame the group of 5 cyclists I passed in the New Forest didn’t get caught ( whilst I was there ). So far, the majority of the blatant rule breakers that I’ve seen and have been obvious, have been Lycra clad knobbers on road bikes. They really are not doing any cyclists any favours ( for a change)


----------



## tom73 (3 Apr 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> I didn't watch it, but it sounded like quite a brief thing and it was an acknowledgement of the hard work of those who built it. I would imagine the actual work of getting it running was still going on.


More to do with politicians love of shiny things I suspect. The first 500 beds are all ready and open.


----------



## Racing roadkill (3 Apr 2020)

Well although the numbers of deaths reported thus far over the last 24 hours looks like a big number, and any death is bad news, the day to day increase rate is still not showing the ballistic trajectory that was simulated ( despite the government’s best efforts to ensure it was, by changing the counting rules / moving the goal posts yet again a couple of days ago ). So there is a fair degree of hope that this is under control already.


----------



## Blue Hills (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> any death is bad news,


ANY?


----------



## Mike_P (3 Apr 2020)

As to how long a lockdown could go on Councils have been given the powers to hold committee meetings virtually until 7 May 2021


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## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Well although the numbers of deaths reported thus far over the last 24 hours looks like a big number, and any death is bad news, the day to day increase rate is still not showing the ballistic trajectory that was simulated ( despite the government’s best efforts to ensure it was, by changing the counting rules / moving the goal posts yet again a couple of days ago ). So there is a fair degree of hope that this is under control already.



Really ? - we seem to have gone from around 100 deaths per day to close on 700 per day. Were getting pretty close to Spain and Italy levels ? 

Don't forget the daily stats are hospital deaths - so once the hospitals fill up, the figure we remain at that level - despite more dying at home.


----------



## Racing roadkill (3 Apr 2020)

Mike_P said:


> As to how long a lockdown could go on Councils have been given the powers to hold committee meetings virtually until 7 May 2021


I’d expect degree of lockdown for a couple of years, until we know how this thing behaves season on season. I wouldn’t expect the degree of lockdown we have now to continue for more than a couple of months though.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Well although the numbers of deaths reported thus far over the last 24 hours looks like a big number, and any death is bad news, the day to day increase rate is still not showing the ballistic trajectory that was simulated ( despite the government’s best efforts to ensure it was, by changing the counting rules / moving the goal posts yet again a couple of days ago ). So there is a fair degree of hope that this is under control already.



Unfortunately, you are absolutely and completely wrong here

Current cases: 684

An exponential rise has a constant doubling time, so we can look back at when we first passed the times to double.

342: passed on 31st March - 3 days to double171: passed on 27th March - 4 days to double86: passed on 24th March - 3 days to double43: passed on 21st March - 3 days to double21 : passed on 18th March - 3 days to double

*The death rate has doubled consistently every 3-4 days since we passed 20 deaths.*

It's an almost perfect fit to an exponential rise.

Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

Ballistic is, alas, a very good description. We can only hope the distancing measures put in place start to show effect soon. Experience from elsewhere, due to the incubation period to symptoms showing and subsequent time from symptoms to mortality, very unfortunately suggests this may not happen for several days to come. Let's hope otherwise, as that projects to more than 2,000 daily deaths in a weeks time.


----------



## Racing roadkill (3 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Really ? - we seem to have gone from around 100 deaths per day to close on 700 per day. Were getting pretty close to Spain and Italy levels ?
> 
> Don't forget the daily stats are hospital deaths - so once the hospitals fill up, the figure we remain at that level - despite more dying at home.


No we’re not. The balllistic trajectory model had us closer to 1000 deaths a day by now. We are not Italy, it’s a nonsense to compare the U.K. to Italy, our social demographic is completely different to Italy, and we have reacted accordingly, Italy didn’t react according to its demographic, and is now seeing the result. Unless our government changes the counting rules again ( I don’t doubt they’ll try ) we should see a flat line in rates of increase of deaths or even a decrease. Forget using Italy as any sort of yard stick, it’s a case apart.


----------



## Smokin Joe (3 Apr 2020)

The number of confirmed cases have reached one million world wide, with 51,000 deaths. That is a death rate of 5.1%, but as the first figure only counts those who were unwell enough to seek medical help and up to 80% of those who catch it have either mild or no symptoms which mostly go unrecorded the actual death rate must be considerably lower, especially if you take into account that many who did not survive were at or near end of life anyway.


----------



## Racing roadkill (3 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Unfortunately, you are absolutely and completely wrong here
> 
> Current cases: 684
> 
> ...


That is the biggest load of scare mongering nonsense I’ve seen yet ( and I’ve seen some ) I suggest you stop reading the Daily Mail, and actually read what has happened in the last couple of days. Take it from a slightly more credible source, ( like the BBC ) and stop trying to cherry pick nonsense to try and fit your pessimistic view.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> No we’re not. The balllistic trajectory model had us closer to 1000 deaths a day by now. We are not Italy, it’s a nonsense to compare the U.K. to Italy, our social demographic is completely different to Italy, and we have reacted accordingly, Italy didn’t react according to its demographic, and is now seeing the result. Unless our government changes the counting rules again ( I don’t doubt they’ll try ) we should see a flat line in rates of increase of deaths or even a decrease. Forget using Italy as any sort of yard stick, it’s a case apart.



Again, you are absolutely and unequivocally wrong. Again, you provide no source to back up your entirely baseless assertions.

Our rise has consistently tracked Italy's and is now looking rather worse if anything, as Italy's had already started to move away from exponential at this point. Note the data does not include today's figures.







https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...hich-countries-have-the-most-cases-and-deaths


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## roubaixtuesday (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> That is the biggest load of scare mongering nonsense I’ve seen yet ( and I’ve seen some ) I suggest you stop reading the Daily Mail, and actually read what has happened in the last couple of days. Take it from a slightly more credible source, ( like the BBC ) and stop trying to cherry pick nonsense to try and fit your pessimistic view.



The source is raw data form the government.


----------



## newfhouse (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> That is the biggest load of scare mongering nonsense I’ve seen yet ( and I’ve seen some ) I suggest you stop reading the Daily Mail, and actually read what has happened in the last couple of days. Take it from a slightly more credible source, ( like the BBC ) and stop trying to cherry pick nonsense to try and fit your pessimistic view.


Are you arguing with the arithmetic or the source data?


----------



## Racing roadkill (3 Apr 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> The number of confirmed cases have reached one million world wide, with 51,000 deaths. That is a death rate of 5.1%, but as the first figure only counts those who were unwell enough to seek medical help and up to 80% of those who catch it have either mild or no symptoms which mostly go unrecorded the actual death rate must be considerably lower, especially if you take into account that many who did not survive were at or near end of life anyway.


Quite right. Until there is blanket mass testing ( both antigen and antibody ) the true picture won’t be apparent. The feeling amongst the actual experts ( epidemiologists and the like ) is that this isn’t a particularly lethal pathogen, it’s just that an extremely unusual large number of people have it. Until we know exactly how many, and those people’s outcomes, the numbers are largely meaningless.


----------



## Racing roadkill (3 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The source is raw data form the government.


Which shouldn’t be interpreted by anyone except experts.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> No we’re not. The balllistic trajectory model had us closer to 1000 deaths a day by now. We are not Italy, it’s a nonsense to compare the U.K. to Italy, our social demographic is completely different to Italy, and we have reacted accordingly, Italy didn’t react according to its demographic, and is now seeing the result. Unless our government changes the counting rules again ( I don’t doubt they’ll try ) we should see a flat line in rates of increase of deaths or even a decrease. Forget using Italy as any sort of yard stick, it’s a case apart.



Wait and see.

The ageing population thing has been to an extent exploded - as those people aren't out and about so much. Hence why so many people in there 50's get infected (they still work) 

In days since first death we reacted about the same time line as Italy - and our lockdown isn't as tight.


----------



## newfhouse (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Which shouldn’t be interpreted by anyone except experts.


Not interpretation, counting.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Which shouldn’t be interpreted by anyone except experts.



That's *exactly* what you did! You made a series of assertions based solely on your own interpretation without any expert basis whatever, entirely unsourced and in direct contradiction to the facts.


----------



## Pale Rider (3 Apr 2020)

Regional breakdown for the latest daily death figures in England:

East of England 66
London 161
Midlands 150
North East & Yorkshire 62
North West 88
South East 41
South West 36
TOTAL 604

The figures follow population density as would be expected, but the North West stands out.

I would expect that region to give a similar number to London and the Midlands, rather than about half.

Any ideas why that should be?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Regional breakdown for the latest daily death figures in England:
> 
> East of England 66
> London 161
> ...



I'd be *very* cautious ascribing significance to a single day's figures. Are the cumulative figures consistent with these? What's the per capita figures?


----------



## Unkraut (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> The feeling amongst the actual experts ( epidemiologists and the like ) is that this isn’t a particularly lethal pathogen, it’s just that an extremely unusual large number of people have it.


Quite. But this does not take into account healthcare system overload, and the knock-on effect of lack of capacity to treat patients who otherwise could be treated. The eventual number of deaths from the virus, if it does actually overload the system, will include many who were never infected by it but couldn't be treated properly for their own life-threatening illnesses.

I can't understand why those moaning about the lockdown never seem to be able to understand this crucial point, but constantly compare it to the flu and have an attitude of carrying on as usual as though it were flu. (Hitchens & Co are at it again.)


----------



## mjr (3 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The figures follow population density as would be expected, but the North West stands out.
> 
> I would expect that region to give a similar number to London and the Midlands, rather than about half.
> 
> Any ideas why that should be?


Number of metropolises, working on the theory that this spreads easier/faster there with all the associated rapid transport gubbins? The North West may contain Liverpool-Birkenhead (5th biggest metro area in UK) and Manchester (3rd) metro areas, both about 2.5m, but that's all in the top 20. The Midlands contains Birmingham (2nd, 3.7m), Nottingham-Derby (9th), Leicester (16th) and Stoke (20th). It's not a perfect explanation because NE&Yorks contains more but has fewer deaths than the NW.


----------



## mjr (3 Apr 2020)

There seems to be a new "Stay At Home" TV advert, using images from the NHS. Annoyingly, it says you can only go out for essential shopping, health and work - no mention of exercise, although there is video of someone exercising. It's like they're making up a new message for each broadcast 

At least it's better than the one with Chris Whitty staring unblinkingly out at you, telling you how not to catch what he caught.


----------



## Wobblers (3 Apr 2020)

lazybloke said:


> My point was puzzlement that a 'web master' would seemingly decry an internet technology. Without any context it seemed a bit Luddite, or Gerald Ratner-esque.
> 
> I do agree with being very cautious before surrendering data-privacy; most of my career has been cyber security and penetration testing, so I'm well aware that v bad things happen when sensitive data falls into the wrong hands.
> 
> However, the right data in the right hands can bring benefits both to the individual and the wider community.



You ought to take a look at theregister.co.uk. That website's dedicated to IT news - and as you might expect, its forums are populated by various IT types (the sort of people who develop software, run databases, administrate computers and networks and so on). You'll struggle to find any of them who don't hold similar opinions to @mjr. In fact, many of them hold even stronger opinions on the topic of privacy and IT.

There is good reason for this: these are the people who appreciate the power of this data. And, more importantly, the _consequences_. They understand that this word "anonymisation" refers to something that isn't possible. What one person can anonymise, another can undo. For instance, combining location data with, say, the electoral register it becomes possible to unambiguously identify many people's identity. Combining publically accessible data sources it is possible to determine peoples' religion, sexual orientation and political beliefs. (Both Facebook and Google do exactly this: it's their very business model.) In just the last century, hundreds of millions of people were persecuted for these three things. Millions died as a result. It's still happening - ask any Muslim in Myanmar for instance. 

To use the example of the Luddites to fail to understand them. They weren't anti-technology, as is so often portrayed. They were against the uses of technology to deskill the workforce, and by doing so concentrate wealth and power into one small cadre. And that is something which is very much relevant today.

(My apologies for going rather Off Topic)


----------



## glasgowcyclist (3 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> these are the people who appreciate the power of this data. And, more importantly, the _consequences_. They understand that this word "anonymisation" refers to something that isn't possible. What one person can anonymise, another can undo



It's a bit like "Who keeps the fish". At least, that's how I finally managed to convince my daughter how seemingly random pieces of unconnected data could lead you to build an accurate picture of people's lives. She's now very privacy conscious.


----------



## Dave Davenport (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Well I had my fill of Covidiots getting their comeuppance today. I was riding down to Romsey from Southampton today, and I ( yet again ) passed a group of 4 cyclists who clearly thought the rules didn’t apply to them. The police on the mountain bikes who appeared from a side road had other ideas. Then a couple of minutes later I happened across what initially looked like a RTC, on Millbrook road West ( a couple of emergency vehicles with the blues lit up ) just past the railway station at the lights. As I got closer I could see that it was in fact a stop, involving a fun bus, and an area car. They were busily shoving one of the occupants of the car into the cage, and bollocking the other 3 . This is a fun game. It’s just a shame the group of 5 cyclists I passed in the New Forest didn’t get caught ( whilst I was there ). So far, the majority of the blatant rule breakers that I’ve seen and have been obvious, have been Lycra clad knobbers on road bikes. They really are not doing any cyclists any favours ( for a change)



I've been out for a ride a few times in the last week (alone or with Mrs D) and haven't seen any 'groups' of cyclists at all (lycra clad roadies or otherwise).


----------



## Wobblers (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> No we’re not. The balllistic trajectory model had us closer to 1000 deaths a day by now. We are not Italy, it’s a nonsense to compare the U.K. to Italy, our social demographic is completely different to Italy, and we have reacted accordingly, Italy didn’t react according to its demographic, and is now seeing the result. Unless our government changes the counting rules again ( I don’t doubt they’ll try ) we should see a flat line in rates of increase of deaths or even a decrease. Forget using Italy as any sort of yard stick, it’s a case apart.



This is simply nonsense:







The UK has been experiencing exponential growth in CV-19 deaths for over the last week. The straight line that the UK numbers plot in the graph above is absolutely typical of exponential growth in a log plot. And, unlike Italy or France, it's showing no sign of flattening out. We, in fact, have been doing worse than Italy in every single day. This is not "scaremongering": these are the facts.

PS: this is from the published data from PHE, not "The Daily Mail".


----------



## Wobblers (3 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Quite right. Until there is blanket mass testing ( both antigen and antibody ) the true picture won’t be apparent. *The feeling amongst the actual experts* ( epidemiologists and the like ) is that this isn’t a particularly lethal pathogen, it’s just that an extremely unusual large number of people have it. Until we know exactly how many, and those people’s outcomes, the numbers are largely meaningless.



Another unattributed assertion. I trust you can back that up with actual quotations, from actual epidemiologists?


----------



## Rezillo (3 Apr 2020)

14 coronavirus deaths at Ipswich Hospital were not reported due to ‘admin error’

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/ipswich-hospital-coronavirus-deaths-suffolk-1-6592809

Almost beggars belief.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

Rezillo said:


> 14 coronavirus deaths at Ipswich Hospital were not reported due to ‘admin error’
> 
> https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/ipswich-hospital-coronavirus-deaths-suffolk-1-6592809
> 
> Almost beggars belief.


Not if you work for the NHS


----------



## Rezillo (3 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not if you work for the NHS



True. 

In years gone by, the NHS used to send its failed hospital managers/CEs to the Strategic Health Authority, a kind of gulag of NHS incompetence, where they used to spend a year or two in nothing that was public facing or harmful to anyone. When hopefully the public had forgotten about them, they were booted out into another NHS region as a hospital manager there. This process started to fall down when simply googling the manager's name revealed just what their failings were at their last hospital and made for some great press conferences that did not go the way the NHS intended.

The Strategic Health Authorities were abolished some years ago. I wonder where the useless managers that they are afraid to dismiss go now?


----------



## Mike_P (3 Apr 2020)

Rezillo said:


> 14 coronavirus deaths at Ipswich Hospital were not reported due to ‘admin error’
> 
> https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/ipswich-hospital-coronavirus-deaths-suffolk-1-6592809
> 
> Almost beggars belief.


How many CV19 deaths are of people who sadly would have died anyway. Could well be many are terminally unwell and that was put down of the cause of death.


----------



## winjim (3 Apr 2020)

Mike_P said:


> How many CV19 deaths are of people who sadly would have died anyway. Could well be many are terminally unwell and that was put down of the cause of death.


Somebody somewhere calculated that for the over 80s, the chance of dying within a year is about 10%. If you factor in COVID19 that rises to about 19%. It seems to work for all age groups, C19 doubles the chance of dying.


----------



## tom73 (3 Apr 2020)

Rezillo said:


> True.
> 
> In years gone by, the NHS used to send its failed hospital managers/CEs to the Strategic Health Authority, a kind of gulag of NHS incompetence, where they used to spend a year or two in nothing that was public facing or harmful to anyone. When hopefully the public had forgotten about them, they were booted out into another NHS region as a hospital manager there. This process started to fall down when simply googling the manager's name revealed just what their failings were at their last hospital and made for some great press conferences that did not go the way the NHS intended.
> 
> The Strategic Health Authorities were abolished some years ago. I wonder where the useless managers that they are afraid to dismiss go now?



CCG's more than likely.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (3 Apr 2020)

I realise that each death from Covid19 is a tragedy but I must confess to having had to make a real effort not to cry when I heard the news on the radio as I drove home that two nurses, only in their 30s and each with three children, had died with the virus.

Both worked in their respective hospitals’ acute medical units and had been caring for Covid19 patients.

Areema Nasreen was 36.
Aimee O'Rourke was 39.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-51952607


----------



## mjr (3 Apr 2020)

Does anyone know what happened on 14 March in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Estona? @steveindenmark? @roubaixtuesday? Anyone else?

I ask because when clicking around on https://www.datacat.cc/covid/ I found that those five nations were following a similar trajectory of number of cases to the Italy/France curve (doubles every three days) up to that date, then all of them seem to change to a slightly lower trajectory on that date. Germany did not change course, nor did Italy or France. Spain does worse throughout.







I've not shown the UK or the other Baltic-bordering countries on that plot because we were earlier in our outbreaks than the threshold I've used.

Could it be significant or am I finding patterns emerging from random noise by looking too hard?


----------



## numbnuts (3 Apr 2020)

Mike_P said:


> How many CV19 deaths are of people who sadly would have died anyway. Could well be many are terminally unwell and that was put down of the cause of death.


Dead right ….opps it is the last known cause that killed you, dying of cancer – car accident = accidental death. 
These high figures “could” be a lot lower.


----------



## Rocky (3 Apr 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Dead right ….opps it is the last known cause that killed you, dying of cancer – car accident = accidental death.
> These high figures “could” be a lot lower.


They are not......this is a nasty pandemic and our hospitals are being over-whelmed.

(This news is from the front line from my son who is working in Covid care at a London Hospital..........he has just had to have an end of life discussion with one patient)


----------



## DaveReading (3 Apr 2020)

Latest example of muddled thinking by HMG - I didn't see today's press conference, but the Health Secretary is being quoted as saying _"Stay at home this weekend; that's an instruction, not a request"_.

Er, no, it isn't as there is no meaningful distinction between the two terms.

It's either something you *should *do (i.e. dependent on your conscience, common sense and how public-spirited you are) or something that you *must*, by law do.

I'll be out on the bike this weekend (solo on quiet roads, presenting a danger to no-one) and I'll continue to do so until such time as the law tells me I can't legally do so.


----------



## mjr (3 Apr 2020)

Some people are complaining about being asked to sign Do Not Resuscitate papers for elderly parents. But not all, it seems:


----------



## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

Rezillo said:


> True.
> 
> In years gone by, the NHS used to send its failed hospital managers/CEs to the Strategic Health Authority, a kind of gulag of NHS incompetence, where they used to spend a year or two in nothing that was public facing or harmful to anyone. When hopefully the public had forgotten about them, they were booted out into another NHS region as a hospital manager there. This process started to fall down when simply googling the manager's name revealed just what their failings were at their last hospital and made for some great press conferences that did not go the way the NHS intended.
> 
> The Strategic Health Authorities were abolished some years ago. I wonder where the useless managers that they are afraid to dismiss go now?



They weren't abolished - they are just called CCG s !!!!


----------



## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

Mike_P said:


> How many CV19 deaths are of people who sadly would have died anyway. Could well be many are terminally unwell and that was put down of the cause of death.


I'm sure Boris and Hancock will be giving us those figures in the next couple of weeks.


----------



## mjr (3 Apr 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Just a thought, how about next Thursday at 8pm we all step out of our doorways to boo our disapproval of this government's non handling of the situation and its decade of attack on the NHS and other public services.
> 
> Let's get this idea some traction and put the focus back where it should be.


I think another day of the week may work better and not get participants lynched. I suggest a Monday at 2030 the time Boris announced the lockdown.


----------



## Adam4868 (3 Apr 2020)

Johnson out of quarantine....

View: https://twitter.com/Wade73605662/status/1245773901554159617?s=19


----------



## tom73 (3 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> They are not......this is a nasty pandemic and our hospitals are being over-whelmed.
> 
> (This news is from the front line from my son who is working in Covid care at a London Hospital..........he has just had to have an end of life discussion with one patient)


 Never a great thing but now even worse at least he had time to ask them and explain things.
I worry that many won’t get that sadly, it happens often now without the extra pressure of current situation.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Apr 2020)

Never mind obeying the rules.......wtf are they first ??


----------



## tom73 (3 Apr 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Just a thought, how about next Thursday at 8pm we all step out of our doorways to boo our disapproval of this government's non handling of the situation and its decade of attack on the NHS and other public services.
> 
> Let's get this idea some traction and put the focus back where it should be.


To be fair the attack started well before that which ever colour the donkey was.


----------



## winjim (3 Apr 2020)

They already did the booing thing. That you don't know that should tell you how successful it was.


----------



## Stephenite (3 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Does anyone know what happened on 14 March in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Estona? @steveindenmark? @roubaixtuesday? Anyone else?
> 
> I ask because when clicking around on https://www.datacat.cc/covid/ I found that those five nations were following a similar trajectory of number of cases to the Italy/France curve (doubles every three days) up to that date, then all of them seem to change to a slightly lower trajectory on that date. Germany did not change course, nor did Italy or France. Spain does worse throughout.
> 
> ...


It was just prior to/and around this date that the Scandinavian countries introduced various versions of "lockdown", including schools closing, restrictions on group sizes, bar/cafe restrictions, avoid public transport, etc. Sweden has a quite liberal lockdown in relation. Estonia I dont know anything about.

I'm not sure the effects of the lockdown in itself produced the effects on the graph you've shown. I think it (i dont know just to be clear) may have been caused by a reduction in testing. All of a sudden the political tone was a lot more serious, at least here in Norway, and it may have led to a conscious decision to save the testing for when it was really needed.

Another change from 11th march (in Norway) was sending workers home who exhibited cold/flu-like symptoms. I fell foul of this on the evening of the 11th and phoned the doctor the next day. He said we are not testing people unless they fulfill more stringent criteria.

My guess is that the testing regime changed, and that caused the change in the trajectory in the graph.

I'm writing this with quarantined kids running around screaming. I hope it makes some sense.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 Apr 2020)

Have I got news for you right now. Bloody hilarious!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Apr 2020)

.


mjr said:


> Does anyone know what happened on 14 March in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Estona? @steveindenmark? @roubaixtuesday? Anyone else?
> 
> I ask because when clicking around on https://www.datacat.cc/covid/ I found that those five nations were following a similar trajectory of number of cases to the Italy/France curve (doubles every three days) up to that date, then all of them seem to change to a slightly lower trajectory on that date. Germany did not change course, nor did Italy or France. Spain does worse throughout.
> 
> ...



I wouldn't read anything too much into case numbers, depends on testing strategy and availability. 

Just personal views, I'm no expert.


----------



## mjr (3 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> 
> I wouldn't read anything too much into case numbers, depends on testing strategy and availability.
> ...


When I'm back at a big screen, I'll check deaths but I think it was similar but for fewer countries because some hadn't had enough deaths to show a change on a graph around that date.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (3 Apr 2020)

Mike_P said:


> How many CV19 deaths are of people who sadly would have died anyway. Could well be many are terminally unwell and that was put down of the cause of death.



It is a good question. It is impossible for an exact answer to be given, but you will find an assessment here. 

One thing that worries me, is how quick the daily fatality rate can fall if and when it reaches the peak. For China, the number who died after fatalities per day peaked was roughly the same as before. My concern, is since we are talking about relaxing restrictions already, and our lockdown is nothing as stringent as China's, both of which will likely cause the tail of our (and certainly USA's) curve as shown below ending up being longer, and falling off slower, which mean increased death toll.







Notes:

1. In case it is difficult to understand, the area under each curve represents the total number who died, although it is important to remember the curves are plotted on a log, not linear, scale, so area assessment must also be considered likewise.

2. The figures used for plotting the above are from 7 day rolling averages, which I think means the curves are smoothed with a lag of 3 days (hence you won't see the US figure exceeding 1000, although it has done so already). The reason why it is necessary to use rolling averages is because otherwise the curves would look very jagged, as demonstrated here.

3. With the health warning that it is based purely on the respective trajectories of the curves, because UK's is both higher and rising steeper, our final death toll is likely to be higher than Italy's.


----------



## pawl (3 Apr 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Just a thought, how about next Thursday at 8pm we all step out of our doorways to boo our disapproval of this government's non handling of the situation and its decade of attack on the NHS and other public services.
> 
> Let's get this idea some traction and put the focus back where it should be.




Back in 1981 I was a student nurse working on a surgical ward I came on duty at 2 pmThe ward sister and my self worked til10 pm as no cover was available Under staffing has always been a problem.We were flat out for the whole shift 

In am not trying to compare the current situation with back then I for one will not consider standing on the door step booing But will be clapping my old colleagues and every body else that is going above the call of duty.


----------



## Julia9054 (3 Apr 2020)

Youngest son - final year music student - has just got a job as a hospital porter at the new coronavirus Nightingale hospital in Harrogate. Starts Monday. Scary times.


----------



## Pale Rider (3 Apr 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Just a thought, how about next Thursday at 8pm we all step out of our doorways to boo our disapproval of this government's non handling of the situation and its decade of attack on the NHS and other public services.
> 
> Let's get this idea some traction and put the focus back where it should be.


Aye, nothing like a few thousand deaths to score cheap political points.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Youngest son - final year music student - has just got a job as a hospital porter at the new coronavirus Nightingale hospital in Harrogate. Starts Monday. Scary times.



Same name as London one? Would have thought it’d have a different name to avoid confusion.


----------



## Julia9054 (3 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Same name as London one? Would have thought it’d have a different name to avoid confusion.


Dunno about that there London. They have converted the Harrogate conference centre.


----------



## Salty seadog (3 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Aye, nothing like a few thousand deaths to score cheap political points.



Just maybe it's about sending a message of disappointment and disapproval. As another member pointed out maybe better done on a different day to seperate the messages. 

Get real, this lots response is a disgrace.
We have had a good few weeks advance to sort out our response and what have we got.

Like to hear your thoughts @Pale Rider.


----------



## Rusty Nails (3 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Same name as London one? Would have thought it’d have a different name to avoid confusion.


I doubt the ambulance drivers, patients or nurses will get confused between Harrogate and London.

Many hospitals currently have the same name


----------



## mjr (3 Apr 2020)

They're only calling them Nightingale Hospitals to stop UK broadcasters calling them field hospitals like the foreign broadcasters do.


----------



## Pale Rider (3 Apr 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Just maybe it's about sending a message of disappointment and disapproval. As another member pointed out maybe better done on a different day to seperate the messages.
> 
> Get real, this lots response is a disgrace.
> We have had a good few weeks advance to sort out our response and what have we got.
> ...




Presumably, by attack on the NHS you mean more money should have been spent on it during the last 10 years.

Had that been done it would have been of very little benefit in treating Corona because it would have, quite properly, been spent on patient care at the time.

It's impossible to prepare in any detail for an extraordinary event.

If, after Corona, we make sure we have plenty of ventilators to hand, it's guaranteed the next emergency won't need them, but some other gadget.

Having kept public spending under control does at least mean we can raise the money to pay for Corona measures.

As regards the response, I doubt any other politician else could do any better.

Boris and Hancock are figureheads to a degree, articulating the views of the scientists.

The response largely comes down to their expertise, which most people rate highly.

Hindsight tells us some measures could have been taken earlier, but I haven't seen a coherent argument against the measures themselves.


----------



## Wobblers (3 Apr 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Dead right ….opps it is the last known cause that killed you, dying of cancer – car accident = accidental death.
> These high figures “could” be a lot lower.



It just beggars belief that, even with the ghastly news coming in every day from Italy and Spain, and over own rapidly escalating deaths, many of whom are in their 60s, 50s, 40s - or even younger! - that we still people trying to pretend that CV-19 is a non-issue. Do you really think that those two nurses who died in their 30s were already at death's door?

I believe that you suffer from emphysema, yes? That puts you in one of the highest risk categories, unfortunately. Do you understand that this lockdown is specifically aimed at reducing the risk of people in vulnerable categories such as *yourself* of getting this disease?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 Apr 2020)

While older people are more likely to die if they contract coronavirus, evidence continues to show that younger people are also being severely impacted. 

Dr David Hepburn, ICU consultant at Newport’s Royal Gwent hospital in south Wales, has said all the patients there are under-50.

Speaking to Channel 4 News, he said:



> The pattern of illness that we’ve seen in Gwent, and I can’t speak for anywhere else, is much younger patients than we were expecting. When the reports started coming out of Wuhan, we were led to believe that this was something that was particularly dangerous for the more elderly patients but I would say all the patients we’ve got an intensive care are in their 50s or younger at the moment.
> Our youngest patient is in her early 20s. And there are, you know, there are patients who are very well, you know, a chap who’s a fitness professional but you know there are a lot of patients who are not, do not have any pre-existing medical conditions. They’re not diabetic or anything like that.
> We’ve got 16 ventilated patients in the intensive care unit at the minute, which has led us to completely run out of space. So we’ve taken over theatre recovery, and we’ve got a further eight there. I think by the end of today, we will fill recovery. So that’ll bring us up to 25 patients.
> And then we have another area prepared, which is the old high dependency unit and coronary care that we’ve taken over as well. We can fit a further 22 patients in that area. The way things are going at the minute, the rate of growth and the amount of admissions that we’re seeing, I would say we will fill that by the end of the week, probably.


----------



## Wobblers (3 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Presumably, by attack on the NHS you mean more money should have been spent on it during the last 10 years.
> 
> Had that been done it would have been of very little benefit in treating Corona because it would have, quite properly, been spent on patient care at the time.
> 
> ...



The shortage in respirators we're experiencing was predicted in the aftermath of an exercise simulating a flu epidemic (which had characteristics rather similar to CV-19) back in 2016. Nothing was done to address this rather critical failing. Johnson has been in government for most of that time, so he certainly does not get a free pass.

The utter debacle over testing in this country mirrors the chaos in the Johnson government. The ability to rapidly test large numbers of people is absolutely crucial in containing this outbreak (which is why myself, RecordAceFromNew and marinyork have banged on about it at such lengths). Without testing, we cannot get those infected into quarantine, nor track, test and quarantine those they've been in contact with. Not merely does this mean that this economically destructive lockdown will have to continue much longer than it would otherwise, but once restrictions are relaxed, it will most likely be followed by a resurgence in infections. The blame for this lies squarely with Johnson and Hancock.

We will all suffer the consequences of the failure of the Johnson government to get to grips with this epidemic for many years to come. Well, apart from those who sadly die.

(Edited to add link)


----------



## Shut Up Legs (3 Apr 2020)

Finally some good news (for Australia, at least):

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...ive-coverage/495a807739e273d0f8e69641c584e8e5

Researchers are claiming that the total number of coronavirus infections in Australia could actually start to drop from about mid-April, *provided* everyone here continues to follow the distancing rules and laws. Australia has had one of the lowest infection rates, and death/infection rates, in the world, so we've avoided the worst impact of the virus (so far, anyway ).

I hope these researchers are correct, because I could use some good news for a change.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Aye, nothing like a few thousand deaths to score cheap political points.



Our preparedness for this, and the response to it, are matters of policy. 

They are, therefore, by definition, political.

Attempts to deny the politics of this, are also political.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (3 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> It's impossible to prepare in any detail for an extraordinary event.



Taiwan managed it.


----------



## Venod (3 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Same name as London one? Would have thought it’d have a different name to avoid confusion.


London Nightingale Hospital. 
Harrogate Nightingale Hospital

Sounds different to me.


----------



## Pale Rider (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Our preparedness for this, and the response to it, are matters of policy.
> 
> They are, therefore, by definition, political.
> 
> Attempts to deny the politics of this, are also political.



Time and a place for everything.

The time to spank Johnson's arse is certainly not when he's trying to lead the fight against the virus.

The place to do it is at the ballot box.



McWobble said:


> The blame for this lies squarely with Johnson and Hancock.



Do you honestly think there would be fewer deaths if we'd elected a different prime minister a few months ago?

There's a danger here of simply blaming the incumbents.

Had Labour been in charge, I suppose you'd have excused them all responsibility because they'd been bowled a curved ball.


----------



## Unkraut (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Aye, nothing like a few thousand deaths to score cheap political points.


I don't think anyone should be trying to score cheap political points over this issue. I've just read someone blaming the loss of sovereignty to the EU for Spain and Italy having such a bad time. That is beyond pathetic and it bothers me that anyone could even think like that. Perhaps _think_ like that is being too generous.

The cost, in terms of illness, makes this a far more serious issue than the normal stuff of political debate. I think even a hardcore Conservative supporter would have every right if not duty to heavily criticise the government for its initial handling - or lack of it - of this.


----------



## Unkraut (4 Apr 2020)

Shut Up Legs said:


> Finally some good news (for Australia, at least):


Also from here, though very tentative. The infection rate has almost got to R = 1 which indicates the 'curve' is flattening. It looks as though the restrictions are starting to have an effect, which I hope will at least encourage everyone that it does actually pay off.

Not yet out of the woods though by any means.


----------



## Mugshot (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Time and a place for everything.
> 
> The time to spank Johnson's arse is certainly not when he's trying to lead the fight against the virus.
> 
> ...


Do you know if the government are going against WHO advice and if they are why?


View: https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1246143219718553602?s=20


----------



## Wobblers (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Do you honestly think there would be fewer deaths if we'd elected a different prime minister a few months ago?
> 
> There's a danger here of simply blaming the incumbents.
> 
> Had Labour been in charge, I suppose you'd have excused them all responsibility because they'd been bowled a curved ball.



That is whataboutary. I've never hidden my opinion that Corbyn is an inept dolt. Had his government been just as useless as the Johnson government, damn right I'd be pointing out his failings. But it is not Labour who are to blame for the chaotic debacle that CV-19 testing has descended to. Nor was it Labour who declined to participate in the EU's plan to procure vitally needed respirators. It was Johnson's government who then gave the simply risible excuse that "the spam filter ate the email" - despite the fact it had been rejected earlier on what I can only assume to be ideological grounds. This disorganisation comes straight from the top. It is a direct consequence of Johnson first failing to understand the gravity of the situation, then his inability to organise an appropriate response . 

Frankly, I don't care about the political complexion of the PM - more that they understand that, in the absence of a vaccine, our best hope to get out of this ghastly situation is to urgently implement testing of all suspected CV-19 cases, isolate those who test positive and rigorously track down their contacts to reduce continued spread. Johsnon's not doing that. I think that Margaret Thatcher would have grasped the issues far sooner, and cracked heads together to get the required level of organisation throughout the whole government and NHS.


----------



## Pale Rider (4 Apr 2020)

The response looks well organised to me.

In such a complicated task, keeping cock ups to a minimum is the best you can hope for.

Did whatever happened with that email knock us back to any great degree?

As Gove said in one of the briefings, we've been buying ventilators all over the place, including from the EU.

There's been some problems with protective clothing, but if the demand for anything spikes significantly there will be shortages.

Our manufacturing companies have proved themselves adept at turning their hand to making stuff they don't usually make.

Examining the alternatives is not whataboutery, it's a valid part of assessing performance and what could be expected.

Chuck Johnson and Hancock in the Thames if you like, but there's no point in doing that unless there is or was something better to put in their place.

The chancellor should also get an honourable mention.

Brilliant job by him and his staff to come up with two huge rescue plans in such short order.


----------



## winjim (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Aye, nothing like a few thousand deaths to score cheap political points.


Well shoot, and there was me blaming the government when it was only a few hundred.


Pale Rider said:


> Hindsight tells us some measures could have been taken earlier, but I haven't seen a coherent argument against the measures themselves.


It's not hindsight when people were screaming at them to do something long before they actually did it.


----------



## Salty seadog (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Presumably, by attack on the NHS you mean more money should have been spent on it during the last 10 years.
> 
> Had that been done it would have been of very little benefit in treating Corona because it would have, quite properly, been spent on patient care at the time.
> 
> ...



Whilst I agree you cannot be fully prepared for every eventuality a property funded health service would be in a much better position with greater numbers of staff, equipment and all round ability. The lack of funding had been a political choice. It is the very first institution in the sights of any Tory government that gets elected. The worst stats on healthcare without exception come under their stewardship. So yes political points are very much up for grabs as the wilful negligent is laid bare.

Oh, and don't forget the lies they're spouting. 



Salty seadog said:


> Don't forget the lies.
> 
> Fudging the testing figures so they present a wholly dismal picture instead of the disastrously dismal truth.
> 
> ...


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The response looks well organised to me.



Sure it does.

Changing strategy mid way through the response, appealing on TV for ventilator manufacturers, testing 10x less people than Germany (and repeatedly failing promises to change that) are all signs of excellent organisation.


----------



## Salty seadog (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> As Gove said in one of the briefings, we've been buying ventilators all over the place, including from the EU.



Oh that's OK then. 

Hang on a minute, 

Oh, 

Gove said it, the oiliest of an oily bunch. Must be true.

Get a grip.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> The infection rate has almost got to R = 1 which indicates the 'curve' is flattening.



Source?

Seems contradicted by the info I've seen:





https://www.ft.com/__origami/servic...le-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=490


----------



## Pale Rider (4 Apr 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Oh that's OK then.
> 
> Hang on a minute,
> 
> ...



Gove's remark was a factual observation - that's why I was prepared to reference it.

He said we have purchased ventilators from both non EU and EU countries - which we have.

That remark was true, but he gets it, the bit about the EU buys was made in a loaded fashion.

I know calling Tory ministers liars is casually done around here, but you really ought to establish they are telling lies before you do it, not wrongly assert it afterwards.



roubaixtuesday said:


> Sure it does.
> 
> Changing strategy mid way through the response, appealing on TV for ventilator manufacturers, testing 10x less people than Germany (and repeatedly failing promises to change that) are all signs of excellent organisation.



Seemed to me they began by giving some prominence to herd immunity, although it was only ever to be part of the response.

They dropped it in less than a week, so again I wonder what harm was done in those few days when we were (partly) on the wrong track?

Better to accept the tactics needed modifying than to stick doggedly to them.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I wonder what harm was done in those few days when we were (partly) on the wrong track?



Growth has been exponential, with a doubling time of 3-4 days. 

Delaying by a week therefore means four times as many deaths at peak. 

Four times as many. 

That's the harm.


----------



## Salty seadog (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I know calling Tory ministers liars is casually done around here, but you really ought to establish they are telling lies before you do it, not wrongly assert it afterwards.



'We missed the email'

likely or not? 

This was after it was stated the UK would not be participating as we are no longer in the EU and would take our own action. 

Pants on fire.


----------



## Inertia (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Time and a place for everything.
> 
> The time to spank Johnson's arse is certainly not when he's trying to lead the fight against the virus.
> 
> The place to do it is at the ballot box.


This is the time, It’s no good months later Saying ‘ oh yeah we knew you were making a balls up but we didn’t want to upset you’. The gov has to be held to account for it’s actions, now more than ever, literal lives are on the line.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Aye, nothing like a few thousand deaths to score cheap political points.


Yeah - almost as bad as promising to ramp up the testing - more or less knowing it can't be done.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The response looks well organised to me.
> 
> In such a complicated task, keeping cock ups to a minimum is the best you can hope for.
> 
> ...




You are obviously going to be satisfied no matter what happens - that s the only feasible conclusion anyone can draw from you're posts.


----------



## winjim (4 Apr 2020)

Inertia said:


> This is the time, It’s no good months later Saying ‘ oh yeah we knew you were making a balls up but we didn’t want to upset you’. The gov has to be held to account for it’s actions, now more than ever, literal lives are on the line.


Here's one of those trying to hold them to account. Just thought she deserves a bit of kudos. A&E doctor and Labour deputy leadership candidate Dr Rosena Allin-Khan. In conversation with health minister Nadine Dorries.


View: https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1245826539960168448?s=19



View: https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1245760735898152962?s=19


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Source?



Locallyaround the world many health analysts are using ICU or internal make data within hospitals to say that. 

The data you are using as evidence of no slow down in germany is deaths which is 1 to 4 weeks out of date as it's a rolling 7 days.

It's you who is wrong in this case, the deaths is only evidence of no slow down 3-4 weeks ago. What evidence do you have of the last week that there has been no slow down of infections in germany?

Source?


----------



## MarkF (4 Apr 2020)

Deaths 17, ICU still only 25% full, more middle aged asian men arriving (they won't stop socialising), no increase in sickness in A&E medical staff, no surprise there, they are the best in the hospital. 

We'll see.


----------



## Pale Rider (4 Apr 2020)

Inertia said:


> This is the time, It’s no good months later Saying ‘ oh yeah we knew you were making a balls up but we didn’t want to upset you’. The gov has to be held to account for it’s actions, now more than ever, literal lives are on the line.



In what way do you think moaning about Boris and his team now will assist?

Quite the reverse, it's a needless diversion.

We are stuck with what we have, so we want them motivated to do the best job they can.

Plenty of time later to hang them out to dry if that's what you want to do.


----------



## Mugshot (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> In what way do you think moaning about Boris and his team now will assist?
> 
> Quite the reverse, it's a needless diversion.
> 
> ...


Just to clarify, does your not holding a government to account philosophy extend further than Tory administrations?


----------



## Inertia (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> In what way do you think moaning about Boris and his team now will assist?
> 
> Quite the reverse, it's a needless diversion.
> 
> ...


I’m not moaning. And the purpose is not to hang them out to dry.


----------



## winjim (4 Apr 2020)

Settle down, give it an hour or so and we might have a functioning opposition.


----------



## Pale Rider (4 Apr 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Just to clarify, does your not holding a government to account philosophy extend further than Tory administrations?



What part of 'right time and place' do you not understand?



Pale Rider said:


> Plenty of time later to hang them out to dry if that's what you want to do.


----------



## Levo-Lon (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> In what way do you think moaning about Boris and his team now will assist?
> 
> Quite the reverse, it's a needless diversion.
> 
> ...




If Labour were in power it would still be the Tories fault


----------



## Mugshot (4 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> Settle down, give it an hour or so and we might have a functioning opposition.


Yeah, but all they're going to do is moan, that's not an oppositions job is it? It's not like they can do anything. 
Nodding along in agreement with decisions made because you aren't personally able to change them is the way to go.


----------



## Blue Hills (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Source?
> 
> Seems contradicted by the info I've seen:
> 
> ...


Mm

Let"s see if that plummet follows the Chinese' plummet.


----------



## Mugshot (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> What part of 'right time and place' do you not understand?


What part of holding to account and speaking truth to power do you not understand?
I do understand the uncomfortable position you find yourself in with the constant barrage of lies and mistakes that this administration has made, their whole pathway to power is paved with staggering untruths, but your continued efforts to shut down conversation that exposes them to save your own embarrassment is not going to work. 
Johnson and his cronies are an utter disgrace to this country and its people.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> What part of 'right time and place' do you not understand?


Tell me what would it take for you to think " yeah actually the UK govt could have done better ? "


----------



## winjim (4 Apr 2020)

Mugshot said:


> What part of holding to account and speaking truth to power do you not understand?
> I do understand the uncomfortable position you find yourself in with the constant barrage of lies and mistakes that this administration has made, their whole pathway to power is paved with staggering untruths, but your continued efforts to shut down conversation that exposes them to save your own embarrassment is not going to work.
> Johnson and his cronies are an utter disgrace to this country and its people.


Crucially, this was the case before coronavirus, before the last election, before Johnson was even PM. People voted for them knowing all this, the pandemic has just brought it to light in an awful, horrific way.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> What evidence do you have of the last week that there has been no slow down of infections in germany?



I had no idea the comment was about Germany, and I did not say there was no evidence of a slow down - I just asked for his source. 

I agree the evidence shows there is a slowdown in Germany. I would be interested in a source making specific claims for R0, in Germany or anywhere else indeed.


----------



## Pale Rider (4 Apr 2020)

Mugshot said:


> What part of holding to account and speaking truth to power do you not understand?
> I do understand the uncomfortable position you find yourself in with the constant barrage of lies and mistakes that this administration has made, their whole pathway to power is paved with staggering untruths, but your continued efforts to shut down conversation that exposes them to save your own embarrassment is not going to work.
> Johnson and his cronies are an utter disgrace to this country and its people.



You converse away, I'm not trying to stop you.

Thanks for the concern, but backing winners doesn't embarrass me.


----------



## winjim (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> You converse away, I'm not trying to stop you.
> 
> Thanks for the concern, but backing winners doesn't embarrass me.


You haven't backed a winner. Not under the criteria that I would use to define the term.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> What part of 'right time and place' do you not understand?



What part of "Not following WHO guidance" and "insisting on Brexit ideology over ventilators" do you not understand?


----------



## Mugshot (4 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> Crucially, this was the case before coronavirus, before the last election, before Johnson was even PM. People voted for them knowing all this, the pandemic has just brought it to light in an awful, horrific way.


Absolutely. The people knew what they were getting when they voted for them, of course the lies mattered then but they had a stay of grace before the reality hit home. Now they matter in realtime and the individuals that shrugged and laughed at the blatant spinning and lying last time are now doubling down in their support. It's despicable really.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> backing winners doesn't embarrass me.



Ah, so that's how it is: "we won, you lost, those vulnerable people can just die quietly".

Now, what were you saying about keeping politics out of this?


----------



## Mugshot (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Thanks for the concern, but backing winners doesn't embarrass me.


Backing liars, charlatans and snake oil salesman that have shown an historic disregard and disdain for the very instituions and individuals that they are now lauding, whose actions during this crisis have been in the main a reaction to public opinion or driven as a result of their own previous underfunding and inaction should.


----------



## Eziemnaik (4 Apr 2020)

Meanwhile, in the first world country...
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/...as-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-top-10000.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...each-50-daily-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21M02P
No trashing of economy needed = no post austerity


----------



## Pale Rider (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Ah, so that's how it is: "we won, you lost, those vulnerable people can just die quietly".
> 
> Now, what were you saying about keeping politics out of this?



In answer to a poster who was trying to use the virus as a means to make cheap political points.



roubaixtuesday said:


> What part of "Not following WHO guidance" and "insisting on Brexit ideology over ventilators" do you not understand?



You ought to ask that of our doctors and scientists who devised our strategy.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> You ought to ask that of our doctors and scientists who devised our strategy.



We should ask scientists about putting Brexit ideology ahead of ventilators?

I think we can guess the answer. 

And we both know there were no scientists involved in the decision.


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I had no idea the comment was about Germany, and I did not say there was no evidence of a slow down - I just asked for his source.
> 
> I agree the evidence shows there is a slowdown in Germany. I would be interested in a source making specific claims for R0, in Germany or anywhere else indeed.



Unkraut's lived in Germany a long, long time. It's also interesting as little reported from abroad - this was the case for Italy where stuff said on italian tv was reported hours/days later or even inaccurately or sometimes never.

My point was often locally health officials say things that aren't attributable. Not quoted in the written media anyway, often tv sources only. We had this locally about the virus's spread vs London and other things which may look totally nuts compared to the opaque and basic figures released about specific areas. The private information sheds a different light on it.


----------



## Salty seadog (4 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> If Labour were in power it would still be the Tories fault



Correct in the terms of inherited a hollowed out health service only 2 months before. 

As for their actions we will never know.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> The private information sheds a different light on it.



Sure, if people are basing views on private info, let's hear it.


----------



## Salty seadog (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> You converse away, I'm not trying to stop you.
> 
> Thanks for the concern, but backing winners  liers doesn't embarrass me.



I corrected your typo. Your welcome.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

The further society moves away from the truth - the more it hate those that speak it .....George Orwell.


----------



## winjim (4 Apr 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> I corrected your typo. Your welcome.


3, 2, 1...


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Sure, if people are basing views on private info, let's hear it.



Going on about people not understanding exponential curves and the like? People can't read graphs? I mean really.

Private means private. You won't hear it, that's the point, maybe in 3 months or six months or a year or so if you're delving through some academic paper talking about hospital admissions and attributing the person saying it or the figures they saw for infection rates in Germany in late March 2020 you will.

If you speak german, got those skills being used and get out there and come back with some useful stuff for a change.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> You know this, you're just being deliberately obtuse.



You've completely misunderstood me. I'll leave it at that.


----------



## Pale Rider (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> We should ask scientists about putting Brexit ideology ahead of ventilators?
> 
> I think we can guess the answer.
> 
> And we both know there were no scientists involved in the decision.



If you know precisely what happened over our participation or not in an EU plan to bulk buy ventilators you know a great deal more than me.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> If you know precisely what happened over our participation or not over an EU plan to bulk buy ventilators you know a great deal more than me.



As you're now resorting to claiming to believe the "lost the email" story, it's probably time to draw a veil over your embarrassment.


----------



## Salty seadog (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> If you know precisely what happened over our participation or not in an EU plan to bulk buy ventilators you know a great deal more than me.



Well we all know about the two incompatible statements that were put out about it.


----------



## Salty seadog (4 Apr 2020)

Anyone got a longer handled shovel. Someone's having difficulty getting the soil out of the hole.


----------



## mjr (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The response looks well organised to me.


How!?!?



> Did whatever happened with that email knock us back to any great degree?


Probably. To assess, ask questions like: do we have more or less new ventilators per capita than participants?



> As Gove said in one of the briefings, we've been buying ventilators all over the place, including from the EU.


Can we buy more or less quickly if we do all the negotiation ourselves?



> There's been some problems with protective clothing, but if the demand for anything spikes significantly there will be shortages.


Have we requisitioned any factories yet? Our neighbours have.



> Our manufacturing companies have proved themselves adept at turning their hand to making stuff they don't usually make.


Really? What was it, 30 ventilators this weekend? Contrary to this government repeatedly thanking its friends like JCB and Dyson, the overwhelming majority of ventilator production is being done by existing suppliers running their capacity at 110% or more of its normal maximum, running shifts 24 hours and taking extraordinary steps to reduce stoppages with some increased costs and a lot of worker goodwill because this is literally a life-or-death effort - but most of them get fark all thanks from government and scepticism from certain people that they're actually working on ventilator parts.



> Examining the alternatives is not whataboutery, it's a valid part of assessing performance and what could be expected.
> 
> Chuck Johnson and Hancock in the Thames if you like, but there's no point in doing that unless there is or was something better to put in their place.


"Other people would have done worse" still does not mean that this group are doing well!



> The chancellor should also get an honourable mention.
> 
> Brilliant job by him and his staff to come up with two huge rescue plans in such short order.


Less great that it's failed to launch in a prompt manner, especially the stuff for self-employed, and that loads of people have been laid off. Also, government agency closures/restructurings planned for 1 April went ahead as planned, leaving loads more people without a job and no immediate prospect of being able to find another one, instead of delaying the closures and furloughing the workers.


----------



## Pale Rider (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> As you're now resorting to claiming to believe the "lost the email" story, it's probably time to draw a veil over your embarrassment.


Again, thanks for the concern but I'm not resorting to anything.

The lost email story looks more likely than some Brexit ideology conspiracy - why the need to do it?

The Brexit battle was long since won, what would the Tories lose by taking part in the plan if they thought it was the best thing to do?

Taking cock up over conspiracy is always a good maxim.


----------



## Salty seadog (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The lost email story looks more likely than some Brexit ideology conspiracy - why the need to do it?



And again you know this is gash. 

As if the EU would just send out an email and not have solid direct contact through decades long established lines. 

Oh yeah, and this again on the subject. 



Salty seadog said:


> Well we all know about the two incompatible statements that were put out about it.


----------



## Salty seadog (4 Apr 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...xit-over-breathing-in-covid-19-ventilator-row

Where is that shovel.


----------



## Dave Davenport (4 Apr 2020)

My daughter's brother in law works for a large aerospace company, they were all told to take the last week as holiday but have now been told to come back to work this coming Monday as the company make ventilators. He said out of the 300 workforce, three people are engaged in producing one small ventilator component.


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

From the Guardian.

Good morning. I’m Lucy Campbell and I’ll be bringing you all the latest UK coronavirus news throughout the day.

This morning, *Prof Neil Ferguson*, from Imperial College London and author of a report which warned of mass deaths if the UK did not introduce strict controls, said the lockdown could be relaxed in weeks – but only if Britons abide by physical distancing restrictions in the meantime.

He said a high level of coronavirus infections could last for “weeks” if people broke physical distancing rules this weekend.

He told BBC Radio 4 that the epidemic *was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days*, but said people’s behaviour was critical to determining what happens next. Asked what would happen if people flouted physical distancing rules this weekend, he said:



> That moves us to a slightly more pessimistic scenario.
> We still think things will plateau but we’ll be at quite high levels of infection for weeks and weeks rather than seeing quite a rapid decline as the type seen in China.
> We want to move to a situation where at least by the end of May that we’re able to substitute some less intensive measures, more based on technology and testing, for the complete lockdown we have now.


His warning echoes the heartfelt plea issued yesterday by the chief nurse *Ruth May* that anyone thinking of gathering outdoors when the weather is sunny this weekend should remember the two nurses, *Areema Nasreen* and *Aimee O’Rourke*, who died after contracting Covid-19. She said:


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

On what the strategy should be beyond lockdown. 

Firstly, we should have one. I've seen zero evidence of this from government yet, once again they are rapidly finding themselves following events rather than leading. 

Secondly, what should it be? Interesting article in the Graun. 

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19


----------



## tom73 (4 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Same name as London one? Would have thought it’d have a different name to avoid confusion.



Be nice if a true pioneer of nursing got a look in one Mary Seacole. But sadly old Florence soon made sure she was airbrushed from history. 
Edith Cavell would be a nice for one too she also showed true humanity.


----------



## winjim (4 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Be nice if a true pioneer of nursing got a look in one Mary Seacole. But sadly old Florence soon made sure she was airbrushed from history.
> Edith Cavell would be a nice for one too she also showed true humanity.


I'm intrigued to hear more about the dark side of Florence Nightingale. I've only ever really thought about her for her work in data visualisation.


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

Guardian article on death reports (fairly trivial points) but better analysis than I've seen elsewhere about the lag and what truer numbers are. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong

Written by three journalists, mostly relying on comments by Sheila Bird.

For those not wanting to read (figures from the Guardian):-


----------



## SpokeyDokey (4 Apr 2020)

*Mod note:*

We've already asked that members making personal attacks and sniping at other members desist from this. Unfortunately, not all members can seem to get the gist of this message and in the last 24 hours or so, some inappropriate posts have been made.

Ordinarily the thread would be closed, cleaned up and then reopened. This usually takes some time.

As this is a major current thread our preference is to keep it open and, as a by-product, leave the relevant posts in place.

We will, however, remove any member who has made inappropriate posts towards another member from this thread. Ditto with any member who posts similar going forward.

If you are not happy with a post *report it. * If you are not happy with the thoughts of another member *put them on ignore.*


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## RecordAceFromNew (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> On what the strategy should be beyond lockdown.
> 
> Firstly, we should have one. I've seen zero evidence of this from government yet, once again they are rapidly finding themselves following events rather than leading.
> 
> ...



Haven't got the faintest idea what our so called government is thinking, but I believe the obvious vision is to tread water, until a vaccine that is commonly available is found. 

As to what treading water means, Singapore's strategy is a good demonstration.Visually, it is this:






It is not rocket science, essentially it is for the government to open and close levers of restrictions, to ensure the number of active cases (in orange) requiring medical attention is a manageable figure and not overwhelming, which can be achieved if those who have recovered (blue) and those who can be discharged for isolation (yellow) are no less than the newly infected on a daily basis.

Right now our active cases have obviously gone through the roof due to the Government and their chosen scientists asleep at the helm. If and when active cases get down to a manageable level after XX,XXX have perished, the above strategy will be available.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> My daughter's brother in law works for a large aerospace company, they were all told to take the last week as holiday but have now been told to come back to work this coming Monday as the company make ventilators. He said out of the 300 workforce, three people are engaged in producing one small ventilator component.


Yes I've been posting all week that all and sundry are pulling workers into work to "work on the ventilator s"

I have no proof they aren't genuine - but personally I have my doubts .....


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Be nice if a true pioneer of nursing got a look in one Mary Seacole. But sadly old Florence soon made sure she was airbrushed from history.
> Edith Cavell would be a nice for one too she also showed true humanity.



I have stayed at Edith Cavell youth hostel near Jasper, British Columbia, Ca.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (4 Apr 2020)

On a more positive note, and that there is indeed more than a glimmer of hope at the end of this tunnel, Johnson and Johnson, the world's largest pharmaceutical company, has decided to deliver COVID-19 vaccines worldwide on a non-profit basis when it is ready. They believe they have highly promising candidates in the pipeline, and they have committed half a billion US$ on the development, with another half a billion matched by the US government.

What is important, is that the decision will put tremendous moral pressure on any other significant competing provider to provide vaccines on the same basis, if not already.

Sources: here and here.


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Haven't got the faintest idea what our so called government is thinking, but I believe the obvious vision is to tread water, until a vaccine that is commonly available is found.
> 
> As to what treading water means, Singapore's strategy is a good demonstration.Visually, it is this:



As said previously and I agree with Costello's point and other ones said similarly elsewhere, all people broadly agree on the same strategy even though a lot of people are shouting and pointing fingers and in some cases loudly proclaiming that they don't agree.

The only exceptions to this are people that think that a vaccine will disappear by some deus ex machina - the 1-peakers, the ones that think it'll go in summer, the ones who think a vaccine will be here in a couple of months, the ones that think that hydroxychloroquine can be taken by a vast number of people (sadly, somewhat unlikely) let alone work and have time to show it'll work. Let's all hope they are right.

It's not clear to me that singapore doesn't have a mild lockdown with more stringent social distancing. I know they don't want to call it that, but an authoritarian government probably wouldn't like to call it that would they.


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> On a more positive note, and that there is indeed more than a glimmer of hope at the end of this tunnel, Johnson and Johnson, the world's largest pharmaceutical company, has decided to deliver COVID-19 vaccines worldwide on a non-profit basis when it is ready. They believe they have highly promising candidates in the pipeline, and they have committed half a billion US$ on the development, with another half a billion matched by the US government.
> 
> What is important, is that the decision will put tremendous moral pressure on any other significant competing provider to provide vaccines on the same basis, if not already.
> 
> Sources: here and here.



Is this a real world consideration in the western world? They'll still be the most almighty jostling, queue jumping, export bans, nastiness, hard choices and all that whatever price the vaccine is. To western countries the price of the flu vaccine I would be amazed if the flu vaccine is prohibitively expensive. It'll be pay at any price (likely to be a reasonable one) and that you won't be able to get enough in. 

In a year or so it may matter a great deal in the developing world of which I am glad, although there's very very little talk of the millions that could die in the third world on this thread.


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Be nice if a true pioneer of nursing got a look in one Mary Seacole. But sadly old Florence soon made sure she was airbrushed from history.
> Edith Cavell would be a nice for one too she also showed true humanity.



I'm sure, unfortunately, that some local names of nurses, health care assistants, advisors, doctors, paramedics, gps, care workers and other staff can be thought up. A mere four candidates who died named yesterday unfortunately.


----------



## tom73 (4 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> I'm intrigued to hear more about the dark side of Florence Nightingale. I've only ever really thought about her for her work in data visualisation.



Yes she did good but had many issues. She sistamatialy openly attacked Mary Seacole throughout the war, after it and her role in it. She said she ran nothing more than a brothel. She blocked her at every turn. Refused to let her be one of her Nurse's even though she had experience and had travel all over the world , stopped her getting any supplies or money. So she funded her own travel opened her own hospital The troops however loved Mary and her work she become known as "mother Seacole". Florence nursed well away from action. Mary however was on the front line often riding out on horse back risking it all to treat troops on the battle field. Something we'd now call pre hospital care. 

So popular was she that Queen Victoria felt she needed to meet her. Florence soon put pay to that making it clear that Mary's role noting more than a brothel keeper and she was not worthy of a meeting. 

She did much for Nursing however she was not one for personal care very much Doctor, Nurse know's best. Only one way only her way. 
she was massively outspoken about making Nursing a profession and having a register. Only the nice respectable ladies could be a Nurse.
The main and only problem Florence had was Mary was black. It's only now that Mary is getting the respect she is well overdue. 

“….and the grateful words and smile which rewarded me for binding up a wound or giving a cooling drink was a pleasure worth risking life for at any time.” Mary Seacole

Wonderful Adventures of Mrs Seacole in Many Lands her autobiography is a good read.


----------



## tom73 (4 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm sure, unfortunately, that some local names of nurses, health care assistants, advisors, doctors, paramedics, gps, care workers and other staff can be thought up. A mere four candidates who died named yesterday unfortunately.



Very true but think that would be too political.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Be nice if a true pioneer of nursing got a look in one Mary Seacole. But sadly old Florence soon made sure she was airbrushed from history.
> Edith Cavell would be a nice for one too she also showed true humanity.


There was a petition to name one of the new field hospitals NHS Seacole.


----------



## tom73 (4 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> There was a petition to name one of the new field hospitals NHS Seacole.



The Birmingham one I believe


----------



## Mugshot (4 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Be nice if a true pioneer of nursing got a look in one Mary Seacole. But sadly old Florence soon made sure she was airbrushed from history.
> Edith Cavell would be a nice for one too she also showed true humanity.





winjim said:


> I'm intrigued to hear more about the dark side of Florence Nightingale. I've only ever really thought about her for her work in data visualisation.


GAH!!!!! Can't one of you two choose a different Avatar?


----------



## Eziemnaik (4 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Haven't got the faintest idea what our so called government is thinking, but I believe the obvious vision is to tread water, until a vaccine that is commonly available is found.
> 
> As to what treading water means, Singapore's strategy is a good demonstration.Visually, it is this:
> 
> ...


Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, China (whatever controversy regarding recent numbers) are basically like 100 years ahead of the west in their response.
When it is all settled and total lockdown of Europe has produced more deaths and economic pain we can only hope people responsible for it will be accounted for it


----------



## Rocky (4 Apr 2020)

Mugshot said:


> GAH!!!!! Can't one of you two choose a different Avatar?


Yes!! Us old people get confused easily 😂😂


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> If you know precisely what happened over our participation or not in an EU plan to bulk buy ventilators you know a great deal more than me.



We opted not join it as we are leaving the EU


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> The Birmingham one I believe


Yes, the NEC - https://www.change.org/p/the-bank-o...Kg14AAXicyyvNyQEABF8BvCG5UZhIHnEEqU2Rog0sMoM=


​


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Apr 2020)

Has this been posted, an updated analysis of the situation in the USA as if 31st March?


View: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9


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## Rocky (4 Apr 2020)

I’m just going to break the lockdown to set fire to the new 5G mast round the corner. Amanda Holden says it causes Covid19.


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## Inertia (4 Apr 2020)

I don't know if this was posted before but I thought this was a pretty amazing and quite positive story. A German 'flying hospital' was sent to Italy to help






https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/02/germ...alys-hardest-hit-coronavirus-region-12499518/


----------



## winjim (4 Apr 2020)

Mugshot said:


> GAH!!!!! Can't one of you two choose a different Avatar?


Stay at home, Mugshot, and maybe one of us will.


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## tom73 (4 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Yes!! Us old people get confused easily 😂😂


 Not a problem unless you forgot when to use the toilet


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 Apr 2020)

Inertia said:


> I don't know if this was posted before but I thought this was a pretty amazing and quite positive story. A German 'flying hospital' was sent to Italy to help
> View attachment 512531
> 
> 
> https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/02/germ...alys-hardest-hit-coronavirus-region-12499518/


I'd have a quick word with the photo editor and ask him why the plane has a Swiss flag emblazoned on its tail - that exterior photo of the plane is of a Swiss Rega one, which serves Switzerland and Liechtenstein. That's a different European cooperation.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Apr 2020)

In today’s Metro

NHS England said a five-year-old child is among 637 people who tested positive for Covid-19 and have died, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in English hospitals to 3,939.

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/04/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-4000-708-die-12508338/?ito=cbshare


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## Eziemnaik (4 Apr 2020)

In other new USA is breaking it's own sanctions...
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21L243?__twitter_impression=true


----------



## Pat "5mph" (4 Apr 2020)

Meanwhile in Glasgow:
yesterday, for the first time since I started my radiotherapy sessions 2 weeks ago, the nurses had masks on.
Diplomatically, the nurses said it was a new policy in view of the virus.
I said, well, everybody knows you didn't have them to wear them: they confirmed this, still very diplomatically, of course.
News of 13 deaths in a Glasgow care home, suspected corona virus.


----------



## BoldonLad (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The source is raw data form the government.


No idea if this is true, but, according to online Guardian, today, daily figures for deaths are not, the number who actually died in last 24 hours, some of the deaths may have occurred days or even weeks earlier. Guardian claims that no-one knows the daily deaths figure. IF this is true, aren’t graphs meaningless?


----------



## numbnuts (4 Apr 2020)

Meanwhile in Dover
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-52167277 
Poor people never got the memo


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> No idea if this is true, but, according to online Guardian, today, daily figures for deaths are not, the number who actually died in last 24 hours, some of the deaths may have occurred days or even weeks earlier. Guardian claims that no-one knows the daily deaths figure. IF this is true, aren’t graphs meaningless?



No, they're not "meaningless". They just should not be over interpreted.


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> No idea if this is true, but, according to online Guardian, today, daily figures for deaths are not, the number who actually died in last 24 hours, some of the deaths may have occurred days or even weeks earlier. Guardian claims that no-one knows the daily deaths figure. IF this is true, aren’t graphs meaningless?



Deaths are reported in batches sometimes.

If you're interested what it might mean in a more analytical way see this post https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5940600 with a graphic.


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## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> No idea if this is true, but, according to online Guardian, today, daily figures for deaths are not, the number who actually died in last 24 hours, some of the deaths may have occurred days or even weeks earlier. Guardian claims that no-one knows the daily deaths figure. IF this is true, aren’t graphs meaningless?


A single days figures are more or less meaningless - some hospitals will miss the cut off point - others may not have staff or systems available to run reports to get the stats - especially of a weekend. Also as hospitals hit capacity the number of deaths in hospital will hit an artificial ceiling. 

but in general a hospital reporting late deceased cases - won't skew the overall trend.


----------



## BoldonLad (4 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> A single days figures are more or less meaningless - some hospitals will miss the cut off point - others may not have staff or systems available to run reports to get the stats - especially of a weekend. Also as hospitals hit capacity the number of deaths in hospital will hit an artificial ceiling.
> 
> but in general a hospital reporting late deceased cases - won't skew the overall trend.


If you say so, but, I don’t see it. It may not change the total, but, it will, surely, change the shape of the graph? Isn’t that what we are looking for, a levelling off of deaths and/or infections. Since infections figure is already screwed, since it is “self declared”, IMHO the graphs would be better employed as toilet paper.


----------



## Unkraut (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Source? [The infection rate has almost got to R = 1 which indicates the 'curve' is flattening.]
> 
> Seems contradicted by the info I've seen:


Prof Wieler during a Robert Koch institute briefing on the current situation. He is president of the institute and does the updates on the situation. He was very careful not to give the impression the current measures could be relaxed, but a trend over the last few days is clearly discernible giving at least some grounds for qualified optimism. The rate of doubling of infection has gone up from 3 days to 9 days, but 14 days is the target of the measures. The rate of infection of course needs to get below 1 before the pandemic could be said to be under control.

The federal government and state governments will meet on the 14th April, by which time the trend will be clear. Only then will it be possible to consider relaxing the lockdown from 20th April before which it remains in place. They keep asking the press not to speculate on this because until then no-one knows.


----------



## Rusty Nails (4 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> If you say so, but, I don’t see it. It may not change the total, but, it will, surely, change the shape of the graph? Isn’t that what we are looking for, a levelling off of deaths and/or infections. Since infections figure is already screwed, since it is “self declared”, IMHO the graphs would be better employed as toilet paper.



If you are looking for meaningful daily changes to the rates of death/infections then you will be disappointed. Changes will be more accurately measured over a rolling period by which time the daily errors in over/under reporting will smooth themselves out.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> If you say so, but, I don’t see it. It may not change the total, but, it will, surely, change the shape of the graph? Isn’t that what we are looking for, a levelling off of deaths and/or infections. Since infections figure is already screwed, since it is “self declared”, IMHO the graphs would be better employed as toilet paper.


it would change the shape of the graph on a given day.
very approx last weekend we were reporting 150 deaths per day - now we are reporting 700 per day - so sadly you can see which way it is going. if by next weekend were are reporting 200 - 250 - per day you can read something into that.

Personally I have stopped looking at infections - due to low level of testing in relative terms.


----------



## cookiemonster (4 Apr 2020)

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...37/mask-or-not-mask-who-makes-u-turn-while-us

Thought this might be interesting re mask use.


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...37/mask-or-not-mask-who-makes-u-turn-while-us
> 
> Thought this might be interesting re mask use.



I don't believe the article is accurate. It says the Czech republic and Slovakia 'bucked' the trend in wearing masks. This is simply nonsense. It's not even wrong. Masks have been extremely widely worn in Italy for a very substantial amount of time, even though it wasn't government advice or mandated. There is large and hysterical commentary in Italy along the lines of you're likely to die unless you wear a mask if you go outside, although curiously enough the idea of wearing visors in Italy is widely scoffed at. Why the virus has run wildly out of control in Italy despite many lockdowns and obsessive mask wearing in public is a red hot debate that no one really knows the answer to.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

NHS England’s national medical director Stephen Powis quoted by Graun at today's press conference:



> It is too early to outline what the exit strategy will be – the priority and critical objective now is to reduce transmission in order to get on top of it. Only then can we discuss what the next steps are



This really grinds my gears!

How can we possibly be ready for what comes next if we don't even discuss it?

Surely we should be looking at the options, discussing as a nation the pros and cons, and putting in place plans to implement whatever we decide to do?


----------



## tom73 (4 Apr 2020)

oh maybe he's just telling us as it is. The press keep asking the question the more talk of maybe we can lesson the lockdown. 
Just leads to more people thinking it's ok to push things that little bit more. 
it's simple what come's next more people start to not play by the rules the more people die. 
Until the data show's the heat is starting to go and it's not just a one off. 
Then we can talk about what to do next. Take the eye of ball now and it will get even worse.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

With deaths still sadly rising - why are people discussing ending the lockdown ?

As far as I can tell there is no evidence that the lockdown has worked yet. Look how long Italy has been in lockdown.


----------



## slowmotion (4 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> They keep asking the press not to speculate on this because until then no-one knows.



Good luck with that round here.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> With deaths still sadly rising - why are people discussing ending the lockdown ?



Whatever we do next, it will involve loss of civil liberties, further economic damage and further loss of life. 

I think it's really important there is both a proper debate over the right balance, and time to prepare professionally for it. 

Sure, it'll be wrong and need changing, but much better that than a policy which literally seems to be to hope it'll turn out ok.

The main lesson for us so far is that we wasted the time we had to plan and prepare. Let's not do that again.


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> With deaths still sadly rising - why are people discussing ending the lockdown ?
> 
> As far as I can tell there is no evidence that the lockdown has worked yet. Look how long Italy has been in lockdown.



Because there are loads of people out there that think it'll be over in a couple of weeks. 

TV journalists on national news are a highly mobile, affluent bunch of people. In some senses they are good people to get a sense of what's going on, in other senses it'd be the last bunch of people on earth you'd want reporting on some matters e.g. care homes or just hopelessly out of touch with reality or sometimes go into a lot of riskier places so think less about the risk/consequences for the public.


----------



## Racing roadkill (4 Apr 2020)

It’s nice ( well as nice as it can be ) to see that the stats are showing a levelling ( again ). Given the incubation period of this thing, this shows ( again ) that the less draconian lockdown steps were indeed adequate, and this current situation is unwarranted in it’s extremity. There are an increasing number of experts who are seeing it that way as well. Let’s hope the powers that be listen to them.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> There are an increasing number of experts who are seeing it that way as well.



In which case, you will be able to provide links to them.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> the stats are showing a levelling ( again ).



In which case you will be able to provide a link to said stats, and analysis of them showing this "leveling"


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Whatever we do next, it will involve loss of civil liberties, further economic damage and further loss of life.
> 
> I think it's really important there is both a proper debate over the right balance, and time to prepare professionally for it.
> 
> ...


In that context I agree - but given how long Italy has been in a tighter lockdown - and are still in the mire - I don't see how we can be anywhere near the other side.
End of May at the very earliest IMO.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> It’s nice ( well as nice as it can be ) to see that the stats are showing a levelling ( again ). Given the incubation period of this thing, this shows ( again ) that the less draconian lockdown steps were indeed adequate, and this current situation is unwarranted in it’s extremity. There are an increasing number of experts who are seeing it that way as well. Let’s hope the powers that be listen to them.



I think you are confusing experts with people who think that " some people will die - so be it."

For me the less people that die the better.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> In that context I agree - but given how long Italy has been in a tighter lockdown - and are still in the mire - I don't see how we can be anywhere near the other side.
> End of May at the very earliest IMO.



Agree


----------



## Eziemnaik (4 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> In that context I agree - but given how long Italy has been in a tighter lockdown - and are still in the mire - I don't see how we can be anywhere near the other side.
> End of May at the very earliest IMO.


And yet there are countries without tight lockdown which are managing CV spread

In other news, continuing with less fortunate photo selection by mass media


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## Buck (4 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> How can we possibly be ready for what comes next if we don't even discuss it?
> 
> Surely we should be looking at the options, discussing as a nation the pros and cons, and putting in place plans to implement whatever we decide to do?



Whilst I agree with your sentiment re being ready for what comes next, it is the role of government to decide on these (hopefully based on evidence and scientific knowledge) and inform the nation, not for all of us to debate and discuss to inform that decision and what we do next (apologies if I’ve misunderstood your comment)

They make the decision, provide clear guidance and we do what is asked.


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## Buck (4 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> It’s nice ( well as nice as it can be ) to see that the stats are showing a levelling ( again ). Given the incubation period of this thing, this shows ( again ) that the less draconian lockdown steps were indeed adequate, and this current situation is unwarranted in it’s extremity. There are an increasing number of experts who are seeing it that way as well. Let’s hope the powers that be listen to them.



Unfortunately, I don’t think you are right. I would go as far as saying the current lockdown is more than warranted and may, just may, help turn the tide but we have many more deaths to go before we can even begin to see a real downturn and a warranted easing of the current lockdown.


----------



## winjim (4 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> It’s nice ( well as nice as it can be ) to see that the stats are showing a levelling ( again ). Given the incubation period of this thing, this shows ( again ) that the less draconian lockdown steps were indeed adequate, and this current situation is unwarranted in it’s extremity. There are an increasing number of experts who are seeing it that way as well. Let’s hope the powers that be listen to them.


I thought you said they were fiddling the stats.


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## Eziemnaik (4 Apr 2020)

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...-19-loan-latest/amp?__twitter_impression=true
Why is it relevant? RBS led Global Restructuring Group was famous for vulture takeovers of financially troubled SME and fleecing of thousands of viable businesses


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## Mugshot (4 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> Stay at home, Mugshot, and maybe one of us will.


Can't, I'm a key worker


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## pawl (4 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Not a problem unless you forgot when to use the toilet




What’s a toilet💦💦💦💦


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## MarkF (4 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think you are confusing experts with people who think that " some people will die - so be it."
> 
> For me the less people that die the better.



Surely that depends on a lot of variables? We don't yet know the deaths, past & future, that could be attributed to the lockdown, we don't even know how long the lockdown will last, or what we are going to do after it.


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## Rusty Nails (4 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> I thought you said they were fiddling the stats.



I think It's a case of having a theory that he believes in and is happy to interpret any evidence in a way that supports his belief.


----------



## nickyboy (4 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Surely that depends on a lot of variables? We don't yet know the deaths, past & future, that could be attributed to the lockdown, we don't even know how long the lockdown will last, or what we are going to do after it.


Unfortunately lockdowns can only be managed by looking forwards and their efficacy can only be determined by looking backwards. 

Really we can criticise the government as much as we like but it makes no difference. We are all in the same boat and it's incumbent on all to make the best of what we have. Only after the pandemic has subsided can the assessment start. Until then there is too much still to play for

Hence my focus not on political point scoring in this thread but on trying to achieve the best possible result in the real world. Be that bollocking cyclists for riding in groups, creating threads in Cafe to remind folk about social distancing or whatever


----------



## IaninSheffield (4 Apr 2020)

Not sure whether levity is appropriate in this thread, but perhaps this might be slid in under the banner of 'satire'?
Or asking us to take a step back when interpreting visual representations of data?


----------



## Wobblers (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The response looks well organised to me.
> 
> In such a complicated task, keeping cock ups to a minimum is the best you can hope for.
> 
> ...



Government policy has been contrary to the opinion of epidemiologists from the off. That is not "cock-up", that is systematic incompetence. These "problems" in PPE, as you put it, were predicted before the event. It was clear from the experience of Wuhan that PPE shortages would be a major issue. Two months ago! That's two months squandered, when we could - should - have been making preparations. Then Italy - it was quite obvious that our close contact with continental Europe meant that a major outbreak in the UK was only a matter of time, still nothing was done to procure extra stocks of PPE, or respirators, or ramp up the availability of testing kits or the reagents and other components needed for the required level of testing within the population. We still have shortages of all these - and there seems to be little prospect of any improvement for weeks (hopefully) if not months (more likely). This is not an "organised response".

You , in saying that others would do worse than Johnson & co, are trying to deflect from the fact that the government's performance has been lacking. That is the very definition of whataboutery. I want them to do better. We need them to do better. This is not a political issue. But trying to shut down debate on how we can do better very much is


----------



## Wobblers (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> What part of 'right time and place' do you not understand?



The time and place to prevent a government (of any political make up) going down a potentially extremely destructive path is now. It is also an essential part of any democracy.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Surely that depends on a lot of variables? We don't yet know the deaths, past & future, that could be attributed to the lockdown, we don't even know how long the lockdown will last, or what we are going to do after it.


Thought that was more or less what I said.


----------



## nickyboy (4 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> The time and place to prevent a government (of any political make up) going down a potentially extremely destructive path is now. It is also an essential part of any democracy.


I agree that it's part of any democracy to hold its government to account
I disagree that now is the right time in that I cannot envisage a mechanism to effect change in policy. I'm at a point where it feels like we are all in the same boat whether we like it or not and it's incumbent on us all to effect the best result

Of course when the dust settles this situation completely changes


----------



## Inertia (4 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'd have a quick word with the photo editor and ask him why the plane has a Swiss flag emblazoned on its tail - that exterior photo of the plane is of a Swiss Rega one, which serves Switzerland and Liechtenstein. That's a different European cooperation.


Yeah, I did think notice that but I was more impressed by the interior shots which I was sure were accurate. Otherwise, it did look a bit tardis-like. They are both impressive pieces of kit regardless.


----------



## Wobblers (4 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> You ought to ask that of our doctors and scientists who devised our strategy.



Yes, I think it is time that this aspect of our strategy was examined.

It has been very clear, from the experience in Wuhan that a swift lockdown acts to rapidly reduce transmission rate and therefore casualties in any CV-19 outbreak. Only a fool would deny that - and Whitty and Vallance aren't fools. I have little doubt that they presented that evidence to the government. But the fact is that this is not a scientific decision, but a political decision. It has to be. I suspect that the government took the opinion that the economic consequences of such a course would be undesirable (to say the least) and decided that this was an unwise course. This is not something I condemn them for - given the damage now being wrought to many peoples' livelihoods it is perfectly sensible - *if* you have a reasonable alternative strategy.

So the question becomes "What is a reasonable alternative - and did the UK follow it?" The experience of China, HK, Taiwan and South Korea have shown that with mass testing and contact tracing, coronavirus transmission can be very effectively curtailed. We didn't follow that strategy either. Why I'm not sure - perhaps we'll never know. Perhaps the people advising the government understood that we couldn't ramp up testing to the degree required. 

Instead, we chose what was in all but name a gamble: that we could shield those who are most vulnerable and let the epidemic burn through the UK to attain herd immunity, hoping its progress would be sufficiently slow that the resources of the NHS wouldn't be overwhelmed. This strategy ignored the data showing the CV-19 was a highly contagious disease capable of spreading very rapidly through a vulnerable population. An overwhelmed NHS and mass deaths were all but inevitable.

Johnson, to his credit, changed course once credible modelling data was produced showing his course would mean hundreds of thousands of deaths (though it still took a full week after Ferguson's study was published for a full lockdown to be implemented). What I do most definitely criticise Johnson for is the lack of any exit strategy. There are no plans over what to do after lockdown. We can't go with this lockdown for long. At the moment, we have no strategy to prevent a second peak once restrictions are relaxed - and there will be one. The one strategy we know works is the mass testing, quarantine and contact testing done by China, S. Korea and Taiwan. We have only a few weeks to implement this, time is desperately short, but we're seeing nothing of substance emerging from government. As things stand, I fear that the most likely outcome is that we'll experience _both_ the economic damage of the lockdown, coupled with the mass deaths of a resurgent epidemic thereafter.

This is not politics. This is beyond politics. I want Johnson to get a grip and a strategy, and stop this directionless thrashing around. There is far too much at stake to descend into party politics. We need action from the Johnson government. Not promises that can't be met. Do you not understand that?


----------



## mjr (4 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I have stayed at Edith Cavell youth hostel near Jasper, British Columbia, Ca.


I've ridden the Edith Cavell cycle route. https://www.greenpilgrimageeurope.net/norwich.html


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

And true mass testing is only possible with antibody kits, which most people on this thread and our government are phobic towards.

So there are no solutions, effectively, open to the UK government, aside from a tiny number of PCR tests and contact tracing to stop moderate putbreaks in local areas where hundreds die.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> And true mass testing is only possible with antibody kits, which most people on this thread and our government are phobic towards.
> 
> So there are no solutions, effectively, open to the UK government, aside from a tiny number of PCR tests and contact tracing to stop moderate putbreaks in local areas where hundreds die.



Who on the thread is phobic to anti body tests? Must have been absent when that discussion happened in the thread.


----------



## DaveReading (4 Apr 2020)

The "strategy", as far as I can discern, is a series of progressive relaxations and re-tightenings of the lockdown such that the number of cases at any time is just within the capacity of the NHS to treat. The "exit" from that will be once enough of the population has contracted the virus to provide herd immunity or, if that takes an extended length of time, to hope that a vaccine becomes available.

What could possibly go wrong ? It's hard to know where to start.


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

Trump



> There will be a lot of death


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> Yes, I think it is time that this aspect of our strategy was examined.
> 
> It has been very clear, from the experience in Wuhan that a swift lockdown acts to rapidly reduce transmission rate and therefore casualties in any CV-19 outbreak. Only a fool would deny that - and Whitty and Vallance aren't fools. I have little doubt that they presented that evidence to the government. But the fact is that this is not a scientific decision, but a political decision. It has to be. I suspect that the government took the opinion that the economic consequences of such a course would be undesirable (to say the least) and decided that this was an unwise course. This is not something I condemn them for - given the damage now being wrought to many peoples' livelihoods it is perfectly sensible - *if* you have a reasonable alternative strategy.
> 
> ...



Very well put. We need to decide, plan, and prepare now, urgently and at speed, for what to do next.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Apr 2020)

Maybe it is time to panic;-

• There were signs of a slight drop in public confidence in the government’s handling of the pandemic. An Opinium poll for the _Observer_ found that approval of the government’s handling dropped from a net approval of +42% last week to +23% this week.

Thats quite big drop - and when the daily telegraph turn on the tories - you know they have it pretty much wrong.


----------



## marinyork (4 Apr 2020)

Another rather depressing story if true.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-offer-of-400000-covid-19-testing-kits-a-week

Buy the things. If they don't work bin them or send them back ffs.


----------



## mjr (4 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I disagree that now is the right time in that I cannot envisage a mechanism to effect change in policy. I'm at a point where it feels like we are all in the same boat whether we like it or not and it's incumbent on us all to effect the best result


It's quite simple really: you flame them to a well done crisp and this load of spineless weather-watchers U turn faster than leaves in a breeze, led by the Prime Minister, Diana Ditch.


----------



## nickyboy (4 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> It's quite simple really: you flame them to a well done crisp and this load of spineless weather-watchers U turn faster than leaves in a breeze, led by the Prime Minister, Diana Ditch.


I'm sorry, I can't understand the stream of consciousness you're posting


----------



## Buck (4 Apr 2020)

DaveReading said:


> The "strategy", as far as I can discern, is a series of progressive relaxations and re-tightenings of the lockdown such that the number of cases at any time is just within the capacity of the NHS to treat. The "exit" from that will be once enough of the population has contracted the virus to provide herd immunity or, if that takes an extended length of time, to hope that a vaccine becomes available.
> 
> What could possibly go wrong ? It's hard to know where to start.


Is there an alternative strategy?

I can only think that this is their plan but they need to keep the public onboard otherwise there will be a peak of infections and those requiring hospital treatment beyond the capacity we have in the NHS.


----------



## Unkraut (5 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> The experience of China, HK, Taiwan and South Korea have shown that with mass testing and contact tracing, coronavirus transmission can be very effectively curtailed. We didn't follow that strategy either. Why I'm not sure - perhaps we'll never know.


I think the reason is that the UK simply doesn't have the capacity to do large-scale testing. I don't think any western country did as the outbreak got underway. _All_ are short of safety equipment and intensive care for this kind of pandemic. The difference is that some have taken note of the small period of time before the virus seriously spread to at least try to start making up for the shortages. Coordinate a response. Britain (and the US) didn't and so a heavier lockdown possibly for longer is the result. Unfortunately the increases in resources needed for mass testing cannot be achieved quickly, so it will take time for that to be a viable strategy.


----------



## ozboz (5 Apr 2020)

I have learned not long ago that Lambeth Council have closed a park apparently 3000 people over the course of Saturday have flaunted the gov wishes to stay at home , this and anymore reports over the weekend may force the Gov’s hand into further movement restrictions ,


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## Pale Rider (5 Apr 2020)

ozboz said:


> I have learned not long ago that Lambeth Council have closed a park apparently 3000 people over the course of Saturday have flaunted the gov wishes to stay at home , this and anymore reports over the weekend may force the Gov’s hand into further movement restrictions ,



Brockwell Park closed today after 3,000 pitched up there on Saturday.

Seems to me stricter measures are looking likely.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...ondon-lockdown-lambeth-sunshine-a4407186.html


----------



## Archie_tect (5 Apr 2020)

Undercover surveillance measures have been put in place... even dogs with binoculars:


----------



## Eziemnaik (5 Apr 2020)

Some top medical advice from an expert...
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1246557500234661900
Ketamine man


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (5 Apr 2020)

I hope when this is all over, the sheer grasping greed of footballers is addressed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52168692



> The Professional Footballers' Association says proposals for a 30% pay cut for Premier League players would be "detrimental to our NHS".


----------



## Racing roadkill (5 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> I thought you said they were fiddling the stats.


They are, it hasn’t worked. I know I really don’t rate the daily mail, and apologies for the link, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...onavirus-says-Britains-lockdown-gone-far.html


----------



## Racing roadkill (5 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I think It's a case of having a theory that he believes in and is happy to interpret any evidence in a way that supports his belief.


Not just my belief. Apologies for the Mail link in my previous reply, but hallelujah, a real proper expert seems to agree with me, and in Sweden as well, which I’ve previously said is the place we need to be watching.


----------



## Tanis8472 (5 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Another rather depressing story if true.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-offer-of-400000-covid-19-testing-kits-a-week
> 
> Buy the things. If they don't work bin them or send them back ffs.



God, we've got a right bunch of clowns in gov. And that's putting it extremely lightly


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I hope when this is all over, the sheer grasping greed of footballers is addressed.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52168692



Central contacted English Cricket players must not give stuff about the NHS then.
They have volunteered to take a pay cut. Even the Women and they get a lot less than the men.


----------



## vickster (5 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I hope when this is all over, the sheer grasping greed of footballers is addressed.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52168692


This article gives a different spin though. Players want to know that the money is doing something worthwhile and not just going into the black hole of club finances
Danny Rose says no problem with Premier League players giving up wages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52163997


----------



## Low Gear Guy (5 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> This article gives a different spin though. Players want to know that the money is doing something worthwhile and not just going into the black hole of club finances
> Danny Rose says no problem with Premier League players giving up wages
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52163997


Is there anything stopping them making a large donation to charity? Most charities will be experiencing a large drop in income because of cancelled sponsored events and closed shops.


----------



## vickster (5 Apr 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Is there anything stopping them making a large donation to charity? Most charities will be experiencing a large drop in income because of cancelled sponsored events and closed shops.


Is that not potentially what they are proposing?


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Is there anything stopping them making a large donation to charity? Most charities will be experiencing a large drop in income because of cancelled sponsored events and closed shops.


No but they don't. 
Maybe they can donate to the National Emergencies Trust Coronavirus appeal if they are so worried or that principled. 
Many Charities are really not going to get though this. Small local ones are really in need now our local hospice for example are losing 2 grand a week. At the other end of the scale Marie Curie are 1.2M down each month. One of the top earning shops loss of income each month is equal to 163 home visits.


----------



## vickster (5 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> No but they don't.
> Maybe they can donate to the National Emergencies Trust Coronavirus appeal if they are so worried or that principled.
> Many Charities are really not going to get though this. Small local ones are really in need now our local hospice for example are losing 2 grand a week. At the other end of the scale Marie Curie are 1.2M down each month. One of the top earning shops loss of income each month is equal to 163 home visits.


How do you know they haven’t already?


----------



## MarkF (5 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Unfortunately lockdowns can only be managed by looking forwards and their efficacy can only be determined by looking backwards.
> 
> Really we can criticise the government as much as we like but it makes no difference. We are all in the same boat and it's incumbent on all to make the best of what we have. Only after the pandemic has subsided can the assessment start. Until then there is too much still to play for



I could be pursuaded that what we are doing/following is the least worst option. But we've so little future information to go on, whilst being assailed with daily death figures but being given very little information on the lockdowns present and future societal cost.

I can't believe these figures, how can gloves cost 14p? A single use apron £2.50? I'd have guessed an apron cost less than 5p. I am getting through £50+ worth of gear a shift, the medical staff a huge amount more!


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> How do you know they haven’t already?


A few have but the fact that they are pissing about and not just gone "right lads let's do this" without an official line say's it all. 
Plus they don't have a great record on questioning wage they get then the clubs expect the tax payer.
To pay for the staff which without them they can't even play is not a great look.


----------



## vickster (5 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> A few have but the fact that they are pissing about and not just gone "right lads let's do this" without an official line say's it all.
> Plus they don't have a great record on questioning wage they get then the clubs expect the tax payer.
> To pay for the staff which without them they can't even play is not a great look.


Surely the premiership clubs who make millions in profit every year could pay the non playing staff and not expect the government to do so? That’s not down to the players who are also employees but the multi millionaire or billlionaire owners who are the employers...


----------



## MarkF (5 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> A few have but the fact that they are pissing about and not just gone "right lads let's do this" without an official line say's it all.
> Plus they don't have a great record on questioning wage they get then the clubs expect the tax payer.
> To pay for the staff which without them they can't even play is not a great look.



I'd imagine, as young men, these PL players will have monthly outgoings commensurate with their salaries. I think it's just noise and the current attention unwarranted and unfair.


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Surely the premiership clubs who make millions in profit every year could pay the non playing staff and not expect the government to do so? That’s not down to the players who are also employees but the multi millionaire or billlionaire owners who are the employers...



That's the point they are all employed by the same employer one rule for one and a different one for another.
But yet players see that staff are being laid off but still not just got on with it.


----------



## vickster (5 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's the point they are all employed by the same employer one rule for one and a different one for another.
> But yet players see that staff are being laid off but still not just got on with it.


I just think it’s up to their employer to make the decisions, preferably in consultation with their employees. That’s what my employer is doing for perm staff.
It’s not down to the employees to make the decisions. Criticise the clubs not the players 
They can make their own decisions about charitable donations, volunteering whatever, like the rest of us. Just we are able to do it without the criticism of the press, the Government, Internet forums....


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> I'd imagine, as young men, these PL players will have monthly outgoings commensurate with their salaries. I think it's just noise and the current attention unwarranted and unfair.



Oh poor them just like many other young men in the current situation they will have make saving accordingly.


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> I just think it’s up to their employer to make the decisions, preferably in consultation with their employees. That’s what my employer is doing for perm staff.
> It’s not down to the employees to make the decisions. Criticise the clubs not the players
> They can make their own decisions about charitable donations, volunteering whatever, like the rest of us. Just we are able to do it without the criticism of the press, the Government, Internet forums....



Oh yes like that happens many employers no longer know what working with employees is anymore.


----------



## vickster (5 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Oh yes like that happens many employers no longer know what working with employees is anymore.


Well that’s exactly what my employer is doing, weekly webinars by UK CEO and frequent email communications, I can’t speak to other businesses


----------



## marinyork (5 Apr 2020)

The charity commission recommends 18 months of reserve funds be kept by charities.

It's a theoretical idea the smaller you get. Some are going to have a 25% drop in income and that will mean large cuts rather than going under.

The micro charities far smaller than the bigger ones Tom lists may go under completely.

In the scenario modelling where I volunteer they suggested as a scenario that the location goes out of business or cuts the hours which would mean at least 50% reduced "services". As in businesses a lot rely on each other so large knock ons.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Oh poor them just like many other young men in the current situation they will have make saving accordingly.



Yes the poor multi millionaires worrying about lost tax revenues.🙄 I’m sure they could donate the £500 million to the NHS to solve their worries.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (5 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I hope when this is all over, the sheer grasping greed of footballers is addressed.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52168692



Furlough the feckers, let them get by on £2500 a month.


----------



## PaulB (5 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Yes the poor multi millionaires worrying about lost tax revenues.🙄 I’m sure they could donate the £500 million to the NHS to solve their worries.




But they've already donated far more than that already in taxes and National Insurance. If the so-called 'government' can't allocate it responsibly, why should any group of people have to bail them out for their failings?


----------



## marinyork (5 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> I could be pursuaded that what we are doing/following is the least worst option. But we've so little future information to go on, whilst being assailed with daily death figures but being given very little information on the lockdowns present and future societal cost.
> 
> I can't believe these figures, how can gloves cost 14p? A single use apron £2.50? I'd have guessed an apron cost less than 5p. I am getting through £50+ worth of gear a shift, the medical staff a huge amount more!
> 
> View attachment 512679



It's all small change. In Italy, China and Spain a small but terrifying minority of hospital staff got the virus and ended up in hospital. The cost of all that dwarfs the cost of the PPE.

The PPE problem of securing and cost will be a gigantic problem for the social care sector.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (5 Apr 2020)

PaulB said:


> But they've already donated far more than that already in taxes and National Insurance. If the so-called 'government' can't allocate it responsibly, why should any group of people have to bail them out for their failings?



Donated?

Let's not forget footballers do seem to be involved in more tax avoidance rackets than other groups -

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-01-21...der-investigation-by-hmrc-over-tax-avoidance/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...footballers-face-250m-bill-tax-avoidance.html
https://bankruptcypetitionandannulm...ers-using-tax-avoidance-ebts-into-bankruptcy/


----------



## PaulB (5 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Donated?
> 
> Let's not forget footballers do seem to be involved in more tax avoidance rackets than other groups -
> 
> ...


I'm using his term to illustrate the point. And haven't you got anything more up to date than that?


----------



## marinyork (5 Apr 2020)

A BBC article from yesterday on care homes around Europe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-52147861

I think someone originally posted the financial times investigative piece. This is also updated on pieces earlier.


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> The charity commission recommends 18 months of reserve funds be kept by charities.
> 
> It's a theoretical idea the smaller you get. Some are going to have a 25% drop in income and that will mean large cuts rather than going under.
> 
> ...



Many local branches of national one get nothing from national incomes. They are totally self funding the one I ran would not survive this for sure. Some government funding is going to be needed with long over due rethink on charity regulations along with removing charity status from some.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (5 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> A BBC article from yesterday on care homes around Europe.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-52147861
> 
> I think someone originally posted the financial times investigative piece. This is also updated on pieces earlier.



My step-son is a care worker in a Glasgow care home. As a severe asthmatic and looking after 3 young children on his own, he approached his manager about self-isolating and was told in no uncertain terms he had to come in to work. When he found the official council guidelines that stated he should stay at home and showed the page to her, he was told if he didn't come in he wouldn't get paid. He contacted his union who initially said "I would just go to work mate" but two days later changed their minds and told him to stay at home. It seems individual care home managers are ignoring official guidelines and putting staff and residents at risk, all over Glasgow as his "network" of colleagues on social media are sharing stories. It's absolutely no surprise to see 13 deaths in one care home in Glasgow.


----------



## Julia9054 (5 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> A BBC article from yesterday on care homes around Europe.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-52147861
> 
> I think someone originally posted the financial times investigative piece. This is also updated on pieces earlier.


My son has been working in a care home for adults with learning difficulties. He gets no more ppe than the usual gloves for providing personal care


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

Care homes are a ticking time bomb. It's hard to see any other way than what a few have done move staff in and self isolate as one group. With the rest of staff on a rota to take over after an agreed time. That's if they have enough staff able and willing to do it. 
It's a really difficult situation all round even with PPE they are not set up to operate in isolation. 
Nursing homes will be in an even worse position both with staff numbers and the extra care needs.


----------



## Julia9054 (5 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Care homes are a ticking time bomb. It's hard to see any other way than what a few have done move staff in and self isolate as one group. With the rest of staff on a rota to take over after an agreed time. That's if they have enough staff able and willing to do it.
> It's a really difficult situation all round even with PPE they are not set up to operate in isolation.
> Nursing homes will be in an even worse position both with staff numbers and the extra care needs.


We have been discussing infection control in our house. Both boys start new jobs next week. My eldest as a care worker for a company that provides care in clients own homes and my youngest as a porter in one of the new Coronavirus hospitals. The possibility for cross contamination doesn’t bear thinking about.


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

Now a nursing assistant has died how many more ? 
Sort this out it need not happen it should not happen. 
Just let the experts and co who know what to do run the show and leave the government to sign the cheques. 
In other news someone had to be rescued after becoming stuck halfway up a cliff. 
What's wrong with these people ?


----------



## biggs682 (5 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Furlough the feckers, let them get by on £2500 a month.


Why give them that much more like minimum wage


----------



## vickster (5 Apr 2020)

biggs682 said:


> Why give them that much more like minimum wage


Because that’s what the HMRC furlough rules allow, 80% of gross salary up to a max of £2500. Same for everyone


----------



## Unkraut (5 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> As a severe asthmatic and looking after 3 young children on his own, he approached his manager about self-isolating and was told in no uncertain terms he had to come in to work


The manager insisting on this is mind-numbingly stupid for all concerned - including the manager.


----------



## biggs682 (5 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Because that’s what the HMRC furlough rules allow, 80% of gross salary up to a max of £2500. Same for everyone



Yes I know it's the same for everyone but others don't get to vote whether they accept it or not


----------



## vickster (5 Apr 2020)

biggs682 said:


> Yes I know it's the same for everyone but others don't get to vote whether they accept it or not


My employer is gathering feedback from permanent employees on several different options that have been put forwards. I don’t know what other companies are doing in terms of consultation or not.

Unions are also involved in several sectors, such as airlines. The PFA is just another union presumably (if that’s what you mean by voting?)


----------



## Edwardoka (5 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Care homes are a ticking time bomb. It's hard to see any other way than what a few have done move staff in and self isolate as one group. With the rest of staff on a rota to take over after an agreed time. That's if they have enough staff able and willing to do it.
> It's a really difficult situation all round even with PPE they are not set up to operate in isolation.
> Nursing homes will be in an even worse position both with staff numbers and the extra care needs.


Indeed.

One of my friends caught it, was ill, had the whole gamut of symptoms without reaching the levels where he needed to be hospitalised. He now seems to be on the path to recovery, his wife has passed her 14 day self-isolation period without ever showing any symptoms.

She works in care, and her workplace is putting pressure on her to come back, but without any way of testing whether she's contagious, or any guidelines about what happens after the self-isolation period, how can anyone conscionably do so, knowing that she could easily be endangering the very people she's meant to be caring for? Thankfully she's smarter than her managers and has not yet returned.

Total lack of joined-up thinking in places where it is needed the most.


----------



## Smokin Joe (5 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I hope when this is all over, the sheer grasping greed of footballers is addressed.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52168692


And if they did take a pay cut, who would benefit? The Glaziers, Roman Abramovich, a few crooked Arab oil billionaires and a load of hedge funds, not the fans or the NHS.

I'm with the players on this, there are many people in entertainment and other walks of life earning a lot more than Premier League players, but of course "Uneducated working class yobs" make easy targets and popular headlines.


----------



## biggs682 (5 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> My employer is gathering feedback from permanent employees on several different options that have been put forwards. I don’t know what other companies are doing in terms of consultation or not.
> 
> Unions are also involved in several sectors, such as airlines. The PFA is just another union presumably (if that’s what you mean by voting?)



I have been consulted and in agreement with it . So no problems with it . 

Just don't agree with a bunch of mamby pampies trying to refuse it on the grounds that the lower income will harm the NHS .

Utter twaddle and yes it will mean less money going into the tax coffers but that is not there real concern in my honest opinion


----------



## nickyboy (5 Apr 2020)

The issue regarding top level football clubs is as follows:

These are quite small businesses in terms of total employees and there is enormous disparity in salaries within them

For example, Tottenham Hotspur furloughed 500 employees. Let's be generous and assume their average salary is £50k. That would be £25m per year in total

Now how about their first team squad? 20 or so footballers. Average salary? Dunno, let's say £100k per player per week. That's £100m per year

So with a 25% reduction in first team salaries there would be no need to furlough anyone. 25%...that's all

However, what is currently happening is that there is no reduction in first team salaries any you and I are paying the furloughed staff. Doesn't seem exactly fair does it?

Ah, but what about those fat cat bosses? Well, very very few of them earn £100k per week. And they have thousands and thousands of employees. There is no way a 25% reduction in the bosses' salaries would make a meaningful dent in the furloughing costs of thousands of employees. Football is different because they have relatively few employees and massive salary disparity


----------



## MarkF (5 Apr 2020)

These footballers wil not be economic wizards, they'll be looked after and the remaining salary, after high living expenses, supercars and mansions to pay for, invested. It's a wonder why we all just don't give up 25/30% of our salary


----------



## glasgowcyclist (5 Apr 2020)

Well, this is not good at all.
She’ll be very lucky to keep her post.

_“Police have issued a warning to Scotland's chief medical officer for visiting her second home in Fife during the coronavirus lockdown. _​​_Dr Catherine Calderwood is facing mounting criticism after pictures of her family trip to Earlsferry were published in the Scottish Sun._​​_She apologised "unreservedly" and said she would continue to focus on her job. _​​_There have been calls for her to step down over the matter with MSPs describing her position as "untenable_".​
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52171694


----------



## Mr Celine (5 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Well, this is not good at all.
> She’ll be very lucky to keep her post.
> 
> _“Police have issued a warning to Scotland's chief medical officer for visiting her second home in Fife during the coronavirus lockdown. _​​_Dr Catherine Calderwood is facing mounting criticism after pictures of her family trip to Earlsferry were published in the Scottish Sun._​​_She apologised "unreservedly" and said she would continue to focus on her job. _​​_There have been calls for her to step down over the matter with MSPs describing her position as "untenable_".​
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52171694


 Do as I say rather than do as I do doesn't really cut it in the situation we're in now. Why hasn't she resigned?


----------



## CanucksTraveller (5 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> My employer is gathering feedback from permanent employees on several different options that have been put forwards. I don’t know what other companies are doing in terms of consultation or not.
> 
> Unions are also involved in several sectors, such as airlines. The PFA is just another union presumably (if that’s what you mean by voting?)



Yep, I got a say in whether I was furloughed for 3 months, whether I'd lessen my weekly hours for the next three months and get less pay, or none of the above. (I took a cut in hours as a lot of colleagues had done the same - others have volunteered for unpaid leave). I'm not in a union either.


----------



## Smokin Joe (5 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> So with a 25% reduction in first team salaries there would be no need to furlough anyone. 25%...that's all
> 
> However, what is currently happening is that there is no reduction in first team salaries any you and I are paying the furloughed staff. Doesn't seem exactly fair does it?


And which clubs have said they'll use the money that would be saved to pay the furloughed staff? 

Or are they going to keep it firmly lodged in their offshore bank accounts?


----------



## Julia9054 (5 Apr 2020)

The socially distanced A1(M) this afternoon. It doesn’t even look this empty at 3am usually.


----------



## mjr (5 Apr 2020)

News from Germany: the Corona Idiot Charts (3 Trump, 2 Bolsanaro, 1 I forgot  ), time to panic-buy beer and the covid-track-n-trace app idea described as the Stasi's dream.

OK, it's satire but I love the captions.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> The socially distanced A1(M) this afternoon. It doesn’t even look this empty at 3am usually.
> View attachment 512755



A1 this morning a bit further south.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (5 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Not just my belief. Apologies for the Mail link in my previous reply, but hallelujah, a real proper expert seems to agree with me, and in Sweden as well, which I’ve previously said is the place we need to be watching.



Firstly, to form a fixed opinion, then search for an expert who agrees is not a recommended way to go about understanding an issue. 

Secondly, it's worth asking yourself why you can only find one expert with this opinion. 

Thirdly, what exactly are you claiming he agrees with,?

Finally, Sweden has a considerably higher death rate than similar countries, and the approach is far from universally agreed eith by experts in the country. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ten-coronavirus-measures-as-death-toll-climbs


----------



## Johnno260 (5 Apr 2020)

I’m looking forward to losing my 1hr of freedom thanks to no brain morons.


----------



## oldwheels (5 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Well, this is not good at all.
> She’ll be very lucky to keep her post.
> 
> _“Police have issued a warning to Scotland's chief medical officer for visiting her second home in Fife during the coronavirus lockdown. _​​_Dr Catherine Calderwood is facing mounting criticism after pictures of her family trip to Earlsferry were published in the Scottish Sun._​​_She apologised "unreservedly" and said she would continue to focus on her job. _​​_There have been calls for her to step down over the matter with MSPs describing her position as "untenable_".​
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52171694


I agree it is not a laughing matter but she is not as far as we know infected. Why no calls for Charlie Windsor to resign tho' even when he travelled along with several staff also infected to his holiday home much further away. No doubt she has had a severe bollocking from you know who. As they used to say in the past " I wouldnae take a burst pay packet hame tae that yin"


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (5 Apr 2020)

Went for my usual wee 10 mile loop (country lane out of town) and I was shocked by how many people there were out. I'm lucky if I see half a dozen people in total on that route usually, I probably saw well over a hundred today. Most in ones and twos, some family groups and a couple of large teenage groups. Although most were doing the social distancing thing, it wasn't always easy and I had to slow down a few times to let families pass each other and give me a relatively clear path. I can see why a photo would make it look like a large group of people but like I say, most were being sensible and keeping their distance. 

Teenagers though  They'll be the death of us.


----------



## Johnno260 (5 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Went for my usual wee 10 mile loop (country lane out of town) and I was shocked by how many people there were out. I'm lucky if I see half a dozen people in total on that route usually, I probably saw well over a hundred today. Most in ones and twos, some family groups and a couple of large teenage groups. Although most were doing the social distancing thing, it wasn't always easy and I had to slow down a few times to let families pass each other and give me a relatively clear path. I can see why a photo would make it look like a large group of people but like I say, most were being sensible and keeping their distance.
> 
> Teenagers though  They'll be the death of us.



I went out alone and the roads I use were packed, I’m sure the 10 people I saw all together are from the same household...


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (5 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> ...there's very very little talk of the millions that could die in the third world on this thread.



One of the reasons is that outside China this has hitherto largely been a rich man's flu, for no better reason than because transmission is quickest and greatest when and where there are plenty of long distance travels and mobility. As demonstrated below:






I do believe it has every potential to be a horrendous killer in slums in due course, if poorer countries don't learn fast from rich Westerners' mistakes.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Apr 2020)

Germany has extensive testing and a death rate of about 1.5%. If the U.K. real death rate is also about 1.5% it means we have about 329,000 infections out there. We are only reporting 48,000 cases and we know these are mostly cases that have reached hospital. So about 281,000 infections out there that haven’t needed hospital. I wonder how many are asymptomatic?


----------



## PK99 (5 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> NHS England’s national medical director Stephen Powis quoted by Graun at today's press conference:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



We are having enough trouble persuading stupid people to follow the lockdown rules as its, run a public discussion of relaxing the rules would be a recipe for complete disaster


----------



## Rocky (5 Apr 2020)

I know the reasons behind the lockdown and the need for social distancing. But.......Matt Hancock telling us off as though we were all naughty kids and threatening to take away our exercise time, has really pissed me off. Three things:

(i) Why isn't Hancock self-isolating? It was only a week ago he was said to have been showing signs of Covid. 
(ii) Why not use existing laws to deal with the worst offenders? Scottish police issued a warning against their CMO for breaking the rules
(iii) What about the potential unintended consequences of a total lockdown? More domestic violence, more mental health problems.

I have a son who is a junior doctor on the front line, I know the importance of reducing personal contact but being threatened this way by a weak and ineffectual Secretary of State, who has invested heavily in IT (what has happened to Babylon??) at the expense of PPE and ventilators is almost the last straw.

Boris, I know you are a member of CC and take notice of what we post......please keep Hancock and Gove in isolation. They are making things worse.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (5 Apr 2020)

oldwheels said:


> she is not as far as we know infected



The restrictions apply to everyone, not only those infected.

She is one face of the Scot Gov campaign telling people not to travel unless for one of the exempted reasons so it’s a bigger deal than the prince of Wales helicoptering up to Balmoral. 

She has undermined the efforts of everyone trying to keep us safe and has risked public trust in the stay at home message. 

To make matters worse, she has admitted that she visited her holiday home the previous weekend too, along with her husband. She may continue in post for the duration of this crisis but I expect she’ll subsequently be standing down to spend more time with her family etc. etc.


----------



## alicat (5 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Well, this is not good at all.
> She’ll be very lucky to keep her post.
> 
> _“Police have issued a warning to Scotland's chief medical officer for visiting her second home in Fife during the coronavirus lockdown. _​​_Dr Catherine Calderwood is facing mounting criticism after pictures of her family trip to Earlsferry were published in the Scottish Sun._​​_She apologised "unreservedly" and said she would continue to focus on her job. _​​_There have been calls for her to step down over the matter with MSPs describing her position as "untenable_".​
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52171694



She went two weekends in a row FFS.


----------



## Archie_tect (5 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Boris, I know you are a member of CC and take notice of what we post......please keep Hancock and Gove in isolation. They are making things worse.


Really? We have a direct Bat-line?


----------



## Archie_tect (5 Apr 2020)

Testing politicians may prove to be revealing depending on what we test them on... + will any pass?


----------



## oldwheels (5 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> The restrictions apply to everyone, not only those infected.
> 
> She is one face of the Scot Gov campaign telling people not to travel unless for one of the exempted reasons so it’s a bigger deal than the prince of Wales helicoptering up to Balmoral.
> 
> ...


You are correct in that she should go and no idea if it is correct but she may already have been pushed.
HRH is a big deal tho' as he and members of his staff were infected and flew to another country with it but we did not see the slavering mob after him.


----------



## mjr (5 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Testing politicians may prove to be revealing depending on what we test them on... + will any pass?


Turing test now!


----------



## glasgowcyclist (5 Apr 2020)

oldwheels said:


> You are correct in that she should go and no idea if it is correct but she may already have been pushed.
> HRH is a big deal tho' as he and members of his staff were infected and flew to another country with it but we did not see the slavering mob after him.



I didn’t say the prince wasn’t a big deal but that the CMO was a bigger deal.

I saw plenty of backlash about his travel. Unfortunately royals are generally untouchable so do not suffer from public criticism.


----------



## mjr (5 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I’m looking forward to losing my 1hr of freedom thanks to no brain morons.


You're not currently restricted to 1hr. That may be a future restriction.

Personally, I'd love to know why more than one adult in a car except for medical/care reasons isn't an offence here like in other countries. On Friday, shops were still having to weed out couples from the queues trying to take up limited shop capacity.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> One of the reasons is that outside China this has hitherto largely been a rich man's flu, for no better reason than because transmission is quickest and greatest when and where there are plenty of long distance travels and mobility. As demonstrated below:
> 
> View attachment 512802
> 
> ...


An earlier London borough by borough breakdown of covid-19 cases showed 2 of the richest boroughs, Westminster, and Kensington and Chelsea, at or near the top of the list. They're now far lower but poorer boroughs like Lambeth and Southwark have climbed alarmingly. (Alarmingly because the borough of Southwark is literally just over the road.)


----------



## marinyork (5 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> I do believe it has every potential to be a horrendous killer in slums in due course, if poorer countries don't learn fast from rich Westerners' mistakes.



I have been looking the last couple of weeks on developing countries' cases. In a lot of Africa I think every single country has a case now, taking a longer term view it's possible there could be moderately sized outbreaks in African in May (leaving a couple of months for things to circulate).

I'm not sure how much developing countries can learn from westerners - no masks, no vaccines, no testing, very little resources in many cases.


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Well, this is not good at all.
> She’ll be very lucky to keep her post.
> 
> _“Police have issued a warning to Scotland's chief medical officer for visiting her second home in Fife during the coronavirus lockdown. _​​_Dr Catherine Calderwood is facing mounting criticism after pictures of her family trip to Earlsferry were published in the Scottish Sun._​​_She apologised "unreservedly" and said she would continue to focus on her job. _​​_There have been calls for her to step down over the matter with MSPs describing her position as "untenable_".​
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52171694



It maybe grounds to report her to GMC if anything it's a poor error of judgment. 
I see she's openly admitted she did the same thing the week before not a great image.


----------



## slowmotion (5 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> An earlier London borough by borough breakdown of covid-19 cases showed 2 of the richest boroughs, Westminster, and Kensington and Chelsea, at or near the top of the list. They're now far lower but poorer boroughs like Lambeth and Southwark have climbed alarmingly. (Alarmingly because the borough of Southwark is literally just over the road.)


Couldn't it be because Westminster and Kensington had very large crowds of tourists and tourist attractions, rather than wealth? Just a suggestion.


----------



## marinyork (5 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> (iii) What about the potential unintended consequences of a total lockdown? More domestic violence, more mental health problems.



People who are lower down the pecking order of advisors have flagged these up. As a whole in government policy, aside from the bit of exercise and domestic violence victims being allowed to leave their homes, this is just an afterthought. There seems to be the assumption that 'everything' can be solved by a quick telephone call by some random temporary worker.


----------



## Johnno260 (5 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> You're not currently restricted to 1hr. That may be a future restriction.
> 
> Personally, I'd love to know why more than one adult in a car except for medical/care reasons isn't an offence here like in other countries. On Friday, shops were still having to weed out couples from the queues trying to take up limited shop capacity.



from a personal point of view it’s 1hr as I’m still working, so it’s what I can fit into my work day, also I don’t want to take the mickey and go for a 6hr ride.


----------



## mjr (5 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm not sure how much developing countries can learn from westerners - no masks, no vaccines, no testing, very little resources in many cases.


Francophone Africa has started public education and making masks, if TV5monde's journal is to be believed. No idea of scale, though.


----------



## marinyork (5 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> It maybe grounds to report her to GMC if anything it's a poor error of judgment.
> I see she's openly admitted she did the same thing the week before not a great image.



Yikes. Second time. No wonder the police paid a visit, despite the press piece put out by the Scottish government.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Couldn't it be because Westminster and Kensington had very large crowds of tourists and tourist attractions, rather than wealth? Just a suggestion.


Possibly, but February is hardly peak tourism time. It would be a peak time for people returning from skiing holidays, though.


----------



## nickyboy (5 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> I have been looking the last couple of weeks on developing countries' cases. In a lot of Africa I think every single country has a case now, taking a longer term view it's possible there could be moderately sized outbreaks in African in May (leaving a couple of months for things to circulate).
> 
> I'm not sure how much developing countries can learn from westerners - no masks, no vaccines, no testing, very little resources in many cases.


When the dust finally settles in a couple of years time I fear the greatest injustice will be the lack of help the developed countries (which will come out of the pandemic first) gave to the less developed countries

All developed countries will be in recession and I fear that there will be a lot of looking after their electorates whilst huge numbers die elsewhere


----------



## Mr Celine (5 Apr 2020)

oldwheels said:


> I agree it is not a laughing matter but she is not as far as we know infected. Why no calls for Charlie Windsor to resign tho' even when he travelled along with several staff also infected to his holiday home much further away. No doubt she has had a severe bollocking from you know who. As they used to say in the past " I wouldnae take a burst pay packet hame tae that yin"


The two aren't really comparable. I'm starting to lose track of time but I'm sure Chick went to Balmoral before the emergency legislation was passed. That doesn't excuse his behaviour but it wasn't in breach of the law. 
The emergency legislation, which drastically curtails all our civil liberties, was drafted on the advice of the Chief Medical Officer who promptly ignored it and then repeated the offence the next weekend. 
If she doesn't believe in her own advice I for one see no reason to follow it any more and judging by the traffic noise from the A7 this afternoon, which suddenly ramped back up to normal levels, I'm not alone.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> People who are lower down the pecking order of advisors have flagged these up. As a whole in government policy, aside from the bit of exercise and domestic violence victims being allowed to leave their homes, this is just an afterthought. There seems to be the assumption that 'everything' can be solved by a quick telephone call by some random temporary worker.


I'm not sure it happened but the quoted text was not from me. It seems to come from a post made quite a long time ago.


----------



## Rezillo (5 Apr 2020)

Mr Celine said:


> If she doesn't believe in her own advice I for one see no reason to follow it any more.



That's a rather dangerous assumption. I don't know why she did such an incredibly stupid thing but there are several scenarios in which she could still believe in her advice but for whatever reason, ignored it for herself. Self-testing, for one.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (5 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> I have been looking the last couple of weeks on developing countries' cases. In a lot of Africa I think every single country has a case now, taking a longer term view it's possible there could be moderately sized outbreaks in African in May (leaving a couple of months for things to circulate).
> 
> *I'm not sure how much developing countries can learn from westerners - no masks, no vaccines, no testing, very little resources in many cases.*



As indicated, since it is a rich man's flu, for poor countries with limited resource, the secret is to implement measures asap to stop foreigners bringing the virus in, so that healthcare facilities are not overwhelmed, and distancing measures can be applied to nationals with symptoms.

Despite being next door to China with significant commercial links, Vietnam stopped all flights to/from China as early as 1st Feb, 7 days after they had their first case, They stopped entry from the Schengen countries, then UK, and since 22nd March all foreign visitors. To date nobody has died.

They might be a lot poorer than us (17 times poorer in terms of GDP per capita based on PPP), it didn't stop them being able to produce results we can't even dream of.


----------



## Unkraut (5 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It would be a peak time for people returning from skiing holidays, though.


The Tirolean authorities are being subject to heavy criticism for not shutting down the ski season quickly enough, in particular après-ski parties with tourists from all over Europe. Seems to have been a case of putting the revenue earning streams ahead of public health.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> The Tirolean authorities are being subject to heavy criticism for not shutting down the ski season quickly enough, in particular après-ski parties with tourists from all over Europe. Seems to have been a case of putting the revenue earning streams ahead of public health.


It won't just have been the Tyrol that did that.


----------



## Edwardoka (5 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Personally, I'd love to know why more than one adult in a car except for medical/care reasons isn't an offence here like in other countries.


Psst. I know why 
It's because the government are woefully inadequate


----------



## Pat "5mph" (5 Apr 2020)

Boris admitted to hospital, source Sky News app, but I can't see it on their web site yet.


----------



## vickster (5 Apr 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Boris admitted to hospital, source Sky News app, but I can't see it on their web site yet.


On BBC too
Coronavirus: PM admitted to hospital over virus symptoms https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52177125


----------



## marshmella (5 Apr 2020)

BBC reported aswell


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (5 Apr 2020)

I go for an exercise walk about 7 every night. Usually I see about 5-10 people max. Today I saw at least 30, it was very very busy and I’m just wondering why. Here in Edinburgh the weather has been fairly warm but not amazing and pretty much the same as last Sunday. But last Sunday was quiet. Even looking at a nearby cycle path I saw many roadie guys aged from 20s-50s cycling in pairs together. An abundance of cycling brothers perhaps?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (5 Apr 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Boris admitted to hospital, source Sky News app, but I can't see it on their web site yet.



Oh dear, that’s not good.
As much as I loathe the man I wouldn’t want him to come to serious harm from this virus.


----------



## Beebo (5 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> When the dust finally settles in a couple of years time I fear the greatest injustice will be the lack of help the developed countries (which will come out of the pandemic first) gave to the less developed countries
> 
> All developed countries will be in recession and I fear that there will be a lot of looking after their electorates whilst huge numbers die elsewhere


Africa already suffers from another virus pandemic. HIV. 
2800 people die every day from AIDS related illness in Africa which goes almost unnoticed.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Apr 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Boris admitted to hospital, source Sky News app, but I can't see it on their web site yet.



Yep continued high temperature and other symptoms.


----------



## Mike_P (5 Apr 2020)

Oxygen cylinders at Harrogate Nightingale Hospital


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Oh dear, that’s not good.
> As much as I loathe the man I wouldn’t want him to come to serious harm from this virus.



Yep if you’re ill enough to reach hospital your odds are not good.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (5 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Oh dear, that’s not good.
> As much as I loathe the man I wouldn’t want him to come to serious harm from this virus.


Agree.
Hopefully his partner's symptoms don't get worse too.


----------



## Edwardoka (5 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> (snip)
> If he gets terribly sick (which he won't), he will not be one of the ones dying in a conference hall because the hospitals are full and all of the ventilators are in use.





roubaixtuesday said:


> I very much admire your ability to give a medical prognosis remote. Is it a service available to anyone or just the Prime Minister?


Time to put my hand up and say I got this wrong and that I hope he makes a swift recovery.
(I still stand by the rest of my post but now is not the time.)


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Apr 2020)

I want to see him well enough to stand trial for repeatedly lying while in public office.


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

Oh it look's like the Scotland's CMO has now resigned. Little option really she'd become a sideshow.


----------



## Mike_P (5 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> I hope he makes a swift recovery.


The last thing we need is Tory leader election with all its infighting and leading to a complete lack of direction on the matter that really matters.


----------



## rogerzilla (5 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Yep if you’re ill enough to reach hospital your odds are not good.


Nah...up to 20% are likely to reach hospital. The few with ARDS have poor odds but most will just need treatment for pneumonia. My gf was in on Thursday, discharged yesterday after 2 days on nasal oxygen and IV antibiotics. No-one in her ward was on a ventilator. Ages up to 96 (she's only 45).


----------



## Pale Rider (5 Apr 2020)

Diagnosing via twatter video, BoJo didn't look at all well.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (5 Apr 2020)

Best wishes to Johnson. 

But I hate the spin:

"Routine tests" - yeah, 'cos loads of people are having overnight stays in hospital right now for "routine tests"

"still in charge of the government" - obviously not, and certainly shouldn't be.


----------



## kingrollo (5 Apr 2020)

rogerzilla said:


> Nah...up to 20% are likely to reach hospital. The few with ARDS have poor odds but most will just need treatment for pneumonia. My gf was in on Thursday, discharged yesterday after 2 days on nasal oxygen and IV antibiotics. No-one in her ward was on a ventilator. Ages up to 96 (she's only 45).


Think it was reported 50/50 if you got to an ITU bed stage. But that figure is skewed because a lot of older frail people end up in ITU beds.

Not a fan at all - but GWS Boris.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Apr 2020)

rogerzilla said:


> Nah...up to 20% are likely to reach hospital. The few with ARDS have poor odds but most will just need treatment for pneumonia. My gf was in on Thursday, discharged yesterday after 2 days on nasal oxygen and IV antibiotics. No-one in her ward was on a ventilator. Ages up to 96 (she's only 45).



and what percentage are recovering once admitted to hospital for Corona Virus?


----------



## Pale Rider (5 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I want to see him well enough to stand trial for repeatedly lying while in public office.



Your humanity in this matter is inspiring.

We are going to need an awful lot of courtrooms to try every politician who should be tried for the offence you describe.


----------



## rogerzilla (5 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> and what percentage are recovering once admitted to hospital for Corona Virus?


Most. But it's too early to give a figure as there's such a lag. The raw figures suggest a really low recovery rate from infection (let alone admission) but that's nonsense since there is no hard goalpost for "recovered", or it takes weeks.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Your humanity in this matter is inspiring.
> 
> We are going to need an awful lot of courtrooms to try every politician who should be tried for the offence you describe.


Start with the most egregious and then see whether the rest of the cabinet start to take notice. Then pick the next big liar.

As to my humanity, ethical democracy is more important to me than the self-important people who make a mockery of it.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Apr 2020)

So, back to the thread: Calderwood has resigned. Inevitable.


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (5 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> So, back to the thread: Calderwood has resigned. Inevitable.



Not sure how to feel about that. Obviously she was v.silly and hypocritical but if her expertise is needed surely that is more important? I imagine she’ll still be kept in a less senior backroom role?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Apr 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> Not sure how to feel about that. Obviously she was v.silly and hypocritical but if her expertise is needed surely that is more important? I imagine she’ll still be kept in a less senior backroom role?


It would have made policing the stay at home rules impossible in Scotland should she have remained.


----------



## Pale Rider (5 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Start with the most egregious and then see whether the rest of the cabinet start to take notice. Then pick the next big liar.
> 
> As to my humanity, ethical democracy is more important to me than the self-important people who make a mockery of it.



Your quest for justice in this matter matter would me more impressive were it not motivated by party political point scoring.

Or does 'ethical democracy' only apply to those you say it does?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Your quest for justice in this matter matter would me more impressive were it not motivated by party political point scoring.
> 
> Or does 'ethical democracy' only apply to those you say it does?


And what is my party?


----------



## Mr Celine (5 Apr 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> Not sure how to feel about that. Obviously she was v.silly and hypocritical but if her expertise is needed surely that is more important? I imagine she’ll still be kept in a less senior backroom role?


She does have medical qualifications. Perhaps they could find her a job treating coronavirus patients.


----------



## Pale Rider (5 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And what is my party?



Not one I'd want to be a member of because my ethical democracy extends to a dislike of the ignorant.


----------



## tom73 (5 Apr 2020)

Mr Celine said:


> She does have medical qualifications. Perhaps they could find her a job treating coronavirus patients.



Well she's obs and gynae so unless your pregnant she will be limited in scope.


----------



## MarkF (5 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Yep if you’re ill enough to reach hospital your odds are not good.



I think it's needing a ventilator in ICU where your chances are low.

More data is released each day now, I'll post some tomorrow. Given it's ultra densely populated area, with it's multi generational housing, l'd guess only a small % of people who think they are infected, or are infected, would actually want/choose to go to the hospital right now.


----------



## Archie_tect (5 Apr 2020)

Has anyone thought that if Johnson is incapacitated Raab becomes acting PM.

... you may wish to invoke the protection of a monotheistic deity.


----------



## Pale Rider (5 Apr 2020)

Interesting decision by Sturgeon to stand by the doctor when she must have known resignation was close to inevitable.

Sturgeon is a skilled political tactician so may have thought her display of loyalty was the best way to limit the damage to her government.

Either that, or she is so arrogant and conceited she genuinely thought her intervention would be enough to sway the public mood.


----------



## Stephenite (5 Apr 2020)

Sweden likely to ramp up restrictions in the next few days. Probably for the best as they have three times the death rate (per million pop) as neighbours Norway.

This is good timing being right before the Easter break. There are thousands of young swedes working in and around Oslo. I know of one, otherwise sensible, lass who is planning on sneaking in and out to avoid the quarantine period.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Not one I'd want to be a member of because my ethical democracy extends to a dislike of the ignorant.


I would have told you but you just chose ignorance.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (5 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Interesting decision by Sturgeon to stand by the doctor when she must have known resignation was close to inevitable.
> 
> Sturgeon is a skilled political tactician so may have thought her display of loyalty was the best way to limit the damage to her government.
> 
> Either that, or she is so arrogant and conceited she genuinely thought her intervention would be enough to sway the public mood.



Apparently she offered to resign but it was refused initially because she is very good at her job.


----------



## mjr (5 Apr 2020)

Belgian (rtbf) news: more discharged than admitted for the first time during crisis, questions over the end of the uni year, surge in bbqs this weekend, Burundi prevents dual nationals leaving on repatriation flights (pic) amid concerns that this is a move to ensure help with c19 which their president currently says the grace of god protects them from, report on poorly-equipped hospitals in Ukraine (pic), preview of the Tour of Flanders (pic)


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Best wishes to Johnson.
> 
> But I hate the spin:
> 
> ...


A doctor on BBC News said that the standard tests would take approximately 2 hours. As head of the government, he wouldn't be subjected to ordinary mortals' waiting times so it would be shorter. Not an overnight stay's worth of a hospital bed, it's something more serious.


----------



## Wobblers (6 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Went for my usual wee 10 mile loop (country lane out of town) and I was shocked by how many people there were out. I'm lucky if I see half a dozen people in total on that route usually, I probably saw well over a hundred today. Most in ones and twos, some family groups and a couple of large teenage groups. Although most were doing the social distancing thing, it wasn't always easy and I had to slow down a few times to let families pass each other and give me a relatively clear path. I can see why a photo would make it look like a large group of people but like I say, most were being sensible and keeping their distance.
> 
> Teenagers though  They'll be the death of us.



Like you, I saw a surprising number of people on my government mandated daily exercise and vitamin D dosing session (Sunshine! Hazy, but still sunshine!) - both cyclists and walkers. There were a few groups - but they were clearly families. All were observing the social distancing. This is the thing: 99% are actually being sensible, and following the rules. It's just that the feckless foolish minority are so visible. It'll be a crying shame if this one release is removed just because of a minority of selfish idiots. I suspect it's more likely that we will be restricted to not travel more than one or two miles from home - ironically that will significantly increases the chances of exposure for those of us in towns and cities. The narrow pavements round Birkenhead are much more crowded than a couple of weeks before, and it's often impossible to maintain a 2 metre separation; I meet fewer people on the bike, and have enough space to avoid anyone I come across. A distance restriction will make things worse.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Apparently she offered to resign but it was refused initially because she is very good at her job.


And Sturgeon's instinct seems to be towards loyalty so I could well believe that account.


----------



## slowmotion (6 Apr 2020)

Scotland's CMO did something extremely stupid, but if she's good at her job, isn't she the sort of person that we need under the current circumstances?


----------



## Unkraut (6 Apr 2020)

A news extra had a piece on the queen addressing the nation. Was considered very good, much more personal and sympathetic than the govt has managed to far. Some amusement that she mentioned the war!

They did make the point that for all the respect being shown by the public for their NHS, they were not prepared to show this in putting more money into it, a reference to 10 years of cost savings by the Tories and the effect this has had. (I can't help wonder that this tendency to dig at the underfunding of the NHS is in part caused by some needle at Britain doing the big power thing over the last four years but cannot domestically provide a better health service for its population. It gets a bit annoying after a while.)

They also made the claim that if you are over 75 and taken very seriously ill there are no longer the resources to treat you. Is this true, or is this an exaggeration of the situation at present?


----------



## Pale Rider (6 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Apparently she offered to resign but it was refused initially because she is very good at her job.



A lot of the resignation calls in cases such as these are more about good political sport, rather than genuine concern for the job being done well.

This case shows no evidence of the latter.

As a second home owner (a tin box in my case) I sympathise with the need for a maintenance visit, particularly if the property has been shut up for the winter.

The doctor packed up the family to go to her second home - the visits were no more than weekend jollies.

Saying she complied by steering clear of the smelly locals calls her judgment more into question, not less - her ignoring of the regulations was deliberate, thought out, and repeated.

It also shows a despicable attitude to those she is meant to be serving.

None of the above gives any indication she would be good at a public health job.

Quite the reverse, they indicate a person with poor judgment, and with no grasp of the behaviour required to occupy a senior taxpayer funded position.


----------



## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> They also made the claim that if you are over 75 and taken very seriously ill there are no longer the resources to treat you. Is this true, or is this an exaggeration of the situation at present?


I think exaggeration but I'm not in the worst-hit area and our press seems decreasingly objective now.


----------



## slowmotion (6 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> A news extra had a piece on the queen addressing the nation. Was considered very good, much more personal and sympathetic than the govt has managed to far. Some amusement that she mentioned the war!
> 
> They did make the point that for all the respect being shown by the public for their NHS, they were not prepared to show this in putting more money into it, a reference to 10 years of cost savings by the Tories and the effect this has had. (I can't help wonder that this tendency to dig at the underfunding of the NHS is in part caused by some needle at Britain doing the big power thing over the last four years but cannot domestically provide a better health service for its population. It gets a bit annoying after a while.)
> 
> They also made the claim that if you are over 75 and taken very seriously ill there are no longer the resources to treat you. Is this true, or is this an exaggeration of the situation at present?


I've spoken to a few friends outside the UK and they all mention things that their local media has told them about how their government's behaved better/worse than their neighbours etc etc. It's what the media does. I wouldn't read too much into it. When it's all over and we have a reliable body count, the media will bitch/crow about why it was worse/better than the count next door.


----------



## Edwardoka (6 Apr 2020)

You can tell how much attention I pay to matters after I've grown weary/sad/overwhelmed by them; I just now realised that the CMO for Scotland is the same person who's been in my ear all week on Spotify ads telling me not to make unnecessary journeys.

Yeah, her position was untenable. She might have been the best person for the job but it doesn't matter, her role isn't just what she does during office hours, given the magnitude of the crisis it's also that of a role model, and for her to be perceived as flouting the rules could only have had a significant impact on compliance.


----------



## Wobblers (6 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> I have been looking the last couple of weeks on developing countries' cases. In a lot of Africa I think every single country has a case now, taking a longer term view it's possible there could be moderately sized outbreaks in African in May (leaving a couple of months for things to circulate).
> 
> I'm not sure how much developing countries can learn from westerners - no masks, no vaccines, no testing, very little resources in many cases.



I have little doubt that the virus is circulating round the third world slums. These are places with little to no health surveillance, and fevers are common. Most cases are likely to be mistaken for dengue, malaria or possibly yellow fever.This is compounded by the lack of testing: only the most wealthy in places like sub-Saharan Africa are likely to get tested so we really have very little idea about what is happening there.


----------



## Wobblers (6 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Germany has extensive testing and a death rate of about 1.5%. If the U.K. real death rate is also about 1.5% it means we have about 329,000 infections out there. We are only reporting 48,000 cases and we know these are mostly cases that have reached hospital. So about 281,000 infections out there that haven’t needed hospital. I wonder how many are asymptomatic?



We're only testing those who are hospitalised. Given that we can expect only 20% of known CV-19 cases (from the Chinese data) end up in hospital, that implies that there are 240,000 cases in total.

This, though, is likely the tip of the iceberg. I was careful to say "20% of _known_ cases". That's because many cases, probably the majority, never reach the attention of the medical authorities. I've seen estimates run from only 1 in 4 cases being spotted all the way up to 1 in 19 being spotted. Ferguson in his paper modelling the epidemic assumed that 66% of all cases were spotted (rather high, and contrary to all the other published analyses I've seen). Chinese data suggests that only 1 in 7 infections were ever discovered by the authorities. Taking that into account suggests a true number of infections of between 360,000 and 1.6 million (using the Chinese data as the high estimate).

Many of these people will have recovered from the infection (though some still have the virus, and it's not clear as to whether or not they're still infectious). Many will be asymptomatic. And many will have sub-clinical symptoms: a slight snivel or sore throat, perhaps, or just feeling subpar for a few days. At the moment, it's impossible to tell, and without a intensive campaign of antibody testing to tell us who's been exposed to the virus and detailed medical histories from those who test positive we won't know.


----------



## slowmotion (6 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> We're only testing those who are hospitalised. Given that we can expect only 20% of known CV-19 cases (from the Chinese data) end up in hospital, that implies that there are 240,000 cases in total.
> 
> This, though, is likely the tip of the iceberg. I was careful to say "20% of _known_ cases". That's because many cases, probably the majority, never reach the attention of the medical authorities. I've seen estimates run from only 1 in 4 cases being spotted all the way up to 1 in 19 being spotted. Ferguson in his paper modelling the epidemic assumed that 66% of all cases were spotted (rather high, and contrary to all the other published analyses I've seen). Chinese data suggests that only 1 in 7 infections were ever discovered by the authorities. Taking that into account suggests a true number of infections of between 360,000 and 1.6 million (using the Chinese data as the high estimate).
> 
> Many of these people will have recovered from the infection (though some still have the virus, and it's not clear as to whether or not they're still infectious). Many will be asymptomatic. And many will have sub-clinical symptoms: a slight snivel or sore throat, perhaps, or just feeling subpar for a few days. At the moment, it's impossible to tell, and without a intensive campaign of antibody testing to tell us who's been exposed to the virus and detailed medical histories from those who test positive we won't know.


I'm not in any way attempting to downplay the seriousness of this pandemic, but how would "conventional" flu stack up in your assessment above? It kills, on average, 17,000 UK inhabitants a year. Some people get a sniffle, some people die. Some people get it and never know. Is there a fundamental difference between it and Corona virus?


----------



## Slick (6 Apr 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> Not sure how to feel about that. Obviously she was v.silly and hypocritical but if her expertise is needed surely that is more important? I imagine she’ll still be kept in a less senior backroom role?


I'm the exact same. It would be so easy to wave good riddance but that mistake aside, she has exactly the expertise and experience to help guide us out this crisis. Shame


----------



## slowmotion (6 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> You can tell how much attention I pay to matters after I've grown weary/sad/overwhelmed by them; I just now realised that the CMO for Scotland is the same person who's been in my ear all week on Spotify ads telling me not to make unnecessary journeys.
> 
> Yeah, her position was untenable. She might have been the best person for the job but it doesn't matter, her role isn't just what she does during office hours, given the magnitude of the crisis it's also that of a role model, and for her to be perceived as flouting the rules could only have had a significant impact on compliance.


I don't know what balance was struck between PR skills and technical ability in her job description. Alas, it was probably the former. Did teeth whiteness feature?


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

Some fresh stats, food for thought nr are deaths per 1M of population
Sweden no lockdown 40/1M
Japan no lockdown 0.7/1M
S Korea no lockdown 4/1M

UK lockdown 73/1M
Spain lockdown 273/1M
France lockdown 124/1M

Think of it what you want
Actually, no 
It is either someone is not reporting deaths at all, or others are contributing "extra" deaths to CV


----------



## Mike_P (6 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> I suspect it's more likely that we will be restricted to not travel more than one or two miles from home - ironically that will significantly increases the chances of exposure for those of us in towns and cities.


Would still give large numbers of people access to urban parks which seems to be one of main idiot groupings so maybe all parks should be shut. Then again according to press reports there were idiots in Harrogate yesterday having a street party so a complete lockdown is I suspect inevitable if not this week certainly after no doubt a result of crazy scenes over the Easter weekend. Maybe water cannons need to be employed.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I'm not in any way attempting to downplay the seriousness of this pandemic, but how would "conventional" flu stack up in your assessment above? It kills, on average, 17,000 UK inhabitants a year. Some people get a sniffle, some people die. Some people get it and never know. *Is there a fundamental difference between it and Corona virus?*



Yes. My attempt to summarise:

1) It's ~2 times more contagious

2) you are *much* more likely to be hospitalized with COVID than flu

3) It's very approximately 10x more likely to kill you. 

4) There is no vaccine. 

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

Also tota


roubaixtuesday said:


> Yes. My attempt to summarise:
> 
> 1) It's ~2 times more contagious
> 
> ...


Where did you come up with 10x times more?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> It is either someone is not reporting deaths at all, or others are contributing "extra" deaths to CV



Or alternatively:

Some countries have a test and trace policy (Korea), some are just behind us in time (Sweden) and lockdown will follow deaths rising, some are far more compliant to rules without a full lockdown (Japan), and combinations of the above.


----------



## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> Not sure how to feel about that. Obviously she was v.silly and hypocritical but if her expertise is needed surely that is more important? I imagine she’ll still be kept in a less senior backroom role?




Nothing silly about it she's not some jumped up politician but a HCP she has a duty to act in a professional manner and she did not.
She showed clear lack of regard for public health she made a conscience decision not once but twice to do so.
You can't front a public health campaign then ignore it.
Actions have concquencers and in this case it was to lose her job. Yesterdays press conference was full of question after question about her and her clear lack of regard for public health. The bigger picture and message was just getting lost.
She had to go if she had gone quicker the story would have been over. But like so many in power she was so fair removed from relatively that she felt it will be ok and I can just carry on.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Also tota
> 
> Where did you come up with 10x times more?



Note "Very approximately", some sources:

WHO:

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care. 

A summary of current science here:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Note "Very approximately", some sources:
> 
> WHO:
> 
> ...


Key words: appears, will take some time to understand, will be lower
Also mortality for seasonal flu is about .1 not well below

Also some most vulnerable population on Princess of diamonds - 800 cases, 12 deaths, again thats just worst case scenario, mortality rate less in whole society


----------



## HMS_Dave (6 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Note "Very approximately", some sources:
> 
> WHO:
> 
> ...


Indeed. Although when taking into account Influenza, it does have a vaccine which isn't 100% able to protect you, it helps and also it's something that is also widespread. In no way detracting from the potency of Covid-19. It is a dangerous virus regardless and the true extent of its effects as you say won't be known for some time...


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

Also my small summary of mortality rate in Japan and Korea
Less than 0.1%


----------



## Rocky (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Key words: appears, will take some time to understand, will be lower
> Also mortality for seasonal flu is about .1 not well below
> 
> Also some most vulnerable population on Princess of diamonds - 800 cases, 12 deaths, again thats just worst case scenario, mortality rate less in whole society


And how do you know about the underlying health issues of those cruise ship passengers?


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

Simple
They are old


----------



## Rocky (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Simple
> They are old


If that is the level of your evidence, I’m not going to respond further.


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It's great that you are better than scientists studying the disease and the World Health Organisation at judging mortality.


https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/


----------



## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> If that is the level of your evidence, I’m not going to respond further.



Lord it's a good job they are not in charge of DNR's


----------



## HMS_Dave (6 Apr 2020)

In regards to the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, from reading it seems bizarre how the virus has effected people. https://www.forbes.com/sites/victor...ip-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#1ccf2f6b406d

Particularly " The second study looked at computerized tomography (CT) scans taken from 112 people who had contracted confirmed COVID-19 on board the Diamond Princess ..... Of the 112 people scanned, 73% of them didn’t have any clinically obvious symptoms but half of these people had detectable changes in their lungs indicating some level of pneumonia. Of the 27% of people who did show COVID-19 symptoms, 4 out of 5 people showed abnormal CT findings.

Im no virologist or barely know what im talking about but it seems bizarre that 73% of those with no obvious symptoms actual had some pheumonia.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/



Ionnadis: Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction?

US deaths yesterday: 9648. The article has not aged well.


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Ionnadis: Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction?
> 
> US deaths yesterday: 9648. The article has not aged well.
> 
> You are trying to cherry pick views which back up your prejudices.


Arent we all doing that?
Confirmation bias and all


Tomorrow ONS releases new stats total deaths in England and Wales,


----------



## Rocky (6 Apr 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> In regards to the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, from reading it seems bizarre how the virus has effected people. https://www.forbes.com/sites/victor...ip-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#1ccf2f6b406d
> 
> Particularly " The second study looked at computerized tomography (CT) scans taken from 112 people who had contracted confirmed COVID-19 on board the Diamond Princess ..... Of the 112 people scanned, 73% of them didn’t have any clinically obvious symptoms but half of these people had detectable changes in their lungs indicating some level of pneumonia. Of the 27% of people who did show COVID-19 symptoms, 4 out of 5 people showed abnormal CT findings.
> 
> Im no virologist or barely know what im talking about but it seems bizarre that 73% of those with no obvious symptoms actual had some pheumonia.


The passengers average age was 62 and ranged between 25 and 93.


----------



## HMS_Dave (6 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The passengers average age was 62 and ranged between 25 and 93.


Indeed. I was taken back by how the virus caused Pneumonia in people who didn't think they were infected and by quite a large number!


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The passengers average age was 62 and ranged between 25 and 93.


So you agree they are old?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

.


Eziemnaik said:


> Arent we all doing that?



No.

Trying to understand something you don't have expertise in does not involve picking single articles you believe support a view you have formed.


----------



## Rocky (6 Apr 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> Indeed. I was taken back by how the virus caused Pneumonia in people who didn't think they were infected and by quite a large number!


62 is not old. And it is impossible as some have done to infer anything about underlying health issues from that. I’m 63.....on that basis, I’d better book my funeral now.


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> 
> No.
> ...


Have ypu included any articles you dont agree with in your picking?


----------



## Mo1959 (6 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> 62 is not old. And it is impossible as some have done to infer anything about underlying health issues from that. I’m 63.....on that basis, I’d better book my funeral now.


I'm coming up 61 and wouldn't class myself as old yet. My dad retired from a very physical job at 63 and then walked most of the Munros in his early retirement years. I think people are living better into older age now than at one time.


----------



## HMS_Dave (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/





Eziemnaik said:


> So you agree they are old?



First you'd have to agree to there being reliable data...


----------



## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> 62 is not old. And it is impossible as some have done to infer anything about underlying health issues from that. I’m 63.....on that basis, I’d better book my funeral now.


Also, it's lower than the age selected by most governments for special protection measures (shielding/cocooning/isolation...)


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I'm coming up 61 and wouldn't class myself as old yet. My dad retired from a very physical job at 63 and then walked most of the Munros in his early retirement years. I think people are living better into older age now than at one time.


Would you agree that on average 62 years old will have more underlying health issues than 20 year olds?


----------



## Mo1959 (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Would you agree that on average 62 years old will have more underlying health issues than 20 year olds?


All subjective. I know many in their early 60's that are drastically healthier and fitter than some 20 year olds, but I suppose on law of averages as your body ages obviously if you haven't cared for yourself well you will have more problems.


----------



## HMS_Dave (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Would you agree that on average 62 years old will have more underlying health issues than 20 year olds?


I would be so bold as to say that a 62 year old _potentially _might have more underlying health issues than 20 year olds but that a 20 year could have more more underlying health conditions than a 62 year old. It's hardly a given...


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Would you agree that on average 62 years old will have more underlying health issues than 20 year olds?



Would you agree that richer people have less health issues than the overall population, and cruise ship vacationers are much wealthier than the overall population?

Here's the thing - you're desperately trying to justify a position based on a single, very unusual population in a very unusual situation and extrapolate it. Worse yet, you're relying on a single interpretation of that data. Worse again, you've misunderstood Ionnadis' article (he does NOT say it isn't worse than flu, merely that it's *possible* that it might not be based on a specific limited dataset)

And let's note again, the article has not aged well. It would not now be possible to write: _"At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. " _in the US.


----------



## HMS_Dave (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> All things equal
> 
> If in a weeks time Sweden less CV deaths per 1M than UK would you say their strategy was correct?


No. It is a gamble that has no guaranteed and is not yet fully understood. I dont think pissing into the wind is a viable strategy when confronted with lives. Incidentally Sweden has the highest death rate of nordic countries and their PM is expecting a large increase!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> All things equal
> 
> If in a weeks time Sweden less CV deaths per 1M than UK would you say their strategy was correct?



Depends what you understand by their strategy and what you mean by "correct". Correct for Sweden, or correct for other countries?

The Sweden strategy relies on population compliance.  Firstly, what is correct for Sweden is not necessarily correct elsewhere - our population seems far less compliant, and is more densely populated.

Secondly, Sweden looks set to impose stricter measures this week anyway.

Personal view: The Sweden strategy has already failed. Compare where they are now vs adjacent Norway, which had more cases sooner, but responded much harder. They seem about to follow suit on cracking down, but have suffered many more deaths (Sweden has twice the population).


----------



## MarkF (6 Apr 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> No. It is a gamble that has no guaranteed and is not yet fully understood. I dont think pissing into the wind is a viable strategy when confronted with lives. Incidentally Sweden has the highest death rate of nordic countries and their PM is expecting a large increase!



But their government has explained their strategy and has broad public support despite the upcoming deaths, at least they know why & where they are heading. It'll be interesting, many months from now, to see what has happened and if that public support remains.


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Depends what you understand by their strategy and what you mean by "correct". Correct for Sweden, or correct for other countries?
> 
> The Sweden strategy relies on population compliance. Firstly, what is correct for Sweden is not necessarily correct elsewhere - our population seems far less compliant, and is more densely populated.
> 
> ...


Compare it to Denmark and there is way less difference even as Dn went total lockdown


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Compare it to Denmark and there is way less difference even as Dn went total lockdown



It's perfectly reasonable to have different views about whether Sweden has the right strategy for Sweden, and whether than strategy would translate to other countries. As I said above, my view on the Sweden strategy is purely personal (I have many friends in Sweden). I make no claims beyond that.

It's NOT reasonable to believe the virus is comparable to flu, which is where you started.


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

Also it will be most intersting to see how the following depression will eat at the fabric of society
It was calculated that austerity after 2008 killed 120000 people


----------



## HMS_Dave (6 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> But their government has explained their strategy and has broad public support despite the upcoming deaths, at least they know why & where they are heading. It'll be interesting, many months from now, to see what has happened and if that public support remains.


I agree mark but the government given advice is against the experts (scientists advice) "But the strategy is more controversial among scientists.

Some support the government, believing that it's better to bring in tighter controls only when they're needed.

Others fear the country is blindly heading for a cliff edge.

Professor Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler, speaking in her laboratory in the Karolinska Institute, fears many will die as a result of what she sees as risks being taken by the establishment.


But she claims the dissenting view is being ignored."

So who's expert advice are the Swedish government following?

EDITED due to quote error


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It's perfectly reasonable to have different views about whether Sweden has the right strategy for Sweden, and whether than strategy would translate to other countries. As I said above, my view on the Sweden strategy is purely personal (I have many friends in Sweden). I make no claims beyond that.
> 
> It's NOT reasonable to believe the virus is comparable to flu, which is where you started.


Sure, you can compare mortality rates between viruses, mortality rate from CV based on best tested popluations (cruisers, Iceland) is not 10x times higher as you claimed


----------



## marinyork (6 Apr 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...virus-contact-tracing-opportunity-experts-say

Article on contact tracing


----------



## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

Yesterday came news of 1st Midwife to die now another Nurse has died. We are quickly reaching or even gone past double figures. 
We have all the PPE we need it's called stay at home. They don't have that choice they do it because they care.
So really show you care for them and stay at home. 
It's simple if you just can't the bothered then people will die even maybe you.


----------



## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Compare it to Denmark and there is way less difference even as Dn went total lockdown


"total lockdown" isn't the impression I've got from the news and @steveindenmark


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Sure, you can compare mortality rates between viruses, mortality rate from CV based on best tested popluations (cruisers, Iceland) is not 10x times higher as you claimed



Your whole case is based on all of 12 deaths and is already out of date:

At the time of the Ionnadis summary of the Diamond Princess the toll numbered 8 deaths. Subsequently that's been proved wrong, the current number is 12.
In Iceland, there have been 4 deaths.
There is, as I was careful to empahsise, much uncertainty still, but if you really think the death rate is comparable to flu, you need to explain the overflowing morgues.


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Your whole case is based on all of 12 deaths and is already out of date:
> 
> At the time of the Ionnadis summary of the Diamond Princess the toll numbered 8 deaths. Subsequently that's been proved wrong, the current number is 12.
> In Iceland, there have been 4 deaths.
> There is, as I was careful to empahsise, much uncertainty still, but if you really think the death rate is comparable to flu, you need to explain the overflowing morgues.


Even with these updated nr mortality is that of flu


----------



## HMS_Dave (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Also it will be most intersting to see how the following depression will eat at the fabric of society
> It was calculated that austerity after 2008 killed 120000 people


Economies can be rebuilt. Much of Europe has been in ruins multiple times. The experts predict if left unchecked millions of lives would be lost. Millions. You cannot get them back, peoples moms, dads, sisters, brothers etc real people gone with no guarantees the economy wouldn't suffer. What seems the most reasonable humane choice is to follow what the scientists advise us.


----------



## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

Moms and Dads die of poverty as well


----------



## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

Now the "white van" men have turned up next door to cut the grass. 
Just what's wrong with people?


----------



## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> So really show you care for them and stay at home.
> It's simple if you just can't the bothered then people will die even maybe you.


You do no-one any favours pushing that unrealistic message. Some must go out to work, building medical kit or delivering other essentials. Others must go out because of the collapse of delivery services under the strain of increased demand. Yet more must go out for life-sustaining exercise. Implying that any of these are because they "can't be bothered" is offensive and unhelpful. Please stick to promoting the rules, not an incorrect simplified message, and concentrate your fire on those breaking the rules, like leaving isolation early, shaking hands or weekending in holiday homes - and maybe stuff done by people not in the governments too!


----------



## HMS_Dave (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Moms and Dads die of poverty as well


I've specifically addressed the poverty issue you brought up in that very message.


----------



## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now the "white van" men have turned up next door to cut the grass.
> Just what's wrong with people?


What's wrong with that? Council grass-cutters are still working here. Stuff hasn't stopped growing because of a pandemic.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (6 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> You do no-one any favours pushing that unrealistic message. Some must go out to work, building medical kit or delivering other essentials. Others must go out because of the collapse of delivery services under the strain of increased demand. Yet more must go out for life-sustaining exercise. Implying that any of these are because they "can't be bothered" is offensive and unhelpful. Please stick to promoting the rules, not an incorrect simplified message, and concentrate your fire on those breaking the rules, like leaving isolation early, shaking hands or weekending in holiday homes - and maybe stuff done by people not in the governments too!



I think you're inferring something that he didn't express. The phrase was "if you just can't be bothered" and my reading of that is that he is excluding those who need to be circulating.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Even with these updated nr mortality is that of flu



The point is not just that they are wrong, but that they are cherrypicked very small numbers.


----------



## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I think you're inferring something that he didn't express. The phrase was "if you just can't be bothered" and my reading of that is that he is excluding those who need to be circulating.


Likewise. I think you're adding caveats that weren't there.


----------



## MarkF (6 Apr 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> I agree mark but the government given advice is against the experts (scientists advice) "But the strategy is more controversial among scientists.
> 
> Some support the government, believing that it's better to bring in tighter controls only when they're needed.
> 
> ...



That of the national epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell. I've read the opposition to his opinions too, but what resonates with me is his belief that we too late and now we are just "pushing" the problem along. Either way, lessons will be have been learnt for the future.


----------



## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

Swiss news: mask wearing obligatory outdoors in Lombardy, discussion of whether it's pointless given lack of evidence, Swiss stock market nervous, car sales falling, summary of various international news already discussed here including Boris hospitalisation, further suspensions of sports


----------



## Edwardoka (6 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The point is not just that they are wrong, but that they are cherrypicked very small numbers.


Not only that but when you combine exponential growth and a significant lag between a case being confirmed and its resolution, the difference in percentage between total deaths/total cases on a given day and actual mortality rate is unintuitively large.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (6 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> I think it's needing a ventilator in ICU where your chances are low.
> 
> More data is released each day now, I'll post some tomorrow. Given it's ultra densely populated area, with it's multi generational housing, l'd guess only a small % of people who think they are infected, or are infected, would actually want/choose to go to the hospital right now.



The number of cases is where it’s got serious enough to reach hospital. If you compare deaths to cases it’s 10%. The figures are saying 10% of those who are serious enough to reach hospital with Covid19 are dying.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Not only that but when you combine exponential growth and a significant lag between a case being confirmed and its resolution, the difference in percentage between total deaths/total cases on a given day and actual mortality rate is unintuitively large.



Absolutely. Plus, different people mean different things by "mortality rate"

Thes a really good discussion here, doubtless more up to date data would change the numbers. 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#what-do-we-know-about-the-risk-of-dying-from-covid-19

Overall case fatality rate estimated in the region 12-24x higher than flu


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## Ming the Merciless (6 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Absolutely. Plus, different people mean different things by "mortality rate"
> 
> Thes a really good discussion here, doubtless more up to date data would change the numbers.
> 
> ...



Interesting those graphs don’t break them both down into the same age brackets.


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## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Interesting those graphs don’t break them both down into the same age brackets.



I think that's because the source data was compiled with different age brackets


----------



## Racing roadkill (6 Apr 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> Im no virologist or barely know what im talking about but it seems bizarre that 73% of those with no obvious symptoms actual had some pheumonia.


Not really. ‘The usual Symptoms’ ( high temperature, fatigue coughing) are caused mostly by the immune system response. If there isn’t much of an immune system, there will be less of ‘the usual symptoms’ and the virus will get to its favoured target ( the lungs ) relatively unabated, so “no symptoms shown, but damage to the lungs apparent” is not that surprising. It’s also pretty much par for the course, on that type of cruise ship / cruise, where there will be an unusually high concentration of people in the highest risk groups ( elderly / infirm / mixture of both ).


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## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> What's wrong with that? Council grass-cutters are still working here. Stuff hasn't stopped growing because of a pandemic.



Don't tell me things have not stoped growing I know that better than most. 
As unlike the 2 cowboys in a van when I did the same job i was both qualified and signed up with the taxman. 
What wrong right well 
Next door are in an at risk group as are 2 other neighbours close to her.
They don't need 2 to do the job , they clearly had no idea about social distancing. 
Just who else are they going to and just carrying on as if nothing is happening ? 
They are not going it at for free they get paid. Cash in hand again just handed over as if it's ok. 
Council grass cutting is down to the LA I doubt they just rack up in a van and go door to door. 
Exposing lord knows who to a totally unnecessary risk.


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## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> You do no-one any favours pushing that unrealistic message. Some must go out to work, building medical kit or delivering other essentials. Others must go out because of the collapse of delivery services under the strain of increased demand. Yet more must go out for life-sustaining exercise. Implying that any of these are because they "can't be bothered" is offensive and unhelpful. Please stick to promoting the rules, not an incorrect simplified message, and concentrate your fire on those breaking the rules, like leaving isolation early, shaking hands or weekending in holiday homes - and maybe stuff done by people not in the governments too!




The fall out from this is everyones problem. The time for being all nice about has gone. 
It should be pretty clear just who I mean clearly you just want to pick holes. 
You're doing no favours by trying to find anyway possible to bend the rules. 
I will direct the fire as you put it to who I like. I'm sick of seeing people who are clearly just taking the pee. 
It's not a lot to ask that as my wife approaches her 20 years in Nursing it won't be her last. 
If you don't care or don't get it then fine just don't expect the ones who's job it is care to care for you. 
Sadly she and 1000's of others will even if it means they maybe the ones who end up paying a high cost for doing it.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Interesting from the Graun on the proposed relaxations in Austria.

A single Euro wide app sounds an excellent idea, with my holiday in France still just about possible I guess.

Of course having already put Brexit above breathing on ventilators, the likelihood of HMG taking part is low.



> The Austrian exit strategy will also include the introduction of tracking apps to trace citizens’ movements and ensure they are not breaking curfew rules. They should be used by the whole of the country. Those who don’t have a mobile phone will be required to wear a special key-ring style device, the chancellor said at the weekend. The majority of Austrians are said to be in favour of the measures.
> 
> In Germany, the Robert Koch is developing a similar app to that due to be introduced in Austria. It is being developed in conjunction with a European app which 130 researchers are currently developing, and will warn people if they might have had contact with infected persons. Its use is expected to be anonymous and voluntary, although surveys show a large number of Germans are prepared to use it if it leads to a relaxation of lockdown rules. The ultimate aim should be to have a single, Europe-wide tracking app.


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## icowden (6 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> It was a question


A bit late to answer it but the simple answer is that nipping behind a bush tends to be a very clean operation for most gents, as compared with the tribulations that ladies must face. It's a point, shoot, shake and away and no different for a bloke than touching any other area of skin on the body (usually). Hand sanitiser is obviously a useful addition to the repertoire.

Before the lockdown there was puzzlement in theatres etc that there were suddenly long queues for the gents - when usually there are none. The reason was that everyone was now hand washing.


----------



## icowden (6 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> The fall out from this is everyones problem. The time for being all nice about has gone.
> It should be pretty clear just who I mean clearly you just want to pick holes.
> You're doing no favours by trying to find anyway possible to bend the rules.



It's not always clear cut though. For example our window cleaner is a hard worker, out in all weathers and cleaning windows is his sole source of income to support his family. Should we tell him not to clean the windows? If he's outside and we are inside, that's maintaining a safe distance. And the cash can be left on his windscreen for him to pick up. Or is it better to be absolutely safe and make him solely reliant on benefits if he can get them?


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## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

icowden said:


> It's not always clear cut though. For example our window cleaner is a hard worker, out in all weathers and cleaning windows is his sole source of income to support his family. Should we tell him not to clean the windows? If he's outside and we are inside, that's maintaining a safe distance. And the cash can be left on his windscreen for him to pick up. Or is it better to be absolutely safe and make him solely reliant on benefits if he can get them?



Can understand why he want's to keep going and not let anyone down. I'd feel the same with many of my old customers. 
But who else is he visiting and who else is he interacting without? Some of his other customers may well be at risk.
No disrespect to you or him but window clearing is not essential at the moment.
Only he can way up the risk of carry on both personally and financially. But equally it's not one that can be taken in isolation either others are at risk from him and equally he at risk from them. If he is the only bread winner then he's no good to them being off sick or even worse.


----------



## IaninSheffield (6 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Interesting those graphs don’t break them both down into the same age brackets.





roubaixtuesday said:


> I think that's because the source data was compiled with different age brackets


I've found some of the visualisations produced recently, by various bodies, to be rather troubling. An uncritical or inexperienced eye might fail to identify the kinds of anomalies you identify. Some (many?) lack the acuity needed to intepret complex data presented in apparently simple way - what proportion of the population understand the implications of a logarithmic or other non-linear scale for example?


----------



## Adam4868 (6 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Can understand why he want's to keep going and not let anyone down. I'd feel the same with many of my old customers.
> But who else is he visiting and who else is he interacting without? Some of his other customers may well be at risk.
> No disrespect to you or him but window clearing is not essential at the moment.
> Only he can way up the risk of carry on both personally and financially. But equally it's not one that can be taken in isolation either others are at risk from him and equally he at risk from them. If he is the only bread winner then he's no good to them being off sick or even worse.


I get your points and the risks involved but you do know some people have to still earn a living if they can.
I went to a job last week bit of rendering and repointing a garden wall,two of us (my son he did nowt !) Click and collect sand and cement from builders yard paid online.Woman left extension lead through window and money in envelope.
All in all I had less contact/closeness to people than going to Lidl yesterday.
Forgot to add I pay tax like everyone else 😁


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## marinyork (6 Apr 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> I've found some of the visualisations produced recently, by various bodies, to be rather troubling. An uncritical or inexperienced eye might fail to identify the kinds of anomalies you identify. Some (many?) lack the acuity needed to intepret complex data presented in apparently simple way - what proportion of the population understand the implications of a logarithmic or other non-linear scale for example?



A high proportion of the population understand.

Unfortunately the government rather being like the great and the good of cyclechat and add on extra factors on top think the population is rather a lot dumber than they really are, don't up their game to produce better graphics and explanations.


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## oldwheels (6 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> "total lockdown" isn't the impression I've got from the news and @steveindenmark


Mebbe just different interpretations. My sister in law who lives in Copenhagen thinks it is pretty near total lockdown.


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## SpokeyDokey (6 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now the "white van" men have turned up next door to cut the grass.
> Just what's wrong with people?



As long as they are maintaining the 2m separation distance and neither they or the home owner has CV or CV symptoms then they are not breaking the law.

Edit: if the two of them come from the same household then they are within the law as well.


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## PK99 (6 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I'm not in any way attempting to downplay the seriousness of this pandemic, but how would "conventional" flu stack up in your assessment above? It kills, on average, 17,000 UK inhabitants a year. Some people get a sniffle, some people die. Some people get it and never know. Is there a fundamental difference between it and Corona virus?



Yes. Even without a vaccine for flu, it is spread over months. Corona virus could rip through more than half the population in a few weeks.

There were suggestions that the EXCESS deaths over the year will be far less dramatic than the current headlines suggest. Essentially, for many the virus concentrates annual probability if dying into a few weeks.

The difference and issue remains overwhelming health services in the short term.


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## icowden (6 Apr 2020)

Well, usefully we can study America as Trump has gone for the "just die already" strategy.


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## Racing roadkill (6 Apr 2020)

The death stats for the U.K. have shown another decrease in rate today ( another 434 ) which although is never going to be exactly great news, is encouraging ( if you put your big boy pants on for a moment ). This again points to the degree of lockdown we’re in right now being over the top, as ( given the I.P. of the virus) this means the escalation rate of serious cases must have already had the lid on, before the harsh lockdown started. I await the next government trick / goal post shift in how numbers are derived, in order to justify this overly heavy handed response.


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## kingrollo (6 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Yes. Even without a vaccine for flu, it is spread over months. Corona virus could rip through more than half the population in a few weeks.
> 
> There were suggestions that the EXCESS deaths over the year will be far less dramatic than the current headlines suggest. Essentially, for many the virus concentrates annual probability if dying into a few weeks.
> 
> The difference and issue remains overwhelming health services in the short term.


Can somebody produce a graph showing the available vaccines for seasonal flu v the available vaccines for covid 19?


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## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> [...] no idea about social distancing. [...] Cash in hand again just handed over as if it's ok. [...]


That and probably more is not good. However, it was completely missing from the previous post. Neither grass-cutting nor driving a white van has yet been outlawed or even advised against by a minister on a chat show.


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## kingrollo (6 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> The death stats for the U.K. have shown another decrease in rate today ( another 434 ) which although is never going to be exactly great news, is encouraging ( if you put your big boy pants on for a moment ). This again points to the degree of lockdown we’re in right now being over the top, as ( given the I.P. of the virus) this means the escalation rate of serious cases must have already had the lid on, before the harsh lockdown started. I await the next government trick / goal post shift in how numbers are derived, in order to justify this overly heavy handed response.



As a slight aside - I don't think the lockdown has hit the death totals yet.
If you say it's 5 days from infection s to symptoms - around 7 days after symptoms you either get well or develop breathing problems - so say 10 days after symptoms you enter the hospital network - and sadly for some 14 days in hospital - you don't make it.

So IMO the effects of the lockdown are yet to relate to deaths - which might be good news (fingers crossed) 

But something else has caused the death numbers to fall - maybe they haven't - maybe admin will catch up Tues and weds - or hopefully only the weaker strains are being transmitted...


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## kingrollo (6 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> That and probably more is not good. However, it was completely missing from the previous post. Neither grass-cutting nor driving a white van has yet been outlawed or even advised against by a minister on a chat show.


I've heard that the covid 19 affect is making van man turn up on time - and his van more reliable.


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## PK99 (6 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Can somebody produce a graph showing the available vaccines for seasonal flu v the available vaccines for covid 19?




Seasonal Flu: some vaccines of variable effectiveness and different uses across age groups

Covid-19 No vaccine of any form and none expected with a year

Will that do? Sorry its not a graph.


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## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> The fall out from this is everyones problem. The time for being all nice about has gone.


OK then, I'll put this less nicely: stop farking spreading disinformation.



> It should be pretty clear just who I mean clearly you just want to pick holes.


Basic simple accuracy is not picking holes.



> You're doing no favours by trying to find anyway possible to bend the rules.


I'm not bending the rules. I'm following the rules, but the actual rules and not some imaginary ones made up by angry forum people.

I mean, I'm irritated by what's usually an hour trip to a pharmacy taking 2½ hours today, but that's a mixture of rules and (IMO) mismanagement, but let's cut them some slack because it's very difficult times.



> If you don't care or don't get it then fine just don't expect the ones who's job it is care to care for you.
> Sadly she and 1000's of others will even if it means they maybe the ones who end up paying a high cost for doing it.


I do care and remember, I've at least two fairly close relatives working in the NHS and two very close working on essential related services but the farking misinformation being spread helps no-one. In fact, it even puts them at risk because idiots hurl abuse at them for disobeying the misleading "stay at home" instruction as they go to/from work - how long before someone goes that bit further and assaults one of them? I could ride one way with one of them and return home as my daily exercise (because people hesitate to pick fights with a tall guy wearing black and a skull-print mask), but then even she's still got to get home - and there's all her colleagues. Aren't you at all worried for your wife if this "stay at home" no-exceptions myth does catch on?

So please, I beg you, stick to the real rules. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/6/made


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## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> This again points to the degree of lockdown we’re in right now being over the top, as ( given the I.P. of the virus) this means the escalation rate of serious cases must have already had the lid on, before the harsh lockdown started



Admirable as your ability to hold strong opinions with absolute certainty is, this does beg a few questions:

1) What is the average incubation period from infection to symptoms?

2) what is the average period from symptoms to hospitalization

3) what is the average period from hospitalization to death?

4) How long does it take to report deaths?

5) How noisy is the data from day to day,?

6) How have weekends affected reported numbers in the last couple of weeks?

In reality, it is too soon to see what effect the lockdown has had yet judged by deaths. Hospital admissions appeared to spike yesterday I understand which is bad news. Time will tell, evidence from other countries suggests we should maybe start to see clearer evidence in a few days time. Here's hoping.


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## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> hopefully only the weaker strains are being transmitted...



I don't think there's much evidence of significant difference between strains of the virus yet?


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## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> No disrespect to you or him but window clearing is not essential at the moment.


No disrespect to you but that doesn't seem correct: the law clearly says that "upkeep, maintenance and functioning of the household" is permitted. Window-cleaning businesses have not been closed so people who are not physically able to clean their own windows are not yet legally compelled to see the mostly-off-limits world through a layer of filth.


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## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Some more reality for those here, incredibly *still* downplaying the seriousness of the virus and comparing to flu. 

The Chair of New York City Council health committee:

_It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*. 

Soon we'll start “temporary interment”. This likely will be done by using a NYC park for burials (yes you read that right). Trenches will be dug for 10 caskets in a line._

Full Twitter thread:


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155196234522625


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## kingrollo (6 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I don't think there's much evidence of significant difference between strains of the virus yet?


No - it was just a suggestion as to lower deaths reported over the past couple of days.

The strain doesn't actually get weaker - but a milder case of CV is more likely to be transmitted because it doesn't floor the host.


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## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

Belgian (rtbf) news: more discharges than admissions again but a new high of deaths, government requisitions university labs to start producing testing kits (pic), controversy as police not handling covid-19-related child custody disputes well, Brussels Airlines shutdown extended (pic), case of covid-19 in a worker at a fresh produce warehouse of Carrefour (pic) with concerns for public safety and workers complaining about PPE and procedures, delays in deciding the fate of various summer festivals, mask/scarf-wearing compulsory in two Italian regions now, QE2's speech and Boris's hospitalisation, and a new lockdown kids educational TV show starts: "Y'a pas école" ("There's No School")


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## SpokeyDokey (6 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> No disrespect to you but that doesn't seem correct: the law clearly says that "upkeep, maintenance and functioning of the household" is permitted. Window-cleaning businesses have not been closed so people who are not physically able to clean their own windows are not yet legally compelled to see the mostly-off-limits world through a layer of filth.



I share your frustration on this misunderstanding by a good number of people.

To be fair the media has had a hand in misreporting, with subtle wordplay that is either intentional or not (who can tell?), the restrictions.

The basic legislation for 'white van man' and others is contained in the relevant Statute at 6 (2) (f) here;

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made

Restrictions on movement
6.—(1) _*During the emergency period, no person may leave the place where they are living without reasonable excuse.

(2) For the purposes of paragraph (1), a reasonable excuse includes the need—*_

(a)to obtain basic necessities, including food and medical supplies for those in the same household (including any pets or animals in the household) or for vulnerable persons and supplies for the essential upkeep, maintenance and functioning of the household, or the household of a vulnerable person, or to obtain money, including from any business listed in Part 3 of Schedule 2;

(b)to take exercise either alone or with other members of their household;

(c)to seek medical assistance, including to access any of the services referred to in paragraph 37 or 38 of Schedule 2;

(d)to provide care or assistance, including relevant personal care within the meaning of paragraph 7(3B) of Schedule 4 to the Safeguarding of Vulnerable Groups Act 2006(3), to a vulnerable person, or to provide emergency assistance;

(e)to donate blood;

_*(f)to travel for the purposes of work or to provide voluntary or charitable services, where it is not reasonably possible for that person to work, or to provide those services, from the place where they are living;*_

etc (other points not quoted as they go on too long.

***

Furthermore:

Boris's letter to the populace also includes this line:

_*You can travel to and from work but should work from home if you can. *

***_

And Gov.UK advice published 29.03.20 contains this advice:

*1. When am I allowed to leave the house?*
You should only leave the house for very limited purposes:


shopping for basic necessities, for example food and medicine, which must be as infrequent as possible
one form of exercise a day, for example a run, walk, or cycle - alone or with members of your household
any medical need, including to donate blood, avoid or escape risk of injury or harm, or to provide care or to help a vulnerable person
_*travelling for work purposes, but only where you cannot work from home*_
***

Additionally, this advice comes with the explicit caveats that the 2m separation rule must be adhered to at all times and the person going to work, and any other persons at the place of work, must not have CV or display any CV symptoms that _may_ be CV.


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## marinyork (6 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> _*(f)to travel for the purposes of work or to provide voluntary or charitable services, where it is not reasonably possible for that person to work, or to provide those services, from the place where they are living;*_



Really fascinating that it includes charitable services as I did not know that. 

There is very little of that going on btw, it's all telephone, I was just very curious. Also suggests travel to somewhere with equipment to do on-line is permissible in rare circumstances. It's not a factor as everything's got pulled, but nevertheless interesting.


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## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> No disrespect to you but that doesn't seem correct: the law clearly says that "upkeep, maintenance and functioning of the household" is permitted. Window-cleaning businesses have not been closed so people who are not physically able to clean their own windows are not yet legally compelled to see the mostly-off-limits world through a layer of filth.



Clearly you need every thing in black and white and unless it is you can't see past it. Morally I don't need the law to tell me what's right and I think over the 4000 plus and counting recent bereaved families don't need it spelling out to them either.


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## Eziemnaik (6 Apr 2020)

But that's at best second class health care system there in US so it is not a surprise it is being overwhelmed 


roubaixtuesday said:


> Some more reality for those here, incredibly *still* downplaying the seriousness of the virus and comparing to flu.
> 
> The Chair of New York City Council health committee:
> 
> ...


----------



## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Clearly you need every thing in black and white and unless it is you can't see past it. Morally I don't need the law to tell me what's right and I think over the 4000 plus and counting recent bereaved families don't need it spelling out to them either.


Could you explain how you believe it's moral to try to trick vulnerable people to live behind shoot-covered windows by misrepresenting the rules? Maybe you follow Nietzschean morality (if they are too weak to clean windows then they do not deserve them?) but I do not.


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## RecordAceFromNew (6 Apr 2020)

Don't know if anybody has mentioned already, the millions of "game changer" antibody tests Boris said he ordered and are to be rolled out via Amazon/Boots in April are nothing of the sort. Who would have thunk it?

According to Oxford, it is at least a month away because nothing they have tested passed muster, and the German think it will be 3 months away.

Don't think any of us will be tested, found immune, and get back to our daily business as if nothing has happened any time soon.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (6 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Don't know if anybody has mentioned already, the millions of "game changer" antibody tests Boris said he ordered and are to be rolled out via Amazon/Boots in April are nothing of the sort. Who would have thunk it?
> 
> According to Oxford, it is at least a month away because nothing they have tested passed muster, and the German think it will be 3 months away.
> 
> Don't think any of us will be tested, found immune, and get back to our daily business as if nothing has happened any time soon.



From the same article it appears that there are other countries that are having problems sourcing kits that meet the required standard or are several months away from developing one. Not just the UK suffering. Sounds like the issue is developing something that works reliably in the home environment if I am reading the article correctly.

_'Interestingly we are not the only ones who having difficulty identifying commercial tests that work in a home test kit format. The Spanish apparently returned test kits that were not working, and the Germans who are developing their own sensitive kits believe they are three months away from getting these available and validated. Not test has been acclaimed by health authorities as having the necessary characteristics for screening people accurately for protective immunity.'_


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## marinyork (6 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Don't know if anybody has mentioned already, the millions of "game changer" antibody tests Boris said he ordered and are to be rolled out via Amazon/Boots in April are nothing of the sort. Who would have thunk it?
> 
> According to Oxford, it is at least a month away because nothing they have tested passed muster, and the German think it will be 3 months away.
> 
> Don't think any of us will be tested, found immune, and get back to our daily business as if nothing has happened any time soon.



It's a very disappointing article from a leading person who has knowledge and doesn't want to share it.

It's been alleged the bad batches in Spain were only 30% accurate - although curiously enough very little comment has been made about the non-dodgy ones. I think this was said as much as a week ago.

It's been alleged the kits UK have played around with are 50% accurate. It isn't specified what 50% means and whether it actually performs satisfactorily in some subgroups.


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## Johnno260 (6 Apr 2020)

The issue with the stay at home instructions is it relies on common sense, and for people to not be selfish.Both of which are issues these days.

Sunbathing in a park even while maintaining social distancing isn’t a reason to do it.

Window cleaners and gardeners are in my opinion not essential but convenience, if it’s cash in hand work then that has issues considering the virus can be long lived on some surfaces.

I had to go into town as the bulbs had blown on my wife’s car, and the 13-15 group of teenagers roaming around causing issues is also a risk, I know of some of this group as they’re always in trouble for shoplifting, the parents are at fault for allowing them to roam the streets in a pack, and the teens are idiots for probably thinking they’re young and immune.

Toms reaction is justified his wife has to care for clowns like these, same as mine, and it’s the main reason if we’re locked down harder it’s justified thanks to morons.

What we can learn from this in any future issues is treat the public as you would a child as many have less mental capacity than a small child, some won’t act sensible, morally etc


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## Racing roadkill (6 Apr 2020)

Again, apologies for the wail link, but

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8191837/England-announces-403-coronavirus-deaths.html
Things might well be looking up, the increasing natural U.V. levels are probably starting to help.


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## Rocky (6 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Again, apologies for the wail link, but
> 
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8191837/England-announces-403-coronavirus-deaths.html
> Things might well be looking up, the increasing natural U.V. levels are probably starting to help.


If that's the case and UV stops the spread of the virus, why is it spreading in Africa, Iran, Florida, Australia? I'm afraid it is fake news and there is no evidence for your assertions (I'm not even going to click on the Daily Mail link).


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## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I had to go into town as the bulbs had blown on my wife’s car,


Personally, I think that's not an essential journey because motorists should have spare bulbs in the boot toolkit and you can buy replacements with the weekly food shop or the next time you refuel, but the law arguably says it is, so I just have to accept it.



> Toms reaction is justified his wife has to care for clowns like these, same as mine, and it’s the main reason if we’re locked down harder it’s justified thanks to morons.


Have I understood correctly that the above says a carer wife justifies someone angrily spreading disinformation?



> What we can learn from this in any future issues is treat the public as you would a child as many have less mental capacity than a small child, some won’t act sensible, morally etc


And some will describe anyone choosing a journey or task that you wouldn't as "essential" are "morons" and anyone making the same debatable decisions as them is justified. It's disappointingly tribal. Thank heavens most of the people out around my village are not snarling at each other like some on here - instead, they're smiling and waving at each other as they enjoy their homes, fetch food and supplies, take their daily, or go to and from work or medical sites.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> As a slight aside - I don't think the lockdown has hit the death totals yet.
> If you say it's 5 days from infection s to symptoms - around 7 days after symptoms you either get well or develop breathing problems - so say 10 days after symptoms you enter the hospital network - and sadly for some 14 days in hospital - you don't make it.
> 
> So IMO the effects of the lockdown are yet to relate to deaths - which might be good news (fingers crossed)
> ...


Yes, there has already been an apparent drop in figures on Sundays and Mondays. Unless people are naturally resistant to dying on a weekend, a reporting lag seems likely. It's not a good day for judging trends. Wednesday would probably be better for that.


----------



## vickster (6 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> If that's the case and UV stops the spread of the virus, why is it spreading in Africa, Iran, Florida, Australia? I'm afraid it is fake news and there is no evidence for your assertions (I'm not even going to click on the Daily Mail link).


Didn’t the dep CMO mention UV light and heat in one of the previous briefings? Maybe week before last?


----------



## Rocky (6 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Didn’t the dep CMO mention UV light and heat in one of the previous briefings?


But that isn't the reason why the numbers of deaths are dropping..........people aren't spending enough time outside. I think that it's probably a statistical blip. It's going to take at least another week until the impact of the lockdown shows an effect.

I don't know if the deputy CMO mentioned it, but I'm asking myself if UV light has an impact, why are hot sunny countries experiencing a spread of the virus?


----------



## MrGrumpy (6 Apr 2020)

There was decrease last weekend as well , let’s see what the stats are come Friday!


----------



## marinyork (6 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> From the same article it appears that there are other countries that are having problems sourcing kits that meet the required standard or are several months away from developing one. Not just the UK suffering. Sounds like the issue is developing something that works reliably in the home environment if I am reading the article correctly.



Update from Chris Witty tonight. He has 'confidence' in the tests being developed, but they aren't quite there yet. 

Although a month plus is a long way away, it's still going to have a very substantial impact on dealing with the virus.


----------



## vickster (6 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> But that isn't the reason why the numbers of deaths are dropping..........people aren't spending enough time outside. I think that it's probably a statistical blip. It's going to take at least another week until the impact of the lockdown shows an effect.
> 
> I don't know if the CMO mentioned it, but I'm asking myself if UV light has an impact, why are hot sunny countries experiencing a spread of the virus?


They’re not that hot and sunny at the moment? People are catching it indoors not outside?

I didn’t see the post you referred to, just yours (due to long standing use of a certain forum function  )


----------



## Rocky (6 Apr 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> There was decrease last weekend as well , let’s see what the stats are come Friday!


Don't forget these deaths are from people who were infected probably three weeks ago. It is far too soon to see the recent good weather impacting on transmission.


----------



## BoldonLad (6 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> I could be pursuaded that what we are doing/following is the least worst option. But we've so little future information to go on, whilst being assailed with daily death figures but being given very little information on the lockdowns present and future societal cost.
> 
> I can't believe these figures, how can gloves cost 14p? A single use apron £2.50? I'd have guessed an apron cost less than 5p. I am getting through £50+ worth of gear a shift, the medical staff a huge amount more!
> 
> View attachment 512679



I am surprised NHS is paying so little for those items. Procurement was not their strong point, when I worked, admittedly 15 years ago, but, no reason to suppose anything has changed.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 Apr 2020)

While it's a hot topic, there's an article in the Guardian today - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/scientists-ask-could-summer-heat-help-beat-covid-19. It doesn't give clear answers.


----------



## Rocky (6 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> They’re not that hot and sunny at the moment? People are catching it indoors not outside?
> 
> I didn’t see the post you referred to, just yours (due to long standing use of a certain forum function  )


Ultimately, it may have an impact on the transmission of the virus but that will take three or so weeks to feed through into reduced mortality. Sadly the poor people who are currently dying were infected three or four weeks ago (there's a lead time of up to 2 weeks before symptoms show and then up to a week before pneumonia and breathing problems and then a further week after that). It was claimed in the DM article (I think) that there was a link between reducing deaths and the sunny weather. That simply can't be the case with this lead time.


----------



## marinyork (6 Apr 2020)

Italy's deaths go back up again today (in reality who knows, just all sorts of errors and variations). 18th straight day of new deaths 500 or more. 17 out of the last 18 days with deaths 600 or more.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> While it's a hot topic, there's an article in the Guardian today - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/scientists-ask-could-summer-heat-help-beat-covid-19. It doesn't give clear answers.


In the colder damper weather - you maybe more likely to sneeze or have a runny nose (touch you're face)

Meaning maybe the virus isn't passed on quite so much ...recall those weeks where it just rained ??


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> But that's at best second class health care system there in US so it is not a surprise it is being overwhelmed



Right.

So it's both definitely no worse than flu, and simultaneously so much worse that it overwhelms the US healthcare system which flu doesn't.

Got it.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> In the colder damper weather - you maybe more likely to sneeze or have a runny nose (touch you're face)
> 
> Meaning maybe the virus isn't passed on quite so much ...recall those weeks where it just rained ??


Perhaps. There are unknowns with both the virus and the seasonal immunity of humans. Which is why it said that the article doesn't give clear answers. It is however clear that the virus thrives in a wide climatic range.

Ben Neuman: ''“This virus started in near-freezing conditions in China, and is rapidly growing both in Iceland and on the equator in Brazil and Ecuador. ''

''“I am sure seasonal variations in the virus’s behaviour will play a role in its spread,” said virologist Michael Skinner at Imperial College London. “But compared with the effect we are having with social distancing, it will be a very minor influence. It may produce some marginal effects but these will not be a substitute for self-isolation.” ''


----------



## Pat "5mph" (6 Apr 2020)

Meanwhile in Glasgow:
the Green, one of the main parks, was quite busy earlier on.
Families, cyclists, joggers - a police van on patrol too!
There's no way some of those people, walking in close proximity, are from the same household.
Two elderly ladies, one with token dog, chatting merrily next to each other.
In my block of flats, visiting has been happening.
Small shops, where social distancing is impossible to adhere to, are trading.
People wearing gloves and masks, then touching stuff, then touching their face.
Declared deaths from corona virus in Scotland to date: 222.


----------



## Johnno260 (6 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Personally, I think that's not an essential journey because motorists should have spare bulbs in the boot toolkit and you can buy replacements with the weekly food shop or the next time you refuel, but the law arguably says it is, so I just have to accept it.



true and my bulb kit had a main bulb, and a side light bulb, both sides had blown, and I needed to replace a main as well, I didn’t have enough, and the same 501 5W5 is used on my number plate and those had blown as well.

So I needed bulbs and fuses.

No one was at Halfords the items were put on a bench outside the store with the contactless card reader, by far the best social distancing I have seen at a store.

So not essential? I will tell my wife to call the hospital and say she doesn’t have transport, to make her shift as I suppose lights aren’t essential either.

My cars MOT has expired and my tax so with me working from home it’s sorn,I know the garages are open but it’s a morale choice over a connivence one.

But ho hum I’m sure I am the issue at the moment and not the dickheads breaking government guide lines by sun bathing and racing their motorbike around.

And people in my village are rather cordial, all the old people are cared for etc everyone waves and is happy as well, sorry if I take offence to muppets making morally bad choices, but like I said sun bathing is essential.


----------



## Johnno260 (6 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> In the colder damper weather - you maybe more likely to sneeze or have a runny nose (touch you're face)
> 
> Meaning maybe the virus isn't passed on quite so much ...recall those weeks where it just rained ??


And people cram into cinemas and such places more in the cold and wet months.

so coughs sneezes etc pass stuff easier.


----------



## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> But ho hum I’m sure I am the issue at the moment and not the dickheads breaking government guide lines by sun bathing and racing their motorbike around.


No, those are definitely daffodils, but remember that the rants I objected to were directed at people daring to have their grass cut and windows cleaned (or doing that for others), which I hope you'd agree is no more dodgy than making a special trip to buy routine car consumables (assuming they're not no-distance cash-in-hand daffodils).


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (6 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> From the same article it appears that there are other countries that are having problems sourcing kits that meet the required standard or are several months away from developing one. Not just the UK suffering. *Sounds like the issue is developing something that works reliably in the home environment if I am reading the article correctly.*
> 
> _'Interestingly we are not the only ones who having difficulty identifying commercial tests that work in a home test kit format. The Spanish apparently returned test kits that were not working, and the Germans who are developing their own sensitive kits believe they are three months away from getting these available and validated. Not test has been acclaimed by health authorities as having the necessary characteristics for screening people accurately for protective immunity.'_



That's the basis of the Government's strategy - the "game changer" is to test everybody so people know whether they are still vulnerable to catching it - the Government did provisionally order 17.5 millions tests. Obviously if what works requires special equipment operated by specialists the strategy is a dead duck.

The fact of the matter, is actually no antibody test has been approved by PHE for use even by hospital doctors, let alone Joe Public. Additionally, major concerns are raised by medical practitioners about people using kits at home. 

There is of course the little matter that nobody knows how long one would be immune for after catching it.



marinyork said:


> *It's a very disappointing article from a leading person who has knowledge and doesn't want to share it.
> *
> It's been alleged the bad batches in Spain were only 30% accurate - although curiously enough *very little comment has been made about the non-dodgy ones.* I think this was said as much as a week ago.
> 
> It's been alleged the kits UK have played around with are 50% accurate. It isn't specified what 50% means and whether it actually performs satisfactorily in some subgroups.



Are you sure you aren't shooting the messenger? He has stated none of them work well enough for the purpose - there are no non-dodgy ones. They are working with 9 companies.

Frankly this is just another example of the unending list of over promises and under deliveries by the government. What exactly did you expect from the people who told you there are unicorns in sunny uplands?


----------



## Johnno260 (6 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> No, those are definitely daffodils, but remember that the rants I objected to were directed at people daring to have their grass cut and windows cleaned (or doing that for others), which I hope you'd agree is no more dodgy than making a special trip to buy routine car consumables (assuming they're not no-distance cash-in-hand daffodils).



Cash in hand is riskier than contactless for sure, but the risk is probably generally the same.

But like I said, no car no nurse at work, it’s why I also purchased 4 bulb kits and a pack of fuses to cover such issues in the future, and all the boxes got rubbed down with an alcohol based cleaner before they entered the car but yup it was totally not essential to have working lights.

So a trip to keep a car on the road and keep a nurse in work vs someone having their windows cleaned is that even a comparison?


----------



## winjim (6 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> The fact of the matter, is actually no antibody test has been approved by PHE for use even by *hospital doctors*, let alone Joe Public.


That's biomedical and clinical scientists you're thinking of.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 Apr 2020)

Intensive care for Johnson.


----------



## PK99 (6 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Intensive care for Johnson.



source please?


----------



## Buck (6 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I'm not in any way attempting to downplay the seriousness of this pandemic, but how would "conventional" flu stack up in your assessment above? It kills, on average, 17,000 UK inhabitants a year. Some people get a sniffle, some people die. Some people get it and never know. Is there a fundamental difference between it and Corona virus?



Interestingly we don’t test people for flu per se but we do vaccinate.

Whilst we don’t always know which strain the dominant flu season will be, in the last two years has seen us move to a quadrivalent vaccine covering the four main strains and for over 65s we now have the a-Tiv (the adjuvanted vaccine). These have proved to be effective in reducing the flu victims each year But still, anywhere between 2 & 30,000 deaths a year is still high.


----------



## pawl (6 Apr 2020)

BBC news flash Boris Johnson taken into intensive care.Condition deteriorated


----------



## Buck (6 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> source please?


BBC News.


----------



## fossyant (6 Apr 2020)

Guardian and TV


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> source please?


Just about any news source you can check.


----------



## marshmella (6 Apr 2020)

BBC


----------



## Johnno260 (6 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> source please?


ITV news now


----------



## Mo1959 (6 Apr 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52192604


----------



## MarkF (6 Apr 2020)

Yikes, l hope this has a happy ending


----------



## Beebo (6 Apr 2020)

Hope he’s ok. But we can now expect the BS about him still taking daily briefings to stop. 
He will be out of action for a couple of weeks in remission even if he recovers quickly.


----------



## Racing roadkill (6 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Italy's deaths go back up again today (in reality who knows, just all sorts of errors and variations). 18th straight day of new deaths 500 or more. 17 out of the last 18 days with deaths 600 or more.


Where did you get that nonsense from?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...irus-cases-3-599-day-lowest-rise-3-weeks.html


----------



## marinyork (6 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Where did you get that nonsense from?



The Italian government. Those are the official figures.


----------



## pawl (6 Apr 2020)

Why do people keep asking for the .source My mobile keeps buzzing it was ITV question about COV 19


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Where did you get that nonsense from?
> 
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...irus-cases-3-599-day-lowest-rise-3-weeks.html


The post you dismissed was specifically discussing deaths.


----------



## AndyRM (6 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> The Italian government. Those are the official figures.



A government or the Daily Mail... Hhmmm...


----------



## Rocky (6 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> The Italian government. Those are the official figures.


Also here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

It's a real problem who to believe.....your and my sources or the Daily Mail.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Also here:
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
> 
> It's a real problem who to believe.....your and my sources or the Daily Mail.


From that site going back to March 24

*April 6 (GMT)*

*3599 new cases* and *636 new deaths* in *Italy* [source]
*April 5 (GMT)*

*4316 new cases* and *525 new deaths* in *Italy* [source]
*April 4 (GMT)*

*4805 new cases* and *681 new deaths* in *Italy*. The number of patients *hospitalized in intensive care has declined* for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy

The target of bringing down the *reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached*. Now the *goal is to bring it below 1*. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An *epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear*

An estimated 30,000 lives have been saved as an effect of the lockdown measures, according to _Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS)_ [source] [source]
*April 3 (GMT)*

*Italy*: the *real number *of COVID-19 cases in the country could be *5,000,0000 *(compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to *10,000,000* or even *20,0000,000* after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the _Statale di Milano_ University.

This number would still be *insufficient to reach herd immunity*, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].

The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.

If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.

*4585 new cases* and *766 new deaths* in *Italy* [source]
*April 2 (GMT)*

*4668 new cases* and *760 new deaths* in *Italy* [source]
*April 1 (GMT)*

*4782 new cases* and *727 new deaths* in *Italy* [source]
*March 31 (GMT)*

*4053 new cases* and *837 new deaths* in *Italy* [source]





*March 30 (GMT)*

*4050 new cases* and *812 new deaths* in *Italy*. *Total cases surpass 100,000 *[source]







* Lowest number of new cases in the last 13 days* (since March 17)




Highest number of new recoveries (1,590) since the beginning of the epidemic

*March 29 (GMT)*

*5217 new cases* and *756 new deaths* in *Italy*
*March 28 (GMT)*

*5974 new cases* and *889 new deaths* in *Italy* [source]
*March 27 (GMT)*





*5909 new cases* and *919 new deaths* in *Italy*. Highest number of new deaths since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy [source] [video]. 46 doctors have died to date (with 4 additional deaths today). 6414 health workers have tested positive [source]

_*Worldometer statement regarding the correct number of new deaths in Italy today*_
*March 26 (GMT)*

*6203 new cases* and *712 new deaths* in *Italy*. Worldometer has contacted Piedmont officials directly and received confirmation that the number of deaths in the region is 499, 50 more than what mistakenly reported in the Protezione Civile's bulletin today. This discrepancy was *clearly due to a typing error *by Protezione Civile, not to Piedmont's number of new deaths (16 today) missing in the national report, as incorrectly stated by some media. After solving this discrepancy, we changed the official total number of *deaths in Italy from 8,165 to 8,215 *and, accordingly, the *total number of cases from 80,539 to 80,589* [source]
*March 25 (GMT)*

*5210 new cases* and *683 new deaths* in *Italy*. *4th day in a row with daily new cases below the 6557 peak reached on March 21*. Protezione Civile chief Borrelli, the person usually holding the daily press conference, is at home with a fever, while the former chief Bertolaso is now hospitalized in Milan after having tested positive to the virus

_During the press conference, Protezione Civile officials were asked to clarify what the "change in active cases" ("incremento delle persone attualmente positive") really represents, after our website had raised the issue of Italian media reporting the change in active cases (a lower number) rather than the change in total cases (a higher number), *incorrectly representing it as "newly infected" *when, in fact, it represents the *"change in active cases" 

Newly infected*, meaning the number of people who have tested positive to the virus in the last day, *corresponds to the number Worldometer has always reported*, which is the *change in total cases *in accordance with the international standards set by the WHO and followed by all countries. An important figure which can be compared to newly recovered, as we do in our charts.

The *change in active cases *(what most Italian media incorrectly label as "newly infected") is the result of the *following formula: (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries)*.

Sharing the goal of providing the correct interpretation of data, we are pleased to notice that a few days ago, one of the leading Italian newspapers, Corriere della Sera, began reporting the figures correctly_ [source] [source]
*March 24 (GMT)*





*5249 new cases* and *743 new deaths* in *Italy* [source] [source]


----------



## kingrollo (6 Apr 2020)

Johnson moved to intensive care. 

Even though I am miles away from him polictally - best wishes Boris.


----------



## ozboz (6 Apr 2020)

This virus, I hope BJ and everyone else gets over it ,


----------



## AuroraSaab (6 Apr 2020)

pawl said:


> Why do people keep asking for the .source My mobile keeps buzzing it was ITV question about COV 19



I don't know why either. Something as big news as that takes 30 seconds to Google.


----------



## Archie_tect (6 Apr 2020)




----------



## Tanis8472 (6 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> true and my bulb kit had a main bulb, and a side light bulb, both sides had blown, and I needed to replace a main as well, I didn’t have enough, and the same 501 5W5 is used on my number plate and those had blown as well.
> 
> So I needed bulbs and fuses.
> 
> ...


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronav...8.1657384756.1586196355-1976359321.1584566970


----------



## MrGrumpy (6 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronav...8.1657384756.1586196355-1976359321.1584566970


*Keep your vehicle safe to drive*
You must make sure your vehicle is safe to drive (‘roadworthy’). It can be unsafe even if your MOT expiry date has been extended.
Find out how to check your vehicle is safe and read the rules about vehicle maintenance, safety and security.
You can be fined up to £2,500, be banned from driving and get 3 penalty points for driving a vehicle in a dangerous condition.
You should still take your vehicle to be repaired at the nearest open garage. The government is allowing them to remain open.


----------



## Johnno260 (6 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronav...8.1657384756.1586196355-1976359321.1584566970





MrGrumpy said:


> *Keep your vehicle safe to drive*
> You must make sure your vehicle is safe to drive (‘roadworthy’). It can be unsafe even if your MOT expiry date has been extended.
> Find out how to check your vehicle is safe and read the rules about vehicle maintenance, safety and security.
> You can be fined up to £2,500, be banned from driving and get 3 penalty points for driving a vehicle in a dangerous condition.
> You should still take your vehicle to be repaired at the nearest open garage. The government is allowing them to remain open.



To be honest this is the reason I won’t use it until it’s passed an MOT, it’s a 2011 plate and took a pasting this winter so I would rather not take the risk.

I know all the tyres are good.

I know some garages are open, it’s my choice to run one car at the moment.


----------



## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

Just a thought 
Government guidelines and the current emergency law. 
Don't either advice or make it illegal to put your head up your own arse. 
But it don't stop some going it. Try and take it out and you may see a much bigger picture.


----------



## pubrunner (6 Apr 2020)

ozboz said:


> This virus, I hope BJ and everyone else gets over it ,



I agree wholeheartedly with you !

I've recently read some of the most sickening comments that I've seen on the internet, from someone called Claire Jadis. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=Cla...UIHbeLB78Q9QEwA3oECAoQBQ#imgrc=zH3a64h7c9PsPM:

I'm as sure as I can be, that it will transpire that Claire Jadis is responsible for these comments. It appears, that her Facebook and Twitter accounts have been closed, but not before her comments have been captured.

I don't know who Claire Jadis is, but clearly, a nasty piece of work !


----------



## Rocky (6 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> I agree wholeheartedly with you !
> 
> I've recently read some of the most sickening comments that I've seen on the internet, from someone called Claire Jadis.
> 
> ...


There'll always be nasty people, sadly. I prefer to take my hope from others. Nice tweet from Emmanuel Macron


View: https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1247254477092065280?s=20


----------



## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

@Brompton Bruce Prof may like to know. 
Update from custody around 6pm tonight they upped the PPE use. 
Everyone working in custody now have to wear a mask
All visitors and officers bringing anyone in have to do the same.
All detainees have to wear one outside the cell.
Mrs 73 has to now wear full PPE for every one.


----------



## Rocky (6 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Brompton Bruce Prof may like to know.
> Update from custody around 6pm tonight they upped the PPE use.
> Everyone working in custody now have to wear a mask
> All visitors and officers bringing anyone in have to do the same.
> ...


That sounds like real progress. I'm pleased for Mrs 73 and I'm sure you'll feel a little more comfortable about the situation.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> I agree wholeheartedly with you !
> 
> I've recently read some of the most sickening comments that I've seen on the internet, from someone called Claire Jadis.
> 
> ...



That's vile.

I'm a member of a football board similar to this but heavly loaded with ScotsNats. Their rejoicing at this news is sickening.


----------



## Mr Celine (6 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> View attachment 513081
> )








US deaths from covid 19 in 2020 (10611) have now overtaken US deaths from gun violence in 2020 (10302).


----------



## Blue Hills (6 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> I agree wholeheartedly with you !
> 
> I've recently read some of the most sickening comments that I've seen on the internet, from someone called Claire Jadis.
> 
> ...


As someone who doesn't use twitter, can i ask how you came across that?
If you don't know her she could be anyone? Putin?


----------



## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> That sounds like real progress. I'm pleased for Mrs 73 and I'm sure you'll feel a little more comfortable about the situation.



Just have to get enough to last the shift now


----------



## Ian H (6 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> As someone who doesn't use twitter, can i ask how you came across that?
> If you don't know her she could be anyone? Putin?


Twitter said
"This account doesn’t exist
Try searching for another."


----------



## Slick (6 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> That's vile.
> 
> I'm a member of a football board similar to this but heavly loaded with ScotsNats. Their rejoicing at this news is sickening.


Hopefully says more about football fan mentality than ScotNats.


----------



## pubrunner (6 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> As someone who doesn't use twitter, can i ask how you came across that?
> If you don't know her she could be anyone? Putin?



On another forum . . . similar to this one.


----------



## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

If your in need of expert medical help you may have to wait. It look's like they are waiting in the queue to appear on the news. 
To be asked the same questions as the last one. 
Stop reading into this till you know more. The PM or anyone being moved into ICU can mean two things one they are on the brink or two they need more observation.


----------



## Unkraut (6 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Nice tweet from Emmanuel Macron


If there has been anything good to see during the current crisis it has been how politicians have ditched the party politics and are genuinely working together to get through this.


----------



## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> If there has been anything good to see during the current crisis it has been how politicians have ditched the party politics and are genuinely working together to get through this.



Sadly once this is over I can't see it lasting the greater good will go out the window


----------



## Johnno260 (6 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> I agree wholeheartedly with you !
> 
> I've recently read some of the most sickening comments that I've seen on the internet, from someone called Claire Jadis.
> 
> ...



what a sterling example of a human being.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> I agree wholeheartedly with you !
> 
> I've recently read some of the most sickening comments that I've seen on the internet, from someone called Claire Jadis.
> 
> ...



Reckon thats a fake account mock up TBH - Obviously someone with a grudge against Clare Jadis


----------



## mjr (6 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> So a trip to keep a car on the road and keep a nurse in work vs someone having their windows cleaned is that even a comparison?


Yeah, no, clearly you're golden mate. You just crack on making extra single purpose trips because you'd let basic spares run low while the old and disabled can be happy looking out through filthy glass because what's important is not avoiding spreading the virus, nor what the law says - what matters is not upsetting forum ranters(!)


----------



## MarkF (6 Apr 2020)

Lordy! I have full PPE, full sleeved apron, longer sleeved gloves to make a seal ,a welder style mask visor and 3M FFPE masks for the movement of virus patients. The 3M masks are garbage, I noticed that for very 2 or 3 that are put one, one breaks, the elasticated straps are not "attached" but held in place via tension provided by regular paper staples. I went to look for the boxes thinking we had fakes.




Monday 6th April 
Tested negative - 700
Tested positive - 161
Confirmed case in hospital - 72
Confirmed cases in ICU - 8
Deaths - 21

I believe these figures are for 2 hospitals, BRI & Airedale. I never get told anything but from what I can see ICU capacity has quadrupled, that is another 3 wards have been set up that are currently empty and awaiting arrivals.


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## tom73 (6 Apr 2020)

@Johnno260


----------



## Pale Rider (6 Apr 2020)

The Trump has just sent best wishes to Boris, including ordering two 'genius' Yankee pharma companies with offices in London to offer their assistance.


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## Johnno260 (6 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Yeah, no, clearly you're golden mate. You just crack on making extra single purpose trips because you'd let basic spares run low while the old and disabled can be happy looking out through filthy glass because what's important is not avoiding spreading the virus, nor what the law says - what matters is not upsetting forum ranters(!)



fine I will take both cars off the road and a nurse out of action thanks for the advise.

that’s social distancing for you.

Edit: with regards to spares running low, having a bad fuse and many blown lights at once is not something most kits cater for, that’s why I purchased extras so it wasn’t a single use trip.

Waiting for the next weekly shop wasn’t an option as a shift came before a shop.

I never said having dirty windows was a nice thing or elderly people with overgrown gardens is great either, my point is it’s not essential like sun bathing isn’t essential, my brother is a gardener so this has destroyed his business and his wife’s flourists so it’s not like I don’t see how it affects people. 

We all have elderly relatives friends etc who this situation is hitting hard.

Sorry that trying to keep a nurses transport safe hurt your feelings so much, I can keep her at home, least I know she is safer that way.

We can agree to disagree and ignore each other.


----------



## Wobblers (7 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I'm not in any way attempting to downplay the seriousness of this pandemic, but how would "conventional" flu stack up in your assessment above? It kills, on average, 17,000 UK inhabitants a year. Some people get a sniffle, some people die. Some people get it and never know. Is there a fundamental difference between it and Corona virus?



Firstly, that 17,000 figure for flu is the excess mortality in winter. It's not necessarily due to flu (lower winter temperatures lead to a higher incidence of DVT, for instance) which is why the American CDC's use of it is controversial amongst epidemiologists. A bad flu season will kill over 300 people from viral pneumonia - the equivalent figure for CV-19 is 16 times higher, and we're far from the end of this, sadly. Three is likely to be an excess mortality rate for this too, but it's too early to tell. Though an early analysis of the overall death rates in Itlay indicate that the CV-19 death toll is 4 times higher than the published figures. 

Flu is not "a sniffle". It is a serious disease. (Which may be the motivation for the CDC to include excess mortality - to emphasise that influenza is not a trivial disease). It knocks its victims flat out - even if they're fit and healthy. The classic test is if someone has the energy to go and pick up a tenner from the pavement outside, they just have a bad cold, because someone with flu doesn't even have the energy to do that. Furthermore, flu does not produce a large population of people who are asymptomatic yet infectious. You become infectious with flu a day before symptoms present. CV-19 in producing many asymptomatic carriers along with its very high R0 (twice that of flu) make sit a very difficult virus to stop.


----------



## slowmotion (7 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> Firstly, that 17,000 figure for flu is the excess mortality in winter. It's not necessarily due to flu (lower winter temperatures lead to a higher incidence of DVT, for instance) which is why the American CDC's use of it is controversial amongst epidemiologists. A bad flu season will kill over 300 people from viral pneumonia - the equivalent figure for CV-19 is 16 times higher, and we're far from the end of this, sadly.


I thought that the UK government used the European FluMOMO algorithm to calculate the flu-related death statistics, and that they are ambient temperature compensated.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (7 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Lordy! I have full PPE, full sleeved apron, longer sleeved gloves to make a seal ,a welder style mask visor and 3M FFPE masks for the movement of virus patients. The 3M masks are garbage, I noticed that for very 2 or 3 that are put one, one breaks, the elasticated straps are not "attached" but held in place via tension provided by regular paper staples. I went to look for the boxes thinking we had fakes.
> View attachment 513114
> 
> Monday 6th April
> ...



Stay safe Mark


----------



## Racing roadkill (7 Apr 2020)

You do have to be a bit careful not to ‘over egg the omelette’ when looking at death / infection rate stats, day to day. Trends are useful, daily variations not so much.
It does however, seem that the developing trend in most of the affected territories is downward, which is a ( relatively) good situation to find ourselves in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52167016


----------



## nickyboy (7 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I thought that the UK government used the European FluMOMO algorithm to calculate the flu-related death statistics, and that they are ambient temperature compensated.


Suggest it's of no purpose to compare "typical" flu deaths (whatever they are) with however many CV-19 deaths we are going to suffer. The first is with zero enhanced hygiene, social distancing, testing etc etc

The numbers that should be compared are "typical" flu deaths and whatever the CV-19 deaths would be if the country continued like any normal flu season. Obviously then we are comparing a smallish number with and extraordinarily large number


----------



## mjr (7 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> The numbers that should be compared are "typical" flu deaths and whatever the CV-19 deaths would be if the country continued like any normal flu season. Obviously then we are comparing a smallish number with and extraordinarily large number


Does @roubaixtuesday still have that graph comparing seasonal flu deaths with c19 deaths? That illustrates the challenge for medical capacity quite well.


----------



## mjr (7 Apr 2020)

Swiss (rts) news: no peak yet, troubles for cross-border families, artists unable to sell/perform finally getting subsistence pay, discussion of lockdown relaxation including Austria's moves, Boris in ICU, WWF against live markets


----------



## Dave7 (7 Apr 2020)

Just reading something from an Irish pro golfer who is based in China. He says life is slowly returning to normal. Golf driving ranges have re-opened, allowing one person every other bay. Temperature is taken before they are allowed in. Its very positive and good to know the virus can be beaten. I just hope they are not relaxing things too soon.


----------



## mjr (7 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> fine I will take both cars off the road and a nurse out of action thanks for the advise.


That's not my advice, but play dog in the manger if you like. At least then you'll be following the "stay at home" myth you liked.



> I never said having dirty windows was a nice thing or elderly people with overgrown gardens is great either, my point is it’s not essential like sun bathing isn’t essential, my brother is a gardener so this has destroyed his business and his wife’s flourists so it’s not like I don’t see how it affects people.


I'm sorry your family is suffering because of the laws but that's no reason to push for others to suffer under harsher-than-law restrictions.


----------



## Johnno260 (7 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> That's not my advice, but play dog in the manger if you like. At least then you'll be following the "stay at home" myth you liked.
> 
> 
> I'm sorry your family is suffering because of the laws but that's no reason to push for others to suffer under harsher-than-law restrictions.



I can’t work out if you're a troll or just ignore things people say to push your thoughts.

I’m wrong for repairing a car for a nurse? Then I’m wrong if I don’t get it working? You ignored parts of what I said to push me looking bad ie it was a bad fuse by the looks of things that contributed having more blown lights than my bulb kits had at home, I also wasted a bulb that popped instantly due to a possible issue.

Yes I went to Halfords, I was 4m if not further from the next person, the bench where I collected my parts was virtually outside along with the card reader, I had a mask and gloves so better protected no doubt than the grass cutters that were mentioned, everything got wiped down with an alcohol based cleaner, and then disposed of in a sealable bag.

I also made sure it wasn’t a 1 use trip as I bought bulbs fuses etc to tide me over, these unforeseen things happen, for consumable parts I suppose I should have 4 spare wheels, tyres, the equipment to fit it all, track rod ends and wishbones as these could be seen as consumables on these current roads.

But by all means tar me with the same brush as sun bathers, street racers and parents letting teens wander the streets in groups causing issues.

If harsher measures are imposed I was saying it's the people doing the above that will cause it, the samartians trying to make the elderly and disabled have a more normal time during this unprecedented times will get caught up in it for doing good I never denied that.

Like I said sorry that trying to keep a nurse in work irked you so badly, I think it’s best we ignore each other from now on as obvious we annoy each other.


----------



## Electric_Andy (7 Apr 2020)

The lines are understandable blurred, becasue everyone has different priorities and reasons for going outside. What's essential for one is not essential for another. Bickering about it doesn't really get anywhere. The main thing is that @Johnno260 needs to maintain transport for his wife, a key worker, so buying bulbs to ensure a vehicle is roadworthy is a legitimate excuse for buying them at a shop. Remember that countless people are shopping for alcohol and luxury foods in supermarkets, which I'd say is many times more risky in terms of potential transmission.

With the window cleaning, it's really up to the window cleaner whether they feel justified and safe doing their job. As long as they wear gloves when handling the customers' money and using hand gel etc then that's their lookout. The window cleaner could just as easily go to a shop and pick up/transmit the virus there. If a customer does not come into contact then I'd say there is almost no risk, providing outside taps or electric outlets are sanitised or not touched by the customer.


----------



## Eziemnaik (7 Apr 2020)

Interesting view regarding economic implications of lockdowns
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...oversial-tweetstorm?__twitter_impression=true


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (7 Apr 2020)

I'm betting social media in 1940 would have been ... interesting.


----------



## Unkraut (7 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm betting social media in 1940 would have been ... interesting.


Likely to have been _the lights of perverted science_! It would almost certainly have spread defeatism that even Churchill's rhetoric would have had difficulty overcoming.


----------



## ozboz (7 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> That's vile.
> 
> I'm a member of a football board similar to this but heavly loaded with ScotsNats. Their rejoicing at this news is sickening.



They should be a little more compassionate and remember what can go round can come round ,,


----------



## marinyork (7 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm betting social media in 1940 would have been ... interesting.



The same as now. Real life not very different from social media anyway.


----------



## Eziemnaik (7 Apr 2020)

ONS released new stats regarding deaths in ENG and Wales
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


----------



## DCLane (7 Apr 2020)

@Johnno260 - having read their inflammatory comments I'd call "troll". They're now on my 'ignore' list - click the name, choose "Ignore" and they (or I) disappear.

We've enough stress, risk and challenges without the trolls making life worse. Like you my wife's in the NHS and at risk. That's challenging enough.


----------



## mjr (7 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I can’t work out if you're a troll or just ignore things people say to push your thoughts.


I've ignored nothing you've said. I don't think a line-by-line rebuttal of your posts will help anything, so I trim what I quote.

Likewise, I can't work out if you're a troll or you really can't see the double-standards you seem to be pushing.

The shifting definition of "essential" and arguments for applying half the law by self-appointed street monitors seems similar to the people who pop up on here from time to time to post basically arguing that any bike cheaper than theirs is a BSO and any bike more expensive is a waste of money. In short, essential becomes what you do while what others do is non-essential.



Johnno260 said:


> But by all means tar me with the same brush as sun bathers, street racers and parents letting teens wander the streets in groups causing issues.


Now you're ignoring what I've said, including that it's not up to me and that wasn't the comparison. You making trips to maintain other people's transport is in a similar legal category to people making trips to maintain other people's homes.



Johnno260 said:


> Like I said sorry that trying to keep a nurse in work irked you so badly, I think it’s best we ignore each other from now on as obvious we annoy each other.


That's not what irks me, as I've posted several times but you continue to ignore. Please do what you like but I'm not going to ignore disinformation about what's classed as essential because I believe challenging its spread will help to keep my loved relatives working on health services and kit safe from the sort of abuse I described earlier.


----------



## Rezillo (7 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm betting social media in 1940 would have been ... interesting.



I have been thinking much the same.

"This report from the Spectator proves that vehicle and living room lights can't be seen from German bombing heights".

#proudtobelituplikeaxmastree


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## steve292 (7 Apr 2020)

This. Shows why IMHO why we should embrace the spirit of the law and not try to work around it if possible . There is a saying "Grace under pressure and this fella has it in spades. Just don't read some of the comments

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejlbCmRJMW4


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## DCLane (7 Apr 2020)

My letter from the government about restrictions arrived this morning. I'm presuming it's because they can't confirm everyone is aware as not every household has a TV/internet.


----------



## Johnno260 (7 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> I've ignored nothing you've said. I don't think a line-by-line rebuttal of your posts will help anything, so I trim what I quote.
> 
> Likewise, I can't work out if you're a troll or you really can't see the double-standards you seem to be pushing.



Like I said better we ignore each other, comparing clean windows to a working nurse? I can’t see the comparison.



mjr said:


> The shifting definition of "essential" and arguments for applying half the law by self-appointed street monitors seems similar to the people who pop up on here from time to time to post basically arguing that any bike cheaper than theirs is a BSO and any bike more expensive is a waste of money. In short, essential becomes what you do while what others do is non-essential.



A bike is whatever the user can afford, I love my bargin bucket Muddyfox it’s virtually indestructible I never have or will ever judge a person on what they cycle, it’s just good they’re out enjoying the activity.



mjr said:


> Now you're ignoring what I've said, including that it's not up to me and that wasn't the comparison. You making trips to maintain other people's transport is in a similar legal category to people making trips to maintain other people's homes



The difference being it’s a joint owned vehicle that my wife uses for work, I’m not working on someone else’s property, it’s to maintain a car to keep a keyworker at work.

Working on a house to maintain as I see it electrical, water those kind of things, even my brother said his business is not essential he is a gardener and closed shop, he choose the socially responsible thing to do in my opinion, and will support him anyway I can, either financially or organising a supermarket food delivery.



mjr said:


> That's not what irks me, as I've posted several times but you continue to ignore. Please do what you like but I'm not going to ignore disinformation about what's classed as essential because I believe challenging its spread will help to keep my loved relatives working on health services and kit safe from the sort of abuse I described earlier.



I fail to see how I’m spreading dis-information, I’m trying to keep a nurse working but I get nothing but grief from you about it, but like I said lets agree to disagree and part ways.


----------



## mjr (7 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Like I said better we ignore each other, comparing clean windows to a working nurse? I can’t see the comparison.


Because that wasn't the comparison, it was comparing house maintenance to car maintenance.



Johnno260 said:


> Working on a house to maintain as I see it electrical, water those kind of things, even my brother said his business is not essential he is a gardener and closed shop, he choose the socially responsible thing to do in my opinion, and will support him anyway I can, either financially or organising a supermarket food delivery.


That is his choice. That is your opinion. That's fine and up to you two. Neither are the law, nor should they be presented as law.



Johnno260 said:


> I fail to see how I’m spreading dis-information, I’m trying to keep a nurse working but I get nothing but grief from you about it, but like I said lets agree to disagree and part ways.


I'm happy to do so, but you need to stop ignoring what I say and posting essentially fibs about me. I gave you grief not for trying to keep a nurse working, but for spreading a dodgy interpretation of "essential". What you did was legal so I accept it - what many others are doing cleaning windows or gardening is also legal, so please accept that. Live and let live, alright? Well, except the daffodils like space-invaders and park sunbathers. It's time to start issuing fines to those and most of us can agree on that, yes?  ?


----------



## Johnno260 (7 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Well, except the daffodils like space-invaders and park sunbathers. It's time to start issuing fines to those and most of us can agree on that, yes?  ?



if you include street racing plums in that sentence we can agree on something yes.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (7 Apr 2020)

Now Gove is self-isolating because a family member is showing Covid-19 symptoms.

By the way, has anyone seen the Home Secretary in the last few weeks? She seems to have vanished, which is quite odd considering the restrictions on movement of the population is right up her street. Why haven't we seen her at press conferences answering questions?


----------



## vickster (7 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Now Gove is self-isolating because a family member is showing Covid-19 symptoms.
> 
> By the way, has anyone seen the Home Secretary in the last few weeks? She seems to have vanished, which is quite odd considering the restrictions on movement of the population is right up her street. Why haven't we seen her at press conferences answering questions?


Maybe she is shielding for personal health reasons?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (7 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Maybe she is shielding for personal health reasons?




I guess that's possible. I would still expect that to have been mentioned in the press though.


----------



## vickster (7 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I guess that's possible. I would still expect that to have been mentioned in the press though.


It’s none of anyone’s business though (not that such ever stopped the U.K. press)


----------



## Edwardoka (7 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> It’s none of anyone’s business though (not that such ever stopped the U.K. press)


What?! It is absolutely in the public interest - she is a high-ranking member of the cabinet, as well as an MP. Do her constituents not have a right to know where she is?


----------



## Rocky (7 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> What?! It is absolutely in the public interest - she is a high-ranking member of the cabinet, as well as an MP. Do her constituents not have a right to know where she is?


Particularly given the current lockdown situation and the role of the police in maintaining it. That is the responsibility of the Home Office.


----------



## mjr (7 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> What?! It is absolutely in the public interest - she is a high-ranking member of the cabinet, as well as an MP. Do her constituents not have a right to know where she is?


Priti Patel has appeared on BBC Look East by video call a few times since the lockdown. She appeared to be working from home, in line with government advice, which seems fine to me: the number of different faces and mixed messages from the Downing Street daily sermons is enough of a problem already without adding a rather divisive politician with a tendency to sneer.


----------



## vickster (7 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> What?! It is absolutely in the public interest - she is a high-ranking member of the cabinet, as well as an MP. Do her constituents not have a right to know where she is?


There’s nothing to stop them contacting her directly 👍


----------



## Rocky (7 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Priti Patel has appeared on BBC Look East by video call a few times since the lockdown. She appeared to be working from home, in line with government advice, which seems fine to me: the number of different faces and mixed messages from the Downing Street daily sermons is enough of a problem already without adding another unpopular politician with a tendency to sneer.


Although there are specific Home Office aspects to this - for example one of my relations returned to Heathrow from northern Italy a week or so ago. No screening, no advice, no thermal imagining cameras - she got straight on a train to London and then another to Yorkshire. Shouldn't Pritti Patel, as the secretary of state responsible for our borders have been ramping up screening/education/information provision?


----------



## tom73 (7 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Particularly given the current lockdown situation and the role of the police in maintaining it. That is the responsibility of the Home Office.



She probably too occupied writing and producing the new government public information advert. 
Stay home but you can still do........ as some believe it covers many volumes. She will then be declaring all cinemas to reopen as it will have turned into a film. 
I have it on good authority a sequel will follow called Do you really need to told what's the right thing to do? 
Subtitled use your common sense.


----------



## Rocky (7 Apr 2020)

Boris is in intensive care. I wish him all the best and hope he fully recovers soon.

The BBC is reporting this:
_Our reporters have just been briefed on the latest news regarding the condition of UK prime minister Boris Johnson - who spent the night in intensive care after his coronavirus symptoms worsened.

Downing Street says the prime minister was stable overnight and remains in good spirits.

He is receiving "standard" oxygen treatment and is breathing without any other assistance, a spokesperson says.

He has not required mechanical ventilation or non-invasive respiratory support.

The prime minister has not had a pneumonia diagnosis, the spokesperson adds._

If this is the case, why is he taking up a valuable bed in ICU that could be used to save someone's life? My son is working at a London teaching hospital and its ICU is full. Actually, I believe Boris does need the ICU bed and is in a worse condition than No 10 is saying. Please stop taking us for fools - either tell the truth or don't comment.


----------



## Julia9054 (7 Apr 2020)

Cycled into Harrogate this morning (to show him all the short cuts and ways of avoiding big roundabouts) with my son who has just started work at the new Nightingale hospital created in Harrogate conference centre. The place looks alarming. Giant blue fence surrounds it, security including the army and huge oxygen tanks outside the Royal Hall. Made me shudder.


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (7 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Boris is in intensive care. I wish him all the best and hope he fully recovers soon.
> 
> The BBC is reporting this:
> ....
> ...



That's a good question.

Also he is in St. Thomas. It is one of only three hospitals in London that have ECMO machines, and afaict there are only 30 ECMO beds in the country. Unlike ventilators, such machines can keep you alive and win time for recovery even if your lungs are completely stuffed.


----------



## Edwardoka (7 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Actually, I believe Boris does need the ICU bed and is in a worse condition than No 10 is saying. Please stop taking us for fools - either tell the truth or don't comment.


Yes, it brings me no joy to say that I called it - they don't bring people into hospital for precautionary tests, it's pure spin, and this was proven to be the case as his condition deteriorated.

I wholeheartedly agree with your last sentence. Speculating is deeply unhelpful, but so is "dear leader"-esque spin.


----------



## mjr (7 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Shouldn't Pritti Patel, as the secretary of state responsible for our borders have been ramping up screening/education/information provision?


Probably - but couldn't any of the reporters on the TV screen could ask the sermon-deliverers that, or video call Priti Patel directly?

I don't think the Home Minister needs to be in London while Parliament is not sitting and I doubt you were suggesting her personally go to Heathrow and ramp up provision.


----------



## tom73 (7 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Boris is in intensive care. I wish him all the best and hope he fully recovers soon.
> 
> The BBC is reporting this:
> _Our reporters have just been briefed on the latest news regarding the condition of UK prime minister Boris Johnson - who spent the night in intensive care after his coronavirus symptoms worsened.
> ...



"Standard" oxygen if they class that as any thing other than mechanical help. Then he may well be on high flow oxygen which would explain the need for an ICU bed. NIV is looking the likely route at some point if he stays in ICU longer though that can be carried out on a Nurse lead respiratory care unit they would also be able to do high flow. So it's either they have no room, enough staff or machines to go round. 
Or as Mrs 73 put it when I told her when he 1st went in "so Boris isn't well"


----------



## mjr (7 Apr 2020)

RecordAceFromNew said:


> Also he is in St. Thomas. It is one of only three hospitals in London that have ECMO machines, and afaict there are only 30 ECMO beds in the country. Unlike ventilators, such machines can keep you alive and win time for recovery even if your lungs are completely stuffed.


Ah but does St Thomas have them because it's a big hospital in central London in sight of the country's busiest rail station, or because it's near to Downing Street and Parliament?

Would a PM "at home" ever go anywhere else in an emergency?


----------



## Rocky (7 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Probably - but couldn't any of the reporters on the TV screen could ask the sermon-deliverers that, or video call Priti Patel directly?
> 
> I don't think the Home Minister needs to be in London while Parliament is not sitting and I doubt you were suggesting her personally go to Heathrow and ramp up provision.


I think leadership is important during these challenging times. Sunak, Vallance, Whitty and Boris have shown it. Other ministers, such as Gove, Hancock, Sharma and Jenrick have been found wanting. People expect their top politicians to step up to the plate. I’m disappointed - people are making huge sacrifices and deserve support.


----------



## tom73 (7 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Cycled into Harrogate this morning (to show him all the short cuts and ways of avoiding big roundabouts) with my son who has just started work at the new Nightingale hospital created in Harrogate conference centre. The place looks alarming. Giant blue fence surrounds it, security including the army and huge oxygen tanks outside the Royal Hall. Made me shudder.



Better not take a trip round the back of our hospital then huge oxygen tanks sit next to rose cottage or it's official name the morgue.


----------



## pubrunner (7 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Shouldn't Pritti Patel, as the secretary of state responsible for our borders have been ramping up screening/education/information provision?



Yes . . . . . . . the problem is though, we are bombarded with conflicting information on a daily (hourly) basis.

We are told by our government, that we should stay indoors, social distancing etc., etc.

I've been reading today, comments from an expert {Professor Russell Viner} who is questioning the 'value' of keeping schools closed; he's not the only expert to have made such comments.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52180783 

How can we have schools open and maintain social distancing ? If schools were to re-open soon, how many of us would be happy to send our children back in such circumstances ?

On the other side of the coin, there are those experts who don't share the opinion of Professor Viner and indeed, state that we should have this 'lockdown' for 'many weeks', and potentially, much longer.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-last-weeks-more-across-europe-officials-warn

If we look abroad, the evidence to be seen, is contradictory; I've read reports that Sweden is 'getting it right', but then I've read the same for Germany & Hong Kong. Each is dealing with the situation in an entirely different way, but each is (if you believe the reports) reacting in the 'best' way.

All this ^^^ information is coming out frequently - that we 'should' be following the model of Hong Kong/Germany/Sweden or we 'should' have a long lock-down (or not).

It is difficult to know with any certainty, which is the best approach to follow, given that every country is at a different stage of the disease. That said, I think that when the matter is settled, we need to ensure that the superb NHS has adequate facilities to deal with such incidents.


----------



## Mo1959 (7 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think leadership is important during these challenging times. Sunak, Vallance, Whitty and Boris have shown it. Other ministers, such as Gove, Hancock, Sharma and Jenrick have been found wanting. People expect their top politicians to step up to the plate. I’m disappointed - people are making huge sacrifices and deserve support.


I found Raab’s daily brief yesterday pretty uninspiring too.


----------



## Rocky (7 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I found Raab’s daily brief yesterday pretty uninspiring too.


Yes, silly me, how could I have forgotten him


----------



## tom73 (7 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Yes, silly me, how could I have forgotten him


Easily sadly


----------



## Rocky (7 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Cycled into Harrogate this morning (to show him all the short cuts and ways of avoiding big roundabouts) with my son who has just started work at the new Nightingale hospital created in Harrogate conference centre. The place looks alarming. Giant blue fence surrounds it, security including the army and huge oxygen tanks outside the Royal Hall. Made me shudder.


I hope all goes well for your son and he stays fit and healthy. We owe him a massive vote of thanks


----------



## Ming the Merciless (7 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Boris is in intensive care. I wish him all the best and hope he fully recovers soon.
> 
> The BBC is reporting this:
> _Our reporters have just been briefed on the latest news regarding the condition of UK prime minister Boris Johnson - who spent the night in intensive care after his coronavirus symptoms worsened.
> ...



The messages on how he’s been doing have always been contradictory out of the no. 10 office. It’s almost as though they are geared to never give bad news. Keep it upbeat. Really there should not be any comment from them now and patient confidentiality should apply.

Like anyone in ICU you wish them the best outcome possible.


----------



## tom73 (7 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The messages on how he’s been doing have always been contradictory out of the no. 10 office. It’s almost as though they are geared to never give bad news. Keep it upbeat. Really there should not be any comment from them now and patient confidentiality should apply.
> 
> Like anyone in ICU you wish them the best outcome possible.



The modern quest for minute by minute blow news and the need for everything to be instant. 
Sadly won't allow it happen. like anyone who's ill enough he's in the right place and it's a waiting game. 
One things for sure all the staff will see is sick guy called Boris and will just do what they always do. 
As for Boris he's probably pretty much terrified right now.


----------



## Skibird (7 Apr 2020)

758 in just England today!!


----------



## mjr (7 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think leadership is important during these challenging times. Sunak, Vallance, Whitty and Boris have shown it. Other ministers, such as Gove, Hancock, Sharma and Jenrick have been found wanting. [...]


Sunak OK. Boris borderline but he has a big justification for doing it. I find Whitty's unblinking stares terrifying and I don't even remember which one is Vallance so that's hardly a ringing endorsement of their leadership. I agree about Gove, Hancock and Sharmer, while Jenrick is another I can't picture.

Does anyone really think Patel on TV from Downing Street would end well just now? Let's leave it to Sunak, Raab and Hancock (despite what we think, the deputy PM and the health minister have pretty big claims to be there) and - when he's recovered - Boris and not keeping adding cooks.


----------



## mjr (7 Apr 2020)

Two of our street have had their septic tanks emptied this week and another tanker's just gone past. Consequences of plentiful toilet roll purchasing? 

More likely just due to many more people being at home...


----------



## newfhouse (7 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> By the way, has anyone seen the Home Secretary in the last few weeks? She seems to have vanished, which is quite odd considering the restrictions on movement of the population is right up her street. Why haven't we seen her at press conferences answering questions?


Working from her holiday home in the occupied territories?


----------



## Buck (7 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Yes, silly me, how could I have forgotten him



I thought he was dancing with his answers and being very very carefulto stay on message as he tried to shield the new about Boris.


----------



## Eziemnaik (7 Apr 2020)

Some more reading and Italian stats for anyone bored...
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/


----------



## Rocky (7 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> An inappropriate and churlish statement; do you suppose that if Corbyn or Starmer were in the same situation as Johnson, their treatment would be any different ?
> 
> Incredible, that there are some on this forum, who can’t resist making political comments about a situation such as this.


I'm not saying this to make political points....but the reality is that either Boris needs to be in ICU and is being intubated and on a ventilator or if he is just having oxygen and is doing well, as Gove/Raab have suggested, then he is getting special treatment and using an ICU bed that a really sick person needs.

My view is that he is being intubated and that he is getting the same care that you or I would be getting with the same symptoms. I just don't think the No 10 spin machine is helping the situation. I sincerely hope he recovers quickly and is up and about soon - the same goes for Ms Simmons and everyone else with the virus.


----------



## kingrollo (7 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Some more reading and Italian stats for anyone bored...
> https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/



Quick skim read - figures are a lot different to what is reported here IMO.


----------



## wafter (7 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> PS - any asthmatics had a shielding letter yet ?


Nope -- although thankfully mine's not too severe. While both respiratory issues and clearly asthma isn't going to help if you do get infected, I think the jury's out on how much additional danger it poses.. if this makes you feel any better!


----------



## Eziemnaik (7 Apr 2020)

Go to Italian Gvn website
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-decessi-italia
There is an english ver
Important to keep in mind Italian dead stats include all patients with the CV19


----------



## dodgy (7 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Some more reading and Italian stats for anyone bored...
> https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/



Majority of stuff on that page seems overwhelmingly critical of the pandemic's severity.


----------



## tom73 (7 Apr 2020)

Yep guess you're right he's really on the set of Holby city with an army of extras posing as staff. 
Observing correct social distancing of course.
Only extra he will be getting is the extra sercuaty about the place. Which not only are protecting him but everyone else
Who now finds themselves a much bigger target of the loons than they did a few days ago.


----------



## Eziemnaik (7 Apr 2020)

dodgy said:


> Majority of stuff on that page seems overwhelmingly critical of the pandemic's severity.


Look at the link to italian gvn website, pure stats no comments


----------



## Mo1959 (7 Apr 2020)

Is it just me or is anyone else getting fed up of some of the inane and intrusive questions from the newsreaders and journalists?


----------



## Racing roadkill (7 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Is it just me or is anyone else getting fed up of some of the inane and intrusive questions from the newsreaders and journalists?


I watch, just for the giggle factor now. They’ve run out of sensible questions, so they are sounding like they’re just asking questions they’ve lifted off soshul meeja.


----------



## flake99please (7 Apr 2020)

Im sure Boris will be fine. He does have all those Americans praying for him after all.


----------



## Mo1959 (7 Apr 2020)

Same old questions from Laura Kuenssberg et al.


----------



## DCLane (7 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Same old questions from Laura Kuenssberg et al.


That was my thought: it's getting repetitive and intrusive.

There just aren't the answers yet.


----------



## IaninSheffield (7 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Same old questions from Laura Kuenssberg et al.


And same old answers from politicians at the podium?
Decided to stop watching the daily briefings because, well, I don't tend to get briefed. The journos are somewhat shackled by the format and the time limitation. If they weren't in competition with one another, elected to cooperate with one another and maybe selected a spokesperson, perhaps they might make a little more progress in holding ministers to account?
But hey, it rarely works in one to one political interviews even in 'normal' times, such is the apparent need to stay on message these days.


----------



## ozboz (7 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Is it just me or is anyone else getting fed up of some of the inane and intrusive questions from the newsreaders and journalists?



That Beth Rigby , and that gawd awful way she talks .reminds me of a school teacher we had ,


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (7 Apr 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> And same old answers from politicians at the podium?
> Decided to stop watching the daily briefings because, well, I don't tend to get briefed. The journos are somewhat shackled by the format and the time limitation. If they weren't in competition with one another, elected to cooperate with one another and maybe selected a spokesperson, perhaps they might make a little more progress in holding ministers to account?
> But hey, it rarely works in one to one political interviews even in 'normal' times, such is the apparent need to stay on message these days.


I thought there was more flat batting than before, like they were all wired up to the same flat battery.


----------



## ozboz (7 Apr 2020)

Well a good news story ! , a co-worker of Ms ozboz was released from hospital today after being diagnosed with covid 19 , early 60’s in age , good for him !!


----------



## tom73 (7 Apr 2020)

Just seen a guy with a homemade mask. Thought it looked a bit odd then spotted why it was a catering type hair net. 
Either the virus has wildly mutated or he's not read the memo..... bless


----------



## Buck (7 Apr 2020)

Well it looks like the testing of health care workers is starting In our region. 

We’ve been told it’s from this weekend and will initially focus on the ICU/ED teams and Paramedics before going out to General Practice. 

Tests going to Milton Keynes for analysis.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (7 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just seen a guy with a homemade mask. Thought it looked a bit odd then spotted why it was a catering type hair net.
> Either the virus has wildly mutated or he's not read the memo..... bless



Are you sure it's not just to keep his beard neat whilst he sleeps


----------



## tom73 (7 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Are you sure it's not just to keep his beard neat whilst he sleeps


 
well if it is his beard has walked off in the night.


----------



## kingrollo (7 Apr 2020)

54 year old that I know via friends of friends - is out of intensive care for the first time in around 10 days. He is still needs oxygen to help him breathe - but hopefully he is over the worst.


----------



## pubrunner (7 Apr 2020)

It’ll be interesting to see where we go from here, once this virus situation has been resolved. A big question, must surely be how the NHS is set-up so that it can deal with future pandemics. What should be our realistic expectations ?

For example, if a similar virus pandemic occurs again, we would we expect the NHS to cope with it; but would we expect for ‘routine’ operations to be carried out at the same time, or should they always ‘put on hold’ when such outbreaks occur ?

I think that the impact of the coronavirus has gone way beyond what most of us expected. In the first 70 or 80 posts on this thread, there are only a few that stand out, as voicing any concerns. That’s not a criticism of the rest, btw, but it illustrates our unpreparedness for what has subsequently occurred.



Racing roadkill said:


> Given the level of PPE being deployed ( class 4 pathogen level) and the fact that the Chinese have already mapped the genome of the virus, and know exactly what they are up against,* I’d say we should be concerned*.





greenmark said:


> Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.
> 
> First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.
> 
> ...



Hard to believe, but hardly anyone on this forum took this ^^^ comment seriously - at the time. It just goes to show, we've all been on a massive learning curve.

Hopefully, there will be a few good things that come from this; first, that the NHS will receive the funding and equipment it requires. Secondly, we'll be better prepared for a similar pandemic and finally, I hope that there'll be no talk in any quarter, of privatising the NHS.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (7 Apr 2020)

Frightening predictions for the UK as heading for the worst figures in Europe, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Herd immunity held responsible for dither and delay over social distancing. Figures highly disputed by the Imperial College guys who eventually got the government to listen over social distancing. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ropes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts


----------



## Archie_tect (7 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Frightening predictions for the UK as heading for the worst figures in Europe, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Herd immunity held responsible for dither and delay over social distancing. Figures highly disputed by the Imperial College guys who eventually got the government to listen over social distancing. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ropes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts


French, Spanish and Italian deaths on the Covid-19 Dashboard site are now up to approx. 10% of the confirmed cases.


----------



## pubrunner (7 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Frightening predictions for the UK as heading for the worst figures in Europe, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Herd immunity held responsible for dither and delay over social distancing. Figures highly disputed by the Imperial College guys who eventually got the government to listen over social distancing. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ropes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts



In Sweden, they don't seem to be bothered about social distancing at the moment.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

So why aren't they going to have the worst figures in Europe ?


----------



## lane (7 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> In Sweden, they don't seem to be bothered about social distancing at the moment.
> 
> https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/
> 
> So why aren't they going to have the worst figures in Europe ?



Expect they will change their mind as we did when reality bites.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (7 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> In Sweden, they don't seem to be bothered about social distancing at the moment.
> 
> https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/
> 
> So why aren't they going to have the worst figures in Europe ?


Keep up! Sweden have panicked and toughened up on social distancing. About 5 days ago.


----------



## pubrunner (7 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Keep up! Sweden have panicked and toughened up on social distancing. About 5 days ago.



Keep up!

The article I linked, is from yesterday :
.
"Lots of people are rushing to discredit Sweden’s approach, which relies more on calibrated precautions and isolating *only the most vulnerable *than on imposing a full lockdown. "

The fact is, they haven't 'panicked' and their guidance on social distancing isn't nearly as 'tough' as in the UK.

Here's an article from today :

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/...urope-s-coronavirus-outlier-and-what-it-means


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (7 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> Keep up!
> 
> The article I linked, is from yesterday :
> .
> ...


Sweden committed itself to the herd immunity approach, despite epidemiologists dismay. They've started the journey back from the Swedish exception. As there are only about 10 million Swedes, that delay won't kill as many as it will in the UK.


----------



## pubrunner (7 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> As there are only about 10 million Swedes, that delay won't kill as many as it will in the UK.



I'm sure that'll be the case, but it'll be interesting to see how it works out per capita.

That said, we don't know if other countries are recording deaths in the same way. I see that 'Nipper' Read has died - due to the coronavirus; he was 95 and had underlying health issues. I wonder, if the Germans are only reporting 'pure' Covid-19 deaths, rather than a very old guy who died with C19, but had health issues and was very old ?


----------



## Unkraut (8 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> I wonder, if the Germans are only reporting 'pure' Covid-19 deaths, rather than a very old guy who died with C19, but had health issues and was very old ?


The death toll combines those who died _of_ covid-19 and those who died _with_ it. Only after this is over will it be possible to try to differentiate between the two.


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> In Sweden, they don't seem to be bothered about social distancing at the moment.
> 
> https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/
> 
> So why aren't they going to have the worst figures in Europe ?


Because they haven’t got the amount of ‘fuel’ of certain European territories ( nor has the U.K.) The U.K. is looking like it’s flattened the curve, so where that lot got the idea that the U.K. will be the worst hit Euro territory is beyond me. An American organisation was trying to float a figure of 66000 total U.K. deaths, which is even more laughable. 20000 deaths in total would be considered a touch, and at the current trajectory, the U.K. will be no where near that figure ( it should be considerably lower). Sweden decided to tell the politicians to sit back and shut up, and let the scientific experts deal with the nitty gritty. So far, it’s paid off.


----------



## Eziemnaik (8 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> The death toll combines those who died _of_ covid-19 and those who died _with_ it. Only after this is over will it be possible to try to differentiate between the two.



Just like Italy, everyone with virus is included in the stat. Also, Italian mortality well within the range of the past few years. Same as UK
Thats where cases of young people come into light - media love reporting them as CV19 victims even if they had 4th stage cancer, advanced AIDS etc
So far in the stats by Italian gov 1% of victims did not have a serious underlying condition.


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> So far in the stats by Italian gov 1% of victims did not have a serious underlying condition.


Link, please?

And what's your implication there? That people with underlying health conditions are not worth worrying about?


----------



## flake99please (8 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> And what's your implication there? That people with underlying health conditions are not worth worrying about?



I’m making an assumption for the poster here.... perhaps they’re implying that if you have no underlying health issues, that you should worry less about the severity of symptoms for yourself.

I look at the bigger picture myself. I don’t want it, nor do I wish to pass it on to anyone more vulnerable should I get it.


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Link, please?
> 
> And what's your implication there? That people with underlying health conditions are not worth worrying about?


I’d imagine It’s probably more a case of that a lot of people with the underlying health conditions are far more likely to end up dying _with _CV-19, rather than of ‘complications arising directly as a result of CV-19’, but still end up as a CV-19 stat.


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> I’d imagine It’s probably more a case of that a lot of people with the underlying health conditions are far more likely to end up dying _with _CV-19, rather than of ‘complications arising directly as a result of CV-19’, but still end up as a CV-19 stat.


Still probably wouldn't be dead now without CV 19 so that seems accurate, doesn't it?


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

BBC TV says they've put Boris in a stable.

I may have misheard that


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

Swiss RTS news: disputes over self-employed support, pleas to stay at home over Easter, new Chinese lockdown, Trump threatening to withhold WHO funding because they're being too nice to China


----------



## nickyboy (8 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Swiss RTS news: disputes over self-employed support, pleas to stay at home over Easter, new Chinese lockdown, Trump threatening to withhold WHO funding because they're being too nice to China


He's withholding funding as they "did a bad job" in controlling the pandemic

It's just politicking. His administration did a bad job so he's deflecting blame. It's completely unsurprising in the run up to the November elections but it remains somewhat unedifying


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

Belgian RTBF news: new high in reported deaths due to delayed care home death reports, discharges still higher than admissions, debate around mask use with appeals for the public not to "hamsteriser" surgical masks, Wavre council contemplating mask compulsion, 20000 tests for care homes, formation of unlockdown strategy commission (pics), cancellation of exams or lengthen the academic year into July, report about a doctor in Pisa and the challenge of trying not to take cv19 home each day, EU corona bonds opposed by group led by NL, update on Boris, Cardinal Pell released in Australia, Mont-St-Michel isolated ghost town, "View from my window" facebook group, a VR smart treadmill thing


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

Odd thing from yesterday's sermon: Raab led them out then stood at his lectern, forcing the others to pass within 2m to get through the door. WTF?


----------



## tom73 (8 Apr 2020)

For any staff in need of help it's so easy to forget yourself in all this. 

The NHS is launching a hotline to support and advise healthcare staff during the coronavirus pandemic. 
Volunteers from charities including Hospice UK, the Samaritans and Shout, will listen to concerns and offer psychological support. 
The phone line will be open between 07:00 and 23:00 every day, while the text service will be available around the clock.
The phone number is 0300 131 7000 or staff can text FRONTLINE to 85258.


----------



## winjim (8 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> BBC TV says they've put Boris in a stable.
> 
> I may have misheard that


They should have shut the stable door before Cheltenham.


----------



## MarkF (8 Apr 2020)

This was a sad article, given the choice I'd take working alongside the virus in a hospital over a care home! These carers are underpaid and often ill treated, no wonder so many NHS health care assistants are ex-carers, the working conditions, salary, pension, holidays and security, must make the NHS seem like Shangri-La in comparison. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-52189562

I thought about her as I sauntered straight into Sainsbury's this morning, it's not right, she deserves the NHS shopping privilege far more than I do.


----------



## Eziemnaik (8 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Link, please?
> 
> And what's your implication there? That people with underlying health conditions are not worth worrying about?


I have posted it a page or two before

Im not gonna comment as any opinion different to official is not allowed


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> I have posted it a page or two before
> 
> Im not gonna comment as any opinion different to official is not allowed


The swprs (or something like that) link that differs from the reported standard figures?

And the worry is not that your view is different from "official" (deity knows, there's plenty of us criticising official views here), but that it reads like it's different from human, that 99% of deaths don't matter because they had other health problems!


----------



## Eziemnaik (8 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> The swprs (or something like that) link that differs from the reported standard figures?
> 
> And the worry is not that your view is different from "official" (deity knows, there's plenty of us criticising official views here), but that it reads like it's different from human, that 99% of deaths don't matter because they had other health problems!


No, the Italian centre for diseases.

See, you are making me a monster


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Still probably wouldn't be dead now without CV 19 so that seems accurate, doesn't it?


That’s the point, it’s like saying count someone who died because they got hit by a bus, but had CV-19 in their system, as a CV-19 death.


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> No, the Italian centre for diseases.
> 
> See, you are making me a monster


I didn't find that link. Twice now.

I'm not making you a monster. You posted something that looks monstrous and refuse to clarify any other meaning.


----------



## Eziemnaik (8 Apr 2020)

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-decessi-italia

I am not commenting as when I did that before I was told I dont have a clue
So again, pure stats


----------



## tom73 (8 Apr 2020)

The irony that it's taken a deadly respiratory disease to being down deadly air pollution levels. 
Just as many can benefit from latter they are prevented by the former. 
Hopefully more will start to question how we keep them down once this is over.


----------



## Eziemnaik (8 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> The irony that it's taken a deadly respiratory disease to being down deadly air pollution levels.
> Just as many can benefit from latter they are prevented by the former.
> Hopefully more will start to question how we keep them down once this is over.


I think as much as we all would like that to happen it will not be happening. When asking friends what are they gonna do afterwards they usually say go on a holiday


----------



## kingrollo (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> That’s the point, it’s like saying count someone who died because they got hit by a bus, but had CV-19 in their system, as a CV-19 death.


It's absolutely nothing like that. As you well know.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Apr 2020)

Could there be something in this -

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v1



> COVID-19 has spread to most countries in the world. Puzzlingly, the impact of the disease is different in different countries. These differences are attributed to differences in cultural norms, mitigation efforts, and health infrastructure. Here we propose that national differences in COVID-19 impact could be partially explained by the different national policies respect to Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) childhood vaccination. BCG vaccination has been reported to offer broad protection to respiratory infections.



Spain has had over 13000 deaths but Portugal only 340 - both on the same peninsula. Portugal has BCG vaccination programme, Spain doesn't.

The UK stopped mass BCG in 2005


----------



## DCLane (8 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> The irony that it's taken a deadly respiratory disease to being down deadly air pollution levels.
> Just as many can benefit from latter they are prevented by the former.
> Hopefully more will start to question how we keep them down once this is over.





Eziemnaik said:


> I think as much as we all would like that to happen it will not be happening. When asking friends what are they gonna do afterwards they usually say go on a holiday



I'm guessing some employers will decide the 'working from home' aspect saves money and is more productive: my neighbour's office isn't re-opening after this is over so they're all going to continue working from home.


----------



## Pale Rider (8 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It's absolutely nothing like that. As you well know.


There is some interpretation to be done.

Many deaths are similar to that of Eddie Large.

He was admitted to hospital - virus free - with a serious heart problem.

He caught the virus in hospital and died.

Death may have been imminent anyway, so a reasonable view is the virus speeded his demise, but didn't entirely cause it.

It was the final straw that finished him off, but it's not quite accurate to day he died of the virus.

The BBC has taken to reporting such cases as '...died with corona virus' which is a fair attempt at getting the meaning across.

The NHS reports deaths as those with underlying health issues and those without.

Apportioning the impact of the two things is difficult.

No doubt some underlying health issue deaths will have been of patients who had lived with their underlying issue for a long time, and would have lived with it for years to come had they not caught the virus.

But some patients will already have been on borrowed time.

Ultimately, it may not matter.

The virus is fiercely contagious and can kill anyone, so the case to throw everything at it to stop it is already made.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52136768


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Apr 2020)




----------



## kingrollo (8 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> There is some interpretation to be done.
> 
> Many deaths are similar to that of Eddie Large.
> 
> ...



What to put on death certs has always been controversial 

A few years back my father suffered a heart attack - he survived but was never the same after it - a few months after he developed a cough was admitted to hospital - a few days later his heart was so weak he couldn't clear the fluid from his lungs - and pneumonia developed - he died shortly afterwards. IMO his weak heart killed him - but pneumonia was listed as the cause of death.


----------



## Eziemnaik (8 Apr 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...bby-to-rewrite-carbon-deal-due-to-coronavirus

So some of the worst polluters are already trying to make sure the business goes on as usual


View: https://twitter.com/jennineak/status/1247718308377313280?s=20


----------



## Low Gear Guy (8 Apr 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> One theory is that the virus can attach to dust particles such as exhaust particulates as well as solid surfaces. An increase in pollution could result in a new peak of cases.


Edit: 
www.simaonlus.it/wpsima/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID_19_position-paper_ENG.pdf


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> He's withholding funding as they "did a bad job" in controlling the pandemic
> 
> It's just politicking. His administration did a bad job so he's deflecting blame. It's completely unsurprising in the run up to the November elections but it remains somewhat unedifying


There has been some press talk of no longer covering his marathon briefing sessions because he's clearly using them as electioneering while the Democrats don't get a look in. I don't think the press will be that brave though.


----------



## DaveReading (8 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> The irony that it's taken a deadly respiratory disease to being down deadly air pollution levels.
> Just as many can benefit from latter they are prevented by the former.



Even if you are locked down at home, indoors, you still are benefitting from the improvement in overall air quality.


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

Every so often, there's a bit of news where I just think "crikey, this is bad"... the Belgian Army have been sent into some care homes (pic) because there is no longer enough healthy trained staff to maintain services.

Also in the rtbf news: they think peak may have been reached, squabbles over mask distribution, still waiting for test kits for care homes that may start arriving today, a possible new treatment involving plasma transfusions from recovered covid-19 victims, the King visits his local hospital but does not enter the covid bit and the greeting line up stretching across the car park at 2m gaps (pic, partial) may be the longest ever seen, some districts suspend various tourist-related taxes including hotel stays, terrace seating and tours, while businesses warn that will not be enough as April's utility bills land with no prospect of Easter trade, news from Wuhan, USA and France including the pictured shot suggesting French police have to get really quite close to scan/photo someone's ADD (travel exception self-certificate)


----------



## BoldonLad (8 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> *We're only testing those who are hospitalised*. Given that we can expect only 20% of known CV-19 cases (from the Chinese data) end up in hospital, that implies that there are 240,000 cases in total............



It would appear there is some testing of those not hospitalised, although it may be restricted to NHS Staff. Eldest daughter was tested today. She is a Nurse Practitioner. Test was positive. So far, symptoms very mild.


----------



## BoldonLad (8 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> 62 is not old. And it is impossible as some have done to infer anything about underlying health issues from that. *I’m 63*.....on that basis, I’d better book my funeral now.



A mere child


----------



## BoldonLad (8 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Moms and Dads die of poverty as well


we all die eventually, it is inevitable.


----------



## Rocky (8 Apr 2020)

I have just written a condolences card to the widow of a friend who has recently died of Covid. I first met this man nearly 50 years ago. We shared many happy Saturdays on and off the rugby pitch. On a day when the statistics look truly awful, it’s worth remembering that there are real people and real tragedies behind each and every case.


----------



## BoldonLad (8 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> true and my bulb kit had a main bulb, and a side light bulb, both sides had blown, and I needed to replace a main as well, I didn’t have enough, and the same 501 5W5 is used on my number plate and those had blown as well.
> 
> So I needed bulbs and fuses.
> 
> ...



Just a detail, but, MOT on cars has been given 6 months "grace" AFAIK


----------



## tom73 (8 Apr 2020)

@Brompton Bruce


----------



## Rocky (8 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Brompton Bruce


Thank you.....I’m feeling a little sad at the moment.


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> On a positive note hydroxychloroquine has been touted as one of the potential cures of CV


However, medics in Sweden have discovered that the side effects are often worse than the disease, so aren’t recommending it.


----------



## kingrollo (8 Apr 2020)

I wouldn't be surprised if the lockdwon is tightened rather than eased.
There seems a growing feeling that the UK got this badly wrong - our figures today look very bad *

*Yes I know they aren't actually today's figures.


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

One of our biggest customers has decided to send us a shipment of masks as way of a thank you for keeping their supply chain going, which is nice of them. They are based in Wuhan.


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I wouldn't be surprised if the lockdwon is tightened rather than eased.
> There seems a growing feeling that the UK got this badly wrong - our figures today look very bad *
> 
> *Yes I know they aren't actually today's figures.


However nearly all the experts now agree that our figures seem to indicate that the rate s have stabilised / the curve has flattened, so we may actually be out of this mess soon. In fact the government are considering letting schools and nurseries re open after Easter, as the experts don’t believe that poses a particularly high risk, and it will allow some people back into the economy.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (8 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Just a detail, but, MOT on cars has been given 6 months "grace" AFAIK




That does not mean people are allowed to drive vehicles that are unroadworthy. The C&U regs still apply and will be enforced.


----------



## BoldonLad (8 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Is it just me or is anyone else getting fed up of some of the inane and intrusive questions from the newsreaders and journalists?


No, it is not just you


----------



## BoldonLad (8 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> That does not mean people are allowed to drive vehicles that are unroadworthy. The C&U regs still apply and will be enforced.


Agreed. But, then again, I don't recall saying it did.


----------



## pubrunner (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> However nearly all the experts now agree that our figures seem to indicate that the rate s have stabilised / the curve has flattened, so we may actually be out of this mess *soon*.



I'm not sure how long 'soon' might be, but I'll be surprised if the lock-down ends before the end of May.


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

pubrunner said:


> I'm not sure how long 'soon' might be, but I'll be surprised if the lock-down ends before the end of May.


The government have also pondered allowing services such as hair salons to re open after Easter, which is probably a good thing, given I’m starting to resemble Chewbacca out of Star Wars.


----------



## Dave7 (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> The government have also pondered allowing services such as hair salons to re open after Easter, which is probably a good thing, given I’m starting to resemble Chewbacca out of Star Wars.


The government might allow it but I cant imagine many hairdressers willing to do it. They would have to be seriously desperate.


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

Dave7 said:


> The government might allow it but I cant imagine many hairdressers willing to do it. They would have to be seriously desperate.


What's the problem? 
https://pic.twitter.com/sKiGkIEprc


----------



## stowie (8 Apr 2020)

On another note, anyone got _any _idea how anyone can manage to link Coronavirus with 5G?


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

stowie said:


> On another note, anyone got _any _idea how anyone can manage to link Coronavirus with 5G?


No. Should we have let the "gargle bleach to kill covid 19" hoax continue because that would probably have stopped a lot of other hoaxes spreading?  But I guess the NHS workers would feel they had to try to save them and they don't really have time for that shoot now.


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

stowie said:


> On another note, anyone got _any _idea how anyone can manage to link Coronavirus with 5G?


Aha, yep, it was the 5G signals that caused the virus in the bats to mutate, then the scientists impregnated all our bog rolls with Russian 5G enabled nano tracker troll bots. Then the mutant 5G corona bats were eaten by snakes, who were eaten by people. Then the people all got dysentery ( a well known symptom of Coronawhasisname) and wiped them selves with the nano tracker Russian 5G enabled troll bot impregnated bog roll. So now we are all being tracked by Russia, and all because of 5G technology, and mutant 5G Corona bats ( obvs).


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Aha, yep, it was the 5G signals that caused the virus in the bats to mutate, then the scientists impregnated all our bog rolls with Russian 5G enabled nano tracker troll bots. Then the mutant 5G corona bats were eaten by snakes, who were eaten by people. Then the people all got dysentery ( a well known symptom of Coronawhasisname) and wiped them selves with the nano tracker Russian 5G enabled troll bot impregnated bog roll. So now we are all being tracked by Russia, and all because of 5G technology, and mutant 5G Corona bats ( obvs).


Well, that explains where all the bog rolls went.


----------



## kingrollo (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> However nearly all the experts now agree that our figures seem to indicate that the rate s have stabilised / the curve has flattened, so we may actually be out of this mess soon. In fact the government are considering letting schools and nurseries re open after Easter, as the experts don’t believe that poses a particularly high risk, and it will allow some people back into the economy.


Really - you might want to tell the chancellor that - he's just been on TV saying more or less the opposite.

There is no chance of the lockdown being lifted early - Matt Hancock.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...reopen-straight-after-easter-officials-insist


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> BBC TV says they've put Boris in a stable.
> 
> I may have misheard that



Straight from the horses mouth?


----------



## Edwardoka (8 Apr 2020)

stowie said:


> On another note, anyone got _any _idea how anyone can manage to link Coronavirus with 5G?


Yes, we are living through the beginnings of a new dark age, where superstition masquerading as "common sense", bot-amplified piffle from bad actors, woo merchants and con-artists are competing for people's attention against truth, science and reason, and winning comfortably.

5G receivers are being manufactured by a Chinese company called Huawei and Covid started in a Chinese province called Hubei
COINSEDINSE, I FINK NOT


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Well, that explains where all the bog rolls went.


----------



## BoldonLad (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Aha, yep, it was the 5G signals that caused the virus in the bats to mutate, then the scientists impregnated all our bog rolls with Russian 5G enabled nano tracker troll bots. Then the mutant 5G corona bats were eaten by snakes, who were eaten by people. Then the people all got dysentery ( a well known symptom of Coronawhasisname) and wiped them selves with the nano tracker Russian 5G enabled troll bot impregnated bog roll. So now we are all being tracked by Russia, and all because of 5G technology, and mutant 5G Corona bats ( obvs).


 you missed out Huawei’s involvement


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> The irony that it's taken a deadly respiratory disease to being down deadly air pollution levels.
> Just as many can benefit from latter they are prevented by the former.
> Hopefully more will start to question how we keep them down once this is over.



There has been an analysis of air pollution and deaths in Italy. There is a very strong evidence that an increase of just 1 part per million of PM25 increases mortality by 12-15%. Don’t have a link to hand as I read it one or two days ago, but it was a research paper I found under the many appearing under Covid19 on the sites such as research gate etc.


----------



## Yellow Fang (8 Apr 2020)

There is a theory that Covid 19 escaped from a lab in Wuhan. I have only seen it espoused on an anti-China channel on YouTube and Sky Australia, which is much more right wing than Sky UK. However, a Chinese lab placed an advert for a virus specialist to work on a Coronavirus. So, they were experimenting or studying Coronavirus in the city where the contagion broke out. It has been assumed that the virus jumped species in one of Wuhan's exotic animal meat markets, but Sky reported a witness say she'd never seen any bats sold there.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Apr 2020)

Worth a read on the USA situation 

https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62065/


----------



## rualexander (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> .....but Sky reported a witness say she'd never seen any bats sold there.



But maybe Pangolins which had caught it from bats?


----------



## Tanis8472 (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> There is a *conspiracy* theory that Covid 19 escaped from a lab in Wuhan. I have only seen it espoused on an anti-China channel on YouTube and Sky Australia, which is much more right wing than Sky UK. However, a Chinese lab placed an advert for a virus specialist to work on a Coronavirus. So, they were experimenting or studying Coronavirus in the city where the contagion broke out. It has been assumed that the virus jumped species in one of Wuhan's exotic animal meat markets, but Sky reported a witness say she'd never seen any bats sold there.



Ftfy 👍


----------



## nickyboy (8 Apr 2020)

rualexander said:


> But maybe Pangolins which had caught it from bats?


Correct

I've eaten thousands of meals in mainland China in some weird and wonderful places and I've eaten some proper weird stuff. But I've never seen bats eaten in China, ever

They are eaten in Palau in Micronesia and people who visit there, amongst whom are Chinese, post videos of the soup. This is where the idea of "Chinese eating bats caused Coronavirus" came from. It's nonsense


----------



## Rocky (8 Apr 2020)

Yea, I heard David Icke caught it from his phone and coughed on Chairman Mao on his way to the chippy.


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Really - you might want to tell the chancellor that - he's just been on TV saying more or less the opposite.
> 
> There is no chance of the lockdown being lifted early - Matt Hancock.
> 
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...reopen-straight-after-easter-officials-insist


Whether the numbers are showing a positive reaction, and whether the incompetents in charge react, are 2 different issues.
Apologies ( again ) for the wail link but.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...four-step-exit-strategy-ease-UK-lockdown.html


----------



## PK99 (8 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Same old questions from Laura Kuenssberg et al.



So many of their questions seem designed to set elephant traps or try to commit the spokespeople into giving hostages to fortune - and in doing that the journos seem to be striving to out do each other.


----------



## slowmotion (8 Apr 2020)

rualexander said:


> But maybe Pangolins which had caught it from bats?


Well I never! I didn't know they played cricket.


----------



## Rocky (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Whether the numbers are showing a positive reaction, and whether the incompetents in charge react, are 2 different issues.
> Apologies ( again ) for the wail link but.
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...four-step-exit-strategy-ease-UK-lockdown.html


I'm not going to read that link, but I would challenge you on two things:

(i) the figures showing a positive reaction - I'm not sure you can say that - we've had the worst death figures (938) today, plus, given the ramping up of testing, it's really hard to make comparisons as the baseline of those tested positive keeps changing.
(ii) Whitty, Vallance and their teams are as good as you can get - incompetent they are not.

But apart from that I agree with you.


----------



## Yellow Fang (8 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Ftfy 👍



I think there are two virus labs in Wuhan. One was not far from their wet market.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC0gww2yznI


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIHWaaJNktQ


----------



## newfhouse (8 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Well I never! I didn't know they played cricket.


https://www.facebook.com/PangolinCricketClub


----------



## Rocky (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> I think there are two virus labs in Wuhan. One was not far from their wet market.
> 
> 
> View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC0gww2yznI
> ...



There are plenty of corona viruses circulating in the natural world and one has mutated. It hasn't leaked from a lab. Sky and Youtube should be ashamed of putting those out.


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'm not going to read that link, but I would challenge you on two things:
> 
> (i) the figures showing a positive reaction - I'm not sure you can say that - we've had the worst death figures (938) today, plus, given the ramping up of testing, it's really hard to make comparisons as the baseline of those tested positive keeps changing.
> (ii) Whitty, Vallance and their teams are as good as you can get - incompetent they are not.
> ...


If you don’t read the link, you can’t comment correctly ( you haven’t).


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> There are plenty of corona viruses circulating in the natural world and one has mutated. It hasn't leaked from a lab. Sky and Youtube should be ashamed of putting those out.


I believe there are 7 known, characterised, Corona Viruses ( it was 6 before this one).


----------



## Rocky (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> If you don’t read the link, you can’t comment correctly ( you haven’t).


LOL - I don't read children's comics. However, do feel free to respond to the points I've made.


----------



## Racing roadkill (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> I think there are two virus labs in Wuhan. One was not far from their wet market.
> 
> 
> View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC0gww2yznI
> ...



The teams from Southampton University have found this.
https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18...ientists-find-covid-19-tricks-way-human-body/
That sounds awfully like an artificially modified virus to my mind. Probably a work in progress. Step one get a Corona virus to work on. Step 2 modify it to make it do what it does to mask itself. Step 3 modify its RNA to make it a double hard bar steward. Step 4 develop a vaccine for it. Step 5 patent the vaccine. Step 6 release it into the population. Step 7 let it rip. Step 8 feign surprise, and tell the world you’re working hard on a vaccine for this thing. Step 9 charge stupid Government people all round the world huge money to use the vaccine you’ve miraculously found in your ‘library’ that seems to fit the bill. Only it somehow got out at step 2. Whoopsy daisy. It doesn’t sound quite so mad on the third reading


----------



## Rocky (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> The teams from Southampton University have found this.
> https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18...ientists-find-covid-19-tricks-way-human-body/
> That sounds awfully like an artificially modified virus to my mind.


I think every single virologist in the world would disagree with you......it's called natural selection, that's why viruses are so effective. They mutate spontaneously.


----------



## newfhouse (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> That sounds awfully like an artificially modified virus to my mind.


What makes you say that?


----------



## Rocky (8 Apr 2020)

@Racing roadkill - you are spreading conspiracy theories and fake news. Please stop it. It is dangerous.


----------



## mjr (8 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> (ii) Whitty, Vallance and their teams are as good as you can get - incompetent they are not.


Are you sure? I feel Whitty seems hamstrung by political concerns because when asked about him, Han'cock, Gove and Boris all catching the virus, he wittered something about it being indiscriminate, rather than saying anything about probably having caught it from a lying fool who was proud of shaking hands with people long after most around the world had stopped.. https://www.newsweek.com/boris-johnson-says-shaken-hands-coronavirus-patients-1490214


----------



## Yellow Fang (8 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> There are plenty of corona viruses circulating in the natural world and one has mutated. It hasn't leaked from a lab. Sky and Youtube should be ashamed of putting those out.



Got proof? To me it sounds at least as plausible that the virus escaped from a lab where they were working on bat viruses than from the neighbouring fish market where they did not sell bats.


----------



## winjim (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> The teams from Southampton University have found this.
> https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18...ientists-find-covid-19-tricks-way-human-body/
> That sounds awfully like an artificially modified virus to my mind.


Protein glycation / glycosylation is not an uncommon process.


----------



## Rocky (8 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Are you sure? I feel Whitty seems hamstrung by political concerns because when asked about him, Han'cock, Gove and Boris all catching the virus, he wittered something about it being indiscriminate, rather than saying anything about probably having caught it from a lying fool who was proud of shaking hands with people long after most around the world had stopped.. https://www.newsweek.com/boris-johnson-says-shaken-hands-coronavirus-patients-1490214


Both have a long history in this field. Both are extremely competent senior academics. I know people who have worked with them over the years. They are not incompetent - which was the allegation. IMO, there are few countries which have their expertise in such key positions.


----------



## Rocky (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Got proof? To me it sounds at least as plausible that the virus escaped from a lab where they were working on bat viruses than from the neighbouring fish market where they did not sell bats.


It is more plausible that it simply mutated - that's what viruses (and bacteria) do. Don't forget epidemiologists were predicting that this would happen a couple of years ago - not because of poor biosecurity but because DNA mutates. It's simple Darwinism.


----------



## AuroraSaab (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> There is a theory that Covid 19 escaped from a lab in Wuhan. I have only seen it espoused on an anti-China channel on YouTube and Sky Australia, which is much more right wing than Sky UK. However, a Chinese lab placed an advert for a virus specialist to work on a Coronavirus. So, they were experimenting or studying Coronavirus in the city where the contagion broke out. It has been assumed that the virus jumped species in one of Wuhan's exotic animal meat markets, but Sky reported a witness say she'd never seen any bats sold there.


I read an article on a science website (forget which one) that, as noted on here, the most likely route was from bats to humans via a third carrier, such as a pangolin. As for the lab theory - I wouldn't be surprised if China had knowledge of the virus far earlier than they have disclosed and were recruiting scientists to study it from early on.


----------



## kingrollo (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Whether the numbers are showing a positive reaction, and whether the incompetents in charge react, are 2 different issues.
> Apologies ( again ) for the wail link but.
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...four-step-exit-strategy-ease-UK-lockdown.html


So what - that's an opinion in the daily mail. Youre post said the government was considering easing the lockdown and the schools may reopen straight after Easter.

Numerous govt sources , Whitty, Hancock. Rabb - have since said today the lockdown won't be eased anytime soon. An official from the Welsh government has come out and flatly said "schools will not be opening immediately after Easter.


That's not to deny some experts believe that closing schools helps much. But there is absolutely nothing to suggest the UK government is about to reopen schools or ease the lockdown anytime soon

Edit:- Even youre quoted source is saying May 4 as a possible day the schools re open !!!!!!


----------



## stowie (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Aha, yep, it was the 5G signals that caused the virus in the bats to mutate, then the scientists impregnated all our bog rolls with Russian 5G enabled nano tracker troll bots. Then the mutant 5G corona bats were eaten by snakes, who were eaten by people. Then the people all got dysentery ( a well known symptom of Coronawhasisname) and wiped them selves with the nano tracker Russian 5G enabled troll bot impregnated bog roll. So now we are all being tracked by Russia, and all because of 5G technology.



Makes perfect sense now. Thanks for the explanation - I am slightly embarrassed by the fact I missed the obvious connections.


----------



## Adam4868 (8 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Correct
> 
> I've eaten thousands of meals in mainland China in some weird and wonderful places and I've eaten some proper weird stuff. But I've never seen bats eaten in China, ever
> 
> They are eaten in Palau in Micronesia and people who visit there, amongst whom are Chinese, post videos of the soup. This is where the idea of "Chinese eating bats caused Coronavirus" came from. It's nonsense


They more than likely do,im guessing it might be a more "under the counter" type delicacy though.I spent a year traveling through China years ago.In some pretty obscure places.Come to think of it I'm sure I've seen it eaten in Vietnam aswell ? 
Totally of track here Nick and just remenising,I'm not even sure it was bat where the virus came from anyway !


----------



## winjim (8 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think every single virologist in the world would disagree with you......it's called natural selection, that's why viruses are so effective. They mutate spontaneously.


It literally says it in the article, other viruses are glycosylated. They give the example of HIV. It's interesting in terms of understanding this specific virus, but it's not in and of itself anything new.

I am not a virologist.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Got proof? To me it sounds at least as plausible that the virus escaped from a lab where they were working on bat viruses than from the neighbouring fish market where they did not sell bats.








Don't look at me. It's not illegal to be a batfish!


----------



## Rickshaw Phil (8 Apr 2020)

*Mod Note:*

Can I remind everyone that there is a lot of bullshit on the internet and the mod team do not want CycleChat used to spread it.

If you are going to make a claim about the source of the virus it should be backed up by a reputable source. YouTube, Twitter and Facebook are _not _reputable sources.

Thanks.


----------



## Stephenite (8 Apr 2020)

In Norway, kindergartens to reopen 20th April and schools (pupils ages 5/6 to 10/11 years) to reopen 27th April. - I could add a link but it's easy enough to find.

The crisis has been handled very well since the initial crisis but, there's a balancing act between combating the virus and reducing collateral damage and this time I think they've got it wrong. The numbers are very good at the moment, with 101 deaths and 19 deaths per M head of pop., but there's a leaky border with Sweden with their 68 deaths per M. I think there was political pressure to come up with a plan before the leaders took their easter holiday.


----------



## MarkF (8 Apr 2020)

In at 6am, been a spike in figures but I forgot to take a note, will post them tomorrow. No change apart from *all *staff now wearing eye protection when around *any *patients, as well as masks and gloves.

The vast majority of confirmed critical cases seem to be of two categories, elderly people (75+) who were likely on their way soonish, for one reason or another. Then middle aged cases, it's very sad but every one of these I have seen, male or female, has been obese.


----------



## Yellow Fang (8 Apr 2020)

This article says the virus shows no sign of being genetically engineered and did not escape from a lab,
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-lab.html

But that is not exactly what was being alleged. The species jump from bats to humans could have occurred by natural mutation in the laboratory, or when the researchers are out and about collecting them. To research bat viruses, it is useful to have diseased bats.


----------



## Yellow Fang (8 Apr 2020)

Rickshaw Phil said:


> *Mod Note:*
> 
> Can I remind everyone that there is a lot of bullshit on the internet and the mod team do not want CycleChat used to spread it.
> 
> ...


Is this a respectable enough source?
https://www.businessinsider.com/bor...ked-chinese-laboratory-covid-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
Or is The Guardian the only legitimate source on here?


----------



## Johnno260 (8 Apr 2020)

Virus mutate it’s why they’re so effective at what they do.

I was lead to believe that anything that’s been modified by man leaves obvious markers.

We have been due a pandemic for a while, these things have happened throughout history, I find the natural selection theory more plausible.

People just like something to blame.


----------



## Rocky (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Is this a respectable enough source?
> https://www.businessinsider.com/bor...ked-chinese-laboratory-covid-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
> Or is The Guardian the only legitimate source on here?


To quote from the article:

_The UK government believes the novel coronavirus may have accidentally leaked from a laboratory in the Chinese city of Wuhan where scientists were researching viruses, according to a Mail on Sunday newspaper report.

Most experts believe the outbreak of the virus began with animals passing the disease to humans in or near a market in the Chinese city of Wuhan where live animals were sold.

The Mail on Sunday report, however, says that while officials in Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government believe this is still the most likely explanation, it is "no longer being discounted" that a leak from a nearby laboratory actually caused the outbreak._

I think that provides your answer about the legitimacy of this as a source (it is drawing on the Mail on Sunday)


----------



## pawl (8 Apr 2020)

Just seen Jet2 intends to start holiday flights again from June 1

Do they know something we don’t?
.


----------



## Stephenite (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Is this a respectable enough source?
> https://www.businessinsider.com/bor...ked-chinese-laboratory-covid-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
> Or is The Guardian the only legitimate source on here?


No.

The article rehashes the Mail on Sunday article which is based upon nonsense. I know 9 year-olds with more common sense than you.

Edit: I'll rephrase - more _net_ sense .


----------



## winjim (8 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> To quote from the article:
> 
> _The UK government believes the novel coronavirus may have accidentally leaked from a laboratory in the Chinese city of Wuhan where scientists were researching viruses, according to a Mail on Sunday newspaper report.
> 
> ...





Stephenite said:


> No.
> 
> The article rehashes the Mail on Sunday article which is based upon nonsense. I know 9 year-olds with more common sense than you.


BI is one of those websites that sounds like it should be respectable, but really just regurgitates bullshit from other sources.


----------



## Rusty Nails (8 Apr 2020)

pawl said:


> Just seen Jet2 intends to start holiday flights again from June 1
> 
> Do they know something we don’t?
> .



Some posters like to think they do.


----------



## Eziemnaik (8 Apr 2020)

pawl said:


> Just seen Jet2 intends to start holiday flights again from June 1
> 
> Do they know something we don’t?
> .


Well from what I heard most the holiday airlines cancelled all flights till June.
TUI and other big operators are not selling dates untill June as well. Even if you use regular flights most of the hotels in the mediterranean are not opening till June
Plenty of places are already not planing to open this year at all.

Tui rep told me it is based on a guesstimate, basically they dont want to have a go again at millions of cancellation so playing it safe (in their opinion)


----------



## roubaixtuesday (8 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> To quote from the article:
> 
> _The UK government believes the novel coronavirus may have accidentally leaked from a laboratory in the Chinese city of Wuhan where scientists were researching viruses, according to a Mail on Sunday newspaper report.
> 
> ...



It's almost as though government sources want to leak nonsense to the Mail in order to stoke conspiracy theories as a way to deflect attention from government failures in handling the pandemic.


----------



## pawl (8 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Well from what I heard most the holiday airlines cancelled all flights till June.
> TUI and other big operators are not selling dates untill June as well. Even if you use regular flights most of the hotels in the mediterranean are not opening till June
> Plenty of places are already not planing to open this year at all.
> 
> Tui rep told me it is based on a guesstimate, basically they dont want to have a go again at millions of cancellation so playing it safe (in their opinion)




We have decided that we won’t go away this year.If things have improved may consider taking our pre Xmas trip to York.


----------



## kingrollo (8 Apr 2020)

pawl said:


> Just seen Jet2 intends to start holiday flights again from June 1
> 
> Do they know something we don’t?
> .


I think if they advertised holidays much earlier ...they wouldn't get many takers ?

Is it feasible you book a flight/hotel in June and it goes ahead ? - right now Just about IMO - but I wont be booking.


----------



## kingrollo (8 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It's almost as though government sources want to leak nonsense to the Mail in order to stoke conspiracy theories as a way to deflect attention from government failures in handling the pandemic.


Yep if the UK looks like the worst in Europe - you watch Rabb and co lay into Spain and Italy's counting methods.


----------



## marshmella (8 Apr 2020)

pawl said:


> Just seen Jet2 intends to start holiday flights again from June 1
> 
> Do they know something we don’t?
> .


It's the 17th of June we had the email yesterday we.were booked to go to Zante on the 6th so thats not happening.


----------



## Buck (8 Apr 2020)

I’m not thinking we’ll have normality by June. Things may have changed but it’s only 6 weeks away and i feel it’d be naive to to think otherwise.


----------



## Unkraut (8 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think that provides your answer about the legitimacy of this as a source (it is drawing on the Mail on Sunday)


There are plenty of Mail on Sunday readers who are still fixated with comparing this virus with the flu. It's enough to make you despair. The don't get why the lockdown is necessary and simply moan about the government restricting what they can do.

Whatever the origin of the virus this is irrelevant to what needs to be done to counteract it, and it strikes me speculating about this is simply a waste of time at present.


----------



## slowmotion (8 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> There are plenty of Mail on Sunday readers who are still fixated with comparing this virus with the flu. It's enough to make you despair. The don't get why the lockdown is necessary and simply moan about the government restricting what they can do.
> 
> Whatever the origin of the virus this is irrelevant to what needs to be done to counteract it, and it strikes me speculating about this is simply a waste of time at present.


Hang about! The parishioners on CycleChat are world-renowned experts at wild speculation.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (8 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> it strikes me speculating about this is simply a waste of time at present.



Not if you're deliberately trying to deflect attention from other things, it isn't


----------



## Unkraut (8 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Hang about! The parishioners on CycleChat are world-renowned experts at wild speculation.


That's different ...


----------



## Wobblers (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> This article says the virus shows no sign of being genetically engineered and did not escape from a lab,
> https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-lab.html
> 
> But that is not exactly what was being alleged. The species jump from bats to humans could have occurred by natural mutation in the laboratory, or when the researchers are out and about collecting them. To research bat viruses, it is useful to have diseased bats.



Since SARS, there has been much research into coronaviruses - because virologists have suspected that if coronaviruses could jump species and infect humans once, it was likely that this would happen again. In light of that, it's best to try and understand as much as possible about them, so as to find out ways to reduce the chances of human infection and find ways to deal with them.

MERS and now SARS-CoV-2 have shown that their suspicions were all too accurate. This is the thing - we already have two examples where a coronavirus jumped species into humans without the assistance of laboratories. Furthermore, there occur thousands of chances every day of cross-species infection outside of a lab. We know that coronaviruses can do this by themselves. They have far more opportunity to do so outside of a lab. It is far more likely that this arose in some chance encounter in some marketplace.


----------



## Wobblers (8 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> It would appear there is some testing of those not hospitalised, although it may be restricted to NHS Staff. Eldest daughter was tested today. She is a Nurse Practitioner. Test was positive. So far, symptoms very mild.



Yes, they're finally getting round to testing NHS staff, and not before time. I wish your daughter all the best, and that it stays very mild.


----------



## Wobblers (8 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Because they haven’t got the amount of ‘fuel’ of certain European territories ( nor has the U.K.) The U.K. is looking like it’s flattened the curve, so where that lot got the idea that the U.K. will be the worst hit Euro territory is beyond me. An American organisation was trying to float a figure of 66000 total U.K. deaths, which is even more laughable. 20000 deaths in total would be considered a touch, and at the current trajectory, the U.K. will be no where near that figure ( it should be considerably lower). Sweden decided to tell the politicians to sit back and shut up, and let the scientific experts deal with the nitty gritty. So far, it’s paid off.



Can I borrow your crystal ball, please? It'll save me actually having to do any work such as squander time getting that pesky data needed for my next paper. I'm certainly not going to hazard a guess as to the ultimate number of deaths as there is jst too many variables, and we are still far too early into this outbreak to make any meaningful guess. Note that even that US group ran models multiple times and got results that ranged between 14,500 and 219,000. The reported figure was just the average (and the Guardian doesn't even say whether or not this was the median or mean - I thought it was supposed to be a quality paper?). Such variability indicates these sort of predictions are of limited use.

What I can say is the UK is doing significantly worse than Italy and France (and Spain, but I haven't plotted the Spanish numbers below):






Currently, we're doing worse than any major European country. We will be fortunate if our ultimate number of deaths is similar to that of Italy.


----------



## Yellow Fang (8 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> Since SARS, there has been much research into coronaviruses - because virologists have suspected that if coronaviruses could jump species and infect humans once, it was likely that this would happen again. In light of that, it's best to try and understand as much as possible about them, so as to find out ways to reduce the chances of human infection and find ways to deal with them.
> 
> MERS and now SAR-CoV2-19 have shown that their suspicions were all too accurate. This is the thing - we already have two examples where a coronavirus jumped species into humans without the assistance of laboratories. Furthermore, there occur thousands of chances every day of cross-species infection outside of a lab. We know that coronaviruses can do this by themselves.* They have far more opportunity to do so outside of a lab. It is far more likely that this arose in some chance encounter in some marketplace.*


Maybe, but the Chinese authorities allege that the virus transferred to a human in the Wuhan sea market. So it's not just a chance encounter in some marketplace, but a chance encounter in a specific marketplace, which coincidentally is just down the road from one of their virus labs. 

It is totally understandable that the Chinese would want to research Coronaviruses in light of SARS and MERS. I am not suggesting the virus was engineered or deliberately let loose. I am saying that it seems at least as likely the virus transferred to humans in the course of their virus research than it did from their wet market. 

I have read that the virus may have transferred from bats to pangolins and then from pangolins to humans. Alright, I don't know, do lots of Pangolins suffer from Coronavirus? In any event, that is two species the virus has to jump. Bats to humans is only one.


----------



## Eziemnaik (8 Apr 2020)

Some more reading for the bored
Yet to be peer reviewed
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v2


----------



## DCLane (8 Apr 2020)

@MarkF - be careful out there

SWMBO's in full PPE kit as well when she's seeing patients.


----------



## Wobblers (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Maybe, but the Chinese authorities allege that the virus transferred to a human in the Wuhan sea market. So it's not just a chance encounter in some marketplace, but a chance encounter in a specific marketplace, which coincidentally is just down the road from one of their virus labs.
> 
> It is totally understandable that the Chinese would want to research Coronaviruses in light of SARS and MERS. I am not suggesting the virus was engineered or deliberately let loose. I am saying that it seems at least as likely the virus transferred to humans in the course of their virus research than it did from their wet market.
> 
> I have read that the virus may have transferred from bats to pangolins and then from pangolins to humans. Alright, I don't know, do lots of Pangolins suffer from Coronavirus? In any event, that is two species the virus has to jump. Bats to humans is only one.



Firstly, coincidences happen. In fact, they happen all the time. Thousands of things happen to you every day. That means odd million-to-one events are surprisingly common. Untold thousands of them happen every day in Britain, just because so many things happen to all 66 million of us. If it didn't - well, that would be _weird_, wouldn't it?

Secondly, it is by no means clear that the vicinity of the Wuhan seafood market was the site of the original coronavirus to human transmission. It does seem to be the focus of early community transmission of the virus, but the original inter-species infection may have taken place elsewhere, and that elsewhere need not have been local. As yet we don't even know who the index case is, so it is simply impossible to know where and when the original cross-species infection happened. On a simple probability basis, somewhere outside of a lab is more likely, given that there are many millions of more opportunities for it to happen. Coincidence may make for good conspiracies, but not for good science.


----------



## stowie (8 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> I have read that the virus may have transferred from bats to pangolins and then from pangolins to humans. Alright, I don't know, do lots of Pangolins suffer from Coronavirus? In any event, that is two species the virus has to jump. Bats to humans is only one.



Yes, that is precisely why Pangolins are suspected to be somewhere in this virus chain as strains very similar to the one causing the current pandemic have been found in them.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (8 Apr 2020)

pawl said:


> Just seen Jet2 intends to start holiday flights again from June 1
> 
> Do they know something we don’t?
> .


In order to go on holiday in June you would need:
No lockdown in UK
No lockdown in holiday location
Flight
Travel insurance that covers all risks

I can't see all four being available until at least August.


----------



## Rusty Nails (8 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> Firstly, coincidences happen. In fact, they happen all the time. Thousands of things happen to you every day. That means odd million-to-one events are surprisingly common. Untold thousands of them happen every day in Britain, just because so many things happen to all 66 million of us. If it didn't - well, that would be _weird_, wouldn't it?
> 
> Secondly, it is by no means clear that the vicinity of the Wuhan seafood market was the site of the original coronavirus to human transmission. It does seem to be the focus of early community transmission of the virus, but the original inter-species infection may have taken place elsewhere, and that elsewhere need not have been local. As yet we don't even know who the index case is, so it is simply impossible to know where and when the original cross-species infection happened. On a simple probability basis, somewhere outside of a lab is more likely, given that there are many millions of more opportunities for it to happen. Coincidence may make for good conspiracies, but not for good science.



Much easier to make crap up.


----------



## Inertia (8 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Much easier to make crap up.


It seems like more work. More fun to do and watch the results of your speculation maybe.


----------



## Wobblers (8 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Much easier to make crap up.



I reject your baseless insinuation. I'll have you know that I only produce the highest quality BS


----------



## Eziemnaik (8 Apr 2020)

And the very last piece of science for tonight, basically confirming laughed at 2 weeks ago opinion of prof Gupta that there already are many millions of infections
https://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/32...H2sa5I578P0FY_Gz4Qwve54T7gxlS0-PaY7_DHRk2n0PQ


----------



## lane (8 Apr 2020)

Seems fairly obvious. One of the top bods in UK was saying a week ago that 3% to 5% of UK are infected which is also consistent with anticipated number of deaths if the fatality rate is 1% or lower.


----------



## Wobblers (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> And the very last piece of science for tonight, basically confirming laughed at 2 weeks ago opinion of prof Gupta that there already are many millions of infections
> https://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/32...H2sa5I578P0FY_Gz4Qwve54T7gxlS0-PaY7_DHRk2n0PQ



Err, no. No it doesn't.

Gupta suggested that up to half the UK population was infected by mid March. This estimate is for 2 million infections as of 31st March. That is an order of magnitude difference.


----------



## Yellow Fang (9 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> Since SARS, there has been much research into coronaviruses - because virologists have suspected that if coronaviruses could jump species and infect humans once, it was likely that this would happen again. In light of that, it's best to try and understand as much as possible about them, so as to find out ways to reduce the chances of human infection and find ways to deal with them.
> 
> MERS and now SARS-CoV2-19 have shown that their suspicions were all too accurate. This is the thing - we already have two examples where a coronavirus jumped species into humans without the assistance of laboratories. Furthermore, there occur thousands of chances every day of cross-species infection outside of a lab. We know that coronaviruses can do this by themselves. They have far more opportunity to do so outside of a lab. It is far more likely that this arose in some chance encounter in some marketplace.



Well the intermediary species probably was not Pangolins. They were not on the list of species sold at the sea market, the first know case had no connection to the market, and at least one paper has concluded it wasn't them.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-come-from-was-it-really-wuhans-animal-market
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25731

To be fair, in this paper they conclude that the virus did not escape from a lab, although they could not rule it out. I didn't understand it very well, but I think the jist was that too many mutations were needed for the jump from bats to humans to be successful. Either the virus had to jump to a species with an immune system more similar to ours first, or there were repeated cross infections from animals to humans and maybe a bit of limited human to human infection before the final mutation occurred that allowed the virus to really take off.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

This article says the virus did not escape from a lab, although the author considered it a possibility. It says the virus had a mutation to protect itself from immune attack, which it would not have evolved in a culture dish.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature

OTOH this article points the finger at the Wuhan virus lab. It says the Chinese state issued a directive tightening up viral security measures at their virology labs shortly after the outbreak, that viruses have escaped from labs before, that they had sent their top biological warfare man to Wuhan to contain the outbreak, and that some lab workers used to make extra money by selling on their animals.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-...have-leaked-from-a-lab/?utm_source=reddit.com

There are quite a few articles on the web saying the virus did not originate in the Wuhan sea market, and that the very earliest victims did not have a link to the market. So if the virus did not come from the market, where did it come from? If someone brought in the virus from outside Wuhan, why didn't the epidemic break out from where it was imported from?


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Seems fairly obvious. One of the top bods in UK was saying a week ago that 3% to 5% of UK are infected which is also consistent with anticipated number of deaths if the fatality rate is 1% or lower.


Which, according to the paper I linked before is well below 1%, closer to 0.1%


----------



## gavgav (9 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Is this a respectable enough source?
> https://www.businessinsider.com/bor...ked-chinese-laboratory-covid-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
> Or is The Guardian the only legitimate source on here?


No


----------



## Racing roadkill (9 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think every single virologist in the world would disagree with you......it's called natural selection, that's why viruses are so effective. They mutate spontaneously.


However, the U.S.A. officially classify it as a “biological agent” ( as in a biological weapon) now and use anti terror legislation to deal with anyone claiming to be deliberately spreading it.


----------



## winjim (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> However, the U.S.A. officially classify it as a “biological agent” ( as in a biological weapon) now and use anti terror legislation to deal with anyone claiming to be deliberately spreading it.


SMH


----------



## alicat (9 Apr 2020)

^^^ what does SMH mean, @winjim?


----------



## Racing roadkill (9 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> Can I borrow your crystal ball, please? It'll save me actually having to do any work such as squander time getting that pesky data needed for my next paper. I'm certainly not going to hazard a guess as to the ultimate number of deaths as there is jst too many variables, and we are still far too early into this outbreak to make any meaningful guess. Note that even that US group ran models multiple times and got results that ranged between 14,500 and 219,000. The reported figure was just the average (and the Guardian doesn't even say whether or not this was the median or mean - I thought it was supposed to be a quality paper?). Such variability indicates these sort of predictions are of limited use.
> 
> What I can say is the UK is doing significantly worse than Italy and France (and Spain, but I haven't plotted the Spanish numbers below):
> 
> ...


Nonsense. The only reason our ‘trajectory’ looks like that graph, is because our people don’t seem to be able to decide how to count. Every time the existing numbers, collected in the agreed way, at the time, look more promising, the way in which the numbers are worked out changes. New cases are included, from sources which really don’t bear relation to the originally agreed way, which was primarily to try and feed data into the algorithm used to predict flows of people who were reaching hospitals ( and more importantly) getting to the stage of needing critical care / ventilators. That’s gone clean out of the window now, and the numbers are being added to, by cases which would have little / no effect on the important ‘flow rate’ in order to justify the situation we find ourselves in now, by keeping the ‘perceived fear factor’ high.


----------



## winjim (9 Apr 2020)

alicat said:


> ^^^ what does SMH mean, @winjim?


Shaking My Head. 

An expression of frustration, or despair, or disbelief etc


----------



## newfhouse (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> However, the U.S.A. officially classify it as a “biological agent” ( as in a biological weapon) now and use anti terror legislation to deal with anyone claiming to be deliberately spreading it.


The same as salmonella then. Your point?


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

Interesting data from Sweden, updated daily, describing ICU occupancy, risk factors (age, obesity, diabetes, hypertension etc), sex bias

https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/

It is interesting to compare transparency compared to UK or Spain


----------



## Racing roadkill (9 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> The same as salmonella then. Your point?


My point is that it’s classified as a terrorist weapon in the USA.


----------



## Rocky (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> My point is that it’s classified as a terrorist weapon in the USA.


And so? How does that contribute to the debate about its origins?

Did you know it was also illegal to knowingly infect someone with HIV?


----------



## winjim (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> My point is that it’s classified as a terrorist weapon in the USA.


You linked it to your claim that it was developed in a lab. I already explained why that was bogus.


----------



## Racing roadkill (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Interesting data from Sweden, updated daily, describing ICU occupancy, risk factors (age, obesity, diabetes, hypertension etc), sex bias
> 
> https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/
> 
> It is interesting to compare transparency compared to UK or Spain


You could almost trust that lot. Unlike our lot, who’s bumbling incompetence means that making any sort of informed judgement is virtually impossible ( that won’t stop the hand wringers trying though).


----------



## Rocky (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> You could almost trust that lot. Unlike our lot, who’s bumbling incompetence means that making any sort of informed judgement is virtually impossible ( that won’t stop the hand wringers trying though).


Bumbling incompetence.....fine words from a man who spreads lies and conspiracy theories.


----------



## Proto (9 Apr 2020)

My apologies if this has been posted before but full marks to Emily Maitlis

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ht-bbc-inequality-boris-johnson-a9456696.html


----------



## lane (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Which, according to the paper I linked before is well below 1%, closer to 0.1%



If that is the paper saying 50% are already infected and the infection started spreading much earlier in Jan I really have serious doubts about that to the point I am amazed it was published. 50% of people got infected but no one died and nor suddenly we have 1,000 a day dieing while the other 50% get infected. Hardly credible. Wishful thinking.


----------



## Racing roadkill (9 Apr 2020)

I think there should be a universal law adopted, across the world, that if it’s usually given a collar and / or a name, by people, or that the majority of people would run out screaming, if they found one in their bathroom, it’s made illegal to eat it. That might help stop any repeats of this situation.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Interesting data from Sweden, updated daily, describing ICU occupancy, risk factors (age, obesity, diabetes, hypertension etc), sex bias
> 
> https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/
> 
> It is interesting to compare transparency compared to UK or Spain


It would be good to also have obesity rates to establish how it stands as a risk factor.


----------



## lane (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> I think there should be a universal law adopted, across the world, that if it’s usually given a collar and / or a name, by people, or that the majority of people would run out screaming, if they found one in their bathroom, it’s made illegal to eat it. That might help stop any repeats of this situation.



If you really want to be safe you should take that a bit further and ban the eating and farming of all meat products.


----------



## Racing roadkill (9 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> If that is the paper saying 50% are already infected and the infection started spreading much earlier in Jan I really have serious doubts about that to the point I am amazed it was published. 50% of people got infected but no one died and nor suddenly we have 1,000 a day dieing while the other 50% get infected. Hardly credible. Wishful thinking.


Not at all. It’s well known that a significant percentage of people who get infected are completely asymptotic, or have such mild symptoms that they wouldn’t bother mentioning it normally. You can’t report that someone has died, of something you didn’t know existed. In the early days of this outbreak, that’s what would have happened. The “sudden” amount of deaths, was only because they now had something to attribute the death to.


----------



## Julia9054 (9 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It would be good to also have obesity rates to establish how it stands as a risk factor.


Also gathering sex disaggregated data in the UK would be a good idea. The number of countries that seem to think that this data is unimportant is surprising given that it does appear to affect men and women differently.


----------



## lane (9 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It would be good to also have obesity rates to establish how it stands as a risk factor.



I have seen reports it is a significant factor but most likely I would guess due to linked conditions.


----------



## lane (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Not at all. It’s well known that a significant percentage of people who get infected are completely asymptotic, or have such mild symptoms that they wouldn’t bother mentioning it normally. You can’t report that someone has died, of something you didn’t know existed. In the early days of this outbreak, that’s what would have happened. The “sudden” amount of deaths, was only because they now had something to attribute the death to.



I really think we might have noticed that all the ICUs were filling up with people with similar issues. We certainly seemed to have noticed recently.


----------



## winjim (9 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> I really think we might have noticed that all the ICUs were filling up with people with similar issues. We certainly seemed to have noticed recently.


You can diagnose a respiratory infection without having to identify the specific pathogen involved.


----------



## lane (9 Apr 2020)

Even if the death rate is 0.01% (it clearly is much higher but for arguments sake) if 50% of people have had it that's 30,000 deaths and a much higher figure admitted to hospital in a couple of months I think we would have noticed. It didn't happen. Infection rates are nearer 5% than 50% currently sadly.


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> If that is the paper saying 50% are already infected and the infection started spreading much earlier in Jan I really have serious doubts about that to the point I am amazed it was published. 50% of people got infected but no one died and nor suddenly we have 1,000 a day dieing while the other 50% get infected. Hardly credible. Wishful thinking.


Could be people had died, hadn't been tested, deaths have been attributed to respiratory diseases


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Not at all. It’s well known that a significant percentage of people who get infected are completely asymptotic, or have such mild symptoms that they wouldn’t bother mentioning it normally. You can’t report that someone has died, of something you didn’t know existed. In the early days of this outbreak, that’s what would have happened. The “sudden” amount of deaths, was only because they now had something to attribute the death to.


It isn't known at all. In fact WHO very early on went into Wuhan - and found no evidence of a large number of undetected infections. Admiittley the sample was very small.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> The “sudden” amount of deaths, was only because they now had something to attribute the death to



Absolute nonsense. 

In order to hold this opinion you need to provide an explanation for overflowing ICUs and morgues other than COVID. 

You can't, because there isn't one


----------



## rualexander (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Interesting data from Sweden, updated daily, describing ICU occupancy, risk factors (age, obesity, diabetes, hypertension etc), sex bias
> 
> https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/
> 
> It is interesting to compare transparency compared to UK or Spain



https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/76a7364b-4b76-ea11-9124-00505601089b


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

rualexander said:


> https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/76a7364b-4b76-ea11-9124-00505601089b


Stand corrected


----------



## Racing roadkill (9 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Absolute nonsense.
> 
> In order to hold this opinion you need to provide an explanation for overflowing ICUs and morgues other than COVID.
> 
> You can't, because there isn't one


According to the people on the front line at several large hospitals the morgues and ICUs aren’t “overflowing” ( quite the opposite is true ) , in fact they are reporting that there’s no real need for the ‘Nightingale hospitals’ as things stand, as the flow of patients is not that severe at present ( which was the original primary idea of the lockdown measures) that is just about the worst bit of unjustified rubbish that’s been spouted on here so far. You have to remember that the ICU system is not a closed system, people go in, they recover ( or die ) they then come out of the unit, and that place is vacant again. It’s all about managing the flow / throughput ( or was until the handwringers managed to change the agenda).


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Absolute nonsense.
> 
> In order to hold this opinion you need to provide an explanation for overflowing ICUs and morgues other than COVID.
> 
> You can't, because there isn't one


Indeed that was how it was discovered - that Dr in China noticed a surge in otherwise healthy people dying of Pneumonia.


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> According to the people on the front line at several large hospitals the morgues and ICUs aren’t “overflowing” ( quite the opposite is true ) , in fact they are reporting that there’s no real need for the ‘Nightingale hospitals’ as things stand, as the flow of patients is not that severe at present ( which was the original primary idea of the lockdown measures) that is just about the worst bit of unjustified rubbish that’s been spouted on here so far.


Really because here in the west Midlands they are predicting to be out of capacity by this weekend.

Wots you're overall beef with this ? - do you run a business that's going to go bump during the lockdown ?

The general theme of you're posts seem to be that this is greatly exaggerated or not even happening at all.

Pete.


----------



## Unkraut (9 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Also gathering sex disaggregated data in the UK would be a good idea. The number of countries that seem to think that this data is unimportant is surprising given that it does appear to affect men and women differently.


Interestingly enough the difference here early on was 57% male to 43% female. Since then it has evened out, and the position at midnight last night was a somewhat familiar figure of 52% male and 48% female.

I wonder if nearer the beginning women (sensibly) took the restrictions of social distancing and hand washing more seriously than men did.


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Interestingly enough the difference here early on was 57% male to 43% female. Since then it has evened out, and the position at midnight last night was a somewhat familiar figure of 52% male and 48% female.
> 
> I wonder if nearer the beginning women (sensibly) took the restrictions of social distancing and hand washing more seriously than men did.


It is then quite different from other countries, where proportions are close to 70/30
As they are in the ICNARC report


----------



## lane (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> According to the people on the front line at several large hospitals the morgues and ICUs aren’t “overflowing” ( quite the opposite is true ) , in fact they are reporting that there’s no real need for the ‘Nightingale hospitals’ as things stand, as the flow of patients is not that severe at present ( which was the original primary idea of the lockdown measures) that is just about the worst bit of unjustified rubbish that’s been spouted on here so far.



This whole discussion is based around 1 study which is very much an outlier and contradicts all other scientific thinking, the advice of the world health organisation and the thinking in virtually every other country in the world with most developed economies in some sort of lock down. It also contradicts common sense and what we can clearly see happening around us. I mean it's not quite as bad as thinking 5G masts are causing the virus but to be honest it's on those lines. Obviously you are free to think what you want.


----------



## Johnno260 (9 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> I have seen reports it is a significant factor but most likely I would guess due to linked conditions.



I would be shocked if obesity wasn’t a factor, these people will have a circulatory system that has to work a little harder also respiratory would be affected too.

it’s makes a lot of sense, also I would like to know if people with no underlying health issues were smokers as I think that has relevance.


----------



## Racing roadkill (9 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Really because here in the west Midlands they are predicting to be out of capacity by this weekend.
> 
> Wots you're overall beef with this ? - do you run a business that's going to go bump during the lockdown ?
> 
> ...


It is exaggerated, personally I’ve not really been inconvenienced ( other than a couple of tours having to be postponed ) and my life is not greatly different to how it was before all this kicked off. I’d rather it didn’t change any more, because of any misguided panicking, or incompetence from the ‘great white chiefs’. There are places that can be referenced, to see how it should be done, we aren’t doing those things, and it’s causing unnecessary problems. The more hand wringing occurs, the worse it gets. I used to live in a country where things like this were handled in a much better fashion, I despair of the wet wipes that are seemingly sharing my air of late.


----------



## Randombiker9 (9 Apr 2020)

Yeah, however compared to other countries at least were allowed out to excersize only once like a cycle run walk. It’s still like that at the moment although it’s possible this might change. I guess it will depend on the following weekend. 


anyway. If you like doctor who someones made a clip of doctor who and related it to the virus. 
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6ANNd6sHg4&feature=youtu.be


----------



## Rusty Nails (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> According to the people on the front line at several large hospitals the morgues and ICUs aren’t “overflowing” ( quite the opposite is true ) , in fact they are reporting that there’s no real need for the ‘Nightingale hospitals’ as things stand, as the flow of patients is not that severe at present ( which was the original primary idea of the lockdown measures) that is *just about the worst bit of unjustified rubbish that’s been spouted on here so far.* You have to remember that the ICU system is not a closed system, people go in, they recover ( or die ) they then come out of the unit, and that place is vacant again. It’s all about managing the flow / throughput ( or was until the handwringers managed to change the agenda).



You are the acknowledged expert at spouting unjustified rubbish, so forgive me if I treat your posts with the seriousness they deserve.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Stand corrected



It might be a good idea to assume gaps are down to your own, unskilled, lack of knowledge rather than experts' incompetence as a starting point in future. Same for @Racing roadkill 

This is the basis of scientific, and indeed all rational enquiry.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> According to the people on the front line at several large hospitals the morgues and ICUs aren’t “overflowing” ( quite the opposite is true ) , in fact they are reporting that there’s no real need for the ‘Nightingale hospitals’ as things stand, as the flow of patients is not that severe at present ( which was the original primary idea of the lockdown measures) that is just about the worst bit of unjustified rubbish that’s been spouted on here so far. You have to remember that the ICU system is not a closed system, people go in, they recover ( or die ) they then come out of the unit, and that place is vacant again. It’s all about managing the flow / throughput ( or was until the handwringers managed to change the agenda).



More unsourced assertions at odds with all the experts.

I'm not surprised.


----------



## Rocky (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> According to the people on the front line at several large hospitals the morgues and ICUs aren’t “overflowing” ( quite the opposite is true ) , in fact they are reporting that there’s no real need for the ‘Nightingale hospitals’ as things stand, as the flow of patients is not that severe at present ( which was the original primary idea of the lockdown measures) that is just about the worst bit of unjustified rubbish that’s been spouted on here so far. You have to remember that the ICU system is not a closed system, people go in, they recover ( or die ) they then come out of the unit, and that place is vacant again. It’s all about managing the flow / throughput ( or was until the handwringers managed to change the agenda).


This is dangerous fake news. It is patently untrue. My son works on a Covid ward at a London hospital and I can tell you, ICUs are full to capacity. I don't know your motivation for posting this rubbish but please stop.


----------



## vickster (9 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Interestingly enough the difference here early on was 57% male to 43% female. Since then it has evened out, and the position at midnight last night was a somewhat familiar figure of 52% male and 48% female.
> 
> I wonder if nearer the beginning women (sensibly) took the restrictions of social distancing and hand washing more seriously than men did.


More Male skiers coming back from the Italian Alps? This would appear to be what happened based on a report I heard to start the outbreak in Germany. Young hitherto healthy adults who have unfortunately spread the disease to more vulnerable Germans? Another potential reason for the relatively low death rate (thus far)


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It might be a good idea to assume gaps are down to your own, unskilled, lack of knowledge rather than experts' incompetence as a starting point in future. Same for @Racing roadkill
> 
> This is the basis of scientific, and indeed all rational enquiry.



So anything not supporting your view is not rational?


----------



## winjim (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> According to the people on the front line at several large hospitals the morgues and ICUs aren’t “overflowing” ( quite the opposite is true ) , in fact they are reporting that there’s no real need for the ‘Nightingale hospitals’ as things stand, as the flow of patients is not that severe at present ( which was the original primary idea of the lockdown measures) that is just about the worst bit of unjustified rubbish that’s been spouted on here so far. You have to remember that the ICU system is not a closed system, people go in, they recover ( or die ) they then come out of the unit, and that place is vacant again. It’s all about managing the flow / throughput ( or was until the handwringers managed to change the agenda).


Please stop trolling. It's annoying at the best of times but this is literally a life and death situation.


----------



## PK99 (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> So anything not supporting your view is not rational?



no, but spouting unsupported rubbish is (not rational)


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> So anything not supporting your view is not rational?



That's not at all what I wrote. Read it again?


----------



## Pale Rider (9 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> My son works on a Covid ward at a London hospital and I can tell you, ICUs are full to capacity



As demonstrated by the arrival of the first handful of patients in the overflow Nightingale field hospital.


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> no, but spouting unsupported rubbish is (not rational)


Well I posted links to papers by experts, how is it unsupported?


----------



## Rusty Nails (9 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> As demonstrated by the arrival of the first handful of patients in the overflow Nightingale field hospital.



Yebbut they weren't full on day one so must be an overreaction. Obvious to anyone with an ounce of common sense and that's all some people have.


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> This is dangerous fake news. It is patently untrue. My son works on a Covid ward at a London hospital and I can tell you, ICUs are full to capacity. I don't know your motivation for posting this rubbish but please stop. Your lies are causing harm.


I work at a hospital - not frontline - the feedback I get is pretty much as above ICUs are full.

I know a 54 year old - who spent 10 days in ICU - with that sort of turn around - there obviously aren't going to be enough ICU beds

I wish it were different - but it isn't.

Pete.


----------



## icowden (9 Apr 2020)

This is possibly the source of the story:-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/nightingale-emergency-coronavirus-hospital-london


----------



## Rocky (9 Apr 2020)

icowden said:


> This is possibly the source of the story:-
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/nightingale-emergency-coronavirus-hospital-london


Possibly, although that was a week ago and it was reporting speculation. And as @Pale Rider says, the new Nightingale Hospital is being used. A lot has changed in the space of a week.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Apr 2020)

I read on the BBC that only 17% of those who entered ICU with Covid19 have now left ICU. Doesn’t sound to me like they are getting freed up quickly.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (9 Apr 2020)

> Greater Manchester Police has warned people not to breach lockdown rules over Easter after it had to break up 660 parties last weekend.
> 
> Chief Constable Ian Hopkins said "each and every one of us need take this seriously".
> 
> ...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52221688


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Apr 2020)

I guess when the Kings College map next updates Manchester will look somewhat darker. Liverpool now at 1 in 20 people showing symptoms. This last updated on 5th April.


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

Yet another interesting stat from NHS UK
According to it at any given time 75 to 80% of all ICU beds is occupied
Going up to 87% during severe seasons
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...and-urgent-operations-cancelled-2019-20-data/


----------



## lane (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Yet another interesting stat from NHS UK
> According to it at any given time 75 to 80% of all ICU beds is occupied
> Going up to 87% during severe seasons
> https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...and-urgent-operations-cancelled-2019-20-data/



We have a lot more beds than "at any (other) given time"


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

What is the current nr?
Genuinely curious, if that also includes the staff to run this extra capacity


----------



## lane (9 Apr 2020)

They have brought back retired staff and army medics and are using students due to the emergency. Some of who will die.


----------



## vickster (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> What is the current nr?
> Genuinely curious, if that also includes the staff to run this extra capacity


What country are you in? What’s the situation there currently?


----------



## Stephenite (9 Apr 2020)

Some figures from Norway.

The first graph shows total number inpatients with covid-19.

The second graph shows total number inpatients with covid-19 on respirators.


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

Spain, hospitals in Madrid and Catalonia are overrun. In the Baleares it seems like it is fairly quiet


----------



## BoldonLad (9 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> In at 6am, been a spike in figures but I forgot to take a note, will post them tomorrow. No change apart from *all *staff now wearing eye protection when around *any *patients, as well as masks and gloves.
> 
> The vast majority of confirmed critical cases seem to be of two categories, elderly people (75+) who were likely on their way soonish, for one reason or another. Then middle aged cases, it's very sad but every one of these I have seen, male or female, has been obese.


Yes, figures quoted on BBC suggested that 70% of those who “progressed” to ventilator were clinically obese.


----------



## icowden (9 Apr 2020)

The modelling from Imperial last week was suggesting that patients without Ventilation occupy a general acute bed for approx 8 days. Those requiring acute support and ventillation are 3 days general acute, 10 days ITU then 6 days general acute. Currently NHS Informatics are trying to assess data from clinical systems to see if the reality matches the projection, and if not, how far out it is.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (9 Apr 2020)

*Mod Note:*
@Racing roadkill please do not post *fake news* like your post below.
News posts about the Covid19 emergency *must* contain links by reputable sources (not FB, nor tabloids), *must* be up to date because the situation is evolving rapidly, *must* be made with intent to inform.
Any posts diverting from these guidelines *will result in a thread ban.*
Thank you.
*Fake News example:*


Racing roadkill said:


> According to the people on the front line at several large hospitals the morgues and ICUs aren’t “overflowing” ( quite the opposite is true ) , in fact they are reporting that there’s no real need for the ‘Nightingale hospitals’ as things stand, as the flow of patients is not that severe at present ( which was the original primary idea of the lockdown measures) that is just about the worst bit of unjustified rubbish that’s been spouted on here so far. You have to remember that the ICU system is not a closed system, people go in, they recover ( or die ) they then come out of the unit, and that place is vacant again. It’s all about managing the flow / throughput ( or was until the handwringers managed to change the agenda).


----------



## lane (9 Apr 2020)

Manchester:

"Chief Constable Ian Hopkins said "each and every one of us need take this seriously".

There were 1,132 coronavirus-related breaches reported between Saturday and Tuesday, the force said.

That included 494 house parties - some with DJs, fireworks and bouncy castles - and 166 street parties."

I find this hard to believe but have copied it from the BBC news website.


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## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

icowden said:


> The modelling from Imperial last week was suggesting that patients without Ventilation occupy a general acute bed for approx 8 days. Those requiring acute support and ventillation are 3 days general acute, 10 days ITU then 6 days general acute. Currently NHS Informatics are trying to assess data from clinical systems to see if the reality matches the projection, and if not, how far out it is.



That would be more or less the case with my friend. He was really up against it at one stage - and ITU for around 10 days - now still needs oygen but out of ITU.


----------



## Racing roadkill (9 Apr 2020)

icowden said:


> This is possibly the source of the story:-
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/nightingale-emergency-coronavirus-hospital-london


That’s one that’s made it to the press, yes. I’ve spoken to actual people working in such places that confirm that this is more of a normal situation, not an exception.


----------



## Racing roadkill (9 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> As demonstrated by the arrival of the first handful of patients in the overflow Nightingale field hospital.


A handful, in a 1000 bed facility, and they were moved there to help the clowns in charge save face, not through necessity. That says it all.


----------



## Rocky (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> A handful, in a 1000 bed facility, and they were moved there to help the clowns in charge save face, not through necessity. That says it all.


Fake news and yet another conspiracy theory. It’s also pretty insulting to those of us who have friends, relatives working on the frontline.


----------



## Racing roadkill (9 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I work at a hospital - not frontline - the feedback I get is pretty much as above ICUs are full.
> 
> I know a 54 year old - who spent 10 days in ICU - with that sort of turn around - there obviously aren't going to be enough ICU beds
> 
> ...


That example ( the 54 year old ) is at the extreme end of the scale, not the norm, which is what the modelling works on. Indeed the modelling takes account of the extremes and makes allowances.


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> That example ( the 54 year old ) is at the extreme end of the scale, not the norm, which is what the modelling works on. Indeed the modelling takes account of the extremes and makes allowances.


So how long does a covid 19 patient - who needs an ICU bed - stay then ....per the modelling ?

Boris is now what ..day 3 in ICU ..


----------



## Yellow Fang (9 Apr 2020)

Don't know whether Aljazeera is considered as a more reliable source than Facebook or a tabloid, but this article says:

_Director-Generalof the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu has called such speculation part of an "infodemic" of fake news surrounding the coronavirus, while other public health officials said they belong with the slew of conspiracy theories claiming that the virus was engineered (all scientists who have studied the genome of the virus agree that would be impossible). 

But some scientists, both within China and elsewhere, say an accidental leak remains a possibility - insofar as there is no evidence to disprove it.

"There is nothing 'fake' about lab accidents," said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist and director at the Waksman Institute of Microbiology at Rutgers University in New Jersey, US. "There also is nothing 'conspiratorial' about lab accidents."_

and

_In mid-February, scientists from two of China's most prestigious polytechnics, including one in Wuhan, circulated a pre-print paper, one that has not undergone peer review, detailing accidents involving bats at the lab of the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). After being attacked and urinated on by the bats, a researcher quarantined himself for 14 days.

The CDC lab is located280 metres (919 feet) from the seafood market and across the street from the hospital that were the sites of the earliest clusters of COVID-19 cases. The authors made a circumstantial case for the virus "probably originate[ing] from a laboratory in Wuhan"._

and

_Yet, Shi and her American collaborators have shown that in a laboratory environment bat coronaviruses can jump directly to humans._


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Don't know whether Aljazeera is considered as a more reliable source than Facebook or a tabloid, but this article says:
> 
> _Director-Generalof the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu has called such speculation part of an "infodemic" of fake news surrounding the coronavirus, while other public health officials said they belong with the slew of conspiracy theories claiming that the virus was engineered (all scientists who have studied the genome of the virus agree that would be impossible).
> 
> ...



The conspiracy theory is that this was deliberately engineered in a Chinese lab, I think.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Apr 2020)

Johnson reported as "continuing to improve" but still in ICU.

Given that we were originally told he was only in ICU as a precaution rather than necessity, this, yet again, strains the bounds of credulity on his condition.

I hope he recovers well.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (9 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> _But some scientists, both within China and elsewhere, say an accidental leak remains a possibility - insofar as there is no evidence to disprove it._



Nah - this is standard deflection techniques taken straight from the Soviet, er, Russian playbook. When they shot down an airliner over Ukraine they flooded social media with "what if" scenarios. "What if" it was a terrorist bomb, "What if" it was pilot error, "What if" it was shot down by a Ukrainian bomber etc etc, all wasting official resources who have to spend time explaining how these examples are ridiculous. Same when they conducted a chemical weapons attack in Salisbury - "What if" it was American chemicals, "What if" the victims had accidentally come into contact with chemicals accidentally released from nearby Porton Down, "What if" the agents involved were just innocent tourists visiting the cathedral.


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Johnson reported as "continuing to improve" but still in ICU.
> 
> Given that we were originally told he was only in ICU as a precaution rather than necessity, this, yet again, strains the bounds of credulity on his condition.
> 
> I hope he recovers well.


Not a medical professional - but I thought you stay in ICU as long as needed. You can improve but still be il l enough to need ICU -


----------



## Johnno260 (9 Apr 2020)

My wife works in one of the newest and most modern hospitals in southern England, they have been taking C-19 patients for weeks now from London overflow. The wards there are now getting rather packed and PPE is running out.

As for the Nightingale even if they currently only have a few patients, you would rather they created zero extra capacity?

I would rather they had the extra beds, and never needed them, than the alternative.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Johnson reported as "continuing to improve" but still in ICU.
> 
> Given that we were originally told he was only in ICU as a precaution rather than necessity, this, yet again, strains the bounds of credulity on his condition.
> 
> I hope he recovers well.



Next he will (*not) *be playing Whiff Waff with the medics in the ICU. I wish they’d just leave it alone till he’s out of ICU. He is still clearly sick enough to require intensive care. So still very sick indeed.

There will be no rapid recovery from ICU. It’s not the way it works.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not a medical professional - but I thought you stay in ICU as long as needed. You can improve but still be il l enough to need ICU -



It was originally reported that he did not need to be in ICU - it was only a precaution in case of a deterioration. So it's not clear to me how he can improve for two consecutive days from that point yet still need to be there.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Apr 2020)

How much spacing when running or cycling?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/lif.../+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links


----------



## rualexander (9 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, figures quoted on BBC suggested that 70% of those who “progressed” to ventilator were clinically obese.


Link?

From the ICNARC report I linked to previously, around 74% of those requiring 'advanced respiratory support' (ventilation?), had a BMI above the 'normal' range. 
But, that's not far off the BMI percentage for the general population of the UK anyway, so there is not necessarily any direct correlation.

The male/female discrepancy is perhaps more significant.

Of those who have had an outcome from critical care the death rate is around 50%.

Of those with an outcome, the average stay in critical care is 4 days for those who survived, and 5 days for those who died.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (9 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> How much spacing when running or cycling?
> 
> https://www.theglobeandmail.com/lif.../+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links


The 2 metre rule should only be seen as guidance. You should keep the maximum distance possible in the situation. The risk of transmission decline with separation. It is not 100% at 199 cm and 0% at 201 cm.


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It was originally reported that he did not need to be in ICU - it was only a precaution in case of a deterioration. So it's not clear to me how he can improve for two consecutive days from that point yet still need to be there.


Correct - he detoriated so was then moved into intensive care. 
I would guess this is a pretty normal pathway for covid 19 patients....


----------



## PK99 (9 Apr 2020)

From an article in telegraph 9 April

*Singapore's enviable coronavirus response is a reminder of its miserable illiberalism* ANTONIA SYN 9 APRIL 2020 • 1:00PM

As an LSE student from Singapore, in the last few weeks I have experienced lockdown both UK and Singaporean-style.
In fact, I am writing this from a hotel room where, admittedly at government expense, I am being quarantined for a fortnight, before I can see my family.
*If I come into contact with someone who may have displayed some symptoms of coronavirus, I will instantly be confined again to home for another fortnight. I will need to respond each day to multiple text messages and calls, asking me to confirm my location using FaceTime, to show I’ve not left home.*
Testing is frequent and free, and the government generously pays hospital bills in full for all patients suspected of Covid-19.
Before returning to Singapore, when I was still in the UK, I was trusted to abide by the coronavirus guidelines, though. Here, it isn’t up to me.
International observers, including in Britain, have been impressed by the effectiveness of the Singaporean government’s response.
They haven’t always noticed that the harsh consequences for flouting the Stay-Home Notice (SHN), run to the extent of stripping citizens of their passports to punish misbehaviour.
*Singapore has quarantined 20,000 foreign workers, mainly men from South Asia who work in construction, in their dormitories for two weeks. These buildings, the Westlite Toh Guan and S11 at Punggol dormitories, are reportedly overcrowded and dirty. There are typically twelve workers per room, and they have complained of overflowing loos and cockroaches.*
......
.....
*Contact tracing is aggressively coordinated with the Ministry of Health, armed forces, and police all visiting people who may have crossed paths with people who have shown possible symptoms. People violating the Stay-Home Notices can receive jail terms up to six months, fines up to S$10,000 (£5,657), or both.*


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

Hehehe, still according to some Tories, it is a Haven on Earth  
On the other side I bet plenty of people wouldn't mind this kind of draconian measures in exchange for less CV19


----------



## marinyork (9 Apr 2020)

A reminder for those getting upset by what other people are up to, this was the modelling by the Imperial paper and a lot of people seem to think the UK's doing better than this.


----------



## Eziemnaik (9 Apr 2020)

In the parallel world of USA unemployment grows by 16M people in 3 weeks yet stock exchanges are rising, the mother of all bubbles is coming


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It was originally reported that he did not need to be in ICU - it was only a precaution in case of a deterioration. So it's not clear to me how he can improve for two consecutive days from that point yet still need to be there.


I would have thought it pretty straightforward. He has improved - but he still needs to improve further to be out of ICU - or they fear a relapse so are giving him an extra 24 hours or so in ICU....

Wots you're overall though process here ? - he is worse than they are telling us 

Or he doesn't need to be in ICU - but is choosing to stay there ?


----------



## BoldonLad (9 Apr 2020)

rualexander said:


> Link?
> 
> From the ICNARC report I linked to previously, around 74% of those requiring 'advanced respiratory support' (ventilation?), had a BMI above the 'normal' range.
> But, that's not far off the BMI percentage for the general population of the UK anyway, so there is not necessarily any direct correlation.
> ...


By BBC, I meant television, my IT skills are not up to linking to yesterdays TV screen.

I would agree that the general population, probably mirror the general population, in terms of obesity. Don't see that as cause for optimism, personally.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> stock exchanges are rising,


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I would have thought it pretty straightforward. He has improved - but he still needs to improve further to be out of ICU - or they fear a relapse so are giving him an extra 24 hours or so in ICU....
> 
> Wots you're overall though process here ? - he is worse than they are telling us
> 
> Or he doesn't need to be in ICU - but is choosing to stay there ?



The points I was trying to make were:

- originally saying he didn't really need to be in ICU, but had subsequently improved considerably for two days running isn't consistent with remaining in ICU

- this is of a piece with the updates since he fell ill, which have been overly optimistic throughout, and thereby destroy much needed trust in HMG

But TBH I don't really want to debate his health and now regret bringing it up at all, so I'll be silent on the subject from here on.


----------



## PK99 (9 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> View attachment 513743




Time to buy then!
😉


----------



## vickster (9 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Time to buy then!
> 😉


I've just set up new shares ISA for new tax year  (to replace the one I cashed in on the initial panic )


----------



## PK99 (9 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> I've just set up new shares ISA for new tax year  (to replace the one I cashed in on the initial panic )



Oops!


----------



## vickster (9 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Oops!


Markets still way below where they were (and I'd rather have more money in safe locations right now...not under the mattress )


----------



## AuroraSaab (9 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, figures quoted on BBC suggested that 70% of those who “progressed” to ventilator were clinically obese.


I think you would also need to consider that many obese 50 plus year olds may well have some level of undiagnosed heart disease, which may not necessarily be recorded as 'underlying illness' but which may affect their ability to recover.


----------



## vickster (9 Apr 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> I think you would also need to consider that many obese 50 plus year olds may well have some level of undiagnosed heart disease, which may not necessarily be recorded as 'underlying illness' but which may affect their ability to recover.


Or pre-diabetes


----------



## rualexander (9 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> ....Don't see that as cause for optimism, personally.



I didn't imply any optimism.


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The points I was trying to make were:
> 
> - originally saying he didn't really need to be in ICU, but had subsequently *improved considerably for two days running *isn't consistent with remaining in ICU
> 
> ...



I haven't seen a quote saying he has "improved considerably".

And I thought he was taken in hospital as a "precaution" - then moved to ICU as he "deteriorated".

I had friend in ICU for 10 days - for most of that time he was classed as improving or doing well - I really don't see why someone improving in ICU for 2 days in inconsistent - I would have thought it pretty normal TBH.


----------



## tom73 (9 Apr 2020)

Some are calling for churches to be opened for easter Sunday. 
Can't think of a better way to observe your religion than staying at home and saving lives.


----------



## MontyVeda (9 Apr 2020)

'some' is very vague


----------



## Julia9054 (9 Apr 2020)

Been practicing our infection control drill today.
Nat has started work at the Nightingale as a porter/cleaner. No patients in yet.
He cycles in his own clothes and changes into a uniform at work. Not having any experience of how this works, I was surprised that he brings his uniform home. He is putting it inside 2 plastic bags in his rucksack and tipping it straight into the washing machine by itself as soon as he gets home. Plastic bags straight into wheely bin. He strips off by the back door and his own clothes stay outside and then go in the washing machine when his uniform is done.
Straight upstairs without touching anything and straight into the shower.
Anybody with more experience than me think of any additional measures we could be doing?


----------



## MarkF (9 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, figures quoted on BBC suggested that 70% of those who “progressed” to ventilator were clinically obese.



I wouldn't be surprised if that % was the same in normal times.

PPE problems today, largely self inflicted and entirely predictable. Here are the figures from Wednesday.

Tested positive - 212
Rested negative - 755
Currently in hospital - 90
Discharged home - 59
Patients in ICU - 12
Deaths - 25


----------



## nickyboy (9 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Been practicing our infection control drill today.
> Nat has started work at the Nightingale as a porter/cleaner. No patients in yet.
> He cycles in his own clothes and changes into a uniform at work. Not having any experience of how this works, I was surprised that he brings his uniform home. He is putting it inside 2 plastic bags in his rucksack and tipping it straight into the washing machine by itself as soon as he gets home. Plastic bags straight into wheely bin. He strips off by the back door and his own clothes stay outside and then go in the washing machine when his uniform is done.
> Straight upstairs without touching anything and straight into the shower.
> Anybody with more experience than me think of any additional measures we could be doing?


Is there any risk of transfer onto the bike handlebars? Might be worthwhile wiping them with alcohol wipes. Just a thought


----------



## Julia9054 (9 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Is there any risk of transfer onto the bike handlebars? Might be worthwhile wiping them with alcohol wipes. Just a thought


Good point. Will add that to the regime


----------



## Cuchilo (9 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Been practicing our infection control drill today.
> Nat has started work at the Nightingale as a porter/cleaner. No patients in yet.
> He cycles in his own clothes and changes into a uniform at work. Not having any experience of how this works, I was surprised that he brings his uniform home. He is putting it inside 2 plastic bags in his rucksack and tipping it straight into the washing machine by itself as soon as he gets home. Plastic bags straight into wheely bin. He strips off by the back door and his own clothes stay outside and then go in the washing machine when his uniform is done.
> Straight upstairs without touching anything and straight into the shower.
> Anybody with more experience than me think of any additional measures we could be doing?


Change the locks


----------



## tom73 (9 Apr 2020)

Bypass the plastic bag and need to tip it into the washing machine.
Use a pillow case or one of them reusable cotton bags.
Then all you do is put the whole lot in machine so he only handles/ cut risk of handling down to one ie when he puts them in the bag.


----------



## BoldonLad (9 Apr 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> I think you would also need to consider that many obese 50 plus year olds may well have some level of undiagnosed heart disease, which may not necessarily be recorded as 'underlying illness' but which may affect their ability to recover.


Quite


----------



## fossyant (9 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Been practicing our infection control drill today.
> Nat has started work at the Nightingale as a porter/cleaner. No patients in yet.
> He cycles in his own clothes and changes into a uniform at work. Not having any experience of how this works, I was surprised that he brings his uniform home. He is putting it inside 2 plastic bags in his rucksack and tipping it straight into the washing machine by itself as soon as he gets home. Plastic bags straight into wheely bin. He strips off by the back door and his own clothes stay outside and then go in the washing machine when his uniform is done.
> Straight upstairs without touching anything and straight into the shower.
> Anybody with more experience than me think of any additional measures we could be doing?



My wife has been making kit bags, so those working in hospitals can take off uniforms before they get home, and the bag and kit goes into the wash (in the bag). The bags are fabric. Their local sewing group have been in touch with a few hospitals.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (9 Apr 2020)

Boris out of intensive care.
Source: Sky news phone app.


----------



## icowden (9 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I haven't seen a quote saying he has "improved considerably".
> 
> And I thought he was taken in hospital as a "precaution" - then moved to ICU as he "deteriorated".
> 
> I had friend in ICU for 10 days - for most of that time he was classed as improving or doing well - I really don't see why someone improving in ICU for 2 days in inconsistent - I would have thought it pretty normal TBH.



Most hospitals will be following the model from Imperial. So he would have been admitted to a General Acute bed. General length of stay here is 3 days. On deterioration he would be moved to ICU and onto a ventilator or CPAP dependent on condition and need. Length of stay in ICU is up to 10 days. Those that get better then spend up to 6 days back in a General Acute bed until discharge. This is the projected modelling from data drawn from other countries largely. 

There is a modelling exercise going on now to look at how closely our admissions and discharges follow this model. It may surprise you to know that this is harder than you might think as hospitals still use a lot of paper...


----------



## tom73 (9 Apr 2020)

fossyant said:


> My wife has been making kit bags, so those working in hospitals can take off uniforms before they get home, and the bag and kit goes into the wash (in the bag). The bags are fabric. Their local sewing group have been in touch with a few hospitals.


I've been trying to source one but nothing going round here.


----------



## fossyant (9 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> I've been trying to source one but nothing going round here.



Shall I ask the 'boss' to make another ? We could post it - might take a few days in the post ? PM me.


----------



## MarkF (9 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Been practicing our infection control drill today.
> Nat has started work at the Nightingale as a porter/cleaner. No patients in yet.
> He cycles in his own clothes and changes into a uniform at work. Not having any experience of how this works, I was surprised that he brings his uniform home. He is putting it inside 2 plastic bags in his rucksack and tipping it straight into the washing machine by itself as soon as he gets home. Plastic bags straight into wheely bin. He strips off by the back door and his own clothes stay outside and then go in the washing machine when his uniform is done.
> Straight upstairs without touching anything and straight into the shower.
> Anybody with more experience than me think of any additional measures we could be doing?


 Won't they let him wear scrubs? A lot of our facilities staff do, it's just not viable for some to wash what might be their only uniform every night.


----------



## Buck (9 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Been practicing our infection control drill today.
> Nat has started work at the Nightingale as a porter/cleaner. No patients in yet.
> He cycles in his own clothes and changes into a uniform at work. Not having any experience of how this works, I was surprised that he brings his uniform home. He is putting it inside 2 plastic bags in his rucksack and tipping it straight into the washing machine by itself as soon as he gets home. Plastic bags straight into wheely bin. He strips off by the back door and his own clothes stay outside and then go in the washing machine when his uniform is done.
> Straight upstairs without touching anything and straight into the shower.
> Anybody with more experience than me think of any additional measures we could be doing?



We’ve got something similar with our PPE at work Julia. Double bagging then in sealed containers in cars. 
only extra is to use disposable gloves when handling his clothes plus (I’m sure he is anyways) lots of hand washing at each stage. 
Might be helpful as well to preload the washing machine with detergent for him - just one less touch point.

ps is his rucksack washable. Might be worth doing if it is or at least leave outside.


----------



## winjim (9 Apr 2020)

fossyant said:


> My wife has been making kit bags, so those working in hospitals can take off uniforms before they get home, and the bag and kit goes into the wash (in the bag). The bags are fabric. Their local sewing group have been in touch with a few hospitals.


There's a few people round our way doing that. Asking for donations of fabric, laces etc.


----------



## Buck (9 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Won't they let him wear scrubs? A lot of our facilities staff do, it's just not viable for some to wash what might be their only uniform every night.



we’ve managed to get scrubs in general practice Mark but only one set each so it’s a daily wash and dry. Not ideal but better than no scrubs for the front liners.


----------



## fossyant (9 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> There's a few people round our way doing that. Asking for donations of fabric, laces etc.



My wife's been using spare 'stash' - our loft is full of fabric. She's put a fair amount of effort into each - i.e. they are all really nice. 10 done so far.


----------



## winjim (9 Apr 2020)

No scrubs for me, but I'll be treating my regular clothes and my lab coat with a bit more TLC.


----------



## PK99 (9 Apr 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Boris out of intensive care.
> Source: Sky news phone app.



Thank you for sourcing.


----------



## Julia9054 (9 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Won't they let him wear scrubs? A lot of our facilities staff do, it's just not viable for some to wash what might be their only uniform every night.


Not sure I know what scrubs actually are? He has been issued with 3 shirts and 2 pairs of trousers.
Pillow case idea sounds good.
Rucksack can live in the garage


----------



## winjim (9 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Not sure I know what scrubs actually are?


They're also known as a buster.


----------



## fossyant (9 Apr 2020)

Mrs F offered one of the bags to a friend's daughter, but she is on ITU, so those clothes aren't coming home to wash - full decontamination.


----------



## Julia9054 (9 Apr 2020)

Funny story from Nat from today. The Nightingale hospital has been converted from Harrogate conference centre. 3 intensive care nurses from LGI have been doing training with the new porters and domestics.
They couldn't find the lights in the auditorium for their lecture. 
Nat's actual job is a professional musician. He has performed at the conference centre many times and knows it well.
He ended up working the lighting desk for them!


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

icowden said:


> Most hospitals will be following the model from Imperial. So he would have been admitted to a General Acute bed. General length of stay here is 3 days. On deterioration he would be moved to ICU and onto a ventilator or CPAP dependent on condition and need. Length of stay in ICU is up to 10 days. Those that get better then spend up to 6 days back in a General Acute bed until discharge. This is the projected modelling from data drawn from other countries largely.
> 
> There is a modelling exercise going on now to look at how closely our admissions and discharges follow this model. It may surprise you to know that this is harder than you might think as hospitals still use a lot of paper...


I


icowden said:


> Most hospitals will be following the model from Imperial. So he would have been admitted to a General Acute bed. General length of stay here is 3 days. On deterioration he would be moved to ICU and onto a ventilator or CPAP dependent on condition and need. Length of stay in ICU is up to 10 days. Those that get better then spend up to 6 days back in a General Acute bed until discharge. This is the projected modelling from data drawn from other countries largely.
> 
> There is a modelling exercise going on now to look at how closely our admissions and discharges follow this model. It may surprise you to know that this is harder than you might think as hospitals still use a lot of paper...



Why would it surprise me ?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Apr 2020)

Interesting investigation of the virus spread in Germany

https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/ho...ers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> I've been trying to source one but nothing going round here.



The Decathlon £1.99 rucksacks would do the job if you have a store near you. They seem to be based in Asda.

Larger stuff sacks or tent bags used in hiking would probably also do the job.


----------



## Unkraut (9 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Interesting investigation of the virus spread in Germany


Prof Streeck is going to be on Marcus Lanz again tonight, so will interesting to see if any new information on the virus has come to light.

I found his findings so far a bit of a relief in that you are most unlikely to get infected or to infect someone else simply by going shopping at the local supermarket.

Another guest on the show will be arguing the amount of panic being engendered regarding the virus is exaggerated.


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The Decathlon £1.99 rucksacks would do the job if you have a store near you. They seem to be based in Asda.
> 
> Larger stuff sacks or tent bags used in hiking would probably also do the job.


I thought decathlon was shut ?


----------



## kingrollo (9 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Interesting investigation of the virus spread in Germany
> 
> https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/ho...ers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot


That's interesting . I often wondered the effect of all the handwashing. Would it be reasonable to conclude that airborne is the main method of transmission?

Also a report on exercise suggest that 2m isn't enough distance when exercising. If you are in someone s slipstream and they sneeze - you're getting that ! - they suggest a gap of 20m for cyclists. I ride solo anyway but in my none expert opinion that makes sense.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I thought decathlon was shut ?



Is Asda shut, that’s your answer.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (9 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Straight upstairs without touching anything and straight into the shower.
> Anybody with more experience than me think of any additional measures we could be doing?



Could you just jetwash him outside the back door?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (9 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Could you just jetwash him outside the back door?



Sheepdip and a trough


----------



## glasgowcyclist (9 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Sheepdip and a trough



Luxury!


----------



## Wobblers (9 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Well the intermediary species probably was not Pangolins. They were not on the list of species sold at the sea market, the first know case had no connection to the market, and at least one paper has concluded it wasn't them.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-come-from-was-it-really-wuhans-animal-market
> https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25731
> ...



Yes, Wuhan Seafood Market was an early focus of transmission, but there really is little else to link it to the start of the pandemic. As I said before, we haven't tracked down patient zero yet and without that we have no idea about who first got infected, when they got infected and where they got infected - as well as what they were doing to get infected. That's a major problem, because without that we simply can't say anything meaningful - there isn't even enough to speculate!

I wouldn't read anything into China sending biological experts to Wuhan. These are people who understand better than anyone else transmission routes, and their expertise is invaluable in such an outbreak. Thisis not something that's limited to China: the US calls on the biological warfare experts at US Army Medicine Institute of Infectious Diseases (such as the outbreak of ebola Reston in 1989) and the UK calls on Porton Down. 

I do hope we get some answers to the origins of SARS-CoV-2. But China is a very secretive country still, and the soured relations with the West thanks to Trump's posturing do not help. We may never know for sure.


----------



## Wobblers (9 Apr 2020)

Racing roadkill said:


> Nonsense. The only reason our ‘trajectory’ looks like that graph, is because our people don’t seem to be able to decide how to count. Every time the existing numbers, collected in the agreed way, at the time, look more promising, the way in which the numbers are worked out changes. New cases are included, from sources which really don’t bear relation to the originally agreed way, which was primarily to try and feed data into the algorithm used to predict flows of people who were reaching hospitals ( and more importantly) getting to the stage of needing critical care / ventilators. That’s gone clean out of the window now, and the numbers are being added to, by cases which would have little / no effect on the important ‘flow rate’ in order to justify the situation we find ourselves in now, by keeping the ‘perceived fear factor’ high.



This is the best data we have. Your argument against merely amounts to paranoid ravings. Claiming it's all $CONSPIRACY_THEORY is all very well - but you have to come up with facts, not disjointed allegations (and that's being charitable, you're not even making any sort of logical sense). So prove it.


----------



## Johnno260 (9 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Also a report on exercise suggest that 2m isn't enough distance when exercising. If you are in someone s slipstream and they sneeze - you're getting that ! - they suggest a gap of 20m for cyclists. I ride solo anyway but in my none expert opinion that makes sense.



since all this kicked off I give everyone a wide berth anyway, if I see pedestrians on the pavement I move right over into the road.

A boy racer didn’t like me doing this and stopped to have a go, the old dear on the pavement destroyed the kid before I even uttered a word it was a thing of beauty haha

Other cyclists the same, If I overtake I wait for ages before pulling back across, and if someone goes past me I slow right down and allow the gap to open up.


----------



## PK99 (9 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> This is the best data we have. Your argument against merely amounts to paranoid ravings. Claiming it's all $CONSPIRACY_THEORY is all very well - but you have to come up with facts, not disjointed allegations (and that's being charitable, you're not even making any sort of logical sense). So prove it.



I'm tempted to plead with the mods to ban RacingRoadKill, but on reflection think that letting loose into the real world such a malignant virus would be a bad idea - better to keep it contained here where its harm is minimized.


----------



## Rusty Nails (9 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> This is the best data we have. Your argument against merely amounts to paranoid ravings. Claiming it's all $CONSPIRACY_THEORY is all very well - but you have to come up with facts, not disjointed allegations (and that's being charitable, you're not even making any sort of logical sense). So prove it.



He's had one post deleted already today because of its absurdity. It's an obsession that hopefully he will grow out of.


----------



## PK99 (9 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> since all this kicked off I give everyone a wide berth anyway, if I see pedestrians on the pavement I move right over into the road.
> 
> A boy racer didn’t like me doing this and stopped to have a go, the old dear on the pavement destroyed the kid before I even uttered a word it was a thing of beauty haha
> 
> Other cyclists the same, If I overtake I wait for ages before pulling back across, and if someone goes past me I slow right down and allow the gap to open up.



After having problems with cyclists and runners passing on the pavement, from behind and FAR FAR to close and being ignored when complaining, I AM going to take to carrying a hefty walking stick which I intend to stick out horizontally on occasion - if anyone hits it they are passing too close and it is their problem, not mine


----------



## Rusty Nails (9 Apr 2020)

Roger Longbottom said:


> Sorry if this has previously been mentioned but I ain't reading through 7k of posts.
> I wish the media, the authorities, the government etc would just call it one thing or the other, one minute it's Corona Virus, the next Cofid 19.
> Why can't they just call it one name and stick to it.


Or even Covid-19


----------



## BrumJim (9 Apr 2020)

Roger Longbottom said:


> Sorry if this has previously been mentioned but I ain't reading through 7k of posts.
> I wish the media, the authorities, the government etc would just call it one thing or the other, one minute it's Corona Virus, the next Cofid 19.
> Why can't they just call it one name and stick to it.


Even more confusingly:
The virus is actually called SARS-CoV-2. It is a type of Coronavirus of which there are many causing anything from a common cold to the sort of thing that can easily kill. When this virus arrived, it didn't have a name as it was a new type that hasn't been seen before. So firstly they named the illness after the year in which it first appeared, hence COVID-19. The virus is called SARS-CoV as it is a coronavirus similar genetically to SARS. 2, I guess, as the sequel.
So SARS-CoV-2, named in February this year, causes COVID-19, the illness.
WHO would know such a thing.


----------



## mjr (9 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Or even Covid-19


Better to use its purchaser's name for it: covfefe


----------



## mjr (9 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> How much spacing when running or cycling?
> 
> https://www.theglobeandmail.com/lif.../+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links


Article gets Paris exercise ban time wrong: treat with caution.


----------



## Unkraut (10 Apr 2020)

Not much new from Prof Streeck tonight. What was interesting was a pathologist from Hamburg who is the only one in the country to do autopsies to establish the cause of death in patients tested positive with corona. He found that not one of them had died from the virus, in all cases existing conditions had led to their death. In the debate about dying of or dying with the disease in all cases it is dying with in his experience. He also reckoned that when the annual statistics come to be done for the whole year there will not be any discernible increase in the average number of deaths. In all likelihood all those who will have died with the disease would have done so anyway within a reasonable period of time.

He was in no sense saying the containment measures were not necessary, hospital capacity needs to be protected, but that far too much unnecessary fear of corona has been spread among the general population for whom those who are younger and more healthy have little to fear.


----------



## PK99 (10 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Not much new from Prof Streeck tonight. What was interesting was a pathologist from Hamburg who is the only one in the country to do autopsies to establish the cause of death in patients tested positive with corona. He found that not one of them had died from the virus, in all cases existing conditions had led to their death. In the debate about dying of or dying with the disease in all cases it is dying with in his experience. He also reckoned that when the annual statistics come to be done for the whole year there will not be any discernible increase in the average number of deaths. In all likelihood all those who will have died with the disease would have done so anyway within a reasonable period of time.
> 
> He was in no sense saying the containment measures were not necessary, hospital capacity needs to be protected, but that far too much unnecessary fear of corona has been spread among the general population for whom those who are younger and more healthy have little to fear.



Interesting post.

From the outset that has been my interpretation - as with prostate cancer, more people die with than of - weeks ago (it seems) I referenced here a report suggesting that the outcome, in term of excess deaths over the year, would be much smaller that initial fears suggested. Essentially, at the level of the individual, compressing the risk of death in the next 12 months into the next two months.

The issue was, and remains, at the population level controlling infection RATE to avoid overloading health services


----------



## MarkF (10 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Not much new from Prof Streeck tonight. What was interesting was a pathologist from Hamburg who is the only one in the country to do autopsies to establish the cause of death in patients tested positive with corona. He found that not one of them had died from the virus, in all cases existing conditions had led to their death. In the debate about dying of or dying with the disease in all cases it is dying with in his experience. He also reckoned that when the annual statistics come to be done for the whole year there will not be any discernible increase in the average number of deaths. In all likelihood all those who will have died with the disease would have done so anyway within a reasonable period of time.
> 
> He was in no sense saying the containment measures were not necessary, hospital capacity needs to be protected, but that far too much unnecessary fear of corona has been spread among the general population for whom those who are younger and more healthy have little to fear.



There is a dread and morbid fear of the virus that provokes irrational behaviour, so that the vast majority kicking off and demanding an ambulance to hospital, don't have the virus.

I don't know if any medical people on here could shed any light but I have seen an A4 file passing between our medics that I am forbidden to view. It's called "The Cornomoaner Files".


----------



## Yellow Fang (10 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Not much new from Prof Streeck tonight. What was interesting was a pathologist from Hamburg who is the only one in the country to do autopsies to establish the cause of death in patients tested positive with corona. He found that not one of them had died from the virus, in all cases existing conditions had led to their death. In the debate about dying of or dying with the disease in all cases it is dying with in his experience. He also reckoned that when the annual statistics come to be done for the whole year there will not be any discernible increase in the average number of deaths. In all likelihood all those who will have died with the disease would have done so anyway within a reasonable period of time.
> 
> He was in no sense saying the containment measures were not necessary, hospital capacity needs to be protected, but that far too much unnecessary fear of corona has been spread among the general population for whom those who are younger and more healthy have little to fear.



Peter Hitchens has been saying that, like prostate cancer, people have been dying with the disease, not because of it.

Most victims are already elderly or have other health conditions. If they could on average be expected to live another five years then crashing the economy would be worth it. If it's only six months then it's probably not, but still it would be terrible to see the health services completely overwhelmed, with elderly patients dying in corridors and makeshift wards with next to no medical treatment. The government would certainly receive a lot of criticism for it.

The disease seems to be more deadly if you get a high initial dose. The Chinese doctor who was punished for whistle blowing died of the disease and he was quite young.


----------



## DaveReading (10 Apr 2020)

BrumJim said:


> So SARS-CoV-2, named in February this year, causes COVID-19, the illness.



And of course COVID-19 is simply shorthand for CO[rona]VI[rus]D[isease]-[20]19.


----------



## kingrollo (10 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Not much new from Prof Streeck tonight. What was interesting was a pathologist from Hamburg who is the only one in the country to do autopsies to establish the cause of death in patients tested positive with corona. He found that not one of them had died from the virus, in all cases existing conditions had led to their death. In the debate about dying of or dying with the disease in all cases it is dying with in his experience. He also reckoned that when the annual statistics come to be done for the whole year there will not be any discernible increase in the average number of deaths. In all likelihood all those who will have died with the disease would have done so anyway within a reasonable period of time.
> 
> He was in no sense saying the containment measures were not necessary, hospital capacity needs to be protected, but that far too much unnecessary fear of corona has been spread among the general population for whom those who are younger and more healthy have little to fear.


Thing is I have asthma - but it impacts on my life not one jot (apart from puffing 3 inhalers each morning).
I would consider myself a healthy 56 year old - yet I am in a high risk group for CV. Would the prof you mention consider my asthma is going to kill me anyway ? - it doesn't feel like a life threating illness.


----------



## DaveReading (10 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Thing is I have asthma - but it impacts on my life not one jot (apart from puffing 3 inhalers each morning).
> I would consider myself a healthy 56 year old - yet I am in a high risk group for CV.



The advice is that mild, managed asthma does not put you at any greater risk than a non-sufferer.


----------



## fossyant (10 Apr 2020)

My son is so called 'high risk' as he is Type 1, but young, slim and fit. I do wish stats would stop classifying diabetes together, as it's not the same disease. T1 is caused by an autoimmune disease that kills off the pancreas, type 2 is very much age, diet, weight related that develops insulin resistance. It would be useful to know how many are obese T2's, as both those are factors. 

We aren't seeing any count of deaths in care homes, only the occasional figure reporting around a fith of resident's have died in a particular home. It's worrying for those of us with relatives in care homes, especilly ones that will die if they get this. It's like a ticking time bomb.


----------



## marinyork (10 Apr 2020)

fossyant said:


> We aren't seeing any count of deaths in care homes, only the occasional figure reporting around a fith of resident's have died in a particular home. It's worrying for those of us with relatives in care homes, especilly ones that will die if they get this. It's like a ticking time bomb.



I believe france keeps a tally for care homes.

There were some estimates yesterday www.guardian.co.uk/world/2020/apr/09/covid-19-hundreds-of-uk-care-home-deaths-not-added-to-official-toll


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## kingrollo (10 Apr 2020)

DaveReading said:


> The advice is that mild, managed asthma does not put you at any greater risk than a non-sufferer.


Yes - but to manage my asthma - amongst others I use a tiotrpuim inhaler. Which does classify me as high risk - per asthma UK and my GP.


----------



## bitsandbobs (10 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> How much spacing when running or cycling?
> 
> https://www.theglobeandmail.com/lif.../+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links



This is all based on one interview given by a Dutch academic to a Belgian newspaper. There is no study publication as yet, peer-reviewed or otherwise. Treat with a hefty dose of scepticism.

https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/...spreading-coronavirus-is-not-actually-a-study


----------



## tom73 (10 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> There is a dread and morbid fear of the virus that provokes irrational behaviour, so that the vast majority kicking off and demanding an ambulance to hospital, don't have the virus.
> 
> I don't know if any medical people on here could shed any light but I have seen an A4 file passing between our medics that I am forbidden to view. It's called "The Cornomoaner Files".



They may demand an ambulance but won't get one. Patient pathways have been changed along with admission protocols even an ECA can now refuse to transport to hospital. Which they normally don't have the protocol to do.


----------



## kingrollo (10 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> They may demand an ambulance but won't get one. Patient pathways have been changed along with admission protocols even an ECA can now refuse to transport to hospital. Which they normally don't have the protocol to do.


What is the process for an admission? - presumably someone with clinical knowledge deems you I'll enough to be admitted 

Who is that person ?

Do you then make you own way to hospital - or is it ambulance ?


----------



## Blue Hills (10 Apr 2020)

I"m no doc or scientist, but this might just be hopeful (yes i know 60,000 is a lot of tragedies)
From the beeb quoting a respected i think figure, ie not his grandstanding nutjob boss.

@@@@@
Dr Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told NBC News' Today show on Thursday the final number of Americans who will die from Covid-19 in the outbreak "looks more like 60,000".

In late March, Dr Fauci estimated "between 100,000 and 200,000" could die.

The 60,000 projection would match the upper estimate for total flu deaths in the US between October 2019 to March 2020, according to government data.

@@@@


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## Venod (10 Apr 2020)

Social distancing rarnd ere.


----------



## Pale Rider (10 Apr 2020)

I wonder if lock down works in one way but may not ultimately work in another.

We've proved it flattens the level of demand at a given moment.

But will it reduce the total overall number of infections?


----------



## Rezillo (10 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Peter Hitchens has been saying that, like prostate cancer, people have been dying with the disease, not because of it.
> 
> Most victims are already elderly or have other health conditions. If they could on average be expected to live another five years then crashing the economy would be worth it. If it's only six months then it's probably not, but still it would be terrible to see the health services completely overwhelmed, with elderly patients dying in corridors and makeshift wards with next to no medical treatment. The government would certainly receive a lot of criticism for it.
> 
> ...


Normally, the BBC does a reasonable job in presenting stats but that's a rather odd way of expressing the data to the general public. At first glance, one would look at that and think that shows more deaths in the 80+ age group and that a minority of deaths had no underlying health condition.

That's not the case though. Each age group gets smaller in number as age increases so the number of people in the 80+ age group is much smaller than the 70 to 79 group and so on. The higher case fatality ratio in the 80+ age group amounts to a smaller number of deaths than in the 70 - 79 age group because they are a higher percentage of a smaller total of people.

The figures appear to come from this study:

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

208 deaths in the 80+ category, 312 deaths in 70-79 years, 309 deaths in 60-69 years and 130 deaths in 50-59 years. So, many more deaths in the 60-69 category, despite a lower case fatality ratio. 

The reason why this is significant is because when it comes to co-morbid coditions, such as diabetes and hypertension, these are controllable conditions for many people. Someone in their 60s could expect another decade or two of life. They would not expect to be struck down now by bi-lateral pneumonia and respiratory failure.

Much the same goes for co-morbidity, whose stats are also in that report, albeit for a sub-section of 21,000 patients and 504 deaths, A 0.9% case fatality ratio for having no co-morbid condition actually equates to 33.8% of deaths having no co-morbid condition.

Peter Hitchens is a disgrace.


----------



## kingrollo (10 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I wonder if lock down works in one way but may not ultimately work in another.
> 
> We've proved it flattens the level of demand at a given moment.
> 
> But will it reduce the total overall number of infections?



Probably not - but it buys time - hopefully better treatments will come on line - and everyone who needs it gets access to a hospital bed - and the time are buying is time that can be spent on a vaccine.


----------



## lane (10 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yes - but to manage my asthma - amongst others I use a tiotrpuim inhaler. Which does classify me as high risk - per asthma UK and my GP.



I fall into that category but as I have a flu jab I come into the same group as over 70s which means I should be "particularly stringent" with social distancing. That doesn't mean I can't go out at all which is the case for the most at risk people. Am I at higher risk? None of us knows as far as I can see it's a bit of a lottery.


----------



## lane (10 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I wonder if lock down works in one way but may not ultimately work in another.
> 
> We've proved it flattens the level of demand at a given moment.
> 
> But will it reduce the total overall number of infections?



It all depends what happens afterwards - which is a bit of a statement of the obvious but, if they find better ways of managing it with more testing and targeted restrictions and ultimately a vaccine if might be possible to reduce the number of infections overtime compared with what happens with no lockdown. We will probably move to much more targeted restrictions once the lockdown ends and these will probably be in place for a long time.


----------



## tom73 (10 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What is the process for an admission? - presumably someone with clinical knowledge deems you I'll enough to be admitted
> 
> Who is that person ?
> 
> Do you then make you own way to hospital - or is it ambulance ?



If you need to go that is still happening. Ambo's on the whole work to set protocols if person has A do B. 
Even if a person will end up at Z a Dr or Nurse can go from A to Z in one go. 
What they've done is opened them up a bit for the minor stuff and the discharge pathway. 
One example from a few days ago. 
A ECA friend of mine got called to woman with a pain in her leg. 
So they went though the normally basic stuff ect, ect 
1st Q have you taken any pain killers? 
woman.... No
Mate .... So you've a pain in leg and not taken anything for it ?
woman.... No
Mate gives her two paracetamol waits with her for 20 mins 
Mate..... How's your leg?
woman.... A lot better now 
They give her advice and leave. 
Normally they'd have to take her in. 
They can demand all they want but won't get taken in they now have the right to refuse. 
It's not open session to refuse though they still have to work within set protocols. It's freeing up crew time in ways that are long over due. 
Neither has it taken away a Paramedics requirement to act in line with being a registered HCP. 
If none para crew need's more advice as always they contact control and speak to the Nurse or para on duty. 

Given that your now looking at a 2 hour turn around time to deep clean a vehicle. 
Every time you take someone in covid or not. Even if stop one simple time waste call per shift, per vehicle ect. The savings are massive.


----------



## kingrollo (10 Apr 2020)

Everyone is being really nice to each other this morning ??????
Is that a symptom ? - are we all infected !!!?


----------



## mjr (10 Apr 2020)

News from rtbf in Belgium: again more leave hospital than enter, volunteers instead of army into care homes, masks found with fake certificates (pic), sports halls as improvised morgues (pic), hospital staff protesting underfunding and against current health minister (pic), fines for spitting (pic) and up to two years jail if it hits anyone, skin problems claimed to be symptom but dermatologue points out it could be due to extra washing, adaptation of child health visits, worries about lockdown breaches over Easter, contact tracing in USA shows one man resulted in 35 known infections, ceasefire in Yemen, record April temperatures, gîtes for healthcare workers, MOTs continue by appointment, continuing postponements of sports.


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## MrGrumpy (10 Apr 2020)

Think someone may have been infected with the banned virus


----------



## Buck (10 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> I wonder if lock down works in one way but may not ultimately work in another.
> 
> We've proved it flattens the level of demand at a given moment.
> 
> But will it reduce the total overall number of infections?



It may do, but the briefings all talked about using the restrictions to reduce the peak to within the capacity of the health system. 

I’m sure that what we will see is a longer and slower incidence of the disease but that overall infections will not necessarily be lower but, hopefully deaths will be much lower as we will have the capacity to treat those most in need.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (10 Apr 2020)

Cambridgeshire Police getting a pounding on Twitter for their self-confessed over-exuberance:


View: https://twitter.com/CambridgeCops/status/1248546787394293760


----------



## SpokeyDokey (10 Apr 2020)

Social Media clamping down on untruths, rumours and misinformation:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-52149568


----------



## Buck (10 Apr 2020)

Google have published their latest set of data tracking showing movement of people (based on mobile phone data)

UK info here:-
https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-05_GB_Mobility_Report_en.pdf


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 Apr 2020)

This just appeared on the Guardian live feed:
​​NHS England has announced 866 new deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 8,114.​
Of the 866 new deaths announced today, 117 occurred on 9 April while 720 took place between 1 April and 8 April.​
The remaining 29 deaths occurred in March, including one on March 5.​​Ok, it's England only, so there will be Scotland and Wales to come. (NI reports 10 deaths). However, the big 866 figure hides the fact that yesterday's (i.e. 9 April) death toll was significantly lower at 117, or 127 less Scotland and Wales. Is there strategic misreporting of the death figures to hide any flattening of the curve that might be happening now? There's just too much of a discrepancy between the two figures (117 / 866) for me to believe it's simply a matter of reporting delays.


----------



## BoldonLad (10 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> This just appeared on the Guardian live feed:
> ​​NHS England has announced 866 new deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 8,114.​
> Of the 866 new deaths announced today, 117 occurred on 9 April while 720 took place between 1 April and 8 April.​
> The remaining 29 deaths occurred in March, including one on March 5.​​Ok, it's England only, so there will be Scotland and Wales to come. (NI reports 10 deaths). However, the big 866 figure hides the fact that yesterday's (i.e. 9 March) death toll was significantly lower at 117, or 127 less Scotland and Wales. Is there strategic misreporting of the death figures to hide any flattening of the curve that might be happening now? There's just too much of a discrepancy between the two figures (117 / 866) for me to believe it's simply a matter of reporting delays.


Think you may have a typo in there, shouldn’t “yesterday” be 9th April not 9th March?

if you are right, what are all of the worriers and doom mongers going to post about?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Think you may have a typo in there, shouldn’t “yesterday” be 9th April not 9th March?
> 
> if you are right, what are all of the worriers and doom mongers going to post about?


You're right, my error, I'll edit it.


----------



## slowmotion (10 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Think you may have a typo in there, shouldn’t “yesterday” be 9th April not 9th March?
> 
> if you are right, what are all of the worriers and doom mongers going to post about?


I'm sure they'll find something.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (10 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> This just appeared on the Guardian live feed:
> ​​NHS England has announced 866 new deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 8,114.​
> Of the 866 new deaths announced today, 117 occurred on 9 April while 720 took place between 1 April and 8 April.​
> The remaining 29 deaths occurred in March, including one on March 5.​​Ok, it's England only, so there will be Scotland and Wales to come. (NI reports 10 deaths). However, the big 866 figure hides the fact that yesterday's (i.e. 9 April) death toll was significantly lower at 117, or 127 less Scotland and Wales. Is there strategic misreporting of the death figures to hide any flattening of the curve that might be happening now? There's just too much of a discrepancy between the two figures (117 / 866) for me to believe it's simply a matter of reporting delays.



Well, if the next few days come in as low as yesterday's actual then that would be a massive step forward. Let's wait and see before we get too hopeful...


----------



## delb0y (10 Apr 2020)

Want some doom-mongery? How about the report from Korea that folks that had it and were thought clear are now testing positive again? It'll certainly throw a spanner in the works if it turns out that catching it and recovering from it doesn't give you any notable immunity. On a positive note, I'm genuinely enjoying reading The Stand again.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (10 Apr 2020)

delb0y said:


> Want some doom-mongery? How about the report from Korea that folks that had it and were thought clear are now testing positive again? It'll certainly throw a spanner in the works if it turns out that catching it and recovering from it doesn't give you any notable immunity. On a positive note, I'm genuinely enjoying reading The Stand again.



Could you provide a link to the Korean report please?


----------



## kingrollo (10 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> This just appeared on the Guardian live feed:
> ​​NHS England has announced 866 new deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 8,114.​
> Of the 866 new deaths announced today, 117 occurred on 9 April while 720 took place between 1 April and 8 April.​
> The remaining 29 deaths occurred in March, including one on March 5.​​Ok, it's England only, so there will be Scotland and Wales to come. (NI reports 10 deaths). However, the big 866 figure hides the fact that yesterday's (i.e. 9 April) death toll was significantly lower at 117, or 127 less Scotland and Wales. Is there strategic misreporting of the death figures to hide any flattening of the curve that might be happening now? There's just too much of a discrepancy between the two figures (117 / 866) for me to believe it's simply a matter of reporting delays.


Not sure it does - because if you find that breakdown for yesterday you will see today's figures are from memory much the same.

Sure there is a lag and 866 people haven't died today - but using the same methods I think about 840 was the count yesterday.

Comparing yesterday s 866 with today's 117 isnt a like for like comparison.

....hope I'm wrong - but that's as I see it..


----------



## PK99 (10 Apr 2020)

delb0y said:


> Want some doom-mongery? How about the report from Korea that folks that had it and were thought clear are now testing positive again? It'll certainly throw a spanner in the works if it turns out that catching it and recovering from it doesn't give you any notable immunity. On a positive note, I'm genuinely enjoying reading The Stand again.



Posts like this are worse than useless - without a reference to source the information has zero credibility. But will inevitably be quoted as fact by some.

That is how fake news propagates.

Source please?


----------



## numbnuts (10 Apr 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Oh dear, my nephew's wife who is a nurse at Basingstoke hospital has got the virus so the whole family are now in quarantine


Update - she's better and can go back to work next week


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Posts like this are worse than useless - without a reference to source the information has zero credibility. But will inevitably be quoted as fact by some.
> 
> That is how fake news propagates.
> 
> ...


Reuters ok as a source?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21S15X


----------



## delb0y (10 Apr 2020)

Link for my Korean story is the Beeb:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52239925

Update was at 14:58

*Mod note.*

Source checked and confirmed and here is the content:

*South Korean patients thought cured test positive again*

South Korean health authorities say 91 people thought recovered after contracting coronavirus have tested positive for the disease again.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said on Friday it was not clear why the patients had tested positive for a second time.
KCDC director Jeong Eun-kyeong told a news conference it was possible that the virus had “reactivated” in the patients, as opposed to them being re-infected.
Other health experts suggested the patients may have "relapsed” or been misdiagnosed by faulty tests.
The results will be of keen interest internationally, as health experts worldwide hope people infected by Covid-19 will develop immunity to the disease, allowing them to return to work.


----------



## The Crofted Crest (10 Apr 2020)

A lengthy but relevant article from the Royal Statistical Society


*All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong*

At this critical time in the modern history of the human race, mathematical models have been pushed into the foreground. Epidemic forecasting informs policy and even individual decision-making. Sadly, scientists and journalists have completely failed to communicate how these models work.

Last week the Financial Times published the headline ‘Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population’, reporting on a new mathematical model of COVID-19 epidemic progression. The model produced radically different results when the researchers changed the value of a parameter named ρ – the rate of severe disease amongst the infected. The FT chose to run with an inflammatory headline, assuming an extreme value of ρ that most researchers consider highly implausible. [1]

Since its publication, hundreds of scientists have attacked the work, forcing the original authors to state publicly that they were not trying to make a forecast at all. But the damage had already been done: many other media organisations, such as the BBC, had already broadcast the headline.

Epidemiologists are making the same mistakes that the climate science community made a decade ago. A series of crises forced climatologists to learn painful lessons on how (not) to communicate with policy-makers and the public.

In 2010 the 4th IPCC report was attacked for containing a single error – a claim that the Himalayan glaciers would likely have completely melted by 2035 (‘Glacier Gate’). Climate denialists and recalcitrant nations such as Russia and Saudi Arabia seized on this error as a way to discredit the entire 3000 page report, which was otherwise irreproachable.

When the emails of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of University of East Anglia were hacked in 2009, doubt arose over the trustworthiness of the entire climate science community. Trust was diminished because the head of the CRU refused to openly share computer code and data. The crisis was to cast a pall over the climate science community for many years.

By the time of the 5th IPPC report, mechanisms had been developed to enforce clear communication about the uncertainty surrounding predictive models; and transparency about models and data. The infectious disease community needs to learn these lessons. And learn them quickly.

Over the last days, several infectious disease non-experts have gained media coverage for various ‘too good to be true’ (and plain wrong) coronavirus forecasts. Ideologically-driven commentators have used these results to justify easing of social distancing rules, with potentially devastating consequences.

Scientists and journalists have a moral responsibility to convey the uncertainty inherent in modelling work. There is much at stake. Here we recommend a handful of rules for policy-makers, journalists and scientists.

*Rule 1*. Scientists and journalists should express the level of uncertainty associated with a forecast

All mathematical models contain uncertainty. This should be explicit – researchers should communicate their own certainty that a result is true. A range of plausible results should be provided, not just one extreme result.

*Rule 2*. Journalists must get quotes from other experts before publishing

The worst cases of poor COVID-19 journalism have broken this simple rule. Other scientists have weighed in after publication. But by then a misleading article has reached an audience of millions and taken hold in the public consciousness.

*Rule 3*. Scientists should clearly describe the critical inputs and assumptions of their models 

How sensitive is the model to the input parameters? How sure are you of those parameters? Do other researchers disagree?

*Rule 4*. Be as transparent as possible

Release data and code so that scientific scrutiny can take place. Consider open peer-review so that other experts can quickly give their opinion on a piece of work.

*Rule 5*. Policy-makers should use multiple models to inform policy

The Imperial college model created by Neil Ferguson has been reported on almost exclusively as the modelling input to UK pandemic policy. Have other models from other groups been considered? What is the degree of agreement between the models?

*Rule 6*. Indicate when a model was produced by somebody without a background in infectious diseases 

Would we encourage an epidemiologist to apply ‘fresh thinking’ to the design of an electrical substation? Perhaps we should treat with caution the predictions of electrical engineers about pandemic disease outbreaks.

Martin Goodson (Chair of the RSS Data Science Section)




Notes

[1] Post-publication, the FT have modified the report text but have left the headline unchanged.


----------



## midlife (10 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Posts like this are worse than useless - without a reference to source the information has zero credibility. But will inevitably be quoted as fact by some.
> 
> That is how fake news propagates.
> 
> ...



Been on the BBC news

Scroll down to 14.58

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52239925


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 Apr 2020)

midlife said:


> Been on the BBC news
> 
> Scroll down to 14.58
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52239925


And the BBC report is a summary of the Reuters link posted above.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (10 Apr 2020)

The Reuters link says

"Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing that the virus may have been “reactivated” rather than the patients being re-infected. 

The KCDC’s Jeong raised the possibility that rather than patients being re-infected, the virus may have been “reactivated”.

Kim also said patients had likely “relapsed” rather than been re-infected."

which means 



delb0y said:


> It'll certainly throw a spanner in the works if it turns out that catching it and recovering from it doesn't give you any notable immunity.



isn't what the article says.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 Apr 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> The Reuters link says
> 
> "Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing that the virus may have been “reactivated” rather than the patients being re-infected.
> 
> ...


And, overlapping with the question of immunity, no information is given about the gravity of the illness in these reinfected, reactivated or relapsed patients. Do they feel tickety-boo, are they laid low for a couple of weeks, are they hospitalised, on ventilators or dying? If there is a lower risk factor for them, there is some indication of a degree of immunity having been acquired.


----------



## AuroraSaab (10 Apr 2020)

I might have posted this before, but I don't see why shops like B and M, The Range etc. can't cordon off their non food, non meds, non toiletries aisles. I am sure it would even be possible to make it so the software on the tills wouldn't process non food/non meds. It make the current recreational shopping a bit less attractive, whereas now it's possible to supposedly go out for an essential packet of aspirin and come home with 3 rugs and a mirror.

I think as a nation we are just so addicted to recreational shopping it's very hard to give up. Grocery shopping doesn't have the same appeal.


----------



## tom73 (10 Apr 2020)

1st old Matt come out with his 5 pillars of testing now he's come up with a 3 part plan for PPE.
His 5 pillars look to have got lost in the post now the 3 part plan look's like making things even worse.
All we need is less big statements and posh looking diagrams and more of just handing it over.
To ones who can just get on with it and make it work.


----------



## Rocky (10 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> 1st old Matt come out with his 5 pillars of testing now he's come up with a 3 part plan for PPE.
> His 5 pillars look to have got lost the post now the 3 part plan look's like making things even worse.
> All we need is less big statements and posh looking diagrams and more of just handing it over.
> To ones who can just get on with it and make it work.


I’m afraid I’ve stopped listening to him and Van Tam. I don’t like being told lies or threatened or mislead.....in some aspects they are not following the science (public wearing masks for example)


----------



## BoldonLad (10 Apr 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> I might have posted this before, but I don't see why shops like B and M, The Range etc. can't cordon off their non food, non meds, non toiletries aisles. I am sure it would even be possible to make it so the software on the tills wouldn't process non food/non meds. It make the current recreational shopping a bit less attractive, whereas now it's possible to supposedly go out for an essential packet of aspirin and come home with 3 rugs and a mirror.
> 
> I think as a nation we are just so addicted to recreational shopping it's very hard to give up. Grocery shopping doesn't have the same appeal.


Not all shopping in the non-food section is recreational. There are many homeless people who have recently been housed, but, because of “the virus”, the back up systems to provide basic household items (eg kettle etc) are struggling to cope. BM, Wilco are invaluable in this situation.


----------



## tom73 (10 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m afraid I’ve stopped listening to him and Van Tam. I don’t like being told lies or threatened or mislead.....in some aspects they are not following the science (public wearing masks for example)



The questions they get asked are even worse. The HSJ guy asked a question which was so long I still have now idea what it was. 
I've read shorter academic papers.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (10 Apr 2020)

From the Beeb - update on Apple/Google Covid tracking protocol:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52246319


----------



## Venod (10 Apr 2020)

Meanwhile


----------



## BoldonLad (10 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> From the Beeb - update on Apple/Google Covid tracking protocol:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52246319



Oh yes, can’t see a problem there!


----------



## tom73 (10 Apr 2020)

Venod said:


> Meanwhile
> View attachment 514075


Now let me see


----------



## Unkraut (10 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I would consider myself a healthy 56 year old - yet I am in a high risk group for CV. Would the prof you mention consider my asthma is going to kill me anyway ? - it doesn't feel like a life threatening illness.


I can only imagine he would count you as at more risk of it being serious, maybe a stint in hospital but not likely all things being equal to die from an infection. Those who have died, mostly over 70, really do have serious existing illnesses, often in themselves likely to lead to death in the not too distant future.

You could if you wanted hear the discussion by putting _Prof. Streek and Prof. Püschel about the results of the first Corona study in Heinsberg (Germany) _in YouTube and calling up the English subtitles. The pathologist is Prof Püschel starting at about 17:25. However, the translation is pretty bad (it can't distinguish between _Sie_ as you, her or they) so you will likely only get the gist of it if your brain is in good working order - assuming you never had German inflicted on you at school!

@Pat "5mph" You might find this interesting. Lanz has had some interesting guests on of varying persuasions. The night before Karl Lauterbach MP and epidemiologist who painted a very sombre picture of this lasting well into next year e.g. no sports even in 2021. I suspect (hope!) overdone.


----------



## Unkraut (10 Apr 2020)

Venod said:


> Meanwhile ...


This is precisely the time to consider a pay rise for nursing staff. Not let it get buried in a committee for months waiting for the sacrifice and effort to disappear from public view due to the football championships or something. 

They don't have to name a percentage, but a commitment to acknowledge the worth of nursing staff would be fine for now.


----------



## Johnno260 (10 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> After having problems with cyclists and runners passing on the pavement, from behind and FAR FAR to close and being ignored when complaining, I AM going to take to carrying a hefty walking stick which I intend to stick out horizontally on occasion - if anyone hits it they are passing too close and it is their problem, not mine



People just need to have respect for other people’s personal space, which has gotten bigger these past few weeks.

I think some people passing close is probably just from habit but it doesn’t excuse it.

I have many elderly near me so I don’t want to make them feel uncomfortable with a cyclist passing close, hence why I move as far from the curb as I can, basically middle of the road and I have done that since way before the lockdown was announced, it’s just a case of being responsible in these times.

The old dear who ripped into the boy racer who had a pop at me for giving her a wide berth made my week, she was brutal I loved it, and her thanking me and saying thank you young man for respecting peoples space made my year, I haven’t been called young in years haha


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## Buck (10 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> This is precisely the time to consider a pay rise for nursing staff. Not let it get buried in a committee for months waiting for the sacrifice and effort to disappear from public view due to the football championships or something.
> 
> They don't have to name a percentage, but a commitment to acknowledge the worth of nursing staff would be fine for now.



They should also consider bringing nurse bursaries back IMO.


----------



## mjr (10 Apr 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> I think as a nation we are just so addicted to recreational shopping it's very hard to give up. Grocery shopping doesn't have the same appeal.


Is anyone really going and queuing across a tarmac wasteland that used to be a car park in the hot sun for an hour in Easter week for stuff they don't need? I really doubt it. I think recreational shopping's gone online.


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## Wobblers (10 Apr 2020)

delb0y said:


> Want some doom-mongery? How about the report from Korea that folks that had it and were thought clear are now testing positive again? It'll certainly throw a spanner in the works if it turns out that catching it and recovering from it doesn't give you any notable immunity. On a positive note, I'm genuinely enjoying reading The Stand again.



S. Korea has done over 500,000 tests. 91 is a small total compared to that. Given that no test is 100% accurate, it's quite possible for there to be false negatives - where the test comes back negative but the patient still has the virus. There are just over 10,500 cases of SARS-CoV2 in S Korea. Those 91 people testing positive again is less than 1% of the total. A 1% false negative rate seems very plausible to me. Some (most?) people still test positive for the virus even after recovering, and can do so for as many as 28 days: virus clearance is not particularly fast. There is no indication that those who're now testing positive again are suffering symptoms or experiencing a relapse.

Mishaps in the testing labs also should not be ruled out. A friend of mine who's working in a US lab told me of one incident where four samples were mixed up, so four people have been mistakenly told that they have the virus - and four others that they don't when they do. You will get the occasional mistake when 500,000+ tests are done.

In short, given that the virus takes a long time to clear even after symptoms disappear, and that testing is not 100% accurate, this sort of thing is inevitable. I wouldn't read too much into it.


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## mjr (10 Apr 2020)

News from Belgium: slight net increase in hospitalisation, worry over care home death toll, first court conviction for four-time lockdown-breaker, debate over public mask use continues, shortages in shops including flour because apparently too much is in catering-size bags not retail ones, Eurozone financial support, chocolate Easter bunnies with masks to honour medics, virus-shaped hamburgers in Vietnam


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## rualexander (11 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> They should also consider bringing nurse bursaries back IMO.


They never went away in Scotland, this year going up to £10,000 a year.


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## Proto (11 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> They should also consider bringing nurse bursaries back IMO.



They are being reintroduced in September 2020. Up to £5000 per annum. In some instances an additional £3000 is available.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/nursing-students-to-receive-5-000-payment-a-year


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## Unkraut (11 Apr 2020)

That's good news. Why someone opting for one of the caring professions should have to pay a chunk towards their own training beats me. It's not as though such a degree has to be followed by training in something else relevant to a job, as is true of many degrees.

A friend of ours back in the UK who went into nursing once the kids were older told us of the demoralisation due to insufficient staffing levels. Dangerously low in some cases, and I am glad austerity is no longer making this situation continue of even worsen.


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## marinyork (11 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> That's good news. Why someone opting for one of the caring professions should have to pay a chunk towards their own training beats me. It's not as though such a degree has to be followed by training in something else relevant to a job, as is true of many degrees.
> 
> A friend of ours back in the UK who went into nursing once the kids were older told us of the demoralisation due to insufficient staffing levels. Dangerously low in some cases, and I am glad austerity is no longer making this situation continue of even worsen.



It's good. Funny how it takes a coronavirus to decide how reasonable completely normal policies like grants, or sick pay for the first 3 days, or that SSP isn't enough to live on.

I doubt support or care workers who work outside the NHS will have any up lift in pay, conditions or anything like that. For the sorts of reasons talked about those roles should have student debt cancellation. I doubt we'll even ever know how many of these workers die of the coronavirus essentially doing their jobs at a higher risk compared to most other jobs.


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

Unbelievable just heard old Matt publicly accuse some healthcare staff of misusing PPE and maybe using more than they need. 
Well that's simple Minister suspend all local protocols covering PPE , ask no better still mandate all trusts , providers ect to both provide the correct PPE guidelines as pre PHE. To all staff in all areas of care both direct and indirect for that information to be clearly displayed in all clinical and none clinical areas. To train all staff in the correct use of PPE to a nationally arranged standard by staff who are correctly trained and experienced in all levels of it's use. 

Don't leave it up to employers to just do it as many just don't as good training costs money. Or as is happening they completely mess it up. 
Don't expect Staff to have to go looking for the correct advice either which is what many have had to do. 
Or expect Staff to tell other staff they are doing it wrong as they have been trained and the other staff member has not. 

Above all Minister sort out the supply issues if you don't know how to fix it then ok.
It's not a weakness to ask for help from ones who can it's called leadership.


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## Slick (11 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Unbelievable just heard old Matt publicly accuse some healthcare staff of misusing PPE and maybe using more than they need.
> Well that's simple Minister suspend all local protocols covering PPE , ask no better still mandate all trusts , providers ect to both provide the correct PPE guidelines as pre PHE. To all staff in all areas of care both direct and indirect for that information to be clearly displayed in all clinical and none clinical areas. To train all staff in the correct use of PPE to a nationally arranged standard by staff who are correctly trained and experienced in all levels of it's use.
> 
> Don't leave it up to employers to just do it as many just don't as good training costs money. Or as is happening they completely mess it up.
> ...


The nurse certainly felt he accused them but he did try and explain that as long as everyone used the right ppe and the correct amount, there wouldn't be any further shortages now they are on top of the supply chain.


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## Julia9054 (11 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> I doubt support or care workers who work outside the NHS will have any up lift in pay, conditions or anything like that.


My eldest has been working the odd shift in a residential care home since he graduated 18 months ago. It is a good supplement to his income as a musician. He obviously has no professional income at the moment so decided to apply for care work round here and come and live at home for a bit. I am appalled that the care organisation he is starting work for made him pay £60 out of his own pocket for his DBS check given the pittance he is being paid. Apparently this is standard in the industry whilst the owners of these large care home chains are raking it in.


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> My eldest has been working the odd shift in a residential care home since he graduated 18 months ago. It is a good supplement to his income as a musician. He obviously has no professional income at the moment so decided to apply for care work round here and come and live at home for a bit. I am appalled that the care organisation he is starting work for made him pay £60 out of his own pocket for his DBS check given the pittance he is being paid. Apparently this is standard in the industry whilst the owners of these large care home chains are raking it in.


sadly yes 
So much of social care need's a total rethink but that a topic all of it's own.


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

Slick said:


> The nurse certainly felt he accused them but he did try and explain that as long as everyone used the right ppe and the correct amount, there wouldn't be any further shortages now they are on top of the supply chain.



But that's the problem many are not being told or are being given the wrong advice. Only yesterday the RVI in Newcastle sent out an email to all staff about level of PPE to use. Only 2 hours later to issue another one saying they got it wrong. Blaming PHE as the information had changed so many times. Not in 2 hours it did not or even the last 24 hours. They should know but they clearly do not and they wont be the only ones either.


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## marinyork (11 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> My eldest has been working the odd shift in a residential care home since he graduated 18 months ago. It is a good supplement to his income as a musician. He obviously has no professional income at the moment so decided to apply for care work round here and come and live at home for a bit. I am appalled that the care organisation he is starting work for made him pay £60 out of his own pocket for his DBS check given the pittance he is being paid. Apparently this is standard in the industry whilst the owners of these large care home chains are raking it in.



Moral hazard.

Standard. Asking for payment on training. No pay for travel time. Unpaid overtime on a grand scale. Inadequate training. Large turnover of staff.

Wild west.

It is something I believe is going on a lot as I have written two references for people to do care and support work the last couple of weeks and listened in on things trying to stop services collapsing.

I think it's great your son is doing that.


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Moral hazard.
> 
> Standard. Asking for payment on training. No pay for travel time. Unpaid overtime on a grand scale. Inadequate training. Large turnover of staff.
> 
> ...



Total wild west it's a right mess with standards and training long gone out the window.


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

So much of the basic problems of social care. Could have been massively fixed if for the last 20+ years the role of health visitors had not been hollowed out.


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## Rocky (11 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Unbelievable just heard old Matt publicly accuse some healthcare staff of misusing PPE and maybe using more than they need.
> Well that's simple Minister suspend all local protocols covering PPE , ask no better still mandate all trusts , providers ect to both provide the correct PPE guidelines as pre PHE. To all staff in all areas of care both direct and indirect for that information to be clearly displayed in all clinical and none clinical areas. To train all staff in the correct use of PPE to a nationally arranged standard by staff who are correctly trained and experienced in all levels of it's use.
> 
> Don't leave it up to employers to just do it as many just don't as good training costs money. Or as is happening they completely mess it up.
> ...


My son has just tested positive for Covid19 and is self-isolating.....he tells a very interesting story about his first day at a new hospital last week and the induction for PPE. He was 'shown how to fit a FP3 mask properly'. This was done by putting on a sealed plastic diving-bell type helmet and an odour was pumped which they had to taste and smell. He then had to fit a mask and go through the same procedure - if he couldn't taste the gas or smell it, he had fitted the mask correctly.

Now here is the stupidity - there were ten other doctors on this induction, each one had to wear the diving-bell helmet with no PPE and there was no attempt to clean it before the next person wore it. Perhaps Matt H could explain why NHSE is using this approach to induction?

FWIW, after most of the doctors complained, this process has been stopped.


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

@Brompton Bruce


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## marinyork (11 Apr 2020)

Sounds like something out of the 1950s.


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## Julia9054 (11 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think it's great your son is doing that.


He is lucky that he has experience in an area currently desperate for staff. Most of his freelance musician friends are in a much worse situation income wise.


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

@Brompton Bruce 
Just had this from Mrs 73 

View: https://www.facebook.com/580135647/posts/10163114807080648?sfns=mo


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## Buck (11 Apr 2020)

Proto said:


> They are being reintroduced in September 2020. Up to £5000 per annum. In some instances an additional £3000 is available.
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/government/news/nursing-students-to-receive-5-000-payment-a-year



that‘s good news. I’d missed that so thanks for sharing.


----------



## Buck (11 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> My son has just tested positive for Covid19 and is self-isolating.....he tells a very interesting story about his first day at a new hospital last week and the induction for PPE. He was 'shown how to fit a FP3 mask properly'. This was done by putting on a sealed plastic diving-bell type helmet and an odour was pumped which they had to taste and smell. He then had to fit a mask and go through the same procedure - if he couldn't taste the gas or smell it, he had fitted the mask correctly.
> 
> Now here is the stupidity - there were ten other doctors on this induction, each one had to wear the diving-bell helmet with no PPE and there was no attempt to clean it before the next person wore it. Perhaps Matt H could explain why NHSE is using this approach to induction?
> 
> FWIW, after most of the doctors complained, this process has been stopped.


That read well until your second paragraph - I hope your son is ok and recovers well. I’m off at the minute with suspected covid19. No test here but self isolating at home away from the family.


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## deptfordmarmoset (11 Apr 2020)

I discovered 2 days ago that my mother, 80s and frail, had been socialising with someone I thought was a friend of the family. It took me a whole day to calm myself down. I think I've put an end to that...for now.

For goodness' sake, the sooner people get to do this properly, the sooner I can see my grandkids!


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## Johnno260 (11 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> My son has just tested positive for Covid19 and is self-isolating.....he tells a very interesting story about his first day at a new hospital last week and the induction for PPE. He was 'shown how to fit a FP3 mask properly'. This was done by putting on a sealed plastic diving-bell type helmet and an odour was pumped which they had to taste and smell. He then had to fit a mask and go through the same procedure - if he couldn't taste the gas or smell it, he had fitted the mask correctly.
> 
> Now here is the stupidity - there were ten other doctors on this induction, each one had to wear the diving-bell helmet with no PPE and there was no attempt to clean it before the next person wore it. Perhaps Matt H could explain why NHSE is using this approach to induction?
> 
> FWIW, after most of the doctors complained, this process has been stopped.



my wife had to do that and questioned the logic behind the goldfish bowl.

it seemed utterly nuts to me.


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

https://fullermaps.com/artworks/quarantine-maps 
Free download pen and ink art work the detail is something else.


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## kingrollo (11 Apr 2020)

So a vaccine could be here by September - says a professor - who is in talks for funding...

Feasible ? - on no evidence whatsoever I'm gonna say yes !!!! (Over to the experts !)


----------



## rualexander (11 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> My son has just tested positive for Covid19 and is self-isolating.....he tells a very interesting story about his first day at a new hospital last week and the induction for PPE. He was 'shown how to fit a FP3 mask properly'. This was done by putting on a sealed plastic diving-bell type helmet and an odour was pumped which they had to taste and smell. He then had to fit a mask and go through the same procedure - if he couldn't taste the gas or smell it, he had fitted the mask correctly.
> 
> Now here is the stupidity - there were ten other doctors on this induction, each one had to wear the diving-bell helmet with no PPE and there was no attempt to clean it before the next person wore it. Perhaps Matt H could explain why NHSE is using this approach to induction?
> 
> FWIW, after most of the doctors complained, this process has been stopped.



This doctor's vlog shows him getting the mask fitting procedure you describe at 9:28 in the video timeline.


View: https://youtu.be/7XZ2_xSHKMw


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## Rocky (11 Apr 2020)

rualexander said:


> This doctor's vlog shows him getting the mask fitting procedure you describe at 9:28 in the video timeline.
> 
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/7XZ2_xSHKMw



Yes, that’s exactly it!! I’m not sure why my son had to share it with 10 others.....surely one each would be the norm. Of course he’s not sure where he caught Covid19 from but it’s really worrying that, until a week ago, this was going on.


----------



## mjr (11 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> This was done by putting on a sealed plastic diving-bell type helmet and an odour was pumped which they had to taste and smell. He then had to fit a mask and go through the same procedure - if he couldn't taste the gas or smell it, he had fitted the mask correctly.


That seems particularly farking stupid when an early symptom of covid19 seems to be loss of smell and taste! Presumably some of the infected never fit their masks right!


----------



## Rocky (11 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> That seems particularly farking stupid when an early symptom of covid19 seems to be loss of smell and taste! Presumably some of the infected never fit their masks right!


Absolutely but more of a problem seems to be the ease with which the masks break. After his swabs yesterday, he was given two masks to wear during his isolation. The ear strap on one broke before he got out of the hospital. The other broke on his way home.


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

It look's like they've got hold of some left over costumers from Dr No. 
Some how think Mrs 73 has missed out on the fun she got trained how to use them long before this. 
She's still trying to make up her mind as to what to she has just seen.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So a vaccine could be here by September - says a professor - who is in talks for funding...
> 
> Feasible ? - on no evidence whatsoever I'm gonna say yes !!!! (Over to the experts !)



Link please


----------



## marinyork (11 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Link please



It's on most of today's media.

Sarah Gilbert.

Yes, _that _Sarah Gilbert.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-11...y-autumn-says-oxford-professor-sarah-gilbert/


----------



## mjr (11 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> She's still trying to make up her mind as to what to she has just seen.


"Earth is unprepared (helpless) for the nightmares I've seen. Or should I stay, protect my home, not show them you exist. But then you'll never know … the wonders I've seen."


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Apr 2020)




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## nickyboy (11 Apr 2020)

I'm confused. Is it the doctors that wear the masks....or the doctor's enemies?


----------



## Rocky (11 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm confused. Is it the doctors that wear the masks....or the doctor's enemies?
> 
> View attachment 514230


Both!! See the recent BMJ paper 

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1435


----------



## kingrollo (11 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's on most of today's media.
> 
> Sarah Gilbert.
> 
> ...


enlighten me - Is Sarah Gilbert not a credible source ?


----------



## marinyork (11 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> enlighten me - Is Sarah Gilbert not a credible source ?



I would say so since she's famous and been mentioned numerous times on tv two or three weeks ago and I believe indirectly on this thread.

The interesting bit of the story is it's essentially an update from about three weeks ago and progress made.


----------



## Edwardoka (11 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> My son has just tested positive for Covid19 and is self-isolating.....he tells a very interesting story about his first day at a new hospital last week and the induction for PPE. He was 'shown how to fit a FP3 mask properly'. This was done by putting on a sealed plastic diving-bell type helmet and an odour was pumped which they had to taste and smell. He then had to fit a mask and go through the same procedure - if he couldn't taste the gas or smell it, he had fitted the mask correctly.
> 
> Now here is the stupidity - there were ten other doctors on this induction, each one had to wear the diving-bell helmet with no PPE and there was no attempt to clean it before the next person wore it. Perhaps Matt H could explain why NHSE is using this approach to induction?
> 
> FWIW, after most of the doctors complained, this process has been stopped.


Hopefully your son makes a swift recovery.

Maybe that training procedure is correct and good in normal circumstances but during a pandemic, I struggle to imagine how much procedural idiocy prevented common sense kicking in.

Sainsburys have a guy whose job it is to disinfect shopping trolleys before giving them to customers, it's staggering to me that hospitals are less meticulous.


----------



## Proto (11 Apr 2020)

Here’s my youngest daughter all ‘tooled up’ for a shift at her hospital yesterday. They’ve been struggling with insufficient PPE for a while, hopefully sorted now.


----------



## marinyork (11 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Sainsburys have a guy whose job it is to disinfect shopping trolleys before giving them to customers, it's staggering to me that hospitals are less meticulous.



A lot of the same trolleys get reused again and again in rapid succession. As a hard surface the virus may live for 3 to 5 days on it. Some trolleys without distinfection might be touched by as many as 75 to 100 people. 

I have no idea what people have told the supermarkets, but there are usually few door handle type contact points.

Disinfecting the trolleys is an extremely good idea for the time vs benefit.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (11 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Sainsburys have a guy whose job it is to disinfect shopping trolleys before giving them to customers



That's better than the method used at Morrisons, where the trolley is only cleaned inside the store after the customer has collected it from the outside shelter.


----------



## kingrollo (11 Apr 2020)

Proto said:


> Here’s my youngest daughter all ‘tooled up’ for a shift at her hospital yesterday. They’ve been struggling with insufficient PPE for a while, hopefully sorted now.
> 
> View attachment 514250


much respect - must be a worrying time


----------



## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

That mask look's a bit more robust than the other 3M ones. 
As others have said the straps are pretty crap.


----------



## Proto (11 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> much respect - must be a worrying time



My eldest daughter is working today too, she now works as a uni lecturer but previously she was a ICU respiratory physiotherapist, so has been called back to do some shifts in Bristol. She admits to being a bit nervous.

My middle daughter is a police officer, also in Bristol, dealing with idiots every day. Probably worry about her more, tbh.


----------



## Rocky (11 Apr 2020)

Proto said:


> My eldest daughter is working today too, she now works as a uni lecturer but previously she was a ICU respiratory physiotherapist, so has been called back to do some shifts in Bristol. She admits to being a bit nervous.
> 
> My middle daughter is a police officer, also in Bristol, dealing with idiots every day. Probably worry about her more, tbh.


Again - much respect. You must, rightly, be proud of the three of them


----------



## PK99 (11 Apr 2020)

China is controlling the virus, At a price...

from BBC world service Asia pacific editor:

_The US consulate in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou has warned about discrimination faced by Africans because of fears they could be spreading the coronavirus.

The consulate said the Chinese police had ordered bars and restaurants not to serve people who appeared to be of African origin.

It has warned African-Americans to stay away from the city.

For several days, there have been reports of Africans being evicted from their homes, barred from staying in hotels and forced into quarantine.

With nowhere to go, some are sleeping in the streets.

China's foreign ministry has already acknowledged that there have been "occasional incidents and misunderstandings"._


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

Two more Nursers 
Maybe the CNO can now say just how many ?
I'll give you a clue you won't have enough fingers


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## Johnno260 (11 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> That seems particularly farking stupid when an early symptom of covid19 seems to be loss of smell and taste! Presumably some of the infected never fit their masks right!



my wife has failed two mask trials in the goldfish bowl now, so yes but it was different mask types.

she is scheduled for a third trial in it now....


----------



## marinyork (11 Apr 2020)

@Unkraut what do you know about the three sets of antibody tests being conducted in Germany presently?

What do you know about this gangelt study where 14% of the population had had the virus (not that this is representative as they've had festivals and a lot of mixing)?


----------



## Wobblers (11 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> My son has just tested positive for Covid19 and is self-isolating.....he tells a very interesting story about his first day at a new hospital last week and the induction for PPE. He was 'shown how to fit a FP3 mask properly'. This was done by putting on a sealed plastic diving-bell type helmet and an odour was pumped which they had to taste and smell. He then had to fit a mask and go through the same procedure - if he couldn't taste the gas or smell it, he had fitted the mask correctly.
> 
> Now here is the stupidity - there were ten other doctors on this induction, each one had to wear the diving-bell helmet with no PPE and there was no attempt to clean it before the next person wore it. Perhaps Matt H could explain why NHSE is using this approach to induction?
> 
> FWIW, after most of the doctors complained, this process has been stopped.



In normal times, I could actually understand the diving-bell helmet: it is actually quite effective in demonstrating how to achieve a good mask fit. These are not normal times however. That no consideration seems to have been given to the cross infection risks of this is until very recently an indictment of the organisation of all levels of management. This failure of organisation goes right to the top.

It was clear by mid February that CV-19 posed a major risk of an epidemic in the UK (and that's being very charitable: some people on this thread such as @nickyboy spotted the danger far sooner). Thus, it was also clear that testing capacity would need to be ramped up and sufficient stocks of PPE brought in. Neither were done. The WHO mission to China reported by the end of February that all governments needed to make preparations. This was their recommendations:



> 1. Prepare to immediately activate the highest level of emergency response
> mechanisms to trigger the all-of-government and all-of society approach that is
> essential for early containment of a COVID-19 outbreak;
> 2. Rapidly test national preparedness plans in light of new knowledge on the
> ...



None of these were acted on. Had they been, frontline staff would have had sufficient PPE long before now. We'd have had more testing - and if we'd followed the recommendations for rigorous testing and contact tracing, we might have been able to contain this epidemic right at the bud. This lockdown, and many of these deaths, none of that would have been necessary had we got that right. _If_ we'd had the organisation from the beginning. We didn't.

What do we have instead? Well, there's Hancock, blaming NHS staff for using "too much" PPE. He doesn't seem to understand that most masks are disposable. Even now, still he fails. This congenital disorganisation, it flows right from the top, right from Hancock and Johnson. Instead of accepting the blame, he harangues others for doing their jobs in circumstances made very much worse as a result of his incompetence. That is what really infuriates me.

@Brompton Bruce, I hope your son is one of the lucky ones who don't experience symptoms, or has the mildest of mild cases.


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## MarkF (11 Apr 2020)

We have two types of FFP3 masks , one is a top piece of kit, robust and well designed, the other is the 3M one, which is a badly made piece of garbage, no wonder the NHS gets through so many as a good % fail before a person can get them over their head!

I have had and continue to have conflicting information about what type of PPE I have to wear and when. However, as I said a couple of days ago, our PPE shortage is largely self inflicted. We have unnecessarily ploughed through a ton of PPE that turned up about a week ago.


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## marinyork (11 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> It was clear by mid February that CV-19 posed a major risk of an epidemic in the UK (and that's being very charitable: some people on this thread such as @nickyboy spotted the danger far sooner). Thus, it was also clear that testing capacity would need to be ramped up and sufficient stocks of PPE brought in. Neither were done. The WHO mission to China reported by the end of February that all governments needed to make preparations. This was their recommendations:



Aside from reagents and getting private labs in quicker, I don't see what the UK could have done on testing. It's relying on an invasive swab test that was bodged together by some clever chinese scientists that is probably a bit too technical to carry out taking a sample that is then frantically driven around in white vans for great distances and seems to have a much higher failure rate than the 1% false negatives you generously posted up thread. The double/treble testing of a sizeable minority of people (some needed) was apparently some of the UK's problems on PCR testing and why the politicians lied about it repeatedly. A major flaw is having to rely on this PCR test. More PCR testing would have bought us some very small number of weeks of time and taken massive pressure/worries off some staff in hospitals. In addition it's becoming clear that a robust regime is needed in care homes, probably second priority after hospitals such as ICU staff and patients in hospitals. Even with 30,000-100,000 tests a day there's not much 'change' left after those groups. The whole situation is ludicrous. It basically amounts to people shouting PCR all day long and a load of tribalism. The UK should have been doing about 10,000 tests a day on around 21st March and 30,000 tests a day by around 29th March and perhaps sometime around now getting up to 70,000-100,000. 

In this phase we're in now, I've not heard anybody in the UK talk about proper antibody testing from blood samples analysed properly in labs as is going on in Germany and apparently other countries. This is in stark contrast to many on the thread including yourself who've downplayed it or just wasting time on frivolities. I can see this wasting weeks of the UK's time if it isn't done. Or more likely using data from other countries, eventually. Yes, the UK will likely have about 35,000 people die over months, but this antibody testing could save lives, jobs, mental health and a lot of time.


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## marinyork (11 Apr 2020)

Italy extends the lockdown, or whatever you want to call the set of measures, till 3rd May. Somewhat interesting given we are a couple of weeks behind.


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## Stephenite (11 Apr 2020)

Several countries in Europe, and Philippines, have received substandard equipment recently from China and Russia and has been returned.

Link to Aftenposten (Norwegian broadsheet) https://www.aftenposten.no/verden/i...tok-paa-seg-maskene-forsto-de-at-noe-var-galt


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## Tanis8472 (11 Apr 2020)

James Felton (@JimMFelton) Tweeted:
They’re fiddling the numbers worse than we thought https://t.co/T583a6EnFu 
View: https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1249002951642877955?s=20


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## Tanis8472 (11 Apr 2020)




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## Adam4868 (11 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> James Felton (@JimMFelton) Tweeted:
> They’re fiddling the numbers worse than we thought https://t.co/T583a6EnFu
> View: https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1249002951642877955?s=20



Now we know why she's been hidden away.


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## Venod (11 Apr 2020)

At least the Postman is being looked after.


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## Rocky (11 Apr 2020)

When our local finally reopens I'm going to drink three hundred thousand and thirty four nine hundred and seventy four thousand gin and tonics......and put them on Pritti's slate.


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## Joey Shabadoo (11 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> James Felton (@JimMFelton) Tweeted:
> They’re fiddling the numbers worse than we thought https://t.co/T583a6EnFu
> View: https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1249002951642877955?s=20



A touch of the Abbotts about her


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

Maybe she's let slip next years pay award for NHS staff.


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## marinyork (11 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> When our local finally reopens I'm going to drink three hundred thousand and thirty four nine hundred and seventy four thousand gin and tonics......and put them on Pritti's slate.



It's good news. Means the UK has done a modest number of tests the last two days compared to the shambles the last two weeks.


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## kingrollo (11 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> When our local finally reopens I'm going to drink three hundred thousand and thirty four nine hundred and seventy four thousand gin and tonics......and put them on Pritti's slate.


Think she might well be serving them up for you BB !


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## marinyork (11 Apr 2020)

http://news.sky.com/story/amp/coron...tre-only-conducting-1500-tests-a-day-11971991

Investigative piece about testing.

We have a national lab doing bugger all.


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## Unkraut (11 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> @Unkraut what do you know about the three sets of antibody tests being conducted in Germany presently?
> 
> What do you know about this gangelt study where 14% of the population had had the virus (not that this is representative as they've had festivals and a lot of mixing)?


Yes, this is the study being done by Prof Streeckt in Heinsberg/Gangelt the hot spot in Germany. The provisional results were given at a press conference two days ago where the figure of almost 15% for possible herd immunity was touted.

Yesterday the study came in for some serious criticism from other virologists. From what I have read, the anti-body tests could have picked up as positive those who have had common colds in the last few weeks, these are also due to corona viruses though harmless. You need to do extensive tests to differentiate the new virus from the common cold ones, and this wasn't done.

Further, households were chosen were at least one member had been infected. This means the risk of infection is higher than would be the case in the general population so only one person per household should be used, otherwise you get an exaggerated percentage of the population as a whole who might be immune. Conversely the death rate is reduced by too great a factor.

The criticisms seem to be based on uncertainty caused by Prof Streeck failing to publish his provisional results in writing but relying on a press conference rather than an attempt simply to discredit them. I think he needs to put this right.

I get the feeling, though I hope it won't happen, that politics is starting to influence the science a bit with the 'keeping the lockdown' side being challenged by those who think it reasonable to start relaxing it in stages.


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## Ming the Merciless (11 Apr 2020)

Venod said:


> At least the Postman is being looked after.
> 
> View attachment 514341



The postman always rings twice


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## tom73 (11 Apr 2020)

So 1st we had the Health Secretary accuse health workers of miss using PPE. 
Then later we had the Home Secretary saying 'sorry if people feel there have been failings' 
They don't want you to feel sorry for the way they feel. 
But to understand why they feel it's not working and then sort it out. 
Week's ago the government wisely understood the supermarkets are the best people to keep the county fed. 
Yet won't hand over anything else to anyone who may well be better at it then them.


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## Inertia (11 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> So 1st we had the Health Secretary accuse health workers of miss using PPE.
> Then later we had the Home Secretary saying 'sorry if people feel there have been failings'
> They don't want you to feel sorry for the way they feel.
> But to understand why they feel it's not working and then sort it out.
> ...


Weasley language, not even admitting there are failings or actually apologising at all.


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## nickyboy (11 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Yes, this is the study being done by Prof Streeckt in Heinsberg/Gangelt the hot spot in Germany. The provisional results were given at a press conference two days ago where the figure of almost 15% for possible herd immunity was touted.
> 
> Yesterday the study came in for some serious criticism from other virologists. From what I have read, the anti-body tests could have picked up as positive those who have had common colds in the last few weeks, these are also due to corona viruses though harmless. You need to do extensive tests to differentiate the new virus from the common cold ones, and this wasn't done.
> 
> ...


I do think it's time for wider influences on the lockdown decisions than just the pure epidemiological science

What hasn't become clear to the man on the street is the economic impact of the lockdowns. We are looking at unprecedented levels of debt, unemployment and recession. In UK the Q2 GDP contraction will be somewhere between 15% and 25% and every month of lockdown adds GBP10bn debt, just from furloughing

We come out of this with enormous debt and that will have to be repaid eventually and that will lead to very difficult government spending decisions going forward

So, in summary, the politicians who have to make the hard decisions on when and how to release the lockdowns will have to carefully consider the economic implications of not doing so and there will be a trade-off between this and the health benefits of maintaining the lockdowns


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## Joey Shabadoo (12 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> So 1st we had the Health Secretary accuse health workers of miss using PPE.


To be fair we've had a health worker on this board say they had mis-used PPE
Through my sister I know of two incidents with PPE at a Scottish hospital;
1) An announcement was made that PPE had been delivered and was to be collected from a central point. By the time the nurses got there, the vast majority had been snaffled by office workers, caterers, builders working around the site etc
2) A manager at this hospital cancelled a delivery of PPE because it was outwith the action plan (the order was placed again a few days later)

The medical staff and support staff of the NHS are going above and beyond but we shouldn't forget that it is a massive bureaucracy being asked to cope with a once-in-a-century crisis and bureaucrats are really, really not good at encompassing change quickly. Supermarkets can cope because they are used to responding to market changes quickly (watch their product mix change overnight when a hot weekend is forecast). We need the politicians to be over-ruling the petty bureaucrats jealously guarding their own fiefdoms.

MPs do this day in day out because the vast majority of their constituency case load is helping constituents being thwarted by bureaucracy.


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## Edwardoka (12 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> James Felton (@JimMFelton) Tweeted:
> They’re fiddling the numbers worse than we thought https://t.co/T583a6EnFu
> View: https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1249002951642877955?s=20



That's Numberwang!


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## Rocky (12 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> To be fair we've had a health worker on this board say they had mis-used PPE
> Through my sister I know of two incidents with PPE at a Scottish hospital;
> 1) An announcement was made that PPE had been delivered and was to be collected from a central point. By the time the nurses got there, the vast majority had been snaffled by office workers, caterers, builders working around the site etc
> 2) A manager at this hospital cancelled a delivery of PPE because it was outwith the action plan (the order was placed again a few days later)
> ...


I missed the post about a health worker misusing PPE, could you point me to it? Thanks


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## Joey Shabadoo (12 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I missed the post about a health worker misusing PPE, could you point me to it? Thanks





MarkF said:


> I have had and continue to have conflicting information about what type of PPE I have to wear and when. However, as I said a couple of days ago, our PPE shortage is largely self inflicted. We have unnecessarily ploughed through a ton of PPE that turned up about a week ago.


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## Eziemnaik (12 Apr 2020)

So in the meantime, in the biggest outlier in Europe sky didnt fall, Swedes get to keep on working, economy doesn't get battered, they do not have a problem of exit startegy or lack of it


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## marinyork (12 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> So, in summary, the politicians who have to make the hard decisions on when and how to release the lockdowns will have to carefully consider the economic implications of not doing so and there will be a trade-off between this and the health benefits of maintaining the lockdowns



The mental health bill from lockdowns continuing a long time will itself run into billions and uncalculable cost to lives. The collective mental health cost to those health and care workers who make it through will be large. Similarly a minority of the many who have survived ICU are going to need very expensive things like therapy and treatment for PTSD or other manifestations of trauma.

The behavioural science side of lockdown hasn't been discussed much in the UK. Italy has already extended things to 3rd May and some problems there of people running out of food or discontent in the south.


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## marinyork (12 Apr 2020)

A basic analysis of housing density and coronavirus

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ing-hardest-modern-equivalent-victorian-slums


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## Yellow Fang (12 Apr 2020)

This thing about not being allowed to sunbathe in parks seems a bit weird to me. Maybe some parks are too small for the number of people who want to sunbathe. I jogged through one of our local parks. I reckon at least 10,000 people would have room to sunbathe there with 30 square metres around each person. I am sure that would be enough for all the people living in the high rise flats near by.


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## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

Was reading last night that the lockdown and possible extension of the lockdown has big support amongst the general public.

In my opinion it would be polictal suicide the lift the lockdown whilst we are reporting around 1000 deaths per day.


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## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

On the subject of mental health - I can't think of anything worse for MH than the touted tracking app - which alerts you if you have been in proximity of someone who subsequently tests positive for covid 19...

As an anxiety sufferer heaven knows what that would do to me !


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## Eziemnaik (12 Apr 2020)

How about a vaccine cert, you wouldnt be allowed to travel or go back to work without it?


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## roubaixtuesday (12 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> How about a vaccine cert, you wouldnt be allowed to travel or go back to work without it?



Lack of a vaccine seems a bit of a stumbling block...?


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## mjr (12 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Supermarkets can cope because they are used to responding to market changes quickly (watch their product mix change overnight when a hot weekend is forecast).


 Supermarkets still have shortages of flour, rice, pasta, eggs, tinned goods, tissues and random other items. Toilet rolls were missing for weeks. They don't seem to be responding quickly enough.

Then on the organisational side, there are almost no delivery slots unless registered vulnerable, few collection slots, long queues to get in, long queues surrounded by clothes to get out. I don't think the supermarkets have shown themselves to be the best option but annoyingly they are now the only open shop selling certain essential items, forcing even more people to risk infection in their queues.

I would not wish UK supermarket management on NHS logistics.


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## mjr (12 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> How about a vaccine cert, you wouldnt be allowed to travel or go back to work without it?


Vulnerable to forgeries and probably encourages a big brother database.


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## mjr (12 Apr 2020)

Minister Sharma on Marr Show, trying to make the Home Minister look good by comparison but not quite being as awful.


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## tom73 (12 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> To be fair we've had a health worker on this board say they had mis-used PPE
> Through my sister I know of two incidents with PPE at a Scottish hospital;
> 1) An announcement was made that PPE had been delivered and was to be collected from a central point. By the time the nurses got there, the vast majority had been snaffled by office workers, caterers, builders working around the site etc
> 2) A manager at this hospital cancelled a delivery of PPE because it was outwith the action plan (the order was placed again a few days later)
> ...



Politicians got us into this mess, the current situation is way out side of normal political process. MP's wont fix it owning up and saying we need help will. We have experts in logistics and supply which with the backing of the army can get things moving. Two things the Army are good at planning that's joined up and shifting stuff fast. The current line of with help of .... is top down thinking we need to invert the power. 

As for misusing PPE my earlier post set out how Hancock could have handled it. 
But no publicly he moved the blame on to staff the very staff. Who cover his ass everyday of the week long before this all kicked off. 
Many staff are now expected to use kit they are not trained to use. That's not the fault of them it's down to training which is both fit for purpose and delivered by qualified staff. But that means shifting the blame up the tree which politicians and management don't like. 
The other thing is the quality of some this kit is just not good enough which is not helping with supply again deal with it and fit it. 
Stopping pepole squirreling away PPE can be sorted but then again it's management. I'd love to see anyone try and walk off with anything if theatre Sister was over seeing supply.


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## Joey Shabadoo (12 Apr 2020)

It's the old "OMG, it's snowing, where are the snow ploughs?" argument.


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## mjr (12 Apr 2020)

Belgian (rtbf) news: army into another care home, supermarkets using UV disinfectors that trollies pass through before each use, is Portugal an exception and why?, mask discussion: trained ffp3 user 99% protected, surgical mask 89%, artisanal mask 70%, simple scarf 49%; infected care home workers being told to keep working if asymptomatic


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## Inertia (12 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> It's the old "OMG, it's snowing, where are the snow ploughs?" argument.


A little but in general snow isn’t likely to have as big an impact, but with climate change, who knows?

The first time you have the excuse of surprise but we need to work out how to get equipment or even make it when it’s needed. It’s not easy but that’s the job of a gov. And we need to plan for how we cope next time, levels of response that would kick in to the threat. In hindsight it looks like we had a response but didn’t respond at the appropriate time.


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## Joey Shabadoo (12 Apr 2020)

Inertia said:


> A little but in general snow isn’t likely to have as big an impact, but with climate change, who knows?
> 
> The first time you have the excuse of surprise but we need to work out how to get equipment or even make it when it’s needed. It’s not easy but that’s the job of a gov. And we need to plan for how we cope next time, levels of response that would kick in to the threat. In hindsight it looks like we had a response but didn’t respond at the appropriate time.


Quite possibly, but wasn't there a lot of discussion about when to apply the lockdown, not if?

I honestly think it will be years before we properly understand what has gone on over the last few months. I'm sure mistakes have been made but as you say, it's what happens next time.

I don't think anyone can ever really expect the unexpected and have perfect plans for every eventuality.


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## Inertia (12 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I don't think anyone can ever really expect the unexpected and have perfect plans for every eventuality.


I don’t think anyone is expecting perfect plans but you have to plan for the unexpected too. The vent situation worries me, why the companies were chosen? Why didn’t we try to expand existing suppliers? Can this planning be unpolitised? Is that even a word?

Although a pandemic is not unexpected, it’s a likely scenario. It’s a case of when will the next one be, not if there will be one.


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## Mugshot (12 Apr 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/IamHappyToast/status/1249087444110229511?s=20


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## Inertia (12 Apr 2020)

I like the top comment. 
View: https://twitter.com/amato_sue/status/1249244738173259776?s=20



Mugshot said:


> View: https://twitter.com/IamHappyToast/status/1249087444110229511?s=20


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## nickyboy (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Was reading last night that the lockdown and possible extension of the lockdown has big support amongst the general public.
> 
> In my opinion it would be polictal suicide the lift the lockdown whilst we are reporting around 1000 deaths per day.


When and how to lift the lockdown will be a nuanced political decision

There will be the input from the health professionals about controlling the pandemic. 

But as @marinyork says, there are major health issues created by extending lockdowns

Finally, every day of lockdown is another huge amount of debt that we, the public, will have to pay back over the coming years

The fallout on national finances isn't even being discussed here. This is the elephant in the room. We will increase NHS funding (political suicide to do otherwise) and we will have to manage a much higher debt burden. The only way to do this is to tax us more or reduce other public services or both. Government will have to do this because whilst interest rates are at historic lows, if they start to move up over next few years you and I will be repaying this additional debt for ever


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## AuroraSaab (12 Apr 2020)

Agreed. There is no great clamouring amongst the general public for an end to the lockdown, as far as I can see. There will always be folk who won't stick to it, but it wouldn't matter to them if it was two weeks or two years. Most people I know would support more restrictions. I also think most people will support tax increases to pay for it too.


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## Mo1959 (12 Apr 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> Agreed. There is no great clamouring amongst the general public for an end to the lockdown, as far as I can see. There will always be folk who won't stick to it, but it wouldn't matter to them if it was two weeks or two years. Most people I know would support more restrictions.


It’s strange, but it’s almost starting to feel normal to live like this!


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## matticus (12 Apr 2020)

There are 2 main aspects here: Predicting How HMGov's Lockdown Restrictions will evolve over the months, and what are the best ways to reduce COVID infections.
(I'll put this in 2 posts for tidiness, although they're obviously closely related)

1) *Predicting HM Gov restrictions*:
There is a lot of talk about the HMGov monitoring social distancing and basing policy on this. (and as a result, lots of people get upset at those NOT distancing, resulting in considerable debate in social media. And the papers have run front-page photos of those they see as guilty for letting the side down). Gov have somewhat fuelled this by issuing strong demands for us to behave.
(incidentally, there has so far been no hint from Gov about *tightening* the lockdown - only about maintaining it for longer.)

But in reality, it's pretty clear that HMGov are only looking at the numbers; the number of infections, and deaths:
- If we flout the guidance, but the epidemic starts to tail off, they will start to look at tapering off the lockdown - because the economy is a big priority (right or wrong), so they want as little lockdown as possible. 
- Conversely, if we social distance like crazy (even if we self-impose French-style rules), and the numbers *still* go up, Gov will likely maintain lockdown until they come down.

So when the Daily Mail runs corona-shaming front pages, don't worry about it; they won't affect the lockdown one bit. Only the numbers will.

_I can assure you, we will keep these restrictions under constant review. We will look again in three weeks, and relax them if the evidence shows we are able to._ Boris - 23rd March


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## matticus (12 Apr 2020)

2) *Reducing COVID Infection*

There is a pretty consistent message from experts and the government about how to control this pandemic. It's all about transmission, measured by R0 values, and here is a good basic guide: https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#rsubsubvalues

COVID will infect far more people than normal winter flu without control measures: this boils down to R0 being much higher. It's been calculated as around 2.5*, vs normal Flu at 1.3. If we can get the R number down below 1, infection will slowly fizzle out (the lower the better).
The R0 is “_a combination of the properties of the virus, and the way that humans interact_.”(1).

So let's think about the social distancing most of us are doing; if we stay home from work, avoid everyday social interactions, keep that 2m gap on our public trips, AND KEEP WASHING OUR HANDS I reckon we will cut out 90% of transmission opportunities.
That gets the R factor down to 0.3ish. If we're pessimistic, 0.5. So that's a win; the pandemic WILL fizzle out in time if most people are doing this.

Now: here is where I think we're tending to get things wrong. We're still panicking about individual instances, like you might with something that was fatal to touch, or like a poisonous spider to avoid at all cost. If you're in a vulnerable group i.e those are advised to self-isolate, then this approach makes some sense - every contact is a threat to you. But for the average citizen we need to focus on *overall* transmission rates: 

- focus on the easy wins,
- do those things that cut-out 90% of contact with people not in your household,
- wash your hands before/after every trip.

If some oblivious runner tears past you 1m away, don't stress it - unless that's happening 20 times a day. Worrying about whether your walk should be 60 minutes or 90 minutes? If you're in a quiet area, DON'T worry!

/end


*or possibly as high as 3.5 in some assessments.
(1)Dominique Heinke, an epidemiologist https://www.vox.com/science-and-hea...sion-risk-factors-lockdowns-social-distancing


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## alicat (12 Apr 2020)

Boris Johnson has gone to his second home to continue his recovery from Covid-19.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52259683


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## I like Skol (12 Apr 2020)

Of course, you could be wrong.....


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## Ming the Merciless (12 Apr 2020)

Please pass on to those you know.


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## Ming the Merciless (12 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Supermarkets still have shortages of flour, rice, pasta, eggs, tinned goods, tissues and random other items. Toilet rolls were missing for weeks. They don't seem to be responding quickly enough.
> 
> Then on the organisational side, there are almost no delivery slots unless registered vulnerable, few collection slots, long queues to get in, long queues surrounded by clothes to get out. I don't think the supermarkets have shown themselves to be the best option but annoyingly they are now the only open shop selling certain essential items, forcing even more people to risk infection in their queues.
> 
> I would not wish UK supermarket management on NHS logistics.



Just one of the big four supermarkets is shifting over 60 million cases of stock a day, every day. From supplier into their supermarkets. Just what kind of additional logistical management would you like? How much faster would you like the chickens to lay eggs, or the wheat to grow and be harvested?


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## carlosfandangus (12 Apr 2020)

Tesco released figures the other day, apparently 30% of stock was bought by 10% of their customers before lockdown..I guess that means 10% of their customers are TW@TS


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## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> When and how to lift the lockdown will be a nuanced political decision
> 
> There will be the input from the health professionals about controlling the pandemic.
> 
> ...


It's only in recent years we cleared the debt from WW2
If they stick 2-3 % on the basic rate of tax to pay for it -and fund the NHS that's fine by me.


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## Ming the Merciless (12 Apr 2020)

carlosfandangus said:


> Tesco released figures the other day, apparently 30% of stock was bought by 10% of their customers before lockdown..I guess that means 10% of their customers are TW@TS



Wouldn’t it be great if they restricted those same “customer” twats to limited shopping for the next six months. Sorry you can’t buy bog roll or hand sanitiser or eggs our records indicate you already have 18 months supply.


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## vickster (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It's only in recent years we cleared the debt from WW2
> If they stick 2-3 % on the basic rate of tax to pay for it -and fund the NHS that's fine by me.


2-3p would be rather better than 2-3% on 20p 
Stick it on the higher rates too


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## tom73 (12 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Just one of the big four supermarkets is shifting over 60 million cases of stock a day, every day. From supplier into their supermarkets. Just what kind of additional logistical management would you like? How much faster would you like the chickens to lay eggs, or the wheat to grow and be harvested?



Flour shortage is mostly down to the way the market works. The about of flour that mostly ends up in the domestic market is tiny.
Most is bulk for professional market in normal times it works just fine. The volume now needed for the domestic market is way more than current supply can make. One way which is being looked at is selling in bulk. As the larger bags they can turn round quickly.

The real problem is the people who went into panic mode and stock piled the 1 Billion pound of extra food.
That more than likely ended up in bin.


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## BoldonLad (12 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Unbelievable just heard old Matt publicly accuse some healthcare staff of misusing PPE and maybe using more than they need.
> Well that's simple Minister suspend all local protocols covering PPE , ask no better still mandate all trusts , providers ect to both provide the correct PPE guidelines as pre PHE. To all staff in all areas of care both direct and indirect for that information to be clearly displayed in all clinical and none clinical areas. To train all staff in the correct use of PPE to a nationally arranged standard by staff who are correctly trained and experienced in all levels of it's use.
> 
> Don't leave it up to employers to just do it as many just don't as good training costs money. Or as is happening they completely mess it up.
> ...


Yes, I don’t usually watch updates, but, saw that one. In my experience (and that of wife and daughter, both nurses), the NHS is incredibly wasteful, so, seemed reasonable request to me.


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## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> 2-3p would be rather better than 2-3% on 20p
> Stick it on the higher rates too


Well yes - I might a minority on this but I don't think we pay enough tax in this country.

Qué someone posting on things saying we are tax morning to night....

But in the tax league tables I think UK is pretty well down the tax burden on the average earner - from memory I think Germany was top..


----------



## vickster (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well yes - I might a minority on this but I don't think we pay enough tax in this country.
> 
> Qué someone posting on things saying we are tax morning to night....
> 
> But in the tax league tables I think UK is pretty well down the tax burden on the average earner - from memory I think Germany was top..


Indeed, but you said 2-3% which is diddly squat on 20p, 40p or 50p


----------



## Unkraut (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> On the subject of mental health - I can't think of anything worse for MH than the touted tracking app - which alerts you if you have been in proximity of someone who subsequently tests positive for covid 19...
> 
> As an anxiety sufferer heaven knows what that would do to me !


On the other hand though no news is good news. You would know you have not in all likelihood been near someone long enough to have been infected.

Voluntary use of a tracking app might have to be the compromise between a longer lockdown and restrictions being gradually lifted whilst avoiding the danger of a new wave of infections.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Was reading last night that the lockdown and possible extension of the lockdown has big support amongst the general public.
> 
> In my opinion it would be polictal suicide the lift the lockdown whilst we are reporting around 1000 deaths per day.


Source? No one has asked me, and, I am, as far as I know, a member of the public?


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Indeed, but you said 2-3% which is diddly squat on 20p, 40p or 50p


Ok - whatever it takes - put it on the basic rate of income tax - I would have thought 3% on the basic rate would raise a good whack.
My general point - I don't mind paying and I am not a big earner.
IMO we need to move away from the idea that paying tax is a bad thing. IMO it isn't.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Source? No one has asked me, and, I am, as far as I know, a member of the public?


NewsNow opinion poll section. - can't easily link on phone sorry.


----------



## tom73 (12 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, I don’t usually watch updates, but, saw that one. In my experience (and that of wife and daughter, both nurses), the NHS is incredibly wasteful, so, seemed reasonable request to me.



All public bodies are wasteful 
Going though official channels and request providers to keep any waste to minimum is one thing.
But to publicly shift the blame for a shortage to the very staff who need it is quite another. 
Infection control training was not great to start with but now it's just got even worse. 
Maybe if he lead from the front and mucked in he'd know. 
After all the every day life in a Hospital continues so plenty of bed pans still need emptying.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> On the other hand though no news is good news. You would know you have not in all likelihood been near someone long enough to have been infected.
> 
> Voluntary use of a tracking app might have to be the compromise between a longer lockdown and restrictions being gradually lifted whilst avoiding the danger of a new wave of infections.


Either that or my phone's broke !!!!!

I must my heart sinks whenever I hear "download our app".....


----------



## Edwardoka (12 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> every month of lockdown adds GBP10bn debt, just from furloughing
> 
> We come out of this with enormous debt and that will have to be repaid eventually and that will lead to very difficult government spending decisions going forward





nickyboy said:


> Finally, every day of lockdown is another huge amount of debt that we, the public, will have to pay back over the coming years
> 
> The fallout on national finances isn't even being discussed here. This is the elephant in the room. We will increase NHS funding (political suicide to do otherwise) and we will have to manage a much higher debt burden. The only way to do this is to tax us more or reduce other public services or both. Government will have to do this because whilst interest rates are at historic lows, if they start to move up over next few years you and I will be repaying this additional debt for ever


While obviously mobilising the economy and taking steps necessary to stop the economy collapsing necessitates an increase in public spending and therefore public debt to keep some vital sectors going, what I don't understand is why we're doing the opposite of means-testing on the furlough money being paid out.

I understand the logic of "people who earn more have higher monthly expenditure" but IMO the correct system is "suspend the expenditure", not "massively subsidise the companies who earn money from monthly expenditure"

I know someone who has been furloughed and is quite well-off, owns three properties (two outright, and receive rent on one) and will receive more in government handouts in a month and a half than someone who is jobless living hand to mouth will in a year.

Someone else I know runs a company and his only option to receive any financial assistance while his business is shut down is to furlough himself.

Further due to the nature of his business all his staff are all self-employed. One of his guys started in May last year and is therefore ineligible for furlough payments because he doesn't have the tax records, whereas if he'd started a couple of months earlier he'd be fine.

How is any of that equitable?

It's almost like it was extremely ill-thought out (spoiler: it was) and/or was designed purposefully to allow vast amounts of public revenue to be siphoned off directly to bankers and corporate executives for decades to come.

All £300,034 974,000 of it.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> All public bodies are wasteful
> Going though official channels and request providers to keep any waste to minimum is one thing.
> But to publicly shift the blame for a shortage to the very staff who need it is quite another.
> Infection control training was not great to start with but now it's just got even worse.
> ...


I work in the NHS - and the biggest waste I ever seen was the re org in 2010 - it cost about £4bn - and most of it either couldn't be done - or had to be undone.


----------



## matticus (12 Apr 2020)

I like Skol said:


> Of course, you could be wrong.....


Indeed!


----------



## vickster (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Ok - whatever it takes - put it on the basic rate of income tax - I would have thought 3% on the basic rate would raise a good whack.
> My general point - I don't mind paying and I am not a big earner.
> IMO we need to move away from the idea that paying tax is a bad thing. IMO it isn't.


3% on 20p is less than a penny. Yes it would raise a bit but not as much as 2-3p 👍


----------



## tom73 (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Either that or my phone's broke !!!!!
> 
> I must my heart sinks whenever I hear "download our app".....



Or turn of location settings


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> While obviously mobilising the economy and taking steps necessary to stop the economy collapsing necessitates an increase in public spending and therefore public debt to keep some vital sectors going, what I don't understand is why we're doing the opposite of means-testing on the furlough money being paid out.
> 
> I understand the logic of "people who earn more have higher monthly expenditure" but IMO the correct system is "suspend the expenditure", not "massively subsidise the companies who earn money from monthly expenditure"
> 
> ...


To be fair I think they needed it up and running quickly.
I can work from WFH - so it doesn't affect me - but I think the financial package is one of the few things the govt has come close to getting right.
But I am viewing from afar.


----------



## Unkraut (12 Apr 2020)

Hot off the press this morning, the firm CurVac located in Tübingen (the one Trump wanted to pinch for America) is planning to test a vaccine in early summer - June or at the latest July. I don't think this necessarily means they definitely have a vaccine yet (beware of press headlines!) but it must mean one is in the offing. If first clinical study tests with a hundred volunteers are successful then a major test with several thousand could begin. This gives hope of a vaccine being available before next winter with the possibility of a new wave of infections feared by some.

The company has already developed a vaccine against rabies, so they already have successful experience in this field.

The EU is supporting the costs of the research to the tune of €80 million.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Hot off the press this morning, the firm CurVac located in Tübingen (the one Trump wanted to pinch for America) is planning to test a vaccine in early summer - June or at the latest July. I don't think this necessarily means they definitely have a vaccine yet (beware of press headlines!) but it must mean one is in the offing. If first clinical study tests with a hundred volunteers are successful then a major test with several thousand could begin. This gives hope of a vaccine being available before next winter with the possibility of a new wave of infections feared by some.
> 
> The company has already developed a vaccine against rabies, so they already have successful experience in this field.
> 
> The EU is supporting the costs of the research to the tune of €80 million.


Will the UK be first in the Q ? - or more precisely the west Midlands !


----------



## Edwardoka (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> To be fair I think they needed it up and running quickly.
> I can work from WFH - so it doesn't affect me - but I think the financial package is one of the few things the govt has come close to getting right.
> But I am viewing from afar.


Naw, it's a disgrace. They literally didn't care that many people are falling through the gaps, because they were afraid of it being used for fraud or people getting a penny more than they would otherwise. Sunak said as much during the presser where the scheme for self-employed people was announced.

In addition to the edge cases I outlined above, if you started your current job after February 28th you're screwed because you're not on payroll, the only option is to ask your previous employer to put you back on payroll or to join the queue for UC, a malign system designed to make people give up in despair.

As it stands the furloughing is simply giving public money hand-over-fist to rent-seekers, and we're expected to pick up the tab for decades to come.
Honestly, if this were France there'd be serious rumblings of revolution.


----------



## nickyboy (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It's only in recent years we cleared the debt from WW2
> If they stick 2-3 % on the basic rate of tax to pay for it -and fund the NHS that's fine by me.


I've got a feeling that's not how this is going to play out

In very much oversimplistic terms the people who are getting the financial support introduced during the pandemic are labour voters; lower income, gig economy, can't work from home etc etc

The people who would pay for it with higher taxes will be conservative voters: higher earners, comfortable retired. Again a gross oversimplification but on average, this is what will happen

Would you expect a conservative government to increase the tax burden on its core support to pay for the financial support those gig economy workers are receiving? Unfortunately in the realpolitik world, the answer is no

So I'm expecting some more austere years, NHS excepted


----------



## Archie_tect (12 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Indeed, but you said 2-3% which is diddly squat on 20p, 40p or 50p


2-3% additional tax added to 20%, ie. 22-23% would be a decent starting point providing they scrap Trident... ie it'll never happen.


kingrollo said:


> I work in the NHS - and the biggest waste I ever seen was the re org in 2010 - it cost about £4bn - and most of it either couldn't be done - or had to be undone.



If you really want to get riled about waste... North Staffs Health was *given* to Virgin Health... and all the staff transferred. Virgin Health couldn't make enough profit so cut the staff pay grades down by at least one in most cases and made some of the more senior staff redundant [early retirement options]. Now, in the middle of the coronavirus crisis they have taken their bat home and stopped operating Nortn Staff Health... BUT they insisted that the laptops that the staff used for community district work were returned to them leaving the, now NHS, without any IT support. How cynical and devious and utterly mind-glowingly crass is that? Richard Branson either knows all this is happening and authorised it, or doesn't and isn't capable of provid public services [I hate the insidious asset-stripping of the UK's public services]. Either way he deserves to be shown up for what he is.


----------



## vickster (12 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> 2-3% additional tax added to 20%, ie. 22-23% would be a decent starting point providing they scrap Trident... ie it'll never happen.


I read it as adding 2-3% not 2-3p. I consider tax rates a pennies in the pound not a %. Guess it’s the same thing.
Although 3p on 20p rate is a 15% rise?


----------



## mjr (12 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Hot off the press this morning, the firm CurVac located in Tübingen (the one Trump wanted to pinch for America) is planning to test a vaccine in early summer - June or at the latest July. I don't think this necessarily means they definitely have a vaccine yet (beware of press headlines!) but it must mean one is in the offing. If first clinical study tests with a hundred volunteers are successful then a major test with several thousand could begin. This gives hope of a vaccine being available before next winter with the possibility of a new wave of infections feared by some.
> 
> The company has already developed a vaccine against rabies, so they already have successful experience in this field.
> 
> The EU is supporting the costs of the research to the tune of €80 million.


What's your source? It has more detail than this:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/CureVacAG/status/1247447031360167938


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I've got a feeling that's not how this is going to play out
> 
> In very much oversimplistic terms the people who are getting the financial support introduced during the pandemic are labour voters; lower income, gig economy, can't work from home etc etc
> 
> ...


Whack it on VAT - which imo is a very unfair tax.

The NHS was shifting towards a glorified A+E anyway. If it isn't going to kill you we aren't interested.

If you've got backache, need a new hip or knee, - finance it yourself....
I agree it will shift more to that . NHS patient ?...."take a leaflet sir" .....


----------



## mjr (12 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Just one of the big four supermarkets is shifting over 60 million cases of stock a day, every day. From supplier into their supermarkets. Just what kind of additional logistical management would you like? How much faster would you like the chickens to lay eggs, or the wheat to grow and be harvested?


We're told there's enough eggs and flour but they ain't in the supermarkets. That's believable because I can still get flour from a small shop 20 miles away but it's click and collect only because their shop is too small for both staff and customers under current rules. 

Maybe the supermarket logistics is failing or there's been a decision to prioritise more profitable lines over consistent provision of staples or something else but I can't think of a reason that isn't basically supermarkets failing to meet the country's needs. Government should stop gifting trade to these failing supermarkets and support rebuilding the capacity of the small shops so more people can shop more close to home instead of queueing to get into the edge-of-town pox party sheds. Rewarding failure with NHS logistics contracts would be a farce.


----------



## vickster (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Whack it on VAT - which imo is a very unfair tax.
> 
> The NHS was shifting towards a glorified A+E anyway. If it isn't going to kill you we aren't interested.
> 
> ...


Putting it on VAT penalises everyone who buys anything though?


----------



## mjr (12 Apr 2020)

carlosfandangus said:


> Tesco released figures the other day, apparently 30% of stock was bought by 10% of their customers before lockdown..I guess that means 10% of their customers are TW@TS


Kantor said on BBC More or Less a few weeks ago that only 6% were hoarding, so that means Tesco has an above average share of the TW@TS market!


----------



## vickster (12 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Kantor said on BBC More or Less a few weeks ago that only 6% were hoarding, so that means Tesco has an above average share of the TW@TS market!


Presumably you mean Kantar


----------



## Buck (12 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Naw, it's a disgrace. They literally didn't care that many people are falling through the gaps, because they were afraid of it being used for fraud or people getting a penny more than they would otherwise. Sunak said as much during the presser where the scheme for self-employed people was announced.
> 
> In addition to the edge cases I outlined above, if you started your current job after February 28th you're screwed because you're not on payroll, the only option is to ask your previous employer to put you back on payroll or to join the queue for UC, a malign system designed to make people give up in despair.
> 
> ...



i don’t see it that way. Many of those receiving such support are working for companies who are in difficult circumstances. Companies without the furlough option would have folded and/or made their teams redundant. For example, my friend has his own business and his company has gone to zero income overnight. He employs nearly 80 people and as it stands he has a couple of months before his company folds and all of his people are out of a job. Not sure how that correlates to your post?


----------



## mjr (12 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Presumably you mean Kantar


Yes. Damn you, autocorrect!


----------



## Archie_tect (12 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> I consider tax rates a pennies in the pound not a %. Guess it’s the same thing.


So did Ken Dodd, as he used to say... he thought it still was.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Putting it on VAT penalises everyone who buys anything though?


Agree - I was saying that could happen. Not that I think it is a good move.

VAT is a non progressive tax. So the 20% in money terms is the same for someone on 8k as for someone on £80k .
Putting it on basic rate income tax means those that earn more pay more.


----------



## Buck (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Whack it on VAT - which imo is a very unfair tax.
> 
> The NHS was shifting towards a glorified A+E anyway. If it isn't going to kill you we aren't interested.
> 
> ...





vickster said:


> Putting it on VAT penalises everyone who buys anything though?



I’m sure I’ve read that increases on VAT have a negative impact on those with lower incomes as a greater percentage of their purchases attract VAT


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> I’m sure I’ve read that increases on VAT have a negative impact on those with lower incomes as a greater percentage of their purchases attract VAT


If you buy something for £100 - £20 of that is tax - whether you are low earner or a billionaire....I m perhaps old fashioned and think those that earn more should pay more.....


----------



## Buck (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If you buy something for £100 - £20 of that is tax - whether you are low earner or a billionaire....I m perhaps old fashioned and think those that earn more should pay more.....



I’m not disagreeing with you. Those that earn more, do pay more already but certainly there’s room to pay a little more in such testing times for us as a nation.


----------



## Archie_tect (12 Apr 2020)

Just been sent this article by a friend in South Africa- no comment on their politics or the accuracy- just wanted to see what someone qualified to peer review it thinks... 

http://web.archive.org/web/20200405...ht-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> I’m not disagreeing with you. Those that earn more, do pay more already but certainly there’s room to pay a little more in such testing times for us as a nation.


Yup - compared to private medical insurance - pay an extra £25 a month (for example) seems a bit of bargain.
Obviously it isn't that simple - but that would have my support - rather than cutting our public services to the bone.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> 2-3% additional tax added to 20%, ie. 22-23% would be a decent starting point providing they scrap Trident... ie it'll never happen.
> 
> 
> If you really want to get riled about waste... North Staffs Health was *given* to Virgin Health... and all the staff transferred. Virgin Health couldn't make enough profit so cut the staff pay grades down by at least one in most cases and made some of the more senior staff redundant [early retirement options]. Now, in the middle of the coronavirus crisis they have taken their bat home and stopped operating Nortyn Staff Health... BUT they insisted that the laptops that the staff used for community district work were returned to them leaving the, now NHS, without any IT support. How cynical and devious and utterly mind-glowingly crass is that? Richard Branson either knows all this is happening and authorised it, or doesn't and isn't capable of provid public services [I hate the insidious asset-stripping of the UK's public services]. Either way he deserves to be shown up for what he is.



I seem to recall a little adverse press relating to North Staffs, BEFORE the beard one was involved, not saying he made it better of course.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Putting it on VAT *penalises* everyone who buys anything though?



"penalises" or "spreads the tax burden" ?


----------



## Buck (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yup - compared to private medical insurance - pay an extra £25 a month (for example) seems a bit of bargain.
> Obviously it isn't that simple - but that would have my support - rather than cutting our public services to the bone.



perhaps now is the time for the government (and future governments of any party) to have a separate income tax/NI specifically for the NHS. Ring fence this and as you say, make people realise what extraordinary value it is and correctly funded and managed will serve this country well for generations to come.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> perhaps now is the time for the government (and future governments of any party) to have a separate income tax/NI specifically for the NHS. Ring fence this and as you say, make people realise what extraordinary value it is and correctly funded and managed will serve this country well for generations to come.



Good idea, like a sort of flat rate Insurance Premium?

It would also, perhaps, dispel the myth of "free" healthcare.

If we could just keep the Politicians noses out of it (the NHS, and the fund), it may even work


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> perhaps now is the time for the government (and future governments of any party) to have a separate income tax/NI specifically for the NHS. Ring fence this and as you say, make people realise what extraordinary value it is and correctly funded and managed will serve this country well for generations to come.


Would make sense. But I fear the profit making ethic is too deep in their DNA.
You have a publicly funded NHS that's a roaring success .....hey let's do the same for the Railways .........the utilities.......
Could see Rees Mogg et all sitting quietly by while that happened.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Good idea, like a sort of flat rate Insurance Premium?
> 
> It would also, perhaps, dispel the myth of "free" healthcare.
> 
> If we could just keep the Politicians noses out of it (the NHS, and the fund), it may even work


But that's what National Insurance was originally. All it is is millions of people clubbing together to buy healthcare.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> But that's what National Insurance was originally. All it is is millions of people clubbing together to buy healthcare.



Quite.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

Been reading all over today.....but did I read some new advice for fighting CV - keep fit and eat healthy....

Maybe those upstarts on bikes were right after all....


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

Back to reality Hancock has announced the contact tracing app........

It's called Herd Immunity 2


----------



## PeteXXX (12 Apr 2020)

Until I reached retirement age (65,for me,) I paid approximately £3,500 pa NI plus, obviously, my PAYE tax. 
After 65, though I'm still working part time, I stopped paying NI. Its been mooted that that should cease and, if income continues over a certain level, deductions should continue. 

In 50 years of employment, I've only been hospitalised for 8 days, fortunately, and have claimed few prescriptions (free for me). 
I've had no issue with paying this, as who knows when I might need health care on one level or another.


----------



## winjim (12 Apr 2020)

Is NI used to fund the health service? My understanding was that it was part of the welfare state, ie the benefits system. That might include SSP etc but it's not going to the NHS.

Happy to be corrected.


----------



## lane (12 Apr 2020)

We absolutely need to find the money to fund the NHS at European average level at which point it works much better. Make it a priority. Has been done in the past should now be a clear absolute priority for the future.


----------



## BoldonLad (12 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> Is NI used to fund the health service? My understanding was that it was part of the welfare state, ie the benefits system. That might include SSP etc but it's not going to the NHS.
> 
> Happy to be corrected.



No, I think you are correct, it is simply a form of income tax, under a different name as far as I know., although, I think it was, initially, at least, intended to fund Welfare, NHS etc.

It is very difficult to keep Politicians (or any party) from dipping into a nice tempting pot of cash.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Just been sent this article by a friend in South Africa- no comment on their politics or the accuracy- just wanted to see what someone qualified to peer review it thinks...
> 
> http://web.archive.org/web/20200405...ht-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb



That is an Internet archive. The original author / account is under investigation for breaching Medium’s rules.


----------



## oldwheels (12 Apr 2020)

I am not trying to derail any of this thread as I agree with much of it so do not start attacking me but thank goodness I live in Scotland where we do things a bit better. Disregard the politically inspired announcements about how our NHS is all rubbish. End of story.


----------



## tom73 (12 Apr 2020)

I found it odd that we have now in law a legal requirement to spend a minimum about of funding on foreign aid. 
But no such legal requirement to spend any minimum level or to keep funding for the NHS in line with a set target over x number of years.
No political party have ever openly committed to doing it. 

(BTW i'm not saying foreign aid spending is wrong)


----------



## marinyork (12 Apr 2020)

NI is used to fund the NHS. "The fund" has money taken out of it. At various times where have been below the surface political arguments that not enough of the money was going to the NHS. A proportion is siphoned off to the NHS. The fund is just more or less in real time (it's more complicated than that and why it's led to arguments) it's not a pot of money that's been safely stored away from the past for many years. It was meant that the fund would be put on something of a more sustainable and robust system, but this never happened because the UK's penchant for spending lots of money on nuclear weapons in the 1950s, the korean war and in general the 1951-64 tory government which apart from housing didn't really do very much for 13 years and were a bunch of penny pinchers.

Politically it wasn't talked about that much in the 50s and 60s to voters because the public would think the politicians of the time were irresponsible morons. There are some famous examples of what labour politicians had to say about it from those days. As in other countries like the US in the late 60s and 70s focus was on how to make the things run and offer as wide a range of services as possible.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04517/


----------



## Archie_tect (12 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> That is an Internet archive. The original author / account is under investigation for breaching Medium’s rules.


I'm not concerned about Medium's internal management- has the content been peer-reviewed. Trump hasn't just made up his wild claims, even he isn't that gullible- he's been given information by someone at a high level in the US system.


----------



## PK99 (12 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> Is NI used to fund the health service? My understanding was that it was part of the welfare state, ie the benefits system. That might include SSP etc but it's not going to the NHS.
> 
> Happy to be corrected.



*Total National insurance contributions 2018/19 £136.65bn*
https://www.statista.com/statistics...ax-receipts-national-insurance-contributions/

*Spending on NHS 2018/19 £129bn*
https://fullfact.org/health/spending-english-nhs/


----------



## Rezillo (12 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> I'm not concerned about Medium's internal management- has the content been peer-reviewed.



I don't think anyone in their right mind would agree to peer review that article.


----------



## tom73 (12 Apr 2020)

Now 2 porters from the same hospital 
Both married to nurses at the same trust can't see them coming back for a while.


----------



## Archie_tect (12 Apr 2020)

Rezillo said:


> I don't think anyone in their right mind would agree to peer review that article.



I'm an architect- I have skills in design and construction.

It leads the reader through a process so that it appears plausible but I don't have the knowledge to know if it is utter bilge or has some basis in fact.

Saying that no-one with insight would agree to review it doesn't help me or anyone else see where it is or isn't good science, please could someone explain why it isn't?


----------



## Rocky (12 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> I'm an architect- I have skills in design and construction.
> 
> It leads the reader through a process so that it appears plausible but I don't have the knowledge to know if it is utter bilge or has some basis in fact.
> 
> Saying that no-one with insight would agree to review it doesn't help me or anyone else see where it is or isn't good science, please could someone explain why it isn't?


I’m not a medic but the clinical trial data on hydroxychloroquine doesn’t support its use in treating Covid. The side effects can be horrendous and there seems to be very little benefit. I’m slightly dubious about the physiological mechanisms of the disease described too. I think the pneumonia is caused by an immunological reaction called a cytokine storm, which is not mentioned. My initial reaction would be to dismiss that paper as pseudoscience.


----------



## winjim (12 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> I'm an architect- I have skills in design and construction.
> 
> It leads the reader through a process so that it appears plausible but I don't have the knowledge to know if it is utter bilge or has some basis in fact.
> 
> Saying that no-one with insight would agree to review it doesn't help me or anyone else see where it is or isn't good science, please could someone explain why it isn't?





Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m not a medic but the clinical trial data on hydroxychloroquine doesn’t support its use in treating Covid. The side effects can be horrendous and there seems to be very little benefit. I’m slightly dubious about the physiological mechanisms of the disease described too. I think the pneumonia is caused by an immunological reaction called a cytokine storm, which is not mentioned. My initial reaction would be to dismiss that paper as pseudoscience.


It reads like bollocks to me. Here's a rather more eloquent appraisal.

https://www.truthorfiction.com/covi...ht-have-finally-found-its-secret-medium-post/

Funnily enough, the style of the piece reminded me of a poster on this very forum...


----------



## Unkraut (12 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> What's your source? It has more detail than this:


https://www.heidelberg24.de/region/...ietmar-hopp-covid-19-heilmittel-13599459.html

The update is the important bit, but I agree that the press could be making a bit more of this than is justified, at least in wanting a headline out of it. It also appeared on my son's phone this morning but I don't know if it was the same source or someone else reporting it.

_Update from April 10: The pharmaceutical company CureVac in Tübingen continues to work intensively on a vaccine against the corona virus. "We are right on schedule with our vaccine project," a company spokesman said on Thursday. Research has been ongoing on a vaccine for Covid-19 since January - a clinical trial should begin in early summer. "In June, at the latest in July, we want to start with around 100 people."_

There are of course many who still think a vaccine before next year or even during next year is being optimistic.


----------



## Rocky (12 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> It reads like bollocks to me. Here's a rather more eloquent appraisal.
> 
> https://www.truthorfiction.com/covi...ht-have-finally-found-its-secret-medium-post/
> 
> Funnily enough, the style of the piece reminded me of a poster on this very forum...


Ha ha ha - I’m feeling somewhat grotty and feverish at the moment with brain failure. I suspect Donald Trump would be better able to critically appraise it than me at the mo


----------



## kingrollo (12 Apr 2020)

Story in a few weeks time.......

"Daddy - Mummy says that we can see our friends again next week ....is it true"
dad "Yes it sure is "
Child " Oh great - has the disease gone away"
Dad "No"
Child " oh right - have the got some medicine to stop the disease making people poorly"
Dad "no"
Child " I don't understand daddy how come we can go out"
Dad " Well there's this app ............"


----------



## Archie_tect (12 Apr 2020)

BB, hope you feel better soon and that those feverish feelings go away...


----------



## PK99 (12 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m not a medic but the clinical trial data on hydroxychloroquine doesn’t support its use in treating Covid. The side effects can be horrendous and there seems to be very little benefit. I’m slightly dubious about the physiological mechanisms of the disease described too. I think the pneumonia is caused by an immunological reaction called a cytokine storm, which is not mentioned. My initial reaction would be to dismiss that paper as pseudoscience.


@Brompton Bruce 

I am not a medic either, but have been on 2x200mg hydroxychloroquine for a few years as a way of controlling the effects of Sjogrens syndrome, a lupus like auto immune condition.

Specifically, in my case, controlling pleural effusion provoked by otherwise routine chest infections.

The key potential side effect is a sight issue, I have been switched from 2yr to 1yr eye checks.

My experience on Covid-19 infection was a much shorter and less dramatic infection than my wife.

My reading around suggests that the antimalarial effect is achieved by making the cell interior an inhospitable environment for the malarial parasite. A suggested mechanism for Covid-19 is similar.

You say side effects can be horrendous. On what basis do you say that?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (12 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Ha ha ha - I’m feeling somewhat grotty and feverish at the moment with brain failure. I suspect Donald Trump would be better able to critically appraise it than me at the mo


The only connection between Trump and critical is when doctors describe his mental health condition.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (12 Apr 2020)

Hope you haven't been shaking hands with the PM,@Brompton Bruce . That Eton flu can be a monster.


----------



## Rocky (12 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> @Brompton Bruce
> 
> I am not a medic either, but have been on 2x200mg hydroxychloroquine for a few years as a way of controlling the effects of Sjogrens syndrome, a lupus like auto immune condition.
> 
> ...


The is from a Lancet paper....

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30817-5/fulltext

“What I know for sure as a cardiologist is that these powerful medications have important side-effects including rarely sudden cardiac death”, said Michael Ackerman, a genetic cardiologist and director of Mayo Clinic's Windland Smith Rice Genetic Heart Rhythm Clinic. He said that at least 1% of patients will be at increased risk for a hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine QT reaction capable of triggering drug-induced sudden cardiac death (especially if used in combination with azithromycin). Although such reactions are rare, if millions of people receive the drugs, thousands of lives could be at risk from medications that were supposed to help them to recover from the virus, he said. Ackerman believes such dire consequences can be avoided easily if physicians carefully evaluate vulnerable patients.

But PK always do what your physician advises. Like all drugs it has risks and benefits - just because it has side effects doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take it.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Apr 2020)

On Hydroxychloroquine:

1) Beware of anecdotal data. The list of drugs believed to be effective in early trials but ultimately proved useless is very, very, long.

2) Beware of reported side effects. Even if relatively rare, if used in a large population, they could be significant. 

3) No effective dose has been demonstrated. Just because a dose is effective in other indications does NOT mean it will be effective anti-virally.

Such studies as have been published do not seem to indicate massive promise, as yet.


----------



## Archie_tect (12 Apr 2020)

It was the effectiveness of ventilation if haemoglobin function is indeed compromised by the Covid-19 virus that intrigued me, not the furore about this fixation about hydroxychloroquine- is a virus capable of causing molecular level changes which prevent the effective passage of oxygen to the organs causing shut-down as they describe?

... who wrote what and when is surely of lesser importance? - amateur scientists do sometimes discover life-changing things. Behind all the bluster is there actually some truth to question the effectiveness of current forced invasive entubement?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Apr 2020)

Tonight the Swiss show their support for the UK.


----------



## randynewmanscat (12 Apr 2020)

Share this with your gullible granny, she has too much time on her hands and spends most of it looking at a screen. 
East StratCom, hated by Nigel Farage, appreciated by me. 
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/


----------



## mjr (13 Apr 2020)

Belgian rtbf news: appeals for calm from family of a young man killed Friday that triggered riots, 10'000 swabs taken from care homes, Liege metro mayor unilaterally bans events until June, Pope gives Easter sermon to empty church, university exams online, relaxation of worker protection laws suggested, Easter celebrations under lockdown around the world, online gym instructors boom


----------



## Wobblers (13 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Just been sent this article by a friend in South Africa- no comment on their politics or the accuracy- just wanted to see what someone qualified to peer review it thinks...
> 
> http://web.archive.org/web/20200405...ht-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb



I'm afraid that I didn't get very far through that article. I gave up at "Patients returning for re-hospitalization days or weeks after recovery suffering from apparent delayed post-hypoxic leukoencephalopathy".

Leuko - referring leukocytes: those are the white blood cells of the immune system.
encephalopathy - disease of the brain

Two words with specific clinical meaning. It's a shame the author's looking through a medical dictionary didn't stretch to finding out what they were. It's just meaningless mumbo-jumble using big words to sound significant.

The claim that there is no pneumonia or ARDS is contradicted by all the published papers in the medical and science literature that I've read. As for the virus targetting haemoglobin, that's just chemical, physiological and biological nonsense. @Brompton Bruce calling it pseudoscience is a gross insult to pseudoscience


----------



## Rezillo (13 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> It was the effectiveness of ventilation if haemoglobin function is indeed compromised by the Covid-19 virus that intrigued me, not the furore about this fixation about hydroxychloroquine- is a virus capable of causing molecular level changes which prevent the effective passage of oxygen to the organs causing shut-down as they describe?
> 
> ... who wrote what and when is surely of lesser importance? - amateur scientists do sometimes discover life-changing things. Behind all the bluster is there actually some truth to question the effectiveness of current forced invasive entubement?



Chloroquine use is the only part of that article worthy of any debate and even then, the author's claims are over-stated at best. The rest of the article is utter rubbish.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> It was the effectiveness of ventilation if haemoglobin function is indeed compromised by the Covid-19 virus that intrigued me, not the furore about this fixation about hydroxychloroquine- is a virus capable of causing molecular level changes which prevent the effective passage of oxygen to the organs causing shut-down as they describe?
> 
> ... who wrote what and when is surely of lesser importance? - amateur scientists do sometimes discover life-changing things. Behind all the bluster is there actually some truth to question the effectiveness of current forced invasive entubement?



You can safely ignore anything purporting to be scientific yet containing the phrase

_The media actively engaged their activism to fight ‘bad orange man’ at the cost of thousands of lives. Shame on them_


----------



## brodiej (13 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> I'm afraid that I didn't get very far through that article. I gave up at "Patients returning for re-hospitalization days or weeks after recovery suffering from apparent delayed post-hypoxic leukoencephalopathy".
> 
> Leuko - referring leukocytes: those are the white blood cells of the immune system.
> encephalopathy - disease of the brain
> ...


 
I agree the article is rubbish but the leuko in leukoencephalopathy refers to the white matter in the brain

There are a number of causes of leukoencephalopathy including hypoxia.


----------



## Eziemnaik (13 Apr 2020)

Well some French doc in Marseille is pushing it since the beginning, in his most recent control group out of a 1000 treated with it patients only 5 died, was sufficient to pick interest from French Gov, may be BS, maybe not


----------



## PK99 (13 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Well some French doc in Marseille *is pushing it* since the beginning, in his most recent control group out of a 1000 treated with it patients only 5 died, was sufficient to pick interest from French Gov, may be BS, maybe not



to what do you refer?


----------



## Eziemnaik (13 Apr 2020)

HydroChloroquine


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Apr 2020)

EU President says vulnerable and elderly may have to stay indoors until next year - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ion-president-warns-elderly-may-need-isolate/

This is something my wife and I had already discussed, that she can't go outside until there's a vaccine.


----------



## alicat (13 Apr 2020)

Not quite sure how it's okay for the PM to travel to his second residence and for his fiancee to join him there.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Apr 2020)

alicat said:


> Not quite sure how it's okay for the PM to travel to his second residence and for his fiancee to join him there.



Aye, that's the second time you've brought that up. Could it be because Downing St is the working office of government, filled with staff and operating throughout this crisis whilst Chequers is more appropriate for someone recuperating from a serious illness that put them into intensive care for three days?


----------



## vickster (13 Apr 2020)

Indeed and I’m sure he’s not out gallivanting mixing with the locals, like all the second homers who headed to Southwold


----------



## theclaud (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Aye, that's the second time you've brought that up. Could it be because Downing St is the working office of government, filled with staff and operating throughout this crisis whilst Chequers is more appropriate for someone recuperating from a serious illness that put them into intensive care for three days?


Doesn't he share a flat with Symonds? Y'know - the one the police had to be called to last year because of the screaming and shouting and smashing things?


----------



## Eziemnaik (13 Apr 2020)

Tsssss that would be the third residence


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## Joey Shabadoo (13 Apr 2020)

theclaud said:


> Doesn't he share a flat with Symonds? Y'know - the one the police had to be called to last year because of the screaming and shouting and smashing things?


Would you want to go back to a flat with such nosy neighbours?

ETA - serious answer, he's Prime Minister now. I'm guessing there's security implications.


----------



## mjr (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Aye, that's the second time you've brought that up. Could it be because Downing St is the working office of government, filled with staff and operating throughout this crisis whilst Chequers is more appropriate for someone recuperating from a serious illness that put them into intensive care for three days?


You mean the flat is above a place with loads of people who can bring food and other essentials.

When I heard Boris has gone to his second official residence, I was horrified. It's a real "rules don't apply to me" Scottish CMO moment and loads of people will take this as an excuse to ignore the rule. I'm now worried about the coastal area I live in, the chocolate box area where my mother lives and the tourist town where my in laws are. At least it might help my relatives in London and the Midlands if some idiots leave those.

Chequers and other grand houses owned by the nation and probably National Trust should probably be requisitioned as convalesce homes like in the wars. That would get the message across of what a big deal this is.


----------



## pawl (13 Apr 2020)

Second home owners sending luggage ahead to ther holiday homes by courier to avoid being stopped by the police. Selfish idiots 

Think I’ll send my saddle bag up to a youth hostel.Silly me there all closed.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> HydroChloroquine



Please can we stop pushing unproven cures without references or evidence.

Hydroxychloroquine has potential for COVID treatment, but the evidence for it is extremely weak.

_The popular faith in hydroxychloroquine stands in stark contrast to the weakness of the data. Several studies of its efficacy against COVID-19 have delivered an equivocal or negative verdict, and it can have significant side effects, including heart arrhythmias. Raoult’s positive studies have been widely criticized for their limitations and methodological issues_.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ing-hype-over-unproven-coronavirus-treatment#

Many other drugs are also being trialled for use in COVID. They merely do not have the same hype. You can search on clinicaltrials.gov for ongoing trials; the are 440 of them for COVID and many for agents other than hydroxychloroquine. 

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=COVID&term=&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=

The main story about hydroxychloroquine is how it is being used by Trump to deflect attention from his personal failings.

[Full disclosure: I have a friend who is a professor of virology in France. He is personally scathing of the quality of the study used to push this by the doctor]


----------



## theclaud (13 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Tsssss that would be the third residence


Fourth, IIRC, as he and Symonds reportedly bought a £1.3M four bedroom house in Camberwell last year.


----------



## newfhouse (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Could it be because Downing St is the working office of government, filled with staff and operating throughout this crisis whilst Chequers is more appropriate for someone recuperating from a serious illness that put them into intensive care for three days?


No staff at Chequers? Really?


----------



## marinyork (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> EU President says vulnerable and elderly may have to stay indoors until next year - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ion-president-warns-elderly-may-need-isolate/
> 
> This is something my wife and I had already discussed, that she can't go outside until there's a vaccine.



May not be as incredibly rare a view as thought if this poll that asked substantial, but shorter timescales is anything to go on

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ing-hardest-modern-equivalent-victorian-slums

This poll goes much further than previous ones


----------



## Eziemnaik (13 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Please can we stop pushing unproven cures without references or evidence.
> 
> Hydroxychloroquine has potential for COVID treatment, but the evidence for it is extremely weak.
> 
> ...


Not pushing it at all


roubaixtuesday said:


> Please can we stop pushing unproven cures without references or evidence.
> 
> Hydroxychloroquine has potential for COVID treatment, but the evidence for it is extremely weak.
> 
> ...


Funny how reading the link provided I saw support from heads of French science


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Funny how reading the link provided I saw support from heads of French science



A better example of confirmation bias could not be imagined. Well done.


----------



## Eziemnaik (13 Apr 2020)

Pot, kettle, black


----------



## theclaud (13 Apr 2020)

theclaud said:


> Fourth, IIRC, as he and Symonds reportedly bought a £1.3M four bedroom house in Camberwell last year.


Sorry, I take it back. Third it is, as the flat that the cops attended is presumably out of the picture. The flat they live in at Downing St is the mahoosive one above no 11. Presumably they are renting out the massive house they've just bought in Camberwell (counting dwellings is one thing, counting incomes will be a bit more of a challenge). And of course the house he and his ex have just sold for something in the region of £4M doesn't count. All in it together, see.


----------



## Rezillo (13 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Well some French doc in Marseille is pushing it since the beginning, in his most recent control group out of a 1000 treated with it patients only 5 died, was sufficient to pick interest from French Gov, may be BS, maybe not



There appear to be serious flaws in the initial study. A good summary of the situation here, with report links:

https://www.sciencealert.com/small-...ial-is-not-effective-for-treating-coronavirus

plus more here:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30817-5/fulltext

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1432.full.pdf

A more optimistic note:

https://wellcome.ac.uk/news/can-chl...rus-disease-only-research-will-give-us-answer

and a demolition job:

https://scienceintegritydigest.com/...zithromycin-treatment-of-covid-19-infections/

.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> No staff at Chequers? Really?


There's over 200 people work at No 10.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Pot, kettle, black



Nope. I gave a summary of the position, you picked the only portion which supported you.

This is confirmation bias. 

@Rezillo above shows you how to provide a balanced account. Read them and learn.


----------



## Eziemnaik (13 Apr 2020)

Ok doc


----------



## mjr (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> There's over 200 people work at No 10.


How many work in No 11's flat? How many work at Chequers?

More importantly, which is his primary residence that NHS provision is based on? Or in other words which is served by the hospital expected to treat him?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Apr 2020)

Dearie me


----------



## alicat (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Aye, that's the second time you've brought that up. Could it be because Downing St is the working office of government, filled with staff and operating throughout this crisis whilst Chequers is more appropriate for someone recuperating from a serious illness that put them into intensive care for three days?



Not exactly, @Joey Shabadoo. There is new information - the fact that the PM's fiancee has joined him there. And he won't be staying at Chequers once he is recovered. If the government wants everyone to stay at home then leadership starts at the top. People are being threatened with fines for letting their children play out in their front gardens but it's okay for the PM and his fiancee to make unnecessary journeys.


----------



## Eziemnaik (13 Apr 2020)

In other good news new cases and deaths are falling in Sweden for the 3rd consecutive day despite lack of lockdown😊


----------



## Archie_tect (13 Apr 2020)

alicat said:


> Not exactly, @Joey Shabadoo. There is new information - the fact that the PM's fiancee has joined him there. And he won't be staying at Chequers once he is recovered. If the government wants everyone to stay at home then leadership starts at the top. People are being threatened with fines for letting their children play out in their front gardens but it's okay for the PM and his fiancee to make unnecessary journeys.


+ it's not just Johnson and his fiancee travelling ... there are security, support staff, admin, cooks, cleaners- it's a huge entourage running after them wherever they choose to go, unable to socially distance and mingling with the local populations at every stop-over.


----------



## mjr (13 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> In other good news new cases and deaths are falling in Sweden for the 3rd consecutive day despite lack of lockdown😊


Still compares badly to Norway, which has more restrictions.


----------



## BoldonLad (13 Apr 2020)

theclaud said:


> Doesn't he share a flat with Symonds? Y'know - the one the police had to be called to last year because of the screaming and shouting and smashing things?



Quite possibly, but, what would be difference decamping there, as opposed to decamping to Chequers, or, any of his/their other residences ?


----------



## Eziemnaik (13 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Still compares badly to Norway, which has more restrictions.


It does...
And better compared to UK, which has more restrictions


----------



## newfhouse (13 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> In other good news new cases and deaths are falling in Sweden for the 3rd consecutive day despite lack of lockdown😊


That is good news, but a bit of a stretch to divine meaning just yet, don’t you think?


----------



## Eziemnaik (13 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Quite possibly, but, what would be difference decamping there, as opposed to decamping to Chequers ?


None, apart from the fact it is not allowed for common people


----------



## Eziemnaik (13 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> That is good news, but a bit of a stretch to divine meaning just yet, don’t you think?


I just said it is indeed a good news 😊


----------



## kingrollo (13 Apr 2020)

Surprisingly IMO - Spain and Italy look set to ease their lockdowns - I get the feeling will be quicker to follow them in easing - than we were putting the lockdown in ?


----------



## BoldonLad (13 Apr 2020)

Rezillo said:


> There appear to be serious flaws in the initial study. A good summary of the situation here, with report links:
> 
> https://www.sciencealert.com/small-...ial-is-not-effective-for-treating-coronavirus
> 
> ...



That is a shame. Mrs @BoldonLad has been drinking copious quantities of gin and tonic, for the past two weeks, for the Quinine, of course.


----------



## Rezillo (13 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> That is a shame. Mrs @BoldonLad has been drinking copious quantities of gin and tonic, for the past two weeks, for the Quinine, of course.



Well, its use hasn't been dismissed out of hand, so perhaps Mrs Boldonlad could continue her clinical trial.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Apr 2020)

It's not about Boris Johnson, it's about the Prime Minister. Whoever he/she is, their residences are 10 Downing Street and Chequers where there are security arrangements in place and facilities to carry out the job of leading government.

Can't help but think that it's blind hatred of the man that's driving the criticism. Were Sir Keir Starmer PM in similar circumstances, exactly the same arrangements would apply.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> In other good news new cases and deaths are falling in Sweden for the 3rd consecutive day despite lack of lockdown😊



Again, you provide an unreferenced claim. Please provide references.

Is this relating to today's figures (not yet on the official website https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa ) or yesterday's figures?

Here are the figures up to and including yesterday from worldometers







To claim this is falling for the third consecutive day, whilst literally true, is obviously misleading - it's very clear from the data that numbers reported at weekends are massively lower than during the week, and that depending on Easter weekend reporting, there will surely be increases today or tomorrow.

Per capita numbers in Sweden are far higher than the adjacent Dennmark and Norway. In those countries, the outbreak has much more clearly peaked. Norway has about half the population but eight times less deaths.






https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

(the positive test data is more compelling still)

We will see where it ends. In the meantime, do try to present the data more objectively.


----------



## mjr (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> It's not about Boris Johnson, it's about the Prime Minister. Whoever he/she is, their residences are 10 Downing Street and Chequers where there are security arrangements in place and facilities to carry out the job of leading government.
> 
> Can't help but think that it's blind hatred of the man that's driving the criticism. Were Sir Keir Starmer PM in similar circumstances, exactly the same arrangements would apply.


If PM Kier Starmer dropped a clanger like moving to his second home in the same scenario, I'd be making the same criticism.

Given his weakened state, this is probably the fault of his advisers rather than Boris personally, although he probably appointed those advisers so maybe it is fair to blame him.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> I just said it is indeed a good news 😊



No, that wasn't "just said". There were obvious implications.

Don't be disingenuous.


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> It's not about Boris Johnson, it's about the Prime Minister. Whoever he/she is, their residences are 10 Downing Street and Chequers where there are security arrangements in place and facilities to carry out the job of leading government.
> 
> Can't help but think that it's blind hatred of the man that's driving the criticism. Were Sir Keir Starmer PM in similar circumstances, exactly the same arrangements would apply.


Let's start from the standpoint that (i) Boris is still very ill and is unlikely to be leading government any time soon - he was in Intensive Care up until a couple of days ago (ii) he still might be infectious and could pass on the virus to someone at Chequers - who could then transmit it to vulnerable people in the Bucks communities. I don't care who we are talking about - he or she has a responsibility not to infect people in other communities. Leadership is about setting an example.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Let's start from the standpoint that (i) Boris is still very ill and is unlikely to be leading government any time soon - he was in Intensive Care up until a couple of days ago (ii) he still might be infectious and could pass on the virus to someone at Chequers - who could then transmit it to vulnerable people in the Bucks communities. I don't care who we are talking about - he or she has a responsibility not to infect people in other communities. Leadership is about setting an example.




OK - the choices are

1) Stay in hospital (I'm sure no-one would mind him taking up a hospital bed when others may need it more)
2) Downing St - where 200* people are working and running government during a national crisis. I'm sure having a sick -and as you point out, possibly infectious man would be a point of valid criticism.
3) Chequers.

All the possibilities of passing on the virus exist wherever he goes. Where's the safest place out of the 3 options?


*200 under normal circumstances. May be less, could be more at the moment.


----------



## winjim (13 Apr 2020)

theclaud said:


> Sorry, I take it back. Third it is, as the flat that the cops attended is presumably out of the picture. The flat they live in at Downing St is the mahoosive one above no 11. Presumably they are renting out the massive house they've just bought in Camberwell (counting dwellings is one thing, counting incomes will be a bit more of a challenge). And of course the house he and his ex have just sold for something in the region of £4M doesn't count. All in it together, see.


Common people, mate. He lives in a flat above a shop.


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> OK - the choices are
> 
> 1) Stay in hospital (I'm sure no-one would mind him taking up a hospital bed when others may need it more)
> 2) Downing St - where 200* people are working and running government during a national crisis. I'm sure having a sick -and as you point out, possibly infectious man would be a point of valid criticism.
> ...


Downing Street......he has a flat there. 200 people don't share his flat with him. He won't be walking around the offices.....the bloke is sick.


----------



## vickster (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Downing Street......he has a flat there. 200 people don't share his flat with him. He won't be walking around the offices.....the bloke is sick.


Are you party to the advice he received from his medical team? Perhaps he was strongly advised to recuperate somewhere away from the centre of government


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

Headline in "Dagens Nyheter" - Sweden's newspaper of record - today

_Stockholms insatser för att stoppa coronaviruset har misslyckats på flera punkter. Nu är det viktigt att resten av landet inte gör om samma fel. _

My very ropey translation:

"Stockholm's attempts to stop coronavirus had many mistakes. Now it's essential other regions do not make the same errors"


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## Inertia (13 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Are you party to the advice he received from his medical team? Perhaps he was strongly advised to recuperate somewhere away from the centre of government


Not passing judgement but if he is going to do something contrary to the govs own advice, it would be a good idea to explain the reasoning.


----------



## vickster (13 Apr 2020)

I’m sure one of the hacks will ask at the briefing later


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## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Are you party to the advice he received from his medical team? Perhaps he was strongly advised to recuperate somewhere away from the centre of government


I am party to how it feels when recovering from Covid. I am also party to the idea of stopping unnecessary journeys so that the virus doesnt get spread to rural communities.


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## vickster (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I am party to how it feels when recovering from Covid. I am also party to the idea of stopping unnecessary journeys so that the virus doesnt get spread to rural communities.


No then


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## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> No then


That's not quite true - medical advice is being put out on a daily basis by the Department of Health. Why should Boris get any different advice to the rest of us? Is his physiology different to anyone else? Or is it OK for him to spread the virus?


----------



## Johnno260 (13 Apr 2020)

PM uses a hospital bed, people complain. PM goes to 2nd home to recover people complain.

I just stop paying to these posts as people just criticise whatever he does.

I’m waiting for the why isn’t he back at work complaint in a few days.


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> PM uses a hospital bed, people complain. PM goes to 2nd home to recover people complain.
> 
> I just stop paying teen toon to these posts as people just criticise whatever he does.
> 
> I’m waiting for the why isn’t he back at work complaint in a few days.


I'm not complaining about the first issue. But leadership is about actions and not simply words. How can politicians and senior medical figures (eg Scotland's CMO) have to resign for doing what Boris is doing? Smacks of double standards to me.


----------



## Johnno260 (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'm not complaining about the first issue. But leadership is about actions and not simply words. How can politicians and senior medical figures (eg Scotland's CMO) have to resign for doing what Boris is doing? Smacks of double standards to me.



They were travelling for the sake of being in a different location etc he is not exactly going on a jolly.

Whatever is the best option for him medically and getting him up front and center again takes priority.

Being at No 10 I bet he would probably be inclined to start work earlier than would be ideal.


----------



## Stephenite (13 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Again, you provide an unreferenced claim. Please provide references.
> 
> Is this relating to today's figures (not yet on the official website https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa ) or yesterday's figures?
> 
> ...


Thank you very much @roubaixtuesday . Saved me a job.

Sweden has plenty of restrictions in place though they haven't gone as far as the other nordic countries, or the UK.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (13 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> They were travelling for the sake of being in a different location etc he is not exactly going on a jolly.
> 
> Whatever is the best option for him medically and getting him up front and center again takes priority.
> 
> Being at No 10 I bet he would probably be inclined to start work earlier than would be ideal.



I'm inclined to agree with you here.

Any person, in a similar situation, ie the need to convalesce after a serious illness, would be best advised to do so away from the workplace.

Seems like the natural place for him to recuperate to me.


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

Stephenite said:


> Thank you very much @roubaixtuesday . Saved me a job.
> 
> Sweden has plenty of restrictions in place though they haven't gone as far as the other nordic countries, or the UK.



I have many friends in Sweden. Essentially they have a voluntary lockdown relying on people to be sensible. Far more restrictive than "normal" but equally much less restrictive than anywhere else in Europe. Perhaps 75% of our restrictions in reality, I'd say.

So far, it's clearly proving much less effective than full lockdowns, but perhaps it will be effective _enough_. Only time will tell on that. It seems to be becoming increasingly controversial in Sweden. I hope it works, both because of the friends I have there and also it gives us hope that the virus is not so easily transmitted as to require the really heavy restrictions here.


----------



## alicat (13 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I'm inclined to agree with you here.
> 
> Any person, in a similar situation, ie the need to convalesce after a serious illness, would be best advised to do so away from the workplace.
> 
> Seems like the natural place for him to recuperate to me.



And his fiancee doesn't have to join him. We are all being asked to make sacrifices. Many couples haven't seen each other for weeks because they don't live together. I don' hate Boris Johnson but I would respect him more if he said 'I am going back to 10 Downing Street because the regulations say don't make unnecessary journeys and I will be working in 10 Downing St when I am better. I am doing it to show that the regulations affect everyone and it's my way of thanking the NHS staff who saved my life.'


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## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> They were travelling for the sake of being in a different location etc he is not exactly going on a jolly.
> 
> Whatever is the best option for him medically and getting him up front and center again takes priority.
> 
> Being at No 10 I bet he would probably be inclined to start work earlier than would be ideal.


I hope he gets better soon but to think that the only reason for going to Chequers is to get away from the pressures of government flies in the face of facts. I'm sure we have both listened to briefings from Raab and colleagues where they've said that even when he was in ICU he was participating in Government. He's no more likely to get rest at Chequers than he is at the flat in No. 10. What he is doing is raising the risk of transmitting the virus to a rural community. 

My son is self-isolating and recovering in an AirBnB single room flat in Belsize Park having caught Covid when he was at work. I would like to drive into London (from Oxford) and get him - no one should be sick on their own. I can't because of the fear of transmitting Covid. It would be irresponsible to do so. What message does Boris' actions send to the many health care professionals who are ill, on their own and feeling scared as a result?


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## winjim (13 Apr 2020)

So all these people working from home, where should they go to recuperate if they get ill? The home is the workplace now. My computer is set up in my bedroom, if I get the virus I will be convalescing in what is now literally my office.


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## Archie_tect (13 Apr 2020)

George Monbiot once again expressing our inner thoughts... 


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gijhmipliY&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR11wvZwO268xdxEsC12dq9fzb4HpuONqHzE1q6CpHCL52qG_YJoLGfDETU


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## Stephenite (13 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I have many friends in Sweden. Essentially they have a voluntary lockdown relying on people to be sensible. Far more restrictive than "normal" but equally much less restrictive than anywhere else in Europe. Perhaps 75% of our restrictions in reality, I'd say.
> 
> So far, it's clearly proving much less effective than full lockdowns, but perhaps it will be effective _enough_. Only time will tell on that. It seems to be becoming increasingly controversial in Sweden. I hope it works, both because of the friends I have there and also it gives us hope that the virus is not so easily transmitted as to require the really heavy restrictions here.


I hope it works too. At the moment though Worldometer shows they have four times as many deaths per capita than Norway. As you say only time will tell.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (13 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> George Monbiot once again expressing *our* inner thoughts...
> 
> 
> View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gijhmipliY&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR11wvZwO268xdxEsC12dq9fzb4HpuONqHzE1q6CpHCL52qG_YJoLGfDETU




o-1 here.


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## Inertia (13 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> So all these people working from home, where should they go to recuperate if they get ill? The home is the workplace now. My computer is set up in my bedroom, if I get the virus I will be convalescing in what is now literally my office.


It may well not be feasible to follow the same guidelines as everyone else but it would be a good idea to explain the reasoning. It doesn’t seem fair for excuses to be made for him while others are being publicly critised for doing the same.

I was thinking today I’m pretty lucky to have some garden space to go out in. Must be lousy to have maybe a yard or not even that for many other people.


----------



## Stephenite (13 Apr 2020)

Good news from across the North Sea. Numbers from the Norwegian directorate of health https://www.helsedirektoratet.no/statistikk/antall-innlagte-pasienter-pa-sykehus-med-pavist-covid-19 shows total number of patients in hospital with covid-19 continuing to fall since last monday.

We _can_ beat this.


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## lane (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I hope he gets better soon but to think that the only reason for going to Chequers is to get away from the pressures of government flies in the face of facts. I'm sure we have both listened to briefings from Raab and colleagues where they've said that even when he was in ICU he was participating in Government. He's no more likely to get rest at Chequers than he is at the flat in No. 10. What he is doing is raising the risk of transmitting the virus to a rural community.
> 
> My son is self-isolating and recovering in an AirBnB single room flat in Belsize Park having caught Covid when he was at work. I would like to drive into London (from Oxford) and get him - no one should be sick on their own. I can't because of the fear of transmitting Covid. It would be irresponsible to do so. What message does Boris' actions send to the many health care professionals who are ill, on their own and feeling scared as a result?



He wasn't participating in government when he was in ICU. He was initially in hospital but not in ICU.

Pleased you son is on the mend.


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## Archie_tect (13 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> o-1 here.


There's always the odd one... Spokey


----------



## theclaud (13 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> Common people, mate. He lives in a flat above a shop.


Joey is managing to make it sound a bit like that, isn't he? As if he shares a dorm with the staff or he has to write 'Boris' on his stuff in the fridge. 10 Downing Street has about 100 rooms, and the flat that Johnson and Symonds moved into is a massive, self contained four-bedroom affair, and not even on the premises - it's located above no 11.


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## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

theclaud said:


> Joey is managing to make it sound a bit like that, isn't he? As if he shares a dorm with the staff or he has to write 'Boris' on his stuff in the fridge. 10 Downing Street has about 100 rooms, and the flat that Johnson and Symonds moved into is a massive, self contained four-bedroom affair, and not even on the premises - it's located above no 11.


Why I am surprised and a little bit shocked at the double standards here? We were told to self-isolate, Boris went round shaking people's hands. We were told not to make unnecessary journies. Boris goes off to his country residence. Prince Charles quite rightly got slated for self-isolating at Balmoral. But it seems Boris is above even the Royal Family.


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## kingrollo (13 Apr 2020)

I don't think Boris choice of residence for his recuperation is the worse decision he has made in the CV outbreak.


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## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Meanwhile.......Gown supply critically low in some hospitals.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52269426

Could this be why 41 health and social care workers have already died for doing their jobs?

https://nursingnotes.co.uk/covid-19-memorial/

I don't want any politician to die or get ill but I do want to know why our key workers are being put in such a vulnerable position because of lack of basic kit. Someone needs to be held responsible for this.


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## Joey Shabadoo (13 Apr 2020)

What's needed right now is unity in the face of the greatest crisis to hit this country in 80 years. For us all to support one another and show love, compassion, empathy, tolerance, and sympathy for each other.

Except for farking Tories of course


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## theclaud (13 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't think Boris choice of residence for his recuperation is the worse decision he has made in the CV outbreak.


No it's not, by a long chalk. But you'll get the same reaction on a much more touchy scale when you point out that the government he leads has been criminally negligent from the off, so it's as well to start on the small stuff. After all, people actively chose to put this shower of bastards in power.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Meanwhile.......Gown supply critically low in some hospitals.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52269426
> 
> ...



In Scotland, care home bosses have been locking PPE away from staff and ordering them to take off masks

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/...5OPQzMfSJ8Ncz023BUCnJXC9P_KDHeOx8cJVFyZkOJvQQ


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## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> What's needed right now is unity in the face of the greatest crisis to hit this country in 80 years. For us all to support one another and show love, compassion, empathy, tolerance, and sympathy for each other.
> 
> Except for farking Tories of course


What we need is for our vulnerable front line health and social care staff to get the necessary PPE to do their job safely. Forget politics - if this were a building site, it would be closed down for appalling health and safety practices.


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## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> In Scotland, care home bosses have been locking PPE away from staff and ordering them to take off masks
> 
> https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/...5OPQzMfSJ8Ncz023BUCnJXC9P_KDHeOx8cJVFyZkOJvQQ


If that is the case, then they deserve prosecuting.

But this is in one care home, according to your reference_: Following allegations that one care home had locked personal protection equipment away from staff who needed it, a union boss called for full enforcement legislation to be used against any care home shown to be negligent._


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## mjr (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> What's needed right now is unity in the face of the greatest crisis to hit this country in 80 years. For us all to support one another and show love, compassion, empathy, tolerance, and sympathy for each other.
> 
> Except for farking Tories of course


No, even farking Tories should show that! Especially the leader. Boris go home, your main home, and stay at home! Protect the NHS! Save lives!


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## Joey Shabadoo (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> If that is the case, then they deserve prosecuting.



It absolutely is the case. I mentioned before that my stepson with asthma and looking after 3 young children was told to come into work at the care home or he wouldn't get paid - a story repeated across Glasgow.

If it's happening extensively in Glasgow, it's happening elsewhere.


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## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> It absolutely is the case. I mentioned before that my stepson with asthma and looking after 3 young children was told to come into work at the care home or he wouldn't get paid - a story repeated across Glasgow.
> 
> If it's happening extensively in Glasgow, it's happening elsewhere.


But please do not try and deflect from the dire situation by saying that I am blaming the Tories. I am not. I am not making any political statement. We have dedicated, brave, key workers, whom we go out every Thursday night at 8.00pm to applaud, and we are willingly putting them at risk of serious illness and death because we are not protecting them. It is a national scandal.


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## theclaud (13 Apr 2020)

What's needed, and has been needed since as soon as it was clear what was happening, is a full lockdown which includes all non-essential communal workplaces, a full economic support programme (including for example a basic income) so that everyone can actually comply with it without starving or becoming homeless, and a massive drive to increase NHS capacity following a decade of deliberate underfunding. And paying all essential workers properly. Instead Johnson and his government decided to let the virus rip through the country unimpeded, then when they saw the scale of the backlash, implemented everything too late and too weakly, tried to blame their own negligence on the very people we need most, whipped up suspicion between citizens and substituted bargain-basement Churchillian rhetoric for both integrity and action. Unity my arse.


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## lane (13 Apr 2020)

I think the main thing Boris should do going forward is take advice from WHO not the scientists who have proved less than competent to date.


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## marinyork (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> It absolutely is the case. I mentioned before that my stepson with asthma and looking after 3 young children was told to come into work at the care home or he wouldn't get paid - a story repeated across Glasgow.
> 
> If it's happening extensively in Glasgow, it's happening elsewhere.



I'm sure it is. There do seem to be very variable outcomes around asthma in particular. In what appear to be broadly similar circumstances:-

- Some people paid full salary (yes, really)
- Some people furloughed (80%)
- Some offered unpaid leave
- Some told to come into work
- Some agreed/actually is SSP
- Some sacked
- Some forced onto SSP by employer when not appropriate (this is fraudulent)
- Some allowed parental leave
- Some allowed care for dependents (and thus almost always unpaid) for a limited time say a week. 
- Some paid for an odd number of carer days (v. rare and not a spoof). 
- Some clawback scheme


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## tom73 (13 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> In Scotland, care home bosses have been locking PPE away from staff and ordering them to take off masks
> 
> https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/...5OPQzMfSJ8Ncz023BUCnJXC9P_KDHeOx8cJVFyZkOJvQQ



If this is the case i'm sorry but i'd be kicking the door in and be dammed. Let them phone the police or what ever the publicity alone would bring them down. Given that much of the PPE at the moment is not coming out he owners pocket it can be argued it's public property anyway. 
PPE only works if you are using it. It's like having an AED in the cupboard and they lose the key.


----------



## kingrollo (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Meanwhile.......Gown supply critically low in some hospitals.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52269426
> 
> ...


Agree - thing is the govt either intentionally or unintentionally have hidden behind "stay home - protect the NHS" any disenting voices are drowned out ....it's quite brilliant really...


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## kingrollo (13 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> I think the main thing Boris should do going forward is take advice from WHO not the scientists who have proved less than competent to date.


To be fair Boris can get the advice from whoever it's his choice then to make the call. The scientists provide the evidence, scenarios etc - but they don't instruct Boris what to do. The most nauseous thing was Boris trying to side step it and imply all the decisions were via the scientists...


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## cookiemonster (13 Apr 2020)

Am I understanding this correctly? The 4 main PPE manufacturers in the UK, all based in England, have announced that they’ll be prioritising England and will not be sending any equipment to Scotland.


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## kingrollo (13 Apr 2020)

Stay at home - protect the NHS - and don't blame the Tories..


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## kingrollo (13 Apr 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Am I understanding this correctly? The 4 main PPE manufacturers in the UK, all based in England, have announced that they’ll be prioritising England and will not be sending any equipment to Scotland.


Given the timescales - I don't think it will matter that much. The UK mass production of ventilators will IMO be too late - at least for this wave of the virus.


----------



## cookiemonster (13 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Stay at home - protect the NHS - and don't blame the Tories..



Stay at home-protect the NHS-and the Tories have some serious questions to answer.


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## tom73 (13 Apr 2020)

Churchill during the war came up with a way for flagging up any papers that came his way. 
Which he felt needed sorting in hurry he had a stamp made with "action this day" 
The more this go's on the more we need someone to hunt around Whitehall for it.


----------



## cookiemonster (13 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Given the timescales - I don't think it will matter that much. The UK mass production of ventilators will IMO be too late - at least for this wave of the virus.



Doesn’t matter? The 4 PPE manufacturers have just said that they’re not sending any PPE north of the border. That’s not ventilators but masks, gowns etc.

But it doesn’t matter? Oh boy.


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Doesn’t matter? The 4 PPE manufacturers have just said that they’re not sending any PPE north of the border. That’s not ventilators but masks, gowns etc.
> 
> But it doesn’t matter? Oh boy.


I'm absolutely gobsmacked - 'limiting the supplies to Scotland' (from a BBC source).......there's a shortage in England but, no way would I have thought this would happen. The Prof and I have a number of dear friends who are on the frontline in Scotland. This is so sad - we are all supposedly in it together. I would really like to know who made this decision.


----------



## kingrollo (13 Apr 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Doesn’t matter? The 4 PPE manufacturers have just said that they’re not sending any PPE north of the border. That’s not ventilators but masks, gowns etc.
> 
> But it doesn’t matter? Oh boy.


Sorry I didn't mean to be flippant , and I wasn't talking PPE . What I meant was by the time UK produced ventilators are rolling off the production lines in any great numbers - I fear they will be too late for many people.


----------



## kingrollo (13 Apr 2020)

Quiz Question.....which country has ?

Limited gatherings to more than 50
Closed schools and universities
Told over 70s and other vunerables to self isolate

The answer...........Sweden.......


----------



## marinyork (13 Apr 2020)

Early academic number crunching suggests half of coronavirus deaths may be from care homes

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...hs-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests


----------



## kingrollo (13 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Early academic number crunching suggests half of coronavirus deaths may be from care homes
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...hs-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests


We can't be seen to be the worst country in Europe - so keeping those deaths out if the picture muddies the waters somewhat.


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

And if it couldn't get any more hypocritical.....Michael Gove gets special permission for his daughter to be tested (she has mild symptoms). And he was spotted out jogging, despite government advice that anyone in a household with someone who has symptoms should stay inside.

Words fail me..........

Leadership is about actions, it's about setting an example, it's about.....leading.


----------



## tom73 (13 Apr 2020)

Shame she's not a HCP then we'd be over ran with PPE.


----------



## Buck (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> And if it couldn't get any more hypocritical.....Michael Gove gets special permission for his daughter to be tested (she has mild symptoms). And he was spotted out jogging, despite government advice that anyone in a household with someone who has symptoms should stay inside.
> 
> Words fail me..........
> 
> Leadership is about actions, it's about setting an example, it's about.....leading.



reading the article, he went jogging on Easter Sunday, after his daughter had tested negative so, no longer needing to self isolate.


----------



## MrGrumpy (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'm absolutely gobsmacked - 'limiting the supplies to Scotland' (from a BBC source).......there's a shortage in England but, no way would I have thought this would happen. The Prof and I have a number of dear friends who are on the frontline in Scotland. This is so sad - we are all supposedly in it together. I would really like to know who made this decision.



Beggars belief doesn’t it !! I’m not hell bent on separation of the UK but the current scenario we see ourselves in and stories like this getting out does make you wonder why we are all in it together?


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> reading the article, he went jogging on Easter Sunday, after his daughter had tested negative so, no longer needing to self isolate.


Just because she was negative on the test, doesn't mean she didn't have the virus. She had the symptoms and that is what drives the self-isolation.


----------



## Buck (13 Apr 2020)

It‘S not the best written piece is it? My reading is test results back last Tuesday (7th). Went jogging on Sunday (12th)



> Mr Gove, minister for the Cabinet Office, announced he was going into self-isolation last Monday after his daughter developed *COVID-19* symptoms.
> 
> But he was photographed running in a south London park on Easter Sunday, raising questions about whether he was obeying NHS guidance that anyone self-isolating should only exercise at home.
> After the revelation, it transpired that England's chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, had advised that Mr Gove’s daughter should be tested for the virus - which happened on Tuesday.


----------



## marinyork (13 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We can't be seen to be the worst country in Europe - so keeping those deaths out if the picture muddies the waters somewhat.



France and parts of the US seems to have some more robust system for logging care home deaths. 

This is a problem many countries have - Italy and Spain have had large and unknown numbers of people dying in care homes or at home unrecorded. I'm not really that bothered whether the UK numbers are combined with the hospital figures or not as long is someone is counting the numbers in a timely as is reasonably possible and accurate fashion (doesn't seem to be) and more importantly acting on that information in terms of resources.


----------



## alicat (13 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> reading the article, he went jogging on Easter Sunday, after his daughter had tested negative so, no longer needing to self isolate.



And anyway the people at the top shouldn't be pushing in the queue for tests. The system only works if everyone has to abide by the same restrictions.


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> It‘S not the best written piece is it? My reading is test results back last Tuesday (7th). Went jogging on Sunday (12th)


The scientific advice is that even if you test negative, is to assume you have it.

The test......."_is less useful in ruling out COVID-19. A negative test often does not mean the person does not have the disease, and test results need to be considered in the context of patient characteristics and exposure_."

So it has to be driven by the symptoms.....if her symptoms were such that she warranted a test, then the household should have been locked down for two weeks.


----------



## Buck (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Just because she was negative on the test, doesn't mean she didn't have the virus. She had the symptoms and that is what drives the self-isolation.



If a keyworker shows a negative test result then they are able to go back to work so surely that’s the same? 

The guidance we’ve been given in Primary Care is that if we do not show a positive result to the test then we are able to end self isolation and go back to work.


----------



## marinyork (13 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> It‘S not the best written piece is it? My reading is test results back last Tuesday (7th). Went jogging on Sunday (12th)



It's got nothing to do with how it's written. He's been bunged a perk, which people are going to be discussing about commentary Harries said on the matter previously, but it's clearly so. We're now onto children of the elite, it'll be servants and tennis partners next. 

He's a hypocrite and nomenklatura of the highest order.


----------



## Buck (13 Apr 2020)

alicat said:


> And anyway the people at the top shouldn't be pushing in the queue for tests. The system only works if everyone has to abide by the same restrictions.



I wasn‘t addressing that part of the article, just the chronology of the symptoms/self isolation, as above.


----------



## Buck (13 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's got nothing to do with how it's written. He's been bunged a perk, which people are going to be discussing about commentary Harries said on the matter previously, but it's clearly so. We're now onto children of the elite, it'll be servants and tennis partners next.
> 
> He's a hypocrite and nomenklatura of the highest order.



see my reply to alicat. I wasn’t addressing whether it was right the test took place or not.


----------



## marinyork (13 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> see my reply to alicat. I wasn’t addressing whether it was right the test took place or not.



That's trivial.


----------



## BoldonLad (13 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> reading the article, he went jogging on Easter Sunday, after his daughter had tested negative so, no longer needing to self isolate.


Tut tut, don’t disrupt the thread with facts, please


----------



## Buck (13 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> That's trivial.



I think not since we were discussing whether he broke self isolation whilst his daughter had symptoms and had not been tested.


----------



## winjim (13 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Churchill during the war came up with a way for flagging up any papers that came his way.
> Which he felt needed sorting in hurry he had a stamp made with "action this day"
> The more this go's on the more we need someone to hunt around Whitehall for it.


Churchill spent the war pissed up on champagne and brandy while everybody else was under rationing. I can't help feeling that this is part of the reason that Johnson thinks the rules shouldn't apply to him.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Apr 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Am I understanding this correctly? The 4 main PPE manufacturers in the UK, all based in England, have announced that they’ll be prioritising England and will not be sending any equipment to Scotland.



You’ve got it wrong that not what he said. There’s two points , prioritisation to NHS (including Scotland) first, then prioritisation to secondary care providers. At no point was it stated nothing would be sent to Scotland, and particularly in regards NHS.


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> If a keyworker shows a negative test result then they are able to go back to work so surely that’s the same?
> 
> The guidance we’ve been given in Primary Care is that if we do not show a positive result to the test then we are able to end self isolation and go back to work.


But in this case he has bypassed the guidance by getting a test for his daughter, who may still have the virus. So in my mind, he's jumped the queue, bypassed the guidance, ignored her symptoms and endangered people who he came into contact with.

I have a dear friend who has been on ICU with pneumonia and COVID complications, after initially testing negative. He had the sense to self-isolate and keep away from his wife, who is shielded. The good news is that he has recently come home from hospital and is on the road to recovery.


----------



## marinyork (13 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> I think not since we were discussing whether he broke self isolation whilst his daughter had symptoms and had not been tested.



Discussing? What is there to work out? It's not exactly a difficult mathematical proof.

He broke self isolation by being bunged a perk.

I understand the guidance, but sometimes you simply don't appear to live in the practical world. You airy fairy said earlier in the thread about pharmacies 'delivering' things via magic wands on magic carpets. Pronouncements on supermarkets. You're now saying about guidance as if the tests were widely available, or super accurate. They aren't. A lot of people have been tested multiple times.


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Tut tut, don’t disrupt the thread with facts, please


But it is not facts is it ........it's Michael Gove dissembling. The issue about the test didn't come out until he was challenged about breaking self-isolation.


----------



## Buck (13 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Discussing? What is there to work out? It's not exactly a difficult mathematical proof.
> 
> He broke self isolation by being bunged a perk.
> 
> I understand the guidance, but sometimes you simply don't appear to live in the practical world. You airy fairy said earlier in the thread about pharmacies 'delivering' things via magic wands on magic carpets. Pronouncements on supermarkets. You're now saying about guidance as if the tests were widely available, or super accurate. They aren't. A lot of people have been tested multiple times.



I absolutely do live in the practical world. Certainly a different view to yours but we’re all allowed our views aren’t we?

I've not said I agree with Gove’s daughter having the test. For the record I don’t.

Also, I’ve not mentioned that tests are widely available. I’ve posted guidance we have been given. No more. No less. So please, as you would say, don’t misquote me.


----------



## tom73 (13 Apr 2020)

winjim said:


> Churchill spent the war pissed up on champagne and brandy while everybody else was under rationing. I can't help feeling that this is part of the reason that Johnson thinks the rules shouldn't apply to him.



Yet he still gave the impression of leadership, being in control of the situation and the buck stops with me.
None of which we appear to have at the moment.


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

Nuff said...........


----------



## BoldonLad (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> But it is not facts is it ........it's Michael Gove dissembling. The issue about the test didn't come out until he was challenged about breaking self-isolation.


Well, it would appear that, it is a fact that
A) daughter was tested
B) result was negative

My eldest daughter is recovering nicely, by the way.


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Well, it would appear that, it is a fact that
> A) daughter was tested
> B) result was negative
> 
> My eldest daughter is recovering nicely, by the way.


No one was disputing those facts 

Here are some more
c) She was showing symptoms
d) A negative test doesn't mean no infection
e) The symptoms should not be ignored and Gove has a duty not to spread the virus

I am pleased your daughter is recovering - that is good news


----------



## BoldonLad (13 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> No one was disputing those facts
> 
> Here are some more
> c) She was showing symptoms
> ...


If a negative test does not mean negative, why have various posters been bleating on about testing for weeks? If negative does not mean negative, the test is a pointless waste of money, time, and resources. IMHO.

The symptoms are similar to things other than CV.


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> If a negative test does not mean negative, why have various posters been bleating on about testing for weeks? If negative does not mean negative, the test is a pointless waste of money, time, and resources. IMHO.
> 
> The symptoms are similar to things other than CV.


Because a positive test is far move accurate.....about 96%. So if it says you've got it, you've got it (known as sensitivity). The specificity is the ability of the *test* to correctly identify those without the disease (true negative rate) and it is this which is the problem. So my friend tested negative but actually had the virus.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Apr 2020)

It’s alright, Michael Gove (when challenged) said he thought it was alright. Since his comments are clearly official government guidance. Demonstrated by repeated posts on the subject on Cycle chat. He was just following government advice.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Apr 2020)

Oh no, now we're being attacked by bears according to the BBC







(they've edited it now  )


----------



## tom73 (13 Apr 2020)

Another Nurse it's unacceptable to treat them as collateral damage. 
The RCN have now made it clear it's members are within right to refuse to treat people due to lack of PPE.
No HCP should be placed in that position. 
Just sort it out


----------



## cookiemonster (13 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> You’ve got it wrong that not what he said. There’s two points , prioritisation to NHS (including Scotland) first, then prioritisation to secondary care providers. At no point was it stated nothing would be sent to Scotland, and particularly in regards NHS.



It’s being reported on the BBC as no PPE equipment being sent to Scotland as England will get priority.


----------



## cookiemonster (13 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Sorry I didn't mean to be flippant , and I wasn't talking PPE . What I meant was by the time UK produced ventilators are rolling off the production lines in any great numbers - I fear they will be too late for many people.



I have read that a large ventilator order has been cancelled as they’re not advanced enough.


----------



## Tanis8472 (13 Apr 2020)

https://amp.lbc.co.uk/hot-topics/coronavirus/nick-ferrari-message-to-matt-hancock-nurses-ppe/


----------



## Rocky (13 Apr 2020)

The UK is soooooooooooooooo far behind the US when it comes to testing for Covid


View: https://twitter.com/AdrianEdmondson/status/1249753409634394112?s=20


----------



## kingrollo (13 Apr 2020)

It's not much of a choice - but am I alone in thinking that Rabb inspires more confidence than Johnson ?


----------



## tom73 (13 Apr 2020)

Has he been getting maths lessons for Priti


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It's not much of a choice - but am I alone in thinking that *Rabb inspires more confidence than Johnson ?*



Rabb C Nesbit? Yes, absolutely.


----------



## gavroche (13 Apr 2020)

I have just been listening to Macron on the French radio and the confinement is to continue until May 11th in France, when it will be reviewed then.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

gavroche said:


> I have just been listening to Macron on the French radio and the confinement is to continue until May 11th in France, when it will be reviewed then.



Wow. They're only allowed 2km from home, right?

Incroyable!


----------



## gavroche (13 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Wow. They're only allowed 2km from home, right?
> 
> Incroyable!


Correct and with a permit as well.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

gavroche said:


> Correct and with a permit as well.



I'm not sure I could cope with following such a ridiculous and confining rule. 

I'm frankly amazed the French are complying. Assuming they are, that is.


----------



## gavroche (13 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm not sure I could cope with following such a ridiculous and confining rule.
> 
> I'm frankly amazed the French are complying. Assuming they are, that is.


If they don't comply, they have to pay a fine which goes up every time they get caught.


----------



## BoldonLad (13 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm not sure I could cope with following such a ridiculous and confining rule.
> 
> I'm frankly amazed the French are complying. Assuming they are, that is.



We drove through France (from. Spain), via Somport Tunnel to Calais, at the beginning of the "lock down". We had the "Attestation" form, which I had to hand write, since we had no printer. One form per person, per day. 

It did appear to be being Policed, we were stopped at one Police Road Block, and, the forms were asked for and scrutinised, at a subsequent check point we were initially indicated to stop, but, were then waved on without any checking, presumably, because of our UK registration plates.


----------



## Unkraut (13 Apr 2020)

gavroche said:


> I have just been listening to Macron on the French radio and the confinement is to continue until May 11th in France, when it will be reviewed then.


I believe Wednesday is the day the govt and states get together here to review the situation, with growing pressure to start relaxing the lockdown for the sake of the economy. I feel sorry for the French having to prolong this.


----------



## carlosfandangus (13 Apr 2020)

we have 2 in jail for breaking lockdown rules, the fixed penalty has not been through Tynwald yet, however the emergency regulations have been in place for a few weeks, £10.000 fine maximum and or/ a 3 month jail term


----------



## carlosfandangus (13 Apr 2020)

*Two Men Start Jail for Covid-19 Law Breach*
Mon, 13 Apr 2020



Inside Jurby Prison
Two men who were arrested for breaking emergency laws at the weekend, have been sent to prison.
Both appeared in court this morning.
One male received six weeks for failing to follow medical instructions, and the other, four weeks for socialising on a beach – he had previously had a warning.
Manx Police say there are a further two people in custody and they’ll appear at the next available court.


----------



## kingrollo (13 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm not sure I could cope with following such a ridiculous and confining rule.
> 
> I'm frankly amazed the French are complying. Assuming they are, that is.


Why ?? Dying is quite a motivational factor.

It would seem the vast majority of the UK have observed the lockdown in the UK over the Easter weekend.

Can't remember where I read it - but one polictal commentator said that UK govt are surprised at the level of compliance.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Dying is quite a motivational factor



Merely being more than 2km from home will not kill anyone.


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm not sure I could cope with following such a ridiculous and confining rule.


Painful posting with a phone, attempt 3!
They mostly are in the sticks, it's a civic duty thing.


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Merely being more than 2km from home will not kill anyone.


The problem is the people who are 12km from home because they are stir crazy and want to visit their friends.


----------



## mjr (13 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Quiz Question.....which country has ?
> 
> Limited gatherings to more than 50


I think you mean no more than 50!


----------



## mjr (13 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> I’m sure one of the hacks will ask at the briefing later


Did they? I may have missed that bit, but I did see them doing the old "I can't hear you" schtick to a couple of reporters, including Channel 4. I guess Dominic's back at work then?


----------



## vickster (13 Apr 2020)

Dunno, didn’t watch it.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm not sure I could cope with following such a ridiculous and confining rule.
> 
> I'm frankly amazed the French are complying. Assuming they are, that is.



Yep I have a friend in Ireland confine to 2km which for bike riding basically means he’s on the turbo in his shed. He is swearing somewhat farking rotten on his turbo strava posts. It’s driving him mad.


----------



## mjr (14 Apr 2020)

Le Journal de 8h - La 1ere: Le Journal de 8h - Présenté par Foued Boukari - 14.04.2020 https://www.rts.ch/la-1ere/programm...8h-presente-par-foued-boukari-14-04-2020.html

90 year old wine co op falls to carpetbaggers, France lockdown to lift from 11 May, up to 50'000 SFR for businesses from federal government, Trump abusing press conferences for campaigning, Sanders formally backs Bidon, Costs cruises problems


----------



## Archie_tect (14 Apr 2020)

gavroche said:


> Correct and with a permit as well.


2km limit as the crow flies or measured on accessible public roads/paths? ...if there's money involved the line has to be drawn carefully.


----------



## tom73 (14 Apr 2020)

A 500 mile day trip 
It's ok officer we are all wearing masks and gloves. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-52277535
Clowns like this are killing people


----------



## DaveReading (14 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> 2km limit as the crow flies or measured on accessible public roads/paths? ...if there's money involved the line has to be drawn carefully.



2 km radius.

https://2kmfromhome.com/


----------



## mjr (14 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> A 500 mile day trip
> It's ok officer we are all wearing masks and gloves.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-52277535
> Clowns like this are killing people


Where's the Daily Mail story calling for motoring to be banned?

Why was only the driver fined?


----------



## marinyork (14 Apr 2020)

In depth piece on asthma and coronavirus from a uk asthma lead

https://www.theguardian.com/science/audio/2020/apr/14/covid-19-how-vulnerable-are-people-with-asthma

Some of the answers are quite diplomatic.


----------



## mjr (14 Apr 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/DeVore/status/1249816374857392128


----------



## Julia9054 (14 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> In depth piece on asthma and coronavirus from a uk asthma lead
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/science/audio/2020/apr/14/covid-19-how-vulnerable-are-people-with-asthma
> 
> Some of the answers are quite diplomatic.


I listened to that with interest this morning hoping to learn something. No definitive answers


----------



## marinyork (14 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I listened to that with interest this morning hoping to learn something. No definitive answers



There are no what you are calling definitive answers early in an outbreak for specific conditions. That might many more months away. Such things can never be enough for health anxiety and particularly with asthma.


----------



## kingrollo (14 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> In depth piece on asthma and coronavirus from a uk asthma lead
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/science/audio/2020/apr/14/covid-19-how-vulnerable-are-people-with-asthma
> 
> Some of the answers are quite diplomatic.



Part of my reason for cycling is that if I keep my cardio V in good nick it will lessen the effects of my asthma. 
Yet the advice for severe asthmatics is self isolation - so that's not going out on the bike. That doesn't seem right to me.


----------



## numbnuts (14 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Part of my reason for cycling is that if I keep my cardio V in good nick it will lessen the effects of my asthma.
> Yet the advice for severe asthmatics is self isolation - so that's not going out on the bike. That doesn't seem right to me.


Do what feels right for you as there are no rules in a pandemic as know one knows the answers........as yet


----------



## Archie_tect (14 Apr 2020)

DaveReading said:


> 2 km radius.
> 
> https://2kmfromhome.com/


That means I can walk to the airport...


----------



## Andy in Germany (14 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I believe Wednesday is the day the govt and states get together here to review the situation, with growing pressure to start relaxing the lockdown for the sake of the economy. I feel sorry for the French having to prolong this.



Address from the Minister president of Baden-Württemberg. He doesn't seem to think there will be any relaxation of the rules soon.

As far as I can tell, I'm still allowed to go to Freiburg to start work next month, but I will be checking if they don't relax some rules soon.


----------



## kingrollo (14 Apr 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Do what feels right for you as there are no rules in a pandemic as know one knows the answers........as yet



There are rules though (rightly or wrongly)


----------



## Rezillo (14 Apr 2020)

Latest weekly death figures are out.

Weekly death figures

Figures with commentary and charts

Total deaths all ages:

Week ending 20th March 10,645
Week ending 27th March 11,141
Week ending 3rd April 16,387

The 3rd April figures are the highest recorded since the ONS starting publishing them in 2005

The reason for me quoting all deaths is that much the same figures, broken down, form the basis of modelling excess winter deaths from flu. A few more weeks like the above would see an entire bad flu season's excess winter deaths exceeded in less than a month. And it's not even winter any more.


----------



## Saluki (14 Apr 2020)

DaveReading said:


> 2 km radius.
> 
> https://2kmfromhome.com/


That is a handy page. Without crossing my own trail, I could ride a 9.75 mile lap, all on roads, while staying in the perimeter, except for 50 yards just outside because of where the road goes.
living in England rather than NI, this isn’t an issue, but an interesting exercise.
I can see that I can still ride along the river path to ‘the big gate’ too, should I wish.


----------



## kingrollo (14 Apr 2020)

Saluki said:


> That is a handy page. Without crossing my own trail, I could ride a 9.75 mile lap, all on roads, while staying in the perimeter, except for 50 yards just outside because of where the road goes.
> living in England rather than NI, this isn’t an issue, but an interesting exercise.
> I can see that I can still ride along the river path to ‘the big gate’ too, should I wish.



Cant see the govt putting a tighter clampdown on cyclists - can't see that it makes sense on any front. I did wonder about the risk of accidents - but from what I have read eye injuries from DIY are the biggest increase for A & E under the lockdown.


----------



## fossyant (14 Apr 2020)

Saluki said:


> That is a handy page. Without crossing my own trail, I could ride a 9.75 mile lap, all on roads, while staying in the perimeter, except for 50 yards just outside because of where the road goes.
> living in England rather than NI, this isn’t an issue, but an interesting exercise.
> I can see that I can still ride along the river path to ‘the big gate’ too, should I wish.



It's not far is it. I could do a decent off road lap, but would involve 'popping out' of the zone very slightly, before I could turn back into it.


----------



## alicat (14 Apr 2020)

That's a really handy app. I can do a nice loop when I choose to get back on my bike.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (14 Apr 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Latest weekly death figures are out.
> 
> Weekly death figures
> 
> ...



Some good data there.

It looks that each individual week prior to w/e 3 April 2020 indicated a very average year was underway.

Also of note:

Totalling all deaths so far this year (inc' w/e 3 April) = 166444

And totalling the averages of each month of previous years to the same date = 164173

Re the cause of death as per registration certificate:

Covid 19 deaths to w/e 3 April = 4122

Other respiratory disease deaths to w/e 3 April =25012

***

The Covid 19 death figures for subsequent dates from w/e 3 April will be of interest as the daily death tolls rose quite dramatically during that period of time.

I had no idea that 'ordinary' respiratory diseases accounted for so many deaths.


----------



## marinyork (14 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I had no idea that 'ordinary' respiratory diseases accounted for so many deaths.



In this city it's something that gets reported on the news on a regular basis as there's research on it and air pollution from transport in particular, industry and other things.

Never makes a blind bit of difference, the council are very soft on taking this sort of stuff seriously.


----------



## tom73 (14 Apr 2020)

Well if the current situation wont get our GP's to move with the times nothing will. 
I've only got a small bite on my wrist which has now got a bit angry. 
I only need a script for some antibiotics only option was nurse advice.
She agreed with me and was very nice but not a prescriber so only option is to get a GP to phone me back.
One email and few pics could have sorted it.


----------



## mjr (14 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> One email and few pics could have sorted it.


More likely some web app. Email is too easy to intercept and few IT workers have strong email encryption working, lot alone the NHS!


----------



## kingrollo (14 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Well if the current situation wont get our GP's to move with the times nothing will.
> I've only got a small bite on my wrist which has now got a bit angry.
> I only need a script for some antibiotics only option was nurse advice.
> She agreed with me and was very nice but not a prescriber so only option is to get a GP to phone me back.
> One email and few pics could have sorted it.



I don't understand what the GPs are doing ? - They aren't seeing patients - Telephone consultations only - Yet my GP is taking an extra day to sign prescriptions ?


----------



## marinyork (14 Apr 2020)

For anyone interested, I have second hand evidence from my father who's just been discharged that a semi-sophisicated bodged level of antibody testing is going on locally/in the UK for coronavirus. In furtherance to some of the things written previously, the antibody analysis appears to be a powerful tool at the hands of the medics and defecates on/complements PCR so called 'antigen' testing. 

Note: I'm not going to be getting into an argument with anyone that starts being an arse and trying to tell me no, no do you know the difference between antigen and antibody tests.


----------



## marinyork (14 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't understand what the GPs are doing ? - They aren't seeing patients - Telephone consultations only - Yet my GP is taking an extra day to sign prescriptions ?



Easter is the worst time of the year for repeat prescriptions due to the double bank holiday anyway.

Repeat systems at GP surgeries vary a lot. Each individual query on shortage medicines, which will be a small number can take a disproportionately large time to sort out as well. It's quite a difficult one to work out as every pharmacy has different patients and medication stock levels and all that jazz.

Maybe they have a staff that is off ill/self isolating? Various NHS/care/mental health arenas are quoting 20-33% of staff off at any one time.


----------



## tom73 (14 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't understand what the GPs are doing ? - They aren't seeing patients - Telephone consultations only - Yet my GP is taking an extra day to sign prescriptions ?


Maybe down to GP's being on sick maybe ? Some I think are really finding it hard bringing in changers. 
No-one looks to be over seeing a drive for change at a local level.


----------



## Andy in Germany (14 Apr 2020)

Once again those pesky Germans are interfering in the UK, this time by sending the UK 60 ventilators _free of charge_.

I have a sneaky suspicion this won't be well reported in the UK so I thought I'd post it here.


----------



## mjr (14 Apr 2020)

News from Belgium: more care home deaths, more people defying the month-old lockdown and the toll not falling as fast as hoped, disabled people and their families worried they're classed as "non-priority" simply because of their disability, 40 cyclists around Namur have delivered over 2000 masks so far, tests on how long and how much an asymptomatic person can be contagious, cancer treatments being reduced or moved to hospitals not treating covid, air crews deployed to hospitals, US exceeds 500'000 cases, Easter mass in a very conservative Paris church without distancing fined, doubts over holiday bonus pay which differs by employment status in how it reacts to this crisis, SOS Maths app to call a maths teacher during homeschooling, possibse school reopening 20 April, some teenagers resenting parents enforcing lockdown when seeing others out, RSCA restart football training with distancing because it's safer than training in busy Brussels parks.


----------



## marinyork (14 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Maybe down to GP's being on sick maybe ? Some I think are really finding it hard bringing in changers.
> No-one looks to be over seeing a drive for change at a local level.



Same in mental health.


----------



## tom73 (14 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Same in mental health.


Sadly yes


----------



## Andy in Germany (14 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> some teenagers resenting parents enforcing lockdown when seeing others out,



We're having this problem, our lads are bored stiff. Also they can go outside under local rules and that means there's not much we can do to enforce social distancing when they aren't here.

It doesn't help that Elder Son is still working, as bike shops are permitted to stay open, and he will be eighteen in a matter of weeks. Also, his girlfriends family aren't bothered about social distancing despite having a elderly relative in the house.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (14 Apr 2020)

https://obr.uk/coronavirus-reference-scenario/

OBR financial forecast report. Commentary file is the meat of the publication and is worth a read imo. Maybe, not quite as doom and gloom as some might imagine although the range of possible outcomes is quite large and very sensitive to potential fluctuation inducing possibilities as far as I can make out.

***

Typical Beeb headline here - why say something positive when abject misery will do instead - they could've led with a headline relating to the italicised line.:

*Record fall coming for UK economy?*

Britain's independent tax and spending watchdog has warned the coronavirus pandemic could trigger a record 35% drop in UK growth by June.
The Office for Budget Responsibility said that this was based on an assumption that the current lockdown would last for three months.
Under this scenario, unemployment would hit 10%, up from its current 3.9% rate.
_However, once restrictions are lifted, the OBR said it expected growth to recover quickly with no lasting damage._
The OBR outlined the potential hit to the economy and public finances in a special report on Tuesday.
The BBC's economics editor, Faisal Islam, said: "These sorts of numbers are anticipated across the developed world, as most nations pursue forms of shutdown to control the spread of the virus and protect health systems from being overwhelmed.
"The forecast declines illustrate the difficult balancing act for the government in deciding when and how to lift lockdowns, now not expected until May at the earliest."


----------



## fossyant (14 Apr 2020)

Has anyone looked at the frailty score and applied it to a close relative. 

My mum or Dad would probably score 7 or 8, under 75, reasonably fit/well with T2 diabetes (mum), another year she'd be an 8 or 9.

MIL hits 16 on the scale though ! 

A fit 50 year old scores 2 ! Someone under 50 and fit scores 1. 

Frightening. Needs to be more clarity on the Nursing Homes (some figures coming out, but the Home certainly aren't telling us anything).


----------



## alicat (14 Apr 2020)

What frailty scale are you looking at @fossyant? Probably helps if we we are looking at the same one....


----------



## kingrollo (14 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Easter is the worst time of the year for repeat prescriptions due to the double bank holiday anyway.
> 
> Repeat systems at GP surgeries vary a lot. Each individual query on shortage medicines, which will be a small number can take a disproportionately large time to sort out as well. It's quite a difficult one to work out as every pharmacy has different patients and medication stock levels and all that jazz.
> 
> Maybe they have a staff that is off ill/self isolating? Various NHS/care/mental health arenas are quoting 20-33% of staff off at any one time.



Maybe - But this was the situation mid march - still no shielding letter. 

Have any asthmatics on here had shielding letters ?


----------



## kingrollo (14 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Once again those pesky Germans are interfering in the UK, this time by sending the UK 60 ventilators _free of charge_.
> 
> I have a sneaky suspicion this won't be well reported in the UK so I thought I'd post it here.



There just begging us to stay in the EU - we should have none of strong on own, britian first, get brexit done - I want a british ventilator if I need one....


----------



## marinyork (14 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Maybe - But this was the situation mid march - still no shielding letter.
> 
> Have any asthmatics on here had shielding letters ?



On the health anxiety in terms of asthma my advice would be to talk to people about it privately . Health anxiety is something which is being talked about an awful lot at the moment in the volunteering I do. I know some people with very high levels of health anxiety normally and they say they aren't really affected by covid-19, I've met a lot of others with OCD and GAD who are pretty worried and showing health anxiety-like symptoms.

I know a lot of people with asthma. I've only heard of one that has the letter. This doesn't actually surprise me in the slightest (5.4 million people in the UK have the condition which completely dwarfs the 1.5 million letters - source PSNC), but I know saying that is likely I get punched by you and other people on here who are understandably worried. Emotions/tempers/worries flaring up massively for some of those people. One is still raging against the world, but especially the GP after having not got a letter and trying to register and it being declined by the GP. Despite writing some time later, they are still having a lot of problems with deliveries. Some other people I know have been reassured that they haven't got a letter.

Yes, I believe one person on here has a letter for asthma (as a precaution, as outlined by Dr Harries DCMO).

P.S. I can quote some stuff about asthma to put it in context even though you have asked before, however, for two posters I simply think that would be unhelpful and counterproductive, so I haven't done it.


----------



## Julia9054 (14 Apr 2020)

I think it is disingenuous to class people with asthma who are currently asking questions / seeking answers as having health anxiety. Health anxiety is a diagnosable mental health condition. Most people are generally just trying to gather information to risk assess their own personal situations.


----------



## fossyant (14 Apr 2020)

alicat said:


> What frailty scale are you looking at @fossyant? Probably helps if we we are looking at the same one....



Currently on my phone, but published in Guardian and Mail.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (14 Apr 2020)

Just a snippet for the people arguing that Sweden's "success" means the lockdown here is unnecessary

_In an open letter, a group of 22 doctors, virologists and researchers from Sweden’s top hospitals, universities and research institutes pointed write:
_


> _ ...The approach must be changed radically and quickly. As the disease-free virus spreads, it is necessary to increase social distance. Close schools and restaurants in the same way you do in Finland. Everyone who works with the elderly must wear adequate protective equipment. Prior to mass testing of infectiousness on all caring staff and testing for antibodies to sars-covid-2 so that established immune personnel can return to work. Require quarantine by the whole family if a member is ill or tests positive for viruses. Impress in society that anyone can be contagious._



https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...082a2cd32a6a1d#block-5e95dbf68f082a2cd32a6a1d

114 deaths in Sweden taking them over 1000 - they have ~10 million population, and have very roughly half the per capita deaths we do, but many times more than other Scandi countries.


----------



## alicat (14 Apr 2020)

I'm not going to hunt at random in the Guardian or the Daily Mail.

The clinical frailty scale published by Nice in response to Covid-19 stops at 9. My 87 year old father would be between a four and a five on that scale.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (14 Apr 2020)

Sunak just said we're all in it together. I guess he's too young to remember how that went last time they tried saying it.


----------



## marinyork (14 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I think it is disingenuous to class people with asthma who are currently asking questions / seeking answers as having health anxiety. Health anxiety is a diagnosable mental health condition. Most people are generally just trying to gather information to risk assess their own personal situations.



Coolio, let's do this one properly eh. Not a post I wanted to have to make .

Well, you would say that wouldn't you?

You used the word "hypochondriac" some time ago in jest on this thread, in fact you do so on a regular basis, which I find extremely offensive, but I appreciate people, which includes you, are having a very hard time at the moment and worried and may say a few things here and there. Another person did a decent job of being understanding and diffused it. That's great, that's how this forum should run, I hope that continues.

There is a poster here who has said they have anxiety and I was talking to them. You do actually know this . If any of that stuff applies to anyone else out there then all the better. I have on numerous occasions tried to reassure people about asthma. I've had this in real life actually and that one's a challenge. The old Easter rush on prescriptions eh. The difficulty on the topic of asthma relating to coronavirus on-line and specifically here is where do you draw the line if someone perhaps doesn't want to talk about it in personal matters and wants instead to talk about it in news & current affairs in the bear pit, in the middle of a pandemic. It's a difficult one. It's a difficult one in real life.

Enlightened books I have call it health anxiety . It's not actually called health anxiety in the DSM, your too-clever-by-half-answer isn't actually true and raises a semantic point about language around anxiety. Health anxiety as a word is used in various ways to cover various things. A lot of people use it for health anxiety-like symptoms because they abhor people like you using the other h word all the time. They also use it as in general, anxiety is vastly underdiagnosed in the UK and the best you can often hope for is a GP saying you have 'anxiety'. Or that you get a hint off the GP trying to reassure you about worries about health/bodily sensations/fears. Sometimes GPs use the two 'true' names for health anxiety or aspects of that when talking symptoms, but it's frowned upon as it scares patients or patients come out asking what on earth does that mean? The differential diagnoses listed instead of validating your point (ooh we should reverentially only use it specifically where it's been diagnosed and under no other circumstances even though a lot of people with it will never get a 'specific' diagnosis), says nah mate there's loads of overlap with other anxiety disorders. One enlightened book I have particularly makes the point about how difficult it is to separate health anxiety from other (similar and specific) anxiety conditions.

I disagree with your point fundamentally. I have met many, many people/patients with asthma and in normal times many worry (which isn't always visible) and I think they should talk to their GP (in normal times) and be able to get help for any possible anxiety symptoms associated with it. I want those with asthma, with or without anxiety, to be empowered to have difficult conversations with health professionals. I want more time dedicated to asthma clinics, I want the bar to be raised, I want underdiagnosed asthma to be tackled. I want people in families to talk about it. I want people in the street to talk to other friends about it. If they have worries I want them to talk in private to someone they trust. The problem with asthma as had been said multiple times now asthma is a very diverse condition that millions of people have and as with anxiety there's a large spectrum of people where the more educated with asthma say the sort of frustrations on this thread. There's then complete puzzlement that people are saying 'weird stuff'. The NHS recognises this as the last 2-3 years there is more support around how anxiety interacts with long term health conditions, but we're only just getting started on that one . The imported inhalers that come along a complex supply chain when used properly with free at the point of use or at most paying prescription charges, some of which are very expensive to the NHS are awesome. They are absolutely awesome. Let's get the full benefit and keep everyone safe.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (14 Apr 2020)

NHS England and NHS Improvement (@NHSEngland) tweeted at 2:45 pm on Tue, Apr 14, 2020:
Over the Easter Bank Holiday weekend we delivered over 48 million PPE items to #OurNHSPeople — including 23 million gloves, 8.6 million aprons, 4.5 million eye protectors, 1.9 million surgical masks, 753,000 FFP3 masks, 160,000 fit test solutions, and over 135,000 gowns. https://t.co/5e3FwBpfpM
(
View: https://twitter.com/NHSEngland/status/1250057502470950912?s=09
)

Good effort by NHS England/NHS Improvement - that's a lot of much needed PPE etc distributed.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (14 Apr 2020)

alicat said:


> I'm not going to hunt at random in the Guardian or the Daily Mail.
> 
> The clinical frailty scale published by Nice in response to Covid-19 stops at 9. My 87 year old father would be between a four and a five on that scale.



Your link just takes me to start of this thread. Much as I’d like to get stuck in an infinite ground hog day search...🤔


----------



## mjr (14 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Just a snippet for the people arguing that Sweden's "success" means the lockdown here is unnecessary [...]
> 114 deaths in Sweden taking them over 1000 - they have ~10 million population, and have very roughly half the per capita deaths we do, but many times more than other Scandi countries.


Indeed so. They're doing better than the UK but worse than their neighbours. Interestingly, they aren't doing so much worse than their neighbours in absolute cases, but they are in deaths per capita. Attached two graphs exploring the numbers.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (14 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Once again those pesky Germans are interfering in the UK, this time by sending the UK 60 ventilators _free of charge_.
> 
> I have a sneaky suspicion this won't be well reported in the UK so I thought I'd post it here.



I would still love to know why Germany‘s death rates are staying low in absolute numbers in comparison. Are patients being admitted earlier, is the treatment slightly different to here?

I have loved seeing the way Germany has taken patients from neighbouring countries.


----------



## alicat (14 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Your link just takes me to start of this thread. Much as I’d like to get stuck in an infinite ground hog day search...🤔



You were right and it's fixed now, @YukonBoy . Thanks for pointing it out.


----------



## tom73 (14 Apr 2020)

Nice big figures look good but really still not great maybe last 2 days at best and that'd being kind.
Are gloves single or pairs ? they've a history of saying on but meaning the other.
If they mean NHS as a whole than they won't even notice it.


----------



## BoldonLad (14 Apr 2020)

alicat said:


> I'm not going to hunt at random in the Guardian or the Daily Mail.
> 
> The clinical frailty scale published by Nice in response to Covid-19 stops at 9. My 87 year old father would be between a four and a five on that scale.



I like that one.

I am 72, with existing health conditions, but, on that scale I am a 1 or a 2!


----------



## Julia9054 (14 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> There is a poster here who has said they have anxiety and I was talking to them. You do actually know this .


Do I? I must have missed that part of the conversation. All I saw was someone asking if anyone with asthma on cyclechat had had a shielding letter. And an answer from you discussing health anxiety.
A couple of pages ago I mentioned that I didn’t learn anything new from a Guardian podcast about asthma. Again, a reply from you referencing health anxiety. 
You are obviously a mental health professional and therefore working with people who have mental health issues. This obviously gives you a certain perspective but does not mean that all people with chronic conditions are also suffering with their mental health.


----------



## kingrollo (14 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> On the health anxiety in terms of asthma my advice would be to talk to people about it privately . Health anxiety is something which is being talked about an awful lot at the moment in the volunteering I do. I know some people with very high levels of health anxiety normally and they say they aren't really affected by covid-19, I've met a lot of others with OCD and GAD who are pretty worried and showing health anxiety-like symptoms.
> 
> I know a lot of people with asthma. I've only heard of one that has the letter. This doesn't actually surprise me in the slightest (5.4 million people in the UK have the condition which completely dwarfs the 1.5 million letters - source PSNC), but I know saying that is likely I get punched by you and other people on here who are understandably worried. Emotions/tempers/worries flaring up massively for some of those people. One is still raging against the world, but especially the GP after having not got a letter and trying to register and it being declined by the GP. Despite writing some time later, they are still having a lot of problems with deliveries. Some other people I know have been reassured that they haven't got a letter.
> 
> ...


Well I do suffer with mild depression and anxiety. My son also has asthma and a couple of years back was so ill with flu he was couching up blood and couldn't even swallow water - he lost 2st over 3 weeks - he was 21 at the time.
So yes I worry about him.

Myself I take a whole bunch of inhalers - but a lot this was because although I was a reasonably fit cyclist - I got wheezy on the climbs and my peak flow was down to 300 - with the inhalers I am now on its up to 450 and I feel much better.

My inhalers put me in the high risk group - I don't think that is correct I haven't had an asthma attack since I was about 9 .....56 now. Although I had asthma terrible as a kid - laughing would bring an attack on ! - inhalers were a god send.

So sensibly I think going out for a ride would do more good than harm - but the sheilding advice is to stay indoors.

The ashtma UK website did grade you by inhaler and put me in the top group - but that section has now been taken down - so I don't really know where I am. !!!!


----------



## Julia9054 (14 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well I do suffer with mild depression and anxiety. My son also has asthma and a couple of years back was so ill with flu he was couching up blood and couldn't even swallow water - he lost 2st over 3 weeks - he was 21 at the time.
> So yes I worry about him.
> 
> Myself I take a whole bunch of inhalers - but a lot this was because although I was a reasonably fit cyclist - I got wheezy on the climbs and my peak flow was down to 300 - with the inhalers I am now on its up to 450 and I feel much better.
> ...


Your asthma history sounds similar to mine. I spent more time off school than actually there until about the age of 13 (though my worst time was in my late teens after leaving home where I was hospitalised a couple of times. I was young, stupid and not taking my condition seriously.)
In your situation, I would keep riding as it is pretty easy to avoid other people. Not sure what happened to the big inhaler list! Perhaps have a chat with your GP about your personal circumstances. I found that helpful (she rang me about something else and it seemed like a good opportunity) The shielding letters were initially sent out centrally with a second wave of letters from GPs trawling their records.


----------



## kingrollo (14 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Just a snippet for the people arguing that Sweden's "success" means the lockdown here is unnecessary
> 
> _In an open letter, a group of 22 doctors, virologists and researchers from Sweden’s top hospitals, universities and research institutes pointed write:_
> 
> ...


The Swedish rules on Corona virus

Gatherings over 50 not allowed

Schools and universities closed 

They have a big WFH culture anyway.

The idea that life goes on a normal in Sweden is IMO a false on. There guidance is to far off the UK.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (14 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Indeed so. They're doing better than the UK but worse than their neighbours. Interestingly, they aren't doing so much worse than their neighbours in absolute cases, but they are in deaths per capita. Attached two graphs exploring the numbers.



Case data can't really be used to compare countries. It's as much reflective of testing rates as it is of infection rates.


----------



## kingrollo (14 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Your asthma history sounds similar to mine. I spent more time off school than actually there until about the age of 13 (though my worst time was in my late teens after leaving home where I was hospitalised a couple of times. I was young, stupid and not taking my condition seriously.)
> In your situation, I would keep riding as it is pretty easy to avoid other people. Not sure what happened to the big inhaler list! Perhaps have a chat with your GP about your personal circumstances. I found that helpful (she rang me about something else and it seemed like a good opportunity) The shielding letters were initially sent out centrally with a second wave of letters from GPs trawling their records.


GP said that as I was on tiotrpuim - I was in the high risk group and the sheilding guide lines applied. ....but still no letter.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (14 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I would still love to know why Germany‘s death rates are staying low in absolute numbers in comparison. Are patients being admitted earlier, is the treatment slightly different to here?
> 
> I have loved seeing the way Germany has taken patients from neighbouring countries.



Differences in absolute death rates seem generally to be down to two things:

1) when and how strictly social distancing rules were implemented

2) how extensive a test and trace policy is implemented. 

Germany is way better on (2) than us. I'm not sure about (1), but they probably got that right too. They normally behave very sensibly.


----------



## Unkraut (14 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I would still love to know why Germany‘s death rates are staying low in absolute numbers in comparison.


I don't think you can just compare countries' totals figures. The unknown figure is how many infections are there in the population as a whole, if this were known it might be that the death rate would not differ quite so much from country to country. The totals will also differ according to how many care homes for the elderly have suffered from infection. When this happens it can sadly rapidly raise the total of deaths.


YukonBoy said:


> Are patients being admitted earlier, is the treatment slightly different to here?


Don't think I mentioned it earlier, but in Heidelberg they have introduced the 'Covid taxi service'. Doctors with all the gear on visit patients who have tested positive after about 5 or 6 days, do a blood test from which they can tell if the disease is going to rapidly deteriorate. If this proves to be the case then the patient is admitted to hospital straight away so they can help them overcome it as best as possible. Whether this is also now being done elsewhere I don't know, but I would assume that would be the goal.


----------



## Andy in Germany (14 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I would still love to know why Germany‘s death rates are staying low in absolute numbers in comparison. Are patients being admitted earlier, is the treatment slightly different to here?



I suspect the two are related: by testing anyone with a cough Germany is catching the disease in its early stages in many more cases. This means the patient is admitted sooner and many cases this helps achieve a positive outcome.

This is in keeping with the very proactive approach the German state-run health insurers have towards healthcare: they take the attitude that prevention is cheaper than cure, and it means you don't have to take time off work, so they fund prevention measures to save money.

This is applied elsewhere as well: the reason psychological assistance is funded is that they realise it's cheaper than waiting for hospitals and the emergency services to deal with the fallout.



YukonBoy said:


> I have loved seeing the way Germany has taken patients from neighbouring countries.



I must admit I felt a stab of pride for my adopted country when that was reported.


----------



## kingrollo (14 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Differences in absolute death rates seem generally to be down to two things:
> 
> 1) when and how strictly social distancing rules were implemented
> 
> ...


And we eat more doughnuts in the UK !


----------



## Andy in Germany (14 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Differences in absolute death rates seem generally to be down to two things:
> 
> 1) when and how strictly social distancing rules were implemented
> 
> ...



My impression on (1) is that people take it seriously and are keeping a distance from each other.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (14 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> My impression on (1) is that people take it seriously and are keeping a distance from each other.


In addition to that, my cousins in Germany were already working from home when I was still going to my work in a coffee shop.
Talking to my family in Germany, I noticed too that their shop workers had ppe and shields well before our retail workers here in the UK.


----------



## Saluki (14 Apr 2020)

fossyant said:


> It's not far is it. I could do a decent off road lap, but would involve 'popping out' of the zone very slightly, before I could turn back into it.


Not far but i could do laps, wiggle about through the middle and whatnot. I could probably find a good 20 miles without too much going over my wheel tracks if I made an effort.


----------



## fossyant (14 Apr 2020)

Saluki said:


> Not far but i could do laps, wiggle about through the middle and whatnot. I could probably find a good 20 miles without too much going over my wheel tracks if I made an effort.



As it's Engerland, 2 miles will be fine. Don't buy this EU KM rubbish.


----------



## Unkraut (14 Apr 2020)

fossyant said:


> As it's Engerland, 2 miles will be fine.


Furlongs are even better!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (14 Apr 2020)

A nicer story for a change

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52278746



> A 99-year-old army veteran who has raised more than £3m to help the NHS in the fight against Covid-19 has vowed to keep going even though he has smashed his original £1,000 target.
> 
> Tom Moore aimed to complete 100 laps of his Bedfordshire garden by Thursday, walking with the aid of a frame.


----------



## Wobblers (14 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Ha ha ha - I’m feeling somewhat grotty and feverish at the moment with brain failure. I suspect Donald Trump would be better able to critically appraise it than me at the mo



 I missed this in my last brief visitation. I hope you're feeling much better.

PS: I think you're still rather overestimating Donald Trump...


----------



## Wobblers (14 Apr 2020)

brodiej said:


> I agree the article is rubbish but the leuko in leukoencephalopathy refers to the white matter in the brain
> 
> There are a number of causes of leukoencephalopathy including hypoxia.



Ah-ha. Thank you, I've learned something new today. It had crossed my mind that it might be referring to white cells infiltrating brain tissue: an autoimmune effect, in other words. But that made even less sense! (This is what happens when you've spent too much time revising immune system function... )


----------



## Salty seadog (15 Apr 2020)

As our Mp's claim an extra £10,000 to work from home during the lockdown...... 

Jacinda Ardern and ministers take 20% pay cut in solidarity with those hit by Covid-19

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...vid-19?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (15 Apr 2020)

A good tracking site (Scotland only)

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/


----------



## The Crofted Crest (15 Apr 2020)

Sign up, sign up, sign up!

*Give non-British citizens who are NHS workers automatic citizenship*
Give NHS workers who are EU and other Nationals automatic UK citizenship if they stay and risk their own lives looking after the British people during the COVID crisis.


----------



## MarkF (15 Apr 2020)

Removed my PPE post on the advice of a colleague. We are not allowed to post anything that might cause embarrassment to the Trust, even if it's the truth.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Removed my PPE post on the advice of a colleague. We are not allowed to post anything that might cause embarrassment to the Trust, even if it's the truth.



Id delete that one as well then !


----------



## glasgowcyclist (15 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Id delete that one as well then !




I wouldn't (nor the original). This is not a time to be precious about image above the safety of others and I'd consider MarkF's post as being, effectively, whistleblowing and he should be protected from repercussions.


----------



## flake99please (15 Apr 2020)

£1.25 p/h pay increase for Costco workers during this crisis. £100 pay increase per week for managers. Additional 5 days holiday to be given to management for next financial year


----------



## Yellow Fang (15 Apr 2020)

Why does PPE have to be single use? Can't it be steam cleaned or disinfected?


----------



## Yellow Fang (15 Apr 2020)

Interesting paper here. If it's a fake it's a good one.


----------



## MrGrumpy (15 Apr 2020)

Cleaning would be good, there is a guy at my work , he`s been wearing the same disposable face mask for the last two weeks  . The same guy who thought it was OK to wash his false teeth in the drinks fountain  . Yep standards eh !


----------



## Archie_tect (15 Apr 2020)

Criticism is growing and can't be swept away by the Government's PR machine.


----------



## marinyork (15 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Why does PPE have to be single use? Can't it be steam cleaned or disinfected?



FFP3 masks stop working to full protection when they get moist - this is due to it using electrostatic forces crudely. This is the thing about banging on about the public wearing masks. In Italy there was mass wearing of FFP3 and reusing them day after day hour after hour.

There are also the issues of contamination outlined when putting on/off. The virus will be literally everywhere in a covid-19 ward.

PPE in a specialist hospital in Italy 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...l-where-no-medics-have-been-infected-11966344 (you can watch the video). Infection rates of staff are allegedly zero due to different practices of handling the virus, far more robust PPE and having a testing lab next door.


----------



## Tanis8472 (15 Apr 2020)

There seems to be a large difference between uk flights to China and German ones.
I'm guessing they are flights collecting ppe etc.


----------



## marinyork (15 Apr 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Criticism is growing and can't be swept away by the Government's PR machine.



Not a bit of it. 

Latest government PR https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52289607

Promising all care home residents and workers with symptoms will be tested. That one seems premature.


----------



## tom73 (15 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Why does PPE have to be single use? Can't it be steam cleaned or disinfected?


Would you like to try it ?
Mask's simply stop working after a relative short period of time even in normal situations.
Never mind when in highly infectious situations.
Gowns can be but only the multi use ones. Which we don't have enough of given the increased use at the moment.
By the time you've sent stuff of to sterile services and got them turned round it would take way to long.
They simply are not geared up to the volume being used at the moment.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Not a bit of it.
> 
> Latest government PR https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52289607
> 
> Promising all care home residents and workers with symptoms will be tested. That one seems premature.


I wonder what Hancock's partner makes of his Unkeepable Promise Compulsion Disorder.


----------



## screenman (15 Apr 2020)

I thought that a properly worn mask can help protect the user, but also protect those around them, if you sneeze or cough with a mask on the droplets will not carry far. I believe some countries are not letting you in a shop without a mask on for that reason, certainly my lad in France is getting the message that when released masks will be a must. Happily corrected if I am wrong.


----------



## Saluki (15 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Furlongs are even better!


But shorter. 2 furlong radius is not worth getting changed for.


----------



## Cuchilo (15 Apr 2020)

Lots of planes taking off from Heathrow over the last few days . When i say lots , not as many as normal ! Two American airways and a Virgin Atlantic in the last half hour .


----------



## mjr (15 Apr 2020)

News from rtbf Belgium: care home quarantined in attempt to avoid covid19, more mask debate, French lockdown extended, border controls with France €250 fine for non-essential travel, independent businesses protesting lack of support (pic), tax filing deadlines extended, Liege airport becomes WHO hub (pic), summer holiday industry worried by inconsistent lockdown ends, Austria beginning unlocking, forest fire at Chernobyl, L'Oréal making alcohol gel at Libramont, volunteers harvesting asparagus and beets, Tour de France postponed first time since 1946 (pic)


----------



## roubaixtuesday (15 Apr 2020)

Just had an absolutely mind blowing conversation with a Swedish colleague. 

She's working from home, but only because her daughter is off school sick with a persistent dry cough for the last 10 days. As with the UK, she will only be tested if she is admitted to hospital. 

Her son, meanwhile, rather than being quarantined, is obliged to attend school as he is asymptomatic, and she would be breaking the law if she kept him at home!


----------



## mjr (15 Apr 2020)

screenman said:


> I thought that a properly worn mask can help protect the user, but also protect those around them, if you sneeze or cough with a mask on the droplets will not carry far. I believe some countries are not letting you in a shop without a mask on for that reason, certainly my lad in France is getting the message that when released masks will be a must. Happily corrected if I am wrong.


There are masks and there are masks. Even a fairly simple cloth mask washed daily will reduce the range and transmission of coughed droplets. It's all a question of cost-benefit and getting each type of mask to the places where they help most. I posted one news report of effectiveness by type earlier in this thread at https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5951635


----------



## mjr (15 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Just had an absolutely mind blowing conversation with a Swedish colleague.
> 
> She's working from home, but only because her daughter is off school sick with a persistent dry cough for the last 10 days. As with the UK, she will only be tested if she is admitted to hospital.
> 
> Her son, meanwhile, rather than being quarantined, is obliged to attend school as he is asymptomatic, and she would be breaking the law if she kept him at home!


These sorts of subtle stupidities may well explain the difference between Sweden and its neighbours more than the different approach to lockdown severity. As far as I can tell, in Denmark, such a worker with close contact with an infected person would be instructed to work at home until they get a medical exam and schools are currently closed anyway.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (15 Apr 2020)

Coronavirus: Army veteran Tom Moore finds out he's raised £5m for NHS 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52296313


----------



## Ming the Merciless (15 Apr 2020)

Did my first NHS community response volunteer task today. Shopping for a vulnerable person. Only 1.5 mile trip so easy enough on my Brompton with the T bag.


----------



## screenman (15 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> There are masks and there are masks. Even a fairly simple cloth mask washed daily will reduce the range and transmission of coughed droplets. It's all a question of cost-benefit and getting each type of mask to the places where they help most. I posted one news report of effectiveness by type earlier in this thread at https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5951635



I feel even something like a Buff would help slow down particles. Most people have a scarf or something like that I imagine.


----------



## marinyork (15 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> These sorts of subtle stupidities may well explain the difference between Sweden and its neighbours more than the different approach to lockdown severity. As far as I can tell, in Denmark, such a worker with close contact with an infected person would be instructed to work at home until they get a medical exam and schools are currently closed anyway.



What are the differences in Scandinavian countries for density, housing size, occupancy size, family size and so on?

Locally here, we have a lot of testing in UK terms (very lucky as I found out yesterday) and the virus spread isn't as bad as some other places, worse than others, but the little time local health virologists/ccg/others get on tv they say they are worried about dense housing in particular with multigenerational housing. This is broadly similar things I hear in the West Midlands and in bits of London. 

Not said flippantly, but I wonder what differences countries have for things like care homes?


----------



## mjr (15 Apr 2020)

As expected/feared, Trump has committed the "crime against humanity" (Lancet editor quoted by ITN) of stopping payments to the WHO at a time of global health crisis. https://www.thejournal.ie/trump-who-funding-5074545-Apr2020/


----------



## Unkraut (15 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> As expected/feared, Trump has committed the "crime against humanity" (Lancet editor quoted by ITN) of stopping payments to the WHO at a time of global health crisis...


_According to Trump, the WHO prevented transparency over the Covid-19 outbreak when it appeared in China, *costing other countries crucial time to prepare,* delaying decisions to stop international travel._

Comment is superfluous.

_“Had the WHO done its job to get medical experts into China to objectively assess the situation on the ground and to call out China’s lack of transparency, the outbreak could have been contained at its source with very little death,” he said._

I thought the WHO tried repeatedly to get into China near the beginning of the outbreak but were initially prevented by the Chinese government. That can hardly be blamed on the WHO. How can you assess an situation when you are not allowed into a country.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> _According to Trump, the WHO prevented transparency over the Covid-19 outbreak when it appeared in China, *costing other countries crucial time to prepare,* delaying decisions to stop international travel._
> 
> Comment is superfluous.
> 
> ...



As opposed too "This will be gone by February"


----------



## mjr (15 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> As opposed too "This will be gone by February"


And in February:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raKm5wrpRK4


----------



## roubaixtuesday (15 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Just had an absolutely mind blowing conversation with a Swedish colleague.
> 
> She's working from home, but only because her daughter is off school sick with a persistent dry cough for the last 10 days. As with the UK, she will only be tested if she is admitted to hospital.
> 
> Her son, meanwhile, rather than being quarantined, is obliged to attend school as he is asymptomatic, and she would be breaking the law if she kept him at home!



And, depressingly, 170 new deaths today in Sweden. I guess inflated by Easter reporting, but that's over 1,000 pro rata to the UK and more than the entire epidemic in adjacent Norway.


----------



## tom73 (15 Apr 2020)

Yorkshire hospitals report major gown shortage for days now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-52295131

In other news national plans now been put place to reuse PPE
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52288...ews/health&link_location=live-reporting-story
When the CMO's and CNO's have to even begin to think they need to come up with a plan.
Then clearly Hancock's 3 point plan is not working.


----------



## pawl (15 Apr 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Cleaning would be good, there is a guy at my work , he`s been wearing the same disposable face mask for the last two weeks  . The same guy who thought it was OK to wash his false teeth in the drinks fountain  . Yep standards eh !




Did he first put in a steradent tablet?


----------



## tom73 (15 Apr 2020)

Now Being reported a heavily pregnant nurse has died. Why are we allowing pregnant health workers on the frontline ? 
Maybe the CNO can explain that one. 
That’s if she’s learned how to count that is.


----------



## numbnuts (15 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now Being reported a heavily pregnant nurse has died. Why are we allowing pregnant health workers on the frontline ?
> Maybe the CNO can explain that one.
> That’s if she’s learned how to count that is.


Maybe her wish to work, anybody would have understood if she stopped working.


----------



## Rocky (15 Apr 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Maybe her wish to work, anybody would have understood if she stopped working.


Perhaps she (the nurse) didn’t have a choice. Whatever the reason, it’s hugely sad. There should be a duty of care on NHS employers for their staff.


----------



## numbnuts (15 Apr 2020)

UPDATE
that this lady was on maternity leave !!!


----------



## Rocky (15 Apr 2020)

numbnuts said:


> UPDATE
> that this lady was on maternity leave !!!


Which changes nothing....it’s still a tragedy and the NHS still needs to support staff with proper PPE even though it looks as though this poor woman caught Covid in the community. Too many front line staff have died from infections caught at work.


----------



## numbnuts (15 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Which changes nothing....it’s still a tragedy and the NHS still needs to support staff with proper PPE even though it looks as though this poor woman caught Covid in the community. Too many front line staff have died from infections caught at work.


FFS I didn't say it wasn't a tragedy


----------



## numbnuts (15 Apr 2020)

Maybe if we were not so generous at the start of this out break by sending China 650000 sets of protective clothing without thinking can we replace this if we need them in the future


----------



## SpokeyDokey (15 Apr 2020)

*Mod note:*

Please note: the forum is for members to comment on other member's *posts* and not as to why they may choose to *like* a particular post.

The latter merely invites the type of argument that we do not wish to take place on the forum.

A couple of posts appertaining to this have been deleted from the thread.


----------



## tom73 (15 Apr 2020)

Hancock now has yet another grand plan this time for social care. 
His other 2 plans have not really worked out so lord knows what this will turn out like. 
He has promised every care can quickly get all the PPE they need. 
His plan still can't get PPE to the 200 hospitals so how's this going to work with round 15,000 care homes ?


----------



## Mo1959 (15 Apr 2020)

So we have to stay indoors and stop movement, don’t attend work, etc and it’s just announced that there are going to be several incoming flights of migrant workers to pick fruit. Hope it’s well controlled.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Hancock now has yet another grand plan this time for social care.
> His other 2 plans have not really worked out so lord knows what this will turn out like.
> He has promised every care can quickly get all the PPE they need.
> His plan still can't get PPE to the 200 hospitals so how's this going to work with round 15,000 care homes ?


His last claim was that he never undertook to get tests up to 25,000 a day within 4 weeks. But he did. What he now claims is that it was a target for the end of April, which it wasn't. 

Guardian live feed:
The copy of the press release on the government’s website is worded slightly differently. It says:



> Officials are working to increase the number of tests that can be conducted by Public Health England and the NHS to 25,000 a day.
> The increased capacity is expected to be ready within 4 weeks, with highest-priority cases being tested first.



At the press conference *Matt Hancock,* the health secretary, wrongly claimed that the government had not committed to reaching the 25,000 a day target by today. (See 5.45pm.)


----------



## lane (15 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> So we have to stay indoors and stop movement, don’t attend work, etc and it’s just announced that there are going to be several incoming flights of migrant workers to pick fruit. Hope it’s well controlled.



Not the case don't attend work. Only if you can't do your work at home. Can't do the veg and fruit picking at home. Apparently a 6000% increase in UK workers searching for farm jobs (probably from a low base).

We do and will need fruit and vegetables especially with international supply chains potentially disrupted.


----------



## Tanis8472 (15 Apr 2020)

Ffs


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1250438639751847941


----------



## PK99 (15 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> *Which changes nothing*....it’s still a tragedy and the NHS still needs to support staff with proper PPE even though it looks as though this poor woman caught Covid in the community. Too many front line staff have died from infections caught at work.



Oh for fecks sake, yes it does.

The OP said:_ Why are we allowing pregnant health workers on the frontline ?_ 

The whole point or the OP falls if she was not working.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (15 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Ffs
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1250438639751847941




🤔


----------



## kingrollo (15 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Hancock now has yet another grand plan this time for social care.
> His other 2 plans have not really worked out so lord knows what this will turn out like.
> He has promised every care can quickly get all the PPE they need.
> His plan still can't get PPE to the 200 hospitals so how's this going to work with round 15,000 care homes ?



You forgot that Hancock has promised social care their own badge - at least he might deliver on that one......or not !

A feckin badge - seriously ?


----------



## All uphill (15 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Oh for fecks sake, yes it does.
> 
> The OP said:_ Why are we allowing pregnant health workers on the frontline ?_
> 
> The whole point or the OP falls if she was not working.


Channel 4 news just now said she was working on wards until March 13th.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Apr 2020)

So are we at the peak ? - lets hope so ! - although the figures have usually got worse towards the end of the week ...


----------



## Andy in Germany (15 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> So we have to stay indoors and stop movement, don’t attend work, etc and it’s just announced that there are going to be several incoming flights of migrant workers to pick fruit. *Hope it’s well controlled.*



I suspect they're thinking that as well. Will they be allowed back by their home countries afterwards?


----------



## kingrollo (15 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> I suspect they're thinking that as well. Will they be allowed back by their home countries afterwards?


They need to blame immigration somehow..


----------



## tom73 (15 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> You forgot that Hancock has promised social care their own badge - at least he might deliver on that one......or not !
> 
> A feckin badge - seriously ?


No ordinary badge it’s green


----------



## Cuchilo (15 Apr 2020)

loads of planes left Heathrow today . I think Aviation and Farmers have been told a lot more than we have .


----------



## tom73 (15 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Oh for fecks sake, yes it does.
> 
> The OP said:_ Why are we allowing pregnant health workers on the frontline ?_
> 
> The whole point or the OP falls if she was not working.



What you fail to understand is many are being allowed to work some are even being told they have no choice but carry on working. The NHS was advised over a month ago to take them off the front line. But nothing has changed. The NHS has duty of care and it’s plainly falling flat.

When HCP’s are having to make a choice of treating someone or putting themselves at risk. It’s no longer just a problem for them.

Health care workers are playing a heavy price for the failings of others we’ve lost 56 and counting.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Apr 2020)

*Downgraded advice for asthmatics*

The NHS now say that you would be considered at very high risk if *ALL THREE *of these things apply to you:

You have asthma, *AND*
You are taking certain extra controller medicines as well as a preventer inhaler (for example, you are taking Montelukast, salmeterol or formoterol, or you are on a combination inhaler like Seretide, Fostair, Symbicort, Flutiform, Fobumix, DuoResp Spiromax, Combisal, Sereflo, Sirdupla, Aloflute, AirFluSal, Relvar Ellipta, Fusacomb or Stalpex), *AND*
*You are taking continuous or frequent oral steroids.*

I presume by oral steroids they mean tablets rather than steroid inhalers - if so I only meet two of the criteria 

*Full guidance here *

https://www.asthma.org.uk/advice/triggers/coronavirus-covid-19/shielding-advice-high-risk/#Who


----------



## LarryDuff (15 Apr 2020)

PPE running short in the Royal in Belfast. The masks that the ICU have been measured for are unavailable. Visors and aprons in short supply. NHS staff deserve better.


----------



## mjr (15 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> and it’s just announced that there are going to be several incoming flights of migrant workers to pick fruit. Hope it’s well controlled.


They'll do anything to avoid paying pickers the local market pay rate, won't they?


----------



## kingrollo (15 Apr 2020)

Grim.....

A number of other patients are also dying at home from cardiac arrest. Now in our area the ROLE procedure has changed because of the volume of patients who are dying. We have always had ROLE but what is new is that, because of the volume of [such cases], they are changing the way we do it. You would normally need a GP to confirm that someone has died and why, but due to the sheer volume at the moment that is not practical.
“In the job last week we did three ROLEs in one nursing home in one night. That is almost unheard of.
“This is really significant. Are these deaths at home being recorded in the daily statistics of deaths? No, they’re not at the moment. Is that a way of the numbers [of overall Covid-related deaths] being fudged?


https://www.theguardian.com/society...reaking-people-dying-at-home-help-denied-them


----------



## lane (15 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> *Downgraded advice for asthmatics*
> 
> The NHS now say that you would be considered at very high risk if *ALL THREE *of these things apply to you:
> 
> ...



I don't think this is new at all. As far as I understand there are two levels. The first is act as though you are over 70 i.e be very stringent with social distancing which applies to all with asthma because they are eligible for the flu jab which is one criteria. . Then there were the 1.5 million with more serious issues who were told to SELF ISOLATE for 12 weeks which for those with asthma only included people taking oral steroids. So as far as I can see nothing has changed. 

This is not downgraded advice for those with asthma.

Edit I have seen recently that 10% of people have asthma which is 6 million compared with the 1.5 million self isolated.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> I don't think this is new at all. As far as I understand there are two levels. The first is act as though you are over 70 i.e be very stringent with social distancing which applies to all with asthma because they are eligible for the flu jab which is one criteria. . Then there were the 1.5 million with more serious issues who were told to SELF ISOLATE for 12 weeks which for those with asthma only included people taking oral steroids. So as far as I can see nothing has changed.
> 
> This is not downgraded advice for those with asthma.
> 
> Edit I have seen recently that 10% of people have asthma which is 6 million compared with the 1.5 million self isolated.



I disagree - at the start of the lockdown on the Asthma uk website if stated if you took a certain type of inhaler you were considered in the vulnerable group (tiotopuim was mine) - I also called my GP to verify and she said yes I should self isolate for 12 weeks and would get a sheilding letter in due course.

Also it starts the paragraph with " The NHS now says" - so the advice has changed ("Downgraded" was my words on reflection I suppose it should be "updated advice")

Edit - Its on the NHS website - and it states that the document (Inhaler types = Risk group) was retired on 10/04/2020


----------



## DaveReading (15 Apr 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> loads of planes left Heathrow today . I think Aviation and Farmers have been told a lot more than we have .



Loads ? I think not.


----------



## lane (15 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I disagree - at the start of the lockdown on the Asthma uk website if stated if you took a certain type of inhaler you were considered in the vulnerable group (tiotopuim was mine) - I also called my GP to verify and she said yes I should self isolate for 12 weeks and would get a sheilding letter in due course.
> 
> Also it starts the paragraph with " The NHS now says" - so the advice has changed ("Downgraded" was my words on reflection I suppose it should be "updated advice")
> 
> Edit - Its on the NHS website - and it states that the document (Inhaler types = Risk group) was retired on 10/04/2020



In which case I may be wrong,which is worrying since I have asthma. All I have ever seen is regarding the oral steroids. I have looked on the NHS website and can only find the link to asthma UK website, if you could link to the retired advice I would be interested. Oh well I have at least been following the revised advice correctly. Never been contacted by anyone regarding shielding although that doesn't mean much they missed a lot of people that I do know.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> In which case I may be wrong,which is worrying since I have asthma. All I have ever seen is regarding the oral steroids. I have looked on the NHS website and can only find the link to asthma UK website, if you could link to the retired advice I would be interested. Oh well I have at least been following the revised advice correctly. Never been contacted by anyone regarding shielding although that doesn't mean much they missed a lot of people that I do know.


No I think the initial advice was incorrect - I puff my 3 or 4 inhalers in the morning and that's it. I haven't had an attack for over 40 years .
I would be surprised if I was one the worst asthmatics! 
Back on my phone now - but try and send you the links tommorow !


----------



## mjr (15 Apr 2020)

Vigilantes harrass a nurse for going to work  https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/202...-door-calling-her-a-disgrace-during-lockdown/

Posting poison pen letters isn't a reasonable excuse to leave your home.


----------



## Wobblers (15 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Interesting paper here. If it's a fake it's a good one.



That paper simply states that there were two labs in Wuhan which were researching coronaviruses. There is insufficient evidence to extrapolate from that to conclude that one of these labs is the source of the virus. 

Yes, there have been instances that research labs have been the source of disease outbreaks - the last case of smallpox in the UK was one. That instance was clear - a photographer working at Birmingham University caught smallpox thanks to a defective ventilation system from a research lab investigating the disease. But that illustrates that the index case would have to be in very close proximity to the research lab. We don't know who the index case is, when they caught it and where they were at the time. Given that, it is impossible to make a causal link between the existence of these research labs and the seafood market outbreak. This is not the smoking gun.


----------



## Wobblers (15 Apr 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Maybe if we were not so generous at the start of this out break by sending China 650000 sets of protective clothing without thinking can we replace this if we need them in the future



China had a desperate need for PPE at the time. We responded out of common human decency. This is not something that should need explaining. And it has been well rewarded - China has sent ventilators, PPE and medical teams to the West.


----------



## Yellow Fang (15 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> That paper simply states that there were two labs in Wuhan which were researching coronaviruses. There is insufficient evidence to extrapolate from that to conclude that one of these labs is the source of the virus.
> 
> Yes, there have been instances that research labs have been the source of disease outbreaks - the last case of smallpox in the UK was one. That instance was clear - a photographer working at Birmingham University caught smallpox thanks to a defective ventilation system from a research lab investigating the disease. But that illustrates that the index case would have to be in very close proximity to the research lab. We don't know who the index case is, when they caught it and where they were at the time. Given that, it is impossible to make a causal link between the existence of these research labs and the seafood market outbreak. This is not the smoking gun.



What would you consider a smoking gun? I would consider it a smoking gun if there was no intermediary species between bats and humans.


----------



## mjr (15 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> China had a desperate need for PPE at the time. We responded out of common human decency. This is not something that should need explaining. And it has been well rewarded - China has sent ventilators, PPE and medical teams to the West.


I think we responded out of self-interest, hoping it would enable containment and avoid it reaching us this year.


----------



## slowmotion (15 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> I think we responded out of self-interest, hoping it would enable containment and avoid it reaching us this year.


Who cares what the motive was as long as it did something to help their patients? If you look at who funds the WHO you will see that the UK is relatively generous. I'm sure that can be spun into a hateful imperialist conspiracy too.


----------



## lane (16 Apr 2020)

Two countries that have apparently handled the virus very well and we could learn from them:

Greece
Rwanda


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 Apr 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52303859

Hats off to Capt Moore - £10m and rising


----------



## mjr (16 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Who cares what the motive was as long as it did something to help their patients? If you look at who funds the WHO you will see that the UK is relatively generous. I'm sure that can be spun into a hateful imperialist conspiracy too.


Ending "too" implies that I spun the donation of PPE to China that way. I did not. I just think the UK government motive was more head than heart.

I fully support it. It was a good move for everyone.


----------



## slowmotion (16 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Ending "too" implies that I spun the donation of PPE to China that way. I did not. I just think the UK government motive was more head than heart.
> 
> I fully support it. It was a good move for everyone.


We probably need heads at least as much as hearts right now.


----------



## Rezillo (16 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> What would you consider a smoking gun? I would consider it a smoking gun if there was no intermediary species between bats and humans.



If you had googled the report‘s principal author before posting a link to it, you would have found that Botao Xiao withdrew the report on the grounds that it "was not supported by direct proofs".


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 Apr 2020)

Tales from the care homes -

Two elderly women suffering from dementia were found wandering the Covid wards at a Glasgow hospital at the weekend. Eventually staff worked out who they were - residents of a nearby care home. Management of the care home said they must have wandered off. Staff say the two women had Covid symptoms and were driven by the manager and a care assistant to the hospital and dumped outside. 

I've mentioned before that my step-son works in a care home. I've seen WhatsApp messages talking about the sheer incompetence of care home management and the utter chaos going on. These are supposedly Council run and supervised facilities but it's clear the standards are appalling. Little wonder that Sturgeon is having to address the more public concerns but this is a sector that will really need shaken up once this is over Completely unsurprising to see the death toll is so high.


----------



## marinyork (16 Apr 2020)

The pharmacy picture

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52304690


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 Apr 2020)

There are two things that affect the spread of Covid 19

1) The density of the population
2) The density of the population.

For example - 
View: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-52304832/coronavirus-michigan-protesters-defy-stay-at-home-order


----------



## Andy in Germany (16 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> There are two things that affect the spread of Covid 19
> 
> 1) The density of the population
> 2) The density of the population.
> ...




You mean it's worse when people are too dense to follow the social distancing regulations?


----------



## Andy in Germany (16 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Tales from the care homes -
> 
> Two elderly women suffering from dementia were found wandering the Covid wards at a Glasgow hospital at the weekend. Eventually staff worked out who they were - residents of a nearby care home. Management of the care home said they must have wandered off. Staff say the two women had Covid symptoms and were driven by the manager and a care assistant to the hospital and dumped outside.
> 
> I've mentioned before that my step-son works in a care home. I've seen WhatsApp messages talking about the sheer incompetence of care home management and the utter chaos going on. These are supposedly Council run and supervised facilities but it's clear the standards are appalling. Little wonder that Sturgeon is having to address the more public concerns but this is a sector that will really need shaken up once this is over Completely unsurprising to see the death toll is so high.



I think that rather like protected workshops, a lot depends on the individual organisation. They can be well run; my grandmother lived until she was 103 in a spotless council run care home in Yorkshire with very kind, dedicated staff, who made her the mother of all cakes every birthday without fail. Equally I've seen private homes where people were basically dumped in a char and left to fend for themselves the rest of the day.

Unfortunately I think that for the authorities they can become a place to dump people as cheaply as possible, and when that becomes the attitude then you end up with all kinds of problems.

I've noticed here that there's a trend to make sure that people with disabilities live and work in places run by different organisations, which I think is an excellent idea because it means both organisations keep an eye on each other.


----------



## DaveReading (16 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> There are two things that affect the spread of Covid 19
> 
> 1) The density of the population
> 2) The denseness of the population.



FTFY - I know, it doesn't work as well.


----------



## newfhouse (16 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> There are two things that affect the spread of Covid 19
> 
> 1) The density of the population
> 2) The density of the population.
> ...



It was funny on April 1st. Now, not so much.


----------



## Unkraut (16 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> You mean it's worse when people are too dense to follow the social distancing regulations?


I suppose we ought to be careful criticising a country we have never lived in. But I simply do not understand Americans. There is a clear obsession with the rights of the individual and as little government as possible. Paranoia about any restriction on gun ownership as though this would lead to an unarmed population ending up living in a new Soviet Union. (I've read more than one actually say that.)

In this instance there is argument about whether the US government at federal of state level actually has the right to enforce social distancing, and close down whole sectors of the economy. Some in the UK are like this too - they don't or won't get it that this is for a medical emergency and that such a lockdown is _temporary_. Note the obsession with the death level which misses the point. The description of a society being under 'house arrest'. That would imply the population as a whole is guilty of a crime, but isn't the real crime ignoring the restrictions running the risk of spreading infection which in turn overwhelms the healthcare system, leading to loss of life ...

There are those arguing people should not accept the government financial payments because it might give the government control over you later.

It is perfectly legitimate to argue for the restrictions being eased more quickly to avoid economic damage that in turn will lead to massive health problems in the population months and years down the road, but not for outright rebellion against lawful government attempts to deal with the virus, and adults shouldn't do this in word or deed thereby setting a bad example for the 'young people of today'.

That's better.


----------



## kingrollo (16 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I suppose we ought to be careful criticising a country we have never lived in. But I simply do not understand Americans. There is a clear obsession with the rights of the individual and as little government as possible. Paranoia about any restriction on gun ownership as though this would lead to an unarmed population ending up living in a new Soviet Union. (I've read more than one actually say that.)
> 
> In this instance there is argument about whether the US government at federal of state level actually has the right to enforce social distancing, and close down whole sectors of the economy. Some in the UK are like this too - they don't or won't get it that this is for a medical emergency and that such a lockdown is _temporary_. Note the obsession with the death level which misses the point. The description of a society being under 'house arrest'. That would imply the population as a whole is guilty of a crime, but isn't the real crime ignoring the restrictions running the risk of spreading infection which in turn overwhelms the healthcare system, leading to loss of life ...
> 
> ...



Its self regulation - with only a light touch from the state. Which sounds great but doesn't have much of a track record - you want to stay healthy - buy health insurance - you don't want covid 19 - practice social distancing

I had a similar argument about people clocking excessive cycling miles under lockdown - IMO if they wanted it limit it to 1 hour or 2 hours - they should have bloody well said so - 1 reply I got was "They've trusted us to sensible" - its hands on v hands off - "there enough PPE - if the hospitals use it incorrectly thats down to them"


----------



## Tanis8472 (16 Apr 2020)

Dear god


View: https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1250538650221391875


----------



## kingrollo (16 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Dear god
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1250538650221391875




To be honest although I despise both of them - I think things improved when Johnson was taken out of the picture


----------



## Levo-Lon (16 Apr 2020)

8 say no
5 don't know

That must be the labour and SNP voters then


----------



## Rezillo (16 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I've seen WhatsApp messages talking about the sheer incompetence of care home management and the utter chaos going on. These are supposedly Council run and supervised facilities but it's clear the standards are appalling.



As someone who had two in-laws in care homes until their deaths in recent years, all I can say is that council-run carehomes are as rare as hen's teeth locally and have been for years. They are all privately-run here in Suffolk as far as I can tell. In the absence of council-owned homes, the council can pay the fees provided you meet eligibility criteria but this will not get people into the better ones.

The better ones cost a fortune and the only affordable ones are those that have their origins in the sale of homes by councils (this took place years ago) to independent trusts with a strong social ethic. Even these have then gone through a series of mergers and private sector takeovers to become significant business players in their own right. Places in these establishments are difficult to get. We ended up with my father-in-law in a BUPA one which ate through his savings and house proceeds but we really had no choice.


----------



## lane (16 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I suppose we ought to be careful criticising a country we have never lived in. But I simply do not understand Americans. There is a clear obsession with the rights of the individual and as little government as possible. Paranoia about any restriction on gun ownership as though this would lead to an unarmed population ending up living in a new Soviet Union. (I've read more than one actually say that.)
> 
> In this instance there is argument about whether the US government at federal of state level actually has the right to enforce social distancing, and close down whole sectors of the economy. Some in the UK are like this too - they don't or won't get it that this is for a medical emergency and that such a lockdown is _temporary_. Note the obsession with the death level which misses the point. The description of a society being under 'house arrest'. That would imply the population as a whole is guilty of a crime, but isn't the real crime ignoring the restrictions running the risk of spreading infection which in turn overwhelms the healthcare system, leading to loss of life ...
> 
> ...



If you want to understand it better then watch "Vice" which is on Amazon prime at the moment and no doubt available elsewhere. It's about Dick Cheney Vice president to George W. But also shows you how the average US citizen has Brainwashed by the far right.


----------



## kingrollo (16 Apr 2020)

Rezillo said:


> As someone who had two in-laws in care homes until their deaths in recent years, all I can say is that council-run carehomes are as rare as hen's teeth locally and have been for years. They are all privately-run here in Suffolk as far as I can tell. In the absence of council-owned homes, the council can pay the fees provided you meet eligibility criteria but this will not get people into the better ones.
> 
> The better ones cost a fortune and the only affordable ones are those that have their origins in the sale of homes by councils (this took place years ago) to independent trusts with a strong social ethic. Even these have then gone through a series of mergers and private sector takeovers to become significant business players in their own right. Places in these establishments are difficult to get. We ended up with my father-in-law in a BUPA one which ate through his savings and house proceeds but we really had no choice.



My experience as well - mom had to use house to pay for care home was close on £1k pw we tried a few some even at that price some were rubbish (patient left on floor after falls - some just sedated 24/7) - eventually we found one that was ok - but even that went bust - sadly mom had died by then.


----------



## mjr (16 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> sheer incompetence of care home management and the utter chaos going on. These are supposedly Council run and supervised facilities but it's clear the standards are appalling. Little wonder that Sturgeon is having to address the more public concerns but this is a sector that will really need shaken up once this is over Completely unsurprising to see the death toll is so high.


The death toll seems to be bad in care homes across Europe. I posted a few days earlier about Belgium sending the army into some. France has some on total quarantine, behaving like old isolation hospitals in the hope of keeping the virus out. Still the death tolls seem high.

I'm sure there are problems but is how they're run actually significant in how hard covid hits care homes?


----------



## lane (16 Apr 2020)

How close are we to 100,000 tests a day promised and when was that supposed to happen? Are the media going to hold them to account for this?


----------



## Tanis8472 (16 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> 8 say no
> 5 don't know
> 
> That must be the labour and SNP voters then



That'll be the intelligent ones then 👍


----------



## mjr (16 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> How close are we to 100,000 tests a day promised and when was that supposed to happen? Are the media going to hold them to account for this?


The BBC had the Shadow Health Minister on this morning asking about it so I suspect so.


----------



## Tanis8472 (16 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> How close are we to 100,000 tests a day promised and when was that supposed to happen? Are the media going to hold them to account for this?


No


----------



## kingrollo (16 Apr 2020)

Read that piece I posted from the guardian - lots of people who CA in ambulance are not being re sussed (even though they would normally) - these aren't counted as hospital deaths - also if people arrive in to poor health - they are literally sent home to die - again they don't go on hospital stats.
The article tells a story of nurse being restrained as she wanted to perform CPR on a patient.

Every bit as bad as the secenes we were shown in Italy a couple of weeks back - but are now absent from uk newsreels.....


----------



## kingrollo (16 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> How close are we to 100,000 tests a day promised and when was that supposed to happen? Are the media going to hold them to account for this?



Self test in an app - on symptoms alone (Tick !) [thats sarcasm from me not fact.......yet]


----------



## lane (16 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Read that piece I posted from the guardian - lots of people who CA in ambulance are not being re sussed (even though they would normally) - these aren't counted as hospital deaths - also if people arrive in to poor health - they are literally sent home to die - again they don't go on hospital stats.
> The article tells a story of nurse being restrained as she wanted to perform CPR on a patient.
> 
> Every bit as bad as the secenes we were shown in Italy a couple of weeks back - but are now absent from uk newsreels.....



Yes I read that. It's odd that on the news at the time Italy looked a lot worse than UK looks on the news now or than it seems living day to day. Not sure why that is? Was it because Italy was concentrated in a small area of the country or we just don't realise how bad it is here if not directly involved?


----------



## marinyork (16 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> How close are we to 100,000 tests a day promised and when was that supposed to happen? Are the media going to hold them to account for this?



I don't think the media will hold them to account, because it's impossible to.

If you look at the testing in some Italian regions it's likely to be repeated here. I have very serious doubts about the UK getting up to a sustained average of 100,000 a day any time soon. I'm not saying it won't happen, just a lot of doubts. Italy's doing about three times as many tests as the UK when at one bit we were level with them and arguably ahead (early on). Nothing like 100,000 a day. This is because there's a lack of infrastructure in many regions, a real penny pinching and lack of tests. Some regions are doing barely any tests.

When my father got admitted and then later explained about the swab tests, it's just sheer damn frigging luck. He was 2 mins away from a lab which had dibs on a geographic area and generous testing capacity of about 1000 a day, which still isn't that big a deal btw as a local new prog was bragging about yesterday I think it was, and there will be variations of some UK areas doing 5 times fewer testing than other areas. It's ridiculous. Wonder if the UK will publish testing figures by ethnicity .

It's starting to look like Veneto's testing regime where they hogged a lot of capacity in Italy has paid off. 200,000 + tests, getting up to UK levels, for a population of 5 mil. Fairly low death figures, despite having documented early outbreaks.


----------



## marinyork (16 Apr 2020)

P.S. the 100,000 figure from Hancock comes from the national biosample centre in milton keynes which supposedly can do 25,000, one that will open in cheshire (date unknown) and one in glasglow. Presumbly that's 75,000 and between everywhere else it probably is realistic to get the remaining 25,000.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...tre-only-conducting-1500-tests-a-day-11971991


----------



## kingrollo (16 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> P.S. the 100,000 figure from Hancock comes from the national biosample centre in milton keynes which supposedly can do 25,000, one that will open in cheshire (date unknown) and one in glasglow. Presumbly that's 75,000 and between everywhere else it probably is realistic to get the remaining 25,000.
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...tre-only-conducting-1500-tests-a-day-11971991



of course testing is only part of the equation - those results - have to get back to hospitals/patients - and acted upon


----------



## marinyork (16 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> of course testing is only part of the equation - those results - have to get back to hospitals/patients - and acted upon



Sticking buds up peoples' noses for long periods of time, by skilled nose pokers, and then driving them around the country at high speed is amongst the reasons I don't want to rely too much on PCR in it's _current _format. It's utterly ludicrous, but at the very early stages of the virus Jan (when it was adapted for CV-19) and february obviously invaluable and the only tool. 

Veneto's disappeared off into the distance and is doing the sort of blood test I believe my father had. I'm told by Italian media it's for health workers and care home residents/workers. I bet we do this stuff, but it'll be a month or two away.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> The death toll seems to be bad in care homes across Europe. I posted a few days earlier about Belgium sending the army into some. France has some on total quarantine, behaving like old isolation hospitals in the hope of keeping the virus out. Still the death tolls seem high.
> 
> I'm sure there are problems but is how they're run actually significant in how hard covid hits care homes?


From posts from care workers on other boards and WhatsApp group messages I've seen, there seems to be an almost manic desperation from some managements to ""Keep Calm and Carry On", driven to a large degree by not wanting to deter new customers. Pressure has been put on Drs not to record Covid 19 as cause of death, residents with symptoms being dumped on hospitals (so they'll die there and not in the Care Home), staff being pressurised and blackmailed into coming into work when they're vulnerable or showing symptoms, PPE being downplayed for appearances sakes and one care home even allowing normal visits right up until April 8th when the Police were called. They're businesses, not healthcare establishments.


----------



## marinyork (16 Apr 2020)

Theories about a maximum spread of the coronavirus of 15% such as cruise ships and a german town is blown out of the water.

A third of the crew of a french military ship catch this coronavirus

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...rier-crew-catch-coronavirus-charles-de-gaulle

And that's excluding results for the other 30% of tests apparently.


----------



## mjr (16 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Read that piece I posted from the guardian - lots of people who CA in ambulance are not being re sussed (even though they would normally) - these aren't counted as hospital deaths - also if people arrive in to poor health - they are literally sent home to die - again they don't go on hospital stats.
> The article tells a story of nurse being restrained as she wanted to perform CPR on a patient.


How about reposting the link if you want more people to read it, rather than make everyone spend time at the very least clicking your username, then Postings, then reading back through dozens? At last you don't make your profile private so people don't have to resort to the site search.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...reaking-people-dying-at-home-help-denied-them
It's quoted testimony from "a paramedic with the West Midlands Ambulance Service". It's arguably justifiable for the journalist to report it as a possible "canary", but not really in line with the NUJ code because it's not verified as accurate. Is there any second source saying the same yet?


----------



## DCLane (16 Apr 2020)

What's not being considered here is the rehabilitation; patients need up to 3 weeks intensive care and then a significant period longer in rehab.

SWMBO's hospital are preparing for this. She's not been needed in intensive care so is helping prepare for rehab patients that will arrive in the next week. New wards have been created in what is a small town hospital in South Yorkshire. Most of those will have been tube-fed if they've been on a ventilator/oxygen so, as a Dietitian, she's going to be busy since they'll need to continue the tube-feeding process and be slowly brought off as part of rehabilitation.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (16 Apr 2020)

Extra ventilators coming:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52309294


----------



## Rocky (16 Apr 2020)

The Prof has just received the first consignment of 100 oximeters (to measure oxygen saturation of blood) - a personal donation from a Chinese doctor and there are more to come. There's a huge shortage of these in Oxfordshire and surrounding areas - they'll be used to help monitor Covid patients to see if they need to be admitted to hospital. There are many other examples of individual generosity from Chinese professionals - it's quite touching to see this solidarity.


----------



## Richard A Thackeray (16 Apr 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52305053

Edit: US job losses hit 20m since March..


----------



## kingrollo (16 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The Prof has just received the first consignment of 100 oximeters (to measure oxygen saturation of blood) - a personal donation from a Chinese doctor and there are more to come. There's a huge shortage of these in Oxfordshire and surrounding areas - they'll be used to help monitor Covid patients to see if they need to be admitted to hospital. There are many other examples of individual generosity from Chinese professionals - it's quite touching to see this solidarity.


Steady on old chap - we need man competitive against another man, cut throat , back stabbing - competitiveness , exploitation is where it's at ..

None of this love thy neighbour- solidarity crap !!!


----------



## AndyRM (16 Apr 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/MyshkinFool/status/1250699004096151553?s=19


----------



## kingrollo (16 Apr 2020)

Ok - so I joked earlier that we could hit the 100,000 testing target by letting people self diagnose via the app.

....well a few hours later ....it's not a joke anymore ! (Ok not hitting the target but self diagnosis via an app is an option)


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (16 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Steady on old chap - we need man competitive against another man, cut throat , back stabbing - competitiveness , exploitation is where it's at ..
> 
> None of this love thy neighbour- solidarity crap !!!



A bit like this you mean? 



numbnuts said:


> Maybe if we were not so generous at the start of this out break by sending China 650000 sets of protective clothing without thinking can we replace this if we need them in the future



Remind me where the oximeters have come from again?


----------



## Mugshot (16 Apr 2020)

Now this reminds me of a book I read.


----------



## tom73 (16 Apr 2020)

Guess the guy at the back was eliminated later. Either that or moved to the PPE dept. 
Both have end in same result of never being seen again.


----------



## Mugshot (16 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Guess the guy at the back was eliminated later. Either that or moved to the PPE dept.
> Both have end in same result of never being seen again.


There's a lot of bowed heads in there, I'm guesing the war isn't going so well.


----------



## slowmotion (16 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The Prof has just received the first consignment of 100 oximeters (to measure oxygen saturation of blood) - a personal donation from a Chinese doctor and there are more to come. There's a huge shortage of these in Oxfordshire and surrounding areas - they'll be used to help monitor Covid patients to see if they need to be admitted to hospital. There are many other examples of individual generosity from Chinese professionals - it's quite touching to see this solidarity.



Why didn't they just buy the oximeters on Amazon? The £18 one I got gives exactly the same readings as the ones they use in the Cardiology Department at Charing Cross Hospital. They are still available.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Apr 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Now this reminds me of a book I read.
> 
> View attachment 515507



Mr Hancock in hot water


----------



## tom73 (16 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Mr Hancock in hot water


That's the self destruct


----------



## Rocky (16 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Why didn't they just buy the oximeters on Amazon? The £18 one I got gives exactly the same readings as the ones they use in the Cardiology Department at Charing Cross Hospital. They are still available.


Because the ones that are available (and I’ve just checked) now cost around £40-50 each. I got a similar one for £12 a month ago. Indeed, the cheaper ones simply aren’t available now (all with longish delivery times). There’ll be about 500 of them coming, free gratis.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (16 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Mr Hancock in hot water


Or he provides the hot air to heat the water....


----------



## tom73 (16 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Or he provides the hot air to heat the water....


He'd even get that wrong


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> He'd even get that wrong



A 100,000 hair dryers a day by mid May.


----------



## tom73 (16 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> A 100,000 hair dryers a day by mid May.


They'd probability be the wrong voltage and arrive with the wrong plug.


----------



## BoldonLad (16 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> So we have to stay indoors and stop movement, don’t attend work, etc and it’s just announced that there are going to be several incoming flights of migrant workers to pick fruit. Hope it’s well controlled.


Why do we need to fly people in, we have tens of thousands sitting at home?


----------



## BoldonLad (16 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Oh for fecks sake, yes it does.
> 
> The OP said:_ Why are we allowing pregnant health workers on the frontline ?_
> 
> The whole point or the OP falls if she was not working.


Quite.


----------



## tom73 (16 Apr 2020)

Just seen on the news a report about a daughter who was able to go to hospital and say goodbye to her dad who died of Covid.
She provided she used PPE. She bought her own of the internet.
She was shocked to see her's was better than the staff. One Nurse even asked her which site she got them from.
This has gone past a joke.


----------



## Rocky (16 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Why do we need to fly people in, we have tens of thousands sitting at home?


I think it’s like a lot of the other problems.....there is sufficient PPE across the country but it’s just in the wrong place. I’m beginning to think that we need the army to take over the logistics of this.


----------



## Mo1959 (16 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Why do we need to fly people in, we have tens of thousands sitting at home?


Just reading a conversation on Facebook about it and the general consensus is that the uk workforce now appear to think this is too menial for them! You would think if they are desperate for some income they would consider anything.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (16 Apr 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Why do we need to fly people in, we have tens of thousands sitting at home?



From a pool of about 17.4 million it’s amazing that there’s nobody clamouring to get their jobs back.


----------



## tom73 (16 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think it’s like a lot of the other problems.....there is sufficient PPE across the country but it’s just in the wrong place. I’m beginning to think that we need the army to take over the logistics of this.


What and admit they need help it's the one plan Hancock's appears not to have.


----------



## kingrollo (16 Apr 2020)

Badge - Check
App - Check
Tests - Some
Vaccine - None


----------



## slowmotion (16 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> What and admit they need help it's the one plan Hancock's appears not to have.


I don't think it's politicians who procure equipment for the NHS. Isn't it the NHS or the Department of Health? Can somebody tell us?


----------



## kingrollo (16 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I don't think it's politicians who procure equipment for the NHS. Isn't it the NHS or the Department of Health? Can somebody tell us?



A bit like saying its not politicians who fight wars its soldiers.

In the NHS, governments pass legislation which creates a framework that hospitals operate in - broadly speaking hospitals have income (consulations, Surgery, etc) - and they have outgoings (Drugs, equipment, wages,) - Hospitals were seen as good if they could show a surplus - and poor (special measures) if they racked a defict.

Like most organisations they run stock control on JIT - just as the surge in bog roll sales lead to shortages - then the surge in PPE use - has created shortages - I assume these shortages got so severe that the govt did step in to 'help'


----------



## slowmotion (16 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> A bit like saying its not politicians who fight wars its soldiers.
> 
> In the NHS, governments pass legislation which creates a framework that hospitals operate in - broadly speaking hospitals have income (consulations, Surgery, etc) - and they have outgoings (Drugs, equipment, wages,) - Hospitals were seen as good if they could show a surplus - and poor (special measures) if they racked a defict.
> 
> Like most organisations they run stock control on JIT - just as the surge in bog roll sales lead to shortages - then the surge in PPE use - has created shortages - I assume these shortages got so severe that the govt did step in to 'help'



I think that NHS Supply Chain deals with procurement. 

https://www.supplychain.nhs.uk/about-us/

I imagine that the politicians just hand over money and don't have any hands-on involvement. I won't bother getting into an argument about whether NHS Supply Chain has been given enough money because I don't know.


----------



## tom73 (16 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I don't think it's politicians who procure equipment for the NHS. Isn't it the NHS or the Department of Health? Can somebody tell us?


It was politicians who messed up NHS logistics when Blair offloaded it to the private sector. 
In normal times hospitals order equipment it's true but in the current situation the government are overseeing supply. 
Hence why Hancock came out with his new 3 part plan. 
That appears to hair turned into Look, Duck and Vanish.


----------



## Tanis8472 (16 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> A bit like saying its not politicians who fight wars its soldiers.
> 
> In the NHS, governments pass legislation which creates a framework that hospitals operate in - broadly speaking hospitals have income (consulations, Surgery, etc) - and they have outgoings (Drugs, equipment, wages,) - Hospitals were seen as good if they could show a surplus - and poor (special measures) if they racked a defict.
> 
> Like most organisations they run stock control on JIT - just as the surge in bog roll sales lead to shortages - then the surge in PPE use - has created shortages - I assume these shortages got so severe that the govt did step in to 'help'



We have to hide some ppe that comes in so that we can supply care homes etc. 
Some 'personal ' shoppers are trying to buy cases of 1000 gloves. daffodils.


----------



## lane (16 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just reading a conversation on Facebook about it and the general consensus is that the uk workforce now appear to think this is too menial for them! You would think if they are desperate for some income they would consider anything.



I posted earlier UK workers searching for farm work up 6,000%


----------



## Andy in Germany (16 Apr 2020)

Channel 4 documentary comparing the UK's response to Germany:


----------



## Mo1959 (16 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> I posted earlier UK workers searching for farm work up 6,000%


Funny you should say that. I’ve just read a comment from a guy saying he knows of at least ten people that have applied but not even received a reply. Maybe they prefer foreign workers? Faster, more skilled?


----------



## Andy in Germany (16 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> They'd probability be the wrong voltage and arrive with the wrong plug.



Oh, no, they'll be superior Bwitish plugs and non of that European nonsense.




Mo1959 said:


> Just reading a conversation on Facebook about it and the general consensus is that the uk workforce now appear to think this is too menial for them! You would think if they are desperate for some income they would consider anything.



That may be the Farcebook consensus but is it accurate? There could be other issues. If I was looking for work in central Birmingham for example, fruit picking wouldn't be a likely option no matter how desperate I was.

We also need to remember that the people being accused of not really looking for work looking for work will include a number who have been declared "fit for work" by someone ticking a box, but who are unable to stand, squat or move in the way required, or to stay in one place for the full eight hours needed et c, et c...


----------



## PK99 (16 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Oh, no, they'll be superior Bwitish plugs and non of that European nonsense.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Back in the day, London East Enders used to go on Hop Picking or Fruit Picking working holidays in Kent


----------



## tom73 (16 Apr 2020)

DCLane said:


> What's not being considered here is the rehabilitation; patients need up to 3 weeks intensive care and then a significant period longer in rehab.
> 
> SWMBO's hospital are preparing for this. She's not been needed in intensive care so is helping prepare for rehab patients that will arrive in the next week. New wards have been created in what is a small town hospital in South Yorkshire. Most of those will have been tube-fed if they've been on a ventilator/oxygen so, as a Dietitian, she's going to be busy since they'll need to continue the tube-feeding process and be slowly brought off as part of rehabilitation.


Would that be the one beginning with a M? 
If so makes sense as it’s all set up for rehab already


----------



## kingrollo (16 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Channel 4 documentary comparing the UK's response to Germany:




Fair comment but no way am I paying an extra £6 a month in tax !


----------



## DCLane (16 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Would that be the one beginning with a M?
> If so makes sense as it’s all set up for rehab already



Nope - just up the road from there towards the M1 though 
Hers specialises in stroke/neurology rehab.


----------



## tom73 (16 Apr 2020)

Just been talking to a nursing friend of ours her husband is a ODP. He’s now been moved to work in ICU. Everyone is totally terrified. They just don’t have enough PPE. 
The gowns they have are backless so they are having to wear aprons backwards to try and cover the gap.
He was asked to clean out the clinical waste in the air lock. That’s the area staff remove PPE between the red zone and outside world.
so a highly infectious area. He was told he was ok to wear just gloves and apron.


----------



## Tanis8472 (16 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just been talking to a nursing friend of ours her husband is a ODP. He’s now been moved to work in ICU. Everyone is totally terrified. They just don’t have enough PPE.
> The gowns they have are backless so they are having to wear aprons backwards to try and cover the gap.
> He was asked to clean out the clinical waste in the air lock. That’s the area staff remove PPE between the red zone and outside world.
> so a highly infectious area. He was told he was ok to wear just gloves and apron.



Same as swmbo aunt who now has it.


----------



## Profpointy (16 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm confused. Is it the doctors that wear the masks....or the doctor's enemies?
> 
> View attachment 514230



Is it too geeky to enquire if the picture is from Earthsock?


----------



## Rusty Nails (16 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Fair comment but no way am I paying an extra £6 a month in tax !



You will pay what it is decided you have to pay! Unless you falsify your earnings.


----------



## mjr (16 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Funny you should say that. I’ve just read a comment from a guy saying he knows of at least ten people that have applied but not even received a reply. Maybe they prefer foreign workers? Faster, more skilled?


Or is it that imported workers with less knowledge of UK employment law are still willing to work for minimum wage but can be charged over the odds by their employer for effectively-tied accommodation, food and travel? Some firms say it's not tied and you only have to be at the pick-up point for transfer to the day's work fields at about 6am - which just happens to be in the middle of bleeding nowhere yet right next to a hostel they have a hand in.


----------



## mjr (16 Apr 2020)

Mugshot said:


> There's a lot of bowed heads in there, I'm guesing the war isn't going so well.


Of course the war isn't going so well. It's been going on for a long time. We have always been at war with Eastasia.


----------



## Archie_tect (16 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Back in the day, London East Enders used to go on Hop Picking or Fruit Picking working holidays in Kent


As students we had the chance of as much potato picking as we wanted in Fife and Tayside.... back breaking but good money even then.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (17 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> From a pool of about 17.4 million it’s amazing that there’s nobody clamouring to get their jobs back.


You know, I have actually looked into this - us bloody foreigners would do anything for work, innit  because I'm currently furlong from my main job.
The site I looked at, though, stated that they were fully staffed till the end of May.
None of the Scottish farms advertising were near me.
Accommodation would be shared: what would be the point of me having escaped the virus till now, then go and look for it??
Another thing, the offers were for the duration of 3/4 months: well, I was hoping my employer would reinvent his business model well before that timeline, so we can start trading again.


----------



## Accy cyclist (17 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Maybe they prefer foreign workers? Faster, more skilled?


Easier to exploit?


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

Antibody test validated, production starts on 5 million of them. Report in French: https://www.rtbf.be/info/regions/li...lides-zentech-lance-la-production?id=10483496

"The Liege company ZenTech is going to start its production of Covid19 tests. Specialists in immune system illness test kits, ZenTech have, since the start of April, developed a serological test permitting fast detection of the presence or not of antibodies against Covid19. The process must still be validated by the medical world. 500 of these tests have therefore been put at the disposal of Liege CHU [ed: University Hospital Centre - if I recall correctly] and after rigorous analysis, the results are very positive.

"5 million tests

" 'The challenge being both urgent and major, we will support being able to respond as quickly as possible to essential needs of care institutions and organisations in matters of screening their personnel and patients in Belgium', underlined Jean-Claude Havaux, President-Founder of ZenTech, 'that allows us not to be subject to embargoes or delivery delays from customs restrictions.'

" It will be the Ateliers Jean Del’Cour, a specialist Liege business that occupies itself with the conditioning of these test kits. A conditioning chain will be installed on site.

" Production was launched this Thursday morning. Over the next four weeks, ZenTech should achieve the rate of a million tests per month with the objective 'to manufacture 5 million serological fast tests. And we apply ourselves at the moment to build our stock of raw materials to be able to produce the extra quantities which will be needed for the rest' assures Jean-Claude Havaux.

" The test doesn't detect if the coronavirus is present in the body, but rather if the person has had an immune reaction and has developed some antibodies. It gives a result in 10 to 15 minutes."


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Antibody test approved, mass production starts on 5 million of them. Report in French: https://www.rtbf.be/info/regions/li...lides-zentech-lance-la-production?id=10483496


This story gets stranger. https://plus.lesoir.be/294903/artic...giques-fabriques-en-belgique-disponibles-mais says that they are not yet authorised for use in Belgium, despite the validation and start of mass production. I guess someone will buy them if Belgium doesn't?


----------



## Levo-Lon (17 Apr 2020)

Mayor of London wants all travelers on trains to wear masks.
I think he must be one of the people that believe the African internet sales abundance is real...
Hands up those who have seen masks in shops or freely available .

We have 300 at work for when we get a case... Dozen staff on day shift..so only a few day ppe on that score


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> This story gets stranger. https://plus.lesoir.be/294903/artic...giques-fabriques-en-belgique-disponibles-mais says that they are not yet authorised for use in Belgium, despite the validation and start of mass production. I guess someone will buy them if Belgium doesn't?


The test is still not validated but it does look like ZenTech are pretty confident that it has market potential.


----------



## Rocky (17 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Mayor of London wants all travelers on trains to wear masks.
> I think he must be one of the people that believe the African internet sales abundance is real...
> Hands up those who have seen masks in shops or freely available .
> 
> We have 300 at work for when we get a case... Dozen staff on day shift..so only a few day ppe on that score


The Prof is leading the research on this....the evidence is that it does reduce the spread of the virus by stopping people who are asymptomatic spreading it unknowingly. It won’t stop you getting infected from someone else. Masks don’t need to be medical grade just a barrier to droplets from your nose and mouth. A cycling buff will do. I’m making my own this very moment






It will reduce infection and get us back to work quicker.


----------



## Andy in Germany (17 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> My son has just tested positive for Covid19 and is self-isolating.....



Just found this: I wish your son a speedy recovery...


----------



## Rocky (17 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Just found this: I wish your son a speedy recovery...


Thanks....he’s recovered and has even gone back to work (having isolated for the required time).


----------



## Slick (17 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The Prof is leading the research on this....the evidence is that it does reduce the spread of the virus by stopping people who are asymptomatic spreading it unknowingly. It won’t stop you getting infected from someone else. Masks don’t need to be medical grade just a barrier to droplets from your nose and mouth. A cycling buff will do. I’m making my own this very moment
> 
> View attachment 515682
> 
> It will reduce infection and get us back to work quicker.


If that's the case we will all be wearing one very soon. I'm now trying to imagine how that is going to work in my work, which will be difficult but sounds like it will be the new norm for everyone for a while.


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The test is still not validated but it does look like ZenTech are pretty confident that it has market potential.


What do you base that on? The rtbf headline says it is validated. The visible bit of the Le Soir article says only it's not approved.


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

If we move towards general mask wearing then the message needs to be made very clear that clinical grade masks belong in clinical areas. 
WHO and others have made it clear that for the rest of all it needs is a face covering. 
The other clear message which needs to come back in force is hand washing. In recent weeks that's starting to get lost. 
Covering your face than messing with it or your eyes with unclean hands will just make matters worse.
Remember your eyes are not in the mask.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> What do you base that on? The rtbf headline says it is validated. The visible bit of the Le Soir article says only it's not approved.


The second rtbf sentence: _The process must still be validated by the medical world. (Encore fallait-il que ce processus soit validé par le monde médical. )_


----------



## Slick (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> If we move towards general mask wearing then the message needs to be made very clear that clinical grade masks belong in clinical areas.
> WHO and others have made it clear that for the rest of all it needs is a face covering.
> The other clear message which needs to come back in force is hand washing. In recent weeks that's starting to get lost.
> Covering your face than messing with it or your eyes with unclean hands will just make matters worse.
> Remember your eyes are not in the mask.


That message was very clear but as always people will hear what they want to hear.


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

In a desperate situation a director of a large NHS trust asks the BBC for the number of Burberry and Barbour. 
To try and get some gowns in quick time or in less the 24 hours they will run out.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52319576


----------



## Andy in Germany (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> In a desperate situation a director of a large NHS trust asks the BBC for the number of Burberry and Barbour.
> To try and get some gowns in quick time or in less the 24 hours they will run out.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52319576



You mean clapping wasn't enough?


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The second rtbf sentence: _The process must still be validated by the medical world. (Encore fallait-il que ce processus soit validé par le monde médical. )_


And then it describes the validation.


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

Slick said:


> That message was very clear but as always people will hear what they want to hear.


It was clear but a few weeks ago, someone decided we were thicker than most countries and switched to the message which only mentions staying home: "stay home, protect the NHS, save lives". This mismessaging is probably literally killing people.

Here's the current Dutch message:




IIRC, they're on a trajettory closer to Germany than Italy than the UK is. This may be part, but only part.

Places like South Korea have cool videos with the three-point message, but I can't tell which is official and current.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> And then it describes the validation.


I read it as having very positive results after rigorous analysis from CHU but not actually validated (yet?). Perhaps CHU alone can't generally validate the test. The headline is extremely misleading.


----------



## Adam4868 (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> It was clear but a few weeks ago, someone decided we were thicker than most countries and switched to the message which only mentions staying home: "stay home, protect the NHS, save lives". This mismessaging is probably literally killing people.
> 
> Here's the current Dutch message:
> View attachment 515689
> ...


I take offence at saying we're thick !

View: https://twitter.com/d_rafi1/status/1250864574984867856?s=19


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I read it as having very positive results after rigorous analysis from CHU but not actually validated (yet?). Perhaps CHU alone can't generally validate the test. The headline is extremely misleading.


CHU Liege (there are other CHUs). But I agree the report isn't crystal. I'll see if tv sheds more light.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (17 Apr 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> I take offence at saying we're thick !
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/d_rafi1/status/1250864574984867856?s=19




WTF is going on there?


----------



## Adam4868 (17 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> WTF is going on there?


More to the question WTF are the police joining in !


----------



## MarkF (17 Apr 2020)

I can't go into a "dirty" area without PPE. I hid a box of masks yesterday morning, properly hid too and only told the other A&E porter. 20 mins or so later I needed one, they were gone! Flippin doctors. So much has been and continues to be wasted (not by medical staff) and I wish I could tell you how and why that happens and also, how very simple it would be to put a stop to that waste. Another problem will be that although staff will be screaming for certain items of PPE (as well hiding them) somehwere in a dark out of the way place, boxes of it will be sat there........

More positively, despite the headlines and pictures, for every virus patient struggling for life, there will be many, many more sat up in bed in general wards, chatting to others, having treatment and very soon to be discharged.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> CHU Liege (there are other CHUs). But I agree the report isn't crystal. I'll see if tv sheds more light.


This might help: https://www.rtbf.be/info/regions/li...e-zentech-a-prouve-son-efficacite?id=10478960

The final quote makes it clear that the Belgian government hasn't approved their use.


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> This might help: https://www.rtbf.be/info/regions/li...e-zentech-a-prouve-son-efficacite?id=10478960
> 
> The final quote makes it clear that the Belgian government hasn't approved their use.


but says it is validated? I think this is like it has passed trials but isn't yet approved for purchase.


----------



## BoldonLad (17 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I don't think it's politicians who procure equipment for the NHS. Isn't it the NHS or the Department of Health? Can somebody tell us?


Exactly so.


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

Belgian rtbf tv news: lockdown extended to 3 May but some restrictions lifted including DIY and garden stores reopen, care homes to allow one visitor per resident against manager objections except Namur province which has blocked it, questions over statistics, exams cancelled, summer festivals all cancelled, the Charles de Gaulle incident mentioned above, Venice reopens bookshops, Denmark reopens schools, gas-plasma mask-washing process developed in Mons


----------



## roubaixtuesday (17 Apr 2020)

Great to see the UK leading evidence based approach to drug treatments

Note the moderate expectations, in total contrast to Trumpian trumpeting.

_Horby says it’s unlikely they will come up with a quick cure. “We haven’t got anything like a magic bullet,” he said. “I think we have to temper people’s expectations about these drugs. It’s possible some might have an effect, but it’s likely to be modest. I think what we’ll be looking at in terms of making a significant impact will be moving on to combinations once we know of things that work. If we combine antiviral and anti-inflammatory drugs, they might have a bigger impact.” _

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/world-biggest-drug-trial-covid-19-uk


----------



## glasgowcyclist (17 Apr 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> More to the question WTF are the police joining in !



I was including them in my astonishment.

If ever a gathering needed dispersed it was that. Maybe not so easy as telling a guy he can't be out in his own front garden or threatening to fine a lone journalist for filming the police though.


----------



## Eziemnaik (17 Apr 2020)

Interesting read highlighting the ddifference in German response to CV19
http://www.eurointelligence.com/public/
Summary : decentralized planing is better


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

Following on from @kingrollo post about a report in guardian from a paramedic about more people dying at home not being reported and increase use of DNR's in the community. 
I've asked around the ambo's and it's happening all over the place. 
Use of ROLE is now become common place on every shift.


----------



## Levo-Lon (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> If we move towards general mask wearing then the message needs to be made very clear that clinical grade masks belong in clinical areas.
> WHO and others have made it clear that for the rest of all it needs is a face covering.
> The other clear message which needs to come back in force is hand washing. In recent weeks that's starting to get lost.
> Covering your face than messing with it or your eyes with unclean hands will just make matters worse.
> Remember your eyes are not in the mask.





I've just had a chat with my manager about us masking up.
Shortage of clinical masks, we have a weeks supply of the right masks.

We may need to wear them if we get it here..I'm of the opinion that will be too late.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Following on from @kingrollo post about a report in guardian from a paramedic about more people dying at home not being reported and increase use of DNR's in the community.
> I've asked around the ambo's and it's happening all over the place.
> Use of ROLE is now become common place on every shift.


Yes the infection rate is on the rise again as well from yesterday's states.

Interesting read in today's metro where an Austrian official basically give the UK as an example of how not to handle the coronavirus outbreak.


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Interesting read highlighting the ddifference in German response to CV19
> http://www.eurointelligence.com/public/
> Summary : decentralized planing is better


No shoot. Sadly the UKIP/BxP policy was always Whitehall supremacy and the Conservatives adopted it, dismantling English regional government under headlines like "red tape challenge" and only giving limited powers back to a patchwork of too-small areas once there was a chance it could be Tory-controlled, such as Birmingham electing a Tory mayor


----------



## fossyant (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Following on from @kingrollo post about a report in guardian from a paramedic about more people dying at home not being reported and increase use of DNR's in the community.
> I've asked around the ambo's and it's happening all over the place.
> Use of ROLE is now become common place on every shift.



We've already been asked about MIL - where do you want her treating ? - if she get's it, they'll make her comfy in the nursing home before she dies - that's all they can do. We did make sure the DNR was back in place a few months ago as she had revoked it when she nearly died last year - she can't remember doing that, as she want's DNR - be no point trying to bring her round in an even worse state.


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

fossyant said:


> We've already been asked about MIL - where do you want her treating ? - if she get's it, they'll make her comfy in the nursing home before she dies - that's all they can do. We did make sure the DNR was back in place a few months ago as she had revoked it when she nearly died last year - she can't remember doing that, as she want's DNR - be no point trying to bring her round in an even worse state.



That's how it should it's her wish and her right to do it together with your involvement. 
My main worry is the increase in just using them without any one being involved in the process. 
They get handed out widely enough as it is current situation has just made it a whole lot worse.


----------



## Eziemnaik (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> No shoot. Sadly the UKIP/BxP policy was always Whitehall supremacy and the Conservatives adopted it, dismantling English regional government under headlines like "red tape challenge" and only giving limited powers back to a patchwork of too-small areas once there was a chance it could be Tory-controlled, such as Birmingham electing a Tory mayor


It is not unique to UK, unfortunately. Seems most of Europe has been going in that direction (here in Spain, despite substantial autonomy of regional governments the response of central Gov has been very much top down - regions are complaining local experience and particularities are not taken into account). It is a theme repeating itself with FN, VOX, Liga or AFD


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> I've just had a chat with my manager about us making up.
> Shortage of clinical masks, we have a weeks supply of the right masks.
> 
> We may need to wear them if we get it here..I'm of the opinion that will be too late.



No need to worry one call to Hancocks new order hotline and your all sorted.


----------



## pawl (17 Apr 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Easier to exploit?




In some cases I would agree.But perhaps some of these workers aren’t afraid of hard work.I remberthere was a TV report a bought a farm in east anglia .The owner had set up residential mobile homes on his site,all mod cons.Built laundry facilities and club room.

He was asked why he didn’t employ local labour.He had advertised for workers Two responses.One alked off the job after an hour the other on didn’t return the next day not even to pick up his days wages Perhaps it has something to do with there work ethic. The same workers returned year after year 
Agriculture has become increasingly mechanised but ther are some jobs that need manual labour and is not able to be achieved by the push of a button


----------



## pawl (17 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Funny you should say that. I’ve just read a comment from a guy saying he knows of at least ten people that have applied but not even received a reply. Maybe they prefer foreign workers? Faster, more skilled?



You hit the nail on the head there Mo


----------



## Andy in Germany (17 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> It is not unique to UK, unfortunately. Seems most of Europe has been going in that direction (here in Spain, despite substantial autonomy of regional governments the response of central Gov has been very much top down - regions are complaining local experience and particularities are not taken into account). It is a theme repeating itself with FN, VOX, Liga or AFD



No idea about the other political parties, but take what the AfD say on this subject with a pinch of salt: Germany is constitutionally Federal which means the central government can't really order the 16 states to do much. In fact we've had a number of people saying it was too federal in the light of this situation, because the states had different responses. 
On the other hand that's why the Saarland can work closely with Belgium and Luxembourg, because they have the autonomy to decide how they respond, and as they are a tiny state and culturally and geographically closer to the other SU states, it makes sense to work with their "foreign" neighbours.
Also, the AfD would be very happy for a British style centralised government if they were in charge: like every populist party they're very good at complaining about anything that they think will get them a vote.


----------



## slowmotion (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> It was clear but a few weeks ago, someone decided we were thicker than most countries and switched to the message which only mentions staying home: "stay home, protect the NHS, save lives". This mismessaging is probably literally killing people.
> 
> Here's the current Dutch message:
> View attachment 515689
> ...


I looked earlier in the week and the Netherlands had a quarter of UK deaths...……..and a quarter of the UK population.


----------



## pawl (17 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I think that NHS Supply Chain deals with procurement.
> 
> https://www.supplychain.nhs.uk/about-us/
> 
> I imagine that the politicians just hand over money and don't have any hands-on involvement. I won't bother getting into an argument about whether NHS Supply Chain has been given enough money because I don't know.


 

Do the private sector care/nursing homes pay for there own personal protection equipment.As by definition they are profit making organisations Is it a case of the government/NHS not supplying them or the items are just not a available for them to purchase.


----------



## slowmotion (17 Apr 2020)

pawl said:


> Do the private sector care/nursing homes pay for there own personal protection equipment.As by definition they are profit making organisations Is it a case of the government/NHS not supplying them or the items are just not a available for them to purchase.


I honestly don't know, I'm afraid.


----------



## Andy in Germany (17 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I looked earlier in the week and the Netherlands had a quarter of UK deaths...……..and a quarter of the UK population.



As of today they are reporting 18.18813 deaths per 100 000 of the population and the UK reporting 19.35358 deaths per 100 000, so on the fact of it, they seem comparable.

That said, I've heard the UK is only counting hospital deaths, which would mean many are unreported.


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

pawl said:


> Do the private sector care/nursing homes pay for there own personal protection equipment.As by definition they are profit making organisations Is it a case of the government/NHS not supplying them or the items are just not a available for them to purchase.


Mostly down to them in normal times. Currently the sheer volume needed has made it a national matter of supply. 
Homes are still free to source what ever they can find. Some are happy to pay but can't find any or can only order small amounts that just wont last out the day.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (17 Apr 2020)

.


Andy in Germany said:


> As of today they are reporting 18.18813 deaths per 100 000 of the population and the UK reporting 19.35358 deaths per 100 000, so on the fact of it, they seem comparable.
> 
> That said, I've heard the UK is only counting hospital deaths, which would mean many are unreported.



NL new cases and daily mortality looks to have stabilised earlier, so on that basis you can expect lower final figures I would guess. But that's no better informed than personal speculation.


----------



## newfhouse (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> one call to Hancocks new order hotline and your all sorted.


Tried it, just got music on hold. How does it feel?

View: https://youtu.be/LQaehcfXvK0


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

One area that's not getting much coverage what's little help Hospices are getting. They have seen most of the money dry up the government has put some funding in place but not enough. They are crying out for PPE many have had to rely on community donations. 
Lack of PPE effecting saying good bye in a hospital is one thing. But when it's effecting end of life care we really have hit rock bottom.


----------



## Andy in Germany (17 Apr 2020)

Does anyone have any numbers on cases where people have recovered?


----------



## Andy in Germany (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> One area that's not getting much coverage what's little help Hospices are getting. They have seen most of the money dry up the government has put some funding in place but not enough. They are crying out for PPE many have had to rely on community donations.
> Lack of PPE effecting saying good bye in a hospital is one thing. But when it's effecting end of life care we really have hit rock bottom.



I think we already were at rock bottom: it's just that the pandemic has exposed the situation for what it is.

But hey, we clap the PPE-less staff on Thursday night, so it'll all be fine. Nothing to see here...

Oh, and care workers get a badge...


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

Hancock has just told the health and social care select committee that testing will now be opened up to key LA workers, police , fire , prison officers and workers, key DWP staff and the Judiciary.
I think he really believes that you make the test list longer will magical make them appear.


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> I think we already were at rick bottom: it's just that the pandemic has exposed the situation for what it is.
> 
> But hey, we clap the PPE-less staff on Tuesday night, so it'll all be fine. Nothing to see here...
> 
> Oh, and care workers get a badge...


Oh yes the badge old Matt has publicly said it's gone down well with staff.


----------



## Andy in Germany (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Hancock has just told the health and social care select committee that testing will now be opened up to key LA workers, police , fire , prison offers and workers, key DWP staff and the Judiciary.
> I think he really believes that you make the test list longer will magical make them appear.



I heard someone comment recently that the UKgov seemsto be incresing the "targets" to give the impression they have reached previous targets, so they'll say they want to do 10 000 tests, then announce the new 'target' is 20 000, and a week later say they are aiming for 100 000... 

They are still barely at the 10 000 mark three weeks later, but it gives the impression it's increasing rapidly, so people assume they are testing a lot more people than they actually are.

If that's happening then this _could _be more of the same.


----------



## slowmotion (17 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> As of today they are reporting 18.18813 deaths per 100 000 of the population and the UK reporting 19.35358 deaths per 100 000, so on the fact of it, they seem comparable.
> 
> That said, I've heard the UK is only counting hospital
> So, if those figures are correct, the chance on a randomly selected person dying in hospital from Covid 19 is 0.019% at present?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (17 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> So, if those figures are correct, the chance on a randomly selected person dying in hospital from Covid 19 is 0.019% at present?



I think a better way to interpret that might be that the chance of a person randomly selected at the start of this year having already died from COVID-19 is 0.019%

The future figure is highly uncertain and depends on our next steps as a country. It's probably at least the same again from forecasts I've seen.


----------



## slowmotion (17 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think a better way to interpret that might be that the chance of a person randomly selected at the start of this year having already died from COVID-19 is 0.019%
> 
> The future figure is highly uncertain and depends on our next steps as a country. It's probably at least the same again from forecasts I've seen.


Yes absolutely, but a probability of 0.019% is mighty small. I had a fairly routine operation a few years ago and had to sign a consent form. The surgeon said I had a 2% chance of dying on the operating table. I didn't think those odds were too bad really.


----------



## Andy in Germany (17 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> So, if those figures are correct, the chance on a randomly selected person dying in hospital from Covid 19 is 0.019% at present?



If they are only counting hospital deaths, I think that's correct.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Does anyone have any numbers on cases where people have recovered?


I noticed that stat is missing from UK stats - whether it's because most UK people have recovered at home - so hospital recoveries would look very poor.


----------



## Andy in Germany (17 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Yes absolutely, but a probability of 0.019% is mighty small. I had a fairly routine operation a few years ago and had to sign a consent form. The surgeon said I had a 2% chance of dying on the operating table. I didn't think those odds were too bad really.



Unfortunately it could be higher if non-hospital deaths are being excluded. Also, younger people have a higher chance of survival, so the mumbers will skew depending on your age.


----------



## Andy in Germany (17 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I noticed that stat is missing from UK stats - whether it's because most UK people have recovered at home - so hospital recoveries would look very poor.



I only found it for Scotland, but not the rest of the UK. I can't find any for Germany either, come to that.


----------



## slowmotion (17 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Unfortunately it could be higher if non-hospital deaths are being excluded. Also, younger people have a higher chance of survival, so the mumbers will skew depending on your age.


Yes, I'm sure my personal chances are a lot worse than 0.019% due to age etc, but I find the numbers quite reassuring really. Anyway, fingers crossed.


----------



## Andy in Germany (17 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Yes, I'm sure my personal chances are a lot worse than 0.019% due to age etc, but I find the numbers quite reassuring really. Anyway, fingers crossed.



I'm in the same situation as I'm very slightly asthmatic, and I won't be able to isolate next month...


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> I heard someone comment recently that the UKgov seemsto be incresing the "targets" to give the impression they have reached previous targets, so they'll say they want to do 10 000 tests, then announce the new 'target' is 20 000, and a week later say they are aiming for 100 000...
> 
> They are still barely at the 10 000 mark three weeks later, but it gives the impression it's increasing rapidly, so people assume they are testing a lot more people than they actually are.
> 
> If that's happening then this _could _be more of the same.



Some of the extra capacity in testing Matt says is down to NHS staff not taking up offer of being tested.


----------



## Rickshaw Phil (17 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Thanks....he’s recovered and has even gone back to work (having isolated for the required time).


I'm so glad to read this.


----------



## Rocky (17 Apr 2020)

Rickshaw Phil said:


> I'm so glad to read this.


Thank you, Phil


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Some of the extra capacity in testing Matt says is down to NHS staff not taking up offer of being tested.



Why on earth can that be !!!!! ?


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Why on earth can that be !!!!! ?



Nothing more to see move along please


----------



## screenman (17 Apr 2020)

This is on our village facebook page, liked by 6 people in the 25 to 30 age group.

I think everyone needs to mind their own knitting to be honest. If no ones going near the people who are “gathering” together why does it matter to you? You aren’t going to catch it are you? Also, if they are around the same people every day they aren’t either. It’s only like people going to work every day being around loads of people or shopping in supermarkets! Who said the fruit you just bought hasn’t been touched or licked by the last person


----------



## screenman (17 Apr 2020)

More,

not being funny but that could happen anywhere? The virus has made its way from China to the UK, you think staying in is really going to stop it? And one person out of every family going shopping is going to stop it? People are still going to work? This situation is absolute rubbish but slagging each other off isn’t going to stop it, if it’s coming then it’s coming we might as well all support each other, stop being nosey and just get on with it and do the best we can.

Again like by ignorant people.


----------



## Rocky (17 Apr 2020)

It seems that current research studies show that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine don’t work for Covid19 and may even do harm for some patients.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1432


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

Maybe they can volunteer for clinical trials if they think it's nothing to worry about.


----------



## Rocky (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Maybe they can volunteer for clinical trials if they think it's nothing to worry about.


I think waiting for a vaccine is going to be the best hope. I’d be happy to participate in a clinical trial for that.....unfortunately I seem to be too old for the one running locally at the mo.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> I only found it for Scotland, but not the rest of the UK. I can't find any for Germany either, come to that.


81,800 as of yesterday. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

If we are going to have a virtual parliament. Then let's just cut out the MP's and let the public ask the question and really hold the government to account. Much better than the side show we normally get. Plus it would save on the extra kit MP's have suddenly had to buy along with the extra 10K no questions asked payments.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

Prof Anthony Costello , warning of 40k UK deaths - that the UK will have the worse death rate in Europe - and that mistakes were made in the UK around testing and the speed of the lockdown.

Thankfully it's getting some airtime as well ....I reckon Hancock will be announcing free lollipop s tonight.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (17 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Yes absolutely, but a probability of 0.019% is mighty small. I had a fairly routine operation a few years ago and had to sign a consent form. The surgeon said I had a 2% chance of dying on the operating table. I didn't think those odds were too bad really.



Interesting odds calculator re expiring within a particular time-frame; based on age:

https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of-dying


----------



## marinyork (17 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It seems that current research studies show that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine don’t work for Covid19 and may even do harm for some patients.
> 
> https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1432



Not too surprising to me. I was working on the assumption (reasonable or not) that hydroxycholoquine was at best able to be used in just a small subject of patients, even if it was effective. We'll have to see if these massive efforts to screen thousands of drugs come up with anything remotely useful for the winter outbreak.


----------



## marinyork (17 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Prof Anthony Costello , warning of 40k UK deaths - that the UK will have the worse death rate in Europe - and that mistakes were made in the UK around testing and the speed of the lockdown.
> 
> Thankfully it's getting some airtime as well ....I reckon Hancock will be announcing free lollipop s tonight.



Not clear where he's got his numbers from, but the a revised model in the University of Washington on a second run through of more recent data (unfortunately the first run through meant they lost credibility and got little coverage) said 37,483 deaths by the start of August. It has to be said the same model the figures for Italy were blatantly nonsense, I don't know whether they were using old Italian data as had happened with the UK in the first run.

If you start plotting families of curves on the basis the government have said of another 8 weeks or longer into July or August as the government said in the past then you get that ballpark - easily.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

screenman said:


> More,
> 
> not being funny but that could happen anywhere? The virus has made its way from China to the UK, you think staying in is really going to stop it? And one person out of every family going shopping is going to stop it? People are still going to work? This situation is absolute rubbish but slagging each other off isn’t going to stop it, if it’s coming then it’s coming we might as well all support each other, stop being nosey and just get on with it and do the best we can.
> 
> Again like by ignorant people.



The idea isn't to stop the virus - even Johnson and the Tories aren't saying that.

If in a family 4 - only 1 person goes out - that cuts the potential exposure by 75% - replicate that by 60 million and you can see it will reduce (not stop) transmission

The idea of the lockdown is we manage the flow - so everyone who needs treatment can have it - If everyone is infected at the same time more people will die as they won't get drugs, ITU beds etc.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Not clear where he's got his numbers from, but the a revised model in the University of Washington on a second run through of more recent data (unfortunately the first run through meant they lost credibility and got little coverage) said 37,483 deaths by the start of August. It has to be said the same model the figures for Italy were blatantly nonsense, I don't know whether they were using old Italian data as had happened with the UK in the first run.
> 
> If you start plotting families of curves on the basis the government have said of another 8 weeks or longer into July or August as the government said in the past then you get that ballpark - easily.



I think that report said 60k originally - but was revised this week.

From memory we are close to 13k uk hospital deaths - and adding around 800 daily - even if that drops of to 500 daily - thats a 1,000 deaths every two days. 37,000 - 40,000 is not unthinkable in my book.


----------



## marinyork (17 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think that report said 60k originally - but was revised this week.
> 
> From memory we are close to 13k uk hospital deaths - and adding around 800 daily - even if that drops of to 500 daily - thats a 1,000 deaths every two days. 37,000 - 40,000 is not unthinkable in my book.



It's the same source, IMHE is in the University of Washington. It was 66,000 originally and re-ran on new data.

There may be a long tail as has been seen in Italy. The government have said on numerous occasions since January that this is what models say. 

The UK numbers I think are realistic in that model. The numbers for some other countries are out by quite a way.


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

Belgian rtbf tv news: new totals, Royals visit another hopital, recovery advice app, sheltered housing visits restricted, recycling sites reopen chaotically, digital divide among uni students, garden nurseries reopen, Ommegang cancelled with costumers switching to ppe manufacture, USA boggling, Poland requires masks if in public and made a bus wear one, 3d printers making masks and visors, singer Christophe dies


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU9qYbLtPog


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

5600 positive test results announced today - is that figure on the rise again ?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (17 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> 5600 positive test results announced today - is that figure on the rise again ?



Worryingly, yes, though not by much and I would speculate it's likely down to testing rate rather than prevalence.

Data up to and including yesterday(worldometers):


----------



## screenman (17 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> The idea isn't to stop the virus - even Johnson and the Tories aren't saying that.
> 
> If in a family 4 - only 1 person goes out - that cuts the potential exposure by 75% - replicate that by 60 million and you can see it will reduce (not stop) transmission
> 
> The idea of the lockdown is we manage the flow - so everyone who needs treatment can have it - If everyone is infected at the same time more people will die as they won't get drugs, ITU beds etc.



I know that, but the under thirties in my village seem no too.


----------



## gavgav (17 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I noticed that stat is missing from UK stats - whether it's because most UK people have recovered at home - so hospital recoveries would look very poor.


Our daily SITREP submission has 2 KPI’s related to discharges, 1 just the overall number and 1 the number back to place of residence and so I’m slightly perplexed why they aren’t reporting on those numbers as well....


----------



## gavgav (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Some of the extra capacity in testing Matt says is down to NHS staff not taking up offer of being tested.


Which is interesting because you have to be referred for the tests, you can’t just turn up and have one!


----------



## PaulB (17 Apr 2020)

One thing I noticed today on my travels was the sheer number of hearses I saw.

I was on a mercy mission today for my elderly uncle and his fragile wife (essential supplies, food, medicine and reading materials) and this was the first time I've driven my car more than eight miles for nearly four weeks - and that's been usually to take my senior nurse wife to her front-line job - and collect her after another brutal day. I have a habit of turning my radio/MP3 player off completely whenever I see a hearse while I'm on the road so it's always noticeable to me. Some days I will go the entire day without seeing one but today I saw 14! Each of them had a coffin inside as well but very few had the usual cortege following them. So that's 106 miles there and back and 14 hearses, two on the M58 and 12 in Liverpool.


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I looked earlier in the week and the Netherlands had a quarter of UK deaths...……..and a quarter of the UK population.


Well, yes, but are you forgetting that the Netherlands is arguably a few days ahead of us in the outbreak? See attached graph.





The German proportionate deaths curve seems to have gone rather odd since I last looked, falling far lower. I may not have selected the same parameters as my last exploration.


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

55,000 gowns are on the way toady say's Matt.
Well that should see us though the weekend no problem.


----------



## slowmotion (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Well, yes, but are you forgetting that the Netherlands is arguably a few days ahead of us in the outbreak? See attached graph.
> View attachment 515780
> 
> 
> The German proportionate deaths curve seems to have gone rather odd since I last looked, falling far lower. I may not have selected the same parameters as my last exploration.


I'm in absolutely no doubt that the statistics can be sliced and diced any number of ways depending on one's personal agenda.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

Well we are starting contact tracing/ testing again (although the quoted source is Matt Hancock - so pinch of salt required)

I wonder if thats because infection s seem to be increasing again ?


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I'm in absolutely no doubt that the statistics can be sliced and diced any number of ways depending on one's personal agenda.


That's the second time this week that you've posted something that looks like it accuses me of spinning things, instead of answering with any coherent argument of your own.


----------



## slowmotion (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> That's the second time this week that you've posted something that looks like it accuses me of spinning things, instead of answering with any coherent argument of your own.


It was an observation about how people can draw different conclusions about statistics in the absence of totally reliable data. They tend to conclude what they want to believe. We all do it. Don't take it as an accusation.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

I wonder when it be that masks do actually help - we seem to have changed our minds on so many things ....


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I wonder when it be that masks do actually help - we seem to have changed our minds on so many things ....



Fancy dress parties I'm told


----------



## marinyork (17 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Fancy dress parties I'm told



At chequers


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

Well theirs no vaccine - but we do have a vaccine task force 

Seriously you couldn't make it up could you ?


----------



## vickster (17 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well theirs no vaccine - but we do have a vaccine task force
> 
> Seriously you couldn't make it up could you ?


Is that a bad thing if there are 80 groups involved in vaccine development globally? Coordination must be a good thing?
Coronavirus vaccine: Target of a million doses by September, scientists say https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52329659


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

Now the Justice Secretary is facing legal action for his grand virus plan. 
For being too little , too late oh why do I think I may have seen that before.  
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52329822
Remember the 4000 prisoners to be released early under licence? Turns out they meant 18.


----------



## IaninSheffield (17 Apr 2020)

This week's Freakonomics Podcast discussed the ethics which inform some of the decisions facing medical professionals during the crisis. Found it interesting (although in many ways concerning) to explore a different strand than those on which the mainstream media usually focus.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Apr 2020)

In other news Batman will be alright due to his super fast immune system.


----------



## marinyork (17 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> In other news Batman will be alright due to his super fast immune system.



He's got proper PPE too.


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Is that a bad thing if there are 80 groups involved in vaccine development globally? Coordination must be a good thing?


It's a UK task force so not going to coordinate global efforts
https://talkradio.co.uk/features/coronavirus-briefing-task-force-set-develop-vaccine-20041333202

Next there will be a working group, then an action team, ...


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

Debunked: No, Sweden has not suppressed Covid-19 more than countries with stricter measures https://www.thejournal.ie/sweden-coronavirus-debunk-5076859-Apr2020/


----------



## RoadRider400 (17 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I wonder when it be that masks do actually help - we seem to have changed our minds on so many things ....


Of course masks help. Witty gave the game away yesterday, he said that there isnt solid evidence they work, but they need to be given to the nhs rather than the general public. He also said they are always reviewing evidence. Bet my bottom dollar that once they have sufficient supply to the NHS that they will suddenly find evidence that they are worthwhile for the general population too.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Of course masks help. Witty gave the game away yesterday, he said that there isnt solid evidence they work, but they need to be given to the nhs rather than the general public. He also said they are always reviewing evidence. Bet my bottom dollar that once they have sufficient supply to the NHS that they will suddenly find evidence that they are worthwhile for the general population too.


It builds into a different approach imo. Everyone is shitting themselves at the moment thinking "how can I avoid catching it"........where as the angle should be " how can I avoid passing it on"..........

.....and as you say a supply of masks !!!!


----------



## Illaveago (17 Apr 2020)

I have been listening to the daily virus updates and the constant questions over testing . The Health Secretary keeps saying that they hope to test 100,000 a day by the end of the month . 
What I heard on the local news today is that if a care worker suspects that they may or may not have the virus then the only test centre is 60 miles away ! Surely they need more test facilities locally ?


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Of course masks help. Witty gave the game away yesterday, he said that there isnt solid evidence they work, but they need to be given to the nhs rather than the general public. He also said they are always reviewing evidence. Bet my bottom dollar that once they have sufficient supply to the NHS that they will suddenly find evidence that they are worthwhile for the general population too.



If any change comes in it will be face coverings not clinical masks. That what the evidence is focused on and that's what WHO has been talking about. Clinical masks are only really of only of any use for the general public if the wearer is covid positive.


----------



## RoadRider400 (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> If any change comes in it will be face coverings not clinical masks. That what the evidence is focused on and that's what WHO has been talking about. *Clinical masks are only really of only of any use for the general public if the wearer is covid positive.*


Can you explain how that works? Do the masks stop the virus penetrating it from one direction but not the other?


----------



## Rocky (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> If any change comes in it will be face coverings not clinical masks. That what the evidence is focused on and that's what WHO has been talking about. Clinical masks are only really of only of any use for the general public if the wearer is covid positive.


My face covering protects you and yours protects me.






This is what we need.


----------



## Rocky (17 Apr 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Can you explain how that works? Do the masks stop the virus penetrating it from one direction but not the other?


A face covering reduces the virus from my sneezing and breathing getting to you. Just reducing it, even though some may escape, reduces the number of people I might infect


----------



## Rocky (17 Apr 2020)

Here's a youtube clip from the US Surgeon General explaining how to make one.....


----------



## slowmotion (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Debunked: No, Sweden has not suppressed Covid-19 more than countries with stricter measures https://www.thejournal.ie/sweden-coronavirus-debunk-5076859-Apr2020/


I wouldn't be surprised if Sweden did relatively well, no matter what steps they took. 50% of households have only one occupant so I would guess that that's a huge advantage in reducing transmission rates.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> If any change comes in it will be face coverings not clinical masks. That what the evidence is focused on and that's what WHO has been talking about. Clinical masks are only really of only of any use for the general public if the wearer is covid positive.


But that's point - you don't know when you are infected. If you have a mask on - you limit the chances of passing it on.

I've said for a while airborne droplets would appear to be the major transmission route. All the handwashing didn't appear to slow the virus at all. Wearing masks might be more effective.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> My face covering protects you and yours protects me.
> 
> View attachment 515822
> 
> This is what we need.


I've got loads of those - always wear them in the cold - so my nose going into overdrive.

People at the club say I look like I'm going Rob a bank !!


----------



## Milzy (17 Apr 2020)

I've heard a top scientist has a theory that as the graph flattens another wave could come in and as we flatten the next wave it could happen repeatedly up to 6 times.
As there's no vaccine for a long time it could also be possible to fall ill with the virus again, or keep spreading it. I can see the vulnerable and elderly practicing social distancing all the way up to Christmas.


----------



## Rocky (17 Apr 2020)

Milzy said:


> I've heard a top scientist has a theory that as the graph flattens another wave could come in and as we flatten the next wave it could happen repeatedly up to 6 times.
> As there's no vaccine for a long time it could also be possible to fall ill with the virus again, or keep spreading it. I can see the vulnerable and elderly practicing social distancing all the way up to Christmas.


University of Oxford are targeting having 1 million doses of a vaccine by September. The potential vaccine is undergoing clinical trials at the moment - of course it might not be effective but if it is, the vulnerable will be given it first.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52329659


----------



## Illaveago (17 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> If any change comes in it will be face coverings not clinical masks. That what the evidence is focused on and that's what WHO has been talking about. Clinical masks are only really of only of any use for the general public if the wearer is covid positive.


Full face crash helmets ?


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I've said for a while airborne droplets would appear to be the major transmission route. All the handwashing didn't appear to slow the virus at all. Wearing masks might be more effective.


Did you not see the 2016 model that reckoned 800'000+ dead without hand-washing? Even the washing-but-no-lockdown 500'000 model never got quite that bad.


----------



## mjr (17 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> University of Oxford are targeting having 1 million doses of a vaccine by September. The potential vaccine is undergoing clinical trials at the moment - of course it might not be effective but if it is, the vulnerable will be given it first.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52329659


Really? Doesn't the science still say that likely-super-spreaders (care, shop and cafe workers, and so on) should get it first? If not, what changed? (It doesn't seem to be in the linked article.)


----------



## Rocky (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Really? Doesn't the science still say that likely-super-spreaders (care, shop and cafe workers, and so on) should get it first? If not, what changed? (It doesn't seem to be in the linked article.)


BBC News at 6 had Prof Hill, head of the Jenner Institute in Oxford talking about the vaccine (I think in evidence to the Commons Select Cttee) saying that it would be rolled out in the normal way and given to vulnerable people first (much in the same way the 'flu jab is)


----------



## Milzy (17 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> BBC News at 6 had Prof Hill, head of the Jenner Institute in Oxford talking about the vaccine (I think in evidence to the Commons Select Cttee) saying that it would be rolled out in the normal way and given to vulnerable people first (much in the same way the 'flu jab is)


Many people refuse the flu jab. Some have conspiracy theories about them others are just scared of needles. Some would rather have Flu than be at work. Do you think most of the general public will happily take a rushed out vaccine? Those who refuse will spread to others who also have refused or not had the chance yet.


----------



## Rocky (17 Apr 2020)

Milzy said:


> Many people refuse the flu jab. Some have conspiracy theories about them others are just scared of needles. Some would rather have Flu than be at work. Do you think most of the general public will happily take a rushed out vaccine? Those who refuse will spread to others who also have refused or not had the chance yet.


It's an interesting point - at the moment we don't have compulsory vaccination (although some countries do). To work as a junior doctor, my son has to prove he's had a range of vaccinations or is immune to a range of diseases. I would imagine for health care workers it would be compulsory (although to be fair, most will have immunity against Covid now) to be vaccinated. Advertising and nudge philosophy will be employed to motivate others to get vaccinated.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Did you not see the 2016 model that reckoned 800'000+ dead without hand-washing? Even the washing-but-no-lockdown 500'000 model never got quite that bad.


No I didn't.
But what I am saying is if we are moving towards facial protection is that not the major transmission method ?

I'm no advocating no hand washing.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Apr 2020)

Milzy said:


> Many people refuse the flu jab. Some have conspiracy theories about them others are just scared of needles. Some would rather have Flu than be at work. Do you think most of the general public will happily take a rushed out vaccine? Those who refuse will spread to others who also have refused or not had the chance yet.


Not everyone needs to have it for it too work.


----------



## Levo-Lon (17 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> University of Oxford are targeting having 1 million doses of a vaccine by September. The potential vaccine is undergoing clinical trials at the moment - of course it might not be effective but if it is, the vulnerable will be given it first.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52329659





Was your good lady on the BBC news tonight @Brompton Bruce talking about masks?


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It's an interesting point - at the moment we don't have compulsory vaccination (although some countries do). To work as a junior doctor, my son has to prove he's had a range of vaccinations or is immune to a range of diseases. I would imagine for health care workers it would be compulsory (although to be fair, most will have immunity against Covid now) to be vaccinated. Advertising and nudge philosophy will be employed to motivate others to get vaccinated.



The anti vac lot will no doubt find some new wacky theory as to way it’s not a safe idea.
They have sadly become a growing and deadly lobby of late.


----------



## tom73 (17 Apr 2020)

So now we know how you make 55,000 gowns last all weekend? 
You change the guidelines so the lost resort plan of a few days ago.
Have now become main steam guidelines. 
HCP‘s will now have no choice but to think the unthinkable and not treat people. 
Unbelievable


----------



## Wobblers (18 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> What would you consider a smoking gun? I would consider it a smoking gun if there was no intermediary species between bats and humans.



The index case being in close proximity to one of those research labs is circumstantial evidence. It would need to be established that the first person with the disease definitively caught it there. That would probably need the genetics of coronaviruses at that lab to be very similar to the one in the wild.

Given that the last two coronavirus infections have emerged without the assistance of research labs, it's more likely that this is how SARS-CoV-2 came about. It has taken many years of work to show that MERS probably came from bats via camels, which may now be acting as a reservoir for MERS. Failure to find any intermediary species quickly does not mean one does not exist. Nor should the lack of any intermediary indicate that the virus must have come from a research lab - there are many viruses which don't have any intermediary (Lassa, the hantaviruses and probably Marburg are all examples of this).


----------



## Wobblers (18 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> BBC News at 6 had Prof Hill, head of the Jenner Institute in Oxford talking about the vaccine (I think in evidence to the Commons Select Cttee) saying that it would be rolled out in the normal way and given to vulnerable people first (much in the same way the 'flu jab is)



I think a good argument could be made that front line medical staff should be prioritised, both from the pragmatic view that this would help to ensure that the front line services will be able to operate more effectively and also from the moral view that since they're the ones experiencing the highest risks it's only fair that they should be first in line for protection.


----------



## Rocky (18 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Was your good lady on the BBC news tonight @Brompton Bruce talking about masks?


Yes, she’s been doing a few interviews!!


----------



## tom73 (18 Apr 2020)

On the vaccine at yesterdays briefing the question was asked that seeing we've been behind with ever thing up to now.
What measures have been put in place that once we have a vaccine.
We can one secure enough supply and two be first in line to get hold of any. 
From waffle of a rely it's not clear we have either. So we may end up with a government backed UK developed vaccine which we can't get hold of.


----------



## Levo-Lon (18 Apr 2020)

Ok can someone clarify this.

PPE,
So there seems to be a problem with aprons masks ect
Their saying ppe must be changed for every patient.

So you have a ward with 100% covid-19 patients.
Why does the ppe need changing for every patient's care?
You cant give someone covid who's got it.
You wont have a nurse in a covid-19 icu ward dealing with general icu health problems like car accidents, heart attack ect
Dr Rosanna Kahn shadow health secretary going on about it.

If a nurse is in covid-19 ward for the day why are they needing to use fresh ppe constantly, when your in that atmosphere, when it's in the air.


----------



## Slick (18 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Ok can someone clarify this.
> 
> PPE,
> So there seems to be a problem with aprons masks ect
> ...


Was there not some work going into finding out why some people died and some didn't? I'm sure the best they came up with was being constantly re-infected or those being constantly exposed to the virus had a much higher likelihood of a poor outcome.


----------



## marinyork (18 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I've said for a while airborne droplets would appear to be the major transmission route. All the handwashing didn't appear to slow the virus at all. Wearing masks might be more effective.



Italy?


----------



## Levo-Lon (18 Apr 2020)

Slick said:


> Was there not some work going into finding out why some people died and some didn't? I'm sure the best they came up with was being constantly re-infected or those being constantly exposed to the virus had a much higher likelihood of a poor outcome.




In part,but the goal posts keep moving.
I'd have thought the patient would be protected from inhaling and absorbing?


----------



## Slick (18 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> In part,but the goal posts keep moving.
> I'd have thought the patient would be protected from inhaling and absorbing?


I did hear the shadow health secretary's interview that you mention and I did wonder the same thing. In my world PPE is supposed to protect the wearer when the risk can't be removed by any other means, so it must afford at least some protection for the staff.


----------



## PK99 (18 Apr 2020)

Slick said:


> Was there not some work going into finding out why some people died and some didn't? I'm sure the best they came up with was being constantly re-infected or those being constantly exposed to the virus had a much higher likelihood of a poor outcome.



*IIRC*, the reports you are thinking of suggested that Viral load at the point of infection was important in determining disease progression.

Specifially, a high one off dose (medic from a very sick patient) or repeated smaller doses (medics from spending long time around many low level infected patients) presents a large challenge to the immune system whereas a smaller initial exposure/load allows the immune system to respond progressively.


----------



## Slick (18 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> *IIRC*, the reports you are thinking of suggested that Viral load at the point of infection was important in determining disease progression.
> 
> Specifially, a high one off dose (medic from a very sick patient) or repeated smaller doses (medics from spending long time around many low level infected patients) presents a large challenge to the immune system whereas a smaller initial exposure/load allows the immune system to respond progressively.


Couldn't have put it better myself but that's exactly what I meant. 👍


----------



## tom73 (18 Apr 2020)

Right I can see your thinking but it's not black and white. So sorry for the length of the post.
You can't assume none covid related ICU has not got covid so some level of PPE is needed.
Just because they have they may have other none related infections on top of it.
So won't want that spreading around. PPE in clinical environments is as much about protecting the staff as it is to protect the patient.
Some people have been in ICU for weeks long before all this and can't be moved out.
So they can now find themselves in a room full of covid cases. So fresh PPE will be needed.
Some will be recovering from covid but still need a ICU bed the last thing they need is to come down with something else.

Anyone who enters, leaves then returns into the Red zone will require fresh PPE.
Dr's come and go they have other patients in other parts of the hospital to deal with.
Other HCP's and none clinical staff come and go too even none covid nurse may be asked to do part of a shift in the covid area.

Even the nurse at some point needs to leave for something to eat ,have a break or even a pee.
You get hot very quickly and can't work a full shift without some change into fresh PPE.
Between patients the PPE may get contaminated covid patients still throw up all over you. they will need suction at some point.
So a face shield is of little use if you can see though it. Gowns get damp as do the masks so they are then of little use.
It may get damaged so needs changing. It has a set order for on and off so it may not be possible to change just the one item.
Covid patient can't get it that's true but the nurse can. Even if the room is full of the virus you still want to minimise the amount as much as possible. One way of helping to limit the viral load.

PPE only works if it's clean , dry, and undamaged none of which can the guaranteed to last a full shift.
The goal posts keep moving because the right one's had not been in place from the start.


----------



## MarkF (18 Apr 2020)

Often a patients can't/won't wear a mask, a good % have dementia, not a clue where they are or what is happening, they are scared and just want "it" away from their face.

We ran out of regular PPE gowns well over a week ago, these were the full sleeved, wrap around type with thumb holes, the plastic being a far thinner gauge than a supermarket bag, very inexpensive. Since then we've used surgeons gowns, these are very robust items, much thicker, velcro fastening, wrap around fit, proper elasticated cuffs etc. I don't see how they would offer any more protection though right now, I'd imagine they do offer a lot more protection from bodily fluids in theatre and would last a decent amount of time, they don't appear to me to be a disposal item, an item with a lifespan of a few minutes, I'd imagine they cost a few £ each and we are ploughing through them.

Somebody mentioned the army regarding PPE distribution and I think that they were right. This is not a time for some to hide, to ring fence positions/jobs, to not take control for fear of their name carrying some responsibility should things to awry.


----------



## Pale Rider (18 Apr 2020)

As regards vaccine take up, unlike flu, I think Covid has given the public a sufficiently big scare to make them want to take a vaccine.

It would help if it could be produced in tablet or liquid form.


----------



## Levo-Lon (18 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Right I can see your thinking but it's not black and white. So sorry for the length of the post.
> You can't assume none covid related ICU has not got covid so some level of PPE is needed.
> Just because they have they may have other none related infections on top of it.
> So won't want that spreading around. PPE in clinical environments is as much about protecting the staff as it is to protect the patient.
> ...




Thank you for that @tom73 
That now makes complete sense.


----------



## Milzy (18 Apr 2020)

This is true.


----------



## Levo-Lon (18 Apr 2020)

Milzy said:


> This is true.




I don't think it is.


----------



## Milzy (18 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> I don't think it is.


Oooooohhhhhhhh yes it is!! 😃


----------



## mjr (18 Apr 2020)

Is one of the symptoms of covid-19 channeling Widow Twanky?


----------



## PK99 (18 Apr 2020)

Milzy said:


> This is true.



By definition, it is not true, as it has not yet happened.

It is what you imagine might be true


----------



## tom73 (18 Apr 2020)

@MarkF brings up a good point about masks many just can't cope with them. 
A look of mainstream talk has been about the use of NIV which involves having a heavy duty mask strapped to your head.
They get hot and uncomfortable quickly and most can't take it for long. 
So they have to come off from time to time plus they are conscious so have to eat or drink. 
Anyone who has been fully trained in NIV will have had to wear one to fully understand what it really feels like. 
Your mouth get's dry so often the oxygen will be passed though water. 
Even well fitted mask will leak so added to the coughing is a fine moist mist. 
They still need suction, they may need nebs so all adds to the mix. 
NIV mostly happens outside ICU So even none ICU PPE will need changing often and none ICU staff will need full PPE.
All adding to the need for extra supply. 

A few of use have talked about the need for the Army and for one's in power to admit they need help with this. 
But sadly they look to be putting saving face above saving life.


----------



## Yellow Fang (18 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> The index case being in close proximity to one of those research labs is circumstantial evidence. It would need to be established that the first person with the disease definitively caught it there. That would probably need the genetics of coronaviruses at that lab to be very similar to the one in the wild.
> 
> Given that the last two coronavirus infections have emerged without the assistance of research labs, it's more likely that this is how SARS-CoV-2 came about. It has taken many years of work to show that MERS probably came from bats via camels, which may now be acting as a reservoir for MERS. Failure to find any intermediary species quickly does not mean one does not exist. Nor should the lack of any intermediary indicate that the virus must have come from a research lab - there are many viruses which don't have any intermediary (Lassa, the hantaviruses and probably Marburg are all examples of this).



Shi Zhengli, China's batwoman, was worried that the outbreak came from her lab, but she checked Corvid 19 against the samples they had in the lab and none matched, so it does not seem likely it came from that lab. There is another lab connected to their university; I assume they have done the same checks there. If the virus did escape from a lab, you'd expect patient zero to be a lab worker, and I expect they have all been tested.

The article says 3% of villagers near a big bat cave (Shitou Cave) were carrying coronavirus (not Corvid 19) antibodies. So patient zero could have been someone who caught the virus near one of these big bat caves.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...wn-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/


----------



## marinyork (18 Apr 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> As regards vaccine take up, unlike flu, I think Covid has given the public a sufficiently big scare to make them want to take a vaccine.
> 
> It would help if it could be produced in tablet or liquid form.



I saw the press conference yesterday. I saw Vallance talk. I'm sure the principles of who gets it are done on similar things.

A bit of this is replying to Bruce's post, but it makes me worry if someone says it'll be like a normal flu vaccine as that has all sorts of low level problems that aren't worried about on distribution and communication if replicated for covid-19 could spell disaster.

The list of people that would get a preliminary covid-19 dose needs to be absolutely watertight and communicated with clarity. Much better the communication thusfar. The normal flu vaccine is over 65s and a complicated list of conditions that has taken years to communicate and still there are problems. It needs to be communicated to many of the people on the standard flu list, that they probably wouldn't get a covid-19 vaccine straight away. Many of these people will be scared and so it needs communicating and reassuring. Similarly the 65-69 age group this needs to be communicated that there might be those substantially ahead of them in the queue - some will get really angry about this. The year of the flu where there was a 3 strain and 4 strain vaccine shows how the public can react - there were a lot of the public wanting to get the 4 strain vaccine and sod anyone else.

Probably not so relevant for the vaccine, but here and elsewhere the number of people seeking help for heart attacks and strokes has gone down by 50%. Some might be scared of someone giving them the vaccine. I don't really know the answer on that. I suspect a lot of people think they'll be 1-peak, that's my sense of talking to a lot of people. If it becomes obvious there's a second peak that'll have an effect on the sort of thing. What form of shielding/lockdown and other things are in effect will influence how people behave. For swine flu there was a 2nd peak which people forgot about. Will this be downplayed/forgotten about for covid-19 just like swine flu? Probably not, but it could change behaviours a lot.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (18 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> @MarkF brings up a good point about masks many just can't cope with them.
> A look of mainstream talk has been about the use of NIV which involves having a heavy duty mask strapped to your head.
> They get hot and uncomfortable quickly and most can't take it for long.
> So they have to come off from time to time plus they are conscious so have to eat or drink.
> ...



Correct me if I'm wrong please; but haven't the Army been assisting with PPE distribution since the end of March?


----------



## tom73 (18 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong please; but haven't the Army been assisting with PPE distribution since the end of March?


With the help of is the term old Matt likes to use. That's just a token measure they need to the running the show not just a side show. 
They understand all about shifting stuff fast but more importantly getting stuff to the right placers at the right time.


----------



## kingrollo (18 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> I saw the press conference yesterday. I saw Vallance talk. I'm sure the principles of who gets it are done on similar things.
> 
> A bit of this is replying to Bruce's post, but it makes me worry if someone says it'll be like a normal flu vaccine as that has all sorts of low level problems that aren't worried about on distribution and communication if replicated for covid-19 could spell disaster.
> 
> ...



So what that is saying is, cyclechaters get first dibs if theyve 'liked' enough of @Brompton Bruce posts ?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Apr 2020)

With ref to the @marinyork post above, _technically_ I'm an asthmatic. It's on my medical records that around 2000 I was having problems but I haven't had an asthma attack since 2003. I still get a letter every year inviting me to the clinic for my flu jab because I'm "on the list" though. 

I never go cos I'd feel like a fraud cheating someone out of something.


----------



## kingrollo (18 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> With ref to the @marinyork post above, _technically_ I'm an asthmatic. It's on my medical records that around 2000 I was having problems but I haven't had an asthma attack since 2003. I still get a letter every year inviting me to the clinic for my flu jab because I'm "on the list" though.
> 
> I never go cos I'd feel like a fraud cheating someone out of something.



your call - but there is more than enough standard flu jab to go around. - You are probably actually helping people if you do take the jab.


----------



## matticus (18 Apr 2020)

Why do folk worry about people (apparently healthy) flying in from foreign lands? Unless they come from areas with massive infection rates, surely they are no more of a threat than your neighbour?

(I do think flights should have a good reason; the holiday flight to France last week was quite rightly sent straight home again!)


<awaits schooling ...>


----------



## Julia9054 (18 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> With ref to the @marinyork post above, _technically_ I'm an asthmatic. It's on my medical records that around 2000 I was having problems but I haven't had an asthma attack since 2003. I still get a letter every year inviting me to the clinic for my flu jab because I'm "on the list" though.
> 
> I never go cos I'd feel like a fraud cheating someone out of something.


Are there usually a shortage of flu jabs? Possibly yours sits on a shelf and then gets chucked out if you don‘t have it


----------



## roubaixtuesday (18 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> Why do folk worry about people (apparently healthy) flying in from foreign lands? Unless they come from areas with massive infection rates, surely they are no more of a threat than your neighbour?
> 
> (I do think flights should have a good reason; the holiday flight to France last week was quite rightly sent straight home again!)
> 
> ...



More contacts = higher transmission rate. 
Less contracts = lower transmission rate. 

New country, every contact is new. 

Same reason for law against non essential travel here, and opprobrium against 2nd gone visits. 

I think.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> your call - but there is more than enough standard flu jab to go around. - You are probably actually helping people if you do take the jab.





Julia9054 said:


> Are there usually a shortage of flu jabs? Possibly yours sits on a shelf and then gets chucked out if you don‘t have it



Maybe. It just doesn't sit well taking something that I don't need. 

My point was more referring to "It needs to be communicated to many of the people on the standard flu list, that they probably wouldn't get a covid-19 vaccine straight away. Many of these people will be scared and so it needs communicating and reassuring. "


----------



## kingrollo (18 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Maybe. It just doesn't sit well taking something that I don't need.
> 
> My point was more referring to "It needs to be communicated to many of the people on the standard flu list, that they probably wouldn't get a covid-19 vaccine straight away. Many of these people will be scared and so it needs communicating and reassuring. "



Im pretty sure that will be repeated over and over - assuming we get a vaccine that is ?


----------



## marinyork (18 Apr 2020)

It depends what you define as a shortage. 

What the general public would define as one - yes there is usually a shortage. 

If you're willing to wait for later tranches or are mobile and can travel and/or pay, then no there aren't generally shortages, although the 4-strain vaccine of yesteryear was an interesting lesson when it was first introduced with two different vaccines on offer. I'm told for this last winter lessons were learnt.


----------



## GM (18 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> My face covering protects you and yours protects me.
> 
> View attachment 515822
> 
> This is what we need.




Yeah, but you've got to have the right logo's...


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (18 Apr 2020)

Some good news about this blasted virus -


----------



## Rocky (18 Apr 2020)

GM said:


> Yeah, but you've got to have the right logo's...
> 
> View attachment 515982


How did you know I was a Hammers’ fan, GM?


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## GM (18 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> How did you know I was a Hammers’ fan, GM?



Most well edgermercated people are!


----------



## marinyork (18 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So what that is saying is, cyclechaters get first dibs if theyve 'liked' enough of @Brompton Bruce posts ?



I've no idea what the criteria will be. I'm saying there's a huge difference between something that up to 25 million people are eligible for and is tried and tested and minor screw ups happen every year and something where if there is a vaccine this year it's likely to be very limited.

The criteria on age could be something like over 80s or 85s or those in care home settings. That's still big numbers. Once the metaphorical Michael Gove's daughter and all and sundry in the elite are bunged jabs and you have ICU staff, some other hospital staff, some care workers that's it, all gone. Then you've got the tsunami of other public sector workers sometimes which it's hard to quantify risk that there will be infinite demand for.

If you had an antibody test that preceded the jab, that also complicates matters and makes it a difficult decision. These are things that require a lot of thought and planning by government. I've not seen any discourse on it, but do you give the jab to men at a lower age than women as they appear for whatever reason (and endless discussion on this) to be more likely to admitted to ICU and more likely to die? How do we encourage ethnic minorities to get the jab and ensure it is fairly supplied?


----------



## matticus (18 Apr 2020)

<international flights> :



roubaixtuesday said:


> More contacts = higher transmission rate.
> Less contracts = lower transmission rate.
> New country, every contact is new.
> 
> ...


OK, fair enough; so a flight from Romania isn't any different to a flight between (say) Edinburgh and Stanstead.

(Just after I posted that, 2 gov/medical officials answered the issue on Any Questions! They said that scientific advice was that Social Distancing was what mattered, so incoming flights weren't inherently problematic. Also, lots of airlines are doing temperature checks pre-boarding, and many travellers voluntarily quarantine anyway.)


----------



## roubaixtuesday (18 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> <international flights> :
> 
> 
> OK, fair enough; so a flight from Romania isn't any different to a flight between (say) Edinburgh and Stanstead.
> ...



I think it's that currently the rate of community transmission here is so high that the small number of people flying in isn't significant. 

Of course, once we have it under control, and a rigorous test and trace program in place (don't hold your breath given our response so far), and flight numbers are increasing again, then, like China now, incoming flights become much more critical.


----------



## Poacher (18 Apr 2020)

Just seen on flightradar24, taken off from Dulles, Washington and landed at Sint Maarten, all details blocked.
i.e. no details of aircraft type, registration, owner or anything.
Ivanka on a weekend shopping jaunt?


----------



## mjr (18 Apr 2020)

Belgian rtbf news: fire in a care home, shortages for forgotten home nurses, hardware stores reopen to long queues (including interview with one woman who used the F word to describe the state of her bathroom needing repair - let's hear that on the BBC 1pm news!), uneven spread of cases, UVC decontamination of masks, Captain Tom, shutdown of Bangladesh textile industry, hopeful story from Rome, cancellation of Belgium's big agricultural shows, "One World: Together at Home" concert (which BBC1 will show only edited highlights of, almost a day late, because their 2am schedule is sooo full  ), psychological effects of lockdown, Operation #EtAprés? ("AndAfterwards?") asking what should change after lockdown


----------



## marinyork (18 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Belgian rtbf news: fire in a care home, shortages for forgotten home nurses, hardware stores reopen to long queues (including interview with one woman who used the F word to describe the state of her bathroom needing repair - let's hear that on the BBC 1pm news!), uneven spread of cases, UVC decontamination of masks, Captain Tom, shutdown of Bangladesh textile industry, hopeful story from Rome, cancellation of Belgium's big agricultural shows, "One World: Together at Home" concert (which BBC1 will show only edited highlights of, almost a day late, because their 2am schedule is sooo full  ), psychological effects of lockdown, Operation #EtAprés? ("AndAfterwards?") asking what should change after lockdown



What's the psychological deployment/opinion in Belgium generally?


----------



## Low Gear Guy (18 Apr 2020)

Poacher said:


> Just seen on flightradar24, taken off from Dulles, Washington and landed at Sint Maarten, all details blocked.
> i.e. no details of aircraft type, registration, owner or anything.
> Ivanka on a weekend shopping jaunt?


The worldometer website* shows Sint Maarten as a hotbed of coronavirus. Shopping trips not recommended.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus


* Table of cases, sorted by fatalities per head of population.


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## tom73 (18 Apr 2020)

WHO issue a word of warning over antibody testing
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52335210


----------



## mjr (18 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> What's the psychological deployment/opinion in Belgium generally?


Seems similar to here, using online video and social media to keep in touch, but the AndAfter movement was presented as part of the reaction. #QuestionNonConfinee is another hashtag to search if interested, but maybe that should be discussed on the post-coronavirus world thread?


----------



## mjr (18 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> WHO issue a wood of warning over antibody testing
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52335210


Norwegian wood?

Isn't it good?

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to sleep in the bath.


----------



## nickyboy (18 Apr 2020)

I've intentionally left this thread for a few days. I'm popping back to raise a couple of points for consideration

First, UK deaths are considered to be tracking Italy. That's bad of course. But the UK lockdown has been much less severe and there are no signs of it being tightened. Tougher lockdowns have serious impacts on the economy and broader health issues, neither of which have hit countries yet. I suspect our underlying strategy (that the government would never admit) is a looser lockdown which helps us in some ways but also costs X thousands additional lives. 

Second is that it's very tempting to look enviously at countries like Germany and say why couldn't we manage the pandemic as well as they have. We're a tenth or so of the way through the whole pandemic cycle. Only the first lap of a ten lap race. Only at the end will we be able to determine who got it right and who got it wrong. It's far too early to call right now


----------



## Salty seadog (18 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> How did you know I was a Hammers’ fan, GM?





GM said:


> Most well edgermercated people are!



Hmmm.


----------



## Poacher (18 Apr 2020)

Poacher said:


> Just seen on flightradar24, taken off from Dulles, Washington and landed at Sint Maarten, all details blocked.
> i.e. no details of aircraft type, registration, owner or anything.
> Ivanka on a weekend shopping jaunt?


"Blocked" aircraft now returning from Sint Maarten, currently just Northwest of Bermuda and heading North.
Does any other flight tracker carry more details (than none) of identification?

Edit: Radarbox says LXJ596 Saint Martin to Fredericton (YFC) CL35 N596FX, whatever that means.
Perhaps we'll never know the purpose of these flights.


----------



## mjr (18 Apr 2020)

Broadcast and online streams for tonight's 8 hour gig: https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/connect/togetherathome/#howtowatch

The surprise there IMO is Bloomberg TV (freesat) 2-4am which is a business news channel. France Inter and RTL2 used to be audible on Long Wave in much of Southern England and Wales too. Edit: but both have shut down, so you need to visit www.franceinter.fr or www.rtl2.fr instead  Edit2: it's not rtl2's main stream but another on 6play.fr


----------



## DaveReading (18 Apr 2020)

Poacher said:


> Edit: Radarbox says LXJ596 Saint Martin to Fredericton (YFC) CL35 N596FX, whatever that means.



LXJ = Flexjet (www.flexjet.com), a US fractional ownership operator (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_ownership)

CL35 = Bombardier Challenger 350 (9-passenger business jet, https://businessaircraft.bombardier.com/en/aircraft/challenger-350)

So, on balance, probably not Ivanka.


----------



## Venod (18 Apr 2020)

Absofarkinglutely.

Before you start blaming individuals who in your own opinion are not obeying the rules have a read of this...
As this crisis deepens and the death toll mounts, a narrative is going to emerge that will be very seductive to many of us. It will all be the fault of “the people.”
The people who failed to practice social distancing. The people who hoarded. The people who didn’t listen to the government. The people who didn’t listen to the science. The people. Those selfish people. Look at them in their parks. The government will start trotting this out. Right wing media will push it hard. Police forces have already begun assigning blame to “the people”.
Many of us will feel the tug of this seductive reasoning. Our brains will be tempted to lash out at “the people.”
When we do, we must remember some things: -
The government had 3 months to prepare. This was a train coming down the tracks. At first we were told the plan was herd immunity. Then it wasn’t.
As the first few people started to die, Boris Johnson boasting of shaking the hands of hospitalised coronavirus patients. This was a week before the lockdown.
Why weren’t we in lockdown like other European countries, some asked. Trust us, they said.
Then we got the lockdown order. What did they say? The initial government advice was only “essential workers could travel to work”. A day later this was changed to “essential travel for work.” See the difference?
They told us to practice social distancing as MPs crowded around each other in the House of Commons.
They said only the old and immuno-comprised were at risk. Then healthy twenty-somethings started dying.
They said the NHS could cope, then they started building field hospitals in stadiums.
They said the NHS had the protective equipment it needed, then we logged on to social media.
They said we were in it together, then they got tested before the front-line workers.
They said there was no such thing as society and it was survival of the fittest, then said we needed to show solidarity.
They clapped when they voted against a pay-rise for NHS nurses in 2017, then they clapped for the NHS.
They spent a decade telling us cuts were needed to save the economy, then they said the only way to save the economy was to spend trillions.
They spent a decade insisting £94 was enough to live on, then admitted it wasn’t. - They got us to vote for Brexit by rubbishing “experts,” then told us to trust experts.
They told us retail workers were low skilled, then said they were key workers.
They said homelessness was sad but inevitable, then they order it ended overnight.
So yes, “the people” ended up a little farking confused. Because our so-called leaders have utterly failed to lead. They don't know what they stand for; they couldn’t believe the world could change so quickly; they resisted “alarmist” when the only proper response was to be alarmed; they had no idea how to use the power of the state, having spent a decade dismantling it; they were arrogant and complacent, wallowing in privilege.
The fundamental duty of government is to keep us safe. That’s what we pay them to do. They have failed.
As the death toll mounts, remember that our leaders are to blame, not “the people,” and we must resist the temptation to blame each other.

Author Nathan Williams


----------



## AuroraSaab (18 Apr 2020)

Blaming the government (of whatever persuasion) for everything is no different to not blaming them for anything. We all have a level of agency in this crisis and should not shirk our personal responsibility to keep ourselves and others safe.

In due course of course there should be an inquiry into how things could have/should have been done differently, but until then we are in unprecedented times and I don't think presenting this as 'them and us' is particularly helpful.


----------



## kingrollo (18 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I've intentionally left this thread for a few days. I'm popping back to raise a couple of points for consideration
> 
> First, UK deaths are considered to be tracking Italy. That's bad of course. But the UK lockdown has been much less severe and there are no signs of it being tightened. Tougher lockdowns have serious impacts on the economy and broader health issues, neither of which have hit countries yet. I suspect our underlying strategy (that the government would never admit) is a looser lockdown which helps us in some ways but also costs X thousands additional lives.
> 
> Second is that it's very tempting to look enviously at countries like Germany and say why couldn't we manage the pandemic as well as they have. We're a tenth or so of the way through the whole pandemic cycle. Only the first lap of a ten lap race. Only at the end will we be able to determine who got it right and who got it wrong. It's far too early to call right now


It's far to early to call - as you say we don't know the duration. But the UK handling of it to date has been poor. Questionable decisions at all stages IMO.

It was never going to be easy or painless but ignoring WHO guidance - failure to act on the Italy experience are feck ups of the highest order imo 

....and I keep saying this - but the government seems to have more direction since Johnson departed the scene.


----------



## kingrollo (18 Apr 2020)

Calls for Hancock to resign - can't see it myself - he's not inspiring confidence true - but I think most people will see it as a tough gig .


----------



## RoadRider400 (18 Apr 2020)

Venod said:


> Absofarkinglutely.
> 
> Before you start blaming individuals who in your own opinion are not obeying the rules have a read of this...
> As this crisis deepens and the death toll mounts, a narrative is going to emerge that will be very seductive to many of us. It will all be the fault of “the people.”
> ...


I presume you and Nathan voted Labour last year then.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Apr 2020)

In case anyone struggles with what 2 meters means


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## nickyboy (18 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It's far to early to call - as you say we don't know the duration. But the UK handling of it to date has been poor. Questionable decisions at all stages IMO.
> 
> It was never going to be easy or painless but ignoring WHO guidance - failure to act on the Italy experience are feck ups of the highest order imo
> 
> ....and I keep saying this - but the government seems to have more direction since Johnson departed the scene.


I'm not a qualified epidemiologist so I find it impossible to assess, critically, the UK government's response. All I can do is wait until all ten laps have been run and then see where we came


----------



## Accy cyclist (18 Apr 2020)

I'm just reading in the lefties favourite 'rip it up for bog roll,or use it to line the budgie's cage' tabloid,that a well known 'celebrity' couple worth 335 million quid have furloughed the wife's company's 40 workers wages. But i thought 'we were all in this together'?


----------



## screenman (19 Apr 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> I'm just reading in the lefties favourite 'rip it up for bog roll,or use it to line the budgie's cage' tabloid,that a well known 'celebrity' couple worth 335 million quid have furloughed the wife's company's 40 workers wages. But i thought 'we were all in this together'?



I am not understanding the problem there.


----------



## oldfatfool (19 Apr 2020)

Couple of issues I have that I would love resolving, if a couple of friends bump into each other in the park and have a natter whilst 2m apart it would be deemed unacceptable and they could be fined, how come dozens of coppers, firemen and hospital staff can find their way to a hospital car park every Thursday night to stand around clapping and dancing and video it for TV adverts and YouTube?

Secondly I would like to know or have announced each day the actual total number of deaths registered in the UK as well as the number attributed to covid, on average 1k to 1.5k deaths were registered every day in the UK (depending on time of year) it will be telling to see if this number as increased by 900 a day, but I suspect it won't have and the truth will go against the narrative. Of course if when stats are produced the total death rate in the UK is little altered the government will claim a great success and lock down was a brilliant idea, if on the other hand the numbers are massive then it will be people not obeying lock down that are at fault.


----------



## oldfatfool (19 Apr 2020)

screenman said:


> I am not understanding the problem there.


Same problem as the taxpayer bailing out beardy Branson.....


----------



## Venod (19 Apr 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> I presume you and Nathan voted Labour last year then.



Of course you are free to presume whatever you want, I thought the piece by Nathan had some truth to it, that is why I posted it, not for any political reason, you don't have to agree, other parties are available.


----------



## screenman (19 Apr 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Same problem as the taxpayer bailing out beardy Branson.....



I thought the airline had been losing money recently, I guess you and me would just walk away at this opportunity.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Apr 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Secondly I would like to know or have announced each day the actual total number of deaths registered in the UK as well as the number attributed to covid, on average 1k to 1.5k deaths were registered every day in the UK (depending on time of year) it will be telling to see if this number as increased by 900 a day, but I suspect it won't have and the truth will go against the narrative



Some data to inform your conspiracy narrative. Doubtless it was massaged by lizard men or somesuch.


----------



## Beebo (19 Apr 2020)

its increasingly clear that a vaccine is many months away and the antibody testing isn’t working either. 
So the government are going to have to somehow let the virus work through the population in a controlled manner. We will end up with a second and third wave hitting us.


----------



## tom73 (19 Apr 2020)

Anything is possible even with a vaccine we may see new cases as no-one at the moment is sure how long any immunity may last.


----------



## mjr (19 Apr 2020)

Beebo said:


> its increasingly clear that a vaccine is many months away and the antibody testing isn’t working either.
> So the government are going to have to somehow let the virus work through the population in a controlled manner. We will end up with a second and third wave hitting us.


But there's no certainty yet that the virus will "work through the population" rather than take root, keep reinfecting and keep killing, albeit at a slower rate once the most vulnerable have died in early waves, as the WHO warned a few days ago.

That's part of the reason why the Oxford vaccine is based on another virus, believed to elevate antibodies longer.


----------



## oldfatfool (19 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Some data to inform your conspiracy narrative. Doubtless it was massaged by lizard men or somesuch.
> 
> View attachment 516188


Yes just checked again🤐 when I last looked the figure for 3 April was not available and upto mid March the death rate was less than the 5yr average.


----------



## rualexander (19 Apr 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Secondly I would like to know or have announced each day the actual total number of deaths registered in the UK as well as the number attributed to covid, on average 1k to 1.5k deaths were registered every day in the UK (depending on time of year) it will be telling to see if this number as increased by 900 a day, but I suspect it won't have and the truth will go against the narrative. Of course if when stats are produced the total death rate in the UK is little altered the government will claim a great success and lock down was a brilliant idea, if on the other hand the numbers are massive then it will be people not obeying lock down that are at fault.



EuroMomo site shows excess all cause death rates for most european countries over the past few years, in relation to the baseline death rates.
https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html
It can be seen that the initial spike of the covid19 deaths is comparable to a normal seasonal spike (flu?), but it is steeper than the normal seasonal spike and it is only limited by the introduction of lockdowns, otherwise it would have continued spiking to far higher levels.


----------



## oldfatfool (19 Apr 2020)

Bit of a farce though, i think we are one of the few countries where all work is acceptable rather than just essential work? Not sure if standing about in a factory is safer than sitting or sunbathing in a park


----------



## mjr (19 Apr 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Bit of a farce though, i think we are one of the few countries where all work is acceptable rather than just essential work? Not sure if standing about in a factory is safer than sitting or sunbathing in a park


In most factories, you're with the same people every day, but in parks, you mix with random people every time. The factory is also probably more regulated than most parksbecause idiot councils have shut them instead of marking one way systems and 2m ladders.


----------



## marinyork (19 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> But there's no certainty yet that the virus will "work through the population" rather than take root, keep reinfecting and keep killing, albeit at a slower rate once the most vulnerable have died in early waves, as the WHO warned a few days ago.
> 
> That's part of the reason why the Oxford vaccine is based on another virus, believed to elevate antibodies longer.



The Oxford stuff's very clever and relying on prior work and forethought and starting production before the results are in.

Say wave 2 happened around the end of September and we had peak 2 then, it's not clear what completely unrealistic perfect circumstances gets us. Say the most ridiculous assumptions imaginable happen. Say 1 million vaccines are ready and they work, they are given orderly and quickly to the most vulnerable (whatever that is, over 85s, particular groups). How many deaths does this stop? Say the true death rate is 2000 a day at the moment in this peak. With a vaccine does that get us down to 200 a day say? Or lower or higher? What happens with different regions where there are different infection rates such as Italy where there's a lot of evidence sadly now that this is the case. Can we have lockdowns of say Northern Ireland (that one's just picked as it appears thankfully to be doing slightly better) or the Scottish highlands or at local levels say half of Manchester.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm not a qualified epidemiologist so I find it impossible to assess, critically, the UK government's response. All I can do is wait until all ten laps have been run and then see where we came


No but lots of well qualified people are calling it out right now - are the people at WHO qualified enough for you ?


----------



## Blue Hills (19 Apr 2020)

Cycled round a deserted central london yesterday.

The lamposts on Whitehall were full of these.

Not sure what they are all about/who is behind them.

Apologies for appalling pic.


----------



## Accy cyclist (19 Apr 2020)

screenman said:


> I am not understanding the problem there.


Well,it's like this premiership footballers thing. These very wealthy clubs expect the taxpayer to pay their non playing staffs wages while they still pay their at the moment playing,but non playing players say £100,000 a week. If you can afford to pay the players that much,you can afford to pay the minimum wage groundsman or tea lady's wages as well! This is why footballers are getting it in the neck at the moment. If those wealthy clubs didn't take advantage of the furloughed scheme not many (including me) would be questioning their 'ridiculous' wages.

My point about those i've mentioned is that if they are worth £335 million they can afford to pay their staffs wages as well. Why should the taxpayer pay??!! This furloughed thing is up for abuse. Then on the other hand we have small business's that can't claim it for technicality reasons.

If you want i'll link the article for you to read. This comment following the article sums it up for me!

_Doris Kent__, Gravesend, Åland Islands, less than a minute ago

Typical case of taking advantage of a scheme that has been implemented to help small businesses that doesn't have that sort of capital to survive this pandemic. Greedy, selfish individuals._


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Apr 2020)

Beebo said:


> its increasingly clear that a vaccine is many months away and the antibody testing isn’t working either.
> So the government are going to have to somehow let the virus work through the population in a controlled manner. We will end up with a second and third wave hitting us.



I think this too. Herd immunity was the first plan and when that was deemed unacceptable this shower have sat on their hands and spouted flowery words and promises of jam tomorrow in order to abusive herd immunity by stealth.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (19 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Cycled round a deserted central london yesterday.
> 
> The lamposts on Whitehall were full of these.
> 
> ...



From
https://awesomemovement.co.uk/about/

(my bold)

"The Awesome Movement is to show our appreciation to *everyday heroes*, the people that show up when we are at our most vulnerable and need help the most. The people that *risk their lives* to save others and people who *dedicate their lives* to care for us all.

The movement is not just aimed at the frontline people, but also the people behind the scenes, answering calls. *Organising logistics* and *supporting the people we see every day*."

Maybe they're taking the piss?


----------



## Blue Hills (19 Apr 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> I think this too. Herd immunity was the first plan and when that was deemed unacceptable this shower have sat on their hands and spouted flowery words and promises of jam tomorrow in order to abusive herd immunity by stealth.


mm - what would be your strategy?


----------



## Blue Hills (19 Apr 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> From
> https://awesomemovement.co.uk/about/
> 
> (my bold)
> ...


Thanks - I wasn't really up to googling it - following the link at the bottom of the notice.

A few questions.
I wonder where their money comes from?
If they are "official" I wouldn't have thought they would be allowed to promote Boris like that?
If they aren't official, I wouldn't have thought it legal to go plastering the streets, especially in the cente of government with all those notices?
If they aren't officially sanctioned, wouldn't one be totally within one's rights to remove them as litter?


----------



## Andy in Germany (19 Apr 2020)

An article from The Times on the government's response to the Pandemic. Bearing in mind this is a normally Tory supporting newspaper, it is very critical of the Tories and Johnson's handling of the crisis.

Main points:


Scientists and epidemiologists had warned that this was the number 1 threat to security in the UK, and it was a question of "when", not "if"
Preparations were well funded right up until the start of the "Austerity" policy by the Tories, whereupon preparation dropped off a cliff, leaving the UK unprepared.
The UKGov ignored warnings repeatedly and pretended to the public everything would be fine.
The UKGov also failed to prepare after the pandemic was obviously spreading, either with measures for protecting the public or getting medical equipment.

The UKgov has managed to avoid taking responsibility for its policies for a decade now but this may be where the chickens come home to roost: they can't blame this on people chatting in the park.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Apr 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> I think this too. Herd immunity was the first plan and when that was deemed unacceptable this shower have sat on their hands and spouted flowery words and promises of jam tomorrow in order to abusive herd immunity by stealth.


The app is stealth herd immunity IMO. Just something to give people - but on the face of it it seems totally useless.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> An article from The Times on the government's response to the Pandemic. Bearing in mind this is a normally Tory supporting newspaper, it is very critical of the Tories and Johnson's handling of the crisis.
> 
> Main points:
> 
> ...


Agree with everything accept the last part. The Tories won't be brought to book. Protect the NHS is a work of genuis.


----------



## Andy in Germany (19 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Agree with everything accept the last part. The Tories won't be brought to book. Protect the NHS is a work of genuis.



That last paragraph was me trying to be optimistic: it doesn't happen often and now you've ruined it all.


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> mm - what would be your strategy?



You first.


----------



## Blue Hills (19 Apr 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> You first.


I don't pretend to have an easy alternative.
You implied that if only the powers that be called on you or signed up to cyclechat, we'd be on top of this hell.

(am not excusing lack of kit)


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> I don't pretend to have an easy alternative.
> You implied that if only the powers that be called on you or signed up to cyclechat, we'd be on top of this hell.
> 
> (am not excusing lack of kit)



I don't think I did.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Apr 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Couple of issues I have that I would love resolving, if a couple of friends bump into each other in the park and have a natter whilst 2m apart it would be deemed unacceptable and they could be fined, how come dozens of coppers, firemen and hospital staff can find their way to a hospital car park every Thursday night to stand around clapping and dancing and video it for TV adverts and YouTube?
> 
> Secondly I would like to know or have announced each day the actual total number of deaths registered in the UK as well as the number attributed to covid, on average 1k to 1.5k deaths were registered every day in the UK (depending on time of year) it will be telling to see if this number as increased by 900 a day, but I suspect it won't have and the truth will go against the narrative. Of course if when stats are produced the total death rate in the UK is little altered the government will claim a great success and lock down was a brilliant idea, if on the other hand the numbers are massive then it will be people not obeying lock down that are at fault.


Not sure what a total daily death rate would tell you tbh. Less people are probably dying in road accident s for example .

My only gripe is there should be a standard method of counting - we only count hospital deaths - and there were reports last week of people being refused an hospital admission - as they were probably going to die anyway - and people in ambulance s not being resussed ...

Also we aren't including care home deaths where as some European countries are.....


----------



## oldfatfool (19 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Thanks - I wasn't really up to googling it - following the link at the bottom of the notice.
> 
> A few questions.
> I wonder where their money comes from?
> ...


It's only illegal when it doesn't support the official narrative, hence why police, ambulance, fire service and general public can gather in a public place with no spacing to clap on a Thursday night. Everyone knows viruses take a break at 7.55pm for 15 mins, right?


----------



## kingrollo (19 Apr 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> It's only illegal when it doesn't support the official narrative, hence why police, ambulance, fire service and general public can gather in a public place with no spacing to clap on a Thursday night. Everyone knows viruses take a break at 7.55pm for 15 mins, right?


Just too many people came out to clap. It was unfortunate - but for the police to wade in and break it up would have made matters a whole lot worse in numerous ways.


----------



## Andy in Germany (19 Apr 2020)

One reason the UKgov only counts hospital deaths, they're trying to hide the true numbers, which may be 5 times the official figure.

As of 19.04.2020 the official UK death toll is 15464. If thee claims in the article above are correct, that would put the actual figure at over 70 000. The Italian death toll is 23227 and Spain is 20043. Germany, which does include care homes, is currently reporting 4924 deaths.

No amount of blaming people for not following the guidelines can cover this.

[Edit: Looks like my maths was wrong, not for the first time, so it's not great but not as horrendous as I thought, thanks @Rusty Nails for the correction in simple terms...]


----------



## Mugshot (19 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> I don't pretend to have an easy alternative.
> You implied that if only the powers that be called on you or signed up to cyclechat, we'd be on top of this hell.
> 
> (am not excusing lack of kit)


No he didn't, not even remotely.


----------



## Rezillo (19 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> One reason the UKgov only counts hospital deaths, they're trying to hide the true numbers, which may be 5 times the official figure.
> 
> As of 19.04.2020 the official UK death toll is 15464. If thee claims in the article above are correct, that would put the actual figure at over 70 000. The Italian death toll is 23227 and Spain is 20043. Germany, which does include care homes, is currently reporting 4924 deaths.
> 
> No amount of blaming people for not following the guidelines can cover this.



That 5x figure is for death in care homes, not the hospital deaths that currently make up much of the 15464 figure. 

If there was a 70,000 death toll in recent weeks, it would show up in the weekly all deaths stats. The weekly all deaths were largely following the seasonal average until week 13. Week 14 was a jump of 6,000 above the seasonal average. Some 3500 deaths of that 6000 were down to Covid-19 certificated deaths, indicating that there may welll be more Covid-19 deaths 'within' that 2500 gap, in the absence of cold weather and flu to account for it. 

That's probably where the care home deaths will be for that week, albeit not all of that gap. The next set of weekly figures may be even grimmer.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Apr 2020)

This morning (Sunday) I did a 25 mile taking about 1hr 45 - in that time I saw 3 hearses - very grim


----------



## oldfatfool (19 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Just too many people came out to clap. It was unfortunate - but for the police to wade in and break it up would have made matters a whole lot worse in numerous ways.


Come off it bridges in London have been lined with police cars and fire engines and the public, your not telling me they all live in the middle of a bridge or the po po just happen to have been crossing it at the time. It was an organised event by the authorities at the least. Not a case of applauding the NHS and essential workers but a case of self congratulation and being seen to be doing it, That is what grates my tits, that and BJ and his tart in their country residence, don't care if he is recouping he shouldn't have been allowed to travel let alone her, if I go into self isolation or recovery I know couldn't travel to my country residence, one rule for one...


----------



## MarkF (19 Apr 2020)

It's getting too much, Doctor, nurse, cleaner whatever, it's their job and like every other job, it's not sunny every day. We'll be clapping firemen for attending fires next. It took off with some army guy saying the building of a field hospital was their "Somme", it should have been called out right there and then.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Apr 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Come off it bridges in London have been lined with police cars and fire engines and the public, your not telling me they all live in the middle of a bridge or the po po just happen to have been crossing it at the time. It was an organised event by the authorities at the least. Not a case of applauding the NHS and essential workers but a case of self congratulation and being seen to be doing it, That is what grates my tits, that and BJ and his tart in their country residence, don't care if he is recouping he shouldn't have been allowed to travel let alone her, if I go into self isolation or recovery I know couldn't travel to my country residence, one rule for one...


.

That's a very all embracing post. Rightly or Wrongly Boris Johnson - the police and the fire service aren't imo the general public - at times they may have to break social distancing.

If you want a stick to beat Johnson with - how about shaking hands with CV patients - or allowing 250,000 people to assemble at Cheltenham - days before the lockdown....

It would be a brave Bobby/fireman/policitan who slates 60 seconds of appluase for the NHS

.


----------



## tom73 (19 Apr 2020)

So the PPE from Turkey has been held up so wont be arriving today. 
The RAF are on standby incase it get's held up in the next few days.
So if that's the case why not fly it back in first place


----------



## Blue Hills (19 Apr 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> It's only illegal when it doesn't support the official narrative, hence why police, ambulance, fire service and general public can gather in a public place with no spacing to clap on a Thursday night. Everyone knows viruses take a break at 7.55pm for 15 mins, right?


Well i don't think that had anything to do with a narrative, or conspiracy from anyone. It was just daft. The cock-up theory in action.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> It's getting too much, Doctor, nurse, cleaner whatever, it's their job and like every other job, it's not sunny every day. We'll be clapping firemen for attending fires next. It took off with some army guy saying the building of a field hospital was their "Somme", it should have been called out right there and then.


First couple of times it was OK - but now I think it's being used to cover asses.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> So the PPE from Turkey has been held up so wont be arriving today.
> The RAF are on standby incase it get's held up in the next few days.
> So if that's the case why not fly it back in first place


Question is was it ever arriving today. Or was it just another thing for MH to say .?


----------



## tom73 (19 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Question is was it ever arriving today. Or was it just another thing for MH to say .?


Well that's the question funny how when Hancock was getting in the neck in the morning he never said anything. 
Then as if my magic hours later we got told about it. 
Until it arrives and is unpacked and tested it go good to anyone anyway. 
Last week a massive orders on it's way from China turned out to be only 24,000


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> One reason the UKgov only counts hospital deaths, they're trying to hide the true numbers, which may be 5 times the official figure.
> 
> As of 19.04.2020 the official UK death toll is 15464. If thee claims in the article above are correct, that would put the actual figure at over 70 000. The Italian death toll is 23227 and Spain is 20043. Germany, which does include care homes, is currently reporting 4924 deaths.
> 
> No amount of blaming people for not following the guidelines can cover this.



This is just scaremongering I'm afraid."Could be","May be", "Might be", "Estimate", "If" somehow translates as "Govt trying to hide figures".


----------



## kingrollo (19 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> This is just scaremongering I'm afraid."Could be","May be", "Might be", "Estimate", "If" somehow translates as "Govt trying to hide figures.


Really ? If the govt by its own admission is only counting hospital deaths - I would have thought it pretty reasonable for other people to estimate the true figure. 
The govt could put a stop to it at a stroke if they wished.


----------



## oldfatfool (19 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> .
> 
> That's a very all embracing post. Rightly or Wrongly Boris Johnson - the police and the fire service aren't imo the general public - at times they may have to break social distancing.
> 
> ...


It's the fact they obviously travelled to a pre arranged spot! And as for the po po not being general public, I can't think of a worse group of people deliberately flouting gathering laws when it is the po po who are then going to mingle with the greatest cross section and number of the general public. If any group of people should be practising social distancing and avoiding unnecessary contact then it is the popo


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Apr 2020)

The"popo"?

Really?


----------



## oldfatfool (19 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> I think you need to get the tinfoil out.
> And use what's left to up your tart baking.
> Your other use of the word "tart" i"m not going to object to.
> It's just pathetic.
> Enjoy your tarts.


I do enjoy my tarts, its what I call the wife as well 🤣


----------



## marinyork (19 Apr 2020)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUtVkdMZshM


Farrar talks vaccines.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The"popo"?
> 
> Really?



Son of Po Ping?

https://kungfupanda.fandom.com/wiki/Po


----------



## kingrollo (19 Apr 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> It's the fact they obviously travelled to a pre arranged spot! And as for the po po not being general public, I can't think of a worse group of people deliberately flouting gathering laws when it is the po po who are then going to mingle with the greatest cross section and number of the general public. If any group of people should be practising social distancing and avoiding unnecessary contact then it is the popo


What would you have liked to happen ?

The gathering to be broken up

The gathering to be broken up whilst the police practice social distancing ?

In general the stay at home message is being well observed in a country of 67m those disobeying it are numbering hundreds - per a police spokesman.

We are loosing around 800 people a day and our NHS staff are running out of protective equipment - a few people standing on a bridge for 5 minutes tops - shouldn't IMO being anywhere near the top of things to worry about.


----------



## Andy in Germany (19 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> This is just scaremongering I'm afraid."Could be","May be", "Might be", "Estimate", "If" somehow translates as "Govt trying to hide figures".



That's easily solved: UKgov could start testing more and recording all deaths, then we'll know the real figure. Until they do, then this will continue to be a problem.


----------



## Rusty Nails (19 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> One reason the UKgov only counts hospital deaths, they're trying to hide the true numbers, which may be 5 times the official figure.
> 
> As of 19.04.2020 the official UK death toll is 15464. If thee claims in the article above are correct, that would put the actual figure at over 70 000. The Italian death toll is 23227 and Spain is 20043. Germany, which does include care homes, is currently reporting 4924 deaths.
> 
> No amount of blaming people for not following the guidelines can cover this.



I am sorry Andy but you have totally misread the article. The five times estimate is for the deaths in care homes, not total Covid-19 deaths. It is still bad, and totally unacceptable, but 'only' adds about 6000 to the total, not the 55,000 you imply.

Your default position seems to be 'UK approach bad' and you appear to look, in this case, for possible 'facts' to support that position.

The facts are bad enough without making them up.


----------



## mjr (19 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Until it arrives and is unpacked and tested it go good to anyone anyway.
> Last week a massive orders on it's way from China turned out to be only 24,000


Have our lot bought a load of Chinese fakes to distract from the shortages with a good old "naughty Chinese con artists" story yet like some other governments are suspected of doing?


----------



## Andy in Germany (19 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I am sorry Andy but you have totally misread the article. The five times estimate is for the deaths in care homes, not total Covid-19 deaths. It is still bad, and totally unacceptable, but 'only' adds about 6000 to the total, not the 55,000 you imply.



Ah, that makes far more sense, thanks for the correction; the basic problem that I'm not that good at maths...


----------



## Rusty Nails (19 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> I was going to click "like" then you included that unnecessary personal attack
> 
> Would you consider removing it so I can, please? I'll then delete this.



Perhaps it was unnecessarily ott, but I'll keep it in just to show my nasty side.

Of course I'm not going to change it just for one like, what sort of boy do you think I am? 😉


----------



## Blue Hills (19 Apr 2020)

> Blue Hills said:
> I think you need to get the tinfoil out.
> And use what's left to up your tart baking.
> Your other use of the word "tart" i"m not going to object to.
> ...


I




oldfatfool said:


> I do enjoy my tarts, its what I call the wife as well 🤣


You can call the wife what you want if she's into it -no probs at all - but use certain terms about others and naturally could be interpreted certain ways. And appear to say things about you.

and I still think you are indulging in conspiracy theories - hence my justified tinfoil comment.


----------



## oldfatfool (19 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What would you have liked to happen ?
> 
> The gathering to be broken up
> 
> ...


Whatever


----------



## oldfatfool (19 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> I
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not sure how pointing out a fact is conspiracy theory but..... Whatever


----------



## Blue Hills (19 Apr 2020)

well after two whatevers I think we can can move on.


----------



## Stephenite (19 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Have our lot bought a load of Chinese fakes to distract from the shortages with a good old "naughty Chinese con artists" story yet like some other governments are suspected of doing?


Are you making that up?


----------



## mjr (19 Apr 2020)

Stephenite said:


> Are you making that up?


I wish. https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5948899 is the fakes story I posted about. I can't find the accusation it was deliberate just now. I thought someone reporting news from another country (maybe @marinyork @Andy in Germany @Unkraut or another) had seen it elsewhere too. Either there's a lot of scammers and a lot of gullible government purchasing officers, or something a bit odd is happening.


----------



## Jenkins (19 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> I wish. https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5948899 is the fakes story I posted about. I can't find the accusation it was deliberate just now. I thought someone reporting news from another country (maybe @marinyork @Andy in Germany @Unkraut or another) had seen it elsewhere too. Either there's a lot of scammers and a lot of gullible government purchasing officers, or something a bit odd is happening.


I can't provide a link as it was on an internal work email, but the MHRA have issued a warning about fake "CE" certificates being used by the less scrupulous Chinese manufacturers of PPE.


----------



## Stephenite (20 Apr 2020)

You're linking to your own post and, what appears to be, a screenshot of a tv screen. I did post something myself a couple of weeks ago maybe https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5950771.

Could I get away with linking to another article in Norwegian? https://www.aftenposten.no/verden/i/vQ7Pnw/tilbud-om-munnbind-er-blitt-det-nye-nigeriabrevet? This is about a German procurer almost being fleeced by Nigerians.

I don't know if these stories are true but I would tend to believe them.

Edited to add correct link.


----------



## greenmark (20 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The"popo"?
> 
> Really?



FYI it's what they're known as here in HK. I suppose it is better than "the fuzz" or some other terms.

As for the point of how the popo should keep social distancing, this local from Saturday, when they were tasked to enforce social distancing and break up a crowd that had gathered around a stall selling face masks:


----------



## Mugshot (20 Apr 2020)

Well, according to this (Tory) MP, it would seem that lack of PPE is just a story made up by the media. We've even got a pic to prove it.


View: https://twitter.com/mariacaulfield/status/1251978611730628615?s=20


----------



## The Crofted Crest (20 Apr 2020)

Maria Caulfield, hey? 


View: https://twitter.com/mariacaulfield/status/1252104005704171520


----------



## tom73 (20 Apr 2020)

mmmmm that's a bit of pointless tweet with no background as to which area and which patients.
She's working with it's impossible to back up what she is saying.
Note she not just a tory MP but a assistant government whip. So it's her job to maintain the party line.

She appears to have a Nursing background in cancer care.
She clearly not seen that Sue Ryder may have to stop palliative care within days if no PPE arrives.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-52331034

She also voted to maintain the Cap on Nursers pay weeks after hosting an event supporting the RCN "scrap the Cap" campaign.


----------



## mjr (20 Apr 2020)

Swiss RTS news: petitions being raised against reopenings of schools next week, survey about whether older people feel discriminated against, 4m SFR for public masks but complaints from politicians that the price is too high, more bailout worries, worries about cancellations of summer holidays and public reaction, 

Le Journal de 8h - La 1ere: Le Journal de 8h - Présenté par Vincent Stöcklin - 20.04.2020 https://www.rts.ch/la-1ere/programm...presente-par-vincent-stocklin-20-04-2020.html


----------



## glasgowcyclist (20 Apr 2020)

greenmark said:


> As for the point of how the popo should keep social distancing, this local from Saturday, when they were tasked to enforce social distancing and break up a crowd that had gathered around a stall selling face masks:



Maybe they’d do a better job if they took those blindfolds off!


----------



## tom73 (20 Apr 2020)

The white van cowboys are back again next door. Still clueless and putting lives are risk though pure selfish actions. 
A few door up another pair of gardeners at work. They clearly are qualified, run a company and pay tax. 
They have supplies of hand gel, wipes in the van , both are fully complying with social distancing and are both wearing fabric masks. 
They maybe containing to work but are doing all they can to keep people safe both legally and morally. 
Well done lads.


----------



## mjr (20 Apr 2020)

German public service film taking an entirely less terrifying line than UK ones (pic: we thank everyone staying at home). They start to lift lockdown today. https://apnews.com/7dd7d778e8a3fe1df478f9b5270c1a0c


----------



## Andy in Germany (20 Apr 2020)

About to go to the post office to send the letter to the Job Center and Employment Agency telling them I've got a job and they can now push off. 

Drank some water before leaving and it went in my windpipe, so now I'm waiting until the coughing dies down so I don't get accused of passing the virus around...


----------



## Mike_P (20 Apr 2020)

A side effect in York station being so quite is that a goose is using a planter as a nest


----------



## MarkF (20 Apr 2020)

Do companies of percieved quality like 3M outsource the manufacturing of their FFP3 masks? It's quite a while since I posted that after inspecting them and watching so many break as medics pulled them over their heads, that I sought out the boxes to check them. The 3M masks are the same (& by far the worse of the 3 manufacturers I've used) but some have the elasticated bands held on by tension alone, provided by regular & useless staples. Others have the elasticated bands that pass through the masks and then knotted, a proper fix and they don't fail. It's hard to imagine fake masks being any worse than some 3M products.

The distibution of it within the hosipal is, surprise, surprise, a dysfunctional and convoluted "system".


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Apr 2020)

3M manufacture in China (at least partially). There was a stushie a couple of weeks ago after a shipment of masks from a 3M factory in China to Germany(?) was diverted to the US on the instructions of the American administration.


----------



## Unkraut (20 Apr 2020)

Stephenite said:


> Could I get away with linking to another article in Norwegian?


As an aside, I wondered if I could work any of it out. Google translate came to the rescue (just!), but I could guess some words more from the German cognates - kjøpe = kaufen, to buy. English 'cheap', but the meaning has changed. spredningen must mean spread.


----------



## alicat (20 Apr 2020)

Helicopter been circling overhead for 15 mins. Alternating between the council estate and the park. Wonder if it is what used to pass for the community policeman when I was growing up in Leeds.


----------



## mjr (20 Apr 2020)

alicat said:


> Helicopter been circling overhead for 15 mins. Alternating between the council estate and the park. Wonder if it is what used to pass for the community policeman when I was growing up in Leeds.


Are the police now "in loco helicopter parentis"?


----------



## alicat (20 Apr 2020)

^^^^ groan! The 'Any Bad Jokes' thread is that way *> > > > >*


----------



## mjr (20 Apr 2020)

Someone's pointed out to me that readers from outside the UK (or even inside the UK if they're not watching the "Terror Vision" broadcast channels during this) might not be aware just how terrifyingly dystopian our current TV public service film is, with a voiceover by actor Mark Strong (Archy in RocknRolla, Frank D'Amico in Kick-Ass, Dr Nasch in Before I Go to Sleep and much more) over images of ambulances, hospital workers getting kitted up in PPE, street scenes from a zombie apocalypse, children trapped in houses sticking rainbows to windows, the weekly applause for the underpaid key workers, then that missed-opportunity Stay Home logo that you see on the press briefings. It's depressing. Here's some screenshots.

I failed to find the video online, unlike the earlier "Chris Whitty stares at you and blethers on" one. Can you find a copy?

(ETA who does the soberly threatening voiceover.)


----------



## nickyboy (20 Apr 2020)

Well, that's my first experience of NHS procurement systems and it's pretty shambolic

I have a number of contacts who manufacture PPE outside UK. They've seen what is going on in UK and have contacted me to see if they can help (it's business of course)

So I've been in direct contact with several local NHS trusts to see what procurement policy is. I can organise supply of tens of thousands of masks, hazmat suits and surgical gowns every day

Each trust told me something different. Trust 1 said they were trying to buy PPE themselves but "the man you need to speak to" was on holiday this week (!!). Trust 2 said it was all sourced and distributed at a national level and they would give me the contacts (they haven't yet). Trust 3 said it was sourced and distributed regionally and they would give me the contacts (they haven't yet)

Not impressed. I've got CE certified suppliers wanting to supply


----------



## Ming the Merciless (20 Apr 2020)

Grrrr, roads are emptier than they've ever been. It doesn't mean a license to speed.


----------



## Rusty Nails (20 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Grrrr, roads are emptier than they've ever been. It doesn't mean a license to speed.
> 
> View attachment 516568



Was it caused by speeding? Is there a 60mph speed limit at that point? A 30mph crash can be serious. Not enough info in that tweet to come to any conclusions.


----------



## matticus (20 Apr 2020)

https://twitter.com/but_cyclists
… should quickly show you how many high-speed crashes are being caused by drivers under lockdown. Many of them are pretty open-and-shut speeding cases


----------



## Ming the Merciless (20 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Was it caused by speeding? Is there a 60mph speed limit at that point? A 30mph crash can be serious. Not enough info in that tweet to come to any conclusions.



Yes a friend witnessed it, and sent me the tweet, it was speeding at very high speed.


----------



## tom73 (20 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Well, that's my first experience of NHS procurement systems and it's pretty shambolic
> 
> I have a number of contacts who manufacture PPE outside UK. They've seen what is going on in UK and have contacted me to see if they can help (it's business of course)
> 
> ...


Sadly not a surprise 
Have you tried local hospices and care homes they are really finding it hard to get stuff. 
What about the local CCG ?
Nationally I know Sue Ryder are really in trouble with PPE supply. 
I can put the word out on SM if like?


----------



## tom73 (20 Apr 2020)

Sadly we've now reached the grim number of 100 Health and social care workers who've died. 
Now will someone listen and do something ?


----------



## kingrollo (20 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Well, that's my first experience of NHS procurement systems and it's pretty shambolic
> 
> I have a number of contacts who manufacture PPE outside UK. They've seen what is going on in UK and have contacted me to see if they can help (it's business of course)
> 
> ...



Why would expect a singular response ? - The idea of NHS foundation trusts is that they run how they see fit - with some parameters of course - The idea was that the better hospitals thrive and the weaker ones get taken over by the better ones.

A complete dogs breakfast of an Idea - further example, we used to buy Microsoft licenses as the whole NHS - They cost us next to nothing - then in 2010 this agreement was torn up - and each hospital had to purchase separately from Microsoft - Guess what ? - We ended up paying more per license !!!!!


----------



## kingrollo (20 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sadly we've now reached the grim number of 100 Health and social care workers who've died.
> Now will someone listen and do something ?



What do you think ?

Unfortunately you can not run down an NHS for 10 years - then just boost it up again - no matter how much money you throw at it. Basic project management - you throw in 6 new developers to a software project for example - things actually slow down in the short term as these people need to be brought up to speed etc...


----------



## mjr (20 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> A complete dogs breakfast of an Idea - further example, we used to buy Microsoft licenses as the whole NHS - They cost us next to nothing - then in 2010 this agreement was torn up - and each hospital had to purchase separately from Microsoft - Guess what ? - We ended up paying more per license !!!!!


We shouldn't be running public services on single-supplier monopoly licensed software from Microsoft (or anyone else) anyway, but that's a whole other discussion off-topic here. The relevant thing is that there hasn't appeared to be been rational leadership for NHS purchasing for quite some time, not on software and now it seems not on PPE or ventilators either.


----------



## mjr (20 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sadly we've now reached the grim number of 100 Health and social care workers who've died.
> Now will someone listen and do something ?


Yes, but ministers standing outside their houses once a week and clapwashing their sins away is probably not what you were hoping for.


----------



## nickyboy (20 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Why would expect a singular response ? - The idea of NHS foundation trusts is that they run how they see fit - with some parameters of course - The idea was that the better hospitals thrive and the weaker ones get taken over by the better ones.
> 
> A complete dogs breakfast of an Idea - further example, we used to buy Microsoft licenses as the whole NHS - They cost us next to nothing - then in 2010 this agreement was torn up - and each hospital had to purchase separately from Microsoft - Guess what ? - We ended up paying more per license !!!!!


No problem managing a situation if all trusts are independent purchasing entities. But that's just the point. On PPE it seems that it's all over the place...trusts buying, regional entities buying, national buying. 

So I've got suppliers wanting to supply but finding the correct route is, let's say, challenging


----------



## vickster (20 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> No problem managing a situation if all trusts are independent purchasing entities. But that's just the point. On PPE it seems that it's all over the place...trusts buying, regional entities buying, national buying.
> 
> So I've got suppliers wanting to supply but finding the correct route is, let's say, challenging


Contact NHS providers direct?
https://nhsproviders.org/topics/covid-19/coronavirus-member-support


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## kingrollo (20 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> We shouldn't be running public services on single-supplier monopoly licensed software from Microsoft (or anyone else) anyway, but that's a whole other discussion off-topic here. The relevant thing is that there hasn't appeared to be been rational leadership for NHS purchasing for quite some time, not on software and now it seems not on PPE or ventilators either.



No - but thats probably not that easy to set up in a few days - not that I am defending the lack of PPE - But existing suppliers/standards will have been built up over many months/years - you can not just place an order for an extra 10m - and expect them to arrive at the hospitals......


----------



## kingrollo (20 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> No problem managing a situation if all trusts are independent purchasing entities. But that's just the point. On PPE it seems that it's all over the place...trusts buying, regional entities buying, national buying.
> 
> So I've got suppliers wanting to supply but finding the correct route is, let's say, challenging



Yep that doesn't surprise me. Thing is who is going to want to sign off on PPE from an unknown supplier (no disrespect to your company intended)


----------



## mjr (20 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yep that doesn't surprise me. Thing is who is going to want to sign off on PPE from an unknown supplier (no disrespect to your company intended)


Surely it should all be tested the same whether the supplier is known or unknown? Even known suppliers are under stress now, we've read above about some famous-brand stuff being carp and this really is too important to be trusting "proof by reputation" with the lives of care workers.


----------



## tom73 (20 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> No - but thats probably not that easy to set up in a few days - not that I am defending the lack of PPE - But existing suppliers/standards will have been built up over many months/years - you can not just place an order for an extra 10m - and expect them to arrive at the hospitals......



That's one of the biggest problems supplies can get more all they need is the the government to start talking to them. 
No-one look's to be taking charge of this and acting as a one point of contact. 
If they can't sort it then they need to man up and ask for help. But they won't.


----------



## tom73 (20 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> No problem managing a situation if all trusts are independent purchasing entities. But that's just the point. On PPE it seems that it's all over the place...trusts buying, regional entities buying, national buying.
> 
> So I've got suppliers wanting to supply but finding the correct route is, let's say, challenging



@Brompton Bruce Maybe the prof can bang a few heads ?


----------



## Rocky (20 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Brompton Bruce Maybe the prof can bang a few heads ?


She’d like to but has very little influence at the local trust let alone hospitals outside the region. My suggestion would be to go to the national press. It’s a story they’d be very interested in at the mo.


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## nickyboy (20 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yep that doesn't surprise me. Thing is who is going to want to sign off on PPE from an unknown supplier (no disrespect to your company intended)


It's CE certified by a European external testing agency to the relevant surgical mask standard which is how I would expect things to work. I've even supplied the NHS Trusts with the certificate. Just sitting around waiting, twiddling my thumbs when the factory could be making 50k surgical masks per day (and 10k per day of those all in one white hazmat type suits too)


----------



## Archie_tect (20 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> No - but thats probably not that easy to set up in a few days - not that I am defending the lack of PPE - But existing suppliers/standards will have been built up over many months/years - you can not just place an order for an extra 10m - and expect them to arrive at the hospitals......



Longbenton School in North Tyneside made 1000 masks after being given £1000 grant by Karbon Homes [local Housing Association]... that's really good value and were so well received by the North Tyneside Health Trust they're doing another 1000 this week.


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## Rusty Nails (20 Apr 2020)

The Welsh Assembly First Minister has accepted the performance on testing has 'not been good' (less than 20% of target numbers achieved) and has effectively scrapped targets for testing, while still aiming to improve the numbers.

Time will tell, but it does not build public confidence in his, or his Health Minister's pronouncements or performance.


----------



## rualexander (20 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Well, that's my first experience of NHS procurement systems and it's pretty shambolic
> 
> I have a number of contacts who manufacture PPE outside UK. They've seen what is going on in UK and have contacted me to see if they can help (it's business of course)
> 
> ...



Try NHS Scotland, the procurement is centralised as far as I know.
https://www.nhsscotlandprocurement.scot.nhs.uk/


----------



## kingrollo (20 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> It's CE certified by a European external testing agency to the relevant surgical mask standard which is how I would expect things to work. I've even supplied the NHS Trusts with the certificate. Just sitting around waiting, twiddling my thumbs when the factory could be making 50k surgical masks per day (and 10k per day of those all in one white hazmat type suits too)


I'm not sure that is the standard TBH.


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## tom73 (20 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> She’d like to but has very little influence at the local trust let alone hospitals outside the region. My suggestion would be to go to the national press. It’s a story they’d be very interested in at the mo.


Yes I know was just thinking of any other options that maybe worth a try.


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## kingrollo (20 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> It's CE certified by a European external testing agency to the relevant surgical mask standard which is how I would expect things to work. I've even supplied the NHS Trusts with the certificate. Just sitting around waiting, twiddling my thumbs when the factory could be making 50k surgical masks per day (and 10k per day of those all in one white hazmat type suits too)


here you go mate from the BBC website

Separately, Labour MP Rachel Reeves has asked manufacturers to get in touch if they have not heard back from the government about offers to supply protective equipment for the NHS.


----------



## nickyboy (20 Apr 2020)

To reemphasize my comment that this fight is a long one and we shouldn't be in a rush to decide which countries are the winners and losers take a look at Singapore

Through Feb and March it was held up as a shining beacon of how to handle a pandemic. Then the government relaxed restrictions in late March as it felt it had things under control

Today there were 1,426 new cases, by far the greatest daily count and it's increasing rapidly. They got it badly wrong







Maybe Singapore will prove to be the country that handled it best when the dust finally settles. But maybe not. Same is true of all countries


----------



## kingrollo (20 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> To reemphasize my comment that this fight is a long one and we shouldn't be in a rush to decide which countries are the winners and losers take a look at Singapore
> 
> Through Feb and March it was held up as a shining beacon of how to handle a pandemic. Then the government relaxed restrictions in late March as it felt it had things under control
> 
> ...


Personally I think its those countries who followed WHO advice and those who didn't - If you follow the advice is could still well go wrong (as above) - But to ignore the advice then look on in utter amazement at 16,000 deaths is unforgivable IMO.


----------



## marinyork (20 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Today there were 1,426 new cases, by far the greatest daily count and it's increasing rapidly. They got it badly wrong



Interesting because it appears that Singapore's total lab capacity is 3000 per day. In the early days of contact tracing the number of positives was obviously a tiny, tiny fraction of available capacity. Now sadly, that looks bad because around half of capacity testing positive per day means there will be many others missed. Even in places where it ran wildly out of control there was a lower proportion of tests done having people test positive (often a quarter to a third).


----------



## tom73 (20 Apr 2020)

The magical PPE order from Turkey has yet again not even got of the ground.
Government finally take control and have now sent the RAF to get it. 
Talk about better late then never.


----------



## Mike_P (20 Apr 2020)

Another Transdev 1 Northern, er.. why didn't we think of that


----------



## MrGrumpy (20 Apr 2020)

My Mrs is a podiatrist (private ) currently closed her business down till June hoping to be able to reopen. However........ having real problems sourcing proper PPE without being charged through the nose. Hope things settle down next month or so and she can get what she needs. No way would she work without it now!


----------



## marinyork (20 Apr 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> My Mrs is a podiatrist (private ) currently closed her business down till June hoping to be able to reopen. However........ having real problems sourcing proper PPE without being charged through the nose. Hope things settle down next month or so and she can get what she needs. No way would she work without it now!



In general, despite what other people said about salons still being open, many salons closed early because they couldn't get any PPE. That was in the days when it was much more plentiful than today, unfortunately. Pharmacies are having a lot of problems with PPE currently.


----------



## PK99 (20 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> One reason the UKgov only counts hospital deaths, they're trying to hide the true numbers, which may be 5 times the official figure.
> 
> As of 19.04.2020 the official UK death toll is 15464. If thee claims in the article above are correct, that would put the actual figure at over 70 000. The Italian death toll is 23227 and Spain is 20043. Germany, which does include care homes, is currently reporting 4924 deaths.
> 
> ...



The number of hospital deaths is a simple and time consistent proxy measure of the virus wild in the general population. In particular, it gives a measure of R0 in the general population.


----------



## randynewmanscat (20 Apr 2020)

Some light relief in an unremittingly grim month. Another country showing how social distancing is done when serious and essential matters need to be attended to. If the rest of the world needed a test platform for forecasts and modelling they have it.

View: https://youtu.be/jNIbMHWUyfs


----------



## Andy in Germany (20 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> The number of hospital deaths is a simple and time consistent proxy measure of the virus wild in the general population. In particular, it gives a measure of R0 in the general population.



I'd thoroughly misunderstood the article anyway, as pointed out upthread.

Nonetheless, only registering hospital deaths allows for some serious fudging of the figures, and if there's one thing this government is really good at, it's fudging figures.


----------



## marinyork (20 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Nonetheless, only registering hospital deaths allows for some serious fudging of the figures, and if there's on thing this government is really good at, it's fudging figures.



There's a bit of evidence that the deaths in some european countries deaths in nursing homes is between a third and half the hospital deaths. Some even reckon at a parity with.

Whatever the UK implements now with care homes is too late for wave-1. Any positives are sheer damn luck or hard work by individuals workers and care homes. Of course there is the grim possibility that the virus will just permanently belt around care homes, even if outside homes we have smaller 2nd, 3rd, 4th waves spaced out.


----------



## MrGrumpy (20 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> In general, despite what other people said about salons still being open, many salons closed early because they couldn't get any PPE. That was in the days when it was much more plentiful than today, unfortunately. Pharmacies are having a lot of problems with PPE currently.



So did my Mrs it was just too risky to continue at the time !


----------



## kingrollo (20 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> The number of hospital deaths is a simple and time consistent proxy measure of the virus wild in the general population. In particular, it gives a measure of R0 in the general population.


not questioning you - But I have often wondered how they calculate R0 without contact testing ?


----------



## MarkF (20 Apr 2020)

Monday 20th April

Tested positive to date - 417
Tested negative to date - 1145
Confirmed cases in hospital - 71
Confirmed cases discharged - 181
Confirmed cases in ICU - 9
Total deaths - 92

I think that around April 8th ICU was 75% full and you could feel the pressure, now it's less than 50% and it looks like the additionally created ICU areas will not be needed. I have not heard of an "unusual" death so far, a young person or a healthy adult etc. They never give a stat for staff who are or who have been confirmed cases?


----------



## lane (20 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> The number of hospital deaths is a simple and time consistent proxy measure of the virus wild in the general population. In particular, it gives a measure of R0 in the general population.



Why hospital deaths only and how is it used to calculate R0?


----------



## stowie (20 Apr 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Some light relief in an unremittingly grim month. Another country showing how social distancing is done when serious and essential matters need to be attended to. If the rest of the world needed a test platform for forecasts and modelling they have it.
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/jNIbMHWUyfs




Brazil government operates on a similar system to the US. The states have a lot of power to manage their affairs, including health emergencies.

Most governors in Brazil have ignored Bolsonaro, in the same way most US states have ignored Trump.

My family are spread around Brazil, but mostly in Goias state (near Brasilia in the centre of Brasil) and Santa Catarina (in the South). All have been in lockdown since March time. In Goias state, the small town where my mother in law lives self-isolated themselves entirely by having the local police shut down the main roads into the town - it generally gets a lot of weekend tourists from the state capital and they banned all travel.

Balneario Camboriú in Santa Catarina is normally heaving at this time of the year with tourists from all over South America. It is currently deserted. You can see videos of this on youtube - I have one below



My family who live there were saying that anyone caught on the beach were escorted back home. Caught twice and they were taken to police station where they were fined (with the police taking hours for the paperwork to really make life miserable..)

All foreigners (estrangeiros) into Brazil are banned currently unless they have residency visas or some other emergency cases, so even on a federal level they are taking it seriously.

Bolsonaro's popularity rose in January mainly due to better economy, but it has absolutely slumped in recent weeks. He is desperately trying to disassociate himself from the measures in an attempt to gain more popularity.

Brazil has escaped so far the worst of the Coronavirus, but I fear this won't continue. And Brazil healthcare system is fine if you are rich and terrible if you are poor. Plus they have the largest city in the Southern Hemisphere and some of the most dense urban areas in the world such as the Rio favelas. It won't be pretty if they are as badly affected by COVID as Europe.


----------



## PK99 (20 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Monday 20th April
> 
> Tested positive to date - 417
> Tested negative to date - 1145
> ...



Sorry, am I being dumb. To what do those numbers refer?


----------



## lane (20 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> not questioning you - But I have often wondered how they calculate R0 without contact testing ?



From what I have seen estimates are based on areas which have conducted testing and results vary quite widely.


----------



## midlife (20 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Sorry, am I being dumb. To what do those numbers refer?



Look like hospital Covid stats,


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> From what I have seen estimates are based on areas which have conducted testing and results vary quite widely.



Ro dictates the doubling time for transmission, but also for deaths. So it can be estimated directly from death numbers, which are more reliable than case numbers, as they're unaffected by testing capacity or policy.


----------



## MarkF (20 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> Sorry, am I being dumb. To what do those numbers refer?



Stats for Bradford Royal Infirmary. I've posted them regularly so didn't bother explaining, sorry.


----------



## PK99 (20 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Ro dictates the doubling time for transmission, but also for deaths. So it can be estimated directly from death numbers, which are more reliable than case numbers, as they're unaffected by testing capacity or policy.



And the R0 you want to measure is that of the wild virus in the general population which in turn gives a measure of the effectiveness of the Lockdown/control measures.


----------



## PK99 (20 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Stats for Bradford Royal Infirmary. I've posted them regularly so didn't bother explaining, sorry.



Thanks - physically can't follow and remember all individual posts.

Very interesting data.


----------



## lane (20 Apr 2020)

Does that mean that if deaths are reducing the R0 is below 1, and that is why falling deaths is one of the criteria for easing up on the lockdown?


----------



## kingrollo (20 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Does that mean that if deaths are reducing the R0 is below 1, and that is why falling deaths is one of the criteria for easing up on the lockdown?


Don't fully understand it - but was reading it's .7 in the UK at the moment - but if it goes above 1 we are back to where we were 3 weeks ago.


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## PK99 (20 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Does that mean that if deaths are reducing the R0 is below 1, and that is why falling deaths is one of the criteria for easing up on the lockdown?



Wet towels time:

https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number


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## PK99 (20 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Does that mean that if deaths are reducing the R0 is below 1, and that is why falling deaths is one of the criteria for easing up on the lockdown?




Yes BUT VERY BIG BUT:


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## Wobblers (20 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm not a qualified epidemiologist so I find it impossible to assess, critically, the UK government's response. All I can do is wait until all ten laps have been run and then see where we came



That's not quite true: we can infer from the experiences of other countries. 

In every country where there has been a lack of testing potential cases followed up by rigorous contact tracing for those exposed to the virus, there has been a substantial outbreak.

China (outside of Hubei province), Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea all implemented programs of testing, contact tracing and quarantine of those infected. They have managed to contain the disease to a very small fraction of the population.

The lesson is quite, quite clear. The only way to prevent mass transmission and illness is by rigorous testing of those showing symptoms and exhaustive contact tracing of people exposed to carriers. We have no other means of preventing a mass outbreak. I see no evidence of the UK government understanding this. The UK's testing strategy is still in disarray. We are still, even now, failing to test those who are symptomatic - something that has been shown to be essential. (Because testing only those who present at hospitals fails to track the virus in the community.) We have no means of performing contact tracing. (And no, a half arsed smart phone app doesn't count because many people don't have one, batteries go flat, they get forgotten, and most importantly of all, by relying on self-reporting most cases will be missed because most cases are very mild.)

In short, the government's strategy - or lack of, to be more accurate - makes a second wave after lockdown restrictions are lifted almost inevitable. It will happen. The only question is when - will the second wave happen four weeks or six weeks after the lockdown ends?


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## Joey Shabadoo (20 Apr 2020)

Hold on, aren't we re-starting contact tracing?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/uk-to-start-coronavirus-contact-tracing-again


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## Wobblers (21 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Hold on, aren't we re-starting contact tracing?
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/uk-to-start-coronavirus-contact-tracing-again



No.

Matt Hancock saying that we should restart contact tracing is not a statement that we are restarting contact tracing.

Do you understand the scale of the operation China undertook in order to confine the epidemic in Hubei province? From the WHO report, there were 1800 teams performing contact tracing. That is a major logistical challenge, and the UK has a larger outbreak. There is an absence of the preparation required for this, and it will need to be fully in place by the time that restrictions are lifted in order to prevent a second wave. Further, we lack the testing capacity to test those showing symptoms far less check contacts for the presence of the virus. Again, this is something that needs to be in place before the end of lockdown.

Given Hancock's dismal record in failing to expand testing capacity in a timely manner, and his equally dismal record in meeting his promises over PPE supplies, it is not reasonable to expect him to achieve his promises over contact tracing. Especially when you consider the magnitude of the task required. And the very short timescales.


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## kingrollo (21 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Hold on, aren't we re-starting contact tracing?
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/uk-to-start-coronavirus-contact-tracing-again


That's quoting the health secretary .........not a reliable source.


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## PK99 (21 Apr 2020)

McWobble said:


> No.
> 
> Matt Hancock saying that we should restart contact tracing is not a statement that we are restarting contact tracing.
> 
> *Do you understand the scale of the operation China undertook in order to confine the epidemic in Hubei province?* From the WHO report, there were 1800 teams performing contact tracing. That is a major logistical challenge, and the UK has a larger outbreak. There is an absence of the preparation required for this, and it will need to be fully in place by the time that restrictions are lifted in order to prevent a second wave. Further, we lack the testing capacity to test those showing symptoms far less check contacts for the presence of the virus. Again, this is something that needs to be in place before the end of lockdown.



And remember China was already a surveillance society with facial recognition and individual tracking systems and social sanction procedures in place prior to the outbreak.


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## lane (21 Apr 2020)

So what will happen here then do you think? Given that we basically can't do test and trace controls if we lift the lock down.


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## marinyork (21 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Does that mean that if deaths are reducing the R0 is below 1, and that is why falling deaths is one of the criteria for easing up on the lockdown?



Vallance was asked this last week and said, as is true, although the numbers are encouraging, there are still an awfully large number of people that have the virus at present, even if the transmission rate is below 1 (which they believe it is). So the number of people infected at any one time needs to come down a lot.

If you take Lombardia that's had 36 out of the last 37 days with deaths at crudely around 200 (rounding up in some cases). Someone might wonder well what's special about 200? It may have some relevance as that's showing how high 'high' death rates can continue. Lombardia has a population of 10.1 million. The UK is 66 million. Scaled up Lombardia still has higher hospital death rates than the UK did at it's worst (with large bounds of uncertainy and all sorts of recording issues in both countries). Even now, even though loads of things were said about Italy being 2-4 weeks ahead of the UK etc. Of course the region had a few days with deaths of over 500, but most of the 'high' days were around 300-400. The daily deaths are still very, very high and one explanation may be that around 15% of the population in Lombardy has had it*, meaning that even with R below 1, an enormously large enough people were still getting it 2-4 weeks ago to then turn up in hospital/die 2-4 weeks later. In Italy as a whole numbers in ICU started falling around 2.5 weeks ago, but it's still crudely at about two-thirds of the level that it was at it's highest (for the whole of Italy, so not much relevance for particular regions).

*All we know for certain is 0.66% of the population in Lombardia have had the virus. Locally it's quite likely that 15% has had it in a number of very bad clusters. Everywhere in the region, an average, a lot less likely that it's 15%, but it could be. It's why the WHO has been saying the last couple of days that there's evidence in many locations only 2-3% of the population has had it.


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## vickster (21 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> So what will happen here then do you think? Given that we basically can't do test and trace controls if we lift the lock down.


They’re using Smartphone Apps in Asia I think, don’t know how keen the GB public will be to have such on their phones using data, even if they have a smart phone


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## kingrollo (21 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> So what will happen here then do you think? Given that we basically can't do test and trace controls if we lift the lock down.


We will use the app 
And come up with some figures showing that most of those who died would have died anyway....


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## marinyork (21 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We will use the app
> And come up with some figures showing that most of those who died would have died anyway....



Unfortunately in Singapore only 17% are estimated to have used the app, whereas much higher %s are needed.


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## marinyork (21 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> So what will happen here then do you think? Given that we basically can't do test and trace controls if we lift the lock down.



Eventually some other country, probably Germany, will do some kind of robust study on antibody immunity and harder figures on % of the population had it in wave-1. This informs policy and what can actually be done beyond about a month's time in the vaguest of terms. If the 15-50%ers are right then we'll have a horrid second wave that's even bigger than now in the winter. If the 2-3%ers are right they'll be horrid wave after horrid wave of this thing until a vaccine.

Track and trace could be deployed to very dense multi-generational housing such as London or the West midlands or care homes.

Eventually the UK and other governments may settle up and plump for an antibody test kit. What else can they do apart from do more robust antibody tests in UK labs? We already know there are validated test kits that are 50% accurate with few false positives (as opposed to truly useless tests that had 30% detection and high false positives and high false negatives). It's just the US and probably UK threw these down in a tantrum and binned them. Unfortunately there may come a time eventually when they have to swallow their pride and use them. It's not ideal, but there's pretty much literally nothing else.


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## roubaixtuesday (21 Apr 2020)

.


lane said:


> So what will happen here then do you think? Given that we basically can't do test and trace controls if we lift the lock down.



Nobody knows. There is no plan at the moment, it seems. Indeed, the govt seems unwilling to even acknowledge that there should be a plan, lest its own disagreements, jockeying for position and lack of strategy is exposed.

Our government is made up of ideologues and incompetents appointed purely for their willingness to pledge obeisance to Johnson and hard Brexit. All the remaining capable people having were purged. Now, faced with a fast moving problem totally impervious to rhetoric, they are entirely unable to respond and are to be found blinking in the headlights. They spend their time between making unkeepable promises and trying to rewrite the history of their U-turns along the way to our present state, having delivered amongst the very worst epidemics in the world despite having more time to respond than many. 

New Zealand, by contrast, has been highly effective and has a prepared level of alerts which can be expected to be stepped through.

https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/covid-19-alert-system/


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## roubaixtuesday (21 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We will use the app
> And come up with some figures showing that most of those who died would have died anyway....



Beware of simple answers to complex problems.

See for example 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52353720



> No-one thinks apps are the whole solution.
> 
> But their defenders say they are a useful weapon in an "armoury of epidemic control measures" and if enough people adopt them, a second wave of cases could be suppressed, saving many lives as a consequence.


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## icowden (21 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Why hospital deaths only and how is it used to calculate R0?


Essentially the data from hospital deaths is available immediately. It is recorded as soon as the patient has died and is available to the hospitals reporting function within 24 hours. That data can then be reported to NHS England pretty much straight away.

Data from Care Homes etc can take quite a few days after a person has died. When someone dies in hospital death is certified immediately. When someone dies in a care home a GP is called. They will attend eventually and report the death and apparent cause of death. They may record cause of death inaccurately in that they may go for something generic such as heart failure or pnuemonia rather than being able to test for Covid 19. There is then a delay before that death is entered on the GP system and pushed to the NHS Spine. Then the data has to be extracted and added to the stats by NHS England.


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## tom73 (21 Apr 2020)

Use of an App opens a whole new can of worms and lays bare yet again a whole bunch of social and economic inequalities. 
Without even getting started on the whole issues of privacy and data ownership. 
The NHS don't have a great record with tech and NHSx approach to building it's own App and owning and controlling the data. 
Don't exactly fill you with confidence and the idea of 80% download and use is total pie in sky. 
As it stands it won't even get past Apple/Google joint trancing App protocol or data protection measures. 

The Ada Lovelace institute did rapid review yesterday on contract tracing apps. With a number of key findings 
https://www.adalovelaceinstitute.org/our-work/covid-19/covid-19-exit-through-the-app-store/


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## lane (21 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We will use the app
> And come up with some figures showing that most of those who died would have died anyway....



No. Everyone who died would have died anyway. Eventually.


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## lane (21 Apr 2020)

So to sum up my understand so far:

1. We get the RO down as near 0 as we can due to the current lockdown
2. We get the number of infections down to a low enough level due to the current lockdown
3. We start lifting the lockdown
4. We now need to continue to keep the RO below 1 or we will be back where we started. We have no reliable strategy for doing this and it is risky
5. If R0 goes back above 1 we will need another lock down quite quickly

It is likely we will cycle through points 1 to 5 periodically


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## kingrollo (21 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Unfortunately in Singapore only 17% are estimated to have used the app, whereas much higher %s are needed.


I didn't say the app would be useful !


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## mjr (21 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> They’re using Smartphone Apps in Asia I think, don’t know how keen the GB public will be to have such on their phones using data, even if they have a smart phone


If it becomes mandatory and the app wasn't audited by people I trust (security researchers, basically), I'd be resuscitating an old phone that I was about to recycle when we got locked down and keeping the government spyware well away from my real phone and its encryption keys. I would probably carry it enough for the spyware to work (in my saddlebag), but I bet enough people would put it on a spare phone they didn't carry except when required that it would unwittingly undermine the system.


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## kingrollo (21 Apr 2020)

icowden said:


> Essentially the data from hospital deaths is available immediately. It is recorded as soon as the patient has died and is available to the hospitals reporting function within 24 hours. That data can then be reported to NHS England pretty much straight away.
> 
> Data from Care Homes etc can take quite a few days after a person has died. When someone dies in hospital death is certified immediately. When someone dies in a care home a GP is called. They will attend eventually and report the death and apparent cause of death. They may record cause of death inaccurately in that they may go for something generic such as heart failure or pnuemonia rather than being able to test for Covid 19. There is then a delay before that death is entered on the GP system and pushed to the NHS Spine. Then the data has to be extracted and added to the stats by NHS England.


I still don't get how they calculate R0 from hospital deaths - without contact tracing....


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## kingrollo (21 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> If it becomes mandatory and the app wasn't audited by people I trust (security researchers, basically), I'd be resuscitating an old phone that I was about to recycle when we got locked down and keeping the government spyware well away from my real phone and its encryption keys. I would probably carry it enough for the spyware to work (in my saddlebag), but I bet enough people would put it on a spare phone they didn't carry except when required that it would unwittingly undermine the system.


If they are using BT then some phones have a larger BT range than others - will therefore get more alerts than others
.*BT = Bluetooth


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## roubaixtuesday (21 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I still don't get how they calculate R0 from hospital deaths - without contact tracing....



The rate of increase of deaths is directly related mathematically to Ro.


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## mjr (21 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> There's a bit of evidence that the deaths in some european countries deaths in nursing homes is between a third and half the hospital deaths. Some even reckon at a parity with.


More than a bit of evidence! And I'm sorry but it probably could be far worse than a third...

One of the reasons why Belgium's death rate looks so much worse than its neighbours on comparison sites is that the response there is led by seconded experts like Drs Emmanuel André and Marc Van Ranst - not politicians directly like here - and they have been including care home cases and deaths in the toll ASAP, much faster than the UK's week-plus lag. A few days ago, it was reported that over 60% of cases are linked to care homes, although some of those are of course transferred to hospitals as they deterioriate - and probably more than ever now the army are assisting in 10 care homes and they've started to roll out "massive" testing in them.

In case we doubted what politicians would do differently and aren't willing to look at what That Hancock is doing here, Health Minister Maggie de Block suggested that Belgium should change its counting method to be basically in line with others. The independent expert response was impressively scathing: "you don't lower the temperature by changing the thermometer" was the stinging rebuke by Geoffrey Pleyers of UCLouvain. So I don't think they'll change.

Belgian media has even started talking up that other countries will have to adopt "Belgian counting" if they want to have any hope of controlling this pandemic. Maybe the UK will finally change and speed up its fossilised essentially-mid-1800s system where we have 5 days to register a death outside hospital and something like 80 to complete all the reports, and pretty much any funeral director will probably have tales of doctors "identifying" the wrong corpse days later and errors like that.


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## mjr (21 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If they are using BT then some phones have a larger BT range than others - will therefore get more alerts than others
> .*BT = Bluetooth


Does Bluetooth being discoverable still drastically shorten the battery life on phones?

Similarly, if an app uses wifi as part of its location-identifying, range variation will bring challenges: I've had phones that were fine as far as the main road, whereas others barely stay connected throughout the house.


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## tom73 (21 Apr 2020)

One area of the daily briefing positive test figure chart that no one really want's to talk about or ask a question on. 
The blue bars maybe failing but the orange bit (health care workers and families) is going up. Which is starting to be a concerning pattern.


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## kingrollo (21 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Does Bluetooth being discoverable still drastically shorten the battery life on phones?
> 
> Similarly, if an app uses wifi as part of its location-identifying, range variation will bring challenges: I've had phones that were fine as far as the main road, whereas others barely stay connected throughout the house.


The app is just a feelgood factor.

"Boss I'm not coming in today someone who walked passed me yesterday has gone down with a cold "


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## Ming the Merciless (21 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Does Bluetooth being discoverable still drastically shorten the battery life on phones?
> 
> Similarly, if an app uses wifi as part of its location-identifying, range variation will bring challenges: I've had phones that were fine as far as the main road, whereas others barely stay connected throughout the house.



Bluetooth has minimal impact on battery life. You’ll barely notice. The app won’t be using location. It will just check for other devices (running the app) within range. Any that are in range for more than 15 mins will be tagged in case the owner later comes up as infected.


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## PK99 (21 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> New Zealand, by contrast, has been highly effective and has a prepared level of alerts which can be expected to be stepped through.
> 
> https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/covid-19-alert-system/



New Zealand and New Zealanders are well versed in the concept of Bio-Security - protection of The NZ habitat and Farming industry by stringent border checks backed by swingeing fines for even minor accidental breaches at borders is high on their collective agenda. It is not surprising they were able to get their Covid-19 act together very quickly and effectively.

Early on there were reports of a Backpacker (IIIRC a 20ish Asain lady) arriving and being visited at her hostel the day after her arrival, by the immigration/health authority to check on her 2-week isolation plans, she had non and did not plan to. She was put on the next plane out of New Zealand


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## PK99 (21 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I still don't get how they calculate R0 from hospital deaths - without contact tracing....




By plugging the number series they have into Pandemic Mathematical models.

Here is a basic Primer:

https://theconversation.com/how-to-model-a-pandemic-134187


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## marinyork (21 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> More than a bit of evidence! And I'm sorry but it probably could be far worse than a third...
> 
> One of the reasons why Belgium's death rate looks so much worse than its neighbours on comparison sites is that the response there is led by seconded experts like Drs Emmanuel André and Marc Van Ranst - not politicians directly like here - and they have been including care home cases and deaths in the toll ASAP, much faster than the UK's week-plus lag. A few days ago, it was reported that over 60% of cases are linked to care homes, although some of those are of course transferred to hospitals as they deterioriate - and probably more than ever now the army are assisting in 10 care homes and they've started to roll out "massive" testing in them.
> 
> ...



I'm aware it could be a lot higher than a third. The proportion a number of countries seem to be at is half. It's worth noting that the Daily Mail went with a figure of about third (and other evidence to support that) and was called sensationalist front paging and the counter reaction to this and discussion around that figure that hit back was, oh not it's not, that's a lower estimate. 

The UK as I've said before I'm not so fussed if hospital deaths are initially counted differently, more that they are counted at all accurately with a slight lag. They don't appear to be. There was all the discussion in the UK about death certificates underrecording as doctors wanted to be cautious having not seen the patients and so on. That's the system. It's also the care home system.


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## marinyork (21 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I didn't say the app would be useful !



I'm well aware that you are very sceptical on apps. The digestion of why the Singapore one has failed is useful for other countries. There's room for a lot of improvement, as with most things coronavirus.


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## mjr (21 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> As it stands it won't even get past Apple/Google joint trancing App protocol or data protection measures.
> 
> The Ada Lovelace institute did rapid review yesterday on contract tracing apps. With a number of key findings
> https://www.adalovelaceinstitute.org/our-work/covid-19/covid-19-exit-through-the-app-store/


I'm still reading it in my breaks, but that review looks like a great discussion of the types of apps, the benefits and the potential costs.

And I know it's a typo/autocorrect but I'm loving the idea of a "Apple/Google joint trancing App" - those wacky Californians using their medicinal marijuana to escape the stress of the pandemic, eh?


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## Rusty Nails (21 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> If it becomes mandatory and the app wasn't audited by people I trust (security researchers, basically), I'd be resuscitating an old phone that I was about to recycle when we got locked down and keeping the government spyware well away from my real phone and its encryption keys. I would probably carry it enough for the spyware to work (in my saddlebag), but I bet enough people would put it on a spare phone they didn't carry except when required that it would unwittingly undermine the system.



For once I'm ahead of the field, not having a smartphone.


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## mjr (21 Apr 2020)

Some Belgian rtbf news items from today and yesterday: 15-minute visits now allowed to care homes but it looks more like a prison visit with plexiglas and wood walls inside a tent outside the front door, a chaotic end to the school year with schools wondering how many students they can cope with and preserve social distancing if lockdown is relaxed, public transport warning that they won't be able to carry the previous number of students and almost no workers (conspicuous absence of any suggestions of cycling instead but the network in Wallonia is much sparser than in Flanders) plus they've problems like ticket validators (in red) are only at the unusable front doors, conversions of snow cannons into disinfectant cannons, bruised toes/feet may be a very early symptom of the virus, and fisheries are in crisis because fishing is banned and restaurants aren't buying so their holding lakes are now over-full with fishes are growing to sizes they are not allowed to release to watercourses and they've nowhere to put this spring's maturing baby fish.


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## mjr (21 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> For once I'm ahead of the field, not having a smartphone.


We don't know if you're ahead or behind because we can't track you


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## kingrollo (21 Apr 2020)

Surprising numbers today (778) - would seem tightening the lockdown is perhaps closer than easing up.


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## lane (21 Apr 2020)

Monday's figures presumably. Catching up from recording at the weekend which accounts for very low number yesterday? Averaging out still lower than last week's numbers.


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## deptfordmarmoset (21 Apr 2020)

Can anyone explain how air pollution can be singled out as an aggravating factor in covid deaths when population density will also be high - and thus a higher viral load - in ''dirty'' areas?

(the quote below is from the Guardian Live)

12:44

Higher *air pollution* could be linked to increased deaths and cases of coronavirus in England, a preliminary study suggests.
An analysis by the *Medical Research Council Toxicology Unit at Cambridge University* compared regional data on total Covid-19 cases and deaths, against levels of three major air pollutants.
The study used data from seven regions in England, where a minimum of 2,000 infections and 200 deaths are reported from February to April 8, 2020, and air pollution records from more than 120 sites in 2018 and 2019.
Levels of pollutants nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen oxide, much of which comes from traffic fumes, were highest in London, the Midlands and the North West and lowest in southern regions of England.
Fatalities of people with the coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2, followed the same trend, the study found, suggesting *the higher the pollution levels, the greater number of Covid-19 cases and deaths*.
Long-term exposure to air pollutants from car exhaust fumes or burning fossil fuels can put people at risk of these health conditions, and can also increase the risk of infection by viruses that affect people’s airways.
Marco Travaglio, a PhD student at the MRC Toxicology Unit, said:


> Our results provide the first evidence that SARS-CoV-2 case fatality is associated with increased nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide levels in England.
> London, the Midlands and the North West show the largest concentration of these air pollutants, with southern regions displaying the lowest levels in the country, and the number of Covid-19 deaths follows a similar trend.



Dr Miguel Martins, senior author on the study, added:


Our study adds to growing evidence from Northern Italy and the USA that high levels of air pollution are linked to deadlier cases of Covid-19.
This is something we saw during the previous Sars outbreak back in 2003, where long-term exposure to air pollutants had a detrimental effect on the prognosis of Sars patients in China.
This highlights the importance of reducing air pollution for the protection of human health, both in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.


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## PK99 (21 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Surprising numbers today (778) - would seem tightening the lockdown is perhaps closer than easing up.



day to day numbers mean little, trends matter


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## Tanis8472 (21 Apr 2020)

Swmbo's aunt's partner died yesterday of cv. She got infected at hospital where she works and transmitted to her family. 
She's utterly distraught.


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## marinyork (21 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Can anyone explain how air pollution can be singled out as an aggravating factor in covid deaths when population density will also be high - and thus a higher viral load - in ''dirty'' areas?
> 
> (the quote below is from the Guardian Live)
> 
> ...



It is a respiratory disease, it's not that controversial, if hard to demonstrate. we also know air pollution hurts parts of the immune system. If it didn't matter we wouldn't have the 1.5 million letters or various people on here quite worried.

The viral load won't be the same everywhere in cities and ever changing whereas long term exposure to pollution will be more constant. The pollution maps of Italy which don't always correlate with population density are um interesting to say the least.


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## tom73 (21 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Swmbo's aunt's partner died yesterday of cv. She got infected at hospital where she works and transmitted to her family.
> She's utterly distraught.



So sorry to hear about your loss. 
It should't be happening at another time the current rate of workplace deaths and everyone would be up in arms. 
But too many appear to be happy to turn a blind eye at this. Putting yourself at risk though cutting conners is one thing. But having to put yourself at risk though other peoples balls up is quite another.


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## marinyork (21 Apr 2020)

Interesting article with graphics on the ONS's preliminary findings on 8000 excess deaths in the week ending 10th April

https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/04/8000-more-deaths-normal-week-10-april-ons-says


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## rualexander (21 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> New Zealand, by contrast, has been highly effective and has a prepared level of alerts which can be expected to be stepped through.
> 
> https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/covid-19-alert-system/



There are several reasons why NZ may have coped with this better than many countries.
One might be the fact that they have a robust Civil Defence organisation, primarily to deal with earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but which probably was able to adapt quickly to the current situation.


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## Unkraut (21 Apr 2020)

rualexander said:


> There are several reasons why NZ may have coped with this better than many countries.


They started to respond early, iirc when there were only about 150 cases in the country.


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## mjr (21 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Can anyone explain how air pollution can be singled out as an aggravating factor in covid deaths when population density will also be high - and thus a higher viral load - in ''dirty'' areas?


Air pollution and population density don't correlate perfectly, so a statistical process like a Principal Components Analysis will be able to determine if the two are "aliases" in explaining covid mortality - in other words, if you could ignore air pollution and only include population density in a predictive model without the model being less accurate. So in terms of this video, it would be like finding that some PC was exactly population density and that adding a PC for air pollution didn't change the plot at all, that it accounts for zero variation:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgakZw6K1QQ


It's actually like a situation shown in Tip 3 in this follow-up video where maths scores perfectly predict reading scores, but I'm not sure if it makes sense without its precursor:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRvgq966yZg


That probably (hopefully!) won't be exactly what they're doing, but PCA is probably the best-known similar technique and so has better explanations available than some others.


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## mjr (21 Apr 2020)

Is this the strongest indication yet that airborne propagation is very significant? (article in French, but graphic in English) https://www.rtbf.be/info/societe/de...l-exemple-d-un-restaurant-chinois?id=10485461


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## mjr (21 Apr 2020)

Amazon France extends its sulk over not being allowed to sell non-essential items (and thereby poach even more sales from French businesses that are obeying the law), while it continues to circumvent the law by shipping French orders from its UK warehouses: https://www.cnet.com/news/amazon-fr...avirus-safety-dispute-workers-home-wednesday/ following from https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/amazon-face-off-in-france-serves-as-worker-rights-test-case-1.1422791

ETA more coverage about Amazon UK shipping non-essential orders and worker inability to verify whether or not they're being protected properly: https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/amazon-give-uk-workers-pay-21902428


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Apr 2020)

rualexander said:


> There are several reasons why NZ may have coped with this better than many countries.
> One might be the fact that they have a robust Civil Defence organisation, primarily to deal with earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but which probably was able to adapt quickly to the current situation.



Sure. 

They had a plan, and executed it. 

Rather than deciding Brexit ideology is more important than breathing. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...0826d9592b5e7e#block-5e9f0e288f0826d9592b5e7e


----------



## Rickshaw Phil (21 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Swmbo's aunt's partner died yesterday of cv. She got infected at hospital where she works and transmitted to her family.
> She's utterly distraught.


I'm so sorry to read this. Not sure what to say other than I offer my condolences.


----------



## Inertia (21 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Swmbo's aunt's partner died yesterday of cv. She got infected at hospital where she works and transmitted to her family.
> She's utterly distraught.


That is awful, I can only imagine how she must feel. So sorry


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Apr 2020)

The UK has now managed to complete more tests per capita than Mauritius! Montenegro next....only another 30 nations doing better than us. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


----------



## nickyboy (21 Apr 2020)

PPE update...I've spent the day calling Trusts and filling in Central Procurement forms

Really calling the Trusts is hopeless. I'm always put through to someone in charge of the pencil budget by reception. Zero response from Central Purchasing. 

It's frustrating because in addition to a v good surgical mask supplier who can do 50k per day, we've now got an N95 mask supplier who can do gazillions

I've registered with the four biggest care home companies but, guess what, no reply. It's an automated system, you can't talk to their Head of Purchasing or whoever

I can see how people get frustrated and give up


----------



## gavgav (21 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Surprising numbers today (778) - would seem tightening the lockdown is perhaps closer than easing up.


The daily figures, on their own, are not giving the whole picture, as they don’t just look at deaths from yesterday, in fact the majority of them are probably from around a week or so ago, due to the lag in death confirmation and reporting.

It’s the trend that is the key, which has flattened as a whole, but hasn’t yet started to drop, so a long way to go yet.


----------



## kingrollo (21 Apr 2020)

gavgav said:


> The daily figures, on their own, are not giving the whole picture, as they don’t just look at deaths from yesterday, in fact the majority of them are probably from around a week or so ago, due to the lag in death confirmation and reporting.
> 
> It’s the trend that is the key, which has flattened as a whole, but hasn’t yet started to drop, so a long way to go yet.


Well considering we reported 980 at the peak - about 800 at the weekend I was expecting a downward trend. I am aware of the lags - but that's the same for any day - accept perhaps the weekend.


----------



## kingrollo (21 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> PPE update...I've spent the day calling Trusts and filling in Central Procurement forms
> 
> Really calling the Trusts is hopeless. I'm always put through to someone in charge of the pencil budget by reception. Zero response from Central Purchasing.
> 
> ...


Email Rachel reeves - she is asking suppliers to do that.


----------



## kingrollo (21 Apr 2020)

Matt Hancock sounding a bit desparate now - he can't get PPE, no one likes the app idea, he doesn't want the general public wearing masks ( I wonder why!!!) ...and feck knows what was going on with the EU PPE ventilator scheme....

But the man who had failed to deliver the deliverable .......is now promising the vaccine ! - that many think undeliverable !............ worryingly in the UK is Matt coming good with the vaccine our best hope ?????


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Apr 2020)

Talking of deliverables, has anybody heard anything about that Turkish consignment? It all seems to have gone quiet....


----------



## tom73 (21 Apr 2020)

Not just any old promise he's 'throwing everything" at developing one. 
Only thing so fair is he's thrown is a load of money at it with no word on if UK is 1st in line for any possible UK developed vaccine.


----------



## Adam4868 (21 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Talking of deliverables, has anybody heard anything about that Turkish consignment? It all seems to have gone quiet....


Few Porky's told ?
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...er-it-said-it-was-already-on-its-way-11976238


----------



## tom73 (21 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Talking of deliverables, has anybody heard anything about that Turkish consignment? It all seems to have gone quiet....



oh yes it looks to have disappeared as quick as it's magically appeared. The last word was the RAF had arrived and waiting for it do the loaded. 
Maybe Matt's cheque has bounced


----------



## kingrollo (21 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Talking of deliverables, has anybody heard anything about that Turkish consignment? It all seems to have gone quiet....


We won't need it if we have a vaccine !


----------



## mjr (21 Apr 2020)

gavgav said:


> The daily figures, on their own, are not giving the whole picture, as they don’t just look at deaths from yesterday, in fact the majority of them are probably from around a week or so ago, due to the lag in death confirmation and reporting.


What's your source for that, please?

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronav...ion-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths claims the lag is only "a few days".


----------



## Buck (22 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> What's your source for that, please?
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronav...ion-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths claims the lag is only "a few days".



looking at this chart:-

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...9-total-announced-deaths-21-April-2020-1.xlsx

It looks like the deaths reported go back as far as late March?


----------



## Buck (22 Apr 2020)




----------



## screenman (22 Apr 2020)

Talking to guys in the USA this morning and there is no way they would have a jab in the arm, not they are not getting the message out there.


----------



## tom73 (22 Apr 2020)

So the PPE from Turkey has arrived. Well sort of turns out they only sent one aeroplane. Which is not big enough. So only half the stuff has arrived. They’ve now put the RAF back on standby to get the rest  

In other news the briefing today will be hosted by cocoa the clown.


----------



## screenman (22 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> So the PPE from Turkey has arrived. Well sort of turns out they only sent one aeroplane. Which is not big enough. So only half the stuff has arrived. They’ve now put the RAF back on standby to get the rest
> 
> In other news the briefing today will be hosted by cocoa the clown.



I read the problem for all that was at our end.


----------



## mjr (22 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> So the PPE from Turkey has arrived. Well sort of turns out they only sent one aeroplane. Which is not big enough. So only half the stuff has arrived. They’ve now put the RAF back on standby to get the rest
> 
> In other news the briefing today will be hosted by cocoa the clown.


Oddly, the BBC TV headline news this morning mentioned none of that.


----------



## tom73 (22 Apr 2020)

screenman said:


> I read the problem for all that was at our end.



Most likely yes won't surprise me if the RAF told them but they said send it anyway as it look's good for the TV. 

On the news last night BBC reported from Turkey they've filled school class rooms with equipment and got the teachers making PPE on mass. 
They had the whole thing up and running in a week it looked to be all joined up and working well. 
Making so much they've sent stuff all over the world 
The education minister said it was the least they could do to help. 
Meanwhile old Matt and co are running round like headless chickens.


----------



## MarkF (22 Apr 2020)

screenman said:


> Talking to guys in the USA this morning and there is no way they would have a jab in the arm, not they are not getting the message out there.



Vaccine disasters in the USA are infamous.


----------



## tom73 (22 Apr 2020)

So is the wooden tops anti-vac brigade.


----------



## marinyork (22 Apr 2020)

Guardian expose on PPE storage

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-ppe-stockpile-was-sold-in-middle-of-pandemic


----------



## tom73 (22 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Guardian expose on PPE storage
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-ppe-stockpile-was-sold-in-middle-of-pandemic



FFS you can't make this stuff up.


----------



## matticus (22 Apr 2020)

Buck said:


> View attachment 516960


I've deliberately avoided looking for decent graphs of this for a couple of weeks (for varous reasons!): 

But this seems pretty clear indication that we're on a down-slope. Doesn't it? It doesn't matter about lag (that would just delay the peak). I'm not aware of testing getting *worse*. What am I missing?


----------



## marinyork (22 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> I've deliberately avoided looking for decent graphs of this for a couple of weeks (for varous reasons!):
> 
> But this seems pretty clear indication that we're on a down-slope. Doesn't it? It doesn't matter about lag (that would just delay the peak). I'm not aware of testing getting *worse*. What am I missing?



The numbers of patients in hospital for covid-19 graphs are mostly flat or declining and have been for days. 

Discussion around this has been that the peak in London may have been 8th April or more recently.

It may be many weeks of slow downward trend, that is the case in Italy.


----------



## kingrollo (22 Apr 2020)

Sheilding letter this morning - 12 weeks from date of letter...


----------



## tom73 (22 Apr 2020)

Well that's Mrs 73 seen off on her 1st rapid response shift. In at the deep end on Covid respiratory unit let's hope she won't need her ventilator skills or even more so her palliative care ones. 
Stay safe everyone and keep her and 1000's of others safe too.


----------



## mjr (22 Apr 2020)

Electronic Frontier Foundation covid-19 and privacy event 8pm tonight: https://www.eff.org/event/home-eff-covid-19-free-speech-and-privacy


----------



## mjr (22 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Discussion around this has been that the peak in London may have been 8th April or more recently.


That seems surprising when Belgium I think declared its peak as probably 12th/13th and is thought to be a week ahead of us (and about a week behind Italy).

Other rtbf news today: debates about end-of-year uni exams, mask-wearing, observation of Luxembourg relaxing its measures but requiring lots of mask-wearing and details of what the Belgian expert commission is expected to suggest for relaxation there. If I've understood it correctly, recreational activities of up to 10 people may be authorised. Oh and today would have been the Flèche Wallonne but it's banned so they sent a reporter to ride up the deserted 19% Mur de Huy.


----------



## mjr (22 Apr 2020)

On a lighter note, Germany's heute show continues to rip the pee-pee out of the wildly inconsistent application of lockdown between Germany's states: "The Constitution Takes a Holiday", picture of a tank drone (converted bomb robot?) shouting at a woman to go home, "Millions of Germans Cannot Read Properly", picnicking in Cologne with beer and junk food bought from a park kiosk is legal but it becomes criminal (€250 fine IIRC) if you bring homebaked cakes.  and that's not even the daftest ones they showed but the others don't photo as well!


----------



## mjr (22 Apr 2020)

Well, it was somewhat startling to switch on the TV for the daily briefing and be greeted by a man in camouflage (Chief of Defence Staff Carter, apparently). We started wondering if Boris has been watching, decided he has no confidence in the cabinet and handed the country over to the army for safekeeping until he's well...


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Apr 2020)

Here's one for idiots like me who smoke - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

If you smoke and catch CV-19 you're quite likely to have more severe respiratory complications. On the other hand, if you smoke, it looks like you're significantly less likely to catch it.

(For the record, I think I caught CV-19 at the end of late February, but I still have a bad cough since the illness.)


----------



## Salty seadog (22 Apr 2020)

This can't be right. This is the Tories were talking about. 

What the EU procurement furore tells us about Johnson's real priorities

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ndemic?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard


----------



## gavgav (22 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well considering we reported 980 at the peak - about 800 at the weekend I was expecting a downward trend. I am aware of the lags - but that's the same for any day - accept perhaps the weekend.


But the lags differ for each patient, some are confirmed quickly and some aren’t. Believe me, I know, as sadly I’m submitting a multitude of the figures daily. What I’m saying is 7 day periods give a better idea of the trend, which currently seems flattened, maybe dropping very slightly, fingers crossed


----------



## tom73 (22 Apr 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> This can't be right. This is the Tories were talking about.
> 
> What the EU procurement furore tells us about Johnson's real priorities
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ndemic?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard



Not saying it’s right that we did not sign up to it. But BBC did slip in to the reporting last night. That none of the goods ordered weeks ago have even arrived.
Not joining in is not why we are in the mess we are. It’s too simple to blame this but then it’s nice and simple reporting and quick way to sell papers.


----------



## Unkraut (22 Apr 2020)

On the 8 o'clock news tonight the Paul Ehrlich institute has been given approval to start human trials of a possible vaccine, and the intention is to commence by the end of April. These are the people who oversee the actual laboratory developing the vaccine and the possible side effects it may have. 

Some 200 healthy people will bravely volunteer for this.


----------



## Rusty Nails (22 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> On the 8 o'clock news tonight the Paul Ehrlich institute has been given approval to start human trials of a possible vaccine, and the intention is to commence by the end of April. These are the people who oversee the actual laboratory developing the vaccine and the possible side effects it may have.
> 
> Some 200 healthy people will bravely volunteer for this.



Oxford University are recruiting volunteers for testing the vaccine they have been working on.

It looks as if scientists all around the world are making similar progress, hopefully.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (22 Apr 2020)

imperial college LONDON doing trials as well.


----------



## tom73 (22 Apr 2020)

Wonder if they will follow Salk and give it away for free as gift to humanity?
Some how I can't see that happening sadly.


----------



## kingrollo (22 Apr 2020)

gavgav said:


> But the lags differ for each patient, some are confirmed quickly and some aren’t. Believe me, I know, as sadly I’m submitting a multitude of the figures daily. What I’m saying is 7 day periods give a better idea of the trend, which currently seems flattened, maybe dropping very slightly, fingers crossed



I fully get what you saying - what I am saying is that one days lag is going to be similar to another days lag (except weekends) . Like this week, Tuesdays and Wednesdays figures are similar - I thought that both on those days would be lower than what now seems like the uk average of 750-800


----------



## mjr (22 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> imperial college LONDON doing trials as well.


No one thought it would be Imperial College Odisha, although you wouldn't be completely surprised if Hancock had commissioned them by mistake.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (22 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> No one thought it would be Imperial College Odisha, although you wouldn't be completely surprised if Hancock had commissioned them by mistake.



Eh?


----------



## mjr (22 Apr 2020)

gavgav said:


> What I’m saying is 7 day periods give a better idea of the trend, which currently seems flattened, maybe dropping very slightly, fingers crossed


As if by magic, Whitty showed a 7 day moving average graph at today's briefing.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (22 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Oxford University are recruiting volunteers for testing the vaccine they have been working on.
> 
> It looks as if scientists all around the world are making similar progress, hopefully.


Are the various teams following the same approach or have they looking at alternative possible solutions?


----------



## gavgav (22 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I fully get what you saying - what I am saying is that one days lag is going to be similar to another days lag (except weekends) . Like this week, Tuesdays and Wednesdays figures are similar - I thought that both on those days would be lower than what now seems like the uk average of 750-800


We are broadly following the same pattern as in Italy, but are 3 weeks behind. They are now averaging 450/500 deaths per day.


----------



## gavgav (22 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Well that's Mrs 73 seen off on her 1st rapid response shift. In at the deep end on Covid respiratory unit let's hope she won't need her ventilator skills or even more so her palliative care ones.
> Stay safe everyone and keep her and 1000's of others safe too.


Best wishes to Mrs 73, doing a fantastic job on the frontline, like so many currently.


----------



## tom73 (22 Apr 2020)

We need to have some sort of parliament. But trying to have a parliament running more or less the same as we’ve always done it. As if nothing really is wrong feels like a complete joke. 
Saying that it was a joke before just now they can't hide the fact.


----------



## Levo-Lon (23 Apr 2020)

Lockdown is obviously over in Peterborough

Cycling home from one side of the city to the other from work I've noticed a big difference this week.
Yes it's been sunny but it seems people have decided to ignore the rules.
Considerable increase in people about, sunbathing, small groups, cars being driven to areas to walk dogs...

Couple of weeks ago police were out in force preventing this.

Orton mere was a joke ,there was about 12 people on the River bridge,  Nene valley railway crossing was busy, 2gates..I think Mr Policeman needs to come back.


----------



## ozboz (23 Apr 2020)

I have just watched this , just as a matter of interest what do others on here think of this Woman’s response , 

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jh6ddgDsoo4&feature=youtu.be


----------



## alicat (23 Apr 2020)

I didn't listen to it all the way through but she's bang to rights and she should just have got quietly home the first time that they approached her. "When you're in a hole, stop digging."


----------



## Tail End Charlie (23 Apr 2020)

One of the "I know my rights brigade".


----------



## newfhouse (23 Apr 2020)

ozboz said:


> I have just watched this , just as a matter of interest what do others on here think of this Woman’s response ,
> 
> View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jh6ddgDsoo4&feature=youtu.be



I’m as liberal as they come, but now is not the time for playing games like this. I thought the cops were exceptionally patient but she painted herself into a corner and left them with no choice. She may or may not be right about the enforceability of the regulations. The way to deal with that is to provide details, accept the FPN and then use the court process to test whether she was in breach or not.


----------



## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

She is right within the law but not the spirt. 
She lost her argument early on when she said along the lines of if I catch it , it only effects me..... 
No it effects everyone she's just being a selfish total knob. 
In the end she got arrested for being a prat and she most likely carried it on in custody. 
Staff have better things to do than deal with the likes of her. 
I've said it before but it's fact people like her are killing people.


----------



## johnnyb47 (23 Apr 2020)

Wow. Why on earth didn't she just go home as requested. The police have got a difficult job as it is, without people like that arguing about the fine in,s and outs of the law. They just want to minimise the risks of this virus from spreading. She said if she catches it, that would be her problem. Its not though is it. She puts the NHS at greater strain and everyone around her at risk. She may inenvertanty become a carrier of this disease without even knowing. This is just one case of selfishness and the risks would be miniscule, but what if we all behaved like this. The spread of the virus would be much more likely. 
As for exercising the mind by watching the sun set what a load of cobblers. To me it means she wants to de stress by by sitting on a public bench and enjoy the sun set. Surely the choice of going to the police station to de stress is more stressful than watching the sun set 
Why didn't she just go home. An hour and half sitting on the bench is more than ample time in this day and age instead of trying to play the police at there own game. 
18000 people have died in the uk so far and the police and medics are doing what can say are an amazing job trying to deal with such unprecedented times. There using there best judgement and really don't need awkward people like this trying to run rings around them. Yes it does feel like house arrest sometimes with big brother watching over us, but its only being done for our own safety. 
We all have our different views and will understand if others take offence to mine but to me i think this lady has acted disgracefully.


----------



## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

So 1000's of former HCP's and student HCP's out of a sense of humanity came back to work. 
Some have sadly died now it turns out they are not entitled to death in service payment.
They stepped up to help others now it's the turn of the state to do the same.


----------



## Electric_Andy (23 Apr 2020)

What a thoroughly annoying woman. I thought exercise was limited to 1 hour anyway, but the rules seem to have changed. it is quite obvious that PHYSICAL exercise is permitted outdoors because you can't really walk or jog indoors. You can meditate indoors though, or in your garden/balcony if you have one. if you don't, then there's plenty of ways around it (meditation tracks on all types of media, sunset screensaver apps on your TV etc). I don't think the Police approached it in the right way though. They gave her a warning 45 minutes previously. They should have just said "go home now or you'll get a ticket". Pandering to people like this, at a time of international crisis, only sends a soft touch message to people. Imagine if someone was drink driving, and the police just gave them a warning and said "well we've warned you before that you are over the limit...just finish that 6th beer and please go home". I know we don't want draconian attitudes from the police about everything, but this seems very clear cut to me.


----------



## newfhouse (23 Apr 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I don't think the Police approached it in the right way though. They gave her a warning 45 minutes previously. They should have just said "go home now or you'll get a ticket". Pandering to people like this, at a time of international crisis, only sends a soft touch message to people.


I think the officers adopted exactly the right approach, in line with the four E’s:
https://www.met.police.uk/advice/ad...9/coronavirus-covid-19/the-new-police-powers/


----------



## AndyRM (23 Apr 2020)

She's a dick. I cannot stand people like her.


----------



## oldwheels (23 Apr 2020)

Standing outside it the coop queue yesterday a couple of obvious tourists came strolling along the middle of the street. How do we know they are tourists? Until they reached the coop they inspected all the shop windows and continued doing this after they had passed. Their dress style identified them as non local and they looked Italian but certainly Mediterranean appearance. 
As the queue was stretched out for about 200 meters with at least 2 metres separation the mutterings were quite loud which must have reached them but they swept on regardless.
How on earth did they evade the check points?
The ones seen a few days ago seem to have vanished either into hiding or "persuaded" on to the the next ferry.


----------



## MarkF (23 Apr 2020)

Good news this morning.

Test data reassuring for frontline helathcare workers.

Whatever happened to modesty & professionalism?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...staff-dancing-fooling-coronavirus-crisis.html


----------



## davidphilips (23 Apr 2020)

ozboz said:


> I have just watched this , just as a matter of interest what do others on here think of this Woman’s response ,
> 
> View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jh6ddgDsoo4&feature=youtu.be




What a thoroughly annoying woman really hope she was finned, my thoughts are she shown no regard either for the lockdown or respect for the police.


----------



## Levo-Lon (23 Apr 2020)

davidphilips said:


> What a thoroughly annoying woman really hope she was finned, my thoughts are she shown no regard either for the lockdown or respect for the police.




To be fair a taser and throw in river would be better..pity we have to be seen as considerate to these shyte people


----------



## Unkraut (23 Apr 2020)

Interesting piece of linguistic analysis from the States...

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zZv7t0vl...P_kq07h9pAmSrqwCLcBGAsYHQ/s640/talkingpts.jpg


----------



## Stephenite (23 Apr 2020)

Meditating, my arse. She'd admitted to have been drinking. She was getting pissed on a park bench. Shows how much of a dick she is by putting the video on YT.


----------



## Electric_Andy (23 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Good news this morning.
> 
> Test data reassuring for frontline helathcare workers.
> 
> ...


I've just been on a call and heard from my NHS colleagues that the tests are unreliable. A high rate of of false negatives (based on hearsay, not fact). We were quoted our figures from the south west (low infection rate): 400 and something confirmed cases, 700 and something deaths?? Which we were told is because there's very little testing going on.

There are loads of these types of videos going around. I get that key workers need to have some fun and a break. But why does everyone need to upload them to social media now? I was asked to create one for our team the other day. I said no. In the teams' defence though, it's hardly as if they were dancing INSTEAD of treating critically ill patients. But that's the image some people will get from it, especially those whose loved ones are seriously ill or have died. Which is perhaps why these videos shouldn't be uploaded


----------



## Bhitucyclist (23 Apr 2020)

Just stumbled across your post - now as they - the rest is history ! 😔


----------



## Glow worm (23 Apr 2020)

davidphilips said:


> What a thoroughly annoying woman really hope she was finned, my thoughts are she shown no regard either for the lockdown or respect for the police.





Levo-Lon said:


> To be fair a taser and throw in river would be better




She's a lot more likely to be finned in the river too!
Straight from the 'It's my right, I'll do what I want'' Brigade. Insufferable. Police incredibly patient with her. I'm not sure I'd have shown such restraint.


----------



## lane (23 Apr 2020)

The day before yesterday I saw someone someone from the WHO say that social distancing would be with us for the foreseeable future. Then yesterday Whitty parrots the exact same phrase at the briefing. Am I the only one who thinks Whitty seems a waste of space.


----------



## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I've just been on a call and heard from my NHS colleagues that the tests are unreliable. A high rate of of false negatives (based on hearsay, not fact). We were quoted our figures from the south west (low infection rate): 400 and something confirmed cases, 700 and something deaths?? Which we were told is because there's very little testing going on.
> 
> There are loads of these types of videos going around. I get that key workers need to have some fun and a break. But why does everyone need to upload them to social media now? I was asked to create one for our team the other day. I said no. In the teams' defence though, it's hardly as if they were dancing INSTEAD of treating critically ill patients. But that's the image some people will get from it, especially those whose loved ones are seriously ill or have died. Which is perhaps why these videos shouldn't be uploaded



It was reported in the Daily hate so say's all you need to know really.


----------



## Beebo (23 Apr 2020)

She’s so confident that she is correct that she has posted the video herself.


----------



## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

If you still think this whole thing is joke well you may have a chance to prove it. 
Los Vegas Mayor offers the city to be a control group. 

View: https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1253041723510587394?s=21


----------



## Andy in Germany (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> If you still think this whole thing is joke well you may have a chance to prove it.
> Los Vegas Mayor offers the city to be a control group.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1253041723510587394?s=21




Well, it's a gambling city after all...


----------



## marinyork (23 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> The day before yesterday I saw someone someone from the WHO say that social distancing would be with us for the foreseeable future. Then yesterday Whitty parrots the exact same phrase at the briefing. Am I the only one who thinks Whitty seems a waste of space.



Not really. He's said a key part of controlling an epidemic is changing a population's behaviour. Long before the present outbreak.

I found this more recently. 
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn55z95L1h8

Shame that the public press conferences have mostly been dumbed down. They could have just played this video in March instead of the press conferences, or better still early March/late Feb.

The unknown in terms of sage/government is the behavioural science stuff and how this interacts with other stuff.


----------



## lane (23 Apr 2020)

Thanks for that. What's his actual job? You know when there isn't a pandemic? I get the impression he must be some sort of gorified administrator but am probably wrong.


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## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

Whitty is the CMO he's not the government he and the rest can only give advice they don't make things happen governments do. 
All he's giving is facts not sound bites he's not part of the "I must be seen to popular in the media" game. 
They ask a question he replies with science in matter of fact way he's not about to give the reply the media want to hear.


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## lane (23 Apr 2020)

The impression I get is that the advice which was correct / actually mattered was provided by University College London and Whitty gave some seriously dodgy advice on herd immunity which was why there was a delay in doing what should have been done. Is he competent?


----------



## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Thanks for that. What's his actual job? You know when there isn't a pandemic? I get the impression he must be some sort of gorified administrator but am probably wrong.



He's still a practicing Dr at UCLH he was till becoming CMO A Professor of Public and International Health at LSHTM
A pen pusher he's not and is well respected is his field put in simple terms his government job is basally to act as the lead on all matters of public health.


----------



## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> The impression I get is that the advice which was correct / actually mattered was provided by University College London and Whitty gave some seriously dodgy advice on herd immunity which was why there was a delay in doing what should have been done. Is he competent?



The current situation has meant that the language of science such as Herd immunity has met the world of political language. Which leads to this being taken totally out of context in turn mediated by the press. With little idea of what they are even on about let alone any facts then add in the SM factor and before you know it everyone becomes an expert and the next John Snow.


----------



## kingrollo (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> He's still a practicing Dr at UCLH he was till becoming CMO A Professor of Public and International Health at LSHTM
> A pen pusher he's not and is well respected is his field put in simple terms his government job is basally to act as the lead on all matters of public health.


Wouldn't like to have his job at the moment. He seems to be Johnsons/Rabb/Hancock's scapegoat in waiting.


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## marinyork (23 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> The impression I get is that the advice which was correct / actually mattered was provided by University College London and Whitty gave some seriously dodgy advice on herd immunity which was why there was a delay in doing what should have been done. Is he competent?



The government are supposed to have ran newer data and changed their minds. A similar thing happened with the most prestigious modelers or epidemics in the world where they re-ran with newer UK data and came out with a drastically different outcome. 

It does have to be said that we still basically have a herd immunity problem. It's not gone away. It's just that the 1-peakers are losing the media battle. 

Much earlier in the pandemic there was an enormous amount of abuse hurled Germany's way by Italy about their strategy, how everyone in Germany was going to die.


----------



## lane (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> The current situation has meant that the language of science such as Herd immunity has met the world of political language. Which leads to this being taken totally out of context in turn mediated by the press. With little idea of what they are even on about let alone any facts then add in the SM factor and before you know it everyone becomes an expert and the next John Snow.



Maybe. But then the WHO and a lot of other Scientists (not Joe Public) took issue with his original advice at the time.


----------



## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Wouldn't like to have his job at the moment. He seems to be Johnsons/Rabb/Hancock's scapegoat in waiting.


They'd have to very brave to do that once out on his ear he'd be free to reveal just how incompetent they have been. He's been in the same meetings as them and will have seen and heard everything.


----------



## marinyork (23 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Maybe. But then the WHO and a lot of other Scientists (not Joe Public) took issue with his original advice at the time.



I think the broad WHO mutterings in general take very little heed of how people in the western world actually behave. 

The testing points by the WHO make are absolutely spot on. Unfortunately it's not a real world consideration. Even our government knows that they need more testing, they are just incapable of running a system and completely incompetent at overseeing a national system. Not one single piece of advice the WHO has ever given that I've heard is of any relevance to changing that.


----------



## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Maybe. But then the WHO and a lot of other Scientists (not Joe Public) took issue with his original advice at the time.


That's how a lot of science works it's just that the current situation is so big a story. The disagreements are happening in public until this is all over no-one really knows what the right thing to do is.


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## johnnyb47 (23 Apr 2020)

I think the next big thing will be protests from the general public about the lock down and the impact it will have on the economy and jobs. 
As the infection rate drops and deaths from it subside, there will be mounting pressure to ease restrictions, but the government will probably be reluctant to do this quickly just in case there's a second wave of this dreadful disease. 
Its a balancing act the government will have to manage very carefully without causing widespread criticism


----------



## lane (23 Apr 2020)

Seems the WHO are still not happy with the CMO and deputy CMO

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...e-ppe-whitty-jenny-harries-sage-a9474201.html

Dr Rupert Beale, head of the cell biology of infection lab at the Francis Crick Institute, added: “Agree completely. Next level incompetence bordering on malice. Time for wholesale resignations and a reordering of the so far pathetic UK response.”


----------



## SpokeyDokey (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> They'd have to very brave to do that once out on his ear he'd be free to reveal just how incompetent they have been. He's been in the same meetings as them and will have seen and heard everything.



I'm time out on the competence/incompetence front - none of us know the full facts although there is an army of self-appointed experts who seem to think they do when they can't possibly know.

In an alternative scenario Whitty could well say how *competent *the Gov' were in the meetings he attended.

Time will tell in the same manner that the Chilcott enquiry did.

I think that there is a danger in injecting confirmation bias into possible future outcomes.


----------



## lane (23 Apr 2020)

johnnyb47 said:


> I think the next big thing will be protests from the general public about the lock down and the impact it will have on the economy and jobs.
> As the infection rate drops and deaths from it subside, there will be mounting pressure to ease restrictions, but the government will probably be reluctant to do this quickly just in case there's a second wave of this dreadful disease.
> Its a balancing act the government will have to manage very carefully without causing widespread criticism



There is already less compliance. I think it won't be possible to keep things as they are for any further period of time after the next review date whatever the evidence may suggest.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (23 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Seems the WHO are still not happy with the CMO and deputy CMO
> 
> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...e-ppe-whitty-jenny-harries-sage-a9474201.html
> 
> Dr Rupert Beale, head of the cell biology of infection lab at the Francis Crick Institute, added: “Agree completely. Next level incompetence bordering on malice. Time for wholesale resignations and a reordering of the so far pathetic UK response.”



I imagine that long knives are being sharpened everywhere. 

Interesting that the attack is now at a level below that of the Government.

I should imagine that NHS senior management will be on the radar as well. The media etc are probably already digging.

Saddens me really, at the end of the day everyone is probably trying to do their best in unprecedented circumstances and we end up with a hysterical situation similar to the Salem Witch Hunt scenario. 

There will be a time for reckoning and appropriate action but right now it is less than helpful


----------



## Mo1959 (23 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> There is already less compliance. I think it won't be possible to keep things as they are for any further period of time after the next review date whatever the evidence may suggest.


Yes. I’ve noticed a gradual increase in traffic and movement of people. I can‘t see the British public abiding by strict measures for much longer.


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## SpokeyDokey (23 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Yes. I’ve noticed a gradual increase in traffic and movement of people. I can‘t see the British public abiding by strict measures for much longer.



Starting to be noticeable in The Lakes too.


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## Beebo (23 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Yes. I’ve noticed a gradual increase in traffic and movement of people. I can‘t see the British public abiding by strict measures for much longer.


When this current 3 week lockdown ends there will be a requirement to show us the exit route.
Another 3 weeks without explanation will be unacceptable to a large proportion of the population. 
we need to know when schools are reopening, will we be able to visit relatives, can we return to work.


----------



## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I'm time out on the competence/incompetence front - none of us know the full facts although there is an army of self-appointed experts who seem to think they do when they can't possibly know.
> 
> In an alternative scenario Whitty could well say how *competent *the Gov' were in the meetings he attended.
> 
> ...



He may well say that. In same ways they maybe seen as being competent. They may start out with good intentions but much of the governments response has mostly come down to a total lack of leadership and not asking for the right help at the right time.


----------



## lane (23 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Yes. I’ve noticed a gradual increase in traffic and movement of people. I can‘t see the British public abiding by strict measures for much longer.



I was talking to someone working in a school yesterday. Once the next 3 week lockdown was announced they had an increase in people sending children into the school because they were going back to work and were classed as key workers.


----------



## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I imagine that long knives are being sharpened everywhere.
> 
> Interesting that the attack is now at a level below that of the Government.
> 
> ...



It can also prove to be deadly as the sad case of David Kelly shows.


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## SpokeyDokey (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> It can also prove to be deadly as the sad case of David Keely shows.



Kelly?


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## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Kelly?


too right sorted now


----------



## SpokeyDokey (23 Apr 2020)

Views from Geoff Barton re reopening England's schools:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52377277

Logistical nightmare for teachers if/when it happens.


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## SpokeyDokey (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> too right sorted now



Yes, it was a very sad case.


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## marinyork (23 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Views from Geoff Barton re reopening England's schools:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52377277
> 
> Logistical nightmare for teachers if/when it happens.



To be fair to the government(s), this was one reason why it was said once they close they'll remain closed for a long time - among other specific timescales given which were 12 weeks, 13 weeks and 16 weeks.


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## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Views from Geoff Barton re reopening England's schools:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52377277
> 
> Logistical nightmare for teachers if/when it happens.


Schools are a right pandoras box. I can't see them opening anytime soon maybe not till over the summer. 
Even then it will be every different set up which our current education thinking is not really open to change. 
As the current total mess up of what distance learning really is shows. 
The real focus has to be on the ones with most need at the biggest who have just completely gone of the radar. 
No-one is checking up on them or making sure they are getting the right support. 
They are still able to go school but few are turning up. many know findthemslves full time in homes that really don't a stuff about them. 
Or worse face daily acts of violence. 
I really worry about the ones I supported as no one really cared about them in school never mind outside it.


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## Julia9054 (23 Apr 2020)

As teachers, I and my colleagues are not finding working at home easy. We have all put ourselves forward to be on the rota for being in school and I have been disappointed not to be called on yet. 
Had a departmental meeting this morning via zoom. One of our department has a temperature, headache and dry cough. 
She was on the rota and did a day in school exactly 7 days ago.


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## marinyork (23 Apr 2020)

Medics, mostly doctors are setting up a contact tracing network in the UK.

Unfortunately from the news report the areas they are targeting here are not the most in need of this.


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## matticus (23 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> As teachers, I and my colleagues are not finding working at home easy. We have all put ourselves forward to be on the rota for being in school and I have been disappointed not to be called on yet.
> Had a departmental meeting this morning via zoom. One of our department has a temperature, headache and dry cough.
> She was on the rota and did a day in school exactly 7 days ago.


I guess you realised you do actually like spending time with the kids after all! :P

Given all the disruption to lesson plans, assessment, exams yada yada ... what is the opinion in the Staffroom?
Would you rather have plenty of notice for a clean restart (say in September), or just get the kids back and learning ASAP, even if short notice makes it rather chaotic?


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## Julia9054 (23 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> I guess you realised you do actually like spending time with the kids after all! :P
> 
> Given all the disruption to lesson plans, assessment, exams yada yada ... what is the opinion in the Staffroom?
> Would you rather have plenty of notice for a clean restart (say in September), or just get the kids back and learning ASAP, even if short notice makes it rather chaotic?


We all already knew we like spending time with the kids. It’s the workload (and often the other adults) teachers moan about! 
Assuming we as a country are following medical advice, I would be in favour of some sort of phased return before the summer holidays - possibly in July. It probably wouldn’t look like normal school, but would ease children back into some sort of routine in preparation for September. Thought would have to be given to what we do about pupils currently in year 10 and 12 who have missed teaching time on their exam courses. Reducing grade boundaries next year, reducing the course content or (worst option) trying to cram it in by reducing holiday time have all been discussed nationally.


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## matticus (23 Apr 2020)

Cool, that doesn't really surprise me (apart from the about liking the kids...). More left-field question:
If medical advice means you CANNOT get most kids back in _before_ the summer break, is there any appetite for starting the "September" turn early? (most kids will have had far more than 6 weeks off anyway)

(Indicentally, I understand Sweden are bringing back Y10/11 kids first. Dunno if this is because they are in the most critical period for exams, or that they are more mature in understanding infection control?)


----------



## Edwardoka (23 Apr 2020)

ozboz said:


> I have just watched this , just as a matter of interest what do others on here think of this Woman’s response ,
> 
> View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jh6ddgDsoo4&feature=youtu.be



What an awful woman.
I don't know why the extremely patient, extremely polite officer asked her name though, it's obviously Karen.
(Apologies to any Karens out there who aren't like this.)


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## Julia9054 (23 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> If medical advice means you CANNOT get most kids back in _before_ the summer break, is there any appetite for starting the "September" turn early? (most kids will have had far more than 6 weeks off anyway)


Tricky from a logistics - and possibly a legal - perspective. 
Assuming some sort of freedom of travel has returned, families and staff may have holidays booked. I have a holiday booked in August. Could my workplace compel me to cancel it? Who reimburses me financially?


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## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

Most of the talk i'm hearing is blind panic less time for training the parrots less time in sausage factory also means god forbid kids actually start learning things in ways that they find interesting and enjoy. Much of what passers for learning in our current education set up is way off the mark. The current shutdown is a big chance to totally rethink our school set up.


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## Julia9054 (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> kids actually start learning things in ways that they find interesting and enjoy.


Some are doing this. Particularly those who live in supportive families, have access to resources and who are not stressed by lack of space, food or money.
Many are floundering without the safe structure of school providing routine in their lives. 
My academic students who are resilient, independent learners are doing well. As they do under any system. 
Others are really struggling.


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## Edwardoka (23 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Some are doing this. Particularly those who live in supportive families, have access to resources and who are not stressed by lack of space, food or money.
> Many are floundering without the safe structure of school providing routine in their lives.
> My academic students who are resilient, independent learners are doing well. As they do under any system.
> Others are really struggling.


Old teacher of mine (I couldn't tell you which subject. Social studies?) used to say "the smart people are working, the lunatic fringe are struggling"
I was never quite sure which group I was meant to be in (until I got my exam results)


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## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Some are doing this. Particularly those who live in supportive families, have access to resources and who are not stressed by lack of space, food or money.
> Many are floundering without the safe structure of school providing routine in their lives.
> My academic students who are resilient, independent learners are doing well. As they do under any system.
> Others are really struggling.


 
Ones with money will be just fine as they always are and will still come out on top, the ones in the middle will just plod along and bulk out the league tables. As for the rest I know they are struggling I'm really worried about mine at the moment many of the most in need have just been lost in all this. So much of my time is spent trying to keep them in a system that as soon as I get them in front door they can't wait to boot them out the back one. After this is over so much of what we thought before together with social attitudes look set to be questioned.
I can't see why we can't add education to the mix.


----------



## PK99 (23 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> The day before yesterday I saw someone someone from the WHO say that social distancing would be with us for the foreseeable future. Then yesterday Whitty parrots the exact same phrase at the briefing. Am I the only one who thinks Whitty seems a waste of space.



I think you need to watch this:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=rn55z95L1h8&feature=emb_logo


----------



## mjr (23 Apr 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> What a thoroughly annoying woman. I thought exercise was limited to 1 hour anyway, but the rules seem to have changed.


No, the rules have not changed, despite all the morons who keep bleating about 1 hour in the hope that they can vigilante-talk it into being a rule and ignoring that Gove prefaced it by saying it depends on how much exercise someone usually does!

And yes, she was rather annoying and talked herself into trouble. Daffodil.



Beebo said:


> She’s so confident that she is correct that she has posted the video herself.


The one linked by @ozboz was not posted by her, unless she's called Adam. I guess she uploaded it somewhere, but maybe wasn't expecting it to become public.


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## mjr (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Whitty is the CMO he's not the government he and the rest can only give advice they don't make things happen governments do.


I think management of the pandemic should have been handed over to a Royal Commission and the politicians basically shut the fark up and get on with enabling stuff instead of preening their feathers at lecterns in wood-panelled rooms.

On that note, here's a couple of snippets from today's Belgian rtbf news: a chart showing a draft plan for relaxing lockdown while still managing the outbreak (from a 10-expert commission including no politicians, which is the note) and production has started of a T-shirt featuring a quote and portrait of Marius Gilbert (no relation to Phillip AFAIK), one of their rock star virus experts: "we'll have to invent a new way of life"


----------



## mjr (23 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> I was talking to someone working in a school yesterday. Once the next 3 week lockdown was announced they had an increase in people sending children into the school because they were going back to work and were classed as key workers.


Perhaps they've stayed away as long as they felt they could, trying to spare their children and the schools, but now feel they must return to work?

I thought the traffic levels graph was still fairly flat this week, about 40% of pre-lockdown motor traffic? It's 6pm and in the last minute, the motor traffic on the A10 has comprised one food delivery van, two other vans, a pick-up and an unbranded lorry. It's really really quiet here. ETA: It's been posted to https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/d...topped-cycling-completely.258916/post-5967846 and discussed.


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## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

Next door just had a friendly visit from the police about infringement of the current rules.


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## kingrollo (23 Apr 2020)

Must say it's very noble of self employed bro continue working throughout this. Tree surgeons, bricklayers, painters - to think they could sit at home and 80% funded , for doing nowt very noble indeed...


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## kingrollo (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Next door just had a friendly visit from the police about infringement of the current rules.


Should have shot the bstrd !


----------



## vickster (23 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Must say it's very noble of self employed bro continue working throughout this. Tree surgeons, bricklayers, painters - to think they could sit at home and 80% funded , for doing nowt very noble indeed...


Only get 2.5k a month though and assuming not making 50K profit


----------



## lane (23 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Perhaps they've stayed away as long as they felt they could, trying to spare their children and the schools, but now feel they must return to work?
> 
> I thought the traffic levels graph was still fairly flat this week, about 40% of pre-lockdown motor traffic? It's 6pm and in the last minute, the motor traffic on the A10 has comprised one food delivery van, two other vans, a pick-up and an unbranded lorry. It's really really quiet here. ETA: It's been posted to https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/d...topped-cycling-completely.258916/post-5967846 and discussed.



Yes that is exactly what the person I spoke to thought stayed away as long as they could.


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## kingrollo (23 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Only get 2.5k a month though and assuming not making 50K profit


Only £2.5k - how the other half lives !!!


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## vickster (23 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Only £2.5k - how the other half lives !!!


Taxed and no benefits, holiday, pensions....


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## lane (23 Apr 2020)

Had to pop out today - I would say definitely more cars about than a couple of weeks ago quite noticeable


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## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Should have shot the bstrd !



Well that's the thing not that it's right in any way but the ones who got a visit have only had number 2 daughter call round once. 
It's the ones at the other side who are real pro's at taking the pee.


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## kingrollo (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Well that's the thing not that it's right in any way but the ones who got a visit have only had number 2 daughter call round once.
> It's the ones at the other side who are real pro's at taking the pee.


Reputation is everything !


----------



## Adam4868 (23 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Must say it's very noble of self employed bro continue working throughout this. Tree surgeons, bricklayers, painters - to think they could sit at home and 80% funded , for doing nowt very noble indeed...


Maybe not every tree surgeon,bricklayer,painter etc can afford to sit at home and wait...I know I couldn't and have been working when I can.Why do people allways presume the self employed are earning xxx amount,not paying their taxes,working when they don't need to ?


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## kingrollo (23 Apr 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Maybe not every tree surgeon,bricklayer,painter etc can afford to sit at home and wait...I know I couldn't and have been working when I can.Why do people allways presume the self employed are earning xxx amount,not paying their taxes,working when they don't need to ?


I can't think why people think that - tiz a puzzle.


----------



## Adam4868 (23 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I can't think why people think that - tiz a puzzle.


A puzzle or maybe bollox ?


----------



## Pat "5mph" (23 Apr 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Yes. I’ve noticed a gradual increase in traffic and movement of people. I can‘t see the British public abiding by strict measures for much longer.


In my area (small Burgh at the outskirts of Glasgow) there has never been strict adherence.
Major supermarkets have managed to implement social distancing really late into the pandemic, and, still, it's impossible to make their own staff keep the 2 metres from each other.
Small shops that should have shut never did.
The vulnerable are still out and about: their own choice, help is offered, but they want to go to the shops ... for fresh air (!)
I lost my job ( catering outlet), I do voluntary work at the moment, helping the vulnerable, but some of the vulnerable don't want to be helped - actually, quite a few!
I know several that, in spite of having family help, go out every day, zimmer and all


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## mjr (23 Apr 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> A puzzle or maybe bollox ?


Envy?

People may have missed that gov't will start contacting eligible self-employed people mid-May. And that's only start. AFAIK there's no eligibility certificate system online, so doesn't that mean if in doubt, keep working until contacted if you can? Bills still have to be paid. ETA https://www.gov.uk/guidance/claim-a...ovid-19-self-employment-income-support-scheme


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## Adam4868 (23 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Envy?
> 
> People may have missed that gov't will start contacting eligible self-employed people mid-May. And that's only start. AFAIK there's no eligibility certificate system online, so doesn't that mean if in doubt, keep working until contacted if you can?


It means work whenever you can,what's the alternative ? Look after yourself until they decide to pay you...no can do.Like I say I'm lucky enough to have had a few jobs,maybe 5/6 days work in total.Morgage put on hold and feck the bills,council tax they can wait.
Back to six cans and homes under the hammer tommorow.


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## gavroche (23 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Only get 2.5k a month though and assuming not making 50K profit


ONLY ??? I live on a lot less than that and don't complain.


----------



## vickster (23 Apr 2020)

gavroche said:


> ONLY ??? I live on a lot less than that and don't complain.


Do you work full time? Paid holidays? Pension contributions? Sick pay?
And aren’t you retired?

Who was complaining?


----------



## Andy in Germany (23 Apr 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> In my area (small Burgh at the outskirts of Glasgow) there has never been strict adherence.
> Major supermarkets have managed to implement social distancing really late into the pandemic, and, still, it's impossible to make their own staff keep the 2 metres from each other.
> Small shops that should have shut never did.
> The vulnerable are still out and about: their own choice, help is offered, but they want to go to the shops ... for fresh air (!)
> ...



I see the problem, but the other side of this is the Psychological health: I can imagine some people will end up so stressed and/or depressed staying in that it feels like catch 22: Go out any you may die, stay in and you probably want to...


----------



## mjr (23 Apr 2020)

gavroche said:


> ONLY ??? I live on a lot less than that and don't complain.


That's the maximum. Most will get 80% of their average over the last 3 tax years, so recent seed-funded start-ups and expansions are farked.


----------



## randynewmanscat (23 Apr 2020)

stowie said:


> Brazil government operates on a similar system to the US. The states have a lot of power to manage their affairs, including health emergencies.
> 
> Most governors in Brazil have ignored Bolsonaro, in the same way most US states have ignored Trump.
> 
> ...



I appreciate your informed reply very much. I watch news from Brazil as an outsider with no friends living there so I enjoy a report from the street as it where. I think Bolsonaro is done for, at least I hope he is. It seems the military figures he installed barely talk to him and just work around him. I hope he becomes isolated, it is who comes after that is more important.


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## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

The posh knobs in Harrogate must have gone ape. First they had all them cyclists and all the common people daring to use The Stray , a public space. Now to provide support for the NHS the RAF have gone and parked a Chinook all over it. 
The head of blue rinse brigade must will have totally blown her top.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> The posh knobs in Harrogate must have gone ape. First they had all them cyclists and all the common people daring to use The Stray , a public space. Now to provide support for the NHS the RAF have gone and parked a Chinook all over it.
> The head of blue rinse brigade must will have totally blown her top.


And Betty's shut!


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## Julia9054 (23 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And Betty's shut!


Thanks for that. 
Now all I want is a Betty's eccles cake.


----------



## Adam4868 (23 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> If you still think this whole thing is joke well you may have a chance to prove it.
> Los Vegas Mayor offers the city to be a control group.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1253041723510587394?s=21



How did Eddie Izzard end up in Las Vegas ?


----------



## CanucksTraveller (23 Apr 2020)

This "clapping the NHS" (but LOOK AT ME) has to be toned down in my view, footage on Look East tonight showed a convoy of police going with blues and twos along the front of the Luton and Dunstable hospital while crowds whooped and cheered. farks sake. Why are the police the cheerleaders for the NHS all of a sudden, as seen on Westminster Bridge a few days back, rather than doing their job of getting people to stay home? Why are firefighters doing TV photocalls with all the kit on and the lights flashing outside some A+E every Thursday instead of just staying at their own door and clapping? Why have RAF Scampton lined up all the red arrows jets and got all the pilots precisely 2.0 metres apart in formation to clap, instead of STAYING HOME and clapping from there? 

Dibble, Trumpton, Red Arrows: This isn't about you. Let people clap from their front door if they want. We don't need your fire engines parked at the hospital with your sirens going, we don't need your photo calls. Take a back seat and make it less about you, yes?


----------



## tom73 (23 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And Betty's shut!


I know all the ladies that lunch will have to slum it with some mother pride and potted dog on some park bench with the other middle class winos


----------



## mjr (24 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Thanks for that.
> Now all I want is a Betty's eccles cake.


There's nothing wrong with Eccles cakes that couldn't be fixed by  making them oval, more lemony and with a dash of rum  

How did the more boring cake get to be the famous one?


----------



## ozboz (24 Apr 2020)

I’m happy that CCers had the same thoughts as me regarding that woman in the YT video I posted , but believe it or not some on the local website where I initially saw it were defending her and others condemning the Cops ! It was said she is from Hounslow area about 6 miles away from Richmond Bridge , so must have travelled on public transport as she was boozing , hopefully she will get the book thrown at her for not accepting the FPN but I’m not sure how the law works . any a proper ar**e .


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## mjr (24 Apr 2020)

ozboz said:


> about 6 miles away from Richmond Bridge , so must have travelled on public transport as she was boozing


I understand people sometimes drive despite boozing 

Or it's not unknown for people in drink to walk for hours.


----------



## ozboz (24 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> I understand people sometimes drive despite boozing
> 
> Or it's not unknown for people in drink to walk for hours.


She may have walked in earlier but as for a woman walking home alone after dark , I wouldn’t have thought so ,


----------



## Edwardoka (24 Apr 2020)

2am squad checking in to let you know that the POTUS has advocated injecting oneself with disinfectant as a coronavirus cure.
He's basically doing Jonestown or Waco but on a population of 330 million.

Has there ever been a bigger waste of skin and oxygen than he?


----------



## flake99please (24 Apr 2020)

I don’t like needles. Should I gargle with it instead?

The Trump is a liability FFS


----------



## Edwardoka (24 Apr 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/Daniel_Lewis3/status/1253482576699969537


That is quite the spectrum of emotions playing across her face.
The only moral thing to do, right there, right then, was to stand up and say loud enough that the mics and press could hear "Mr President, no, that is dangerous madness, you need to be more careful" or something equally strong.

She'll doubtless come out and condemn it after she gets kicked to the curb the way all his past acolytes have.
The damage is done. America is a failed state.


----------



## screenman (24 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Lockdown is obviously over in Peterborough
> 
> Cycling home from one side of the city to the other from work I've noticed a big difference this week.
> Yes it's been sunny but it seems people have decided to ignore the rules.
> ...



Just seen local paper headlines for Sleaford, Couplands (bakers) reopening as things return to normal. Seaford has been often in the news as people there are ignoring lockdown.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

It's becoming clear that we are in danger totally blowing it and forcing the issue. 
Companies and the rest jumping the gun and closing things down before official notice. Is one thing but the small trend of companies now slowly reopening and finding ways to be classed as essential. Is quite another jumping the gun now is a total gamble it's just going to begin normalising stuff. We are not out the woods yet CMO has made that clear the press need to stop with we've peaked and open things up now crap. It's very possible that a 2rd wave will be even worse. The virus has not gone away and won't be for some time to come all we have done is slow it down. If the current trends pick up any real momentum than more restrictions will be needed not less.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

Won't name source - but someone who works for the police told me that the police have been told to go very light on people breaking the lockdown - especially business.

His theory is the number of non compliant people / business is to be used in part to end the lockdown ...as in "it wasn't be observed anyway"


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (24 Apr 2020)

Super-spin from this morning. It's now a good thing he's missed his testing target...

Speaking on BBC Breakfast, he said: “Not as many people have been coming for (a test) as we had expected.​
“Of course that was a problem but its a good problem because it means we’ve been able to expand who can get a test faster than we had planned.”​(Guardian, live feed.)​


----------



## Electric_Andy (24 Apr 2020)

I could not believe what Trump said. Even having heard what sort of stupid stuff he's said in the past. I just hope no easily swayed folk start taking bleach tablets or inserting UV lights into themselves


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I could not believe what Trump said. Even having heard what sort of stupid stuff he's said in the past. I just hope no easily swayed folk start taking bleach tablets or inserting UV lights into themselves



If he gets re elected after all this it will say a lot about the USA.


----------



## Andy in Germany (24 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Super-spin from this morning. It's now a good thing he's missed his testing target...
> 
> Speaking on BBC Breakfast, he said: “Not as many people have been coming for (a test) as we had expected.​
> “Of course that was a problem but its a good problem because it means we’ve been able to expand who can get a test faster than we had planned.”​(Guardian, live feed.)​



That's on a par with "We didn't get the email..."


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

I am definitely getting the feeling in various ways there is bit of a drift towards more stuff happening since the lockdown was extended


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

screenman said:


> Just seen local paper headlines for Sleaford, Couplands (bakers) reopening as things return to normal. Seaford has been often in the news as people there are ignoring lockdown.



Have relatives who live very close to Sleaford. Early on in the lockdown drove through the town and was amazed it didn't look like anything had changed.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

Reports for local farmers are not encouraging they are seeing people out walking though fields with fully loaded bag backs. 
People out having picnics , sunbathing in the middle of fields one even had to stop a family who's dad was trying get a double buggy over a gate. One stopped someone out and about feeding horses with naan breads.
If we blow this now the NHS will not cope the extra capacity we have will quickly fill and the death toll up to now will look like a bit of a blip.


----------



## marinyork (24 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Super-spin from this morning. It's now a good thing he's missed his testing target...
> 
> Speaking on BBC Breakfast, he said: “Not as many people have been coming for (a test) as we had expected.​
> “Of course that was a problem but its a good problem because it means we’ve been able to expand who can get a test faster than we had planned.”​(Guardian, live feed.)​



Different perspective but I think it's lockdown spin. The government are 'on the case', so we can consider making changes and 'keep the economy going'. A lot of the testing is along the lines of testing of essential workers - where essential workers has a very broad meaning.

As someone who is trying to shield two people, it may make a difference to satisfaction levels/how people feel that a test is available. As my father has been definitively ruled out from having had the virus through 2xPCR tests and sets of serological tests, I've felt quite a bit different about it.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Super-spin from this morning. It's now a good thing he's missed his testing target...
> 
> Speaking on BBC Breakfast, he said: “Not as many people have been coming for (a test) as we had expected.​
> “Of course that was a problem but its a good problem because it means we’ve been able to expand who can get a test faster than we had planned.”​(Guardian, live feed.)​



He came out with the same crap last week at the H&SC select committee. The clever thing to do is find out why but then again no-one even asking the question. Finding a test is hard enough that's if you get past hoops you need to go though 1st.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I could not believe what Trump said. Even having heard what sort of stupid stuff he's said in the past. I just hope no easily swayed folk start taking bleach tablets or inserting UV lights into themselves


He s right - it's just the selection criteria that needs to be eastablished. You get I'll with the virus - we inject you with disenfectant - you die - problem solved.
It's brilliant.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (24 Apr 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I could not believe what Trump said. Even having heard what sort of stupid stuff he's said in the past. I just hope no easily swayed folk start taking bleach tablets or inserting UV lights into themselves


Is Trump trying to kill off his supporters? First he encourages them to attend mass rallies and then suggests that they expose themselves to UV.
This will not end well.


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> He s right - it's just the selection criteria that needs to be eastablished. You get I'll with the virus - we inject you with disenfectant - you die - problem solved.
> It's brilliant.



Selection criteria could be anyone stupid enough to believe Trump!


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

Anyone have a clue of a reliable source of information on just what our total testing capacity is ? 
inc all PHE labs, hospital labs and all the many small labs now signing up to help out. 
The testing numbers just sound all pie in sky numbers with no real idea of what we really can achieve. 
Being thrown about by government, MP's,press and the media as some sort of prize for the best / worse numbers


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's becoming clear that we are in danger totally blowing it and forcing the issue.
> Companies and the rest jumping the gun and closing things down before official notice. Is one thing but the small trend of companies now slowly reopening and finding ways to be classed as essential. Is quite another jumping the gun now is a total gamble it's just going to begin normalising stuff. We are not out the woods yet CMO has made that clear the press need to stop with we've peaked and open things up now crap. It's very possible that a 2rd wave will be even worse. The virus has not gone away and won't be for some time to come all we have done is slow it down. If the current trends pick up any real momentum than more restrictions will be needed not less.



On the other hand just be to collect something in the village where I live. Nearly every drive has one, mostly two cars parked on it. That is not normal on a workday.


----------



## matticus (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> If he gets re elected after all this it will say a lot about the USA.


very true. "we get the government we deserve" as they say.

The mass protests (against lockdown) over there aren't entirely due to Trump's rabble-rousing - I believe they would have turned out anyway.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Selection criteria could be anyone stupid enough to believe Trump!


They'll be buying shares in Mar a Lago Disinjectant next.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> He s right - it's just the selection criteria that needs to be eastablished. You get I'll with the virus - we inject you with disenfectant - you die - problem solved.
> It's brilliant.



You've missed out a few bit's 
Some states are now opening up hair dressers , nail bars, and even tattoo placers. So you may die but at least you can look nice and have the undertaker think oh nice tattoo.


----------



## icowden (24 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> He came out with the same crap last week at the H&SC select committee. The clever thing to do is find out why but then again no-one even asking the question. Finding a test is hard enough that's if you get past hoops you need to go though 1st.



Agreed. It's not like there has been a public information roll out "your local testing centre is here - come for a test". Yesterday was the first information saying that keyworkers and their families could be tested, but it still isn't that clear how to access.

I found a link on Sky news to the government website:-



> *Coronavirus test: applications closed*
> You can’t currently register for a COVID-19 test. Please check back here later.
> 
> If you need any information and advice on COVID-19, read our pages on coronavirus.


----------



## marinyork (24 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone have a clue of a reliable source of information on just what our total testing capacity is ?
> inc all PHE labs, hospital labs and all the many small labs now signing up to help out.
> The testing numbers just sound all pie in sky numbers with no real idea of what we really can achieve.
> Being thrown about by government, MP's,press and the media as some sort of prize for the best / worse numbers



Three lots of figures being mixed up, by Hancock, perhaps deliberately.

I don't have currently reliable sources, although if you take what the government says itself at other times, that seems accurate enough.

The current old fashioned professional nose sticker uppers capacity seems to be around 40,000. The two biobanks scheduled to opening/getting their arse in gear (Milton Keynes too a long time) etc will add another 36,000-50,000. This is what Hancock's talking about along with a few other labs.

The ONS study is 300,000 people per week by mostly small labs.

The essential workers kits seem to be being done by various small labs not in current capacity. The essential workers drive throughs and the place will be the all the drop off points which is being expanded (a lot of concern here on a dearth in the east of the country). It's unclear from what Valance said ages ago whether some of these will have more mobile/PCR set ups run by pros hiding out in tents/cabins on site. I have a cynical suspicion that the DIY nose kits will be sent to the three biobank sites whilst capacity continues to be unused though! And then in two week's time hancock is asked this and says well that's what was planned all along.

All of that seems plausible numbers wise when you tot it up. The concern there is for me you'll get very differential take up by job/sector.

From a practical point of view we're likely past the peak of wave-1. It's kind of too late for that. The use of this is it'll interact with wave-2. It's also too little for how broad 'essential workers' is defined.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> On the other hand just be to collect something in the village where I live. Nearly every drive has one, mostly two cars parked on it. That is not normal on a workday.



Well maybe so but the posh end round here was like you say was all cars all parked up working from home.But not anymore it's like any normal day now. Things are slipping maybe slowly maybe in small area of the county but it's moving.


----------



## mjr (24 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> 2am squad checking in to let you know that the POTUS has advocated injecting oneself with disinfectant as a coronavirus cure.
> He's basically doing Jonestown or Waco but on a population of 330 million.
> 
> Has there ever been a bigger waste of skin and oxygen than he?


Bizarrely not reported on some USA news sites but it's on https://www.thejournal.ie/trump-disinfectant-covid-19-sunlight-5082830-Apr2020/


----------



## matticus (24 Apr 2020)

I can unreservedly recommend Tim Hartord's programme More-or-less https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd/episodes/player
I've learned something important and interesting every time I listen.
(last night's fun fact: birds sing louder when their environment gets noisier - and they've got quieter in the recent reduced traffic levels!)


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Three lots of figures being mixed up, by Hancock, perhaps deliberately.
> 
> I don't have currently reliable sources, although if you take what the government says itself at other times, that seems accurate enough.
> 
> ...



Right thanks for that. 
So we may well have labs space but not a hope of using it as We've got the labs but you can't have a test. 
All so Hancock and co can say look how great this is. we told you we'd have all these tests and look how clear we are we've even more space left over. 

Do we have any reliable number of test centre capacity ? Or any real idea if we have them in the right placers ? 
The mobile testing set up's sound like way too late to me that should have been set up on day one. 
The whole thing is just a total mess from start to finish. We don't have a hope of getting anything remotely looking joined up if they stick to it will be fine thinking. It's like a joe bloggs version of the PPE screw up.


----------



## PeteXXX (24 Apr 2020)

I checked on the gov.uk site about getting checked as I'm a Key Worker, as per announcement yesterday. All I managed to get to was the 'Yes, but only if you are self isolating' page. 
This was between 08.00 & 09.30.
Has it been updated (and overwhelmed) since then, or did I misunderstand the announcement? 
Incidentally, Sky News link also directed me towards the possibly out of date link.


----------



## mjr (24 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone have a clue of a reliable source of information on just what our total testing capacity is ?


I don't know, but I have noticed that negative tests are conspicuously missing from the stacked bar chart of testing they keep showing at briefings. Putting that and "unused tests" on that would be a start at getting a useful picture.


----------



## byegad (24 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone have a clue of a reliable source of information on just what our total testing capacity is ?
> inc all PHE labs, hospital labs and all the many small labs now signing up to help out.
> The testing numbers just sound all pie in sky numbers with no real idea of what we really can achieve.
> Being thrown about by government, MP's,press and the media as some sort of prize for the best / worse numbers



I suspect that they've been stockpiling testing kits in order to use all of them on the 30th, to 'prove' that they got to 100 000 tests in a day. If I'm right you will see a slump in tests conducted well into May.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> I checked on the gov.uk site about getting checked as I'm a Key Worker, as per announcement yesterday. All I managed to get to was the 'Yes, but only if you are self isolating' page.
> This was between 08.00 & 09.30.
> Has it been updated (and overwhelmed) since then, or did I misunderstand the announcement?
> Incidentally, Sky News link also directed me towards the possibly out of date link.



No your right expect that it's now not working at all.


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## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

Hancocks 5 pillars of testing look to be
1 we are committed to more tests
2 we are committed to more tests
3 we are committed to more tests
4 Can I have a test ..... No 
5 Why not ...... We never said you'd be able to get one , all we ever said was..... we are committed to more tests.


----------



## PeteXXX (24 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> No your right expect that it's now not working at all.


My company has told us that they will give me/us the opportunity to be tested at the earliest opportunity, whenever that might be. Meanwhile, I'll carry on with my job, slathered in antibac..


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> My company has told us that they will give me/us the opportunity to be tested at the earliest opportunity, whenever that might be. Meanwhile, I'll carry on with my job, slathered in antibac..


Sounds like your boss is call Matt


----------



## marinyork (24 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Right thanks for that.
> So we may well have labs space but not a hope of using it as We've got the labs but you can't have a test.
> All so Hancock and co can say look how great this is. we told you we'd have all these tests and look how clear we are we've even more space left over.
> 
> ...



Well I know on some of the locally on news and otherwise I've seen a lot of frustrated comments from care home workers. There's been a survey saying care workers can't access it, among other reasons because they aren't mobile, they can't drive to x. On the other hand there are other essential workers that are highly mobile and this in theory would be a doddle. 

The sources for Milton Keynes Biosample capacity/existence are:-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/swab-tester-uk-germany-south-korea
Sky news tv reports
Sky news reports on-line https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-isnt-the-uk-using-its-full-testing-capacity-11977115
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...tre-only-conducting-1500-tests-a-day-11971991

Not heard much about Cheshire and Glasgow supercentres like Milton Keynes recently. Maybe they are having the same kind of issues Milton Keynes had.

What I'd want would be a reliable number for the number of essential workers and broken down by category, so the media and public can scrutinise the policy ahead of the on-line scrum to get tested. How many care workers, truck drivers, how many ICU workers, how many other medical and allied professionals in hospitals, how many others in hospitals such as cleaners and porters, GPs, support workers, teachers, police, fire and many other categories. I do want people tested, but I can just see it being a chaotic scrum. 

We have talked on here about schools with September talked about as a date. Would it be realistic say in August to plan in place now to run serological tests on every single teacher in the country in the last two weeks of August, those that haven't had the virus noted and plans around that. Would it be possible to swab every single teacher the week before school etc. Prisons probably a lot more pressing at the moment.


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> You've missed out a few bit's
> Some states are now opening up hair dressers , nail bars, and even tattoo placers. So you may die but at least you can look nice and have the undertaker think oh nice tattoo.



Yep saw the Governor of (I think Georgia). In addition he also mentioned body piercing shops , bowling alleys and gyms.


----------



## PeteXXX (24 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sounds like your boss is call Matt


David, actually, but it might be his middle name..


----------



## marinyork (24 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> I see the problem, but the other side of this is the Psychological health: I can imagine some people will end up so stressed and/or depressed staying in that it feels like catch 22: Go out any you may die, stay in and you probably want to...



Mental health stuff isn't really being given any kind of serious thought here at the moment. After this week I'm much less optimistic anything meaningful will be done. I think we're heading for a big mental health crisis that'll start to become more obvious about 3-4 week's time, irrespective of the state of things or death rates etc. A lot of the 1-peakers, which includes a fair number of people with mental health problems will realise that 'normal' life and 'support' are gone and that the authorities have not got any kind of plan to help other than making sure they are fed with 1970s protect and survive packs with angel delight mix in. Scary stuff.

Locally the trusts have little idea how 'service users' are doing and are asking (which is unusual) how are people doing. This is great as potentially allows for an avenue out. The darker side of that is there seems to be a lot of confirmation bias going on to me. That the dominant discourse on this is that people are doing surprisingly 'well'. That people are content at having minimalist support over the telephone. This is mostly a complete reversal of reality to what I see out there. I think also as in physical health where people aren't visiting A&E and other medical help, that for mental health help people are not seeking it out, that there's an expectation that everything is closed and that they'd feel guilty for wasting people's time and a fear of being judged for doing so. The blitz spirit dialogue seems to be very dominant among professional job types living in leafy suburbs and villages and assuming it must be broadly the same in poor areas or even in neighbours they aren't seeing.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

Sadly your right everything except a few have closed for the duration. The message that some services are still running is not getting though to ones who need it which needs to be fixed quickly. 
All the talk of unlocking in the press, government and most peoples mindset is all about shopping and the material stuff which really don't matter. It would save a lot of money, time and yes lives if unlocking moved away from normal stuff 1st and to found ways to open up much needed support services. But then long before all this mental health has mostly been a footnote for most or worse still the next celebrity must have. The mental health impact of all this will be much bigger than the economic one and will last a lot longer. 
We had a mental health time bomb before all this lord knows what will end up with once we do open things up.


----------



## johnblack (24 Apr 2020)

Sky News Poll, shows an interesting reponse among the general public that may not correlate with the views expressed in the CC world.


----------



## Julia9054 (24 Apr 2020)

Well it turns out that the Harrogate Nightingale has now postponed taking patients indefinitely so my son has lost his job. Some porters and domestics being transferred to Airedale and LGI but not a goer for my son as he doesn't drive. 
We will be having a bbq tonight to celebrate the shortest career in history. Newbie cleaner, promoted to domestic supervisor and then out of work all within the space of 3 weeks!


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Selection criteria could be anyone stupid enough to believe Trump!


or in the uk anyone receiving state benefits !!!


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

I think the mass testing only appropriate as part of contact tracing.
If I have a test today and its negative - does that mean I am OK to go to work Monday ? 
If I test Monday and have to wait 48 hrs for the results - I could have got infected by the time the results come back


----------



## midlife (24 Apr 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> My company has told us that they will give me/us the opportunity to be tested at the earliest opportunity, whenever that might be. Meanwhile, I'll carry on with my job, slathered in antibac..



I thought you could only book a test if you / family member had virus symptoms ? Site has crashed because of demand apparently....


----------



## marinyork (24 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sadly your right everything except a few have closed for the duration. The message that some services are still running is not getting though to ones who need it which needs to be fixed quickly.
> All the talk of unlocking in the press, government and most peoples mindset is all about shopping and the material stuff which really don't matter. It would save a lot of money, time and yes lives if unlocking moved away from normal stuff 1st and to found ways to open up much needed support services. But then long before all this mental health has mostly been a footnote for most or worse still the next celebrity must have. The mental health impact of all this will be much bigger than the economic one and will last a lot longer.
> We had a mental health time bomb before all this lord knows what will end up with once we do open things up.



The communication side of things was one of the concerns I had this week. A new model of 'stepped care' floated out of somewhere where 'hubs' communicate help and somehow communicate and convince people to take up and usher people onto what they need and what form/actually remains of secondary care. Of places still running services, with the specific exception of domestic violence and alcohol support, I've seen information that suggests large reductions in people seeking help - communication or what I called it being expectation that everything is closed, probably being a big one. Demand in six month's time was also an interesting one as information on that down on paper saying people expect a large increase in demand by then.

Reactivity is another one. The people planning out this stuff do realise how long it'll go on for, but things might change quickly. I think stuff planned will get locked in and stay broadly the same.

Resilience of the system leads on from that.


----------



## marinyork (24 Apr 2020)

midlife said:


> I thought you could only book a test if you had virus symptoms ? Site has crashed because of demand apparently....



One way of reaching 100,000 tests by the end of April.


----------



## PeteXXX (24 Apr 2020)

midlife said:


> I thought you could only book a test if you had virus symptoms ? Site has crashed because of demand apparently....


My impression, wrong or right from yesterday's announcement, was that all Key Workers could be tested, irrespective of whether any infection has been suspected. 
I know the gov site was saying what you posted, though. If folk can't get on it, how do we know if that policy has changed?


----------



## marinyork (24 Apr 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> My impression, wrong or right from yesterday's announcement, was that all Key Workers could be tested, irrespective of whether any infection has been suspected.
> I know the gov site was saying what you posted, though. If folk can't get on it, how do we know if that policy has changed?



Yes this is correct. Some of the other commentary on the tele was unhelpful. 

Matt Hancock needs to get to 100,000 tests a day by the end of April. He needs to get around 60,000 out of ten million people to book at an appointment on any or as many days as possible by 29th April and the results for one day to be announced where we get 100,000.

Having testing capacity at 100 times lower than the daily capacity problem of who it's offered to is going to be a slight problem...


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> My impression, wrong or right from yesterday's announcement, was that all Key Workers could be tested, irrespective of whether any infection has been suspected.
> I know the gov site was saying what you posted, though. If folk can't get on it, how do we know if that policy has changed?


yes I think it has - its a bit like the headline "Stay Home" - with the fine print "unless you need to go to work" 

my understanding was that key workers displaying symptoms would be eligible for a test as would there families. But no symptoms - no test.


----------



## marinyork (24 Apr 2020)

> Downing Street said 5,000 home testing kits were ordered in the first two minutes of the website going live.
> 
> About 15,000 tests were booked to take place on Friday at drive-through sites.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52405852


----------



## mjr (24 Apr 2020)

johnblack said:


> Sky News Poll, shows an interesting reponse among the general public that may not correlate with the views expressed in the CC world.
> View attachment 517463


I think that would have pretty high correlation, with one notable exception.


----------



## mjr (24 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> All the talk of unlocking in the press, government and most peoples mindset is all about shopping and the material stuff which really don't matter.


I think most people's mindset on unlocking is about all the civil and social stuff that's stopped, all the ephemera that contributes to happiness and general wellbeing. After all, if you really need to, most shopping has continued, sometimes with a short break while they rearranged, either online or at the supermarkets and discounters-that-also-sell-some-food-and-hardware that have subverted the restrictions pretty much in order to grab market share.


----------



## Rocky (24 Apr 2020)

Covid doesn’t scare me.....I’ve got the cure. I’m just setting up a drip before taking my Dettol enema.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (24 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Covid doesn’t scare me.....I’ve got the cure. I’m just setting up a drip before taking my Dettol enema.
> 
> View attachment 517505


Have you started a surge of panic buying?


----------



## Rocky (24 Apr 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Have you started a surge of panic buying?


Yes!! And I’ve got shares in Domestos. So long may the panic buying last.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

Covid 19 detected in air pollution particles - very worrying if proved.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (24 Apr 2020)

The Guardian doesn't know what day it is any more....

''On Thuesday 1,027 tests were carried out with a total of 29,931 carried out across Wales. There is current capacity for 1,800 tests daily. ''


----------



## mjr (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Covid 19 detected in air pollution particles - very worrying if proved.


Why? It's long been suspected because it would explain some of the patterns, such as heavily industrialised areas being hit harder than denser populations, and it might mean governments finally take overdue action to improve the air that we breathe.


----------



## mjr (24 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The Guardian doesn't know what day it is any more....
> 
> ''On Thuesday 1,027 tests were carried out with a total of 29,931 carried out across Wales. There is current capacity for 1,800 tests daily. ''


Is today's guest editor Priti Patel?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (24 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Is today's guest editor Priti Patel?


No, she's booked for the twentyseventeenth.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Covid 19 detected in air pollution particles - very worrying if proved.


The theory is that the virus can cling onto particles suspended in the air and then enter the lungs.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Why? It's long been suspected because it would explain some of the patterns, such as heavily industrialised areas being hit harder than denser populations, and it might mean governments finally take overdue action to improve the air that we breathe.



You really the govt will take measures to improve the air quality - they will just tell cyclists to wear masks or cycle indoors.

My understanding of previous research was that people in industrial areas had poorer lungs - not the virus was effectively airborne.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> The theory is that the virus can cling onto particles suspended in the air and then enter the lungs.


Yep - where as previously it was thought city folk had poorer lungs to start with.


----------



## perplexed (24 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> No, she's booked for the twentyseventeenth.



Of when, I ponder? Septober, Octember or No-wonder?*



*apologies for mangling Laurel and Hardy...


----------



## marinyork (24 Apr 2020)

It's now being reported that the website for ordering nose testing kits will have capacity 'increased' in the next few days to 18,000 per day .


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Covid doesn’t scare me.....I’ve got the cure. I’m just setting up a drip before taking my Dettol enema.
> 
> View attachment 517505



You do know you're squirting it in the wrong end?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Well it turns out that the Harrogate Nightingale has now postponed taking patients indefinitely so my son has lost his job. Some porters and domestics being transferred to Airedale and LGI but not a goer for my son as he doesn't drive.
> We will be having a bbq tonight to celebrate the shortest career in history. Newbie cleaner, promoted to domestic supervisor and then out of work all within the space of 3 weeks!



They can furlough him!


----------



## Tanis8472 (24 Apr 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Acyn/status/1253448138813173760



YukonBoy said:


> You do know you're squirting it in the wrong end?


Never heard of anal bleaching ?

🤮


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Covid doesn’t scare me.....I’ve got the cure. I’m just setting up a drip before taking my Dettol enema.
> 
> View attachment 517505


Either that or your doing a remake of button moon.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (24 Apr 2020)

johnblack said:


> Sky News Poll, shows an interesting response among the general public that may not correlate with the views expressed in the CC world.
> View attachment 517463



The 4th Estate are an irrelevance as far as trusting in truth goes: I'm not sure if there is any acceptable alternative though; the flip side of free speech is that lies, half-truths and mischievous speculation are tolerated and indeed are grist to the mill for some people.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> or in the uk anyone receiving state benefits !!!



Nice.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

It's just worse Grant Shapps is going the briefing and he's got a new transport plan ... Oh what can possibly go wrong ?
Remind me what times the next train ?


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

The standard of press questions at the briefings has been crap since day one. 
Now some clown has just asked a question about Bexit


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

FFS - apparently no checks are made on the testing website on whether you are an essential worker or not.


----------



## mjr (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> FFS - apparently no checks are made on the testing website on whether you are an essential worker or not.


Source, please? An IT blooper from government is unbelievable


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

Yep it's a free for all and it's just been confirmed in public.


----------



## Julia9054 (24 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> They can furlough him!


I believe you have to have been working since before a certain date to be eligible. He has been employed (agency) for only 3 weeks


----------



## marinyork (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> FFS - apparently no checks are made on the testing website on whether you are an essential worker or not.



Probably doesn't make much difference. 10 million key workers. Apparently included families. Might be as much as a third or half the population.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I believe you have to have been working since before a certain date to be eligible. He has been employed (agency) for only 3 weeks


28th feb I think it is unless they've changed it a few things keep changing.


----------



## marinyork (24 Apr 2020)

Grant Shapps set up the website and then took credit for it at the press conference.


----------



## AndyRM (24 Apr 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/andlikelaura/status/1253666867761172480?s=19


----------



## glasgowcyclist (24 Apr 2020)

Neighbours have got relatives and their various kids around for a bbq party in the back garden. Twats.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Apr 2020)

Doctor‘s diary 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...ronavirus-dispatches-from-an-er-physician-in/


----------



## mjr (24 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Neighbours have got relatives and their various kids around for a bbq party in the back garden. Twats.


Type it into a police website not a cycling one.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Apr 2020)

Nailed it “Forest Trump”


----------



## vickster (24 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I believe you have to have been working since before a certain date to be eligible. He has been employed (agency) for only 3 weeks


Cut off date Changed to 19 March
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/furlough-scheme-cut-off-date-extended-to-19-march


----------



## Low Gear Guy (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> FFS - apparently no checks are made on the testing website on whether you are an essential worker or not.


The website was set up quickly and the government does not keep a list of essential workers. At a push they could restrict testing to NHS staff but this would miss out most others such as care home workers.


----------



## Julia9054 (24 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Cut off date Changed to 19 March
> https://www.gov.uk/government/news/furlough-scheme-cut-off-date-extended-to-19-march


Still not late enough for Nat unfortunately.
He is a final year music performance student. In normal times he would be making contacts, setting up projects and promoting himself in preparation for finishing his course. Unfortunately all of that is on hold so a couple of months of earning decent money would have meant that he would have been able to delay getting a job to pay his rent for a few months so he could concentrate on all that.
We live in strange times.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (24 Apr 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> The website was set up quickly and the government does not keep a list of essential workers. At a push they could restrict testing to NHS staff but this would miss out most others such as care home workers.


The concern would then be non essential panic testers depriving care home workers of their chance to get tested.


----------



## vickster (24 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Still not late enough for Nat unfortunately.
> He is a final year music performance student. In normal times he would be making contacts, setting up projects and promoting himself in preparation for finishing his course. Unfortunately all of that is on hold so a couple of months of earning decent money would have meant that he would have been able to delay getting a job to pay his rent for a few months so he could concentrate on all that.
> We live in strange times.


Is there any farm work maybe? 
Supermarket?
and a friend of mine says the NHS is crying out for IT support for home workers if he‘s got any experience?


----------



## Julia9054 (24 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Is there any farm work maybe?
> Supermarket?
> and a friend of mine says the NHS is crying out for IT support for home workers if he‘s got any experience?


His conservatoire carried on a little longer than most unis meaning he missed out on the supermarket panic recruitment! 
Farm work would be perfect for him - he is the strong outdoorsy type - except that he can't drive so getting to places would be a problem. 
Not sure IT would be his thing - unless music recording and editing is required! 
His main non-music experience is cleaning.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Is there any farm work maybe?
> Supermarket?
> and a friend of mine says the NHS is crying out for IT support for home workers if he‘s got any experience?


Well that's my job - and I'm not busy. Worryingly


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

Just come in from a walk. A lot more traffic about at 10pm on a Friday night than I have seen since the lockdown started. Really significant increase wonder where they are all going.


----------



## vickster (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well that's my job - and I'm not busy. Worryingly


Dunno. What she said. A large mental health trust


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

With the lockdown beginning to crumble - what about we all go back to normal but sing happy birthday whilst washing our hands ?


----------



## vickster (24 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> His conservatoire carried on a little longer than most unis meaning he missed out on the supermarket panic recruitment!
> Farm work would be perfect for him - he is the strong outdoorsy type - except that he can't drive so getting to places would be a problem.
> Not sure IT would be his thing - unless music recording and editing is required!
> His main non-music experience is cleaning.


I think some farm workers would live on site so he wouldn’t need to drive?
Maybe @mudsticks knows how it might work


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> With the lockdown beginning to crumble - what about we all go back to normal but sing happy birthday whilst washing our hands ?



In bleach


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> The website was set up quickly and the government does not keep a list of essential workers. At a push they could restrict testing to NHS staff but this would miss out most others such as care home workers.


Simple to sort out use official email address works for most other things. LA know the care homes they have in a given area so simple enough to issue a password or PIN number.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

B & Q opening has opened the flood gates. - mid may we will all be back at work , apart from pubs and restaurants imo.


----------



## vickster (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> B & Q opening has opened the flood gates. - mid may we will all be back at work , apart from pubs and restaurants imo.


A bit of an over reaction surely?!


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> With the lockdown beginning to crumble - what about we all go back to normal but sing happy birthday whilst washing our hands ?


Even in lockdown you still need to sing birthday as you wash your hands.


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> B & Q opening has opened the flood gates. - mid may we will all be back at work , apart from pubs and restaurants imo.



Schools won't go back until June 1st. B&Q opening a lot more stores. Local news brick maker back up an running so house building can start.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> B & Q opening has opened the flood gates. - mid may we will all be back at work , apart from pubs and restaurants imo.


And by early June the hospital beds will start to full and sadly the deaths will start to mount.


----------



## Julia9054 (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Schools won't go back until June 1st. B&Q opening a lot more stores. Local news brick maker back up an running so house building can start.


June 1st would do me. Trying to teach from home is doing my head in.


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> A bit of an over reaction surely?!


 Been out yesterday and today and noticed a significant increase in traffic others locally also commenting something's changed.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

Apparently River island is planning to open next week - Brothers daughter been asked to go in.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> A bit of an over reaction surely?!


.

Loads of people I have been speaking to have been contacted tonight about going back next week. ...


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

By the time we get to the next review date it will already be clear the lockdown is over.m


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> By the time we get to the next review date it will already be clear the lockdown is over.m


Yep - to much shrugging from Tory ministers !


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

A lot not the cabinet are reputed to be keen to get the lockdown finished. I think you can tell the difference with different ministers at the briefing.


----------



## mudsticks (24 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> I think some farm workers would live on site so he wouldn’t need to drive?
> Maybe @mudsticks knows how it might work



A lot of accomodation is on site in mobile home type billets. 

Which will make 'social distancing' etc tricky. 

Even if the person is very fit, and willing there is still a large amount of skill involved in crop harvesting. 

Although other field work is available. 
Pay will be at least minimum wage - the minimum legal requirement - with the chance to earn more once speed, and efficiency are achieved.. 

TThose 'unskilled' Europeans are anything but.. 

If the crop is harvested 'fast' but not of good enough quality for the grade, or is damaged then earnings will be less. 

I took part in a webinar discussing all this, particularly aimed at young people interested in land based careers, who are considering joining the 'land army' of seasonal pickers, this year while they're off Uni / furloughed 

My main message was - yes, go do it, find out how it is done, find out just how much exploitation of people, land, and ecology goes on to get 'cheap food' into the supermarkets. 

Then come away, resolved to build, and do things better


----------



## Unkraut (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> By the time we get to the next review date it will already be clear the lockdown is over.m


That wouldn't necessarily be a disaster, it depends on how far the infection rate has been reduced, and if the figure is a reasonably constant R = <1 then distancing and hygiene and masks might be enough to stop a second wave or general increase in infections - at least low enough to prevent overcrowding of hospitals. It's essential you don't get masses of people crowding together.


----------



## Julia9054 (24 Apr 2020)

mudsticks said:


> A lot of accomodation is on site in mobile home type billets.


Can’t see three hours a day horn practice working well with that!


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> That wouldn't necessarily be a disaster, it depends on how far the infection rate has been reduced, and if the figure is a reasonably constant R = <1 then distancing and hygiene and masks might be enough to stop a second wave or general increase in infections - at least low enough to prevent overcrowding of hospitals. It's essential you don't get masses of people crowding together.



You might be right. However if the situation isn't then conducive to ending the lockdown without a new wave it would probably be good to have the option of continuing for a while longer than it ending by default. Also not many scientists seem to think we can avoid a second a even third fourth waves.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> That wouldn't necessarily be a disaster, it depends on how far the infection rate has been reduced, and if the figure is a reasonably constant R = <1 then distancing and hygiene and masks might be enough to stop a second wave or general increase in infections - at least low enough to prevent overcrowding of hospitals. It's essential you don't get masses of people crowding together.



But yesterday we had Chris Whitty saying (or implying) we wouldn't be going back to normal anytime soon - 24 hrs later all are sundry seem to be going into work - it looks like another Stealthy move to me.


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

There are lots of variations on not going back to normal.


----------



## mudsticks (24 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Can’t see three hours a day horn practice working well with that!



Be an excellent bird scarer to keep the pigeons off the brassicas


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> You might be right. However if the situation isn't then conducive to ending the lockdown without a new wave it would probably be good to have the option of continuing for a while longer than it ending by default. Also not many scientists seem to think we can avoid a second a even third fourth waves.



Perhaps the British public have got used to people dying.


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Perhaps the British public have got used to people dying.



To some extent yes. And we still have capacity in the NHS as they keep telling us.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> There are lots of variations on not going back to normal.


Of course 

Be interesting to see where we are next week. Right now would you bet against pubs and restaurants being open in some form by June ?.....I wouldn't.


----------



## kingrollo (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> To some extent yes. And we still have capacity in the NHS as they keep telling us.



TBF the hospital I work at now has capacity and PPE - there was a period where it got very tight though.


----------



## Julia9054 (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> And we still have capacity in the NHS as they keep telling us.


Well Harrogate Coronavirus Hospital now not opening after all suggesting that Yorkshire and Humber hospitals currently have enough capacity


----------



## Low Gear Guy (24 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The concern would then be non essential panic testers depriving care home workers of their chance to get tested.


The government had a choice of doing it quickly or accurately. They chose the quick option. It would not matter if sufficient testing capacity was available.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

Basically we’ve got one change , the current situation to have any hope of slowing things to a level we can manage. The message from the CMO and today from DCMO made it quite clear now is not the time to ease off. It won’t take much for the virus to speed up again people really need to carful about what they ask for.


----------



## tom73 (24 Apr 2020)

We have capacity because we've mostly played by rules. But equally it’s due in part to the elephant in the room called planned Surgery. Once we open up beds to some planned surgery the bed numbers will soon change.


----------



## MarkF (24 Apr 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Well Harrogate Coronavirus Hospital now not opening after all suggesting that Yorkshire and Humber hospitals currently have enough capacity



I'd guess our hospital runs at about 90% capacity on any "normal" day. Right now, I'd guess it's running at 30-35% capacity and the extra ICU facilities and wards closed for the expected virus overflow have never been used at all. So far.


----------



## lane (24 Apr 2020)

According to the Telegraph business is being descretely advised to get back to work.


----------



## mudsticks (24 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> According to the Telegraph business is being descretely advised to get back to work.



Some of us never stopped. 

Turns out, people still need to eat, three times a day


----------



## mjr (24 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> B & Q opening has opened the flood gates. - mid may we will all be back at work , apart from pubs and restaurants imo.


B&Q here barely closed. Went click and collect within a day or two.


----------



## randynewmanscat (25 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> In bleach


No chance of bleach, shortage imminent after Trump promoted disinfectant type products as suitable for intravenous use.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (25 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Be interesting to see where we are next week. Right now would you bet against pubs and restaurants being open in some form by June ?.....I wouldn't.



The sooner the better. The experts and politicians can pontificate about avoiding second peaks and social distancing as much as they want but the bottom line is most people are getting pretty sick of the disruption and inconvenience of the lockdown, and compliance is clearly beginning to crumble, as rising road traffic shows.
The politicians have a clear choice; either they can fight a rearguard action to try and maintain an extended lockdown and alienate a lot of voters, or they can see the writing on the wall, play it smart and end it quickly, then claim the credit for not wrecking the economy too much.


----------



## slowmotion (25 Apr 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The sooner the better. The experts and politicians can pontificate about avoiding second peaks and social distancing as much as they want but the bottom line is most people are getting pretty sick of the disruption and inconvenience of the lockdown, and compliance is clearly beginning to crumble, as rising road traffic shows.
> The politicians have a clear choice; either they can fight a rearguard action to try and maintain an extended lockdown and alienate a lot of voters, or they can see the writing on the wall, play it smart and end it quickly, then claim the credit for not wrecking the economy too much.


They are in a very difficult position but nobody is going to thank them when the bodies start piling up if there's a big second peak. It's uncharted territory. I'm quite prepared to accept another couple of months of restrictions if that significantly reduces the overall death toll. The problem is that nobody has enough information to make an accurate decision. It's all guesses.


----------



## Edwardoka (25 Apr 2020)

It's not looking encouraging in South America. Although Ecuador's total confirmed cases doubling in a day is apparently due to them receiving an influx of testing equipment but they reckon the death toll is far higher than recorded, and it is already by far the highest deaths per million population in South America.

I've seen some images on social media of piles of bodies and bodies in wheelbarrows, their provenance is unknown, but it is extremely grim nonetheless.

Peru has had riots due to the strictness of their lockdown, and while these strict measures seem to have delayed the growth, the floodgates have opened over the past week.

Brazil has Trump-with-trees Bolsonaro. There can be no doubt that it will tear through the favelas and leave corpse mountains in its wake.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Apr 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The sooner the better. The experts and politicians can pontificate about avoiding second peaks and social distancing as much as they want but the bottom line is most people are getting pretty sick of the disruption and inconvenience of the lockdown, and compliance is clearly beginning to crumble, as rising road traffic shows.
> The politicians have a clear choice; either they can fight a rearguard action to try and maintain an extended lockdown and alienate a lot of voters, or they can see the writing on the wall, play it smart and end it quickly, then claim the credit for not wrecking the economy too much.



Not a self employed white van man by any chance are you ?


----------



## Edwardoka (25 Apr 2020)

Those clamouring for a return to normalcy are spreading unrest and in doing so are both hastening and worsening the second peak (I will eat my hat and those of anyone who wants to have their hat eaten if there isn't one).

We haven't even started to see any of the long-term effects of the virus. Fibrosis will figure heavily in the lives of those who were most afflicted who go on to make a recovery.

I have a cousin who has required oxygen for decades now. I only see her at funerals and she's gone from being active to needing a walker to needing a wheelchair because of her condition. She's not much older than me. Trust me when I say that that is far more inconvenient than not being able to go to the pub or restaurant.

The pandemic is not going away this year. The sooner that people accept that this *is *the new normal, the better they will cope.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Those clamouring for a return to normalcy are spreading unrest and in doing so are both hastening and worsening the second peak (I will eat my hat and those of anyone who wants to have their hat eaten if there isn't one).
> 
> We haven't even started to see any of the long-term effects of the virus. Fibrosis will figure heavily in the lives of those who were most afflicted who go on to make a recovery.
> 
> ...



Couldn't agree more. However I think the new normal is 700 people per day dying - but people going about their business just hoping it isn't them.
The govt know the lockdown is being breached by all and sundry - claiming to be working on ventilators or delivering medical equipment.

STAY HOME PROTECT THE NHS - but B + Q and River island are open !

The minister's aren't fools they know what's going on - they are saying one thing publicly - but then telling everyone on the QT ... business as usual.


----------



## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The concern would then be non essential panic testers depriving care home workers of their chance to get tested.



Completely. But the chance of getting 5000 kits out of 10 million plus people. It's ridiculous. They might as well do a lottery or restrict it just to care workers.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (25 Apr 2020)

There's a very noticeable increase in SE London traffic noise outside this morning.


----------



## Beebo (25 Apr 2020)

Yeah. Road traffic levels are definitely increasing. Why can’t people obey bloody runs.


----------



## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

Beebo said:


> Yeah. Road traffic levels are definitely increasing. Why can’t people obey bloody runs.



The papers and the media this morning are not great.

Although it isn't just footy. Snippets about pods and clusters.


----------



## tom73 (25 Apr 2020)

mudsticks said:


> Some of us never stopped.
> 
> Turns out, people still need to eat, three times a day


Out in the fields keeping people feed is vital work. Reopening Aston Martin car plant next week to make the latest model is not.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (25 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> However I think the new normal is 700 people per day dying - but people going about their business just hoping it isn't them.


Sadly, I agree with this.
Maybe people living in the London area will be more aware of the dangers of contagion, because they had so many deaths.
Here in Scotland people will just carry on as normal.
I can't see social distancing in shops happening when the good weather stops, are people going to queue round the block of Asda under the pouring rain?


----------



## Buck (25 Apr 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> My impression, wrong or right from yesterday's announcement, was that all Key Workers could be tested, irrespective of whether any infection has been suspected.
> I know the gov site was saying what you posted, though. If folk can't get on it, how do we know if that policy has changed?



Pete, they will only test you If you are symptomatic. Then, if it’s like the testing for NHS before, the key period is between days 2 and 5 of your symptoms appearing.


----------



## tom73 (25 Apr 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Sadly, I agree with this.
> Maybe people living in the London area will be more aware of the dangers of contagion, because they had so many deaths.
> Here in Scotland people will just carry on as normal.
> I can't see social distancing in shops happening when the good weather stops, are people going to queue round the block of Asda under the pouring rain?



Either that or being wheeled in to A&E by one door and then out the back one by the undertaker as they have no beds to even try and save you.


----------



## mudsticks (25 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Out in the fields keeping people feed is vital work. Reopening Aston Martin car plant next week to make the latest model is not.



Well rather unsurprisingly, I'd agree. 

But there are many who would say otherwise. 

Food just magically appears in the fridge, no one really knows, or cares how. 

But the latest Aston Martin ?? 
Well now, we're talking really important stuff.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (25 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Either that or being wheeled in to A&E by one door and then out the back one by the undertaker as they have no beds to even try and save you.


We still have the whole of the exhibition centre empty, about 4000 beds afaik.
Maybe when this is full, people will start to pay attention.
But, tbh, I think it hasn't hit close to home for most people here in the Glasgow area.


----------



## The Crofted Crest (25 Apr 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The experts and politicians can pontificate about avoiding second peaks and social distancing as much as they want but the bottom line is most people are getting pretty sick



Quite so.


----------



## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Those clamouring for a return to normalcy are spreading unrest and in doing so are both hastening and worsening the second peak (I will eat my hat and those of anyone who wants to have their hat eaten if there isn't one).
> 
> We haven't even started to see any of the long-term effects of the virus. Fibrosis will figure heavily in the lives of those who were most afflicted who go on to make a recovery.



There will be extremely long lasting effects of coronavirus psychologically and physically for a percentage of patients that leave ICU.

I don't think it's so much those clamouring for a return to normal that are causing the trouble, it's a lack of a change of tack in a clear message by the politicians and media which like the middle of march is needed now. There are a lot of 1-peakers out there and in the media.


----------



## flake99please (25 Apr 2020)

Screening of staff (whatever that involves) and the wearing of face masks will become mandatory from the 27th April for all Costco employees. Finally they’re starting to take things more seriously.


----------



## tom73 (25 Apr 2020)

mudsticks said:


> Well rather unsurprisingly, I'd agree.
> 
> But there are many who would say otherwise.
> 
> ...



A lot of talk about a big uptake of farm shops and more shopping local. Which many think will continue after this is over which is fine until they find out the local farm can't grow strawberries at Christmas. The disconnect with food and the reality is massive and ever growing. 
Look I'm saving planet i've a cotton bag the fact it's full of stuff shipped in is lot on them.
The uptake wont fix the biggest problem either many can't afford the stuff in the 1st place. But a lot like to gloss over that when they drive miles so that little Octavia can help mummy with the shopping away from the common people.


----------



## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

Highlighting the daily mail front page







https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-stay-home-rules-allow-small-groups-meet.html

So England is considering bubbles/clusters or the technical name pods for those modelling it. This is interesting as in recent days there had been commentary on it 

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...l-distancing-social-pods-coronavirus-lockdown


----------



## dutchguylivingintheuk (25 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Highlighting the daily mail front page
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The Daily Fail last week claimed they where working on a ''traffic light'' system nothing is heard of it again, i can't find anything in the article suggestion it's not out of their big thumb.. In a other article they claim ms Patel is going to read the riot act.. Sounds more like that not easing at all.


----------



## lane (25 Apr 2020)

The problem is three weeks ago if felt like the lockdown was going to be for a longtime, it was new, people were worried, acting accordingly. Now it feels like the lockdown will be coming to an end soon, there are a lot less people telling you stay home save lives, and people are acting accordingly. Put it another way in the week or two before the lockdown many people pre-empted some aspects of the lockdown in one way or another of thier own volition - now the reverse is happening.

Death rates have lost some of thier shock value just another number on the TV each night.

Plus best estimates are less than 5% of people have been infected so people get the idea they don't have to worry too much because the chances of catching it are not too high. Before the lockdown people were more worried about it I think.

The danger is the lockdown will be lifted in part before the infection rate and R0 have really fallen low enough so a second peak is more of a risk. The government advisors still seem worries infections aren't falling quickly enough.


----------



## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> The problem is three weeks ago if felt like the lockdown was going to be for a longtime, it was new, people were worried, acting accordingly. Now it feels like the lockdown will be coming to an end soon, there are a lot less people telling you stay home save lives, and people are acting accordingly. Put it another way in the week or two before the lockdown many people pre-empted some aspects of the lockdown in one way or another of thier own volition - now the reverse is happening.



Not everyone will go back early. There'll be workers who refuse to go back to work/very cautious about going back to work. It's hard to assess for us, but I suspect that after lockdown ends, there will be less social contact than before. What level of social contact equates to how big the peaks of the waves of the virus is I don't know beyond looking at things like the Imperial study. The government will have to sort out a plan for the 12 week club, the shielders, what they can and can't do for the next couple of years.

You slip of the tongue talk of a 'risk' of a second peak - which unfortunately until recent days was exactly the language the government were using. If on the other hand even you don't believe it, then what chance that anyone out there will listen? This seems to be quite a strange one, you are worried about what others are doing and then effectively saying well I don't believe it anyway, but I'm going to behave differently to them even though neither of us believe any of this stuff.


----------



## mjr (25 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> The govt know the lockdown is being breached by all and sundry - claiming to be working on ventilators or delivering medical equipment.
> 
> STAY HOME PROTECT THE NHS - but B + Q and River island are open !


People really are working to make ventilators and they're already anxious enough about having to leave home to do that work, thanks to the UK government's simplistic and incomplete headline advice. Please stop adding to it.

I agree that I don't see strong reason for the likes of River Island to be open for more than click-collect. Does the Lewis family have the ear of government?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (25 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> *The standard of press questions at the briefings has been crap since day one.*
> Now some clown has just asked a question about Bexit



No surprise. There's a maxim in American journalism that says 'If it bleeds it leads'. Journalists simply look for blood and if none is evident then they try to provoke it's presence.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (25 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> With the lockdown beginning to crumble - what about we all go back to normal but sing happy birthday whilst washing our hands ?



It's only crumbling if people are acting illegally. Maybe some people are finally understanding what they can do within the current legal framework.

Up until yesterday there was _still _ongoing debate here on CC about the 1 hour exercise rule that never was - maybe this is an example of what is driving higher perceived levels of movement?


----------



## PK99 (25 Apr 2020)

Unkraut said:


> That wouldn't necessarily be a disaster, it depends on how far the infection rate has been reduced, and if the figure is a reasonably constant R = <1 then distancing and hygiene and masks might be enough to stop a second wave or general increase in infections - at least low enough to prevent overcrowding of hospitals. It's essential you don't get masses of people crowding together.



The timing of the lifting of restrictions is crucial.


----------



## lane (25 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Not everyone will go back early. There'll be workers who refuse to go back to work/very cautious about going back to work. It's hard to assess for us, but I suspect that after lockdown ends, there will be less social contact than before. What level of social contact equates to how big the peaks of the waves of the virus is I don't know beyond looking at things like the Imperial study. The government will have to sort out a plan for the 12 week club, the shielders, what they can and can't do for the next couple of years.
> 
> You slip of the tongue talk of a 'risk' of a second peak - which unfortunately until recent days was exactly the language the government were using. If on the other hand even you don't believe it, then what chance that anyone out there will listen? This seems to be quite a strange one, you are worried about what others are doing and then effectively saying well I don't believe it anyway, but I'm going to behave differently to them even though neither of us believe any of this stuff.



What do you mean by slip of the tongue? Infact i don't understand the whole of the second paragraph or perhaps you have misinterpreted what I was trying to say?

Your first paragraph makes some sense I think some will behave differently and that will make a difference. But even if you would rather not be back at work its not like you get any choice in the matter.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (25 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> *They are in a very difficult position but nobody is going to thank them when the bodies start piling up if there's a big second peak.* It's uncharted territory. I'm quite prepared to accept another couple of months of restrictions if that significantly reduces the overall death toll. *The problem is that nobody has enough information to make an accurate decision. It's all guesses.*



And even though the decisions are based on medical and scientific advice the government, even if it wasn't a Conservative government. would get a hammering on the damned if you do, damned if you don't front from the media and armchair experts.

I remember a much younger looking Tony & Co during the 'war years' getting a hammering for soldier's boots peeling off in the desert and armour on vehicles being too fragile. Nothing changes.

Why anyone wants to be a politician, let alone party leader/PM, is beyond me - it's not like they are paid particularly well.


----------



## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> It's only crumbling if people are acting illegally. Maybe some people are finally understanding what they can do within the current legal framework.
> 
> Up until yesterday there was _still _ongoing debate here on CC about the 1 hour exercise rule that never was - maybe this is an example of what is driving higher perceived levels of movement?



To be fair the media is saying right now that some report says that there are solid figures suggesting transport is increasing.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (25 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> To be fair the media is saying right now that some report says that there are solid figures suggesting transport is increasing.



That may well be the case, but I'm not saying it isn't increasing (based on my own observations it is) I'm just offering up a 'non-crumbling' alternative reason as to why.


----------



## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> What do you mean by slip of the tongue? Infact i don't understand the whole of the second paragraph or perhaps you have misinterpreted what I was trying to say?
> 
> Your first paragraph makes some sense I think some will behave differently and that will make a difference. But even if you would rather not be back at work its not like you get any choice in the matter.



That you said risk of a second peak accidentally. It's something said so often that I can understand that.

The alternative is that you don't think there will be a second peak. I was pointing out that if you don't think there is an overwhelming chance of that how can you expect other people to behave in the sorts of ways you are saying? Its a debate around language used by the government.


----------



## dutchguylivingintheuk (25 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> And even though the decisions are based on medical and scientific advice the government, even if it wasn't a Conservative government. would get a hammering in the damned if you do, damned if you don't front from the media and armchair experts.


Sure but it are not only armchair experts, to government only seem to listen to the so called ''sage'' experts. I'm sure there capable but this is a new virus and while countries that managed this virus very well all relied on face protection and with hindsight it looks like to right thing to do, yet in here it's not even an recommendation. 


SpokeyDokey said:


> I remember a much younger looking Tony & Co during the 'war years' getting a hammering for soldier's boots peeling off in the desert and armour on vehicles being too fragile. Nothing changes.
> 
> Why anyone wants to be a politician, let alone party leader/PM, is beyond me - it's not like they are paid particularly well.


The Land Rover gate was disgusting they should have acted faster as it was very clear it had became death traps especially in comparison with the Hummers.


----------



## lane (25 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> That you said risk of a second peak accidentally. It's something said so often that I can understand that.
> 
> The alternative is that you don't think there will be a second peak. I was pointing out that if you don't think there is an overwhelming chance of that how can you expect other people to behave in the sorts of ways you are saying? Its a debate around language used by the government.



Do you think a second peak is a given whatever the Government policy is? Is the only question the size of the second peak that will be impacted by policy choices?


----------



## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> That may well be the case, but I'm not saying it isn't increasing (based on my own observations it is) I'm just offering up a 'non-crumbling' alternative reason as to why.



I have been out three times this week to exercise and once to shop. It's hard to say for me what is happening. 

Kingrollo watches and reads too much news like me and tends to post short snippets just after he's seen them. But it's based on stuff he's seen.


----------



## matticus (25 Apr 2020)

Ah yes, those useless "so-called experts".
Damn them!


----------



## lane (25 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> I have been out three times this week to exercise and once to shop. It's hard to say for me what is happening.
> 
> Kingrollo watches and reads too much news like me and tends to post short snippets just after he's seen them. But it's based on stuff he's seen.



Went out for a walk at 10pm yesterday. A week ago I might have seen less than 10 cars. Last night it was 30 or 40 .


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## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Went out for a walk at 10pm yesterday. A week ago I might have seen less than 10 cars. Last night it was 30 or 40 .



When I went out on Monday, I walked to a park and went via the shops as less chance of getting mugged. Despite only 3 shops being open it was very, very busy and a lot of people milling around. Ring road traffic was maybe down by 30%. Other areas quiet. The closed shops also had people doing bolts doing whatever it was they deemed important - preparing to re-open?

When I went out on Weds for exercise road traffic quiet, park quieter than expected despite the gorgeous weather.

Thursday a lot of traffic on the way on exercising. On the way back completely dead. Nothing at all.


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## tom73 (25 Apr 2020)

Couple drive 300 mile for a 'mini break" with no licence or insurance.  
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-52426051


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## SpokeyDokey (25 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Couple drive 300 mile for a 'mini break" with no licence or insurance.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-52426051



Bad people. 

Thankfully, they didn't cycle there - that would've caused a global meltdown in the press.


----------



## flake99please (25 Apr 2020)

Cycled along Portobello seafront earlier today. Three cafes were open for takeaway service. Last week it was one, and at the start of lockdown, nowhere was. Most people in the queues were maintaining 2 metres between each other. 

Numbers of people appeared to be slightly up, with at least half of those looking like they shouldn’t be there at all (70+). 😕


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## tom73 (25 Apr 2020)

Hope they've canceled any furlough claims.


----------



## Edwardoka (25 Apr 2020)

Remember that unthinkable number that was floating about a month ago? That 20,000 coronavirus deaths in the UK would mean we had done very well indeed?
And those who decry "armchair experts" scoffed and called us fearmongers?

Well, we just breezed past that number as if it wasn't even there.


----------



## lane (25 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Remember that unthinkable number that was floating about a month ago? That 20,000 coronavirus deaths in the UK would mean we had done very well indeed?
> And those who decry "armchair experts" scoffed and called us fearmongers?
> 
> Well, we just breezed past that number as if it wasn't even there.



It didn't include a lot of deaths so actual number is much higher. Deaths now steady at 700 to 800 a day and expected to fall very slowly. Realistically we will be at least double the 20k "doing well" number sadly.


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## tom73 (25 Apr 2020)

The health and social care deaths are equally mounting up we've gone from 100 to 129 in five days.


----------



## MarkF (25 Apr 2020)

I don't think BD9 (around the hospital) changed much, now it seems normal to me apart from hospital visits.

My canal ride to Leeds market was hard today, the towpath being at least 5x busier than last week, a lot of picnics going on in lovely weather.

I've seen quite a few long term (year+) end of life patients die this week, it's sad as l get used to them. They've been infected in hospital, but it's no life being shuttled about a hospital waiting to die.


----------



## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

lane said:


> Do you think a second peak is a given whatever the Government policy is? Is the only question the size of the second peak that will be impacted by policy choices?



Yes, I think a second peak is almost certain, irrespective of whatever government policy is.

Yes, the size of the second peak will be impacted slightly by policy choices, albeit it's not very clear what equates to what. It will be impacted more greatly by what the population does and the living/working conditions of the population.

A few months in we suspect or know that:-

The natural R could be as high as 5.7 (Sanche et al. 2020) which would need a herd immunity as high as 80%.
Even if R is a lot lower e.g. 2-3 (Witty, various other governments around the world) it'd need to be around 60%
Various small scale studies such as Gangelt, vo', cruise ship suggest that a bad outbreak's around 15% of a local population.
Larger scale studies and many estimates by epidimiologists suggest 2-3% for larger populations. Some others 5%.
Large enough datasets in Italy suggest that there are areas that for whatever reason seem to have much lower infections e.g. the region of veneto compared to the region of Lombardia
Remdesivir doesn't work
Chloroquine and even deschloroquine appear to be of no practical use due to side effects in patients likely to have coronavirus
Contact tracing is mightily useful to slowing the spread locally, but if your testing capacity is exceeded you're screwed (singapore)
It's run wildly out of control in Singapore in areas migrants live in, as soon/prior to lockdown being lifted.
China's basically shut itself off from the rest of the world with the most unbelievably rigorous tests if you want to travel there
Social distancing and social shielding do work just the precise way isn't known
Face masks offer a bit of protection from someone with the virus passing it onto someone else
Mask wearing sadly may not make that much difference e.g. Italy
That there are PPE wars going on around the world and the government is terrified of the public hoarding them leaving shortages
The government believe mixing indoors in groups of people 10-20 in size is particularly problematic
A vaccine given to a meaningful proportion of the population say 20 million is a year to eighteen months away
The virus rips through carehomes killing many in individual homes if unchecked with between one and a third deaths for every hospital death in a care home.
A massive spike in deaths for other things
The virus hasn't been 'contained' in China/South Korea/Singapore, it'll belt around the planet permanently
Even if it were contained in the western world to a reasonable extent, it could rip through the developing world and reappear
Blood tests are being done suggesting the population has no immunity
Even those that have had the virus have some immunity, it's not understood the level or how long this lasts but many comparisons with other viruses suggest caution e.g. immunity for months or a year.
We have to shield 1.5 million people that are higher risk
We have 10 million key workers who have to go to work in all of this
It's much more likely to kill men than women
Those with a wide range of common long term health conditions are either known for certain or suspected to not get on well with the virus in a sizeable percentage of cases.
Apps could theoretically work but would require an enormously high percentage of the population to use them and for what precise benefit?
That the nose bud tests have very limited finite capacity with many logistical problems making them hard to scale up
Nose bud tests have a higher than suspected failure rate as it involves sticking it very, very far up someone's nose
That governments in the west generally really dislike antibody test kits, sometimes for legitimate reasons.
Not much closer to narrowing down whether asymptomatic patients are 20% or 80% of cases, with many people going in the middle.
Housing density is a factor
Number of multigenerational dwellings in an area might be a biggie
Various forms of pollution don't help by weakening the immune system
That lockdown and lockdown mean completely different things in different countries
It takes a long, long time to climb down off the peak such as Italy (weeks later)
All that screams that you're getting a second peak. It might only be a little one (probably not). It could be continuous cycles, but damped. There might be a gigantic one in the winter as is suspected by epidemiologists. You're getting a second peak though. The only way you aren't is a deus ex machina. This is a big problem for the government as they need to change the language and say a second peak is overwhelmingly likely and that they don't want another gigantic spike.


----------



## lane (25 Apr 2020)

Thanks for the comprehensive, albeit depressing, response.


----------



## randynewmanscat (25 Apr 2020)

dutchguylivingintheuk said:


> Sure but it are not only armchair experts, to government only seem to listen to the so called ''sage'' experts. I'm sure there capable but this is a new virus and while countries that managed this virus very well all relied on face protection and with hindsight it looks like to right thing to do, yet in here it's not even an recommendation.
> 
> The Land Rover gate was disgusting they should have acted faster as it was very clear it had became death traps especially in comparison with the Hummers.


A friend served in the Bosnia UN peacekeeping force UNPROFOR and drove a land rover, it made him nervous because the locals had found themselves in possession of a lot of rocket propelled grenades. He said having a white motor with UN on the sides made him more nervous, target practice for the locals.


----------



## randynewmanscat (25 Apr 2020)

Fairly dark reading for the last few pages here so I thought I would take the opportunity to brag. 
I bought a powerful sun bed and a three bar fire, cleared out my local pharmacy of IV drip bags and canulas and bought dettol in bulk. 
I'm alright Jack!


----------



## tom73 (25 Apr 2020)

If everything fails you can always have a bath and throw in the fire that should see the virus off nicely.


----------



## Blue Hills (25 Apr 2020)

As the global hell continues, the guardian asks the important question.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...successful-at-managing-the-coronavirus-crisis


----------



## randynewmanscat (25 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> If everything fails you can always have a bath and throw in the fire that should see the virus off nicely.


I'm concerned it may invalidate the warranty on the fire. 🤔


----------



## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I'm concerned it may invalidate the warranty on the fire. 🤔



Lots of youtube channels that do such things, might make your money back.


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## randynewmanscat (25 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Lots of youtube channels that do such things, might make your money back.


I'll think about it while baking the corona off under my sunbed. Dr Trump knows his stuff, I'm confident that everyone will have a sunbed soon, or real sun like in Iran.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> It's only crumbling if people are acting illegally. Maybe some people are finally understanding what they can do within the current legal framework.
> 
> Up until yesterday there was _still _ongoing debate here on CC about the 1 hour exercise rule that never was - maybe this is an example of what is driving higher perceived levels of movement?


dunno the less people out and about the less chance of the virus spreading - so B & Q opening imo creates opportunity for the virus to transmit 

flower seller back on the a456 hagley !


----------



## tom73 (25 Apr 2020)

@Brompton Bruce Even the Cerne Abbas Giant is in agreement with the Prof 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52427165


----------



## marinyork (25 Apr 2020)

Daily Mail leads on Rapid Testing technology's test which the government have ordered 50 million of. Delivery by June although a bit vague on numbers, might be hundreds of thousands.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-50million-game-changing-immunity-tests.html


----------



## Rezillo (25 Apr 2020)

The Times/Sunday Times has largely demolished the government's response to the Sunday Times original article critical of the government's actions. Paywall, so no link but it makes for interesting reading if you have a sub.


----------



## RoadRider400 (25 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Daily Mail leads on Rapid Testing technology's test which the government have ordered 50 million of. Delivery by June although a bit vague on numbers, might be hundreds of thousands.
> 
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-50million-game-changing-immunity-tests.html


£10? Thats a bargain. Count me down for one of them!


----------



## Edwardoka (26 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> As the global hell continues, the guardian asks the important question.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...successful-at-managing-the-coronavirus-crisis


It seems like this is the grauniad working its usual angles but few can argue that Ardern's leadership hasn't cast very many leaders in a deeply unfavourable light. Frankly I'm all for getting rid of male world leaders. We are RUBBISH at it.

The next President of the biggest superpower on earth is either going to be a guy who advocates injecting disinfectant and UV light or the guy who gets 1.5 million likes for tweeting "I can’t believe I have to say this, but please don’t drink bleach. "

Way to set the bar high, rich old men.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (26 Apr 2020)

There's a marked increase in air traffic to Heathrow this morning. I've noticed 5 in the last 20 minutes. I wouldn't notice them normally but it's been so quiet of late that they stand out. 2 BA, 1 Aer Lingus, (smallish aircraft) and 2 probably intercontinental flights, white with red tailfins (not Swiss carriers). Little road traffic yet.


----------



## marinyork (26 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> There's a marked increase in air traffic to Heathrow this morning. I've noticed 5 in the last 20 minutes. I wouldn't notice them normally but it's been so quiet of late that they stand out. 2 BA, 1 Aer Lingus, (smallish aircraft) and 2 probably intercontinental flights, white with red tailfins (not Swiss carriers). Little road traffic yet.



A lot of discussion last night and this morning about there being 15,000 people arriving in the UK where currently there are believed to be no checks whatsoever and no quarantine period.


----------



## tom73 (26 Apr 2020)

FFS what's the point of having carers turning up in full PPE so they can care and protect your wife.
Only for this morning to have your son turn up with his wife and 2 young kids for a visit.
I beginning to think i'm living in a street with a mass death wish.


----------



## AndyRM (26 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> A lot of discussion last night and this morning about there being 15,000 people arriving in the UK where currently there are believed to be no checks whatsoever and no quarantine period.



I really cannot get my head around air travel being acceptable.


----------



## tom73 (26 Apr 2020)

Neither can the government it sounds like if the ramblings of Raab in the interview today. 
Is anything to go by. We are being guided by "the science" is code for we don't understand what we are being told.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (26 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Neither can the government it sounds like if the ramblings of Raab in the interview today.
> Is anything to go by. We are being guided by "the science" is code for we don't understand what we are being told.


My impression is that they've been following the science from an excessive distance all along. Perhaps they're afraid of catching science.


----------



## PK99 (26 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> My impression is that they've been following the science from an excessive distance all along. Perhaps they're afraid of catching science.



The science of Pandemics is dealt with in this video from 2018, I'd posted it before but doubt many have watched the full 53 minutes.

you will see from this that they have been following the science very closely


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn55z95L1h8&list=PLhtkwgaSAUtaDFMdfhSvxp_keWgaB16A8&index=4&t=0s


----------



## Blue Hills (26 Apr 2020)

Interesting. Will try to watch. Thanks for posting. Used to go to quite a few gresham lectures.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (26 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> My impression is that they've been following the science from an excessive distance all along. Perhaps they're afraid of catching science.


The role of government is to balance the various views of scientists and economists and then make a decision. To claim that they are following the science is misleading as I would expect experts to recommend a more rigorous lockdown.
The government needs to own the outcome.


----------



## mjr (26 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> [*]Various forms of pollution don't help by weakening the immune system


Do we now know that's the reason, rather than c19 being carried on pollution or something?


----------



## marinyork (26 Apr 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Interesting. Will try to watch. Thanks for posting. Used to go to quite a few gresham lectures.



Been posted about four times now, it's just people are on different peoples' ignore lists so not aware.


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## marinyork (26 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Do we now know that's the reason, rather than c19 being carried on pollution or something?



The list said suspect or know. There are other things on there I didn't put on or details not gone into.

Some forms of pollution could literally be spreading it, having a free ride said elsewhere or staying in the air longer. It could be both.

The definitive answer to that either if it ever comes is probably going to advance human understanding in some useful way.


----------



## PK99 (26 Apr 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> The role of government is to balance the various views of scientists and economists and then make a decision. To claim that they are following the science is misleading as* I would expect experts to recommend a more rigorous lockdown.*
> The government needs to own the outcome.



See around minute 48 in the above video- Whitty describes screening at airports and banning of travel as "...utterly useless..."


----------



## DaveReading (26 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> There's a marked increase in air traffic to Heathrow this morning.



No, there isn't. About 40 flights have landed so far today, pretty much the same number as for the last few mornings.

The only difference is that, after 10 days of landings and takeoffs in an easterly direction (so aircraft were approaching from the west, over Berkshire), the wind has changed and now arriving aircraft are coming in over Central London.


----------



## Blue Hills (26 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> Been posted about four times now, it's just people are on different peoples' ignore lists so not aware.


I have no one on ignore (never seen the point) - just not seen before.


----------



## Blue Hills (26 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> It seems like this is the grauniad working its usual angles but few can argue that Ardern's leadership hasn't cast very many leaders in a deeply unfavourable light. Frankly I'm all for getting rid of male world leaders. We are RUBBISH at it.
> 
> The next President of the biggest superpower on earth is either going to be a guy who advocates injecting disinfectant and UV light or the guy who gets 1.5 million likes for tweeting "I can’t believe I have to say this, but please don’t drink bleach. "
> 
> Way to set the bar high, rich old men.


mm - agree with the implication of your first bit - the guardian gender desk has long been flakey (polite word) though at least it has been improved with the mass disappearance of comments on many gender articles where the modding was often disgraceful. 
I posted it as it somewhat flabbergasted me and as an example of how some from Trump to con merchants are trying to pathetically leverage the hell. To go more into depth on it would be a thread divert though.

>>Frankly I'm all for getting rid of male world leaders. We are RUBBISH at it.

Maybe you should start a new thread.


----------



## tom73 (26 Apr 2020)

Well if old Reagan had still been in change I'm sure Nancy would have fixed it all by now.
Either that or he'd have got on his horse and shot it.


----------



## PK99 (26 Apr 2020)

MrsPK is off to give blood later in the week.

Following a link on the reminder e-mail took her to a FAQ, where among other things was:

*Why are you not taking people’s temperature on arrival? *

_Our colleagues in Italy found that checking temperature was not an effective way of determining whether somebody was potentially infected with coronavirus – a normal temperature reading in a donor may provide false reassurance about risks. (Ed: my emphasis)_ We assess donors when they arrive to make sure they are fit to donate and ask them if they are displaying any symptoms of coronavirus. This is not a medical diagnosis. If anyone has a high temperature they should self-isolate and contact NHS 111 online. We are keeping all safety measures under constant review and may make further changes in the future.


----------



## kingrollo (26 Apr 2020)

This thread is the best source of information on the web. Long live the armchair experts !


----------



## newfhouse (26 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> This thread is the best source of information on the web.


How do you know that?


----------



## kingrollo (26 Apr 2020)

newfhouse said:


> How do you know that?


Touche - I don't.
But I find the discussion on here very informative with a good cross section of views.


----------



## tom73 (26 Apr 2020)

Mrs 73 friends husband has been put on a ventilator with Covid he’s got underlaying medical conditions.
They both have learning disabilities so she doesn’t understand what the hospital are telling her.
Mrs 73 is having to explain the drugs they are giving him won’t cure him.
It‘s pretty grim set of messages she’s having to send 
On the plus side his stats are good and holding up.


----------



## mjr (26 Apr 2020)

Belgium's unlockdown plan: B2B and masked public transport from 4 May, shops from 11 May, schools, family visits and day trips from 18 May. No word yet AFAICT for hotels, cafés and restaurants, among others, or non-essential border crossings.


----------



## slowmotion (27 Apr 2020)

marinyork said:


> The list said suspect or know. There are other things on there I didn't put on or details not gone into.
> 
> Some forms of pollution could literally be spreading it, having a free ride said elsewhere or staying in the air longer. It could be both.
> 
> The definitive answer to that either if it ever comes is probably going to advance human understanding in some useful way.


I thought that the airborne pollution angle was that people who live in polluted environments tend to suffer more from respiratory problems, and those type of problems tend to lead to serious Covid-19 consequences.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I thought that the airborne pollution angle was that people who live in polluted environments tend to suffer more from respiratory problems, and those type of problems tend to lead to serious Covid-19 consequences.


That's the more hopeful prognosis. The other theory is that the virus clings to pollution particles - thus spreading via airborne particles.


----------



## johnblack (27 Apr 2020)

Sorry if alreay posted. Interesting article in the FT about excess death rates which is possibly the best way to get an idea of the scale of the issue as deaths related to Covid are reported in many different ways across the world. https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

Excess deaths compared to previous years in England and Wales are lower than Italy, Spain , Belgium and Holland, slightly higher than France. the second table comparing cities shows some even more frightening increases.


----------



## tom73 (27 Apr 2020)

Greggs plans to reopen 
"We want to play our part in getting the nation back up and running again" 
Covid roll anyone ?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (27 Apr 2020)

Complete idiot here:

*Coronavirus Isle of Man: Dog walker fined £1,000 for picking up his girlfriend*

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-52427068


----------



## slowmotion (27 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> That's the more hopeful prognosis. The other theory is that the virus clings to pollution particles - thus spreading via airborne particles.


I suppose it could just be that more densely populated areas tend to have greater transmission rates and also tend to have greater levels of pollution.


----------



## mjr (27 Apr 2020)

On the one hand, I'd say that still well over 80% of the non-commuter traffic I've seen today (mostly from my window, but also while out exercising) has appeared to be commercial (lorries, works vans, and so on); but on the other hand, the car park at the local woods was well over half full and the people I saw getting out as I rode past had driven there to walk dogs. Is lockdown mostly being respected or not? Damned if I can tell!


----------



## Adam4868 (27 Apr 2020)

A lot more businesses have opened today near me.I cut through a industrial estate on my morning ride and today even the burger vans were open.Last week it was screwfix and a couple of others.A lot more vehicles out today also.


----------



## mjr (27 Apr 2020)

Over in Paris, some people in the Butte-Montmartre area seem to have rebelled against the 10am-7pm curfew by dancing:

View: https://twitter.com/CocoChrist/status/1254125416421437440

Police were criticised for their soft approach when they've allegedly used tear-gas to break up groups in nearby Seine-Saint-Denis.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (27 Apr 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I thought that the airborne pollution angle was that people who live in polluted environments tend to suffer more from respiratory problems, and those type of problems tend to lead to serious Covid-19 consequences.



It is, there is a scientific paper on this and there is a very strong correlation between levels of PM2.5 particles and severity of COVID 19 symptom and death rates. But this is pre lockdown pollution levels measured over years not current levels which are dramatically lower. They found no correlation between current levels and virus transmission or death rates.


----------



## mjr (27 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> It is, there is a scientific paper on this and there is a very strong correlation between levels of PM2.5 particles and severity of COVID 19 symptom and death rates. But this is pre lockdown pollution levels measured over years not current levels which are dramatically lower. They found no correlation between current levels and virus transmission or death rates.


What paper's that?

I think @kingrollo was talking about one of these:

"Our hypothesis is that the atmosphere, rich of air pollutants, together with certain climatic conditions may promote a longer permanence of the of viral particles in the air, thus favoring an “indirect” diffusion in addition to the direct"

"Atmospheric PM has a sub-layer that facilitates the virus survival in airflows for hours or days."

SARS-Cov-2 RNA Found on Particulate Matter of Bergamo in Northern Italy: First Preliminary Evidence


----------



## Ming the Merciless (27 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> What paper's that?
> 
> I think @kingrollo was talking about one of these:
> 
> ...



Go to the usual place they are published for review and sure you’ll find it. Published about two weeks ago from memory.


----------



## tom73 (27 Apr 2020)

NHS rejects Apple/Google plan and ploughs on with it's own app it's own way. 
Having seen an interview with the NHS lead on this he come across totally clueless I don't think this will end well. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428


----------



## Tanis8472 (27 Apr 2020)

Ffs 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1254817555233062912


----------



## tom73 (27 Apr 2020)

The government have on the QT agreed to support the call from the RCN, RCM and unison. 
For a 1 minute silence to be held tomorrow at 11am for all the health and key workers who have sadly died due to the virus. For the recored Hancock lied today the true figure of health and social care workers who have died is 136. 
So if you get the chance hope you will take a minute to remember the ones who have died caring for others.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (27 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> The government have on the QT agreed to support the call from the RCN, RCM and unison.
> For a 1 minute silence to be held tomorrow at 11am for all the health and key workers who have sadly died due to the virus. For the recored Hancock lied today the true figure of health and social care workers who have died is 136.
> So if you get the chance hope you will take a minute to remember the ones who have died caring for others.


Did he just give the hospitals total? I seem to remember him saying something like 82.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (27 Apr 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Ffs
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1254817555233062912




Sorry, not understanding this post.


----------



## tom73 (27 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Did he just give the hospitals total? I seem to remember him saying something like 82.


Even if he did that figure is not right either. He also said 16 care staff.


----------



## Inertia (27 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> NHS rejects Apple/Google plan and ploughs on with it's own app it's own way.
> Having seen an interview with the NHS lead on this he come across totally clueless I don't think this will end well.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428


Aside from their ability to do it better than the people who literally write the OS for the phones. it seems to me that anything that is a barrier for people using it, battery life, privacy concerns, is a bad thing


----------



## Salty seadog (27 Apr 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> The role of government is to balance the various views of scientists and economists and then make a decision. To claim that they are following the science is misleading as I would expect experts to recommend a more rigorous lockdown.
> *The government needs to own the outcome.*



 haha, got any more like that.


----------



## mjr (27 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> NHS rejects Apple/Google plan and ploughs on with it's own app it's own way.
> Having seen an interview with the NHS lead on this he come across totally clueless I don't think this will end well.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428


This week's BBC Click has an intro to these apps but it's rather uncritical.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (27 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> NHS rejects Apple/Google plan and ploughs on with it's own app it's own way.
> Having seen an interview with the NHS lead on this he come across totally clueless I don't think this will end well.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428



It is an example of scope creep making it harder to deliver the original intentions. File it under projects going wrong , taking longer and costing far more than forecast, and not meeting original objectives.

Do one thing, and do it well.


----------



## Edwardoka (27 Apr 2020)

Government I.T. projects famously always deliver the exact brief on time and under budget and without any crippling technical issues, I foresee no problems whatsoever

_Fast forward two weeks_

What do you mean the database has been hacked and the precise location history of every person who has installed it is available on the dark web?
I cannot see how anyone could have possibly foreseen such a thing. Lessons will be learned from this, we assure you. There must be an inquiry.

_Fast forward two weeks_

So, about that Russia report... sorry, Larry the Downing Street cat ate it


----------



## Tanis8472 (27 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Sorry, not understanding this post.



Rather than giving the families money, even though there are schemes already in place, give them farking ppe so they don't die in the first place. Hth


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Apr 2020)

Heard Johnson's speech, or some of it, on the news tonight. 

Alas, his near death experience appears not to have changed him. Still the same bombast, empty rhetoric. 

The contrast to a clip of Ardern later was telling in the extreme.


----------



## PK99 (27 Apr 2020)

It is interesting to look at how New Zealand has been able to cope so well with the Covid-19 Pandemic.

There has been much justifiable praise of Ardern and contrasts with other leaders.

But is is worth looking beyond that at the Societal and structural factors that have led to their success.

Just typing "NZ civil defence" into Google leads directly to a veritable cascade of information relating to the many and various major hazards that are part of every day life in NZ :

_"In New Zealand we have a lot of natural hazards. Earthquakes, floods, landslides, snow, storms, tsunami, volcanic activity, and other hazards can happen any time and often without warning. "_

Recent Volcanic and Earthquake activity in NZ only serve to emphasise the reality of the hazards and the need for preplanning

Pandemic preplanning was a natural part of the Civil Defence structures

Add to that the Bio-security controls faced by anyone entering NZ and the general awareness of the need to protect NZ from the entry of Pests & Diseases and there ability to exercise the control they have becomes clear.

Some links in the cascade:

*Civil defence and disaster/emergency preparedness*

https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/

https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/get-ready/prepared-for-an-emergency/

https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/get-ready/learn-about-hazards/

https://getready.govt.nz/emergency/

*Pandemic Planning*

https://www.health.govt.nz/your-hea...-response/prepare-yourself-influenza-pandemic

https://www.health.govt.nz/your-hea...esponse/workplace-pandemic-influenza-guidance

https://www.health.govt.nz/your-hea...e/health-sector-pandemic-influenza-guidance-0

https://www.health.govt.nz/your-hea...planning-and-response/influenza-pandemic-plan

https://www.health.govt.nz/your-hea...ic-planning-and-response/pandemic-legislation

*Bio Security*

https://www.mpi.govt.nz/biosecuritynz/

https://www.biosecurity.govt.nz/travel-and-recreation/arriving-in-new-zealand/


----------



## Unkraut (28 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Heard Johnson's speech, or some of it, on the news tonight.
> 
> Alas, his near death experience appears not to have changed him. Still the same bombast, empty rhetoric.


I think this is a real shame, I was hoping it might impart some wisdom. What strikes me about the whole government approach to the pandemic is that there is no-one who has any grip. Someone who bends the rules, goads, chivies and generally ensures that what needs doing gets done, and do the paperwork afterwards.


----------



## Adam4868 (28 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> It is interesting to look at how New Zealand has been able to cope so well with the Covid-19 Pandemic.
> 
> There has been much justifiable praise of Ardern and contrasts with other leaders.
> 
> ...


Or it could be they didnt go with the herd immunity....
There an Island and took advantage of that.They quarantined people arriving for 14 days,whilst we allowed people to arrive without any checks.When you look at Johnson and look at Ardern you have to ask yourself what a leader looks like.She has put people's lives above the economy...now if only Dom and Johnson could have thought of that.


----------



## Eziemnaik (28 Apr 2020)

If you have watched the last night'spanorama here is the resposne of free media today


----------



## MarkF (28 Apr 2020)

We are still some way from knowing whether or not the lockdown, as it was implemented, was necessary. 

https://www.israel21c.org/lockdown-only-made-corona-crisis-worse-claim-experts/

I'll post hospital figures later but ICU had a short period (days) at 75% occupancy, then never got above 50%. All extra facilities installed to cope with the virus were never used. Many staff are getting stressed out with not being able to get tested, one colleague rang in yesterday positive, he shared a small changing room that maybe 100 people use......social distancing is impossible and not implemented nor followed in the hospital anyway.


----------



## Eziemnaik (28 Apr 2020)

Some of the least affected countries did not impose lockdown or the one imposed was very light compared to some of the worst affected (Japan, Korea, Taiwan)


----------



## Electric_Andy (28 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> We are still some way from knowing whether or not the lockdown, as it was implemented, was necessary.
> 
> https://www.israel21c.org/lockdown-only-made-corona-crisis-worse-claim-experts/
> 
> I'll post hospital figures later but ICU had a short period (days) at 75% occupancy, then never got above 50%. All extra facilities installed to cope with the virus were never used. Many staff are getting stressed out with not being able to get tested, one colleague rang in yesterday positive, he shared a small changing room that maybe 100 people use......social distancing is impossible and not implemented nor followed in the hospital anyway.


"According to the model, if a country adopts a policy of social distancing as much as possible, including at work; 14 days self-quarantine of every person with symptoms such as fever or cough; testing all individuals with symptoms; and hygiene measures including facemasks in public places, then in most cases there is no need for a lockdown."

Wasn't that based on testing all individuals with symptoms though? Which we aren't doing. It also supposes that everyone follows the lockdown rules, which we as a country aren't doing either. I'm not claiming to be an armchair expert, but models can be extremely good providing that they take into account sociological discrepancies such as people still bending the rules to suit them?


----------



## Rezillo (28 Apr 2020)

I spent the last few years of my career working on groups where the NHS and local government were supposed to work together on various health issues, including the reduction of winter deaths. Mrs R's job also involved much the same, albeit at a higher level than me. Anyway, the result was that we got very used to dealing with excess death figures and explaining them to various organisational and political leaders.

I have never seen anything remotely like this, and it is not even winter. The totals are bad enough but to see such 'all deaths' figures within the space of three weeks as opposed to a 'bad season' over an entire winter summed from less elevated figures; well, it is just jaw-dropping.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> We are still some way from knowing whether or not the lockdown, as it was implemented, was necessary.
> 
> https://www.israel21c.org/lockdown-only-made-corona-crisis-worse-claim-experts/
> 
> I'll post hospital figures later but ICU had a short period (days) at 75% occupancy, then never got above 50%. All extra facilities installed to cope with the virus were never used. Many staff are getting stressed out with not being able to get tested, one colleague rang in yesterday positive, he shared a small changing room that maybe 100 people use......social distancing is impossible and not implemented nor followed in the hospital anyway.



Cases were doubling every three-four days pre-lockdown.

If we'd left it another week, we could easily have peaked at 4,000 daily deaths, not 1,000. That would have overwhelmed the NHS.

If we'd implemented a week earlier, it might only have been 250.

The countries claimed not to have lockdowns all either have significant social distancing and an extensive test and trace policy - which is only effective if case numbers are low so as not to overwhelm the system.

We tried voluntary social distancing for a week or so and it was a disaster. The alternative *at that point* was lockdown or 100s of thousands of deaths. Of course, if we'd acted sooner, and more seriously, we could have been in a position more like Germany.

The evidence seems to be that even with our lockdown, we have only just suppressed the virus, with Ro estimates around 0.6 to 0.8.


----------



## MarkF (28 Apr 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> Wasn't that based on testing all individuals with symptoms though? Which we aren't doing. It also supposes that everyone follows the lockdown rules, which we as a country aren't doing either. I'm not claiming to be an armchair expert, but models can be extremely good providing that they take into account sociological discrepancies such as people still bending the rules to suit them?



Not disagreeing with that Andy but as of now, we don't know whether or not a lockdown (as was implemented) or the threat of one, alongside social distancing and improved hygiene might have been better. I am beginning to see an unpleasant reaction to the lockdown in and around the hospital.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Not disagreeing with that Andy but as of now, we don't know whether or not a lockdown (as was implemented) or the threat of one, alongside social distancing and improved hygiene might have been better.



I think it was very clear in the week before lockdown here that the voluntary requests not to attend bars, resaurants, social gatherings were being ignored. Well, worse than that actually, they were being treated as a last chance to party before lockdown!


----------



## Electric_Andy (28 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> Not disagreeing with that Andy but as of now, we don't know whether or not a lockdown (as was implemented) or the threat of one, alongside social distancing and improved hygiene might have been better. I am beginning to see an unpleasant reaction to the lockdown in and around the hospital.


Yeah true. It might be that now we are more prepared (Nightingale hospitals etc) a relaxation of the lockdown would be ok. But I just don't trust a fair minority of the British public. Relaxation to some means it's all over and carry on as normal.


----------



## mjr (28 Apr 2020)

Does anyone else feel that the minute's silence part way through this crisis is a bit premature and wonder whether it's Dom's latest distraction from today's ONS stats release? The pictures of ministers standing around for the silence made me think I'd rather they spent even that minute working on sorting out the PPE shortages. Respect is great but will it save lives?


----------



## Andy in Germany (28 Apr 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> Yeah true. It might be that now we are more prepared (Nightingale hospitals etc) a relaxation of the lockdown would be ok. But I just don't trust a fair minority of the British public. Relaxation to some means it's all over and carry on as normal.



It also puts pressure on people who know they need to keep isolating to go back to normal, and could provide a convenient excuse to stop supporting them.

We also have to remember that a second outbreak is likely; Germany seems to already be assuming one will come in winter of this year.


----------



## matticus (28 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> ...
> We tried voluntary social distancing for a week or so and it was a disaster. The alternative *at that point* was lockdown or 100s of thousands of deaths. Of course, if we'd acted sooner, and more seriously, we could have been in a position more like Germany.
> 
> The evidence seems to be that even with our lockdown, we have only just suppressed the virus, with Ro estimates around 0.6 to 0.8.





MarkF said:


> Not disagreeing with that Andy but as of now, we don't know whether or not a lockdown (as was implemented) or *the threat of one, alongside social distancing and improved hygiene might have been better.* I am beginning to see an unpleasant reaction to the lockdown in and around the hospital.


(my bold) Yes, my interpretation of the evidence (so far) is that "full" lockdown was not what tipped the balance in the UK - _voluntary social distancing and extra hygiene did._ I put the Oxford Uni report in a separate thread: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/peak-infections-occurred-before-full-lockdown.260300/


----------



## mjr (28 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> (my bold) Yes, my interpretation of the evidence (so far) is that "full" lockdown was not what tipped the balance in the UK - _voluntary social distancing and extra hygiene did._ I put the Oxford Uni report in a separate thread: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/peak-infections-occurred-before-full-lockdown.260300/


I saw only a repeat of the Daily Mail. Where's the Oxford University report, please?


----------



## matticus (28 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> I saw only a repeat of the Daily Mail. Where's the Oxford University report, please?


One professor explained the data in that link - he's talking about an Oxford study. The Mail didn't do the study.
Another professor (also from Oxford Uni) was interviewed on More or Less (which think I referenced in that post?); he reported on work done by the same unit (_IIRC _it's the Evidential Medicine Unit). Also, _not _a study by the Mail.
https://www.phc.ox.ac.uk/research/oxford-centre-for-evidence-based-medicine

(I have no control over what the Daily Mail publishes, sorry!)


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> (my bold) Yes, my interpretation of the evidence (so far) is that "full" lockdown was not what tipped the balance in the UK - _voluntary social distancing and extra hygiene did._ I put the Oxford Uni report in a separate thread: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/peak-infections-occurred-before-full-lockdown.260300/



A couple of points. Firstly, given the timescales for incubation, deconvoluting the effect of a week's voluntary measures from the subsequent lockdown is pretty much impossible. 

Second, that if we now have Ro of ~0.7, it must be almost certainly case that the voluntary measures, which were obviously not working as intended, would not have delivered the Ro of <1 required. 

I see no link to an Oxford Uni report anywhere?


----------



## Andy in Germany (28 Apr 2020)

According to the European centre for diesase preventionand control, the UK passed Germany as the country with the third highest number of cases in Europe yesterday.


----------



## Eziemnaik (28 Apr 2020)

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-the-tipping-point/


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

The data on infections and deaths are so poor it's hard to back any view that voluntary measures got us to this point. 
The guy is not an epidemiologist but a GP. He's entitled to his own views and ideas but i'd wait until we really have the full facts and true stats.
We need to be very open minded of anyone who talks about certainty when facts are too iffy at the moment. 
In interviews he often comes across as someone boarding on conspiracy theories.


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

This guy really is clueless but even worse he looks to be in total denial.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdkNRmrDtp4


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-the-tipping-point/



Is this meant to relate to the "oxford report" mentioned above? 

If so, it makes no claims to when the peak infections were, so seems irrelevant?

Also, it's not a remotely a scientific report, more a short opinion piece or press release.


----------



## Eziemnaik (28 Apr 2020)

Yes it is
Here is another one
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-2th-april/


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Yes it is



Yes it is what?


----------



## Eziemnaik (28 Apr 2020)

Yes it is the report on which aforememtioned news article was based sir


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

The disclaimer is pretty clear 
the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked. The views expressed in this commentary represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the host institution, the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care. The views are not a substitute for professional medical advice.


----------



## Levo-Lon (28 Apr 2020)

We are now having to wear masks all day.
Thin ,poor fitted, all it does is make my exhaled air go up into my eyes and steam up my specs.. And tickle, so the urge to rub them has increased also..

On the plus side I look heaps better


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> We are now having to wear masks all day.
> Thin ,poor fitted, all it does is make my exhaled air go up into my eyes and steam up my specs.. And tickle, so the urge to rub them has increased also..
> 
> On the plus side I look heaps better



Have you enough in stock to change them over the course of a day or is it one for all day?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Yes it is the report on which aforememtioned news article was based sir



But it makes no mention whatever of the peak being before lockdown, which was the claim. How is it relevant? I'm very confused.


----------



## Eziemnaik (28 Apr 2020)

Well beats me
I suppose they interpolate from the peak deaths that peak infections occured before the lockdown


----------



## glasgowcyclist (28 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Does anyone else feel that the minute's silence part way through this crisis is a bit premature and wonder whether it's Dom's latest distraction from today's ONS stats release?




It's an international memorial to honour everyone who's been killed at their work or through work-related activity and has been observed on 28 April for years. It's not specific to Covid-19.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Well beats me
> I suppose they interpolate from the peak deaths that peak infections occured before the lockdown



No, they don't. The issue is not even mentioned in the article you linked. Why do you think it's relevant?


----------



## Eziemnaik (28 Apr 2020)

Because one of the authors of the report did indeed claim peak infections occured before the lockdown


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

As @glasgowcyclist points out the day is already in place. But not generally known and marked by most of the population.
Which is why the RCN, RCM and unison thought it was appropriate to raise awareness of the day and ask that it was used to mark the death of key workers at this time.
It had nothing to do with trying to hide anything the government did not exactly make a big deal of it. No big formal public statement in fact it was only late yesterday that they even said they back it and even then on the QT.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Because one of the authors of the report did indeed claim peak infections occured before the lockdown



Maybe. But not in that "report". Why is the report relevant?


----------



## PK99 (28 Apr 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> "According to the model, if a country adopts a policy of social distancing as much as possible, including at work; 14 days self-quarantine of every person with symptoms such as fever or cough; testing all individuals with symptoms; and hygiene measures including facemasks in public places, then in most cases there is no need for a lockdown."
> 
> Wasn't that based on testing all individuals with symptoms though? Which we aren't doing. It also supposes that everyone follows the lockdown rules, which we as a country aren't doing either. I'm not claiming to be an armchair expert, but models can be extremely good providing that they take into account sociological discrepancies such as people still bending the rules to suit them?



All models rely on the assumptions made and data fed in. I would guess that the models will be run with different sets of each to determine sensitivity.


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

Face covering now recommend in Scotland
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-public-use-of-face-coverings/


----------



## mjr (28 Apr 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> It's an international memorial to honour everyone who's been killed at their work or through work-related activity and has been observed on 28 April for years. It's not specific to Covid-19.


Oh OK. That's not how it was reported on BBC News and I have no recollection of seeing May or Cameron observing it in recent years.

So I reduce my cynicism to just being that UK ministers observing it is an attempt to bury the ONS data release.


----------



## Eziemnaik (28 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Maybe. But not in that "report". Why is the report relevant?


Because it highlights the futility of the lockdown?


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

Look's like Sturgeon has been taking advice for CNO and used the same reply to as to the numbers of healthcare staff who have sadly died. 
Individual numbers may lead to families being identified. Is Code for I don't know just own up and say so just like the CNO that reply is so patronising.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Because it highlights the futility of the lockdown?



So what? The claim was that an "Oxford Uni Report" showed cases peaked before lockdown. If that report exists, this isn't it.


----------



## Salty seadog (28 Apr 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Government I.T. projects famously always deliver the exact brief on time and under budget and without any crippling technical issues, I foresee no problems whatsoever
> 
> _Fast forward two weeks_
> 
> ...



There's a Russia Report?


----------



## Levo-Lon (28 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Have you enough in stock to change them over the course of a day or is it one for all day?




No, and I just had a chat with the manager about that.
We don't have enough. 
I've got 6, one a day.


----------



## Yellow Fang (28 Apr 2020)

Got to say that if Germany gets a B and South Korea gets an A it is difficult to give the British government more than a C, although they deserve more than an E.


----------



## Tanis8472 (28 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Does anyone else feel that the minute's silence part way through this crisis is a bit premature and wonder whether it's Dom's latest distraction from today's ONS stats release? The pictures of ministers standing around for the silence made me think I'd rather they spent even that minute working on sorting out the PPE shortages. Respect is great but will it save lives?





https://www.tuc.org.uk/international-workers-memorial-day-iwmd



> Every year more people are killed at work than in wars. Most don't die of mystery ailments, or in tragic "accidents". They die because an employer decided their safety just wasn't that important a priority. International Workers’ Memorial Day (IWMD) commemorates those workers.



I find it distasteful.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Got to say that if Germany gets a B and South Korea gets an A it is difficult to give the British government more than a C, although they deserve more than an E.



The UK is on track to have the worst outbreak in a major country, despite having more time than others.

I'd say that a D would be very generous.

Can you think of a single country that has done worse?

[Edit: except perhaps China which in its initial dictatorial cover up probably missed the chance to nip the whole thing in the bud]


----------



## mjr (28 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Because one of the authors of the report did indeed claim peak infections occured before the lockdown


To be clear, the non-statistician author of the report is reported by the famously-unreliable Daily Mail to have claimed that.

There's also a much later report available than the one you linked, https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-27th-april/ but I guess one-peakers don't like that because the peak claim has been moved down the page to reduce its importance.


----------



## Yellow Fang (28 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The UK is on track to have the worst outbreak in a major country, despite having more time than others.
> 
> I'd say that a D would be very generous.
> 
> Can you think of a single country that has done worse?


America and Sweden. If they get away with a lower death count it will be because of their lower settlement densities. 
Unemployment may end up worse in many other countries.


----------



## mjr (28 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Because it highlights the futility of the lockdown?


Summary of UK advice and lockdown:
2 Feb: Matt Hancock issues handwashing/sneezing advice;
13 Feb: Chris Whitty says no behaviour change needed;
25 Feb: those returning from Italian quarantine zones advised to quarantine for 14 days;
29 Feb: Chris Whitty says school closures not needed;
3 Mar: Boris shook hands with everybody at a hospital;
7 Mar: Boris shook hands at Twickenham;
9 Mar: Boris issues handwashing/sneezing advice;
12 Mar: those with symptoms told to quarantine for just 7 days (WHO advice is for the whole time you have symptoms plus 14 days after);
16 Mar: Boris advises to work from home and against travel, pubs and theatres; those with symptoms now told to quarantine for 14 days (so anyone already quarantined since 12 Mar would not be out yet);
17 Mar: Foreign Office advisory against nonessential travel abroad - but travel numbers reportedly already falling fast;
18 Mar: schools to close 20 Mar - widely reported that many parents had withdrawn their children before that;
20 Mar: entertainment and leisure venues ordered to close but it takes a day to make it legal;
23 Mar: lockdown announced but it takes two more days to make it legal;
27 Mar: Boris and Hancock test positive, Whitty develops symptoms.

If the peak really was obtained at 8 April and the median time for symptoms to show is 5 days and the median time between symptoms and death is 18.5 days, that may put the key change 23.5 days before the 2pm, so 2am on 16 March, which would suggest the key change was telling anyone with any symptoms to quarantine, rather than even the not-quite-Swedish lockdown bankrupting hospitality without a bailout/furlough scheme.

BUT! The counterpoint to this is that these are all probabilities and estimates and it's a long time between taking an action and seeing the reaction, so rather like steering a heavy boat, a heavier adjustment to the rudder may have been needed once we started to drift off course in order to bring us back sooner. It would have been a brave or foolhardy captain who stopped after the quarantine order and the expected cost of a small probability of crashing into full hospitals would probably have been higher than the expected cost of a probably-unnecessary lockdown.

Correction (29 April): I totally lost track that we are talking about the "peak" which is basically the "mode" and something like time-to-death will be very skewed, so the mode will be less than the median. In line with https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/peak-infections-occurred-before-full-lockdown.260300/post-5975500 - this means that peak infection probably occurred at some point between 16 March and 3 April and we need more information about typical time-to-death before we can decide when is most likely. Any claims that it was one side or the other of 24 March probably tells you more about the claimant than the virus! 

Statisticians and epidemiologists will probably argue about this one for decades. I think that, at best, we need more information about this virus and illness than we have even now to decide reliably when and how to unlock, let alone whether we locked down optimally.

(edited to add missing words and line breaks - edited to add correction)


----------



## Andy in Germany (28 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> We are now having to wear masks all day.
> Thin ,poor fitted, all it does is make my exhaled air go up into my eyes and steam up my specs.. And tickle, so the urge to rub them has increased also..
> 
> On the plus side I look heaps better



Draw a toothy smile on the outside.

I sympatise with the steaming up glasses problem, as the cotton masks I have do the same. I'll need them at work as well I expect.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> America and Sweden. If they get away with a lower death count it will be because of their lower settlement densities.
> Unemployment may end up worse in many other countries.



USA has a much lower death rate than us - many states responded ahead of the Federal govt. I'd give them about the same marks as us.

Sweden is more interesting; whether or not you agree with their approach it at least has been considered and consistent. They have a lower death rate than us. It could go either way. I'd give them marginally better at the moment, but with much uncertainty. 

I'm really struggling to see anyone else who has had the time to respond and done worse than we have. Italy and Spain had weeks less to respond, but with about the same outcome. Ireland was in a very similar position to us, much better outcome. Ditto Germany. USA are crap, obviously, but no worse than us.


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> No, and I just had a chat with the manager about that.
> We don't have enough.
> I've got 6, one a day.


Not good once they get damp they are next to useless. If they don't have enough then you have to do the best you can


----------



## Yellow Fang (28 Apr 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> USA has a much lower death rate than us - many states responded ahead of the Federal govt. I'd give them about the same marks as us.
> 
> Sweden is more interesting; whether or not you agree with their approach it at least has been considered and consistent. They have a lower death rate than us. It could go either way. I'd give them marginally better at the moment, but with much uncertainty.
> 
> I'm really struggling to see anyone else who has had the time to respond and done worse than we have. Italy and Spain had weeks less to respond, but with about the same outcome. Ireland was in a very similar position to us, much better outcome. Ditto Germany. USA are crap, obviously, but no worse than us.



Turkey, we don't hear much about them. Erdogan has refused to do anything until recently.


----------



## matticus (28 Apr 2020)

How is Belarus getting on? (I'm enjoying their hockey matches)


----------



## vickster (28 Apr 2020)

Belgium seems to have quite a lot of deaths so far relative to population  and Spain


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Turkey, we don't hear much about them. Erdogan has refused to do anything until recently.



Dunno about Turkey. Greece has done magnificently, so I guess it's traditional that Turkey will do the exact opposite...


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

Well done Matt .... PPE shortage forcers trust to prioritise staff on racial grounds. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-52455233


----------



## Andy in Germany (28 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Belgium seems to have quite a lot of deaths so far relative to population  and Spain



Spain had less warning, and it could be just that Belgium is being honest...


----------



## vickster (28 Apr 2020)

I was commenting on the numbers, not the politics


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## mjr (28 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Belgium seems to have quite a lot of deaths so far relative to population  and Spain


Belgium is including all deaths in its headline reports. Its hospital death rate is slightly lower than the UK's. They seemed very much harmed by the scale of outbreak in France and the relaxed approaches taken in the Netherlands and the UK (whose TV is widely rebroadcast in Belgium).


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## Rusty Nails (28 Apr 2020)

It appears to me that it is far too difficult, given the limited information we have about the behaviour of the virus this early in its life, too be too definitive about how much the "league table" of death/infection rates is due to the different approaches of the various governments.

There are a range of factors, other than the government strategy/lockdown timings, including population density, rural/urban mix, age mix, cultural differences, attitudes to authority, poverty/deprivation levels, state/preparedness of national health services etc.

My own inexpert view is that a lot of our poor performance is due to a mix of: national/government complacency (of course we'll deal with it better than other countries), lack of clarity about early strategy, government concerns that strict restrictions would look too Nanny state, poor preparedness of NHS (in great part due to financial constraints/targets, but also to the bureaucratic, slow response of its management and PHE), shocking neglect of social services/care homes for the elderly.

I hope that, at the end of all this, the country really examines what sort of health/social care it really needs, and government and the people are honest about how much that will cost and how much they are going to be prepared to pay for it.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (28 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Face covering now recommend in Scotland
> https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-public-use-of-face-coverings/



That's a bit of an ambivalent statement there: the article merely says that they are recommending that people of Scotland _consider_ wearing a mask in some _limited_ situations.


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

Now is not a time for word games


----------



## Rusty Nails (28 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> That's a bit of an ambivalent statement there: the article merely says that they are recommending that people of Scotland _consider_ wearing a mask in some _limited_ situations.



I saw that bit of Sturgeon's briefing and it wasn't really a ringing endorsement of their use in public, just a lot of possible, if and maybe.


----------



## mjr (28 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now is not a time for word games


No, but it's not a time for misreporting either!


----------



## Rusty Nails (28 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now is not a time for word games



I disagree. The correct/precise use of words is critical in a First/Prime Minister's briefing on an important health announcement.


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

So is them knowing figures but they have a habit of not knowing them when it suits.


----------



## Andy in Germany (28 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> I was commenting on the numbers, not the politics



That's what I meant: The UK still only records hospital deaths.


----------



## mjr (28 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> That's what I meant: The UK still only records hospital deaths.


The daily briefing charts do also show an all-deaths figure, but it is of course well to the left of the hospital one, lagging at least a week behind and currently 17 days - see attachment for yesterday's. They also don't scale the graph by population, which is increasingly annoying as the USA death toll increases.


----------



## Rusty Nails (28 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> That's what I meant: The UK still only records hospital deaths.



If it's on the death certificate of someone who dies in a care home, or at home, it is recorded by the ONS. It is not as immediate as the reporting of hospital deaths, and depends on the primary cause of death recorded by the doctor.

Too much emphasis is given to the daily death rate announced by the government because news organisations love immediacy and controversy over long-term, meaningful accuracy.


----------



## mjr (28 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Too much emphasis is given to the daily death rate announced by the government because news organisations love immediacy and controversy over long-term, meaningful accuracy.


Indeed, part of the story should be that the more accurate figures are 17 days behind the government's preferred headline number. This should be shocking when even trivial data spreads more quickly than that.


----------



## Unkraut (28 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> I sympathise with the steaming up glasses problem, as the cotton masks I have do the same.


Now we see through glasses darkly ...

They are a bit of a pain, but worth it keep the rate down. I went to Media Markt today to buy a repeater, and only a few are allowed in at one go, and you ask a friendly staff member to get what you need rather than wander all over the shop. Worked quite well, and this reduced opening scheme is surely better than not being open at all.

I am coming round to the view that the govt must increasingly take the economic damage into account when deciding on relaxing restrictions, i.e. be a bit bolder without taking too much of a risk.


----------



## oldwheels (28 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> That's a bit of an ambivalent statement there: the article merely says that they are recommending that people of Scotland _consider_ wearing a mask in some _limited_ situations.


It is not necessarily a mask but I think just a covering of nose and mouth. Industrial rather than medical but somebody recommended making one from a vacuum cleaner bag cut to shape. The idea is to use this in potentially crowded situations such as shops and public transport. It seems not really to protect you but to protect others and stop any exhalations getting out into the atmosphere. This may be in preparation for use of better masks or perhaps with an eye to relaxing the lockdown later.


----------



## Milzy (28 Apr 2020)

My money is on a big decrease in two weeks then complacency will inevitably kick in dispite the warnings and it will spike back up again.


----------



## mjr (28 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> I sympatise with the steaming up glasses problem, as the cotton masks I have do the same. I'll need them at work as well I expect.


In case it helps: I find my cycling glasses (aviator-style) resist steaming up better than my office glasses (semi-frameless rectangles).


----------



## PK99 (28 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> If it's on the death certificate of someone who dies in a care home, or at home, it is recorded by the ONS.  It is not as immediate as the reporting of hospital deaths, and depends on the primary cause of death recorded by the doctor.
> 
> Too much emphasis is given to the daily death rate announced by the government because news organisations love immediacy and controversy over long-term, meaningful accuracy.




The two numbers are doing different things.

The total toll, including care homes is clearly important as ultimately we need to know the overall number. 

The hospital numbers of cases, ICU occupancy, and deaths act as a proxy measure of the effectiveness of lockdown in the control of the virus at wild in the general population. Including all causes, with the inevitable time lags and inconsistencies fudges and confuses that measure, and is measuring something quite different.

The data show : (inter alia)
1. Lockdown is working and controlling transmission in the general population.
2. The age, medical conditions, and vulnerabilities of people in care homes mean that controlling transmission there is much more difficult and the outcome is, sadly, worse than the general population.


----------



## Proto (28 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I disagree. The correct/precise use of words is critical in a First/Prime Minister's briefing on an important health announcement.


Someone should have advised Mr Trump of this.


----------



## Edwardoka (28 Apr 2020)

Proto said:


> Someone should have advised Mr Trump of this.


... but he knows words, he has the best words.


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

@oldwheels all you need to know re face covering in public 
https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/


----------



## Rusty Nails (28 Apr 2020)

PK99 said:


> The two numbers are doing different things.
> 
> The total toll, including care homes is clearly important as ultimately we need to know the overall number.
> 
> ...



Are age, medical conditions and vulnerabilities factors in transmission, or are they more likely to be factors in the seriousness of the infection once transmitted?

I thought the impact of transmission in care homes is more troublesome because of the proximity of people confined to the same premises, lack of mobility and the conditions in those homes including lack of trained medical staff and shortages of PPE. Those with dementia have even more problems as they do not have the ability to understand the need for social distancing, cleanliness and self-isolation.

They are also as much part of the general population as you and I.


----------



## Rocky (28 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> @oldwheels all you need to know re face covering in public
> https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/


Great article that  ......but I would say that wouldn’t I?


----------



## the snail (28 Apr 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Turkey, we don't hear much about them. Erdogan has refused to do anything until recently.


According to a friend in Turkey, they are not having a continuous lock-down, but regular two-day curfews. Presumably the idea is to maintain the economy, but slow down the spread of the virus to some extent. This was a week or two ago, I don't know how the situation has progressed.


----------



## tom73 (28 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Great article that  ......but I would say that wouldn’t I?


It's bookmarked i've passed it round that many times. 
Just waiting for the signed edition now


----------



## oldwheels (28 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> @oldwheels all you need to know re face covering in public
> https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/


Pretty much as I suggested I think with more academic bits. The proposed mask wearing is to protect others in case you are infected but not yet showing symptoms.


----------



## mjr (28 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> @oldwheels all you need to know re face covering in public
> https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/


I support public cloth masks but at least three things in that article make me deeply uncomfortable with it:
1. "Natural experiments are scientifically imperfect" and then it goes on to use comparing Austria and Czechia as an argument for mask-wearing!
2. "mask usage has been encouraged through laws" - if a law requires it, that isn't only encouragement!
3. its use of helmet laws as an example of an unpopular move that improves population well-being - although it's motorcycle helmets and I suspect the benefit of lighter less-polluting less-lethal-to-others vehicles isn't as compelling as the exercise benefits of cycling, it still tastes bad to me.


----------



## DaveReading (28 Apr 2020)

Milzy said:


> My money is on a big decrease in two weeks then complacency will inevitably kick in dispite the warnings and it will spike back up again.



You won't get very long odds on that bet. 

It's inevitable that (a) the restrictions will be eased soon (or else they will start to be widely ignored) and (b) as a consequence, the death rate will start to climb again.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (29 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> I support public cloth masks but at least three things in that article make me deeply uncomfortable with it:
> 1. "Natural experiments are scientifically imperfect" and then it goes on to use comparing Austria and Czechia as an argument for mask-wearing!
> 2. "mask usage has been encouraged through laws" - if a law requires it, that isn't only encouragement!
> 3. its use of helmet laws as an example of an unpopular move that improves population well-being - although it's motorcycle helmets and I suspect the benefit of lighter less-polluting less-lethal-to-others vehicles isn't as compelling as the exercise benefits of cycling, it still tastes bad to me.


Anecdotally, of course, this seems pretty academic. I have only gone out to do shopping for the last month but every time I go out I have been struck by how many people have chosen to cover their faces. I'd guess over 95% of the people in the supermarket queues have already chosen to wear masks without legal compunction. The exceptions I've noticed are young men, young couples and a good proportion of street workers, of the hi-vis brigade. I've found myself wondering where they've managed to source their face coverings - I simply wear a cycling buff over the mouth and nose. 

I've no idea how prevalent this is in other areas but it's almost the rule in SE London. If this is not the case elsewhere, I'd suggest considering the falling London covid-19 rates, and asking where's the harm? (Provided it's not depriving carers of their own access to protection.)


----------



## randynewmanscat (29 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I don't want to sound alarmist but there is a small but real chance this could be very serious indeed.


Turns out your warning was very correct.


----------



## DCLane (29 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Anectdotally, of course, this seems pretty academic. I have only gone out to do shopping for the last month but every time I go out I have been struck by how many people have chosen to cover their faces. I'd guess over 95% of the people in the supermarket queues have already chosen to wear masks without legal compunction. The exceptions I've noticed are young men, young couples and a good proportion of street workers, of the hi-vis brigade. I've found myself wondering where they've managed to source their face coverings - I simply wear a cycling buff over the mouth and nose.
> 
> I've no idea how prevalent this is in other areas but it's almost the rule in SE London. If this is not the case elsewhere, I'd suggest considering the falling London covid-19 rates, and asking where's the harm? (Provided it's not depriving carers of their own access to protection.)



My son, who's in Lincoln still at university, says almost everyone there has one. He doesn't.

Whereas here, in my little bit of West Yorkshire, there are very few wearing masks.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (29 Apr 2020)

DCLane said:


> My son, who's in Lincoln still at university, says almost everyone there has one. He doesn't.
> 
> Whereas here, in my little bit of West Yorkshire, there are very few wearing masks.


Interesting variation. It would be interesting to see whether there were any correlation between mask use, albeit voluntary, and infection rates.


----------



## tom73 (29 Apr 2020)

So testing has been opened up even more from today. 
Who can have one and when has been so odd hock hard and a total mess. 
Anyone not included anymore? 
Went past one of the pop up test sites yesterday. Like every thing else to do with testing it was a total shambles.


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Interesting variation. It would be interesting to see whether there were any correlation between mask use, albeit voluntary, and infection rates.


I suspect it may correlate with population density. I've seen no-one else wearing out in the villages here, but I've not been in town in about a week, so they might be wearing there. I'll ask on a local forum.


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

So apparently That Hancock announced at yesterday's sermon that the UK is finally going to include home deaths in the daily figures, but oddly his speech hasn't appeared on the usual gov.uk page. https://www.thejournal.ie/uk-covid19-deaths-care-homes-5086681-Apr2020/


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

Also yesterday's sermon had Deputy Chief Scientific Adviser Professor Dame McLean say about public general mask-wearing: "SAGE has put so much effort into looking at this question but the answer is clear that the evidence is weak and the effect is small"


----------



## nickyboy (29 Apr 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Turns out your warning was very correct.


I wish I'd been totally wrong 

My attention is now focussed on what may be the situation in the coming years. It's clear that we will get the first wave under control like almost all other countries and we will have a staged release of lockdown 

But what about 2021,2022,2023?

No vaccine til 2021 at the earliest. And loads of evidence to show that making an effective vaccine is really difficult. Plus we don't understand how long immunity may last etc etc

I'm no Coronavirus Nostradamus but FWIW I think we're living with some Coronavirus effect on our lives for years to come


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (29 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Also yesterday's sermon had Deputy Chief Scientific Adviser Professor Dame McLean say about public general mask-wearing: "SAGE has put so much effort into looking at this question but the answer is clear that the evidence is weak and the effect is small"


Which could be more strategic than scientific if there's a concern about medical masks being diverted for general population use.


----------



## PeteXXX (29 Apr 2020)

My company has announced that it has withdrawn the offer of testing key staff due to changes in government policy (they are working on how to help, though). 
All we have, now, is a link to the gov site that is only, apparently, for key workers who have shown symptoms or are self isolating. 
I've got more chance of getting my order, or an answer, from Suttons Seeds!!


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## Levo-Lon (29 Apr 2020)

We have these waterproof masks @tom73 

Wear all day, we have enough for 3 months at one per staff per day.
Not very pleasant things, some staff me included may look at buying something better.
But that might be difficult


----------



## MarkF (29 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Well done Matt .... PPE shortage forcers trust to prioritise staff on racial grounds.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-52455233



It's via seniority too, upstairs and downstairs if you like, in a "dirty" area, all the medics & nurses are fully garbed, I am half garbed with a lot of skin exposed......for often an unecessarily long time. I am ok with it tbh, they are far more important, but my eyes tell me that the shortage of PPE is not the governments fault alone. When you have porters taking control and refusing to do tasks unless systems that they suggest (to reduce PPE waste) are implemented, then things have gone badly wrong and others are hiding...........


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Which could be more strategic than scientific if there's a concern about medical masks being diverted for general population use.


What's the S of SAGE?


----------



## MarkF (29 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> We have these waterproof masks @tom73
> 
> Wear all day, we have enough for 3 months at one per staff per day.
> Not very pleasant things, some staff me included may look at buying something better.
> But that might be difficult



They are my favourite, you should be able to mould the upper wire to your nose, unless it's a weird shape, to stop movement but they don't offer much protection, the sides are always gaping. I wear them because they are the comfiest, the easiest to remove & replace and they stop you touching your face as much as the others.

I will use them to move a virus confirmed patient, but often regret it if they start coughing.
I wear them for 2 hours max, IMO they are hazardous after that, especially if you are hot & bothered. If I wore one all day then I'd expect to get ill.
I will not wear them if I am in a "dirty" area, or alongside a virus confirmed patient for any length of time, I want an FFP3 one (not 3M ) or I'll walk.


----------



## johnblack (29 Apr 2020)

Interesting article on Bloomberg today which confirms that Cummings was quite involved in the discussions at SAGE but was trying to push them to commit to a lock down and pushed for faster action https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-s-johnson-pushed-scientists-to-back-lockdown


----------



## tom73 (29 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> We have these waterproof masks @tom73
> 
> Wear all day, we have enough for 3 months at one per staff per day.
> Not very pleasant things, some staff me included may look at buying something better.
> But that might be difficult


They are water resistant type once they get damp they need changing. You may get 4 hours tops out of them if they stay clean that is.
If the pressure on the back of your ears is a problem using a paper clip helps. Or If you know anyone that knits some made Mrs 73 one of these. When she not in full PPE that is.


----------



## Rocky (29 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Also yesterday's sermon had Deputy Chief Scientific Adviser Professor Dame McLean say about public general mask-wearing: "SAGE has put so much effort into looking at this question but the answer is clear that the evidence is weak and the effect is small"


They haven’t put much effort into looking at the evidence and are looking purely for RCTs. Government is currently being guided by ‘libertarians’ such as Robert Dingwall who has a track record of opposing any intervention that compels the public to do something. He was against compulsory ‘flu jabs for health care professionals a while back. Sadly much of the government’s approach to public face masks is being driven by (i) ideology and (ii) fears that it will cause shortages for HCP.


----------



## randynewmanscat (29 Apr 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> We have these waterproof masks @tom73
> 
> Wear all day, we have enough for 3 months at one per staff per day.
> Not very pleasant things, some staff me included may look at buying something better.
> But that might be difficult


I think if you browse and ask around for long enough you will lay hands on some decent ones, I know the health services are having to work very hard but they want trucks full of such products.
I managed to find N95 masks at a pharmacy not far away. I had to order them as any shop stock was bought instantly from the counter. The pharmacy had a limit of ten per customer order so as not to encourage scalping or hoarding. Regular price they said so no gouging apparent yet. I could reorder within 7 days if I needed but I barely go out, 5 is enough for now.


----------



## tom73 (29 Apr 2020)

The same Robert Dingwall who wants beer gardens open and says no point to social distancing ? 
Science has been sidelined before due to PPE shortage as BBC panorama showed.


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

Fox News suspected of being slightly biased in its polls about Trump's handling of the outbreak:


----------



## tom73 (29 Apr 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I think if you browse and ask around for long enough you will lay hands on some decent ones, I know the health services are having to work very hard but they want trucks full of such products.
> I managed to find N95 masks at a pharmacy not far away. I had to order them as any shop stock was bought instantly from the counter. The pharmacy had a limit of ten per customer order so as not to encourage scalping or hoarding. Regular price they said so no gouging apparent yet. I could reorder within 7 days if I needed but I barely go out, 5 is enough for now.


why do you need N95 masks? Are you doing high risk AGP when you pop out for the milk ?


----------



## Rusty Nails (29 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Fox News suspected of being slightly biased in its polls about Trump's handling of the outbreak:
> View attachment 518720



The problem with this is that Fox News and Trump are so awful it is impossible to tell whether this is a joke or not.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (29 Apr 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> They haven’t put much effort into looking at the evidence and are looking purely for RCTs. Government is currently being guided by ‘libertarians’ such as Robert Dingwall who has a track record of opposing any intervention that compels the public to do something. He was against compulsory ‘flu jabs for health care professionals a while back. Sadly much of the government’s approach to public face masks is being driven by (i) ideology and (ii) fears that it will cause shortages for HCP.


Just checking: RCT = Randomised Controlled Trials?


----------



## fossyant (29 Apr 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> I've got more chance of getting my order, or an answer, from Suttons Seeds!!



You too.


----------



## tom73 (29 Apr 2020)

Suttons seeds is not what it once was.


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The problem with this is that Fox News and Trump are so awful it is impossible to tell whether this is a joke or not.


Sadly it seems genuine. That's a screen capture of German TV station ZDF who reported it as an example of US media bias, as you might be able to tell by the source credit ("Quelle" = source) overtyped bottom right, as well as the German translation subtitles (although it seems "Superb?" is the same in German!)


----------



## Rocky (29 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Just checking: RCT = Randomised Controlled Trials?


Yes - which are seen as the gold standard for new drug and other medical intervention research (such as a new surgery technique). The problem is that the few small scale RCTs on mask use have been looking at the impact on the wearer and not people the wearer comes into contact with. So in a situation where your mask protects me, and my mask protects you, there is zero RCT evidence. But more importantly, there's a lot of lab science which looks at how viruses are transmitted in the air through water droplets from the nose and mouth, but all of this is being ignored by SAGE and the government. Also, the WHO is being really naughty - it recommends that the public wear face masks in time of pandemic flu but not for COVID. If anything, given the increased infectiousness of Covid compared with flu, their recommendations should be the other way round.

There is a big debate about the limitations of RCTs in informing public policy - what works in a controlled clinical trial might not work in a public setting for a whole load of reasons.

The irony for me is that the government recommends that we sneeze into a hanky (or our elbow if we don't have a hanky) - try searching for an RCT on the efficacy of sneezing into your elbow. I don't think you'll find one - it's just plain common sense.


----------



## tom73 (29 Apr 2020)

RCT don't always lead to better outcomes either.


----------



## kingrollo (29 Apr 2020)

Not sure about starmers idea of pushing for an exit policy - that just puts the end of lockdown in people's mind - and people think ah well the lock down is nearly over - I will just pop and see me mates !


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not sure about starmers idea of pushing for an exit policy - that just puts the end of lockdown in people's mind - and people think ah well the lock down is nearly over - I will just pop and see me mates !


If only a few do it, government will probably like it because it keeps us ticking towards the "herd immunity" idea!


----------



## kingrollo (29 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> If only a few do it, government will probably like it because it keeps us ticking towards the "herd immunity" idea!


Indeed !!!
IMO the lockdown isn't being enforced. If shops etc start opening the government aren't going to clampdown on them.

I don't think the gov want a big announcement - the lockdown is over - they would rather people just trickle back to normality - it clears the govt if the infections start to rise.


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> RCT don't always lead to better outcomes either.


Well, no, but isn't that why trials are done?

The trouble with "common sense" is that it's often neither common or sense. People may laugh at Trump's bleach injections, but it wasn't many weeks ago that the "common sense" idea of killing c19 by gargling with various useless or harmful things was spreading wildly on social media.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (29 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not sure about starmers idea of pushing for an exit policy - that just puts the end of lockdown in people's mind - and people think ah well the lock down is nearly over - I will just pop and see me mates !



Not really, if lockdown is seen as lasting forever with no end and no exit then it will be harder for us folk to take. It's when there is no exit and no strategy that you begin to lose faith that the government knows what it is doing in this pandemic. This lockdown is based on a single model from Fergie, so what does that model say about different exit points and strategies? Which options are being considered and why?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not sure about starmers idea of pushing for an exit policy - that just puts the end of lockdown in people's mind - and people think ah well the lock down is nearly over - I will just pop and see me mates !



I understand where you're coming from but strongly disagree. There is not one way out of this, and there should be an opportunity to hear the options and debate them, not suffer a steady stream of diktats sent down arbitrarily from no. 10 over the next year or two.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (29 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not sure about starmers idea of pushing for an exit policy - that just puts the end of lockdown in people's mind - and people think ah well the lock down is nearly over - I will just pop and see me mates !


A controlled exit would be preferable to a slow collapse of the lockdown. A plan for a gradual relaxation with an option for reversing this is required.


----------



## kingrollo (29 Apr 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> A controlled exit would be preferable to a slow collapse of the lockdown. A plan for a gradual relaxation with an option for reversing this is required.


Yes that would make sense - but I can sense the slow collapse happening.


----------



## tom73 (29 Apr 2020)

A few days ago the public could now submit questions for the daily briefing. Been told by some of the YP I've worked with they can't you have to be 18 or older. As one YP put it the virus effects everyone no matter what your age. 
Given the standard of questions we have since day one I can't help thinking YP probably would ask much better ones than some so called grown up's.


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> A few days ago the public could now submit questions for the daily briefing. Been told by some of the YP I've worked with they can't you have to be 18 or older. As one YP put it the virus effects everyone no matter what your age.
> Given the standard of questions we have since day one I can't help thinking YP probably would ask much better ones than some so called grown up's.


The age limit is probably because Boris is terrified of being asked "Daddy?"


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

Belgium is to issue every citizen (I just double-checked and it says "citizen" not "resident" which seems unusual) with a reusable anti-infecting-others mask and at least two filters before the end of lockdown. Use will be compulsory on public transport and possibly some other situations. https://www.belgium.be/en/news/2020/coronavirus

Unusually, it's not the health minister leading, but the defence minister. The Army have been tasked with purchase or manufacture and distribution. Why not health minister Maggie de Block? She's just been on TV again saying shoot like "masks give a false sense of security" so it seems she's not trusted to deliver decent masks!


----------



## Rusty Nails (29 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> A few days ago the public could now submit questions for the daily briefing. Been told by some of the YP I've worked with they can't you have to be 18 or older. As one YP put it the virus effects everyone no matter what your age.
> Given the standard of questions we have since day one I can't help thinking YP probably would ask much better ones than some so called grown up's.



Never mind the YP (??), as a much OP I want to know if the self-isolation is going to continue until the end of the year for us. I need to stock up on the hair dye to see if I can get away with pretending I'm in my 60s when I'm out on my bike. My face mask snood will hide some of the wrinkles. .


----------



## Rocky (29 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Well, no, but isn't that why trials are done?
> 
> The trouble with "common sense" is that it's often neither common or sense. People may laugh at Trump's bleach injections, but it wasn't many weeks ago that the "common sense" idea of killing c19 by gargling with various useless or harmful things was spreading wildly on social media.


RCTs when done well for the right research question are the gold standard. But there’s poor research - poor design, poor research governance, and inappropriate use for certain questions. If it’s a simple PICO (what group of Patients, defined Intervention, defined Comparison and defined Outcome) the an RCT might work.


----------



## Inertia (29 Apr 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The problem with this is that Fox News and Trump are so awful it is impossible to tell whether this is a joke or not.


Looks real, also Wuhan Chinese virus 

Its at least a month old though

https://www.mediamatters.org/lou-do...oronavirus-has-been-superb-great-or-very-good


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (29 Apr 2020)

Just an update from Edinburgh. Looking out the window and when out for the exercise walk I can see that traffic has dramatically increased In the last week to about 60-80% pre-lockdown levels. No idea why the sudden increase - are more people going out to the supermarket and DIY store all of a sudden? But it does feel as if people are starting to quietly work around the spirit of the lockdown


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (29 Apr 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> Just an update from Edinburgh. Looking out the window and when out for the exercise walk I can see that traffic has dramatically increased In the last week to about 60-80% pre-lockdown levels. No idea why the sudden increase - are more people going out to the supermarket and DIY store all of a sudden? But it does feel as if people are starting to quietly work around the spirit of the lockdown


Seeing the same in Stirling and my sister tells me traffic from Fife to Dundee has increased a lot over the last few days.

I think people see headlines like "Government plans to ease lockdown" and hear "Lockdown eased"


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (29 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Seeing the same in Stirling and my sister tells me traffic from Fife to Dundee has increased a lot over the last few days.
> 
> I think people see headlines like "Government plans to ease lockdown" and hear "Lockdown eased"



Perhaps that’s it - and I think others have mentioned something similar is happening down south. I did wonder if differentials between England and Scotland would mean different timescales for easing the lockdown but it seems that there’s little difference to attitudes across the country?


----------



## PK99 (29 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I think people see headlines like "Government plans to ease lockdown" and hear "Lockdown eased"



That's the problem with pre discussion


----------



## Ming the Merciless (29 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Seeing the same in Stirling and my sister tells me traffic from Fife to Dundee has increased a lot over the last few days.
> 
> I think people see headlines like "Government plans to ease lockdown" and hear "Lockdown eased"



Or self employed said they could manage 5 weeks but certainly not a year long lockdown.


----------



## slowmotion (29 Apr 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> Just an update from Edinburgh. Looking out the window and when out for the exercise walk I can see that traffic has dramatically increased In the last week to about 60-80% pre-lockdown levels. No idea why the sudden increase - are more people going out to the supermarket and DIY store all of a sudden? But it does feel as if people are starting to quietly work around the spirit of the lockdown


In London, I thought pretty much the same at the weekend, but now that the rain has returned, it's been a whole lot quieter.


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

Inertia said:


> Looks real, also Wuhan Chinese virus
> 
> Its at least a month old though


Though? The date was literally on the screenshot. 18 March. Taken from a ZDF broadcast last weekend.


----------



## mjr (29 Apr 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I think people see headlines like "Government plans to ease lockdown" and hear "Lockdown eased"


Do you think Brits are more stupid than residents of neighbouring countries that discuss unlocking like adults?


----------



## steve292 (29 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> Do you think Brits are more stupid than residents of neighbouring countries that discuss unlocking like adults?


Yes I do. Well, maybe not more stupid but easily led.


----------



## tom73 (30 Apr 2020)

Last week staff got given a personal pair of reusable eye protection.
Mrs 73 showed me them this morning I ask you what good are they?
If you wear glasses they don't even fit over them.
You get better at school.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (30 Apr 2020)

Here in the Glasgow outskirts lock down has never really happened.
Up until last week there was less motorized traffic, yes, but people still went out and about, mainly shopping because there is nowhere else to go, of course.
Lots of elderly still going out, even though they get assistance, for fresh air, they say, but must go to a busy shop for said fresh air 
Quite a few elderly refusing assistance too: I volunteer in the community, get to talk to a lot of people, most would go about as normal if the government hadn't set up restrictions.
City centre is deserted, but once non essential shops start opening, public transport increases a bit, town go back to semi normal, even without the catering outlets open.
I think here the majority of people tend to see the virus emergency as something dreamed up from the powers above to make their lives difficult.
Imo, this is because here in Scotland we have had (so far!) a lot less deaths than England, if people are not affected personally they don't really care. Contagion is an abstract concept to them.
I see key workers assisting folks with various disabilities taking out their clients, queuing up for the shops in Rutherglen main street, I see buses full of elderly people, I see car traffic increase, I see shop workers mainly not respecting social distance among colleagues.
Imo, this is not going to end up well.


----------



## tom73 (30 Apr 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Here in the Glasgow outskirts lock down has never really happened.
> Up until last week there was less motorized traffic, yes, but people still went out and about, mainly shopping because there is nowhere else to go, of course.
> Lots of elderly still going out, even though they get assistance, for fresh air, they say, but must go to a busy shop for said fresh air
> Quite a few elderly refusing assistance too: I volunteer in the community, get to talk to a lot of people, most would go about as normal if the government hadn't set up restrictions.
> ...



I was talking to someone a few days ago who has a small courier company. He's now part of the local effect to get food and stuff out to ones who are shielding at home. They are working out of large call centre he often phones up people asks to speak to them "oh they are not in they've nipped out for some ..... He also often get's no reply only to phone latter and get told oh yes I went out for a paper. 
He explains they have been advised to stay in and he can get them what ever they need. But they tell him yes but "I still need to go and get my paper" 
He not the only one having trouble most in the call centre have same problem. He's spoke to other's working in other area's of the county it happening all over the place. 
Sadly I think we are heading headlong into a new outbreak.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sadly I think we are heading headlong into a new outbreak.


It may be that they never changed their behaviour in the first place so it's not part of a new outbreak, just a factor in the current one.


----------



## MarkF (30 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Last week staff got given a personal pair of reusable eye protection.
> Mrs 73 showed me them this morning I ask you what good are they?
> If you wear glasses they don't even fit over them.
> You get better at school.
> ...



God, those are poor quality, I won't wear them. They don't fit anybody. They are too wide for most heads so they are constantly slipping down causing you to touch your face. The clip on eye "shields" can pop off the lugs at any time, the lugs then snap off or bend when you try to reassemble them, the hospital is littered with 1000's of used for seconds and never to be used at all examples. You pick up crap like this and it's funny, but not funny, why am I being provided with this shoot and witnessing utter PPE incompetence every day? 

I grabbed the first decent pair I saw a few weeks back as I knew they'd run out. I've still got them, I won't hand them in for cleaning, I do it myself after every task. I am responsible for them, it's that simple.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Apr 2020)

Just been talking with a Swedish colleague from Lund. The Swedish lockdown really is chickensh1t !

She pointed me at this article. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...nure-park-deter-visitors-coronavirus-lockdown


----------



## tom73 (30 Apr 2020)

MarkF said:


> God, those are poor quality, I won't wear them. They don't fit anybody. They are too wide for most heads so they are constantly slipping down causing you to touch your face. The clip on eye "shields" can pop off the lugs at any time, the lugs then snap off or bend when you try to reassemble them, the hospital is littered with 1000's of used for seconds and never to be used at all examples. You pick up crap like this and it's funny, but not funny, why am I being provided with this shoot and witnessing utter PPE incompetence every day?
> 
> I grabbed the first decent pair I saw a few weeks back as I knew they'd run out. I've still got them, I won't hand them in for cleaning, I do it myself after every task. I am responsible for them, it's that simple.



Totally agree it's just total crap. Try doing even basic stuff wearing them never mind CPR you've not a hope.


----------



## tom73 (30 Apr 2020)

Forget the race for a vaccine "divine cleansing oil" is all you need. £91 all in 
Prevents and cures Covid-19 if taken three times a day 
Not sure saying your "convinced" it works will get passed the MHRA.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52480133
Sadly some will blindly believe it works.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Or self employed said they could manage 5 weeks but certainly not a year long lockdown.


What you mean they run out of jobs on the side !


----------



## kingrollo (30 Apr 2020)

So a statement from no 10 says no early release from lockdown.....

But shops re open anyway and govt turns blind eye.

They really are saying one thing but doing another...


----------



## vickster (30 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So a statement from no 10 says no early release from lockdown.....
> 
> But shops re open anyway and govt turns blind eye.
> 
> They really are saying one thing but doing another...


Which shops? Ones that were banned from opening or ones that decided to close for a bit even though they didn’t have to under the rules (eg B&Q, Greggs)


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Forget the race for a vaccine "divine cleansing oil" is all you need. £91 all in
> Prevents and cures Covid-19 if taken three times a day
> Not sure saying your "convinced" it works will get passed the MHRA.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52480133
> Sadly some will blindly believe it works.


Not the only ones - https://853.london/2020/03/20/coron...rshippers-they-would-be-safe-during-epidemic/ - though this one did stop its services.


----------



## mjr (30 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Which shops? Ones that were banned from opening or ones that decided to close for a bit even though they didn’t have to under the rules (eg B&Q, Greggs)


Also, I think some new permitted shops are opening because it's a last-ditch attempt by some locked-down small businesses to avoid going bankrupt.

It's not done them much good today, though. I only saw one other shopper. Is it because it's raining? Does this mean there are loads of people who are "I ain't scared of no coronavirus so I will keep going shopping - eek! Rain! I'm not going out in that!"


----------



## Andy in Germany (30 Apr 2020)

mjr said:


> So apparently That Hancock announced at yesterday's sermon that the UK is finally going to include home deaths in the daily figures, but oddly his speech hasn't appeared on the usual gov.uk page. https://www.thejournal.ie/uk-covid19-deaths-care-homes-5086681-Apr2020/



I hadn't realised that and wondered why there's a jump in the figures today.



tom73 said:


> I was talking to someone a few days ago who has a small courier company. He's now part of the local effect to get food and stuff out to ones who are shielding at home. They are working out of large call centre he often phones up people asks to speak to them "oh they are not in they've nipped out for some ..... He also often get's no reply only to phone latter and get told oh yes I went out for a paper.
> He explains they have been advised to stay in and he can get them what ever they need. But they tell him yes but "I still need to go and get my paper"
> He not the only one having trouble most in the call centre have same problem. He's spoke to other's working in other area's of the county it happening all over the place.
> Sadly I think we are heading headlong into a new outbreak.



This is a really tricky one. For people's mental health they need some interaction, otherwise we'll have a psychological and/or health crisis on our hands, if we haven't already. Staying at home, especially for elderly people could lead to a vicious cycle of self re-enforcing depression, to say nothing of issues for people with alzheimers or dementia. 

But as you say, going out just makes the current situation worse. 

From the point of view of the virus and public health, the answer is obvious, but from mental health it's much more difficult.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (30 Apr 2020)

I walked to shop today and no queue outside in rain. Walked straight in. Last week in the sun I had to join a queue of 20 mins to get in! Rain puts off these born again exercisers as well.


----------



## Andy in Germany (30 Apr 2020)

Facemasks are now compulsory in shops and on public transport here so I got Beautiful Daughter one in her favourite colour:








I didn't know there was that much pink in the entire world...

Also, that window needs cleaning...


----------



## Ming the Merciless (30 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What you mean they run out of jobs on the side !



Nope they have a choice of going bust or starting up again and doing some work.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (30 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Facemasks are now compulsory in shops and on public transport here so I got Beautiful Daughter one in her favourite colour:
> 
> 
> View attachment 518978
> ...



I have lots of buffs should the need arise.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> Which shops? Ones that were banned from opening or ones that decided to close for a bit even though they didn’t have to under the rules (eg B&Q, Greggs)


Doesn't really matter - shops that were shut a couple of weeks back are now open.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> I hadn't realised that and wondered why there's a jump in the figures today.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Mental health has been neglected for years (and I speak from considerable experience) - all of sudden it's an emergency.


----------



## Andy in Germany (30 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Mental health has been neglected for years (and I speak from considerable experience) - all of sudden it's an emergency.



I suspect it will be neglected some more whatever happens, but yes, you're right.


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (30 Apr 2020)

Been watching the PMs speech just now - it’s all quite hopeful with the R confirmed as being below 1 nationwide so I do wonder if lockdown is soon to be at least partially lifted.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (30 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Doesn't really matter - shops that were shut a couple of weeks back are now open.



Of course it matters if claims are being made lockdown is being ignored by these business, when perhaps it isn’t. If they are entitled to be open they are not ignoring it are they?


----------



## Salty seadog (30 Apr 2020)

Well tonight's no. 10 briefing where they are now taking questions from the public which they claim to have not seen prior to being asked, Kate from Liverpool was invited to ask her question but they had no connection to her.

Boris without missing a beat saying 

'what Kate was going to ask was yadda yadda yadda'.

How did he know that, he must be psychic.

Or someone's telling porkies.


----------



## Adam4868 (30 Apr 2020)

Johnson what absolute bollox ! Did he actually just say we've exceeded the tradgedy we've seen in other parts of the world ? Delusional !


----------



## tom73 (30 Apr 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> I hadn't realised that and wondered why there's a jump in the figures today.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes it's a real difficult one to balance a lot has gone into making sure people have food. But not as much a national effort into keeping the mental health going. Some good stuff at a local level and some national stuff has been coming out too. But often it's via use of tech which for many is not in reach. Cams Will also be taking a beating due to all this too not much coming out for that. A lot more needs doing for sure at all levels. Most of the examples i've been hearing are more down to they don't see the point and are going out just because as apposed to taking a walk 1st thing or in evening in a way that's safe just to keep the mind well.


----------



## tom73 (30 Apr 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Johnson what absolute bollox ! Did he actually just say we've exceeded the tradgedy we've seen in other parts of the world ? Delusional !



That was more to do with referring to ICU not being over whelmed which due to a lot of hard work. From the NHS and most of use playing by the rules has been achieved. The real test is yet to come with the opening up of lock down and once surgery starts up again. 
The effect on the NHS will last much longer than most other areas even long after a vaccine is found.
That's not taking away from the fact that everything else is a total mess mind you.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Of course it matters if claims are being made lockdown is being ignored by these business, when perhaps it isn’t. If they are entitled to be open they are not ignoring it are they?


I meant in terms of number of shops opened. That figure has gone up.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> That was more to do with referring to ICU not being over whelmed which due to a lot of hard work. From the NHS and most of use playing by the rules has been achieved. The real test is yet to come with the opening up of lock down and once surgery starts up again.
> The effect on the NHS will last much longer than most other areas even long after a vaccine is found.
> That's not taking away from the fact that everything else is a total mess mind you.


TBF the hospital I work at - never ran out of ICU beds. Although it did get very close one weekend.


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## tom73 (30 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> TBF the hospital I work at - never ran out of ICU beds. Although it did get very close one weekend.


Most got away with it but some came very close. Still not out the woods yet much of this depends on enough people carrying on plain by the rules.


----------



## mjr (30 Apr 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I walked to shop today and no queue outside in rain. Walked straight in. Last week in the sun I had to join a queue of 20 mins to get in! Rain puts off these born again exercisers as well.


Still quite a few exercisers out here today despite the rain, including a walker on a C road that I don't remember ever seeing a walker on before. Long may this continue!

What annoyed me about the rain was that I intended to ride home a new way through the forest edge, but the skies opened and I've no idea how well-drained that route is, so it'll have to wait!


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## mjr (30 Apr 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I meant in terms of number of shops opened. That figure has gone up.


Good! It'll reduce the queues and overcrowding and maybe they'll be better at keeping supplies coming than the shambolic ones!


----------



## kingrollo (30 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> Most got away with it but some came very close. Still not out the woods yet much of this depends on enough people carrying on plain by the rules.


Bottom line is though that 30% of people admitted to hospital with covid 19 die. Unless we find better treatment s that will continue. That's not a critiscm of anyone - that's just the world we are living in.


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## flake99please (30 Apr 2020)

I wonder if the country reaches its target of 100,000 tests today? I will take a guess at around 60k.


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## tom73 (30 Apr 2020)

If like many you will be clapping tonight just also take a moment to reflect on the health and social care workers we have sadly been lost. 
Which sadly now stands at 156. That's 156 families grieving , 156 dedicated and caring individuals lost. 
They come for all area of health and social care many classed as low risk many expected to work without the right PPE. 
But they carried on going the job because they cared sadly the state did not return the favour.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Apr 2020)

flake99please said:


> I wonder if the country reaches its target of 100,000 tests today? I will take a guess at around 60k.


I believe they've been busting a gut to get just over 80,000, a figure that will last one day. There was a minister, justice, I think, who was going around briefing something along the lines that it was necessary to promise undeliverables to be able to deliver something substantially less than promised or some other twisted form of logic.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Apr 2020)

These revised dates of deaths match my suspicions: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-by-time-uk-reported-first-coronavirus-death


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## Milzy (30 Apr 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> These revised dates of deaths match my suspicions: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-by-time-uk-reported-first-coronavirus-death


Yet people are licking the government's boots saying they're heros. They've got blood on their hands. It's not good enough. It's all good and well saying hindsights a wonderful thing blah blah.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Apr 2020)

Expect Hospitals to be dealing with covid 19 patients for 18 months.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Apr 2020)

Milzy said:


> Yet people are licking the government's boots saying they're heros. They've got blood on their hands. It's not good enough. It's all good and well saying hindsights a wonderful thing blah blah.


I know, how can it be hindsight ? - we had warnings from WHO and an advance viewing in Italy ?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Apr 2020)

Milzy said:


> Yet people are licking the government's boots saying they're heros. They've got blood on their hands. It's not good enough. It's all good and well saying hindsights a wonderful thing blah blah.


Part of the blame has to rest with the NHS reporting system, which appears to have been in such a pitiable state that Victorians would have been ashamed of it.


----------



## Rusty Nails (30 Apr 2020)

The leaders of the constituent countries of the UK say they are following the advice of their scientists.

Wales has a different approach to testing than England. Whose scientists should I trust more, not that I have any choice in the matter?

I believe the leaders temper their following of the advice after they have balanced it against the resources and capabilities they have.


----------



## randynewmanscat (1 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> why do you need N95 masks? Are you doing high risk AGP when you pop out for the milk ?


No, the pharmacy just said we have these, we don't know when the cheap ones are back in, our branches in the north are taking them all would you like to order some of these.


----------



## randynewmanscat (1 May 2020)

Some light for me, unless things change drastically my playpen is to be expanded on the 11th of May. The detail is to be fleshed out in the days before the 11th but I will have to stay in my department and the bars, cafes and restaurants that make life social will not be considered until June. I personally doubt they will be allowed to open in June. The south west has largely dodged the horror that was visited on the north east, Paris, Grand Est.


----------



## randynewmanscat (1 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Forget the race for a vaccine "divine cleansing oil" is all you need. £91 all in
> Prevents and cures Covid-19 if taken three times a day
> Not sure saying your "convinced" it works will get passed the MHRA.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52480133
> Sadly some will blindly believe it works.


Probably less harmful than the bleach solution being sold by the disgusting and truly vile Alex Jones in the USA.


----------



## tom73 (1 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> No, the pharmacy just said we have these, we don't know when the cheap ones are back in, our branches in the north are taking them all would you like to order some of these.


Ok cool 
You can use a simple cloth one plenty of "how to" on youtube a simple buff is fine too. You can find plenty of sites selling cloth ones too. 
If you are worried some like justlush make them with a pocket for filters. 
Cloth ones are more comfy and you can get some cool ones if what something a bit different. 
Also be a lot cheeper we are likely to need them for some time yet.


----------



## tom73 (1 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Probably less harmful than the bleach solution being sold by the disgusting and truly vile Alex Jones in the USA.


Well very true sadly one will kill you but the other is likely to kill others.


----------



## icowden (1 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Part of the blame has to rest with the NHS reporting system, which appears to have been in such a pitiable state that Victorians would have been ashamed of it.



Some interesting things about this. As you know hospital Trusts vary widely in their finances and the number of staff available to their reporting arm. They generally have a reasonable number in order to manage tariffs and payment by results, but they are fighting to get data out of systems that are usually quite old. - plus the Covid work is extra to the normal workload. The National Programme for IT was so disjointed that only some Trusts remained with their chosen supplier and interoperability was very hit and miss. Some Trusts are now trying to rectify this by purchasing super systems. At the moment however, particularly for acute care, Hospitals are very paper driven and it can take a while to get information into the databases that they are using.

Scotland took a different approach and the Government purchased national contracts so all hospitals / gps / community Trusts use the same software. This makes it much easier to get data out.

Now, even when you have data, you then have to prepare the data and submit to NHS England. They in turn have to collate it, analyse it and report on it to the Government. So there are a number of hurdles to jump over to get daily reporting.


----------



## randynewmanscat (1 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Totally agree it's just total crap. Try doing even basic stuff wearing them never mind CPR you've not a hope.


My occasional neighbour popped down to weed and mow his lawns, unknown to him I had already done it for him. He is a GP with a practice in the western suburbs of Paris and has been doing two days a week on a Covid ward in the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital. He showed me photos of him and colleagues in their protection and no two were the same, mostly ad hoc and improvised. He uses a Stihl visor just like the ones he and I use when brushcutting, anti-fog, anti-glare lexan, stiff, light and comfortable to wear for hours.
I asked him if it was sweaty working in plastic clothes, what do you think was his reply. He explained that the visors provided were wobbly garbage that fogged up and became unclipped from the headband and the headband was like a saw blade. His colleagues sought their own visors out.
I am too polite to have asked what reason he put on his attestation to travel 170km to relax for two days and cut grass but as he is a docteur he is probably seen as the nearest thing to a living deity at the moment and is invisible to police.


----------



## randynewmanscat (1 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Ok cool
> You can use a simple cloth one plenty of "how to" on youtube a simple buff is fine too. You can find plenty of sites selling cloth ones too.
> If you are worried some like justlush make them with a pocket for filters.
> Cloth ones are more comfy and you can get some cool ones if what something a bit different.
> Also be a lot cheeper we are likely to need them for some time yet.


For some time yet. Depressing but true.
I am a dab hand at machine sewing, taught by a patient Mum a lifetime ago so I should crack on with making some home brew ones before the ones I bought run out. The government here say that masks will be available to all and sundry as the confinement is eased, we shall see.


----------



## tom73 (1 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> For some time yet. Depressing but true.
> I am a dab hand at machine sewing, taught by a patient Mum a lifetime ago so I should crack on with making some home brew ones before the ones I bought run out. The government here say that masks will be available to all and sundry as the confinement is eased, we shall see.



Cool well have a look round plenty of pattens about. 
If your having to wear one may as well be comfy and a bit more funky than a clinical one.


----------



## tom73 (1 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> My occasional neighbour popped down to weed and mow his lawns, unknown to him I had already done it for him. He is a GP with a practice in the western suburbs of Paris and has been doing two days a week on a Covid ward in the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital. He showed me photos of him and colleagues in their protection and no two were the same, mostly ad hoc and improvised. He uses a Stihl visor just like the ones he and I use when brushcutting, anti-fog, anti-glare lexan, stiff, light and comfortable to wear for hours.
> I asked him if it was sweaty working in plastic clothes, what do you think was his reply. He explained that the visors provided were wobbly garbage that fogged up and became unclipped from the headband and the headband was like a saw blade. His colleagues sought their own visors out.
> I am too polite to have asked what reason he put on his attestation to travel 170km to relax for two days and cut grass but as he is a docteur he is probably seen as the nearest thing to a living deity at the moment and is invisible to police.



At least the government has formaly come out and said sorry for the PPE mess. 
Here it's down to everyone else not them old Hancock is even blaming staff for misusing it. 
We will never really know how many health care staff have died due to lack of PPE as they are being investigated by HSE.
This week it got even worse as the chief coroner issued institutions that coroners can't rule on if lack of PPE played a part in health care staff deaths.


----------



## randynewmanscat (1 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> At least the government has formaly come out and said sorry for the PPE mess.
> Here it's down to everyone else not them old Hancock is even blaming staff for misusing it.
> We will never really know how many health care staff have died due to lack of PPE as they are being investigated by HSE.
> This week it got even worse as the chief coroner issued institutions that coroners can't rule on if lack of PPE played a part in health care staff deaths.


I needed my bed last night so missed most of the Newsnight report on why so many Filipino healthcare staff are dying, as I started to nod off on the sofa I heard the phrase "we are at the back of the queue".


----------



## Unkraut (1 May 2020)

The Bürgermeister of Tübingen Boris Palmer (Green party) has got into the headlines by a statement yesterday. He said we are trying to 'save people who would be dead anyway in half a year'. Those over 80 will at some point die.

He has subsequently apologised for his choice of words ('I would never deny them their right to life'), but not for his underlying concern. This is that according to UN reports the economic fallout of the lockdown across the world is going to endanger the lives of millions of children. He did not apologise for referencing that which is objective information. A new strategy is needed where we try to protect the elderly as much as possible but differentiate between this and the young, and bring the economy back into action, and relatively quickly at that.

Needless to say he has received a lot of pushback, but in my opinion this was more emotional than rational. He was accused of denying the human worth and dignity of the elderly, being brutal and a showing pure contempt for his fellow man. Wanting to ration hospital treatment. To my mind that missed the point, so the threat to the lives of children got lost in worrying about a tactless choice of words.

What bothers me about this is that the lockdown, due to unnecessary levels of panic and fear, is starting to take on a life of its own. Are some politicians starting to enjoy the drama of it? It is a means to an end, namely slow down the spread to protect the hospital service, but the damage to the economy and the health consequences of that also need to be taken into account even at the risk of higher infection rates in the developed world. 

The debate on this is certainly starting to heat up, and I don't think virologists & Co should necessarily be allowed to overrule every other consideration, some of whom seem to want to keep the lockdown going for as long as possible as following the ideal. They are in nice secure jobs whilst millions of others are haunted by the prospect of their livelihoods disappearing - very far from ideal.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 May 2020)

Unkraut said:


> The Bürgermeister of Tübingen Boris Palmer (Green party) has got into the headlines by a statement yesterday. He said we are trying to 'save people who would be dead anyway in half a year'. Those over 80 will at some point die.
> 
> He has subsequently apologised for his choice of words ('I would never deny them their right to life'), but not for his underlying concern. This is that according to UN reports the economic fallout of the lockdown across the world is going to endanger the lives of millions of children. He did not apologise for referencing that which is objective information. A new strategy is needed where we try to protect the elderly as much as possible but differentiate between this and the young, and bring the economy back into action, and relatively quickly at that.
> 
> ...



I don't have a source, but I read somewhere that the average loss of life expectancy from COVID deaths is ten years. If true, clearly most people were not going to be dead in half a year anyway.

Second, whilst the death rate in younger people is relatively low, it's still high enough that it's a very significant mortality. 

Third, there is no guarantee that less stringent lockdowns will affect the economy less. If we didn't lockdown but instead half a million people died in the UK, you could still expect a massive hit to the economy.

Fourth, it's not clear at all how much difference there is between a relatively soft lock down a la Sweden, and the UK's harder one is. It may not be much.

Fifth, if lockdowns are relaxed so much as to allow a full second wave, you can expect absolute economic chaos.

In summary, it's not as simple as a direct trade off between deaths and the economy. But I agree it is a debate we should be having.


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## Low Gear Guy (1 May 2020)

Most of the discussion regarding lifting the lockdown has revolved around getting people back to work. We are at risk of drifting into a situation where work continues but fun and social activities are not permitted.


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## Milzy (1 May 2020)

If I was in a busy city centre I'd maybe wear a mask but I'm in a semi rural village so I won't. Not even if I go back to work.


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## screenman (1 May 2020)

I REFUSE TO WEAR A MASK! BET NOBODY DARES TO REPOST!!
#FREEDOM #AMERICA 

That is what I just saw on a USA sight, selfish and uncaring in my opinion.


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## SpokeyDokey (1 May 2020)

122000 tests carried out yesterday. Well done to everyone involved.


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## Eziemnaik (1 May 2020)

screenman said:


> I REFUSE TO WEAR A MASK! BET NOBODY DARES TO REPOST!!
> #FREEDOM #AMERICA
> 
> That is what I just saw on a USA sight, selfish and uncaring in my opinion.


Isn't WHO advice on masks saying it is not recommended for healthy population?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 May 2020)

Boris didn’t say we were past the peak, he said he was past his peak!


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## Adam4868 (1 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> 122000 tests carried out yesterday. Well done to everyone involved.


Great acheivment although how many were home test kits,so not necessarily tested ?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (1 May 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Great acheivment although how many were home test kits,so not necessarily tested ?



I think they just said around 27000 (I may be slightly out) and that they were included as part of the original counting process as per the Gov.uk website - ie not a last ditch fudge.

Currently up to just over a million tests in total.

Edit: 27000


----------



## mjr (1 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> 122000 tests carried out yesterday. Well done to everyone involved.


So we're now doing as much as Germany was doing a few days less than a month ago? Yes, well done to those involved, but a lead parachute to those who delayed the needed resources.

And how many tests today?


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## Ming the Merciless (1 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> 122000 tests carried out yesterday. Well done to everyone involved.



When are they going to hit the 500,000 figure?


----------



## tom73 (1 May 2020)

Anyone seen the CNO ? 
Maybe she too busy learning how to count.


----------



## mjr (1 May 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Isn't WHO advice on masks saying it is not recommended for healthy population?


No. Why would you think that? It's pretty easy to find on the WHO website that the WHO says "potential advantages of the use of mask by healthy people in the community setting include reducing potential exposure risk from infected person during the 'pre-symptomatic' period and stigmatization of individuals wearing mask for source control. However, the following potential risks should be carefully taken into account in any decision-making process: self-contamination [...] potential breathing difficulties [...] false sense of security [...] diversion of mask supplies [...] diversion of resources [...] The population should receive clear instructions on what masks to wear, when and how."


----------



## screenman (1 May 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Isn't WHO advice on masks saying it is not recommended for healthy population?



Just look at your second from last word.


----------



## mjr (1 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Currently up to just over a million tests in total.


Germany reported 1.3m tests done by 8 April. Their first case was 4 days ahead of the UK's but somehow we're 4 weeks behind. https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-04-08-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile


----------



## mjr (1 May 2020)

Unkraut said:


> The debate on this is certainly starting to heat up, and I don't think virologists & Co should necessarily be allowed to overrule every other consideration, some of whom seem to want to keep the lockdown going for as long as possible as following the ideal. They are in nice secure jobs whilst millions of others are haunted by the prospect of their livelihoods disappearing - very far from ideal.


I've been criticised for this on another site, but I think Belgium's unlocking commission is a good balance: 5 medics (including the federal COVID lead officers), 3 economists, 1 jurist, 1 trade unionist, 0 politicians. The medics clearly have the upper hand but they cannot overrule alone.


----------



## Eziemnaik (1 May 2020)

mjr said:


> No. Why would you think that? It's pretty easy to find on the WHO website that the WHO says "potential advantages of the use of mask by healthy people in the community setting include reducing potential exposure risk from infected person during the 'pre-symptomatic' period and stigmatization of individuals wearing mask for source control. However, the following potential risks should be carefully taken into account in any decision-making process: self-contamination [...] potential breathing difficulties [...] false sense of security [...] diversion of mask supplies [...] diversion of resources [...] The population should receive clear instructions on what masks to weark, when and how."


Because of all the reasons you listed?
Plus it clearly says WHO recommends mask for people with symptoms
No symptoms no mask recommendation


----------



## mjr (1 May 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Because of all the reasons you listed?
> Plus it clearly says WHO recommends mask for people with symptoms
> No symptoms no mask recommendation


Oh I see. OK, they're not recommending their use but they're also explicitly not recommending against them either!


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (1 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> 122000 tests carried out yesterday. Well done to everyone involved.


A test is more than a kit in an envelope. And a kit in an envelope is not a test done. They shouldn't be counted as tests until the results have been communicated to Public Health England.


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## Eziemnaik (1 May 2020)

I suppose i didnt put it right


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## SpokeyDokey (1 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Germany reported 1.3m tests done by 8 April. Their first case was 4 days ahead of the UK's but somehow we're 4 weeks behind. https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-04-08-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile



Apart from the inevitable inquest a couple of years down track what is the point in looking back right now? I just don't see the point of this constant negative posting tbh.

From what I see I think the people involved (Gov', NHS, Scientists etc) in the high level decision making process re this situation are doing a decent job in difficult circumstances. For sure mistakes will be made and lessons will hopefully be learnt for the future but I can't recall any major event in my lifetime which has been managed anywhere near 100% mistake free.

Whilst we shouldn't ever shy away from the truth I find it quite debilitating that the media (inc' social media) continue to focus on negatives as opposed to the positives. I'm pretty sure that focussing on the darker side of events at the expense of a more balanced viewpoint is not helping the many people who are feeling genuinely fearful & depressed about the crisis and the current effect on them as well as their future.

I'm not suggesting that we ought to live in a sugar coated world but just sometimes why don't we laud the positives without the buts?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 May 2020)

Quite something if true, and can be rolled out quickly. But you’d need to test every day for it to be effective.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tes-test-for-pre-infectious-covid-19-carriers


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## mjr (1 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I'm not suggesting that we ought to live in a sugar coated world but just sometimes why don't we laud the positives without the buts?


Because if you only celebrate the train's arrival without mentioning its lateness, it creates a false impression and reduces the incentive to avoid similar delays to tomorrow's train - or, in this case, to avoid unnecessary deaths in the future waves.

Shouldn't Great Britain be a country that celebrates Greatness like Colonel Tom? Or has it become Mediocre Britain?


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## tom73 (1 May 2020)

WHO are being very selective on mask use.
They recommend public use for Flu pandemics given this virus is even more contagious. 
It hard to know what the real problem is.


----------



## winjim (1 May 2020)

Ha. I've not looked at this thread for a while, just opened it up and look what the first unread post was.




lane said:


> How close are we to 100,000 tests a day promised and when was that supposed to happen? Are the media going to hold them to account for this?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (1 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Because if you only celebrate the train's arrival without mentioning its lateness, it creates a false impression and reduces the incentive to avoid similar delays to tomorrow's train - or, in this case, to avoid unnecessary deaths in the future waves.
> 
> Shouldn't Great Britain be a country that celebrates Greatness like Colonel Tom? Or has it become Mediocre Britain?



Perhaps we live at opposite ends of the fabled beer glass. 

I have no problem with recognising the realities of situations, it's the reflexive 'buts' that irk me - especially those that are politically motivated as displayed so often in the British press. They serve little value in my opinion. They remind of the predictable 'Pearl Crushers' in business meetings where every new suggestion is damned a nanosecond after the last full stop. 

Anyway, I don't want to take the thread way off-track or else I'll have to throw myself in the Sin Bin.


----------



## winjim (1 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> A test is more than a kit in an envelope. And a kit in an envelope is not a test done. They shouldn't be counted as tests until the results have been communicated to Public Health England.


As you probably know I work in a hospital lab. I promise you that is not how we count tests. The clock starts at the point the sample arrives in the lab and is timestamped, it stops at the point we issue a report. But that's just our little chemistry lab, maybe they count differently in virology.


----------



## PK99 (1 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Apart from the inevitable inquest a couple of years down track what is the point in looking back right now? I just don't see the point of this constant negative posting tbh.
> 
> From what I see I think the people involved (Gov', NHS, Scientists etc) in the high level decision making process re this situation are doing a decent job in difficult circumstances. For sure mistakes will be made and lessons will hopefully be learnt for the future but I can't recall any major event in my lifetime which has been managed anywhere near 100% mistake free.
> 
> ...



Well said!

A goodly number of folks I know have switched off from most media - for exactly the reason you cite: an overly negative focus.

An example;
Headline to a Times article yesterday:
"Scientists say virus as deadly as Ebola for hospital victims"

Not till well into the article does it become clear that the death rate from Ebola is 25-90% depending on the oubreak you look at, with an average of 50% but the "overall death rate from Covid -19 is thought to be less than 1%" and that the median age for the patients studied was 72 and of those who died was 80, the proportion dying was 35 to 40%.

The science being reported on is good science: the reporting and in particular the headline is sensationalist scaremongering.


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## newfhouse (1 May 2020)

Good news about the test numbers, I guess. What happens if someone tests positive? How much work is done to trace, inform and test contacts? Do we yet have a cadre of trained people capable of following up?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (1 May 2020)

winjim said:


> As you probably know I work in a hospital lab. I promise you that is not how we count tests. The clock starts at the point the sample arrives in the lab and is timestamped, it stops at the point we issue a report. But that's just our little chemistry lab, maybe they count differently in virology.


But you certainly don't date stamp them before the test has been done. 39,000 test subjects haven't even had a chance to create a sample


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## Rickshaw Phil (1 May 2020)

It still needs to be verified but it looks like there is some positive news coming from South Korea: No Evidence of Coronavirus Reinfection, South Korean Officials Say

"South Korean officials stated that there’s no evidence currently that the virus is reinfecting people in the country, and the test results that suggested reinfection were likely false positives finding dead virus particles."


----------



## screenman (1 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Germany reported 1.3m tests done by 8 April. Their first case was 4 days ahead of the UK's but somehow we're 4 weeks behind. https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-04-08-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile



That is because we are nearly out of the EU.


----------



## winjim (1 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> But you certainly don't date stamp them before the test has been done. 39,000 test subjects haven't even had a chance to create a sample


Of course. The date stamping machine is on a bench in the laboratory.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 May 2020)

Interesting article on vaccine candidates by Bill Gates (the real one not Himalayan salt cure one)

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/What-you-need-to-know-about-the-COVID-19-vaccine


----------



## randynewmanscat (1 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> Well said!
> 
> A goodly number of folks I know have switched off from most media - for exactly the reason you cite: an overly negative focus.
> 
> ...


I saw the movie trailer for "Leaving Las Vegas" days after I had seen the film and did not recognise it as the film I had watched. The trailer pitched it as a hilarious comedy, it wasn't, not for me or most people who watched it.
Out of context is a scourge that must have been around since we have.


----------



## mjr (1 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Perhaps we live at opposite ends of the fabled beer glass.


Maybe. I don't drink-post 



> I have no problem with recognising the realities of situations,


Maybe post about them.



> it's the reflexive 'buts' that irk me - especially those that are politically motivated as displayed so often in the British press. They serve little value in my opinion.


It's hard to discuss the politicians mismanaging the UK response without it being slightly political. They've failed to do as in other countries and let the expert managers manage the response. Like Trump, they all seem to want their TV time.

You can rest assured that I'm not motivated by the British press. I don't read it much any more because it had become far too close to the government apart from a few too close to the opposition. More Irish, Swiss, French, Belgian and German. So the implied insult has little value.


----------



## Inertia (2 May 2020)

While I look critically at what the press writes I am somewhat worried by friends of mine, and others starting to echo what’s going on in America. They have started attacking the press for asking, what they think of as, stupid questions. Im not sure what questions they do want asked though.


----------



## marinyork (2 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Apart from the inevitable inquest a couple of years down track what is the point in looking back right now? I just don't see the point of this constant negative posting tbh.



It's clearly too late. Having 20,000 tests a day in the first days of April was far more useful than quibbling about whether you're at 90,000 or 100,000 tests a day for the final day, which is pretty meaningless outside of a political context. Had the government hit their 10,000 and 25,000 targets when they said I would have been far more impressed than hitting 100,000 by the end of April. Having a smaller 'bigger' capacity earlier than a bigger capacity later is more useful for the present. Sadly the case with Singapore you still need to up it as once you're testing your cases and a third/half of them are coming back positive you've screwed as your capacity is essentially vastly exceeded by those that probably have the virus or ones you'd want to test. It puts us in a good place for wave 2. As long as capacity doesn't get reduced/can be switched on quickly it puts us in a good place for the winter.

Being able to test 50,000 _actual _people in a single day or 100,000 tests or whatever headline figure a government wants to call it does allow you do to important stuff. So IPSOS Mori is able to mount a robust study about what percentage of the population have it. This is important. Hancock/other organisations army of 18,000 contact tracers is able to have something to work with, although given what's going on locally with that I have very severe doubts about it going on if you're not white or relatively well off. It may turn out that concentrating a proportion of those tests exclusively for care homes would be a wise strategy. It's an economic consideration but having 100,000 a day and a figure to brag about and allow the 'public' to be tested will reassure a percentage of the public about going back to 'normal'. As a political consideration it's a part of one of the five stupidly vague tests. To a certain extent the current testing regime keeps some of our hospital workers and in other health care settings which have easy access a bit safer, although PPE has a massive bearing.

There are rumours of a few tech/logistical innovations on the way in all the different testing regimes. This would be amazing if they can be deployed over the summer.

Aside from the 1,2, 4 and the orange bit of the graphs they produce each day, we haven't the foggiest who is actually being tested. Some had doubts that the government were even keeping postcodes and it was just positive or not.


----------



## tom73 (2 May 2020)

Testing now feels very much more a numbers games "look how well we are doing" then doing anything useful with the results or what picture it's building. It's great that the capacity has gone up and clearly a lot of work away from the cameras by many faceless hard working soles. 
Which has to be welcomed but the media driven political circus has now just tuned the whole thing into a massive free for all. Which leaves everyone having to be pitched against everyone else. Reports on easy assess to tasing for health workers suggest it's not yet in place.


----------



## PeteXXX (2 May 2020)

We're I to be tested, and any potential contact tracing performed, they would have a hard job. 
I was in Northampton, Kettering, Shefford, Royston, Kettering again, St Ives (Cambs) Wellingborough, Kettering yet again, and home to Northampton.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 May 2020)

Groom’s speech for a wedding that should have happened today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-52488882


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 May 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> We're I to be tested, and any potential contact tracing performed, they would have a hard job.
> I was in Northampton, Kettering, Shefford, Royston, Kettering again, St Ives (Cambs) Wellingborough, Kettering yet again, and home to Northampton.



But surely you know who you met during those visits? It’s not about people you passed in a few seconds going the opposite way when walking. It’s about the more prolonged contacts.


----------



## PeteXXX (2 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> But surely you know who you met during those visits? It’s not about people you passed in a few seconds going the opposite way when walking. It’s about the more prolonged contacts.


I probably had contact of over 10 minutes at most places I visited. Hard to count the numbers of people, though. Maybe 50+ drivers, all going on to different places. Goods in chaps at each place. Office staff at most places.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 May 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> I probably had contact of over 10 minutes at most places I visited. Hard to count the numbers of people, though. Maybe 50+ drivers, all going on to different places. Goods in chaps at each place. Office staff at most places.



Those things will be timed so not so hard to trace


----------



## marinyork (2 May 2020)

2 metres could become 1 according to rumours in the guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ck-temperatures-before-travelling-coronavirus

Sounds cynical to me.


----------



## mjr (2 May 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> I probably had contact of over 10 minutes at most places I visited. Hard to count the numbers of people, though. Maybe 50+ drivers, all going on to different places. Goods in chaps at each place. Office staff at most places.


And that's why so-called "social spreaders" should be the second group vaccinated after health workers.


----------



## marinyork (2 May 2020)

Don't know whether anyone has seen this, but apart from the very grim findings early on in the virus's spread about deaths for BAMEs, the ONS have some maps


View: https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1256142234275188740


http://ow.ly/dkeH50ztQMG

The map on the latter goes up to 17th April but is far more robust than the nonsense the government and local news give us.

Edit: There's also a second map that shows deaths on a highly local level. Looking at that map I had a look out of curiousity at an area that doesn't have blitz spirit and dense housing and heard a lot of concerning things from - a large number of deaths 18 compared with 1/2/3 in most other areas (the areas are about a third of the size of wards). I also had a look at the peak district which doesn't keep any detailed information. Quite a number of deaths there by 17th April.


----------



## Mike_P (2 May 2020)

North Yorkshire hospitals announced numbers of CV19 related patients today which makes it around 2 out of every 7 admitted who are not dying.


----------



## newfhouse (2 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Hancock/other organisations army of 18,000 contact tracers is able to have something to work with, although given what's going on locally with that I have very severe doubts about it going on if you're not white or relatively well off.


Does anyone have any definitive information about this? Who are these tracers, what do they actually do, what resources do they have? Even if 1% of those tested are positive, that’s 1000 a day, every day. That strikes me as a huge amount of work, not to mention a massive IT challenge. I frankly don’t believe we have such a system, but I’d love someone to tell me what does happen.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 May 2020)

A really excellent overview of all aspects of the epidemic. 

Highly recommended. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/


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## tom73 (2 May 2020)

We already have contact tracing in place for other things. Some will be other services that are moving into Covid tracing. Such as LA public health officers, sexual health servicers, TB nurses.
It’s a big challenge to get all to join up it maybe like testing down to a numbers name with little to do with being effective.


----------



## Beebo (2 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> My occasional neighbour popped down to weed and mow his lawns, unknown to him I had already done it for him. He is a GP with a practice in the western suburbs of Paris and has been doing two days a week on a Covid ward in the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital. He showed me photos of him and colleagues in their protection and no two were the same, mostly ad hoc and improvised. He uses a Stihl visor just like the ones he and I use when brushcutting, anti-fog, anti-glare lexan, stiff, light and comfortable to wear for hours.
> I asked him if it was sweaty working in plastic clothes, what do you think was his reply. He explained that the visors provided were wobbly garbage that fogged up and became unclipped from the headband and the headband was like a saw blade. His colleagues sought their own visors out.
> I am too polite to have asked what reason he put on his attestation to travel 170km to relax for two days and cut grass but as he is a docteur he is probably seen as the nearest thing to a living deity at the moment and is invisible to police.


My brother’s done a couple of tours of Afghanistan. Most soldiers compliment the standard issue kit with their own better stuff. 
Government issue kit isnt great in any theatre.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 May 2020)

Good for introverts

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeand...lockdown-is-a-chance-to-play-to-our-strengths


----------



## marinyork (2 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Good for introverts
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/lifeand...lockdown-is-a-chance-to-play-to-our-strengths



And for Opens? For the conscientious? For agreeables? For neurotics?


----------



## marinyork (2 May 2020)

Opinium ask a set of questions that they interpret as the public are strongly in support of lockdown continuing

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll


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## Ming the Merciless (2 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> And for Opens? For the conscientious? For agreeables? For neurotics?



Not mutually exclusive traits


----------



## marinyork (2 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Not mutually exclusive traits



Well not with introverts, since every introvert is somewhere on the four other axes.

I like the article, but don't feel it's particularly enlightening.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Well not with introverts, since every introvert is somewhere on the four other axes.
> 
> I like the article, but don't feel it's particularly enlightening.



It does ring true for us introverts though


----------



## mjr (3 May 2020)

Mike_P said:


> North Yorkshire hospitals announced numbers of CV19 related patients today which makes it around 2 out of every 7 admitted who are not dying.


Link? Any explanation? Please?


----------



## PeteXXX (3 May 2020)

mjr said:


> And that's why so-called "social spreaders" should be the second group vaccinated after health workers.


I don't think I even qualify for a test yet, let alone a vaccine (when it becomes available).


----------



## slowmotion (3 May 2020)

[media]
]View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbKE0gJETA0[/media]


----------



## randynewmanscat (3 May 2020)

Beebo said:


> My brother’s done a couple of tours of Afghanistan. Most soldiers compliment the standard issue kit with their own better stuff.
> Government issue kit isnt great in any theatre.


My old walking buddy fought in the Falklands war and him and many of his chums used their own sacs and bags, others went to Blacks and the YHA shop to buy Karrimor and Berghaus sacs because the issue Bergens are like torture racks. When you work on the ground floor you look after yourself because your bosses are busy elsewhere.


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## Mike_P (3 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Link? Any explanation? Please?


The number who had been released were stated in a radio news bulletin, then the number of deaths so putting the two together gives the "7" while those released gives "2".


----------



## marinyork (3 May 2020)

*Pharma giant Roche gets US go-ahead for Covid-19 antibody test*
Swiss drug maker Roche Holding AG says it has received emergency use approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for an antibody test to help determine if people have ever been infected with the coronavirus.

Governments, businesses and individuals are seeking such blood tests to help them learn more about who may have had the disease, who may have some immunity and to potentially craft strategies to end lockdowns that have battered global economies.

Roche had previously pledged to make its antibody test available by early May and to boost production by June to “high double-digit millions” per month.

From the guardian. Interesting as the US junked a lot of promising tests. Spain had some 30% tests, the US junked a highly specific test that had 50% accuracy and the UK binned a 70% accuracy test with false positives not disclosed.


----------



## marinyork (3 May 2020)

Interview with some medics about unexplained aspects of covid-19

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-grapple-with-covid-19s-mysterious-mechanism


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 May 2020)

More gushing stories about Johnson, who appears to have plenty of time for personal interviews with the press, despite having a country in its worst crisis for nearly a century to run.

It may be worth noting, as his insouciance and late lockdown was responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, that he's chosen to name his new arrival "Will Law Nick Johnson". Hiding in plain sight perhaps?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (3 May 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/barnabynerberka/status/1256544650460094464


----------



## tom73 (3 May 2020)

Disappointing interview with Shapps on Marr. Twice Shapps tried to make positive comments and make a point that cycling and active travel will have a part to play post lockdown. Twice Marr quickly moved it on basically killed all talk of it.


----------



## kingrollo (3 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> More gushing stories about Johnson, who appears to have plenty of time for personal interviews with the press, despite having a country in its worst crisis for nearly a century to run.
> 
> It may be worth noting, as his insouciance and late lockdown was responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, that he's chosen to name his new arrival "Will Law Nick Johnson". Hiding in plain sight perhaps?


Wonder if they will be as slow lifting the lockdown as they were putting it in place.


----------



## marinyork (3 May 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52510194

more stories on antibody tests, I suspect tje journos were investigating anyway but 'timed' and put out because the FDA has approved another major test.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 May 2020)




----------



## tom73 (3 May 2020)

With the contact tracing app set to go live within weeks it still look's as iffy as it did when it was first thought about. 
It still look's and sounds like a total privacy mess not to mention the rest. 
Have NHSX got the means to make, run and control the app and it's data in house Or is it all going to be outsourced ?
If so who really owns the data ?, what will they do with it ? If people don't trust they won't use it.
Most people never worried about Cambridge Analytica till they had to. Centrally controlled data is not a great selling point.


----------



## stowie (3 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Disappointing interview with Shapps on Marr. Twice Shapps tried to make positive comments and make a point that cycling and active travel will have a part to play post lockdown. Twice Marr quickly moved it on basically killed all talk of it.



Yes, I saw that. Shapps said about encouraging active travel with cycling and walking and Marr immediately countered with the case if you live 30 miles from work you cannot walk there.

Which rather ignores the huge proportion of travel that _is _within the range of active travel.


----------



## mjr (3 May 2020)

Marr's a petrolhead, put his classic motors in the titles to make them expensable. Wrong place to expect active travel to get a fair hearing.

Did you notice Shapps seem to say they should have built more testing capacity earlier?

Gove said about 75'000 tests in today's sermon.


----------



## Tanis8472 (3 May 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1256977021336518656


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (3 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> With the contact tracing app set to go live within weeks it still look's as iffy as it did when it was first thought about.
> It still look's and sounds like a total privacy mess not to mention the rest.
> Have NHSX got the means to make, run and control the app and it's data in house Or is it all going to be outsourced ?
> If so who really owns the data ?, what will they do with it ? If people don't trust they won't use it.
> Most people never worried about Cambridge Analytica till they had to. Centrally controlled data is not a great selling point.


If clearly political and commercial interests, such as Cummings and his data mining buddy, can inveigle their way onto SAGE, then I'm going nowhere near a central data collecting app. They're as trustworthy as 100,000 tests a day.


----------



## tom73 (3 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> If clearly political and commercial interests, such as Cummings and his data mining buddy, can inveigle their way onto SAGE, then I'm going nowhere near a central data collecting app. They're as trustworthy as 100,000 tests a day.



Yep I’ve just seen a list of who’s had a hand in this App it makes google look like a data saint.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 May 2020)

Guess it won’t work on my dumb phone. Oh well...


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (3 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Guess it won’t work on my dumb phone. Oh well...


I held out for a long time but eventually gave in and went down to the phone shop.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I held out for a long time but eventually gave in and went down to the phone shop.



My PAYG dumb phone from Tesco was £4.99 and included £15 of credit. Ideal for me as credit doesn’t expire as long as I use phone at least once every six months.

I could buy 100 of them for price of a smart phone.

Plus battery lasts a few weeks not days!


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (3 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> My PAYG dumb phone from Tesco was £4.99 and included £15 of credit. Ideal for me as credit doesn’t expire as long as I use phone at least once every six months.
> 
> I could buy 100 of them for price of a smart phone.
> 
> Plus battery lasts a few weeks not days!


You don't have to pay that much and you can get phones with bigger batteries (they tend to be bigger and heavier too). Camera, satnav, cyling apps, GPS, all small and portable. But, to nudge the thread back on track, here's a photo from my phone on a bike ride...


----------



## Ming the Merciless (3 May 2020)

I was wondering how much the NHS doctors are looking at what we know about the body and how it adapts when it has very low levels of oxygen? A lot could be learnt from high altitude medicine where it’s known people have been exercising perfectly fine above 8400m with blood oxygen sats as low at 54%.


----------



## tom73 (3 May 2020)

Just watching the news doing a report on possible drugs to treat Covid patients so filming on a Covid Ward.
I’m fuming how is it that the reporter and crew have better PPE than the nurse who is caring for the patient? Who is coughing all over the place as the nurse is standing next to the bed.

This is why the number of health worker deaths is still going up it shouldn’t be happening.
Staff are not disposable but clearly the government see it differently.


----------



## Milzy (3 May 2020)

There's been traffic ques a mile long to get into Costa coffee when the government is spending millions on our Furloughed people. Loads of people are making multiple journeys a day half not essential. It's a complete joke. They should get primary schools opened in a week and then get us off Furlough the week after.


----------



## tom73 (3 May 2020)

Schools are a real can of worms they can’t just reopen as before. They simply don’t have the room to social distance and that’s just the start. It will have to be the ones at greatest need 1st then slowly opening up to others.


----------



## Adam4868 (3 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> With the contact tracing app set to go live within weeks it still look's as iffy as it did when it was first thought about.
> It still look's and sounds like a total privacy mess not to mention the rest.
> Have NHSX got the means to make, run and control the app and it's data in house Or is it all going to be outsourced ?
> If so who really owns the data ?, what will they do with it ? If people don't trust they won't use it.
> Most people never worried about Cambridge Analytica till they had to. Centrally controlled data is not a great selling point.


It shifts responsibility to us,the public.They provide the app and pass the blame to us rather than themselves.


----------



## vickster (3 May 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> It shifts responsibility to us,the public.They provide the app and pass the blame to us rather than themselves.


How else can contact tracing be done without the cooperation of the population?
It’s been successful in Korea thanks to extremely high levels of compliance by the population and government intervention in personal privacy


----------



## Adam4868 (4 May 2020)

vickster said:


> How else can contact tracing be done without the cooperation of the population?
> It’s been successful in Korea thanks to extremely high levels of compliance by the population and government intervention in personal privacy


Maybe your right,but public trust in this goverment and transparency ? They don't have a great track record for me.


----------



## Adam4868 (4 May 2020)

Interesting to see how others view our success.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...ere-did-britain-go-wrong-20200428-p54o2d.html


----------



## MrGrumpy (4 May 2020)

This event has plenty more twists and turns to go through , lots of comparisons between apple and pairs ! The media will always paint their own picture. The only thing I`ve learned so far is that our care home systems needed to be looked at thoroughly after this.


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

Care home system is just the start so much inequality has been laid bare by this.


----------



## Electric_Andy (4 May 2020)

I'm just on a call with our whole team; the boss is talking about the "announcement" yesterday and how we should all be thinking about going into work and social distancing. It's a complete farce - the boss has just said how well we are working at home, so why the urge to go in to the office? We can all work from home perfectly well, there's no reason to go into the office apart from for "interaction". And this is the NHS.

Am I wrong to think we should all be working at home and only going in to work if absolutely necessary?


----------



## Milzy (4 May 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Interesting to see how others view our success.
> https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...ere-did-britain-go-wrong-20200428-p54o2d.html


The problem is that this is completely sensationalistic. There are countries across Scandinavia & Europe who haven't implemented anywhere near the same level of lockdown as the Italians, Spaniards or UK and they've had nowhere near the levels of infection. If you look at the statistics clearly the most infections occur (as you'd expect) in those areas where the population density is at its highest, hence why London accounts for the vast majority of cases in the UK. 

The reality is that Australia and New Zealand are both completely incomparable to the UK in that both their population and population densities are low.

No UK Government could or would have reacted any differently, and that's the cold harsh truth. 

Let them crack on.


----------



## Unkraut (4 May 2020)

As of this morning, zoos, museums, war memorials are open again. Hairdressers and all retail shops. A ban on shops with over 800 sq. m floor space has already been overturned in a constitutional court - the govt had admitted it was somewhat arbitrary, but did not want masses of people crowding into town centres again. Church and sundry services will be permitted again, and those in care homes will now be allowed out. Children's playgrounds are reopening. No more restrictions on dentists (talking of which .... ) . Some of the restrictions on the border with France are being relaxed.

Schools are being partly opened, though the logistics of this are very difficult when taking into account protecting vulnerable staff and trying to maintain the hygiene regime. The opening of schools is very controversial but the state wants to allow exams to go ahead as normal as much as this is possible.

One state is allowing 5 people to meet together instead of two as at present.

I was quite surprised at the level of 'normality' envisaged, and can only assume that the voices arguing the lockdown simply cannot be maintained indefinitely have gained in influence. The discipline needed to keep it going, especially in city centres, is possibly starting to get a bit iffy.


----------



## Unkraut (4 May 2020)

Milzy said:


> No UK Government could or would have reacted any differently, and that's the cold harsh truth.


I'm afraid I don't agree. I think there has been a mind-numbing amount of complacency in the way the govt reacted. Maybe arguing about this during the pandemic isn't very productive, but the govt and lack of grip need to be thoroughly examined afterwards, with suitable consequences if appropriate. Lions led by donkeys again, and it actually makes me quite sad to see what has gone on in Britain over the last few weeks. 

Oh populism what crimes are committed in thy name.


----------



## mjr (4 May 2020)

Milzy said:


> If you look at the statistics clearly the most infections occur (as you'd expect) in those areas where the population density is at its highest, hence why London accounts for the vast majority of cases in the UK.


Prove it. I think it doesn't correlate as strongly as you're suggesting and even then correlation is not causation.



> No UK Government could or would have reacted any differently, and that's the cold harsh truth.
> 
> Let them crack on.


They clearly could and we'll never really know if another government would, but I don't think it's completely preposterous to say another government might have followed WHO advice in early March and increased testing a month earlier than this one did.

Crack on? No, stop and fix before the advice-ignoring NHSX app becomes another act of this lethal farce.


----------



## Rusty Nails (4 May 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> It shifts responsibility to us,the public.They provide the app and pass the blame to us rather than themselves.



The responsibility has to be shared between us and the government. Neither side can sort it on their own.

I can blame the government for its response, but I can also blame the public for not fully accepting and sticking to the restrictions.


----------



## Milzy (4 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The responsibility has to be shared between us and the government. Neither side can sort it on their own.
> 
> I can blame the government for its response, but I can also blame the public for not fully accepting and sticking to the restrictions.


I'd say this is pretty much the cold hard reality in a nutshell.


----------



## Adam4868 (4 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The responsibility has to be shared between us and the government. Neither side can sort it on their own.
> 
> I can blame the government for its response, but I can also blame the public for not fully accepting and sticking to the restrictions.


Your view,I think the public have done there part willingly.As for the goverment I think they've been a shambles.


----------



## MrGrumpy (4 May 2020)

Whilst I agree, lets see how good or bad the rest have the nations have done once this blows over, if and when it does. 

Just to put another slant on current events, there were more deaths from suicide last month than Covid in my home county  .


----------



## Rusty Nails (4 May 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Your view,I think the public have done there part willingly.As for the goverment I think they've been a shambles.



All the public? 

I agree with you about the government.

Of course it's my view, that's why I posted it. Do you post stuff that's not your view?


----------



## Adam4868 (4 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> All the public?
> 
> I agree with you about the government.
> 
> Of course it's my view, that's why I posted it. Do you post stuff that's not your view?


So you don't think the public have done their part ? Wheres the mass gatherings,the disobedience ? We've done a good job as far as I can see.
Goverment late to testing,late to lockdown,open borders and looking like were going to have one of the highest death rates.


----------



## vickster (4 May 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> So you don't think the public have done their part ? *Wheres the mass gatherings,the disobedience *? We've done a good job as far as I can see.
> Goverment late to testing,late to lockdown,open borders and looking like were going to have one of the highest death rates.


It's really quite worrying even sad that anyone would expect a population to behave in such a way at a time of crisis  (other than a very small minority)


----------



## Rusty Nails (4 May 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> So you don't think the public have done their part ? Wheres the mass gatherings,the disobedience ? We've done a good job as far as I can see.



Your view?

I agree most have. Both the government and the public failed over the attendance at football matches and Cheltenham just before the lockdown. There are many examples of breaking the regulations on self-isolation and social-distancing by the public every day, most of which are not highlighted because the police don't get involved.

We don't have mass gatherings and disobedience because that is not the British way, old chap. We prefer to bitch on the internet and letters to newspapers.


----------



## Adam4868 (4 May 2020)

vickster said:


> It's really quite worrying even sad that anyone would expect a population to behave in such a way at a time of crisis  (other than a very small minority)


I don't get you sorry ?


----------



## Adam4868 (4 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Your view?
> 
> I agree most have. Both the government and the public failed over the attendance at football matches and Cheltenham just before the lockdown. There are many examples of breaking the regulations on self-isolation and social-distancing by the public every day, most of which are not highlighted because the police don't get involved.
> 
> We don't have mass gatherings and disobedience because that is not the British way, old chap. We prefer to bitch on the internet and letters to newspapers.


They let the football matches and Cheltenham go ahead,also have us one last night in the pubs ! So as I said we've done well,the goverment haven't.Glad that's cleared up.


----------



## vickster (4 May 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> I don't get you sorry ?


You seem surprised that it hasn't happened?


----------



## mjr (4 May 2020)

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-reopen/ discusses unlocking. It doesn't seem like many in the USA fear discussing the end of lockdowns will cause the world to end, unlike gov.uk


----------



## Adam4868 (4 May 2020)

vickster said:


> You seem surprised that it hasn't happened?


No why would I ? If you read what I said it's that I think the public have done well.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (4 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Your view?
> 
> I agree most have. Both the government and the public failed over the attendance at football matches and Cheltenham just before the lockdown. There are many examples of breaking the regulations on self-isolation and social-distancing by the public every day, most of which are not highlighted because the police don't get involved.
> 
> We don't have mass gatherings and disobedience because that is not the British way, old chap. We prefer to bitch on the internet and letters to newspapers.



There was an article on the BBC the other day that said 9% of the public have resisted the lockdown. There have been (small) protests in Aberdeen and London. There have been thousands of fines issued and I'd bet that's only the tip of the iceberg as most would probably just be warned.

Before the lockdown it was said that we'd only have one chance at an effective lockdown because there was a limit to how long the public would co-operate. I think that's been borne out by the reality.


----------



## mjr (4 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I agree most have. Both the government and the public failed over the attendance at football matches and Cheltenham just before the lockdown.


Most of the public did not go to football matches or Cheltenham, despite the government trying to fire more fodder into the "herd immunity" canons by saying that this was OK and various ministers trying to set an example, including one who did the equivalent of feeding a covid-burger to their unborn child by taking him to things like rugby matches at Twickenham:


----------



## PK99 (4 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I was wondering how much the NHS doctors are looking at what we know about the body and how it adapts when it has very low levels of oxygen? *A lot could be learnt from high altitude medicine where it’s known people have been exercising perfectly fine above 8400m with blood oxygen sats as low at 54%.*



Are you sure about that?

Climbers and scientists have a special name for the highest part of Everest, or everything above 26,247 feet (8,000 meters): "The Death Zone."
In the Death Zone, oxygen is so limited that the body's cells start to die. Climbers' judgment becomes impaired, and they can experience heart attacks, strokes, or severe altitude sickness.
Recently, the queues to reach Everest's summit have been so long that climbers in the Death Zone are dying of exhaustion waiting in line for their turn to climb.

and wiki;
The *death zone* is the name used by mountain climbers for high altitude where there is not enough available oxygen for humans to breathe. This is usually above 8,000 metres (26,247 feet). Most of the 200+ climbers who have died on Mount *Everest* have died in the *death zone*.


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

More "oh look how how good are we" government public health policy maybe coming out way. 
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...us-health-passports-for-uk-possible-in-months


----------



## PK99 (4 May 2020)

Milzy said:


> The problem is that this is completely sensationalistic. There are countries across Scandinavia & Europe who haven't implemented anywhere near the same level of lockdown as the Italians, Spaniards or UK and they've had nowhere near the levels of infection. *If you look at the statistics clearly the most infections occur (as you'd expect) in those areas where the population density is at its highest, hence why London accounts for the vast majority of cases in the UK.*
> 
> The reality is that Australia and* New Zealand are both completely incomparable to the UK in that both their population and population densities are low.*
> 
> ...



New Zealand has a population of 4.8 million and a land area approximately the same as the UK. 
UK Population 67 Million

Auckland is the biggest NZ city with a population of 1.4 million at a density of 2,400 per sq km
Greater London has a population of 9 Million and a density of 6000 per sq km


----------



## mjr (4 May 2020)

Speaking of passports, France has added the UK to the EU countries excluded from 14 days quarantine on entry. They didn't have to do that. https://www.france24.com/en/2020050...are-travellers-from-schengen-area-and-britain


----------



## mjr (4 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> More "oh look how how good are we" government public health policy maybe coming out way.
> https://www.theguardian.com/politic...us-health-passports-for-uk-possible-in-months


"How good are we" at handing over biometrics to a firm specialising in facial recognition and again doing the exact opposite of WHO advice, you mean?


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I was wondering how much the NHS doctors are looking at what we know about the body and how it adapts when it has very low levels of oxygen? A lot could be learnt from high altitude medicine where it’s known people have been exercising perfectly fine above 8400m with blood oxygen sats as low at 54%.



That's in fit and well people who have trained to deal with low sats. It's of little help when the treating critically ill.
Anyone with sats that low would be in real trouble in day to day life.
Even in a pre hospital care situation sats of less than 95% are classed as needed 100% oxygen.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 May 2020)

Milzy said:


> No UK Government could or would have reacted any differently, and that's the cold harsh truth



Nonsense. 

Every week of delay quadrupled the death toll. 

We had a policy of herd immunity, then govt changed their minds even they realised they couldn't survive the death toll. 

We failed to prepare because we were focused on the ideological triumph of Brexit rather than the practical reality of COVID. 

We could see the example of Italy weeks ahead but lethally delayed lock down because our Prime Minister risibly felt the British love of liberty couldn't stomach it.

Every week of delay quadrupled the death toll. 

Our dilettante prime minister spent two weeks away at his country house when critical decisions were needed. 

Every week of delay quadrupled the death toll.

If we'd acted sooner, we would not have had PPE shortages, because so many fewer cases would have happened. We would already be easing restrictions, because we would have so many fewer cases. 

South Korea, Germany, Norway, Greece, Ireland. All acted sooner. All had better outcomes. 

Every week of delay quadrupled the death toll. 

That's the harsh reality.


----------



## matticus (4 May 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Interesting to see how others view our success.
> https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...ere-did-britain-go-wrong-20200428-p54o2d.html


There's an interesting aspect to the hindsight-witch-hunt in there which I hadn't noticed before:



> Arrivals at Heathrow Airport were half what they normally were in March but still, 3.1 million landed there over the month. Nearly half a million came from the Asia-Pacific; 875,000 were from the European Union, and 711,000 came from North America.
> 
> *Home Secretary Priti Patel supported a ban on travellers who had been in hotspots but was slapped down by Downing Street,* which cited scientific advice that doing so would have little impact on the spread of the infection. When this spat was under way, Australia's borders had already been closed for a week to all foreign travellers. Australia banned flights from China as early as February 1.


----------



## marinyork (4 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Your view?
> 
> I agree most have. Both the government and the public failed over the attendance at football matches and Cheltenham just before the lockdown. There are many examples of breaking the regulations on self-isolation and social-distancing by the public every day, most of which are not highlighted because the police don't get involved.
> 
> We don't have mass gatherings and disobedience because that is not the British way, old chap. We prefer to bitch on the internet and letters to newspapers.



As far as I can tell there isn't a psychologist or behavioural scientist or epidemiologist out there criticising the UK public at large. Yes, they may be publishing to the rules or messages, but every one I have seen has said given this is what the rules are x, that the public are following social distancing and shielding more than expected/the models. 

We all have daft neighbours, so my next door neighbour has her sister and mother around every couple of days and they are both back at work. They've also had bbqs. A neighbour across the road is constantly visiting mate's houses. Most others reducing their social interactions by the nickyboy scale. It's hard to measure by I'd imagine the vast majority of the population it's down by 75-100%.


----------



## marinyork (4 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> More "oh look how how good are we" government public health policy maybe coming out way.
> https://www.theguardian.com/politic...us-health-passports-for-uk-possible-in-months



That's one half of the back to work policy. 

The other half is something along the lines of https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-peoples-health-at-risk-warns-tuc-coronavirus



> For example, one section says employers could consider limiting how many people are in a vehicle, without saying how many the government considers would be safe.


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

Oh can't beat nicely joined up thinking what can possibly go wrong 
Never mind though at least the government has it all covered by an app.


----------



## fossyant (4 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I was wondering how much the NHS doctors are looking at what we know about the body and how it adapts when it has very low levels of oxygen? A lot could be learnt from high altitude medicine where it’s known people have been exercising perfectly fine above 8400m with blood oxygen sats as low at 54%.



Erm, I'm sure they know. I've personally had stats of just 70% when I broke my back and 4 ribs. I felt fine (I knew it wasn't fine as FIL was dying with stats just below 90%), but that would have been the big doses of morphine talking. Let's say Intensive care was brought to me in the spinal ward. I was OK on oxygen, but as soon as I came of it, 70%.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 May 2020)

fossyant said:


> Erm, I'm sure they know. I've personally had stats of just 70% when I broke my back and 4 ribs. I felt fine (I knew it wasn't fine as FIL was dying with stats just below 90%), but that would have been the big doses of morphine talking. Let's say Intensive care was brought to me in the spinal ward. I was OK on oxygen, but as soon as I came of it, 70%.



You'd be surprised many of them are only used to seeing numbers for sedentary populations and act shocked when they see figures outside the norms they are used to. We are talking people operating at high levels of exertion with only about 6-7% of the air being oxygen. So lungs are drawing in 30% of the oxygen they would at sea level. So imagine your lungs only working at 30% but you can still go about exercising. Maybe some corona infected people who don't get very sick are able to adapt in a similar way high altitude mountaineers do.


----------



## Salty seadog (4 May 2020)

Milzy said:


> Yet people are licking the government's boots saying they're heros. They've got blood on their hands. It's not good enough. It's all good and well saying hindsights a wonderful thing blah blah.



Especially as we had several weeks of foresight watching it unfold in other countries.


----------



## marinyork (4 May 2020)

3h ago 12:40

*Cases in Germany likely to be 10 times higher than official number, researchers conclude*
More than 10 times as many people in *Germany*have probably been infected with the coronavirus than the number of confirmed cases, researchers from the University of Bonn have concluded from a field trial in one of the worst hit towns.
The preliminary study results, which have yet to be peer reviewed for publication in a scientific journal, serve as a reminder of the dangers of infection by unidentified carriers of the virus, some of whom show no symptoms, the researchers said.
The readings come as Germany took further steps on Monday to ease restrictions, with museums, hairdressers, churches and more car factories reopening under strict conditions.
About 1.8 million people living in Germany must have been infected, more than 10 times the number of about 160,000 confirmed cases so far, the team led by medical researchers Hendrik Streeck and Gunther Hartmann concluded.
“The results can help to further improve the models to calculate how the virus spreads. So far the underlying data has been relatively weak,” Hartmann said in a statement.
The team analysed blood and nasal swabs from a random sample of 919 people living in a town in the municipality of Heinsberg on the Dutch border, which had among the highest death tolls in Germany.
To arrive at their estimate, the researchers put the town’s number of known deaths from Covid-19 relative to the larger estimate of local people with a prior infection – as indicated by antibody blood test readings – and applied the rate of 0.37% to country-wide deaths.
They also found that about one in five of those infected showed no symptoms.

The guardian


----------



## marinyork (4 May 2020)

The above German study is bad news and good news. Hardly any of the population have had the virus. A shockingly low percentage of 2%!!!!! If it was applicable to other countries it would also be bad news.

It could be good news that whatever Germany has done has worked fairly well (again nos from other countries needed).

Interesting study.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 May 2020)

Lung function and oxygen exchange. Might be of interest to a few.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQDy5ZvmBuk&feature=youtu.be


----------



## marinyork (4 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Lung function and oxygen exchange. Might be of interest to a few.
> 
> 
> View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQDy5ZvmBuk&feature=youtu.be




Posted on a cycling forum!


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Posted on a cycling forum!



Indeed many of us are interested in this stuff. I, for one, have also taken part in lung function research studies in the past. So have a keener interest perhaps than many.


----------



## screenman (4 May 2020)

It would seem, coming straight at me from a contact in the USA the virus is not the worry, the New World Order is, honestly that is what many really think.


----------



## screenman (4 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Indeed many of us are interested in this stuff. I, for one, have also taken part in lung function research studies in the past. So have a keener interest perhaps than many.



I have some sort of print out here that says I had the lung function of fit 51 year old and that when I was 62, not sure what it meant or if it was true, it was a test carried out by a nurse at my doctors.


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

Spirometry by any chance ?


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

Hancock says the app has the highest level of privacy build in.
Oh well that will put your mind at rest even the Information Commissioner's Office is not 100% happy.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Hancock says the app has the highest level of privacy build in.
> Oh well that will but your mind at rest even the Information Commissioner's Office is not 100% happy.


His assurances will no doubt pass the 100,000 test. But not mine.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 May 2020)

Again, another not sure what 2m social distancing looks like.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Again, another not sure what 2m social distancing looks like.
> 
> View attachment 519966


That's stark raven mad.


----------



## PK99 (4 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Hancock says the app has the highest level of privacy build in.
> Oh well that will but your mind at rest even the Information Commissioner's Office is not 100% happy.



On the one hand, people criticise the government for not initiating track and trace from the outset*; on the other hand when the government initiate track and trace, people criticise the government on privacy grounds.

On the one hand, people criticise the government for not initiating lockdown earlier; on the other hand folk kick back about lockdown and complain it is overly restrictive and ignore the requirements and predict its early breakdown.

Ah well, I suppose that is the way thing work.

* NB track and trace in the countries that imposed it early, gave the government and police details of individuals movements


----------



## PK99 (4 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Again, another not sure what 2m social distancing looks like.
> 
> View attachment 519966









A coffin is a better measurement


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (4 May 2020)

screenman said:


> It would seem, coming straight at me from a contact in the USA the virus is not the worry, the New World Order is, honestly that is what many really think.



Shocking.



> It would seem, coming straight at me from CycleChat the virus is not the worry, the Tories are, honestly that is what many really think.



Ahhh


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> On the one hand, people criticise the government for not initiating track and trace from the outset*; on the other hand when the government initiate track and trace, people criticise the government on privacy grounds.
> 
> On the one hand, people criticise the government for not initiating lockdown earlier; on the other hand folk kick back about lockdown and complain it is overly restrictive and ignore the requirements and predict its early breakdown.
> 
> ...


Privacy grounds could have been fix from day one they don't need a centralised approach to data 
The government have chosen one that is with very little /no clear information as to who really owns it , runs it , and what they are allowed to do with it. 

So much of health and prehospital care in the last few years has been based on machines that go ping. With little understanding of the bigger clinical picture that's clearly in front of you. It looking more likely that the current public health emergency is just doing more of the same.


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Privacy grounds could have been fix from day one they don't need a centralised approach to data
> The government have chosen one that is with very little /no clear information as to who really owns it , runs it , and what they are allowed to do with it.
> 
> So much of health and prehospital care in the last few years has been based on machines that go ping. With little understanding of the bigger clinical picture that's clearly in front of you. It looking more likely that the current public health emergency is just doing more of the same.


What could they realistically do with your postcode though?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> What could they realistically do with your postcode though?



That’s not how it’ll work. Its a contact tracing app so it will know every single contact you’ve had, when, and for how long. It’s needs to do that for around 80% of population for it to be effective. It’s being centralised. So all that data is available centralised and may be used for purposes well beyond its remit even if not hacked by a hostile third party. It’s a spy agency’s or totalitarian state‘s wet dream to know that much about 80% of the population of the UK.


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> What could they realistically do with your postcode though?



The post code is only thing your asked when you sign up. The rest of the information is taken later when think you many have symptoms.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (4 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> The post code is only thing your asked when you sign up. The rest of the information is taken later when think you many have symptoms.



What other information is taken - I can't find much about it.


----------



## Mo1959 (4 May 2020)

I’m not one of these people that is permanently glued to my phone and often go out without it so seems a bit pointless for me.


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> That’s not how it’ll work. Its a contact tracing app so it will know every single contact you’ve had, when, and for how long. It’s needs to do that for around 80% of population for it to be effective. It’s being centralised. So all that data is available centralised and may be used for purposes well beyond its remit even if not hacked by a hostile third party. It’s a spy agency’s or totalitarian state‘s wet dream to know that much about 80% of the population of the UK.


The spy agency is welcome to the knowledge that I spent 8 hours at work before cycling home again then repeating the next 4 days. I honestly wouldn't mind that if it helped track down the virus.


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> The post code is only thing your asked when you sign up. The rest of the information is taken later when think you many have symptoms.


Don't give them anymore.


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I’m not one of these people that is permanently glued to my phone and often go out without it so seems a bit pointless for me.


My entire life used to be reliant upon it so now it isn't I quite enjoy being phone free but if it helps I'll quite happily go back to having it on me constantly.


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> What other information is taken - I can't find much about it.



Name address ect the standard stuff but on top of that every single contact you’ve had, when, and for how long. 
A complete picture of your known movements. Google would wet themselves to able to publicly in the open own and control stuff like this it's priceless data. All with no questions asked. 

It just brings into question so many thing which without a law to control it is going to make it a total free fro all. 
Australia are now putting in place legislation to control the one they have. 
As it stands we have nothing to stop anyone withholding goods or services who refuses to use it or employers who require it before you can go to work 

https://www.adalovelaceinstitute.or...isos-for-a-Contact-Tracing-App-4-May-2020.pdf


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> Don't give them anymore.


You can't that's the point it's how the app works. 
If you don't want to give them anymore you wont use the app in the 1st place.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> View attachment 519967
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Bit awkward carrying it on all my walks though and what about people who live alone?


----------



## vickster (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> The spy agency is welcome to the knowledge that I spent 8 hours at work before cycling home again then repeating the next 4 days. I honestly wouldn't mind that if it helped track down the virus.


Indeed. It’s not like the government doesn’t already have access to bucket loads of information if it wants... if you use the Internet, use the NHS, pay tax, have a job, have a passport, a bank account, a mobile phone, a wearable etc etc etc

If people don’t want to download the app, then don’t, it won’t be compulsory


----------



## SpokeyDokey (4 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Name address ect the standard stuff but on top of that every single contact you’ve had, when, and for how long.
> A complete picture of your known movements. Google would wet themselves to able to publicly in the open own and control stuff like this it's priceless data. All with no questions asked.
> 
> It just brings into question so many thing which without a law to control it is going to make it a total free fro all.
> ...



OK thanks.

We're all very different but I can honestly say that wouldn't bother me in the slightest. I'll just be happy to have the App and do my bit to slow down the spread of CV and help protect the NHS and save lives etc.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 May 2020)

You couldn’t make it up.

https://metro.co.uk/video/american-woman-cuts-hole-face-mask-make-easier-breathe-2164644/


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> You can't that's the point it's how the app works.
> If you don't want to give them anymore you wont use the app in the 1st place.





SpokeyDokey said:


> OK thanks.
> 
> We're all very different but I can honestly say that wouldn't bother me in the slightest. I'll just be happy to have the App and do my bit to slow down the spread of CV and help protect the NHS and save lives etc.


Apparently they are going to have a look at the app on ITV now.


----------



## mjr (4 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Indeed. It’s not like the government doesn’t already have access to bucket loads of information if it wants... if you use the Internet, use the NHS, pay tax, have a job, have a passport, a bank account, a mobile phone, a wearable etc etc etc


And there are laws restricting use and combination of that data, with prison terms for the worst. Laws which don't cover this app.



> If people don’t want to download the app, then don’t, it won’t be compulsory


At best, the private people who refuse this needlessly centralised tracker will get emotional blackmail and abuse for not "saving lives". At worst, they may be banned from some spaces and services as government and good-intention idiots tries to "encourage" usage to reach the 50-90% level needed for it to work. This is evil, bad and wrong, exploiting a pandemic to track residents.


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> Apparently they are going to have a look at the app on ITV now.


Well if they did I must have missed it.


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> The spy agency is welcome to the knowledge that I spent 8 hours at work before cycling home again then repeating the next 4 days. I honestly wouldn't mind that if it helped track down the virus.






SpokeyDokey said:


> OK thanks.
> 
> We're all very different but I can honestly say that wouldn't bother me in the slightest. I'll just be happy to have the App and do my bit to slow down the spread of CV and help protect the NHS and save lives etc.



But it wont that's the point they need 80% user rate no other county has come close. 
An app won't get us out of this it won't replace boots on the ground. We been going contact tracing for year and still do day in day out with out an app but thanks to cuts from all colour governments it's been hollowed out that much that when something big comes along it's not able to cope. Hence the mad dash to find 18,000 more.


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> But it wont that's the point they need 80% user rate no other county has come close.
> An app won't get us out of this it won't replace boots on the ground. We been going contact tracing for year and still do day in day out with out an app but thanks to cuts from all colour governments it's been hollowed out that much that when something big comes along it's not able to cope. Hence the mad dash to find 18,000 more.


I did hear them say it took something like 11 years to get WhatsApp up to say 60% so what chance has the app got? I'll wait until it happens and decide then. 👍


----------



## All uphill (4 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Again, another not sure what 2m social distancing looks like.
> 
> View attachment 519966


Are ravens covids?


----------



## Julia9054 (4 May 2020)

All uphill said:


> Are ravens covids?


Corvids


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Corvids



Corvid 19s?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Corvid 19s?


If 4 ravens are 6 ft, how long is corvid 19?


----------



## Inertia (4 May 2020)

vickster said:


> If people don’t want to download the app, then don’t, it won’t be compulsory


Of course but I thought the more people are, on the system, the more effective it is. Telling peple they dont have to use it does us no good, we _want_ them to use it. There should be as few barriers to its use as we can possibly give.

At what point do the benefits of this centalised system become outweighed by the loss of people who decide its not worth it?


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> Of course but I thought the more people are, on the system, the more effective it is. There should be as few barriers to its use as we can possibly give.
> 
> At what point do the benefits of this centalised system become outweighed by the loss of people who decide its not worth it?


I reckon when the virus knocks on their door they will maybe wish they downloaded it.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> I reckon when the virus knocks on their door they will maybe wish they downloaded it.


What I'll wish for is that the people responsible for it were capable of telling the truth.


----------



## Inertia (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> I reckon when the virus knocks on their door they will maybe wish they downloaded it.


We may all wish they had downloaded it and it wont do us any good then either. and we may also wish we hadnt given them reason not to use it.


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> What I'll wish for is that the people responsible for it were capable of telling the truth.


We will just go round in circles with this.


----------



## Buck (4 May 2020)

*The government’s coronavirus contact tracing app has so far failed the tests needed to be included in the NHS app library, HSJ understands.*

The app is being trialed on the Isle of Wight this week, ahead of a national rollout later this month. Senior NHS sources told _HSJ it _had thus far failed all of the tests required for inclusion in the app library, including cyber security, performance and clinical safety.

There are also concerns at high levels about how users’ privacy will be protected once they log that they have coronavirus symptoms, and become “traceable”, and how this information will be used.

Senior figures told _HSJ_ that it had been hard to assess the app because the government was “going about it in a kind of a hamfisted way. They haven’t got clear versions, so it’s been impossible to get fixed code base from them for NHS Digital to test. They keep changing it all over the place”.

_HSJ_’s source described the app as “a bit wobbly”, but added that it was not a “big disaster” the app will not be included in the official NHS store at this stage, because it is at an early development stage. However, they also expressed concern about whether it will be able to pass in the near future.

The NHS Apps Library showcases dozens of approved apps which are assessed against a range of NHS standards. Products are assessed against national standards, regulation and industry best practice before they are approved for the library. Developers are asked questions on areas such as clinical safety, data protection and security, depending on the complexity of the technology.

Once the Isle of Wight trial is complete, the app will be referred back to NHS Digital, which runs the app store, for further assessment. During the government’s daily covid-19 briefing yesterday, Cabinet minister Michael Gove said it was hoped that more than half of the 80,000 households on the Isle of Wight would download the app.

The app will use Bluetooth technology to register a “contact” when people come within 6ft of each other for at least 15 minutes. If someone develops symptoms of coronavirus they inform the app and an alert will be sent to other people they have been in close contact with.

Concerns regarding the app’s privacy and information governance have been discussed nationally. Senior NHS sources have raised concerns that the app could risk public trust if privacy protection is overlooked, particularly when people using the app log themselves as having symptoms and therefore become traceable.

A senior NHS national source told _HSJ_: “The real problem is the government initially started saying it was a ‘privacy-preserving highly anonymous app’, but it quite clearly isn’t going to be… When you use the app and you’re not [covid-19] positive in the early stages, you’re just exchanging signals between two machines… But the second you say, ‘actually I’m positive’, that has to go back up to the government server, where it starts to track you versus other people.”

A spokesman for NHSX said the National Data Guardian’s panel had been consulted on the plans and the data collected by the app would only be used for NHS care, evaluation and research. An independent assurance board involving experts in mobile apps, data governance and clinical safety has also been set up to monitor the production of the app.

An NHS Digital spokesman said apps were not normally assessed for the app store during the earlier stages of testing and, although it has been asked to carry out early assessments already, that further reviews would take place after the piloting.


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> We may all wish they had downloaded it and it wont do us any good then either. and we may also wish we hadnt given them reason not to use it.


Why take the risk then with your first point and I've yet to hear a reason why I shouldn't download it in reality.


----------



## Inertia (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> Why take the risk then with your first point and I've yet to hear a reason why I shouldn't download it in reality.


You have heard reasons but they are not a concern for you, that doesnt mean its not a concern for other people


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 May 2020)

Buck said:


> *The government’s coronavirus contact tracing app has so far failed the tests needed to be included in the NHS app library, HSJ understands.*
> 
> The app is being trialed on the Isle of Wight this week, ahead of a national rollout later this month. Senior NHS sources told _HSJ it _had thus far failed all of the tests required for inclusion in the app library, including cyber security, performance and clinical safety.
> 
> ...


"The highest level of privacy is built in." Says Hancock. Hmm, which to believe, a known liar or the above text? It's a toughie.


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> You have heard reasons but they are not a concern for you, that doesnt mean its not a concern for other people


Yeah, that's true. Hopefully when the testing is completed the same will be said for 80% of the population. We will just have to wait and see.


----------



## Inertia (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> Yeah, that's true. Hopefully when the testing is completed the same will be said for 80% of the population. We will just have to wait and see.


I agree and I hope they will alleviate those concerns. government of any stripes track record on IT doesnt fill me with confidence though


----------



## SpokeyDokey (4 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> "The highest level of privacy is built in." Says Hancock. Hmm, which to believe, a known liar or the above text? It's a toughie.



Also of concern is the fact that the HSJ article does not cite any source by name - it simply mention NHS sources, senior figures, senior NHS national sources etc.

At the very senior level intimated by the HSJ journalist I would've though that a name or names could be linked to such a damning article - looks to me like a page filler bashed out in haste tbh.


----------



## Buck (4 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Also of concern is the fact that the HSJ article does not cite any source by name - it simply mention NHS sources, senior figures, senior NHS national sources etc.
> 
> At the very senior level intimated by the HSJ journalist I would've though that a name or names could be linked to such a damning article - looks to me like a page filler bashed out in haste tbh.



They tend not to name names in their articles - I guess their information is "unofficial" and could get whoever provided the information into trouble - "protecting their sources". Their track record is generally good in terms of their reports being accurate and not just conjecture.


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

So we now have a government app that from day one never complied with Apple or google joint covid tracing privacy rules.
Is unclear who own it, runs it, and has control of the data.
The governments own information commissioner still has questions over.
No law in place to govern it's use , data ownership , or to prevent none use leading to denial of goods, services and employment.
An NHS app that fails to meet NHS data and clinical standards so can't be included in the NHS own app library.
That's even before you get on to inequalities replying on an app to deal with a public health emergency brings.
What can possibly go wrong?
If you want to use it fine go ahead just don't fall for the line that its the right thing to do.
It's way more complex than that but the government is not keen on talking about that.


----------



## mjr (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> Yeah, that's true. Hopefully when the testing is completed the same will be said for 80% of the population. We will just have to wait and see.


I am hoping that I don't live in a country where 80% will surrender to central tracking, even under duress! I'm a bit disappointed any reasonable person is hoping for the opposite frankly.

Here's hoping the NHSX app is so buggy that they decide to use one of the better ones instead! It seems the way most likely to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat on this.


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

mjr said:


> I am hoping that I don't live in a country where 80% will surrender to central tracking, even under duress! I'm a bit disappointed any reasonable person is hoping for the opposite frankly.
> 
> Here's hoping the NHSX app is so buggy that they decide to use one of the better ones instead! It seems the way most likely to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat on this.


Again, we're going round in circles here.


----------



## mjr (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> Again, we're going round in circles here.


To break us out of the loop, maybe you could explain why you feel centralised tracking and a "Not Invented Here" dimissal of other shared apps are good things?


----------



## tom73 (4 May 2020)

Away from the app smoke screen 
what do we keep being told ... PPE is being sent out ..... nothing to see here move along 
GP relying on donated PPE as they've not been sent any since march.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-52529200

Also it looks that the guidelines of last resort that become the current guidelines have on the QT had a update. 
CRP is now no longer seen as a AGP so level 2 mask is fine. 
Both the UK Resuscitation Council , the International Resuscitation Council together with WHO all say it is and full PPE should be used. 
PHE say little science to say it is , ok then but we have no science to say it's not. 
They now leave it down to employers to decided to provide level 3 protection or not. 
Which is fine but that leave's HCP's and care workers in a difficult position preform resus and save a life but that may cost mine or save my life at cost of the patient.


----------



## Slick (4 May 2020)

mjr said:


> To break us out of the loop, maybe you could explain why you feel centralised tracking and a "Not Invented Here" dimissal of other shared apps are good things?


My attitude is maybe because an old school mate lost his life over the weekend so I'm not overly concerned if 007 is going to find out who I play golf with on a Saturday morning.


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (4 May 2020)

Apologies if this has already been comprehensively talked about but can someone explain why the UK’s covid-19 deaths are set to overtake Italy and become the second-highest in the world? Is it our demographics and are we particularly elderly / vulnerable? Is it all to do with the initial herd immunity response and delayed lockdown? It just seems very strange.


----------



## mjr (4 May 2020)

Slick said:


> My attitude is maybe because an old school mate lost his life over the weekend so I'm not overly concerned if 007 is going to find out who I play golf with on a Saturday morning.


That seems like going around in circles about why you feel it doesn't matter to you, not why you think it's a good thing. Maybe you don't think it's a good thing - we'd go around in circles less if you came out and posted that.

Leaving aside the 007 bogus epithet (That Hancock is not 007, or at least I bloody hope he isn't or we've got big problems), your view about your own use of the app is understandable in a way from where you're starting, but surely you should also be wanting the most palatable useful app so it stands the best possible chance of reaching critical mass and not being a complete waste of its users' time and resources?

I just feel it seems a gross insult to all those who have died and will die needlessly if central tracking of users is put before widespread adoption and public safety.


----------



## mjr (4 May 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> Apologies if this has already been comprehensively talked about but can someone explain why the UK’s covid-19 deaths are set to overtake Italy and become the second-highest in the world? Is it our demographics and are we particularly elderly / vulnerable? Is it all to do with the initial herd immunity response and delayed lockdown? It just seems very strange.


Be cautious about precise international comparisons based on the national headline numbers, rather than the adjusted estimates which organisations like Euromomo and the WHO might publish in months or years to come. I'm not sure how Italy's counting methods compare to the UK's - maybe @marinyork or someone else knows?

That said, we're not doing well. The reasons why the UK's death toll might be unnecessarily high are not all to do with delayed lockdown and the bad examples set by government ministers. The delay in testing is probably another factor, as are ignoring care homes from the headline figures for a long time and seeming to be slow to mobilise the armed forces to the full extent seen in other countries.

This from Boris's employer has aged badly: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-latest/


----------



## icowden (5 May 2020)

mjr said:


> That seems like going around in circles about why you feel it doesn't matter to you, not why you think it's a good thing. Maybe you don't think it's a good thing - we'd go around in circles less if you came out and posted that.



Maybe we should look from other directions. Why is it a bad thing? Is whether it is a good thing or a bad thing important? If it does no harm to the user, what is the disbenefit to using and promoting the app?

On the other hand I do agree with you that we should be promoting the palatable and useful app possible in order to achieve take up. It's also concerning that the Government seem to have no clue that the NHS has standards and that the app does not meet them in its current form.


----------



## Slick (5 May 2020)

That seems like going around in circles about why you feel it doesn't matter to you, not why you think it's a good thing. Maybe you don't think it's a good thing - we'd go around in circles less if you came out and posted that.

*The reasons I feel that it doesn't matter to me is that i think more data will be lost downloading candy crush or whatever than using this app and I'm also at least willing to wait until the testing is completed before deciding if it's a good thing or not. The government knowing who I'm in contact with is of very little consequence to me.*

Leaving aside the 007 bogus epithet (That Hancock is not 007, or at least I bloody hope he isn't or we've got big problems), your view about your own use of the app is understandable in a way from where you're starting, but surely you should also be wanting the most palatable useful app so it stands the best possible chance of reaching critical mass and not being a complete waste of its users' time and resources?

*Of course, and I hope that it will be by the time NHS give it the go ahead*. 

I just feel it seems a gross insult to all those who have died and will die needlessly if central tracking of users is put before widespread adoption and public safety.

*My focus would be more on the success and failure of the app but if as you say this would have a better chance of success then yes go another route but if surrendering minor personal data to the government and our NHS is the cost then I can live with it if it helps achieve what we all want.*


----------



## Levo-Lon (5 May 2020)

Watching BBC news, I don't think the travel industry will be popular for a while if it involves flying.
I don't fly anymore but anyone remotely anxious will be avoiding the skies.

Will we even have a travel industry in a year's time ?


----------



## Slick (5 May 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Watching BBC news, I don't think the travel industry will be popular for a while if it involves flying.
> I don't fly anymore but anyone remotely anxious will be avoiding the skies


I watched it. Aer Lingus squeezing all the usual number of passengers on that plane is disappointing at best.


----------



## Slick (5 May 2020)

mjr said:


> That seems like going around in circles about why you feel it doesn't matter to you, not why you think it's a good thing. Maybe you don't think it's a good thing - we'd go around in circles less if you came out and posted that.
> 
> Leaving aside the 007 bogus epithet (That Hancock is not 007, or at least I bloody hope he isn't or we've got big problems), your view about your own use of the app is understandable in a way from where you're starting, but surely you should also be wanting the most palatable useful app so it stands the best possible chance of reaching critical mass and not being a complete waste of its users' time and resources?
> 
> I just feel it seems a gross insult to all those who have died and will die needlessly if central tracking of users is put before widespread adoption and public safety.


I found this interesting and pretty balanced.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nhs-covid-19-tracking-app-contact-tracing


----------



## Andy in Germany (5 May 2020)

Oops, Wrong thread...

Nothing to see here...


----------



## newfhouse (5 May 2020)

There’s a very readable and informative blog about the development of the app from Ian Levy, NCSC‘s Technical Director. It discusses some of the technical and architectural choices made, and promises that the source code will be published, eventually - whatever that means.

I found it answered many of my questions, triggered a whole lot more, but on the whole was reasonably reassuring (to me) about the reasons for the design decisions. There is obviously still a trust issue regarding data retention, dispersal, etc. but I have the same wariness about all of the data the NHS and other government departments hold.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (5 May 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> Apologies if this has already been comprehensively talked about but can someone explain why the UK’s covid-19 deaths are set to overtake Italy and become the second-highest in the world? Is it our demographics and are we particularly elderly / vulnerable? Is it all to do with the initial herd immunity response and delayed lockdown? It just seems very strange.


There are several reasons. In no particular order:

No government planning for civil emergencies
An underfunded health service
No compulsory quarantine for arrivals from affected areas
Delay in applying lockdown
A high proportion of the population with underlying health conditions
High density of population
Poor air quality

A perfect storm, ready and waiting.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 May 2020)

Something to further my suspicion that covid-19 was around for weeks before we knew what it was. 4 days before most of us had heard of Wuhan, a French death, classed as pneumonia, has revealed evidence of CV19. This death was on 27 December. BBC World Service covered it this morning and the Guardian also has an article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tal-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested


----------



## Andy in Germany (5 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> With the contact tracing app set to go live within weeks it ... ...It still look's and sounds like a total privacy mess not to mention the rest.
> ...
> If people don't trust they won't use it.
> ...
> Most people never worried about Cambridge Analytica till they had to. Centrally controlled data is not a great selling point.





Adam4868 said:


> ...public trust in this goverment and transparency ? They don't have a great track record for me.



And here is the problem: I suspect the people who hired these companies to harvest illegal data thought it was a great wheeze, but they squandered what little trust remained, just before a crisis turned up that required their citizens to trust them.



Rusty Nails said:


> The responsibility has to be shared between us and the government. Neither side can sort it on their own.
> I can blame the government for its response, but I can also blame the public for not fully accepting and sticking to the restrictions.



I see the point, but after the way the government, or individuals now in government have treated the citizens of the UK in recent years, I'm not surprised that people doesn't trust them or see any reason to follow what they say. 

In the current situation the government is not only morally bankrupt and incompetent, it gives the impression that it's more interested in using the crisis for its own goals than helping its citizens. Given this track record and their current behaviour I'm not surprised that people are not following the government's recommendations.

Understand, I'm not saying it's acceptable that people aren't following the regulations, but if the government spends years acting illegally, peddling lies as truth, contradicting itself, then dismissing experts when it doesn't suit them, than they shouldn't be surprised when a real problem comes up and they discover that they don't have much credibility: shared responsibility requires shared trust.



MrGrumpy said:


> Just to put another slant on current events, there were more deaths from suicide last month than Covid in my home county  .



There will be more: this crisis is causing, and hiding, a mental and psychological health crisis.


----------



## kingrollo (5 May 2020)

So the Israel is reckon to have found an effective treatment ....good .....but wonder what the terms of a supply deal might include ?


----------



## pawl (5 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> We may all wish they had downloaded it and it wont do us any good then either. and we may also wish we hadnt given them reason not to use it.




Give people something else to download other than which Costa Coffee or B&Q is open


----------



## PK99 (5 May 2020)

This from 29 March and posted previously, is relevant to all the tracking knicker twisting going on at the moment:

_It was 7am when James Fox was dragged from his slumbers by an incessant ringing on the doorbell of his flat in the Taiwanese capital where he was undergoing a 14-day coronavirus quarantine.

Still groggy with sleep, the American university researcher opened the door to find an irate policeman who instantly began to berate him in rapid-fire Chinese. “I had no idea why because I couldn’t understand what he was saying. It was a very frightening experience,” he recalled.

Mr Fox’s mistake had been to switch his mobile phone onto "airplane" mode in order to get a good night’s sleep, unwittingly dropping off the Taiwanese government’s electronic surveillance grid for those being quarantined after arriving from overseas.

The knock at the door came despite Mr Fox receiving two calls a day from a government-assigned social worker to check that he had not developed Covid-19 symptoms after a recent trip to Iceland.

*His experience, shared on a Facebook group, offered a flicker of insight into the extent that some governments are prepared to go to suppress the spread of Covid-19, raising profound questions for Western democracies about how the state, big data and society should intersect as the global pandemic takes hold.*_


----------



## newfhouse (5 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> This from 29 March and posted previously, is relevant to all the tracking knicker twisting going on at the moment:


How does that inform the debate about the choices made by the developers and sponsors of the UK app? “Don’t worry, it could be worse” doesn’t really help me to decide whether to install or use it.


----------



## mjr (5 May 2020)

newfhouse said:


> There’s a very readable and informative blog about the development of the app from Ian Levy, NCSC‘s Technical Director.


Ironically, it refuses to display if browser security isn't relaxed. I'll read it when I'm at a sandbox computer. Thanks.


----------



## newfhouse (5 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Ironically, it refuses to display if browser security isn't relaxed. I'll read it when I'm at a sandbox computer. Thanks.


And some more interesting reading here from Ross Anderson, someone whose opinions I have learned to value over many years.


----------



## randynewmanscat (5 May 2020)

France saw its first covid 19 patient in December according to doctors. The 24th of January was presumed to be the first case. The surprising factor is that the patient had no travel history in the months after August 2019. They are speculating that community transmission was already occuring during December.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643?via=ihub#!


----------



## randynewmanscat (5 May 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> And here is the problem: I suspect the people who hired these companies to harvest illegal data thought it was a great wheeze, but they squandered what little trust remained, just before a crisis turned up that required their citizens to trust them.


I think the blowback from the Cambridge Analytica scandal will cast a shadow for years. No criminal trials, no apologies, a £15,000 fine for the owners. I sympathise with people turned away from politics and trust in governance, this matter alone is sufficient for me. The employees of Cambridge Analytica were still excoriating the journalists who described ways in which they misused data just days before the plug was pulled on the firm.
The government said next to nothing of substance on the matter.


----------



## Unkraut (5 May 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> but if the government spends years acting illegally, peddling lies as truth, contradicting itself, then dismissing experts when it doesn't suit them, than they shouldn't be surprised when a real problem comes up and they discover that they don't have much credibility: shared responsibility requires shared trust.


Isn't this a classic case of reaping what you have sown. It's not just the way a certain debate was conducted over the last 4 years, but also if you elect a one-issue populist don't be surprised if he turns out to be incapable of making unpopular, but necessary, decisions. 

The job of PM entails this, and you have to be prepared to make decisions, maybe even against your normal party policy in the manifesto in some circumstances, and take the mauling you will get from the opposition in Parliament.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> France saw its first covid 19 patient in December according to doctors. The 24th of January was presumed to be the first case. The surprising factor is that the patient had no travel history in the months after August 2019. They are speculating that community transmission was already occuring during December.
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643?via=ihub#!


Yes, I heard that on the BBC World Service this morning. 27 December. I posted a Guardian link earlier today.


----------



## Andy in Germany (5 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> So we now have a government app that from day one never complied with Apple or goggles joint covid tracing privacy rules.
> Is unclear who own it, runs it, and has control of the data.
> The governments own information commissioner still has questions over.
> No law in place to govern it's use , data ownership , or to prevent none use leading to denial of goods, services and employment.
> An NHS app that fails to meet NHS data and clinical standards so can't be included in the NHS own app library.



Seems legit...

I'm not sure how the 'track and trace' thing is being done here, or of they use an app. Perhaps @Unkraut can advise, being more technologically savvy than I?


----------



## Andy in Germany (5 May 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Isn't this a classic case of reaping what you have sown.



Thanks, that's what I was trying to say, in one pithy sentence...


----------



## tom73 (5 May 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Seems legit...
> 
> I'm not sure how the 'track and trace' thing is being done here, or of they use an app. Perhaps @Unkraut can advise, being more technologically savvy than I?


Germany and France locked horns with Apple and Google last week and pushed for them to back down. 
Germany 2 days later changed it's stance and now is working on a decentralised approach.
It not clear if it's building it's own or joining Switzerland, Austria, and Estonia on decentralised privacy-preserving proximity tracing (DP-3T)
https://appleinsider.com/articles/2...tance-on-apple-google-contact-tracing-project


----------



## Beebo (5 May 2020)

UK now has the highest death toll in Europe. 

How did we manage to cock it up more than Italy and Spain?


----------



## vickster (5 May 2020)

Beebo said:


> UK now has the highest death toll in Europe.
> 
> How did we manage to cock it up more than Italy and Spain?


Exactly same stats being compared?

There are ~20m more people in the UK compared to Spain and around 7m more than Italy - need to compare taking population into account ideally (and count in the exact same way). 
Also need to understand the impact of gender, ethnicity, genetics, morbidity on deaths and how countries look in terms of these measures. Lots of numbers for epidemiologists to look at once the outbreak is over for sure!
And it's far from over it seems


----------



## mjr (5 May 2020)

Beebo said:


> UK now has the highest death toll in Europe.
> 
> How did we manage to cock it up more than Italy and Spain?


See also two earlier replies, first at https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5982538


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## Joey Shabadoo (5 May 2020)

Beebo said:


> UK now has the highest death toll in Europe.
> 
> How did we manage to cock it up more than Italy and Spain?



Really?







https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Exactly same stats being compared?
> 
> There are ~20m more people in the UK compared to Spain and around 7m more than Italy - need to compare taking population into account ideally (and count in the exact same way).
> Also need to understand the impact of gender, ethnicity, genetics, morbidity on deaths and how countries look in terms of these measures. Lots of numbers for epidemiologists to look at once the outbreak is over for sure!
> And it's far from over it seems


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ gives a deaths per million figure. Note though that a good number of deaths are likely to be recorded as pneumonia, plus the latest ONS figures have not yet been incorporated into today's record.


----------



## mjr (5 May 2020)

vickster said:


> There are ~20m more people in the UK compared to Spain and around 7m more than Italy - need to compare taking population into account ideally (and count in the exact same way).


That's debatable: "per million population" comparisons are most relevant when you think the size of population is a limiting factor in each country being compared. It's arguably misleading in the early stages of an outbreak when the illness hasn't reached all of a country.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Really?
> 
> View attachment 520072
> 
> ...


2 of the 3 highest per capita deaths countries don't figure on that list. San Marino and Andorra have presumably been incorporated into Spain and Italy's figures.


----------



## Andy in Germany (5 May 2020)

Beebo said:


> UK now has the highest death toll in Europe.
> 
> How did we manage to cock it up more than Italy and Spain?



Underfunding the health service for ten years hasn't helped, nor has taking away social security because that means the general health of the population will decrease, along with immunity. This is partly because people's immunity goes down when they can't eat properly and have no access to hot water, or their apartment is cold all winter. It is also because people struggling to survive normally, and there a lot of them, are psychologically under a lot of pressure, which also affects immunity.

On top of this, people incapable of independently maintaining a daily routine, diet, personal hygiene et c either permanently or for because of illness, aren't getting the assistance in this they require.

Turns out that when you gut the social security and health system to follow a political agenda there are consequences.


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## gavroche (5 May 2020)

That's the problem with statistics, they can interpret them anyway you like and whatever suits you.


----------



## Beebo (5 May 2020)

gavroche said:


> That's the problem with statistics, they can interpret them anyway you like and whatever suits you.


I’d like to see someone attempt to spin it positively. 
We are an island nation who had a two week head start on Italy.


----------



## lane (5 May 2020)

All this talk if social distance at work. Two guys just come to dig up the road. Came in same van working very closely together. No social distancing whatever.


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## Andy in Germany (5 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Exactly same stats being compared?



Good question: is the UK still only recording hospital deaths? I thought they now included care homes but I'm not sure.


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## vickster (5 May 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Good question: is the UK still only recording hospital deaths? I thought they now included care homes but I'm not sure.


All deaths from CV19 now


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## Andy in Germany (5 May 2020)

vickster said:


> All deaths from CV19 now



How do we know oif not everyone with symptoms has been tested?


----------



## tom73 (5 May 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Good question: is the UK still only recording hospital deaths? I thought they now included care homes but I'm not sure.


No it's all being recorded 
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths


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## vickster (5 May 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> How do we know oif not everyone with symptoms has been tested?


You’ll never know for sure what caused the death. They’re testing people in hospitals and care homes as far as I understand. Difference between died with Vs due to (another metric that needs to be comparable)
Example - lots of men die with prostate cancer, in far fewer it’s the (primary) cause of death


----------



## kingrollo (5 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Exactly same stats being compared?
> 
> There are ~20m more people in the UK compared to Spain and around 7m more than Italy - need to compare taking population into account ideally (and count in the exact same way).
> Also need to understand the impact of gender, ethnicity, genetics, morbidity on deaths and how countries look in terms of these measures. Lots of numbers for epidemiologists to look at once the outbreak is over for sure!
> And it's far from over it seems


That's all true - but the headline fact remains IMO.


----------



## tom73 (5 May 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> How do we know oif not everyone with symptoms has been tested?



NOS figures are deaths registered where “COVID-19” is mentioned on death certificates. 
DOHS figures are deaths from ones tested positive for COVID-19


----------



## kingrollo (5 May 2020)

lane said:


> All this talk if social distance at work. Two guys just come to dig up the road. Came in same van working very closely together. No social distancing whatever.


Seen the same the weekend.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (5 May 2020)

Apparently Italy's stats don't include care home deaths.

Regardless of which, it's not some kind of death league with macabre cheerleaders whooping as nations move up and down the table. It's a global crisis.


----------



## lane (5 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Seen the same the weekend.



Now even more people and vans. Employers won't bother about social distancing. Just risk assessment and "as far as reasonable practicable". Employees won't bother either same as H&S.


----------



## Rusty Nails (5 May 2020)

gavroche said:


> That's the problem with statistics, they can interpret them anyway you like and whatever suits you.



And rely on the consistency/accuracy of those compiling the statistics in every country.

And of course everyone is doing it right, except us.


----------



## Rusty Nails (5 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Seen the same the weekend.



And you will see the same next weekend, and the following one...................

It cannot and will not be stopped entirely.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (5 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Apparently Italy's stats don't include care home deaths.
> 
> Regardless of which, it's not some kind of death league with macabre cheerleaders whooping as nations move up and down the table. It's a global crisis.


It is useful to look at the experiences of other countries and consider what should or could be done better.


----------



## lane (5 May 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> It is useful to look at the experiences of other countries and consider what should or could be done better.



I think that is fairly obvious now.


----------



## marinyork (5 May 2020)

https://www.gov.uk/government/group...mergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

Behavioural Science stuff included in the SPI-B papers.

Guardian's summary https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...black-market-in-fake-coronavirus-test-results


----------



## Rocky (5 May 2020)

I developed Covid symptoms on Thursday. I booked a test on Friday night - I live with an NHS GP - the nearest centre was Coventry (60 miles away) at the Ricoh Stadium. I turned up (with the Prof) at the allotted time of 8.30am. It was chaos. They were only doing self-administered tests. Luckily the Prof has taken a few swabs in her time. In my addled state, I found the instructions almost impossible to understand. Again luckily I had someone with me.

Three and a half days later, I haven’t received the results. My symptoms are getting better and hopefully I’m on the mend.

Based on my experience of Covid testing, I have serious concerns about the effectiveness of the whole process. There’ll be many in the 8.30-9.00am shift at the Ricoh feeling the same as me. This process is too important not to work.


----------



## kingrollo (5 May 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> It is useful to look at the experiences of other countries and consider what should or could be done better.



Its not just the stats though is - there were some polls at the weekend where a high % of the uk thought the UK had acted too slowly - numerous reports around the world have criticised the uk approach - there was a report a couple of weeks back that predicted the UK would be the worst hit country in Europe - there isn't much opinion that the UK has handled this crisis well.
So yeah you can say x country doesn't include this - etc - but there is a growing mountain of evidence that the UK got its approach wrong - and thats showing in the death totals


----------



## kingrollo (5 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I developed Covid symptoms on Thursday. I booked a test on Friday night - I live with an NHS GP - the nearest centre was Coventry (60 miles away) at the Ricoh Stadium. I turned up (with the Prof) at the allotted time of 8.30am. It was chaos. They were only doing self-administered tests. Luckily the Prof has taken a few swabs in her time. In my addled state, I found the instructions almost impossible to understand. Again luckily I had someone with me.
> 
> Three and a half days later, I haven’t received the results. My symptoms are getting better and hopefully I’m on the mend.
> 
> Based on my experience of Covid testing, I have serious concerns about the effectiveness of the whole process. There’ll be many in the 8.30-9.00am shift at the Ricoh feeling the same as me. This process is too important not to work.



Quantity not quality perhaps ? (or maybe not even the quantity!)


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## Rocky (5 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Quantity not quality perhaps ? (or maybe not even the quantity!)


Or quantity and quality, if the UK is trying to run a test, track and trace strategy.


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## All uphill (5 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Or quantity and quality, if the UK is trying to run a test, track and trace strategy.


Best wishes for your continued recovery, @Brompton Bruce


----------



## Julia9054 (5 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I developed Covid symptoms on Thursday. I booked a test on Friday night - I live with an NHS GP - the nearest centre was Coventry (60 miles away) at the Ricoh Stadium. I turned up (with the Prof) at the allotted time of 8.30am. It was chaos. They were only doing self-administered tests. Luckily the Prof has taken a few swabs in her time. In my addled state, I found the instructions almost impossible to understand. Again luckily I had someone with me.
> 
> Three and a half days later, I haven’t received the results. My symptoms are getting better and hopefully I’m on the mend.
> 
> Based on my experience of Covid testing, I have serious concerns about the effectiveness of the whole process. There’ll be many in the 8.30-9.00am shift at the Ricoh feeling the same as me. This process is too important not to work.


I hope you feel better soon. A friend from work developed all the classic symptoms 7 days after she had been in school on rota.
She went for a test and had a similar experience to yours. She had to take her own swab. The results arrived 2 days later - negative. She has no confidence in the process, the result or her ability to take her own swab properly.


----------



## Rusty Nails (5 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I hope you feel better soon. A friend from work developed all the classic symptoms 7 days after she had been in school on rota.
> She went for a test and had a similar experience to yours. She had to take her own swab. The results arrived 2 days later - negative. She has no confidence in the process, the result or her ability to take her own swab properly.



Ah, but we reached the testing target by the day promised (just, with a little bit of creative accounting) so what's the problem?


----------



## marinyork (5 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Ah, but we reached the testing target by the day promised (just, with a little bit of creative accounting) so what's the problem?



The rush to meet the target may be indicative of experiences.

My father had a third covid-19 test from a professional nose-sticker-upper last Monday at a mobile site 4 miles away. The results came back Weds. There were only three cars there though. Slightly different. I'd be even less confident of my Dad doing a self administered test than BB would be.


----------



## tom73 (5 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I developed Covid symptoms on Thursday. I booked a test on Friday night - I live with an NHS GP - the nearest centre was Coventry (60 miles away) at the Ricoh Stadium. I turned up (with the Prof) at the allotted time of 8.30am. It was chaos. They were only doing self-administered tests. Luckily the Prof has taken a few swabs in her time. In my addled state, I found the instructions almost impossible to understand. Again luckily I had someone with me.
> 
> Three and a half days later, I haven’t received the results. My symptoms are getting better and hopefully I’m on the mend.
> 
> Based on my experience of Covid testing, I have serious concerns about the effectiveness of the whole process. There’ll be many in the 8.30-9.00am shift at the Ricoh feeling the same as me. This process is too important not to work.



Hope your feeling well soon and that turns out to be one of them things and not covid.

Your experience is much like i've been hearing I've seen for myself when walking past a pop up test centre how much of a total shambles it all is. Like you say it's too important to be set up and allowed to be like this. It's of little use having this testing if the failure rate is high which is more than likely.


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## marinyork (5 May 2020)

Slightly different news from Sicily wanting people to go on holiday

https://www.theguardian.com/travel/...days-as-italy-considers-reopening-to-tourists


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## marinyork (5 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Hope your feeling well soon and that turns out to be one of them things and not covid.
> 
> Your experience is much like i've been hearing I've seen for myself when walking past a pop up test centre how much of a total shambles it all is. Like you say it's too important to be set up and allowed to be like this. It's of little use having this testing if the failure rate is high which is more than likely.



It still hasn't been explained to this day why some people are tested more than once in the same day in large numbers.


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## Edwardoka (5 May 2020)

Beebo said:


> I’d like to see someone attempt to spin it positively.
> We are an island nation who had a two week head start on Italy.


^ So very much this.

The UK has no excuse, as an island with in-built infrastructure at all points of entry affording us the opportunity to implement screening and contact tracing on day 0.

We were so slow to react, and even when mobilisation did start, it was with largely ineffectual, advisory measures.
It has only taken us, what, 6 weeks to overhaul a 2 week head start?


----------



## kingrollo (5 May 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> ^ So very much this.
> 
> The UK has no excuse, as an island with in-built infrastructure at all points of entry affording us the opportunity to implement screening and contact tracing on day 0.
> 
> ...


Yeah you can't tell that to Eddie electrician in his white van though "gud job that Corbyn weren in churge init"


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## kingrollo (5 May 2020)

I would like to know to what extent fitness helps - sure obesity makes it worse - but I haven't seen any stats on runners, cyclists, gym goers etc 
I know some pro footballers told how covid totally knocked them for six..


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## MarkF (5 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yeah you can't tell that to Eddie electrician in his white van though "gud job that Corbyn weren in churge init"


 What does that mean exactly?


----------



## Andy in Germany (5 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> What does that mean exactly?



It means propaganda works.


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## kingrollo (5 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Ah, but we reached the testing target by the day promised (just, with a little bit of creative accounting) so what's the problem?


That we have more positive cases ! Oh the irony !


----------



## marinyork (5 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Be cautious about precise international comparisons based on the national headline numbers, rather than the adjusted estimates which organisations like Euromomo and the WHO might publish in months or years to come. I'm not sure how Italy's counting methods compare to the UK's - maybe @marinyork or someone else knows?



Italy mostly doesn't publish care home deaths, it adds in far fewer than France, UK and particularly Belgium. Health is devolved to the regions with vastly differing policies, why a team was set up to deal with the coronavirus for the whole of the north of Italy and get regions/provinces working together. There was a massive surge in deaths the last week of February in Italy which isn't included in the figures. There's also massive differences in testing and care homes/care depending on regions. Some of the figures for some regions look quite under reported. Some especially so from a testing perspective, although unlike some UK regions there doesn't seem to be the belief the virus isn't present.

We do know that many Italians have died at home or in care homes. Both death and care for the elderly are delicate or taboo topics in Italy, so don't expect any deep study that makes the news. There is outrage about deaths in particular care homes in Italy which is sadly probably a distraction from deaths in care homes as a whole.


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## Ming the Merciless (5 May 2020)

How the Corona App could work and still protect privacy. This is what Google and Apple have adopted and improved and were proposing and are making changes to allow.

https://ncase.me/contact-tracing/


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## nickyboy (5 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Italy mostly doesn't publish care home deaths, it adds in far fewer than France, UK and particularly Belgium. Health is devolved to the regions with vastly differing policies, why a team was set up to deal with the coronavirus for the whole of the north of Italy and get regions/provinces working together. There was a massive surge in deaths the last week of February in Italy which isn't included in the figures. There's also massive differences in testing and care homes/care depending on regions. Some of the figures for some regions look quite under reported. Some especially so from a testing perspective, although unlike some UK regions there doesn't seem to be the belief the virus isn't present.
> 
> We do know that many Italians have died at home or in care homes. Both death and care for the elderly are delicate or taboo topics in Italy, so don't expect any deep study that makes the news. There is outrage about deaths in particular care homes in Italy which is sadly probably a distraction from deaths in care homes as a whole.


Italy is slower at publicising total death numbers by day for the country that the UK is. However, initial analysis is showing that total excess mortality in Italy is far higher as a % of reported Coronavirus deaths than UK
The analysis seems to show approximate 100% uplift in Italian excess deaths compared to the reported Coronavirus deaths (suggesting the real number is close to 60k). UK's uplift is about 30% (suggesting the real number is about 40k)


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## Unkraut (5 May 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> I'm not sure how the 'track and trace' thing is being done here, or of they use an app. Perhaps @Unkraut can advise, being more technologically savvy than I?


Well I'm not particularly tech savvy, but I understand that SAP, the company who did the app that helped get German tourists abroad (for example in New Zealand ) back home have been contracted to develop a suitable app. With that level of expertise it ought not to take long. In the discussions I have watched there has been some strong criticism that there has been plenty of talk about the app and how essential it is, yet weeks have passed by and it's still not here. This is an area that does seem to have been loused up here.

Part of the problem has been agreeing to suitable protections for privacy. There is EU legislation on this, although I assume this no longer applies in the UK which might be part of the problem there with arguing about who has access to the data collected. I think the data is not going to be centrally stored here.

Notwithstanding the privacy angle (for which I have a lot of sympathy) if you want to get back to normal more quickly this will involve a trade off with having to have the app widely in use to enable the medical authorities to be able to keep down any new threat of the virus spreading again versus some loss of privacy.


----------



## derrick (5 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yeah you can't tell that to Eddie electrician in his white van though "gud job that Corbyn weren in churge init"


Corbyn would still be sitting on the fence.


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## marinyork (5 May 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Italy is slower at publicising total death numbers by day for the country that the UK is. However, initial analysis is showing that total excess mortality in Italy is far higher as a % of reported Coronavirus deaths than UK
> The analysis seems to show approximate 100% uplift in Italian excess deaths compared to the reported Coronavirus deaths (suggesting the real number is close to 60k). UK's uplift is about 30% (suggesting the real number is about 40k)



That was said about three weeks ago. Some think the uplift is even higher than 100% in Italy, because figures in some regions 'look wrong'. There's concern that the figures for ER are underreported which is quite interesting as we do know there have been a lot of very nasty small outbreaks and it's a region where on paper it should spread very easily, Toscana some think is underreported as well and certain bits of the south. The figures for piemonte, valle d'aosta and some other areas are speculated to be more accurate.


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## midlife (5 May 2020)

Just for interest our hospital is suspending its redeployment hub. Could start again at a moments notice though. 

The NHS here started shutting down routine care about 18th March (before the lockdown) so I volunteered for redeployment expecting be sent to the wards.

Not needed at the moment as the wider NHS is starting to plan for the "new normal" including my service.


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## kingrollo (5 May 2020)

midlife said:


> Just for interest our hospital is suspending its redeployment hub. Could start again at a moments notice though.
> 
> The NHS here started shutting down routine care about 18th March (before the lockdown) so I volunteered for redeployment expecting be sent to the wards.
> 
> Not needed at the moment as the wider NHS is starting to plan for the "new normal" including my service.


Yep - my trust is making similar noises. As someone who trains staff in a classroom environment - and currently WFH developing e-learning ! my employment status looks a bit ropey in the new normal !!!


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## Rusty Nails (5 May 2020)

Neil Ferguson has resigned over breaking the lockdown guidance.

What a bloody idiot. Rules are for the little people.


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## kingrollo (5 May 2020)

Why has mental health and the app not been mentioned. 
Having this app on my phone just waiting to buzz with a message telling me I have been near to someone who has tested positive for Covid - isn't going to exactly help my anxiety levels !


----------



## kingrollo (5 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Neil Ferguson has resigned over breaking the lockdown guidance.
> 
> What a bloody idiot. Rules are for the little people.


To be fair it sounds like he was having a bit of totty round his flat - fair play to him !


----------



## mjr (5 May 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Well I'm not particularly tech savvy, but I understand that SAP, the company who did the app that helped get German tourists abroad (for example in New Zealand ) back home have been contracted to develop a suitable app. With that level of expertise it ought not to take long. [...]


You've got SAP? Cool. The UK app is being developed by VMware, according to the BBC. Not a company whose other products inspire confidence in me.

About privacy: if the decentralised model is used, which I think is what ncase, D3PT and must of them are using, then there's not much privacy lost because basically the infection-reporter's ID number(s) get published and other users' apps then decide what action to take based on whether they saw that ID and for how long and how close and so on - unlike the UK design where the central nanny server tracks everyone and decides who to alert.


----------



## marinyork (5 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yep - my trust is making similar noises. As someone who trains staff in a classroom environment - and currently WFH developing e-learning ! my employment status looks a bit ropey in the new normal !!!



If you are good at this stuff, which I expect you are, I would not worry so much about your employment being ropey. There's a lot of people that don't know how to use this stuff at the moment and a lot of demand.


----------



## mjr (5 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Neil Ferguson has resigned over breaking the lockdown guidance.
> 
> What a bloody idiot. Rules are for the little people.


So he's a little person and Boris isn't. Got it.


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## Rusty Nails (5 May 2020)

mjr said:


> So he's a little person and Boris isn't. Got it.



Not what I meant at all.

He's an important person in advising the government and should know the rules apply to him as well.

Of course if Boris wants a girlfriend to visit his home he should resign as well. Has he?


----------



## marinyork (5 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Why has mental health and the app not been mentioned.
> Having this app on my phone just waiting to buzz with a message telling me I have been near to someone who has tested positive for Covid - isn't going to exactly help my anxiety levels !



Lack of thought. If NHS trusts fundamentally don't understand that unpredictable telephone support from unfamiliar people might be quite problematic for a large chunk of people with mental health problems then such lesser used technologies like contact tracing apps aren't even going to be in their thoughts.


----------



## midlife (5 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yep - my trust is making similar noises. As someone who trains staff in a classroom environment - and currently WFH developing e-learning ! my employment status looks a bit ropey in the new normal !!!



As far as I am aware the NHS has no plans to change contracts of employment at the moment. Clinics will run slower and Trusts are looking at running 3 sessions and not 2 on a normal clinical day which will likely mean rewriting contracts for some staff.


----------



## mjr (5 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Of course if Boris wants a girlfriend to visit his home he should resign as well. Has he?


No, Boris has not resigned even though he went to his second home in Buckinghamshire and his pregnant girlfriend joined him there, all completely against guidelines. I thought you defended him at the time, but I apologise if not.


----------



## midlife (5 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Why has mental health and the app not been mentioned.
> Having this app on my phone just waiting to buzz with a message telling me I have been near to someone who has tested positive for Covid - isn't going to exactly help my anxiety levels !



As far as I am aware the services opening up first are cancer, heart disease and mental health.


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## tom73 (5 May 2020)

Even if we all download and use the app it look's like it still won't work. 

For the app to work it has to be able to send an ID via buletooth to other devices close by. Even when in the background and not in active use. 
Apple IOS wont allow apps to do that google will but not for long. Google will allow you to have it running in the foreground ie an icon on your screen all the time but your battery wont lost long. Apple IOS Unless you you keep the phone unlocked , and screen on all day every day without ever doing anything else on your phone. It won't run in the foreground so is useless. 

Apple and google have made it clear they wont allow any tracing app to send IDs in the background. 
NHSX say they have thought about it and have a work round. 
But the only one that works is your phone has to be near enough to enough phones who have the app running in the foreground all the time. 
One on one want work so just how you get critical mass with social distancing is not clear. 

As for the data more has become clear. 
The random ID the app users is not made by your phone but my the server and downloaded to your phone. So it's easy to work out who's who. If you tell the app you may have covid the app downloads to the server 28 days of information. It's outside GDPR rules you can't ask for it be deleted it's no longer belongs to you in fact NCSC has admitted it won't ever be and may well be used at a later date for "research"


----------



## Wobblers (5 May 2020)

Slick said:


> My attitude is maybe because an old school mate lost his life over the weekend so I'm not overly concerned if 007 is going to find out who I play golf with on a Saturday morning.



I'll not go into the extremely concerning issues over privacy, and how the really rather invasive data that this app will collect will be stored permanently, and for purposes that we're not being told about.

There is another very important issue here: the app won't work. There is a good deal of data indicating that as much as half those infected never develop symptoms - but can still be infectious. This app depends on self reporting - all these people will be missed. Furthermore, most of those infected will have a mild illness, so mild that they don't realise that they've caught CV19. These infectious people will also be missed. Indeed, evidence from China, California and Germany is indicating that 90% of cases are missed by the health authorities. This app will miss almost all CV19 cases. This is worse than useless, because this will instill a false sense of security. People will think that they're safe, because this app is telling that when in fact it's missing most infected people.

An app is no substitute for contact tracing, testing and quarantine for those who are infected. Yet that's exactly what this is being touted as! A contact tracing app of this nature would be of considerable use - if it were backed up by rigorous testing of those who exhibit symptoms, and then rigorous testing of those who've been in close contact (to pick up and quarantine the presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases). But even that does not replace the sheer hard work of conventional contact tracing, only helps it. Unfortunately, we're not doing that. We don't have the testing infrastructure. We don't have the contact tracing infrastructure. We're depending on this app (and on those who're alerted to do the right thing). That will fail, simply because it will inevitably miss most cases.


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## DaveReading (5 May 2020)

McWobble said:


> There is a good deal of data indicating that as much as half those infected never develop symptoms - but can still be infectious.



Equally, there is data that only 1 in 5 of individuals infected are symptomless, which changes the picture considerably.

I have no idea which figure is correct. Do you ?


----------



## lane (6 May 2020)

What precisely are the privacy issues with the app and what should I be concerned about exactly. What in practical terms will the government know about me that they don't already or can find out if they are that interested? I know privacy is good and all but in reality makes no difference to me.


----------



## Wobblers (6 May 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Equally, there is data that only 1 in 5 of individuals infected are symptomless, which changes the picture considerably.
> 
> I have no idea which figure is correct. Do you ?



My source is the WHO report into the Wuhan outbreak. Yours?


----------



## Edwardoka (6 May 2020)

lane said:


> What precisely are the privacy issues with the app and what should I be concerned about exactly. What in practical terms will the government know about me that they don't already or can find out if they are that interested? I know privacy is good and all but in reality makes no difference to me.


Your location at all times, who you fraternise with (again, at all times).

And it's not just the government that knows, it's the provider who the government gives the contract to. And any staff who work for that contractor, malicious or otherwise.

If that contractor or the database is attacked and successfully breached, the location history of everyone who has installed the app and who they spend time with will be on the web for all to see.

I have some trust with some companies who have a track record of doing excellent opsec and infosec. That trust can vanish in an instant and can never be recovered.

Do I trust this government or whichever cheap ass company wins the contract to provide development, maintenance and support of this app? 
No, I wouldn't trust them to install a wordpress plugin, at the best of times.

When Classic Dom is pulling the levers? fark no, I'd sooner stick my face in a meat grinder.


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## lane (6 May 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Your location at all times, who you fraternise with (again, at all times).
> 
> And it's not just the government that knows, it's the provider who the government gives the contract to. And any staff who work for that contractor, malicious or otherwise.
> 
> ...



Thought so. "They" know where I am and who I am with big deal. It's not like I am a spy. Honestly it wouldn't be hard to find out the places I am likely to be and who with if you really wanted to. I am at home, at work, on my bike, with my family, with people at work, with the cycling club. Maybe I don't have an exciting enough life nothing to hide, nothing to see here.


----------



## marinyork (6 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Neil Ferguson has resigned over breaking the lockdown guidance.
> 
> What a bloody idiot. Rules are for the little people.



He can inform the government and behaviour used to guide SPI-B . Notably he was motivated from being antibody positive.


----------



## Edwardoka (6 May 2020)

lane said:


> Thought so. "They" know where I am and who I am with big deal. It's not like I am a spy. Honestly it wouldn't be hard to find out the places I am likely to be and who with if you really wanted to. I am at home, at work, on my bike, with my family, with people at work, with the cycling club. Maybe I don't have an exciting enough life nothing to hide, nothing to see here.


Are you truly so bereft of imagination that the thought of literally any random person gaining unauthorised access to a system that allows them to see all movements of you and your family doesn't bring you even a smidgeon of alarm?

All of your movements and those of your family and friends being available on the dark web to all and sundry doesn't fire a single synapse?

It is trivially easy to imagine scenarios where bad actors getting their hands on this information could easily ruin lives, whether through the obvious ones like using it to burgle an empty house, abusive ex's stalking, people in toxic relationships using the information to exert control or the more improbable cases like blackmail, kidnapping, creepy weirdos etc.

Let me ask you a question: do you lock your doors at night or when you're out?
After all, if you have nothing to hide why would you?

While writing this post I got a feeling that this is an extension of the misplaced exceptionalism that has led to the UK surging ahead in covid deaths. "Well, I understand that others are concerned but I'll be fine, it can't happen to _me. _I have nothing to hide and I don't have covid and neither does anyone I know. What are the odds I'll get sick just from going to see my relatives?"


----------



## newfhouse (6 May 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Your location at all times


Is this true? My understanding is that your exact location is not part of the dataset stored or transmitted. Of course that could be a lie, but there are enough concerns without inventing new ones.

Unless you have deliberately turned off location services, Google or Apple will have far more accurate and uncontrolled data waiting to be monetised. Your phone network keeps a record of your approximate location, by cell site and sector, even if you use a non smart phone.

FWIW my concerns are less about data privacy and more that this app lets the government off the hook. If you don’t use it you can be blamed and shamed, despite the lack of evidence that it will reduce infection. It’s a huge diversion.


----------



## Julia9054 (6 May 2020)

https://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(20)30551-0/fulltext
This study suggests that allergic asthma may be associated with reduced expression of ACE2 receptors (that covid 19 uses to gain entry to cells) and thus may be a factor in reduced severity of the disease. 
My take away message from this study is that I should get a cat.


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## Rusty Nails (6 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> He can inform the government and behaviour used to guide SPI-B . Notably he was motivated from being antibody positive.



_"I acted in the belief that I was immune, having tested positive for coronavirus and completely isolated myself for almost two weeks after developing symptoms.

"I deeply regret any undermining of the clear messages around the continued need for social distancing."

He also called the government advice on social distancing "unequivocal", adding that it was there "to protect all of us"._

in other words "I was an idiot and therefore resign".

At least he has an understanding of why he should resign, unlike Robert Jenrick.


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## Andy in Germany (6 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> https://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(20)30551-0/fulltext
> This study suggests that allergic asthma may be associated with reduced expression of ACE2 receptors (that covid 19 uses to gain entry to cells) and thus may be a factor in reduced severity of the disease.
> My take away message from this study is that I should get a cat.



That would be comforting if it turns out to be the case...


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## tom73 (6 May 2020)

Not quite true for location information to leave my iPhone I have to deliberately turn it on. IOS has location off by default.
Even then allow each app to use it which are all listed and have to ask and alert you when they are using it.
Once your data is stolen maybe it make's you see things different. I protect my data as much as I can and everything
I can control is turned up to the max.
I'm one of the many 1000's who had my equifax data stolen as they had failed to protect it.
So now have to constantly watch my credit file and get sent alerts if anything happens.
Also I've to go though an extra step to approve any credit. Which not all companies let you do so can and has limited my credit.
I've had a few attempts at cloning my cards , a few go's to get into my bank account and an at least one large loan taken out in my name all via the info on my credit file. All this from data that is covered by law and is regulated handing over data on mass which is is outside the law and unregulated is a whole new ball game.


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## randynewmanscat (6 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> https://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(20)30551-0/fulltext
> This study suggests that allergic asthma may be associated with reduced expression of ACE2 receptors (that covid 19 uses to gain entry to cells) and thus may be a factor in reduced severity of the disease.
> My take away message from this study is that I should get a cat.


Get two, twice the protection and you can watch them play together.


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## tom73 (6 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> https://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(20)30551-0/fulltext
> This study suggests that allergic asthma may be associated with reduced expression of ACE2 receptors (that covid 19 uses to gain entry to cells) and thus may be a factor in reduced severity of the disease.
> My take away message from this study is that I should get a cat.



Better tell NHSX then the app appears not have " I have a cat" option. When working out your exposure risk.


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## DaveReading (6 May 2020)

McWobble said:


> My source is the WHO report into the Wuhan outbreak. Yours?



I was quoting the BBC, but I don't know their source.

That said, I've also read a number or reports like the WHO's that put the percentage of symptomless infections much higher.

I suppose one reason for the difference could be how you define a symptom, for example whether you include something like loss of sense of smell, which is reportedly very common, or just count the classic fever/headache/breathing symptoms.


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## marinyork (6 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> _"I acted in the belief that I was immune, having tested positive for coronavirus and completely isolated myself for almost two weeks after developing symptoms.
> 
> "I deeply regret any undermining of the clear messages around the continued need for social distancing."
> 
> ...



I was joking. 

This was what SAGE said (although we're not talking about antibody tests)



> 1. Those testing Antibody Positive (a) Failure to recognise and respond to symptoms of COVID-19 If those testing “Antibody Positive” believe they have no chance of becoming infected with COVID19 in the future, they may fail to attribute future symptoms of cough or fever to COVID-19. This would prevent them from self-isolating when ill and increase the chance of them transmitting infection. This may occur in all population groups, but would have more severe consequences for frontline health and social care workers, where failure to self-isolate may result in staff members infecting vulnerable patients and co-workers. Although in theory, staff should not attend work with fever even outside of a pandemic, in practice presenteeism can be high, particularly among healthcare workers [Webster et al 2019]
> 
> (b) Reduced adherence to transmission-reducing behaviours Hand hygiene and other measures to reduce fomite transmission will remain important regardless of antibody status. Failure to take appropriate precautions could lead to transmission of the virus between people. There is some evidence from previous public health crises that misunderstanding test results can affect adherence to risk-reducing behaviours. During the 2001 US anthrax attacks, some postal workers given a negative nasal swab result for anthrax incorrectly believed that this meant they had not been exposed to anthrax. Some then cited this as a reason for not adhering to their course of prophylactic antibiotics [Stein et al 2004; Williams et al 2001]. Lower adherence to risk-reducing behaviours such as hand hygiene may occur in all population groups, but is likely to be less problematic for frontline health and social care workers for whom hand hygiene is well established routine clinical practice.
> 
> (c) Seeking increased exposure to COVID-19 at work Some testing “Antibody Positive” may actively volunteer to take on activities at work with high exposure to COVID-19. This might include customer-facing roles or tasks within health or social care that involve greater contact with COVID-19 patients. This would be particularly problematic if the test result was incorrect. Conversely, volunteering to take on higher risk duties may be a valid position given a good understanding of the uncertainties inherent in the test result. As testing is rolled out and teams start to become aware of who has and has not received an “Antibody Positive” test result, there will be a need for employers to develop a fair policy to balance the tensions that may be at play. While this risk is present for all organisations involving higher and lower risk activities, the issue is likely to prove particularly challenging for frontline health and social care staff.



Seems it could beef up that section of the report as those antibody positive inviting people around from other households seems missing .


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## tom73 (6 May 2020)

Remind me just what is this app all about again ? Something about tracking and tracing a virus ? 
Well we may have a problem ...
It ask’s HCP's to tell it when they are wearing PPE. So not to include those interactions when working out your risk. 
Which is possibly the most at risk interactions they will have. It's a bit of an insult to assume well you have PPE so you're safe. 
If you catch it you never got it at work as the app say's so. 
Not a HCP so it's fine .... well no 
As it won't recored the HCP's interaction it won't recored the interaction you have with the HCP either. 
It may as well have a option saying I can't catch it as I do my shopping wearing my "magic gloves"


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Remind me just what is this app all about again ? Something about tracking and tracing a virus ?
> Well we may have a problem ...
> It ask’s HCP's to tell it when they are wearing PPE. So not to include those interactions when working out your risk.
> Which is possibly the most at risk interactions they will have. It's a bit of an insult to assume well you have PPE so you're safe.
> ...


What’s your solution to minimising virus spread and coming out of lockdown? Genuinely interested in how this may happen given where we are at now in the UK (and not based on what’s happening in other countries or what might have happened or should have happened, can’t change the past). You clearly have a strong opinion On what should now be done or not done


----------



## Rocky (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> What’s your solution to minimising virus spread and coming out of lockdown? Genuinely interested in how this may happen given where we are at now in the UK (and not based on what’s happening in other countries or what might have happened or should have happened, can’t change the past). You clearly have a strong opinion On what should now be done or not done


FWIW, I can give you my opinion. Don’t waste time on flawed technology. Using a big data solution when there’s very little data, won’t work. Make sure in the places of major transmission (hospitals, care homes, offices, shops and public transport) people wear PPE.

My son, who works at a major teaching hospital in London is still short of the right PPE. Sorting that would be a start. Far far better procurement is needed right now.


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## mjr (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> how this may happen given where we are at now in the UK (and not based on what’s happening in other countries [...]


Fair enough in ruling out what should have happened, but why are you saying that we shouldn't learn from what happens in other countries already unlocking? Hasn't ignoring the experiences of countries who've suffered ahead of us already cost enough thousands of UK residents' lives?


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## marinyork (6 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Remind me just what is this app all about again ? Something about tracking and tracing a virus ?
> Well we may have a problem ...



The health care worker will still be a node. It'll then be directed along from a 'new source' of transmission (if it was caught in the hospital which is sadly the most likely) to others. You don't necessarily want loads of cyclic graphs coming and going from the hospital environment, it'll make it harder to analyse. It seems much more problematic from the care home perspective - if care home workers were excluded when in PPE that seems frigging daft. That probably would be useful not to exclude care workers when in PPE as it tells you lots of data you don't know already (we sadly do know that there a high proportion of infections are those that work with covid-19 patients in hospitals and roughly where they are likely to happen).

It's more the other way around, saying that someone else can't get it from them whilst they are wearing PPE. So there's a way of distinguishing between say on public transport in a packed tube commute with no PPE on and at a different time where they are a patient in a hospital.


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Fair enough in ruling out what should have happened, but why are you saying that we shouldn't learn from what happens in other countries already unlocking? Hasn't ignoring the experiences of countries who've suffered ahead of us already cost enough thousands of UK residents' lives?


I'm not saying we shouldn't learn but I don't think that the constant comparison is helpful, the situation, system, demographic etc isn't the same, we should look to adapt where appropriate, not just assume that what works in one country will work here. Look forwards not back. Unfortunately, it appears easier to criticise than offer up (workable) solutions

If China had shut its borders, if Korea had, if Italy had, if Spain had, if France had, if we had (although of course there were lots of people who live in the UK stuck abroad)....we know all that with the benefit of hindsight. Maybe the lockdown here should be more absolute as in China, Spain, France (no going out for exercise for example)


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> FWIW, I can give you my opinion. Don’t waste time on flawed technology. Using a big data solution when there’s very little data, won’t work. Make sure in the places of major transmission (hospitals, care homes, offices, shops and public transport) people wear PPE.
> 
> My son, who works at a major teaching hospital in London is still short of the right PPE. Sorting that would be a start. F*ar far better procurement is needed right now.*


And how should that happen, what can be done to fix, if there is indeed a global shortage as is presumably the case. All countries seem to be having issues with getting PPE (France, USA, Italy, Spain?)


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> FWIW, I can give you my opinion. Don’t waste time on flawed technology. Using a big data solution when there’s very little data, won’t work. Make sure in the places of major transmission (hospitals, care homes, offices, shops and public transport) people wear PPE.
> 
> My son, who works at a major teaching hospital in London is still short of the right PPE. Sorting that would be a start. Far far better procurement is needed right now.


And keep everyone in lockdown and keep the borders closed until the world has had no new cases for what 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, 12 months? Everyone who has had it has either recovered or died?


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## MarkF (6 May 2020)

From my experience you could provide all the PPE required, but without professional (non-NHS) assistance for delivery, storage and in-hospital distribution, too much will be wasted or unused and too many man hours spent searching for things that are available. 

Staff morale is still high, sickness levels still low, from a lot of moaning about trying & failing to get tested, it now seems hardly anybody can be bothered as it was such a palaver not to get tested. That might change when a rumoured much nearer testing facility materialises, maybe to replace the the one that appeared, was used for less than a week, then vanished..............the main topic now is "How haven't we been infected"? It's incredible considering there is no social distancing and the crappy PPE, but I only know of one staff member (a sister) who was confirmed positive and had a tough time by all accounts, our colleague who went sick last week is now back, negative.


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## MarkF (6 May 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> It means propaganda works.


 Certainly does for KingRollo.


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## Rocky (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> And keep everyone in lockdown and keep the borders closed until the world has had no new cases for what 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, 12 months? Everyone who has had it has either recovered or died?


If the technology doesn't work, then it isn't going to have the desired effect. This is why I quote the British Computer Society's line: you can't use a big data solution when there is no data. So let's start concentrating on what will work (for example face coverings and changes to public transport) than obsessing about a flawed IT approach.


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## Rocky (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> And how should that happen, what can be done to fix, if there is indeed a global shortage as is presumably the case. All countries seem to be having issues with getting PPE (France, USA, Italy, Spain?)


I can answer that one - the NHS has one central procurement portal (a close relation has been drafted in to help sort this out). At the moment it is receiving offers from individuals wishing to donate three pairs of gloves right the way through major clothing manufacturers wishing to help. The NHS has no current way of triaging these. So everyone, offering supplies, is stuck in the same log jam. It is chaotic. Perhaps sorting the portal would be a good way forward.


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> If the technology doesn't work, then it isn't going to have the desired effect. This is why I quote the British Computer Society's line: you can't use a big data solution when there is no data. So let's start concentrating on what will work (for example face coverings and changes to public transport) than obsessing about a flawed IT approach.


Presumably that is going on in parallel? It would be helpful to have a consistent opinion on face coverings for starters, are they helpful or not in non-clinical settings? There's no consensus, certainly arguments against have appeared in this and other threads on this forum. Let alone amongst the scientific and medical experts


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## PK99 (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> If China had shut its borders, if Korea had, if Italy had, if Spain had, if France had, if we had (*although of course there were lots of people who live in the UK stuck abroad)...*



The foreign office team were initially. dealing with 300,000 Brits abroad trying to get home.


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## Rocky (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Presumably that is going on in parallel? It would be helpful to have a consistent opinion on face coverings for starters, are they helpful or not in non-clinical settings? There's no consensus, certainly arguments against have appeared in this and other threads on this forum. Let alone amongst the scientific and medical experts


The face mask debate is an interesting one - there's plenty of evidence to suggest that they work in reducing the spread in public settings (my wife has published a review on this in the BMJ). The people contesting it are saying that there are no randomised controlled trials on mask wearing, which they would see as the gold standard.

The problem is that government makes policy using other types of evidence - it cannot wait for an RCT before acting. So we have advice/guidance on lockdown, sneezing into our elbows and not touching our face - all of which have no RCTs to support them. They are supported by natural experiments, epidemiological modelling and lab science - as is face mask wearing. They are also supported by common sense.

I agree 100% with the government on lockdown, social distancing and public health guidance. They are the right thing to do. I just don't understand why people want a different level of evidence for mask wearing.

I also agree with the concept of testing, tracing and tracking. I just wish it were working. There are real issues about (i) the effectiveness of the testing process (which I've experienced first hand) and (ii) the flaws in the data gathering process from the app (some of which others have mentioned).

We will emerge slowly out of lockdown. I suspect we'll experience a second wave of infections. I'm not sure the tracking app, in its current form will help, but getting PPE to the right places is going to be important. BTW, I'm not able to comment on whether the country has enough PPE - I simply don't know that but I do know there are places in the health service where HCPs are going without. Perhaps it is in the wrong place.


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

What are Italy, France and Spain doing about test, track and trace (for wont of a better name) and they relax their lockdowns...if anything?


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> The foreign office team were initially. dealing with 300,000 Brits abroad trying to get home.


Indeed, a massive issue, from all 4 corners of the globe as it were - not exactly practical to shut the borders to people trying to get home. This included a friend of mine (a Consultant anaesthetist who specialises in respiratory disease/ pre-hospital medicine [air ambulance]) - was attending a conference in Columbia had a very tough time getting home after all the flights ceased!


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## kingrollo (6 May 2020)

midlife said:


> As far as I am aware the NHS has no plans to change contracts of employment at the moment. Clinics will run slower and Trusts are looking at running 3 sessions and not 2 on a normal clinical day which will likely mean rewriting contracts for some staff.


????

Doesn't your second paragraph contradict your first.

Foundation trusts draw up Job description s - so each trust can do as it pleases 

Also foundation trusts don't make you redundant - you are re deployed - usually you aren't re deployed into good jobs - it's the shite no one else wants - in our trust that is IT projects - as most people there just leave or go off with stress.


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## kingrollo (6 May 2020)

midlife said:


> As far as I am aware the services opening up first are cancer, heart disease and mental health.


I was talking about the app - not NHS services.


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## Joey Shabadoo (6 May 2020)

IIRC, the Italian health services were overwhelmed at one point, unable to even treat some people. Unless I've missed something, this never happened in the UK. We also built huge emergency facilities in exhibition centres which were barely used, if at all. We seem to concentrate on what went wrong but it seems to me our NHS performed incredibly and never came close to breakdown. 

Touch wood.


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## marinyork (6 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> If the technology doesn't work, then it isn't going to have the desired effect. This is why I quote the British Computer Society's line: you can't use a big data solution when there is no data. So let's start concentrating on what will work (for example face coverings and changes to public transport) than obsessing about a flawed IT approach.



The BCS report was quite broad and vague. On the big data one I'm not quite sure what they mean and still not. There will be a lot of data in future. I think they probably meant using big data sarcastically and that getting excited about vague projects was a bad idea. There are a choice of words and another alternative is automated or other choices or words. 

The government need to be much clearer as said by the BCS and others about what the benefits are and what their thinking is.

One of the reasons why the government want a semi-centralised system seems to me to be so the contract tracers can offer support, can prioritise any worrying sounding cases so people aren't dropping dead at home that we know has happened or picked up earlier. Another one seems to be that they can sort out delivery of food or other things. Talk of allowing someone to self isolate in a hotel seems a good idea. No idea why they chose serco though. This has been said by the government, but not so much recently. Telephone calls may be good for compliance. They may be good for wellbeing and reassurance.

The government should spell out specifically under which scenarios the app might be useful. So I can think of a few myself, this is not something I've heard anyone from the government (or outside in industry) say.


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## tom73 (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> What’s your solution to minimising virus spread and coming out of lockdown? Genuinely interested in how this may happen given where we are at now in the UK (and not based on what’s happening in other countries or what might have happened or should have happened, can’t change the past). You clearly have a strong opinion On what should now be done or not done



@Brompton Bruce look's to have beaten me to it. 

Strong opinion maybe so I guess being married to someone with a post grad in public health means something rubs off. 

A quick fix as this app is being sold as won't get us out of this and public need to be told that. 
Normal is not coming back for some time and we all need to accept that. 
Before we go down the machine that go's ping route we need to get the basics right which we don't look to have fixed yet. 

Contact tracing at a local level takes place everyday of the week by professionals who understand what data really means and how to use it. 
The sad thing is over many years the mass we once had is not much more than a handful now. 
Airports need a rethink when you arrive you are politely asked to do the right thing if you get sick. 
I'm not asking for some airport worker to be waiting with a inferred thermometer ready and willing. 
That is totally pointless currently the only way you get put into quarantine is if you arrive in the back of a lorry or in a rubber boat. 
Buy a ticket and fly in and you're fine the app won't work outside this country. 

We also need to fix the other ticking time bomb source of community transmission which on-one dare mention. 
Prisons which are still waiting for any real practical solution or help from the government. Which due to an ageing population have wings that now feel like a care home. The app won't help with that either as no-one can even walk though the door with a phone. 
Much talk is about having to redesign shops and officers to allow people to be safe. That's all well and good but it's like plugging a hole only for anther one to appear when no-one is looking. 
Care and nursing homes will need a total redesign as will much of the prison estate. 
Day centres, schools ,HE collage's , out reach services all need a rethink. 
Hospitals ,GP's , clinics will need to find ways to increase the day to day stuff in environments that have Covid all round them that's safe and practical. Much has been done already but much more will be needed once surgery is opened up. 
No app will help with any of that either.

On the PPE front if the media and jo public believe the care home sector has been thrown under the bus. 
It's nothing compared to the Hospice moment who have quietly been forgotten in all this.


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Brompton Bruce look's to have beaten me to it.
> 
> Strong opinion maybe so I guess being married to someone with a post grad in public health means something rubs off.
> 
> ...


Right... that’s all well and good. So what is the solution (and not the problem). How and what not why 
For me that's what's missing from all the discussion - everyone says this is what we should have done, or what has been done badly or wrong, or what we should do, but not how we can do it...


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## tom73 (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Right... that’s all well and good. So what is the solution (and not the problem). How and what not why
> For me that's what's missing from all the discussion - everyone says this is what we should have done, or what has been done badly or wrong, or what we should do, but not how we can do it...



Well the government as has always been the case needs to say we can't do this without help. 
If they don't know what needs to be done then ask plenty others will. 
We need practical solutions to the practical problems empower the ones at the bottom to get on with the job. 
With the right tools at the right time. 
PPE is still one big mess we still don't have a central register of who can provide what , or which companies can be turned over to make stuff. The amount they can make is not the issues someone working in a shed with a 3d printer can easily keep a small care home in a good amount of stuff. Or even the local shop allowing them to do more. 
This is as much about the big picture as the little one. But that wont get the headlines will it 
Maybe what also will help if the government stops counting single gloves as an item of PPE not to mention floor cleaner.


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

Doesn’t PPE have to be approved though for use in a hospital or care setting? Does man in shed also have to follow the approval process?
Different ‘regs’ than for a customer in a supermarket wearing a buff or home made mask


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## Inertia (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Right... that’s all well and good. So what is the solution (and not the problem). How and what not why
> For me that's what's missing from all the discussion - everyone says this is what we should have done, or what has been done badly or wrong, or what we should do, but not how we can do it...


Thats probably because its easier to see whats wrong than to know how to rectify it. I dont think that means we shouldnt point it out.


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> Thats probably because its easier to see whats wrong than to know how to rectify it. I dont think that means we shouldnt point it out.


No, but I posted because I want to know what’s going to happen and how, not what could have/should have happened. Most of this thread has covered the criticism in depth, those commenting haven’t offered much solution though. Maybe there actually isn’t one that’s workable at least at the moment when the disease is so new and not yet understood


----------



## Rocky (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Right... that’s all well and good. So what is the solution (and not the problem). How and what not why
> For me that's what's missing from all the discussion - everyone says this is what we should have done, or what has been done badly or wrong, or what we should do, but not how we can do it...


I've tried to offer some suggestions on the way forward.....in summary:

Face coverings for the public
Get the PPE procurement portal sorted
Get the army or a team of logistics experts to iron out the shortages (and gluts) of PPE across the country
Fix the testing chaos that I experienced at Coventry Ricoh stadium on Saturday (again put the army in charge of this)
Listen to the critics on the contract tracing app.....they might help prevent major problems and another NHS IT failure - work more closely with Google and Apple (it's their platforms this thing is going to have to work on).


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## Inertia (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> No, but I posted because I want to know what’s going to happen and how, not what could have/should have happened. Most of this thread has covered the criticism in depth, those commenting haven’t offered much solution though


They arent running the country and in many cases, probably lack the expertise. I know i do

and some are offering suggestions where they do


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## Rocky (6 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> They arent running the country and in many cases, probably lack the expertise. I know i do
> 
> and some are offering suggestions where they do


I'd offer to run the country but I'm too busy currently with my polyamorous lover and my mathematical models.


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## Inertia (6 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'd offer to run the country but I'm too busy currently with my polyamorous lover and my mathematical models.


Boris seems to manage, without the mathematical models


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## Mike_P (6 May 2020)

Problem with face masks is that unless the user fully understands how fit one correctly, probably they should undergo a fit to face test with someone appropriately certified, they merely lead to a false sense of security and what many seem not to understand they reduce the chance of the wearer not passing a virus on and have no prevention to the wearer


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## tom73 (6 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> Boris seems to manage, without the mathematical models


 I hear bus model making is more his thing.


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## Inertia (6 May 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Problem with face masks is that unless the user fully understands how fit one correctly, probably they should undergo a fit to face test with someone appropriately certified, they merely lead to a false sense of security and what many seem not to understand they reduce the chance of the wearer not passing a virus on and have no prevention to the wearer


I assume you mean the ones you would use in hospital?

The face masks worn in public wouldnt need that kind of fitting.


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## tom73 (6 May 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Problem with face masks is that unless the user fully understands how fit one correctly, probably they should undergo a fit to face test with someone appropriately certified, they merely lead to a false sense of security and what many seem not to understand they reduce the chance of the wearer not passing a virus on and have no prevention to the wearer


Clinical ones in clinical environments yes. But all jo blogs needs out shopping or at work is a fabric covering of some sort. 
So no fit test is needed and even a fit test is no guarantee you wear one correctly anyway.


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## Rocky (6 May 2020)

Mike_P said:


> Problem with face masks is that unless the user fully understands how fit one correctly, probably they should undergo a fit to face test with someone appropriately certified, they merely lead to a false sense of security and what many seem not to understand they reduce the chance of the wearer not passing a virus on and have no prevention to the wearer


That's simply not true.......there is no robust evidence to support that. See this review in the BMJ

If 75% of people wore masks 75% of the time and 75% effectively, then it would have a serious impact on the R0 of the virus. My mask protects you, your mask protects me. It is very different to a PPE mask for doctors (or other HCPs). All we need is a reduction in the transmission of the virus, not 100% protection.


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## tom73 (6 May 2020)

oh goody testing capacity is now set to double boy we are so lucky. If only we had an app too .... oh 
Soon we won't know what to do with all the capacity only yesterday Rabb explained that you will have less tests as less people are getting ill so less people passing on the virus. It only feels like yesterday we got told we had extra capacity as less NHS staff went for one then they 1st thought.


----------



## Mike_P (6 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> That's simply not true.......there is no robust evidence to support that. See this review in the BMJ


 It's the advise the HSE is giving or at least thats what my workplace is saying.


----------



## matticus (6 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> ...
> See this review in the BMJ



How things change! Only a month ago, whenever masks were mentioned, internet experts would instantly quote the studies showing how useless they are. (the same studies referenced in that BMJ review.)


----------



## vickster (6 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> oh goody testing capacity is now set to double boy we are so lucky. If only we had an app too .... oh
> Soon we won't know what to do with all the capacity only yesterday Rabb explained that you will have less tests as less people are getting ill so less people passing on the virus. It only feels like yesterday we got told we had extra capacity as less NHS staff went for one then they 1st thought.


What would actually meet your expectations? Tests available, people have to actually go to get them if they have the symptoms, don’t think current tests pick up a non existent virus or one that has cleared?) Does desktop testing now exist that could safely be put in every GP surgery? What’s the point in testing everyone? Would you have to do it every day in case someone wasn't symptomatic but possibly incubating yesterday?

A whole infrastructure has had to be created (we can’t change the past, or become Roche’s (or others) biggest market overnight (Germany has been a Primary market for Roche for many years, after all Basel literally straddles the border)


----------



## tom73 (6 May 2020)

Is that the same HSE that so we are told has signed off the PHE guidelines that say it's fine to reuse single item PPE ?


----------



## Rocky (6 May 2020)

Mike_P said:


> It's the advise the HSE is giving or at least thats what my workplace is saying.


My wife has spent the last two months doing extensive searches of the literature and publishing on this (she's an Oxford academic). She's been providing advice to the WHO, NHSE, PHE, Labour Party and the Scottish government. She's now done more than 15 TV and radio interviews. There is no reliable evidence against face coverings for the public and plenty in its favour. For some reason a number of official bodies are slow in keeping up with the latest research. 

The conclusion is that face coverings are not harmful, are not complicated to wear, can be freely available and offer a way out of lockdown. It seems to me that the HSE, if it's giving advice on reducing the Ro of Covid, needs to get up to date.


----------



## Rocky (6 May 2020)

matticus said:


> How things change! Only a month ago, whenever masks were mentioned, internet experts would instantly quote the studies showing how useless they are. (the same studies referenced in that BMJ review.)


I'm not an internet expert. However, my wife is a professor of general practice who has spent the last 6 weeks developing guidelines for Covid care, publishing papers and advising a range of governmental and professional bodies. So she is an expert. I am aware of her work and I know what it says. If you disagree with her claims (and I've referenced them earlier), I'd be happy to look at your evidence and debate its validity with you.


----------



## tom73 (6 May 2020)

@Brompton Bruce


----------



## Rocky (6 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Brompton Bruce


To tell you the truth, I'm bleedin' fed up with all the talk of masks and PPE in this household. It's been enough to make me want to take a polyamorous lover or develop a mathematical model


----------



## matticus (6 May 2020)

@Brompton Bruce
I don't know your wife, and I don't know what you've said in the past about masks! That BMJ article seems reasonable to me. I was trying to make the point that a LOT of people have been rubbishing mask-wearing almost through-out the pandemic, usually referencing the older studies.

I find the very recent shift in public opinion interesting, it really feels like a tipping point, not the gradual shift over years that humanity usually exhibits. _Hopefully _it is a move in the right direction


----------



## Rocky (6 May 2020)

matticus said:


> @Brompton Bruce
> _Hopefully _it is a move in the right direction


Fingers crossed!!


----------



## tom73 (6 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> To tell you the truth, I'm bleedin' fed up with all the talk of masks and PPE in this household. It's been enough to make me want to take a polyamorous lover or develop a mathematical model



It's the pearls of being married to a HCP talks either about some new idea/paper or I had this lovely weeping wound to sort out today. 
You will know just what I mean


----------



## Inertia (6 May 2020)

matticus said:


> @Brompton Bruce
> I don't know your wife, and I don't know what you've said in the past about masks! That BMJ article seems reasonable to me. I was trying to make the point that a LOT of people have been rubbishing mask-wearing almost through-out the pandemic, usually referencing the older studies.
> 
> I find the very recent shift in public opinion interesting, it really feels like a tipping point, not the gradual shift over years that humanity usually exhibits. _Hopefully _it is a move in the right direction


I do know what you mean although I dont think peple rubbished them exactly. I think a lot of it was in answer to people thinking either that masks gave them 100% protection, or didnt realise how they worked.


----------



## All uphill (6 May 2020)

lane said:


> Thought so. "They" know where I am and who I am with big deal. It's not like I am a spy. Honestly it wouldn't be hard to find out the places I am likely to be and who with if you really wanted to. I am at home, at work, on my bike, with my family, with people at work, with the cycling club. Maybe I don't have an exciting enough life nothing to hide, nothing to see here.


Here's a "for example". There are many more scenarios that could happen.

One of my family lives in an inner city flat. His bed is next to an internal wall. He leaves his phone by his bed overnight.

The other side of the wall is an Airbnb apartment.

What if some people with terrorist links stay in the Airbnb, and their phones talk to my family member's phone He has been in close proximity for hours. He is now on a watch list of the security services.

How will that affect a Visa request for the USA?


----------



## Low Gear Guy (6 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Is that the same HSE that so we are told has signed off the PHE guidelines that say it's fine to reuse single item PPE ?


Was that before or after the phone call from the man from the ministry?


----------



## tom73 (6 May 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Was that before or after the phone call from the man from the ministry?


I think it may have been in between Hancock being told we don't have enough PPE and Hancock publicly blaming HCP's for misusing it.


----------



## marinyork (6 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> I do know what you mean although I dont think peple rubbished them exactly. I think a lot of it was in answer to people thinking either that masks gave them 100% protection, or didnt realise how they worked.



If the government decide to recommend them the public aren't daft. The government need to say that if everyone wears a face covering or mask in situations x, y and z that their models say that it reduces R(t) by 0.2 which helps keep it under 1 along with physical distancing. Adverts. Posters. Keep reinforcing it. Pictures. As detailed as possible. Explain when R is lower, smaller gains to reduce R are important in this phase.

We need to get rid the sort of daft stuff where it is thought the public don't understand graphs, exponential curves or anything more than 1950s advice. Most of the sage advice that's finally been published a school child would understand.

On that exact topic I think face coverings, masks and respirators are becoming less common in shops and outside.


----------



## tom73 (6 May 2020)

Unless it's Easing restrictions on activity and social distancing: comments and suggestions from SPI-B. 
That is it must be so hard to understand they've redacted it so not confuse us.


----------



## icowden (6 May 2020)

All uphill said:


> Here's a "for example". There are many more scenarios that could happen.
> 
> One of my family lives in an inner city flat. His bed is next to an internal wall. He leaves his phone by his bed overnight.
> 
> ...



It won't. 

You are suggesting that every person that the "person with terrorist links" has passed that has the app, is now on a watch list. Everyone at the airport, on the train, who was in the cafe or the newsagent, or that the person walked past on the street is now on the watch list. The security services will have to do some recruiting to cope with the volumes involved. Even if the data were analysed and your relatives phone came up as being in proximity and the security services decided that was interesting enough to look at, unless that person is a "wrong-un" they will quickly exclude that data. 

Secondly the app is using Bluetooth. Almost all mobiles are Class 2 which means Bluetooth has a range of about 10m and range tends to be impaired by things like walls.


----------



## PK99 (6 May 2020)

Beebo said:


> UK now has the highest death toll in Europe.
> 
> How did we manage to cock it up more than Italy and Spain?



This was touched on in today's briefing.

I think the way to look at it is that the various counties measure and report different things in different ways.

The international comparison graphs are therefore comparing numbers of Apples, Oranges, Bananas and Tomatoes and the way the numbers of each change over time.

It is not the absolute number of each that is important, but (provided each set of data is self-consistent over time) the patterns and trends that emerge and differences between the patterns and trends.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (6 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> Certainly does for KingRollo.



Blooming heck! I was under the impression that the NHS was falling apart according to the media and the permanently miserable on social media.

A friend of mine who operates at a fairly senior operational level in the NHS is adamant that our local hospitals and field staff have no shortage of appropriate PPE.

Perhaps the shortages affect some parts of the country more than others?

Once again, I am convinced I live in a parallel universe to that which is described online.


----------



## Rocky (6 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Blooming heck! I was under the impression that the NHS was falling apart according to the media and the permanently miserable on social media.
> 
> A friend of mine who operates at a fairly senior operational level in the NHS is adamant that our local hospitals and field staff have no shortage of appropriate PPE.
> 
> ...


I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. The distribution of PPE is patchy. I know from my son’s experience that there is quite a serious shortage in one London hospital. I also know that many GPs in this area have real problems. I’m sure other places have sufficient PPE to cope.

I’d like to believe the government briefing but my family members working in health care tell me a different story.


----------



## PK99 (6 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Blooming heck! I was under the impression that the NHS was falling apart according to the media and the permanently miserable on social media.
> 
> A friend of mine who operates at a fairly senior operational level in the NHS is adamant that our local hospitals and field staff have no shortage of appropriate PPE.
> 
> ...



If the newspapers report that 50 hospitals have told them that they have PPE supply problems, that sounds a dreadful number and major issue.

What it actually means is that 96% of hospitals* do not have PPE supply problems

*1257 NHS hospitals in the UK, not counting the Nightingales or the Private hospitals currently used by the NHS.


----------



## Inertia (6 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> If the newspapers report that 50 hospitals have told them that they have PPE supply problems, that sounds a dreadful number and major issue.
> 
> What it actually means is that 96% of hospitals* do not have PPE supply problems


You could spin it that way but that isn’t what it means. The only thing it tells you is that 96% of hospitals haven’t contacted the papers to say they have supply problems.

And 50 hospitals still sounds like a lot even if it’s a small proportion of a lot.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 May 2020)

Spiegelhalter seems to be getting fed up with misrespresentations from people such as the Prime Minister..


View: https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1258087627003179009


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> On that exact topic I think face coverings, masks and respirators are becoming less common in shops and outside.



Aye, I noticed that today. In Lidl there was no attempt to control the numbers going in and I was the only one wearing a mask inside. In Waitrose two weeks ago (?), the staff had masks and the clear visors, today none of the staff wore anything. There was only one other customer (that I saw) wearing a mask.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Aye, I noticed that today. In Lidl there was no attempt to control the numbers going in and I was the only one wearing a mask inside. In Waitrose two weeks ago (?), the staff had masks and the clear visors, today none of the staff wore anything. There was only one other customer (that I saw) wearing a mask.


Mask wearing is also becoming less common here and is now almost invisible amongst staff.


----------



## mjr (6 May 2020)

icowden said:


> It won't.
> 
> You are suggesting that every person that the "person with terrorist links" has passed that has the app, is now on a watch list. Everyone at the airport, on the train, who was in the cafe or the newsagent, or that the person walked past on the street is now on the watch list. The security services will have to do some recruiting to cope with the volumes involved. Even if the data were analysed and your relatives phone came up as being in proximity and the security services decided that was interesting enough to look at, unless that person is a "wrong-un" they will quickly exclude that data.
> 
> Secondly the app is using Bluetooth. Almost all mobiles are Class 2 which means Bluetooth has a range of about 10m and range tends to be impaired by things like walls.


Your naive faith in the correct behaviour of the security services is cute. Have you or a close relative ever been watch-listed by them? They really don't need much reason and being on the list doesn't mean they actually watch you 24x7. It just means they can and are set up to do so, including all the permissions to snoop.

Also, apparently sleeping in close proximity is a bit different to walking past them...


----------



## tom73 (6 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> If the newspapers report that 50 hospitals have told them that they have PPE supply problems, that sounds a dreadful number and major issue.
> 
> What it actually means is that 96% of hospitals* do not have PPE supply problems
> 
> *1257 NHS hospitals in the UK, not counting the Nightingales or the Private hospitals currently used by the NHS.



Or put it another way that's 50 hospitals in which staff are being asked to work even though they maybe endangering they're life in the process. Or that's 50 hospitals in which HCP's may have to make a choice of do I save a life or let them die so I can save mine.
The difficulty is you can't be sure which one you end up in.
If only the 190 to date health and social care workers who have sadly died had worked in the 96%.


----------



## All uphill (6 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Your naive faith in the correct behaviour of the security services is cute. Have you or a close relative ever been watch-listed by them? They really don't need much reason and being on the list doesn't mean they actually watch you 24x7. It just means they can and are set up to do so, including all the permissions to snoop.
> 
> Also, apparently sleeping in close proximity is a bit different to walking past them...


And the whole point of these apps is that a lot of tracking can be done without the need for a human input. 

What I have described as one out of a thousand possible scenarios could be completely automated and with no way to know why your travel documents have been refused.


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## tom73 (6 May 2020)

@PK99 a bit of a follow up for you.
The RCN today has published a few stats. over 70% of calls to it's helpline are about lack of PPE, or inadequate standard, or fitting of PPE. 
Since it published guidelines a few weeks ago it's had 101 calls from nurses who after trying all other options. Have considered refusing to treat patients. Some may think well i'd report them get them stuck off. Well the NMC is backing the right for a Nurse not to treat someone if they don't have PPE. Just think about that a statutory body who's main job is to protect the public is so concerned over lack of PPE that it will allow a HCP. To refuse to treat someone if they don't have the correct PPE. 

Even the BMA has just reported 85% of GPs and 38% of hospital doctors have been forced to source their own PPE for themselves or their department to use. 30% said they wouldn’t bother to speak up as they didn’t think anything would be done about it.
one in four doctors either failed or have not been fit tested for an FFP3 mask at all.

So some body along the line is not telling the truth and we still have a big problem that need's fixing.


----------



## kingrollo (6 May 2020)

I don't get the big deal about us not being able to make a fair comparison with Italy and other countries. Sure you add a few on Italy's total and maybe take a few off the UK - then whoop , whoop, - were only the second worst country in Europe.

Which ever way you cut the stats - the UK is going to be there or there about when it comes to most deaths.


----------



## kingrollo (6 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> @PK99 a bit of a follow up for you.
> The RCN today has published a few stats. over 70% of calls to it's helpline are about lack of PPE, or inadequate standard, or fitting of PPE.
> Since it published guidelines a few weeks ago it's had 101 calls from nurses who after trying all other options. Have considered refusing to treat patients. Some may think well i'd report them get them stuck off. Well the NMC is backing the right for a Nurse not to treat someone if they don't have PPE. Just think about that a statutory body who's main job is to protect the public is so concerned over lack of PPE that it will allow a HCP. To refuse to treat someone if they don't have the correct PPE.
> 
> ...


Yeaaaah but I got mate at de ospital u sez there got shitloadz !!!


----------



## kingrollo (6 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Or put it another way that's 50 hospitals in which staff are being asked to work even though they maybe endangering they're life in the process. Or that's 50 hospitals in which HCP's may have to make a choice of do I save a life or let them die so I can save mine.
> The difficulty is you can't be sure which one you end up in.
> If only the 190 to date health and social care workers who have sadly died had worked in the 96%.


I don't get it are people suggesting that 50 hospitals reporting a lack of PPE isn't that bad ? ... unbelievable...


----------



## Slick (6 May 2020)

McWobble said:


> I'll not go into the extremely concerning issues over privacy, and how the really rather invasive data that this app will collect will be stored permanently, and for purposes that we're not being told about.
> 
> There is another very important issue here: the app won't work. There is a good deal of data indicating that as much as half those infected never develop symptoms - but can still be infectious. This app depends on self reporting - all these people will be missed. Furthermore, most of those infected will have a mild illness, so mild that they don't realise that they've caught CV19. These infectious people will also be missed. Indeed, evidence from China, California and Germany is indicating that 90% of cases are missed by the health authorities. This app will miss almost all CV19 cases. This is worse than useless, because this will instill a false sense of security. People will think that they're safe, because this app is telling that when in fact it's missing most infected people.
> 
> An app is no substitute for contact tracing, testing and quarantine for those who are infected. Yet that's exactly what this is being touted as! A contact tracing app of this nature would be of considerable use - if it were backed up by rigorous testing of those who exhibit symptoms, and then rigorous testing of those who've been in close contact (to pick up and quarantine the presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases). But even that does not replace the sheer hard work of conventional contact tracing, only helps it. Unfortunately, we're not doing that. We don't have the testing infrastructure. We don't have the contact tracing infrastructure. We're depending on this app (and on those who're alerted to do the right thing). That will fail, simply because it will inevitably miss most cases.


For me, that's the only issue. If it won't work it's obviously pointless and the only reason I've read so far to not bother downloading it. 

I'm still willing to see the test results and hear what the government and NHS has to say about it when it becomes available to all before really deciding what I will do about it.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (6 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> To tell you the truth, I'm bleedin' fed up with all the talk of masks and PPE in this household. It's been enough to make me want to take a polyamorous lover or develop a mathematical model



mathematical models have good figures. Maybe have a polyamorous relationship with a mathematical model?


----------



## Tanis8472 (6 May 2020)

https://amp.theguardian.com/politic...s-meets-his-match-in-forensic-starmer-at-pmqs


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> https://amp.theguardian.com/politic...s-meets-his-match-in-forensic-starmer-at-pmqs


Of course, a larger share of the printed press won't see it like that. But even the BBC noted that Johnson had repeatedly looked round for rabble rousing support from his own benches only to find that there weren't enough of them there. Those that were there, seemed to be taking things somewhat more seriously, to my eye.


----------



## kingrollo (6 May 2020)

Slick said:


> For me, that's the only issue. If it won't work it's obviously pointless and the only reason I've read so far to not bother downloading it.
> 
> I'm still willing to see the test results and hear what the government and NHS has to say about it when it becomes available to all before really deciding what I will do about it.


It's a bit of a feelgood factor.

If 10 blokes are working on a shop floor - one tests positive - so the 9 other get the self isolate alert and ring the boss "I'm not coming in for the next week " - wonder what the response will be ?


----------



## Slick (6 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It's a bit of a feelgood factor.
> 
> If 10 blokes are working on a shop floor - one tests positive - so the 9 other get the self isolate alert and ring the boss "I'm not coming in for the next week " - wonder what the response will be ?


I asked my boss that very question and as it turns out he knows less about the app than I do.


----------



## randynewmanscat (6 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Of course, a larger share of the printed press won't see it like that. But even the BBC noted that Johnson had repeatedly looked round for rabble rousing support from his own benches only to find that there weren't enough of them there. Those that were there, seemed to be taking things somewhat more seriously, to my eye.


My favourite villain of the printed and online rags tells it like it isn't; "Fiery coronavirus clash" tells you the piece will be a let down by Express standards and it was but the BTL I had to skim through as it is my solemn duty to.
That the Express did not byline this as "Boris dismantles" is telling but the BTL indigenous numbnuts, the bots and the troll farm employees manage to stay on message and ramp up King Boris, for me its all about the troll farm employees.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...-coronavirus-latest-news-politics-news-latest


----------



## midlife (6 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> @PK99 a bit of a follow up for you.
> The RCN today has published a few stats. over 70% of calls to it's helpline are about lack of PPE, or inadequate standard, or fitting of PPE.
> Since it published guidelines a few weeks ago it's had 101 calls from nurses who after trying all other options. Have considered refusing to treat patients. Some may think well i'd report them get them stuck off. Well the NMC is backing the right for a Nurse not to treat someone if they don't have PPE. Just think about that a statutory body who's main job is to protect the public is so concerned over lack of PPE that it will allow a HCP. To refuse to treat someone if they don't have the correct PPE.
> 
> ...



I failed my FFP3 fitting using disposable masks, not an issue at the moment as my service is closed and not needed on the wards but just wondering what is the next step?


----------



## tom73 (7 May 2020)

Remember the 400,000 gowns from Turkey ? 
The order that appeared "magically" that was on , off , not quite ready , coming anytime soon. The one the RAF had to get but made 2 trips for. They've now failed safety tests so can't be used 
So much time lost which could have be used sorting out the suppliers stuck in the "we have PPE / we want to help" logjam 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364


----------



## Edwardoka (7 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Remember the 400,000 gowns from Turkey ?
> The order that appeared "magically" that was on , off , not quite ready , coming anytime soon. The one the RAF had to get but made 2 trips for. They've now failed safety tests so can't be used
> So much time lost which could have be used sorting out the suppliers stuck in the "we have PPE / we want to help" logjam
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364


Did no-one think to test them before ordering them?
Or did the usual "it will be fine" bluster and bravado win out over doing the most basic of due diligence?


----------



## Blue Hills (7 May 2020)

seems irresponsible for the government to let stories circulate that restrictions are to be dramatically eased and to wait until sunday to make announcements about the situation. Especially with it being a bank holiday weekend.
Went out briefly in south london yesterday - may have been my imagination but I had the idea that there was more traffic around.


----------



## marinyork (7 May 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...formation-gps-in-the-dark-over-covid-19-tests

GPs say they don't have access to test results


----------



## Edwardoka (7 May 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> seems irresponsible for the government to let stories circulate that restrictions are to be dramatically eased and to wait until sunday to make announcements about the situation. Especially with it being a bank holiday weekend.
> Went out briefly in south london yesterday - may have been my imagination but I had the idea that there was more traffic around.


There absolutely is more traffic around. I live within earshot of a motorway and when the "lockdown" first kicked in it was eerily quiet.

The noise has steadily been returning in volume and duration, now we're back to distant roar at all hours of day. Plus ça change.


----------



## Blue Hills (7 May 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> There absolutely is more traffic around. I live within earshot of a motorway and when the "lockdown" first kicked in it was eerily quiet.
> 
> The noise has steadily been returning in volume and duration, now we're back to distant roar at all hours of day. Plus ça change.


yes - I was also cycling east up the A13 from london towards barking a couple of days ago - that was surprisingly busy - I had hoped not to be choked by fumes as I was last time I did it.


----------



## marinyork (7 May 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> seems irresponsible for the government to let stories circulate that restrictions are to be dramatically eased and to wait until sunday to make announcements about the situation. Especially with it being a bank holiday weekend.
> Went out briefly in south london yesterday - may have been my imagination but I had the idea that there was more traffic around.



Are they though? Or is it appearances. Picnics, sunshine, seeing limited numbers outside household units. I wouldn't call that so. A five point plan that runs to October if you believe the mirror and other papers.

We have been here before! I think the government are just trying to raise spirits. Everything I have heard the last week from a mental health and isolation perspective has been bad. Households where people live on their own of all ages seem to have been hit particularly hard.


----------



## tom73 (7 May 2020)

@Edwardoka @Blue Hills Traffic is on the up round here too so I asked my LA about setting up safe walking and cycling space post lockdown. 
After few emails later I got called a Zealot unable to see the bigger picture and how it may inconvenience other citizens. 
Head of highways even said having met local cycling groups they'd said they prefer to cycle off road. 
Are they really trying to tell me that the 2 road clubs we have here prefer to cycle off road? 
So the money is going into that she explained why "We think that this will probably get more people cycling than trying to make already congested routes “safe” for them to do.


----------



## DaveReading (7 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> So the money is going into that she explained why "We think that this will probably get more people cycling than trying to make already congested routes “safe” for them to do.



Translation ?


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## marinyork (7 May 2020)

It's a shame because in Manchester and London they seem to he reclaiming space for walking and cycling.


----------



## lane (7 May 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> There absolutely is more traffic around. I live within earshot of a motorway and when the "lockdown" first kicked in it was eerily quiet.
> 
> The noise has steadily been returning in volume and duration, now we're back to distant roar at all hours of day. Plus ça change.



At "height" of the lockdown we were down to 1970s levels of traffic. Wonder what decade we are up to now?


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## tom73 (7 May 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Translation ?


It's her attempt at explaining way spending money they have will go on off road cycling and not on safe on road cycling. 
By safe I think she's trying quote be back at myself. As I'd explained that the current white paint or blue signs they love to use are not safe. Even though they publicly say they are on the council website.


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## tom73 (7 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's a shame because in Manchester and London they seem to he reclaiming space for walking and cycling.


I know some areas are really getting in this and with any luck some of it may stay.


----------



## mjr (7 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's her attempt at explaining way spending money they have will go on off road cycling and not on safe on road cycling.
> By safe I think she's trying quote be back at myself. As I'd explained that the current white paint or blue signs they love to use are not safe. Even though they publicly say they are on the council website.


Could you post a bit more about this to https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/cycling-and-the-coronavirus.258062/ or https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/cycling-uk-advice-coronavirus.258555/ (CUK is campaigning for roads-closed-except-cycles) please? Even Belgium is using far cough concrete blocks to close lanes to cars, not only paint, despite presumed liability and IMO friendlier drivers than NL.


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## mjr (7 May 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Did no-one think to test them before ordering them?
> Or did the usual "it will be fine" bluster and bravado win out over doing the most basic of due diligence?


Even if they tested a sample prepurchase, they'd still need to test a sample of the shipped order unless you're willing to trust the supplier completely with NHS lives unnecessarily.


----------



## mjr (7 May 2020)

vickster said:


> What would actually meet your expectations? Tests available, people have to actually go to get them if they have the symptoms, don’t think current tests pick up a non existent virus or one that has cleared?) Does desktop testing now exist that could safely be put in every GP surgery? What’s the point in testing everyone? Would you have to do it every day in case someone wasn't symptomatic but possibly incubating yesterday?


No, don't let perfectionism be the enemy of the good! More testing would probably be better but weekly would be better than now.

You're not gonna like it, but my preferred approach would be to do whatever we can to follow Germany. So we can't move Roche here, but we have GSK and AstraZeneca and some great universities, so we shouldn't be totally farked on that front. Ramp uptesting, not for a day, properly. I'd send the army in, properly in, in charge, to logistics and containment of hotspots. I'd devolve unlocking and other things like transport to the metro mayors and arbitrarily create metro mayors for the rest of England, maybe bootstrapped from counties and unitaries - a total reverse of previous Tory policy but we've had plenty of those in this crisis - in an attempt to replicate the German states.

Yes, a whole infrastructure has to be created, but the govt is only doing a few high-profile bits of it and we need more! We deserve more! Not distractions on Turkish coats and app fiddle.


----------



## Andy in Germany (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'd offer to run the country but I'm too busy currently with my polyamorous lover and my mathematical models.



Will that take you all day? Come on man, Blitz Spirit...


----------



## Rusty Nails (7 May 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Did no-one think to test them before ordering them?
> Or did the usual "it will be fine" bluster and bravado win out over doing the most basic of due diligence?



Or did the quality of stuff delivered not meet the specifications ordered/promised?

I don't know, do you?


----------



## Julia9054 (7 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Head of highways even said having met local cycling groups they'd said they prefer to cycle off road.


Are they planning on creating an off road route for everywhere anyone might need to go? That sounds good!


----------



## marinyork (7 May 2020)

mjr said:


> No, don't let perfectionism be the enemy of the good! More testing would probably be better but weekly would be better than now.
> 
> You're not gonna like it, but my preferred approach would be to do whatever we can to follow Germany. So we can't move Roche here, but we have GSK and AstraZeneca and some great universities, so we shouldn't be totally farked on that front. Ramp uptesting, not for a day, properly. I'd send the army in, properly in, in charge, to logistics and containment of hotspots. I'd devolve unlocking and other things like transport to the metro mayors and arbitrarily create metro mayors for the rest of England, maybe bootstrapped from counties and unitaries - a total reverse of previous Tory policy but we've had plenty of those in this crisis - in an attempt to replicate the German states.
> 
> Yes, a whole infrastructure has to be created, but the govt is only doing a few high-profile bits of it and we need more! We deserve more! Not distractions on Turkish coats and app fiddle.



There's copying Germany and copying Germany. For me this means not focussing on PCR which is a useful, but flawed technology in it's early form, which is ultimately where most of the arguments come in.

I think the government needs to iron out issues with PCR and then stop focussing on that so much. For PCR aspects carry on working on tech and logistical innovations that'll make it run better/more local. 

The government needs an antibody plan over the summer. There are over the summer easily available packages that can be sent to laboratories on a mass scale compared to what's gone on till now. The government need to do more immunity research (I believe they have been doing it, but kept it almost completely secret), pass legislation to stop people discriminating on the virus (this was in the SPI-B stuff and the scariest bit as the government don't seem to have listened to any of it). 

Germany has already done some studies on percentage of the population that's had it (worryingly for much of Europe one study suggested 2%). We haven't, although IPSOS Mori teaming up with researchers are supposed to be doing that this week - results when? These studies are only the start we'll have to do wave after wave of them the next 12 months.


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## tom73 (7 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Are they planning on creating an off road route for everywhere anyone might need to go? That sounds good!


I agree that wound be a great idea 
I was trying to explain that's what we really need and a bike is more than just something for a Sunday afternoon potter in the park.
Sadly no what they are talking about having put together what I know and has been made public.
Is something they already had planned months ago. 
Which when you look is two short sections of cycle path linking 2 industrial estates to the near by housing estates. 
I asked how do get them by car ? That's was in the email which got the reply which called me a zealot.


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## Rusty Nails (7 May 2020)

I have some concerns over privacy and mass surveillance, but I am in two minds over this app, assuming of course that the government can get the technology to work properly.

If the more pessimistic scenario means that there could be a lot more deaths with further waves then I would reluctantly be prepared to risk its use as a _temporary_ measure, if it helps significantly reduce the numbers.

If we have reached the peak and things are likely to carry on improving I am not sure the privacy risk is worth taking.

Like everything in this pandemic we will not know if, or how much, it improves things until after it has been tried, so it also makes sense to trial it first, although how typical the IoW is of the rest of the UK, and how you extrapolate the results of a small island trial nationally in a limited timescale, I do not know.


----------



## lane (7 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Or did the quality of stuff delivered not meet the specifications ordered/promised?
> 
> I don't know, do you?



I think the main priority at the time was to have something to announce at the evening press conferences. To a point it achieved what it needed to.


----------



## Rusty Nails (7 May 2020)

lane said:


> I think the main priority at the time was to have something to announce at the evening press conferences. To a point it achieved what it needed to.



Our demand for instant information forces the government into decisions for PR purposes.


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## Edwardoka (7 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Or did the quality of stuff delivered not meet the specifications ordered/promised?
> 
> I don't know, do you?


Let's apply Occam's Razor

I've been on both sides of the User Acceptance Testing procedure and know that the only way to cover your ass is to sign off on nothing until both sides have done thorough testing well in advance of any product being shipped.

What's easier to believe:

that the batch they tested before signing off on the consignments met the specifications and everything else didn't
that Turkey did a switcheroo because reasons
that the UK government got a procurement process badly wrong (they are so well known for their excellent procurement!)
Bear in mind that this is the same government that

had a public policy of herd immunity and "take it on the chin"
hired a noted eugenicist
was slow to react, when it finally did as described in detail upthread
claimed to have performed three hundred thousand and thirty four, nine hundred and seventy four thousand coronavirus tests despite that not being a number
is led by a man so idiotic and arrogant that he went to a ward where they were treating covid patients and shook everyone's hand
created a rod for its own back by talking about 100,000 tests per day without providing any of the surrounding procedures that makes those tests meaningful
managed 100,000 tests for for one day using extremely creative accounting, and then subsequently failed to get close to 100,000 tests in any day since
has presided over the second highest number of covid deaths in the world despite having a significant warning period AND inbuilt point-of-entry infrastructure
contains most of the people who were involved in the last government's noted high points like awarding a ferry contract to a company with no ferries
Hmm I dunno man. This seems too complex to figure out. I am 110,034 348,000% sure it wasn't the UK government's procurement process though.


----------



## Rusty Nails (7 May 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Let's apply Occam's Razor
> 
> I've been on both sides of the User Acceptance Testing procedure and know that the only way to cover your ass is to sign off on nothing until both sides have done thorough testing well in advance of any product being shipped.
> 
> ...



It's easier and more reliable to wait for information before reaching conclusions.


----------



## Edwardoka (7 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> It's easier and more reliable to wait for information before reaching conclusions.


Indeed. I laid out several hypotheses. The application of Occam's razor is an exercise best left to the reader.

Edit to add: sorry if I was being obnoxious, I received some terrible news earlier (not covid related) and it's put me in a very odd headspace. Hiatus time, methinks.

Be well, folks.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (7 May 2020)

One thing's for sure, we need to take a long hard look at the NHS when this is all over. How the hell some hospitals can report no issues with PPE whatsoever whilst other ones are ripping up bin bags to wear isn't anything to do with government, it's to do with rank incompetence by some NHS managers. As a whole, the NHS has performed magnificently but some parts appear to have really screwed the pooch.

We also need to look at care homes. Again, some have been terrible but a lot of them have coped well, have zero infections and no issues. They don't make the news though.

As for the care homes that are increasing charges to residents to cover the costs of PPE...


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## tom73 (7 May 2020)

What ever maybe why we have problem. The problem remains that the NHS is still 400,000 gowns down and that staff will be the ones who have deal with the shortfall.


----------



## johnblack (7 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> One thing's for sure, we need to take a long hard look at the NHS when this is all over. How the hell some hospitals can report no issues with PPE whatsoever whilst other ones are ripping up bin bags to wear isn't anything to do with government, it's to do with rank incompetence by some NHS managers. As a whole, the NHS has performed magnificently but some parts appear to have really screwed the pooch.
> 
> We also need to look at care homes. Again, some have been terrible but a lot of them have coped well, have zero infections and no issues. They don't make the news though.
> 
> As for the care homes that are increasing charges to residents to cover the costs of PPE...


It's a huge, centralised, bureaucratic monolith, that resists change. It is amazing that it achieves what it does.


----------



## kingrollo (7 May 2020)

lane said:


> At "height" of the lockdown we were down to 1970s levels of traffic. Wonder what decade we are up to now?



traffic feels slightly less than traffic in a half term week here in the west midlands


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## mjr (7 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> [...] whilst other ones are ripping up bin bags to wear isn't anything to do with government, it's to do with rank incompetence by some NHS managers. [...]


How can mismanagement be nothing to do with government? The government manages the top layer of managers! The government decides to let managers carry on failing instead of sending in the military. The government stands idly by and fires more workers into the herd immunity plan.


----------



## mjr (7 May 2020)

Is there any website tracking national estimates of R0 rates?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (7 May 2020)

I've been working at my office throughout the lockdown and traffic this week is easily double what it was the week before, which was about double that of the previous week. Where I was once probably one of 60 cars that I would see throughout my entire journey, I now have a full lane of traffic ahead and behind me on the motorway for as far as I can see.

I don't know why this is happening.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (7 May 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I've been working at my office throughout the lockdown and traffic this week is easily double what it was the week before, which was about double that of the previous week. Where I was once probably one of 60 cars that I would see throughout my entire journey, I now have a full lane of traffic ahead and behind me on the motorway for as far as I can see.
> 
> I don't know why this is happening.



Sturgeon can stand up and say what she likes, it's being ignored. I saw more masks being worn in the supermarket *before* she said people should be wearing them indoors. Traffic is up again today, noticeably so. My 10 mile loop in the mornings finishes on a main road. For the last few weeks I haven't had to slow down to join it as there's been little to no traffic. Today I had to stop and wait for a gap in traffic, as pedestrians brushed by me on either side. I saw a team of roofers tiling a roof - 3 of them, zero distancing and zero PPE. Salesmen working inside Arnold Clark showrooms and busy petrol stations.


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## Unkraut (7 May 2020)

More info on the hotspot study made about a month ago. This indicates that about 22% of people infected show no symptoms or are so slight they basically ignore them. Where one member of a family becomes infected there is on average about a 15% chance of other members also being infected. This is significantly higher where there are just two in the household, and surprisingly lower with families of 4. In this regard the corona virus is acting like many other viruses and bugs that have been investigated. The death rate from this study is 0.37%, but this if significantly different depending on age - I think that has been general knowledge for ages though.

The latest RO rate for Baden-Württemberg, one of the three worst hit states in Germany, is currently 0.65, which may well account for the willingness to lift many of the current restrictions.


----------



## marinyork (7 May 2020)

Unkraut said:


> The latest RO rate for Baden-Württemberg, one of the three worst hit states in Germany, is currently 0.65, which may well account for the willingness to lift many of the current restrictions.



Interesting. Imperial have said for a while that uk wide they believe it is 0.7, but the public think it's too early to lift a lot of restrictions. Vallance said it's between 0.6 and 0.9. It's since been disclosed on tv that for Scotland it is 0.9.


----------



## Andy in Germany (7 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Interesting. Imperial have said for a while that uk wide they believe it is 0.7, but the public think it's too early to lift a lot of restrictions. Vallance said it's between 0.6 and 0.9. It's since been disclosed on tv that for Scotland it is 0.9.



You may be right there: there's been a slight increase in infections and deaths in Germany for the last two days: the rate was slowing before.


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## Pat "5mph" (7 May 2020)

I'm furlonged, so I'm doing some charity/community volunteering.
Being in the community is giving me stress: elderly that go on shopping journeys for the sake of it, in spite of having support, even lying to their family members about staying in.
Masks and gloves put in pockets, on the neck, reused, all sorts ...
Visiting between different households, social distance not observed.
Slowly but surely catering outlets are reopening, for take away and deliveries, causing the inevitable assemblies on the pavement.
How are staff in small shops/kitchens/counters social distancing from each other?
I fear here in Scotland we are going to have a surge of the virus.


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## Joey Shabadoo (7 May 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> I'm furlonged, so I'm doing some charity/community volunteering.
> Being in the community is giving me stress: elderly that go on shopping journeys for the sake of it, in spite of having support, even lying to their family members about staying in.
> Masks and gloves put in pockets, on the neck, reused, all sorts ...
> Visiting between different households, social distance not observed.
> ...


I think so too. I've commented a few times about my neighbour - an elderly, frail lady - being visited repeatedly by various family members every day, even having a party at one point. What's stayed my hand about reporting them is apparently people with a short life expectancy are "excused" shielding. To be fair, she's visibly poorer as the weeks have gone by so it could be her family are determined to be with her near the end. 

My wife noticed someone on the neighbourhood app she's part of asking if someone should call the police at the large numbers of people coming and going from the house, but the post was quickly taken down again. So others are noticing it as well.


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## johnblack (7 May 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> You may be right there: there's been a slight increase in infections and deaths in Germany for the last two days: the rate was slowing before.


I think I read the other day that Sweden is at 0.85.


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## Pat "5mph" (7 May 2020)

Some people just don't get it: like, my neighborg upstairs, his colleague (both college teachers) lost her father, mother in law, father in law to the virus a couple of weeks ago.
He went to the funerals.
And yet, said colleague came visit, they spoke face to face for half an hour.
Elderly couple down the road (both over 80) has family support to bring them anything they want, plus me for bits and pieces should they need.
And yet, the both of them go queuing to the shops, they say they don't care if they catch the corona.
Why have I lost my job???


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## Joey Shabadoo (7 May 2020)

There's arguably profiteering going on too. Mrs S orders online so usually gets the same stuff or similar every week. Our weekly grocery bill from Tesco has been £80-90 for months. Since lockdown, it's risen to over £120. I was looking at a workstand for the bike on Amazon before the lockdown and saw a basic model at £32 so put it in my "maybe" list. Checked it yesterday and it's £45.


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## BoldonLad (7 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> One thing's for sure, we need to take a long hard look at the NHS when this is all over. How the hell some hospitals can report no issues with PPE whatsoever whilst other ones are ripping up bin bags to wear isn't anything to do with government, it's to do with rank incompetence by some NHS managers. As a whole, the NHS has performed magnificently but some parts appear to have really screwed the pooch.
> 
> We also need to look at care homes. Again, some have been terrible but a lot of them have coped well, have zero infections and no issues. They don't make the news though.
> 
> As for the care homes that are increasing charges to residents to cover the costs of PPE...



To be sure. 

The "N" in NHS presumably stands for National, in my experience, it is anything but National, it is a series of little kingdoms.

The "S" in NHS, presumably stands for Service, it is anything but a Service.


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## BoldonLad (7 May 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Some people just don't get it: like, my neighborg upstairs, his colleague (both college teachers) lost her father, mother in law, father in law to the virus a couple of weeks ago.
> He went to the funerals.
> And yet, said colleague came visit, they spoke face to face for half an hour.
> Elderly couple down the road (both over 80) has family support to bring them anything they want, plus me for bits and pieces should they need.
> ...



Good question. 

Did anyone ask the "vulnerable" if they wanted to be "protected"?


----------



## Rocky (7 May 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> To be sure.
> 
> The "N" in NHS presumably stands for National, in my experience, it is anything but National, it is a series of little kingdoms.
> 
> The "S" in NHS, presumably stands for Service, it is anything but a Service.


The NHS has been reorganised so many times by various governments over the last 20 years that I've lost count. Do not blame the NHS for any of this mess. Blame the government and various Health Secretaries. One of the people who caused the greatest damage was Andrew Lansley - moving public health to local authorities was an act of untold hooliganism and we are currently experiencing the harm that this caused. The NHS is managed and staffed by dedicated individuals who spend much of their time trying to develop workarounds to circumvent the bureaucratic straightjackets left by both Labour and Conservatives. The NHS is not at fault. Politicians are.


----------



## alicat (7 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> What's stayed my hand about reporting them is apparently people with a short life expectancy are "excused" shielding. To be fair, she's visibly poorer as the weeks have gone by so it could be her family are determined to be with her near the end.



That's what happening with my neighbour. I was concerned about her failing memory so I contacted her daughter. The daughter helped me understand why they were visiting more than might otherwise be ideal.


----------



## Rocky (7 May 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Good question.
> 
> Did anyone ask the "vulnerable" if they wanted to be "protected"?


If they'd seen the pain and lonely deaths from Covid that my junior doctor son has been witnessing over these last few months......they'd want to be protected.


----------



## Andy in Germany (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> If they'd seen the pain and lonely deaths from Covid that my junior doctor son has been witnessing over these last few months......they'd want to be protected.



Trouble is, I suspect many can't see that but do see the cold and lonely reality of not being able to talk to anyone. I many older people will be genuinely frightened, about either becoming depressed or losing their mental faculties because they're on their own.


----------



## Mo1959 (7 May 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> I fear here in Scotland we are going to have a surge of the virus.


Sitting here watching the update with the window open. Cars passing every few seconds. Two weeks ago there was virtually none. It feels like people have lost patience and are reverting to normal.


----------



## tom73 (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The NHS has been reorganised so many times by various governments over the last 20 years that I've lost count. Do not blame the NHS for any of this mess. Blame the government and various Health Secretaries. One of the people who caused the greatest damage was Andrew Lansley - moving public health to local authorities was an act of untold hooliganism and we are currently experiencing the harm that this caused. The NHS is managed and staffed by dedicated individuals who spend much of their time trying to develop workarounds to circumvent the bureaucratic straightjackets left by both Labour and Conservatives. The NHS is not at fault. Politicians are.



Not forgetting Monitor and we'd no sooner seen off Andrew old Jeramy came along. Though we better not say too much about him


----------



## BoldonLad (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> If they'd seen the pain and lonely deaths from Covid that my junior doctor son has been witnessing over these last few months......they'd want to be protected.



You of course are at liberty to think that. It may or may not be true.


----------



## BoldonLad (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The NHS has been reorganised so many times by various governments over the last 20 years that I've lost count. Do not blame the NHS for any of this mess. Blame the government and various Health Secretaries. One of the people who caused the greatest damage was Andrew Lansley - moving public health to local authorities was an act of untold hooliganism and we are currently experiencing the harm that this caused. The NHS is managed and staffed by dedicated individuals who spend much of their time trying to develop workarounds to circumvent the bureaucratic straightjackets left by both Labour and Conservatives. The NHS is not at fault. Politicians are.



I have worked in the NHS.

Mrs @BoldonLad worked in the NHS.

Eldest daughter works in the NHS.

Youngest daughter worked in NHS.


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## BoldonLad (7 May 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Sitting here watching the update with the window open. Cars passing every few seconds. Two weeks ago there was virtually none. It feels like people have lost patience and are reverting to normal.



Very true. 

In the area I live, traffic levels have increased, particularly motorcycles, examples of groups of (mostly, but not exclusively, young) people riding bicycles, are much more noticeable.

Hardly surprising with the constant media harping on an "end to lock down", before lockdown, the mantra was " we should;d have lock down", now we have it, the mantra is "when will it end". Laura Koronaberg and Robert Pestilence have a lot to answer for. IMHO.


----------



## PK99 (7 May 2020)

Folks might be interested in the British Columbia restart plan, published today:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/...y/covid-19-provincial-support/bc-restart-plan

and may care to note that BC, like New Zealand, has an in place an extensive system of Emergency planning - Tsunami, Forest fires, Earthquakes are ever present threats, they have systems that kicked in for Covid-19
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery


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## Unkraut (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The NHS has been reorganised so many times by various governments over the last 20 years


Whereas over here ... it (healthcare) has been subject to major reorganisation 5 times in 10 years. This from my former GP who retired slightly early because he was in part fed up with the ever increasing amount of bureaucracy. Juggling ever new or expensive treatments with budgets is something afflicting all healthcare systems, this is by no means unique to Britain.


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## oldwheels (7 May 2020)

Out cycling last Sunday morning between 0930 and 1030 I was passed by more than a dozen cars. I lost count after 10. There seemed no pattern so far as direction was concerned but an increase of 100% on the previous Sunday.
On the other hand living in a small community still pretty well sealed off there is no evidence of relaxation. The Coop queue is well spaced and the numbers inside are strictly controlled. Cafes and some independent food shops are only doing carryout with prepayment by card and free delivery is offered. This also applies to the pharmacy.
I have a blood sample and B12 appointment next week which had to be discussed with a GP before being allowed. When I go for the appointment I wait in the car and phone my arrival to the office before a nurse will come for me. It seems to be assumed that everybody has a car and a mobile phone.
On the local Facebook page most are quite frightened of any relaxation and there is discussion about how this could be achieved with minimum risk.
The tourist accommodation outlets in general seem to be reconciled to losing the whole year's income. There are a few who favour opening all inward travel at once but this is not a popular idea as we have a fair proportion of elderly residents as well as those with known health problems.
For myself I am very frustrated at losing a large slice of any remaining active life I may have but equally I am not prepared for any undue risk so not happy but will sit tight.
Finally cycling yesterday morning at same time as Sunday no significant traffic to bother me.


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## Rusty Nails (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> If they'd seen the pain and lonely deaths from Covid that my junior doctor son has been witnessing over these last few months......they'd want to be protected.



I can understand the reasoning behind this, but again with several reservations:

Are we talking about anyone 70+ as vulnerable, or the clinically extremely vulnerable?

Are the restrictions designed to protect the elderly or the NHS (and by extension the government)? The shocking situation in care homes sadly makes me suspect the former is not 100% true.

Is it easier to just have broad age based restrictions rather than a more precise definition, which also takes into account vulnerability factors such as sex, ethnicity and obesity levels, but which would be much more controversial and divisive to implement?



I declare an interest here as a fit and relatively healthy 70+ with a distrust of authority and blanket restrictions, but who will try to obey the rules.


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## Rocky (7 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I can understand the reasoning behind this, but again with several reservations:
> 
> Are we talking about anyone 70+ as vulnerable, or the clinically extremely vulnerable?
> 
> ...


I’m not really talking about any specific group. I’m coming to the conclusion that many people don’t fully understand what could happen to those people who end up dying of Covid. If they did, perhaps they’d behave in a different way and take notice of the social distancing guidelines that were being flouted in the post I was responding to.

As an aside, I think many of our frontline healthcare staff are going to need support when this is over. My son has already seen far more death in the last two months than in his previous 28 years. It is part of the job but you wouldn’t be human if it didn’t affect you.


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## marinyork (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> As an aside, I think many of our frontline healthcare staff are going to need support when this is over. My son has already seen far more death in the last two months than in his previous 28 years. It is part of the job but you wouldn’t be human if it didn’t affect you.



Tsunami is a word used locally. The pentuple whammy of workers, recovered patients, people who lockdown has made them worse (regressed months or years), people who lockdown has developed new mental health problems and finally the latent demand of those who didn't seek help before the crisis (a very interesting group).


----------



## oldwheels (7 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I can understand the reasoning behind this, but again with several reservations:
> 
> Are we talking about anyone 70+ as vulnerable, or the clinically extremely vulnerable?
> 
> ...


Cannot remember the context but was some politician or perhaps "commentator" not caught on camera saying "So what does it matter if some pensioners die?"


----------



## Rusty Nails (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m not really talking about any specific group. I’m coming to the conclusion that many people don’t fully understand what could happen to those people who end up dying of Covid. If they did, perhaps they’d behave in a different way and take notice of the social distancing guidelines that were being flouted in the post I was responding to.
> 
> As an aside, I think many of our frontline healthcare staff are going to need support when this is over. My son has already seen far more death in the last two months than in his previous 28 years. It is part of the job but you wouldn’t be human if it didn’t affect you.



Sorry for getting the full meaning of your post wrong.

From what I've read I agree 100% on the unpleasant nature of Covid deaths, and suspect that many NHS staff will suffer from a form of PTSD or depression over the coming years.


----------



## Rocky (7 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Sorry for getting the full meaning of your post wrong.


My fault for the clumsy wording......apologies.


----------



## Rusty Nails (7 May 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Cannot remember the context but was some politician or perhaps "commentator" not caught on camera saying "So what does it matter if some pensioners die?"



The story going round some time ago was that this, or a variation of it, was said by Dominic Cummings.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...dominic-cummings-argued-to-let-old-people-die


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## oldwheels (7 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The story going round some time ago was that this, or a variation of it, was said by Dominic Cummings.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/politic...dominic-cummings-argued-to-let-old-people-die


Sounds likely.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (7 May 2020)

In Stirling today, a 22 year old victim of the virus was buried. Unable to attend the funeral, around 50 family and friends had a procession through the town centre with a piper. There was no social distancing, they walked arm in arm and hugging each other. A few people phoned the police who said there was nothing they could do to stop them.


----------



## Salty seadog (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'd offer to run the country but I'm too busy currently with my polyamorous lover and my mathematical models.



Hi Neil....


----------



## Inertia (7 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The story going round some time ago was that this, or a variation of it, was said by Dominic Cummings.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/politic...dominic-cummings-argued-to-let-old-people-die


I really hope it isnt true. Its one thing to debate the difficult issues and make tough decisions and know that loss is inevitable, its another to be callous about it.


----------



## tom73 (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m not really talking about any specific group. I’m coming to the conclusion that many people don’t fully understand what could happen to those people who end up dying of Covid. If they did, perhaps they’d behave in a different way and take notice of the social distancing guidelines that were being flouted in the post I was responding to.
> 
> As an aside, I think many of our frontline healthcare staff are going to need support when this is over. My son has already seen far more death in the last two months than in his previous 28 years. It is part of the job but you wouldn’t be human if it didn’t affect you.



Very much so they will experts in PTSD gave warnings early on about this.
For many Allied HCP's who rarely if at all see people die who now find themselves working full time in critical care areas.
They will need help for sure it will have been a very shape learning curve.
Most staff welfare is down to each trust but this will be way too big and way too important to leave it up to "try and see what help you can get" approach. It's going to need a national approach and its not just the only mental health support that will need one after this is over.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (7 May 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Trouble is, I suspect many can't see that but do see the cold and lonely reality of not being able to talk to anyone. I many older people will be genuinely frightened, about either becoming depressed or losing their mental faculties because they're on their own.


This may be true for many, I don't doubt it. Still, would they rather die? I don't have the answer, of course.
I have the answer from the elderly I am talking to when I do my community volunteering: they say they have support (which I know is true because I know the families) but they simply don't care about the corona, it's not going to affect them because a) the war b) they are independent c) if they get it they get it.
Even when they are told they could give it to their spouses, they still don't care.


Joey Shabadoo said:


> In Stirling today, a 22 year old victim of the virus was buried. Unable to attend the funeral, around 50 family and friends had a procession through the town centre with a piper. There was no social distancing, they walked arm in arm and hugging each other. A few people phoned the police who said there was nothing they could do to stop them.


Meanwhile, Agnes (name changed), 72 years old, tells me her nephew that lives in London has driven the 500 smash miles and back to Glasgow to be at a family friend's funeral.
Next door to me, now the families and kids mingling are 3!
Yes, because Kimberly never left the house, so it's safe I pick my daughter up to stay with me (been working till last week), my girlfriend, her son.
Ah, her sister and kids are coming too, they haven't left their house for weeks either, apart from shopping and such...
We are doomed!


----------



## Rusty Nails (7 May 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> This may be true for many, I don't doubt it. Still, would they rather die? I don't have the answer, of course.
> I have the answer from the elderly I am talking to when I do my community volunteering: they say they have support (which I know is true because I know the families) but they simply don't care about the corona, it's not going to affect them because a) the war b) they are independent c) if they get it they get it.
> Even when they are told they could give it to their spouses, they still don't care.
> 
> ...



It happens.

People break the rules/guidelines, not just the people next door, but Princes, politicians, Medical Health Officers and Government Advisors working on lockdown guidelines.

You can only limit it by public censure because the only way to stop it is to become the sort of autocracy that is so far away from the freedoms we take for granted.


----------



## mjr (7 May 2020)

I think I would be moving out of Glasgow if I could! Or really hiding away from those people at least.

It seems Belgium is going for a "up to 4 family and friends" plan as part of unlocking. https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-n...xit-plan-what-having-4-guests-actually-means/


----------



## tom73 (7 May 2020)

More time wasting
Only now are NHSX worried people won't use the app due to privacy safeguards so are racing to fix it.
https://www.theguardian.com/technol...prove-contact-tracing-apps-privacy-safeguards

A total rethink maybe on the cards and they are thinking apple/google way was better after all.
https://appleinsider.com/articles/2...m-reportedly-mulls-switch-to-apple-google-api

But wait it just got worse Hancock has now put Dido Harding in charge of test, track and trace programme.
Remember her ? She the former CEO of TalkTalk who on her watch suffered a major data breach and failed to properly notify affected customers. She also did all them interviews and appeared clueless about just how bad it was.

Oh well can't get much worse can it


----------



## Wobblers (7 May 2020)

DaveReading said:


> I was quoting the BBC, but I don't know their source.
> 
> That said, I've also read a number or reports like the WHO's that put the percentage of symptomless infections much higher.
> 
> I suppose one reason for the difference could be how you define a symptom, for example whether you include something like loss of sense of smell, which is reportedly very common, or just count the classic fever/headache/breathing symptoms.



It's a big issue. We still don't know with any certaincy about how this virus affects people - or, just as importantly, why the consequences for some are so much so severe than others. The papers I've looked at and posted links to a few weeks ago (seems a lot longer now!) had data which suggested that at least 90% of infections were going unnoticed by the authorities. The lowest figure, 67%, was used by Neil Ferguson in modelling the consequences of the epidemic in his paper that changed government policy back in March. This means that only the most severe infections are noted, and that most are mild or asymptomatic. Which is a good thing - it means the actual case fatality rate is lower than the published figures.

What is relevant here is that these people with mild symptoms are still infectious. We need to get those people into quarantine. We can't test everyone, but testing those with the obvious symptoms -and isolating them! - is an essential first step. This is where contact tracing comes in - to test those that have been in contact with the overtly infected and isolate those which test positive. Note that there is no country which has succeeded in stemming this virus by use of an app alone. In every case it's been through the use of testing, contact tracing and quarantine. 

An app that misses 90% of all potential transmissions is of little use. The case of Singapore amply demonstrates this. They did well in the beginning, containing the virus using testing and contact tracing. Unfortunately, CV19 cases have risen sharply - seemingly at the same time that they failed to adequately test their migrant worker communities. The Singapore contact tracing app has had little effect in slowing the spread of the virus.


----------



## Wobblers (7 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I've tried to offer some suggestions on the way forward.....in summary:
> 
> Face coverings for the public
> Get the PPE procurement portal sorted
> ...



To this I'd add get a large organisation of contact tracers on the ground before ending lockdown so that those people who've been exposed to those who test positive can be tracked down, tested and if necessary isolated. This'll help reduce transmission by people who're asymptomatic.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 May 2020)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ETnBooCYSg


Sickening

However -


----------



## stowie (8 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> It happens.
> 
> People break the rules/guidelines, not just the people next door, but Princes, politicians, Medical Health Officers and Government Advisors working on lockdown guidelines.
> 
> You can only limit it by public censure because the only way to stop it is to become the sort of autocracy that is so far away from the freedoms we take for granted.



The Daily Mail is running an entire spread on the lifting of the lockdown. Activity details, dates the full works.

Where does this information come from? Do journalists make it up? Is the government leaking information? Is the Tory party?

It is collapsing the resolve of people and sending out such dangerous messages. If it will be alright to sunbathe and chill outside on Monday why not during the lovely bank holiday weekend? After all, it is only a couple of days early. I expect this weekend will see widespread flouting of current restrictions.

This is dangerous stuff. We walking a tightrope between more and more economic damage due to lockdown and potentially catastrophic resurgence of the disease - which will in itself be hugely damaging to the economy even ignoring the human and healthcare aspects.

I refuse to believe our national character somehow makes us weaker to accept restrictions than other countries. We need clear messages backed up by enforcement. The government's strategy seems to be falling apart.


----------



## Wobblers (8 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> There's copying Germany and copying Germany. For me this means not focussing on PCR which is a useful, but flawed technology in it's early form, which is ultimately where most of the arguments come in.
> 
> I think the government needs to iron out issues with PCR and then stop focussing on that so much. For PCR aspects carry on working on tech and logistical innovations that'll make it run better/more local.
> 
> ...



It looks like antibody testing is of limited use.

IgM is only detectable 7 days after symptoms develop. For IgG, this is 10 days. Antibody testing will thus miss presymptomatic cases and those in the early stages of the disease - which is probably also when they're at their most infectious. These are the people you most need to track down and isolate. Additionally, people still shed virus even after symptoms subside, so IgM / IgG is not a reliable marker of when someone is no longer infectious.

At the moment, the only test we have that will serve both purposes is PCR, for all its dismal false negative rate. We need a more reliable, easier and quicker test than PCR, especially for contact tracing. Sadly, I don't think that antibody testing will pass muster: the adaptive immune system just takes too long to make the immunoglobin. Do you know of anything on the horizon?


----------



## Wobblers (8 May 2020)

stowie said:


> The Daily Mail is running an entire spread on the lifting of the lockdown. Activity details, dates the full works.
> 
> Where does this information come from? Do journalists make it up? Is the government leaking information? Is the Tory party?
> 
> ...



I'm becoming increasingly pessimistic about the chances of there not being a second, larger wave . We still don't have any of the necessary testing contact tracing infrastructure in place that's needed to ensure community transmission doesn't take off again once restrictions are lifted.

I also have noticed a significant increase in traffic over the past week or so here. In fact, the roads are almost as busy now as they were before the lockdown. I now fear that any attempt to reinstate a lockdown if there is a second wave will be widely ignored - many people will reason that if it didn't work last time, why bother now? This will lead to a far larger number of deaths than we've had so far as a result.

I hope I'm very wrong.


----------



## randynewmanscat (8 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Some light for me, unless things change drastically my playpen is to be expanded on the 11th of May. The detail is to be fleshed out in the days before the 11th but I will have to stay in my department and the bars, cafes and restaurants that make life social will not be considered until June. I personally doubt they will be allowed to open in June. The south west has largely dodged the horror that was visited on the north east, Paris, Grand Est.
> View attachment 519071


Next Monday I get a longer leash, I think I will let others get out before me, I'm no early adopter. The numbers for my department on 30/04 and on 06/05. The green and red map of France no longer has the orange departments of uncertainty to the centre east as the government finalised its plan to ease restrictions.
Its a late night for me, I've been out planting vegetables, yes in the middle of the night.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 May 2020)

From the BBC, a reason why we're screwed https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-52494254



> The head of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce has defended the decision by many small businesses, such as shops and coffee bars , to re-open despite the lockdown being extended. He said there were many businesses out there who were dismayed at the first minister's announcement of a further three weeks of restrictions. *But he said it was unfair to say they are taking the law into their own hands.*



That's *exactly* what they're doing and I would hope any business doing this is closed down permanently.



> Some businesses have now learned how operate effectively under Covid-19 with social distancing with an entirely responsible approach to business. The guidance is quite loose, the legislation quite broad, so businesses can interpret themselves what is possible and what is safe to do in this environment.
> Tim Allan President, Scottish Chambers of Commerce



Great. So Beryl who runs a coffee shop is now a medical expert, specialising in virology is she?


----------



## kingrollo (8 May 2020)

I dreamt last night that Nigel Farage had organised a lift the lockdown campaign....

.....I mean what are the chances !


----------



## marinyork (8 May 2020)

McWobble said:


> It looks like antibody testing is of limited use.
> 
> IgM is only detectable 7 days after symptoms develop. For IgG, this is 10 days. Antibody testing will thus miss presymptomatic cases and those in the early stages of the disease - which is probably also when they're at their most infectious. These are the people you most need to track down and isolate. Additionally, people still shed virus even after symptoms subside, so IgM / IgG is not a reliable marker of when someone is no longer infectious.
> 
> At the moment, the only test we have that will serve both purposes is PCR, for all its dismal false negative rate. We need a more reliable, easier and quicker test than PCR, especially for contact tracing. Sadly, I don't think that antibody testing will pass muster: the adaptive immune system just takes too long to make the immunoglobin. Do you know of anything on the horizon?



Antibody tests as said for the nth time is trivially is currently being used to work out who has had the virus and how immunity varies from person to person.
I'm not sure how anyone can be any clearer than that.

Antibody tests is not of limited use in the sense that no strategy is much good on its own and all the others are of limited use. Knowing a more accurate percentage of of the population who've had the virus is useful. Knowing locally is useful as it seems to vary quite a lot on a intraccity/region level. Knowing how antibody levels change is going to be useful going towards winter. Germany is taking this very seriously. We've already got to the point that because PCR was in low numbers in March/April that there are many (a tiny UK population %) who've had the virus and for them it'll just keep on showing negative on PCR. In terms of shielders, what people now seem to be calling the carers - unpaid or not - shielding the people who are clinically vulnerable, antibody tests are another tool there.

There are noises of a few things on the horizon to make logistically running PCR better. We'll have to see.


----------



## tom73 (8 May 2020)

It's hard to remember that in all this we still have many young people locked up in YOI's 
Which are mostly 15-18 year olds though some are younger all male as we no longer lock up females. 
I'm hearing from colleagues an increasing concern about the current situation within them. 

Like adult prisons the only solution the government has come up with is just lock them up. 
Being locked in for minimum 23 hours a day. Some are only getting out for 40 mins one site it's 3 hours 
Staff are being proactive and going what they can but it's just so patchy as no-one has come up with national guidelines or advice. 
Most social eating has stopped so food is delivered to each cell. Some are having to wait up to 16 hours between evening meal and breakfast. 

One big area of concern is most basic mental health services are limited and all intensive support has been withdrawn. Violence is down and levels of self harm are best described as stable though longer this go's it can only go one way. Though health care is still in place and GP access is still possible but with limited face to face contact. Covid cases are low and measures are in place to deal with outbreaks. Communal cleaning is happening and on the whole is ok. Children have access to cleaning materials for their cells and themselves. 

No national measures are in place to provide education which the government say's all vulnerable children should continue to have. 
In cell work books are being used in some and some are doing social learning like cookery other stuff is coming as staff at some sites have found ways to do it safely but no universal provision is in place.

Another concern is contact with family visits have stopped. Children have been given extra phone credits. Some sites it's as little as £5 a week. Only one has video calling in place which was supposed to be in place at all sites weeks ago. Most have poor relationships with family as it is. Family relationships is a key factor in reoffending add in the already fragile mental health of most of them. We are building up a big problem not just now but into adult life maybe a whole life time. CAMHS, YOT's and other support services are going to need a heck of a lot of investment and in placers a total rethink. 

One big up side is new admissions are way down with much better interventions within the community are being used. Something which many of us have been fighting for years.


----------



## mjr (8 May 2020)

stowie said:


> It is collapsing the resolve of people and sending out such dangerous messages. If it will be alright to sunbathe and chill outside on Monday why not during the lovely bank holiday weekend? After all, it is only a couple of days early. I expect this weekend will see widespread flouting of current restrictions.


Why is discussing unlocking being left to the tabloids who love leaks and scandal? One day speculation, next the leak, then speculation about the leaker, then more about how the leaked plan might change, then a couple of days either condemning or defending people following the leaked restrictions instead of the current ones - it's a week of front pages!

I refuse to believe our national character somehow makes us weaker to discuss derestricting than other countries. We need clear messages backed up by consensus-building. The government's strategy seems to be falling apart.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (8 May 2020)

The printed media is one of the last bastions of influence without responsibility. If I used the sort of language they used in internal work communications I would expect to be facing a reprimand or even the sack. The newspapers are allowed to encourage breaking the lockdown without facing the consequences.

The good news is that the influence of the press barons is waning. Unfortunately other forces are spreading fake news on the internet and allowing people to evade the consequences of their actions.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 May 2020)

It turns out that I misheard: they were actually saying they were furloughing the science....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-fury-over-attempt-to-censor-covid-19-advice


----------



## marinyork (8 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It turns out that I misheard: they were actually saying they were furloughing the science....
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-fury-over-attempt-to-censor-covid-19-advice



Interesting



> In the version published on Sage’s government website, almost a page and a half of text was heavily redacted. The Guardian understands the blocked text related to SPI–B’s criticism about possible government proposals around that time.
> 
> These included the idea of reducing the amount of time Britons could spend exercising or shopping, and stricter financial penalties for those found to be breaking the lockdown. A third proposal involved requiring people to self-validate their movements, as was occurring in France, where citizens were required to complete permits before leaving home.
> 
> Experts on SPI-B, which includes professors in psychology, epidemiology and anthropology, said they felt the proposals were too punitive and more likely to result in unfair treatment among people in deprived economic circumstances.


----------



## marinyork (8 May 2020)

Wales allows exercise more than once a day, with some libraries, gardening centres and recycling centres to re-open.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52584690

Note that this article is likely to change with more details added by the time others respond.


----------



## marinyork (8 May 2020)

ONS thinks 20,000 people are getting infected per day with between 130,000 and 396,000 currently having the virus. This is higher than a previous estimate given.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/uk-coronavirus-cases-400000-experts-a4435631.html

Preliminary results. Apparently not published yet, but widely referred to. For those antibody sceptics, the first tranche also apparently/hopefully includes an antibody test that's been sent off to labs so this might be the first time a vaguely true number of how many people have had the virus in the UK is come up with (it's generally believed 10% or more of London's had it - it's likely to be a lot lower in some other areas).


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 May 2020)

Be careful if you have a garden

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2...alised-gardening-injury-tears-buttock-muscles


----------



## glasgowcyclist (8 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Be careful if you have a garden
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/music/2...alised-gardening-injury-tears-buttock-muscles



🎶 I want to rake free...🎶


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (8 May 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> 🎶 I want to rake free...🎶



Easy come, easy go, will you let me mow?
Bismillah! No, we will not let you mow. (Let him mow!)


----------



## tom73 (8 May 2020)

More people look to be about today meeting up and stuff. 
Someone round the corner just letting in some guests and she works in a care home too 
what ever changers may come I think some of the damage has already been done.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 May 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> 🎶 I want to rake free...🎶



Beelzebuttock has a devil set aside for me..


----------



## bitsandbobs (8 May 2020)

McWobble said:


> It looks like antibody testing is of limited use.
> 
> IgM is only detectable 7 days after symptoms develop. For IgG, this is 10 days. Antibody testing will thus miss presymptomatic cases and those in the early stages of the disease - which is probably also when they're at their most infectious. These are the people you most need to track down and isolate. Additionally, people still shed virus even after symptoms subside, so IgM / IgG is not a reliable marker of when someone is no longer infectious.
> 
> At the moment, the only test we have that will serve both purposes is PCR, for all its dismal false negative rate. We need a more reliable, easier and quicker test than PCR, especially for contact tracing. Sadly, I don't think that antibody testing will pass muster: the adaptive immune system just takes too long to make the immunoglobin. Do you know of anything on the horizon?



As has already been pointed out, antibody tests are not intended as a frontline diagnostic. PCR is used for that. 

There is another potential diagnostic approach - antigen testing - where viral surface proteins are detected instead of viral nucleic acids (which is what PCR does). In theory, it should be possible to test more people using antigen testing than PCR as it is very fast and less reliant on access to a lab. 

Unfortunately, there are a number of challenges in getting antigen testing to work for a respiratory disease such as SARS-CoV-2, so there may not be an antigen test any time soon.

Having said that, there are some companies that claim they have one - for example, E25Bio in the US.


----------



## Rusty Nails (8 May 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> Easy come, easy go, will you let me mow?
> Bismillah! No, we will not let you mow. (Let him mow!)



"_Now he can't ride his bicycle"_

Sorry, probably needs a thread in the cafe.


----------



## tom73 (8 May 2020)

RAC report higher vehicle use and not all for work. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52581213


----------



## pawl (8 May 2020)

More traffic about this morning not excessively so .


----------



## Tanis8472 (8 May 2020)

https://amp.theguardian.com/politic...in-hiding-raab-takes-cover-behind-the-science

Why does this not surprise me!


----------



## SpokeyDokey (8 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> https://amp.theguardian.com/politic...in-hiding-raab-takes-cover-behind-the-science
> 
> Why does this not surprise me!



More like a quote from a 6th Form Rag than a supposed quality newspaper.


----------



## tom73 (8 May 2020)

Our summer African feathered friends have arrived today. A reminder of what ever mess we make of things nature go's on.
With current situation remind me do we go into quarantine or them or maybe both


----------



## mjr (8 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> More like a quote from a 6th Form Rag than a supposed quality newspaper.


Sketch columns are often like that, in any newspaper, aren't they? And the government is being childish, so it's sort of fitting.


----------



## Tanis8472 (9 May 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1253474772702429189


----------



## tom73 (9 May 2020)

The known number of health and social workers that have sadly died now stands at 203. 
If somebody ran a mock in a hospital and killed over 200 members of staff. We'd have every part of the government coming out the woodwork finding solutions to keep staff safe. But yet when we have a disease that kills and we know how to protect staff from it. 
The same government just shrugs it's shoulders and blames everyone and everything.
This shouldn't be happening a life is not disposable PPE is.


----------



## randynewmanscat (9 May 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> Easy come, easy go, will you let me mow?
> Bismillah! No, we will not let you mow. (Let him mow!)


Which was sang by a chorus of hedgehogs who then went on to savagely attack Mr May.


----------



## Beebo (9 May 2020)

The daily briefing is going heavy on cycling investment and e scooters.


----------



## tom73 (9 May 2020)

Beebo said:


> The daily briefing is going heavy on cycling investment and e scooters.



Just catching up on this a lot more positive tone than before. Wonder if the penny is starting to drop ? Time will tell but it's more positive than it has been.


----------



## MountainSide (9 May 2020)

Beebo said:


> The daily briefing is going heavy on cycling investment and e scooters.



I have to despair. He said social distancing mean that only 1 in 10 will be able to use public transport so the "solution" is to throw 2 billion pounds at promoting cycling and e-scooters complete with pop-up bike lanes. Country run by idiots IMO.


----------



## All uphill (9 May 2020)

MountainSide said:


> I have to despair. He said social distancing mean that only 1 in 10 will be able to use public transport so the "solution" is to throw 2 billion pounds at promoting cycling and e-scooters complete with pop-up bike lanes. Country run by idiots IMO.


Care to expand on why that is an idiotic approach?


----------



## Slick (9 May 2020)

Beebo said:


> The daily briefing is going heavy on cycling investment and e scooters.


Trying not to cast an envious eye from north of the border.


----------



## alicat (9 May 2020)

MountainSide said:


> I have to despair. He said social distancing mean that only 1 in 10 will be able to use public transport so the "solution" is to throw 2 billion pounds at promoting cycling and e-scooters complete with pop-up bike lanes. Country run by idiots IMO.


I disagree. Anything that makes cycling a normal, safe activity that is to be encouraged has to be good as far as I am concerned. Bring it on.


----------



## tom73 (9 May 2020)

He's not doing bad with the few questions that had an air of anti cycle spin. He looks to have down a bit of home work.


----------



## Slick (9 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> He's not doing bad with the few questions that had an air of anti cycle spin. He looks to have down a bit of home work.


I think he spoke well and handled the boy questioning the average 9 mile commute with relative ease. Well jealous here.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (9 May 2020)

It won't cure car-owner virus but it will help relieve public transport pain. There will be big problems taking space away from public roads for pedestrian and cycling use at the same time as PT capacity is down to 10% of what it was. Gridlock will happen and unless strict engine-off when stationary legislation is introduced and enforced, air quality will deteriorate.


----------



## Buck (9 May 2020)

There’s a national petition to scrap tuition fees this year for nurses/paramedics and midwives. 

https://www.change.org/p/government...ed_by_id=9d14f2a0-9084-11ea-aef8-f56739770e12


----------



## randynewmanscat (9 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I dreamt last night that Nigel Farage had organised a lift the lockdown campaign....
> 
> .....I mean what are the chances !


The horror.


----------



## mjr (9 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> unless strict engine-off when stationary legislation is introduced and enforced,


I thought it was introduced long ago (1980s Construction and Use Regulations) and it's only enforcement that is lacking because waah waah we can't expect the old men in limos that run local government to sit in cars without air con running all the time. It'll literally decimate council leaderships with them dissolving.

Edit: I was wrong about which law and the current fines are a joke but it is in there: https://www.confused.com/on-the-road/driving-law/fines-for-idling


----------



## mjr (9 May 2020)

alicat said:


> I disagree. Anything that makes cycling a normal, safe activity that is to be encouraged has to be good as far as I am concerned. Bring it on.


It's certainly a step on from basically making adverts shouting at people to cycle while doing nothing to stop building obstacle course roads.

Is the £2bn being spread over the country with requirements to spend it sensibly, or is it yet another sort of competition bidding thing which means idiots like Lancashire County Council's leader can ignore it and his residents get to suffer? https://road.cc/content/news/tory-council-leader-calls-safe-cycling-space-childish-273275


----------



## kingrollo (9 May 2020)

The Ice-cream just been down our road FFs!!!!


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> The horror.



Lockexit?


----------



## randynewmanscat (9 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Lockexit?


Worse, I think it needs more syllables to describe the true horror.


----------



## randynewmanscat (9 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> The Ice-cream just been down our road FFs!!!!


Did he have a chime going and if so which tune was it?


----------



## mjr (9 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Did he have a chime going and if so which tune was it?


Ring a Ring o' Roses, one hopes.

Food delivery businesses are allowed to continue operating.


----------



## Tanis8472 (9 May 2020)

mjr said:


> I thought it was introduced long ago (1980s Construction and Use Regulations) and it's only enforcement that is lacking because waah waah we can't expect the old men in limos that run local government to sit in cars without air con running all the time. It'll literally decimate council leaderships with them dissolving.
> 
> Edit: I was wrong about which law and the current fines are a joke but it is in there: https://www.confused.com/on-the-road/driving-law/fines-for-idling



Afaik, that only applies to parked cars, not cars in traffic.


----------



## Tanis8472 (9 May 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/fastcarspete/status/1259050338096644096


----------



## MarkF (9 May 2020)

MD in Private Eye talks a lot of sense, we've over reacted and non reacted in other ways.

Whilst all this clapping and back slapping is going on, many NHS staff are actually doing FA apart from clapping themselves on a Thursday evening. Nurses, porters, health cares assistants etc should have been deployed to care homes, right now it has huge labour capacity that could provide a bit of help and professionalism to those poor frontline bods on the minimum wage.


----------



## MarkF (9 May 2020)

Buck said:


> There’s a national petition to scrap tuition fees this year for nurses/paramedics and midwives.
> 
> https://www.change.org/p/government...ed_by_id=9d14f2a0-9084-11ea-aef8-f56739770e12



They sign up for good working conditions, 6-8 weeks paid holidays, a guaraneed income and gold plated pensions that are a dream for most private sector workers. Tough times but not every day is sunny when you enjoy such advantages.


----------



## tom73 (9 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> The Ice-cream just been down our road FFs!!!!


We’ve had one coming around of and on for weeks. I Checked with the council got told by the head of environmental health they are allowed. Classed as takeaways if People are not social distancing as they wait that’s a matter for the police. A bit of a joke really


----------



## tom73 (9 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/fastcarspete/status/1259050338096644096




Difference is ones talented


----------



## midlife (9 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> MD in Private Eye talks a lot of sense, we've over reacted and non reacted in other ways.
> 
> Whilst all this clapping and back slapping is going on, many NHS staff are actually doing FA apart from clapping themselves on a Thursday evening. Nurses, porters, health cares assistants etc should have been deployed to care homes, right now it has huge labour capacity that could provide a bit of help and professionalism to those poor frontline bods on the minimum wage.



Yep, I agree. Most NHS staff (me included) volunteered to be placed on a redeployment register. We take the King's shilling and we expected to be on wards and nightingale hospitals and what was called "the wider NHS"


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (9 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> They sign up for good working conditions, 6-8 weeks paid holidays, a guaraneed income and gold plated pensions that are a dream for most private sector workers. Tough times but not every day is sunny when you enjoy such advantages.


I'd get an application form if it's so great. Unless you're talking about politicians.


----------



## mjr (9 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Afaik, that only applies to parked cars, not cars in traffic.


No, it's any stationary vehicle except "owing to the necessities of traffic", vehicles being examined and vehicles with gas plant. So it seems it would need a minor amendment to require switching off in gridlock.

Oh and I was right about which law. The bit of RTA cited by confused just gives legal force to the Construction and Use Regs


----------



## mjr (9 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> Nurses, porters, health cares assistants etc should have been deployed to care homes, right now it has huge labour capacity that could provide a bit of help and professionalism to those poor frontline bods on the minimum wage.


Why haven't we sent the army in to struggling care homes, like other countries?

And why isn't the testing being rolled out through larger pharmacies, who already do other testing? None of this sixty mile journey to a test car park nonsense.


----------



## MarkF (9 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'd get an application form if it's so great. Unless you're talking about politicians.



Times change, my aunt was a nurse my mother a teacher, respectable and maybe aspirational positions then. Kids nowadays have so many more opportunities, my two youngast are doing things I'd never even heard of when I was 25. Marine biologist! Nursing is not the attractive propostion it once was.

I work in the NHS, I know what nurses do, monthly take home pay has to be considered along with the career package, conditions, holidays, pensions and progressment opportunities. Considerng everything, I think they do ok, but everybody wants more money.........


----------



## tom73 (9 May 2020)

Now 15 million goggles from the 2009 stock pile that’s been sent out don’t meet standards. 
In total we've got 26 million of them all pointless no one tested them at the time.
They came in boxers with ce mark on but never past the test.
For once this is not down to Boris.
I hope the posh new ones Mrs 73 just issued with are not these


----------



## marinyork (9 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> Times change, my aunt was a nurse my mother a teacher, respectable and maybe aspirational positions then. Kids nowadays have so many more opportunities, my two youngast are doing things I'd never even heard of when I was 25. Marine biologist! Nursing is not the attractive propostion it once was.



Marine biologists have been in the media for decades. James Bond posed as a marine biologist in The Spy Who Loved Me in 1977.


----------



## randynewmanscat (9 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Ring a Ring o' Roses, one hopes.
> 
> Food delivery businesses are allowed to continue operating.


If it passes through the cakehole and can be chewed on or mauled by your tongue and later swallowed it is food. Only in my dreams does an ice cream van pass my place.


----------



## MarkF (9 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Marine biologists have been in the media for decades. James Bond posed as a marine biologist in The Spy Who Loved Me in 1977.


 Great, it was more of a inkling of what nothern provinicial teenagers want, nursing doesn't fire them up today.


----------



## MarkF (9 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Why haven't we sent the army in to struggling care homes, like other countries?



I don't know. I posted way back my fears were for care home residents. Tbh, I've seen no change on those going to die, care home (alzheimer sufferers) on their way out and v.obese patients, who've not been out of a bed for years, who are now +confirmed and on their way quicker.

Could I suggest that this is a relief for their relatives?


----------



## slowmotion (9 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> I don't know. I posted way back my fears were for care home residents. Tbh, I've seen no change on those going to die, care home (alzheimer sufferers) on their way out and v.obese patients, who've not been out of a bed for years, who are now +confirmed and on their way quicker.
> 
> Could I suggest that this is a relief for their relatives?


Never mind what the relatives think. I have been with three very elderly relatives in the last three years, some in care homes, some not. All three were quite happy to die. I got the impression that they thought being alive was some kind of prison.


----------



## lane (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> We’ve had one coming around of and on for weeks. I Checked with the council got told by the head of environmental health they are allowed. Classed as takeaways if People are not social distancing as they wait that’s a matter for the police. A bit of a joke really



It was announced on local Facebook. Ice cream van coming to village. Order in advance and payment in advance by PayPal. Fair enough I guess.


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

lane said:


> It was announced on local Facebook. Ice cream van coming to village. Order in advance and payment in advance by PayPal. Fair enough I guess.



Local made ice cream in tubs delivered to you door maybe. As the dairy industry needs all the help it can get right now. If it's done safely then ok. But queuing up for a 99 just in time to sit down and hear the daily death figure announced is quite another. The more we normalise things the more people start to think it's all over and carry on. We are no way near that point. Environmental health officers at the moment have more than enough to do than check if "Mr Whippy" is up to date with the cleaning.


----------



## oldwheels (10 May 2020)

Buck said:


> There’s a national petition to scrap tuition fees this year for nurses/paramedics and midwives.
> 
> https://www.change.org/p/government...ed_by_id=9d14f2a0-9084-11ea-aef8-f56739770e12


Don’t know about paramedics but in Scotland nurses have not paid fees for some time now so I presume by “ national” you mean England.


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

So Boris is expected to announce this evening the abolition of the incomplete, misleading and divisive "stay at home" message and its replacement with the almost-meaningless "stay alert" one. Because, you know, we need more lerts.

What the fark is wrong with the "stay home when you can, keep your distance, wash your hands" message used elsewhere?


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

50'000 UK tests sent to US labs for analysis https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/n...es-to-us-after-problems-in-lab-network/10/05/


----------



## Tenacious Sloth (10 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Why haven't we sent the army in to struggling care homes, like other countries?


Unlike the NHS staff, most army personnel aren’t trained for this kind of thing. They may as well give you and me a mask and gloves, a day’s training, and send us in.


----------



## Julia9054 (10 May 2020)

Tenacious Sloth said:


> Unlike the NHS staff, most army personnel aren’t trained for this kind of thing. They may as well give you and me a mask and gloves, a day’s training, and send us in.


Often care home staff don't get much more than that tbh.


----------



## pawl (10 May 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Don’t know about paramedics but in Scotland nurses have not paid fees for some time now so I presume by “ national” you mean England.



I did my RMN training back in1984 No tuition fee and was paid a salary We had a book allowance and provided with two made to measure suits.i was married and no way could’ve afforded the burden of tuition fees

Registered training is now a degree course About half of my course were like me mature students


----------



## marinyork (10 May 2020)

40% are using the app on the Isle of Wight - sky news from the community secretary.

Higher than Singapore. Lower than what is needed.


----------



## marinyork (10 May 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/only-50-of-britons-would-download-nhs-tracing-app-poll

52% of people tell an opinium poll they would download the NHS app. Higher than 40% on the isle of weight and much higher than 17% in singapore. Not that far off 60% needed.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (10 May 2020)

If tonight Boris lets non essential shops reopen, we are goosed.
Social distancing will go to pots.
Don't know if Nicola Sturgeon has the powers to go above Boris, folks will not listen anyway, they are hardly listening now.
Anyhow, we must go back to work eventually, the only thing is hoping we don't catch the virus, if we do, let's not die from it!
About the cycling, I think here in Glasgow, if public transport stays reduced, people will just take to their cars more.
There will also be an increase in cycle commuting, friction on the roads, more cyclist injured, more walkers annoyed at cyclist on shared paths.
Give it to until the schools reopen, then all will go back to how it was pre- corona.
Until there is a vaccine, there will be a steady daily number dying in the background, nobody caring unless they suffer a personal loss.


----------



## Slick (10 May 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> If tonight Boris lets non essential shops reopen, we are goosed.
> Social distancing will go to pots.
> Don't know if Nicola Sturgeon has the powers to go above Boris, folks will not listen anyway, they are hardly listening now.
> Anyhow, we must go back to work eventually, the only thing is hoping we don't catch the virus, if we do, let's not die from it!
> ...


That's a pretty bleak picture you have painted there Pat, I can only hope you are wrong. I do know Nicola has already stated she will decide how we come out of lockdown, thankfully as we are some weeks behind the likes of London in the curve apparently which would have helped us as we went in to it together which again I assume means we were effectively earlier in the curve. 

I take it lots of people near you are already ignoring the rules?


----------



## marinyork (10 May 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> If tonight Boris lets non essential shops reopen, we are goosed.
> Social distancing will go to pots.
> Don't know if Nicola Sturgeon has the powers to go above Boris, folks will not listen anyway, they are hardly listening now.
> Anyhow, we must go back to work eventually, the only thing is hoping we don't catch the virus, if we do, let's not die from it!
> ...



I hear what you're saying in Glasgow. In London in Hackney the papers went big on hundreds of large groups having pizza, beer and wine. I've been going to the same park every day around heading home time and there are more and more groups of 4-5 people. Yesterday next door there was a birthday and at least ten households turned up, although most were sensible to sit in the front/back garden or talk at the gate. I go to the same park every day and day by day at heading home time there are more groups of 4-5 people sunbathing/meeting than there were a couple of weeks ago.

It's interesting in places like south korea. So a super spread called patient 31 in Daegu spread it widely around her church in South Korea. So Seuol has closed bars and pubs again https://news.yahoo.com/seoul-closes-bars-clubs-over-fears-second-virus-015054584.html after a new cluster from a superspreader - some saying 30, some 50 cases linked and been around 3 nightclubs or 5 bars and nightclubs the other saturday night depending on which version you read.


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

It's come to something if even private eye is happy to join the government spin.
That only bit's of the NHS are worth any support or funding. We have no magic "front-line" or army of HCP's sat at home on full pay waiting for things to go "back to normal". Neither is a hospital the only part of the health service most care happens in the community. In the bit that no one one talks about "Primary care". Which is carrying on as it has been going in far it's doing even more than before. Any "spare" staff are really better off as is happening. Helping maintain , set up and expand "hospital at home" services to keep people who need the next step up in care out of hospital and away from the GP. it's a whole lot cheeper , more effective and is long over due. Then if we have a few left over they'd be better helping out with at home palliative care services. 

We can't send in NHS staff into care homes on mass. We don't have any "NHS" staff. NHS Staff are not employed via one NHS but each trust and staff have been redeployed within them. Sending nurses for example into a care home we'd effectively turn them into all into nursing homes. Registied HCP's have to act as such so can't be expected to work in areas that put that registration at risk. Care homes are not set up the same, the management is totally different , they have different care standards. We'd have none registered staff working under the direct control / accountability of registered staff. With no idea what level of training they've had or if the care plan in place even meets the basics. We'd end up with totally unregulated set of homes which would be a legal and ethical nightmare.

Homes come under LA remit so maybe use them but the only trained staff they have which use the "NHS" brand are employed in a public health role mostly nurses and health visitors. But then who's going to do all this "track and trace" or carry on working with some of the most in need families we have or dealing with other the infectious diseases that have not gone away. Since Public health moved to LA control it's a total mess redeployments will make it even worse.

The current care home issue is not mostly about lack of staff but as with everything else it's lack of planning at all levels. 
Many care home are fine they planned for this and it looks to be working. Care sector need's help and fast but sending in an "army" of NHS Staff may sound great but it's not a quick fix as with most things to do with health. You need to dig a lot deeper to really fix things. 

Oh and let's move away from the idea that everyone in a care home is 90 and just sat in the chair knitting waiting for a call from the Grim Reaper. Many people in care homes are a lot younger than you think many with a brain that is fully working but with bodies that don't. 
Or need full time help to have an active life day to day like group homes do. Equally many patients in a hospice are not day's away from death either.


----------



## Unkraut (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> The current care home issue is not mostly about lack of staff but as with everything else it's lack of planning at all levels.


You mean there are too many managers who don't actually know how to manage. They like the title and the authority, but when a crisis comes don't have the savvy to deal with it, and blunder around trying to cope with things they ought to have foreseen and planned for. This malaise comes from the top down.


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Unkraut said:


> You mean there are too many managers who don't actually know how to manage. They like the title and the authority, but when a crisis comes don't have the savvy to deal with it, and blunder around trying to cope with things they ought to have foreseen and planned for. This malaise comes from the top down.


Either that or many being owned by off shore edge funds or other companies just in it for the money.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (10 May 2020)

Slick said:


> I take it lots of people near you are already ignoring the rules?


There has been a very loose interpretation of lockdown here in Glasgow, since the beginning.
Remember, I had to attend hospital daily for 3 weeks at the beginning of lock down.
The hospital is 8 miles in the opposite direction of where I live, so I could clearly see how people were behaving.
If one followed the government rules as they were given, one would have a different idea of what is going on "outside", because, obviously, one is shielded.
All I can say is, let's hope for the best.
A bit like road commuting in rush hour


----------



## Slick (10 May 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> There has been a very loose interpretation of lockdown here in Glasgow, since the beginning.
> Remember, I had to attend hospital daily for 3 weeks at the beginning of lock down.
> The hospital is 8 miles in the opposite direction of where I live, so I could clearly see how people were behaving.
> If one followed the government rules as they were given, one would have a different idea of what is going on "outside", because, obviously, one is shielded.
> ...


I must admit, I remember when someone posted about the que round the block when B&Q opened and I thought that at least it wasn't happening here until I saw the length of the que round my local store the next day on the news.  Because I was following the rules, I wasn't seeing it. I do think when they do finally lift the lockdown, or ease it, we will need to be most careful.


----------



## Rickshaw Phil (10 May 2020)

I see that the latest slogan from the government is getting mercilessly ragged on twitter.

I quite liked this take on it.




As many have pointed out over there, Stay Apart would be a better message than Stay Alert.


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

This is a public info film on social distancing not from this county. 
But the 1st part shows what's about to happen when we get allowed to believe it's all gone away. 

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ2NMD3VWio


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> 40% are using the app on the Isle of Wight - sky news from the community secretary.
> 
> Higher than Singapore. Lower than what is needed.


He said downloaded on the BBC, which does not mean using, but it's still disappointingly high.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (10 May 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> If tonight Boris lets non essential shops reopen, we are goosed.
> Social distancing will go to pots.
> *Don't know if Nicola Sturgeon has the powers to go above Boris, folks will not listen anyway, they are hardly listening now.*
> Anyhow, we must go back to work eventually, the only thing is hoping we don't catch the virus, if we do, let's not die from it!
> ...



Been saying from Day One that multiple "governments" in one country doesn't work in a crisis like this. Leadership is needed and it needs backed with a big stick used liberally. We've got the unfortunate situation of very poor leadership from London and a powerless leader in Edinburgh.

If Thatcher were in charge we'd see a proper lockdown


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Been saying from Day One that multiple "governments" in one country doesn't work in a crisis like this. Leadership is needed and it needs backed with a big stick used liberally. We've got the unfortunate situation of very poor leadership from London and a powerless leader in Edinburgh.
> 
> If Thatcher were in charge we'd see a proper lockdown


Health is a national matter, so only Sturgeon matters there, luckily for Scotland.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Been saying from Day One that multiple "governments" in one country doesn't work in a crisis like this. Leadership is needed and it needs backed with a big stick used liberally. We've got the unfortunate situation of very poor leadership from London and a powerless leader in Edinburgh.
> 
> If Thatcher were in charge we'd see a proper lockdown


It might have helped if Johnson had bothered letting Sturgeon know about this new Lert business. She's said she learnt about it in the press. Lerts get talking!


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

So after all this talk of a caution when lifting the lockdown, if you believe what you read it's back to work apart from bars, restaurants, cinemas ....
.....oh and it appears we can now see the virus as the new slogan is "Stay Alert"....


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

Knob eating contest goes digital

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52601754?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5eb7b6ed6b7a9b06537a659e&Dorset knob-eating contest goes digital&2020-05-10T08:26:11.978Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:598f5f97-67c6-47ba-8aeb-b5ca2066ec85&pinned_post_asset_id=5eb7b6ed6b7a9b06537a659e&pinned_post_type=share


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Stay Alert from what ? 
That big bag with covid wrote on it that someone who looked a bit suspicious has left in street that's now ticking ? 
Or Maybe we are all about to get a big ray gun that turns covid bright green ?


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

Why not just wait for the official message at 7pm rather than reading (and even believing) the rubbish in the media?


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Why not just wait for the official message at 7pm rather than reading (and even believing) the rubbish in the media?


Stay Alert is official


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Stay Alert is official



Must have missed that announcement. Clearly not alert enough.


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Stay Alert is official


Is it? Hasn’t it been explained to some degree and will no doubt be further clarified later.
You seem to believe that almost everything will be back to normal as of tomorrow. It won’t for sure.
why not just ignore the unfounded speculation in the press?


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Sadly it's true 

View: https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1259440331763978240?s=21


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## vickster (10 May 2020)

It’s one word, the primary messages are still unchanged (in what you have posted)


----------



## RoadRider400 (10 May 2020)

Cannot claim credit because I found it on another forum. I agree with the message however.


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Is it? Hasn’t it been explained to some degree and will no doubt be further clarified later.
> You seem to believe that almost everything will be back to normal as of tomorrow. It won’t for sure.


Stay Alert officially the new slogan. Ministers have been on TV defending it - everybody else has been slating it.

Given this is the CV thread - I don't see why there should be an embargo on discussion until 7pm.


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Stay Alert officially the new slogan. Ministers have been on TV defending it - everybody else has been slating it.
> 
> Given this is the CV thread - I don't see why there should be an embargo on discussion until 7pm.


Read the rest of it, it’s a slogan nothing more


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> It’s one word, the primary messages are still unchanged (in what you have posted)


But the debate is that Stay Alert sends a very different message to stay home. (You don't have to agree , and can wait until 7pm if you wish but that's what people are discussing)


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> But the debate is that Stay Alert sends a very different message to stay home. (You don't have to agree ,* and can wait until 7pm if you wish *but that's what people are discussing)


I shall, cheers. 
I’m not one for pessimism, sensationalism or speculation I’m afraid 👍


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Read the rest of it, it’s a slogan nothing more
> View attachment 521307


All I said was the new slogan was "Stay Alert" - which it is.


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So after all this talk of a caution when lifting the lockdown, *if you believe what you read it's back to work apart from bars, restaurants, cinemas ....*
> .....oh and it appears we can now see the virus as the new slogan is "Stay Alert"....


And the rest of your post...? What official communication have you read?


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> I shall, cheers.
> I’m not one for pessimism, sensationalism or speculation I’m afraid 👍


So I guess I am - because I posted that the slogan has changed !


----------



## Rocky (10 May 2020)

I'm loving the way that MPs are taking to social media to clarify the meaning of 'Stay Alert'. If you have to explain it, you've already failed.


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> It’s one word, the primary messages are still unchanged (in what you have posted)


But that's the point it is the primary message. it's meaningless , pointless and won't work.


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> But that's the point it is the primary message. it's meaningless , pointless and won't work.


In your opinion (and that of the Twitterati)?
I personally don’t have a crystal ball


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (10 May 2020)

This'll sort out the queues at Tesco


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'm loving the way that MPs are taking to social media to clarify the meaning of 'Stay Alert'. If you have to explain it, you've already failed.



But that's just speculation we don't know what the new slogan will be till Borris tells us tonight. 
So who's got the popcorn and ice cream ready for movie night?


----------



## Rocky (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> But that's just speculation we don't know what the new slogan will be till Borris tells us tonight.
> So who's got the popcorn and ice cream ready for movie night?


I've already failed....I fell asleep in the chair, definitely not alert


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> And the rest of your post...? What official communication have you read?


The communities secretary:-

"Respecting others in the workplace and other settings you go to"


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> This'll sort out the queues at Tesco
> 
> View attachment 521310



Right I see now what be alert means if you get covid you have to wear high vis. 
Glad that's sorted now if only they'd have said so.


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> The communities secretary:-
> 
> "Respecting others in the workplace and other settings you go to"


That doesn’t mean all workplaces are going to reopen. After all plenty never closed. Ditto ‘other settings’


----------



## alicat (10 May 2020)

I don't like the sound of the message 'stay 2m apart where possible'. It will be much harder to insist that people stay 2m away.


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I've already failed....I fell asleep in the chair, definitely not alert



Hancock has thought about that one it turns out all HCP's will be issued with a cattle prod. 
FFP3 is so old school now following up to date info from sage


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> That doesn’t mean all workplaces are going to reopen. After all plenty never closed. Ditto ‘other settings’


Of course not. But imo there's a decent change were are going to move in that direction to some extent - and probably more than the noises that were being made earlier in the week.


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Of course not. But imo there's a decent change were are going to move in that direction to some extent - and probably more than the noises that were being made earlier in the week.


What noises? Made by whom? Government?
I only follow the BBC coverage, nothing else


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> What noises? Made by whom? Government?
> I only follow the BBC coverage, nothing else


Well I'm not going to Google it for you. But pretty sure the BBC news will have some government official saying "any changes to the lockdown will be minor" over the last 7 days or so.


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## glasgowcyclist (10 May 2020)

If there’s no change expected in the public’s behaviour, why the change of slogan and new graphic?
At least our FM in Scotland is sticking with the simple message, stay home.


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## vickster (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well I'm not going to Google it for you. But pretty sure the BBC news will have some government official saying "any changes to the lockdown will be minor" over the last 7 days or so.


Yes, minor...and? I interpret that as there will be small changes, which surely shouldn’t come as a surprise given that changes are also slowly being made everywhere else in the world as the peak has been passed?

That’s rather different to everyone going back to work surely, other than cinemas, theatres, pubs, cafes and restaurants?


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Yes, minor...and? I interpret that as there will be small changes, which surely shouldn’t come as a surprise given that changes are also slowly being made everywhere else in the world as the peak has been passed?
> 
> That’s rather different to everyone going back to work surely, other than cinemas, theatres, pubs, cafes and restaurants?


I think it will be closer to the latter part. Either by design or in practice.


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## vickster (10 May 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> If there’s no change expected in the public’s behaviour, why the change of slogan and new graphic?
> At least our FM in Scotland is sticking with the simple message, stay home.


Which from other threads around cyclechat from @Pat "5mph" for example, seems to be being loosely interpreted in some places in Scotland?


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## vickster (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think it will be closer to the latter part. Either by design or in practice.


In your opinion...
My large employer certainly has no plans to reopen the office next week...or at any time soon...and when they do it’ll be done with very strict social distancing.
Are you going back to yours?


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## tom73 (10 May 2020)

The Communities Secretary say one way we can stay alert is stay at home well that's clear then.


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## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> In your opinion...
> My large employer certainly has no plans to reopen the office next week...or at any time soon...and when they do it’ll be done with very strict social distancing.
> Are you going back to yours?


I d walk back on my hands. 
But as I am classroom based , and work in a hospital - I doubt I will be going back anytime soon - if at all TBH.


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## vickster (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I d walk back on my hands.
> But as I am classroom based , and work in a hospital - I doubt I will be going back anytime soon - if at all TBH.


So why do you think everyone is suddenly going to rush back to work?


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## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> The Communities Secretary say one way we can stay alert is stay at home well that's clear then.


Well TBF they do say most accidents happen in the home.


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## tom73 (10 May 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> If there’s no change expected in the public’s behaviour, why the change of slogan and new graphic?
> At least our FM in Scotland is sticking with the simple message, stay home.



New t-shirt sales they've had to find some use for the gowns from turkey.


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## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> So why do you think everyone is suddenly going to rush back to work?


Erm.....because they have dropped Stay Home ?

They can hardly have a slogan "stay home" if they want people to return to work.


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## Rocky (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Erm.....because they have dropped Stay Home ?
> 
> They can hardly have a slogan "stay home" if they want people to return to work.


Thank you baked potato


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## DCLane (10 May 2020)

The 'stay alert' bit I get slightly, although 'stay home' would have been better.

'Control the virus' is the bit I don't. How do you 'control' an inanimate, invisable, parasitic, non-living organism? *

* Answers on a postcard please from any parents of teenage boys


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## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Thank you baked potato


Maybe I'm not alert enough - that ones gone right over my head ?


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## glasgowcyclist (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Which from other threads around cyclechat from @Pat "5mph" for example, seems to be being loosely interpreted in some places in Scotland?



It’s being ignored by some but that’s folk being dicks, not the result of an unclear message.
The majority of the population is following the guidance.


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## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Thank you baked potato


The new slogan along with all the rest of it the song will take about as long it takes to bake one


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## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

DCLane said:


> The 'stay alert' bit I get slightly, although 'stay home' would have been better.
> 
> 'Control the virus' is the bit I don't. How do you 'control' an inanimate, invisable, parasitic, non-living organism?


You heard of death by PowerPoint ? 

Perhaps they hope the virus will die of "death by slogan"


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## tom73 (10 May 2020)

DCLane said:


> The 'stay alert' bit I get slightly, although 'stay home' would have been better.
> 
> 'Control the virus' is the bit I don't. How do you 'control' an inanimate, invisable, parasitic, non-living organism? *
> 
> * Answers on a postcard please from any parents of teenage boys


It's all down to how you use the force


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## Rocky (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Maybe I'm not alert enough - that ones gone right over my head ?


Sorry - it’s another trivial meaningless slogan (as sung by Matt Lucas)


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## mjr (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Why not just wait for the official message at 7pm rather than reading (and even believing) the rubbish in the media?


Because maybe if enough of us rip the piss out of this stupid slogan on social media now, Boris may change course before impaling the country on the iceberg of confusion at 7pm? I don't think they would have put the like of Minister Jenrick out to defend it this morning unless they were seriously considering it.


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## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Sorry - it’s another trivial meaningless slogan (as sung by Matt Lucas)


Difference is his won't kill people


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## mjr (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Read the rest of it, it’s a slogan nothing more
> View attachment 521307


Well, that's a confused clusterfark of communication, isn't it? Am I meant to remember the top slogan, the bottom slogan, the five little icon-bullet points, the warning banner across the middle or what?

A campaign team that relentlessly hammered one single not-entirely-truthful slogan through a referendum campaign is looking nervous, flip-floppy and out of its depth now it has power and a real life-or-death challenge. It's really annoying. I think even those of us that campaigned for the other side (and would have had mixed feelings about their other project stuffing up - happy to see them fail but sad to see our compatriots in economic difficulty) would really love Dom, Boris and co to get their shoot together now and communicate clearly, calmly and consistently again, rather than die on their bottoms quite so painfully (and lethally) for the country.


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## Rocky (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Perfectly clear instructions to me


What does limit contact mean? Time limit? Distance limit? Number of people limit? When it says other people, who are other people? People you don’t know? People who don’t live with you? I’m sorry but it is so ambiguous.


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## tom73 (10 May 2020)

This is all before we get to find out what this new virus level warning system is. 
5 levels green to red. I hope Boris has enough crayons left over. He's already used the Red, green and yellow oh and the blue not forgetting the black.


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## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> What does limit contact mean? Time limit? Distance limit? Number of people limit? When it says other people, who are other people? People you don’t know? People who don’t live with you? I’m sorry but it is so ambiguous.


That's why you have to stay alert so you can work it out. By which time you've ran out of time to do anything about it.... Simples


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## vickster (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> What does limit contact mean? Time limit? Distance limit? Number of people limit? When it says other people, who are other people? People you don’t know? People who don’t live with you? I’m sorry but it is so ambiguous.


I don’t think anything much is actually going to change, it is going to be gradual. I see it as the same message as before. This is a message, the details will presumably come out in the guidance following today’s address


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## dutchguylivingintheuk (10 May 2020)

mjr said:


> He said downloaded on the BBC, which does not mean using, but it's still disappointingly high.


Would be something to say for if it is an good app, you know with source codes public and things like that. And if it would actually work, not like it has the be unlocked in the Iphone version and is draining your battery.. but government and I.T. what could possibly go wrong?


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## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

dutchguylivingintheuk said:


> Would be something to say for if it is an good app, you know with source codes public and things like that. And if it would actually work, not like it has the be unlocked in the Iphone version and is draining your battery.. but government and I.T. what could possibly go wrong?



Source code is public. Published last week.


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## tom73 (10 May 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1259409186095607809


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## gavgav (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> It’s one word, the primary messages are still unchanged (in what you have posted)


But it’s unenforceable now. Too many words like “if possible” “where you can” “limit”. I’m glad I’m not in the police force and trying to get people to do what is safe, from tomorrow. It’s been hard enough for them, at times, with the previous message


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## alicat (10 May 2020)

gavgav said:


> But it’s unenforceable now. Too many words like “if possible” “where you can” “limit”. I’m glad I’m not in the police force and trying to get people to do what is safe, from tomorrow. It’s been hard enough for them, at times, with the previous message



Exactly. Thank you for putting it so succinctly, @gavgav. That new infographic tells that I can pretty much lead my life as normal. The only hard bit will be staying alert - which I don't really understand. Was Covid-19 just a bad dream then?


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## deptfordmarmoset (10 May 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> If there’s no change expected in the public’s behaviour, why the change of slogan and new graphic?


In the absence of new ideas, a new slogan....


----------



## Tanis8472 (10 May 2020)




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## vickster (10 May 2020)

gavgav said:


> But it’s unenforceable now. Too many words like “if possible” “where you can” “limit”. I’m glad I’m not in the police force and trying to get people to do what is safe, from tomorrow. It’s been hard enough for them, at times, with the previous message


Has the law been repealed? Police can still enforce if not surely. Do you really think that the ‘dicks’ referred to earlier (who appear to be far more likely to be young men according to reports) who have been ignoring the guidance are going to argue the semantics of messaging (that hasn’t been fully clarified or the guidance updated?)


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## deptfordmarmoset (10 May 2020)

I'm intrigued, I have to say. While the early news is so unpromising - a ''stay home'' brand made bland - there must be something else our great leader must have up his sleeve for 7pm. Or has he spent the last few days rereading his Churchill biography on the lookout for ways to channel that wartime spirit? Any hint of falling back on patriotism, or ''download the app and do your duty'' kind of nonsense and I'm going to be shouting ''Scoundrel!'' at the TV.


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## Johnno260 (10 May 2020)

I can’t see much changing over the next few weeks.

I will still social distance and work from home, I told my boss my workflow is actually up since working from home and will return to the office when I’m comfortable to.

Also people need to take heed from the 1918 pandemic, the 2nd wave was devastating. 

Only thing I wanted to try and get hold of is masks, my initial thoughts were good quality pollution ones but that’s not going to happen, most sites I trust are booked until August.

I know masks in general are better at stopping the user infecting others but that’s the point, if enough people used them it would be more effective.


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## alicat (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Has the law been repealed?



Not yet. I fear that the emergency regulations will be amended next week following this evening's broadcast to suit the new messaging. Whether my fear comes true or not, it is much harder for the police to persuade people to go home when the government is just telling people to be alert.


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## Pat "5mph" (10 May 2020)

alicat said:


> I don't like the sound of the message 'stay 2m apart where possible'. It will be much harder to insist that people stay 2m away.


Stay at home as much as possible is the same: who's deciding what is possible?



gavgav said:


> But it’s unenforceable now. Too many words like “if possible” “where you can” “limit”. I’m glad I’m not in the police force and trying to get people to do what is safe, from tomorrow. It’s been hard enough for them, at times, with the previous message


Well put @gavgav, unenforceable was the word I was looking for 

Imo, slowly non essential shops will be allowed to open again, all apart from the hospitality trade at first.
So, where do we stand with this pandemic?
Lots of people died, many more will die.
Financial and mental health stress for many.
The only thing we did better than Italy (not sure about France and Spain) is that our health service hasn't collapsed under the strain.
Maybe there's not much more we could have done.


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## matticus (10 May 2020)

In 2 hours we'll know with a lot more certainty (I asssume!).

If they get it right, I think lockdown-loosening is right at this time, given the current stats. I'm looking forward to it, but admit I'm at all convinced they WILL get the details right. Trying not to worry about what I can't control.


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## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Slogans don't come with a Statement. 


View: https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1259442270576787456?s=21


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## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Well, that's a confused clusterfark of communication, isn't it? Am I meant to remember the top slogan, the bottom slogan, the five little icon-bullet points, the warning banner across the middle or what?
> 
> A campaign team that relentlessly hammered one single not-entirely-truthful slogan through a referendum campaign is looking nervous, flip-floppy and out of its depth now it has power and a real life-or-death challenge. It's really annoying. I think even those of us that campaigned for the other side (and would have had mixed feelings about their other project stuffing up - happy to see them fail but sad to see our compatriots in economic difficulty) would really love Dom, Boris and co to get their shoot together now and communicate clearly, calmly and consistently again, rather than die on their bottoms quite so painfully (and lethally) for the country.


Ok Boris we've got 2 contenders for the general election campaign slogan:-

"If Possible get Brexit done " 

Or

"Get Brexit done"

What do you reckon Boris ??


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## pawl (10 May 2020)

Just heard on BBC news that Germany COVID 19 cases has risen since lockdown had been eased Didn’t get any details other than concerns a bought the numbers crowding into night clubs.


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## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

pawl said:


> Just heard on BBC news that Germany COVID 19 cases has risen since lockdown had been eased Didn’t get any details other than concerns a bought the numbers crowding into night clubs.


They obviously weren't alert enough.


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## mjr (10 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Source code is public. Published last week.


Undocumented, in the relatively recent/unstandardised/minority languages Kotlin (a Java derivative) and Swift (which they mislabelled as objective C), without the server software needed to make it work and of course missing the keys needed to use it with a nhsx server. It's only just better than the bare minimum publication - and I'm not sure if you can compare it to the apps on the app store to be sure it's the real deal when it's missing bits needed for the build? https://github.com/nhsx


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## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I can’t see much changing over the next few weeks.
> 
> I will still social distance and work from home, I told my boss my workflow is actually up since working from home and will return to the office when I’m comfortable to.
> 
> ...



Try these maybe uk based and 50% to NHS together https://justlush.co.uk


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## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Undocumented, in the relatively recent/unstandardised/minority languages Kotlin (a Java derivative) and Swift (which they mislabelled as objective C), without the server software needed to make it work and of course missing the keys needed to use it with a nhsx server. It's only just better than the bare minimum publication - and I'm not sure if you can compare it to the apps on the app store to be sure it's the real deal when it's missing bits needed for the build? https://github.com/nhsx



It is the preferred language for Android Apps and transpiles into Java anyway. If you understand Java or similar derived languages you’ll understand Kotlin. What programming languages are you trained in?


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## deptfordmarmoset (10 May 2020)

pawl said:


> Just heard on BBC news that Germany COVID 19 cases has risen since lockdown had been eased Didn’t get any details other than concerns a bought the numbers crowding into night clubs.


Yes, R is up to 1.1. A little backtracking is in order

Edit: It was misreported earlier: it's 1.2 (range of 0.9 to 1.3)


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## gavgav (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Has the law been repealed? Police can still enforce if not surely. Do you really think that the ‘dicks’ referred to earlier (who appear to be far more likely to be young men according to reports) who have been ignoring the guidance are going to argue the semantics of messaging (that hasn’t been fully clarified or the guidance updated?)



They aren't the ones i'm worried about, they would do what they want, regardless and have been doing. It's those that are 50/50 on going out, who I would imagine the majority of the time have abided by rules so far, but will now see themselves as having the freedom to go out whenever they want. How can police enforce something that has the words "majority of the time", "where possible", etc, in the message? I hope Boris clarifies things later, but i simply don't see how it is enforceble......


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## Johnno260 (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Try these maybe uk based and 50% to NHS together https://justlush.co.uk



Perfect just what I was looking for and they have children’s sizes as well.

Thanks again.


----------



## Archie_tect (10 May 2020)

Be a lert- apparently the UK needs them.


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Perfect just what I was looking for and they have children’s sizes as well.
> 
> Thanks again.


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> It is the preferred language for Android Apps and transpiles into Java anyway. you understand Java or similar derived languages you’ll understand Kotlin. What programming languages are you trained in?


Kotlin's been preferred Android language for only just a year, be fair!

I can write about a dozen or so languages easily (mainly Python lately, was using Perl mostly before that) and more with the reference manuals open, but I was never trained in Java (this dates me but it only appeared after I started uni, so we still learned mainly in Modula-2!), although I can usually read it, but Kotlin seems to assume a lot of things Java makes explicit and it looks like it has some stuff from Pascal in it too. Certainly, it's not close enough to Java for the usual IDE/editor navigation to work for me.

But even leaving aside the languages, the Android app has almost no documentation (the docs folder literally contains only three graphics files) and it's not possible to do a full build and test with what's been released so far, is it?


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## vickster (10 May 2020)

gavgav said:


> They aren't the ones i'm worried about, they would do what they want, regardless and have been doing. It's those that are 50/50 on going out, who I would imagine the majority of the time have abided by rules so far, but will now see themselves as having the freedom to go out whenever they want. How can police enforce something that has the words "majority of the time", "where possible", etc, in the message? I hope Boris clarifies things later, but i simply don't see how it is enforceble......


And what are all of these people going to be doing or where will they be going if everything is still shut, offices / workplaces are still closed, they are still furloughed, the guidance still says do not meet with others, the police are still keeping an eye on parks and the legislation is still in place?
I expect they’ll soon bore of B&Q and garden centres.
Cycling, walking, jogging more than once a day?


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Be a lert- apparently the UK needs them.


That's a TMN to both me and @marinyork I think.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Kotlin's been preferred Android language for only just a year, be fair!
> 
> I can write about a dozen or so languages easily (mainly Python lately, was using Perl mostly before that) and more with the reference manuals open, but I was never trained in Java (this dates me but it only appeared after I started uni, so we still learned mainly in Modula-2!), although I can usually read it, but Kotlin seems to assume a lot of things Java makes explicit and it looks like it has some stuff from Pascal in it too. Certainly, it's not close enough to Java for the usual IDE/editor navigation to work for me.
> 
> But even leaving aside the languages, the Android app has almost no documentation (the docs folder literally contains only three graphics files) and it's not possible to do a full build and test with what's been released so far, is it?



It is, you do server endpoint stubs for those bits. Standard practice in the testing cycle before full integration testing with any centralised software. More work than should be necessary but not that hard. Agree lack of technical documentation on how it is meant to work somewhat hinders it though.


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## mjr (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> And what are all of these people going to be doing or where will they be going if everything is still shut, offices / workplaces are still closed, they are still furloughed, the guidance still says do not meet with others, the police are still keeping an eye on parks and the legislation is still in place?
> I expect they’ll soon bore of B&Q and garden centres.
> Cycling, walking, jogging more than once a day?


Or just driving round and round and round, stopping in random country-lane gateways. I'm not sure what else but pre-unlock trips to the coast would explain this weekend's sudden increase in motor traffic here. I wonder if the police will get power to introduce roadblocks and controls if the travel restrictions are to be continued.


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## Johnno260 (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> And what are all of these people going to be doing or where will they be going if everything is still shut, offices / workplaces are still closed, they are still furloughed, the guidance still says do not meet with others, the police are still keeping an eye on parks and the legislation is still in place?
> I expect they’ll soon bore of B&Q and garden centres.
> Cycling, walking, jogging more than once a day?



Worry I have is police are up against it anyway.

Least they’re fast at responding the speeding muppets round this way.

I had some muppet pass me on a rural road yesterday I’m certain he was pushing 100mph, I would perma ban these tools if caught.


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## mjr (10 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> It is, you do server endpoint stubs for those bits. Standard practice in the testing cycle before full integration testing with any centralised software.


What standard contains that, please? And does it say what parameters each json response should contain? Because I'm pretty sure the app acts on at least some of them so it can't be just a dumb stub.



> More work than should be necessary but not that hard. Agree lack of technical documentation on how it is meant to work somewhat hinders it though.


At least we agree it's not a beacon of transparency!


----------



## Rusty Nails (10 May 2020)

The fuss around this new slogan reminds me of how Cadbury spent a fortune on designing a new logo and ended up with a slightly changed font.





I think this new slogan and the fact that it is being made by a speech on national TV rather than via parliament or the regular briefings says a lot about the vanity/self-importance of Johnson and the need to show he is back in charge.

Churchill he ain't.


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## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

mjr said:


> What standard contains that, please? And does it say what parameters each json response should contain? Because I'm pretty sure the app acts on at least some of them so it can't be just a dumb stub.
> 
> 
> At least we agree it's not a beacon of transparency!



Part of your standard unit testing of a client / server app of course! Stubs are never completely dumb but replicate a set of expected server responses for a limited set of test conditions. Pretty basic stuff. As for the exchange you’d have to examine the source code. Not perfect without automated test scripts. But if the PR is to be believed the app should be doing very little network traffic and pretty basic stuff at that. If it doing more than that , it’s already a red flag.

But there are other concerns as even the current trial in IOW is illegal. The ICO is particularly concerned about the lack of submission to them on privacy and security and authorised uses for the data, that the ICO need to approve


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## gavgav (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> And what are all of these people going to be doing or where will they be going if everything is still shut, offices / workplaces are still closed, they are still furloughed, the guidance still says do not meet with others, the police are still keeping an eye on parks and the legislation is still in place?
> I expect they’ll soon bore of B&Q and garden centres.
> Cycling, walking, jogging more than once a day?


My point was, how is it enforceable? Who defines a “majority” They aren’t going to be tracking the number of times you leave the house in a week. So regardless if you’ve been out of the house 5 times in a week, or 1 time in a week, how can the police tell you to go home when the message says the majority of the time?


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## vickster (10 May 2020)

gavgav said:


> My point was, how is it enforceable? Who defines a “majority” They aren’t going to be tracking the number of times you leave the house in a week. So regardless if you’ve been out of the house 5 times in a week, or 1 time in a week, how can the police tell you to go home when the message says the majority of the time?


Would you like everything quantified? I personally like to think most people will be sensible, no one I know would be inclined to take the mick on the basis of semantics.
I’m sure most people not shielding have been out most days if not every day - to exercise as permitted, to shop, to support the vulnerable I certainly have. Being aware of others and staying at least 2m away wherever possible.
There’s been endless discussion about the amount of time spent exercising, posters doing 100km, 100 mile rides, they’re not staying in 24/7. Nor are people still working away from home.


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## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Would you like everything quantified? I personally like to think most people will be sensible, no one I know would be inclined to take the mick on the basis of semantics.
> I’m sure most people not shielding have been out most days if not every day - to exercise as permitted, to shop, to support the vulnerable I certainly have. Being aware of others and staying at least 2m away wherever possible.
> There’s been endless discussion about the amount of time spent exercising, posters doing 100km, 100 mile rides, they’re not staying in 24/7. Nor are people still working away from home.


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> View attachment 521364


Huh?


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

What is the science behind the 2nd wave being more deadly than the first ?


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## gavgav (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Would you like everything quantified? I personally like to think most people will be sensible, no one I know would be inclined to take the mick on the basis of semantics.
> I’m sure most people not shielding have been out most days if not every day - to exercise as permitted, to shop, to support the vulnerable. I certainly have. Being aware of others and staying at least 2m away wherever possible.
> There’s been endless discussion about the amount of time spent exercising, posters doing 100km, 100 mile rides, they’re not staying in 24/7


Completely different argument and you still haven’t said how they are going to enforce it, seeing as you’re the expert on this


vickster said:


> Would you like everything quantified? I personally like to think most people will be sensible, no one I know would be inclined to take the mick on the basis of semantics.
> I’m sure most people not shielding have been out most days if not every day - to exercise as permitted, to shop, to support the vulnerable I certainly have. Being aware of others and staying at least 2m away wherever possible.
> There’s been endless discussion about the amount of time spent exercising, posters doing 100km, 100 mile rides, they’re not staying in 24/7. Nor are people still working away from home.


You keep evading the question, how is it enforceable?


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## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

Personally if anything is said on exercise I don’t think it will change what you can do in England. I just think it will allow people to go out on 100km rides etc without others going tut tut because it’s more than an hour (which has never been the guidance anyway).


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

gavgav said:


> Completely different argument and you still haven’t said how they are going to enforce it, seeing as you’re the expert on this
> 
> You keep evading the question, how is it enforceable?


Why does it need to be enforced? What needs to be enforced?
I simply believe that most people will continue to be sensible and following the guidance once the details are given just as the vast majority have been doing so up to now. There may be nothing needing to be enforced.
Those who have been breaking the rules will continue to do so.
It’s text on an infographic nor official guidance or statute.
Maybe the people you know have rather more disregard for what they are asked to do than those I do?


----------



## gavgav (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Why does it need to be enforced? What needs to be enforced?
> I simply believe that most people will continue to be sensible and following the guidance once the details are given just as the vast majority have been doing so up to now. There may be nothing needing to be enforced.
> Those who have been breaking the rules will continue to do so.
> It’s text on an infographic nor official guidance or statute.
> Maybe the people you know have rather more disregard for what they are asked to do than those I do?


I don’t know them, thanks very much, but there has been plenty of evidence (traffic noise nearby, police messages on Twitter, etc) over this weekend that people have not been abiding by the rules and I put that down to the leaked messages, exacerbated by the newspapers, suggesting lockdown is easing. Personally, if It was me, I’d have made sure my government didn’t leak messages and I’d have waited until I’d made the address to the nation, to give the meat on the bones, before releasing the new slogan.

And on that note, over and out


----------



## matticus (10 May 2020)

gavgav said:


> ...
> You keep evading the question, how is it enforceable?


I don't want to stick my oar in too far here, but the only enforceable thing NOW is The Law - we spend a lot of time debating _guidelines_, and we don't know what/which will be changed in tonight's announcement.


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

I said earlier I don’t look at anything other than the headlines on the BBC.
Certainly not Twitter or newspapers.
What messages have been leaked?
I’ve not seen the news today, so nothing more to say


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Why does it need to be enforced? What needs to be enforced?
> I simply believe that most people will continue to be sensible and following the guidance once the details are given just as the vast majority have been doing so up to now. There may be nothing needing to be enforced.
> Those who have been breaking the rules will continue to do so.
> It’s text on an infographic nor official guidance or statute.
> Maybe the people you know have rather more disregard for what they are asked to do than those I do?



Why does it need to be enforced ? ..... seriously ???


----------



## vickster (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Why does it need to be enforced ? ..... seriously ???


There’s nothing different to enforce I meant. The same law is still in place. Nothing has changed other than a new slogan and poster


----------



## Rusty Nails (10 May 2020)

No one will know what or how much has been leaked until after Johnson's speech.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

vickster said:


> I said earlier I don’t look at anything other than the headlines on the BBC.
> Certainly not Twitter or newspapers.
> What messages have been leaked?
> I’ve not seen the news today, so nothing more to say



You no longer need to stay home, just stay alert.


----------



## Rickshaw Phil (10 May 2020)

Folks, before this gets too heated let's perhaps remember that this is how sensible people were at the start of the current restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504 

The new slogan does sound weak. Perhaps Mr Johnson's address shortly will do something to rectify that, but until we know what he has said, let's not all fall out please.


----------



## T.M.H.N.E.T (10 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> No one will know what or how much has been leaked until after Johnson's speech.


Not even confident of that. Nothings changed here until the next review on 28th. Boris has lost the ear of the nation, it's the time for the devolved governments to speak up.

Wales have? Scotland definitely have, NI's FM/DFM have


----------



## Johnno260 (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What is the science behind the 2nd wave being more deadly than the first ?


 
mutations in the virus, and a case of depleted resources from what I gather.

the other thing about trusting the public’s common sense, I have seen insects with more social responsibility than some humans during this crisis.

the estate where I used to live, so many posting garden parties and drinking with other households on fb and Instagram it’s sickening.

when one of them posted about this being a sickness that targets poorer people, I said not when we have free healthcare, it targets unfortunates and stupid people who don’t respect social distancing.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> mutations in the virus, and a case of depleted resources from what I gather.
> 
> the other thing about trusting the public’s common sense, I have seen insects with more social responsibility than some humans during this crisis.
> 
> ...



Not just that but post peak objective complacency. Most mountaineering accidents happen on the way down. The summit / peak / objective was reach successfully so you relax / let your guard down on the descent as that wasn’t your objective and focus for so long. You have that accident.

So lockdown eases, many think great we’ve beat it, and relax bit by bit. The social distancing stops being practiced so much, the hand washing stops being practiced, we grow complacent about remaining measures. The virus is still out there but due to complacency it spreads far faster than the 1st phase, it climbs exponentially faster than first time round. By the time we realise it is too late, we already have far higher infections plus deaths to come. The second peak in deaths is far higher and sustained for longer.


----------



## Johnno260 (10 May 2020)

I think the complacency is already kicking in already for many.


----------



## T.M.H.N.E.T (10 May 2020)

6mins in and nothing said 🙈


----------



## Johnno260 (10 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Not just that but post peak objective complacency. Most mountaineering accidents happen on the way down. The summit / peak / objective was reach successfully so you relax / let your guard down on the descent as that wasn’t your objective and focus for so long. You have that accident.



haha Boris pretty much quoted you.


----------



## alicat (10 May 2020)

Not. An. Effing. Clue. 

All about re-opening schools and businesses. If I am to keep any strength in my hermit's existence I need a roadmap to know if I will be able to see my Dad on his 88th birthday in August and my friend on his 60th birthday in late July.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

Unlimited exercise, sun bathing and bbqs from Wednesday


----------



## T.M.H.N.E.T (10 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Unlimited exercise, sun bathing and bbqs from Wednesday


In England


----------



## Julia9054 (10 May 2020)

So potentially primary schools partially back on 1st June but not secondary. So schools as childcare so parents can go work and nothing to do with education or which pupils would be more able to safely socially distance.


----------



## fossyant (10 May 2020)

There will be folk driving to Wales to walk or ride. This won't go down well with the Welsh.


----------



## fossyant (10 May 2020)

alicat said:


> Not. An. Effing. Clue.
> 
> All about re-opening schools and businesses. If I am to keep any strength in my hermit's existence I need a roadmap to know if I will be able to see my Dad on his 88th birthday in August and my friend on his 60th birthday in late July.



I doubt we will see MIL until there is a vaccine.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> In England



Well of course, that’s all Boris covers in this regard.


----------



## T.M.H.N.E.T (10 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Well of course, that’s all Boris covers in this regard.


I'm having to explain this elsewhere 🙈 Apparently people don't know where they live


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

So the headline is you can't WFH go to work tommorow.

(And that's a quote from BBC news)


----------



## fossyant (10 May 2020)

Back to work. Pack your sarnies and turn up at the door first thing tomorrow.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> I'm having to explain this elsewhere 🙈 Apparently people don't know where they live



Nicola Sturgeon has said their relaxing of exercise rules does not include sunbathing or bbqs. But then I thought isn’t it currently expected to be around -1C in Scotland with some snow so non issue for now...


----------



## T.M.H.N.E.T (10 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Nicola Sturgeon has said their relaxing of exercise rules does not include sunbathing or bbqs. But then I thought isn’t it currently expected to be around -1C in Scotland with some snow so non issue for now...


The BBQ will double as survival fire


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> The BBQ will double as survival fire



Good point!


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What is the science behind the 2nd wave being more deadly than the first ?


History tells us it is


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> History tells us it is


Yes I get that.
But don't we have better resources/knowledge etc now ?


----------



## rogerzilla (10 May 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> haha Boris pretty much quoted you.


Accidents often happen on the way down because the climbers run out of oxygen. Let's hope that's not an accurate metaphor.


----------



## rogerzilla (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So the headline is you can't WFH go to work tommorow.
> 
> (And that's a quote from BBC news)


Yep. Holiday's over, plebs. We're no longer going to pay you to park your sorry arses at home, watching boxsets and getting hammered. Richi's looked in the kitty and there's just a few pesetas and buttons in there.


----------



## Levo-Lon (10 May 2020)

Bigger fines, people jumping in cars to go to places that are closed?
Go to work if you can?
Don't use P,T..hmm go by road 

Ahh well that's sorted that then


----------



## rualexander (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What is the science behind the 2nd wave being more deadly than the first ?


Possibly starting from a higher level of infections than where we were at the start of the first wave


----------



## Julia9054 (10 May 2020)

rogerzilla said:


> Yep. Holiday's over, plebs. We're no longer going to pay you to park your sorry arses at home, watching boxsets and getting hammered.


Desperate to get back to work personally. Hate working from home.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> The BBQ will double as survival fire



Maybe I can strap a couple to the rack on my bike during my unlimited exercise in case I get benighted.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

rogerzilla said:


> Accidents often happen on the way down because the climbers run out of oxygen. Let's hope that's not an accurate metaphor.



Never had that happen in the Lake District but get the reference.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> 6mins in and nothing said 🙈



Wiffle Waffle was the phrase I said to my wife at the time.


----------



## gavroche (10 May 2020)

fossyant said:


> There will be folk driving to Wales to walk or ride. This won't go down well with the Welsh.


And if they do, the police will be able to fine them or prosecute for prison as it is still not allowed in Wales, and rightly so too.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Bigger fines, people jumping in cars to go to places that are closed?
> Go to work if you can?
> Don't use P,T..hmm go by road
> 
> Ahh well that's sorted that then



Indeed watch road traffic jump right back up.


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yes I get that.
> But don't we have better resources/knowledge etc now ?


I know I was just being lazy with a quick reply i'm still shell shocked clearly i'm not alert


----------



## delb0y (10 May 2020)

Good news, then. Back on the bike from Wednesday. Bet we get crap weather from now on.


----------



## Buck (10 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> So potentially primary schools partially back on 1st June but not secondary. So schools as childcare so parents can go work and nothing to do with education or which pupils would be more able to safely socially distance.



also, how do the pupils get to school? Older kids around here nearly all travel on the buses as school isn’t in walking distance for many. They wouldn’t be able to socially distance getting to school.


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

So are we all clear now .... I think i've worked it out we are all stuffed. 
Remember stay Alert everyone


----------



## screenman (10 May 2020)

I have no work to go back to.


----------



## Buck (10 May 2020)

Tomorrow in Parliament will provide more detail apparently but why not do that today?


----------



## Mo1959 (10 May 2020)

Glad I live in Scotland......at least Nicola Sturgeon is a bit easier to understand!


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Buck said:


> also, how do the pupils get to school? Older kids around here nearly all travel on the buses as school isn’t in walking distance for many. They wouldn’t be able to socially distance getting to school.



They can open the schools but will parents want to send them ? Will they have the staff to cover and how can you fit them all in with social distancing in the class room?


----------



## derrick (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> So are we all clear now .... I think i've worked it out we are all stuffed.
> Remember stay Alert everyone


No, the ones with no common sense are stuffed.


----------



## dutchguylivingintheuk (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> They can open the schools but will parents want to send them ? Will they have the staff to cover and how can you fit them all in with social distancing in the class room?


They just have to stay alert...


----------



## Buck (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> They can open the schools but will parents want to send them ? Will they have the staff to cover and how can you fit them all in with social distancing in the class room?



He did say that they would provide more details about the schooling - they will have to build in SDing but what it will look like?


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

So we get 1000's of people to sign up to help the ones stuck at home. Now over night we've made them not available. 
So now what leave it to already understaffed local services ?


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (10 May 2020)

Living in Scotland and I do wish that the UK all followed the same guidelines (it would make things much easier for the border areas) but I’m with the FM on this one.


----------



## Smudge (10 May 2020)

So it now seems that you can go out in your car (only with your family) to other places and it doesn't have to be an essential journey.
I'm taking this to mean i can go out riding around on my motorcycle.


----------



## Rocky (10 May 2020)

derrick said:


> No, the ones with no common sense are stuffed.


If all we need is common sense why is Boris wasting our time on a Sunday evening?


----------



## Julia9054 (10 May 2020)

It would be far easier to social distance in a secondary school. If you had only years 10 and 12 doing core subjects only and taught in half class sizes it could work. No chance with 4 - 6 year olds though.


----------



## lane (10 May 2020)

Buck said:


> Tomorrow in Parliament will provide more detail apparently but why not do that today?



Perhaps not got round to working it ll out yet.


----------



## derrick (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> If all we need is common sense why is Boris wasting our time on a Sunday evening?


He is talking to the morons, Get real ffs.


----------



## Buck (10 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> It would be far easier to social distance in a secondary school. If you had only years 10 and 12 doing core subjects only and taught in half class sizes it could work. No chance with 4 - 6 year olds though.


Agree. This must be more about freeing up the parents rather than education?

Let’s hope that what you describe is coming soon.


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Buck said:


> He did say that they would provide more details about the schooling - they will have to build in SDing but what it will look like?


About 10 per class room if that the one planning meeting I attended it worked out at 7
Every part of the school day will need totally rethink. You're looking at least doubling the size most schools.


----------



## Rocky (10 May 2020)

derrick said:


> He is talking to the morons, Get real ffs.


Ah, Tory supporters and Brexiteers....now I understand.


----------



## Buck (10 May 2020)

lane said:


> Perhaps not got round to working it ll out yet.


My thoughts too but he would have been better saying nothing or providing the detail in his speech. 



tom73 said:


> About 10 per class room if that the one planning meeting I attended it worked out at 7
> Every part of the school day will need totally rethink. You're looking at least doubling the size most schools.



Or halving the attendance such as mornings only for one lot and afternoons for the others?


----------



## Julia9054 (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> You're looking at least doubling the size most schools.


Or having fewer than half the year groups in


----------



## Rusty Nails (10 May 2020)

delb0y said:


> Good news, then. Back on the bike from Wednesday. Bet we get crap weather from now on.



What has stopped you riding up until now? It has been allowed all along, hasn't it?


----------



## Julia9054 (10 May 2020)

Buck said:


> This must be more about freeing up the parents rather than education?


Doesn’t even really work for that particularly well. You are not going to be able to go to work with your 5 year old at school and your 7 year old at home by itself


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Yes limiting numbers is really the only way but it's going to have to be very clear then that you can't be expected to go into work.
If it's not your kids day for school then or many face the sack.


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

Personally I think the calculation method of r should be made public and bound in legislation that it does not change.

Let's remember how this govt attempted to reduce the number of children in poverty.


----------



## delb0y (10 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> What has stopped you riding up until now? It has been allowed all along, hasn't it?



Yes it has, but I've been using my daily exercise walking the dog (which apparently counted as one's daily exercise) rather than cycling. Now I can do both :-)


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

derrick said:


> He is talking to the morons, Get real ffs.


Sadly the virus is not limited to the morons or morons effect on pubic health.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Doesn’t even really work for that particularly well. You are not going to be able to go to work with your 5 year old at school and your 7 year old at home by itself



Wouldn‘t they be at the same primary school?


----------



## Rocky (10 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sadly the virus is not limited to the morons or morons effect on pubic health.


You also can’t run a major economy, or deal with a pandemic, with common sense alone. Clear, evidence based, rules and guidelines are needed. There seem to be a paucity of these emerging at the moment. Boris is hugely out of his depth.


----------



## snorri (10 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Nicola Sturgeon has said their relaxing of exercise rules does not include sunbathing or bbqs. But then I thought isn’t it currently expected to be around -1C in Scotland with some snow so non issue for now...


It was snowing here today at sea level but not lying, although there is a goodly fresh covering on the hills.


----------



## classic33 (10 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Wouldn‘t they be at the same primary school?


Depends, catchment areas have been fluid over the last few years.


----------



## Rocky (10 May 2020)

The BBC are reporting this as a conditional plan.

What is it conditional on? I’m really confused.


----------



## Rusty Nails (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> You also can’t run a major economy, or deal with a pandemic, with common sense alone. Clear, evidence based, rules and guidelines are needed. There seem to be a paucity of these emerging at the moment. *Boris is hugely out of his depth.*



As I said earlier, all fur coat and no knickers.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The BBC are reporting this as a conditional plan.
> 
> What is it conditional on? I’m really confused.


It's conditional on whether your R's in gear.


----------



## midlife (10 May 2020)

Conditional on the 5 tests I presume?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 May 2020)

What I really disliked about the speech was its bombastic delivery. Totally inappropriate for our times to me.

The content was rather confused too.

"We're going to have 5 levels. I'm not going to tell you what they are though. But I *can* reveal that on this 5 point scale, our current level is four. No three. And a half-ish"


----------



## Rocky (10 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It's conditional on whether your R's in gear.


There seems to be confusion in government about cause and effect where R is concerned.

How do we beat the infection? We drive R down. How do we drive R down? We beat the infection.


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> You also can’t run a major economy, or deal with a pandemic, with common sense alone. Clear, evidence based, rules and guidelines are needed. There seem to be a paucity of these emerging at the moment. Boris is hugely out of his depth.


He's just has the wrong skillset for this. His skill is the likeable bumbling buffoon who fecks up now and then - but underneath it all he's ok .

He's struggling with the serious stuff though.


----------



## tom73 (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The BBC are reporting this as a conditional plan.
> 
> What is it conditional on? I’m really confused.
> 
> View attachment 521392


Meeting all the other 5 steps comes to mind we've not a hope of hitting number 4 
But then it maybe Hancocks 5 pilers or the 3 point plan or the 5 virus level or some other random made up numbered point plan. 
who knows if only i'd have stayed alert.


----------



## Julia9054 (10 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Wouldn‘t they be at the same primary school?


Johnson says years R, 1 and 6 back only. Your 7 year old would be in year 2


----------



## derrick (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Ah, Tory supporters and Brexiteers....now I understand.


It would not matter what ever Boris said or did, You just love to have a moan,


----------



## glasgowcyclist (10 May 2020)

Stay alert is about as meaningful as take back control.


----------



## Rocky (10 May 2020)

derrick said:


> It would not matter what ever Boris said or did, You just love to have a moan,


Ah, so you are happy with what Boris said and the government’s plan. The confusion, waffle and piffle doesn’t worry you? Well, I care about my country’s economy and I care about the elderly in care homes and I care about frontline key workers.

You are confusing caring with moaning.


----------



## T.M.H.N.E.T (10 May 2020)

Smudge said:


> So it now seems that you can go out in your car (only with your family) to other places and it doesn't have to be an essential journey.
> I'm taking this to mean i can go out riding around on my motorcycle.


If riding to somewhere to run a 5k, perhaps...


----------



## marinyork (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The BBC are reporting this as a conditional plan.
> 
> What is it conditional on? I’m really confused.



On people still being here to follow it.


----------



## derrick (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Ah, so you are happy with what Boris said and the government’s plan. The confusion, waffle and piffle doesn’t worry you? Well, I care about my country’s economy and I care about the elderly in care homes and I care about frontline key workers.
> 
> *You are confusing caring with moaning.*


I don't think so. I never voted for Boris, But that's what we got, All your moaning will not change that, Am just thankful Corbyn is not PM.


----------



## Rocky (10 May 2020)

derrick said:


> I don't think so. I never voted for Boris, But that's what we got, All your moaning will not change that, Am just thankful Corbyn is not PM.


Caring, Derrick, caring.....your auto-correct seems to be stuck


----------



## Inertia (10 May 2020)

Why is it that whenever anyone points out Boris shortcomings, Instead of a defence we get a thank god corbyn isn’t in charge? I mean who would want a humanitarian in charge during a pandemic?


----------



## derrick (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Caring, Derrick, caring.....your auto-correct seems to be stuck


----------



## derrick (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Caring, Derrick, caring.....your auto-correct seems to be stuck


----------



## marinyork (10 May 2020)

People will also be allowed to meet one other member of another household at a time outdoors, either while exercising or sitting down, according to government sources.

This is being reported outside of Boris's speech

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...navirus-lockdown-shops-schools-june-reopening

Also reported on the beeb


----------



## Mugshot (10 May 2020)

derrick said:


> I don't think so. I never voted for Boris, But that's what we got, All your moaning will not change that, Am just thankful Corbyn is not PM.


Is this an example of people having a chance to talk more boll**** than they normally would?


----------



## derrick (10 May 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Is this an example of people having a chance to talk more boll**** than they normally would?


Well this thread is full of it, so i wanted to play aswel.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> People will also be allowed to meet one other member of another household at a time outdoors, either while exercising or sitting down, according to government sources.
> 
> This is being reported outside of Boris's speech
> 
> ...



So why the fark wasn't it actually announced?

This leaking rather than transparent communication is catastrophically poor.


----------



## Rocky (10 May 2020)

derrick said:


> Well this thread is full of it, so i wanted to play aswel.


Which is code for ‘I don’t agree but can’t construct a coherent argument, so will troll instead’.


----------



## marinyork (10 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So why the fark wasn't it actually announced?
> 
> This leaking rather than transparent communication is catastrophically poor.



No idea. But widely reported.

It wasn't the clearest of speeches. Maybe it was added at the last minute.


----------



## dutchguylivingintheuk (10 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> Why is it that whenever anyone points out Boris shortcomings, Instead of a defence we get a thank god corbyn isn’t in charge? I mean who would want a humanitarian in charge during a pandemic?


Yeah very strange.. i might think of Boris Johnson as an incapable career politician(although my impression he didn't do as bad as mayor of London) However that's still better as someone who sympathizes with terrorist.


----------



## derrick (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Which is code for ‘I don’t agree but can’t construct a coherent argument, so will troll instead’.


I was unaware i was arguing, Have just stated what i feel. If you don't like it, that's tough, as i really don't give a shoot.


----------



## dutchguylivingintheuk (10 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> No idea. But widely reported.
> 
> It wasn't the clearest of speeches. Maybe it was added at the last minute.


They where just testing if we where staying alert...


----------



## Rusty Nails (10 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> *People will also be allowed to meet one other member of another household at a time outdoors*, either while exercising or sitting down, according to government sources.
> 
> This is being reported outside of Boris's speech
> 
> ...



Neil Ferguson should have waited a bit. He could have had a quickie in the park.


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

Buck said:


> Tomorrow in Parliament will provide more detail apparently but why not do that today?


Parliament is sovereign. The public is not. It's a union of kingdoms, not a union of the peoples, ever closer or not. Get used to it, plebs!


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

Quick scout around the web and Johnson speech is getting a right panning from all sources - 

Some manufacturers groups aren't happy and neither are tjhe london Chamber of commerce.

Richard Burge, chief executive of* London Chamber of Commerce* and Industry, is urging businesses not to return to work tomorrow saying it would be “foolish” until explicit guidance from the prime minister. 

(Good luck with that)

I think Johnson has been rumbled on this one tonight. So far he has got away with making a headline speech - then in the small print saying something different. People haven't gone for it this time. Everyone is asking for precise guidance.


----------



## Inertia (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Quick scout around the web and Johnson speech is getting a right panning from all sources -
> 
> Some manufacturers groups aren't happy and neither are tjhe london Chamber of commerce.
> 
> ...


I did try to watch with an open mind but its really vague. like trying to cover all the bases by not really comitting to anything.


----------



## Julia9054 (10 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> I did try to watch with an open mind but its really vague. like trying to cover all the bases by not really comitting to anything.


Gauging public reaction to tonight’s vagueness so they know which details to make up for tomorrow


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

dutchguylivingintheuk said:


> Yeah very strange.. i might think of Boris Johnson as an incapable career politician(although my impression he didn't do as bad as mayor of London) However that's still better as someone who sympathizes with terrorist.



The question really is would A.N. Tory or Starmer do a better job ? - because Corbyn isn't an option anymore.

Boris is a folk hero at the moment - even after tonights speech. But even he must know he isn't untouchable.


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The BBC are reporting this as a conditional plan.
> 
> What is it conditional on? I’m really confused.
> 
> View attachment 521392



I must have Alzheimers - I don't even remember anything being scheduled to happen on Wednesday !


----------



## Inertia (10 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Gauging public reaction to tonight’s vagueness so they know which details to make up for tomorrow


Maybe, could be why after the leaks the speech was so poor, they tried to change tack by, not?


----------



## Rusty Nails (10 May 2020)

I wonder if Cummings was pushing for this peak time TV statement as a chance for Boris to appear statesmanlike.

If so it didn't work. You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

interesting article on how a softer approach in Sweden is unlikely to help the economy 

https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4b6e


----------



## Rusty Nails (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> The question really is would A.N. Tory or Starmer do a better job ? - because isn't an option anymore.
> 
> Boris is a folk hero at the moment - *even after tonights speech. *But even he must know he isn't untouchable.



What gives you that idea?


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> What gives you that idea?



Touche - an extreme moment of optimism !


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Neil Ferguson should have waited a bit. He could have had a quickie in the park.


Keeping 2m distance. Is he good at calculating trajectories and windage?


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Keeping 2m distance. Is he good at calculating trajectories and windage?


Maybe he has an enormous todger


----------



## Rusty Nails (10 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Keeping 2m distance. Is he good at calculating trajectories and windage?


He's got a reliable model for that.


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Maybe he has an enormous todger


Is the 2m measured from your head not extremities then?


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Is the 2m measured from your head not extremities then?



Well I haven't heard specified otherwise !


----------



## kingrollo (10 May 2020)

If six weeks of lockdown have brought down from level 4 - to level 3.5 (I know but bear with me!) - surely a more relaxed lockdown will at some point take us back up to 4 ? - only question is when ?


----------



## Mugshot (10 May 2020)

derrick said:


> I was unaware i was arguing, Have just stated what i feel. If you don't like it, that's tough, as i really don't give a shoot.


Well, thanks for taking the time to let us know


----------



## alicat (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I must have Alzheimers - I don't even remember anything being scheduled to happen on Wednesday !



Wednesday is the day we can start exercising more than once.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Keeping 2m distance. Is he good at calculating trajectories and windage?



With a 2m long sex toy?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (10 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> Why is it that whenever anyone points out Boris shortcomings, Instead of a defence we get a thank god corbyn isn’t in charge? I mean who would want a humanitarian in charge during a pandemic?




Corbyn would be better than Johnson in this crisis. Johnson is trying to be friends with everyone and not saying stuff that people could be offended by. He doesn't order, he asks. He doesn't instruct, he cajoles and pleads. Corbyn wouldn't give a shoot. He would do what he thought best and anyone objecting would be ignored or shouted down.

The problem is he would in all likelihood have taken the side of the virus.


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> With a 2m long sex toy?


Wouldn't telepresence be almost as good as that?


----------



## marinyork (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If six weeks of lockdown have brought down from level 4 - to level 3.5 (I know but bear with me!) - surely a more relaxed lockdown will at some point take us back up to 4 ? - only question is when ?



When people have bought enough pot plants and beer to stock up for the entire summer.


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If six weeks of lockdown have brought down from level 4 - to level 3.5 (I know but bear with me!) - surely a more relaxed lockdown will at some point take us back up to 4 ? - only question is when ?


Not surely. Only if the R rises above 1 again.


----------



## midlife (10 May 2020)

Not sure how employers can keep their employees 2m apart from tomorrow. My workplace was crammed into an old car park when it was built so I doubt if it could ever be covid secure


----------



## mjr (10 May 2020)

midlife said:


> Not sure how employers can keep their employees 2m apart from tomorrow. My workplace was crammed into an old car park when it was built so I doubt if it could ever be covid secure


No clip art document with a rosette on for you, then!


----------



## lane (10 May 2020)

Didn't seem to have gone down well with the press or anywhere. Can't say I am surprised.


----------



## lane (10 May 2020)

Think I will have an early night got to stay alert for tomorrow. Or is that on Wednesday?


----------



## stowie (10 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Johnson is trying to be friends with everyone and not saying stuff that people could be offended by.



An anonymous advisor during his Mayoralty said that Boris never left a room before everyone in it thought he agreed with them. 

In this case, I think he is being pushed (probably through leaks that led to detailed plans being published and "freedom" headlines) by certain groups in his party to open up faster than medical expert advice would recommend. Although he dealt with Brexit dissent by sacking MPs, the dissenters this time seem to be coming from the right, ERG, Brexity wing of his party which is now his core support, so he will be weak when dealing with them.

This can be seen by the areas that are most ambiguous. Exercise - pretty clear. Working - pretty unclear. I doubt the right of his party are particularly concerned about allowing people to exercise more but they do want people working and certainly off furlough.

What does really scare me (other than COVID itself) is the fact that furlough is masking the impending huge redundancies and unemployment that is going to occur. July is going to see appalling news on jobs, possibly unseen before in our lifetimes. The government will need to invest and spend unprecedented amounts for economic recovery and I just don't think this government has the stomach for it. Austerity isn't going to cut it, and if this is the route taken we will end up circling the drain.


----------



## Inertia (10 May 2020)

stowie said:


> An anonymous advisor during his Mayoralty said that Boris never left a room before everyone in it thought he agreed with them.


If you look at the advice through that lens, That does make sense . Trying to please the 'stay at home' and also the 'you can leave home' sides of the dabte, at the same time, seems like a losing battle though. It also doesnt work well when both sides can see what you promised them.


----------



## stowie (10 May 2020)

lane said:


> Think I will have an early night got to stay alert for tomorrow. Or is that on Wednesday?



I am remaining alert day and night on watch for the virus. I thought I saw it through the window a moment ago until I realised it was actually a plastic bag caught in a tree. Still, you can't be too careful.


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)




----------



## newfhouse (11 May 2020)




----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 May 2020)

stowie said:


> What does really scare me (other than COVID itself) is the fact that furlough is masking the impending huge redundancies and unemployment that is going to occur. July is going to see appalling news on jobs, possibly unseen before in our lifetimes. The government will need to invest and spend unprecedented amounts for economic recovery and I just don't think this government has the stomach for it. Austerity isn't going to cut it, and if this is the route taken we will end up circling the drain.



Yup, recession is coming but I disagree this government won't spend. Who would have said 6 months ago a Tory govt, particularly this Tory govt would be paying 80% of people's wages? We're in uncharted waters and the old rules don't apply.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 May 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/pieandbov/status/1259595001891258371


----------



## Tanis8472 (11 May 2020)

Given a choice, i dont think they would though.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Given a choice, i dont think they would though.



No, I think they will. How many times do we hear about the Tories being in the pocket of big business? Well big business stands to be devastated unless the Tories act. Expect to see big construction projects, lots of housebuilding and an emphasis on British manufacturing to lessen a perceived dependency on Chinese imports. 

The real question is, what departments are going to take the hit? I'm betting Education, Defence and Foreign Aid will be the main ones. Another raise to the pension age and increased taxes together with a deliberate raising of inflation.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 May 2020)

Last one before bed -


View: https://twitter.com/geoff_shenton/status/1259007239903379458


----------



## snorri (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> who knows if only i'd have stayed alert.


No need for any feelings of guilt, no sane person could have remained alert through that rambling 'speech'.


----------



## Tanis8472 (11 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> No, I think they will. How many times do we hear about the Tories being in the pocket of big business? Well big business stands to be devastated unless the Tories act. Expect to see big construction projects, lots of housebuilding and an emphasis on British manufacturing to lessen a perceived dependency on Chinese imports.
> 
> The real question is, what departments are going to take the hit? I'm betting Education, Defence and Foreign Aid will be the main ones. Another raise to the pension age and increased taxes together with a deliberate raising of inflation.



I wasn't disagreeing, just stating that given the choice they wouldn't. They don't really have a choice now. Which is good.

Foreign aid is miniscule though. 👍


----------



## IaninSheffield (11 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> It would be far easier to social distance in a secondary school. If you had only years 10 and 12 doing core subjects only and taught in half class sizes it could work. No chance with 4 - 6 year olds though.


"Easier"? Probably. But arguably still not workable?
In classrooms and with subjects where movement around the room can be avoided, then maybe ... for the duration of the lesson. But wouldn't the real problem be trying to address social distancing during circulation tiime? Whether along narrow corridors, into and out of classrooms, during breaktimes, or coming to and going from school. Then there's the issue of the churning population. Unlike in (some) workplaces where employees are more likely to be in relatively stable workgroups for much of the time (perhaps even like a primary sch classroom?), yrs 10 & 12 will be in groups which change several times a day. Therefore isn't the virus afforded a better chance to move more swiftly through the population?
In a moderate sized school with lets say 300 yr 10s and 12s, what are the odds of all of them being and remaining virus free? Then what is the likelihood of maintaining a level of social distancing, hand hygiene and transmission prevention throughout the day, day after day? I'm sure better, brighter folks than I will have done the modelling to inform the latest guidance, but were I still in the classroom, I'd be worried.


----------



## Mike_P (11 May 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> "Easier"? Probably. But arguably still not workable?
> In classrooms and with subjects where movement around the room can be avoided, then maybe ... for the duration of the lesson. But wouldn't the real problem be trying to address social distancing during circulation tiime? Whether along narrow corridors, into and out of classrooms, during breaktimes, or coming to and going from school. Then there's the issue of the churning population. Unlike in (some) workplaces where employees are more likely to be in relatively stable workgroups for much of the time (perhaps even like a primary sch classroom?), yrs 10 & 12 will be in groups which change several times a day. Therefore isn't the virus afforded a better chance to move more swiftly through the population?
> In a moderate sized school with lets say 300 yr 10s and 12s, what are the odds of all of them being and remaining virus free? Then what is the likelihood of maintaining a level of social distancing, hand hygiene and transmission prevention throughout the day, day after day? I'm sure better, brighter folks than I will have done the modelling to inform the latest guidance, but were I still in the classroom, I'd be worried.


One solution would be for teachers to move room not the pupils, only one desk etc to disinfect. What Boris should have said was employers this week must look at how staff who cannot work at home can work, carry out any necessary measures and allow those staff to return to work rather than simply instructing people to go to work without seemingly much thought by the brain cell.


----------



## IaninSheffield (11 May 2020)

Mike_P said:


> One solution would be for teachers to move room not the pupils


Perhaps a mitigation rather than a 'solution'?


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> Perhaps a mitigation rather than a 'solution'?


Works well in PUR's ones I work with have been being it for years for all year groups. Good opportunity to redesign the curriculum at the same time. Linear learning is much more productive then the current subject in a little box set up. As with many things on the back of this education needs a total rethink from start to finish.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)




----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Being alert i've had another look at the cartoons ... oh sorry info graphics and it's all become clear. 






Step 1 Man in hardhat stands watching cyclist crash into your mate exercising sat on a bench. Being a responsible cyclist as most of us are he's got insurance. 
Step 2 Children flee


----------



## downesy (11 May 2020)

Maybe to help the cost cutting, an ideal time to scrap trident


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Foreign aid is miniscule though. 👍





downesy said:


> Maybe to help the cost cutting, an ideal time to scrap trident



Foreign Aid - £14bn a year
Trident - £2bn a year (or 6 days of the furlough scheme cost)


----------



## fossyant (11 May 2020)

Roger Longbottom said:


> There's going to be some right ding dongs between Scousers, Mancs, Stokies and North Wales Police.
> 
> Boris says we can drive to places, well Mark Drakeford says you can't so here is your fine.



Yup, it's not far to my caravan, and closer to the border on the Welsh side than the English side. About 50 miles from home, 20 miles from the van. *Still not going.*


----------



## Archie_tect (11 May 2020)

Cumbria will remain in lockdown and visitors will be turned away... the Police are terrified of anyone becoming ill and Cumbria has one of the highest rates of infection per100,000... they know what West Cumberland Hospital was like *before* C-19.


----------



## downesy (11 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Foreign Aid - £14bn a year
> Trident - £2bn a year (or 6 days of the furlough scheme cost)
> [/QUOTE
> "Help" being the keyword here, every little helps


----------



## marinyork (11 May 2020)

*Some lowest paid workers most at risk of dying from coronavirus, ONS says*




Caelainn Barr
Some of the lowest paid workers have the highest Covid-19 death rate according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics.
Security guards, care workers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, chefs and retail workers are all at a greater risk of dying from Covid-19, according to new analysis.
Among people of working age men are at a greater risk of dying from the virus than women, with 9.9 deaths compared to 4.2 fatalities per 100,000 people. However the figures show men working in the lowest skilled jobs face the greatest risk of dying from the virus.
Men working as security guards had one of the highest rates, with 45.7 deaths per 100,000, followed by taxi drivers and chauffeurs (36.4), bus and coach drivers (26.4), chefs (35.9), and sales and retail assistants (19.8).
Care workers and home carers had higher death rates, with 23.4 deaths per 100,000 men and 9.6 deaths per 100,000 women. However healthcare workers, including doctors and nurses, were not found to have a higher death rate when compared to the general population.
The figures come as the government has directed workers in some sectors to return to work if possible.

The Guardian


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

On the boarder issue some roads and streets will be split in two. Some staying Alert and some staying at home. 
Some told to work but live in area that's told stay at home 
How's this whole thing possibly going to work?


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

WTF


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Cumbria will remain in lockdown and visitors will be turned away...



Turned away by whom?

It will be legal to drive into Cumbria, plod won't be able to act surely?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (11 May 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/buntyhoven/status/1259560370714402817


----------



## newfhouse (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> WTF
> 
> View attachment 521467


Graphics from and for arts graduates...
Johnson set the alert level at about 3.5, so we have fewer than three infections. Good news.


----------



## MarkF (11 May 2020)

There is no emperical evidence for these lockdowns.

The absurd case againts the Coronovirus Lockdowns.


----------



## Archie_tect (11 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Turned away by whom?
> 
> It will be legal to drive into Cumbria, plod won't be able to act surely?


You could try- police turning people back at the border and fining the obstructive ones.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> WTF
> 
> View attachment 521467


Does that make the Alert Level 31,855.9 (based on yesterday's new cases and an R of 0.9) or 186,984.9 (based on yesterday's active cases)?


----------



## stowie (11 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Does that make the Alert Level 31,855.9 (based on yesterday's new cases and an R of 0.9) or 186,984.9 (based on yesterday's active cases)?



Yes. Seeing as the scale goes from 1 to 5, I would expect 31,855.9 to be pretty serious. Maybe not do a conga for VE day?

When this popped up it reminded me of those shampoo adverts that said "now for the science bit" and then waffled on about nutrileum.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> You could try- police turning people back at the border and fining the obstructive ones.



But the police would have no authority for stopping or fining people at the Cumbria border. Driving into Cumbria would be legal.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Does that make the Alert Level 31,855.9 (based on yesterday's new cases and an R of 0.9) or 186,984.9 (based on yesterday's active cases)?


I'm not sure I only have A-level maths I think I need to ask my mate with a PHD physics if he can work it out.


----------



## Archie_tect (11 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> But the police would have no authority for stopping or fining people at the Cumbria border. Driving into Cumbria would be legal.


Give it a go... I'm sure they'll be sympathetic.


----------



## gbb (11 May 2020)

Mike_P said:


> One solution would be for teachers to move room not the pupils, only one desk etc to disinfect. What Boris should have said was employers this week must look at how staff who cannot work at home can work, carry out any necessary measures and allow those staff to return to work rather than simply instructing people to go to work without seemingly much thought by the brain cell.


It will be down to all employers to assess and put into place measures that are suitable for each individual workplace, not the government...and that's the way it should be. Perhaps he could have made that clear but it's an obvious to me at least.
I've worked all the way through the lockdown and you're all, well a lot of people, are going to be distinctly uncomfortable with going back because you're likely not going to get a perfect solution, its impossible. My company has put loads of measures in place...lots of money spent, lots of day to day managing of problem areas...and yet, achieving safe distancing at all times is virtually impossible, it make me mad sometimes, it makes me nervous most 9f the time....and it's what 90% of people are going to have to confront unless you're very lucky.
The government cannot answer and solve all the issues, there are going to be a myriad of uncertainties and compromises to be made, people are just waking up to it. Lockdown was easy, going back to work isnt going to be in many cases. Welcome to my world all you so far lucky people that were furloughed.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Cumbria will remain in lockdown and visitors will be turned away... the Police are terrified of anyone becoming ill and Cumbria has one of the highest rates of infection per100,000... they know what West Cumberland Hospital was like *before* C-19.



Have you a link to that please?

I can only find Tim Farron's views on the matter which are not official advice.


View: https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1259569078576037889


It is a dilemma as to what is ideal in The Lakes (as it will be in many other tourist hotspots) as the bleating here about the leisure sectors financial hammering is reaching a crescendo within my contact circle. All a question of balance and one that is very tricky.

How full The Lakes gets from Weds onwards is open to conjecture - there's nowhere open to stay, nowhere open to eat (apart from the odd takeaway here and there) and the pubs are shut. That won't deter everyone for sure but I can't see there being an overwhelming stampede - although I sure the Media will contrive some image that suggests otherwise.

I'm in the Central Lakes area later this week so I'll try to remember and report back.


----------



## Archie_tect (11 May 2020)

Spokey,

As of 10:24 today...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/clm1wxp5p7et/cumbria-constabulary


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Spokey,
> 
> As of 10:24 today...
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/clm1wxp5p7et/cumbria-constabulary



Many thanks for that - it didn't come up on my search.

I guess there is a possibility that the ACC's view might be clouded by the potential increased workload for the Force?

On my quick whizz around the village this morning the (legally separated) chats with 3 other residents didn't raise any real concern over the issue, which was discussed in the light of yesterday's announcement.


----------



## gavgav (11 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Cumbria will remain in lockdown and visitors will be turned away... the Police are terrified of anyone becoming ill and Cumbria has one of the highest rates of infection per100,000... they know what West Cumberland Hospital was like *before* C-19.


I don’t see how they can turn them away, under the new guidelines that people can drive as far as they want in England, for exercise? Just to be clear, though, it’s my favourite part of the country, but I definitely *Won’t *be travelling there until this is all over.


----------



## Archie_tect (11 May 2020)

gavgav said:


> I don’t see how they can turn them away, under the new guidelines that people can drive as far as they want in England, for exercise? Just to be clear, though, it’s my favourite part of the country, but I definitely *Won’t *be travelling there until this is all over.


Prepare for 'beauty spots' to be inundated with people wishing to exercise and sunbathe in parks, as allowed in Boris Johnson's speech yesterday...


----------



## gavgav (11 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Prepare for 'beauty spots' to be inundated with people wishing to exercise and sunbathe in parks, as allowed in Boris Johnson's speech yesterday...


I’m afraid so. I fully expect Church Stretton and The Longmynd (near me in Shropshire) to be inundated with visitors from The West Midlands, from Wednesday onwards 😞


----------



## matticus (11 May 2020)

was there a change in how far we can *drive* to exercise?

I recall (pre-may 10th): guidelines said a long walk would justify a short drive (but not vice-versa). Location irrelevant (so Middlesex no different from Cumbria);
May 10th speech - "no limit to duration of exercise".


----------



## marinyork (11 May 2020)

matticus said:


> was there a change in how far we can *drive* to exercise?
> 
> I recall (pre-may 10th): guidelines said a long walk would justify a short drive (but not vice-versa). Location irrelevant (so Middlesex no different from Cumbria);
> May 10th speech - "no limit to duration of exercise".



It's not clear until when it's released in 50 page format with accompanying documents.

Given the garden centre guidelines I'm guessing it'll be a fairly substantial distance!


----------



## gavgav (11 May 2020)

Rickshaw Phil said:


> Folks, before this gets too heated let's perhaps remember that this is how sensible people were at the start of the current restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504
> 
> The new slogan does sound weak. Perhaps Mr Johnson's address shortly will do something to rectify that, but until we know what he has said, let's not all fall out please.


I think we were debating rather than falling out, but point taken 👍🏻


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 May 2020)

The Beebs take on what is happening in Paris - maybe the 50-pager later today will specify masks for us too?

*In Paris, cautious steps out of lockdown*





EPACopyright: EPA
Commuters wearing face masks walk at the Saint Lazare railway station in ParisImage caption: Commuters wearing face masks walk at the Saint Lazare railway station in Paris
In the French capital, metro and bus services are operating, though only every second seat can be used and masks are compulsory. The public transport network is less crowded than feared as commuter traffic has remained light.
Car traffic is much less dense than in normal times, and with bars and cafés shut - and no tourists to speak of - the city still feels unusually quiet, says the BBC's Hugh Schofield in Paris.
On the metro and suburban commuter lines, passengers need an authorisation from their employer if they travel during rush hour - and in general, it has been possible to maintain social distancing.
The head of the Paris public transport operator RATP, Catherine Guillouard, noted people were mostly wearing masks around the network - which "even goes beyond 95% in some places".
But on some parts of the system, there have been incidents of commuters struggling to maintain social distancing.
There was some congestion first thing this morning on line 13 of the metro network after water leaks at two stations caused traffic delays, leading to carriages being overcrowded.
And at some RER stations, commuters were also unable to observe social-distancing rules.


----------



## johnblack (11 May 2020)

gbb said:


> It will be down to all employers to assess and put into place measures that are suitable for each individual workplace, not the government...and that's the way it should be. Perhaps he could have made that clear but it's an obvious to me at least.
> I've worked all the way through the lockdown and you're all, well a lot of people, are going to be distinctly uncomfortable with going back because you're likely not going to get a perfect solution, its impossible. My company has put loads of measures in place...lots of money spent, lots of day to day managing of problem areas...and yet, achieving safe distancing at all times is virtually impossible, it make me mad sometimes, it makes me nervous most 9f the time....and it's what 90% of people are going to have to confront unless you're very lucky.
> The government cannot answer and solve all the issues, there are going to be a myriad of uncertainties and compromises to be made, people are just waking up to it. Lockdown was easy, going back to work isnt going to be in many cases. Welcome to my world all you so far lucky people that were furloughed.


This /\.

There cannot be rules for every single scenario, employers and individuals have to take the guidlines given and work with them, we cannot remain confined forever, and there will be some extra risks, but we face risks everyday anyway. 

Most of what was said last night seemed pretty straight forward to me, I can't understand why some people are making it sound like it wasn't.


----------



## Rocky (11 May 2020)

johnblack said:


> This /\.
> 
> There cannot be rules for every single scenario, employers and individuals have to take the guidlines given and work with them, we cannot remain confined forever, and there will be some extra risks, but we face risks everyday anyway.
> 
> Most of what was said last night seemed pretty straight forward to me, I can't understand why some people are making it sound like it wasn't.


The reason it sounds straightforward was that it lacked any meaningful detail, and, leaving aside the obvious contradictions, could be interpreted in different ways. What you think you can do from Wednesday, is likely very different to my interpretation. Therein lies the problem.

Let’s see what the 50 page guidelines says.


----------



## johnblack (11 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The reason it sounds straightforward was that it lacked any meaningful detail, and, leaving aside the obvious contradictions, could be interpreted in different ways. What you think you can do from Wednesday, is likely very different to my interpretation. Therein lies the problem.
> 
> Let’s see what the 50 page guidelines says.


Yep and in the meantime I will carry on doing what I have been doing and wait for my employer to tell me what they want me to do.


----------



## Rocky (11 May 2020)

johnblack said:


> Yep and in the meantime I will carry on doing what I have been doing and wait for my employer to tell me what they want me to do.


Why not take your lead from the clear instructions provided by Boris?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The reason it sounds straightforward was that it lacked any meaningful detail, and, leaving aside the obvious contradictions, could be interpreted in different ways. What you think you can do from Wednesday, is likely very different to my interpretation. Therein lies the problem.
> 
> *Let’s see what the 50 page guidelines says.*



I think that's the moot point.

I'm also of the opinion that the messaging is so multi-layered that there will still be gaps to fill in as the information is disseminated down to the end users; therefore, I'm not expecting _every _question that we want to know the answer to _will _be answered today. The issues are too vast and too complex to nail down every last detail - at some point _we_ have to pick up the batton and run with it and make it work.

I'm not attempting to over-simplify matters, far from, but the hysterical knee jerk reactions from the media are of no help whatsoever. It would be good to see such influential channels building on central messages with sound, practical thoughts and advice.


----------



## marinyork (11 May 2020)

johnblack said:


> Yep and in the meantime I will carry on doing what I have been doing and wait for my employer to tell me what they want me to do.



I wouldn't have trusted either of my last two employers on H&S for coronavirus and thankful not to be there. 

The worry some will have will be people will start work first and then a week or two later they'll be a health and safety 'update' which will probably have some decent stuff in it, but time will have elapsed.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The reason it sounds straightforward was that it lacked any meaningful detail, and, leaving aside the obvious contradictions, could be interpreted in different ways. What you think you can do from Wednesday, is likely very different to my interpretation. Therein lies the problem.
> 
> Let’s see what the 50 page guidelines says.



Will enough people read it and will it be worth the paper it's on is the big question. 
Workplace's can put in all the measures they like.But sending out the idea you're free to do what you like away from it anyway. 
Is just making everything a whole lot worse.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> I wouldn't have trusted either of my last two employers on H&S for coronavirus and thankful not to be there.
> 
> *The worry some will have will be people will start work first and then a week or two later they'll be a health and safety 'update' which will probably have some decent stuff in it, but time will have elapsed.*



Agreed.

Let's hope that sense will prevail and that workable solutions will be found in terms of a ramp-up approach.


----------



## johnblack (11 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Why not take your lead from the clear instructions provided by Boris?


It's seems pretty obvious that no matter what was said you would've disagreed. I'm going to have a spin on my bike for a bit, I know I can do that.


----------



## Rocky (11 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think that's the moot point.
> 
> I'm also of the opinion that the messaging is so multi-layered that there will still be gaps to fill in as the information is disseminated down to the end users; therefore, I'm not expecting _every _question that we want to know the answer to _will _be answered today. The issues are too vast and too complex to nail down every last detail - at some point _we_ have to pick up the batton and run with it and make it work.
> 
> I'm not attempting to over-simplify matters, far from, but the hysterical knee jerk reactions from the media are of no help whatsoever. It would be good to see such influential channels building on central messages with sound, practical thoughts and advice.


I agree. I have a feeling that this is classic Dom. Put out an ambiguous message to the media. Watch them misinterpret it in many different ways. See what the public reaction is. Then decide to follow what seems the most popular route.

I hate the way I’ve become so cynical. I feel dirty and in need of a shower.


----------



## Rocky (11 May 2020)

johnblack said:


> It's seems pretty obvious that no matter what was said you would've disagreed. I'm going to have a spin on my bike for a bit, I know I can do that.


Not in the least - what I hate is the cake and eat it approach. Look back at my early posts, I’ve been very supportive of Boris, Whitty and Vallance. I just happen to believe we either prioritise the economy or citizens’ health. We are in danger of doing neither.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Just dropped off Mrs 73 off for her covid ICU shift. On the way out I had to wait as the private ambulance was on the way in 
We still have a long way to go in this and sadly more will be lost.


----------



## gavgav (11 May 2020)

matticus said:


> was there a change in how far we can *drive* to exercise?
> 
> I recall (pre-may 10th): guidelines said a long walk would justify a short drive (but not vice-versa). Location irrelevant (so Middlesex no different from Cumbria);
> May 10th speech - "no limit to duration of exercise".


I hope they put a limit on how far you can drive, but it didn’t seem to suggest there would be.....


----------



## marinyork (11 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I'm not attempting to over-simplify matters, far from, but the hysterical knee jerk reactions from the media are of no help whatsoever. It would be good to see such influential channels building on central messages with sound, practical thoughts and advice.



I think the negativity probably reflects what psychologists and various government officials have said, that the public have adhered to the restrictions far more than was modeled/expected and now there's a change people will be anxious, cautious and risk averse generally. Everyone seems to be worried about restrictions lifted, I haven't heard anyone say yippee. The lack of yippees might be because the household mixing already going on the new regs don't make any difference to/don't care. I note the spread of opinions on various polls conducted with the public on different situations e.g. work, public transport, pubs etc.

Public confidence is also based on the soft measures such as communication, the testing regime and the previous week of people. The testing regime, practically, yeah in reality you can't get a test, but it will be a bit of reassurance to some workers. That wasn't something in existence in March. The last week of how peoples' lives were, when people go back to work their views will soften a bit. So for people who aren't care workers, security guards, taxi, bus drivers, hospital and we've spent rather a lot of time at home although it doesn't necessarily represent how it is a lot of people will think yep another week where I haven't got the virus (as the average incubation period) and how people feel may dampen down a little after a couple of weeks.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 May 2020)

.


gavgav said:


> I hope they put a limit on how far you can drive, but it didn’t seem to suggest there would be.....



Not only did Johnson say there was no limit on distance, he was very clear that there is no limit on the *purpose* of driving either. It doesn't have to be for exercise.

Of course, he may well have been contradicting the actual regulations when we see them. It wouldn't surprise me.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Borris is back on the TV tonight too at 7pm. Do you think it will have subtitles so we know what it all really means ? 
In the mean time we have this


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Borris is back on the TV tonight too at 7pm.



Seriously? Why??


----------



## vickster (11 May 2020)

Daily press briefing


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Seriously? Why??


Questions about this 50 page guidelines that are coming out later today.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

It look's like the NHSx app wont work on Huawei needs Apple IOS 11 upwards or Android 8 upwards as a minimum and phones must have Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE). Wonder how many that rules out ?
The advice is update you software and use BLE.
Older phones can't run them and don't BLE so in other words buy a new phone.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Questions about this 50 page guidelines that are coming out later today.



And _Johnson_ is providing answers to the questions? Jesus. He'll just wing it.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Pretty clear message from Nigeria two hotels allegedly violating lockdown have been demolished and management arrested.


----------



## marinyork (11 May 2020)

Guidance published, but I haven't found it yet. Other new documents have appeared.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Government advice is out 
@Brompton Bruce face covering is in


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Guidance published, but I haven't found it yet. Other new documents have appeared.


I can't either


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Borris is back on the TV tonight too at 7pm. Do you think it will have subtitles so we know what it all really means ?
> In the mean time we have this
> View attachment 521521



I think that's fine as a broad sweep first step. 

As explained it's all dependant on the R value at the time hence the lack of preciseness - I have no idea why the Beeb couldn't grasp this with the negative leading questions within a couple of minutes of Boris's statement.


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

Been on the radio that people have been turned away from workplaces as employers and their insurers are unsure if safety measures have been met.


----------



## Inertia (11 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think that's fine as a broad sweep first step.
> 
> As explained it's all dependant on the R value at the time hence the lack of preciseness - I have no idea why the Beeb couldn't grasp this with the negative leading questions within a couple of minutes of Boris's statement.


Isn’t that inevitable? I want the press to spot problems .


----------



## Rickshaw Phil (11 May 2020)

gavgav said:


> I hope they put a limit on how far you can drive, but it didn’t seem to suggest there would be.....





roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> 
> Not only did Johnson say there was no limit on distance, he was very clear that there is no limit on the *purpose* of driving either. It doesn't have to be for exercise.
> ...


In an interview on the BBC this morning Raab specifically said that while, for example, you couldn't drive from England to Wales or Scotland to Wales due to the differences in the regulations, otherwise you could drive anywhere you like.

It might be that the document says something different but the comments are out there now.

Like you Gav, I'm fully expecting the local beauty spots to be inundated. Maybe not straight away but very likely from next weekend.


----------



## marinyork (11 May 2020)

Face coverings in this short document also as already announced on the thread and on the news.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...side-your-home/staying-safe-outside-your-home

"If you can, wear a face covering when in an enclosed space where social distancing isn’t possible, or when you will come into contact with people you do not normally meet. This is most relevant for short periods indoors in crowded areas, for example, on public transport or in some shops.

Evidence suggests that wearing a face covering does not protect you. However, if you are infected but have not yet developed symptoms, it may provide some protection for others you come into close contact with.

Face coverings do not replace social distancing. If you have symptoms of COVID-19 (cough and/or high temperature), you and your household must isolate at home: wearing a face covering does not change this.

A face covering is not the same as the surgical masks or respirators used by healthcare and other workers as part of personal protective equipment. These should continue to be reserved for those who need them to protect against risks in their workplace, such as health and care workers, and those in industrial settings, like those exposed to dust hazards.

Face coverings should not be used by children under the age of 2 or those who may find it difficult to manage them correctly. For example, primary age children unassisted, or those with respiratory conditions.

It is important to use face coverings properly and wash your hands before putting them on and taking them off."

You can make face-coverings at home. The key thing is it should cover the mouth and nose.


----------



## rualexander (11 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Last one before bed -
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/geoff_shenton/status/1259007239903379458




Pointless video with no basis in reality.
No account taken of air currents, wind strength, etc.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Been updated 
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...avirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> Isn’t that inevitable? I want the press to spot problems .



I'm ok with the press spotting problems, as you put it, but my point remains that yesterday was by necessity a broad sweep of the brush statement and yet the Beeb (amongst others) immediately began to criticise the lack of detail. That's either rank stupidity in my book or sensationalist journalism. Probably the latter imo.

Even the 50-pager today will be a long way away from resolving every single issue - and no doubt there will be more outcry about that. How anyone could think (not aimed at you btw) that a 50 page document can lay out an issue of this complexity in immense detail is beyond me.

There will be layers and layers of this to come - not all for direct public consumption but for employers and other official bodies etc too.

And at some point we have to be responsible for our own outcomes as well - and I'm not subscribing to the Gov avoiding blame conspiracy nonsense on social media as an aside.

I wonder if as a society we are becoming too dependant on being told exactly what to do and are becoming incapable of using common sense to fill in the blanks - notwithstanding the fact there will always be some social outliers that can't/won't. One for another thread maybe.


----------



## marinyork (11 May 2020)

> Employers should consider staggering working hours, expanding bicycle storage facilities, providing changing facilities and providing car parking.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Been updated
> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...avirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do



Merci.


----------



## snorri (11 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Daily press briefing


If only Johnson could deliver his messages with this sort of clarity.......

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1259511252629454852


----------



## marinyork (11 May 2020)

Travel together by bike allowed in twos if exercising.

*1.7 Are there restrictions on how far I can travel for my exercise or outdoor activity?*
No. You can travel to outdoor open space irrespective of distance. You shouldn’t travel with someone from outside your household unless you can practise social distancing - for example by cycling. Leaving your home - the place you live - to stay at another home is not allowed.

Bike storage, allowed to travel together with 1 external person to exercise with someone. Bicycle demand


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Government advice is out
> @Brompton Bruce face covering is in



FFS, Don't _ask_, don't _suggest_, don't _advise_, don't "_mibbes aye, mibbes naw_", people are bloody stupid. *Tell *them, *order* them, *enforce* it.

Who's running this country, Sgt bloody Wilson?







"I say, I wonder if you wouldn't mind awfully wearing a face mask, if that's not too much trouble?"


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 May 2020)

snorri said:


> If only Johnson could deliver his messages with this sort of clarity.......
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1259511252629454852



That was funny for about ten seconds the first time. Two months in, it's worn very, very thin.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Day out by car look ok now too 
*1.8 Are day trips and holidays ok? Can people stay in second homes?*
Day trips to outdoor open space, in a private vehicle, are permitted. You should practise social distancing from other people outside your household.
Leaving your home - the place you live - to stay at another home for a holiday or other purpose is not allowed. This includes visiting second homes.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Full 50 page guidance 
https://assets.publishing.service.g..._HMG_C19_Recovery_FINAL_110520_v2_WEB__1_.pdf


----------



## Inertia (11 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I'm ok with the press spotting problems, as you put it, but my point remains that yesterday was by necessity a broad sweep of the brush statement and yet the Beeb (amongst others) immediately began to criticise the lack of detail. That's either rank stupidity in my book or sensationalist journalism. Probably the latter imo.
> 
> Even the 50-pager today will be a long way away from resolving every single issue - and no doubt there will be more outcry about that. How anyone could think (not aimed at you btw) that a 50 page document can lay out an issue of this complexity in immense detail is beyond me.
> 
> ...


I guess we will have to agree to disagree, it’s been a narrative I’ve seen emerging that the press is negative. If there is a lack of detail, it’s not sensationalism to point that out. It would be weird if they didn’t.


----------



## stowie (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> It look's like the NHSx app wont work on Huawei needs Apple IOS 11 upwards or Android 8 upwards as a minimum and phones must have Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE). Wonder how many that rules out ?
> The advice is update you software and use BLE.
> Older phones can't run them and don't BLE so in other words buy a new phone.



I think around 70% of Android phones are currently running Android 8 or newer.

I used to do some (very) amateur Android app development just for some private projects. The IDE (software suite) actually told you the exact numbers but I just removed it from my PC so cannot give you the latest stats.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 May 2020)

View: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/technology-52619568/coronavirus-robot-dog-enforces-social-distancing-in-singapore-park


Great, can they put a taser on it?


----------



## Skibird (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> It look's like the NHSx app wont work on Huawei needs Apple IOS 11 upwards or Android 8 upwards as a minimum and phones must have Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE). Wonder how many that rules out ?
> The advice is update you software and use BLE.
> Older phones can't run them and don't BLE so in other words buy a new phone.


IF your talking about the app being trialled on the IOW, both hubby and I have Huwawei's and it works fine.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Skibird said:


> IF your talking about the app being trialled on the IOW, both hubby and I have Huwawei's and it works fine.


OK well reports are many can't get it to work


----------



## stowie (11 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I wonder if as a society we are becoming too dependant on being told exactly what to do and are becoming incapable of using common sense to fill in the blanks - notwithstanding the fact there will always be some social outliers that can't/won't. One for another thread maybe.



I have seen the "common-sense defence" being used by Boris backers on twitter over and over again. Frankly, a policy relying on common-sense is in trouble before it starts.

Today the Metro has pictures of crowded London tubes and tailbacks on London arterial roads. It appears very much like business as usual.

I am sure people will blame the commuters. Why get on a crowded tube? Well the announcement has given many workers a hobson's choice - if their work says they are now open and expect people in their office they can either risk their health or risk their job.

The more that I think about the speech yesterday the more angry I am. Based on the first impressions of the results of this new guidance we will be very lucky to escape a second wave of infection.


----------



## Rocky (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> OK well reports are many can't get it to work


Geraint Lewis, of NHSx, who is in charge of the app agrees with you

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news...oes-not-work-on-huawei-and-some-older-phones/


----------



## Julia9054 (11 May 2020)

Problem with "common sense" is that for many it becomes "my way of interpreting the guidance is common sense and correct and everyone else is taking the p!ss"


----------



## Hugh Manatee (11 May 2020)

Android or iOS. How do I find the version?


----------



## Skibird (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> OK well reports are many can't get it to work


Not sure what problem others are having but my phone is 18mths old, and after breaking his iphone, hubby is using my even older Huwawei which is about 3.5yrs old.


----------



## stowie (11 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Geraint Lewis, of NHSx, who is in charge of the app agrees with you
> 
> https://www.shropshirestar.com/news...oes-not-work-on-huawei-and-some-older-phones/



Android 8 and above deals with things like BLE communication differently to earlier versions (actually the way an Android "service" is managed when the app isn't running changed significantly). This is not backwards compatible.

But there are ways around this. The app itself could manage the differences, or more easily the developer can host two app downloads (APKs) in the Play Store under the same app name (Play Store sorts out which version is needed depending upon the OS version).

The Apple / Google API joint development abstracts away this complexity by managing it within the tools (as far as I understand). You simply call the new API in your app and the tools manage the nuances. Really nice as Google have already written and fully tested their code so the developer doesn't have to. Plus it helps portability between the Apple and Google platforms. I think the aim is to actually include this BLE tracking in the OS (with opt-in) so that the user doesn't need to download anything at all. But this will require OS upgrades which will take much more time, especially on Android where (generally) individual handset manufacturers are responsible for porting the latest versions onto their hardware. 

BLE is fairly widespread on hardware, but there will be phones that don't have it. If Huawei phones are experiencing issues then my guess is that the lower end handsets don't have BLE or they aren't ported to Android 8 or above. Huawei had problems with the latest Android releases and Trump's trade war, they actually developed their own spin on Android using their own app store. But I think this was only really meant for the Chinese market, and I am not sure of the latest with Huaweii and Android.


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

stowie said:


> I have seen the "common-sense defence" being used by Boris backers on twitter over and over again. Frankly, a policy relying on common-sense is in trouble before it starts.
> 
> Today the Metro has pictures of crowded London tubes and tailbacks on London arterial roads. It appears very much like business as usual.
> 
> ...



It shows the world Boris lives in "Avoid public transport" - not everyone has a choice.


----------



## stowie (11 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Problem with "common sense" is that for many it becomes "my way of interpreting the guidance is common sense and correct and everyone else is taking the p!ss"



Common sense is a very moveable feast. Even without people deciding to push the "common sense envelope".


----------



## glasgowcyclist (11 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It shows the world Boris lives in "Avoid public transport" - not everyone has a choice.



Indeed. I believe in Glasgow over half of households do not have access to a car.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Many areas no longer have any public transport or very little. Much of the latter been stoped due to staff numbers. 
For many even though they can now go out more still can't as no car means no day out even just the park miles away at the moment.


----------



## stowie (11 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It shows the world Boris lives in "Avoid public transport" - not everyone has a choice.



Although he was London Mayor for two terms. I would hope he might have some grasp on the sort of numbers of people TfL deal with seeing as he headed it up. 

I am more cynical on the London situation. He knows full well that even a 25% return to work would destroy any social distancing on public transport. But already Sadiq Khan is being blamed for the crowded tubes because apparently he isn't running enough trains. Even though I suspect Khan had about as much knowledge on the speech as we did, and he cannot magic up train drivers and rail capacity anyway.


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

has any research been done on a virus repellent - if hand santiser kills it, would there be scope for something like insect repellent ?


----------



## vickster (11 May 2020)

stowie said:


> Although he was London Mayor for two terms. I would hope he might have some grasp on the sort of numbers of people TfL deal with seeing as he headed it up.
> 
> I am more cynical on the London situation. He knows full well that even a 25% return to work would destroy any social distancing on public transport. But already Sadiq Khan is being blamed for the crowded tubes because apparently he isn't running enough trains. Even though I suspect Khan had about as much knowledge on the speech as we did, and he cannot magic up train drivers and rail capacity anyway.


He did say in an interview earlier that he had spoken to Boris before the announcement


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Borris is adressering MP's all he needed to do was stick to the 50 page script. Even just read it word for word if you like but no he's made it even worse.


----------



## Rusty Nails (11 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I'm ok with the press spotting problems, as you put it, but my point remains that yesterday was by necessity a broad sweep of the brush statement and yet the Beeb (amongst others) immediately began to criticise the lack of detail. That's either rank stupidity in my book or sensationalist journalism. Probably the latter imo.
> 
> Even the 50-pager today will be a long way away from resolving every single issue - and no doubt there will be more outcry about that. How anyone could think (not aimed at you btw) that a 50 page document can lay out an issue of this complexity in immense detail is beyond me.
> 
> ...


What exactly are you criticising? It is evident that the announcement has left some questions ananswered that will need answering and it is not good enough to assume that they will be in good time. The press have a responsibility to hold the government to task and this usually means asking awkward/negative questions rather just taking everything the government say as tablets of stone.

When it comes to a point of law, that could result in fines or prosecution, then yes, we have to be told exactly what to do, or the prosecutions would be invalid.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 May 2020)

This will be a much needed document - good to see that many 'bodies' were involved.

Excerpted from 60 page follow up to yesterday's briefing:

_COVID-19 Secure" guidelines Many measures require the development of new safety guidelines that set out how each type of physical space can be adapted to operate safely. The Government has been consulting relevant sectors, industry bodies, local authorities, trades unions, the Health and Safety Executive and Public Health England on their development and will release them this week. _


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> What exactly are you criticising? It is evident that the announcement has left some questions ananswered that will need answering and it is not good enough to assume that they will be in good time. The press have a responsibility to hold the government to task and this usually means asking awkward/negative questions rather just taking everything the government say as tablets of stone.
> 
> When it comes to a point of law, that could result in fines or prosecution, then yes, we have to be told exactly what to do, or the prosecutions would be invalid.



It was presented as a top level road map - which it indeed was. We were told that more would follow - it has, and there will be more.

It strikes me as obtuse to pillory BJ for not providing all the detail during a tier one presentation.

That's what I was criticising.


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Being alert i've had another look at the cartoons ... oh sorry info graphics and it's all become clear.
> 
> View attachment 521463
> 
> ...


No, that sign in step 2 clearly means "open to no children". Maybe they're going to be deported to keep Minister Patel happy?


----------



## Rusty Nails (11 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> has any research been done on a virus repellent - if hand santiser kills it, would there be scope for something like insect repellent ?



You could put bleach in a spray and use that on your body before going out. And swallow some just to make certain.


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

heres how it should be done Boris

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/58bc8b-t...xUZi0_CZn7xYZlHyYDUPyoiwhTPlcKuSDRscSXw5slerw


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

johnblack said:


> Most of what was said last night seemed pretty straight forward to me, I can't understand why some people are making it sound like it wasn't.


Maybe "most" of it was straightforward, but almost half wasn't? The COVID alert level formula is totally  spherical danglies:





(from AAV on facebook)


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> You could put bleach in a spray and use that on your body before going out. And swallow some just to make certain.



View: https://mobile.twitter.com/F0REST_TRUMP/status/1253755668735176708


----------



## stowie (11 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Maybe "most" of it was straightforward, but almost half wasn't? The COVID alert level formula is totally  spherical danglies:
> View attachment 521553
> 
> (from AAV on facebook)



Does this help?


----------



## newfhouse (11 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> has any research been done on a virus repellent - if hand santiser kills it, would there be scope for something like insect repellent ?


Donald, is that you?


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> It look's like the NHSx app wont work on Huawei needs Apple IOS 11 upwards or Android 8 upwards as a minimum and phones must have Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE). Wonder how many that rules out ?
> The advice is update you software and use BLE.
> Older phones can't run them and don't BLE so in other words buy a new phone.


With phone shops being half of most high streets, this is their latest idea on how to restart the economy.

I'd look at that phone app source code again but I'm currently doing the much less painful thing paging through log files full of gibberish to try to spot why a server went offline. Has anyone actually built the dratted thing yet and able to tell us a bit more about what's in the ContactEvents data structure, what gets sent to Big Brother when and whether that source code is really what's on the app stores?


----------



## Rusty Nails (11 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> It was presented as a top level road map - which it indeed was. We were told that more would follow - it has, and there will be more.
> 
> It strikes me as obtuse to pillory BJ for not providing all the detail during a tier one presentation.
> 
> That's what I was criticising.



Then he shouldn't have given a highly heralded prime-time TV announcement that left as many questions as answers. 
It was like at bonfire night when someone says they are going to let off a spectacular rocket, everybody gathers, stands back.........and it fizzles out.
We have a perfectly good vehicle for announcements in the daily briefings and did not need this vanity exercise.


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> And _Johnson_ is providing answers to the questions? Jesus. He'll just wing it.


Don't worry. He'll have his advisor talking into an earpiece, which helped Matt Hancock so much:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osgcTSVt7eU


----------



## Archie_tect (11 May 2020)

Forward planning with a 3 week lead-in:

1. WEEK 1 Work through a comprehensive plan of action with input from specialists, users and operators.
2. Rationalise that plan and work through all possible scenarios to check its effectiveness.
3. WEEK 2 Review, check again and refine it to achieve a final version.
4. WEEK 3 Publish the plan and *at the same briefing* distribute a comprehensive press release with a set of clear bullet points from the main headings of the full report for the press to announce in headlines so everyone is clear.

You don't think something up in the taxi to the briefing, flesh it out on the hoof and two days later qualify what you think you just said with additional knee-jerk updatesover the next 2 days, to plug any gaps in your first presentation.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 May 2020)

Here's a stat for you. If you spend 7 days in ICU you will likely lose 20% of your muscle mass. As well as all the other damage, it's a long road to recovery.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Then he shouldn't have given a highly heralded prime-time TV announcement that left as many questions as answers.
> It was like at bonfire night when someone says they are going to let off a spectacular rocket, everybody gathers, stands back.........and it fizzles out.
> We have a perfectly good vehicle for announcements in the daily briefings and did not need this vanity exercise.



I guess we will have to agree to differ.

It delivered what I thought would be delivered in a 15 minute 'looking forward' briefing.

As it marked a step change in the process I agree with it being separated from the real-time daily updates.

No idea why you consider an important announcement by the UK's foremost politician as a vanity project.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Forward planning with a 3 week lead-in:
> 
> 1. WEEK 1 Work through a comprehensive plan of action with input from specialists, users and operators.
> 2. Rationalise that plan and work through all possible scenarios to check its effectiveness.
> ...



Exactly this. It's rank, amateurish incompetence. 

What on earth are they thinking?


----------



## PK99 (11 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It shows the world Boris lives in "Avoid public transport" - not everyone has a choice.



But those who do should avoid it. Simple message. Easy to understand.


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> This will be a much needed document - good to see that many 'bodies' were involved.
> _ [...] The Government has been consulting relevant sectors, industry bodies, local authorities, trades unions, [...] _


Surely everyone on this forum knows from sooooo many cycling projects that "consulting" does not mean that they were listened to in any way, shape or form?

For example, when the West Norfolk cycling campaign was consulted on Norfolk CC's Cycling and Walking Action Plan, we strongly supported the King's Lynn to Castle Acre route shown on the map, which was then deleted from the final plan, leaving no council-supported route eastwards in over 40km - strangely enough, the cycling campaign doesn't support that failure to plan!


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> But those who do should avoid it. Simple message. Easy to understand.


Not easy to follow though.

My wife works 9 miles away. She doesn't have a car and generally gets the bus to work.


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

stowie said:


> But already Sadiq Khan is being blamed for the crowded tubes because apparently he isn't running enough trains. Even though I suspect Khan had about as much knowledge on the speech as we did, and he cannot magic up train drivers and rail capacity anyway.


Wasn't TfL basically forced into furloughing a lot of staff a few weeks ago by central government refusing to help sort out the funding of the reduced-income services?


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Even the 50-pager today will be a long way away from resolving every single issue - and no doubt there will be more outcry about that. How anyone could think (not aimed at you btw) that a 50 page document can lay out an issue of this complexity in immense detail is beyond me.
> 
> There will be layers and layers of this to come - not all for direct public consumption but for employers and other official bodies etc too.


At the point that the public-facing instruction of a public health measure becomes "layers and layers" of 50 page documents, it's basically failed. No-one is going to follow all of that and it's quite likely that they'll not follow the important bits well enough.

Emergencies like this call for clear, concise and consistent messages, but the current administration does waffle backed up by reams of reports in the hope that the correct bit was in there somewhere so, when it all goes wrong, they can point at it and say they told us so but we weren't listening properly.



> And at some point we have to be responsible for our own outcomes as well - and I'm not subscribing to the Gov avoiding blame conspiracy nonsense on social media as an aside.


Don't you think we feel responsible for { voting in this shower / allowing this shower to get voted in }? I know I do.



> I wonder if as a society we are becoming too dependant on being told exactly what to do and are becoming incapable of using common sense to fill in the blanks - notwithstanding the fact there will always be some social outliers that can't/won't. One for another thread maybe.


As I wrote earlier, the trouble with "common sense" is that it is so often neither common nor sense! If it had been left to common sense, villagers would have been shooting exercising cyclists by now.


----------



## PK99 (11 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not easy to follow though.
> 
> My wife works 9 miles away. She doesn't have a car and generally gets the bus to work.



But if those who do have a choice avoid public transport it reduces the risk to those who don't. Is that too hard to understand?

Our walk this morning was up into Wimbledon Common. We misjudged the weather, and were very cold. Normally we would have jumped on one if the very frequent busses, flashed our passes and got home and warm very quickly.

We chose not to do that and ignored the multiple almost empty busses that passed us as we shivered our way home.


----------



## stowie (11 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Wasn't TfL basically forced into furloughing a lot of staff a few weeks ago by central government refusing to help sort out the funding of the reduced-income services?



Yes, although I think the furloughed employees were generally back office staff instead of front line drivers and so on. The biggest issue with drivers seemed to be that a lot of them fell ill with COVID reducing the number of people available to run services.


----------



## matticus (11 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It shows the world Boris lives in "Avoid public transport" - not everyone has a choice.





PK99 said:


> But those who do should avoid it. Simple message. Easy to understand.





kingrollo said:


> Not easy to follow though.
> 
> My wife works 9 miles away. She doesn't have a car and generally gets the bus to work.



I'm not seeing the problem here.


----------



## vickster (11 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not easy to follow though.
> 
> My wife works 9 miles away. She doesn't have a car and generally gets the bus to work.


How has she been getting to work for the last 8 weeks? Public transport has still been running for essential workers, those who can''t wfh etc


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

stowie said:


> Yes, although I think the furloughed employees were generally back office staff instead of front line drivers and so on. The biggest issue with drivers seemed to be that a lot of them fell ill with COVID reducing the number of people available to run services.


I wonder how many of the furloughed "back office staff" were the staff who would manage things like high illness absences by coming up with new service plans and rotas. I doubt there was that much non-core activity going on after 2 terms of Boris and Sadiq hasn't had that long to change things.


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

vickster said:


> How has she been getting to work for the last 8 weeks? Public transport has still been running for essential workers, those who can''t wfh etc


Furloughed.


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

Just on appearances, I think the A10 past my office window was at about 80-90% of usual first thing this morning, then it continued at about 100% (usual traffic level but maybe 70% of rush hour) for most of this morning and has fallen back this afternoon to the 40-50% that's been normal through lockdown.

I wonder just how many people tried to go back to work this morning and were sent home - I suspect it could be quite a lot. I wait to see whether we get a near-full rush hour this evening, or a half-strength lockdown one.


----------



## vickster (11 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Furloughed.


And still presumably as scheme extended until end June?


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

vickster said:


> And still presumably as scheme extended until end June?


Good question.

Was told not to go in today.

Was then told to go in next Monday - then tWednesday, then Monday again...and just now they will contact her !!!


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Just on appearances, I think the A10 past my office window was at about 80-90% of usual first thing this morning, then it continued at about 100% (usual traffic level but maybe 70% of rush hour) for most of this morning and has fallen back this afternoon to the 40-50% that's been normal through lockdown.
> 
> I wonder just how many people tried to go back to work this morning and were sent home - I suspect it could be quite a lot. I wait to see whether we get a near-full rush hour this evening, or a half-strength lockdown one.



I think it's the insurance, safe workplace thing - it was on the radio that people turned up for work - only to be sent home - with employers waiting for confirmation on insurance.


----------



## vickster (11 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Good question.
> 
> Was told not to go in today.
> 
> Was then told to go in next Monday - then tWednesday, then Monday again...and just now they will contact her !!!


Then she doesn’t need to use public transport until clarified  Was she furloughed because she can't work from home?
Do you have a car? If you're wfh, can't you drive her?


----------



## PK99 (11 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Maybe "most" of it was straightforward, but almost half wasn't? The COVID alert level formula is totally  spherical danglies:
> View attachment 521553
> 
> (from AAV on facebook)



Would you have preferred the more rigorous, but to most meaningless : 
AL = f(Ri,Ni) ?

The simply understood non formula was a simple visual way of expressing a quite complex idea.


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> The simply understood non formula was a simple visual way of expressing a quite complex idea.


For every problem, there is an answer that's simple, obvious and wrong (paraphrasing).

The less meaningful one would have been better than using something simpler but with the wrong meaning. Actually, I posted some time ago a two dimensional graph of safe zones and action zones, with cases on one axis and infection rate on the other, roughly equivalent to the UK alert levels, as used by another country. But it seems our government considers us too thick to cope with a graph, so we get simple but misleading pseudomaths.


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Then she doesn’t need to use public transport until clarified  Was she furloughed because she can't work from home?
> Do you have a car? If you're wfh, can't you drive her?


Yes - I was thinking more of going forward - she doesn't like driving to work (health reasons) TBF employer have always been pretty good with her over the years.

My point was more a general one - that for a lot of people not using public transport isn't an option - hence this morning's pictures from London underground.


----------



## theclaud (11 May 2020)

vickster said:


> And still presumably as scheme extended until end June?


Employers choose who to furlough and can review it throughout the eligible period. The announcement last night is about forcing people back into work, whether it's safe or not.


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

theclaud said:


> Employers choose who to furlough and can review it throughout the eligible period. The announcement last night is about forcing people back into work, whether it's safe or not.


The ultimate irony is that insurance companies are reluctant to say ok - until they have more guidance !


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

theclaud said:


> Employers choose who to furlough and can review it throughout the eligible period. The announcement last night is about forcing people back into work, whether it's safe or not.


 
Some really don't know life outside north of Watford or what many don't have good a employer or the security of good T&C. 
Or that for many they live week to week not knowing what the next week will being.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 May 2020)

Vitamin D and severity of Corona Virus symptoms in particular cytokine storms

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200507121353.htm


----------



## randynewmanscat (11 May 2020)

I was watching a program about Britains favourite sweets and it was interrupted by the continuity announcer telling me that there would be a message by the prime minister. I can only say that it was a surreal experience and that the return of the sweety based show was a welcome relief with more cogent words and thoughts. There are things you cannot "unsee", the rude interruption was one such event.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> Would you have preferred the more rigorous, but to most meaningless :
> AL = f(Ri,Ni) ?
> 
> The simply understood non formula was a simple visual way of expressing a quite complex idea.


Our first defence of fake maths!


----------



## Archie_tect (11 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> But if those who do have a choice avoid public transport it reduces the risk to those who don't. Is that too hard to understand?
> 
> Our walk this morning was up into Wimbledon Common. We misjudged the weather, and were very cold. Normally we would have jumped on one if the very frequent busses, flashed our passes and got home and warm very quickly.
> 
> We chose not to do that and ignored the multiple almost empty busses that passed us as we shivered our way home.



If the buses are empty then it makes perfect sense to use them - what isn't helpful is when, during peak times they start to fill up and people are forced to compromise their distancing or have to wait for the next one or the next when trying to get to work.


----------



## Pat "5mph" (11 May 2020)

Meanwhile in Glasgow: I saw a barber open today!


----------



## marinyork (11 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> Would you have preferred the more rigorous, but to most meaningless :
> AL = f(Ri,Ni) ?
> 
> The simply understood non formula was a simple visual way of expressing a quite complex idea.



It's not complex. It's very simple. This sort of attitude is why the communication of coronavirus stuff is so bad.


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I was watching a program about Britains favourite sweets and it was interrupted by the continuity announcer telling me that there would be a message by the prime minister. I can only say that it was a surreal experience and that the return of the sweety based show was a welcome relief with more cogent words and thoughts. There are things you cannot "unsee", the rude interruption was one such event.


What would Boris be if a sweet? I suggest a Curly-Wurly: looks good at first but turns out to be thin, tough and full of holes!


----------



## Bazzer (11 May 2020)

From my sister: (an abridged version)
4 year olds can go to school, but university students who have paid for tuition they haven't had and accommodation they are not living in, can't go to university.
I can be at a school with many 4 year olds I am not related to and about whom I have no idea of their family's actions and interactions during the lock down, but cannot see one four year old I am related to and whose parents' actions I trust.
Youngest children go back to school first because..... they are notoriously good at not touching things they shouldn't touch, maintaining personal space at all times and have personal hygiene at the top of their list of thought processes. 
I cannot sit in a park today or tomorrow, but from Wednesday that will be fine.
I can work all day with a colleague in a closed environment such as an office or factory, but cannot sit in their garden after work. 
I should go out as little as possible, but can travel for exercise. So that's me off to Brighton next weekend, even though I live in the North West.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's not complex. It's very simple. This sort of attitude is why the communication of coronavirus stuff is so bad.



like this you mean ? 

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOUF1mXGNRY


----------



## Archie_tect (11 May 2020)

mjr said:


> What would Boris be if a sweet? I suggest a Curly-Wurly: looks good at first but turns out to be thin, tough and full of holes!


A Cadbury's Chump.


----------



## Inertia (11 May 2020)

It does seem to be the new strategy, when You ask for clarity you are accused of insulting the intelligence of the British public.

View: https://youtu.be/Ktl2KtJTlAU


----------



## Archie_tect (11 May 2020)

AKA the Brexit Gambit...


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

screenman said:


> Just seen this, could be rubbish though.


Handy tip: check before you post! Yes, it is rubbish: German shops are reopening, outdoor areas of bars and restaurants are opening, schools and churches are resuming gradually and outdoor sports including football are starting up again this month, although there is significant variation between states, but it's far more relaxed than "the same restrictions" as the UK will have.

Unusual that I defend Boris's administration slightly. I think I'll go lie down.


----------



## screenman (11 May 2020)

I was going to check it but I knew someone else would.


----------



## MarkF (11 May 2020)

screenman said:


> Just seen this, could be rubbish though.
> 
> United Kingdom
> Confirmed: 224,327
> ...



Recovered 1007? More than 350 confirmed positive patients have been admitted & later discharged (to their place of residence) frrom our hospital alone.

From memory this is more than 50% of the + confirmed case total.


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

screenman said:


> I was going to check it but I knew someone else would.


Sadly, in the meantime, 3 people have copy pasted it on. Please please please check before you post.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 May 2020)

Anyone know the answer?


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

So we had a great statesmanlike short speech by Kier Starmer giving voice to questions and worries expressed by many, just before Boris broadcasts a Hancockesque meltdown from Downing Street and muddies an already confused situation.

If only Corbyn had gone before December's election...


----------



## glasgowcyclist (11 May 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Meanwhile in Glasgow: I saw a barber open today!



What’s he using, a scythe?!


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

"People unable to work from home should return to work" ← return? Weren't they told to keep going in?


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

Boris saying we'll need to be "errrr ever smarter" somehow doesn't sound so smart. :-(


----------



## oldfatfool (11 May 2020)

I have never bought into the idea that the reason we couldn't use our holiday home was because if we had an accident travelling it would stress the NHS, so why is it OK now for me to drive there for the day, lounge about in the sun, go for a walk around, but then have to travel straight home rather than spend the night? I can only presume it is in case covid only manifests itself so badly that it paralyses during the hours of darkness, or if taking the rules literally at bang on midnight.


----------



## screenman (11 May 2020)

mjr said:


> "People unable to work from home should return to work" ← return? Weren't they told to keep going in?



I have no work to go back to.


----------



## MarkF (11 May 2020)

screenman said:


> I have no work to go back to.



Forget about real work, this is the new covid world, things will be different, I'd put all your savings into security screen/barrier companies, are they sitting pretty or what?

Just been to Morrisons with it's barrier protected entrance, if you park on the RH side of it then you have a 5 min walk AWAY from the entrance and then back towards to get in, same problem if you've parked on the LH and are now leaving. Of course, whilst you are in the store everybody mingles. This nonsense will shadow us for years.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Education guidelines some are still to follow. 
Max class size set at 15 primary desks should be spaced as far apart as possible. Secondary schools and colleges distance is set at 2m.
Vulnerable children and children of critical workers have to be taught in separate year groups.
PPE not required unless already used such as care of spacial needs. Can be used if child get's ill but only if 2m can't be done and only for possible covid
Any child that get ill with covid/possible must be sent home and family isolates. Test's available for other children in school but only if showing signs. 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...n-and-childcare-settings#class-or-group-sizes


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

View: https://medium.com/@jonjalex/johnsons-message-is-very-deliberate-and-very-dangerous-here-s-how-to-combat-it-d336cae96348


----------



## Tanis8472 (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Education guidelines some are still to follow.
> Max class size set at 15 primary desks should be spaced as far apart as possible. Secondary schools and colleges distance is set at 2m.
> Vulnerable children and children of critical workers have to be taught in separate year groups.
> PPE not required unless already used such as care of spacial needs. Can be used if child get's ill but only if 2m can't be done and only for possible covid
> ...


Well that'll leave my mrs unable to work then. She's shielding and has job as passenger assistant for special needs kids.


----------



## mjr (11 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> Just been to Morrisons with it's barrier protected entrance, if you park on the RH side of it then you have a 5 min walk AWAY from the entrance and then back towards to get in, same problem if you've parked on the LH and are now leaving. Of course, whilst you are in the store everybody mingles. This nonsense will shadow us for years.


You're lucky having cycle parking both sides of the entrance. Ours only has it on the LH/exit side. Still better than Sainsbury's where they're making sweaty sneezing people queue through the main cycle parking!


----------



## MarkF (11 May 2020)

Hospital perspective. I spend maybe 3 hours a day moving Covid+ patients, many other staff spend their entire shift dealing with them. We are not dropping like flies, I am 57 fit & healthy and do not fear it. Entire wards are full of positive confirmed patients chatting to their neighbours and waiting to be sent home. I can think of 3 wards (old, ill, fat folk) where it must be like hell, but there are about 40 wards.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Well that'll leave my mrs unable to work then. She's shielding and has job as passenger assistant for special needs kids.


Yep that's my take on it too


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> Hospital perspective. I spend maybe 3 hours a day moving Covid+ patients, many other staff spend their entire shift dealing with them. We are not dropping like flies, I am 57 fit & healthy and do not fear it. Entire wards are full of positive confirmed patients chatting to their neighbours and waiting to be sent home. I can think of 3 wards (old, ill, fat folk) where it must be like hell, but there are about 40 wards.


Tbh your track record on this isn't great though is it.
Back in February you told us all that none of the doctors you spoke to were concerned about Coronavirus - and that the NHS had a plan and could cope.

32000 deaths (admiittley not NHS deaths) later and your now telling us that NHS staff don't fear covid 19.


----------



## randynewmanscat (11 May 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Meanwhile in Glasgow: I saw a barber open today!


I was with one of my neighbours for the first time in nearly two months. She was joking about the palava at the coiffure today, she told me that the hairdresser was wearing mask and visor but the visor kept steaming up, obviously the first or second job with the new precautions. My neighbour told her to wash the visor with a splash of detergent in the water and happy days followed.
These are perilous times for social conventions and asking you if you have been on your holidays yet will surely not be heard for a while.


----------



## tom73 (11 May 2020)

Workplace guidelines now available 
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19


----------



## randynewmanscat (11 May 2020)

mjr said:


> but turns out to be thin


The aspect ratio on your TV is set correctly? I think you mean thin in another way though.


----------



## MarkF (11 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Education guidelines some are still to follow.
> Max class size set at 15 primary desks should be spaced as far apart as possible. Secondary schools and colleges distance is set at 2m.
> Vulnerable children and children of critical workers have to be taught in separate year groups.
> PPE not required unless already used such as care of spacial needs. Can be used if child get's ill but only if 2m can't be done and only for possible covid
> Any child that get ill with covid/possible must be sent home and family isolates. Test's available for other children in school but only if showing signs.



Do the dropets expire at 2m or summat?


kingrollo said:


> Tbh your track record on this isn't great though is it.
> Back in February you told us all that none of the doctors you spoke to were concerned about Coronavirus - and that the NHS had a plan and could cope.
> 
> 32000 deaths (admiittley not NHS deaths) later and your now telling us that NHS staff don't fear covid 19.



The NHS did have plan and it did cope, easily. That plan would have been in place for "anything".

I did not say NHS staff do not fear Covid-19, l said that l do not, not that I've heard anybody else say they fear it or react on that.

I think your doom gladen long term postings will prove to be wrong. We'll see.


----------



## kingrollo (11 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> Do the dropets expire at 2m or summat?
> 
> 
> The NHS did have plan and it did cope, easily. That plan would have been in place for "anything".
> ...


I think you said we'll see back in February as well.


----------



## marinyork (11 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> Do the dropets expire at 2m or summat?



The UK government (Vallance) believes there's between 10 times and 30 times less risk at 2 m than 1 metre. The difference coming down to the make up of droplet size, whether transmission is droplet only or droplet with a lot of aerosol behaviour, and a few other factors many of which are hard to model.


----------



## mjr (12 May 2020)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDTvLldOgZs


----------



## Rocky (12 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> Hospital perspective. I spend maybe 3 hours a day moving Covid+ patients, many other staff spend their entire shift dealing with them. We are not dropping like flies, I am 57 fit & healthy and do not fear it. Entire wards are full of positive confirmed patients chatting to their neighbours and waiting to be sent home. I can think of 3 wards (old, ill, fat folk) where it must be like hell, but there are about 40 wards.


As of today at least 205 health care workers have died of Covid. See: nursingnotes.com

I am pleased you are fit and healthy and do not fear getting the infection. My wife has two HCP friends who have died of Covid. We know others who have spent time in ICU and even 4 weeks after discharge are unable to go back to work due to post-viral tiredness. Two of these are younger than you and both were audax cyclists. They used to ride 300 mile events. They are currently struggling to cycle round the block.

Your experience is valid for you. It is not the experience of others.


----------



## Tanis8472 (12 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Workplace guidelines now available
> https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19



*3.3 Social distancing in vehicles*
Objective: To maintain social distancing wherever possible between individuals when in vehicles:

avoid multiple occupancy vehicles where safe to do so
vehicles should not be shared if possible
if it is not possible to keep a 2m distance in a vehicle, consider additional safety measures
*Steps that will usually be needed:*

Devising mitigation measures where workers have no alternative but to work within 2m to minimise the risk of transmission, including:

– clear signage to outline social distancing measures in place
– single person or contactless refuelling where possible
– using physical screening, provided this does not compromise safety, for example, through reducing visibility
– sitting side-by-side not face-to-face and increasing ventilation where possible
Using a fixed pairing system if people have to work in close proximity, for example in a vehicle.
Making sure vehicles are well-ventilated to increase the flow of air, for example, by opening a window.
Ensure regular cleaning of vehicles, in particular between different users.

They will probably have great difficulty as these kids don't 'do' rules like you or I. 
Also knowing how well some of the drivers keep the vehicle clean would be very concerning.


----------



## kingrollo (12 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> As of today at least 205 health care workers have died of Covid. See: nursingnotes.com
> 
> I am pleased you are fit and healthy and do not fear getting the infection. My wife has two HCP friends who have died of Covid. We know others who have spent time in ICU and even 4 weeks after discharge are unable to go back to work due to post-viral tiredness. Two of these are younger than you and both were audax cyclists. They used to ride 300 mile events. They are currently struggling to cycle round the block.
> 
> Your experience is valid for you. It is not the experience of others.


What ever happened to that Blond haired fella - who went around shaking covid patients hands because he didn't fear the virus ?

Oh yeah - he almost died from it.


----------



## Venod (12 May 2020)

mjr said:


> View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDTvLldOgZs



Johnny Nash is one confused individual'

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FscIgtDJFXg


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> *3.3 Social distancing in vehicles*
> Objective: To maintain social distancing wherever possible between individuals when in vehicles:
> 
> avoid multiple occupancy vehicles where safe to do so
> ...



Yes a real mess I know what you mean we've drivers and students like that. We also have a number of cars for small pick up's as some can't cope in the back of bus. They will need a rethink for some we use taxi's if they are running with less drivers then some can't simply get into school. No word on attendance orders if they can't get public transport , we can't provide any and legally are entitled. They can't really enforce them. We then have special needs transport which in many areas is thin on the ground as is. Take away even more capacity , add in turn around time it's going to take most of the school day to get them in the building never mind anything else.


----------



## screenman (12 May 2020)

I have it from a reliable source that Lincolnshire has need for 400 taxi's for school kids in normal times, now of course these vehicles do far more each day than just two transfers, will the need cleaning after each job? I did doubt the numbers then realized there are three kids in our street that use separate taxi's.


----------



## PK99 (12 May 2020)

Picking holes in plans is all well and good. But faced with a dynamic and uncertain situation there are bound to be difficulties and uncertainties. And changes to plans and proposals.

Fact is, we have to get out of lockdown. Naysaying kibitsing contributes nothing to the solution.


----------



## newfhouse (12 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> Picking holes in plans is all well and good.


Yes. It’s what the planners should have done before dribbling out their plans to the public.


----------



## marinyork (12 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> Picking holes in plans is all well and good. But faced with a dynamic and uncertain situation there are bound to be difficulties and uncertainties. And changes to plans and proposals.
> 
> Fact is, we have to get out of lockdown. Naysaying kibitsing contributes nothing to the solution.



Just as well you think the public can't understand very simple messages, I'm sure that helps.


----------



## kingrollo (12 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> Picking holes in plans is all well and good. But faced with a dynamic and uncertain situation there are bound to be difficulties and uncertainties. And changes to plans and proposals.
> 
> Fact is, we have to get out of lockdown. Naysaying kibitsing contributes nothing to the solution.



True there are no easy answers. However if people the govt has got something wrong or could have done better - then I think speaking out should be actively encouraged - the stakes could not be higher.

I think even Johnson would admit that his broadcast Sunday evening wasn't his finest hour - even the very basics like return to Monday wasn't correct - Rabb said Wednesday the following morning. 
He should have waited 24 hours and made that address after the document was released.


----------



## PK99 (12 May 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Yes. It’s what the planners should have done before dribbling out their plans to the public.



No battle plan survives first contact.


----------



## Rocky (12 May 2020)

I’m increasingly upset at the ‘it’s common sense’ approach. This puts the blame onto the victim. If I catch Covid and, heaven forbid, die, it’s my fault because I didn’t demonstrate common sense and wasn’t alert enough.


----------



## PK99 (12 May 2020)

*We are all cyclists*.

*Cycling involves exposure to major hazards* potentially resulting in injury or death every time we get on our bikes:
Collisions with other traffic.
Pedestrians.
Mechanical failures
Potholes
etc

*The only way of being a completely safe cyclist is to lock up and never ride your bike.*

Yet we do get on our bikes and ride.

*How do we stay acceptably safe?*

We *STAY ALERT* to the hazards, and in doing so minimise our probability of having an accident and thereby keep our risk to an acceptable level.


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

@MarkF Good for you 
@Brompton Bruce has already explained that it's not that simple and we are losing health workers. 
We don't have this magic front line that Covid won't pass. Or staff away from ICU or hot areas just waiting around as some are starting to believe and promote. That are seen as less worthily of funding or recognition which i've already tried to explain in detail on here already. 
Most of the deaths are not on the "front line" but so called low risk. Areas that you won't have contact with as most are well away from hospital. The 1st nurse death for example via Covid worked in community mental health service. 
Sadly we too have lost HCP's we both know due to Covid.Both fit and well and worked in "low risk"
We have one "NHS" and one "front line"


----------



## newfhouse (12 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> No battle plan survives first contact.


True, but there’s no enemy trying to outwit us here.


----------



## newfhouse (12 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m increasingly upset at the ‘it’s common sense’ approach.


Not just common sense, good solid British common sense.


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

I have a question for anyone who is happy with the stay alert idea.
Do you personally "stay alert" to other highly infectious diseases which are still around and have not gone away or just this one?


----------



## PK99 (12 May 2020)

newfhouse said:


> True, but there’s no enemy trying to outwit us here.



Not a sentient enmy but a devious one none the less:

https://www.france24.com/en/20200420-what-we-know-about-the-devious-coronavirus


----------



## marinyork (12 May 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52629213

Wuhan talks of testing entire population to battle the, so far small, second wave.


----------



## Rocky (12 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> I have a question for anyone who is happy with the stay alert idea.
> Do you personally "stay alert" to other highly infectious diseases which are still around and have not gone away or just this one?


If it's all down to good solid British common sense of the public, then there is no role for the government in this. We don't need centrally run, effective, testing. We don't need any public health guidance. We don't need centrally procured PPE. We certainly don't need a vaccine. The British public can be trusted and the government doesn't need to offer any further advice to citizens or employers.


----------



## Rocky (12 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52629213
> 
> Wuhan talks of testing entire population to battle the, so far small, second wave.


I'd settle for getting the results back from my first test, which was only (!) 10 days ago.........still not heard anything.


----------



## vickster (12 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> I have a question for anyone who is happy with the stay alert idea.
> Do you personally "stay alert" to *other highly infectious diseases which are still around and have not gone away *or just this one?


Such as? Personally, I've been vaccinated against most things as appropriate in the last 1-10 years (including MMR)


----------



## kingrollo (12 May 2020)

has anyone heard any guidance on when gyms will allowed to re open and any such guidelines ?


----------



## derrick (12 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Such as? Personally, I've been vaccinated against most things as appropriate in the last 1-10 years (including MMR)


Ah someone with common sense. Thats a breath of fresh air on here.


----------



## vickster (12 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> has anyone heard any guidance on when gyms will allowed to re open and any such guidelines ?


I’d say doubtful before July at the earliest when hairdressers etc might be able to open.
I doubt I’ll go back to a gym before this is all over. 
Pool for hydrotherapy perhaps


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> If it's all down to good solid British common sense of the public, then there is no role for the government in this. We don't need centrally run, effective, testing. We don't need any public health guidance. We don't need centrally procured PPE. We certainly don't need a vaccine. The British public can be trusted and the government doesn't need to offer any further advice to citizens or employers.



Oh so we are not now being issued with a magic ray gun after all ? I've just ordered some bling for mine too


----------



## Rocky (12 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Such as? Personally, I've been vaccinated against most things as appropriate in the last 1-10 years (including MMR)


Resistant forms of TB in inner city areas (a GP friend of my wife recently caught this). HIV. Malaria (yes, prophylaxis is available but people experience unpleasant side effects). Cytomegalovirus.


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> has anyone heard any guidance on when gyms will allowed to re open and any such guidelines ?


No but then again a lot of the guidelines issued have bit missing that are yet to arrive anyway. 
So no word yet but remember stay alert and you may find out.


----------



## brodiej (12 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I'd settle for getting the results back from my first test, which was only (!) 10 days ago.........still not heard anything.



Quite. Testing is the key here, allied to tracing

I don't think this is a complicated situation really.
Lockdown has slowed transmission but you can't come out of lockdown by just saying - ok let's come out of lockdown and stay alert.

The key now is testing/ tracing and isolating
Without a clear and well resourced system for these, we are just going to go straight back to a second wave

This article is a nice summary

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/11/britain-economy-coronavirus-deaths


----------



## PK99 (12 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Such as? Personally, I've been vaccinated against most things as appropriate in the last 1-10 years (including MMR)



For a recent (Feb) trip to Cuba we had Rabies vaccinations (all other travel vaccinations are up to date, including yellow fever) - but still avoided all contact with the many dogs and cats running free. We drank only bottled or filtered water. We checked for ticks and bites on jungle walks, we slathered on Deet. We avoided salads and ice in roadside stops.

We have flu jabs every year.

Never drink water from a hosepipe.


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

We don't need all this testing and trace stuff remember we have this now


----------



## PK99 (12 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> has anyone heard any guidance on when gyms will allowed to re open and any such guidelines ?



Page 21of the 50 pageer:

_*it is likely that reopening indoor public spaces and leisure facilities (such as gyms and cinemas), premises whose core purpose is social interaction (such as nightclubs), venues that attract large crowds (like sports stadia), and personal care establishments where close contact is inherent (like beauty salons) may only be fully possible significantly later depending on the reduction in numbers of infections *_


----------



## kingrollo (12 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> Page 21of the 50 pageer:
> 
> _*it is likely that reopening indoor public spaces and leisure facilities (such as gyms and cinemas), premises whose core purpose is social interaction (such as nightclubs), venues that attract large crowds (like sports stadia), and personal care establishments where close contact is inherent (like beauty salons) may only be fully possible significantly later depending on the reduction in numbers of infections *_


Cheers not soon then !!!


----------



## Rocky (12 May 2020)

My niece’s husband is a teacher and sent me this:






Don’t you just love teachers? (Sorry for the size but it's worth zooming in a bit and reading the comments)


----------



## MrGrumpy (12 May 2020)

I assumed the x axis was time however no timescale LMAO . Its crap isn't it !


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> My niece’s husband is a teacher and sent me this:
> 
> View attachment 521657
> 
> ...


It's been done in pen too to be fair I'd have added constitutive feedback the pictures are not badly done after all. 
Though my old science teacher would have put one line though it and thrown the book back at you. 
I wonder how Boris would manage using log graph paper?


----------



## newfhouse (12 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> Not a sentient enmy but a devious one none the less:
> 
> https://www.france24.com/en/20200420-what-we-know-about-the-devious-coronavirus


Even my dogs think anthropomorphism is nuts.


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> I assumed the x axis was time however no timescale LMAO . Its crap isn't it !



Remember they are being lead by the science.


----------



## PK99 (12 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> My niece’s husband is a teacher and sent me this:
> 
> View attachment 521657
> 
> ...



What a trite, glib, and self-satisfiedly smug response to a perfectly acceptable conceptual visualisation.


----------



## Rocky (12 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> What a trite, glib, and self-satisfiedly smug response to a perfectly acceptable conceptual visualisation.


Glad you enjoyed it.........what I love about the British is their sense of humour. What kept us going through WW2 and other dark times was our sense of humour. It's a shame some people seem to have lost that.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 May 2020)

So, given that meeting with one person outdoors is OK, presumably cycling with a mate is permitted?

Is that right?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (12 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m increasingly upset at the ‘it’s common sense’ approach.



It's another 'will of the people' & 'take back control' set up where the Tories will wash their hands of blame when stay alert fails.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (12 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So, given that meeting with one person outdoors is OK, presumably cycling with a mate is permitted?
> 
> Is that right?



The relevant section states that from Wednesday you can:
"•use outdoor sports courts or facilities, such as a tennis or basketball court, or golf course – with members of your household, or one other person while staying 2 metres apart".

Are the roads around us considered a sports facility?

It also says you may:
"•exercise outdoors as often as you wish - following social distancing guidelines", so does that allow it?

Who knows? But it's going to be your fault if you get it wrong. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


----------



## vickster (12 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So, given that meeting with one person outdoors is OK, presumably cycling with a mate is permitted?
> 
> Is that right?


Yes, as long as you social distance at all times  It was specifically mentioned in one report (no idea which, would have been BBC though)


----------



## lane (12 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So, given that meeting with one person outdoors is OK, presumably cycling with a mate is permitted?
> 
> Is that right?



Yes providing you can keep 2m apart.


----------



## marinyork (12 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So, given that meeting with one person outdoors is OK, presumably cycling with a mate is permitted?
> 
> Is that right?



It's upthread quoted in full.


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So, given that meeting with one person outdoors is OK, presumably cycling with a mate is permitted?
> 
> Is that right?



"People may exercise outside as many times each day as they wish. For example, this would include angling and tennis. You will still not be able to use areas like playgrounds, outdoor gyms or ticketed outdoor leisure venues, where there is a higher risk of close contact and touching surfaces. You can only exercise with up to one person from outside your household – this means you should not play team sports, except with members of your own household. " Pg 25 of the road map 

*1.7 Are there restrictions on how far I can travel for my exercise or outdoor activity?*
No. You can travel to outdoor open space irrespective of distance. You shouldn’t travel with someone from outside your household unless you can practise social distancing - for example by cycling. Leaving your home - the place you live - to stay at another home is not allowed. Q&A document 

More guidelines are due today about enforcement so that's not clear yet. 
Advice health wise is if you meet up that's it for the day. So ride out with one mate then later another is not currently seen as a good idea health wise. What's not clear is if you meet up then other member of your house hold can't do the something with someone else the same day. 

If you do social distancing is a must as is hand hygiene and don't share anything when out. If you have to help a mate out with a breakdown use your own tools and keep your mate well away.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 May 2020)

Sad

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/12/uk-rail-worker-dies-coronavirus-spat-belly-mujinga


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 May 2020)




----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Cycling uk has a Q & A which is live and updated 
https://www.cyclinguk.org/article/coronavirus-qa-it-safe-cycle#friend2
Helpfully it also cover's public health questions eg do I need to isolate if ....


----------



## Beebo (12 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Cheers not soon then !!!


Gyms have got to be one of the last places to reopen. Sweaty bodies breathing heavily isn’t somewhere I’d want to be. 
It would be impossible to clean the equipment and limit social distancing.


----------



## marinyork (12 May 2020)

Beebo said:


> Gyms have got to be one of the last places to reopen. Sweaty bodies breathing heavily isn’t somewhere I’d want to be.
> It would be impossible to clean the equipment and limit social distancing.



It was speculated last week in the press, who may have seen bits of the documents/heard what was said that gyms would be the last and it might be October.

However, this morning, there's a lot of debate around personal trainers and exercise outside. Outdoor gyms are already specifically prohibited at the moment. In the coming weeks it will need to be clarified. The gym I used to go to has already said this morning "we aren't a gym". Yes, you are.


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Sad
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/12/uk-rail-worker-dies-coronavirus-spat-belly-mujinga


So sad and pretty shocking now you can see why many police are calling Covid a weapon. 
As a minimum they are looking at racially aggravated assault.


----------



## Archie_tect (12 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> What a trite, glib, and self-satisfiedly smug response to a perfectly acceptable conceptual visualisation.


If you don't like it say so.


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> It was speculated last week in the press, who may have seen bits of the documents/heard what was said that gyms would be the last and it might be October.
> 
> However, this morning, there's a lot of debate around personal trainers and exercise outside. Outdoor gyms are already specifically prohibited at the moment. In the coming weeks it will need to be clarified. The gym I used to go to has already said this morning "we aren't a gym". Yes, you are.



Even if at some point they are able to open will they get used?
A small gym with small member numbers may have an easier time convincing people it's safe. The big mass number ones won't find it so easy I stopped going to mine weeks before they had to close because even then with little need for more than basic stuff. It was not a great place to be in. Some shops already open that have a lot less to think about are not exactly convincing on the "your safe in here" idea.


----------



## Archie_tect (12 May 2020)

It's all downhill from here...no back-pedalling.


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> It's all downhill from here...no back-pedalling.



They look to have hit a pot hole already.


----------



## fossyant (12 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> It's all downhill from here...no back-pedalling.



Only if you 'manual' down the hill (wheelie)


----------



## Archie_tect (12 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> They look to have hit a pot hole already.


At least someone helpfully marked the pot-hole with a big arrow.


----------



## Archie_tect (12 May 2020)

fossyant said:


> Only if you 'manual' down the hill (wheelie)


No show-boating please.


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> At least someone helpfully marked the pot-hole with a big arrow.


oh a work of fiction then


----------



## kingrollo (12 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> There are two people who keep on smoothing over everything's going to be all right, keep it simple, duplicating partial and vague chinese whispers of stuff I say, rather confusingly for others, because I'm on their ignore lists.


32,000 Dead in just over 3 months, no vaccine, no cure - its all about opinions of course, however people can smooth over that is beyond me. It already isn't OK imo.
Im trying to think that something must break in our favour - and we will avoid a 2nd wave - but thats just blind hope at the moment.


----------



## Rusty Nails (12 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> As of today at least 205 health care workers have died of Covid. See: nursingnotes.com
> 
> I am pleased you are fit and healthy and do not fear getting the infection. My wife has two HCP friends who have died of Covid. We know others who have spent time in ICU and even 4 weeks after discharge are unable to go back to work due to post-viral tiredness. Two of these are younger than you and both were audax cyclists. They used to ride 300 mile events. They are currently struggling to cycle round the block.
> 
> Your experience is valid for you. It is not the experience of others.



I read somewhere recently that NHS covid-19 related deaths in the UK broadly reflect the national average. I can't remember where I read it but it seems similar to the findings of this report i just found of a few weeks ago:

https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article

I must admit to some surprise at this, but I suppose it does reflect the effectiveness of PPE, and good hygiene protocols, when they can get hold of it.


----------



## kingrollo (12 May 2020)

Furlough extended until October. I didn't expect that.


----------



## Rocky (12 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I read somewhere recently that NHS covid-19 related deaths in the UK broadly reflect the national average. I can't remember where I read it but it seems similar to the findings of this report i just found of a few weeks ago:
> 
> https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article
> 
> I must admit to some surprise at this, but I suppose it does reflect the effectiveness of PPE, and good hygiene protocols, when they can get hold of it.


I think that's probably right - and I certainly don't have the stats to disagree. Our two friends were exposed to Covid through aerosolising procedures before this was recognised as dangerous. One was a GP and the other a general surgeon. Most HCPs understand the risks of getting infected at work but have been surprised by the contagiousness of Covid. Those who have been caring for Covid patients have also experienced death and a very unpleasant dying process of their patients. I suppose the double whammy of infection and psychological trauma has affected quite a number. I don't want to belittle the earlier poster's experiences but was keen to say that there are numbers of HCPs who have had a very different time dealing with the virus.


----------



## mjr (12 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> *We are all cyclists*.
> 
> *Cycling involves exposure to major hazards* potentially resulting in injury or death every time we get on our bikes:
> Collisions with other traffic.
> ...


Blimey. Why aren't you riding on quieter roads, how vicious are the pedestrians near you and how badly-maintained is your bike if those are *major* hazards *every* time you get on your bike?



PK99 said:


> *The only way of being a completely safe cyclist is to lock up and never ride your bike.*


Then by definition, you wouldn't be a cyclist, m'lud. And unless you are doing nothing else instead (see past comments about the surge in DIY injuries during lockdown), then you may be less safe. And if you do nothing, inactivity may pose a greater risk than cycling, so you're still not completely safe.



PK99 said:


> *How do we stay acceptably safe?*
> 
> We *STAY ALERT* to the hazards, and in doing so minimise our probability of having an accident and thereby keep our risk to an acceptable level.


No, I really don't. I'm sometimes pretty dozy as I cycle along - and a few times not by choice (where picking the bike was also because it makes me less dangerous to others than if I drove). If I've managed the risks by cycling on a well-maintained bike on a nice route and I don't pick fights with walkers, there's not much I need to be alert to - basically, I need to be mildly alert at junctions. I know some people on here are adrenaline junkies who ride in extreme ways and enjoy jousting with motorists, but I really can't be doing with that shoot any more.

Screaming "go on, you can cycle down the A10, just stay alert!" is not a way to get more people cycling more, although it has been the cornerstone of government's approach to cycling for as long as I've been alive. It's a shame if they're going to use the same shoot approach for the covid crisis now.


----------



## theclaud (12 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Furlough extended until October. I didn't expect that.


"Workers will, *through the combined efforts of government and employers*, continue to receive the same level of support as they do now, at 80% of their salary."


----------



## kingrollo (12 May 2020)

theclaud said:


> "Workers will, *through the combined efforts of government and employers*, continue to receive the same level of support as they do now, at 80% of their salary."



Ah right - so employers have choice they furlough workers but pay some of their salary - call them back in, part time or full time ....or I suppose make them redundant.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> 32,000 Dead in just over 3 months, no vaccine, no cure - its all about opinions of course, however people can smooth over that is beyond me. It already isn't OK imo.
> Im trying to think that something must break in our favour - and we will avoid a 2nd wave - but thats just blind hope at the moment.



Blind hope, and believing something will break in our favour has been govt policy to date. It hasn't worked so well.

Rather, we should:
- Suppress hard (keep the lockdown) until numbers are low enough to test and trace
- test and trace to suppress the virus, which allows loosening of social distancing
- research treatments, vaccines, transmission routes etc.

(this is my recollection of the WHO strategy, not just my own thoughts. Can't find a link right now)


----------



## mjr (12 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I’m increasingly upset at the ‘it’s common sense’ approach. This puts the blame onto the victim. If I catch Covid and, heaven forbid, die, it’s my fault because I didn’t demonstrate common sense and wasn’t alert enough.


See the medium link I posted yesterday. It does seem like part of the move to a "Consumer" story which places the blame on you for choosing bad things which result in your death, away from the previous narrative of a war or battle which the heroic government now risks being blamed for losing due to stuff like the PPE debacle or the testing number-fiddling, and trying to avoid the alternative narrative of a "Citizen" story where we need to work together in the face of a massive common threat and government may be blamed for not working.


----------



## All uphill (12 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Resistant forms of TB in inner city areas (a GP friend of my wife recently caught this). HIV. Malaria (yes, prophylaxis is available but people experience unpleasant side effects). Cytomegalovirus.


I'm also aware of Legionnaires disease, having worked in a building that could have been designed to help it propagate.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 May 2020)

theclaud said:


> "Workers will, *through the combined efforts of government and employers*, continue to receive the same level of support as they do now, at 80% of their salary."



Ha! In every silver lining there has to be a cloud. Absolute Tory scum, paying worker's wages until August and then having the bare-faced cheek to expect the private sector to start sharing the cost. Have they no shame?



> Mr Sunak confirmed that employees will continue to receive 80% of their monthly wages up to £2,500.
> 
> But he said the government will ask companies to "start sharing" the cost of the scheme from August onwards.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52634759


----------



## mjr (12 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> Fact is, we have to get out of lockdown. Naysaying kibitsing contributes nothing to the solution.


I agree, but people have been putting forwards alternative plans, including the World farking Health Organisation, and all other plans seem to be being basically ignored in favour of this bull shoot DEFCON-style totem pole with an open-and-pray plan (that looks based on business-friendly dogma more than science) drawn onto a zero-truncated Poisson distribution curve which is very unlikely. Where were the discussions of the alternative plans? Would anyone like to try posting a solid argument against test-and-trace?


----------



## lane (12 May 2020)

Now you can cycle with a different person everyday but at 2m.


----------



## mjr (12 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Ha! In every silver lining there has to be a cloud. Absolute Tory scum, paying worker's wages until August and then having the bare-faced cheek to expect the private sector to start sharing the cost. Have they no shame?


Where exactly do they think closed businesses are going to find money to share the cost of paying non-workers? The ones who are only part-closed would need to be stonkingly profitable in the rest of their businesses to do so and I suspect most aren't.


----------



## PK99 (12 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I read somewhere recently that NHS covid-19 related deaths in the UK broadly reflect the national average. I can't remember where I read it but it seems similar to the findings of this report i just found of a few weeks ago:
> 
> https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article
> 
> I must admit to some surprise at this, but I suppose it does reflect the effectiveness of PPE, and good hygiene protocols, when they can get hold of it.



Long report with some jaw dropping observations:

_"However, the NHS is estimated to employ approximately 1.2-1.5 million staff, including more than 120,000 doctors, approximately 300,000 nurses and a similar number of healthcare support workers. A modest estimate of the patient-facing NHS workforce might be 600,000-800,000, which is more than 1 per cent of the UK population and more than 2 per cent of the employed population.

There is also a remarkable correlation between the cumulative UK deaths from covid-19 in the UK population and among health and social care workers. Accepting a lag of one to two days, the ratio is very close to 1:200 so the deaths among health and social care workers are approximately 0.5 per cent of all deaths, suggesting they are not overrepresented.

*Although there are caveats to this estimate — explained below — and every death is one to be mourned, the data does not clearly show that healthcare workers are dying at rates proportionately higher than other employed individuals or even the population as a whole. Again, this is cautiously reassuring.*_



> _A modest estimate of the patient-facing NHS workforce might be 600,000-800,000 which is more than 1 per cent of the UK population and more than 2 per cent of the employed population_


_The distribution of deaths by occupation among nurses, healthcare support workers and doctors is broadly consistent with employment ratios. Distribution of deaths by geographical region correlates well with known regional distribution of cases."_

....
_"Our report shows that a significant number of health and social care workers are dying during this pandemic. *Overall the rate of deaths appears to be largely consistent with the number of healthcare workers in the population and the distributions by occupation and geography are largely as expected. However, individuals of black and minority ethnicity are notably over-represented in the data and conversely those working in the high risk specialties of anaesthesia and intensive care appear to be under-represented, most likely through good practice.*

To further understand this data, there is an urgent need for a central registry of deaths among health and social care workers to establish facts, enable robust rapid analysis and to explore whether social or employment inequalities are impacting on the rates of infection of these staff during the conduct of their duties and causing avoidable deaths"_


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think that's probably right - and I certainly don't have the stats to disagree. Our two friends were exposed to Covid through aerosolising procedures before this was recognised as dangerous. One was a GP and the other a general surgeon. Most HCPs understand the risks of getting infected at work but have been surprised by the contagiousness of Covid. Those who have been caring for Covid patients have also experienced death and a very unpleasant dying process of their patients. I suppose the double whammy of infection and psychological trauma has affected quite a number. I don't want to belittle the earlier poster's experiences but was keen to say that there are numbers of HCPs who have had a very different time dealing with the virus.



We may never know if it could have been a lot different as unlike other work related deaths they are not being investigated by HSE. 
One of the deaths we know about has been but only due to a lot of fuss from others that got too loud for management to ignore.


----------



## mjr (12 May 2020)

lane said:


> Now you can cycle with a different person everyday but at 2m.


1m cyclist dynamic envelope + 2m clearance + 1m cyclist dynamic envelope + 1.5m minimum overtaking clearance + 2m car width = 7.5m

UK Design Manual for Roads and Bridges standard single-carriageway road width = 7.3m

Basically, motorists can no longer legally overtake cyclists on a standard UK A road unless the cyclists go single file, even if they drive right up to the right edge of the road. This could get interesting.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Where exactly do they think closed businesses are going to find money to share the cost of paying non-workers? The ones who are only part-closed would need to be stonkingly profitable in the rest of their businesses to do so and I suspect most aren't.



Or you could look at where he said companies could bring people back part-time but continue the furlough, which is an excellent idea both for the economy and the mental health of people who will have been locked indoors for 5 months by then.

We're talking about a Tory government paying 7 million worker's wages for 5 months at 80% and continuing in some form for another 3. At least.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (12 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I read somewhere recently that NHS covid-19 related deaths in the UK broadly reflect the national average. I can't remember where I read it but it seems similar to the findings of this report i just found of a few weeks ago:
> 
> https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article
> 
> I must admit to some surprise at this, but I suppose it does reflect the effectiveness of PPE, and good hygiene protocols, when they can get hold of it.


At a first glance it looks like the health worker fatality rate is similar to the overall population. However, if you exclude pensioners and those in poor health you will find that hospital workers are at substantially higher risk.


----------



## theclaud (12 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Ha! In every silver lining there has to be a cloud. Absolute Tory scum, paying worker's wages until August and then having the bare-faced cheek to expect the private sector to start sharing the cost. Have they no shame?
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52634759


Feel free to go off on one, by all means - all I did was quote Sunak's words...


----------



## lane (12 May 2020)

mjr said:


> 1m cyclist dynamic envelope + 2m clearance + 1m cyclist dynamic envelope + 1.5m minimum overtaking clearance + 2m car width = 7.5m
> 
> UK Design Manual for Roads and Bridges standard single-carriageway road width = 7.3m
> 
> Basically, motorists can no longer legally overtake cyclists on a standard UK A road unless the cyclists go single file, even if they drive right up to the right edge of the road. This could get interesting.



Good point. Safer side by side 2m apart than in single file from an infection point of view.


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## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Today is International Nurses Day as all the events have been cancelled
To mark it people are being asked to ‘shine a light’ for Nurses by put a light your window at 8.30pm.
Both as a little thank you and a moment to remember the 65 nurses (we know about) have died from Covid.
So if you see one today be nice and give them wave.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=WJSiIhphvLw&feature=emb_logo


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## marinyork (12 May 2020)

Guidance needs updating fast. One local organisation with the best of intentions is saying it wants to use the 1 external person guidance under step 1 to offer services all day long by having one member of staff rotate different people .


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## tom73 (12 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Guidance needs updating fast. One local organisation with the best of intentions is saying it wants to use the 1 external person guidance under step 1 to offer services all day long by having one member of staff rotate different people .


Oh dear


----------



## lane (12 May 2020)

One thing confusing me, perhaps the more expert on here can explain. Whitty saying we may never get a vaccine and we don't know if people will have immunity from the virus. I know he was also a great advocate of herd immunity early on - so exactly how was he anticipating that would work without people becoming immune?


----------



## PK99 (12 May 2020)

lane said:


> One thing confusing me, perhaps the more expert on here can explain. Whitty saying we may never get a vaccine and we don't know if people will have immunity from the virus. I know he was also a great advocate of herd immunity early on - so exactly how was he anticipating that would work without people becoming immune?



He believes we will get a vaccine - but, as a scientist, recognises that we may not. Similarly while there is no rigorous demonstration of post infection immunity he must caveat his statement on that also, despite believing it to be the case.

With no Vaccine, no immunity after infection and no effective treatment, it really would be Armageddon for all societies as we know them. 
Maybe James Lovelock's Gaia is at work reducing the world population, resetting us to a simpler way of life and solving the climate crisis and overpopulation in one fell swoop.


----------



## lane (12 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> He believes we will get a vaccine - but, as a scientist, recognises that we may not. Similarly while there is no rigorous demonstration of post infection immunity he must caveat his statement on that also, despite believing it to be the case.
> 
> With no Vaccine, no immunity after infection and no effective treatment, it really would be Armageddon for all societies as we know them.
> Maybe James Lovelock's Gaia is at work reducing the world population, resetting us to a simpler way of life and solving the climate crisis and overpopulation in one fell swoop.



Yes but that doesn't really answer my question. If he can't be certain of immunity how could he be an advocate of herd immunity?


----------



## marinyork (12 May 2020)

lane said:


> Yes but that doesn't really answer my question. If he can't be certain of immunity how could he be an advocate of herd immunity?



Studying similar and many other pandemics it is likely some limited level of immunity exists. How long that lasts no one knows. Serious studies are being conducted in germany and the UK and may be published the next couple of months on initial immunity.

PHE is next door to the defence science and technology lab. Whitty and Vallance said they have evidence that there is a small amount of immunity (in march). It's believed tests have been carried out at said lab to confirm this, but not published for national security reasons.

Never getting a vaccine is because coronavirus is regarded as a technically difficult family of viruses to devise a vaccine for.


----------



## kingrollo (12 May 2020)

lane said:


> One thing confusing me, perhaps the more expert on here can explain. Whitty saying we may never get a vaccine and we don't know if people will have immunity from the virus. I know he was also a great advocate of herd immunity early on - so exactly how was he anticipating that would work without people becoming immune?



I would think he made the assumption that there would be immunity after infection & recovery.


----------



## lane (12 May 2020)

Betting everything on something not verified doesn't seem a great idea leaving aside it turned out to be a discredited policy otherwise. If I were Whitty I wouldn't be relishing the forthcoming inquiry.


----------



## kingrollo (12 May 2020)

lane said:


> Betting everything on something not verified doesn't seem a great idea leaving aside it turned out to be a discredited policy otherwise. If I were Whitty I wouldn't be relishing the forthcoming inquiry.


I think the word "degree" might get him out of a hole.


----------



## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Did I hear the government muppet right on the briefing. 
So you know your workplace or shop you in is comply with guidelines they can download a sign saying so and display it with no need to prove it. Ok can't think what may go wrong with that one.


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## mjr (12 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Did I hear the government muppet right on the briefing.
> So you know your workplace or shop you in is comply with guidelines they can download a sign saying so and display it with no need to prove it. Ok can't think what may go wrong with that one.


Does a headdesk a day keep the covid away?


----------



## marinyork (12 May 2020)

80% of traffic levels out there.

Good daily briefing today, well relatively.


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## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Where are all the HSE inspectors going to come from to enforce all the new standards ?


----------



## marinyork (12 May 2020)

lane said:


> Betting everything on something not verified doesn't seem a great idea leaving aside it turned out to be a discredited policy otherwise. If I were Whitty I wouldn't be relishing the forthcoming inquiry.



Herd immunity as a long term strategy isn't discredited at all yet. It's the only long term strategy there is. Short term strategies it's no use whatsoever.

The government haven't helped themselves. I do wish they would publish in more detail the evidence and thoughts on how children spread/susceptible to the virus and modeling on schools. The sage advice should have been published earlier.

Enquiries could focus on testing and things like whether London should have been restricted a week and a half earlier. Whatever went on in care homes and the lack of government support there.

If a vaccine is impossible, then by that time quite a lot of information will be known about the virus having failed to find a vaccine multiple times. That information will be useful. Apocalyptic scenarios might be that a lot of more sophisticated work goes into shielding a small percentage of the population and genetic testing. Other nightmare scenarios are it takes so long to make a vaccine that significant mutation has occurred. A more likely scenario might be a vaccine offers some immunity but doesn't perform as well as wanted, this does happen for strains on flu vaccines.


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## tom73 (12 May 2020)

New Safer travel guidelines 

"You should avoid using public transport where possible. Instead try to walk, cycle, or drive. If you do travel, thinking carefully about the times, routes and ways you travel will mean we will all have more space to stay safe."
*What to take with you*

a plan for my journey
contactless payment card or pass
phone (if needed for travel updates, tickets, contactless payments)
tickets
hand sanitiser
essential medicines
tissues
a face covering, if required
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-safer-travel-guidance-for-passengers
https://assets.publishing.service.g...7/passenger-guidance-infographic-document.pdf


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## mjr (12 May 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/Simon_Pegg/status/1260207485849403398


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## Tanis8472 (12 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> "People may exercise outside as many times each day as they wish. For example, this would include angling and tennis. You will still not be able to use areas like playgrounds, outdoor gyms or ticketed outdoor leisure venues, where there is a higher risk of close contact and touching surfaces. You can only exercise with up to one person from outside your household – this means you should not play team sports, except with members of your own household. " Pg 25 of the road map
> 
> *1.7 Are there restrictions on how far I can travel for my exercise or outdoor activity?*
> No. You can travel to outdoor open space irrespective of distance. You shouldn’t travel with someone from outside your household unless you can practise social distancing - for example by cycling. Leaving your home - the place you live - to stay at another home is not allowed. Q&A document
> ...



Since when was angling a exercise!


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## mjr (12 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Since when was angling a exercise!


When you get pulled into the drink by a vicious pike?

And while I'm here:

View: https://twitter.com/Simon_Pegg/status/1259443923736543232


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## Rickshaw Phil (12 May 2020)

Cycling over Lyth Hill today I see that the lower car park was full. First time I've seen it like that since the crisis started.

A taste of how people are going to react when the restrictions are lifted tomorrow?


----------



## Inertia (12 May 2020)




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## mjr (12 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> View attachment 521790


Or more likely he does, but doesn't want to say they're both risky but guarding children is more valuable to the nation than your relatives' happiness.


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## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Since when was angling a exercise!


Think to save paper they have combined activities good for mental health into one definition of exercise.


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## deptfordmarmoset (12 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Think to save paper they have combined activities good for mental health into one definition of exercise.


Playing furlough the leader would be good for my mental health. I doubt if I'd be alone.


----------



## Shut Up Legs (12 May 2020)

I just had a thought (I don't know if it deserves a separate thread?): while people around the world are patting themselves on the back and congratulating themselves on the drop in greenhouse gas emissions due to fewer trips by plane, train, car, etc., there has also been a significant increase in computer use, which is a major contributor to greenhouse gases. There seems to be a lot of anecdotal evidence worldwide of air pollution lowering, however, so I guess the net effect of the coronavirus is still to reduce greenhouse gases.


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## tom73 (12 May 2020)

Full update of changers to covid regulations as put to parliament. In short the law effective from tomorrow.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/500/pdfs/uksi_20200500_en.pdf


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## slowmotion (12 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Since when was angling a exercise!


I haven't noticed great pelotons of anglers grouping together in close proximity. Have you?


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## Ming the Merciless (12 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Think to save paper they have combined activities good for mental health into one definition of exercise.



Thinks it’s now classed as outdoor recreation rather than exercise. So angling comes under outdoor recreation. As do BBQs!


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## Rusty Nails (12 May 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I haven't noticed great pelotons of anglers grouping together in close proximity. Have you?


Tbf it would be an exaggeration to call some of the groups of cyclists in club kits that I see around here pelotons. Most of them seemed to have been social distancing before it was invented.


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## tom73 (12 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Thinks it’s now classed as outdoor recreation rather than exercise. So angling comes under outdoor recreation. As do BBQs!


 Your right I was not alert enough in my post


----------



## slowmotion (12 May 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Tbf it would be an exaggeration to call some of the groups of cyclists in club kits that I see around here pelotons. Most of them seemed to have been social distancing before it was invented.


Fair enough. I was merely suggesting that angling tends to be a fairly solitary occupation, not least because if it wasn't, there would be a lot more people snagged by hooks during casting.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Your right I was not alert enough in my post



Stay Yurt


----------



## marinyork (12 May 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-at-risk-from-covid-19-if-forced-back-to-work

Article on 8 million less vulnerable workers based on researched published in the lancet.


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 May 2020)

Broadside said:


> Apparently from tomorrow in England you can cycle with one person from outside your household providing you observe 2m social distancing. I must admit I didn’t expect this to be the case.


You would not want to follow me at 10 metres, my post nasal drip would see you off as you rode through the fine cloud of it.


----------



## tom73 (13 May 2020)

Queues forming around local golf club.... It starting


----------



## Mo1959 (13 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Queues forming around local golf club.... It starting


I honestly think lockdown is gradually ending with or without the government's input!


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 May 2020)

I tried to avoid going to town until the expected demob fever had calmed down but I needed titanium samples to check an update on an XRF gun so I went to the metals warehouse. 
Things have changed, I used to wander in and browse through the stocks looking for what I wanted, not anymore. 
Barriers and tape across the warehouse entrance and it took some persuading to have the manager let me through to find and check materials of my choice. 
I see that getting on with work is going to be very slow when interactions are required but it's early days and as people get used to procedures perhaps things will ease. 
I trawled through town to reccy what shops had opened and what provisions they had laid on to protect people. 
Some shops refused entry unless you had a mask, one place had a box of blue vinyl gloves at the entrance too. 
All the places I viewed had big bottles of alcohol gel at the entrance. Also the stores with an obvious route had marked one way routes with arrows on the floor. 
There was a lot of people in town and I guess a combination of wanting some normality and some pent up demand to replace broken or worn out gear made it busy. 
People seemed to be very cautious and I think more than half wore masks. 
Shopping has definitely got more difficult. 
On a good note the specialist beer shop V&B was open, they had a fridge full of Belgium and German beers past use by date reduced by 50%, being selfish and greedy I bought the entire stock. 
Parks are open again so I will visit the rose gardens of the beautiful park in Descartes on Sunday. The market there is set to open but I don't see how it can work, there is a defile, a choke point on the street, perhaps another one way system with a diversion will be in place. All so tricky and difficult. 
The prices of some fresh produce have definitely increased. At this time of the year the sun loving veg are generally pricier as they come from Spain and Italy but there is certainly an increase in price that does not reflect one year of inflation. 
In 6 weeks most of the supermarket produce will be home grown and it remains to be seen if the price trend will continue.


----------



## mjr (13 May 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I honestly think lockdown is gradually ending with or without the government's input!


Outdoor sports courses have been allowed by government, so I'm not sure why a rush of golfers is to be condemned. It was obviously going to happen, same as the streets in other countries where exercise cycling was banned saw a flurry when it was allowed again.


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Queues forming around local golf club.... It starting


How do you tell the difference between a queue and a game of golf, they're both so slow?


----------



## Mo1959 (13 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Outdoor sports courses have been allowed by government, so I'm not sure why a rush of golfers is to be condemned. It was obviously going to happen, same as the streets in other countries where exercise cycling was banned saw a flurry when it was allowed again.


Not really criticising the golf. I actually think it's a great hobby that will allow good social distancing.........more just a general view of things starting to slip. Traffic has picked up drastically around here. People are getting more relaxed and complacent in supermarkets too I think.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 May 2020)

Rickshaw Phil said:


> Cycling over Lyth Hill today I see that the lower car park was full. First time I've seen it like that since the crisis started.
> 
> A taste of how people are going to react when the restrictions are lifted tomorrow?




Here's some of that good, solid British common sense Mr Johnson was talking about:

Coronavirus: Holiday park booking requests surge [BBC link]

_Laurie Clark, general manager of Golden Sands in Rhyl, said some callers did not believe the different rules._​_"When we try to give clarity, saying the lockdown measures are different in Wales, some people were fine, some were more argumentative._​​_"They were saying, 'Why is this? Boris is PM for UK; why is it a different rule for Wales?'_​​_"They didn't understand that the Welsh government were involved, or it was different in Scotland as well._​​_"They felt entitled to visit their holiday home, which they pay thousands for."_​​_Mr Clark said as well as the 40 calls on Monday there were also about 30 or 40 emails._​​_North Wales police and crime commissioner Arfon Jones said the confusion over lockdown easing was a "total shambles" and could cause an influx of visitors to north Wales._​


----------



## tom73 (13 May 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I honestly think lockdown is gradually ending with or without the government's input!



Apparently part of the reopening requirement is they have to set up a prebook process to allow only so many it at once. 
But no one is policing it so it's pointless.
I think your right about lockdown I only went to one shop yesterday afternoon. Normal not a problem it was like a mad house as if people think it's all ok now. I can't think who gave them that idea


----------



## DCLane (13 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Queues forming around local golf club.... It starting



I live opposite a golf club: flags are in the holes and players are out.


----------



## PK99 (13 May 2020)

DCLane said:


> I live opposite a golf club: flags are in the holes and players are out.



I don't see a problem with golf - distance between players is the normal pattern in play. Bars etc remain closed.


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> I don't see a problem with golf - distance between players is the normal pattern in play. Bars etc remain closed.


And it keeps them off the streets.

The only problem could be if they handle each other's balls.


----------



## DCLane (13 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> I don't see a problem with golf - distance between players is the normal pattern in play. Bars etc remain closed.



It's fine with me. Some are clearly out of practice; if they mis-time the chip to the 4th hole their ball goes over the fence and down my drive. I'm 3 balls to the good already this morning


----------



## tom73 (13 May 2020)

Updated police guidelines. 
https://www.college.police.uk/What-...lations-Amendments-England-changes-130520.pdf
They can't enforce social distancing great that's just we need right now.


----------



## tom73 (13 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> I don't see a problem with golf - distance between players is the normal pattern in play. Bars etc remain closed.



Being on the green is not the problem. It's getting them to green and enforcing social distancing and other measures that's the problem.
The more we normalise things the more people forget and things slip. It's just a matter of time and the virus will be back in force.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Being on the green is not the problem. It's getting them to green and enforcing social distancing and other measures that's the problem.
> The we normalise things the more people forget and things slip. It's just a matter of time and the virus will be back in force.


Which might just be the plan.


----------



## tom73 (13 May 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52645366
Not only did we run head long into this mess we are doing it all over again


----------



## matticus (13 May 2020)

The lockdown has been loosened. Of course there will be more traffic, and more people on the street doing "normal" things.
(There are many things I'm not allowed to do, so please don't tell me that lockdown is over.)

At some point we need to let go of bitching about anybody we see doing something different to us.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 May 2020)

Shock as Jacob Rees-Mogg behaves like an utter prick with zero regard for the consequences of his actions on others. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...set-example-and-return-to-commons-coronavirus

Conservative voters: this is what you voted for. It's not a surprise. Please take note in future?


----------



## lane (13 May 2020)

matticus said:


> The lockdown has been loosened. Of course there will be more traffic, and more people on the street doing "normal" things.
> (There are many things I'm not allowed to do, so please don't tell me that lockdown is over.)
> 
> At some point we need to let go of bitching about anybody we see doing something different to us.



I was just going to post something similar.

I am more concerned where people have no option regrading social distancing such as going to work on public transport or working in unsafe environments than playing golf or buying a bag of compost.

There are now some things you can't do and some you can which makes sense as a gradual process of lifting the lockdown after 6 weeks even if Boris has managed to cock it up somewhat. 

We have 1 in 400 people infected now and in two weeks it is supposed to reduce to 1 in 800. We shall see.

My son is going to meet a friend in the park tomorrow and I am glad he is able to do so within the guidelines which has has religiously stuck to for the past 6 weeks which is probably a long time when you are 16.


----------



## tom73 (13 May 2020)

Simple and to the point fabric mask mistakes maybe handy if you have kids. 
@Johnno260


----------



## lane (13 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52645366
> Not only did we run head long into this mess we are doing it all over again





tom73 said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52645366
> Not only did we run head long into this mess we are doing it all over again



We have a lot more controls in place than when the virus spread preciously: Pubs, clubs, cafes, hairdressers closed. Lots more people working from home. People still not at work. Sports suspended. No mass gatherings. Schools closed. No group cycling. No Audax. Obviously all these things will have an impact in slowing the spread of the virus which is now at low levels in the community.


----------



## vickster (13 May 2020)

On mask wearing...


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (13 May 2020)

vickster said:


> On mask wearing...
> 
> View attachment 521912


Is there one for women?


----------



## tom73 (13 May 2020)

lane said:


> We have a lot more controls in place than when the virus spread preciously: Pubs, clubs, cafes, hairdressers closed. Lots more people working from home. People still not at work. Sports suspended. No mass gatherings. Schools closed. No group cycling. No Audax. Obviously all these things will have an impact in slowing the spread of the virus which is now at low levels in the community.



Sadly we don't really know what the true community level is we've still not testing sorted let alone the tracing.


----------



## vickster (13 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Is there one for women?


No need... We’ve sussed out how to wear a mask (and our undies) correctly


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 May 2020)

vickster said:


> No need... We’ve sussed out how to wear a mask (and our undies) correctly



Exactly..


----------



## kingrollo (13 May 2020)

lane said:


> I was just going to post something similar.
> 
> I am more concerned where people have no option regrading social distancing such as going to work on public transport or working in unsafe environments than playing golf or buying a bag of compost.
> 
> ...



I don't how the infection rate will go down if we ease lockdown ? - I thought the question would be how quickly does it speed up ?


----------



## mjr (13 May 2020)

vickster said:


> On mask wearing...
> 
> View attachment 521912


Yeah, that can go fark itself while I'm cycling. I'm breathing hard and only breathing in through my nose, but having my mask up over my nose as well and fogging my glasses would be a lot more dangerous to everyone. When I go indoors, I cover my nose and uncover my ears.


----------



## lane (13 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I don't how the infection rate will go down if we ease lockdown ? - I thought the question would be how quickly does it speed up ?



Providing the infamous "R" is below 1 the number of people infected will go down, even if "R" goes up as long as it does no go above 1.


----------



## lane (13 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sadly we don't really know what the true community level is we've still not testing sorted let alone the tracing.



Given testing levels and hospital admissions and the sample testing carried out i guess they have an estimate which may not be exact.


----------



## mjr (13 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Simple and to the point fabric mask mistakes maybe handy if you have kids.
> @Johnno260
> 
> 
> View attachment 521906


That's another one which contains a few WTFs. Like "Leaving gaps"? Honestly! Cloth face coverings are not surgical masks and are not going to form tight seals, so little gaps are not going to undermine the halving or more that they do to the virus distribution. Another point on that chart is that the general public shouldn't be using N95 or surgical masks - you know, the ones which don't leave gaps. You literally can't win with that chart. Is it a demotivational confusion poster promoted by an anti-public-mask bobber?


----------



## MrGrumpy (13 May 2020)

vickster said:


> On mask wearing...
> 
> View attachment 521912


Is going commando the same as not wearing a mask


----------



## MrGrumpy (13 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Another point on that chart is that the general public shouldn't be using N95 or surgical masks - you know, the ones which don't leave gaps.



Here here, not sure when my Mrs is able to reopen her Podiatry clinic as getting proper masks is proving very hard unless of course you pay the hugely inflated prices around today.


----------



## vickster (13 May 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Here here, not sure when my Mrs is able to reopen her Podiatry clinic as getting proper masks is proving very hard unless of course you pay the hugely inflated prices around today.


I don't think private clinics are able to open yet anyhow, in any area?

I've certainly had no update from the physio clinics I use


----------



## tom73 (13 May 2020)

Maybe instead of having a go read the evidence and thinking behind fabric face covering in helping control the virus. 
Then maybe you'd see that the public don't need to have close fitting ones and small gap is better than no mask at all. 
As for it being anti mask that would be a bit odd as it's from a group coordinating community made PPE. 
Thanks for explaining about clinical masks but i've worn plenty over the years and trained a few along the way to know how they fit.


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## kingrollo (13 May 2020)

lane said:


> Providing the infamous "R" is below 1 the number of people infected will go down, even if "R" goes up as long as it does no go above 1.



but surely R will go above 1 - if its approx 0.7 now - after six weeks of lockdown, I would have thought as we relax lockdown infections will go up - at some point pushing r above 1 ? - I thought the question was when not if ?


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## MrGrumpy (13 May 2020)

vickster said:


> I don't think private clinics are able to open yet anyhow, in any area?
> 
> I've certainly had no update from the physio clinics I use



I think her governing body said it might be ok, anyway wont be happening up here till Sco Gov say its ok and PPE is plentiful for her !


----------



## theclaud (13 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> *I don't see a problem with golf* - distance between players is the normal pattern in play. Bars etc remain closed.



I do. Well not so much the game itself and the terrible clothes - each to their own - but the politics of it. Since the restrictions came in, golf courses have effectively become public parks. They still are in Wales for now. I guess now in England it's back to red-faced people in weird trousers shouting at anyone who deviates an inch from the footpath. Allegedly, the district of Woking is 11% golf course. Shockingly, that's not even the worst thing about Woking.


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## alicat (13 May 2020)

^^^ I've so enjoyed walking on my local municipal golf course since lockdown started. Easily the most beautiful part of the part that it is part of. I'm sad to think that it is now out of bounds.


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## kingrollo (13 May 2020)

vickster said:


> I don't think private clinics are able to open yet anyhow, in any area?
> 
> I've certainly had no update from the physio clinics I use



They can open - but I wouldn't think many will given the guidance from CSP:-

_You must engage your patients in discussions regarding the rationale for remote or face-to-face consultations. If both parties deem it necessary to proceed with face-to-face care, the patient should be made aware of all current risks associated with this approach. They must give their consent and you must document these discussions and the outcome. _

https://www.csp.org.uk/news/coronav...face-or-remote-consultations/guidance-england


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## matticus (13 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> but surely R will go above 1 - if its approx 0.7 now - after six weeks of lockdown, I would have thought as we relax lockdown infections will go up - at some point pushing r above 1 ? - I thought the question was when not if ?


It's not a definite "when"; there are things holding it down. For one thing, the dreaded H**d I**unity will have some effect.

As I have zero _actual _numbers to hand I don't intend to debate them here :P But ask yourself this; if R will ALWAYS go back above 1, how can we EVER hope to come out of Lockdown?


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## kingrollo (13 May 2020)

theclaud said:


> I do. Well not so much the game itself and the terrible clothes - each to their own - but the politics of it. Since the restrictions came in, golf courses have effectively become public parks. They still are in Wales for now. I guess now in England it's back to red-faced people in weird trousers shouting at anyone who deviates an inch from the footpath. Allegedly, the district of Woking is 11% golf course. Shockingly, that's not even the worst thing about Woking.



My bro insists golf is good exercise and points to the number of people who have heart attacks on golf courses as evidence ! - I haven't dared to suggest its probably due to the number of overweight golfers !


----------



## kingrollo (13 May 2020)

matticus said:


> It's not a definite "when"; there are things holding it down. For one thing, the dreaded H**d I**unity will have some effect.
> 
> As I have zero _actual _numbers to hand I don't intend to debate them here :P But ask yourself this; *if R will ALWAYS go back above 1, how can we EVER hope to come out of Lockdown?*



I don't know !!!! 
I suppose thats a precise way of expressing the question I was asking !!!!

My (probably wrong ) feeling is that we know r will at some point go above 1 - but are hoping it doesn't.


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## vickster (13 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> They can open - but I wouldn't think many will given the guidance from CSP:-
> 
> _You must engage your patients in discussions regarding the rationale for remote or face-to-face consultations. If both parties deem it necessary to proceed with face-to-face care, the patient should be made aware of all current risks associated with this approach. They must give their consent and you must document these discussions and the outcome. _
> 
> https://www.csp.org.uk/news/coronav...face-or-remote-consultations/guidance-england


No indeed, I really need a sports massage but that’s not going to happen remotely!
Also due to see the rheumatologist, ditto not a lot of point paying for a phone or video call


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## kingrollo (13 May 2020)

vickster said:


> No indeed, I really need a sports massage but that’s not going to happen remotely!
> Also due to see the rheumatologist, ditto not a lot of point paying for a phone or video call



Yeah same. Im sure I could find a physio open - but just wouldn't fancy it right now.


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## vickster (13 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yeah same. Im sure I could find a physio open - but just wouldn't fancy it right now.


Mine are doing video consults but I need a good pummelling!

I'd be fine to have a massage if they do open however as they'll certainly be diligent about hygiene


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## PK99 (13 May 2020)

alicat said:


> ^^^ I've so enjoyed walking on my local municipal golf course since lockdown started. * Easily the most beautiful part of the part that it is part of. * I'm sad to think that it is now out of bounds.



I partly understand what you mean.


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## lane (13 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> but surely R will go above 1 - if its approx 0.7 now - after six weeks of lockdown, I would have thought as we relax lockdown infections will go up - at some point pushing r above 1 ? - I thought the question was when not if ?



The plan isn't for it to go over 1 but it might do. On the other hand with a hell of a lot of restrictions still in place it might not. The scientists are saying that currently the number of people infected is halving every two weeks because R is below 1.


----------



## matticus (13 May 2020)

If it's an infection that people generally only get once, the thing MUST die down given enough time.

Herd Immunity will eventually mean that you can kiss 100 random strangers and be at very low risk of catching this thing. Low enough that it's only as dangerous as all the other sh1t that we are exposed to in normal life, like it or not.


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## mjr (13 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Maybe instead of having a go read the evidence and thinking behind fabric face covering in helping control the virus.
> Then maybe you'd see that the public don't need to have close fitting ones and small gap is better than no mask at all.


Who is this directed at? Are you arguing with the person who posted an image criticising the public for "leaving gaps" between their faces and fabric masks? Who, it looks from https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5993391 was a person called @tom73 - do we have two people with the same screen name on here? 



tom73 said:


> As for it being anti mask that would be a bit odd as it's from a group coordinating community made PPE.


Then maybe they're the ones that should have read the evidence and thinking behind fabric face covering before putting out confusing shoot? 

Honestly, it feels more and more like this is a country of well-meaning idiots.


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## mjr (13 May 2020)

matticus said:


> If it's an infection that people generally only get once, the thing MUST die down given enough time.


We don't know that. This has only been around a few months so we don't know how long any immunity lasts. If it's only a few weeks, then it's going to go round and round and round, like the joggers in Blur's park.


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## matticus (13 May 2020)

That would be why I started with "If" then ...


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## mjr (13 May 2020)

matticus said:


> That would be why I started with "If" then ...


Indeed, but you've posted twice in quick succession promoting "herd immunity" which we're not even sure is a thing for c19 yet.


----------



## alicat (13 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> I partly understand what you mean.


 Tee hee! Two many parts to the park that the golf course is in!


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## matticus (13 May 2020)

( @mjr )Well that's a fair point - but it will take us a long time to find that out, I think? And we do need to move forward on SOME basis.

If it IS going to just stay around forever, then we'll just have to deal with that scenario once it becomes clear - I'm not sure that total lockdown until we die out to due to inbreeding is a useful strategy!


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## Johnno260 (13 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Simple and to the point fabric mask mistakes maybe handy if you have kids.
> @Johnno260
> 
> 
> View attachment 521906



Thanks gonna print this out.


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## tom73 (13 May 2020)

As 1st posted by @marinyork re test results not being available to GP's they still can't get hold of them they've just disappeared. 
https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/e...al-labs-going-into-black-hole/7027619.article


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## Mugshot (13 May 2020)

alicat said:


> ^^^ I've so enjoyed walking on my local municipal golf course since lockdown started. Easily the most beautiful part of the part that it is part of. I'm sad to think that it is now* out of bounds*.


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## Mugshot (13 May 2020)

I've seen a few comments, I'm not saying here, that with a bit of common sense it's quite clear what Johnson is saying and that we should be capable of acting like adults and don't need every little detail spelling out to us, anyway...


View: https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1260600770048770049?s=20


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## Bazzer (13 May 2020)

vickster said:


> On mask wearing...
> 
> View attachment 521912


Genuine question. If that is the correct way to wear a mask, why is it so often when hospital staff are seen undertaking, for example surgery, the mask doesn't cover the nose? It has puzzled me for a long time.
Separately, I see some people's cold turkey of fast food has reached breaking point. I was out yesterday and today and long queues, to the extent of causing traffic problems on an A road, were created by cars queuing for a Burger King drive through.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (13 May 2020)




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## Mugshot (13 May 2020)

We could just close the NACA section and post Marina Hyde articles.

You miss one universal credit meeting and your benefits are stopped; you miss five Cobra meetings and you get to address the nation on its working responsibilities from a drawing room so vast you’d need a hansom cab to traverse it.


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## Ming the Merciless (13 May 2020)

Rode past a local golf course today. It was rammed about 40 cars or so and car park full.


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## a.twiddler (13 May 2020)

Bazzer said:


> Genuine question. If that is the correct way to wear a mask, why is it so often when hospital staff are seen undertaking, for example surgery, the mask doesn't cover the nose? It has puzzled me for a long time.
> Separately, I see some people's cold turkey of fast food has reached breaking point. I was out yesterday and today and long queues, to the extent of causing traffic problems on an A road, were created by cars queuing for a Burger King drive through.


A witty poster. Good message. I haven't met anyone yet who breathes through their underpants -well not IN anyway. I can't answer your question about particular hospital staff wearing masks incorrectly. Even pre COVID -19, most hospital staff would be very well aware of cross infection risks.
As for Burger Thing, you've started MY cravings now!


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## glasgowcyclist (13 May 2020)

Bazzer said:


> I was out yesterday and today and long queues, to the extent of causing traffic problems on an A road, were created by cars queuing for a Burger King drive through



From the BBC:
_A newly-reopened Burger King drive-through in Moray had to close due to long queues of traffic.

The burger chain recently announced the reopening of dozens of stores for a mixture of drive-thru and food deliveries.

However, police had to go to the branch in Elgin on Wednesday.

Police Scotland said in a statement: "Police attended after large amounts of traffic. The store closed and traffic dispersed."_







https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-52649712


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## kingrollo (13 May 2020)

matticus said:


> ( @mjr )Well that's a fair point - but it will take us a long time to find that out, I think? And we do need to move forward on SOME basis.
> 
> If it IS going to just stay around forever, then we'll just have to deal with that scenario once it becomes clear - I'm not sure that total lockdown until we die out to due to inbreeding is a useful strategy!


We do have to move forward on "some" basis.

Get the infections low enough to implement track and trace seems to be the opinion of many experts.


----------



## MarkF (13 May 2020)

I got a shock today, I've been asking and asking for the figure for people absent in the hospital with Covid-19 as the reason for their absence, that is either sick or refusing to come in. I'd have guessed at about 50, but the figure was 380! Hospital functioning fine, as it is now pretty much a virus treatment centre.


----------



## PK99 (13 May 2020)

From a very vulnerable friend who is Shielding:

_Today’s entertainment has been the arrival (by text message) of a link to a video and a customised set of advice, from the NHS,
for me as a ‘clinically highly vulnerable’ person, with multiple conditions. Many people have obviously being doing a lot of work in order to co-ordinate all of this, as it provides clear advice and links to a huge range of sources of further information and support. I don’t think I have learnt anything that I didn’t know already but I am probably not an average patient.
Well done NHS

_


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 May 2020)

Hopefully the police will be out with big sticks and attack dogs this weekend -

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news...nburgh-police-issue-strong-warning-attending/


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## glasgowcyclist (14 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Hopefully the police will be out with big sticks and attack dogs this weekend -
> 
> https://www.heraldscotland.com/news...nburgh-police-issue-strong-warning-attending/
> 
> View attachment 522151



“Be part of the largest mass gathering...”

There will be six of them. Idiots.


----------



## perplexed (14 May 2020)

Apparently there was one of those posters doing the rounds in Bristol (same poster, just a different location on it). Bristol isn't my patch, are there others for other towns and cities about?

Edit: Yes, @Joey Shabadoo 's link says it's nation wide.

Good grief...


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Hopefully the police will be out with big sticks and attack dogs this weekend -
> 
> https://www.heraldscotland.com/news...nburgh-police-issue-strong-warning-attending/
> 
> View attachment 522151


I want to know who is behind this. I know the tribe, it is a combo of anti vaxxers and other conspiracy minded loons but I want a name.


----------



## mjr (14 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I want to know who is behind this. I know the tribe, it is a combo of anti vaxxers and other conspiracy minded loons but I want a name.


Jayda Fransen again.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I want to know who is behind this. I know the tribe, it is a combo of anti vaxxers and other conspiracy minded loons but I want a name.


Oh no. It is not the tinfoil hat people. There is a website and on that website there is this.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Jayda Fransen again.


Yes, I see it. Hiding behind the conspiracy guff, latching onto the anti vax people as used by others.


----------



## mjr (14 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Yes, I see it. Hiding behind the conspiracy guff, latching onto the anti vax people as used by others.


The domain is owned by https://opencorporates.com/companies/gb/12579584 IIRC.


----------



## Venod (14 May 2020)




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## mjr (14 May 2020)

One of the pubs near here that turned itself into a village shop has started selling beer and cider from taps. I do wonder whether they'd let customers fill glasses.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 May 2020)

mjr said:


> The domain is owned by https://opencorporates.com/companies/gb/12579584 IIRC.


Incorporated 14 days ago. On a WHOIS lookup the website was registered in 2018, looking at the website it appears to have had little traffic and has very little content. In a normal world if I was in the UK I would have gone along to heckle but its not normal so I can only hope that the flyers are roundly ignored by all but the usual suspects.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 May 2020)

mjr said:


> One of the pubs near here that turned itself into a village shop has started selling beer and cider from taps. I do wonder whether they'd let customers fill glasses.


My sister tells me that her local does homemade pies by telephone order, you pick up your order from a counter in front of the main door and a polypin of beer or bring your own container.


----------



## PK99 (14 May 2020)

Another anecdata point

Zoomed some friends in Cambridgeshire yesterday.

He works for a software company on one of the Science Parks near Cambridge. They share the building with 3 floors of Chinese engineers.

In early January, he went down with a nasty dose of flu - 3/4 days in bed with difficulty breathing, followed by a hacking cough for 3 weeks.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (14 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Oh no. It is not the tinfoil hat people. There is a website and on that website there is this.
> View attachment 522154


It's even got a forum, albeit empty. Good to see that the questions raised are taking the freedom movement seriously:

"Could my chihuahua be arrested and thrown in jail just for being english?"

"Do ants go to discos?"

"When did people start losing their brains?"

And my favourite:

"Is this a movement or just one man in his basement?" That one hits the nail on the head.


----------



## mjr (14 May 2020)

Great response on 
View: https://www.reddit.com/r/northernireland/comments/gj1x2e/got_this_on_the_whatsapp/
: "Erect a 5G pole (or a 4G one, the ****s can't tell the difference anyways)in the middle of the park and none of these daffodils will go near the place"


----------



## Electric_Andy (14 May 2020)




----------



## kingrollo (14 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> I got a shock today, I've been asking and asking for the figure for people absent in the hospital with Covid-19 as the reason for their absence, that is either sick or refusing to come in. I'd have guessed at about 50, but the figure was 380! Hospital functioning fine, as it is now pretty much a virus treatment centre.



Feck knows when I will go back in - if at all. Our classrooms have been used to accommodate those who can not WFH - and the courses I deliver are being shifted to e-learning. Loads of non clinical staff are working from home - loads of recruiting for people to work/cover on wards. !!!!

I fear I will be recalled back into project management - which I moved from as I was on the verge of a breakdown ! - looking a bit grim at the moment tbh !!!!


----------



## mjr (14 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> Im, not sure its an alternative to checking the facts yourself but its not bad to make you think
> link


Another of the misinformation cockwombles who hates cyclists.

ETA: actually, after clicking around a bit, it's even worse than that, trying to push people into not volunteering to care for their community and quitting jobs they can't do from home and shoot like that. It's some extreme misanthropic stay-at-home daffodils.


----------



## Inertia (14 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Another of the misinformation cockwombles who hates cyclists.


I just took it as a joke, I wouldnt take it too seriously


----------



## mjr (14 May 2020)

Inertia said:


> I just took it as a joke, I wouldnt take it too seriously


Scaring people who are already probably nervous about infecting others while out doing essential tasks is a joke now? :,(


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 May 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> It's even got a forum, albeit empty. Good to see that the questions raised are taking the freedom movement seriously:
> 
> "Could my chihuahua be arrested and thrown in jail just for being english?"
> 
> ...


This one: "Am I the only one getting right wing dog whistle vibes from this site?.." 
The titles hoping for a bite are all by an "Rbinman", ho, ho, etc.


----------



## tom73 (14 May 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I want to know who is behind this. I know the tribe, it is a combo of anti vaxxers and other conspiracy minded loons but I want a name.


Next thing you know people will be setting fire to mobile phone masts ..... oh


----------



## tom73 (14 May 2020)

Tonight if you stand at your door and clap be alert to anyone you hear saying things like frontline, fighting , gone to war, hero's. 
Politely explain that they are in danger of falling for government spin. Which they want you to believe to takeaway reposabialty and make think that 208 to date (we know about) deaths of health workers is to be expected. "They are on the frontline in the fight against this virus"
If they still want to believe it ask them why in other counties fight against the virus have they not lost any health workers ?
Why 3 letters PPE. 
So yes go and clap if you want to share in a united message of thank you for the hard work they are going right now. 
They do appreciate it but the best thing you can do for them right now is stay safe , save lives not just for them but for you too.
As for me I will being what I do every Thursday standing at the door and giving Mrs 73 a hug and thinking she's got though another week.


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> If they still want to believe it ask them why in other counties fight against the virus have they not lost any health workers ?



That's not actually true though is it?


----------



## Tanis8472 (14 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Hopefully the police will be out with big sticks and attack dogs this weekend -
> 
> https://www.heraldscotland.com/news...nburgh-police-issue-strong-warning-attending/
> 
> View attachment 522151


Also rumours for Lincoln and Boston


----------



## Rocky (14 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> That's not actually true though is it?


Germany, Holland and NZ - no HCP deaths as of 5 May (if this source is to be believed). 

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/05/04/britain-on-track-for-highest-health-worker-deaths-in-europe/


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Germany, Holland and NZ - no HCP deaths as of 5 May (if this source is to be believed).
> 
> https://bylinetimes.com/2020/05/04/britain-on-track-for-highest-health-worker-deaths-in-europe/


All with thankfully low deaths as a whole.

How about Spain and Italy?


----------



## Rocky (14 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> All with thankfully low deaths as a whole.
> 
> How about Spain and Italy?


Not good and sadly a couple of Italian medical friends of my wife have died. I think it’s to do with the initial viral load that the HCPs were exposed to.


----------



## Adam4868 (14 May 2020)

mjr said:


> One of the pubs near here that turned itself into a village shop has started selling beer and cider from taps. I do wonder whether they'd let customers fill glasses.


Address ? Also can you just stick yer gob under the tap.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (14 May 2020)

It's another red one:


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (14 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It's another red one:
> View attachment 522338


Hmm, I appear to have posted this onto the wrong thread. Oh, well, I'm sure there's a bit of St Thomas' in there somewhere....


----------



## Ming the Merciless (14 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It's another red one:
> View attachment 522338



Does the virus cause that?


----------



## Salty seadog (14 May 2020)

vickster said:


> No need... We’ve sussed out how to wear a mask (and our undies) correctly




In a twist?


----------



## Salty seadog (14 May 2020)

theclaud said:


> I do. Well not so much the game itself and the terrible clothes - each to their own - but the politics of it. Since the restrictions came in, golf courses have effectively become public parks. They still are in Wales for now. I guess now in England it's back to red-faced people in weird trousers shouting at anyone who deviates an inch from the footpath. Allegedly, the district of Woking is 11% golf course. Shockingly, that's not even the worst thing about Woking.



I've played Hoebridge golf course a couple of times. An interesting course. You'll be thrilled to find out it concludes on a par 3 18th hole. Not many courses do that. Although the old course at Etchinghill near Folkestone where I played for many years does too. Usually a 5 iron for me.


----------



## Salty seadog (14 May 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> "Do ants go to discos?"




View: https://youtu.be/6spuciiFRRI


----------



## theclaud (14 May 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> I've played Hoebridge golf course a couple of times. An interesting course. You'll be thrilled to find out it concludes on a par 3 18th hole. Not many courses do that. Although the old course at Etchinghill near Folkestone where I played for many years does too. Usually a 5 iron for me.


Yebbut are there any gnarly berms?


----------



## Salty seadog (14 May 2020)

theclaud said:


> Yebbut are there any gnarly berms?



Actually as golf courses go, yes. I did say it was an interesting course and it had some very unique holes requiring a bit of imagination.


Cycling is discouraged on the course though.


----------



## Slioch (14 May 2020)

I forgot about the 8 o clock clap tonight I'm afraid - It was such a beautiful evening i was out on my bike instead (I'm not a bad person, honest!).

Anyhoo, I was out in the depths of the countryside north of York and I heard some distant pot banging at 8pm, but there was also quite a lot of gunshots too. I guess they do things differently out in the sticks.


----------



## slowmotion (14 May 2020)

Slioch said:


> I forgot about the 8 o clock clap tonight I'm afraid - It was such a beautiful evening i was out on my bike instead (I'm not a bad person, honest!).
> 
> Anyhoo, I was out in the depths of the countryside north of York and I heard some distant pot banging at 8pm, but there was also quite a lot of gunshots too. I guess they do things differently out in the sticks.


The locals were probably culling the second-homers.


----------



## MarkF (14 May 2020)

As an aside.......there is a long term running dispute between smokers and non smokers at our hospital. I am 57 and it's the truth, I've never worked with a smoker (or fatso) till I joined the* NHS* at 52. Many smokers go outside every hour, so the non-smokers want to know where their extra hours break is, or an extra hours pay, seems fair enough to me. In Spain workers now (rightly) have to clock out to smoke which solves half of the problem but doesn't address the non-smokers going flat out to cover their breaks.

Now in virus world, the smokers have to remove all NHS (possibly contaminated) uniform and put on their own clothing before going outside............thus their breaks are now twice+ as long. It'll blow soon.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (14 May 2020)

Talking of stress building, my company furloughed half the warehouse and workshop staff, topping up wages to 100%. Fine for a while but there’s a lot of grumbling now about people getting the same money and not working for it.


----------



## kingrollo (14 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> As an aside.......there is a long term running dispute between smokers and non smokers at our hospital. I am 57 and it's the truth, I've never worked with a smoker (or fatso) till I joined the* NHS* at 52. Many smokers go outside every hour, so the non-smokers want to know where their extra hours break is, or an extra hours pay, seems fair enough to me. In Spain workers now (rightly) have to clock out to smoke which solves half of the problem but doesn't address the non-smokers going flat out to cover their breaks.
> 
> Now in virus world, the smokers have to remove all NHS (possibly contaminated) uniform and put on their own clothing before going outside............thus their breaks are now twice+ as long. It'll blow soon.


Never been a problem wherever I've worked - and the smoking ban has been in how many years now ?

Been in the NHS for 20 years and have never heard of friction between smokers and non smokers 

My job and many others are workload driven/measured if you're up to date you get a breather.


----------



## StuAff (14 May 2020)

Watching Charlie Brooker's Antiviral Wipe. The thought has occurred that Cunk & S**tpeas would do a better job in the current situation than the Tory omnishambles....


----------



## MarkF (14 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Never been a problem wherever I've worked - and the smoking ban has been in how many years now ?
> 
> Been in the NHS for 20 years and have never heard of friction between smokers and non smokers
> 
> My job and many others are workload driven/measured if you're up to date you get a breather.



What smoking ban? Any time of day you will see umpteen hospital staff smoking, often directly under "clean air" posters. It's regularly in the local rag. Friction is a daily thing and no wonder, but the current virus hygiene regulations have brought it to a head, now a smoker can be gone 20 mins an hour.

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co...smokefree---photographs-tell-different-story/


----------



## Rusty Nails (14 May 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> I've played Hoebridge golf course a couple of times. An interesting course. You'll be thrilled to find out it concludes on a par 3 18th hole. Not many courses do that. Although the old course at Etchinghill near Folkestone where I played for many years does too. Usually a 5 iron for me.


That's fascinating.


----------



## PK99 (14 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> As an aside.......there is a long term running dispute between smokers and non smokers at our hospital. I am 57 and it's the truth, I've never worked with a smoker (or fatso) till I joined the* NHS* at 52. Many smokers go outside every hour, so the non-smokers want to know where their extra hours break is, or an extra hours pay, seems fair enough to me. In Spain workers now (rightly) have to clock out to smoke which solves half of the problem but doesn't address the non-smokers going flat out to cover their breaks.
> 
> Now in virus world, the smokers have to remove all NHS (possibly contaminated) uniform and put on their own clothing before going outside............thus their breaks are now twice+ as long. It'll blow soon.



St George's in Tooting has a No Smoking policy covering the whole site.

*3.1* Smoking is not permitted inside the buildings or on the grounds of all St George’s, University of London premises at all times. This will ensure that staff, students and visitors are protected from the dangers of passive smoking while on St George’s premises.

*3.2* Smoking is also prohibited:


within vehicles owned and operated by St George’s, University of London;
within private or leased vehicles used during University business to transport a University employee or student who does not smoke any tobacco products including electronic cigarettes


----------



## kingrollo (14 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> What smoking ban? Any time of day you will see umpteen hospital staff smoking, often directly under "clean air" posters. It's regularly in the local rag. Friction is a daily thing and no wonder, but the current virus hygiene regulations have brought it to a head, now a smoker can be gone 20 mins an hour.
> 
> https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co...smokefree---photographs-tell-different-story/



Smoking ban came in first in the 1990s - at first designated rooms - at my trust we have dedicated smoking shelters.

Never been a problem to me or any of my colleagues either smokers or non smokers. YMMV.


----------



## a.twiddler (15 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Smoking ban came in first in the 1990s - at first designated rooms - at my trust we have dedicated smoking shelters.
> 
> Never been a problem to me or any of my colleagues either smokers or non smokers. YMMV.


It's a long time since I worked in the NHS but certainly when I have been for meetings or training on NHS sites since, smokers had to go outside the boundary of the premises, even to the pavement outside the gate, before they could light up. I am not a smoker myself but it did seem discriminatory to make them do this, clean air requirements and passive smoking issues notwithstanding. It was not particularly an issue to me or my non smoking colleagues otherwise.


----------



## Tanis8472 (15 May 2020)

It's always the same types isn't it.
Why is it being given airtime anyway 🙄

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/to...-for-call-over-public-transport-use-1-6653034

Sorry, i can't name it.


----------



## vickster (15 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> St George's in Tooting has a No Smoking policy covering the whole site.
> 
> *3.1* Smoking is not permitted inside the buildings or on the grounds of all St George’s, University of London premises at all times. This will ensure that staff, students and visitors are protected from the dangers of passive smoking while on St George’s premises.
> 
> ...


I’ve certainly seen smokers at St George’s, patients and visitors near main entrances. It may be policy but not necessarily enforced!
I spent a good hour in November walking around the whole site while waiting for my mum who was having a procedure


----------



## Electric_Andy (15 May 2020)

At my hospital they used to have smoking shelters, but very few used them and instead smoked anywhere they liked. About 4 years ago it became a "smoke-free site" so the shelters were taken down. So now there's always an uproar when anyone walks past a smoker and the staff ask the CEO "can't they be fined?", to which the answer is always "we have no power to enforce these rules because smoking on site is not against the law".


----------



## PeteXXX (15 May 2020)

Change of topic.. A daughter of mine took her 'virus school vouchers', I don't know the value, to Asda and bought a trolley load of shopping. 
When they scanned them, the couldn't take them as the hadn't been registered!! Registered with whom, or where, I don't know. 
As she had no money with her, she had to leave it there for the staff to put back on the shelves. 
By the time she got home, they had become 'registered' and she had a message saying that they could now be used in Aldi. Previously, they could not be used there or lidl. 

Any others had, or heard of this problem?


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

What a totally humiliating experience for her and sadly she's not alone it's a wide spread problem. 
We've had no end of issues with them the whole voucher thing is a total mess the company asked to run it can't cope with the numbers. 
They've no experience and are tiny 150 staff handing out vouchers to 1.3 million families. 
Some are still waiting to see any vouchers and are just about getting by with handouts.


----------



## PeteXXX (15 May 2020)

One child is in Reception, so is entitled to free meals automatically, therefore gets no vouchers. 
Other child is in Year 6 (?) first year of big school, and is entitled to free meals, due to income, therefore _gets_ vouchers!


----------



## kingrollo (15 May 2020)

had the 'how ya doing call" from gp surgery yesterday
She knows about my anxiety and depression issues - she asked if I had thought about harming myself - I almost replied 
"no but I thought about harming other people!!!!"


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

Ask the school if any other help is available some schools are still providing meals for collection/ home delivery. 
She should be able to get something extra. 
As for Aldi it looks they signed up 21 April and went live from 27th. 
Other signed up and working are Sainsbury’s, Tesco, Asda, Morrison’s, Waitrose, Mc Colls and M&S. 
Coop are not on the list but think they are on board. They hand out vouchers to coop schools long before any else. 
If none are local school are able to buy vouchers for a store that is.


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

@PeteXXX this is the Q and A how it works , well how it should work may help. 
https://www.edenred.co.uk/Documents/DfE/DfE_FreeSchoolMeals_ParentCarerFAQs.pdf


----------



## SpokeyDokey (15 May 2020)

Interesting news Re London new daily cases rate as well as regional R values for England:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20..._source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...infection-is-slowing-say-researchers-11988579

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-14...navirus-covid19-highest-north-east-yorkshire/


----------



## PeteXXX (15 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> @PeteXXX this is the Q and A how it works , well how it should work may help.
> https://www.edenred.co.uk/Documents/DfE/DfE_FreeSchoolMeals_ParentCarerFAQs.pdf


Thank you. I'll forward that info.


----------



## mjr (15 May 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/davidrhodesBBC/status/1260876495196688385?p=v


Following MRC_BSU on twitter may interest some who like this sort of data.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (15 May 2020)

Quote from the Independent:

_London__’s rate of coronavirus infection has fallen to less than 24 cases a day, the lowest in the UK, nearly two months after the region hit a high of 200,000 new cases in a day at the start of the nationwide lockdown.

Research by Public Health England and the University of Cambridge's MRC Biostatic Unit showed the number of daily infections in London now halving every 3.5 days, which means coronavirus could be wiped out there within just two weeks._

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...london-lowest-rate-infection-uk-a9515761.html


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

The bigger picture is much more complex so many other things in play than the numbers. 
Much of which can't be fixed by current measures it's going to take a lot more than that. Sadly these figure will just get added to LA and government blame game roundabout. The North east and Yorkshire numbers don't leave a lot of room for getting things wrong and that's before government latest mess up.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (15 May 2020)

Could the London figures be related to the numbers of people who are no longer in London and working remotely? Are the figures for people living in London, or cases reported in London?

I live somewhere where an awful lot of people used to commute by train to London and I imagine a large number of those people are no longer doing that. If they start commuting again, the numbers may go up.


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> Could the London figures be related to the numbers of people who are no longer in London and working remotely? Are the figures for people living in London, or cases reported in London?
> 
> I live somewhere where an awful lot of people used to commute by train to London and I imagine a large number of those people are no longer doing that. If they start commuting again, the numbers may go up.


This is the problem with headline figures what then get used as a sign it's getting better without reporting the bigger picture it's useless.


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

Contact tracing preparations are going well 
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-15...ontact-tracers-hired-cabinet-minister-admits/


----------



## lane (15 May 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> Change of topic.. A daughter of mine took her 'virus school vouchers', I don't know the value, to Asda and bought a trolley load of shopping.
> When they scanned them, the couldn't take them as the hadn't been registered!! Registered with whom, or where, I don't know.
> As she had no money with her, she had to leave it there for the staff to put back on the shelves.
> By the time she got home, they had become 'registered' and she had a message saying that they could now be used in Aldi. Previously, they could not be used there or lidl.
> ...



That and many other issues are common with the system and it ha been been a nightmare for those who work in schools, and desperately want to get help to parents who need it, to administer. Early on it was nearly impossible for staff to log on and order vouchers etc. I know staff logging on in the early hours to try to get vouchers ordered for those that need them.


----------



## lane (15 May 2020)

mjr said:


> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/davidrhodesBBC/status/1260876495196688385?p=v
> 
> 
> Following MRC_BSU on twitter may interest some who like this sort of data.




It's interesting that the r looks lower in areas where the number of cases has been higher obviously London but to a lesser extent the Midlands. I wonder what the reason for this is?


----------



## mjr (15 May 2020)

lane said:


> It's interesting that the r looks lower in areas where the number of cases has been higher obviously London but to a lesser extent the Midlands. I wonder what the reason for this is?


I suspect most likely is a more scared population complying with lockdown more strictly but it could be almost anything, including demographics or not everyone being equally susceptible and the "easy fuel" having been infected already and immune.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (15 May 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> Could the London figures be related to the numbers of people who are no longer in London and working remotely? Are the figures for people living in London, or cases reported in London?
> 
> I live somewhere where an awful lot of people used to commute by train to London and I imagine a large number of those people are no longer doing that. If they start commuting again, the numbers may go up.



Good questions - my (possibly flawed) assumption are that they are numbers reported in London as I would think PHE collate on a geographical basis for this type of analysis otherwise there would be little point.

Good to get a bit of good news though after the last few months. Let's see how it plays out in London over the next few weeks and hope that the results, if they stand the test of time, are indicative of what could happen in the rest of the country.

I'm also wondering if there are any other similar datasets in other countries that indicate the same progress?


----------



## matticus (15 May 2020)

mjr said:


> I suspect most likely is a more scared population complying with lockdown more strictly but it could be almost anything, including demographics or not everyone being equally susceptible and the "easy fuel" having been infected already and immune.


"immune" ?


----------



## raleighnut (15 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Contact tracing preparations are going well
> https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-15...ontact-tracers-hired-cabinet-minister-admits/


How do you 'contact trace' when you've been on a crowded tube train or in a station full of people, the 'social distancing'/staying at home should continue until this disease has gone.


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

raleighnut said:


> How do you 'contact trace' when you've been on a crowded tube train or in a station full of people, the 'social distancing'/staying at home should continue until this disease has gone.


Have you heard they have an app for that


----------



## lane (15 May 2020)

matticus said:


> "immune" ?



That was exactly what I was wondering. However some other plausible explanations have been put forward above such a high prevalence of home working, a more scared population and these could be equally valid. I also wonder if some people in London started to take precautions earlier a week before lock down when it was known that London was a higher risk. Most likely a combination of all theses things.


----------



## lane (15 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Have you heard they have an app for that



Gone a bit quiet on the app hasn't it?


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

i'm sure it's all going to plan i mean everything has


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

Redcross now have a covid helpline up and running for free emotional support , help getting shopping , prescription or just someone to talk to. So if you know anyone who needs help pass it on 





https://www.redcross.org.uk/get-help/coronavirus/support-line


----------



## lane (15 May 2020)

BBC report R number creeps up nearer to 1. This increase pre-dates the relaxation in restriction this week. That does not seem good news or bode well for further relaxation. It also seems the R figure is about 3 weeks out of date at any point in time so we really don't have enough hard information to go for relaxations at two weekly or monthly intervals as proposed by Boris (e.g further relaxation on 1st June and 1st July) because we will barely have any idea of impact of the last one. For example relaxation Mid May then another on 1st of June but on the 1st June we will have no idea of the impact of the previous relaxation due to lag in infections and data.


----------



## kingrollo (15 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Redcross now have a covid helpline up and running for free emotional support , help getting shopping , prescription or just someone to talk to. So if you know anyone who needs help pass it on
> View attachment 522489
> 
> https://www.redcross.org.uk/get-help/coronavirus/support-line


Do they do extras ?


----------



## kingrollo (15 May 2020)

lane said:


> BBC report R number creeps up nearer to 1. This increase pre-dates the relaxation in restriction this week. That does not seem good news or bode well for further relaxation. It also seems the R figure is about 3 weeks out of date at any point in time so we really don't have enough hard information to go for relaxations at two weekly or monthly intervals as proposed by Boris (e.g further relaxation on 1st June and 1st July) because we will barely have any idea of impact of the last one. For example relaxation Mid May then another on 1st of June but on the 1st June we will have no idea of the impact of the previous relaxation due to lag in infections and data.


Of course we do.
You just alter the calculation of R until you get the figure you the want.
Think reverse engineering !


----------



## newfhouse (15 May 2020)

lane said:


> Gone a bit quiet on the app hasn't it?


Not entirely, no.
https://www.grahamcluley.com/nhs-coronavirus-app-data-leak-google-drive/


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

Extra homeless funding set to end , that's just what we need right now yet another uncontrolled source of community transmission. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52637283


----------



## mjr (15 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Extra homeless funding set to end , that's just what we need right now yet another uncontrolled source of community transmission.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52637283


I wonder if "the spokesperson" (Dom?) said "Aah the homeless live outside and you can't catch it easily outside so fark 'em"


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 May 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Not entirely, no.
> https://www.grahamcluley.com/nhs-coronavirus-app-data-leak-google-drive/


Hmm,

The UK’s Coronavirus tracing app is being headed up by Dido Harding, who you may recall was the CEO during TalkTalk’s disastrous data breach.


----------



## steve292 (15 May 2020)

lane said:


> That and many other issues are common with the system and it ha been been a nightmare for those who work in schools, and desperately want to get help to parents who need it, to administer. Early on it was nearly impossible for staff to log on and order vouchers etc. I know staff logging on in the early hours to try to get vouchers ordered for those that need them.


My Wife did exactly that to get the vouchers out. Worked until 3:30 am to get them printed at school for pickup. We went to Tescos 2 days later and some twat abused her for not having it delivered to his house. At which point I told him to F88k off or I would socially distance him from his teeth.


----------



## mjr (15 May 2020)

lane said:


> [...] It also seems the R figure is about 3 weeks out of date at any point in time [...]


What says that, please? It really shouldn't be, what with symptoms taking a median of 5 days to show and test results ideally taking a median of 3 days, with a target to get it to 2 or 1. Also, you can take a calculated R from days ago and use it to forecast a figure for now, although without the effect of any interventions in the time between.


----------



## kingrollo (15 May 2020)

Wonder what time Boris will deny that R is getting close to 1.....
(Does the calculation currently include care home ?)


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Wonder what time Boris will deny that R is getting close to 1.....
> (Does the calculation currently include care home ?)



If you don't like the measure you make up a new one AKA virus threat level complete with made up formula.


----------



## newfhouse (15 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Hmm,
> 
> The UK’s Coronavirus tracing app is being headed up by Dido Harding, who you may recall was the CEO during TalkTalk’s disastrous data breach.


Conservative Life Peer The Baroness Harding Of Winscombe, if you don’t mind. When asked in an interview about the TalkTalk breach if she knew whether the affected customer data was encrypted or not, she said: “The awful truth is that I don’t know”. 

What could possibly go wrong?


----------



## kingrollo (15 May 2020)

"R isn't the focus" - Jenny Harries

Seriously they don't help themselves do they ?


----------



## midlife (15 May 2020)

Was in the hospital today and suddenly everybody started clapping. I believe someone was discharged from ITU to the wards having been in ITU for over 40 days!


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> "R isn't the focus" - Jenny Harries
> 
> Seriously they don't help themselves do they ?


To be fair she was giving a scientific reply to yet another media question void of any real substance. On it's own it's not the focus without the detail behind it then it's just a number. Another example of press and MP's mixing science with everyday language. Looking a quick fix or sound bite without any real idea what they are talking about. Whitty is quite good at knowing when the press are fishing for sound bites and soon put's them down with facts even if it's not what they want to hear.


----------



## Tanis8472 (15 May 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Quote from the Independent:
> 
> _London__’s rate of coronavirus infection has fallen to less than 24 cases a day, the lowest in the UK, nearly two months after the region hit a high of 200,000 new cases in a day at the start of the nationwide lockdown.
> 
> ...



How can they know the true figure without testing?


----------



## Tanis8472 (15 May 2020)

Me thinks the daffodils are lying again ffs


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1261329991708684294


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Me thinks the daffodils are lying again ffs
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1261329991708684294




Throwing the ring over a care hame is a great game second only to pinning the tail on the donkey.


----------



## kingrollo (15 May 2020)

We don't believe r is above 1 so that meets the target - Matt Hancock.


----------



## lane (15 May 2020)

mjr said:


> What says that, please? It really shouldn't be, what with symptoms taking a median of 5 days to show and test results ideally taking a median of 3 days, with a target to get it to 2 or 1. Also, you can take a calculated R from days ago and use it to forecast a figure for now, although without the effect of any interventions in the time between.


*
"As the figures are based on patients ending up in hospital, they actually give a sense of the R-number from around three weeks ago.*" Source BBC News Website report on the r increasing to nearer 1

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194

I guess median of 5 days to show symptoms and then another 10 days before having to be admitted to hospital seems typical which would be 3 weeks


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (15 May 2020)

OMG 
View: https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1260949102617075712?s=21


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> How can they know the true figure without testing?


The 24 cases is bogus anyway. From the BBC website:

There were in fact 49 people admitted to London hospitals with Covid-19 yesterday and likely hundreds of cases that did not need hospital treatment.
"I am extremely worried about the media message that London could be coronavirus free in days," said Prof Matt Keeling, from the University of Warwick.
He added: "If people think London is coronavirus-free that could be dangerous, and could lead to complacency, undermining all the struggles and sacrifices that everyone has made so far. A relaxation of vigilance could easily see R increasing above 1, and a second epidemic wave."
(https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194)


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Throwing the ring over a care hame is a great game second only to pinning the tail on the donkey.


I'm sure care homes are mightily reassured by having the Hancock ring of confidence around them.


----------



## raleighnut (15 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Throwing the ring over a care hame is a great game second only to pinning the tail on the* Unicorn*.




FTFY


----------



## mjr (15 May 2020)

New guidance as the government covers more and more topics. NSFW so in spoiler tags:


Spoiler




View: https://twitter.com/BrokenTwitty/status/1259761657791873026/photo/1


----------



## mjr (15 May 2020)

lane said:


> *
> "As the figures are based on patients ending up in hospital, they actually give a sense of the R-number from around three weeks ago.*" Source BBC News Website report on the r increasing to nearer 1
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194


Thanks. That's talking about the SAGE "model of models plus fudge" R value. Why the fark are they using that and having to wait for hospitalisations instead of a testing-based number? If it's that shoot, they should abandon it and use the MRC Biostats nowcast or something similar IMO. Just how badly are they expecting to fail at scaling up timely testing?


----------



## perplexed (15 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Me thinks the daffodils are lying again ffs
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1261329991708684294




Good grief.


----------



## MarkF (15 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Smoking ban came in first in the 1990s - at first designated rooms - at my trust we have dedicated smoking shelters.
> 
> Never been a problem to me or any of my colleagues either smokers or non smokers. YMMV.



Smoking ban, wow, I didn't know that. If you have workers taking a smoking break every hour, and that time is now doubled, whilst their colleagues are working, you are going to have a problem, in any business or any workplace.

PPE. It's gone proper NHS/Public sector mental. I'd advise anybody to invest in PPE, security screen/curtain/blind companies, it's going to boom for years. PPE is being wasted in an astronomical fashion and the plastic waste the NHS is going to cause is frightening, I am generating a pile of plastic waste myself every shift.


----------



## mjr (15 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> PPE is being wasted in an astronomical fashion??? Could you provide some evidence for that? Because quite frankly, I don’t believe you.


I think @MarkF may mean in the sense it's going in the waste bin, not a recycling bin or laundry bin.


----------



## kingrollo (15 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> Smoking ban, wow, I didn't know that. If you have workers taking a smoking break every hour, and that time is now doubled, whilst their colleagues are working, you are going to have a problem, in any business or any workplace.
> 
> PPE. It's gone proper NHS/Public sector mental. I'd advise anybody to invest in PPE, security screen/curtain/blind companies, it's going to boom for years. PPE is being wasted in an astronomical fashion and the plastic waste the NHS is going to cause is frightening, I am generating a pile of plastic waste myself every shift.


Is your hospital in special measures ?


----------



## Rocky (15 May 2020)

mjr said:


> I think @MarkF may mean in the sense it's going in the waste bin, not a recycling bin or laundry bin.


There is a reason why a lot of PPE is being used and it is not down to waste............it’s not reusable. (I know you are trying to make sense of what Mark said)


----------



## MarkF (15 May 2020)

If I move a bloke with a broken leg (NOT A BLOKE WITH COVID-19) from one general ward to another, a simple patient transfer. I have to first don and then junk, within metres of putting them on, three full PPE uniforms, visor, mask, gloves and apron. With a bit of common sense and ward assistance, I don't actually need to don any PPE at all.


----------



## Rocky (15 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> If I move a bloke with a broken leg (NOT A BLOKE WITH COVID-19) from one ward to another, a simple patient transfer. I have to first don and then junk, within metres of putting them on, three full PPE uniforms, visor, mask, gloves and apron. With a bit of common sense and ward assistance, I don't actually need to don any PPE at all. I am wholly unconcerned whether you believe me or not.


If you are following infection control guidelines you are not wasting PPE. You are using it properly.....how do you know a man in a hospital with a broken leg isn’t asymptomatic for Covid or some other bug? Hospitals are very good places for picking up and transferring infections.....remember C Difficile?


----------



## MarkF (15 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> If you are following infection control guidelines you are not wasting PPE. You are using it properly.....how do you know a man in a hospital with a broken leg isn’t asymptomatic for Covid or some other bug? Hospitals are very good places for picking up and transferring infections.....remember C Difficile?



If there is a risk involved (assumed, known or not) then 1 uniform of PPE could be used for the situation I described, not 3 uniforms.


----------



## tom73 (15 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> PPE is being wasted in an astronomical fashion??? Could you provide some evidence for that? Because quite frankly, I don’t believe you.


Well we have the 400,000 gowns and the 26M of eye protection which 17M was sent out before they tested them.
Which turned out to be the same ones Mrs 73 has been using for weeks


----------



## randynewmanscat (16 May 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> OMG
> View: https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1260949102617075712?s=21



Impregnate the cardboard with hexamine wax and you have a home cremation kit.


----------



## randynewmanscat (16 May 2020)

mjr said:


> The domain is owned by https://opencorporates.com/companies/gb/12579584 IIRC.


Scram News covered this and must have a good phone directory because they spoke with Richard Inman, the Rbinman I mentioned earlier. He denies the website he runs has anything to do with the appearance of flyers but goes on a video rant agreeing with most of it anyway.
Fransen did indeed register a similarly titled company two weeks ago. Whether it is a case of Popular Peoples Front of Judea misunderstanding or not Fransen and Inman have documented form as cohorts. She has not surfaced to confirm or deny but is probably reveling in the attention.
I wondered when the haters would surface, they have been quiet for months. With their fans attention being distracted from Muslim and foreigner hate the only way to get attention is to focus on "gubbermint" mistrust, hate and the "stasi state". The ground is very fertile for the disaffected and anti social right now with the crud circulating online amplified by states including Russia.
Must dash, 5G masts ahoy!


----------



## Poacher (16 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Fwiw - the biggest waste of £4bn was the 2009/10 re organisation which imo achieved nowt and has had to be slowly undone.


Are those dates correct? The reorganisation led by Andrew Lansley, which was certainly both extremely expensive and destructive, took place between 2011 and 2013, I believe.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 May 2020)

Live link to lockdown protest in London


View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=535985877310648&ref=watch_permalink


----------



## Slick (16 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Live link to lockdown protest in London
> 
> 
> View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=535985877310648&ref=watch_permalink



I got to the bit when she tried to explain why she wasn't entirely sure if there even was a virus.


----------



## raleighnut (16 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Live link to lockdown protest in London
> 
> 
> View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=535985877310648&ref=watch_permalink



Jeez barely a brain cell between em.


----------



## Blue Hills (16 May 2020)

As I understand it Italy is reopening for travel, with no quarantine period for entrants, from June 3.

And restaurants can reopen as long as folk aren't closer to one metre to those not at their table. Which sounds to me like "as normal" since I'm not in the habit of picking food from neighbouring tables.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 May 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/Thomashornall/status/1261635330760982529


----------



## tom73 (16 May 2020)

He's a climate change denier too that's all you need to know really


----------



## AndyRM (16 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> had the 'how ya doing call" from gp surgery yesterday
> She knows about my anxiety and depression issues - she asked if I had thought about harming myself - I almost replied
> "no but I thought about harming other people!!!!"



Like you, our GP is aware of mine and my fella's depression and self harm. For lack of anything better to do, we decided to give opposite answers when asked if we'd thought about self harm. Got essentially the same reply of "Well, it's a permanent solution to a temporary problem. Keep your chin up and do your best."

Fortunately we've both had a positive week and could laugh about it, but saying things like that can be really unhelpful. Seems to be the stock response of the crisis team too. Don't get me wrong, I'm grateful for what services they provide, and I appreciate they're in a difficult and stressful situation, but at least try and change the record; a discernible remix would be at least encouraging.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (16 May 2020)

The anti-lockdown protests in Queens Park and Glasgow Green were, well, damp squibs. There was nobody at the former location and it’s believed the latter may have attracted enough idiots to perhaps break through the double figure barrier.


----------



## Slick (16 May 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> The anti-lockdown protests in Queens Park and Glasgow Green were, well, damp squibs. There was nobody at the former location and it’s believed the latter may have attracted enough idiots to perhaps break through the double figure barrier.


Nearly went over for a swatch but bottled it when I realised they would probably think I had come to join them.


----------



## Mugshot (16 May 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/GillibrandPeter/status/1261618434355363840?s=19


----------



## tom73 (16 May 2020)

For some time we've had much talk about the total screw up in care homes. Yesterday we had Hancock talk even more about the measures being taken to sort it out. Talk of more money and training for infection control , PPE and LA having a put in place in place extra help and support. But though out all this we've heard nothing from or word of the CNO why ? if anyone is best paced to over to the coordination and implementation of all this it's her. 

This can't be left each LA to fix many just don't have a clue. Or will not pass on the funding fully or quick enough. It need's one standard approach , one set of standards, one centrally planned and delivered program of training. One person with who the buck stops and is qualified enough to know how it all works and make the necessary clinical decisions not political ones be it national or local. 

Either she's been totally sidelined after the last time she was part the daily briefing. Or because it was a total car crash so she won't face the public anymore because of it. Or it's all part of the messaging that care and nursing are not the same thing which governments of all colours. Have been happy to promote and she's happy to play along with it. 
The total lack of leadership from the Chef Nurse to her fellow profession though out all this is staggering.


----------



## mjr (16 May 2020)

80-90% of pre-lockdown traffic on the A10 at lunchtime IMO. Lots of motorcycles heading for the coast, which is unsurprising after our borough decided to release a farking news story announcing the reopening of the clifftop car/m/c parks. I suspect the vehicles missing were mainly the browsers/window-shoppers and the "parental taxis" because their destinations remain closed.

Do motorists think lockdown is effectively over for now? Well, except for horeca and arts/culture destinations being still closed.


----------



## mjr (16 May 2020)

And unsurprisingly https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/crime/police-coronavirus-lockdown-patrols-hunstanton-seafront-1-6657218


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (16 May 2020)

mjr said:


> And unsurprisingly https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/crime/police-coronavirus-lockdown-patrols-hunstanton-seafront-1-6657218


And this has to be one of the oddest paragraph I've ever seen in a paper

''The group were accepting of the warning and separated, before the vast majority departed the seafront.'' But I've never been to Hunstanton so I don't know what passes for normal there.


----------



## Milzy (17 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And this has to be one of the oddest paragraph I've ever seen in a paper
> 
> ''The group were accepting of the warning and separated, before the vast majority departed the seafront.'' But I've never been to Hunstanton so I don't know what passes for normal there.


There's hundreds of little coastal towns, many which are tiny and remote. If the bikers chose carefully the right place there's a possibility of no poilce presence. No way are they covering every mile of the UK coast line.


----------



## mjr (17 May 2020)

Milzy said:


> There's hundreds of little coastal towns, many which are tiny and remote. If the bikers chose carefully the right place there's a possibility of no poilce presence. No way are they covering every mile of the UK coast line.


Cliff/beach car/motorcycle parking remained closed in the other Norfolk coast boroughs/districts, covering Wells, Cromer and Great Yarmouth. West Norfork is the only Norfolk coast borough putting revenue first and Hunstanton one of only two beach resorts in it. It may have been in cahoots with police to attract the idiots there, but I doubt it.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (17 May 2020)

Glasgow yesterday


View: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2679279072315979&id=100007017370685&sfnsn=scwspwa&extid=JO3qEaL6nKRIxxGi&d=w&vh=i


----------



## Mugshot (17 May 2020)

Not man, but which number? We have a right to know.


----------



## AndyRM (17 May 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Not man, but which number? We have a right to know.
> 
> View attachment 522991



42?


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (17 May 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Not man, but which number? We have a right to know.
> 
> View attachment 522991



“What do we want?” 
“Freedom to get ill and possibly die”
“When do we want it?”
“Erm... now?”


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 May 2020)

So, as Gove backed up Hancock's 100,000 tests claim, does his claim to have recruited 17,000 testers (15,500 since the day before yesterday) mean that they've sent out that many application forms?


----------



## tom73 (17 May 2020)

Lord Sumption on BBC news being interviewed he's a total loon. End lock down government has no longer need of it , NHS has beds not over whelmed ,only effects old with underlaying conditions, they'd have died anyway ect, ect
To think he was till 2018 one of Justices of the Supreme Court. Every time the BBC let him on he talk crap why they let him get away with it lord knows.


----------



## tom73 (17 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> So, as Gove backed up Hancock's 100,000 tests claim, does his claim to have recruited 17,000 testers (15,500 since the day before yesterday) mean that they've sent out that many application forms?



Notice they don't break the numbers down and say how many of the 18,000 will be the clinical track and tracers and how many will be just any body who get's though the recruitment.


----------



## Tanis8472 (17 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Glasgow yesterday
> 
> 
> View: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2679279072315979&id=100007017370685&sfnsn=scwspwa&extid=JO3qEaL6nKRIxxGi&d=w&vh=i




farking hell


----------



## Cuchilo (17 May 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Not man, but which number? We have a right to know.
> 
> View attachment 522991


 First the elderly and weak got sadly taken . Now the idiots are fronting the natural cull


----------



## mjr (17 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> So, as Gove backed up Hancock's 100,000 tests claim, does his claim to have recruited 17,000 testers (15,500 since the day before yesterday) mean that they've sent out that many application forms?


On that note, More or Less: Behind the Stats: Vitamin D, explaining R and the 2 meter rule http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08czkk7 has moved from scathing to downright hacked off.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 May 2020)

AndyRM said:


> 42?



Nah got to be 6


----------



## mjr (17 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Nah got to be 6


Looks more like a number 2.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 May 2020)

mjr said:


> On that note, More or Less: Behind the Stats: Vitamin D, explaining R and the 2 meter rule http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08czkk7 has moved from scathing to downright hacked off.


Most scathing on the trustworthiness of government use of testing figures.

Anyhow, are these 17,000 jobs jobs anyway? :
“Thank you for your online application for this role. Unfortunately earlier today the roles were put on hold. This is due to a delay in the launch of the ‘Track and Trace’ app itself while the government considers an alternative app,” 

...and...

''People who had applied for contact-tracing jobs through the government’s gov.uk website were told this weekend: “As and when the app (or an alternative) goes live, we will reconsider those applications already received, however please be aware that we have received an unprecedented number of applications for this role and therefore not all suitable candidates will be able to be put forward.” 

(source: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-wrongly-told-hiring-paused-in-latest-misstep)


----------



## tom73 (17 May 2020)

On the news they've just interview people out for the day at the beach. 
One family they traveled 11/2 hours said they worried about being out. 
The daughter said she thought it was good to be free to go out but worried of a 2rd peak. "As people will start to do what they won't"
The mother was disappointed at the numbers out and lack of social distancing "it's just like tescos" 🤦‍♀️
It was lost on them that maybe they are part of the problem.


----------



## DCLane (17 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> On the news they've just interview people out for the day at the beach.
> One family they traveled 11/2 hours said they worried about being out.
> The daughter said she thought it was good to be free to go out but worried of a 2rd peak. "As people will start to do what they won't"
> The mother was disappointed at the numbers out and lack of social distancing "it's just like tescos" 🤦‍♀️
> It was lost on them that maybe they are part of the problem.



And that's why I think that this will go on for some time. The stupid idiots think it's not them, but others. When it is them. 

On the other hand, if they catch it and are with other stupid idiots just maybe we'll have less left? Cruel, sadistic but possible.

The next street to me decided to have a street party last Friday night. DJ, everyone together, no distancing. And now it's turned out that a couple of them got ill this week and others are worried.


----------



## stowie (17 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> On the news they've just interview people out for the day at the beach.
> One family they traveled 11/2 hours said they worried about being out.
> The daughter said she thought it was good to be free to go out but worried of a 2rd peak. "As people will start to do what they won't"
> The mother was disappointed at the numbers out and lack of social distancing "it's just like tescos" 🤦‍♀️
> It was lost on them that maybe they are part of the problem.



I did laugh at that interview. It reminded me of people interviewed in cars complaining about "the traffic".


----------



## snorri (17 May 2020)

Mugshot said:


> We have a right to know.
> 
> View attachment 522991


There's another man in the UK whose messages are as garbled as that.....................................and he's fair haired too.


----------



## Slick (18 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Lord Sumption on BBC news being interviewed he's a total loon. End lock down government has no longer need of it , NHS has beds not over whelmed ,only effects old with underlaying conditions, they'd have died anyway ect, ect
> To think he was till 2018 one of Justices of the Supreme Court. Every time the BBC let him on he talk crap why they let him get away with it lord knows.


I couldn't believe what I was hearing and I don't think the news reader could either as at one point she nearly choked on some of his answers.


----------



## tom73 (18 May 2020)

Get's better this week the covid gardening squad next door. Have now managed to set the garden of the one next door to them on fire.
Which has now just taken out some of the garden of the next to that. The Fire brigade are not happy


----------



## tom73 (18 May 2020)

Day out at our beach hut darling .... Oh yes love to will just get the covid proof net we picked up from John Lewis


----------



## tom73 (18 May 2020)

Loss of taste or smell has now need added to the UK list of things to look out for. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52704417


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Loss of taste or smell has now need added to the UK list of things to look out for.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52704417


That was quick. Tim Spector, King's College, was arguing for this pretty forcefully on BBC Radio 4 this morning. A few hours later and PHE have responded. Which, of course, begs the question why they hadn't updated the symptom list earlier.


----------



## Blue Hills (18 May 2020)

In addition to Italy lifting travel restrictions it appears that from today you can also get haircuts there.
Wouldn't be surprised to see some folks combining a trip/break with a much needed trim.
At the mo you will of course have to isolate for 14 days on returning so a smidgen more savagery in the chop might be an idea so that you can grow into your new look.

<edited for typo>


----------



## PK99 (18 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Lord Sumption on BBC news being interviewed he's a total loon. End lock down government has no longer need of it , NHS has beds not over whelmed ,only effects old with underlaying conditions, they'd have died anyway ect, ect
> To think he was till 2018 one of Justices of the Supreme Court. Every time the BBC let him on he talk crap why they let him get away with it lord knows.



This, the first para of his article in the Sunday Times, summarises the nature of his wider thesis:

_*The lesson of Covid-19 is brutally simple and applies generally to public regulation. Free people make mistakes and willingly take risks. If we hold politicians responsible for everything that goes wrong, they will take away our liberty so that nothing can go wrong. They will do this not for our protection against risk, but for their own protection against criticism. 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six...isters-and-stop-covering-your-backs-kvwrnk9ww*_


----------



## Rocky (18 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> This, the first para of his article in the Sunday Times, summarises the nature of his wider thesis:
> 
> _*The lesson of Covid-19 is brutally simple and applies generally to public regulation. Free people make mistakes and willingly take risks. If we hold politicians responsible for everything that goes wrong, they will take away our liberty so that nothing can go wrong. They will do this not for our protection against risk, but for their own protection against criticism.
> 
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six...isters-and-stop-covering-your-backs-kvwrnk9ww*_


Interesting but I can't help but worry about those 'free people' who may be at risk because of other free people's mistakes. As John Rawls put it In A Theory of Justice where he argued for the most extensive basic liberty for individuals but it must be compatible with similar liberty for others. Is it fair on our health care professionals that they get infected, and possibly die, because they are treating people who ignored the risks of Covid? Is it fair that someone who needs an ICU bed, through no fault of their own, can't get one because risk taking individuals coming into hospital with Covid?

Sumption starts with a very different view of society and the protection that government should offer to me. I think government is there to protect the vulnerable, the poor and the old. I suspect until he finds himself in one of those groups, he'll stick to his libertarian views.


----------



## tom73 (18 May 2020)

1st duty of any state is to protect it's citizens. 
A virus is not a rouge state it has no fear, can't see threats made against or make a choice to break a set convention. 
A new threat needs a new response with new rules. Brake them and the risk to others is unknown. 
You can't enjoy liberty if you're dead.


----------



## PK99 (18 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Interesting but I can't help but worry about those 'free people' who may be at risk because of other free people's mistakes. As John Rawls put it In A Theory of Justice where he argued for the most extensive basic liberty for individuals but it must be compatible with similar liberty for others. Is it fair on our health care professionals that they get infected, and possibly die, because they are treating people who ignored the risks of Covid? Is it fair that someone who needs an ICU bed, through no fault of their own, can't get one because risk taking individuals coming into hospital with Covid?
> 
> Sumption starts with a very different view of society and the protection that government should offer to me. I think government is there to protect the vulnerable, the poor and the old. I suspect until he finds himself in one of those groups, he'll stick to his libertarian views.



I agree, but take away the Covid reference and we have:

_*Free people make mistakes and willingly take risks. If we hold politicians responsible for everything that goes wrong, they will take away our liberty so that nothing can go wrong. They will do this not for our protection against risk, but for their own protection against criticism.*_ 

Which poses interesting questions about our relationship with politicians in general.


----------



## Rocky (18 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> I agree, but take away the Covid reference and we have:
> 
> _*Free people make mistakes and willingly take risks. If we hold politicians responsible for everything that goes wrong, they will take away our liberty so that nothing can go wrong. They will do this not for our protection against risk, but for their own protection against criticism.*_
> 
> Which poses interesting questions about our relationship with politicians in general.


Again, I’m not sure I agree with Sumption. A government which takes away too much freedom won’t be free from criticism. They might not be criticised about the public suffering the impact of risk taking but they will be criticised for being a ‘nanny state’. Like everything, there is a balance.


----------



## Rocky (18 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> I agree, but take away the Covid reference and we have:
> 
> _*Free people make mistakes and willingly take risks. If we hold politicians responsible for everything that goes wrong, they will take away our liberty so that nothing can go wrong. They will do this not for our protection against risk, but for their own protection against criticism.*_
> 
> Which poses interesting questions about our relationship with politicians in general.


I also meant to say that it's an interesting debate - thanks for posting. It raises all sorts of questions about the role of government and whether it should be more interventionist/protectionist during risky times. I also wonder whether there is a cultural/generational aspect to this, with different groups being more accepting of a nanny state. At the moment, it feels like the population of the UK are, by and large, accepting of the current approach. But how long this will last, I'm not sure.


----------



## a.twiddler (18 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Interesting but I can't help but worry about those 'free people' who may be at risk because of other free people's mistakes. As John Rawls put it In A Theory of Justice where he argued for the most extensive basic liberty for individuals but it must be compatible with similar liberty for others. Is it fair on our health care professionals that they get infected, and possibly die, because they are treating people who ignored the risks of Covid? Is it fair that someone who needs an ICU bed, through no fault of their own, can't get one because risk taking individuals coming into hospital with Covid?
> 
> Sumption starts with a very different view of society and the protection that government should offer to me. I think government is there to protect the vulnerable, the poor and the old. I suspect until he finds himself in one of those groups, he'll stick to his libertarian views.


You beat me to it. Despite all the safeguards an allegedly civilised society has in place to protect the vulnerable and disadvantaged we are really in the following situation.

a)Do not go to work in order to protect your health and that of others, risk failing to pay your bills, becoming impoverished, maybe homeless, and increase your risk of dying. b)Go to work, risk your health and that of others, pay your bills, remain solvent, keep your home, risk becoming ill, infecting others and if you are in the at risk group (which nobody has fully identified yet -a small number of young healthy people will still die) you may die. c) Pretend nothing is happening. Live the life of denial. You might live. You might die. You might cause others to die. d) Choose your parents carefully. If you can insulate yourselves from the common masses with your wealth you have a better chance of escaping infection and its risks. That'll be about 2% of the population then.

At some stage economic pressure will be greater than the need for self preservation, at least for some, and that is where the risk of a second wave comes in. A government composed of millionaires being pressured by their millionaire friends to preserve their millionaire interests may overwhelm the need to pay attention to scientific advice.

It's Hobson's Choice isn't it. To paraphrase Tom73, the COVID-19 virus does not discriminate.

You can't anthropomorphise it, it has no feelings, it has no political agenda. It exists to propagate itself. 20% of common colds are caused by Coronaviruses which have mutated so that they can infect the greatest number of hosts without killing them thus ensuring their continuing existence. It is not in a virus's evolutionary interest to kill its host before it can spread. The trend for such viruses is to become less virulent and it may be that in the absence of an effective vaccine this is the best hope, at least in the short term. Of course, this particular virus might be the exception that proves the rule. I hope not.


----------



## tom73 (18 May 2020)

Within social science the relationship of state and the people is a long held point of debate together with how it's legitimacy to govern is challenged. As with many things at the moment it's exposed aspects of social worlds which most never even think about. 
The level of interventionist role the state is having to take is to a whole new set of rules outside political norms.
Bringing it's own set of challengers, equally many now face having to turn to government for help in ways they never thought they would. 
The same people who never understood why the state provided similar interventions for others. 
So it's no wonder some look back by fighting to maintain the only held view they ever had. 
They want the sate to keep them safe as the current treat is way too big for them to handle but equally they don't want new political norms to be one of interventions for the good of the many.


----------



## mjr (18 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> That was quick. Tim Spector, King's College, was arguing for this pretty forcefully on BBC Radio 4 this morning. A few hours later and PHE have responded. Which, of course, begs the question why they hadn't updated the symptom list earlier.


Yeah, very quick, it's only about two months since loss of smell was being added to medical warnings abroad. I wonder when PHE will add the bruised feet? Some time in June?
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/page-298#post-5924729


----------



## oldwheels (18 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Loss of taste or smell has now need added to the UK list of things to look out for.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52704417


Lack of taste or smell was mentioned in a leaflet I got right at the start of this lockdown. It came from the Scottish Government but I have lost any sense of time so cannot remember even an approximate date. It was also in an information panel on our local farcebook right at the start weeks or even months ago.


----------



## tom73 (18 May 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Lack of taste or smell was mentioned in a leaflet I got right at the start of this lockdown. It came from the Scottish Government but I have lost any sense of time so cannot remember even an approximate date. It was also in an information panel on our local farcebook right at the start weeks or even months ago.


Funny that as it only was formerly added today at the FM briefing. 
Loss of tease and smell has been around some time but as with so much about the virus knowing what's useful and not can only be done over time.


----------



## oldwheels (18 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Funny that as it only was formerly added today at the FM briefing.
> Loss of tease and smell has been around some time but as with so much about the virus knowing what's useful and not can only be done over time.


I certainly got the info. regarding taste and smell some time ago. The leaflet has been dumped and the Facebook page is no doubt somewhere but at this remove I am unlikely to find it. The information about taste and smell may just be formally announced but has certainly been known about for some considerable time. I have never seen any live briefings but get them sometime later from other media.


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## tom73 (18 May 2020)

So now anyone over 5 with signs can have a test. Testing set up can't even get the basics right without them. 
It's just numbers game, the more they test it won't magically fix the problems.


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## SpokeyDokey (18 May 2020)

Call me a sceptic if you want but this sounds remarkably like the 'Boris plan' issued just last week that Nicola trashed:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52707747#

Same in Wales too. Mark Drakeford wasn't at all keen on the coloured 1-5 risk chart but is ok with traffic lights:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52667873

Politics, politics, politics... frustrating.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> So now anyone over 5 with signs can have a test. Testing set up can't even get the basics right without them.
> It's just numbers game, the more they test it won't magically fix the problems.



This isn’t the anti body test is it?


----------



## tom73 (18 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> This isn’t the anti body test is it?


No don't be silly that's gone all quiet again.


----------



## oldwheels (18 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Funny that as it only was formerly added today at the FM briefing.
> Loss of tease and smell has been around some time but as with so much about the virus knowing what's useful and not can only be done over time.
> I have found a FB page dated 21st March giving loss of taste and smell as one of the symptoms. This is not the one I was looking for so there was obviously more than one mention of this symptom around that time.


----------



## oldwheels (18 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Funny that as it only was formerly added today at the FM briefing.
> Loss of tease and smell has been around some time but as with so much about the virus knowing what's useful and not can only be done over time.



Got in my usual fancle with thus ipad but I have posted further back about finding the info re taste and smell dated 21/03/20.


----------



## Julia9054 (18 May 2020)

Regarding sense of smell, my son has never had one. He is wondering if he gets Coronavirus if he might gain a sense of smell for the first time!


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 May 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Got in my usual fancle with thus ipad but I have posted further back about finding the info re taste and smell dated 21/03/20.


I can't be sure of the date that I became aware of it but it would have been just before that date. I remember questioning my daughter about it because it was a symptom of the virus + dry cough that I caught from her at the end of February. The grandkids only had what seemed like the usual coughs and sniffles that go around the playground.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 May 2020)

Polly Toynbee has my feelings about squandered trust down to a tee: https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-trust-coronavirus-government-pandemic-public


----------



## Rezillo (18 May 2020)

Nothing new under the sun:

https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-stlouis.html#

It's a very interesting read, particuarly what happened when they opened up too early.


----------



## Mugshot (19 May 2020)

Heard today that a local care home has lost 6 residents and currently has 18 cases.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 May 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/maria_rendon97/status/1262389337506881536


----------



## tom73 (19 May 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Heard today that a local care home has lost 6 residents and currently has 18 cases.


Some specialist group home only have around that number of residents to start with some have lost 1/2 of them already


----------



## tom73 (19 May 2020)

Call to add cycle numbers to daily transport stats at the briefing. 
Always found it odd they missed it off they say it's important then let's call it out. That way it makes its important 
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...blic-transport-cycle-lanes-bike-a9522856.html


----------



## Mo1959 (19 May 2020)

Knighthood for CaptainTom!


----------



## theclaud (19 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And this has to be one of the oddest paragraph I've ever seen in a paper
> 
> ''The group were accepting of the warning and separated, before the vast majority departed the seafront.'' But I've never been to Hunstanton so I don't know what passes for normal there.



It's the weirdest place I've ever been. And I grew up in Surrey.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 May 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/Imagineyourdad/status/1263042168324788224


yebbut nobbut


----------



## a.twiddler (20 May 2020)

Once the toothpaste is out of the tube it's hard to get it back in. Should have delayed easing lockdown (which was barely a lockdown compared with eg Spain) until more widespread testing was available. Coronavirus is not just a sniffle for many, there seems to be a link to post viral fatigue syndrome with a long recovery period, shown in previous studies of the SARS Coronavirus, with early signs of the same in COVID -19.


----------



## tom73 (20 May 2020)

So 10,000 track and tracing from 1 June. It's just even more of a number game it's just all pointless none off this is joined up it's all top down with much of the testing never getting to the bottom. It's the local base that needs sorting and funding we need to know and deal with local out breaks. Yes feed in results into a national system but ran from the bottom. With national over view, funding and recording. 
The recruitment of track and tracing is in a mess , clinically trained are not being allowed to signed up , once signed up e-learning is not ready.
Effective track and tracing is not quick phone call at some point you need to get your boot's on. As for the App it's still a total none starter. 
Then we have serco who have been allowed to run the whole thing. What can you say other then even serco ran prison don't even use serco health care.


----------



## DCLane (20 May 2020)

SWMBO tested yesterday following checks in her hospital. We'll find out in 48 hours.


----------



## Rocky (20 May 2020)

DCLane said:


> SWMBO tested yesterday following checks in her hospital. We'll find out in 48 hours.


Good luck. I hope she’s ok.......but don’t hold your breath, it took me 14 days to get my (negative) result


----------



## Tanis8472 (20 May 2020)

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/to...-with-ejection-from-commons-speaker-1-6662168


----------



## tom73 (20 May 2020)

It's going so well 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-52742519
MD's reopen join the queues sad that it's come to this 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52746790


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 May 2020)

These are apparently before and after pictures of a Covid 19 patient.


----------



## stowie (20 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> These are apparently before and after pictures of a Covid 19 patient.
> 
> View attachment 523787



Absolutely frightening.

My neighbour got COVID in early March. He is healthy and in his early 40's. He is rarely, if ever, ill.

His description of his symptons made me take isolation seriously. One night he genuinely thought he was going to die because he couldn't breathe and had constant coughing spasms. It took him over a month to fully recover _after _the symptoms went . 

And he was classed as not being ill enough as requiring any hospital treatment.

Plenty of people just feel a bit under the weather (his mother got it as well and in her 70's that was terrifying for her). Luckily her symptoms were milder and shorter lived. But if you are one of the unlucky ones then it is absolutely debilitating.


----------



## mjr (21 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> These are apparently before and after pictures of a Covid 19 patient.
> 
> View attachment 523787


No doping while in ICU?


----------



## DCLane (21 May 2020)

Those photos don't surprise SWMBO as a Dietitian - for every week someone's immobile they lose 5kg of muscle. That's a lot of recovery time and the photo shows he's on a PEG feed so needs a re-feeding process.


----------



## mjr (21 May 2020)

Brace yourself for another surge by the anti-masker/anti-vaxxer nobbers after Sky News decided to emphasise some careless words by the leader of a study of cloth masks, rather than how well they protect in asymptomatic cases. Example https://www.originalfm.com/news/hea...-covid-19-study-says-but-there-are-downsides/


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 May 2020)

What appears to me to be very bad news indeed: the rate of infection is stable rather than dropping. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...oronavirus-in-england-remains-stable-says-ons

If this is true, there's no prospect of relaxing lockdown at all without an immediate second wave, and it seems near impossible to have track and trace effective with these numbers, so we're in for a very long wait for improvement. 

Hopefully I've misinterpreted something.


----------



## raleighnut (21 May 2020)

DCLane said:


> Those photos don't surprise SWMBO as a Dietitian - for every week someone's immobile they lose 5kg of muscle. That's a lot of recovery time and the photo shows he's on a PEG feed so needs a re-feeding process.


I thought that was a chest drain.


----------



## tom73 (21 May 2020)

raleighnut said:


> I thought that was a chest drain.


No it's a PEG feed or the Dr is still practicing at going chest drains


----------



## matticus (21 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What appears to me to be very bad news indeed: the rate of infection is stable rather than dropping.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...oronavirus-in-england-remains-stable-says-ons
> 
> ...


I note that it says "second snapshot": 


> The second snapshot of Covid-19 rates in the community, taken by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), found that 137,000 people – 0.25% of the population – had coronavirus at any given time during the two weeks from 4-17 May.



So my reading is that they only have 2 data points using this methodology. You can't get any kind of trend from 2 data points, so my call is to await further data. And stay alert


----------



## marinyork (21 May 2020)

Study estimates only 7% of stockholm had virus by 1st May 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...dies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus

Bad news as a low percentage for a country with few restrictions. Good news as it suggests social distancing or something else outside hard restrictions can stop huge swathes of a population getting the virus.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Study estimates only 7% of stockholm had virus by 1st May
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...dies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus
> 
> Bad news as a low percentage for a country with few restrictions. Good news as it suggests social distancing or something else outside hard restrictions can stop huge swathes of a population getting the virus.


Whereas it's estimated at only 5% in the UK outside London. The 17% estimate for London sounds about right to me, even a little low. I think many people had it before anybody really knew what it was.


----------



## mjr (21 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Whereas it's estimated at only 5% in the UK outside London. The 17% estimate for London sounds about right to me, even a little low. I think many people had it before anybody really knew what it was.


So... Expect 390'000 UK deaths (excess not reported cases) unless a vaccine comes before everyone's caught it, a treatment is found, or something else saves us?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (21 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Whereas it's estimated at only 5% in the UK outside London. The 17% estimate for London sounds about right to me, even a little low. I think many people had it before anybody really knew what it was.



Ah, the hipster virus


----------



## marinyork (21 May 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Whereas it's estimated at only 5% in the UK outside London. The 17% estimate for London sounds about right to me, even a little low. I think many people had it before anybody really knew what it was.



I'd tuned out of the news for a while so missed this today. If 17% is up to date, that sounds about right. If it's quite old data it sounds high (but that's good news).

The 5% rest of the country figure is interesting as I'd expect a bit of variation in parts of the north west and west midlands.


----------



## marinyork (21 May 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-contact-tracing-group-warns-of-difficulties

first contract tracing in the UK regrettably comes up against a brick wall of issues.


----------



## mjr (21 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'd tuned out of the news for a while so missed this today. If 17% is up to date, that sounds about right. If it's quite old data it sounds high (but that's good news).
> 
> The 5% rest of the country figure is interesting as I'd expect a bit of variation in parts of the north west and west midlands.


Yeah, but the govt just sees us all as "not London".


----------



## mjr (21 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-contact-tracing-group-warns-of-difficulties
> 
> first contract tracing in the UK regrettably comes up against a brick wall of issues.


Most vexing is it sounds like you call up the contact of an infected person, tell them to quarantine, they tell you to fark off and there's no back-up to make them.


----------



## tom73 (21 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-contact-tracing-group-warns-of-difficulties
> 
> first contract tracing in the UK regrettably comes up against a brick wall of issues.



Not looking good is it ? 
None of this feels joined up or well thought out. The whole thing just feels like Hancock in a toy shop. Told you can only have one but want’s to try every thing and gets fed up and moves on to the next.


----------



## midlife (21 May 2020)

Not sure what would happen if I tested positive, I guess track and trace would identify I had contact today with three hospital departments.... multiple consultants, nurses, staff, admin. All not social distanced because of constraints in the size of the buildings. 

Close 3 hospital departments and send all into isolation?


----------



## newfhouse (22 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Most vexing is it sounds like you call up the contact of an infected person, tell them to quarantine, they tell you to fark off and there's no back-up to make them.


World beating, apparently.


----------



## Rocky (22 May 2020)

newfhouse said:


> World beating, apparently.


I’d settle for virus beating.......


----------



## tom73 (22 May 2020)

newfhouse said:


> World beating, apparently.


Yep world beatingly bad after all he never said it would be world beating in a good way.


----------



## tom73 (22 May 2020)

midlife said:


> Not sure what would happen if I tested positive, I guess track and trace would identify I had contact today with three hospital departments.... multiple consultants, nurses, staff, admin. All not social distanced because of constraints in the size of the buildings.
> 
> Close 3 hospital departments and send all into isolation?



mmmmm not sure the call centre script let's them say oh S....
A clinical tracer would have to work out the risk and probably the clinical judgment would get lost in the system.


----------



## mjr (22 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yep world beatingly bad after all he never said it would be world beating in a good way.


That just reminds me of





From https://dilbert.com/strip/1993-02-18

The recent strips are virusy, if anyone likes that sort of thing. Edit: seems to start https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-04-20


----------



## Cuchilo (22 May 2020)

I've just heard on the radio that the banks are to extend the mortgage holiday by an extra three months . This makes me think there is something we are not being told .


----------



## vickster (22 May 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> I've just heard on the radio that the banks are to extend the mortgage holiday by an extra three months . This makes me think there is something we are not being told .


Will that not just coincide with the end of the current furlough period or thereabouts


----------



## Cuchilo (22 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Will that not just coincide with the end of the current furlough period or thereabouts


Dont know to be honest . I took the holiday so my next payment will be in July . As i only have two years left to go i dont think i could afford to extend the holiday as it would make my payments for the next two years un-affordable .


----------



## vickster (22 May 2020)

Cuchilo said:


> Dont know to be honest . I took the holiday so my next payment will be in July . As i only have two years left to go i dont think i could afford to extend the holiday as it would make my payments for the next two years un-affordable .


Yes. I don't have a mortgage now so didn't really pay much attention (and I'm still working anyhow). I don't know if it'll be possible to extend the duration of the mortgage?


----------



## PK99 (22 May 2020)

I don't recall seeing this referenced here:
Great counterpoint argument to the Ferguson inspired lockdown.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1800&v=DKh6kJ-RSMI&feature=emb_logo


----------



## Ming the Merciless (22 May 2020)

Immune cell numbers collapse in more severely affected patients.

Coronavirus: Immune clue sparks treatment hope https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52754280


----------



## rualexander (22 May 2020)

More evidence for the benefits of face coverings in public places.


View: https://youtu.be/zhQw7vLNsDA


I was out at the supermarket earlier and probably only about 5% of people were wearing masks/coverings despite it being government advice to do so, it now needs to be made mandatory unfortunately.


----------



## marinyork (22 May 2020)

rualexander said:


> I was out at the supermarket earlier and probably only about 5% of people were wearing masks/coverings despite it being government advice to do so, it now needs to be made mandatory unfortunately.



Everything's dropped off now. High levels of traffic, larger groups, larger and more common interhousehold groups and as you face hardly any face coverings. Pubs, restaurants and so on not open, nor are schools are universities, but attitudes are near normal minus those things.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> I don't recall seeing this referenced here:
> Great counterpoint argument to the Ferguson inspired lockdown.
> 
> 
> View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1800&v=DKh6kJ-RSMI&feature=emb_logo




Interview here

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/

_Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000_.

These figures are flat out impossible. The whole of the UK has suffered mortality of ~0.1% already. For her assertion to be correct between 100 and 1000% of us have already been infected. It's nonsense. 

Reputable estimates of IFR are typically in the 0.5-1% range. See for example 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2


----------



## Tanis8472 (22 May 2020)

Hardly surprising knowing that shower of shoot

https://amp.theguardian.com/politic...oronavirus-lockdown?__twitter_impression=true


----------



## brodiej (22 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Interview here
> 
> https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/
> 
> ...



In March when she published her model she was quoted directly in the FT as follows
"We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now"

2 months later and after multiple serological studies from all over the world have all shown much lower rates than she predicted we suddenly hear
"As she sees it, the antibody studies, although useful, do not indicate the true level of exposure or level of immunity"


----------



## marinyork (23 May 2020)

Not an important story or particularly informative, but may be written as indicative of what the health workers population and maybe more general population will start to see in coming weeks/months.

BBC reporter tests antibody positive in shocker to him.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52762939


----------



## Rezillo (23 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Not an important story or particularly informative, but may be written as indicative of what the health workers population and maybe more general population will start to see in coming weeks/months.
> 
> BBC reporter tests antibody positive in shocker to him.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52762939



It's interesting, though, as he is unwilling to believe that his pneumonia in January may have been the cause as it predates the first known UK cases. He may be right but more instances could come to light as this kind of testing kicks off.

France has found a case from December via re-testing hospital specimens.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554


----------



## Tenacious Sloth (23 May 2020)

It wouldn’t surprise me if they discovered we had it in this country since last year.

I was layed up for most of January with a bug that seemed to mirror the Covid-19 symptoms very closely. Persistent dry, hacking cough, high temperature and fluid on/in my lungs. It took me a few weeks to shake it off.

Obviously, I don’t know that it was Covid that I had - but it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to discover I have the antibodies. I don’t expect that these more accurate tests will become available to the general public any time soon though.


----------



## marinyork (23 May 2020)

Rezillo said:


> It's interesting, though, as he is unwilling to believe that his pneumonia in January may have been the cause as it predates the first known UK cases. He may be right but more instances could come to light as this kind of testing kicks off.
> 
> France has found a case from December via re-testing hospital specimens.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554



Absolutely. We also know that (I think this is correct as of writing) that the first death reported in the UK had 4-5 that preceded it in other geographical areas and settings, with quite a number just after it as well, whereas I think what he's written about the first confirmed case is still true (as there wasn't much testing and other factors). Other studies point to the virus circulating in larger numbers than thought in January in the UK. It wouldn't surprise me if it was discovered that the virus started circulating in the UK at the end of December and certainly earlier in January than was confirmed.

I think some of it's probably journalistic integrity and ethics. If I were writing the article although it's personal, there is a sizeable minority of UK society that think they had the coronavirus in December/January. Some of those people will be correct. Many will be wrong. I would not particularly be wanting to write something, nor would my editor want it played up the yeah I had flu in January and people read that and then it changes behaviour. Some people say yeah I had the coronavirus in January and behaviours change substantially such as seeing neighbours, friends and family in large groups all the time or giving up hand washing and distancing. I've had this with my dad the last few months where he's had a number of infections and been PCR tested 4x and serology tested 2x. Whatever he had as of the time (or shortly before) wasn't the virus. There will be people over the next 2 months (many will be care and home workers) who test antibody positive so I expect the article is written for them.

I have a friend that think he had it in December. I am slightly curious as like the BBC reporter if I've had it then I either had it in February or been asymptomatic. Similarly I know my father hasn't had it (phew).


----------



## Eziemnaik (23 May 2020)

A more cynical man, a man less trusting the mass media would say that Cummings story is just a dead cat gov threw on the table


----------



## mjr (23 May 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> A more cynical man, a man less trusting the mass media would say that Cummings story is just a dead cat gov threw on the table


What do you think they're distracting from?


----------



## pawl (23 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Everything's dropped off now. High levels of traffic, larger groups, larger and more common interhousehold groups and as you face hardly any face coverings. Pubs, restaurants and so on not open, nor are schools are universities, but attitudes are near normal minus those things.




It really annoys me the current attitude of certain members of the general public regarding social distancing What is it they don’t understand? Yes the new rules state we can travel as far as we like for EXERCISE.To me exercise means just that not having barbecues on beaches As a 79 year old I will continue to abide by the previous rules Since lockdown I have only had to travel a total distance of aprox 15 miles for essential items I am unable to obtain locally 

Comment sense seems to be in short supply.

EDIT Now of course it looks as though I should have included Dominic Cummings


----------



## mjr (23 May 2020)

pawl said:


> What is it they don’t understand? Yes the new rules state we can travel as far as we like for EXERCISE.To me exercise means just that not having barbecues on beaches


What is it you don't understand? The new rules in England are that you can travel as far as you like to any open air recreation, even if it's a beach barbecue or picnic. See 6(ba) in https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/6


----------



## Tenacious Sloth (23 May 2020)

mjr said:


> What is it you don't understand? The new rules in England are that you can travel as far as you like to any open air recreation, even if it's a beach barbecue or picnic. See 6(ba) in https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/6


You don’t expect people to read the _actual_ rules do you?

Much easier to get the ‘purity spiral’ version off social media.


----------



## rualexander (23 May 2020)

Tenacious Sloth said:


> It wouldn’t surprise me if they discovered we had it in this country since last year.
> 
> I was layed up for most of January with a bug that seemed to mirror the Covid-19 symptoms very closely. Persistent dry, hacking cough, high temperature and fluid on/in my lungs. It took me a few weeks to shake it off.
> 
> Obviously, I don’t know that it was Covid that I had - but it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to discover I have the antibodies. I don’t expect that these more accurate tests will become available to the general public any time soon though.


But the possibility of earlier infections doesn't explain what would therefore be a large lag time until the peak of infections and deaths in early April.
Maybe early on it was less infectious and/or less lethal of course.
But it seems that it isn't mutating significantly.


----------



## silva (23 May 2020)

In Belgium data reported to politicians upon asking stated that 70% of the current SARS epidemy deaths were people in facilities for elderlies under state regulated care. Their average age was about the same as the countries one.
Yesterday I came across data from US State Pennsylvania. About the same.
If these two samples have any world representation (I don't care that much to start looking it all up, have more useful things to do) then it's like police shooting down entire village while hunting 2 thieves hiding in the local bank. Weird cops?


----------



## Eziemnaik (23 May 2020)

mjr said:


> What do you think they're distracting from?


Laughable quality, clarity and lack of general direction in their response to the crisis


----------



## mjr (23 May 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Laughable quality, clarity and lack of general direction in their response to the crisis


In which case, Cummings is a good cat to kill, as his paw prints seem to be on those things!


----------



## mjr (23 May 2020)

This mentions a model that suggests strongly that if Boris had done a proper lockdown a week earlier, instead of his "would you mind awfully bankrupting pubs and cafes?" routine, the UK would have had 75% fewer deaths.

More or Less: Behind the Stats: School re-opening, Germany's Covid-19 success and statistically savvy parrots http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08dnd81


----------



## PK99 (23 May 2020)

mjr said:


> This mentions a model that suggests strongly that if Boris had done a proper lockdown a week earlier, instead of his "would you mind awfully bankrupting pubs and cafes?" routine, the UK would have had 75% fewer deaths.
> 
> More or Less: Behind the Stats: School re-opening, Germany's Covid-19 success and statistically savvy parrots http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08dnd81



That calculation is dealt with in the article:
https://unherd.com/thepost/how-much-difference-would-an-earlier-shutdown-have-made/

_So it’s not as simple as lockdown a week earlier –> two fewer doublings –> 75% reduction in deaths. If we’d moved the entire process forward by a week — school closures, behaviour changes, everything — that might have done it; but a lot of behaviour change was driven by seeing what was happening elsewhere. Britons saw Italy and China and became rightly scared. It’s not easy to see how we’d have brought that forward.

In their report, More or Less addressed another point, which is that the model also assumes that an earlier lockdown would have been as fully complied with as the one that actually happened; a big assumption, given that a week earlier, people might not have been so scared. That caveat hasn’t made it into any of the other coverage.

None of this is to say that an earlier lockdown would not have saved lives. It almost certainly would. But the stark claim that it would have prevented 75% of deaths — 30,000, so far — is wildly overconfident and I think should be reported with far more uncertainty; the true figure could be much lower._


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 May 2020)

Add in that, as we all saw, lockdown was ignored by more and more people as time went on so if we’d gone in earlier, many would have been coming out earlier.


----------



## mjr (23 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> That calculation is dealt with in the article:
> https://unherd.com/thepost/how-much-difference-would-an-earlier-shutdown-have-made/


I think it avoids the point rather than deals with it!

Is it still arch-conservative Tim Montgomerie in charge at the sinisterly-misnamed "unherd"? Anyway, it's no surprise when such a deeply establishment-elite site defends the establishment. As yet, Cummings's lockdown-busting isn't on their home page, but the Prof Gupta one is both lead headline and "Don't miss"!


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## mjr (23 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Add in that, as we all saw, lockdown was ignored by more and more people as time went on so if we’d gone in earlier, many would have been coming out earlier.


And it would have mattered less, with fewer cases around. That's not an "add in" by the way: it's even in the bit quoted above.

But I think you're wrong and more decisive less dithery action would have inspired more trust and participation.


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## Rusty Nails (23 May 2020)

While it is undoubtedly true that lives would have been saved by earlier action it is not possible, with any level of certainty, to say that any figure, say 75%, of deaths would have been saved.

A model is just that, a model that depends on ifs, buts and assumptions. If you don't like one model others are available.


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## PK99 (23 May 2020)

mjr said:


> I think it avoids the point rather than deals with it!
> 
> Is it still arch-conservative Tim Montgomerie in charge at the sinisterly-misnamed "unherd"? Anyway, it's no surprise when such a deeply establishment-elite site defends the establishment. As yet, Cummings's lockdown-busting isn't on their home page, but the Prof Gupta one is both lead headline and "Don't miss"!



A deeply disappointing ad hominem response rather than addressing the point made - but this is cycle chat, after all, i should not be surprised.


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## mjr (23 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> A deeply disappointing ad hominem response rather than addressing the point made - but this is cycle chat, after all, i should not be surprised.


Oh come on. That ultra conservative elite AstroTurf "unherd" site has been cited a couple of times this week as if it's a serious and balanced publication. Someone was always going to point out it's a British Breitbart wannabe and that's the best defence you can muster? I bet you're disappointed that the central politburo propaganda department has been spotted for what it is.

It wasn't ad hominem anyway because I attacked no one for just being who they were - I attacked their awful actions - but I expect someone will now complain it's pedantic to point out that lie!

And what point was made anyway? It seemed to be that there's a gibberish piece defending the government, which I dealt with.


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## roubaixtuesday (23 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> That calculation is dealt with in the article:
> https://unherd.com/thepost/how-much-difference-would-an-earlier-shutdown-have-made/
> 
> _So it’s not as simple as lockdown a week earlier –> two fewer doublings –> 75% reduction in deaths. If we’d moved the entire process forward by a week — school closures, behaviour changes, everything — that might have done it; but a lot of behaviour change was driven by seeing what was happening elsewhere. Britons saw Italy and China and became rightly scared. It’s not easy to see how we’d have brought that forward.
> ...



How on earth does that "deal" with the point.

Far from "dealing" with it, it merely caveats it. 

Let's say it's only half as bad as the basic model suggests. Thay would still mean a week earlier would have saved half of those lost. 

And if we'd done what Greece did (yes. GREECE, that model of good governance, actually followed WHO guidance), we'd have saved 90% of those lost and already be out of lock down.


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## silva (23 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Add in that, as we all saw, lockdown was ignored by more and more people as time went on so if we’d gone in earlier, many would have been coming out earlier.


More and more? Heh, day 1 after politicians announced forced closures of shops/companies, people fleed en masse to shops to empty racks. Alike that wasn't predictable. How ignorant / stupid can politicians be? Or weren't they, and did they want to help the virus to spread? Feel free to chose...


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## srw (23 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Oh come on. That ultra conservative elite AstroTurf "unherd" site has been cited a couple of times this week as if it's a serious and balanced publication.


Just because you don't like the person making the claim doesn't mean they're not making a decent point. Actually I think they are. A claim of one week earlier --> 75% fewer deaths is oversimplistic, for exactly the reasons set out by the website you decry.


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## Milzy (23 May 2020)

silva said:


> More and more? Heh, day 1 after politicians announced forced closures of shops/companies, people fleed en masse to shops to empty racks. Alike that wasn't predictable. How ignorant / stupid can politicians be? Or weren't they, and did they want to help the virus to spread? Feel free to chose...


They went for the original herd immunity plan, there's nothing more to say.


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## Rusty Nails (23 May 2020)

srw said:


> Just because you don't like the person making the claim doesn't mean they're not making a decent point. Actually I think they are. A claim of one week earlier --> 75% fewer deaths is oversimplistic, for exactly the reasons set out by the website you decry.



Too often people take a particular stance on an issue, which may or may not be valid, and then lean too heavily on statistics/data from sources that support that stance.


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## silva (23 May 2020)

Milzy said:


> They went for the original herd immunity plan, there's nothing more to say.


I was talking about the country I live in, BE. No such plan here.


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## mjr (23 May 2020)

srw said:


> Just because you don't like the person making the claim doesn't mean they're not making a decent point. Actually I think they are. A claim of one week earlier --> 75% fewer deaths is oversimplistic, for exactly the reasons set out by the website you decry.


That'll be why it wasn't the claim made. Of all people, I thought you'd understand the uncertainty of "strongly suggests" better than that.

As I wrote earlier, that article avoids the point. It uses whataboutery and accusations of misreporting but without much basis for either, except for the author's waffle.


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## srw (24 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Of all people, I thought you'd understand the uncertainty of "strongly suggests" better than that.


No. "Strongly suggests" is far too strong. "Might be the case if you make a lot of simplifying assumptions" is as strong as I would be happy to go.


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## Tanis8472 (24 May 2020)

Blimey


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## Slick (24 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Blimey
> 
> View attachment 524562
> 
> ...


Its been removed now.


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## glasgowcyclist (24 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Blimey
> 
> View attachment 524562
> 
> ...



Whoever did that was clearly acting on their instinct. Well done!


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## rualexander (24 May 2020)

Promising news on the vaccine development situation (if you're a Rhesus Macaque anyway).
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-05/bidm-bvp051920.php

Also covered in the latest video from Dr John Campbell, as is the news from the Oxford vaccine programme.


View: https://youtu.be/DdIIwNyB1AA


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## Tanis8472 (24 May 2020)

Slick said:


> Its been removed now.



It was gone within minutes of me seeing it


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## perplexed (24 May 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> It was gone within minutes of me seeing it



The Cabinet Office have Tweeted to say they are going to be investigating the Tweet.

You'd think that perhaps a more important priority would be to investigate Cummings and Johnson, given the damage they've most likely done to the Government's own advice.


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## mjr (26 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It seems that current research studies show that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine don’t work for Covid19 and may even do harm for some patients.
> 
> https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1432


WHO suspends trials after more evidence of the above www.france24.com/en/20200525-who-halts-study-of-coronavirus-drug-hydroxychloriquine-trump-touted


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## mjr (26 May 2020)

It's not in the English version of the site, but the Franco-German tracking app "stopCovid" has got the green light (feu vert) from France's National Centre for IT and Freedom. Of course it's decentralised, unlike the NHSX one - did you need to ask? https://www.france24.com/fr/2020052...feu-vert-à-l-application-de-traçage-stopcovid


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## tom73 (27 May 2020)

Lot of news noise around the idea of local lockdowns following on from what Hancock had to say yesterday. 
Heard the communities secretary this morning talking about how the test , track and trace will allow this happen.
"if the system works as we hope it can be used on quite a micro level"
So we are going to open up even more and still have no idea if this will work or not. Is this virus on the government payroll? 
If so it's one easy job just sit back and let everyone else do the work for you.


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## mjr (27 May 2020)

Study suggests only six months immunity after recovery https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/25...-may-only-last-just-six-months-says-new-study


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## raleighnut (27 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Study suggests only six months immunity after recovery https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/25...-may-only-last-just-six-months-says-new-study


Not only that but the virus has shown an incredible ability to mutate so any immunity to a particular 'strain' of it may not produce an antibody response to a different one.


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## marinyork (27 May 2020)

PHE and MHRA ban home tests temporarily https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...alt-coronavirus-home-antibody-test-deliveries but hypocritically buy the same ones for NHS workers.

It isn't clear whether the very soon better ones being available is hot air, empty promises or good intentions.


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## DaveReading (27 May 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Not only that but the virus has shown an incredible ability to mutate so any immunity to a particular 'strain' of it may not produce an antibody response to a different one.



I've read reports that it isn't mutating any more than the average virus (if their is such a thing).

Can you point to any evidence either way?


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## Rezillo (27 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Study suggests only six months immunity after recovery https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/25...-may-only-last-just-six-months-says-new-study



That's actually talking about four strains of the common cold, with an as yet untested assumption that Covid-19 as another coronavirus will behave the same way.


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## raleighnut (27 May 2020)

DaveReading said:


> I've read reports that it isn't mutating any more than the average virus (if their is such a thing).
> 
> Can you point to any evidence either way?


https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&r...-coronavirus&usg=AOvVaw2zBRcTwYzEe-w8ogFb0mjE


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## mjr (27 May 2020)

Rezillo said:


> That's actually talking about four strains of the common cold, with an as yet untested assumption that Covid-19 as another coronavirus will behave the same way.


More encouragingly, the usual professor (Yves Coppieters) was saying on the lunchtime TV news today that there may be some mutual immunity between SARS-nCov-2 and other coronaviruses. Studies have started to check this. However, the test-and-trace approach is being credited with Belgium's new cases continuing to fall (137 yesterday, a fall of 61), a week into phase 2 of lockdown relaxing.


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## marinyork (27 May 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52820592

Track and trace to start on Thursday.

I think as with the app there could the risk of alert fatigue. What happens to somone if over a 2 or 3 month period the tracers or app tells someone to isolate multiple times for 14 days? It's ludicrous. As the virus chain is tested at the start and circles will go around, this could go round in loops. If you have symptoms you are tested. If you don't you aren't even if deemed high risk by the tracers lol. 50 50 gamble on whether someone is asymptomatic.

Scientists think it'll stop between 5 and 15% of cases.


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## marinyork (27 May 2020)

Isle of Man does it differently

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/isle-of-man-accused-authoritarian-lockdown-measures


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## Joey Shabadoo (27 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52820592
> 
> Track and trace to start on Thursday.
> 
> ...


And what happens if you're told to self-isolate but you feel a pressing need to load the family in the car and drive to a secluded cottage?


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## LCpl Boiled Egg (27 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> And what happens if you're told to self-isolate but you feel a pressing need to load the family in the car and drive to a secluded cottage?



That's absolutely fine. Although if your vision is a bit dodgy, go for a 30 mile test drive first, to make sure you can drive safely.


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## marinyork (27 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> And what happens if you're told to self-isolate but you feel a pressing need to load the family in the car and drive to a secluded cottage?



I think if someone is deemed high risk they should be tested even without symptoms. That seems fecking ridiculous when a lot more tests are available than March and April. Otherwise it is in people's interest to say they have symptoms anyway. Someone could repeatedly be asked to isolate either because they haven't had the virus or have already had it and been asymptomatic.

The tracers are supposedly going to check up on people but with those arriving from other countries having to be checked up on too this may be far too large a task.


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## marinyork (27 May 2020)

Another slightly bizarre and worrying story that needs scrutiny

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-asthma-patients-they-are-off-shielding-list


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## DaveReading (27 May 2020)

raleighnut said:


> https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjMms3T-9PpAhVnSxUIHbOsDL4QFjAAegQIBxAB&url=https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/is-there-more-than-one-strain-of-the-new-coronavirus&usg=AOvVaw2zBRcTwYzEe-w8ogFb0mjE



I'd hardly class that as evidence of "an incredible ability to mutate".


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## RoadRider400 (27 May 2020)

I cannot see this track and trace scheme being anything but an abject failure. It relies heavily on trust in the government, and that was shot to bits over the bank holiday


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## mjr (27 May 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> I cannot see this track and trace scheme being anything but an abject failure. It relies heavily on trust in the government, and that was shot to bits over the bank holiday


Indeed. The previously-linked Sheffield test suggests that Brits don't trust actual medics phoning up and telling them they need to quarantine themselves, so what chance do hired script-readers in gov.uk call-centres have?

I fear the only way to make this stick would be to activate quarantine orders and their legal penalties, but that would obviously inspire more tough questions about Cummings.


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## mjr (27 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52820592
> 
> Track and trace to start on Thursday.


As in tomorrow (in which case why not say "tomorrow"?), or next Thursday, or wasn't Boris that specific about which Thursday? 



> Scientists think it'll stop between 5 and 15% of cases.


Why so few? That seems much lower than how track-and-trace has been praised for limiting outbreaks elsewhere.


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## Ming the Merciless (27 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> And what happens if you're told to self-isolate but you feel a pressing need to load the family in the car and drive to a secluded cottage?



No problem but don’t forget a 60 mile round trip to check eyesight before returning.


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## Ming the Merciless (27 May 2020)




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## marinyork (27 May 2020)

mjr said:


> As in tomorrow (in which case why not say "tomorrow"?), or next Thursday, or wasn't Boris that specific about which Thursday?
> 
> Why so few? That seems much lower than how track-and-trace has been praised for limiting outbreaks elsewhere.



I did wonder myself when it was first announced as next thu is 4th June rather than in May.

As for the low rate, I didn't see all of Boris or Matt earlier so I don't know, but they probably didn't say either. They was a plea from Hancock to stay in and do your civic duty.


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## midlife (27 May 2020)

Not sure how many people would like to take 2 weeks leave or 2 weeks unpaid on the say so of a contract tracer? Whole system doesn't seem to have teeth?


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## craigwend (27 May 2020)

mjr said:


> As in tomorrow (in which case why not say "tomorrow"?), or next Thursday, or wasn't Boris that specific about which Thursday?



Yeh but not which Thursdays, when is Thursday?
I've lost the plot what day of the week it is...


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## midlife (27 May 2020)

Looks like they are going to be busy tracing in Weston Super Mare tomorrow..

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...eston-general-hospital-test-positive-11995796


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## marinyork (27 May 2020)

midlife said:


> Not sure how many people would like to take 2 weeks leave or 2 weeks unpaid on the say so of a contract tracer? Whole system doesn't seem to have teeth?



Or have it happen two, three, of four times. If you aren't tested then there's a good chance you'll never know.


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## midlife (27 May 2020)

Might be an idea to test hospital staff even if asymptomatic , lots of people worried they might catch it and are staying at home getting Very poorly!


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## marinyork (27 May 2020)

midlife said:


> Might be an idea to test hospital staff even if asymptomatic , lots of people worried they might catch it and are staying at home getting Very poorly!



That's happening in hospitals and has done for ages. Granted I live near a set of hospitals with a large testing capacity. The respiratory ward my father was on the staff had been tested multiple times.


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## marinyork (27 May 2020)

Test and trace.



> This means you should stay at home and not leave it for any reason - including leaving the house to buy food or medicine. Instead, you should order these online or by phone or ask someone to deliver them to your home.



People not already ordering on-line are not going to be able to queue jump and get food orders. Who is going to deliver to your home lol, most people don't have servants like Matt and Boris.


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## midlife (27 May 2020)

Staff on Covid Hot wards might be tested but no other staff at our place. Only tested if symptomatic. Not allowed to book k a test outside the hospital as all testing goes through occupational health.


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## mjr (27 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> That's happening in hospitals and has done for ages. Granted I live near a set of hospitals with a large testing capacity. The respiratory ward my father was on the staff had been tested multiple times.


Whereas I don't think my relative who works at Weston general was tested before this week because she's not treating c19 patients and even now, aren't they only testing for current infection not antibodies?

BTW, that hospital building is awful in my experience as patient and visitor over many years. It's a typical late twentieth century cross between an office block (floor tiles, ceiling tiles, headache-inducing fluorescent light squares, ...) and a greenhouse (glass atrium, half-glazed porches, ...). Modern buildings like at Cambridge or Norwich make it look very poor but I guess that's the standard of hospital a town with loads of retirement homes and rehabs gets lumbered with


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## marinyork (27 May 2020)

midlife said:


> Staff on Covid Hot wards might be tested but no other staff at our place. Only tested if symptomatic. Not allowed to book k a test outside the hospital as all testing goes through occupational health.



That sounds bad.

Well let's hope the newer tests being trialled the antibody test and saliva test pass the trials and a bit more of capacity is freed up.


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## marinyork (27 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Whereas I don't think my relative who works at Weston general was tested before this week because she's not treating c19 patients and even now, aren't they only testing for current infection not antibodies?



They have bought all these antibody tests to apparently use on NHS staff. One quote said next week, but well we'll see...

See you same time next werk?


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## mjr (27 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> I did wonder myself when it was first announced as next thu is 4th June rather than in May.


Tomorrow, says https://news.sky.com/story/99-minut...-didnt-say-that-was-most-interesting-11995721


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## steve292 (28 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Whereas I don't think my relative who works at Weston general was tested before this week because she's not treating c19 patients and even now, aren't they only testing for current infection not antibodies?
> 
> BTW, that hospital building is awful in my experience as patient and visitor over many years. It's a typical late twentieth century cross between an office block (floor tiles, ceiling tiles, headache-inducing fluorescent light squares, ...) and a greenhouse (glass atrium, half-glazed porches, ...). Modern buildings like at Cambridge or Norwich make it look very poor but I guess that's the standard of hospital a town with loads of retirement homes and rehabs gets lumbered with


And no A + E . It's going to get worse here I fear. The beach was packed out last w/e with people from all over, including from Wales. Clevedon marine lake was the same. No attempts at social distancing at all in most cases.


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## marinyork (28 May 2020)

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/nhs-test-and-trace-how-it-works

Test and trace guidelines.

Totally different rules if you are the suspected first node in the graph .

If you are the first node, you and your family can do what you want if you test negative. If you are the second node you cannot leave even if you test negative, however if you have a test and test positive you can leave isolation in some cases before than if you test negative!!!!

If you are the second node and don't show or declare symptoms the rest of the household can go about things normally.

If the testing and trace system is very slow then there may not be much practical difference between the above.

BBC news said this morning that a chaotic system in crowded workplaces or communicated could mean 14 days isolation, two days back and another 14 days as it slowly tracked around the workplace.


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## DCLane (28 May 2020)

Locally the police have failed to stop gatherings, parties, etc. for the past 9 weeks. How are they expected to deal with this when they couldn't cope with the numbers they could monitor visibly?

'Stay in for 14 days' = "I don't care" to many I'm afraid.


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## LCpl Boiled Egg (28 May 2020)

Oh look, track and trace is a go. Back to school kids!

No thanks Dom, I'll keep shielding with my Yr 1 and wait for the second wave and the second (harsher) lockdown.


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## Milzy (28 May 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> Oh look, track and trace is a go. Back to school kids!
> 
> No thanks Dom, I'll keep shielding with my Yr 1 and wait for the second wave and the second (harsher) lockdown.


There's all this talk of a second wave. I don't think it will be. Many countries are back to almost fully normal doing fine although it seems strange. Looks like we've become experts in stopping highly contagious diseases already.


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## deptfordmarmoset (28 May 2020)

Milzy said:


> There's all this talk of a second wave. I don't think it will be. Many countries are back to almost fully normal doing fine although it seems strange. Looks like we've become experts in stopping highly contagious diseases already.


It's worth having a look at what's happening in South Korea.


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## Mo1959 (28 May 2020)

Milzy said:


> There's all this talk of a second wave. I don't think it will be.


A staff nurse I know said they had had meetings and predict another peak in June, then November. Not sure where they get the data from. I think we will still get a few peaks in the months to come, hopefully nothing like the first though.


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## Milzy (28 May 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> A staff nurse I know said they had had meetings and predict another peak in June, then November. Not sure where they get the data from. I think we will still get a few peaks in the months to come, hopefully nothing like the first though.


I'm still Furloughed. It would be most frustrating to go back next week and then be sent home again. Not realistic IMHO.


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## marinyork (28 May 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ronavirus-infection-rate-too-high-second-wave

David Hunter


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## Mo1959 (28 May 2020)

Milzy said:


> I'm still Furloughed. It would be most frustrating to go back next week and then be sent home again. Not realistic IMHO.


Agree............and I don't know how much longer peoples patience will last to be honest.


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## marinyork (28 May 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> A staff nurse I know said they had had meetings and predict another peak in June, then November. Not sure where they get the data from. I think we will still get a few peaks in the months to come, hopefully nothing like the first though.



Government modelling in late January which was then repeated in feb and march said a nightmare second wave in the winter. It's one of the widely talked about ones.

For the present the number of people with the virus is still high above 100,000 and it takes a month or two to widely circulate. 

Flu normally (lots of people said unrealistic to model on flu) has second winter waves.


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## roubaixtuesday (28 May 2020)

We have the highest per capital death toll in the world for any countries with comparable data.

https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

The reason appears very simple: we dithered too long before acting. Even though we had the example of Italy to follow.

Myself and others were saying this before lockdown and ever since. Now the data confirms it.







The death toll in the UK was avoidable and is a scandal. The government should be held to account.


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## Low Gear Guy (28 May 2020)

The spread of Coronavirus will only be stopped by mass vaccination or herd immunity so a second peak seems inevitable.

There is a small possibility of limiting serious infections and deaths by identifying and isolating the most vulnerable. I don't think this is achievable as bending of the lockdown rules has not been limited to the young and healthy.


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## mjr (28 May 2020)

Poland to require masks less from this weekend, also to allow packed shops and gatherings of up to 150 people. https://tribune.net.ph/index.php/2020/05/27/poland-scraps-mandatory-masks-despite-many-infections/

Poland's current prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki is a Nazi-defending former bank chairman and economist from the "Law and Justice" party. What could possibly go wrong?


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## marinyork (28 May 2020)

BBC confirms from Matt Hanock for test and trace that even those who have had cast iron documentation they have the virus recently they have to self isolate for 14 days from last contact. 

Immunity doesn't last forever, but serological studies really need pinning down on this for a bit more certainty. This is a complete joke. 

For larger workplaces, carehomes and hospitals this is going to be a complete nightmare if the rules are followed with contact tracing slowly belting around large workplaces and people rotated off work permanently or as seen in previous test not cooperating due to the above.

It isn't clear what PPE means in the definitions either.


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## mjr (28 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The reason appears very simple: we dithered too long before acting. Even though we had the example of Italy to follow.


And now the dithering continues with Boris's evasion and waffling about track and trace orders to self isolate. It doesn't have a chance IMO without using the powers in the Public Health Act to order people to quarantine, but that in itself is politically impossible without most tests being processed in a day or two, rather than the current four days if you're lucky and never if you're not. Oh and firing Cummings so there's some chance of people respecting government instructions again.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 May 2020)

mjr said:


> And now the dithering continues with Boris's evasion and waffling about track and trace orders to self isolate. It doesn't have a chance IMO without using the powers in the Public Health Act to order people to quarantine, but that in itself is impossible without most tests being processed in a day or two, rather than the current four days if you're lucky and never if you're not.



Oh, absolutely. We're now easing lockdown without the necessary test, track and trace, *and* simultaneously have destroyed public trust in the government. 

It's a total clusterfùck, and objectively has killed more people than anywhere else in the world despite having more notice than most. 

I don't think most people remotely realise just how disastrously our country has handled this.


----------



## DCLane (28 May 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> A staff nurse I know said they had had meetings and predict another peak in June, then November. Not sure where they get the data from. I think we will still get a few peaks in the months to come, hopefully nothing like the first though.



SWMBO's NHS trust is preparing for it. It's basic viral maths predictions: 
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OLpKqTriio


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## marinyork (28 May 2020)

mjr said:


> And now the dithering continues with Boris's evasion and waffling about track and trace orders to self isolate. It doesn't have a chance IMO without using the powers in the Public Health Act to order people to quarantine, but that in itself is politically impossible without most tests being processed in a day or two, rather than the current four days if you're lucky and never if you're not. Oh and firing Cummings so there's some chance of people respecting government instructions again.



The article above, Hunter, refers to scientists who apparently said our track and trace may only stop 15% of cases because we haven't had a system and the amount or the virus in the community is currently too high to necessarily expect a higher figure. 

So should have got it up and running a bit sooner before easing restrictions.


----------



## Mo1959 (28 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> So should have got it up and running a bit sooner before easing restrictions.


We seem to have been too late with everything from day one!


----------



## marinyork (28 May 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> We seem to have been too late with everything from day one!



A tracing system doesn't rely on something that may be very challenging such as a treatment, writing an app or even a safe vaccine that has some partial benefit. So that was why I used should.


----------



## marinyork (28 May 2020)

200,000 tests a day is a target that is for capacity not actuality. It includes antibody tests lol. Well it means they have to do some antibody tests, but apart from that more headline grabbing backslapping targets. Perhaps on 31st May we'll all have the police knocking on our door demanding an antibody test that takes 2 weeks to come back so Matt can reach his target.



> Health Secretary Matt Hancock has now replied to a letter from stats referee the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) that was sent to him on 11 May.
> The UKSA asked him to clear up the confusion about the government’s target to achieve 200,000 Covid-19 tests per day by the end of May.
> Statements in Parliament by Hancock and the prime minister left it unclear whether the target was to conduct those tests each day or have the capacity to do so, and indeed what sort of tests would be counted.
> It turns out that the target is for capacity to test, and will include capacity for antibody tests, which are those to find out if people previously had the virus.
> It will also include the capacity for tests being sent out to a random cross-section of society by statisticians, as well as those conducted on people actually displaying symptoms.


----------



## marinyork (28 May 2020)

French study on those with mild symptoms finds there is an antibody response. Level and length of immunity unknown. However, contrary to commentary on the issue by some in the last few months.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...coronavirus-infection-does-lead-to-antibodies


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 May 2020)

More expert opinion that we're relaxing too far ahead of the infection rates and test track and trace programme. 

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ronavirus-infection-rate-too-high-second-wave


----------



## raleighnut (28 May 2020)

I see reports that the T&T website has crashed already.


----------



## marinyork (28 May 2020)

Vallance says more evidence in a paper will be published shortly explaining aerosol distances.


----------



## matticus (28 May 2020)

Groups of 6 - socially distanced - now allowed outdoors!


----------



## marinyork (28 May 2020)

Whitty seems to say if you stay 2 metres apart you won't be regarded as high risk by the contract tracers?

This doesn't sound right. Wonder what the clarified version of that one says.


----------



## Julia9054 (28 May 2020)

matticus said:


> Groups of 6 - socially distanced - now allowed outdoors!


In other words . . . see what the general public are already doing and make that the rule! 
(Also, I don't have 5 friends 😢)


----------



## mjr (28 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> In other words . . . see what the general public are already doing and make that the rule!


It's the thrilling new concept of "leadership by following belatedly"!


----------



## DCLane (28 May 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> In other words . . . see what the general public are already doing and make that the rule!
> (Also, I don't have 5 friends 😢)



Agreed. It appears Boris is just reacting to what's happening around him and deciding that's the new 'normal'.


----------



## midlife (28 May 2020)

Read on the BBC news that dentists can open 8th June. Might have been better to have told us first rather than reading it on the news....


----------



## tom73 (28 May 2020)

So some tracers can't even log onto the system.
You have no way to prove if someone who contacts you is official or not. 
The app is still not ready and looking even more a dead duck.
Still no guarantee that you get a test or it come back quick enough to mean anything. 
Many still can't even get to a test centre. 
The results reporting still is not joined up and results get lost with no hope of GP's getting the results. 
Someone you live with can be contacted and told they need to self isolate but you are free to carry on unless you get symptoms.
No word on if you can have to be paid when told to self isolate or any help for employers is most of the work force end up having to take two weeks off. 
You can find yourself going into and out of isolation over and over again. 
The R rate is still not fully under control and is still too high for much to wrong.
The death rate though down is still increasing.
But yet the government is racing to open up even more and allowing even more options to met with others. 
Once you get your mates round and beer gets going social distancing is not going to happen. 

So what can possible go wrong as the unlock race heats up ?


----------



## tom73 (28 May 2020)

midlife said:


> Read on the BBC news that dentists can open 8th June. Might have been better to have told us first rather than reading it on the news....



Yes that just slipped out along the way not very official way is it?


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## midlife (28 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes that just slipped out along the way not very official way is it?



At 8.52am this morning the chief dental officer released 2 documents called A Prompt to Prepare. Written 19th May but only just cleared for release today. Saying that we must prepare to reopen

Not sure when the next missive was released but is now on the General Dental Council website. 

Better get planning!


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## raleighnut (28 May 2020)

Aye Maz has been saying that she wants a Barbeque and has been looking on line for prices so her Son and his family can come round,



tom73 said:


> Once you get your mates round and beer gets going social distancing is not going to happen



I've told her to look up the price of Buckets cos they ain't coming in the house.


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## marinyork (28 May 2020)

The personal transport guidance has changed but doesn't seem to be as clear as it could be.


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## tom73 (28 May 2020)

The death total that has now just become an after thought as if it's normal that's still sadly increasing. 
As of this morning the known deaths of health and social care workers now stands at 240.


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## mjr (28 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> You have no way to prove if someone who contacts you is official or not.


Not even a web page on gov.uk to type a code given over the phone and see a green badge authenticating the date and time of the call?!?


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## tom73 (28 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Not even a web page on gov.uk to type a code given over the phone and see a green badge authenticating the date and time of the call?!?


No nothing so with one ask for your email address and a simple click here your computer and all your data are toast.


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## mjr (28 May 2020)

Six allowed to meet outside from Monday, says https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...t-outside-under-new-measures-to-ease-lockdown

Does this mean small very spaced group rides become legal?


----------



## Pat "5mph" (28 May 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> Until there is a vaccine, there will be a steady daily number dying in the background, nobody caring unless they suffer a personal loss.





tom73 said:


> The death total that has now just become an after thought as if it's normal that's still sadly increasing.
> As of this morning the known deaths of health and social care workers now stands at 240.


I think my own quote is from last month.


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## Ming the Merciless (28 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Six allowed to meet outside from Monday, says https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...t-outside-under-new-measures-to-ease-lockdown
> 
> Does this mean small very spaced group rides become legal?



Groups larger than six are already gathering (not cycling but teenagers seen in local park)


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## Milzy (28 May 2020)

Asked a nurse what she thought about this. Her reply was well we've got loads of spare beds up and down the country now so it's ok, we should just crack on. I was like WTF? Expecting her just to say ohhh it's too soon. Some nurses are so cold but I expect they have to deal with bad things so it's how they are.


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## Adam4868 (28 May 2020)

mjr said:


> Six allowed to meet outside from Monday, says https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...t-outside-under-new-measures-to-ease-lockdown
> 
> Does this mean small very spaced group rides become legal?


It means Snow White is fecked....


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## Archie_tect (28 May 2020)

Everyone braced for scam texts/calls on your mobile asking for mobile and email contact details of everyone you've met in the last 14 days?


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## Archie_tect (28 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Groups larger than six are already gathering (not cycling but teenagers seen in local park)


There were 30+ teens on the school playing field hidden away from general view having what looked like a picnic/BBQ and a mass party with music on Tuesday. We only saw them because we were walking on a rarely used bridleway that skirts the school boundary.


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## mjr (28 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Everyone braced for scam texts/calls on your mobile asking for mobile and email contact details of everyone you've met in the last 14 days?


Like those scam ones from "GOVUK" last week telling vulnerable people they are no longer entitled to food deliveries?


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## marinyork (28 May 2020)

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...nce-on-transmission-of-covid-19-28-april-2020

Think this was posted 20 pages back but worth a flick through after Vallance talked about it today.


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## marinyork (29 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> There were 30+ teens on the school playing field hidden away from general view having what looked like a picnic/BBQ and a mass party with music on Tuesday. We only saw them because we were walking on a rarely used bridleway that skirts the school boundary.



In parks the average size group was probably already 6 to 8 for a week or so. I see several groups of 15 to 30 in parks each day. It's creeping upwards each day.

It's not just the size of the groups, but that the last few days there seems to be no social distancing. The groups are generally sat 50cm to 1 metre apart, although in quite a few cases despite being even closer people are sat side by side which carries a lower risk than if literally facing at the same distance. On the other hand I circle back later and some groups are still there 2 hours later. The closeness, length of time and size of group mean if you go through any of SAGE's tables it's fairly sizeable. I have even seen the same groups together on different days.


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## mjr (29 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's not just the size of the groups, but that the last few days there seems to be no social distancing. The groups are generally sat 50cm to 1 metre apart, although in quite a few cases despite being even closer people are sat side by side which carries a lower risk than if literally facing at the same distance. On the other hand I circle back later and some groups are still there 2 hours later. The closeness, length of time and size of group mean if you go through any of SAGE's tables it's fairly sizeable. I have even seen the same groups together on different days.


Anyone planning to meet up outside might like to download the excellent pttdroid (Push To Talk anDROID) app for Android and set one of their phones as a wifi hotspot, then launch the app on all phones. It's less effort/risk than shouting at each other and doesn't lag as much as using mobile data (because the transmission is line of sight not around base stations and faraway interconnects).

Sadly, I don't know if there's a similar wifi walkie-talkie app for iPhones, let alone if there's a compatible one.

https://f-droid.org/wiki/page/ro.ui.pttdroid


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## Edwardoka (29 May 2020)

Based upon the total collapse of adherence or caution I witnessed from normally sensible people yesterday, (10 people from 5 households having a barbecue, and not socially distancing, 2 high risk people and 1 who works in a care home) I'm revising my original estimate from months ago of "tens of thousands" to "hundreds of thousands".


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## raleighnut (29 May 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Based upon the total collapse of adherence or caution I witnessed from normally sensible people yesterday, (10 people from 5 households having a barbecue, and not socially distancing, 2 high risk people and 1 who works in a care home) I'm revising my original estimate from months ago of "tens of thousands" to "hundreds of thousands".


Sadly I think you may be right.


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## LCpl Boiled Egg (29 May 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Based upon the total collapse of adherence or caution I witnessed from normally sensible people yesterday, (10 people from 5 households having a barbecue, and not socially distancing, 2 high risk people and 1 who works in a care home) I'm revising my original estimate from months ago of "tens of thousands" to "hundreds of thousands".



The preferred solution for the Government has always been herd immunity, and now that the PM and Boris, I mean Cummings, have recovered from it they don't give a hoot. Not that they ever did of course, but the smaller the herd, the quicker they'll achieve their objective. Who cares about the death rates, you can only die once so they'll come down eventually...

Political ambitions put before public health.

Bastards.


----------



## mjr (29 May 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> The preferred solution for the Government has always been herd immunity, [...]


On that note, news from Belgium: "Herd Immunity Is Still Only A Far-Away Dream" as they've tested blood donations and under 5% have c19 antibodies: https://www.lavenir.net/cnt/dmf2020...lective-n-est-encore-qu-un-reve-tres-lointain

There are several possible explanations, several of which are scary.


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## marinyork (29 May 2020)

Yesterday at press conference it was announced 6.78% of the UK population are antibody positive.


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## raleighnut (29 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Yesterday at press conference it was announced 6.78% of the UK population are antibody positive.


Yep we all need to do our patriotic duty and catch Covid 19 now that BoJo the clown has had it, come on lets face it if the immunity only lasts 6 months he's terrified he might get it again for Christmas.


----------



## tom73 (29 May 2020)

All the talk today i've been hearing is all about ''oh can't wait for thing to get back to normal" and life post lock down. 
Had a guy on the radio this morning saying mixed messages are dentist are allowed to open but not hairdressers. Your in closer contact with the dentist was his over all argument. The fact that the dentist is a clinical environment and can with extra PPE , and different working conditions control the risk to you , the staff and the guy next in after you. Was totally lost on him never mind the next changers coming on Monday we already seen the weekends are being out the loon on mass now it's just going to be even worse and less controlled. All the talk of the last clap for cares yes it did at time get silly and a bit oh look at me. But talking about being right time to end as it's done want it needed to ect. Is not helping the care still go's on and will go on with covid still around. Care will not being going back to normal anytime soon either. 

The virus is not going away any time soon once the pubs "officially" open that's it game over and something will return to normal the high death count for one. The tone and frankness of Valance and Witty , the latter particularly was clear things are on a knife edge they don't sound too much in rush to open things up. So It's going to interesting if the government say we are guided by the science or just want to get the tax money rolling in. Which speed they really start to pick. Many of us have put up with and gone out of our way to do the right thing and keep everyone safe. Many have worked bloody hard to keep everyone safe often at great risk many have died doing it. We are in danger of it all going to waste and i'm not going to be the only unhappy bunny.


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## mjr (29 May 2020)

The view from my window on the A10 makes me think most people are now pretty much ignoring even the law, let alone the guidelines, and doing what they think best.

The sensible ones doing stuff like meeting up in groups outside and keeping their distance (which Boris has now belatedly legalised) and basically following WHO advice rather than gov.uk/mixed-messages will probably be OK, while the mistaken fools doing stuff like having lockdown parties indoors and BBQs are going to be the bulk of kickstarting a second wave, putting my relatives and friends in harm's way again. 

Also, I had hoped to go to the coast and see the sea for the first time this year, before the madness of the next unlocking phase hit next week, but that now seems like a very bad idea so I'll be riding out across the empty fens again this weekend. 

Better government would have saved more of the fools from themselves. Yes, @tom73, I'm a very unhappy bunny too!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> All the talk today i've been hearing is all about ''oh can't wait for thing to get back to normal" and life post lock down.
> Had a guy on the radio this morning saying mixed messages are dentist are allowed to open but not hairdressers. Your in closer contact with the dentist was his over all argument. The fact that the dentist is a clinical environment and can with extra PPE , and different working conditions control the risk to you , the staff and the guy next in after you. Was totally lost on him never mind the next changers coming on Monday we already seen the weekends are being out the loon on mass now it's just going to be even worse and less controlled. All the talk of the last clap for cares yes it did at time get silly and a bit oh look at me. But talking about being right time to end as it's done want it needed to ect. Is not helping the care still go's on and will go on with covid still around. Care will not being going back to normal anytime soon either.
> 
> The virus is not going away any time soon once the pubs "officially" open that's it game over and something will return to normal the high death count for one. The tone and frankness of Valance and Witty , the latter particularly was clear things are on a knife edge they don't sound too much in rush to open things up. So It's going to interesting if the government say we are guided by the science or just want to get the tax money rolling in. Which speed they really start to pick. Many of us have put up with and gone out of our way to do the right thing and keep everyone safe. Many have worked bloody hard to keep everyone safe often at great risk many have died doing it. We are in danger of it all going to waste and i'm not going to be the only unhappy bunny.



Indeed. If you look at all the other countries in Europe relaxing restrictions, they have far lower infection rates than us. Except Sweden. Go figure.







From our world in data.


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## tom73 (29 May 2020)

Following on from the 100+ party and fighting last weekend. Looks like we now need stewards to marshal crowds in the countyside 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-52846310
Not to worry good old British common sense will see us though.


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## Milzy (29 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Following on from the 100+ party and fighting last weekend. Looks like we now need stewards to marshal crowds in the countyside
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-52846310
> Not to worry good old British common sense will see us though.


People were scared at first. Now they're not. I feel sorry for the elderly and people with existing conditions but it's those who need to be careful. If it was such a deadly virus we'd all still be in lock down.


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## midlife (29 May 2020)

I'd call 60,000 excess deaths quite deadly IMHO.....


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## tom73 (29 May 2020)

midlife said:


> I'd call 60,000 excess deaths quite deadly IMHO.....


Plus we still don't know what the longer term effects are on one who recover some are still having bad after effects weeks later.


----------



## mjr (29 May 2020)

Milzy said:


> People were scared at first. Now they're not. I feel sorry for the elderly and people with existing conditions but it's those who need to be careful. If it was such a deadly virus we'd all still be in lock down.


How, without a competent government setting an example and - more importantly - regulations that the police can actually enforce?

And are we really back to the myth that it only kills the old and ill?


----------



## tom73 (29 May 2020)

It looks like even the government is now ignoring it's own made up virus threat level. Which we got told had to fall to open up even more part's of lock down. It's not moved but the lockdown is still on the move. Now they've moved from following the science to listening to science . You can't change the R number just because you don't like what you see and you can't stop being guided by science just because you don't like what it means. This is a virus it won't care if you just forget about it and move on to next big thing. It's not like the latest in thing. It's will just go on killing people you can't offend it's feelings. This is a public health issues science both clinical and social are the only way out of this. 
Fobbing off both is a passport to much worse and even more long term damage.


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## marinyork (29 May 2020)

Lockdown fatigue has happened.

Media boredom has happened. The public can only put up with so many weeks/months of virus/war/famine/earthquake/wildfires before tuning out. The media themselves kind of lose interest after a few weeks to. How many people here remember swine flu? How many remember there was a second wave? For the second wave of this a new public information message will be needed.


----------



## Rocky (29 May 2020)

This is a tweet from a consultant at Barts and the London






I hope Boris and Hancock read this.......this is far from over.


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## Slick (29 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> This is a tweet from a consultant at Barts and the London
> 
> View attachment 525997
> 
> ...


There's more than that pair that need to read that.


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## marinyork (29 May 2020)

Documents released today say that only 50% of people self isolate when they have symptoms.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-symptoms-not-isolating-sage-track-and-trace

If you are a second node with no symptoms I don't see how that's going to work for 14 days if ^^ is true, especially if you get symptoms later have a test and told to stay inside your residence.

Also of interest:

"Government scientific advisers expressed caution about the efficacy of the planned track-and-trace system, which was rolled out across England on Thursday, saying that for it to work, around 80% of non-household contacts would have to be traced and isolated within 48 hours of the first person experiencing symptoms.

This would need about 30 contacts to be tested per case, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, which reports to the health department, said in meetings in April, adding: “Beyond that, benefits would be marginal.”


----------



## steve292 (29 May 2020)

mjr said:


> The view from my window on the A10 makes me think most people are now pretty much ignoring even the law, let alone the guidelines, and doing what they think best.
> 
> The sensible ones doing stuff like meeting up in groups outside and keeping their distance (which Boris has now belatedly legalised) and basically following WHO advice rather than gov.uk/mixed-messages will probably be OK, while the mistaken fools doing stuff like having lockdown parties indoors and BBQs are going to be the bulk of kickstarting a second wave, putting my relatives and friends in harm's way again.
> 
> ...


I would stay away from WSM for a while @mjr Its going up here much faster than the rest of the sw of england and patients are now being taken to the BRI (SIL is a ward sister in charge of 2 covid wards) People are behaving as if it has never happened. I have never seen so many idiots in one place.


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## Ming the Merciless (29 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Documents released today say that only 50% of people self isolate when they have symptoms.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-symptoms-not-isolating-sage-track-and-trace



and some drive 260 miles with symptoms and head out on sight seeing trips. Boris Johnson calls this responsible behaviour.


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## Rocky (29 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> Documents released today say that only 50% of people self isolate when they have symptoms.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-symptoms-not-isolating-sage-track-and-trace
> 
> ...


We've missed the boat for track and trace by two months. The numbers of infections are too big. The government has destroyed the public health message. If only tracing had been done early on, it would have worked. Why develop an UK specific app, which still doesn't and won't work? We'll muddle through this with more deaths, more damage to the economy and we'll find our citizens excluded from other countries without 14 day quarantine period (I think Greece is opening its borders to EU citizens but not UK).

We seem to have become the sick man of Europe again..........


----------



## marinyork (29 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> We've missed the boat for track and trace by two months. The numbers of infections are too big. The government has destroyed the public health message. If only tracing had been done early on, it would have worked. Why develop an UK specific app, which still doesn't and won't work? We'll muddle through this with more deaths, more damage to the economy and we'll find our citizens excluded from other countries without 14 day quarantine period (I think Greece is opening its borders to EU citizens but not UK).
> 
> We seem to have become the sick man of Europe again..........



A track and trace system should have been worked on far sooner. 

Others expressed surprise at the local trial down the hill. I wasn't. Without starting off WW3 I'm not particularly surprised that care workers would be quite hard to guide behaviours in the right direction as it interacts with managers, their livelyhood and the nature of the sector. It's something I've seen first hand where outsiders interact with these things. Similarly I was sceptical contact tracers would get their hands dirty and delve into any more complex multi-generational dwellings with a lot of interaction between households and workplaces. This wasn't part of the trial. This is something Singapore in hindsight has found difficult.

In general I'm more optimistic about the tech solutions. I think the app has it's merits especially in the sort of workplace that I erm won't be working in any time soon, but it's been screwed up. With the level, length of data retained for the contact tracing stuff I think the contact tracing has major data protection issues around it and as the government said one goes with the other - that statement is correct as they both collect a lot of data, the app is more invasive, but compared I think there may be less difference than made out. Similarly I'm more in favour of tech solutions helping like antibody tests (which have been approved), passports and so on, not because they will magically sort anything out, but because the problems to be overcome are so immense that a few extra things used here and there done right can help. 

John Edmunds from SAGE was on BBC news earlier and should be on more often. He sounded quite sceptical about the aspects of track and trace I am. From a behaviour point of view which is something neither of us know a lot about, track and trace and multiple 14 day quarantines over the summer when the perception of the virus is now it's going away is hard to see working. Then when the winter comes as he seemed to be hinting, people have got tired of being quarantined a 2nd or 3rd time when it matters and things get very bad.


----------



## tom73 (29 May 2020)

Being told to isolate is once things open up and FB once again gets going seeing your friends enjoying stuff and your at home not feeling ill. Your going to to be heading to the pub as quick as you can. 
None compliance is going to be a real issue Post lockdown. 
Borris and co talk about locking stuff down again if things go wrong. Well it’s going to take some strong leadership to bring it back. The press will be all over it going the blame game act. The public will not take having the toys taken away again. Given the lack to date it’s all sadly cry wolf the human cost of all this will sadly be massive.


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## midlife (29 May 2020)

Most people in my profession have been mulling over the Chief Dental Officer request to open up Dentistry again.

As most people I know I'm a hospital consultant dentist so a bit different from the high Street but banned all the same as it was a total blanket lockdown. Like all hospital services that were stopped to allow the expansion of COVID treatment its awkward to start again keeping everything safe with an R value hovering around 1 and 8000 infections a day plus lock down lifted and back to school.

Making the wider NHS covid secure is not going to be easy or cheap as it's likely not going away anytime soon so changes to estate (reposing whole buildings etc) will have to be permanent.

Should have taken retirement at 60 lol


----------



## Unkraut (29 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> For the second wave of this a new public information message will be needed.


I've just caught up with a program I missed yesterday and Prof Streeck, who is doing the study on the worst hit town here, reckons there will not be a second wave. No claim to certainty was made, but it was nice to hear somewhat more optimistic news for a change.

Personally I suspect the chances of avoiding a new outbreak rely on the public not starting to think it's all over and returning to normal behaviour as existed before the outbreak. A case of living with the virus a bit longer rather than pretending it has gone away.


----------



## tom73 (30 May 2020)

How can we make the situation even worse ? mmmm oh how about removing 1000's from the shielding list without even notifying GP's. 
Just to spice it up a bit at the same time tell some they have to carry on shielding. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52848903


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## Venod (30 May 2020)

This was posted in The Dominic Cummings thread by @mudsticks, some people in this thread may not have seen it.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...sons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown


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## mudsticks (30 May 2020)

https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0 

Oh and while you're reading cheery news. 

From that lefty bastion of commie news - the Financial Times


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## tom73 (30 May 2020)

I don't know how to even start with what this really represents. 
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...al-emergency-services-memorial-Prince-William
Yes fine remember emergency services with a memorial to mark the ones who die on duty due to acts of violence or one off unavailable situations. But don't re work it to reflect the fact that some have died from a virus which is totally preventable with right PPE. As if it's bound to happen and part of the job. To make it even worse don't have a Dr dressed in the very PPE that many never had.


----------



## Slick (30 May 2020)

Before all this really kicked off here, I watched in horror as the stories came out of China from the comfort of my hotel in South Africa. Even then, I never thought for a single second we would need to deal with that and worse but I did fear for countries like South Africa just because of how the majority lived in such close contact sharing toilets and water taps and the like. Once again, I can't believe that those fears are pretty much unfounded as they are using existing skills and experience to fight their own fight and now my concern (out with our own border) must be for the USA. I have family over there and speaking with them they seem to have been caught up in the American attitude that the virus isn't the only other thing at play here, although I know they are following the local rules. I switched on CNN this morning to see pictures of lots of young people partying in a huge pool during memorial day celebrations and surprise surprise, somebody who attended has tested positive for covid-19. I know per capita we are up there with the worst performers but at this moment in time I reckon it's not going to end well any time soon over the pond.  

I know this should really be in it's own thread but the current riots over there must just be making a bad situation much worse.


----------



## midlife (30 May 2020)

The experience of COVID in Africa seems to be completely different to the west, lots of young people on that continent?


----------



## marinyork (30 May 2020)

midlife said:


> The experience of COVID in Africa seems to be completely different to the west, lots of young people on that continent?



If you look elsewhere in the world like Iran, that has a very young population and yet got affected badly by covid-19.

It does seem to take 1-2 months in very loose terms for the virus to circulate to get really bad (started Nov in China and bad in January, January/feb in many western countries and very bad in march/april and sadly to the present). There isn't much testing in Africa (hey a few western countries know a thing or two about that). It may be ab it early to judge .


----------



## Slick (30 May 2020)

midlife said:


> The experience of COVID in Africa seems to be completely different to the west, lots of young people on that continent?


There are lots of old people too, so I think it goes deeper than that. Their experience tracking outbreaks like Ebola is part of that from what I can tell.


----------



## tom73 (30 May 2020)

One of the best accounts of Covid i've seen. How many more like Winston must we have before everyone wakes up and really stops playing at this? 
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2...spatches-from-intensive-care?CMP=share_btn_tw


----------



## tom73 (30 May 2020)

Public health by diary I must have missed that book. Clearly the government has read it I did say it would be interesting to see if they follow the science or the need to get the money rolling in. It looks like the money is way in front and that covid looks to have signed one of the most costly sponsorship deals in history . Even Van-Tam who not been great is now making it clear he's not happy. Just what science are they following ? Even the daily chat shows that the curve is higher now than when we went in to lock down. One hospital is already closed due to spike in covid numbers now with basically unlimited meet ups , unlimited chance of none compliance , unlimited disinterest in public health.
Now add in watching sports round at your mates with little chance of them ripping the prized 90 inch all singing smart TV off the wall and taking outside. It's just a car crash in waiting.
Even now next door are playing host to a BBQ with lord knows who I give up


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 May 2020)

We seem to have completely farking lost it as a country. 

Went past a posh country pub today doing "takeaways".

Huge queue. Rammed car park for customers for "takeaways". Rammed beer garden for consuming said "takeaways".

This is nuts. And surely illegal to boot.


----------



## marinyork (30 May 2020)

My neighbours having the nth bbq. On Monday it will be within the rules if they keep the numbers a bit lower.

Went past a cafe that had a sign saying it was reopening.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (30 May 2020)




----------



## midlife (30 May 2020)

Crikey that's stark, no wonder the government have stopped the comparison graphs at the daily briefing!


----------



## fossyant (30 May 2020)

A friends daughter went to Blackpool today. They couldn't see the sand due to being rammed with folk. Not good. We popped to Crosby last weekend but it was cold and windy. Pretty empty. Wouldn't entertain it in warm weather.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (30 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 526310



Yebbut Sunak says not to worry about that and get down the shops. Even the non-essential ones will be open soon....


----------



## Edwardoka (30 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 526310


So what you're saying is, it's barbecue time


----------



## tom73 (30 May 2020)

midlife said:


> Crikey that's stark, no wonder the government have stopped the comparison graphs at the daily briefing!


Not the only thing that gone missing for a week the number of people tested has been missing. 
So either they don't want to us to know it's not good enough for a safe unlock or it's so bad they've stopped bothering with counting.


----------



## tom73 (30 May 2020)

So we still have 100's of deaths a day yet we get this

View: https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1266758277041401857?s=21

On a side note remember Dido Harding who is in charge of track and trace ?
She on the board of the Jockey club can't see a problem


----------



## midlife (30 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Not the only thing that gone missing for a week the number of people tested has been missing.
> So either they don't want to us to know it's not good enough for a safe unlock or it's so bad they've stopped bothering with counting.



Did you see the scenes from Durdle Door today? People at work just cannot believe the government and the general public.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52864454


----------



## marinyork (30 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> So we still have 100's of deaths a day yet we get this
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1266758277041401857?s=21
> 
> ...




That is one of the strangest things I have seen all these weeks.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 May 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidCollinsST/status/1266796102688399360


----------



## Tanis8472 (30 May 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/SaintRoo23/status/1266758511431737346


----------



## tom73 (30 May 2020)

midlife said:


> Did you see the scenes from Durdle Door today? People at work just cannot believe the government and the general public.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52864454


Yes spotted that I'm slowly losing it everyone going demob happy it's madness


----------



## tom73 (30 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> That is one of the strangest things I have seen all these weeks.


I know it's bonkers


----------



## Rusty Nails (30 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> So we still have 100's of deaths a day yet we get this
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1266758277041401857?s=21
> 
> ...




Wasn't she on the organising committee of this year's Cheltenham Festival? Pity there was no T&T then.


----------



## Mugshot (31 May 2020)

Triple tweet incoming;


View: https://twitter.com/PembsRPU/status/1266827691451387907?s=20



View: https://twitter.com/PembsRPU/status/1266818887288606720?s=20


How many have they missed?


----------



## mjr (31 May 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 526310


Why's Germany in the middle?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 May 2020)

I'm guessing America is going to see a bit of a spike after the current spate of "street parties"


----------



## PK99 (31 May 2020)

midlife said:


> The experience of COVID in Africa seems to be completely different to the west, lots of young people on that continent?



Life expectancy at birth: UK 81, SA 63
% >65 : UK18.4% SA 6%


----------



## tom73 (31 May 2020)

So contact tracing has been up and running since Thursday and no official word on how many have been traced. 
We are told 25,000 tracers can do 10,000 a day with around 8,000 new cases a day with lockdown as it is at the moment. 
An R rate that's still too high to mess things up 10,000 capacity will become snowed under pretty quick once open season fully gets going. 
political parties of any colour love sticking numbers and targets to things but this is not a political matter is a public health one. A virus won't care if you back track and slow down. We still have time to pull this back , we still have time to save lives but sadly the death rate no longer matters ,life no longer matters ,the NHS no longer matters, it may just about cope again but the staff can't do this all again. The ones sat at home waiting for the shifts to end can't do this all again. The county can't either but as long as the racing is back on for Matt it will be fine.


----------



## IaninSheffield (31 May 2020)

PK99 said:


> Life expectancy at birth: UK 81, SA 63
> % >65 : UK18.4% SA 6%
> 
> View attachment 526435


In the current world of less than helpful visualisations, I'd have hoped the ONS could do better. Those data really do need picking apart.


----------



## srw (31 May 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> In the current world of less than helpful visualisations, I'd have hoped the ONS could do better. Those data really do need picking apart.


Follow the actuaries' CoVid-19 response group on LinkedIn. There's a ton of in-depth analysis and links to some decent visualisation.


----------



## tom73 (31 May 2020)

100's attend east london party last night
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52859984

This morning we have this


View: https://twitter.com/nick_mcavaney/status/1267064445987172352?s=21


Once we open up it can only get better


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (31 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> 100's attend east london party
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52859984
> 
> 
> ...




Not really a party though is it?

Edit: You've linked to a report on an actual party, then included a tweet about the Black Lives Matter protest, which was what I was commenting on. A bit confusing, don't you agree?


----------



## Salty seadog (31 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> 100's attend east london party last night
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52859984
> 
> This morning we have this
> ...




I'm not opening up.


----------



## mjr (31 May 2020)

Comparing politicians to Dominic Cummings seems to be a theme in today's international press. There's this at AP: https://apnews.com/349aacd2f75623d39a1093a7e7f37675

And this from NBC: https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/28...iticians-who-ve-bent-or-broken-lockdown-rules

Among a few others


----------



## CanucksTraveller (31 May 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> Not really a party though is it?
> 
> Edit: You've linked to a report on an actual party, then included a tweet about the Black Lives Matter protest, which was what I was commenting on. A bit confusing, don't you agree?


The party was mentioned first (with link), and then @tom73 said "_and this morning,_ we have this", followed by the Trafalgar Square Tweet. It read clearly to me.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (31 May 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> The party was mentioned first (with link), and then @tom73 said "_and this morning,_ we have this", followed by the Trafalgar Square Tweet. It read clearly to me.



Yes, having read it again it's a bit clearer.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (31 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> So we still have 100's of deaths a day yet we get this
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1266758277041401857?s=21
> 
> ...




Seems a bit weird him tweeting horse racing as good news. His job is Health not Sport, so his focus should be on the former.


----------



## marinyork (31 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Seems a bit weird him tweeting horse racing as good news. His job is Health not Sport, so his focus should be on the former.



Well what he was was really wanting to tweet was champagne and top hats. But horse racing sounded slightly more mainstream.


----------



## tom73 (31 May 2020)

Jenny Harries don't sound that convincing either that the government is not going too fast with this. 
Yet again it's been made clear by the experts don't mess this up. 
Who else thinks Robert Jenrick is such a smug git ?


----------



## Slick (31 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Jenny Harries don't sound that convincing either that the government is not going too fast with this.
> Yet again it's been made clear by the experts don't mess this up.
> Who else thinks Robert Jenrick is such a smug git ?


The quintessential public school boy with a face only a mother could love.


----------



## Adam4868 (31 May 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Seems a bit weird him tweeting horse racing as good news. His job is Health not Sport, so his focus should be on the former.


He's the mp for Newmarket and maybe recieved donations from people in the horse racing industry 
Or it's just one of those coincidences....


----------



## marinyork (31 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Jenny Harries don't sound that convincing either that the government is not going too fast with this.
> Yet again it's been made clear by the experts don't mess this up.
> Who else thinks Robert Jenrick is such a smug git ?



It is worrying. Policy wise I don't see what can be done. The public have given up on strict social distancing outside and it's mild social distancing outside. What goes on on inside environments I have no idea.

What equates to what R(t) I don't know, but it could take 3 months to get down to low levels apparently seen in other countries at this rate. Or a second wave sooner. You can't keep the public cooped up for another month in groups of 2. I think the sports stuff is well motivated. The opening up of other stuff could have been delayed 2 or 3 weeks.

The policy makers do have some tricks up their sleaves we didn't have earlier, but all of these things are running behind schedule and taking time to do.

Local restrictions or lockdowns are inevitable. That part doesn't worry me, just that the government decided not to do that with London so we have nothing to go on how that will work out. In some other countries it appears to have worked and some others not.


----------



## mjr (31 May 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> He's the mp for Newmarket and maybe recieved donations from people in the horse racing industry
> Or it's just one of those coincidences....


No maybe about it. Matt Hancock constituency office part-funded by Tattersalls. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/200526/hancock_matt.htm


----------



## Adam4868 (31 May 2020)

mjr said:


> No maybe about it. Matt Hancock constituency office part-funded by Tattersalls. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/200526/hancock_matt.htm


Who would of thought it.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/goo...r-matt-hancock-named-culture-secretary/315004


----------



## marinyork (31 May 2020)

200,000 capacity of tests reached

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...xceed-200000-per-day-target-government-claims

Obviously what has been keeping our government busy, managing to think of new targets and how to present it .


----------



## Rocky (31 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> 200,000 capacity of tests reached
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...xceed-200000-per-day-target-government-claims
> 
> Obviously what has been keeping our government busy, managing to think of new targets and how to present it .


The next target is to double the number of spurious health targets by the 5 June.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (31 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> 200,000 capacity of tests reached
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...xceed-200000-per-day-target-government-claims
> 
> Obviously what has been keeping our government busy, managing to think of new targets and how to present it .


The last More or Less gave the figures a thorough going over.


----------



## tom73 (31 May 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The next target is to double the number of spurious health targets by the 5 June.


With matching bonus prize PPE


----------



## tom73 (31 May 2020)

marinyork said:


> It is worrying. Policy wise I don't see what can be done. The public have given up on strict social distancing outside and it's mild social distancing outside. What goes on on inside environments I have no idea.
> 
> What equates to what R(t) I don't know, but it could take 3 months to get down to low levels apparently seen in other countries at this rate. Or a second wave sooner. You can't keep the public cooped up for another month in groups of 2. I think the sports stuff is well motivated. The opening up of other stuff could have been delayed 2 or 3 weeks.
> 
> ...



Very true policy wise I think they've all but given up trying. All we can hope for is the reporting of the clear tone and warning of experts will cut though enough to stop even more thinking it's over. But I really sadly doubt it. Local locks downs will not be easy and I don't think the government have the stomach to do it. The changers to exercise made sense both physically and mentally the rest is just totally restless given the lack of room for error. 
What is a growing issue and worry is the total bypassing of primary health in anything that directly effects local public health 1st with a testing set up independent of primary care system and now the change in shielding advice with no GP input.


----------



## Venod (31 May 2020)

There has been a few reports of people dying of various things and the doctor putting Covid 19 as the cause of death, when questioned the doctor has said instructions have been given that any deaths at this time have to be recorded as Covid related, the one I have just read, the deceased was never tested.
Some friends of ours had an elderly (96) parent in a care home, one person in the care home died who had covid 19 symptoms, resulting in regular testing of the other occupants.
Our friends mother had severe dementia and started to refuse food, she eventually died, she had always tested negative for covid19, but covid19 was put on the death certificate, when they questioned this they were told the last test was positive, they were convinced that dementia was the cause of death and the doctor confirmed this.
Whats going on here ?


----------



## randynewmanscat (31 May 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> We seem to have completely farking lost it as a country.
> 
> Went past a posh country pub today doing "takeaways".
> 
> ...


I remember the license sign, something about ON THE PREMISES or OFF THE PREMISES.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 May 2020)

.


Venod said:


> There has been a few reports of people dying of various things and the doctor putting Covid 19 as the cause of death, when questioned the doctor has said instructions have been given that any deaths at this time have to be recorded as Covid related, the one I have just read, the deceased was never tested.
> Some friends of ours had an elderly (96) parent in a care home, one person in the care home died who had covid 19 symptoms, resulting in regular testing of the other occupants.
> Our friends mother had severe dementia and started to refuse food, she eventually died, she had always tested negative for covid19, but covid19 was put on the death certificate, when they questioned this they were told the last test was positive, they were convinced that dementia was the cause of death and the doctor confirmed this.
> Whats going on here ?



Excess deaths above normal are also recorded. 

These are *more * than those ascribed to COVID, so it can be concluded than there is net under rather than over reporting.


----------



## tom73 (31 May 2020)

The guy is now so way out of his depth that it's gone passed horrific. 

View: https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1266995931439943683?s=21


----------



## Milzy (31 May 2020)

fossyant said:


> A friends daughter went to Blackpool today. They couldn't see the sand due to being rammed with folk. Not good. We popped to Crosby last weekend but it was cold and windy. Pretty empty. Wouldn't entertain it in warm weather.


I went to Filey the other day. Saw about 20 people in 8 hours. You can safely go to the beach if you pick a small coastal town or some wild coast. Much easier to social distance.


----------



## mjr (1 Jun 2020)

The mayor of London advises against the government, unsurprisingly

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/SadiqKhan/status/1266683904469147649?p=v


----------



## mjr (1 Jun 2020)

And the finest legal minds are working on the finer details of the latest lockdown law changes  
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/GeorgePeretzQC/status/1267162604377706496?p=v


----------



## tom73 (1 Jun 2020)

The government yesterday said guidelines on the changers to shielding advice would come out latter that day. 
The changers are effective from today they only got issued at 10.33pm a whole 87 minutes before they come into force. 
GP's and the wider primary health teams have been taken out the loop totally with no word on the matter and no guidance. Today they will be rammed with calls from some of the most vulnerable people the county has. They don't have a clue what to tell them as more things open up it's primary care that will be the key to controlling local outbreaks they can do without this crap on top. The guidelines are even set to expire on 31st June 2020. 

No-one said controlling this virus was easy and no government what ever party would have got everything right. But now it's looking like the government have even stopped trying.


----------



## Adam4868 (1 Jun 2020)

More and more people out here in Blackpool,good weather and it's looking like the lockdown is over.
Yet local NHS staff are reporting a r rate of 1.63 and as many covid patients as when at the peak.What the feck are we doing with the mixed messages of were doing ok ? Maybe regional lockdowns are necessary at the least.


----------



## Edwardoka (1 Jun 2020)

Something I just put together


----------



## DaveReading (1 Jun 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Yet local NHS staff are reporting a r rate of 1.63



I'd be interested to know how well local NHS staff are placed to calculate R.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Jun 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Yet local NHS staff are reporting a r rate of 1.63



I'd be interested in a link for that?


----------



## srw (1 Jun 2020)

DaveReading said:


> I'd be interested to know how well local NHS staff are placed to calculate R.


They're not, any more than anyone is able to forecast future cases by drawing a line on a graph in Paint. 

https://publichealthmatters.blog.go...rus-covid-19-real-time-tracking-of-the-virus/


----------



## mjr (1 Jun 2020)

srw said:


> They're not, any more than anyone is able to forecast future cases by drawing a line on a graph in Paint.
> 
> https://publichealthmatters.blog.go...rus-covid-19-real-time-tracking-of-the-virus/


What do you think of https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-kingdom/ ?


----------



## Rocky (1 Jun 2020)

I think the R number has become a bit of a distraction, like many of the other figures put out by government it is useless (also I'd include testing capacity, no of tests, stage 1-5 of the pandemic). Even the official numbers of people testing positive - the test has a positive predictive rate of 70% (30% who have the virus test negative) and of course large numbers with Covid have no test. These figures are essentially meaningless.

What really counts is the number of hospital admissions (and even this can misleading as people are dying at home) and the number of people dying of Covid. I honestly think we, as a country (England), aren't doing well on these.


----------



## Edwardoka (1 Jun 2020)

srw said:


> They're not, any more than anyone is able to forecast future cases by drawing a line on a graph in Paint.





Spoiler: Facetious post warning



I was going to say "How rude" in response to you savaging my carefully crafted rigorous research without even tagging me.
However, as with all things, data allows for far better analysis than an open question.






WRT the original graph, I have extended the axes and am willing to concede that my crude graph does not paint a likely picture, as this would involve the UK hitting 400,000 cases on June 16th.

I am sorry, in my haste to do a Science I have accidentally done a Trump predicting Hurricane paths.


Normal service may now resume


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> What do you think of https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-kingdom/ ?



Thanks, I'd not seen anything like that before. 

Looks reputable (LSHTM group) and to my eye very, very worrying - in all regions R is only just below one. 

I can't see how relaxing restrictions is compatible with this, unless something else replaces those restrictions. And the track and trace doesn't seem remotely ready to cope with the numbers of cases.


----------



## Adam4868 (1 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'd be interested in a link for that?


I was talking to our local councilor,I'm not that clever on graphs,numbers etc.But I'm pretty sure from a family member working in hospital in Blackpool it's bad enough.
Link to local rag,best I could do.
https://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/...s-rocket-and-resorts-r-number-hits-16-2870734


----------



## mjr (1 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think the R number has become a bit of a distraction, like many of the other figures put out by government it is useless (also I'd include testing capacity, no of tests, stage 1-5 of the pandemic).


I think it's quite useful and could be a far better thing to communicate to the public than the covid defcon piri piri number. After all that's been reported, I think enough people would react to a trustworthy rising R number by being more cautious to make a difference.



Brompton Bruce said:


> What really counts is the number of hospital admissions (and even this can misleading as people are dying at home) and the number of people dying of Covid. I honestly think we, as a country (England), aren't doing well on these.


Deaths count, but they tell you about the situation a few weeks ago - I agree we're not doing well, though. I think hospital admissions don't count because there's too many ways to fiddle it. What counts is current cases, but I've yet to see good estimates of that, with gov.uk publishing only confirmed cases, which is farked by the testing failures.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Jun 2020)

Iran now suffering 2nd wave. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...in-covid-19-cases-stokes-fears-of-second-wave

Of course, being British, and better than everyone else, this isn't relevant to us, which is why copying the precise same mistakes they have made doesn't matter. In exactly the same way we had nothing to learn from China or Italy in the first wave.


----------



## Rocky (1 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> I think it's quite useful and could be a far better thing to communicate to the public than the covid defcon piri piri number. After all that's been reported, I think enough people would react to a trustworthy rising R number by being more cautious to make a difference.
> 
> 
> Deaths count, but they tell you about the situation a few weeks ago - I agree we're not doing well, though. I think hospital admissions don't count because there's too many ways to fiddle it. What counts is current cases, but I've yet to see good estimates of that, with gov.uk publishing only confirmed cases, which is farked by the testing failures.


I think the issue is that R is only an estimate and a not particularly reliable estimate. And as we've seen, the public doesn't cope well with uncertainty - particularly where there's a debate between different scientists/doctors who each have their own value for R.

If we could get something that was reliable and trustworthy, then it would give the public a valuable steer as to success or otherwise of the public health measures (including lockdown). However PHE suggests we treat R with caution:

_It is important to note however that the R number is only one component that determines the rate of growth of the epidemic, and does not say anything about the rate of occurrence of new infections, the prevalence of infection across communities and the current burden faced by the healthcare system. It should, therefore, not be used as the sole indicator of the current threat posed by an epidemic._

But, I agree, in the absence of any other headline measure, it's probably the best we've got.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (1 Jun 2020)

Localised and anecdotal but the main hospital in Dundee has had no Covid cases in ICU for the last 3 days


----------



## srw (1 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> What really counts is the number of hospital admissions (and even this can misleading as people are dying at home) and the number of people dying of Covid


Ultimately the only thing that counts is all-cause excess mortality - the number of people dying this year over and above the number who we might expect to die. The number we might expect to die is pretty predictable by simple extrapolation from previous years (allowing for changes in the age structure of the country). The number actually dying from all causes is easy to count, and we're good at it. Subtract one from the other and you get the horrific picture the FT keeps reporting. It's freely available - bookmark it.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest





But that's a lagging indicator - hence the attempt to find something more realtime. All such things are estimates, and subject to uncertainty. They're not helped by the cack-handed way the UK government is going about testing, reporting and planning.


----------



## tom73 (1 Jun 2020)

Has the "stay alert" message been dropped ?
For days now it's never been talked about and the daily briefings no longer end with a reminder of what the "Official message" is. 
Old Matt today was throwing round the stats like a 10p mix up. The only message he now wants to get over is how rosey the garden is. 
Which is fine but it won't tell you what hidden in the soil which may well turn out to be nasty or the health of the bit's that aren't looking good.


----------



## tom73 (1 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I think the issue is that R is only an estimate and a not particularly reliable estimate. And as we've seen, the public doesn't cope well with uncertainty - particularly where there's a debate between different scientists/doctors who each have their own value for R.
> 
> If we could get something that was reliable and trustworthy, then it would give the public a valuable steer as to success or otherwise of the public health measures (including lockdown). However PHE suggests we treat R with caution:
> 
> ...


As with most stats the R number is meaningless without context. Outside health and science worlds it's pretty meaningless it's not meant for general mass use my a fixated government and press. But like you say it all we sadly have.

The made up 1-5 virus level thing may have been a good idea if it had been ready to go long before a pandemic came along. But we never had a plan in the 1st place to put it in. The public are use to hearing about terror threat level. So a virus threat level system is not a hard sell to public But it just got added later with a load of other rubbish bolted on like what can open ect. Kept simple with what it means in health terms and how to keep safe at each point. Used from day one case one and kept as a clear consent message. But it just appeared and was just added to the list of other unclear , mixed messages and instantly became meaningless.


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## midlife (1 Jun 2020)

Did Hancock sort his numbers out in the end? 400 odd discrepancy in the deaths for the last 24 hours between what he said and what the total is.


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## marinyork (1 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Did Hancock sort his numbers out in the end? 400 odd discrepancy in the deaths for the last 24 hours between what he said and what the total is.



He settled up with the bookies in the end.


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## mjr (1 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Has the "stay alert" message been dropped ?
> For days now it's never been talked about and the daily briefings no longer end with a reminder of what the "Official message" is.
> Old Matt today was throwing round the stats like a 10p mix up. The only message he now wants to get over is how rosey the garden is.
> Which is fine but it won't tell you what hidden in the soil which may well turn out to be nasty or the health of the bit's that aren't looking good.


Yes, it seems that today's message is "Look after your sleep"?!?

View: https://twitter.com/GOVUK/status/1267453731555205121


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## Slick (1 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Localised and anecdotal but the main hospital in Dundee has had no Covid cases in ICU for the last 3 days



1 death in the last 24 hours.

No reason to celebrate as Mrs Slick reminded me but there is hope.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Yes, it seems that today's message is "Look after your sleep"?!?
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/GOVUK/status/1267453731555205121




That’s not staying alert though is it. Maybe trying to stay alert is reason for lack of sleep?


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## Buck (2 Jun 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> That’s not staying alert though is it. Maybe trying to stay alert is reason for lack of sleep?



stay alert asleep?


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## tom73 (2 Jun 2020)

A few papers have pics like this how terrifying is this ? 
Temperature checks like this are pointless so many variables infra red thermometers are not a clinical device and not designed for this. 
Who ever came up with this clearly has no idea about health the over use of PPE reinforcers it. 
If they get these basics wrong what else have they got wrong?


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## Hugh Manatee (2 Jun 2020)

I have wondered about the infared temperature checks. It isn't checking the core temperature, is it? Just the surface. Would it vary much on a hot day? What if the young child has been running or skipped to school? What if they are late and have been towed along by a parent with a much longer stride? Surely they'll be hot?

Of course, I am assuming they walk to school like ours did. I wonder if the crushing air conditioning in a Range-Rooney would give a false negative to make up for all the false positives? 

Can someone help a non-scientist here? We tended to go for a traditional mercury in the mouth theometer once they got slightly older and before that an ear jobbie.


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## Joey Shabadoo (2 Jun 2020)

Hugh Manatee said:


> I have wondered about the infared temperature checks. It isn't checking the core temperature, is it? Just the surface. Would it vary much on a hot day? What if the young child has been running or skipped to school? What if they are late and have been towed along by a parent with a much longer stride? Surely they'll be hot?
> 
> Of course, I am assuming they walk to school like ours did. I wonder if the crushing air conditioning in a Range-Rooney would give a false negative to make up for all the false positives?
> 
> Can someone help a non-scientist here? We tended to go for a traditional mercury in the mouth theometer once they got slightly older and before that an ear jobbie.


Ear jobbies sound gross


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## deptfordmarmoset (2 Jun 2020)

Hancock gets a fail in his Statistics GCSE...


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (2 Jun 2020)

I've remembered why Matt Hancock makes me shudder every time I see him. He reminds me of Noseybonk from the 80s kid's TV show Jigsaw. It's a combination of the smile and the eyes I think.


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## deptfordmarmoset (2 Jun 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> I've remembered why Matt Hancock makes me shudder every time I see him. He reminds me of Noseybonk from the 80s kid's TV show Jigsaw. It's a combination of the smile and the eyes I think.
> 
> View attachment 526973


The pinocchio nose is a bit of a giveaway.


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## midlife (2 Jun 2020)

No Covid-19 deaths reported in my Trust for 15 days.

https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/...hs-reported-north-cumbrian-hospitals-15-days/

It's still out there though !


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## newfhouse (2 Jun 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Hancock gets a fail in his Statistics GCSE...
> View attachment 526960
> View attachment 526961


Hard to ignore, but I’m sure he will do his best.


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## Rusty Nails (2 Jun 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Hard to ignore, but I’m sure he will do his best.



A polite subtle letter that could really be summarised as "Minister, you are lying through your teeth".

Media questions should be interesting this evening, although Hancock will make the issue out as a positive.


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## tom73 (2 Jun 2020)

Hugh Manatee said:


> I have wondered about the infared temperature checks. It isn't checking the core temperature, is it? Just the surface. Would it vary much on a hot day? What if the young child has been running or skipped to school? What if they are late and have been towed along by a parent with a much longer stride? Surely they'll be hot?
> 
> Of course, I am assuming they walk to school like ours did. I wonder if the crushing air conditioning in a Range-Rooney would give a false negative to make up for all the false positives?
> 
> Can someone help a non-scientist here? We tended to go for a traditional mercury in the mouth theometer once they got slightly older and before that an ear jobbie.



No your right any and every thing can effect it. In isolation temperature like many other things is just part of a clinical picture. Unless you're trained to look , build and understand a rounded picture it's pointless. It's health care by a machine that go's ping a growing problem which is way many hospitals went back to manual BP's. Too many staff put the cuff on and pushed the button and never stopped to look at the patient. I've failed a few of my pre hospital care students for that over the years. 
The ear ones are not without problem either a tiny degree difference when using them can effect the reading.


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## Inertia (2 Jun 2020)




----------



## Hugh Manatee (2 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Ear jobbies sound gross



I was going to write "ear jobs" but thought that was even more open to interpretation!


----------



## newfhouse (2 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> At least we agree it's not a beacon of transparency!


No meaningful GitHub commits for nearly a month. Have they given up, or is the app closed source now? Amusingly, the NHSX website still says “Make things open; it makes things better.”


----------



## mjr (2 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Media questions should be interesting this evening, although Hancock will make the issue out as a positive.


Is who presents the briefing when listed anywhere? (It'd be nice to avoid Patel and Jenrick if nothing else...)


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (2 Jun 2020)

Hugh Manatee said:


> I was going to write "ear jobs" but thought that was even more open to interpretation!


----------



## Tanis8472 (2 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> No your right any and every thing can effect it. In isolation temperature like many other things is just part of a clinical picture. Unless you're trained to look , build and understand a rounded picture it's pointless. It's health care by a machine that go's ping a growing problem which is way many hospitals went back to manual BP's. Too many staff put the cuff on and pushed the button and never stopped to look at the patient. I've failed a few of my pre hospital care students for that over the years.
> The ear ones are not without problem either a tiny degree difference when using them can effect the reading.



I hate those automatic bp machines. Go far too tight.

Yeah, those infrared jobs are crap. Work use them to measure chilled and frozen stuff. External temps invariably are lots of degrees warmer than when box is opened. Pointless.


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## tom73 (2 Jun 2020)

So today briefing is again brought to us my matt. 
Think I can work out what will happen 
People are still dying but so what , the stats say what ever I want them to, some are getting testing some won't be but i've no idea what it all means. The press will ask pointless questions which the experts will reply to with fact's the press don't want to hear, they will push for the 2m rule to go as they are now really bored with all this. 
The expert will be trying hard to keep a straight face as matt tells us every thing is fine and will soon have covid done and dusted. 
Just in time for the pubs to open next week in the mean time have a covid test they are free this week with any purchase from a none essential shop now open.


----------



## midlife (2 Jun 2020)

From BBC reality check (below) government were not counting deaths if the positive result came from a commercial laboratory........sneaked that one in under the radar.

At yesterday’s briefing, UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced that there had been an increase in coronavirus deaths of 111 in the last 24 hours. The total number of people who have died after testing positive for Covid-19 stood at 39,045 – according to government figures.
But the previous day’s total was 38,489 – which was 556 lower (as Piers Morgan, among others, pointed out). So, where did the extra 445 deaths come from?
It turns out that until yesterday, the figure for the number of people who died after a positive test only included those whose test had been processed in an NHS or Public Health England laboratory.
On 1 June, the system was changed so that it also included tests processed by a commercial lab (since 24 May). That change meant a total of 445 extra people were counted as having died after testing positive, which was why the cumulative number rose by so much more than the daily figure.
Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland still do not count people who have died after positive test results run through commercial labs.


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## mjr (2 Jun 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Yeah, those infrared jobs are crap. Work use them to measure chilled and frozen stuff. External temps invariably are lots of degrees warmer than when box is opened. Pointless.


I don't think it's valid to conclude that IR thermometers are crap because your work is doing something obviously stupid. Humans aren't covered in cardboard (well, at least I'm not) and the latest medical ones seem to match an oral themometer pretty closely if used correctly (aimed at the superficial temporal artery from the stated range, basically), without the drawback of having to clean it before and after every use.

However, there is still the question of how reliable temperature is at indicating this infection, so best not to rely on it too much.


----------



## mjr (2 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> they will push for the 2m rule to go


It's only ever been guidance, hasn't it? Anyway, it's pretty much gone out there since Cumgate. People are just spacing out as much as they feel or are required to to get into shops.


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## tom73 (2 Jun 2020)

Another group that no-one talks about and many sadly just forget them. 
Deaths of people with learning disabilities in England have increased by 134% during the coronavirus pandemic.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/disability-52891401


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## tom73 (2 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> I don't think it's valid to conclude that IR thermometers are crap because your work is doing something obviously stupid. Humans aren't covered in cardboard (well, at least I'm not) and the latest medical ones seem to match an oral themometer pretty closely if used correctly (aimed at the superficial temporal artery from the stated range, basically), without the drawback of having to clean it before and after every use.
> 
> However, there is still the question of how reliable temperature is at indicating this infection, so best not to rely on it too much.


If it's the one i'm thinking about it's total rot and the claims have been reviewed and shown not to stack up.
You may as well just go by touch it's all pie in sky.


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## Tanis8472 (2 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> I don't think it's valid to conclude that IR thermometers are crap because your work is doing something obviously stupid. Humans aren't covered in cardboard (well, at least I'm not) and the latest medical ones seem to match an oral themometer pretty closely if used correctly (aimed at the superficial temporal artery from the stated range, basically), without the drawback of having to clean it before and after every use.
> 
> However, there is still the question of how reliable temperature is at indicating this infection, so best not to rely on it too much.


I was a trying to point out that without 'training' they're as much use as a chocolate condom.


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## PK99 (2 Jun 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> I hate those automatic bp machines. Go far too tight.
> 
> Yeah, those infrared jobs are crap. Work use them to measure chilled and frozen stuff. External temps invariably are lots of degrees warmer than when box is opened. Pointless.



Not necessarily, external temperature can be a proxy measure of internal temperature. Along the lines: a box surface temperature of x indicates an internal temperature of y.


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## midlife (2 Jun 2020)

School that we are involved in will not take temps as its not in the guidelines. Parents are told not to bring their kids in if they are unwell.

As of next Monday my temp is meant to be taken as I rock up to work.


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## lazybloke (2 Jun 2020)

Regardless of your thoughts on Brexit, I'm reminded that even Boris & chums concur that leaving the EU was very dodgy from an economic point of view. Our membership fee was repaid many times over by the benefits and opportunities of membership; all of that will be lost when our transitional deal ends in a few months time.

Will we apply to extend that transitional arrangement? It appears not, and perhaps that's a deliberate ploy by our government to 'force' a better trade deal, because "they need us more than we need them", but it's a huge gamble to risk alienation from our neighbours (friends), just at the time when we'll be trying to recover from the Corona depression. Where is the discussion and debate on these issues?


When the pandemic hit, our government consistently said we were 2-3 weeks behind countries (eg Italy). What a shame we didn't use those weeks constructively. Or if you look at the months of warning we had as events unfolded in Wuhan/China, what a shame we didn't use that time to better prepare. In fact, what a shame we didn't learn the lessons from those pandemic simulations that were carried out in recent years; you know, the similations that clearly identified the need for large stockpiles and production capacity of PPE.

No, instead of being prepared ,our government actively pursued policy of 'herd immunity' (aka "let half a million die"), and only changed course when it became clear the NHS would quickly reach a state of total collapse. Don't forget out government also ignored large parts of WHO guidance, and outright rejected opportunities to pool PPE purchasing power with other countries, whilst simultaneously failing to equip care homes, and actually discharging untested sick patients into their care. It's actually a disgusting and reckless failure; the resulting spike in infections & deaths is no surprise.

And what's happening now? A progressive relaxation of restrictions, despite repeated public misgivings from members of SAGE.

Something is clearly not right here; Government policy is at odds with scientific advice. Is Boris actually pursuing a resumption of the 'herd immunity' policy? It cetainly seems that way - as long as hospital bed occupancy is low enough not to overwhelm the NHS, Boris seems happy to throw the vulnerable section of society under the coronavirus bus.

So how many more will die at the hands of Boris?
39,000 is the official figure (deaths) to date in the UK, although the FT reported it as 62,000 if you consider 'excess deaths'. The recent antibody survey suggested only 7% of the population have had the virus, and the Imperial College study reckons the worst case scenario is 80% of the population contracting it. It's a very simple extrapolation to demonstrate we're not even one sixth of the way through this pandemic, unless something very dramatic happens like a vaccine, or an unexpected fizzling out.

If that doesn't happen, we might have as many as 700,000 deaths ; that's about 1% of the UK population dead. Hopefully those numbers are wrong.

But even going by current figures (absolute infections, absolute deaths, rates of each, etc), the UK rates as one of the worst-affected countries in the world. so can you imagine other countries welcoming UK tourists?
Or can you imagine international travellers wanting to come to the UK? The media reports about wanting "air corridors" seems like pie in the sky.

It seems more likely that we need to get used to our isolation for some time to come.
And if Boris wants to open the country up to the world, he needs to step up his game, even if that does mean making unpopular decisions.


Edited to add additional data.


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## tom73 (2 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> School that we are involved in will not take temps as its not in the guidelines. Parents are told not to bring their kids in if they are unwell.
> 
> As of next Monday my temp is meant to be taken as I rock up to work.


Really ? next thing will be having to smell some smelling salts before you can walk though the door.


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## midlife (2 Jun 2020)

Bugger, failed the fit test again for the 3 disposable masks available using some fancy particulate measuring system. Shape of my face is wrong apparently, think Jimmy "the schnozzle" Durante!!


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## mjr (2 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> If it's the one i'm thinking about it's total rot and the claims have been reviewed and shown not to stack up.
> You may as well just go by touch it's all pie in sky.


What review?
And if it's not that one?

IMO you've let perfection be the enemy of the good on at least two other public health measures on this thread, so I hesitate on this.


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## tom73 (2 Jun 2020)

So the government 1st did not like the R number so invent a new one, virus threat level then tried to fiddle it by moving the pointer to 3.
When all the Uk's CMO's say no they just forget the level completely and press on.
BEME are at higher risk of covid government has a report gone. Then removes the bits it don't like leaving all the bits that say they are risk. 
Which is what every worked out already. Just which part of science do they like ?


----------



## mjr (2 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Bugger, failed the fit test again for the 3 disposable masks available using some fancy particulate measuring system. Shape of my face is wrong apparently, think Jimmy "the schnozzle" Durante!!








(pic of Jimmy tipping his hat to you)


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## mjr (2 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just which part of science do they like ?


As @deptfordmarmoset pointed out, they've always been clear that they're furloughing the science.


----------



## stowie (3 Jun 2020)

The Telegraph is announcing an exclusive



Well, that is a relief. Does beg a few questions. What the holy fark has Boris been doing up until now? What depth of national / international crisis would he believe doesn't merit a hands-off approach? As well as the question "does he think this announcement will reassure us?".

There have been suggestions that the new style will involve him mainly being kept busy with a colouring in book whilst Cummings plows forward with his dystopian plan for the future.


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## roubaixtuesday (3 Jun 2020)

Johnson "very proud" of coronavirus response: "We have protected the NHS, we have driven down the death rate. We are now seeing far fewer hospital admissions"

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...es-himself-very-proud-of-coronavirus-response

Beggars belief. It's like Roy Hodgson saying he was "very proud" of our plucky defeat against Iceland in the Euros. "We showed a goal, we contained them to two, we were still on the pitch at the very end"

[shoot. I made up the Hodgson bit, but Google tells me I'm actually right, more or less..._ " I’m actually proud of the work my coaching staff and I have achieved over our time at the helm of England. The transition from the squad whose average age was 30 to now being the youngest in the tournament is both remarkable and exciting for the future of English football_". Terrifying. ]


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## roubaixtuesday (3 Jun 2020)

359 deaths today. 

It seems to be going very badly the last couple of weeks; not only are we worse than anywhere in Europe, we're not improving at the same rate most other European countries are. 

Why the fark are we relaxing restrictions with so many people still dying, and such little sign of improvement?


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## marinyork (3 Jun 2020)

Ferguson did some media pieces yesterday where he gave his opinion that a lack of tracing, PPE and protection in care homes with covid-19 patients was exporting it back out into the community and making it self sustaining. He seemed to be saying that could mean it'd carry on at this level to September without any changes happening.


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## tom73 (3 Jun 2020)

Dido Harding was clueless when asked questions over talk talk data breach.
Today she was clueless when asked about test and trace today by the select committee. The picture looks clear they know all about the sats and bit that are working ok. But have no idea how bad the bad bits are oh and it's our fault it's under used. As people are not getting tested
and nothing to do with balls up when people try.


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## deptfordmarmoset (3 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> 3
> 
> Why the fark are we relaxing restrictions with so many people still dying, and such little sign of improvement?


Because we're somewhere between level 3 and 4, which using the Cummings manoeuvre rule, means we can treat it as 3.

_Q: The government said the lockdown would not be relaxed until the alert level went down to 3. But it is still at 4. What has happened?_​​Whitty says relaxing the lockdown was linked to the government’s five tests.​​But the alert level is different, he says. It is independently set. It monitors the spread of the disease.​​(Whitty is wrong about this. The government’s coronavirus recovery plan specifically said: “The content and timing of the second stage of adjustments will depend on the most up-to-date assessment of the risk posed by the virus. The five tests set out in the first chapter must justify changes, and they must be warranted by the current alert level.” And the government produced a chart saying gradual relaxation of the lockdown would only start when the alert level went down to 3. See here.)​


----------



## stowie (3 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Johnson "very proud" of coronavirus response: "We have protected the NHS, we have driven down the death rate. We are now seeing far fewer hospital admissions"
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/politic...es-himself-very-proud-of-coronavirus-response
> 
> ...



Until I read your last paragraph my finger was poised on the reply button to say that the analogy had _some _flaws! 

I think at the time that Hodgson got quite a lot of stick for his comments. He did carry on...



> “I would have loved to stay on for another two years. However, I am pragmatic and I know we are in the results business. My contract was always up after the Euros, so now is the time for someone else to oversee the progress of this young, hungry and extremely talented group of players.* They have been fantastic and have done everything that has been asked of them. When I arrived I was told players didn’t turn up to play for their country or that they pulled out at the last minute*. *I have not seen any of that*. These players love to play for their country and their commitment has been unquestioned



I particularly loved the bit underlined in bold. I wondered whether Hodgson had asked them to _actually _lose to Iceland in that case.

Still it could be worse. I visited Brazil shortly after their huge loss to Germany in the World Cup. One of the newspapers just a photo of the Brazilian national team, the scoreboard and a huge headline roughly translating to "The wound that will last a thousand years". I made a note that the country wasn't taking the defeat _particularly _well.


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## tom73 (3 Jun 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Because we're somewhere between level 3 and 4, which using the Cummings manoeuvre rule, means we can treat it as 3.
> 
> _Q: The government said the lockdown would not be relaxed until the alert level went down to 3. But it is still at 4. What has happened?_​​Whitty says relaxing the lockdown was linked to the government’s five tests.​​But the alert level is different, he says. It is independently set. It monitors the spread of the disease.​​(Whitty is wrong about this. The government’s coronavirus recovery plan specifically said: “The content and timing of the second stage of adjustments will depend on the most up-to-date assessment of the risk posed by the virus. The five tests set out in the first chapter must justify changes, and they must be warranted by the current alert level.” And the government produced a chart saying gradual relaxation of the lockdown would only start when the alert level went down to 3. See here.)​


Maybe Whitty is telling us how it was suppose to work so we know it's all gone tits up. Which other than turning round to PM on camera and say it's total balls up. Is only way he can still stay professional given the fact that he and the rest of UK CMO's told the government no you can't move it to 3. But they just walked all over them he is clear he's not happy and it's showing.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (3 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Maybe Whitty is telling us how it was suppose to work so we know it's all gone tits up. Which other than turning round to PM on camera and say it's total balls up. Is only way he can still stay professional given the fact that he and the rest of UK CMO's told the government no you can't move it to 3. But they just walked all over them he is clear he's not happy and it's showing.


Whichever, Whitty is compromised and will end up taking the can. Because, let's face it, the government won't.


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## roubaixtuesday (3 Jun 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Whitty is compromised and will end up taking the can.



From what Whitty, and even more so Vallance said at the start of this they should be taking a slice of the blame. What made them so convinced they knew better than the WHO and the rest of the world?

Why were they saying we were a month behind Italy when it was blindingly obvious (even to a fule like me) it was no more than a fortnight at most?

Why on earth were they advising international football games with teams from major outbreak centres were low risk?


----------



## mjr (3 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Why the fark are we relaxing restrictions with so many people still dying, and such little sign of improvement?



View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll3uipTO-4A


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll3uipTO-4A




Maybe, but even that doesn't make any _rational_ sense. 

The countries whose economies are best placed now are those who have the lowest deaths and cases. UK policy is driving the opposite. Thr policy seems both economically illiterate _and_ destructive of health and lives.


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## tom73 (3 Jun 2020)

Well the return of the commons is going just fine the Business Secretary has gone down with possible covid. 
That will be interesting test and trace conversion. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52910303


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## mjr (3 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Well the return of the commons is going just fine the Business Secretary has gone down with possible covid.
> That will be interesting test and trace conversion.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52910303


BBC1 News at 10 reports the minister sat next to him was sat 2m away so won't isolate


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## mjr (3 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Maybe, but even that doesn't make any _rational_ sense.
> 
> The countries whose economies are best placed now are those who have the lowest deaths and cases. UK policy is driving the opposite. Thr policy seems both economically illiterate _and_ destructive of health and lives.


Pile it high, sell it now. What leaders care if some die? The UK can always get millions more people from [checks list] Hong Kong.


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## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> BBC1 News at 10 reports the minister sat next to him was sat 2m away so won't isolate



Don't worry, this morning Boris has been on the offensive that the 2 metre rule might need to go. 

I do find it a bit mad that the government only published the evidence of why 2 metres was needed recently, which would have been useful earlier, and now Boris thinks it has to go it potentially also works the other way against what he's trying to achieve.


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## tom73 (4 Jun 2020)

The thing about the 2m rule is it reinforcers the idea things are not normal. 
So many are now just blindly not caring about anything it's becoming right Russian roulette when do go out. 
The messages are so mix even now drop it and you've nothing left and nothing will cut though no matter how bad things get.


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## oldwheels (4 Jun 2020)

One of the frightening things I had not thought much about is the speed with which this infection can spread. Talking to my brother in Shetland last night and he told me how it had got there. 
An architect he employs had been to southern Italy which at that time was reckoned to be fairly safe. Himself and his wife flew back to Shetland via Edinburgh. The following day he went to his office and tho' he had no symptoms at that time infected his whole staff and thereby their families. In all about 40 people more or less overnight and that is only one person. Fortunately it seems to have been caught in time but the potential for massive spread very quickly is there.


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## tom73 (4 Jun 2020)

This is the problem it won't take much to bring the numbers back up. Even now too many are clueless to the risks and don't get the fact that it only take one or two and off we go again.


----------



## mjr (4 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Don't worry, this morning Boris has been on the offensive that the 2 metre rule might need to go.


So who do we think has been too close to minister Sharma that they don't want to lose for 2 weeks?

Is policy now being made on the basis of whatever excuses the executive, or does it just look like it?

50'000+ in wave one!


----------



## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> So who do we think has been too close to minister Sharma that they don't want to lose for 2 weeks?
> 
> Is policy now being made on the basis of whatever excuses the executive, or does it just look like it?
> 
> 50'000+ in wave one!



Boris is suggesting it as under pressure according to papers for weeks from business sectors and Conservative backbenchers. But it does make it look like that. In any contact tracing which was clarified, many will say I was never less than 2 metres.

In terms of Westminster I think it is right it has returned, but not implementing a hybrid model as would be more like up and down the land say on voting or other matters is the height of silliness.


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## All uphill (4 Jun 2020)

The part of yesterday's briefing I found most significant was Johnson referring to the risk of a second wave being that hospital would be overwhelmed.

Not that thousands more would die.
Not that thousands more would be bereaved.

My sense is that, all along, the nearest thing to a government strategy has been to build up herd immunity as fast as possible within the capacity of the NHS, regardless of the number of premature deaths.


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## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

oldwheels said:


> One of the frightening things I had not thought much about is the speed with which this infection can spread. Talking to my brother in Shetland last night and he told me how it had got there.
> An architect he employs had been to southern Italy which at that time was reckoned to be fairly safe. Himself and his wife flew back to Shetland via Edinburgh. The following day he went to his office and tho' he had no symptoms at that time infected his whole staff and thereby their families. In all about 40 people more or less overnight and that is only one person. Fortunately it seems to have been caught in time but the potential for massive spread very quickly is there.



For the purposes of explanation and balance this was in a BBC story also the last few days https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-52823510 everyone basically knows the architect.

It should be pointed out that you have omitted the part that many think the architect may have picked it up in Edinburgh, including the architect themselves. It's much easier for people to believe that the virus came from somewhere else I guess.

I have read your posts before. The virus is everywhere. It's been many places in low numbers for a long time. It's a scary thing, but means measures are needed and one must be much more wary about locals spreading it and less focus on tourism. More focus on carehomes in remote locations too.

I do have to disagree with the views of Islanders and the BBC and not so much yourself as you're simply repeating what others say. The architect traveled to Italy on 28th February. The quaint idea that no one thought the virus was in the south is completely fictional. I technically went to the South (some would say centre) much earlier in February than the architect. Certainly south of the 'line'. Three weeks before the architect arrived every single person entering the airport in Italy had their temperature checked. The virus was all over Italian news and everywhere you went. Rather like yourself in your bit of Scotland, Italians in the south were somewhat worried about tourists bringing the virus south. The quarantine of limited northern areas had started on 22nd February as well as substantial measures in other northern regions and 28th feb was in the immediate run up to northern quarantine.

The reasons not said in the article about why the sort of state of affairs came about was that the south in general has virtually no testing capacity for coronavirus. In February before the architect went even the north had quite a paltry testing regime. The day before the architect arrived Italy had done 12,000 coronavirus tests in total, despite sadly knowing shortly after that it was raging wildly out of control. In the UK there had been 8000 tests by the same day and this was when Italy slowly started to ramp up, despite being 'four to five weeks' ahead of the UK in terms of virus spread.

The foreign office advice didn't help either. The line north of Pisa one. This said to me at the time that the government knew about stuff I'd seen on Italian media that it was widespread throughout the whole of the north. The follow on from that is that it would be circulating in smaller numbers below there. It may have led to people like the architect not thinking critically or being misinformed. They very clearly knew there was a level of risk, if some places not that far away you're instructed by the foreign office to self isolate for 14 days if you show symptoms (which he didn't).

It's not being critical of the architect, the italian testing regime and test and trace failed (spectacularly if you believe the patient uno hypothesis), as did government communicated. But I call into question the rosy version of events the article paints as happening. Like the architect it also doesn't 'matter' in the sense that as they say themselves they may not have been the first to bring it to shetland (and that's the truly scary part). It's just indicative of it happening again and again.


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## oldwheels (4 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> For the purposes of explanation and balance this was in a BBC story also the last few days https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-52823510 everyone basically knows the architect.
> 
> It should be pointed out that you have omitted the part that many think the architect may have picked it up in Edinburgh, including the architect themselves. It's much easier for people to believe that the virus came from somewhere else I guess.
> 
> ...


I made no mention of the theory that he picked the virus up in Edinburgh because it is not known precisely where he picked it up. My main point really was the potential speed with which this can transmit before detection.
Fear of infection is not confined to islands and many mainland areas have been afraid to welcome visitors. 
It is easy enough to get off my island but difficult to get back unless you have a cast iron reason. It appears Shetland has put these restrictions in both directions and barriers are in place to get away as well as return.


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## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

oldwheels said:


> I made no mention of the theory that he picked the virus up in Edinburgh because it is not known precisely where he picked it up. My main point really was the potential speed with which this can transmit before detection.
> Fear of infection is not confined to islands and many mainland areas have been afraid to welcome visitors.
> It is easy enough to get off my island but difficult to get back unless you have a cast iron reason. It appears Shetland has put these restrictions in both directions and barriers are in place to get away as well as return.



It's not known where people got the infections. However due to studies in Iceland and elsewhere that have tracked things they have found that often there were several strands bringing the infection into remote areas (Germany and the UK in their case). This is why it's speculated for Shetland and other areas. It is in a sense great that the architect was picked up and other cases eventually caught though as it stopped it getting far more out of control than it would have been. I doubt he was the only one to bring it to Shetland.

The virus does spread very fast. It was also more widespread than we thought at the time - mostly due to a lack of testing and tracing. 

I'm fully aware mainland areas have been afraid to welcome visitors. I live near a national park and the noises/denial coming out of some locals there doesn't really help anything with coronavirus. Tourists do need to behave responsibly and stop doing silly things, but the locals are absolute blighters for doing things too. It's very easy for 'locals' to preach things to outsiders and then use it as an excuse to do whatever they want. In England the ONS published a geographic map of deaths drilling down in most areas to a very fine level of detail. Looking at the map is sobering as it includes so many areas that have people saying 'the virus isn't in my area' and unfortunately yep, someone just down the road you don't know has already died of it .

Unfortunately raising the drawbridge probably isn't that helpful, the virus is already circulating fairly widely on your island. I just hope it doesn't kill anyone else. I suspect if all of the people on your island thought as you do and behaved accordingly, it'd be less widespread.

Fortunately, speaking 3 months later, tests are vastly much more widely available, even if it is a bit of a pig's ear.


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## tom73 (4 Jun 2020)

Turn's out the testing booking service is not 24h wonder what other part of the testing are not 24h ?


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## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> The thing about the 2m rule is it reinforcers the idea things are not normal.
> So many are now just blindly not caring about anything it's becoming right Russian roulette when do go out.
> The messages are so mix even now drop it and you've nothing left and nothing will cut though no matter how bad things get.



The difficulty in terms of media coverage and how this filters back to lobby groups or MPs is that it's well known the WHO recommend 1 metre along with various countries. Other countries that have a relatively successful record with the virus use 1.5 metres and the papers the government cite extensively discuss 1.5 metres. This then comes back as pressure to the politicians. 

I agree with your sentiment though, that outdoors no one is sticking to it any more anyway (indoors I have no idea). If it's made 1 metres then no one will likely stick to it. It's a difficult balance on the economy as I think there may be some merit in 1.5 metres but how will that make people behave? It'd be interesting what SAGE and others think.

I would like the government to give out a clearer message on the time aspect of exposure which the government believe is proportional. Comparing risk levels. Similarly some sort of models with bubbles. It's not one that anyone wants to have to do some having given up so much, but it may be time for the government to issue guidance to what care workers in homes do outside of work  as long as getting PPE to care homes. The government need to talk in models what they are aiming for, are they aiming for us to see 50% fewer people, 75% and for 50% less time, 75% less time?


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## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

Inertia said:


> What was his reasoning? Following the science?



It's something to various degrees he's been on about the week before at another appearance. It was stated as a wish and part of wanting to get back to normal, although I think there was an 'eventually' in there that although I heard it others might not have. 

Politically the government doesn't have a handle on what's opening up in June yet and has to plan for phase 3 from July onwards. 

Most headlines these days just seem to be about battles with over opening of schools and newspaper stoking over expectations of summer holidays, both of which are issues to be discussed but are ultimately a gigantic distraction for the country when taking the size of this crisis and need the narrative and logistics sorted quickly.


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## Joey Shabadoo (4 Jun 2020)

I'm annoyed at Sturgeon today. 



> Ms Sturgeon also said she would "strongly encourage people" to wear face coverings in shops, but was still considering whether to make it mandatory.
> She added: "I said when I announced the policy some weeks back that we would keep this under review.
> "We haven't reached a final position on this but I think it is fair to say it is something that we are considering."



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52921078

What is absolutely clear is no one gives a monkey about her "strong encouragement" as it's being routinely ignored. Worse, people that do wear them are saying they're being sniggered at in shops. I wonder if she actually has the power to make wearing a mask compulsory or is she talking out her arse?


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## tom73 (4 Jun 2020)

I agree i've not seen social science finding on how other counties have done on over all compliance. Other counties went much more heavier on lockdown then us. We either have a distance that we stick with or totally publicly remove it. To move it now just makes everything else look pointless. It's going to be difficult to balance risk with opening up the economy. So much has been spent already trying to keep things going. We may as well now borrow a bit more and move to more clever options that allow the economy to rebalance, invest in training and new technology all of which is long over due. No-one has a clue what the economy will look like post covid so may as well get in 1st. One thing is clear from past pandemics if health is left weak the economy takes much longer to come back. 
Health look's to be as each day passers going off the radar of government , press and public. 

PPE is long forgotten old news i'm not convinced it's fixed yet. The government messages are just getting more mixed by the day even yesterday Borris said none essential travel should be avoided. But yet we've been told it's fine to travel as much as you want for a day out. We've all seen packed out beeches and the mess many are making in the national parks inc moorland fires. Then we have the shield don't shield if in doubt as your GP who don't have a clue what to say due to being sidelined, go on holiday but at the same time you need to stay at home for 2 weeks but at the some time the government still talk of air bridges so may change. A test track and trace the may well be set up but many local public health officers say it's not running. It's just a big mess if Tesco had the same mixed messages it would have gone bust years ago. The only thing that look's like going bust any time soon is public health


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## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> What is absolutely clear is no one gives a monkey about her "strong encouragement" as it's being routinely ignored. Worse, people that do wear them are saying they're being sniggered at in shops. I wonder if she actually has the power to make wearing a mask compulsory or is she talking out her arse?



I don't think anyone in the UK does have the power/persuasion. Locally specific services, more likely health may get people wearing them temporarily. Indoors everywhere in shops, nah, not a chance. As the government recommend it I wear a covering I wear an FFP1 (above a face covering, but that's the mask/covering that I have) in shops. I don't get laughed at, it's not that bad, but only about 5% of people in shops are wearing face coverings I estimate.

Even if there was enforcement, theoretically it'd be best targeted at particular types of establishment/problems encountered. Or indoors workplace enforcement.


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## mjr (4 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm annoyed at Sturgeon today. [...] I wonder if she actually has the power to make wearing a mask compulsory or is she talking out her arse?


I think she does, thanks to http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2020/7/schedule/19


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## mjr (4 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> I don't think anyone in the UK does have the power/persuasion. [...] I don't get laughed at, it's not that bad, but only about 5% of people in shops are wearing face coverings I estimate.


Persuasion is different. Generally, Johnson's UK government seems unwilling to use even a fraction of the powers it has been given to confront this pandemic, which starkly contrasts to the extreme measures used for certain other things. I guess it's just not a matter of life or death to ministers(!) I don't know how the Scottish approach differs.

I agree with the above estimate from what I've seen. Peak mask use was just before Cumgate and it's now fallen drastically again. I'm also seeing an increase this week in people getting argumentative against one-person-per-basket restrictions and security staff now letting families go in, at the expense of longer queues outside because of the fixed capacity limits.


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## deptfordmarmoset (4 Jun 2020)

There's a cycling graph in the transport figures now. I bet that's down today. Will Shapps mention his bike voucher scheme again? It seemed to attract zero interest at the time he first mentioned it - it did look like an ineffective diversionary tactic at the time.

Edit: he did, along with the bike to work scheme.


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## tom73 (4 Jun 2020)

Face coverings to become mandatory from 15 June on all public transport.
More positive talk about cycling


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## Rocky (4 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Face coverings to become mandatory from 15 June on all public transport.
> More positive talk about cycling


It appears that the Prof hasn’t just been shouting at the clouds......someone must have been listening


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## tom73 (4 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It appears that the Prof hasn’t just been shouting at the clouds......someone must have been listening


Looking like it yes 
I just hope they get the messaging right and staff are clear on who don't have to wear one due medical grounds or it will become yet another flash point. I can see some poor old pensioner left at the bus stop in the rain with no other bus coming anytime soon. 
How you prove it I don't know and let's also hope we don't get a rush of everyone buying ones with the oneway valve as that's not going to do anybody any good.


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## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Persuasion is different. Generally, Johnson's UK government seems unwilling to use even a fraction of the powers it has been given to confront this pandemic, which starkly contrasts to the extreme measures used for certain other things. I guess it's just not a matter of life or death to ministers(!) I don't know how the Scottish approach differs.
> 
> I agree with the above estimate from what I've seen. Peak mask use was just before Cumgate and it's now fallen drastically again. I'm also seeing an increase this week in people getting argumentative against one-person-per-basket restrictions and security staff now letting families go in, at the expense of longer queues outside because of the fixed capacity limits.



I say I don't think they (meaning Boris, Matt, Priti) can persuade based on the last 3-4 months. Not that it's impossible for anyone. Other politicians after this time would have an uphill battle.

The evolution of the messages, it seemed to be the medics in northern ireland and the media that preceded the government's stay at home message. I think lockdown fatigue exists. I think messages need to change.

Families going in, here that was for about a week that was enforced. 

I see it's Grant Shapps today for the announcement about masks as tom73 said. It does seem to be Shapps that says the harder announcements compare to previous pronouncements on public transport and 10% capacity.


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## Mr Whyte (4 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Face coverings to become mandatory from 15 June on all public transport.
> More positive talk about cycling




Great on the cycling, and good for masks on transport if I ever get a bus again I`m glad I don`t have to wear a mask.


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## Rocky (4 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Looking like it yes
> I just hope they get the messaging right and staff are clear on who don't have to wear one due medical grounds or it will become yet another flash point. I can see some poor old pensioner left at the bus stop in the rain with no other bus coming anytime soon.
> How you prove it I don't know and let's also hope we don't get a rush of everyone buying ones with the oneway valve as that's not going to do anybody any good.


The evidence is starting to appear that supports mask use. I do feel sorry for the poor old pensioner in your scenario but surely they’d have a hanky which they could cover their nose and mouth with?


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## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The evidence is starting to appear that supports mask use. I do feel sorry for the poor old pensioner in your scenario but surely they’d have a hanky which they could cover their nose and mouth with?



Not talked about much, but in Italy some regions/provinces that eventually actually mandated them gave them out to every household.

I'm not suggesting that's worth happening here or will happen but it's an interesting comparison. Despite that though they were very widely worn way, way before that. 

There's a rumour round here that buses are once an hour and there's no timetable. This is another one for working on getting the message out.


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## tom73 (4 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The evidence is starting to appear that supports mask use. I do feel sorry for the poor old pensioner in your scenario but surely they’d have a hanky which they could cover their nose and mouth with?


I agree totally my scenario was more about grumpy drivers having even more power to be a total arse about. 
The nose thing is interesting I've lost count with how many wear sadly mostly surgical masks below the nose. 
Only this morning I was handed some meds at the pharmacy with her wearing one like that.


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## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The evidence is starting to appear that supports mask use. I do feel sorry for the poor old pensioner in your scenario but surely they’d have a hanky which they could cover their nose and mouth with?



P.S. I do wonder as Grant Shapps said he was aiming for 10% of public transport use a good while ago which is not realistic in the real world whether face coverings is a real world compromise. 

Face coverings I think are useful, just I had doubts as those with links to asian countries voicing that it was a definitive solution and some scepticism around Italy where they were very widely worn (but eye coverings were seen as nonsense). Also worries about supplies going. 

Still don't know how you get around the use indoors where the government recommends them and no one is using them. The latter policy may help the former.


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## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> I agree totally my scenario was more about grumpy drivers having even more power to be a total arse about.
> The nose thing is interesting I've lost count with how many wear sadly mostly surgical masks below the nose.
> Only this morning I was handed some meds at the pharmacy with her wearing one like that.



My local pharmacy no one wears anything. Contacts in places I used to work it seems that they aren't the only ones. I do think it's a bit mad, but there you go.


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## Rusty Nails (4 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The evidence is starting to appear that supports mask use. I do feel sorry for the poor old pensioner in your scenario but surely they’d have a hanky which they could cover their nose and mouth with?



My son is partially-sighted, and has some immunity issues, so has no option other than the bus for a 30/40 minute journey each way to work. At the moment he is working from his flat but there will soon come a time that he will have to make that journey again, at peak hours.

I hope that the mandatory wearing of face coverings comes in in Wales as well. Crowded buses are a hotbed for transferring viruses at the best of times, and these are nowhere near the best of times. I have told him that I would prefer to act as a taxi driver each morning/evening than see him use the bus until things are safer, but he doesn't want to 'make a fuss'.


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## tom73 (4 Jun 2020)

No app now till September or October not to worry though serco are determined to fix it. The same serco who don't even use serco health in serco prisons.
https://www.theguardian.com/society...-september-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


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## mjr (4 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> My local pharmacy no one wears anything.


 Well, I guess that's one way to avoid bringing the virus in on their clothes!


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## stowie (4 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> My local pharmacy no one wears anything. Contacts in places I used to work it seems that they aren't the only ones. I do think it's a bit mad, but there you go.



My local pharmacy have somehow managed to find some WWII gas masks which the staff wear. They also have erected a huge barrier to their shop with a hole in it to receive goods / make payment. The whole ensemble wouldn't look out of place on a Mad Max set.

The gas mask muffles their speech so they communicate using elaborate sign language.

What it lacks in efficiency it makes up for in entertainment.


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## mjr (4 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Not talked about much, but in Italy some regions/provinces that eventually actually mandated them gave them out to every household.
> 
> I'm not suggesting that's worth happening here or will happen but it's an interesting comparison. Despite that though they were very widely worn way, way before that.
> 
> There's a rumour round here that buses are once an hour and there's no timetable. This is another one for working on getting the message out.


Belgium also distributed masks to residents.

Buses here are running extended Saturday times, I think, with extra earlies. Stickers on every stop give exact info.


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## tom73 (4 Jun 2020)

stowie said:


> My local pharmacy have somehow managed to find some WWII gas masks which the staff wear. They also have erected a huge barrier to their shop with a hole in it to receive goods / make payment. The whole ensemble wouldn't look out of place on a Mad Max set.
> 
> The gas mask muffles their speech so they communicate using elaborate sign language.
> 
> What it lacks in efficiency it makes up for in entertainment.


Hope they have been made safe the fillers contain asbestos


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## All uphill (4 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> No app now till September or October not to worry though serco are determined to fix it. The same serco who don't even use serco health in serco prisons.
> https://www.theguardian.com/society...-september-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


But when it comes its sure to be "world beating" TM


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## deptfordmarmoset (4 Jun 2020)

Crace is on form tonight. https://www.theguardian.com/politic...world-beater-in-stupidity-transport-face-mask


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## gavroche (4 Jun 2020)

I heard on the French radio this afternoon that there are no reports of new cases of Corona virus in France at the moment. Correct me if I am wrong but they don't seem to mention Italy, Spain or France on the news anymore overhere. I wonder what is happening in Italy and Spain now?
I know the UK has more deaths caused by it than all the Europeen countries combined. Very poor and sad record indeed.


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## stowie (4 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Hope they have been made safe the fillers contain asbestos


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## marinyork (4 Jun 2020)

stowie said:


> My local pharmacy have somehow managed to find some WWII gas masks which the staff wear. They also have erected a huge barrier to their shop with a hole in it to receive goods / make payment. The whole ensemble wouldn't look out of place on a Mad Max set.
> 
> The gas mask muffles their speech so they communicate using elaborate sign language.
> 
> What it lacks in efficiency it makes up for in entertainment.



Guess it'll be your pharmacy that survives and passes these on these working practices to other pharmacies in future.


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## deptfordmarmoset (4 Jun 2020)

gavroche said:


> I heard on the French radio this afternoon that there are no reports of new cases of Corona virus in France at the moment. Correct me if I am wrong but they don't seem to mention Italy, Spain or France on the news anymore overhere. I wonder what is happening in Italy and Spain now?
> I know the UK has more deaths caused by it than all the Europeen countries combined. Very poor and sad record indeed.


Yes, the UK has disappeared up its own solipsistic posterior. Meanwhile, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ updates the figures very shortly after they're released, if you're looking for an overview of the figures.


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## mjr (4 Jun 2020)

gavroche said:


> I heard on the French radio this afternoon that there are no reports of new cases of Corona virus in France at the moment. Correct me if I am wrong but they don't seem to mention Italy, Spain or France on the news anymore overhere. I wonder what is happening in Italy and Spain now?


Italy is slowly reopening. Do you have TV? It's been on France 24 French service and C-News quite a bit. I've not checked LCI recently.

If not, the RTS 8am radio news podcast (generally uploaded by 9) covers Italy quite a lot too. Le Journal de 8h - La 1ere: https://www.rts.ch/la-1ere/programmes/le-journal-de-8h/podcast/?flux=rss


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## randynewmanscat (5 Jun 2020)

All uphill said:


> But when it comes its sure to be "world beating" TM


Could be worse, if you are unfortunate enough to be a US national it would be "beautiful".


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## randynewmanscat (5 Jun 2020)

gavroche said:


> I heard on the French radio this afternoon that there are no reports of new cases of Corona virus in France at the moment. Correct me if I am wrong but they don't seem to mention Italy, Spain or France on the news anymore overhere. I wonder what is happening in Italy and Spain now?
> I know the UK has more deaths caused by it than all the Europeen countries combined. Very poor and sad record indeed.


I had a beer or five in my local on Thursday. The place is tiny so when one person moves three others have to perform a jig to get out of the way, farcical stuff. 
Wait until the UK pubs open, you'll all have a tale to tell if you venture out for a beer.


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## deptfordmarmoset (5 Jun 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I had a beer or five in my local on Thursday. The place is tiny so when one person moves three others have to perform a jig to get out of the way, farcical stuff.
> Wait until the UK pubs open, you'll all have a tale to tell if you venture out for a beer.


Going out for a beer isn't looking likely any time soon for us. Though I'll be out collecting a case of beer this afternoon - it's been delivery only for a good while but collection is now an option. Last time I had a drink in a hostelry was 8 March.


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## marinyork (5 Jun 2020)

gavroche said:


> I heard on the French radio this afternoon that there are no reports of new cases of Corona virus in France at the moment. Correct me if I am wrong but they don't seem to mention Italy, Spain or France on the news anymore overhere. I wonder what is happening in Italy and Spain now?
> I know the UK has more deaths caused by it than all the Europeen countries combined. Very poor and sad record indeed.



Italy has around 200 to 300 new cases a day with large fluctuations day to day. Italy has around 70-100 (nearly all recorded) hospital deaths per day again with large fluctuations.

Aspects of Italian work and life have been slowly reopening for some time.


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## tom73 (5 Jun 2020)

Now is not the time to threaten to go on strike. 
Positive peer pressure is better than a big stick they won't be staffing trains or putting staff out of work. 
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...-strike-over-shappss-face-covering-volunteers


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## johnblack (5 Jun 2020)

How a change in Spanish stats calculation changed their Covid deaths


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## Beebo (5 Jun 2020)

johnblack said:


> How a change in Spanish stats calculation changed their Covid deaths
> View attachment 527647


It does make you wonder how reliable the data in other countries is.

The excess death rate is probably the safest measure for comparison purposes.


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## johnblack (5 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> It does make you wonder how reliable the data in other countries is.
> 
> The excess death rate is probably the safest measure for comparison purposes.


I think there is very little point in trying to compare, but I can safely say I trust our figures more than Spains. Excess death is important, although initially it is so much higher, it will be interesting to see where we are in a years time, especially as so many deaths are of those who were nearing the end of their lives. Will we see negative figures in months to come? Also more importantly will be number of years lost, this will be hit by the amount of treatable patients that were unable to recieve treatment through the lockdown for cancers and such. Will the number of years lost from Covid deaths be less than those lost by patients who were denied or decided not to receive treatment due to the lock down.

Thoroughly depressing.


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## marinyork (5 Jun 2020)

Some good news at last, number of new daily infections is estimated to have fallen from 8000 a day in recent weeks, to 5600 a day presently.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52933804


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## marinyork (5 Jun 2020)

P.S. other bad news from the same report is that different interpretations seem to say this is the largest scale study to clock the asymptomatic patients percentage being much higher than generally agreed from smaller studies. This is 71% within the original bounds of 20-80% stated for months with most commentators and researchers generally believing it's 40 to 50%. Also the north west is a concern and R(t) has risen slightly to between 0.7 and 1.0.


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## tom73 (5 Jun 2020)

On testing anyone seen sats on the difference in the fail rate of tests that are self administered compared with ones carry out by HCP's? 
Also anyone know the number of home test kits that never get sent back? 
We know the number of tests carried out figure is a fiddle but do they also inc the ones that never come back as well?


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## PK99 (5 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> It does make you wonder how reliable the data in other countries is.
> 
> *The excess death rate is probably the safest measure for comparison purposes.*



And we will only know that after the whole pandemic is over.


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## tom73 (5 Jun 2020)

Hancock's turn to issue mask advice.
Everyone member of the public going into hospital will have to wear face covering.
All staff clinical or not will have to wear class 1 or 2 masks.
He then went on to make a joke 
Health staff are asked to self isolate he will support them even if it means the whole department.


----------



## marinyork (5 Jun 2020)

Hospital staff must wear surgical masks. Visitors and outpatients to wear coverings.

You could announce these new groups wearing masks once a day. Who's next? Politicians? Ballerinas? Journalists? Cyclists? Pupils?

Could keep it going for a few weeks as media management.


----------



## Rocky (5 Jun 2020)

WHO now advising masks should be worn by the public


----------



## tom73 (5 Jun 2020)

@marinyork Maybe that's the plan try and gloss over the bad bit's. 
Look's like it's no just a minister and no expert just when you though it can't get any worse. 
Wonder if it's anything to do with the last few days when they made it clear that the government was not listening.


----------



## Salty seadog (5 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> WHO now advising masks should be worn by the public
> 
> View attachment 527691



Just read the Profs article in the press.


----------



## marinyork (5 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> @marinyork Maybe that's the plan try and gloss over the bad bit's.
> Look's like it's no just a minister and no expert just when you though it can't get any worse.
> Wonder if it's anything to do with the last few days when they made it clear that the government was not listening.



I genuinely do think it's political management of the message. These are things that need announcing, however I regard it as very silly because if you draw out these new announcements each day they'll have less impact. We all know Matt likes a good target/announcement. I don't have much of a problem with face coverings in hospitals, we'll see if these announcements keep on going if there's a run on masks and coverings.

It also dilutes out any public health message, which is a very critical thing at the moment. Because as we all know everything's tip top for back to normal in June and July .

Locally the gantries on the ring road I see all the time whatever form of transport I use have changed today to sociall distancing saves lives from essential journeys only.


----------



## Rocky (5 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Locally the gantries on the ring road I see all the time whatever form of transport I use have changed today to sociall distancing saves lives from essential journeys only.


The one coming into Oxford on the A40 from London still tells me to Stay Alert........which is quite helpful as I'm usually feeling sleepy by that stage of the journey.


----------



## Beebo (5 Jun 2020)

that‘s two press conferenceS this week without a scientific expert taking questions. 

Seems strange, have the scientist said they won’t do it anymore.


----------



## Rusty Nails (5 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> that‘s two press conferenceS this week without a scientific expert taking questions.
> 
> Seems strange, have the scientist said they won’t do it anymore.


I sometimes think the scientists are in these briefings to act as cover for the politicians. Graphs and statistics can be obtained from government sites and more often than not the questions asked in the briefings are political and do not really need a scientist to answer. I prefer the scientists to be used sparingly when there is new evidence/knowledge to impart rather than routinely taking the pressure off politicians.


----------



## Salty seadog (5 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> that‘s two press conferenceS this week without a scientific expert taking questions.
> 
> Seems strange, have the scientist said they won’t do it anymore.



Nope, they've all agreed that Cummings broke lockdown rules and said it at the podium. They've been moved aside. Now it's little Matt all on his own controlling the message.


----------



## tom73 (5 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> that‘s two press conferenceS this week without a scientific expert taking questions.
> 
> Seems strange, have the scientist said they won’t do it anymore.


More like they've been sent to naughty step for not complying with the everything is fine message.


----------



## tom73 (5 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Nope, they've all agreed that Cummings broke lockdown rules and said it at the podium. They've been moved aside. Now it's little Matt all on his own controlling the message.



He will have to be careful with no-one to pass the cleaver questions on to bluff them too many times and he will look even more the clown.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> that‘s two press conferenceS this week without a scientific expert taking questions.
> 
> Seems strange, have the scientist said they won’t do it anymore.


Or have they been asked to? I got the feeling that Whitty was making himself persona non grata a couple of days ago, and Harries' comments before that about breaking lockdown and Cummings appear to have unsettled the government.


----------



## tom73 (5 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> I genuinely do think it's political management of the message. These are things that need announcing, however I regard it as very silly because if you draw out these new announcements each day they'll have less impact. We all know Matt likes a good target/announcement. I don't have much of a problem with face coverings in hospitals, we'll see if these announcements keep on going if there's a run on masks and coverings.
> 
> It also dilutes out any public health message, which is a very critical thing at the moment. Because as we all know everything's tip top for back to normal in June and July .
> 
> Locally the gantries on the ring road I see all the time whatever form of transport I use have changed today to sociall distancing saves lives from essential journeys only.



I agree though they've not been all that keen to push the public health messages from the start. So can't see them getting a grip of it now which as you say we sadly need.


----------



## randynewmanscat (5 Jun 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Going out for a beer isn't looking likely any time soon for us. Though I'll be out collecting a case of beer this afternoon - it's been delivery only for a good while but collection is now an option. Last time I had a drink in a hostelry was 8 March.


Aye, for me I think it was the 15th of march just before the schools and colleges shut down here. Its nice to have a little slice of social life back though I can see a recipe for trouble late at night when people are worse for wear and forgetting cautious behaviour. It is easier than I thought to be vigilant, dodge out of peoples way and keep my hands completely off my face when sober but after alcohol I doubt it, we shall see if the numbers go up due to bar attendance.


----------



## randynewmanscat (5 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Hancock's turn to issue mask advice.
> Everyone member of the public going into hospital will have to wear face covering.
> All staff clinical or not will have to wear class 1 or 2 masks.
> He then went on to make a joke
> Health staff are asked to self isolate he will support them even if it means the whole department.


They give you a mask on the door in clinics or hospitals if you don't turn up with one. I see more people wearing masks now than during the strict confinement, its seen as a social gesture of respect towards your fellow shoppers, whatevers.
You would not get on a bus or train without one here and if you kicked off about your rights or some such crap you would be seeing police soon or having your fellow travelers push you out of the way.
USA is pretty strange at the moment, my cousin tells me that in the "hick" states it is seen as a sign of weakness to wear a mask, feel glad you don't live in Michigan or North Carolina.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (5 Jun 2020)

There's no scientists at the briefing because the government aren't interested in the science any more. The 14 day quarantine is a political raspberry being blown at them. Nothing to do with science, everything to do with Priti Pathetic Patel being seen to do something.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> There's no scientists at the briefing because the government aren't interested in the science any more. The 14 day quarantine is a political raspberry being blown at them. Nothing to do with science, everything to do with Priti Pathetic Patel being seen to do something.


I'd imagine that no countries were prepared to open air corridors to the UK until it got infection levels down, the quarantine being just a distraction from that uncomfortable fact.


----------



## srw (5 Jun 2020)

johnblack said:


> as so many deaths are of those who were nearing the end of their lives


It's worth saying that the best evidence is that this isn't the case - many of the people killed would, in all likelihood, have lived for years longer.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (5 Jun 2020)

srw said:


> It's worth saying that the best evidence is that this isn't the case - many of the people killed would, in all likelihood, have lived for years longer.



On average ten years or so

https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...d-19-victims-have-died-soon-without-the-virus


----------



## mjr (5 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> You could announce these new groups wearing masks once a day. Who's next? Politicians? Ballerinas? Journalists? Cyclists? Pupils?


Special advisers driving long distance?


----------



## mjr (5 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Also anyone know the number of home test kits that never get sent back?
> We know the number of tests carried out figure is a fiddle but do they also inc the ones that never come back as well?


Unless it's changed, home tests are counted when they're sent out.


----------



## tom73 (6 Jun 2020)

Just when it's looking like Hancock is slowly getting what this virus is all about. He calmly gives hospitals 9 day's notice at 5 o'clock in the afternoon that hospital visiting will go's back to normal and out of thin air they need to find even more PPE. 
Is he just picking stuff out a hat before he go's in front of the camera ? 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-were-not-consulted-nhs-trust-chiefs-complain


----------



## Ming the Merciless (6 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> My local pharmacy no one wears anything.



Makes diagnosing STDs that bit easier


----------



## Ming the Merciless (6 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Unless it's changed, home tests are counted when they're sent out.



The ought to report the number of test results completed and how many people that is each day.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 Jun 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The ought to report the number of test results completed and how many people that is each day.


What, track the tests?


----------



## midlife (6 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just when it's looking like Hancock is slowly getting what this virus is all about. He calmly gives hospitals 9 day's notice at 5 o'clock in the afternoon that hospital visiting will go's back to normal and out of thin air they need to find even more PPE.
> Is he just picking stuff out a hat before he go's in front of the camera ?
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-were-not-consulted-nhs-trust-chiefs-complain



Its not clear who in hospitals should wear marks, the way I read it is that masks do not need to be worn in Covid secure parts of the hospital. Our building is meant to be covid secure!


----------



## Slick (6 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Its not clear who in hospitals should wear marks, the way I read it is that masks do not need to be worn in Covid secure parts of the hospital. Our building is meant to be covid secure!


I think they do. I've posted this elsewhere and it is a bit long but the advice is quite clear in the first few minutes although he does get the age range wrong. 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019


----------



## marinyork (6 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Its not clear who in hospitals should wear marks, the way I read it is that masks do not need to be worn in Covid secure parts of the hospital. Our building is meant to be covid secure!



Aren't all businesses or pretty much anything that reopens supposed to be covid secure?


----------



## Slick (6 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Aren't all businesses or pretty much anything that reopens supposed to be covid secure?


What does that mean exactly and who can say they are secure? 

I'm responsible for protecting my work place when we reopen and I struggle with the whole concept.


----------



## marinyork (6 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> What does that mean exactly and who can say they are secure?
> 
> I'm responsible for protecting my work place when we reopen and I struggle with the whole concept.



Covid secure is just the name for the set of standards which is a condition of reopening. I was just pointing out how ridiculous it would be if the scenario midlife said was the case. It's a silly name for Boris to keep saying and using in the documents. Most useful thing I found was the SAGE paper on spread.

I have come up with a scenario for being covid secure for actitivites inside a venue that will itself have to be. That is still some time off I might add. Others werent very happy and thought it was so bad face to face might as well cease to continue. The level of risk is hard to judge because of the unknowns of the personal lives outside that room.

There'll be a tiny bit of enforcement but it just runs on interpretation and trust. For some things open presently I do believe the risk has been reduced a fair old whack.

How are you getting on with your plans?


----------



## midlife (6 Jun 2020)

Here is what Hancock said... 

He added: “And to offer even greater protection, we are also providing new guidance for NHS staff in England which will come into force again on the 15th of June.

“All hospital staff will be required to wear type 1 or 2 surgical masks, and this will cover all staff working in hospital,” he said.

“It will apply at all times, not just when they are doing their life-saving work on the frontline. It will apply in all areas except those areas designated as Covid-secure workplaces.”


----------



## oldwheels (6 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Its not clear who in hospitals should wear marks, the way I read it is that masks do not need to be worn in Covid secure parts of the hospital. Our building is meant to be covid secure!


I have an appointment for a scan on Monday. When I arrive I wait outside and report in by mobile phone [this assumes probably correctly that everybody has one]. Somebody will come to get me when ready and I will be required to use hand sanitiser and then given a face mask at the entrance before answering some Covid questions. This is NHS Highland.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Jun 2020)

What bugs me is we have Sturgeon "strongly advising" people wear masks in shops but the supermarkets I've seen don't have staff wearing them. I would have thought H&S would be all over that.


----------



## Slick (6 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Covid secure is just the name for the set of standards which is a condition of reopening. I was just pointing out how ridiculous it would be if the scenario midlife said was the case. It's a silly name for Boris to keep saying and using in the documents. Most useful thing I found was the SAGE paper on spread.
> 
> I have come up with a scenario for being covid secure for actitivites inside a venue that will itself have to be. That is still some time off I might add. Others werent very happy and thought it was so bad face to face might as well cease to continue. The level of risk is hard to judge because of the unknowns of the personal lives outside that room.
> 
> ...


Not brilliant to be honest. Very difficult to see how you can put people in a classroom setting and not be at risk. Saying that everything in life carries a degree of risk is not going to cut it for people that are frightened that this could cost them or their families their life. Sounds dramatic but that's the reality of the situation.


----------



## midlife (6 Jun 2020)

oldwheels said:


> I have an appointment for a scan on Monday. When I arrive I wait outside and report in by mobile phone [this assumes probably correctly that everybody has one]. Somebody will come to get me when ready and I will be required to use hand sanitiser and then given a face mask at the entrance before answering some Covid questions. This is NHS Highland.



And this is the sort of thing that happens when patients visit our building. Unfortunately it was built on a car park and everything is crammed in and its essentially impossible for all the staff inside to keep 2 metres apart while we go about our daily jobs. So do the staff all have to wear masks at work? I guess I'll find out Monday morning.


----------



## Slick (6 Jun 2020)

oldwheels said:


> I have an appointment for a scan on Monday. When I arrive I wait outside and report in by mobile phone [this assumes probably correctly that everybody has one]. Somebody will come to get me when ready and I will be required to use hand sanitiser and then given a face mask at the entrance before answering some Covid questions. This is NHS Highland.


This could be something we utilise if we ever get back to work.


----------



## mjr (6 Jun 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The ought to report the number of test results completed and how many people that is each day.


That sounds dangerously like being an expert! Do you want to be deported?


----------



## Slick (6 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> What bugs me is we have Sturgeon "strongly advising" people wear masks in shops but the supermarkets I've seen don't have staff wearing them. I would have thought H&S would be all over that.


The advice is changing all the time but one constant is that masks are not a magic bullet. Supermarket staff that I've seen are either 2m away or behind a screen.


----------



## marinyork (6 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> And this is the sort of thing that happens when patients visit our building. Unfortunately it was built on a car park and everything is crammed in and its essentially impossible for all the staff inside to keep 2 metres apart while we go about our daily jobs. So do the staff all have to wear masks at work? I guess I'll find out Monday morning.



Surely all the staff should be wearing masks as social distancing isn't possible? This would be the same as any other workplace whatsoever from that limited point of view.


----------



## tom73 (6 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Its not clear who in hospitals should wear marks, the way I read it is that masks do not need to be worn in Covid secure parts of the hospital. Our building is meant to be covid secure!


That bit just got looked to to have been thrown in at the end and makes no sense. Maybe today he will come out with everyone to be treated form behind a plastic screen, standing back to back and at the same time keeping social distance.


----------



## tom73 (6 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Surely all the staff should be wearing masks as social distancing isn't possible? This would be the same as any other workplace whatsoever from that limited point of view.


You'd think so but it's not happening


----------



## marinyork (6 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> What bugs me is we have Sturgeon "strongly advising" people wear masks in shops but the supermarkets I've seen don't have staff wearing them. I would have thought H&S would be all over that.



Supermarkets are not generally places with a strong health and safety culture. Bit of health and safety around yards (not necessarily that stringently enforced) and pallets. Date checking (not as rigorously done as people might think). A few other things. Supermarkets are the sorts of places where even if they were mandated without interventions after 2 weeks only a third of the staff would be wearing them. The most H&S environment is probably deli/counters.

The workers who've been there for Feb/March/April/May working continuously will have a very different idea of the risk to many of the rest of us. Supermarket workers are definitely not sticking to 2 metres from the rest of the staff, which will be one of the types of risks. If a supermarket worker gets it, it is likely to spread to other workers as happens every year with norovirus and ordinary flu. The risk at the moment won't be quite as high as I think people are staying slightly farther apart and the shops are emptier. When I worked in a supermarket/pharmacy I had a different attitude to seasonal flu (not like coronavirus). I was coughed and sneezed on at close proximity, but if I tried to keep my distance and handwash along with a young and healthy immune system I didn't get it. That's not to mean you behave in a silly way, just saying that how the workers will perceive the risk is different from us closeted up at home (including me). Now I go outside extensively for exercise I'm happyish with that, but I'm not going to any indoor environments far more nervous about that than if I was back where I used to work.


----------



## marinyork (6 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> Not brilliant to be honest. Very difficult to see how you can put people in a classroom setting and not be at risk. Saying that everything in life carries a degree of risk is not going to cut it for people that are frightened that this could cost them or their families their life. Sounds dramatic but that's the reality of the situation.



I reckon I worry about getting the virus more than around 90% of people. In previous months I thought less, but I've interacted with more people. If my father gets it I think that's almost guaranteed hospital stay and pretty good chance of the more serious scenarios of extended ICU or death.

There is a risk in all environments, particularly indoor ones for extended periods of time. I think peoples' perception of risk will shift a bit once the schools go back properly.


----------



## midlife (6 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Surely all the staff should be wearing masks as social distancing isn't possible? This would be the same as any other workplace whatsoever from that limited point of view.



That's the theory.....


----------



## marinyork (6 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> That's the theory.....



I'm not sure there's much any of us can do about getting supply issues sorted or influencing mass behaviour. Even if we can these behaviours are time limited for days/weeks and then stop partially/totally. A second wave and localised outbreaks are coming anyway whatever we do.


----------



## tom73 (6 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm not sure there's much any of us can do about getting supply issues sorted or influencing mass behaviour. Even if we can these behaviours are time limited for days/weeks and then stop partially/totally. A second wave and localised outbreaks are coming anyway whatever we do.



The scenes in London of protests don't look good if it's repeated in other part of the country. Then the 2rd wave odds have just got even more shorter.


----------



## flake99please (6 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Supermarkets are not generally places with a strong health and safety culture. Bit of health and safety around yards (not necessarily that stringently enforced) and pallets. Date checking (not as rigorously done as people might think). A few other things. Supermarkets are the sorts of places where even if they were mandated without interventions *after 2 weeks only a third of the staff would be wearing them*. The most H&S environment is probably deli/counters.
> 
> The workers who've been there for Feb/March/April/May working continuously will have a very different idea of the risk to many of the rest of us. Supermarket workers are definitely not sticking to 2 metres from the rest of the staff, which will be one of the types of risks.



It took about 4 weeks for the standards to slip. Mask wearing is still mandatory, yet most staff on my 0400hrs shift start don’t wear theirs until the store opens (0900hrs). Management are arguably the worst offenders for non compliance.

Social distancing is practically nonexistent between staff. The only exception is in the break room.


----------



## oldwheels (6 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> What bugs me is we have Sturgeon "strongly advising" people wear masks in shops but the supermarkets I've seen don't have staff wearing them. I would have thought H&S would be all over that.


Not all the customers are wearing them either. This why I am forbidden by my family from going into any large mainland supermarket. Mind you I am not allowed anyway as I am shielding for another week. Our local coop which is a mini supermarket has one staff member wearing a mask tho' the door guard has one hung round his neck. Leaving things to common sense does not really work and time to introduce compulsion which raises further arguments about the effectiveness or otherwise of masks. I do not presume to be an expert so will wear one anyway where appropriate.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Jun 2020)

My feelings about masks are - what harm do they do? There’s lots of evidence that says they help to some degree but nothing credible saying people get sick because of them.

it’s a pandemic.

Over 40,000 dead.

Wear a farking mask.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (6 Jun 2020)

The harm is that people think masks protect them and ignore social distancing and / or do not minimise time spent in close contact with each other.


----------



## midlife (6 Jun 2020)

It seems to be all kicking off in London., tens of thousands packed together and now a riot......


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (6 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> It seems to be all kicking off in London., tens of thousands packed together and now a riot......


Riot? Do you have a link for that please?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Jun 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/PMBreakingNews/status/1269318298489049089


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Jun 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/Urban_Pictures/status/1268227663765942272


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Jun 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The harm is that people think masks protect them and ignore social distancing and / or do not minimise time spent in close contact with each other.



You can't reason with stupid


----------



## Ming the Merciless (6 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> You can't reason with stupid



Unintended consequences making things worse when you think they make things better


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (6 Jun 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Unintended consequences making things worse when you think they make things better


I would say, on balance, the benefits outweigh the consequences of stupid people being stupid. As we've seen already, the stupid have been ignoring guidelines vrtually from day one anyway.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> You can't reason with stupid



It's not stupid. It's risk compensation, a well known phenomenon. Of course, how significant it is in this context is unknown. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_compensation


----------



## Slick (6 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/Urban_Pictures/status/1268227663765942272



I feel very sorry for the police. Not only have they got to deal with that crowd not knowing who is infected and who isn't, there is one guy there who looks like he's taking a bit of a pasting but frightened to retaliate.


----------



## RoadRider400 (6 Jun 2020)

Roger Longbottom said:


> The county where I currently reside has gone back over 1 on the R. Talking about reintroducing lockdown.
> 
> Some people, not all, have taken the relaxing of the rules as a green light to go back to normal,* I don't know what goes through their minds.*


Not a lot usually.


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (6 Jun 2020)

Roger Longbottom said:


> The county where I currently reside has gone back over 1 on the R. Talking about reintroducing lockdown.
> 
> Some people, not all, have taken the relaxing of the rules as a green light to go back to normal, I don't know what goes through their minds.



Already living through different lockdown strategies to England here in Scotland. No schools open as yet, less social interaction, etc. Will be interesting to see if rates diverge. Though it seems at least initially that R is not rising hugely in England despite the easing?


----------



## mjr (7 Jun 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> Already living through different lockdown strategies to England here in Scotland. No schools open as yet, less social interaction, etc. Will be interesting to see if rates diverge. Though it seems at least initially that R is not rising hugely in England despite the easing?


Depends what you mean by hugely. R is now approximately 1, according to Friday's update on https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

This may be another reason for increased mask promotion and compulsion, else next week's reopenings will start wave 2


----------



## marinyork (7 Jun 2020)

All NHS and care workers in England are being offered the antibody test (Sky).


----------



## brodiej (7 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> All NHS and care workers in England are being offered the antibody test (Sky).



This has been happening for at least a week.

I had mine yesterday. Over 3000 at my work have been tested or have booked a test in the next week.

It’ll be interesting when the results come out.


----------



## tom73 (7 Jun 2020)

That's been said before though and never happened they no sooner started it stoped as the test was found not to work. 
Mrs 73 has never had one and not likely to any time soon. She's been moved back to prison health care last week to sort things out it's a total mess. No one's getting tested for anything other than health staff no one else has any PPE. Social distancing never really started only a handful of ones at high covid at risk got released. Hardly any single cells so self isolation never happens not even if you may have covid.
As things on the out side open up it's just a big ticking public health bomb waiting to go off.


----------



## marinyork (7 Jun 2020)

brodiej said:


> This has been happening for at least a week.
> 
> I had mine yesterday. Over 3000 at my work have been tested or have booked a test in the next week.
> 
> It’ll be interesting when the results come out.



Seen many times the informal commitments the government have made on it.

I just hope the information is used to gain insights.


----------



## tom73 (7 Jun 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Unintended consequences making things worse when you think they make things better


That's not a 100% true on public face covering I've not seen any creditable social science which back it up. 
In fact social science evidence is starting to show it's effecting how people interact and you're more likely to stay a part from each other. 
Most of the stuff that keeps being dragged out about why face coverings are not a good idea don't really stack up. 
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jep.13415


----------



## tom73 (7 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Seen many times the informal commitments the government have made on it.
> 
> I just hope the information is used to gain insights.


I think it's just more about Hancock and his sweetie jar. The basics still need fixing local lockdowns lock downs look increasingly in need quickly. But even now PHE are not passing on postcode testing data to local public health officers.


----------



## brodiej (7 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Seen many times the informal commitments the government have made on it.
> 
> I just hope the information is used to gain insights.



I agree about the insights.

It isn't entirely clear who, if anyone, will look at the data.


----------



## marinyork (7 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's not a 100% true on public face covering I've not seen any creditable social science which back it up.



I wish three months later we could say we had nailed the supply problems once and for all on masks, respirators and coverings. Any time there is an increase in demand through a policy change or panic buying it's worrying. It's just for coverings at the moment thankfully and the message has been make your own.

In Italy in March there was a huge amount of coverage that everyone in germany was going to die because they weren't wearing masks or having restrictions they called lockdowns. For reasons I don't understand Italy had a very plentiful supply of masks and respirators available for the general public to hoard on a mass scale, which Italians did. Three months later the UK still doesn't have enough.


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## marinyork (7 Jun 2020)

brodiej said:


> I agree about the insights.
> 
> It isn't entirely clear who, if anyone, will look at the data.



I am glad it's being done. I saw the sky report where no less than a medical director was being given her results. It doesn't make up for other failings but may offer reassurance. As a patient my father was offered elisa serology screenings twice and came back negative and in a funny way is reassuring. This will be how some feel too. On the other hand now if that happened again I'm not sure how I'd feel as now we know 7% of the population are estimated to have had the virus.

Reason why I'm slightly sceptical apart from Matt Hancock is in Italy they have done these sorts of tests rather willy nilly for some time, starting earlier than the UK and it doesn't seem to be being used for some useful study there. Maybe it will come.


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## mjr (7 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> In Italy in March there was a huge amount of coverage that everyone in germany was going to die because they weren't wearing masks or having restrictions they called lockdowns. For reasons I don't understand Italy had a very plentiful supply of masks and respirators available for the general public to hoard on a mass scale, which Italians did. Three months later the UK still doesn't have enough.


Italy had more clothing factories (even Castelli switched to making PPE), quickly planned to become self-sufficient in 8 weeks (I don't know if this was achieved) and less competition for imports because they were hit early.


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## mjr (7 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Reason why I'm slightly sceptical apart from Matt Hancock is in Italy


Lack of punctuation portrays a better world!

In reality, that Hancock was in London, talking at Marr, evading as many questions as possible for no obvious reason and trolling the National Statistician.


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## tom73 (7 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> I wish three months later we could say we had nailed the supply problems once and for all on masks, respirators and coverings. Any time there is an increase in demand through a policy change or panic buying it's worrying. It's just for coverings at the moment thankfully and the message has been make your own.
> 
> In Italy in March there was a huge amount of coverage that everyone in germany was going to die because they weren't wearing masks or having restrictions they called lockdowns. For reasons I don't understand Italy had a very plentiful supply of masks and respirators available for the general public to hoard on a mass scale, which Italians did. Three months later the UK still doesn't have enough.



Your right it's not nailed if only the government opened up and asked for help. The right people are still not running it , we still don't have a central register of companies that are able to supply or with some shop floor and tooling changers can supply. Why registers like this , for national emergencies like this. Was never made part of the Civil Contingencies Act is odd. A manufacturing cat 1 and 2 list ready to go would have helped a lot. We can't blame the current one for that as no government every fixed it. Equally LA's need a up and running local list of volunteers who can if needed do the little things as we have now. When I was department head of volunteering I wanted to set one up together with local groups who can help that are not on the cat1 or 2 list. But just kept getting a brick wall community reliance is not something councils like unless they are the ones controlling it. They also don't like asking for help or admitting they need it. 

As with so many things in social and health policy we need much more targeted support and targeted unlocking. Free face coverings if we get them need to get to one's who need them. We need a clear simple public health message on why and how you use them. It's not that difficult as kids we quickly learn how to use a hankie. We already have the the flu catch it , bin it. It's not the same as a clinical setting and that needs to cut though. To deal with any negative thinking on the issue. We've had and still are getting so many mixed public health messages it need's someone to take it over and oversee it with one format, one set message. We made a good start at the beginning with the same posters at the same placers now it's all over the place. Shops have different ones , councils have own take it. We have set road signs for reason , successful companies have set formats for a reason. Yet the current public health one is all over the place. We can't safely unlock without one.


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## marinyork (7 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> As with so many things in social and health policy we need much more targeted support and targeted unlocking. Free face coverings if we get them need to get to one's who need them. We need a clear simple public health message on why and how you use them. It's not that difficult as kids we quickly learn how to use a hankie. We already have the the flu catch it , bin it. It's not the same as a clinical setting and that needs to cut though. To deal with any negative thinking on the issue. We've had and still are getting so many mixed public health messages it need's someone to take it over and oversee it with one format, one set message. We made a good start at the beginning with the same posters at the same placers now it's all over the place. Shops have different ones , councils have own take it. We have set road signs for reason , successful companies have set formats for a reason. Yet the current public health one is all over the place. We can't safely unlock without one.



It could have been as part of covid secure, to have set posters!

Not that opinions here count very much, but as it's such a central plank of the getting even vaguely close to anyone indoors I'd have two public messages. One public information campaign on coverings and one on the 2 metre rule. I suspect there isn't these campaigns on some level as the government's changed/changing its mind on both of late. I don't think PHE are the people to do this either. 

coverings, something along the lines of:

recap that we're 4 months in and hard to assess level of risk, but more is known now
40%+ are asymptomatic
the virus spreads a lot easier indoors (present evidence/stat)
wearing a covering can stop you passing it on to someone else, who then passes it on to someone else
it's hard to keep distance in a non-household indoor environment so must be worn then if less than 2m. 
public transport a risk (cite evidence)
all responsible for health and safety at work, wouldn't want people important to us who are at high risk to get it
it's a big change for society, be polite to people and follow instructions, remind others politely.

2 metre rule, something along the lines of:

complexity of environments but 2 metres a distance where the risk is very small
graphics of set ups
hard number
comparison of 1 m, 50 cm, 2 m. indoors/outdoors/well ventilated
hard, but if people stick 2 metres apart, reduce contact significantly and follow other guidance then physically distanced social activities and work and some degree of normal life can exist for the next year. the alternative being waves of lockdowns.
Interesting health officials and medics have been saying the last 24 hours they want a public information message. The daily press conferences need ditching. There's not any new news most days and they are a massive distraction and lose their impact having them every day. The media discourse is now all about panicked teachers and parents, MPs grumbling about going back to work and endless stuff about jolly holidays.

In general I am sceptical about getting people to do things for a prolongued period of time. For me the public information campaign would have an impact of maybe a month to help things on before a second smaller wave or if we're lucky before the winter wave. When things do change, behaviour will likely change. 

The track and trace message (not that that's properly running any time soon is not clear enough). It makes it sound like anyone who comes into contact is high risk and have to quarantine for 14 days. In fact less than 2 m for more than 15 minutes. Rather different. But as Whitty said himself, this fits into the whole 2 metres thing. 

There's a public message needed on the App too (wjhenever that 'properly' happens).


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## tom73 (7 Jun 2020)

Yep think you've crack it , not that hard is it ? We can see it but why can't the ones who need to see it?
We've got signage reg's for everything else so why ? The 'covid secure' stuff are just the latest in the long list of we advise, it's recommend. Too woolly to be of help just giving a few pointers and then saying it's up to you how you do it. Which has been clear for some time is not good enough. The latest to have this applied to will be placers of worship.

Do they really expect a church warden or the vicar to stop small groups turning up and praying together? Same go's for other placers of worship. It's not going to happen will the police really be willing to turn up and clear out a place of worship given current tensions ? Or pictures of local public health officer closing the place down ?

Too much of this is being driven by pressure , or the press. It looking like the pace of the unlock is going up gear next week.
Some within the NHS are already openly talking of a 2rd wave and the need to ready. But still the government look to be doing a "charge of the light brigade" all over the science and public health. 

On the App why don't we have a public health one be easy to update and be a simple one stop shop for advice and help ?


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## Joey Shabadoo (7 Jun 2020)

With tens of thousands now congregating in public, the lockdown tactic is completely finished. Will we see a spike in a week?


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## Slick (7 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> With tens of thousands now congregating in public, the lockdown tactic is completely finished. Will we see a spike in a week?


2 max.


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## mjr (7 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> With tens of thousands now congregating in public, the lockdown tactic is completely finished. Will we see a spike in a week?


Be aware that some of the photos are doing the same sort of foreshortening trick as was used against cyclists earlier.

One gathering is unlikely to start a second wave alone. Which of thousands of buses every day or a few dozen one off gatherings is more likely to be a problem? Do we concentrate on the woods or a few trees?


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## Slick (7 Jun 2020)

The usual under reporting of deaths over the weekend apply but zero deaths in Scotland over the past 24 hours which may signal some hope.


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## Slick (7 Jun 2020)

First time scince March.


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## midlife (7 Jun 2020)

Do Scotland still not count deaths if the result comes from a commercial lab, or did I miss read an article a while ago?


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## mjr (7 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Do Scotland still not count deaths if the result comes from a commercial lab, or did I miss read an article a while ago?


I thought England was also guilty of that undercounting?


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## Slick (7 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> I thought England was also guilty of that undercounting?


No links, but I think that's correct. 

Despite no recorded deaths today, she did also say that further deaths were likely. 

I just felt it was a significant moment for us which is why I shared it.


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## fossyant (7 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> With tens of thousands now congregating in public, the lockdown tactic is completely finished. Will we see a spike in a week?



Two to three weeks I'd say. I hope my nephew is keeping well clear from his dad after going to the protests at weekend - his dad has dodgy ticker !


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## fossyant (7 Jun 2020)

fossyant said:


> Two to three weeks I'd say. I hope my nephew is keeping well clear from his dad after going to the protests at weekend - his dad has dodgy ticker !



My other nephew had to try to steer clear of the protests in Manchester - had to go into work for a CV19 test, with a hope to going back next week. His mum works at a care home (he lives with mum), so my wife making masks for when other nephew needs to use public transport.


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## Rusty Nails (7 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Be aware that some of the photos are doing the same sort of foreshortening trick as was used against cyclists earlier.
> 
> *One gathering is unlikely to start a second wave alone*. Which of thousands of buses every day or a few dozen one off gatherings is more likely to be a problem? Do we concentrate on the woods or a few trees?



That is not the point. It is not about causing 'the next wave' but a smaller series of localised spikes. It sets the principle that it is OK to have mass close contact meetings if the cause is just, and who decides if the next cause is just. Cummings actions were unlikely to cause a future second wave, but the example he set, and got away with, weakened the guidelines and gave waverers an excuse to follow suit. The principle is the same here, but with greater risks in the very short term.

I know it is difficult, and not popular, to criticise anything to do with the Black Lives Matter demonstrations but this is possibly the one specific criticism that is valid.


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## Joey Shabadoo (7 Jun 2020)

I wonder how many deaths are going to be attributable to these demos and if the victims think it was a cause worth dying for?


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## mjr (7 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I know it is difficult, and not popular, to criticise anything to do with the Black Lives Matter demonstrations but this is possibly the one specific criticism that is valid.


It really isn't. Let's criticise any lack of social distancing at it. Let's criticise the cynical government advice not to protest (rather than them helping the protest to be as low risk as possible). But please let's not criticise the protest for happening at all.


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## marinyork (7 Jun 2020)

Most people estimate locally there were 6000 in town yesterday. I don't know about other cities. There are a lot of cities. A lot of postmillenials seemed very conflicted about attendence.

It does have to be said that new cases per day is estimated to be 5600 a day and this has fallen a lot. Around just before lockdown it's estimated it was 100,000 new cases a day.

The 1000 people on park greens everyday in groups of 8-15 for the last two or three weeks is another that'll tip it upwards.


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## mjr (7 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I wonder how many deaths are going to be attributable to these demos and if the victims think it was a cause worth dying for?


A few dozen, probably. Most deaths after the early stages don't get attributed to any particular cause. I strongly suspect the increased mobility after Cummings will have caused more.


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## Rusty Nails (7 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> It really isn't. Let's criticise any lack of social distancing at it. Let's criticise the cynical government advice not to protest (rather than them helping the protest to be as low risk as possible). *But please let's not criticise the protest for happening at all.*


Luckily I didn't do that, then. It is the disregard for social distancing that I criticised. I am glad we are in agreement.


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## Solocle (7 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Most people estimate locally there were 6000 in town yesterday. I don't know about other cities. There are a lot of cities. A lot of postmillenials seemed very conflicted about attendence.
> 
> It does have to be said that new cases per day is estimated to be 5600 a day and this has fallen a lot. Around just before lockdown it's estimated it was 100,000 new cases a day.
> 
> The 1000 people on park greens everyday in groups of 8-15 for the last two or three weeks is another that'll tip it upwards.


And it's estimated that 0.1% of the population have COVID... so that would be around 6 active cases in the protest.

More significantly though, the demographics of these protests lean towards the black community being overrepresented... the same community already hit hard by Corona... 

If these protests don't die down soon, then I expect there will be far more active cases in any given protest (since people exposed at previous protests are going to be much more likely to re-attend...)

Chances are that a significant number of black people will die from respiratory distress as a direct result of the protest.

The fact that they're chanting "I can't breathe" is really beyond parody.


The worst pandemic in a century really isn't the time to be protesting, especially when the protest is focused on another ing country. I mean, seriously! I bet Donald Trump really cares about protests in London...


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## AndyRM (7 Jun 2020)

Solocle said:


> And it's estimated that 0.1% of the population have COVID... so that would be around 6 active cases in the protest.
> 
> More significantly though, the demographics of these protests lean towards the black community being overrepresented... the same community already hit hard by Corona...
> 
> ...



Just so you know, the protest isn't focused on another country.


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## Solocle (7 Jun 2020)

AndyRM said:


> Just so you know, the protest isn't focused on another country.


At the end of the day, it is. George Floyd is the core issue. Sure, they might say that it applies to the UK, but the UK situation really is nothing like the US. They wouldn't be out on the streets if it weren't for the murder of George Floyd.

These protests are going to kill more black people than have died from police brutality in this country for _decades_ by my reckoning.

Honestly, anybody who thinks attending a protest in the current climate is a good idea really is a few pecans short of a fruitcake.


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## Salty seadog (7 Jun 2020)

Solocle said:


> At the end of the day, it is. George Floyd is the core issue. Sure, they might say that it applies to the UK, but the UK situation really is nothing like the US. They wouldn't be out on the streets if it weren't for the murder of George Floyd.
> 
> These protests are going to kill more black people than have died from police brutality in this country for _decades_ by my reckoning.
> 
> Honestly, anybody who thinks attending a protest in the current climate is a good idea really is a few pecans short of a fruitcake.



George Floyd is a victim of the core issue. The incident is however a focus towards the core issue that is not confined to other countries.


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## AndyRM (7 Jun 2020)

Solocle said:


> At the end of the day, it is. George Floyd is the core issue. Sure, they might say that it applies to the UK, but the UK situation really is nothing like the US. They wouldn't be out on the streets if it weren't for the murder of George Floyd.
> 
> These protests are going to kill more black people than have died from police brutality in this country for _decades_ by my reckoning.
> 
> Honestly, anybody who thinks attending a protest in the current climate is a good idea really is a few pecans short of a fruitcake.



At the end of the day, it isn't.

And if you don't think the UK is just as systematically racist as the US then you too are a few pecans short of a fruitcake.


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## Ming the Merciless (7 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's not a 100% true on public face covering I've not seen any creditable social science which back it up.
> In fact social science evidence is starting to show it's effecting how people interact and you're more likely to stay a part from each other.
> Most of the stuff that keeps being dragged out about why face coverings are not a good idea don't really stack up.
> https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jep.13415



That because the science hasn’t really been done. Certainly the evidence here that people wearing masks and gloves is that they can come closer to you than 2 meters.

Plus just look at the protests. Plenty of masks being worn but social distancing ignored and I bet they are not currently self isolating after the event.


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## Rocky (7 Jun 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> That because the science hasn’t really been done. Certainly the evidence here that people wearing masks and gloves is that they can come closer to you than 2 meters.


What science would you like, that hasn’t already been published?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/05/face-masks-coronavirus


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## Ming the Merciless (7 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> What science would you like, that hasn’t already been published?
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/05/face-masks-coronavirus



The behavioural science . What you have linked to it is reduction is how far virus particles travel but if people then feel they don’t need to give you space, that is undermined.


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## Rocky (7 Jun 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The behavioural science . What you have linked to it is reduction is how far virus particles travel but if people then feel they don’t need to give you space, that is undermined.


The behavioural science has been done......for example there's this one that suggests masks keep people away and increase social distancing......

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf

The inherent problem is that this is a public health issue which doesn't lend itself to traditional medical or clinical trials. So getting the science is somewhat challenging - however the best evidence comes from cross country comparisons (facemask wearing countries vs non-) although, as I'm sure you are aware there many confounding variable getting in the way causal analysis.

BTW that Guardian article I linked to focuses on the challenges of providing evidence - it's not really just about particle transmission.


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## tom73 (7 Jun 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> That because the science hasn’t really been done. Certainly the evidence here that people wearing masks and gloves is that they can come closer to you than 2 meters.
> 
> Plus just look at the protests. Plenty of masks being worn but social distancing ignored and I bet they are not currently self isolating after the event.


Don’t muddy the waters and talk of gloves that’s a red herring. That’s not even been talk about as a way to help out of unlock. I’d say the lack of social distance at the protests. Is down to it being just that a protest and not because of mask use.

Pandemics don’t lead themselves to normal science time lines they are moving at much more faster rates so areas of work open up every day. Conducting normal mass science public experiments is not possible either. Who’s going to volunteer as a control group in the middle of this?
we have to fall back on what know much is not all that new and much no longer stacks up.
No evidence from past pandemics or this one show face covering leads to lack of risk awareness.

But work is coming showing the opposite may well be true.
The paper @Brompton Bruce has linked is a good start at showing positive social change due to face coverings. We don’t know yet if that than moves on to fixing that in behaviours even without face coverings. That is another area that need’s work. We have example‘s that show that happens.
Bare below the elbows for example has lead to reinforcing hand washing which is not what it started out as.

If you can find any credible social science that says it’s a bad idea I’d like to see it. I’ve a degree in it and even asking around i‘ve not seen any.


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## Unkraut (7 Jun 2020)

I have just looked at the UK government site, and 14 days' quarantine is going to be the requirement for anyone entering the UK as of tomorrow morning. Does anybody have any idea how long it is intended to keep this regime? It does seem a bit strange that the rest of Europe is lifting this kind of restriction and the UK has only now got round to imposing it.

We are supposed to be having a holiday in Cornwall at the beginning of September, and notwithstanding the new rule would rule this out would only consider actually doing the holiday if the infection rate is well down, which I hope it will be - and is what really matters.


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## midlife (7 Jun 2020)

Did you look at the list of exempt people?


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## marinyork (7 Jun 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I have just looked at the UK government site, and 14 days' quarantine is going to be the requirement for anyone entering the UK as of tomorrow morning. Does anybody have any idea how long it is intended to keep this regime? It does seem a bit strange that the rest of Europe is lifting this kind of restriction and the UK has only now got round to imposing it.
> 
> We are supposed to be having a holiday in Cornwall at the beginning of September, and notwithstanding the new rule would rule this out would only consider actually doing the holiday if the infection rate is well down, which I hope it will be - and is what really matters.



Your guess is as good as hours.

Legal action being taken. Being savaged in some of the papers tomorrow.


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## marinyork (7 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Did you look at the list of exempt people?



If you know Dominic Cummings, Boris, Matt Hancock or Michael Gove. Or Dominic Cummings says you are in an exempt group.


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## tom73 (7 Jun 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I have just looked at the UK government site, and 14 days' quarantine is going to be the requirement for anyone entering the UK as of tomorrow morning. Does anybody have any idea how long it is intended to keep this regime? It does seem a bit strange that the rest of Europe is lifting this kind of restriction and the UK has only now got round to imposing it.
> 
> We are supposed to be having a holiday in Cornwall at the beginning of September, and notwithstanding the new rule would rule this out would only consider actually doing the holiday if the infection rate is well down, which I hope it will be - and is what really matters.



Good question no one has a clue if it’s going to hang around or not. Much of his party don’t like it and tomorrow some are going to start a push to get it stopped. Travel companies don’t like it some like BA are boycotting government meetings about it. By the looks even the home office believe it’s not workable the law around it is not even in place. So can’t see it being around long.


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## Slick (7 Jun 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I have just looked at the UK government site, and 14 days' quarantine is going to be the requirement for anyone entering the UK as of tomorrow morning. Does anybody have any idea how long it is intended to keep this regime? It does seem a bit strange that the rest of Europe is lifting this kind of restriction and the UK has only now got round to imposing it.
> 
> We are supposed to be having a holiday in Cornwall at the beginning of September, and notwithstanding the new rule would rule this out would only consider actually doing the holiday if the infection rate is well down, which I hope it will be - and is what really matters.


It's to be reviewed every 3 weeks.


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## Slick (7 Jun 2020)

What seemed strange to me was the fact people were rushing onto flights today desperate to get back to the UK before this isolation thing came in.


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## cookiemonster (8 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The behavioural science has been done......for example there's this one that suggests masks keep people away and increase social distancing......
> 
> https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf
> 
> ...



I’ve came into this late so apologies if it’s been mentioned.

The University of Hong Kong just 2 weeks ago, released results of a study that concluded that masks reduce the risk of infection from 66% to just 16%. It just confirms what we always knew, masks play a large part in reducing virus transmission.


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## deptfordmarmoset (8 Jun 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> I’ve came into this late so apologies if it’s been mentioned.
> 
> The University of Hong Kong just 2 weeks ago, released results of a study that concluded that masks reduce the risk of infection from 66% to just 16%. It just confirms what we always knew, masks play a large part in reducing virus transmission.


Perhaps it's also worthwhile looking elsewhere for spikes in countries where masks have been in use for longer, and wearers are theoretically less risk averse, than in the UK. There have been few that I recall.


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## marinyork (8 Jun 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Perhaps it's also worthwhile looking elsewhere for spikes in countries where masks have been in use for longer, and wearers are theoretically less risk averse, than in the UK. There have been few that I recall.



Italy...


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## tom73 (8 Jun 2020)

Oh goodie a new task force for social care headed up by an "expert" with a wealth of experience. 
We have one already it's the CNO when the NHS needed bed's and field hospitals matt was full of warm words now she completely vanished.
Nurses are not just around to make the beds and deal with the bed pans. The lack of respect being shown by the government for the role of CNO say's it all. Her lack of leadership is not helping either.


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## mjr (8 Jun 2020)

Local trading standards warning about test-and-trace scam calls:

View: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3380186308699867&substory_index=0&id=234209923297537&refid=17


Does anyone know why fraud prevention seems to be left to county councils these days?


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## tom73 (8 Jun 2020)

WHO reporting outbreak is worsening globally
More than 100,000 cases had been reported in nine of the past 10 days, and that 75% of yesterday's cases came from just 10 countries - most of them in the Americas and South Asia.
Not looking good even if a number of counties are looking good numbers wise. It’s still a worrying trend.
As more open up it won’t take much to go rapidly out of control again


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## Slick (8 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> WHO reporting outbreak is worsening globally
> More than 100,000 cases had been reported in nine of the past 10 days, and that 75% of yesterday's cases came from just 10 countries - most of them in the Americas and South Asia.
> Not looking good even if a number of counties are looking good numbers wise. It’s still a worrying trend.
> As more open up it won’t take much to go rapidly out of control again


Did I not read somewhere that Brazil have given up on announcing daily figures now? I did see some pictures in the news over the weekend that may have skewed my opinion but it looks like they are really struggling to contain things over there.


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## tom73 (8 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> Did I not read somewhere that Brazil have given up on announcing daily figures now? I did see some pictures in the news over the weekend that may have skewed my opinion but it looks like they are really struggling to contain things over there.



Yes the president did not like the flack he got about about them. So just removed the data and stopped any new ones. They really are in a mess he basically treats it as joke actively encouraging everyone to ignore control measures.


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## rualexander (8 Jun 2020)

Sniffer dogs look likely to be a useful adjunct to the testing regime.

In a trial, they were able to correctly identify covid-19 infected patients by their armpit sweat odours.
Most had > 80% success rate, four dogs had 100% success rate.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.03.132134v1

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...gian-shepherd-dogs-trained-sniff-out-covid-19

Whether they can do it out in the real world is another question of course, further trials are ongoing.


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## deptfordmarmoset (9 Jun 2020)

Telling graph of the Hancock ring of confidence. See the care home lag...


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## mjr (9 Jun 2020)

What kind of perverts label every eighth day? 

I know it's nothing compared to the week-plus difference in peaks but it's still infuriating!


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## fossyant (9 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> What kind of perverts label every eighth day?
> 
> I know it's more compared to the week-plus difference in peaks but it's still infuriating!



The automatic graph gremlin in excel !


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## tom73 (9 Jun 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Telling graph of the Hancock ring of confidence. See the care home lag...
> View attachment 528605


To be fair he never mentioned the massive mine field and anti tank defences they had to get past to reach it.


----------



## marinyork (10 Jun 2020)

Zoos allowed to reopen

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52986783

Planned all along but with the number of zoos on tv saying about threatened closure you do wonder about the message management.


----------



## marinyork (10 Jun 2020)

Massive pinch of salt article saying immunity status may be unofficially be coming to the US.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ss-system-that-could-shape-the-covid-19-world


----------



## Solocle (10 Jun 2020)

A very rough estimate based on the current rate of decrease is 7000 more deaths, with the last being about 1 year away. And that's at current levels of restrictions, observance, et al, and there might have been some superspreading events lately that haven't been picked up....Oh, and it depends on R being the same across all regions, which isn't the case.


----------



## Rocky (10 Jun 2020)

Solocle said:


> View attachment 528882
> 
> A very rough estimate based on the current rate of decrease is 7000 more deaths, with the last being about 1 year away. And that's at current levels of restrictions, observance, et al, and there might have been some superspreading events lately that haven't been picked up....Oh, and it depends on R being the same across all regions, which isn't the case.


Can you add a bit more to this? First, what is this graph showing and what are its axes? What is Y? What is X? What is the significance and meaning of an exponential relationship? 

Second, where did the data come from and how was the analysis done? And.....do you think your assumptions (restrictions, observance etc) will remain the same? What about the seasonal factors (when other illnesses start up again - seasonal flu), coronavirus mutations and international travel influences?

It would be interesting to know how robust your predictions are.


----------



## Solocle (10 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Can you add a bit more to this? First, what is this graph showing and what are its axes? What is Y? What is X? What is the significance and meaning of an exponential relationship?
> 
> Second, where did the data come from and how was the analysis done? And.....do you think your assumptions (restrictions, observance etc) will remain the same? What about the seasonal factors (when other illnesses start up again - seasonal flu), coronavirus mutations and international travel influences?
> 
> It would be interesting to know how robust your predictions are.


I used the government data from yesterday's press conference. Y is deaths (all settings confirmed I believe), X is days. A bit of integration to infinity gives you total area remaining under the curve, which should correspond to deaths remaining.

And no, I don't think that the assumptions will remain the same, but it's interesting to note what the situation is should that be the case - that we're barely going to stay under 50,000 total deaths.


----------



## Rocky (10 Jun 2020)

Solocle said:


> I used the government data from yesterday's press conference. Y is deaths (all settings confirmed I believe), X is days. A bit of integration to infinity gives you total area remaining under the curve, which should correspond to deaths remaining.
> 
> And no, I don't think that the assumptions will remain the same, but it's interesting to note what the situation is should that be the case - that we're barely going to stay under 50,000 total deaths.


Thank you for the clarification.


----------



## srw (10 Jun 2020)

Solocle said:


> we're barely going to stay under 50,000 total deaths.


We're already well over that - the latest estimate I've seen is around 65,000. Your figures, and the government's headline figures, are only confirmed Coronavrius cases, not all deaths associated with the pandemic.

Your model is crude, but probably pretty appropriate. As you say, but it bears repeating, it makes the heroic* assumption that the situation in the country stays the same. I'm watching what the government is doing with horror, and am expecting the curve to keep flat or even go back up when it should be coming down. What the people banging on about the economy fail to point out is that the best way to get the economy to recover is to competely eradicate the disease so that we can get back to doing all the things we're missing.

*"Heroic" is mathematician-speak for "ludicrously unrealistic, but it's the best I can think of".


----------



## tom73 (10 Jun 2020)

Since the virus started Nursing Notes has been keeping a record of heath and social care staff that have died.
Once they have been notified by family or friends of a death but not before it has been verified.
The last update showed that 245 have sadly died due to Covid.
For the last few days it's not been updated they have now explained why.
It turn's out that organisations are now refusing to release the information.
Given the government have not been open about the true figure and that the risk of death from covid is higher for BEME. Added in the current black life matters spotlight this is doubly shocking.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (10 Jun 2020)

Reading on Facebook (soz) that a team in Valencia have come up with a breathalyzer type test that gives results in 2 minutes and costs about one Euro. 



> A team of scientists in Valencia has developed an inexpensive and fast breathalyzer-like diagnostic tool to test for Coronavirus.
> 
> The test is quick (with results in 2 minutes), simple, precise and cheap (at a cost of just 1 euro). And, there is no blood analysis or invasive swab required.
> 
> ...


----------



## Bollo (10 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Reading on Facebook (soz) that a team in Valencia have come up with a breathalyzer type test that gives results in 2 minutes and costs about one Euro.


I didn’t vote Brexit to pay for life saving tests in EUROS!!!!


----------



## mjr (10 Jun 2020)

DCLane said:


> Finally got round to watching the BBC4 programme Contagion, linked further upthread: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic


Further analysis of the BBC4 Contagion dataset has been done to estimate the effects of various anti-covid measures: http://www.uea.ac.uk/about/-/bbc-contagion-experiment-offers-covid-19-control-insight


----------



## marinyork (10 Jun 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734

Massive genetic study says coronavirus was started in the UK by at least 1,356 different cases that came over a long period of time and especially Italy, Spain and France.


----------



## RoadRider400 (10 Jun 2020)

"a team of scientists at FISABIO - the non-profit, scientific and healthcare centre in Valencia - that have come up with the device that could, withstanding trials, revolutionise the way we diagnose patients for the virus."

So its not actually proven to work yet?


----------



## marinyork (10 Jun 2020)

Boris

*



Johnson says two households will be allowed to meet up as 'support bubble' without

Click to expand...

*


> Turning to social contact, *Johnson *says he relaxed rules last Monday, so that groups of up to six could meet outdoors.
> But too many people are lonely.
> From this weekend, single adult households will be allowed to form a support bubble with one other household. That means they can act as if they are one household. They can visit each other’s homes, and don’t need to stay two metres apart.
> But they can only form a support bubble with one household.
> ...


----------



## tom73 (10 Jun 2020)

well what you know all 5 government tests have been met so full steam head with unlock. 
Sorry Borris but your not that convincing 
Support bubble good idea but likely to become a dog's dinner with miss use all over the shop.


----------



## tom73 (10 Jun 2020)

Did Borris basically just say the the cases of infection are still too high? 
But yet onward he go's with opening up and making it even worse


----------



## IaninSheffield (10 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Did Borris basically just say the the cases of infection are still too high?
> But yet onward he go's with opening up and making it even worse


'Too high' ... perhaps a (generous?) interpretation might be too high to proceed more quickly?
'Making it even worse' - (sadly) we'll only be able to judge that in due course.


----------



## marinyork (10 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Did Borris basically just say the the cases of infection are still too high?
> But yet onward he go's with opening up and making it even worse



The inaccurate regional figures for Wales and the North West are nominally pretty high. It may update on Friday for the downward trend.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Local trading standards warning about test-and-trace scam calls:
> 
> View: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3380186308699867&substory_index=0&id=234209923297537&refid=17
> 
> ...




That can’t be right as on the briefing she (deputy chief medical officer was her job I think) said the track and trace people would sound professional. No chance it could be a scammer.


----------



## gavgav (10 Jun 2020)

Boris at his bumbling worst in today’s press conference. At least the Scientists have the ability to make a concise and clear point.


----------



## marinyork (10 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> well what you know all 5 government tests have been met so full steam head with unlock.
> Sorry Borris but your not that convincing
> Support bubble good idea but likely to become a dog's dinner with miss use all over the shop.



An unforeseen consequence with the support bubble is it will make life feel worse for those that can't form one.


----------



## mjr (10 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Boris


...opens the way for mistresses to declare his household as their support bubble? Blimey, he was quick to get itchy feet wasn't he?


----------



## midlife (10 Jun 2020)

Listening to the last test, a second wave that won't overwhelm the NHS....... The NHS wasn't overwhelmed first wave with likely thousands dead every day. Just what are they going to put up with before they blink!


----------



## tom73 (10 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Listening to the last test, a second wave that won't overwhelm the NHS....... The NHS wasn't overwhelmed first wave with likely thousands dead every day. Just what are they going to put up with before they blink!


A second wave together with opening up more NHS services won't make a pretty picture. Maybe they will blink when they need to find bunk beds for all the surgical beds that in quick time will need to be found so they can move over for the extra medical ones.


----------



## marinyork (11 Jun 2020)

Guardian

Boris Johnson is considering reducing the 2-metre physical-distancing restriction to allow schools in England to reopen fully by September, the Daily Telegraph reports.

The Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, criticised the government’s efforts to get pupils back in class, using an article in the paper to claim “mismanagement” was putting at risk the welfare and education of children.

The newspaper reports that Johnson is looking at following World Health Organization advice and reducing physical distancing to 1 metre - guidance already followed by countries including France, Denmark and Singapore.

At prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, he promised to “keep that 2-metre rule under constant review”.


----------



## RoadRider400 (11 Jun 2020)

Can they just not say that they appreciate the 2m rule is not feasible all the time in schools, but wish to keep it as the expected norm in all other situations?

Edit. Looks like wave 2 possibly taking place in Iran and some US states.


----------



## mjr (11 Jun 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Can they just not say that they appreciate the 2m rule is not feasible all the time in schools, but wish to keep it as the expected norm in all other situations?


gov.uk thinks the English are too thick to cope with that. Based on what we elected, they may be correct...


----------



## marinyork (11 Jun 2020)

article speculating on why UK tracing app is delayed

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52995881


----------



## tom73 (11 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> article speculating on why UK tracing app is delayed
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52995881


All progressing nicely I see remind me again when was this all to have been up and running by ?


----------



## tom73 (11 Jun 2020)

Tanzania covid free say's president "Corona in our country has been removed by the powers of God"
Just a coincidence then that the government stopped publishing data 6 weeks ago.
He need's to make up his mind he did calm his son was healed of covid my drinking a mixture of ginger and lemonade.


----------



## marinyork (11 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> All progressing nicely I see remind me again when was this all to have been up and running by ?



It's looking like late summer/ready for autumn/winter for track and trace, app, answers on whether a vaccine may be promising, other tech solutions coming on stream.

If the centralised approach does distance calculation through RSSI or some other means better, this needs to be communicated by the government (although I'm sceptical about the claims). It's looking more like an app that works well is technically far too difficult to write in real life timescales and it'd only give you contact/handshake information, which would only be useful in a setting like a university or a pub. And even then, very walking around in the dark.


----------



## tom73 (11 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's looking like late summer/ready for autumn/winter for track and trace, app, answers on whether a vaccine may be promising, other tech solutions coming on stream.
> 
> If the centralised approach does distance calculation through RSSI or some other means better, this needs to be communicated by the government (although I'm sceptical about the claims). It's looking more like an app that works well is technically far too difficult to write in real life timescales and it'd only give you contact/handshake information, which would only be useful in a setting like a university or a pub. And even then, very walking around in the dark.


I'm not sold on the claims either so much energy has gone into this and even it ever comes off think the public have lost any remaining confidence in using it. It's making it a lot harder than it need's to be and at this rate will cost even more than the tried and tested boot leather way. It was never going to the silver bullet it was painted if anything it quickly turned into a lemon.


----------



## marinyork (11 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> I'm not sold on the claims either so much energy has gone into this and even it ever comes off think the public have lost any remaining confidence in using it. It's making it a lot harder than it need's to be and at this rate will cost even more than the tried and tested boot leather way. It was never going to the silver bullet it was painted if anything it quickly turned into a lemon.



I think having the Serco type contract tracing setup which we've had described by workers themselves doesn't help the contract tracing. Nor does the misguided rules about the second person isolating, those rules don't help. Supposedly in Singapore and other systems the second node, the person who gets contacted after a positive result from someone else gets tested and may even get tested more than once until it's 2x negative (you're free to go out) or the virus leaves their system (sensible if rather large burden on the testing regime, but necessary). 

I'm not sure the public have any confidence in any aspect of things run by politicians now. 

I'm interested in what SPI-B and others think, because if we go down to 1 metre I think that'll go out of the window then. There'll be some mild physical distancing going on after a bit and other things more or less normal. 1.5 metres it might maintain different behaviours.


----------



## marinyork (11 Jun 2020)

Guardian

*Test and trace scheme 'not gold standard' yet, but will improve, says its boss, Dido Harding*
*Dido Harding*, the Tory peer who runs the test and trace programme, has admitted that the system needs to improve.
Commenting on the first set of performance statistics for it published today (see 1.13pm), she told journalists:


> We are not at the gold standard yet that we want to be, of isolating all contacts within 48 hours of someone requesting a test. But you can absolutely see the path of how we are going to get there.


She said the programme was “fit for purpose”. But it would improve, she said.


> Just as the infection rate is coming down in the country, so is our capability to test and trace growing.
> We have got real scale - this is a national-level service that has stood up in extraordinary time.
> Is it completely perfect? No, of course it isn’t. Is there stuff that we all need to do better? Yes there is.
> But I think it’s fit for purpose as we stand today and will get better through the summer


----------



## tom73 (11 Jun 2020)

Oh that's clear as mud then, it works just fine, but it's not the best, it needs improving but is good enough get though the summer. 
How much is Harding getting paid to come up with this crap?


----------



## marinyork (11 Jun 2020)

Test and trace stats don't know what to make of. Seems that each positive test has around 5 to 6 high risk close contacts told to isolate. That seems frigging high to me. Many of us if we tested positive we would have zero high risk contacts told to self isolate, outside the household. So an average of six seems high.


----------



## tom73 (11 Jun 2020)

Please Matt don't try and tell me what my civic duty is. If you'd done your's we'd not be this mess


----------



## marinyork (11 Jun 2020)

I'd like to see a journalist asking what the test and trace numbers mean. Are the government pleased or frustrated that each positive person they contacted had an average of 5 to 6 high risk contacts.


----------



## tom73 (11 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'd like to see a journalist asking what the test and trace numbers mean. Are the government pleased or frustrated that each positive person they contacted had an average of 5 to 6 high risk contacts.



Oh came on that's a logical question and if a possible bear trap if they don't reply the a convincing answer and not look like they are telling porky's.


----------



## marinyork (11 Jun 2020)

Matt comments on what we learnt a while ago from the ONS about their studies suggesting 70% of people are asymptomatic. If that's true testing needs targeting and ramping up even further. 

Testing of high risk groups like security guards is a positive whenever that gets going.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 Jun 2020)

I just heard Hancock say R, according to SAGE models, is below 1 in all regions ''but in one region it's above one in a couple of regions.''

Thank you for that clarification!


----------



## midlife (11 Jun 2020)

If this carries on with test and trace there will be a quarter of a million people in isolation in ten days time!


----------



## randynewmanscat (11 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Tanzania covid free say's president "Corona in our country has been removed by the powers of God"
> Just a coincidence then that the government stopped publishing data 6 weeks ago.
> He need's to make up his mind he did calm his son was healed of covid my drinking a mixture of ginger and lemonade.


Ben Shaws used to do a good ginger beer, as did the othe other pop delivery company whose name escapes me now..
It could be worse, he might have been cured with bones from an albino, an albino still alive but missing a limb, I jest you not. I talked with a friend about this a few weeks ago and we agreed that if the Covid epedemic took hold in Tanzania that albinos who could should get out or lay very low.


----------



## tom73 (11 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> If this carries on with test and trace there will be a quarter of a million people in isolation in ten days time!


They did say it would be world beating


----------



## Edwardoka (12 Jun 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I just heard Hancock say R, according to SAGE models, is below 1 in all regions ''but in one region it's above one in a couple of regions.''
> 
> Thank you for that clarification!


That's some priti good clarification.


----------



## mjr (12 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Test and trace stats don't know what to make of. [...] So an average of six seems high.


1. Cyclists are more robust than average in their mental health so less likely to have folded and formed an informal solidarity bubble with other households so we find normal surprising?
2. Is some subterfuge inflating the number of close contacts:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/TheBrexitComic/status/1265935382971142144


----------



## randynewmanscat (12 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> well what you know all 5 government tests have been met so full steam head with unlock.
> Sorry Borris but your not that convincing
> Support bubble good idea but likely to become a dog's dinner with miss use all over the shop.


The last time I was entertained by a 5 tests show it was hosted by Gordon Brown as 5 tests to join the euro. His 5 test entertainment was based on not joining the euro (personally I think a wise move) and he would tweak the test criteria to make conditions "not right" for joining. 
Matts five tests look to be in inverse to Gordon's. With Matts you know there will be green ticks by the test criteria very soon.


----------



## brodiej (12 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Test and trace stats don't know what to make of. Seems that each positive test has around 5 to 6 high risk close contacts told to isolate. That seems frigging high to me. Many of us if we tested positive we would have zero high risk contacts told to self isolate, outside the household. So an average of six seems high.



I think the stats they've announced are massively dodgy as described here by Kate McCann 


View: https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1271059860990365699?s=19


Basically the track and trace team only traced 5278 contacts.

The other 22000 or so were traced by local public health teams as they were in hospitals, prisons, care homes etc

The mean number of contacts they're claiming were contacted by track and trace include these complex cases who would have loads of contacts


----------



## tom73 (12 Jun 2020)

brodiej said:


> I think the stats they've announced are massively dodgy as described here by Kate McCann
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1271059860990365699?s=19
> ...




Dodgy testing figures never next thing will be counting single gloves , floor cleaner and the like as items of PPE sent out..... Oh 
Not sure about tracing via prisons as naff all look's to be going on. They have test kit's but results hardly come back most of the time.


----------



## Levo-Lon (12 Jun 2020)

Our organisation has suffered over 400 resident deaths and 3 members of staff.

We're all having health risk assessments at the moment, I score 2 so if we have covid-19 I will be classed as higher risk , ppe upgrade and limited contract.


----------



## marinyork (12 Jun 2020)

brodiej said:


> Basically the track and trace team only traced 5278 contacts.
> 
> The other 22000 or so were traced by local public health teams as they were in hospitals, prisons, care homes etc
> 
> The mean number of contacts they're claiming were contacted by track and trace include these complex cases who would have loads of contacts



Hmmm. Well I'd love to find out what The Whitty or some of the many members of SAGE think of the true numbers low/high. We'll probably find out in the next 2-3 weeks when more data comes out and gets more scrutiny and not the initial novelty.

I think aspects of the track and trace have been better explained than whenever it was about two weeks ago when some details were hastily chucked out. I still think it's misguided that the second tier of contacts aren't tested/retested after x days. There is of course the incubation period where the PCR might come up ambiguous or negative, but it's perfectly possible the spread flows the other way and the person that rings up for a test initially after showing symptoms got it off the initial tier of high risk people the contract tracer had and them themselves may have passed it onto others (no contract tracing there). This now seems particularly silly given that we have far more testing capacity now and the ONS study seems to suggest that nightmare scenario that rumours went through months ago that the asymptotic patients might be 70%. Additionally the out in the community infections seem to be getting relatively low and a miniscule fraction of the total tests done each day. That says more testing of asymptomatic secondary testing may be feasible. The inaccurate regional infection rates with nominally relatively high new cases in Wales and the north west would suggest it's something worth doing.

If track and trace were 'worldclass' and high risk isolating contacts were tested rather than not, over some weeks it'd give you some useful information about how the virus spreads in the community. The other side the care homes is harder to sort. What we have now seems to be a service that should have been around in March or April but with the theoretical capacity of June.


----------



## marinyork (12 Jun 2020)

Latest ONS findings.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53021671


----------



## tom73 (12 Jun 2020)

SAGE regional R rate estimates have been published 
London, the Midlands, the North West and the South East is 0.8-1.0, 
North East and Yorkshire 0.7-1.0 
East of England 0.7-0.9.
They are estimates but look to back up what the experts have been trying to make clear. 
We've not not much room to get this wrong or for people to play silly beggars with rules.


----------



## midlife (12 Jun 2020)

Good job I'm wearing a mask all day at work then with the R near 1. Estimates 4-6 masks per day for each NHS worker. That's a lot of masks !


----------



## Slick (12 Jun 2020)

Scotland's r number between .6 and .7. Still not a lot of room to get much wrong but hopefully a good start.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52660050


----------



## marinyork (12 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> Scotland's r number between .6 and .7. Still not a lot of room to get much wrong but hopefully a good start.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52660050



But only 27 new confirmed cases. The question is how accurate you think that is.

Again on R, at 0.6 is good for a natural R that was widely cited as 3 but as it does not mention in that article various UK experts think is 4.


----------



## tom73 (12 Jun 2020)

Now it's official the NAO have got to work and we did have supply and distribution failing in PPE.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53028509
Findings include
Stock pile did not include any gowns or visors.
Worse case planning between March and May only face masks and clinical waste bags matched need.
Modelling only match 20% of gowns needed , 33% eye protectors and 50% aprons. Care setting it was only 15% or less of need


----------



## mjr (12 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now it's official the NOS have got to work and we did have supply and distribution failing in PPE.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53028509


NOS?


----------



## craigwend (12 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> NOS?


Noraviruses Officious Staticians


----------



## Mugshot (12 Jun 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> Our organisation has suffered over 400 resident deaths and 3 members of staff.
> 
> We're all having health risk assessments at the moment, I score 2 so if we have covid-19 I will be classed as higher risk , ppe upgrade and limited contract.


Everyone in my wifes home has been tested, staff and residents, last Saturday. My wife has had her test result, negative, but there are two staff still waiting and none of the residents have had theirs back yet because of "delays".


----------



## marinyork (12 Jun 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Everyone in my wifes home has been tested, staff and residents, last Saturday. My wife has had her test result, negative, but there are two staff still waiting and none of the residents have had theirs back yet because of "delays".



Any word on when it'll happen a 2nd time or antibody or serology tests?


----------



## Slick (12 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> But only 27 new confirmed cases. The question is how accurate you think that is.
> 
> Again on R, at 0.6 is good for a natural R that was widely cited as 3 but as it does not mention in that article various UK experts think is 4.


Lowest death total since March and from memory, only 20 odd people in intensive care. 

My hope is that it is accurate, although we do need to be doing much more testing which could raise that.

I have a bit of confidence that coming out of lockdown slower is helping though. 

What that will mean for our economy though is anyone's guess.


----------



## tom73 (12 Jun 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Everyone in my wifes home has been tested, staff and residents, last Saturday. My wife has had her test result, negative, but there are two staff still waiting and none of the residents have had theirs back yet because of "delays".


sound's about right it's all about hitting the numbers never mind if it ends up being pointless.


----------



## tom73 (12 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> NOS?


Corrected looking at CC and during work never good idea


----------



## Mugshot (12 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Any word on when it'll happen a 2nd time or antibody or serology tests?


Nothing that my wife has told me, but, I will ask when she gets in and report back.


----------



## Mugshot (12 Jun 2020)

Cold War Steve







If you're unsure what it represents he took the time to explain it;

_"The elderly and vulnerable, killed en masse (ushered to the cliff edge by the unelected bullshitting bureaucrat goblin - whilst the Prime Minister farks about playing tennis with tycoons."_


----------



## marinyork (12 Jun 2020)

Reported that SAGE says masks needed if 2m rule is relaxed

https://www.theguardian.com/society...ce-masks-if-2-metre-rule-relaxed-experts-warn


----------



## Mugshot (12 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Any word on when it'll happen a 2nd time or antibody or serology tests?


It was a one off. 

In a further update, no cases in the home, results came back today.


----------



## newfhouse (12 Jun 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Cold War Steve
> 
> View attachment 529453
> 
> ...


In happier times I’d have seen that image as a Brexit metaphor, but now it’s the actual truth


----------



## Mugshot (12 Jun 2020)

newfhouse said:


> In happier times I’d have seen that image as a Brexit metaphor, but now it’s the actual truth


Agreed.
The explanation I quoted from CWS was in response to someone that saw it as a Brexit metaphor.


----------



## mjr (13 Jun 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1271143288511307776?p=v


----------



## srw (13 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> What that will mean for our economy though is anyone's guess.


The slower we emerge the better for the economy, and not coincidentally the better for our health. 

The best possible outcome is a Coronavirus free UK. Which means we need to know absolutely everyone with the virus, and who they might have infected. That means millions of tests a week, with instant results. It also means an intensive Tracing system that works, not a fatuously "world beating" one. It also means very strict testing and quarantine of anyone coming into the country 
That will enable us all to get back to normal activity. 

The quickest way to get there is to completely shut the economy again and replace the rabble in power with someone competent.


----------



## Rocky (13 Jun 2020)

srw said:


> The slower we emerge the better for the economy, and not coincidentally the better for our health.
> 
> The best possible outcome is a Coronavirus free UK. Which means we need to know absolutely everyone with the virus, and who they might have infected. That means millions of tests a week, with instant results. It also means an intensive Tracing system that works, not a fatuously "world beating" one. It also means very strict testing and quarantine of anyone coming into the country
> That will enable us all to get back to normal activity.
> ...


I agree but in reality it's not going to happen......so plan B has to be extensive wearing of face coverings (which also isn't going to happen). so plan C is the UK economy bumping along the bottom, waiting till the NHS becomes overwhelmed in the winter and we go into panic mode again.


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## srw (13 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> plan


That's a bit optimistic.


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## Slick (13 Jun 2020)

srw said:


> The slower we emerge the better for the economy, and not coincidentally the better for our health.
> 
> The best possible outcome is a Coronavirus free UK. Which means we need to know absolutely everyone with the virus, and who they might have infected. That means millions of tests a week, with instant results. It also means an intensive Tracing system that works, not a fatuously "world beating" one. It also means very strict testing and quarantine of anyone coming into the country
> That will enable us all to get back to normal activity. She had also called for an extension to the furlough scheme, which I'm assuming gives you an insight she is not expecting to open up all businesses until after October. That's all despite our r number being reported as lower than other parts of the UK and other indicators also dropping quite markedly. Testing does still seem to be the sticking point though, as despite a promise to test care home workers weekly, some have yet to have their first test.
> ...


I also agree, and whilst the majority of people support our first minister on her vision of leading us out of lockdown, she is coming under increasing pressure from the Westminster to speed up relaxing the rules to match England.


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## Slick (13 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> I also agree, and whilst the majority of people support our first minister on her vision of leading us out of lockdown, she is coming under increasing pressure from the Westminster to speed up relaxing the rules to match England.


Lost most of my reply for some reason.


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## Rocky (13 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> Lost most of my reply for some reason.


I have that all the time.....I mean to say something but it never comes out - it's called post Covid brain (a well described medical condition).


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## Slick (13 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I have that all the time.....I mean to say something but it never comes out - it's called post Covid brain (a well described medical condition).


I typed it but it disappeared when I posted it. I'll give it another go later as I thought it was relevant.


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## tom73 (13 Jun 2020)

If I have this right 
Corona virus is a respiratory infection spread by droplets so coughing is not a good idea. In confined space's it's even worse ,add in limited access to the outside and living up close with 100's of pepole so social distancing is not really an option. Then add in all male envorment and many in high risk groups. The one thing you can really do without is adding in PAVA spray (pepper spray) which is not a great idea normally never mind in the middle of a pandemic. So what to ? Well if you're the government you just carry on and with the national roll out of the stuff. So not only will prisoners be coughing all the place staff will be when they get in the cross fire. 
Great public health move all round.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53031606


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## marinyork (13 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> I also agree, and whilst the majority of people support our first minister on her vision of leading us out of lockdown, she is coming under increasing pressure from the Westminster to speed up relaxing the rules to match England.



Ideally the rest of the UK might have kept some restrictions a couple of weeks longer, but my understanding was the decision had been made before the ONS stuff came out and the SAGE and other politicians were yikes that's quite a lot higher than we thought. 

I think the rules elsewhere are getting a bad press, with the exception of Boris entertaining the idea of getting rid of the 2 metre rule. It's not so much what the other rules are but what people are actually doing. I think lockdown fatigue set in 3-4 weeks ago where behaviour changed. Outside where the risk is believed to be a lot lower, larger and closers groups of people gathering all over. Inside where the risk is vastly higher I've no idea what's going on, maybe people still have substantially reduced and distanced contact indoor outside of their households. Unfortunately as the summer goes on people will pay more and more attention to what's going on in other countries having opened up 'fully'. 

I have more sympathy with the Welsh government because they appear to have a lot of new infections each day still and neighbouring areas of England with high cases and people wanting to travel around. All of the UK's new infection numbers are higher than you'd want it (even including the south west), but Scotland's doing all right.

Some of the Mayors in the north west of England aren't chuffed with the speed/message of easing of restrictions.


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## marinyork (13 Jun 2020)

Popular media Doctor Ellie Cannon writes about her starting participation in the Oxford vaccine trial

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ny-part-of-what-could-be-our-way-out-12005604


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## marinyork (13 Jun 2020)

Graphich from the Guardian which updates https://www.theguardian.com/world/n...oronavirus-map-us-latest-cases-state-by-state These are confirmed cases. It's worth noting for New York state which is 1,962 per 100,000 which is the highest in the US, this is only about 1/10th of actual cases based on a large scale blood studies in the state.


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## Slick (13 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Ideally the rest of the UK might have kept some restrictions a couple of weeks longer, but my understanding was the decision had been made before the ONS stuff came out and the SAGE and other politicians were yikes that's quite a lot higher than we thought.
> 
> I think the rules elsewhere are getting a bad press, with the exception of Boris entertaining the idea of getting rid of the 2 metre rule. It's not so much what the other rules are but what people are actually doing. I think lockdown fatigue set in 3-4 weeks ago where behaviour changed. Outside where the risk is believed to be a lot lower, larger and closers groups of people gathering all over. Inside where the risk is vastly higher I've no idea what's going on, maybe people still have substantially reduced and distanced contact indoor outside of their households. Unfortunately as the summer goes on people will pay more and more attention to what's going on in other countries having opened up 'fully'.
> 
> ...


Part of my earlier missing post was in that regard as all our numbers are down including the r number which is now estimated at .6 and .8 which as far as I know is amongst the lowest in the country which some might decipher as relax the rules especially as our first minister is coming under increasing pressure from Boris. I'm happy she is definitely in it for the long haul and she has also called for a further extension of the furlough scheme beyond October which tells me that not every sector will be open by then, or at the very least is a possibility. We have had failings as well though, care homes have been well discussed and questions will need answering later but testing is still woefully short and the promise of weekly testing for care home workers has not only failed to materialise, but some carers can't get a test at all. I agree about lockdown fatigue as well, I'm feeling it now myself but still very much compliant and from the very little I can tell, most still are. I am looking forward to next Thursday though and hoping it's going to be good news that allows Mrs Slick to go and visit her mum.


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## Slick (13 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> View attachment 529599
> 
> Graphich from the Guardian which updates https://www.theguardian.com/world/n...oronavirus-map-us-latest-cases-state-by-state These are confirmed cases. It's worth noting for New York state which is 1,962 per 100,000 which is the highest in the US, this is only about 1/10th of actual cases based on a large scale blood studies in the state.


If that's right, it's even worse than I thought it would ever be. The attitude over there is very difficult for me to fathom.


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## marinyork (13 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> Part of my earlier missing post was in that regard as all our numbers are down including the r number which is now estimated at .6 and .8 which as far as I know is amongst the lowest in the country which some might decipher as relax the rules especially as our first minister is coming under increasing pressure from Boris. I'm happy she is definitely in it for the long haul and she has also called for a further extension of the furlough scheme beyond October which tells me that not every sector will be open by then, or at the very least is a possibility. We have had failings as well though, care homes have been well discussed and questions will need answering later but testing is still woefully short and the promise of weekly testing for care home workers has not only failed to materialise, but some carers can't get a test at all. I agree about lockdown fatigue as well, I'm feeling it now myself but still very much compliant and from the very little I can tell, most still are. I am looking forward to next Thursday though and hoping it's going to be good news that allows Mrs Slick to go and visit her mum.



R number in Scotland and number of new infections is looking all right. 

With care home testing, I would be generally sceptical here about frequency. Politicians seemed to totally not get it that care workers if told they have to transport themselves 10-50 miles would not have the tests. So it has to be brought to them. 

For me being able to go out 2x a day for exercise made a massive deal. Seeing 1 other person outside more than 2 metres away also good, but I've seen one person a few times and a small number of other people once each. The vast majority of my walks are alone. However, this is pretty unusual the last month, I don't see many people on their own at all. 

I think the social support bubble is a good idea, however stuff I see on social media has me worried, a lot of these articles are jokey like the sex bubble problem titles, but the will reflect reality.


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## marinyork (14 Jun 2020)

2 metre rule to officially be reviewed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53038255


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## tom73 (14 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> 2 metre rule to officially be reviewed.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53038255



The main question is who's going to be pulling the strings? 
So much pushing and energy to get it changed/dropped can't helped think that if only a bit of it was used to find way's to make it practical and safe. They'd not be an issue but no blame everyone , blame the science , blame each other. Then when it go's wrong they can't us for not staying alert.


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## marinyork (14 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> The main question is who's going to be pulling the strings?
> So much pushing and energy to get it changed/dropped can't helped think that if only a bit of it was used to find way's to make it practical and safe. They'd not be an issue but no blame everyone , blame the science , blame each other. Then when it go's wrong they can't us for not staying alert.



The Mail On Sunday makes it clear who is pulling the strings. They also think it's going by 4th July.

Iain Duncan Smith has been cited for weeks by other news outlets. He'd be the last person on earth to listen to, on, well anything.


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## Yellow Fang (14 Jun 2020)

I heard on the radio the other night that the UK will have lost £300Bn through the lockdown. Without the lockdown, it was predicted that about half a million people would die of Covid-19. So that means we have spent £600,000 to save each life, or about £5000 per head of population. Maybe the outbreak would have killed more than half a million through excess deaths. The amount the NHS is prepared to spend for one QALY (Quality Adjusted Life Year) seems to range from £20,000 to £30,000 (link). So if that half million people had an average life expectancy of 20 more years, then economically the lockdown was justified. I saw an American link that estimated the worth of a QALY as between $50,000 to $150,000. In that case an average extra life expectancy of ten years would be economically justifiable. Personally, I still think the lockdown was justified, but I can also see why the government would want to avoid it if the the virus could have been controlled in any other way.


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## srw (14 Jun 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> I heard on the radio the other night that the UK will have lost £300Bn through the lockdown. Without the lockdown, it was predicted that about half a million people would die of Covid-19. So that means we have spent £600,000 to save each life, or about £5000 per head of population. Maybe the outbreak would have killed more than half a million through excess deaths. The amount the NHS is prepared to spend for one QALY (Quality Adjusted Life Year) seems to range from £20,000 to £30,000 (link). So if that half million people had an average life expectancy of 20 more years, then economically the lockdown was justified. I saw an American link that estimated the worth of a QALY as between $50,000 to $150,000. In that case an average extra life expectancy of ten years would be economically justifiable. Personally, I still think the lockdown was justified, but I can also see why the government would want to avoid it if the the virus could have been controlled in any other way.


You're making the assumption that 500,000 deaths wouldn't have affected the economy at all. Which, I think, is wrong. We saw in the week before Johnson started encouraging people to stay away from work that economic activity was slowing down in a very haphazard way as people too their own decisions. Counterfactuals are very difficult to assess, but my best guess is that quite a lot of the economic reduction would have happened without the goverment. It's also important to remember that that loss of life itself would have cost the country dearly economically - it's living people who produce the economic activity that is measured using GDP. So I think even your conservative estimates are over-estimates.

All of that ignores the human cost of a death rate 10 times bigger than we've seen. Each death devastates the lives of several more people as they mourn their loss. With half a million deaths, every one of us would have been close to one of the victims. The whole country would be in mourning.


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 Jun 2020)

Pandemic? What pandemic?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-53040827



> A 20-year-old man has died, a woman has been raped and three people have been stabbed during two illegal "quarantine raves" that attracted 6,000 people.


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## Rusty Nails (14 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Pandemic? What pandemic?
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-53040827



The self-indulgent, from Cummings, through demonstrators, ravers and beachgoers, have made a farce of the coronavirus lockdown restrictions and stuck two fingers up to those of us who have followed them.

May as well admit defeat now. I fancy a trip to see my granddaughter in London for the first time in three months. The last time I saw her she was crawling, now she's walking.


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The self-indulgent, from Cummings, through demonstrators, ravers and beachgoers, have made a farce of the coronavirus lockdown restrictions and stuck two fingers up to those of us who have followed them.
> 
> May as well admit defeat now. I fancy a trip to see my granddaughter in London for the first time in three months. The last time I saw her she was crawling, now she's walking.


My wife has been crying most days because she hasn't been able to see her 3 grandchildren. What was the point?


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## fossyant (14 Jun 2020)

R rates is going to go up in a couple of weeks after the illegal raves going on this weekend around Manchester. I hope these idiots don't have any family in the 'at risk' category.


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## DCLane (14 Jun 2020)

'Cynical' me does wonder whether more dying is the government's aim. Why?

The elderly die = less pension payments, less healthcare spend long-term, frees up housing stock.


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## srw (14 Jun 2020)

fossyant said:


> R rates is going to go up in a couple of weeks after the illegal raves going on this weekend around Manchester. I hope these idiots don't have any family in the 'at risk' category.



The latest estimate from ONS is that 1 in 1700 people in the community (i.e. not in hospitals or care homes) has the virus. That means that you can expect somewhere between none and 5 of the people attending the raves to have been infected beforehand - towards the bottom end assuming even illegal ravers are sensible enough not to go out if they've got symptoms. Afterwards, given a natural R of around 6 it'll be between none and 30-odd, or none and 100-odd if there was an unusually high contagion rate. Even if we assume that all of those people carry on otherwise as they have been - taking reasonable precautions and socially distancing outside the rave, the total number of infections is likely to be at most of the order of 200, and probably much much lower.

They are stupid, selfish idiots, but they, or a bunch of right-wing thugs in London are unlikely to make a noticeable dent in the statistics on their own. What made a difference at the start of the pandemic was a high initial infection rate and absolutely no controls over person-to-person contact anywhere.


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## srw (14 Jun 2020)

DCLane said:


> 'Cynical' me does wonder whether more dying is the government's aim. Why?
> 
> The elderly die = less pension payments, less healthcare spend long-term, frees up housing stock.


Also = lower house prices and a weaker economy - the elderly are net spenders and so are responsible for quite a bit of economic activity.

The government have shown that they are utterly incompetent in all sorts of ways. Incompetence is a far more credible explanation than conspiracy.


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## Rusty Nails (14 Jun 2020)

srw said:


> The latest estimate from ONS is that 1 in 1700 people in the community (i.e. not in hospitals or care homes) has the virus. That means that you can expect somewhere between none and 5 of the people attending the raves to have been infected beforehand - towards the bottom end assuming even illegal ravers are sensible enough not to go out if they've got symptoms. Afterwards, given a natural R of around 6 it'll be between none and 30-odd, or none and 100-odd if there was an unusually high contagion rate. Even if we assume that all of those people carry on otherwise as they have been - taking reasonable precautions and socially distancing outside the rave, the total number of infections is likely to be at most of the order of 200, and probably much much lower.
> 
> They are stupid, selfish idiots, but they, or a bunch of right-wing thugs in London are unlikely to make a noticeable dent in the statistics on their own. What made a difference at the start of the pandemic was a high initial infection rate and absolutely no controls over person-to-person contact anywhere.



Agreed. So if I were to break the regulations by travelling to London to see my family there's only an infinitesimal chance of catching/passing on the virus.

I like this breaking down of risk statistics, it will make me feel much better if I ignore the regulations.


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## marinyork (14 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Agreed. So if I were to break the regulations by travelling to London to see my family there's only an infinitesimal chance of catching/passing on the virus.
> 
> I like this breaking down of risk statistics, it will make me feel much better if I ignore the regulations.



The restrictions are in Wales because the number of infections each day per 100,000 population is very high within margin of error. The number for London is pretty low.

It's believed the infection case catching it peak was 100,000 cases per day. It's substantially smaller.

The raves were outside. There is believed to be a 10x lower risk by the UK government and 20x by a recent study. The bad news is the ONS tranches of data quoted several times suggested a terrifying 70% asymptotic symptoms as reported by others. This is in contrast to most experts citing smaller studies and saying 40 or 50%. It's not been explained and others have plenty of other theories but it could be the real reason for advising face coverings in England and mandating on public transport. It's been hinted as the reason for the flawed contact tracing rules.


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## mjr (14 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's been hinted as the reason for the flawed contact tracing rules.


Go on. You know you want to...

View: https://twitter.com/thebrexitcomic/status/1265935382971142144


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## srw (14 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I like this breaking down of risk statistics, it will make me feel much better if I ignore the regulations.





srw said:


> They are stupid, selfish idiots


This is one of those time where population risk is far, far more important than individual risk. Individually, we're not too much at risk by doing something stupid but when you multiply it up by several hundred thousand people deciding to ignore the regulations the risk figures become horrendous. And we're back where we were in early March.


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## Rusty Nails (14 Jun 2020)

srw said:


> This is one of those time where population risk is far, far more important than individual risk. Individually, we're not too much at risk by doing something stupid but when you multiply it up by several hundred thousand people deciding to ignore the regulations the risk figures become horrendous. And we're back where we were in early March.



I have kept to the restrictions because of not wanting to risk spreading any infections, not out of fear for myself, and because I understand that we are all in this together, despite the problems it causes me as an individual.

If I were to go to London to see my granddaughter, and no one else, there would be just a slightly smaller risk of spreading the virus than 2000 people raving without social distancing. How about if I go but promise not to tell anyone else? (I am not planning to do this by the way, my earlier response was deliberately facetious).

It is not just concerning one visit by me (or Dominic Cummings) against one demonstration by 5000 but about the example that such activities set that It is OK for 5000 people, or 1000 or 100 to mingle freely without any official comeback. Why not let lower league football, where they often have crowds of just a few thousand, start again?

If the example that Cummings was setting was very dangerous then so are mass, non socially distanced demonstrations, or raves, or visits to the beach. Unless they are essential the reasons behind them are irrelevant, no matter how virtuous.

It is not just about statistics.


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## mjr (14 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> If the example that Cummings was setting was very dangerous then so are mass, non socially distanced demonstrations, or raves, or visits to the beach. Unless they are essential the reasons behind them are irrelevant, no matter how virtuous.
> 
> It is not just about statistics.


The trouble is that the virus spread is basically just about the statistics (well, probabilities and expectations) and no amount of assertion will change that.

Cummings example was worse because it was longer (days on end) and indoors, and it was visiting family, which is an action that many (most?) of us wanted to do and have denied ourselves for the good of everyone.

There's not much chance of me going to an outdoor rave even after they're permitted: how about you?


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## srw (15 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Unless they are essential the reasons behind them are irrelevant, no matter how virtuous



Like I said...


srw said:


> They are stupid, selfish idiots


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## Joey Shabadoo (15 Jun 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/sheriantoinette/status/1272146291250933760


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## DCLane (15 Jun 2020)

SWMBO's seeing Covid rehab patients arriving into her rehab ward. As they're in for rehabilitation these are amongst the weakest survivors but are going to need months of work to be able to eat / move again before going home. She's gone in early today for a 28 year-old arriving so the feed pump and feeds are ready for him.


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## Joey Shabadoo (15 Jun 2020)




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## marinyork (15 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/sheriantoinette/status/1272146291250933760




Has it got shared much on social media?

The population would probably be surprised to learn that people who leave ICU for many things often take many months to get back to where they were before. If they do. Covid-19 does have a nasty and new biology and lot of things written sound like reports of SARS survivors.


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## marinyork (15 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 530101



I like that. I assume it was made in the US? 

Would be nice to have an outside on the graphic as a >= 10x lower chance of transmission outside at 2 metres is definitely one worth encouraging.


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## Joey Shabadoo (15 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> I like that. I assume it was made in the US?
> 
> Would be nice to have an outside on the graphic as a >= 10x lower chance of transmission outside at 2 metres is definitely one worth encouraging.


Yeah, American


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Batwater115/status/1272254390791962632


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## Joey Shabadoo (15 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Has it got shared much on social media?
> 
> The population would probably be surprised to learn that people who leave ICU for many things often take many months to get back to where they were before. If they do. Covid-19 does have a nasty and new biology and lot of things written sound like reports of SARS survivors.



Dunno but someone reacted with this comment on another board -



> My sisters friends husband contracted Covid. He's in his late 30's with no underlying health issues. He took a stroke while in hospital and has been going downhill since. He is being pumped full of blood thinning medication but it doesn't appear to be having any affect.


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## mjr (15 Jun 2020)

France to make schooling compulsory again from 22 June. https://www.france24.com/en/20200614-live-france-s-macron-charts-next-steps-out-of-covid-19-crisis


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## Rusty Nails (15 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> The trouble is that the virus spread is basically just about the statistics (well, probabilities and expectations) and no amount of assertion will change that.
> 
> Cummings example was worse because it was longer (days on end) and indoors, and it was visiting family, which is an action that many (most?) of us wanted to do and have denied ourselves for the good of everyone.
> 
> There's not much chance of me going to an outdoor rave even after they're permitted: how about you?



If I was 40 years younger.... Like millions of people are.


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## SpokeyDokey (15 Jun 2020)

Live shop reopening updates:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-53028207


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## Joey Shabadoo (15 Jun 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Live shop reopening updates:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-53028207



Just how ignorant do you have to be to stand in a queue where 80% of people are wearing masks and not think "Hmmm"?


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## mjr (15 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Just how ignorant do you have to be to stand in a queue where 80% of people are wearing masks and not think "Hmmm"?


Not at all. You just have to have severe asthma. How about a bit less mask vigilantism?


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## roubaixtuesday (15 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Just how ignorant do you have to be to stand in a queue where 80% of people are wearing masks and not think "Hmmm"?



I think the masks thing is a bit like the helmet thing (ducks for cover, braces for impact).

Factually, they might be of some use in certain circumstances, but they're unlikely to make a significant difference overall. Outside in a queue, for instance.

Psychologically, (some) people love having a reason to feel superior to others, and telling them they should be wearing masks is a nice easy one.


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## Unkraut (15 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think the masks thing is a bit like the helmet thing (ducks for cover, braces for impact).









roubaixtuesday said:


> Factually, they might be of some use in certain circumstances, but they're unlikely to make a significant difference overall.


I suspect that pragmatically they don't do very much to prevent the spread of the virus, but psychologically they may stop people becoming complacent and acting as though it is all over (to coin a phrase). A good visual reminder to keep being careful.


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## roubaixtuesday (15 Jun 2020)

Unkraut said:


> but psychologically they may stop people becoming complacent and acting as though it is all over (to coin a phrase). A good visual reminder to keep being careful



This is possible, but so is the antithesis: that wearing masks will make people engage in riskier behaviour, falsely believing the mask protects them. See BLM demos for an excellent example.


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## srw (15 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Would be nice to have an outside on the graphic as a >= 10x lower chance of transmission outside at 2 metres is definitely one worth encouraging.


No less a figure than David Spiegelhalter is querying whether that conclusion is appropriate.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and...hat-recommends-2m-social-distancing-1.4279407


(The replies to that are interesting too).


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## Joey Shabadoo (15 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Not at all. You just have to have severe asthma. How about a bit less mask vigilantism?


I think if I had severe asthma, standing in queues with lots of people not wearing masks in the middle of an airborne virus pandemic would be a silly thing to do.


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## Joey Shabadoo (15 Jun 2020)

The problem with all these people saying "The chances of catching the virus with/without mask < or > 2m apart is X%" is it's all based on one point of contact - one person coming into contact with one other person. I posted a video showing the queues inside the Metrocentre to get into one shop. Hundreds of people, possibly thousands. How's that 1% infection risk looking when you come into contact with 1000 people?


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## roubaixtuesday (15 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The problem with all these people saying "The chances of catching the virus with/without mask < or > 2m apart is X%" is it's all based on one point of contact - one person coming into contact with one other person. I posted a video showing the queues inside the Metrocentre to get into one shop. Hundreds of people, possibly thousands. How's that 1% infection risk looking when you come into contact with 1000 people?



I agree that being in crowds of people is a Bad Idea.

I'm sceptical that wearing a mask of the sort generally used makes a significant difference to that risk, particularly outdoors. Actual scientific evaluation of mask efficacy appears equivocal. Leaving when seeing there's a farking mahoosive queue would seem to be a far more impactful intervention - and would be my reaction regardless of COVID.


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## tom73 (15 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> I like that. I assume it was made in the US?
> 
> Would be nice to have an outside on the graphic as a >= 10x lower chance of transmission outside at 2 metres is definitely one worth encouraging.


That would be too simple. Most the public health message has been too unclear , too open to well if you can, do you think you could 
and too mixed. Face covering is the latest one and they can't get that right. It started well enough but just is not cutting though it's not that complicated but boy is it starting to be. 
Even on a local level it's been all over the place. As things open up my council still has lost the plot. We now have sign's all over the place with slogans and helpful tips for safe shopping. Which clearly have come for the Janet and John book of Covid. 
The sats are still over the place , the R rate is still mostly at the wrong end of being open to a few wrong runs. The testing is still not up to being spot on. But the balance between following the money and keeping everyone safe is quickly moving the wrong way.


----------



## matticus (15 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> " _but psychologically they may stop people becoming complacent and acting as though it is all over (to coin a phrase). A good visual reminder to keep being careful _"
> 
> This is possible, but so is the antithesis: that wearing masks will make people engage in riskier behaviour, falsely believing the mask protects them. See BLM demos for an excellent example.


Speaking just IMO, the demos did not show this - both the London demos, and the Bristol statue incident featured about as many people with their mouths uncovered (often with masks below their chin!) as people with masks in place.

I don't know why; my gut feeling based on my own behaviour around colleagues, and around shoppers, is that masks still look so odd, they remind me of the invisible danger around us.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (15 Jun 2020)

matticus said:


> Speaking just IMO, the demos did not show this - both the London demos, and the Bristol statue incident featured about as many people with their mouths uncovered (often with masks below their chin!) as people with masks in place.
> 
> I don't know why; my gut feeling based on my own behaviour around colleagues, and around shoppers, is that masks still look so odd, they remind me of the invisible danger around us.


I would say that - a reminder that things aren't normal.


----------



## Rezillo (15 Jun 2020)

srw said:


> (The replies to that are interesting too).



The replies are treating it as simple particle dispersal without considering at least two other factors:

1. The droplets are so small that they rapidly evaporate, becoming lighter as they travel away from the source

2. As the droplets dry out, they may travel further but become less infective as the virus they contain inactivates. I can't quote any papers - just earlier reports that while it was possible to recover viral rna right across test areas, it appeared to be non-viable.

Anyway, it makes the maths of dispersal distance versus infectivity rather complicated and that's before you start taking into account random air currents in real-world situations. I'm surprised that there are any distancing claims to be made to fractions of a metre differences beyond 'don't stand close to each other' but perhaps they have to be seen to quantify it in some way to show what 'close' is.


----------



## mjr (15 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The problem with all these people saying "The chances of catching the virus with/without mask < or > 2m apart is X%" is it's all based on one point of contact - one person coming into contact with one other person. I posted a video showing the queues inside the Metrocentre to get into one shop. Hundreds of people, possibly thousands. How's that 1% infection risk looking when you come into contact with 1000 people?


It doesn't make it more infectious. It just increases the chance that there are carrier(s) in the air with you. You still inhale the same volume of air. It's a mixed change.

I prefer to avoid indoor shopping malls at the moment and minimise the time spent in a shop on any one day, ideally to not much more than 15 minutes.


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## mjr (15 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> As things open up my council still has lost the plot. We now have sign's all over the place with slogans and helpful tips for safe shopping. Which clearly have come for the Janet and John book of Covid.


Pics or I don't believe this is on their wall!







(From https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~jac22/The_Ladybird_Book_of_COVID-19.pdf )


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## midlife (15 Jun 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53057199

Crikey, like a rugby scrum...


----------



## Julia9054 (15 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53057199
> 
> Crikey, like a rugby scrum...


Blimey! I don't mind admitting that I like the occasional mooch round the shops but those crowds would have me wanting to punch people even in normal times


----------



## Mr Whyte (15 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53057199
> 
> Crikey, like a rugby scrum...




It was like that for some of our shops today, I stayed well away from it all.


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## Slick (15 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53057199
> 
> Crikey, like a rugby scrum...


Saw it on the news, unbelievable.


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## midlife (15 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> Saw it on the news, unbelievable.



Yup, I work for two NHS trusts who are probably spending millions turning lecture theatres into waiting rooms, walling off hundreds of rooms, turning offices into changing areas, and 4-6 masks a day for staff.... The list is endless. And the public are doing what they like! 

Words fail me.


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## Slick (15 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Yup, I work for two NHS trusts who are probably spending millions turning lecture theatres into waiting rooms, walling off hundreds of rooms, turning offices into changing areas, and 4-6 masks a day for staff.... The list is endless. And the public are doing what they like!
> 
> Words fail me.


I'm doing similar in a college environment and wondered why bother. Your much more likely to contract that virus with how you spend your leisure time than in a well controlled work environment.


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## srw (16 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Words fail me


Really? Where are you more likely to encounter a sick, infectious person - a hospital or a shopping centre?

The nerks in Bicester were selfish, thoughtless idiots but that doesn't invalidate what the NHS is doing.


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## tom73 (16 Jun 2020)

Equally the same applies to encountering a fully well infectious person. The NHS has and will have to for some time get use to working in both confirmed and no confirmed covid environments. The only way to do that is what many areas have done and looked for new way to deliver services and the other is to treat everyone as possible covid carrier. 
Meanwhile the public are running like mad to the promised land of "it's all over" and move on which will "invalidate" the hard work done by health services which for most part happens well away from hospitals that have little room for the errors of others.


----------



## mjr (16 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Meanwhile the public are running like mad to the promised land of "it's all over" and move on which will "invalidate" the hard work done by health services which for most part happens well away from hospitals that have little room for the errors of others.


Boris has said 2m is no longer necessary. I read it on facebook. Anyone want to bet whether it's a simple misunderstanding gone viral or something that's had "нелр"?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 Jun 2020)

> Twelve weeks after his first Covid-19 symptoms, 28-year-old Callum O'Dwyer is still not better.
> 
> A fit and healthy young man, he had no underlying health conditions before he caught the virus.
> 
> ...



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-53056785

Not good


----------



## tom73 (16 Jun 2020)

Viral fatigue is a growing area of concern as more cases come to light and is one of the many things still to learn about the virus. 
It's not just a handful either few items on the radio the past few week's some of the cases are 80-90 days and still have problems. 
Only this morning a new trial is starting locally to look at exercise as a way to help with recovery.


----------



## tom73 (16 Jun 2020)

Look's like the 1st effective covid life saving treatment has been found it's cheep and a proven drug. 
Results show it cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators and deaths by a fifth for those on oxygen
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (16 Jun 2020)

So is Dexamethasone going to make a difference?


----------



## Rocky (16 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> So is Dexamethasone going to make a difference?


For a few very sick people, perhaps......but IMO we still need (i) a vaccine (ii) some other prophylactic drug (iii) something to help those people admitted to hospital but not yet needing CPAP oxygen or a ventilator.

It is good news - as it's the first treatment that has been shown to have a real effect for some patients.


----------



## DaveReading (16 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> So is Dexamethasone going to make a difference?



Well the BBC think so. 

They have just asserted on the 6pm news that "thousands of lives" could have been saved had the drug been deployed from the start of the pandemic.


----------



## Rocky (16 Jun 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Well the BBC think so.
> 
> They have just asserted on the 6pm news that "thousands of lives" could have been saved had the drug been deployed from the start of the pandemic.


Mmmmmmm I'm not sure about that claim.......


----------



## Unkraut (16 Jun 2020)

DaveReading said:


> They have just asserted on the 6pm news that "thousands of lives" could have been saved had the drug been deployed from the start of the pandemic.


Strikes me as a rather insensitive thing to say, as what is past is past, and this is a new discovery only relevant for the future. Some who have lost relatives may go through the agony of 'what if' this had been given, when at the time no-one knew of the benefits or it would have been.


----------



## tom73 (16 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Mmmmmmm I'm not sure about that claim.......


The one headed up the study in an interview put the figure at 5000 based on the results. It was a sort of out out the blue question and the reply was on of them that in a 5 minute interview get's taken up and ran with. I've not seen the paper so not sure if or how they make that claim. 
It's not the magic bullet but if you put the life saved to one side. As we know the effects of a ventilator take a lot of time, money and staff to fix. So any saving on that front is welcome given we are going to need all the extra capacity we can get.


----------



## Tanis8472 (16 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Look's like the 1st effective covid life saving treatment has been found it's cheep and a proven drug.
> Results show it cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators and deaths by a fifth for those on oxygen
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281





> Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there was a genuine case to celebrate "a remarkable British scientific achievement", adding: "We have taken steps to ensure we have enough supplies, even in the event of a second peak."



Typical of that twat.


----------



## pawl (16 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53057199
> 
> Crikey, like a rugby scrum...





Seeing that mob makes me wonder how we have managed to reach are current situation.


----------



## midlife (16 Jun 2020)

Giving steroids during a viral infection is counter intuitive and not what I was taught. Usually the steroid switches off your immune response and the virus runs wild. I guess if you have no immune response then the steroid reduces collateral damage.


----------



## Rocky (16 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Giving steroids during a viral infection is counter intuitive and not what I was taught. Usually the steroid switches off your immune response and the virus runs wild. I guess if you have no immune response then the steroid reduces collateral damage.


Interesting.....I've seen the protocols for a number of the clinical trials of repurposed drugs for Covid. Many seem to have strange side-effects such as causing breathing problems and clot formation. At first sight, not what you would want, given the mechanism of Covid infection in the lungs. However, it appears that one of the problems with Covid is that it causes an oxygen shunt in the blood vessels to the lungs - thereby stopping the blood getting re-oxygenated. It is this issue that the trial drugs seem to be targeting. The hope is that the benefit from these drugs will outweigh the negative side effects, such as you are describing.


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## tom73 (16 Jun 2020)

Sounds odd it’s true , it looks to be all part of the multi complex game Covid play’s. One of the main ones the massive inflammation it brings and in turn the massive cytokine storms. The thinking is it stops the latter.


----------



## DCLane (16 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53057199
> 
> Crikey, like a rugby scrum...



What stuns me about those photos, as others at NikeTown in London and elsewhere, is that none of them engaged their brain to think "this is too busy, let's go elsewhere or come back later" 

AKA they're stupid and, if they die, I'm afraid I have no sympathy.


----------



## kingrollo (16 Jun 2020)

What a terrible indictment of society that the highlight of considerable number of lives is:-

A big Mac

A t shirt with a logo from a multinational - that pays slave labour wages across the world....

I don't want to tell people how to live - but Jesus make something of you're given years !!


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Jun 2020)

DCLane said:


> What stuns me about those photos, as others at NikeTown in London and elsewhere, is that none of them engaged their brain to think "this is too busy, let's go elsewhere or come back later"
> 
> AKA they're stupid and, if they die, I'm afraid I have no sympathy.



Crazy scenes and makes you realise that some people’s lives revolve around completely different things.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Jun 2020)

Some sage words on the public's coronavirus behaviour. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-public-for-covid-19-spread-says-uk-scientist

It does, however, treat people as needing effective leadership, something we've all been doing without for a good while.


----------



## Salty seadog (17 Jun 2020)

Crikey, I'm watching the daily briefing and wondering how much barrel is left.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (17 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Crikey, I'm watching the daily briefing and wondering how much barrel is left.



Deaths declining, but awfully slowly. 

New cases looks worryingly flat.

It really doesn't look good. We should be driving these down, not relaxing things IMO.


----------



## Salty seadog (17 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Deaths declining, but awfully slowly.
> 
> New cases looks worryingly flat.
> 
> It really doesn't look good. We should be driving these down, not relaxing things IMO.



The way its going you or I could be presenting the briefing soon. Maybe just in our pants.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Jun 2020)

So, anyway, this world-beating app, we might be able to download it by Christmas. If all goes well....

Health Minister Lord Bethell asked about the contact tracing app at 
@CommonsSTC
"We're seeking to get something going before the winter, but it isn't the priority at the moment" Confirms it is still the government's intention to introduce it


----------



## midlife (17 Jun 2020)

On a slightly different note, was chatting to some hospital colleagues today and they say admissions with the typical COVID barking cough have essentially stopped and its presenting as quite poorly people with gastro intestinal disease and vascular problems.... 

They have been antibody testing staff here as well, they won't release the stats and the results are confidential but surprised at the number of positives in close colleagues before lockdown, I may well be positive too (testing for our department soon)


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> They have been antibody testing staff here as well, they won't release the stats and the results are confidential but surprised at the number of positives in close colleagues before lockdown, I may well be positive too (testing for our department soon)


Can you give us a ballpark percentage?


----------



## Once a Wheeler (17 Jun 2020)

There is no point at all in being worried but everyone should be concerned. Interestingly, covid-19 has some similarities with the fourteenth century black death which very few intermediate epidemics have shared. In particular, there is no vaccine and there may be very little long-term acquired immunity. History tells us that from about 1438 there were successive resurgences of the black death at roughly ten-year intervals for approximately a century. Although hygiene and living conditions are very different now, the history does make me think that the recovery will not be described by a V-shaped graph, let alone an L-shaped one, but rather by an upper-case W followed by a series of lower-case ws: Wwww. A vaccine of course would change the game and bring it into line with MMR and other afflictions such as polio. Vigilance is the order of the day; and, of course, treatments such as dexamethasone take the sting out of severe cases. Additional treatments look likely: so watch, hope and take your precautions. Good health to all.


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## marinyork (17 Jun 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Can you give us a ballpark percentage?



I would imagine 20 to 30% based on other workplaces.


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## midlife (17 Jun 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Can you give us a ballpark percentage?



Individuals are given a slip of paper with the result but not sure if any other info is going to be released. Marinyork probably somewhere near though.


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## Inertia (17 Jun 2020)

How hard can it be to follow the rules? 


View: https://twitter.com/scotthortop/status/1273210454438010881


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## mjr (17 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> The way its going you or I could be presenting the briefing soon. Maybe just in our pants.


Sneak preview of tomorrow's briefing:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyKXSYgvfPM


----------



## IaninSheffield (17 Jun 2020)

Covid briefing, Kiwi-style.
When asked by a journalist about her reaction on learning that NZ had become Covid-free*, PM Ardern's response.

View: https://twitter.com/Kiwi_things/status/1269849214281895936


It's not what she said, but the humanity of the response that I find so compelling ... and the (apparent) positive working relationship with her scientific advisor.
And here, back in the UK, we have ...?

*At the time, although no longer of course (UK visitors unfortunately)


----------



## Salty seadog (17 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Sneak preview of tomorrow's briefing:
> 
> View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyKXSYgvfPM




Are you doing it or me? I'm free tomorrow but not Friday.


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## Salty seadog (17 Jun 2020)

We're going to have to work together on this one... 


View: https://youtu.be/6NkxI7_Z1VA


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## marinyork (18 Jun 2020)

The darker side of furlough, sadly not surprising.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53080428


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## kingrollo (18 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> The darker side of furlough, sadly not surprising.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53080428



bigger problem/fraud I would have thought would have been self employed white van - takes furlough pay - but then does jobs on QT.


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## Adam4868 (18 Jun 2020)

kingrollo said:


> bigger problem/fraud I would have thought would have been self employed white van - takes furlough pay - but then does jobs on QT.


What's your problem with self employed ? Do you honestly think they've had it good 🙄 For every one of your so called white van fraudsters how many fat cat bosses have been abusing the scheme


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## kingrollo (18 Jun 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> What's your problem with self employed ? Do you honestly think they've had it good 🙄 For every one of your so called white van fraudsters how many fat cat bosses have been abusing the scheme



Yes - but who is more likely to get caught ? 

White van man doing a bit a plumbing is going to go under the radar more easily than a company claiming furlough - yet asking its employees to come in/WFH


----------



## mjr (18 Jun 2020)

France's centralised app criticised, Germany's app launches https://www.france24.com/en/2020061...g-app-hard-to-link-to-others-eu-official-says

Germany's app being developed on github with real live development work pushed to publication, and the server also open-source/free-software, not throw-it-over-the-wall open-source-in-name-only like the NHSuX one: https://github.com/corona-warn-app

https://www.france24.com/fr/20200617-stopcovid-chronique-d-un-échec-annoncé headlines "StopCovid, Timeline of a Predictable Fail":

BEGIN TRANSLATION FOR PURPOSE OF DISCUSSION:
Two weeks after its launch, the French contact-tracing[sic] app StopCovid multiplies its snags. From unpromising beginnings which seem to confirm the beliefs of experts on the effectiveness of this "cockerel solution" for fighting against the spread of Covid-19.

A low number of downloads and criticism from the European Commission against an app accused, amongst other things, of collecting more personal data than necessary. And now throw in more: two weeks after its launch, StopCovid, the official French contact-tracing app to contain the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, is far from becoming ubiquitous.

According to the official government figures, there were only 1.7 million installations. After a more-than-fair start - 600k downloads on the first day - the speed of installations slowed: in the last five days, only 200k French people have broken for StopCovid, states Francetvinfo.

It's very far from the preannouncements of researchers who estimate that it would need a much larger adoption (from about 20% of the population) for StopCovid to start having an effect.

The Problem of a "Cockerel Solution"

The European Commission also raises scepticism. It criticised, Wednesday, the lack of interoperability of the French app with those developed by 16 other EU countries. "It's the problem of having a cockerel solution, while in parallel helping with reopening European borders. If the apps don't talk to each other, a French person who travels abroad cannot know if they were in contact with an infected person," underlines Nadège Martin, specialist in Intellectual Property Law and associate advocate at Norton Rose Fulbright, contacted by France 24.

The defenders of personal data protection are also not overflowing with enthusiasm. Gaëtan Leurent, a cryptography specialist who works for INRIA (the institute which, amongst other things, is in charge of the StopCovid project), has discovered that the app collects more information than was announced at the start, reported Mediapart on Monday 15 June. In theory, the app stores only the data about two people who have installed StopCovid on their telephone who are in contact less than 1 metre apart for at least 15 minutes. In reality, it is gathering all information of all people who have the app, without regard of the time spent close together, notes Mediapart. The government has recognised that this tracing is much more massive than forseen, and taken refuge behind a debatable technical explanation.

I just realized that #StopCovid seems to send all contacts to the server, even passing on the other side of the street. This would contradict the official decree (contacts of 15min at 1m), and violate data minimization principle required by @CNIL and #GDPR https://gitlab.inria.fr/stopcovid19/stopcovid-android/-/issues/43 - Gaëtan Leurent (@cryptosaurus6) June 12, 2020

These multiple snags give the impression of a "timeline of an announced failure", affirms Constantin Pavléas, director of Pavléas law practice and specialist in new technology law, contacted by France 24. For him, it could be difficult to be otherwise because of initial choices. "France has taken for its model the app developed by Singapore, although this hasn't been shown effective for preventing the spread," he notes. The authorities of the Asian city-state have effectively recognised, at the end of April, that their application hasn't slowed Covid-19, even though 20% of Singaporians had downloaded it.

Political Errors

Constantin Pavléas also underlines that the European Commission is justified in criticising France. "We've failed massively. It's necessary to do everything to build a digital solution on the European level in order to counteract a virus that doesn't know any borders," assents Constantin Pavléas. This would be the same even for the "original pitch of the French plan," estimates Frans Imbert-Vier, CEO of Ubcom, a Swiss law practice specialising in digital security, contacted by France 24.

This choice of being a lone cowboy on the European scene illustrates, for him, the root of the problem of StopCovid which is political. "The government has preferred to stay faithful to digital sovereignty in developing a national solution, rather than being pragmatic in adopting the same type of app as its European neighbours, with the goal of facing the health threat with allies," continues Frans Imber-Viert.

The other countries, at the cue of Germany, have, in effect, preferred to develop their solution around the standards for digital tracing set by Google and Apple, so that their apps can be easily used on the vast majority of smartphones. France, as usual, hasn't wanted to let these American wolves into the henhouse of French digital health.

If the French don't precipitate towards StopCovid, it will be more because of political errors. "The government has proved that an absence of transparency about the use of data by the app loses the confidence of the population," assures Frans Imbert-Vier. Such as the claim of the length of data retention. "The government continues not to want to explain why the collected data is kept for three months, even though the doctor's division of the World Health Organisation assures that this data isn't useful for health after 21 days," emphasises this expert.

What to do with StopCovid?

The Mediapart revelations go in the same way. "Why not have said spontaneously that StopCovid collected more data than initially forseen? This lack of transparency could seem worrying for an app which touches our fundamental liberties, in that it allows knowledge of where you are, when and with whom," underlines Frans Imbert-Vier.

The hare set running by Mediapart puts everything in doubt about even the effectiveness of StopCovid. "For a contact tracing app to be useful, it's necessary for the collected data to all be quality. But if StopCovid sends data on each person seen [no matter what duration of contact], the database loses pertinence for fighting Covid-19," explains advocate Nadège Martin.

The first two weeks of existence have confirmed the beliefs about the effectiveness of StopCovid in its current state, according to the three experts interviewed. But they are not in agreement on what to do with the baby. For Frans Imbert-Vier, "it's necessary to start over" because the faults inherent to the French solution, notably the incompatibility with other European apps, render it irreparable. Constantin Pavléas also estimates that it's necessary to turn the page on this app. But he goes further, and calls for the creation of a true "Europe of health, that includes digital strategy, and would have a decision-making power to impose the type of app at EU level."

Less pessimistic, Nadège Martin judges that it's still a bit early to bury StopCovid completely. "There was a problem of timing. The application was launched at a moment where the perception of danger linked to coronavirus had reduced, which contributed to a weak number of downloads," she notes. This advocat estimates that if the belief of a second wave takes form, interest in the app could restart. It's only at that moment that we can truly make an assessment of the effectiveness of StopCovid. While we wait, she judges that it would be better to improve what exists already, rather than reinvent the wheel. Above all, "what would replace this app? Nothing says only an alternative would be better accepted by the French," she estimates.

But all assess that there is urgency. If StopCovid has arrived badly hamstrung and too late to help during the first wave, this failures could allow it to be better prepared for an eventual second wave of the epidemic which, with the resurgence of infections in China, has gained credibility.
END TRANSLATION

I think everything about StopCovid above applies to NHSX but more so, such as IIRC the NHSX data retention is 20 years not 3 months!


----------



## DaveReading (18 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> The defenders of personal data protection are also not unenthusiastic.



The French translates as they are "... not overflowing with enthusiasm", which is rather less of an endorsement.


----------



## mjr (18 Jun 2020)

DaveReading said:


> The French translates as they are "... not overflowing with enthusiasm", which is rather less of an endorsement.


Indeed! I seem to have gained an "un" there! Sorry, will fix.


----------



## Rocky (18 Jun 2020)

.....and guess what, the UK has abandoned the NHSX centralised app in favour of Apple/Google. How much of our money was wasted in this show of British exceptionalism? Enough to paint a plane?


----------



## mjr (18 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> .....and guess what, the UK has abandoned the NHSX centralised app in favour of Apple/Google. How much of our money was wasted in this show of British exceptionalism? Enough to paint a plane?


Who has Simon Thompson replaced? Dido "data-in/data-out" Harding?


----------



## Rocky (18 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Who has Simon Thompson replaced? Dido "data-in/data-out" Harding?


This from yesterday's FT:

_Separately, government officials confirmed that the two people who have been leading the app’s development will be stepping back from it. Matthew Gould, chief executive of the health service innovation arm NHSX, and Geraint Lewis, who heads the app team at NHSX, are to return to their day-to-day jobs. Meanwhile a new manager, Simon Thompson — a former Apple executive who is currently chief product manager at Ocado — will take responsibility for the app. Mr Thompson has been brought in by Dido Harding, who runs the government’s test and trace programme. However, the timing of the moves, which were first reported by the BBC, are not clear._


----------



## Inertia (18 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> .....and guess what, the UK has abandoned the NHSX centralised app in favour of Apple/Google. How much of our money was wasted in this show of British exceptionalism? Enough to paint a plane?


Wasn’t this the project Doms mate says he could do? Classic Dom.


----------



## Rocky (18 Jun 2020)

Inertia said:


> Want this the project Doms mate says he could do? Classic Dom.


I think Palantir is still going to get its sticky hands on our data, if we have the misfortune to get sick......

https://tech.newstatesman.com/coronavirus/palantir-covid19-datastore-coronavirus


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## tom73 (18 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> .....and guess what, the UK has abandoned the NHSX centralised app in favour of Apple/Google. How much of our money was wasted in this show of British exceptionalism? Enough to paint a plane?


But only if Harding "decides it has been made fit for purpose" So she know's more than the two biggest technology and software companies. Remind me what's she got in way of anything even close to the the skills, knowledge , or even basic experience to know a fig about anything?
Yesterday she said from the IOW trail they found out that if a human asks them to isolate they are more likely to do. Than if a faceless app tells them. Well who'd have thought that ? Before all this latest mess up a quarter of the people traced and contacted could not be found. It's just unraveling and we still open up and risk everything. All we need now is a data leak and her work is complete.


----------



## tom73 (18 Jun 2020)

So all the mess up with the NHSX app is all down to Apple. We started working on one before Apple/google did once we found out we stated testing with both. Matt says well sorry mate but every thing you said is total lies. The NHSX app was long dead duck long before it even got off paper. Before you went live it was made clear it did not met Apple standard but no off you went blindly onwards with tigers in your ears. 
It sounds like the report that NHSX is dead is wrong they want both the "best bits" of NHSX and best bits of Apple/google app and make yet anther one. No date is given as to when at this rate a vaccine may have come before the app. 

In other news Matt reports who get's the vaccine will be "led by the science" 
Front-line health and social care working , 50+ and heart and kidney disease are to get the vaccine 1st once we get one say's Matt.


----------



## tom73 (18 Jun 2020)

So we are told we are getting more out brakes but it's fine as deaths are down and hospital cases are down. 
Right that's not how this works one is not a trade off for the other it shows that this are starting to come unstuck.


----------



## tom73 (18 Jun 2020)

If anyone still believes this virus only attacks the old. Today’s reported deaths include a 13 day old baby. 
Before you say anything they had no underlying conditions. 
RIP little one.


----------



## midlife (18 Jun 2020)

Had lecture / update today on testing from the infection and virology leads today. Lot of it was technical but underlined the dangerous nature of SARS CoV 2 as a very successful pathogen which is still out there. Needs hunting down with testing, testing, testing carried out by trained swab people with fast turn around. 

The Roche test we use was evaluated on about 2000 very old stored blood samples (way pre covid) to test for false positives. After 29 positive tests on known people who have had COVID was licensed and bought by the UK. Background positive tests around here generally 10% and in London hospital workers 47% so all the lecturers would say was they expect the hospital staff to be between 10% and 47%.


----------



## RoadRider400 (18 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> If anyone still believes this virus only attacks the old. Today’s reported deaths include a 13 day old baby.
> Before you say anything they had no underlying conditions.
> RIP little one.



""The cause of death is not yet known. Tests have confirmed that the child had Covid-19, but it isn't yet clear if it was a contributing factor."

Little one could well have been one of the 80% that would not even have shown symptoms. You seem very keen to jump to conclusions.

RIP to the little mite anyhow.


----------



## midlife (18 Jun 2020)

Looks like there's a cluster in Leicester. . The lecturer today went on about nosicomal infections, I guess that's why hospitals are doing what they are doing.


----------



## mjr (19 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Looks like there's a cluster in Leicester. . The lecturer today went on about nosicomal infections, I guess that's why hospitals are doing what they are doing.


Nosocomial but it's still a dick word. "Hospital-acquired" is only longer written down and much clearer to the public.


----------



## midlife (19 Jun 2020)

I'm obviously a dick.....


----------



## perplexed (19 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> But only if Harding "decides it has been made fit for purpose" So she know's more than the two biggest technology and software companies. *Remind me what's she got in* way of anything even close to the the skills, knowledge , or even basic experience to know a fig about anything?
> Yesterday she said from the IOW trail they found out that if a human asks them to isolate they are more likely to do. Than if a faceless app tells them. Well who'd have thought that ? Before all this latest mess up a quarter of the people traced and contacted could not be found. It's just unraveling and we still open up and risk everything. All we need now is a data leak and her work is complete.



A Conservative MP for a husband is surely just coincidental...


By way of another coincidence, she's also apparently on the board of the Jockey Club.

Edit to add: She's a Conservative peer too.


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Jun 2020)

perplexed said:


> A Conservative MP for a husband is surely just coincidental...
> 
> 
> By way of another coincidence, she's also apparently on the board of the jockey club.



Does she not also have links to 
Cummings?


----------



## perplexed (19 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Does she not also have links to
> Cummings?



I'm not sure, but it wouldn't be a surprise.


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Jun 2020)

perplexed said:


> I'm not sure, but it wouldn't be a surprise.



Just had a quick Google and I can't find anything. I must have mis-remembered something. That's the highest thing I can say about Dom.


----------



## Rocky (19 Jun 2020)




----------



## perplexed (19 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Just had a quick Google and I can't find anything. I must have mis-remembered something. That's the highest thing I can say about Dom.



Me too. They must have come across each other in some form or capacity though, it'd be odd if they hadn't.


----------



## Rocky (19 Jun 2020)

Yes.....there is a link to Dom and his mates


----------



## tom73 (19 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> View attachment 530897


 It will go down hill once it's privatised.


----------



## Yellow Fang (19 Jun 2020)

I don't understand why this app was so difficult? How complex is it? Doesn't all it do is detect when another phone is nearby and send the data back somewhere? I heard it's draining on power, because blue tooth has to be on all the time. I also heard it's iphones they can't get it to work on, which does not surprise me. Apple are very much more controlling of the software that runs on their products.


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> It will go down hill once it's privatised.



No no no, you don't privatise something this important to the nation ........ 

Sorry, slipped off there. 

Never trust a Tory.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Jun 2020)

As a wee snippet, my company supplies the largest coffin manufacturer in the UK. I've been watching their consumption figures with a horrified fascination over the last few months as they went through a year's supply between March and May. The good news is they're now back to normal levels and have dropped the extra shifts.


----------



## tom73 (19 Jun 2020)

The track and trace figures for this week are about the same as last week. So it's not really running all that smoothy.Most of the tracing has been down to the current tracing set up of local public health and the NHS. Not the bolted on Serco call centre and associated bit's. With what's gone off to date and yesterday's Harding and Hancock show it's totally running away with it's self.

Never mind a rethink on the app it all need's one from the ground up. It's still badly managed , still not joined up and still not effective enough to know one what the virus is doing and two public attitudes towards test, track and trace. We are told the tests numbers are down as pepole are not having one. We are told people must isolate out of civic duty and must work with the tracers to identify others. When it's not happening it's our fault. You don't fix social issues by blaming you find out why I've not seen or heard anything in the line of government looking into why.

It's hard to tell what's not working with testing as we no longer know how many are people are being tested. No idea on false tests numbers from professional ones compared with DIY or the private companies "trained" ones. Still no word on the turn around time numbers for test's or numbers that never come back at all. No numbers on people who try to book a test but can't or turn up and told they are not on the list. No numbers on Public lab turn around compared to private lab figures. Which set up's are working well and one's that have issues ?

A testing order line that's not 24hrs , labs that don't open long enough, a top down private + NHS + LA set up with a hope of not seeing the bit of gaffer tape. Take what we have that works which is the current local set up and build it up for decades it's been ran into ground. Locally the logististes of this are too big. So we need the army to get things moving and placers they need to be. They also have man power and the training know how to get people trained and quickly get things moving. Have a bottom up process that feed's information in at a national level. Find and publish all the data good and bad. Some areas have had a set for mouths that working well so ask them and learn from it.
Government and LA's need to be up front and tell us what local lockdown really is and how it will work. If one area is looking to be losing it then come out and say so don't say it's all rosy it's clearly not.


----------



## mjr (19 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's hard to tell what's not working with testing as we no longer know how many are people are being tested.


From what I heard about the last tested acquaintance, there still aren't enough test centres, with people living in a small town directed to travel to another small town, two buses away and a bit far for a coughing person to cycle (or drive safely). It's better than when it was a 50 mile trip to the nearest city but, at worst, surely there should be a test centre near each hub of transport networks? It feels like test centres are sited for operator convenience rather than patient (or staff) ease of access.


----------



## mjr (19 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> I'm obviously a dick.....


I meant the lecturer!


----------



## tom73 (19 Jun 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> I don't understand why this app was so difficult? How complex is it? Doesn't all it do is detect when another phone is nearby and send the data back somewhere? I heard it's draining on power, because blue tooth has to be on all the time. I also heard it's iphones they can't get it to work on, which does not surprise me. Apple are very much more controlling of the software that runs on their products.



It's not but the government made it so. Don't fall for the government blame Apple line everyone told them it would not work. It even failed the NHS own app approval standards. With the app you've two options one , centralised with government or more likely private set up having all the data. Or two decentralised most of the data never leaves the phone 3rd party get's the bit's it need's to know the apple/google option. 
The latter is what most other countries have gone for. 

Apple for good reason do not allow any app that wants access to buletooth to run in the background. One it's a privacy issue and two it's like having your back door open and looking the other way as someone pockets your car key's. Knowing that something was coming Apple early on with google worked together on software that works and keep's everyone happy. Basically the the government want to control all of it inc the valuable data which it still won't say what it is going with. Germany early on wanted the same full on control but backed down in 24hrs after working out. Maybe Apple and google know best and trying with France to lean. On Apple to back down and let them have open season on users data.

We have a solution that we can have tomorrow which the Swiss and from yesterday Germany are using and it works. 
A team at UCL helped the swiss with it months ago. The same team that contacted the government back in April to say your's will not work do you want help. They said it will and no thanks. What's more is it's open source so won't cost a penny.


----------



## mjr (19 Jun 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> I don't understand why this app was so difficult? How complex is it? Doesn't all it do is detect when another phone is nearby and send the data back somewhere? I heard it's draining on power, because blue tooth has to be on all the time. I also heard it's iphones they can't get it to work on, which does not surprise me. Apple are very much more controlling of the software that runs on their products.


Not only detect when another phone is nearby but also how far away, which is one problem because Bluetooth range estimates are vague, which probably contributed to the French app fail described above. https://altbeacon.github.io/android-beacon-library/distance-calculations.html

Another problem is that scanning Bluetooth and especially transmitting a Bluetooth beacon is relatively power-hungry and phone battery optimisers kill such apps easily, plus some phone security tools don't like Bluetooth being discoverable all the time.

Ever had an app struggle to record an accurate GPS track? This is far far tougher. Even running in the foreground with a notification, it'll get stopped often on many phones. The phone OS methods, which can get higher priority and special service, may be the only way to do it anything like reliably if you want the phone to be usable for other tasks.


----------



## Milzy (19 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I agree but in reality it's not going to happen......so plan B has to be extensive wearing of face coverings (which also isn't going to happen). so plan C is the UK economy bumping along the bottom, waiting till the NHS becomes overwhelmed in the winter and we go into panic mode again.


Maybe the NHS won't be overwhelmed. Nobody actually knows what will happen. We will find out before too long.


----------



## Rocky (19 Jun 2020)

Milzy said:


> Maybe the NHS won't be overwhelmed. Nobody actually knows what will happen. We will find out before too long.


The NHS is normally overwhelmed during the winter with seasonal ‘flu and other winter problems - like old people falling and breaking bones. Adding a bit of Covid on top of that is going to make for a challenging time come Dec, Jan and Feb for the NHS. That is something that can be predicted with 100% certainty.


----------



## tom73 (19 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The NHS is normally overwhelmed during the winter with seasonal ‘flu and other winter problems - like old people falling and breaking bones. Adding a bit of Covid on top of that is going to make for a challenging time come Dec, Jan and Feb for the NHS. That is something that can be predicted with 100% certainty.



With the other 100% certainty of no-one willing to take charge of it all.


----------



## tom73 (19 Jun 2020)

The virus alert level remember that ?
Matt's had the box out and changed the light bulb it's now moved to 3. 
The man has no end of talents yesterday it was app developer and today it's handyman.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53106673


----------



## mjr (19 Jun 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/TheBrexitComic/status/1273640967975944193


----------



## Milzy (19 Jun 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> The NHS is normally overwhelmed during the winter with seasonal ‘flu and other winter problems - like old people falling and breaking bones. Adding a bit of Covid on top of that is going to make for a challenging time come Dec, Jan and Feb for the NHS. That is something that can be predicted with 100% certainty.


Maybe so. A&E admissions have been at an all tine low. People must be patching themselves up. 
As long as I can work or have furlough I don't mind.


----------



## mjr (19 Jun 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> I don't understand why this app was so difficult? How complex is it? Doesn't all it do is detect when another phone is nearby and send the data back somewhere? I heard it's draining on power, because blue tooth has to be on all the time. [...]


And another wrinkle with the Android version of the Apple/Google "exposure API" - it's being distributed in an update to the increasingly-misnamed "Google Play Services". This means that it probably won't work any time soon on Android Open Source Project phones, which includes freaks like me using LineageOS but also the "blocked" Chinese manufacturers like Huawei, Xiaomi, BBK (better known here as OnePlus), TCL (Alcatel), ZTE, Tinno (Sugar), and so on.

Obviously, cutting off large parts of the Android phone market is another problem when you need a critical mass (some say over 20% of the population, others over 60%) to use the app for it to be effective even if it they get it working correctly.

The German app uses the exposure API. I've not checked whether D3PT is different.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Jun 2020)

Great. And now the Martians come


View: https://twitter.com/7NewsAustralia/status/1272455143682830336


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (19 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Great. And now the Martians come
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/7NewsAustralia/status/1272455143682830336




The chances of that are a million to one, they said.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Jun 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> The chances of that are a million to one, they said.


But still,


----------



## Speicher (19 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Just had a quick Google and I can't find anything. I must have mis-remembered something. That's the highest thing I can say about Dom.



I think his sister is the person you are thinking of.


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> The way its going you or I could be presenting the briefing soon. Maybe just in our pants.



It's happening.

One lectern again. I'm taking my trousers off. .

They are following the science as Boris just managed to say through smirking lips.


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> But still,


 Look, do they come or not, this is silly.


----------



## Speicher (19 Jun 2020)

Speicher said:


> I think his sister is the person you are thinking of.




Apologies, I may not have been right. 
https://fullfact.org/online/not-dominic-cummings-sister/


----------



## tom73 (19 Jun 2020)

So the sats are down but not really in a rush to go down so we've not nailed this yet. The R rate is the same as it's been for weeks.
But the threat level has been lowered and it's odd's on to formerly forget social distancing. New cases are rising in some areas including schools. How long before the penny drops and they slow things down before things really speed up?


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Jun 2020)

This is one of the worst briefings yet. A no mark with no professional back up. Did not even attempt to answer the questions from the public. Who voted these balloons in?


----------



## Beebo (19 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> This is one of the worst briefings yet. A no mark with no professional back up. Did not even attempt to answer the questions from the public. Who voted these balloons in?


Gavin Williamson. 
god help us!


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> Gavin Williamson.
> god help us!



Absolutely the worst briefing. 

Chancers. F'in chancers.


----------



## mjr (19 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> So the sats are down but not really in a rush to go down so we've not nailed this yet. The R rate is the same as it's been for weeks.
> But the threat level has been lowered and it's odd's on to formerly forget social distancing. New cases are rising in some areas including schools. How long before the penny drops and they slow things down before things really speed up?


Looks slightly lower to me than 2 weeks ago, although the latest is the ZOE+KCL estimate for 17th June based on lax-security smartphone users, and not the U.Cambridge one which hasn't been published in 2 weeks (and the CMMID one based on NHS Pathways data is even older). I guess the R value estimates that gov.uk are using aren't changing.


----------



## Rusty Nails (19 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> This is one of the worst briefings yet. A no mark with no professional back up. Did not even attempt to answer the questions from the public. Who voted these balloons in?


I have not been a great fan of Mark Drakeford in the past, but I must admit he has done a better job of the Welsh briefings than the UK government. He doesn't rely on/hide behind expert props, takes more questions and gives more thorough answers than the Tories.


----------



## tom73 (19 Jun 2020)

Oh look the app now's hit another problem....
Yesterday it was all down to Apple the distance-measuring did not work said Hancock. 
"We've agreed to join forces with Google and Apple, to bring the best bits of both systems together," Mr Hancock said.
Downing Street said the government had "worked closely with Apple and Google"
It's news to Apple they've not even asked or told of a problem. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53105642


----------



## mjr (19 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Absolutely the worst briefing.
> 
> Chancers. F'in chancers.


School "bubbles" will now be whole-class, which means each case in a school will mean about 30 households isolating, taking about 50 working-age adults out of circulation, based on
about 22% of households with dependent children being lone-parent, rounding down to allow for a few older parents and ignoring working-age siblings in the hope they cancel some other error out 

Apparently COVID DEFCON 3 (medium spicy) means that social distancing can be relaxed. Was that ever said before or have they just made that up?

Over in Switzerland, they've just reduced social distancing from 2m to 1.5m like many of their neighbours (except France which uses 1m).


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> School "bubbles" will now be whole-class, which means each case in a school will mean about 30 households isolating, taking about 50 working-age adults out of circulation, based on
> about 22% of households with dependent children being lone-parent, rounding down to allow for a few older parents and ignoring working-age siblings in the hope they cancel some other error out
> 
> Apparently COVID DEFCON 3 (medium spicy) means that social distancing can be relaxed. Was that ever said before or have they just made that up?
> ...



Is all going to wind down to suit the economy.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Is all going to wind down to suit the economy.


An economy that will splutter on inefficiently like an engine needing a complete rebuild. The higher end of R estimates give over 1 for London, and the South West, which indicate that outbreaks will continue to hit business' ability to function well.


----------



## marinyork (19 Jun 2020)

From the Guardian
*Italy: Covid-19 was present in two big cities two months before first case was detected*
The *coronavirus* was present in two large Italian cities in December, more than two months before the first case was detected, a national health institute study of waste water has found.
That suggests the virus appeared in *Italy* around the same time it was first reported in China.
Researchers discovered genetic traces of Sars-CoV-2 - as the virus is officially known - in samples of waste water collected in Milan and Turin at the end of last year, and Bologna in January, the ISS institute said in a statement seen by AFP on Friday.
*Italy*’s first known native case was discovered mid-February.
The results “help to understand the start of the circulation of the virus in *Italy*,” the ISS said.
They also “confirm the by-now consolidated international evidence” as to the strategic function of sewer samples as an early detection tool, it added.
The results feed into an effort by scientists around the world to trace the virus’s family tree


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> It's happening.
> 
> One lectern again. I'm taking my trousers off. .
> 
> They are following the science as Boris just managed to say through smirking lips.



You misheard they are following the sceance


----------



## mjr (19 Jun 2020)

Sweary: 
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1273946349185249281

BBC Radio 4 just reported people in Liverpool booking tests were being directed to a park by mistake.


----------



## tom73 (20 Jun 2020)

Now the the death figures look to be out including 22 consecutive days of over 1000 that no-one told us about. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...k-ministers-accused-downplaying-covid-19-peak


----------



## Tanis8472 (20 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now the the death figures look to be out including 22 consecutive days of over 1000 that no-one told us about.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...k-ministers-accused-downplaying-covid-19-peak



Absolute daffodils


----------



## srw (20 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now the the death figures look to be out including 22 consecutive days of over 1000 that no-one told us about.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...k-ministers-accused-downplaying-covid-19-peak


I'd be surprised if ministers even know how bad the figures ever were, or understand the point.

What that article underplays, I think, is the sheer difficulty of getting decent real-time data. It also, frustratingly, looks at deaths specifically linked to Covid19 rather than all cause mortality - which would make the numbers even higher. The Guardian has access to numerate journalists, so it's annoying that they haven't been commissioned.


----------



## tom73 (20 Jun 2020)

Move over facecoverings the "Tube Tube" is here.

View: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-53106644/coronavirus-designer-develops-mobile-plastic-shield

The guy behind it said he feel's self-conscious wearing a mask but not with this 
Can see a whole new paper coming for the prof @Brompton Bruce


----------



## Julia9054 (20 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Move over facecoverings the "Tube Tube" is here.
> 
> View: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-53106644/coronavirus-designer-develops-mobile-plastic-shield
> 
> ...



I have an urge to pour a bucket of water in the top


----------



## tom73 (20 Jun 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I have an urge to pour a bucket of water in the top


Or a the odd plastic spider or two. 
Maybe wrong but at 95 quid can't see it flying off the shelves.


----------



## marinyork (20 Jun 2020)

srw said:


> I'd be surprised if ministers even know how bad the figures ever were, or understand the point.
> 
> What that article underplays, I think, is the sheer difficulty of getting decent real-time data. It also, frustratingly, looks at deaths specifically linked to Covid19 rather than all cause mortality - which would make the numbers even higher. The Guardian has access to numerate journalists, so it's annoying that they haven't been commissioned.



Whitty, Ferguson, Edmunds and to a lesser extent Boyd have all said that the data in March had a lot of uncertainties and delays. At comments in times they've also said the obvious that there were chasm sized lack of data problems in January and February.

The data available now and what we can take from past data is a vast improvement. A lot of the issues around that are public information and lack of confidence through repetitive daily press conferences and lack of clarity.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Jun 2020)

So what's this Covid-19 doo-dah that's just appeared on my phone?

On Android go to settings, scroll down to Google and it's in there - "Covid 19 exposure notifications". Looks like it's partially installed and has to be completed.


----------



## marinyork (20 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> So what's this Covid-19 doo-dah that's just appeared on my phone?
> 
> On Android go to settings, scroll down to Google and it's in there - "Covid 19 exposure notifications". Looks like it's partially installed and has to be completed.



It's an app

https://support.google.com/android/answer/9888358?hl=en-GB

First I heard of it but since many are using a google decentralised system that makes sense.


----------



## Julia9054 (20 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> So what's this Covid-19 doo-dah that's just appeared on my phone?
> 
> On Android go to settings, scroll down to Google and it's in there - "Covid 19 exposure notifications". Looks like it's partially installed and has to be completed.


All phones now updated to have this capability but you have to download an app to make it work


----------



## marinyork (20 Jun 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> All phones now updated to have this capability but you have to download an app to make it work



It needs a goverment sanctioned public health app to work.

In the UK this will be a Christmas present from Matt Hancock.


----------



## tom73 (20 Jun 2020)

Came with the last Apple update too. It has to be enabled and have the app to work once we get one that is.
Looking at the settings and the info that go's with it. It's simple to turn off and control the data.


----------



## mjr (20 Jun 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> All phones now updated to have this capability but you have to download an app to make it work


Not on my Lineage phone yet, but surprisingly, it has appeared on a Huawei phone here. Aren't they banned from Google exports any more then?

I've not looked into this at all but maybe someone here already has: could you just install D3PT or the Corona Warn app instead of waiting for gov.UK to get a clue?


----------



## DCLane (20 Jun 2020)

Not on my phone as I'm on Android 4.4 and it needs Android 8 or above. I prefer to spend money on bikes and bike bits rather than depreciating phones


----------



## marinyork (20 Jun 2020)

DCLane said:


> Not on my phone as I'm on Android 4.4 and it needs Android 8 or above. I prefer to spend money on bikes and bike bits rather than depreciating phones



Google agree. 94.1% of users are on 5.0 and above i.e. a higher version of android on a recent survey. Although a disappointing 60.8% are on 8 and above for the purposes of this.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Jun 2020)

Coronavirus: New Covid-19 tracing tool appears on smartphones


----------



## marinyork (20 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Coronavirus: New Covid-19 tracing tool appears on smartphones



Yeah but I want it to yell warning, warning Will Robinson.


----------



## mjr (20 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Yeah but I want it to yell warning, warning Will Robinson.


Not "Dave, stop. Stop, will you? Stop, Dave. Will you stop Dave? Stop, Dave"?


----------



## IaninSheffield (21 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Yeah but I want it to yell warning, warning Will Robinson.





mjr said:


> Not "Dave, stop. Stop, will you? Stop, Dave. Will you stop Dave? Stop, Dave"?


Or how about the sound you get in cars with parking sensors?
Beep beep beep beep beep beep beepbeepbeep


----------



## Rocky (21 Jun 2020)

Just in case we thought Covid was going away, the WHO report that there were 150,000 new cases (reported) yesterday across the world. That’s the highest figure so far.


----------



## tom73 (21 Jun 2020)

Just in time for this week's next episode of mixed messages. When the distancing official/effectively end and we move to full out business as normal. But never fear "say alert" and nothing will go wrong


----------



## pawl (21 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Coronavirus: New Covid-19 tracing tool appears on smartphones




Hasn’t yet appeared on my smart phone,


----------



## Mo1959 (21 Jun 2020)

pawl said:


> Hasn’t yet appeared on my smart phone,


I think it's only an advisory message telling you about it. No app is downloaded until it is ready, and you actually download it.


----------



## pawl (21 Jun 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I think it's only an advisory message telling you about it. No app is downloaded until it is ready, and you actually download it.





Thanks Mo.


----------



## tom73 (21 Jun 2020)

Large outbreak in Germany over 1000 at a meat processing factory 7000 work on site. They are still testing so maybe even more. 
Not looking good for the July 4th maybe looking even more of a gamble.


----------



## tom73 (21 Jun 2020)

Even the man with the sat's is not connived it's a good idea. 

Sir Ian Diamond, the UK's National Statistician, says there has been a "steady decline" in coronavirus cases right across the country, but "not as fast perhaps as many of us would have liked".
He tells the BBC's Andrew Marr Show that "we're moving into a new phase" but that "the virus certainly hasn't gone away".
"We need to move into a period of surveillance and real vigilance to identify any outbreaks and move to get on top of them really quickly," he says.
Prof Diamond says there are still around 3,000 new infections a day, which is a relatively low level, but fresh outbreaks have already occurred in places like Anglesey.
"My own belief is that this virus is going to be with us for a long time. We need to be quick in acting to ensure we don't get a large second wave."
Around 3.5 million people have had Covid-19 or have natural antibodies against the disease, he said.


----------



## mjr (21 Jun 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I think it's only an advisory message telling you about it. No app is downloaded until it is ready, and you actually download it.


It's more than a message. It's the Google/Apple Exposure functions, ready for apps to use as long as they obey Google's and Apple's rules.


----------



## Tanis8472 (21 Jun 2020)

Well this could be awkward lol

https://amp.theguardian.com/politic...g-tory-poll-ratings?__twitter_impression=true


----------



## Beebo (21 Jun 2020)

158 cases at a welsh chicken processing factory.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53131765
thats a big localised outbreak.


----------



## Rezillo (21 Jun 2020)

"Incidents like this show the potential for pockets of asymptomatic undiagnosed infection in the community, highlighting the importance of the adherence to social distancing and hygiene measures."Dr Johnson said rapid test and trace facilities had "helped identify this situation" and said health teams would keep measures in place to "bring the outbreak to a rapid conclusion". 

Some pocket! If a plant can have 158 asymptomatic cases, what about their families and their contacts in Anglesey? What else is out there amongst the untested community awaiting the rest of us post-lockdown?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Jun 2020)

pawl said:


> Hasn’t yet appeared on my smart phone,


That's what I thought but Settings - then Google settings and there it was. Android phone.


----------



## Slick (21 Jun 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> That's what I thought but Settings - then Google settings and there it was. Android phone.


I thought I'd escaped but just checked and there it was.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Jun 2020)

I'd hate to think that public health policy is being driven by Wetherspoons.


----------



## tom73 (22 Jun 2020)

Think it's more like public health by plastic spoon.


----------



## marinyork (22 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Large outbreak in Germany over 1000 at a meat processing factory 7000 work on site. They are still testing so maybe even more.
> Not looking good for the July 4th maybe looking even more of a gamble.



Chuffing heck. If that's Germany then imagine how bad it'd be elsewhere.

Seems to be a lesson of late that processing factories is one that needs a rethink and more preventative testing resources. In any country.


----------



## mjr (22 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Think it's more like public health by plastic spoon.


I was born with a plastic spoon in my mouth...


----------



## tom73 (22 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Chuffing heck. If that's Germany then imagine how bad it'd be elsewhere.
> 
> Seems to be a lesson of late that processing factories is one that needs a rethink and more preventative testing resources. In any country.


Yep this is the point we are already seeing outbreaks here in the same sort of factories. One of the cases that hancock let out the bag. 
Was news to most even once who live in the area. No-one had said a word about it as it was deemed not to help with controlling it. 
Which on one way is true but if Local public health can't even be open when cases like this happen even if they are under control. It just undermines the whole already messed up testing set up. 

As for Germany it's not the only problem other sites are effected too with new cases including an apartment block with now 100's in lockdown. These local outbreaks have pushed up the R to 2.3. They have been it's look's quick to act I still don't feel we are able to act nearly as quick. Come Tuesday the government look's set to start playing a very thin line of chicken.


----------



## marinyork (22 Jun 2020)

We need this saliva test trial to be successful and rolled out.


----------



## tom73 (22 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> We need this saliva test trial to be successful and rolled out.


Results in 20 minutes reports says are we testing the same one china has rolled out or a different one?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Jun 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1275005144946683904


----------



## mjr (22 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Chuffing heck. If that's Germany then imagine how bad it'd be elsewhere.
> 
> Seems to be a lesson of late that processing factories is one that needs a rethink and more preventative testing resources. In any country.


Facebook fools are currently making fun of Germany, claiming R=2.5 is due to Merkel not aiming for herd immunity like clever Johnson and Sweden, and saying how this demonstrates that herd immunity is the correct approach


----------



## fossyant (22 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Facebook fools are currently making fun of Germany, claiming R=2.5 is due to Merkel not aiming for herd immunity like clever Johnson and Sweden, and saying how this demonstrates that herd immunity is the correct approach



Facebook... deleted that 2 years ago.


----------



## Inertia (22 Jun 2020)

fossyant said:


> Facebook... deleted that 2 years ago.


Crazy, it’s still there for me


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Jun 2020)

> Pubs, bars and restaurants will have to take the names and contact details of customers before they are allowed in under plans being drawn up for the next stage in lifting Britain’s lockdown.



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reopened-pubs-will-take-names-and-details-of-drinkers-08vdt2328


Ha ha ha, nice one centurion. But seriously...


----------



## Beebo (22 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reopened-pubs-will-take-names-and-details-of-drinkers-08vdt2328
> 
> 
> Ha ha ha, nice one centurion. But seriously...


No way for that will get abused. 
I think I will use, Mr D Cummings, Barnard Castle.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Jun 2020)

Maybe it's just me but Hancock's lauding of case numbers declining seems, well, a little flat. Very little movement in last two weeks. Hopefully we'll see drops to come, but this doesn't look great.


----------



## Julia9054 (22 Jun 2020)

In my little local, the bar manager knows who everyone is anyway!


----------



## mjr (22 Jun 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> In my little local, the bar manager knows who everyone is anyway!


I don't think he knows me.


----------



## tom73 (22 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Maybe it's just me but Hancock's lauding of case numbers declining seems, well, a little flat. Very little movement in last two weeks. Hopefully we'll see drops to come, but this doesn't look great.
> 
> View attachment 531717
> Matt keeps saying it’s all just fine
> So it must just be you


----------



## Ming the Merciless (22 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> I don't think he knows me.



or me


----------



## Rusty Nails (22 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> I don't think he knows me.





YukonBoy said:


> or me



He does now I've told him. And you're barred!


----------



## MntnMan62 (22 Jun 2020)

Here's a headline from today's news from the Associated Press. Let's just open up the entire planet. That way those who have the brains to see that there is no cure or vaccine for the virus yet will continue to keep their distance and wear masks while those who are dimwits will congregate without masks and give each other the virus. And many will die. Now that's what I call the Law of Natural Selection.

https://apnews.com/3a3642cb4b7244665dda34c437c87988


----------



## Inertia (22 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Here's a headline from today's news from the Associated Press. Let's just open up the entire planet. That way those who have the brains to see that there is no cure or vaccine for the virus yet will continue to keep their distance and wear masks while those who are dimwits will congregate without masks and give each other the virus. And many will die. Now that's what I call the Law of Natural Selection.


That sounds like the early government policy


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Jun 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> In my little local, the bar manager knows who everyone is anyway!


I've got a feeling many of the big public houses will do away with cash payment and do it contactless with service at the table or at a dedicated service counter somewhere accessible at the bar.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Here's a headline from today's news from the Associated Press. Let's just open up the entire planet. That way those who have the brains to see that there is no cure or vaccine for the virus yet will continue to keep their distance and wear masks while those who are dimwits will congregate without masks and give each other the virus. And many will die. Now that's what I call the Law of Natural Selection.



Except it doesn't work like that. It's impossible to completely isolate yourself, so if there's a high prevalence, we'll all end up with it.


----------



## Julia9054 (22 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> I don't think he knows me.


I bet he does! He’s really clever like that.
Just as your brain has half formulated the thought that you might like another, he appears as if by magic at your elbow to ask if you’d like another. He also remembers whatever bollox you were drivelling on about last time you were there.


----------



## Julia9054 (22 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> He does now I've told him. And you're barred!


I can’t imagine him barring anyone - he’d just look disappointed and they’d bar themselves


----------



## RoadRider400 (22 Jun 2020)

fossyant said:


> Facebook... deleted that 2 years ago.


Facebook? Completed it.


----------



## tom73 (22 Jun 2020)

Deaths in the US now bigger than from WW1 and just had new case increase not seen since May.
This on the back of WHO recored biggest daily case total to date. Tomorrow meanwhile Boris moves to "please yourself we are bored with this now" phase.


----------



## fossyant (22 Jun 2020)

What the heck is going to happen to those most at risk come August. How can a teacher or nurse work safely when they, for example, may have a severe heart or lung condition.

Some employers will insist they are back at work, or no pay. My employer is looking at 5 different classes of staff, from can work safely on site to those who won't be able to risk coming in.


----------



## MntnMan62 (22 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Deaths in the US now bigger than from WW1 and just had new case increase not seen since May.
> This on the back of WHO recored biggest daily case total to date. Tomorrow meanwhile Boris moves to "please yourself we are bored with this now" phase.



It would seem Boris and drumpf are taking cues from each other.


----------



## tom73 (22 Jun 2020)

fossyant said:


> What the heck is going to happen to those most at risk come August. How can a teacher or nurse work safely when they, for example, may have a severe heart or lung condition.
> 
> Some employers will insist they are back at work, or no pay. My employer is looking at 5 different classes of staff, from can work safely on site to those who won't be able to risk coming in.


Your stuffed the government line look's to be you will go out and when we say so. All the help your going to get is talk to your employer and work something out. Some may have good ones many won't. If you can't work from home or fly a desk well away from risk. It look's like your down the job centre.


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## MntnMan62 (23 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Your stuffed the government line look's to be you will go out and when we say so. All the help your going to get is talk to your employer and work something out. Some may have good ones many won't. If you can't work from home or fly a desk well away from risk. It look's like your down the job centre.



That's just not how it should be. No one should be forced to RISK THEIR LIVES for a job. Unless of course that job itself is taking a risk with your life. But I suspect that in the US this will become a major issue for the election. The virus isn't going anywhere since there is no vaccine. So when so many people who can't afford to take that risk are facing a job lose merely to stay alive, you can bet people will speak up to the pollsters and drumpf's support will drop even lower than it is now. He'll either intervene on their behalf and put in place some protections to protect those workers or he'll face the reality of his term ending in February. He'll probably face that anyway regardless, but he only cares about himself so he'll try and shore up his support if he thinks it's worth shoring up. He also may not care. Either way, he's done.


----------



## Gazjacko (23 Jun 2020)

As someone who is shielding I am really concerned that the Government either
Don’t understand 
Or
Don’t care
Which is worse? I’m not sure. I heard that the “risk is down”, NO IT’S NOT! Anyone working in risk management know there are two factors, risk and likelihood. For me (I have an underlying respiratory condition and am on immunosuppressant drugs), if I contracted Covid it is highly likely I will be at least very ill and possibly worse. My chances of permanent damage to my lungs ( and my ability to ride my bike) are high. This is the ‘risk’. The likelihood currently with social distancing at 2metres is high enough for me to only go out for short early morning rides (5am) or selected quiet walks where I’m able to move away from others if necessary. With the proposal to reduce to 1metre my world contracts if I wish to place myself to the same level of exposure. 
So which one is it? 
The Government don’t understand, meaning they are incompetent, useless, we’re pre-warned about pandemic preparation and did nothing. 
Or
They know, they look at the shielding group and as an average I’d guess they are more likely to economically non-contributors, so with the economic imperative of the new measures, the shielding group will have to be collateral damage!


----------



## fossyant (23 Jun 2020)

@Gazjacko - people like yourself, visibly fit and healthy with underlying conditions will still need to be very careful (TBH I'm being careful as I don't fancy catching it) and unless an employer can work through this, it's going to be very tough. The PM can't just say it's now safe.. he's going to get a roasting.

Working at a Uni, we've probably got hundreds of people who can't really come in to work - within 1m you've probably got 4 other people in the offices, never mind the students. The plan is that if you don't need to be there, you are to stay home. This eases building congestion. We're going to end up with a quite complicated 'classification' system. The other worry is if folk develop a 'cold' cough then everyone will be running for cover and taking 14 days isolation sick leave.


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Jun 2020)

fossyant said:


> The other worry is if folk develop a 'cold' cough then everyone will be running for cover and taking 14 days isolation sick leave.



This is why we need a massive, rapid, test and trace strategy - and why it's vital to suppress the thing before winter.


----------



## tom73 (23 Jun 2020)

@Gazjacko I've not seen the official updated advice yet so can't tell you what the official line is.
For the moment continue doing what you feel is safe and you're happy with. You're going to need at some point to speak with which ever HCP is over seeing the day to day management of your condition. I'd not do that yet as to date every time the advice has change it's only come out late at night within minutes of it coming into effect. So best leaving it for a few days they are going to over load of calls about this today.
You need to contact your employer again they mostly don't know much at the moment either. They will need to find new ways to manage the work place before you go anyway near it. If they can't then some other way has to found or they will have to continue what ever your doing now.


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## Gazjacko (23 Jun 2020)

I’m fortunate in that my employer is happy for me to work from home and others in my situation are being dealt with in a similar pragmatic way. I’ve likened it to asking someone to cross the road with their eyes shut. At the beginning it was middle of the day and the road was busy so you’d be foolish to think about it. With measures the traffic’s less but you still wouldn’t want to try! The Government is now proposing to increase the traffic !


----------



## tom73 (23 Jun 2020)

So 2 to 1 it is with mitigation if you have to sorry Boris that's yet more wishy washy public health. 
So you must wear face coving on the bus to the shop but once in the shop do what you like. 
We can't have both the less distance more risk , more placers open more risk.
How many weeks must we have this time before the message changes ?
How many cases must have and in turn deaths?


----------



## Inertia (23 Jun 2020)

I definitely won’t be stepping in a pub on the 4th, They sounds like a recipe for disaster.


----------



## DCLane (23 Jun 2020)

The changes mean my holiday on 6th July goes ahead, but we'll be in a lodge on a park. No shared facilities.

I'd be concerned about still being too close to others. Sorry Boris but no cinema, pub, restaurant for me yet.


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## johnblack (23 Jun 2020)

I can't wait, pubs have been hit hard and much more of this would mean that many would never open again. For villages like mine, it's more than just a pub, it's a families home, a community asset and an employer.


----------



## Rezillo (23 Jun 2020)

Mrs R and I were discussing a couple of days ago the curious silence from the science advisors over the last week and the contrast with the week before when there were clear signs of unrest from them over the speed of the end of lockdown.

We wondered if they had been shut up, perhaps by warnings of total economic collapse for extending or renewing lockdown and that whatever happened next, Johnson has made it clear it would have to be lived with somehow but not by shutting down the economy.

If so, we thought that Johnson's tactics would be to then try and force blame for any rise in cases onto the general public for not following distancing guidelines rather that it being down to him opening everything up.

We also thought we could expect to see some warnings coming out about how a second lockdown would be a disaster, in order to reinforce the "I'm not to blame, there's no choice" position for any upturn in cases.

I didn't expect this to start as early as yesterday! The Governor of the Bank of England wheeled out to give a rather vague, light on detail presentation about how close the first lockdown came to disaster. I expect Johnson will pat him on the back for that and ask him to go back in his cupboard.


----------



## johnblack (23 Jun 2020)

Rezillo said:


> The Governor of the Bank of England wheeled out to give a rather vague, light on detail presentation about how close the first lockdown came to disaster.


Financially it really has been a disaster that will be with us for years, making the post 2008 financial issues look like a minor blip, the next few years are going to be brutal.


----------



## tom73 (23 Jun 2020)

Public health wise has not been a bed of roses which will last for decades. Health and economic wellbeing are not opposites.
However much the government likes to play they off each other. The risk of a 2rd lockdown will make this one look nothing. It's a big game of risk the garment are playing. A 2rd wave on top of winter pressures and the NHS will not be able to save the governments neck again. Never find the extra lives it wont be able to save.


----------



## tom73 (23 Jun 2020)

Some good news today's daily briefing is the last one. Now only getting one when they "something significant to announce"
oh the excitement can't wait


----------



## GilesM (23 Jun 2020)

Inertia said:


> I definitely won’t be stepping in a pub on the 4th, They sounds like a recipe for disaster.



That's your choice, and totally up to you, I'll be in one as soon as I can, probably be the 11th as that's when I'll next be south of the border, unless I have a wee trip to Cornhill upon Tweed or Norham for Sunday lunch on 5th. Economically we are totally screwed, and the only way out is for people to start spending cash, I quite enjoy spending my spare cash in the pub


----------



## johnblack (23 Jun 2020)

My guess is that most people who like and spend time in pubs will be back, people who tend to pop to the pub every now and again will be the ones who stay away. Plus the youth, they'll want to get back.


----------



## coldash (23 Jun 2020)

Got my "extremely vulnerable" letter today. Seems fair enough to me. I've got a borked immune system and am on blood thinners so I'm used to mitigating risk as far as is compatible with living a life. So I avoid busy times on the road, wear a helmet (Sorry!), take my blood thinners late in the day so that they are well through their half-life before I'm out on my bike, wear my dog tags at all times (except in bed), get my flu jabs, keep fit and avoid people coughing up their guts as much as possible. The things that I do differently are avoiding shops, coffee cafes, the gym and people in general. I'll probably do some of the latter (not sure about the people aspect) as and when I think the numbers work for me. I'll still drive (not that I have recently) and do the same risk / reward bit with that. All in all, not a lot different to life before Covid-19, but with an additional and unwelcome factor to consider.


----------



## Archie_tect (23 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Public health wise has not been a bed of roses which will last for decades. Health and economic wellbeing are not opposites.
> However much the government likes to play they off each other. The risk of a 2rd lockdown will make this one look nothing. It's a big game of risk the garment are playing. A 2rd wave on top of winter pressures and the NHS will not be able to save the governments neck again. Never find the extra lives it wont be able to save.


Perhaps it's a cynical preparation, bringing forward a second wave before Autumn to avoid the overlap with winter pressures.


----------



## Inertia (23 Jun 2020)

GilesM said:


> That's your choice, and totally up to you, I'll be in one as soon as I can, probably be the 11th as that's when I'll next be south of the border, unless I have a wee trip to Cornhill upon Tweed or Norham for Sunday lunch on 5th. Economically we are totally screwed, and the only way out is for people to start spending cash, I quite enjoy spending my spare cash in the pub


Good for you, while I have sympathy for the pubs affected I’m not going to risk my life to keep them in business. We don’t have to go to the pub to spend cash.


----------



## Johnno260 (23 Jun 2020)

I don’t even watch the news anymore, if there is a change and my employer wants me to attend the office then I’m sure I will be told.

I won’t be rushing back to cinemas and pubs anytime soon.

We support local business with regards to smaller shops and takeaways for me that’s enough for the time being.


----------



## fossyant (23 Jun 2020)

I may go to our caravan site's pub when that can open (Wales) so long as it's a warm day and I can sit outside - here is hoping the pub will expand the outside seating. Me, my pint and my bottle of hand wash !

One of the pubs on my usual lunch route was busy arranging it's outside seating so it was all socially distanced yesterday.


----------



## tom73 (23 Jun 2020)

If you are off to the Pubs, bars and restaurants remember it's not going to be the same of some time. 
Table service indoors, and owners will be asked to keep contact details of customers to help with contact tracing. 
So that then beings into play data issues and even if some have any way to take the details in the first place. 
The odd one is placers of worship can open for full Services but no need to recored who go's.


----------



## GilesM (23 Jun 2020)

Inertia said:


> Good for you, while I have sympathy for the pubs affected I’m not going to risk my life to keep them in business. We don’t have to go to the pub to spend cash.



I have huge sympathy for the pubs and the people who work in them, and every extra day they are forced to stay shut the chance of them reopening is greatly reduced, we all have to assess the risk, and at this point in time I think the risk is very low, I am very happy that I will soon have the choice to go to the pub again, it's just disappointing that it won't be a local pub.


----------



## midlife (23 Jun 2020)

fossyant said:


> What the heck is going to happen to those most at risk come August. How can a teacher or nurse work safely when they, for example, may have a severe heart or lung condition.
> 
> Some employers will insist they are back at work, or no pay. My employer is looking at 5 different classes of staff, from can work safely on site to those who won't be able to risk coming in.




I work across sites and there was a rather hurried risk assessment carried out recently. Nothing like the whiff of litigation to get the NHS moving.

Not sure what the eventual outcome is going to be. Where I work the older cohort is one of the largest. People come here to work into retirement, I did ! If they remove vulnerable staff from patient facing roles the reduction in service will be significant. What can you do with a clinician who cannot see patients, medically retire them?


----------



## Inertia (23 Jun 2020)

GilesM said:


> I have huge sympathy for the pubs and the people who work in them, and every extra day they are forced to stay shut the chance of them reopening is greatly reduced, we all have to assess the risk, and at this point in time I think the risk is very low, I am very happy that I will soon have the choice to go to the pub again, it's just disappointing that it won't be a local pub.


It won’t be the same

View: https://youtu.be/wrZg9U5TwLA


----------



## GilesM (23 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> If you are off to the Pubs, bars and restaurants remember it's not going to be the same of some time.
> Table service indoors, and owners will be asked to keep contact details of customers to help with contact tracing.
> So that then beings into play data issues and even if some have any way to take the details in the first place.
> The odd one is placers of worship can open for full Services but no need to recored who go's.



I'm more than happy to have table service, very civilised, and so what if I have to tell the pub owner who I am, half the time I go out is to a pub or restaurant where I've booked a table, I am sure it won't be the same to start with, (probably for some time) but sure beats no pubs or restaurants, and a huge increase in unemployment. I have no doubt proper draught beer will still taste good, and good food cooked by somebody else will be wonderful.


----------



## Inertia (23 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> If you are off to the Pubs, bars and restaurants remember it's not going to be the same of some time.
> Table service indoors, and owners will be asked to keep contact details of customers to help with contact tracing.
> So that then beings into play data issues and even if some have any way to take the details in the first place.
> The odd one is placers of worship can open for full Services but no need to recored who go's.


Are they introducing any kind of guidelines for pubs as I can see some pubs just opening as before unless told otherwise? I did hear the bit you mention about having to give your contact details, before entering, in case someone tests positive.


----------



## GilesM (23 Jun 2020)

Inertia said:


> It won’t be the same



It certainly won't be if we don't go.


----------



## Inertia (23 Jun 2020)

GilesM said:


> It certainly won't be if we don't go.


I'm sure there will be plenty of takers so I don't think you need to worry too much.

As much as I like a beer, I think little we are a little too alcohol obsessed, but that's probably for another thread.


----------



## tom73 (23 Jun 2020)

Inertia said:


> Are they introducing any kind of guidelines for pubs as I can see some pubs just opening as before unless told otherwise? I did hear the bit you mention about having to give your contact details, before entering, in case someone tests positive.


Yes normal things everyone else as had to do. How it works for each pub lords knows and even with 2M now down to 1M it's still not worth some opening anyway. New rules are coming in to make it easy for pubs to have more outside areas. With a bit of imagination the small pubs could be helped a lot. The big boys will be fine but they are not the once needing help.


----------



## Inertia (23 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes normal things everyone else as had to do. How it works for each pub lords knows and even with 2M now down to 1M it's still not worth some opening anyway. New rules are coming in to make it easy for pubs to have more outside areas. With a bit of imagination the small pubs could be helped a lot. The big boys will be fine but they are not the once needing help.


Everyone favourite landlord, Wetherspoons, will be fine with his ordering at the table app.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (23 Jun 2020)

So while Johnson is killing off the briefings on the main stage, the test and trace app gets quietly ditched over in the Lords. World-beaten to a pulp.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...BjxZFBhePMZKM-PkUU2OzVoTnQRxPRRyP9_RztHLn86eN


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## MntnMan62 (23 Jun 2020)

While I'm concerned about the economic fallout from this virus, I'm also concerned about people's lives. Not just people dying from the virus but people who contract the virus and survive with permanent damage to vital organs. This is happening to not just the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions but children and otherwise healthy adults of all ages. The virus can permanently scar the lungs, damage the heart, kidneys, etc. It would be one thing if this was like the flu where you have to have symptoms in order to transmit the virus to someone else. But asympomatic people can transmit it as well. It is only because of this aspect of the virus that we are seeing the lockdowns which has had such a devastating impact on economies around the planet. What also hasn't helped is how the pandemic response has been completely mishandled, at least here in the US. What's even more unconscionable is the admission that they ordered the slowdown of testing. That is something that I just can't get my head around. I understand his motivation for it. I can't possibly understand the justification for it. From day one I have believed that the only way to deal with it is to conduct testing on a massive scale. That way those who need to be quarantined can be quarantined and everyone else can go about their business. The virus would be tracked and managed and I guarantee the economy would not have been squashed as it has been because no one was willing to do what was necessary. I call that incompetence and gross negligence. That's my rant.


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## Inertia (23 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> While I'm concerned about the economic fallout from this virus, I'm also concerned about people's lives. Not just people dying from the virus but people who contract the virus and survive with permanent damage to vital organs. This is happening to not just the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions but children and otherwise healthy adults of all ages. The virus can permanently scar the lungs, damage the heart, kidneys, etc. It would be one thing if this was like the flu where you have to have symptoms in order to transmit the virus to someone else. But asympomatic people can transmit it as well. It is only because of this aspect of the virus that we are seeing the lockdowns which has had such a devastating impact on economies around the planet. What also hasn't helped is how the pandemic response has been completely mishandled, at least here in the US. What's even more unconscionable is the admission that they ordered the slowdown of testing. That is something that I just can't get my head around. I understand his motivation for it. I can't possibly understand the justification for it. From day one I have believed that the only way to deal with it is to conduct testing on a massive scale. That way those who need to be quarantined can be quarantined and everyone else can go about their business. The virus would be tracked and managed and I guarantee the economy would not have been squashed as it has been because no one was willing to do what was necessary. I call that incompetence and gross negligence. That's my rant.


I only hope lessons are learned for next time. With better handling and, now with experience, we *should *do better. 

I'm really not hopeful they will do better next time though, they really are poorer than I could have imagined, and that's a depressing thought.


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## midlife (23 Jun 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> So while Johnson is killing off the briefings on the main stage, the test and trace app gets quietly ditched over in the Lords. World-beaten to a pulp.
> 
> https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...BjxZFBhePMZKM-PkUU2OzVoTnQRxPRRyP9_RztHLn86eN



Blimey, what on earth could they spend 12 million quid on ?


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## MntnMan62 (23 Jun 2020)

Inertia said:


> I only hope lessons are learned for next time.  With better handling and, now with experience, we *should *do better.
> 
> I'm really not hopeful they will do better next time though, they really are poorer than I could have imagined, and that's a depressing thought.



The only way lessons can be learned is if one is willing to admit that mistakes were made. I don't see anyone admitting anyting of the sort and in fact our idiot in chief has doubled down on his denial of mistakes by saying that he actually ordered the slowing down of testing. This is not a matter of doing better the next time. Far from it.


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## Inertia (23 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> The only way lessons can be learned is if one is willing to admit that mistakes were made. I don't see anyone admitting anyting of the sort and in fact our idiot in chief has doubled down on his denial of mistakes by saying that he actually ordered the slowing down of testing. This is not a matter of doing better the next time. Far from it.


That's kind of a problem everywhere, people equate admitting mistakes with looking to blame someone. We don't get anywhere unless we learn from errors, noone is perfect. 

I have more respect for someone admitting doing something wrong and, showing how they are going to fix it, than some chancer covering their arse.


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## Tanis8472 (23 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes normal things everyone else as had to do. How it works for each pub lords knows and even with 2M now down to 1M it's still not worth some opening anyway. New rules are coming in to make it easy for pubs to have more outside areas. With a bit of imagination the small pubs could be helped a lot. The big boys will be fine but they are not the once needing help.



2 down to 1 with mitigation and only in certain circumstances 👍


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## Unkraut (23 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> our idiot in chief has doubled down on his denial of mistakes by saying that he actually ordered the slowing down of testing. This is not a matter of doing better the next time.


If you really want to be cheered up, a German virologist said it is only a matter of time before a virus evolves that will kill 10 or 20% of those who contract it, and that the reaction to the current one should be a lesson in how or how not to deal with these pandemics. We can only hope that the West learns from this in much the same way as the Far East, who have coped much better having made their worst mistakes during the earlier virus epidemics.


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## tom73 (23 Jun 2020)

@Unkraut How's it looking in Germany now 2 areas are back in lock down since the 1st large outbreak at the meat factory?


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## rualexander (23 Jun 2020)

Unkraut said:


> .... a German virologist said it is only a matter of time before a virus evolves that will kill 10 or 20% of those who contract it .....



We've already had them, such as SARS1 and MERS, Ebola etc.

So far, viruses which kill large percentages, do not spread as well as those that kill smaller percentages, possibly because they are so deadly and don't get the chance to spread widely before the host is dead.

It may be that SARS-CoV-2 is in the 'sweet spot' of being able to spread widely and kill large numbers.


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## Unkraut (23 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> @Unkraut How's it looking in Germany now 2 areas are back in lock down since the 1st large outbreak at the meat factory?


Needless to say this has been headlines for several days now. The rapid number of infections has jacked up the reproduction rate to R = 2.7, although for the rest of the country I believe it is mostly a bit below 1. There are two areas both meat processing. The TV has shown footage of the larger of the two and the canteen was a disaster waiting to happen. Forget any social distancing. Many of the employees are from eastern Europe and are scattered about in accommodation all over town. The working conditions are not that wonderful, and the social market economy here has been a bit too much market and not enough social.

The state government has reimposed a pretty strict lockdown, though only in the localities concerned.


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## tom73 (23 Jun 2020)

Uk excess deaths now at 65,000.  That trip to pub looking as good a deal now ?
Somehow i can’t see Witty dashing to the pub he was not that happy today. Or willing to play along with Boris.


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## Wobblers (24 Jun 2020)

johnblack said:


> Financially it really has been a disaster that will be with us for years, making the post 2008 financial issues look like a minor blip, the next few years are going to be brutal.



Not having any lockdown - not putting into place any measures to reduce infection - would have resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths. That in of itself would have severe economic consequences, to say nothing of the very real personal costs which would likely touch almost everyone in this country. Furthermore, it's becoming clear that many people take months to recover and many more suffer permanent lung damage. How much do think it would cost the economy, and the NHS, to support possibly hundreds of thousands of permanently damaged invalids?

Add to this that people will stop going to pubs, cinemas, shops, restaurants, work once it becomes clear that the death rate is spiralling out of control (an effect that could already be observed the week before the lockdown was implemented). This also has an economic effect. Not attempting to control the spread of this disease has economic consequences which are likely to be as severe as the lockdown.


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## classic33 (24 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> If you are off to the Pubs, bars and restaurants remember it's not going to be the same of some time.
> Table service indoors, *and owners will be asked to keep contact details of customers to help with contact tracing.
> So that then beings into play data issues and even if some have any way to take the details in the first place.*
> The odd one is placers of worship can open for full Services but no need to recored who go's.


Card payments, wasn't one of the conditions for pubs reopening cashless payments only.


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## Wobblers (24 Jun 2020)

rualexander said:


> We've already had them, such as SARS1 and MERS, Ebola etc.
> 
> So far, viruses which kill large percentages, do not spread as well as those that kill smaller percentages, possibly because they are so deadly and don't get the chance to spread widely before the host is dead.
> 
> It may be that SARS-CoV-2 is in the 'sweet spot' of being able to spread widely and kill large numbers.



We've been lucky, that's all. So far. Take influenza. The part that controls how lethal it is and the part determining how infectious it is are separate parts of its genome, and both may mutate. We've been lucky that a flu virus hasn't evolved that is both highly infectious and lethal. There's been two close misses - bird flu and swine flu. Both were highly lethal to people (20-60% fatality) but weren't able to spread easily. You might remember the furore over bird flu: that was down to the fear that the virus might have ended up infecting someone who already had normal flu, and a chance mixing of viral genomes producing a new virus that was both infectious and highly lethal.

There is no guarantee that the next pandemic (there will be one, it's just a matter of when) will not be worse.


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## Gazjacko (24 Jun 2020)

The measures are designed to expose predominantly young people who are less likely to be hospitalised. This is herd immunity by the backdoor. The rate of infection has slowed significantly and this only helps push the projected 2nd wave further into autumn or worse, winter with the associated strains on the NHS. Getting a few more through it now whilst there’s NHS capacity is a cynical way to serve the economic imperative to get us off support and back paying tax. And if you’re one of the ‘vulnerable’ groups, so be it, you probably, on balance, are a net drain on the economy, costing society at every turn. We (Government) will mourn you for a suitable period but in the end the herd is stronger, back working, paying tax and serving offerings up to our Capitalist god!
Cynical? Yes! 
Those with money thrive on change and turmoil in the markets. There is no ‘crash’ for them. Austerity is something the plebs do. If they lose their home we buy it cheap, we cut their wages “ if you want a job that’s the new pay scale”, if the independent shop goes to the wall the multinational company is there to fill the space, local coffee shop becomes Costa/Starbucks, corner shop, Tesco.
We’re being played for mugs! Even the briefings with their choreographed Q&A sessions. Notice Boris takes the last ( in the memory) ‘good news’ one? Yes he’s been ill, but nothing from him during the height of the deaths so as to minimise association with the omnishambles of a cabinet dealing with something that didn’t just come out of the blue ( they were warned! Pandemic wise years ago, Covid specifically Nov 2019).
Rant over!


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## MntnMan62 (24 Jun 2020)

I'm not sure I understand the concept of herd immunity. Is herd immunity something along the lines of expose everyone, once exposed you have a built in immunity based on the concept that once exposed or once you had the virus you won't get it again? Do I have that right? If I do, clarify this for me. Since this particular virus is one in which humans are NOT developing an immunity to it after exposure or contracting it. All we are seeing is some people get sick and others don't. But the concept of who is acquiring immunity has not been established and in fact studies seem to show that people can contract the virus more than once. So, if I'm correct as to what "herd immunity" is, how exactly does herd immunity help us as a species if building immunity is purely a farce?


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## MntnMan62 (24 Jun 2020)

I have to add that at the beginning of this thing so many idiots kept saying it's not as bad as the common flu. Think on this for a bit. Using US numbers because I happen to live there, there have been 123,475 deaths so far. It hit us in the beginning of March, so that is 3 3/4 months. If you annualize those numbers it works out to an annual estimated death toll of close to 400,000. The common flu kills between 12,000 and 61,000 annually in the US. So please explain to me how the coronavirus is not as bad as the flu. Oh, and the common flu doesn't do a whole lot more than make you vomit for a day or two and have a fever. When you recover, you recover fully. With coronavirus, many people who get sick are left with permanent damage to major organs such as the heart, lungs and respiratory system, kidneys, etc. The flu doesn't do that. What the flock is wrong with people? Are there really this many moronic imbeciles in the US? I guess the answer is yes because look at who we have in the White House.


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## tom73 (24 Jun 2020)

classic33 said:


> Card payments, wasn't one of the conditions for pubs reopening cashless payments only.


That's one of the standard government "if you can" options. Many small pubs still don't take cards though as it stands card payment details alone won‘t meet the requirements. They can’t be used for contact tracing unless the law is changed. It won’t help with the other requirement that only 2 households can eat together.


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## mjr (24 Jun 2020)

classic33 said:


> Card payments, wasn't one of the conditions for pubs reopening cashless payments only.


Would that be legal here? It wasn't abroad when tested in court.

EDIT: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...re-how-cashless-society-harms-most-vulnerable says Rishi hasn't implemented the legal protection for cash that he announced in the budget.


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## PeteXXX (24 Jun 2020)

My daughter received this letter on Monday. It is my grandson's village school, though the next year up. Happily, he has not yet returned there. 







Just as people think things are getting back to 'normal'.
The child who tested positive is Yr1. 6 years old, I believe.


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## roubaixtuesday (24 Jun 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> My daughter received this letter on Monday. It is my grandson's village school, though the next year up. Happily, he has not yet returned there.
> 
> View attachment 532054
> 
> ...



The estimated rate of infection is one in 1700 people. With those numbers, dependent on size of course, any school will have a reasonable chance of having an infected pupil or teacher.


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## PeteXXX (24 Jun 2020)

It is a small village school. I don't know exactly how many pupils, but there's only 3 years, In pods, back so far.


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## tom73 (24 Jun 2020)

Locally we've had at least 3 school's with cases in the wider area at least 3 others have had to close.


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## DaveReading (24 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Since this particular virus is one in which humans are NOT developing an immunity to it after exposure or contracting it.



That may or may not be true. We simply don't know yet.


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## Johnno260 (24 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Uk excess deaths now at 65,000.  That trip to pub looking as good a deal now ?
> Somehow i can’t see Witty dashing to the pub he was not that happy today. Or willing to play along with Boris.



I can't see the point, if I want a beer I can get some with my shopping order.

Look at the 1918 pandemic the 2nd wave was devastating.


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## Algarvecycling (24 Jun 2020)

McWobble said:


> Not having any lockdown - not putting into place any measures to reduce infection - would have resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths. That in of itself would have severe economic consequences, to say nothing of the very real personal costs which would likely touch almost everyone in this country. Furthermore, it's becoming clear that many people take months to recover and many more suffer permanent lung damage. How much do think it would cost the economy, and the NHS, to support possibly hundreds of thousands of permanently damaged invalids?
> 
> Add to this that people will stop going to pubs, cinemas, shops, restaurants, work once it becomes clear that the death rate is spiralling out of control (an effect that could already be observed the week before the lockdown was implemented). This also has an economic effect. Not attempting to control the spread of this disease has economic consequences which are likely to be as severe as the lockdown.



Indeed, this is the point most seem to miss, that while the deaths are bad and would have been worse, the numbers of sick that would result from no protective measures at all would be overwhelming for the healthcare services and have severe knock-on effects for those with other ailments needing treatment. It isn't like 'flu where Bob in Accounts would take a week and then be back, he could be gone for 2 - 4 weeks or more and still have issues afterwards. His month out of action is bad for his employer and ergo the economy. Multiply that exponentially by all those who don't die but need time to recover and the economy potentially would be worse off than it is! At least under lockdown some business could continue and cogs could turn. This is what is not understood and why the World's Leaders have taken this so seriously. Collapse Healthcare and combine that with a large number of off sick and the country would be in dire trouble. It's short-term pain vs long-term pain. There is no pleasant choice. 

I fear Brazil and parts of the USA are going to demonstrate just what happens when Leaders decide to ignore the virus. Until a cure is found, we have to learn to live with this and adapt to rolling control measures. Here in the Algarve region of Portugal, we have an excellent record so far, just over 500 known infected and 15 deaths. Amazing really, but the locals took this very seriously early. Masks, social distancing etc. 
However, a group of youngsters decided to have a large party recently and within days, 76 new infections all from that party. The virus is living amongst us. It is ready to spread like wildfire. We have to keep a lid on it or risk huge harm to our society. The young unaffected? They can and do die from this, albeit at far less risk but they too can get badly ill and that in itself is not pleasant. It is a numbers game and it actually doesn't take massive numbers to create major disruptions and result in tragic costs. Flippancy over percentage amounts sadly only turns into real numbers when directly affected for many.


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## Moon bunny (24 Jun 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I can't see the point, if I want a beer I can get some with my shopping order....


The point is man is a social animal, and, like it or not, many peoples‘ social lives revolve around pubs. Remove that human contact and all sorts of mental difficulties arise, it isn’t simply all about the beer. I got my present job indirectly through someone I met in a pub.


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## tom73 (24 Jun 2020)

Royal Colleges now calling for a rethink and the need to prepare for second wave. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53159918


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## Tanis8472 (24 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Would that be legal here? It wasn't abroad when tested in court.
> 
> EDIT: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...re-how-cashless-society-harms-most-vulnerable says Rishi hasn't implemented the legal protection for cash that he announced in the budget.



Ah, but we've taken back control of our laws haven't we


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## Johnno260 (24 Jun 2020)

Moon bunny said:


> The point is man is a social animal, and, like it or not, many peoples‘ social lives revolve around pubs. Remove that human contact and all sorts of mental difficulties arise, it isn’t simply all about the beer. I got my present job indirectly through someone I met in a pub.


Less social interaction if a 2nd lockdown is imposed, or if you're lying in a hospital bed.

Issue with bars and pubs after a few drinks and peoples inhibitions are down being 1m apart wont be a thing.


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## Algarvecycling (24 Jun 2020)

Moon bunny said:


> The point is man is a social animal, and, like it or not, many peoples‘ social lives revolve around pubs. Remove that human contact and all sorts of mental difficulties arise, it isn’t simply all about the beer. I got my present job indirectly through someone I met in a pub.



This is absolutely true and therefore needs a solution. I think indoor Pub life is more a scene in cooler climes but in the hot countries I grew up in and now live in again, the social venues are similar but outdoors and, nowadays, less risky. For those who rely upon Pubs for their main social interactions, something does need to be done and from I've read measures are being adopted to lower risk but as another Poster correctly pointed out, too much alcohol and those measures are more difficult to adhere to and enforce. 

This is an example of where a culture that considers excess drinking acceptable and even sport, fails. I couldn't stand going to anything other than gastro pubs in the UK precisely due to the numbers of folk who thought getting drunk was fun. For me, alcohol is to be enjoyed but to still recall the evening the morning after and not suffer from any after-effects.  Far too many of my colleagues would describe their perfect night out as one they couldn't remember.  In COVID times, that is just not wise and could lead to Landlords being forced to close when more measured behaviour might see them remain open for the benefit of all. Time will tell, I guess, as to just how mature the population behaves.


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## DaveReading (24 Jun 2020)

I've never been a fan of the expression "between a rock and a hard place", but I'm forced to admit that it's a pretty good description of where we are now.

And while we're recycling cliches, I can't see even the faintest glimmer of light at the end of this particular tunnel.


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## roubaixtuesday (24 Jun 2020)

DaveReading said:


> I've never been a fan of the expression "between a rock and a hard place", but I'm forced to admit that it's a pretty good description of where we are now.
> 
> And while we're recycling cliches, I can't see even the faintest glimmer of light at the end of this particular tunnel.



Optimists perspective: I don't think it's that bad. China, New Zealand, South Korea have all proved its possible to control the virus. Germany has done a great job closer to home, as has Greece. 

Treatment is already better understood. 

Vaccine research is going faster than anyone would have thought possible. 

Younger people are not so badly affected. 

With a clear and well executed strategy we can get on top of this.


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## Adam4868 (24 Jun 2020)

Pubs,you should only go if it's essential drinking and you can't drink from home...as much as I miss them i think I'll give next weekend a swerve


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## tom73 (24 Jun 2020)

The guidelines on pub ect use the term "visitor economy" 

"The visitor economy is much broader than tourism and encompasses all staying and non-staying visitors and the activities and expenditure involved in supplying products and services for visitors by both the private and public sectors.
The visitor economy also encompasses a multitude of different working environments, from outdoor paid for attractions like theme parks to indoor attractions like stately homes or planetariums.
It also includes a variety of activities and events which take place at hotels, convention and exhibition centres and conference halls and meeting rooms."

They go to say they have to have pre-booking, collecting and holding contact information for 21 day. 
So basically anything not open at the moment and in future you're going to need to book and give your details. 
Some of the small placers just won't be able to open at all they won't break even.


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## Tanis8472 (24 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Optimists perspective: I don't think it's that bad. China, New Zealand, South Korea have all proved its possible to control the virus. Germany has done a great job closer to home, as has Greece.
> 
> Treatment is already better understood.
> 
> ...



Shame we have Johnson and his murderous cabal at the helm.


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## roubaixtuesday (24 Jun 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Shame we have Johnson and his murderous cabal at the helm.



Yeah. I did say it was an optimists perspective...


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## tom73 (24 Jun 2020)

Whitty is no lap dog it's often what's not pick up on and reported that say's all you need know. 
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...tty-diverged-from-uk-government-line-covid-19


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## MntnMan62 (24 Jun 2020)

DaveReading said:


> That may or may not be true. We simply don't know yet.



No, we DO know that immunity is not being seen. Many people are getting the virus more than once. Fact.


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## roubaixtuesday (24 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> No, we DO know that immunity is not being seen. Many people are getting the virus more than once. Fact.



As this is a fact, you'll be able to provide a link to a reputable source rather than just assert it.


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## MntnMan62 (24 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> As this is a fact, you'll be able to provide a link to a reputable source rather than just assert it.



I can't seem to find any scientific articles that confirm what I've said. However, the basis for my statement was what took place on a US Navy ship.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your...sevelt-sailors-re-test-positive-for-covid-19/


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## midlife (24 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I can't seem to find any scientific articles that confirm what I've said. However, the basis for my statement was what took place on a US Navy ship.
> 
> https://www.navytimes.com/news/your...sevelt-sailors-re-test-positive-for-covid-19/



I believe that the positive tests were non-viable viral genomic material on dead lung cells. Now I'l going to have to find the source...


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## MntnMan62 (24 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> I believe that the positive tests were non-viable viral genomic material on dead lung cells. Now I'l going to have to find the source...



I guess my "fact" is turning out to be conjecture on my part. The real answer is they don't know yet if there is immunity once you have the virus. They speculate that there could be short term immunity but don't really know. So I stand corrected. I did read that in Japan and China they were investigating the recurrence of the virus in some people but the results of those investigations haven't been reported.


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## All uphill (24 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I guess my "fact" is turning out to be conjecture on my part. The real answer is they don't know yet if there is immunity once you have the virus. They speculate that there could be short term immunity but don't really know. So I stand corrected. I did read that in Japan and China they were investigating the recurrence of the virus in some people but the results of those investigations haven't been reported.


Well done @MntnMan62 for acknowledging that. It doesn't often happen here!


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## midlife (24 Jun 2020)

Polite e-mail reminder from my employer today to keep more than 2m apart....... (below)

Yesterday the Government eased the 2m rule for social distancing enabling the distance to be 1m plus if 2m is not possible. Here at **** we are still recommending 2m where at all possible which is what we are operating at now. This is because 2m gives better safeguarding and the safety of staff and patients is our highest priority.

We have also had a reminder that we must not gather in groups larger than 2.


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## roubaixtuesday (24 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I can't seem to find any scientific articles that confirm what I've said. However, the basis for my statement was what took place on a US Navy ship.
> 
> https://www.navytimes.com/news/your...sevelt-sailors-re-test-positive-for-covid-19/



Right. So _" we DO know that immunity is not being seen. Many people are getting the virus more than once. "_ is not a fact at all it turns out. At the most it seems that you can support something like _"people once infected may continue to return positive tests for a period of time, even after returning negative tests". _There are many reasons other than getting the virus more than once which could cause this.

On the other hand

_"Dr Joshua Schiffer, an expert in infectious diseases at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in the US, added that any signs of reinfection would require detailed scrutiny.
“I have yet to see a definitive case of reinfection reported in the scientific literature [to date]"_

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...irus-twice-what-we-know-about-covid-19-so-far


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## roubaixtuesday (24 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I guess my "fact" is turning out to be conjecture on my part. The real answer is they don't know yet if there is immunity once you have the virus. They speculate that there could be short term immunity but don't really know. So I stand corrected. I did read that in Japan and China they were investigating the recurrence of the virus in some people but the results of those investigations haven't been reported.



We crossed. Kudos for your response here.


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## Joey Shabadoo (24 Jun 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/andydewsbury/status/1275401124963639296


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## AndyRM (24 Jun 2020)

A friend of mine owns a small restaurant in Darlington, she shared this, which I think is pretty spot on:

While I understand everyone’s excitement at yesterday’s announcement that bars and restaurants can reopen from 4th July- can I just remind everyone to proceed with caution. I’m sure you all will! But I feel some are getting swept up in excitement thinking everything is returning to how it was- IT ISN’T!!

As a restaurant owner myself, I am taking the decision to protect my staff and customers and remain take out only, at least for the time being. 

Firstly, there a potentially deadly virus still in general circulation, and I do not want to be responsible for encouraging the spread of it in any way. I do not want to encourage people to leave their homes unnecessarily and mix with other households just to enjoy our food- they can do this much more safely in their own homes as they have for the past few months.

Secondly- and this is where I believe people aren’t thinking about it- in the guidance published by the government, restaurants have a responsibility to ensure guests don’t mix in groups of more than 2 households. (Do we want that responsibility? How will it be enforced?) We also have to record details of everyone who visits- presumably to provide information to the track and trace service. So, if any customer tests positive within 2 weeks of visiting the restaurant all our staff will have to self-isolate for 2 weeks? Is that practical? I reckon restaurants will have to close almost straight away in many cases due to staff shortages!

Just a word of caution to restaurant owners, before you spend money getting your restaurants ready to open in a week and a half- is it worth it? Not just financially, but ethically too?

I think not!


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## Joey Shabadoo (24 Jun 2020)

In Scotland it's the law that everyone going on a bus has to wear a face mask. Nicola Sturgeon told us this in no uncertain terms. Yesterday someone got on a bus in Glasgow and was shocked to see virtually nobody was wearing a mask. He asked the driver about it and was told it was company policy not to challenge people about masks because they may have an underlying medical condition.

So today I've been paying attention to the buses that stop outside my window. Yup. Very few masks.

What's the point?

The idea that people are going to hand over accurate contact details in pubs on a Saturday night is ludicrous.

It's not going to happen.


----------



## tom73 (24 Jun 2020)

More new cases look to be happening all over the world in placers that have unlocked. The current hot bed here looks to be meat and food factories with 2 more today. Add in pictures of packed out seasides yet again all before the 4th July madness and it’s not looking good.


----------



## Gazjacko (24 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I'm not sure I understand the concept of herd immunity. Is herd immunity something along the lines of expose everyone, once exposed you have a built in immunity based on the concept that once exposed or once you had the virus you won't get it again? Do I have that right? If I do, clarify this for me. Since this particular virus is one in which humans are NOT developing an immunity to it after exposure or contracting it. All we are seeing is some people get sick and others don't. But the concept of who is acquiring immunity has not been established and in fact studies seem to show that people can contract the virus more than once. So, if I'm correct as to what "herd immunity" is, how exactly does herd immunity help us as a species if building immunity is purely a farce?


As far as I’m aware there’s no documented case of anyone getting Covid twice...........yet


----------



## MntnMan62 (24 Jun 2020)

Gazjacko said:


> As far as I’m aware there’s no documented case of anyone getting Covid twice...........yet



I believe the US Navy ship had some repeat cases. But I won’t go back and re-read the article.


----------



## mjr (24 Jun 2020)

AndyRM said:


> A friend of mine owns a small restaurant in Darlington, she shared this,


The post does not seem to be public. Are you sure you had permission to repost it here?


----------



## mjr (24 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Add in pictures of packed out seasides yet again all before the 4th July madness and it’s not looking good.


You mean packed socially distanced beaches like have produced no detectable spikes yet? I'd worry much more about the packers.


----------



## AndyRM (24 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> The post does not seem to be public. Are you sure you had permission to repost it here?



Yes.


----------



## Adam4868 (24 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> You mean packed socially distanced beaches like have produced no detectable spikes yet? I'd worry much more about the packers.


To be fair I've been working in central Blackpool for the last week and the lockdowns finished.Even more so the last couple of days with the good weather.Promenade and beach today was packed.


----------



## classic33 (25 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> In Scotland it's the law that everyone going on a bus has to wear a face mask. Nicola Sturgeon told us this in no uncertain terms. Yesterday someone got on a bus in Glasgow and was shocked to see virtually nobody was wearing a mask. He asked the driver about it and was told it was company policy not to challenge people about masks because they may have an underlying medical condition.
> 
> So today I've been paying attention to the buses that stop outside my window. Yup. Very few masks.
> 
> ...


FirstBus have the following download from their site





The idea being you print off the one you need and show it to the driver(s), who aren't allowed at present, to turn passengers off the bus for not having a face covering.


----------



## Wobblers (25 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I guess my "fact" is turning out to be conjecture on my part. The real answer is they don't know yet if there is immunity once you have the virus. They speculate that there could be short term immunity but don't really know. So I stand corrected. I did read that in Japan and China they were investigating the recurrence of the virus in some people but the results of those investigations haven't been reported.



There was a study investigating this very thing in South Korea. There has been a pattern where people who're recuperating from CV-19 have tested negative, but positive at a later test. The investigators concluded that what such observations were not caused by new infections, but the test detecting non-viable fragments of the virus left over from the illness. 

It's discussed on the Medcram youtube channel here. Medcram is the best resource on CV-19 I've found on youtube, and it's well worth going through some of the videos that have been posted.


----------



## MntnMan62 (25 Jun 2020)

Ok folks. I just read that new Covid-19 cases have just soared to a new single day record since the beginning of this thing. That can’t be explained away by saying more testing is being done. I’d say donald j. drumpf is doing a remarkable job of killing off people. And given people’s attitudes about social distancing and wearing masks I’d bet that most of the cases are drumpf supporters. Natural Selection at work here. You hear that Charles Darwin? You were right!


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (25 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I believe the US Navy ship had some repeat cases. But I won’t go back and re-read the article.



The article said "Whether the five afflicted sailors were reinfected or still had the virus after multiple negative tests remains under investigation. "


----------



## MntnMan62 (25 Jun 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> The article said "Whether the five afflicted sailors were reinfected or still had the virus after multiple negative tests remains under investigation. "



We are well past that at this point. Read my earlier post. I’ll only concede once. Not over and over.


----------



## Salty seadog (25 Jun 2020)




----------



## tom73 (25 Jun 2020)

Australia has 34 new cases over night hot spot being Victoria. So they send in the Army to sort the logistics and help with testing. 
Along with 1,300 officials to do door to door testing. “Rather than waiting for an unsustainable number of community transmission to become known, we are going to go literally door-to-door, we are bringing the public health response to your doorstep,” said Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews. 
In the mean time over here .....


----------



## Johnno260 (25 Jun 2020)

I would argue at this point the "re-infected" are possible a case of bad kits or in-correct testing as both these things have happened.

Until science can prove the case.


----------



## mjr (25 Jun 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I would argue at this point the "re-infected" are possible a case of bad kits or in-correct testing as both these things have happened.
> 
> Until science can prove the case.


I thought the incorrect tests were almost all false negatives?

We need to wait for the science to prove immunity or reinfection. Hopefully it'll be figured out soon.


----------



## marinyork (25 Jun 2020)

Immunologist writes for the guardian, of interest to some

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...t-antibody-tests-covid-19-immuity-coronavirus


----------



## Beebo (25 Jun 2020)

The daily press conferences have been cancelled. How can we hold the government to account now. It’s as if they want us to believe the whole thing is over. 
It’s completely irresponsible and is almost guaranteed to lead to a second wave.


----------



## tom73 (25 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> The daily press conferences have been cancelled. How can we hold the government to account now. It’s as if they want us to believe the whole thing is over.
> It’s completely irresponsible and is almost guaranteed to lead to a second wave.


Is that not what we pay the rest of clowns in the big top to do?.... Oh hang on that's part of the problem


----------



## midlife (25 Jun 2020)

I’m stood in the queue for my antibody test, outside and it’s blooming hot !!


----------



## Mugshot (25 Jun 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/Tobias_Ellwood/status/1276152218819989508?s=20


----------



## Rusty Nails (25 Jun 2020)

Mugshot said:


> View: https://twitter.com/Tobias_Ellwood/status/1276152218819989508?s=20




This is the sort of herd stupidity that led me, on the Trump thread which was criticising people in the US for ignoring the facemask recommendations, to say that we are not in a position to criticise as we have enough idiots of our own in the UK.


----------



## Edwardoka (25 Jun 2020)

Mugshot said:


> View: https://twitter.com/Tobias_Ellwood/status/1276152218819989508?s=20



The country has real "last days of the Roman Empire" energy right now.
Where's Attila the Hun when you need him?


----------



## MntnMan62 (25 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> This is the sort of herd stupidity that led me, on the Trump thread which was criticising people in the US for ignoring the facemask recommendations, to say that we are not in a position to criticise as we have enough idiots of our own in the UK.



For sure. Plenty of idiots on the entire planet. But the US likes to claim it is the place of innovation, excellence and the home of the "American Dream". That is no longer the case and hasn't been for 3 3/4 years.


----------



## Beebo (25 Jun 2020)

I have friends who live in Poole. They are unable to use their local beach because of this nonsense. It just isn’t fair on the local community. 
They have been doing volunteer work cleaning up Durdle Door. The stories they tell are eye watering.


----------



## RoadRider400 (25 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> I have friends who live in Poole. They are unable to use their local beach because of this nonsense. It just isn’t fair on the local community.
> They have been doing volunteer work cleaning up Durdle Door. The stories they tell are eye watering.


So local residents should have priotity use of beaches because they live near them? What about the poor peasants who live in city suburbs? Talk about entitlement.


----------



## Beebo (25 Jun 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> So local residents should have priotity use of beaches because they live near them? What about the poor peasants who live in city suburbs? Talk about entitlement.


I would say yes, during this time when we are still under lockdown and social distancing rules. 
people should be trying to stay nearer to home. The scenes on the beach are terrible.


----------



## Edwardoka (25 Jun 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> So local residents should have priotity use of beaches because they live near them? What about the poor peasants who live in city suburbs? Talk about entitlement.


Yes, since they pay council tax in the area, they'll be the ones footing the bill for the cost of policing and emergency services, as well as the cleanup.

And that's before mentioning the human cost that will be incurred by the locals due to a massive group of selfish nobbers converging on their town from all over the place while there's a highly infectious disease active in the community.

Not to mention, of course, the extra problems caused when aforementioned selfish nobbers disperse at the end of the day to spread their new pathogenic chums within their own local areas.


----------



## fossyant (25 Jun 2020)

Who in their right mind thinks a beach like that is fun at the best of times.. hate them. If I saw that, I'd turn round, virus or not. I don't do that on holiday abroad.


----------



## MntnMan62 (25 Jun 2020)

I agree as well. Social distancing is critical and, while there may be some conflicting information related to the efficacy of wearing a mask and who a mask actually protects, people should be wearing masks when out in public and where social distancing is not possible. That is actually the order signed by our NJ Governor. The problem is that local governments are apparently unwilling to enforce the order. In my town a group that is not from our town is holding a one on one basketball tournament in one of our parks. And tons and tons of people are showing up and crowding the park. I've seen pictures and hundres of people are huddled around the court so they can see the games. And NO ONE is wearing masks in the pictures I've seen. Not a single person, other than a police officer. When people started to complain about large numbers of people not observing social distancing rules, the Mayor chimed in and actually explained the whole thing away. He cited the Governor's Order and incorrectly stated that social distancing and wearing masks are only "recommendations, not requirements. He appeared to be siding with the idea of just letting them have their fun. That just made people even more angry, including me, and he came back with a second announcement saying that he reached out to the organizers of the tournament and they are going to follow social distancing protocols and encourage people to wear masks. I'll believe it when I see it. But the fact that the Mayor's first instinct is to go against common sense and is unwilling to be the leader he was elected to be is just disgusting. I have other problems with him on other matters but it's not relevant to this discussion.


----------



## classic33 (25 Jun 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> So local residents should have priotity use of beaches because they live near them? What about the poor peasants who live in city suburbs? Talk about entitlement.


I'd say yes. I've areas near me, which until the middle of March, I'd seldom have given a second thought about using. Since that time, I've stayed away. It's well within a mile of home, nice area for walking/cycling in. But there's others living closer, and I don't feel it would be fair on those living closer/in the area for me to go there. Others, from further away disagree, they want to use the countryside whatever those living there feel.


----------



## Rusty Nails (25 Jun 2020)

fossyant said:


> Who in their right mind thinks a beach like that is fun at the best of times.. hate them. If I saw that, I'd turn round, virus or not. I don't do that on holiday abroad.



Did you see the people they interviewed on Bournemouth beach today.

Not the sharpest knives.....


----------



## CanucksTraveller (25 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Did you see the people they interviewed on Bournemouth beach today.
> 
> Not the sharpest knives.....


The walking tattooed muscle? He was priceless. 
"Look at all this, madness innit?" he asked with zero irony intended. This is the kind of guy who sits in his van moaning about traffic, not quite grasping that he *is* traffic. 

It's the reason I'm not going anywhere near a pub for a few weeks at least, possibly months.


----------



## tom73 (25 Jun 2020)

Whitty is not happy either 

View: https://twitter.com/cmo_england/status/1276199449858015235?s=21


----------



## fossyant (25 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Did you see the people they interviewed on Bournemouth beach today.
> 
> Not the sharpest knives.....



No because I've finished work from the shed, chilled out, ordered a take away my daughter wanted (they left half) and sat in the garden - I've seen loads of pics.

I'll be back at my caravan in Wales in mid July, but I'll be staying at the van, or walking a mile to the beach - because no-one walks a mile to a beach. If there are too many folk, I'll head back. TBH we were doing this in March in Wales - everyone staying distant. 

Even in normal times, if it's busy, I will turn round. The beach near out van is empty even on busy weekends as there is a 'walk' to it - like 20 minutes through lovely sand dunes. it's ace !


----------



## Rusty Nails (25 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Whitty is not happy either
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/cmo_england/status/1276199449858015235?s=21




Not a man for overstatement is Whitty.

Difficult to tell if he's happy or not.


----------



## fossyant (25 Jun 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Not a man for overstatement is Whitty.
> 
> Difficult to tell if he's happy or not.



The lot of them do need public speaker training.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (25 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> I would say yes, during this time when we are still under lockdown and social distancing rules.



England isn’t in lockdown. Not by a long way. Metre plus is social distancing, Ha ha ha.


----------



## Edwardoka (25 Jun 2020)

Unfortunately Scotland has failed to avoid the madness, although to a lesser extent than the Ayia Napa of Dorset.
Kelvingrove Park was overrun today, the police had to get involved


----------



## MntnMan62 (25 Jun 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> The walking tattooed muscle? He was priceless.
> "Look at all this, madness innit?" he asked with zero irony intended. This is the kind of guy who sits in his van moaning about traffic, not quite grasping that he *is* traffic.
> 
> It's the reason I'm not going anywhere near a pub for a few weeks at least, possibly months.


Pubs are only enjoyable when there are some people there to hang with and bs about stuff. Or if there is some pool to be played or darts to be thrown. Otherwise, nothing wrong with having a friend over to the house, break out a bottle of single malt and sit in the back garden or deck while socially distancing and getting snockered. And it’s cheaper too.


----------



## brodiej (26 Jun 2020)

US positive tests now higher than at any time in the whole pandemic for 2 days running and rising fast







Part of this could be more testing but hospitalisation also seems to be rising in several states eg Arizona and Texas below. Good data is not available for much of the US











Some Americans seem reassured by the mortality curve not spiking up but it surely will in a couple of weeks 🙁


----------



## pawl (26 Jun 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> So local residents should have priotity use of beaches because they live near them? What about the poor peasants who live in city suburbs? Talk about entitlement.



I understand people traveled from the midlands to Poole and Bournemouth.Cant think of anything worse than sitting in a car for god knows now long just to sit on a jam packed beach.

Just seen on the news Matt Hancock is warning we will close beaches if public don’t social distance.


----------



## Adam4868 (26 Jun 2020)

Hold on a minute did Johnson not say he wanted to see bustle and activity ?


----------



## Edwardoka (26 Jun 2020)

pawl said:


> I understand people traveled from the midlands to Poole and Bournemouth.Cant think of anything worse than sitting in a car for god knows now long just to sit on a jam packed beach.
> 
> Just seen on the news Matt Hancock is warning we will close beaches if public don’t social distance.


"We may have no option but to re-bolt the stable door," says Matt Hancock as horse enters orbit of Alpha Centauri.


----------



## All uphill (26 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Pubs are only enjoyable when there are some people there to hang with and bs about stuff. Or if there is some pool to be played or darts to be thrown. Otherwise, nothing wrong with having a friend over to the house, break out a bottle of single malt and sit in the back garden or deck while socially distancing and getting snockered. And it’s cheaper too.


For you. A busy pub is something I'd go a long way to avoid.

Funny how different people are.


----------



## Mugshot (26 Jun 2020)

Cold War Steve


----------



## randynewmanscat (26 Jun 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> The country has real "last days of the Roman Empire" energy right now.
> Where's Attila the Hun when you need him?


The IMF will have to stand in as Attila.


----------



## Beebo (26 Jun 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> England isn’t in lockdown. Not by a long way. Metre plus is social distancing, Ha ha ha.


We are still in lockdown. It just stupid people have listen to the idiotic government and cherrypicked the advice they want to hear. 

If you are on furlough because it’s too dangerous to go to work how can it be safe to crowd on a beach?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Jun 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/missmonikasmith/status/1276015736209592321

Full thread is worth reading


----------



## tom73 (26 Jun 2020)

The US look about to be losing it all again states are reporting some real concerting new case numbers. One already at 97% critical care bed capacity. Many look to be stoping plans to unlock. total caesura numbers have now toped 20 million. Experts believe the real figure is 10 times that reported. It should ring arms bells here and make people think but sadly it won't the public just like the government now clearly look to bored with all and have moved on they just want t get to pub. I'm sure covid will be along offering free rounds to them all.


----------



## vickster (26 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> We are still in lockdown. It just stupid people have listen to the idiotic government and cherrypicked the advice they want to hear.
> 
> If you are on furlough because it’s too dangerous to go to work how can it be safe to crowd on a beach?


Lots of businesses are still closed


----------



## Rezillo (26 Jun 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Mrs R and I were discussing a couple of days ago the curious silence from the science advisors over the last week and the contrast with the week before when there were clear signs of unrest from them over the speed of the end of lockdown.
> 
> We wondered if they had been shut up, perhaps by warnings of total economic collapse for extending or renewing lockdown and that whatever happened next, Johnson has made it clear it would have to be lived with somehow but not by shutting down the economy.
> 
> ...



....and so it continues.

Westminster briefing today - it's up to councils to control beach numbers. How on earth do they do that with hundreds of thousands of people coming from all over the country? What led to people doing that in the first place?

Its' a blame-shifting exercise away from Cumming's 'ignore lockdown' example and Johnson's over-rapid lockdown easing being the triggers of all of this. I wonder if we'll hear from the SAGE behavioural analysts as to if they consider government messaging responsible?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (26 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> We are still in lockdown. It just stupid people have listen to the idiotic government and cherrypicked the advice they want to hear.
> 
> If you are on furlough because it’s too dangerous to go to work how can it be safe to crowd on a beach?



Lockdown to me, means you can’t leave house for specific reasons and that time outside must be limited. That is not the case in England. Yes some business can’t open yet but unless you work for them or use their services it is no different to normal.

England

Drive anywhere you like, at any time - yes allowed
Spent as much time outside as you want doing what you want - yes allowed
meet unlimited people outside - yes allowed if you didn’t plan it
meet unlimited people in shop - Yep no problem

It‘s not exactly what you'd call lockdown anymore.


----------



## MntnMan62 (26 Jun 2020)

All uphill said:


> For you. A busy pub is something I'd go a long way to avoid.
> 
> Funny how different people are.



Well, "busy" isn't in my description of a good pub. I'd prefer to hang out in a pub where I can sit at the large wooden bar with a friend or three and no one sitting anywhere near us, essentially having the place to ourselves essentially. I avoid crowded places in general. People around here love to flock to the beach in the summer. I despise the beach in the summer because I ........ wait for it........hate people.  I much prefer heading up to the mountains to escape the crowds and enjoy the solitude on a mountain lake.


----------



## johnblack (26 Jun 2020)

Interesting news reported today in The Times that the death rate for coronavirus patients in English hospitals has fallen to a quarter of the level at the peak of the outbreak, but they don't really know why the proportion has dropped so much.


----------



## Beebo (26 Jun 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Lockdown to me, means you can’t leave house for specific reasons and that time outside must be limited. That is not the case in England. Yes some business can’t open yet but unless you work for them or use their services it is no different to normal.
> 
> England
> 
> ...


Crazy isn’t it. 
Stay Alert and use your common sense. 
Not seeing much of that anywhere. 

I can’t wait to witness the common sense on Saturday 4th July when the pubs reopen.


----------



## Rezillo (26 Jun 2020)

johnblack said:


> Interesting news reported today in The Times that the death rate for coronavirus patients in English hospitals has fallen to a quarter of the level at the peak of the outbreak, but they don't really know why the proportion has dropped so much.



One explanation might be that those who are most vulnerable are still largely observing lockdown, such that admissions are now weighted to those who are deemed less vulnerable and in a better position to cope with the disease. 

It will be interesting to see what the experts come up with.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (26 Jun 2020)

I reckon BrewDog will release a stupidly strong beer called Common Sense, to cash in the way they did with Dom's eyesight testing road trip.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (26 Jun 2020)

Rezillo said:


> One explanation might be that those who are most vulnerable are still largely observing lockdown, such that admissions are now weighted to those who are deemed less vulnerable and in a better position to cope with the disease.
> 
> It will be interesting to see what the experts come up with.


Could it have something to do with a lowering of this viral load thing? (Which I don't pretend to have understood.)


----------



## midlife (26 Jun 2020)

johnblack said:


> Interesting news reported today in The Times that the death rate for coronavirus patients in English hospitals has fallen to a quarter of the level at the peak of the outbreak, but they don't really know why the proportion has dropped so much.



Could be that hospitals are like ghost towns at the moment and have been for a while. If there are no old / frail / vulnerable patients in hospital to catch COVID-19 then I guess the mortality rate goes down? That and maybe management is better.


----------



## marinyork (26 Jun 2020)

On the US stuff. 

9000 new confirmed cases in just one day in Florida. For a third of the UK population size.

It has closed it's bars immediately in response.


----------



## MntnMan62 (26 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> On the US stuff.
> 
> 9000 new confirmed cases in just one day in Florida. For a third of the UK population size.
> 
> It has closed it's bars immediately in response.



I'm completely baffled by the level of stupidity of US politicians. Everyone was clamoring to "open up" even though nothing had changed. There was no vaccine and there was no new information with which to treat the virus. All we had was some reduced levels of infection that was a result of lockdowns and people generally observing social distancing and mask wearing protocols. Then someone magically decides things are good and we can start opening up again. Why????? What changed????? NOTHING!!!! Generally speaking stupidity of poiticians is fairly innocuous. But this time it is costing people's lives and their heath (for those who get sick but end up with permanent damage to major organs). I'm sorry but this all amounts to serious levels of incompetence and gross negligence. Bankers in the US are bound to their fiduciary duty on behalf of their clients and if they make poor decisions that amount to the same incompetence and gross negligence, they lose their jobs and can be fined and even imprisoned. I believe the same standards apply to politicians and so too should the punishment. Incompetence and gross negligence are the only terms that accurately desribe the decision making of drumpf and his administration. He is guilty of both refusing to take appropriate action and making dangerous decisions which led to improper action. He belongs in prison and he should be made to pay financially for his ridiculously bad decisions. I'd love to see class action lawsuits filed against him for his handling of lots of things in addition to the pandemic.


----------



## DaveReading (26 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I'm completely baffled by the level of stupidity of US politicians. Everyone was clamoring to "open up" even though nothing had changed. There was no vaccine and there was no new information with which to treat the virus. All we had was some reduced levels of infection that was a result of lockdowns and people generally observing social distancing and mask wearing protocols. Then someone magically decides things are good and we can start opening up again. Why????? What changed????? NOTHING!!!!



You could substitute "UK" instead of "US" in the above and pretty well all of it would be equally true.


----------



## mjr (26 Jun 2020)

pawl said:


> Just seen on the news Matt Hancock is warning we will close beaches if public don’t social distance.


I think I don't believe that. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rising-seas-threaten-nearly-half-of-uks-beaches-cw8mcmxr6 makes me think there's over 3200 miles of beaches (edit: because that's only sandy ones). https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2019 and https://www.statista.com/statistics/877540/leading-police-forces-by-officer-numbers-in-the-uk/ makes me think there's about 126'000 frontline police. 

So even if evenly distributed and they've no other work, can 4 officers close each mile of beach?    It's shoot and Hancock must know it.


----------



## MntnMan62 (26 Jun 2020)

Ok. Getting more and more angry here. It's now official. The State of Florida no has more cases of coronavirus than all of Canada.


----------



## randynewmanscat (26 Jun 2020)

Beebo said:


> We are still in lockdown. It just stupid people have listen to the idiotic government and cherrypicked the advice they want to hear.
> 
> If you are on furlough because it’s too dangerous to go to work how can it be safe to crowd on a beach?


It is sad, no doubt that not everyone was going to take this health crisis seriously enough but the pictures I saw of the beaches show a concentration of dim witted. An incubator on sand.


----------



## randynewmanscat (26 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Well, "busy" isn't in my description of a good pub. I'd prefer to hang out in a pub where I can sit at the large wooden bar with a friend or three and no one sitting anywhere near us, essentially having the place to ourselves essentially. I avoid crowded places in general. People around here love to flock to the beach in the summer. I despise the beach in the summer because I ........ wait for it........hate people.  I much prefer heading up to the mountains to escape the crowds and enjoy the solitude on a mountain lake.


You ain't like any US citizen I have met. You should gain honorary British citizenship for reserved behaviour.


----------



## mjr (26 Jun 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> It is sad, no doubt that not everyone was going to take this health crisis seriously enough but the pictures I saw of the beaches show a concentration of dim witted. An incubator on sand.


Have there been any confirmed open air transmissions yet?

I think the beach hate is being manufactured to distract from the true culprits.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Have there been any confirmed open air transmissions yet?
> 
> I think the beach hate is being manufactured to distract from the true culprits.


The French?


----------



## stowie (26 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> One already at 97% critical care bed capacity.



I think this is the Houston Medical Center which is the largest medical campus in the world. Although a quick google has the latest being that they think they will cope as they have been releasing beds and cancelling non-urgent procedures.


----------



## marinyork (27 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> So even if evenly distributed and they've no other work, can 4 officers close each mile of beach?    It's shoot and Hancock must know it.



4 officers and help from the politicians, easy. I'm sure Matt Hancock watched Baywatch in his younger days. He knows how these things work.


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## marinyork (27 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The French?



The seagulls.


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## Edwardoka (27 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> I think I don't believe that. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rising-seas-threaten-nearly-half-of-uks-beaches-cw8mcmxr6 makes me think there's over 3200 miles of beaches (edit: because that's only sandy ones). https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2019 and https://www.statista.com/statistics/877540/leading-police-forces-by-officer-numbers-in-the-uk/ makes me think there's about 126'000 frontline police.
> 
> So even if evenly distributed and they've no other work, can 4 officers close each mile of beach?    It's shoot and Hancock must know it.


Given how he fudged the 100,000 tests a day stat, it'll be interesting to see how he manages this.
Maybe a police officer will visit every beach in the country and say "I do declare this beach closed".
Not all on the same day, of course. That would be silly, even for a very long-legged policeman it would take ages.

Maybe they can tender it out to the private sector. How much do you think Serco could charge to do nothing and fall back on the coastline paradox?
What's an impressive corporate-sounding way to say "as coastlines are fractal they have no definable length"?


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## Low Gear Guy (27 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Have there been any confirmed open air transmissions yet?
> 
> I think the beach hate is being manufactured to distract from the true culprits.


On the BBC rolling internet news it was stated that 97% of infections were transmitted indoors so presumably 3% are picked up outdoors. This does not differentiate between transmission via surfaces or airborne viruses.
Before the lockdown was eased I came across a number of family groups walking in the countryside with ageing relatives. Bundling granny in a car for two hours with small children is not a good idea.


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## gbb (27 Jun 2020)

It wouldnt hurt to consider that the hold the virus has in this country should sit, at the least partly and in my opinion firmly at the door of stupid stupid people.
There have been outbreaks in food production facilities, I hear now a factory in / near Spalding has been closed after an outbreak of 15 cases. It's an absolute miracle we havnt had the same although we have had 4 cases I believe and they're just the ones we know about. The agency staff are mind bogglingly non compliant re social distancing and a good proportion isnt lack of awareness, its downright bloddy mindedness and in some cases a 'it's(covid) a load of rubbish' . A supervisor tasked with ensuring one way systems work, social distancing works, general agency staff compliance has met with sneers, mumbled threats and a wall of reluctance, and as soon as hes gone, back they go to their non compliant ways. 
If these people conduct themselves the same everywhere, you dont have to look very far why the virus has taken so many lives in this country.


The government have made mistakes no doubt but the stupidity of people is boggling and they are the ones that are actually transmitting this virus.


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## pawl (27 Jun 2020)

gbb said:


> It wouldnt hurt to consider that the hold the virus has in this country should sit, at the least partly and in my opinion firmly at the door of stupid stupid people.
> There have been outbreaks in food production facilities, I hear now a factory in / near Spalding has been closed after an outbreak of 15 cases. It's an absolute miracle we havnt had the same although we have had 4 cases I believe and they're just the ones we know about. The agency staff are mind bogglingly non compliant re social distancing and a good proportion isnt lack of awareness, its downright bloddy mindedness and in some cases a 'it's(covid) a load of rubbish' . A supervisor tasked with ensuring one way systems work, social distancing works, general agency staff compliance has met with sneers, mumbled threats and a wall of reluctance, and as soon as hes gone, back they go to their non compliant ways.
> If these people conduct themselves the same everywhere, you dont have to look very far why the virus has taken so many lives in this country.
> 
> ...







Could not agree more👍👍👍


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## DRM (27 Jun 2020)

gbb said:


> It wouldnt hurt to consider that the hold the virus has in this country should sit, at the least partly and in my opinion firmly at the door of stupid stupid people.
> There have been outbreaks in food production facilities, I hear now a factory in / near Spalding has been closed after an outbreak of 15 cases. It's an absolute miracle we havnt had the same although we have had 4 cases I believe and they're just the ones we know about. The agency staff are mind bogglingly non compliant re social distancing and a good proportion isnt lack of awareness, its downright bloddy mindedness and in some cases a 'it's(covid) a load of rubbish' . A supervisor tasked with ensuring one way systems work, social distancing works, general agency staff compliance has met with sneers, mumbled threats and a wall of reluctance, and as soon as hes gone, back they go to their non compliant ways.
> If these people conduct themselves the same everywhere, you dont have to look very far why the virus has taken so many lives in this country.
> 
> ...


Having had to work through the pandemic, in warehouses the above in my experience is true, the agency staff will not do as they are asked, they are so stupid they can't see that they have been brought in as cannon fodder to cover any shortage of staff, no one gives a flying fart if they get Covid-19 or not, or if it kills them, so long as the end product goes out of the door, to me food processing plants are a prime way of spreading Covid, as everyone is jammed in working side by side, in cool, damp condition, the floors are usually wet through, and you have staff, who are mainly Eastern European living in shared accommodation, it's a perfect storm brewing I'm afraid.


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## RoadRider400 (27 Jun 2020)

gbb said:


> It wouldnt hurt to consider that the hold the virus has in this country should sit, at the least partly and in my opinion firmly at the door of stupid stupid people.
> There have been outbreaks in food production facilities, I hear now a factory in / near Spalding has been closed after an outbreak of 15 cases. It's an absolute miracle we havnt had the same although we have had 4 cases I believe and they're just the ones we know about. The agency staff are mind bogglingly non compliant re social distancing and a good proportion isnt lack of awareness, its downright bloddy mindedness and in some cases a 'it's(covid) a load of rubbish' . A supervisor tasked with ensuring one way systems work, social distancing works, general agency staff compliance has met with sneers, mumbled threats and a wall of reluctance, and as soon as hes gone, back they go to their non compliant ways.
> If these people conduct themselves the same everywhere, you dont have to look very far why the virus has taken so many lives in this country.
> 
> ...


Agreed. Our plans to curb the spread are only as good as our stupidest people and there are an awful lot of them. Doesnt bode well for autumn and winter.


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## Joey Shabadoo (27 Jun 2020)

The government didn't put the country on furlough until October because they thought this would be over in June


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## mjr (27 Jun 2020)

gbb said:


> There have been outbreaks in food production facilities, I hear now a factory in / near Spalding has been closed after an outbreak of 15 cases.


Nothing on BBC Lincs or ITV Yorks or Lincs Live. Where's that, then?



> A supervisor tasked with ensuring one way systems work, social distancing works, general agency staff compliance has met with sneers, mumbled threats and a wall of reluctance, and as soon as hes gone, back they go to their non compliant ways.


Sounds like an illustration of the madness of Boris's approach of letting businesses regulate themselves. The supervisor should escalate it to management, who should discipline some and maybe ultimately shut down or call in the authorities, but few business owners will act that strongly to protect us.

Some people may be acting stupid, but Boris has left us at their mercy.


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## mjr (27 Jun 2020)

I think the UK is still "running too hot" in terms of absolute new daily deaths and so shouldn't be unlocking even more - or at least not unlocking indoor activities. If this carried on at current rates, the UK's published "deaths per capita" will overtake Belgium in 3½ weeks despite the suspected disparity in reporting (UK 40% underreported, Belgium 0%).


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## DRM (27 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Nothing on BBC Lincs or ITV Yorks or Lincs Live. Where's that, then?
> 
> 
> Sounds like an illustration of the madness of Boris's approach of letting businesses regulate themselves. The supervisor should escalate it to management, who should discipline some and maybe ultimately shut down or call in the authorities, but few business owners will act that strongly to protect us.
> ...


They won't close, all that matters is profit, ultimately the supervisors & management are worse because they cowtow to the owners/shareholders, instead of saying stop, there was a meat packing plant up here with a huge outbreak that covered it up, only when it was mentioned on the daily update did the smelly brown stuff hit the fan, no mention on either BBC, ITV or Sky news outlets up to that point.


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## gbb (27 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Nothing on BBC Lincs or ITV Yorks or Lincs Live.


My mistake, its Wisbeach, Princes factory. BBC local news, Cambridgeshire. 14 cases, plant closed temporarily. Staff 'forgetting themselves' when at breaks. In other words (IMHO) as soon as they're left to their own devices, they just revert to type, same as they do here. The agency responsible here has tried to modify their behaviour but it's an unbelievably hard task.
Mixed feeling it only being a 24 hour closure. Is it enough, are they screening to identify other cases ? On the selfish side, staff here were concerned if had been a longer closure, we'd have likely seen some of them appearing here.


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## DRM (27 Jun 2020)

gbb said:


> My mistake, its Wisbeach, Princes factory. BBC local news, Cambridgeshire. 14 cases, plant closed temporarily. Staff 'forgetting themselves' when at breaks. In other words (IMHO) as soon as they're left to their own devices, they just revert to type, same as they do here. The agency responsible here has tried to modify their behaviour but it's an unbelievably hard task.
> Mixed feeling it only being a 24 hour closure. Is it enough, are they screening to identify other cases ? On the selfish side, staff here were concerned if had been a longer closure, we'd have likely seen some of them appearing here.


If the staff have been exposed, surely they should all go home and isolate for 14 days, 14 cases will be the tip of the iceberg, give it a couple of days and 14 could become 126 quite easily, going on the assumption that 1 person will infect 3 others.


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## Unkraut (27 Jun 2020)

gbb said:


> The government have made mistakes no doubt but the stupidity of people is boggling and they are the ones that are actually transmitting this virus.


I don't think anyone would want to let the government off the hook, but you are right - sensible action by the public could get the pandemic reasonably under control without government interference. The stupidity of those who ignore the rules is made worse by the dithering and incompetent response of the government from the beginning.


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## DRM (27 Jun 2020)

the other thing is, this lot cover it up, then call out a few contractors to repair bits of kit over the course of the week, they then travel all over spreading it over a wider area, without realising what they've done, imo the HSE should prosecute ANY factory who refuse to close/cover up an outbreak.


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## mjr (27 Jun 2020)

gbb said:


> My mistake, its Wisbeach, Princes factory. BBC local news, Cambridgeshire. 14 cases, plant closed temporarily. Staff 'forgetting themselves' when at breaks. In other words (IMHO) as soon as they're left to their own devices, they just revert to type, same as they do here. The agency responsible here has tried to modify their behaviour but it's an unbelievably hard task.
> Mixed feeling it only being a 24 hour closure. Is it enough, are they screening to identify other cases ? On the selfish side, staff here were concerned if had been a longer closure, we'd have likely seen some of them appearing here.


Oh yes, I'd seen that one. One of my nearby towns and, to be honest, I was avoiding it anyway because of what residents were posting to social media and what I saw in parks on one ride through. They're already campaigning against coronavirus vaccination, for crying out loud!

As for Princes, I don't understand why it's not a 2 week shutdown and deep clean with quararantine orders for workers and HSE investigation. That might also concentrate the minds at other plants.

People may be stupid but so is this government!


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## Tanis8472 (27 Jun 2020)

pawl said:


> I understand people traveled from the midlands to Poole and Bournemouth.Cant think of anything worse than sitting in a car for god knows now long just to sit on a jam packed beach.
> 
> Just seen on the news Matt Hancock is warning we will close beaches if public don’t social distance.



We shall fight them on the beaches........


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## marinyork (27 Jun 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I don't think anyone would want to let the government off the hook, but you are right - sensible action by the public could get the pandemic reasonably under control without government interference. The stupidity of those who ignore the rules is made worse by the dithering and incompetent response of the government from the beginning.



One of the failings in the public health message I feel is that of time. The scientific advisors have always said in whatever environment the risk is proportional to time, disregarding the many other factors. Alcohol and changed behaviours has been commented on too.

A lot of time in the media and on these forums is rightly spent talking about proximity, even if it's outside in many cases. 

I feel that the message on time hasn't been clear. A lot of these beach or park outings with people outside your household are often for 3/6/9 hours. I get the feeling some weekends/furlough they are repeated multiple times. I think that a health message needs to get across that a day could be as much as say a month's worth of risk in other contexts.


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## marinyork (27 Jun 2020)

DRM said:


> If the staff have been exposed, surely they should all go home and isolate for 14 days, 14 cases will be the tip of the iceberg, give it a couple of days and 14 could become 126 quite easily, going on the assumption that 1 person will infect 3 others.



They will be split into high and low risk and the high risk quarantined for 14 days. 

In reality they should all go home. This is the problem with the track and trace, if it remains open for some workers with asymptomatic cases it slowly belts around the factory and the people who are assumed to have started it may not be and it does several loops of the factory. It's also the nonsense of track and trace. In this setting every single person needs testing and if negative they also need to do some more a few days later.


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## mjr (27 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> One of the failings in the public health message I feel is that of time. The scientific advisors have always said in whatever environment the risk is proportional to time, disregarding the many other factors. [...] I feel that the message on time hasn't been clear.


Agreed. A lot of scientific advice articles have been clear that your aim should be to reduce the risk of accumulating sufficient virus to infect you, so if someone breathing is expelling virus particles at a constant rate per minute that reach 1m, then it would be riskier to spend two minutes 1m away than one minute. But that really hasn't come into play in this country's public messaging, yoyoing between overzealous absolutes ("stay at home") and vague nonsense ("stay alert").

Some countries set a maximum permitted time for being in a shop (30 minutes in one example). I suspect you were unlikely to be fined unless you did something stupid like set up camp in a supermarket, but it was there as part of the public messaging.

England never did, probably because Boris doesn't want to upset businesses if at all reasonably possible and the absolute farking shambles at Morrisons left me stood in the checkout queue snaking through the baby clothes aisles for almost half an hour on my last visit there.


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## marinyork (27 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Agreed. A lot of scientific advice articles have been clear that your aim should be to reduce the risk of accumulating sufficient virus to infect you, so if someone breathing is expelling virus particles at a constant rate per minute that reach 1m, then it would be riskier to spend two minutes 1m away than one minute. But that really hasn't come into play in this country's public messaging, yoyoing between overzealous absolutes ("stay at home") and vague nonsense ("stay alert").
> 
> Some countries set a maximum permitted time for being in a shop (30 minutes in one example). I suspect you were unlikely to be fined unless you did something stupid like set up camp in a supermarket, but it was there as part of the public messaging.
> 
> England never did, probably because Boris doesn't want to upset businesses if at all reasonably possible and the absolute farking shambles at Morrisons left me stood in the checkout queue snaking through the baby clothes aisles for almost half an hour on my last visit there.



The SAGE advice, the time aspect is prominent in it.

Stay at home was fine, but people were only ever going to stick to it for weeks before lockdown fatigue set in.

It's important for those public health officials to mention the time with the roasting temperatures, summer here and still a gigantic swathe of the population on furlough and 'nominally' a lot of/more time on their hands and those desperate to see people with it sounding like everything is open as normal.


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## Joey Shabadoo (27 Jun 2020)

I wonder how much the message is ignored because of who is giving it? We know there are a lot of people don't like the Tories and would maybe resent being told what to do by them. Similarly if I were being ordered to do things by a Corbyn/McDonnell/Abbott government there's a strong chance I would have just thought "fark off". Certainly after the Cummings debacle the number of serious breaches of lockdown seemed to increase showing a lack of respect for the government.

I remember thinking at the outset the daily briefing should have been from a civil servant - rather like Ian wotsisname who had the task of reading out the daily losses in the Falklands War. It makes the message apolitical.

On the other hand, Sturgeon is seeing a growth in approval because she has delivered the message personally every day and took ownership of the crisis. A lot of people respect that.


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## marinyork (27 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I wonder how much the message is ignored because of who is giving it? We know there are a lot of people don't like the Tories and would maybe resent being told what to do by them. Similarly if I were being ordered to do things by a Corbyn/McDonnell/Abbott government there's a strong chance I would have just thought "fark off". Certainly after the Cummings debacle the number of serious breaches of lockdown seemed to increase showing a lack of respect for the government.
> 
> I remember thinking at the outset the daily briefing should have been from a civil servant - rather like Ian wotsisname who had the task of reading out the daily losses in the Falklands War. It makes the message apolitical.
> 
> On the other hand, Sturgeon is seeing a growth in approval because she has delivered the message personally every day and took ownership of the crisis. A lot of people respect that.



Are you talking about Scotland or in general?

It isn't the 1960s with doffed caps and deference, people haven't had 'respect' for governments for decades. It isn't Mr Chamberlain waving his bit of paper or Mr MacMillian sat in downing street for the first interview pf a prime minister on tv.

I'm not sure it has a political persuasion in the very specific party sense, people want clarity. The people wanted clarity so badly they decided to social distance and wind down activities before Boris closed the pubs and then told people to stay home. People may not want to be told what to do by politicians, but some of those people will not want to be told what to do by anyone and will stick two fingers up at their families and neighbours. In the lack of clarity people will make up their own rules. So around 90%+ of the population are believed to have not had coronavirus and managed to survive Feb, March, April, May and June. The virus is now at lower levels. These clowns aren't telling me anything useful. Do what you want innit. 

The UK government seems to have cottoned on that the daily briefings were counter productive and abolished them. This should have happened weeks sooner and format changed. Or maybe it really did think back to normal, better get rid. The public probably liked a couple of Boris's rambles, but after that I'm not sure what they got out of it. The UK ones it did get frigging stupid with Matt's targets and repetitive questions from journalists.

The press conference could have been The Whitty or The Vallance.

The UK government also doesn't have the guts to say that it's priority is the economy now and why.


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## mjr (27 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I wonder how much the message is ignored because of who is giving it? We know there are a lot of people don't like the Tories and would maybe resent being told what to do by them. Similarly if I were being ordered to do things by a Corbyn/McDonnell/Abbott government there's a strong chance I would have just thought "fark off". Certainly after the Cummings debacle the number of serious breaches of lockdown seemed to increase showing a lack of respect for the government.
> 
> I remember thinking at the outset the daily briefing should have been from a civil servant - rather like Ian wotsisname who had the task of reading out the daily losses in the Falklands War. It makes the message apolitical.
> 
> On the other hand, Sturgeon is seeing a growth in approval because she has delivered the message personally every day and took ownership of the crisis. A lot of people respect that.


1. Not everyone is as party political as you sound from that. I've voted for most of the non extreme parties at some point (although often from a limited choice out in the sticks) and I don't criticise this government for being Tories. I criticise them for being rather awful.

2. The Cummings effect isn't party political either. If Campbell has done something that bad and Blair had stuck by him, we'd've seen similar, I think.

3. I said months ago that the press briefings should have been officer only. So I'd also agree with criticising this Government for being control freaks desperate for their fifteen minutes on prime time BBC 1, but basically variously clueless, innumerate or hypocritical.


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## MntnMan62 (27 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> I think the UK is still "running too hot" in terms of absolute new daily deaths and so shouldn't be unlocking even more - or at least not unlocking indoor activities. If this carried on at current rates, the UK's published "deaths per capita" will overtake Belgium in 3½ weeks despite the suspected disparity in reporting (UK 40% underreported, Belgium 0%).



I agree. And you guys and gals should take the lesson from the US. All three states that have "reopened", Florida, Texas and Arizona, have all shut down the bars and restaurants and hot spot areas due to a spike in new cases as well as record setting numbers that have not been seen ever. If that doesn't tell you something, then I don't know what does. Incredulous that anyone would think that it would be possible to open anything up if there is no vaccine and no new treatment methods that helpt to mitigate the spread of the virus. The stark reality is NOTHING HAS CHANGED. Unfortunately our red states and our screaming orange sphincter muscle in the White House are too mentally brain dead to understand very simple and basic concepts. After all, who would have thought that if you test more, you would find more cases??? Duh. Can't fix stupid.


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## SkipdiverJohn (27 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Stay at home was fine, but people were only ever going to stick to it for weeks before lockdown fatigue set in.



The lockdown was only ever a brief window to give the government the breathing space to ramp up their intensive care bed capacity. Anyone who thinks that the population is going to tolerate not being able to go about their normal routines until the virus eventually disappears is frankly deluded. If the government have got behavioral scientists advising them they will know the longer this goes on the more fed up people will get and the less notice they will take. Close contact between people is already increasing massively, in shops, in the street, in the park, on the beach, and at work. Plenty of bus passengers are ignoring the mask edict, and either don't have one or don't wear it as intended. The genie is out of the bottle, and it's not going back in now summer is here!. What happens next is going to depend very much how much the real infection numbers up until now compare with the official ones. My own belief is that they are massively understating the true numbers, and a substantial proportion of the population have already been infected, so the virus now has a significantly smaller target audience left to infect.

A second wave of some magnitude is inevitable and in fact, is really necessary, in order to get the worst of it over and done with before the winter flu season kicks in. Trying to actually stop the virus is futile and pushing it further and further back in the calendar simply means the NHS will be overwhelmed in six months time instead, when it still has all the coronavirus cases - plus the usual flu/pneumonia/broken bones from falls etc to deal with.


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## gbb (27 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> One of the failings in the public health message I feel is that of time. The scientific advisors have always said in whatever environment the risk is proportional to time, disregarding the many other factors. Alcohol and changed behaviours has been commented on too.
> 
> A lot of time in the media and on these forums is rightly spent talking about proximity, even if it's outside in many cases.
> 
> I feel that the message on time hasn't been clear. A lot of these beach or park outings with people outside your household are often for 3/6/9 hours. I get the feeling some weekends/furlough they are repeated multiple times. I think that a health message needs to get across that a day could be as much as say a month's worth of risk in other contexts.


And that's one of my concerns. I did the official antibody test, negative result, and one of the many questions it asks in the enclosed questionnaire was...
Of the people you have been closer than 2 metres in the last 24 hours (not exactly but you get the idea) how many did you spend 5 minutes or more with ?

Now I work in a very busy factory where lots of money has been spent and systems put in place but i come into contact with many many people less than 2 metres away, however hard you try, mine is a very fluid job, lots of movement between lines and people. Some contact can be around 5 minutes but most are less....but I'm coming into contact with maybe 100 people daily, at less than 2 metres, that's all got to increase the chances enormously.
(Its my opinion, while the company has spent lots, put lots of effort into distancing etc, it simply cannot achieve a safe environment and should have reduced its output to meet the safe environment it's workforce needs. Spanish company, very aggressive commercially, fat chance....in fact its picked up more work because responsible companies who did reduce orders...have now possibly made a commercial faux pas and our company picks up the business...at even more cost to its workforce. Its brutal reality, doing the right thing can be a mistake for companies.


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## MntnMan62 (27 Jun 2020)

Lockdown fatigue is nothing more than another name for human weakness. No excuse when lives are on the line. I won't budge from that position. All you have to do is look at what is happening in the US right now. People either need to grow a pair or move to Russia.


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## roubaixtuesday (27 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> My own belief is that they are massively understating the true numbers, and a substantial proportion of the population have already been infected, so the virus now has a significantly smaller target audience left to infect.



I'm not sure why you believe this, but it's incorrect. 

Anti body testing is used to measure the proportion of people who have been infected. 

It's about 5-10%

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ypilot/12june2020#antibody-tests-for-covid-19


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## deptfordmarmoset (27 Jun 2020)

This BBC interview - https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000kfv0 - not yet available but it'll be up soon - with Neil Ferguson was very interesting and highly reflective.


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## deptfordmarmoset (27 Jun 2020)

Plus the suggestion that the trend of falling incidence of covid has ceased falling here - https://covid19.joinzoe.com/post/covid-incidence-stable


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## Salty seadog (27 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I wonder how much the message is ignored because of who is giving it? We know there are a lot of people don't like the Tories and would maybe resent being told what to do by them. Similarly if I were being ordered to do things by a Corbyn/McDonnell/Abbott government there's a strong chance I would have just thought "fark off". Certainly after the Cummings debacle the number of serious breaches of lockdown seemed to increase showing a lack of respect for the government.
> 
> I remember thinking at the outset the daily briefing should have been from a civil servant - rather like Ian wotsisname who had the task of reading out the daily losses in the Falklands War. It makes the message apolitical.
> 
> On the other hand, Sturgeon is seeing a growth in approval because she has delivered the message personally every day and took ownership of the crisis. A lot of people respect that.



I don't agree with you on disobeying lockdown rules bases on your voting preference. It is the terminally unaware or terminally don't care that are causing the problem. You and I will continue to act responsibly, I know that. The message is muddle. The whole handling has been wing on a prayer.


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## MntnMan62 (27 Jun 2020)

New Jersey has just placed restrictions on who can enter the state. The restrictions apply to people coming from states that have a 10% or higher positive test rate over a seven day rolling average. The states that come under that restriction are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Utah. Definitely a pattern established here. Mostly red states, if not all of them. Clearly significant levels of stupidity in those red states.


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## SkipdiverJohn (27 Jun 2020)

gbb said:


> (Its my opinion, while the company has spent lots, put lots of effort into distancing etc, it simply cannot achieve a safe environment and should have reduced its output to meet the safe environment it's workforce needs. Spanish company, very aggressive commercially, fat chance....in fact its picked up more work because responsible companies who did reduce orders...have now possibly made a commercial faux pas and our company picks up the business...at even more cost to its workforce. Its brutal reality, doing the right thing can be a mistake for companies.



I would not class shutting up shop and putting people out of work as "doing the right thing". I bet if you were to ask a hundred people if they would prefer risking a dose of the virus to being on the dole, a majority of them would prefer to take their chances with the virus and still have a job to go to. 
The government can't keep the economy in suspended animation forever with the furlough, and a lot of jobs require physical attendance at the workplace and close contact with other people. Your employer might have acted out of pure commercial self interest, but ultimately the employees will still have a livelihood afterwards where other more "worthy" employers will take the government's furlough money for now, then dump the staff they don't want once they have to pick up the tab for their wages. 
I reckon a lot of hospitality businesses will not actually open at the start of next month, having taken a calculated decision that they will not be able make any profit until social distancing is completely abolished. Financially it will make more sense to stay shut and let the government keep paying the wage bill.


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## marinyork (27 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> 3. I said months ago that the press briefings should have been officer only. So I'd also agree with criticising this Government for being control freaks desperate for their fifteen minutes on prime time BBC 1, but basically variously clueless, innumerate or hypocritical.



Them being daily without fail after around middle of April was damaging to public confidence. Also the sheer damn length of them.


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## gbb (27 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I would not class shutting up shop and putting people out of work as "doing the right thing". I bet if you were to ask a hundred people if they would prefer risking a dose of the virus to being on the dole, a majority of them would prefer to take their chances with the virus and still have a job to go to.
> The government can't keep the economy in suspended animation forever with the furlough, and a lot of jobs require physical attendance at the workplace and close contact with other people. Your employer might have acted out of pure commercial self interest, but ultimately the employees will still have a livelihood afterwards where other more "worthy" employers will take the government's furlough money for now, then dump the staff they don't want once they have to pick up the tab for their wages.
> I reckon a lot of hospitality businesses will not actually open at the start of next month, having taken a calculated decision that they will not be able make any profit until social distancing is completely abolished. Financially it will make more sense to stay shut and let the government keep paying the wage bill.


You may have misunderstood my sentiment. A reduction in output was the phrase, not shutting up shop, to try to make the workplace safe and achieve proper social distancing. Output reduction was mooted early on by my employers but as soon as they realised other companies were doing so, they took on the work the supermarkets were effectively tendering out to fill the gaps, therefore putting their staff at even greater risk.

Seperately, one thing I often say, to those who wanted an earlier or longer lockdown , you have to accept it would reduce the virus...but at great cost to perhaps hundreds of thousands, maybe more, of jobs. They'd soon complain then.


----------



## MntnMan62 (27 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I would not class shutting up shop and putting people out of work as "doing the right thing". I bet if you were to ask a hundred people if they would prefer risking a dose of the virus to being on the dole, a majority of them would prefer to take their chances with the virus and still have a job to go to.
> The government can't keep the economy in suspended animation forever with the furlough, and a lot of jobs require physical attendance at the workplace and close contact with other people. Your employer might have acted out of pure commercial self interest, but ultimately the employees will still have a livelihood afterwards where other more "worthy" employers will take the government's furlough money for now, then dump the staff they don't want once they have to pick up the tab for their wages.
> I reckon a lot of hospitality businesses will not actually open at the start of next month, having taken a calculated decision that they will not be able make any profit until social distancing is completely abolished. *Financially it will make more sense to stay shut and let the government keep paying the wage bill.*



Not just financially better but it will save many more lives. Apologies if you already said that.


----------



## MntnMan62 (27 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The lockdown was only ever a brief window to give the government the breathing space to ramp up their intensive care bed capacity. Anyone who thinks that the population is going to tolerate not being able to go about their normal routines until the virus eventually disappears is frankly deluded. If the government have got behavioral scientists advising them they will know the longer this goes on the more fed up people will get and the less notice they will take. Close contact between people is already increasing massively, in shops, in the street, in the park, on the beach, and at work. Plenty of bus passengers are ignoring the mask edict, and either don't have one or don't wear it as intended. The genie is out of the bottle, and it's not going back in now summer is here!. What happens next is going to depend very much how much the real infection numbers up until now compare with the official ones. My own belief is that they are massively understating the true numbers, and a substantial proportion of the population have already been infected, so the virus now has a significantly smaller target audience left to infect.
> 
> A second wave of some magnitude is inevitable and in fact, is really necessary, in order to get the worst of it over and done with before the winter flu season kicks in. Trying to actually stop the virus is futile and pushing it further and further back in the calendar simply means the NHS will be overwhelmed in six months time instead, when it still has all the coronavirus cases - plus the usual flu/pneumonia/broken bones from falls etc to deal with.



That may make sense if there is immunity to be had from having the virus. But if there isn’t any, it won’t matter. We are doomed and should do everything we can to save lives now.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (27 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Definitely a pattern established here. Mostly red states, if not all of them. Clearly significant levels of stupidity in those red states.



How do you explain the massive levels of the coronavirus in places like New York State and California then? They didn't support Trump but they did do a very good job of infecting each other with the virus!
The USA is such a big place that the outbreak was always going to take some time to spread everywhere, which it is now doing in places that escaped lightly at the start.
Personally I think Trump and those governors who want to get back to business as usual are doing the right thing. No other disease epidemic in history has resulted in such widespread government intervention and intentional economic disruption. It's highly questionable whether the outcome in the long run will prove to be any better, as virus deaths avoided may well be offset by increased mortality from other things, plus a likely cut in general life expectancy due to falling living standards as a result of higher lockdown-induced economic damage.


----------



## MntnMan62 (27 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> How do you explain the massive levels of the coronavirus in places like New York State and California then? They didn't support Trump but they did do a very good job of infecting each other with the virus!
> The USA is such a big place that the outbreak was always going to take some time to spread everywhere, which it is now doing in places that escaped lightly at the start.
> Personally I think Trump and those governors who want to get back to business as usual are doing the right thing. No other disease epidemic in history has resulted in such widespread government intervention and intentional economic disruption. It's highly questionable whether the outcome in the long run will prove to be any better, as virus deaths avoided may well be offset by increased mortality from other things, plus a likely cut in general life expectancy due to falling living standards as a result of higher lockdown-induced economic damage.



The reasons are no different. But NY and CA are much more crowded and therefor easier to pass the virus around. NYC itself is actually seeing lower numbers and CA is only shutting down the portions of the state that are effected. But the states I listed are targeted in their entirety by our state because the entire state has elevated levels. My point remains valid.


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## Low Gear Guy (27 Jun 2020)

Many hospitality businesses will have fewer customers when they reopen. In particular you would expect the vulnerable and their carers to stay home. With tight margins this will make the difference between profit and loss. This will continue until we have a vaccine or immunity. It is worth considering that pensioners have on average higher disposable income that working families.

It is not possible to go back to business as normal at this point in time


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## classic33 (27 Jun 2020)

gbb said:


> My mistake, its Wisbeach, Princes factory. BBC local news, Cambridgeshire. 14 cases, plant closed temporarily. Staff 'forgetting themselves' when at breaks. In other words (IMHO) as soon as they're left to their own devices, they just revert to type, same as they do here. The agency responsible here has tried to modify their behaviour but it's an unbelievably hard task.
> Mixed feeling it only being a 24 hour closure. Is it enough, are they screening to identify other cases ? On the selfish side, staff here were concerned if had been a longer closure, we'd have likely seen some of them appearing here.


Closer to home than that.
https://www.dewsburyreporter.co.uk/...cleckheaton-test-positive-coronavirus-2895808


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## MntnMan62 (27 Jun 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Many hospitality businesses will have fewer customers when they reopen. In particular you would expect the vulnerable and their carers to stay home. With tight margins this will make the difference between profit and loss. This will continue until we have a vaccine or immunity. It is worth considering that pensioners have on average higher disposable income that working families.
> 
> It is not possible to go back to business as normal at this point in time



Here in the US restaurants need about 70% of their full business to break even. High overhead, labor and cost of food makes it nearly impossible to truly open at the levels mandated by government.


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## Edwardoka (27 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> How do you explain the massive levels of the coronavirus in places like New York State and California then? They didn't support Trump but they did do a very good job of infecting each other with the virus!
> The USA is such a big place that the outbreak was always going to take some time to spread everywhere, which it is now doing in places that escaped lightly at the start.
> Personally I think Trump and those governors who want to get back to business as usual are doing the right thing. No other disease epidemic in history has resulted in such widespread government intervention and intentional economic disruption. It's highly questionable whether the outcome in the long run will prove to be any better, as virus deaths avoided may well be offset by increased mortality from other things, plus a likely cut in general life expectancy due to falling living standards as a result of higher lockdown-induced economic damage.


Well done, you got us, there is no answer to the question "how do you explain the massive levels of coronavirus in California, a highly urbanised state with the highest population in the country and all of the US's main transit hubs to Asia, and New York, a state with the fourth highest population in the country and which has the densest metropolitan area in the country and all of the US's main transit hubs to Europe?"

It's baffling, it must be that the governor in Idaho, his 20 farmer friends and their 13 billion pounds of potatoes knows something the people in New York don't. (I'm not picking on Idaho in particular.)

(Edit: I shouldn't have mentioned farmers, another entry in the spreadsheet. )


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## SkipdiverJohn (27 Jun 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Well done, you got us, there is no answer to the question "how do you explain the massive levels of coronavirus in California, a highly urbanised state with the highest population in the country and all of the US's main transit hubs to Asia, and New York, a state with the fourth highest population in the country and which has the densest metropolitan area in the country and all of the US's main transit hubs to Europe?"



So you therefore blame the aviation industry for bringing the coronavirus into the USA and fully support Trump when he issued various travel bans into the states then? 

I know I believe the majority of the blame for bringing the virus into the UK lies fairly and squarely with the aviation industry. The same lot that are bleating about needing a government bailout to save themselves from the chaos they were largely the cause of!


----------



## mjr (27 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> A second wave of some magnitude is inevitable and in fact, is really necessary, in order to get the worst of it over and done with before the winter flu season kicks in. Trying to actually stop the virus is futile and pushing it further and further back in the calendar simply means the NHS will be overwhelmed in six months time instead, when it still has all the coronavirus cases - plus the usual flu/pneumonia/broken bones from falls etc to deal with.


Why is it futile to defer some cases until there are more treatments? There are two working drugs now and more may be found.

Why is it futile to defer some cases until after there is a working vaccine?


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## SkipdiverJohn (27 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Why is it futile to defer some cases until there are more treatments? There are two working drugs now and more may be found.
> 
> Why is it futile to defer some cases until after there is a working vaccine?



Because vaccines take time to develop, and in the meantime the virus could also mutate into a strain that no-one has tried to develop a vaccine for. It's a massive risk, because still having a large uninfected population at large come the winter could have disastrous results when added to the seasonal illness workload.
I would liken it to how you avoid wildfires spreading. If you don't want your town burned down, you deliberately burn a swathe of land surrounding it to create a firebreak. In the case of the coronavirus, the firebreak is the healthy population who are unlikely to be badly affected by catching the virus. Let the well population go down with it with no interference, and you reduce the amount of virus carriers around able to transmit it to the sick population.


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## DCLane (27 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I know I believe the majority of the blame for bringing the virus into the UK lies fairly and squarely with the aviation industry. The same lot that are bleating about needing a government bailout to save themselves from the chaos they were largely the cause of!



That's no different to the banks wanting a bail-out in 2008/9 due to poor financial decision-making around sub-prime loans. They got their bail-out and we entered austerity for 10 years.


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## SkipdiverJohn (27 Jun 2020)

No argument from me. I'm a real capitalist and I don't believe in bailing out incompetent idiots who make irresponsible business decisions. The price of being cretinously stupid should be going bust. bailing innocent savers is different, but the bankers who dished out cash to subprime borrowers at prime interest rates and who repackaged toxic junk into fake investment grade instruments should have done jail time *and* lost their shirts.


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## DRM (27 Jun 2020)

classic33 said:


> Closer to home than that.
> https://www.dewsburyreporter.co.uk/...cleckheaton-test-positive-coronavirus-2895808


That’s the place I was referring to, they should be ashamed of themselves.


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## classic33 (27 Jun 2020)

DRM said:


> That’s the place I was referring to, they should be ashamed of themselves.


Pushes the numbers up locally.


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## midlife (28 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Because vaccines take time to develop, and in the meantime the virus could also mutate into a strain that no-one has tried to develop a vaccine for. It's a massive risk, because still having a large uninfected population at large come the winter could have disastrous results when added to the seasonal illness workload.
> I would liken it to how you avoid wildfires spreading. If you don't want your town burned down, you deliberately burn a swathe of land surrounding it to create a firebreak. In the case of the coronavirus, the firebreak is the healthy population who are unlikely to be badly affected by catching the virus. Let the well population go down with it with no interference, and you reduce the amount of virus carriers around able to transmit it to the sick population.



Didn't that Ferguson bloke model that and the death count came to about a quarter of a million?


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## srw (28 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Didn't that Ferguson bloke model that and the death count came to about a quarter of a million?


Half a million. An entire year's worth of death. The population of Leicester Which would be even more "world-beating" than the mere 80,000 - 100,000 we're likely to end up with.


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## rualexander (28 Jun 2020)

"Scotland could be Covid free by end of summer" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53192024

Seems unlikely though, maybe if it was an island.


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## Slick (28 Jun 2020)

rualexander said:


> "Scotland could be Covid free by end of summer" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53192024
> 
> Seems unlikely though, maybe if it was an island.


That's exactly right, but alas it is very unlikely unless we close the border which is even less unlikely.


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## Flick of the Elbow (28 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> That's exactly right, but alas it is very unlikely unless we close the border which is even less unlikely.


I wish they would to be honest. Once overnight stays become allowed it’s alarming to think how many holiday makers from areas of still high Covid incidence are going to be freely making their infectious ways through Scotland. All the additional sacrifices that we in Scotland have had to make over these months will have been for nothing.


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## Slick (28 Jun 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> I wish they would to be honest. Once overnight stays become allowed it’s alarming to think how many holiday makers from areas of still high Covid incidence are going to be freely making their infectious ways through Scotland. All the additional sacrifices that we in Scotland have had to make over these months will have been for nothing.


I think it will be criminal if we let this get away from us from this point on but we are not immune from behaviour witnessed elsewhere and I suppose a lot of the same mistakes are likely when restrictions are lifted. It does show that the cautious approach was working though.


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## marinyork (28 Jun 2020)

rualexander said:


> "Scotland could be Covid free by end of summer" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53192024
> 
> Seems unlikely though, maybe if it was an island.



Another way of reading that is that there is a long long time till the end of summer, so that trend and behaviours leading to it would have to continue for a long time.


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## Slick (28 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Another way of reading that is that there is a long long time till the end of summer, so that trend and behaviours leading to it would have to continue for a long time.


Not in Scotland.


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## Pat "5mph" (28 Jun 2020)

Slick said:


> Not in Scotland.


That is exactly what I was going to post after reading Marin's post 
In fact, it's quite cold and wet today


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Jun 2020)

I didn't expect a second wave. I thought we would learn from first time around but it's starting to spook me now.

There seems to be a collective madness gathering, an almost eschatological release.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ld-camping-lake-district-coronavirus-lockdown

My local, quite posh area Facebook group has people defending those urinating in the streets from "takeaway" drinks sales as perfectly entitled. After all, what are they supposed to do when the toilets are shut??

All reason seems to be suspended.


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## MntnMan62 (28 Jun 2020)

The news in the States just gets better and better every day. I can't sit here and read anymore. I'm going out for a ride. This stuff is just too depressing.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/actual-coronavirus-infections-vastly-undercounted-151300720.html


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## marinyork (28 Jun 2020)

Pat "5mph" said:


> That is exactly what I was going to post after reading Marin's post
> In fact, it's quite cold and wet today



It wasn't warm here today, but I did a long walk and was great.

Others seemed to agree with you because as a weekend it was the quietest one I've seen in a long time.

If everyone is indoors that'll be even worse though.


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## mjr (28 Jun 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> My local, quite posh area Facebook group has people defending those urinating in the streets from "takeaway" drinks sales as perfectly entitled. After all, what are they supposed to do when the toilets are shut??
> 
> All reason seems to be suspended.


Well, why are your public toilets shut? How shoot is your council that they can't keep toilets clean?


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## mjr (28 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Because vaccines take time to develop, and in the meantime the virus could also mutate into a strain that no-one has tried to develop a vaccine for. It's a massive risk, because still having a large uninfected population at large come the winter could have disastrous results when added to the seasonal illness workload.


It's all risky but I am sure having a large infected population then will be far worse.



> I would liken it to how you avoid wildfires spreading. If you don't want your town burned down, you deliberately burn a swathe of land surrounding it to create a firebreak. In the case of the coronavirus, the firebreak is the healthy population who are unlikely to be badly affected by catching the virus. Let the well population go down with it with no interference, and you reduce the amount of virus carriers around able to transmit it to the sick population.


So kill a load of healthy people and pile the bodies into a defensive wall? That seems crazy!

This virus isn't like a fire because it doesn't have near-100% case fatality. People aren't like trees because they move around. Using a wildfire defence tactic is folly. Much better to delay and develop treatments and vaccines.


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## fossyant (28 Jun 2020)

I'm going to take a gun loaded with handwash next time I see someone poking and squeezing fruit and veg repeatedly in the supermarket, especially old folk. FFS.


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## fossyant (28 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Well, why are your public toilets shut? How shoot is your council that they can't keep toilets clean?



A friend of ours is back working in Manchester City Centre. She decided to sit in St Anne's Square for a few minutes before work, then realised the place stank of wee. No toilets or businesses open with public toilets.


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## mjr (28 Jun 2020)

fossyant said:


> A friend of ours is back working in Manchester City Centre. She decided to sit in St Anne's Square for a few minutes before work, then realised the place stank of wee. No toilets or businesses open with public toilets.


I suspect pee and poo in doorways is a bigger public health risk than coronavirus transmission in well-maintained public toilets.


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## marinyork (28 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Well, why are your public toilets shut? How shoot is your council that they can't keep toilets clean?



Public toilets are shut around here.

According to news outlets it's the majority of the country.


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## classic33 (29 Jun 2020)

fossyant said:


> I'm going to take a gun loaded with handwash next time I see someone poking and squeezing fruit and veg repeatedly in the supermarket, especially old folk. FFS.


It's those that apply sanitizers after picking something up and placing it back that annoy me. Each and every item they pick up, even if they decide they don't want it. Fresh fruit and veg being the worst.


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## MntnMan62 (29 Jun 2020)

classic33 said:


> It's those that apply sanitizers after picking something up and placing it back that annoy me. Each and every item they pick up, even if they decide they don't want it. Fresh fruit and veg being the worst.



Wait. You don't like it when someone uses santizer every time they pick up something and put it back? Why? That only means their hands have a high probability of being virus free. And if they do that, you know they are sanitizing their hands before they even walk in the store. I'm puzzled by your comment. Fruits and vegetables often have to be handled in order to know if they are ripe or fresh. That's just how it goes. Care to elaborate?


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (29 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Didn't that Ferguson bloke model that and the death count came to about a quarter of a million?



I wouldn't place too much trust in the mathematical modelling by the likes of Ferguson, who himself broke the lockdown rules. That tells me he doesn't actually believe the virus is that dangerous himself. The total death toll in previous pandemics has proved to be only a fraction of what some of the more hysterical "experts" predicted they would be. The one to watch is Brazil, where the most useful picture of the real potency of the virus will emerge very soon, since there has been relatively little attempt to interfere with it's natural progression.


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## MntnMan62 (29 Jun 2020)

I have to say that the more I think about it, the more I believe opening up is nothing less than ignoring that we are in the middle of a pandemic. There is no vaccine. There is no treatment. And with each state and country that has chosen to "open up" we are seeing skyrocketing numbers of new cases. The challenge of coming up with a vaccine is definitely rocket science. But the interpretation of numbers and statistics that we are seeing is far from rocket science. How stupid can people really be?


----------



## Tanis8472 (29 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I have to say that the more I think about it, the more I believe opening up is nothing less than ignoring that we are in the middle of a pandemic. There is no vaccine. There is no treatment. And with each state and country that has chosen to "open up" we are seeing skyrocketing numbers of new cases. The challenge of coming up with a vaccine is definitely rocket science. But the interpretation of numbers and statistics that we are seeing is far from rocket science. How stupid can people really be?



Checks notes, 



See Bournemouth etc and a lot of previous comments everywhere.


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## srw (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I wouldn't place too much trust in the mathematical modelling by the likes of Ferguson, who himself broke the lockdown rules. That tells me he doesn't actually believe the virus is that dangerous himself. The total death toll in previous pandemics has proved to be only a fraction of what some of the more hysterical "experts" predicted they would be. *The one to watch is Brazil*, where the most useful picture of the real potency of the virus will emerge very soon, since there has been relatively little attempt to interfere with it's natural progression.



Watch, and learn. 







And that's despite a lot of people outside the Brazilian government doing a lot of work to cap its spread.

Ferguson may have been an idiot by letting his lover break the rules (he didn't break them himself), but his modelling has been pretty much on the money


----------



## DaveReading (29 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Fruits and vegetables often have to be handled in order to know if they are ripe or fresh. That's just how it goes. Care to elaborate?



Try that it any market in Italy (even pre-Covid) and you'll be given short shrift.


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## SkipdiverJohn (29 Jun 2020)

Don't forget that Brazil has a population exactly three times that of the UK, when looking at graphs. The only compatible way to measure different countries is on a per head of population basis. If you look at the numbers for Brazil vs the USA, adjusted for population size, the USA currently still has a worse infection rate. 
It's quite obvious that there will not be another widespread lockdown in the USA, because of the amount of unemployment it caused the first time, and the virus will continue to transmit freely in both Brazil and the US. What will be interesting is how high the daily new infection numbers get before they level off even with minimal attempts to control them.


----------



## srw (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The only compatible way to measure different countries is on a per head of population basis. If you look at the numbers for Brazil vs the USA, adjusted for population size, the USA currently still has a worse infection rate.


No it doesn't. 







This is current cases per million, on a linear scale (the last one was a log scale). It looks awful for both countries led by off-the-scale authoritarian populists, despite the efforts of many local government agencies to suppress the spread. And it really flatters the country led by the incompetent nincompoop who, fortunately for us, plays the authoritarian populist badly.


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## marinyork (29 Jun 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Fruits and vegetables often have to be handled in order to know if they are ripe or fresh. That's just how it goes. Care to elaborate?



You often make some quite out there and shoot from the hip comments on this thread without explanation.

Yours is opinion only. Handling of fruit and vegetables with bare hands varies heavily on cultural background and individual difference.

You are just very different from some others on this thread.


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## SkipdiverJohn (29 Jun 2020)

@srw , you keep putting up rolling averages, which are only a snapshot and do not show the cumulative result. I am talking about the total number of confirmed cases per country divided by the total population of that country. Brazil has roughly half the number of virus cases compared to the USA, but almost two thirds of the USA's population. Therefore the total amount of infection spread to date in the USA is higher than in Brazil.


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## srw (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> @srw , you keep putting up rolling averages, which are only a snapshot and do not show the cumulative result. I am talking about the total number of confirmed cases per country divided by the total population of that country. Brazil has roughly half the number of virus cases compared to the USA, but almost two thirds of the USA's population. Therefore the total amount of infection spread to date in the USA is higher than in Brazil.








I give it about a fortnight before you're wrong.

Whichever way you look at it, Brazil and the US are having disastrous pandemics.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (29 Jun 2020)

srw said:


> I give it about a fortnight before you're wrong.
> 
> Whichever way you look at it, Brazil and the US are having disastrous pandemics.



I agree Brazil will probably soon overtake the US in terms of infection rate, but I also reckon they will recover quicker from it afterwards. Even the US will probably recover quicker than most of the developed West. Europe will continue to be a complete shoot show, especially in the South.

Very few countries have had what you could call a "good" pandemic. Most have either had a lot of infection, or a lot of lockdown inflicted economic damage, or worse still - both.


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## Joey Shabadoo (29 Jun 2020)

The reason Britain did so appallingly in the first wave isn't anything to do with weak government and selfish people apparently, it's to do with obesity.



> Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Times Radio that Britons were significantly fatter than people in most of the rest of Europe, admitting he had lost weight after contracting coronavirus.
> Research has suggested being overweight or obese may make people who get coronavirus sicker.
> The Sunday Times this week reported that the prime minister was planning to "put the nation on a diet" - including the wider use of bariatric surgery - in order to try to limit the impact of a second wave of coronavirus.



umm

If it's anything like everything else this clown's government does it'll be "We _suggest_ you don't eat that teacake", "We _strongly urge_ you to limit second helpings", "We _advise_ you to chew your sausages more carefully"

Dick. Stick to press ups


Talk about victim blaming


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## SpokeyDokey (29 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The reason Britain did so appallingly in the first wave isn't anything to do with weak government and selfish people apparently, it's to do with obesity.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Aren't we about the 3rd or 4th most obese nation in Europe?

_If_ obesity is definitely a factor in Covid death rates then he may well have a point. 

Obviously if it is it is not the only factor but it really wouldn't hurt if the nation was put on a diet (and started cycling more ).


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## SkipdiverJohn (29 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> If it's anything like everything else this clown's government does it'll be "We _suggest_ you don't eat that teacake", "We _strongly urge_ you to limit second helpings", "We _advise_ you to chew your sausages more carefully"



The reality is the UK does not have the sort of population that likes being told what to do by politicians, and trust in politicians and government institutions is relatively low. The USA is exactly the same.

In countries where the public tend to believe the government, such as Scandinavia, the population will generally pay some attention to any advice given and try to follow it.
In countries with a cynical and jaded attitude to politicians and government, the response to any official directives on what to do or what not to do, is likely to be "go feck yourselves, I'm not going to put up with any of that shite" from a substantial proportion of the populace. We aren't in China or Singapore, and Boris realises that.


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## Joey Shabadoo (29 Jun 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Aren't we about the 3rd or 4th most obese nation in Europe?
> 
> _If_ obesity is definitely a factor in Covid death rates then he may well have a point.
> 
> Obviously if it is it is not the only factor but it really wouldn't hurt if the nation was put on a diet (and started cycling more ).


If it's true, why has Scotland fared better than England? Scotland has 30% of adults obese compared to 27% in England


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## SpokeyDokey (29 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> If it's true, why has Scotland fared better than England? Scotland has 30% of adults obese compared to 27% in England



No idea apart from those figures not being too dissimilar in the grand scheme of things or maybe just a statistical anomaly; which happens.


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## roubaixtuesday (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The reality is the UK does not have the sort of population that likes being told what to do by politicians, and trust in politicians and government institutions is relatively low



Nonsense. Honestly, this flies in the face of any facts. 

You're seriously suggesting that the population of Greece is more compliant in general to govt demands than that of the uk? And the Greeks have respect for their politicians? This is Alice in Wonderland stuff. 

And how does your thesis that Scandinavian countries are compliant square with the current highest infection rate in Europe being in Sweden?

The reality is that the uk populace complied extraordinarily well until it became clear the govt held us in contempt. And then further compounded things with mixed and confused messages. 

Your ideas are totally at odds with the facts. 

Like your earlier herd immunity nonsense.


----------



## srw (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I agree Brazil will probably soon overtake the US in terms of infection rate, but I also reckon they will recover quicker from it afterwards. Even the US will probably recover quicker than most of the developed West. Europe will continue to be a complete shoot show, especially in the South.
> 
> Very few countries have had what you could call a "good" pandemic. Most have either had a lot of infection, or a lot of lockdown inflicted economic damage, or worse still - both.


That's certainly a take.

It's not a take I could agree with. The economic damage comes not just (and probably not mainly) from the short-term government-imposed restrictions, but from the fear, the long-term sickness and the death caused by the infection. Which will all go on for years to come. My best guess is that New Zealand and Australia will recover quickly, continental Europe will do pretty well because they've had relatively low rates of infection and are all but clean now, the UK will be the laggard in Europe (not helped by the bizarre self-inflicted wound of making it difficult to trade with our largest partners), and the US and Brazil will be devastated.

The best way to recover from the the virus in the UK would be to do what Germany and New Zealand have done - hit it very hard indeed so that it goes away as far as possible.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (29 Jun 2020)

Possibly wo weeks extra for Leicestershire:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53217095


----------



## tom73 (29 Jun 2020)

Call for PTSD screening for survivors as they appear to be at risk. This appears to be extra to the all ready known PTSD like effect of being on a ventilator. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53214482


----------



## SpokeyDokey (29 Jun 2020)

And south of Beijing:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53216047


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (29 Jun 2020)

Australia and NZ are both countries with an overall low population density and often very long distances between population centres. Outside of a few big cities, most of the country is virtually empty! If you wanted to have a severe pandemic in either country, you would have to actively spread the disease.
Controlling the virus in both countries was relatively easy, and I agree neither will take that much of a hit from it.

I think you overstate the hysteria surrounding the virus. Much of it is largely media created anyway. Most people I know are simply not concerned about it at all, unless they themselves are in a high risk group with a likely bad outcome if they go down with a dose. The majority are simply fed up with the lockdown, fed up with things not being fully open as normal, and fed up with having to stand in silly queues when they go about their daily activity. When all this nonsense gets abandoned they will soon return to their normal social routines and spend their money in the economy, irrespective of whether there is still any virus around or not.


----------



## mjr (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Australia and NZ are both countries with an overall low population density and often very long distances between population centres. Outside of a few big cities, most of the country is virtually empty!


They're not one country!

But even aside from that, they've done better in controlling the spread even in those population centres than the UK did, haven't they?


----------



## Johnno260 (29 Jun 2020)

Some media coverage has been disgusting the only story I actively followed was Colonel Tom.

The idiots cramming the beaches are morons for a few reasons, I think it's too soon, the garbage they left behind is in-excusable regardless of the situation, if people think I'm being overly sensitive on this well my wife is on the front line.

Same reason I think opening bars is too soon, some people can't act responsible while sober, opening has positives but I can't see how people will act responsibly, the bars will be a war zone and in turn A&E will be full of idiots the following day..


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If you wanted to have a severe pandemic in either country, you would have to actively spread the disease



An interesting hypothesis. 

Let's test it.

Here's the case data for a few countries, on a log scale. 

Straight line = exponential growth, gradient of line = doubling time. 







Here's the thing. The slopes early in the outbreak are the same. _The virus spread at almost the same rate everywhere until controls were put in place. _The data very clearly disprove your theory. 



SkipdiverJohn said:


> Controlling the virus in both countries was relatively easy, and I agree neither will take that much of a hit from it



More nonsense. It wasn't easy. They were, and are, just a lot more rigorous than we have been. 

Like Greece. Vietnam. Germany. Cuba. Etc etc etc


----------



## Mugshot (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Australia and NZ are both countries with an overall low population density and often very long distances between population centres. Outside of a few big cities, most of the country is virtually empty! If you wanted to have a severe pandemic in either country, you would have to actively spread the disease.
> Controlling the virus in both countries was relatively easy, and I agree neither will take that much of a hit from it.


Population density Brazil - approx 62 per sq mile, population density New Zealand - 46 per sq mile. It's not so different.

New Zealand #202 in the world
Brazil #188 in the world


----------



## vickster (29 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> If it's true, why has Scotland fared better than England? Scotland has 30% of adults obese compared to 27% in England


What does that 30% relate to in absolute numbers vs. 27% in terms of Covis cases?. England population is 10x that of Scotland nearly


----------



## Rezillo (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Most people I know are simply not concerned about it at all



Why does that not surprise me?


----------



## tom73 (29 Jun 2020)

Mobile testing units to double still not even enough and why have we still not a walk in option as other counties have?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53213676
We still look to be on the number game and not on what you do with it route. As the number of tests carried out stopped being reported weeks ago we still no idea how effective it all is.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (29 Jun 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Population density Brazil - approx 62 per sq mile, population density New Zealand - 46 per sq mile. It's not so different.



The nature of the population distribution is vastly different. Brazil has many millions of people living in slum shanty towns in addition to the permanent urban built environment. New Zealand doesn't have that situation. I wouldn't mind betting a high proportion of the coronavirus cases in Brazil are in the slums and the most densely populated parts of major cities. It's starting to really kick off in India now too, and I would suspect the city slums are where it is spreading the fastest.
First world countries have a higher proportion of office type jobs where the population can do things like homeworking to minimise contact. Countries further down the development pecking order can't do that to the same extent. There are a whole host of reasons why the impact of the virus has not been uniform.


----------



## mjr (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The one to watch is Brazil, where the most useful picture of the real potency of the virus will emerge very soon, since there has been relatively little attempt to interfere with it's natural progression.


Except from testing vaccines there, you mean?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...to-be-first-to-test-oxfords-covid-19-vaccine/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-vaccine-idUSKBN23W2FJ

But yes, until that kicks in, we can see the clusterfark unfold and be thankful that even Boris wasn't quite that bad.


----------



## mjr (29 Jun 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Try that it any market in Italy (even pre-Covid) and you'll be given short shrift.


Ah but many real market traders have some pride in their work and if they sell shoot then they probably won't be selling much for long, whereas most of the UK buys from "super"markets staffed by low-wage workers with little control over which section of the shop they work in, let alone what they stock, while many of the chain buyers have long histories of sharp practices, from the Victorian-era chalk in the flour onwards.


----------



## mjr (29 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> If it's anything like everything else this clown's government does it'll be "We _suggest_ you don't eat that teacake", "We _strongly urge_ you to limit second helpings", "We _advise_ you to chew your sausages more carefully"


...while continuing to stuff themselves full of cream cakes!

Also, while yes, it's victim-blaming, what is Boris saying about himself? I guess it's easier for him to blame his eating habits than his mania for shaking hands or his mismanagement of the crisis.


----------



## srw (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> First world countries have a higher proportion of office type jobs where the population can do things like homeworking to minimise contact. Countries further down the development pecking order can't do that to the same extent.


None of which really explains why the US has been so badly affected, or why China has had quite a good crisis so far. 


SkipdiverJohn said:


> I think you overstate the hysteria surrounding the virus. Much of it is largely media created anyway. *Most people I know* are simply not concerned about it at all, unless they themselves are in a high risk group with a likely bad outcome if they go down with a dose.


If you use "people I know" as a reference, it's not surprising they tend to agree with you. Here's some more reliable data.


----------



## mjr (29 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> Public toilets are shut around here.
> 
> According to news outlets it's the majority of the country.


There were closures in North Norfolk and Yarmouth Borough but then they realised the obvious consequences were worse and they reopened most of them. As far as I've heard and from what I've seen on my rides, they've not been closed in West Norfolk, Fenland or the Forestry England visitor centres except when some hosting buildings were closed early during lockdown.

I can't confirm that it's the majority but I see there are so many shoot councils that the government wrote to ask them all to stop being piss-poor yesterday https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-on-the-re-opening-of-public-toilets-and-tips - but it's typical of this wishy-washy damp-rag government that it's only "should" not "must" even for this pretty basic public service.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (29 Jun 2020)

vickster said:


> What does that 30% relate to in absolute numbers vs. 27% in terms of Covis cases?. England population is 10x that of Scotland nearly


It's not related to Covid - it's the overall obesity rate (when using BMI as a gauge).


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (29 Jun 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/FINALLEVEL/status/1277354782227722240


----------



## vickster (29 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> It's not related to Covid - it's the overall obesity rate (when using BMI as a gauge).


Wasn’t your point tho that the death rate with Covid is lower in Scotland despite higher obesity (Scotland doing better)? But I’m not sure whether you meant as a percentage or absolute?

you said...
If it's true, why has Scotland fared better than England? Scotland has 30% of adults obese compared to 27% in England

I’m confused...if faring better not related to Covid what was the point being made?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (29 Jun 2020)

vickster said:


> Wasn’t your point tho that the death rate with Covid is lower in Scotland despite higher obesity (Scotland doing better)? But I’m not sure whether you meant as a percentage or absolute?
> 
> you said...
> If it's true, why has Scotland fared better than England? Scotland has 30% of adults obese compared to 27% in England
> ...


The point is Boris is blaming obesity for a ridiculously high death rate but there is more obesity in Scotland and a lower death rate compared to England.


----------



## Mugshot (29 Jun 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The nature of the population distribution is vastly different. Brazil has many millions of people living in slum shanty towns in addition to the permanent urban built environment. New Zealand doesn't have that situation. I wouldn't mind betting a high proportion of the coronavirus cases in Brazil are in the slums and the most densely populated parts of major cities. It's starting to really kick off in India now too, and I would suspect the city slums are where it is spreading the fastest.
> First world countries have a higher proportion of office type jobs where the population can do things like homeworking to minimise contact. Countries further down the development pecking order can't do that to the same extent. There are a whole host of reasons why the impact of the virus has not been uniform.


Exactly right, the socio-economic conditions are of enormous importance, which brings us back to the governance of the country. You said it was down to population density in general, you didn't distinguish between types.


----------



## vickster (29 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The point is Boris is blaming obesity for a ridiculously high death rate but there is more obesity in Scotland and a lower death rate compared to England.


How are you quantifying the death rate, and among what sub samples (age, gender, ethnicity, mixture of the above, all of which are also deemed risk factors)? It’s clearly multifactorial. That was my question?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Jun 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Exactly right, the socio-economic conditions are of enormous importance, which brings us back to the governance of the country. You said it was down to population density in general, you didn't distinguish between types.



Given the massive disparity between countries in similar socioeconomic circumstances, it seems that governance is the overriding issue.

Population density is obviously a potential issue, but seems (Hong Kong...) clearly not to be decisive.


----------



## mjr (29 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> The point is Boris is blaming obesity for a ridiculously high death rate but there is more obesity in Scotland and a lower death rate compared to England.


To be fair, I'm also blaming fat for the high death rate, but I'm blaming Boris's fat head!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (29 Jun 2020)

vickster said:


> How are you quantifying the death rate, and among what sub samples (age, gender, ethnicity, mixture of the above, all of which are also deemed risk factors)? It’s clearly multifactorial. That was my question?


I'm not drilling too deep but I've probably put more thought into it than Johnson's "It's your own fault fatties" line.


----------



## vickster (29 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm not drilling too deep but I've probably put more thought into it than Johnson's "It's your own fault fatties" line.


Dunno. I’m not taking much notice of what he says


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (29 Jun 2020)

One of my colleagues has been taken off furlough and is out visiting factories today. Two timber frame companies this morning, not a mask in sight, no social distancing at all and only a couple of posters on the wall. He of course is wearing the full PPE we've been issued - plastic face guard, mask, gloves etc and he's getting laughed at. "fark Covid" as one guy said to him.


----------



## fossyant (29 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> One of my colleagues has been taken off furlough and is out visiting factories today. Two timber frame companies this morning, not a mask in sight, no social distancing at all and only a couple of posters on the wall. He of course is wearing the full PPE we've been issued - plastic face guard, mask, gloves etc and he's getting laughed at. "fark Covid" as one guy said to him.



Honestly, these are the places where the virus will continue to spread, just as is happening in the food processing plants - 4 or 5 now. Schools getting shut etc.


----------



## Chris S (29 Jun 2020)

Wales has the highest number of corona virus cases per 100,000 people than anywhere else in the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-confirmed-covid-19-cases#Echobox=1593160316

It's surprising given their stricter lockdown rules and the fact that they won't allow people from England in.


----------



## pawl (29 Jun 2020)

Looks like Leicester is on its way to lockdown.Dont know how it’s going to be managed as it areas on the eastern side of the city Mayor of Leicester Peter Soulsby is more interested in finding reasons for not looking not to look at solutions

Edit Apparently the suggestion is to extend the current lockdown for a further two weeks.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Jun 2020)

Chris S said:


> Wales has the highest number of corona virus cases per 100,000 people than anywhere else in the UK.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-confirmed-covid-19-cases#Echobox=1593160316
> 
> It's surprising given their stricter lockdown rules and the fact that they won't allow people from England in.



The total caseload is likely more related to the prevalence at the time of loackdown than anything else.

The rate of decrease should be related to how well observed social distancing, track and trace etc has been.

What's the *current* rate of infection in Wales?









I've not done the maths, but eyeballing that it _looks _like a steeper decline than the overall UK so lower current per capita, which would indicate the lockdown and other measures to suppress have indeed been more effective than in England. But like I say, that's just eyeballing, which isn't a reliable statistical tool!


----------



## mjr (29 Jun 2020)

Chris S said:


> Wales has the highest number of corona virus cases per 100,000 people than anywhere else in the UK.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-confirmed-covid-19-cases#Echobox=1593160316
> 
> It's surprising given their stricter lockdown rules and the fact that they won't allow people from England in.


Is it surprising? It looked like much of their extra restrictions had naff all to do with coronavirus and everything to do with MS prejudices. It seemed especially counterproductive to keep advising to restrict all time outdoors (and more harshly than England ever did) and to stay near home when you do go out when we know the flipping thing spreads more easily indoors and it seems likely that it spreads more easily in built-up areas.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (29 Jun 2020)

Sturgeon reported as saying that she ‘has no plans’ to quarantine tourists from England but it sounds as if she is keeping her options open. It’s news to me that she’s even allowed to do this. The Scottish Conservatives are arguing that she shouldn’t as it will harm tourism. You’d think if she genuinely wasn’t allowed to do it they would be pointing this out too.
Begs the question of how it could possibly be policed and enforced. 
It would be much simpler if she could simply close the border.


----------



## MntnMan62 (29 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> You often make some quite out there and shoot from the hip comments on this thread without explanation.
> 
> Yours is opinion only. Handling of fruit and vegetables with bare hands varies heavily on cultural background and individual difference.
> 
> You are just very different from some others on this thread.



Maybe. But I'm not very different from most of the people I know. And collectively the people I know and associate with are extremely mindful of this virus, social distance and wear masks. Off the cuff? Hardly. You don't have to agree with what I say. And I always provide explanation. Maybe you should be a little more open to other people's point of view.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Jun 2020)

Latest govt dashboard shows hospitalizations essentially static. 






We seem now to be no longer significantly reducing virus transmission. 

We've had pre warning (see Bournemouth) that attitudes are not helping. 

Why the fark are we opening pubs at all until rates are clearly falling, let alone on a farking Saturday??

Madness. All this effort to drive things down and both govt and a large proportion of people seem determined to go back where we just left. 

farking insane.


----------



## midlife (29 Jun 2020)

Leicester locked down again, wonder why they didn't do it last week 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Leicester locked down again, wonder why they didn't do it last week
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371



And why we're not asking the question : 

"Given even our current restrictions are not working in Leicester, why the fark are we further relaxing things farking anywhere until we understand and have national countermeasures in place?"

Grrr.

[Looks like I need to find the rant thread...]


----------



## fossyant (29 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Leicester locked down again, wonder why they didn't do it last week
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371



They have been dithering. Anglesey and Wrexham areas need locking down too.


----------



## mjr (29 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Leicester locked down again, wonder why they didn't do it last week
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371


Is it a lockdown if they can just go to Derby or Birmingham?

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/SiAngear/status/1277705770876809216


----------



## midlife (29 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Is it a lockdown if they can just go to Derby or Birmingham?
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/SiAngear/status/1277705770876809216




Cordon sanitaire........ But I very much doubt it.


----------



## Tanis8472 (30 Jun 2020)

midlife said:


> Cordon sanitaire........ But I very much doubt it.




fark me  
The replies 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/newschambers/status/1277382845141413888


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (30 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Is it a lockdown if they can just go to Derby or Birmingham?
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/SiAngear/status/1277705770876809216



And worse than that, as things currently stand, come Friday there will be nothing to stop residents of Leicester and other affected areas travelling to holiday cottages anywhere up here, regardless of how remote and vulnerable the local community.


----------



## All uphill (30 Jun 2020)

You will remember the warning Italy's rapid increase sent out in February, March, which should have alerted governments.

Now we are getting a similar warning from growing numbers of cases, following early relaxation of lockdown in some of the southern states of the US.

Our government's response? Ignore the inconvenient facts, fingers crossed, go for it!


----------



## DaveReading (30 Jun 2020)

All uphill said:


> You will remember the warning Italy's rapid increase sent out in February, March, which should have alerted governments.
> 
> Now we are getting a similar warning from growing numbers of cases, following early relaxation of lockdown in some of the southern states of the US.
> 
> Our government's response? Ignore the inconvenient facts, fingers crossed, go for it!



To be fair, that seems to be the US government's response too ...


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (30 Jun 2020)

mjr said:


> Is it a lockdown if they can just go to Derby or Birmingham?
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/SiAngear/status/1277705770876809216




It's ok to travel from Leicester to other areas if you're checking your eyesight.


----------



## CanucksTraveller (30 Jun 2020)

All uphill said:


> Now we are getting a similar warning from growing numbers of cases, following early relaxation of lockdown in some of the southern states of the US.



Indeed, and California state are the latest to start reversing their easing of measures, and are ordering bars to be closed again in many counties as of Friday. LA County will also close beaches after a 45% increase in infections last week, and 3000 new cases yesterday which is the highest number since the pandemic began. 

Looks like the US is a bad place to be at the moment. 😔

Having said that, most US states were at least two to 3 weeks behind the UK in introducing restrictions, and also 2 to 3 weeks ahead of us in easing them. (Bars and restaurants have been open for many weeks now in many states or counties). So most states were under a similar form of "lockdown" to us for about a month less than we were. 
I think New York State was the only state that I'd hold up as a better example of taking things seriously, they acted earlier and with more conviction.


----------



## Mo1959 (30 Jun 2020)

Here's hoping we have a grip on it before the next one! 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-5...gm6mKj1Co5ubXQxzYydIy_0OTziho5n-3tiyvsx0eOlYI


----------



## tom73 (30 Jun 2020)

Not only do we have the government steaming ahead we still have many who even now. After all what's happened and the massive loss of life
still don't want to understand any of this, still think it's a joke and just don't care. Come the 4th they will joined by even more who have been a bit 50/50 about this. Who now just want to party and go back to normal because the government say's it's fine. For me the actions and attitude of the don't care or stuff everyone has long past being personal. I've never seen Mrs 73 so knackered and worn out I know she's not the only one many are now running on empty. The NHS may have capacity for now but the staff don't. Just as things slow down and they all have chance of well earned reboot. Things look to be gearing up for even more.


----------



## Johnno260 (30 Jun 2020)

like Tom said, the damage to the key worker staff can't really be measured at this point.

Come Sunday morning I'm sure the A&E departments will be full of people picked off the streets drunk, I would fine everyone of them, they can pay for the ambulance and the crews time, I would also charge them for any resources wasted on them and the cost of a bed for the night.

I always said drunk people should be charged before this current situation, the NHS isn't there to babysit imbeciles who can't moderate their alcohol intake.


----------



## tom73 (30 Jun 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Indeed, and California state are the latest to start reversing their easing of measures, and are ordering bars to be closed again in many counties as of Friday. LA County will also close beaches after a 45% increase in infections last week, and 3000 new cases yesterday which is the highest number since the pandemic began.
> 
> Looks like the US is a bad place to be at the moment. 😔
> 
> ...



With New York one thing stands out they have for some time enforced and successfully educated people about wearing face coverings.
Not the wishy washy message we are getting it's interesting that face coverings. Are now being seen by economists as part of economic recovery. A number of recent papers on covid economic recovery all see them playing a part. Simple public health messages work sadly we aren't getting them.


----------



## PaulSB (30 Jun 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Aren't we about the 3rd or 4th most obese nation in Europe?
> 
> _If_ obesity is definitely a factor in Covid death rates then he may well have a point.
> 
> Obviously if it is it is not the only factor but it really wouldn't hurt if the nation was put on a diet (and started cycling more ).


I popped in here to ask a question as I know you guys have spent much time discussing and reading around the subject.

I happened to notice this post and would like to offer what I have been told. I live 5-6 miles from a town with a high ethnic population, the town suffers deprivation and I would guess diet, general health is below average. I know an ICU doctor at the hospital serving the local area. He has told me those in ICU are one or more of the following BAME, smokers, obese. No evidence, nothing peer reviewed etc. just a doctor on the front line.

I know another doctor at a hospital at a hospital 30+ miles away. There is an area of the town known for high levels of social deprivation. She commented "once it gets in to that community (with all the inherent health issues) we are in trouble " It did and hospital admissions rose dramatically. Again no evidence just a front line doctor's experience.


----------



## tom73 (30 Jun 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> like Tom said, the damage to the key worker staff can't really be measured at this point.
> 
> Come Sunday morning I'm sure the A&E departments will be full of people picked off the streets drunk, I would fine everyone of them, they can pay for the ambulance and the crews time, I would also charge them for any resources wasted on them and the cost of a bed for the night.
> 
> I always said drunk people should be charged before this current situation, the NHS isn't there to babysit imbeciles who can't moderate their alcohol intake.



Be a pretty big bill even when empty a hospital bed cost's about £800 a day. One's who have a real ongoing issue with drink need help alcohol creeps up on you and it's effects are horrific. The rest need a real talking to maybe the pubs who have silly promotions and play on the idea of a Saturday night out getting wacko. Are the ones who need to pay for the mess they leave to other to sort out. 

As for damage to key staff it's hard to forget us is all this we've not have the best of time either.


----------



## newfhouse (30 Jun 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I popped in here to ask a question as I know you guys have spent much time discussing and reading around the subject.
> 
> I happened to notice this post and would like to offer what I have been told. I live 5-6 miles from a town with a high ethnic population, the town suffers deprivation and I would guess diet, general health is below average. I know an ICU doctor at the hospital serving the local area. He has told me those in ICU are one or more of the following BAME, smokers, obese. No evidence, nothing peer reviewed etc. just a doctor on the front line.
> 
> I know another doctor at a hospital at a hospital 30+ miles away. There is an area of the town known for high levels of social deprivation. She commented "once it gets in to that community (with all the inherent health issues) we are in trouble " It did and hospital admissions rose dramatically. Again no evidence just a front line doctor's experience.


Poverty kills. Who knew?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Jun 2020)

All uphill said:


> You will remember the warning Italy's rapid increase sent out in February, March, which should have alerted governments.
> 
> Now we are getting a similar warning from growing numbers of cases, following early relaxation of lockdown in some of the southern states of the US.
> 
> Our government's response? Ignore the inconvenient facts, fingers crossed, go for it!



Precisely this


----------



## PaulSB (30 Jun 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Poverty kills. Who knew?


Yep, I agree. That's a whole other subject and I've no desire to get involved, just offering what two frontline doctors have told me.


----------



## tom73 (30 Jun 2020)

PaulSB said:


> I popped in here to ask a question as I know you guys have spent much time discussing and reading around the subject.
> 
> I happened to notice this post and would like to offer what I have been told. I live 5-6 miles from a town with a high ethnic population, the town suffers deprivation and I would guess diet, general health is below average. I know an ICU doctor at the hospital serving the local area. He has told me those in ICU are one or more of the following BAME, smokers, obese. No evidence, nothing peer reviewed etc. just a doctor on the front line.
> 
> I know another doctor at a hospital at a hospital 30+ miles away. There is an area of the town known for high levels of social deprivation. She commented "once it gets in to that community (with all the inherent health issues) we are in trouble " It did and hospital admissions rose dramatically. Again no evidence just a front line doctor's experience.



That's about right most studies on covid have one thing in common what ever conditions , ethnic back ground ect. You may have they all say don't be poor. Most public health is complex but being poor is always the one thing you put down 1st on the list.


----------



## PaulSB (30 Jun 2020)

To ask my question. Amongst my regular cycling group there is a simple question. If we begin visiting cafes and someone else in the cafe later contracts Covid-19 what happens?

Will we get a phone call and be required to test or would we have to self-isolate immediately for 14 days?

I really would appreciate help on this and perhaps a link to the official guidance etc. We are questioning whether or not to visit cafes. We are confident we can protect ourselves and don't want to self-isolate because of someone else's situation.

Thanks and sorry to interrupt the thread theme.


----------



## fossyant (30 Jun 2020)

PaulSB said:


> To ask my question. Amongst my regular cycling group there is a simple question. If we begin visiting cafes and someone else in the cafe later contracts Covid-19 what happens?
> 
> Will we get a phone call and be required to test or would we have to self-isolate immediately for 14 days?
> 
> ...



Potentially, if someone there had it, you should isolate, but unless a cafe is is writing down names (Gerrant Thomas, Rob Hales, Chris Hoy - gettit !) then they couldn't trace you. - TBH, get takeaway and go sit with your bikes in the fresh air. 

God knows what's going to happen when the seasonal colds and cough's come round - mad panic and you'll be sent home for 2 weeks ?


----------



## DCLane (30 Jun 2020)

PaulSB said:


> To ask my question. Amongst my regular cycling group there is a simple question. If we begin visiting cafes and someone else in the cafe later contracts Covid-19 what happens?
> 
> Will we get a phone call and be required to test or would we have to self-isolate immediately for 14 days?
> 
> I really would appreciate help on this and perhaps a link to the official guidance etc. We are questioning whether or not to visit cafes. We are confident we can protect ourselves and don't want to self-isolate because of someone else's situation.



The likelihood is yes, you'll have to self-isolate. How this will be monitored I haven't a clue at this stage. To date cafes have been take-out only, although that has simply meant tables / areas outside.

It'd be the same if you're on a club ride and one of the members riding has symptoms.

The only difference compared to March is there's now the facilities; the Nightingale's are there in stasis. New staff are trained. Other, unannounced, facilities have been developed. For example SWMBO's Covid-19 rehab facility currently has 12 patients in. In March they had space for up to 16, but they were all occupied by patients with stroke/other disorders. Now there's space for 40 with 9 Covid-19 rehab in there already and only 3 for non-Covid rehab. The youngest is only 26.

The 'lockdown', which in many cases near me never actually happened, wasn't about removing this virus. It was about gaining time to build capacity to treat patients. Like others have put above I live in an ethnic minority town where cases are high. No meeting together? That's just been ignored by many. No hairdressers / places of worship open? Again ignored.


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## Johnno260 (30 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Be a pretty big bill even when empty a hospital bed cost's about £800 a day. One's who have a real ongoing issue with drink need help alcohol creeps up on you and it's effects are horrific. The rest need a real talking to maybe the pubs who have silly promotions and play on the idea of a Saturday night out getting wacko. Are the ones who need to pay for the mess they leave to other to sort out.
> 
> As for damage to key staff it's hard to forget us is all this we've not have the best of time either.



True on people with a problem there would need to be exemptions, but for others just getting picked up for over drinking the only thing they understand is hitting their pockets, same with these people flytipping on beaches as I don't know what else to call it fine them harshly to set an example.


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## mjr (30 Jun 2020)

PaulSB said:


> To ask my question. Amongst my regular cycling group there is a simple question. If we begin visiting cafes and someone else in the cafe later contracts Covid-19 what happens?
> 
> Will we get a phone call and be required to test or would we have to self-isolate immediately for 14 days?


Not if you followed guidance and stayed 2m apart. You would not be "close contacts". https://www.gov.uk/guidance/nhs-test-and-trace-how-it-works#what-we-will-ask-you

Ignore the scaremongers. You can spot them by no links to gov.uk or nhs.uk


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## tom73 (30 Jun 2020)

DCLane said:


> The likelihood is yes, you'll have to self-isolate. How this will be monitored I haven't a clue at this stage. To date cafes have been take-out only, although that has simply meant tables / areas outside.
> 
> It'd be the same if you're on a club ride and one of the members riding has symptoms.
> 
> ...



Do you know what's the word on the current capacity at the Mary Seacole rehab centre ? It's all gone quiet in the mainstream media and government never talks about it either.


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## roubaixtuesday (30 Jun 2020)

The government is not learning. 

First peak: much worse because of dithering pre lockdown. 

Leicester outbreak: much worse because of dithering pre lockdown. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...087cbba797e485#block-5efaf81a8f087cbba797e485

We desperately need a serious government. 

Less pressups. Less braggadocio. More decisiveness. Better organisation. Take the virus seriously.


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## DCLane (30 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> Do you know what's the word on the current capacity at the Mary Seacole rehab centre ? It's all gone quiet in the mainstream media and government never talks about it either.



No detailed information I'm afraid - SWMBO's in conversation with their Dietitian but I only get anecdotal knowledge so won't share it here.

All the brouhaha about success and easing restrictions hides a detailed set of preparations for many, many more seriously ill underneath.


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## raleighnut (30 Jun 2020)

Leicester doesn't seem to be a good place to live at the minute, did I mention I used to live in 'Spinney Hills' (Highfields)


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## tom73 (30 Jun 2020)

hydroxychloroquine trial back on after UK regulator ok's it again with Healthcare works the guinea pigs  
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-5...s/business&link_location=live-reporting-story


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## cyberknight (30 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> hydroxychloroquine trial back on after UK regulator ok's it again with Healthcare works the guinea pigs
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-5...s/business&link_location=live-reporting-story


is that the one that just shortens the time you have it by 4 days and not a cure ?


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## Salty seadog (30 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> If it's true, why has Scotland fared better than England? Scotland has 30% of adults obese compared to 27% in England



I would suggest the lower population density would be a factor.


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## Joey Shabadoo (30 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> I would suggest the lower population density would be a factor.


I'll take that as the compliment it was intended to be


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## tom73 (30 Jun 2020)

cyberknight said:


> is that the one that just shortens the time you have it by 4 days and not a cure ?


No it's more like the one that's likely to get you before covid has a chance.


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## Flick of the Elbow (30 Jun 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> I would suggest the lower population density would be a factor.


Putting my head over the parapet, I would suggest there’s been a far greater public compliance with govt advice here than down south. Yes there’s been the odd photo of Loch Lomond/Portobello/city centre parks but those haven’t been anything like the scale of the south coast beaches, the city centre raves, the huge protest marches that have been shown from England. 
I suggest that the Scottish public have been buying in to Sturgeon’s message far more strongly than the English public have been buying into that of Boris. There’s been widespread comment that Sturgeon’s message has been clearer. Also, Sturgeon is seen as championing the cause of the Scottish people, most Scots see her as one of their own so are more likely to comply with her directions. Most English do not see Boris as one of their own.


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## tom73 (30 Jun 2020)

She has one thing in common with Boris though they've both sadly really dropped the ball with care homes.


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## fossyant (30 Jun 2020)

You'll find public co-operation has varied. It's been mainly good in South and East Manchester, with little pockets of those that couldn't give a monkey. Apparently the city centre is back to normal levels of people.


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## fossyant (30 Jun 2020)

tom73 said:


> She has one thing in common with Boris though they've both sadly really dropped the ball with care homes.



They all have, and it's being shushed up !


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## Salty seadog (30 Jun 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'll take that as the compliment it was intended to be



You're welcome sir.


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## marinyork (30 Jun 2020)

It's a very, very... bad world

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug


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## Adam4868 (30 Jun 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's a very, very... bad world
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug


Leader of the free world....at least we'll be ok with our "special relationship" won't we ?


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## tom73 (30 Jun 2020)

The US look to be going from bad to worse at an alarming rate. They are now talking about if things don't improve soon. Daily cases may hit 100,000 a day.


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## PaulSB (1 Jul 2020)

@fossyant @DCLane @mjr - thanks for your responses. I've now been able to reach my own conclusion which I've chucked in to the general chat we are having.

Thanks again.


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## Flick of the Elbow (1 Jul 2020)

It’s clear that the virus is still insufficiently controlled across large parts of England.






Now is not the time for residents of England to be allowed unfettered access to the length and breadth of their neighbouring counties.


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## brodiej (1 Jul 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1277960112691273728?s=19


Interesting thread here about the Government not publishing Pillar 2 data

Pillar 1 are cases in health care workers and hospital. Pillar 2 are everyone else and account for over 80% of cases but the Government refuses to publish this.

Here are the graphs for Leicester showing why they have a problem. 











Apparently it was a ministerial decision to hide the figures. 
It's crazy and makes it so hard to make informed decisions as an individual. Should I send my kids back to school? It depends on the prevalence of the virus in the local community but we don't know that!!


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## tom73 (1 Jul 2020)

Leicester appear to have only got detailed information on Thursday so that was pointless for them act quick. It's taken 10 day's for Matt to do anything. Even though Leicester equalled 10 % of national cases and hospital admissions went though the roof.
Meanwhile last week Australia had an outbreak of just 44 cases in one state overnight 43 in one area. Went in full on and contained it. 
Come the 4th we still don't have a hope of controlling any of this. Even many of pubs and shops locally that are saying they are opening. 
In interviews clearly don't have a clue what they are doing. Having looked up the data locally it's alarming even now. Think I better stock up ready a lockdown.


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## midlife (1 Jul 2020)

brodiej said:


> View: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1277960112691273728?s=19
> 
> 
> Interesting thread here about the Government not publishing Pillar 2 data
> ...




I wonder if there's any way of finding out the pillar 2 data for the rest of the country ?


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## tom73 (1 Jul 2020)

I've just found my council's Covid outbreak plan I had a feeling it was not going to much good. As it start's with Our vision is.... It's a public health matter not a funding bid.


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## deptfordmarmoset (1 Jul 2020)

cyberknight said:


> is that the one that just shortens the time you have it by 4 days and not a cure ?


I think you may be thinking of Remdesivir, the one the US has just cornered all the available stock of.


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Jul 2020)

The govt is not learning 2/n


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1278273370312900609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


We have a higher rate of transmission than successful countries when they relaxed lock downs. 

We have measures currently delivering a rate of transmission barely dropping and in some areas actually rising. 

Our replacement for these measures is a track and trace system which is patently nowhere near effective enough to make an impact. 

Our conclusion: we should significantly relax social distancing. We should not impose other measures such as mask wearing. 

I fear we will rapidly go in the wrong direction. Potential very rapidly.


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## raleighnut (1 Jul 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> It’s clear that the virus is still insufficiently controlled across large parts of England.
> View attachment 533501
> 
> 
> Now is not the time for residents of England to be allowed unfettered access to the length and breadth of their neighbouring countries.


As a Leicester Resident I for one won't be rushing to the Pub/Shop for the foreseeable.


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Jul 2020)

The govt is not learning 3/n

Headline data on transmission rates is massively misleading, particularly at local level. 

Rapid dissemination and follow up of test data at local level is critical to control without lock down. 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1277960119611871234


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## tom73 (1 Jul 2020)

If we don't get a grip of the figures how to use them and who need's them at time they need them. Get testing options and availably better at a ground level. Get the turn around and results better joined up. Underlined with effective tracking and clear simple not conflicting public health messages. All sorted my the autumn which is quickly coming down the line then we are toast.


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## DCLane (1 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> If we don't get a grip [shortened] by the autumn which is quickly coming down the line then we are toast.



I've come to the conclusion the government doesn't intend to sort it. Just to let things run.


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## raleighnut (1 Jul 2020)

DCLane said:


> I've come to the conclusion the government doesn't intend to sort it. Just to let things run.


Sadly I think you're right.


----------



## pawl (1 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> As a Leicester Resident I for one won't be rushing to the Pub/Shop for the foreseeable.



I don’t live far from Leicester.Only tend to visit the out skirts of Leicester Fosse Park for M & S food hall and South Wigston for the bike shop. 

Hope the lockdown doesn’t last to long for you.


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## GilesM (1 Jul 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Putting my head over the parapet, I would suggest there’s been a far greater public compliance with govt advice here than down south. Yes there’s been the odd photo of Loch Lomond/Portobello/city centre parks but those haven’t been anything like the scale of the south coast beaches, the city centre raves, the huge protest marches that have been shown from England.
> I suggest that the Scottish public have been buying in to Sturgeon’s message far more strongly than the English public have been buying into that of Boris. There’s been widespread comment that Sturgeon’s message has been clearer. Also, Sturgeon is seen as championing the cause of the Scottish people, most Scots see her as one of their own so are more likely to comply with her directions. Most English do not see Boris as one of their own.



I'm not so sure you're right, just more obvious down south as there are lots more people in less space, this article gives a good example of what a few groups up here think of some of the lockdown rules. Personally I think people everywhere are just fed up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53247096


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## raleighnut (1 Jul 2020)

pawl said:


> I don’t live far from Leicester.Only tend to visit the out skirts of Leicester Fosse Park for M & S food hall and South Wigston for the bike shop.
> 
> Hope the lockdown doesn’t last to long for you.


I live out of the City but within it's area in Braunstone Frith (in between Braunstone, New Parks Kirby Frith and Glenfield) 

BTW I like the 'lockdown', it's been so peaceful.


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## marinyork (1 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> If we don't get a grip of the figures how to use them and who need's them at time they need them. Get testing options and availably better at a ground level. Get the turn around and results better joined up. Underlined with effective tracking and clear simple not conflicting public health messages. All sorted my the autumn which is quickly coming down the line then we are toast.



I think the government are just focusing on the saliva test (whenever that's rolled out properly) and gearing up for the winter. And the economy, holidays, schools and pubs.

I don't think Leicester is worth panicking around, what it seems to show to me is government ineptitude about sharing information (and a lot of promises going out live on air right now). It also shows that the numbers within giganticly large margins of error in Leicester were steady for about a month before going upwards. This is very broadly similar to other places in the world where for 1-2 months in places if there isn't a superspreader event things circulate for one to two months and take off.

Also the govenment and PHE need to do proper graphics. This leads to the sort of conclusion jumping we've seen on this thread. Leicester as far as can be gauged is far, far, far worse than the other yellow areas on that map, which those are in turn are far worse than many of the other areas in the north of England and Midlands. 

It's government ineptitude we need to worry most about.


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## raleighnut (1 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think the government are just focusing on the saliva test (whenever that's rolled out properly) and gearing up for the winter. And the economy, holidays, schools and pubs.
> 
> I don't think Leicester is worth panicking around, what it seems to show to me is government ineptitude about sharing information (and a lot of promises going out live on air right now). It also shows that the numbers within giganticly large margins of error in Leicester were steady for about a month before going upwards. This is very broadly similar to other places in the world where for 1-2 months in places if there isn't a superspreader event things circulate for one to two months and take off.
> 
> ...


There was no increase in cases here in Leicester until the restrictions began to be lifted (in fact previously the rates of infection were relatively low)


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## Slick (1 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> There was no increase in cases here in Leicester until the restrictions began to be lifted (in fact previously the rates of infection were relatively low)


I think that is the danger time for everyone and when we finally get out of our lockdown I'll be even more careful than before.


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## marinyork (1 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> There was no increase in cases here in Leicester until the restrictions began to be lifted (in fact previously the rates of infection were relatively low)



We had our county 'expert' on the local news yesterday saying that it's quite likely that they'll be borough or district outbreaks and local restrictions. They were very much saying the line they've said for a while very high housing density and multi-generational families in literally the same dwelling or nearby.

Leicester is just the first. It's what can be learned and whether that's passed onto other LAs or the government and enacted.

Most interesting thing to me today, John Bell thinks that the 71% of patients of covid-19 are asymptomatic is 'robust'. Highly relevant here. I've said it many times ever since the ONS published it, but it's not one the government seem to want to push, maybe due to uncertainties.


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## classic33 (1 Jul 2020)

Bradford is facing a lockdown, that's supposed to put Leicester in the shade.


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## tom73 (1 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think the government are just focusing on the saliva test (whenever that's rolled out properly) and gearing up for the winter. And the economy, holidays, schools and pubs.
> 
> I don't think Leicester is worth panicking around, what it seems to show to me is government ineptitude about sharing information (and a lot of promises going out live on air right now). It also shows that the numbers within giganticly large margins of error in Leicester were steady for about a month before going upwards. This is very broadly similar to other places in the world where for 1-2 months in places if there isn't a superspreader event things circulate for one to two months and take off.
> 
> ...



Hearing from public health that a new data sharing agreement has just been signed with the government. They more happy with what information they are now getting. However it's still not good enough for quick actions to be taken as they still have no way to access live information. Some are now setting up a process to record the word on the street from ones on the ground. To better understand what the picture looks like. It's a good idea but they still need the testing to back it all up.


Edit :- they are to get real time data after all the government has now done a u-turn. They are getting good at the of late.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (1 Jul 2020)

DCLane said:


> I've come to the conclusion the government doesn't intend to sort it. Just to let things run.



I've been thinking that for months... Remember when "herd immunity" was the intention and Dom wasn't bothered about a few old people dying? We've not moved on from that to be frank.


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## Johnno260 (1 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> As a Leicester Resident I for one won't be rushing to the Pub/Shop for the foreseeable.


I'm in the South East and will maintain the same isolation as I don't think we have this under control.


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## pawl (1 Jul 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I'm in the South East and will maintain the same isolation as I don't think we have this under control.




Sensible decision I’m doling the same Did go to my local Halfords to pick up The cycling shoes I had ordered click and collect Kiosk was at the entrance so didn’t have to go in the shop


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## deptfordmarmoset (1 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Hearing from public health that a new data sharing agreement has just been signed with the government. They more happy with what information they are now getting. However it's still not good enough for quick actions to be taken as they still have no way to access live information. Some are now setting up a process to record the word on the street from ones on the ground. To better understand what the picture looks like. It's a good idea but they still need the testing to back it all up.
> 
> 
> Edit :- they are to get real time data after all the government has now done a u-turn. They are getting good at the of late.


It turns out that Grayling's successor Hancock signed a contract with Deloitte without instructions to share the data with either local councils or Public Health England. https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2020-05-19.48980.h&p=24949


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## Johnno260 (1 Jul 2020)

pawl said:


> Sensible decision I’m doling the same Did go to my local Halfords to pick up The cycling shoes I had ordered click and collect Kiosk was at the entrance so didn’t have to go in the shop



Halfords for all the bad press they get have set up the store very well for click and collect, I needed bulbs as a bad fuse blew loads of mine.

Then a deer jumped in front of my wife while driving back from a shift and smashed the car to pieces so could say it was an unnecessary journey in hindsight haha


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## tom73 (2 Jul 2020)

Insiders tell's how testing failures have already cost lives, and why urgent improvements are needed before a second wave
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ighthouse-labs-nhs-deaths-delay-a9589381.html


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## tom73 (2 Jul 2020)

PPE remember Matt and co saying it's all just fine now. Turns out it's not faulty and out of date PPE is still being sent out and used. 
https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/workforce/continued-faulty-date-ppe-a-national-scandalbma/


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## Joey Shabadoo (2 Jul 2020)

Masks to be mandatory in Scottish shops from the end of next week.


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## mjr (2 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Masks to be mandatory in Scottish shops from the end of next week.


Edinburgh woollen mills?


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## MrGrumpy (2 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Masks to be mandatory in Scottish shops from the end of next week.



at the start of this pandemic i was not on board . Now however I am, Sturgeon has her critics rightly so but she has got a handle on this. This is the right thing to do currently and glad she is now making it mandatory!


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## Adam4868 (2 Jul 2020)

Why not make masks mandatory everywhere, Serious question ? What's the downside.


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## Joey Shabadoo (2 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Why not make masks mandatory everywhere, Serious question ? What's the downside.


tan lines


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## Julia9054 (2 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Edinburgh woollen mills?


Itchy


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## Julia9054 (2 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Why not make masks mandatory everywhere, Serious question ? What's the downside.


They are quite sweaty and uncomfortable and there is no benefit if you are outdoors and can easily socially distance.


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## qigong chimp (2 Jul 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Then a deer jumped in front of my wife while driving back from a shift and smashed the car to pieces so could say it was an unnecessary journey in hindsight haha/QUOTE]
> How was the deer?


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## Julia9054 (2 Jul 2020)

It is now an oh dear I expect


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## Mo1959 (2 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Masks to be mandatory in Scottish shops from the end of next week.


What’s the point now that the supposed rate here is so low? I could have understood doing this 2 months ago.


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## Joey Shabadoo (2 Jul 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> What’s the point now that the supposed rate here is so low? I could have understood doing this 2 months ago.


It's not zero though is it?


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## Mo1959 (2 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> It's not zero though is it?


Will it ever be?


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## Adam4868 (2 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> tan lines


Sorry should of said,for the benefit of scots 😷 on your face ?


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## tom73 (2 Jul 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> What’s the point now that the supposed rate here is so low? I could have understood doing this 2 months ago.


A horse and a blot came to mind. 
The rate is only down because it's been kept down. As things open up the rate will not stay low without extra measures.
Face coverings are all part of the jigsaw they don't stop the virus but they go a long way to dealing with asymptomatic transmission.


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## marinyork (2 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Why not make masks mandatory everywhere, Serious question ? What's the downside.



These days the governments focus on high risk occupations. These are security guards, bus drivers, care workers, some hospital workers, some retail, some manufacturing and so on. Research also focuses on people with a large number of interactions and very poorly ventilated workplaces (where it's quite hard to work out, but definitely of importance). 

The risk outdoors people have had a go at estimating and one study put it at 19x less likely to get the virus outside than inside. Others think it's less than that but at 2 metres distance outside is a vanishingly small chance unless an interaction is very lengthy.


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## marinyork (2 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Face coverings are all part of the jigsaw they don't stop the virus but they go a long way to dealing with asymptomatic transmission.



Which has now been confirmed, perhaps as definitely as you've ever going to get at the present, as 70% of cases, whereas very early on in the epidemic it was believed to be 20% and a bit later widely quoted by virologists as 40-50%. 

This is a very major change in knowledge which the politicians should be hammering home as to why things are needed.


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## roubaixtuesday (2 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> This is a very major change in knowledge which the politicians should be hammering home as to why things are needed



And yet again, Johnson's govt is late to the party. 

Sturgeon is on this today. 

Khan has been for weeks. 

Even Pence is nearly there FFS.

Johnson: Nope.

Probably, like everything else on COVID, the public will act and govt will follow. Too late. Yet again.


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## mjr (2 Jul 2020)

The Covid-19 Show is on again, 4.30 https://www.radiotimes.com/news/tv/2020-07-02/coronavirus-update-briefing-today/


----------



## Tanis8472 (2 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> The Covid-19 Show is on again, 4.30 https://www.radiotimes.com/news/tv/2020-07-02/coronavirus-update-briefing-today/


It was yesterday too.


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Probably, like everything else on COVID, the public will act and govt will follow. Too late. Yet again.



So you're one of the sheep who need to be told what to do by clueless politicians, because you can't make up your own mind?
If you want to wear a mask, go ahead and wear one. Knock yourself out and enjoy being sweaty and uncomfortable all the time. I don't intend to follow suit though, whether the government thinks I should wear one or not.
They're theoretically supposed to be worn on public transport, but plenty of passengers are simply openly ignoring this edict. What is the bus driver going to do, get into a big row with every fourth or fifth passenger who isn't wearing one?


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## Julia9054 (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So you're one of the sheep who need to be told what to do by clueless politicians, because you can't make up your own mind?
> If you want to wear a mask, go ahead and wear one. Knock yourself out and enjoy being sweaty and uncomfortable all the time. I don't intend to follow suit though, whether the government thinks I should wear one or not.
> They're theoretically supposed to be worn on public transport, but plenty of passengers are simply openly ignoring this edict. What is the bus driver going to do, get into a big row with every fourth or fifth passenger who isn't wearing one?


Anyone else just reading " me me me me me" ?


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Anyone else just reading " me me me me me" ?



You can read what you like into it, but I've had more than enough of this lockdown nonsense already and I'm not planning to dance to any politicians tunes. You'll find a significant proportion of the whole population are equally pissed off with it and are taking the same attitude, hence groups congregating and not maintaining distance from each other etc. It's over, the window of opportunity to modify public behaviour in order to increase the capacity to cope with the virus is now closed. From now on, it will run it's course and the outcome is the outcome, good or bad.


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## roubaixtuesday (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So you're one of the sheep who need to be told what to do by clueless politicians, because you can't make up your own mind?



Your juvenile ovine insults aside, pandemics demand a societal response. 

What you do does not just affect you, it affects everyone. 

Viruses do not respect libertarian rhetoric, notwithstanding the irony of ovine like libertarians demanding they do.


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## Rocky (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You can read what you like into it, but I've had more than enough of this lockdown nonsense already and I'm not planning to dance to any politicians tunes. You'll find a significant proportion of the whole population are equally pissed off with it and are taking the same attitude, hence groups congregating and not maintaining distance from each other etc. It's over, the window of opportunity to modify public behaviour in order to increase the capacity to cope with the virus is now closed. From now on, it will run it's course and the outcome is the outcome, good or bad.


You know nothing about the population, so don't try and speak for them. Your dismissal of mask wearing goes against the evidence and is simply selfish. No wonder Covid is spreading with an approach like that. I have said this before, but I'll say it again - my younger son is a junior doctor on a Covid ward. He has spent the last three months holding the hands of people who are literally drowning from interstitial pneumonia. He has set up video links with loved ones so they can say their last goodbyes. This is an awful disease that can kill anyone. Your attitude is a kick in the teeth to anyone who works in our NHS or who has lost a loved one.


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## midlife (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So you're one of the sheep who need to be told what to do by clueless politicians, because you can't make up your own mind?
> If you want to wear a mask, go ahead and wear one. Knock yourself out and enjoy being sweaty and uncomfortable all the time. I don't intend to follow suit though, whether the government thinks I should wear one or not.
> They're theoretically supposed to be worn on public transport, but plenty of passengers are simply openly ignoring this edict. What is the bus driver going to do, get into a big row with every fourth or fifth passenger who isn't wearing one?




I wear a mask 8 hours a day and no more sweaty / uncomfortable than wearing a pair of shoes.


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## raleighnut (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You can read what you like into it, but I've had more than enough of this lockdown nonsense already and I'm not planning to dance to any politicians tunes. You'll find a significant proportion of the whole population are equally pissed off with it and are taking the same attitude, hence groups congregating and not maintaining distance from each other etc. It's over, the window of opportunity to modify public behaviour in order to increase the capacity to cope with the virus is now closed. From now on, it will run it's course and the outcome is the outcome, good or bad.


I fear you're right, there's some numpties round here that don't care too, as for myself I shall do my best not to catch it even if it means 'pulling up the drawbridge' and staying safe. I am responsible for my own health and wellbeing but since the smoking ban I've found pubs to be a waste of money anyway.


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## deptfordmarmoset (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So you're one of the sheep who need to be told what to do by clueless politicians, because you can't make up your own mind?
> If you want to wear a mask, go ahead and wear one. Knock yourself out and enjoy being sweaty and uncomfortable all the time. I don't intend to follow suit though, whether the government thinks I should wear one or not.
> They're theoretically supposed to be worn on public transport, but plenty of passengers are simply openly ignoring this edict. What is the bus driver going to do, get into a big row with every fourth or fifth passenger who isn't wearing one?


I sincerely hope you do not have any surviving parents or none of your friends do.


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## steve292 (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So you're one of the sheep who need to be told what to do by clueless politicians, because you can't make up your own mind?
> If you want to wear a mask, go ahead and wear one. Knock yourself out and enjoy being sweaty and uncomfortable all the time. I don't intend to follow suit though, whether the government thinks I should wear one or not.
> They're theoretically supposed to be worn on public transport, but plenty of passengers are simply openly ignoring this edict. What is the bus driver going to do, get into a big row with every fourth or fifth passenger who isn't wearing one?


This is why we will be in the shoot for longer than we need to be. 
The science is saying wearing a mask will slow/ reduce the spread of the virus. Why is this so hard to understand?
I hope you don't get it, but you will get very short shrift from me if you do. I hope even more you don't spread it to others. Your selfishness sucks.


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## Joey Shabadoo (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So you're one of the sheep who need to be told what to do by clueless politicians, because you can't make up your own mind?
> If you want to wear a mask, go ahead and wear one. Knock yourself out and enjoy being sweaty and uncomfortable all the time. I don't intend to follow suit though, whether the government thinks I should wear one or not.
> They're theoretically supposed to be worn on public transport, but plenty of passengers are simply openly ignoring this edict. What is the bus driver going to do, get into a big row with every fourth or fifth passenger who isn't wearing one?


A while back I posted a link to a young woman telling of what had happened to her. She is immuno-compromised which essentially means she is especially vulnerable to this. She self-isolated, just her and her dog in an apartment. She only left the house once a month to buy food. When she did leave the house she took every precaution she could - she wore a mask, kept her distance, cleaned her hands repeatedly but, living in the US as she does, people laughed at her for wearing a mask. They came up and shouted in her face and made no attempt to keep their distance.

She has just tested positive for Covid.

She did everything she could to keep herself safe, it was other people who infected her.

I'll say it again, wearing a mask isn't about keeping *you* safe, it's about keeping *others* safe. 

Please, wear a mask.


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## Andy in Germany (2 Jul 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> What’s the point now that the supposed rate here is so low? I could have understood doing this 2 months ago.



We had the same process: complete lockdown then as numbers of infections reduced, our state relaxed he rules but made masks mandatory in public places. Now we are getting _towards _normal but infections are staying low.


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## MntnMan62 (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So you're one of the sheep who need to be told what to do by clueless politicians, because you can't make up your own mind?
> If you want to wear a mask, go ahead and wear one. Knock yourself out and enjoy being sweaty and uncomfortable all the time. I don't intend to follow suit though, whether the government thinks I should wear one or not.
> *They're theoretically supposed to be worn on public transport, but plenty of passengers are simply openly ignoring this edict.* What is the bus driver going to do, get into a big row with every fourth or fifth passenger who isn't wearing one?



Interesting that you chastise someone for just going along yet you do the same thing saying that plenty of people don’t wear them so you won’t either? And it’s not just theoretical. There is science behind that requirement. Baaaaaaaaa.


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## Tanis8472 (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So you're one of the sheep who need to be told what to do by clueless politicians, because you can't make up your own mind?
> If you want to wear a mask, go ahead and wear one. Knock yourself out and enjoy being sweaty and uncomfortable all the time. I don't intend to follow suit though, whether the government thinks I should wear one or not.
> They're theoretically supposed to be worn on public transport, but plenty of passengers are simply openly ignoring this edict. What is the bus driver going to do, get into a big row with every fourth or fifth passenger who isn't wearing one?



Why does this not surprise me.


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## Unkraut (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So you're one of the sheep who need to be told what to do by clueless politicians, because you can't make up your own mind?


It is reasonable to reserve judgement over what clueless politicians say, obviously, but not at the same time ignore the warnings of those with years of expertise and research in virology - unless they have become politicised, which seems to me to be rare at the moment.


SkipdiverJohn said:


> ... I've had more than enough of this lockdown nonsense already and I'm not planning to dance to any politicians tunes.


I'm not surprised you have had so much push back on this one. On Another Issue that has been debated and argued over for the last 4 years you were only too willing to be told what to do by clueless politicians and to dance to their tunes. The irony of it is exactly the same rogues gallery of politicians are now the ones you have chosen to ignore. 


SkipdiverJohn said:


> You'll find a significant proportion of the whole population are equally pissed off with it and are taking the same attitude, hence groups congregating and not maintaining distance from each other etc


I doubt if anyone likes the lockdown, and personally I find the requirement to wear a mask irritating. But it is not exactly asking much if it continues to keep the spread of the virus down, thereby saving the lives of those who are particularly vulnerable. It is anti-social (literally!) not to comply with this, and not doing so to take back control (as it were) is detrimental to the common good. At the very least masks remind everyone this wretched thing is still around, unlike some in Britain who get their (fake) news from social media and think the whole thing is now over. 

If there is one thing likely to cause an increase in infections it is large numbers of people gathering together and ignoring distancing rules - pubs in particular. Some of it is happening here, lest you think Germany is the land of sinless perfection. But overall the population is holding to the guidelines and requirements because they have been convinced in their own minds this is a reasonable strategy to combat the spread - and everyone knows what is happening in meat factories where the distancing has been ignored.


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## tom73 (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So you're one of the sheep who need to be told what to do by clueless politicians, because you can't make up your own mind?
> If you want to wear a mask, go ahead and wear one. Knock yourself out and enjoy being sweaty and uncomfortable all the time. I don't intend to follow suit though, whether the government thinks I should wear one or not.
> They're theoretically supposed to be worn on public transport, but plenty of passengers are simply openly ignoring this edict. What is the bus driver going to do, get into a big row with every fourth or fifth passenger who isn't wearing one?



If it was found that each case of covid could be traced back to the individual who passed it on. Then you found out that due to your total lack of care for other around you. Your individual covid stain went on to kill someone. Would you still be so dismissive of this whole thing? Some how I sadly think you would. You really have now idea how deadly this thing is or what it means to to die from this. People who have died from Covid have literally drowned to death knowing they can do nothing about it. it's horrific, It's not quick or painless. Even if you get a mild form you're don't know what effects you will be left with or what effects you may go on to develop. Even if they survive being coming of a ventilator they face months of rehab or worse. We know someone (under 40 fit and well) who is still on a ventilator with Covid after 7 weeks he's now on dialysis and may need that for life. That's if he ever get's off a ventilator. 

I won't even try to say what I think of your clear disrespect of clinical staff as it would get a bit messy and I'm not about to lower myself and get booted off here. They have worked round the clock to care for others and tried to allow the ones who die to so with dignity and not alone. In the most trying of situations they have never seen before. Working to keep others including you safe. All because they care for others no matter what. Two of my wife's former colleagues have died from Covid caring for others including possibly ones who like you don't give a fig. 

Believe what you want , carry on blindly and my doing so put others at risk just do it well away from the rest of us.


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## MrGrumpy (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You can read what you like into it, but I've had more than enough of this lockdown nonsense already and I'm not planning to dance to any politicians tunes. You'll find a significant proportion of the whole population are equally pissed off with it and are taking the same attitude, hence groups congregating and not maintaining distance from each other etc. It's over, the window of opportunity to modify public behaviour in order to increase the capacity to cope with the virus is now closed. From now on, it will run it's course and the outcome is the outcome, good or bad.


ahh well that's good, as you say good or bad eh ! Lets hope its all good for you rather than bad !


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## RoadRider400 (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You can read what you like into it, but I've had more than enough of this lockdown nonsense already and I'm not planning to dance to any politicians tunes. You'll find a significant proportion of the whole population are equally pissed off with it and are taking the same attitude, hence groups congregating and not maintaining distance from each other etc. It's over, the window of opportunity to modify public behaviour in order to increase the capacity to cope with the virus is now closed. From now on, it will run it's course and the outcome is the outcome, good or bad.


I can relate to this to some extent but its such a difficult line to tread. Protect lives vs tank the economy. Risk lives vs rescue the economy. Economy isnt really the right word to use because it implies that its lives vs money when it really isnt. The government is in a situation where its got to weigh up the lives of tens of thousands of people vs the quality of life of millions of people for many years to come. Whatever they do they are screwed.


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## MntnMan62 (2 Jul 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> I can relate to this to some extent but its such a difficult line to tread. Protect lives vs tank the economy. Risk lives vs rescue the economy. Economy isnt really the right word to use because it implies that its lives vs money when it really isnt. The government is in a situation where its got to weigh up the lives of tens of thousands of people vs the quality of life of millions of people for many years to come. Whatever they do they are screwed.



Well, it is money or lives. But setting that aside for the moment, there are smart ways to approach things. And the approaches taken by some politicians have been quite stupid. Others have been very deliberate and smart in how they have interpretted the data and have refused to bow to public pressure. No one seems willing to accept the fact that we have a deadly disease that is killing people. It also happens to be killing the economy. But that's what virulent diseases do. They kill people AND economies. Life is difficult. How many of us have heard our parents say "life is hard." "Nothing in life is easy." I grew up hearing those words and now that I'm a parent myself and on the verge of turning 58, I realize how true those words are. The reality is that things wouldn't be so bad if people were just willing to follow the protocols that WE KNOW WORK. Social distancing and wearing a mask. When people do this, the number of cases and deaths goes down. When we don't do this, the numbers go up. And really, who difficult is it to wear a freaking mask? It's not. And you don't have to wear it all the time. Just when you are around other people and can't social distance. Some people take it to the other extreme. They are driving around in their car with no one else in the car with them and they have the mask on. It's just not necessary. You go shopping? Put on a mask. You go walking where you will come in contact with other people? You can leave it off until you get near someone else and you put it on for a few moments until you are no longer in close proximity to the other people. How hard is that? Yet people are complaining about this stuff. That's not only selfish but it's also lazy and entitled and childish. The reality is if everyone social distanced and wore masks, the numbers would go down and businesses could open up provided social distancing and masks are worn. And businesses could start making some money. Refuse to social distance and wear a mask and businesses can't open and have to remain shut and the economy stays in the dumper. How difficult is THAT for people to get their heads around? It's very simple. And there is no shortage of stupid, selfish, lazy, entitled and childish people.


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## MrGrumpy (2 Jul 2020)

This government screwed up when they didn't take the threat seriously enough, its was heading through Europe in Feb and they did nothing ! Anyway you right the government are on a lose lose , especially when some folk will not do as they are told !


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## RoadRider400 (2 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Well, it is money or lives. But setting that aside for the moment, there are smart ways to approach things. And the approaches taken by some politicians have been quite stupid. Others have been very deliberate and smart in how they have interpretted the data and have refused to bow to public pressure. No one seems willing to accept the fact that we have a deadly disease that is killing people. It also happens to be killing the economy. But that's what virulent diseases do. They kill people AND economies. Life is difficult. How many of us have heard our parents say "life is hard." "Nothing in life is easy." I grew up hearing those words and now that I'm a parent myself and on the verge of turning 58, I realize how true those words are. The reality is that things wouldn't be so bad if people were just willing to follow the protocols that WE KNOW WORK. Social distancing and wearing a mask. When people do this, the number of cases and deaths goes down. When we don't do this, the numbers go up. *And really, who difficult is it to wear a freaking mask? It's not*. And you don't have to wear it all the time. Just when you are around other people and can't social distance. Some people take it to the other extreme. They are driving around in their car with no one else in the car with them and they have the mask on. It's just not necessary. You go shopping? Put on a mask. You go walking where you will come in contact with other people? You can leave it off until you get near someone else and you put it on for a few moments until you are no longer in close proximity to the other people. How hard is that? Yet people are complaining about this stuff. That's not only selfish but it's also lazy and entitled and childish. The reality is if everyone social distanced and wore masks, the numbers would go down and businesses could open up provided social distancing and masks are worn. And businesses could start making some money. Refuse to social distance and wear a mask and businesses can't open and have to remain shut and the economy stays in the dumper. How difficult is THAT for people to get their heads around? It's very simple. And there is no shortage of stupid, selfish, lazy, entitled and childish people.


Extremely if you are one of the unfortunately people who have mild to severe anxiety, claustrophobia, asthma or any other condition that affects your ability to breathe normally. But dont let that keep you from your sweeping generalisations. Many people dont wear masks out of selfishness, lazyness or whatever you term you want to throw at them fine I dont dispute that. But perhaps spare a thought for those who need to get about but genuinely struggle to wear a mask for any length of time.


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## MntnMan62 (2 Jul 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Extremely if you are one of the unfortunately people who have mild to severe anxiety, claustrophobia, asthma or any other condition that affects your ability to breathe normally. But dont let that keep you from your sweeping generalisations. Many people dont wear masks out of selfishness, lazyness or whatever you term you want to throw at them fine I dont dispute that. But perhaps spare a thought for those who need to get about but genuinely struggle to wear a mask for any length of time.



I guess you missed the whole "life is hard" part of my post. I'm not making sweeping generalizations. Lots of us have all sorts of issues that we have to deal with every day of our lives. The virus doesn't care about our issues. It only knows a human host when it sees one and goes for it. It does not discriminate. Just so you know I have pretty severe claustrophopia. I can't go into a submarine. I have trouble sitting in a window seat on a crowded airplane. And if that seat is in the back of the plane, forget about it. I'm a complete basket case. I understand claustrophobia and anxiety quite well. None of what you say changes anything I've said and I vehemently disagree with you that I am making sweeping overgeneralizations.


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## mjr (2 Jul 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> It was yesterday too.


Anything useful on the covid show either day?


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## mjr (2 Jul 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Extremely if you are one of the unfortunately people who have mild to severe anxiety, claustrophobia, asthma or any other condition that affects your ability to breathe normally. But dont let that keep you from your sweeping generalisations. Many people dont wear masks out of selfishness, lazyness or whatever you term you want to throw at them fine I dont dispute that. But perhaps spare a thought for those who need to get about but genuinely struggle to wear a mask for any length of time.


However, someone posting "I don't intend to follow suit though, whether the government thinks I should wear one or not" is probably not someone with a medical exemption, unless being a daffodil is now a disease affecting face covering.


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> No one seems willing to accept the fact that we have a deadly disease that is killing people. It also happens to be killing the economy. But that's what virulent diseases do. They kill people AND economies.....................
> The reality is that things wouldn't be so bad if people were just willing to follow the protocols that WE KNOW WORK. Social distancing and wearing a mask............
> The reality is if everyone social distanced and wore masks, the numbers would go down and businesses could open up provided social distancing and masks are worn. And businesses could start making some money



I doubt you'll find many people who claim the virus is "fake". I'm well aware the virus is very real and is contagious. However, I do not believe that wrecking the economy, throwing millions of people out of work, destroying peoples businesses, and having a huge rise in deaths from other causes instead such as undiagnosed/untreated cancer, heart disease etc, is a price worth paying just to make the headline virus numbers look more palatable. 
The mask wearing thing is just a joke. The only type of masks that could actually meaningfully reduce coronavirus transmission are proper medical/industrial grade ones for hazardous environments, and they are NOT comfortable to wear just for show, because they have to fit tightly and not leak. The sort of face coverings being promoted are nothing more than stage props and are ineffective against minute droplets. Wearing a coarse weave decorators dust mask or a bit of bedsheet tied over your mouth like a bandana is going to achieve nothing. Worse still, when people wear masks they irritate the face, so they fiddle about with them. They touch the mask and adjust it's position, they touch their nose. They rub their eyes. I see all this going on in public every day. All the wearers are doing is touching their faces with hands that might be pre-contaminated from a surface or from the outside of their own mask. They've got more chance of actually infecting themselves with either the coronavirus or any number of other nasties than preventing it!
As far as allowing businesses to make money, you aren't going to do that unless you abolish social distancing and allow normal customer densities in hospitality venues. No pub or restaurant is going to make a profit if only half the normal amount of customers are allowed in and the atmosphere is also spoiled by being told where and how to sit and to wear a mask. That isn't my idea of an enjoyable evening out, and nor I suspect will it appeal to the majority of drinkers and diners. I won't be spending any of my money in such venues until I can sit exactly how and where I want and can socialise normally. If I ran such a business I would stay shut, keep my staff on furlough, and let the government carry on picking up the bill until I could get enough customers in to justify all the staffing costs and electricity bills etc. Most such businesses have a lot of loss-making hours in the week and only make their money during the busy periods when they are full up. If you prevent a business running at full capacity you take away their ability to be profitable.


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## roubaixtuesday (2 Jul 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Protect lives vs tank the economy.



No. That's the very definition of a false dichotomy. 

Those countries who responded fast and maximised restrictions are fastest out and have the least hit to their economies. 

Fundamentally it's not the restrictions which harm the economy. Its fear of the virus.


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## roubaixtuesday (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The only type of masks that could actually meaningfully reduce coronavirus transmission are proper medical/industrial grade ones for hazardous environments, and they are NOT comfortable to wear just for show, because they have to fit tightly and not leak.



Wrong. The best evidence shows that face covering does reduce transmission.


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## Johnno260 (2 Jul 2020)

To be honest all the nonsense I have seen and some I have witnessed has lead me into being happy being apart from society anyway. 

If my employer was to say work from home can be indefinite I would jump at the chance.

Either way things go government is damned, but also many people have been shown to be selfish and obnoxious, and could learn a lot from an insect on being socially and community responsible.


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## Milzy (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I doubt you'll find many people who claim the virus is "fake". I'm well aware the virus is very real and is contagious. However, I do not believe that wrecking the economy, throwing millions of people out of work, destroying peoples businesses, and having a huge rise in deaths from other causes instead such as undiagnosed/untreated cancer, heart disease etc, is a price worth paying just to make the headline virus numbers look more palatable.
> The mask wearing thing is just a joke. The only type of masks that could actually meaningfully reduce coronavirus transmission are proper medical/industrial grade ones for hazardous environments, and they are NOT comfortable to wear just for show, because they have to fit tightly and not leak. The sort of face coverings being promoted are nothing more than stage props and are ineffective against minute droplets. Wearing a coarse weave decorators dust mask or a bit of bedsheet tied over your mouth like a bandana is going to achieve nothing. Worse still, when people wear masks they irritate the face, so they fiddle about with them. They touch the mask and adjust it's position, they touch their nose. They rub their eyes. I see all this going on in public every day. All the wearers are doing is touching their faces with hands that might be pre-contaminated from a surface or from the outside of their own mask. They've got more chance of actually infecting themselves with either the coronavirus or any number of other nasties than preventing it!
> As far as allowing businesses to make money, you aren't going to do that unless you abolish social distancing and allow normal customer densities in hospitality venues. No pub or restaurant is going to make a profit if only half the normal amount of customers are allowed in and the atmosphere is also spoiled by being told where and how to sit and to wear a mask. That isn't my idea of an enjoyable evening out, and nor I suspect will it appeal to the majority of drinkers and diners. I won't be spending any of my money in such venues until I can sit exactly how and where I want and can socialise normally. If I ran such a business I would stay shut, keep my staff on furlough, and let the government carry on picking up the bill until I could get enough customers in to justify all the staffing costs and electricity bills etc. Most such businesses have a lot of loss-making hours in the week and only make their money during the busy periods when they are full up. If you prevent a business running at full capacity you take away their ability to be profitable.


This is the most sensible post I've read on C C for a long time. The government are only making things worse and more drawn out. Set sail for FAIL. Someone on Facebook is saying it's a hoax I hope he gets it.


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> However, someone posting "I don't intend to follow suit though, whether the government thinks I should wear one or not" is probably not someone with a medical exemption, unless being a daffodil is now a disease affecting face covering.



So if you believe that mask wearing is effective, do you therefore think it's acceptable for certain groups of people with medical exemptions to have special dispensation to spread the virus, but not the rest of us? Or are those with medical exemptions some special pure group who can't possibly be virus carriers? If wearing a mask made that much difference, then no-one should be exempt from it. Everyone or no-one, no special treatment.


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## mjr (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The sort of face coverings being promoted are nothing more than stage props and are ineffective against minute droplets. Wearing a coarse weave decorators dust mask or a bit of bedsheet tied over your mouth like a bandana is going to achieve nothing.


Whereas in reality, even shoot masks halve the number of virus particles reaching a metre, if I recall correctly, with some well made fabric masks reducing it by over 80%.

Yes, it needs good mask handling and it's a scandal that gov.uk haven't put out public information films about it, such as seen in other countries. They spend millions on apocalyptic scaremongering stay-at-home adverts but naff all on masks. Another Boris fail.



> I won't be spending any of my money in such venues until I can sit exactly how and where I want and can socialise normally.


Well, I'm more likely to visit pubs if they will actually serve me outside, more German-style, on decent furniture, under decent umbrellas that keep typical rain off, instead of having a choice of carrying my own beer over a sequence of trip hazards to rickety rough picnic tables outside or cramped inside situations with sometimes idiot drunks trying to sit on our table. I really hope we get this right and more pubs become better places to be!


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## midlife (2 Jul 2020)

Went to our hospital Covid lecture today, head of ITU. 

Most of it was about Cpap, pronation, ventilation, remdesivir etc we all know that the death rate in ICU is 50% once ventilated.... 

but the thing that made me stop and think was the negative health impact on the survivors, both from ITU and the wards....Lungs, kidneys, loss of limbs from vascular damage and the rest. 

Not a nice infection to have and end up in hospital, even if you make it the effects can be life changing.


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## mjr (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So if you believe that mask wearing is effective, do you therefore think it's acceptable for certain groups of people with medical exemptions to have special dispensation to spread the virus, but not the rest of us? Or are those with medical exemptions some special pure group who can't possibly be virus carriers? If wearing a mask made that much difference, then no-one should be exempt from it. Everyone or no-one, no special treatment.


Another false dichotomy. It's a balancing act. Do it if it causes you no ill effects - that's just being kind to those around you. Don't do it if it's probably gonna cause medical problems and put more strain on health services.


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 Jul 2020)

Milzy said:


> This is the most sensible post I've read on C C for a long time. The government are only making things worse and more drawn out. Set sail for FAIL. Someone on Facebook is saying it's a hoax I hope he gets it.



You cant agree with me, you'll have the PC attitude police after you! 
I don't see the point in overwhelming the NHS with coronavirus this winter on top of all the normal seasonal illness either - but that is exactly what will happen if the virus isn't allowed to peak naturally as soon as possible and burn itself out in time to clear the decks for the winter flu and icy fall broken bones. The virus is certainly not fake, it's very real and the less of it still around in six months the better. The 1918 Spanish flu virus remained in circulation for YEARS after the main pandemic subsided.


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## AuroraSaab (2 Jul 2020)

The evidence now seems clear that masks, even simple fabric ones, reduce transmission. 

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/4...s-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

Ideally, noone should be exempt but the vast majority of us wearing masks with a few limited exemptions would still be hugely helpful in terms of asymptomatic carriers spreading covid, which seems to be the newest area of concern.


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## Rezillo (2 Jul 2020)

Mask effectiveness - there's a good summary here, with links to studies:

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/4...s-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

One quote:

The bottom line is that any mask that covers the nose and mouth will be of benefit.

“The concept is risk reduction rather than absolute prevention,” said Chin-Hong. “You don’t throw up your hands if you think a mask is not 100 percent effective. That’s silly. Nobody’s taking a cholesterol medicine because they’re going to prevent a heart attack 100 percent of the time, but you’re reducing your risk substantially.”

*If we’re practicing social distancing, do we still need to wear masks?*

A mnemonic that Chin-Hong likes is the “Three W’s to ward off COVID-19:” wearing a mask, washing your hands, and watching your distance.

“But of the three, the most important thing is wearing a mask,” he said. Compared to wearing a mask, cleaning your iPhone or wiping down your groceries are “just distractors.” There’s little evidence that fomites (contaminated surfaces) are a major source of transmission, whereas there is a lot of evidence of transmission through inhaled droplets, said Chin-Hong.

“You should always wear masks and socially distance,” said Rutherford. “I would be hesitant to try to parse it apart. But, yes, I think mask wearing is more important".


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## marinyork (2 Jul 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53257101

After Italy, the UK takes sewage epidemiology seriously!


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## mjr (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You cant agree with me, you'll have the PC attitude police after you!
> I don't seethe point in overwhelming the NHS with coronavirus this winter on top of all the normal seasonal illness either - but that is exactly what will happen if the virus isn't allowed to peak naturally as soon as possible and burn itself out in time to clear the decks for the winter flu and icy fall broken bones. The virus is certainly not fake, it's very real and the less of it still around in six months the better. The 1918 Spanish flu virus remained in circulation for YEARS after the main pandemic subsided.


1. We still don't know if this virus can "burn itself out" rather than keep recirculating, maybe with slight mutations.
2. Back of an envelope sums make me think we cannot now infect most of the population before autumn without overwhelming the NHS. How do you think we can?
3. As time goes on, more treatments and maybe preventives will be discovered or developed. Surely a sane country aims to be last off the cliff, rather than bonkers Boris vowing to lead the rebound back in Feb?


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## mjr (2 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53257101
> 
> After Italy, the UK takes sewage epidemiology seriously!


Well, that's shoot!


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## marinyork (2 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Well, that's shoot!



If there's anything in it we can look forward to the photo opportunities for Matt Hancock suited and helmeted up coming out of a sewer.


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## deptfordmarmoset (2 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> If there's anything in it we can look forward to the photo opportunities for Matt Hancock suited and helmeted up coming out of a sewer.


I'd watch that backwards. It's where he should be.


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> 1. We still don't know if this virus can "burn itself out" rather than keep recirculating, maybe with slight mutations.
> 2. Back of an envelope sums make me think we cannot now infect most of the population before autumn without overwhelming the NHS. How do you think we can?
> 3. As time goes on, more treatments and maybe preventives will be discovered or developed. Surely a sane country aims to be last off the cliff, rather than bonkers Boris vowing to lead the rebound back in Feb?



1) Previous disease outbreaks have ended up fizzling out with far less cases than could theoretically have occurred. Quite possibly, a substantial part of any population has a high resistance to becoming ill. For example it is very rare for me to catch anything that makes me feel ill. I last got the (real) flu over 20 years ago that put me on my back, and I was pretty rough in early March this year, I suspect with the virus, as a colleague returned from Thailand and was really rough for a week with virus symptoms immediately afterwards.
2) If the NHS gets overwhelmed later on now, it will be because the lockdown went on too long. It was only ever rational to do it for a couple of weeks to allow the overspill field hospitals to be put in place. Then it should have been scrapped totally and the virus allowed to run. You need the highest possible infection rate short of totally overwhelming the intensive care capacity.
3) Waiting for vaccines and other treatments is a massive gamble, and time is not on our side. We really can't afford to have loads of coronavirus still around in winter or even more lockdown economic carnage. This pandemic needs to be brought to a swift end as quickly possible, not kicking the death toll can down the road and hoping that something may turn up next year, which is a normal vaccine timeframe.


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## MntnMan62 (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I doubt you'll find many people who claim the virus is "fake". I'm well aware the virus is very real and is contagious. However, I do not believe that wrecking the economy, throwing millions of people out of work, destroying peoples businesses, and having a huge rise in deaths from other causes instead such as undiagnosed/untreated cancer, heart disease etc, is a price worth paying just to make the headline virus numbers look more palatable.
> The mask wearing thing is just a joke. The only type of masks that could actually meaningfully reduce coronavirus transmission are proper medical/industrial grade ones for hazardous environments, and they are NOT comfortable to wear just for show, because they have to fit tightly and not leak. The sort of face coverings being promoted are nothing more than stage props and are ineffective against minute droplets. Wearing a coarse weave decorators dust mask or a bit of bedsheet tied over your mouth like a bandana is going to achieve nothing. Worse still, when people wear masks they irritate the face, so they fiddle about with them. They touch the mask and adjust it's position, they touch their nose. They rub their eyes. I see all this going on in public every day. All the wearers are doing is touching their faces with hands that might be pre-contaminated from a surface or from the outside of their own mask. They've got more chance of actually infecting themselves with either the coronavirus or any number of other nasties than preventing it!
> As far as allowing businesses to make money, you aren't going to do that unless you abolish social distancing and allow normal customer densities in hospitality venues. No pub or restaurant is going to make a profit if only half the normal amount of customers are allowed in and the atmosphere is also spoiled by being told where and how to sit and to wear a mask. That isn't my idea of an enjoyable evening out, and nor I suspect will it appeal to the majority of drinkers and diners. I won't be spending any of my money in such venues until I can sit exactly how and where I want and can socialise normally. If I ran such a business I would stay shut, keep my staff on furlough, and let the government carry on picking up the bill until I could get enough customers in to justify all the staffing costs and electricity bills etc. Most such businesses have a lot of loss-making hours in the week and only make their money during the busy periods when they are full up. If you prevent a business running at full capacity you take away their ability to be profitable.



Interesting that you just responded to a redacted version of my post. Strike one. You say mask wearing is a joke. You attempt to state which masks provide a meaningful reduction in coronavirus transmission. Have you done studies to back up your fictitious comments? I think not. Are you in the field of immunology? I don't think so. Are you even in a field remotely related to the medical profession? All you can do is state which masks are ineffective. Yet you give no credit to the ones that are effective. To that point, the vast majority of people are wearing masks that stop the passag of droplets that carry the virus. If that was not true then we would not have seen such a large drop in the number of cases while social distancing and mask wearing protocols were still in place. So, you've ignored the facts and the statistics. Your comment saying businesses can't make money unless you abolish social distancing and normal customer interaction, which means without masks to you, that says you deny there is even an issue. Stike 2 and 3. You're out.


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## MntnMan62 (2 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> 1) *Previous disease outbreaks have ended up fizzling out with far less cases than could theoretically have occurred. *Quite possibly, a substantial part of any population has a high resistance to becoming ill. For example it is very rare for me to catch anything that makes me feel ill. I last got the (real) flu over 20 years ago that put me on my back, and I was pretty rough in early March this year, I suspect with the virus, as a colleague returned from Thailand and was really rough for a week with virus symptoms immediately afterwards.
> 2) *If the NHS gets overwhelmed later on now, it will be because the lockdown went on too long.* It was only ever rational to do it for a couple of weeks to allow the overspill field hospitals to be put in place. Then it should have been scrapped totally and the virus allowed to run. You need the highest possible infection rate short of totally overwhelming the intensive care capacity.
> 3) Waiting for vaccines and other treatments is a massive gamble, and time is not on our side. *We really can't afford to have loads of coronavirus still around in winter or even more lockdown economic carnage. This pandemic needs to be brought to a swift end as quickly possible, *not kicking the death toll can down the road and hoping that something may turn up next year, which is a normal vaccine timeframe.



1) Really? What's your source for such a statement? It's rare for you to get sick? What will you say if tomorrow you come down with it, end up on a ventilator, survive but have permanent lung, kidney and heart damage? Will you stand by your existing position? I'm sure you will. Hah.
2) What a ridiculous thing to say. If the NHS gets overwhelmed it will be simply because the volume of patients has gone through the roof. That's already happened in many parts of the US. Hospitals are at maximum capacity in areas that opened. 
3) So, what is your answer to bring this pandemic under control and a "swift" end? Enlighten us.


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## mjr (3 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> 1) Previous disease outbreaks have ended up fizzling out with far less cases than could theoretically have occurred. Quite possibly, a substantial part of any population has a high resistance to becoming ill. For example it is very rare for me to catch anything that makes me feel ill. I last got the (real) flu over 20 years ago that put me on my back, and I was pretty rough in early March this year, I suspect with the virus, as a colleague returned from Thailand and was really rough for a week with virus symptoms immediately afterwards.


Past performance is not a guarantee of future events.

I hope that they hurry up with antibody testing and it debunks most of these "ya I had covid before it was fashionable" cases as manflu.



> 2) If the NHS gets overwhelmed later on now, it will be because the lockdown went on too long. It was only ever rational to do it for a couple of weeks to allow the overspill field hospitals to be put in place. Then it should have been scrapped totally and the virus allowed to run. You need the highest possible infection rate short of totally overwhelming the intensive care capacity.


23 March: lockdown starts;
24 March: temporary hospitals announced;
3 April: first temporary hospital opens;
5 May: temporary hospitals placed on standby;
13 May: unlocking starts;
25 May: remaining locks collapse.

So basically you agree that lockdown was the right length or maybe one week too much or what?



> 3) Waiting for vaccines and other treatments is a massive gamble, and time is not on our side. We really can't afford to have loads of coronavirus still around in winter or even more lockdown economic carnage. This pandemic needs to be brought to a swift end as quickly possible, not kicking the death toll can down the road and hoping that something may turn up next year, which is a normal vaccine timeframe.


Yes, it's a gamble, but less so than crossing our fingers and holding plague parties sacrificing hundreds of thousands in the hope there's immunity. It's not simply kicking the death toll down the road. It's cutting its size, too.

The way to end the pandemic is to starve it out, not feed it.


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## roubaixtuesday (3 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Everyone or no-one, no special treatment.



Masks, like everything else, are not an absolute guarantee, all or nothing cure to transmission. 

They probably reduce the risk, perhaps by quite a lot. 

Accordingly, compulsion should to be judged against potential downsides. In the same way that 2m distance is ideal, but not absolute. 

Your continued attempts to put up ridiculous straw men is noted. It does you no favours.


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## Rocky (3 Jul 2020)

I just want to remind people - my mask protects you, yours protects me. The virus is exhaled in droplets which are large enough to be caught by most face coverings. That is sufficient to slow the transmission in public.

On the economics of Covid, you can’t simply ignore it and carry on as normal. People get sick, they can’t do their jobs, hospitals get overwhelmed, many people die, borders get closed. The economy would grind to a halt under those conditions. All of this is mighty inconvenient for those who think we should ignore it......we can’t, it’s there. Look at the tragedy that’s unfolding in Florida at the moment.


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## srw (3 Jul 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Protect lives vs tank the economy. Risk lives vs rescue the economy.



As @Brompton Bruce has just reminded us, that's a false dichotomy. The economy _is _people_. _The best way to protect it is to keep people healthy. Which means snuffing out the pandemic like New Zealand or Germany, not letting it run.



Milzy said:


> The government are only making things worse and more drawn out.



Yes. But that's because they're rushing into opening up. 

Compare and contrast two US states. One has taken the virus seriously and kept restrictions in place for longer. The other hasn't.


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## roubaixtuesday (3 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> Compare and contrast two US states. One has taken the virus seriously and kept restrictions in place for longer. The other hasn't.



Yup. Guess who's going to take the biggest hit to their economy and face restrictions for longest. 

Germany or Sweden (UK added for perspective):


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## Johnno260 (3 Jul 2020)

if people think masks are pointless, then don't get mad next time someone coughs and doesn't cover their mouth, same with sneezing.


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## marinyork (3 Jul 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> if people think masks are pointless, then don't get mad next time someone coughs and doesn't cover their mouth, same with sneezing.



SAGE thinks a cough spreads the virus 20 to 50 times more than talking and a sneeze around 1500 times.


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## Johnno260 (3 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> SAGE thinks a cough spreads the virus 20 to 50 times more than talking and a sneeze around 1500 times.



Yes the point I was making was I'm sure people who think masks are pointless, don't like people with common colds and coughs not covering their mouth when the cough/sneeze.

A mask is about protecting others, in short it's being socially responsible is it perfect? no but it helps, like I said before many people could learn a lot from an ant..

Also if people moan about wearing one for a short trip to a store, or some other place sorry no sympathy as NHS workers manage it for 13hr shifts.


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## tom73 (3 Jul 2020)

If only i'd have known that public health was so simple and all you do is simply out run infectious disease.The hours of study time that would have saved me.Let's keep it simple as some really don't wish to understand this. Public health is complex and you can't out run it. You find out what's wrong , who it effects, put measures in place to control it , treat it and find way's to eliminate it. 
So let's take Covid we know what's wrong, who it effects though work is on going , we know what measures to use but again that still needs work. Treatment now that's a real problem we don't have a many options. As for eliminating it the only option we can use at the moment is to virtually do it by keeping numbers low. The Uk is still working it's way though the control bit. Other counties like New Zealand are well into the last bit. Which beings us back to the start and with it learning, reviewing , refining all the time moving to effectively eliminating it. 
Or we can just leave it and walk around with fingers in our ears and say it will be all over my Christmas. 
Just think the the money we can save the next time someone runs a mock with a knife or a gun. Just leave them to it once they've killed everyone in sight problem solved.


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## marinyork (3 Jul 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Yes the point I was making was I'm sure people who think masks are pointless, don't like people with common colds and coughs not covering their mouth when the cough/sneeze.
> 
> A mask is about protecting others, in short it's being socially responsible is it perfect? no but it helps, like I said before many people could learn a lot from an ant..
> 
> Also if people moan about wearing one for a short trip to a store, or some other place sorry no sympathy as NHS workers manage it for 13hr shifts.



It's not been talked about much recently, but in the winter, the fewer other diseases people are carrying around flu and cold the better for stronger immune systems the virus may have less of a chance of penetrating. Or just flu circulating at the same time putting a double strain on workplaces and the NHS. 

I do think some of the mask commentary is getting a bit silly on here. Masks are not pleasant to wear particularly, not horrifically so but can be worn in shops or public transport for 30 mins/1 hour etc. When I go around the shops virtually no one else is though. It's then dealing with the higher risk situations and many of the rest of us are furloughed or working at home so indoors at home or outside where the risk to others is very low. So it's some minutes per day/week which is not much.


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## Tanis8472 (3 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Anything useful on the covid show either day?


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## marinyork (3 Jul 2020)

Boris hints everything else may be able to open

He added that gyms would be able to reopen in a “couple of weeks”, and vowed to try to get theatres going “as fast as we possibly can”.
The Prime Minister told the radio station: “The best way forward for the country is to get the economy moving again ... We want to get every part of our industry, including theatres, that are so vital.”
On gyms, he added: “We are going to reopen gyms as soon as we can do it in a Covid-secure way and I think that the date for reopening gyms at the moment, if we can do it, is in just a couple of weeks’ time.”


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## newfhouse (3 Jul 2020)

If they let everyone do as they please, the’re not responsible, are they? This came up weeks ago, and it seems even more prophetic now.


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## roubaixtuesday (3 Jul 2020)

The govt is not learning 4/n

So after ignoring the scenes at Anfield, Bournemouth and the like, the govt presses ahead with _opening pubs on a Saturday night. _

Yet again, the rest of the country have to lead our supposed leaders, this time by delaying their own businesses reopening to limit risk. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...0832109a7183c8#block-5eff087b8f0832109a7183c8

Will they ever learn?


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## tom73 (3 Jul 2020)

First Reports on the ongoing training medical detection dogs look to be going well. Still work to be done but if it works it's a quick and simple screening tool.


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## DCLane (3 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So after ignoring the scenes at Anfield, Bournemouth and the like, the govt presses ahead with _opening pubs on a Saturday night. _



I'd have thought allowing opening from Monday 6th would give them time to get used to systems before a 'rush' at the weekend?

But maybe I'm just naiive?


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## marinyork (3 Jul 2020)

From the guardian

New stats just out from the Office for National Statistics:

*Main points*


Across the care homes included in the study, we estimate that 56% (95% Confidence Interval: 55% - 56%) reported at least one confirmed case of COVID-19 (staff or residents).
Across the care homes that reported at least one confirmed case of coronavirus, we estimate that 20% of residents tested positive for COVID-19 (95% Confidence Interval: 19% - 21%), as reported by care home managers, since the start of the pandemic.
Across the care homes that reported at least one confirmed case of COVID-19, we estimate that 7% of staff tested positive for COVID-19 (95% Confidence Interval: 6% - 8%), as reported by care home managers, since the start of the pandemic.
These emerging findings reveal some common factors in care homes with higher levels of infections amongst residents. These include prevalence of infection in staff, some care home practices such as more frequent use of bank or agency nurses or carers, and some regional differences (such as higher infection levels within care homes in London and the West Midlands). There is some evidence that in care homes where staff receive sick pay, there are lower levels of infection in residents.
Findings also include some common factors in care homes with higher levels of infection amongst staff. These include prevalence of infection in residents (although this is weaker than the effect of staff infection on residents), some care home practices (such as more frequent use of bank or agency nurses or carers, and care homes employing staff who work across multiple sites) and some regional differences (such as higher infection levels within care homes in the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber). However regional differences may be affected by different patterns of testing in staff and residents over time.
Iain Bell, deputy national statistician said: “These are the first results from the Vivaldi study, a large-scale survey which looked specifically at infections in care homes which provide care for people with dementia and older people across England. From this we’ve estimated that over half of these care homes have had at least one confirmed case of COVID-19 amongst their staff and residents.

“Future work will include more detailed analysis and will incorporate COVID-19 test results from the whole care home testing programme.”


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## roubaixtuesday (3 Jul 2020)

DCLane said:


> But maybe I'm just naiive?



Maybe. Or just maybe you have more Great British Common Sense (TM) than the incompetent narcissists and ideologues the Great British Public handed over the keys for the asylum to.


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## tom73 (3 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> From the guardian
> 
> New stats just out from the Office for National Statistics:
> 
> ...



Confirms what anyone who knows anything about them all ready thought. The higher numbers in the north east and Yorkshire are not a surprise given the alder high amount of health inequalities and historic industrial disease. Sadly of course behind all the sats as they also found is that between March and June 20.000 care home died.


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## marinyork (3 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Maybe. Or just maybe you have more Great British Common Sense (TM) than the incompetent narcissists and ideologues the Great British Public handed over the keys for the asylum to.



There's a lot of coverage on here about the pubs, but I haven't heard of a single person that wants to go to the pub on Saturday. I know one that wants to go on Monday.

It is a stupid idea opening on a Saturday, but the public and pubs themselves see that.


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## Mugshot (3 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> There's a lot of coverage on here about the pubs, but I haven't heard of a single person that wants to go to the pub on Saturday. I know one that wants to go on Monday.
> 
> It is a stupid idea opening on a Saturday, but the public and pubs themselves see that.


I'm really not confident that Sunday morning will not be dominated by photos of the previous nights carnage in city centres.


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## Joey Shabadoo (3 Jul 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/WendyGi81590042/status/1278988426830843906


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## marinyork (3 Jul 2020)

Mugshot said:


> I'm really not confident that Sunday morning will not be dominated by photos of the previous nights carnage in city centres.



All it takes is one pub for a front page.

I think it'll be calm compared to the week before pubs were shut down before.


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## roubaixtuesday (3 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> It is a stupid idea opening on a Saturday, but the public and pubs themselves see that.



Absolutely, yet again the govt are following rather than leading the populace. Masks next.


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## Mugshot (3 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> All it takes is one pub for a front page.
> 
> I think it'll be calm compared to the week before pubs were shut down before.


Well, I hope you're right.

There'll be plenty of time, apparently they can open from 6am.


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## Johnno260 (3 Jul 2020)

I pity the staff working Saturday night and Sunday morning in A&E.


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## Adam4868 (3 Jul 2020)

I think bad weather might help.Not so sure what the 6am opening is all about,usually ends up messy that early drinking here.I fully expect football/no surrender songs and some serious statue defending by midday...not that there's any to defend ! 
No thanks 🙄


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## tom73 (3 Jul 2020)

Just been into town some clearly expect this weekend to go well given the about of beer being delivered all other the place. 
It's well past just restocking after lockdown. The local spoons has really pack in the tables out the back. Wondered why they had removed the normal breakfast bar style well space seating. If that's how they've are managing the outside i'd not fancy being inside. 
Many places and local police have asked people to not go mad this weekend. In the mean time the council have spent the last dew days putting up bunting all over the place. All with a back drop of local cases still way too high talk about mixed messages


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## deptfordmarmoset (3 Jul 2020)

I'm a confirmed beer drinker and even have shares in a couple of craft breweries but I fear that cabin fever combined with covid is not a good mix. The local beer shop isn't opening because they're sensible - they're giving it a few days to see how things settle down. I tend to go out on my own, which I think rules me out of the places that take bookings per table (though I'll investigate this). At least a few more weeks of drinking indoors for me.


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## tom73 (3 Jul 2020)

Leicester lockdown area extended and splits service station in two. Rule is don't walk over the link bridge but welcome break say it's open and your free to use it. That clears that up then. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-...ff17011aef1f0655fca6cc&pinned_post_type=share


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## Poacher (3 Jul 2020)

When questioned this morning on R4, the transport secretary Grant (would you buy a new used car from this man?) Shapps seemed quite adamant that Greece would NOT be on the list of countries granted(!) exemption from the quarantine requirements. Now the list has been published this afternoon, Greece is mysteriously included on the favoured list. How strange. 

Edited: "used", not "new", dur!


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## Johnno260 (3 Jul 2020)

Sorry but some bars can open from 6am? lol yea I can see people acting responsibly.......


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## Flick of the Elbow (3 Jul 2020)

Very worried about what’s going to happen this weekend. This could set us back by months.


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## tom73 (3 Jul 2020)

Boris on the briefing has just done the all government is doing this , that and the other it's all ok just don't over do it this weekend. 
He than ask Whitty and co if they had anything to add... greeted with total silence. Some time's it's not what you say but what you do. 
They just said all you need to know.


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## mjr (3 Jul 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Sorry but some bars can open from 6am? lol yea I can see people acting responsibly.......


I'm considering running a sweepstake for the time the first person falls off the quay in town (1 foot edge, no fence), or first coastguard shout on the coast.


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## Tanis8472 (3 Jul 2020)

I know of at least 2 pubs planning on opening tonight


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## Johnno260 (3 Jul 2020)

Thing is I understand the need for social contact, but my issue is use the beaches as an example, total carnage, you can’t ask people to use common sense as it’s not very common at the moment.

Many are acting with total disregard for others, I’m ashamed of some people’s behaviour.

last thing tired health workers need is the usual nonsense of picking up drunks all weekend.

It will be like the last night of drinking before everything closed, but worse, and it’s the tax payer who is paying for many of these drinks, and the tab to pick the people off the street afterwards.


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## marinyork (3 Jul 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Sorry but some bars can open from 6am? lol yea I can see people acting responsibly.......



Also not another good example of government paying attention to details, however staggering is not necessarily all bad.


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## raleighnut (3 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Also not another good example of government paying attention to details, however staggering is not necessarily all bad.


Yep if someone feels the need to rush off to the Pub at breakfast time then ........................................................


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## marinyork (3 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Yep if someone feels the need to rush off to the Pub at breakfast time then ........................................................



One thing that may mean pubs aren't as busy as they might be is I think people genuinely have no idea what is opening and what isn't and may not want to travel that far.


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## classic33 (3 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Maybe. Or just maybe you have more *Great British Common Sense (TM) *than the incompetent narcissists and ideologues the Great British Public handed over the keys for the asylum to.


Hasn't Boris got that covered/claimed that one already?


View: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-52620312/coronavirus-johnson-on-good-solid-british-common-sense


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## midlife (3 Jul 2020)

Heard this on the hospital grapevine today (bit slow). Hospital based dentist leaves ITU after 86 days including weeks having his blood oxygenated by a machine (ECMO).

Blimey!

https://www.eveningtelegraph.co.uk/...tayside-leaves-icu-after-nearly-three-months/


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## tom73 (3 Jul 2020)

Sadly for him that’s just the start one long road of rehab awaits.


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## midlife (3 Jul 2020)

Yep. That's the real sting in the tail with COVID-19. Medics likening it to Guillain-Barre syndrome. It's just such a nasty disease.....


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## tom73 (3 Jul 2020)

If your not sure what‘s been talked about here this piece from the bbc. Give‘s you an idea what effects being on Ventilator has. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/53193835


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## marinyork (3 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Heard this on the hospital grapevine today (bit slow). Hospital based dentist leaves ITU after 86 days including weeks having his blood oxygenated by a machine (ECMO).
> 
> Blimey!
> 
> https://www.eveningtelegraph.co.uk/...tayside-leaves-icu-after-nearly-three-months/



An early and very unlucky case. Horrific.


----------



## marinyork (3 Jul 2020)

A local storm in a beer mug

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-53279723


----------



## midlife (3 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> An early and very unlucky case. Horrific.



Strange that dentists at the sharp end have not come down with COVID in droves, maybe because we wear PPE most of the time. 

Trying to think back to the lecture from the head of ICU here, 20-43 deaths in ICU (cant recall which number) out of 500 in the region means that most people passed away on Covid wards, at home, care homes and not in intensive care.


----------



## Slick (3 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> A local storm in a beer mug
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-53279723


Hopefully they are wrong but I reckon the tweet was fair enough but I suppose we will know for sure by this time tomorrow.


----------



## marinyork (4 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> Hopefully they are wrong but I reckon the tweet was fair enough but I suppose we will know for sure by this time tomorrow.



We'll find out in about two week's time.

One of the problems of Boris going on about pubs, schools and holidays is it means people worry more.


----------



## Slick (4 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> We'll find out in about two week's time.
> 
> One of the problems of Boris going on about pubs, schools and holidays is it means people worry more.


People definitely worry more and I'm one if them. I'd love to think it will be different up here when it's our turn but obviously it won't.


----------



## marinyork (4 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> People definitely worry more and I'm one if them. I'd love to think it will be different up here when it's our turn but obviously it won't.



Some landlords have worked very hard on the safety. Tomorrow may be a novelty, but I think a lot of pubgoers won't enjoy the new experience, lack of pubs open and the weather and will stay away.

I worry far more about the virus than most others I have met. I'm not going anywhere near a pub, but I don't think it'll be that bad tomorrow.

I'm much more worried about 1 metre+. Some other indoor environments are a worry too.


----------



## MntnMan62 (4 Jul 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Very worried about what’s going to happen this weekend. This could set us back by months.



Just look at the US. Don't make the same mistake the US made. Don't open. The US is now just a bastion for disease.


----------



## raleighnut (4 Jul 2020)

Pubs are not an 'industry' they don't make anything other than piss and wind.


----------



## randynewmanscat (4 Jul 2020)

I watched C4 evening news on Friday night and the opening scene was of Krishnan Guru-Murthy at a seaside town to remain nameless here. The production crew framed his head and shoulders perfectly, on his left shoulder a fair crowd of people propping up a wall drinking pints, on his left the same outside the pub selling "takeaways".
So the takeaways got drank outside the pub just as though the place was serving pints on a normal summers evening. Not to be taken in by the misleading long lens view we got to see footage on the spot just outside the pub, I saw no distance, it looked like a regular packed evening outside a pub. I think many people are no longer taking the corona seriously, perhaps they will when the country shuts down completely again.


----------



## Mugshot (4 Jul 2020)

Cold War Steve


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (4 Jul 2020)

'We cannot in good conscience open the pub'



> None of the other eight bars Mr Whelan runs around London will be opening either.
> "Some of my staff have had this virus and when you've seen them at death's door you take a different point of view," Mr Whelan says. "It's a very sobering position to be in."
> Once the virus is circulating at lower levels in the population and there's a "proper track and trace scheme" up and running then he would consider reopening, he says. In the meantime he couldn't look his staff in the eye and ask them to come back with confidence.
> "Nobody likes losing money but you have to have a conscience too."


Good for him.


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## tom73 (4 Jul 2020)

For weeks people going for a test not asked for address leading to poor and incomplete data. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53279823


----------



## Mugshot (4 Jul 2020)

This is a graph that has been shared by Robert Peston, it is apparently from the Texas Medical Association


----------



## GetAGrip (4 Jul 2020)

I understood social distancing was still 2mtrs, unless unable to, It then became 1mtr+. Both BBC & ITV are only stating 1mtr+. I've tried looking for what the government guideline actually says in black & white but can only find the social guidance terminology and not the actual distance. Can anyone help me find it?


----------



## randynewmanscat (4 Jul 2020)

I hope the hospitals have put up the bunting and balloons to welcome back the weekend night A&E frequent flyers. Its been a long time since the pub going Englishman (and woman) have exercised their god given right to threaten and abuse medical staff after a skinful and recreational drug chasers. Let the drug induced hostilities commence!
Have you pre booked your ambulance taxi ride home?


----------



## randynewmanscat (4 Jul 2020)

Pepys knew the score a long time ago.


----------



## marinyork (4 Jul 2020)

Well by accident I found out this morning that one of my favourite pubs is closed for good and an unofficial list of pubs opening today is very small indeed.

I found the guidance for transport has changed yet again today.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (4 Jul 2020)

Mugshot said:


> This is a graph that has been shared by Robert Peston, it is apparently from the Texas Medical Association
> 
> View attachment 534062


Not sure that sitting in a doctor's waiting room is so low risk. Indoors alongside a lot of sick people for what can be quite some time?


----------



## tom73 (4 Jul 2020)

Japan's low death rate look's to be a bit of mystery but they show what works and how it's boots on the ground that you need. Even if the testing rate looks too low.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847


----------



## Slick (4 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Not sure that sitting in a doctor's waiting room is so low risk. Indoors alongside a lot of sick people for what can be quite some time?


Same risk as a game of golf apparently.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Jul 2020)

Mugshot said:


> This is a graph that has been shared by Robert Peston, it is apparently from the Texas Medical Association
> 
> View attachment 534062



It does, of course, beg the question as to why pubs are open but schools shut.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (4 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It does, of course, beg the question as to why pubs are open but schools shut.


How many schools donate to the Tory Party?


----------



## marinyork (4 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It does, of course, beg the question as to why pubs are open but schools shut.



Because the UK government made a complete pigs ear of the public health message and the schools thing gained a momentum of its own with front pages and one on one interviews with very worried teachers and parents.


----------



## Mugshot (4 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Not sure that sitting in a doctor's waiting room is so low risk. Indoors alongside a lot of sick people for what can be quite some time?


Dunno, you'll have to ask a Texan, any one should do. In the meantime, here's another;

_That's why Professor Saskia Popescu, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Arizona, Dr. James P. Phillips, MD, the Chief of Disaster Medicine at GWU Emergency Medicine, and I developed a COVID-19 Risk Index to help you do this, based on four key factors: _

_




_


----------



## tom73 (4 Jul 2020)

You don't need all this US rubbish you just need to "stay alert" and look out for the covid monster. I've been looking and still not seen one thought I had the other day but it turned out I was looking at box of sugar puffs.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (4 Jul 2020)




----------



## Julia9054 (4 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Not sure that sitting in a doctor's waiting room is so low risk. Indoors alongside a lot of sick people for what can be quite some time?


Went to the doctor last week. Waiting room is closed and the system is that you sit in your car until someone comes and gets you. When i pointed out that I hadn’t arrived by car, the receptionist gave me a "what kind of freak are you" look. And said "well, you’ll just have to stand there then".
Stood in the drizzle for 20 minutes.


----------



## marinyork (4 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Not sure that sitting in a doctor's waiting room is so low risk. Indoors alongside a lot of sick people for what can be quite some time?



As a parental taxi service I can confirm that GP surgeries and A&Es are very quiet.

Not hoping for a horrific shift for A&Es, but I've been into A&E to pick up on a weekend recently and this was one reason why I'm optimistic about the pubs.


----------



## oldwheels (4 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Went to the doctor last week. Waiting room is closed and the system is that you sit in your car until someone comes and gets you. When i pointed out that I hadn’t arrived by car, the receptionist gave me a "what kind of freak are you" look. And said "well, you’ll just have to stand there then".
> Stood in the drizzle for 20 minutes.


Our system is similar as we have to check in by phone {every has a mobile?] and wait outside until called in but two people can get into reception if it is wet. Problem is that their phones seem to be in constant use and getting through can take a while.


----------



## Slick (4 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Went to the doctor last week. Waiting room is closed and the system is that you sit in your car until someone comes and gets you. When i pointed out that I hadn’t arrived by car, the receptionist gave me a "what kind of freak are you" look. And said "well, you’ll just have to stand there then".
> Stood in the drizzle for 20 minutes.


It just seems to blow some people's minds and when you mix in their inability to apply a bit if common sense you end up standing in the drizzle.


----------



## mjr (4 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/WendyGi81590042/status/1278988426830843906



Are numbered accounts on Twitter still generally bots?


----------



## Julia9054 (4 Jul 2020)

Apparently Samuel Pepys did not write that at all.


----------



## mjr (4 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Went to the doctor last week. Waiting room is closed and the system is that you sit in your car until someone comes and gets you. When i pointed out that I hadn’t arrived by car, the receptionist gave me a "what kind of freak are you" look. And said "well, you’ll just have to stand there then".
> Stood in the drizzle for 20 minutes.


Same at mine. My £12 cycling rain cape has been exceptionally good value this year. Going for the long one means I can't quite wear it on the road bike, but it's OK on all the others and means I can usually keep my feet dry when standing by holding the front out a bit.


----------



## Moon bunny (4 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Apparently Samuel Pepys did not write that at all.


Anyone who has read the real Pepys diaries will spot the fake language almost instantly.
It is from here:

View: https://twitter.com/Pepys_Diaries/status/1241107411592785921


----------



## mjr (4 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Well by accident I found out this morning that one of my favourite pubs is closed for good and an unofficial list of pubs opening today is very small indeed.


Please update osm.org either directly or via CityZen, Vespucci, 
Ça Reste Ouvert or another similar app.



> I found the guidance for transport has changed yet again today.


Can someone summarise the changes, please?


----------



## marinyork (4 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Please update osm.org either directly or via CityZen, Vespucci,
> Ça Reste Ouvert or another similar app.



I did use to be an OSM contributor, I could do that.



mjr said:


> Can someone summarise the changes, please?



The official list of changes is:-

4 July 2020
Added information about travelling into, out of and within areas under local lockdown.
3 July 2020
Linking to the list of countries and territories on the travel corridors exemption list.
29 June 2020
Social distancing guidance updated.
14 June 2020
Updated to reflect the upcoming requirement for passengers to wear face coverings on public transport in England.
28 May 2020
Added details of how people with coronavirus symptoms can arrange to have a test to see if they have COVID-19.
23 May 2020
Addition of text 'You should be prepared to remove your face covering if asked to do so by police officers and police staff for the purposes of identification.'
12 May 2020
First published.
This is not really reflective of the changes, I don't read it every day but it's changed very radically, certainly since 13th June.

Now it is 'consider' other transport before public transport, not should or coulds. The guidance has been rewritten with very lengthy and more helpful advice.

Car sharing is now 'recommend' to try and find other means, although it still has the word essential in there, which doesn't seem to be defined any more and the last rewrite I think included 'going outdoors' with others.[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]


----------



## tom73 (4 Jul 2020)

If you want multi million pound contracts no questions asked just ask Hancock if he want's any PPE.
Out of the ones who have they include £108m to a wholesaler of sweets. An employment agency with assets worth just £322 which turns out to an off shore company. They got £18.5m the list go's on all with no questions or track record of PPE. We need to fix supply now and be ready for what's coming. Not this crap it's too important to screw up people have died because of lack PPE , staff have been given and expected to use PPE that's later been shown to be faulty.


----------



## Rezillo (4 Jul 2020)

Well, as far as I can tell is that the Government's position on all of this is:

1. We want you to go out to eat, drink and shop.  Johnson's backers investment funds are at risk of severe depreciation we didn't put you in power for this, you oaf The economy needs you to do this.

2. If you catch Covid-19, it's your fault for not social distancing, rather than Government policy in 1 above.

Despite my cynicism in 1 above, the next few weeks are going to be hell for small businesses, as if it wasn't that already.


----------



## Moon bunny (4 Jul 2020)

I am sat in a pub now, with some good friends, name and phone number given, doesn’t seem too onerous.


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## mjr (4 Jul 2020)

I went to the pub in the next village - and continued straight past to the shop set up in its car park. The pub looked pretty dead. Sadly, one consequence of the pub reopening is that the shop opening hours are being cut because they can't staff both 7 days.

Because they had sold out of yeast (a first since they started selling it), I continued to the campsite shop in the village after that. Big mistake! It was heaving. Campsite looked two-thirds full or a bit more, presumably all arrived today, staff rushing around, invading space of people in the queue to get past for no obvious reason when it looked like they could have walked round the outside of the shop and entered through the wider exit. I gave up and came home but I'll have to find yeast or bread Monday. Bit stupid of me to let it run so low this weekend but I did try to buy it yesterday too and had become complacent with availability improving recently.


----------



## Richard1967 (4 Jul 2020)

Managed to get the weekend away with the motorhome at the Caravan and Motorhome club site on the North Yorkshire moors. All the pitches at least 6 metres apart the club has done a great job making the site COVID secure. Was looking forward to a ride over to Scarborough in the morning but with gale force winds forecast looks like a long walk will be on the menu.


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## marinyork (4 Jul 2020)

Been past three pubs that were open. 8 were not open. 

One had a bouncer and chaperone and looked like the beer garden was 50% open. Some coppers were wandering past deserted streets expecting trouble .

One was totally dead. 

One was somewhat interesting as it appeared to be open even though it's famously lost it's licence. That or a lot of people had turned up with their own beer.


----------



## marinyork (4 Jul 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Well, as far as I can tell is that the Government's position on all of this is:
> 
> 1. We want you to go out to eat, drink and shop.  Johnson's backers investment funds are at risk of severe depreciation we didn't put you in power for this, you oaf The economy needs you to do this.



Government policy is pub, school, jolly holidays, amateur cricket, Matt Hancock.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Can someone summarise the changes, please?


It looks like they don't know at Number Tendentious. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...icule-after-tweeting-incorrect-lockdown-rules


----------



## marinyork (4 Jul 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It looks like they don't know at Number Tendentious. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...icule-after-tweeting-incorrect-lockdown-rules



You can only meet people who don’t live with you outside. Whatever the weather.


----------



## tom73 (4 Jul 2020)

Town centre all the pub's are open other than the small real ale ones. Most placers are pretty full police had just arrived at one spotted a good few that had clear had a few too many. Council out in force they've closed off areas of on street parking to allow safe queueing. 
The same bunch who have told me they don't have staff or money to do the same thing to allow for safe active travel.


----------



## DCLane (4 Jul 2020)

Had a peek in the hairdresser's as I was coming back from my morning ride. They had two seats empty so called in; it'd been an hour's queue that had finished just as arrived at 12. Haircut done; I no longer look like a yeti. Mask / apron / sanitiser all set out and used for everyone; I'm quite impressed for a budget hairdresser.

My 16yo's birthday present was a Young Driver lesson; masks compulsory, hand sanitister and wipes used everywhere and face shields for staff and instructors. This was their first day back operating and again I was impressed.


----------



## Tenacious Sloth (4 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Went to the doctor last week. Waiting room is closed and the system is that you sit in your car until someone comes and gets you. When i pointed out that I hadn’t arrived by car, the receptionist gave me a "what kind of freak are you" look. And said "well, you’ll just have to stand there then".
> Stood in the drizzle for 20 minutes.


That’s fair enough isn’t it?

A bit of light rain at this time of year isn’t going to kill you.


----------



## MntnMan62 (4 Jul 2020)

Played a round of golf yesterday. Both myself and my neighbor who shared the cart with me wore masks the entire time. And we both know that each of us has been self quarantined from the beginning of this thing. Another neighbor who rode in a different cart made fun of me for wearing a mask and I just said, we both wore it and neither one of us wants to take the chance. That's all it takes. Just one slip up and it's lights out. I value life more than that. This won't last forever but it is going to last for a while. Probably another year or so until a vaccine is developed and distributed. You social distance and wear a mask until it's safe. THAT is life.


----------



## Julia9054 (4 Jul 2020)

Tenacious Sloth said:


> That’s fair enough isn’t it?
> 
> A bit of light rain at this time of year isn’t going to kill you.


Not a problem at all for me. May be a problem for someone old or feeling very poorly. It was the fact that they hadn’t contemplated the fact that someone might turn up without a car.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (4 Jul 2020)

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/hl1j9b/level_of_trust_in_providing_of_information_on/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share


----------



## mjr (4 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> [...] closed off areas of on street parking to allow safe queueing.
> The same bunch who have told me they don't have staff or money to do the same thing to allow for safe active travel.


Yes but be fair: this virus kills people and it's not like anyone ever died because of an unsafe road layout... Oh. :-(


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Jul 2020)

Moon bunny said:


> I am sat in a pub now, with some good friends, name and phone number given, doesn’t seem too onerous.



Minnie Mouse - 0800 COVID


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Not a problem at all for me. May be a problem for someone old or feeling very poorly. It was the fact that they hadn’t contemplated the fact that someone might turn up without a car.



Sure turning up on foot or a bike is common? Surely the majority don’t drive.


----------



## Julia9054 (4 Jul 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Sure turning up on foot or a bike is common? Surely the majority don’t drive.


You’d think so


----------



## tom73 (4 Jul 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/deepexperience1/status/1279534648461348865?s=20


----------



## randynewmanscat (5 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> As a parental taxi service I can confirm that GP surgeries and A&Es are very quiet.
> 
> Not hoping for a horrific shift for A&Es, but I've been into A&E to pick up on a weekend recently and this was one reason why I'm optimistic about the pubs.


Are you still optimistic?


----------



## marinyork (5 Jul 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Are you still optimistic?



Yes. I can take some really boring photos of my city if you want.

I'm detecting airs of a lot of very much older white males, on this thread and board in general, locked away in large homes from the rest of the population (where the risk of them getting the virus is miniscule) posting on the thread(s) and working themselves up to be more and more agitated by what's posted in our media. This is especially true of one off photos and videos and of particular areas e.g. Soho. I'm not sure it does the people of this thread, even younger ones any good.

If you want to get on your rufty tufty moral panic and outrage hobby horse, the last week there have been some really bad shootings nearby. Perhaps you can come to my area and sort them out?

I looked at the city/town infection rates this morning that run to 28th June for English places (mostly listed).






Most of those have shown falls.

I don't want any Daily Mail style front page visitors to A&E, however when I went to A&E to pick up my mother the place was so unbelievably empty that increasing the number of drink related visits will hopefully not overwhelm it. You're focusing on Soho and Borough market. Around here it was dead. Local social media here and local papers said how quiet it was and they are usually the first to flat up if anything is busy.


----------



## randynewmanscat (5 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm detecting airs of a lot of very much older white males, on this thread and board in general, locked away in large homes from the rest of the population (where the risk of them getting the virus is miniscule) posting on the thread(s) and working themselves up to be more and more agitated by what's posted in our media.


I'm an old duffer for sure but I go out to bars regularly and have been since after reopening at the start of June. What I do notice when out is that after people have had a few towards the end of the night they become less cautious. They also talk louder and as other people talk louder so do they to be heard, many is the time I have needed to discreetly wipe away spit droplets from my fizzog as a friend tried to be heard while talking with me.
I am no paranoid and life must go on but the photos I have seen clearly show large groups of people, strangers to each other in close proximity.


----------



## randynewmanscat (5 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> I don't want any Daily Mail style front page visitors to A&E, however when I went to A&E to pick up my mother the place was so unbelievably empty that increasing the number of drink related visits will hopefully not overwhelm it. You're focusing on Soho and Borough market. Around here it was dead. Local social media here and local papers said how quiet it was and they are usually the first to flat up if anything is busy.


I'll ask my sister in law how it went next time we speak, she does not work in A&E but she knows the staff well as the cardiothoracic clinic she works in is down the corridor. Wythenshawe hospital is a large metropolitan area facility and I have been a customer once or twice myself, the A&E reception is like a zoo on a weekend night and of a weekday afternoon as are the onward receptions for radiography and so forth. What the security staff get out of a job there I do not know but they are busy.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (5 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> Compare and contrast two US states. One has taken the virus seriously and kept restrictions in place for longer. The other hasn't.
> 
> View attachment 533848



Florida simply has had it's coronavirus outbreak much later than New York state. The USA is such a vast place that each state really should be considered as though it was a country in it's own right. At the time NY was experiencing a huge peak, there was very little virus spreading in FL. It's also worth noting the infection rate in NY was higher, even though you claim they were taking it seriously whereas FL haven't. Now the situation is reversed; a large amount of the population in NY have already previously contracted the virus, and there are less people still susceptible to catching it. The FL infection rate will rapidly rise to a peak, then it will rapidly fall away again. I very much doubt the shape of the infection graph from the point where cases begin to rapidly rise will be that different, apart from the timeline.


----------



## Rocky (5 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Florida simply has had it's coronavirus outbreak much later than New York state. The USA is such a vast place that each state really should be considered as though it was a country in it's own right. At the time NY was experiencing a huge peak, there was very little virus spreading in FL. It's also worth noting the infection rate in NY was higher, even though you claim they were taking it seriously whereas FL haven't. Now the situation is reversed; a large amount of the population in NY have already previously contracted the virus, and there are less people still susceptible to catching it. The FL infection rate will rapidly rise to a peak, then it will rapidly fall away again. I very much doubt the shape of the infection graph from the point where cases begin to rapidly rise will be that different, apart from the timeline.


Any evidence to support this? Or is it just what you’d like to happen. 

Many states never took Coronavirus seriously. Trump never took it seriously. That is why the pandemic is so devastating. There is no evidence that things are about to change.


----------



## Rusty Nails (5 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Yes. I can take some really boring photos of my city if you want.
> 
> I'm detecting airs of a lot of very much older white males, on this thread and board in general, locked away in large homes from the rest of the population (where the risk of them getting the virus is miniscule) posting on the thread(s) and working themselves up to be more and more agitated by what's posted in our media. This is especially true of one off photos and videos and of particular areas e.g. Soho. I'm not sure it does the people of this thread, even younger ones any good.
> 
> ...



Just one point on those figures. Merthyr doesn't actually have 100,000 people (44,000) so the pro rata figures for the town as a whole are hugely inflated by the 130 cases confirmed at the Kepak meat plant in the past two weeks.

As with news photos, bare statistics don't give the full picture.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (5 Jul 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Any evidence to support this?



Take a look at the graph. At around the 25-30 day mark, the infection rate in Florida was only a tenth of that in New York. The epidemic never really got going there at the time NY and the other North Eastern states were getting hit.
You like to slag off Trump at any opportunity for purely political reasons, but public health in the US is devolved to state level. Deciding on what action should be taken locally in respect of the virus was never really Trump's responsibility.
Each state took a view on how much it wanted to keep the virus numbers down versus how much economic damage it was prepared to inflict on it's economy. You have also taken no account of the nature of US society. It is highly individualistic and libertarian in outlook overall. People don't tend to like being bossed around by the government and told what they can and cant do. They take their constitutional rights very seriously and a high proportion of them are heavily armed. The USA would never tolerate a country-wide strict European or Chinese style lockdown. That's the political reality and the Governors in each state will have known the limits that their own population would tolerate. That level of tolerance in a lot of the Southern and Western states would be pretty low, and even what you might consider half-hearted measures were enough to cause a number of anti-lockdown protests as it was.


----------



## Rocky (5 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You like to slag off Trump at any opportunity for purely political reasons, but public health in the US is devolved to state level. Deciding on what action should be taken locally in respect of the virus was never really Trump's responsibility.


I said that Trump didn't take it seriously.....and here is my evidence:

https://www.vox.com/2020/6/8/21242003/trump-failed-coronavirus-response

To summarise: he denies it's a problem, he pressurises health services to stop testing, he suggests ludicrous cures (bleach, strong light), he promotes hydroxychloroquine (without evidence), he won't wear a mask, he holds a rally in a hotspot area, he doesn't understand the science, he blames everyone else (good opportunity for him to show some racism). He has tried to open up the economy at the most dangerous time and many people have died as a result. (See the free to view FT article for further evidence: https://www.ft.com/content/97dc7de6-940b-11ea-abcd-371e24b679ed)

The outcome? To date: 2.89m reported infections. 132,000 reported deaths. Trump has blood on his hands. Boris is not far behind in his incompetence - so many deaths and all because of poor populist leadership.


----------



## AndyRM (5 Jul 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I said that Trump didn't take it seriously.....and here is my evidence:
> 
> https://www.vox.com/2020/6/8/21242003/trump-failed-coronavirus-response
> 
> ...



I don't "like" this, but you know...

Anyway, and I know I risk a thread ban (again). Trump and Johnson are utter, utter f*ckwits. Slagging either of them off isn't a political thing. It's almost too easy.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (5 Jul 2020)

AndyRM said:


> Trump and Johnson are utter, utter f*ckwits. Slagging either of them off isn't a political thing.



Of course it's political, it's 100% political. In Trump and Johnson, you've got two significant right wing leaders, both of whom have no time for the status quo left/centre political consensus and little belief in supranational institutions - and all the leftists don't like it. They've all been having complete shoot fits on a constant basis ever since both Trump and Johnson took power.


----------



## Rocky (5 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Of course it's political, it's 100% political. In Trump and Johnson, you've got two significant right wing leaders, both of whom have no time for the status quo left/centre political consensus and little belief in supranational institutions - and all the leftists don't like it. They've all been having complete shoot fits on a constant basis ever since both Trump and Johnson took power.


And between them they are culpable for over 100,000 deaths from Covid because of their unwillingness to do the right thing.

BTW I'm not leftist.......I'm very much centre of the road and care very much about all the unnecessary lives lost.


----------



## mjr (5 Jul 2020)

No sign of applause this afternoon in our village. I'm not sure if it's because government are shoot at getting the message out (I'd seen nothing about it until last night) or because people don't want to support a government applause rather than the grassroots one during lockdown. Or maybe people aren't home yet. Or something else.


----------



## Rocky (5 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> No sign of applause this afternoon in our village. I'm not sure if it's because government are shoot at getting the message out (I'd seen nothing about it until last night) or because people don't want to support a government applause rather than the grassroots one during lockdown. Or maybe people aren't home yet. Or something else.


Nothing here either...........everyone I know who works in the NHS, says that instead of Boris and Hancock clapping for them, they'd prefer to see movement on the 40 promised hospitals, a decent supply of PPE and senior figures sticking to the social distancing/quarantine rules.


----------



## Slick (5 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> No sign of applause this afternoon in our village. I'm not sure if it's because government are shoot at getting the message out (I'd seen nothing about it until last night) or because people don't want to support a government applause rather than the grassroots one during lockdown. Or maybe people aren't home yet. Or something else.


I was out for a walk with Mrs Slick and just came back into the village as an older couple came out and started clapping. I honestly just forgot and just joined in with them and others. My own neighbour's probably think I'm ignorant and never left the house.


----------



## marinyork (5 Jul 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sorder-prove-unfounded-as-english-pubs-reopen

The guardian's take.


----------



## Slick (5 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sorder-prove-unfounded-as-english-pubs-reopen
> 
> The guardian's take.


John Apter was much more vocal on the news tonight pleading with the government to take notice.


----------



## marinyork (5 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> John Apter was much more vocal on the news tonight pleading with the government to take notice.



I saw Apter much earlier, aware. 

The three local forces here all put out relieved/positive comments.

I have a friend who has been to four? pubs the last 24 hours. Said it's fairly quiet. Although I think going to so many is an unnecessary risk.


----------



## mjr (5 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> I have a friend who has been to four? pubs the last 24 hours. Said it's fairly quiet. Although I think going to so many is an unnecessary risk.


I'm deterred by the need to give permission for DIDO Harding's "Track and Trace" to have my contact info, even if I'm just buying a drink to sit outside with, nowhere near others. Surely pubs must be unhappy having to use the "Track and Trace" toxic brand on gov't-issue compulsory posters?


----------



## marinyork (6 Jul 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Just one point on those figures. Merthyr doesn't actually have 100,000 people (44,000) so the pro rata figures for the town as a whole are hugely inflated by the 130 cases confirmed at the Kepak meat plant in the past two weeks.
> 
> As with news photos, bare statistics don't give the full picture.



The news reports have said that in Merthyr that it was very much the factory, supposedly on top of it, may nothing to worry about (see next week or the week after). In contrast in Leicester some noises coming out of PHE was that they were a bit puzzled about sources and there was no large obvious source. 

This is maybe the system working a bit. In different bits of the world China, Spain, Australia, UK, South Korea and others there have been local restrictions reimposed.


----------



## marinyork (6 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> I'm deterred by the need to give permission for DIDO Harding's "Track and Trace" to have my contact info, even if I'm just buying a drink to sit outside with, nowhere near others. Surely pubs must be unhappy having to use the "Track and Trace" toxic brand on gov't-issue compulsory posters?



It's one of the reasons I don't especially worry about the app disproportionately as it's all the same mismanaged thing.


----------



## tom73 (6 Jul 2020)

Indeed they have bought in restrictions difference is they get 40, 50 or even less new cases and bang lockdown. Talk of local lock down is mostly that we take 12 days to do anything with 100's of cases. Add in the mess that was handing over local public health to LA's who's paymasters are more focused on being popular at all costs. it's not going to easy to do what is needed to keep the lid on this at a local level. 
Placers with high rates maybe falling but they are still a bit too high for comfort. All you get told is you're not in danger of a local lockdown. 
Which brings into question what just what the numbers of cases has to be for action to be taken? If nationally and more importantly locally they just came out and told you at least you'd know truly want the risk was. Instead you can the usual PR press release and political spin. 
Maybe a local infection risk score needs bringing in with simple clear public health messaging for each level. nothing too complex a simple traffic light like one would do maybe?The national one was never going to work it came in way too late and even the government passed it by. 

We may get away with the pubs opening for the next few weeks but at some point opening everything up even with measures in place. Something is forced to happen if other part's of the world with let's face it are way better at this than we are. Are having new cases then so are we. Testing is still not good enough, tracing is not good enough numbers of contacts that can't be found has really not moved since it started. Without much better public health messages both at a national and local level we are more than at risk than most of cases going up.


----------



## midlife (6 Jul 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-cumbria-53262545

Scroll down to the report 16.28

Not been told there had been an outbreak at our Hospital, we are trying to encourage people back to our clinics so not a good advert.....


----------



## tom73 (7 Jul 2020)

Royal Society in two new reports backs face coverings in public with clear message "don't leave home without one" 
Not wearing a face covering should be regarded as "anti-social" in the same way as drink driving or failing to wear a seatbelt, say president 
Who believes the problem is "the message has not been clear enough" and guidelines have been inconsistent. 
https://royalsociety.org/news/2020/...ciety-urges-everyone-to-wear-a-face-covering/


----------



## roubaixtuesday (7 Jul 2020)

One in six Britons would refuse a COVID vaccine. 

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2...six-britons-say-would-refuse-covid-19-vaccine





And thrice I say


----------



## roubaixtuesday (7 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> "the message has not been clear enough"



In other news, ursine faecal matter discovered in arboreal areas.


----------



## Johnno260 (7 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> One in six Britons would refuse a COVID vaccine.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/media/2...six-britons-say-would-refuse-covid-19-vaccine
> 
> ...



oh well it solves some issues.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (7 Jul 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> oh well it solves some issues.



Well not really as it means the current situation carries on for ever.


----------



## Johnno260 (7 Jul 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Well not really as it means the current situation carries on for ever.


I know I was being semi sarcastic and thinking we could rid the world of some grade-A idiots.

I had some arguments with anti vax members of the family, when they say x illness still exists even with vaccines I replied yes as idiots like you don't take them, look at the measles out breaks in the USA as a classic example.

Same relative told my mother not to have the flu jab as it has mercury in it, yes it's a mercury based ingredient sure, but it's not as if they give you a shot of what's in the thermometer..

This out break really has highlighted the idiocy, selfish attitude of many, I would say I'm surprised by that statistic but I really am not.


----------



## fossyant (7 Jul 2020)

I thought the Anti-vax'ers had gone a bit quiet ?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (7 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> I thought the Anti-vax'ers had gone a bit quiet ?



Nope. 

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2184


----------



## tom73 (7 Jul 2020)

Sadly not they are having a field day at the moment evidence points to them being likely to believe in anything going.
Many are linked to the 5G mob and the arrest of or do worse to Billy Gates.
BBC showed the report a few days ago https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000ksfh


----------



## fossyant (7 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Nope.
> 
> https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2184



Mind boggles. Like many, I'm not concerned about catching it, it's carrying it on my skin or clothes and touching something that someone else picks up that's vulnerable, especially relatives that won't survive a bout of this. I really don't get anti-vax'ers in a situation where we have a new, contagious virus. OK, maybe don't for some of the less prevalent viruses, as chances are you might not catch it, as many people have had the vaccine.


----------



## flake99please (7 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> One in six Britons would refuse a COVID vaccine.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/media/2...six-britons-say-would-refuse-covid-19-vaccine
> 
> ...


How many of those have had, or know of someone who has had a suspected issue with their MMR vaccinations?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (7 Jul 2020)

flake99please said:


> How many of those have had, or know of someone who has had a suspected issue with their MMR vaccinations?



How many "suspected" issues would depend on how suspicious you are, I suspect.


----------



## flake99please (7 Jul 2020)

My youngest daughter is due to give birth between Christmas and new year. I doubt she would take a vaccine if there were one available before then.


----------



## mjr (7 Jul 2020)

flake99please said:


> My youngest daughter is due to give birth between Christmas and new year. I doubt she would take a vaccine if there were one available before then.


Sure, there will always be some arguably good reasons not to take it, but I think that won't add up to anything like one in six.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (7 Jul 2020)

flake99please said:


> My youngest daughter is due to give birth between Christmas and new year. I doubt she would take a vaccine if there were one available before then.



Difficult to judge that one. 

My prejudice is that the dangers of potential covid infection during pregnancy might well outweigh any risk from vaccination. 

But I hasten to add I don't know anything quantitative about either risk and my prejudice could be wildly wrong.


----------



## newfhouse (7 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> I thought the Anti-vax'ers had gone a bit quiet ?


The only known cure - education - is unpalatable to many of the victims, but if you don’t deal quickly with outbreaks they can spread via social media and grow exponentially with devastating consequences. Perhaps we need an anti-vax vaccination.


----------



## Johnno260 (7 Jul 2020)

To be honest I pretty much class an anti vac person to a flat earther.
Maybe it's a harsh line to take, but to be honest I'm past caring.


----------



## tom73 (7 Jul 2020)

ONS findings back up already well known fact that most people with covid don't have a clue about. 
Question is how many are they unwilling infecting? 
Seen and heard plenty of placers saying we use on door temperature checks but very few go on to say we encourage face covering. 
The former is pointless the latter however can help. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53320155


----------



## mjr (7 Jul 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> To be honest I pretty much class an anti vac person to a flat earther.
> Maybe it's a harsh line to take, but to be honest I'm past caring.


We need to be careful with flat earthers. We don't want to tip them over the edge! 🤡


----------



## marinyork (7 Jul 2020)

Bolsonaro has the virus, Melbourne imposes restrictions along with many other bits of the world in recent days.

It's going to be a busy summer.


----------



## mjr (7 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Bolsonaro has the virus, Melbourne imposes restrictions along with many other bits of the world in recent days.
> 
> It's going to be a busy summer.


A busy summer for Bill Gates's hit squads infecting the world leaders not doing as they're told!

Sorry, I've been reading fakebook too much...


----------



## Tanis8472 (7 Jul 2020)

Is there anything these farking daffodils won't do? 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/MartinSLewis/status/1280447409080983553


----------



## Adam4868 (7 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Bolsonaro has the virus,


Bolsonaro has Karma.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (7 Jul 2020)

Devastating indictment of Johnson's handling of the care sector after his recent criticism of it. 

_"During the coronavirus crisis, the sector has suffered from a woeful lack of PPE, testing and clear government guidance"_

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...the-uk-boris-johnsons-comments-were-an-insult


----------



## Salty seadog (7 Jul 2020)

In case anyone missed it this morning here is an interview with care charity leader Mark Adams. He uncompromisingly takes aim at BJs comments shifting blame on the care sector. 

I fully endorse this strong message from a man not mincing his words with piffle, wha, wha, whatto , baaah. Etc. 

Two thumbs up. 


View: https://youtu.be/CqLM0xjOjcc


----------



## roubaixtuesday (7 Jul 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> In case anyone missed it this morning here is an interview with care charity leader Mark Adams. He uncompromisingly takes aim at BJs comments shifting blame on the care sector.
> 
> I fully endorse this strong message from a man not mincing his words with piffle, wha, wha, whatto , baaah. Etc.
> 
> ...




Same guy who wrote the Graun article above


----------



## midlife (7 Jul 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Is there anything these farking daffodils won't do?
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/MartinSLewis/status/1280447409080983553





I wonder if that includes the recent antibody test from my employer. Negative, which is in contrast to several colleagues.


----------



## tom73 (7 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> I wonder if that includes the recent antibody test from my employer. Negative, which is in contrast to several colleagues.


That looks to depend on if the NHS buys the test of it’s self and processes them at the on-site lab or a 3rd party. 
https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/employees-pay-additional-tax-workplace-covid-19-testing/


----------



## midlife (7 Jul 2020)

The wording looks like if the NHS buys the test kits..... Which it does, then the employee is taxed. What odd wording!


----------



## tom73 (7 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> The wording looks like if the NHS buys the test kits..... Which it does, then the employee is taxed. What odd wording!


At least you won’t have to worry about if you should declare your free parking. 
The government are set to axe it. Happy Birthday NHS 
it https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/n...risis-498590?ito=social|facebook|fb_theipaper


----------



## classic33 (7 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> One in six Britons would refuse a COVID vaccine.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/media/2...six-britons-say-would-refuse-covid-19-vaccine
> 
> ...


And for those who have trouble with vaccines. Never had any "jabs" at school, flu jab isn't advisable. Minor complications with everyday medications "that anyone can take/be given".


----------



## Julia9054 (7 Jul 2020)

classic33 said:


> And for those who have trouble with vaccines. Never had any "jabs" at school, flu jab isn't advisable. Minor complications with everyday medications "that anyone can take/be given".


1 in 6 do not have trouble with vaccines. The rest of us get vaccinated to protect the few individuals who cannot be for genuine medical reasons


----------



## Mugshot (8 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sadly not they are having a field day at the moment evidence points to them being likely to believe in anything going.
> Many are linked to the 5G mob and the arrest of or do worse to Billy Gates.
> BBC showed the report a few days ago https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000ksfh


Thank you for that. And, as with so much else currently, there is absolutely no getting through to these people, you do wonder what the answer is. Shut down the internet maybe.


----------



## midlife (8 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> At least you won’t have to worry about if you should declare your free parking.
> The government are set to axe it. Happy Birthday NHS
> it https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/nhs-workers-pay-parking-hospitals-explained-coronavirus-crisis-498590?ito=social|facebook|fb_theipaper



As another birthday present the NHS is cutting travel allowances for staff on the Agenda For Change payscales.


----------



## CanucksTraveller (8 Jul 2020)

It's a quandary of modern life isn't it, in the pre-internet days these people who have daft conspiracy ideas would largely only get to speak to other, fairly normal thinking people and would slowly gain evidence or realise that their theory was possibly wrong... you'd get the odd one that persevered because they were right at the looney / militant end of the "wrong" scale and they'd be shunned as a bit odd. That strange bloke in the pub that everyone avoids. 

A sad byproduct of internet connectivity is that it allows people with dodgy beliefs and theories to very easily and directly find others who back them and their theories up. It's instant confirmation bias, handed to the stupid on a plate. 

It's not helped that some outstandingly thick people have so much influence thanks to the internet. Anne Marie, (a croaky Essex rapper, if you're not down with the kids) has 1 million twitter followers and used that influence to urge people to burn 5G towers because they were transmitting coronavirus. We are literally living in idiocracy.


----------



## derrick (8 Jul 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Thank you for that. And, as with so much else currently, there is absolutely no getting through to these people, you do wonder what the answer is. *Shut down the internet maybe.
> *



Or just the twats on twitter.


----------



## fossyant (8 Jul 2020)

Just heard via a colleague and NHS, that Sheffield isn't far off going back into Lockdown !


----------



## tom73 (8 Jul 2020)

It's a difficult one which has to be well thought out and debated. It's a fine line between state censorship and state enforcement on internet providers and content providers of it's social responsibilities. In the end it all come's down to empowering people to understand how to navigate the online world. Which will only happen with better education particularly most digital skills are still way too much about how it works and not how to understand what your looking at and how your online actions can effect others.
On the anti vac thing the NHS are really concerned they recently did a lot of work into what was really going on and what they need to do it counter it. They have accepted that they have been slow and don't do enough online to counter it. The work also highlighted the need to train staff so they can better inform people who see stuff online. E.g many see don't give your kid that it has x in which is a poison. It may have but it's so tiny it's not an issue. Many staff may not even know the fine detail how much we are really talking about. so can't really explain and put fear to rest. The vac training is all about the clinical stuff and which ones you need, when, stock management and who can and can't have them. That not saying it's too basic as it's not. Vac's are much more than a quick jab. But it has little about how to counter act much of the misinformation other than saying it's safe and don't worry. A lot of the anti stuff is why more than that taking fewer to a whole new level. Much of it look's to many on the face of it really detailed "science" so must be true. The don't worry message wont cut though you need to match it with an even better true science reply in a way that they can understand.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 Jul 2020)

Allegedly, WHO are being slow to accept growing evidence about how the disease is airborne. Meanwhile, we have a whole bunch of aerosols in the cabinet.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...dence-emerging-of-airborne-coronavirus-spread


----------



## Mugshot (8 Jul 2020)

derrick said:


> Or just the twats on twitter.


I'd say it was significantly more wide spread than twitter and probably a little less mainstream too.


----------



## midlife (8 Jul 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Allegedly, WHO are being slow to accept growing evidence about how the disease is airborne. Meanwhile, we have a whole bunch of aerosols in the cabinet.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...dence-emerging-of-airborne-coronavirus-spread



Yep, tricky one. The restart of hospitals and dentistry has assumed that airborne transmission only occurs when we do something invasive and produce an aerosol. If airborne transmission happens when people breath and speak then that could be a bit of a game changer.

Full PPE for every patient contact......


----------



## marinyork (8 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> Just heard via a colleague and NHS, that Sheffield isn't far off going back into Lockdown !



There are a lot of rumours. These seem mostly based on w/e 28th June 24 cases per 100,000 and the week before which was 20. It is in the top 10 highest local authority areas but rising. Maybe new figures are unofficially circulating already. John Wright goes on tv all the time saying he's worried about Bradford/Kirkless/Sheffield/Doncaster etc.


----------



## tom73 (8 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Yep, tricky one. The restart of hospitals and dentistry has assumed that airborne transmission only occurs when we do something invasive and produce an aerosol. If airborne transmission happens when people breath and speak then that could be a bit of a game changer.
> 
> Full PPE for every patient contact......



Agree with you a real rethink will be needed for sure. The growing body of evidence is pointing to a rethink is getting closer.


----------



## marinyork (8 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Agree with you a real rethink will be needed for sure. The growing body of evidence is pointing to a rethink is getting closer.



Much more worrying than dentistry is Boris said on LBC that gyms and possibly beauty salons which include intimate facial procedures might be able to reopen soon. They need a frigging plan.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Jul 2020)

Face masks to be compulsory at all times in public from next week in Catalonia.


----------



## fossyant (8 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Yep, tricky one. The restart of hospitals and dentistry has assumed that airborne transmission only occurs when we do something invasive and produce an aerosol. If airborne transmission happens when people breath and speak then that could be a bit of a game changer.
> 
> Full PPE for every patient contact......



My brother is a dentist. He co-owns the practice, and they are split into two teams, so if one of the 'team' goes down, they all quarantine, and the other team can carry on. To get round this, they work 2.5 days a week per team, and can see a maximum of 5 patients, with an hour or so between to clean.

He has a full respirator on ! Sounds horrific. They are still limited to treatments. Nothing too invasive.


----------



## marinyork (8 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Face masks to be compulsory at all times in public from next week in Catalonia.



If you're even allowed out in public much which some areas aren't.


----------



## marinyork (8 Jul 2020)

*Sunak announces discount worth up to £10 per head for eating out in August*
*Sunak *says his final measure has never been tried in this country.
It is an “eat out to help out scheme”, offering customers as discount worth up to £10 per head when they eat out from Monday to Wednesday in August.


----------



## Slick (8 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> *Sunak announces discount worth up to £10 per head for eating out in August*
> *Sunak *says his final measure has never been tried in this country.
> It is an “eat out to help out scheme”, offering customers as discount worth up to £10 per head when they eat out from Monday to Wednesday in August.


That's us saved then.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Jul 2020)

Shadow Chancellor was funny. Usually Opposition Chancellors stand up and complain bitterly about spending plans. Today she couldn't do much more than "er thanks for doing what we said had to be done".


----------



## tom73 (8 Jul 2020)

Hillingdon Hospital shuts to emergencies after outbreak some 70 staff now self isolating. 
Clearly not been staying alert have they Boris? 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-53335584


----------



## midlife (8 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> My brother is a dentist. He co-owns the practice, and they are split into two teams, so if one of the 'team' goes down, they all quarantine, and the other team can carry on. To get round this, they work 2.5 days a week per team, and can see a maximum of 5 patients, with an hour or so between to clean.
> 
> He has a full respirator on ! Sounds horrific. They are still limited to treatments. Nothing too invasive.



Yep, how we work and play has changed beyond recognition


----------



## Beebo (8 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Hillingdon Hospital shuts to emergencies after outbreak some 70 staff now self isolating.
> Clearly not been staying alert have they Boris?
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-53335584


I wonder who the MP for that area is?
They must be really annoyed with the government’s actions.


----------



## tom73 (8 Jul 2020)

Beebo said:


> I wonder who the MP for that area is?
> They must be really annoyed with the government’s actions.


Maybe they should contact him and get him to bring the matter to the attention of the PM.


----------



## mjr (8 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> *Sunak announces discount worth up to £10 per head for eating out in August*
> *Sunak *says his final measure has never been tried in this country.
> It is an “eat out to help out scheme”, offering customers as discount worth up to £10 per head when they eat out from Monday to Wednesday in August.


Why don't they just go the whole hog and give the plebs the meal free if they catch covid under the Herd Immunity Grants Scheme for Bozos? Or the HIGS-Bozo plan for short.


----------



## mjr (8 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> At least you won’t have to worry about if you should declare your free parking.
> The government are set to axe it. Happy Birthday NHS
> it https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/n...risis-498590?ito=social|facebook|fb_theipaper


Heavens forbid that the national HEALTH service should support HEALTHier travel and not one-person-per-pollution-generator modes(!) I expect there are some who cannot reasonably travel to work except by single-occupancy car (too far/hazardous for e-bike, no public transport, no carpooling possible) who should be given free season tickets, but I find this insistence on blanket free staff car parking rather odd because it must contribute to the motoring death spiral seen at many NHS sites where the danger posed by the high proportion of car journeys deters those who could cycle/e-bike from doing so, both workers and patients, with obvious negative effects on public health.


----------



## mjr (8 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> That's us saved then.


Are you part of Wetherspoons then? https://www.suffolkgazette.com/busi...-forward-to-half-price-meals-at-wetherspoons/


----------



## Mugshot (8 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Why don't they just go the whole hog and give the plebs the meal free if they catch covid under the Herd Immunity Grants Scheme for Bozos? Or the HIGS-Bozo plan for short.


They're using a maskless super spreader instead. 


View: https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1280903069383958528?s=20


----------



## midlife (8 Jul 2020)

Mugshot said:


> They're using a maskless super spreader instead.
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1280903069383958528?s=20




I saw that and couldn't work out if it was a pre- covid news clip or from today?


----------



## Mugshot (8 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> I saw that and couldn't work out if it was a pre- covid news clip or from today?


Certainly appears from the BBC article it's from today to highlight the voucher thing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53268594


----------



## tom73 (8 Jul 2020)

I’ve just watch this and it looks like it’s new the table have screens. If so not one member staff is using PPE.
Covid secure clearly not the whole thing is a joke.
Wonder if he had to leave is contact details


----------



## derrick (8 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Hillingdon Hospital shuts to emergencies after outbreak some 70 staff now self isolating.
> Clearly not been staying alert have they Boris?
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-53335584


The country is full of morons. People think they are imune.


----------



## Inertia (8 Jul 2020)

Mugshot said:


> They're using a maskless super spreader instead.
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1280903069383958528?s=20



Cringeworthy journalism, and what happened to social distancing?


----------



## mjr (9 Jul 2020)

Inertia said:


> Cringeworthy journalism, and what happened to social distancing?


It's been sent so far away. So far away. So far away. There'll be little wonder if we see a second wave. ;-)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WXdwKbfplg


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## Joey Shabadoo (9 Jul 2020)

A question about this cut in VAT for tourism and entertainment businesses. It's being reported that this cut is to help the businesses and they aren't expected to pass the savings on to customers. AIUI, VAT is a government tax collected by the businesses. Is it not illegal to collect a tax and not pass it on? Or am I getting the wrong end of the stick here?


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## mjr (9 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> A question about this cut in VAT for tourism and entertainment businesses. It's being reported that this cut is to help the businesses and they aren't expected to pass the savings on to customers. AIUI, VAT is a government tax collected by the businesses. Is it not illegal to collect a tax and not pass it on? Or am I getting the wrong end of the stick here?


Retailers in the UK generally show VAT inclusive prices and aren't required to show the rate, so I don't see where the fraud would be?


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## Beebo (9 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> A question about this cut in VAT for tourism and entertainment businesses. It's being reported that this cut is to help the businesses and they aren't expected to pass the savings on to customers. AIUI, VAT is a government tax collected by the businesses. Is it not illegal to collect a tax and not pass it on? Or am I getting the wrong end of the stick here?


The VAT inclusive ticket price stays the same, The customer see no difference but the retailer makes more profit. 

If a product is £20 then the actual income to the business is £16.66 plus VAT at 20%. 

VAT at 5% the retailers income is £19.04. 
So they make £2.38 extra profit. 

No one is withholding any tax.


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## midlife (9 Jul 2020)

I thought the idea of a cut in VAT was that goods and services became cheaper so consumers would buy more ?


----------



## marinyork (9 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> I thought the idea of a cut in VAT was that goods and services became cheaper so consumers would buy more ?



I think it's to try and stop the complete collapse of some retail, hospitality, pubs and restaurants by trying to make up for reduced footfall of a half and cover the businesses that have large, but less apocalyptic falls in revenue.


----------



## flake99please (9 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> I thought the idea of a cut in VAT was that goods and services became cheaper so consumers would buy more ?



I expect prices to remain the same. The government will take less from the retailer in taxes.


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## mjr (9 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> I thought the idea of a cut in VAT was that goods and services became cheaper so consumers would buy more ?


Nothing about that in the announcement https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2020-07-08a.973.0 and I think it unlikely that the Chancellor expects every affected business to reprint all their menus and amend all their signs for a six month price cut.


----------



## fossyant (9 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Heavens forbid that the national HEALTH service should support HEALTHier travel and not one-person-per-pollution-generator modes(!) I expect there are some who cannot reasonably travel to work except by single-occupancy car (too far/hazardous for e-bike, no public transport, no carpooling possible) who should be given free season tickets, but I find this insistence on blanket free staff car parking rather odd because it must contribute to the motoring death spiral seen at many NHS sites where the danger posed by the high proportion of car journeys deters those who could cycle/e-bike from doing so, both workers and patients, with obvious negative effects on public health.



Many places have staff who travel on public transport. My employer is offering free spaces once we go back, but can only accommodate 24% of staff - the reason is staff aren't comfortable getting public transport, and won't come in other than in the car to 'keep safe'. This is why Trusts are currently stopping parking charges for staff - it has to be fair for all. I won't be using public transport at all. Car, bike or walk.


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## fossyant (9 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Nothing about that in the announcement https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2020-07-08a.973.0 and I think it unlikely that the Chancellor expects every affected business to reprint all their menus and amend all their signs for a six month price cut.



Most are re-printing to disposable or on-line menus.


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## midlife (9 Jul 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53334098

About half way down, expectation of the effect of the last VAT cut after the credit crash.


----------



## marinyork (9 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53334098
> 
> About half way down, expectation of the effect of the last VAT cut after the credit crash.



Many of us lived through the world financial crisis and were even unemployed so saw the effects of government actions, or inactions or those actions not working. If you want to go down that avenue go more beefy.

The article talks about then and it says itself it wasn't felt it'd work. I remember people talking about it on tv a couple of years after saying it should have been bigger and other things done. It's only partially relevant here.

The world financial crisis was very different in my opinion. Do you want me to start quoting economic policy after the napoleonic wars or black death in 1347?


----------



## mjr (9 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53334098
> 
> About half way down, expectation of the effect of the last VAT cut after the credit crash.


Different cut, different scope, different time, different aim.


----------



## mjr (9 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> This is why Trusts are currently stopping parking charges for staff - it has to be fair for all. I won't be using public transport at all. Car, bike or walk.


OK, so how is encouraging unnecessary single-user heavy vehicles fair to people walking and cycling? Especially at sites where there isn't enough good cycle parking anyway.


----------



## fossyant (9 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> OK, so how is encouraging unnecessary single-user heavy vehicles fair to people walking and cycling? Especially at sites where there isn't enough good cycle parking anyway.



Remember not everyone can ,or will walk or cycle - look my colleagues think I'm crazy riding for 2 hours, never mind 4 or 5. We're in a strange situation - many of my colleagues do take public transport - given the parking we have 75% either use public transport, walk or cycle. Most won't go near public transport now, so how else will they get in to work when required. Many folk have health conditions, so avoiding areas of risk is important. Cyclists/walkers are a small minority - you aren't going to change folk. employers are trying to give staff an option to come into work safely, and work flexibly - early or late starts etc.


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## mjr (9 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> Remember not everyone can ,or will walk or cycle


I do remember that, which is why I think those who can't should get free season tickets (for the car park or for public transport) and help arranging carpooling (once this pandemic subsides). Those who won't should get a financial incentive to change, such as being charged for using their car needlessly.

Now please remember that we get what we encourage and free parking encourages single-person motoring and discourages walking and cycling, on top of the inadequate cycle parking and hairy eyeballs also discouraging cycling.

So, I ask again, how is encouraging more single-person motoring fair on those travelling more healthily? Why should workers who do the right thing, like you, be punished and discouraged like this?



fossyant said:


> Cyclists/walkers are a small minority - you aren't going to change folk. employers are trying to give staff an option to come into work safely, and work flexibly - early or late starts etc.


More flexible working is a good thing, but the NHS changes folk all the time and tries to change them even more, so why not try to make its staff travel healthier?


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## fossyant (9 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> So, I ask again, how is encouraging more single-person motoring fair on those travelling more healthily? Why should workers who do the right thing, like you, be punished and discouraged like this?



We are in a pandemic situation - people are getting overly stressed, not all decisions are right. My employers are reverting to charging for parking in the new year once things settle down. Active travel can also be an issue - who is going to want to share/re-use changing rooms at present - they won't get cleaned between use. I used to get changed in a toilet. 

Yeh it's not fair, but be glad that's your choice of transport - it's far safer than a bus.


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## bitsandbobs (9 Jul 2020)

"Eat out to help out"

Happy to oblige!


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## tom73 (9 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Heavens forbid that the national HEALTH service should support HEALTHier travel and not one-person-per-pollution-generator modes(!) I expect there are some who cannot reasonably travel to work except by single-occupancy car (too far/hazardous for e-bike, no public transport, no carpooling possible) who should be given free season tickets, but I find this insistence on blanket free staff car parking rather odd because it must contribute to the motoring death spiral seen at many NHS sites where the danger posed by the high proportion of car journeys deters those who could cycle/e-bike from doing so, both workers and patients, with obvious negative effects on public health.



Just get off the high horse for a minute many trusts already do promote cycling many staff all ready do cycle to work. Many trust also have public transport deals and the rest. Why don't you look at the real issues all of which the NHS has no control over and take it out on them. Like Public transport which most of the time just wont get many to work if you work shifts. Round here ones that go to the hospital go to one an hour after 6pm. Ward night shifts for most wards start at 8pm so if you miss the connecting bus you're late well late. Now being late in an office is one thing being late but missing the handover is another not forgetting leaving the ward short staffed. That's mon-fri weekend and banks holidays are even worse. Then many NHS staff are female early mornings or late evenings cycling home many won't / don't feel safe. That's mostly down to the way the way society treat women. The bus is out for many of them too as they don't run either. Many hospitals have no safe cycle routes to them either. 

Now many who cycle come what may are already active cyclists so none of this stuff is an issue. But many are not some who live local may cycle if they looked into it and the current situation has made some give it a go. Many people don't live local to the place of work anymore the car is the only practical way at the moment a hospital trust can't change that. They are not government, local council or now ever growing metro mayors many who are even worse than the rest. 

Then what about the many staff that work on more than one site some are many miles away from the main one. Mrs 73 in the past work at another site 70 mile miles (oneway) not exactly a quick bike ride is it? Or the many that do home visits it's not practical to do them on a bike. Don't say well they use to either as you won't believe the amount of kit many carry round now. Then what about the ones at the bottom of food chain who often have more than one job on basic pay or single parents who need to get home on time or as best they can. They can't afford to be late home or late for job number two. Of course all these issue are pre pandemic the current situation has just made it worse. Now even less can get the bus they are simply not running or not seen as safe 

Many would love to go to work by other way but they can't as the options are not practical. It's not black and white so take it out on the powers that be not the staff. Who really right now deserve a break not a lecture on the need to cycle. 
The real issue behind this story which clearly has past you by is even now after all this having saved the governments neck yet again.
They still are happy to kick them in the teeth yet again. Or is this really about I can't have it so why should they ?


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## mjr (9 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just get off the high horse for a minute many trusts already do promote cycling many staff all ready do cycle to work.


It seems like they cycle to local NHS sites despite the trusts, not because of them. I've not heard from workers at the local hospital who I often ride with about the trust doing much. There's a staff newsletter which includes cycling items but I believe that's a medic doing it voluntarily rather than someone doing it as part of their job. There's something about cycling info being on a staff intranet but of course, I don't know what's there and I hope you don't want me to do a FoIA request to find out just now.

As you know, I quite happily "take it out on" other bits of government and industry when it's their fault, but NHS trusts don't even do the bits they could do, on things like building works or travel instructions. Car parking and routes are always included, buses usually, cycling rarely - it's on only 1 of 4 local general hospital "how to find us" instructions and I've never seen it on building plans yet.

At the nearest hospital, despite it appearing as a destination on local cycle route signs, all cycleways stop at their boundary and anyone cycling in - staff or patient - has to give way to motorists and mix with them to the cycle parking. Which isn't signposted, of course. And the covered cycle parking was demolished a few years ago and the space given over to even more cars and I think officially there's now only those awful plastic "streetpod" Sheffield-stand-plus-wheelbender hybrids which damage many bikes with mudguards or even long-cage derailleurs, so now some bikes get locked to the posts under the downhill overhang of one of the buildings and the rest to fences around the site. All they really need to do now is make it so you can only enter or exit from the 60mph A-road bypass and only the truly stubborn deviants will persist in cycling there.

Now that's an exceptionally bad hospital, but even the best near me, Cambridge, is a flaming mess with bad signs and insufficient parking. Is there any hospital site in this country where cycling is a first-class (even equal-first) travel option?



tom73 said:


> Then what about the many staff that work on more than one site some are many miles away from the main one. Mrs 73 in the past work at another site 70 mile miles (oneway) not exactly a quick bike ride is it?


See my earlier comments about being generous with permits for the "can't"s. Working 70 miles away or doing many types of home visit should clearly qualify for a parking permit. But can you say why you feel that some people doing that sort of work means that even an on-site worker living a mile or less along the road should get free car parking? Because that's what blanket free parking means.

Actually, it's worse than that, because uncontrolled free parking means most hospital site car parks will be massively over-demanded (there simply isn't 10m² of car park per simultaneous worker on most sites, even ignoring the need for roadways between them) and anyone doing home visits is likely to end up parking in nearby streets and walking those same rubbish possibly-unsafe routes in!



> Many would love to go to work by other way but they can't as the options are not practical. It's not black and white so take it out on the powers that be not the staff. Who really right now deserve a break not a lecture on the need to cycle.
> The real issue behind this story which clearly has past you by is even now after all this having saved the governments neck yet again.
> They still are happy to kick them in the teeth yet again. Or is this really about I can't have it so why should they ?


Whether I have it depends how you look at it. I have free car parking at my home office, which is my usual location these days. I haven't always even had that, when I lived in town. I don't have free car parking at some work sites and do at others. Transport is something that gets factored into the work prices. So would you say that I am being kicked in the teeth sometimes?

When did not being able to store a 10m² vehicle for free become "kicked in the teeth" anyway? Given how little cycle parking there seems to be at NHS sites, have all the workers without space to store securely a 2m² bicycle been kicked in the teeth and then their nose smashed in for all these years?

(edited to reinsert a missing m)


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## mjr (9 Jul 2020)

Speaking of taking aim at those who deserve it, I missed this among some local planning fun, but the Covid-19 emergency cycling funding allocations were announced - and it seems like Norfolk has farked it up again, Lincs have farked it up worse and Cambridgeshire might be about to reclaim part of the old A10 between Ely and Littleport for cycling (and from there, Ten Mile Bank is an easy hour's cycling to National 11 into Norfolk).

My summary report is at https://www.klwnbug.co.uk/2020/07/09/covid-19-cycling-funding-cambs-good-norfolk-poor-lincs-worse/ and details about other councils are on a Google sheet by "Johnny Turner" at 
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSracK7jUMoSWhvumDCbB3kTaIBSWUk16NJ6hHkae-V2Vf5qDH-Mg1zgJQ3Vans7kQgiv444Mv6Oj9Z/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true


taken from https://www.facebook.com/groups/355411211909886?view=permalink&id=715435832574087&refid=46


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## qigong chimp (9 Jul 2020)

I work for a local authority. At HQ 600 - 700 parking spaces are provided free. DfT's 2008 Guide to Travel Planning gave a national average per-space cost to the provider of car parking of circa £400. A parking cash out is one solution, or positive incentive: give everyone £400 a year. People persisting in driving forfeit their £400 - parking remains at zero net cost to them so no grounds for whingeing. (yes I know, having no grounds for whingeing has never stopped drivers whingeing, but hey..) People travelling responsibly retain their £400 (or part thereof in the case of people car sharing) for recreational drugs and sex toys.

_*Pre-covid*_, the rate of single occupancy among vehicles arriving into this car park was 98.5%. I know this because I spent some hours sat at the gate counting. I have seen it with mine own eyes.

Crunching numbers for average national commute distance (10 miles by the way, not 70 and a not unreasonable cycling distance for the averagely able bodied on reassuringly safe infrastructure), average mpg, average Co2 yield per gallon of petrol burnt, business days a year, suggests this car park incentivises 3,250,000 car miles with a Co2 yield of circa 1,198 metric tonnes every year.

That's 136.7 kilos Co2 every hour of every day of the year. A figure well inwith estimates for the Co2 yield of a Jumbo jet at cruising speed. For a visual sense of my LA employers transport planning smarts picture a Jumbo Jet circling the battlements of HQ day and night forever, ceaselessly, never landing.

My LA employer declared a state of Climate Emergency last year. Phew, that's alright then.


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## gbb (9 Jul 2020)

derrick said:


> The country is full of morons. People think they are imune.


I posted maybe 2 weeks ago about the almost inevitable spread of the virus because of peoples stupidity (in that case the agency labour we get) at work) utter reckless stupidity and in some cases, a disbelief it's really something to be concerned about. If you take our agency staff of around 100 a day, left to their own devices they fail to socially distance at breaks and occasionally argue with staff that try to make them adhere.
Today, after another small batch of people at work have tested positive and gone off isolating, the company introduced mandatory face masks. I walked down the line 1 hour later and 50 % of them weren't wearing them properly, noses outside the mask and in some cases mouths exposed too. I approached their manager, he told them to wear them properly...1 hour later (roughly) they're back where they started, noses and mouths exposed.
Mind numbing stupidity. And it's not a minority at work, most of them just dont seem to care.
The law of averages says eventually we will get enough cases and someone is going to die.


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## mjr (9 Jul 2020)

gbb said:


> I approached their manager, he told them to wear them properly...1 hour later (roughly) they're back where they started, noses and mouths exposed.


So now the manager needs to do it again and probably start repeat offenders on whatever disciplinary pathway they have.



> Mind numbing stupidity. And it's not a minority at work, most of them just dont seem to care.


Including the managers, it seems.



> The law of averages says eventually we will get enough cases and someone is going to die.


I hope you're wrong, but...


----------



## MntnMan62 (9 Jul 2020)

gbb said:


> I posted maybe 2 weeks ago about the almost inevitable spread of the virus because of peoples stupidity (in that case the agency labour we get) at work) utter reckless stupidity and in some cases, a disbelief it's really something to be concerned about. If you take our agency staff of around 100 a day, left to their own devices they fail to socially distance at breaks and occasionally argue with staff that try to make them adhere.
> Today, after another small batch of people at work have tested positive and gone off isolating, the company introduced mandatory face masks. I walked down the line 1 hour later and 50 % of them weren't wearing them properly, noses outside the mask and in some cases mouths exposed too. I approached their manager, he told them to wear them properly...1 hour later (roughly) they're back where they started, noses and mouths exposed.
> Mind numbing stupidity. And it's not a minority at work, most of them just dont seem to care.
> The law of averages says eventually we will get enough cases and someone is going to die.



Sadly everything you say is true. This is exactly what I see here in the US. Denial there is any issue to begin with. After all, drumpf gives them license to think it's all just a hoax. Or that it will just magically disappear one day. It's truly unfortunate but the level of stupidity I see over here extends not to just the coronavirus but to many other issues, many of them created by the Idiot Number 1 in the white house. I've debated with friends about "why". They always ask the same question. "Why do you think they continue to support the guy?" There is only one answer at this point. Sheer stupidity.


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## qigong chimp (9 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Then what about the many staff that work on more than one site some are many miles away from the main one. Mrs 73 in the past work at another site 70 mile miles (oneway) not exactly a quick bike ride is it?


That's not sustainable, that's what's about it. Employers will have to carbon offset such ludicrous commuting practices, recruit more locally or offer re-location grants to staff they want who live so far away and can't use public transport.


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## Salty seadog (9 Jul 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> "Eat out to help out"
> 
> Happy to oblige!



Try that from two meters.


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## Slick (9 Jul 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> "Eat out to help out"
> 
> Happy to oblige!


I've been helping out for years now.


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## lane (9 Jul 2020)

Government advice avoid public transport where posible. In my view they should clearly assist in this and not reintroducing the charges until this is all over would be a very good thing. Apart from anything else someone catches it on the bus, gets infected, infects other NHS workers or cause them to self isolate, staff shortages and closures.


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## mjr (9 Jul 2020)

lane said:


> Government advice avoid public transport where posible. In my view they should clearly assist in this and not reintroducing the charges until this is all over would be a very good thing. Apart from anything else someone catches it on the bus, gets infected, infects other NHS workers or cause them to self isolate, staff shortages and closures.


Actually, they say "consider all other forms of transport, such as cycling and walking, before using public transport" and flooding sites with cars that don't need to be there isn't going to help walking or cycling, so surely it would assist that to reintroduce the charges ASAP?

It's almost like there are contradictory pressures here, isn't it?


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## marinyork (9 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Actually, they say "consider all other forms of transport, such as cycling and walking, before using public transport" and flooding sites with cars that don't need to be there isn't going to help walking or cycling, so surely it would assist that to reintroduce the charges ASAP?
> 
> It's almost like there are contradictory pressures here, isn't it?



It doesn't help that the advice on transport has been rewritten over a few iterations. What is there is now is good but the original messages stick in peoples' minds.

Here the council have closed roads and made gigantic cycle lanes. My only problem is they have done this to some of the wrong roads! Do it to other roads as well or swap some.


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## marinyork (9 Jul 2020)

Latest ONS figures for last week are very positive.


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## mjr (9 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Latest ONS figures for last week are very positive.


606 for the week? Lowest for 13 weeks and still too farking high. We are still dying so much more than most other European countries:


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## tom73 (9 Jul 2020)

The test and trace oneS are not getting much better though.
Not seeing any compliance numbers re self isolation and the untraced numbers are still not low enough.


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## midlife (9 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> The test and trace oneS are not getting much better though.
> Not seeing any compliance numbers re self isolation and the untraced numbers are still not low enough.



Did I read that the cost of track and trace is 10 billion?


----------



## marinyork (9 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> 606 for the week? Lowest for 13 weeks and still too farking high. We are still dying so much more than most other European countries:



Italy was 4 weeks ahead of us in terms of the virus. So nothing much in that.

Compared to France and Germany we are disappointing, but then pretty much the entire world is disappointing compared to Germany. 

Some of the local authority by local authority numbers are quite promising too which was what I was referring to. 

I do think they've made a bodge up of the stuff opening up later in July, not given enough notice. Those sorts of things may well have been finalised on those sorts of figures though.


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## lane (10 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Latest ONS figures for last week are very positive.



What exactly are you referring to?


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## marinyork (10 Jul 2020)

lane said:


> What exactly are you referring to?


----------



## marinyork (10 Jul 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...staurants-england-trade-half-pre-virus-levels

Interesting basic analysis of chains of pub and restaurants open the last week.


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## tom73 (10 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Did I read that the cost of track and trace is 10 billion?


Yes that right and it's still not working. It's part of the 31.9 billion NHS covid funding which also inc 15 billion on PPE. It's not clear if the faulty stock is part of that or if that's and extra cost not recored.


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## tom73 (10 Jul 2020)

Not a bad simple guide to face coverings 
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeand...and-19-other-essential-facts-about-face-masks


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## Venod (10 Jul 2020)

This came via Facebook, its a survey.

https://anaesthesia-audit.scot.nhs....RSDDGb7_EyI3619wDcoUmR3lkeSilzCPvlsyOKvS_TtpI


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## Julia9054 (10 Jul 2020)

So beauticians are now allowed to open. However facial treatments are still not allowed. So I still cannot get my eyebrows done despite being able to wear a mask. Beard trimming for men is allowed though. Can’t see how that can be done wearing a mask.


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## Venod (10 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Beard trimming for men is allowed though



To be fair its probably allowed for women too.


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## Julia9054 (10 Jul 2020)

Venod said:


> To be fair its probably allowed for women too.


Hilarious. Don’t really know why I bothered posting when I knew this would be the response


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## Venod (10 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Hilarious. Don’t really know why I bothered posting when I knew this would be the response



Your welcome.


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## tom73 (10 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> So beauticians are now allowed to open. However facial treatments are still not allowed. So I still cannot get my eyebrows done despite being able to wear a mask. Beard trimming for men is allowed though. Can’t see how that can be done wearing a mask.


Shaving and beard trimming are not allowed unless it's change yesterday without a word the same face to face advice covers men.

Edit beard trimming which can be gone from the side is now allowed but trimming which involves being face to face is still not allowed.


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## Julia9054 (10 Jul 2020)

Beard trimming will be allowed, but should be limited to ‘simple beard trims, thinning or removing bulk or length which can be done using either clippers or scissors’
Quote from this industry website https://www.nhbf.co.uk/news-and-blogs/news/beauty-industry-to-open-in-england-with-restrictions/


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## qigong chimp (10 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Beard trimming will be allowed, but should be limited to ‘simple beard trims, thinning or removing bulk or length *which can be done using either clippers or scissors*’


As opposed to with the barber's teeth?


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## marinyork (10 Jul 2020)

ONS on attitudes to eating out and other things

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53363032


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## Julia9054 (10 Jul 2020)

Risking going to Harrogate for pizza tomorrow night. Am going on the bus to get there too!


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## Low Gear Guy (10 Jul 2020)

Is it just me that is confused by the rules? There is guidance which is more onerous than the regulations and both of these have differences within the UK.
It seems that it is safe for pubs to reopen but not pubs and they advise against using the bus while encouraging the use of gyms. Best of all it is compulsory to wear a face covering on the Isle of Wight ferry even if sat on the outside deck.


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## randynewmanscat (10 Jul 2020)

Its been a few weeks since I looked at the gouv.fr covid dashboard to see how our region is faring healthwise and as of today it looks good one month after most things being reopened. The bars opened on 2nd of June and many tourism sites by second week in June.
The administrative region is Nouvelle Aquitaine, population 5.9 million in a land area of 32,000 sq miles, similar to Scotland on both counts. The largest population centre is Bordeaux (1.1 million), Glasgow and Edinburgh combined is about the same. Both areas have large urban conurbations and sparsely populated countryside, taking out social and travel demographics the two are similar.
On the 1st of June a total of 395 dead, 36 in ICU, 263 other hospital stay, 1,928 gone home. On the 9th of July 421 dead, 9 in ICU, 56 other hospital stay and 2,200 gone home.
I make the comparison with Scotland solely on population, centres of population and land area. What I was looking for was an increase in cases after the relaxation of the various confinement regulations, the schools, bars, sports places, shops and visitor attractions. I have been out doing the things I used to do, meetings, some work, leisure activities in towns, cities and countryside and of course bars because I like the social life there. Places are no doubt quieter but I have seen many people going about their usual business and the numbers say that so far there has been no increase in cases here since the start of June when the pause was lifted.
Although this part of France was relatively unscathed by the horror that gripped the north east Scots have every reason to believe that things will go well until the autumn at least. For the Francophile cyclists among you who yearn for sunshine, quiet roads and foreign muck to eat, anywhere in central and south western France looks fairly safe at the moment.


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## randynewmanscat (10 Jul 2020)

qigong chimp said:


> As opposed to with the barber's teeth?


No, with his B&D hedge trimmer at a distance.


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## Mo1959 (10 Jul 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Is it just me that is confused by the rules? There is guidance which is more onerous than the regulations and both of these have differences within the UK.
> It seems that it is safe for pubs to reopen but not pubs and they advise against using the bus while encouraging the use of gyms. Best of all it is compulsory to wear a face covering on the Isle of Wight ferry even if sat on the outside deck.


I’m finding it all a bit contradictory too. I now have to wear a face covering for a quick run through the supermarket, following the one way system and social distancing, yet next week I can go and sit in a restaurant or pub for a few hours.


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## lane (10 Jul 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Is it just me that is confused by the rules? There is guidance which is more onerous than the regulations and both of these have differences within the UK.
> It seems that it is safe for pubs to reopen but not pubs and they advise against using the bus while encouraging the use of gyms. Best of all it is compulsory to wear a face covering on the Isle of Wight ferry even if sat on the outside deck.



Don't worry about the overly complicated and contradictory guidance just ignore it. I can't imagine many people are trying to keep up to date or follow it now. Posted previously but my children MUST wear a mask on the bus to school but MUST NOT wear it in school. Just forget about it - it is pointless.


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## Joey Shabadoo (10 Jul 2020)

qigong chimp said:


> As opposed to with the barber's teeth?


or fire

View: https://youtu.be/EGB5T_apzrs


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## marinyork (10 Jul 2020)

lane said:


> Don't worry about the overly complicated and contradictory guidance just ignore it. I can't imagine many people are trying to keep up to date or follow it now. Posted previously but my children MUST wear a mask on the bus to school but MUST NOT wear it in school. Just forget about it - it is pointless.



Bus driver and other transport have been found to be very high risk occupations (unlike you or I fortunately and that's a blessing), so protection is needed, besides the high level of mixing and most transport are closed, small confined environments with sometimes with poor ventilation. 

Schools on the other hand, teacher has been shown to be a much lower risk occupation and continuous mixing of new households not already involved in mixing in schools is low. Schools also have a much more sophisticated testing regime available to them than most high risk occupations (that's changing and being worked on). You have it the wrong way round. Instead of worrying about schools you should be jumping up and down in anger asking for MORE protections for some high risk occupations like security guard and bus driver.

Even if masks were mandated inside in various environments, schools would be one of the last places to have them mandated as it's believed to be a much lower risk.

You of course think that's complete nonsense, but you do know every single bit of that. The tabloid newspapers and Boris continuously going on about pubs, schools and jolly holidays continues to perpetuate these myths and stoke the worries.

As in all things with such a widespread virus, things have to be simplified. It's not really pointless, you are protecting the bus driver/train/other.


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## marinyork (10 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Risking going to Harrogate for pizza tomorrow night. Am going on the bus to get there too!



You may find it quiet and very enjoyable I hope, if the ONS survey is indicative.


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## mjr (10 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Risking going to Harrogate for pizza tomorrow night. Am going on the bus to get there too!


On the bus Knaresborough to Harrogate makes me wonder: how's the bike?


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## mjr (10 Jul 2020)

lane said:


> Don't worry about the overly complicated and contradictory guidance just ignore it. I can't imagine many people are trying to keep up to date or follow it now. Posted previously but my children MUST wear a mask on the bus to school but MUST NOT wear it in school. Just forget about it - it is pointless.


Yes, just follow the WHO guidance. The gov.UK stuff is confusing but taking an occasional look at it makes you understand why so many business managers are crying: they have to follow that shoot else the beadle comes to shut them down. The best guideline stupidity I've seen so far was a couple of takeaways made to move their picnic tables further away from the shop, else it wouldn't be classed as takeaway and thereby closed down - and one of those was Sandringham Visitor Centre, where the removal of the tables in the area outside the cafe meant people now had a longer walk along a busy path to the woodland picnic area, during which they're much more likely to spill hot drinks on themselves or others. Net effect of that was probably harm to public health! At another place, it was suggested that the owners should replace metal (easy to wipe or wash, quick-drying) tables and chairs with soft fabric cushions which obviously weren't going to get cleaned during the day.  I really feel sorry for those trying to comply with all this while making ends meet at the minute, mostly in much more difficult locations than Sandringham.


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## marinyork (10 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Yes, just follow the WHO guidance. The gov.UK stuff is confusing but taking an occasional look at it makes you understand why so many business managers are crying: they have to follow that shoot else the beadle comes to shut them down. The best guideline stupidity I've seen so far was a couple of takeaways made to move their picnic tables further away from the shop, else it wouldn't be classed as takeaway and thereby closed down - and one of those was Sandringham Visitor Centre, where the removal of the tables in the area outside the cafe meant people now had a longer walk along a busy path to the woodland picnic area, during which they're much more likely to spill hot drinks on themselves or others. Net effect of that was probably harm to public health! At another place, it was suggested that the owners should replace metal (easy to wipe or wash, quick-drying) tables and chairs with soft fabric cushions which obviously weren't going to get cleaned during the day.  I really feel sorry for those trying to comply with all this while making ends meet at the minute, mostly in much more difficult locations than Sandringham.



Not much notice for the tranche of things announced today they can open up soon. Probably the UK government jumping/waiting on those ONS figures. 

Somewhere I walk past seems to have been told to move it's tables closer to the cafe and now taking numbers.


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## Rezillo (10 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Beard trimming will be allowed, but should be limited to ‘simple beard trims, thinning or removing bulk or length which can be done using either clippers or scissors’
> Quote from this industry website https://www.nhbf.co.uk/news-and-blogs/news/beauty-industry-to-open-in-england-with-restrictions/



Anyone who can't trim their own beard at home by themselves is not worthy of having one, imho. 

I'm also been doing my own hair - apart from Mrs R trimming round ears and neckline, it's so easy that I wish I'd been doing it years ago. Given that I find most modern mens hairstyles ridiculous, that might be easier for me than others


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## tom73 (10 Jul 2020)

Much of the confusion is down to mixed messages and unclear ones. 
The other main issue which is key is Ineffective public awareness of methods of transmission.
Studies of other counties clearly show both are key to pubic understanding and compliance. 
Too much of the ”rules“ for business have been left to industry bodies to come up with. 
As long as they are within government “guidelines“ they get the ok for government. They have been more or less free to read them as they see fit.


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## lane (10 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Bus driver and other transport have been found to be very high risk occupations (unlike you or I fortunately and that's a blessing), so protection is needed, besides the high level of mixing and most transport are closed, small confined environments with sometimes with poor ventilation.
> 
> Schools on the other hand, teacher has been shown to be a much lower risk occupation and continuous mixing of new households not already involved in mixing in schools is low. Schools also have a much more sophisticated testing regime available to them than most high risk occupations (that's changing and being worked on). You have it the wrong way round. Instead of worrying about schools you should be jumping up and down in anger asking for MORE protections for some high risk occupations like security guard and bus driver.
> 
> ...



I would be interested to understand why the bus driver is at high risk but not the teacher. Spending all day in a poorly ventilated classroom (in many cases) with 30 children and then mixing with potentially 150 different children in a day and maybe many more in the course of a week. What is the basis of the science which says one is low risk and the other high risk?

By the way I am not being flippant about the regulations - I think the time has come when they are a bit meaningless and I prefer to risk assess things myself - even though I might be less informed than the SAGE committee. However I am quite risk adverse where the virus is concerned.


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## lane (10 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Much of the confusion is down to mixed messages and unclear ones.
> The other main issue which is key is Ineffective public awareness of methods of transmission.
> Studies of other counties clearly show both are key to pubic understanding and compliance.
> Too much of the ”rules“ for business have been left to industry bodies to come up with.
> As long as they are within government “guidelines“ they get the ok for government. They have been more or less free to read them as they see fit.



In terms of methods of transmission the scientists can't agree on that one!


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## tom73 (10 Jul 2020)

lane said:


> In terms of methods of transmission the scientists can't agree on that one!


A good few do though


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## Unkraut (10 Jul 2020)

A fairly long, but interesting read:

https://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2020/07/09/a-conversation-with-john-ioannidis/

_I view “lockdown” as a drug with dangerous side effects when its use is prolonged. 

Again, we face a communication challenge – how do we convey the severity of a virus which is both more dangerous and less dangerous than the flu? 

I consider that people who criticize me with valid scientific arguments are my greatest benefactors. But the outrage propagated by social media is a force of its own, and destroys any intelligent discourse, civil or uncivil. _


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## Julia9054 (10 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> On the bus Knaresborough to Harrogate makes me wonder: how's the bike?


It doesn't work on the way back when the legs have beer in them


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## Rocky (10 Jul 2020)

Unkraut said:


> A fairly long, but interesting read:
> 
> https://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2020/07/09/a-conversation-with-john-ioannidis/
> 
> ...


Except that John Ioannidis and his colleagues say one thing and do the exact opposite (as my wife has found when challenging them on the evidence)!!


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## Salty seadog (10 Jul 2020)

lane said:


> I would be interested to understand why the bus driver is at high risk but not the teacher. Spending all day in a poorly ventilated classroom (in many cases) with 30 children and then mixing with potentially 150 different children in a day and maybe many more in the course of a week. What is the basis of the science which says one is low risk and the other high risk?



It's political science. Get the kids in school with no social distancing or mitigating practices 'cos kids don't get the virus .
This frees up the parents to go back to work and get paying tax again. Its just childcare. 

The teachers don't matter. 
My dad's a teacher and I'm not looking forward to him going back.


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## mjr (10 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> It doesn't work on the way back when the legs have beer in them


Oooh, I wouldn't want a bike like that!


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## tom73 (10 Jul 2020)

if only every shop displayed this

View: https://twitter.com/tormcycling/status/1281516789625688064?s=20


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## Rezillo (10 Jul 2020)

Comparing SARS-CoV-2 with SARS-CoV and influenza pandemics:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30484-9/fulltext

Table 3, if I've read it correctly, is an agglomeration of data from cities with historic data to enable comparisons to be made with earlier outbreaks, rather than giving absolute worldwide or regional figures.

In broad terms, twice as many Covid-19 deaths as in the 1957 flu pandemic, four times as many as the 1969 flu pandemic and a quarter of the 1918 flu pandemic. And most of those, imho, in the space of a few weeks in spring rather than a whole winter season.

I particularly liked this quote:

"A mortality study in 17 cities in the USA during the 1918 influenza pandemic found that the cities which implemented mitigation strategies early on had a delayed, flatter epidemic curve, with a 50% lower peak mortality, and a 20% lower overall mortality".

Who said history is bunk?


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## lane (10 Jul 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Comparing SARS-CoV-2 with SARS-CoV and influenza pandemics:
> 
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30484-9/fulltext
> 
> ...



Surely the thing here is all these additional deaths in the UK, are after we have had an unprecedented lock down. We don't do that for the flu.


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## Goggs (10 Jul 2020)

lane said:


> Surely the thing here is all these additional deaths in the UK, are after we have had an unprecedented lock down. We don't do that for the flu.


You didn't have a lock-down, not by any stretch of the imagination.


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## Rezillo (10 Jul 2020)

lane said:


> Surely the thing here is all these additional deaths in the UK, are after we have had an unprecedented lock down. We don't do that for the flu.



It's not an article based on UK stats - it's just establishing a death rate comparison of covid-19 with other pandemics using figures from cities worldwide. 

Besides, lockdown is intended to prevent health care services collapsing by trying to spread out the onset of cases over a longer time scale. As the article says, the population risk of admission to intensive care is five to six times higher in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 than in those with the fairly mild 2009 influenza pandemic. Combine that with a highly compressed timescale for Covid-19 case onset compared to a winter flu season and it is a recipe for disaster. With flu, the cases are spread over a season and a far higher proportion of cases die at home. It puts health services under pressure but without a collapse.

Lockdown hasn't been about eliminating the disease - most of the population is still vulnerable. We're roughly back to where we were in February but with people taking their own distancing measures and better tracing, there is some hope of it not reaching an exponential phase again. The argument remains as to how many deaths could have been avoided by earlier lockdown, which will probably rage for years to come.


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## randynewmanscat (10 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> It doesn't work on the way back when the legs have beer in them


The bike is fine, you need to drink more beer. It is well documented with peer reviewed science that beer directly causes humans to be capable of herculean efforts.


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## SkipdiverJohn (10 Jul 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Besides, lockdown is intended to prevent health care services collapsing by trying to spread out the onset of cases over a longer time scale.......
> Lockdown hasn't been about eliminating the disease - most of the population is still vulnerable. We're roughly back to where we were in February but with people taking their own distancing measures and better tracing, there is some hope of it not reaching an exponential phase again.



i reckon the lockdown will prove to be totally pointless, and a Swedish-style "just be sensible" advice message would achieve a similar outcome without the economic carnage. Trying to suppress the virus for months is likely just to result in a disastrously deadly winter flu + coronavirus 2nd wave season instead. Once the NHS critical care capacity had been boosted, they would have been better off just letting the virus loose so millions of the healthy population could get it and be done with. I had a nasty dose of the measles when I was a youngster, made me properly ill. I've never caught it again since though. If I worked in a high risk public contact job I would rather catch the coronavirus early on and get it over with, knowing that afterwards you can forget about it.


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## Joey Shabadoo (10 Jul 2020)

This is one of those times when the BBC needs it's arse kicked. There's no need for "balanced" reporting about masks where you give equal time to Sharon on Facebook.


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## Tanis8472 (10 Jul 2020)

I see you


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## mjr (10 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> i reckon the lockdown will prove to be totally pointless, and a Swedish-style "just be sensible" advice message would achieve a similar outcome without the economic carnage.


The Sweden that's the only European country with a higher per capita current death rate than the UK?


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## DaveReading (10 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I had a nasty dose of the measles when I was a youngster, made me properly ill. I've never caught it again since though.



You do realise that that's nowhere close to being evidence that catching Covid once confers immunity ?


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## SkipdiverJohn (10 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> The Sweden that's the only European country with a higher per capita current death rate than the UK?



That'll be the Sweden that will suffer minimally relatively speaking from the virus and will recover the most quickly from it, whilst most of the EU are still trying to figure out a way of getting someone else to bankroll their coronavirus rescue economic plan. Unfortunately for them, the UK has now Brexited, so they will be paying for their own shoot show for a change, and the Frugal Four won't be rolling over.


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## lane (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> i reckon the lockdown will prove to be totally pointless, and a Swedish-style "just be sensible" advice message would achieve a similar outcome without the economic carnage. Trying to suppress the virus for months is likely just to result in a disastrously deadly winter flu + coronavirus 2nd wave season instead. Once the NHS critical care capacity had been boosted, they would have been better off just letting the virus loose so millions of the healthy population could get it and be done with. I had a nasty dose of the measles when I was a youngster, made me properly ill. I've never caught it again since though. If I worked in a high risk public contact job I would rather catch the coronavirus early on and get it over with, knowing that afterwards you can forget about it.



Problem with what you suggest is that it was, and is, not possible.


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## mjr (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> That'll be the Sweden that will suffer minimally relatively speaking from the virus and will recover the most quickly from it, whilst most of the EU are still trying to figure out a way of getting someone else to bankroll their coronavirus rescue economic plan. Unfortunately for them, the UK has now Brexited, so they will be paying for their own shoot show for a change, and the Frugal Four won't be rolling over.


That's some new and exciting meaning of minimal suffering, killing thousands unnecessarily. The long term economic damage of that will probably far outweigh the short term benefit.

And how can the frugal four refuse anything? I thought you said EU member states had no option other than to do what they're told? Are you saying that's wrong and the UK ended up a net contributor because its government agreed to be?


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## Johnno260 (11 Jul 2020)

The news that the government is urging home workers back to work, I’m not happy about, my firm will see this as a green light and to be honest I’m not comfortable with it.

My offices are shared with 3 other companies, who my firm have no control over.

Fully waiting on the email saying be at the office or find a new job, as that’s what we were told when home working was a suggestion 3 months ago.

Also childcare is still an issue as not all the nurseries are open and before/after school clubs aren’t running, this will cause some problems.


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## tom73 (11 Jul 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> The news that the government is urging home workers back to work, I’m not happy about, my firm will see this as a green light and to be honest I’m not comfortable with it.
> 
> My offices are shared with 3 other companies, who my firm have no control over.
> 
> ...



Yep here we go again with mixed messages yet again and what a great way to go about giving out a change in policy via facebook q and a. 
The whole situation is now way out of control which in lockdown was one thing but now in all out go and get back to normal mode. 
It's a total balls up which will sadly cost many more lives and end up costing even more money. The rate at which placers have just let things go even in the last few days is alarming. It's hard to find anyone even remotely interested about keeping safe. Government is hell bent on opening the economy at all cost leaving what little science they did bother to read. Behind as they all make a mad rush to "dine out to help out" and lost one in pub get's the drinks in. With the right measures in place and the right messages it is possible to get out of this but this dog's dinner of a situation has left that dead in water.


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## SkipdiverJohn (11 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> The whole situation is now way out of control which in lockdown was one thing but now in all out go and get back to normal mode.
> It's a total balls up which will sadly cost many more lives and end up costing even more money. The rate at which placers have just let things go even in the last few days is alarming. It's hard to find anyone even remotely interested about keeping safe.



Lockdown compliance was never going to hold up for an extended time. The trouble is that people like you who believe in all this lockdown nonsense expect everybody else to also believe in it and comply with it too - but in the real world it ain't gonna happen as you are now starting to realise.
A good proportion of the population are heartily sick of the lockdown, really don't give a toss about the virus, and are fully intent on going back to working and socialising as normal. You won't agree with that stance, but you're going to have to deal with it, because that's the reality of the situation.
I've noticed a significant reduction in mask wearing in public over the last week or two. The last time I walked through a busy high street a couple of days ago I did a mask count, and only about 1 in 8 shoppers were wearing them. A month or two ago it was about 1 in 5. Even on buses, where masks are supposedly mandated, at least a quarter of passengers aren't wearing them, and a lot more are deliberately mis-wearing them so they are only really there for show.


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## gbb (11 Jul 2020)

And as a further indicator of some peoples stupidity and stubborness, the guy that was tasked with keeping the agency staff socially distanced and complying with the one way system at work...has had his car keyed...twice.
We have apparently had 18 cases over a period at work....says it all. Stupid stupid people I'm beginning to lose respect for.


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## SkipdiverJohn (11 Jul 2020)

gbb said:


> And as a further indicator of some peoples stupidity and stubborness, the guy that was tasked with keeping the agency staff socially distanced and complying with the one way system at work...has had his car keyed...twice.



Why are you even surprised at this? Try bossing people around like naughty kids and you'll get that sort of reaction. I was talking to some Poles the other day, commented on the social distancing - or the lack of. They just started laughing and gesticulating with their hands and making comments to the effect of bollox to the virus, we don't care!


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## Joey Shabadoo (11 Jul 2020)

View: https://youtu.be/tldGgGFe194


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## PeteXXX (11 Jul 2020)

A lot of the Eastern Europeans, at my place of work, are going back to shaking hands again.
I used to, as I get on well with them, but not now..


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## stowie (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Lockdown compliance was never going to hold up for an extended time. The trouble is that people like you who believe in all this lockdown nonsense expect everybody else to also believe in it and comply with it too - but in the real world it ain't gonna happen as you are now starting to realise.



Lockdown nonsense. FFS. How do you think that the infection curve and R rate was reversed during lockdown? The virus elves? In "the real world" when there is no vaccine or effective treatment, isolating the virus is the only way to stop it or slow it. Unless you are happy with most of the population getting it and significant numbers of people dying or having long-term after effects.



SkipdiverJohn said:


> A good proportion of the population are *heartily sick of the lockdown*, really don't give a toss about the virus, and are fully intent on going back to working and socialising as normal. You won't agree with that stance, but you're going to have to deal with it, because that's the reality of the situation.



I'll tell you what would make them more sick than lockdown - COVID19. Humans have an appalling ability at being able to assess risk. My next-door neighbour got COVID early during the lockdown. He is late 30's and fit. He was very ill for a month and is still in recovery phase. My uncle-in-law got COVID more recently. He wasn't so lucky. He spent 2 weeks in ICU on a ventilator and now is on dialysis because it caused his kidneys to pack up. He is in his 70's but had no underlying health conditions. Those ignoring all the rules - like the anti-vaxxers - are using the compliance of others to keep themselves safe.


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## lane (11 Jul 2020)

Goggs said:


> You didn't have a lock-down, not by any stretch of the imagination.



Not really a relevant response, albeit strictly speaking true. Whatever you wish to call it, we do not do it for the flu which i the relevant thing. Clearly without deaths would be many times higher than the flu.


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## Rocky (11 Jul 2020)

stowie said:


> Lockdown nonsense. FFS. How do you think that the infection curve and R rate was reversed during lockdown? The virus elves? In "the real world" when there is no vaccine or effective treatment, isolating the virus is the only way to stop it or slow it. Unless you are happy with most of the population getting it and significant numbers of people dying or having long-term after effects.
> 
> 
> 
> I'll tell you what would make them more sick than lockdown - COVID19. Humans have an appalling ability at being able to assess risk. My next-door neighbour got COVID early during the lockdown. He is late 30's and fit. He was very ill for a month and is still in recovery phase. My uncle-in-law got COVID more recently. He wasn't so lucky. He spent 2 weeks in ICU on a ventilator and now is on dialysis because it caused his kidneys to pack up. He is in his 70's but had no underlying health conditions. Those ignoring all the rules - like the anti-vaxxers - are using the compliance of others to keep themselves safe.


Spot on. I agree 100%.

I’ve been reading about the numbers of young people in the US who have died of Covid. This is not just a disease of the ill or elderly.

I have now had two friends die of Covid. I find it odd that some people try and trivialise it. Dying, alone, in a hospital ward of interstitial pneumonia is about one of the worse deaths I can think of.


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## classic33 (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Lockdown compliance was never going to hold up for an extended time. The trouble is that people like you who believe in all this lockdown nonsense expect everybody else to also believe in it and comply with it too - but in the real world it ain't gonna happen as you are now starting to realise.
> A good proportion of the population are heartily sick of the lockdown, really don't give a toss about the virus, and are fully intent on going back to working and socialising as normal. You won't agree with that stance, but you're going to have to deal with it, because that's the reality of the situation.
> I've noticed a significant reduction in mask wearing in public over the last week or two. The last time I walked through a busy high street a couple of days ago I did a mask count, and only about 1 in 8 shoppers were wearing them. A month or two ago it was about 1 in 5. Even on buses, where masks are supposedly mandated, at least a quarter of passengers aren't wearing them, and a lot more are deliberately mis-wearing them so they are only really there for show.


I can't wait for this to be over, things getting back to "normal"*. Then *maybe* the routine hospital appointments can start up again. Specialists on five different hospitals, all requiring public transport to get to. I might be able to "pick up, where I left off" on three conditions that could finish me off quicker than this current virus. They could also do it a hell of a lot slower. So why should I be bothered by this virus!

Maybe even consider getting an appointment at the doctors. But I'm aware that until this is sorted, those things will never happen. As I've already found out, the masks that most seem to be wearing are a hazard(I ended up chewing one. They don't taste nice, what's in them?) for myself. The metal strips in some damage the inside of the mouth.

With regards their use on public transport, employees cannot make a person wear one. That's the job of the police. Frontline transport staff are getting it from both sides. They've to enforce the rules whilst keeping the services running and passengers happy.

The new normal may not be one you're willing to accept, but you'll have to get used to it. I accepted, and have when able kept to the rules in place. Despite some being to my detriment. You may find you don't like the new normal, what will you do then?

You think it's been bad here, take a look at the rules in some of the countries on our borders.


*Definition required.


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## SkipdiverJohn (11 Jul 2020)

lane said:


> Clearly without deaths would be many times higher than the flu.



All the lockdown will achieve is to change the cause of death over the next couple of years. OK, less people will die from the virus, but a whole load of others will die as a result of not getting medical attention for other dangerous conditions because they have been discouraged from visiting the doctor and non-coronavirus related medicine has essentially been put on hold to a large extent. What would you rather die of; the virus, cancer, diabetes, or heart disease? Non-coronavirus mortality will strike back with a vengeance in the months and years to come, since so much attention has been focused on the virus to the exclusion of pretty much everything else. All the other dangerous illnesses haven't declared a truce whilst the virus is running, they are all still there too.


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## Rocky (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> All the lockdown will achieve is to change the cause of death over the next couple of years. OK, less people will die from the virus, but a whole load of others will die as a result of not getting medical attention for other dangerous conditions because they have been discouraged from visiting the doctor and non-coronavirus related medicine has essentially been put on hold to a large extent. What would you rather die of; the virus, cancer, diabetes, or heart disease? Non-coronavirus mortality will strike back with a vengeance in the months and years to come, since so much attention has been focused on the virus to the exclusion of pretty much everything else. All the other dangerous illnesses haven't declared a truce whilst the virus is running, they are all still there too.


Vaccine......

BTW have you seen how the hospitals have been over run in the southern US? You can't ignore it as a virus.


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## Tanis8472 (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> All the lockdown will achieve is to change the cause of death over the next couple of years. OK, less people will die from the virus, but a whole load of others will die as a result of not getting medical attention for other dangerous conditions because they have been discouraged from visiting the doctor and non-coronavirus related medicine has essentially been put on hold to a large extent. What would you rather die of; the virus, cancer, diabetes, or heart disease? Non-coronavirus mortality will strike back with a vengeance in the months and years to come, since so much attention has been focused on the virus to the exclusion of pretty much everything else. All the other dangerous illnesses haven't declared a truce whilst the virus is running, they are all still there too.


They're not farking highly contagious


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## Rocky (11 Jul 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> They're not farking highly contagious


I agree 100%.

Plus it's pretty insulting to our front line staff to suggest that they are ignoring all other health conditions throughout this pandemic. It's simply not true. Oncology services are still running. A&E is still running. Diabetes services are still running. General practice is still running. The service delivery is a little different but patients are still being seen.


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## qigong chimp (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Why are you even surprised at this? Try bossing people around like naughty kids *From some people asked to act in the common interest* and you'll get that sort of reaction.


I think the expression is "Fixed that for you."


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## RoadRider400 (11 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Government is hell bent on opening the economy at all cost leaving what little science they did bother to read



I think you need to give some appreciation that the economy is important. Its now summer and the virus transmission should be controllable with some measures. If you keep tanking the economy the government will have to keep printing money. So follows hyperinflation and we are all screwed. I think the high risk need to keep shielding and those people need some financial help from the government. The rest of us need to be back working in offices if so needed with a national whistleblowing scheme where employees can report employers for not incorporating distancing and such safety measures.


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## SkipdiverJohn (11 Jul 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Vaccine......



That could be a full year away from being an effective solution. What do you want to do until then, put the whole world into suspended animation for a year whilst the vaccine researchers get their act together? Totally unrealistic policy, which has never been attempted in previous epidemics. Trying to keep known infected people away from everyone else until they recover to slow the rate of spread is sensible, bringing everything to a complete standstill for a long period just in case some of those not yet infected might get it is just not a viable option.


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## Rocky (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> That could be a full year away from being an effective solution. What do you want to do until then, put the whole world into suspended animation for a year whilst the vaccine researchers get their act together? Totally unrealistic policy, which has never been attempted in previous epidemics. Trying to keep known infected people away from everyone else until they recover to slow the rate of spread is sensible, bringing everything to a complete standstill for a long period just in case some of those not yet infected might get it is just not a viable option.


You simply don't understand how this pandemic works. If you ignore it or end lockdown too early you get what's happening in the states. People will die unnecessarily (they are in the US). It won't save the economy - ill people can't work, hospitals will close (remember Hillingdon Hospital A&E??), tourism will crash (have you seen how few places that will accept US citizens without quarantine?).

You set up a false dichotomy. It's not lockdown vs keeping the economy afloat.....you cannot ignore the virus. It's there and has to be dealt with or else it'll take the economy down and kill huge numbers unnecessarily.


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## tom73 (11 Jul 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> I agree 100%.
> 
> Plus it's pretty insulting to our front line staff to suggest that they are ignoring all other health conditions throughout this pandemic. It's simply not true. Oncology services are still running. A&E is still running. Diabetes services are still running. General practice is still running. The service delivery is a little different but patients are still being seen.



Spot on it is still all going off be it in different ways and in settings away from hospitals some things may take longer but you still get seen.
Only real area effected has been elective surgery so don't expect a new hip anytime soon unless you're a trama case that is. 
To believe ever part of the hospital was given over to covid is not something that stacks up after all babies still got born though all this. 
The drop of in A and E has a lot to do with people who truncates up with any and every thing who really should never get though door thinking twice about it.


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## SkipdiverJohn (11 Jul 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> It won't save the economy - ill people can't work, hospitals will close (remember Hillingdon Hospital A&E??), tourism will crash (have you seen how few places that will accept US citizens without quarantine?).
> 
> You set up a false dichotomy. It's not lockdown vs keeping the economy afloat.....you cannot ignore the virus. It's there and has to be dealt with or else it'll take the economy down and kill huge numbers unnecessarily.



Depending on what source you go by, anything up to 70% of those catching the coronavirus do not even have any symptoms. Therefore those people are not actually ill, and are not prevented from functioning normally whilst infected. Of the remaining percentage who do get symptoms, a high proportion of those experience nothing worse than a heavy cold. That might put them out of action for a week. The number of people who get really ill, are hospitalised, or even die from the virus is only a tiny minority of the total, but these are the stats that the media obsesses about. In the developed world that has advanced medical facilities, the real mortality rate is almost certainly under half a percent of the true infected numbers, if you include those not having symptoms. To suggest that the virus will gave a devastating effect on large parts of the population is simply scaremongering from a totally risk-averse standpoint. The virus can be nasty and it can be fatal, but in the majority of cases it is neither of those things.


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## Rocky (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Depending on what source you go by, anything up to 70% of those catching the coronavirus do not even have any symptoms. Therefore those people are not actually ill, and are not prevented from functioning normally whilst infected. Of the remaining percentage who do get symptoms, a high proportion of those experience nothing worse than a heavy cold. That might put them out of action for a week. The number of people who get really ill, are hospitalised, or even die from the virus is only a tiny minority of the total, but these are the stats that the media obsesses about. In the developed world that has advanced medical facilities, the real mortality rate is almost certainly under half a percent of the true infected numbers, if you include those not having symptoms. To suggest that the virus will gave a devastating effect on large parts of the population is simply scaremongering from a totally risk-averse standpoint. The virus can be nasty and it can be fatal, but in the majority of cases it is neither of those things.


I suggest you look at what is happening in the southern US. It’s real. It’s not project fear. It may not fit with your narrative but hey ho.


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## Andy in Germany (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> a whole load of* others will die as a result of not getting medical attention* for other dangerous conditions because they have been discouraged from visiting the doctor and *non-coronavirus related medicine has essentially been put on hold to a large extent*.



Now why would that be, do we think, especially as a few years back the UK was supposed to be the best prepared country for a pandemic? Could it perchance be less because of a pandemic that had been predicted on several occasions and more to do with ten years of starving the UK Health Service of funds while shovelling large amounts of cash off to private companies who turned out to be unable to fulfil their obligations?


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## tom73 (11 Jul 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> I think you need to give some appreciation that the economy is important. Its now summer and the virus transmission should be controllable with some measures. If you keep tanking the economy the government will have to keep printing money. So follows hyperinflation and we are all screwed. I think the high risk need to keep shielding and those people need some financial help from the government. The rest of us need to be back working in offices if so needed with a national whistleblowing scheme where employees can report employers for not incorporating distancing and such safety measures.



That's the point it's not and the measures are still not good enough. Health and the economy are not at different ends. We can have both acting together. It's not a stand off between the two or take it or leave how ever hard the government are trying to make it. The longer we stay in this the worse it will get for them both. I'm happy for the economy to open up what it should look like and how it should be rebalanced, which part's are in need help is a very a different debate. We can open things up with the right measures in place following the right science together with the right public health information. The problem is the government and most of the Westminster bubble don't understand even now is this situation is not about being popular the virus is not bothered about any of that. But it's about doing what's right and going it quickly by going that the economy and public health can be protected. 

As for keeping the high risk shielding it depends what the government want class as high risk. As they move that around when it suits what ever other risk factors you may have it's clear that as with other diseases. The one thing you don't want to be with Covid around is poor so that put plenty of the population higher up the risk tree. If we shield them till this is over well the economy will be truly bust.


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## Joey Shabadoo (11 Jul 2020)

Very few people in the local shopping mall wearing masks today according to my neighbour. She overheard disapproving tuts and "Oh, she's one of *them*" being said in her direction from people not wearing masks like her. Folk on the neighbourhood app saying the junkies are aggressively begging and coughing on people who don't give them money.


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## classic33 (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> All the lockdown will achieve is to change the cause of death over the next couple of years. OK, less people will die from the virus, but a whole load of others will die as a result of not getting medical attention for other dangerous conditions because they have been discouraged from visiting the doctor and non-coronavirus related medicine has essentially been put on hold to a large extent. What would you rather die of; the virus, *cancer, diabetes, or heart disease?* Non-coronavirus mortality will strike back with a vengeance in the months and years to come, since so much attention has been focused on the virus to the exclusion of pretty much everything else. All the other dangerous illnesses haven't declared a truce whilst the virus is running, they are all still there too.


Living with the first and third(have a problem with it, not certain exactly what) still awaiting "normal routine" to start up. 

Both complicated by a third, epilepsy, that makes treatment harder anyway. Still consider the virus should take priority though. If at all possible I've stayed away from A&E's after any problems due to the epilepsy, if I'm able. Being picked up in the street rules this out.

The A&E's are busy at the best of times. Why make it worse for them. They can x-ray the head, close any cuts and keep me under observation. But that removes staff that could be seeing to someone else. 

Maybe too many visits to hospitals over the years has made me think this way, I don't know. So, if you're able to avoid doing so, why add to their workload?


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## mjr (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> In the developed world that has advanced medical facilities, the real mortality rate is almost certainly under half a percent of the true infected numbers, if you include those not having symptoms. To suggest that the virus will gave a devastating effect on large parts of the population is simply scaremongering from a totally risk-averse standpoint.


Even if you're correct, half a percent of the UK population is ~330'000. Wiping out the population of Coventry or Nottingham is not a large part to you?


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## Andy in Germany (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Depending on what source you go by, anything up to 70% of those catching the coronavirus do not even have any symptoms. Therefore those people are not actually ill, and are not prevented from functioning normally whilst infected. Of the remaining percentage who do get symptoms, a high proportion of those experience nothing worse than a heavy cold. That might put them out of action for a week. The number of people who get really ill, are hospitalised, or even die from the virus is only a tiny minority of the total, but these are the stats that the media obsesses about. In the developed world that has advanced medical facilities, the real mortality rate is almost certainly under half a percent of the true infected numbers, if you include those not having symptoms. To suggest that the virus will gave a devastating effect on large parts of the population is simply scaremongering from a totally risk-averse standpoint. The virus can be nasty and it can be fatal, but in the majority of cases it is neither of those things.





mjr said:


> Even if you're correct, half a percent of the UK population is ~330'000. Wiping out the population of Coventry or Nottingham is not a large part to you?



Also doesn't explain why the UK,being part of the 'developed world' seems to have such a high infection and death rate compared to other parts of the developed world.


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## MntnMan62 (11 Jul 2020)

I continue to be thoroughly amazed at how some people have so little regard for the lives of other people and instead place more importance on money. A vaccine will likely be developed that works, and will probably work well. It may take a little time for that to happen but it will happen. I don't see anything wrong with making people show some patience and continue with the lockdown so that tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of lives can be saved. The reality is a full lockdown wouldn't be as necessary if people would just use some common sense and social distance and wear a mask. But no. You can't tell me to wear a mask. I won't wear that thing. I can't breath. Sure, there may be some with psychological issues where a mask can bring full on panic attacks. Those people need to just stay home. There are tens of thousands of surgeons out there who wear masks all day long for hours at a time while they operate on people. Surely you can wear one for about 15 mintues or so while you go into a store. Sadly there are people who are just too selfish to be bothered to wear a mask at all. But it's those who won't social distance and wear a mask who create the spikes and surges of cases and increases in deaths. I believe in karma. Those who show so little regard for human life and put their own convenience ahead of the lives of others will get their just desserts. Karma is a biatch.


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## midlife (11 Jul 2020)

Hmm. The Trust are "actively managing" an outbreak at our Hospital. They have started testing all staff in clinical areas, think my test is on Monday. 

https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/...ossibly-linked-cumberland-infirmary-outbreak/

And therein lies the problem. Hospitals never stopped their acute services and now routine activities are starting again. Patients are encouraged to attend for things like breast screening but don't want to come because of fear / anxiety over Covid.


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## MntnMan62 (11 Jul 2020)

Just a reminder of what this virus has done. Over 12.7 million cases reported. The real number is likely much much larger. Just under 565,000 dead. And that number is also likely much much larger as I'm sure some countries aren't reporting anywhere near what is actually happening within their borders. And in my country, the screaming orange sphincter muscle has presided over 3.31 million cases and 137,000 deaths. Both those numbers are likely much larger since he has refused to undertake any centralized approach at testing. It's truly incredible what has happened in this country and what continues to happen in this country. And even more incredible the number of ridiculously stupid people who continue to support the screaming orange sphincter muscle.


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## gbb (11 Jul 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Also doesn't explain why the UK,being part of the 'developed world' seems to have such a high infection and death rate compared to other parts of the developed world.


Going by my experience at work, a large sector of the workforce at the entry end are the reason. Agency, workers from communities that have no respect or simply dont understand. We all muck up occasionally, I did today, brought a bag of chips in Ely and leant across and picked up the salt and vinegar without thinking. Profuse apologies followed....but the levels of deliberate and concerted non compliance are staggering among hundreds of workers at my company. You really dont have to look far to realise why it's so bad here.


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## SkipdiverJohn (11 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> And therein lies the problem. Hospitals never stopped their acute services and now routine activities are starting again. Patients are encouraged to attend for things like breast screening but don't want to come because of fear / anxiety over Covid.



The pro-lockdown zealots, of which there are plenty on here, are responsible for this, and it will store up a huge reservoir of dangerous medical conditions in the population. The message for the last few months has been the virus is really really dangerous so don't go anywhere and don't have any contact with anyone, otherwise you're doomed. Having been using non-stop fearmongering tactics to try and frighten the population into staying at home, now they've got a big problem reversing that message and telling people to get medical treatment or resume their normal routines that generate economic activity. There will be a significant amount of behavioral inertia that will not be instantly overcome and it will cause it's own problems. 
That's why I have never believed in lockdowns and preferred an advisory self-restraint regime where individuals make a personal decision about how much they interact with or avoid everyone else. Sweden may have a fair bit of virus, but they have never been totally overwhelmed and they are in a much better position to quickly bounce back to normal daily life. 
Success is not about just making one country look good in the global league tables, it's about minimising the collateral damage from the virus, both in economic and non-corona related medical terms. The truly worst hit places won't even appear in their real league positions because of having a dysfunctional medical system, being incompetent or corrupt, or just not producing reliable data.. Who really believes the numbers coming out of places like Iran or much of Africa? Even the worst reporting western countries where the data is at least credible, are going to be miles better off than many others below the media radar.


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## qigong chimp (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The pro-lockdown zealots, of which there are plenty on here, are responsible for this...


Don't forget care homes, which didn't follow procedure.


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## Rocky (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The truly worst hit places won't even appear in their real league positions because of having a dysfunctional medical system, being incompetent or corrupt, or just not producing reliable data..


Yes, that describes England’s response perfectly


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## Julia9054 (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The pro-lockdown zealots, of which there are plenty on here, are responsible for this, and it will store up a huge reservoir of dangerous medical conditions in the population. The message for the last few months has been the virus is really really dangerous so don't go anywhere and don't have any contact with anyone, otherwise you're doomed. Having been using non-stop fearmongering tactics to try and frighten the population into staying at home, now they've got a big problem reversing that message and telling people to get medical treatment or resume their normal routines that generate economic activity. There will be a significant amount of behavioral inertia that will not be instantly overcome and it will cause it's own problems.
> That's why I have never believed in lockdowns and preferred an advisory self-restraint regime where individuals make a personal decision about how much they interact with or avoid everyone else. Sweden may have a fair bit of virus, but they have never been totally overwhelmed and they are in a much better position to quickly bounce back to normal daily life.
> Success is not about just making one country look good in the global league tables, it's about minimising the collateral damage from the virus, both in economic and non-corona related medical terms. The truly worst hit places won't even appear in their real league positions because of having a dysfunctional medical system, being incompetent or corrupt, or just not producing reliable data.. Who really believes the numbers coming out of places like Iran or much of Africa? Even the worst reporting western countries where the data is at least credible, are going to be miles better off than many others below the media radar.


You keep quoting Sweden as an economic success story. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html
Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.
“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”
A quote from this article in the NY Times


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## qigong chimp (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> There will be a significant amount of behavioral inertia that will not be instantly overcome and it will cause it's own problems/.


Will there be? Or will we, with the selfless support of marketing and advertising and vouchers from HMG, soon be back in the swing of working our lives away in jobs we don't like that we might consume baubles and gewgaws that are neither beautiful nor useful, and whose manufacture and distribution are not sustainable?


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## classic33 (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> *The pro-lockdown zealots, of which there are plenty on here, are responsible for this, and it will store up a huge reservoir of dangerous medical conditions in the population. * The message for the last few months has been the virus is really really dangerous so don't go anywhere and don't have any contact with anyone, otherwise you're doomed. Having been using non-stop fearmongering tactics to try and frighten the population into staying at home, now they've got a big problem reversing that message and telling people to get medical treatment or resume their normal routines that generate economic activity. There will be a significant amount of behavioral inertia that will not be instantly overcome and it will cause it's own problems.
> That's why I have never believed in lockdowns and preferred an advisory self-restraint regime where individuals make a personal decision about how much they interact with or avoid everyone else. Sweden may have a fair bit of virus, but they have never been totally overwhelmed and they are in a much better position to quickly bounce back to normal daily life.
> Success is not about just making one country look good in the global league tables, it's about minimising the collateral damage from the virus, both in economic and non-corona related medical terms. The truly worst hit places won't even appear in their real league positions because of having a dysfunctional medical system, being incompetent or corrupt, or just not producing reliable data.. Who really believes the numbers coming out of places like Iran or much of Africa? Even the worst reporting western countries where the data is at least credible, are going to be miles better off than many others below the media radar.


Storing up medical conditions!
Cancer, breast
Heart issues/problem
Bone thinning
CSF* leaks, due, they think to the bone thinning
Hole in right upper jaw, caused by the bone thinning. Operation required to correct.
All bar the first two as a result of epilepsy**

*That's the fluid round your brain, clear yellow, sweet tasting. 

I've never had measles either, not that I want them either. Never had the jab either, the risks outweighed the benefit.

What you have to realise is that there are a whole load of folk, just like me(multiple health problems) that just want to get back to a normal life, but who aren't shouting from the rooftops that the current situation is a manufactured one. To that end, I am willing to get on living as best as I'm able. Without burdening the system any more, at present.

Added in edit
**The heart issue/problem may be down to anti-eplileptic medication that was taken for two years


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## SkipdiverJohn (11 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> You keep quoting Sweden as an economic success story.
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html
> Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.



The pandemic isn't over yet, it's still in full flow and there's plenty of opportunity for countries that have so far kept the numbers relatively low to be hit very hard at any time. 
Sweden seems to be experiencing a steady burn, where the virus is just chugging along, but within the country's capacity to deal with the numbers. That's a good place to be in because it's manageable and the immune population is steadily growing. The places that have thrown the kitchen sink at the virus with hard lockdowns and much collateral damage could find themselves right out of ammunition if/when it comes back. 
We'll see in a year or two who is still on their arse and who is up and running, pretty much back to normal.


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## Johnno260 (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The pro-lockdown zealots, of which there are plenty on here, are responsible for this, and it will store up a huge reservoir of dangerous medical conditions in the population. The message for the last few months has been the virus is really really dangerous so don't go anywhere and don't have any contact with anyone, otherwise you're doomed. Having been using non-stop fearmongering tactics to try and frighten the population into staying at home, now they've got a big problem reversing that message and telling people to get medical treatment or resume their normal routines that generate economic activity. There will be a significant amount of behavioral inertia that will not be instantly overcome and it will cause it's own problems.
> That's why I have never believed in lockdowns and preferred an advisory self-restraint regime where individuals make a personal decision about how much they interact with or avoid everyone else. Sweden may have a fair bit of virus, but they have never been totally overwhelmed and they are in a much better position to quickly bounce back to normal daily life.
> Success is not about just making one country look good in the global league tables, it's about minimising the collateral damage from the virus, both in economic and non-corona related medical terms. The truly worst hit places won't even appear in their real league positions because of having a dysfunctional medical system, being incompetent or corrupt, or just not producing reliable data.. Who really believes the numbers coming out of places like Iran or much of Africa? Even the worst reporting western countries where the data is at least credible, are going to be miles better off than many others below the media radar.



Yup better we trusted the public to do the right thing? And not have a lockdown.. you know how many examples I have witnessed where people can’t be trusted during this whole affair who treated others with utter contempt.

Sorry but the huge swathes of people who can’t see past their own small little bubble can’t be trusted to do the right thing.

Better we flooded the NHS with sick people and had people on the floor and the nightingale pop up hospitals at breaking point.


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## Rocky (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The pandemic isn't over yet, it's still in full flow and there's plenty of opportunity for countries that have so far kept the numbers relatively low to be hit very hard at any time.
> Sweden seems to be experiencing a steady burn, where the virus is just chugging along, but within the country's capacity to deal with the numbers. That's a good place to be in because it's manageable and the immune population is steadily growing. The places that have thrown the kitchen sink at the virus with hard lockdowns and much collateral damage could find themselves right out of ammunition if/when it comes back.
> We'll see in a year or two who is still on their arse and who is up and running, pretty much back to normal.


Your posts seem to be an evidence free zone. Just because you keep repeating the same things (over and over) doesn’t make them true.


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## srw (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The FL infection rate will rapidly rise to a peak, then it will rapidly fall away again. I very much doubt the shape of the infection graph from the point where cases begin to rapidly rise will be that different, apart from the timeline.


That's a prediction. It's testable. That's called doing science. 

Here's the latest evidence, and I have to say the prediction isn't looking too clever at the moment.


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## srw (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> A good proportion of the population are heartily sick of the lockdown, really don't give a toss about the virus, and are fully intent on going back to working and socialising as normal. You won't agree with that stance, but you're going to have to deal with it, because that's the reality of the situation.


I've already posted this, but it bears repeating. You're right, if by "a good proportion" you mean "very few"








Infographics from https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/public-opinion-covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic


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## mjr (11 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> That's a prediction. It's testable. That's called doing science.
> 
> Here's the latest evidence, and I have to say the prediction isn't looking too clever at the moment.
> 
> View attachment 535357


Slow burn start (was there a lockdown?) and it looks like the current surge has taken 40 days and still going but hasn't yet reached NY's peak level, while NY peaked after 30. So, different, but too soon to say if the surge is worse?


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## mjr (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The message for the last few months has been the virus is really really dangerous so don't go anywhere and don't have any contact with anyone, otherwise you're doomed.


Your arguments may be more convincing if they were based in reality. The message for the last two months has been Stale Yurts, Control the Walrus, Save Hives, or something about as nonsensical. The stay at home messaging (with laws and more detailed advice both giving loads of exceptions) lasted about six weeks, less than we've had this one.


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## mjr (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> [...] the immune population is steadily growing. The places that have thrown the kitchen sink at the virus with hard lockdowns and much collateral damage could find themselves right out of ammunition if/when it comes back.


1. We still don't know about infection based immunity.
2. Why would lockdown reduce "ammunition"? It seems like delaying the main onslaught gives more time for "rearmament" if you want to use WW2 terms, as you seem to love.
3. We'll see in time. Sweden does seem to have bet on herd immunity, but the UK govt bet hundreds of millions on the Oxford vaccine and then seems to have dithered and bet on farking chance saving us somehow, possibly in the hope that if they have no strategy then at least no one can criticise it for being the wrong strategy!


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## Inertia (11 Jul 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Your posts seem to be an evidence free zone. Just because you keep repeating the same things (over and over) doesn’t make them true.


The Reliable source of ‘its obvious innit’ and ‘I reckon’


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## tom73 (11 Jul 2020)

If as we are told the evidenced based "Sweden covid plan" by @SkipdiverJohn is the right way. 
New Zealand must have dropped the ball big time. 
Now remind be which county out the two is well on the way out of this mess? 
I expect they got lucky and effective testing , clear public health message, leadership going the right thing at the right time regardless of risking being unpopular. Leadership working with the government scientists and acting on advice and not undermining it. Backed up with a public treated like adults and that when told this is not a game, we have to all work together did just that. All of which has nothing to do with it.


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## Julia9054 (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The pandemic isn't over yet, it's still in full flow and there's plenty of opportunity for countries that have so far kept the numbers relatively low to be hit very hard at any time.
> Sweden seems to be experiencing a steady burn, where the virus is just chugging along, but within the country's capacity to deal with the numbers. That's a good place to be in because it's manageable and the immune population is steadily growing. The places that have thrown the kitchen sink at the virus with hard lockdowns and much collateral damage could find themselves right out of ammunition if/when it comes back.
> We'll see in a year or two who is still on their arse and who is up and running, pretty much back to normal.


Ok. So despite the fact that they have one of the worst death rates AND economists are predicting that their economy has so far suffered just the same as countries that imposed a lockdown, you know better.


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## Andy in Germany (11 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Success is not about just making one country look good in the global league tables,



Funny, it was until the UK slipped to the bottom.



SkipdiverJohn said:


> it's about minimising the collateral damage from the virus, both in economic and non-corona related medical terms.



To some extent I see that point. it's why the workshop I work at never closed completely even in the worst of the lockdown because we have a number of clients who would have had massive psychological breakdowns if we had. 

On the other hand we are in a country with an effective tracing system and our healthcare system while a bit creaky at times, hasn't been gutted by "austerity". This is why we currently have just over 9000 deaths and regular medical treatment has resumed, in fact in our region we are largely back to normal, with a few situations where we need to wear masks.


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## flake99please (11 Jul 2020)

Watching CBS News with officials from Louisiana state speaking of hospitals at maximum capacity. ICU account for 30% of patients. Ages from 25+ with no underlying medical conditions now with severe respiratory problems.

They’re literally begging for people to maintain social distancing, wear a mask,and wash their hands frequently. Such a shame to see.


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## Joey Shabadoo (11 Jul 2020)

flake99please said:


> Watching CBS News with officials from Louisiana state speaking of hospitals at maximum capacity. ICU account for 30% of patients. Ages from 25+ with no underlying medical conditions now with severe respiratory problems.
> 
> They’re literally begging for people to maintain social distancing, wear a mask,and wash their hands frequently. Such a shame to see.


They've re-opened Disney world in Florida!


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## flake99please (11 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> They've re-opened Disney world in Florida!



Insanity.


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## Mugshot (11 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> They've re-opened Disney world in Florida!


They're taking the Mickey!!


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## Unkraut (11 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> New Zealand ... I expect they got lucky and effective testing , clear public health message, leadership going the right thing at the right time regardless of risking being unpopular.


They clamped down very hard when the numbers were still very low, managed to stop an escalation and were for a while free of the virus. Unfortunately since then it has been brought back into the country by those returning home or allowed in on compassionate grounds. The latter included two British women, who reintroduced the virus aided by a NZ failure to implement the lockdown procedures properly in their case.


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## Unkraut (11 Jul 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Except that John Ioannidis and his colleagues say one thing and do the exact opposite (as my wife has found when challenging them on the evidence)!!


What I found interesting about him was that he is often touted (e.g. Daily Wailers) as an informed figure who has argued against the lockdown strategy, when in fact he does see the necessity of this if only because of the initially slow reaction.


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## Unkraut (11 Jul 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> On the other hand we are in a country with an effective tracing system ...


The infamous tracing app has been downloaded heading up for 16 million times!


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## tom73 (11 Jul 2020)

Unkraut said:


> They clamped down very hard when the numbers were still very low, managed to stop an escalation and were for a while free of the virus. Unfortunately since then it has been brought back into the country by those returning home or allowed in on compassionate grounds. The latter included two British women, who reintroduced the virus aided by a NZ failure to implement the lockdown procedures properly in their case.


They did yes but without the rest it would not have been enough. The quarantine error was quickly fixed only little error and next day the army are put in charge of running it. What’s more a few others example got found to have happened and with out any messing about the health minister resigned. Now compare that with here mess up after mess up and still they hang on.


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## VelvetUnderpants (11 Jul 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/omid9/status/1282048808822738944?s=19


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## Wobblers (11 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Even if you're correct, half a percent of the UK population is ~330'000. Wiping out the population of Coventry or Nottingham is not a large part to you?



And it's not just that 300,000 (actually, the data we have suggests 600,000 is a more likely figure) who die. It's the millions who'll suffer post viral fatigue, and will be simply unable to go back to work for many months, over 6 in some cases. It's the hundreds of thousands who'll be unfortunate enough to have permanent lung damage, and never be able to work again. Or the tens of thousands who'll end up on dialysis, or the tens of thousands who'll end up with strokes. These are people who'll need expensive treatment for the rest of their lives. The financial burden to the NHS, and society as a whole of those unfortunate people would likely dwarf the cost of the lockdown.


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## MntnMan62 (12 Jul 2020)

The most incredible story I heard today is of a 30 year old man from San Antonio, Texas who attended a Covid party. These Covid parties are parties for people who think the virus is a hoax and attend with someone who tested positive so they can compete to see who can catch the virus first. I kid you not. And his dying words were “I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it's not.” This is a perfect example of just how ridiculously stupid people in the US are and explains why donald drumpf is in the White House.


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## Slick (12 Jul 2020)

VelvetUnderpants said:


> View: https://twitter.com/omid9/status/1282048808822738944?s=19





MntnMan62 said:


> The most incredible story I heard today is of a 30 year old man from San Antonio, Texas who attended a Covid party. These Covid parties are parties for people who think the virus is a hoax and attend with someone who tested positive so they can compete to see who can catch the virus first. I kid you not. And his dying words were “I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it's not.” This is a perfect example of just how ridiculously stupid people in the US are and explains why donald drumpf is in the White House.


Are we sure this is really true?


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## SkipdiverJohn (12 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> I expect they got lucky



In one sense they did get lucky. Remote geography, island nation, low population, and only low levels of air travel from other countries. NZ isn't a major aviation staging post where millions of people a week briefly touch down on the way to some final destination, which is the case in both the UK and US. You don't just decide on a whim to hop on a plane and go to NZ for a long weekend, as a lot of people do between countries in western Europe. There's massively less mixing of international travellers between countries, so the conduit for virus transmission in NZ simply didn't exist to anything like the degree of most countries that were much worst hit by the virus.


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## mjr (12 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> Are we sure this is really true?


Not completely because it's Fox but https://www.kfyrtv.com/2020/07/12/i...om-texas-dies-after-attending-covid-19-party/


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## Slick (12 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Not completely because it's Fox but https://www.kfyrtv.com/2020/07/12/i...om-texas-dies-after-attending-covid-19-party/


I already fear what will happen in America but if this is true, well I just don't know how it could get any worse.


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## Joey Shabadoo (12 Jul 2020)

Take it with a pinch of salt because it's the Indy - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...texas-man-dies-covid-party-hoax-a9614231.html

Lots of people reporting the initial report but no primary source.


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## PK99 (12 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> In one sense they did get lucky. Remote geography, island nation, low population, and only low levels of air travel from other countries. NZ isn't a major aviation staging post where millions of people a week briefly touch down on the way to some final destination, which is the case in both the UK and US. You don't just decide on a whim to hop on a plane and go to NZ for a long weekend, as a lot of people do between countries in western Europe. There's massively less mixing of international travellers between countries, so the conduit for virus transmission in NZ simply didn't exist to anything like the degree of most countries that were much worst hit by the virus.



Putting some numbers to those:
1000+miles to the nearest landmass
5 Million population with the same land area as the UK
Largest city 1.5million
Peak daily air passenger arrivals at all airports 24,000 in January (peak tourist season) Vs Heathrow 100,000 arrivals per day annual average


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## marinyork (12 Jul 2020)

PK99 said:


> Putting some numbers to those:
> 1000+miles to the nearest landmass
> 5 Million population with the same land area as the UK
> Largest city 1.5million
> Peak daily air passenger arrivals at all airports 24,000 in January (peak tourist season) Vs Heathrow 100,000 arrivals per day annual average



Don't know about new zealand but coronavirus arrived in the UK at least 1300 hundred separate times.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-52993734

I know Iceland did genetic study. Iceland was unlucky as had big enougg air links to the UK and Germany to have it imported on lots of different occasions.


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## tom73 (12 Jul 2020)

Pretty much sums up how some still believe it's nothing to worry about. 

“Three main factors stand in the way of prevention: First, public indifference. People do not appreciate the risks they run. The second factor.....is the personal character of the measures which must be employed...It does not lie in human nature for a man who thinks he has only a slight cold to shut himself up in rigid isolation... Third, the highly infectious nature of the respiratory infections adds to the difficulty of their control.”
Major George A Soper, 1919, The Lessons of the Pandemic, Science

Some will never learn


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## PK99 (12 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Don't know about new zealand but *coronavirus arrived in the UK at least 1300 hundred separate times.*
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-52993734
> 
> I know Iceland did genetic study. Iceland was unlucky as had big enough air links to the UK and Germany to have it imported on lots of different occasions.



Not at all surprising - in March/April the Foreign Office crisis support team had 300,000 Brits seeking emergency repatriation assistance from just about every country in the world. Plus the 100's of 1000's who made it back under their own steam of with the assistance of travel firms - as the linked article says 20,000 arrivals per day in Mid March from Spain,


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## IaninSheffield (12 Jul 2020)

Wonder whether US healthcare insurance companies will be paying out for the cost of care for those who contract COVID as a result of attending a 'party'?


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## tom73 (12 Jul 2020)

Just when the message look's to be starting to shift we get this. Michael this is a public health emergency are you happy for a surgeon to use common sense and not cut off the wrong leg? Or do you expect someone to put in place measures to stop it happening? 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53381000


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## Inertia (12 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just when the message look's to be starting to shift we get this. Michael this is a public health emergency are you happy for a surgeon to use common sense and not cut off the wrong leg? Or do you expect someone to put in place measures to stop it happening?
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53381000


Common sense, sound like a way for any calls for clarity to be classed as calling people stupid. At least make a recommendation even if you don't make it compulsory. 

Tell us what, ideally, you want from us!


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## Unkraut (12 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Remote geography, island nation, low population, and only low levels of air travel from other countries.You don't just decide on a whim to hop on a plane and go to NZ for a long weekend, as a lot of people do between countries in western Europe. There's massively less mixing of international travellers between countries, so the conduit for virus transmission in NZ simply didn't exist to anything like the degree of most countries that were much worst hit by the virus.


Not so. When my better half and younger daughter were in NZ at the beginning of the pandemic they encountered tourists from all over the globe, but especially South-East Asia. This was early March. Very easy for the virus to be imported and spread rapidly amongst the population in contact with tourists, who could spread it amongst themselves.

The authorities really did react surprisingly quickly and I can well imagine averted worse, both in terms of the virus itself and the economic damage a prolonged lockdown will bring with it. Some tourist sites didn't wait for the government but closed down quickly.


PK99 said:


> ... in March/April the Foreign Office crisis support team had 300,000 Brits seeking emergency repatriation assistance


The last time I asked, my wife would still be in NZ if she had had to rely on dynamic Boris Johnson and his government getting on with repatriation. Regardless of party political considerations he is simply useless in a crisis.


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## classic33 (12 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Take it with a pinch of salt because it's the Indy - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...texas-man-dies-covid-party-hoax-a9614231.html
> 
> Lots of people reporting the initial report but no primary source.


https://news4sanantonio.com/news/lo...in-their-30s-dies-after-attending-covid-party


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## a.twiddler (12 Jul 2020)

This reminds me of the time before there was an effective MMR vaccine. Granted, measles is not the coronavirus, but it still has percentage of risk of some serious and life threatening consequences. There used to be "measles parties" where if a kid had it, other parents would bring their kids to visit in the expectation that they would catch it in a sort of controlled way, and once having got over it, would be immune. Herd immunity I suppose, but not without risk. At least this had a rationale. Nobody thought measles, or mumps or rubella were hoaxes.

I suppose the next thing will be that once an effective coronavirus vaccine is developed, the anti vaxxers will rise to the challenge and start propagating their dangerous unscientific nonsense as they have done with MMR and other vaccines. The Americans have not got the monopoly on conspiracy theories.


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## marinyork (12 Jul 2020)

Potentially significant story and bad news.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

Uk robust antibody study Shows a range of responses and immunity/partial immunity may only be for some months, three being a number plucked out. Hard numbers, unclear what levels of antibodies means not infected/less ill and so on in the real world.

Not that particular antibodies are the be all and end all, the immune system is much more complicated than that.


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## SkipdiverJohn (12 Jul 2020)

a.twiddler said:


> This reminds me of the time before there was an effective MMR vaccine. Granted, measles is not the coronavirus, but it still has percentage of risk of some serious and life threatening consequences..........
> once an effective coronavirus vaccine is developed, the anti vaxxers will rise to the challenge and start propagating their dangerous unscientific nonsense as they have done with MMR and other vaccines.



I've had measles as a youngster and I'm pretty certain I also had the coronavirus in March, and given the choice, I'd opt for coronavirus every time. Measles made me feel more ill and took longer to recover from. No need for virus parties when I had the measles, half my class at school was going down with it one after the other. Seem to remember even some teachers got it.
Unfortunately, the medical authorities have made a rod for their own back with MMR, by insisting on giving the combined vaccine, not all separate ones. It's this aspect that caused a lot of people to refuse it, and gave the anti-vaxxers ammunition.


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## Slick (12 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I've had measles as a youngster and I'm pretty certain I also had the coronavirus in March, and given the choice, I'd opt for coronavirus every time. Measles made me feel more ill and took longer to recover from. No need for virus parties when I had the measles, half my class at school was going down with it one after the other. Seem to remember even some teachers got it.
> Unfortunately, the medical authorities have made a rod for their own back with MMR, by insisting on giving the combined vaccine, not all separate ones. It's this aspect that caused a lot of people to refuse it, and gave the anti-vaxxers ammunition.


This really is beyond the pale.


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## Rusty Nails (12 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> This really is beyond the pale.



It reminds me of Eric Morecambe's piano playing joke.

All the right words, but in the wrong order.


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## Julia9054 (12 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Unfortunately, the medical authorities have made a rod for their own back with MMR, by insisting on giving the combined vaccine, not all separate ones. It's this aspect that caused a lot of people to refuse it, and gave the anti-vaxxers ammunition.


No evidence that single vaccines are safer/reduce side effects. Evidence that if parents have to bring their children for 6 different appointments rather than 2 that a significant proportion will miss one or more and full immunity will not be conferred


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## Rocky (12 Jul 2020)

Has Andrew Wakefield joined CC?


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## classic33 (12 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I've had measles as a youngster* and I'm pretty certain I also had the coronavirus in March, *and given the choice, I'd opt for coronavirus every time. Measles made me feel more ill and took longer to recover from. No need for virus parties when I had the measles, half my class at school was going down with it one after the other. Seem to remember even some teachers got it.
> Unfortunately, the medical authorities have made a rod for their own back with MMR, by insisting on giving the combined vaccine, not all separate ones. It's this aspect that caused a lot of people to refuse it, and gave the anti-vaxxers ammunition.


Friday you were saying you would prefer to catch it early on, now you're "pretty certain" you've already had it. Which is it?


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## a.twiddler (12 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I've had measles as a youngster and I'm pretty certain I also had the coronavirus in March, and given the choice, I'd opt for coronavirus every time. Measles made me feel more ill and took longer to recover from. No need for virus parties when I had the measles, half my class at school was going down with it one after the other. Seem to remember even some teachers got it.
> Unfortunately, the medical authorities have made a rod for their own back with MMR, by insisting on giving the combined vaccine, not all separate ones. It's this aspect that caused a lot of people to refuse it, and gave the anti-vaxxers ammunition.


"Pretty certain"? So you had a sniffle and automatically thought it was corona virus? Been tested then for active infection or antibodies since? If not, how can you be "pretty certain" of anything. The number of people who have said to me recently, oh, I think I've had it, it's nothing to worry about.... But they hadn't been tested, so how can they know? I f you had a sniffle in March 2019, you'ld have said "it's a cold". Now due to the high profile which coronavirus currently has, anyone who has anything which would pass unnoticed in normal times thinks they have/had coronavirus. Part of this is people's own foolishness, but of course if we had an efficient "test, trace and isolate" system up and running people would be in a better position to know. The only thing you can be sure about for certain is that you had measles!


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## MntnMan62 (12 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> Are we sure this is really true?



ABC News, NY Times, USA Today, Newsweek all reported on this story. I'd question it if it came from just those questionable news sources such as The Independent, People and the like.


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## MntnMan62 (12 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I've had measles as a youngster and I'm pretty certain I also had the coronavirus in March, and given the choice, I'd opt for coronavirus every time. Measles made me feel more ill and took longer to recover from. No need for virus parties when I had the measles, half my class at school was going down with it one after the other. Seem to remember even some teachers got it.
> Unfortunately, the medical authorities have made a rod for their own back with MMR, by insisting on giving the combined vaccine, not all separate ones. It's this aspect that caused a lot of people to refuse it, and gave the anti-vaxxers ammunition.



You just got lucky. Lots of other people have been left with permanent heart, kidney, respiratory and brain issues that are not cureable. Did you ever get tested since you think you had it? If you didn't, that makes you quite irresponsible because you probably ran around spreading the virus to anyone you met. I'm guessing you're one of those who refuses to wear a mask. You should go get an antibody test to see if you in fact did have it. Otherwise, I'm taking anything you say with far less than a grain of salt.


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## Slick (12 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> ABC News, NY Times, USA Today, Newsweek all reported on this story. I'd question it if it came from just those questionable news sources such as The Independent, People and the like.


Fair enough, I suppose my disbelief was more in hope than expectation.


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## roubaixtuesday (12 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Unfortunately, the medical authorities have made a rod for their own back with MMR, by insisting on giving the combined vaccine, not all separate ones. It's this aspect that caused a lot of people to refuse it, and gave the anti-vaxxers ammunition



Yeah right.

Combining vaccines into a single safer shot requiring less injections and doctors visits is what fuelled the anti vax movement.

What medical authorities should do is make vaccines less convenient and less safe. That way there's no way the anti vaxxers will gain any traction.


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## IaninSheffield (12 Jul 2020)

In a recent Cautionary Tales podcast episode ('The Spreadsheet of Life and Death'), Tim Harford discussed how attempts have been made to quantify the value of lives. Although not specifically Covid-related, it does give one pause to reflect on how difficult it must be to juggle the complex factors involved in determining an adequate, viable, sympathetic, effective and realistic response.


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## marinyork (12 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> You just got lucky. Lots of other people have been left with permanent heart, kidney, respiratory and brain issues that are not cureable. Did you ever get tested since you think you had it? If you didn't, that makes you quite irresponsible because you probably ran around spreading the virus to anyone you met. I'm guessing you're one of those who refuses to wear a mask. You should go get an antibody test to see if you in fact did have it. Otherwise, I'm taking anything you say with far less than a grain of salt.



You're having a go at someone else for toxic masculine 'it'll be all right language' ? Chuffing hell. This is mindless hypocrisy from yourself. You could just as easily be swapping places with different views with Skipdriverjohn.

You're also talking complete nonsense yourself. In March Skipdriverjohn would have been very unlikely to have been given a test. Higher quality antibody tests along with many others besides were also taken off general sale by PHE and I don't know whether they've returned. You can in theory get hold of the lower accuracy ones, but antibody tests of repute are generally reserved for studies and workers.

Three recent pieces of research also suggest, that if he did have it in March he may test antibody negative now anyway.


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## deptfordmarmoset (12 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Three recent pieces of research also suggest, that if he did have it in March he may test antibody negative now anyway.


The Guardian's report on the Guy's and St Thomas' study (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests) seems to suggest a residual ''immune memory'' may make subsequent infections less severe. I'm not going to any covid parties to test this for myself.


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## Rezillo (12 Jul 2020)

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-infection


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## MntnMan62 (12 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> You're having a go at someone else for toxic masculine 'it'll be all right language' ? Chuffing hell. This is mindless hypocrisy from yourself. You could just as easily be swapping places with different views with Skipdriverjohn.
> 
> You're also talking complete nonsense yourself. In March Skipdriverjohn would have been very unlikely to have been given a test. Higher quality antibody tests along with many others besides were also taken off general sale by PHE and I don't know whether they've returned. You can in theory get hold of the lower accuracy ones, but antibody tests of repute are generally reserved for studies and workers.
> 
> Three recent pieces of research also suggest, that if he did have it in March he may test antibody negative now anyway.



What part of my post reflects "toxic masculinity" and what part is hypocritical? Serious questions. And no, I'm not talking complete nonsense. I have a fair amount of science and about 5 months of a gazillion examples that prove what I say is correct. Masks and social distancing are PROVEN to be the ONLY things that work so far. If you chose to not believe that then that's unfortunate. And if Skipdriverjohn had it in March, you're probably correct that it might not show up in an antibody test now. The tests back in March were shyte. But even if I thought I had it back in March, I'd put my health insurance to good use and have the test anyway just to see how it comes out. If it comes out positive, then I know the answer. If it comes out negative, then I don't. That's worth it to me. Hypocrisy by foot. Bloody hell.


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## Shreds (12 Jul 2020)

Rezillo - Thanks.



> https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-infection



That article is certainly worth the long read.


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## Rezillo (12 Jul 2020)

Shreds said:


> Rezillo - Thanks.
> That article is certainly worth the long read.



It's scary stuff, althought I wish there was more info on the percentage of cases with the more serious neurological symptoms, i.e. how worried should we be? I suppose it is too early to say.

Having said that, if the short term ones that you think you should get over with time turn out to be long term because they are due to neurological damage, spending much of your life exhausted and depressed is serious in itself.


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## MntnMan62 (12 Jul 2020)

Rezillo said:


> It's scary stuff, althought I wish there was more info on the percentage of cases with the more serious neurological symptoms, i.e. how worried should we be? I suppose it is too early to say.
> 
> Having said that, if the short term ones that you think you should get over with time turn out to be long term because they are due to neurological damage, spending much of your life exhausted and depressed is serious in itself.



I'd say that if you add the people with permanent debilitating organ damage and neurological issues to the number of deaths, doesn't that give us plenty to be worried about?


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## Shreds (12 Jul 2020)

I am just appalled at the proportion of brain dead idiots to have come out of lockdown. (Perhaps they have already had Covid 19 and the neurological condition drives them to Outlet villages, Mac Ds and KFC.?)

All those words that were said during lockdown about becoming a more caring and more understanding society evaporated and the fools think they can carry on as normal caring for no one but selfishly themselves often in their 4x4s.

A life long pharmacist I was speaking to the other day seriously was looking to get into another career, out of medicine, before the second Covid peak arrives in October 2020.

We shall see if she is correct but can understand her desire to start a new career.


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## Rezillo (12 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I'd say that if you add the people with permanent debilitating organ damage and neurological issues to the number of deaths, doesn't that give us plenty to be worried about?



Well, yes, but the organ damage was known at Wuhan in February so it's not unexpected, just that the possible cause is. It was a bit wierd that the early calls in the UK were for ventilators when the reports from Wuhan indicated that dialysis machines were key as well.


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## Shreds (12 Jul 2020)

True, but true dialysis is likely hugely more expensive for Boris than a few thousand ventilators.


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## MntnMan62 (12 Jul 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Well, yes, but the organ damage was known at Wuhan in February so it's not unexpected, just that the possible cause is. It was a bit wierd that the early calls in the UK were for ventilators when the reports from Wuhan indicated that dialysis machines were key as well.



And here in the US we've been kept from anything meaningful by the sphincter muscle. If it wasn't for Dr, Fauci, the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infection Diseases we wouldn't know anything. And now drumpf is making a move against Fauci because he's been providing us with guidance that drumpf fears will cost him an election. So drumpf will likely fire him this week, if not on Monday. I continue to be blown away each and ever day by the ever increasing insanity of this government.


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## Milzy (12 Jul 2020)

I keep forgetting about Covid. Busy weeks, see a lot of people. Club rides in groups of 6. Pubs are open. Life is almost normal. 
We have beaten it so quick. Well done everybody.


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## MntnMan62 (12 Jul 2020)

Milzy said:


> I keep forgetting about Covid. Busy weeks, see a lot of people. Club rides in groups of 6. Pubs are open. Life is almost normal.
> We have beaten it so quick. Well done everybody.



Wearing a mask at the pub? Social distancing? How far apart from the other riders are you on group rides?


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## a.twiddler (12 Jul 2020)

Milzy said:


> I keep forgetting about Covid. Busy weeks, see a lot of people. Club rides in groups of 6. Pubs are open. Life is almost normal.
> We have beaten it so quick. Well done everybody.


It's a wind up. Can there be any other explanation?


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## MntnMan62 (12 Jul 2020)

a.twiddler said:


> It's a wind up. Can there be any other explanation?



And I swung and missed.... I'm such a sucker.


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## Milzy (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Wearing a mask at the pub? Social distancing? How far apart from the other riders are you on group rides?


Not far enough. You can't chain gang without a draught though.


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## Johnno260 (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> And here in the US we've been kept from anything meaningful by the sphincter muscle. If it wasn't for Dr, Fauci, the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infection Diseases we wouldn't know anything. And now drumpf is making a move against Fauci because he's been providing us with guidance that drumpf fears will cost him an election. So drumpf will likely fire him this week, if not on Monday. I continue to be blown away each and ever day by the ever increasing insanity of this government.



Trump and his government come across as stupid and self centred, if he doesn’t fire the guy he will blame Obama, I ‘m not saying Obama was perfect but he had a more calm and thoughtful approach.

One of the most stupid things I have seen from the US government was the guy saying the federal stock piles weren’t for the separate states to have access to.


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## mjr (13 Jul 2020)

Milzy said:


> Not far enough. You can't chain gang without a draught though.


Only a small proportion of group rides are chain gangs. Small chain gangs are technically legal but probably unwise now


----------



## PeteXXX (13 Jul 2020)

I've just screenshotted (is that a word?) air travel over Europe.
It's busier than a month ago..


----------



## mjr (13 Jul 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> View attachment 535669
> 
> 
> I've just screenshotted (is that a word?) air travel over Europe.
> It's busier than a month ago..


I think they've got the plane size a bit wrong.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (13 Jul 2020)

More research on the pollution/covid-19 relationship here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...dence-air-pollution-worsens-coronavirus-study

(It also answers my question back in April about how the effects of pollution can be separated from urban population density.)


----------



## tom73 (13 Jul 2020)

Riding high in yet another death league table 
https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/workforce/uk-highest-covid-19-healthcare-worker-deaths-world/


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Trump and his government come across as stupid and self centred, if he doesn’t fire the guy he will blame Obama, I ‘m not saying Obama was perfect but he had a more calm and thoughtful approach.
> 
> One of the most stupid things I have seen from the US government was the guy saying the federal stock piles weren’t for the separate states to have access to.



Stupid and self centered is the exact description of the guy. Everything he does is with a mind towards what's in it for him. If there isn't anything in it for him, he won't do it. And he'll go to far extremes in order to get what he thinks he's entitled. I also don't think Obama was perfect. I was actually pretty disappointed with his two terms and felt he could have accomplished so much more had he been stronger. But he approached things with a great deal of thought and consideration and he sought the advice and perspective of the experts and actually listened to them. drumpf doesn't do any of those things. And that stockpile comment was definitely one of his more stupid ones but there really is no shortage of stupid comments from him. I actually haven't heard him say one thing that was intelligent.


----------



## Unkraut (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I actually haven't heard him say one thing that was intelligent.


If it please the Court, saying something intelligent requires an intelligent thought process to take place first within the brain, facilitated by prior education and knowledge input; in my expert opinion this is where the problem lies ...


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Unkraut said:


> If it please the Court, saying something intelligent requires an intelligent thought process to take place first within the brain, facilitated by prior education and knowledge input; in my expert opinion this is where the problem lies ...



You've hit the proverbial nail on the head...


----------



## Unkraut (13 Jul 2020)

What I was going to say way that German holiday makers who have gone to the Med resorts are bahaving as though they have gone to get away from the virus and are ditching the distancing and hygiene measures. This is raising real fears that it will be re-imported into the country with the potential to start a second wave of infections. Health minister at present reckons this is 50/50 whereas others are more hopeful.

It's very far from true it's just the Brits who are in danger of easing up too quickly.


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Unkraut said:


> What I was going to say way that German holiday makers who have gone to the Med resorts are bahaving as though they have gone to get away from the virus and are ditching the distancing and hygiene measures. This is raising real fears that it will be re-imported into the country with the potential to start a second wave of infections. Health minister at present reckons this is 50/50 whereas others are more hopeful.
> 
> It's very far from true it's just the Brits who are in danger of easing up too quickly.



It's most definitely not just Brits. Americans are the worst offenders. And then they insist on traveling to all kinds of places and bring their stupidity with them. I know I've said this before but I'm constantly amazed at the level of moronic behavior we are seeing when a virus with no vaccine or treatment is freely flying around the globe and has killed about 575,000 people in about 7 months (I'm starting in December). That works out to an annualized number of deaths at just under 1 million. And I would say that the surge in cases that we are seeing now will translate into an uptick in the number of deaths. Which means we will see far more than 1 million people dead from this thing. But hey, we should still go out and party like it's 1999. To heck with it. Let's have Covid-19 parties and see how can get the virus first. Yes, this is a real thing among the most stupid of stupid in the US.


----------



## Andy in Germany (13 Jul 2020)

Unkraut said:


> What I was going to say way that German holiday makers who have gone to the Med resorts are bahaving as though they have gone to get away from the virus and are ditching the distancing and hygiene measures. This is raising real fears that it will be re-imported into the country with the potential to start a second wave of infections. Health minister at present reckons this is 50/50 whereas others are more hopeful.
> 
> It's very far from true it's just the Brits who are in danger of easing up too quickly.



It worries me that my clients (many of whom are not brilliant at the best of times about hygiene) are getting relaxed and assuming the danger is past.


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> It worries me that my clients (many of whom are not brilliant at the best of times about hygiene) are getting relaxed and assuming the danger is past.



Oh, it's happening. I've called it stupid. God calls it his Law of Natural Selection. I stay home and wear a mask whenever I do have to go out. I just stay away from people. For me that's easy since I hate people.


----------



## Andy in Germany (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Oh, it's happening. I've called it stupid. God calls it his Law of Natural Selection. I stay home and wear a mask whenever I do have to go out. I just stay away from people. For me that's easy since I hate people.



To be fair many have learning difficulties and at least a couple didn't understand why they had to wear a mask in the first place.


----------



## Milzy (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Oh, it's happening. I've called it stupid. God calls it his Law of Natural Selection. I stay home and wear a mask whenever I do have to go out. I just stay away from people. For me that's easy since I hate people.


Most people are asymptomatic, aren't you over reacting slightly?


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> To be fair many have learning difficulties and at least a couple didn't understand why they had to wear a mask in the first place.



I know lots of people with learning difficulties who have this thing pretty well figured out by now. They can't escape the stupid moniker that easily...


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Milzy said:


> Most people are asymptomatic, aren't you over reacting slightly?



It's proven that people without symptoms can still transmit the virus to others. That was established early in the outbreak. So, no, I don't think I'm over reacting slightly.


----------



## Rezillo (13 Jul 2020)

Milzy said:


> Most people are asymptomatic, aren't you over reacting slightly?



Your first statement appears to be at odds with the question that follows it.


----------



## Andy in Germany (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I know lots of people with learning difficulties who have this thing pretty well figured out by now. They can't escape the stupid moniker that easily...



Many of my clients with learning difficulties do understand, many don't. It depends on the individual, which is why we have protected workshops in Germany; the clue is in the name.


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Many of my clients with learning difficulties do understand, many don't. It depends on the individual, which is why we have protected workshops in Germany; the clue is in the name.



I'd say that 99% of the people we see in video on the news, facebook, anywhere really, where throngs of people are congregating with no social distancing at all and no one wearing masks are NOT people with learning difficulties.


----------



## Rezillo (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> It's proven that people without symptoms can still transmit the virus to others. That was established early in the outbreak. So, no, I don't think I'm over reacting slightly.



Yes, and increasingly so. The WHO was forced to backtrack a couple of months ago on claims that asymptomatic transmission was rare and most recently we have this:

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/02/2008373117

One quote from that: "Our results indicate that silent disease transmission during the presymptomatic and asymptomatic stages are responsible for more than 50% of the overall attack rate in COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, such silent transmission alone can sustain outbreaks even if all symptomatic cases are immediately isolated".


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (13 Jul 2020)

Pleased to see that a busy Lidl this afternoon had everybody wearing masks, 100%


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I know lots of people with learning difficulties who have this thing pretty well figured out by now. They can't escape the stupid moniker that easily...



That's OK then because all people with learning difficulties are the same.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Jul 2020)

Milzy said:


> Most people are asymptomatic



But about 1% die, and an unknown further number suffer life changing effects. 

These are not great odds.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Jul 2020)

I've barely been in a shop for weeks. 

Popped into our waterstones today. I was the only person wearing a mask. Not a single one visible elsewhere on the High Street either, though I didn't actually go in any other shops. 

As a lycra wearer and tandem rider, I'm not overly concerned about what others think of me, but I must confess to feeling a right plonker all on my lonesome.

Unless it's mandated, it's not going to happen, I think.


----------



## Rocky (13 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> But about 1% die, and an unknown further number suffer life changing effects.
> 
> These are not great odds.


'She's young, fit and has been ill with Covid for months'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-53368768


----------



## tom73 (13 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I've barely been in a shop for weeks.
> 
> Popped into our waterstones today. I was the only person wearing a mask. Not a single one visible elsewhere on the High Street either, though I didn't actually go in any other shops.
> 
> ...



Don’t be look at it as a clear open sign showing you care about others.


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## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> That's OK then because all people with learning difficulties are the same.



I'm not the one pointing out what people with learning difficulties are doing.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Don’t be look at it as a clear open sign showing you care about others.



Yeah, it's interesting psychology wise. 

I understand its a rational and sensible thing to do.

I'm a pretty robust person, no shrinking violet by any means. 

The Prime Minister, no less, has advised that we do this. 

Yet still, being the only person in town taking this course of action, I find it really uncomfortable.


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Yeah, it's interesting psychology wise.
> 
> I understand its a rational and sensible thing to do.
> 
> ...



Does that mean you are going to allow what other people think dictate what risks you take with your own life?


----------



## Andy in Germany (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I'd say that 99% of the people we see in video on the news, facebook, anywhere really, where throngs of people are congregating with no social distancing at all and no one wearing masks are NOT people with learning difficulties.



One thing that really worries me is that the UK/US don't have or scrapped most provision for vulnerable adults and/or adults with psychological disabilities. This means you have a lot of people who really need help and in many cases medication who aren't getting it, and remember learning problems or Psychological disabilities aren't obvious from a Facebook post.

Alternatively some are getting medication but that has side effects which can include learning difficulties or getting confused. It is not surprising that many end up on the streets or in this case, either not understanding or ignoring C-19 guidelines. Many will have heard our Glorious Leaders or someone in the media saying masks are pointless, and believed them; they can't filter oinformation to decide what is correct and what isn't. With no assistance or support they will just wander off to the shops without a mask or go to the privvy and not wash their hands because they've been told there's no point, or worse, try and drink bleach because they think it will help.

One reason for the workshops in Germany is that it means people have someone to help them understand or at the very least make sure they are kept reasonably safe from harm.


----------



## Adam4868 (13 Jul 2020)

The mask wearing needs to be made mandatory or else it's a waste of time.Nobodys wearing them here,pubs were packed at weekend aswell.You can't get on a bus here without one,if you haven't got one it's a quid to buy or your not getting on.


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I'm not the one pointing out what people with learning difficulties are doing.



No, just using the term stupid in a thoughtless manner.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Does that mean you are going to allow what other people think dictate what risks you take with your own life?



Well, two points on that one. 

Firstly, wearing a cloth mask has probably zero direct benefit to the wearer. So I wouldn't be taking any risk with my own life going maskless.

Secondly, I did wear the mask, so I'm a bit lost as to what point you're making here?


----------



## tom73 (13 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Yeah, it's interesting psychology wise.
> 
> I understand its a rational and sensible thing to do.
> 
> ...



Yes I get that and fully understand was more a bit of mutual support really. For me it’s not face covers that get to me. It’s the total break down of the rest too in shops most of the staff look to no longer care anymore too. I‘m now really looking again at if the already small number of shops I feel happy about. Are just too much of risk. Local Tesco has total lost the plot most measures have just been removed.


----------



## Rezillo (13 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I've barely been in a shop for weeks.
> 
> Popped into our waterstones today. I was the only person wearing a mask. Not a single one visible elsewhere on the High Street either, though I didn't actually go in any other shops.
> 
> ...



I think there must be variations around the country that make it difficult to get a handle on this. For example, I was in Woodbridge a few days ago and everyone in the shops appeared to have masks and about half of those walking in the street wore one. I had a mask ready if I had chosen to go in anywhere and felt rather self-conscious for not wearing it outside. Woodbridge is more Telegraph-land than Guardian-country, so the Telegraph's ranting about masks and libertarianism is perhaps not shared by its local readership.

We had a riverside walk at Beccles yesterday - all outside, very little mask-wearing (which I was fine with in such a situation). A very different group of people compared to Woodbridge but everyone, save one group of teenagers from a broads boat, being incredibly polite and careful about distancing. It was quite uplifting.


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> One thing that really worries me is that the UK/US don't have or scrapped most provision for vulnerable adults and/or adults with psychological disabilities. This means you have a lot of people who really need help and in many cases medication who aren't getting it, and remember learning problems or Psychological disabilities aren't obvious from a Facebook post.
> 
> Alternatively some are getting medication but that has side effects which can include learning difficulties or getting confused. It is not surprising that many end up on the streets or in this case, either not understanding or ignoring C-19 guidelines. Many will have heard our Glorious Leaders or someone in the media saying masks are pointless, and believed them, and with no assistance or support they will just wander off to the shops without a mask or go to the privvy and not wash their hands because they've been told there's no point.
> 
> One reason for the workshops in Germany is that it means people have someone to help them understand or at the very least make sure they are kept reasonably safe from harm.



At least you have workshops for those who need them. Those in the US with special needs in group homes or a supervised setting are at the mercy of whatever those homes have arranged as protection against covid. I suspect that what has happened in many nursing homes in the US could also be taking place in homes for the specials needs. Although we aren't hearing much about that. Probably supressed by Heir drumpf. I agree with you and did not mean to disagree with you, especially as I am a parent with a special needs adolescent. My only point was that most people out there don't fall into that category and therefore don't get a pass. Sadly, there is zero leadership in the US at the moment and there is not likely to be any for the foreseeable future. I am not up on the UK or elsewhere for that matter. But I'm acutely aware of what is happening here and it's scary. My apologies if I misinterpreted your comments.


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> No, just using the term stupid in a thoughtless manner.



Actually no. I used the word stupid to refer to all those people you see at the beach, in bars, parks who are congregating with no social distancing and no masks. That my friend is the pure definition of stupid.


----------



## Inertia (13 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> The mask wearing needs to be made mandatory or else it's a waste of time.Nobodys wearing them here,pubs were packed at weekend aswell.You can't get on a bus here without one,if you haven't got one it's a quid to buy or your not getting on.


Absolutely and it looks like its coming. 

What is bad, again, is the glacial pace it is taking to happen. If its going to happen, what is taking so long? The shops are already open!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Jul 2020)

Inertia said:


> Absolutely and it looks like its coming.
> 
> What is bad, again, is the glacial pace it is taking to happen. If its going to happen, what is taking so long? The shops are already open!



Yup, yet again, our government is late. 

Late to close schools. 
Late to lock down. 
Late to get PPE
Late on testing
Late on track and trace

And now late on masks.


----------



## Adam4868 (13 Jul 2020)

Inertia said:


> Absolutely and it looks like its coming.
> 
> What is bad, again, is the glacial pace it is taking to happen. If its going to happen, what is taking so long? The shops are already open!


The whole sh1tshow of this goverment is a discrace,Johnson on saying we need to be wearing masks then a couple of days later Gove saying no need,just trust peoples common sense.I seriously don't get it,I mean not that I'm biased against the Tories 😁 but what is this "nobody's going to tell me to wear one" Am I missing something or is there a downside to wearing them ?


----------



## Adam4868 (13 Jul 2020)

Should be a public information film.

View: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1282557932958343168?s=19


----------



## Andy in Germany (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> At least you have workshops for those who need them. Those in the US with special needs in group homes or a supervised setting are at the mercy of whatever those homes have arranged as protection against covid. I suspect that what has happened in many nursing homes in the US could also be taking place in homes for the specials needs. Although we aren't hearing much about that. Probably supressed by Heir drumpf. I agree with you and did not mean to disagree with you, especially as I am a parent with a special needs adolescent. My only point was that most people out there don't fall into that category and therefore don't get a pass. Sadly, there is zero leadership in the US at the moment and there is not likely to be any for the foreseeable future. I am not up on the UK or elsewhere for that matter. But I'm acutely aware of what is happening here and it's scary. My apologies if I misinterpreted your comments.



Sorry if I reacted too much too: I can be a bit protective of my clients. My rather poorly expressed concern was that because they see Germany going back to something like normal, they are relaxing and assuming the danger is past.

We have clients in protected accommodation, one of the largest centres for people with psychological issues in our state is in the same town. That one went into immediate lockdown in March and stayed that way until about a week ago. It's huge; the size of a village with, and it even has its own fire department, but still, it would have been a tough few months.

We had a C-19 case in a smaller organisation and they went into lockdown for two weeks. thankfully our clients recovered (hopefully).


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 Jul 2020)

Milzy said:


> Most people are asymptomatic, aren't you over reacting slightly?



Maybe he’s concerned enough for others that he doesn’t want to be an unnecessary transmission vector.


----------



## a.twiddler (13 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Should be a public information film.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1282557932958343168?s=19



So many people think they are a special case. "I'm not in a high risk age group/have no underlying medical condition/exercising my right to not wear a mask/etc/etc/ so I'll be all right." Well, see the above. People need to wise up. With the increasing knowledge of the unpredictability of the virus in individual cases, it is becoming apparent that_ anybody_ could be in a high risk group. Just assume anyone could have it, even with no symptoms, it's still infectious. Wash your hands. Wear a mask. Exercise social distancing. 

Just man up (or woman up) and grow some! (social responsibility, that is). It's not rocket science. For others if not for yourselves.
No more of this endless whining, I can't or won't do this that or the other because ... Just do it!


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 Jul 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> To be fair *many have learning difficulties *and at least a *couple didn't understand why they had to wear a mask in the first place.*





MntnMan62 said:


> I know *lots of people with learning difficulties* who have this thing pretty well figured out by now. *They can't escape the stupid moniker that easily...*





MntnMan62 said:


> Actually no. I used the word stupid to refer to all those people you see at the beach, in bars, parks who are congregating with no social distancing and no masks. That my friend is the pure definition of stupid.



I am glad that is what you meant and happy to admit I was confused by your wording in the reply to AiG.


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Andy in Germany said:


> Sorry if I reacted too much too: I can be a bit protective of my clients. My rather poorly expressed concern was that because they see Germany going back to something like normal, they are relaxing and assuming the danger is past.
> 
> We have clients in protected accommodation, one of the largest centres for people with psychological issues is in the same town. hat one went into immediate lockdown in March and stayed that way until about a week ago. It's huge; the size of a village with, and it even has its own fire department, but still, it would have been a tough few months.
> 
> We had a C-19 case in a smaller organisation and they went into lockdown for two weeks. thankfully our clients recovered.



No, you didn't over react at all. I didn't realize at first who your "clients" were. If anyone is guilty of poorly expressing themselves it's me. 

To shift the convo just a little bit, today drumpf was tweeting that everyone is lying about the covid-19 in order to sabatoge the economy and his -re-election. He's saying ..."the CDC, our doctors and Democrats are lying to keep the economy from coming back, which is about the election. I'm sick of it." Amazing that he's claiming Fauci and the CDC are politically motivated when all they are trying to do is save lives. In typical fashion HE is the one making it about the election. As far as drumpf is concerned, what's a few thousand more lives so long as I can get re-elected? But what makes this tweet so outrageous and yet fitting is that he is quoting Chuck Woolery, a game show host. drumpf won't listen to the experts, the scientists, the people who understand immunology and have spent their careers trying to save lives, but he will listen to a game show host. You can't make this stuff up if you tried.


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> No, you didn't over react at all. I didn't realize at first who your "clients" were. If anyone is guilty of poorly expressing themselves it's me.
> 
> To shift the convo just a little bit, today drumpf was tweeting that everyone is lying about the covid-19 in order to sabatoge the economy and his -re-election. He's saying ..."the CDC, our doctors and Democrats are lying to keep the economy from coming back, which is about the election. I'm sick of it." Amazing that he's claiming Fauci and the CDC are politically motivated when all they are trying to do is save lives. In typical fashion HE is the one making it about the election. As far as drumpf is concerned, what's a few thousand more lives so long as I can get re-elected? But what makes this tweet so outrageous and yet fitting is that he is quoting Chuck Woolery, a game show host. drumpf won't listen to the experts, the scientists, the people who understand immunology and have spent their careers trying to save lives, but he will listen to a game show host. You can't make this stuff up if you tried.



I hope that the people in charge of the Democratic campaign are building up all this evidence of his duplicity and downright lies and dishonesty and go in hard with it for the rest of the campaign. They have to fight fire with fire as the stakes are just too high for the US to let him "win" again.

The dirty tricks of him and his team to discredit Fauci are beneath contempt....at least by the standards of previous presidents, even Republican ones.


----------



## midlife (13 Jul 2020)

Masks mandatory in shops mandatory from next Friday, policed by the police...


----------



## tom73 (13 Jul 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53397617
 @Brompton Bruce
thank you know who


----------



## Rusty Nails (13 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Masks mandatory in shops mandatory from next Friday, policed by the police...



No they're not. Gove said so yesterday


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I hope that the people in charge of the Democratic campaign are building up all this evidence of his duplicity and downright lies and dishonesty and go in hard with it for the rest of the campaign. They have to fight fire with fire as the stakes are just too high for the US to let him "win" again.
> 
> The dirty tricks of him and his team to discredit Fauci are beneath contempt....at least by the standards of previous presidents, even Republican ones.



I've felt the same thing. That he needs to be beaten at his own game. And it's not like he isn't giving them a ton of material to use. I think the best example of a group hitting him below the belt is The Lincoln Project. These are some ads that they have been airing. The wonderful yet suprising thing is The Lincoln Project is by a group of Republicans who want drumpf out. My only question is why aren't the democrats doing something similar?


View: https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/campaign-ads-2020/the-lincoln-project-names--campaign-2020/2020/07/11/d8aa2d8e-3c8a-4b14-816e-f8204267e4f4_video.html



View: https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/campaign-ads-2020/the-lincoln-project-trumpisnotwell--campaign-2020/2020/07/11/6d0a3d1e-7749-48d1-a9b2-d3d75350d82f_video.html



View: https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/campaign-ads-2020/republican-voters-against-trump-not-my-proudest-moment--campaign-2020/2020/07/11/fa6f1eec-794e-4ea6-8829-17fb5e05e6f5_video.html?


This is some good stuff here.


----------



## tom73 (13 Jul 2020)

Bloody hell Lansley on newsnight and talking sense.


----------



## MntnMan62 (13 Jul 2020)

Yet another US non-believer dies from the coronavirus. They're dropping like flies. See? The Law of Natural Selection does work.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articl...just-hype-and-refusing-to-wear-face-masks.htm


----------



## Rocky (14 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53397617
> @Brompton Bruce
> thank you know who


Thanks!! It’s been a bit of a slog


----------



## MrGrumpy (14 Jul 2020)

Only saw one person since Friday not wearing a mask and he stuck out a mile from everyone else. Peer pressure will sort those whom can but refuse to wear a face covering.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (14 Jul 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Only saw one person since Friday not wearing a mask and he stuck out a mile from everyone else. Peer pressure will sort those whom can but refuse to wear a face covering.


Yes, I hope so.


----------



## Mo1959 (14 Jul 2020)

If they're going to do it, why wait 10 ten days? Surely most people have something in the house they can cover their face with right away!


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> If they're going to do it, why wait 10 ten days? Surely most people have something in the house they can cover their face with right away!


Maybe not, especially if they have skin problems and limited means, but a day or two would give them time to buy a £2 pure cotton mask from the pound shops.


----------



## Adam4868 (14 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Maybe not, especially if they have skin problems and limited means, but a day or two would give them time to buy a £2 pure cotton mask from the pound shops.


It's not a day or two though it's 10.Why not say right away and we'll hold of on the fines.Say until this Friday.


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> It's not a day or two though it's 10.Why not say right away and we'll hold of on the fines.Say until this Friday.


Because Boris is a shoot Muppet who still doesn't really believe masks help and doesn't want to upset Trump and the more confusing messages they put out then the more they can blame Joe Public for not doing as they're told when we hit new death records. If they have no strategy, they can't be blamed for having the wrong strategy.


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1282550755308732416?p=v


----------



## fossyant (14 Jul 2020)

So, I can't go into a supermarket, when it's quiet without a mask, but I can go sit in a busy hot sweaty pub without one ?

WTF.


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> So, I can't go into a supermarket, when it's quiet without a mask, but I can go sit in a busy hot sweaty pub without one ?
> 
> WTF.


How you gonna drink through a mask?

But like I said, keep 'em confused, keep 'em blameable.


----------



## fossyant (14 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> How you gonna drink through a mask?
> 
> But like I said, keep 'em confused, keep 'em blameable.



Who said I was eating or drinking in the pub ?  Might need the loo as the supermarket loo is shut. 👅


----------



## roubaixtuesday (14 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> So, I can't go into a supermarket, when it's quiet without a mask, but I can go sit in a busy hot sweaty pub without one ?
> 
> WTF.



This does actually make sense, I think. 

All activity brings some risk. 

Risk can be reduced, but not eliminated by wearing masks.

Masks are not possible in some settings, such as pubs and restaurants, but where they are possible, and make a worthwhile risk reduction, they should be worn ie inside in close proximity to others. 

Where I would take issue with this is priority. 

Why have we prioritised pubs over schools? Why restaurants over gyms? etc.


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> Who said I was eating or drinking in the pub ?  Might need the loo as the supermarket loo is shut. 👅


If the loo is the "busy hot sweaty" bit, I'd look for somewhere else with toilets!


----------



## fossyant (14 Jul 2020)

None of this makes sense - when things are bad, they are just getting worse. I guess no rules over masks in gyms then.


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Why have we prioritised pubs over schools? Why restaurants over gyms? etc.


Because Tim Martin gives more to the Tories than the National Union of Teachers.

Because eating KFC is better for public health than exercising at LA Fitness.

Are you Cummings round to Domonomics yet?


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> None of this makes sense - when things are bad, they are just getting worse. I guess no rules over masks in gyms then.


The way things are going, they'll probably make them compulsory but say the bottom edge of the mask must be above your eyebrows!


----------



## stowie (14 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Why have we prioritised pubs over schools?



Because we prefer getting pissed to educated? 

Realistically it is a total nightmare to get schools back to "normal". My daughter is attending because she is year 6, and they have year 5 as well as nursery attending (nursery are in another building). But in normal times there are 900 children on a small and compact site with no room for expansion. There are no expansive playing fields to put portacabins - they would have to go in the playground which is the only open space in the whole school. Then there are logistics such as lunch time. In normal times lunch times have to be hugely staggered to accommodate all the children in the dining hall - if you have to socially distance then the first lunch slot would have to be at 9:30 and the last just before the end of school! And that is primary school - secondary is even worse as the children have to move around classrooms - I cannot see how any kind of social distancing / cleaning could prevent COVID being transmitted from one class to another. The schools problem is structural and nothing is really going to help with this.

So the government have basically given up and are hoping that the situation is OK for schools to resume in September with no social distancing. 

Pubs on the other hand can limit their numbers quite easily and put into place social distancing measures based on lower numbers of customers.


----------



## flake99please (14 Jul 2020)

I had a complaint from someone who came to my workplace yesterday. Apparently it isn’t for me to suggest to a family of 4 chronic asthmatics (who can’t wear a face mask between them), that a full face visor would be acceptable. Neither is it my place to suggest that perhaps meandering around shops isn’t in the best Interests of their health given their medical condition & current epidemic situation.

The manager who had ‘the word’ with me then took exception to my pointing out their mask worn over their chin and not their mouth/nose. I despair sometimes


----------



## roubaixtuesday (14 Jul 2020)

stowie said:


> Because we prefer getting pissed to educated?
> 
> Realistically it is a total nightmare to get schools back to "normal". My daughter is attending because she is year 6, and they have year 5 as well as nursery attending (nursery are in another building). But in normal times there are 900 children on a small and compact site with no room for expansion. There are no expansive playing fields to put portacabins - they would have to go in the playground which is the only open space in the whole school. Then there are logistics such as lunch time. In normal times lunch times have to be hugely staggered to accommodate all the children in the dining hall - if you have to socially distance then the first lunch slot would have to be at 9:30 and the last just before the end of school! And that is primary school - secondary is even worse as the children have to move around classrooms - I cannot see how any kind of social distancing / cleaning could prevent COVID being transmitted from one class to another. The schools problem is structural and nothing is really going to help with this.
> 
> ...



Well, I agree that schools with social distancing are almost certainly not practical (though I'm not an expert, and it may well be there are ways to do this)

If so, we should be maximising the pupils in school, and prioritising that, so doing that *before* opening up other areas of society, in my opinon.

And we need a strategy for *how* to open up schools without distancing. That could be, just for instance, intensive testing of teachers and pupils to reduce risk without social distancing. There may be other ideas.


----------



## Inertia (14 Jul 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Only saw one person since Friday not wearing a mask and he stuck out a mile from everyone else. Peer pressure will sort those whom can but refuse to wear a face covering.


The complete reverse here, which is probably why clarification and direction is needed. Any politician Trusting an entire nation to show common sense is an idiot, or trying to pass the buck*.

*these are not mutually exclusive


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (14 Jul 2020)

A colleague just passed away . Suicide after becoming ill with Covid.


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Well, I agree that schools with social distancing are almost certainly not practical (though I'm not an expert, and it may well be there are ways to do this)
> 
> If so, we should be maximising the pupils in school, and prioritising that, so doing that *before* opening up other areas of society, in my opinon.


Rent the pubs as classrooms?



> And we need a strategy for *how* to open up schools without distancing. That could be, just for instance, intensive testing of teachers and pupils to reduce risk without social distancing. There may be other ideas.


I don't think that's feasible until we have a less invasive test than the swab scratching deep. Doing that repeatedly to children seems likely to traumatise them for years.


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2020)

flake99please said:


> The manager who had ‘the word’ with me then took exception to my pointing out their mask worn over their chin and not their mouth/nose. I despair sometimes


"Lions led by donkeys" is more than this country's motto :-(


----------



## tom73 (14 Jul 2020)

Restaurants and pubs face coverings is quite easy.
Do what Japan do they only remove them once they are sat at a table and replace them when at any point they leave the table.
Such as going to toilet or using the wider public areas of the building.
Which both limits the risk and is practical.
What interest me is the number of placers that do temperature checks on the door. But don't want to encourage the use the face coverings thinking the first somehow is going to help keep staff and customers safe.


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Restaurants and pubs face coverings is quite easy.
> Do want Japan they only remove them once they are sat a table and replace them when at any point they leave the table.
> Such as going to toilet or using the wider public areas of the building.
> Which both limits the risk and is practical.


But doesn't that mean "people are likely to Place them down on a infected surface then put them on and end up breathing the virus in or adjusting them with unclean hands" like someone shared in https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5910320 ?



tom73 said:


> What interest me is the number of placers that do temperature checks on the door. But don't want to encourage the use the face coverings thinking the first somehow is going to help keep staff and customers safe.


Where's doing that? I've not been checked at a door yet. I've had to take my own temperature to check it's still just hay fever!


----------



## tom73 (14 Jul 2020)

Boy the flat earth lot are out in force today. The total anti mask rubbish on twitter is totally bonkers even the radio phone in this morning which is not known for being too wacko. Was in melt down about it some just need to get a grip, some just need it explaining in a clear and simple way. But some are just way on the other side they'd be funny if this was not so life and death. 
How anyone can real believe they stop you breathing god knows.


----------



## tom73 (14 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> But doesn't that mean "people are likely to Place them down on a infected surface then put them on and end up breathing the virus in or adjusting them with unclean hands" like someone shared in https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5910320 ?
> Where's doing that? I've not been checked at a door yet. I've had to take my own temperature to check it's still just hay fever!


Very funny point score why don't you.
Much of the talk and public understanding then was expecting to wear and use them in the same way as in clinical settings and to the same standard which is impossible to do in social settings. leading to over thinking it and forgetting the basics which is what I have a problem about. Now most of the talk as moved and simpler face coverings message has gone mainstream.With clear simple messaging it's easy for anyone to understand how to use a face covering to do it safely and for simple source control it's not rocket science. Which is what this is all about it's not complicated most know how to use hankie. 

As for temperature checks quite a few pubs , restaurants and hairdressers being interviewed locally about what measures they had put in place. All included them as a measure I've also seen some going it.


----------



## chriswoody (14 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Well, I agree that schools with social distancing are almost certainly not practical (though I'm not an expert, and it may well be there are ways to do this)
> 
> If so, we should be maximising the pupils in school, and prioritising that, so doing that *before* opening up other areas of society, in my opinon.
> 
> And we need a strategy for *how* to open up schools without distancing. That could be, just for instance, intensive testing of teachers and pupils to reduce risk without social distancing. There may be other ideas.



Here in Germany schools have been opened since early May. It started with a phased in approach, whereby only certain year groups were allowed to return and slowly over a number of weeks all year groups were allowed back. Schools are running at 50% capacity at the moment, so only half classes while the other half stay at home and complete work at home. Classes are divided into A and B groups and either attend alternate days, or Monday - Wednesday lunch for A group and Wednesday lunch to Friday for B group.

The other way that Social distancing is managed is through the use of classrooms for kids. So unlike English schools where kids rotate around the school to different classes every hour, here the kids are static in one room all day and the teachers come to them. Break times are also managed quite strictly to cut down on the movement of people around the school.

I'm not aware of any testing regimes though, over and above those already in pace here. My family alone is involved with three different schools (My wife and I teach in different schools and my kids attend a third different school) and we've never been offered testing of any sort.

It's not perfect, but a recent study and report in Saxony is showing that schools are probably not a source of infection and authorities here are pondering about fully opening schools when they re-open after the summer holidays in August.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/german-study-covid-19-infection-rate-schools-saxony


----------



## stowie (14 Jul 2020)

chriswoody said:


> he other way that Social distancing is managed is through the use of classrooms for kids. So unlike English schools where kids rotate around the school to different classes every hour, here the kids are static in one room all day and the teachers come to them. Break times are also managed quite strictly to cut down on the movement of people around the school.



That seems a sensible solution to the problem. Although a potential nightmare for childcare for parents returning from furlough etc.

It also helps with the other issue - if classes are made smaller for social distancing (even if there is space) then the number of teachers required increases and how can that be managed?



chriswoody said:


> Here in Germany schools have been opened since early May. It started with a phased in approach, whereby only certain year groups were allowed to return and slowly over a number of weeks all year groups were allowed back. Schools are running at 50% capacity at the moment, so only half classes while the other half stay at home and complete work at home. Classes are divided into A and B groups and either attend alternate days, or Monday - Wednesday lunch for A group and Wednesday lunch to Friday for B group.



In primary schools the classes are static as part of the COVID restrictions where my daughter did previously go to other classes in streamed subjects such as maths and English.

But in secondary schools it is impossible to stay in one class. Chemistry lessons need labs, as does Physics and IT / Computer type classes. Even languages often need equipment that is not available in every class. This needs rotation of classes.


----------



## fossyant (14 Jul 2020)

Just reading an article that says a recent rise in new covid cases has been in 16-25 year olds in South Liverpool. 

My son is currently doing deliveries for Dominoes after his normal working day. He's had massive orders for pizzas in the local area and it's obvious the 'youngsters' are having large parties - the other night, delivery for 10 pizzas and 6 sides, two young girls come to the door to collect it, and he could see a big group in the house. 

This virus isn't going away.


----------



## MntnMan62 (14 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> Just reading an article that says a recent rise in new covid cases has been in 16-25 year olds in South Liverpool.
> 
> My son is currently doing deliveries for Dominoes after his normal working day. He's had massive orders for pizzas in the local area and it's obvious the 'youngsters' are having large parties - the other night, delivery for 10 pizzas and 6 sides, two young girls come to the door to collect it, and he could see a big group in the house.
> 
> This virus isn't going away.



It could go away. Unfortunately humans are showing just how ridiculously stupid they can be. Not that we needed any further evidence after the past 200,000 years.


----------



## Julia9054 (14 Jul 2020)

chriswoody said:


> The other way that Social distancing is managed is through the use of classrooms for kids. So unlike English schools where kids rotate around the school to different classes every hour, here the kids are static in one room all day and the teachers come to them. Break times are also managed quite strictly to cut down on the movement of people around the school.


This is what is planned for English secondary schools in September. Pupils will be in year group bubbles with all subjects except those requiring a specialist room being taught in the same classroom and staggered break times. At my school, pupils will still come to science labs for their science lessons but no practical will be allowed - only teacher demonstration. This will require some considerable rewriting of schemes of work over the summer as our syllabus at key stage 3 is highly practical. Pupils will have exercise books but they will not be collected by the teacher for marking - all work requiring marking will be submitted electronically. We will also not be able to lend equipment so if a child forgets it’s pen, it’s tough.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (14 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Masks mandatory in shops mandatory from next Friday, policed by the police...




Has Cummings just remembered he's got a mate who can manufacture these?


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## Rocky (14 Jul 2020)

So....a study from the US shows that the more years of education a person has, the more likely they are to wear masks


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## gbb (14 Jul 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I’m finding it all a bit contradictory too. I now have to wear a face covering for a quick run through the supermarket, following the one way system and social distancing, yet next week I can go and sit in a restaurant or pub for a few hours.


Just had this conversation with my wife who sees the contradiction you do. But I see it quite clearly and it's all about (IMHO) risk reduction by small degrees whever it can be done. You obviously cant wear a mask having a pint but you can when visiting the shops (which are getting progressively and quickly busier)
Each little risk reduction might make an appreciable one when added to others. There are lots of contradictions but its feasible to wear one in the shops so why not. Mind you, all this PPE is going to blow recycling out of the water.


----------



## Rocky (14 Jul 2020)

gbb said:


> Mind you, all this PPE is going to blow recycling out of the water.


Not necessarily - I use an existing cycling buff and I have an old hanky to which I've attached some straps.......no new purchases have been made. When I need my next mask, I'm going to make it from an old t-shirt.


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Very funny point score why don't you.
> Much of the talk and public understanding then was expecting to wear and use them in the same way as in clinical settings


I'm tempted to be really funny and start panto season early ("oh no it wasn't") but I'm just glad you've changed your view.



tom73 said:


> As for temperature checks quite a few pubs , restaurants and hairdressers being interviewed locally about what measures they had put in place. All included them as a measure I've also seen some going it.


This almost tempts me to go to the pub just to see if I get temperature-checked. Maybe after I finish my latest prescription and am at less risk of bleeding everywhere which I suspect would really freak people out now


----------



## chriswoody (14 Jul 2020)

stowie said:


> That seems a sensible solution to the problem. Although a potential nightmare for childcare for parents returning from furlough etc.



It is a childcare nightmare here with the kids only directly attending school for 50% of the time. Ironically as a teacher, I'm classed as an emergency worker and my kids are eligible for emergency childcare, so they go to school on other days too and are supervised. 



stowie said:


> But in secondary schools it is impossible to stay in one class. Chemistry lessons need labs, as does Physics and IT / Computer type classes. Even languages often need equipment that is not available in every class. This needs rotation of classes.





Julia9054 said:


> This is what is planned for English secondary schools in September. Pupils will be in year group bubbles with all subjects except those requiring a specialist room being taught in the same classroom and staggered break times. At my school, pupils will still come to science labs for their science lessons but no practical will be allowed - only teacher demonstration. This will require some considerable rewriting of schemes of work over the summer as our syllabus at key stage 3 is highly practical. Pupils will have exercise books but they will not be collected by the teacher for marking - all work requiring marking will be submitted electronically. We will also not be able to lend equipment so if a child forgets it’s pen, it’s tough.



As Julia wrote above, secondary schools here in Germany are also able to remain static. Science lessons are barred from conducting experiments at the moment, so the teachers don't need to be teaching in specialist labs. As for computers, my wife's school has no computers at all and in my school, all the kids have their own laptops that they bring in, so it is possible for the kids to remain in one room all day. It's true that it won't work for every school, but it's all about reducing the risk where we can.

Another measure is the submission of seating plans for everyclassroom. So every single lesson we write down where every pupil was sat and the teacher in the room. We also strictly control where the pupils can play on any given day, this is then collated and sent to the local health authority every day, so if we do record an instance of Covid 19, then we can immediately trace the other pupils and adults who may have interacted with them.

Another interesting thing about all of this is the legislation that's been passed at county level, our school is liable for some pretty hefty fines if their found to be in breach of the rules and the county have been doing spot checks on schools to check for compliance.


----------



## Tenacious Sloth (14 Jul 2020)

chriswoody said:


> Another interesting thing about all of this is the legislation that's been passed at county level, our school is liable for some pretty hefty fines if *their* found to be in breach of the rules and the county have been doing spot checks on schools to check for compliance.



8/10 Must try harder.


----------



## Adam4868 (14 Jul 2020)

Classy....

View: https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1283044506275807233?s=19


----------



## a.twiddler (14 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Classy....
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1283044506275807233?s=19



I can't imagine Sir Desmond Swayne turning up at Aldi with a shopping bag. Probably got a housekeeper to deal with all that inconsequential stuff. No doubt be one of the first to complain when he runs out of loo roll for the sake of his alleged principles. Yet another Tory who will fight for his principles to the last drop of our blood. The shop sign in the other tweet sums it up in its last line. "Don't mistake inconvenience for oppression". Twit. Actually, pompous twit.


----------



## Adam4868 (14 Jul 2020)

a.twiddler said:


> I can't imagine Sir Desmond Swayne turning up at Aldi with a shopping bag. Probably got a housekeeper to deal with all that inconsequential stuff. No doubt be one of the first to complain when he runs out of loo roll for the sake of his alleged principles. Yet another Tory who will fight for his principles to the last drop of our blood. The shop sign in the other tweet sums it up in its last line. "Don't mistake inconvenience for oppression". Twit. Actually, pompous twit.


Strange as it is he's got history for wearing face coverings...


----------



## Inertia (14 Jul 2020)

I think the main thing stopping him from going shopping is, the thought of going shopping

If this is accurate, he used to be fairly flexible on restrictions

View: https://twitter.com/antartica81/status/1258318402881552386


----------



## Tanis8472 (15 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Classy....
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1283044506275807233?s=19




I'm not watching that


----------



## tom73 (15 Jul 2020)




----------



## srw (15 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The FL infection rate will rapidly rise to a peak, then it will rapidly fall away again. I very much doubt the shape of the infection graph from the point where cases begin to rapidly rise will be that different, apart from the timeline.


Midweek science update special!





Given everything we've learnt about how to suppress the disease since NY had its peak, there is no excuse for any region in the rich world to have a spike as big as that.


----------



## Julia9054 (15 Jul 2020)




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## tom73 (15 Jul 2020)

Global study shows half of covid patients scanned show cardiac abnormalities including ones with pre-existing heart disease. 
Scanning covid patients helped improve treatment in a third of patients who received them. 
On the flip side it yet again shows the long term effect of covid are no joke. 
https://nursingnotes.co.uk/wp-conte...with-COVID-19.pdf.pagespeed.ce.Fcj5D9XVRN.pdf


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## tom73 (15 Jul 2020)

Anyone who still believes face coverings don't work explain this one as they clearly do. 
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e2.htm?s_cid=mm6928e2_e&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM32906


----------



## GetAGrip (15 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> How you gonna drink through a mask?


Velcro flap?


----------



## mjr (15 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone who still believes face coverings don't work explain this one as they clearly do.
> https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e2.htm?s_cid=mm6928e2_e&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM32906


They will explain it as coronavirus being much less infectious than claimed, won't they?


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## mjr (15 Jul 2020)

oof!

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/forest_fr1ends/status/1283097940425428993


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## marinyork (15 Jul 2020)

Llama antibodies show promise as a theoretical treatment.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-07-13-engineered-llama-antibodies-neutralise-covid-19-virus


----------



## Slick (15 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Classy....
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1283044506275807233?s=19





Proof if proof were needed we need reform.


----------



## tom73 (15 Jul 2020)

So we had wear a mask say's Boris and law change maybe needed. Gove saying trust common sense and it's manners to wear one but then pictured not using one. Then a law change covering shops, a tweet from downing st with a new public health message showing a mask with a one way valve. Which make them pointless in preventing droplets. Then the Chancellor get's pictured shopping in one with a valve. So re-enforcing it's ok to use them. This on the back of Hancock saying masks are pointless in an office but work when out shopping. Sighting the time you wear one. But some train journeys take hours so that must be pointless then ? 

In the meantime they bring in extra conditions in Blackbrun due to rising cases which inc not wanting till next week and start wearing masks now. Not just that but it's required for all enclosed public placers. So using Matt's thinking masks only work when cases go up and covid is only about this week in Blackburn and only hangs out in shops when not in Blackburn. But then Leister which is still in lockdown it's fine to wait till next week to wear a mask but only in shops. 

So bang go's yet another clear public health message


----------



## Inertia (15 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> So we had wear a mask say's Boris and law change maybe needed. Gove saying trust common sense and it's manners to wear one but then pictured not using one. Then a law change covering shops, a tweet from downing st with a new public health message showing a mask with a one way valve. Which make them pointless in preventing droplets. Then the Chancellor get's pictured shopping in one with a valve. So re-enforcing it's ok to use them. This on the back of Hancock saying masks are pointless in an office but work when out shopping. Sighting the time you wear one. But some train journeys take hours so that must be pointless then ?
> 
> In the meantime they bring in extra conditions in Blackbrun due to rising cases which inc not wanting till next week and start wearing masks now. Not just that but it's required for all enclosed public placers. So using Matt's thinking masks only work when cases go up and covid is only about this week in Blackburn and only hangs out in shops when not in Blackburn. But then Leister which is still in lockdown it's fine to wait till next week to wear a mask but only in shops.
> 
> So bang go's yet another clear public health message


The mandatory date is 24 July, but people near me seem to be treating it as its safe to not wear masks till this magic date. 

I assume the delayed date is to give people time to get masks but Id have preferred a message of, we want you to wear masks NOW, but we wont start fining people till 24th to give you time.


----------



## marinyork (15 Jul 2020)

Inertia said:


> The mandatory date is 24 July, but people near me seem to be treating it as its safe to not wear masks till this magic date.
> 
> I assume the delayed date is to give people time to get masks but Id have preferred a message of, we want you to wear masks NOW, but we wont start fining people till 24th to give you time.



When I did the weekly shop yesterday, mask wearing jumped from 5% to 25%. It's not been that high since April.


----------



## Inertia (15 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> When I did the weekly shop yesterday, mask wearing jumped from 5% to 25%. It's not been that high since April.


Last week I saw a few. Today, in a E vans bike shop, I saw one other person wearing a mask.


----------



## steve292 (15 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> This on the back of Hancock saying masks are pointless in an office but work when out shopping.


Call me cynical if you will, but if you are mandated to wear one in a work setting they have to by law be supplied by the employer, and there is a legal requirement to provide training in there use.


----------



## marinyork (15 Jul 2020)

Inertia said:


> The mandatory date is 24 July, but people near me seem to be treating it as its safe to not wear masks till this magic date.
> 
> I assume the delayed date is to give people time to get masks but Id have preferred a message of, we want you to wear masks NOW, but we wont start fining people till 24th to give you time.



I think months ago, worries about supply and hoarding was a very real and present concern. Since that time it's been 'face coverings' rather than masks, which allows the mask supply to be maintained better. 

I do think the accompanying health message is poor. It should emphasize that virus circulation is low so any incremental gains really helps keep the virus at bay and face coverings is part of this. Secondly 70% of all cases are asymptomatic, in Jan-April it was thought 20-50%.

Not sure whether any of the government's recent thinking is influenced by Imperial group on R. It was 4 and they think it fell to a lower level after 'lockdown' of around 0.5 rather than 0.7 to 0.9. Again incremental gains, if this is true various additional measures to reduce R make a big difference over 2-3 months before the winter surge.


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## tom73 (15 Jul 2020)

Inertia said:


> The mandatory date is 24 July, but people near me seem to be treating it as its safe to not wear masks till this magic date.
> 
> I assume the delayed date is to give people time to get masks but Id have preferred a message of, we want you to wear masks NOW, but we wont start fining people till 24th to give you time.



Ive seen a small increase in mask use but still way down on what’s needed. A rapid clear pubic health campaign for a few days making it clear a simple face covering is fine. Would have given plenty of time to hit the ground running within days of being told. Then as you say from 24th fines start but no sadly we get more of if you can do this for a bit longer.


----------



## Tanis8472 (15 Jul 2020)

steve292 said:


> Call me cynical if you will, but if you are mandated to wear one in a work setting they have to by law be supplied by the employer, and there is a legal requirement to provide training in there use.



Afaik, it's not required by shop staff. Only shoppers.


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## IaninSheffield (15 Jul 2020)

With leaders accused of providing 'mixed messages' perhaps it behoves us to establish the risks for ourselves? Fear not, help is at hand:


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## steve292 (15 Jul 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Afaik, it's not required by shop staff. Only shoppers.


Exactly. No expense to the employer and no comeback for the staff.


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## classic33 (16 Jul 2020)

steve292 said:


> Exactly. No expense to the employer and no comeback for the staff.


And if a person relies on being able to read what is being said, how would that be possible with a mask being worn by shop staff. One small shop, near me, is replacing the masks with the face screens/visors for this reason.

It's something I'd never considered, facing the person I was talking to "square on" when answering them. Combine the number of times you might be looking, for the item requested, and answering at same time without even thinking it's odd. 

I


----------



## Slick (16 Jul 2020)

classic33 said:


> And if a person relies on being able to read what is being said, how would that be possible with a mask being worn by shop staff. One small shop, near me, is replacing the masks with the face screens/visors for this reason.
> 
> It's something I'd never considered, facing the person I was talking to "square on" when answering them. Combine the number of times you might be looking, for the item requested, and answering at same time without even thinking it's odd.
> 
> I


That is a big issue for some and I had to look into it for a work thing and the British Deaf Association have recommend masks with a clear plastic panel that allowed someone to see the lips moving. Not sure exactly how good they are or not but we will be using them for one class at least.


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## tom73 (16 Jul 2020)

steve292 said:


> Call me cynical if you will, but if you are mandated to wear one in a work setting they have to by law be supplied by the employer, and there is a legal requirement to provide training in there use.



Then you look for practical solutions to a problem it's not difficult. All placers of work have to be covid secure so you build it in to the planning all guidance makes it clear a face covering is not classed as PPE. Currently you have to allow staff who wish to wear one to do so just make them aware of how to use them. Which is exactly the same how to wear advice that's been given to the general public. A simple poster will do just in the same way hand washing , social distancing, coughing into your elbow and the rest are promoted. Any good company would see the benefit out way they cost. It will cost much more to have staff off or even worse a company shut down due to an outbreak. Some companies are getting branded ones and see it as extra work wear. Just look at placers that are required to use them as a condition of being able to open they find ways. 
Now if you mandated the use of clinical grade masks then they are PPE and so they needed a bit of extra work but then again this is not about clinical standard infection control so is not much more work the main issue would be the added costs and extra waste control. 
Normal H&S for employee pre covid that used a face mask they just carry on in the same way they did before.


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## Adam4868 (16 Jul 2020)

FFS...at least there clear on the masks ! 

View: https://twitter.com/AvaSantina/status/1283673408564334592?s=09


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## marinyork (16 Jul 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53426367

Strong calls for what others would deem 'unethical' trials where patient is infected with coronavirus.


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## Inertia (16 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> FFS...at least there clear on the masks !
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/AvaSantina/status/1283673408564334592?s=09



of ffs, clear as farking mud


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## Rezillo (16 Jul 2020)

Quite a balanced article by the FT on the coronavirus blame game to come. Even the comments section appears to have contributors who are at least sentient.

https://www.ft.com/content/aa53173b-eb39-4055-b112-0001c1f6de1b


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## mjr (16 Jul 2020)

Belgian virus expert (and member of their federal crisis management executive IIRC) placed under police protection due to threats from far right extremists. Summary report in French https://www.lavenir.net/cnt/dmf2020...arc-van-ranst-place-sous-protection-policiere and original in Flemish with annoying cookie popup https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/marc...are-plannen-uit-extreemrechtse-hoek~bab36071/


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## mjr (16 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> FFS...at least there clear on the masks !
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/AvaSantina/status/1283673408564334592?s=09



There are times when a simple "I don't know. I expect so. Let's wait for the detail to be decided and published." would be better than bluffing. But Johnson has appointed an exec full of "Ministers for Bluffing" now.


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## mjr (16 Jul 2020)

Has anyone pointed out that Chancellor Sunak was a bit daft to use a photo op of takeaway food to celebrate a vat cut that doesn't affect takeaway cold food, wearing a mask with an exhalation valve useless for protecting others?


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1283397170788478976?p=p


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## tom73 (16 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> FFS...at least there clear on the masks !
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/AvaSantina/status/1283673408564334592?s=09




So if it's a coffee shop inside a shop and you go for a take away you need a mask ? But if it's just a shop selling take away you don't ? Well that cleared that up. It's shop for FFS covid can't tell the difference unless i've missed that key bit of research. So now is official government advice if you want to stay covid free move into pret ?


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## Adam4868 (16 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> So if it's a coffee shop inside a shop and you go for a take away you need a mask ? But if it's just a shop selling take away you don't ? Well that cleared that up. It's shop for FFS covid can't tell the difference unless i've missed that key bit of research. So now is official government advice if you want to stay covid free move into pret ?


I've a important announcement,I've never been in a Pret.


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## PapaZita (16 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's shop for FFS covid can't tell the difference



It is confusing, and that interview was a poor attempt to clarify, on both sides. As much as I hate to admit it, I have some sympathy for the Business Secretary here. People, like this interviewer, seem to try to pick apart new rules and regulations to try to find reasons not to comply. What he seemed to be trying to say, was that although there might be times when the rule can’t be enforced (such as if the type of shop falls into some sort of grey area), it’s still a jolly good idea to wear a mask if you possibly can.


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## Inertia (16 Jul 2020)

PapaZita said:


> It is confusing, and that interview was a poor attempt to clarify, on both sides. As much as I hate to admit it, I have some sympathy for the Business Secretary here. People, like this interviewer, seem to try to pick apart new rules and regulations to try to find reasons not to comply. What he seemed to be trying to say, was that although there might be times when the rule can’t be enforced (such as if the type of shop falls into some sort of grey area), it’s still a jolly good idea to wear a mask if you possibly can.


I know what you mean but he didn’t even attempt to say that. he just tried to make out it was actually very simple and they (the gov) had been very clear.


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## Flick of the Elbow (16 Jul 2020)

Curiously, these challenges about coffee shops and the like don’t seem to have happened in Sturgeonland, where she made masks mandatory last week. People here are just getting on with it, it’s not been an issue. A clearer leadership style perhaps ?


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## marinyork (16 Jul 2020)

PapaZita said:


> It is confusing, and that interview was a poor attempt to clarify, on both sides. As much as I hate to admit it, I have some sympathy for the Business Secretary here. People, like this interviewer, seem to try to pick apart new rules and regulations to try to find reasons not to comply. What he seemed to be trying to say, was that although there might be times when the rule can’t be enforced (such as if the type of shop falls into some sort of grey area), it’s still a jolly good idea to wear a mask if you possibly can.



That's Kay Burley all over, it's why I don't watch it generally. She's famous for the 'five firemen' question years ago which epitomizes this. 

A GP has a weekly slot on her breakfast show where he talks in depth about Coronavirus and it's the best coverage on Sky in the morning. Kay Burley has interviewed him many times and mostly lets him get on with it and doesn't ask too many silly questions. The GP gets quite a long slot, I think about 5 mins.


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## PapaZita (16 Jul 2020)

Inertia said:


> I know what you mean but he didn’t even attempt to say that.



Hamstrung by the inability to concede that anything the government ever does might be slightly less than perfect? You wouldn’t expect to hear, “Look, we drew this legislation up in a hurry, it isn’t completely watertight, but it’s good enough.”


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## marinyork (16 Jul 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Curiously, these challenges about coffee shops and the like don’t seem to have happened in Sturgeonland, where she made masks mandatory last week. People here are just getting on with it, it’s not been an issue. A clearer leadership style perhaps ?



I'm not sure the obsession about the coffee shops is quite the issue people might think it might be.

My understanding is a proportion have opened for weeks for takeaway so got a feel for issues and how to keep people as safe as they can. Many OTHER coffee shops re-opened a week on 4th July or shortly after and have chosen to be takeaway only. Many other coffee shops are still closed even now. I can honestly see quite a few not reopening.


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## raleighnut (16 Jul 2020)

Me either and I've only once been in a 'Subway'


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## Adam4868 (16 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Me either and I've only once been in a 'Subway'


I prefer to live life on the edge....greasy spoon only 😁


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## marinyork (16 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Me either and I've only once been in a 'Subway'



I've never been in a subway, but they are open. 

On that note, the wetherspoons are one of the few vaguely busy pubs (wandering past).


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## tom73 (16 Jul 2020)

PapaZita said:


> Hamstrung by the inability to concede that anything the government ever does might be slightly less than perfect? You wouldn’t expect to hear, “Look, we drew this legislation up in a hurry, it isn’t completely watertight, but it’s good enough.”


He's the business security it's his job to know his dept came up with guidelines. Much of which say's the rules are the same as face covering use on public transport. Which is nothing new and not too different to understand. Even for a government minister. He made it a car crash interview. He just needed to say in shops yes unless you're eating in. Eating and drinking which is clearly covered in the public transport guidelines. The shop ones say for rules of use see public transport rules. But know he was trying to defend Gove and ended up giving the anti anything brigade more ammo. In turn making important public health message into nothing more than media fodder.


----------



## fossyant (16 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> There are times when a simple "I don't know. I expect so. Let's wait for the detail to be decided and published." would be better than bluffing. But Johnson has appointed an exec full of "Ministers for Bluffing" now.



The Ministry of Bluffing. Sound like another Harry Potter film. Pure fiction.


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## mjr (16 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Me either and I've only once been in a 'Subway'


I once went in a "Subway" with white-on-blue signs and I couldn't find the sales counter. Maybe the yellow and green ones are different?





(pic licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license. Attribution: David Stowell)


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## mjr (16 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> He's the business security it's his job to know his dept came up with guidelines. [...]


Why the fark isn't the Health Ministry doing it? The Business Ministry has obvious conflicted interests.


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## RoadRider400 (16 Jul 2020)

Fortunately I never had the desire to spend £2 for a coffee that I could make next door in the office for about 5 pence.


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## Beebo (16 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Classy....
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1283044506275807233?s=19



Imagine the monstrous imposition of having to wear a tie and jacket in Parliament. 

He doesn’t have a problem with that and probably thinks it’s a good idea as it keeps the riff raff out. Well Hopefully Compulsory masks will keep the nobbers out.


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## Rusty Nails (16 Jul 2020)

Although masks in shops are not mandatory here in Wales we have decided that we are going to wear them. I did so in Sainsbury's this morning and I reckon the take-up was less than 20%. None of the shop staff were wearing them.

One benefit is that my wife doesn't like wearing the mask and says it will put her off going into the city centre or out of town shopping centres to shop. I am gutted at no longer being asked to accompany her trawling round the shops.


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## numbnuts (16 Jul 2020)

Big changes in my local Sainsburys today, you were allowed to load your shopping onto the conveyor belt while the first shopper was being served, no disinfectant being used on said conveyor belt and they were taking cash, yet a week tomorrow we all have to wear masks


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## mjr (16 Jul 2020)

numbnuts said:


> Big changes in my local Sainsburys today, you were allowed to load your shopping onto the conveyor belt while the first shopper was being served, no disinfectant being used on said conveyor belt and they were taking cash, yet a week tomorrow we all have to wear masks


We have to wear masks else the cost of extra disinfectant will ruin Sainsbury! Won't someone think of the shareholders!


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## Salty seadog (17 Jul 2020)

Vallance is a bit annoyed.

Tired of being Boris Johnson's patsy, Patrick Vallance fights back

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-back?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard


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## marinyork (17 Jul 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Vallance is a bit annoyed.
> 
> Tired of being Boris Johnson's patsy, Patrick Vallance fights back
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-back?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard



Vallance talked for two hours and different bits were picked up by different media outlets for different angles, some picked up on the lockdown, some picked up on masks, some on winter preparations and some on the working from home. 

It's a bit of a shame because Vallance's comments are by far the most worth listening to on coronavirus of any civil servant or government member on tv, even more than the whitty, because he tends to be more precise and quote evidence semi-directly or directly. For example people would find what he said about masks very interesting. His comments on what a 'wave' is are very illuminating on why government/whitty/valance phrase things the way they do (which unfortunately doesn't help the public health message).


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## tom73 (17 Jul 2020)

Has Boris basically said he's going all out to open things up just in time for the run to winter?
which is the real danger point and how's he going to find the extra staff to do all this local level tract and trace, which is going to be needed if local control measures are to be done quick enough? 
3 billon quid extra for NHS winter funding really will not touch the sides.


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## mjr (17 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Has Boris basically said he's going all out to open things up just in time for the run to winter?


Seems so. Is that to get the deaths and economic damage to hide Brexit?

He also passed the blame of local lockdowns to councils!

And told people to stop cycling and walking and get back on the buses.

Still no clarity on face coverings either.

What was the point of that?


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (17 Jul 2020)

Glad to hear that at last the powers that be in England seem to be acknowledging the role for travel restrictions in dealing with outbreaks. In Annan it was an immediate key part of the response but for weeks now the residents of most English hot spot areas have been free to wander the country as they like


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## PK99 (17 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> So, I can't go into a supermarket, when it's quiet without a mask, but I can go sit in a busy hot sweaty pub without one ?
> 
> WTF.



I was in a pub watching the footie the other evening. Social distancing impeccable. All tables booked/occupied @10% of capacity as tables well spaced and no standing allowed. Drinks brought to table on a tray, not touched by server. Door handles to loo disinfected every 15 minutes.

Have just come out of a quiet supermarket. Staff protective clothing and distancing impeccable. Customer social distancing, dubious at best because of milling around Handling/checking of unwrapped fruit and veg frequent. 

Pub was safer than shop.


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## pawl (17 Jul 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Glad to hear that at last the powers that be in England seem to be acknowledging the role for travel restrictions in dealing with outbreaks. In Annan it was an immediate key part of the response but for weeks now the residents of most English hot spot areas have been free to wander the country as they like




Being sassenach i Cant say that Scotland’s first minister is not my favourite person ,but I do applaud the way she has managed the virus in Scotland I could not understand the way travel restrictions were lifted in England to travel as you say to over crowded Hot spots . Well done


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## marinyork (17 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Seems so. Is that to get the deaths and economic damage to hide Brexit?



Apparently there's been an all party call on coronavirus and getting people back to work. 

One of the things I heard off a reporter, which may be nothing in it is the government are wanting to get people back to offices to support restaurants/eateries/cafes/city centres and so on. 

I've been into the city centre four times briefly since March. On the last visit I did a bit of research by going to eyesight distance of a most of the cafes. One chain was open for takeaway and very quiet, another chain closed all, one chain closed all but one and had an actual cafe open (80% of the capacity was outside and inside stuff removed). An extremely busy independent was closed. Basically although I don't have a business bone in my body, it strikes me that without large reserves these coffee shops are basically toast and in some cases sadly probably are already. Some have put fairly elaborate safety measures in place even for takeaway and yet still no business. I think it was 10 cafes I looked at. At present probably not enough business to support maybe just even 1 out of those 10 without government loans/subsidies/whatever.


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## deptfordmarmoset (17 Jul 2020)

It appears that Johnson has not even grasped the basics of support bubbles in his advice about grandparents and childminding. Ah, yes, he just makes up his own rules.


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## mjr (17 Jul 2020)

The latest from https://www.cartooningforpeace.org/ includes this subtle cutter.


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## mjr (17 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Some have put fairly elaborate safety measures in place even for takeaway and yet still no business. I think it was 10 cafes I looked at. At present probably not enough business to support maybe just even 1 out of those 10 without government loans/subsidies/whatever.


They need to tell those of us faraway what they've done, else we won't come in because we don't have any other reason to be there now we work at home. I'm not clear what most of the local food sellers are doing except for the coffee and food trailers that have set up at various places because I can be confident there that I won't be in an enclosed space because they don't have any!

I've been into a nearby city once since lockdown and that was to get a takeaway from the truly wonderful Waffle House who have been very clear on social networks IMO. I hope they are rewarded with survival.


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## marinyork (17 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> They need to tell those of us faraway what they've done, else we won't come in because we don't have any other reason to be there now we work at home. I'm not clear what most of the local food sellers are doing except for the coffee and food trailers that have set up at various places because I can be confident there that I won't be in an enclosed space because they don't have any!
> 
> I've been into a nearby city once since lockdown and that was to get a takeaway from the truly wonderful Waffle House who have been very clear on social networks IMO. I hope they are rewarded with survival.



The government I don't think are really aiming at most of the people on this board. It's getting others back to work in city centres.

I think it really depends how you think the other people come to decisions. Most of the people on this thread are locked away in houses far, far away from the virus. Even in 2020 there isn't necessarily the will for many small businesses or large ones with generic pages for stores to put the sort of information people would want up. I suspect there's a downside to that as well, if someone saw photos of some of the coffee shops I've seen from outside, I think they wouldn't go anywhere near them not for reasons of safety but the experience not being the same etc!

Numbers wise I think the social media side would only talk to a small steady core of customers, which may instill confidence.

I think how many people come to return to things is by normalisation and several boring low key conversations/views/experiences of friends/acquaintances. Whilst everyone is still at home those conversations are happening at a very slow rate to tempt enough people out. 

From the coffee shop point of view, I think people might be surprised by the current low level of risk largely derived from so few using them + combined with safety measures. For many there'll be no experience there, almost no reason to and most importantly many of the people they want to go with they can't see/can't persuade. And many closed.


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## marinyork (17 Jul 2020)

Whitty and Valance on now and was a fair bit of talk about the public understanding reasons in public health messages.

Phin said the discovery of asymtomatic patients the most important thing in terms of policy change. Vallance said genomics very important and used tracing in/out of hospitals and importing/seeding from Italy, Spain and France. Whitty said blood clot discovery and recovery trial was important and came up with critical finding that dexamethasone significantly reduces mortality with severe disease.


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## tom73 (17 Jul 2020)

He also made clear the importance of public buying into public health messaging. Which has to improve as it's not good enough.


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## marinyork (17 Jul 2020)

Transport advice changes:

You can help control coronavirus and travel safely by walking and cycling, if you can. Where this is not possible, use public transport or drive. You can also help control coronavirus by:


working from home where possible
washing or sanitising your hands regularly
keeping your distance when you travel, where possible
avoiding the busiest routes, as well as busy times like the rush hour

and private cars subtly changes:-

Plan your route, including any breaks, before setting out. Routes may be different as local areas make changes to enable social distancing.

Check that your vehicle is safe and roadworthy if you haven’t used it for several weeks.

People from a household or support bubble can travel together in a vehicle.

You should wear a face covering in an enclosed space where social distancing isn’t possible and where you will come into contact with people outside your household or support bubble. Take care to use face coverings properly.

Consider making a list of items to take with you.

Only travel into, out of and within areas under local lockdown if your travel is essential.

----------------------------------------------
Think the latter may get another amend.


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## marinyork (17 Jul 2020)

Rochdale and Wakefield councils asking people to do things beyond government rules and recommendations, around masks and other things.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (17 Jul 2020)




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## marinyork (18 Jul 2020)

Boris getting savaged in some papers and praised in others for 'significant return to normality by Christmas'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-53453086

This country is split right down the middle again.


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## Slick (18 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Boris getting savaged in some papers and praised in others for 'significant return to normality by Christmas'
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-53453086
> 
> This country is split right down the middle again.


At some point you have to accept that he has a bit more access to information and data about how this is progressing than your average CC user and there is a chance that he's actually right. Here's hoping anyway and I suppose it's down to us all to ensure we don't become one of their acceptable casualties on the way back to normality.


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## srw (18 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> has a bit more access to information and data about how this is progressing than your average CC user and there is a chance that he's actually right


He doesn't, and he's not. HTH.


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## Slick (18 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> He doesn't, and he's not. HTH.


No it's not particularly helpful especially as it's quite clear he does.


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## Bromptonaut (18 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> No it's not particularly helpful especially as it's quite clear he does.



It's just possible he might theoretically have such access. There is however literally nothing in his past roles or the current one which suggests he has the slightest interest in engaging with detail.


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## Slick (18 Jul 2020)

Possible? Theoretically? Really?


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (18 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> No it's not particularly helpful especially as it's quite clear he does.



I agree. I mean, he's aware there is a report into the possibility of a second wave this winter. He just hasn't read it.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/to...-on-second-wave-of-coronavirus-pmqs-1-6746998


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## marinyork (18 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> At some point you have to accept that he has a bit more access to information and data about how this is progressing than your average CC user and there is a chance that he's actually right. Here's hoping anyway and I suppose it's down to us all to ensure we don't become one of their acceptable casualties on the way back to normality.



I was commenting how society seems very split on the matter. It's then very difficult to implement things. 

Whether Boris is right or not, the comments you made, would not be out of place around February or March earlier this year. On the day of Boris's comments and the day before his chief medical officer and chief scientific advisor in particular were busy giving evidence to two committees saying that social distancing would be around for a long time and that the virus would probably be around (in some form) for years. One was also discussing the semantics of how he described a second wave, but said that the winter outbreak which could be much larger was part of the first wave and he hadn't spoken to a single person that thought there wouldn't be an outbreak in the winter. At various times recently talk has been preparation for winter and around September the virus might start to pick up again with November it really kicking off. Further back in time it's been suggested February would be the worst month for transmission. In recent days there's been commentary on keeping an eye on the southern hemisphere currently and seeing what can be learnt about winter transmission for us northern hemispherers.

There are a number of deus ex machinas discussed at great length previously about the virus going away. I just don't think what the world, even lay people have learnt about the virus the last six months supports this in any way. Even in Italy now they think there may be a second winter wave and that country is as 1-peaker ish as it gets!


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## tom73 (18 Jul 2020)

If Boris has the the right data then Vallance and Whitty must be reading them upside down then. Over the past few day's they both have made it clear they don't see things the same as Boris. The last few day's have also made it clear as mud that the government scientists and the government no longer see eye to eye on anything. Even the "The guided by science" message Boris publicly dumped yesterday.


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## marinyork (18 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> Possible? Theoretically? Really?



The mental equivalent for Boris of in the cellar, in the dark, with no stairs and a sign beware of the leopard. All the while magic thighs cummings his chief adviser telling him that he demands a total absence of solid facts.


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## Julia9054 (18 Jul 2020)

I’ve no doubt Johnson has access to the data and to advisers. It’s what he chooses to do with the information and who‘s best interests he has in mind when he makes his decisions is what I call into question


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## Slick (18 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I’ve no doubt Johnson has access to the data and to advisers. It’s what he chooses to do with the information and who‘s best interests he has in mind when he makes his decisions is what I call into question


Of that there is no doubt, which is why I said it's up to us to ensure we don't become one of his acceptable statistics.


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## srw (18 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I’ve no doubt Johnson has access to the data and to advisers. It’s what he chooses to do with the information and who‘s best interests he has in mind when he makes his decisions is what I call into question


The thing is that I rather doubt he has access to any more information than the rest of us. Throughout this crisis it's been clear that government information has been shockingly poor at best. 

Outside the ONS, which is doing a very good job and which is very transparent, we seem to be incapable as a country of combining information from multiple sources in a reliable way. The revelation this week that PHE has been misrecording cause of death is just the latest example. 

You add to that the fact that Johnson has given up even pretending to listen to advisors who might give him information he doesn't like and I'm more convinced than ever that he's winging it using publicly available information. 

Getting good data isn't a tricky job if you go about in the right way. You need people who are able to specify data precisely and who have the balls and the clout to make data suppliers provide it. And you need data suppliers who are culturally attuned enough and who have enough resource capacity to collect it well and supply it on time. 

Despite throwing billions at furlough and loan schemes we don't seem to have bothered spending the mere millions good quality information would cost.


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## Rezillo (18 Jul 2020)

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/patrick-vallance-boris-johnson_uk_5f10c66ec5b6cec246c06c9e

Interesting take on the consequences of home working that may explain to some extent why Johnson is at odds with or at least keeping quiet over Vallance's views.


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## tom73 (18 Jul 2020)

We've not even been spending the millions on the ones who need to know what to do with it and act on it. 
Another thing yesterday Vallance and Whitty was happy to point out and who to blame. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53444951


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## Rezillo (18 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> The revelation this week that PHE has been misrecording cause of death is just the latest example.



I believe the statistical consequences of that will turn out to be minor; the political ones another matter.

If large numbers of people testing positive had later died of non-covid causes unassociated with their infection, then their deaths would not be part of the excess death figures but just those of people who would have died anyway, be it car crash, heart conditions, accidents or whatever. Establishing statistical links to flu or in this case covid, is one of the major reasons for compiling excess death figures in the first place, especially where deaths occur outside a hospital environment. In the case of flu, naff-all testing is done outside hospitals but we still accept the thousands of deaths recorded to other conditions during a flu season as caused by flu simply based on the stats.

The excess death figures track the covid figures in proportion remarkably well, indicating the majority of excess deaths are related to covid in some way.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (18 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> The revelation this week that PHE has been misrecording cause of death



Hardly a revelation. It's been known about and discussed for weeks and cannot have anything more than a minor impact.


----------



## midlife (18 Jul 2020)

According to the FAQ you can pay by credit card at the checkout

https://www.bankruptbikeparts.co.uk/FAQ


----------



## Bromptonaut (18 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> Possible? Theoretically? Really?



It's possible, but by no means certain, that government has access to more data than is published. Knowing stuff and not publishing absent considerations such as National Security looks very much like concealment for party advantage and will come back and bite. My primary point however is that Johnson's entire history is of somebody with no time for detail or the intricacies of actually delivering the broad brush waffle piffle that characterises his public utterances. 

See the 'Oven Ready' Brexit deal or the London Garden Bridge.


----------



## marinyork (18 Jul 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53437555

BBC piece about the spit tests now trials in Southampton have got going.

capacity for 300,000 spit tests a day. 10 million a day would be needed and be 1 billion a month!


----------



## marinyork (18 Jul 2020)

Some tech may be here in coming months, albeit too late for wave 1

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...rus-antibody-tests-after-trial-success-report


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## Ming the Merciless (18 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> According to the FAQ you can pay by credit card at the checkout
> 
> https://www.bankruptbikeparts.co.uk/FAQ



Didn’t know they had something to do with Corona!


----------



## srw (18 Jul 2020)

Rezillo said:


> The excess death figures track the covid figures in proportion remarkably well, indicating the majority of excess deaths are related to covid in some way.



Absolutely. I've probably said something like this before in the thread. The only reliable indicator of how many people have been killed by the pandemic is total all cause excess mortality. 

Here, courtesy of the CMI of the UK actuarial profession, is the best illustration of what's been happening. 










roubaixtuesday said:


> Hardly a revelation. It's been known about and discussed for weeks


Really? I follow this sort of thing quite closely for professional reasons, and I don't remember hearing about it. I could have missed it, of course. I didn't mean to cite it as an example of a meaningful problem with a useful statistic - the PHE data is only useful as a broad trend indicator - but as an example of the woeful lack of care with which data collection has been treated in the crisis.


----------



## midlife (18 Jul 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Didn’t know they had something to do with Corona!



Oops! Sorry wrong thread.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (18 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> Really? I follow this sort of thing quite closely for professional reasons, and I don't remember hearing about it.



Just 'frinstance


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1278627304202272768


----------



## srw (18 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Just 'frinstance
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1278627304202272768



So that's a couple of weeks! It also explains why I missed it - I was gearing up to go on holiday, and once away had almost no internet access.


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## tom73 (18 Jul 2020)

All over my Christmas ? 
That's all down to how alert people are say Shapps, glad that's been cleared up then. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-on-how-alert-people-grant-shapps-coronavirus


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## deptfordmarmoset (18 Jul 2020)

Boris Bounce.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> All over my Christmas ?
> That's all down to how alert people are say Shapps, glad that's been cleared up then.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-on-how-alert-people-grant-shapps-coronavirus


Alertness test: Would you buy a used car off Shapps? (If you answered no, you're displaying signs of alertness.)


----------



## gbb (18 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> All over my Christmas ?
> That's all down to how alert people are say Shapps, glad that's been cleared up then.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-on-how-alert-people-grant-shapps-coronavirus


Sadly, while the government is optimistic in its outlook, I suspect they havn't set foot in many workplaces and seen the real world. That'd soon give them a dose of the reality I see out there. Theres plenty of cases cited in response to my work observations in here...and plenty of similar observations from friends, colleagues and service engineers I've spoken to, the problem lays squarely with stupid people who refuse to comply...almost en masse in factories in the food supply chain. Some of that responsibility also lays with employers who seem to want to manage 'at arms length'.....ie put all the measures in place but do the minimum to make people comply.
We've now had 22 confirmed cases in two weeks, some before...and they're just the ones we know about....and STILL, the fookin idiots wont social distance when left to their own devices and STILL sneer at the guy who is charged with making staff comply. 
Sort these places and people out and the infection rate would likely plummet.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (18 Jul 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Boris Bounce.
> View attachment 536759



No two ways about it, very depressing chart, that. 

I genuinely don't understand what govt is about at the moment. Cases seem to be rising, and we're simultaneously _reducing_ restrictions. 

And promising stadiums to open by October.

And it'll all be over by Christmas. 

Their actions, and the data seem to guarantee their promises will fail. I sincerely hope I'm missing something here.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> No two ways about it, very depressing chart, that.
> 
> I genuinely don't understand what govt is about at the moment. Cases seem to be rising, and we're simultaneously _reducing_ restrictions.
> 
> ...


I assume Boris is beginning to panic about his legacy. Having dithered and delayed thousands to their deaths, he's now got enormous debts and a stalled economy, with a manifesto to inflict further damage to the economy.


----------



## Rezillo (18 Jul 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I assume Boris is beginning to panic about his legacy. Having dithered and delayed thousands to their deaths, he's now got enormous debts and a stalled economy, with a manifesto to inflict further damage to the economy.



...and a Russia report that may claim Russia was funding/supporting pro-Brexit pressure groups and disinformation sources because it saw Brexit as damaging to the UK and EU and therefor a good thing and an easy win as far as Russia was concerned. 

My guess, anyway - it would explain Johnson's desperate attempts to suppress the report and install an idiot patsy as committee head. That failed, hence the sudden barrage of deflecting publicity on Russia's other meddling before the report comes out next week.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Jul 2020)

Rezillo said:


> ...and a Russia report that may claim Russia was funding/supporting pro-Brexit pressure groups and disinformation sources because it saw Brexit as damaging to the UK and EU and therefor a good thing and an easy win as far as Russia was concerned.
> 
> My guess, anyway - it would explain Johnson's desperate attempts to suppress the report and install an idiot patsy as committee head. That failed, hence the sudden barrage of deflecting publicity on Russia's other meddling before the report comes out next week.


I doubt that we'll learn all that much from the report because the annexe won't get published. And it won't get published for reasons of ''national security'' - exactly the reason why it should be published.


----------



## Adam4868 (18 Jul 2020)

I have no doubt there was Russian influence in the election as well as the Brexit vote.
But lets send a journalist rounds to Corbyns house and deflect/dead cat it.


----------



## marinyork (19 Jul 2020)

More Boris comments

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53460714


----------



## Slick (19 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> More Boris comments
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53460714


That's the kind of biased reporting that would get blasted if it was regarding anyone else as you have to go to the end of the article to get what he actually said.

"I can't abandon that tool any more than I would abandon a nuclear deterrent. But it is like a nuclear deterrent, I certainly don't want to use it. And nor do I think we will be in that position again," he said.

I'm not a supporter by any means and I've posted on a few different subjects that I think he's a buffoon but I still think the above is fair enough.


----------



## marinyork (19 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> That's the kind of biased reporting that would get blasted if it was regarding anyone else as you have to go to the end of the article to get what he actually said.
> 
> "I can't abandon that tool any more than I would abandon a nuclear deterrent. But it is like a nuclear deterrent, I certainly don't want to use it. And nor do I think we will be in that position again," he said.
> 
> I'm not a supporter by any means and I've posted on a few different subjects that I think he's a buffoon but I still think the above is fair enough.



I disagree with your comments the other day and today that go in the obtuse direction. There's a link to the telegraph article at the top. For some reason you seem far more interested in what Boris says his opinion is (as opposed to policy) than what Vallance or Whitty say. I can't say I share that interest but you're welcome to tune in and enjoy as much as you want.

I said more Boris comments.

Present evidence as to why this is inaccurate. Boris commented. Where is your evidence he didn't? Boris made a very large set of comments recently and this is adding some more. Present evidence that 'more' is incorrect i.e. he hasn't said anything recently.

I don't think it is helpful in any way comparing the virus's likelyhood of coming back and possible reactions to that with nuclear weapons.

It's trivial that someone wouldn't want a national lockdown back. The mechanics of a national lockdown are rather different and more complicated in some ways than local ones which also have problems. It was speculated at the time the government wanted one for London to have a more local lockdown. That didn't happen. Results from local restrictions around the world were very mixed e.g
Italy and more recent examples are more positive.

I do wonder whether Boris and Matt are so positive because of the antibody kits and spit tests set to come in before winter which would be very major advances. Btw Vallance also commented on national measures saying there was a risk of them being needed in winter.


----------



## Slick (19 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> I disagree with your comments the other day and today that go in the obtuse direction. There's a link to the telegraph article at the top. For some reason you seem far more interested in what Boris says his opinion is (as opposed to policy) than what Vallance or Whitty say. I can't say I share that interest but you're welcome to tune in and enjoy as much as you want.
> 
> I said more Boris comments.
> 
> ...


I commented on the link you provided and stand by them. He didn't compare possible reactions to nuclear weapons.


----------



## Inertia (19 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> I commented on the link you provided and stand by them. He didn't compare possible reactions to nuclear weapons.


Whilst I understand your point and he isn’t directly comparing, the analogy is unhelpful IMO As it puts the comparison in people’s minds. Unlike a nuclear deterrent its actually something he may have to use rather than something you believe you never will have to. A nuclear deterrent is the solution itself, whereas the threat of a lockdown is not. 

Id rather he didn't make statements like he believes it wont be necessary as it means he is putting pressure on himself, not to call one even, if it may be needed.


----------



## Adam4868 (19 Jul 2020)

Never mind 50,000 dead and the main news is all about Russia,China and oops almost forgot a pic of his son.


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## srw (19 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> That's the kind of biased reporting that would get blasted if it was regarding anyone else as you have to go to the end of the article to get what he actually said.


Maybe it's been edited since you posted, but that comment is in the second paragraph. 

It's a model of unbiased, factual reporting. You get Johnson and Raab giving us their usual optimism, it's made very clear that Johnson's comments were in the context of an interview to a friendly newspaper, and Nandy and Vallance provide the alternative point of view.


----------



## srw (19 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Never mind 50,000 dead and the main news is all about Russia,China and oops almost forgot a pic of his son.


We passed 50,000 dead weeks ago.


----------



## Adam4868 (19 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> We passed 50,000 dead weeks ago.


Your point ? If there is one


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## srw (19 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Your point ? If there is one


"50,000 dead" isn't news. UK Coronavirus continues to dominate the news. China's repression and Russia's attempt to subvert the UK's democracy are important stories. Johnson's baby is both a human interest story and a reminder of his ability to distract cynically.


----------



## Adam4868 (19 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> "50,000 dead" isn't news. UK Coronavirus continues to dominate the news. China's repression and Russia's attempt to subvert the UK's democracy are important stories. Johnson's baby is both a human interest story and a reminder of his ability to distract cynically.


As I said then,your right it isnt news...although it should be.Russia subverting the UKs democracy has been important for quite a while if you didn't notice.They wasn't so keen to want to acknowledge this before the election though ?
Same for China's repression and human rights in general,how long have we turned a blind eye ?


----------



## srw (19 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The FL infection rate will rapidly rise to a peak, then it will rapidly fall away again. I very much doubt the shape of the infection graph from the point where cases begin to rapidly rise will be that different, apart from the timeline.


This prediction is looking weaker by the day.


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## midlife (19 Jul 2020)

I would have thought a contact tracing centre would have been pretty covid secure?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-53465160


----------



## mjr (19 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> I would have thought a contact tracing centre would have been pretty covid secure?
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-53465160


It's the blind tracing the blind! Contact tracing a contact tracing centre is going to be a bit meta.


----------



## Slick (19 Jul 2020)

Inertia said:


> Whilst I understand your point and he isn’t directly comparing, the analogy is unhelpful IMO As it puts the comparison in people’s minds. Unlike a nuclear deterrent its actually something he may have to use rather than something you believe you never will have to. A nuclear deterrent is the solution itself, whereas the threat of a lockdown is not.
> 
> Id rather he didn't make statements like he believes it wont be necessary as it means he is putting pressure on himself, not to call one even, if it may be needed.


Your first point was my only point despite some taking the nip, well that and the fact they were trying to construct a split with the science when there was none and I still think it's a fair enough statement and don't doubt for a single second the same mistakes would be avoided if a second lockdown was required. We should all know by now there is a risk, of course there is but all Boris said was that he didn't think we would be in that position again, which is not the same as saying there won't be one.


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## tom73 (20 Jul 2020)

Yet more track and trace problems. 

Only find about 50% of contacts in Blackburn which is not near enough the numbers you need to deal with outbreaks. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53463068
DOHS now admits it's never did data protection impact assessment (DPIA) for track and trace. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53466471
Baroness Harding sure is earning her money after all it's not like she's got form on this ..... oh 
Sadly it's just another mess up that adds to lack of public confidence in the whole process.


----------



## marinyork (20 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> I would have thought a contact tracing centre would have been pretty covid secure?
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-53465160



I actually find it reassuring that they aren't following track and trace slow prodedures as such and just recommending everyone to get tested at a large site. Seems the sensible thing rather than having chain after chain for the same site.


----------



## marinyork (20 Jul 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53467022

More potential good news along with the antibody tests and saliva tests.

Interferon beta in nebulised form shows striking results that had to be disclosed to the stock market and not published properly yet. Looks like it's going to a larger trial.


----------



## Shreds (20 Jul 2020)

A mask is primarily to protect others from you, not vice versa.

Most masks are so poor or poorly worn that they do not prevent droplets with the virus from others entering your mouth, nose or eyes.

I am also appalled at the nunber of people who tell you they have had it. Like some sort of badge of honour?

Maybe they have, as it varies in severity, but they should have it tattooed on their forehead so you can maintain a safe distance.


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2020)

been away from this thread for a while...
What the cc expert opinion on progress towards a vaccine ?


----------



## Slick (20 Jul 2020)

Shreds said:


> A mask is primarily to protect others from you, not vice versa.
> 
> Most masks are so poor or poorly worn that they do not prevent droplets with the virus from others entering your mouth, nose or eyes.
> 
> ...


Round here, everyone who has ever had a sniffle from around October last year reckoned they have had it.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Jul 2020)

kingrollo said:


> been away from this thread for a while...
> What the cc expert opinion on progress towards a vaccine ?



Drug Development:

Phase I: Safety and biological effect (immune response in this case) in a small number of subjects
Phase 2: Initial efficacy in a larger number of subjects, assurance of the correct dose.
Phase 3: Efficacy and safety in a large number of subjects to justify marketing the treatment.

For rapid developments, Phase 2 and 3 can be run together where the risk/benefit is justifiable. That applies here, at least to the frontrunners.

It's been reported that the Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaccine will publish peer reviewed Phase I data very soon, maybe today. As Phase 2/3 trials have already started, we can expect the results to at least be encouraging enough to justify that investment (and good enough to allow regulators to approve that phase 2/3 trial)

Other developments are at a similar stage but perhaps at least 3 months behind, maybe more.

Phase 3 results depend on sufficient people on the placebo arm going down with the disease - it is "event driven" in the parlance. Only then will you know how much protection the active arm has engendered, by measuring the difference. You also need sufficient subjects exposed to the vaccine to assure its safety. Manufacture is being done "at risk" ahead of the phase 3 readout to reduce lead time if successful.
A description of the Phase 2/3 trial is available here https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04400838 
Observers seem to believe an efficacy readout may be available late this year, though this depends on being able to chase the virus around the world - you need to recruit subjects where the virus is active. Of course once proven to work you also need to actually vaccinate the population - a significant logistical effort.

If this one fails, add more time for the next to come through. It may also be active enough to help, but not active enough to solve the problem. And of course, no-one yet knows how long immunity will last if it does work. And no-one can be certain any of these will work, though the very broad range of different approaches to vaccine development being taken is encouraging.

There's quite a bit of noise at the moment about the potential ethics of "challenge" trials, where subjects are vaccinated then deliberately infected with COVID, to reduce timelines. Given the lack of virulence against younger people, and the huge impact on their wellbeing through social distancing, this could be an ethically acceptable way to accelerate things, particularly if the initial trials are negative and timelines stretch out.

How effective a vaccine will be depends both on how good it is biologically, but also on takeup - you need a very large proportion to engender herd immunity. Signs in Western countries on this are rather depressing - terrifyingly large proportions of the population say they wouldn't take a vaccine. Such is the age we live in.

If that's tl;dr then my summary would be

_Early results are encouraging but not definitive. It's possible definitive results will be out on the fastest candidate this year, but first vaccinations are unlikely to be before the end of this year. It could be much longer, and is not guaranteed at all, though most scientists are cautiously optimistic._


----------



## marinyork (20 Jul 2020)

kingrollo said:


> been away from this thread for a while...
> What the cc expert opinion on progress towards a vaccine ?



And you haven't missed much.

There isn't expert opinion on a vaccine, just people who read stories that are drowned out in the noise on tv.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/n...vaccine-tracker-how-close-are-we-to-a-vaccine

A government minister said today that a vaccine would be 'after winter', a good while ago the coordinator of UK vaccines said the earliest would be January and that was quite some time ago and I'd be interested if there's an update on that as I know they have made some media appearances the last week. Articles/commentary on after phase 3 trials are complete suggest summer 2021-Spring 2022.

Other related commentary to a vaccine is caution. Fauci said recently he expects immunity (and especially antibody immunity) to coronavirus to last between 3 months and a year, based on other coronaviruses. Taken from this people are saying that a vaccine will likely require a booster and possibly every year. That might be wrong, but it's being cautious. There's also talk about a vaccine offering partial immunity, for example stopping people getting pneumonia but they still get the virus. There has been a lot of caution saying that people aren't assuming there will be a vaccine. Other comments have said if there was a vaccine the virus will still be around for some years (posing a deadly threat to the third world and a lot of this commentary is based on 1 year immunity).

The Oxford vaccine the preliminary results are published in the lancet today (I haven't read them). The most interesting bit for me was it's been reported that there are some T cell reactions in the body and not just antibody ones.

Nobody has any idea at this stage what level of antibodies/T cells means immunity or partial immunity to the virus. This has led to calls the last two weeks to deliberately infect volunteers, so called 'challenge trials' to speed up the process (and thereby potentially save hundreds of thousands of lives worldwide).

A lot of recent vaccine commentary has also been around seasonal flu and concern there that people might get both at the same time.

--------------------
The highly speculative bit on vaccines is there doesn't seem to be much coordination around the globe. The UK is saying this morning it's got options of 3 different vaccines that use completely different methods. I wonder in all this chaos whether in 2021 whether they'll be multiple companies flogging their wares and 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th choice vaccines that governments scramble and fight over or put a punt in to try and give bits of their population as opposed to nothing.

I don't think me or you will be getting a vaccine any time soon even if one comes along. There are too many people with asthma, there are too many people with all sorts of long term health conditions. There are too many vulnerable people in other countries. It's been speculated before that it might at first be offered to certain health workers and those over 80.


----------



## marinyork (20 Jul 2020)

As it happens following on from some of the stuff mentioned and not mentioned, from this morning...

*Different vaccines might be needed for different groups of people, says vaccine taskforce chief*
*Kate Bingham*, chair of the UK vaccine taskforce, told the Today programme this morning that there is unlikely to be a single coronavirus vaccine that will suit everyone. She explained:


> What we are doing is identifying the most promising vaccines across the different categories, or different types of vaccine, so that we can be sure that we do have a vaccine in case one of those actually proves to be both safe and effective.
> It’s unlikely to be a single vaccine for everybody.
> We may well need different vaccines for different groups of people.


----------



## marinyork (20 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> Round here, everyone who has ever had a sniffle from around October last year reckoned they have had it.



Not October, here people say December.

This winter the antibody kits might settle that (although we might be in the nightmare scenario of those few that did have it last winter the antibodies have already vanished, which was a frustration on this tech months ago because if you knew that you could then pinpoint the people and do T cell research on them).


----------



## Slick (20 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Not October, here people say December.
> 
> This winter the antibody kits might settle that (although we might be in the nightmare scenario of those few that did have it last winter the antibodies have already vanished, which was a frustration on this tech months ago because if you knew that you could then pinpoint the people and do T cell research on them).


Honestly, the people that I know who made the claim had no worse than a cold but I get your point of an opportunity missed.


----------



## tom73 (20 Jul 2020)

Lockdown in Leicester look's like it's working as number come down. But Blackburn with Darwen numbers are rising looking like it's the new hot spot.


----------



## marinyork (20 Jul 2020)

Slick said:


> Honestly, the people that I know who made the claim had no worse than a cold but I get your point of an opportunity missed.



The vast majority of them won't have had it. My father had four covid-19 tests over a couple of months and all negative, including two where the medics who'd seen a lot of people were somewhat worried.

Do you think this is affecting peoples' behaviour and how?

I would still be very interested to have an antibody test as if I had it the most likely date was in February. I'm attempting to shield parents. That said I'm in an age group that it's been speculated on some studies don't produce antibodies so I'd expect it to come up negative for time elapsed and that. Still curious. For me antibody positive doesn't change anything because you can't go around behaving in a silly way. 

When mass testing comes this winter to distinguish, I think that'll change the views of a lot of people. 

70% of people will never know they had it unless they have a test. It's far more likely you have met more people who have had it and had no symptoms than those claiming they probably had it.


----------



## Slick (20 Jul 2020)

I'm not sure if it's changed their behaviour or not, I think it's more a case of what they don't know they make up and without being disparaging as we all have different circumstances, there is a bit of hysteria as well.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Drug Development:
> 
> Phase I: Safety and biological effect (immune response in this case) in a small number of subjects
> Phase 2: Initial efficacy in a larger number of subjects, assurance of the correct dose.
> ...



Study published in Lancet this afternoon:
https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140-6736(20)31604-4

Company press release:
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-c...-in-all-participants-in-phase-i-ii-trial.html

Looks so far, so good, but still early days. Fingers crossed for the longevity of response and phase 3 efficacy. Brazil and South Africa are in the phase 3, which is great for the trial, though not so good for the wider populations there in the short term.


----------



## tom73 (20 Jul 2020)

Looking good so fair not without side effects though but they look mild and treatable only the wider trial will say for sure if this is going to work. Some time to go yet all we can do is wait and hope it go's well.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Looking good so fair not without side effects though but they look mild and treatable only the wider trial will say for sure if this is going to work. Some time to go yet all we can do is wait and hope it go's well.



The side effects piece is interesting. 

They say they deliberately chose a dose sufficiently high they expected these side effects with the quid pro quo of a faster immune response to enable rapid immunity in the face of a potentially exploding pandemic.


----------



## marinyork (20 Jul 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The side effects piece is interesting.
> 
> They say they deliberately chose a dose sufficiently high they expected these side effects with the quid pro quo of a faster immune response to enable rapid immunity in the face of a potentially exploding pandemic.



If this vaccine fails, commentary by people that know what they talk about says the research will provide useful information as to the level of response in the body needed to get protection (in humans). 

I'm still not clear which vaccines the 500 000 UK wanted volunteers will be taking.


----------



## marinyork (20 Jul 2020)

Pollard has just been on. Sounded happiest about the T cell response. 9000 had the Oxford vaccine so far.

Kate Bingham now saying middle of next year. But maybe this year. Her version of life returning to 'normal' being reported as Easter 2021.

Horton sounded the happiest of anyone. Results of phase 3 quoted as end of this year.


----------



## marinyork (21 Jul 2020)

More commentary on length of living with the virus and how quickly things will get back to 'normal'. Clue, not by christmas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53488142


----------



## MntnMan62 (21 Jul 2020)

Sadly I think that is true. Even though a vaccine will likely not last long and will require shots every year at least much like the flu shot, hopefully that will cut down the numbers of deaths seen. 615,000 dead worldwide in 8 months and it wasn't even everywhere for much of that.


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## Adam4868 (21 Jul 2020)

Sorry it's just that it's Covid and cycling related.....he's a fecking charmer isn't he.

View: https://twitter.com/roadcc/status/1285533798000726016?s=19


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Sorry it's just that it's Covid and cycling related.....he's a fecking charmer isn't he.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/roadcc/status/1285533798000726016?s=19




Well that's a lie. What a surprise. IDS is unspeakably loathsome. 

An alternative... You're more likely to be driven to suicide by my benefits policy

https://www.theguardian.com/society...ide-numbers-not-true-figure-says-watchdog-nao


----------



## Toshiba Boy (21 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Sorry it's just that it's Covid and cycling related.....he's a fecking charmer isn't he.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/roadcc/status/1285533798000726016?s=19



Indeed, even by the low standards of most right wing Tories, he is a particularly loathsome specimen. 

When I heard him say that on a radio interview, in addition to the obvious repugnance at the comparison used, it also crossed my little mind that if I were to be injured, or worse, out on my bike, as far as my limited medical knowledge goes, this would not mean I could well "transfer" those injuries (or worse) to friends and family, or, indeed, anyone else within two metres of me. What a complete kn**head.


----------



## MntnMan62 (21 Jul 2020)

*Coronavirus Cases:*
15,008,648 
view by country
*Deaths:*
616,516
*Recovered:*
9,013,391

Well, we did it. Worldometers says we have achieved 15 million cases (likely many more than that) and over 600,000 dead. The US has contributed over 4 million cases to those numbers and quickly approaching 145,000 dead. And with no end in sight. 

I have to ask mr. drumpf: Are we winning yet?


----------



## raleighnut (22 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Sorry it's just that it's Covid and cycling related.....he's a fecking charmer isn't he.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/roadcc/status/1285533798000726016?s=19



Tory tosser


----------



## marinyork (22 Jul 2020)

Study in Delhi, similar to those done in a few other cities elsewhere, suggests 23% of the population of that city have had the virus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ple-in-delhi-have-had-coronavirus-study-finds


----------



## marinyork (22 Jul 2020)

Story behind a mechanical study on the risks of singing and playing instruments with breath.

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/jul/22/sing-funnel-covid-19-lab-hoping-declare-singing-safe


----------



## johnblack (22 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Study in Delhi, similar to those done in a few other cities elsewhere, suggests 23% of the population of that city have had the virus.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ple-in-delhi-have-had-coronavirus-study-finds


6 million cases with reported deaths at 3,700, that's a v low death rate.


----------



## fossyant (22 Jul 2020)

Some reports about localised CV19 outbreaks in Spain - really not worth travelling. also report about British woman testing positive in Lanzarote - 9 people now self isolating.

So that's her and nine other's holiday ruined - is it worth the stress ?


----------



## PK99 (22 Jul 2020)

johnblack said:


> 6 million cases with reported deaths at 3,700, that's a v low death rate.



Age profile of population may be relevant. 
Very small % population over 60.


----------



## marinyork (22 Jul 2020)

johnblack said:


> 6 million cases with reported deaths at 3,700, that's a v low death rate.



It's not accurate.

In the UK and other countries estimates have been for every test confirmed case there are 7-27 other cases. ONS and other work for the UK suggests it's somewhere around 15.

As PK99 suggests some countries and even cities have very young populations. In terms of deaths, excess deaths in many countries and how it's recorded vary.


----------



## Beebo (22 Jul 2020)

PK99 said:


> Age profile of population may be relevant.
> Very small % population over 60.


But a very high % of Asians. Who are meant to be affected more seriously.


----------



## mjr (22 Jul 2020)

France decides to follow UK not Belgium and others by refusing to give all its resident a mask. Bizarrely, it seems they subsidise wasteful and in-demand surgical masks but not cloth coverings. Report in French at https://www.france24.com/fr/2020072...s-pour-tous-une-option-rejetée-par-l-exécutif


----------



## Levo-Lon (22 Jul 2020)

It was so nice to see thousands lining the streets mask free shoulder to shoulder for Jack Charltons funeral..fookwits

Liverpool again , don't come to the ground.. Ffs sake CANCEL the celebration..your expecting football fans to be rational and obey instruction


----------



## johnblack (22 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's not accurate.
> 
> In the UK and other countries estimates have been for every test confirmed case there are 7-27 other cases. ONS and other work for the UK suggests it's somewhere around 15.
> 
> As PK99 suggests some countries and even cities have very young populations. In terms of deaths, excess deaths in many countries and how it's recorded vary.


Which part isn't accurate, the recorded deaths or the amount of cases that's been suggested in the study?


----------



## tom73 (22 Jul 2020)

Still looking for face coverings or fancy making one plenty of help on this site. Plus a list of groups making them for the community. 
https://www.bigcommunitysew.co.uk


----------



## MntnMan62 (22 Jul 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> It was so nice to see thousands lining the streets mask free shoulder to shoulder for Jack Charltons funeral..fookwits
> 
> Liverpool again , don't come to the ground.. Ffs sake CANCEL the celebration..your expecting football fans to be rational and obey instruction



Wow. Just look at what is happening in the US. It's because of this exact same kind of behavior. We are the example NOT to follow. I'd say people are really doing their best to exceed the 1 million mark for deaths on the planet. Humans. Their own worst enemy.


----------



## bitsandbobs (22 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> France decides to follow UK not Belgium and others by refusing to give all its resident a mask. Bizarrely, it seems they subsidise wasteful and in-demand surgical masks but not cloth coverings. Report in French at https://www.france24.com/fr/20200722-covid-19-en-france-les-masques-gratuits-pour-tous-une-option-rejetée-par-l-exécutif



By the time the Belgian authorities had actually managed to get supplies of masks, they'd been widely available in supermarkets for a while. The ones I've had and have are a mix of supermarket purchase and ones I received from my employer. I wonder how many people actually went to the effort of getting an "official" one.


----------



## marinyork (22 Jul 2020)

johnblack said:


> Which part isn't accurate, the recorded deaths or the amount of cases that's been suggested in the study?



The number of people who have tested positive for the virus. Many more have had it.

The antibody testing will be.


----------



## johnblack (22 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> The number of people who have tested positive for the virus. Many more have had it.
> 
> The antibody testing will be.


So the virus is probably more infectious but mainly asymptomatic and so has a far far lower mortality rate?


----------



## marinyork (22 Jul 2020)

johnblack said:


> So the virus is probably more infectious but mainly asymptomatic and so has a far far lower mortality rate?



The virus is very infectious, natural R is now believed to be 4.0. At the start of the virus in the UK we were debating whether it was 2.5 and Italy was jumping up and down saying it was 3, this is terrible. It's 4.0

Similarly at the start of the pandemic asymptomatic cases were quoted as 20%, then 20 to 80% with experts saying the upper bound was very unlikely to be that high. It was revised upwards to 40 to 50%. Then it was proved it was 70%.

Mortality rate in the developed world, I haven't seen research recently but reckoned to be 1%. Far lower than the 'headline' numbees for the UK.

45,000 deaths in the UK and 7% of antibody positive comes out at 1% as it happens.

The cost for survivors of ICU and even a minority will be large. Potentially hundreds of thousands requiring treatments and change in quality of life for months/years/permanently.


----------



## mjr (22 Jul 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> By the time the Belgian authorities had actually managed to get supplies of masks, they'd been widely available in supermarkets for a while. The ones I've had and have are a mix of supermarket purchase and ones I received from my employer. I wonder how many people actually went to the effort of getting an "official" one.


I think some communes were going door-to-door distributing them, daytimes and evenings. It seems a bit odd that distribution fell to the lowest level of government - with all the variation and postcode lottery that results - but I guess they had the most people on the streets already.


----------



## mjr (22 Jul 2020)

gov.uk estimate R possibly above 1 in London and SW England. Only NE & Yorkshire are estimated as likely clearly below 1.0 and the ZOE/KCL tracker estimates they've got the most current cases.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#latest-r-number-and-growth-rate

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data


----------



## srw (22 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> gov.uk estimate R possibly above 1 in London and SW England.


But given very small numbers, the estimate is unreliable - and R ceases to be a particularly useful stat.


----------



## a.twiddler (22 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> But given very small numbers, the estimate is unreliable - and R ceases to be a particularly useful stat.


Well, just give it a little time. If it is over 1, the numbers will increase. We can't afford to be complacent.


----------



## srw (22 Jul 2020)

a.twiddler said:


> Well, just give it a little time. If it is over 1, the numbers will increase. We can't afford to be complacent.


If the number of infections is very small (and it is), and R is very slightly over 1 (which is the top end of estimate - the central estimate is still clearly below 1) then we can't be complacent but we can know that the risk is small and will remain small for some time - as long as people persist with social distancing and mask wearing to keep the R number within touching distance of 1. The problem we had in March was that the number of infections was much larger than anyone thought, and no-one was social distancing or wearing a mask. And we knew very little about the disease.


----------



## raleighnut (22 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> If the number of infections is very small (and it is), and R is very slightly over 1 (which is the top end of estimate - the central estimate is still clearly below 1) then we can't be complacent but we can know that the risk is small and will remain small for some time - as long as people persist with social distancing and mask wearing to keep the R number within touching distance of 1. The problem we had in March was that the number of infections was much larger than anyone thought, and no-one was social distancing or wearing a mask. And we knew very little about the disease.


Don't forget this all probably started with 1 person, the so called 'patient zero'.


----------



## srw (22 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Don't forget this all probably started with 1 person, the so called 'patient zero'.


In the UK, if memory serves, they've traced something like 1100 separate introductions.

It's a bugger of a disease because it can be really nasty if you catch it, it spreads like wildfire if you don't take basic precautions and sits around being infectious for a week before you show any symptoms. But if people take basic precautions - handwashing, staying away from others and wearing masks - its spread is considerably slowed.


----------



## marinyork (22 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Don't forget this all probably started with 1 person, the so called 'patient zero'.



There was a supposed patient uno in Italy. Evidence from the sewers in Turin and Milan suggests that the virus was circulating in northern Italy around two months before patient uno - even if he was a superspreader, it's just that he alerted the authorities to them having an unbelievably gigantic problem. Evidence in China suggests it was around a month before the Chinese government said it was officially there. In France whether it's the case of not there was a test after someone died in December suggesting they had coronavirus. It's now generally accepted the virus was around in the UK in January.

In most of these cases we're talking around a couple of months of the virus circulating before a noticeable scary explosion in cases.

That's not to be complacent, but hopefully our chaotic track and trace system and keeping an eye on meat packing factories, nursing homes, dense housing and a few other settings will see only localised outbreaks the next month or so.


----------



## fossyant (22 Jul 2020)

I currently don't know what care home residents life is going to be like. MIL needs 24/7 care, but is 100% there mentally, her body is knackered. She has seen some of the family at a window recently, that's it. Can't be a good way to spend your last few years.


----------



## Slick (22 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> There was a supposed patient uno in Italy. Evidence from the sewers in Turin and Milan suggests that the virus was circulating in northern Italy around two months before patient uno - even if he was a superspreader, it's just that he alerted the authorities to them having an unbelievably gigantic problem. Evidence in China suggests it was around a month before the Chinese government said it was officially there. In France whether it's the case of not there was a test after someone died in December suggesting they had coronavirus. It's now generally accepted the virus was around in the UK in January.
> 
> In most of these cases we're talking around a couple of months of the virus circulating before a noticeable scary explosion in cases.
> 
> That's not to be complacent, but hopefully our chaotic track and trace system and keeping an eye on meat packing factories, nursing homes, dense housing and a few other settings will see only localised outbreaks the next month or so.


There were 5 businesses identified in the recent spate of cases here, there were 4 pubs and 1 shop which I thought was pretty indicative of the danger zones here.


----------



## Levo-Lon (22 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> I currently don't know what care home residents life is going to be like. MIL needs 24/7 care, but is 100% there mentally, her body is knackered. She has seen some of the family at a window recently, that's it. Can't be a good way to spend your last few years.




It's awful for residents, our organisation has opened up a fair bit but I personally think they should have maintained the lock... People are way too casual.
We have visitors wandering into the building ignoring all the instructions to gel and wash..
Then when you tell them off it's like ,oh sorry I didn't think it applies to us..

I had one visiting arse tell me they wasn't breathing in my direction when I told them they weren't allowed in the room with me!!
I was repairing a fitting, so visitors must stay out of the room..I tell ya its a fookin joke and older people are the biggest offenders


----------



## PK99 (22 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Don't forget this all probably started with 1 person, the so called 'patient zero'.



Not so in the U.K..


----------



## fossyant (22 Jul 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> It's awful for residents, our organisation has opened up a fair bit but I personally think they should have maintained the lock... People are way too casual.
> We have visitors wandering into the building ignoring all the instructions to gel and wash..
> Then when you tell them off it's like ,oh sorry I didn't think it applies to us..
> 
> ...



Still on lock down for MIL, which is good in a way. If she got this, she'd be dead very fast. We all stayed away from her at Christmas as we all had a nasty run of flu type illness - I stayed in the corridor ! The home has had cases, but it seems it's been from 'hospital discharges'. Fortunately, nothing on the 'nursing floor' from what we know, but they tell us nothing - we only know as a relative has a job in the home at the moment.

So scarey. MIL is currently in fine fettle, nearly died 18 months ago - she's been in rude health since being in a nursing home, despite some short comings with the home, she'd be dead had she been at her old house


----------



## fossyant (22 Jul 2020)

Levo-Lon said:


> I was repairing a fitting, so visitors must stay out of the room..I tell ya its a fookin joke and older people are the biggest offenders



It is, I don't think they get how serious this is, MIL doesn't but she is 'protected'. 

I'll admit, I was like 'oh it's a nasty virus that get's you a bit worse than flu' back in January....nope. I soon revised my opinion. If you are retired, you won't see the change in folk's lives which is why many carry on as they do.

Two out of 3 job losses in my house, MIL has no idea about this, or the other impacts on her family. SIL has an electrical shop, they are basically selling PPE now, face coverings and face shields as quick as they can get them. No margin.


----------



## Levo-Lon (23 Jul 2020)

fossyant said:


> Still on lock down for MIL, which is good in a way. If she got this, she'd be dead very fast. We all stayed away from her at Christmas as we all had a nasty run of flu type illness - I stayed in the corridor ! The home has had cases, but it seems it's been from 'hospital discharges'. Fortunately, nothing on the 'nursing floor' from what we know, but they tell us nothing - we only know as a relative has a job in the home at the moment.
> 
> So scarey. MIL is currently in fine fettle, nearly died 18 months ago - she's been in rude health since being in a nursing home, despite some short comings with the home, she'd be dead had she been at her old house





Communication is poor ,I think it's partially due to staffing numbers and time.
Our staff are meant to keep residents family up to date but it's just like having someone in hospital..you will wait a long time for info ,so maybe ring them, yes the staff get fed up with the phone ringing but their getting paid to care for your relatives.


On the PPE ..we have a shop opened near us that just supplies PPE.
It's also become a major cottage industry..

I'd say keep your chin up @fossyant but your having a shyte time by the sounds of it


----------



## tom73 (23 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> In the UK, if memory serves, they've traced something like 1100 separate introductions.
> 
> It's a bugger of a disease because it can be really nasty if you catch it, it spreads like wildfire if you don't take basic precautions and sits around being infectious for a week before you show any symptoms. But if people take basic precautions - handwashing, staying away from others and wearing masks - its spread is considerably slowed.



This is the problem the distancing, hand washing message is no longer cutting though and the face mask message though new is all over the place. The go out and spend message is all what's cutting though both at a national and local level. In the early day's many wanted a lockdown or at least something to be done. Seeing what was happening and the fear of the unknown. Being told to isolate with little else to do was not a big issues for most. Now as things open up and social media fires back up full of "look at us having all this fun." Then getting told my someone miles away in call centre to stay at home. Is going to be an ever growing problem add in many employers say ok tuff all your getting is SSP. 
Told you need a test and it's up to you to then sort it , test centres still not accessible for many , random local odd hoc walk in and get tested option. Get tested if you've got symptoms then locally told get tested if don't have symptoms but only for the next few days, Placers going in and out of some sort of local restrictions , shops ect opening and closing, companies going the same. 

Without a clear public health message , testing that is easy to access for everyone , business continuing to play by the rules , targeted state help to the ones who really need it. National and local elected clowns not treating public health a political game. It's not going to be easy to stop things going south quickly. 

Take Australia with all the quick action and enforcement they have done to try and keep a lid on things. They are now finding it hard to stop this. Main issues look's it's been down to people not play by the rules and issues with state quarantine. They are already holding an inquiry into the latter are very clear and open telling people how it is and being up front. We don't get that over here everything is old news and move on , it will be all over by Christmas in the meantime go out and get 50% of a burger paid for by us.


----------



## PeteXXX (23 Jul 2020)

A slightly light hearted take on Social Distancing


----------



## mjr (23 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> This is the problem the distancing, hand washing message is no longer cutting though and the face mask message though new is all over the place. The go out and spend message is all what's cutting though both at a national and local level.


Yes! Still no equivalent for England of this sort of ad:


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (23 Jul 2020)

Some unsettling, if provisional, findings about the effect of temperature and humidity here:

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/weather-covid

Keep warm, keep humid this winter, everybody.


----------



## tom73 (23 Jul 2020)

Telegraph has an interesting report on idea of face mask use is not new but the backlash is. 
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...mask-not-new-backlash-against-say-historians/


----------



## tom73 (23 Jul 2020)

So less than 12 hours to go before they become a requirement and only now are the guidelines on face coverings released. Along with another u-turn on when to use them.
Coverings will be mandatory in enclosed public spaces including supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, transport hubs, banks and post offices. They must also be worn when buying takeaway food and drink, although they can be removed in a seating area.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53513026


----------



## mjr (23 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> So less than 12 hours to go before they become a requirement and only now are the guidelines on face coverings released. Along with another u-turn on when to use them.


I didn't find the guidelines on https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus but they have just updated the page so it won't work easily without javascript (and I'm not letting Dom control my browser, thank you) so I might have missed them.



> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53513026


That links to https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ntres-and-enclosed-transport-hubs-from-friday which says under "Background information" that "The latest guidance will be published on GOV.UK soon."

So in other words, the guidelines haven't really been released, just a press release, and the BBC report is wrong. Again.

This is a total shoot show. Again.


----------



## srw (23 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> only now are the guidelines on face coverings released.





mjr said:


> I didn't find the guidelines on https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus


https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ngs-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own

Actually published over a week ago, and two clicks from the front page.


----------



## tom73 (23 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ngs-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own
> 
> Actually published over a week ago, and two clicks from the front page.


Yes that has but the details of what placers are covered by the rules has only just been added.


----------



## mjr (23 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes that has but the details of what placers are covered by the rules has only just been added.


Yep: it wasn't there when I looked at 5pm.


----------



## bitsandbobs (24 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Yes! Still no equivalent for England of this sort of ad:
> View attachment 537540



It's clear but sadly doesn't seem to be having much effect any more. Fewer and fewer are observing the 1,5m rule. The mayor of Rotterdam admitted as much on TV last night and is urging the government to make facemasks obligatory in all public spaces.[/QUOTE]


----------



## marinyork (24 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> Yep: it wasn't there when I looked at 5pm.



And it's not the first time it's happened.


----------



## MntnMan62 (24 Jul 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> It's clear but sadly doesn't seem to be having much effect any more. Fewer and fewer are observing the 1,5m rule. The mayor of Rotterdam admitted as much on TV last night and is urging the government to make facemasks obligatory in all public spaces.


[/QUOTE]
It seems you are seeing the same thing we saw here in the US. The NJ pulled the plug on “reopening” when he saw that people were being stupid.


----------



## tom73 (24 Jul 2020)

Anyone who is not able to wear a face covering the government have now issued a card you can download. 
It's still not required to prove it or carry it but may help seeing it a government issued one.
it's also in a digital format that works on you phone. 
They also have one asking others to remove a face covering if you need to communicate with them. 
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own
Just download and print them off.


----------



## DaveReading (24 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone who is not able to wear a face covering the government have now issued a card you can download.
> It's still not required to prove it or carry it but may help seeing it a government issued one.
> it's also in a digital format that works on you phone.
> They also have one asking others to remove a face covering if you need to communicate with them.
> ...



I can't see the one that says "F*ck you, I don't care, I'm not wearing one".


----------



## marinyork (24 Jul 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> It's clear but sadly doesn't seem to be having much effect any more. Fewer and fewer are observing the 1,5m rule. The mayor of Rotterdam admitted as much on TV last night and is urging the government to make facemasks obligatory in all public spaces.



This is the worry in the UK. Face coverings despite the fuss on here where people are apprehensive about things opening up, after some hiccups and the risk to people working in shops (not for most on this thread) the percentage will shoot up from 20 to 30% to 80 or 90%. People will wear coverings.

It's the social distancing which is/will go out of the window and this is the hard one to keep up as most of the measures are needed at the same time to complement each and as much as possible.


----------



## DCLane (25 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone who is not able to wear a face covering the government have now issued a card you can download.
> It's still not required to prove it or carry it but may help seeing it a government issued one.
> it's also in a digital format that works on you phone.
> They also have one asking others to remove a face covering if you need to communicate with them.
> ...



Thanks for this. I'm exempt on two grounds - both medical - and my eldest is exempt for disability reasons. Happy to carry a face covering and use it the majority of time but there are circumstances when I'm unwell enough to use one.


----------



## DaveReading (25 Jul 2020)

DCLane said:


> there are circumstances when I'm unwell enough to use one.



I think we understand what you meant.


----------



## cookiemonster (25 Jul 2020)

https://www.mediamatters.org/sincla...nspiracy-theorists-platform-spread-their-lies

Oh for crying out loud! 

America has two pandemics, Covid and stupidity.


----------



## a.twiddler (25 Jul 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> https://www.mediamatters.org/sincla...nspiracy-theorists-platform-spread-their-lies
> 
> Oh for crying out loud!
> 
> America has two pandemics, Covid and stupidity.


You can usually make some kind of judgement about a media outlet by the quality of comments from followers. Mostly scam get rich quick links and one critical comment, does not say much for its credibility. No doubt the scammers can see that people who watch this stuff are likely to fall for anything. Talk about dumb and dumber.


----------



## steve292 (25 Jul 2020)

a.twiddler said:


> You can usually make some kind of judgement about a media outlet by the quality of comments from followers. Mostly scam get rich quick links and one critical comment, does not say much for its credibility. No doubt the scammers can see that people who watch this stuff are likely to fall for anything. Talk about dumb and dumber.


The Sinclair broadcast group runs nearly 330 channels across the US. That's how this shite spreads and gains traction


----------



## marinyork (25 Jul 2020)

Anyone from Spain after midnight tonight is self quarantined for 2 weeks.


----------



## MntnMan62 (25 Jul 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> https://www.mediamatters.org/sincla...nspiracy-theorists-platform-spread-their-lies
> 
> Oh for crying out loud!
> 
> America has two pandemics, Covid and stupidity.



The pandemic has been around since the beginning of this year. But the stupidity has been around for at least 3 1/2 years but some would argue the stupidity really began when Republicans announced the day after Obama won the election that they would do everything possible to prevent Obama from passing any legislation. So sheer stupidity for 8 1/2 years. I think the US is done. I don't think it will survive even one term of this lunatic. The damage he's done is insurmountable. Just my opinion as I see it.


----------



## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Anyone from Spain after midnight tonight is self quarantined for 2 weeks.


Yep like they're gonna do that.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (25 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> But the stupidity has been around for at least 3 1/2 years but some would argue the stupidity really began when Republicans announced the day after Obama won the election that they would do everything possible to prevent Obama from passing any legislation.



Anyone would think these tactics are new the way you're carrying on. All political groupings do their level best to frustrate the plans and policies of their opponents, and always have done. The difference with Trump is he hasn't signed up to the previous cross-party consensus that globalisation was OK, the EU were OK, and China should have a blind eye turned to its nefarious activities just so long as it kept churning out cheap goods for the West to buy. He's been the one to think the unthinkable, and say the unsayable. History I believe, will show Trump to have been on the right side of the argument in many things, even if his loud and brash style is very un-presidential by the accepted norms.
Far from being "finished", I believe the US will be in a stronger position going forward, by seeking to weaken China by projecting it as a pariah state, and the US makes it abundantly clear who it thinks it's friends are, and equally plain who it's friends aren't. Love him or loathe him, everyone knows where they stand with Trump, it makes a refreshing change from the usual "be nice to people you really can't stand but slag them off in private", two-faced style politics. You'd be surprised just how many Brits are actually big fans of Trump and his adversarial, couldn't give a toss what anyone outside the US thinks, way of doing things. I know several who would vote for Trump, but none that would trust that senile old duffer Biden.


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## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Anyone would think these tactics are new the way you're carrying on. All political groupings do their level best to frustrate the plans and policies of their opponents, and always have done. The difference with Trump is he hasn't signed up to the previous cross-party consensus that globalisation was OK, the EU were OK, and China should have a blind eye turned to its nefarious activities just so long as it kept churning out cheap goods for the West to buy. He's been the one to think the unthinkable, and say the unsayable. History I believe, will show Trump to have been on the right side of the argument in many things, even if his loud and brash style is very un-presidential by the accepted norms.
> Far from being "finished", I believe the US will be in a stronger position going forward, by seeking to weaken China by projecting it as a pariah state, and the US makes it abundantly clear who it thinks it's friends are, and equally plain who it's friends aren't. Love him or loathe him, everyone knows where they stand with Trump, it makes a refreshing change from the usual "be nice to people you really can't stand but slag them off in private", two-faced style politics. You'd be surprised just how many Brits are actually big fans of Trump and his adversarial, couldn't give a toss what anyone outside the US thinks, way of doing things. I know several who would vote for Trump, but none that would trust that senile old duffer Biden.


A tax dodging self publicist, i'm not surprised you're a fan.


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## fossyant (25 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Yep like they're gonna do that.



They have, and Scotland.

Friends daughter going Monday, another friend flew yesterday, and a relative going September. I assume employers will want another two weeks booking off, unless you can work from home.


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> A tax dodging self publicist, i'm not surprised you're a fan.




Would you sooner trust Hillary "I accidentally deleted 33,000 dodgy emails" Clinton, or Joe "not sure what day of the week it is" Biden? Trump is a flawed character without question, but the alternatives are far worse from where I'm standing.


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## Rocky (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Would you sooner trust Hillary "I accidentally deleted 33,000 dodgy emails" Clinton, or Joe "not sure what day of the week it is" Biden? Trump is a flawed character without question, but the alternatives are far worse from where I'm standing.


LOL ..... you know nothing about either of them other than the stuff you read from your dodgy Facebook friends. Those two descriptions are pure fantasy and bordering on libellous.

Person, woman, man, camera, TV - you get extra points if you say them in the correct order


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## Rusty Nails (25 Jul 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> LOL ..... you know nothing about either of them other than the stuff you read from your dodgy Facebook friends. Those two descriptions and pure fantasy and bordering on libellous.



He heard that from Trump's camp. And they invented fake news.


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## MntnMan62 (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Anyone would think these tactics are new the way you're carrying on. All political groupings do their level best to frustrate the plans and policies of their opponents, and always have done. The difference with Trump is he hasn't signed up to the previous cross-party consensus that globalisation was OK, the EU were OK, and China should have a blind eye turned to its nefarious activities just so long as it kept churning out cheap goods for the West to buy. He's been the one to think the unthinkable, and say the unsayable. History I believe, will show Trump to have been on the right side of the argument in many things, even if his loud and brash style is very un-presidential by the accepted norms.
> Far from being "finished", I believe the US will be in a stronger position going forward, by seeking to weaken China by projecting it as a pariah state, and the US makes it abundantly clear who it thinks it's friends are, and equally plain who it's friends aren't. Love him or loathe him, everyone knows where they stand with Trump, it makes a refreshing change from the usual "be nice to people you really can't stand but slag them off in private", two-faced style politics. You'd be surprised just how many Brits are actually big fans of Trump and his adversarial, couldn't give a toss what anyone outside the US thinks, way of doing things. I know several who would vote for Trump, but none that would trust that senile old duffer Biden.



What's interesting about everything you've said is that it's all talk. drumpf hasn't accomplished one single thing that you are giving him credit for. There is no trade deal with China. China continues to churn out cheap stuff and the West continues to buy the stuff. And it's one thing to take on another country to challenge it's position in an attempt to improve your own country's position. But if it isn't done properly it all blows up and ends up making things worse. drumpf hasn't done anything correctly or appropriately, and as a result, he hasn't accomplished one single thing. You don't "weaken China by projecting it as a pariah state". Everyone has always known what China is all along. I've been boycotting Chinese made products whenever possible since before Obama was president. Probably going back before Bush Jr. and Clinton. How about you? Or did you just become aware of China's manipulations when drumpf brought it up? You talk about the US letting the world know who it thinks it's friends are and who they aren't? You think that saying things out loud for all to hear is how that is done in foreign diplomacy? You have got to be kidding? These things are done behind the scenes and quietly. When one country comes to the other for something, that's when they are told, if you want that you're going to have to give us this. What that does is it gives the other country the ability to capitulate and agree without it looking like they caved to the other's demands and made to look weak. The only people who like the brash yet ineffective style of drumpf, and who tout this as being positive because "you know where you stand" and what you call "two faced politics" are people who don't understand the first thing about negotiation, foreign diplomacy and simple human nature. And you clearly don't understand the first thing about the guy. But that's ok. You go on saying what you say. It's really quite entertaining.


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## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Would you sooner trust Hillary "I accidentally deleted 33,000 dodgy emails" Clinton, or Joe "not sure what day of the week it is" Biden? Trump is a flawed character without question, but the alternatives are far worse from where I'm standing.


So 'The Fart' who grabs women 'by the pussy' and can't remember cheating on his wife with a Pornstar/Stripper despite his lawyer buddy paying her a substantial amount of money is a better choice.


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## Rusty Nails (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I know several who would vote for Trump, but none that would trust that senile old duffer Biden.



Well at least Trump can prove he's not got dementia:

Person, woman, man, camera, TV. His doctors were amazed by his memory. The man is a leg-end.


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## Rocky (25 Jul 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Well at least Trump can prove he's not got dementia:
> 
> Person, woman, man, camera, TV. His doctors were amazed by his memory. The man is a leg-end.


Don't forget also that he can correctly identify an elephant......amazing!!


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## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> What's interesting about everything you've said is that it's all talk. drumpf hasn't accomplished one single thing that you are giving him credit for. There is no trade deal with China. China continues to churn out cheap stuff and the West continues to buy the stuff. And it's one thing to take on another country to challenge it's position in an attempt to improve your own country's position. But if it isn't done properly it all blows up and ends up making things worse. drumpf hasn't done anything correctly or appropriately, and as a result, he hasn't accomplished one single thing. You don't "weaken China by projecting it as a pariah state". Everyone has always known what China is all along. I've been boycotting Chinese made products whenever possible since before Obama was president. Probably going back before Bush Jr. and Clinton. How about you? Or did you just become aware of China's manipulations when drumpf brought it up? You talk about the US letting the world know who it thinks it's friends are and who they aren't? You think that saying things out loud for all to hear is how that is done in foreign diplomacy? You have got to be kidding? These things are done behind the scenes and quietly. When one country comes to the other for something, that's when they are told, if you want that you're going to have to give us this. What that does is it gives the other country the ability to capitulate and agree without it looking like they caved to the other's demands and made to look weak. The only people who like the brash yet ineffective style of drumpf, and who tout this as being positive because "you know where you stand" and what you call "two faced politics" are people who don't understand the first thing about negotiation, foreign diplomacy and simple human nature. And you clearly don't understand the first thing about the guy. But that's ok. You go on saying what you say. It's really quite entertaining.


Thing is it's a part of the British 'Anti EU' agenda to cosy up to Farty as 'the Farage' has been doing for years.

Another thing to watch out for is that our PM 'Bojo the Clown' was actually born in the US so is technically able to run for President


----------



## MntnMan62 (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Would you sooner trust Hillary "I accidentally deleted 33,000 dodgy emails" Clinton, or Joe "not sure what day of the week it is" Biden? Trump is a flawed character without question, but the alternatives are far worse from where I'm standing.



Yes. I'd trust Hillary over drumpf, who's daughter has been using her personal email address for official business. And you have the nerve to say Biden doesn't know what day of the week it is when drumpf can't even lift a simple glass of water to his face to drink or walk down a ramp with a slight incline without almost toppling over. And what about his ridiculous rambling about those ridiculously simple cognitive tests he brags about taking? They are SUPPOSED to be easy. They test basic cognitive capability. He's not talking about an IQ test. The guy is a moron. Yet you impart a level of intelligence on him that clearly does not exist. Any sane individual would realize that......


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> The guy is a moron. Yet you impart a level of intelligence on him that clearly does not exist. Any sane individual would realize that......



Well let's look at how moronic his achievements have been to date. He's built a multi-billion dollar real estate empire. He took on and beat the longstanding political establishment for the presidential candidacy in his own party. Then he took on and beat the political establishment to win the actual presidency, against the conventional wisdom. Whilst Trump might ruffle a lot of feathers, he is anything but a moron. He knows exactly what he's doing. The Democrat politicians who are currently sitting back and allowing a state of riotous anarchy to exist on the streets of multiple cities are just giving him a helping hand!


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## fossyant (25 Jul 2020)

UK Govt advising against all but essential travel to Mainland Spain - so how's that work if you've got flights next week (not us).


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## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Well let's look at how moronic his achievements have been to date. He's built a multi-billion dollar real estate empire. He took on and beat the longstanding political establishment for the presidential candidacy in his own party. Then he took on and beat the political establishment to win the actual presidency, against the conventional wisdom. Whilst Trump might ruffle a lot of feathers, he is anything but a moron. He knows exactly what he's doing. The Democrat politicians who are currently sitting back and allowing a state of riotous anarchy to exist on the streets of multiple cities are just giving him a helping hand!


No his Father built up the property empire then gifted it to his kids and various 'trusts' in order to avoid income tax, if you're gonna idolise the feckwit at least have some grasp on the truth.


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## DCLane (25 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Anyone from Spain after midnight tonight is self quarantined for 2 weeks.





raleighnut said:


> Yep like they're gonna do that.



This was my thought. It's voluntary and not checked so my guess is they simply won't bother. Quarantine wasn't required when they went so they'll ignore it now they're back.

And anyway most will have used up their leave. So back to work it is and keep quiet about coming back from Spain ...


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## dodgy (25 Jul 2020)

Of course British tourists will observe the 14 day quarantine, come on folks!


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Jul 2020)

Let's cut to the chase, this virus business has been dragging on so long now everyone has had enough of it and this regulation and that regulation. No-one is going to give a monkey's about observing quarantine or self-isolation, and no-one is going to give their details so they can be traced and told to self-isolate. I didn't see one single person fill out a contact detail form when drinking in the pub yesterday, and I'm certainly not going to do so either.


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## marinyork (25 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> No his Father built up the property empire then gifted it to his kids and various 'trusts' in order to avoid income tax, if you're gonna idolise the feckwit at least have some grasp on the truth.



Trump's a devastatingly effective visual communicator. So much of these threads recently are wrestling over public messaging and why people behave the way they do and can you persuade them. How do people come to decisions? It's relevant in the coronavirus world.

His rustbelt strategy in the 2016 election was very clever, as clever as 1968.


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## Rusty Nails (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Let's cut to the chase, this virus business has been dragging on so long now everyone has had enough of it and this regulation and that regulation. No-one is going to give a monkey's about observing quarantine or self-isolation, and no-one is going to give their details so they can be traced and told to self-isolate. I didn't see one single person fill out a contact detail form when drinking in the pub yesterday, and I'm certainly not going to do so either.



I admire your ability to see idiocy and self-centeredness as positive traits.


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## Rocky (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Let's cut to the chase, this virus business has been dragging on so long now everyone has had enough of it and this regulation and that regulation. No-one is going to give a monkey's about observing quarantine or self-isolation, and no-one is going to give their details so they can be traced and told to self-isolate. I didn't see one single person fill out a contact detail form when drinking in the pub yesterday, and I'm certainly not going to do so either.


That may apply to you and your friends, I have a much more positive view of the world. In early March, my junior doctor son flew back from Indonesia to work on Covid wards with his colleagues. Why? Because he heard people were dying. I know many other health care professionals who have put themselves at risk of infection to care for the sickest patients. Many have been working 16 hour days and isolating from their families. I happen to know that they are disgusted by people who dismiss this virus and flout the rules around self-isolation, track and trace and behave in a totally irresponsible way.

These NHS people are doing their public duty. People that you describe are simply taking the piss. Totally selfish - thank God you and your friends are in a minority.


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## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I admire your ability to see idiocy and self-centeredness as positive traits.


He's right though, there are a bunch of self-centred peanuts who think this way and have done for some time, really I just despair at their selfishness.


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## DCLane (25 Jul 2020)

That's why SWMBO and her colleagues are preparing for a 2nd wave this autumn. Don't worry, they've now got enough beds / ventilators / other equipment to deal with the hundreds of thousands seriously ill and dying.

I'm not joking: they've been told to take all their leave and be ready.


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## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Trump's a devastatingly effective visual communicator. So much of these threads recently are wrestling over public messaging and why people behave the way they do and can you persuade them. How do people come to decisions? It's relevant in the coronavirus world.
> 
> His rustbelt strategy in the 2016 election was very clever, as clever as 1968.


68, was that Nixon?


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Jul 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I admire your ability to see idiocy and self-centeredness as positive traits.



The authorities are hardly giving anyone much of an incentive are they? "give us your details so if anyone near you has caught the virus we can order you to stay in, not go out, not go to work, possibly not earn any money for two weeks, and we haven't got anything we can give you to treat the virus with anyway" is not really selling it to me.....


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## Rocky (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The authorities are hardly giving anyone much of an incentive are they? "give us your details so if anyone near you has caught the virus we can order you to stay in, not go out, not go to work, possibly not earn any money for two weeks, and we haven't got anything we can give you to treat the virus with anyway" is not really selling it to me.....


......if you followed the guidance and social distanced, you wouldn't catch Covid and need treatment!! You haven't really thought this through, have you?


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## dodgy (25 Jul 2020)

They walk amongst us.


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## Rusty Nails (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The authorities are hardly giving anyone much of an incentive are they? "give us your details so if anyone near you has caught the virus we can order you to stay in, not go out, not go to work, possibly not earn any money for two weeks, and we haven't got anything we can give you to treat the virus with anyway" is not really selling it to me.....



What would really sell it to you?

I suspect that you will never buy it, no matter how good the sales pitch.


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## marinyork (25 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> 68, was that Nixon?



Yeah the southern strategy, something which realigned US politics for a generation and caused a lot of damage. Just like Trump, Nixon probably didn't really believe in the things he stoked up, he just didn't care as it got him into office.


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Jul 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> ......if you followed the guidance and social distanced, you wouldn't catch Covid and need treatment!! You haven't really thought this through, have you?



Completely impractical. Most people need to go out to work and earn a living, keep themselves supplied with food, and do a whole host of other activities. Start living in the real world, not your middle class fantasy one. Some contact with other people and physical objects that might be infected with the virus is unavoidable, and some people are going to get it no matter what. 
You may be able to work from home, get all your shopping delivered, do everything via a computer screen, but there are millions of people who need to work to eat and need to be physically present at a location to do their job.


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## Joey Shabadoo (25 Jul 2020)

FCO currently advising against all non-essential travel to Spain. I think that means travel insurance is void. https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/spain


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## Rocky (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Completely impractical. Most people need to go out to work and earn a living, keep themselves supplied with food, and do a whole host of other activities. Start living in the real world, not your middle class fantasy one. Some contact with other people and physical objects that might be infected with the virus is unavoidable, and some people are going to get it no matter what.
> You may be able to work from home, get all your shopping delivered, do everything via a computer screen, but there are millions of people who need to work to eat and need to be physically present at a location to do their job.


You were talking about drinking in a pub and not socially distancing from other drinkers....and not caring. I'm happy to talk about work if you want....I have two HCPs in my immediate family, I am the carer for my elderly mother. Cut the class gibes.


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## cookiemonster (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Would you sooner trust Hillary "I accidentally deleted 33,000 dodgy emails" Clinton, or Joe "not sure what day of the week it is" Biden? Trump is a flawed character without question, but the alternatives are far worse from where I'm standing.



Hilary Clinton gave evidence to a hearing for 11 hours and they found no evidence of that. Trump used his lickspittles in the GOP to ban all evidence and witnesses for his impeachment trial. You tell me who’s more guilty.

Biden’s worse than Trump? You need to have a word with the voices in your head if you really believe that.


----------



## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> What would really sell it to you?
> 
> I suspect that you will never buy it, no matter how good the sales pitch.


I dunno he fell 'hook line and sinker' for leaving the EU. 


marinyork said:


> Yeah the southern strategy, something which realigned US politics for a generation and caused a lot of damage. Just like Trump, Nixon probably didn't really believe in the things he stoked up, he just didn't care as it got him into office.


Franks comments,


View: https://youtu.be/c2ILDPu_6JI


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## Adam4868 (25 Jul 2020)

Trump is Putin's play thing at best...even he was shocked when he actually won !
I'm with Skip on this now...how are you meant to stay indoors when a pint is 1.29 at spoons


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## marinyork (25 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Trump is Putin's play thing at best...even he was shocked when he actually won !
> I'm with Skip on this now...how are you meant to stay indoors when a pint is 1.29 at spoons




View: https://youtu.be/LNK430YOiT4


----------



## cookiemonster (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Well let's look at how moronic his achievements have been to date. He's built a multi-billion dollar real estate empire. He took on and beat the longstanding political establishment for the presidential candidacy in his own party. Then he took on and beat the political establishment to win the actual presidency, against the conventional wisdom. Whilst Trump might ruffle a lot of feathers, he is anything but a moron. He knows exactly what he's doing. The Democrat politicians who are currently sitting back and allowing a state of riotous anarchy to exist on the streets of multiple cities are just giving him a helping hand!



Yes, let’s look at these achievements. Five times bankrupt, including a casino where you have people lining up to hand you their money, made the swamp even swampier, told 20,000 plus lies, has 17 other investigations into his businesses, was fined 2 million $ as his ‘charity’ wasn’t a charity, right up Putin’s backside, admired authoritarians, doesn’t pay tax, his actions have killed 140,000 Americans, mocked a disabled journalist, recommends people ingest bleach, plays more golf than professional golfers (and cheats there too), is a known sexual predator, functionally illiterate. I could go on but let’s stop there.


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Jul 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> What would really sell it to you?



That's easy to answer; a guarantee of being promptly compensated by the government, for 100% of lost earnings whilst being told to self-isolate and unable to go out to work, so the person "doing the right thing" is not left financially disadvantaged for doing so. I'd have no reason not to co-operate in that case, and would not be worse off for so doing.


----------



## cookiemonster (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The authorities are hardly giving anyone much of an incentive are they? "give us your details so if anyone near you has caught the virus we can order you to stay in, not go out, not go to work, possibly not earn any money for two weeks, and we haven't got anything we can give you to treat the virus with anyway" is not really selling it to me.....



So how does being hooked up to a ventilator after infecting your family sound?


----------



## cookiemonster (25 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> No his Father built up the property empire then gifted it to his kids and various 'trusts' in order to avoid income tax, if you're gonna idolise the feckwit at least have some grasp on the truth.



Apparently, him and his genetically weird family avoided $1 billion in tax that way.


----------



## cookiemonster (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Completely impractical. Most people need to go out to work and earn a living, keep themselves supplied with food, and do a whole host of other activities. Start living in the real world, not your middle class fantasy one. Some contact with other people and physical objects that might be infected with the virus is unavoidable, and some people are going to get it no matter what.
> You may be able to work from home, get all your shopping delivered, do everything via a computer screen, but there are millions of people who need to work to eat and need to be physically present at a location to do their job.



Strange how right wingers always shout that everyone bar them do not live in the real world.


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## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Apparently, him and his genetically weird family avoided $1 billion in tax that way.


Yep.


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Jul 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Apparently, him and his genetically weird family avoided $1 billion in tax that way.



Which tends to rather prove my point that Trump isn't dumb, no matter how his opponents try to portray him. Dumb people don't tend to ever manage to get hold of, or keep hold of, billions of dollars/pounds/whatever in the first place. The people who do amass such fortunes might not always be sweet loveable characters, but they aren't stupid either. Many are as cunning as a fox who fancies a chicken supper.


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## cookiemonster (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Which tends to rather prove my point that Trump isn't dumb, no matter how his opponents try to portray him. Dumb people don't tend to ever manage to get hold of, or keep hold of, billions of dollars/pounds/whatever in the first place. The people who do amass such fortunes might not always be sweet loveable characters, but they aren't stupid either. Many are as cunning as a fox who fancies a chicken supper.



Proves what point except that, according to you, tax evasion is ok while teachers have to buy basic supplies for their school. And, he never kept hold of that billion(s) as he’s a 5x bankrupt. Your post makes no sense.

Tell me, why do you enjoy being lied to?


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## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Which tends to rather prove my point that Trump isn't dumb, no matter how his opponents try to portray him. Dumb people don't tend to ever manage to get hold of, or keep hold of, billions of dollars/pounds/whatever in the first place. The people who do amass such fortunes might not always be sweet loveable characters, but they aren't stupid either. Many are as cunning as a fox who fancies a chicken supper.


No his lawyers are clever, apart from the ones that get caught out lying about payments to pornstars that is.


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Jul 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> So, tax evasion is ok by you while teachers have to buy basic supplies for their school. And, he never kept hold of that billion(s) as he’s a 5x bankrupt.



Teachers don't have to buy anything. They get paid to turn up to teach and so long as they fulfill that obligation they get paid. No-one is forcing them to spend anything. If the school is short of teaching materials, it's their problem not the teachers. There's also far more money in the school system now than there ever was when I was at school. If basics are in short supply, then the money is being misused by whoever controls the budget. For example when I was at school virtually nothing got spent on furniture. The naughty boys, which sometimes included me, had to repair, sand down and re-varnish old school desks as detention punishments. That's how the schools managed - by not throwing money around on frivolities.
If Trump has gone bankrupt 5 times then he must have made a load of money that many times. He isn't penniless, so he must have some business acumen. Business bankruptcy is not considered anything out of the ordinary in the US, it just happens and people recover from it and start over again.


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## cookiemonster (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Teachers don't have to buy anything. They get paid to turn up to teach and so long as they fulfill that obligation they get paid. No-one is forcing them to spend anything. If the school is short of teaching materials, it's their problem not the teachers. There's also far more money in the school system now than there ever was when I was at school. If basics are in short supply, then the money is being misused by whoever controls the budget. For example when I was at school virtually nothing got spent on furniture. The naughty boys, which sometimes included me, had to repair, sand down and re-varnish old school desks as detention punishments. That's how the schools managed - by not throwing money around on frivolities.
> If Trump has gone bankrupt 5 times then he must have made a load of money that many times. He isn't penniless, so he must have some business acumen. Business bankruptcy is not considered anything out of the ordinary in the US, it just happens and people recover from it and start over again.



He’s a 5x bankrupt because he’s an idiot. Every business he’s touched has failed. Trump steaks, university (which he was fined 20 million for), airline, magazine, clothing (made in Mexico and China). The list is endless.

And, yes, teachers in the US do have to buy basic supplies. I’ve worked with American teachers here and they have told horror stories about the way education is run in the US. The money’s not there.

Again, I ask, why do you enjoy being lied to and enjoy lapping up those lies without a moment’s thought?


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## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Teachers don't have to buy anything. They get paid to turn up to teach and so long as they fulfill that obligation they get paid. No-one is forcing them to spend anything. If the school is short of teaching materials, it's their problem not the teachers. There's also far more money in the school system now than there ever was when I was at school. If basics are in short supply, then the money is being misused by whoever controls the budget. For example when I was at school virtually nothing got spent on furniture. The naughty boys, which sometimes included me, had to repair, sand down and re-varnish old school desks as detention punishments. That's how the schools managed - by not throwing money around on frivolities.
> If Trump has gone bankrupt 5 times then he must have made a load of money that many times. He isn't penniless, so he must have some business acumen. Business bankruptcy is not considered anything out of the ordinary in the US, it just happens and people recover from it and start over again.


You obviously don't know anybody who is teaching these days


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## cookiemonster (25 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> No his lawyers are clever, apart from the ones that get caught out lying about payments to pornstars that is.



What!? Have you seen Rudi Giulliani?


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> You obviously don't know anybody who is teaching these days



So where's all the money going then?. It's an indisputable fact that school spending in real terms is much higher than in previous times, so the money is out there and someone is spending it on something. If the budget holder has got a warped sense of priorities, then that is their responsibility, not the government for not providing a bottomless bucket of cash.


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## srw (25 Jul 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I suspect that you will never buy it, no matter how good the sales pitch.


And yet clearly some sales pitches are really appealing to him...

Like the ones underlying these...


SkipdiverJohn said:


> He's built a multi-billion dollar real estate empire





SkipdiverJohn said:


> If Trump has gone bankrupt 5 times then he must have made a load of money that many times.


As others have pointed out he hasn't built anything. He's like the punchline to the proverbial joke - "Hpw do you make a million in farming?" "Start with 10 million" - except that any old idiot ought to be able to make money out of a property empire in the middle of an economic boom. It takes a really special idiot not only to turn a large property empire into a small one, but also to go bankrupt multiple times. Despite what you say, bankruptcy is a sign of failure - even in the US. It's just that the US has reasonably generous laws that enable failures to bounce back quickly if they can persuade someone to fund them again.


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## srw (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> It's an indisputable fact that school spending in real terms is much higher than in previous times


No it's not. It's wrong.







https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14344
It really should be no surprise to anyone that school spending peaked under the last government to take education seriously.

Incidentally, that was the second result for a search for "school spending real terms UK", so I don't think you can have done your research particularly effectively


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## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So where's all the money going then?. It's an indisputable fact that school spending in real terms is much higher than in previous times, so the money is out there and someone is spending it on something. If the budget holder has got a warped sense of priorities, then that is their responsibility, not the government for not providing a bottomless bucket of cash.


Spending in schools was at it's highest in the 50s and 60s it had started to decline in the 70s and by the 90s all schools were strapped for cash to the point of selling off playing fields for development.


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## cookiemonster (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So where's all the money going then?. It's an indisputable fact that school spending in real terms is much higher than in previous times, so the money is out there and someone is spending it on something. If the budget holder has got a warped sense of priorities, then that is their responsibility, not the government for not providing a bottomless bucket of cash.



Where’s all the money gone? Into Free Schools and Academies, where the CEO gets paid more money than the PM, where these companies are based in overseas tax havens, where Victorian style discipline has had a few of then hauled over the coals and employing non-qualified teachers on min wage who are not guaranteed their salaries at the end of each month hence the regular involvement of the IR to sort it out.

Also, add in PPP projects that seemingly only benefit those that tend to hand over 5/6 figure cheques to a certain political party.

A few reasons why I left education in the UK to head abroad. Many other teachers have done the same thing. But right wingers don’t seem to care too much about education it seems.


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## stowie (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If Trump has gone bankrupt 5 times then he must have made a load of money that many times. He isn't penniless, so he must have some business acumen. Business bankruptcy is not considered anything out of the ordinary in the US, it just happens and people recover from it and start over again.



Money makes money. Trump's father was a very successful businessman - Trump inherited not much short of half a billion dollars between the ages of 3 and 53.

This much cash should get a decent return even if you are economically only semi-literate. It is enough money to invest heavily in numerous areas to mitigate risk from one particular investment.

Trump managed to make spectacularly poor decisions even with this huge head start.

The real place he made money was in licensing agreements for the Trump name and The Apprentice in the US. Where the producers readily admit they thought it was a funny joke to get Trump on the show - at the time he was viewed at the time as a bit of a washed up playboy with a string of bankruptcies. But people loved it and it appears some believed it was real. The Trump licensing was profitable for Trump but born from the fact that banks weren't willing to lend him the money to do the development part himself.


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## Mugshot (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You'd be surprised just how many Brits are actually big fans of Trump


Unfortunately it really isn't surprising.
I'd have a wild stab in the dark that most of them voted Brexit, have an overly relaxed opinion to the Covid threat, feel threatened by Greta Thunberg, deny climate change, say "All lives matter", think Antifa is a terrorist organisation, wear pyjamas to Tesco, have a ruddy complexion etc
Yeah, I know the type.


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## MntnMan62 (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Well let's look at how moronic his achievements have been to date. He's built a multi-billion dollar real estate empire. He took on and beat the longstanding political establishment for the presidential candidacy in his own party. Then he took on and beat the political establishment to win the actual presidency, against the conventional wisdom. Whilst Trump might ruffle a lot of feathers, he is anything but a moron. He knows exactly what he's doing. The Democrat politicians who are currently sitting back and allowing a state of riotous anarchy to exist on the streets of multiple cities are just giving him a helping hand!



Ok. You lost me when you said he built a multi-billion real estate empire. He most definitely DID NOT. That comment alone means you don't know anything about him. First of all, he inherited his money from his father, Fred Trump. Fred built tens of thousands of rental apartments in Brooklyn and Queens and built thousands of homes on Long Island. His father was a legitimate billionaire. Donald inherited a minimum of half a billion. And his father handed him The Trump Organization. An already existing monster of a real estate company. If you were to be able to do the simple math to calculate it, you would see that if he had taken his inheritence and invested it in S&P500 Index Funds, he would have more money than he even claims to have now. And the reason I am qualified to say all of this is because during the course of my 35 year real estate career in NYC, one of the accounts that I was responsible for for about 19 years was a trust account set up for Donald and his 4 siblings by their father Fred. And during the course of handling those assets I dealt with his brother Robert. In addition, I represented a client who bought an apartment in one of his condominium conversions in Manhattan and during that transaction I dealt with Don Jr. I'm definitely not bragging here. Nothing I've said is worth bragging about. But it does validate what I know about the family. In addition, while he took on and beat the longstanding Republican political establishment for the presidential candidacy and then won the actual presidency, it's a fact that his motivation was originally a joke. He never thought he would win. Proof of that was his own son Don Jr. who said that after the election Don Jr. walked up to his father and saw that he was white as a ghost with all the blood drained out of his face and he quoted his father as saying "So, now what?" And everything he's done since shows he has no idea what he is doing. Everything since is motivated to feed his fragile ego. History will show that he has been a complete failure. 

Oh, and one more thing. There is no riotous anarchy taking place in multiple cities. They are called protests. Those protests are a direct product of drumpf's rhetoric. I laugh as you sit there halfway across the world and you think you know anything about what is happening here? Everything you've said above is incorrect. But like I said before, you go ahead and keep talking. It just shows how little you know about the subject.


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## raleighnut (25 Jul 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Unfortunately it really isn't surprising.
> I'd have a wild stab in the dark that most of them voted Brexit, have an overly relaxed opinion of the Covid threat, feel threatened by Greta Thunberg, deny climate change, say "All lives matter", think Antifa is a terrorist organisation, wear pyjamas to Tesco, have a ruddy complexion etc
> Yeah, I know the type.


You've met some of them too.


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## MntnMan62 (25 Jul 2020)

raleighnut said:


> No his Father built up the property empire then gifted it to his kids and various 'trusts' in order to avoid income tax, if you're gonna idolise the feckwit at least have some grasp on the truth.



His father did use trusts but they don't avoid income tax. They defer estate taxes. Trusts still must pay income taxes on the income earned by the assets in the trust. But everything else you said was spot on. Especially that last bit there. I liked that a lot.


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## deptfordmarmoset (25 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> Anyone from Spain after midnight tonight is self quarantined for 2 weeks.


I gather Shapps was on his way to Spain. It sounds like a hapless government might now be Shappsless.


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## marinyork (25 Jul 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I gather Shapps was on his way to Spain. It sounds like a hapless government might now be Shappsless.



I did wonder about that and saw it said an hour ago he was believed to have holiday plans in Spain.

No more new transport announcements for a couple of weeks. Probably means by the time he gets back it'll be forced coronavirus testing through eating haribo and smurf workplace documentation.


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## fossyant (25 Jul 2020)

Just seen constant flights come into Manchester - just watching 5 stack up now at 11:30 on flight radar. Not seen that many for weeks.....


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## fossyant (25 Jul 2020)

Another 3 making a last run in !!!


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## classic33 (25 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Let's cut to the chase, this virus business has been dragging on so long now everyone has had enough of it and this regulation and that regulation.* No-one is going to give a monkey's about observing quarantine or self-isolation, and no-one is going to give their details so they can be traced and told to self-isolate. *I didn't see one single person fill out a contact detail form when drinking in the pub yesterday, and I'm certainly not going to do so either.


The airlines they flew with already have those details.


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## fossyant (25 Jul 2020)

Last one gone over - not seen that many since March....


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## qigong chimp (26 Jul 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Ok. You lost me when you said he built a multi-billion real estate empire. He most definitely DID NOT. That comment alone means you don't know anything about him. First of all, he inherited his money from his father, Fred Trump. Fred built tens of thousands of rental apartments in Brooklyn and Queens and built thousands of homes on Long Island. His father was a legitimate billionaire. Donald inherited a minimum of half a billion. And his father handed him The Trump Organization. An already existing monster of a real estate company. If you were to be able to do the simple math to calculate it, you would see that if he had taken his inheritence and invested it in S&P500 Index Funds, he would have more money than he even claims to have now. And the reason I am qualified to say all of this is because during the course of my 35 year real estate career in NYC, one of the accounts that I was responsible for for about 19 years was a trust account set up for Donald and his 4 siblings by their father Fred. And during the course of handling those assets I dealt with his brother Robert. In addition, I represented a client who bought an apartment in one of his condominium conversions in Manhattan and during that transaction I dealt with Don Jr. I'm definitely not bragging here. Nothing I've said is worth bragging about. But it does validate what I know about the family. In addition, while he took on and beat the longstanding Republican political establishment for the presidential candidacy and then won the actual presidency, it's a fact that his motivation was originally a joke. He never thought he would win. Proof of that was his own son Don Jr. who said that after the election Don Jr. walked up to his father and saw that he was white as a ghost with all the blood drained out of his face and he quoted his father as saying "So, now what?" And everything he's done since shows he has no idea what he is doing. Everything since is motivated to feed his fragile ego. History will show that he has been a complete failure.
> 
> Oh, and one more thing. There is no riotous anarchy taking place in multiple cities. They are called protests. Those protests are a direct product of drumpf's rhetoric. I laugh as you sit there halfway across the world and you think you know anything about what is happening here? Everything you've said above is incorrect. But like I said before, you go ahead and keep talking. It just shows how little you know about the subject.


What a take down!


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## mjr (26 Jul 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Strange how right wingers always shout that everyone bar them do not live in the real world.


Never mind: if they keep on as they seem to be, covid will mean they're soon not living in any world. It just sucks that they'll probably take a dozen others with them :-(


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## mjr (26 Jul 2020)

dodgy said:


> Of course British tourists will observe the 14 day quarantine, come on folks!
> 
> View attachment 537915


I rather suspect that the sort of people who will say it's all bull feathers and they won't quarantine voluntarily are also generally the sort to have bragged that they're off to Spain because it's all bull feathers, so everyone at work and down the pub and whatever will know they've been in lurgy land and not want them there for a week or two. There could be some interesting vigilante acts next week :-\


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## MntnMan62 (26 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Let's cut to the chase, this virus business has been dragging on so long now everyone has had enough of it and this regulation and that regulation. No-one is going to give a monkey's about observing quarantine or self-isolation, and no-one is going to give their details so they can be traced and told to self-isolate. I didn't see one single person fill out a contact detail form when drinking in the pub yesterday, and I'm certainly not going to do so either.



Quite simply.....fantastic. This "virus business" is certainly tough to deal with. I think everyone can say that. But the reality is that humans aren't in control. By saying "everyone has had enough of it" suggests that we can just all of a sudden forget it exists and proceed to move on with our lives like nothing happened. Yeah. Maybe you haven't seen any news about your favorite place, 'Murica, but lots of people thought the same thing and did exactly as you are suggesting and wow, look at that. There are now more new and active cases in the US than at any time since February. And in another week we'll start to see the death toll follow suit. And because of what is taking place here, most governors decided to cancel the opening of bars, restaurants and such. But you John should most definitely head to the nearest pub and order yourself a Budweiser. Ah heck, just order an entire six pack. And have yourself a royal good time.


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## SkipdiverJohn (26 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> so everyone at work and down the pub and whatever will know they've been in lurgy land and not want them there for a week or two.



There's not much difference in the amount of coronavirus in Spain as there is the the UK, so the idea that everyone who has been there is going to get infected and bring the virus back with them is the usual hysterical nonsense coming from the usual fearmongering drama queens. If there's one place where I do think it's a real risk that more virus could come from, that's India, because the official numbers are simply implausibly low given the size of the population and overcrowded living conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if we see increases of cases there of a quarter of a million per day within the next week, and they will soon exceed the USA and Brazil numbers combined.



MntnMan62 said:


> Quite simply.....fantastic. This "virus business" is certainly tough to deal with. I think everyone can say that. But the reality is that humans aren't in control. By saying "everyone has had enough of it" suggests that we can just all of a sudden forget it exists and proceed to move on with our lives like nothing happened.



That's exactly what needs to happen. A return to normality. The virus is going to be around for years to come in varying amounts in countless locations across the planet. It's going nowhere. Even if a working vaccine is developed, not everyone will have it, and the virus could well have mutated by then anyway - which could render any vaccine less effective or even completely ineffective. We have two choices; either we all go into hiding away from the virus for a few years and destroy all our prosperity that has taken centuries to achieve, or we accept that it's still out there, it will remain out there, and that sooner or later a high proportion of us will catch it, and just get on with daily life regardless.
Oh, and by the way, no self-respecting Englishman ever drinks the American version of Bud. It's shite. Even most of the British lager louts with very undiscerning tastes indeed don't drink it.


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## cookiemonster (26 Jul 2020)

Mugshot said:


> Unfortunately it really isn't surprising.
> I'd have a wild stab in the dark that most of them voted Brexit, have an overly relaxed opinion to the Covid threat, feel threatened by Greta Thunberg, deny climate change, say "All lives matter", think Antifa is a terrorist organisation, wear pyjamas to Tesco, have a ruddy complexion etc
> Yeah, I know the type.



Don’t forget the ones that bang on about taking back control but their wives choose and buy their socks and underwear for them.


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## cookiemonster (26 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> There's not much difference in the amount of coronavirus in Spain as there is the the UK, so the idea that everyone who has been there is going to get infected and bring the virus back with them is the usual hysterical nonsense coming from the usual fearmongering drama queens. If there's one place where I do think it's a real risk that more virus could come from, that's India, because the official numbers are simply implausibly low given the size of the population and overcrowded living conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if we see increases of cases there of a quarter of a million per day within the next week, and they will soon exceed the USA and Brazil numbers combined.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



First, any prosperity we had has been destroyed in the last 10 years, and that’s not coming back anytime soon I fear. Also, this virus kills 2-12% of those who catch it. Are you suggesting that we just get on with it while people are still dropping dead? I certainly don’t want to catch something so infectious as I could pass it on to Mr Cookiemonster, who has HIV. If he catches this, it’s game over potentially but you wouldn’t understand that as it means having to look out for your fellow human and that is something right wingers do not do. Anyone who actually cares and worries about this is a drama queen!? This is my concern about the mentality of those on the right. No empathy and a total lack of concern for their fellow human, hence my point about prosperity. That’s what’s destroyed it and why it’ll be a while before it returns.

British or English lager louts?


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## SkipdiverJohn (26 Jul 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Don’t forget the ones that bang on about taking back control but their wives choose and buy their socks and underwear for them.



So much stereotyping going on here, what a surprise. You missed out the tattoos, consuming curry but eschewing the foreign muck, and wearing football colours. 
Must try harder next time.


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## cookiemonster (26 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> So much stereotyping going on here, what a surprise. You missed out the tattoos, consuming curry but eschewing the foreign muck, and wearing football colours.
> Must try harder next time.



Yup. I agree but the socks and pants bought by their wives always gets me.


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## Stephenite (26 Jul 2020)

I have a question which I can't find the answer to online. And I haven't lived in the UK for 20 years.

Are the quarantine rules enforced in the UK? If so, then how?

The background is - I know someone who is a bit of a twunt and is, of course, on holiday in Spain at the moment. Their plan is to return to the UK next week for a couple of days before setting off for another holibob in France. It's quite likely they will not adhere to the quarantine rules voluntarily.

Would the fact they're supposed to under quarantine be picked up at the airport if they tried to leave the UK? Is there a register of quarantined citizens? Do employers, GPs, health service, etc. get to find out? Or is it based on trust and social responsibility?


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## srw (26 Jul 2020)

Stephenite said:


> Would the fact they're supposed to under quarantine be picked up at the airport if they tried to leave the UK? Is there a register of quarantined citizens? Do employers, GPs, health service, etc. get to find out? Or is


I suspect you know the answer to all of those questions!

https://www.gov.uk/uk-border-control


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## SkipdiverJohn (26 Jul 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> First, any prosperity we had has been destroyed in the last 10 years, and that’s not coming back anytime soon I fear...... Also, this virus kills 2-12% of those who catch it.
> British or English lager louts?



1) Usual leftist nonsense. Even in the financial crisis of 2008, the economy of the UK only shrank by single digit percentage, and that shrinkage has since been recovered. Unemployment pre-lockdown was below 4%, the lowest for 45 years in the UK, and one of the lowest jobless rates in the developed world. 
2) No it doesn't. The true mortality rate is almost certainly substantially under 1% since official infection counts are only a small fraction of the real rate of infection, by a massive factor in countries with ineffective testing regimes and/or corrupt public institutions that cannot be trusted to report truthful numbers.
3) Lager louts are not a purely English phenomenon. I've met enough from the other nations of the UK. Same louts, just different accents.


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## cookiemonster (26 Jul 2020)

1) Not leftist nonsense, provable fact. The low unemployment rate has been caused by people taking huge wage cuts to protect their jobs, but this has not been reciprocated by bosses who continue to award themselves double digit pay increases while the staff get nothing. Also, many are 'under-employed' or on zero hour contracts, which does nothing to increase prosperity, except for those same bosses.

2) The mortality rate, depending on the area of the world, and the group of people affected, is between 2-12%. It's not under 1% and never has been. Figures are from John Hopkins University and the WHO. Speaking of those who cannot be trusted, Trump taking over the daily reporting of figures from the CDC? The infection rate, according to the above institutions and the CDC, is about 10x the official 3 million figure as so many people in the USA cannot afford to get tested. 

See me after class.


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## SkipdiverJohn (26 Jul 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Yup. I agree but the socks and pants bought by their wives always gets me.



It's OK, I seem to manage to choose my own socks and pants, and I don't wear pyjamas when out shopping either. That's really chavvy.


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## SkipdiverJohn (26 Jul 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> The infection rate, according to the above institutions and the CDC, is about 10x the official 3 million figure as so many people in the USA cannot afford to get tested.



That's the most credible comment you've made. The true infection rate throughout the developed world probably is about ten times larger than the official stats, because most people won't have had any reason to get tested unless they catch something that makes them sufficiently ill to require medical attention. So, in the USA, on current official numbers, the true total is probably north of 40 million cases, or about 1 in 8 of the entire population. In the developing world the multiplier between official and true infections is probably more like a factor of 25 or 50, given there is no way any society with loads of slum dwellers can possibly have lower virus infection rates than say, the ten most developed economies on earth. The virus is way, way, more widespread than any official numbers would suggest, and is one reason why it doesn't concern me overly. At the rate it is going, it will inevitably burn itself out over time anyway as it becomes less and less efficient at transmitting to new non-immune victims.


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## Stephenite (26 Jul 2020)

srw said:


> I suspect you know the answer to all of those questions!
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/uk-border-control


Thanks for the link.

So they'll be likely refused permission to travel abroad within the quarantine period but, the bit "You may also be fined up to £1,000 if you refuse to self-isolate, or you could face further action." is as far as it goes? Not sure if that is enough of a deterrent with these people.


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## cookiemonster (26 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> That's the most credible comment you've made. The true infection rate throughout the developed world probably is about ten times larger than the official stats, because most people won't have had any reason to get tested unless they catch something that makes them sufficiently ill to require medical attention. So, in the USA, on current official numbers, the true total is probably north of 40 million cases, or about 1 in 8 of the entire population. In the developing world the multiplier between official and true infections is probably more like a factor of 25 or 50, given there is no way any society with loads of slum dwellers can possibly have lower virus infection rates than say, the ten most developed economies on earth. The virus is way, way, more widespread than any official numbers would suggest, and is one reason why it doesn't concern me overly. At the rate it is going, it will inevitably burn itself out over time anyway as it becomes less and less efficient at transmitting to new non-immune victims.




Unfortunately, due to the circumstances I've mentioned, I have to be concerned. And, I'm afraid, you should be to.


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## SkipdiverJohn (26 Jul 2020)

In your circumstances, you would actually be better off catching it, then staying away from your household whilst you recover. That way, afterwards, you could be 100% sure you are not an infection danger to someone you come into contact with at high risk.


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## Julia9054 (26 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> In your circumstances, you would actually be better off catching it, then staying away from your household whilst you recover. That way, afterwards, you could be 100% sure you are not an infection danger to someone you come into contact with at high risk.


As has been said many times, it is not death vs a bit of a cough. Despite being likely healthy enough not to end up in hospital, I do not want covid19. Everyone I know who has had it (none of whom have needed hospitalisation) has said it has wiped them out for weeks. 
We also do not know enough about immunity to say with any certainty that once you have had it you are immune and no longer a risk to others.


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## cookiemonster (26 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> In your circumstances, you would actually be better off catching it, then staying away from your household whilst you recover. That way, afterwards, you could be 100% sure you are not an infection danger to someone you come into contact with at high risk.



And the medical evidence for this is?


View: https://media.giphy.com/media/BM10yLKooGbEB27GoA/giphy.gif


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## fossyant (26 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> In your circumstances, you would actually be better off catching it, then staying away from your household whilst you recover. That way, afterwards, you could be 100% sure you are not an infection danger to someone you come into contact with at high risk.



Erm, doesn't quite work like that. CM could still be carrying the virus on clothes/skin etc, and he has to be careful - he could have had it, who knows. I can see his concerns, and if you've got any relative who is at risk you'd understand. We can't go near MIL, and can only see her through glass talking to each other via skype so we can hear her.


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## tom73 (26 Jul 2020)

Now look John just climb out of the skip once in a while and take time to understand that this "virus business". Has killed 1000's of people, left 1000's with post virus compilations, Left many with life changing effects of being ventilated for weeks and months. Brought many in the health service to breaking point, left families torn apart by not being with a loved one as they died. Unable to say they things you long to say when you know they don't have long. This "virus business" will not go away it's a virus it don't care who you are or if you've had enough of it.
It's out of our control and even yours. We can slow it down with face coverings, distancing and hand washing. We can treat some of it's effects (up to a point). We are now at a point though the interventions taken (which if done sooner would we'd have reached months ago) to allow most things to open up and start to do things as before. But if we don't all do what we need this "virus business" will once again been well into profit and the human cost will become even more. Most people by now the penny has dropped and they understand this "virus business"is not all about them and the need to keep safe but the need to save lives of others.

This "virus business" will go on for as long it takes and the actions of people like you will help to keep it going for much longer than it need's to be. So if you've had enough of this "virus business" then it's simple just man up and do what you've been asked to. It's not difficult or hard to do is it? Even my wives nephew who's 3 and is his sister who's 5 understands things are different and you need to keep away from others and why nanny and granddad have not been around much. Or why my wife was has not seen them for months and why she's missed his birthday.


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## Stephenite (26 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> In your circumstances, you would actually be better off catching it, then staying away from your household whilst you recover. That way, afterwards, you could be 100% sure you are not an infection danger to someone you come into contact with at high risk.


This reminds me of the 'medical advice' for hay fever from bloke-in-the-pub experts in the 80s:

Put your head in a haystack until the symptoms stop.


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## raleighnut (26 Jul 2020)

Stephenite said:


> This reminds me of the 'medical advice' for hay fever from bloke-in-the-pub experts in the 80s:
> 
> Put your head in a haystack until the symptoms stop.


That's similar for the surefire cure for seasickness,



Spoiler






Spoiler



Sit under a Tree.


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## a.twiddler (26 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> In your circumstances, you would actually be better off catching it, then staying away from your household whilst you recover. That way, afterwards, you could be 100% sure you are not an infection danger to someone you come into contact with at high risk.


To use an analogy with seasickness: when you first have it you are afraid you are going to die, but after you have had it a bit longer you are afraid that you won't. I have never had seasickness, airsickness or even hay fever. My wife does, and even though she loves her garden, it makes her life a misery for several months each year. Just because I don't suffer from any of these doesn't mean that I have no consideration for those who do.

Unfortunately for Skipdiverjohn's and others' simplistic and egocentred worldview there _are_ worse things than death. If he were not self aware enough to feel remorse and shame that his own actions or inactions might have led to the potential death, temporary or even permanent disability of another person, then the risk of it happening to him might motivate him to straighten up and fly right. You can waffle on for ever about percentage of risk etc but if the worst happens to you yourself that will seriously mess up your world. The worst being permanent disability, chronic pain and loss of independence, and having to depend on others for everything.

So for the foreseeable future this is the "new normal" and while things may get better over time it may never be as it was before. We need to accept that, take precautions to the best of our current knowledge, which can change, and adapt accordingly. For a population brought up on instant gratification, everything "on demand", promotion of individual rights over responsibilities, it will be hard, but it must be done.
Even so, we might anticipate a second wave if relaxation of lockdown measures is not carefully controlled.


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## srw (26 Jul 2020)

Stephenite said:


> So they'll be likely refused permission to travel abroad


I very much doubt it. Britain has few exit controls.


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## MntnMan62 (26 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Oh, and by the way, no self-respecting Englishman ever drinks the American version of Bud. It's shite. Even most of the British lager louts with very undiscerning tastes indeed don't drink it.



When I visited London and went to a pub for some hand drawn ale, or what you call cask ale, while waiting for the pour I looked around and realized that all the locals were drinking Bud. I asked the bartender why and he said “They like it.” And I swear you were in a corner trying to hide your Bud from full view. It’s ok John. Everyone else likes it so I guess you can too. No reason to be ashamed.


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## MntnMan62 (26 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> In your circumstances, you would actually be better off catching it, then staying away from your household whilst you recover. That way, afterwards, you could be 100% sure you are not an infection danger to someone you come into contact with at high risk.



This comment shows a complete and total lack of understanding of the virus and what it does to people. Keep up the good work skippy. You're doing great.


----------



## PK99 (26 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> As has been said many times, it is not death vs a bit of a cough. Despite being likely healthy enough not to end up in hospital, I do not want covid19. *Everyone I know who has had it *(none of whom have needed hospitalisation) *has said it has wiped them out for weeks*.
> We also do not know enough about immunity to say with any certainty that once you have had it you are immune and no longer a risk to others.



My wife (63) had it and it wiped her out for a week - in the same way a medium grade flu does

I (64) had it 5 days after she started and it wiped me out for 48 hours, then a few day later my sense of smell completely (sic) disappeared for a week.

A cycling colleague in mid 60's died

A local friend in 70's, was rough at home for a couple of weeks and is now back to normal.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Jul 2020)

Is it ok to fly to Spain if you're checking your eyesight?


----------



## DaveReading (26 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Is it ok to fly to Spain if you're checking your eyesight?



Not if you're the pilot.


----------



## srw (26 Jul 2020)

PK99 said:


> My wife (63) had it and it wiped her out for a week - in the same way a medium grade flu does
> 
> I (64) had it 5 days after she started and it wiped me out for 48 hours, then a few day later my sense of smell completely (sic) disappeared for a week.
> 
> ...


Lucky you. All of you.

Here's another story
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...im-still-dealing-with-pain-fatigue-and-misery - and there are plenty more like that.

...and there are tens of thousands of stories of dead people in this country alone.


----------



## mjr (28 Jul 2020)

Belgium back pedals on unlocking, due to the increase in cases in Antwerp, primarily. Number of people you can meet is cut from 15 to 5 (back to UK level), maximum sizes of public events cut in half to 200 outside and 100 indoors, private events to 10, the 30 minutes shopping limit is reintroduced and workers are begged to work from home. Town centre outdoor face covering is expected to spread but that's been delegated to mayors. Brussels's summer funfair has been cancelled.

It's also interesting the measures not taken: cinemas and gyms are encouraged but not required to keep visitor contact details, and there's no mention of reintroducing travel restrictions or forcing a local lockdown on Antwerp's conservative-nationalist mayor who is a leading player/obstacle in federal government coalition-building.

Belgium remains one of the countries with the most open statistics and closest matches between covid death estimates and excess deaths. They react much more quickly than Boris's eleven days urgency.


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## marinyork (28 Jul 2020)

What are the numbers per 100,000 apart from antwerp? Here it was reported 100 per 100,000.

The entire region of Aragon in Spain is 160 per 100,000.


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## mjr (28 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> What are the numbers per 100,000 apart from antwerp? Here it was reported 100 per 100,000.
> 
> The entire region of Aragon in Spain is 160 per 100,000.


100 and 160 what?

The figure motivating them is a weekly moving average of 279 new cases a day, in a population of about 11.5m, so that would be about 1680 new cases a day in a UK population. The UK currently has about 680.


----------



## marinyork (28 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> 100 and 160 what?
> 
> The figure motivating them is a weekly moving average of 279 new cases a day, in a population of about 11.5m, so that would be about 1680 new cases a day in a UK population. The UK currently has about 680.



7 day averages per day of cases of new infections.

Just a bit odd to me as I'm listening to the coverage about spain and virtually no one is talking about the figures, just how 'safe' Spain is.

The UK positive tests is about 700 but iirc projected to be 2800 per day.


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## mjr (28 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> 7 day averages per day of cases of new infections. [...]
> 
> The UK positive tests is about 700 but iirc projected to be 2800 per day.


True: I should have written the UK claims 680, given its reputation for inaccuracy.

So you can work out what you want from what I posted?

And what are the figures for Spain and its interesting bits?


----------



## marinyork (28 Jul 2020)

The numbers for the whole of Belgium don't interest me, they are about the same as where I live and were reported yesterday as the figures you said and as per 100,000. Antwerp, or divisions of Belgium I haven't seen. I wondered whether there was anywhere else as high as antwerp in a similar way Spanish representatives the last 3 days have been quoting national figures and sleight of hand not been mentioning figues for local ones (although they have been open on the number of outbreaks). 

I don't particularly have issue with the discrepency between test numbers and ONS numbers. It may be currently telling us test and trace isn't working and we have have mini superspreading events.


----------



## bitsandbobs (28 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> The numbers for the whole of Belgium don't interest me, they are about the same as where I live and were reported yesterday as the figures you said and as per 100,000. Antwerp, or divisions of Belgium I haven't seen. I wondered whether there was anywhere else as high as antwerp in a similar way Spanish representatives the last 3 days have been quoting national figures and sleight of hand not been mentioning figues for local ones (although they have been open on the number of outbreaks).
> 
> I don't particularly have issue with the discrepency between test numbers and ONS numbers. It may be currently telling us test and trace isn't working and we have have mini superspreading events.



There's nowhere else with numbers comparable to Antwerp. 

For the first time yesterday, someone asked me to put on a mask on the street - this in a residential area of Gent. There are certain streets in the centre where it's mandatory to wear a mask, even outside, but I'm pretty sure it's not a requirement where I was. Having said that, it's a job keeping up with the current rules at the moment given the decentralized nature of the regulations.


----------



## midlife (28 Jul 2020)

Here in Cumbria Track and Trace say about 20% of contact details given to pubs are false

Track and Trace cant actually "Track and Trace" so they have to name the pubs in the local papers instead !

https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/...rith-pubs-specific-times-told-get-covid-test/


----------



## marinyork (28 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Here in Cumbria Track and Trace say about 20% of contact details given to pubs are false
> 
> Track and Trace cant actually "Track and Trace" so they have to name the pubs in the local papers instead !
> 
> https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/...rith-pubs-specific-times-told-get-covid-test/



That's actually how aspects of it should work.

I have been a bit worried by the stuff I've seen reported for pubs/contact tracing elsewhere where it appears there's just a massive data dump where everyone who visit an establishment on a day is told to self isolate for fourteen days. There was a bit of argy bargy between skipdriverjohn and bromptonbruce the other day on this which reflects public trust.

If someone is deemed high risk i.e. less than 2 metres distance from someone confirmed as having it for more than 15 minutes and particularly inside they should be tested. This is the complete nonsense of the UK approach. They may have to be tested 2-3 days later or a second time until the virus would show up, but they need to be tested as in other countries. If the public suspect massive data dumps where everyone on a particular day is told to self isolate for 14 days even if they test negative then the economy will collapse or people will not follow the rules.


----------



## marinyork (28 Jul 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> There's nowhere else with numbers comparable to Antwerp.
> 
> For the first time yesterday, someone asked me to put on a mask on the street - this in a residential area of Gent. There are certain streets in the centre where it's mandatory to wear a mask, even outside, but I'm pretty sure it's not a requirement where I was. Having said that, it's a job keeping up with the current rules at the moment given the decentralized nature of the regulations.



That's good if no where is as high as Antwerp.

There's a lot of inconsistency in comparing places, for example a lot of these Spanish places have rates not much lower than cities that were 'worrying' to people in the UK on this board and elsewhere. The UK media outlet tends to quote the overall national rate such as for Belgium and Spain which is stoking a lot of jolly holiday anger on UK media at the moment and a lot of other people who are having a lot to deal with isolating or trying to travel back. There was also a lot of wrangles between Portugal and the UK and the true picture shows more consistency by the UK government and Foreign office than first appears.

I do think Italy's numbers are probably a little problematic in terms of where testing is located and how much is going on.


----------



## fossyant (28 Jul 2020)

Oldham is extending restrictions to avoid a lockdown - big rise in cases

https://www.oldham.gov.uk/coronavirus


----------



## byegad (28 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Here in Cumbria Track and Trace say about 20% of contact details given to pubs are false
> 
> Track and Trace cant actually "Track and Trace" so they have to name the pubs in the local papers instead !
> 
> https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/...rith-pubs-specific-times-told-get-covid-test/


Well naming the pub is a Good Move to me. Our 'local' reopened at 06.00h on the Saturday and by 18.00h that day was closed by the police because, in the words of a copper I know.....'They were taking the piss!'
I know people are not enjoying the restrictions but to let the ignorant and selfish take undue risks that will infect others is not on.


----------



## mjr (28 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> The numbers for the whole of Belgium don't interest me, they are about the same as where I live and were reported yesterday as the figures you said and as per 100,000. Antwerp, or divisions of Belgium I haven't seen. I wondered whether there was anywhere else as high as antwerp in a similar way Spanish representatives the last 3 days have been quoting national figures and sleight of hand not been mentioning figues for local ones (although they have been open on the number of outbreaks).


AFP articles say Antwerp accounts for about half of Belgium's cases. Example https://www.thejournal.ie/belgium-antwerp-coronavirus-5161601-Jul2020/

If that's the city and not the same-named province, Antwerp has about 140 new cases a day in 521'000 people, or about 27 per 100'000.


----------



## mjr (28 Jul 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> There's nowhere else with numbers comparable to Antwerp.
> 
> For the first time yesterday, someone asked me to put on a mask on the street - this in a residential area of Gent. There are certain streets in the centre where it's mandatory to wear a mask, even outside, but I'm pretty sure it's not a requirement where I was. Having said that, it's a job keeping up with the current rules at the moment given the decentralized nature of the regulations.


Compulsory mask areas should be displaying a white-on-blue circular sign showing a masked face, often plastic cable-tied to lampposts, but something. It's now a mayoral power AIUI.


----------



## tom73 (28 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Here in Cumbria Track and Trace say about 20% of contact details given to pubs are false
> 
> Track and Trace cant actually "Track and Trace" so they have to name the pubs in the local papers instead !
> 
> https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/...rith-pubs-specific-times-told-get-covid-test/


Always going to be a problem some just don't see the point in any of this. But with no data controls in place some who do once they see all they have. Is a pen and and bit of paper at the door that lords knows who get's to see will sadly make a few willing sole think twice.
It's just another area of lack of confidence in the whole test and trace process. As I understand it the data if required by PHE the pub ect has to enter them on central system. So on top of false information this could also lead to errors. Now if it was just all thought out and joined up it could a pre booking requirement that each person enters the information before they arrive. So no one see the data and it's secure it would help add confidence in the process. Once done they get sent confirmation which they have to show at the pub door. Now that would require a bit of thinking and planning which the government is not keen on.


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## mjr (28 Jul 2020)

Not only would it require thinking and planning, but it'd kill casual pub and cafe visits stone dead and drive even more out of business.

I think it would be better to prohibit pubs sharing personal data unless there's a confirmed case. At the minute, with all the stuff about twenty years data retention, "track and trace" is a toxic brand.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (28 Jul 2020)

Must make the organisation of pub crawls a bit difficult.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (29 Jul 2020)

Apparently there's a Newsnight tonight dealing with the origins of the ''lockdown fatigue'' notion that led the UK to delay going into lockdown. I caught the Radio 5pm programme discussing it and it didn't seem clear who was responsible for feeding the notion into government thinking. And, of course, nobody now seems to own this unproven theory that led to thousands of otherwise preventable deaths. BBC2, 22:45.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Jul 2020)

^ https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000l9x0/newsnight-29072020 - a short quote in the first minute and then at 14:27mins in.


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## tom73 (30 Jul 2020)

Official self isolation period now 10 day 
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...tension-of-self-isolation-period-30-july-2020
Wise move and for once a proactive one which have been a bit thin on the ground. 
The more we find out and learn about covid and how contagious this is extended the use of face covers in other public spacers. Will need updated well before winter if. If we want to keep case numbers down along with upping the public health message going hard now will save a lot of time later. Things are starting to slip a bit too quickly at the moment.


----------



## marinyork (30 Jul 2020)

New restrictions in some of the north of England

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53602362


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## mjr (30 Jul 2020)

Mixed messages continue:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/zoomlanders/status/1288873853092061194


----------



## classic33 (30 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> New restrictions in some of the north of England
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53602362


Don't hold out much hope for this area, one of those listed, going by the councils record so far.


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## mjr (30 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> New restrictions in some of the north of England
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53602362


"Separate households will not be allowed to meet indoors in Greater Manchester, East Lancashire and parts of West Yorkshire from midnight, the government has announced. He also said the same restrictions will apply to the city of Leicester."

Not going to enforce that, are they?


----------



## DCLane (30 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> New restrictions in some of the north of England
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53602362



That covers my area - but where I am has basically no cases. 

It's down to certain groups meeting up - and it's known exactly who and where they are. They won't take any notice of this, just as they haven't before.


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## midlife (30 Jul 2020)

Tried to get the meaning of what to do in pubs in those areas. No intentional meeting?


----------



## marinyork (30 Jul 2020)

classic33 said:


> Don't hold out much hope for this area, one of those listed, going by the councils record so far.



I don't hold out that much hope when you look around the world at places with more outbreaks, of which they aren't necessarily being talked about on the news as one area is focussed on and then another.


----------



## DCLane (30 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Tried to get the meaning of what to do in pubs in those areas. No intentional meeting?



One household only in pubs/restaurants. More than one then it's a 'no'.


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## Beebo (30 Jul 2020)

You can’t meet friends at home anymore, but you can still meet them at the pub. 
brilliant!
Anyone who doesn’t care will carry on as usual. It’s always the same, the Minority of idiots ruin it for the sensible majority.


----------



## mjr (30 Jul 2020)

DCLane said:


> One household only in pubs/restaurants. More than one then it's a 'no'.


That's going to shut lots, isn't it?


----------



## PK99 (30 Jul 2020)

DCLane said:


> That covers my area - but where I am has basically no cases.
> 
> It's down to certain groups meeting up - and it's known exactly who and where they are. They won't take any notice of this, just as they haven't before.



That is rather cryptic.

Who are these certain groups?


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## tom73 (30 Jul 2020)

Beebo said:


> You can’t meet friends at home anymore, but you can still meet them at the pub.
> brilliant!
> Anyone who doesn’t care will carry on as usual. It’s always the same, the Minority of idiots ruin it for the sensible majority.


The wording says it's covers all in door areas so you can't meet up unless it's outdoors.


----------



## DCLane (30 Jul 2020)

PK99 said:


> That is rather cryptic.
> 
> Who are these certain groups?



It's Eid this weekend and Moslems in the areas specified will be celebrating Eid-al-Adha by visiting each others' houses.

The figures in Kirklees (my area) show concentrations of cases in three specific areas, which also correspond to high BAME (almost entirely Moslem) populations and a large Romanian/Hungarian population who are working in the bed factories/meat processing. It's been covered in local media, together with cultural leaders, for several weeks asking them to stop meeting up.



tom73 said:


> The wording says it's covers all in door areas so you can't meet up unless it's outdoors.



It apparently covers private gardens as well: https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news...onavirus-yorkshire-bradford-kirklees-18692041


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## marinyork (30 Jul 2020)

DCLane said:


> It's Eid this weekend and Moslems in the areas specified will be celebrating Eid-al-Adha by visiting each others' houses.
> 
> The figures in Kirklees (my area) show concentrations of cases in three specific areas, which also correspond to high BAME (almost entirely Moslem) populations and a large Romanian/Hungarian population who are working in the bed factories/meat processing. It's been covered in local media, together with cultural leaders, for several weeks asking them to stop meeting up.
> 
> It apparently covers private gardens as well: https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news...onavirus-yorkshire-bradford-kirklees-18692041



What were the latest ONS deaths in these areas that went to the end of June?

One of the districts here had 66 deaths in such a small area, absolutely horrific.


----------



## classic33 (30 Jul 2020)

DCLane said:


> One household only in pubs/restaurants. More than one then it's a 'no'.


A long winded way of saying they've to shut, again?


----------



## DCLane (30 Jul 2020)

classic33 said:


> A long winded way of saying they've to shut, again?



Not necessarily. If it's one family/household then they can go.


----------



## classic33 (30 Jul 2020)

DCLane said:


> Not necessarily. If it's one family/household then they can go.


There won't be many opening to just one household though, they'd not survive.


Local rumour mill has one of the council members testing positive, but still attending the Town Hall.


----------



## RoadRider400 (30 Jul 2020)

Bit of a worry this is happening in the height of summer. How are we going to get through the whole of winter?


----------



## classic33 (30 Jul 2020)

And it Yorkshire Day on Saturday. 
Piece Hall has already been rebooked for this. Will they hold off until after, or loose the money paid by not allowing it to re-open.


----------



## marinyork (30 Jul 2020)

classic33 said:


> There won't be many opening to just one household though, they'd not survive.
> 
> Local rumour mill has one of the council members testing positive, but still attending the Town Hall.



These things are going to be reviewed every week. If the numbers are stubborn like Leicester it wouldn't be a surprise if next week some things are closed by regulation.


----------



## classic33 (30 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> These things are going to be reviewed every week. If the numbers are stubborn like Leicester it wouldn't be a surprise if next week some things are closed by regulation.


There's town centre pubs being shut two -three times a week, because they've failed to keep to the rules. 

We're up 19 on the last time? for confirmed cases. Kirklees is up 10.


----------



## tom73 (30 Jul 2020)

DCLane said:


> It's Eid this weekend and Moslems in the areas specified will be celebrating Eid-al-Adha by visiting each others' houses.
> 
> The figures in Kirklees (my area) show concentrations of cases in three specific areas, which also correspond to high BAME (almost entirely Moslem) populations and a large Romanian/Hungarian population who are working in the bed factories/meat processing. It's been covered in local media, together with cultural leaders, for several weeks asking them to stop meeting up.
> 
> ...



Yes it look's that way from the reports i've seen sensible to include private areas it's always been open to abuse.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (30 Jul 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Bit of a worry this is happening in the height of summer. How are we going to get through the whole of winter?


I'm in Scotland. What is this "summer" of which you speak?


----------



## classic33 (30 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I'm in Scotland. What is this "summer" of which you speak?


The days have a bit more daylight, and the chance of snow isn't as high as the start & end of the year.


----------



## Adam4868 (30 Jul 2020)

Looks like Kirklees wasn't even in on it...

View: https://twitter.com/KirkleesCouncil/status/1288957453141508097?s=19


----------



## tom73 (30 Jul 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Bit of a worry this is happening in the height of summer. How are we going to get through the whole of winter?



We can't without some real , clear , consistent public health messaging. Bring in face covering in all inclosed areas and opening up testing to all with or without symptoms Which is accessible to everyone not just drive though but full time walk in with or without booking. Allowing Local public health to truly lead this from the ground up they know what's going on and what areas area are becoming an issue. 
Independent SAGE have suggested that pubs that have indoor areas only be closed and only allow outdoor drinking only. Which is not a bad idea. In the next few weeks a few things by have to change opening up is a risky business and needs to watched carefully and need's very quick, proactive action when it's going south.


----------



## classic33 (30 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> We can't without some real , clear , consistent public health messaging. Bring in face covering in all inclosed areas and opening up testing to all with or without symptoms Which is accessible to everyone not just drive though but full time walk in with or without booking. Allowing Local public health to truly lead this from the ground up they know what's going on and what areas area are becoming an issue.
> Independent SAGE have suggested that pubs that have indoor areas only be closed and only allow outdoor drinking only. Which is not a bad idea. In the next few weeks a few things by have to change opening up is a risky business and needs to watched carefully and need's very quick, proactive action when it's going south.


With regards the testing, a better record needs to be kept of those tested. My result was texted back with a different name to what was given by me. As far as I know, the only correct details they have is the phone number the text was sent to.


----------



## classic33 (30 Jul 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Looks like Kirklees wasn't even in on it...
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/KirkleesCouncil/status/1288957453141508097?s=19



Calderdale council have nothing on their twitter feed about it either.


----------



## rualexander (31 Jul 2020)

No covid 19 deaths in Scotland now for two weeks.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (31 Jul 2020)

marinyork said:


> I have been a bit worried by the stuff I've seen reported for pubs/contact tracing elsewhere where it appears there's just a massive data dump where everyone who visit an establishment on a day is told to self isolate for fourteen days. There was a bit of argy bargy between skipdriverjohn and bromptonbruce the other day on this which reflects public trust........
> If the public suspect massive data dumps where everyone on a particular day is told to self isolate for 14 days even if they test negative then the economy will collapse or people will not follow the rules.



That's exactly the reason why neither I, nor anyone I drink with, is prepared to submit our contact details to the government when going out for a beer. That's our decision based on the fact none of us fancy being told what to do on a crude, non-targeted, blunderbuss basis without even proving that we actually have the virus and are carriers. If they want to give me a virus test, and then pay me my full wages for two weeks if I test positive and they want me to isolate, that's fair enough and I would have no issue with cooperating.

What they have implemented though, is a crude "you might have come into contact with someone who has the virus, so we want you to stay home for two weeks and not be able to earn a living or go about your business, and BTW you have to bear the cost" regime.
I'm not at all impressed how track & trace is being done. If someone in my local comes down with the virus, the logical thing would be to send out the testers to visit the pub and offer all the regulars an on the spot test - and guarantee that anyone testing positive would get 100% of their regular wages paid if asked to isolate. That would work as no-one would be any worse off by co-operating. The system they have got, you are personally better off staying anonymous and refusing to give the government any information, which undermines the effectiveness of the tracing scheme.


----------



## classic33 (31 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> That's exactly the reason why neither I, nor anyone I drink with, is prepared to submit our contact details to the government when going out for a beer. That's our decision based on the fact none of us fancy being told what to do on a crude, non-targeted, blunderbuss basis without even proving that we actually have the virus and are carriers. If they want to give me a virus test, and then pay me my full wages for two weeks if I test positive and they want me to isolate, that's fair enough and I would have no issue with cooperating.
> 
> What they have implemented though, is a crude "you might have come into contact with someone who has the virus, so we want you to stay home for two weeks and not be able to earn a living or go about your business, and BTW you have to bear the cost" regime.
> I'm not at all impressed how track & trace is being done. If someone in my local comes down with the virus, the logical thing would be to send out the testers to visit the pub and offer all the regulars an on the spot test - and guarantee that anyone testing positive would get 100% of their regular wages paid if asked to isolate. That would work as no-one would be any worse off by co-operating. The system they have got, you are personally better off staying anonymous and refusing to give the government any information, which undermines the effectiveness of the tracing scheme.


Suppose you were in a building where there'd been a case of food poisoning, or Weils Disease. The owners tried to contact everyone who was present, but you having refused to give your details/gave false details couldn't be contacted to be treated. Who would you blame?


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (31 Jul 2020)

If I get food poisoning or Weil's disease I'll soon know all about it myself, as both of those conditions have obvious symptoms. I won't need anyone to tell me I've caught something nasty. Neither are spread by airborne transmission either. You need to eat something dodgy, or the Weil's infection has to enter via skin cut or mucus membranes.


----------



## classic33 (31 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If I get food poisoning or Weil's disease I'll soon know all about it myself, as both of those conditions have obvious symptoms. I won't need anyone to tell me I've caught something nasty. Neither are spread by airborne transmission either. You need to eat something dodgy, or the Weil's infection has to enter via skin cut or mucus membranes.


For the purpose of contact details, how something is transmitted isn't relevant.

What is, is that contact can be made to inform you. In the case of Weil's Disease, the earlier it's tested for the better your chances. An easy way of catching it is by drinking from "dirty" bottles or cans. Bottles being popular in some pubs.


----------



## classic33 (31 Jul 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If I get food poisoning or Weil's disease I'll soon know all about it myself, as both of those conditions have obvious symptoms. I won't need anyone to tell me I've caught something nasty. Neither are spread by airborne transmission either. You need to eat something dodgy, or the Weil's infection has to enter via skin cut or mucus membranes.


For the purpose of contact details, how something is transmitted isn't relevant.

What is, is that contact can be made to inform you. In the case of Weil's Disease, the earlier it's tested for the better your chances. An easy way of catching it is by drinking from "dirty" bottles or cans. Bottles being popular in some pubs.

Who would you blame if they couldn't contact you was the question though.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (31 Jul 2020)

classic33 said:


> In the case of Weil's Disease, the earlier it's tested for the better your chances. An easy way of catching it is by drinking from "dirty" bottles or cans. Bottles being popular in some pubs.



I'm very familiar with Weil's disease, as I come into contact with potential sources of infection regularly. In fact I take it a lot more seriously than the coronavirus. 
As an ale drinker, I don't touch bottles in pubs. Anything I consume comes out of a handpump or even directly out of the barrel via gravity.


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## Julia9054 (31 Jul 2020)

On the 10 day isolation thingy, if I start with symptoms, begin my Isolation and test negative, can I go back to work or do I have to stay off for the full 10 days just in case


----------



## mjr (31 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> On the 10 day isolation thingy, if I start with symptoms, begin my Isolation and test negative, can I go back to work or do I have to stay off for the full 10 days just in case


In other countries, you'd need two negative tests in a row.

No idea what the UK does. So I know as much as a govt minister.


----------



## mjr (31 Jul 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Bit of a worry this is happening in the height of summer. How are we going to get through the whole of winter?


Some of us aren't


----------



## mjr (31 Jul 2020)

So why is Matt HanCOCK wearing a badge with NHS on the flag of just-added-to-quarantine Luxembourg? Troll?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> So why is Matt HanCOCK wearing a badge with NHS on the flag of just-added-to-quarantine Luxembourg? Troll?
> View attachment 538953


Whit?


----------



## Julia9054 (31 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> In other countries, you'd need two negative tests in a row.
> 
> No idea what the UK does. So I know as much as a govt minister.


Just thinking about school in September. Boring viruses such as colds are rife in schools. Teachers - particularly shiny new ones and ones new to the area - get them all the time. In my department of 16, I would say there are probably minimum 3 people with a cold at any given time. Imagine trying to staff a school with that number of people off for 10 days each time.


----------



## CanucksTraveller (31 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> So why is Matt HanCOCK wearing a badge with NHS on the flag of just-added-to-quarantine Luxembourg? Troll?
> View attachment 538953


Luxembourg? Is your eyesight okay, that's the same rainbow one he's been wearing throughout.

Luxembourg top, NHS rainbow bottom:


----------



## PK99 (31 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Just thinking about school in September. Boring viruses such as colds are rife in schools. Teachers - particularly shiny new ones and ones new to the area - get them all the time. In my department of 16, I would say there are probably minimum 3 people with a cold at any given time. Imagine trying to staff a school with that number of people off for 10 days each time.



This topic is addressed here:

https://www.pasteur.fr/en/press-are...transmission-among-children-students-teachers

and here

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7268273/

and here

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html


----------



## marinyork (31 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> In other countries, you'd need two negative tests in a row.
> 
> No idea what the UK does. So I know as much as a govt minister.



Full ten days. No exceptions.

There was an academic report out this week modelling options. It was rumoured the govt may plump for test on day 7, release on day 8 if negative and this would catch 94% of cases. It has been argued about elsewhere but double tests on day 1 and day 5 and release on day six would catch 88% of cases. It should be the model used for medium risk contacts who are second nodes. Also imho for SOME places not on the air corridor.


----------



## tom73 (31 Jul 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> On the 10 day isolation thingy, if I start with symptoms, begin my Isolation and test negative, can I go back to work or do I have to stay off for the full 10 days just in case


I believe you'd still need to do the 10 day's one test is not a full guarantee your clear.


----------



## mjr (31 Jul 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Luxembourg? Is your eyesight okay, that's the same rainbow one he's been wearing throughout.


No, eyesight still farked, especially colour perception. Thanks for asking(!)

I still think it's not clear in SD video.

And last time I had the misfortune to see him, he was wearing a 1984esque "CARE" badge.


----------



## marinyork (31 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> I believe you'd still need to do the 10 day's one test is not a full guarantee your clear.



I misread that, but it applies to three sets of circumstances.

If the government haven't changed the other bits of the guidance from a month or so ago, if you are the first node then if you get a negative test you are released. If you are a second node you aren't. If you are from a non-air corridor you aren't. Of course the nonsense of this is you have no idea nor does the govt what the true picture is so individuals should be extremely cautious, but get tested after a few days.

With them going on about 500 000 tests a day now they really should be moving towards double testing. Second node testing winds me up as apparently that is happening as a matter of course now to encourage people to isolate. You might as well change the policy then!


----------



## tom73 (31 Jul 2020)

classic33 said:


> With regards the testing, a better record needs to be kept of those tested. My result was texted back with a different name to what was given by me. As far as I know, the only correct details they have is the phone number the text was sent to.


That's what you get with this total mess of bit's NHS and bit's private. Lab's don't joined up, results not able to be added to the Patient records quickly. Private side not passing on results. ect , ect. At the root of all this is the total carve up of public health, it's professionals , it's lab net work and it's budget. it's been slowly all killed off by clowns of all colours for decades. 

Then we have the continuing joke of having a kit basically pushed though the car window and your expected to carry out the test. If your really not well you've no hope of following the instructions. That swob has to go a good way in to have any hope of being effective. We need trained HCP's doing them for everyone. Some counties even developing ones have someone trained going all the testing. Why we can't is just down to chasing numbers and not how good to make the testing. Lord's knows what the fail rate of self tests are as they don't publish any date on how this whole thing is not working.


----------



## CanucksTraveller (31 Jul 2020)

mjr said:


> No, eyesight still farked, especially colour perception. Thanks for asking(!)
> 
> I still think it's not clear in SD video.
> 
> And last time I had the misfortune to see him, he was wearing a 1984esque "CARE" badge.



Ah, maybe it's colour perception! It's clear to me, even from the screenshot. 

Yes he's flipped between the rainbow and the "CARE" badge often.


----------



## classic33 (31 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's what you get with this total mess of bit's NHS and bit's private. Lab's don't joined up, results not able to be added to the Patient records quickly. Private side not passing on results. ect , ect. At the root of all this is the total carve up of public health, it's professionals , it's lab net work and it's budget. it's been slowly all killed off by clowns of all colours for decades.
> 
> Then we have the continuing joke of having a kit basically pushed though the car window and your expected to carry out the test. If your really not well you've no hope of following the instructions. That swob has to go a good way in to have any hope of being effective. We need trained HCP's doing them for everyone. Some counties even developing ones have someone trained going all the testing. Why we can't is just down to chasing numbers and not how good to make the testing. Lord's knows what the fail rate of self tests are as they don't publish any date on how this whole thing is not working.


I'm wondering if I got someone else's results, the person named on the text. And if that's the case, what was the result of my test and who got that.


----------



## tom73 (31 Jul 2020)

classic33 said:


> I'm wondering if I got someone else's results, the person named on the text. And if that's the case, what was the result of my test and who got that.


You may well have which is worrying and you can bet your not the only one. After all data was never Dido's strong point. 
Have you double checked what result your GP got sent or indeed if they ever got a result ?


----------



## classic33 (31 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> You may well have which is worrying and you can bet your not the only one. After all data was never Dido's strong point.
> Have you double checked what result your GP got sent or indeed if they ever got a result ?


Currently unable to check, urgent only, which I respect.

119, say it's only the details given that have been used. Despite having to spell the name out when phoning the first time.


----------



## Julia9054 (31 Jul 2020)

PK99 said:


> This topic is addressed here:
> 
> https://www.pasteur.fr/en/press-are...transmission-among-children-students-teachers
> 
> ...


No help at all for a member of staff with respiratory symptoms trying to decide if they are going down with a cold or with covid 19


----------



## tom73 (31 Jul 2020)

So go out on the bike get back and it's all kicking off. The government look to be listening to what they are being told and being proactive. 
They said they would pull back and they have have which is a good move. Acting now will give time to see what the bigger picture is. 
More areas needing face coverings is long over due should have been done from day one.


----------



## midlife (31 Jul 2020)

Hands, face, space. Get a test. 
Now that’s catchy !


----------



## tom73 (31 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Hands, face, space. Get a test.
> Now that’s catchy !


At least it's got more sense than stay alert.


----------



## Mugshot (31 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Hands, face, space.


camera. TV.


----------



## PK99 (31 Jul 2020)

tom73 said:


> At least it's got more sense than stay alert.



I disagree.

All personal safety is achieved by staying alert to hazards or potential dangers and acting accordingly. 
As cyclists, we all should be more attuned to the concept than most folks.

I stay alert:
I do not go to crowded places. 
I choose carefully the shops/restaurants/pubs I use
I avoid touching anything with my hands - buttons at road crossings I operate with my elbow. Ditto doors.
I carry and use in shops a face mask
On the street, if someone insists on passing too close I stop breathing for a few paces before and after they pass.
I use hand sanitizer at shop entrances. 

etc

STAY ALERT


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## classic33 (31 Jul 2020)

Well three households are in one, having another C19 party.

The new rules are being kept well it seems.


----------



## mjr (31 Jul 2020)

midlife said:


> Hands, face, space. Get a test.
> Now that’s catchy !


Hands, face, space, knees and toes, knees and toes!


----------



## mjr (31 Jul 2020)

PK99 said:


> I avoid touching anything with my hands - buttons at road crossings I operate with my elbow.


Either you've got a different design of road crossing button near you or your elbows are very pointy! Ours have the button inset in a metal ring to stop most blown debris hitting it.


----------



## Rezillo (31 Jul 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:

I'm betting social media in 1940 would have been ... interesting.



Rezillo said:


> I have been thinking much the same.
> 
> "This report from the Spectator proves that vehicle and living room lights can't be seen from German bombing heights".
> 
> #proudtobelituplikeaxmastree



Well, Private Eye has caught up and elaborated on the theme:


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (1 Aug 2020)

If only we had such a role as an ARP warden for the Covid crisis.


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## brodiej (1 Aug 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> No help at all for a member of staff with respiratory symptoms trying to decide if they are going down with a cold or with covid 19



As a parent of a KS1 pupil with a second one starting reception in September I agree

I think in week 1 of term one of them will get a cold. If they cough or have a high temperature the whole house should self isolate for 14 days. I imagine trying to swab a sick 5 year old will be hard and have a higher than usual false negative and I think everyone has to continue isolating even with a negative test.

This needs to repeat every time every time anyone in the house gets a cough.

Even if the coronavirus is not spread much in schools there will be a lot of families isolating plus whole classes sent home when teachers go off.

The only answer if possible would be to test for other common cold viruses

A positive test saying you have a cold would reassure more than a negative coronavirus test which may be a false negative


----------



## Julia9054 (1 Aug 2020)

brodiej said:


> As a parent of a KS1 pupil with a second one starting reception in September I agree
> 
> I think in week 1 of term one of them will get a cold. If they cough or have a high temperature the whole house should self isolate for 14 days. I imagine trying to swab a sick 5 year old will be hard and have a higher than usual false negative and I think everyone has to continue isolating even with a negative test.
> 
> ...


In the two weeks before lockdown, our school was open to only 4 of the 7 year groups. This was because of the number of staff self isolating with respiratory symptoms or who had someone in their household with symptoms. This was before testing but I am sure that most of these were not Covid 19 but just the normal run of the mill stuff.


----------



## Rezillo (1 Aug 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> If only we had such a role as an ARP warden for the Covid crisis.



Hodges would be rushing about shouting "Oi - put that mask on"


----------



## Mugshot (1 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> Hands, face, space, knees and toes, knees and toes!



View: https://twitter.com/UKDemockery/status/1289213280024633344?s=20


----------



## MartinQ (1 Aug 2020)

Mugshot said:


> View: https://twitter.com/UKDemockery/status/1289213280024633344?s=20




Mr Tumble or Bumbling Boris?
Not hard to work out who'd do a better job.


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## marinyork (3 Aug 2020)

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/

scientist thinks cases aren't going up, as there's been a huge increase in testing in July (80,000 per day to 120,000 per day). Also huge amounts of testing as reactions to cases that are discovered.


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## srw (4 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/
> 
> scientist thinks cases aren't going up, as there's been a huge increase in testing in July (80,000 per day to 120,000 per day). Also huge amounts of testing as reactions to cases that are discovered.


The increase in cases, early in July, preceded the spike in testing at the end. I don't think he's reading the graphs right, and has used the highly sophisticated method of getting a ruler out and drawing a straight line. 

All the DHSC data is currently here: https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases

Meanwhile ONS estimates a substantial increase in community cases, using methods which are not dependent on the number of tests. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...naviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/31july2020


----------



## Adam4868 (4 Aug 2020)

I don't think we're anywhere near ready to send kids back to school.Here in Blackpool I've never seen it as busy ! Everyone from around the north west in lockdown have decided to come.Pubs queueing,social distancing is a thing of the past.How are we not going to get a huge spike when the schools reopen ?


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## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> I don't think we're anywhere near ready to send kids back to school.Here in Blackpool I've never seen it as busy ! Everyone from around the north west in lockdown have decided to come.Pubs queueing,social distancing is a thing of the past.How are we not going to get a huge spike when the schools reopen ?


I haven't been following the local lockdown rules but is there no travel restrictions within the rules to try and stop that? The Scottish government has already issued guidance for us not to travel into these areas, and I have a meeting in Durham (no joke and not to test my eyesight) next week and Lancashire 2 weeks later. 

As for the schools, they open up here before they do with you and it's looking increasingly likely that at least some pubs may have to close again.


----------



## Adam4868 (4 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> I haven't been following the local lockdown rules but is there no travel restrictions within the rules to try and stop that? The Scottish government has already issued guidance for us not to travel into these areas, and I have a meeting in Durham (no joke and not to test my eyesight) next week and Lancashire 2 weeks later.
> 
> As for the schools, they open up here before they do with you and it's looking increasingly likely that at least some pubs may have to close again.


No travel restrictions as far as I know.You can do what you want.The trains have been rammed,standing at weekend.


----------



## marinyork (4 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> No travel restrictions as far as I know.You can do what you want.The trains have been rammed,standing at weekend.



Went into town yesterday as part of preparation of going back to the office. Wetherspoons was insanely rammed by the looks of it.

I went inside a coffee shop and stayed in. It was all right but won't be doing it often. That one was a lot quieter than the other coffee shops.


----------



## tom73 (4 Aug 2020)

The picture in prisons is not improving as soon as Mrs 73 sorts one problem something else happens. The cases to date are low but it's more down to luck than anything else. Cases within health care staff are low most are within the prison staff but still no PPE for them. But at least some new social distance floor stickers arrived. That will sort it won't it ? Last week she sent out 4 prisoners to hospital so that's 8 officers who routinely work in close contact with over 1000 others with no PPE. Who may be carrying the virus having to be in close contact with others outside the prison. 
A few week's ago Mrs 73 got told to go home and get teated as a on officer she been in close contact with teated positive. lucky it turned out to be a false alarm. New prisoners isolating for 14 days has now totally broken down they should have clear obs at day 14 before they get moved. A few weeks ago prison staff started pushing for the obs to be done early so they can move them out onto the wings. They reported it and got it stopped. Now they've got round it they just move them when they want. So Mrs 73 went looking for government guidelines turns out they don't have any. Routine testing is still not in place for staff or prisoners. So it's not looking good as they start to open up both internally within the wider prison service and wider public. This week face to face visiting is starting health care have not been told anything or asked for advice. But yet in guard room they display the covid secure (print off and sign) certificate.


----------



## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> No travel restrictions as far as I know.You can do what you want.The trains have been rammed,standing at weekend.


Probably another example of rules that don't make sense.


----------



## tom73 (4 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Went into town yesterday as part of preparation of going back to the office. Wetherspoons was insanely rammed by the looks of it.
> 
> I went inside a coffee shop and stayed in. It was all right but won't be doing it often. That one was a lot quieter than the other coffee shops.



It's the eat out and get covid for half price government voucher that look's to be pushing even more into the pubs. Just at the time when things are starting to warm up and still no real understanding of all the extra data all this testing is making.


----------



## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's the eat out and get covid for half price government voucher that look's to be pushing even more into the pubs. Just at the time when things are starting to warm up and still no real understanding of all the extra data all this testing is making.


This is another incentive that I just don't get. I know there is a difference between pubs and restaurants but breakouts seem to centre around these settings so why encourage us out? I had a couple of beers in a beer garden the first day they opened up here, but haven't been back since and don't intend to and a tenner off isn't going to change that.


----------



## marinyork (4 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's the eat out and get covid for half price government voucher that look's to be pushing even more into the pubs. Just at the time when things are starting to warm up and still no real understanding of all the extra data all this testing is making.



I worry the scientists are right, that the clusters in northern cities aren't as such that and that the virus is everywhere spread in England at higher rates than appears at a resolution of boroughs. Is it just random ONS testing is picking up things which are then amplified as testing piles into a particular geographic area?

Have to see on these mobile testers that can also do saliva tests. That would add a lot of capacity for the autumn. On one saliva test I am puzzled because I believe they have a lot of data, but I don't think it's been published and peer reviewed yet.


----------



## PK99 (4 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> This is another incentive that I just don't get. I know there is a difference between pubs and restaurants but breakouts seem to centre around these settings so why encourage us out? I had a couple of beers in a beer garden the first day they opened up here, but haven't been back since and don't intend to and a tenner off isn't going to change that.



We have lunched out in pubs 4/5 times over the past week - we have decorators in the kitchen.

All were Youngs Pubs 
Very few people in there - but table arrangements would have ensured distancing had there been more
COVID protections all in place and unobtrusive
Ordering and paying via an App was contact-free.
Cutlery brought to the table on a tray
Drinks and food brought to the table on a tray and not handled by server


----------



## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> We have lunched out in pubs 4/5 times over the past week - we have decorators in the kitchen.
> 
> All were Youngs Pubs
> Very few people in there - but table arrangements would have ensured distancing had there been more
> ...


Yeah, I get that some people are working very hard to ensure compliance, but compliance just means cases reach an acceptable level, not complete safety and from where I am, the one or two spikes are coming from hospitality in one form or another. I just see it as a risk that I can do without right now. We are all doing our own risk assessments.


----------



## tom73 (4 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> I worry the scientists are right, that the clusters in northern cities aren't as such that and that the virus is everywhere spread in England at higher rates than appears at a resolution of boroughs. Is it just random ONS testing is picking up things which are then amplified as testing piles into a particular geographic area?
> 
> Have to see on these mobile testers that can also do saliva tests. That would add a lot of capacity for the autumn. On one saliva test I am puzzled because I believe they have a lot of data, but I don't think it's been published and peer reviewed yet.


This is the thing we still don't have no one government over seeing this and really drilling into the data and then leading the local actions required. Unlocking is not a simple process and is messy without clear understanding of what's going on in the ground. The clear ground between Whitty and co and the government is becoming even more open. At the last briefing he made it clear to everyone that you can forget the government rosy picture of opening up and it's all ok. He also said it's not a second wave which sounds to be backed up from others who think it's more to do with the tail end of the first. As unlike other counties we never really forced it right down in lock down. Which is not a bad call given the testing was way off what we needed for a detailed picture. 

The saliva test looks to have gone on the back burner and may go with same way as the app. Now Hancock yesterday moved onto the next "game changer". Which we are told is great and will be just what we need but with no published data to back it up either.


----------



## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> We have lunched out in pubs 4/5 times over the past week - we have decorators in the kitchen.
> 
> All were Youngs Pubs
> Very few people in there - but table arrangements would have ensured distancing had there been more
> ...


The beer garden I was in on day 1 was the same. You went in, stood 2m back behind sneeze guards to order then contactless payments before everything was delivered to a central point for you to pick up. I went in for the second round of drinks and it was already forgotten as I stood at the bar, paid cash and picked the drinks up directly from the bar. Quite a change of policy in 20 minutes.


----------



## tom73 (4 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> Yeah, I get that some people are working very hard to ensure compliance, but compliance just means cases reach an acceptable level, not complete safety and from where I am, the one or two spikes are coming from hospitality in one form or another. I just see it as a risk that I can do without right now. We are all doing our own risk assessments.



As with every thing else a most companies will do just what is required to get signed off. With covid secure it's even more wide open as the certificate you stick up all you do is print it off with no checks. 
What I keep hearing for staff who work in pubs is it's starts off ok but as the day go's on and the drink get's going. It's then when things go south. I'm also not convinced that all this waring just a face shield not a face covering is good enough either.


----------



## marinyork (4 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> The beer garden I was in on day 1 was the same. You went in, stood 2m back behind sneeze guards to order then contactless payments before everything was delivered to a central point for you to pick up. I went in for the second round of drinks and it was already forgotten as I stood at the bar, paid cash and picked the drinks up directly from the bar. Quite a change of policy in 20 minutes.



I have a friend who has been in around 20 pubs now. He says it varies enormously. Some he thinks are as safe as an indoor environment can be, others he says are normal without standing at the bar. A lot of people are sitting outside in many where the risk is 19x lower than indoors if you attach much to govt or japanese academic studies.


----------



## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> I have a friend who has been in around 20 pubs now. He says it varies enormously. Some he thinks are as safe as an indoor environment can be, others he says are normal without standing at the bar. A lot of people are sitting outside in many where the risk is 19x lower than indoors if you attach much to govt or japanese academic studies.


I've come to my very own unscientific conclusion that outside is where to be.


----------



## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> As with every thing else a most companies will do just what is required to get signed off. With covid secure it's even more wide open as the certificate you stick up all you do is print it off with no checks.
> What I keep hearing for staff who work in pubs is it's starts off ok but as the day go's on and the drink get's going. It's then when things go south. I'm also not convinced that all this waring just a face shield not a face covering is good enough either.


I'm not looking to take away the hard work of certainly individuals but that was certainly my experience, our first minister has also warned she will close them without hesitation if cases continue at the current rate and behaviour doesn't change. I feel really sorry for those whose living depends on it, but I wish she would shut them now.


----------



## matticus (4 Aug 2020)

I don't listen to every bulletin, but aren't the Gov blaming recent spikes Oop North on socializing at home (not in pubs etc)?

I've been in a lot of pubs - mainly on Yorkshire holiday 2 weeks ago - and everyone seemed very sensible (although some pubs had more ... extreme measures than others!). Not been in a town-centre Fri/Sat night scenario.


----------



## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

matticus said:


> I don't listen to every bulletin, but aren't the Gov blaming recent spikes Oop North on socializing at home (not in pubs etc)?
> 
> I've been in a lot of pubs - mainly on Yorkshire holiday 2 weeks ago - and everyone seemed very sensible (although some pubs had more ... extreme measures than others!). Not been in a town-centre Fri/Sat night scenario.


Seems to be mostly pubs up here with the latest in Aberdeen with over 120 people self isolating because of it and around 27 cases at the last count. Even the spike in Lanarkshire at the NHS test and protect call centre was attributed to 2 pubs and 1 shop. Obviously that's just 2 examples but there seems to be a pattern developing.


----------



## matticus (4 Aug 2020)

Ah. Further Oop North :P


----------



## marinyork (4 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> I've come to my very own unscientific conclusion that outside is where to be.



I think it's far lower risk outside. If you keep distance, don't have large groups or interhousehold groups too much I think it's about the best it gets.


----------



## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

matticus said:


> Ah. Further Oop North :P


It always makes me smile when I hear our English cousins claim first to be European then British but describe a part of Britain hundreds of miles south of me, as up north.


----------



## tom73 (4 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> I'm not looking to take away the hard work of certainly individuals but that was certainly my experience, our first minister has also warned she will close them without hesitation if cases continue at the current rate and behaviour doesn't change. I feel really sorry for those whose living depends on it, but I wish she would shut them now.



I'm not either I feel for ones who really do all they can to make things safe. It's the ones who are just doing giving an impression it's safe as with everything else it's needs a more targeted approach. As to who get's help and who can survive with minimum help. As schools open a trade off will have to be found too many variables are at play to have this as it stands.


----------



## matticus (4 Aug 2020)

Oh no, you misjudge me! I have been paying attention to your glorious leader, and comments from Scots-on-the-internet - so I am aware that Scotland has a fraction of the COVID problem here in Englandshire. I'd pretty much forgotten that the virus existed North of the Borrrrrder!


----------



## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

matticus said:


> Oh no, you misjudge me! I have been paying attention to your glorious leader, and comments from Scots-on-the-internet - so I am aware that Scotland has a fraction of the COVID problem here in Englandshire. I'd pretty much forgotten that the virus existed North of the Borrrrrder!


It wasn't a judgement, more an observation.


----------



## marinyork (4 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> Seems to be mostly pubs up here with the latest in Aberdeen with over 120 people self isolating because of it and around 27 cases at the last count. Even the spike in Lanarkshire at the NHS test and protect call centre was attributed to 2 pubs and 1 shop. Obviously that's just 2 examples but there seems to be a pattern developing.



It's the test and trace which isn't as sophisticated as it needs to be. Everyone in these pub outbreaks should be tested and tested a second time. The pub can be inspected and see what can be learned, were they just unlucky, was there something majorly wrong with the pubs set up and so on. This can then be applied to the pub in future and increases knowledge of what the real risks are.

Just data dumping 100 drinkers visited on day x and saying everyone should isolate is daft, it means you aren't really learning from when these clusters in pubs happen. 

This is on the day the modellers say if we bump up the numbers tested who have it by an achievable amount, it makes an enormous difference going into the winter. The other option was bumping up the people isolating massively, but that's a lazy option and not sure how realistic it is at this point.


----------



## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's the test and trace which isn't as sophisticated as it needs to be. Everyone in these pub outbreaks should be tested and tested a second time. The pub can be inspected and see what can be learned, were they just unlucky, was there something majorly wrong with the pubs set up and so on. This can then be applied to the pub in future and increases knowledge of what the real risks are.
> 
> Just data dumping 100 drinkers visited on day x and saying everyone should isolate is daft, it means you aren't really learning from when these clusters in pubs happen.
> 
> This is on the day the modellers say if we bump up the numbers tested who have it by an achievable amount, it makes an enormous difference going into the winter. The other option was bumping up the people isolating massively, but that's a lazy option and not sure how realistic it is at this point.


Our first minister on now explaining that everyone contacted have now been tested and even those that produced a negative test must self isolate for 14 days. Seems fair enough.


----------



## marinyork (4 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> Our first minister on now explaining that everyone contacted have now been tested and even those that produced a negative test must self isolate for 14 days. Seems fair enough.



It's not any different south of the border. 

It's because PCR is flawed and everyone knows it (and we knew this months ago even though people on here were arguing and saying hey you don't understand). Your first minister isn't that sophisticated, other countries test a 2nd time (or even keep testing until it's not detectable). There's even been a lot of modelling on this. If you do a test on the 5th day for the person who caught it off someone else, it catches 88% of the virus cases. If you do it on the 7th day it's 94%. This is also on the day the i newspaper went big on SAGE papers released talking about people who tested PCR positive + antibody positive (both) should not be given an immunity passport, but at believed to be less infectious and shouldn't have to follow the same isolation rules if they develop coronavirus symptoms again. 

It isn't fair enough to me, it seems totally misguided, given far more testing capacity is there than April.


----------



## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's not any different south of the border.
> 
> It's because PCR is flawed and everyone knows it (and we knew this months ago even though people on here were arguing and saying hey you don't understand). Your first minister isn't that sophisticated, other countries test a 2nd time (or even keep testing until it's not detectable). There's even been a lot of modelling on this. If you do a test on the 5th day for the person who caught it off someone else, it catches 88% of the virus cases. If you do it on the 7th day it's 94%. This is also on the day the i newspaper went big on SAGE papers released talking about people who tested PCR positive + antibody positive (both) should not be given an immunity passport, but at believed to be less infectious and shouldn't have to follow the same isolation rules if they develop coronavirus symptoms again.
> 
> It isn't fair enough to me, it seems totally misguided, given far more testing capacity is there than April.


5th and 7th day testing still isn't as good as self isolating though.  

I don't think testing really is an issue here at the moment, but maybe that would change if 3 and 4 tests were carried out. I also think it's more to do with the incubation period and asymptomatic cases that only the 14 day self isolation thing is the best defence we have from spreading the virus if you have been highlighted as being in contact with someone. 

I don't think anyone suggested our first minister was especially sophisticated, and I'm sure there are lots of studies coming out with new information all the time, but while all that is going on that can muddy the waters as much as anything else, the 14 day thing works as well.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (4 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> 'm also not convinced that all this waring just a face shield not a face covering is good enough either.




Like the Sainsburys staff member I saw at the weekend with her face shield tipped so far back on her head it was no longer covering her nose and mouth. It looked more like a visor.


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## tom73 (4 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's the test and trace which isn't as sophisticated as it needs to be. Everyone in these pub outbreaks should be tested and tested a second time. The pub can be inspected and see what can be learned, were they just unlucky, was there something majorly wrong with the pubs set up and so on. This can then be applied to the pub in future and increases knowledge of what the real risks are.
> 
> Just data dumping 100 drinkers visited on day x and saying everyone should isolate is daft, it means you aren't really learning from when these clusters in pubs happen.
> 
> This is on the day the modellers say if we bump up the numbers tested who have it by an achievable amount, it makes an enormous difference going into the winter. The other option was bumping up the people isolating massively, but that's a lazy option and not sure how realistic it is at this point.



If only they'd have put a public health expert in charge or test and trace. After all it's what they've been doing long before most in government had heard of it. But no we got a failed mobile phone seller with a title. 

One other thing i'd add is random covid secure inspections in the same way as they do for under age sales, food and trading standards. 
With on the spot interventions used as needed from gentle reminders to full instant shut down if measures are clearly a joke. 
But any hope of any detailed targeted approach went long ago when no end of governments have been happy to throw public health to the dogs.


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## marinyork (4 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> 5th and 7th day testing still isn't as good as self isolating though.



I'm not sure scientists actually believe that. Not 100% self isolate. Models don't think 100% isolate. Within large households is also a problem with the 14 days. A very big problem.

I would argue that 7 day testing is good if you use the data as it's telling you things. Blanket 14 days is not necessarily better in the real world. You have to factor in compliance and public faith.

It's an alternative suggested by scientists, for particular scenarios.


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## marinyork (4 Aug 2020)

@Slick there was some discussion about infected people confirmed with a test. The Whitty felt that the biggest gain would be following WHO and moving the first node from 7 to 10 days to isolate, which is now the guidelines. There was commentary elsewhere that this might mean better compliance with 14 days for second nodes, which was interesting.

I have to go back to uni in September, the uni has an early confirmed UK case. It's mad thinking that the testing was so limited then the case in the middle of a gigantic uni building could have spread it to dozens of people. Or maybe they didn't, we have no idea.


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## DCLane (4 Aug 2020)

Out today on the bike and we stop in Askern; one cafe had tables reserved but no customers turning up so we couldn't go in. Staff covered but quiet.

The other had no visors, distancing, contact details or anything. And yes, we ended up in this one. Mind you, beans-on-toast, a double fried-egg sandwich, a flapjack and a coffee was only £3.10 thanks to the 'eat out' offer. That was for two of us, not just me


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## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm not sure scientists actually believe that. Not 100% self isolate. Models don't think 100% isolate. Within large households is also a problem with the 14 days. A very big problem.
> 
> I would argue that 7 day testing is good if you use the data as it's telling you things. Blanket 14 days is not necessarily better in the real world. You have to factor in compliance and public faith.
> 
> It's an alternative suggested by scientists, for particular scenarios.


Factoring in compliance is a definite issue. It hasn't raised its head up here yet, but it's only a matter of time before some knuckle dragger refuses to do the right thing.


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## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> @Slick there was some discussion about infected people confirmed with a test. The Whitty felt that the biggest gain would be following WHO and moving the first node from 7 to 10 days to isolate, which is now the guidelines. There was commentary elsewhere that this might mean better compliance with 14 days for second nodes, which was interesting.
> 
> I have to go back to uni in September, the uni has an early confirmed UK case. It's mad thinking that the testing was so limited then the case in the middle of a gigantic uni building could have spread it to dozens of people. Or maybe they didn't, we have no idea.


That is interesting, I will have a look.

The uni will almost certainly be unrecognisable from the one you left in March. I'm now trying to prepare an FE college to not only comply with the rules but make sure everyone who visits is safe and we don't end up on the news.

The 27 cases from Aberdeen have now risen to 35 and bars across Aberdeen are voluntarily closing down and staff asked to self isolate, although to be fair, no staff has so far tested positive which tells me their measures are working.


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## tom73 (4 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> Factoring in compliance is a definite issue. It hasn't raised its head up here yet, but it's only a matter of time before some knuckle dragger refuses to do the right thing.


Australia are having to deal with this at the moment. They’ve got a small but hard core of people who just don’t want to do anything. Even as cases are on the rise rapidly not isolating even when positive is a big issue.
Over here PHE have to power to forcibly impose isolation for14 days if someone is deemed a danger to public health if they refuse a test. After 14 days if they again refuse they can extend in another 14 days.
Don’t think it‘s been used to date.

Without some real social science research feeding into government and they take note of it. All they’ve taken notice of to date is “lockdown fatigue“ which is a totally made up idea. without any we can’t really begin to understand why compliance fails or head off any growing none compliance before it gets a real problem.


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## tom73 (4 Aug 2020)

Current testing and contact tracing is inadequate to prevent a second wave of coronavirus after schools in the UK reopen, scientists have warned.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-5...ews/health&link_location=live-reporting-story

Dido however says it is working I think she needs to look at Blackburn then. 
They say it‘s too slow and not tracing enough. So set up a local service to do a better job.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-engla...oronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story


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## Joey Shabadoo (4 Aug 2020)

A tale of 2 restaurants today. At lunch I waited in a socially distanced queue into the restaurant which had taken half the tables and chairs out and only half were occupied. My name and telephone number were taken. All staff wore masks and were constantly cleaning. The bill was a surprise as I'd forgotten the 50% off. All in all, a pleasant experience.

Dinner was in an Indian Restaurant. When I went in, there were 4 couples evenly spaced around the edge of the room so I got a table in a corner at a safe distance. Nobody took my contact details and only 1 waiter wore a mask - pulled down over his chin. No gloves either. After I ordered, groups of workmen started to arrive. By the time they numbered over a dozen, the restaurant was getting quite full. Added to which one woman at a table not far away had been coughing persistently and not covering her mouth.

Bear in mind this is Aberdeen where there's been a surge. 

I asked for my main course to go as a takeaway and paid the bill - no discount applied. 

Think I'll steer clear of restaurants for a while


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## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> A tale of 2 restaurants today. At lunch I waited in a socially distanced queue into the restaurant which had taken half the tables and chairs out and only half were occupied. My name and telephone number were taken. All staff wore masks and were constantly cleaning. The bill was a surprise as I'd forgotten the 50% off. All in all, a pleasant experience.
> 
> Dinner was in an Indian Restaurant. When I went in, there were 4 couples evenly spaced around the edge of the room so I got a table in a corner at a safe distance. Nobody took my contact details and only 1 waiter wore a mask - pulled down over his chin. No gloves either. After I ordered, groups of workmen started to arrive. By the time they numbered over a dozen, the restaurant was getting quite full. Added to which one woman at a table not far away had been coughing persistently and not covering her mouth.
> 
> ...


I have come to the same conclusion. 

What's happening in Aberdeen, reports on tonight's news that pubs are voluntarily shutting down to try and avoid a local lockdown?


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## Joey Shabadoo (4 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> I have come to the same conclusion.
> 
> What's happening in Aberdeen, reports on tonight's news that pubs are voluntarily shutting down to try and avoid a local lockdown?


Dunno. The butcher in Turriff was telling me the locals had been pretty blase about the whole thing, regarding it as a city problem. But then the news broke about Aberdeen and he noticed the number of folk wearing masks shot up.


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## Slick (4 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Dunno. The butcher in Turriff was telling me the locals had been pretty blase about the whole thing, regarding it as a city problem. But then the news broke about Aberdeen and he noticed the number of folk wearing masks shot up.


Maybe it was sensationalised a bit on the news but it didn't sound great.


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## SpokeyDokey (5 Aug 2020)

Maybe things are currently not as bad as some sources think:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852


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## Rusty Nails (5 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Maybe things are currently not as bad as some sources think:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852



It's interesting looking at the graph of new infections. The choice of axis scales can make a huge difference to the perception of the growth rates.


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## johnblack (5 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Maybe things are currently not as bad as some sources think:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852


No good news allowed, no alternative view other than we must lockdown forever is deemed sufficient. My guess is that this will be torn to pieces.


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## Rocky (5 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Maybe things are currently not as bad as some sources think:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852





johnblack said:


> No good news allowed, no alternative view other than we must lockdown forever is deemed sufficient. My guess is that this will be torn to pieces.





srw said:


> The increase in cases, early in July, preceded the spike in testing at the end. I don't think he's reading the graphs right, and has used the highly sophisticated method of getting a ruler out and drawing a straight line.
> 
> All the DHSC data is currently here: https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases
> 
> ...



@srw has already debunked Heneghan's dodgy stats........sorry.


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## srw (5 Aug 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> @srw has already debunked Heneghan's dodgy stats........sorry.


I wouldn't say I've debunked them. 

I think he's drawing the wrong conclusion, and however uncertain the ONS stats are they're the best we've got.


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## Rocky (5 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> I wouldn't say I've debunked them.
> 
> I think he's drawing the wrong conclusion, and however uncertain the ONS stats are they're the best we've got.


I was rather taken with your reference to the arbitrary placing of the ruler. It also looks like he's selectively chosen the data to prove his point, rather than looking at all of the data and deciding what they actually mean.


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## oldwheels (5 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Dunno. The butcher in Turriff was telling me the locals had been pretty blase about the whole thing, regarding it as a city problem. But then the news broke about Aberdeen and he noticed the number of folk wearing masks shot up.


Where I am on an island nobody is blase. Mask wearing is about 99% in the local population. I will not start on about tourists again as that is another matter.


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## pawl (5 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> A tale of 2 restaurants today. At lunch I waited in a socially distanced queue into the restaurant which had taken half the tables and chairs out and only half were occupied. My name and telephone number were taken. All staff wore masks and were constantly cleaning. The bill was a surprise as I'd forgotten the 50% off. All in all, a pleasant experience.
> 
> Dinner was in an Indian Restaurant. When I went in, there were 4 couples evenly spaced around the edge of the room so I got a table in a corner at a safe distance. Nobody took my contact details and only 1 waiter wore a mask - pulled down over his chin. No gloves either. After I ordered, groups of workmen started to arrive. By the time they numbered over a dozen, the restaurant was getting quite full. Added to which one woman at a table not far away had been coughing persistently and not covering her mouth.
> 
> ...




A few of my relatives and friends are telling me how safe it know is I will not yet venture into restaurants I am of an age that is beyond are beloved Boris hit list by good few years If the risk is allegedly small it is still a risk I am not prepared to take.


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## srw (5 Aug 2020)

As it happens I think we're currently in a reasonably low risk state in much of the country. But I have very little confidence that we'll stay there.


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## Slick (5 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Dunno. The butcher in Turriff was telling me the locals had been pretty blase about the whole thing, regarding it as a city problem. But then the news broke about Aberdeen and he noticed the number of folk wearing masks shot up.


Aberdeen now back in lockdown apparently with pubs and restaurants closed and a 5 mile travel restriction. Not great.


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## Joey Shabadoo (5 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> Aberdeen now back in lockdown apparently with pubs and restaurants closed and a 5 mile travel restriction. Not great.


Absolutely no surprise if my experience in that restaurant was common. I left Aberdeen 2 hrs ago - phew!


*Out* before the lock


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## Adam4868 (5 Aug 2020)

I find it hard to believe a Tory minister lying...

View: https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1291018624539471879?s=19


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## glasgowcyclist (5 Aug 2020)




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## raleighnut (5 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> I find it hard to believe a Tory minister lying...
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1291018624539471879?s=19



A tory minister lying,


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## newfhouse (5 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> I find it hard to believe a Tory minister lying...
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1291018624539471879?s=19



Presumably, being an honourable man, he’ll ask to appear again tomorrow to clear up the confusion.


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## Adam4868 (5 Aug 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Presumably, being an honourable man, he’ll ask to appear again tomorrow to clear up the confusion.


It's pretty sad to me that lying is the norm it seems.Why not if you can.


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## Slick (5 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Absolutely no surprise if my experience in that restaurant was common. I left Aberdeen 2 hrs ago - phew!
> 
> 
> *Out* before the lock


Is that not how the virus spread the first time round in Italy?

You could maybe count your blessings whilst self isolating.


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## Joey Shabadoo (5 Aug 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/GCCourier/status/1291008515029565442


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## MntnMan62 (5 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/GCCourier/status/1291008515029565442




Clearly they don't realize, deny the situation exists and they don't care. Doesn't matter which because it ends with the same result.


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## Mugshot (6 Aug 2020)

OMG, it _is_ all about government control, they were right!!


View: https://twitter.com/christoq/status/1291476855434801152?s=20


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## rualexander (6 Aug 2020)

No deaths from Covid in Scotland for 3 weeks now.
But cases rising quite significantly so I doubt we'll make it to 4 weeks without a death.


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## tom73 (7 Aug 2020)

Just when track and trace can't get any worse it has the App is back. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53678508


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## newfhouse (7 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just when track and trace can't get any worse it has the App is back.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53678508


From the linked gov.uk announcement:


> *We will enhance the overall Test and Trace user journey*


People on six figure salaries are being paid by us to come up with this guff. Meanwhile, contract tracers working for Serco are averaging 2.4 phone calls per day.

Worth every penny, Baroness Harding.


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## tom73 (7 Aug 2020)

newfhouse said:


> From the linked gov.uk announcement:
> 
> People on six figure salaries are being paid by us to come up with this guff. Meanwhile, contract tracers working for Serco are averaging 2.4 phone calls per day.
> 
> Worth every penny, Baroness Harding.


Yep no wonder local public health are going alone is it ? One possible reason they only have so little work. Is for example if you have a group of say 6 people they get assigned to 6 tracers not one. So my the time the same questions get asked to each of them by 6 different people. They just get fed up and end up not engaging with the process. So not only are they wasting money by trying to justify employing more than then they need. But in turn are undermining the whole process at the same time. 

Once school ect reopen it will see them contacting even less people as they are seen as complex trace and get handed over to the clinical contact tracers. Who do this stuff all the time, know what they are doing and know how to engage people in the process.


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## johnblack (7 Aug 2020)

rualexander said:


> No deaths from Covid in Scotland for 3 weeks now.
> But cases rising quite significantly so I doubt we'll make it to 4 weeks without a death.


If Scotland used the same methodology as England for counting Covid deaths, then on the latest stats available (26th July) there would've been 8 deaths. Which method is correct is a different question.

Quite an interesting article here https://www.these-islands.co.uk/pub...nd_vs_england_comparisons_are_misleading.aspx

Not sure if there are politics behind it, I tend to assume there always is, but the bare stats are probably more important than the Scottish Goverments narrative.


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## PeteXXX (7 Aug 2020)

My wife struggles to breathe wearing a mask whilst shopping etc. 
Do these visors comply with the present regulations?


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## glasgowcyclist (7 Aug 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> My wife struggles to breathe wearing a mask whilst shopping etc.
> Do these visors comply with the present regulations?
> 
> View attachment 540246



I don't see why not. They're a common sight on supermarket staff and there is no definition of a face covering anyway.


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## matticus (7 Aug 2020)

Seeing mouths makes communication a lot easier.

( and I'm not even a lip-reader!)


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## raleighnut (7 Aug 2020)

matticus said:


> Seeing mouths makes communication a lot easier.
> 
> ( and I'm not even a lip-reader!)


They don't stop droplet contamination when you breathe, much like the numpties who wear masks not covering their noses too, the face coverings aren't about protecting you they're for not contaminating others and the confines of the establishment with your potential germs.


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## midlife (7 Aug 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> My wife struggles to breathe wearing a mask whilst shopping etc.
> Do these visors comply with the present regulations?
> 
> View attachment 540246



For respiratory problems there is usually a support group that can offer advice. British Lung Foundation for example.


----------



## matticus (7 Aug 2020)

raleighnut said:


> They don't stop droplet contamination when you breathe, much like the numpties who wear masks not covering their noses too, the face coverings aren't about protecting you they're for not contaminating others and the confines of the establishment with your potential germs.


Visors seem to be the recommended "PPE" for staff in a range of industries in contact with the public - from supermarkets to pubs and hair-dressers.
So what's going on? IAMFI!


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## midlife (7 Aug 2020)

I wear a visor at work along with a surgical mask. The visor is to protect me from large droplets and spatter (not aerosol, then I wear PP3 and a visor) . I take it off wearing a fresh pair of gloves and wipe it down with something virucidal then set down to dry.

As mentioned the visor is to protect me in this case.


----------



## mjr (7 Aug 2020)

raleighnut said:


> They don't stop droplet contamination when you breathe, much like the numpties who wear masks not covering their noses too, the face coverings aren't about protecting you they're for not contaminating others and the confines of the establishment with your potential germs.


The cloth ones don't stop it either. It shortens the range of the droplets. A visor will too, in the forwards direction, but less effectively sideways.


----------



## johnblack (7 Aug 2020)

Although not always enjoyed here, let's have some good news. From the Guardian.

"An average of 28,300 people in private households in *England* had Covid-19 between 27 July and 2 August, according to new estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This was the equivalent of about 0.05% of the population, or one in 1,900 individuals.
The figures do not include people staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.
An average of 3,700 people per day in private households in England were estimated to be newly infected with Covid-19 between 27 July and 2 August, according to the ONS – down slightly from 4,200 per day in the period 20-26 July.
The ONS said that while recent figures had suggested the percentage of individuals testing positive for Covid-19 had risen since the end of June, there was now evidence to suggest this trend may have levelled off."


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## tom73 (7 Aug 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> My wife struggles to breathe wearing a mask whilst shopping etc.
> Do these visors comply with the present regulations?
> 
> View attachment 540246


Yes the only thing the rule says is to comply the face cover has to self supporting ie holds itself in place.
She may find some other type of face cover is better for her some mostly are too thick it's find one that's not too thin or thick. 
Like @midlife say's see what advice you can find. Above all good for her for trying and find a way many won't even try.


----------



## tom73 (7 Aug 2020)

matticus said:


> Visors seem to be the recommended "PPE" for staff in a range of industries in contact with the public - from supermarkets to pubs and hair-dressers.
> So what's going on? IAMFI!


It's the ago old problem with guidelines they just leave too much open to business to interpret. In the case of shields the guidelines so face coverings. Most placers have simply interpreted it as "let's issue face shields". Even though at no point do they even say face shields.


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## IanSmithCSE (7 Aug 2020)

Afternoon,

As far as I am aware nobody knows for England as there is no official statement.

In Scotland https://www.gov.scot/publications/c...e-and-protecting-others/pages/face-coverings/
_You may also use, if you prefer, a face visor but it must cover your nose and mouth completely. _

Obviously Scotland and England are different legal systems, so all you can *possibly *infer is that it would be reasonable to argue that a Face Mask or Face Shield is not a face covering in England.

Whilst they are common in places such as supermarkets in England, employees at work are not required to wear a face covering in such places so whether they comply or not doesn't matter.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/791/regulation/2/made
The actual wording for England is _“face covering” means a covering of any type which covers a person’s nose and mouth; _Wow wasn't that helpful. :=)

Although this is guidance not legislation https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ngs-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own
_Face coverings are instead largely intended to _*protect others,*_ not the wearer, against the spread of infection because they cover the nose and mouth 

5. How to wear a face covering ..... A face covering should: ..... fit comfortably but securely against the side of the face
_
Which would suggest No (my bold emphasis) to face visors or shields despite Scotland saying yes.

I know the Corona virus threads have view varying from _everyone not wearing a mask is evil_ to _they do almost nothing so what's the point?_ views.

It looks to me like you will be left to decide for yourself where you want to sit on this scale 

In other words I am of no help at all.


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## matticus (7 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> The cloth ones don't stop it either. It shortens the range of the droplets. A visor will too, in the forwards direction, but less effectively sideways.


Yes - none of these things guarantee no virions travelling between people. And given that coughs/sneazles do the most spreading, I would think visors are very effective i.e. block most transmission, especially if you are 1.5metres or more apart.


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## mjr (7 Aug 2020)

johnblack said:


> Although not always enjoyed here, let's have some good news. From the Guardian.
> 
> "[...] The ONS said that while recent figures had suggested the percentage of individuals testing positive for Covid-19 had risen since the end of June, there was now evidence to suggest this trend may have levelled off."


Is infections merely levelling off good news? It's better than rising, I guess, but it seems a long way from reducing.


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## newfhouse (7 Aug 2020)

johnblack said:


> Although not always enjoyed here, let's have some good news.


Good news is always welcome. Why would you think otherwise?


johnblack said:


> The ONS said that while recent figures had suggested the percentage of individuals testing positive for Covid-19 had risen since the end of June, there was now evidence to suggest this trend may have levelled off.


So the trend has only flattened, even with the current restrictions and precautions. People presently working safely and productively at home are being encouraged - and in some cases shamed - into returning to the workplace. What do you think will happen to the trend when public transport and offices get busier?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (7 Aug 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> My wife struggles to breathe wearing a mask whilst shopping etc.
> Do these visors comply with the present regulations?



I see that since I first replied to you, our FM has clarified that (in Scotland) a shield is not enough and will have to be augmented with a face covering.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53697673


----------



## PeteXXX (7 Aug 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I see that since I first replied to you, our FM has clarified that (in Scotland) a shield is not enough and will have to be augmented with a face covering.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53697673


Thanks for that. We'll see if the same rules head south of the border!


----------



## MarkF (7 Aug 2020)

Masks? The interminable debate about their efficacity really is total obfuscation and a denial of the bigger picture. Who's actually wearing surgical masks now? After a couple of weeks kids wouldn't be seen dead with them (me neither) so we have the majority wearing "bits of cloth" in their favouritre colour or other "bits of cloth" with their favourite band or their football club on them. It is La- La land.

Bradford has extra measures in place, I am sure the good folk of Ilkley are happy about that.................So you open up a test centre in a place (BD9) where it's impossible for multi-generational households to social distance, then you go door to door encouraging people to test. Whaddayaknow? With highly spurious testing procedure, you get the results you want. But what does this translate into, these + tests? Poorly people? Nope. Increased hospital admissions? Nope. Deaths? Nope. Increased calls to the hospital? Nope.

I'll tell it as it is, I brought up care homes & long term patients risks well before they were accepted and then news, as long as I don't get veiled threats about my employment.


----------



## classic33 (7 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> Masks? The interminable debate about their efficacity really is total obfuscation and a denial of the bigger picture. Who's actually wearing surgical masks now? After a couple of weeks kids wouldn't be seen dead with them (me neither) so we have the majority wearing "bits of cloth" in their favouritre colour or other "bits of cloth" with their favourite band or their football club on them. It is La- La land.
> 
> *Bradford has extra measures in place, *I am sure the good folk of Ilkley are happy about that.................So you open up a test centre in a place (BD9) where it's impossible for multi-generational households to social distance, then you go door to door encouraging people to test. Whaddayaknow? With highly spurious testing procedure, you get the results you want. But what does this translate into, these + tests? Poorly people? Nope. Increased hospital admissions? Nope. Deaths? Nope. Increased calls to the hospital? Nope.
> 
> I'll tell it as it is for you as long as I don't get veiled threats about my employment.


Part of those measures is not travelling outside the lockdowned area. 

Ilkley is a Leeds postcode, not Bradford.


----------



## MarkF (7 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> Part of those measures is not travelling outside the lockdowned area.
> 
> Ilkley is a Leeds postcode, not Bradford.



IIkley is a Bradford council ward, the Bradford metro area is surprisingly massive, right up into the Dales is Bradford.

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/new...angry-town-included-bradford-lockdown-2934271


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## classic33 (8 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/new...angry-town-included-bradford-lockdown-2934271


Not all Bradford postcodes are represented on Bradford Council though. Keighley is Worth Ward, Craven District Council.


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## deptfordmarmoset (8 Aug 2020)

I came home yesterdy to find I'd been invited to take part in an ONS/Oxford University Infection Survey. Somebody will call on me and carry out a bit of daylight swabbery on me. Once I've registered, that is.


----------



## DCLane (8 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> Who's actually wearing surgical masks now?



Me - I bought a large box of them in January when one of my Chinese colleagues warned everyone about this.

Oh, and given that locally most are wearing it, but then having parties/large groups round it'll continue even at a lower level. My area's been identified as a large increase but that's down to one care home with 25 cases.


----------



## MrGrumpy (8 Aug 2020)

I’d prefer if joe public didn’t wear surgical masks so that those working in health got first dibs!


----------



## Julia9054 (8 Aug 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> I’d prefer if joe public didn’t wear surgical masks so that those working in health got first dibs!


Is there still a shortage in health care?
If you can buy them in regular outlets such as Boots or Amazon, then they must be ok to wear.


----------



## midlife (8 Aug 2020)

There are several grades of surgical mask, the ones we wear at work are type IIR, perhaps the Boots masks are a different grade?


----------



## Hover Fly (8 Aug 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I came home yesterdy to find I'd been invited to take part in an ONS/Oxford University Infection Survey. Somebody will call on me and carry out a bit of daylight swabbery on me. Once I've registered, that is.


Me too, in addition to the ICL ONS study on antibodies and a follow up. Beginning to think my name is in big gold leaf letters on a list somewhere.


----------



## classic33 (8 Aug 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Is there still a shortage in health care?
> If you can buy them in regular outlets such as Boots or Amazon, then they must be ok to wear.


If what I'm seeing locally is mirrored elsewhere, there'll be a few red faces after this is all over.

Workers being able to sell on masks they've been supplied with for working in the local hospitals. It seems to be a case of just request the number you want, and you get them. With no records being kept of how many were given to who.


----------



## tom73 (8 Aug 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Is there still a shortage in health care?
> If you can buy them in regular outlets such as Boots or Amazon, then they must be ok to wear.


Given the government has just handed out contacts to supply PPE to anyone who fancies one. Means they may well be come winter the Recalling 50 million masks this week is just latest recall. The mass public do not need clinical grade masks of what ever type and really is a waste given you can't hope to achieve anyway near the same standard of infection control when you just pop to the shop. 
Cloth ones work just fine for what the over aim is of mass public face coverings.


----------



## mjr (8 Aug 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Is there still a shortage in health care?
> If you can buy them in regular outlets such as Boots or Amazon, then they must be ok to wear.


Boots maybe but Amazon includes a lot of "Amazon marketplace" stuff which seems at least as much a "buyer beware" zone as eBay, containing many scams like the knock-off Apple products featured in last week's BBC Click, some not working at all, most with questionable safety test certificates.


----------



## marinyork (9 Aug 2020)

Very bold claims about enormously high percentages of those furloughed continuing to work!

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ed-workers-continued-job-in-covid-19-lockdown


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## Slick (9 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Very bold claims about enormously high percentages of those furloughed continuing to work!
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ed-workers-continued-job-in-covid-19-lockdown


Yes, very different to quantify, although I do know of some who took on other work which isn't against, the rules.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (9 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Very bold claims about enormously high percentages of those furloughed continuing to work!
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ed-workers-continued-job-in-covid-19-lockdown





> Rauh thinks the government should not have tried to prevent furloughed workers from working in the first place. “It’s better for everyone that people have ignored this rule. If people are working, they might be producing something which is creating some kind of value, and they are not losing their job skills.



Yup.


----------



## marinyork (9 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> Yes, very different to quantify, although I do know of some who took on other work which isn't against, the rules.



I have heard of plenty of people who took on other work, which is not against the rules. I also know people who took on substantial volunteering commitments which is not against the rules. In the public sector there wasn't enough of this and some felt discouraged from doing so.

Also quite a few people who missed out on furlough or who got sacked before.


----------



## Adam4868 (9 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Very bold claims about enormously high percentages of those furloughed continuing to work!
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ed-workers-continued-job-in-covid-19-lockdown


Which could also translate as "workers forced back Into work by their employers"
Or maybe employers making fraudulent furlough claims ?
Rules are for plebs...


----------



## tom73 (9 Aug 2020)

Look's like SAGE has quietly moved to supporting aerosol transmission even WHO now look like they favour it. Studies have back the idea for a while now with more coming that back it up. 
Much more work will need to be done on internal ventilation and transmission risk. Some work placers and hospitals will need a bit a rethink and reworking the use of PPE use will need a rethink too. Public health message on distancing , face coverings and hand washing will need to be made even more important and be reinforced more than it has been. 
I really don't know why we can't widely adopt Japan's three C message (Avoid the three C's: closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings). it's simple , clear and you'd don't have to work out what setting your in and if you can or can't. It's just one constant message. 
Oh guess that's why that would never do.


----------



## Slick (9 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Look's like SAGE has quietly moved to supporting aerosol transmission even WHO now look like they favour it. Studies have back the idea for a while now with more coming that back it up.
> Much more work will need to be done on internal ventilation and transmission risk. Some work placers and hospitals will need a bit a rethink and reworking the use of PPE use will need a rethink too. Public health message on distancing , face coverings and hand washing will need to be made even more important and be reinforced more than it has been.
> I really don't know why we can't widely adopt Japan's three C message (Avoid the three C's: closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings). it's simple , clear and you'd don't have to work out what setting your in and if you can or can't. It's just one constant message.
> Oh guess that's why that would never do.


I agree, but there are a number of people who can't avoid enclosed spaces like teachers or even factory workers.


----------



## Slick (9 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> I have heard of plenty of people who took on other work, which is not against the rules. I also know people who took on substantial volunteering commitments which is not against the rules. In the public sector there wasn't enough of this and some felt discouraged from doing so.
> 
> Also quite a few people who missed out on furlough or who got sacked before.


I can't understand employers who would pay workers off without using the furlough scheme.


----------



## tom73 (9 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> I agree, but there are a number of people who can't avoid enclosed spaces like teachers or even factory workers.


True not everyone can it's always going to be a case of when you can. In those situations ventilation is even more important just keeping the windows and doors opens once winter arrives will be even harder to achieve. Some real investment is going to have to come somehow.


----------



## kingrollo (11 Aug 2020)

so Russia has a vaccine !!!!!


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> so Russia has a vaccine !!!!!



BBC link re the above:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53735718


----------



## vickster (11 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> so Russia has a vaccine !!!!!


Allegedly, but no proof it works (and is safe)


----------



## Tanis8472 (11 Aug 2020)

Well at least the spanish flue pandemic helped end ww2 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1293072891114921985


----------



## silva (11 Aug 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Well at least the spanish flue pandemic helped end ww2
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1293072891114921985



The governments greatly helped the pandemic, with their propaganda to recruit citizens as soldiers (where the virus broke out), then ship them over the ocean to fight the war for governments (spread the virus), putting them in trenches in misery, weakened people easy victims for the virus, and with their media ban to not publish the pandemic - the Morale of the troops was of utter importance. The "Spanish" of spanish flu origins there: Spain was neutral, - media was not censored there and the public got finally informed.


----------



## RoadRider400 (11 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> I agree, but there are a number of people who can't avoid enclosed spaces like teachers or even factory workers.


Exactly this. Cant see the government saying anything that might be a barrier to schools re opening.


----------



## raleighnut (11 Aug 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Exactly this. Cant see the government saying anything that might be a barrier to schools re opening.


Even if it means shutting the pubs again


----------



## Slick (11 Aug 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Well at least the spanish flue pandemic helped end ww2
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1293072891114921985



He really is thick as.


----------



## Beebo (11 Aug 2020)

So after uproar at unfair downgrading, the Scottish Exams have been uplifted to the teachers predictions. 
The problem is that the 2020 results are now 14% better than last year.
So does this now unfairly penalise all previous years?


----------



## classic33 (11 Aug 2020)

Beebo said:


> So after uproar at unfair downgrading, the Scottish Exams have been uplifted to the teachers predictions.
> The problem is that the 2020 results are now 14% better than last year.
> So does this now unfairly penalise all previous years?


Simple answer, Yes.


----------



## DCLane (11 Aug 2020)

It also sets a precedent for the GCSE's and A-levels this year elsewhere in the UK.

Thing is, in 5 years that students didn't sit exams in 2020 will be forgotten.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> Simple answer, Yes.


Only if there's open competition between the two age groups. And, then, only if the last year's grade hasn't been used on the market, as it were. Last year's entry requirements for university, for example, would have reflected the grade level at that time. The same grades this year might not get the same place that it did last year: there will be more people with good enough grades and scarcity of places will force some of this year's school leavers out of places. The ''easier'' grades will probably punish this year more markedly.


----------



## RoadRider400 (11 Aug 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Even if it means shutting the pubs again


Might as well leave the pubs open. If not you will probably end up with lots of house gatherings/parties with zero distancing and the infections will rise anyway.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Aug 2020)

Interesting area of research on child hood vaccinations that may offer some protection.

https://apple.news/AHP6R1HkLSEWz5XttiW8LXw


----------



## MarkF (11 Aug 2020)

midlife said:


> There are several grades of surgical mask, the ones we wear at work are type IIR, perhaps the Boots masks are a different grade?


I was given one at Morrisons, felt it, manipultated it and wore it for a few seconds, before putting it my pocket, ta! It was way better than the 3M ones at work, more robust, comfier with a better protected nose wire. As I said months ago, the PPE I'm given sometimes seems comically poor, it says "3M " (or whatever) on it but I've never really believed it, why would "3M" put there name on something that sticks sharp metal ends in your face?


----------



## MarkF (11 Aug 2020)

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...to-reduce-covid-19-risk-charity-says-12046999

If you don't wake up after that then you never will.


----------



## MarkF (11 Aug 2020)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ovid19infectionsurveypilot/england7august2020

About a 100 of 80+year olds will die then. I see flu deaths ( well all deaths really) are down again..........


----------



## midlife (11 Aug 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Might as well leave the pubs open. If not you will probably end up with lots of house gatherings/parties with zero distancing and the infections will rise anyway.



Like this birthday party in Carlisle


https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/18641209.virus-hits-partygoers/

Cumbria is an area of concern, 3 wards are closed at the hospital and 18 care homes have residents who are covid positive


----------



## MarkF (11 Aug 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Might as well leave the pubs open. If not you will probably end up with lots of house gatherings/parties with zero distancing and the infections will rise anyway.



Do infections matter that much? Our hospital is in BD9, incredibly populous per sq/m, impossible to social distance (not they will/can anyway) and pretty unhealthy too (many causes). It's not social distanced since day one, now a way (an obvious one) has been found to provide new "cases", yet these cases don't arrive at hospital or even telephone it, they are not poorly people.


----------



## classic33 (11 Aug 2020)

I've had two tests, both done in carparks, in the open. Neither of these were done at a hospital or permanent medical site. Why risk taking it into such a place in the first place?

What's the difference between "unhealthy" and "poorly". If a person is unhealthy, what's stopping them being poorly.


----------



## raleighnut (11 Aug 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Might as well leave the pubs open. If not you will probably end up with lots of house gatherings/parties with zero distancing and the infections will rise anyway.


Aye there's no defeating stupidity.


----------



## MarkF (11 Aug 2020)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-is-still-key-in-the-fight-against-covid-19

I work in an area under special measures and one that not 5% of residents will take any notice of. The positive "cases" don't translate into poorly people, never mind hospital admissions. It's been over for months and now should go into flu territory as something we accept and live with before we kill any more people and ruin our childrens futures.


----------



## classic33 (11 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-is-still-key-in-the-fight-against-covid-19
> 
> I work in an area under special measures and one that not 5% of residents will take any notice of. The positive "cases" don't translate into poorly people, never mind hospital admissions. It's been over for months and now should go into flu territory as something we accept and live with before we kill any more people and ruin our childrens futures.


I live in an area under special measures, but there's no-one saying that it's over, demanding that we should go back to the way we were in early March this year.

Completely seperate health issue, epilepsy. Has had me in hospital more times than I can remember. But unless someone else has made the call, I'll try and stay away from A&E's after a fit/seizure/episode/call it what you want. As do a load of others with the same condition. 

For myself, there's not a lot they can do. Injuries aside. So why waste their time. I'm willing to bet there's others who are simply extending this to the present situation.


Added this in the edit.
We've had another two deaths, due to Covid-19, recorded in the last week here. So I doubt it's gone away


----------



## MarkF (11 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> I live in an area under special measures, but there's no-one saying that it's over, demanding that we should go back to the way we were in early March this year.
> 
> Completely seperate health issue, epilepsy. Has had me in hospital more times than I can remember. But unless someone else has made the call, I'll try and stay away from A&E's after a fit/seizure/episode/call it what you want. As do a load of others with the same condition.
> 
> ...



I meant "over" as something a hysterical reaction should no longer play a part in. And I don't expect it to ever go away, however I think flu is currently is taking more lives? So many people are not coming into hospital, as reflected not only in the NHS stats but also in the % increased deaths at home.


----------



## Tanis8472 (12 Aug 2020)

silva said:


> The governments greatly helped the pandemic, with their propaganda to recruit citizens as soldiers (where the virus broke out), then ship them over the ocean to fight the war for governments (spread the virus), putting them in trenches in misery, weakened people easy victims for the virus, and with their media ban to not publish the pandemic - the Morale of the troops was of utter importance. The "Spanish" of spanish flu origins there: Spain was neutral, - media was not censored there and the public got finally informed.



Indeed. 
Pity Trumpton doesn't let facts get in the way. He's thick as 2 shirt planks.


----------



## srw (12 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> I think flu is currently is taking more lives



That's a claim you might want to substantiate. Because your series of posts reads very much like encouragement to the rest of us to do something dangerous.


----------



## Beebo (12 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...to-reduce-covid-19-risk-charity-says-12046999
> 
> If you don't wake up after that then you never will.


I know the Terrance Higgins Trust are acting in good faith, but anyone prepared to have new or multiple sexual partner is never going to wear a face mask or follow these rules.


----------



## tom73 (12 Aug 2020)

Beebo said:


> So after uproar at unfair downgrading, the Scottish Exams have been uplifted to the teachers predictions.
> The problem is that the 2020 results are now 14% better than last year.
> So does this now unfairly penalise all previous years?


All this is doing is yet again highlighting just how out of date the whole school and exams system is. A system that still fails 1000's every year that still see's 1000's leave without even being able to read or write. With our prisons acting as grave yard for many who the the system spat out along the way. Why we are still defining and branding young people based on a bit of paper ? Which in the end shows is how good you happened to be on the day. Sadly no government or party has the balls to really change education so it leaves no one behind or going though life believing they are a failure and too thick to give education another chance.


----------



## marinyork (12 Aug 2020)

DCLane said:


> It also sets a precedent for the GCSE's and A-levels this year elsewhere in the UK.
> 
> Thing is, in 5 years that students didn't sit exams in 2020 will be forgotten.



In five year's time the actual GCSE results will be forgotten. This cohort will be well into university or jobs or job hunting and many other things.


----------



## marinyork (12 Aug 2020)

Beebo said:


> I know the Terrance Higgins Trust are acting in good faith, but anyone prepared to have new or multiple sexual partner is never going to wear a face mask or follow these rules.



There's a lot of dating going on in the era of restrictions. Might be people exaggerating a bit in some cases.

The Terrance Higgins story will not be listened to. It may have downsides for such a high profile story for some who live on their own during coronavirus.


----------



## tom73 (12 Aug 2020)

This is why covid is everyones problem and why everyone needs to treat this for what it is and not as a joke.
"I could be responsible for other people's deaths without knowing." A carer is now left wondering when did she get infected and was it her who infected her mother who died.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-53739032
Anyone know if any studies are being done on covid and survivor guilt ?


----------



## marinyork (12 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> This is why covid is everyones problem and why everyone needs to treat this for what it is and not as a joke.
> "I could be responsible for other people's deaths without knowing." A carer is now left wondering when did she get infected and was it her who infected her mother who died.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-53739032
> Anyone know if any studies are being done on covid and survivor guilt ?



John Edmunds sounded quite miffed the last couple of days that we aren't doing backward contact tracing and it's just a few settings where there is interest.

SARS has lots of studies from the aftermath on the psychological side.


----------



## marinyork (12 Aug 2020)

In these parts ^^ there do seem to be more antibody tests for health workers very recently. I heard someone who had one a week and a half ago, they wanted it positive, it came back negative. A lot of other people they knew were having first antibody test.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> That's a claim you might want to substantiate. Because your series of posts reads very much like encouragement to the rest of us to do something dangerous.



No one has died at the hospital he works at this week. What more evidence could you possibly need


----------



## marinyork (12 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> No one has died at the hospital he works at this week. What more evidence could you possibly need



As it happens stats for this were discussed the last couple of days.

A professor of medicine who is a GP said restrictions such as working from home and distancing meant the common cold was at about 20% of normal levels and flu 50% of normal levels, even now. They did want better stats though.

At the moment, unlike Sep/Oct for rsz and rhinovirus, it is thought flu doesn't cause viral blocking and you can get both at the same time and some be in big trouble.


----------



## fossyant (12 Aug 2020)

Looks like our Oldham neighbour's aren't behaving. Some local concern that their stupidity will extend lockdown conditions to the whole of Manchester - Wigan's up in arms (quite rightly) due to Andy Burnham insisting it has to be the whole region.

Oldham's infections are now worse than the peak, months ago. Stockport's fell again last week after a week's spike.

I shall be mightily hissed off if I can't go to York for one night next week - trying a little break for our 25th Wedding Anniversary.


----------



## fossyant (12 Aug 2020)

Oh, and it's not going to be good in late September - Schools and Colleges back full time. Universities will be very much part time.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Aug 2020)

Ive got a trip to the Algarve booked in October ! - Booked before all this started - really undecided what to do.


----------



## PK99 (12 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> That's a claim you might want to substantiate. Because your series of posts reads very much like encouragement to the rest of us to do something dangerous.



The clam is sound:

Times 12 August

_Flu and pneumonia are killing five times as many people as coronavirus at present, with Covid deaths at their lowest since the end of March, figures show.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that overall deaths were below average for the time of year for the seventh consecutive week, while deaths from Covid-19 were at a 19-week low.

There were 193 deaths reported in the week ending July 31 that had coronavirus mentioned on the death certificate, continuing three months of falls since a weekly peak of 8,758 in April. It is the lowest figure since 103 died in the week ending March 20, on the eve of lockdown.

By contrast, 928 people died of flu or pneumonia in the last week of July, slightly fewer than previous years. This was the seventh consecutive week in which more people had died of flu or pneumonia than coronavirus._


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 Aug 2020)

Isn't pneumonia a consequence of Coronavirus?


----------



## mjr (12 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> The clam is sound:


It is not. Can you spot the difference?



> _Flu and pneumonia are killing five times as many people as coronavirus at present, with Covid deaths at their lowest since the end of March, figures show._


I suspect those two words "and pneumonia" make a significant difference.

And weren't some people posting that all pneumonia deaths were being counted as covid? This seems to contradict that.


----------



## icowden (12 Aug 2020)

The "deaths" aspect is a red herring in some ways. 

People will get Covid19, this is pretty much unavoidable. Most people will not have a serious outcome. Those that do have a serious outcome require significant hospital resources to treat them. That's the important bit. If too many people are sick at the same time, we don't have the health resources to treat them given that treatment at the moment is limited to assisting patients whilst they try to fight off the infection. So the reason for social distancing etc is to try and avoid spreading Covid19 so that we don't overwhelm services, and people don't die due to lack of ventillators, beds, etc.

Many of the people who will die from Covid19 would have likely died from something else - Flu or respiratory infection. Many of those people are already very ill. Some people who will become seriously ill and may die from Covid19 were not particularly ill. So we try to protect as many people as possible by having sensible measures to try to ensure that spread remains slow and controlled until an effective treatment or vaccination is available.

You then have the balancing beam of increased issues due to social isolation, child abuse / child welfare where children are no longer seen in school every day and only remotely by health professionals. It's hard to balance.



> And weren't some people posting that all pneumonia deaths were being counted as covid? This seems to contradict that.



It's a difficult balance. If you get Covid19 and it causes you to develop Pneumonia then did you die of Covid19 or Pneumonia? The answer would appear to be both, in that you may not have developed Pneumonia had you not contracted Covid19. But you can get Pneumonia as a development from a whole range of different respiratory infections. Hence most country comparisons focus on excess death rate over what is normally expected year on year.


----------



## midlife (12 Aug 2020)

Pneumonia was called the old man's friend way back when I was on the wards. Unfortunately it was the event that took the lives of most of the very ill people. Even with antibiotics I guess it's much the same now?


----------



## kingrollo (12 Aug 2020)

midlife said:


> Pneumonia was called the old man's friend way back when I was on the wards. Unfortunately it was the event that took the lives of most of the very ill people. Even with antibiotics I guess it's much the same now?



Yup - my dad getting on 3 years ago.
however IMO he had a heart attack about 5 months earlier and never really recovered - his weak heart meant couldn't clear the fluid from his lungs - so pneumonia went on the death cert. I still say he died of a weak heart.


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## mjr (12 Aug 2020)

Meanwhile, govt.NZ puts Auckland in a 3-day lockdown due to 4 cases suspected of being local transmission, likely to be extended if local transmission cannot be disproved.

And Spain's confirmed new case rate just hit a 7-day average of 72 per million, up 3%, with Moldova, Kosovo and Bosnia the only worse in Europe and they're small countries where a small outbreak has a bigger effect on the "per million". The next highest western European countries are record-it-all Belgium at 34 (-31%). The UK is currently at 14 (+16%).


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## kingrollo (12 Aug 2020)

icowden said:


> The "deaths" aspect is a red herring in some ways.
> 
> People will get Covid19, this is pretty much unavoidable. Most people will not have a serious outcome. Those that do have a serious outcome require significant hospital resources to treat them. That's the important bit. If too many people are sick at the same time, we don't have the health resources to treat them given that treatment at the moment is limited to assisting patients whilst they try to fight off the infection. So the reason for social distancing etc is to try and avoid spreading Covid19 so that we don't overwhelm services, and people don't die due to lack of ventillators, beds, etc.
> 
> ...



There are that many stats out there -you can pretty much interpret them how you want. for me the important ones are:-


The natural rate of infection for COVID - is thought to be a high as 4 - much higher than flu
Those requiring hospital treatment is estimated at 20% - much higher than flu
The mortality rate up to 3% - flu is 0.15 I beleive

Many of schools have been closed since march, many people are WFH , or on furlough - so that pushes Covid and other stats lower.

In the end you can beleive this is problem - or you can say its overhyped hysteria - there are stats for either.


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## roubaixtuesday (12 Aug 2020)

icowden said:


> Many of the people who will die from Covid19 would have likely died from something else



This is basically wrong. 

Various estimates have been made, but the numbers seem to be around ten years of life lost per COVID death.


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## kingrollo (12 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This is basically wrong.
> 
> Various estimates have been made, but the numbers seem to be around ten years of life lost per COVID death.



but what about all those people who got covid and were then run over by a bus months later ???/ - Oh yeah there weren't any. Edit there were 4 !!


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## mjr (12 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This is basically wrong.
> 
> Various estimates have been made, but the numbers seem to be around ten years of life lost per COVID death.


But it's technically correct because we're all going to die of something, or at least that's the best guess at the moment!

I'm watching foreign news and the comment was made that more and more European cities are requiring face coverings even outside in centres. I can understand that they may want to reduce the amount of risky doffing and donning — even in countries with much better public health education than England, with films and news items explaining how to do it safely, by the straps and cleaning hands afterwards, actual public practice looks a bit random — as people go between shops and so on, but is there much evidence supporting that change? Or is it more to make policing easier, rather than having police have to look inside shops?


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## mjr (12 Aug 2020)

There's a new public health education campaign from Belgium, also in English at https://11millionreasons.be which is a reference to the country's population and protecting each other:






Compare and contrast with anything you can find on https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus


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## icowden (12 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Yup - my dad getting on 3 years ago.
> however IMO he had a heart attack about 5 months earlier and never really recovered - his weak heart meant couldn't clear the fluid from his lungs - so pneumonia went on the death cert. I still say he died of a weak heart.



And this is one of the problems of cause-of-death counting. Cause of death doesn't include the cause of the cause of death. So for example, in fertility treatment it is possible that some women will have overstimulation (OHSS) due to medications prescribed which in turn can cause clotting, which in turn can cause a cardiac event. However cause of death is then "cardiac arrest" for example not "taking a tonne of fertility medications which caused a cardiac arrest".


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## tom73 (12 Aug 2020)

So cases are down and more people are dying of everything else so all is well. 
How do you think covid levels got this low in the first place by magic ?
No though doing what we did and will have to continue to do for sometime. We could now be seeing even lower cases but we never hit this hard enough even now it's debatable if we ever will. 
Has it's been pointed out time and time again the sats and the deaths are only part of. 
You can continue to believe what you like , read all the "studies" / listen to the "experts" you want. Or you can try to get even a simple truly informed view point and see that covid , measures that need taking mean this is not the flu and it's not a simple you get it and it go's after a a day or two. Or you get it bad and die but only with your old or at risk. 
Sadly I think we will going round and round yet again


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## icowden (12 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> Compare and contrast with anything you can find on https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus



Let's face it. I've been to Alton Towers and Legoland in the last week. People can't even manage the concept of a spot painted on the floor to show them how close they should be to the next person. 

Many were also embacing the "look kids - a lego crocodile - just because there's a global pandemic, doesn't mean you shouldn't ignore the "DO NOT CLIMB ON LEGO" signs and crawl all over it - go on see what viruses and bacteria you can pick up!". 

On the plus side I developed a good glaring technique.


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## Tanis8472 (12 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> All this is doing is yet again highlighting just how out of date the whole school and exams system is. A system that still fails 1000's every year that still see's 1000's leave without even being able to read or write. With our prisons acting as grave yard for many who the the system spat out along the way. Why we are still defining and branding young people based on a bit of paper ? Which in the end shows is how good you happened to be on the day. Sadly no government or party has the balls to really change education so it leaves no one behind or going though life believing they are a failure and too thick to give education another chance.



Come off it, that would require spending money, something this party has been spectacularly bad at.


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## srw (12 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> I suspect those two words "and pneumonia" make a significant difference


I suspect that "flu" is also suspect and is often used as a shorthand for "respiratory disease". Are these medically certified causes or those reported by unqualified relatives?

(Edit) The official flu report doesn't talk about the figure cited. 

https://assets.publishing.service.g...l_Influenza_report_06_August_2020_week_32.pdf

I'd quite like an official source, otherwise I'll chalk it up to "enthusiastic journalist misinterpreting data"


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## Rusty Nails (12 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-is-still-key-in-the-fight-against-covid-19
> 
> I work in an area under special measures and one that not 5% of residents will take any notice of. The positive "cases" don't translate into poorly people, never mind hospital admissions. *It's been over for months* and now should go into flu territory as something we accept and live with before we kill any more people and ruin our childrens futures.





MarkF said:


> I meant "over" as something a hysterical reaction should no longer play a part in. And I don't expect it to ever go away, *however I think flu is currently is taking more lives? *So many people are not coming into hospital, as reflected not only in the NHS stats but also in the % increased deaths at home.



I take it these views are opinions based on views of medical experts and verifiable statistics rather than just the views of another bloke in the pub or office.

I think I remember that you work in the NHS. In what field, and are your views widely reflected across the medical profession? I genuinely want to know as sometimes I worry that I appear to be the only person who does not claim to have any real expertise or knowledge of how serious this thing currently is.


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## kingrollo (12 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> So cases are down and more people are dying of everything else so all is well.
> How do you think covid levels got this low in the first place by magic ?
> No though doing what we did and will have to continue to do for sometime. We could now be seeing even lower cases but we never hit this hard enough even now it's debatable if we ever will.
> Has it's been pointed out time and time again the sats and the deaths are only part of.
> ...



Agreed - it just seems that those who said this is nothing to worry about back in Jan/Feb need to save face.

Goverments don't tank economies for no reason - that should tell you everything you need to know.


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## kingrollo (12 Aug 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I take it these views are opinions based on views of medical experts and verifiable statistics rather than just the views of another bloke in the pub or office.
> 
> I think I remember that you work in the NHS. In what field, and are your views widely reflected across the medical profession? I genuinely want to know as sometimes I worry that I appear to be the only person who does not claim to have any real expertise or knowledge of how serious this thing currently is.


Sparky.


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## vickster (12 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Sparky.


He’s a porter I think


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## kingrollo (12 Aug 2020)

I also work in a NHS hospital (non clinical role) 
The hospital has been totally re organised into covid/non covid sites - and they think it will be at least 2 years before we can operate at pre covid levels.

One of the big concerns is how recovered covid patients will fare when they get another minor illness.
...and the strain that extra people are now permanently or very long term disabled....what treatment will they need ?


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## tom73 (12 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I also work in a NHS hospital (non clinical role)
> The hospital has been totally re organised into covid/non covid sites - and they think it will be at least 2 years before we can operate at pre covid levels.
> 
> One of the big concerns is how recovered covid patients will fare when they get another minor illness.
> ...and the strain that extra people are now permanently or very long term disabled....what treatment will they need ?


All aspects of care will be different for some time to come. From Primary upwards some areas will be change for ever in the way they run and how we access them. The long term care/rehab of post covid is still open to question and will need some real planning as we learn more. 
Even mild cases are being left with "long covid " needed ongoing care months after catching it. Again another unknown in need of planing.
One thing is clear it's going to need a lot more money and for some time to come.


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## Rezillo (12 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> I suspect that "flu" is also suspect and is often used as a shorthand for "respiratory disease". Are these medically certified causes or those reported by unqualified relatives?
> 
> (Edit) The official flu report doesn't talk about the figure cited.
> 
> ...



Quite.

"In week 312020, out of the 211 respiratory specimens reported through the Respiratory DataMart System, no sample tested positive for influenza".

then in the next para, 161 of 229 respiratory outbreaks were found to be covid-19. 

In the linked syndromic surveillance figures, there is:

"During week 31, GP out of hours contacts for respiratory indicators (including acute respiratory infection and influenza-like illness) remained stable and at or below seasonally expected levels".

"During week 31, there were further small increases in NHS 111 calls for cold/flu. There were also increases in cough calls in children aged <1 and 1-4 years, however these remain below seasonally expected levels".


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## Joey Shabadoo (12 Aug 2020)

Now, I'm no virulog... epidemio... sickness scientist but do large rises in Germany, France and Spain herald a second wave? If so, are we going to be a few weeks behind them?


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## kingrollo (12 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Now, I'm no virulog... epidemio... sickness scientist but do large rises in Germany, France and Spain herald a second wave? If so, are we going to be a few weeks behind them?


Stands a good chance IMO.

The constant with this virus - is that the worse case scenario keeps happening.... remember when we all thought it wouldn't get of China...


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## Wobblers (13 Aug 2020)

icowden said:


> Many of the people who will die from Covid19 would have likely died from something else - Flu or respiratory infection. Many of those people are already very ill. Some people who will become seriously ill and may die from Covid19 were not particularly ill. So we try to protect as many people as possible by having sensible measures to try to ensure that spread remains slow and controlled until an effective treatment or vaccination is available.



This isn't really true. About 0.4% of those aged 40-50 die from CV19. It's 1% for the 50-60 age group. These are not, as a whole, a group who'll "likely die from something else". Furthermore, while those with certain medical conditions are more likely to die, many of those conditions are very treatable and certainly are not death sentences by themselves - diabetes being just one good example. It is incorrect to assume that these people are "already very ill". Many, probably most, are not.


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## Wobblers (13 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-is-still-key-in-the-fight-against-covid-19
> 
> I work in an area under special measures and one that not 5% of residents will take any notice of. The positive "cases" don't translate into poorly people, never mind hospital admissions. It's been over for months and now should go into flu territory as something we accept and live with before we kill any more people and ruin our childrens futures.



The evidence that's accumulating is rather contrary to this reassuring picture. The bloke from MedCram (which is by far the best CV19 source on YouTube) has gone in some depth on the long term consequences of this disease.

It does not look good. Firstly, those "positive cases that don't translate into poorly people" is a smaller group than you imply. About 40% of those infected remain asymptomatic (CDC figures). There is evidence of long term lung damage in those who have pneumonia as part of their CV19 illness. Over half those who're hospitalised show cardiac abnormalities. That is a quite staggering figure, even allowing for the fact that CV19 tends to hit those with cardiac issues hard. This data suggests that more people will suffer from damaged hearts and damaged lungs from this disease than will actually die. Possibly permanently. And there are yet more long term problems associated with CV19, notably kidney issues and strokes.

Even those who never become ill enough to be admitted to hospital, many will end up suffering months of tiredness and breathlessness. Note that both these are classic symptoms of heart disease. Of course, we don't know whether or not cardiac damage is the cause, because no one's done the research yet. But understand that even post viral fatigue can - and does - have long term consequences: having to take months off work is not uncommon.

I would suggest that trying to avoid a scenario where hundreds of thousands die of this diseases, with hundreds of thousands, perhaps over 1 million, being permanently disabled as a result would be eminently sensible. And the fact that we're seeing CV19 cases spike up again throughout Europe demonstrates that we cannot be complacent. Flu does not behave in this manner. CV19 is not flu. Treating it as such risks more deaths and quite possibly a greater number of permanent invalids.


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## Joey Shabadoo (13 Aug 2020)

Thank you @McWobble for having the patience to write such a concise and informative post.


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## marinyork (13 Aug 2020)

Write some stuff on LamPORE and DNANudge if you are back.


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## raleighnut (13 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Agreed - it just seems that those who said this is nothing to worry about back in Jan/Feb need to save face.
> 
> Goverments don't tank economies for no reason - that should tell you everything you need to know.


Aye but some members of this current government are making fortunes based on the economy 'tanking'


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## marinyork (13 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Now, I'm no virulog... epidemio... sickness scientist but do large rises in Germany, France and Spain herald a second wave? If so, are we going to be a few weeks behind them?



Interestingly it is reported in Spain that some places the governments are calling it a second wave (don't know whether this is true or not I don't speak Spanish, nor watch local news). The graph for daily infections for Spain with the semantic arguments between spike, surge, wave, outbreaks and so on I would call Spain a second wave, it's just a fraction of the size of the first one.


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## SpokeyDokey (13 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Interestingly it is reported in Spain that some places the governments are calling it a second wave (don't know whether this is true or not I don't speak Spanish, nor watch local news). The graph for daily infections for Spain with the semantic arguments between spike, surge, wave, outbreaks and so on I would call Spain a second wave, it's just a fraction of the size of the first one.



Depending on disposition, I guess one person's ripple is another person's tsunami.


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## marinyork (13 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Depending on disposition, I guess one person's ripple is another person's tsunami.



To clarify I wouldn't call france or germany a second wave. Spain yes. 

The main issue I have is how politicians and medics describe it has an impact on how people see things and ultimately behave. There are plenty of people that think that's it its over more or less even with a few local outbreaks.

Tsunami is for the mental health.


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## DCLane (13 Aug 2020)

SWMBO's NHS Trust is referring to changes in infection rates as 'ebb and flow' rather than a 'second wave' within the Covid-19 rehab ward she's in.

They're modelling number predictions of infections > hospital admissions > intensive care > then to her rehab ward.


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## deptfordmarmoset (13 Aug 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-population-may-have-had-covid-study-suggests

Imperial college research suggesting that 13% of Londoners have covid-19 antibodies. That's the nearest to believable figure that I have seen so far. The article isn't perfectly clear which are London and national figures but whites come in at 5% and BAME at 17%, care home workers - 16%, healthcare workers - 12%, other professions- 5%

EDIT: And somewhat reassuringly, antibodies seem to stay present in the blood over time.


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## marinyork (13 Aug 2020)

DCLane said:


> SWMBO's NHS Trust is referring to changes in infection rates as 'ebb and flow' rather than a 'second wave' within the Covid-19 rehab ward she's in.
> 
> They're modelling number predictions of infections > hospital admissions > intensive care > then to her rehab ward.



Which is fine. Spain however is another matter. Spain is having a second wave. Or whatever you want to call it isn't small.


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## marinyork (13 Aug 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-population-may-have-had-covid-study-suggests
> 
> Imperial college research suggesting that 13% of Londoners have covid-19 antibodies. That's the nearest to believable figure that I have seen so far. The article isn't perfectly clear which are London and national figures but whites come in at 5% and BAME at 17%, care home workers - 16%, healthcare workers - 12%, other professions- 5%
> 
> EDIT: And somewhat reassuringly, antibodies seem to stay present in the blood over time.



Similar, depending on when they were taken almost identical, but lower to other robust studies. Given the study was done slightly later, it could actually suggest that something like a sixth or more of people have had the virus and antibodies no longer detectable.

It's interesting as it appears to have more detail than the previous study though. It's curious this comes out with 32% no symptoms as this is in very stark contrast with a robust study that had 70% no symptoms. Not in terms of damage done as people are quibbling about on here, but that would suggest that various restriction policies should change back the other towards easing at a faster speed if true.


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## deptfordmarmoset (13 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Similar, depending on when they were taken almost identical, but lower to other robust studies. Given the study was done slightly later, it could actually suggest that something like a sixth or more of people have had the virus and antibodies no longer detectable.


Though it's not quantified, ''nearly all'' who'd previously tested positive were found to have antibodies. Your sixth would have to be from amongst the mild-and-asymptomatic cases who were never tested.


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Given the study was done slightly later, it could actually suggest that something like a sixth or more of people have had the virus and antibodies no longer detectable



I've not read the study, but it's been reported that there was a 96% correlation of positive antibody test to previous positive PCR test. 

I might have missed something, but that suggests, very encouragingly, that antibodies stick around, at least for the timescale of this study


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## marinyork (13 Aug 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Though it's not quantified, ''nearly all'' who'd previously tested positive were found to have antibodies. Your sixth would have to be from amongst the mild-and-asymptomatic cases who were never tested.



No. Previous robust studies got higher - 7% nationally and 15% IIRC for London. That could just be within errors and they are the same of course. 

There have been a few studies the last couple of months that track antibody positive and they talk about it fading.

The sixth that you talk about (a sixth of a small percentage) is probably a lot, lot larger, but still a small percentage of the overall population if you believe things like the tiny swedish T cell study.


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## marinyork (13 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I've not read the study, but it's been reported that there was a 96% correlation of positive antibody test to previous positive PCR test.
> 
> I might have missed something, but that suggests, very encouragingly, that antibodies stick around, at least for the timescale of this study



Commentary the last few months has been at odds with that  (holding up, more starts to go, or goes quite a lot in mild or no symptoms).

New England Journal of Medicine - half life of antibodies is 73 days in mild cases. _Nature medicine_ also had a study in June that said for those without symptoms a large percentage became antibody positive quickly, and for those with serious symptoms around a seventh...

It was a passing comment. I found it odd that the imperial studied crunched out lower numbers than a previous robust study. One explanation is the antibody positive threshold for the virus has gone already. Or that could be nonsense. The study is important, but it doesn't tell us anything new as far as I can see apart from drilled down detail. As our most argumentative poster is back, of course the antibody levels don't really tell us much at all and what level of antibodies equates to partial protection hasn't been worked out yet at all. That's obvious but he'll probs be around in a second or two. What has been learned about antibodies so far is however quite troubling in terms of a vaccine search though.


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## tom73 (13 Aug 2020)

If only we'd have a good solid national data from day one. Not only would we have a better idea what covid levels really reached and how it was moving though the population. We'd also have a solid data set to test and judge what ever studies and thinking came alone. 
But that would have taken good sound local level public health testing. Which all but got killed off long ago along with any hope of truly getting on top of covid.


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## Joey Shabadoo (13 Aug 2020)




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## raleighnut (13 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 541466


I'll try it


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## tom73 (13 Aug 2020)

So Whitty made it clear the are at the safe limit of opening up so Boirs pulled back. Now he's gone the other way and open things right up again. But than takes note of SAGE on aerosol transmission and up's mask use for "close contact" services. But not for other staff like shop workers or even teachers but for then begins them in for "vocational training environments" So much for guided by the science 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53772735


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## classic33 (13 Aug 2020)

Easing lockdown!





There's been further updates to some staff, this afternoon, and it's not sounding too good.


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## classic33 (14 Aug 2020)

Huddersfield councillor, who celebrated his 50th birthday in the Lake District, says lockdown restrictions don't apply outside of the affected areas.

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news...ield-councillor-denies-50th-birthday-18764065


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## tom73 (14 Aug 2020)

He must have sent Covid to the kennels for a week.


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## deptfordmarmoset (14 Aug 2020)

While we've been counting on the government, they've been double counting on us. 1,308,071 tests removed from the list. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...etly-drops-13m-covid-tests-from-england-tally


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## tom73 (14 Aug 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> While we've been counting on the government, they've been double counting on us. 1,308,071 tests removed from the list. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...etly-drops-13m-covid-tests-from-england-tally


Is this the technical issue that meant no test number being made available for yesterday ? 
Double counting is not unknown after all they count single gloves as the number of gloves issued.


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## deptfordmarmoset (14 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Is this the technical issue that meant no test number being made available for yesterday ?
> Double counting is not unknown after all they count single gloves as the number of gloves issued.


I've no idea what ways of deceiving us that they're planning. We'll find out in due time, I suppose.


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## kingrollo (14 Aug 2020)

Surely all these different counts do the required damage. All the stats are discredited and they become less of an issue.

This is the govt that cured child poverty by altering the way it was counted.


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 Aug 2020)

300 positive cases at a M&S sandwich factory! 

Just as well it wasn't a butter factory, who knows how far it might have spread?


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## MarkF (14 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> Easing lockdown!
> View attachment 541537
> 
> 
> There's been further updates to some staff, this afternoon, and it's not sounding too good.



These lockdowns based highly spurious "cases" have huge consequences for the local populations. There must be another way to determine risk, ICU patients or even hospital admissions?


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 Aug 2020)

Spain just banned all smoking in public areas.

yay!


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## MarkF (14 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> That's a claim you might want to substantiate. Because your series of posts reads very much like encouragement to the rest of us to do something dangerous.



I got the figures from the ONS, like the NHS stats, they are there and useful, I am not encouraging anybody to do anything dangerous. 


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...glandandwalesprovisional/weekending31july2020


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## classic33 (14 Aug 2020)

We've had 8 deaths, in a local population of just over 12,000, in the last two months.

But when the person "in charge" doesn't appear to know what's going on, what hope for us.


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## MarkF (14 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Depending on disposition, I guess one person's ripple is another person's tsunami.


 A tsunami of Spanish cases whilst their death rate simultaneously decreases. I saw graph yesterday, I'll see if I can find it.


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> I think flu is currently is taking more lives?



1. I suspect this is inaccurate. You later state ONS as your source. Presumably this? https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...glandandwalesprovisional/weekending31july2020

If yes, please note that "influenza+pneumonia" is not "influenza". If no, I'd be interested in your source

2. It's irrelevant. The point with COVID is not current deaths, but potential to accelerate. As we've already demonstrated, without containment measures, we will very rapidly get to tend of thousands of deaths. The spread roughly doubles every 3 days, unconstrained.


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## MarkF (14 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> 1. I suspect this is inaccurate. You later state ONS as your source. Presumably this? https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...glandandwalesprovisional/weekending31july2020
> 
> If yes, please note that "influenza+pneumonia" is not "influenza". If no, I'd be interested in your source
> 
> 2. It's irrelevant. The point with COVID is not current deaths, but potential to accelerate. As we've already demonstrated, without containment measures, we will very rapidly get to tend of thousands of deaths. The spread roughly doubles every 3 days, unconstrained.



Yes and granted I should have included "pneumonia", however many seasonal flu victims are finally taken out by that. This is summer flu+p by the way, that has been killing more than Covid 19 for 2 months now, it is relevant as it gives some perspective.

The Spain graph.


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> it is relevant as it gives some perspective.



The perspective is that the huge effort to control the virus has worked, and we'll be right back where we started very rapidly if we drop that effort.


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> The Spain graph



What do you infer from this graph, and why?


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## DCLane (14 Aug 2020)

The difference is not just the infection/death rates but also how many are and will suffer from long-term health issues as a result,, something you have less of from Flu. Mrs DCLane's dealng with these complications in her patients and a high percentage are expected to have these for life.


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## kingrollo (14 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The perspective is that the huge effort to control the virus has worked, and we'll be right back where we started very rapidly if we drop that effort.


I'd let it lie - he has said from day 1 that covid is overhyped. If that last 5 months haven't convinced him otherwise - I'm not really sure what will.


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## Rocky (14 Aug 2020)

And just before someone tries to hold up Sweden as the way to deal with Covid

21 Swedish experts denounced “herd” policy: “The strategy has led to death, grief, & suffering—no indications that the Swedish economy has fared better. We have set an example for world on how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease.”

https://fortune.com/2020/07/27/herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-sweden/


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## tom73 (14 Aug 2020)

One thing is clear from the stats even with lockdown we never pushed hard enough. Sure we slowed Covid down and bashed it about. But never really rammed it home now we are seeing the effect. Cases now look to be down but yet again they are just levelling off. All we ever look to do is see cases go up and down only to level off. Ok some can say so are other counties some are even worse then us. 

That is true even New Zealand with 102 days all clear has seen new cases. The difference is they found 4 then locked down the area. Went in hard tracking and tracing leading to 14 new cases. 13 traced from the original 4. That‘s a track and trace response we can even now only dream of. That’s the sort of response that Covid only understands. That’s how you deal with infectious disease you hit it as hard as you can. 

We never did because the government messed up and still is. But helped along the way by people just looked at how to get to round the rules and ones who never tried to understand any of this and just treated it as total joke.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Aug 2020)

numbnuts said:


> So me being 69 in October with no dependents would it be wise to blow my life saving now


You got any cash left to celebrate your 69th? 
I blew most of mine on alcohol, hand cleaning alcohol.


----------



## srw (14 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I'd let it lie - he has said from day 1 that covid is overhyped. If that last 5 months haven't convinced him otherwise - I'm not really sure what will.


This?

It's an essential watch. The whole thing is sobering, the last scene especially so.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episo...~m000ljnb~P_SurvivingTheVirus_MyBrotherAndMe]


----------



## MarkF (15 Aug 2020)

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...tch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zh_newsletter

This sums up my outlook, I was worried about the reaction and the subsequent consequences._ 

Pandemics always come with large economic and social costs, for reasons of altruism as well as of self-interest. The only way to contain the spread of a deadly, contagious disease, in the absence of a cure or vaccine, is to social distance; fear and panic inevitably kick in, as the public desperately seeks to avoid catching the virus. A “voluntary” recession is almost guaranteed.

But if a drop in GDP is unavoidable, governments can influence its size and scale. Politicians can react in one of three ways to a pandemic. They can do nothing, and allow the disease to rip until herd immunity is reached. Quite rightly, no government has pursued this policy, out of fear of mass deaths and total social and economic collapse.

The second approach involves imposing proportionate restrictions to facilitate social distancing, banning certain sorts of gatherings while encouraging and informing the public. The Swedes pursued a version of this centrist strategy: there was a fair bit of compulsion, but also a focus on retaining normal life and keeping schools open. The virus was taken very seriously, but there was no formal lockdown. Tegnell is one of the few genuine heroes of this crisis: he identified the correct trade-offs._


----------



## midlife (15 Aug 2020)

Have you missed the third way?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (15 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/sweden-hit-rare-covid-triple-whammy-no-lockdowns-low-deaths-minimal-economic-damage?utm_campaign=&utm_content=ZeroHedge:+The+Durden+Dispatch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zh_newsletter
> 
> This sums up my outlook, I was worried about the reaction and the subsequent consequences._
> 
> ...



Sweden has an order of magnitude more deaths than other Nordics, and the same or worse economic hit. 

If their aim was to limit economic damage, it failed. 

If their aim was to limit deaths, it failed catastrophically. 

_Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb COVID-19. Don't do what we did. It's not working

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opini...munity-drove-up-death-toll-column/5472100002/_


----------



## randynewmanscat (15 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/sweden-hit-rare-covid-triple-whammy-no-lockdowns-low-deaths-minimal-economic-damage?utm_campaign=&utm_content=ZeroHedge:+The+Durden+Dispatch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zh_newsletter
> 
> This sums up my outlook, I was worried about the reaction and the subsequent consequences._
> 
> ...


This comment by one of the founders of zerohedge to Bloomberg sums up the state of the website since it became a tool. 
"Russia=good. Obama=idiot. Bashar al-Assad=benevolent leader. John Kerry= dunce. Vladimir Putin=greatest leader in the history of statecraft."
In 2008 it was a libertarian website with very accurate insider advice and comment.
Now it is a disinformation portal.


----------



## srw (15 Aug 2020)

midlife said:


> Have you missed the third way?


That would be Germany or New Zealand - enough restrictions to squish the disease so that the economy can get back to normal quickly. And the fourth, the British way - fart around failing to put systems in place, declare your actions "world beating" and have the worst economic impact in Europe.


----------



## marinyork (15 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> That would be Germany or New Zealand - enough restrictions to squish the disease so that the economy can get back to normal quickly. And the fourth, the British way - fart around failing to put systems in place, declare your actions "world beating" and have the worst economic impact in Europe.



New Zealand isn't a realistic comparison, Germany is.

One of the curious things with the UK is it's been reported on tv without a source several times the last couple of weeks that the UK has the lowest percentage of people at work in Europe at the moment. It's curious if this is true and if so why? If it's the case also in terms of virus rates.


----------



## vickster (15 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> New Zealand isn't a realistic comparison, Germany is.
> 
> One of the curious things with the UK is it's been reported on tv without a source several times the last couple of weeks that the UK has the lowest percentage of people at work in Europe at the moment. It's curious if this is true and if so why? If it's the case also in terms of virus rates.


Furlough scheme still ongoing here, not elsewhere?


----------



## Stephenite (15 Aug 2020)

@MarkF I can't be bothered clicking on the link as it's plain to see from the three paragraphs you pasted it's peddling an inaccurate assumption.

But let's say there are three ways to dealing with a pandemic:- do nothing; partial lockdown; total lockdown.

All the countries in Europe are taking 'the second approach. UK, Sweden, etc. Not one country is taking the first or the third.


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## marinyork (15 Aug 2020)

vickster said:


> Furlough scheme still ongoing here, not elsewhere?



It could be.


----------



## silva (15 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> That's a claim you might want to substantiate. Because your series of posts reads very much like encouragement to the rest of us to do something dangerous.


An influenza-season toll is listed as a 250000-500000 deaths annually.
Corona SARS-CoV2 season was listed last week as 730000 deaths.
I've read the statement (didn't bother yet so far to verificate) that some countries register influenza as corona.
But I'll this last completely aside: Corona is now 50% more worse than influenza.
And I'm willing to make it 100% more worse.
And even 500% more worse.
It's still nothing compared to the influenza of 1918, the worst ever recorded, for what recording was worth back then. And it was during the last year of one of the biggest catastrophes that governments caused historically.
And, that worst-ever influenza, just lasted like 6 months (per world region).

Then tell me, all that extreme usage of force upon populations, now in 2020, to "cope" with this new corona family virus, what word would YOU stick on it ?


----------



## silva (15 Aug 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Indeed.
> Pity Trumpton doesn't let facts get in the way. He's thick as 2 shirt planks.


I care as much about Trump as I cared about Obama and all their predecessors: nothing.
What I do care about is the reasons that people voted for him. I agree with them. That's the positive light I saw when Trump got elected, not Trump, in the end ALL politicians at election time just say what people want to hear, why would Trump be different?
And why would it matter anyway?
I'm far away from United States, never been there, but I do know some history, and that is that people fleed the literal and figurative ruins governments made of European countries, to find and work on new found land, to start a new living and a new society. Sadly, governments there also popped up, bringing the once free land to the ugly prisoners camp it became now. Happily, there is still a population part fighting government. I see these as a hope in a world that becomes central planned darked with the day.


----------



## MarkF (15 Aug 2020)

The pandemic has now, after deaths have dwindled and spikes didn't arrive, and for reasons we don't yet know, admissions and deaths dramatically falling, is now a casedemic where we are cherry picking "likely" demographic areas, providing easy cases via a very flawed system from asymtomatic people who are not and unlikely to be poorly, proven in the Leicester cases.

I believe we've overeacted and the damage is going to be worse than the virus, much worse. I don't agree with anti-vaxxers, Bill Gates crackpots, virus deniers or plandemic believers but I am not virus fixated either. It's clear, on here and elsewhere, that opinions are largely politically motivated and again, I am stuck in the middle. We have a growing cancer ticking timebomb of delayed and cancelled treatments along with another timebomb of people who don't yet know that they have cancer, that's just cancer. At some point we will find that you cannot just "switch" business back on, scaring the customer base witless and introducing financial insecurity into millions is unlikely to result in spending. Oh, and pubs are open yet schools still shut.

I'll leave it again and ignore the thread and go back to following Doctors, Oncologists, Biophysists and the like on Twitter, I can't help it, I naturally gravitate towards positive reading. Let's hope for the best for everybody. I leave a positive snippet from an ICU Doctor worth following. 

Dr. Ron Daniels.
_I think we’ve got a BIT better at decision-making in people with COVID. Effect of Dex and antivirals likely there but small. Immunity seriously unknown. But something is happening to diminish the admissions and deaths impact of SARS-CoV-2. _


----------



## Rocky (15 Aug 2020)

Just in case anyone is in any doubt....the latest Covid stats






Numbers are still rising alarmingly. This is not trivial and it is not going away.


----------



## silva (15 Aug 2020)

The virus ran out of weak enough victims.
See, people can't die twice.


----------



## srw (15 Aug 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> What a crass uniformed post. Strong people catch it and die - viral load is important. Plus there’s plenty of vulnerable people who haven’t been infected yet. Somehow you seem to be arguing that it’s ok to let them catch Covid and die.


Plus there are plenty of less vulnerable people who got it and became vulnerable. Even if you "recover" from the acute illness there's lots of examples of people who have been left seriously chronically ill.


----------



## marinyork (15 Aug 2020)

Around 10 million out of 66 million.


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## Joey Shabadoo (15 Aug 2020)

silva said:


> I care as much about Trump as I cared about Obama and all their predecessors: nothing.
> What I do care about is the reasons that people voted for him. I agree with them. That's the positive light I saw when Trump got elected, not Trump, in the end ALL politicians at election time just say what people want to hear, why would Trump be different?
> And why would it matter anyway?
> I'm far away from United States, never been there, but I do know some history, and that is that people fleed the literal and figurative ruins governments made of European countries, to find and work on new found land, to start a new living and a new society. Sadly, governments there also popped up, bringing the once free land to the ugly prisoners camp it became now. Happily, there is still a population part fighting government. I see these as a hope in a world that becomes central planned darked with the day.


----------



## tom73 (15 Aug 2020)

Sadly only a matter of time 
https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/hea...r-delaying-patient-review-due-inadequate-ppe/
To place any HCP in this position is shocking the fact the BMA and RCN had to issue guidelines and the NMC supported them is beyond belief. 
No HCP should have been left in a position to decide my safely or delay patient care.


----------



## silva (15 Aug 2020)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
Or, in a population "available" to the virus, a population with a certain social behaviour, that "k" will initially be equal to 2.5 of 3 (= R0 of CoVid-19), so we get exponential divergation.

The more people get infected, sick, immune or die, the less the POTENTIAL infected people also become sick. If a fraction X of people become immune, then, of that potential-infected 2.5 or 3 that would be infected, only 1-X amount "available" to become sick.
So k becomes R0 * (1 - X)

When does the epidemy stop: if k becomes 1. At first, k = R0, and when more and more first become sick to then die or become immune, k drops because X rises.
So not everybody has to become sick. It suffices that k becomes 1.

That's when R0 * (1 - X) = 1, or put the other way: when X equals 1 - 1/R0
So as long as not 60% (R0 of CoVid-19 is estimated as 2.5-3%) of the population became immune, you cannot remove your restrictions.

It's the same as in a nuclear power reactor, where they stopped the fission with a confinement borium rod. You can't remove the bar without restarting the fission. Unless the very last neutron disappeared, which is impossible, and there are also neutrons from cosmic origin. You can never remove the confinement bar.

So there is only one exception case: if the very last covid-19 patient in the entire world died or became immune. And much earlier than then, another virus family/type can have popped up, that the human immune system again doesn't recognize, starting over the entire story.

De Spanish flu killed 50 - 100 miljoen people in 2 or 3 months in 1918, to then disappear nearly completely.
Came back in 1919, to make sick the people that "protected" themselves in 1918. In the end, the estimation was a 25-70% of worlds population had have gotten it. They mournt their deaths, they stopped shedding tears to then continu life.

What governments now did / do in 2020, is purposely halting peoples life, by forced upon suicidal restrictions.


----------



## midlife (15 Aug 2020)

This is an interesting read about the stats of recording covid deaths, I always wondered why the new headline statistic was a death within 28 days of initial positive swab. 

88% of COVID deaths occur within 28 days, if I read it right. 


https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/08/12/behind-the-headlines-counting-covid-19-deaths/


----------



## kingrollo (15 Aug 2020)

MarkF said:


> The pandemic has now, after deaths have dwindled and spikes didn't arrive, and for reasons we don't yet know, admissions and deaths dramatically falling, is now a casedemic where we are cherry picking "likely" demographic areas, providing easy cases via a very flawed system from asymtomatic people who are not and unlikely to be poorly, proven in the Leicester cases.
> 
> I believe we've overeacted and the damage is going to be worse than the virus, much worse. I don't agree with anti-vaxxers, Bill Gates crackpots, virus deniers or plandemic believers but I am not virus fixated either. It's clear, on here and elsewhere, that opinions are largely politically motivated and again, I am stuck in the middle. We have a growing cancer ticking timebomb of delayed and cancelled treatments along with another timebomb of people who don't yet know that they have cancer, that's just cancer. At some point we will find that you cannot just "switch" business back on, scaring the customer base witless and introducing financial insecurity into millions is unlikely to result in spending. Oh, and pubs are open yet schools still shut.
> 
> ...



Why do you think cases and deaths have fallen ? (Hint: lockdown and social distancing maybe)

Do you think cases and deaths will increase as people spend more time inside as the weather turns cooler ?

Even the Dr you quote - doesn't know why deaths are falling.

Can't possibly see how it's polictal - has the main opposition party not broadly supported the govt ? - I think most people on this thread just think you are wrong.


----------



## silva (15 Aug 2020)

A flu is a typical winter season story.
For some reasons...


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## kingrollo (15 Aug 2020)

silva said:


> A flu is a typical winter season story.
> For some reasons...


Because even pre covid. Hospitals struggled with admissions etc due to flu from mid Oct until mid march.
It's known as winter pressures in the trade.


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## DCLane (15 Aug 2020)

I had my flu jab phone call yesterday - 3 months early - so they must be getting these done ASAP.


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## marinyork (15 Aug 2020)

DCLane said:


> I had my flu jab phone call yesterday - 3 months early - so they must be getting these done ASAP.



Awesome. That is the sort of level of improvement in organisation we need.


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## silva (15 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Because even pre covid. Hospitals struggled with admissions etc due to flu from mid Oct until mid march.
> It's known as winter pressures in the trade.


It's known as virus that survives shorter due to UV light and a few other specific reasons (alike humidity).
City may be a less pronounced case, for the obvious reason.
Virus spreading has a strong correlation with temperature.
It could well be that the summer weather brought the infections down, overclassing governments 1st lockdown that rather helped the virus spreading than blocking it (masses people hampstering, forced shopping cart usage by professional security guards that the first week didn't even disinfected the carts. Here in BE the peak arrived alike 3-4 weeks later, with most of the exponential part of the curve laying inside that period. Go figure.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (15 Aug 2020)

silva said:


> It could well be that the summer weather brought the infections down



Sure, hit weather definitely prevents COVID. 

That's why Brazil and the Southern US are unaffected. 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6501/315


----------



## kingrollo (15 Aug 2020)

silva said:


> It's known as virus that survives shorter due to UV light and a few other specific reasons (alike humidity).
> City may be a less pronounced case, for the obvious reason.
> Virus spreading has a strong correlation with temperature.
> It could well be that the summer weather brought the infections down, overclassing governments 1st lockdown that rather helped the virus spreading than blocking it (masses people hampstering, forced shopping cart usage by professional security guards that the first week didn't even disinfected the carts. Here in BE the peak arrived alike 3-4 weeks later, with most of the exponential part of the curve laying inside that period. Go figure.


Was it ever proven that the virus survives detoriates in warmer conditions. I know it was a longstanding theory - but wasn't aware it was backed by any hard evidence.


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## roubaixtuesday (15 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Was it ever proven that the virus survives detoriates in warmer conditions. I know it was a longstanding theory - but wasn't aware it was backed by any hard evidence.



I helpfully linked a paper above: 

"Our findings suggest that without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth."


----------



## tom73 (16 Aug 2020)

Being reported Hancock is set to axe "failing'' PHE within days and move it's functions to Test and Trace.
Of all the things you do in the middle of a public health emergency do yet another reorganisation of bit's of the NHS.
If PHE is failing Matt the last time I looked so is Test and Trace.
Can't help think it would have saved a lot of work by just giving PHE the money and capacity to Test and Trace in the first place.

The bottom line here is NHS test and trace is Serco test and trace so NHS PHE overnight is privatised. Funny enough Dido's husband a Tory MP advisers the 1828 Tory think tank which has called for PHE to go and a US type of health care. So take as a given Dido set to be running the show ?


----------



## DaveReading (16 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> So take as a given Dido set to be running the show ?



BBC are reporting so.

You couldn't make this stuff up.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (16 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Dido set to be running the show ?



The Baroness Harding of Winscombe?

Friend of David Cameron at Oxford?

Current head of the disastrously poor centralised test n trace system?

Jockey club executive who ensured Cheltenham went ahead in the teeth of a pandemic?

Spouse of Conservative MP John Penrose?

Perfect candidate for the job. Those suggestion cronyism and corruption should damn well stop talking the country down.


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## marinyork (16 Aug 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-53769749

BBC reports from a few venues in the south west that eat out to help out is causing what I would just call greed.


----------



## RoadRider400 (16 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-53769749
> 
> BBC reports from a few venues in the south west that eat out to help out is causing what I would just call greed.



Article doesnt make much sense to me.

"People are ordering big, big meals; they are not willing to wait for their food; our staff are being shouted at for having no tables, or for the service being slow. It's put an awful lot of strain on our waiting staff and kitchen staff."

Surely if you have x number of tables in the restuarant you should have kitchen and waiting staff numbers capable of servicing x number of tables, doesnt matter who is paying for the food. If you cannot service full capacity during the week due to fewer staff then dont fill them all. Sounds like the owners are being just as greedy as the customers. Notwithstanding that there is no excuse for rudeness towards staff.


----------



## Rusty Nails (16 Aug 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Article doesnt make much sense to me.
> 
> "People are ordering big, big meals; they are not willing to wait for their food; our staff are being shouted at for having no tables, or for the service being slow. It's put an awful lot of strain on our waiting staff and kitchen staff."
> 
> Surely if you have x number of tables in the restuarant you should have kitchen and waiting staff numbers capable of servicing x number of tables, doesnt matter who is paying for the food. If you cannot service full capacity during the week due to fewer staff then dont fill them all. Sounds like the owners are being just as greedy as the customers. Notwithstanding that there is no excuse for rudeness towards staff.



People are turning up when there is not enough room and complaining. Restaurants having to adjust staffing levels for what were off-peak days. Greedy customers taking advantage of the discount to stuff themselves with cheaper food.


----------



## RoadRider400 (16 Aug 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> People are turning up when there is not enough room and complaining. Restaurants having to adjust staffing levels for what were off-peak days. Greedy customers taking advantage of the discount to stuff themselves with cheaper food.


Not sure what your point is. All of those can be overcome by the a manager or owner taking control of staffing levels and working the door at busy times. If they can't do that then they are in the wrong job. Surely greedy customers stuffing themselves with cheap food is in the interests of the venue. They still get paid full price.


----------



## Adam4868 (16 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-53769749
> 
> BBC reports from a few venues in the south west that eat out to help out is causing what I would just call greed.


Mon,Tues,Weds you've no chance of getting in a resteraunt round here without queueing.
On a similar note tried booking a few in Llandudno this week as going to see partners sister.All we tried were fully booked Wednesday ! 
Guess that eat out to help out has proved popular.


----------



## Tanis8472 (16 Aug 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1294734305692979201


It's really a clusterfark isn't it


----------



## Rezillo (16 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Can't help think it would have saved a lot of work by just giving PHE the money and capacity to Test and Trace in the first place.
> 
> The bottom line here is NHS test and trace is Serco test and trace so NHS PHE overnight is privatised. Funny enough Dido's husband a Tory MP advisers the 1828 Tory think tank which has called for PHE to go and a US type of health care. So take as a given Dido set to be running the show ?



What's remarkable is that the people with years of experience in the field of testing and tracing with respect to notifiable diseases are already out there sitting in local authorities, under the control of DPHs, largely doing nothing because they've been excluded from the process. We even had systems for scaling up by training existing staff in other departments to help in the event of ID outbreaks affecting hundreds of people.

The only thing that has been missing is the system for linking their findings into a national network for daily reporting. I could see that this would need private sector involvement, given my experience of LA and NHS IT systems. I see some DPHs/LAs have now decided to go their own way on this and I don't blame them.

A while back, I rang my old team, expecting them to be out and about interviewing and perhaps worried about the risk to their own health but I needn't have been concerned - their own involvement in the process was zero.


----------



## Rusty Nails (16 Aug 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Not sure what your point is. All of those can be overcome by the a manager or owner taking control of staffing levels and working the door at busy times. If they can't do that then they are in the wrong job. Surely greedy customers stuffing themselves with cheap food is in the interests of the venue. They still get paid full price.



Restaurant owners are having to deal with larger number of customers on certain days while having to reduce their capacity to deal with social distancing requirements. That some are struggling to cope is not surprising given how different the situation is to their normal operations, and I doubt it is down to greed, having been shut for so long, more like survival.

Imo bargain hunters looking for something for next to nothing are mostly the greedy ones.


----------



## mjr (16 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> New Zealand isn't a realistic comparison, Germany is.


Why is a federal state with many land borders a better comparison with the UK than a unitary island state?


----------



## mjr (16 Aug 2020)

midlife said:


> This is an interesting read about the stats of recording covid deaths, I always wondered why the new headline statistic was a death within 28 days of initial positive swab.


I seem to slowly be hearing of covid survivors who are months later falling with heart attacks or lung problems when, as far as I know, they hadn't known problems before. Presumably, they won't be counted as covid deaths unless they test positive again but it's difficult to see what else they really are. I think the excess deaths figures are far more realistic because they will capture these.


----------



## kingrollo (16 Aug 2020)

I know someone will post a sob sob story - but aren't restaurant s massively profitable anyway ?


----------



## vickster (16 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I know someone will post a sob sob story - but aren't restaurant s massively profitable anyway ?


No, hence lots of chains especially going bust or struggling before Covid happened!
Byron, Prezzo, Carluccios to name 3...no sob story, reality


----------



## Milzy (16 Aug 2020)

Historically humans on earth have always put the economy/profits before human life.
Why change now? Have we suddenly decided that life is more precious than anything and that up to 2% of the world's population dying isn't acceptable?
Banning private owned diesel cars and coal power stations would save just as many lives. 
I can't do with conspiracy theories but a few folk are saying the economy is been crashed on purpose. What if they're right?


----------



## tom73 (16 Aug 2020)

Rezillo said:


> What's remarkable is that the people with years of experience in the field of testing and tracing with respect to notifiable diseases are already out there sitting in local authorities, under the control of DPHs, largely doing nothing because they've been excluded from the process. We even had systems for scaling up by training existing staff in other departments to help in the event of ID outbreaks affecting hundreds of people.
> 
> The only thing that has been missing is the system for linking their findings into a national network for daily reporting. I could see that this would need private sector involvement, given my experience of LA and NHS IT systems. I see some DPHs/LAs have now decided to go their own way on this and I don't blame them.
> 
> A while back, I rang my old team, expecting them to be out and about interviewing and perhaps worried about the risk to their own health but I needn't have been concerned - their own involvement in the process was zero.



Exactly it’s been going on for years contact tracing is nothing new. If governments had not been hollowed out , sold of and down graded public health. We‘d have had no need to panic and build a system capable of being scaled up. Saving time and the total balls up along the way.
The fact that at one point we only had national capacity for about 70 test a day say’s it all.

As for private involvement Serco don’t even let Serco anyway near Health Care in Serco ran prisons. 
Even with private involvement it’s still not working how a glorified failed mobile phone monkey. Over night becomes an expert in public health is beyond believe. Handing over even more public health to her is way past a joke.


----------



## Rusty Nails (16 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I know someone will post a sob sob story - but aren't restaurant s massively profitable anyway ?



Big restaurants, small restaurants, privately owned or national chain, cafes?

What does massively profitable mean? Where do you get your figures from?


----------



## Rusty Nails (16 Aug 2020)

Milzy said:


> Historically humans on earth have always put the economy/profits before human life.
> Why change now? Have we suddenly decided that life is more precious than anything and that up to 2% of the world's population dying isn't acceptable?
> Banning private owned diesel cars and coal power stations would save just as many lives.
> I can't do with conspiracy theories but a few folk are saying the economy is been crashed on purpose. What if they're right?



They're not!

I don't believe in conspiracy theories......but!!!


----------



## Adam4868 (16 Aug 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Big restaurants, small restaurants, privately owned or national chain, cafes?
> 
> What does massively profitable mean? Where do you get your figures from?


McDonald's, Kentucky,Subway....massively profitable.


----------



## vickster (16 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> McDonald's, Kentucky,Subway....massively profitable.


He said restaurants


----------



## icowden (16 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> McDonald's, Kentucky,Subway....massively profitable.


For the company, not for the Franchisee who owns the store and sells the food. *IF* they have a good location then the franchise owner can make a reasonable living. The parent company make the money not the restaurants.


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## Adam4868 (16 Aug 2020)

vickster said:


> He said restaurants


We're civilised up north,you can sit in each of these.Cutlery is optional though.


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## Adam4868 (16 Aug 2020)

icowden said:


> For the company, not for the Franchisee who owns the store and sells the food. *IF* they have a good location then the franchise owner can make a reasonable living. The parent company make the money not the restaurants.


When's the last time you noticed a Mc franchise closing down ?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (17 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> When's the last time you noticed a Mc franchise closing down ?


March 23rd.


----------



## vickster (17 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> We're civilised up north,you can sit in each of these. Flimsy plastic environmentally-damaging Cutlery is optional though.


FTFY


----------



## Adam4868 (17 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> March 23rd.


Almost forgot that. They've had it tough I'll give you that...🙄
I'm guessing Rishi's not going to look to hard at McDonald's playing the eat out to help out scheme ? You know it's only for eating in,no takeaways....yea right.You have to feel for them.


----------



## Rusty Nails (17 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> We're civilised up north,you can sit in each of these.Cutlery is optional though.



And unlimited brown sauce. Yum.


----------



## Adam4868 (17 Aug 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> And unlimited brown sauce. Yum.


It's HP...I don't do cheap alternatives.


----------



## Rusty Nails (17 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> It's HP...I don't do cheap alternatives.


Do they do sachets of HP in MacD's?


----------



## Adam4868 (17 Aug 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Do they do sachets of HP in MacD's?


You'd have to ask someone that actually eats there.


----------



## PeteXXX (17 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> You'd have to ask someone that actually eats there.


They have pump action sauce silos.. 
DAMHIKT


----------



## Adam4868 (17 Aug 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> They have pump action sauce silos..
> DAMHIKT


Enough said....


----------



## PK99 (17 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> Why is a federal state with many land borders a better comparison with the UK than a unitary island state?



Germany
Land area 357,000 km2
Population 84 Million
Nearest country: Contiguous


New Zealand
Land area 268,000 km2
Population 4.8Million
Nearest Land mass 1,000 miles
Peak air passenger arrivals 24,000 per day in Januay

UK Land area 242,000 km2
Population 68 Million
Nearest country 20 miles
Heathrow daily average passengers 200,000 plus


----------



## pawl (17 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> When's the last time you noticed a Mc franchise closing down ?


 .


A few years ago McDonald’s closed down in a town in Hinckley Problem was it wasn’t in a particularly busy area but always seemed we’ll patronised


----------



## glasgowcyclist (17 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> Heathrow daily average passengers 200,000 plus



That looks to be the total figure for both arrIvals *and* departures.


----------



## PK99 (17 Aug 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> That looks to be the total figure for both arrIvals *and* departures.



ok lets put it differently:

https://www.gov.uk/performance/home-office-passenger-arrivals-at-border

Oct 2016 to Sep 2017 136m

= 372,000 arrivals at the UK border per day averaged over a year


----------



## matticus (17 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> New Zealand
> Land area 268,000 km2
> Population 4.8Million
> Nearest Land mass 1,000 miles
> ...


Even if you apply an error margin of 50% to these numbers, it should be clear that NZ is in a VERY different position to the UK.

Folks can make comparisons between the actions of the 2 leaders concerned, but I don't believe there are any stats to backup those comparisons.

[This is completely separate from any comparisons with Germany.]


----------



## glasgowcyclist (17 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> ok lets put it differently:
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/performance/home-office-passenger-arrivals-at-border
> 
> ...



So almost exactly the same rate of arrivals, proportionately, relative to the population: 0.55% for UK and 0.56% for NZ.


----------



## PK99 (17 Aug 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> So almost exactly the same rate of arrivals, proportionately, relative to the population: 0.55% for UK and 0.56% for NZ.



Congratulations, you are putting up a perfect example of Confirmation Bias - selecting data to support a predetermined view


----------



## glasgowcyclist (17 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> Congratulations, you are putting up a perfect example of Confirmation Bias - selecting data to support a predetermined view



Not really, it just struck me that the proportions were the same. You provided the data!


----------



## rualexander (17 Aug 2020)

Over a month now with no covid deaths in Scotland.


----------



## Salty seadog (17 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> When's the last time you noticed a Mc franchise closing down ?





pawl said:


> .
> 
> 
> A few years ago McDonald’s closed down in a town in Hinckley Problem was it wasn’t in a particularly busy area but always seemed we’ll patronised




The McDonalds in Dover Town centre closed a few years ago.

My Stellar career path started there in 1991 when I left school. It even took me to the start of my life at sea when they opened the world's first seagoing restaurant aboard a cross channel ferry.


----------



## Adam4868 (17 Aug 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> The McDonalds in Dover Town centre closed a few years ago.
> 
> My Stellar career path started there in 1991 when I left school. It even took me to the start of my life at sea when they opened the world's first seagoing restaurant aboard a cross channel ferry.


Worked on quite a few vomit voyages myself !


----------



## Milzy (17 Aug 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> The McDonalds in Dover Town centre closed a few years ago.
> 
> My Stellar career path started there in 1991 when I left school. It even took me to the start of my life at sea when they opened the world's first seagoing restaurant aboard a cross channel ferry.


The one in Wakefield city centre closed a few years back.


----------



## DCLane (17 Aug 2020)

As did the one in Dewsbury. Apparently the franchisee wasn't making enough money.


----------



## Milzy (17 Aug 2020)

DCLane said:


> As did the one in Dewsbury. Apparently the franchisee wasn't making enough money.


When I was a child and youth the Dewsbury and Wakefield ones were always very busy day & night. Out of town shopping and the opening of other McD's within the same vicinity won't have helped.


----------



## kingrollo (17 Aug 2020)

I'm waiting for the mc vaccine to be launched.....it would target one of the vulnerable groups !


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (17 Aug 2020)

There's a waiting list for franchises so whenever one gets in trouble, it's quickly snapped up. Only the worst cases shut down. I read in the Grocer years ago that nearly 10% of Burger Kings change hands each year.


----------



## newfhouse (17 Aug 2020)

Oh there's a surprise.
https://www.theguardian.com/society...o-run-agency-to-replace-public-health-england


----------



## Tanis8472 (17 Aug 2020)

farking cronyism


----------



## SpokeyDokey (17 Aug 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> farking cronyism



Needs stamping out - happens in Parties of all colours.

Tony's Cronies...


----------



## marinyork (17 Aug 2020)

Talking of arrivals, in the Australian state of Victoria, some very bold claims being made that 99% of cases are linked to quarantine hotels for returning travelers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-53806500

It all sounds a bit Paul Hunteresque.


----------



## Milzy (17 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Talking of arrivals, in the Australian state of Victoria, some very bold claims being made that 99% of cases are linked to quarantine hotels for returning travelers.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-53806500
> 
> It all sounds a bit Paul Hunteresque.


More blunders. Poor training advice. Same old Shoot different day.


----------



## marinyork (17 Aug 2020)

Milzy said:


> More blunders. Poor training advice. Same old Shoot different day.



That aspect of the story is completely uninteresting to me. The implication is that the virus can be got down to very low or zero levels merely by quarantining everyone who comes into the country. New Zealand seems to believe the same.


----------



## PK99 (17 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> That aspect of the story is completely uninteresting to me. The implication is that the virus can be got down to very low or zero levels merely by quarantining everyone who comes into the country. New Zealand seems to believe the same.



That is possible for New Zealand. They have effectively closed their "borders" and cut arrival numbers down to 200-300 per day down from 24,000 per day in January
https://www.customs.govt.nz/content...x-movements-between-1-jan-and-31-jul-2020.pdf


----------



## tom73 (17 Aug 2020)

newfhouse said:


> Oh there's a surprise.
> https://www.theguardian.com/society...o-run-agency-to-replace-public-health-england



This get’s worse she’s also chair of NHS Improvement the body who’s job is basically to smash the place up.
If the reports are true she’s just keeping the seat warm for her husband to take over. Why would any highly respected and qualified expert in public health within PHE. Stick around and take orders from nothing more than a glorified tea boy ?


----------



## randynewmanscat (18 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> New Zealand isn't a realistic comparison, Germany is.
> 
> One of the curious things with the UK is it's been reported on tv without a source several times the last couple of weeks that the UK has the lowest percentage of people at work in Europe at the moment. It's curious if this is true and if so why? If it's the case also in terms of virus rates.


I saw this and am also puzzled. I remember when the mostly tory supporting tabloid and broadsheet papers used to run pieces as regular as clockwork about how us brits are the laziest people in Europe. 
In the days before the Internet it was pretty easy to bullsh*t people as checking facts was not easy. One story that used to surface every year was how us backsliding and workshy brits had more public holidays than any other European country, total boll@x of course. 
I see some finger pointing on the social media regarding "furlough badgers" and other strange social division comments. The subtext of which says that a portion of Britain is happy to take the money but not work for it, now where have I heard that before. 
We need a source for that story do we not?


----------



## marinyork (18 Aug 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I saw this and am also puzzled. I remember when the mostly tory supporting tabloid and broadsheet papers used to run pieces as regular as clockwork about how us brits are the laziest people in Europe.
> In the days before the Internet it was pretty easy to bullsh*t people as checking facts was not easy. One story that used to surface every year was how us backsliding and workshy brits had more public holidays than any other European country, total boll@x of course.
> I see some finger pointing on the social media regarding "furlough badgers" and other
> We need a source for that story do we not?



The point of the post was that if there are all these brits still at home and not in workplaces that it's another aspect of all this. When Brits go back to work our already allegedly higher virus infection rates could level out at higher than it is now.


----------



## marinyork (18 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> That is possible for New Zealand. They have effectively closed their "borders" and cut arrival numbers down to 200-300 per day down from 24,000 per day in January
> https://www.customs.govt.nz/content...x-movements-between-1-jan-and-31-jul-2020.pdf



Um, yeah, it is the virus bits down to zero is the disputed bit, not the closing off. Paul Hunter said all that as I said in my post. It was precisely how much it'd have to come down in the UK for it to 'work'. Or if it ever would without big tech breakthroughs.

China, Australia and New Zealand have all done it. It's not quite worked. China had a big fall and closed off even before the others and had big outbreaks happen again. Australia has. 

The point of the story is some of the things new zealand, australia and china are politically motivated and these are paranoid countries like the UK that bang on about borders. New Zealand is always held up as a paragon but was trying to blame it on cargo containers , which is possible but there are more plausible explanations being ignored for purely political reasons. Australia made this very bold claim that all coronavirus except 1% was outside people coming in.


----------



## marinyork (18 Aug 2020)

On that vein it is reported Iceland tests all travellers on day 0 and day 5 of arrival now.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (18 Aug 2020)

Some interesting stat's in here via the download.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

One that doesn't seem to have been picked up on is that in England the total number of beds occupied on a weekly basis by Covid patients is now down to 599 (inc' 56 on mechanical ventilation) at w/e 9 Aug compared to a total number of beds occupied peak of 18970 at w/e 12 Apr with a mechanical ventilation peak of 2881 on the same date.

Doesn't seem to have been reported AFAIK.


----------



## tom73 (18 Aug 2020)

So it's been confirmed PHE is no more 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53813480
I watched what Dumb nut had to say and all I thought was pass the bucket. 
A few things not confirmed what happens to the rest of public health and PHE was the only part of the NHS directly under government 
control. Solely accountable to the secretary of state for health. So what now is Dido in the frame or hancock or Serco paymasters ?
We can't afford this to go wrong we won't have time to fix it before winter. The government is yet again gambling with people's lives.


----------



## marinyork (18 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Some interesting, stat's in here via the download.
> 
> https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
> 
> ...



It's interesting but coincidentally fits in with most other things.

The virus levels are reckoned to be 20-25 times rather than 30x lower than at it's peak infections in mid march, add on two to four weeks for those people to die  and it's about right.


----------



## PK99 (18 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Some interesting stat's in here via the download.
> 
> https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
> 
> ...



Perhaps not reported as it is good news. Only bad news and scare stories appear newsworthy.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (18 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> Perhaps not reported as it is good news. Only bad news and scare stories appear newsworthy.



Current (as near as dammit) NHS England bed usage stat's, total and Covid specific, from the same download

The first dataset are patients on Mechanical Ventilation as of 9 August with 56 out of 2223 being Covid patients.

The second dataset are all beds occupied as of 9 August with 599 out of 94890 being Covid patients (Mechanical Ventilation numbers are included within these figures).



*Beds occupied*​*Beds occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients*​*England* 2,223 56East of England 230 9London 607 12Midlands 282 6North East and Yorkshire 357 7North West 301 14South East 264 8South West 182 - Total beds*Beds occupied*​*Beds occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients*​*England* 94,840 599East of England 9,980 59London 15,010 107Midlands 16,328 89North East and Yorkshire 15,033 117North West 14,944 136South East 14,105 72South West 9,440 19


----------



## kingrollo (19 Aug 2020)

So Matt Hancock - wants regular testing for everyone - whether they have symptoms or not - unsurprisingly there is no deadline for this. I am not joking when I say I think a vaccine will be delivered faster than this scheme.

I don't actually think the vaccine is far away now.


----------



## PK99 (19 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So Matt Hancock - wants regular testing for everyone - whether they have symptoms or not - unsurprisingly there is no deadline for this. I am not joking when I say I think a vaccine will be delivered faster than this scheme.
> 
> I don't actually think the vaccine is far away now.



The problem with high testing and low infection rates is that false positives will mean that reported infection rates will exceed real infection rates and can never fall to zero.


----------



## mjr (19 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> This get’s worse she’s also chair of NHS Improvement the body who’s job is basically to smash the place up.
> If the reports are true she’s just keeping the seat warm for her husband to take over.


This isn't just cronyism... this is epic crony nepotism!


----------



## mjr (19 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Doesn't seem to have been reported AFAIK.


Except on the BBC current status updates live blog where I first saw it.

But that doesn't fit the "scare stories only" narrative of the poohpoohers.


----------



## Julia9054 (19 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> The problem with high testing and low infection rates is that false positives will mean that reported infection rates will exceed real infection rates and can never fall to zero.


The test has a high sensitivity and relatively lower specificity so more likely to have problems with false negatives than false positives


----------



## PK99 (19 Aug 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> The test has a high sensitivity and relatively lower specificity so more likely to have problems with false negatives than false positives



It is complex;

From a recent article:


_For example, take the current testing rates. Roughly 310,000 tests are being carried out each day at the moment and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests there is a current community infection rate of 0.05 per cent. 

That means that if testing was perfect, we should be picking up 155 positive cases a day and 309,854 negative cases. 

Yet with the current false negative rates, we would miss 20 per cent of the positive cases, picking up just 124. More alarmingly, we would pick up 310 false positives, giving a total of 434 reported cases, nearly three times the real positive figure.

It also means that the probability of an individual with a positive test actually being infected would be around 28.5 per cent.

The anomaly also means that even if there was no virus in the community at all, we would never fall below 310 cases a day if we were testing at current levels.

Prof Carl Henegehan, director of evidence-based medicine, Oxford University, said: “It does matter when your prevalence is very low. At this point if you have a positive test you are more likely not to be infected than to actually have the virus. Your chance of being infected is less than 30 per cent. _


----------



## midlife (19 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> It is complex;
> 
> From a recent article:
> 
> ...



But the 310000 tests carried out each day are mainly for people with symptoms or who have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive so it’s a skewed non-random sample. In this case the 0.05% community infection rate dies not apply ? Hence the circa 1000 positive results a day out of that 310000?


----------



## mjr (19 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> From a recent article:


In the Telegraph. It always makes me suspicious when people don't say where things are from. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/12/statistical-quirk-means-coronavirus-pandemic-may-never-officially/ 




> Prof Carl Henegehan, director of evidence-based medicine, Oxford University, said: “It does matter when your prevalence is very low. At this point if you have a positive test you are more likely not to be infected than to actually have the virus. Your chance of being infected is less than 30 per cent.


Remember him? He seems to be a Professor Trump, whose past hits include calling lockdown deadlier than coronavirus, claiming coronavirus peaked before lockdown and predicting zero covid deaths by the end of June 2020.


----------



## mjr (19 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> = 372,000 arrivals at the UK border per day averaged over a year





PK99 said:


> Congratulations, you are putting up a perfect example of Confirmation Bias - selecting data to support a predetermined view


So, in order to avoid confirmation bias by only citing certain data when assessing UK-DE comparisons, how many arrivals are there at the German border per day?



matticus said:


> Even if you apply an error margin of 50% to these numbers, it should be clear that NZ is in a VERY different position to the UK.
> 
> Folks can make comparisons between the actions of the 2 leaders concerned, but I don't believe there are any stats to backup those comparisons.


There is one simple stat which does back it up: NZ has exactly the same length of land borders with other countries as GB: zero. If UK's political leaders had decided to impose quarantine at the GB border, it could have, but they chose the profits of airport shareholders over health.



> [This is completely separate from any comparisons with Germany.]


Indeed. Neither of them really stack up exactly once you look at the detail, which was the point I was making.


----------



## mjr (19 Aug 2020)

It seems even Australia isn't quite authoritarian enough for the idea of forced medical treatment to fly:

"Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison has backtracked on comments he made saying that he planned to make coronavirus vaccinations as mandatory as possible." — https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/vaccine-should-be-as-mandatory-as-possible-australian-pm-says.html


----------



## srw (19 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> Remember him? He seems to be a Professor Trump, whose past hits include calling lockdown deadlier than coronavirus, claiming coronavirus peaked before lockdown and predicting zero covid deaths by the end of June 2020.


Without checking the sums in detail, what he's saying is very plausible. MD in Private Eye (who is very sensible) is saying much the same thing - if you want to know precisely who has the disease then testing loads of people at random with even a pretty good test when the incidence rate is very low isn't all that helpful.

On the other hand the ONS (who are a shining light of independence - long may they continue) don't want to know precisely who has the disease. They want to do statistics, and want to know how many people have the disease. It makes a lot of sense for them to ramp up their testing because a larger sample size will give them better data, nationally and regionally.

If Hancock had been a little bit smarter he would have used that as his line - "The infection rate is so low that we need to test a shitload more people to work out quite how small it is."


----------



## mjr (20 Aug 2020)

Please let that be the peak of the second wave just gone...

Then we can get ready for the third wave"


----------



## srw (20 Aug 2020)

That stat is a bit suspect. Any specific campaign of testing in response to particular hotspots will show up as a rise. The ONS stat is more robust, and is pretty much static.


----------



## mjr (20 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> That stat is a bit suspect. Any specific campaign of testing in response to particular hotspots will show up as a rise. The ONS stat is more robust, and is pretty much static.


ONS only have one stat?


----------



## PK99 (20 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> View attachment 542586
> 
> Please let that be the peak of the second wave just gone...
> 
> Then we can get ready for the third wave"



Anyone have a combined graph of numbers of tests and confirmed cases with time?


----------



## srw (20 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> ONS only have one stat?


For infection rate


----------



## mjr (20 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> Anyone have a combined graph of numbers of tests and confirmed cases with time?


It's probably just after the number arriving at Germany's border each day.


----------



## marinyork (20 Aug 2020)

Singing study findings

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53853961

When peer reviewed it's possible it'll have an effect on policy and live performances


----------



## Julia9054 (20 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Singing study findings
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53853961
> 
> When peer reviewed it's possible it'll have an effect on policy and live performances


One picture caption “the impact of playing instruments was also tested” and no information about the results from that.


----------



## Rusty Nails (20 Aug 2020)

These 


marinyork said:


> Singing study findings
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53853961
> 
> When peer reviewed it's possible it'll have an effect on policy and live performances


While this is quite interesting its overall impact on the spread of the virus is likely to be infinitessimally small (in my non-expert, not based on research, opinion), and probably much less so than mask wearing, and definitely less so than the breakdown of social distancing in many areas of life and possible complacency over proper hand-washing. It seems that loudness of voice is as important as the singing aspect so perhaps there needs to be guidance on speech volumes in social, school or work situations.


----------



## marinyork (20 Aug 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> These
> 
> While this is quite interesting its overall impact on the spread of the virus is likely to be infinitessimally small (in my non-expert, not based on research, opinion), and probably much less so than mask wearing, and definitely less so than the breakdown of social distancing in many areas of life and possible complacency over proper hand-washing. It seems that loudness of voice is as important as the singing aspect so perhaps there needs to be guidance on speech volumes in social, school or work situations.



One of the mass spreading events from a choir is famous and oft cited.

The world isn't all pubs, jolly holidays and schools like Boris thinks. There have been extensive restrictions on live performances on anything singing related. At my mum's church no singing is allowed at all even if it were a choir of one, with a ten year old 10 metres from everyone else and is certified to have rsz, rhinovirus and loads of viral blocking. Similarly performers have talked a bit about this.


----------



## srw (20 Aug 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> While this is quite interesting its overall impact on the spread of the virus is likely to be infinitessimally small


But it's really important for the very large number of people for whom live music is an essential part of life.


----------



## Julia9054 (20 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> But it's really important for the very large number of people for whom live music is an essential part of life.


I miss band 😢


----------



## Rusty Nails (20 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> But it's really important for the very large number of people for whom live music is an essential part of life.



It depends on the size of the venue. A band/singer in a small club will present a greater potential danger than a band playing in a football stadium where it's easier to have a large space between band and crowd.

In both types of venue it is possible the danger from the band will be far less than the social distancing risks from other fans.

Possibly the problem could be minimised if it became mandatory for performers to have Covid tests before allowing the show to go ahead.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (21 Aug 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> It depends on the size of the venue. A band/singer in a small club will present a greater potential danger than a band playing in a football stadium where it's easier to have a large space between band and crowd.
> 
> In both types of venue it is possible the danger from the band will be far less than the social distancing risks from other fans.
> 
> Possibly the problem could be minimised if it became mandatory for performers to have Covid tests before allowing the show to go ahead.



Testing performers seems pretty pointless compared to the numbers in the audience that might have the virus. Say you've got 297 punters at a gig and 3 performers, and statistically at any one time 1% of the population is infected with the virus. Theoretically, 3 people in that venue will have the virus, but there's only a 1% chance of it being only the performers having the virus, but a 99% chance of someone in the audience having it. If you want to test people at gigs, you need to test the audience.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> But it's really important for the very large number of people for whom live music is an essential part of life.


Softly does it. https://www.theguardian.com/music/2...-play-softly-to-reduce-covid-risk-study-shows


----------



## SpokeyDokey (21 Aug 2020)

Rebound green shoots albeit early days;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53859148


----------



## Julia9054 (21 Aug 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Softly does it. https://www.theguardian.com/music/2...-play-softly-to-reduce-covid-risk-study-shows


Hmmm . . . softly and brass bands is an interesting concept


----------



## matticus (21 Aug 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> *It seems that loudness of voice is as important *as the singing aspect so perhaps there needs to be guidance on speech volumes in social, school or work situations.


Would you be so kind as to print off a copy for my neighbour? Much appreciated x


----------



## marinyork (21 Aug 2020)

Interesting suggestion from independent SAGE on testing university students. So much of this epidemic has been the tories addressing and stoking the fears of primary school teachers and parents. It's rare anything else is talked about.

https://www.theguardian.com/educati...y-for-university-students-say-scientists-sage


----------



## DCLane (21 Aug 2020)

@marinyork - given all of my teaching until January is online-only I'm not sure who the students will be mixing with?

First year students at my institution are having some face-to-face teaching I believe, but that's all.


----------



## marinyork (21 Aug 2020)

DCLane said:


> @marinyork - given all of my teaching until January is online-only I'm not sure who the students will be mixing with?
> 
> First year students at my institution are having some face-to-face teaching I believe, but that's all.



With each other and the lecturers and other staff of varying flavours. Plenty of universities are planning a mix of face-to-face and on-line. It varies between unis and you and fossyant appear to be at the bunker mentality end of the spectrum, the university I'm at has opened some buildings up already. I know because I went past last week and had to do a double take and it's August so would normally be quiet. A special dispensation has been given to have hugely extended hours to get everything in, as there was always a pressure on available rooms before all of this anyway. I think that will only get implemented quite partially, it won't be normal to be having lectures till 8pm. 

I'm not so much interested in the other independent SAGE suggestions other than the testing. The independent sage other suggestions were banged in there because there are apparently plenty of other unis not implementing those suggestions in full.


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## SpokeyDokey (21 Aug 2020)

7 day UK wide deaths average down to 8/day:


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## Ming the Merciless (21 Aug 2020)

Well I ended up in A&E last night. I went through Covid-19 triage before being taken into the waiting area. I was really surprised I wasn’t tested. Especially as they took my blood for other tests. Triage still seems to be symptom based, and doesn’t acknowledge asymptomatic from what I saw.


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## midlife (21 Aug 2020)

Unless you are being admitted or symptomatic you won’t be tested. Takes too long and being in A&E there should be a need for urgent treatment. There will have been “universal precautions” in place with staff treating you in level 2 PPE and the full level PPE with respirators if they generated an aerosol. Hope all was well and you are better .


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## srw (21 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> 7 day UK wide deaths average down to 8/day:
> 
> View attachment 542898



Listen to a recent More or Less on BBC sounds. The official data on deaths isn't reliable. The clue is in the footnote - it's only people with confirmed test results.


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## SpokeyDokey (21 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> Listen to a recent More or Less on BBC sounds. The official data on deaths isn't reliable. The clue is in the footnote - it's only people with confirmed test results.



Massive improvement from where we were and virtually negligible amount of people in the grand scheme of things.


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## srw (21 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Massive improvement from where we were and virtually negligible amount of people in the grand scheme of things.


...until you add on the dozens of people who die per day of Covid, recorded on the death certificate but without the formal test. And the dozens more who die of Covid without the record on the death cert. 

Mortality is still basically at normal. Even though all other contagious diseases, which are normally quietly and insidiously killing dozens a day without anyone noticing, have been squished by the anti-Covid measures.


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## SkipdiverJohn (22 Aug 2020)

People die of stuff, that's the way of the world. Get used to it, it's been happening since life appeared on the planet. The current UK death rates are negligible. Even in the US, with a much higher infection rate, the deaths are proportionately not that high in relation to the number of virus cases. It's the same in most of the world. In the early days of the pandemic, the virus took out a lot of already very sick people quickly. The low hanging fruit in mortality terms. Once that cohort was decimated, the remaining population are more resistant to the virus, and the death rate has not tracked the infection rate but remained substantially lower. If we had a full-blown second wave in the UK, and daily infections equalled those in March/April, the death rate would not go up by anything like the increase in cases.


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## SpokeyDokey (22 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> ...until you add on the dozens of people who die per day of Covid, recorded on the death certificate but without the formal test. And the dozens more who die of Covid without the record on the death cert.
> 
> Mortality is still basically at normal. Even though all other contagious diseases, which are normally quietly and insidiously killing dozens a day without anyone noticing, have been squished by the anti-Covid measures.



Where are you getting the figures of dozens more dying each day from?

Or are you basing that on your assumption in your last paragraph?

From what I can see from the available data is that death rates are very low with Scotland & Wales virtually at zero and England not far behind. In England only 600 beds are now occupied by Covid patients and only 60 are on mechanical ventilation. Sounds like much better News to me and well done to all involved for the massive improvement in the Covid mortality rate.

Still work to be done of course and it hasn't yet gone away but the UK is in a far better place (apart from economically) than it was at the Covid peak.


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## srw (22 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> are you getting the figures of dozens more dying each day from?


"Dozens" was a little hyperbolic. It's still over 20 per day on average with Covid on the death certificate. And unknown more without. 

"The number of deaths involving COVID-19 registered in England and Wales in the week ending 7 August 2020 (Week 32) was 152 (1.7% of all deaths in that week)."

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26


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## SpokeyDokey (22 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> "Dozens" was a little hyperbolic. It's still over 20 per day on average with Covid on the death certificate. And unknown more without.
> 
> "The number of deaths involving COVID-19 registered in England and Wales in the week ending 7 August 2020 (Week 32) was 152 (1.7% of all deaths in that week)."
> 
> https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26



Thumbs up for the hyperbole admission. 

The original post by me was England only and up to the 19 August so 12 days later than the data that you are quoting.

End of the day srw whether it is 8 per day in England, or not very many more across the whole of the UK, it is an utterly negligible rate in the grand scheme of things and, imo, amounts to very good News considering where we were not too long ago. Set against a back-drop of de-restrictions over the last couple of months I think it is quite uplifting News in terms of us controlling the virus whilst slowly getting the country back up to speed.


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## srw (22 Aug 2020)

I can't celebrate the persistence of a nasty disease in the middle of the summer holidays with loads of restrictions still in place. It's likely to be a lull - look at the rest of Europe for what could we'll start happening here in September when schools return and offices start reopening, and it becomes too wet and cold to queue outside shops.


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## Slick (22 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> I can't celebrate the persistence of a nasty disease in the middle of the summer holidays with loads of restrictions still in place. It's likely to be a lull - look at the rest of Europe for what could we'll start happening here in September when schools return and offices start reopening, and it becomes too wet and cold to queue outside shops.


It's already happening up here with the schools with an outbreak on day 1.


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## marinyork (22 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> End of the day srw whether it is 8 per day in England, or not very many more across the whole of the UK, it is an utterly negligible rate in the grand scheme of things and, imo, amounts to very good News considering where we were not too long ago. Set against a back-drop of de-restrictions over the last couple of months I think it is quite uplifting News in terms of us controlling the virus whilst slowly getting the country back up to speed.



There is a bit in what skipdriverjohn says. The UK reportedly has the lowest number of people physically at work away from home and Spain has a high number of cases with it supposedly belting around the under 30s without getting back in the nursing homes and so far low death rates, but for how long?

Contrary to what ^^ says secondary schools and unis are believed to be a much higher risk than primary schools and it may be the case as the whitty has speculated that rhinovirus and rsz give viral blocking until it picks up significantly in late October. Unfortunately they seem to have decided flu and coronavirus at the same time are possible and nasty.


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## fossyant (22 Aug 2020)

DCLane said:


> @marinyork - given all of my teaching until January is online-only I'm not sure who the students will be mixing with?
> 
> First year students at my institution are having some face-to-face teaching I believe, but that's all.



We are doing 3 to 4 hours per student per week face to face teaching. 2m social distancing and block teaching for massively reduced class sizes.


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## midlife (22 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> People die of stuff, that's the way of the world. Get used to it, it's been happening since life appeared on the planet. The current UK death rates are negligible. Even in the US, with a much higher infection rate, the deaths are proportionately not that high in relation to the number of virus cases. It's the same in most of the world. In the early days of the pandemic, the virus took out a lot of already very sick people quickly. The low hanging fruit in mortality terms. Once that cohort was decimated, the remaining population are more resistant to the virus, and the death rate has not tracked the infection rate but remained substantially lower. If we had a full-blown second wave in the UK, and daily infections equalled those in March/April, the death rate would not go up by anything like the increase in cases.



I think there are about 8 million people over 70 in the UK, likely quite a few will have co-morbidities so still plenty of "low hanging fruit" if the virus rampage through the community again....


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## marinyork (22 Aug 2020)

midlife said:


> I think there are about 8 million people over 70 in the UK, likely quite a few will have co-morbidities so still plenty of "low hanging fruit" if the virus rampage through the community again....



Various sources have said 10 million+. It's one of the real challenges for the vaccines. Getting it in the arms of so many people as fast as possible once it's licenced. Beyond the ten million there will still be a small number of those outside with horrid stays in hospital and big life changing symptoms and deaths.

The reality is that in the over 70s some vaccines that may work well in the general population may only give frustrating levels of protection e.g. 50%. That's still a miracle breakthrough.


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## midlife (22 Aug 2020)

For HepB vaccine where I am meant to keep up to date in my job, the older you get the less the response. By "older" for HepB that starts at 30


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## SkipdiverJohn (22 Aug 2020)

I'm not convinced there's much probability of a return to high mortality rates, in the developed world at least. The true rate of UK infection must have been dozens of times higher than the official figures by the time the lockdown started. which means that millions had already contracted the virus by that stage. Because awareness of the virus was lower, even high risk individuals may not have taken much in the way of precautions to avoid it. Now, those who know the virus could hit them hard, are tending to be more cautious about mingling with everyone else. The rest of us, are mostly fed up with the lockdown and being told to limit social contact, so it has really gone out of the window for the majority of the population. I socialise several times a week in close proximity to other people, and I work in close proximity to others (albeit usually the same group), and apart from observing the normal polite behaviours like not sneezing and coughing over others it's back to normal as far as I'm concerned, virus or no virus. No-one I associate with has gone down with a nasty dose of anything recently, if they have caught it the symptoms must have been non-existent, because no-one has been knocked out and been unable to go to work or carry out their normal routine.


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## classic33 (22 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I'm not convinced there's much probability of a return to high mortality rates, in the developed world at least. The true rate of UK infection must have been dozens of times higher than the official figures by the time the lockdown started. which means that millions had already contracted the virus by that stage. Because awareness of the virus was lower, even high risk individuals may not have taken much in the way of precautions to avoid it. Now, those who know the virus could hit them hard, are tending to be more cautious about mingling with everyone else. The rest of us, are mostly fed up with the lockdown and being told to limit social contact, so it has really gone out of the window for the majority of the population. I socialise several times a week in close proximity to other people, and I work in close proximity to others (albeit usually the same group), and apart from observing the normal polite behaviours like not sneezing and coughing over others it's back to normal as far as I'm concerned, virus or no virus. No-one I associate with has gone down with a nasty dose of anything recently, if they have caught it the symptoms must have been non-existent,* because no-one has been knocked out and been unable to go to work *or carry out their normal routine.


The threat of losing your job if you can't work may be pushing people to work with it.

After all, if *you *were an employer would you pay someone to stay at home whilst having to pay a second person to do their job. Or would you simply employ someone else, having let the first person go?

After all, what training is required for shelf stacking or simple warehouse work? Anyone can do either with none.


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## SkipdiverJohn (22 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> After all, if *you *were an employer would you pay someone to stay at home whilst having to pay a second person to do their job. Or would you simply employ someone else, having let the first person go?



That would rather depend on how useful the person was, what their attitude to the job was, whether they were reliable and could be left to get on with it without having to be supervised etc. Even setting aside skill levels, someone that you know can be relied on is worth more than some unknown quantity who might be useless. The people I work with, you could not just get instant replacements for off the street, some have 40+ years experience. There's a ticking skills timebomb and the really experienced staff are like gold dust, they are what keeps the operation running. If you go off sick with the virus, you still get paid no arguments.


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## classic33 (22 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> That would rather depend on how useful the person was, what their attitude to the job was, whether they were reliable and could be left to get on with it without having to be supervised etc. Even setting aside skill levels, someone that you know can be relied on is worth more than some unknown quantity who might be useless. The people I work with, you could not just get instant replacements for off the street, some have 40+ years experience. There's a ticking skills timebomb and the really experienced staff are like gold dust, they are what keeps the operation running. If you go off sick with the virus, you still get paid no arguments.


And doesn't answer the question either.


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## silva (23 Aug 2020)

Since a week or so, I saw here and there a new word popping up: "twindemic".
One of the original articles referenced is this one: https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/twindemic
It is about influenza ("common flu") and corona family types virii simultaneously popping up, as in two pandemics, hence "twindemic".

Now I don't get a couple things:

1) why would they now be scared for an influenza spreading? If influenza would be able to spread under the current block conditions forced by government, then corona would smash through these alike a tank.
So, IF there would indeed come an (additional) influenza/flu epidemy, doesn't that prove those corona blocking measures as having made little to no difference on spreading of corona, upto plain ridiculous?
In detail: unless there is already total herd immunity for corona, then the R (reproduction factor) for all corona infected groups/clusters should be higher than for influenza (again - unless corona has finished). So every blocking measure that makes it harder for corona, should totally block influenza spreading.
So if influenza would still be able to propagate, then corona should propagate alike an express train, and the measures against corona would prove themselves as ridiculous and useless (what of course is well possible)

2) corona is a single stranded positive sense (= polarity of coding/decoding) RNA type virus, influenza is negative sense. That means that they cannot use eachothers production machineries so combining impossible or at least very hard (= if any, slower reproduction due to the extra coding required)

So how can they fear a "twindemic"?


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## srw (23 Aug 2020)

silva said:


> So how can they fear a "twindemic"?


This is an incredibly naive and dangerous set of views to be propounding. Your arguments are pretty incoherent, but insofar as I can make sense of them you seem to be saying that because scientists are concerned about both flu and coronavirus spreading (separately - your point (2) is a complete nonsense) the protection against coronavirus is a waste of time.

Johnson is encouraging children back to school, and office workers back to work. Sunak is withdrawing all the financial support for workers and firms, which will mean a load more people being forced together by economic necessity. And idiots are encouraging a slackening of protection against the transmission of a vicious and highly infectious disease. If we don't end up with a flu outbreak hitting large numbers of already vulnerable people we'll be lucky.


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## Ming the Merciless (23 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> After all, if *you *were an employer would you pay someone to stay at home whilst having to pay a second person to do their job. Or would you simply employ someone else, having let the first person go?



Yes, that’s exactly what happens with maternity leave, and the same protections should exist here.


As @SkipdiverJohn said, some employees you really would not be able to replace them and expect the same profit outcomes for your company. They might not be able to come in, but they are still there on a phone with decades of experience knowledge and practical application within that company’s culture and structure .


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## classic33 (23 Aug 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Yes, that’s exactly what happens with maternity leave, and the same protections should exist here.
> 
> 
> As @SkipdiverJohn said, some employees you really would not be able to replace them and expect the same profit outcomes for your company. They might not be able to come in, but they are still there on a phone with decades of experience knowledge and practical application within that company’s culture and structure .


But the possibility(threat) that you might lose your job, because you've to go into short term isolation, having caught something may be causing people to work with it. Which is why jobs at the lower end of the scale were chosen for the question.

Pregnancy isn't something that can be caught or transmitted at work.


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## Ming the Merciless (23 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> But the possibility(threat) that you might lose your job, because you've to go into short term isolation, having caught something may be causing people to work with it. Which is why jobs at the lower end of the scale were chosen for the question.
> 
> Pregnancy isn't something that can be caught or transmitted at work.



Believe me plenty of conceptions happen at work


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## vickster (23 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> Pregnancy isn't something that can be caught or transmitted at work.


Well not without a bit of effort and not if social distancing is enforced


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## Adam4868 (23 Aug 2020)

How many employers forced their staff to work.Maybe it would of been better to pay the individual rather than the firm/company.Its easier to blame the workers though,sounds better than the company commiting fraud.


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## silva (23 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> I can't celebrate the persistence of a nasty disease in the middle of the summer holidays with loads of restrictions still in place. It's likely to be a lull - look at the rest of Europe for what could we'll start happening here in September when schools return and offices start reopening, and it becomes too wet and cold to queue outside shops.


Apparently that last is being taken into account in recent week.
Last monday in an Aldi supermarket, technicians were installing a kinda panels at the side of the entrance.
I asked if those were sensors and if the system could count customers. Answer was yes.
Today I visited another Aldi supermarket (closed but accessible entrance), I saw the same sensor panels there, and they weren't there friday so they must have been installed inbetween.
Also, a new information billboard there, and a red and green light, red = no entrance due to government forced customer / m2 limit. Another note on the information billboard: it's recommended to use shopping carts. And that last is new, until now it was mandatory - you had to take one in order to get in.
So it all looks like september will be the end (at least for Aldi, don't know about others) of the mandatory shopping carts. A big plus for me since the hassle they cause doubled to tripled my average time there.


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## deptfordmarmoset (23 Aug 2020)

silva said:


> Apparently that last is being taken into account in recent week.
> Last monday in an Aldi supermarket, technicians were installing a kinda panels at the side of the entrance.
> I asked if those were sensors and if the system could count customers. Answer was yes.
> Today I visited another Aldi supermarket (closed but accessible entrance), I saw the same sensor panels there, and they weren't there friday so they must have been installed inbetween.
> ...


Mandatory shopping carts have never been in operation here (South London).

Meanwhile, I got phoned up by the ONS about their big infection survey this afternoon. Swabs appointment on Wednesday.


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## silva (23 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> This is an incredibly naive and dangerous set of views to be propounding. Your arguments are pretty incoherent, but insofar as I can make sense of them you seem to be saying that because scientists are concerned about both flu and coronavirus spreading (separately - your point (2) is a complete nonsense) the protection against coronavirus is a waste of time.
> 
> Johnson is encouraging children back to school, and office workers back to work. Sunak is withdrawing all the financial support for workers and firms, which will mean a load more people being forced together by economic necessity. And idiots are encouraging a slackening of protection against the transmission of a vicious and highly infectious disease. If we don't end up with a flu outbreak hitting large numbers of already vulnerable people we'll be lucky.


Do you agree that governments force a variety of "measures" to block spreading of corona?
If you don't, then I recommend to read news from the last X months, and/or to take a look inside cities.

If yes, do you further agree then if those measures succeed in blocking spreading of corona, shouldn't they also succeed in blocking spreading of influenza? And do that even better, due to influenza being called less dangerous and not been "lockdowned" like corona now, difference being caused by influenza immunity bigger than corona immunity, so IF there would be an influenza epidemy, then that would imply that the measures so called against corona didn't work against influenza, let alone against corona, in other words: unneeded/useless.

And third: that "protection" you talk about, has its own cost, an element that you seem to ignore.
To illustrate its major importance: imagine giving blocking corona top priority over everything.
Fine, everybody, to the last man and woman in the world, in quarantine, all companies cease production, economy basically looking like after a neutron bomb has been dropped, then corona virus spreading will surely be stopped. 
The gain: nobody will die from corona.
The cost: everybody died from starvation.
Get it?


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## classic33 (23 Aug 2020)

silva said:


> Do you agree that governments force a variety of "measures" to block spreading of corona?
> If you don't, then I recommend to read news from the last X months, and/or to take a look inside cities.
> 
> If yes, do you further agree then if those measures succeed in blocking spreading of corona, shouldn't they also succeed in blocking spreading of influenza? And do that even better, due to influenza being called less dangerous and not been "lockdowned" like corona now, difference being caused by influenza immunity bigger than corona immunity, so IF there would be an influenza epidemy, then that would imply that the measures so called against corona didn't work against influenza, let alone against corona, in other words: unneeded/useless.
> ...


Last part first, I don't want it!!
That includes flu, by whatever prefix you use.

2001, I'm in an area where the only means of transport in the area was in a motor vehicle. Short distances on foot allowed, but I'd to stick to the highway. Lockdown at times that make this time seem like nothing. Large areas that couldn't be used. They came down heavy on you if you broke the rules, unlike now. Last confirmed death from foot and mouth, in the UK, was in 1966.

With flu, there's already a yearly injection/jab. This time, C-19/CV-19/Coronavirus, there isn't. It's an unknown, just like 100 years ago, only science has moved on. Not all for the better in my own opinion, but they can give you treatment that would have saved many 100 years ago. We, as individuals, however have become complacent over the years. Simple hygiene measures not followed. "It'll never happen to me" is commonplace. 

If folk are made to remain apart, social distancing, to try and avoid the spread of one, would you not expect to see a drop in the other, similar virus related illness.

From advice on dealing with flu
_"Cover your nose and mouth with your arm (not hands) while coughing or sneezing; wash your hands frequently to avoid the spread of germs.

Use paper tissues that you can toss after use instead of cloth handkerchiefs to avoid giving the virus to others."_

Seems like good advice to me, and I've never had flu. Bad colds, but never flu.

It was expected to be over and done with in no time. This being the 21st century and all that, but the human body, for all its strengths has many weaknesses. Had the long term view been taken at the start, and implemented, then you may well have seen more people planning ahead. We live in a "Me Society" which doesn't allow too much of thinking about others. Maybe now we're paying the price for that, we can't adapt to meet the current situation.

Maybe it's time to stop thinking of this situation only affecting others, who are preventing you from doing what you want.


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## MntnMan62 (24 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I'm not convinced there's much probability of a return to high mortality rates, in the developed world at least. The true rate of UK infection must have been dozens of times higher than the official figures by the time the lockdown started. which means that millions had already contracted the virus by that stage. Because awareness of the virus was lower, even high risk individuals may not have taken much in the way of precautions to avoid it. Now, those who know the virus could hit them hard, are tending to be more cautious about mingling with everyone else. The rest of us, are mostly fed up with the lockdown and being told to limit social contact, so it has really gone out of the window for the majority of the population. I socialise several times a week in close proximity to other people, and I work in close proximity to others (albeit usually the same group), and apart from observing the normal polite behaviours like not sneezing and coughing over others it's back to normal as far as I'm concerned, virus or no virus. No-one I associate with has gone down with a nasty dose of anything recently, if they have caught it the symptoms must have been non-existent, because no-one has been knocked out and been unable to go to work or carry out their normal routine.



You keep talking about how people die every day. And while that may be true, the only two other things that kill more people on an annualized basis in the US are heart disease and cancer. 730,000 a year die from heart disease and 580,000 die of cancer. The rate of deaths from covid-19 in the US is running at about 400,000 per year, making it the third largest killer in the country. We put tons of money towards trying to prevent heart disease and find a cure for cancer. But when you talk about lots of people dying and that we should just get used to it, that just ignores the fact that we live in a modern advanced society with arguably the wealthiest economy on the planet. So, it would appear you are trivializing the deaths of 400,000 per year from covid. And by trivializing the covid deaths you are also trivializing those who die from cancer or heart disease. In addition, you are ignoring the number of people who end up with permanent and significant issues such as respiratory problems, heart problems, neurological problems. Those numbers haven't been quantified but they should because I'd bet they dward the death rate. Sorry, but I'll never agree that money comes before the lives of that many people. You are obviously ok with putting money before people's lives. You've made that clear because you've been saying it for quite some time now. But it doesn't make it right.


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## DaveReading (24 Aug 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> The rate of deaths from covid-19 in the US is running at about 400,000 per year, making it the third largest killer in the country.



Yes, most of us can do maths/math.

But prorating deaths over the 5 months or so that the pandemic has been raging in the US, in order to produce an annual figure, is meaningless at this point in time.


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## Illaveago (24 Aug 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> How many employers forced their staff to work.Maybe it would of been better to pay the individual rather than the firm/company.Its easier to blame the workers though,sounds better than the company commiting fraud.


I have heard of a company which forced it's workers to continue working whilst claiming the benefits.


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## vickster (24 Aug 2020)

Illaveago said:


> I have heard of a company which forced it's workers to continue working whilst claiming the benefits.


And I hope they have been shopped to HMRC
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/contact/report-fraud-to-hmrc


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## Illaveago (24 Aug 2020)

vickster said:


> And I hope they have been shopped to HMRC
> https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/contact/report-fraud-to-hmrc


Yes . I would hope so . But unless the Inland Revenue operate a witness protection scheme whereby the whistleblower is protected from any reprisals in the form of job ,home loss , being black listed by other employers who is going to risk it ? Especially when the punishment would be a tap on the wrist !
The punishment should be that if the whistleblower was threatened in any way that they be supported for the rest of their lives by the criminal .
I don't know the name of the company , I've been kept in the dark otherwise I would have shopped them .


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## vickster (24 Aug 2020)

Illaveago said:


> Yes . I would hope so . But unless the Inland Revenue operate a witness protection scheme whereby the whistleblower is protected from any reprisals in the form of job ,home loss , being black listed by other employers who is going to risk it ? Especially when the punishment would be a tap on the wrist !
> The punishment should be that if the whistleblower was threatened in any way that they be supported for the rest of their lives by the criminal .
> I don't know the name of the company , I've been kept in the dark otherwise I would have shopped them .


The link states...
You do not have to give your personal details, and any information will be treated as confidential.
HMRC would presumably interview all employees


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## MntnMan62 (24 Aug 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Yes, most of us can do maths/math.
> 
> But prorating deaths over the 5 months or so that the pandemic has been raging in the US, in order to produce an annual figure, is meaningless at this point in time.



Why is it meaningless? On August 13, the US saw it's largest single day death toll at 1,499 with a 17 day running average per day of 1,000. I realize that the number of deaths will fluctuate for various reasons. And I'm glad you can do the simple math. There are many who can't. And I have no problem doing it for them.


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## kingrollo (24 Aug 2020)

Illaveago said:


> I have heard of a company which forced it's workers to continue working whilst claiming the benefits.


I know a fair few "white van men" who have claimed furlough but taken jobs on the side.
I would imagine it's pretty widespread. I've had a few jobs done around the house - not one tradesman has replied saying "sorry on furlough until September"


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## vickster (24 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I know a fair few "white van men" who have claimed furlough but taken jobs on the side.
> I would imagine it's pretty widespread. I've had a few jobs done around the house - not one tradesman has replied saying "sorry on furlough until September"


If you know them, and that they have definitely claimed the grants illegitimately, report them... I'm sure HMRC would love to take a detailed look at their last 7 years of tax returns


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## Beebo (24 Aug 2020)

There is nothing to stop you working For another company whilst on furlough. 
you just can’t work for the company paying the furlough. 
it’s one of the loop holes which can be abused.


----------



## johnblack (24 Aug 2020)

Beebo said:


> There is nothing to stop you working For another company whilst on furlough.
> you just can’t work for the company paying the furlough.
> it’s one of the loop holes which can be abused.


It's not a loop hole or an abuse, if someone takes on a second job, it's just that, plenty of people have more than one job.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Aug 2020)

> Man who believed virus was hoax loses wife to Covid-19



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53892856

Sad story, but what I was struck by is -



> By Marianna Spring Specialist disinformation reporter, BBC News



Umm.


----------



## classic33 (24 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53892856
> 
> Sad story, but what I was struck by is -
> 
> ...


Position seems real enough within the BBC
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-52454129


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (24 Aug 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Why is it meaningless? On August 13, the US saw it's largest single day death toll at 1,499 with a 17 day running average per day of 1,000. I realize that the number of deaths will fluctuate for various reasons. And I'm glad you can do the simple math. There are many who can't. And I have no problem doing it for them.



You have a particular axe to grind about Trump, because you dislike him, so you are seeking to extrapolate the numbers to give the worst possible outcome.
Unfortunately for you the infections have since peaked and the daily numbers have fallen very substantially, especially in the recent hotspot states. The death rate has also stayed way lower than earlier in the outbreak, and there is no way the numbers are going to come anywhere near the 400,000 figure you're touting. I would be surprised if they exceeded 250,000 over a whole year, which would not be that terrible compared on a population size basis.


----------



## Tanis8472 (24 Aug 2020)

Projections are at 309,000 well in excess of 250,000


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## marinyork (24 Aug 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> You also have a particular axe to grind because you like him so much. But you may not realize how much like him you are. My point, is you both like to say things that are not true. The infections have not peaked here. The entire middle of the country is seeing escalating numbers of infections. Any decline overall is very small. The states experiencing increases are the Dakotas, Wyoming, Maine, Rhode Island, Kansas, Arkansas, Iowa and Mississippi, among others. And what we've seen in the past several months is that in areas where the rates of infections declines, people become complacent and think they can go back to normal life. Thats when we see the parties and large gatherings of people. And then we see the spikes. It's happened repeatedly. And after almost 6 months of the pandemic, tallying the totals and extrapolating an annual outcome actually becomes MORE accurate as time goes by, rather than less. If you studied statistics you might understand this concept. The US is now over 180,000 deaths. And you think we will only see an additional 70,000 deaths over the next 6 months? I wish what you were saying were true but the reality is the numbers don't support your "prediction". In fact, you've provided literally nothing to support your number. 400,000 isn't worst case. Worst case would be if we saw bigger spikes that would result in more deaths which could put the number closer to 500,000. But you go right ahead and make baseless claims using no statistics whatsoever. Donald and John. You two go together well.
> 
> https://www.npr.org/sections/health...king-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s



Very few people in the UK like Trump, it's just we don't use the very colourful and aggressive language you do. You behave exactly like Trump.

There are four months of 2012 left, an additional 70,000 deaths might not be too far out because...

Did it not occur to you that skipdriverjohn had bothered to read sources from three weeks ago that predicted 230,000 deaths by November? Add on a bit and not far from 250,000. The issue around that is November and December could be nasty months.

It's you that needs the work on the faulty thinking and reading around. Not anyone else.


----------



## MntnMan62 (24 Aug 2020)

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/revved-sturgis-rally-covid-19-213046950.html


----------



## classic33 (24 Aug 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> A vaccine could be a game changer but many are not predicting a vaccine being viable until very late this year. And if that does happen, it will take quite some time to distribute. And then of course we will have the anti-vaxers to consider. So I highly doubt a vaccine will come into play in reducing the numbers this year. I guess we'll just have to see who's "prediction" ends up being true. I actually hope John's prediction is the correct one. I should also add that 400,000 number would be an annualized number from the beginning of the pandemic here in the US which was essentially the beginning of March. So it is not implausible to see 400,000 dead in the US by the end of February 2021. Again, I hope to god I'm wrong.


Could and maybe's seldom save anything.

You're hoping that a vaccine is available by the end of the year, just don't pin your hopes on that. Then factor in the fact that there will be those who will have reactions to it. Just like any other medication. Means it's not the cure all you seem to be pinning your hopes on.


----------



## MntnMan62 (24 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> Could and maybe's seldom save anything.
> 
> You're hoping that a vaccine is available by the end of the year, just don't pin your hopes on that. Then factor in the fact that there will be those who will have reactions to it. Just like any other medication. Means it's not the cure all you seem to be pinning your hopes on.



I was just reacting to @marinyork saying that a vaccine could change things up. I'm not pinning my hopes on anything at this point. I would assume my comments clearly indicate that. That said, a vaccine that is well tested prior to being released to the public should do what it's supposed to do. And I fully expect a covid vaccine to be of a relatively short duration and one that requires annual if not more frequent boosters. I think I've got a realistic perspective on things.


----------



## classic33 (24 Aug 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I was just reacting to @marinyork saying that a vaccine could change things up. I'm not pinning my hopes on anything at this point. I would assume my comments clearly indicate that. That said, a vaccine that is well tested prior to being released to the public should do what it's supposed to do. And I fully expect a covid vaccine to be of a relatively short duration and one that requires annual if not more frequent boosters. I think I've got a realistic perspective on things.


Anything in use in less than five years is rushed. Average is 12 years from conception to release for general use.


----------



## MntnMan62 (24 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> Anything in use in less than five years is rushed. Average is 12 years from conception to release for general use.



You know better than I would. I'm in real estate, not science. But I think our choice of quotes in our signatures appear to be somewhat aligned.

"Reality is merely an illusion, although a very persistent one". Albert Einstein
"Absurdity is the only reality... "- Frank Zappa


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## IaninSheffield (25 Aug 2020)

News of someone reinfected with coronavirus not as concerning as it might at first appear?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (25 Aug 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> News of someone reinfected with coronavirus not as concerning as it might at first appear?



He had fever etc first time and no symptoms this time. Immunity doesn’t stop infection is just stops it getting very far. Like the article says 1 case in 3m. Mind since many countries including U.K. are missing / not taking opportunities to test people with none (of the obvious) symptoms who knows the real rate?


----------



## tom73 (25 Aug 2020)

A lot of talk yesterday of why face covering won't be used in English schools it's just one big game of bull s**t bingo. It sounds more a political move then a public health one. Just get a grip and use them if students in a school are able to use them and support using them.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (25 Aug 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> News of someone reinfected with coronavirus not as concerning as it might at first appear?



The significance seems very unclear right now. Seems it could be anything from absolutely terrible to utterly irrelevant, depending on how representative it is, and how much the first infection protected against the symptoms of the second.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (25 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> A lot of talk yesterday of why face covering won't be used in English schools it's just one big game of bull s**t bingo. It sounds more a political move then a public health one. Just get a grip and use them if students in a school are able to use them and support using them.



Indded the going back to school is safe and refusing to answer the question “for whom, just the kids, or everyone they come into contact with”. Kids might not get very sick, doesn’t mean they can’t spread it to adults around them.


----------



## Slick (25 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> A lot of talk yesterday of why face covering won't be used in English schools it's just one big game of bull s**t bingo. It sounds more a political move then a public health one. Just get a grip and use them if students in a school are able to use them and support using them.


As a college, we already took the decision to use them in classrooms only as learners stay in the same class from start to finish of their course and the building has corridors and passageways wide enough to maintain the 2m distance. I think Scotland will announce shortly something similar in schools as it's already obvious that's where a number of cases is now coming from.


----------



## tom73 (25 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> As a college, we already took the decision to use them in classrooms only as learners stay in the same class from start to finish of their course and the building has corridors and passageways wide enough to maintain the 2m distance. I think Scotland will announce shortly something similar in schools as it's already obvious that's where a number of cases is now coming from.



A simple and practical solution to a problem it's not difficult. Be interesting to see if school's who are asking for advice or use lack of it to for not using them. Are the ones who have been happy to use pointless none clinical temperature checks at the door. Which are not advised either.


----------



## marinyork (25 Aug 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Indded the going back to school is safe and refusing to answer the question “for whom, just the kids, or everyone they come into contact with”. Kids might not get very sick, doesn’t mean they can’t spread it to adults around them.



To be fair DCMO Jenny Harries got wheeled on the tv yesterday and pointed out a concerning bit to PHE was teachers spreading it to other teachers and this was a potentially a risk not being taken seriously.


----------



## Julia9054 (25 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> To be fair DCMO Jenny Harries got wheeled on the tv yesterday and pointed out a concerning bit to PHE was teachers spreading it to other teachers and this was a potentially a risk not being taken seriously.


This statement was based on a study done in primary schools. Evidence is beginning to show that whist children under 10 don't transmit the virus efficiently, those over 10 appear to have the same transmission rate as adults.


----------



## fossyant (25 Aug 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> News of someone reinfected with coronavirus not as concerning as it might at first appear?



One of my colleagues fell ill with CV at the start of lockdown and was very poorly. She's recently tested positive again, and her dad is now on a ventilator. I think some folk carry the virus longer and are getting ill again as its not completely cleared up. 

There is a thread on singletrack with folk who have been suffering months.


----------



## marinyork (25 Aug 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> This statement was based on a study done in primary schools. Evidence is beginning to show that whist children under 10 don't transmit the virus efficiently, those over 10 appear to have the same transmission rate as adults.



That's nothing new, everybody here knows that. As said previously there is a lot of focus about how 'unsafe' primary schools are and very little focus on secondary schools, colleges or universities which are higher risk. A secondary school here got told by the council it couldn't implement it's plans, I would imagine like quite a few other secondary schools.

Society and workplaces seems a bit split on this, rather like DCLane I had someone with puzzlement yesterday ask why the heck my uni was going back face to face. Oh you'll not be back to March, don't worry. Well yes there will probably be a second wave around November, but we are still all getting sent back in September.


----------



## Slick (25 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> A simple and practical solution to a problem it's not difficult. Be interesting to see if school's who are asking for advice or use lack of it to for not using them. Are the ones who have been happy to use pointless none clinical temperature checks at the door. Which are not advised either.


As if by magic, Scotland announces face coverings must be worn in schools from Monday.


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## Ming the Merciless (25 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> As if by magic, Scotland announces face coverings must be worn in schools from Monday.



No surprise there. If there is science behind wearing masks it doesn’t suddenly stop applying once in schools.


----------



## tom73 (25 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> That's nothing new, everybody here knows that. As said previously there is a lot of focus about how 'unsafe' primary schools are and very little focus on secondary schools, colleges or universities which are higher risk. A secondary school here got told by the council it couldn't implement it's plans, I would imagine like quite a few other secondary schools.
> 
> Society and workplaces seems a bit split on this, rather like DCLane I had someone with puzzlement yesterday ask why the heck my uni was going back face to face. Oh you'll not be back to March, don't worry. Well yes there will probably be a second wave around November, but we are still all getting sent back in September.



Yep opening them is not the problem keeping them open is hard part. So much of this has been playing to gallery and little effort into who or what's the greasiest risk. How to minimise the risk and what simple messaging need's to go along side it. Once schools get going to keep them open local public health will have to take the lead. Sadly if round here is to anything to go by. That too has been totally taken over by political games. What's not helping is the patch work of school management set's up we now have.


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## tom73 (25 Aug 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> No surprise there. If there is science behind wearing masks it doesn’t suddenly stop applying once in schools.


The Pediatrician advising the government look's to believe just that from what he's been saying. It's if by magic young people don't catch Covid once in school.


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## marinyork (25 Aug 2020)

Study about coronavirus transmission within hospitals.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53895891


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## SpokeyDokey (25 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Study about coronavirus transmission within hospitals.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53895891



From the link:

_The King's College London study of 10 UK hospital sites plus one in Italy found at least one in eight patients who had received hospital treatment for coronavirus had caught it on-site.

Researchers said that was a relatively low rate and showed there was effective infection control in place._

I have no knowledge of intra-hospital infection rates but is that really a 'relatively low rate'?


----------



## marinyork (25 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> From the link:
> 
> _The King's College London study of 10 UK hospital sites plus one in Italy found at least one in eight patients who had received hospital treatment for coronavirus had caught it on-site.
> 
> ...



No idea, but those tested 5 to 14 days brings it to 23%.

It was around the time of the peak though, so very different times.


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## SpokeyDokey (25 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> No idea, but those tested 5 to 14 days brings it to 23%.
> 
> It was around the time of the peak though, so very different times.



Yes, I read that. Scarily high figure.

Maybe an inevitability of an environment that cannot possibly partition every patient. As the elderly and frail are also mentioned then maybe a similar situation existed in care homes?


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## marinyork (25 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Yes, I read that. Scarily high figure.
> 
> Maybe an inevitability of an environment that cannot possibly partition every patient. As the elderly and frail are also mentioned then maybe a similar situation existed in care homes?



There's been a lot of research on care homes. The bigger ones with many staff that work in several different homes it went around like wildfire if it got in in some of them.

My Dad had multiple stays either side of the peak and never caught the virus. Locally as two other posters have said a lot of allied health staff have been given the lab based antibody tests. Many have come back antibody negative. Locally there was the care home worker who was plastered all over national news and came back antibody positive whose mother died and she was pretty upset.


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## tom73 (25 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> From the link:
> 
> _The King's College London study of 10 UK hospital sites plus one in Italy found at least one in eight patients who had received hospital treatment for coronavirus had caught it on-site.
> 
> ...



Yes take for example norovirus it's not uncommon for whole ward's to close and a high number to come down with it. 
In the big picture it's not a big figure add in it's based at the peak. Over all it's not a surprise without knowing what each patient was suffering and what effect that had over all Infection control. It's hard to see if it was mostly preventable or not. 
It's not unknown for patents to go wondering all over the ward particularly if they are confused no matter how hard you try to stop them. Particularly on a night shift with very few staff around. So if they are infected and not yet having signs they can soon spread before you've had a chance to stop them. The fact that it was kept low points to effective basic infection control is able to keep numbers low even at the peck when many areas of the hospital had plenty of other stuff going. Including lack of even basic PPE is all the more to the credit of staff.


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## icowden (25 Aug 2020)

Personally I think we need to stop scaremongering.

There is this constant pushing of information that Covid19 is deadly, you must at all costs avoid catching it. That's just nonsense.
The point of lockdown, of masks, of social distancing is to *spread and reduce the infection rate*. If everyone catches it at the same time, then there won't be enough hospital facilities to help the people who have severe complications from it. The reason for continued control is to balance health resources with the infection rate. Most people who get it won't be badly affected. Those that are badly affected will be treated. Some people will die - just like they do from Flu.

If you are in a high risk group then of course you want to avoid it. Just like you probably want to avoid Flu. Until there is an effective treatment or a vaccination however, you can't to anything to lower your own personal risk level.

Masks in school probably won't help the infection rate or spread. Pupils will be constantly touching them, taking them off, putting them on. Most masks prevent you spreading infection rather than you catching an infection. It's going to be problematic anyway. Schools can't differentiate between a winter cold and Covid19 for example. What happens when little Jonny is sent in with a streaming cold and cough? Does the whole school close just in case?

It's more important to study the effects and react quickly and appropriately. If school x reopens and Covid instance rapidly increases amongst families at School X then school X needs to be closed whilst the infection pocket is controlled and until the infection rate lowers. If all schools open and there is a correlation with infection rate, then different steps need to be taken. There should already be data from reopening year 6,10,12 and reception last term. It needs to be used.


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## roubaixtuesday (25 Aug 2020)

icowden said:


> The reason for continued control is to balance health resources with the infection rate



There is, it seems to me, actually no government strategy on this at all.

Some countries (Scotland, NZ, China) have a strategy to eliminate the virus. 

Some (Germany) seem to aim to minimise deaths by keeping levels very low through track and trace, but don't aim for elimination. 

The US seems, as far as can be elucidated, to have the strategy you suggest, to let it rip up to but not beyond the point of healthcare overwhelm, and accept the deaths that go with that. 

Our strategy is entirely unclear to me, or, I suspect, anyone else. To muddle on until a vaccine is available perhaps.


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## tom73 (25 Aug 2020)

Given the totally balls up of our track and trace plus the lack of testing we continued to to muddle on with for mouths. 
I can't see us having anything detailed enough for the peck as guide for how a totally open up of school will have. 
Mask use in schools is totally sensible and practical. The mass public don't need to bother too much about clinical standards when using them. So no need to become over fixed by it. It's better to have a dirty mask then no mask at all. In the same way as using a hanky twice is better then no hanky. Mass face coverings is for total different aim of source control not prevention. Even WHO that are not the quickest to catch up are now support using them in schools. 

Growing evidence point's to them have some protective benefit to the wearer it wont stop it but will reduce the viral load. In the example of a school take someone who lives in multi occupancy home. With an at risk gran due to being diabetic a kid get's covid at school but was using a mask. It won't stop the gran getting it.But will help to reduce the about they get exposed to and in turn help reduce it's effects.


----------



## tom73 (25 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> There is, it seems to me, actually no government strategy on this at all.
> 
> Some countries (Scotland, NZ, China) have a strategy to eliminate the virus.
> 
> ...



I think they are still holding onto the age old strap line of "it will all over by Christmas" But as when they've used it in past they don't say which one.


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## icowden (25 Aug 2020)

And then there is the question of whether elimination of the virus is even possible:-

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30633-2/fulltext


----------



## kingrollo (25 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Given the totally balls up of our track and trace plus the lack of testing we continued to to muddle on with for mouths.
> I can't see us having anything detailed enough for the peck as guide for how a totally open up of school will have.
> Mask use in schools is totally sensible and practical. The mass public don't need to bother too much about clinical standards when using them. So no need to become over fixed by it. It's better to have a dirty mask then no mask at all. In the same way as using a hanky twice is better then no hanky. Mass face coverings is for total different aim of source control not prevention. Even WHO that are not the quickest to catch up are now support using them in schools.
> 
> Growing evidence point's to them have some protective benefit to the wearer it wont stop it but will reduce the viral load. In the example of a school take someone who lives in multi occupancy home. With an at risk gran due to being diabetic a kid get's covid at school but was using a mask. It won't stop the gran getting it.But will help to reduce the about they get exposed to and in turn help reduce it's effects.



Just as an aside and not wishing start a mask debate. But I have a holiday to Portugal in October. I am asthmatic so need to be careful - what sort of mask would be best for the flight. I realise I'm talking marginal gains. Any recommendations for specific masks welcomed. I Google n95 masks but then get masks which don't appear n95 complaint....cheers all.


----------



## mjr (25 Aug 2020)

srw said:


> [...] and it becomes too wet and cold to queue outside shops.


Sorry, I don't understand that. Have we become a nation of snowflakes too stupid to take waterproofs, umbrellas and warm clothes?


----------



## icowden (25 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Just as an aside and not wishing start a mask debate. But I have a holiday to Portugal in October. I am asthmatic so need to be careful - what sort of mask would be best for the flight. I realise I'm talking marginal gains. Any recommendations for specific masks welcomed. I Google n95 masks but then get masks which don't appear n95 complaint....cheers all.



the only info I have seen suggests that you should avoid masks with valves as they won't stop you spreading the infection to other people. in terms of not catching Covid, I don't think that there is much difference in masks as so many other membranes (e.g. your eyes) are exposed to any stray droplets. The idea of the mask is mostly to stop you spreading rather to prevent you catching,


----------



## marinyork (25 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Just as an aside and not wishing start a mask debate. But I have a holiday to Portugal in October. I am asthmatic so need to be careful - what sort of mask would be best for the flight. I realise I'm talking marginal gains. Any recommendations for specific masks welcomed. I Google n95 masks but then get masks which don't appear n95 complaint....cheers all.



N95 is the American standard.

Get an FFP2 if you can get hold of that (leaving FFP3s for others). An FFP1 is fine, there tends to be a lot of variation in fit though.

Not recommending you wear one for 2+ hours straight, they are not pleasant for stints of time. Get the most comfortable. My cotton ones can be worn way longer than an FFP1.


----------



## tom73 (25 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Just as an aside and not wishing start a mask debate. But I have a holiday to Portugal in October. I am asthmatic so need to be careful - what sort of mask would be best for the flight. I realise I'm talking marginal gains. Any recommendations for specific masks welcomed. I Google n95 masks but then get masks which don't appear n95 complaint....cheers all.


As has been said on the whole clinical grade ones are best avoided if your not use to wearing them for any length of time. Cotton ones are on the whole more comfortable.Plus if it's reusable you've always got one just a quick wash in hot soapy water and you your ready to go again. One less thing to worry about when you're away. I'd go for ones with pleats like the surgical ones they are easier and give you leeway to adjust them. You may have to try a few before you can get one that suits you. I'd also say get use to wearing it for a few hours at a time before you go. See what other's in your situation recommend. I think Asthma Uk have some information about which ones to try. Many who have some sort of breathing issue find they can manage wearing some sort of covering. As for one's with a valve even the government understands they are a bad idea and don't recommend them either.


----------



## Tanis8472 (25 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> As has been said on the whole clinical grade ones are best avoided if your not use to wearing them for any length of time. Cotton ones are on the whole more comfortable.Plus if it's reusable you've always got one just a quick wash in hot soapy water and you your ready to go again. One less thing to worry about when you're away. I'd go for ones with pleats like the surgical ones they are easier and give you leeway to adjust them. You may have to try a few before you can get one that suits you. I'd also say get use to wearing it for a few hours at a time before you go. See what other's in your situation recommend. I think Asthma Uk have some information about which ones to try. Many who have some sort of breathing issue find they can manage wearing some sort of covering. As for one's with a valve even the government understands they are a bad idea and don't recommend them either.



Yet Hancock was seen using the valve ones.


----------



## marinyork (25 Aug 2020)

Half an hour DIY for FFP1 and shopping is longest I have ever managed. Really even 5 mins can be not great. Cotton ones I found all right for 2 to 4 hours.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (25 Aug 2020)

Why on earth is anyone in their right mind even making any foreign travel arrangements this side of 2021, given the virus is going to be circulating all over the globe for months to come, and in a very unpredictable and fast-changing way?
Someone I drink with is now running around like a headless chicken trying to get a test sorted so they can show a negative result before an imminent flight they've planned! What an idiot!


----------



## tom73 (25 Aug 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Yet Hancock was seen using the valve ones.


Not a surprise given he's a hazard to health even without one.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (25 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> The Pediatrician advising the government look's to believe just that from what he's been saying. It's if by magic young people don't catch Covid once in school.



He is just a political puppet who has agreed to go with what they tell him to say. It’s interesting seeing what the sage lot agree and disagree about.


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## Rusty Nails (25 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Why on earth is anyone in their right mind even making any foreign travel arrangements this side of 2021, given the virus is going to be circulating all over the globe for months to come, and in a very unpredictable and fast-changing way?
> Someone I drink with is now running around like a headless chicken trying to get a test sorted so they can show a negative result before an imminent flight they've planned! What an idiot!



There are some people who, rightly or wrongly, do not believe it is more dangerous in other countries in Europe than it is in the UK.

I have also heard that there are even braver souls who go maskless into shops and have even been known to frequent those dangerous Wetherspoons establishments.

I thought you believed the danger of this virus has been overstated, so it's just a bit hypocritical to criticise people who may feel the same.

You pays your money and you takes your choice.


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## kingrollo (25 Aug 2020)

It's often stated that covid had been around a longer than Feb/March ......If that's true why did we only notice excess deaths and a rise in hospital admission s around this time ?

Some people have said it's been around since 2012 ! Again given the ease with which it spread why didn't we have deaths / hospital admission s at this time ?


----------



## classic33 (25 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> It's often stated that covid had been around a longer than Feb/March ......If that's true why did we only notice excess deaths and a rise in hospital admission s around this time ?
> 
> Some people have said it's been around since 2012 ! Again given the ease with which it spread why didn't we have deaths / hospital admission s at this time ?


Middle East Respiratory Disease?

Seems you can even purchase it, as a cultural sample.
https://www.european-virus-archive.com/evag-portal/ictv-taxonomy/betacoronavirus-1


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## kingrollo (25 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> Middle East Respiratory Disease?
> 
> Seems you can even purchase it, as a cultural sample.
> https://www.european-virus-archive.com/evag-portal/ictv-taxonomy/betacoronavirus-1



Sorry you have lost me there.? 

My question was if covid had been around before the end of 2019 - why did we not see any of its effects ?


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## classic33 (26 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Sorry you have lost me there.?
> 
> My question was if covid had been around before the end of 2019 - why did we not see any of its effects ?


A similarly named virus, from 2012, with five cases in the UK
https://www.who.int/csr/don/31-august-2018-mers-united-kingdom/en/


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## raleighnut (26 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> A similarly named virus, from 2012, with five cases in the UK
> https://www.who.int/csr/don/31-august-2018-mers-united-kingdom/en/


Direct contact with Camels.


----------



## Wobblers (26 Aug 2020)

icowden said:


> Personally I think we need to stop scaremongering.
> 
> There is this constant pushing of information that Covid19 is deadly, you must at all costs avoid catching it. That's just nonsense.



Oh for heaven's sake, not this again.

Firstly, the case fatality rate has been consistently above one percent. The true case rate if you let the infection to progress through the population unconstrained is probably closer to 0.5%, for interesting reasons I don't have space to go into. Worldwide, that would mean the deaths of close to 40 million people. That's around the same number who died from the 1918-19 flu pandemic.

Then there's the growing evidence that a significant fraction of those who do catch it end up with long term consequences. On the mild end, this means many months of post viral fatigue. Rather worse, it's looking like it's at least as likely that someone infected with CV19 will end up with permanent lung scarring (pulmonary fibrosis) as they are if dying. Moreover, almost half of those admitted to hospital display cardiac abnormalities.

In the worst case, this implies that four times as many people will end up with permanent debilitating injuries as a direct consequence of Cv19 infection. Whilst this will almost certainly be lower (hopefully very much lower) it is clear that a major public health consequence, perhaps the major one, is that many people will end up with serious permanent medical conditions requiring expensive treatment. For a developed country like the UK this represents a significant drain on the health services. For Third World countries that can't afford such health services, the economic damage from this alone is much worse.

In short, CV19 is not something you want to catch. It is not flu. It does not behave like flu - influenza does NOT attack the endothelial lining of the blood vessels (which causes some of the worst effects). This idea that CV19 is "just another flu" really needs to be laid to rest. It really isn't.


----------



## DaveReading (26 Aug 2020)

McWobble said:


> Rather worse, it's looking like it's at least as likely that someone infected with CV19 will end up with permanent lung scarring (pulmonary fibrosis) as they are of dying.



That's not quite as scary as it sounds.

You're saying that the probability of ending up with permanent lung damage is a bit higher than the CFR. But the latter is currently only about 1.5% in the UK.

So even if the former was, say, double the CFR, then the overall probability of emerging from an infection alive and with no permanent damage is over 95%.

Obviously taking measures to avoid contracting COVID is wise, but that doesn't mean that we should panic.


----------



## Rusty Nails (26 Aug 2020)

DaveReading said:


> That's not quite as scary as it sounds.
> 
> You're saying that the probability of ending up with permanent lung damage is a bit higher than the CFR. But the latter is currently only about 1.5% in the UK.
> 
> ...



I don't see that many people panicking.

Taking precautions that, to a layperson like you (unless you are a medical scientist who knows better of course), might occasionally seem unnecessary is not panicking.

There was some panic-buying at the start but since then things have been very measured.


----------



## matticus (26 Aug 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I don't see that many people panicking.
> 
> Taking precautions that, to a layperson like you (unless you are a medical scientist who knows better of course), might occasionally seem unnecessary is not panicking.
> 
> *There was some panic-buying at the start *but since then things have been very measured.


The people doing the buying just thought it was a sensible precaution.


----------



## Rusty Nails (26 Aug 2020)

matticus said:


> The people doing the buying just thought it was a sensible precaution.



Exactly. One person's sensible precautions is another one's panicking.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (26 Aug 2020)

Don't eat out to help out....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ases-risk-of-covid-19-death-by-48-study-finds


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## mjr (26 Aug 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Don't eat out to help out....
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ases-risk-of-covid-19-death-by-48-study-finds


Eating out is fine. Pigging out is not.


----------



## matticus (26 Aug 2020)

Does anyone else STILL smile when they scroll to the bottom of this page?







...or am I the only 4-year-old on the forum ....


----------



## vickster (26 Aug 2020)

matticus said:


> Does anyone else STILL smile when they scroll to the bottom of this page?
> 
> View attachment 543789
> 
> ...


It’s not really funny as the blood clots could potentially kill him


----------



## matticus (26 Aug 2020)

It is to a 4-year-old.


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## vickster (26 Aug 2020)

matticus said:


> It is to a 4-year-old.


Death? You must know very dark minded toddlers. 
I’d also be concerned about the upbringing of a 4 year old who’s amused by long lasting painful erections. 
maybe a 14 year old?


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## matticus (26 Aug 2020)

vickster said:


> erections.


<snigger>


----------



## tom73 (26 Aug 2020)

Now it's widely accepted inc by SAGE that Covid is spread by airborne transmission. It going to need more than social distancing to keep things open and keep people safe out and about. 
It's not going to be a simple process but this new paper in the BJM set's it out nicely inc a simple risk table. 
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now it's widely accepted inc by SAGE that Covid is spread by airborne transmission. It going to need more than social distancing to keep things open and keep people safe out and about.
> It's not going to be a simple process but this new paper in the BJM set's it out nicely inc a simple risk table.
> https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223



No footie matches for a while then...


----------



## matticus (26 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now it's widely accepted inc by SAGE that Covid is spread by airborne transmission. It going to need more than social distancing to keep things open and keep people safe out and about.


So is it time to panic about someone in the same town as me having Covid?


----------



## tom73 (26 Aug 2020)

No I'd be more worried about anyone who come's out with a comment like that.


----------



## kingrollo (26 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now it's widely accepted inc by SAGE that Covid is spread by airborne transmission. It going to need more than social distancing to keep things open and keep people safe out and about.
> It's not going to be a simple process but this new paper in the BJM set's it out nicely inc a simple risk table.
> https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223



Would explain a lot. Like why all the hand washing and extra hygiene seemed to slow the virus hardly at all - where as the lockdown did. It would all point to the gloomy prospect of an uptick in cases when we start staying in more in the colder months.


----------



## Julia9054 (26 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now it's widely accepted inc by SAGE that Covid is spread by airborne transmission. It going to need more than social distancing to keep things open and keep people safe out and about.
> It's not going to be a simple process but this new paper in the BJM set's it out nicely inc a simple risk table.
> https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223


That table shows transmission in secondary schools is pretty much a certainty then


----------



## icowden (26 Aug 2020)

McWobble said:


> In short, CV19 is not something you want to catch. It is not flu. It does not behave like flu - influenza does NOT attack the endothelial lining of the blood vessels (which causes some of the worst effects). This idea that CV19 is "just another flu" really needs to be laid to rest. It really isn't.



All perfectly valid. But as we can't eliminate it, and as a significant amount of people can only avoid it, masks aren't 100% effective and social distancing has to be balanced with various other issues such as child protection, psychological damage and economic hardship, the bottom line is that we need our health services to be able to respond and help those most seriously affected.

Therefore the best position is to try to slow / reduce transmission rates.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Aug 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> That table shows transmission in secondary schools is pretty much a certainty then



Seems to me mass testing of pupils and teachers is the only sensible strategy. 

If we can't manage every pupil weekly, pooled samples may be the way forward.


----------



## matticus (26 Aug 2020)

icowden said:


> All perfectly valid. But as we can't eliminate it, and as a significant amount of people can only avoid it, masks aren't 100% effective and social distancing has to be balanced with various other issues such as child protection, psychological damage and economic hardship, the bottom line is that we need our health services to be able to respond and help those most seriously affected.
> 
> Therefore the best position is to try to slow / reduce transmission rates.



Whenever stuff like _child protection, psychological damage and economic hardship_ are mentioned, it seems to trigger certain people. They reflexively blurt out stuff like:
"COVID's really serious you know!" and
"Every life matters - more than your _convenience_."


----------



## marinyork (26 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Would explain a lot. Like why all the hand washing and extra hygiene seemed to slow the virus hardly at all - where as the lockdown did. It would all point to the gloomy prospect of an uptick in cases when we start staying in more in the colder months.



There are other explanations. It seems to be generally reckoned fomite transmission is lower than was thought originally (it's no bad thing as some other diseases are very bad). It just seems to have stuck in peoples' heads.

There does seem to be a split in the population currently between those who are quite happy to go into packed indoor environments without masks as long as it's 'clean' and those that see the formite transmission as much lower and it is density and indoor vs outdoor, masks and length of time you should worry about.


----------



## matticus (26 Aug 2020)

Lockdown reduces people proximity. So we're much less likely to share door handles (or shake hands <shudder> ). So i would guess that fomite transmission can be controlled by hygiene AND lockdown, with one helping the other; not two uncorrelated mechanisms.


----------



## marinyork (26 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Sorry you have lost me there.?
> 
> My question was if covid had been around before the end of 2019 - why did we not see any of its effects ?



Circulating at low levels. We don't know when it came. It takes about two months of unhindered circulation to end up with a large number of cases.

It was in China in November (curiously a lot of sources still quote December). It was in Milan and Turin in December. It was in the UK in January.


----------



## marinyork (26 Aug 2020)

matticus said:


> Lockdown reduces people proximity. So we're much less likely to share door handles (or shake hands <shudder> ). So i would guess that fomite transmission can be controlled by hygiene AND lockdown, with one helping the other; not two uncorrelated mechanisms.



All the measures go together. That was with 100 000 people a day catching it for some days in March.

Just interesting as the last few weeks there are people that worry about it a lot. 

I think there are a lot of people not wanting to be socially judged so going on about the virus and when you are out of earshot going on about going inside cafes, pubs and restaurants and shopping centres 3 or 4 times a week.


----------



## kingrollo (26 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> There are other explanations. It seems to be generally reckoned fomite transmission is lower than was thought originally (it's no bad thing as some other diseases are very bad). It just seems to have stuck in peoples' heads.
> 
> There does seem to be a split in the population currently between those who are quite happy to go into packed indoor environments without masks as long as it's 'clean' and those that see the formite transmission as much lower and it is density and indoor vs outdoor, masks and length of time you should worry about.


Seems to back up your thoughts. 

"In my opinion, the chance of transmission through inanimate surfaces is very small, and only in instances where an infected person coughs or sneezes on the surface, and someone else touches that surface soon after the cough or sneeze (within 1–2 h). I do not disagree with erring on the side of caution, but this can go to extremes not justified by the data. Although periodically disinfecting surfaces and use of gloves" 

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30561-2.pdf


----------



## mjr (26 Aug 2020)

We had a nice mailing this week from the county council co-branded with Public Health England including a letter telling us that coronavirus hasn't gone away and a leaflet saying that if we have symptoms we should isolate and book a test, along with what "isolate" means, how to book a test and various other things people should do.

I suspect most people will have put it in the bin along with the insulation mailshot that was in a similar unaddressed envelope.

Edit: press coverage including quotes of the letter and a pic of the inside of the leaflet at https://www.lynnnews.co.uk/news/nor...sting-information-to-every-household-9120514/


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (26 Aug 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I thought you believed the danger of this virus has been overstated, so it's just a bit hypocritical to criticise people who may feel the same.
> You pays your money and you takes your choice.



I do think the danger of the virus has been overstated, largely by hysterical politicians and the media. To me, it's no big deal as I've made clear many times
The reason I was criticising people is not because of the risk of the virus, but for the stupidity of trying to travel abroad for non-essential purposes bearing in mind the high likelihood of travel being disrupted at short notice due to more virus in the destination areas, or being forced to quarantine after travelling. Someone at work has just had his two weeks in Spain extended to two weeks holiday & two weeks isolation, that's pretty much his whole years annual leave entitlement blown now because he just couldn't bide his time and wait until next year before going abroad. There's plenty of places he could have gone to visit in the UK, and it would have helped OUR own domestic economy too, rather than putting money in the pockets of the Spanish! He'll be moaning now that he can't take any more days off work until next year and will also have to come in all over Christmas....


----------



## tom73 (26 Aug 2020)

Promoting basic hand washing is no bad thing all round not just for Covid. With Covid it’s about having a package of measures and not cherry picking. I don’t worry too much about fomite transmission unless I‘m about to do anything that’s a risk to me. Or I've just seen someone coughing all over the place all over something i’m about to handle. Once home I do wash my hands it’s just good practice.


----------



## tom73 (26 Aug 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> That table shows transmission in secondary schools is pretty much a certainty then


Odd’s on at some point new build school‘s like ours even more so with all the low ceilings and hardly any windows that open. The clear measure is open the windows and keep them open.


----------



## mjr (26 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I do think the danger of the virus has been overstated, largely by hysterical politicians and the media. To me, it's no big deal as I've made clear many times
> The reason I was criticising people is not because of the risk of the virus, but for the stupidity of trying to travel abroad for non-essential purposes bearing in mind the high likelihood of travel being disrupted at short notice due to more virus in the destination areas, or being forced to quarantine after travelling.


So it's "no big deal" but it's "stupidity" to try to carry on as normal? 

I think you're more upset that he preferred to go abroad than stay in your beloved Blighty, as this makes little sense with bits of GB also being locked down at random - quarantines may yet come:


> There's plenty of places he could have gone to visit in the UK, and it would have helped OUR own domestic economy too, rather than putting money in the pockets of the Spanish!


----------



## classic33 (26 Aug 2020)

matticus said:


> Whenever stuff like _child protection, psychological damage and economic hardship_ are mentioned, it seems to trigger certain people. They reflexively blurt out stuff like:
> "COVID's really serious you know!" and
> *"Every life matters - more than your convenience."*


I'd put my _convenience_ after any life. Any day.


----------



## tom73 (26 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Seems to me mass testing of pupils and teachers is the only sensible strategy.
> 
> If we can't manage every pupil weekly, pooled samples may be the way forward.


Good luck with that that’s not even happening in prisons. If schools set alarm bells ringing inside a prison must be off the scale. Even when they send a test off very few are even coming back. Health care are mostly going in blind. I showed the paper I linked to Mrs 73 she just said i’m stuffed then. Even now only health care wear masks and supply of them is not a given.


----------



## matticus (26 Aug 2020)

The thing is, nobody has said the opposite. Still, you've seized the opportunity for some moral high-ground peak-bagging . Make sure you burn that straw-man while you're up there, for maximum visibility!


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (26 Aug 2020)

My sister has symptoms 

She's a nursing assistant at Ninewells and a nurse from the other shift of her department has tested positive, meaning the entire shift has had to go into self-isolation. My sister borrowed the girl's pen at the shift changeover and used it through her shift, now she has a bit of a fever and a dry cough. Tried to get a test yesterday but was told there's been a spike in demand due to schools going back so the nearest available test centre was Inverness - 160 miles away! Got tested today though more locally, just waiting for results.


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## SkipdiverJohn (26 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> So it's "no big deal" but it's "stupidity" to try to carry on as normal?



You know exactly what I mean, but are choosing to be obtuse.
If I know there's some roadworks on a certain stretch of road, because there was a major burst water main there yesterday I don't just drive down that route in the middle of the rush hour regardless. i use another route. Why? Because I know the roadworks carries a high probability of disrupting my journey, so I do something different. it's the same with the virus; if you go somewhere abroad and there's a sudden outbreak of cases, some official reaction is likely such as quarantine requirements, flights being disrupted etc - so the sensible thing is not to go abroad where you might become stranded. 
You only have to look at all the muppets scrambling to get back from France & Spain etc, just before the self-isolation deadline kicked an, just shows the mentality of some people. They chance their arm during a pandemic, then have to cut their trip short and pay for expensive tickets to get back early, because they don't fancy isolating. If they'd had their holiday at home, they'd have avoided all the hassle and expense. As I said, idiots.


----------



## Julia9054 (26 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Someone at work has just had his two weeks in Spain extended to two weeks holiday & two weeks isolation, that's pretty much his whole years annual leave entitlement blown now because he just couldn't bide his time and wait until next year before going abroad.


Your work mate is clearly an idiot. However there are plenty of people for whom a 2 week quarantine would not be a major inconvenience who would think it was worth a last minute trip abroad


----------



## PK99 (26 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> My sister has symptoms
> 
> She's a nursing assistant at Ninewells and a nurse from the other shift of her department has tested positive, meaning the entire shift has had to go into self-isolation.* My sister borrowed the girl's pen at the shift changeover and used it through her shift, now she has a bit of a fever and a dry cough. *Tried to get a test yesterday but was told there's been a spike in demand due to schools going back so the nearest available test centre was Inverness - 160 miles away! Got tested today though more locally, just waiting for results.



Sorry to be blunt, but that is careless in the extreme.

Whatever policies the government puts in place it is the actions of individuals that really matter.


----------



## PK99 (26 Aug 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Your work mate is clearly an idiot. However there are plenty of people for whom a 2 week quarantine would not be a major inconvenience who would think it was worth a last minute trip abroad



we have booked 2 weeks in Madeira over Xmas/NY - 2 weeks isolation on return would not be an issue. #Retired


----------



## Wobblers (27 Aug 2020)

DaveReading said:


> That's not quite as scary as it sounds.
> 
> You're saying that the probability of ending up with permanent lung damage is a bit higher than the CFR. But the latter is currently only about 1.5% in the UK.
> 
> ...




If we take your figures - 5% chance of death or adverse consequences and look at the at risk population of the UK of 30 million, that comes to 1.5 million dead or left with serious long term conditions. All of which will occur in the space of a few months. This would represent the biggest health emergency this country has ever seen. 

Yes, this is worst case. The reality will be less - hopefully much less. But understand that these figures are orders of magnitude worse than measles, mumps and rubella, combined. Which we routinely vaccinate for, because it's understood that there are significant health benefits in doing so. This is not about panicking. It is about recognising what the potential consequences for public health here, and worldwide are. My own growing suspicion is that those left with long term conditions after CV19 will be at least as significant in terms of public health as the number who die.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (27 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> Sorry to be blunt, but that is careless in the extreme.
> 
> Whatever policies the government puts in place it is the actions of individuals that really matter.


Aye, I thought about pointing that out but decided it wouldn't help family relations much.


----------



## Slick (27 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Aye, I thought about pointing that out but decided it wouldn't help family relations much.


She already knows that so not much point highlighting it now.


----------



## tom73 (27 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Aye, I thought about pointing that out but decided it wouldn't help family relations much.


It's more than highly likely due to the close contact working conditions than anything else. It may not even be down to her colleague but a totally different source. Who may not even know they are carrying it including her patients.


----------



## raleighnut (27 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> we have booked 2 weeks in Madeira over Xmas/NY - 2 weeks isolation on return would not be an issue. #Retired


Ah but would catching Covid 19 be a problem, it'd be the flights I would be most worried about.


----------



## mjr (27 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If they'd had their holiday at home, they'd have avoided all the hassle and expense.


Except the virus is here too and you're more likely to get one of Dido's minions call you to tell you to quarantine. The expense may be less but they would not necessarily avoid hassle by staying this side of a political fiction (border) and it's idiocy to say so.


----------



## mjr (27 Aug 2020)

In other news, Norfolk chicken-mangling factory outbreak now classed nationally significant, with 75 positives last I read. https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health...ally-closes-after-covid-19-outbreak-1-6810693


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## mjr (27 Aug 2020)

People on low incomes in lockdown areas to be paid to quarantine in trial scheme https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...k-covid-hotspots-to-be-paid-if-self-isolating


----------



## icowden (27 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> Except the virus is here too and you're more likely to get one of Dido's minions call you to tell you to quarantine. The expense may be less but they would not necessarily avoid hassle by staying this side of a political fiction (border) and it's idiocy to say so.



But by staying in the UK they can take control of their exposure. If you fly to another country you are necessarily putting yourself in a high risk environment (the plane) for a prolonged period of time. Staying in the UK they can use their own car (safe) and choose where to go / change their mind if somewhere seems too busy.


----------



## mjr (27 Aug 2020)

icowden said:


> But by staying in the UK they can take control of their exposure. If you fly to another country you are necessarily putting yourself in a high risk environment (the plane) for a prolonged period of time. [...]


Not necessarily! I've travelled to most of Europe without using a plane - check the Touring board for other examples, including a NL-Mexico overland - while some people take planes or trains to travel in the UK. How to travel is a different question.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (27 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> My sister has symptoms
> 
> She's a nursing assistant at Ninewells and a nurse from the other shift of her department has tested positive, meaning the entire shift has had to go into self-isolation. My sister borrowed the girl's pen at the shift changeover and used it through her shift, now she has a bit of a fever and a dry cough. Tried to get a test yesterday but was told there's been a spike in demand due to schools going back so the nearest available test centre was Inverness - 160 miles away! Got tested today though more locally, just waiting for results.



Results back - negative !


----------



## marinyork (27 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Results back - negative !



Two weeks rest and recuperation then .


----------



## Julia9054 (27 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Results back - negative !


Does she now go back to work or must she remain in isolation for 14 days?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (27 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Two weeks rest and recuperation then .






Julia9054 said:


> Does she now go back to work or must she remain in isolation for 14 days?



Oh. she seems to think she's going back to work tomorrow?


----------



## HobbesOnTour (27 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> Not necessarily! I've travelled to most of Europe without using a plane - check the Touring board for other examples, including a NL-Mexico overland - while some people take planes or trains to travel in the UK. How to travel is a different question.


I'll ask you not to use me as an example in your ridiculous argument.

Travelling by cargo ship is impossible at the moment, and quite possibly will be in the future, not to mention most reservations are made a year (or longer) in advance.

A border is not just a "political" fiction at the moment - it is a simple, fast and easily understood way to limit movement. In Ireland, three counties were put on lockdown after a localised outbreak, now reduced to one. The county border is a clumsy way of limiting movement but it was, wait for it, fast and understood by all (possibly not the tourists!) There are numerous examples from around Europe of similar geographically based limitations.

In case you haven't noticed, this Covid thing has changed things a bit..... and continues to do so - rapidly, so your previous travel to and in Europe is mostly irrelevant. 

If people want to go abroad, they should endeavour to understand _all_ of the potential pitfalls. Making light of the issues is a disservice to all.


----------



## Julia9054 (27 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Oh. she seems to think she's going back to work tomorrow?


I’m asking because I want to know how it’s going to work when I go back to school every time a staff member starts with symptoms


----------



## mjr (27 Aug 2020)

HobbesOnTour said:


> I'll ask you not to use me as an example in your ridiculous argument.
> 
> Travelling by cargo ship is impossible at the moment, and quite possibly will be in the future, not to mention most reservations are made a year (or longer) in advance.


But travel by other ships and by motorail remain possible ways to leave this country without a plane, so it's really not ridiculous to say it's not a necessary part of it.



> In Ireland, three counties were put on lockdown after a localised outbreak, now reduced to one. The county border is a clumsy way of limiting movement but it was, wait for it, fast and understood by all (possibly not the tourists!) There are numerous examples from around Europe of similar geographically based limitations.


Yes and not all are along national borders, as in your example.



> If people want to go abroad, they should endeavour to understand _all_ of the potential pitfalls. Making light of the issues is a disservice to all.


I'm not making light of the issues. I'm suggesting it's a bit more complex than the simplistic "our country's safe / abroad is risky" presented above.


----------



## classic33 (27 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> But travel by other ships and by motorail remain possible ways to leave this country without a plane, so it's really not ridiculous to say it's not a necessary part of it.
> 
> 
> Yes and not all are along national borders, as in your example.
> ...


Try getting to Ireland via ferry from the UK. Not as easy as you seem to think.


----------



## tom73 (27 Aug 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I’m asking because I want to know how it’s going to work when I go back to school every time a staff member starts with symptoms


Still should isolate one negative test is not enough to rule out your safe.


----------



## tom73 (27 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Oh. she seems to think she's going back to work tomorrow?


She needs to check with with the ward manger I’m not sure infection control will be happy to allow her back that quick.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (27 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Still should isolate one negative test is not enough to rule out your safe.


Well the procedure from the hospital appears to be a negative test means back to work.


----------



## HobbesOnTour (27 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> But travel by other ships and by motorail remain possible ways to leave this country without a plane, so it's really not ridiculous to say it's not a necessary part of it.
> 
> 
> Yes and not all are along national borders, as in your example.
> ...




By suggesting that someone pop on over to the Touring forum (a great forum by the way!) and look for inspiration is pretty much the definition of making light of the issues because (and I'm writing really slowly here.....)
so 
much 
has 
changed.

How many ferry companies are currently allowing bikes? The last time I checked bikes were not allowed on most. Even if that has changed I think it would be foolhardy to go abroad and not have a contingency for that to change....again.

The point about the county border was simply that the authorities will, in time of stress default to the swiftest and simplest means - in some cases that will be national borders. 

There have been more than enough examples of things changing very, very quickly. For some people that won't be a problem and for some it will be a huge problem.

The only way people won't get a nasty surprise is if they are aware of what can happen - and there are more than enough examples out there already. 

And the next time you feel like using me to bolster an argument, just don't. 
On the very rare occasions I agree with a point you're making, the style of argument, the tone, the language used all combine to make me really want to agree with the other side.

I'm going back to my Spanish - it makes more sense than some.


----------



## tom73 (27 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Well the procedure from the hospital appears to be a negative test means back to work.


That’s either Policy over ruled by management to keep staffing up or someone been reading the guidelines backwards. Then again the guidelines may have been changed when no one was looking


----------



## Slick (27 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Oh. she seems to think she's going back to work tomorrow?


Nicola has stated more than once that self isolation must be completed even after a negative test because of the incubation period. 



Julia9054 said:


> I’m asking because I want to know how it’s going to work when I go back to school every time a staff member starts with symptoms


I'm sure it will be different for you but it's clear up here even a negative test does not release you if you have had symptoms.


----------



## DCLane (27 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> Try getting to Ireland via ferry from the UK. Not as easy as you seem to think.



Tell me about it. Son no. 2 couldn't participate in his national race because we couldn't quarantine for 2 weeks. Currently waiting to see if they'll lift the quarantine from the UK for mid-September.

SWMBO hasn't seen her parents for months as a result.


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## classic33 (27 Aug 2020)

DCLane said:


> Tell me about it. Son no. 2 couldn't participate in his national race because we couldn't quarantine for 2 weeks. Currently waiting to see if they'll lift the quarantine from the UK for mid-September.
> 
> SWMBO hasn't seen her parents for months as a result.


A sweeping assumption on my part here, are the restrictions the same on UK to UK ports*?

Stranraer to Larne.


----------



## Stephenite (27 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> Nicola has stated more than once that self isolation must be completed even after a negative test because of the incubation period.
> 
> 
> I'm sure it will be different for you but it's clear up here even a negative test does not release you if you have had symptoms.


My employer's guidelines (in norway) are to stay away from work until symptom free plus one day.* If you work in healthcare you have to follow instructions from your manager.

I had a negative test last week but still at home because i have the sniffles.


----------



## Slick (27 Aug 2020)

Stephenite said:


> My employer's guidelines (in norway) are to stay away from work until symptom free plus one day.* If you work in healthcare you have to follow instructions from your manager.
> 
> I had a negative test last week but still at home because i have the sniffles.


I think that will happen from time to time. Someone in our office started self isolating with her daughter because her ex man thought that he had it and it turned out to be the sniffles. Better safe than sorry though.


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## tom73 (27 Aug 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-engla...oronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story
Who think’s they may have Covid , get’s tested and still think’s it’s ok to go abroad on holiday before you get the result? 
Just how thick and selfish can you get? 
The question is how many more are going it ?


----------



## midlife (27 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Results back - negative !



Had my first COVID swab test at work today. Was working in a surgical outpatients department for a change and Thursday is swab day for patient facing staff. No escape and lined up with the rest. 

My part of the hospital has never been tested so will be interesting if I test positive. 

Close my part of the hospital for deep clean and send the rest home to self isolate? 

I'll wait and see....


----------



## DCLane (27 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> A sweeping assumption on my part here, are the restrictions the same on UK to UK ports*?
> 
> Stranraer to Larne.



It's on the border, which must be creating chaos. That's if they're abiding by it.


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## classic33 (27 Aug 2020)

DCLane said:


> It's on the border, which must be creating chaos. That's if they're abiding by it.


I know they were doing the random roadside checkpoints when the 2km came in. 

I've relatives with one County separating them, who can't visit each other.


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## marinyork (27 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> Nicola has stated more than once that self isolation must be completed even after a negative test because of the incubation period.
> 
> 
> I'm sure it will be different for you but it's clear up here even a negative test does not release you if you have had symptoms.



It is the same everywhere and hasn't changed for a substantial amount of time.

The issue is when the test is. It always has been and led to many arguments online or on tv. A lot of research has been done to back it up. If you literally have a test straight away it picks up about 10% of cases. It's useless. If you do a test between 3 and 7 days it's reasonably effective depending what level of risk is deemed acceptable (and that's something people will argue about). A tv doctor gets annoyed about this but when pushed has said yeah actually 3 days would be all right. Really you want to be testing first nodes a second time to see if virus levels have fallen sufficiently. For second nodes you want it twice but really for the benefit of finding third nodes and finding out how it spreads in particular environments.

For travel quarantines other countries have started doing tests at 5 days or later for the same reason (although that's a lower risk than a second node).


----------



## marinyork (27 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-engla...oronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story
> Who think’s they may have Covid , get’s tested and still think’s it’s ok to go abroad on holiday before you get the result?
> Just how thick and selfish can you get?
> The question is how many more are going it ?



From what I can tell this has been happening a fair bit at pub 'outbreaks'. This is just a documented more extreme version.


----------



## icowden (27 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> It is the same everywhere and hasn't changed for a substantial amount of time.
> 
> The issue is when the test is. It always has been and led to many arguments online or on tv. A lot of research has been done to back it up. If you literally have a test straight away it picks up about 10% of cases. It's useless. If you do a test between 3 and 7 days it's reasonably effective depending what level of risk is deemed acceptable (and that's something people will argue about). A tv doctor gets annoyed about this but when pushed has said yeah actually 3 days would be all right. Really you want to be testing first nodes a second time to see if virus levels have fallen sufficiently. For second nodes you want it twice but really for the benefit of finding third nodes and finding out how it spreads in particular environments.
> 
> For travel quarantines other countries have started doing tests at 5 days or later for the same reason (although that's a lower risk than a second node).



From UK.Gov:-



> *Negative test result*
> A negative result means the test did not find coronavirus.
> You do not need to self-isolate if your test is negative, as long as:
> 
> ...



She was tested negative when symptomatic so she isn't an asymptomatic spreader. She just has a fever and cold.UK Gov says for workers in healthcare settings:-



> *5.1 If staff are symptomatic when tested*
> Staff who test negative for SARS-CoV-2 can return to work when they are medically fit to do so, following discussion with their line manager and appropriate local risk assessment. Interpret negative results with caution together with clinical assessment.



So if her line manager is happy for her to return to work, she returns to work.#

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...are-workers-and-patients-in-hospital-settings


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## mjr (28 Aug 2020)

HobbesOnTour said:


> How many ferry companies are currently allowing bikes? The last time I checked bikes were not allowed on most. Even if that has changed I think it would be foolhardy to go abroad and not have a contingency for that to change....again.


DFDS and Stena both seem to be allowing bikes to be booked on all the routes they usually do that I checked. I read something a while ago about Brittany Ferries not allowing bikes on the western Channel routes, but they will from next Tuesday, (at least on the surviving services).

However, the original point (which was somewhat rather lost in the tantrum) included car ferries and motorail too. People really can go abroad without planes.



> There have been more than enough examples of things changing very, very quickly. For some people that won't be a problem and for some it will be a huge problem.
> 
> The only way people won't get a nasty surprise is if they are aware of what can happen - and there are more than enough examples out there already.


I think we agree there - but it applies even if you stay in the UK. I don't think we've yet had official quarantine requirements for returning home from other parts of the UK, but nothing is certain these days and that sort of thing has already happened in other countries. Yes, make contingency plans.


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## marinyork (28 Aug 2020)

icowden said:


> She was tested negative when symptomatic so she isn't an asymptomatic spreader. She just has a fever and cold.UK Gov says for workers in healthcare settings:-



Keep up. Second node!

Generally second nodes do have to isolate. You are simply wrong. If you're going to quote gov.uk actually quote the right bit.

Incidentally you also unhelpfully quoted the wrong bits about health workers 'as part of routine testing'. If they are contacted by track and trace what you've written is unhelpful, they have to isolate unless HPT says no. 

Joey didn't say whether it was routine testing or not...


----------



## classic33 (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> *DFDS and Stena both seem to be allowing bikes to be booked on all the routes they usually do that I checked. *I read something a while ago about Brittany Ferries not allowing bikes on the western Channel routes, but they will from next Tuesday, (at least on the surviving services).
> 
> However, the original point (which was somewhat rather lost in the tantrum) included car ferries and motorail too. People really can go abroad without planes.
> 
> ...


Stena aren't allowing bikes on their services to Ireland for the foreseeable future. 

They're limiting all such journeys to necessary travel. Is a cycling holiday really necessary travel?


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## marinyork (28 Aug 2020)

Adverts to get people out of the house and to the office from next week!

Wonder if Theresa May will be consulted on billboards they could drive round to shop people 'have you seen someone not at work? Report them on 0300 111 1111 for a cash reward. Stay alert. Stay at work.' I'm sure a few tens of millions could be spent.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-to-get-workers-back-to-offices-amid-pandemic


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## classic33 (28 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Adverts to get people out of the house and to the office from next week!
> 
> Wonder if Theresa May will be consulted on billboards they could drive round to shop people 'have you seen someone not at work? Report them on 0300 111 1111 for a cash reward. Stay alert. Stay at work.' I'm sure a few tens of millions could be spent.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-to-get-workers-back-to-offices-amid-pandemic


Isn't that more because working from home could kill town & city centres. Because those who would normally spend there have been missing for some time now.

Some large local offices have been as low as 10% of normal staffing levels these last few months.


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## marinyork (28 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> Isn't that more because working from home could kill town & city centres. Because those who would normally spend there have been missing for some time now.
> 
> Some large local offices have been as low as 10% of normal staffing levels these last few months.



It is and various papers taking different angles on that.

Different districts of town this seems to vary. Some areas are empty others are busy.


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## classic33 (28 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> It is and various papers taking different angles on that.
> 
> Different districts of town this seems to vary. Some areas are empty others are busy.


If the shops that supported the larger business's close, what will replace them when the service sector go back to work, as "normal".


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## classic33 (28 Aug 2020)

Gregg's in Leeds been hit with further positive results.

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news...irus-outbreak-confirmed-leeds-greggs-18839668


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## Joey Shabadoo (28 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Keep up. Second node!
> 
> Generally second nodes do have to isolate. You are simply wrong. If you're going to quote gov.uk actually quote the right bit.
> 
> ...


AIUI, she developed Covid-like symptoms after another nurse tested positive. She phoned her line manager who told her to get tested - this took place a day late because of no local testing availability. 24hrs later it came back negative but, my sister being my sister, she's leaving it until today to tell her manager so she could get an extra day off  She thinks she's going back to work immediately, maybe her line manager will tell her different.


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## Slick (28 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> AIUI, she developed Covid-like symptoms after another nurse tested positive. She phoned her line manager who told her to get tested - this took place a day late because of no local testing availability. 24hrs later it came back negative but, my sister being my sister, she's leaving it until today to tell her manager so she could get an extra day off  She thinks she's going back to work immediately, maybe her line manager will tell her different.


I'm quite sure he will. 👍


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Aug 2020)

Currently our case numbers have been rising week on week for some time. 

I hear on the radio that govt are going to run an advertising campaign to get people back to offices due to the effect of low foot fall on city centres. 

But surely, if cases are rising, we need to take action to reduce transmission, not actions which will increase it, particularly with the return of schools too. I genuinely don't understand govt strategy.


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## Flick of the Elbow (28 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Currently our case numbers have been rising week on week for some time.
> 
> I hear on the radio that govt are going to run an advertising campaign to get people back to offices due to the effect of low foot fall on city centres.
> 
> But surely, if cases are rising, we need to take action to reduce transmission, not actions which will increase it, particularly with the return of schools too. I genuinely don't understand govt strategy.


Me neither. I’m assuming you mean the English government. Encouraging people back into city centres, the ridiculous eat out scheme, allowing pubs to open at all, it all seems non sensical to me. The Scottish government is still saying ‘stay away from the office’ but I still think it’s wrong that they’ve allowed pubs to reopen. As demonstrated by Aberdeen.


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## SkipdiverJohn (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> Except the virus is here too and you're more likely to get one of Dido's minions call you to tell you to quarantine. The expense may be less but they would not necessarily avoid hassle by staying this side of a political fiction (border) and it's idiocy to say so.



So one of Dido's minions rings you up and tells you to quarantine. Response; ignore their instruction and just carry on as normal. Result = no hassle.


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## tom73 (28 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Currently our case numbers have been rising week on week for some time.
> 
> I hear on the radio that govt are going to run an advertising campaign to get people back to offices due to the effect of low foot fall on city centres.
> 
> But surely, if cases are rising, we need to take action to reduce transmission, not actions which will increase it, particularly with the return of schools too. I genuinely don't understand govt strategy.



Yep yesterday was the highest since June. All this is at a time when viral load is low due to the measures in place and lot of luck. The more people that start seeing every thing is normal now. It's not going to stay down with no plan to really push to get cases to as close to zero as we can we. It's not looking great for winter. Been a lot of talk of upping the number of flu jab's but not much else the logistics are massive anyway. Add in having to work round covid and finding enough people to do them. It's not looking good on that front either. 
In other new's the government has said the Saint Leger can have spectators attend all three days. Be it limited numbers but still over 22,000 over 4 days. Trun's out it was news to the council 
Other sports can have fans too in turns out. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/53921797
Whitty has made it clear more than once we are already at the safe limit but what's he know? At least Dido is now in charge of public health now so what can possibly go wrong ?


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yep yesterday was the highest since June. All this is at a time when viral load is low due to the measures in place and lot of luck. The more people that start seeing every thing is normal now. It's not going to stay down with no plan to really push to get cases to as close to zero as we can we. It's not looking great for winter. Been a lot of talk of upping the number of flu jab's but not much else the logistics are massive anyway. Add in having to work round covid and finding enough people to do them. It's not looking good on that front either.
> In other new's the government has said the Saint Leger can have spectators attend all three days. Be it limited numbers but still over 22,000 over 4 days. Trun's out it was news to the council
> Other sports can have fans too in turns out. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/53921797
> Whitty has made it clear more than once we are already at the safe limit but what's he know? At least Dido is now in charge of public health now so what can possibly go wrong ?



This seems bonkers whilst cases are rising. I'd be all in favour if we were on top of it. 

Have these people ever been to a sports event? Are they expecting thousands of fans to sit quietly apart, stone cold sober and masked up??


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## SkipdiverJohn (28 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> But surely, if cases are rising, we need to take action to reduce transmission, not actions which will increase it, particularly with the return of schools too. I genuinely don't understand govt strategy.



It depends if you think wrecking the economy and suffering mass unemployment for years to come is a price worth paying to make the virus infection stats look good.
Personally, I couldn't give a shoot how high the infection numbers get so long as they don't reach the point where they overwhelm the NHS capacity to deal with the most serious cases. The NHS didn't collapse when we were running at an official 5,000 a day infection count, and that was before the Nightingale field hospital contingency pretty much doubled intensive care capacity. So in reality, we in the UK could probably manage a 10,000 virus cases a day scenario without anything too disastrous resulting. All the time we are bumping along at around 1,000 cases a day we are just cruising.


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> It depends if you think wrecking the economy and suffering mass unemployment for years to come is a price worth paying to make the virus infection stats look good.
> Personally, I couldn't give a shoot how high the infection numbers get so long as they don't reach the point where they overwhelm the NHS capacity to deal with the most serious cases. The NHS didn't collapse when we were running at an official 5,000 a day infection count, and that was before the Nightingale field hospital contingency pretty much doubled intensive care capacity. So in reality, we in the UK could probably manage a 10,000 virus cases a day scenario without anything too disastrous resulting. All the time we are bumping along at around 1,000 cases a day we are just cruising.



Unconstrained, the virus doubles every 3.5 days or so.

1000 cases becomes 10 000 in about ten days.

Constrained, growth will still be exponential, but with a longer doubling time, so we'll still have to put in the same measures to keep cases at 10,000 that we do at 1,000.

Except. Test, track and trace works *better* with lower numbers.

So to keep cases at 1,000 requires *less* restrictions than at 10,000.

Oh, and it will kill and disable 10x less people too.

Worldwide, the evidence seems pretty clear: countries with less cases have better economic outcomes.


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## tom73 (28 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> Isn't that more because working from home could kill town & city centres. Because those who would normally spend there have been missing for some time now.
> Some large local offices have been as low as 10% of normal staffing levels these last few months.



Equally we can't keep building or trying to prop up high streets that have been on shifting sand for years. All Covid has done is to speed up a total rethink which governments both local and national have been kicking the can down the street for years. 
Home workers for example still need services and the wider high street. But in new and different ways such as providing coworker space. 
Many companies are not coming back new start up's are not likely to sign up to office space any time soon if at all. 
So the problem is not going away anytime soon.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (28 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Equally we can't keep building or trying to prop up high streets that have been on shifting sand for years. All Covid has done is to speed up a total rethink which governments both local and national have been kicking the can down the street for years.
> Home workers for example still need services and the wider high street. But in new and different ways such as providing coworker space.
> Many companies are not coming back new start up's are not likely to sign up to office space any time soon if at all.
> So the problem is not going away anytime soon.


A modular buildings company I deal with took an order from a very large insurance company during lockdown for 50 Garden Offices. They'd found that they could manage quite well without the very expensive London office block and the garden offices were for key staff with gardens who could find room for them. I've heard similar stories from elsewhere so it might not be uncommon.


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## SpokeyDokey (28 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Equally we can't keep building or trying to prop up high streets that have been on shifting sand for years. All Covid has done is to speed up a total rethink which governments both local and national have been kicking the can down the street for years.
> Home workers for example still need services and the wider high street. But in new and different ways such as providing coworker space.
> Many companies are not coming *back new start up's are not likely to sign up to office space any time soon if at all.*
> So the problem is not going away anytime soon.



My wife works in the commercial property sector and this is certainly not the case here, Things have been quiet up until around 6 weeks ago and the situation is now completely different with properties being in high demand and with a faster than average time taken for leases being completed. As ever, many of the smaller high street properties are for new start-ups and, good to hear, they are being supported by the banks involved.


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## SkipdiverJohn (28 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> My wife works in the commercial property sector and this is certainly not the case here, Things have been quiet up until around 6 weeks ago and the situation is now completely different with properties being in high demand and with a faster than average time taken for leases being completed.



Are they renting at the previous rates PSF though, or are the landlords drumming up business by being less greedy and renting at a price that makes doing business viable for the tenant?


----------



## tom73 (28 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This seems bonkers whilst cases are rising. I'd be all in favour if we were on top of it.
> 
> Have these people ever been to a sports event? Are they expecting thousands of fans to sit quietly apart, stone cold sober and masked up??


Having been in charge of covering sporting events large and small it won't happen. 
Have they thought about the rest of what go's into event's ? Just going on the racers even in the cheep seats a good few get merry and shipped out. Which not just Hospitals can do without even now.


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## SpokeyDokey (28 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Are they renting at the previous rates PSF though, or are the landlords drumming up business by being less greedy and renting at a price that makes doing business viable for the tenant?



No, no reduced annual rental rates. No need as demand is high. Current ROI for the landlord is in the 8-12% range as it has been for ages. As an aside I think these rates a a veritable mickey-take but that's the nature of the sector. Usual negotiations around break clauses, reduced rent for the first few months, self repairing and insuring lease terms etc.


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## SpokeyDokey (28 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> It depends if you think wrecking the economy and suffering mass unemployment for years to come is a price worth paying to make the virus infection stats look good.
> Personally, I couldn't give a shoot how high the infection numbers get so long as they don't reach the point where they overwhelm the NHS capacity to deal with the most serious cases. The NHS didn't collapse when we were running at an official 5,000 a day infection count, and that was before the Nightingale field hospital contingency pretty much doubled intensive care capacity. So in reality, we in the UK could probably manage a 10,000 virus cases a day scenario without anything too disastrous resulting. All the time we are bumping along at around 1,000 cases a day we are just cruising.



Looks like the NHS are coping well in terms of bed usage for Covid patients which is currently operating way inside capacity. 

The quarterly NHS England update that I linked to a week or so back shows 599 beds (out of just under 100000 in total) are in use by Covid patients including 56 patients on mechanical ventilators. This information is included in the link below:

Current death rate data from NHS England (see link and sub-links below) up to 26 Aug is 151 deaths where Covid test proved positive and 49 where there was no positive test but Covid was mentioned on the death certificate. 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Current data in graphic form:


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## VelvetUnderpants (28 Aug 2020)

Could anyone please advise if it is at all possible to claim back money on a prebooked flight which now has to be cancelled due to the destination coming under the list of quarantined countries.

My partner was planning to fly to the Czech Republic on the 6th September to see her elderly mother who she has not seen since February, at the time of the booking it was fine to go but as of 04.00 on Saturday 29th if she was to go she will have to self isolate for 14 days on return. It is unlikely the NHS will give her that extra time off, so sadly it looks like she will have to cancel her flight.

Can she claim back the cost of her flight and train tickets as the destination country was ok to travel to at the time of booking, if so would she claim the refund back from ryanair or her insurance or does she have to accept she has lost her money.


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## Julia9054 (28 Aug 2020)

VelvetUnderpants said:


> Could anyone please advise if it is at all possible to claim back money on a prebooked flight which now has to be cancelled due to the destination coming under the list of quarantined countries.
> 
> My partner was planning to fly to the Czech Republic on the 6th September to see her elderly mother who she has not seen since February, at the time of the booking it was fine to go but as of 04.00 on Saturday 29th if she was to go she will have to self isolate for 14 days on return. It is unlikely the NHS will give her that extra time off, so sadly it looks like she will have to cancel her flight.
> 
> Can she claim back the cost of her flight and train tickets as the destination country was ok to travel to at the time of booking, if so would she claim the refund back from ryanair or her insurance or does she have to accept she has lost her money.


From my experience of travel insurance, you have to prove that you have tried to get the money back from the providers first. That would depend on the type of ticket purchased as to whether they are refundable of not. I had a bunch of train tickets for a rail trip across Europe booked - turned out some were refundable and some not. I hadn’t paid any attention when booking as I booked back in February (innocent times!). Low cost airlines will not usually refund unless they cancel the flight.
The ability to claim on travel insurance will depend on when the insurance was taken out and when the flights etc were booked. I expect most policies will have a “no coronavirus reasons” clause if things were booked or the policy was purchased after the pandemic was known about, unfortunately.


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## mjr (28 Aug 2020)

VelvetUnderpants said:


> Could anyone please advise if it is at all possible to claim back money on a prebooked flight which now has to be cancelled due to the destination coming under the list of quarantined countries.


The insurer can advise, but in general, you can only claim for things booked before mid-April when the WHO declared it a pandemic. After that, most insurers say you accepted the known risk. More at https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/n...-help-and-your-rights/#reinstatedrestrictions


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## mjr (28 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> It depends if you think wrecking the economy and suffering mass unemployment for years to come is a price worth paying to make the virus infection stats look good.


But most of the dying business had preexisting underlying conditions so they're not worth saving, are they?


----------



## VelvetUnderpants (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> The insurer can advise, but in general, you can only claim for things booked before mid-April when the WHO declared it a pandemic. After that, most insurers say you accepted the known risk. More at https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/n...-help-and-your-rights/#reinstatedrestrictions




I thought that may be the case. I will give the insurer a ring later today.


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## VelvetUnderpants (28 Aug 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> From my experience of travel insurance, you have to prove that you have tried to get the money back from the providers first. That would depend on the type of ticket purchased as to whether they are refundable of not. I had a bunch of train tickets for a rail trip across Europe booked - turned out some were refundable and some not. I hadn’t paid any attention when booking as I booked back in February (innocent times!). Low cost airlines will not usually refund unless they cancel the flight.
> The ability to claim on travel insurance will depend on when the insurance was taken out and when the flights etc were booked. I expect most policies will have a “no coronavirus reasons” clause if things were booked or the policy was purchased after the pandemic was known about, unfortunately.




Her insurance was taken out last year, I dont hold out much hope, but I will give her insurers a ring just incase.


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## tom73 (28 Aug 2020)

Masks in schools has become a school lesson in New Zealand in turn helping to promote public health.
God forbid we involve students in all of this. 
https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealth...mote-pandemic-protection-in-the-nz-community/


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## tom73 (28 Aug 2020)

VelvetUnderpants said:


> Her insurance was taken out last year, I dont hold out much hope, but I will give her insurers a ring just incase.


Pre covid then which look to have better outcomes. If the ticket was booked pre covid then again that may help.
As T and C's can't be changed retrospectively the main problem is it's her choice not to travel and not the FCO saying she can't.


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## SkipdiverJohn (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> But most of the dying business had preexisting underlying conditions so they're not worth saving, are they?



A high proportion of the population with chronic underlying medical conditions only have those conditions because of self-inflicted lifestyle choices. So no, I don't think it's worth destroying the economy and putting half the population out of work, just to save those who are only susceptible primarily as a result of a lifetime of abusing their own bodies through excessive food & drink consumption, smoking, or total lack of physical activity.
If I make myself vulnerable to severe illness because of my lifestyle, that's my problem, not everyone else's.


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## fossyant (28 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> A high proportion of the population with chronic underlying medical conditions only have those conditions because of self-inflicted lifestyle choices. So no, I don't think it's worth destroying the economy and putting half the population out of work, just to save those who are only susceptible primarily as a result of a lifetime of abusing their own bodies through excessive food & drink consumption, smoking, or total lack of physical activity.
> If I make myself vulnerable to severe illness because of my lifestyle, that's my problem, not everyone else's.



Fark me, what an attitude to others. Yes MIL is in a high risk group, yes mainly life style, but I'd personally not want anyone dead. It's a very nasty death. There is also the long term conditions otherwise healthy folk get from this. I have lots of colleagues who are in at risk groups - around 30%. My employer isn't requiring them to come into work, where they can work from home - they are juggling things around.


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## SkipdiverJohn (28 Aug 2020)

I have every sympathy with those who have genetic/inherited medical conditions that make catching any sort of nasty bug a risky happening. They didn't make a wrong choice, they were unlucky.
However, I have zero sympathy for those who have just sat on their fat arses getting ever fatter for decades, smoked like a chimney and fecked up their lungs, infected themselves with nasties via drug abuse or done their best to pickle their livers. I've got no time for the nanny state health fascists who try to tell everyone what to do either. I'm a libertarian, I believe we have the absolute right to do dumb things if we so choose, but we also have to accept the consequences of making dumb choices personally.


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## fossyant (28 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I have every sympathy with those who have genetic/inherited medical conditions that make catching any sort of nasty bug a risky happening. They didn't make a wrong choice, they were unlucky.
> However, I have zero sympathy for those who have just sat on their fat arses getting ever fatter for decades, smoked like a chimney and fecked up their lungs, infected themselves with nasties via drug abuse or done their best to pickle their livers. I've got no time for the nanny state health fascists who try to tell everyone what to do either. I'm a libertarian, I believe we have the absolute right to do dumb things if we so choose, but we also have to accept the consequences of making dumb choices personally.



I just hope you haven't anyone you care for that is at risk because of lifestyle choices and they die because they catch Covid. Unfortunately, it's not always these folk that will suffer, it's those with genetic conditions - how can you separate some of those. Also, obesity can and is caused by mental health problems, not just sitting there. 

It's a 'shite' attitude to take towards others. Because of 'people' not following therules, and pleasing themselves, we've got additional conditions in Gtr Manchester - where I live is the lowest infection rate, but we are locked down because of this 'libertarian' attitude some folk have - our IL's mental health is suffering badly as we can't even stand in the car prk of her nursing home and talk through a glass window. If she catches this, she will die - it's crap. Why sentence folk to death.


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## mjr (28 Aug 2020)

Several newspaper fronts today suggesting care home covid stats are being concealed for political reasons, to avoid nationalising the sector:


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## mjr (28 Aug 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> A high proportion of the population with chronic underlying medical conditions only have those conditions because of self-inflicted lifestyle choices. So no, I don't think it's worth destroying the economy and putting half the population out of work, just to save those who are only susceptible primarily as a result of a lifetime of abusing their own bodies through excessive food & drink consumption, smoking, or total lack of physical activity.
> If I make myself vulnerable to severe illness because of my lifestyle, that's my problem, not everyone else's.


A high proportion of the businesses with chronic underlying financial conditions only have those conditions because of self-inflicted business strategy choices. So I don't think it's worth destroying half the population, just to save those who are only susceptible primarily as a result of abusing their market, often through encouraging excessive food & drink consumption, smoking, or total lack of physical activity.
If I make myself vulnerable to liquidation because of my business plan, that's my problem, not everyone else's.

I don't agree with the nanny state business fascists who won't help people but want to prop up failing big businesses at any cost.


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## deptfordmarmoset (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> But most of the dying business had preexisting underlying conditions so they're not worth saving, are they?


Well, if you count mortality as a preexisting condition, none of us are worth saving either.


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## Joey Shabadoo (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> Several newspaper fronts today suggesting care home covid stats are being concealed for political reasons, to avoid nationalising the sector:
> View attachment 544019


My step-son works in a council care home. Some of the stories he's telling of what's been going on are frightening.


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Aug 2020)

skippy's discarding of a significant slice of the population is obviously repugnant, but also pragmatically dubious. 

Let's take obesity - characterised by skippy as a moral failing, and therefore due no sympathy. 

Obesity rates have rocketed over the past few decades. Does that mean that people suddenly started being born with moral failings that didn't exist in previous decades? Of course not. It was driven by a change in the environment people live in. Blaming individuals and putting them at risk of a deadly virus as a result is ridiculous. 

See also the Victorian obsession with deserving and undeserving poor, and the contemporary divide between scroungers and skivers.

And all this philosophical verbiage aside, skippy should reflect that essentially all over 75s have a pre existing condition of one sort or another.


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## marinyork (28 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yep yesterday was the highest since June. All this is at a time when viral load is low due to the measures in place and lot of luck. The more people that start seeing every thing is normal now. It's not going to stay down with no plan to really push to get cases to as close to zero as we can we. It's not looking great for winter.



Out and about this week I honestly think 50% of the population think it is back to normal and 50% are stuck indoors at home. Town and many areas had a much more back to normal feel than even two or three weeks ago.


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## deptfordmarmoset (28 Aug 2020)

Well, the waterproof trouser test was a complete failure because the sun came out. A very pleasant disappointment.


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## Flick of the Elbow (28 Aug 2020)

Just got an email from my club about clubruns resuming. Not only are the Scottish Govt now allowing clubruns of up to 30, from up to 30 households, they are also saying that they only need to physically distance before the run and after it but not during it. This is utter madness


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## marinyork (28 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> And all this philosophical verbiage aside, skippy should reflect that essentially all over 75s have a pre existing condition of one sort or another.



T cell effectiveness declines quite a lot after the age of 70. Even marathon running 70 year olds unfortunately are much more likely to get hospitalised with covid-19 or some die vs someone in their 20s, 30s or 40s with no conditions. The no underlying conditions means they have a much, much better chance though, to such an unbelievably high ratio in some cases that this is overlooked.


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## tom73 (28 Aug 2020)

marinyork said:


> Out and about this week I honestly think 50% of the population think it is back to normal and 50% are stuck indoors at home. Town and many areas had a much more back to normal feel than even two or three weeks ago.


Sounds about right i've seen the same if not more at times public health messaging look's to have all but gone the same way too.
Only this morning I was openly coughed at by a member of staff in tesco's and that's not the 1st time either. 
Still no word on when shielding kick's in again they look to have dropped the idea it was on "Pause"


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## mjr (28 Aug 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Just got an email from my club about clubruns resuming.  Not only are the Scottish Govt now allowing clubruns of up to 30, from up to 30 households, they are also saying that they only need to physically distance before the run and after it but not during it. This is utter madness


Not completely mad. It's outdoors and it's difficult to get very close for long on a bike. Plus keeping the population fit is a very good thing and it's probably safer than sweating in a gym or swimming in a pool.

Presumably govts have the data on whether clubruns have been outbreak sources yet: I don't know about Scotland, but there have been 8 weeks of clubruns of up to 6 in England so far.


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## Flick of the Elbow (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> it's difficult to get very close for long on a bike.


On a clubrun you are riding for many minutes at a time alongside a rider who is only an arm’s length away, effectively less if they are leaning in to hear a conversation. And worse, they are often having to speak loudly or even shout to be heard. And what happens to all the virus particles they are potentially spraying out ? If they don’t land on the rider next to them it will be the rider immediately behind that will ride into them.


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## SkipdiverJohn (28 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Let's take obesity - characterised by skippy as a moral failing, and therefore due no sympathy.
> 
> Obesity rates have rocketed over the past few decades. Does that mean that people suddenly started being born with moral failings that didn't exist in previous decades?



No, it's very simple really, people have just become extremely lazy over the last 20/30 years. They are simply not doing enough physical activity, either at work (sometimes because of technology) or in their private lives. They're not innocent "victims" of nasty right wing Tories or grasping big businesses, they're simply being lardarses and their obesity problem is something entirely of their own making.
A mate of mine got made redundant from a physically active job a year ago, but he's a piss head and he loves his food - much like me, but he drinks a bit more. Because he was no longer working off his grub & beer during the week, he put on over three stone in weight, and was a heart attack in waiting. Ironically he'd bought a hybrid bike a couple of years ago but then hardly ever rode it. I've been telling him to get the bike out for ages, eventually due to boredom during the lockdown he did and now rides regularly. He's lost most of the weight he put on and now he's back in the pub drinking as usual, but managing to at least not put any more weight on. If I just sat at a desk all day pushing buttons and took minicabs and buses everywhere instead of walking or riding, I would end up just as overweight and just as much at risk of developing other medical conditions myself. It's not the nasty Tory government to blame, it's not the supermarkets selling sugary drinks and fatty foods , it's not anyone else's fault - it's down to *us* for consuming far more calories than we burn.


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Aug 2020)

.


SkipdiverJohn said:


> No, it's very simple really, people have just become extremely lazy over the last 20/30 years. They are simply not doing enough physical activity, either at work (sometimes because of technology) or in their private lives. They're not innocent "victims" of nasty right wing Tories or grasping big businesses, they're simply being lardarses and their obesity problem is something entirely of their own making.
> A mate of mine got made redundant from a physically active job a year ago, but he's a piss head and he loves his food - much like me, but he drinks a bit more. Because he was no longer working off his grub & beer during the week, he put on over three stone in weight, and was a heart attack in waiting. Ironically he'd bought a hybrid bike a couple of years ago but then hardly ever rode it. I've been telling him to get the bike out for ages, eventually due to boredom during the lockdown he did and now rides regularly. He's lost most of the weight he put on and now he's back in the pub drinking as usual, but managing to at least not put any more weight on. If I just sat at a desk all day pushing buttons and took minicabs and buses everywhere instead of walking or riding, I would end up just as overweight and just as much at risk of developing other medical conditions myself. It's not the nasty Tory government to blame, it's not the supermarkets selling sugary drinks and fatty foods , it's not anyone else's fault - it's down to *us* for consuming far more calories than we burn.



Please explain *why* people suddenly became lazy.

*Why* do people choose to become "lardarses" now when they didn't in the past?

In your philosophy, somehow people suddenly became bad through no reason other than relapsing into personal moral turpitude.


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## CanucksTraveller (28 Aug 2020)

Skippy's argument is basically Chris Morris's "good AIDS versus bad AIDS" sketch from Brass Eye. 😄


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## Flick of the Elbow (28 Aug 2020)

Glad to hear that the Scottish Govt is maintaining their position that people should be working from home whenever possible.


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## mjr (28 Aug 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> On a clubrun you are riding for many minutes at a time alongside a rider who is only an arm’s length away, effectively less if they are leaning in to hear a conversation. And worse, they are often having to speak loudly or even shout to be heard. And what happens to all the virus particles they are potentially spraying out ? If they don’t land on the rider next to them it will be the rider immediately behind that will ride into them.


My arm is almost a metre long anyway! Does anyone lean in for 15 minutes (and I often forget that what tight formation riders tend to wear often impedes their hearing with extra wind noise) and do many clubruns not rotate at all? Good points loud speaking and spraying the rider behind, but won't people modify their behaviour a bit anyway and has any outbreak anywhere been linked to a clubrun or similar yet? gov.scot may be estimating that the benefits are worth the risk.


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## matticus (28 Aug 2020)

My take on the group-riding; how often do you notice the smell of sweat in a group? vs How often when queueing for coffee?

It's _not _risk-free; but I don't feel I'm being sprayed in the mouth with virions.


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## marinyork (28 Aug 2020)

Club runs are not nightclubs in Sardinia.


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## midlife (28 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Well the procedure from the hospital appears to be a negative test means back to work.



Just out of curiosity I had a look at what happens here if Occupational Health decide you have had a risk of exposure to COVID. It's Occupational Health that decides on your level of exposure / risk, not a line manager. That risk is assessed from exposure at work or information from Track and Trace. 

If staff are told by occupational health they are a *high risk contact* they must self isolate for 14 days. There is no exception to this rule. Even if the staff member has a covid test back as negative the 14 day isolation rule must be adhered to. Occupational Health will arrange a test prior to the staff member returning to work.

Just curious......


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## tom73 (28 Aug 2020)

midlife said:


> Just out of curiosity I had a look at what happens here if Occupational Health decide you have had a risk of exposure to COVID. It's Occupational Health that decides on your level of exposure / risk, not a line manager. That risk is assessed from exposure at work or information from Track and Trace.
> 
> If staff are told by occupational health they are a *high risk contact* they must self isolate for 14 days. There is no exception to this rule. Even if the staff member has a covid test back as negative the 14 day isolation rule must be adhered to. Occupational Health will arrange a test prior to the staff member returning to work.
> 
> Just curious......



Oh just think about the poor soul who has to tell theatre sister "we believe a member of staff contracted Covid working in your theatre area"
Wonder if they will draw lot's ?


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## Flick of the Elbow (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> gov.scot may be estimating that the benefits are worth the risk.


I bet the Scottish govt know nothing about clubruns. The regulations for each phase are generic, covering any structured club activity. It appears to be Scottish Cycling that are interpreting them into what they think they mean for cycling clubs.


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## Joey Shabadoo (28 Aug 2020)

Just messaged her. Apparently the entire shift with the infected nurse ran for another day after she had tested positive. My sister has been told it's safe for her to return as she was only in direct contact with the other nurse for an hour.

In other news, they have increasing numbers of Covid patients and they've had to re-open ICU for two Covid patients


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## kingrollo (28 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Just messaged her. Apparently the entire shift with the infected nurse ran for another day after she had tested positive. My sister has been told it's safe for her to return as she was only in direct contact with the other nurse for an hour.
> 
> In other news, they have increasing numbers of Covid patients and they've had to re-open ICU for two Covid patients



A certain poster should be along in just a moment.


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## mjr (28 Aug 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> I bet the Scottish govt know nothing about clubruns. The regulations for each phase are generic, covering any structured club activity. It appears to be Scottish Cycling that are interpreting them into what they think they mean for cycling clubs.


I don't really know where Scottish Cycling fit into the picture. Do Scottish Cycling have government-agency-appointed board members like British Cycling has?


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## PK99 (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> Not completely mad. It's outdoors and *it's difficult to get very close for long on a bike*.



Eh?

A tight club chain gang will be "bars touching" apart sideways and 30cm wheel gap.


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## Joey Shabadoo (28 Aug 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> On a clubrun you are riding for many minutes at a time alongside a rider who is only an arm’s length away, effectively less if they are leaning in to hear a conversation. And worse, they are often having to speak loudly or even shout to be heard. And what happens to all the virus particles they are potentially spraying out ? If they don’t land on the rider next to them it will be the rider immediately behind that will ride into them.



What? How the hell can people have a conversation over the wheezing, gasping, groaning, clicking knees and cracking hips?

Or is that just me?


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## mjr (28 Aug 2020)

PK99 said:


> A tight club chain gang will be "bars touching" apart sideways and 30cm wheel gap.


In their dreams!

But that mythical chain gang would also be rotating through and off, so not close to any rider for long at a time.

Still waiting to read about any chaingang outbreaks.


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## classic33 (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> *My arm is almost a metre long anyway! *Does anyone lean in for 15 minutes (and I often forget that what tight formation riders tend to wear often impedes their hearing with extra wind noise) and do many clubruns not rotate at all? Good points loud speaking and spraying the rider behind, but won't people modify their behaviour a bit anyway and has any outbreak anywhere been linked to a clubrun or similar yet? gov.scot may be estimating that the benefits are worth the risk.


That would place your hands below knee level whilst stood up straight.

Simple test for you.
Stand on one side of an internal door* with one arm on the other side. If your claim is true, metre long arms, your wrist should be past the far side of the door.

*Standard internal doors are approximately 2'6" wide. But even with 3' doors, you should easily get your fingers round the far edge.


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## tom73 (28 Aug 2020)

Lancet article pointing out with no clear definition for just what "recovery" from Covid is we can't properly assess morbidity. Leading to surveillance underestimating true Covid burden. 
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31823-7/fulltext


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## DCLane (28 Aug 2020)

Local lockdown lifted from next Wednesday in West Yorkshire _except_ in parts of Bradford, in Batley and in Dewsbury. No cases where I live but lots of cases about a mile away in the same ward. As a result of others' behaviour we're still restricted, although it'll not change much.

Locally we know who, where and why - but unfortunately non-compliance continues. And yes, the police have tried to enforce it but failed.


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## mjr (28 Aug 2020)

DCLane said:


> Local lockdown lifted from next Wednesday in West Yorkshire _except_ in parts of Bradford, in Batley and in Dewsbury. No cases where I live but lots of cases about a mile away in the same ward. As a result of others' behaviour we're still restricted, although it'll not change much.


If it's only about a mile away, by "no cases where I live" do you mean just in your house? 



> Locally we know who, where and why - but unfortunately non-compliance continues. And yes, the police have tried to enforce it but failed.


Failed how? Are they issuing fines and the offenders refusing to pay? It sounds like it's time they get a magistrate to read the riot act - or more usefully, start issuing quarantine orders, but as far as I've read, our wishy-washy ditherers in Westminster haven't done that anywhere yet.


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## DCLane (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> If it's only about a mile away, by "no cases where I live" do you mean just in your house?



By council ward where I live hasn't had cases for weeks with the exception of one care home.

The council ward a mile away (down the hill, over the river) has lots each week. There's no social distancing and when asked the general response was "if we catch it we catch it, if we die we die".



mjr said:


> Failed how? Are they issuing fines and the offenders refusing to pay? It sounds like it's time they get a magistrate to read the riot act - or more usefully, start issuing quarantine orders, but as far as I've read, our wishy-washy ditherers in Westminster haven't done that anywhere yet.



Very few if any fines issued from a police source. Police won't go in - they were forced out previously by the local community.

It's a self-managed area and police / officials aren't welcome.


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## Flick of the Elbow (28 Aug 2020)

mjr said:


> I don't really know where Scottish Cycling fit into the picture. Do Scottish Cycling have government-agency-appointed board members like British Cycling has?


It appears that Scottish Cycling is recognised by the Scottish Govt as the approved governing body for cycling in Scotland. An email from the local CTC group refers to “Scottish Cycling our governing body, approved by the Scottish Government”.


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## fossyant (28 Aug 2020)

DCLane said:


> By council ward where I live hasn't had cases for weeks with the exception of one care home.
> 
> The council ward a mile away (down the hill, over the river) has lots each week. There's no social distancing and when asked the general response was "if we catch it we catch it, if we die we die".
> 
> ...



We're back to normal next week too, but our friends in Oldham, who caused the whole GM lockdown are still under strict rules - not that anyone up there is following them.


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## icowden (29 Aug 2020)

DCLane said:


> Very few if any fines issued from a police source. Police won't go in - they were forced out previously by the local community.
> It's a self-managed area and police / officials aren't welcome.



Not only that but it has been suggested by @thesecretbarrister that the rules about Covid have changed so frequently and are so confused that any good solicitor or barrister will easily get a fine overturned.


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## Slick (29 Aug 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Just got an email from my club about clubruns resuming. Not only are the Scottish Govt now allowing clubruns of up to 30, from up to 30 households, they are also saying that they only need to physically distance before the run and after it but not during it. This is utter madness


I think the guidance isn't too bad. 
https://www.britishcycling.org.uk/s...ottish-Cycling-Coronavirus-COVID19-Guidance-0


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## SpokeyDokey (29 Aug 2020)

All's not well in Germany - Berlin coronavirus restrictions protests:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53959552


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## tom73 (29 Aug 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> All's not well in Germany - Berlin coronavirus restrictions protests:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53959552


Sound's like the far right and flat Earth brigade are having a day out.


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## classic33 (29 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> Gregg's in Leeds been hit with further positive results.
> 
> https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news...irus-outbreak-confirmed-leeds-greggs-18839668


There's a number of their shops shut locally. Shelves being cleared and bagged in one, with cleaning taking place in two more.


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## Joey Shabadoo (29 Aug 2020)

Outside my window just now. About 50 of them, no masks, no social distancing. Sounds like a Kensitas Club day out going by the amount of coughing going on.


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## tom73 (29 Aug 2020)

classic33 said:


> There's a number of their shops shut locally. Shelves being cleared and bagged in one, with cleaning taking place in two more.


Spotted when out our's round here have closed no word why but one was having a good old clean as I walk past.


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## Joey Shabadoo (29 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 544194
> 
> 
> Outside my window just now. About 50 of them, no masks, no social distancing. Sounds like a Kensitas Club day out going by the amount of coughing going on.



Ah. A four year old boy died of Covid in April. Today would have been his birthday and all his friends and neighbours have gathered to release balloons for him.


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## Slick (29 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 544194
> 
> 
> Outside my window just now. About 50 of them, no masks, no social distancing. Sounds like a Kensitas Club day out going by the amount of coughing going on.


Shame. We have cancelled a long standing weekend family gathering for that reason. We couldn't get an hotel to accepted our booking and someone suggested a garden party but it's just not worth the risk.


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## Slick (29 Aug 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Ah. A four year old boy died of Covid in April. Today would have been his birthday and all his friends and neighbours have gathered to release balloons for him.


That's different. I'm sure they will appreciate the importance of distancing.


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## stowie (29 Aug 2020)

Laurence Fox, after teaching everyone about the whole racism / white privilege thing so successfully has turned his attention to COVID :



Phew. For a moment there I thought we were mid-pandemic. Luckily Mr Fox can straighten it all out with a single tweet.


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## classic33 (29 Aug 2020)

tom73 said:


> Spotted when out our's round here have closed no word why but one was having a good old clean as I walk past.


One of their distribution depots has had a number of positive test results returned.


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## roubaixtuesday (29 Aug 2020)

stowie said:


> Laurence Fox, after teaching everyone about the whole racism / white privilege thing so successfully has turned his attention to COVID :
> 
> 
> 
> Phew. For a moment there I thought we were mid-pandemic. Luckily Mr Fox can straighten it all out with a single tweet.




What an absolute bellend.


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## Ming the Merciless (29 Aug 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What an absolute bellend.



Well he does own Fox News that bastion of truth


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## kingrollo (30 Aug 2020)

1700 - new cases today - 2nd wave here we come.


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## Flick of the Elbow (30 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> 1700 - new cases today - 2nd wave here we come.


Certainly looks like it. A couple of weeks ago here in Lothian we were getting 16 new cases in the previous week, now it’s up to 59. All the numbers are going the wrong way.


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## Ming the Merciless (30 Aug 2020)

Things are opening up, people aren’t socially distancing . It’s inevitable.


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## Flick of the Elbow (31 Aug 2020)

And things are about to get a whole lot worse once the universities open their doors again


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## kingrollo (31 Aug 2020)

If the numbers keep rising as they are the UK govt will be out of options and will forced to take drastic and controversial measures :-

They will have to change the way new infections are calculated.


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## Flick of the Elbow (31 Aug 2020)

Another big rise in the numbers again today. The easing of lockdown needs reversing urgently.


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## pawl (31 Aug 2020)

You only have to look at Whitby yesterday itwas rammed .God knows what it’s like today.


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## Adam4868 (31 Aug 2020)

I'd say this Bank holiday in Blackpool has been the busiest for at least the last 10 years.The last four weeks or so have been too.Went to Llandudno last week for a few days and same there.There might have been lockdowns in the surrounding areas,but there was nothing to stop people traveling outside that area.


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## Flick of the Elbow (31 Aug 2020)

from Sturgeon...


> I feel a greater sense of anxiety today than I have done at any time probably for the last couple of months


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## Slick (31 Aug 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Another big rise in the numbers again today. The easing of lockdown needs reversing urgently.


I think that's the last thing we need, just everyone following the rules would knock the spikes on the head.


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## Slick (31 Aug 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> from Sturgeon...


I listened to her today and it's more about people's behaviour and attitudes that concerned her.


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## midlife (31 Aug 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Another big rise in the numbers again today. The easing of lockdown needs reversing urgently.



Is that in Scotland? . 300 less in the UK than yesterday?


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## deptfordmarmoset (31 Aug 2020)

midlife said:


> Is that in Scotland? . 300 less in the UK than yesterday?


Bank holiday weekend figures.... I'd give it at least a day to see where the UK as a whole is now.


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## Flick of the Elbow (31 Aug 2020)

midlife said:


> Is that in Scotland? . 300 less in the UK than yesterday?


Yes it’s the Scottish figures I’m looking at


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## kingrollo (31 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> I think that's the last thing we need, just everyone following the rules would knock the spikes on the head.


I think we need to enforce the rules rather than just toss them out there and hope everyone falls into line.....its almost like self regulation...
The pubs aren't enforcing social distancing at all ...not sure they could even if they wanted to....
And the £10 meal thing .....is just packing people in .....-?????????


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## vickster (31 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> And the £10 meal thing .....is just packing people in .....-?????????


 I’ve used the deal a few times and in every establishment, I’ve been at least 6 feet from everyone except my companion and the adherence to Covid safe has been exemplary


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## fossyant (31 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think we need to enforce the rules rather than just toss them out there and hope everyone falls into line.....its almost like self regulation...
> The pubs aren't enforcing social distancing at all ...not sure they could even if they wanted to....
> And the £10 meal thing .....is just packing people in .....-?????????



There are too many folk that think - ball cocks to it all (including the anti-vaxxers etc). Personally, I don't want it/be a carrier then give it to my parents, or worse still, touch something that sends the virus into MIL in the Nursing Home (she asks us to get her stuff - no 3 day quaranteen on items going in ).


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## fossyant (31 Aug 2020)

vickster said:


> I’ve used the deal a few times and in every establishment, I’ve been at least 6 feet from everyone except my companion and the adherence to Covid safe has been exemplary



Same here - only used local businesses (actually 3 in Wales, and one at home). All have been great. I did check them out first though, and went at less busy times.

Not touching Wetherspoons anywhere. Filth pits.


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## vickster (31 Aug 2020)

fossyant said:


> Not touching Wetherspoons anywhere. Filth pits.


And not just since CV19 frankly!


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## Slick (31 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think we need to enforce the rules rather than just toss them out there and hope everyone falls into line.....its almost like self regulation...
> The pubs aren't enforcing social distancing at all ...not sure they could even if they wanted to....
> And the £10 meal thing .....is just packing people in .....-?????????


Sadly, you may be right but we all know it just can't happen. My sister called over the weekend and told me about one incident where a local who was working in Denmark, cambridge home for the weekend and spent all night in one pub and then tested positive the following morning which means he did the test then went out. There are a number of very unhappy people now looking for a word with him.


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## kingrollo (31 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> Sadly, you may be right but we all know it just can't happen. My sister called over the weekend and told me about one incident where a local who was working in Denmark, cambridge home for the weekend and spent all night in one pub and then tested positive the following morning which means he did the test then went out. There are a number of very unhappy people now looking for a word with him.


??????????

I meant if pubs are open - subject to social distancing. Then take action against those who make no effort to control the numbers in pubs.

Just sticking a few posters up and a few arrows on the floor isn't working IME


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## kingrollo (31 Aug 2020)

vickster said:


> I’ve used the deal a few times and in every establishment, I’ve been at least 6 feet from everyone except my companion and the adherence to Covid safe has been exemplary


I've used it 3 times. On the last 2 occasions someone has been seated within touching distance of me.
Went to an outdoor event Saturday- no outdoor bar - no social distancing at the indoor bar. 
Imo the uptick in cases has strong links to the re opening of pubs - and why ever we needed a scheme to pack people into pubs is beyond me.


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## vickster (31 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I've used it 3 times. On the last 2 occasions someone has been seated within touching distance of me.
> Went to an outdoor event Saturday- no outdoor bar - no social distancing at the indoor bar.
> Imo the uptick in cases has strong links to the re opening of pubs - and why ever we needed a scheme to pack people into pubs is beyond me.


Seems to be more due to lots of cases in factories. The numbers are very low in these parts, lots of pubs and restaurants. No factories


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## Slick (31 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> ??????????
> 
> I meant if pubs are open - subject to social distancing. Then take action against those who make no effort to control the numbers in pubs.
> 
> Just sticking a few posters up and a few arrows on the floor isn't working IME


I agree, but we can also vote with our feet as well. Don't frequent any business that doesn't take it seriously, including the restaurant you describe above.


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## kingrollo (31 Aug 2020)

Slick said:


> I agree, but we can also vote with our feet as well. Don't frequent any business that doesn't take it seriously, including the restaurant you describe above.


......or don't offer deals which directly lead to places being overcrowded.....


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## Slick (31 Aug 2020)

kingrollo said:


> ......or don't offer deals which directly lead to places being overcrowded.....


Or take some responsibility and don't go in to an overcrowded space.


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## classic33 (1 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> ......or don't offer deals which directly lead to places being overcrowded.....


Be mindful of using such deals. Allow them the chance to run the scheme under current regulations/restrictions.


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## slowmotion (1 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> ......or don't offer deals which directly lead to places being overcrowded.....


….or use some simple common sense and don't delegate your safety to people like Michael O'Leary and the Greek Tourist board.

You don't need to be a genius FFS.


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## Flick of the Elbow (1 Sep 2020)

Slick said:


> Or take some responsibility and don't go in to an overcrowded space.


Exactly. Which is why I have not yet been into a cafe, restaurant, pub, or on any public transport. My gym opens today but I’m giving that a wide berth too, they’ve agreed to keep my membership suspended for a further 3 months.


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## tom73 (1 Sep 2020)

We've been out twice and sat in once for a coffee and cake and once to eat out on a very short break away. 
Both it was clear as mud they'd done everything to make it safe including asking for face coverings to be used unless sat down eating. They'd also got the need for good ventilation spot on both also clearly displayed the risk assessments. Which having read them a lot of work had gone in going them. It was what we expected having used them before in the past. One's even paid to moved just for covid over the road to a bigger building so it can space everyone out with room to spare. Many placers still don't have a clue or don't care it's easy to spot and we keep walking. Sadly around here it's mostly avoid mode 

As for the gym they let you suspended for a month that ran out this mouth have seen what they are doing and the lack of information when they closed. Staff are not the best anyway and i've seen how they clean.Many members pre covid never cared a jot can't see them wanting to wipe every thing down never mind keeping your distance. It was just too many things out of my control to feel safe so I've cancelled it.


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## SpokeyDokey (1 Sep 2020)

vickster said:


> I’ve used the deal a few times and in every establishment, I’ve been at least 6 feet from everyone except my companion and the adherence to Covid safe has been exemplary



Ditto.


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## Slick (1 Sep 2020)

Glasgow, East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire now subject to enhanced control measures. 

Apparently, it's the young team meeting up for house parties causing the issue, so this has been stopped along with enhanced self isolation protocols. Hospital and care home visits have also been curtailed but pubs allowed to remain open. 

Hopefully they know what they are doing.


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## tom73 (1 Sep 2020)

View point from the BMJ on universities reopening and lessons that need learning from the US. It's not without risk and I can't see what's needed before opening coming anytime soon. 
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3365


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## Rezillo (1 Sep 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Exactly. Which is why I have not yet been into a cafe, restaurant, pub, or on any public transport. My gym opens today but I’m giving that a wide berth too, they’ve agreed to keep my membership suspended for a further 3 months.


Ditto. Also ditto for nearly all our friends and family in the 55 and upwards age group. I help out on a community group with over 40 members who are nearly all over 60 and have been trying to get their participation in outdoor activities. Hardly anyone wants to take part because they are still keeping themselves away from contact as far as possible.

I think it is one reason why hospital cases are low - enough people in vulnerable age groups are still isolating themselves to restrict transmission, with most cases falling in age groups where hospitalisation is a low risk. Whether that separation will last with the end of furlough and symptom-free children coming back from school and mixing with their grandparents is another matter.

Before lockdown Mrs R held exercise classes for people in care homes and community groups of older people. None of the care homes want a resumption yet and appear to be quite strict and effective in their controls.


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## pawl (1 Sep 2020)

I am well into the vunrable age group I don’t have any underlying medical conditions Up to this point I have only been into shops and Supermarkets when necessary The description about various premises being Covid 19 safe I don’t really understand.Can anywhere be truly safe

Common sense regarding the current situation appears to be in short supply within certain age groups.


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> View point from the BMJ on universities reopening and lessons that need learning from the US. It's not without risk and I can't see what's needed before opening coming anytime soon.
> https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3365



Makes sense to me. Brace for impact...


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## Adam4868 (1 Sep 2020)

I think the young have been brilliant and far from selfish.Lets be honest there the ones going to have to pay in the long run in all sorts of ways.
There's far too many mixed messages now.Its as if the whole country is having raves ! Go to any seaside town in the UK and you'll see zero social distancing.Went to the pub last night and there were a couple of betting slips to write your name and number on.Totally voluntary of course! The lock down ended for a lot of people a while ago and the rules are so complex who really gets them ?


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## tom73 (1 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> I think the young have been brilliant and far from selfish.Lets be honest there the ones going to have to pay in the long run in all sorts of ways.
> There's far too many mixed messages now.Its as if the whole country is having raves ! Go to any seaside town in the UK and you'll see zero social distancing.Went to the pub last night and there were a couple of betting slips to write your name and number on.Totally voluntary of course! The lock down ended for a lot of people a while ago and the rules are so complex who really gets them ?



That's the problem what public health message we did have be it a total mess has just all but gone. All we appear to get now is you must get a test and someone in a call centre. Will ask you to say home and who else do you think you've infected. Which is important for sure but by then it's too late. Even now unlike counties who get this have we had clear messaging on the basic's of transmission and what the risks are. It would save a lot of time and yet more economic trouble. No one sounds bothered about really pushing the numbers down and keeping them down. We've had plenty of time to push hard before winter but no it's all been go back to work , save pret and sod the NHS. Come winter something will have give and only time will tell if it go's the right way or not.


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## classic33 (1 Sep 2020)

When you have an elected official putting this kind of thing up





what hope is there.


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## deptfordmarmoset (1 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> When you have an elected official putting this kind of thing up
> View attachment 544918
> 
> what hope is there.


I'm no twitterer and I have no particular fondness for the LidlDems, but I can't find any trace of that screenshot post. It could be that he's implying that the ''Rik'' he's replying to cannot tell the difference between inhalation protection and exhalation protection. Or it could also be that he's a wazzock.


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## classic33 (1 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'm no twitterer and I have no particular fondness for the LidlDems, but I can't find any trace of that screenshot post. It could be that he's implying that the ''Rik'' he's replying to cannot tell the difference between inhalation protection and exhalation protection. * Or it could also be that he's a wazzock.*


They all seem to be wanting to be right/correct on this.


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Jamesdbaker1/status/1285982059106897925/photo/1


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## DaveReading (2 Sep 2020)

pawl said:


> Common sense regarding the current situation appears to be in short supply within certain age groups.



From the BMJ article referenced above:

"Behavioural research shows that risk taking peaks in young adulthood and that shaming them for risky behaviours is an ineffective public health strategy"


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## Flick of the Elbow (2 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> save pret and sod the NHS.


Yes that seems to be their order of priority


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## tom73 (2 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'm no twitterer and I have no particular fondness for the LidlDems, but I can't find any trace of that screenshot post. It could be that he's implying that the ''Rik'' he's replying to cannot tell the difference between inhalation protection and exhalation protection. Or it could also be that he's a wazzock.



No you have it right going on his twitter feed he's a first case one.


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## kingrollo (2 Sep 2020)

pre lockdown I attended a hospital gym at least 3 times a week. I am beginning to feel the effects of not going - the gym rarley had more than 5 people in even when operating before lockdown - apparently its even less now.

Got the revised guidelines from the gym which says "Face masks are not recommended whilst working out" - I can understand that for cardio - but Id be doing light weights - Would wearing a mask do more harm than good ?


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## icowden (2 Sep 2020)

I can't see why they would do any harm for cardio or weights unless they were severely restricting air flow. They might be uncomfy and annoying but that's about it. In terms of doing good, the major part of mask wearing is about not spreading rather than prevention of catching, so unless everyone wears masks there may ultimately not be much benefit.


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## Julia9054 (2 Sep 2020)

vickster said:


> I can't see why they would do any harm for cardio or weights unless they were severely restricting air flow. They might be uncomfy and annoying but that's about it. In terms of doing good, the major part of mask wearing is about not spreading rather than prevention of catching, so unless everyone wears masks there may ultimately not be much benefit.


Quite.
The guidance from my school is that masks are recommended in the corridors but not compulsory. We will see next week how many wear them but if it’s only a handful then there really is no point to it


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## PK99 (2 Sep 2020)

vickster said:


> Seems to be more due to lots of cases in factories. The numbers are very low in these parts, lots of pubs and restaurants. No factories



"It must be down to opening pubs..." is yet another COVID related example of confirmation bias which is one of the depressing things about so many COVID views - folks took a position early on and now seek to defend it and are very selective in the information they seek and how they interpret it.


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## Julia9054 (2 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> "It must be down to opening pubs..." is yet another COVID related example of confirmation bias which is one of the depressing things about so many COVID views - folks took a position early on and now seek to defend it and are very selective in the information they seek and how they interpret it.


My year 7s can tell you that when you do an investigation, you change only one thing and keep confounding variables constant.
The government opened lots of things at once. With no effective test and trace system in place, we can’t say with any confidence which is causing the uptick in cases


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## PK99 (2 Sep 2020)

DaveReading said:


> From the BMJ article referenced above:
> 
> "Behavioural research shows that risk taking peaks in young adulthood and that shaming them for risky behaviours is an ineffective public health strategy"



No shoot Sherlock! Who could have known such a thing?!


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## PK99 (2 Sep 2020)

The problem wrt young people and COVID rules is that, demonstrably, the risk* TO *them is very small. The issue is that the risk* FROM* them if they are carrying the virus asymptomatically is large.

That is a difficult message to get across.


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## kingrollo (2 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> "It must be down to opening pubs..." is yet another COVID related example of confirmation bias which is one of the depressing things about so many COVID views - folks took a position early on and now seek to defend it and are very selective in the information they seek and how they interpret it.



If being crowded indoors is a transmission route - that from what I have seen that would be a factor.


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## kingrollo (2 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> The problem wrt young people and COVID rules is that, demonstrably, the risk* TO *them is very small. The issue is that the risk* FROM* them if they are carrying the virus asymptomatically is large.
> 
> That is a difficult message to get across.


Have to be honest it wouldn't have cut it with me when I was young.


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## PK99 (2 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If being crowded indoors is a transmission route - that from what I have seen that would be a factor.




We made good just of EOTHO and found the COVID precautions in each and every pub and restaurant we used to be very good. 

Fewer tables, fellow punters a decent distance away. Waiter service to tables, even if selected at the bar - in several, no contact by Waiter with the drinks they were bringing on a tray. etc etc


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## kingrollo (2 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> We made good just of EOTHO and found the COVID precautions in each and every pub and restaurant we used to be very good.
> 
> Fewer tables, fellow punters a decent distance away. Waiter service to tables, even if selected at the bar - in several, no contact by Waiter with the drinks they were bringing on a tray. etc etc



Thats good to hear - and that was my experience at first. But here in the west midlands thats not what Ive seen over the past week or so. One pub the bar was operating totally as normal - no Q then wait to be called - or people standing 2m apart. - I even seen someone told off for taking photos (presumably as pub was worried about these circulating on line)


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## marinyork (2 Sep 2020)

Pubs are highly visible places. Most of us have little idea of what is going on in peoples' homes, it's basically cross your fingers.

The pubs one, if you're going to moan about pubs at least do it properly. When I travel past pubs I see a lot of people 50s-70s. Same in cafes. Same in restaurants. People under 25 are convening in large groups in parks and other outdoor places. I suspect there may be indoor household mixing a lot based on what people have said.

A lot of people say exactly what some of the people on this thread do, then when a person who may judge them is out of earshot, they'll say they have been on holiday, to the salon, to large shopping centres, eating out regularly etc. I'm all right Jack. The virus is always other peoples' fault and other people should be careful so I can do whatever I want. I've seen so much of this the last month. People need to stop doing this and limiting contact a bit and others doing a bit more than they are.


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## kingrollo (2 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Pubs are highly visible places. Most of us have little idea of what is going on in peoples' homes, it's basically cross your fingers.
> 
> The pubs one, if you're going to moan about pubs at least do it properly. When I travel past pubs I see a lot of people 50s-70s. Same in cafes. Same in restaurants. People under 25 are convening in large groups in parks and other outdoor places. I suspect there may be indoor household mixing a lot based on what people have said.
> 
> A lot of people say exactly what some of the people on this thread do, then when a person who may judge them is out of earshot, they'll say they have been on holiday, to the salon, to large shopping centres, eating out regularly etc. I'm all right Jack. The virus is always other peoples' fault and other people should be careful so I can do whatever I want. I've seen so much of this the last month. People need to stop doing this and limiting contact a bit and others doing a bit more than they are.



How do you moan about a pub 'Properly' ?


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## marinyork (2 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> How do you moan about a pub 'Properly' ?



If people need to get stuff off their chest and it helps, by all means. But people will be saying the same thing every week. Is it good for us?

Out there it's normal now. A lot of still WFH, some things closed but on the whole it's normal. Pubs and restaurants are packed, people are standing a bit further apart and having to wait, but on the whole remarkably similar to normal.

It isn't young people packing out pubs, it's all ages. That's because things are back to normal, largely.

Pubs will spread covid, but so will offices, factories, secondary schools, colleges, universities and a few other things. It's going to be a very long autumn and winter and we're barely started.

Unfortunately there's no way of enforcing good pubs and bad pubs, just like there isn't with workplaces.


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## kingrollo (2 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> If people need to get stuff off their chest and it helps, by all means. But people will be saying the same thing every week. Is it good for us?
> 
> Out there it's normal now. A lot of still WFH, some things closed but on the whole it's normal. Pubs and restaurants are packed, people are standing a bit further apart and having to wait, but on the whole remarkably similar to normal.
> 
> ...



Well I am 57 - my days of going to pubs full of youngsters have sadly gone. I would agree its not just youngsters packing out pubs.

Still not sure what complaining about a pub "properly" means


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## fossyant (2 Sep 2020)

I'm just awaiting the workplace spikes. It's coming. I'm WFH as back office Uni staff, but I can see some of our 'class group bubbles' having to self isolate in the next few months - even with the best plans, one group test's positive, lecturer may also have to self isolate, and any of the other groups they teach. Whilst the Uni buildings and classes can be safely controlled, what happens back in their student accommodation, who knows ! I suspect there will be a fair amount of this going on.


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## Flick of the Elbow (2 Sep 2020)

My biggest issue with my gym is that it is attached to a university. Gyms are considered high risk in themselves, but when you also add in young people arriving from all over the UK and quite a few from the Far East, it’s a worrying combination.


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## tom73 (2 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> pre lockdown I attended a hospital gym at least 3 times a week. I am beginning to feel the effects of not going - the gym rarley had more than 5 people in even when operating before lockdown - apparently its even less now.
> 
> Got the revised guidelines from the gym which says "Face masks are not recommended whilst working out" - I can understand that for cardio - but Id be doing light weights - Would wearing a mask do more harm than good ?



No it's not going to do any harm at all it's often used by the init mask brigade that they being about Hypoxia which is total fairy cakes. 
If you feel you want to wear one than do so. A growing amount of studies are pointing to some level of protection to the wearer and it's not just a one way thing. How much is still open to debate. As most of the hospital estate require masks to be worn it's odd they leave some areas out. It sounds like if you time it right you'd be the one in away which is even better the key is the level ventilation provided and the cleaning measures they have in place.


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## matticus (2 Sep 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> My biggest issue with my gym is that it is attached to a university. Gyms are considered high risk in themselves, but when you also add in young people arriving from all over the UK and quite a few from the Far East, it’s a worrying combination.


At Uni we used to get "2nd week flu" (although usually just a common cold). It was an established phenomenon - all the staff confirmed it.


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## Flick of the Elbow (2 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> At Uni we used to get "2nd week flu" (although usually just a common cold). It was an established phenomenon - all the staff confirmed it.


That’s why I’m giving it until the end of November before deciding whether to go back or just to cancel.


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## tom73 (2 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> If people need to get stuff off their chest and it helps, by all means. But people will be saying the same thing every week. Is it good for us?
> 
> Out there it's normal now. A lot of still WFH, some things closed but on the whole it's normal. Pubs and restaurants are packed, people are standing a bit further apart and having to wait, but on the whole remarkably similar to normal.
> 
> ...



Which was always going to be the big problem the guidelines re just too wooly and too easy to make fit. Without enforcement it's always going to hard to control. A few bottles of hand gel , a bit of tape and move a few chairs around and off you go. Some placers it's clear they have put the work in and I'd use them. But too many just don't care as long as they can open.So much of the effort is on dealing with outbreaks and little on controlling cases before they happen. We can open things up but in a controlled way with the right measures in place and kept in place. Sadly all we get is it's all ok and safe to go back to doing things. With public health information and the need to keep safe now nothing more than a foot note. Like you say this is not over by a long way and a bumpy road is coming. Even the talk of the biggest flu jab ever is looking just talk as many now look like waiting till December for a jab.


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## kingrollo (2 Sep 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> That’s why I’m giving it until the end of November before deciding whether to go back or just to cancel.


Student ? or lecturer ?

IMO you would bonkers as a student to cancel. Most of the transmission I would have thought would occur in fringe activities outside of uni - be careful and you should be ok.

All IMO of course. My lad is going back for his final year.


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## Flick of the Elbow (2 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Student ? or lecturer ?
> 
> IMO you would bonkers as a student to cancel. Most of the transmission I would have thought would occur in fringe activities outside of uni - be careful and you should be ok.
> 
> All IMO of course. My lad is going back for his final year.


No, as stated a few posts above, I’m referring to my gym membership. The gym is attached to the university so most of its users are students or lecturers. But at £30 a month it’s good value for us non university types too.


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## RoadRider400 (2 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> pre lockdown I attended a hospital gym at least 3 times a week. I am beginning to feel the effects of not going - the gym rarley had more than 5 people in even when operating before lockdown - apparently its even less now.
> 
> Got the revised guidelines from the gym which says "Face masks are not recommended whilst working out" - I can understand that for cardio - but Id be doing light weights - Would wearing a mask do more harm than good ?



Light weights implies high reps and thats reliant on your cardiovascular system.

Plus masks are generally to protect other people. A mask will not prevent you breathing in virus particles unless its an N95 mask and I dont think its wise to do exercise in such a mask. Nor will a mask stop you picking up the virus on your hands. Keep away from other people as much as possible and thoroughly clean your hands after, and leave the mask at home.

Alternatively if you are only doing light weights why not buy some on Ebay and train at home?


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## pawl (2 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Thats good to hear - and that was my experience at first. But here in the west midlands thats not what Ive seen over the past week or so. One pub the bar was operating totally as normal - no Q then wait to be called - or people standing 2m apart. - I even seen someone told off for taking photos (presumably as pub was worried about these circulating on line)




Just seen a photograph On the Leicestershire Live website of parents outside of a school all crammed together One parent commented it was like a cattle pen,


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## Flick of the Elbow (2 Sep 2020)

pawl said:


> Just seen a photograph On the Leicestershire Live website of parents outside of a school all crammed together One parent commented it was like a cattle pen,


Yes that’s been happening here too


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## SpokeyDokey (2 Sep 2020)

Demand rebounding for Rolls Royce:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53995886

Echoes a few conversations I have had in the last 10 days or so with 4 business owner friends (commercial property, carpet supply, IT infrastructure supplier and candle maker) with work forces ranging from 12 to over 160 - all are, apparently, now running flat out.


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## Sterlo (2 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Demand rebounding for Rolls Royce:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53995886
> 
> Echoes a few conversations I have had in the last 10 days or so with 4 business owner friends (commercial property, carpet supply, IT infrastructure supplier and candle maker) with work forces ranging from 12 to over 160 - all are, apparently, now running flat out.


Would agree with this, the company I work for has just had a record month for sales and we're struggling to get a lot of supplies.


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## SpokeyDokey (2 Sep 2020)

Sterlo said:


> Would agree with this, the company I work for has just had a record month for sales and we're struggling to get a lot of supplies.



We've just ordered a new car and the dealership that we dealt with are also extremely busy.

My wife works in commercial property and demand for high street shops and industrial units is very strong - started picking up around 4 weeks or so ago.

Builders are virtually impossible to get hold of at the moment too according to several friends of ours who are wanting some fairly high value work carried out on their homes. They are being quoted earliest available dates of well into next year.


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## johnblack (2 Sep 2020)

Sterlo said:


> Would agree with this, the company I work for has just had a record month for sales and we're struggling to get a lot of supplies.


There's has been huge demand, some pent up, but mostly genuine incremental in my company. Also a friend runnning a company supplying high end automotive and racing fabrication has been as busy as ever. Long may it continue.


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## Flick of the Elbow (2 Sep 2020)

I wonder how much new building demand has been created by lockdown and working from home, to build garden rooms and home office conversions/extensions.


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## marinyork (2 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> I'm just awaiting the workplace spikes. It's coming. I'm WFH as back office Uni staff, but I can see some of our 'class group bubbles' having to self isolate in the next few months - even with the best plans, one group test's positive, lecturer may also have to self isolate, and any of the other groups they teach. Whilst the Uni buildings and classes can be safely controlled, what happens back in their student accommodation, who knows ! I suspect there will be a fair amount of this going on.



It will happen. It's just better than it happening in an open plan office in a building with >1000 people working, which is precisely what happened in March at my uni. They were one of the early detected cases. 

Student accommodation hopefully they'll be a pragmatic attempt at testing.


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## marinyork (2 Sep 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> No, as stated a few posts above, I’m referring to my gym membership. The gym is attached to the university so most of its users are students or lecturers. But at £30 a month it’s good value for us non university types too.



There are a lot of gyms touting for business right now. As with pubs, there seems to be a lot of variability in what's going on there. 

My gym has banned groups so I'm looking for another one. Some gyms having 1/2 people going in at certain times. Others very busy.


----------



## tom73 (2 Sep 2020)

So lockdown lifting for areas of Manchester come in at midnight and now the government has brought the back. local lockdowns are messy enough and hard enough to get people to buy into them. Without this sort of ball's up.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (2 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> So lockdown lifting for areas of Manchester come in at midnight and now the government has brought the back. local lockdowns are messy enough and hard enough to get people to buy into them. Without this sort of ball's up.



Real time: things change. We need to get used to it and it's not necessarily a balls up.


----------



## marinyork (2 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Real time: things change. We need to get used to it and it's not necessarily a balls up.



It depends where you look at. France and Spain are both in small second waves, but there cases climbed relatively slowly over fair chunk of time.

It's also not clear how much can be done about that - France supposedly has the highest percentage of people physically back at work.


----------



## tom73 (2 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Real time: things change. We need to get used to it and it's not necessarily a balls up.



Not really the figures did not add up before they changed it. Areas with low numbers had to carry on and areas with high numbers had restrictions lifted. It's true things can and do change quickly but the governments track record is not exactly quick to acted.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (2 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> It depends where you look at. France and Spain are both in small second waves, but there cases climbed relatively slowly over fair chunk of time.
> 
> It's also not clear how much can be done about that - France supposedly has the highest percentage of people physically back at work.



Not sure of your point there tbh.

***

Specifically the Manchester decision:

A decision was made based on the available facts at the time and the decision was to be enacted at a specific time.

Prior to that specific time the facts changed and the decision was (wisely) reversed.

I'm not sure how that can be described as a balls up.

What should have been done instead?

Boris/Tories - damned if they do, damned if they don't.

It's all right Burnham banging on about chaos but how about Burnham & Co reacting a bit faster and more heavily on the localised incidents that have led to the uplift in figures?

***

@marinyork Not having a toot at you btw.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (2 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Not really the figures did not add up before they changed it. Areas with low numbers had to carry on and areas with high numbers had restrictions lifted. It's true things can and do change quickly but the governments track record is not exactly quick to acted.



But even when they do act quickly it's condemned as a balls up. They can't win.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> A decision was made based on the available facts at the time



Indeed, the relevant facts taken into consideration being the views of the local Conservative MPs, not those of local public health, and not the infection rates, which were higher than some authorities who would have stayed under the measures. 

This became untenable with further increases, but was always illogical and expedient, not evidence based.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> But even when they do act quickly it's condemned as a balls up. They can't win.



I'm really struggling to think of many instances where they've acted quickly. 

The only one I can think of is the current policy of rapid quarantine of countries with rising rates. 

That has my support. 

Perhaps you have other examples in mind...


----------



## tom73 (2 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> But even when they do act quickly it's condemned as a balls up. They can't win.


If only they did at quickly when it matters this is more a u-turn than anything else. No doubt they will wheel out Dido to give some waffly statement as to why the case numbers magically went up.


----------



## tom73 (2 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm really struggling to think of many instances where they've acted quickly.
> 
> The only one I can think of is the current policy of rapid quarantine of countries with rising rates.
> 
> ...



What about the way they quickly acted at ditching the steady as she go's plan to opening up. Or the quick way the virus threat level idea got dropped.


----------



## Julia9054 (2 Sep 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> I wonder how much new building demand has been created by lockdown and working from home, to build garden rooms and home office conversions/extensions.


And chicken coops. Everyone is buying chickens apparently!


----------



## tom73 (2 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> And chicken coops. Everyone is buying chickens apparently!


Yep rehoming placers can't keep up sane with breeders some have been cleared out. Some placers have even had birds stolen on mass.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> What about the way they quickly acted at ditching the steady as she go's plan to opening up. Or the quick way the virus threat level idea got dropped.



Yeah, thinking about it, they do change their slogans a lot. What's the current one "_Back to work, save Pret, catch Covid_"?


----------



## tom73 (2 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Yeah, thinking about it, they do change their slogans a lot. What's the current one "_Back to work, save Pret, catch Covid_"?


If only you'd stayed alert you'd know what this week's one is


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (2 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm really struggling to think of many instances where they've acted quickly.
> 
> The only one I can think of is the current policy of rapid quarantine of countries with rising rates.
> 
> ...


Makes me think it's someone else making the decisions about other countries. Someone competent.


----------



## tom73 (2 Sep 2020)

Study finds enforced face coverings associated with reduced face-touching behaviors. Which may help with control of covid
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/ja...ferral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=072920


----------



## johnblack (3 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> It depends where you look at. France and Spain are both in small second waves, but there cases climbed relatively slowly over fair chunk of time.
> 
> It's also not clear how much can be done about that - France supposedly has the highest percentage of people physically back at work.


"White collar" 37% in the UK have returned to the office, compared with more than three-quarters in Germany, Spain and Italy and 84% of employees in France.


----------



## tom73 (3 Sep 2020)

Anyone know what the word is on different testing methods ? It's all gone a bit quiet even Hancock has stopped talking about the next big thing.


----------



## icowden (3 Sep 2020)

Yes - you ring up for a test, tell them you live in Surrey and they suggest going to Cardiff so you think **gger that for a game of soldiers...


----------



## marinyork (3 Sep 2020)

johnblack said:


> "White collar" 37% in the UK have returned to the office, compared with more than three-quarters in Germany, Spain and Italy and 84% of employees in France.



Yep and the figures were originally quoted quite some time ago and haven't changed much to the end of last week when it was being discussed again.


----------



## johnblack (3 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Yep and the figures were originally quoted quite some time ago and haven't changed much to the end of last week when it was being discussed again.


I've been talking to a senior HR figure for a large organisation this morning about the return to the office. Certain amount of people, probably about 35% have returned, but some who asked to come back are now asking to return to working from home because they hate the sterile and distanced way of working. They missed the office while at home, but the office isn't like it was previously and they see little point in being there until it returns to normal. These tend to be people who work in smaller teams, rather than the bigger customer facing parts of the business who don't get a choice and have contact with others all day.

I get that, the office can be a really social place, but if you are in a form of lockdown while your there, you might as well do that from your home.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone know what the word is on different testing methods ? It's all gone a bit quiet even Hancock has stopped talking about the next big thing.


Oh no he hasn't.....

A new £500m investment into 20 minute test announced today.........for what it's worth !!!!


----------



## tom73 (3 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Oh no he hasn't.....
> 
> A new £500m investment into 20 minute test announced today.........for what it's worth !!!!


Yes a trial in 3 areas heard him bang on about it. I doubt it will go well and most likely cost 3 times it needs to. The other thing he was sounding smug about was the fact case numbers are leaving off. Which is as good has it get’s we never get past that. 
In the mean time the current system is fighting to keep up. But Dido has said she’s very sorry so that ok then.


----------



## kingrollo (3 Sep 2020)

Am I correct... if you die more than 28 days after testing positive for Covid you don't count on the stats ?

Tell me I m wrong - because that's feckin ridiculous ! ....it would seem the average recovery is around 3 weeks....so if you take a turn for the worst - you can easily go past 28 days before crockin it ?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Sep 2020)

.


kingrollo said:


> Am I correct... if you die more than 28 days after testing positive for Covid you don't count on the stats ?
> 
> Tell me I m wrong - because that's feckin ridiculous ! ....it would seem the average recovery is around 3 weeks....so if you take a turn for the worst - you can easily go past 28 days before crockin it ?



It's correct but it does make sense. 

At the start of the outbreak, every death of someone testing positive counted as a coronavirus death. Which is reasonable, as the number of deaths being down to some other cause was very low, given the total cases were very low. 

Now, however, there are over 300 000 people who've tested positive, most of them many months ago. Deaths in this population are very unlikely to be covid related overall, and there will be quite a lot, just because it's a large number of people. 

A 28 day cutoff is arbitrary, but not daft.


----------



## mjr (4 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> If only they did at quickly when it matters this is more a u-turn than anything else. No doubt they will wheel out Dido to give some waffly statement as to why the case numbers magically went up.


reminds me of

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9EvAL9OQos


----------



## mjr (4 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Am I correct... if you die more than 28 days after testing positive for Covid you don't count on the stats ?
> 
> Tell me I m wrong


It depends which stat and whether England, Scotland, ...

More detail in More or Less: Behind the Stats: Hawaiian Pizza, obesity and a second wave? http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08ncr88

Edit to add: there's a bit more in the next episode. England moved its cutoffs.


----------



## mjr (4 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Study finds enforced face coverings associated with reduced face-touching behaviors. Which may help with control of covid
> https://jamanetwork.com/journals/ja...ferral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=072920


Shame no-one is enforcing them in England then, isn't it?


----------



## kingrollo (4 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> 
> It's correct but it does make sense.
> ...



So you test positive for COVID - never recover - but limp on for 29 days before dying - and you don't count as a COVID death. That can't be right.


----------



## tom73 (4 Sep 2020)

K the number no-one talks about and why it matters. 
https://theconversation.com/is-the-k-number-the-new-r-number-what-you-need-to-know-140286

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/overdispersion-from-outbreaksize.html
~20% of infected people (super-spreaders) are responsible for ~80% of transmission. Around 50% are asymptomatic. 

So basically allowing more options to mix and interact like schools where face coverings are not recommend is just a policy of cross your fingers and hope. Sadly I've given up hope of truly controlling this virus. The idea we are even trying to eliminate it well that ship sailed long ago.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Sep 2020)

I think looking for a "right" number is probably mistaken. It's certainly more meaningful than counting all deaths however long after a positive test.

There are several different measures, notably excess deaths as well as this stat, and they need to be taken in totality.


----------



## tom73 (4 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So you test positive for COVID - never recover - but limp on for 29 days before dying - and you don't count as a COVID death. That can't be right.



Over all excess death rate matter more and show's a much better picture. But it's not a simple catchy media snap shot which is what governments like have. Counties are free to set the cut off as no international agreed standard is in place. I believe our cut off is a lot longer than some. 
Meanwhile New Zealand has just sadly had it's first covid death since May. Now that's new's we can only dream of seeing.


----------



## tom73 (4 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Shame no-one is enforcing them in England then, isn't it?


More a case of the one's who can wear one not giving a fig about the health of others and just need to get a grip.


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## tom73 (4 Sep 2020)

SAGE aren't holding out much hope for universities staying open much past November and not without large outbreaks around Christmas and then in the New Year. They don't sound sold on Test and Trace being up to the job to control any university outbreaks
https://assets.publishing.service.g...mission_Associated_with_Higher_Education_.pdf


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## DCLane (4 Sep 2020)

@tom73 - mine's doing very little face-to-face teaching / contact although there's nothing stopping students being in groups.

It'll mean a significant increase in cases but, as they're in their own groups, possibly little transfer outside these.


----------



## fossyant (4 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> SAGE aren't holding out much hope for universities staying open much past November and not without large outbreaks around Christmas and then in the New Year. They don't sound sold on Test and Trace being up to the job to control any university outbreaks
> https://assets.publishing.service.g...mission_Associated_with_Higher_Education_.pdf



Yup. That's why us back office lot have been told to stay away to keep going.


----------



## classic33 (4 Sep 2020)

New 6th Form College is set to open next week, with 500 pupils out of an expected 600. Right in the town centre.


----------



## fossyant (4 Sep 2020)

We have a massive risk assessment to do if going into work. Too much bother for a day a month at month end (I'm in Finance). My colleague's mum is a worrier, and possibly at risk, so not worth it.


----------



## tom73 (4 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> @tom73 - mine's doing very little face-to-face teaching / contact although there's nothing stopping students being in groups.
> 
> It'll mean a significant increase in cases but, as they're in their own groups, possibly little transfer outside these.


Some though are hell bent on getting them in come what sole focus is the money. If it's not technical, science or health related I see little point in having face to face teaching. You can have all the controls in place on site. But you can't control off site and meeting up in the main time. With test and trace no way near up to the job it's going to hard to control small outbreaks so they don't turn nasty.


----------



## IaninSheffield (4 Sep 2020)




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## Ming the Merciless (4 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> New 6th Form College is set to open next week, with 500 pupils out of an expected 600. Right in the town centre.



At least they will all be able to walk there


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## classic33 (4 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> At least they will all be able to walk there


Nearest carpark is 200 yards away, and they charge.


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## Ming the Merciless (4 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Nearest carpark is 200 yards away, and they charge.



No UK town is so big it can’t be traversed on foot or bike


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## marinyork (5 Sep 2020)

Went inside a pub last night for the first time. Apart from track and trace it was completely normal. Just add people being 30cm farther apart than in February. None of the staff were wearing masks, people generally not keeping their distance. It was packed out with people aged 50+.

It was a pleasant experience, but not one I'll be doing that often as well as it being a country pub and a distance away. I was with one other person.


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## Joey Shabadoo (5 Sep 2020)

Had to go to the Health Centre yesterday to get a prescription for Mrs S. Door manned by a volunteer who vetted everyone. For the prescription, she took my details then went inside to fetch it so I didn't have to go in unnecessarily. Very good practice I thought. Whilst she was waiting on it being written up, a woman arrived with her teenage daughter for an appointment at the minor injuries clinic. Before she escorted them in she asked them to put on masks.

"Tchhh, do we have to?" said the mother with a disgusted look.
"Yes, everyone has to wear a mask"
"Well, we forgot ours but we'll bring them next time"
"If you wait here I'll fetch you some. Can you clean your hands at the sanitising station there please?" said the volunteer, pointing to the table with the alcohol gels and wipes before going off to get some masks.
The mother grudgingly gave her hands a quick wipe using the barest minimum of gel but told her daughter not to.
I missed the start of the sentence but she finished off with "... not with *your* skin"
When the volunteer handed them both the blue paper masks it was quickly clear that they had never used one before and they had to be shown before they were escorted inside.

Seriously?


----------



## Rusty Nails (5 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Went inside a pub last night for the first time. Apart from track and trace it was completely normal. Just add people being 30cm farther apart than in February. None of the staff were wearing masks, people generally not keeping their distance. It was packed out with people aged 50+.
> 
> It was a pleasant experience, but not one I'll be doing that often as well as it being a country pub and a distance away. I was with one other person.



I will confess to have being going to my local once a week to meet up with three friends since it re-opened and not keeping to the 2m distancing - probably less than 1m, including at the bar. Nobody, staff included, wearing masks. Plenty of hand sanitiser on the tables and bar and card payment only. Similar distances in meeting other friends at the cafe or coffee shop on bike rides.

I wear masks in shops/banks etc, and try to maintain the 2m, and am diligent on the hand-washing regime, but my strict adherence to the recommendations at the start of the lockdown has definitely weakened, either through complacency or stupidity, or both.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Went inside a pub last night for the first time. Apart from track and trace it was completely normal. Just add people being 30cm farther apart than in February. None of the staff were wearing masks, people generally not keeping their distance. It was packed out with people aged 50+.
> 
> It was a pleasant experience, but not one I'll be doing that often as well as it being a country pub and a distance away. I was with one other person.



Might have been 40+, some in their 30s look in their 50s, some in their 50s look in their 30s. Hard to tell without asking each person.


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## Julia9054 (5 Sep 2020)

My local pub is encouraging you to book a table via email. You can just turn up but not guaranteed to be allowed in. Table service only, hand sanitiser on each table and staff wearing masks. It’s done really well especially since the premises are really small. I am meeting some friends there this evening (unfortunately, the only table they had was at 5pm - didn’t really want to go that early but never mind!)


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## SkipdiverJohn (5 Sep 2020)

It's more or less drinking as normal in 'spoons. 👍
None of that booking tables in advance nonsense, or card payments only. Can't be arsed with all that. You can have table service if you use the 'Spoons app, but I know the staff regard taking drinks to tables as a pain in the arse as it's extra work for them.
I just go to the bar as normal, it's pretty orderly not a big crush. Pay either cash or card, and sit where I want either in a small group at a table or by myself if I just want a quiet pint. No masks, no keeping 2 metres apart, just normal socialising. No virus so far.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> My local pub is encouraging you to book a table via email. You can just turn up but not guaranteed to be allowed in. Table service only, hand sanitiser on each table and staff wearing masks. It’s done really well especially since the premises are really small. I am meeting some friends there this evening (unfortunately, the only table they had was at 5pm - didn’t really want to go that early but never mind!)



You don’t have to stay late !


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## Julia9054 (5 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> You don’t have to stay late !


I won't - I'll be in bed by 8.30 if I start drinking at 5!


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## kingrollo (5 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> It's more or less drinking as normal in 'spoons. 👍
> None of that booking tables in advance nonsense, or card payments only. Can't be arsed with all that. You can have table service if you use the 'Spoons app, but I know the staff regard taking drinks to tables as a pain in the arse as it's extra work for them.
> I just go to the bar as normal, it's pretty orderly not a big crush. Pay either cash or card, and sit where I want either in a small group at a table or by myself if I just want a quiet pint. No masks, no keeping 2 metres apart, just normal socialising. No virus so far.


What a hero.

You are Jack Reacher and I claim my £5.


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## SkipdiverJohn (5 Sep 2020)

We don't care about the virus, but we do care about having a laugh and a beer.
No fiver from me, that's valuable beer money!


----------



## tom73 (5 Sep 2020)

Bring up the pub and the virus it never takes long for the flat earth brigade to come out.


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## MarkF (5 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Bring up the pub and the virus it never takes long for the flat earth brigade to come out.



@SkipdiverJohn views will soon be mainstream accepted. Then the ostrich brigade will have to come out and boy is that going to be painfiul.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (5 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> @SkipdiverJohn views will soon be mainstream accepted. Then the ostrich brigade will have to come out and boy is that going to be painfiul.



All the pro-lockdown zealots that want to put normal life on hold indefinitely are strangely silent about the fact that hospitalisations and deaths from the virus are stubbornly staying low, despite all the media hysteria about the fact that more cases are being detected.
Even if you look at the country with the highest numbers, the USA, the picture is the same. Early on they were getting 30k cases a day and 2k deaths, now after the second wave it's flattened off at around 40k cases a day and less than 1k deaths. The mortality rate has more than halved, and to anyone without other underlying medical issues, the risk of death from the virus is negligible..


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (5 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> All the pro-lockdown zealots that want to put normal life on hold indefinitely are strangely silent about the fact that hospitalisations and deaths from the virus are stubbornly staying low, despite all the media hysteria about the fact that more cases are being detected.
> Even if you look at the country with the highest numbers, the USA, the picture is the same. Early on they were getting 30k cases a day and 2k deaths, now after the second wave it's flattened off at around 40k cases a day and less than 1k deaths. The mortality rate has more than halved, and to anyone without other underlying medical issues, the risk of death from the virus is negligible..


Because the most viulnerable are staying inside or keeping their distance. It's the young who are catching it now. When they get it, they largely don't need hospitalising. Note the figures for the high numbers of workers staying at home still.


----------



## DCLane (5 Sep 2020)

My local Co-op's not checking anyone or asking them to wear a face covering - not since they've got screens up. They don't wear them either.

Over in Knowsley today for a velodrome session and the store nearby had about 30% of people wearing them, with the staff not doing so.

I'm guessing complacency has set in.

On the other hand in the track session we were health checked before entry plus screening. No face coverings worn for the session but kept in a small enough bubble; well under the BC guidelines. Nice track too.


----------



## kingrollo (5 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> All the pro-lockdown zealots that want to put normal life on hold indefinitely are strangely silent about the fact that hospitalisations and deaths from the virus are stubbornly staying low, despite all the media hysteria about the fact that more cases are being detected.
> Even if you look at the country with the highest numbers, the USA, the picture is the same. Early on they were getting 30k cases a day and 2k deaths, now after the second wave it's flattened off at around 40k cases a day and less than 1k deaths. The mortality rate has more than halved, and to anyone without other underlying medical issues, the risk of death from the virus is negligible..



And I take it such an alpha male as yourself has no underlying health conditions ?


----------



## kingrollo (5 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> @SkipdiverJohn views will soon be mainstream accepted. Then the ostrich brigade will have to come out and boy is that going to be painfiul.



Lol - from the guy who told in January that this was a load of fuss about nothing.

Tell ya what Id pay good money to see 12 rounds of skipdiverjohn v Markf - all that manly testosterone knocking about !


----------



## MarkF (5 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> All the pro-lockdown zealots that want to put normal life on hold indefinitely are strangely silent about the fact that hospitalisations and deaths from the virus are stubbornly staying low, despite all the media hysteria about the fact that more cases are being detected.
> Even if you look at the country with the highest numbers, the USA, the picture is the same. Early on they were getting 30k cases a day and 2k deaths, now after the second wave it's flattened off at around 40k cases a day and less than 1k deaths. The mortality rate has more than halved, and to anyone without other underlying medical issues, the risk of death from the virus is negligible..



It's political, there can be no other reason. 

We've never in history sought out perfectly healthy people from which to produce highly "spurious" cases from which don't correlate into deaths nor even hospital admissions, nor even poorly people. There is no point to this except to fuel the fear narrative. Whilst right now, other respiratory viruses that we don't hide from, kill 30-50x more. It *was* a seasonal virus and we were led by weak leaders who blinked whilst others stayed sane and it's being proved the world over. Lockdowns didn't do anything to stop the spread and lifiting restrictions didn't accelerate it. "Second wave" should go the same way as "novel", "lethal", "spike", "asympomatic tranmission" and all the other guff that has had people bedwetting for months. Sweden......USA........all gone quiet......

There is nothing to stop us going back to normal tomorrow morning, and if we did we'd stop killing people, quashing youngsters dreams/hope/futures and wrecking childrens lives.


----------



## kingrollo (5 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> It's political, there can be no other reason.
> 
> We've never in history sought out perfectly healthy people from which to produce highly "spurious" cases from which don't correlate into deaths nor even hospital admissions, nor even poorly people. There is no point to this except to fuel the fear narrative. Whilst right now, other respiratory viruses that we don't hide from, kill 30-50x more. It *was* a seasonal virus and we were led by weak leaders who blinked whilst others stayed sane and it's being proved the world over. *Lockdowns didn't do anything to stop the spread and lifiting restrictions didn't accelerate it.* "Second wave" should go the same way as "novel", "lethal", "spike", "asympomatic tranmission" and all the other guff that has had people bedwetting for months. Sweden......USA........all gone quiet......
> 
> There is nothing to stop us going back to normal tomorrow morning, and if we did we'd stop killing people, quashing youngsters dreams/hope/futures and wrecking childrens lives.



So all the goverments around the world got it wrong. All they had to do was look on a cycling forum !

Why would governments around the world want to fuel the fear narrative ? - just for the hell of it ?


----------



## kingrollo (5 Sep 2020)

Sweden:- 

Sweden has so far reported 5,832 deaths due to coronavirus, more than six times as many as reported in Denmark (264) and Norway (626) combined. This means Denmark and Norway would need to suffer a series of quite severe outbreaks for their per capita death rate to begin to rival that of Sweden. 

Source: Daily Telegraph.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (5 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> It's political, there can be no other reason.
> 
> We've never in history sought out perfectly healthy people from which to produce highly "spurious" cases from which don't correlate into deaths nor even hospital admissions, nor even poorly people. There is no point to this except to fuel the fear narrative. Whilst right now, other respiratory viruses that we don't hide from, kill 30-50x more. It *was* a seasonal virus and we were led by weak leaders who blinked whilst others stayed sane and it's being proved the world over. Lockdowns didn't do anything to stop the spread and lifiting restrictions didn't accelerate it. "Second wave" should go the same way as "novel", "lethal", "spike", "asympomatic tranmission" and all the other guff that has had people bedwetting for months. Sweden......USA........all gone quiet......
> 
> There is nothing to stop us going back to normal tomorrow morning, and if we did we'd stop killing people, quashing youngsters dreams/hope/futures and wrecking childrens lives.





MarkF said:


> It's political, there can be no other reason.
> 
> We've never in history sought out perfectly healthy people from which to produce highly "spurious" cases from which don't correlate into deaths nor even hospital admissions, nor even poorly people. There is no point to this except to fuel the fear narrative. Whilst right now, other respiratory viruses that we don't hide from, kill 30-50x more. It *was* a seasonal virus and we were led by weak leaders who blinked whilst others stayed sane and it's being proved the world over. Lockdowns didn't do anything to stop the spread and lifiting restrictions didn't accelerate it. "Second wave" should go the same way as "novel", "lethal", "spike", "asympomatic tranmission" and all the other guff that has had people bedwetting for months. Sweden......USA........all gone quiet......
> 
> There is nothing to stop us going back to normal tomorrow morning, and if we did we'd stop killing people, quashing youngsters dreams/hope/futures and wrecking childrens lives.



A really very odd post entirely at odds with the facts.


----------



## kingrollo (5 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> A really very odd post entirely at odds with the facts.



I think he must have been bullied at school.


----------



## Rezillo (5 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> ......USA........all gone quiet......









Doesn't look very quiet to me. These figures are for deaths per week and total deaths as modelled for September. By the end of the month, the forecasts are clustered around 3,000 to 7,000 deaths a week for the US, down from a peak of around 8,000 actual deaths per week at the beginning of August and around 7,000 per week actual at the end of August. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html


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## kingrollo (5 Sep 2020)

Rezillo said:


> View attachment 545587
> 
> 
> Doesn't look very quiet to me. These figures are for deaths per week and total deaths as modelled for September. By the end of the month, the forecasts are clustered around 3,000 to 7,000 deaths a week for the US, down from a peak of around 8,000 actual deaths per week at the beginning of August and around 7,000 per week actual at the end of August.
> ...



I can't believe he is citing the USA to back up his point that COVID is nothing to worry about !!!!


----------



## Rusty Nails (5 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> It's political, there can be no other reason.
> 
> We've never in history sought out perfectly healthy people from which to produce highly "spurious" cases from which don't correlate into deaths nor even hospital admissions, nor even poorly people. There is no point to this except to fuel the fear narrative. Whilst right now, other respiratory viruses that we don't hide from, kill 30-50x more. It *was* a seasonal virus and we were led by weak leaders who blinked whilst others stayed sane and it's being proved the world over. Lockdowns didn't do anything to stop the spread and lifiting restrictions didn't accelerate it. "Second wave" should go the same way as "novel", "lethal", "spike", "asympomatic tranmission" and all the other guff that has had people bedwetting for months. Sweden......USA........all gone quiet......
> 
> There is nothing to stop us going back to normal tomorrow morning, and if we did we'd stop killing people, quashing youngsters dreams/hope/futures and wrecking childrens lives.



If this were coming from someone with expertise in the fields of science and medicine who actually knew what they were talking about it would be worrying enough to at least consider.

As it's not, I'll treat it as just another bloke-down-the-pub load of old bollux.


----------



## pawl (5 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> And I take it such an alpha male as yourself has no underlying health conditions ?




I am in the high end of the age group identified as being at risk.I have no underlying health conditions.

Despite skiipdiverjhons view of the current situation which to me sounds like stuff you Jack I’m alright I will continue to take precautions to protect myself and my family I would certainly reject any advice by him and anybodyl like him with the same views.As for Wither Spoons I have only been in there on one occasion Once was enough.


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## stowie (5 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> It *was* a seasonal virus and we were led by weak leaders who blinked whilst others stayed sane and it's being proved the world over.



How is it seasonal? I have close links with Brazil, and some cities (such as Goiania) have had very significant number of COVID cases despite the city's weather being generally above 30 degrees every day and no massive temperature changes over seasons (they only really have two - hot and very dry, or hot and very wet).

I had really hoped COVID was seasonal and at the beginning it seemed like a possibility since it seemed to affect countries with a hot climate less. But the theory that COVID is highly temperature related seems to have been thoroughly debunked by the actual virus spread.



MarkF said:


> Lockdowns didn't do anything to stop the spread and lifiting restrictions didn't accelerate it. "Second wave" should go the same way as "novel", "lethal", "spike", "asympomatic tranmission" and all the other guff that has had people bedwetting for months. Sweden......USA........all gone quiet......



This is the millenium bug fallacy all over again. If we take precautions and the worst scenario doesn't happen, it doesn't mean those precautions were unnecessary. In the UK we have only lifted restrictions to a limited degree, and despite the government huffing, I know very few companies where employees are all back at the office full time. Underground trains are carrying a fraction of passengers, schools and universities are only just returning and there are still no large organised events with big crowds. People are not travelling anywhere near as much. It seems a little early to start concluding that lockdowns are ineffective or lifting restrictions don't accelerate spread of the virus.


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## Stephenite (5 Sep 2020)

@MarkF Would you mind sharing where you get your information from?


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## Joey Shabadoo (5 Sep 2020)

I've got family in Panama, almost on the equator. Population 4 million, deaths 2000. They had a particularly strict lockdown with curfews and people only being allowed out for a couple of hours a day to get supplies.


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## stowie (5 Sep 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I've got family in Panama, almost on the equator. Population 4 million, deaths 2000. They had a particularly strict lockdown with curfews and people only being allowed out for a couple of hours a day to get supplies.



Manaus is a big city located slap bang in the middle of the Brazilian Amazon*. It never gets cold, average highs are always above 30deg.

It has one of the worst outbreaks of COVID in Brazil, to the point that there is some speculation that the population may have had so many cases that some sort of herd immunity has been acquired. But at a terrible cost. Mass graves were needed for the victims and video shows these new graveyards which look like the WWII graveyards in Europe such is their scale.


* Manaus is an incredible city (if you disregard the environmental cost of developing a city of 2M people slap bang in the Amazon). The Brazil governments of the 60's made it a free trade zone to encourage development in the interior. It has no paved road connecting to the rest of South Brazil - everything going South uses boat or plane. And it is has automotive manufacturing, electronics assembly plants, and a big chemical industry. And an opera house which is considered one of the most beautiful in the world...


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## classic33 (5 Sep 2020)

Latest figures: Covid-19 patients in our hospitals

Total number tested positive to date – 1,361
Total number tested negative to date – 17,868
Confirmed COVID-19 patients currently inpatient Trust-wide – 13
Confirmed COVID-19 patients discharged (to date) to their usual place of residence or no longer being treated as COVID-19 – 698
Confirmed COVID-19 patients currently in ICU – 1
Total COVID-19 deaths to date – 256

https://www.bradfordhospitals.nhs.uk/2020/09/04/information-about-coronavirus/


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## SkipdiverJohn (6 Sep 2020)

pawl said:


> I will continue to take precautions to protect myself and my family I would certainly reject any advice by him and anybodyl like him with the same views.



You have identified that you are at higher risk of being badly affected if you get a dose of the virus, so have sensibly decided to minimise contact in order to try to avoid catching it. That is entirely logical, and one which I would agree with in the circumstances.
What is not logical, is for the large majority of fit & healthy people, who are at little risk from the virus, to risk losing their jobs and have their lives disrupted for months on end - for absolutely no benefit whatsoever.
In fact, from a long term transmission point of view, the more healthy people that catch the virus now and gain immunity to it, the better - as there is then less chance of the sick & elderly catching it from the rest of us as we won't be virus carriers.


----------



## raleighnut (6 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> And I take it such an alpha male as yourself has no underlying health conditions ?


Alpha Male my arse.


----------



## screenman (6 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> It's political, there can be no other reason.
> 
> We've never in history sought out perfectly healthy people from which to produce highly "spurious" cases from which don't correlate into deaths nor even hospital admissions, nor even poorly people. There is no point to this except to fuel the fear narrative. Whilst right now, other respiratory viruses that we don't hide from, kill 30-50x more. It *was* a seasonal virus and we were led by weak leaders who blinked whilst others stayed sane and it's being proved the world over. Lockdowns didn't do anything to stop the spread and lifiting restrictions didn't accelerate it. "Second wave" should go the same way as "novel", "lethal", "spike", "asympomatic tranmission" and all the other guff that has had people bedwetting for months. Sweden......USA........all gone quiet......
> 
> There is nothing to stop us going back to normal tomorrow morning, and if we did we'd stop killing people, quashing youngsters dreams/hope/futures and wrecking childrens lives.




I talk to a lot of people in the USA every day, it has certainly not gone quiet over there.


----------



## screenman (6 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You have identified that you are at higher risk of being badly affected if you get a dose of the virus, so have sensibly decided to minimise contact in order to try to avoid catching it. That is entirely logical, and one which I would agree with in the circumstances.
> What is not logical, is for the large majority of fit & healthy people, who are at little risk from the virus, to risk losing their jobs and have their lives disrupted for months on end - for absolutely no benefit whatsoever.
> In fact, from a long term transmission point of view, the more healthy people that catch the virus now and gain immunity to it, the better - as there is then less chance of the sick & elderly catching it from the rest of us as we won't be virus carriers.



Is there not a chance that the fit and healthy who get it will pass it on to those less so. For me wearing a mask is showing I care about others, I guess many do not.


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## IaninSheffield (6 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> the more healthy people that catch the virus now and gain immunity to it, the better - as there is then less chance of the sick & elderly catching it from the rest of us as we won't be virus carriers.


"It is still early days when it comes to understanding immunity for COVID-19" British Society for Immunology
"there is still a lot we don’t know about SARS-CoV-2 and about the mark that it leaves on our immune system" Gavi


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## Kajjal (6 Sep 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> "It is still early days when it comes to understanding immunity for COVID-19" British Society for Immunology
> "there is still a lot we don’t know about SARS-CoV-2 and about the mark that it leaves on our immune system" Gavi


Worth reading the history of “Spanish Flu” across the globe, after the first wave people assumed it was fine, the second wave was brutal. Also it had a significant impact on people’s life expectancy. The key is to understand and take reasonable precautions during a pandemic. 100% lockdown is not worth the cost in the same way as having no precautions leads to significant damage. Simply assuming you will be alright ignores the impact generally on others.


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## SkipdiverJohn (6 Sep 2020)

screenman said:


> Is there not a chance that the fit and healthy who get it will pass it on to those less so.



Absolutely, the virus doesn't care who it infects. If I'm in the pub with the virus, and you are a few feet away and high risk, you might well cop a dose of it from me. However, I don't see why I should not go about my business as normal, because a small minority of people might react badly to the virus. The sick minority are the ones who need to take the necessary steps to keep away from the rest of the population, not the other way round. The sooner the majority of the healthy population have caught it and become immune, the safer it will be for those in high risk groups to intermingle normally as the virus will have burned itself out in the general population and won't be circulating freely.
Many of those in high risk groups are economically inactive, and them isolating to keep themselves away from everyone else would be far less disruptive and economically damaging, than having destructive lockdowns and restrictions on doing business which affect everyone.


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## kingrollo (6 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Absolutely, the virus doesn't care who it infects. If I'm in the pub with the virus, and you are a few feet away and high risk, you might well cop a dose of it from me. However, I don't see why I should not go about my business as normal, because a small minority of people might react badly to the virus. The sick minority are the ones who need to take the necessary steps to keep away from the rest of the population, not the other way round. The sooner the majority of the healthy population have caught it and become immune, the safer it will be for those in high risk groups to intermingle normally as the virus will have burned itself out in the general population and won't be circulating freely.
> Many of those in high risk groups are economically inactive, and them isolating to keep themselves away from everyone else would be far less disruptive and economically damaging, than having destructive lockdowns and restrictions on doing business which affect everyone.


I would argue that lockdown for every asthmatic, diabetic, heart , COPD, cancer, lupus, MS , and over 50 would be almost as disruptive as the lockdown we have. In my household of 4 adults - only 1 would not be under lockdown.

Plus there is still a high hospitalastion rate amongst the healthy ....the NHS wouldn't cope with that all at once.


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## MrGrumpy (6 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Many of those in high risk groups are economically inactive, and them isolating to keep themselves away from everyone else would be far less disruptive and economically damaging, than having destructive lockdowns and restrictions on doing business which affect everyone.



And that’s not harmful either what an existence ?. Or we could all take the precautions asked and don’t be dicks .


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## screenman (6 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Absolutely, the virus doesn't care who it infects. If I'm in the pub with the virus, and you are a few feet away and high risk, you might well cop a dose of it from me. However, I don't see why I should not go about my business as normal, because a small minority of people might react badly to the virus. The sick minority are the ones who need to take the necessary steps to keep away from the rest of the population, not the other way round. The sooner the majority of the healthy population have caught it and become immune, the safer it will be for those in high risk groups to intermingle normally as the virus will have burned itself out in the general population and won't be circulating freely.
> Many of those in high risk groups are economically inactive, and them isolating to keep themselves away from everyone else would be far less disruptive and economically damaging, than having destructive lockdowns and restrictions on doing business which affect everyone.



Generous as always, I feel that is not the attitude I could adopt, but there you go. Are you not at all concerned with even taking it back home to your loved one's, older relatives etc.


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## Julia9054 (6 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I would argue that lockdown for every asthmatic, diabetic, heart , COPD, cancer, lupus, MS , and over 50 would be almost as disruptive as the lockdown we have. In my household of 4 adults - only 1 would not be under lockdown.
> 
> Plus there is still a high hospitalastion rate amongst the healthy ....the NHS wouldn't cope with that all at once.


There seems to be an opinion that there is the old and vulnerable vs the rest of us whereas in fact it is more of a sliding scale where we don’t actually know the exact risks each of us are taking. And that is assuming everyone knows what comorbidities they may have.
Those people of working age probably don’t have the option to give up their jobs and isolate whatever risk factors they may have. We all have housing to pay for and people to feed.


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## All uphill (6 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> There seems to be an opinion that there is the old and vulnerable vs the rest of us whereas in fact it is more of a sliding scale where we don’t actually know the exact risks each of us are taking. And that is assuming everyone knows what comorbidities they may have.
> Those people of working age probably don’t have the option to give up their jobs and isolate whatever risk factors they may have. We all have housing to pay for and people to feed.


The discussion also ignores the inconvenient subject of people who do not die but have longer term debilitating effects.
Our 27yr old son is one of those, and it is not a good place to be.


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## Julia9054 (6 Sep 2020)

All uphill said:


> The discussion also ignores the inconvenient subject of people who do not die but have longer term debilitating effects.
> Our 27yr old son is one of those, and it is not a good place to be.


Ah yes. The death vs a bit of a cough fallacy


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## Joey Shabadoo (6 Sep 2020)

A socially distanced concert in Newcastle


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## PK99 (6 Sep 2020)

Kajjal said:


> Worth reading the history of “Spanish Flu” across the globe, after the first wave people assumed it was fine, the second wave was brutal. Also it had a significant impact on people’s life expectancy. The key is to understand and take reasonable precautions during a pandemic. 100% lockdown is not worth the cost in the same way as having no precautions leads to significant damage. Simply assuming you will be alright ignores the impact generally on others.


Once again, the key difference is the age groups most vulnerable. Spanish flu killed many in their 20s and 30s, including my paternal grandparents. 50% of Covid deaths are over 85 and only 10% are below 65 - with most of those having pre existing conditions.


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## classic33 (6 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You have identified that you are at higher risk of being badly affected if you get a dose of the virus, so have sensibly decided to minimise contact in order to try to avoid catching it. That is entirely logical, and one which I would agree with in the circumstances.
> What is not logical, is for the large majority of fit & healthy people, who are at little risk from the virus, to risk losing their jobs and have their lives disrupted for months on end - for absolutely no benefit whatsoever.
> In fact, from a long term transmission point of view, the more healthy people that catch the virus now and gain immunity to it, the better - as there is then less chance of the sick & elderly catching it from the rest of us as we won't be virus carriers.


Question!
In 2001, we had Foot and Mouth in this country. Large areas of open ground and countryside were simply placed off limits. Some roads simply closed. Three foot wide disinfectent soak straw mats at the entrances to a large number of properties

Were you one of those who said they'd never catch it, ignored the law, and went where you wanted. Safe in your knowledge that you'd never catch it. But had a chance of spreading it to another region?

There's parts round here that haven't recovered yet to their pre 2001 state.


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## tom73 (6 Sep 2020)

When a highly experienced Nurse come's home from her first response shift on the respiratory care unit she use to run. Who has seen and interpreted 1000's of chest X-rays. Tell's you having seen her first covid one that she has never seen anything like it, neither have the respiratory doctors. You know this is something to worry about.
I've two options, one look at what's happening ,engage brain and read, review the evidence using the knowledge and experience I have and
listen to what my wife is saying, seeing and experiencing. 
or I can reach for my tin foil hat. 
If many of us all get proved wrong and it was nothing to worry about at least we know we tried to a save a life.
Some however will never know as they never even tried.
Saying that it's little point even trying to argue with some who see life of others as disposable to the thrown in the skip.


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## tom73 (6 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Question!
> In 2001, we had Foot and Mouth in this country. Large areas of open ground and countryside were simply placed off limits. Some roads simply closed. Three foot wide disinfectent soak straw mats at the entrances to a large number of properties
> 
> Were you one of those who said they'd never catch it, ignored the law, and went where you wanted. Safe in your knowledge that you'd never catch it. But had a chance of spreading it to another region?
> ...



He probably went round and toasted a few marshmallows by the fire. As others stood weeping as everything went up in flames.


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## classic33 (6 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Absolutely, the virus doesn't care who it infects. If I'm in the pub with the virus, and you are a few feet away and high risk, you might well cop a dose of it from me. However, I don't see why I should not go about my business as normal, because a small minority of people might react badly to the virus. The sick minority are the ones who need to take the necessary steps to keep away from the rest of the population, not the other way round. The sooner the majority of the healthy population have caught it and become immune, the safer it will be for those in high risk groups to intermingle normally as the virus will have burned itself out in the general population and won't be circulating freely.
> Many of those in high risk groups are economically inactive, and them isolating to keep themselves away from everyone else would be far less disruptive and economically damaging, than having destructive lockdowns and restrictions on doing business which affect everyone.


Why should I have to hide just so you can carry on as you see fit? It's an inconvenience, and nothing else to you.

I'm of the opinion that anyone who knows they have it, and ignores the restrictions in place, should be hit the hardest. Along with those who have been told to self isolate, but don't see the point of doing so.


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## RoadRider400 (6 Sep 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> A socially distanced concert in Newcastle
> View attachment 545684



Looks better than a conventional concert. Cant say jostling for position, getting bumped into and being stuck around people watching the concert through their mobile phone has any appeal whatsoever.


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## Joey Shabadoo (6 Sep 2020)

There's so many side-effects of Covid that re being discovered all the time. I've discovered it affects wardrobes too


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## Kajjal (6 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> Once again, the key difference is the age groups most vulnerable. Spanish flu killed many in their 20s and 30s, including my paternal grandparents. 50% of Covid deaths are over 85 and only 10% are below 65 - with most of those having pre existing conditions.


I would be cautious making the comparison, average life expectancy at the beginning of the last century was mid to late 40’s. A hundred years later it was about 80. going forward the key will not simply be who dies but the long term health implications. In various pandemics this only becomes clear later on , in the case of Spanish flu reducing people’s life expectancy significantly.


----------



## pawl (6 Sep 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> And that’s not harmful either what an existence ?. Or we could all take the precautions asked and don’t be dicks .


 
This guy by comments whatever his arguments are just doesn’t give a dam.


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## MrGrumpy (6 Sep 2020)

pawl said:


> This guy by comments whatever his arguments are just doesn’t give a dam.


Yep that’s what comes across.  . Antagonistic in truth.


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## marinyork (6 Sep 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> A socially distanced concert in Newcastle
> View attachment 545684



I think that was what they showed on Sky News a few weeks ago. That's fascinating as they showed it empty and that's what it really looks like.


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## Ming the Merciless (6 Sep 2020)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Important supporting evidence that steroids significantly reduce mortality in patients with severe COVID. This is true of hydrocortisone as well as dexamethasone. Safe, cheap, well known drugs and available everywhere. <br><br>Thank you to those who took part in these trials. <a href="https://t.co/1lthgTQulk">https://t.co/1lthgTQulk</a></p>&mdash; Professor Chris Whitty (@CMO_England) <a href="
View: https://twitter.com/CMO_England/status/1301216189461540869?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
">September 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


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## Joey Shabadoo (6 Sep 2020)

Figures not looking good. Are we just following the European path? (first graph Scotland then UK)


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## DCLane (6 Sep 2020)

Looks like we're at take-off point again for another big increase.


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## classic33 (6 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Absolutely, the virus doesn't care who it infects. If I'm in the pub with the virus, and you are a few feet away and high risk, you might well cop a dose of it from me. However, I don't see why I should not go about my business as normal, because a small minority of people might react badly to the virus. The sick minority are the ones who need to take the necessary steps to keep away from the rest of the population, not the other way round. *The sooner the majority of the healthy population have caught it and become immune,* the safer it will be for those in high risk groups to intermingle normally as the virus will have burned itself out in the general population and won't be circulating freely.
> Many of those in high risk groups are economically inactive, and them isolating to keep themselves away from everyone else would be far less disruptive and economically damaging, than having destructive lockdowns and restrictions on doing business which affect everyone.


May not be as true as you seem to believe. Rare but no guarantee of immunity against getting it a second time.
_A few readers have asked us whether you can catch Covid-19 twice. This follows reports at the end of February that a Japanese woman had tested positive a second time. A recent article in the Daily Mail and two articles in the Sun also suggested in their headlines and their early paragraphs that this might be the case.

The evidence so far shows that catching the disease twice is very rare, and that most infected people recover and develop immunity against it. However, it is not yet clear how long this immunity will last."_

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-catch-twice/

I say shut the pubs again, or at the very least hold the landlord responsible for ensuring their patrons stick to the regulations. Don't do it, they shut the pubs.


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## DRM (6 Sep 2020)

I think the problem is that you don’t become infected with the same strain of Covid-19 twice, but a newer mutated variation of it, there’s a podcast on the BBC sounds app that had a virologist saying that we will one day have a huge pandemic of a corona virus, as it is constantly mutating, the podcast was discussing SARS, and, was several years old, the virologist was absolutely spot on with his prediction


----------



## kingrollo (6 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> Looks like we're at take-off point again for another big increase.


Damm rotten luck - we've tried so hard to stop the 2nd wave - but it looks like it's coming....


----------



## fossyant (6 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Damm rotten luck - we've tried so hard to stop the 2nd wave - but it looks like it's coming....



Watching BBC news now and opinion is its not as severe as it was, all back. The sickness levels are going to be incredible and employers won't be able to cope with many staff off ill. Add in the false alerts when someone develops similar symptoms then is off until test results come back. Going to make things very difficult.


----------



## tom73 (7 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Watching BBC news now and opinion is its not as severe as it was, all back. The sickness levels are going to be incredible and employers won't be able to cope with many staff off ill. Add in the false alerts when someone develops similar symptoms then is off until test results come back. Going to make things very difficult.



We had a chance post lock down to really target areas at risk, build up local public health, bring in freely widely available testing and to integrate the whole thing with primary care. To put in place and maintain a well informed, consistent targeted public health message.
Basically a plan so we can really go in hard and eliminate the virus or even at best get it to manageable, easy to control levels.
But we've blown it.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (7 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> We had a chance post lock down to really target areas at risk, build up local public health, bring in freely widely available testing and to integrate the whole thing with primary care. To put in place and maintain a well informed, consistent targeted public health message.
> Basically a plan so we can really go in hard and eliminate the virus or even at best get it to manageable, easy to control levels.
> But we've blown it.


Any guesses who Hancock will scapegoat now?


----------



## kingrollo (7 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Any guesses who Hancock will scapegoat now?


The under 25's , Dinghy people, the bbc , and the lead singer from Echo and the bunnymen.


----------



## pawl (7 Sep 2020)

Kajjal said:


> I would be cautious making the comparison, average life expectancy at the beginning of the last century was mid to late 40’s. A hundred years later it was about 80. going forward the key will not simply be who dies but the long term health implications. In various pandemics this only becomes clear later on , in the case of Spanish flu reducing people’s life expectancy significantly.


 
With a bit of luck and care I will reach reach that average in Feb next year.


----------



## mjr (7 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> [...]
> I don't see why I should not go about my business as normal, [...]


So you feel your "business" of going to the pub unchanged is more important than the lives of others? Remember, you can still go to a pub, but you just need to sit in a beer garden and accept table service. I'm fine with that if it helps reduce the death toll and cannot fathom the level of lust for the oddly British experience of bundling others at a busy bar required to conclude otherwise. Is it because the pub bar is one place where Brits don't queue fairly? 



SkipdiverJohn said:


> Many of those in high risk groups are economically inactive, [...]


That depends what you call "many" and "high risk groups" but it's probably misleading. For example, among disabled people, the majority are economically active. There are plenty of people with serious life-altering illnesses still working.



SkipdiverJohn said:


> The mortality rate has more than halved, and to anyone without other underlying medical issues, the risk of death from the virus is negligible..


That's another misleading one, of course. If you test more and detect more asymptomatic and minor cases, then of course the confirmed case mortality rate falls. The actual mortality rate remains whatever it always was.


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## tom73 (7 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Any guesses who Hancock will scapegoat now?


If the interview yesterday is anything to with it's younger people calling round to see granny. Over and over again he said it together with go back to work "we've put in a lot of work making placers covid secure". AKA stick up the cut and keep certificate and covid runs away. Given perfect chance to do clear public health message the best he came up with was how vital social distancing is. 
Other counties see a few new cases and come out fighting but Hancook when asked about biggest increase to date came out with "worrying"


----------



## Ming the Merciless (7 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> That's another misleading one, of course. If you test more and detect more asymptomatic and minor cases, then of course the confirmed case mortality rate falls. The actual mortality rate remains whatever it always was.



Plus of course the greater the sample size the better the confidence interval. We are now starting to see numbers closer to the real mortality rate.


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## roubaixtuesday (7 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> We are now starting to see numbers closer to the real mortality rate.



Depends how you define "mortality rate": case fatality rate, infection fatality rate or population fatality rate being just three different definitions. 

It's certain that the change in mortality rate is in part down to the skew in new cases to the younger, who it's well known have much lower mortality. It may well be that a population adjusted mortality is unchanged. 

There's also an interesting theory that social distancing has driven evolution of the virus to more transmissible but less fatal strains. That's a nice thought, but I'm somewhat sceptical myself. 

These fatality rates are very hard to pin down exactly, as we know neither exactly how many people are killed by COVID-19 and even more so, how many people have been infected.


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## kingrollo (7 Sep 2020)

*Matt Hancock* today dramatically raised hopes of a *Covid-19 vaccine in the new year.*
The Health Secretary said it was “looking up” that the vaccine being developed by experts at the University of Oxford and pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca would be granted approval for use soon after trials in several countries, including the UK, US and Brazil.

Great news - Shame about the source - been a bit unreliable in the past though - should work for YODEL !


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## roubaixtuesday (7 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> *Matt Hancock* today dramatically raised hopes of a *Covid-19 vaccine in the new year.*
> The Health Secretary said it was “looking up” that the vaccine being developed by experts at the University of Oxford and pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca would be granted approval for use soon after trials in several countries, including the UK, US and Brazil.
> 
> Great news - Shame about the source - been a bit unreliable in the past though - should work for YODEL !



There is nothing new here. Phase I results were public weeks ago and the phase 3 trial has been ongoing in South Africa and Brazil for some time.

Hancock cannot have any inside track on how well the trial is going because the people running it will not know either. It's blinded.

Results are "event driven" ie once there are sufficient cases of COVID in the trial, the results will be unblinded and comparison made between placebo and active arms. There is no new data suggesting how positive or otherwise that comparison will be, or on the date it will be available.


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## SkipdiverJohn (7 Sep 2020)

screenman said:


> Are you not at all concerned with even taking it back home to your loved one's, older relatives etc.



Yes, there's one elderly relative I'm keeping well away from, as a dose of the virus would probably take them out. I think I've had the coronavirus anyway, but I'm playing it safe just in case what I caught was actually something else. Keep in touch by phone only, haven't seen them in person since March.


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## SkipdiverJohn (7 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Why should I have to hide just so you can carry on as you see fit? It's an inconvenience, and nothing else to you.
> 
> I'm of the opinion that anyone who knows they have it, and ignores the restrictions in place, should be hit the hardest. Along with those who have been told to self isolate, but don't see the point of doing so.



OK, I''ll turn it on it's head; why should I, with a very low risk of serious illness from the virus, be prevented from going about my business, when the high risk people mostly actually know they are high risk and can therefore take action themselves to minimise *their own* contact with others?. The ones with the highest risks I would have thought would have the most incentive to keep their distance. In any case, the, high risk groups need to hide away, irrespective of whether the low risk population also minimises social contact or not. If you can't risk catching the virus, you can't mix anyway so it makes no difference whatsoever to you if I go about as normal, but it does make a difference to me. And if I'm not out consuming and spending money, it also makes a difference to those whose jobs rely on my spending.
Now, to be clear, I am *not* condoning anyone who knows or believes they have the virus, continuing to socialise or mix with others until their symptoms have cleared up. If you have got it, you shouldn't knowingly spread it around. In reality if you are unwell with virus symptoms, you are probably not going to want to go out anyway just as you would not go out with the Flu.. It will be mainly asymptomactic infectees who spread the virus, but you can't realistically expect everyone not to do anything remotely normal, just in case there's a tiny chance they might have it. Society and the economy both need to continue to function - virus or no virus.


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## roubaixtuesday (7 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> OK, I''ll turn it on it's head; why should I, with a very low risk of serious illness from the virus, be prevented from going about my business, when the high risk people mostly actually know they are high risk and can therefore take action themselves to minimise *their own* contact with others?. The ones with the highest risks I would have thought would have the most incentive to keep their distance. In any case, the, high risk groups need to hide away, irrespective of whether the low risk population also minimises social contact or not. If you can't risk catching the virus, you can't mix anyway so it makes no difference whatsoever to you if I go about as normal, but it does make a difference to me. And if I'm not out consuming and spending money, it also makes a difference to those whose jobs rely on my spending.
> Now, to be clear, I am *not* condoning anyone who knows or believes they have the virus, continuing to socialise or mix with others until their symptoms have cleared up. If you have got it, you shouldn't knowingly spread it around. In reality if you are unwell with virus symptoms, you are probably not going to want to go out anyway just as you would not go out with the Flu.. It will be mainly asymptomactic infectees who spread the virus, but you can't realistically expect everyone not to do anything remotely normal, just in case there's a tiny chance they might have it. Society and the economy both need to continue to function - virus or no virus.



Why should I, as a motorist with very low risk of injury, be prevented from driving just as fast as I damn well please, when the high risk cyclists mostly actually know they are high risk and can therefore take action themselves to minimise *their own* contact with motorists? The ones with the highest risks I would have thought would have the most incentive to keep their distance.


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## tom73 (7 Sep 2020)

Study of outbreak at a hotel in Switzerland leads to health department warning on face shields. 
https://www.insider.com/face-shields-did-not-protect-people-from-coronavirus-swiss-outbreak-2020-7


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## icowden (7 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> ....not sure if serious ?



Why not? 

@SkipdiverJohn's position is not an unpopular one. It's also a difficult one to balance. Is it better to be cautious and protect those most as risk, but at the same time create more risk of mental health issues, isolation, and damage to the economy (thus driving people out of jobs, causing further mental health issues, poverty etc), or is it better to protect those most at risk, but tip the seesaw the other way. The original solution of the government paying everyone to stay at home isn't sustainable as soon the government will run out of money. It's only a short term patch.

We have to have economic activity, people need to go back to work etc in order for the country to function and in order to have government money for the less well off. If money stops going into the system, the system will collapse. There is an argument to say that many people shielding would be shielding from *something* even if Covid19 wasn't around.

So then we look at the middle ground. Is there a position where we can reduce the spread of infection but have people working, and doing the things they usually do? That's where we are now. Some things just can't work, or just don't work. Arguably, Pubs don't work as they are high risk for infection spread. Things can be done in summer months such as table service outside for example, but the more people you have inside, and the more drunk they get, the more likely they will spread infection. 

Planes are problematic as they enclose air in the cabin for long periods of time. Theatres are problematic as they tend to only be viable to very full houses. More testing will help, better and more effective treatment will help, but there isn't a quick solution. So we are in a place where Covid whackamole is probably the best solution.


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## Julia9054 (7 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> high risk people mostly actually know they are high risk and can therefore take action themselves to minimise *their own* contact with others?.


You are assuming that everyone has a choice.


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## matticus (7 Sep 2020)

Let's hear it for the middle-ground! Sadly not a very popular viewpoint for internet ranters and back-slappers.


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## icowden (7 Sep 2020)

It's very import and that things are either WRONG or RIGHT. Polarisation of viewpoint is essential!


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## mjr (7 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> OK, I''ll turn it on it's head; why should I, with a very low risk of serious illness from the virus, be prevented from going about my business, when the high risk people mostly actually know they are high risk and can therefore take action themselves to minimise *their own* contact with others?.


That's a false dilemma, isn't it? It's not a choice between the two and we should do both.

If loads of those who believe themselves very low risk get themselves infected, even the minimised contacts could well infect the high-risk. Plus also, "very low risk" is not risk-free, so that's more unnecessary strain on the NHS and risk to workers in it. I think you have to be almost without empathy to take no precautions against this virus.



SkipdiverJohn said:


> It will be mainly asymptomactic infectees who spread the virus, but you can't realistically expect everyone not to do anything remotely normal, just in case there's a tiny chance they might have it. Society and the economy both need to continue to function - virus or no virus.


Another false dilemma! It's not virus precautions or the economy. As we've already seen in the first phase, bad virus handling means worse economic results.


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## roubaixtuesday (7 Sep 2020)

UK cases are now above the level at which we impose quarantine on other countries.

Schools are only just returning, most Universities yet to return, govt is actively encouraging return to offices and public transport. Testing capacity doesn't seem to be able to cope already.

This could go very wrong, very quickly.


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## kingrollo (7 Sep 2020)

icowden said:


> Why not?
> 
> @SkipdiverJohn's position is not an unpopular one. It's also a difficult one to balance. Is it better to be cautious and protect those most as risk, but at the same time create more risk of mental health issues, isolation, and damage to the economy (thus driving people out of jobs, causing further mental health issues, poverty etc), or is it better to protect those most at risk, but tip the seesaw the other way. The original solution of the government paying everyone to stay at home isn't sustainable as soon the government will run out of money. It's only a short term patch.
> 
> ...



1.skipdiver John wants to go the pub - even you have said that's not working.

2.Even Boris has rejected just locking up at risk people

3.youre position is different to skipdvier john


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## matticus (7 Sep 2020)

icowden said:


> It's very import and that things are either WRONG or RIGHT. Polarisation of viewpoint is essential!


Also, I find sarcasm VERY difficult from the middle-ground


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## mjr (7 Sep 2020)

icowden said:


> Arguably, Pubs don't work as they are high risk for infection spread. Things can be done in summer months such as table service outside for example, but the more people you have inside, and the more drunk they get, the more likely they will spread infection.


An elephant in the room (and it's definitely in the room not out in the beer garden) is that it is illegal for pubs to serve alcohol to drunk people (and has been in previous versions of the law).

If the government tackled that, then pubs would probably not be high infection risks - but there would be loads of bankruptcies at the low end of the licensed trade and the government would be very unpopular and either voted out for sure next time or maybe even overthrown!


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## tom73 (7 Sep 2020)

We are not even at the middle ground the right measures are still not in place. Things can open and things can get moving but not at the rate we did it and and not without a clear plan covering both public health and the economy. But even then only if everyone plays my rules get's a grip and stops thinking it all about them. 
Things opening and closing due to outbreaks and a growing number of the working population being in and out of work of work due to raising cases. Won't do things any good either. Let's face much of the economy was bust or near it long before covid so opening up as before and hoping it's fixed. Won't work so why not rebuild and rebalance things now ? We've nothing to lose but with a bit of thinking and money we've a lot to gain.


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## kingrollo (7 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> We are not even at the middle ground the right measures are still not in place. Things can open and things can get moving but not at the rate we did it and and not without a clear plan covering both public health and the economy. But even then only if everyone plays my rules get's a grip and stops thinking it all about them.
> Things opening and closing due to outbreaks and a growing number of the working population being in and out of work of work due to raising cases. Won't do things any good either. Let's face much of the economy was bust or near it long before covid so opening up as before and hoping it's fixed. Won't work so why not rebuild and rebalance things now ? We've nothing to lose but with a bit of thinking and money we've a lot to gain.



I think the rules need to be enforced - issuing woolly guidelines or just expecting pubs to to self regulate is never going to work.


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## tom73 (7 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think the rules need to be enforced - issuing woolly guidelines or just expecting pubs to to self regulate is never going to work.



That would need some real local level funding and investment which would never go down well. 
I do feel for shops and the like that have really put the work in and are doing all they can to open safely. Only to get stuck in local lockdowns though the actions of a shop or pub up the road who never really tried. The few places i've been in really deserved being supported. Sadly it's more than likely they'd be one who if they close again won't open.


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## classic33 (7 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> OK, I''ll turn it on it's head; why should I, with a very low risk of serious illness from the virus, be prevented from going about my business, when the high risk people mostly actually know they are high risk and can therefore take action themselves to minimise *their own* contact with others?. The ones with the highest risks I would have thought would have the most incentive to keep their distance. In any case, the, high risk groups need to hide away, irrespective of whether the low risk population also minimises social contact or not. If you can't risk catching the virus, you can't mix anyway so it makes no difference whatsoever to you if I go about as normal, but it does make a difference to me. And if I'm not out consuming and spending money, it also makes a difference to those whose jobs rely on my spending.
> Now, to be clear, I am *not* condoning anyone who knows or believes they have the virus, continuing to socialise or mix with others until their symptoms have cleared up. If you have got it, you shouldn't knowingly spread it around. In reality if you are unwell with virus symptoms, you are probably not going to want to go out anyway just as you would not go out with the Flu.. It will be mainly asymptomactic infectees who spread the virus, but you can't realistically expect everyone not to do anything remotely normal, just in case there's a tiny chance they might have it. Society and the economy both need to continue to function - virus or no virus.


Why should you have a seperate set of rules to allow you to crowd a bar. You're assuming everyone is being honest, giving their correct contact details and by doing do are stating they have been tested and results are negative. 

I qualify, for high risk. on four counts, epilepsy(lifelong), cancer(past and present) and heart. The epilepsy is a disability that restricts me about 5% of the time. "Economically active" the rest of the time. The past cancer doesn't affect "economic activity". The present cancer and heart neither. The current situation has put treatment for all, on hold. The longer it continues, the longer treatment is withheld. I know I'm the only one in this situation. 

What you are saying is, is that your " right" to go to a crowded bar, your only "economic activity" mentioned to date should take priority over treatment being placed on hold for 1,000's in this country! Restricted emergency treatment as well. I'm doing my own shopping, so "economically active", keeping people in work. None of the above have stopped me working. Peoples attitudes to them have though.

I've been hit by a car(something easy to relate to) and had many a seizure/fit/episode/call it what you want, and I'd prefer being hit being hit by the car for the way both left me feeling afterwards. It didn't hurt as much as the fits. There's no pain killers* allowed, so I'm left to carry on as best I can. You want to make that worse as it's "your right" to do what you see fit. What makes you so special?

*There's a small possibility that a routinely used painkiller may be responsible for the current heart problem. Last given/used eight years ago, as routine emergency treatment for the visible effects of a fit. Head split open when I hit the ground.


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## fossyant (7 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> There were people on the radio today with heart-breaking stories of not being able to visit elderly relatives in care-homes.



We are in this situation - wife in tears today. MIL phoning in tears most days. We've just been allowed to stand in the car pak from tomorrow - MrsF got the email, so sent it to her sisters, then was gazumped by her sister - SIL goes tomorrow, my missus can't go for at least another week - 1 family person per week. MIL's mental health is in bits. Her body is knackered but she's a tough old boot upstairs. Spending your last years in a prison charging £1000 a week and not allowing you to see your family from behind glass in a building whilst you are outside.... 

That's what hisses me off about the ' I'll carry on as I please'. We aren't, for the sake of a chance to visit MIL - I've not seen her for 7 months, but keep myself safe, so my wife can go. Oh and the visitors are temperature checked (in the ruddy car park where they stay). The home has been far from perfect as they have had a raft of deaths from Covid.


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## mjr (7 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> Coherent, comprehensive and effective track and trace is the best way forward at the moment alongside gradual easing of lockdown measures and very clear messaging. Anything else is really just doing stuff and hoping it works.


How's our track and trace doing at beating the world so far?


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## classic33 (7 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> An elephant in the room (and it's definitely in the room not out in the beer garden) is that it is illegal for pubs to serve alcohol to drunk people (and has been in previous versions of the law).
> 
> If the government tackled that, then pubs would probably not be high infection risks - but there would be loads of bankruptcies at the low end of the licensed trade and the government would be very unpopular and either voted out for sure next time or maybe even overthrown!


It's illegal to be drunk on licensed premise's. And that includes any outdoor area belong to those premises.


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## matticus (7 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> An elephant in the room (and it's definitely in the room not out in the beer garden) is that it is illegal for pubs to serve alcohol to drunk people (and has been in previous versions of the law).
> 
> If the government tackled that, then pubs would probably not be high infection risks - but there would be loads of bankruptcies at the low end of the licensed trade and the government would be very unpopular and either voted out for sure next time or maybe even overthrown!


Wouldn't Britain be a nicer place if this was enforced? Might be impracticable, but worth a try - and we've had a mass of un-enforcable new COVID laws foisted on us, for people to follow/ignore as they see fit.


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## classic33 (7 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> Let's hear it for the middle-ground! Sadly not a very popular viewpoint for internet ranters and back-slappers.


I want to return to normal, but I'm willing to accept that what will be normal after this won't be the same as before. And the longer this goes on the further apart those two "normals" will be.

So why don't we all try and reduce the time between those two "normals".


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## classic33 (7 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> *Wouldn't Britain be a nicer place if this was enforced?* Might be impracticable, but worth a try - and we've had a mass of un-enforcable new COVID laws foisted on us, for people to follow/ignore as they see fit.


Often used to close a pub which has a number of calls to it in the one night.


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## SkipdiverJohn (7 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> UK cases are now above the level at which we impose quarantine on other countries.



The infection numbers are unimportant. So long as the number of hospitalisations for severe illness don't exceed the NHS intensive care capacity, then the situation will remain manageable no matter what. The NHS could just about cope with 5-6,000 confirmed tested cases a day in March/April *before* the extra Nightingale contingency capacity was added. Therefore we should be able to deal with at least 10,000 virus cases a day going forward, on a business as usual basis, with no lockdowns and the resulting economic carnage. Shutting everything down again for several weeks simply isn't an option now. No country can afford it, as India has discovered the hard way and has now reopened - despite astronomical increases in Coronavirus cases. Whatever happens over the next weeks and months the economy will have to be kept open, and the authorities will have to manage any fallout from the virus within that situation.


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## roubaixtuesday (7 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Therefore we should be able to deal with at least 10,000 virus cases a day going forward, on a business as usual basis, with no lockdowns and the resulting economic carnage.



As I carefully explained upthread, controlling 1000 infections a day requires less restrictions than controlling 10 000. If you believe differently, please explain why.


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## classic33 (7 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The infection numbers are unimportant. So long as the number of hospitalisations for severe illness don't exceed the *NHS intensive care capacity*, then the situation will remain manageable no matter what. The NHS could just about cope with 5-6,000 confirmed tested cases a day in March/April *before* the extra Nightingale contingency capacity was added. Therefore we should be able to deal with at least 10,000 virus cases a day going forward, on a business as usual basis, with no lockdowns and the resulting economic carnage. Shutting everything down again for several weeks simply isn't an option now. No country can afford it, as India has discovered the hard way and has now reopened - despite astronomical increases in Coronavirus cases. Whatever happens over the next weeks and months the economy will have to be kept open, and the authorities will have to manage any fallout from the virus within that situation.


Local ICU capicity could soon be overloaded.
*On both sites each unit has the following beds:*
Calderdale Royal Hospital (CRH) – four intensive care beds and two high dependency beds.

Huddersfield Royal Infirmary (HRI) - six intensive care beds and two two high dependency beds.

Where do they go when those 10 beds have been filled?

The actual beds are the easy part, the staffing of those beds is the harder part.


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## Adam4868 (7 Sep 2020)

Let us do it for you ?


View: https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1303060271460741122?s=19


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## tom73 (7 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> There were people on the radio today with heart-breaking stories of not being able to visit elderly relatives in care-homes. Made even worse when those relatives had dementia which meant they had little concept of the measures being taken. Many had gone into depression and other conditions brought on by the isolation from family. A horrible way to spend the final years of life.
> 
> It isn't even as if it would be effective.
> 
> ...



Not forgetting the ones who'd be free to be normal. Will still need health care so that rules out anyone who lives with them. Which just going on NHS numbers is one hell of lot out of action. One area of care that's often forgotten is the large number of young carers so under this that means a lot young people taken out of education. If we then include all the other essential services as given in government list that the free ones will still need. It's hard to see if anyone will be left to go the pub. 
So all in all it's one sure way to really screw things up.


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## stowie (7 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> We are in this situation - wife in tears today. MIL phoning in tears most days. We've just been allowed to stand in the car pak from tomorrow - MrsF got the email, so sent it to her sisters, then was gazumped by her sister - SIL goes tomorrow, my missus can't go for at least another week - 1 family person per week. MIL's mental health is in bits. Her body is knackered but she's a tough old boot upstairs. Spending your last years in a prison charging £1000 a week and not allowing you to see your family from behind glass in a building whilst you are outside....
> 
> That's what hisses me off about the ' I'll carry on as I please'. We aren't, for the sake of a chance to visit MIL - I've not seen her for 7 months, but keep myself safe, so my wife can go. Oh and the visitors are temperature checked (in the ruddy car park where they stay). The home has been far from perfect as they have had a raft of deaths from Covid.



Really sorry to hear about your situation. I hope it improves in the near future, and that the visiting schedules become less restrictive.


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## classic33 (7 Sep 2020)

@SkipdiverJohn, another question!

You slip, hit your head. As a result you have a fit/seizure/episode/call it what you want. You're "normal life" comes to a full stop. If you drive, you've to surrender all licence's. Then, previously, you'd have to wait a year, and be signed off as clear, without any further happening. During that time your job might be at risk, especially if you need to drive for a living. 

Not an uncommon situation*, but one that brings your life to a full stop. You'd immediately find yourself placed in the high risk group, meaning under your "rules" you'd have to self isolate to allow everyone not in that group to carry on as normal. Could you manage?

*I worked with someone who used to rib me for riding to work, who now finds himself in that situation. He's lucky in regards work, he's got a lift to work and they've managed to find him another job in the meantime. But he's said it will be 2022 before he finds out if they'll sign him as clear. The reason for the extended delay, the current situation.

Cancer doesn't care about who it gets.


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## tom73 (7 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Often used to close a pub which has a number of calls to it in the one night.


Very true many a licensee come's a cropper over it. The risk of a fine is bad enough without losing your license come renew time.


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## tom73 (7 Sep 2020)

Now Van Tam is making it clear the current situation is not looking good. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54065793
People have he said "relaxed too much" over the summer and "we have got to start taking this very seriously again".
If not, the UK will have "a bumpy ride over the next few months",
"there is a more general and creeping geographic trend across the UK that disease levels are now beginning to turn up"
"now is the time for us to re-engage, and to realise that this a continuing threat to us,"
He also urged public health officials and politicians to think about how the virus is managed not in the short term, but over the next six months and "until the spring".

Sadly I think it will fall on deaf ears ofter all he's an expert and not the CEO of pret or a back bencher.


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## roubaixtuesday (7 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now Van Tam is making it clear the current situation is not looking good



TBF my blind great grandmother can see it's not looking good. Boris Johnson, on the other hand...


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## tom73 (7 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> TBF my blind great grandmother can see it's not looking good. Boris Johnson, on the other hand...



He can always phone his friend Matt......


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## kingrollo (7 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The infection numbers are unimportant. So long as the number of hospitalisations for severe illness don't exceed the NHS intensive care capacity, then the situation will remain manageable no matter what. The NHS could just about cope with 5-6,000 confirmed tested cases a day in March/April *before* the extra Nightingale contingency capacity was added. Therefore we should be able to deal with at least 10,000 virus cases a day going forward, on a business as usual basis, with no lockdowns and the resulting economic carnage. Shutting everything down again for several weeks simply isn't an option now. No country can afford it, as India has discovered the hard way and has now reopened - despite astronomical increases in Coronavirus cases. Whatever happens over the next weeks and months the economy will have to be kept open, and the authorities will have to manage any fallout from the virus within that situation.



But your missing the whole point - If you let the virus run rampant the economy won't continue. There will be too many people off sick , or looking after someone off sick, -(A healthy friend of Mine, early 50's - Just back to work after 3 weeks off with Covid) The capacity of the NHS will go down pretty quickly - as the demand rises. Youre saying we coped last winter and should therefore be able to cope this - completely ignoring the lockdown that helped us cope - and that we needn't do this time around. - and completely ignoring we have had 3k cases the last 2 days and aren't even in October !!!

You might be right - we won't go to full lockdown - but theres no way things will continue as they are - everything will just grind to a halt - I think even Boris and his mates know that. The very least we will see is is more stringent local lockdowns. Its purely my belief that they will to a greater or lesser extent restrict/close pubs/restaurants.


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## DCLane (7 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sadly I think it will fall on deaf ears ofter all he's an expert and not the CEO of pret or a back bencher.



Unfortunately I agree. This evening I've been in Manchester at the velodrome and called into the ASDA there. It was busy and around 5pm. Most people weren't wearing a face covering, no-one challenged them at the entrance, and there was no form of distance between customers. No different to early March.

No amount of rules / restrictions / guidelines / regulations will work if they're not collectively acted upon with enforcement.


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## SkipdiverJohn (8 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> It's illegal to be drunk on licensed premise's. And that includes any outdoor area belong to those premises.



Despite my local watering hole not being the most genteel of venues, you really won't get served if you look obviously pissed, you'll get told no more beer tonight, come back tomorrow when sober. Not just because of the licensing laws, but people who've had way too many can be right a pain in the arse and the staff would rather not have to try to eject them at closing time when they want to stay and carry on drinking.



kingrollo said:


> The capacity of the NHS will go down pretty quickly - as the demand rises. Youre saying we coped last winter and should therefore be able to cope this - completely ignoring the lockdown that helped us cope - and that we needn't do this time around. - and completely ignoring we have had 3k cases the last 2 days and aren't even in October !!!



The true situation in March/April was far worse than the stats make it appear. We were getting c. 5k official cases a day, but hardly anyone was being tested unless hospitalised, so the stats were only the tip of the iceberg. It's widely reckoned now the true infection rate was at least 100k a day, so 20 x the official numbers. Now we have widespread testing of people who are only feeling mildly unwell or not even unwell at all, and we find 3k a day. I bet the multiplier between the real infection rate and the confirmed case rate now is much smaller that six months ago. Say it's x 5, which would mean 15k real cases yet hardly anyone is being hospitalised let alone dying of it. Millions of us routinely catch all sorts of viruses every year, yet we don't shut the country down because of it, we don't send everyone home in a workplace or school because one person went off sick with a bug. I really don't see what all the hysteria is about. It's normal for a certain amount of staff in any workplace to be off sick at any one time. At my work, 4 or 5% is normal but it fluctuates and can sometimes hit 20% at times. If there's high sick levels they try to boost the resources with working more overtime to keep on top of things.



DCLane said:


> called into the ASDA there. It was busy and around 5pm. Most people weren't wearing a face covering, no-one challenged them at the entrance, and there was no form of distance between customers. No different to early March.
> 
> No amount of rules / restrictions / guidelines / regulations will work if they're not collectively acted upon with enforcement.



I'm highly sceptical about the effectiveness of non-medical masks, especially when not worn properly. If anything they seem to encourage people to get closer to each other than they would normally! No-one wearing them in the pub but people mostly being sensible. In the big shops, most people are wearing them but then reaching right over each other only inches apart to get things off the shelf! I reckon it's safer in the pub!


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## classic33 (8 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Despite my local watering hole not being the most genteel of venues, you really won't get served if you look obviously pissed, you'll get told no more beer tonight, come back tomorrow when sober. Not just because of the licensing laws, but people who've had way too many can be right a pain in the arse and the staff would rather not have to try to eject them at closing time when they want to stay and carry on drinking.


But that's their right, who are you to say that they can't get drunk? 

I know bar staff who'd rather people observed the regulations currently in place, however unpopular. It means that they have greater job security. Not likely to have to shut again, and not likely to end up catching something that could see them having to take time off work. Simply because there's some who feel that their rights shouldn't count. They are only serving you after all, and you letting them do that is keeping them in employment.

You don't have to be drinking at the time, to be drunk on licensed premises. 




> *I'm highly sceptical about the effectiveness of non-medical masks*, especially when not worn properly. If anything they seem to encourage people to get closer to each other than they would normally! No-one wearing them in the pub but people mostly being sensible. In the big shops, most people are wearing them but then reaching right over each other only inches apart to get things off the shelf! I reckon it's safer in the pub!


You miss the point. Their use isn't to prevent you catching it. It's to stop you spreading it. People following simple hygiene can not be relied on. Covering your mouth when you cough or sneeze.


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I really don't see what all the hysteria is about.



It's not hysteria, it's a rational appraisal of what will happen if we return to normal, based on epidemiology. That's hundreds of thousands of deaths. The reason you can't see it is because you have pre-judged the conclusion you wish for. 



SkipdiverJohn said:


> I'm highly sceptical about the effectiveness of non-medical masks



I'm highly sceptical that you have appraised yourself of the evidence either way.


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## kingrollo (8 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Despite my local watering hole not being the most genteel of venues, you really won't get served if you look obviously pissed, you'll get told no more beer tonight, come back tomorrow when sober. Not just because of the licensing laws, but people who've had way too many can be right a pain in the arse and the staff would rather not have to try to eject them at closing time when they want to stay and carry on drinking.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I agree with you about number then and now - but:-

There was a point last year where the uk had zero covid cases. There was also a point somewhere perhaps between November and January where the UK had 1 covid case. From that point in April we got to a stage where 900 people a day were dying. Even with a full lockdown in place.

Now the last 2 days we have clocked up 6,000 cases - We are starting the surge from a much higher base than last year. This virus has trumped all worse case scenarios - So without some form of action who knows where will be in December.


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## fossyant (8 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> Unfortunately I agree. This evening I've been in Manchester at the velodrome and called into the ASDA there. It was busy and around 5pm. Most people weren't wearing a face covering, no-one challenged them at the entrance, and there was no form of distance between customers. No different to early March.



This is why these areas are high. Stockport - 99% are wearing masks in supermarkets and shops, that's less than 5 miles from the Velodrome. I have colleagues that live near Oldham and tell me no-one is following the rules there - that again is first hand. I'm lucky we seem to be behaving in my area, which shows why infection is the lowest and below national averages. That, of course, will change as we've had 15 schools in Manchester send student groups/bubbles home to isolate just yesterday.


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

Housing minister on rising numbers. 
"we all have to be very cautious"
Mr Jenrick told BBC Breakfast: "The virus is still very much with us, it's still concerning."He said if people followed the government's guidance "we should be able to continue to control the virus but we're going to have to be especially cautious as we go into the autumn and winter".
Mr Jenrick added there was a particular responsibility on younger people to follow government guidelines on Covid-19, so that infection rates would not spike again.
"There's a responsibility on younger people to not just stay at home, obviously to go out and go to work and to enjoy pubs and restaurants, but to do so in accordance with the guidelines."

So you've a responsibility not to kill your granny , stay in , go to work , call in the pub on the way home then a quick meal out. 
Glad that's cleared that up.


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## kingrollo (8 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Housing minister on rising numbers.
> "we all have to be very cautious"
> Mr Jenrick told BBC Breakfast: "The virus is still very much with us, it's still concerning."He said if people followed the government's guidance "we should be able to continue to control the virus but we're going to have to be especially cautious as we go into the autumn and winter".
> Mr Jenrick added there was a particular responsibility on younger people to follow government guidelines on Covid-19, so that infection rates would not spike again.
> ...



And the numbers are rising because they aren't doing that. .....lets hope they start now ...a new catchphrase should do the trick.

I would also say the responsibility is on the pubs and restaurants more than young people.


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## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> So you've a responsibility not to kill your granny , stay in , go to work , call in the pub on the way home then a quick meal out.
> Glad that's cleared that up.



I see people wearing masks, but people appear in much larger groups of 6 to 12 in pubs and restaurants and distance has gone out the window. I think this may be the cryptic bit about guidelines.

I don't think portions of the population have reduced their social contacts by 75%.


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## Tanis8472 (8 Sep 2020)

Skate park near me, recently opened (Newly built) must have 50+ kids in large groups. No face coverings etc.


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## mjr (8 Sep 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Skate park near me, recently opened (Neely built) must have 50+ kids in large groups. No face coverings etc.


Sports groups may be larger during the sport. Cycling UK now allowing 15s as long as you keep distance at starts/stops. I don't know what Skate England or whatever says.


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## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

And as if by magic this story appears the last few mins

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-covid-rules-for-social-gatherings-in-england

Social gathering size, being looked at.


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Sports groups may be larger during the sport. Cycling UK now allowing 15s as long as you keep distance at starts/stops. I don't know what Skate England or whatever says.



Junior football running as normal (outdoors of course). I'd guess the average match has ~50 people involved


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## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Junior football running as normal (outdoors of course). I'd guess the average match has ~50 people involved



How? Do they have a licence for it?


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## icowden (8 Sep 2020)

Easily. Why would they need a license? No-one has any idea what the rules are now. They are too broad and too complex. A significant number of people now think the rules are basically "wear masks in shops", and as long as you put something over your mouth, that'll do.


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## Joey Shabadoo (8 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> And the numbers are rising because they aren't doing that. .....lets hope they start now ...a new catchphrase should do the trick.


Wear a farking mask
Wash your farking hands
Keep your farking distance 

Catchy.


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## classic33 (8 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> And the numbers are rising because they aren't doing that. .....lets hope they start now ...a new catchphrase should do the trick.
> 
> I would also say the responsibility is on the pubs and restaurants more than young people.


With regards leaving contact details, there's some who seem to delight in giving false details. Names and numbers.


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> How? Do they have a licence for it?



No idea, but this is proper FA league, so definitely approved.


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## fossyant (8 Sep 2020)

Just had feedback from a Uni Colleague that's been in for face to face teaching. Feels very safe, Uni has it all addressed and they felt comfortable teaching, until you see the students sat about chatting without masks on (Nursing of all). As suspected, once out of the 'controlled spaces' it's a free for all. At least the staff are feeling safe and being kept safe.


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## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> OR "don't be like John"



John's behaviours are in the large range of normal. He isn't any different from MntnMan62 or the person on here who visited the pub which had a confirmed infection around the time they visited and didn't isolate. Or the person on here ranting about behaviour, but went on holiday! It's just John's more open and honest about his behaviours which gets him stick.


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## matticus (8 Sep 2020)

Well said.

I think a few of you just want John to sod off (or shut-up). That won't change his views, and it won't change the thousands like him, right-or-wrong.
Deal with it - he's being a lot nicer than many on here.


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## matticus (8 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Its often the case when someone posts obnoxious, self centred posts that some will come on and say ' actually hes not so bad'


Then you'll have to deal with that, too!! :P
(n.b. I never said that I agree with him!)




> I don't mind him having his say - but his views don't bear any kind of close scrutiny and is in general a paid up member of "the experts talk a load of bollox" brigade which is rife in today's society.


That's all good.


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## Joey Shabadoo (8 Sep 2020)

I think it's very possible to bring back a semblance of normality, but only with hand washing, masks and distancing. It's not the socialising that's causing problems, it's the ignoring basic precautions. I've eaten out in places where everybody acted like an adult and there were no issues.


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## kingrollo (8 Sep 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I think it's very possible to bring back a semblance of normality, but only with hand washing, masks and distancing. It's not the socialising that's causing problems, it's the ignoring basic precautions. I've eaten out in places where everybody acted like an adult and there were no issues.



Yes so did I - Once - the next couple of times they had forgotten about it - both times somebody was seated right behind me - clearly breaching SD guidelines - leaving contact details wasn't bothered with - the final pub I went to had nothing in place at all - even the bar was run pre covid style.


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## Beebo (8 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Junior football running as normal (outdoors of course). I'd guess the average match has ~50 people involved


Rugby is no where near starting again. It’s 
just basic training with very little contact and no matches against opponents for the foreseeable future. 
im not sure how football team are doing it
Parkrun hasn’t even started yet.


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## PK99 (8 Sep 2020)

Given the praise in these parts for the NZ prime minister and her response to the Pandemic, this analysis of NZ politics from the Political Compass is interesting.

https://www.politicalcompass.org/nz2020


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## classic33 (8 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> Well said.
> 
> I think a few of you just want John to sod off (or shut-up). That won't change his views, and it won't change the thousands like him, right-or-wrong.
> Deal with it - he's being a lot nicer than many on here.


If I wanted them to "sod off or shut up", I'd not have asked them questions, expecting answers.

And it's the "1,000's like him" that are dragging this out for the millions complying with the regulations in place.

We have people who seem to think that leaving false contact details is fun. Would they still think it was fun if they were to have been in close contact with someone who was later hospitalized with covid-19. False details given meant they couldn't be contacted.

Adding this bit
Found out earlier today that the person who I worked with has been told he works his last day this Friday. Along with a few more. Time with the company counts for nothing. 

As far as he knows, it's down to him now being classed as "high risk". How fickle fate is.

@Beebo, just been announced that parkruns are to restart next month.


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Sep 2020)

Junior football guidance. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjABegQICRAH&usg=AOvVaw2cpfTqyaO_dWFVgoibRcMR

Really just "get on with it outdoors"


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## Adam4868 (8 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Junior football guidance.
> 
> https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjABegQICRAH&usg=AOvVaw2cpfTqyaO_dWFVgoibRcMR
> 
> Really just "get on with it outdoors"


To be fair getting on with it outdoors surely has to be better than indoors ? Kids are back at school anyway,it would be foolish to think there actually going to socially distance.Once outside it's buisness as usual.


----------



## Rezillo (8 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> With regards leaving contact details, there's some who seem to delight in giving false details. Names and numbers.



A pub near us has closed because the landlord has tested positive. The notice outside does not say why the premises is closed. The only news of this was on a local village Facebook page, where a number of posters were unhappy because he had been personally serving drinks and food to the table while waiting for his test results. A friend of mine has ended up self-isolating along with his family and student children.

Because of the critical posts, the entire topic has been deleted. There is nothing about the closure in the local press so anyone who signed in as Mr D Duck will have no way of knowing that they are at risk and soon possibly a risk to others. 

Mind you, only a few of those who did sign in ok had been contacted by Track and Trace before the Facebook topic was deleted.


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## Slick (8 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> To be fair getting on with it outdoors surely has to be better than indoors ? Kids are back at school anyway,it would be foolish to think there actually going to socially distance.Once outside it's buisness as usual.


Maybe not quite business as usual but certainly lots more room to manoeuvre as other sports have proven. As usual, it's what you do before and after that can be troublesome, like changing rooms and the like.


----------



## mjr (8 Sep 2020)

Beebo said:


> Parkrun hasn’t even started yet.


That's curious but I see that's true. Something looking like it has been happening in its place in the town park for more then a month!


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## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Has he ? - He strikes me a serious contender for obnoxious poster of the year.
> 
> Its often the case when someone posts obnoxious, self centred posts that some will come on and say ' actually hes not so bad'



I have not seen much to indicate to me that john behaves very irresponsibly. What he says is different to those others yes. How he behaves. Nope. His behaviours are in the large range of normal, with those theorised superspreaders making up 20% of infected and 80% of infecting others, out there somewhere. It's just a distraction.


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## Adam4868 (8 Sep 2020)

Slick said:


> Maybe not quite business as usual but certainly lots more room to manoeuvre as other sports have proven. As usual, it's what you do before and after that can be troublesome, like changing rooms and the like.


Sorry I meant once our of school so to speak.I live close enough to a local high school and once out the gates it's a free for all


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## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I think it's very possible to bring back a semblance of normality, but only with hand washing, masks and distancing. It's not the socialising that's causing problems, it's the ignoring basic precautions. I've eaten out in places where everybody acted like an adult and there were no issues.



If you take higher risk activities like pubs, the thing with the whole contact tracing is there is no way of encouraging more responsible behaviours. Someone who is with 1 other person sat outside for 15 mins is treated the same as someone sat indoors on a table packed with 12 people for four hours. The pubs with staff none wearing masks are treated the same as those all in masks and visors at all times. Some pubs everyone is told to isolate, others like a bloke on here where there was a positive test was not told to.


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## kingrollo (8 Sep 2020)

Pubs & Restuarants in bolton only allowed to serve takeaway. and will close at 10PM.

A face saving way of closing them - think this will be pretty much all over the uk in a couple of months.


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## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Pubs & Restuarants in bolton only allowed to serve takeaway. and will close at 10PM.
> 
> A face saving way of closing them - think this will be pretty much all over the uk in a couple of months.



It is one thing I have wondered here. Many pubs are only open to 10pm anyway. However other places must be open as I hear drunks singing very loudly after midnight sometimes.

P.S. re: takeaway only in Bolton -The numbers in bolton are very high so a bit puzzled on that.


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## kingrollo (8 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> It is one thing I have wondered here. Many pubs are only open to 10pm anyway. However other places must be open as I hear drunks singing very loudly after midnight sometimes.
> 
> *P.S. re: takeaway only in Bolton -The numbers in bolton are very high so a bit puzzled on that.*


Why ??? its to stop people spending time indoor in a pub/restaurant - would seem a logical step to me.


----------



## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Why ??? its to stop people spending time indoor in a pub/restaurant - would seem a logical step to me.



Leicester had similar figures and far more robust restrictions were taken.

I presume they mean takeaway beer as well. But I think banning people sat indoors would be more sensible if you are keeping them open.


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## kingrollo (8 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Leicester had similar figures and far more robust restrictions were taken.
> 
> I presume they mean takeaway beer as well. But I think banning people sat indoors would be more sensible if you are keeping them open.



I suppose they are calibrating the response - If limiting opening hours achieves the desired result then fine.


----------



## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

BBC's take on Sturgeon 

*'Only visit one pub per night' warns Sturgeon*
Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, says evidence points towards house gatherings having made the biggest contribution to the spread of coronavirus across Greater Glasgow and Clyde.
They are also where older and more vulnerable people are likely to socialise, she points out.
But some transmission is also happening in pubs and restaurants, and that is being kept under close review, added Ms Sturgeon.
She said those going out to such venues needed to be responsible for keeping to the guidelines - not meeting more than eight people from a maximum of three households going out to the pub or restaurant.
They must also socially distance from people from other households.
The strong advice is to avoid busy bars where social distancing is difficult and to only visit one bar in an evening, Ms Sturgeon says


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## Adam4868 (8 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> It is one thing I have wondered here. Many pubs are only open to 10pm anyway. However other places must be open as I hear drunks singing very loudly after midnight sometimes.
> 
> P.S. re: takeaway only in Bolton -The numbers in bolton are very high so a bit puzzled on that.


Here in Blackpool it's never been as busy...there's nothing to stop someone from Bolton coming here to party/drink.Which has been happening since restrictions relaxed.
I'm sure I posted before but was in Llandudno a few weeks ago and that was the same.Im guessing most who don't fancy airports are having a break in this country.Havent a clue what the infection rate is here though ?


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## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I suppose they are calibrating the response - If limiting opening hours achieves the desired result then fine.



I'll be awesomely happy if in two months' time nationwide the limitations on life are only takeaways and 10pm shutting times.


----------



## classic33 (8 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Here in Blackpool it's never been as busy...there's nothing to stop someone from Bolton coming here to party/drink.Which has been happening since restrictions relaxed.
> I'm sure I posted before but was in Llandudno a few weeks ago and that was the same.Im guessing most who don't fancy airports are having a break in this country.Havent a clue what the infection rate is here though ?


194 deaths since March with Covid-19 on the death certificate.
http://www.blackpooljsna.org.uk/COVID-19/Blackpool-Coronavirus-Weekly-Summary.aspx


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## kingrollo (8 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'll be awesomely happy if in two months' time nationwide the limitations on life are only takeaways and 10pm shutting times.



Its a question of whats politically acceptable. Do they have the brass neck to just let it run through unabated ? - Think it also depends on what other countries do. Right up until lockdown members of the UK government were telling us lockdowns didn't work.


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## mjr (8 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I presume they mean takeaway beer as well. But I think banning people sat indoors would be more sensible if you are keeping them open.


I think you're making the mistake of expecting any coherence and consistency from the Johnson administration again!

They'll probably justify it as being fair to those pubs who have no beer gardens or only scummy ones, ignoring all the village and suburbs Free Houses getting farked by it. They only care about big chains, don't they? Especially ones beginning with W or GK that display sympathetic adverts to passers-by.


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## mjr (8 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Right up until lockdown members of the UK government were telling us lockdowns didn't work.


Whereas now it's the Constitution Minister's spouse telling us lockdowns are outbreaks of mental illness or something like that...


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## fossyant (8 Sep 2020)

Bolton restrictions also no meeting any other households in public outdoor places.

Where does this put people travelling to Colleges, Uni and work ?


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## classic33 (8 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Its a question of whats politically acceptable. Do they have the brass neck to just let it run through unabated ? - Think it also depends on what other countries do. Right up until lockdown members of the UK government were telling us lockdowns didn't work.


Ireland took the decision to close all bars on the Saturday before Saint Patrick's Day. They were still open here though.


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## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Its a question of whats politically acceptable. Do they have the brass neck to just let it run through unabated ? - Think it also depends on what other countries do. Right up until lockdown members of the UK government were telling us lockdowns didn't work.



It's all politics. Our strategy is pubs, jolly holidays and schools. Summer is at an end. Schools are back. Pubs are back. So what do we do now?

It's perception of what other countries are doing. One of the problems with Spain is that's clocked high numbers that have been slowly rising for weeks and it's had little coverage here. Just returning tourists saying it's great, we were on a sun lounge and everyone was wearing masks, it's safe in Spain. Spain may be somewhere around the cusp of mega-death-carnage around the corner. We may be about 3-4 weeks behind where they are.

In terms of the UK the government's advisors have said for months they felt it'll pick up in September, but be very problematic around November. They seem to think that rhinovirus and rsz will have some kind of viral blocking, then indoors a plenty and flu and coronavirus can be had at the same time means big pick up in November.

The one I can't quite work out is that in quite a few other countries nightclubs seem to have reopened or small number of licences.


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## classic33 (8 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Bolton restrictions also no meeting any other households in public outdoor places.
> 
> Where does this put people travelling to Colleges, Uni and work ?


Locally, they're removing the bus timetables and replacing them with other ways of getting the information, plus a very clear warning on travelling without a mask.

Plans afoot for a stricter travel policy?


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

Talking to a friend today who a CEO of a bowling centre. Knowing him as I do he's done everything he can be safe the guidelines are making it hard to stay that way. Just take face coverings the law requires you wear one when you enter and when you're bowling. Step into the bar or snack bar you don't. Playing on a fruit machine you don't step away from it and you do unless it's one in the bar. Staff have no hope of enforcing if they challenge someone they just look at the guy access sat in the bar and go and sit in bar. Test and trace they don't have a hope they just refuse. The issues go on and on he's no idea how long they will open when others placers are just not going anything. If they close they won't be reopening as it is come October some staff will have to go. 
He will do what ever he has to but wishers they'd just make it all a legal requirement. The other issue is the local council list of requirement don't match the government ones. When he asked which is it then they just told him to referrer to the government guidelines. 

He's not surprised by furlough being misused you just signed up told them the wage and they paid up. Now however it's part government part employer. It's a nightmare to work out and fill in. The next misuse waiting the wings is eat out to help out. That as it turned out had no checks either. You just told them you'd sold x and got paid days later.


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## pawl (8 Sep 2020)

Just seen a report that Bosworth College in Desford has recorded a student diagnosed as Covid 19 positive 

The college takes students from theHinckley Bosworth area as we’ll as some areas of Leicester.


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## SpokeyDokey (8 Sep 2020)

*Mod note:*

Some posts have been deleted re attacking fellow member.

Please revisit the site rules regarding this if needs be.

Just because another member has a very different viewpoint does not give anyone the right on this board to label the member 'obnoxious' etc.

If you do not agree with the posts of another member then stick to debating the issues raised therein and if you can't do that then put the member on your ignore list.

If you feel any posts breach the site rules then please report them as usual.

Thank you in advance for your co-operation.


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

Local lock downs are here to stay for some time it's not good enough to just say x is lockdown then day after day drip feeding in or by the way we are adding this to list of don't do's. They are messy enough without extra mud on top. 
If the meeting up guidelines are under review why not review the whole thing? If they change it will end up as just a delete this and paste in that. Which will lead to even more confusion and conflicting information. All the guidelines need a reboot along with the messaging. 
They are a total mess anyway and clearly don't work so most would welcome a fresh simple , clear set of rules. With clear set of enforcements to match. 
It's way past the time of debating if we need a simple set of levels linked to set's of rules. It work's in New Zealand they say x is going into lockdown level y and people know what it means but more to point they know what to do and what they get for breaking them. Nothing to stop one being drown up for business , school , uni, ect too that clearly lays out what extra requirements each level means for them. 
We still need guidelines with real detail to back them up but one's that are black and white not "it's recommended" But for most day to day life the simple stuff will be fine. 

The governments pick and mix approach which mostly has been to pick the nice ones and leave the bad one behind. Even if they are the right thing to. Is not going to keep us out the brown stuff for long come winter. What ever they do they betting do pretty bloody quick. Not just for the public health but for the economy.


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## SkipdiverJohn (8 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> We have people who seem to think that leaving false contact details is fun. Would they still think it was fun if they were to have been in close contact with someone who was later hospitalized with covid-19. False details given meant they couldn't be contacted.



Anyone giving dodgy details obviously doesn't want to be contacted. There could be lots of reasons why, from being wanted by the police to having an extra-marital affair and have told their OH they are somewhere else, not in the pub/restaurant with their bit on the side. You have to remember all the irregular and deceitful behaviours that go on haven't been virtuously put on hold because of the virus. People who are doing things they shouldn't, seeing people they shouldn't be seeing, or frequenting venues on the sly, are not going to give out their details in case a track & trace response results in them being caught out.
If I've been in contact with someone who ends up in hospital with the virus, one of three things is going to happen. 
1) I catch it and it makes me ill, in which case I don't need tracing and telling by anyone else about it, because I'll know all about it pretty soon anyway!
2) I don't catch it at all.
3) I catch it but it doesn't make me feel ill.


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

Long covid now officially exists in the UK policy. Long way to go on the substance but it's now no way of getting away from it. 
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...lth-effects/covid-19-long-term-health-effects


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> 1) I catch it and it makes me ill, in which case I don't need tracing and telling by anyone else about it, because I'll know all about it pretty soon anyway!
> 2) I don't catch it at all.
> 3) I catch it but it doesn't make me feel ill.



1. Yes you do, because you will be infectious before you are symptomatic
3. And you will be infectious nonetheless


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## SkipdiverJohn (8 Sep 2020)

The fundamental problem with the tracing system is they are just trying to contact people by phone and tell them to isolate because they just *might* have caught the virus, rather than saying "we want to pop over and give you a virus test to see if you are positive or not".
Expecting a whole venue full of punters to isolate just in case because one person contracted the virus is absurd. People have bills to pay and livings to earn. If they want public buy-in on this system it has to be on the basis you only get asked to isolate if you actually test positive or develop virus symptoms.


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## Rusty Nails (8 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> 1. Yes you do, because you will be infectious before you are symptomatic
> 3. And you will be infectious nonetheless



But that's OK. It will just be someone else's problem.


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## classic33 (8 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The fundamental problem with the tracing system is they are just trying to contact people by phone and tell them to isolate because they just *might* have caught the virus, rather than saying "we want to pop over and give you a virus test to see if you are positive or not".
> Expecting a whole venue full of punters to isolate just in case because one person contracted the virus is absurd. People have bills to pay and livings to earn. If they want public buy-in on this system it has to be on the basis you only get asked to isolate if you actually test positive or develop virus symptoms.


Unless you get tested, you'll have no way of knowing though.

They don't come to you either, you go to them(testing station). You might even be booked in for the test at a particular testing station. 
These stations tend to be out in the open, you do the test on yourself. Everything gets double bagged, before being sent off.

As for self isolating, you were all for it when it was those in the high risk groups. Many of us had a normal life, or as normal as the condition(s) allowed. Some of us even worked, what with bills to pay and what not.


----------



## Salty seadog (8 Sep 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Wear a farking mask
> Wash your farking hands
> Keep your farking distance
> 
> Catchy.



Work on your spelling dude. I mean what even is farking?


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## Joey Shabadoo (8 Sep 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Work on your spelling dude. I mean what even is farking?


I don't know, it's been so long...


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## roadrash (8 Sep 2020)

I see it all the time in wigan...im alright jack , i will do whatever i want, it really boils my piss , if your actions only affected you then fair enough but they dont .

i really dont understand this wear a mask in the shop , but the people working in the shop doesnt need one, why not , are we as customers supposed to magically believe they could not possibly be infected, to hi-light this point , suppose i work in a shop, i dont need to wear a mask, if i nip into the shop next door i need to wear one, does the virus know if i am a customer or worker, to be honest all the guidlines or rules are a total mess, i will continue to wear a mask outside of my house and limit contact with others not from my household, the guidlines are confusing bolox ,
message to boris....dont advise/ask people to do something , it just doesnt work.


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## oldwheels (8 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Unless you get tested, you'll have no way of knowing though.
> 
> They don't come to you either, you go to them(testing station). You might even be booked in for the test at a particular testing station.
> These stations tend to be out in the open, you do the test on yourself. Everything gets double bagged, before being sent off.
> ...


The testing system seems to be a bit of a mess. Somebody near Oban told to go to Fort William tho' they got a test eventually in Oban no problem. Some in southern England being told to go to Inverness and in some cases Northern Ireland. The computer system just seems to pick a testing station at random with no attention to geography.


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## DCLane (8 Sep 2020)

A friend's currently having to quarantine in Northern Ireland and has been allocated a test ... in Llandudno


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## Adam4868 (8 Sep 2020)

After me talking about it today,just reading the local rag tonight and three bars and two resteraunts close to me are closing due to covid.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (8 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The fundamental problem with the tracing system is they are just trying to contact people by phone and tell them to isolate because they just *might* have caught the virus, rather than saying "we want to pop over and give you a virus test to see if you are positive or not".
> Expecting a whole venue full of punters to isolate just in case because one person contracted the virus is absurd. People have bills to pay and livings to earn. If they want public buy-in on this system it has to be on the basis you only get asked to isolate if you actually test positive or develop virus symptoms.



[sigh]

The virus takes time - variable from case to case - to incubate. 

So testing does not help. Only isolation.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (8 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> A friend's currently having to quarantine in Northern Ireland and has been allocated a test ... in Llandudno



Should go to Bangor instead


----------



## classic33 (8 Sep 2020)

roadrash said:


> I see it all the time in wigan...im alright jack , i will do whatever i want, it really boils my piss , if your actions only affected you then fair enough but they dont .
> 
> *i really dont understand this wear a mask in the shop , but the people working in the shop doesnt need one, why not *, are we as customers supposed to magically believe they could not possibly be infected, to hi-light this point , suppose i work in a shop, i dont need to wear a mask, if i nip into the shop next door i need to wear one, does the virus know if i am a customer or worker, to be honest all the guidlines or rules are a total mess, i will continue to wear a mask outside of my house and limit contact with others not from my household, the guidlines are confusing bolox ,
> message to boris....dont advise/ask people to do something , it just doesnt work.


Encountered this the other way round today. The shop assistant was partially deaf, behind a plastic screen, and having trouble seeing what people were saying. This down to mask wearing customers. 
I've come across the problem the other way round, customer having problems seeing what the assistant was saying.

She was however at work, on the shop floor, not the warehouse where she usually worked packing orders.


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## roadrash (8 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Encountered this the other way round today. The shop assistant was partially deaf, behind a plastic screen, and having trouble seeing what people were saying. This down to mask wearing customers.
> I've come across the problem the other way round, customer having problems seeing what the assistant was saying.
> 
> She was however at work, on the shop floor, not the warehouse where she usually worked packing orders.



must be horrible for people who rely on lip reading


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

oldwheels said:


> The testing system seems to be a bit of a mess. Somebody near Oban told to go to Fort William tho' they got a test eventually in Oban no problem. Some in southern England being told to go to Inverness and in some cases Northern Ireland. The computer system just seems to pick a testing station at random with no attention to geography.


Hancock say's it now fixed and as a 75 mile limit in place now. What not clear is if they use map distance or as crow fly's. 
Using government publish real test example of distance traveled the BBC had a look. It look's to be latter though the DHSC won't confirm it


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

roadrash said:


> must be horrible for people who rely on lip reading


The government have just approved the use of see through ones in the NHS for anyone working with people who lip read. 
https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/clear-face-masks-approved-support-patients-hearing-loss/


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## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> [sigh]
> 
> The virus takes time - variable from case to case - to incubate.
> 
> So testing does not help. Only isolation.



Testing does help, it's just when. It'll pick up 7% of cases on day zero. However the system assumes that the virus flowed the other way from the positive test to the others. If it flowed the other way it'll pick up more than 7% of cases. Many civilised countries test 2nd nodes and do so more than once. We test 2nd nodes here, just on an ad hoc basis when a local outbreak scares the shoot out of people.

Testing also gives authorities extra info to go on. It also enforces confidence in the system which is absolutely crucial. Without confidence less will isolate.


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## mjr (8 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> After me talking about it today,just reading the local rag tonight and three bars and two resteraunts close to me are closing due to covid.


Outbreaks or business disruption?


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## Adam4868 (8 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Outbreaks or business disruption?


Due to Covid outbreaks.
This is the headline...
Bars and restaurants in Poulton announce closure due to 'rise of positive Covid-19 cases in the area'


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Testing does help, it's just when. It'll pick up 7% of cases on day zero. However the system assumes that the virus flowed the other way from the positive test to the others. If it flowed the other way it'll pick up more than 7% of cases. Many civilised countries test 2nd nodes and do so more than once. We test 2nd nodes here, just on an ad hoc basis when a local outbreak scares the shoot out of people.
> 
> Testing also gives authorities extra info to go on. It also enforces confidence in the system which is absolutely crucial. Without confidence less will isolate.



You'd think the penny would have dropped by now Hancock and co bang on about how testing is so important but still have no idea how to make it work and what you need to do with the data. It would be interesting to know the the true infection numbers had it worked from day one. Confidence is key sadly it's been lacking from the start. The behaviour advisory group of SAGE has been highlighting the need for the govermant to start rebuilding trust. Not just in testing but the whole covid response. The recent don't kill your granny won't have helped the rebuild. If they ever do get round to a rebuild that is


----------



## mjr (8 Sep 2020)

BBC announcing that the legal limit for gatherings anywhere will be cut to 6 from Monday but there will be exemption for some sports (who knows if cycling is one or not) and Boris will announce the details tomorrow (once Dom has told him?)

So will this affect cinemas, football games, pubs, restaurants... Or does paying still protect against coronavirus?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> BBC announcing that the legal limit for gatherings anywhere will be cut to 6 from Monday but there will be exemption for some sports (who knows if cycling is one or not) and Boris will announce the details tomorrow (once Dom has told him?)
> 
> So will this affect cinemas, football games, pubs, restaurants... Or does paying still protect against coronavirus?


What's the deal on schools? Classes with only 5 pupils and a teacher?


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

Social gatherings of more than 6 banned from 14th sadly yet again it come with areas of grey 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54081131


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> What's the deal on schools? Classes with only 5 pupils and a teacher?


They are exemption for covering that includes workplaces, sports , covid secure weddings and funerals full list tomorrow


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## Adam4868 (8 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> They are exemption for covering that includes workplaces, sports , covid secure weddings and funerals full list tomorrow


10 of you going to the pub,6 at one table 4 at another ? Pubs/resteraunts still packed but only with tables of six...It's not really going to work now I don't think.Theres been so many mixed messages and confusion that most are going to think feck it,I'll do what I want.


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> 10 of you going to the pub,6 at one table 4 at another ? Pubs/resteraunts still packed but only with tables of six...It's not really going to work now I don't think.Theres been so many mixed messages and confusion that most are going to think feck it,I'll do what I want.


Just a new set of areas of grey like every thing else.


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

Oh just when it can't get worse newsnight reports new public messaging is coming. 
Face, hands , space 
cover your face, wash your hands and make space 
Now we are screwed


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## CanucksTraveller (8 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> What's the deal on schools? Classes with only 5 pupils and a teacher?



It applies to social gatherings, which schools aren't. I think it's pretty important that kids go to school, especially given that they haven't been in 6 months, but it's not important for 15 or 30 people to have a house party, for example. 

It seems pretty logical to me.


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## marinyork (8 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> 10 of you going to the pub,6 at one table 4 at another ? Pubs/resteraunts still packed but only with tables of six...It's not really going to work now I don't think.Theres been so many mixed messages and confusion that most are going to think feck it,I'll do what I want.



I'm more optimistic. This sort of arrangement has been going on for the last month or so with 12s, 18s, 30s in pubs. It'll now be easier to enforce. 

The groups of way bigger than six thing has gone on in parks since late May/early June and that's now easier to enforce if the police deem it worth it.


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## DCLane (8 Sep 2020)

Unless it's enforced then no amount of 'guidelines' will make a bit of difference.

Near me it's just ignored. And will continue to be ignored.


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## CanucksTraveller (8 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> 10 of you going to the pub





tom73 said:


> Just a new set of areas of grey like every thing else.


Well no, Adam's whole post falls down on sentence one doesn't it. It's not remotely grey. If ten people plan to go to the pub together, and plan to circumvent things, then that's ten dickheads who haven't learned anything in the last 6 months. 

If we all agree to you know, just be sensible and follow guidance, then there's no issue. When we all try and be the exception, when we all try to find a way around it, when we insist that we're clever, and the guidance is wah, wah, too hard to follow, and we do our own thing, that's when we have an issue. That's not the government's fault, that's the easy blame game. It's the people who must always be contrary and niggly that are the issue. Every day I go shopping I'm having people reach across me within inches, I see people not wearing masks because they found a way around it. Come on, 1.5 metres at least, it's not hard. 

Forks sake, this virus control thing isn't difficult, but some people would over complicate a game of snap if they had a say.


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## Adam4868 (8 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm more optimistic. This sort of arrangement has been going on for the last month or so with 12s, 18s, 30s in pubs. It'll now be easier to enforce.
> 
> The groups of way bigger than six thing has gone on in parks since late May/early June and that's now easier to enforce if the police deem it worth it.


I know what you mean,but I'm not as optimistic for round my way.Looking like it's going to be a busy weekend with everyone on the piss !


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## classic33 (8 Sep 2020)

roadrash said:


> must be horrible for people who rely on lip reading


Which from talking to shop staff, is why some of them aren't wearing them. Especially if they are sat the plastic screen on the till. They look to neither side, just straight ahead. 

There's been complaints from some people that they can't see what is being said. And staff are caught in the middle of it.


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## Adam4868 (8 Sep 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Well no, Adam's whole post falls down on sentence one doesn't it. It's not remotely grey. If ten people plan to go to the pub together, and plan to circumvent things, then that's ten dickheads who haven't learned anything in the last 6 months.
> 
> If we all agree to you know, just be sensible and follow guidance, then there's no issue. When we all try and be the exception, when we all try to find a way around it, when we insist that we're clever, and the guidance is wah, wah, too hard to follow, and we do our own thing, that's when we have an issue. That's not the government's fault, that's the easy blame game. It's the people who must always be contrary and niggly that are the issue. Every day I go shopping I'm having people reach across me within inches, I see people not wearing masks because they found a way around it. Come on, 1.5 metres at least, it's not hard.
> 
> Forks sake, this virus control thing isn't difficult, but some people would over complicate a game of snap if they had a say.


But as we've seen, to a lot of people being sensible is over.Why give us five days ? Do it tonight, immediately ?


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## classic33 (8 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> What's the deal on schools? Classes with only 5 pupils and a teacher?


If that is the case, the new sixth form college that opened this week, is in trouble. Teacher and twenty plus pupils in a room that measures 20 foot by 30 foot, no face coverings of any sort, and no distance between many of them. Text books are being shared.


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## tom73 (8 Sep 2020)

I agree some just look for ways. With this we won't know what the detail is until the full list of what's allowed come's out tomorrow. 
Just stick to no more than 6 expect school ect and when at work. The more if's and but's you add the more the massage is lost. 
In the end once the government ministers get talking about it that's really going mess it up.


----------



## PK99 (9 Sep 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> It applies to social gatherings, which schools aren't. I think it's pretty important that kids go to school, especially given that they haven't been in 6 months, but it's not important for 15 or 30 people to have a house party, for example.
> 
> It seems pretty logical to me.



I agree.

And find it sad, but eminently predictable, that this thread which started out as a useful and informative source of Covid info and views has, like so many threads here and elsewhere, become predominantly a silo where a small group of folks who agree with each other exchange cynical self affirmatory messages of agreement and take an overtly cynical view of any and everything the government does. C'est la vie. C'est la cycle chat.

I used to come here for information and ideas, now I pop in occasionally when I'm bored. And am always disappointed.


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## classic33 (9 Sep 2020)

Given how often it's been mentioned, maybe it's time to do what they did during 1918-1920.

Wonder how people would react if police responded in similar fashion over the non wearing of face masks?


_"Now as then, public health interventions are the first line of defense against an epidemic in the absence of a vaccine. These measures include closing schools, shops, and restaurants; placing restrictions on transportation; mandating social distancing, and banning public gatherings.

Of course, getting citizens to comply with such orders is another story: In 1918, a San Francisco health officer shot three people when one refused to wear a mandatory face mask. In Arizona, police handed out $10 fines for those caught without the protective gear."_

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/


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## marinyork (9 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Oh just when it can't get worse newsnight reports new public messaging is coming.
> Face, hands , space
> cover your face, wash your hands and make space
> Now we are screwed



Sounds like tea time for toddlers. Put a bib on, wash your hands and make space for tea.


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## SkipdiverJohn (9 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Testing also gives authorities extra info to go on. It also enforces confidence in the system which is absolutely crucial. Without confidence less will isolate.



If you want testing to work, it has to be done very locally, so that means the tester going to the patient or the test location being within walking distance. It's no good giving out appointments at test locations miles away from where somewhere lives. Not everyone has a car, or can afford to use a tank of petrol getting there, or even has the time.
I know several people who are not going to get tested or isolate under any circumstances apart from if they get the virus and it makes them too unwell to physically be able to go about their normal routines. Some of these people get paid day rate in their jobs. If they don't go to work, they don't earn any money. They aren't going to take a whole day out travelling a hundred miles to a test centre and they aren't going to isolate and lose income unless they have got cast iron proof they are carrying the virus. 

Expecting large numbers of people to isolate "just in case" is a very inefficient and economically disruptive method. Most of those being contacted probably haven't got the virus anyway, so the blunderbus approach merely stops healthy non-infected people from earning a living and so discourages people from giving their details. If you want isolation to work, it has to be targeted at those who have actually been tested and proved to be an infection risk, not expecting 50 people to lose two weeks wages just because one or two of them _might_ have the virus - but the authorities can't be bothered to make the effort to find out which ones actually have it and which ones don't.


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## classic33 (9 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If you want testing to work, it has to be done very locally, so that means the tester going to the patient or the test location being within walking distance. It's no good giving out appointments at test locations miles away from where somewhere lives. Not everyone has a car, or can afford to use a tank of petrol getting there, or even has the time.
> I know several people who are not going to get tested or isolate under any circumstances apart from if they get the virus and it makes them too unwell to physically be able to go about their normal routines. Some of these people get paid day rate in their jobs. If they don't go to work, they don't earn any money. They aren't going to take a whole day out travelling a hundred miles to a test centre and they aren't going to isolate and lose income unless they have got cast iron proof they are carrying the virus.
> 
> Expecting large numbers of people to isolate "just in case" is a very inefficient and economically disruptive method. Most of those being contacted probably haven't got the virus anyway, so the blunderbus approach merely stops healthy non-infected people from earning a living and so discourages people from giving their details. If you want isolation to work, it has to be targeted at those who have actually been tested and proved to be an infection risk, not expecting 50 people to lose two weeks wages just because one or two of them _might_ have the virus - but the authorities can't be bothered to make the effort to find out which ones actually have it and which ones don't.


You're at odds with yourself on isolating. It's okay if others, in the high risk groups have to do so. They apparently don't work, spend anything or have bills to pay. Some of us in that group are in through no fault of our own.

But, if you, who aren't currently in the high risk group have to isolate it's wrong. You being "economically active", in your eyes, being more important than those who are just as active working from home and shopping from home.

I've tried to find the piece about the man who was fined £500 & 14 days inside for knowingly carrying/transmitting a communicable disease, but failed. If it's been done once, expect similar to happen again. Maybe, when a person has been hit hard enough in the pocket, they'll realise they were wrong.


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## classic33 (9 Sep 2020)

@SkipdiverJohn, question regarding the people who have said they will not be tested under any circumstances, unless they have the virus. How will they know for certain, without being tested?


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## SkipdiverJohn (9 Sep 2020)

What I said is they won't isolate unless they have the virus. That means either they get a positive test result or they feel unwell with the sort of symptoms associated with the virus.
If they feel ok, and they haven't had a positive test result, they aren't going to isolate no matter what.


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## classic33 (9 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> What I said is they won't isolate unless they have the virus. That means either they get a positive test result or they feel unwell with the sort of symptoms associated with the virus.
> If they feel ok, and they haven't had a positive test result, they aren't going to isolate no matter what.


Not quite
_"I know several people who are not going to get tested or isolate under any circumstances apart from if they get the virus and it makes them too unwell to physically be able to go about their normal routines."_

Without being tested for it, they'll never be certain they have it, so they won't be tested.


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## SkipdiverJohn (9 Sep 2020)

Put it like this, they are not going to travel a considerable distance to get tested at their own expense and in their own time, so the only way they will take a test is either the postal kits or if the tester comes to them. If you have virus symptoms and feel ill, you probably have it or something else that's nasty.
All those of you who spend a lot of time virtue signalling and/or criticising those who don't buy in to the notion that their whole lives should revolve around the latest government guidelines, need to realise that for a significant proportion of the population the coronavirus outbreak is simply not high up their list of priorities.


----------



## classic33 (9 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Put it like this, they are not going to travel a considerable distance to get tested at their own expense and in their own time, so the only way they will take a test is either the postal kits or if the tester comes to them. If you have virus symptoms and feel ill, you probably have it or something else that's nasty.
> All those of you who spend a lot of time virtue signalling and/or criticising those who don't buy in to the notion that their whole lives should revolve around the latest government guidelines, need to realise that for a significant proportion of the population the coronavirus outbreak is simply not high up their list of priorities.


Maybe time to hit them in the pockets then.

It's not high up on my list of priorities either. However, they sooner we get this dealt with, the sooner those conditions that are higher up on my list of priorities can be treated. 

The sooner those who say they'll not comply with the law realise all they are doing is dragging the whole thing out, making returning to "normal' for many folk harder. 
Top of my list is to start receiving the medical treatment required for conditions I can do nothing about. But people like me don't seem to figure too high for some. It's a Victorian attitude, that needs leaving back in Victorian times.


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## mjr (9 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> not expecting 50 people to lose two weeks wages just because one or two of them _might_ have the virus - but the authorities can't be bothered to make the effort to find out which ones actually have it and which ones don't.


1. They won't lose income totally and are eligible for sick pay or benefits. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronav...u-cannot-work-because-of-coronavirus-covid-19

2. sadly, the govt is being even less inclined to work out who's got it, with Hancock on BBC News this morning to discourage asymptomatic testing.

3. The Hancock, MP for Newmarket, presented by Tattersall's, avoided criticising the Doncaster racing meeting which is starting today before the PM gives details of the new partial relocking, despite the objections of Doncaster's mayor.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Sep 2020)

Bad news everywhere this morning.

Particularly for those like me who are hoping for an early vaccine:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-hold-due-to-adverse-reaction-in-participant

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_monitoring_committee

Whilst not necessarily bad news for the vaccine (they may not even know if the subject was on active or placebo yet) it's almost certainly bad news for the timeline, unless they've already recruited enough subjects to get the event rate needed soon anyway. 

Fingers crossed.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If you want isolation to work, it has to be targeted at those who have actually been tested and proved to be an infection risk,



This will not work, because of incubation periods, as I explained above.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Sep 2020)

It's OK. Problem solved. We can stop worrying. 

Govt is relaunching it's slogan. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...087b90a299057c#block-5f5863148f087b90a299057c

Phew.


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## Joey Shabadoo (9 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Given how often it's been mentioned, maybe it's time to do what they did during 1918-1920.
> 
> Wonder how people would react if police responded in similar fashion over the non wearing of face masks?
> 
> ...


Were the San Francisco offenders black?


----------



## fossyant (9 Sep 2020)

Local infection rates have rocketed again since schools gone back - looked at the figures last night and we've gone from 7 to over 40 per 100,000 in the space of days - our area is still one of the lowest in Greater Manchester, but this isn't going the right way.


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## Flick of the Elbow (9 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Local infection rates have rocketed again since schools gone back - looked at the figures last night and we've gone from 7 to over 40 per 100,000 in the space of days - our area is still one of the lowest in Greater Manchester, but this isn't going the right way.


Ours in Edinburgh are the same, a few weeks ago we were stable at around 16 infections per week, now we are at 16 per day. And the universities have only just started returning, the potential they have for increasing rates is huge, far worse than schools. We will see their effect in the coming weeks.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Local infection rates have rocketed again since schools gone back



And, worryingly, it's almost certainly too early for the schools to be the cause. 

So further hikes in the rate of increase can reasonably be expected.


----------



## marinyork (9 Sep 2020)

Limit of six in England for the foreseeable future, possibly till Christmas according to Hancock.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> possibly till Christmas



All over by then


----------



## nickyboy (9 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> I agree.
> 
> And find it sad, but eminently predictable, that his thread which started out as a useful and informative source of Covid info and views has, like so many threads here and elsewhere, become predominantly a silo where a small group of folks who agree with each other exchange cynical self affirmatory messages of agreement and take an overtly cynical view of any and everything the government does. C'est la vie. C'est la cycle chat.
> 
> I used to come here for information and ideas, now I pop in occasionally when I'm bored. And am always disappointed.


Sadly you're right. I've stopped posting in this important thread for exactly that reason. Hell, I was even in on Page 1 saying this might be really serious and I tried to provide useful information for everyone. But when it descended into an opportunity to post self affirmative political stuff it became boring so I stopped posting
There are much bigger issues re Covid than whatever the government says today or tomorrow; what happens if we can't develop a vaccine? How is a vaccine distributed? How does the world pay for the national debt it's take on? What happens to our city centres in the long run?

These are the issues exercising my thoughts. Not whether you should be able to meet more than 6 in a pub


----------



## tom73 (9 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Local infection rates have rocketed again since schools gone back - looked at the figures last night and we've gone from 7 to over 40 per 100,000 in the space of days - our area is still one of the lowest in Greater Manchester, but this isn't going the right way.


Same here it's pushing towards 30 from 7 we just missed by a whisker lockdown last time. More down to it was early days of them and a lot of government feet dragging. Official we are at 1 school closed but it's more like 3 with a few other possibles. They won't have had time to feed into things so who know's what numbers will be by then. 
The don't kill your granny thing falls to bits at school time they are the ones who often take and pick kids up. Not to counting childcare at other times.


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## marinyork (9 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> There are much bigger issues re Covid than whatever the government says today or tomorrow; what happens if we can't develop a vaccine? How is a vaccine distributed? How does the world pay for the national debt it's take on? What happens to our city centres in the long run?
> 
> These are the issues exercising my thoughts. Not whether you should be able to meet more than 6 in a pub



If a vaccine can't be developed, then groups of 6 is highly relevant stuff.

You've probably got a year to worry about vaccines and vaccine distribution.

I suspect you aren't interested in the thread for other reasons.


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## Electric_Andy (9 Sep 2020)

It is becoming more worrying, even though we were told there could be a winter spike. There are a great deal of divided opinions on the matter, and the wider matters regarding the economy. My Gran would rather get the virus and die, than not see her grand kids. I heard someone else say they are being forced back into a potentially lethal office environment for no other reason than "the coffee shops are struggling".

I think all we can do is prepare for a repeat of the last 5 months, which many of us have been following anyway, but there seems to be a greater attitute towards "go back to normal but don't go near vulnerable people".


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## Electric_Andy (9 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> The don't kill your granny thing falls to bits at school time


 Exactly what I experienced at school on Monday. People crowding around the school gates for a chat (despite signs telling them not to). One ~50 year old who I assume was a grand parent, brought her puppy along and was letting 4 kids at a time all bend down and hug/pet it. Whilst I'm reminding my son not to touch the railings. Many more mums walking side by side having a natter and a catch-up not wearing masks. Brick wall and head come to mind.


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## marinyork (9 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If you want testing to work, it has to be done very locally, so that means the tester going to the patient or the test location being within walking distance. It's no good giving out appointments at test locations miles away from where somewhere lives. Not everyone has a car, or can afford to use a tank of petrol getting there, or even has the time.
> I know several people who are not going to get tested or isolate under any circumstances apart from if they get the virus and it makes them too unwell to physically be able to go about their normal routines. Some of these people get paid day rate in their jobs. If they don't go to work, they don't earn any money. They aren't going to take a whole day out travelling a hundred miles to a test centre and they aren't going to isolate and lose income unless they have got cast iron proof they are carrying the virus.



It is being done locally. The mobile units are mostly belting around hotspots in the north of England.

what you may want is unlikely to happen unless batch saliva testing comes into widespread use.

The current issues around capacity are very bad, but not indicative of the tests all the time.


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## nickyboy (9 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> If a vaccine can't be developed, then groups of 6 is highly relevant stuff.
> 
> You've probably got a year to worry about vaccines and vaccine distribution.
> 
> I suspect you aren't interested in the thread for other reasons.


In the overall worldwide Covid scheme of things criticising the government's nuancing of its restrictions is trivial. In reality it presents an easy target for those with a political rather than epidemiological agenda. But knock yourself out if that's what you want.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Sep 2020)

Sober and depressing figures from the FT on the acceleration. Worth reading the whole thread. 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1303571998707191808


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## fossyant (9 Sep 2020)

My wife is going to finally get to see her mum at the Nursing home, but isn't hopeful visits will be allowed much longer as the local rate spikes again. As you say @Electric_Andy she'd rather see family than not, and it's currently like prison, but costs over £4k a month. It's sad as MrsF and her sisters have thought about how they could get her home, but her care needs are too high - you'd need to live in and be on call 24/7.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> In the overall worldwide Covid scheme of things criticising the government's nuancing of its restrictions is trivial. In reality it presents an easy target for those with a political rather than epidemiological agenda. But knock yourself out if that's what you want.



The government's response to Covid has been objectively terrible, killing more people here than anywhere else on earth. A thread on Covid ignoring this would be very, very weird.


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## marinyork (9 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> In the overall worldwide Covid scheme of things criticising the government's nuancing of its restrictions is trivial. In reality it presents an easy target for those with a political rather than epidemiological agenda. But knock yourself out if that's what you want.



I agree with the restriction of six.

I am deeply bothered about how a vaccine plays out, but it's an area most aren't interested in.


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## deptfordmarmoset (9 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Any guesses who Hancock will scapegoat now?


Aha, I didn't guess that it was the fault of too many well people. 

'_'The reason we have constraint at the moment is not because capacity has gone down; far from it, capacity has gone up. It’s that we’ve suddenly seen this rise in demand from people who are not eligible. For instance, I’ve read stories of whole schools being told to go and get a test. That is not what the testing is there for. We need it for people who are symptomatic. ''_


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## mjr (9 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> In the overall worldwide Covid scheme of things criticising the government's nuancing of its restrictions is trivial.


No-one even mentioned nuancing until you, I think. The criticism is that government advice disagrees with its legislation, WHO advice and even other bits of its own advice. It's an omnishambles with a death toll. If we can't criticise that, democracy dies


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## classic33 (9 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> In the overall worldwide Covid scheme of things criticising the government's nuancing of its restrictions is trivial. In reality it presents an easy target for those with a political rather than epidemiological agenda. But knock yourself out if that's what you want.


Therein lies the biggest problem with this on this island. Right down to local level, they don't want to be seen working together to even try and sort things out.

After the initial twelve weeks, it became a point scoring game to a load of people.


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## nickyboy (9 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I agree with the restriction of six.
> 
> I am deeply bothered about how a vaccine plays out, but it's an area most aren't interested in. Including you.
> 
> Knock yourself out, if your toxic masculinity isn't around that's cool by me.


I'm confused that you say I'm not bothered about a vaccine. Whether a vaccine is ultimately developed is probably the most important Covid-related issue and pretty well every policy decision going forward will be predicated on this. So, I am bothered, greatly. 

What bothers me about this thread is that something so important as this doesn't even warrant a mention (similarly, what will have to change to allow government debt repayments etc) But we get pages of critique of UK government's detailed covid response. I'm not saying that this is totally trivial. But in the overall scheme of things, it's minor, very minor


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## stowie (9 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> What I said is they won't isolate unless they have the virus. That means either they get a positive test result or they feel unwell with the sort of symptoms associated with the virus.
> If they feel ok, and they haven't had a positive test result, they aren't going to isolate no matter what.



That plan is completely ineffective at containing the spread of COVID because the transmission occurs before any symptoms are present (not to mention the people who spread it but never get ill). So by the time your friends realise they have COVID it is too late.

From my basic understanding, this is one of the key problems in managing the disease (along with its contagiousness). SARS is much more deadly, but only contagious once symptoms are exhibited so the spread can be managed. Thus SARS hasn't become a global pandemic and has managed to be highly controlled even without a vaccine.

So, in conclusion, the government is trying to control the spread of a virus with only social rules being available to them whilst the virus is highly contagious for 2 weeks before symptoms show (if symptoms show at all). In my mind, an imperfect analogy is trying to control a car travelling at speed whilst wearing a VR set which is only giving you some visual information from 10 seconds ago. It isn't going to be easy and prone to continuous over correction. It seems like this would need a highly competent government with a talent for clear messaging. Has anyone thought Chris Grayling should manage this task?


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## johnblack (9 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Sadly you're right. I've stopped posting in this important thread for exactly that reason. Hell, I was even in on Page 1 saying this might be really serious and I tried to provide useful information for everyone. But when it descended into an opportunity to post self affirmative political stuff it became boring so I stopped posting
> There are much bigger issues re Covid than whatever the government says today or tomorrow; what happens if we can't develop a vaccine? How is a vaccine distributed? How does the world pay for the national debt it's take on? What happens to our city centres in the long run?
> 
> These are the issues exercising my thoughts. Not whether you should be able to meet more than 6 in a pub


So true, a pack of back slapping politically motivated people who will not accept any thought that does not comply with their group think and what a comedian said on twitter.


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## oldfatfool (9 Sep 2020)

The government IMHO is a pile of shite and responsible for this country about to become a wasteland of mad max proportions, however were covid is concerned anyone could see what was happening in the rest of Europe, I don't need to be ordered not to jump off a cliff anymore than people should have been needed to be told to start sensible social distancing, and still as soon as spoons opened it was jam packed, no doubt with people lamenting to one another how late/ poor the government response was. I might not think covid is the armaggeden people think but I still acted how I thought was sensible, in the same way I would avoid some bugger coughing/ sneezing at any other time.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> What bothers me about this thread is that something so important as this doesn't even warrant a mention



No, it's never mentioned at all. Certainly not the first thing posted in the morning.

https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/page-857#post-6126839


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## Electric_Andy (9 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> trying to control a car travelling at speed whilst wearing a VR set which is only giving you some visual information from 10 seconds ago.


 The only option is to not let the car move. But that affects productivity, mental health, and carries a huge bill for the country. This is why I'm not overly critical of the government; it might be a shambles but we haven't got many other options. And even if more effective measures were in place, it's ultimately down to Joe Public to see them through, which many haven't been doing.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Sep 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> it's ultimately down to Joe Public to see them through, which many haven't been doing.



No. It is up to the govt to clearly and effectively communicate this so the public does see it through. The govt has been beyond hopeless on this, Cummings most notably, but far beyond that. See "all over by Christmas", "Super Saturday", "get back to the office shirkers", etc etc etc etc etc etc


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## Andy_R (9 Sep 2020)

My take on it, is that the Govt has been reactive all the way through instead of being proactive,and have stumbled from pillar to post like a drunk on the way home on a Saturday night. Just my opinion though.


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## mjr (9 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> [Handcock said:] That is not what the testing is there for. We need it for people who are symptomatic. ''[/I]


I wonder if he hasn't been told that asymptomatic people can spread this, or if he's forgotten!


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## deptfordmarmoset (9 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> I wonder if he hasn't been told that asymptomatic people can spread this, or if he's forgotten!


Hands. Face. Space?
Hancock. Space. Waste.


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## roadrash (9 Sep 2020)

As long as people like the ones skipdiverjohn mentioned continue to please themselves (after all they are more important than anyone else) then social distancing is never going to work, as i mentioned above , guidance such as ... groups of six allowed in place A, but groups of more than six are allowed in place B , is absolute bolox, if more than six people isnt safe (and im not convinced it is) then it isnt safe ANYWHERE, ....oh yes you can meet your gran and four others in the pub, but dont you fekin dare meet gran in her own house....fekin madness.


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## raleighnut (9 Sep 2020)

roadrash said:


> As long as people like the ones skipdiverjohn mentioned continue to please themselves (after all they are more important than anyone else) then social distancing is never going to work, as i mentioned above , guidance such as ... groups of six allowed in place A, but groups of more than six are allowed in place B , is absolute bolox, if more than six people isnt safe (and im not convinced it is) then it isnt safe ANYWHERE, ....oh yes you can meet your gran and four others in the pub, but dont you fekin dare meet gran in her own house....fekin madness.


Yep but he's by no means alone, I see em all the time crowding past me in shops and as for the pub over the road.


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## icowden (9 Sep 2020)

roadrash said:


> guidance such as ... groups of six allowed in place A, but groups of more than six are allowed in place B , is absolute ***



It's more than that. The more rules you introduce along the lines of x can do this, y can do that, z can do the other unless included in x, the less likely you are to get anyone adhering to them. Rules need to be kept simple.

Secondly, why announce that Rule X on the 8th of September is going to come into force on the 14th September. That makes no sense. Surely if we need to change the rules, we need to do it now, not in a weeks time.

Oh - but the guidance isn't ready. So rule X hasn't actually been planned or thought through. We need a week to work out whether rule X is actually going to work, how it should be applied and whether it can be policed.

It's just nonsense.

Happily a significant amount of the population will fall back to common sense. Unhappily a significant amount of the population don't seem to have much common sense to fall back on. And while messages like "you can go to the pub" are in force, then easy false correlations will follow. If I can meet my mates in the pub for a drink, then we can have a picnic in the park for nana's birthday... etc

But - what about the £100 fine? Well what about it. Yes officer, it does look like a birthday party but honestly - it's a team building exercise for work...


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## mjr (9 Sep 2020)

roadrash said:


> As long as people like the ones skipdiverjohn mentioned continue to please themselves (after all they are more important than anyone else) then social distancing is never going to work, as i mentioned above


That depends what you mean by "work". This is a big numbers game and as long as the altruistic followers of the WHO advice hugely outnumber the selfish and the clueless followers of Dominic, then it works, in that case numbers fall despite them. Hooray! :-)

The big difficulty is, with something so stealthily spreadable and relatively lethal, is that it only needs a fairly small minority of selfish and followers for them to drag the rest of us into the plague pit with them. :-(



icowden said:


> Secondly, why announce that Rule X on the 8th of September is going to come into force on the 14th September. That makes no sense. Surely if we need to change the rules, we need to do it now, not in a weeks time.


Because it's another week where few will be discussing Brexit and their latest illegal idea?


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## roadrash (9 Sep 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Yep but he's by no means alone, I see em all the time crowding past me in shops and as for the pub over the road.


I agree totally as I stated earlier I too see it all the time


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## roadrash (9 Sep 2020)

icowden said:


> It's more than that. The more rules you introduce along the lines of x can do this, y can do that, z can do the other unless included in x, the less likely you are to get anyone adhering to them. Rules need to be kept simple.
> 
> Secondly, why announce that Rule X on the 8th of September is going to come into force on the 14th September. That makes no sense. Surely if we need to change the rules, we need to do it now, not in a weeks time.
> 
> ...




Again I agree keep the rules simple and to the point and don't wait to bring them in next week . Implement them with immediate effect


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## roadrash (9 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> This is a big numbers game and as long as the altruistic followers of the WHO advice hugely outnumber the selfish and the clueless followers of Dominic, then it works, in that case numbers fall despite them. Hooray! :-)


Around here I am seeing more people ignore any guidelines than people following them


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## classic33 (9 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> That depends what you mean by "work".
> This is a big numbers game and as long as the altruistic followers of the WHO advice hugely outnumber the selfish and the clueless followers of Dominic, then it works, in that case numbers fall despite them. Hooray! :-)
> 
> The big difficulty is, with something so stealthily spreadable and relatively lethal, is that it only needs a fairly small minority of selfish and followers for them to drag the rest of us into the plague pit with them. :-(
> ...


Please explain how you link the current pandemic and brexit.

The latter came about as a democratic vote, the first Mother Nature threw at us we'd no say in it.


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## tom73 (9 Sep 2020)

Bigger issues than the governments handling of this boy we sure have. I don't care which clowns are running the show and I don't think others would have done better. What I can't stick is they've given up even trying , a wife who like many is now well past running on empty will she and the rest keep going? Yes it's what they do but at what cost ? We happily walked into this mess and we are going all over again. I'd happily have confidence in the current government and be happy bunny. But it's hard to do when even the countries most senior HCP's and scientists are openly critical of them. 

We can't even begin to deal the real post covid issues if the health of the nation is decimated. Government long list of balls up's are only part of why it's been a mess. Imbedded,  historic and endemic inequalities have all played into the hands of covid. I spend much of time dealing with them. So sorry if I'm seen to join the "it's easy to bash government bandwagon" but i'm tried of fire fighting. If at a time of the biggest public health emergency to date we as nation which any government is part of. Can't even keep the most vulnerable part's of society safe. We've no hope of ever doing it have we ? 

So until a vaccine is found and even then until it's been handed out to enough people. It's not going to go back to normal anytime soon in turn until we get a real handle on managing this. Which only the government can do other governments have and all have a few things in common. Effective testing, tracing and clear public health message not only on the what to do but methods of transmission so everyone can make a simple judgment on what's safe for them. We don't have any of that what's happened has gone and can't be put back. But we can learn and get better that looking way off. The economy will not begin to recover for some time even if we changed tack now and more interventions will be needed. We may as well start to rebalance it now much of it is shot anyway.The question is what and how ? Once you start digging things are complex economy and health are linked make a balls up of one the other will quickly bite your balls off.


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## tom73 (9 Sep 2020)

Doncaster racers after today is off, closed doors only look's like local PH have pulled the plug.


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## Tanis8472 (9 Sep 2020)

roadrash said:


> Again I agree keep the rules simple and to the point and don't wait to bring them in next week . Implement them with immediate effect


That would mean they would have had to have already thought it through, you know, like most rational people do.


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## mjr (9 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Please explain how you link the current pandemic and brexit.


They're both happening now, in case you hadn't noticed. They "compete" for news coverage.



> The latter came about as a democratic vote, the first Mother Nature threw at us we'd no say in it.


Not democratic, but there's another thread for that.


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## classic33 (9 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> They're both happening now, in case you hadn't noticed. They "compete" for news coverage.
> 
> 
> Not democratic, *but there's another thread for that.*


Best keep any mention of it in the right thread then!


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## oldfatfool (9 Sep 2020)

I haven't t worked out yet why if ferry x left port at 00.00 and stuck to it normal efficient cruising speed docking in the UK at 1.30am everyone would have to be in quarentine but if same ferry left at 00.00 burned excesses amount of diesel to be docked at 00.59am everyone on board would be A OK. Can only presume they handed out highviz vests to counteract the danger.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Sep 2020)

Johnson now bullshitting about "moonshots" whilst not being able to deliver basic testing provision 6 months into the pandemic.

Encapsulates the triumph of rhetoric over delivery.


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## Beebo (9 Sep 2020)

I think we can all cancel the big family Christmas and New Year celebrations.


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## Beebo (9 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Johnson now bullshitting about "moonshots" whilst not being able to deliver basic testing provision 6 months into the pandemic.
> 
> Encapsulates the triumph of rhetoric over delivery.


The world beating track and trace app hasn’t arrived yet either.


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## tom73 (9 Sep 2020)

Witty and Valance looked to have come out fighting and let gip even if it mean't blowing out the water what Boris had just said.


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## raleighnut (9 Sep 2020)

Beebo said:


> I think we can all cancel the big family Christmas and New Year celebrations.


I sincerely hope so


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## Beebo (9 Sep 2020)

I do think the rule of 6 is far easier to understand for the general population. 
It’s a simple concept, whether anyone will abide by it is unknown.


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## Julia9054 (9 Sep 2020)

Beebo said:


> I think we can all cancel the big family Christmas and New Year celebrations.


Phew (oops - I typed that out loud!)


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## tom73 (9 Sep 2020)

Has any country tried using a negative test "passport" idea? If so what they been using for the testing?
Many of current rapid testing options we got told to expect as the next big thing came to nothing. So which one's are still in the mix that look to have any chance of being useful?


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## tom73 (9 Sep 2020)

Making recording contact details a legal requirement for businesses Is a positive step. It's a bit unfair not making it a legal requirement for the public though.


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## SkipdiverJohn (9 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> It seems like this would need a highly competent government with a talent for clear messaging. Has anyone thought Chris Grayling should manage this task?



Failing Grayling must be one of the most incompetent politicians out there, right across the political spectrum. I would put him in the same league as the mathematical prowess of Diane Abbott.


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## mjr (9 Sep 2020)

Beebo said:


> I do think the rule of 6 is far easier to understand for the general population.
> It’s a simple concept, whether anyone will abide by it is unknown.


Well, it would be a simple concept, were it not for all the situations where it doesn't apply: the Prime Minister mentioned "places of worship, gyms, restaurants and hospitality venues [...] education and work settings [...] weddings and funerals [...] and organised sport" and I assume shops will also keep their current limits (up to 90 in one local shop, I saw!) or will we be going back to 2m distancing with queuing outside the shop?

I think it's fair to say that Johnson seems incapable of clear and simple concepts.

Curiously, he mentioned "We will also restrict the opening hours of premises" but nothing about limiting the lengths of visits, which is something some countries have tried and I think found mostly popular even if not clearly effective because it means more people getting the chance to book a table and fewer people spending all evening drinking themselves silly.

And remember folks: Hancock Wastes Space.


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## mjr (9 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Failing Grayling must be one of the most incompetent politicians out there, right across the political spectrum. I would put him in the same league as the mathematical prowess of Diane Abbott.


Oh don't underestimate Johnson's cabinet! Even Diane Abbot was better with numbers than Priti "300,000,34,974,000" Patel:

View: https://twitter.com/PoliReview/status/1249042857375260672


It's just as well Minister Patel has nothing to do with anything to do with Coronavirus, such as counting people across the borders and into quarantine(!)


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## deptfordmarmoset (9 Sep 2020)

This talk of moonshot reminded me that someone sent me a link to this video this morning....


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## tom73 (9 Sep 2020)

A paper on health and economic effects of different social distancing interventions.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920304859 
Counties that take an economic 1st approach still end up worse off. 
_"The evidence provided by the simulation model shows that there is a false dichotomy between healthcare and the economy. In the scenarios where it was tried to save the economy by not taking hard social isolation policies, consequently, the social costs ended up impacting negatively into the economy"_
Also showed social distancing and mask wearing together is effective. Both on epidemiological and economical level.


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## Beebo (9 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> This talk of moonshot reminded me that someone sent me a link to this video this morning....



Johnson’s talking Bullshot about Moonshot. 
It’s his typical modus operandi, Chuck something weird into the speech to distract everyone from the real issue.


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## Rusty Nails (9 Sep 2020)

Beebo said:


> I think we can all cancel the big family Christmas and New Year celebrations.



FTFY


----------



## IaninSheffield (9 Sep 2020)

On FullFact today:
"In parliament yesterday the health secretary and the shadow health secretary clashed over the performance of NHS Test and Trace in England. 
Jonathan Ashworth MP claimed that only 69.4% of identified contacts are now reached and asked to self-isolate, which Matt Hancock disagreed with. 
Mr Ashworth was right. The data (which was published on Thursday 3 September, that day Mr Hancock referred to) shows that 69.4% of identified contacts of people who had tested positive for Covid-19 were reached by the service between 20 August and 26 August."

For newspapers “A significant inaccuracy, misleading statement or distortion must be corrected, promptly and with due prominence and – where appropriate – an apology published.” ... sometimes!
Shouldn't our elected members be held to a higher level of accountability?


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## Johnno260 (9 Sep 2020)

People won’t abide by the rule of 6 if they can’t abide by the rules already in place.

Every time I hear we need to trust in common sense it makes me laugh now.


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## Rusty Nails (9 Sep 2020)

I trust all those people who were quick to condemn the older generations for endangering the country by voting for Brexit are equally condemnatory of the younger generations for endangering the country by flouting social distancing just to have a good time.

People can be stupid, whether old or young. No age group can ever take the high ground.


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## Adam4868 (9 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I trust all those people who were quick to condemn the older generations for endangering the country by voting for Brexit are equally condemnatory of the younger generations for endangering the country by flouting social distancing just to have a good time.
> 
> People can be stupid, whether old or young. No age group can ever take the high ground.


Don't panic about your nest egg,the younger generation will be paying for covid one way or another for a long time...


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## Rusty Nails (9 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Don't panic about your nest egg,the younger generation will be paying for covid one way or another for a long time...



My nest egg has hatched and flown away.


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## qigong chimp (9 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> People can be stupid, whether old or young.


Perhaps to help us better understand your penetrative thesis you could share with us your age?


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## Rusty Nails (9 Sep 2020)

qigong chimp said:


> Perhaps to help us better understand your penetrative thesis you could share with us your age?



Do you disagree that people can be stupid, whether old or young?

I'm older than I was when I was much younger. Don't ask me to share my age, get your own.

It wasn't a thesis, more a bit of tabloid journalism.


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## mjr (10 Sep 2020)

Bravo to the Independent for this headline/subhead combination burn:


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## Tanis8472 (10 Sep 2020)

Well that's ok then....

self-gratification artist


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (10 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I trust all those people who were quick to condemn the older generations for endangering the country by voting for Brexit are equally condemnatory of the younger generations for endangering the country by flouting social distancing just to have a good time.



No condemnation from me. Only applause for the Brexit voters and for the younger generation out enjoying themselves. Both positive events, IMHO. 👍


----------



## Rusty Nails (10 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> No condemnation from me. Only applause for the Brexit voters and for the younger generation out enjoying themselves. Both positive events, IMHO. 👍



I expected nothing less.

My penultimate sentence stands.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (10 Sep 2020)

Anybody downloaded the App yet?


----------



## Johnno260 (10 Sep 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Anybody downloaded the App yet?



According to my Aunt the vaccine that's being developed will have tracking chips so just wait for that.......I wish I was joking.


----------



## marinyork (10 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Has any country tried using a negative test "passport" idea? If so what they been using for the testing?
> Many of current rapid testing options we got told to expect as the next big thing came to nothing. So which one's are still in the mix that look to have any chance of being useful?



Batch saliva tests are being worked on. The actual test itself I don't think there's that much quibble with, it's how large a group do you use and which group and is it as practical in the real world as it sounds. There could be large downsides if it's misused. Not in this country but elsewhere sewage analysis seems to be taken seriously.

The normal saliva tests are going on in southamptom and Manchester, but rumour yesterday was validation problems. There weren't enough people in southampton getting the virus to demonstrate it's 99.8% accurate and 99.8% specific and in a realistic range of people. And no data has been published.

The graph I saw said 800,000 tests by the end of November and increase into the millions in december and early 2021.


----------



## PK99 (10 Sep 2020)

At last the media are beginning to do their job properly and explain, educate and illuminate rather than knee jerk to headline numbers and forever ask "gotcha" questions:

This from the BBC, trying to get to the meaning behind the headline numbers and examining how the ramping up of testing numbers make case number comparisons over time almost meaningless.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064347

and this simple plot from the Mail website plotting cases and testing results


----------



## tom73 (10 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Batch saliva tests are being worked on. The actual test itself I don't think there's that much quibble with, it's how large a group do you use and which group and is it as practical in the real world as it sounds. There could be large downsides if it's misused. Not in this country but elsewhere sewage analysis seems to be taken seriously.
> 
> The normal saliva tests are going on in southamptom and Manchester, but rumour yesterday was validation problems. There weren't enough people in southampton getting the virus to demonstrate it's 99.8% accurate and 99.8% specific and in a realistic range of people. And no data has been published.
> 
> The graph I saw said 800,000 tests by the end of November and increase into the millions in december and early 2021.



That's about what I thought we'd got up to it's going to be hard to see how the levels of testing being talked about yesterday. Are going to come from and be turned around to be of any use. It's a pity sewage analysis is not being taken more seriously it's shown to be a handy tool for area virus mapping. like you say it's no point having all the different testing option if they all we end up going is using them just to hit a target. 

If we do get to the point simple and quick mass testing it makes more sense to test the ones who have to be in close contact with the most risk groups. Over giving someone the all clear to go the football or the evening opera. The other big problem is no point having all this extra data if we don't get a bit more smarter at using it. I also don't see how the current contact tracing set up can deal with all the extra work for all the extra tests. After all It's not even good enough now. 

If reports are true and this latest Boris idea costs 100 bn it's gong be one big mess with a bill to match.


----------



## DaveReading (10 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's a pity sewage analysis is not being taken more seriously it's shown to be a handy tool for area virus mapping.



If you can detect the presence of the virus in sh1t, why are we not all being sent DIY sampling kits (like those used for bowel cancer detection), so that we could return those direct to the lab and cut out the middle-man ?

Serious question.


----------



## midlife (10 Sep 2020)

Saliva from the back of the mouth is easier to harvest than fecal samples.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (10 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Saliva from the back of the mouth is easier to harvest than fecal samples.



Stick your arse out the car window whilst we insert the swab.


----------



## tom73 (10 Sep 2020)

DaveReading said:


> If you can detect the presence of the virus in sh1t, why are we not all being sent DIY sampling kits (like those used for bowel cancer detection), so that we could return those direct to the lab and cut out the middle-man ?
> 
> Serious question.



It's not all that practical on an individual , to be of any use in outbreak control which needs in be turned round in 2 days maximum.


----------



## oldwheels (10 Sep 2020)

So the BBC is to stop broadcasting Nicola Sturgeon's briefing on the covid 19 crisis just when cases are starting to rise again. She apparently is being perfectly beastly and showing up dear Boris in a bad light when he can be found. 
Rent a gob Lord Fooks among others thinks all our information should either be suppressed or filtered through London because we cannot be found to be better informed than England.
Unless of course this is fake news but does not seem likely.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (10 Sep 2020)

oldwheels said:


> So the BBC is to stop broadcasting Nicola Sturgeon's briefing on the covid 19 crisis just when cases are starting to rise again. She apparently is being perfectly beastly and showing up dear Boris in a bad light when he can be found.
> Rent a gob Lord Fooks among others thinks all our information should either be suppressed or filtered through London because we cannot be found to be better informed than England.
> Unless of course this is fake news but does not seem likely.



I read it as they are not going to be broadcasting every CV briefing by NS _by default_. Future broadcasts will be based on editorial merit. _All_ briefings will still be available in streamed format.


----------



## oldwheels (10 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I read it as they are not going to be broadcasting every CV briefing by NS _by default_. Future broadcasts will be based on editorial merit. _All_ briefings will still be available in streamed format.


What does editorial merit mean and who decides? I must confess I never watch them on TV anyway but catch up with them mostly on Twitter. It is the thin end of the wedge I think.


----------



## marinyork (10 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Saliva from the back of the mouth is easier to harvest than fecal samples.



Batch sewage is how the virus was detected at a university dorm asymptomatic outbreak in the US recently and contained. 

It's how it was confirmed the virus was in Turin and Milan in December. The same method was being studied here for viability.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Batch sewage is how the virus was detected at a university dorm asymptomatic outbreak in the US recently and contained.
> 
> It's how it was confirmed the virus was in Turin and Milan in December. The same method was being studied here for viability.


There's a job for Hancock!


----------



## Wobblers (10 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm confused that you say I'm not bothered about a vaccine. Whether a vaccine is ultimately developed is probably the most important Covid-related issue and pretty well every policy decision going forward will be predicated on this. So, I am bothered, greatly.
> 
> What bothers me about this thread is that something so important as this doesn't even warrant a mention (similarly, what will have to change to allow government debt repayments etc) But we get pages of critique of UK government's detailed covid response. I'm not saying that this is totally trivial. But in the overall scheme of things, it's minor, very minor



If you want this thread to be less political why not post on those topics? Surely that's a good deal more constructive than complaining about what other people are saying, which seems rather unlikely to help.

The news from the trial of the Oxford vaccine does not sound good. However, this is a trial involving some 30,000 people. With such a large number, it's inevitable that someone will get ill, for reasons that have nothing to do with the vaccine. This case of transverse mylelitis may or may not be due to the vaccine. We don't know yet - but that's why we run trials. It's too early to tell whether or not this is bad news (though that message appears to be rather slow in getting to the media).

The staggering amount of government debt - well, that's what I'd describe as "buttock-clenchingly terrifying". Obviously it's going to take years - decades - to pay that off. And it's equally obvious that taxes will have to rise and services cut to pay for it. But which taxes and what services?

(last sentence edited to make sense)


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Sep 2020)

Positive news on Covid! It's eliminated flu in the southern hemisphere. 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1304076454259380225


Right, now I need to find a positive from Brexit too. I like a challenge! Back in 2024 ish...


----------



## classic33 (10 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Positive news on Covid! It's eliminated flu in the southern hemisphere.
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1304076454259380225
> ...



Not the year 2535?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (10 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Not the year 2535?


...man is still alive. Woman has survived but arguments about the lockdown of 2020 continue.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Positive news on Covid! It's eliminated flu in the southern hemisphere.
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1304076454259380225
> ...



I had been wondering whether social distancing and face protection would have an effect on flu but decided that schools would be a perfect sandpit for that virus and we have to bring the children home at the end of the day, thus negating much of the flu prevention potential. A propos, I don't think that last year was a heavy flu year anyway, so there may be extra excess deaths to add to the CV-19 toll.

Positives from Brexit. Er, the pound will become a junk currency so the government debt will become much less important (to them that's got their hands on foreign currencies, that is.)


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Not the year 2535?



Cummings will still be overseeing things then...


----------



## nickyboy (10 Sep 2020)

McWobble said:


> If you want this thread to be less political why not post on those topics? Surely that's a good deal more constructive than complaining about what other people are saying, which seems rather unlikely to help.
> 
> The news from the trial of the Oxford vaccine does not sound good. However, this is a trial involving some 30,000 people. With such a large number, it's inevitable that someone will get ill, for reasons that have nothing to do with the vaccine. This case of transverse mylelitis may or may not be due to the vaccine. We don't know yet - but that's why we run trials. It's too early to tell whether or not this is bad news (though that message appears to be rather slow in getting to the media).
> 
> The staggering amount of government debt - well, that's what I'd describe as "buttock-clenchingly terrifying". Obviously it's going to take years - decades - to pay that off. And it's equally obvious that taxes will have to rise and services cut to pay for it. But which taxes and with services?


Cos I posted for the first few hundred pages as I felt there was merit in trying to offer information and opinion on a rapidly developing situation. I backed out when this became swamped by those pushing the agenda into a more political direction 
FWIW, the issue of the staggering amount of debt and what taxes will have to increase and what services will have to be cut to pay for it is central to the issue of lockdown policy. It's all too easy to push for harder and harder lockdown because the economic impact of this isn't being paid now. It'll be paid long into the future. Maybe if the linkage between "lockdown policy X" and "reduced service in the future Y" we might not be so keen on stricter lockdowns
Fundamental to the whole shebang is whether an effective vaccine can ever be developed. If it can, that's great. But if it can't then the ramifications are huge. If there is a spectrum of vaccine efficacy from useless to perfect I wonder where we will end up? Empirical analysis of past vaccine development isn't very helpful as this vaccine development is resourced several orders of magnitude higher than any previous development


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> FWIW, the issue of the staggering amount of debt and what taxes will have to increase and what services will have to be cut to pay for it is central to the issue of lockdown policy



But that's a political issue. Which you say you don't want on this thread. Very confusing.


----------



## nickyboy (10 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> But that's a political issue. Which you say you don't want on this thread. Very confusing.



Thread Content
Big political issues : Good
Petty Political Sniping: Bad

Of course, what I consider to be petty political sniping others may consider to be big political issues on the coronavirus issue


----------



## Wobblers (10 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Cos I posted for the first few hundred pages as I felt there was merit in trying to offer information and opinion on a rapidly developing situation. I backed out when this became swamped by those pushing the agenda into a more political direction
> FWIW, the issue of the staggering amount of debt and what taxes will have to increase and what services will have to be cut to pay for it is central to the issue of lockdown policy. It's all too easy to push for harder and harder lockdown because the economic impact of this isn't being paid now. It'll be paid long into the future. Maybe if the linkage between "lockdown policy X" and "reduced service in the future Y" we might not be so keen on stricter lockdowns
> Fundamental to the whole shebang is whether an effective vaccine can ever be developed. If it can, that's great. But if it can't then the ramifications are huge. If there is a spectrum of vaccine efficacy from useless to perfect I wonder where we will end up? Empirical analysis of past vaccine development isn't very helpful as this vaccine development is resourced several orders of magnitude higher than any previous development



It's not as simple as no lockdown = no debt.

As @srw pointed out (many, many pages ago!) people were already avoiding public transport, pubs, restaurants and going out back in March even before the lockdown. This unofficial and voluntary lockdown very obviously would have had an economic impact.

Furthermore, allowing the epidemic to run its course without any measure to mitigate it are also with economic consequences, far beyond those concerned with the deaths of approximately 1% of the population. Firstly, it was estimated that up to 20% (IIRC) of the work force would be off sick at the same time, with clear and expensive disruptions to just about every economic activity in the country. There is another, probably more important aspect: CV19 results in significant long lasting and possibly permanent illness in a significant fraction of those who get it. My suspicion is that the long term health impact will not be those who tragically die, but those who are struck down with permanent disabilities requiring expensive ongoing treatment. The costs of supporting hundreds of thousands of such people - who will never work again - will be very large indeed. Perhaps we could frame that as "the number of services we need to reduce in order to avoid lockdown".

Lastly, there is the ethical component - there is another dimension than mere economic utilitarianism. Allowing the avoidable deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, and the permanent disability of hundreds of thousands more is not an ethical course of action. Anyone advocating such a course would be roundly condemned - and rightly so.


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## mjr (11 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Maybe if the linkage between "lockdown policy X" and "reduced service in the future Y" we might not be so keen on stricter lockdowns


1. I think some vital verb clause was cut from the above.

2. It's not easy to predict what the link to future service levels is. If we don't lock down when it's necessary, there will be bigger economic damage than locking down. The difficult problem is deciding which lockdowns are necessary and it looks almost vlike Dominic is flipping coins to decide at the moment!


----------



## mjr (11 Sep 2020)

Breaking news: Whitehall mandarin admits typo'd email to Boris telling him to "impose strict limits on six while recovering from covid" is responsible for disruptive policy change!


----------



## tom73 (11 Sep 2020)

The App is back and this time it's going live from the 24th.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54118022
I think this boat has sailed with confidence all but gone in the test and trace.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Sep 2020)

Economy continues to grow in July (not back to pre-Covid levels yet) - a step in the right direction:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54113948


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Economy continues to grow in July (not back to pre-Covid levels yet) - a step in the right direction:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54113948



Fits with my experience. I'm back to pre-Covid levels.


----------



## marinyork (11 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> The App is back and this time it's going live from the 24th.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54118022
> I think this boat has sailed with confidence all but gone in the test and trace.



Just sounds like it's going to be the hodge podge of systems being slowly replaced with a 2-D barcode for the app. Still with bits of paper and other random systems as well.

That is actually a slight improvement in my eyes. Albeit that you may have effectively with the app two separate systems competing - the bluetooth bit and the cruder tell all 100 people in a pub to isolate one. Which one wins out?


----------



## tom73 (11 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Just sounds like it's going to be the hodge podge of systems being slowly replaced with a 2-D barcode for the app. Still with bits of paper and other random systems as well.
> 
> That is actually a slight improvement in my eyes. Albeit that you may have effectively with the app two separate systems competing - the bluetooth bit and the cruder tell all 100 people in a pub to isolate one. Which one wins out?


Yep If all it end's up being is a glorified "get out of jail card" for the now legal requirement to take customer details. It's a missed opportunity to get smarter with data just at a time we need it.


----------



## marinyork (11 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yep If all it end's up being is a glorified "get out of jail card" for the now legal requirement to take customer details. It's a missed opportunity to get smarter with data just at a time we need it.



On the other hand, in a sense as it's a legal requirement, people might as well use that than whoever else has bodged a system. Depends who you trust most!


----------



## tom73 (11 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> On the other hand, in a sense as it's a legal requirement, people might as well use that than whoever else has bodged a system. Depends who you trust most!


True it may make a few placers not taking things serious sit up and notice once customers on mass start to be told stay at home. Using the app. They can't use it as an easy option then not run crying when it bites them back.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (11 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Cummings will still be overseeing things then...
> View attachment 546460



Where is it the world leaders go for their economic summits?


----------



## marinyork (11 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Where is it the world leaders go for their economic summits?



The wastelands of skaro. The lucky ones get to stay in the Khaled bunker.


----------



## marinyork (12 Sep 2020)

SAGE say only 20% of people isolate fully for 14 days. Lots of commentary about effectiveness of what has now been labelled moonshot.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...eople-in-england-self-isolate-fully-sage-says


----------



## tom73 (12 Sep 2020)

That's on top of reported 20-25% people giving out contact detail due to lack of trust in the system.
In the mean time outbreaks among care home staff are starting.


----------



## MarkF (13 Sep 2020)

Stephenite said:


> @MarkF Would you mind sharing where you get your information from?



Professors, doctors, oncologists, nobel prize winners......those with their views soon censored. I am really very middle of the road. Not anti-vaxxer, nor a conspiracy theorist, just anti-hysteria, anti-lockdown & anti mask as I believe the unintended consequences of these actions to be far worse than the virus.....I've not changed from my first post.


----------



## Stephenite (13 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> Professors, doctors, oncologists, nobel prize winners......those with their views soon censored. I am really very middle of the road. Not anti-vaxxer, nor a conspiracy theorist, just anti-hysteria, anti-lockdown & anti mask as I believe the unintended consequences of these actions to be far worse than the virus.....I've not changed from my first post.


Thanks for answering the question.


----------



## Edwardoka (14 Sep 2020)

Out on the bike today because of cabin fever (I've not been out on the bike for a month) unfortunately due to some road closures my route took me through the city centre.

The number of people I saw with masks covering their mouth but not their nose was definitely more than the number of people I saw wearing them properly - quite a few wearing them as chin ornaments too.

Glasgow is meant to be in lockdown, zero sign of that today.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (14 Sep 2020)




----------



## Ming the Merciless (14 Sep 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Out on the bike today because of cabin fever (I've not been out on the bike for a month) unfortunately due to some road closures my route took me through the city centre.
> 
> The number of people I saw with masks covering their mouth but not their nose was definitely more than the number of people I saw wearing them properly - quite a few wearing them as chin ornaments too.
> 
> Glasgow is meant to be in lockdown, zero sign of that today.



You were cycling indoors?


----------



## Edwardoka (15 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> You were cycling indoors?


No. The terms of the Glasgow lockdown involve not mingling with other households or going into other people's homes, not ceasing all outdoors activity. I stayed on-road the entire time except when I stopped at one point to have a break. When someone started approaching where I was sat I got up and moved away.

I was well clear of everyone. I wish the same could be said for other people. Pavements and buses packed with nose-peekers. It's going to go exponential again soon, I fear.


----------



## Tanis8472 (15 Sep 2020)

2 more here today up from yesterday. 

I get the feeling I'm going to loose my holiday this tome. It was moved from April.
And yes it's a uk holiday, cos apparently that what I should do now according to some folk.


----------



## stowie (15 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> Professors, doctors, oncologists, nobel prize winners......those with their views soon censored. I am really very middle of the road. Not anti-vaxxer, nor a conspiracy theorist, just anti-hysteria, anti-lockdown & anti mask as I believe the unintended consequences of these actions to be far worse than the virus.....I've not changed from my first post.



What is the unintended consequence of wearing a mask or face covering that is far worse than the virus?


----------



## Eziemnaik (15 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> What is the unintended consequence of wearing a mask or face covering that is far worse than the virus?


False sense of security
Same principle as with plastic gloves
Which BTW are not recommended for example in many food preparation businesses exactly for this reason


----------



## PeteXXX (15 Sep 2020)

Maybe we have more testing stations than other areas, but these are my nearest places..


----------



## Ming the Merciless (15 Sep 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> No. The terms of the Glasgow lockdown involve not mingling with other households or going into other people's homes, not ceasing all outdoors activity. I stayed on-road the entire time except when I stopped at one point to have a break. When someone started approaching where I was sat I got up and moved away.
> 
> I was well clear of everyone. I wish the same could be said for other people. Pavements and buses packed with nose-peekers. It's going to go exponential again soon, I fear.



My question was related to your comments about masks. I didn’t realise people had to wear masks outdoors where you are.


----------



## Edwardoka (15 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> My question was related to your comments about masks. I didn’t realise people had to wear masks outdoors where you are.


They don't, but if you're going to wear one you should wear it correctly. The chin ornament comment was tongue-in-cheek, I'd guess it's for people who are going inside and outside and can't be bothered taking it on and off.

As I say, there were plenty of nose-peepers on buses and at bus stops, which is where it will really have the biggest impact.


----------



## MarkF (15 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> What is the unintended consequence of wearing a mask or face covering that is far worse than the virus?



I used a plural of actions, no point in singling out masks. The hysteria caused a crazed NHS bed clearance, which directly caused the deaths in care homes, I alluded to this as it was happening and "last days " patients were quickly gone too. I would like to see data for patients under 70 who arrived into hospital from "normal" life and died from Covid-19, I think it would be astonishingly low. The lockdown has done nothing to move us forward (Sweden) but has huge human and economic consequences and masks (no scientific proven benefit) are now used as a placebo/visible tool to endorse the governments crazy doubling down of a horrible mistake ( I don't buy the conspiracy theories).

It's only going one way, I think most know that now and this threads vitality also points that way. It would have been good for a proper debate to have been had, but "idiot", "plonker" & "braindead" unsurprisingly didn't do much to give confidence to the very small handful of doubters (not deniers) to express their views. Although..........I fully understand how people reacted given the mainstream news bias and political revenge opportunity, but the longer this farce goes on, the more people we will kill, who wants to be complicit in that?

I took comfort in reading some views all the way through this but particularly liked the non hysterical input from these 3.

Professor Karol Sikora - Oncology specialist.
Dr Ron Daniels BEM Intensive care doctor.
Michael Levitt - Biophysist/Professor.


----------



## steve292 (15 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> Professor Karol Sikora - Oncology specialist.


I don't know much about the others but he is a nasty piece of work and quite possibly a fraud


----------



## mjr (15 Sep 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> Maybe we have more testing stations than other areas, but these are my nearest places..
> 
> View attachment 547271


We've two in our nearest town and one in each of the next three nearest.

They've been idle every time I've been past but loads of people are posting online that they can't get an appointment. Something seems very wrong.


----------



## Julia9054 (15 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> We've two in our nearest town and one in each of the next three nearest.
> 
> They've been idle every time I've been past but loads of people are posting online that they can't get an appointment. Something seems very wrong.


I've read that it is down to lack of processing capacity rather than lack of testing capacity


----------



## Tanis8472 (15 Sep 2020)

Can't get test here. I'm classed as essential worker


----------



## mjr (15 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I've read that it is down to lack of processing capacity rather than lack of testing capacity


And if you believe that's the only problem, I've a tower I'd like to sell to you!


----------



## fossyant (15 Sep 2020)

steve292 said:


> I don't know much about the others but he is a nasty piece of work and quite possibly a fraud



Bloody hell -


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Sep 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> Can't get test here. I'm classed as essential worker


As I'm taking part in an ONS infection survey, I can get tests without any problem. I had my second swab in 8 days today. But the results don't seem to come through within the 7 day time span that the survey worker told me was the turnaround time. So even when you get the tests, it's no use until you get the results. I suspect that there's a swab swamp building up and many of the lab techs who were working on them have returned to their normal jobs.


----------



## PeteXXX (15 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> We've two in our nearest town and one in each of the next three nearest.
> 
> They've been idle every time I've been past but loads of people are posting online that they can't get an appointment. Something seems very wrong.


My daughter had to get my grandson (6) tested, as he had sneezes and snot, before he could return to school. She drove in, got him swabbed and received the results, by text, 2 days later. 

That was on Brackmills industry, Northampton. There is also a walk in centre in the Market Square a few miles away that hasn't looked rushed off its feet whenever I've passed by. 

Maybe not everywhere is like this, though, or it's just the dissatisfied 'customers' reporting in?


----------



## classic33 (16 Sep 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> My daughter had to get my grandson (6) tested, as he had sneezes and snot, before he could return to school. She drove in, got him swabbed and received the results, by text, 2 days later.
> 
> That was on Brackmills industry, Northampton. There is also a walk in centre in the Market Square a few miles away that hasn't looked rushed off its feet whenever I've passed by.
> 
> Maybe not everywhere is like this, though, or it's just the dissatisfied 'customers' reporting in?


Last test, I just walked.
Those running the test centre weren't rushed off their feet, by their own admission, for the four days they were there.

Wheels fell off the wagon, when it came to the results. Someone else's details.


----------



## mjr (16 Sep 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> Maybe not everywhere is like this, though, or it's just the dissatisfied 'customers' reporting in?


Probably, as they've not much else to do until they can get a test result.

There seem to be enough of them to suggest problems, don't there?


----------



## Wobblers (16 Sep 2020)

MarkF said:


> I used a plural of actions, no point in singling out masks. The hysteria caused a crazed NHS bed clearance, which directly caused the deaths in care homes, I alluded to this as it was happening and "last days " patients were quickly gone too. I would like to see data for patients under 70 who arrived into hospital from "normal" life and died from Covid-19, I think it would be astonishingly low. The lockdown has done nothing to move us forward (Sweden) but has huge human and economic consequences and masks (no scientific proven benefit) are now used as a placebo/visible tool to endorse the governments crazy doubling down of a horrible mistake ( I don't buy the conspiracy theories).
> 
> It's only going one way, I think most know that now and this threads vitality also points that way. It would have been good for a proper debate to have been had, but "idiot", "plonker" & "braindead" unsurprisingly didn't do much to give confidence to the very small handful of doubters (not deniers) to express their views. Although..........I fully understand how people reacted given the mainstream news bias and political revenge opportunity, but the longer this farce goes on, the more people we will kill, who wants to be complicit in that?
> 
> ...



You are cherry picking. You're ignoring the fact that the majority - overwhelming majority in fact - of epidemiologists and health professionals are saying the opposite of your beliefs.

There is no shortage of high quality data showing that face coverings, even simple improvised cloth ones, significantly reduce droplet spread. Since this is a major transmission route for CV19 it is hardily surprising that masks should become recommended as a means to reduce transmission. Further, there is evidence from a animal model (hamsters, if IIRC) that mask wearing reduces the chances of becoming seriously ill. It's thought that this is due to the mask reducing the viral load, so meaning less serious illness is experienced. Yes, humans aren't hamsters, but our respiratory systems aren't _that_ different. Besides, it wouldn't be ethical deliberately infect people to see if we could replicate this...

In short, wearing a mask protects others, by reducing the chances that an infected person will spread the disease. But it also protects _you_, by reducing your viral load. There is no good reason not to wear one in an enclosed space.

Lockdowns certainly work to reduce CV19 transmission. Every single country which has stopped an outbreak hs done so with lockdown. There are no exceptions - the evidence is absolutely unambiguous. In all my time as a professional scientist, I can't recall ever coming across a dataset so clear. The corollary is just as clear: where lockdowns have been relaxed, cases have increased - India is the unfortunate proof of that observation.

It certainly could be argued that lockdowns cause immense economic damage. They certainly do: a lockdown is the bluntest of blunt instruments, therefore they should only be used when there is no other recourse. The other viable option that we know of is test, trace and isolate those who have the virus and those who've been exposed to it. But that strategy only works when cases are low. For most countries, the best strategy (once CV19 is established) is lockdown followed by rigorous test and trace. This is the strategy China followed, and it clearly worked. 

I'd far prefer to see a rigorous test, trace and quarantine policy in place rather than wholesale lockdown. Unfortunately we don't have that - and the consequence is all too obvious, with an exponentially rising number of infections. Which leaves us with what? Remember that just leaving the virus to run its course through the UK with hundreds of thousands of deaths and many left with long term disabilities is a policy which itself comes with severe economic consequences, never mind being politically unthinkable and ethically repugnant.


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## roubaixtuesday (16 Sep 2020)

steve292 said:


> I don't know much about the others but he is a nasty piece of work and quite possibly a fraud



Yet keeps getting air time from the right wing press. Whoda thunk.


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## qigong chimp (16 Sep 2020)

Bumbles is a fascist?!!


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## Rezillo (16 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Yet keeps getting air time from the right wing press. Whoda thunk.



Michael Levitt seems just as bonkers:


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## fossyant (17 Sep 2020)

The North East is looking at a more strict lockdown from this evening


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## Tanis8472 (17 Sep 2020)

The self-gratification artists just not caring are they. 
daffodils


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## mjr (17 Sep 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> The self-gratification artists just not caring are they.
> daffodils


In Westminster or the North East?

I believe people would be more inclined to comply if the rules appeared to make sense and not have exceptions for hunting, lacrosse, salmon fishing and other "posh" pastimes, as well as seemingly anything involving payment, including many subscription sports clubs. It's difficult to accept not being able to see all your family in one visit when there's groups of 22 sweaty panting Sunday League footballers kicking lumps out of each other in a very not socially distanced way each week and their helpers and families shouting over each other on the touchline - and as far as I know, that's legal because the Football Association has submitted some approved plan and risk assessments to DCMS even if there's no sign that anything has changed on the ground.

There's also the stupidity of allowing different groups of six to meet in the same unventilated room as long as they don't mingle but with no time limit, or for someone to be part of unlimited different groups of six during the day, with not even advice to limit that as far as I've seen.


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## matticus (17 Sep 2020)

Are you really lumping together "posh" pastimes such as salmon fish, lacrosse, and Sunday League football ???


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## mjr (17 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> Are you really lumping together "posh" pastimes such as salmon fish, lacrosse, and Sunday League football ???


No. Two categories: "posh" pastimes; and things you have to pay for, which includes Sunday League football. Apparently Coronavirus is scared of payment and toffs.


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## matticus (17 Sep 2020)

Ah OK (i haven't seen any hunting or lacrosse this year, so I was bit off the pace there).

Free sport is in there too - cycling groups (arguably a middle-class sport these days, but no fees required).
Parkrun are still aiming for October (which will be an astonishing achievement, but we'll see ...)

I might agree that it's only *organised* sport which has come back. An unfortunate side-effect of the exemption system


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## mjr (17 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> Free sport is in there too - cycling groups (arguably a middle-class sport these days, but no fees required).


No, even subscription group cycling is back down to sixes, unless you've seen something that I haven't. Cycling UK updated their advice last week, after two weeks of saying 30 was allowed but 15 would be better. As far as I know, BC never went above six, although I've seen a nearby club out with more.

If you think any free mass sport/activity is exempt, please link to where it says that. I hope you're right but fear I am.


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## Low Gear Guy (17 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> The North East is looking at a more strict lockdown from this evening


Cue for a last night of drinking in the city centre


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## Tanis8472 (17 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> In Westminster or the North East?
> 
> I believe people would be more inclined to comply if the rules appeared to make sense and not have exceptions for hunting, lacrosse, salmon fishing and other "posh" pastimes, as well as seemingly anything involving payment, including many subscription sports clubs. It's difficult to accept not being able to see all your family in one visit when there's groups of 22 sweaty panting Sunday League footballers kicking lumps out of each other in a very not socially distanced way each week and their helpers and families shouting over each other on the touchline - and as far as I know, that's legal because the Football Association has submitted some approved plan and risk assessments to DCMS even if there's no sign that anything has changed on the ground.
> 
> There's also the stupidity of allowing different groups of six to meet in the same unventilated room as long as they don't mingle but with no time limit, or for someone to be part of unlimited different groups of six during the day, with not even advice to limit that as far as I've seen.



About this ^^^.Sorry was being very blunt.


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## matticus (17 Sep 2020)

BC group riding may be in groups of 6, but I believe mass races are still happening. Certainly TTs with big fields are allowed.

There is a local "Open" Hill Climb with prizes coming up soon - the sponsors could easily switch to paying everyone's entry fee. So IN PRINCIPLE there is no bar to free sport; it's just an unintended quirk of the bureaucracy we currently have.


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## DCLane (17 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> BC group riding may be in groups of 6, but I believe mass races are still happening. Certainly TTs with big fields are allowed.
> 
> There is a local "Open" Hill Climb with prizes coming up soon - the sponsors could easily switch to paying everyone's entry fee. So IN PRINCIPLE there is no bar to free sport; it's just an unintended quirk of the bureaucracy we currently have.



Racing is still happening - but in smaller groups. Pre-entry only, pre-event screening and temperature checks. I've been racing at Newcastle-under-Lyme which has put together some excellent principles that BC have praised: https://www.britishcycling.org.uk/a...s-return-of-racing-after-four-month-absence-0

As for TT's / hillclimbs they are happening but with tight restrictions. No more than 5 competitors near the start, own pen/mask to sign on, own pins, results online only.


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## randynewmanscat (17 Sep 2020)

steve292 said:


> I don't know much about the others but he is a nasty piece of work and quite possibly a fraud


His name rings a bell. One of the doctors bought by the Libyan government to provide evidence of imminent death of convicted bomber Al Megrahi who rose like lazarus from his sick bed and lived on with friends and family. 
I'd be interested to see which oath Karol signed or swore on.


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## randynewmanscat (17 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> My local Co-op's not checking anyone or asking them to wear a face covering - not since they've got screens up. They don't wear them either.
> 
> Over in Knowsley today for a velodrome session and the store nearby had about 30% of people wearing them, with the staff not doing so.
> 
> ...


Same as my friend in South Manchester told me on Monday. He said many people just wore them as chin ornaments in case they needed to flip them up should the need (being asked to) arose. 
Over here the corona is gaining pace again due to the French living up to their stereotype of taking holidays seriously. However a trip to the shops is a different story and you will not see one person in any shop not wearing a mask.


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## pawl (17 Sep 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Same as my friend in South Manchester told me on Monday. He said many people just wore them as chin ornaments in case they needed to flip them up should the need (being asked to) arose.
> Over here the corona is gaining pace again due to the French living up to their stereotype of taking holidays seriously. However a trip to the shops is a different story and you will not see one person in any shop not wearing a mask.




I have been impressed by the amount of fans at the side of the road wearing face protection.Chapeau
Also noticed the motorcycle riders are wearing face protection.Even those wearing full face masks 👍👍


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## marinyork (17 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> No, even subscription group cycling is back down to sixes, unless you've seen something that I haven't. Cycling UK updated their advice last week, after two weeks of saying 30 was allowed but 15 would be better. As far as I know, BC never went above six, although I've seen a nearby club out with more.
> 
> If you think any free mass sport/activity is exempt, please link to where it says that. I hope you're right but fear I am.



There seems to be a divide on this on groups. 

Many more informal groups seem to be wanting to maximise the numbers. The more serious sounding groups seem to be saying stay at six, with what would have been superbig deal events with lots of people running larger with lots of organising. That makes sense as some have put in a lot of thought whereas the more informal groups were always slapping on a max 30 and generally will have thought about it less. So for them it's just a continuation.

On my evening sojourn I saw a group of 43 closely packed walkers on Tuesday night and a gym group of 13. My on-line gym group are using it as an excuse to get out walking every Saturday in groups bigger than six .

Mental health stuff has been talking about this in terms of groups, although they are allowed more than six they aren't wanting to do so, or stick to numbers close to six e.g. eight and ten are numbers I've heard.


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## Rusty Nails (17 Sep 2020)

Has there ever been any scientific/statistical/epidemiological justification for 6 as a group number. Is it just that it is an easy to remember rule of thumb number that covers a lot of families? How much difference would groups of 4 or 8 make?

Do the Scotland or Wales numbers, which do not count those under the age of 12 in the 6, make a huge difference, ie 3 couples with 3 kids each makes a group of 15 which is within their guidelines.

I think that it is this, what many see as arbitrary, choice of a number that makes some people not see it as that inviolable, although I can well see that any choice of numbers will have its critics.

I am not worried about the group size being 6 as that, conveniently, is the number in my close family, including one toddler. So Christmas won't be affected.....hopefully.


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## marinyork (17 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Has there ever been any scientific/statistical/epidemiological justification for 6 as a group number. Is it just that it is an easy to remember rule of thumb number that covers a lot of families? How much difference would groups of 4 or 8 make?



The Whitty and the Harries have said, more quite some time ago that it's believed words to the effect that the virus spreads most effectively in groups of 10-20 people indoors where they know each other well. They've never said where this comes from directly.

I know a contact tracer and they are a lot busier now than a month ago where they had no work. They said that contacts were mostly transmission indoors in people's houses with extended family and very close friends/parties as was the rumour circulating that track & trace thought this and fed it into the government.


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## marinyork (17 Sep 2020)

I might add that although track and trace isn't working well, it's interesting as if one believes this evidence, what other ways are there of ascertaining what goes on indoors in private settings? The police seem to have said about larger gatherings indoors in close proximity a lot recently. What I took from this was the 30 law was meaning that was often what people aimed for and often spilled over/out of control into larger gatherings.


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## mjr (17 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Has there ever been any scientific/statistical/epidemiological justification for 6 as a group number. Is it just that it is an easy to remember rule of thumb number that covers a lot of families? How much difference would groups of 4 or 8 make?


I can give you a geometric/epidemiological one in that once you get more than 6 people, someone can be surrounded and unable to move away without encroaching on the 2m distancing.





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packing_problem#Hexagonal_packing_of_circles

Interestingly, no maximum is given in WHO advice on small public gatherings and the general advice only says to avoid crowds and crowded places.

Maybe gov.uk are guessing that Brits are daffodils who won't quarantine if they have coughing or sneezing or have other potential covid symptoms? But then I would expect advice to allow some sort of minimum time between seeing different groups of six. As it stands, I could go spend 30 minutes in each one of my neighbours' houses talking to them, one after another with no break between, and that would be legal and not even against any gov.uk advice, despite being a really rather stupid thing to do.

In other news, Alitalia is now running "covid-free" flights. All passengers must either pass a coronavirus rapid test at the airport or present a certificate of passing a clear test in the previous 72 hours. I wonder how long until the first fake certificate or covid outbreak is linked to one of them.


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## marinyork (17 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> In other news, Alitalia is now running "covid-free" flights. All passengers must either pass a coronavirus rapid test at the airport or present a certificate of passing a clear test in the previous 72 hours. I wonder how long until the first fake certificate or covid outbreak is linked to one of them.



Italian tv were going on about it. They were promising saliva tests soon and even quicker results than 30 mins. It didn't say what data this was based on!


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## Joey Shabadoo (17 Sep 2020)

> A video being widely shared on Facebook and Instagram is being accompanied by false claims that receiving a coronavirus vaccine has already been made mandatory and that it will be used to inject microchips into people.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54187391

Words - I have none.


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## fossyant (17 Sep 2020)

Leeds and Liverpool looking likely to join the tougher lockdown.


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## midlife (17 Sep 2020)

Lancashire as well according to Sky..


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## classic33 (17 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Leeds and Liverpool looking likely to join the tougher lockdown.


Leeds has been likely for over a week now.


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## Julia9054 (18 Sep 2020)

So we are definitely not having a second national lockdown. 
Just 270 local ones


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## Adam4868 (18 Sep 2020)

Looking like near enough all of Lancashire with lockdown restrictions except for here in Blackpool.Going to be a busy weekend again.


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## IaninSheffield (18 Sep 2020)

pawl said:


> I have been impressed by the amount of fans at the side of the road wearing face protection.Chapeau


Interesting how perspectives differ. Watching last night's highlights, I was struck by the number of 'fans' without facemasks running alongside the competitors, well inside 2m, and seemingly screaming their support.
Surely that puts both competitors and nearby fans at greater risk?


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## brodiej (18 Sep 2020)

This article in Nature is a good summary of rapid antibody testing worldwide. 
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02661-2


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## Flick of the Elbow (18 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> As for TT's / hillclimbs they are happening but with tight restrictions. No more than 5 competitors near the start, own pen/mask to sign on, own pins, results online only.


How are TT’s working with the pusher-off ? Under normal circumstances they would come into close contact with the entire field.


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## Flick of the Elbow (18 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Do the Scotland or Wales numbers, which do not count those under the age of 12 in the 6, make a huge difference, ie 3 couples with 3 kids each makes a group of 15 which is within their guidelines.


I don’t know about Wales but that isn’t within the Scottish rules. We’re only allowed to meet with one other household in Scotland. So it’s more relaxed than the English rule in one sense but stricter in another. It probably evens out.


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## Flick of the Elbow (18 Sep 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> Interesting how perspectives differ. Watching last night's highlights, I was struck by the number of 'fans' without facemasks running alongside the competitors, well inside 2m, and seemingly screaming their support.
> Surely that puts both competitors and nearby fans at greater risk?


Very much so. Many of the teams have been very angry about this.


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## mjr (18 Sep 2020)

Fake "covid marshals" trying to force their way into houses: https://www.hertfordshiremercury.co...s/covid-coronavirus-marshal-uk-police-4523366


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## DCLane (18 Sep 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> How are TT’s working with the pusher-off ? Under normal circumstances they would come into close contact with the entire field.



They're working fine as there's no pusher-off; riders start with one foot on the ground and are counted down from a 2 metre+ distance, usually from a parked car.

It's the same for hillclimbs, although there's a 'stick' approach which is being tried for these - sanitised between riders*:







Note: we've not tried this. My son starts his hill-climbing season this Sunday and we'll see how it works. He may just let go and fall over!


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## tom73 (18 Sep 2020)

Which ever way you look at this things are not going well. 
Case numbers are up and growing.
Testing is all but on it's knees and no real plan how to get it back it. 
Too many schools look to be demanding test results for nothing more than a cold. Not surprising as the messaging is still a mess and too many still don't understand the basics of covid. Contact tracing is still in a mess in some areas it looks to be working but still not a nationally joined up process. 
Too many placers have clearly just used the" cut out and keep" covid secure poster as window dressing and done sod all else. Which is going to have to change and fast. 
Hospital are starting to clear the decks and care homes are fearing the worse. 
Lock downs are becoming more wide spread with more to come stay around for some time

Sadly we still have too many people just want "normal" what ever the cost and it will cost someone a life one way or the other. So guess what it's not coming soon so get use to things and get a grip. 
Too many willing to trust the wackos with no real medical, scientific credit. Or my mates sisters "friend" who's friend has a friend of someone she "knows" who posted it facebook about something she's been told by her "friend" who's sister works with someone at the vets. 

Oh and still have the Boris, Hancock and dido show who lost it weeks ago who still don't have a clue.


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## tom73 (18 Sep 2020)

For the many who try to make sense of all this and try to do what's been asked. But find it complex this in BMJ
may help to explain why covid is complex and how 5 simple rules can help managing uncertainty in a pandemic. 
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/07/22/managing-uncertainty-in-the-covid-19-era/


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## raleighnut (18 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Which ever way you look at this things are not going well.
> Case numbers are up and growing.
> Testing is all but on it's knees and no real plan how to get it back it.
> Too many schools look to be demanding test results for nothing more than a cold. Not surprising as the messaging is still a mess and too many still don't understand the basics of covid. Contact tracing is still in a mess in some areas it looks to be working but still not a nationally joined up process.
> ...


Sadly yep.


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## classic33 (18 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Which ever way you look at this things are not going well.
> Case numbers are up and growing.
> Testing is all but on it's knees and no real plan how to get it back it.
> Too many schools look to be demanding test results for nothing more than a cold. Not surprising as the messaging is still a mess and too many still don't understand the basics of covid. Contact tracing is still in a mess in some areas it looks to be working but still not a nationally joined up process.
> ...


What those, and others, are going to have to get into their heads is, that whatever follows will not be the "normal" that was there before all this started. 

Like it or not, there'll be no way back to where we were before.


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## SpokeyDokey (18 Sep 2020)

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Looking at the data in here it seems that as tests (actual) were ramped up from 1st July then positive case outcomes ramped up too. No surprise there.

The number of Covid related deaths appear to have remained resolutely low and in the context of the 'usual' 2000 UK deaths per day figures of 10-20 Covid related deaths a day are pretty much negligible.

Hospitalised patient numbers are also very low. The most recent data I can find shows that just over 170000 beds are available in the NHS UK (April 20) with just under 1000 currently occupied by Covid patients (0.6%) - as per the link above.

Outside of FB and forums my experiences from conversations with people I know suggest that the view is the media are whipping up hysteria for no valid reason.

Seems to me that tactical activities at local level are keeping a lid on the situation pretty well.


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## tom73 (18 Sep 2020)

Case numbers are doubling every 8 days if we do nothing and quickly next two week really. Daily hospital admissions will be at mid march levels by next weekend and pre lockdown level early October. They may not be higher death rate but that figure is weeks behind anyway but the point is more milder cases are getting to point of not being able to manage the virus at home. In trun means more cutting back on other hospital admissions and routine work. More people having to wait for help and more quality of life effected. In turn something need's to done and done quickly. 
Cases are now growing in all age groups so it's no longer the young the virus is spreading. 
Cases are growing in a wider spread of areas which now includes london which has been pretty low for a good few months up to now. 
I don't call "whipping up" but facts which lay behind the headline figures most media and government don't talk about.


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## tom73 (18 Sep 2020)

It's not good looking good


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## SpokeyDokey (18 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Case numbers are doubling every 8 days if we do nothing and quickly next two week really. Daily hospital admissions will be at mid march levels by next weekend and pre lockdown level early October. They may not be higher death rate but that figure is weeks behind anyway but the point is more milder cases are getting to point of not being able to manage the virus at home. In trun means more cutting back on other hospital admissions and routine work. More people having to wait for help and more quality of life effected. In turn something need's to done and done quickly.
> Cases are now growing in all age groups so it's no longer the young the virus is spreading.
> Cases are growing in a wider spread of areas which now includes london which has been pretty low for a good few months up to now.
> I don't call "whipping up" but facts which lay behind the headline figures most media and government don't talk about.



What were the daily mid-March admissions numbers?

Also: the Gov' is doing lots of things imo. They seem to be on top of localised activity in hotspots, lots of testing and mooted scenarios such as total UK-wide short-term lockdown from what I can glean from the press.


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## tom73 (18 Sep 2020)

Independent sage 10 point plan on how to get out this mess. 
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-...ergency-plan-integrated-170920-amended-ES.pdf


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## tom73 (18 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> What were the daily mid-March admissions numbers?
> 
> Also: the Gov' is doing lots of things imo. They seem to be on top of localised activity in hotspots, lots of testing and mooted scenarios such as total UK-wide short-term lockdown from what I can glean from the press.



Much of the government action is dealing with outbreaks and only then it's mostly down to local public health telling them of a problem. 
local public health should not have to think of ways to bypass national tack and trace. Locally it's working fine mostly as it always have been long before covid. You don't set up a process outside of public health, primary care and GP's you involve them and use them to do testing. Not pay serco (who don't even use serco for health matters) and not appoint an ex phone sales CEO to head it. Remember it's not NHS T&T that's not working but Serco T&T. You don't disband the national public health body in the middle of pandemic. 
Testing is much more then a numbers game. Many are still not processed in time to be of any use tack and trace wise which is what matters.
1st week of September only 9% came back quick enough.
They are still clueless at preventing them in first place which would save a lot of issues, lives and money. 
They still are not following the science but cherry picking it always too little too late.
So yes the government is going lots of things sadly mostly the wrong ones.


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## Mo1959 (18 Sep 2020)

Can’t help feeling this was almost bound to happen. The government were over keen to get the economy up and running too quickly. They encouraged people back to work and into public transport along with giving incentives for people to sit in restaurants. It almost feels like they are blaming the population for it all going wrong now.


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## SpokeyDokey (18 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Much of the government action is dealing with outbreaks and only then it's mostly down to local public health telling them of a problem.
> local public health should not have to think of ways to bypass national tack and trace. Locally it's working fine mostly as it always have been long before covid. You don't set up a process outside of public health, primary care and GP's you involve them and use them to do testing. Not pay serco (who don't even use serco for health matters) and not appoint an ex phone sales CEO to head it. Remember it's not NHS T&T that's not working but Serco T&T. You don't disband the national public health body in the middle of pandemic.
> Testing is much more then a numbers game. Many are still not processed in time to be of any use tack and trace wise which is what matters.
> 1st week of September only 9% came back quick enough.
> ...



Can you please answer the question re mid-March daily admissions rate. Having trouble finding them myself. Thanks.


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## midlife (18 Sep 2020)




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## Chromatic (18 Sep 2020)

View: https://www.scribd.com/document/475998860/The-Yan-Report#from_embed


Some reading about where it may have come from.


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## tom73 (18 Sep 2020)

@SpokeyDokey looks like midlife has beaten me to it. 
@Mo1959 that’s been the plan for weeks even today Boris has been blaming us for not social distancing.
Nothing do with fudge of guidelines he’s come up with or falling asleep for the start. No it‘s us all way.


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## mjr (18 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> View attachment 547850


Can you find one going back to mid March? I didn't and have to go now


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## Ming the Merciless (18 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> I can give you a geometric/epidemiological one in that once you get more than 6 people, someone can be surrounded and unable to move away without encroaching on the 2m distancing.
> View attachment 547667
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packing_problem#Hexagonal_packing_of_circles
> ...



You sure that doesn’t also occur with 5 people?


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## Beebo (18 Sep 2020)

The last Cobra meeting was 20th May. 
what planning have the government actually done for the 2nd wave? It does seem very lax.


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## pawl (18 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> They're working fine as there's no pusher-off; riders start with one foot on the ground and are counted down from a 2 metre+ distance, usually from a parked car.
> 
> It's the same for hillclimbs, although there's a 'stick' approach which is being tried for these - sanitised between riders*:
> 
> ...




That’s a bit novel A crutch to help the rider get up the hill


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## PK99 (18 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
> 
> Looking at the data in here it seems that as tests (actual) were ramped up from 1st July then positive case outcomes ramped up too. No surprise there.
> 
> ...



The linked charts are indeed interesting.

The plot of Cases per day ie tested positive looks strange to anyone numerate.

It looks like an artificially truncated peak from March to May - natural phenomena do not look like that.

Going back to Uni Lab days, it looks like a data set where the instrument used topped out and was unable to measure the peak.

A key implication of that is comparing current case numbers to March to May numbers is simply wrong.







The plot of testing, confirms this to be the case.
Testing was at capacity and only hospitalised cases were being tested.
Clearly the "wild in the population" numbers were far higher than the "tested positive" numbers.






Even more notable, is that the uptick in July of "Tested positive" correlates exactly with the uptick in processed tests also in July.

This paper from May seems to confirm this analysis and puts a number to the missed cases in the truncated peak.

_"New estimates suggest that the lockdown may have come at a crucial time in our struggle against the virus. According to our modelling work, published in Eurosurveillance, on day one of the lockdown, the COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom was likely on the verge of exploding, with around 100,000 people being infected every day. "_

https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/...ions-every-day-why-uk-lockdown-came-just-time


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## brodiej (18 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Seems to me that tactical activities at local level are keeping a lid on the situation pretty well.



I really don't think the lid is being kept on the situation at all - even the PM is talking about the 2nd wave being here

The graphs on the covid dashboard give next to no useful info due to the massive variation in who got tested through the year.
You need to look at ONS data and hospital admissions etc for useful stats


View: https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1307039298827571202?s=19


Is a useful summary of the current situation which Christina Pagel from UCL has just put up.

ie the situation is not good but there's still some hope


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## tom73 (18 Sep 2020)

From next week large chunk of business will by law have to record users details for T&T. Max fine £4000 if they don’t.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1005/pdfs/uksi_20201005_en.pdf
it looks like its download the NHS app ,use the QR code or your not coming in.
Or they can record your details as now. Either way if you don’t they are expected to refuse entry.
T & T data policy has been updated no word on data from business the business is the data controller of data collected from individuals.


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## DCLane (18 Sep 2020)

SWMBO's ward (she's on rehab wards for stroke/neurology that's also used as Covid rehab) has been freeing up beds. The first patients arrive next week and they're preparing for many more. This time there's enough pumps for her to use as a Dietitian whereas last time it was a choice about who got fed. And probably lived.


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## Wobblers (19 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
> 
> Looking at the data in here it seems that as tests (actual) were ramped up from 1st July then positive case outcomes ramped up too. No surprise there.
> 
> ...



The most reliable source of data is the ONS surveys. They show that infections have been increasing since mid August. Hospital admissions have been increasing since early September - and remember that hospital admission typically occurs 10-14 days after infection. The reason we haven't - yet - seen an increase in deaths is that most new cases have been in the young, who're less likely to get severely ill. That, unfortunately, is now changing: the virus is now spreading to more vulnerable groups.

Indeed, both the ONS and hospital admissions show a doubling time of 8 days. It's crucial to understand the importance of this: if this continues, we will be right back to where we were just before lockdown (100,000 new infections every day) by mid October. We don't have "a lid on the situation"; we have exponential growth. With a typical lag from infection to death of three weeks we can expect to see a sharp rise in fatalities by the end of the month, and over 1000 deaths every day by the end of October.

Unfortunately, test and trace is not working particularly well, and only 20% of those told to self isolate actually do. Which is not surprising, many people will lose their jobs if they do - we need to be supporting those people (and not just financially) in order to deliver much needed improvements. Without improvement, I see little chance that this second wave will be quelled. I fear that the eventual death toll will be much higher than the first wave, as so many people are weary of lockdown, so are less willing to comply.

My advice, for what it's worth, is to wear a mask, maintain social distancing, wash your hands, and above all avoid crowds and busy places. Stay safe!


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## Pale Rider (19 Sep 2020)

Am I the only one who has lost track of what we are supposed to be doing?

The national restrictions seem to change often, and here in the North East we now have local restrictions as well.

I am keen to be in compliance, and I think I am, but only because my current 'on the sick' lifestyle doesn't involve doing a lot of anything very much.

Covid safe, but mentally not too clever.

It would be easy to blame the government, as a lot of posters on here have done.

However, short of another even more swingeing lock down, I can't see how it would be possible to devise and publish simple rules that would do the job.

It always seemed to me inevitable cases would spike as we returned to normality, particularly the reopening of schools.

The virus is no respecter of the lifestyle we've come to expect in a mature democracy.

Which leaves me with no better answer than @McWobble:



McWobble said:


> My advice, for what it's worth, is to wear a mask, maintain social distancing, wash your hands, and above all avoid crowds and busy places. Stay safe!


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## DaveReading (19 Sep 2020)

McWobble said:


> With a typical lag from infection to death of three weeks we can expect to see a sharp rise in fatalities by the end of the month, and over 1000 deaths every day by the end of October.



You need to qualify that prediction to take account of the fact that the percentage of infections that result in death is markedly less than it was six months ago.


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## Rezillo (19 Sep 2020)

Chromatic said:


> Some reading about where it may have come from.




Some reading about this report:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...-evolution-and-delineation-of-its-probable-s/


View: https://twitter.com/k_g_andersen/status/1306037072914866178


https://www.technologynetworks.com/...-resulted-from-laboratory-modification-340515

It is also claimed that the research institute this came from was directed by Steve Bannon until he was charged.


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## midlife (19 Sep 2020)

DaveReading said:


> You need to qualify that prediction to take account of the fact that the percentage of infections that result in death is markedly less than it was six months ago.



I think that as the virus circulates more in the community the older and vulnerable members of society will come across it and the death rate will start to rise again. 

Have a feeling that Boris will give us this weekend off and announce something on Sunday night.


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## tom73 (19 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> SWMBO's ward (she's on rehab wards for stroke/neurology that's also used as Covid rehab) has been freeing up beds. The first patients arrive next week and they're preparing for many more. This time there's enough pumps for her to use as a Dietitian whereas last time it was a choice about who got fed. And probably lived.



Yep same here Mrs 73 was expecting most of this week off due to how her off duty fell. But no she was asked to be part of a rapid discharge team at our hospital. Freeing up beds, reviewing covid treatment pathways and remodelling ward space.


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## Edwardoka (19 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Have a feeling that Boris will give us this weekend off and announce something on Sunday night.


... to come into effect on Friday.


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## deptfordmarmoset (19 Sep 2020)

McWobble said:


> The most reliable source of data is the ONS surveys. They show that infections have been increasing since mid August. Hospital admissions have been increasing since early September - and remember that hospital admission typically occurs 10-14 days after infection. The reason we haven't - yet - seen an increase in deaths is that most new cases have been in the young, who're less likely to get severely ill. That, unfortunately, is now changing: the virus is now spreading to more vulnerable groups.
> 
> Indeed, both the ONS and hospital admissions show a doubling time of 8 days. It's crucial to understand the importance of this: if this continues, we will be right back to where we were just before lockdown (100,000 new infections every day) by mid October. We don't have "a lid on the situation"; we have exponential growth. With a typical lag from infection to death of three weeks we can expect to see a sharp rise in fatalities by the end of the month, and over 1000 deaths every day by the end of October.
> 
> ...


Alongside the ONS figures, the C-19/Zoe survey, with over 4 million contributors, gives a good estimation of the current situation. In my borough* the estimate 4 weeks ago for active cases was 41. Today it is 426. They give an England-wide R number of 1.4, meaning there's a doubling every 7 days. (1.3 for Scotland and Wales. No figures for NI.)

*Lewisham, London, where the figures have been low for a while after the very big peak at the start of lockdown.


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## fossyant (19 Sep 2020)

Cases are rocketing at our Uni. Whole block of 200 have to self isolate. One student who knew they had Covid still went to classes and several parties. 9 confirmed cases now. Only takes a few idiots


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## Ming the Merciless (19 Sep 2020)

I have been selected at random for the NHS / imperial college Covid -19 wider test study. They are only testing if you currently have it. The test kit will be couriered to / from house. Think they are missing a trick as a pin prick blood test could also show if you’ve had it. Will know results within a week of test.


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## tom73 (19 Sep 2020)

1st thought this was mocked up but it's official. Whitty looks to have got to breaking point what ever was said it's clear someone has had enough of being ignored. It's says all you need know about the governments handling of this. 
Only one person in the room is in control more of a worry is Hancock sulking in the corner.


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## Ming the Merciless (19 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> 1st thought this was mocked up but it's official. Whitty looks to have got to breaking point what ever was said it's clear someone has had enough of being ignored. It's says all you need know about the governments handling of this.
> Only one person in the room is in control more of a worry is Hancock sulking in the corner.
> View attachment 547959



WTF is Cummings doing there ?


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## deptfordmarmoset (19 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> WTF is Cummings doing there ?


Can't be doing without unelected officials running sovereign UK.


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## midlife (19 Sep 2020)

Photo taken in February? 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1306961831123181574


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## tom73 (19 Sep 2020)

Serco has subcontracted contact tracing to Hays travel customer service staff. This just get's more of a joke by the day people need confidence in the process not this.


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## midlife (19 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Serco has subcontracted contact tracing to Hays travel customer service staff. This just get's more of a joke by the day people need confidence in the process not this.



They were looking at seconding dental students to Track and Trace. Their clinical activity has dropped due to clinic closures and had spare time....


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## Magpies (19 Sep 2020)

All this news is so depressing ..

This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but with a whimper.
..... TS Eliot




tom73 said:


> View attachment 547959


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## tom73 (19 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> They were looking at seconding dental students to Track and Trace. Their clinical activity has dropped due to clinic closures and had spare time....



Things like that sound common sense to me at least they know more about things guess they can't make money from that though. 
Do you know why nothing happened ?


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## midlife (19 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Things like that sound common sense to me at least they know more about things guess they can't make money from that though.
> Do you know why nothing happened ?



There's so much going on under the radar at the moment. 

I think our hospital is quietly emptying itself but officially we are at 80% pre-covid activity as directed by phase 3 of the restart stuff.


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## nickyboy (19 Sep 2020)

So there is an inverse relationship in the short term between how much we open our economy and how many people die from Coronavirus

I wonder what society considers to be the correct balance here? We could totally lock down our economy (again) and get the deaths down to something like zero. Or we could completely unlock everything in which case deaths will probably be back into the hundreds or even thousands per day. Or it could be somewhere between the two

Currently we're at twenty odd deaths per day and rising. I wonder what the "optimal" (a rather unfortunate word but I can't think of a better one) deaths per day is?


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## midlife (19 Sep 2020)

Substitute acceptable for optimal and maybe that's how the government are thinking?


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## Low Gear Guy (19 Sep 2020)

You will never get the government to admit that there is an acceptable level of deaths as this will result in the tagline 'Boris the granny killer'.

Ideally you would want the levels of infections to be steady to plan healthcare but this is incompatible with the exponential growth we have seen. A target maximum number could easily be exceeded very quickly.


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## midlife (19 Sep 2020)

Appears to be some news breaking about fining people that don't isolate

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...llegal-in-bid-to-tackle-second-spike-12076577


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## DCLane (19 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Appears to be some news breaking about fining people that don't isolate
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...llegal-in-bid-to-tackle-second-spike-12076577



They should have done that in the first place. Most of these 'spikes' can be linked to people who decided they knew better.


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## mjr (20 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Appears to be some news breaking about fining people that don't isolate
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...llegal-in-bid-to-tackle-second-spike-12076577


They already have the power to do that under the Public Health Act. Just get the Test and Trace services issuing quarantine orders. Breaking those is illegal and I think you can even be locked up in a secure hospital for the duration of your illness for doing so. It could start tonight but Boris doesn't want to scare the sheep and stop them spending.

The choice is economic damage now to control the virus or more economic damage later after it runs rampant. Our short term governments usually pick jam today and let tomorrow be some other government's problem.


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## classic33 (20 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> They already have the power to do that under the Public Health Act. Just get the Test and Trace services issuing quarantine orders. Breaking those is illegal and I think you can even be locked up in a secure hospital for the duration of your illness for doing so. It could start tonight but Boris doesn't want to* scare the sheep and stop them spending.*
> 
> The choice is economic damage now to control the virus or more economic damage later after it runs rampant. Our short term governments usually pick jam today and let tomorrow be some other government's problem.


And you're in that group, the same as everyone else, if you're following the current rules.


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## marinyork (20 Sep 2020)

I'm inclined to think that the timings of the new fines may also be something to do with the government app launching on 24th(?). Fines should have been done earlier, but it's more recently where the most egregious cases of a few idiots have come to light and possibly more attempts at enforcement.


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## Beebo (20 Sep 2020)

They were saying on the news yesterday that the UK population as a whole are worse than most other countries at following the rules which is why we can’t be trusted like the Swedes were. 

Something has changed in the last few years because I would have always expected us to be one of the best.


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## Ming the Merciless (20 Sep 2020)

Beebo said:


> They were saying on the news yesterday that the UK population as a whole are worse than most other countries at following the rules which is why we can’t be trusted like the Swedes were.
> 
> Something has changed in the last few years because I would have always expected us to be one of the best.



It’s part of the strategy of blame the public not their handling of it. Politicians have a modus operandi that involves constantly lying then deny it when caught out. We are reaping what they’ve been sowing for years. Not that many trust politicians to be telling the truth.


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## marinyork (20 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> It’s part of the strategy of blame the public not their handling of it. Politicians have a modus operandi that involves constantly lying then deny it when caught out. We are reaping what they’ve been sowing for years. Not that many trust politicians to be telling the truth.



After MPs expenses scandal there is no reason why anyone should trust an MP as it showed that most are greedy and badly behaved.


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## tom73 (20 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> They already have the power to do that under the Public Health Act. Just get the Test and Trace services issuing quarantine orders. Breaking those is illegal and I think you can even be locked up in a secure hospital for the duration of your illness for doing so. It could start tonight but Boris doesn't want to scare the sheep and stop them spending.
> 
> The choice is economic damage now to control the virus or more economic damage later after it runs rampant. Our short term governments usually pick jam today and let tomorrow be some other government's problem.



It's true the power is already around but we don't have enough Public Health Officers or other appointed professional such as an infectious disease Nurse to review and issues orders for the high number of Covid cases. Remember most Test and Trace is unqualified call handlers they are not qualified to make clinical decisions. If they had enough clinical contact tracers working the phones then maybe you could do it that way. But that cost money and means using NHS not Serco so that's off the table. Much better to shift the blame to the public for not going something. 
The powers set up for Covid only ever covered refusing a test not quarantine. It was PHE who had the power to detain for 14 days then another 14 if still a risk. Until they get updated the current powers can only be used and by officers named in them. You can't be held in a secure hospital without a court order or detrained under the mental health act. Even then the mental capacity act still comes into play. Even if you wanted to we don't have enough placers for people who really need them prisons are full of people in real need but not place to go.


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## nickyboy (20 Sep 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> You will never get the government to admit that there is an acceptable level of deaths as this will result in the tagline 'Boris the granny killer'.
> 
> Ideally you would want the levels of infections to be steady to plan healthcare but this is incompatible with the exponential growth we have seen. A target maximum number could easily be exceeded very quickly.


For sure, but it's a reasonable topic to discuss here, no? 
No country other than NZ with its unique geographical position has stamped out the virus. Every country is working towards an "optimal" balance between opening up society and economy and Covid deaths. I'm just interested to hear where folk think that optimal number is
Fwiw I think it's more than we are experiencing now but less than the 1000/day we did experience. Probably North of 100. It's a difficult topic but this question must be central to every country's response, although few governments would admit it


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## tom73 (20 Sep 2020)

The have your cake and eat it "plan" that Boris likes can only work if they start using the information we have both the data to know what the virus is doing and the clinical and scientific knowledge we now have. Testing needs to get much smarter and more targeted and backed up with availability and a more local focus. Given the high number of asymptomatic cases the government needs to formally start working around particle transmission and use of face coverings needs to be made wider. "Covid secure" need's a rethink and be enforced the tick box approach won't cut it. None of this can ever work without clear, simple and consistent public health campaign. 
If more money is going to be poured in to keep things moving then that's needs targeting both at a business level and a public one.


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## marinyork (20 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> For sure, but it's a reasonable topic to discuss here, no?
> No country other than NZ with its unique geographical position has stamped out the virus. Every country is working towards an "optimal" balance between opening up society and economy and Covid deaths. I'm just interested to hear where folk think that optimal number is
> Fwiw I think it's more than we are experiencing now but less than the 1000/day we did experience. Probably North of 100. It's a difficult topic but this question must be central to every country's response, although few governments would admit it



I suspect the so called optimal number is something like 50-200 deaths per day .

It's probably not actually a real world solution though. By the time you have 100 deaths per day let alone 200 you're quite close to unstable solutions and it running wildly out of control. So it would mean that you'd have to have a much lower solution perhaps something like 25 per day.

I don't think there is a societal response. It's split down the middle like brexit. Half of society wants the economy prioritised, half wants physical health prioritised. It also means it's a nightmare as very crudely you could see from a completely independent point of view that half of the population won't 'cooperate' with getting the economy going and the other half the population won't cooperate with severe restrictions (which is what people go on about on here all day long). None of that works unless you take 90% of the population with you and various studies have shown 20% of people cause 80% of cases deliberately/otherwise and a few idiots causing outbreaks whether it's south korea or bolton. You need to take 90%+ of the population with you with whatever is implemented.


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## Ming the Merciless (20 Sep 2020)

That implies there’s some nice graph between open up these bits of the economy and the death rate will be this. There isn’t , sure there are models, but this is the first time they are being tested. There are a lot of assumptions in the models, some may or may not match the real world. So they’ve got to monitor what is going on. That’s where the test test test mantra of WHO comes from. But there’s a lag between spikes and deaths. It’s not as simple as open these bits up, and deaths will be this. Truth is they don’t know which is why there is so much disagreement on what to do.

There also a certain butterfly effect of chaos theory in this. Look at Bolton, a guy returns from holiday, tests positive, doesn’t isolate, goes on pub crawl. Suddenly they are in special measures from a relatively low infection rate before that.


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## tom73 (20 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> For sure, but it's a reasonable topic to discuss here, no?
> No country other than NZ with its unique geographical position has stamped out the virus. Every country is working towards an "optimal" balance between opening up society and economy and Covid deaths. I'm just interested to hear where folk think that optimal number is
> Fwiw I think it's more than we are experiencing now but less than the 1000/day we did experience. Probably North of 100. It's a difficult topic but this question must be central to every country's response, although few governments would admit it



The main thing was NZ had a plan and a government that fostered the idea that everyone was in it together. Deaths are only part of it though the economic and social damage of larger number of people with long covid. Will have effects on workforce and primary care services. Then we have the really ill "lucky ones" left with long term health issues which are still very much unknown. So they can't work either and the wider effect on the families. The long term effect on public health are going to big and that's before we even start on the mental and physical health of NHS and social care staff. limiting deaths is only a small part of it. Be it an important one so the debate need's to be much wider then deaths and money. We can't have the latter if the wider public health is bust in the process.


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## Adam4868 (20 Sep 2020)

New restrictions across all of Lancashire... except Blackpool ! WTF is that all about ? As I said yesterday it was absolutely heaving.Queues of at least 50 people to get in any of the Weatherspoons pubs on the seafront.Im a hypocrite because in one way it's good for the town,and it needs the money from tourism.But I can't see how this works regarding the virus ? So from Tuesday anywhere in lancs pubs have to shut at 10,yet come to Blackpool were open as late as you want.Could be a new promotional advert....


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## tom73 (20 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I suspect the so called optimal number is something like 50-200 deaths per day .
> 
> It's probably not actually a real world solution though. By the time you have 100 deaths per day let alone 200 you're quite close to unstable solutions and it running wildly out of control. So it would mean that you'd have to have a much lower solution perhaps something like 25 per day.
> 
> I don't think there is a societal response. It's split down the middle like brexit. Half of society wants the economy prioritised, half wants physical health prioritised. It also means it's a nightmare as very crudely you could see from a completely independent point of view that half of the population won't 'cooperate' with getting the economy going and the other half the population won't cooperate with severe restrictions (which is what people go on about on here all day long). None of that works unless you take 90% of the population with you and various studies have shown 20% of people cause 80% of cases deliberately/otherwise and a few idiots causing outbreaks whether it's south korea or bolton. You need to take 90%+ of the population with you with whatever is implemented.



That's the other part of the science that looks to totality lacking in all this. The more you open up society and work out how to mange it you've got to fully know how it works and the effects it's having.on it. Not sure the government want to listen to the social science or talk about it as it often shines a light on the lack of social policy. Without public trust and cooperation we can't get sadly get much more down the road then we are and the longer this will take. NZ understood that from the word go and built it in to the plan.


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## SkipdiverJohn (20 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's split down the middle like brexit. Half of society wants the economy prioritised, half wants physical health prioritised. It also means it's a nightmare as very crudely you could see from a completely independent point of view that half of the population won't 'cooperate' with getting the economy going and the other half the population won't cooperate with severe restrictions (which is what people go on about on here all day long). None of that works unless you take 90% of the population with you and various studies have shown 20% of people cause 80% of cases deliberately/otherwise and a few idiots causing outbreaks whether it's south korea or bolton. You need to take 90%+ of the population with you with whatever is implemented.



Given any second strict lockdown attempt will simply be ignored by a large part of the population who were clearly already fed up with the first lockdown by the time it got relaxed, any politician with half an ounce of common sense would simply try to keep a lid on the number of daily hospitalisation cases to the point just below NHS overload level and not concern themselves with any other numbers..
The total number of infections doesn't really matter, since most will have no illness or only a mild illness. Coronavirus has now declined a lot in Sweden, because they just adopted a keep it down to a manageable level policy, rather than trying to suppress it hard. Most of the countries that actively tried to stamp out the virus earlier in the year have since seen a second wave that is worse than the first one, but with less deaths. Spain's infection rate is massive, and France is nothing to write home about either. Both countries might has well have not bothered with a lockdown for all it's achieved. It's obvious that you cant contain a contagious infection amongst the general population without literally all normal activity stopping, which no country can afford the economic damage of for very long, and no population will co-operate with indefinitely either.
The ultimate outcome in terms of infections and deaths is not actually going to vary that much amongst countries with similar levels of wealth and healthcare facilities. The difference will be the lockdowners will suffer worse economic outcomes and more deaths from other causes going forward. The UK got slated by all the virtue-signallers for having a very high death rate earlier on, but if you look now there's quite a number of countries with worse rates, and plenty more where the official figures simply aren't credible, and in all likelihood are probably significantly worse than ours in reality.


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## RoadRider400 (20 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Given any second strict lockdown attempt will simply be ignored by a large part of the population who were clearly already fed up with the first lockdown by the time it got relaxed, *any politician with half an ounce of common sense would simply try to keep a lid on the number of daily hospitalisation cases* to the point just below NHS overload level and not concern themselves with any other numbers..


But they dont know which infections will result in hospitalisations. So how do you achieve that? In my mind hospitalisations (a) make a given percentage of total infections (b). Therefore the only way to reduce a is by reducing b.

Futhermore the actions of today are only shown in the numbers a couple of weeks down the line. So you there is no way of keeping the NHS "just below the overload level". Its not an exact science and they will err on the side of caution...probably.

Not saying I agree with all these lockdowns. But its the simplest way to keep infections and hospital cases down if thats their intention.


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## tom73 (20 Sep 2020)

Just what is just under "overload level" ? Is it including or excluding normal day to day operational level ? 
Is that just based on number of beds or the wider much bigger part of NHS ie primary care ? 
Is it including the ongoing longer term care needs of the most serious cases who survive? 
Is it just beds , space for beds , equipment ect or are staff numbers counted too? 
Maybe the way out of this is for ones who simply don't want to understand or wont comply with what's being asked. Should be the ones that stay home and ones who do understand do know the only way to open things up is to follow a few simple things. Be the ones allowed to get on things.


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## classic33 (20 Sep 2020)

With no pubs open there'll be no need for many to go out. Drink(alcoholic), was bottom of the list for restocking on the shelves the first time round, and I doubt it'd even reach the shelves in a second lockdown.


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## tom73 (20 Sep 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ts-in-management-consultants?CMP=share_btn_tw
Test and trace must really be in trouble they are now bringing in management consultants. What next a rebrand ? 
Contact tracing is a public heath matter they need to bring in highly trained health professionals and experienced healthcare management. 
If it's logistics they need fixing then get the Army in they know how to shift stuff around and can do it quickly. 
Fines won't fix this public confidence will though.


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## tom73 (20 Sep 2020)

Your ability to get a test now based on your ability to pay. 
https://www.theguardian.com/educati...e-private-sector?CMP=twt_a-education_b-gdnedu


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## SkipdiverJohn (20 Sep 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> But they dont know which infections will result in hospitalisations. So how do you achieve that? In my mind hospitalisations (a) make a given percentage of total infections (b). Therefore the only way to reduce a is by reducing b.



You don't need to know about *any* infections that don't result in hospitalisation, because those infected persons can look after themselves. Say you've got the capacity to have 25,000 virus patients in hospital at any given time without the system falling over. Instead of obsessing over how many positive tests there were yesterday, you just count the number of hospitalisations daily and monitor how much spare capacity you have left in the system. If the numbers get to the point where they are only a few days away from overload, then you bring in measures to minimise person-to-person contact for a short fixed period, say a week. That way, everyone knows they will only have to put up with a week's disruption, then things would be back to normal. With a clearly defined end date, you would get more public "buy in" and better compliance. Open-ended lockdown measures where politicians keep pushing the dates back because some medic says x number might die simply generate a "bollox to this" response, and the rules get flouted.



tom73 said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ts-in-management-consultants?CMP=share_btn_tw
> Test and trace must really be in trouble they are now bringing in management consultants.



Management consultants spell the kiss of death for pretty much any operation, IMHO. To use them is an admission the current management don't know what the feck they are doing, otherwise they wouldn't use them, and in all likelihood the consultants are just going to focus on processes and procedures without having much understanding of the actual operation anyway. The lockdown and the current blunder strategy is a real shoot show, and someone competent to understand and direct things to get done ASAP should have been in post, NOT Hancock - who gives me a very good impression of being a BS artist trying to wing it, but well out of his depth.
The thing is, if you want a get-the-job done sort of Health Secretary, who do you appoint? You need someone with some gravitas, and the ability to bang heads together, as well as being pragmatic and not too ideological.
One thing I will say about the NHS and military, is they tend to comprise of people who actually want to be there and have some pride in their work. So why not use public resources instead of employing disinterested private sector outsource wage drones who probably don't see it as any different to administering someone's council tax bill?


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## HMS_Dave (20 Sep 2020)

Why do people keep mentioning Sweden as a glowing example of covid management when Malaysia have been far more successful? They got on top of track and trace, testing and locked down sensibly and have 3 times more people than Sweden in a hot and humid climate yet about 2-3% of the deaths!. Sweden have a terrible record compared to their neighbour's also...


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## DaveReading (20 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If the numbers get to the point where they are only a few days away from overload, then you bring in measures to minimise person-to-person contact for a short fixed period, say a week.



There are no measures you can take that will have any affect on the numbers in the short-term. 

Any measures you implement now will take several weeks before they have any impact on the infection rate.


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## classic33 (20 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You don't need to know about *any* infections that don't result in hospitalisation, because those infected persons can look after themselves. Say you've got the capacity to have 25,000 virus patients in hospital at any given time without the system falling over. Instead of obsessing over how many positive tests there were yesterday, you just count the number of hospitalisations daily and monitor how much spare capacity you have left in the system. *If the numbers get to the point where they are only a few days away from overload, then you bring in measures to minimise person-to-person contact for a short fixed period, say a week. *That way, everyone knows they will only have to put up with a week's disruption, then things would be back to normal. With a clearly defined end date, you would get more public "buy in" and better compliance. Open-ended lockdown measures where politicians keep pushing the dates back because some medic says x number might die simply generate a "bollox to this" response, and the rules get flouted.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Suppose the figure doesn't go down, and you were planning on going out at the end of that week. You're instantly back to another week before you can go out. 

Get used to the fact that whatever comes after this, the old way has gone to be replaced by a new normal. One you may not like.


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## SkipdiverJohn (20 Sep 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> Why do people keep mentioning Sweden as a glowing example of covid management when Malaysia have been far more successful? They got on top of track and trace, testing and locked down sensibly and have 3 times more people than Sweden in a hot and humid climate yet about 2-3% of the deaths!. Sweden have a terrible record compared to their neighbour's also...



Because Sweden is in all probability, now at the tail end of it's pandemic, and is unlikely to see any further major waves of disease. They will have a far higher immunity rate than those countries that tried to keep the infected numbers as low as possible. All the countries that are cited to have been "successful" have achieved is to kick the can down the road and delay the inevitable. Their populations are still highly vulnerable to a tidal wave of infection. The countries that took only some, but not extreme measures to keep the numbers down are now faring better because the virus simply cannot transmit effectively once a substantial proportion of the population have already had it. If you take the USA for example, with nearly 7 million officially recorded cases, that will be a gross undercount of the real numbers. Quite possibly the true infection rate could have been 20 times higher, in which case you might now have 130 million immune citizens out of a 330 million population.


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## RoadRider400 (20 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If the numbers get to the point where they are only a few days away from overload, then you bring in measures to minimise person-to-person contact for a short fixed period, say a week.


Firstly such measures will take weeks to have any impact.
Secondly you cannot spring measures on the public so quickly. There needs to be a reasonable notice period.
Thirdly due to exponential growth by the time you have realised you are a few days from overload, its much much too late to recover the situation.

Given that all the responses your comments have received have been along the same lines. Has the penny not dropped yet?


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## classic33 (20 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Because Sweden is in all probability, now at the tail end of it's pandemic, and is unlikely to see any further major waves of disease. They will have a far higher immunity rate than those countries that tried to keep the infected numbers as low as possible. All the countries that are cited to have been "successful" have achieved is to kick the can down the road and delay the inevitable. Their populations are still highly vulnerable to a tidal wave of infection. The countries that took only some, but not extreme measures to keep the numbers down are now faring better because the virus simply cannot transmit effectively once a substantial proportion of the population have already had it. If you take the USA for example, with nearly 7 million officially recorded cases, that will be a gross undercount of the real numbers. Quite possibly the true infection rate could have been 20 times higher, in which case you might now have 130 million immune citizens out of a 330 million population.


No evidence to date that you can't catch it twice, meaning you don't know that you will ever be immune from it.

An extreme case, but think of Typhoid Mary. Never showed any signs of the disease, but still managed to pass it on.


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## marinyork (20 Sep 2020)

It's unlikely 40% of the US population has had the virus based on what is currently known. If the small swedish study is correct about t cell immunity then that would mean around twice as many people have had it as what is thought.


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## screenman (20 Sep 2020)

Is everyone giving the correct contact details when asked, I do but I know of some who will not.


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## marinyork (20 Sep 2020)

screenman said:


> Is everyone giving the correct contact details when asked, I do but I know of some who will not.



Probably not. Someone I know who's a contact tracer made 8 calls this weekend and none were picked up/correct numbers.


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## screenman (20 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Probably not. Someone I know who's a contact tracer made 8 calls this weekend and none were picked up/correct numbers.



Id cards needed then


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## HMS_Dave (20 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Because Sweden is in all probability, now at the tail end of it's pandemic, and is unlikely to see any further major waves of disease. They will have a far higher immunity rate than those countries that tried to keep the infected numbers as low as possible. All the countries that are cited to have been "successful" have achieved is to kick the can down the road and delay the inevitable. Their populations are still highly vulnerable to a tidal wave of infection. The countries that took only some, but not extreme measures to keep the numbers down are now faring better because the virus simply cannot transmit effectively once a substantial proportion of the population have already had it. If you take the USA for example, with nearly 7 million officially recorded cases, that will be a gross undercount of the real numbers. Quite possibly the true infection rate could have been 20 times higher, in which case you might now have 130 million immune citizens out of a 330 million population.


Yes, but at a high cost. Malaysia has been in it longer than we have. They never really had a spike at all. They have around 130 deaths. They never gambled with thousands of lives, and Sweden MAY have hit herd immunity, but predictably is likely to gamble with thousands of more lives i suppose. Meaningless statistics when you don't know the people...

Oh and here, https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/rip-rich-rowe-ywbm/backers#start This fella in his early 30's was a victim of the virus. Early 30's. He worked with my mate... I know the Daily Mail are hitting this hard about it only killing people who are already on their death beds, but that isn't the full story, predictably...

We have been shown there is another way that keeps people alive and keeps the economy largely open. But of course, lets just carry on with Matt Hancock and Dido Harding's pathetic excuses...


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## marinyork (20 Sep 2020)

screenman said:


> Id cards needed then



The app is coming in this week.

8 calls is a shock. I think it was 2 persons in 3 months originally and then that many per week and yesterday a lot more.


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## roubaixtuesday (20 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Because Sweden is in all probability, now at the tail end of it's pandemic, and is unlikely to see any further major waves of disease. They will have a far higher immunity rate than those countries that tried to keep the infected numbers as low as possible.



This is obvious nonsense. 

There have been more deaths and cases here than Sweden. 

Yet we're entering a second wave. 

Our immunity rate must be higher than Sweden's. 

Sweden has less immunity protection from a second wave than we do.


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## roubaixtuesday (20 Sep 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> I know the Daily Mail are hitting this hard about it only killing people who are already on their death beds, but that isn't the full story, predictably...



Indeed. The average loss of years of life from each covid death is ~10.


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## roubaixtuesday (20 Sep 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> Why do people keep mentioning Sweden as a glowing example of covid management



Because it allows them to believe in a story of what they wish to be true, rather than face reality.


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## AuroraSaab (20 Sep 2020)

I don't think there is much to be gained from comparing dissimilar countries, whether Sweden or NZ, to the UK. They have populations of 6 million, in much bigger areas, and their cities are much smaller. Sweden has 50% of households that are single person households. Both have fewer multigenerational households. 

They have the population of Yorkshire spread over a vast area, with isolated communities that can be more easily locked down. By comparison, 5 million people normally use the London Tube everyday.


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## steve292 (20 Sep 2020)

I think as well some people are convienently ignoring the fact that the Scandinavian countries also have a social care system in place that is effective, and efficent and hasn't been hollowed out by ten years or more of ideology driven austerity.


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## midlife (20 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This is obvious nonsense.
> 
> There have been more deaths and cases here than Sweden.
> 
> ...



I think Stockholm and London have about the same infection rate. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...kholm-and-london-study-shows-2020-8?r=US&IR=T


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## roubaixtuesday (20 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> I think Stockholm and London have about the same infection rate.
> 
> https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...kholm-and-london-study-shows-2020-8?r=US&IR=T



You'll note that I referred to countries, not cities or regions.


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## mjr (20 Sep 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/TheBrexitComic/status/1306651479995027456


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## Wobblers (20 Sep 2020)

DaveReading said:


> You need to qualify that prediction to take account of the fact that the percentage of infections that result in death is markedly less than it was six months ago.



No. I don't. There were an average of 2 deaths per day at the start of August. Now it is above 20. Following this doubling every eight days means it will be above 60/day by the end of the month. This, note, is independent of treatment success, as it's already in the data. We're already seeing a sharp rise in deaths.

It's important to understand the consequences of this exponential growth rate in infections we're experiencing. If this continues, we'll be seeing 100,000 infections every day by mid October - and over 300 fatalities. The NHS will be overwhelmed by the start of November.

Furthermore, even if we come up with a new treatment regime that half the fatality rate, that advance will be reversed in only eight days. And the best treatment yet found, using steroids, only saw a 30% improvement. Hoping that some magic course of treatment will be the solution is not a viable strategy. Getting the R value to below one is.


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## rualexander (21 Sep 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> I don't think there is much to be gained from comparing dissimilar countries, whether Sweden or NZ, to the UK. They have populations of 6 million, in much bigger areas, and their cities are much smaller. Sweden has 50% of households that are single person households. Both have fewer multigenerational households.
> 
> They have the population of Yorkshire spread over a vast area, with isolated communities that can be more easily locked down. By comparison, 5 million people normally use the London Tube everyday.


Sweden has a population of 10 million.


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## Wobblers (21 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> For sure, but it's a reasonable topic to discuss here, no?
> No country other than NZ with its unique geographical position has stamped out the virus. Every country is working towards an "optimal" balance between opening up society and economy and Covid deaths. I'm just interested to hear where folk think that optimal number is
> Fwiw I think it's more than we are experiencing now but less than the 1000/day we did experience. Probably North of 100. It's a difficult topic but this question must be central to every country's response, although few governments would admit it



It's not a straightforward issue. For instance, 100 deaths/day also comes with _at least_ 100 people/day left with long term , possibly permanent disabilities. They'll require expensive long term treatment. Furthermore, it'll leave something in the region of 1000+ people/day left with long term fatigue (post viral syndrome). They'll need anything between 1 month to 1 year before they can go back to work.

On the other hand, lockdown will result in a damaged economy, lost jobs and likely an increase in mental health problems. Delayed medical treatment will cost lives, and a shrunken economy will only support a shrunken NHS - that'll cost further lives. No one knows what the best balance between locking down the economy and allowing CV19 to spread is to minimise the number of deaths - there's just to many unknowns to be able to guess.

As I said before, lockdown is the bluntest of blunt instruments. We need to avoid its use, if possible. Test, trace and quarantine is the best option: NZ and China have demonstrated that it can be used to suppress virus transmission whilst minimising lockdown. This is why watching the mediocre performance of test & trace here has been so frustrating. We need to do better. |Testing has to be quicker, we need to trace more people and more people have to actually isolate themselves. The fines announced go some way - but it's all stick, and no carrot! £500 to those in low paid jobs and benefits isn't enough. That doesn't make up for lost earnings for most people. We need to pay more, on successful completion of the quarantine period. Expensive perhaps, but rather less so than lockdown.


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## RoadRider400 (21 Sep 2020)

McWobble said:


> Furthermore, even if we come up with a new treatment regime that half the fatality rate, that advance will be reversed in only eight days. And the best treatment yet found, using steroids, only saw a 30% improvement. Hoping that some magic course of treatment will be the solution is not a viable strategy. Getting the R value to below one is.



Plus if you have new treatments and can prevent some of the deaths. You are likely going to be increasing the number of people in hospital. Anybody near death who pulls through will probably need a reasonable stint recovering in a bed.


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## tom73 (21 Sep 2020)

The government has slowly washed it's hands of any part of the virus response. They only had PHE the only part of NHS in direct control of government left. So Replaced it with the Dido horror show. Now as the brown stuff starts to hit the fan. They can't face us and expect a HCP and a scientist to take the flack for government failings. All ready for "they told us you can't have Christmas" 
If trust is not rebuilt quick we've totally lost any hope of holding back this virus and yet more personal and economic damage. Sadly it's looking like the stable door is not just open but has fell off. It's a public health emergency and won't go away by magic. This stuff matters people's lives matter.


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## Johnno260 (21 Sep 2020)

Some of my relatives went to the protests over the weekend in London, I have had particular issues with one as they're a staunch anti vaxer, who keeps telling my mother with mental health issues to stop taking her depression and anxity meds.

When they start saying about vaccines being full of trackers it makes me see red, they can't see the irony of using an smart device, or even google if you believe in such things.

I told my relative so it's a false virus to inject us with a false vaccine? when they reply was yes I said if this was the plan why so long and convoluted just put the trackers in the drinking water! I also said if all the people in London protesting think the virus is fake, then please waive all rights for treatment if they contract it.


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## fossyant (21 Sep 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Some of my relatives went to the protests over the weekend in London, I have had particular issues with one as they're a staunch anti vaxer, who keeps telling my mother with mental health issues to stop taking her depression and anxity meds.
> 
> When they start saying about vaccines being full of trackers it makes me see red, they can't see the irony of using an smart device, or even google if you believe in such things.
> 
> I told my relative so it's a false virus to inject us with a false vaccine? when they reply was yes I said if this was the plan why so long and convoluted just put the trackers in the drinking water! I also said if all the people in London protesting think the virus is fake, then please waive all rights for treatment if they contract it.



What do you do when it's a relative that is so out touch ? I'm sure they'd want the medical attention if they get a health condition in later life.

Having been majorly caught out at the start of the lock down, we have got a month's supply of cat food at the weekend as it was significantly cheaper to buy in bulk, one spare pack of loo rolls, and one shopping bag full of none perishables (tins of soup, spaghetti etc, and some flour). There is enough food to manage a couple of weeks

It wasn't funny having to go out daily to find cat food (the buggers will only eat one type) without paying £16 a pack - I paid £10 with 4 extra packets.


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## Stephenite (21 Sep 2020)

HMS_Dave said:


> Why do people keep mentioning Sweden as a glowing example of covid management when Malaysia have been far more successful? They got on top of track and trace, testing and locked down sensibly and have 3 times more people than Sweden in a hot and humid climate yet about 2-3% of the deaths!. *Sweden have a terrible record compared to their neighbour's also...*


They most certainly do.

Translation: Key Figures For The Nordics. Totals as of today for accumulative deaths, present hospital admissions, present intensive care, and accumulative infections.


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## Johnno260 (21 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> What do you do when it's a relative that is so out touch ? I'm sure they'd want the medical attention if they get a health condition in later life.
> 
> Having been majorly caught out at the start of the lock down, we have got a month's supply of cat food at the weekend as it was significantly cheaper to buy in bulk, one spare pack of loo rolls, and one shopping bag full of none perishables (tins of soup, spaghetti etc, and some flour). There is enough food to manage a couple of weeks
> 
> It wasn't funny having to go out daily to find cat food (the buggers will only eat one type) without paying £16 a pack - I paid £10 with 4 extra packets.



My relative is telling my mother to stop taking her meds that are keeping her on the straight and narrow at the moment. we can address the underlying issues when things are more normal.

It's the same relative taking part in protests and breaking social distancing regulations, then visiting other relatives, for example she visits my mother who is being investigated for COPD, if these people want to meet and potentially spread the virus then please have the decency to not visit people who have serious health issues.

The relative is my aunt, she spouts every conspiracy theory ever been uttered it's not helping or constructive, she believes the whole thing is a fake scam by all the major governments in the world, like I said if all these people think it's fake then they should waive all treatment.


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## fossyant (21 Sep 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> The relative is my aunt, she spouts every conspiracy theory ever been uttered it's not helping or constructive, she believes the whole thing is a fake scam by all the major governments in the world, like I said if all these people think it's fake then they should waive all treatment.



Blimey, so she's not seen the very poorly people in hospital ? She shouldn't be seeing your mum with COPD. We can't go near MIL as she has a long list.


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## Johnno260 (21 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Blimey, so she's not seen the very poorly people in hospital ? She shouldn't be seeing your mum with COPD. We can't go near MIL as she has a long list.



She hasn't been diagnosed yet but she is under investigation for it, she has smoked since 11 so chances are she has it.

My aunt basically has said the NHS staff who agree with Covid are paid actors she really has gone off the deep end, and visits my mother as she doesn't believe in the virus, when she told my mother to stop taking meds I asked my aunt when she had passed her exams to be a GP, a flippant comment sure but it had a point to it.

People can believe what they want, it's when they put others at risk that I have issues with.

The other thing to please bear in mind, we have seen super market delivery slots getting rare again, please plan in advance if you like to get you weekly shop delivered.

Also on the cat food, check Amazon they have a good selection.


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## fossyant (21 Sep 2020)

Matt Hancock telling fibs on This Morning - early Nursing Home deaths because of asymptomatic cases - no, you were sending positive patients, and those without tests, back into care homes.


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## Joey Shabadoo (21 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Matt Hancock telling fibs on Thsi Morning - early Nursing Home deaths because of asymptomatic cases - no, you were sending positive patients, and those without tests, back into care homes.


My opinion - they were expecting apocalyptic levels of cases hence the building of emergency hospitals and the clearing of the decks in existing hospitals. Again, my opinion only, the elderly and infirm were seen as not worth saving in the grim triage of a pandemic. This wasn't a political decision per se, it's part of emergency planning procedures.


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## fossyant (21 Sep 2020)

Live announcement now


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## Edwardoka (21 Sep 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> My relative is telling my mother to stop taking her meds that are keeping her on the straight and narrow at the moment. we can address the underlying issues when things are more normal.
> 
> It's the same relative taking part in protests and breaking social distancing regulations, then visiting other relatives, for example she visits my mother who is being investigated for COPD, if these people want to meet and potentially spread the virus then please have the decency to not visit people who have serious health issues.
> 
> The relative is my aunt, she spouts every conspiracy theory ever been uttered it's not helping or constructive, she believes the whole thing is a fake scam by all the major governments in the world, like I said if all these people think it's fake then they should waive all treatment.


Unfortunately once someone goes down that particular rabbit hole it is incredibly difficult to bring them back to reality.

The best you can do is to advise your mum to cut contact with her - as a minimum, all face-to-face contact. It will hurt, but your aunt is a menace and is actively endangering those around her. Maybe facing real consequences for repeating mis/disinformation she read on facebook or from crazed opinion trollumnists will give her a wake up call before she hurts someone.

An old friend of mine's mum believed in alternative medicine and a scam product called Miracle Mineral Solution - chlorine dioxide - a form of bleach - as a panacea, years before covid and its associated conspiracy theories came about.

Some of that particular form of derangement rubbed off, with the friend outing themselves as anti-lockdown, anti-mask and anti-not-being-a-selfish-asshat which is why I am no longer in contact with anyone from that family. 

I'm not surprised the bleach hoax has made a resurgeance in recent times.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/19/bleach-miracle-cure-amazon-covid


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## Edwardoka (21 Sep 2020)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-nhs-app-test-trace-contact-b512545.html


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## pawl (21 Sep 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Some of my relatives went to the protests over the weekend in London, I have had particular issues with one as they're a staunch anti vaxer, who keeps telling my mother with mental health issues to stop taking her depression and anxity meds.
> 
> When they start saying about vaccines being full of trackers it makes me see red, they can't see the irony of using an smart device, or even google if you believe in such things.
> 
> I told my relative so it's a false virus to inject us with a false vaccine? when they reply was yes I said if this was the plan why so long and convoluted just put the trackers in the drinking water! I also said if all the people in London protesting think the virus is fake, then please waive all rights for treatment if they contract it.





I was reading about a nurse who had exactly the same opinions She has been struck off the nursing register

Has quite a following apparently.of which I am not one .Does she not realise Corona Virus is noon hoax or a government plot to control are minds.I suppose in her opinion the deaths are all propaganda


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## stowie (21 Sep 2020)

My daughter got a COVID test today. Over the weekend she got a sore throat, high temperature and is now coughing a lot. Almost certainly just a cold picked up from a couple of weeks back at school - every new term there is some cold/flu doing the rounds, especially after so long on holiday.

School won't let her back in for at least 2 weeks unless she has a COVID test which is negative.

So, I tried to book online. All busy. There is a walk-in centre close to me, but rumour has it that it isn't walk in but needs an appointment. Since the website simply isn't responding by now, I phone 119. Go through a forest of menu options. Talk to a human. Ask if the local COVID centre allows walk in or appointment only. She says she isn't allowed to say. That I need to book online. I say that the website says it is "busy" and to contact 119, which is where I am now. I ask her if she is familiar with the works of Franz Kafka.

We go to the centre anyway. No walk-ins allowed. We explain the situation. We stand around hopefully. We get let in because the system is farked and they feel sorry for us. Virtually no-one is using it. We do the test and leave hearing a couple of other people recounting similar stories to us.

One thing I did learn was that you could book an appointment anywhere in the UK and turn up at your local test centre. As long as you have the mystical QR code in your possession then all is good. A friend confirmed this - she booked up for Aberdeen (we are in London) and just rocked up to her local centre. No problems.

So there we have it. A system utterly farked. Apparently testing demand has shot through the roof since it transpired there was a shortage of tests - the bog roll crisis except with test-tubes and swabs. And, of course, with schools going back all viruses are back in circulation. Apparently there are many children off school from my daughters class all with similar symptons. And all trying to get COVID tested. I mean, it hardly takes Nostradamus to work out that millions of children going back to school may end up with a lot of suspected symptoms does it?


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## Tanis8472 (21 Sep 2020)

You mention toilet rolls.
There has been an increase in sales at work


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## fossyant (21 Sep 2020)

I've heard of the magical QR code also...


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## classic33 (21 Sep 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> You mention toilet rolls.
> There has been an increase in sales at work


You trying to start a run on the market?


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## tom73 (21 Sep 2020)

Around 10 days ago my mate contacted me his dad was not well he thought it was covid. He's got COPD and his wife was worried as was my mate. My mate is isolating due to covid at his step sons school. His dad worships Mrs 73 and trusts her so she called round and checked him over outside in the garden in full PPE. Mrs 73 thinks it is covid but mild case given his medical history she's been keeping an eye on him and he's been updating her with his o2 sats It's all been recoded ready for his GP. He and his wife tried for 5 days for a test and nothing. They can afford to isolate are happy to do the right to do the right thing so have done it anyway. They have not had close contact with anyone for days before so no-one to trace. I've just called round with some meds and shopping and all being well. They are all clear in a few days.

The point is they can afford to do it, they are able to get advice, have someone who can keep an eye on them. They are not a risk to anyone.
Now many can't afford it, can't make themselves heard and keep pushing for a test, or don’t have someone who can help. If the only way to get state money to isolate is going to be if you have a test. How can you if you can't get into the system ? Not to mention some may need contact tracing done. Equally many more may not even bother to do anything and use can't get a test as grounds to carry on.


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## slowmotion (21 Sep 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> You mention toilet rolls.
> There has been an increase in sales at work


A national shortage ( or glut ) of bog rolls is probably a reasonable indicator of how seriously the citizens are taking the pandemic.


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## fossyant (21 Sep 2020)

I've bought an extra 24 rolls to keep in the garage as we struggled to get any last time. Did not get a trolly full, just one packet.


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## midlife (21 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> My daughter got a COVID test today. Over the weekend she got a sore throat, high temperature and is now coughing a lot. Almost certainly just a cold picked up from a couple of weeks back at school - every new term there is some cold/flu doing the rounds, especially after so long on holiday.
> 
> School won't let her back in for at least 2 weeks unless she has a COVID test which is negative.
> 
> ...



Son had a bad cough and temp of 38 so off school today, booked test online and had one at a walk in centre next to the castle here in Carlisle a few hours later . Test centre quiet apparently. 

I was sent home from work until the test comes back negative otherwise 2 weeks isolation without a test being done same for school. Not sure if it's sick leave, annual leave, unpaid leave... Was just told to go home and isolate. 

All worked as it should. Only thing we did was say we had no transport so in theory couldn't be sent miles away for a test. 

With a reported infection rate of 6 per 100,000 last time I looked hopefully negative. They say test should be back within 72 hours.

I think we were lucky for some reason with getting a test so soon.


----------



## tom73 (21 Sep 2020)

Remember the virus alert level ? 
They've now changed the bulb and it’s been set to level 4 for what good it is means transmission is high or rising exponentially.


----------



## stowie (21 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Remember the virus alert level ?
> They've now changed the bulb and it’s been set to level 4 for what good it is means transmission is high or rising exponentially.


----------



## stowie (21 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Son had a bad cough and temp of 38 so off school today, booked test online and had one at a walk in centre next to the castle here in Carlisle a few hours later . Test centre quiet apparently.
> 
> I was sent home from work until the test comes back negative otherwise 2 weeks isolation without a test being done same for school. Not sure if it's sick leave, annual leave, unpaid leave... Was just told to go home and isolate.
> 
> ...



The test itself was fine. And seeing as it was a huge tent of at least 20 stations with only two being used, plenty of people standing around to help if needed. It is the booking system that is chaos. Apparently it is best to book using a postcode in a remote location and to do it late at night. 

I think these tests from school children will be generally negative. The school turns into a petri dish for colds and coughs during the first couple of weeks - I find my daughter gets a cold for about a day, my wife then suffers from a cold for a couple of days and by the time it reaches me it seems to have mutated to full-on plague which floors me for at least a week. Either that or I am a total wimp when it comes to illness....

Apart from a hacking cough, my daughter seems fighting fit. She is using the time to perfect an "Ollie" on the skateboard in the back garden. I think she is hoping that the test is delayed by a day or so which will allow her to get a "shuvit" under the belt as well. At least she isn't wasting her time....


----------



## midlife (21 Sep 2020)

I think that kids will not be a priority for testing according to Hancock. I wonder if that means 2 weeks isolation for families if kids have symptoms?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> I've bought an extra 24 rolls



FFS


----------



## Ming the Merciless (21 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> I've bought an extra 24 rolls to keep in the garage as we struggled to get any last time. Did not get a trolly full, just one packet.



How long does a roll last you?


----------



## Tanis8472 (21 Sep 2020)

I don't have kids but could still end up solating thanks to mrs working with vulnerable kids. Problem is we can't afford to be off for a combined month.


----------



## stowie (21 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> I think that kids will not be a priority for testing according to Hancock. I wonder if that means 2 weeks isolation for families if kids have symptoms?



Yes. If my daughter doesn't get a test she is not allowed back for 2 weeks. And since she has suspected symptoms that means that the family need to isolate as well from what I understand.


----------



## DCLane (21 Sep 2020)

Son's school has 2 confirmed cases in 1400 pupils (Yr 7-13) and their closest students around them have been notified and are isolating and not allowed into school for 14 days.

So at least they're pro-active. I'm not surprised as we've been under restrictions since early August.


----------



## Julia9054 (21 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> Son's school has 2 confirmed cases in 1400 pupils (Yr 7-13) and their closest students around them have been notified and are isolating and not allowed into school for 14 days.
> 
> So at least they're pro-active. I'm not surprised as we've been under restrictions since early August.


Same in my school, and the school down the road and at least one other large secondary school nearby


----------



## fossyant (21 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> How long does a roll last you?



Probably go through 2 a day in this house at least.


----------



## tom73 (21 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> I think that kids will not be a priority for testing according to Hancock. I wonder if that means 2 weeks isolation for families if kids have symptoms?



Not sure he see's many as priority after formally setting out rationing list for testing. 
In ranking order this is how tests will be prioritised:

NHS hospital patients, including all new inpatient admissions 
Care home staff (weekly) and residents (monthly and on admission)
NHS staff
Surveillance studies to collect data, and targeted testing at high-risk environments
Teachers who have symptoms 
Members of the public with symptoms in areas with high infection rates
Members of the public with symptoms in other areas
Care givers look to be forgotten as are hospice staff. No word on husbands , wife's or partners of the care and NHS staff. Take it we are at the bottom too. So how many staff will that take out of the work force as they have to wait for them to get a test?


----------



## midlife (21 Sep 2020)

NHS staff with symptoms are usually tested via the hospital testing system through occupational health. They don't have to book an appointment so not sure how Mr Hancock can influence that?


----------



## mjr (21 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Having been majorly caught out at the start of the lock down, we have got a month's supply of cat food at the weekend as it was significantly cheaper to buy in bulk, one spare pack of loo rolls, and one shopping bag full of none perishables (tins of soup, spaghetti etc, and some flour). There is enough food to manage a couple of weeks


I was all ready to grumble at you for starting the panic buying surge off, but "enough food to manage a couple of weeks" is actually what we all should probably have in unless we've got dependable friends or relatives nearby who would shop for us, given that we're meant to quarantine for at least a couple of weeks if we catch this thing.


----------



## mjr (21 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> There is a walk-in centre close to me, but rumour has it that it isn't walk in but needs an appointment.


It is walk-in, but that's as opposed to drive-through which is the other main type of public test centre. It's shoot naming. It probably should have been called walk-through.

The rest of what you write is similar to what I read from friends and fakebook.


----------



## tom73 (21 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> NHS staff with symptoms are usually tested via the hospital testing system through occupational health. They don't have to book an appointment so not sure how Mr Hancock can influence that?


No i'm not either think it's playing to gallery though primary care are not able to access hospital test system. Mrs 73 can't she was told she had to book a test like everyone else.


----------



## mjr (21 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Remember the virus alert level ?
> They've now changed the bulb and it’s been set to level 4 for what good it is means transmission is high or rising exponentially.


I thought 1 was the highest alert level. It certainly is for DEFCON. DEFCON 2 is Cuban Missile Crisis level stuff. DEFCON 1 means the nukes have launched and we're all about to die.

In other words: have Dom and Boris even got the farking alert levels upside down?


----------



## mjr (21 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> I think these tests from school children will be generally negative. The school turns into a petri dish for colds and coughs during the first couple of weeks


I wonder if the number of school-transmitted colds and coughs are down this year due to the extra precautions, or not.


----------



## Archie_tect (21 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> I thought 1 was the highest alert level. It certainly is for DEFCON. DEFCON 2 is Cuban Missile Crisis level stuff. DEFCON 1 means the nukes have launched and we're all about to die.
> 
> In other words: have Dom and Boris even got the farking alert levels upside down?


Don't let Hancock anywhere near a flashing red button.


----------



## Johnno260 (21 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> My daughter got a COVID test today. Over the weekend she got a sore throat, high temperature and is now coughing a lot. Almost certainly just a cold picked up from a couple of weeks back at school - every new term there is some cold/flu doing the rounds, especially after so long on holiday.
> 
> School won't let her back in for at least 2 weeks unless she has a COVID test which is negative.
> 
> ...



We were told the website refreshes after 8pm and 8am it worked for us booking a test for a child.

Sorry saw you got one now, hopefully the above may help others.


----------



## Johnno260 (21 Sep 2020)

pawl said:


> I was reading about a nurse who had exactly the same opinions She has been struck off the nursing register
> 
> Has quite a following apparently.of which I am not one .Does she not realise Corona Virus is noon hoax or a government plot to control are minds.I suppose in her opinion the deaths are all propaganda



She thinks it’s all a hoax, I told her stay away from my wife as she is a nurse and not impressed with my Aunts thoughts.

I disabled FB due to the sheer amount of total no nonsense on it, the conspiracy nuts are out in force.


----------



## Julia9054 (21 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> I wonder if the number of school-transmitted colds and coughs are down this year due to the extra precautions, or not.


Not if the classes I have taught today are anything to go by


----------



## tom73 (21 Sep 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Don't let Hancock anywhere near a flashing red button.


No fear of that he'd outsource the pushing of the button.


----------



## classic33 (21 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> I thought 1 was the highest alert level. It certainly is for DEFCON. DEFCON 2 is Cuban Missile Crisis level stuff. DEFCON 1 means the nukes have launched and we're all about to die.
> 
> In other words: have Dom and Boris even got the farking alert levels upside down?


DEFCON 2, Defense Condition 2 is American. We don't use it.


----------



## tom73 (21 Sep 2020)

Yet another late night Boris covid message. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54242634
Pubs, restaurants to close from 10 pm and table service only.


----------



## Edwardoka (21 Sep 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> ... to come into effect on Friday.




View: https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1308156590198083584


I WAS JOKING YOU BLOODY IMBECILES

Edit: It appears in my haste to excoriate this cretinous government for repeating the mistakes of March step for step I failed at reading comprehension. Instead of announcing a lockdown 3 days in advance, the extent of their measures are... to close the pubs an hour early.


----------



## classic33 (21 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yet another late night Boris covid message.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54242634
> Pubs, restaurants to close from 10 pm and table service only.


That was in the local paper last Thursday.


----------



## midlife (21 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> No i'm not either think it's playing to gallery though primary care are not able to access hospital test system. Mrs 73 can't she was told she had to book a test like everyone else.



Our occupational health have been quite clear.... staff with symptoms go through the hospital testing system. If we are contacted by track and trace we isolate but contact occupational health and they decide if we need testing to clear us for work. 

Having had an outbreak a few weeks ago staff were tested weekly. Not sure if local GP's etc can use the hospital testing system though.

Bit of a minefield for NHS staff!


----------



## Johnno260 (21 Sep 2020)

I keep hearing why don’t they close more, and faster, but I think that may cause more issues, with regards to people protesting.


----------



## tom73 (21 Sep 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> View: https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1308156590198083584
> 
> 
> I WAS JOKING YOU BLOODY IMBECILES
> ...




No 10 believe a narrow widow take it that‘s No 10 the epidemiologist.


----------



## mjr (21 Sep 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I keep hearing why don’t they close more, and faster, but I think that may cause more issues, with regards to people protesting.


No, protesting is still allowed as long as they have completed a risk assessment and the protest is backed by a charitable organisation.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Sep 2020)

10pm closing for pubs and the screeching from the industry and on social media has started. I seem to remember pubs used to have to close at 10.30 - however did people manage?


----------



## marinyork (22 Sep 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> 10pm closing for pubs and the screeching from the industry and on social media has started. I seem to remember pubs used to have to close at 10.30 - however did people manage?



Most of the pubs around here seem to be closed at 10pm anyway. Some earlier.

I did find a few that had a midnight or 1am licence on a friday or weekend.


----------



## DCLane (22 Sep 2020)

Some additional pressure on Boris: https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/09/21/covid-19-an-open-letter-to-the-uks-chief-medical-officers

In other works Rishi Sunak's restaurant giveaway last month was foolish.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> In other works Rishi Sunak's restaurant giveaway last month was foolish.



The thankfully brief "stop skiving, save Pret, get Covid" campaign was even worse.


----------



## Adam4868 (22 Sep 2020)

Go out drinking a hour earlier ? To be honest in a place like Blackpool with pubs shutting at 10 pm I don't envy the police in the town centre at 10,30..taxi ranks,take aways etc.


----------



## mjr (22 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Go out drinking a hour earlier ? To be honest in a place like Blackpool with pubs shutting at 10 pm I don't envy the police in the town centre at 10,30..taxi ranks,take aways etc.


Yes, public disorder from a synchronised exodus was a reason for abolishing national closing time. I wonder why Dominic wants public disorder now?


----------



## Archie_tect (22 Sep 2020)

Don't know why people are so keen to congregate in large numbers in pubs or elsewhere... their herding instinct I suppose- not too bright are they?


----------



## mjr (22 Sep 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Don't know why people are so keen to congregate in large numbers in pubs or elsewhere... their herding instinct I suppose- not too bright are they?


Some people aren't as antisocial as inhabitants of a cycling forum 

More seriously, people were being encouraged to "herd" at work by briefings that home workers could be fired first, despite all the evidence that working from home lowers risk, so of course they naturally want to socialise in groups too and think it's OK. Why should it be mainly stuff that makes people happy that gets restricted and not anything that involves payment? Covid ain't scared off by contactless cards!

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Hoping for a coherent and consistent simple set of rules from the PM today - preparing for another load of flinging dung at walls in a random-looking way. Maybe with a catchy soundbite and then 3076 exceptions


----------



## Rezillo (22 Sep 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> 10pm closing for pubs and the screeching from the industry and on social media has started. I seem to remember pubs used to have to close at 10.30 - however did people manage?



For half my life, 10.30pm Monday to Thursday and 11pm Friday to Saturday, or 1am on darts night lock-in at the village pub  It all changed in the 80s.


----------



## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> Some additional pressure on Boris: https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/09/21/covid-19-an-open-letter-to-the-uks-chief-medical-officers
> 
> In other works Rishi Sunak's restaurant giveaway last month was foolish.


He's more interested in the pressure from the backbench than highly qualified professionals. Who unlike him are trained to make clinical decisions. We are now at a point that direct clear clinical decisions are being made by clowns who are totally untrained , unqualified and totally lacking ethics.


----------



## marinyork (22 Sep 2020)

The emphasis from Boris seems to be on enforcement - higher fines and masks basically everywhere except outdoors and private socialising.


----------



## classic33 (22 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Some people aren't as antisocial as inhabitants of a cycling forum
> 
> More seriously, people were being encouraged to "herd" at work by briefings that home workers could be fired first, despite all the evidence that working from home lowers risk, so of course they naturally want to socialise in groups too and think it's OK. *Why should it be mainly stuff that makes people happy that gets restricted and not anything that involves payment? *Covid ain't scared off by contactless cards!
> 
> Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Hoping for a coherent and consistent simple set of rules from the PM today - preparing for another load of flinging dung at walls in a random-looking way. Maybe with a catchy soundbite and then 3076 exceptions


Are you saying that pubs are giving their drinks away, for nowt!

Most I've been in want the payment before the part with the drink.

It will in essence be a return to old closing times, why is that so hard to work with?


----------



## Mo1959 (22 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Are you saying that pubs are giving their drinks away, for nowt!
> 
> Most I've been in want the payment before the part with the drink.
> 
> It will in essence be a return to old closing times, why is that so hard to work with?


Just wondering whether it will actually be worse? Everyone trying to get in early rather than it being more spread out over a longer evening. Got to try I suppose.


----------



## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> The emphasis from Boris seems to be on enforcement - higher fines and masks basically everywhere except outdoors and private socialising.


That's the bottom line fine ones who don't play by the rules and tell the rest off for wanting a test. As they don't believe you need one so no test no case recored = cases down and problem fixed.


----------



## midlife (22 Sep 2020)

I thought he was going to do something more drastic, like a curfew after say 8.00 pm apart from essential workers. Everyone else at home. Not sure much has changed or did I miss something?

Son's swab returned as unclear and new test booked. The pitfalls of swabbing yourself = not getting a sample!


----------



## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

Boris has now moved the focused formally away from testing. On a question about testing he replied by saying it's following the rules that now matters


----------



## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> I thought he was going to do something more drastic, like a curfew after say 8.00 pm apart from essential workers. Everyone else at home. Not sure much has changed or did I miss something?
> 
> Son's swab returned as unclear and new test booked. The pitfalls of swabbing yourself = not getting a sample!


No not missed anything basically it's all our fault and how dare you ask for a test. 
How come his dad did not take the swab for him ? Surely he let you lose with a swab


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Sep 2020)

Rezillo said:


> For half my life, 10.30pm Monday to Thursday and 11pm Friday to Saturday, or 1am on darts night lock-in at the village pub  It all changed in the 80s.


They used to shut 2.30-5pm too, hence the high football crowds in days gone by.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Sep 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> They used to shut 2.30-5pm too, hence the high football crowds in days gone by.


Well, plus the fact that all the matches were at that same time.


----------



## midlife (22 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> No not missed anything basically it's all our fault and how dare you ask for a test.
> How come his dad did not take the swab for him ? Surely he let you lose with a swab



Mum arranged the swab, I was on the A69 having been thrown off my clinic in Newcastle and sent home. Newcastle are a bit twitchy being in some sort of lockdown. I'm going with him today.  

Yep, agree with you, it looks like Boris is getting ready to blame the public, it's all their fault!


----------



## Edwardoka (22 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Yep, agree with you, it looks like Boris is getting ready to blame the public, it's all their fault!


In fairness they did vote him in, so indirectly it is their fault


----------



## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Mum arranged the swab, I was on the A69 having been thrown off my clinic in Newcastle and sent home. Newcastle are a bit twitchy being in some sort of lockdown. I'm going with him today.
> 
> Yep, agree with you, it looks like Boris is getting ready to blame the public, it's all their fault!


Has he any idea how far it's got to go or are you are you playing the old "this wont hurt a bit" number


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Sep 2020)

So, Johnson has just tightened up the rule of 6 by reducing 30 to 15 from Monday. (Funeral attendees.)


----------



## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> So, Johnson has just tightened up the rule of 6 by reducing 30 to 15 from Monday. (Funeral attendees.)


No they stay the same so you may not be able to see someone alive but at least you can all get together when this new plan stops working.


----------



## mjr (22 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Are you saying that pubs are giving their drinks away, for nowt!
> 
> Most I've been in want the payment before the part with the drink.


I wrote "mainly" 



> It will in essence be a return to old closing times, why is that so hard to work with?


Well, why did we stop doing that?

"The Alcohol and Entertainment Licensing Bill will encourage a more civilised culture in pubs, bars and restaurants and increase choice for consumers. It will be based on clear objectives—preventing crime; reducing disorder and public nuisance; ensuring public safety; and protecting children from harm. [...] Most widely trailed, there will be potential for 24-hour opening seven days a week to help minimise, not increase, the public disorder which results from artificially early closing." (Tessa Jowell as Culture Minister, introducing the change)

The middle of a pandemic is no time to be failing to learn from history by resurrecting old traditions which were abandoned for very good reasons!


----------



## Adam4868 (22 Sep 2020)

Just waiting for Timmy Martin to tell us pubs are safe...you've got to feel for him a little.All that money he spent supporting Johnson and Brexit and hes treated like the rest of us.


----------



## fossyant (22 Sep 2020)

So weddings down to 15, so what about a wedding at a grouse shoot, unlimited ?


----------



## mjr (22 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Just waiting for Timmy Martin to tell us pubs are safe...you've got to feel for him a little.All that money he spent supporting Johnson and Brexit and hes treated like the rest of us.


Chief exec of Fuller's was on BBC this morning saying that <kevin>it's so unfair</kevin>.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (22 Sep 2020)

Under the latest guidance it seems that I should not go into the office but I may stay all afternoon in the pub with five colleagues.


----------



## fossyant (22 Sep 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Under the latest guidance it seems that I should not go into the office but I may stay all afternoon in the pub with five colleagues.



Sounds like a plan !


----------



## marinyork (22 Sep 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Under the latest guidance it seems that I should not go into the office but I may stay all afternoon in the pub with five colleagues.



Only if you spend lots of money. If not you get kicked out for spreading virus and not spreading economic recovery.


----------



## fossyant (22 Sep 2020)

So, other than Scotland going to no other households, we are still with 6 others (any household - unless in a further lockdown area), should now work from home (in out shake it all about), and get out of the pub by 10pm.  But I'm OK to go grouse hunting with all my pals.


----------



## bitsandbobs (22 Sep 2020)

100 students have now tested +ve at the university in the town I live in.


----------



## raleighnut (22 Sep 2020)

Rezillo said:


> For half my life, 10.30pm Monday to Thursday and 11pm Friday to Saturday, or 1am on darts night lock-in at the village pub  It all changed in the 80s.


I always knew where to get a late drink, you had to be in before closing though, the 'Shoulder Of Mutton' in Dunton Bassett was a good un, I've come out of there when it's been getting light.



Joey Shabadoo said:


> They used to shut 2.30-5pm too, hence the high football crowds in days gone by.



I knew how to get round that too, the 'Four Seasons Motel' in Narborough opened under a Hotel Licence and also had a Restaurant 'Open to non residents', great place to while away a Sunday afternoon.


----------



## fossyant (22 Sep 2020)

TBH, when I was going out for a drink before all this, in Manchester, we'd be on the train home before 10pm - I quite liked a few drinks after work, some food, then back home. We'd be getting the train home, as all the kids were coming into town. Unfortunately, I'm just not bothering with pubs at all now (other than sat outside at our caravan site pub).


----------



## midlife (22 Sep 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> 100 students have now tested +ve at the university in the town I live in.



I'm sure I read that somewhere (NI?) were planning on not letting students go home to keep the virus from spreading.


----------



## bitsandbobs (22 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> I'm sure I read that somewhere (NI?) were planning on not letting students go home to keep the virus from spreading.



There have been rumours here of a campus lock-down.


----------



## mjr (22 Sep 2020)

Belgium Foreign Ministry lifting all "do not travel" advice from Friday. Replaced by testing on arrival in Belgium from a red zone. Also nice items on their news about cycle couriers being the fastest way to get tests to labs and walking being healthy.


----------



## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

This is going well over heard some shop staff already working out how to get round having a wear a face covering at work. 
Some believe that it's ok when on the till as they are behind a plastic screen. As if that magically stops anything.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> No they stay the same so you may not be able to see someone alive but at least you can all get together when this new plan stops working.


Ah yes, it's wedding parties that go down to 15. Funerals stay at 30. Everything's so much simpler under this rule of 6...


----------



## RoadRider400 (22 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> This is going well over heard some *shop staff already working out how to get round having a wear a face covering at work*.
> Some believe that it's ok when on the till as they are behind a plastic screen. As if that magically stops anything.


Cant blame them in the slightest. I dont expect having to wear a mask for 8 hours is the most pleasant experience, nor the most hygenic.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (22 Sep 2020)

Got my home test kit and booked courier for Thursday. You are not meant to do the test until the day the courier is coming. So that gives me time to read the instructions and watch the video. Test needs to be done by 8am on day of collection.

This is part of the wider COVID 19 study NHS / Imperial College are doing. I’ve also signed up so they can follow my health for the next 20 years. I’m always interested in these longer term studies on health, particularly as I age. Results of COVID test will come back within the week.


----------



## pawl (22 Sep 2020)

raleighnut said:


> I always knew where to get a late drink, you had to be in before closing though, the 'Shoulder Of Mutton' in Dunton Bassett was a good un, I've come out of there when it's been getting light.
> 
> 
> 
> I knew how to get round that too, the 'Four Seasons Motel' in Narborough opened under a Hotel Licence and also had a Restaurant 'Open to non residents', great place to while away a Sunday afternoon.




That’s near to me.Never been in Shoulder Of Mutton Used to live just down the road from where I used to live in Broughton Astley Worked at the knitwear factory Turner and Jarvis Surprised to see it is now a housing estate.


----------



## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Cant blame them in the slightest. I dont expect having to wear a mask for 8 hours is the most pleasant experience, nor the most hygenic.


Sorry that one don't cut it with me HCP's and others manage for much longer than that and wearing ones much more uncountable. They also don't have the luxury of air con either.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Got my home test kit and booked courier for Thursday. You are not meant to do the test until the day the courier is coming. So that gives me time to read the instructions and watch the video. Test needs to be done by 8am on day of collection.
> 
> This is part of the wider COVID 19 study NHS / Imperial College are doing. I’ve also signed up so they can follow my health for the next 20 years. I’m always interested in these longer term studies on health, particularly as I age. Results of COVID test will come back within the week.
> 
> View attachment 548585


Let us know whether the waiting time for results is accurate. I've done 3 weekly tests for the ONS survey, was told 8 - 10 day delay, and I still haven't had any back.


----------



## raleighnut (22 Sep 2020)

pawl said:


> That’s near to me.Never been in Shoulder Of Mutton Used to live just down the road from where I used to live in Broughton Astley Worked at the knitwear factory Turner and Jarvis Surprised to see it is now a housing estate.


It's now the 'Dunton Bassett Arms' I think.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Sep 2020)

Happy groundhog day everyone!


View: https://youtu.be/2WT59lu4tCU


----------



## Mo1959 (22 Sep 2020)

So my old neighbours are coming up for a short break next week. Now they can’t pop into the house and sit several feet away from me on the couch, but I can go out for a meal and sit inches away from them at a table. No wonder people are getting fed up and confused.


----------



## Tanis8472 (22 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sorry that one don't cut it with me HCP's and others manage for much longer than that and wearing ones much more uncountable. They also don't have the luxury of air con either.



With my job (and breathing problems, not lungs etc) I really don't want to be wearing a mask for 8 hrs. I get very hot and sweaty so very uncomfortable I don't have close contact with others either.


----------



## classic33 (22 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> I wrote "mainly"
> 
> 
> Well, why did we stop doing that?
> ...


You put _" Why should it be mainly stuff that makes people happy that gets restricted and* not anything that involves payment*?"_ Pubs not taking payment!

If the pubs can't manage to do it, they get made to. Safety of the public comes over profit.

There's no resurrecting old traditions, it's simply a case of they can't manage simple instructions, like taking correct contact details. Or maintaining the agreed distance. All conditions agreed to, before they were allowed to re-open in the first place.


----------



## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> With my job (and breathing problems, not lungs etc) I really don't want to be wearing a mask for 8 hrs. I get very hot and sweaty so very uncomfortable I don't have close contact with others either.


Then you and others need understanding from others. The ones who just either can't be bothered or try and find ways around it are just making it all that harder for ones who really can't. Many of whom have at least tried to wear them.


----------



## MichaelO (22 Sep 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I can go out for a meal and sit inches away from them at a table. No wonder people are getting fed up and confused.


No, you still have to maintain a 1m+ social distance, even when out.


----------



## classic33 (22 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> *Then you and others need understanding from others.* The ones who just either can't be bothered or try and find ways around it are just making it all that harder for ones who really can't. Many of whom have at least tried to wear them.


Easier said than done. Not everything that might make wearing one hard is visible, therefore if you're not wearing one you're at fault. You can even be denied services by not wearing one.

Loose material over the mouth/nose has been chewed before today, and the single use masks are not very tasty.


----------



## classic33 (22 Sep 2020)

MichaelO said:


> No, you still have to maintain a 1m+ social distance, even when out.


But they're unable to do that in her house. Pub or restaurant, but not the home.


----------



## Mo1959 (22 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> But they're unable to do that in her house. Pub or restaurant, but not the home.


When they pop in Bill usually plonks himself on the chair at the other end of room and Margaret at the opposite end of the couch to me so feet apart. If we go for a meal in the place I’m thinking we will go, we will be sitting across from each other at a table barely 3 foot across.......but rules are rules and I will obviously stick to them.


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## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Easier said than done. Not everything that might make wearing one hard is visible, therefore if you're not wearing one you're at fault. You can even be denied services by not wearing one.
> 
> Loose material over the mouth/nose has been chewed before today, and the single use masks are not very tasty.


At least you've tried and good for you. 
Yep we've both IBS and had issues using our radar key as we don't look disabled. Legging it off a tube train and running all over to find a toilet late at night is no fun. Think the problem go's much deeper than current issue and more to do with society intolerance of anyone that's different.


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## Tanis8472 (22 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> At least you've tried and good for you.
> Yep we've both IBS and had issues using our radar key as we don't look disabled. Legging it off a tube train and running all over to find a toilet late at night is no fun. Think the problem go's much deeper than current issue and more to do with society intolerance of anyone that's different.



Same for my Mrs. She has Crohns disease.
People are very intolerant. I see a lot of our customers coming in without 'masks' who I know for a fact have no excuse. I boils my piiss.


----------



## RoadRider400 (22 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sorry that one don't cut it with me HCP's and others manage for much longer than that and wearing ones much more uncountable. They also don't have the luxury of air con either.


Healthcare settings are a different scenario. Plenty of necessary close content.

It it were likely to achieve anything significant then I would be behind masks for shop staff. However supermarkets have remained open throughout the pandemic and this did not prevent the daily cases reducing after the government put us into lockdown. Indeed the cases were reducing significantly before the 24th July mandate for masks for customers.

Other retail opened again mid June and there was not a rapid increase in cases as a result.

I can get behind staff mask requirements for environments where there is lots of natural close contact and speaking. Shops are not one of them. The fact employees in other sectors wear masks all day is neither here nor there. Plus many health care professionals are dealing with at risk people, so clearly they need to wear masks.


----------



## pawl (22 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> You put _" Why should it be mainly stuff that makes people happy that gets restricted and* not anything that involves payment*?"_ Pubs not taking payment!
> 
> If the pubs can't manage to do it, they get made to. Safety of the public comes over profit.
> 
> There's no resurrecting old traditions, it's simply a case of they can't manage simple instructions, like taking correct contact details. Or maintaining the agreed distance. All conditions agreed to, before they were allowed to re-open in the first place.




👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Sep 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/OneRuleForThem_/status/1308483518591381505


----------



## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Healthcare settings are a different scenario. Plenty of necessary close content.
> 
> It it were likely to achieve anything significant then I would be behind masks for shop staff. However supermarkets have remained open throughout the pandemic and this did not prevent the daily cases reducing after the government put us into lockdown. Indeed the cases were reducing significantly before the 24th July mandate for masks for customers.
> 
> ...


Lockdown held numbers down artificially that's the point of them. As more things open up extra measures are needed. You can't unlock without them. The use of face coverings in all enclosed areas with poor ventilation and placers that make social distancing harder are two examples. Shops clearly come into that. Mass face coverings by the public is not about infection prevention as in health care settings. But source control and they work plenty of evidence points to this. Equally they are not about protecting the wearing but protecting others. Though some studies show some benefit to the wearer. 
Given that most cases are from pepole who never show any signs. Everyone is potential danger to others so when in at risk envoments in makes perfect sense to have as many as possible wearing face covering. The delay in the UK using them was wholly a political one equally the delay in formally accepting the virus is airborne transmitted. 
The fact that other water them all day is the point when pepole believe they can't wear them or don't want to wear. Simply because they are not comfortable or practical. Compared to surgical ones cloth ones are more than comfortable for most. Use of face coverings alone won't deal with this but they are part of the solution. 
Other counties know this and just get on with it because they know they work and allow people to get on with life be in different but safe enough for something near normal to be possible. It's high time people here got a grip and masked up.


----------



## Rezillo (22 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> I wrote "mainly"
> 
> 
> Well, why did we stop doing that?
> ...



Except that in many towns, it had exactly the opposite effect to that claimed for the change. In the early 80s, I could wander round Ipswich town centre at night and see only a handful of people. Mrs R and I used to go into Mannings in the Cornhill, where there would be half a dozen old men playing dominoes and drinking pints of mild. The White Horse Hotel had wicker chairs, tables with cloths and a guy in an immaculate three piece suit for table service. The whole atmosphere of the town was peaceful - the busiest pub had folk music. There was one nightclub, frequented by Ipswich Town footballers in an empty 1960s shopping precinct. There were some other clubs but they were not really nightclubs; just a means of obtaining extended drinking hours for their members.

Once the hours were relaxed it changed the entire economic case for town centre pubs. By staying open for longer, they could attract a completely different clientele, namely newly affluent younger people with money to spend. In Ipswich, out went old men playing dominoes and in almost overnight came pub revamps and crowds of drunks until the small hours.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (22 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Let us know whether the waiting time for results is accurate. I've done 3 weekly tests for the ONS survey, was told 8 - 10 day delay, and I still haven't had any back.



Will report back


----------



## bitsandbobs (22 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Belgium Foreign Ministry lifting all "do not travel" advice from Friday. Replaced by testing on arrival in Belgium from a red zone. Also nice items on their news about cycle couriers being the fastest way to get tests to labs and walking being healthy.



Maybe bowing to reality.

I encountered Belgians last weekend in a redzone. They had no good reason for being there and I'd be astonished if they were going to quarantine on return to BE.


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## tom73 (22 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Will report back


Did you just sign up to it or did you get asked ?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (22 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Did you just sign up to it or did you get asked ?



I was picked at random from registered GP patients . So I was asked.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (22 Sep 2020)

My experience of masks here in Spain:

On the flight over (30 or so passengers with a row of seats each mainly) I wore the best quality medical masks I could buy online - KN95? After 4 hours I thought I had a cold because my eyes were streaming, my nose was constantly tickling/running and I was sneezing. I was scared I was going to fail the temperature checks at the airport but I didn't. When I finally got the mask off, the symptoms disappeared within 15 minutes and I was fine. In Spain itself, I switched to the light fabric washable ones but again, after a while I got cold symptoms. The only ones I find bearable here are the blue paper disposable type but even they are uncomfortable in the middle of the day or when walking up steep hills. 

But - a question. Wearing face coverings outdoors is compulsory here and more or less observed, but Spain has horrendous infection rates. Is it a case that masks make little difference outdoors or are they "masking" what would have been otherwise horrific figures?


----------



## Rusty Nails (22 Sep 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> My experience of masks here in Spain:
> 
> On the flight over (30 or so passengers with a row of seats each mainly) I wore the best quality medical masks I could buy online - KN95? After 4 hours I thought I had a cold because my eyes were streaming, my nose was constantly tickling/running and I was sneezing. I was scared I was going to fail the temperature checks at the airport but I didn't. When I finally got the mask off, the symptoms disappeared within 15 minutes and I was fine. In Spain itself, I switched to the light fabric washable ones but again, after a while I got cold symptoms. The only ones I find bearable here are the blue paper disposable type but even they are uncomfortable in the middle of the day or when walking up steep hills.
> 
> But - a question. Wearing face coverings outdoors is compulsory here and more or less observed, but Spain has horrendous infection rates. Is it a case that masks make little difference outdoors or are they "masking" what would have been otherwise horrific figures?



I thought that most scientific opinion is that provided social distancing (1m or 2m?) is adhered to the risks of infection outdoors is minimal.

It is a bit belts and braces, but if the belt works well (masks indoors plus social distancing plus good hygiene) the braces (masks outdoors) are not going to make a huge difference.


----------



## mjr (22 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> You put _" Why should it be mainly stuff that makes people happy that gets restricted and* not anything that involves payment*?"_ Pubs not taking payment!


1. I wrote it as "Why should it be mainly {{stuff that makes people happy that gets restricted} and not {anything that involves payment}}?" and you misread it as "Why should it be {{mainly stuff that makes people happy that gets restricted} and not {anything that involves payment}}?"
2. Is it only the drink that makes you happy in pubs, not the socialising?



> If the pubs can't manage to do it, they get made to. Safety of the public comes over profit.
> 
> There's no resurrecting old traditions, it's simply a case of they can't manage simple instructions, like taking correct contact details. Or maintaining the agreed distance. All conditions agreed to, before they were allowed to re-open in the first place.


Kicking everyone out at ten doesn't necessarily help with any of that, so are you saying it's just punishment?

And how exactly can they tell that taken contact details aren't correct, as long as "M Mouse" isn't on the list?


----------



## classic33 (22 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> 1. I wrote it as "Why should it be mainly {{stuff that makes people happy that gets restricted} and not {anything that involves payment}}?" and you misread it as "Why should it be {{mainly stuff that makes people happy that gets restricted} and not {anything that involves payment}}?"
> 2. Is it only the drink that makes you happy in pubs, not the socialising?
> 
> 
> ...


Maybe giving a thought to your choice of wording might help.

Pubs are not the sole source of socialising, but they are one where proper records aren't being kept. The minority, who feel the rules don't apply to them, have made it worse for the majority.

M. Mouse appeared at two local town centre pubs, along with a D. Trump and a B. Johnson.
Some haven't even set the means of recording the details. Legal requirement to be allowed to be open. Bear in mind they agreed to these conditions to be allowed to re-open. And you're the one who brought "ensuring public safety" into this. If basic rules, for ensuring public safety can't be done by those who should be doing them, why should they be allowed to open at all?

Four pubs, local to me, never applied because the personal licence holder felt that due to the premises, they couldn't meet the then current regulations.


----------



## brodiej (23 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Because Sweden is in all probability, now at the tail end of it's pandemic, and is unlikely to see any further major waves of disease.



That aged well

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-h...es-possible-as-covid-cases-rise-idUKKCN26D1U6


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## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

brodiej said:


> That aged well
> 
> https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-h...es-possible-as-covid-cases-rise-idUKKCN26D1U6


Boris tried the "now do you mind most awfully not getting too close and play nicely children" Approach and we just said "stuff you all we want to do is go to pub and get smashed" Along with covid I don't fear you your not stopping me the Germany's never did.


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## mjr (23 Sep 2020)

Some interesting views on and from NL, AT and RU on https://www.eurotopics.net/en/248093/corona-autumn-fear-of-lockdown-returns?zitat=247984#zitat247984


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## mjr (23 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Maybe giving a thought to your choice of wording might help.


Damnit, Jim, I'm a cyclist, not an author!

Also, few people persist telling someone what they meant after they've clarified it!



> Pubs are not the sole source of socialising, but they are one where proper records aren't being kept. The minority, who feel the rules don't apply to them, have made it worse for the majority.


Which completely misses the point that it's socialising being restricted when bars are not responsible for huge numbers of cases. If Boris was following the evidence I've seen, he'd be tightening up workplaces (especially food factories), dormitories and vehicles.



> M. Mouse appeared at two local town centre pubs, along with a D. Trump and a B. Johnson.
> Some haven't even set the means of recording the details. Legal requirement to be allowed to be open. Bear in mind they agreed to these conditions to be allowed to re-open.


So take action against those. Punishing the whole sector seems rather like keeping the whole class in detention despite knowing exactly who did it - and I hope we all accept what sort of illegal assaults outside the school gate often resulted from that. That's not what we need to see now!



> And you're the one who brought "ensuring public safety" into this.


That was a quote but anyway, this whole crisis is about public safety. That's not something I brought.


----------



## classic33 (23 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Damnit, Jim, I'm a cyclist, not an author!
> 
> Also, few people persist telling someone what they meant after they've clarified it!
> 
> ...


Clarified! You've tried to explain, more than once what *you* meant, and your answers don't match.

How do you take action against someone who has given false details?

The minority have made it worse for the majority. As is often the case. And many have had action taken against them, but they don't seem to care. Just another example of "I'm alright Jack, sod you". My enjoyment is more important than your health. Explain why you feel this is the case.

With regards "socialising", are you saying that pubs are the only place where this can take place. There's many small clubs, run in small halls, that are limited in number allowed to attend. Many of these are the only time some people will ever get out. But they've been forgotten, again. Why, in your opinion should pubs not be limited in the same way, number wise. Pubs seem the only place that numbers in the building doesn't count.


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## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Clarified! You've tried to explain, more than once what *you* meant, and your answers don't match.
> 
> How do you take action against someone who has given false details?
> 
> ...


Agree still no word on such clubs , or day centres either. So much of this has been all about the big boys who are always 1st in in line with the begging bowl. Any more funding now needs to the targeted to ones in real need. Small placers , locally owned and ran placers and services. Who with in the big scheme of this won't been much to keep ticking over or help to adapted to new ways of working. The big boys will happily walk away from the high street once the small local placers go. That's what really will kill things. We need now more than ever local money made and kept local. That's the only way we can rebuild the post covid mess. Communities with the right help can and do amazing things.
So many local services who have stepped up and taken on the gaps in state provision not to counting the way they stepped up to keep things going at the moment will not survive this and the state will be left with one hell of a problem.


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## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

Found the help page for the App that's out tomorrow. 
Plenty it to see what it just can do. One note of interest which looks to be at odds with how other guidelines appear laid down. 
Is it says no place can prevent you entering if you won't log a visit using it.


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## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

So covid only a problem before 10 and you must sit at a table as that fools it too. That's unless you go McDonald's turns out covid only likes licensed premises.  For ones can we just have some guidelines that join up.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54268918


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## PK99 (23 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> How do you take action against someone who has given false details?



Spot checks by licensing authority.
M. Mouse or D Trump is direct evidence of failure by the venue operator to comply with the law.
Venue *immediately* closed.
£10,000 fine.
License suspended for minimum 1 week and only reinstated after a personal appearance by Licensee and in the case of a Chain, by a senior manager of the Chain


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (23 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> So covid only a problem before 10 and you must sit at a table as that fools it too. That's unless you go McDonald's turns out covid only likes licensed premises.  For ones can we just have some guidelines that join up.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54268918


It's also afraid of chauffeur-driven cars or the people who get driven around in them....

Chauffeur-driven cars will be exempt from new laws forcing passengers to wear masks in taxis to slow the spread of coronavirus, Downing Street has said. As PA Media report, Boris Johnson announced that passengers in licensed vehicles would have to wear coverings under new restrictions in England aimed at preventing a resurgence of Covid-19. But No 10 said the measure, to come into force on Thursday, would not include passengers in chauffeur-driven cars, though the driver’s employer would have to ensure they could work safely. (Guardian Live - https://www.theguardian.com/politic...rictions-government-pmqs-covid-latest-updates)​​So, if you can get to the grouse moors in the chauffeur-driven car you're pretty much mask free....


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## deptfordmarmoset (23 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> Spot checks by licensing authority.
> M. Mouse or D Trump is direct evidence of failure by the venue operator to comply with the law.
> Venue *immediately* closed.
> £10,000 fine.
> License suspended for minimum 1 week and only reinstated after a personal appearance by Licensee and in the case of a Chain, by a senior manager of the Chain


Has this actually happened?


----------



## PK99 (23 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Has this actually happened?



No.
I'm suggesting an enforcement mechanism


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## vickster (23 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> Spot checks by licensing authority.
> M. Mouse or D Trump is direct evidence of failure by the venue operator to comply with the law.
> Venue *immediately* closed.
> £10,000 fine.
> License suspended for minimum 1 week and only reinstated after a personal appearance by Licensee and in the case of a Chain, by a senior manager of the Chain


Pub goers are pretty much paying by contactless now, so they presumably have a card with their name printed on it (or at least one person in the group should do) - should be easy enough for staff member at door to confirm name against track and trace form / table booking (ok there may be the odd genuine D.Duck or M.Mouse out there but not so many). No ID=no entry. Or is it not that simple?


----------



## PK99 (23 Sep 2020)

vickster said:


> Pub goers are pretty much paying by contactless now, so they presumably have a card with their name printed on it (or at least one person in the group should do) - should be easy enough for staff member at door to confirm name against track and trace form / table booking (ok there may be the odd genuine D.Duck or M.Mouse out there but not so many). No ID=no entry. Or is it not that simple?



Yes, it is that simple - so any venue not doing it should face draconian penalties.

My preference would be for personal ID of all customers, not just one in party who is "trusted"


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## vickster (23 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> Yes, it is that simple - so any venue not doing it should face draconian penalties.
> 
> My preference would be for personal ID of all customers, not just one in party who is "trusted"


Certainly for adults, and kids should be with adult family anyhow (maybe not the yoofs in Maccy D's)


----------



## matticus (23 Sep 2020)

It's a pretty feckin massive step in terms of personal liberties to require ID checks. A number of posters will respond:
"_It's hardly difficult/invasive! And everyone carries ID. Surely it's trivial if it saves thousands of deaths!_"

Well, maybe ...


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## marinyork (23 Sep 2020)

Four pubs shut here the last few days for not following so called covid secure standard.


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Sep 2020)

Big case numbers increase today


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Big case numbers increase today
> 
> View attachment 548779



And also translating into hospitalizations. Doubling time maybe 10 days or so. 

From the graun


*There were 275 hospital admissions for coronavirus patients in England on Monday, the most recent day for which figures are available.* That is up from 237 the previous day, and the highest daily figure since late June.
*There are now 1,381 patients in hospital in England with coronavirus. *A week ago the figure was 894.
*In Scotland there were 73 coronavirus patients in hospital on Tuesday (the most recent day for which figures are available on the dashboard).* A week earlier was 48.
*In Wales there were 93 coronavirus patients in hospital on Tuesday (the most recent day for which figures are available on the dashboard)*. A week earlier was 53.
*There are 192 coronavirus patients on mechanical ventilation in hospitals in England. *A week ago the figure was 107.
*In Scotland there were 10 patients on mechanical ventilation in hospital on Tuesday (the most recent figure for which figures are available on the dashboard).* A week earlier the figure was six.
*In Wales there were 18 patients on mechanical ventilation in hospital on Tuesday (the most recent figure for which figures are available on the dashboard).* A week earlier the figure was six.
*In Northern Ireland there were two patients on mechanical ventilation in hospital on Tuesday (the most recent figure for which figures are available on the dashboard)*. A week earlier the figure was two.


----------



## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

vickster said:


> Pub goers are pretty much paying by contactless now, so they presumably have a card with their name printed on it (or at least one person in the group should do) - should be easy enough for staff member at door to confirm name against track and trace form / table booking (ok there may be the odd genuine D.Duck or M.Mouse out there but not so many). No ID=no entry. Or is it not that simple?



That's not going to work 1) bank cards are not legal form of ID, 2) financial information cannot as the current law stands be used for track and trace. 3) Many no longer carry a bit of plastic about but use Apple pay and the like so nothing with a name on to check. I for one don't my mate is the same. Or 4) Many placers make you order and pay by an app so no card used either. The ones who really care will already have a basic policy of if they don't believe you they wont serve you. Any licensee can refuse to serve anyone as it is. The ones who don't care won't last much longer now local authorities have legal power to act. Which on track and trace they only got last week. An area near me has already closed down 5. Once covid secure becomes legal requirement they will have more power.Be a lot more simpler than going going down the licensing route. How quick they can deal with them is all down to numbers of LA enforcement offices which have been cut to the bone. 
One things for sure license renew time will interesting. If the app was more than it is and had a secure booking element that meant all booking went though it and ID checked in ways government online already has in place before you even got the door. We'd not have a problem at all if it went together with effective track and trace that's all joined up with local primary care and public health. Which we still don't have. 
One thing I'd have like to have been added is the legal requirement to publicly display the covid risk assessment. Including on SM and websites. You'd quickly see who been bothered by a quick read before you get to the door. One place I went to did just that and one quick read showed they'd done everything by the book. 
In the end if people want to carry on treating this thing as joke then they need a wake up call it's not about them it's about everyone. 
This is a pandemic and we don't have time for oh but I can't , Oh i don't want to , oh i won't well it's simple oh just get a fecking grip.


----------



## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

More on NHS App inc how it works out if your at risk of having covid. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54250736


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## mjr (23 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Clarified! You've tried to explain, more than once what *you* meant, and your answers don't match.


In your opinion, but whatever.



> How do you take action against someone who has given false details?


I meant against the pub accepting M Mouse, D Trump and B Johnson, but whatever.



> The minority have made it worse for the majority. As is often the case. And many have had action taken against them, but they don't seem to care. Just another example of "I'm alright Jack, sod you". My enjoyment is more important than your health. Explain why you feel this is the case.


I don't. Stop making shoot up about me, please.



> With regards "socialising", are you saying that pubs are the only place where this can take place.


No. As you noted, other socialising venues are also being restricted too, although in different ways. Even open-air socialising is being restricted and, as you noted, the differences do not make sense.

The core absurdity is illustrated by it being legal to meet multiple groups of five through a day in an airtight room, but it's illegal to meet six others outdoors once.


----------



## mjr (23 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> More on NHS App inc how it works out if your at risk of having covid.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54250736


Has anyone seen a decent independent review and build of the source code yet, please?

The attempt to add some carrots to it (such as check-in and local area info) is better than the failed attempt, but I'm still not convinced those carrots and basically appealing to people's altruism (the "if enough people use this app, fewer will die" argument) is enough to overcome the stick of it being able to order you to quarantine.


----------



## marinyork (23 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> More on NHS App inc how it works out if your at risk of having covid.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54250736



As it's attempting to measure up to 4 metres there will be a lot of false positives. Not sure the weighting is correct at half there either.


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## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> As it's attempting to measure up to 4 metres there will be a lot of false positives. Not sure the weighting is correct at half there either.


Yes It is a bit out without knowing the error margin it's hard to say just how much and how many false positives it though up. 
Any idea what other counties have used with similar coded based app ?
If it keeps giving you false readings once too often. Many will just stop using it.


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## lane (23 Sep 2020)

So far only one thing has worked to curb covid worldwide


----------



## marinyork (23 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes It is a bit out without knowing the error margin it's hard to say just how much and how many false positives it though up.
> Any idea what other counties have used with similar coded based app ?
> If it keeps giving you false readings once too often. Many will just stop using it.



I'm not sure how accurate the calibration values are for each phone (yeah I know they exist). I'm not even sure how long the advertise is and how often it's repeated.

I did hear that Singapore got very frustrated and launched a single device for people to use.


----------



## mjr (23 Sep 2020)

lane said:


> So far only one thing has worked to curb covid worldwide


Do you mean lockdown or decent test-and-trace?


----------



## classic33 (23 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> In your opinion, but whatever.


Your first response was "I said mainly"


> I meant against the pub accepting M Mouse, D Trump and B Johnson, but whatever.


The individuals using those names were the ones I meant, clearly asked.



> *I don't. Stop making shoot up about me, please.*
> 
> 
> No. As you noted, other socialising venues are also being restricted too, although in different ways. Even open-air socialising is being restricted and, as you noted, the differences do not make sense.
> ...


Nothing has been "made up" about you. What was clearly stated was _"The minority have made it worse for the majority. As is often the case."._


----------



## classic33 (23 Sep 2020)

lane said:


> So far only one thing has worked to curb covid worldwide


Walling the city off, allowing no-one out?


----------



## classic33 (23 Sep 2020)

lane said:


> So far only one thing has worked to curb covid worldwide


Walling the city off, allowing no-one out?


----------



## classic33 (23 Sep 2020)

lane said:


> So far only one thing has worked to curb covid worldwide


Walling the city off, allowing no-one out?


----------



## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm not sure how accurate the calibration values are for each phone (yeah I know they exist). I'm not even sure how long the advertise is and how often it's repeated.
> 
> I did hear that Singapore got very frustrated and launched a single device for people to use.


Just this week I think they started using them. Other placers are looking at using them too. Some companies are already using them. I Remember reading.
As for our app as winter comes and we have phones berried in thick coats and at bottom of bags. Can’t see that helping things either.


----------



## mjr (23 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Nothing has been "made up" about you. What was clearly stated was _"The minority have made it worse for the majority. As is often the case."._


And what was "clearly asked" was "Just another example of "I'm alright Jack, sod you". My enjoyment is more important than your health. Explain why you feel this is the case" when I don't feel that anyone's enjoyment is more important than someone else's health, contrary to the implication.


----------



## mjr (23 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes It is a bit out without knowing the error margin it's hard to say just how much and how many false positives it though up.
> Any idea what other counties have used with similar coded based app ?


I think it's using the Google/Apple exposure API, so pretty much all the apps that work will be using the same method.

Anyone know the story behind Huawei phones being excluded?



tom73 said:


> If it keeps giving you false readings once too often. Many will just stop using it.


I think many will stop using it after the first or second time it tells them to isolate and test anyway, even if it was a justified alert but negative test.


----------



## marinyork (23 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> I think it's using the Google/Apple exposure API, so pretty much all the apps that work will be using the same method.
> 
> Anyone know the story behind Huawei phones being excluded?
> 
> ...



The same method is still a weird lookup table for lots of different phones which as mentioned upthread drove singapore bonkers.

Trump ordered restrictions on China, google blocked them from the API.

One aspect I'm not sure of is the alert. There seems to be suggestions that you can get a venue alert rather than cumulative risk score alert from a positive person.


----------



## marinyork (23 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just this week I think they started using them. Other placers are looking at using them too. Some companies are already using them. I Remember reading.
> As for our app as winter comes and we have phones berried in thick coats and at bottom of bags. Can’t see that helping things either.



I think there will be the reverse problem. Neighbours having phones shouting at each other and clocking up half an hour's worth of risk. That's the worry among others of having such a high rating for up to four metres (half of 2 metres).

Others are saying because they are more concerned with measuring the time exposure vs other factors (which can be done more accurately).

You are supposed to switch the app off on the home screen e.g. if you're behind a barrier or in PPE.


----------



## mjr (23 Sep 2020)

Covids on a plane!

View: https://twitter.com/ArtJonak/status/1307666296104988672/photo/1


Most of the compartment caught it. So much for the air con filters?


----------



## classic33 (23 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> And what was "clearly asked" was "Just another example of "I'm alright Jack, sod you". My enjoyment is more important than your health. Explain why you feel this is the case" when I don't feel that anyone's enjoyment is more important than someone else's health, contrary to the implication.


_"Explain why you feel this is the case"_ was the question. You seem to feel that pubs should be excluded from restrictions, but refuse to say why.

The "I'm alright Jack" was a continuation of the example. Quoting part of the post makes it easier to get it wrong.


----------



## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think there will be the reverse problem. Neighbours having phones shouting at each other and clocking up half an hour's worth of risk. That's the worry among others of having such a high rating for up to four metres (half of 2 metres).
> 
> Others are saying because they are more concerned with measuring the time exposure vs other factors (which can be done more accurately).
> 
> You are supposed to switch the app off on the home screen e.g. if you're behind a barrier or in PPE.


Yes many new builds have paper thin walls at best. Unless you can set up reminders how many are going to remember to turn them off at work ? Most just but them in a locker and leave. Leaving your phone in the car may don't do it much good either.
It's going to be of little use in placers that even having a phone at work is a no no. Prisons being one of them it's not just just a big no no it's an offence. Even visiting police officers have to hand them over. 
The other thing it can't work out is the direction back to back for example is much less risk than face to face take it can't work out if your inside or out either. So plenty of variables that you can't control.


----------



## mjr (23 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> You seem to feel that pubs should be excluded from restrictions, but refuse to say why.


No, I don't feel that. However, I would like the restrictions to be evidence-based and logical across activities, not all this obsession about pubs while ignoring bigger problems.


----------



## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

Someone just asked if me he'd read this right (No he's not bored he's looking stuff for work) so I looked it up.
The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (No. 2) (England) Regulations 2020 under linked households appears to say that once you form a linked house you can't change it or form a new one even if you are no longer linked to the 1st. So you better not have family fall out then


----------



## marinyork (23 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Someone just asked if me he'd read this right (No he's not bored he's looking stuff for work) so I looked it up.
> The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (No. 2) (England) Regulations 2020 under linked households appears to say that once you form a linked house you can't change it or form a new one even if you are no longer linked to the 1st. So you better not have family fall out then



Yep. They did say that one was coming in.


----------



## stowie (23 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think there will be the reverse problem. Neighbours having phones shouting at each other and clocking up half an hour's worth of risk. That's the worry among others of having such a high rating for up to four metres (half of 2 metres).
> 
> Others are saying because they are more concerned with measuring the time exposure vs other factors (which can be done more accurately).
> 
> You are supposed to switch the app off on the home screen e.g. if you're behind a barrier or in PPE.



I am not particularly au-fait with the app, and maybe there are some clever algorithms which improve accuracy and repeatability with range, but Bluetooth is not a communications protocol which allows accurate distance measurement. I am amazed that there are bands of 0-2M, 2-4M and 4M+. The number of variables at play with the measurements that can be made which are a proxy for distance seem pretty big to me. In fact there are no protocols which run on phones which can accurately measure distance. There must be a lot of number crunching going on in these apps.

I hope that the app data is taken as part of a range of factors to determine isolation requirements - for example effective track and trace contacting and so on.


----------



## lane (23 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> Walling the city off, allowing no-one out?



Full lockdown is the only policy that has been proved to work. Everything else has failed to curb the spread of the virus.


----------



## lane (23 Sep 2020)

If I catch it - it will either be at work or at home. Either way the app won't help.


----------



## raleighnut (23 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> I am not particularly au-fait with the app, and maybe there are some clever algorithms which improve accuracy and repeatability with range, but Bluetooth is not a communications protocol which allows accurate distance measurement. I am amazed that there are bands of 0-2M, 2-4M and 4M+. The number of variables at play with the measurements that can be made which are a proxy for distance seem pretty big to me. In fact there are no protocols which run on phones which can accurately measure distance. There must be a lot of number crunching going on in these apps.
> 
> I hope that the app data is taken as part of a range of factors to determine isolation requirements - for example effective track and trace contacting and so on.


Yep lets just say you're in a car stuck in traffic and the person in the car next to you is diagnosed with Covid, you could easily be in range of their phone for quite some time but in a completely isolated environment.


----------



## marinyork (23 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> I am not particularly au-fait with the app, and maybe there are some clever algorithms which improve accuracy and repeatability with range, but Bluetooth is not a communications protocol which allows accurate distance measurement. I am amazed that there are bands of 0-2M, 2-4M and 4M+. The number of variables at play with the measurements that can be made which are a proxy for distance seem pretty big to me. In fact there are no protocols which run on phones which can accurately measure distance. There must be a lot of number crunching going on in these apps.
> 
> I hope that the app data is taken as part of a range of factors to determine isolation requirements - for example effective track and trace contacting and so on.



It depends what you mean by accurate. 

Lovett et al. 2020. covers the method that it's believed the UK government originally was basing things on. The google API is less accurate. I'm not sure how you get around the problem of the lost information and instead having to substitute lookup tables.


----------



## marinyork (23 Sep 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Yep lets just say you're in a car stuck in traffic and the person in the car next to you is diagnosed with Covid, you could easily be in range of their phone for quite some time but in a completely isolated environment.



Far more practically. Bluetooth LE if I'm in my bedroom or living room can be within 4 metres of back to back neighbours bedroom or living room. There's not a vanishingly small chance of over months that it never clocks up half an hour's worth of 4 metres within a 24 hour period (which includes errors). It easily travels into next door. Same problem at uni (which is interesting).


----------



## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

lane said:


> Full lockdown is the only policy that has been proved to work. Everything else has failed to curb the spread of the virus.


A 2m long cattle prod be more fun though


----------



## classic33 (23 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> A 2m long cattle prod be more fun though


One disguised as a walking stick.


----------



## marinyork (23 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes many new builds have paper thin walls at best. Unless you can set up reminders how many are going to remember to turn them off at work ? Most just but them in a locker and leave. Leaving your phone in the car may don't do it much good either.
> It's going to be of little use in placers that even having a phone at work is a no no. Prisons being one of them it's not just just a big no no it's an offence. Even visiting police officers have to hand them over.
> The other thing it can't work out is the direction back to back for example is much less risk than face to face take it can't work out if your inside or out either. So plenty of variables that you can't control.



Absolutely. It'd have been useless in my old workplace.

In shared spaces at uni, the app is reasonably practical solution (QR codes for areas is another one).

For a pub I visited, the new NHS app is a reasonable solution because it records times better and a discriminant on distance even if that has flaws. Bluetooth LE at least logs the time exposure and time for people in the same half of a room I was in - won't log the other half and certainly not the other rooms/bar room. Whereas it's alleged that track and trace are getting uppity and telling everyone from a pub in one day to quarantine.

And I've only been in pubs and cafes. Other venues would apply if they have a similar geography.


----------



## lane (23 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> A 2m long cattle prod be more fun though



Would be helpful at work I can tell you that.


----------



## lane (23 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Absolutely. It'd have been useless in my old workplace.
> 
> In shared spaces at uni, the app is reasonably practical solution (QR codes for areas is another one).
> 
> ...



Thing is I know who I come into close contact at work. I also know when they have had to self isolate and would also know if they tested positive. Exactly same as at home with my family.


----------



## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Far more practically. Bluetooth LE if I'm in my bedroom or living room can be within 4 metres of back to back neighbours bedroom or living room. There's not a vanishingly small chance of over months that it never clocks up half an hour's worth of 4 metres within a 24 hour period (which includes errors). It easily travels into next door. Same problem at uni (which is interesting).


Looked up that paper and another come up just read it. The more you look and more it looks like a big set of errors before you start.
You bet me to it re uni was thinking it's going to be fun. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54268780 
though the high number is down to a large out break. Imagine that happening every few weeks due to app says yes.


----------



## marinyork (23 Sep 2020)

lane said:


> Thing is I know who I come into close contact at work. I also know when they have had to self isolate and would also know if they tested positive. Exactly same as at home with my family.



I don't. Not for work, not for travel on public transport nor for other activities (although they've shut down face to face even though they are theoretically allowed up to 15 indoors under the latest laws).

If I was at my old workplace I wouldn't know who I came into close contact with, travel not an issue there.

My parents are coopers and not free rangers on the whole, although they attend a church. If it wasn't for that you could say with reasonable confidence who caught it off who. The church has already had people die of coronavirus in the spring.


----------



## tom73 (23 Sep 2020)

NHS app now showing up in app store looks to have come early.


----------



## PK99 (23 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> NHS app now showing up in app store looks to have come early.



download and set up is trivial.


----------



## cookiemonster (24 Sep 2020)

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...g-kong-add-britain-high-risk-coronavirus-list

UK travellers will need a negative Covid test result before boarding and quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. From next week.


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> download and set up is trivial.



So did I every time I turn it off I had to set it up all over again. Now if that is happening every time you need to do that people will stop using it.



cookiemonster said:


> https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...g-kong-add-britain-high-risk-coronavirus-list
> 
> UK travellers will need a negative Covid test result before boarding and quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. From next week.



Have to be a private test maybe Serco can set one up in competition with Serco track and trace. I'm sure Dido can help them.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Sep 2020)

COVID 19 swab test done. The throat swab made me gag, so brief pause before doing other tonsil. The video instructions say that if you gag the swab is in the right place. Nose swab not half as bad in comparison.

Now in fridge awaiting courier.


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Far more practically. Bluetooth LE if I'm in my bedroom or living room can be within 4 metres of back to back neighbours bedroom or living room. There's not a vanishingly small chance of over months that it never clocks up half an hour's worth of 4 metres within a 24 hour period (which includes errors). It easily travels into next door. Same problem at uni (which is interesting).


Reading the details say you can show this is happening or some other situation is leading to this. So you get told to isolate you can't challenge it. It was going to allow you to contact 111 and get the all clear that has now been removed. So if app says get a test even if you don't need one that's fine. But if you have want one even if you have a good idea you should you're told not to. It's not helping with building confidence.


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

A uni friend went back to Japan and it's mandatory to have a coronavirus test at arrivals in Japan. It is a saliva test though.


----------



## PK99 (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> So did I every time I turn it off I had to set it up all over again. Now if that is happening every time you need to do that people will stop using it.



I've just tried turning scanning on and off and exiting the app. It turns on again with no problems


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Sep 2020)

Installed app. It allows you to set a reminder when you turn it off. I’ve set it to remind me in four hours. Currently at home awaiting courier for swab test.


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> download and set up is trivial.



What's the bit about risk in your neighbourhood like?


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

Hearing Matt Hancock on the news 'the app only tells you to self isolate if in close contact'. Well no, that's a lie as 2 to 4 metres is not defined as close contact and not defined as a high risk.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> More on NHS App inc how it works out if your at risk of having covid.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54250736



I looked at Android market share for first half of 2020. Android 5.0 and below has 15% of the market share. So the app will (in theory) work on 85% of the android phones currently in use. So that’s high enough for it to be an useful tool if enough people install it and use it and carry phone when out and about.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Hearing Matt Hancock on the news 'the app only tells you to self isolate if in close contact'. Well no, that's a lie as 2 to 4 metres is not defined as close contact and not defined as a high risk.



2-4 metres for at least 30 mins.


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> What's the bit about risk in your neighbourhood like?


It works but gives bare minimum of what it means and very basic information on how to stay safe.
If you go outside your postcode area you can't change it.
When I say it works my area comes up as high risk with extra measures in place. Which is news to me case numbers are going up but not on the list yet.


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> 2-4 metres for at least 30 mins.



Yes as I said yesterday this weighting is very very high, especially as all current socialising I am doing is outdoors.


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I looked at Android market share for first half of 2020. Android 5.0 and below has 15% of the market share. So the app will (in theory) work on 85% of the android phones currently in use. So that’s high enough for it to be an useful tool if enough people install it and use it and carry phone when out and about.


Take up is a real problem no county has got it high enough. 
The trial area for this app only got one in ten , Scotland is only just pushing around one in 5 after two weeks. 
Even Ireland which has no lack of confidence in it's app is at one in three that's after it came out in July. 
Having Hancock this morning pushing this and coming across as totally arrogant is not a great start.
We need more boots on the ground not a machine that go's ping this will not fix that problem.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Sep 2020)

An interesting article on the risk looking as exposure and time

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them


----------



## DCLane (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> What's the bit about risk in your neighbourhood like?



Mine's 'HIGH' - but then a mile from I am is dark blue on the Covid case map and in first part postcode: https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/we...-IVwMbqnpUGUheHnlspDDuAg_WFxtz9Y3_MNV9DlzmDsk


----------



## mjr (24 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I looked at Android market share for first half of 2020. Android 5.0 and below has 15% of the market share. So the app will (in theory) work on 85% of the android phones currently in use.


But 16ish% are Huawei which are excluded https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/hua...be-no-1-smartphone-maker-thanks-to-china.html

Presumably the blockade on China getting the exposure software also affects the various Xiaomi brands (itself, Redmi, Oppo and more) so that's another 8% gone. https://gs.statcounter.com/vendor-market-share/mobile/europe



> So that’s high enough for it to be an useful tool if enough people install it and use it and carry phone when out and about.


I still doubt that it's attractive enough to get much use.


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

Advertise for the bluetooth LE on this app is an average every 3.6 minutes. Which is curious given they are trying to measure 15 mins. So a average of 4 data points for 15 mins, wonder if this ramps up if someone is closeby.


----------



## mjr (24 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> An interesting article on the risk looking as exposure and time
> 
> https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them


Last updated May. Misses some obvious measures against its concerns like closing toilet lids.


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

2 to 4 metres is 'medium' exposure. It measures the entire sequence in terms of deciding whether someone is high risk which doesn't surprise me as I have an idea how the algorithm works and processing of data points is done.

I am not actually sure what the BBC has written is 100% correct.


----------



## fossyant (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Yes as I said yesterday this weighting is very very high, especially as all current socialising I am doing is outdoors.



What's this 'socialising' you talk about. Only seen family, my wife's friend, and that's it. Billy no mates !


----------



## Skibird (24 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> Mine's 'HIGH' - but then a mile from I am is dark blue on the Covid case map and in first part postcode: https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/we...-IVwMbqnpUGUheHnlspDDuAg_WFxtz9Y3_MNV9DlzmDsk


Here in the Isle of Wight, the risk has just gone up to Medium (on both our Huwawei phones, which this and 1st app worked fine on), and Islanders are up in arms about the test centres here being full of mainly mainlanders, many of which are having positive results, with no extra care being taken when they are coming over.


----------



## mjr (24 Sep 2020)

Skibird said:


> Here in the Isle of Wight, the risk has just gone up to Medium (on both our Huwawei phones, which this and 1st app worked fine on), [...]


Curiouser and curiouser. Do your phones have "exposure notifications" in the settings, maybe under Wellbeing?


----------



## Skibird (24 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Curiouser and curiouser. Do your phones have "exposure notifications" in the settings, maybe under Wellbeing?


Doesn't appear to.


----------



## raleighnut (24 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> What's this 'socialising' you talk about. Only seen family, my wife's friend, and that's it. Billy no mates !


Aye similar here since march.


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> What's this 'socialising' you talk about. Only seen family, my wife's friend, and that's it. Billy no mates !



Unfortunately quite a few on this thread could do with more social contact than has gone on recently. Especially as we face a long winter. I'm intensely relaxed about very small groups meeting outdoors if they keep 2 metres apart.

I haven't been in a person's house since feb. I suspect that isn't the case for many out there, especially neighbours.

I was supposed to be going back to the office, which has got knocked back. As a result of that I was trying to get used to going back into town and indoors in August and early Sep (mostly cafes, shops, 2 indoor pub visits). This has mostly been alone or socialising with 1 other person.

Aside from that I have had social contact with others, but that's related to two lots of volunteering I do where there is a social aspect to it, as there would be in other spheres. Indoors, that's ceased for one and in the other case back online. I don't actually agree with the latter. Even then it was groups of six when even under the new rules it is allowed to be 15.


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Aye similar here since march.



Is that because no one wants to meet outside or travel?


----------



## fossyant (24 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Curiouser and curiouser. Do your phones have "exposure notifications" in the settings, maybe under Wellbeing?



Two colleagues just joked, that the app is showing them as high risk, sat WFH with a cup of tea.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Sep 2020)

Hmm, so far as I can see, the Scottish App has 'ON' and 'OFF'


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Two colleagues just joked, that the app is showing them as high risk, sat WFH with a cup of tea.


I hope it's covid secure work place


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> I hope it's covid secure work place



This is fascinating. I think there may have been an edict from the council or inspections since the changes that have just come in. The cafe I'm sat in alone (been past and in a few times) has completely reorganised the seating and ripped even more out. The only downside to this is it may encourage bigger groups.

This venue I believe was covid secure, so it's interesting it's been tightened up considerably.


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> This is fascinating. I think there may have been an edict from the council or inspections since the changes that have just come in. The cafe I'm sat in alone (been past and in a few times) has completely reorganised the seating and ripped even more out. The only downside to this is it may encourage bigger groups.
> 
> This venue I believe was covid secure, so it's interesting it's been tightened up considerably.


Maybe they been round I've notice some supermarkets have now pushed back and acting much more like they should have been. 
Some are still a few for all. One thing it's made the queue worse now one long one waiting for a till with plenty of chatting and standing up close. Trying to keep your distance as go past the shelves is interesting. How long it will last come key Christmas trade I don't know.


----------



## Accy cyclist (24 Sep 2020)

Not bad eh! Work a third of your usual working week yet get paid for your usual whole week!!


----------



## vickster (24 Sep 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Not bad eh! Work a third of your usual working week yet get paid for your usual whole week!!


Time for you to get a job then to take advantage?


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

So what's the alternative @Accy cyclist ?
Pay them benefits until they get a job which no-one has a clue which jobs will be left at the end of this. 
In the mean time leading to mental health issues, over due bills, rent/mortgage arrears, or even worse eviction and homelessness. 
All effect not just them but the wider economy and society. That's before we even get to ill health from fuel and food poverty. 
Or if the house hold has kids to being up or the effect on them health and eduction wise. 
My mate is a CEO of local leisure company they have to run at 50% capacity due to covid safe rules. Now he's more than happy to comply and has done everything by the book because he just want's everyone to be safe. They can't without help keep everyone employed once furlough ends and he was looking at letting people go. Now he can more than likely keep all staff but on less hours and still breakeven. That's all he really is looking for at the moment keeping afloat and paying the bills. He's already taken out a 100K loan to keep the wheels on. What more would you like him to do sack people and say never mind you can have your job back once covid is over? Or keep everyone in work with some state help?


----------



## midlife (24 Sep 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Not bad eh! Work a third of your usual working week yet get paid for your usual whole week!!



I think it's work 1/3 of your hours and get paid 77% of your salary. varies on how many hours you work.


----------



## Accy cyclist (24 Sep 2020)

vickster said:


> Time for you to get a job then to take advantage?


I've done my bit! Being self employed at the time of my cancer i was back at work two weeks after my operation. This snowflake generation will probably need counselling just to get them back to work. Which we now find will not be for the foreseeable future! The teachers will be just itching for school closures now!!


----------



## Accy cyclist (24 Sep 2020)

And talking of 'itching' i'm just itching for some muzzled Stasi type to confront me over my refusal to bow down to this growing police state and wear one! I was nearly there last night in a local supermarket. One pleb glared at me(well it seemed so,even though i could only see half a face). 'Come on,bring it on'! was the telepathic message i sent to the pleb,but i think my steel tipped walking cane might've deterred an aggressive advance.


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## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

NHS app failed to log out of a venue (for whatever reason, I don't know).


----------



## vickster (24 Sep 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> I've done my bit! Being self employed at the time of my cancer i was back at work two weeks after my operation. This snowflake generation will probably need counselling just to get them back to work. Which we now find will not be for the foreseeable future! The teachers will be just itching for school closures now!!


don‘t you think your beloved pubs would probably have gone under without furlough and without this new scheme?


----------



## vickster (24 Sep 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> And talking of 'itching' i'm just itching for some muzzled Stasi type to confront me over my refusal to bow down to this growing police state and wear one! I was nearly there last night in a local supermarket. One pleb glared at me(well it seemed so,even though i could only see half a face). 'Come on,bring it on'! was the telepathic message i sent to the pleb,but i think my steel tipped walking cane might've deterred an aggressive advance.


What a big clever brave man you are


----------



## fossyant (24 Sep 2020)

vickster said:


> What a big clever brave man you are



And given his health conditions, you'd think he'd wear one. Just wear one you nob !


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> NHS app failed to log out of a venue (for whatever reason, I don't know).


When you tried ? 
The guide says that if you forget it logs you out it should log you out in 24 hours. But then that's not much help either with all the variables this app may end up making things worse.


----------



## fossyant (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> When you tried ?
> The guide says that if you forget it logs you out it should log you out in 24 hours. But then that's not much help either with all the variables this app may end up making things worse.



24 hours in the boozer, or even worse, 24 hours drinking coffee


----------



## mjr (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Yes as I said yesterday this weighting is very very high, especially as all current socialising I am doing is outdoors.


I've not as much experience with Bluetooth LE, but regular Bluetooth achieves a higher range outdoors away from interference from ring mains and the like, so I do wonder what real-world outdoor distances will be measured as "2-4m" by this system.

I'm also puzzled why the press don't seem to be questioning this policy change to 4m for 30mins now being a close contact and demanding the evidence for it. App-driven policy-making?


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> When you tried ?
> The guide says that if you forget it logs you out it should log you out in 24 hours. But then that's not much help either with all the variables this app may end up making things worse.



Yes when I tried.

It does log me out, I am logged out of the venue at midnight.


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> And given his health conditions, you'd think he'd wear one. Just wear one you nob !


Sadly not alone I had the local one in the shop last night his wife was wearing one but not him. If that was not enough every time he open his mouth he shouting all the place. Neither are deaf or any health issues


----------



## nickyboy (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> So what's the alternative @Accy cyclist ?
> Pay them benefits until they get a job which no-one has a clue which jobs will be left at the end of this.
> In the mean time leading to mental health issues, over due bills, rent/mortgage arrears, or even worse eviction and homelessness.
> All effect not just them but the wider economy and society. That's before we even get to ill health from fuel and food poverty.
> ...


I think the broader thrust of this support is to get employers to either get staff in and working in some capacity or close. I'm thinking of all those businesses offering services to city office based companies, hospitality sector etc. They're either going to have to pay minimum 55% of wages for their staff or make them redundant
We're seeing a major shift in working and thus economic and employment patterns and I think there will be quite a lot of jobs that just won't be needed going forward. What the government is doing now is not using our money to continue to support those jobs (as they did with the furlough scheme) that are going to evaporate anyway


----------



## mjr (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> When you tried ?
> The guide says that if you forget it logs you out it should log you out in 24 hours. But then that's not much help either with all the variables this app may end up making things worse.


Or when you check in somewhere else. I'd probably go scan the code of a nearby café that's closed, so that I'm logged out of the previous one and if I'm contacted about an outbreak at the closed cafe, it should be verifiable I wasn't in there because no-one was.

Regarding people as checked in for 24 hours has the potential to lead to a massive number of false positives.


----------



## fossyant (24 Sep 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> I've done my bit! Being self employed at the time of my cancer i was back at work two weeks after my operation. This snowflake generation will probably need counselling just to get them back to work. Which we now find will not be for the foreseeable future! The teachers will be just itching for school closures now!!



Just think how lucky you are 'retired' - you aren't stuck trying to work, or even get a job in this situation, and the economy is going to be knackered for years. This will affect us younger ones in our pensions, never mind those much younger. There will be many hundreds of thousands out of work. 

Those already on various state benefits aren't going to feel this as much as those who were working hard, and no longer have a job. That's what these payments are trying to protect.


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Yes when I tried.
> 
> It does log me out, I am logged out of the venue at midnight.


Midnight that's right remember now you can also delete your visit recored yourself. Contact history you can't though.


----------



## fossyant (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sadly not alone I had the local one in the shop last night his wife was wearing one but not him. If that was not enough every time he open his mouth he shouting all the place. Neither are deaf or any health issues



Bloke in his 20's in local co-op not wearing one either last night - couldn't claim asthma as he was busy buying his ciggys. One of the things that came out is that CV19 doesn't adversely affect smokers more than others, unless there is an underlying lung condition.


----------



## mjr (24 Sep 2020)

Report of 45% false positive rate in first trials, reduced by 25% in new version (so that's 33% false positive then?) according to https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nhs-coronavirus-app-only-works-22733773

Also, only working on the latest and generally more expensive phones does raise questions about the "digital divide" and fairness - although if the app turns out to be a load of shoot telling loads of people to quarantine needlessly, maybe not in the way the Mirror would probably care about!

[Edit to add:] Blimey that's a short list of phones: 4 iPhones, 12 Samsungs, 7 Googles, 2 Xiaomis, an LG and a Nokia.


----------



## mjr (24 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> couldn't claim asthma as he was busy buying his ciggys.


Not sure how you reason that one out. Plenty of asthmatics smoke. This from 2004: "In most developed countries ∼25% of adults with asthma are current cigarette smokers"


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I think the broader thrust of this support is to get employers to either get staff in and working in some capacity or close. I'm thinking of all those businesses offering services to city office based companies, hospitality sector etc. They're either going to have to pay minimum 55% of wages for their staff or make them redundant
> We're seeing a major shift in working and thus economic and employment patterns and I think there will be quite a lot of jobs that just won't be needed going forward. What the government is doing now is not using our money to continue to support those jobs (as they did with the furlough scheme) that are going to evaporate anyway



Totally agree if a job will no longer be around the time and money need's to be in retraining. Which in most cases is in more skilled employment. Though lifelong learning has been for some time an easy target for most governments. Which now more than ever will need real funding for some time. Too much of the economy has for too long been built on shifting sand and now need's a radical rethink. 
In the case of my mate they can once it's over sustained current employment or near it. The business is a sound one and has no outstanding issues. It's the not having time to plan or do much about having 50% less income due to matters outside his control that's the issue.


----------



## midlife (24 Sep 2020)

Our employers policy is that if Track and Trace tell you to isolate then you do (and tell occupational health), not a word yet from them if your phone tells you to self-isolate.


----------



## vickster (24 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Just think how lucky you are 'retired' - you aren't stuck trying to work, or even get a job in this situation, and the economy is going to be knackered for years. This will affect us younger ones in our pensions, never mind those much younger. There will be many hundreds of thousands out of work.
> 
> Those already on various state benefits aren't going to feel this as much as those who were working hard, and no longer have a job. That's what these payments are trying to protect.


Isn't he actually on JSA (is that the new fangled term for unemployment benefit/UB40?) rather than a state pension as he's not yet 60?


----------



## vickster (24 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Bloke in his 20's in local co-op not wearing one either last night - couldn't claim asthma as he was busy buying his ciggys. One of the things that came out is that CV19 doesn't adversely affect smokers more than others, unless there is an underlying lung condition.


He could claim COPD though...


----------



## stowie (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> It depends what you mean by accurate.
> 
> Lovett et al. 2020. covers the method that it's believed the UK government originally was basing things on. The google API is less accurate. I'm not sure how you get around the problem of the lost information and instead having to substitute lookup tables.



From my understanding. Which might be wrong 

RSSI is a very poor indicator of distance. Which makes sense. It was never designed for that purpose. A myriad of environmental factors affect the measurement and whilst it is possible to perform almost miracles at extracting signal from noise, this seems a really big problem based on what I have read.

Bluetooth fundamentally is not a standard which is designed for distance measurements. Other protocols can allow distance measurements but they are complicated, expensive and not found on consumer goods. For bluetooth, ibeacon is probably the closest to good distance measurement, but this requires careful setup of the beacons to provide triangulation for good results. And the nature of the system means careful setup can reduce environmental variability. 

My surprise was the categories for distance. It seems to me unlikely that any system with such variability could produce repeatable results, but there are cleverer people on the problem than me and I may well be missing something here.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Sep 2020)

Random health and safety visit to my wife’s work place yesterday. Normally they get told in advance which I always thought was daft. COVID checks plus other stuff.


----------



## mjr (24 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Random health and safety visit to my wife’s work place yesterday. Normally they get told in advance which I always thought was daft. COVID checks plus other stuff.


And did they find any COVID?


----------



## raleighnut (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Is that because no one wants to meet outside or travel?


It's a bit of both, one of my friends came back to the UK from Australia after visiting his ex in Germany over the Christmas/New Year and after staying with Kirsten for a couple of months came to England, he was only here for 4 days as there was talk in Australia of banning air travel from Europe (like NZ did) so I didn't get to see him. Another friend got knocked off his Scooter and was hospitalised for a few months at the start of 'lockdown' and I couldn't visit him. As for the 'mates' I'd see at gigs well they went out the window as did the pub trips.
We've seen Maz's Son and his family (we had a Barbecue with just them as guests) and Eldest Grandaughter came round with her partner and son for a Sunday Dinner, a couple of Maz's friends came round one day and my mate Pete has been round a couple of times but that's it.


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> From my understanding. Which might be wrong
> 
> RSSI is a very poor indicator of distance. Which makes sense. It was never designed for that purpose. A myriad of environmental factors affect the measurement and whilst it is possible to perform almost miracles at extracting signal from noise, this seems a really big problem based on what I have read.
> 
> Bluetooth fundamentally is not a standard which is designed for distance measurements. Other protocols can allow distance measurements but they are complicated, expensive and not found on consumer goods. For bluetooth, ibeacon is probably the closest to good distance measurement, but this requires careful setup of the beacons to provide triangulation for good results. And the nature of the system means careful setup can reduce environmental variability.



As stated 3 times now because I think this is being missed by you, the google API doesn't use RSSI directly, it uses a lookup table. This is also why singapore kicked off about their attempt (mentioned twice). Bluetooth beacons are all right ish at distance if calibrated and you don't get a lot of radio wave problems such as fading. Look up tables are instead a bodge at calibration. The rest of what you've written is trivial.

You can improve RSSI distance estimates, it's what the people working for the government were trying to do. It's not arguably that hard to do, it's just the validation and then testing on the real world we find ourselves in is too demanding.

At 3.6 minutes per advert, my battery has drained quite a lot. Oh dear. Not frequent enough adverts and drains the battery like smeg anyway. Ah well.


----------



## midlife (24 Sep 2020)

Silly question..... adverts?


----------



## mjr (24 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Silly question..... adverts?


As in the phone advertising its presence to other phones running the app.


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Silly question..... adverts?



It just means a signal is sent from a device to say I'm here, I'm here. From that you do stuff that Stowie calls 'complicated' and I don't and you can infer distance i.e. that something is around roughly 3 metres as opposed to being out of range or 10 metres away.

beacons advertise only and a device such as a phone picks up.
The app works by having both phones broadcasting (adverts) and receiving.


----------



## midlife (24 Sep 2020)

Thanks


----------



## Mugshot (24 Sep 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> And talking of 'itching' i'm just itching for some muzzled Stasi type to confront me over my refusal to bow down to this growing police state and wear one! I was nearly there last night in a local supermarket. One pleb glared at me(well it seemed so,even though i could only see half a face). 'Come on,bring it on'! was the telepathic message i sent to the pleb,but i think my steel tipped walking cane might've deterred an aggressive advance.


This "pleb", how old, did they look like they could handle themselves? Your sudden desire to go all Marquess of Queensberry on some random stranger's ass doesn't quite ring true, tooled up or not.


----------



## mjr (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> At 3.6 minutes per advert, my battery has drained quite a lot. Oh dear. Not frequent enough adverts and drains the battery like smeg anyway. Ah well.


What is "quite a lot" in % or mAh?


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> What is "quite a lot" in % or mAh?



I'll run it all day tomorrow and see. But it got up to 1.1% and that was with bluetooth turned off later and it scanning for 30 mins and the rest of the time bluetooth turned off and the app in the background. I only installed it about 5 hours ago. That suggests to me it could easily get above 5% battery usage per day as it was going up highest when scanning (can see on the battery graph). I guess if it's switched off and scanning for useful periods the 5% figure I've seen others mention may be realistic. I would have expected a more frequent advert for that drainage.

There's nothing particularly wrong with that bodged battery drainage, but it has been tested for six months!


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Midnight that's right remember now you can also delete your visit recored yourself. Contact history you can't though.



I went into manage my data and it may be a glitch.

It's now been edited to approximately the end time I tried to scan a second time and it say do you want to login and I pressed cancel. The times had also been edited so it's been rounded to the nearest 15 mins before I went in and after the nearest 15 mins when I left.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> And did they find any COVID?



Not that type of COVID teat


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (24 Sep 2020)

Top response from the Italian president about Johnson's attempt to blame runaway infections on Brits being freedom-loving people.

''We Italians also love freedom, but we also care about seriousness.''


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I went into manage my data and it may be a glitch.
> 
> It's now been edited to approximately the end time I tried to scan a second time and it say do you want to login and I pressed cancel. The times had also been edited so it's been rounded to the nearest 15 mins before I went in and after the nearest 15 mins when I left.



How many others would be willing to try and see what went wrong? Is the question Mrs 73 has just set it up and now she can't get the thing to turn off. So works going to be fun tomorrow be picking up all over the place given how busy the carpark is. 
The new covid secure memo looks to have missed M and S just been in and it's still no room to swig a cat. They have now got a T&T code but you can't get to it a display stand is in the way. Oh well things can only get better.


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

This is not great and show how big a mess the public messaging is. 
Study finds https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.15.20191957v1.full.pdf
Just less than 50% know the key symptoms, 18% with symptoms isolate, 11% when contacted isolate, 13% go for a test


----------



## Rusty Nails (24 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Not that type of COVID teat



Well they can't expect to be breastfed the results.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Sep 2020)

Sticky blood from blood clots to COVID 19

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000mr5s


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

Morrisons now limiting sale of toilet rolls 
What wrong with people will they ever learn


----------



## Accy cyclist (24 Sep 2020)

vickster said:


> What a big clever brave man you are





Mugshot said:


> This "pleb", how old, did they look like they could handle themselves? Your sudden desire to go all Marquess of Queensberry on some random stranger's ass doesn't quite ring true, tooled up or not.



Did i mention the size of the Stasi type? 🤔No i didn't.  He was a porker,probably about 18 stone,compared to my 10.5 stone in weight. He probably saw me as an easy target for his attempt at forcing everyone to bleat from the same hymn sheet as himself.


----------



## vickster (24 Sep 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Did i mention the size of the Stasi type? 🤔No i didn't.  He was a porker,probably about 18 stone,compared to my 10.5 stone in weight. He probably saw me as an easy target for his attempt at forcing everyone to bleat from the same hymn sheet as himself.


Yeah but you’re the ultimate hard man with your stick surely?


----------



## raleighnut (24 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Sticky blood from blood clots to COVID 19
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000mr5s


I'd listen but I'm not giving the BBC my address, e-Mail etc.


----------



## Tanis8472 (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Morrisons now limiting sale of toilet rolls
> What wrong with people will they ever learn



We put a cap on ours yesterday. We saw it start on Monday. One customer tried ordering 50 odd cases of rolls. Wholesale btw.
Tossers.


----------



## Tanis8472 (24 Sep 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Did i mention the size of the Stasi type? 🤔No i didn't.  He was a porker,probably about 18 stone,compared to my 10.5 stone in weight. He probably saw me as an easy target for his attempt at forcing everyone to bleat from the same hymn sheet as himself.



How lovely to describe someone as a porker.


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

All students living in halls in Scotland now been told they can't go home. The thinking sounds to be Once you move to halls that's a household parents home seen as a different household. Different household mixing is now illegal in Scotland.


----------



## Accy cyclist (24 Sep 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> How lovely to describe someone as a porker.


Yes,and he had a full to the brim shopping trolley to boot. Gluttony and 'i'm alright Jack' panic buying rolled into one!


----------



## DCLane (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> This is not great and show how big a mess the public messaging is.
> Study finds https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.15.20191957v1.full.pdf
> Just less than 50% know the key symptoms, 18% with symptoms isolate, 11% when contacted isolate, 13% go for a test



Given the level of publicity there's been it shows how many just can't think for themselves. There's no excuse - stupid is as stupid does I'm afraid.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (24 Sep 2020)

So, while I'm still humming and haing about the NHS app and whether all the security issues have been sorted out, I get to the Taproom and find that my phone QR won't read the entry barcode until I've downloaded the NHS app. So I had to do it the pen and paper way. 

That's a sneaky way to try to force people to download it. It's not making me feel better about it either


----------



## Beebo (24 Sep 2020)

Highest ever recorder number of cases today. 
6634. 
back in March the testing was too poor to properly record the real number of cases, so it’s probably not that high but it’s clearly going in the wrong direction.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> This is not great and show how big a mess the public messaging is.
> Study finds https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.15.20191957v1.full.pdf
> Just less than 50% know the key symptoms, 18% with symptoms isolate, 11% when contacted isolate, 13% go for a test


So 89% of people told to isolate, don't? That's not a fault in public messaging, that's people just not giving a toss about others.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Sep 2020)

.


Joey Shabadoo said:


> That's not a fault in public messaging, that's people just not giving a toss about others.



That's not an intelligent comment, that's just lazy rhetoric intended to make the writer feel superior. 

*Why* do they behave like this?
*What* should be different to help them make the right choices?
*Where* in the world do people do the right thing and *what* can we learn from their approach?


----------



## Rusty Nails (24 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> 
> That's not an intelligent comment, that's just lazy rhetoric intended to make the writer feel superior.
> ...



Those are all nice, touchy feely questions to ask that could be valid if we had a couple of years to examine them fully, come up with answers, and implement the recommendations, changing the behaviours of a large part of the UK population.

But we don't so people have every right to call those who don't self-isolate if they have symptoms anything they wish.

Neither your approach, nor Joey's, will make any practical difference in the short term in this pandemic so do whatever floats your boat.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Sep 2020)

It's probably what's informed the decision to impose £10,000 fines on those refusing to self-isolate. If they don't care about others, maybe they'll care about money.


----------



## steve292 (24 Sep 2020)

Mugshot said:


> This "pleb", how old, did they look like they could handle themselves? Your sudden desire to go all Marquess of Queensberry on some random stranger's ass doesn't quite ring true, tooled up or not.


Especially when there are numerous threads started by the poster of him running to the Police, housing associations et al, when someone looks at him funny.


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> 
> That's not an intelligent comment, that's just lazy rhetoric intended to make the writer feel superior.
> ...


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Those are all nice, touchy feely questions to ask that could be valid if we had a couple of years to examine them fully, come up with answers, and implement the recommendations, changing the behaviours of a large part of the UK population.
> 
> But we don't so people have every right to call those who don't self-isolate if they have symptoms anything they wish.
> 
> Neither your approach, nor Joey's, will make any practical difference in the short term in this pandemic so do whatever floats your boat.


You don’t need years it’s simple basic social science. Plenty of it around and plenty of counties have had better results. Not had to see what we can learn and implement.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (24 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Those are all nice, touchy feely questions to ask that could be valid if we had a couple of years to examine them fully



No, they are essential to answer if you actually want to improve things rather than virtue signal.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> So, while I'm still humming and haing about the NHS app and whether all the security issues have been sorted out, I get to the Taproom and find that my phone QR won't read the entry barcode until I've downloaded the NHS app. So I had to do it the pen and paper way.
> 
> That's a sneaky way to try to force people to download it. It's not making me feel better about it either



The bar code is only of use to the app. It makes no sense to scan it with a different app.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (24 Sep 2020)

I can confirm that the nhs contact app remind to turn back on feature does work on Android Pie on my phone. It’s still off.


----------



## Rusty Nails (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> You don’t need years it’s simple basic social science. Plenty of it around and plenty of counties have had better results. Not had to see what we can learn and implement.




To get something working effectively on a national basis is not as simple as saying it works well in "plenty of counties" and replicating it.

Which counties have few problems with people not self-isolating when they should and what exactly are those counties doing that others aren't? Phrases like 'basic social science' are easy to trot out but any solution that will work nationally needs a more detailed plan of action and time to implement and cure the bad habits of large numbers of people.

Problems are easy to resolve on paper, it's when they involve people it gets difficult.


----------



## Rusty Nails (24 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> No, they are essential to answer if you actually want to improve things rather than virtue signal.



I think there's enough virtue-signalling going on in this forum already.

I do not disagree with your questions, just the practicality of answering them within the timescales needed.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (24 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The bar code is only of use to the app. It makes no sense to scan it with a different app.


I have used the QR gubbins in another brewpub with no problems nor need to download anything, just name and number, order your drinks and food online. This one operates like a monopoly and smells like a diversion of the NHS as a brand, where downloading the app is a precondition of getting served a beer.

(I know the guys so they were fine about letting me do it the old fashioned way.)


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I have used the QR gubbins in another brewpub with no problems nor need to download anything, just name and number, order your drinks and food online. This one operates like a monopoly and smells like a diversion of the NHS as a brand, where downloading the app is a precondition of getting served a beer.
> 
> (I know the guys so they were fine about letting me do it the old fashioned way.)



It is the NHS through the government that mandate that there has to be the ability for pen and paper. Not the pub. It is also mandated that service is refused with no contact tracing. I got asked three times by staff the last time I went in a pub.

If it was up to some pubs, well we saw three months of that...


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

DCLane said:


> Given the level of publicity there's been it shows how many just can't think for themselves. There's no excuse - stupid is as stupid does I'm afraid.


Our county must be full of block heads then. Other counties have not had half as many issues as us. Public health need clear , simple, and consistent messaging. Other counties worked that out and it’s paid off. If a HCP is unsure if someone they manage needs a test then that’s not down to being thick. We can’t equally put it all down to not giving a stuff either.
Most of the data that wolund help improve the situation the government don’t even collect the little they do collect they make pubic.


----------



## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

Dumbassery from the scottish unis and scottish government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54285720

Students don't go to pubs, restaurants or parties.

All right, well if it's such a high risk then close the pubs. Utter farkwittery.


----------



## mjr (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Dumbassery from the scottish unis and scottish government.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54285720
> 
> ...


Indeed. I suspect some student halls are effectively "worker dormitories" which the evidence seems to suggest is a very high risk place to be. The bans seem a bit arbitrary - couldn't they just be encouraged to sit outside, instead?

There's also this worrying bit: "Students will also be required to download the Protect Scotland app" - now everywhere is a police state, forcing leaky battery-monster tracking software onto your phone?


----------



## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> To get something working effectively on a national basis is not as simple as saying it works well in "plenty of counties" and replicating it.
> 
> Which counties have few problems with people not self-isolating when they should and what exactly are those counties doing that others aren't? Phrases like 'basic social science' are easy to trot out but any solution that will work nationally needs a more detailed plan of action and time to implement and cure the bad habits of large numbers of people.
> 
> Problems are easy to resolve on paper, it's when they involve people it gets difficult.


Yes it is in fact we already have contact tracing that works and has been for years. Ran and implemented by local professionals who know the community and know what messaging works. Which is what other counties have continued to use and invest in. We just handed the whole lot to Serco who have no background in public health or experience of contact tracing. In one go cutting of local informed , experienced professionals. Even simple stuff is missed like much of the updated guidelines have not been made available in different languages. We can’t even manage simple effective public health messaging. Which is well known to work. We don’t even ask why people are asking for a test. Like did they get told if so who , did they feel like having one , if so why 
Disabled people have been turned away for testing as no one thought how can they do the test themselves. We have decades of research and information on how people do thing and why. We know what works and with which groups of people. Plenty on how society works. I know I sent years studying them. The government just is not involving experts who can explain it or look at what’s not working. They just want to play the blame game and wash hands of any of it.


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## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Dumbassery from the scottish unis and scottish government.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54285720
> 
> ...


It’s a bit simplistic at best to stop some but let everyone else in.

With the growing mess in Scotland and odds on it’s going to happen here. It’s hoped unis have got mental health support bang on.Too many have not been on the ball and we seen enough inquests that show what happens when they get it wrong


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## Rusty Nails (24 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Yes it is in fact we already have contact tracing that works and has been for years. Ran and implemented by local professionals who know the community and know what messaging works. Which is what other counties have continued to use and invest in. We just handed the whole lot to Serco who have no background in public health or experience of contact tracing. In one go cutting of local informed , experienced professionals. Even simple stuff is missed like much of the updated guidelines have not been made available in different languages. We can’t even manage simple effective public health messaging. Which is well known to work. We don’t even ask why people are asking for a test. Like did they get told if so who , did they feel like having one , if so why
> Disabled people have been turned away for testing as no one thought how can they do the test themselves. We have decades of research and information on how people do thing and why. We know what works and with which groups of people. Plenty on how society works. I know I sent years studying them. The government just is not involving experts who can explain it or look at what’s not working. They just want to play the blame game and wash hands of any of it.



You keep mentioning other counties. I assume you mean countries.

I agree with you that our approach to testing and contact tracing as a country has been very poor. You will not see me congratulating this government on their handling of the pandemic.

What I disagree with you on is that it is easy to fix. It should have been done a lot better from the start but it wasn't and now, six months in, to stop doing what we are doing and change it to something more effective is probably beyond this government's abilities.

The government cannot avoid taking the blame for most of the problems with testing and tracing but I also believe a significant element of the fault lies with the general population, too many of whom see these restrictions as a pain and unnecessary, and look for ways to get round them rather than adhere to them.

Nobody comes out of this well.


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## stowie (24 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> It just means a signal is sent from a device to say I'm here, I'm here. From that you do stuff that Stowie calls 'complicated' and I don't and you can infer distance i.e. that something is around roughly 3 metres as opposed to being out of range or 10 metres away.



It is _quite _complicated (link to pdf).


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## classic33 (24 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Indeed. I suspect some student halls are effectively "worker dormitories" which the evidence seems to suggest is a very high risk place to be. The bans seem a bit arbitrary - couldn't they just be encouraged to sit outside, instead?
> 
> There's also this worrying bit: "Students will also be required to download the Protect Scotland app" - *now everywhere is a police state, forcing leaky battery-monster tracking software onto your phone?*


Or be forced to carry a card that gave you permission/the right to walk on a particular stretch of public highway.

Did that in 2001. Still got stopped and asked why was I there. And when it was all over, I clearly recall hearing that never again will such measures have to be taken. Well, it's 2020 and nature has proved them wrong.

Just get rid of the phone if it bothers you that much. Buy one that can't take the "monster-battery tracking software".


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## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

Most interesting study for a good while

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...une-defects-may-impair-ability-fight-covid-19


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## marinyork (24 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> It is _quite _complicated (link to pdf).









God knows what you'd make of Lovett or more complicated papers than that then. If you're going to make silly points, at least do it about papers I haven't read.


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## tom73 (24 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> You keep mentioning other counties. I assume you mean countries.
> 
> I agree with you that our approach to testing and contact tracing as a country has been very poor. You will not see me congratulating this government on their handling of the pandemic.
> 
> ...


Oh yes I do the that’s what typing on a phone gets me. We don’t need to start over to make things work. Though the government tried it By smashing up PHE. They Just need to put the right people in place and use the public health professionals. We have and not sideline them. We already know the local approach is working. NHS local bits are already out performing the serco bits. On tracing and have been for some time. Without a quick turn around in public confidence even people who want to do the right thing. Will walk away and then we really are stuffed. Only the government can fix that one.


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## Tanis8472 (25 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Oh yes I do the that’s what typing on a phone gets me. We don’t need to start over to make things work. Though the government tried it By smashing up PHE. They Just need to put the right people in place and use the public health professionals. We have and not sideline them. We already know the local approach is working. NHS local bits are already out performing the serco bits. On tracing and have been for some time. Without a quick turn around in public confidence even people who want to do the right thing. Will walk away and then we really are stuffed. Only the government can fix that one.



I'm beginning to fall into that camp.
I'm looking at this very selfishly because most folk around here don't seem to give a fark. Still got groups of people congregating, ganger buses full with no face coverings, groups of 50 odd kids all playing on the new skate park, work colleagues and customers not following distancing.

I'm doing all I can to protect myself and the Mrs and others where I can.

Edited to Correct autocorrect


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## tom73 (25 Sep 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> I'm beginning to fall into that camp.
> I'm looking at this very selfishly because most folk around here don't seem to give a fark. Still got groups of people congregating, ganger buses full with the face coverings, groups of 50 odd kids all playing on the new skate park, work colleagues and customers not following distancing.
> 
> I'm doing all I can to protect myself and the Mrs and others where I can.


It's hard at times on all of us when you see the mess others are making of all this. We just have to keep going then at least we can look back and say we tried.


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## raleighnut (25 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Our county must be full of block heads then. Other counties have not had half as many issues as us. Public health need clear , simple, and consistent messaging. Other counties worked that out and it’s paid off. If a HCP is unsure if someone they manage needs a test then that’s not down to being thick. We can’t equally put it all down to not giving a stuff either.
> Most of the data that wolund help improve the situation the government don’t even collect the little they do collect they make pubic.


Yep I've come to the conclusion that there are a lot of selfish thickos in this country, the same mentality that leads them to overtake cyclists then stop at traffic lights shortly after.


----------



## pawl (25 Sep 2020)

Tanis8472 said:


> I'm beginning to fall into that camp.
> I'm looking at this very selfishly because most folk around here don't seem to give a fark. Still got groups of people congregating, ganger buses full with the face coverings, groups of 50 odd kids all playing on the new skate park, work colleagues and customers not following distancing.
> 
> I'm doing all I can to protect myself and the Mrs and others where I can.




Are the uni halls of residence going to become the new areas of infection instead of the EPH?


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## midlife (25 Sep 2020)

pawl said:


> Are the uni halls of residence going to become the new areas of infection instead of the EPH?



3 dental centres for the training of dental students have closed because of positive tests among the students.


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## stowie (25 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> View attachment 548984
> 
> 
> God knows what you'd make of Lovett or more complicated papers than that then. If you're going to make silly points, at least do it about papers I haven't read. You are srw AICMFP.



OK I'll bite.

Link to the paper you mention. I will have a read.

Lookup tables. Cannot find any mention of lookup tables on the GAEN API documentation online but would be interested to understand why you think a lookup table helps here. Link if the information is online. I am struggling to understand how a lookup table would help really help resolve the physics challenges of measuring distance via blootooth. The GAEN code is closed source and it appears the actual functionality is not really described in detail on public information releases. Maybe this information is disclosed to registered health care providers only.

I am genuinely interested here - I some background in this area and would like to know, our of curiosity, how well the techniques actually approximate distance. Not least because this would have applications outside COVID apps as well.


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## tom73 (25 Sep 2020)

pawl said:


> Are the uni halls of residence going to become the new areas of infection instead of the EPH?


NUS before uni's went back said they feared Uni's would become just that in any seconded wave. It's not hard to see this would happen uni's every year get outbreaks of infectious disease. How they thought a highly infectious disease that is so suited to mass groups would be any different is bonkers. The rush to get students back looks to have been largely both political and driven by academic snobbery of distance learning.


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## tom73 (25 Sep 2020)

New ONS figures are not looking good. They show Covid now in 1 in 500 households. Up from 1 in 900 last week


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## DaveReading (25 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> New ONS figures are not looking good. They show Covid now in 1 in 500 households. Up from 1 in 900 last week



So the number of households that were newly infected last week was almost as high as the total number that had been previously infected ?

Bloody hell.


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## midlife (25 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> New ONS figures are not looking good. They show Covid now in 1 in 500 households. Up from 1 in 900 last week



Is that 1 in 500 people ? if so then there are more people than households which makes it worse?


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## marinyork (25 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Is that 1 in 500 people ? if so then there are more people than households which makes it worse?



1 in 500 people. Around 9,600 infections per day.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26


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## tom73 (25 Sep 2020)

Yes people was going on early reporting that interrupted it as households. 
London now on the watch list as cases up, admissions up, ICU number up. 
3 new areas in Wales going into local restrictions and Leeds is expecting the same some time today.


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## marinyork (25 Sep 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> Is it really necessary to clog up this thread with these silly personal jibes?



The problem with cyclechat is that the last ten years there are a lot of extremely high paid people in jobs who are worshipped as Gods and they think that in the rest of their lives, family, friends and random strangers on cyclechat should treat them the same with the same awe and reverence as they get in their day jobs. They also think they can throw their weight around. I'm not going to treat him as a God if he's being deliberately patronising. I did politely try to explain 3x one of the points and each time it was ignored and deliberately misrepresented with a ah yes, but I'm really fecking clever as I'm in a senior high tech job and I'm going to assume you know nothing.

Knobbery and knavery.


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## roubaixtuesday (25 Sep 2020)

Everything looking increasingly grim.

Lest anyone try to claim this couldn't have been predicted, from yours truly, dated Aug 28th:

_Currently our case numbers have been rising week on week for some time.

I hear on the radio that govt are going to run an advertising campaign to get people back to offices due to the effect of low foot fall on city centres.

But surely, if cases are rising, we need to take action to reduce transmission, not actions which will increase it, particularly with the return of schools too. I genuinely don't understand govt strategy._

And here we are. 

It takes far longer to reduce cases than for them to rise. The last month has been a complete policy clusterfùck, so now we're condemned to yet another unnecessarily long prolonged period of restrictions. 

And many more corpses. 

And more bankruptcies and redundancies. 

The useless narcissists, ideologues and dilettantes in charge of this would hang their heads in shame, if they were capable of such feelings. 

Get the farking test and trace system working. FFS!!


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## Low Gear Guy (25 Sep 2020)

It is now too late to stop the second phase and I am not expecting things to permanently improve before Easter. In the meantime we should all keep healthy, help others and reduce our social interactions to the point just above where we go mad.

There was a window of opportunity in the summer to prepare for this but the government was on holiday at the time.


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## Mo1959 (25 Sep 2020)

Maybe it would be better just to let all the fit and healthy students get Covid and be done with......sort of mini herd immunity, then when it comes to end of term they will be safe to visit home knowing they have had it. Even then, it’s still not obvious how long immunity lasts for


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## mjr (25 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The useless narcissists, ideologues and dilettantes in charge


But "the conservative and unionist party" sounds so much snappier!



Low Gear Guy said:


> In the meantime we should all keep healthy, help others and reduce our social interactions to the point just above where we go mad.


Ah whoops. So that's what I've been doing wrong


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## mjr (25 Sep 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Maybe it would be better just to let all the fit and healthy students get Covid and be done with......sort of mini herd immunity, then when it comes to end of term they will be safe to visit home knowing they have had it. Even then, it’s still not obvious how long immunity lasts for


Or the extent of immunity against different strains.

Or how many survive the 28 days but suffer long covid complications.

Or shed loads of other unknowns.

Plus when we're dealing with thousands (millions?) of students, even a fraction of a percent deaths is a big number.

It would be a very high risk strategy for an uncertain reward compared to control, treatment and delay until a vaccine.


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## Ming the Merciless (25 Sep 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Maybe it would be better just to let all the fit and healthy students get Covid and be done with......sort of mini herd immunity, then when it comes to end of term they will be safe to visit home knowing they have had it. Even then, it’s still not obvious how long immunity lasts for



If they could be kept separate from more vulnerable folks there’s something in that. It’s keeping separate is the issue, and you can’t hold them prisoner.


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## tom73 (25 Sep 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Maybe it would be better just to let all the fit and healthy students get Covid and be done with......sort of mini herd immunity, then when it comes to end of term they will be safe to visit home knowing they have had it. Even then, it’s still not obvious how long immunity lasts for


Not sure that's what they paid to go to uni for. Don't think any uni ran the "come to use and catch a high infectious , unpredictable deadly disease" advertising campaign. Even mild cases can go to develop Long Covid and be effected for mouths. Some are now into 6 mouths of suffering. We still don't know what the long term health effects of covid are. It's still possible that some the current students will require hospital admission. That won't come clear until each case get's to around day 12 and possible death around a month later. 
The bottom line is sadly community transmissions don't stay put and will become wide spread.


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## tom73 (25 Sep 2020)

Calling HCP's online self-study course on covid-19 recovery and rehabilitation now available. 
https://www.e-lfh.org.uk/programmes/covid-19-recovery-and-rehabilitation/


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## Rezillo (25 Sep 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> There was a window of opportunity in the summer to prepare for this but the government was on holiday at the time.



I could scream. The summer breather was bought at huge personal and financial cost but the government has utterly blown the time it was given.


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## tom73 (25 Sep 2020)

Rezillo said:


> I could scream. The summer breather was bought at huge personal and financial cost but the government has utterly blown the time it was given.


Tell me about it remind me how long did the clowns in the big top get for summer jollies ? All that work and effect all that loss of life and for what ?


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## DaveReading (25 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Don't think any uni ran the "come to use and catch a high infectious , unpredictable deadly disease" advertising campaign.



No, I don't remember that campaign either.

And I also seem to have missed the "come to uni, behave irresponsibly and thereby increase your chances of catching/passing on the virus" campaign. But by all accounts, at least some students seem to be doing their best to make that so.


----------



## stowie (25 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> The problem with cyclechat is that the last ten years there are a lot of extremely high paid people in jobs who are worshipped as Gods and they think that in the rest of their lives, family, friends and random strangers on cyclechat should treat them the same with the same awe and reverence as they get in their day jobs. They also think they can throw their weight around. I'm not going to treat him as a God if he's being deliberately patronising. I did politely try to explain 3x one of the points and each time it was ignored and deliberately misrepresented with a ah yes, but I'm really fecking clever as I'm in a senior high tech job and I'm going to assume you know nothing.
> 
> Knobbery and knavery.



I dip in and out of CC when I have a bit of a coffee break during the day (or typically waiting for something to download). I miss posts, and forget others. I noted your reference to lookup tables, but was a bit confused over it, so looked at the API docs to see more details and couldn't find it. So I am probably missing something here.

I asked if you can link to the Lovett information which you referenced as I am genuinely interested in how accuracy is achieved using Bluetooth and have some background which means I could probably grasp at least some of the basics. 

I like CC because people tend to be polite. If my writing style comes off as patronising it isn't intended that way. I have found personal attacks to be really rare on CC and really try not to do it intentionally or otherwise. 

Anyway, my initial post simply was intended to express surprise that bluetooth could provide the type of accuracy detailed in the bbc report which had a diagram of the zones. I am curious how this might work.

As for being treated like a God at my work. If only it was true..!


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## mjr (25 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Tell me about it remind me how long did the clowns in the big top get for summer jollies ? All that work and effect all that loss of life and for what ?


Which reminds me that there's a circus in Wisbech. No, I don't know how that's possible either: enclosed space and lots of shouting even if with more space between groups in the audience.


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## stowie (25 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Which reminds me that there's a circus in Wisbech. No, I don't know how that's possible either: enclosed space and lots of shouting even if with more space between groups in the audience.



I went to a circus a couple month or so ago. Careful seating arrangements and no audience participation aside from clapping, none of the acts interacted with the audience at close range and their performance area was well set back. Not sure if this was hugely safe in terms of virus transmission but they had changed their acts to minimise risk. It did feel quite strange.

They said at the end of the performance that every member of the circus, from all around the world, had isolated together so they could perform again as soon as possible at least risk to the public. They clearly are having a tough time during COVID.


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## tom73 (25 Sep 2020)

On the subject of how safe situations are and now we have growing number of cases. 
It's worth giving this another shout out within hours it become the most requested article the BMJ has ever had. 
Two metres or one: what is the evidence for physical distancing in covid-19?
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223
Has a simple to understand table of situations and risk inc effect of ventilation.
Print it off and stick on the fridge it's been translated into most languages even a colour blind vision. If you need one just ask.


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## Adam4868 (25 Sep 2020)

Sorry but this latest ad just about sums the governments response up...lol


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## tom73 (25 Sep 2020)

Trinity College has threaten to evict students from halls if they get a covid outbreak. 
That's going to fix it and help keep everyone safe.
https://www.theguardian.com/educati...-evict-students-if-a-covid-19-outbreak-occurs


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Sep 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Maybe it would be better just to let all the fit and healthy students get Covid and be done with......sort of mini herd immunity, then when it comes to end of term they will be safe to visit home knowing they have had it. Even then, it’s still not obvious how long immunity lasts for



Replace the word "students" with "general population" and the pandemic will be over and done with a hell of a lot sooner. Some people just seem to want to drag it out for as long as possible. The control freaks just need to take a reality pill and accept that trying to prevent infectious diseases spreading in non-totalitarian societies is as futile as herding cats. This virus isn't going to stop until it's transmission medium gradually becomes too inefficient to sustain it, and that is only going to happen with widespread post-infection immunity.


----------



## mjr (25 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Sorry but this latest ad just about sums the governments response up...lol
> View attachment 549113


When is 20pm?


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## mjr (25 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> and that is only going to happen with widespread post-infection immunity.


Or there could be a vaccine. Or a less deadly mutation of the virus which out competes the current one. Or...

In short, we don't know how this will end. Anyone saying there is "only" a particular outcome is claiming to see the future.


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## tom73 (25 Sep 2020)

A deliberate “population immunity” strategy before a vaccine: Why it wouldn’t work and why it shouldn’t be tried
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/population_immunity_FINALb.pdf


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## classic33 (25 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Replace the word "students" with "general population" and the pandemic will be over and done with a hell of a lot sooner. Some people just seem to want to drag it out for as long as possible. The control freaks just need to take a reality pill and accept that trying to prevent infectious diseases spreading in non-totalitarian societies is as futile as herding cats. This virus isn't going to stop until it's transmission medium gradually becomes too inefficient to sustain it, and that is only going to happen with widespread post-infection immunity.


There's no proof that catching it once, herd immunity, would give any protection let alone how long for, if caught. No proof either that if caught once, you'd not catch it again.

If, and that's a big if, how will widespread immunity ever be guaranteed? How do you intend to offer that guarantee.

If folk believe that having caught it once makes them immune to further infection, there's a high chance they'll just go back to the way they were doing things before they caught it. Quite possibly spreading it amongst those who can't afford to chance catching it.

Basic personal hygiene has gone out the window. Bring that back under control first, and we're in with some chance.


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Sep 2020)

You're on to a loser here, just accept it. People don't like lockdowns or other enforced disruptions to their routines. They'll tolerate it to an extent for a short period, so long as there's a clear end date. What they won't do is accept an open-ended and ever-changing regime of government interference in their lives. The first lockdown went on far too long and people had had enough of it. A large percentage of them are not now going to co-operate or play ball in any meaningful way with any further measures. They've had enough and they're just going to give the politicians and the "experts" the middle finger.
@marinyork at least seems to "get it" as regards public behaviour, even if he might not agree with the things they do or don't do. A lot of you just have the attitude that because you're happy to believe in and lap up whatever crap the government serves up, that we should all do the same. Well, that just ain't happening I can assure you of that!


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## classic33 (25 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You're on to a loser here, just accept it. People don't like lockdowns or other enforced disruptions to their routines. They'll tolerate it to an extent for a short period, so long as there's a clear end date. What they won't do is accept an open-ended and ever-changing regime of government interference in their lives. The first lockdown went on far too long and people had had enough of it. A large percentage of them are not now going to co-operate or play ball in any meaningful way with any further measures. They've had enough and they're just going to give the politicians and the "experts" the middle finger.
> @marinyork at least seems to "get it" as regards public behaviour, even if he might not agree with the things they do or don't do. A lot of you just have the attitude that because you're happy to believe in and lap up whatever crap the government serves up, that we should all do the same. Well, that just ain't happening I can assure you of that!


Enforced disruptions to a routine!
I've two new ones that have completely disrupted my routine, and I know I'm not alone with either.

You don't know my beliefs on the current situation, don't assume you do. I'm just waiting for some sort of "normal" to return, to allow for my now normal routine to get going again. I'm looking at long-term health treatment getting started again. Selfish I know, but there's thousands more like me.

Is that too much to expect in this day and age?


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## tom73 (25 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> There's no proof that catching it once, herd immunity, would give any protection let alone how long for, if caught. No proof either that if caught once, you'd not catch it again.
> 
> If, and that's a big if, how will widespread immunity ever be guaranteed? How do you intend to offer that guarantee.
> 
> ...



If they really believe either this is just like flu, it only kills the old or once you get it you're fine. They can always try it and sign up for the vaccine trail. Once challenger trails start they have to give you Covid 1st. Guess the idea of helping mankind would be too much to take.


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## classic33 (25 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> If they really believe either this is just like flu, it only kills the old or once you get it you're fine. They can always try it and sign up for the vaccine trail. Once challenger trails start they have to give you Covid 1st. Guess the idea of helping mankind would be too much to take.


I've been told that any vaccine, should one be developed, won't be given to me. Just like a load of other routine, for others, vaccines. 

Wonder how many of those who have advocated the herd immunity, on here, will sign up for the trials.


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> If they really believe either this is just like flu, it only kills the old or once you get it you're fine. They can always try it and sign up for the vaccine trail. Once challenger trails start they have to give you Covid 1st. Guess the idea of helping mankind would be too much to take.



It wouldn't bother me being infected with it, as I reckon I've already had it anyway early this year. I'm surprised they haven't asked for volunteers to be deliberately infected with the virus then paid their wages to self-isolate for a couple of weeks. That would soon get the immunity rates up. No doubt all the do-gooders will come out of the woodwork and say it's unethical to actively give someone an infection - but I don't see the problem if they volunteer.


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## classic33 (25 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> It wouldn't bother me being infected with it, as I reckon I've already had it anyway early this year. I'm surprised they haven't asked for volunteers to be deliberately infected with the virus then paid their wages to self-isolate for a couple of weeks. That would soon get the immunity rates up. No doubt all the do-gooders will come out of the woodwork and say it's unethical to actively give someone an infection - but I don't see the problem if they volunteer.


Nows your chance to step forward and gain immunity
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54275096

Have you ever volunteered for medication trials, I have.


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## PK99 (25 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> *Our county must be full of block heads *then. Other counties have not had half as many issues as us. Public health need clear , simple, and consistent messaging. Other counties worked that out and it’s paid off. If a HCP is unsure if someone they manage needs a test then that’s not down to being thick. We can’t equally put it all down to not giving a stuff either.
> Most of the data that wolund help improve the situation the government don’t even collect the little they do collect they make pubic.



My two daughters currently live in Vancouver.

There bars and restaurants closed voluntarily before any lockdown, people social distanced before any official announcement requiring it.
They report no kick-back against any of the restrictions

Given the UK "rush to the pub before they lock us down" and the refusal of too many to comply, yes, I think you are right: Our county must be full of block heads


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## SkipdiverJohn (25 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> Given the UK "rush to the pub before they lock us down" and the refusal of too many to comply, yes, I think you are right: Our county must be full of block heads



A lot comes down to how much trust or distrust the public have in the government or in politics generally. In this country, political hypocrisy, incompetence, double standards, and generally unsavoury behaviour are widespread and the default public response to any policy any politician tries to promote is derision, scepticism, and outright hostility. If politicians were trusted and respected, then the plebs might be more minded to play the game. But the political establishment is despised, so it's "up yours mate, you're all a load of crooks anyway"


----------



## marinyork (25 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> @marinyork at least seems to "get it" as regards public behaviour, even if he might not agree with the things they do or don't do. A lot of you just have the attitude that because you're happy to believe in and lap up whatever crap the government serves up, that we should all do the same. Well, that just ain't happening I can assure you of that!



There are some areas that from the behavioural point of view, not medical point of view are extremely problematic and not really talked about much. One is the government calling it self isolation rather than what it really is which is quarantine. The second aspect which is more important is the length of time. So originally people were self isolating for 7 days earlier in the pandemic, now people are told to observe much stricter measures not leaving the grounds of a property at all and for 10 days or 14 days depending on how whether it's a test or someone believed to come in contact with someone who tested positive (although some others can leave depending on circumstances but let's not get into that). This just looks complete nonsense to the population and aside from economics and other factors will be why only 20% of people were sticking to it.

People might get very upset about writing that, until they realise that France had an open debate about it and then recently reduced quarantine from 14 days to 7, for the same reasoning. That's not encouraging people not to quarantine, it's something that's clearly not working and difficult to make to work with higher than 20% of people sticking to it.

------------------------------

I believe a lot of the stuff the public was told at the start has stuck in their heads and has a greater weight than anything said since around June. So washing hands, worrying about sanitiser being around, think of it as a mild illness in most people (interesting with the long covid debate). Early comments talking about herd immunity. Early comments talking about immunity. The only exception to this is masks where that one came much later and people have taken on board. Probably because of those daily political press conferences why people stopped listening, among other reasons.

It is difficult to get a population to do anything for more than a few weeks and I agree that the moving goalposts make it vastly harder.


----------



## PK99 (25 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> On the subject of how safe situations are and now we have growing number of cases.
> It's worth giving this another shout out within hours it become the most requested article the BMJ has ever had.
> Two metres or one: what is the evidence for physical distancing in covid-19?
> https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223
> ...



OFFFS!

"Wear a mask" is clearly too difficult for too many to understand and too controversial for many others to wish to comply.

This table is amost the definition of TLDNR!


----------



## PK99 (25 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> There are some areas that from the behavioural point of view, not medical point of view are extremely problematic and not really talked about much. One is the government calling it self isolation rather than what it really is which is quarantine. The second aspect which is more important is the length of time. So originally people were self isolating for 7 days earlier in the pandemic, now people are told to observe much stricter measures not leaving the grounds of a property at all and for 10 days or 14 days depending on how whether it's a test or someone believed to come in contact with someone who tested positive (although some others can leave depending on circumstances but let's not get into that). This just looks complete nonsense to the population and aside from economics and other factors will be why only 20% of people were sticking to it.
> 
> People might get very upset about writing that, until they realise that France had an open debate about it and then recently reduced quarantine from 14 days to 7, for the same reasoning. That's not encouraging people not to quarantine, it's something that's clearly not working and difficult to make to work with higher than 20% of people sticking to it.
> 
> ...




We should have adopted the Chinese approach of bricking up entrances or chaining entrance gates to residential compounds.


----------



## classic33 (25 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> A lot comes down to how much trust or distrust the public have in the government or in politics generally. In this country, political hypocrisy, incompetence, double standards, and generally unsavoury behaviour are widespread and the default public response to any policy any politician tries to promote is derision, scepticism, and outright hostility. If politicians were trusted and respected, then the plebs might be more minded to play the gaame. But the political establishment is despised, so it's "up yours mate, you're all a load of crooks anyway"


I don't trust many of those running pubs. Underage drinkers being served, let alone on the premises by themselves. Some even still in the better part of their school uniforms. Something that has long been illegal.

With that in mind, how are we to trust them to keep simple records, and to a few new minor requirements. Basic hygiene, restrictions on the numbers on the premises, those sort of things.


----------



## marinyork (25 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> We should have adopted the Chinese approach of bricking up entrances or chaining entrance gates to residential compounds.



Well the nearest we've got to that is the reaction to university accommodation. Unfortunately it's such dense accommodation and it'll still go around people in the same 'household' of flats sharing kitchens and bathrooms anyway. In China within household transmission was still very high.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (26 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> We should have adopted the Chinese approach of bricking up entrances or chaining entrance gates to residential compounds.



That's pretty much the policy Kim Jong Sturgeon seems to be persuing in Scotland. Its turning into a proper dictatorship and she's loving every minute of it. To all those SNP voters, enjoy.


----------



## marinyork (26 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> OFFFS!
> 
> "Wear a mask" is clearly too difficult for too many to understand and too controversial for many others to wish to comply.
> 
> This table is almost the definition of TLDNR!



I think that compliance with masks is on the whole pretty good. Distancing has gone out of the window. There is not much 1m+ when wearing masks, let alone 2 metres. Distance is observed far less than the wearing of masks now.


----------



## PK99 (26 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think that compliance with masks is on the whole pretty good. Distancing has gone out of the window. There is not much 1m+ when wearing masks, let alone 2 metres. Distance is observed far less than the wearing of masks now.



That is exactly the argument the Swedish Covid guru put against masks several weeks ago:

Social distancing is the most effective protection, and wearing masks gives an illusion of protection and social distancing is reduced.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (26 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> I don't trust many of those running pubs. Underage drinkers being served, let alone on the premises by themselves. Some even still in the better part of their school uniforms. Something that has long been illegal..



Underage drinking is much less common than it used to be. I used to drink underage, and so did a lot of my peers. We had left school by that time though. It was still illegal back then, too, but often a blind eye was turned so long as you behaved yourself and didn't get pissed. In retrospect underage drinking probably had an overall positive influence on customer behaviour, as if you wanted to be allowed to drink with the adults, you had to learn to behave like one. A lot of todays over-18's are far more of a pain in the arse than the likes of me ever were at 16/17 drinking in pubs.


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## classic33 (26 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Underage drinking is much less common than it used to be. I used to drink underage, and so did a lot of my peers. We had left school by that time though. It was still illegal back then, too, but often a blind eye was turned so long as you behaved yourself and didn't get pissed. In retrospect underage drinking probably had an overall positive influence on customer behaviour, as if you wanted to be allowed to drink with the adults, you had to learn to behave like one. A lot of todays over-18's are far more of a pain in the arse than the likes of me ever were at 16/17 drinking in pubs.


And you drunk, under age, in pubs in the middle of a pandemic when records of who were on the premises were being kept. Or at least when the legal requirement to do so was there?


----------



## PK99 (26 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Underage drinking is much less common than it used to be. I used to drink underage, and so did a lot of my peers. We had left school by that time though. It was still illegal back then, too, but often a blind eye was turned so long as you behaved yourself and didn't get pissed. In retrospect underage drinking probably had an overall positive influence on customer behaviour, as if you wanted to be allowed to drink with the adults, you had to learn to behave like one. A lot of todays over-18's are far more of a pain in the arse than the likes of me ever were at 16/17 drinking in pubs.



My experience also. Pubs were Adult Spaces - to be tolerated us teenagers had to Behave Like Adults.

Part of the problem now wrt social distancing in pubs and bars is that too many are packed with young adults who behave like out of control teenagers.


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## marinyork (26 Sep 2020)

I went to a pub tonight (outside) even though I had thought yesterday would be the last visit to any sort of venue.

The pub had had a covid inspection.

Certainly within some groups if anyone has the virus it'll be passed on to someone else within that group.


----------



## Edwardoka (26 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> It wouldn't bother me being infected with it, as I reckon I've already had it anyway early this year




Rodents infected with the toxoplasma gondii parasite lose all of their fear response around cats, it hijacks their nervous system in order to allow the rodent to be caught and eaten - the parasite predominantly reproduces in the intestines of cats.

In this regard, I reckon your brain has been hijacked by covid for the purposes of spreading covid.


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## SkipdiverJohn (26 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think that compliance with masks is on the whole pretty good. Distancing has gone out of the window. There is not much 1m+ when wearing masks, let alone 2 metres. Distance is observed far less than the wearing of masks now.





PK99 said:


> That is exactly the argument the Swedish Covid guru put against masks several weeks ago:
> 
> Social distancing is the most effective protection, and wearing masks gives an illusion of protection and social distancing is reduced.



My own observation, is that most people will wear a mask in big shops that have a security guard simply because it's less hassle than arguing the toss about it. Small food shops, especially ethnic-owned ones, are a completely different matter. In those, the majority of customers wander around unmasked and no-one, either staff or other customers, gives a toss. 
There's no social distancing observed in either large or small shops, with or without a mask. The ones who have bought into mask wearing think it gives them a protective force field and therefore distance doesn't matter. A lot of people just aren't bothered full stop.
Go and stand outside any mosque at praying time, and witness groups all congregating within touching distance of each other having a good old chat, none of them with masks on. I can honestly say customer behaviour inside the pub is more virus safe than inside shops or out on the street!


----------



## tom73 (26 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> OFFFS!
> 
> "Wear a mask" is clearly too difficult for too many to understand and too controversial for many others to wish to comply.
> 
> ...


Then don't read it then. Clearly you know much more about this then the once who but this together. Some work placers and environments it's not possible to achieve anything reaching the required level of mask use to make placers safe. Equally ventilation has a key role to play in transmission which together with other measures can reduce or increases the risk. Something the government has yet to formally openly talk about. Other than without much fanfare change a few covid secure guidelines. Many simply don't have a choice what environment they work in. Or even live in. It make's perfect sense to provide simple to understand information on the risks and methods of transmission. Again something the government is failing to inform the public. Which is partly why many just don't understand why is ok to do x but not y. Which to the public appear to at odds with why they've been told they can or can't do something. If we had anything reaching simple and informed public health measure then we may have a change of being on the way to fixing this. It's not difficult but clearly not possible for the government.


----------



## pawl (26 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> That's pretty much the policy Kim Jong Sturgeon seems to be persuing in Scotland. Its turning into a proper dictatorship and she's loving every minute of it. To all those SNP voters, enjoy.




Cant say that Sturgeon is my favourite At least she takes appropriate action when required.Boris then follows her lead eventually.


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## Julia9054 (26 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The ones who have bought into mask wearing think it gives them a protective force field and therefore distance doesn't matter.


Queuing in mini Sainsbury's down the aisle this week, a man squeezed past me to reach the back of the queue when the arrows clearly indicated he should walk down the next aisle to reach the back. I said "you could have gone round ". His response was "but I've got a mask on"


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## oldwheels (26 Sep 2020)

Where I live mask wearing is pretty nearly 100% and those not wearing one are told to abide by the rules and distancing is also actively encouraged. Someone who visited Glasgow recently had a different story tho' and said that many if not most seemed to not bother. 
Perhaps that is why we seem to have no current cases here tho' the tourist lovers would try to suppress any information in case it frightened a customer.


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## SkipdiverJohn (26 Sep 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Perhaps that is why we seem to have no current cases here tho' the tourist lovers would try to suppress any information in case it frightened a customer.



As a certain J.Lydon once said, tourists are money. No economic activity, no tourism = no future. Sturgeon doesn't seem to care too much about that though. She will when half the voting population haven't got any paid employment because of her dictatorial and over zealous policy of trying to gold plate any rules coming from Johnson then ratchet them up a gear just to show how "seriously" she's taking it.


----------



## tom73 (26 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> There are some areas that from the behavioural point of view, not medical point of view are extremely problematic and not really talked about much. One is the government calling it self isolation rather than what it really is which is quarantine. The second aspect which is more important is the length of time. So originally people were self isolating for 7 days earlier in the pandemic, now people are told to observe much stricter measures not leaving the grounds of a property at all and for 10 days or 14 days depending on how whether it's a test or someone believed to come in contact with someone who tested positive (although some others can leave depending on circumstances but let's not get into that). This just looks complete nonsense to the population and aside from economics and other factors will be why only 20% of people were sticking to it.
> 
> People might get very upset about writing that, until they realise that France had an open debate about it and then recently reduced quarantine from 14 days to 7, for the same reasoning. That's not encouraging people not to quarantine, it's something that's clearly not working and difficult to make to work with higher than 20% of people sticking to it.
> 
> ...



It's funny that around election time they fall over themselves backwards to really get to understand what message works and how people are engeaginging with it. But when it comes to situations like this which really do need to be understood it's a total void. Early on much of the advice was just re-enforcing annual flu message. Which to most require little change or effect and is taken as a given in many peoples mind. 
They become one a off change which tend to be easy to accept. Covid requires behaviour change day after day so the message needs to change. Telling people what _not_ to do is easier than advising them about what to do in the right way and in the right circumstances. But that's not happening. Leading to what we have now and most not having a clue what the right things is to do. Add in the mass of SM rubbish and other crap that's now had time to build up. which early on was less mainstream and you have even a bigger problem. Much of the main steam media has just added to the fire. The Government ,wider political debate and the media using mostly scientific and clinical language as throw away sound bites with little context did and continues to make it worse. Something which Whitty, Valance and others have had to learn quickly. 

Your right about June and not much has worked since which most likely is largely off the back of mid may and the big push of the "Stay alert"
message. Which lead to the continuing confused messages about what might be possible to do or not. you can't expect. The relative secrecy and lack of transparency around the government has just compounded it. You can't just go for one extreme to the other without backing it with clear messages and clear information. 

Who did come up with "self isolation" ? It look's to be the widely used term in many placers WHO seem to like so maybe it's just been taken as read that's what you call it. I agree it's use is problematic quarantine is mostly understood it's been in use long enough. Was that thought to be outdated or not user friendly enough? I've not seen any back ground to why it's fallen from favour. 
Do you know which counties have a high compliance rate with self isolation that don't use strict enforcement to back it up? 
Do any that have that approach also provide support when you're asked to do it or do they just expect you find a way as we do?
The 500 quid idea just won't do it it's more than that what's needed.


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## tom73 (26 Sep 2020)

Any test booked outside the app won't work with it appears.
Some can't enter a negative result but more a problem is tests via ONS or taken in an NHS Hospital or Public Health England lab.
You can't enter it regardless of the result.
If you book a test via the app you can't get a result other than via the app either so no back up option if it stop's working.
Are any bit's of Serco Track and Trace working ?


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## stowie (26 Sep 2020)

Everyone at work was sent an email saying that we should download the COVID 19 app to our work mobiles.

Most people's work mobile (including mine) is an iPhone6. The app doesn't work with iPhone6. So that's good.


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## oldwheels (26 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> As a certain J.Lydon once said, tourists are money. No economic activity, no tourism = no future. Kim Jong Sturgeon doesn't seem to care too much about that though. She will when half the voting population haven't got any paid employment because of her dictatorial and over zealous policy of trying to gold plate any rules coming from Johnson then ratchet them up a gear just to show how "seriously" she's taking it.


Tourism is just another form of prostitution and is totally volatile and unreliable. It does not replace real jobs.
I suppose if the NHS is overwhelmed again and there are many deaths you think that would be good thing to reduce the population of pensioners in particular. Funny how Johnston announces things after our First Minister. Her government is trying to improve the lot of the general population just to embarrass the Westminster government. It is terrible, they are doing it on purpose to quote rent a gob Fooks.


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## classic33 (26 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> As a certain J.Lydon once said, tourists are money. No economic activity, no tourism = no future. Kim Jong Sturgeon doesn't seem to care too much about that though. She will when half the voting population haven't got any paid employment because of her dictatorial and over zealous policy of trying to gold plate any rules coming from Johnson then ratchet them up a gear just to show how "seriously" she's taking it.


Don't worry, you'll still have Sweden to go to for your "economic activities".


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## tom73 (26 Sep 2020)

University of Glasgow is offering to give students isolating one months free rent. They are encouraging students to spend the money in 
local restaurants and food outlets. Think we've heard something like that before


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## tom73 (26 Sep 2020)

Paging @midlife 
Just been sent this Rapid review of AGP's in Dentistry. 
https://www.sdcep.org.uk/published-guidance/covid-19-practice-recovery/rapid-review-of-agps/


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## midlife (26 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Paging @midlife
> Just been sent this Rapid review of AGP's in Dentistry.
> https://www.sdcep.org.uk/published-guidance/covid-19-practice-recovery/rapid-review-of-agps/



Thanks  SDCEP have been quite active during the outbreak. At the moment we follow national guidelines with local overlays of more risk averse behaviour. For example at one hospital I work in dental students can see patients whilst at another they can't.


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## tom73 (26 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Thanks  SDCEP have been quite active during the outbreak. At the moment we follow national guidelines with local overlays of more risk averse behaviour. For example at one hospital I work in dental students can see patients whilst at another they can't.



Welcome thought you'd be working to localised miss mash. Just thought it may have some new stuff that's not been bought in.


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## oldwheels (26 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> University of Glasgow is offering to give students isolating one months free rent. They are encouraging students to spend the money in
> local restaurants and food outlets. Think we've heard something like that before


I think I read somewhere that they are also giving some cash. Cannot remember how much but £50 seems to be floating around in my head.


----------



## cambsno (26 Sep 2020)

pawl said:


> Cant say that Sturgeon is my favourite At least she takes appropriate action when required.Boris then follows her lead eventually.



Lots of people say this but the death rates etc... are pretty much the same up there as in England, so she is hardly a massive success. 

We are failing with an idiot at the helm, while Scots are failing with someone supposedly good at the helm - at least with Boris it cant get any worse!


----------



## randynewmanscat (26 Sep 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Sorry but this latest ad just about sums the governments response up...lol
> View attachment 549113


180! Number of pints ordered 5 minutes before last orders.


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## Mo1959 (26 Sep 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> 180! Number of pints ordered 5 minutes before last orders.


I wonder how many who have had a good few will then follow up with a house party!


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## randynewmanscat (26 Sep 2020)

A young friend has started his second year at university in Poitiers. Nobody has been wearing a mask during lectures. They sit one seat apart but its not good. He told me until last week it was way too hot, people had their masks around their necks. Autumn started (not the official one, the real one) on Tuesday, it won't be warm until next year from now, I am interested to know if things change with compliance then.
He says its not a dissent thing that has them not wearing protection, it is the lack of comfort. My friend makes up his spending money by working at my local supermarket Leclerc, he has to wear a mask there but the aircon is good there, it isn't at the uni. Paris and Bordeaux are going to be swamped by the virus unless there is action, difficult for Macron as he has sorted painted himself into a corner by signalling that the country will not be closed again. There is local confinement just as in Britain but its Paris that must not close. Going to be an interesting winter.


----------



## randynewmanscat (26 Sep 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I wonder how many who have had a good few will then follow up with a house party!


Normal! When you and your mates both old and perhaps newly met but never to be seen again leave there is the siren song of a fridge full of beer in one of your houses. If I visit my local bar I leave at 9 when its still fairly sober and well behaved. The place is tiny and the few usual suspects tend to become very animated before 10, you cannot get any space when people are lurching and leaning over you. Normally I would enjoy monkey house hour in a pub but with the covid I'll avoid until further notice.


----------



## gavroche (26 Sep 2020)

cambsno said:


> Lots of people say this but the death rates etc... are pretty much the same up there as in England, so she is hardly a massive success.
> 
> We are failing with an idiot at the helm, while Scots are failing with someone supposedly good at the helm -* at least with Boris it can get worse!*


----------



## tom73 (26 Sep 2020)

Following on from post re app and people not able to enter test results. On Friday alone day after it came out more than 61,000 people could not enter their results. So any close contacts will now never know.


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## Julia9054 (26 Sep 2020)

I am reading that if you use the qr code to log into a venue that there is no way to log out until it automatically resets at midnight. So you could be told to self isolate based on the presence of someone with a +ve test who arrived after you left.


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## tom73 (26 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I am reading that if you use the qr code to log into a venue that there is no way to log out until it automatically resets at midnight. So you could be told to self isolate based on the presence of someone with a +ve test who arrived after you left.


Yes your right that's been confirmed officially makes the pubs closing at 10 an interesting situation. The other problem is only an isolation request via a contact tracer is legally enforceable. If the app tells you you're free to do what you like.


----------



## marinyork (26 Sep 2020)

Wonder why my visit logged me out when I tried to scanned out then.


----------



## slowmotion (27 Sep 2020)

Does anybody know if any other country in Europe is whining as much as the UK?


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (27 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> Everyone at work was sent an email saying that we should download the COVID 19 app to our work mobiles.



My work has been promoting the virus app as well. Needless to say, I'm not going to be downloading it and I've been pointing out the implications if they download it to the other staff I work with, which has certainly made some of them stop and think about it. From other postings it appears to be pretty flawed anyway, and I'm not having someone order me to isolate - especially on the basis of garbage false data.


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## PaulSB (27 Sep 2020)

It's become very clear to me over the last few days many of the issues around how we should behave are poorly understood. The consequence is to reduce the effectiveness of the legal or advised behaviour.

How have I discovered this? I live in Lancashire a current high risk area under special restrictions. I had reason to need/want to understand what i can or cannot legally do and what I am advised to do. I had to read the published information on .gov.uk 6-7 times to understand the position.

I became interested in how the "track and trace" app works. Over 72 hours I spoke to numerous people, some in a potential position to understand through their occupation, and not one understood how this app works. The level of misinformation and misunderstanding is very scary.

I eventually discovered all the info I needed in the app FAQ. How many have the interest or determination to do this? I would guess less than 1% of the population.

The lack of clear, simple and concise instruction or direction is directly and negatively impacting all the authorities efforts to control the spread of Covid-19. It's a big problem and if I can see this and know the solution why can't the authorities???


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## tom73 (27 Sep 2020)

PaulSB said:


> It's become very clear to me over the last few days many of the issues around how we should behave are poorly understood. The consequence is to reduce the effectiveness of the legal or advised behaviour.
> 
> How have I discovered this? I live in Lancashire a current high risk area under special restrictions. I had reason to need/want to understand what i can or cannot legally do and what I am advised to do. I had to read the published information on .gov.uk 6-7 times to understand the position.
> 
> ...



D
Good question I suspect some in power nationally and locally do but to do anything about. As it means admitting they got it wrong something which they don't like doing. Much better to play the blame game locally they blame government. In turn the government blame the councils and when they need to up the anti they move on to the public.


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## PK99 (27 Sep 2020)

PaulSB said:


> It's become very clear to me over the last few days many of the issues around how we should behave are poorly understood. The consequence is to reduce the effectiveness of the legal or advised behaviour.
> 
> How have I discovered this? I live in Lancashire a current high risk area under special restrictions. I had reason to need/want to understand what i can or cannot legally do and what I am advised to do. I had to read the published information on .gov.uk 6-7 times to understand the position.
> 
> ...



So, random people you asked did not have the info you wanted. But it was available all the while in the app FAQ. 

Doh! Who knew?


----------



## Adam4868 (27 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> So, random people you asked did not have the info you wanted. But it was available all the while in the app FAQ.
> 
> Doh! Who knew?


Lock down in Blackpool...what fecking lockdown ? Busiest weekend in the last 10/15 years I'd say.
The only thing most know is that it's 10pm closing..what's the other differences ?


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## PaulSB (27 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> So, random people you asked did not have the info you wanted. But it was available all the while in the app FAQ.
> 
> Doh! Who knew?


I'm unsure of your point but it seems you've entirely missed the point. I was unclear how this app works and as most people would chatted about it with friends, asked them what they knew, it's how the world works.

It became clear everyone I spoke to, all educated and interested people, 14 in total did not understand the app. Through word of mouth, my wife's three tennis partners, I discovered another 3 making 17 in total.

I decided it was important to find out so I delved into the FAQ and found the info.

I'd respectfully suggest to you it is those who have launched this app and failed to publicise some basic info who are worthy of your "Doh" comment.

Expecting the bulk of potential users to sit down and read the FAQs is fantasy land.


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## marinyork (27 Sep 2020)

PaulSB said:


> Expecting the bulk of potential users to sit down and read the FAQs is fantasy land.



The FAQ isn't too bad and I agree when I read the faq I found some stuff that wasn't on tv.


----------



## aferris2 (27 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I am reading that if you use the qr code to log into a venue that there is no way to log out until it automatically resets at midnight. So you could be told to self isolate based on the presence of someone with a +ve test who arrived after you left.


No, there is a button at the bottom of the screen to say you're back home (and one to cancel the log in). You get logged out at midnight automatically if you forget to click the button.


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## tom73 (27 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> The FAQ isn't too bad and I agree when I read the faq I found some stuff that wasn't on tv.



Not available in all formats though different languages yes but not easy read for LD's or other conditions such as dementia. 
In fact since the early days of this no updated information/guidelines have been in any other format. 
It's been left to others to put them into different languages. 
We still don't have any official broadcasts or press briefings that are signed. Unless you're watching on BBC news at the time. 
Even ones made parliament the speaker just stands up and says watch the BBC if you need it signed. 
So even if they wanted to many can't access official information pretty crap as it's suppose to be public health information.


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## marinyork (27 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> So even if they wanted to many can't access official information pretty crap as it's suppose to be public health information.



There was a lot of work here in March/April by community groups on information in Somali, Arabic and Urdu. 

The quality of information in English back then was not so good though.


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## Julia9054 (27 Sep 2020)

aferris2 said:


> No, there is a button at the bottom of the screen to say you're back home (and one to cancel the log in). You get logged out at midnight automatically if you forget to click the button.


Ah. That makes more sense. The twitter peeps complaining can’t have seen that. Haven’t tried it myself because, although I have downloaded the app, i haven’t been anywhere since. 
Did we ascertain earlier in the discussion what happens if I sit on my sofa all evening and the woman next door does the same less than 2 metres away on the other side of the wall?


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## tom73 (27 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> There was a lot of work here in March/April by community groups on information in Somali, Arabic and Urdu.
> 
> The quality of information in English back then was not so good though.


Shouldn't have come down to that though should it


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## tom73 (27 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Ah. That makes more sense. The twitter peeps complaining can’t have seen that. Haven’t tried it myself because, although I have downloaded the app, i haven’t been anywhere since.
> Did we ascertain earlier in the discussion what happens if I sit on my sofa all evening and the woman next door does the same less than 2 metres away on the other side of the wall?


No it's not clear cut but basically it may or may not trigger a warning. I did see one expert think one in three alerts will be a false. 
Best if in doubt turn it off be it at home, work or left in the car when out and about you may have problems but not much you can do about one. Other than not use it.


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## SkipdiverJohn (27 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> No it's not clear cut but basically it may or may not trigger a warning. I did see one expert think one in three alerts will be a false.
> Best if in doubt turn it off be it at home, work or left in the car when out and about you may have problems but not much you can do about one. Other than not use it.



Hardly a ringing endorsement for the app is it? Given that money seems no object with anything coronavirus related, you'd think they'd a) manage to develop something reliable and trustworthy, and b) explain in detail exactly how it works in order to counter the inevitable outlandish conspiracy theories that are bound to circulate.

If a large number of my colleagues download this app and it gives off a high proportion of false alerts, that could be a real paid time off staff bonanza, and a massive paying staff wages to sit at home problem for my job - as if I get sent home for virus-related reasons I'm on full pay. That got me thinking; if I download the app and carry my work phone with me everywhere (which I usually do in case someone needs to get hold of me about something urgent), it probably won't be too long before I get an alert, either real or false.. If that happens, it's automatically two weeks at home putting my feet up and drinking tea - on full pay. Maybe I should download the app after all?


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## Julia9054 (27 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Hardly a ringing endorsement for the app is it? Given that money seems no object with anything coronavirus related, you'd think they'd a) manage to develop something reliable and trustworthy, and b) explain in detail exactly how it works in order to counter the inevitable outlandish conspiracy theories that are bound to circulate.
> 
> If a large number of my colleagues download this app and it gives off a high proportion of false alerts, that could be a real paid time off staff bonanza, and a massive paying staff wages to sit at home problem for my job - as if I get sent home for virus-related reasons I'm on full pay. That got me thinking; if I download the app and carry my work phone with me everywhere (which I usually do in case someone needs to get hold of me about something urgent), it probably won't be too long before I get an alert, either real or false.. If that happens, it's automatically two weeks at home putting my feet up and drinking tea - on full pay. Maybe I should download the app after all?


If I get sent home to self isolate, I still have to do my job and teach all my lessons online with a cover teacher broadcasting me to my class. A colleague has already done this and it was a major ballache involving lots of extra planning and it didn’t work very well. I am very, very keen not to have to do it!


tom73 said:


> Best if in doubt turn it off be it at home, work or left in the car when out and about you may have problems but not much you can do about one. Other than not use it.


Yeah - I can tell you now I’m not going to remember to keep turning it on and off!


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## tom73 (27 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Yeah - I can tell you now I’m not going to remember to keep turning it on and off!


That's the problem you can set a reminder I believe but not sure if you can have it on repeat or if it's a one off.


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## SkipdiverJohn (27 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> If I get sent home to self isolate, I still have to do my job and teach all my lessons online with a cover teacher broadcasting me to my class.



My job is hands-on and can't be done without me being physically present. If I get sent home the most I can be given to do is to read a few emails and briefings. I won't be doing anything that could be considered real work, and I can't see it filling more than an hour a day at the most. Also, in theory if you get this app, there is no limit to the number of times you could get alerted and sent to isolate. If a large number of people take up the app, there are going to be a lot of potential interactions, so you could get sent home several times over the next few months. My understanding is that even if you got a genuine alert and then had a positive test result, you could *still* get sent to isolate yet again say in a month's time, because you had another alert - even though by previously having had the virus you would be immune!
The whole regime is totally bonkers, sending well people home due to unreliable false alerts, and sending immune people home due to the fact acquired immunity is not officially recognised as meaning no action to isolate needs to be taken.


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## Julia9054 (27 Sep 2020)

I have downloaded it out of curiosity but I don’t think it is going to be of much benefit to me. If I catch it, it is overwhelmingly likely to be at work where my phone is not on my person. We have our own effective track and trace system - already tested out as (like many schools) we have had cases already. If I am spending more than 15 minutes with someone not in a work setting, then they are going to be a friend who’s contact details I already have. I go to band rehearsals where we have each other’s contact details and a covid risk assessment or I might occasionally go somewhere like the hairdresser - who have my contact details and their own Covid secure procedures. Can’t really think of any other scenario for me personally.


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## PK99 (27 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I have downloaded it out of curiosity but I don’t think it is going to be of much benefit to me. If I catch it, it is overwhelmingly likely to be at work where my phone is not on my person. We have our own effective track and trace system - already tested out as (like many schools) we have had cases already. If I am spending more than 15 minutes with someone not in a work setting, then* they are going to be a friend *who’s contact details I already have. I go to* band rehearsals *where we have each other’s contact details and a covid risk assessment or I might occasionally go somewhere like* the hairdresser* - who have my contact details and their own Covid secure procedures. Can’t really think of any other scenario for me personally.



You give a number of scenarios where you are trusting other people to be honest and open.

Are you sure?


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## Julia9054 (27 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> You give a number of scenarios where you are trusting other people to be honest and open.
> 
> Are you sure?


I seriously don’t have that many friends! I can actually only think of 3 people I have spent more than 15 minutes with in the last month!
My spare time is mostly spent cycling with my partner or by myself!


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## PK99 (27 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I seriously don’t have that many friends! I can actually only think of 3 people I have spent more than 15 minutes with in the last month!
> My spare time is mostly spent cycling with my partner or by myself!



Good. For you that works.

A CTC group I used to ride with, have been following CTC guidelines - sub groups of 6 on a ride, 10m between riders, 15 minutes between groups.

All well and good one might think!

A blog post from one rider said it was working well: The sub-groups were stratified by speed and you could always socialise with the other groups at the meet up at the end of the ride.

Errm, no!

Thankfully that post was followed by one from the Group Chair emphasizing the need for sub groups NOT to socialise.

There an awful lot of very stupid clever people!


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## Julia9054 (27 Sep 2020)

Some of the younger members of my band are socialising at the pub after rehearsals. I never went to the pub after band before Covid so wont be doing so now. A bit of chatting in the car park (standing 2 metres away and outdoors) and then home.


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## tom73 (27 Sep 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-coming-how-did-britain-get-back-in-this-mess


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## mjr (27 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If a large number of people take up the app, there are going to be a lot of potential interactions, so you could get sent home several times over the next few months.


And the app doubling the "close contact" distance to 4m probably quadruples the interactions...

I think even many who think covid is dangerous have doubts this app will be a net benefit.


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## oldwheels (27 Sep 2020)

Nobody seems to have reported problems with the Scottish app which is triggered if you are 2 metres or less for more than 15 minutes from somebody who has tested positive.


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## classic33 (27 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> My job is hands-on and can't be done without me being physically present. If I get sent home the most I can be given to do is to read a few emails and briefings. I won't be doing anything that could be considered real work, and I can't see it filling more than an hour a day at the most. Also, in theory if you get this app, there is no limit to the number of times you could get alerted and sent to isolate. If a large number of people take up the app, there are going to be a lot of potential interactions, so you could get sent home several times over the next few months. My understanding is that even if you got a genuine alert and then had a positive test result, you could *still* get sent to isolate yet again say in a month's time, because you had another alert - *even though by previously having had the virus you would be immune!*
> The whole regime is totally bonkers, sending well people home due to unreliable false alerts, and sending immune people home due to the fact acquired immunity is not officially recognised as meaning no action to isolate needs to be taken.


You keep on repeating that having caught it, you'd be immune from catching it again. Care to back that bit up. To date there's no proof that that is true, just hearsay.


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## mjr (27 Sep 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Nobody seems to have reported problems with the Scottish app which is triggered if you are 2 metres or less for more than 15 minutes from somebody who has tested positive.


Yes but it's Scotland so it doesn't get reported down here 

More seriously, "Nicola Sturgeon humiliated as coronavirus app wreaks HAVOC on phones – ‘doesn’t work!’" - sorry did I write serious? That's the Faily Express.

There were some comments early on about it saving the number of close contacts in a settings variable, which would be poor in several ways, but the report on The Herald's website that was at https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18734312.protect-scotland-app-check-many-people-come-contact/ is now only in search engine caches and most of the others seem gone completely.

I've not seen that many reviews of it at all. Does it suffer the same distance measurement problems and close-contact-through-walls as the England and Wales one?


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## tom73 (27 Sep 2020)

Local law firm today questioned legality of student lockdown in Manchester. Hours later uni confirms it’s not compulsory. Police say it’s not enforceable so not police matter.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...ter-news/this-not-policing-issue-mmu-19006899
What mess all round


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## SkipdiverJohn (27 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> I think even many who think covid is dangerous have doubts this app will be a net benefit.



I think the app is just going to create chaos in workforces by sending out loads of spurious alerts resulting in huge numbers of pointless isolations, where it turns out the person alerted gets no symptoms or tests negative (if they can actually get a test in time). In jobs where staff come into contact with a lot of other people, it would only take one employee to be alerted initially, then all their colleagues would also get them from being in proximity, and before you know it you could have an organisation ending up with half it's manpower in self-isolation all at the same time. Just think about the types of jobs involving public contact, retail staff, public transport, construction, utilities, police, education, delivery drivers etc.


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## classic33 (28 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I think the app is just going to create chaos in workforces by sending out loads of spurious alerts resulting in huge numbers of pointless isolations, where it turns out the person alerted gets no symptoms or tests negative (if they can actually get a test in time). In jobs where staff come into contact with a lot of other people, it would only take one employee to be alerted initially, then all their colleagues would also get them from being in proximity, and before you know it you could have an organisation ending up with half it's manpower in self-isolation all at the same time. *Just think about the types of jobs involving public contact, retail staff, public transport, construction, utilities, police, education, delivery drivers etc.*


How many of them are in close contact with the same person for 15 minutes.

If they show no symptoms, is that any guarantee that they don't actually have it. I refer you, again, to "Typhoid Mary" who never showed any signs of the disease, but still passed the disease on to others.


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## SkipdiverJohn (28 Sep 2020)

I can be working in close proximity to other staff for several hours a day, never mind 15 minutes. Mostly the same people admittedly, but in the real world, not the air conditioned office or work from home on a computer world, there is a lot of contact with others and most of it is unavoidable if you actually aim to get any work done and not piss about all day doing bugger all.


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## mjr (28 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> ... but in the real world, not the air conditioned office or work from home on a computer world, ...


You probably have terrible problems getting IT support or many customer services if they realise your attitude to their work!

Just because they're not shifting sacks or whatever doesn't make their work any less critical. Be thankful they can be a bit more isolated and sacrifice a little mental health to help everyone's physical health.


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## classic33 (28 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I can be working in close proximity to other staff for several hours a day, never mind 15 minutes. Mostly the same people admittedly, but in the real world, not the air conditioned office or work from home on a computer world, there is a lot of contact with others and most of it is unavoidable if you actually aim to get any work done and not piss about all day doing bugger all.


And you handle all the public contact, face to face, as per the post quoted.


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## MrGrumpy (28 Sep 2020)

my wife was telling me about someone in our locality, who was contacted by Scottish track and trace people as they had come into contact with a positive case. They were asked to isolate and to also get a test. They duly tested positive as well and isolated for two weeks with not a single symptom!


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## Mo1959 (28 Sep 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> my wife was telling me about someone in our locality, who was contacted by Scottish track and trace people as they had come into contact with a positive case. They were asked to isolate and to also get a test. They duly tested positive as well and isolated for two weeks with not a single symptom!


This is what makes it so worrying...............if you get it are you going to be one of the lucky ones that barely even notices you have it, or for whatever reason it hits you bad and you end up needing hospitalised with all the follow up health problems if you survive.


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## Julia9054 (28 Sep 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> my wife was telling me about someone in our locality, who was contacted by Scottish track and trace people as they had come into contact with a positive case. They were asked to isolate and to also get a test. They duly tested positive as well and isolated for two weeks with not a single symptom!


I thought we were only supposed to get a test now if we actually have symptoms


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## Julia9054 (28 Sep 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> but in the real world


Everyone's world is real, John. You don't have a monopoly on reality!
Anyway, as I said previously, I come into contact with lots of people during the course of my work. My phone won't track any of it because it is in my handbag in a locker


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## DaveReading (28 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I thought we were only supposed to get a test now if we actually have symptoms



Correct. Whether or not you are told to self-isolate (via either NHS Track & Trace or the Covid-19 App) you should only get a test if you get symptoms.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coron...in-contact-with-a-person-who-has-coronavirus/


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## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Correct. Whether or not you are told to self-isolate (via either NHS Track & Trace or the Covid-19 App) you should only get a test if you get symptoms.
> 
> https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coron...in-contact-with-a-person-who-has-coronavirus/


They've been a bit selective with the facts not sure which Serco dept did that page. 
A clinical contact tracer can decide if you need one or not. Not the unqualified Serco call handler equally if any HCP tell's you to get a test you can have one with or without symptoms. I'd like to see an unqualified call handler or unqualified Serco guy at the test centre. Over rule that one.


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## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

Also have I read this right if your told to isolate and have no symptoms you can't have a test. Unless you have symptoms no-one else in your household has to isolate. But without a test and no symptoms you have no idea if you have Covid or not. Equally the rest of your household don't either but can freely go about and possibly infect others. Given the high numbers of asymptomatic cases this sounds crazy.


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Also have I read this right if your told to isolate and have no symptoms you can't have a test. Unless you have symptoms no-one else in your household has to isolate. But without a test and no symptoms you have no idea if you have Covid or not. Equally the rest of your household don't either but can freely go about and possibly infect others. Given the high numbers of asymptomatic cases this sounds crazy.



Testing wouldn't help much in this situation, I think? There is an incubation period before you would test positive. So if you're tested immediately a large proportion of those who would ultimately become infectious would get a negative test. I think the view is that you need two negative tests at least a week apart to mitigate that. Perhaps the view is that the "contacts of contacts" are sufficiently low risk that the risk/benefit of them isolating too doesn't justify it?


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## DaveReading (28 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> They've been a bit selective with the facts not sure which Serco dept did that page.
> A clinical contact tracer can decide if you need one or not. Not the unqualified Serco call handler equally if any HCP tell's you to get a test you can have one with or without symptoms. I'd like to see an unqualified call handler or unqualified Serco guy at the test centre. Over rule that one.



Interesting.

So what would be the criteria for a tracer telling you that you should/must get a test, if you're symptomless ?


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## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Testing wouldn't help much in this situation, I think? There is an incubation period before you would test positive. So if you're tested immediately a large proportion of those who would ultimately become infectious would get a negative test. I think the view is that you need two negative tests at least a week apart to mitigate that. Perhaps the view is that the "contacts of contacts" are sufficiently low risk that the risk/benefit of them isolating too doesn't justify it?


Your right about a possible time lag the main thing is you may never know either way. if it's suspected you maybe a risk it's common sense to assume others you live with maybe too. As they have been in close contact with you but it's assumed they must be ok as no-one has symptoms. Which sounds to make little sense.


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## MrGrumpy (28 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> I thought we were only supposed to get a test now if we actually have symptoms


I have no idea what the rules are these days, confusing. However I`m only repeating what I have been told. This info came first hand from the person isolating.


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## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Interesting.
> 
> So what would be the criteria for a tracer telling you that you should/must get a test, if you're symptomless ?


If the situation was more complex than just meeting one friend down the pub and both of you when home and been at home for days.
Out the blue if Mrs 73 got a phone call due to none work place contact she'd have to be past on to a clinical contact tracer.
Currently she could have possible infect over 1000 people. A bit of a extremest example but a untrained contact tracer can't make a call about that. She'd just book one any way and equally i'd have to have one before she could go back to work.

I don't know just what the Serco computer tell's an untrained call handler. What i'm trying to say is it's not as clear cut as the public information is trying to make out. In the end if they fixed the Serco T&T they'd not have to try and ration them or worry about never knowing if untraced cases are freely infecting others.


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## oldwheels (28 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Yes but it's Scotland so it doesn't get reported down here
> 
> More seriously, "Nicola Sturgeon humiliated as coronavirus app wreaks HAVOC on phones – ‘doesn’t work!’" - sorry did I write serious? That's the Faily Express.
> 
> ...


Sorry I cannot give any reasonable answer. The Herald is not necessarily a reliable source of information but the link says the page has gone anyway. I have not heard of any particular problems but if there were the BBC would have a major feature of it at regular intervals. 
Nicola Sturgeon is the front for the Scottish Government but the media seem to slant everything as though she was doing everything herself.


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## mjr (28 Sep 2020)

oldwheels said:


> I have not heard of any particular problems but if there were the BBC would have a major feature of it at regular intervals.


While I agree with much of your post, I do not share your faith in the state broadcaster at this time, or about technology news reporting in general.


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## oldwheels (28 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> While I agree with much of your post, I do not share your faith in the state broadcaster at this time, or about technology news reporting in general.


I have no faith in the state broadcaster but any anti Scottish and particularly any anti SNP story gets major coverage here. The truth is only an option.


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Let us know whether the waiting time for results is accurate. I've done 3 weekly tests for the ONS survey, was told 8 - 10 day delay, and I still haven't had any back.



I got my Covid-19 test result in an email this morning. It was negative. Did the swab test Thu morning before 8am (as they ask you to do that on day on collection), then put in fridge. Collected about 5pm on Thu, and result this morning. So what's that about 3.5 days (84 hours ish) from collection?

Remember this is the randomised NHS / Imperial College Covid-19 testing to inform Government action, so it may be on a fast track than other testing (if you have symptoms etc).

Edited to note you were also doing testing for the randomised Covid-19 testing from those on NHS GP registers.


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Sep 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> So my old neighbours are coming up for a short break next week. Now they can’t pop into the house and sit several feet away from me on the couch, but I can go out for a meal and sit inches away from them at a table. No wonder people are getting fed up and confused.



I didn't think you could do that at a pub, unless you are in the same household or support bubble. The pubs we've been in to eat, there's been a good 2m or more seperation between tables and perspex shields up.


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## Mo1959 (28 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I didn't think you could do that at a pub, unless you are in the same household or support bubble. The pubs we've been in to eat, there's been a good 2m or more seperation between tables and perspex shields up.


We are going out on Wednesday evening. My first experience, so we shall see how it goes, but I will obviously be sitting either beside them or across a reasonably narrow table to eat.


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Sep 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> We are going out on Wednesday evening. My first experience, so we shall see how it goes, but I will obviously be sitting either beside them or across a reasonably narrow table to eat.



Good luck and don't be afraid to turn around if the pub doesn't seem to be taking it seriously. We've had three good ones, and one bad so far.


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## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> We are going out on Wednesday evening. My first experience, so we shall see how it goes, but I will obviously be sitting either beside them or across a reasonably narrow table to eat.



I back up what's been said if it don't look or feel right walk way I will add one other thing from someone who really understands this stuff 

View: https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1309944088205160448?s=21


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## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

First hospital to pass a 1000 total Covid deaths to date I don't think it will be alone 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-54323193


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## mjr (28 Sep 2020)

First reports are starting to dribble in about places refusing to serve people who haven't downloaded the NHS-branded app. Has anyone encountered one yet? Do you know how they're enforcing it? Is a QR scanner and a screenshot enough to fool them? Just for the benefits of those of us with non-blessed smartphones, you know?

Has someone already made an app that decodes the QR code (it's UKC19TRACING:1:base64json.base64json.base64code with the second base64json containing the venue name in the "opn" field) and displays the check-in screen yet?


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## marinyork (28 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> First reports are starting to dribble in about places refusing to serve people who haven't downloaded the NHS-branded app. Has anyone encountered one yet? Do you know how they're enforcing it? Is a QR scanner and a screenshot enough to fool them? Just for the benefits of those of us with non-blessed smartphones, you know?
> 
> Has someone already made an app that decodes the QR code (it's UKC19TRACING:1:base64json.base64json.base64code with the second base64json containing the venue name in the "opn" field) and displays the check-in screen yet?



It does have to be said it's in a venue's interest to encourage use of the app, or even go further and say only the app (even though they shouldn't). It saves sharing pens, paper, storage space and other things.

Places are checking things.


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## fossyant (28 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> I back up what's been said if it don't look or feel right walk way I will add one other thing from someone who really understands this stuff
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1309944088205160448?s=21




Oi oi, that's my local chippy. I've been doing click and collect there from the hatch just past the double doors on the right.


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## mjr (28 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> It does have to be said it's in a venue's interest to encourage use of the app, or even go further and say only the app (even though they shouldn't). It saves sharing pens, paper, storage space and other things.


How is it a venue's interest to turn the few remaining willing customers away?



> Places are checking things.


How can they check?


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## marinyork (28 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> How is it a venue's interest to turn the few remaining willing customers away?
> 
> How can they check?



Risk aversion.

Pubs are looking at people's phones. I would imagine that looking at it all day long staff can tell, although a good fake would probably get past.

Venues are also checking group sizes more.


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## deptfordmarmoset (28 Sep 2020)

I just read that the bars in the houses of parliament have been classed as workplace canteens and therefore don't have to shut at 10pm or follow stricter mask requirements and test and trace data-gathering procedures. One rule for the mobs, no rules for the nobs.


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## matticus (28 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> Venues are also checking group sizes more.


It doesn't seem very difficult, does it?? Counting 15 or 30 would be trickier, but counting a group of 6!!!


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## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> It does have to be said it's in a venue's interest to encourage use of the app, or even go further and say only the app (even though they shouldn't). It saves sharing pens, paper, storage space and other things.
> 
> Places are checking things.


It is the best option we just have to be careful we don’t reach a point of limiting things to the ones who can and excluding ones who are trying to do and willing to do the right things but can’t as they don’t have the means.


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## DCLane (28 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> I back up what's been said if it don't look or feel right walk way I will add one other thing from someone who really understands this stuff
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1309944088205160448?s=21




My wife's done some work with her - they're both Dietitians - and yes, she does know her stuff.


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## marinyork (28 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> It doesn't seem very difficult, does it?? Counting 15 or 30 would be trickier, but counting a group of 6!!!



A lot of groups arrive at different times. Before you would see 4 people joined by another 2, joined by another 1 and another 2 later. This is still going on. Also people going and then moving tables.

I have joined someone at the pub and got asked how many people were in the group (2) and had exactly the same when moving table to check not joining a group of six.


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## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> A lot of groups arrive at different times. Before you would see 4 people joined by another 2, joined by another 1 and another 2 later. This is still going on. Also people going and then moving tables.
> 
> I have joined someone at the pub and got asked how many people were in the group (2) and had exactly the same when moving table to check not joining a group of six.


Amazing what happens when you tell them enrofoce the rules or it’s 10 grand. We could have save so much of this messing around mouths ago.


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## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

Police told don't put app on works phones. Good job really 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technolo...oronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story


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## marinyork (28 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Amazing what happens when you tell them enrofoce the rules or it’s 10 grand. We could have save so much of this messing around mouths ago.



I feel that some of the stuff being implemented now including inspections and advice would have made a difference over what's now nearly four months since things reopened.


----------



## Rusty Nails (28 Sep 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Sorry I cannot give any reasonable answer. The Herald is not necessarily a reliable source of information but the link says the page has gone anyway. I have not heard of any particular problems but if there were the BBC would have a major feature of it at regular intervals.
> *Nicola Sturgeon is the front for the Scottish Government but the media seem to slant everything as though she was doing everything herself.*


That's the way she seems to want to portray it. Does she do all the Covid briefings or does she delegate some of them to ministers? I don't know how selective the tv channels outside Scotland are but they only seem to show her.


----------



## midlife (28 Sep 2020)

Had the app working on my phone for the first full day. Battery currently at 7% from 100% at 8am. usually at about 70% this time of day, not done anything different apart from the app.....


----------



## mjr (28 Sep 2020)

Another poultry factory outbreak https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health...bernard-matthews-employees-covid-19-1-6859074

It'll be interesting whether the more cooperative approach of the more paternalistic company limits the outbreak size more than the last one did.


----------



## midlife (28 Sep 2020)

Leaving aside the tragedy that happened, is this allowed at the moment with social distancing and rule of six?


----------



## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

marinyork said:


> I feel that some of the stuff being implemented now including inspections and advice would have made a difference over what's now nearly four months since things reopened.


Totally the it’s recommend idea was never going to work. Some of the stuff in general that’s in place now would have saved a good few lives too if implemented 6 months ago.


----------



## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Leaving aside the tragedy that happened, is this allowed at the moment with social distancing and rule of six?
> 
> View attachment 549673


As it stands no it’s not but don’t think it will get pick up.


----------



## oldwheels (28 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> That's the way she seems to want to portray it. Does she do all the Covid briefings or does she delegate some of them to ministers? I don't know how selective the tv channels outside Scotland are but they only seem to show her.


There are two other people there depending on current circumstances. The Medical Officer and the Chief Constable mostly but often some other expert. They all add their bit. 
At least she is there as First Minister unlike other countries where the head is off on holiday or something and some incoherent junior is delegated to answer questions where he clearly does not know the answer.
While I am ambivalent about Ms Sturgeon in some respects at least she gets on with the job and I cannot understand this unreasoning hatred of her. Is it fear that she seems capable and comes across as a coherent and capable leader?


----------



## marinyork (28 Sep 2020)

classic33 said:


> You keep on repeating that having caught it, you'd be immune from catching it again. Care to back that bit up. To date there's no proof that that is true, just hearsay.



The 2019/2020 flu season was on course to be a real shocker, but tailed off dramatically with social distancing. Some of the people reporting really bad illnesses in December and January almost certainly had flu. Although there is some small evidence the virus may have arrived here in December in tiny numbers. It was here it January but probably not circulating widely.

Evidence suggests the city of Manaus in Brazil was the 2nd worst place on earth for covid-19. There is a non-peer reviewed paper that with a bit of bodgery reckons 66% of the population have had this coronavirus. It then analyses whether herd immunity explains the drops in infections. Cases have started to rise again though, leading to speculation outside those writing the paper whether this is just showing that immunity is only for 3 months. 66% is about ten times higher a proportion than in the UK.


----------



## Rusty Nails (28 Sep 2020)

oldwheels said:


> There are two other people there depending on current circumstances. The Medical Officer and the Chief Constable mostly but often some other expert. They all add their bit.
> At least she is there as First Minister unlike other countries where the head is off on holiday or something and some incoherent junior is delegated to answer questions where he clearly does not know the answer.
> While I am ambivalent about Ms Sturgeon in some respects at least she gets on with the job and I cannot understand this unreasoning hatred of her. Is it fear that she seems capable and comes across as a coherent and capable leader?



Does not Sturgeon have coherent, capable juniors (sometimes called ministers of that government). Smacks of not trusting those ministers or of wanting to make herself the story. I certainly don't hate her and think she is a very capable and competent leader, who is miles better than Johnson, but I always have the feeling that there is an underlying agenda other than managing the virus in her handling of the virus.

Mark Drakeford of the Senedd alternates briefings between him or the relevant minister whose department covers the main issues of the briefing, and whom he has confidence in. It is called delegation and definitely not all about him.

I believe Johnson was possibly on holiday at the time of one briefing, but it could be argued that that was no disadvantage as he is even more incoherent than his ministers.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (28 Sep 2020)

I was going to visit Lorca in Spain today (primarily for the Star Trek connection). However, although they were almost untouched in the first wave, they've announced 1000 cases in the last fortnight - in a population of 60,000! Bit of a hotspot to be avoided I think.


----------



## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

Oh turns out government do have a plan after all

Speaking to MPs, Health Secretary Matt Hancock ruled out the idea of trying to eliminate the virus and keep new cases at zero.

He pointed out that this strategy had not worked for Scotland or New Zealand - both countries have seen a resurgence of the virus.

And he rejected the notion of letting coronavirus rip among young people while trying to protect the most vulnerable, arguing that the death toll would likely be “too high to bear”.

So it’s looks like it’s suppressing the virus until a vaccine. How depressing we aren’t even doing that well either. 

Notice he glossed over NZ are now back in control and just removed the last reminding public control measure last week.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (28 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Does not Sturgeon have coherent, capable juniors (sometimes called ministers of that government). Smacks of not trusting those ministers or of wanting to make herself the story. I certainly don't hate her and think she is a very capable and competent leader, who is miles better than Johnson, but I always have the feeling that there is an underlying agenda other than managing the virus in her handling of the virus.
> 
> Mark Drakeford of the Senedd alternates briefings between him or the relevant minister whose department covers the main issues of the briefing, and whom he has confidence in. It is called delegation and definitely not all about him.
> 
> I believe Johnson was possibly on holiday at the time of one briefing, but it could be argued that that was no disadvantage as he is even more incoherent than his ministers.


If I remember correctly, Sturgeon started off with the chief Scottish medical officer, who then seemed to get confused about which was her first and second home at weekends, and had to resign. Since then Sturgeon's pretty much been the continuity role, with occasional TV appearances from the med chief.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> So it’s looks like it’s suppressing the virus until a vaccine.



I think this is a perfectly reasonable strategy for a highly connected and densely populated country. 

The problem is that we've never had it articulated clearly, and have not operationally delivered what is necessary to achieve it.

The *only* way this can be done without harsh and onerous social distancing measures is:

1. Get cases to a low level through social distancing. 
2. Get a highly effective track and trace system in place. 
3. Only relax measures very carefully once in control. 
4. Act consistently and rapidly if things go in the wrong direction. 

See: Germany, South Korea as examples. 

We managed 1 very well, from an extremely high base (see failure to act fast enough initially)

We have inexcusably and abjectly failed on the rest, and that's why we're now imposing restrictions in a wide ranging way across swathes of the population.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (28 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> .. Matt Hancock ruled out the idea of trying to eliminate the virus and keep new cases at zero.
> 
> He pointed out that this strategy had not worked for Scotland or New Zealand - both countries have seen a resurgence of the virus.
> 
> ...


I saw that. He picked two countries where it hadn't worked and ignored countries where it had, neglected the fact that NZ had got back on top of "imported" covid cases and the fact that Scotland has an open border with the most shambolic covid-managing country outside of the Americas.


----------



## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think this is a perfectly reasonable strategy for a highly connected and densely populated country.
> 
> The problem is that we've never had it articulated clearly, and have not operationally delivered what is necessary to achieve it.
> 
> ...



It all depends what they accept as low number of cases. As you say it’s pie in sky at the moment. We can’t even get the basics right. We never really went for it 1st time round either. As well as number 1 we did ok with number 3 but then got carried away.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> It all depends what they accept as low number of cases. As you say it’s pie in sky at the moment. We can’t even get the basics right. We never really went for it 1st time round either. As well as number 1 we did ok with number 3 but then got carried away.



The problem is that the government has become fixated by the entirely false dichotomy of more restrictions = bigger hit to the economy. So the plonkers paid us to go out into overcrowded restaurants to catch covid. This is literally true. 

The reality is that the worst hit of all to the economy is if the virus gets out of control. The only weapon, other than social distancing, that we have to stop this is test, track and trace. 

If cases are rising despite that, then we have to rapidly impose restrictions. If we don't, then those restrictions will still come, but have to stay in place for longer. If we remove some restrictions (schools for example) then we either need to improve testing *or* impose more restrictions. We did the opposite, we moronically told people to stop skiving, save Pret and catch covid. 

It's really, really simple. 

But our government are weak, incompetent and most of all, in denial. They are utterly incapable of leading the country.


----------



## oldwheels (28 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> If I remember correctly, Sturgeon started off with the chief Scottish medical officer, who then seemed to get confused about which was her first and second home at weekends, and had to resign. Since then Sturgeon's pretty much been the continuity role, with occasional TV appearances from the med chief.


Funny how other scandals regarding second home visits have vanished with no resignations. I have never seen what you get in England but any I have seen here there are two others there also depending on what happens to be of primary importance at the time. 
I see nothing wrong with the same person giving out actual figures and advice or new legislation. At least we know where we are with clear and unambiguous statements.


----------



## matticus (28 Sep 2020)

midlife said:


> Leaving aside the tragedy that happened, is this allowed at the moment with social distancing and rule of six?
> 
> View attachment 549673


It happened, so it was clearly allowed to happen.

I don't know what the "tragedy" was, so I'll let you decide whether to report this, and to whom.


----------



## midlife (28 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> It happened, so it was clearly allowed to happen.
> 
> I don't know what the "tragedy" was, so I'll let you decide whether to report this, and to whom.



It was the Custody Sergeant that was shot and killed last week.


----------



## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The problem is that the government has become fixated by the entirely false dichotomy of more restrictions = bigger hit to the economy. So the plonkers paid us to go out into overcrowded restaurants to catch covid. This is literally true.
> 
> The reality is that the worst hit of all to the economy is if the virus gets out of control. The only weapon, other than social distancing, that we have to stop this is test, track and trace.
> 
> ...



sadly they’ve been help along way by much of the public who believe just that same. It now looks like mp’s are going to the chance to Wade in and force though the dichotomy removing much of the measures which are trying to keep the wheels on.Sadly health has been neglected for years. The rate of neglect now how ever is mind blowing.


----------



## matticus (28 Sep 2020)

Ah right. (I used to live just down the road from there).


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> sadly they’ve been help along way by much of the public who believe just that same



Intuitively it does make sense. Unfortunately it's wrong. That requires clear, consistent leadership (NZ, Germany) to break through.


----------



## PK99 (28 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I just read that the bars in the houses of parliament have been classed as workplace canteens and therefore don't have to shut at 10pm or follow stricter mask requirements and test and trace data-gathering procedures. One rule for the mobs, no rules for the nobs.



You posted that at 1543, press reports at 1200 were already reporting that that unforseen wrinkle in the regs had been voided by parliamentary authorities choosing to close bars at 10pm, though they will continue to serve food.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (28 Sep 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> . My phone won't track any of it because it is in my handbag in a locker



Ah but if others also have their phones with the app active in adjacent lockers then all your phones will think you’ve been in close contact all day.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (28 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> You posted that at 1543, press reports at 1200 were already reporting that that unforseen wrinkle in the regs had been voided by parliamentary authorities choosing to close bars at 10pm, though they will continue to serve food.



Indeed and many work places will have canteens that need to open through the night.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (28 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> You posted that at 1543, press reports at 1200 were already reporting that that unforseen wrinkle in the regs had been voided by parliamentary authorities choosing to close bars at 10pm, though they will continue to serve food.


I hadn't seen the update. Notice it was a choice following public exposure. We don't get that choice.


----------



## stowie (28 Sep 2020)

Apparently Jon Ashworth has raised in the HoC the suggestion of having an app which tells you the COVID restrictions in the area you are in.

Sounds a really simple, good idea.

You could have an app which downloaded all the latest UK wide restrictions every day and then told you the restrictions that apply based on your home location and your current location. Seems quite a nice idea to help out as different areas go into different lockdown restrictions.


----------



## tom73 (28 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> Apparently Jon Ashworth has raised in the HoC the suggestion of having an app which tells you the COVID restrictions in the area you are in.
> 
> Sounds a really simple, good idea.
> 
> You could have an app which downloaded all the latest UK wide restrictions every day and then told you the restrictions that apply based on your home location and your current location. Seems quite a nice idea to help out as different areas go into different lockdown restrictions.


The current one tells you that in a way.


----------



## PK99 (28 Sep 2020)

stowie said:


> Apparently Jon Ashworth has raised in the HoC the suggestion of having an app which tells you the COVID restrictions in the area you are in.
> Sounds a really simple, good idea.
> You could have an app which downloaded all the latest UK wide restrictions every day and then told you the restrictions that apply based on your home location and your current location. Seems quite a nice idea to help out as different areas go into different lockdown restrictions.



Screenshot from current app.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (29 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I got my Covid-19 test result in an email this morning. It was negative. Did the swab test Thu morning before 8am (as they ask you to do that on day on collection), then put in fridge. Collected about 5pm on Thu, and result this morning. So what's that about 3.5 days (84 hours ish) from collection?
> 
> Remember this is the randomised NHS / Imperial College Covid-19 testing to inform Government action, so it may be on a fast track than other testing (if you have symptoms etc).
> 
> Edited to note you were also doing testing for the randomised Covid-19 testing from those on NHS GP registers.


Your test was on a far faster track than the ONS survey seems to be. I will have completed 4 weekly tests by midday today, so after 28 days I still haven't heard a thing. I did hear a suggestion that testing capacity in London has been reduced while the need is greater elsewhere.


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## screenman (29 Sep 2020)

When out we are seeing a lot of school kids about during the day, my son a deputy head has spotted some of his pupils out and about who should be self isolating and has made phone calls to parents to remind them of this.


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## PK99 (29 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Ah but if others also have their phones with the app active in adjacent lockers then all your phones will think you’ve been in close contact all day.



On the main page of the app is a button to switch off T&T, use it and it asks if you want a reminder in 4, 8 or 12 hours to switch back on.

Same function is also useful when at home as battery saver. E.g. overnight.

I'll only have it switched on when out and about in busy areas. E.g. not on my 3 hour country walk yesterday.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (29 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> On the main page of the app is a button to switch off T&T, use it and it asks if you want a reminder in 4, 8 or 12 hours to switch back on.
> 
> Same function is also useful when at home as battery saver. E.g. overnight.
> 
> I'll only have it switched on when out and about in busy areas. E.g. not on my 3 hour country walk yesterday.



Erm yes, hence why I said if active.


----------



## PK99 (29 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So the plonkers paid us to go out into overcrowded restaurants to catch covid. This is literally true.



No it's not.

We ate out numerous times during the scheme- not once in a crowded restaurant. All the places we chose (pubs to restaurants) had good social distancing and other covid precautions

Plonkers chose to eat in crowded restaurants.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> No it's not.
> 
> We ate out numerous times during the scheme- not once in a crowded restaurant. All the places we chose (pubs to restaurants) had good social distancing and other covid precautions
> 
> Plonkers chose to eat in crowded restaurants.



Even with good precautions, which certainly were not everywhere, eating indoors in the same space as strangers is a high risk activity. Perhaps not high enough to ban, but certainly high enough not to subsidize, especially with the risk that subsidy brings crowding.


----------



## mjr (29 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> On the main page of the app is a button to switch off T&T, [...]
> 
> Same function is also useful when at home as battery saver. E.g. overnight.


But then you won't be told if the guy who sits watching you sleep tests positive!


----------



## mjr (29 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> Plonkers chose to eat in crowded restaurants.


They still got paid too, so the previous post was correct and yours wasn't!


----------



## tom73 (29 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> No it's not.
> 
> We ate out numerous times during the scheme- not once in a crowded restaurant. All the places we chose (pubs to restaurants) had good social distancing and other covid precautions
> 
> Plonkers chose to eat in crowded restaurants.



We have to see past distancing when eating indoors you can have all the spaced out tables you want. But how many have air con that just pusher the air round and round. We have well documented cases of outbreak all down to air con and poor ventilation. At the time of eat out to help out we had no way near the right enforcement of measures in place many placers as now just gave it lip service. Also universal mask use inside restaurants was every hit and miss only now has it been made a requirement. 
Which ever way you look at eating in doors is a risk and should be limited it was pretty fool hardy back then to encourage it given testing and contact tracing was just not up to job never mind anything else.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (29 Sep 2020)

This is absolute BS - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54289152

Spyware that takes photos of you from your laptop to prove you're working. They can get that right in the sea.

I'm a salesman and I've worked for a few companies over the years. Without exception, every company that brought in some kind of monitoring system for field sales saw an increase in staff turnover and lower sales figures. I've seen trackers in cars, log in required at certain times, obsessive CRM systems (Call Record Management) that mean the staff spend more time completing CRM tasks than they do facing the customer!

If we're going to have more working from home then they'll have to put a stop to crap like this from creeps like the boss in the article.


----------



## Beebo (29 Sep 2020)

Anyone care to attempt to translate this nonsense?
Clear messaging and common sense. 

View: https://youtu.be/IhNFNPI6iIQ


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (29 Sep 2020)

Beebo said:


> Anyone care to attempt to translate this nonsense?
> Clear messaging and common sense.
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/IhNFNPI6iIQ



''Skills minister'' Gillian Keegan didn't know whether she could organise a meet up in a beer garden either. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-as-minister-fails-to-clarify-lockdown-rules


----------



## marinyork (29 Sep 2020)

The BBC are reporting that the north east has harsher measures because there is less resistance from the local councils and are game for harder measures. It's sad as it's a demonstration of the politics of it all.


----------



## MrGrumpy (29 Sep 2020)

Do you honestly believe that ? Mate at work was in Newcastle last month and he said it was absolutely nuts. Booked a table at the local spoons in the city centre and it was heaving !! Had to just forget it


----------



## marinyork (29 Sep 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Do you honestly believe that ? Mate at work was in Newcastle last month and he said it was absolutely nuts. Booked a table at the local spoons in the city centre and it was heaving !! Had to just forget it



Yes. The numbers in some parts of the north west are worse than the north east.

London's figures are very low compared to around here and I hear of pressure to bring in restrictions sooner rather than later.


----------



## tom73 (29 Sep 2020)

Beebo said:


> Anyone care to attempt to translate this nonsense?
> Clear messaging and common sense.
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/IhNFNPI6iIQ



He "misspoke" apparently 
We have a yet another treat he's to hold a press conference on Wednesday afternoon to update the public on the coronavirus crisis, but Downing Street said it was not intended to give a "specific set of new announcements". 
Nothing new in that then if only we did have specifics we'd stand a change of fixing this mess.


----------



## Beebo (29 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> ''Skills minister'' Gillian Keegan didn't know whether she could organise a meet up in a beer garden either. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-as-minister-fails-to-clarify-lockdown-rules


But her answer was “sorry i dont know” which is better than just giving a BS answer and rambling on.


----------



## cambsno (29 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> We have to see past distancing when eating indoors you can have all the spaced out tables you want. But how many have air con that just pusher the air round and round. We have well documented cases of outbreak all down to air con and poor ventilation. At the time of eat out to help out we had no way near the right enforcement of measures in place many placers as now just gave it lip service. Also universal mask use inside restaurants was every hit and miss only now has it been made a requirement.
> Which ever way you look at eating in doors is a risk and should be limited it was pretty fool hardy back then to encourage it given testing and contact tracing was just not up to job never mind anything else.



I mean, we could have just let thousands of businesses and hundreds of thousands of jobs go to the wall instead!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Sep 2020)

cambsno said:


> I mean, we could have just let thousands of businesses and hundreds of thousands of jobs go to the wall instead!



They will be more likely to go to the wall now all these new restrictions have been brought in.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (29 Sep 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> ''Skills minister'' Gillian Keegan didn't know whether she could organise a meet up in a beer garden either. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-as-minister-fails-to-clarify-lockdown-rules



Actually that gets my respect. In my work I far prefer someone saying “Sorry, I don’t know, but I can find out for you if you’d like” then giving a bullshit made up on the spur of the moment answer.


----------



## fossyant (29 Sep 2020)

Well that's North Wales in financial ruin. Better go collect the bikes from our caravan tomorrow. Businesses were far better organised down there than in Manchester. Haven't gone out at home, only at selected places in N Wales.


----------



## mjr (29 Sep 2020)

cambsno said:


> I mean, we could have just let thousands of businesses and hundreds of thousands of jobs go to the wall instead!


Better that than even more go to the wall later, surely? It annoys me that this is still being portrayed as a choice between health and wealth. If we screw up the health, it'll consume so much wealth it'll dwarf the costs of protecting health early.


----------



## mjr (29 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Well that's North Wales in financial ruin.


What's happened?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (29 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> What's happened?



They told tourists to fark off. Oh wait they’ve been doing that for decades.


----------



## tom73 (29 Sep 2020)

A few good days of trade will not save many a much more targeted intervention over short to medium term. Would have been much more proactive. We can open things up but with right interventions in place backed up by effective track and trace. Back then we had neither. This is not a battle of health or the economy. It’s a public health emergency you can’t cut corners. That costs lives and much more to the economy. Plenty other parts of the world got it and now are in no way near a mess as we are.


----------



## tom73 (29 Sep 2020)

Worst effected area in Wales is Blaenau Gwent which has a rate of 307.7 per 100,000 over seven days. That should be a worry to us all and shows just what can happen.


----------



## tom73 (29 Sep 2020)

The government really do mean business with track and trace. Now Dido is getting a new mate.Key role been given to Mike Coupe ex head of Sainsbury's who famously got filmed singing “We're in the Money"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54345950

You can’t make this stuff up if you’d not laugh you’d cry.


----------



## Rusty Nails (29 Sep 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> They told tourists to fark off. Oh wait they’ve been doing that for decades.



North Walians are more likely to say cachau bant.


----------



## tom73 (30 Sep 2020)

Anyone in North of England totally confused about what you can or can't do. The whole legislation just covering areas affected has been published. It's all in here https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1057/pdfs/uksi_20201057_en.pdf


----------



## raleighnut (30 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone in North of England totally confused about what you can or can't do. The whole legislation just covering areas affected has been published. It's all in here https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1057/pdfs/uksi_20201057_en.pdf


Well that's clear.


----------



## Adam4868 (30 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone in North of England totally confused about what you can or can't do. The whole legislation just covering areas affected has been published. It's all in here https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1057/pdfs/uksi_20201057_en.pdf


Can't see many people flicking through that this morning.


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## tom73 (30 Sep 2020)

@raleighnut @Adam4868 that's the problem from the start and continues to be sadly.


----------



## matticus (30 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> _I mean, we could have just let thousands of businesses and hundreds of thousands of jobs go to the wall instead! _
> 
> They will be more likely to go to the wall now all these new restrictions have been brought in.


The restrictions are due to OVERALL numbers going up. You don't know which relaxation has caused this, or if it was just people abusing existing regulations; maybe in parks, homes, factories ...

There is nothing binary about these things.


----------



## Adam4868 (30 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> @raleighnut @Adam4868 that's the problem from the start and continues to be sadly.


As in Sharma on the news this morning...
"We can't be expected to know what the rules are every single minute, that's not fair," says Minister who makes the rules up as he goes along.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Sep 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54346001

BBC survey of responses to 'what if you had to isolate?'.

At least two people I have spoken to (despite being what I would ordinarily call intelligent & rational) have said that they would not obey the rules if it meant not seeing other family members in person.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Sep 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-54349548

If true this is insane. Partying students at Uni.


----------



## matticus (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-54349548
> 
> If true this is insane. Partying students at Uni.


Do you remember the good old days, when we worried that a bike ride of more than an hour would threaten the lives of everyone in the county?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> The restrictions are due to OVERALL numbers going up. You don't know which relaxation has caused this, or if it was just people abusing existing regulations; maybe in parks, homes, factories ...
> 
> There is nothing binary about these things.



Sure, you can't isolate individual effects. 

But we _paid_ people to engage in high risk activities at a time of rising numbers. That was nuts. And now, as it takes longer to reduce numbers than they did to rise, businesses will net suffer more as a result.

This is the lesson of the last six months: it costs more in both economic damage and deaths to bring numbers down than it does to suppress them up front.


----------



## Rusty Nails (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-54349548
> 
> If true this is insane. Partying students at Uni.



Let’s not demonise students. The photos from many towns of people congregating outside pubs at 10.00 pm, going into off-licences, and on to house parties shows that non-students, of all ages, can be just as bad.

The specific problem in university cities is caused by having so many people in the same area (student accommodation) rather than any worse attitudes of students.

The last time I looked towns like Merthyr or Ebbw Vale, with high infection rates, don’t have universities.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Let’s not demonise students. *The photos from many towns of people congregating outside pubs at 10.00 pm, going into off-licences, and on to house parties shows that non-students, of all ages, can be just as bad.*
> 
> The specific problem in university cities is caused by having so many people in the same area (student accommodation) rather than any worse attitudes of students.
> 
> The last time I looked towns like Merthyr or Ebbw Vale, with high infection rates, don’t have universities.



I don't think that's demonising students at all. It's merely posting a current News article into the appropriate NACA thread with my view on it. 

It's no different to the many posts regarding various sectors of society within NACA in general and the CV threads in particular.

If they were partying as reported then I stand by my comment as it's insane.

FTR: I agree with the sentence I've bolded above.


----------



## tom73 (30 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Let’s not demonise students. The photos from many towns of people congregating outside pubs at 10.00 pm, going into off-licences, and on to house parties shows that non-students, of all ages, can be just as bad.
> 
> The specific problem in university cities is caused by having so many people in the same area (student accommodation) rather than any worse attitudes of students.
> 
> The last time I looked towns like Merthyr or Ebbw Vale, with high infection rates, don’t have universities.



But that's too easy best to find a new scape goat before you get found out for using your current one. 
High case numbers in other areas have been coming from areas of mass high density housing and households long before the students arrived. Unlike students they did not appear all at once and are mostly areas of poverty which no-one likes to talk about or give media air time to.


----------



## mjr (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-54349548
> 
> If true this is insane. Partying students at Uni.


With 160ish unis, it was always likely to happen somewhere. The education ministers should resign for allowing student accommodation to reopen when we know worker accommodation has been outbreak hotspots.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> NACA thread



'scuse my ignorance - what is NACA?


----------



## Mo1959 (30 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> 'scuse my ignorance - what is NACA?


News and current affairs?


----------



## vickster (30 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> 'scuse my ignorance - what is NACA?


This section of the forum


----------



## fossyant (30 Sep 2020)

Just been in our caravan site office to pay the bills and next year's deposit

The site is in Flintshire, cross the road to the field, thats Denbighshire. They can't drive a mile to Tesco, as thats in the next county, so can only turn left and drive 8 miles to the next shop.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I don't think that's demonising students at all. It's merely posting a current News article into the appropriate NACA thread with my view on it.
> 
> It's no different to the many posts regarding various sectors of society within NACA in general and the CV threads in particular.
> 
> ...


Police had to break up student parties at Edinburgh Uni too last Friday


----------



## Rusty Nails (30 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> Just been in our caravan site office to pay the bills and next year's deposit
> 
> The site is in Flintshire, cross the road to the field, thats Denbighshire. They can't drive a mile to Tesco, as thats in the next county, so can only turn left and drive 8 miles to the next shop.



I must confess to having flouted the local lockdown restrictions yesterday.

I rode down to Cardiff Bay yesterday, crossed the barrage and rode back on the road along the side of Penarth Marina for less than a mile before crossing back into the safety of Cardiff to ride along the Ely trail. 

I was a bit nervous at the far end of the Marina where there were a couple of armed policemen standing outside their van, but I think they were on a break from the Senedd, having a quick cup of coffee.


----------



## mjr (30 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I rode down to Cardiff Bay yesterday, crossed the barrage and rode back on the road along the side of Penarth Marina for less than a mile before crossing back into the safety of Cardiff to ride along the Ely trail.


Did you pass any "Welcome to Glamorgan" signs or could you claim ignorance of the precise route of the border? Governments tend only to sign borders on the main motoring roads because cycling scum don't deserve to know which county they're in - or country! I've ridden over unsigned France-Belgium and Belgium-Germany crossings and I bet there's a fair few England-Wales ones unsigned.


----------



## Rusty Nails (30 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Did you pass any "Welcome to Glamorgan" signs or could you claim ignorance of the precise route of the border? Governments tend only to sign borders on the main motoring roads because cycling scum don't deserve to know which county they're in - or country! I've ridden over unsigned France-Belgium and Belgium-Germany crossings and I bet there's a fair few England-Wales ones unsigned.



AFAIK no signs as the barrage and the bridge aren't highways.

I will claim ignorance of anything if it helps me.

Nerdy P.S. Glamorgan vanished years ago as a local authority or county. I went from South Glam to Vale of Glam and back.


----------



## tom73 (30 Sep 2020)

Just out of interest how are the rules going down ? They sound pretty more firmer that here and already MP's are getting in twist about them not not mention joe blogs.


----------



## fossyant (30 Sep 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just out of interest how are the rules going down ? They sound pretty more firmer that here and already MP's are getting in twist about them not not mention joe blogs.



Not well I don't think. I suggested to the site staff that they jump on a bike to go to the shops, along the NCN !


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-54349548
> 
> If true this is insane. Partying students at Uni.



What on earth did we expect? 

1) 18 year olds are at extremely low risk of any personal ill effects from meeting together - close to zero mortality at this age range, and only very occasional severe symptoms.

2) 18 year olds were stopped from taking final school exams, leaving events and the like, and put into close proximity with their families and nobody else for weeks or months on end.

3) We send hundreds of thousands of these 18 year olds away from home for the first time, to cities where they know literally nobody. 

4) We expect them to meet no more than six together at once, and spend most of their time in a single bedroom attending online courses. And charge them nine grand for the experience.

It's insane that we ever expected this to work. It's doubly insane that nothing was done to mitigate this, except in a few institutions who have (off their own bat) instituted regular testing.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What on earth did we expect?
> 
> 1) 18 year olds are at extremely low risk of any personal ill effects from meeting together - close to zero mortality at this age range, and only very occasional severe symptoms.
> 
> ...



I guess, with a modicum of effort, a case of some sorts could be made for every sector of society to flout the rules.


----------



## matticus (30 Sep 2020)

I read that as explaining the human behaviour - not excusing it.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I guess, with a modicum of effort, a case of some sorts could be made for every sector of society to flout the rules.



Noting that you didn't address any of the points made, every sector needs to have a realistic framework in place if they are to follow the rules. For instance, we are now paying low income workers who have to self isolate, rather than expecting them to starve their families.

It's totally unrealistic IMO for unsupervised 18yos in the circumstances freshers are placed to universally follow these rules.

We should both be doing more to support them, more to mitigate (testing!) and more to enforce if we really want this to work, or moving to an online term from home with reduced fees. Blaming the individuals doesn't help.

The plan for return of students looks to have been very simple: "Cross our fingers, hope for the best". Yet another failure to think ahead and plan.

[Edit: actually "Grab their cash, cross our fingers, hope for the best" might better get across the root causes]


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Noting that you didn't address any of the points made, every sector needs to have a realistic framework in place if they are to follow the rules. For instance, we are now paying low income workers who have to self isolate, rather than expecting them to starve their families.
> 
> It's totally unrealistic IMO for unsupervised 18yos in the circumstances freshers are placed to universally follow these rules.
> 
> ...



I thought I'd done 3) & 4).

1) Yes, they are at low risk but they can spread it and the less spreaders we have the better.

2) And? I genuinely don't know what you are getting at there - sorry.

***

The Uni's should be revising the fees not the State. If the Uni's then have a viability problem then the State should step in as per other businesses.

It seems a bit of a contradiction to ask for more enforcement to help the students when some aren't abiding by the rules themselves. If I've misunderstood your enforcement point my apologies.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Sep 2020)

Have to say that I do agree with the BoE economist that undue pessimism will hold the economic recovery back.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54355395


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> It seems a bit of a contradiction to ask for more enforcement to help the students when some aren't abiding by the rules themselves



I was trying to make the point that if we expect compliance, we need lots of carrot and a bit of stick. 

What we've done instead is dump the donkeys in a field then complain that they're grazing. It's crazy.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> ) And? I genuinely don't know what you are getting at there - sorry.



That if you confine an 18yo for months on end then suddenly set them free, you should expect them to let off a bit of steam.


----------



## mjr (30 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Nerdy P.S. Glamorgan vanished years ago as a local authority or county. I went from South Glam to Vale of Glam and back.


See, it's completely farking confusing! Those sounds like boroughs or districts not counties! 



tom73 said:


> Just out of interest how are the rules going down ?


Like a wireless abseiler? Like a plane abruptly separated from its wings? Like a drunken clown who's just had one leg cut off at the knee?


----------



## PK99 (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I guess, with a modicum of effort, a case of some sorts could be made for every sector of society to flout the rules.



I've had it, I'm immune.


----------



## fossyant (30 Sep 2020)

It's going to happen and has with new Uni students - probably quite tame to a normal year. It had been expected by the Uni's but I don't think they expected how fast it spread. We've got over 170 confirmed cases, have just got 1500 kits for the students to use (results in a couple of days) - I'd expect a whole lot more.

We've had parents threatening the Uni with legal action - TBH the students were free to go (they were prevented initially) but had they actually gone out, having been told to isolate due to exposure, they would have been landed with a fine as Manchester is in enhanced conditions - so what do we do. Let them go out, with a bunch of coppers ready to fine them. They have had a good deal - £50 Asda voucher, 2 weeks free rent, personal hygene products handed out free, negotiated Asda and Amazon free delivery, and have staff on hand 24/7. It's taken a few days to organise, but all this is now in place for the further infections. The student's can leave for home, but they must do it covid securely - i.e. in a car !


----------



## tom73 (30 Sep 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Noting that you didn't address any of the points made, every sector needs to have a realistic framework in place if they are to follow the rules. For instance, we are now paying low income workers who have to self isolate, rather than expecting them to starve their families.
> 
> It's totally unrealistic IMO for unsupervised 18yos in the circumstances freshers are placed to universally follow these rules.
> 
> ...


The current University mess looks to have done no-one any favours even north of the border look to have been happy to go along with the push to get them back in. I think you are spot on about the money let's face it it's not about much else. One VC in a interview even commented that having posted on SM and Youtube about the "covid measures" it had taken applications went up. I thought it was for everyone's safety. One thing for sure the current publicity is not going to do them much good with fee's and cost's the way they are now.
Uni's still have a lot to learn about that you can't carry on treating you're paying customers like they do. 
To say they are suppose to be centres of learning they don't look to have done much reading around this or much planning.


----------



## mjr (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Have to say that I do agree with the BoE economist that undue pessimism will hold the economic recovery back.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54355395


The word "undue" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that claim!

He seems to ignore that "fears about the future" are mainly due to discouraging news about the present and that the "vertiginous 20% [rise] in the third quarter" undoing the second-quarter lockdown drop is starting to look like it may have been bought at a very great cost in both state debt and new covid cases.

We will never know whether the fears were "undue" unless we ignore them - but is it responsible to ignore the fears and not attempt to mitigate them in case they are due fears? I bet no-one will dare do that and so Mr Haldane's headline claim can never be proven or disproven. It's useless noise and great politicking for the Bank to overrule the NHS in running the show.


----------



## mjr (30 Sep 2020)

fossyant said:


> The student's can leave for home, but they must do it covid securely - i.e. in a car !


I still don't understand how a vehicle pumping out its cabin air unfiltered is really "covid securely" except in a sarcastic sense of the phrase.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Have to say that I do agree with the BoE economist that undue pessimism will hold the economic recovery back.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54355395



I suggest that the best way to engender economic optimism is a clear strategy to keep the virus under control, and a clear strategy to deliver a Brexit deal protecting trade with the EU as far as possible. 

If give the government 4/10 and 2/10 respectively. 

Economic pessimism is not "undue", its directly caused by govt incompetence and ideology.


----------



## fossyant (30 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> I still don't understand how a vehicle pumping out its cabin air unfiltered is really "covid securely" except in a sarcastic sense of the phrase.



Well, it's got to be better than sat on public transport when you are 'positive' - thats what they are getting at.

Just a thought. All these students are complaining about being 'restricted' in University Halls. What's happening to those in privately owned 'halls' - e.g. what's known as 'The Student Castle' or 'Circle Square' these are massive flat complexes - students would be 'stuffed' there as there is no-one to look after them.


----------



## mjr (30 Sep 2020)

Press conference live now:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/MunishDass/status/1311335944432345090


Rumour is that conference 100 is the start of a new weekly Johnson waffle.


----------



## Rusty Nails (30 Sep 2020)

Does anyone know if other countries have had similar problems with their universities?


----------



## mjr (30 Sep 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Does anyone know if other countries have had similar problems with their universities?


Oh yes. Some countries like Germany start (and finish) later in the year than the UK and some like Italy seem to have gone online more, but some start uni earlier so the UK has basically followed other countries off this particular cliff. Here's a report mainly on French universities and the #balanceTaFac (unmask your uni) hashtag from Voice of America: https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/virus-clusters-french-universities-give-europe-lesson


----------



## vickster (30 Sep 2020)

PK99 said:


> I've had it, I'm immune.


Are you? For sure? For ever?


----------



## PK99 (30 Sep 2020)

vickster said:


> Are you? For sure? For ever?



I was joining in the _"I guess, with a modicum of effort, a case of some sorts could be made for every sector of society to flout the rules."_ idea


----------



## matticus (30 Sep 2020)

mjr said:


> Oh yes. Some countries like Germany start (and finish) later in the year than the UK and some like Italy seem to have gone online more, but some start uni earlier so the UK has basically followed other countries off this particular cliff. Here's a report mainly on French universities and the #balanceTaFac (unmask your uni) hashtag from Voice of America: https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/virus-clusters-french-universities-give-europe-lesson


That's an interesting read. It's often weird reading a foreign view on your own country:


Spoiler: for brevity:



In the UK, most universities do not begin their fall terms until late September or early October, and are readying big changes. 

At the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, where the fall semester began Monday, many classes are being taught online — other than laboratory sessions or other practical instruction where hands-on learning is essential. Student societies are barred from meeting in person, and many students arriving from overseas will have to quarantine for two weeks in line with government protocols. 

At University College London, *only a quarter of the buildings will be occupied at one time.* Teaching spaces will incorporate social distancing and everyone must wear face-masks. The university created an app for students to alert authorities if they have symptoms and plans to test up to 1,000 students and staff a day to keep the campus safe. 

"I've got a public health expert team that are advising me when it's appropriate to extend testing beyond those that are immediately symptomatic,'' Michael Arthur, the president and provost at UCL. "So I think we're reasonably confident if we do have an outbreak — and I'm sure we will have, we're just playing with statistics — that we can move in and contain it very rapidly." 

Student housing has been adapted to allow those who test positive to self-isolate. 
>>>>>>>>>>>
My bold: As an aside - what the hell is the point of that?? This is something we've seen since March; authoritires RESTRICTING space for people. I just don't get it


----------



## raleighnut (30 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> That's an interesting read. It's often weird reading a foreign view on your own country:
> 
> 
> Spoiler: for brevity:
> ...


Yep they should be creating more space to allow distancing.


----------



## mjr (30 Sep 2020)

matticus said:


> My bold: As an aside - what the hell is the point of that?? This is something we've seen since March; authoritires RESTRICTING space for people. I just don't get it


From my memory of visits to various bits of UCL around Bloomsbury over the years, there is often congestion around their entrance/exits, so I suspect limiting total building use is an attempt to avoid shockingly long queues if everyone is trying to keep 2m apart, or crowding if people tire of waiting (or think covid is a hoax  ). The UCL main building may have large airy cloisters, but even the doors into and out of them are still fairly small and I don't think there's much scope for knocking new entrance doors into many of the buildings!


----------



## tom73 (30 Sep 2020)

4 month stock pile of PPE that's not going to touch the sides. Given that all NHS and primary care services are wearing PPE as routine for all patient contact. Never mind an increase in Covid cases adding to the mix it look's like yet again. The government have learned nothing and the 600+ health and social care staff deaths mean little.


----------



## cambsno (30 Sep 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Have to say that I do agree with the BoE economist that undue pessimism will hold the economic recovery back.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54355395


I think our stupid brexit policy/plan will hold our economy back even more.


----------



## raleighnut (30 Sep 2020)

cambsno said:


> I think our stupid brexit policy/plan will hold our economy back even more.


Yep but hey.................................Blue Passports.


----------



## mjr (1 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Another poultry factory outbreak https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health...bernard-matthews-employees-covid-19-1-6859074
> 
> It'll be interesting whether the more cooperative approach of the more paternalistic company limits the outbreak size more than the last one did.


So much for that theory! It seems this outbreak may be smaller because it's a transport outbreak linked to car sharing following a bus fare hike by the company, possibly combined with low pay and boss pressure to keep working instead of isolating. I'd not noticed that the company was taken over by a "poultry giant" a few years ago. Source: local BBC radio and https://unitelive.org/penny-pinching/


----------



## mjr (1 Oct 2020)

Paris probably following Marseille onto "alerte maximale" along with Toulouse, Grenoble, Lyon and Lille. Bars, restos, sports and culture all closed. Health minister to announce this evening. New cases 253/100k/day. Similar to Newcastle and Manchester.

Madrid reentering lockdown. Not quite as tight as before but now essential travel in and out only.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Yep but hey.................................Blue Passports.



Is that Covid Blue?


----------



## mjr (1 Oct 2020)

The new Belgian govt has an interesting solution to needing to present itself to the whole 150 MPs while obeying social distancing and only occupying every other seat: use the European Parliament chamber which has 900 seats in the horseshoe plus a load of gallery seats. Benefits of EU membership


----------



## Rusty Nails (1 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Have to say that I do agree with the BoE economist that undue pessimism will hold the economic recovery back.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54355395


----------



## mjr (1 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> View attachment 550132


But this is a real 50p coin, not a spoof:


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Oct 2020)

How cool is this?


View: https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1311593778348777473?s=20


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Oct 2020)

Covid-positive MP Margaret Ferrier suspended over Parliament visit https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54379026


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (1 Oct 2020)

Each day the Zoe Covid-19 symptom app gives an estimation of the number of active cases in the participant's area. I remember seeing it being in the 40s perhaps 4 weeks ago. This was followed by a rapid rise from very shortly after unlockdown. Just over a
week ago, I thought I'd make a note of the daily increase. At which point the numbers stopped their steady rise and started bouncing up and down around the 830 mark. 

This is for Lewisham borough, London. Note that London went into this thing first and almost blind so had the steepest rise in cases around March. It then had a fairly smooth decline in cases until the go back to work to keep the NHS busy moment of folly. The figures are extrapolated from a base of just over 4 million nationally and it works with self-reporting. The stopping of the inexorable rise may be a statistical blip and I'll try to keep a tally over the next few weeks but it does look like the expected increase in cases here has slowed down.


----------



## tom73 (1 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> Well, it's got to be better than sat on public transport when you are 'positive' - thats what they are getting at.
> 
> Just a thought. All these students are complaining about being 'restricted' in University Halls. What's happening to those in privately owned 'halls' - e.g. what's known as 'The Student Castle' or 'Circle Square' these are massive flat complexes - students would be 'stuffed' there as there is no-one to look after them.



Looks like if your in private halls you’ve more to worry about than just Covid. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-54376899


----------



## raleighnut (2 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Looks like if your in private halls you’ve more to worry about than just Covid.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-54376899


Let's face it Students have become a 'Cash Cow' for unscrupulous landlords.


----------



## tom73 (2 Oct 2020)

Can't beat money well spent. 
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...failed-boost-finances-uk-hospitality-industry


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (2 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Can't beat money well spent.
> https://www.theguardian.com/busines...failed-boost-finances-uk-hospitality-industry


I thought it was a bizarre policy from the start. It seemed to come out of the blue with no noticeable clamour beforehand to subsidise restaurants. Was it thoroughly researched and costed first? If a Labour government had come up with this they'd be getting pelters.


----------



## tom73 (2 Oct 2020)

Can we fix the testing we have before we add even more private companies to the mix? 
Using a company that runs airport lounges is not a good start. 
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/...-could-start-within-weeks-says-heathrow-chief


----------



## matticus (2 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Can't beat money well spent.
> https://www.theguardian.com/busines...failed-boost-finances-uk-hospitality-industry


Nonsense. Did anyone expect the sector to be back to normal? Of course not.
You betray your prejudices there I'm afraid!


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Each day the Zoe Covid-19 symptom app gives an estimation of the number of active cases in the participant's area. I remember seeing it being in the 40s perhaps 4 weeks ago. This was followed by a rapid rise from very shortly after unlockdown. Just over a
> week ago, I thought I'd make a note of the daily increase. At which point the numbers stopped their steady rise and started bouncing up and down around the 830 mark.
> 
> This is for Lewisham borough, London. Note that London went into this thing first and almost blind so had the steepest rise in cases around March. It then had a fairly smooth decline in cases until the go back to work to keep the NHS busy moment of folly. The figures are extrapolated from a base of just over 4 million nationally and it works with self-reporting. The stopping of the inexorable rise may be a statistical blip and I'll try to keep a tally over the next few weeks but it does look like the expected increase in cases here has slowed down.
> View attachment 550169



The scale on the left is what? You haven’t specified the units on the graph.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Oct 2020)

Donald Trump has tested positive for Covid-19. No surprises there.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (2 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The scale on the left is what? You haven’t specified the units on the graph.


Estimated number of active cases, Lewisham borough. Sorry, I thought that would be clear from the words and numbers before. 854 today.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Estimated number of active cases, Lewisham borough. Sorry, I thought that would be clear from the words and numbers before. 854 today.



Ah so just over 13% of people in Lewisham have Covid-19


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (2 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Ah so just over 13% of people in Lewisham have Covid-19


No, out of a population as at 2018 of 303,536, there are 854 active cases.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> No, out of a population as at 2018 of 303,536, there are 854 active cases.



The active cases is out of those contributing. So it’s 854 / 6496, which is 13% surely?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (2 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> The active cases is out of those contributing. So it’s 854 / 6496, which is 13% surely?
> 
> View attachment 550250


The figure of active cases is extrapolated to estimate the actual number of cases, not that there are 854 respondents reporting symptoms. If not, they'd need a far darker shade of red to represent the borough.


----------



## mjr (2 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Donald Trump has tested positive for Covid-19. No surprises there.


Is it surprising that some Trumpets are claiming Biden infected Trump deliberately at the debate?

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/DeAnna4Congress/status/1311959767842250752


----------



## All uphill (2 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Is it surprising that some Trumpets are claiming Biden infected Trump deliberately at the debate?
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/DeAnna4Congress/status/1311959767842250752



Just when I think I know how low the Trumpets can go, they find another lower level. Amazing.


----------



## tom73 (2 Oct 2020)

Easy to use and understand Local lockdown lookup website just add your postcode. 
https://dracos.co.uk/made/local-lockdown-lookup/
Not perfect in placers but seeing it's just a guy who's get it up and running it's pretty good.


----------



## classic33 (2 Oct 2020)

Well in a local population of approximately 12,500, the fourth positive case was confirmed this time last week.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Is it surprising that some Trumpets are claiming Biden infected Trump deliberately at the debate?
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/DeAnna4Congress/status/1311959767842250752




It shows you just how rotten American public life has become. 

That woman isn't just a nutjob, she's a nutjob republican candidate for Congress. 

Very depressing.


----------



## oldwheels (2 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Donald Trump has tested positive for Covid-19. No surprises there.


Fake news just before the election to get sympathy?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Oct 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Fake news just before the election to get sympathy?



I'm not sure this conspiracy theory is discernibly better than the nutjob "Biden infected him" one above


----------



## mjr (2 Oct 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Fake news just before the election to get sympathy?


Wouldn't put it past him. Let's see if an obese seventysomething leader fares better than our overweight fiftysomething leader. You'd expect him to be taking steroids and plasma and whatever else is thought to help - but I wonder if they've hidden the bleach?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Wouldn't put it past him. Let's see if an obese seventysomething leader fares better than our overweight fiftysomething leader. You'd expect him to be taking steroids and plasma and whatever else is thought to help - but I wonder if they've hidden the bleach?



Nah Trump drinks bleach straight with a whisky chaser


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Oct 2020)

Just been in local shop. Just me and one shop assistant wearing masks. Isn’t it compulsory now?


----------



## raleighnut (2 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Just been in local shop. Just me and one shop assistant wearing masks. Isn’t it compulsory now?


Yep, well it should be but no fecker seems to be enforcing it


----------



## raleighnut (2 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Nah Trump drinks bleach straight with a *Diet Pepsi* chaser


FTFY the fecker is a tee total, or should that be a total T*** 

Anyway he's supposed to not drink alcohol so expect a return of 'Prohibition' in the near future, on the upside a bunch of his mates will get richer selling 'Moonshine'


----------



## matticus (2 Oct 2020)

I've lost track - does anyone (assuming ENG) have any power to enforce it? 

Anyway, if you're given plenty of space it makes feck-all difference, so best not to stress about what you can't control.
(unless you plan to go vigilante on their asses, of course!)


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> FTFY the fecker is a tee total, or should that be a total T***
> 
> Anyway he's supposed to not drink alcohol so expect a return of 'Prohibition' in the near future, on the upside a bunch of his mates will get richer selling 'Moonshine'



That is naughty as you aren’t quoting what I wrote. Tsk tsk.


----------



## mjr (2 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Yep, well it should be but no fecker seems to be enforcing it


We'd need to have spare police officers left for that to happen...


----------



## CanucksTraveller (2 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Yep, well it should be but no fecker seems to be enforcing it



I think it's so difficult to enforce, even if those charged with enforcing it are full of resolve. But your average Tesco worker, they really won't want the hassle. Given how self entitled many people are these days, as a supermarket worker you can pretty much safely assume that a non-mask wearer is just dying to be challenged so they can get righteous about it. 
I was in Morrissons last week and a big argument was going on, a compliant customer had clearly challenged a family of non-mask wearers and dragged a Manager over; The accused father was on such a high horse. Going on about his wife having anxiety, this was her first time out of the house in months, she was moved to tears to be shouted at like this, she may never leave the house again if this is how people are, how dare he, blah blah blah. The wife was stood there looking, well, just bored really. Anxiety my ass. Dad had clearly said "we'll do what we want, no-one will say anything" and I reckon he could try it on another ten times and be right. Most won't challenge. 

Not supermarket related I know, but I work for an airline that does enforce it, and enforces it strongly. We tell people right up front that they have to wear a mask to fly, (medical exemptions apply), we tell them at booking, we tell them at check in, we text them, we email them, and finally we address it at the airport departure gate, so when people try it on in flight we won't have it. 
Sill I'm up to my neck at the moment with cases where we're banning people, 400 so far, and the excuses just go on and on and on. "They don't work", "I can't breathe", "It's my race you have an issue with", "I have a right not to wear", I've even had one who said "I'm a military veteran, I fought so that people wouldn't be forced to wear a mask". I must admit, I wasn't aware of the war on paper masks. 

Unfortunately, people love to try it on these days, and if you want to have a strong policy you need to be ready to fight them all the way. A shelf stacker isn't prepared to have those fights every ten minutes for 8 quid an hour. Who can blame them, it's simply not worth the aggro and the non-wearers know this.


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## tom73 (2 Oct 2020)

The place my mate runs enforcers it however the difference to most placers is they don't expect staff to do it. They expect management to do it. The big issues was the guidelines made it harder. But now the bar area is included it may get easier. All they ask as proof you can't is to take a few minutes and download the card off the government website. They've found the one's who haven't/can't be bothered are the same way when it comes to wearing a mask.

Edit :- 
I should also add that unlike many placers they've taken the time and money. To make sure all staff are disability aware and as a business are fully welcoming and have a good few regular customers who have disabilities.


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## raleighnut (2 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> We'd need to have spare police officers left for that to happen...


Not so long ago the local Co-op had a bloke on the door enforcing mask wearing but no longer  likewise the 2m rule was stuck to apart from the odd idiot. Now it seems a 'freeforall'.


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## icowden (2 Oct 2020)

I think supermarkets should have some fun. They could do some public service announcements.

"Gentlemen - when you get dressed in the morning, do you leave your dangly bits outside your pants? I'm guessing not - so by the same token, please put your nose BACK inside your facemask..."

or

"Ladies and Gentlemen - stop going commando - put that face mask on, try caring about other people just this once..."

or

"Fun fact of the day. You can carry on a conversation on a mobile phone whilst wearing a facemask! Or hang up - and GO OUTSIDE"


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## mjr (2 Oct 2020)

icowden said:


> I think supermarkets should have some fun. They could do some public service announcements.
> 
> "Gentlemen - when you get dressed in the morning, do you leave your dangly bits outside your pants? I'm guessing not - so by the same token, please put your nose BACK inside your facemask..."


I've already expressed my hatred of that argument earlier in this thread. Hearing that would tempt me to uncover my nose just to annoy the idiot on the PA.

Plus, sadly, some men do indeed hang their dangly bits out in public. There was a mayor of some town in the news this week convicted of something like that in a motorway service station toilet... although I think part of the problem was it wasn't all dangly.



> or
> 
> "Ladies and Gentlemen - stop going commando - put that face mask on, try caring about other people just this once..."


Well that's going to fark up the mental health of people with conditions like severe asthma even further at this time when they're probably already pretty worried. Not good. Be kind.


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## raleighnut (2 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> I've already expressed my hatred of that argument earlier in this thread. Hearing that would tempt me to uncover my nose just to annoy the idiot on the PA.
> 
> Plus, sadly, some men do indeed hang their dangly bits out in public. There was a mayor of some town in the news this week convicted of something like that in a motorway service station toilet... although I think part of the problem was it wasn't all dangly.
> 
> ...


By the same token i had to go into the City today, there were some people wearing masks on the street. Now the only thing that masks/face coverings do is stop you passing germs on to other people in enclosed spaces (or coughing onto produce/goods in shops) why can the general public understand this, are people really that stupid.


----------



## mjr (2 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> By the same token i had to go into the City today, there were some people wearing masks on the street. Now the only thing that masks/face coverings do is stop you passing germs on to other people in enclosed spaces (or coughing onto produce/goods in shops) why can the general public understand this, are people really that stupid.


Maybe they were just outside temporarily between enclosed spaces? From the gov.uk/coronavirus guidance on face coverings: "avoid taking it off and putting it back on a lot in quick succession (for example, when leaving and entering shops on a high street)"


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## Rusty Nails (2 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> By the same token i had to go into the City today, there were some people wearing masks on the street. Now the only thing that masks/face coverings do is stop you passing germs on to other people in enclosed spaces (or coughing onto produce/goods in shops) why can the general public understand this, are people really that stupid.



Possibly just over-cautious, which is more related to personality or severity of underlying health conditions than stupidity. Or as @mjr said.

Unless it can be proved that wearing a mask outdoors is actually harmful in spreading the virus there is nothing for anyone to criticise.


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## tom73 (2 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> By the same token i had to go into the City today, there were some people wearing masks on the street. Now the only thing that masks/face coverings do is stop you passing germs on to other people in enclosed spaces (or coughing onto produce/goods in shops) why can the general public understand this, are people really that stupid.



No but what can expect when the basic message on ways of transmission are not being made clear in any government public health messaging. In wide open public spaces that allow for good social distancing it's not really required. But it makes perfect sense and should be encouraged in part enclosed public spacers which reduce good ventilation. Or in crowded public placers which make social distancing hard to achieve. Like my town centre for example also if you go from one shop to another it's a lot less bother just keep one on. As I do both I must be stupid or I have taken the time to read the evidence and asked a certain person who's qualified both in infection control and public health.


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## marinyork (2 Oct 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Unfortunately, people love to try it on these days, and if you want to have a strong policy you need to be ready to fight them all the way. A shelf stacker isn't prepared to have those fights every ten minutes for 8 quid an hour. Who can blame them, it's simply not worth the aggro and the non-wearers know this.



It's never going to be a comparison with an airline. Airlines are more heavily unionised and have a health and safety culture and communication channels on it bedded for some decades. Supermarkets are as far in some cases as it's possible to be from this.

In a supermarket if someone gets assaulted the managers acquiesce and when the cops come round they say to the managers what fecking planet are you on and to the workers how do you put up with this stuff? Best case scenario is if someone assaults someone probably more seriously than you'd imagine they get a shop life time ban. That's it. Usually it doesn't go anywhere and depending on the shop they'll get a voucher to spend and the complainee will go on twitter and moan about the place.

If you tell someone to wear a mask in a large supermarket some of them will write to head office and then the process will spiral, someone might be suspended from their job and the manager will wine and dine the complainee in a customer restaurant. That sounds like complete fiction, but that's what really happens in some chains. The larger supermarkets you may have 1 or 2 security guards. Managers aren't around. You get the idea. I asked my old establishments about mask issues and they said they'd had issues from August onwards. 

Managers and head offices know the score, some are very reluctant to put up any signs saying you cannot do xyz.


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## marinyork (2 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> By the same token i had to go into the City today, there were some people wearing masks on the street. Now the only thing that masks/face coverings do is stop you passing germs on to other people in enclosed spaces (or coughing onto produce/goods in shops) why can the general public understand this, are people really that stupid.



In city centres people are hopping between buses and or one building to another and in some cases they just can't be bothered to put them away and on again. That's fine from a habit point of view.


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## Edwardoka (2 Oct 2020)

I'm no statistician but it's not looking good. Hopefully they will put us into an extremely aggressive lockdown again.
The metaphorical horse I invoked six months ago which had previously escaped the Solar system is now on a trajectory to the black hole at the centre of the galaxy, and the stable door bolterers are nowhere in sight.


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## Julia9054 (2 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> In city centres people are hopping between buses and or one building to another and in some cases they just can't be bothered to put them away and on again. That's fine from a habit point of view.


That's me. Also if I try to take it off/put it on whilst walking it gets tangled up in my hair or pulls my glasses off. Less bother to just keep it on


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## AuroraSaab (2 Oct 2020)

I wish the big supermarkets would enforce it more rigidly. They have the manpower to remove agitators and can afford to ban people. If a big Tesco won't enforce it, how can one woman on her own in a Tesco Express? People would be more compliant generally if it was enforced without exception.


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## marinyork (2 Oct 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> I wish the big supermarkets would enforce it more rigidly. They have the manpower to remove agitators and can afford to ban people. If a big Tesco won't enforce it, how can one woman on her own in a Tesco Express? People would be more compliant generally if it was enforced without exception.



Path of least resistance.

Point about a small shop is theoretical. A small shop may have a better ratio of security guards to square feet/staff. It's less easy to disappear. All theoretical as the local issues/clientele varies massively in smaller shops and if you have a terrible manager/HR it might seem hell on earth to you.


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## marinyork (2 Oct 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> I'm no statistician but it's not looking good. Hopefully they will put us into an extremely aggressive lockdown again.
> The metaphorical horse I invoked six months ago which had previously escaped the Solar system is now on a trajectory to the black hole at the centre of the galaxy, and the stable door bolterers are nowhere in sight.



The left bit of that curve around 23rd March was probably 100,000 per day.

The ONS stuff today suggests that infection rates have gone down slightly, the most plausible explanation is local restrictions and the rule of 6 has slowed the spread of the virus slightly down from 9,600 per day to 8,400 per day. I think the 95% bounds were between 6000 cases per day and 15,000 per day. Next week's information will be interesting.

It's not good though as I'm still expecting a slow steady climb like in Spain/France until November or so.

edit: this is from the daily mail and from somewhere, I think ONS originally they don't say or some other module. Confusingly it says cases per day when the boxes are a week, but the rest is right. On this one it'd be even higher than said previously, maybe as high as 175,000 new cases per day some days.


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## oldwheels (2 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Path of least resistance.
> 
> Point about a small shop is theoretical. A small shop may have a better ratio of security guards to square feet/staff. It's less easy to disappear. All theoretical as the local issues/clientele varies massively in smaller shops and if you have a terrible manager/HR it might seem hell on earth to you.


In our small coop the rules are enforced and any aggro the police have been called. The disregard comes from tourists and if there is a queue which is mainly local there is plenty vocal encouragement for them to go forth and multiply.


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## marinyork (2 Oct 2020)

oldwheels said:


> In our small coop the rules are enforced and any aggro the police have been called. The disregard comes from tourists and if there is a queue which is mainly local there is plenty vocal encouragement for them to go forth and multiply.



I've done quite a bit of outdoor stuff and despite what most people write on here I think mask compliance is very good. Where the issue is at the moment the 'change' between moving through/ordering where you have to pop your mask on, which not everyone has got used to but getting there. I suspect it's probably the same with where people have to pop temporarily into badly ventillated/enclosed spaces and that will take a while for people to get used to.


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## marinyork (2 Oct 2020)

Amusingly enough one of the places where I've got outdoor teas has had permission from the council to put up a gigantic frigging open marquee.

If the weather forecast is decent the outdoor tables are packed. If the forecast is bad (never mind whether it actually rains or not), the numbers are down in single digits.

The marquee, people will work out eventually it's there and go forth and drink tea in grey weather. At some point anyway. It really is insanely big. I suspect councilery-pokery as the table setup are rather far away from each other.


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## tom73 (2 Oct 2020)

Take up around here is now much better the issue in shops is more down to staff not using them. Some seam to think sat behind the magic screen is fine even though the rest of the checkout is has nothing. Social distancing around customers tends to be very hit and miss. Guess it’s all down to what’s being said and enforced by head office and management on the ground. 
Be good if the messaging re valves in masks was better. Had to dodge a women wearing a mask that had 3 valves this morning.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (2 Oct 2020)

At the door of a Carrefour supermarket the other day, an old couple wearing masks were coming out as another old couple were going in without masks. The masked woman said something to them and pointed at her mask. The old guy without a mask said something back and, well... she may have been about 70 and unsteady on her feet but she fair flew at him. People were taken aback and watched as she tried to slap him as he covered his head with his arms. I don't know much Spanish but I'm guessing she was politely advising him to wear a mask.


----------



## mjr (2 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Be good if the messaging re valves in masks was better. Had to dodge a women wearing a mask that had 3 valves this morning.


A mask with 3 valves? An in valve, an out valve and a shake-it-all-about valve?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm still expecting a slow steady climb like in Spain/France until November or so.



Why are you expecting it to stop rising in November?


----------



## mjr (2 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> People were taken aback and watched as she tried to slap him as he covered his head with his arms. I don't know much Spanish but I'm guessing she was politely advising him to wear a mask.


I hope she sanitised her hands before and after!


----------



## marinyork (2 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Why are you expecting it to stop rising in November?



Deaths and infections may go very high, perhaps 20,000-50,000 cases per day and 200-400 deaths per day, then behaviour will change, more restrictions that just a third of the UK population and it'll level off and fall very slowly over 3-5 months. In the past various sources have said they think the peak will be in November again not that that helps that much as they are aware it may then last all winter. November includes to the end of November so could be 8 weeks away.


----------



## cambsno (2 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> I've already expressed my hatred of that argument earlier in this thread. Hearing that would tempt me to uncover my nose just to annoy the idiot on the PA.
> 
> Plus, sadly, some men do indeed hang their dangly bits out in public. There was a mayor of some town in the news this week convicted of something like that in a motorway service station toilet... although I think part of the problem was it wasn't all dangly.
> 
> ...



The could wear a visor - i assume they are ok as seen a few with no mask and a visor, although if they have severe asthma should they be going out as they will be super high risk?


----------



## IaninSheffield (2 Oct 2020)

New research about masks just released ...


----------



## Oldhippy (2 Oct 2020)

The virus is still young and to discover exactly how many ways it can transmit in such a short space of time is unlikely. It is also known to adapt already. Science is advising best case suggestions on what is known of other viruses. No one has all the answers if news feeds are to be believed. It seems churlish not to do the best you can to not get it with the means available. They may work, they may not, they may give better odds, they may not.


----------



## classic33 (2 Oct 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> New research about masks just released ...
> 
> View attachment 550382​


I'm at Vader level.


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## tom73 (2 Oct 2020)

Northumbria university, confirmed 770 students have tested positive. The big thing to note is only 78 of whom are symptomatic. The lesson here is mask up everyone.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-54394199


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> I'm at Vader level.



Vader did have a raspy voice though


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Deaths and infections may go very high, perhaps 20,000-50,000 cases per day and 200-400 deaths per day, then behaviour will change, more restrictions that just a third of the UK population and it'll level off and fall very slowly over 3-5 months. In the past various sources have said they think the peak will be in November again not that that helps that much as they are aware it may then last all winter. November includes to the end of November so could be 8 weeks away.



Thanks for the rationale. I agree with the general thrust, but I think the peak will probably be lower- Spain seems to have peaked already. 

My fear is that it simply continues at peak level for a very long time - we never get on top of it enough to really suppress it.

We will see.


----------



## midlife (2 Oct 2020)

Has I been mentioned about half term holiday in September, apologies if it has but there are rumours that it's going to be extended. Perhaps a prelude to some sort of "circuit beaker"?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Oct 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1312069995376111617


First he pays us to go to catch covid in restaurants, then he tells us to get back on public transport to go to our offices, followed by getting students back to universities without a plan. 

Resurgence - down to our lack of discipline.

Twât.


----------



## Oldhippy (2 Oct 2020)

Indeed he is.


----------



## mjr (2 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> I'm at Vader level.


But must you insist on the march playing the whole time you're in the shop?



midlife said:


> Has I been mentioned about half term holiday in September, apologies if it has but there are rumours that it's going to be extended. Perhaps a prelude to some sort of "circuit beaker"?


September's gone. Let it go. We can't turn back the clock and undo the government's mistakes.


----------



## midlife (2 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> But must you insist on the march playing the whole time you're in the shop?
> 
> 
> September's gone. Let it go. We can't turn back the clock and undo the government's mistakes.



Oops! October half term...


----------



## cambsno (2 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Oops! October half term...



But on the briefing the other day it was said that school kids testing positive is not increasing so why shut schools?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Oct 2020)

Trump now in hospital


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1312139721678569473


"Precautionary measure", "Tests", "mild" symptoms etc etc yadayadayada


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Oct 2020)

Trump is being taken to a military hospital .


----------



## tom73 (2 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Thanks for the rationale. I agree with the general thrust, but I think the peak will probably be lower- Spain seems to have peaked already.
> 
> My fear is that it simply continues at peak level for a very long time - we never get on top of it enough to really suppress it.
> 
> We will see.


That the worry we never got on top of it 1st time round. This time as soon as numbers start to drop the call for opening up is likely to even bigger. It’s now the in thing for MP to be open about questioning the need to keep anything. Fed by a ever growing public view of the same. Can’t see that changing unless things around messaging improve and deaths get to a figure that enough see as not acceptable or not worth the risk. If we do bottle it again which looks likely we are likely to be in this loop for some time. 
The other big pinch point will be vaccine time (when ever that maybe)
Hard truths need to be said now it won’t be a passport to normal for some time and some measures will have to stay for some time. I don’t think many fully understand the massive job needed to get the vaccine rolled out not just making but the rest it even giving it is a massive challenge. A recent report believes it will take 30,000 trained staff going it full time for around a year.


----------



## raleighnut (3 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Possibly just over-cautious, which is more related to personality or severity of underlying health conditions than stupidity. Or as @mjr said.
> 
> Unless it can be proved that wearing a mask outdoors is actually harmful in spreading the virus there is nothing for anyone to criticise.


Yep fair enough, I think it was a reaction on my part to our local Co-op where roughly 1/3rd of people aren't wearing masks which has been getting on my wick for a couple of weeks. I apologise to you and to all the other members who have criticised my post I shouldn't have moaned about them wearing masks outside.


----------



## raleighnut (3 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> No but what can expect when the basic message on ways of transmission are not being made clear in any government public health messaging. In wide open public spaces that allow for good social distancing it's not really required. But it makes perfect sense and should be encouraged in part enclosed public spacers which reduce good ventilation. Or in crowded public placers which make social distancing hard to achieve. Like my town centre for example also if you go from one shop to another it's a lot less bother just keep one on. As I do both I must be stupid or I have taken the time to read the evidence and asked a certain person who's qualified both in infection control and public health.





marinyork said:


> In city centres people are hopping between buses and or one building to another and in some cases they just can't be bothered to put them away and on again. That's fine from a habit point of view.


Like I've posted I'm sorry about this post of mine, it was posted in anger over the non-mask wearing idiots in the local shops


----------



## tom73 (3 Oct 2020)

@raleighnut


----------



## marinyork (3 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Like I've posted I'm sorry about this post of mine, it was posted in anger over the non-mask wearing idiots in the local shops



There is nothing to say sorry for.

Chuffing supermarkets. Once a week is enough for me.

Outside is not something people really agree on. Some see it as a broadly similar risk to inside (I do not). Others don't.


----------



## marinyork (3 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Thanks for the rationale. I agree with the general thrust, but I think the peak will probably be lower- Spain seems to have peaked already.
> 
> My fear is that it simply continues at peak level for a very long time - we never get on top of it enough to really suppress it.
> 
> We will see.



The peak could be very, very flat. That doesn't disagree with the lower bound of what I said and it being very flat. Sadly I don't think 20,000 cases is that unrealistic at all. I don't think we'll ever get on top of it until a few vaccines come along and even then it'll take 6 months to a year to dampen it a lot and even after vaccines there will probably be outbreaks.

The level of restrictions in other European countries is interesting as as reported on paper some seem less restrictive than here.


----------



## raleighnut (3 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> There is nothing to say sorry for.
> 
> Chuffing supermarkets. Once a week is enough for me.
> 
> Outside is not something people really agree on. Some see it as a broadly similar risk to inside (I do not). Others don't.


Yep, thanks, like I said it was just anger/frustration


tom73 said:


> @raleighnut



Thanks


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> The level of restrictions in other European countries is interesting as as reported on paper some seem less restrictive than here.



I guess both the level of compliance and the level of restrictions is important. Plus how effective test, track and trace is, of course.


----------



## tom73 (3 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I guess both the level of compliance and the level of restrictions is important. Plus how effective test, track and trace is, of course.


Without the latter you really are stuffed we look to be still working that one out at a national level at least.


----------



## mjr (3 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I guess both the level of compliance and the level of restrictions is important. Plus how effective test, track and trace is, of course.


Yes, TTT seems to be key. We're doing T in an odd-looking way but the TT seems to have been contracted out with no effective control.


----------



## midlife (3 Oct 2020)

cambsno said:


> But on the briefing the other day it was said that school kids testing positive is not increasing so why shut schools?



Yep, true, but wondering what Boris will do next. Something national not local. Just thinking. 

Two week half term coupled with two weeks of essential house leaving only.......Work, food, pharmacy otherwise stay at home for two week circuit breaker. And blaming it on us.


----------



## marinyork (3 Oct 2020)

12,872 new cases reported Saturday, with a sidenote about delays.


----------



## tom73 (3 Oct 2020)

Which ever stat you look at things are still going the wrong way. Our local hospital now has covid cases again 
Interesting that more women are testing positive than men. Are they more likely to go for a test or more likely to be at risk due to traditional gender roles ? Anyone seen any papers on it ?


----------



## marinyork (3 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Which ever stat you look at things are still going the wrong way. Our local hospital now has covid cases again
> Interesting that more women are testing positive than men. Are they more likely to go for a test or more likely to be at risk due to traditional gender roles ? Anyone seen any papers on it ?



There was a paper on auto-antibodies https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/23/science.abd4585 Bastard et al. Sep 2020

not read it.

A take from elsewhere

"The auto-antibody finding is especially exciting, said the consortium member and infectious diseases physician Vanessa Sancho-Shimizu of Imperial College London, because 95% of severe patients who carry the auto-antibodies are male and over 50. “It explains the age and gender bias that we’re seeing in the severe patient population,” she says."

On the takeup of tests, nope not seen anything. There's a lot buried in the more detailed ONS/PHE figures sometimes though.


----------



## DCLane (3 Oct 2020)

Where I live we've had restrictions since early August. Some of the areas nearby with similar restrictions have seen an increase in cases but nowhere near as much as elsewhere - those areas are now under restriction.

The university cities/towns are seeing cases increase from students congregating and mingling, but maybe those restrictions are having an effect?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (3 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> There was a paper on auto-antibodies https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/23/science.abd4585 Bastard et al. Sep 2020
> 
> not read it.
> 
> ...


The author's name isn't helping!


----------



## tom73 (3 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> There was a paper on auto-antibodies https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/23/science.abd4585 Bastard et al. Sep 2020
> 
> not read it.
> 
> ...



Will take a look 
Your right about ONS/PHE stuff it can at times take some time to work though. Some of the graphs are not that reader friendly either.


----------



## marinyork (4 Oct 2020)

Fearless, but with common sense.


----------



## fossyant (4 Oct 2020)

The PM was questioned on Friday by some local journalists - there were a few questions where he avoided, and having seen the report later on the BBC, the national report had these question's edited out ?

The main one - why isn't London being put on in further measures, when the North was, with numbers half of those in the South. The further measures haven't stopped the North rising, but Schools/Colleges/Uni and people at work caused this. His own constituancy was specifically mentioned. He just fluffed past the question.

One rule for us Northerners, and another for Boris and his mates.


----------



## tom73 (4 Oct 2020)

Mr Johnson said he believed over the "next few weeks and months" the "scientific equation will change whether that is vaccines or testing" and there will be "progress" in beating the virus. 
As a result, he said there was "hope" and "things can be significantly different by Christmas".
But, the prime minister warned there could be "a very tough winter for all of us", adding: "I tell you in all candour, it will continue to be bumpy through to Christmas and may even be bumpy beyond."

Equations don't change Boris that's unless you don't like the results and make one up. You've tried that before remember ? 
Bumpy ? well that's one way to look at it we've a good few massive pot holes to get past first.


----------



## tom73 (4 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> The PM was questioned on Friday by some local journalists - there were a few questions where he avoided, and having seen the report later on the BBC, the natinal report had these question's edited out ?
> 
> The main one - why isn't London being put on in further measures, when the North was, with numbers half of those in the South. The further measures haven't stopped the North rising, but Schools/Colleges/Uni and people at work caused this. His own constituancy was specifically mentioned. He just fluffed past the question.
> 
> One rule for us Northerners, and another for Boris and his mates.



At least if they think they covid they get a test and stay at home till the result comes back...... oh


----------



## fossyant (4 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Mr Johnson said he believed over the "next few weeks and months" the "scientific equation will change whether that is vaccines or testing" and there will be "progress" in beating the virus.
> As a result, he said there was "hope" and "things can be significantly different by Christmas".
> But, the prime minister warned there could be "a very tough winter for all of us", adding: "I tell you in all candour, it will continue to be bumpy through to Christmas and may even be bumpy beyond."
> 
> ...



It will be all OK for Christmas, but expect some very bumpy months to come... erm, Boris, Christmas isn't far away.


----------



## tom73 (4 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> It will be all OK for Christmas, but expect some very bumpy months to come... erm, Boris, Christmas isn't far away.


To be fair he's never said which year


----------



## matticus (4 Oct 2020)

The only interview I've seen with Boris (last night? On BBC main news?) he was quite clear that this could run well into 2021.

(of course he's also said he _hopes_ it will have calmed down by Christmas ... because only an idiot PM would take away all hope from his subjects... )


----------



## midlife (4 Oct 2020)

Have there been any figures released for England today, or have I missed it?


----------



## mjr (4 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Have there been any figures released for England today, or have I missed it?


"Last updated on Saturday 3 October 2020 at 8:38pm" https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Oh well. It's not like this is people's lives or anyth... Oh.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Fearless, but with common sense.



Scared witless with spider sense


----------



## marinyork (4 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Scared witless with spider sense



Probably helps with the social distancing though.


----------



## tom73 (4 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Have there been any figures released for England today, or have I missed it?


Don’t think you have but Boris did say the equation may change whether that is vaccines or testing. So maybe the latter already has leaving none to count.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Probably helps with the social distancing though.



Indeed as has been demonstrated its “fearless with no common sense” causing the spikes.


----------



## Rusty Nails (4 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Have there been any figures released for England today, or have I missed it?





mjr said:


> "Last updated on Saturday 3 October 2020 at 8:38pm" https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
> 
> Oh well. It's not like this is people's lives or anyth... Oh.



Daily figures, especially at weekends with the reporting issues, while of interest, do not mean as much as weekly trends.

I must admit to almost ignoring the daily national figures, as there is a great variability between the regions, and take more notice of the trends and graph directions.

It is people's lives but slight delays in publishing some daily figures has little or no impact on the numbers of cases or lives lost.


----------



## mjr (4 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> The main one - why isn't London being put on in further measures, when the North was, with numbers half of those in the South.[...] He just fluffed past the question.


If that was the question, then it's a scandal that he fluffed it. It's bleeding obvious from the new cases map why the north is lockding down again and London isn't yet:


----------



## fossyant (4 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> If that was the question, then it's a scandal that he fluffed it. It's bleeding obvious from the new cases map why the north is lockding down again and London isn't yet:
> View attachment 550716



We're not talking now. Many northern areas went into lockdown in August, where our infection rate was half what London is now. It's gone crazy high now up here though.


----------



## tom73 (4 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Daily figures, especially at weekends with the reporting issues, while of interest, do not mean as much as weekly trends.
> 
> I must admit to almost ignoring the daily national figures, as there is a great variability between the regions, and take more notice of the trends and graph directions.
> 
> It is people's lives but slight delays in publishing some daily figures has little or no impact on the numbers of cases or lives lost.



It has when the delayed reported cases don’t get passed on to track and trace. Which now has been confirmed are around 16,000.


----------



## Rusty Nails (4 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> It has when the delayed reported cases don’t get passed on to track and trace. Which now has been revived are around 16,000.



I agree that was a terrible error if unreported cases didn't get passed on.

Another reason that too much importance is placed on _daily_ national totals.


----------



## midlife (4 Oct 2020)

The rolling mean comprise a number of daily totals so it's not unimportant. I was just curious as today's figures seem to be missing


----------



## classic33 (4 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> If that was the question, then it's a scandal that he fluffed it. It's bleeding obvious from the new cases map why the north is lockding down again and London isn't yet:
> View attachment 550716


_"The total number of COVID-19 cases identified in London is 50,272 as at 30 September 2020
This compares to a figure of 383,553 cases for England as a whole

In the most recent week of complete data, 19 September 2020 - 25 September 2020, 3,246 cases were identified in London. This compares with 1,912 for the previous week."_

https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases

London appears to have shrunk on that infograph.


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## cookiemonster (5 Oct 2020)

https://www.thenational.scot/news/1...oked-with-pride-like-olympics-tory-peer-says/




View: https://media.giphy.com/media/TfdqCRLQ7iEgUXh1cf/giphy.gif


----------



## Tanis8472 (5 Oct 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> https://www.thenational.scot/news/1...oked-with-pride-like-olympics-tory-peer-says/
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Ffs


----------



## mjr (5 Oct 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> https://www.thenational.scot/news/1...oked-with-pride-like-olympics-tory-peer-says/
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I particularly like: "He added: "I think that the return to schools did catch us on the hop""

Yes, that was so unexpected, wasn't it? Who here knew that schools went back in September? Shouldn't blame Johnson's government for messing that up.


----------



## cookiemonster (5 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> I particularly like: "He added: "I think that the return to schools did catch us on the hop""
> 
> Yes, that was so unexpected, wasn't it? Who here knew that schools went back in September? Shouldn't blame Johnson's government for messing that up.




View: https://media.giphy.com/media/mBjulVQHWumozyk6O2/giphy.gif


----------



## tom73 (5 Oct 2020)

Hancock in a video interview for party conference.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-downloads-for-covid-19-app-says-matt-hancock
In his interview with Ali, Hancock said he wanted to see a greater sense of shared responsibility between individuals and the NHS for preventing people falling ill.
“I think for too long the NHS has [been] picking up the pieces when things go wrong and instead we need more of a sense of shared responsibility – individual people, everybody, responsible for their own health as well as the NHS taking responsibility to keep people healthy in the first place,” he said.

Shared responsibility ok that’s true in part but what about the government much of ill health is down to lack of social policy and poverty. The NHS and individuals can’t fix that they can’t fix lack of funding either.
Be nice if you showed a bit of shared responsibility all round. 

He also said the app “gone off the shelf like digital hotcakes” downloads don‘t show how many are really using it. As no data is collected on why people ask for a test or believe they need one. Or why they feel they need to self isolate. You will never know if it‘s a success or not.


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## tom73 (5 Oct 2020)

Not seen this talked about much 
The head of Uk vaccine task force has told the FT that less than half of the UK population could be vaccinated against coronavirus.
“There is going to be no vaccination of people under 18," she said. "It's an adult-only vaccine for people over 50, focusing on health workers, care home workers and the vulnerable."

Turns out Kate Bingham is biotech venture capitalist. Is anyone heading up any of the counties response to COVID an expert in public health, science, or medicine ?


----------



## raleighnut (5 Oct 2020)

What farkin planet are these daffodils from.


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## Rusty Nails (5 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Not seen this talked about much
> The head of Uk vaccine task force has told the FT that less than half of the UK population could be vaccinated against coronavirus.
> “There is going to be no vaccination of people under 18," she said. "It's an adult-only vaccine for people over 50, focusing on health workers, care home workers and the vulnerable."
> 
> Turns out Kate Bingham is biotech venture capitalist. Is anyone heading up any of the counties response to COVID an expert in public health, science, or medicine ?



She has a strong background in managing biotechnology research, development and delivery. Yes, that is in private industry but she will not be actually developing the drugs.....there are experts for that. Her responsibility will be involvement in the development and delivery programme, under the control and management of the government.

n


----------



## davidphilips (5 Oct 2020)

Found this interesting apologies if its already been posted.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resource...CnIAWsNIlRqCyTDCBvsJuEQtrH7w0qjN-L4VFiZmA7miY


----------



## marinyork (5 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Not seen this talked about much
> The head of Uk vaccine task force has told the FT that less than half of the UK population could be vaccinated against coronavirus.
> “There is going to be no vaccination of people under 18," she said. "It's an adult-only vaccine for people over 50, focusing on health workers, care home workers and the vulnerable."
> 
> Turns out Kate Bingham is biotech venture capitalist. Is anyone heading up any of the counties response to COVID an expert in public health, science, or medicine ?



It's been mentioned a number of times by Kate Bingham, the government and their advisors about the not the whole population. This is also blindingly obvious from statements the government has made about securing vaccines.

This comment is more worrying as it suggests the government have made their mind up and the evidence on how effective vaccines (plural) are is very much unsettled (the government may have some info about how particular ones seem to be doing).

Short of further research about the immune system and interferons and particular antibodies/auto-antibodies as mentioned recently with a mass test, it is going to be difficult to decide who has it, but there is a lot of data for the government to make an informed choice.

When the time comes the government will have to be open and honest about who gets the vaccine and why and it's drawbacks.

E.g. completely made up numbers. But for some of the vaccines the profile may be something like
over 85s protects 30% of patients
65-84 protects 50% of patients
50-64 protects 65% of patients
40-49 protects 85% of patients
18-39 protects 90% of patients, another 9% register no symptoms and are less infectious

and then it'll depend on treatments available at the time and what vaccines are available at what time. It's not infeasible that one of the first available vaccines is terrible at protecting older patients but fantastic in younger patients. What do you do then?

Rather stupidly it may have to be rowed back upon as with around 20 million more than just those very at risk it may be decided say it's a good idea vaccinating first year university students or people that live in very high density housing.


----------



## marinyork (5 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> She has a strong background in managing biotechnology research, development and delivery. Yes, that is in private industry but she will not be actually developing the drugs.....there are experts for that. Her responsibility will be involvement in the development and delivery programme, under the control and management of the government.



It's the delivery bit I'm worried about. 

It's no mean task actually getting it in the arms of millions of people. A task that is non-optimally performed every year with the flu vaccine.


----------



## Edwardoka (5 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's the delivery bit I'm worried about.
> 
> It's no mean task actually getting it in the arms of millions of people. A task that is non-optimally performed every year with the flu vaccine.


Wendover made a very good video about the logistics chain:


----------



## cookiemonster (5 Oct 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...wn-how-many-contacts-not-traced-says-minister

How the hell can 16,000 cases go 'missing?' 

16 or even 116 I can understand but the population of a small town? 

And no-one has an answer as to how this happened.


----------



## tom73 (5 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> She has a strong background in managing biotechnology research, development and delivery. Yes, that is in private industry but she will not be actually developing the drugs.....there are experts for that. Her responsibility will be involvement in the development and delivery programme, under the control and management of the government.
> 
> n



We already have experienced NHS staff who know how to set up and deliver a vaccination program. 
They've been running them for years equally we have plenty of qualified world leading professionals who can lead this. 
But just hand it over to someone from the private sector best all round after all they have a great track recored.
Delivering high class and value for money public service.


----------



## midlife (5 Oct 2020)

The error was due to some Data file sizes being too big and rejected


----------



## classic33 (5 Oct 2020)

Turkeys being placed on diets, and face the chop earlier, under the "Rule of six"

https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/04/turk...ize-birds-for-rule-of-six-christmas-13369403/


----------



## roubaixtuesday (5 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> The error was due to some Data file sizes being too big and rejected



World beating.


----------



## Rusty Nails (5 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> We already have experienced NHS staff who know how to set up and deliver a vaccination program.
> They've been running them for years equally we have plenty of qualified world leading professionals who can lead this.
> But just hand it over to someone from the private sector best all round after all they have a great track recored.
> Delivering high class and value for money public service.



I don't care whether it is managed by someone with a private or public/NHS background, as long as it is implemented and delivered effectively and state funds are not ripped off.

Medicine relies on a mix of private and public bodies for the discovery/development and manufacture of new drugs.

The public services, including the NHS, are bureacracies that are not exactly known for the timely development and introduction of major new systems. Yes, the NHS coped well with the initial phases of the virus, but at what cost in human lives in other parts of its diagnostic and treatment services. It is by no means perfect.


----------



## tom73 (5 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's been mentioned a number of times by Kate Bingham, the government and their advisors about the not the whole population. This is also blindingly obvious from statements the government has made about securing vaccines.
> 
> This comment is more worrying as it suggests the government have made their mind up and the evidence on how effective vaccines (plural) are is very much unsettled (the government may have some info about how particular ones seem to be doing).
> 
> ...



You're right it has just not in the mass media you get to point of shutting down at times when government and their advisors get going. 
I don't see much either being talked about just what issues will come when a vaccine has come along. Or who get's what and when some unpopular clinically lead choices will have to be made. Just talking up how good trials are going is not going to help anyone. A open public debate needs to start now. Some may well not work from the start or months down the line it's not going to be a perfect golden egg.
Going what's popular won't help at some point equal weight will have to go to once at risk and ones who pose the biggest risk to other. 
Social need will have to come into play at some point which won't sit nicely with some. 

Get the stuff into arm will be massive task and will not happen quickly. Again government is not being open about it and admitting it's not going to be easy or quick to get. Just the admin will take a massive effort under normal conditions. 
As for the jabs Mrs 73 can do about 50 jabs an hour normally. With all the covid conditions even setting up a queue is not easy then add in the PPE That 50 rate soon drops she thinks to about less than 1/2 if she's lucky. That's assuming everyone is able to get have it and leave and no-one need's to have a few minutes to rest up.


----------



## tom73 (5 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I don't care whether it is managed by someone with a private or public/NHS background, as long as it is implemented and delivered effectively and state funds are not ripped off.
> 
> Medicine relies on a mix of private and public bodies for the discovery/development and manufacture of new drugs.
> 
> The public services, including the NHS, are bureacracies that are not exactly known for the timely development and introduction of major new systems. Yes, the NHS coped well with the initial phases of the virus, but at what cost in human lives in other parts of its diagnostic and treatment services. It is by no means perfect.


That was not down to bureacracies that's down to capacity and staffing which can't be magically made but comes from good funding and investment. Which we have for too long not been willing to do. 
Do you know how much of a rip off drug companies are and how much they've cream off the NHS ?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (5 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> the government may have some info about how particular ones seem to be doing



Unlikely there's any inside info as the key trials are blinded.


----------



## Rusty Nails (5 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> That was not down to bureacracies that's down to capacity and staffing which can't be magically made but comes from good funding and investment. Which we have for too long not been willing to do.
> Do you know how much of a rip off drug companies are and how much they've cream off the NHS ?



The fact that things like cancer and other serious treatments suffered was not just down to staffing levels, but also about organisational decisions and priorities set by top managers and the government. Lots of people with non Covid related illnesses are still suffering from those decisions some 5/6 months after the initial rush.

Yes, the profits of big drug companies are too high.


----------



## mjr (5 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> The error was due to some Data file sizes being too big and rejected


Where "data file sizes being too big" means "Excel spreadsheet reached maximum number of columns", if the Twitter rumours are to be believed. So far, the primary source seems to be the Daily Mail, so I'm not confident to call them that stupid yet. It's pretty stupid not to have any upload verification and error handling on something as important as this, though.

If this is true, it's not only world-beating, but also self-defeating:

View: https://twitter.com/standupmaths/status/1313055411285774336


----------



## fossyant (5 Oct 2020)

Knowing the NHS they are probably on an old version of Excel.


----------



## mjr (5 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> Knowing the NHS they are probably on an old version of Excel.


Not that old, apparently, because the pre-2003 Excel had a lower limit


----------



## fossyant (5 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Not that old, apparently, because the pre-2003 Excel had a lower limit



Wow, was it that long ago (shows my age). I had to split one of my spreadsheets because of the limit !


----------



## Rezillo (5 Oct 2020)

This is beyond incompetent. It's not even a database. Who on earth set that up?

[edit] Difficult to work out who's at fault here. It seems to be PHE's spreadsheet but they would have been working to a data submission format specified by Baroness Useless's Test and Trace. I know which organisation I would place my money on.


----------



## tom73 (5 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The fact that things like cancer and other serious treatments suffered was not just down to staffing levels, but also about organisational decisions and priorities set by top managers and the government. Lots of people with non Covid related illnesses are still suffering from those decisions some 5/6 months after the initial rush.
> 
> Yes, the profits of big drug companies are too high.


If the government had got on top this thing when it had a chance hospitals now would not still have be running services. At much reduced capacity due to trying to provide normal day to day services in ways. That allow them to work safely due to a very much active covid wider environment. Some services become too clinically a risk to be able to run at the height of all this. At the time much less was known about covid and the risk to some may well have been over played. But at the time they had to work with what they had. Testing was also now way near good enough to have allow services to run. Even now that's still not fixed mass testing of staff though it was promised months ago is yet to happen. The fact that large about of the health service continued to run is no mean feat given the mess they had to work with.


----------



## mjr (5 Oct 2020)

Rezillo said:


> This is beyond incompetent. It's not even a database. Who on earth set that up?


Maybe once the C-suite (Dido ain't cheap), the admin team, the sales department and order processing had all taken their cuts, there was only enough money left in the Track and Trace contract for an intern to develop it unsupervised.

I'm also seeing comments that the Excel data gets sent to an Access database, but the Access database was on a filesystem with a 2Gb file size limit and there was no verification/integrity testing... but as ever on social media, you don't know who knows what officially, who knows and is leaking and who is making shoot up.


----------



## tom73 (5 Oct 2020)

Rezillo said:


> This is beyond incompetent. It's not even a database. Who on earth set that up?
> 
> [edit] Difficult to work out who's at fault here. It seems to be PHE's spreadsheet but they would have been working to a data submission format specified by Baroness Useless's Test and Trace. I know which organisation I would place my money on.



Serco and the other failed French IT provider (forget the name) ? Still don't think it even links to system one yet.

Anyone know if the lost data is pillar one or two ? 
Pillar one the only real NHS bit appears to working fine.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Oct 2020)

Cases dropping here but the surrounding areas are jumping up. Time to erect some walls 😀


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Oct 2020)

Rezillo said:


> This is beyond incompetent. It's not even a database. Who on earth set that up?
> 
> [edit] Difficult to work out who's at fault here. It seems to be PHE's spreadsheet but they would have been working to a data submission format specified by Baroness Useless's Test and Trace. I know which organisation I would place my money on.



A spreadsheet for transferring the central Covid 19 data? Tell me you are joking. What is this, amateur hour? Word beating my arse.


----------



## Edwardoka (5 Oct 2020)

It's not Excel's fault that they used it for track and trace. It's the government's fault.
Excel is an excellent tool in the right hands, unfortunately in this case the hands using it belonged to tools.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> Knowing the NHS they are probably on an old version of Excel.



Lotus 123 more like


----------



## stowie (5 Oct 2020)

This report from the Grunaid is quite illuminating - if correct of course.

Reports for a lab would be sent in a csv format (which is an unlimited basic text format to represent the data)
This gets imported to Excel which has a row limit - so if the csv file overruns it simply ignores the remaining data
Lab sends through CSV with all tests run (not just the latest)
Someone uses excel to manipulate this data in order to plug it into the main COVID database.

As soon as the limit on excel was reached for row numbers then the new tests at the end of the CSV got lost.


----------



## Rusty Nails (5 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> If the government had got on top this thing when it had a chance hospitals now would not still have be running services. At much reduced capacity due to trying to provide normal day to day services in ways. That allow them to work safely due to a very much active covid wider environment. Some services become too clinically a risk to be able to run at the height of all this. At the time much less was known about covid and the risk to some may well have been over played. But at the time they had to work with what they had. Testing was also now way near good enough to have allow services to run. Even now that's still not fixed mass testing of staff though it was promised months ago is yet to happen. The fact that large about of the health service continued to run is no mean feat given the mess they had to work with.



I agree that a significant number of the transmission and subsequent mortality statistics were caused by our government's piss-poor response, initially and subsequently.

I just believe that the NHS (excluding the front-line medical staff) is a huge bureaucracy that is not as marvellous as we like to make out.

Did our NHS deal with the virus in a more effective way than other European countries such as Germany, France, Sweden etc.? 

The NHS has always been a political football, with little organisational stability, and that has contributed to, rather than resolved, its many problems.


----------



## DaveReading (5 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> This report from the Grunaid is quite illuminating - if correct of course.
> 
> Reports for a lab would be sent in a csv format (which is an unlimited basic text format to represent the data)
> This gets imported to Excel which has a row limit - so if the csv file overruns it simply ignores the remaining data
> ...



Suggestions elsewhere that it was the column limit that was reached, as the genius who designed the spreadsheet thought it would be a good idea to have a column for each case, rather than a row.

Hard to believe, if that's true.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (5 Oct 2020)

North of 12000 cases today, and apparently not inflated by the Excel fark up.

That's really bad, looks like doubling every 10 days or so still. I think the estimate for the peak of the first wave was 100,000 per day, which translated to 1000 deaths per day. We'll be back there by the end of the month at this rate (three doublings).

[Please, someone tell me I've got this wrong because this seems awfully grim news to me]


----------



## roubaixtuesday (5 Oct 2020)




----------



## Ming the Merciless (5 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> View attachment 550838



Press return to auto fill the data and import the pandemic data twice if you’d like the number of daily cases to double...


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## tom73 (5 Oct 2020)

Investigation being set up to find out why it’s looking like the government only want one. As they are already looking at pinning the blame yet again on PHE. Funny how this cock up is getting investigated we have plenty of others to pick from. Compared to Australia and New Zealand they’ve had 4 in total already 
but then they’ve only had that many cocks up.


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## Wobblers (5 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Where "data file sizes being too big" means "Excel spreadsheet reached maximum number of columns", if the Twitter rumours are to be believed. So far, the primary source seems to be the Daily Mail, so I'm not confident to call them that stupid yet. It's pretty stupid not to have any upload verification and error handling on something as important as this, though.
> 
> If this is true, it's not only world-beating, but also self-defeating:
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/standupmaths/status/1313055411285774336




I can well believe Excel being behind this. After all, it's used everywhere, being the business tool of choice, public and private sector alike. Even when it's not the appropriate tool, it's still the office equivalent of a hammer. Every organisation you care to name will have an immense number of processes shoved into umpteen Excel spreadsheets (though you no doubt are all too aware of this!).

Still, it could have been worse: they could have decided to spend eleventy squillion on some SAP implementation running on Oracle using an unsecured S3 bucket....


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## Rezillo (5 Oct 2020)

Keep an eye on this. El Reg is usually the first place for those involved in this kind of incident to leak to.

https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/05/test_and_trace/


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## Ming the Merciless (5 Oct 2020)

McWobble said:


> I can well believe Excel being behind this. After all, it's used everywhere, being the business tool of choice, public and private sector alike. Even when it's not the appropriate tool, it's still the office equivalent of a hammer. Every organisation you care to name will have an immense number of processes shoved into umpteen Excel spreadsheets (though you no doubt are all too aware of this!).
> 
> Still, it could have been worse: they could have decided to spend eleventy squillion on some SAP implementation running on Oracle using an unsecured S3 bucket....



They probably have the spreadsheet in an unsecured S3 bucket for “efficiently” sharing the data with.....everyone.


----------



## Wobblers (5 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> She has a strong background in managing biotechnology research, development and delivery. Yes, that is in private industry but she will not be actually developing the drugs.....there are experts for that. Her responsibility will be involvement in the development and delivery programme, under the control and management of the government.
> 
> n



None of which indicate that she's the appropriate choice to organise a very large vaccination programme. What she's saying already worry me. Smallpox wasn't eradicated by vaccinating everyone - there just wasn't enough of the vaccine for that. It was done by "barrier vaccination": vaccinating those who had been in contact with infected people. It worked. 

We will likely end up in the same place with regards to CV19: there won't be enough vaccine to go around, at least initially. CV19 can be a serious illness, even in those under 50. Consider that it's now thought that 10-20% will suffer "long Covid" and experience months of debilitating fatigue. This includes those who are the most economically active - the economic consequences alone are likely to be significant. I would think that barrier vaccination would be a more successful strategy than limiting it to the most vulnerable - not least because it will probably still take many months to vaccinate even that group. (Of course, this assumes that any vaccine builds up resistance quickly.) 

Put simply, I'd be happier to see an actual expert in the field to be in charge of the vaccination programme.


----------



## stowie (5 Oct 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Suggestions elsewhere that it was the column limit that was reached, as the genius who designed the spreadsheet thought it would be a good idea to have a column for each case, rather than a row.
> 
> Hard to believe, if that's true.



That is just weird. Why would you do that?!


----------



## RoadRider400 (5 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Have there been any figures released for England today, or have I missed it?


The tombola machine has broken unfortunately.


----------



## MarkF (5 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> North of 12000 cases today, and apparently not inflated by the Excel fark up.
> 
> That's really bad, looks like doubling every 10 days or so still. I think the estimate for the peak of the first wave was 100,000 per day, which translated to 1000 deaths per day. We'll be back there by the end of the month at this rate (three doublings).
> 
> [Please, someone tell me I've got this wrong because this seems awfully grim news to me]



And beyond an expected seasonal rise (like flu) how do these "cases" correlate to hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths? 

The PCR test inventor (Kary Mullis) said it was not to be used for medical diagnosis, only research as it was so unreliable. The false positives in China in March were 80%. Our government is using a deeply flawed system from which to produce spurious "cases" and then using those figures to determine policy/strategy to protect us from a pandemic that may have been over months ago. A huge % of these new and "missed" cases will be kids, college and uni kids, I'll stick my neck out and say not 1 will die and I'd be surprised if 1was hospitalised, yet they'll prove happy hunting grounds for "case" seekers. It's not logical, an example being the 3 UK students in Italy, stuck in quarantine for 2 months and with no end in sight because they keep testing positive, for 2 months!!! Or Spains sudden drop in "cases" when they lowered the PCR cycle threshhold and double tested. Cases fall, restrictions are working, cases rise, need more restrictions (= more cases), as one journalist said last week "It's like ducking witches".............

Be interesting to see what the government comes up with on Friday when it has to produce evidence on which it's restrictions were based, now that the crowd funded legal injunction must be heard next week.

Great Barrington Declaration.


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## roubaixtuesday (5 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> how do these "cases" correlate to hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths?



Deaths are following behind as would be expected, also doubling every ten days or so. 






That will take us into the hundreds every day by the end of the month.


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## tom73 (5 Oct 2020)

Other than political baggage Scotland's app is basically the same as ours. Look's to have the same issues with the blue tooth too. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54418278


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## icowden (5 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> That is just weird. Why would you do that?!



To me that sounds unlikely.
The more plausible issue is the row limit. As to "why excel" well...

NHS Labs use lab software to process the results of screening tests. In order to send those results back to the organisation that requested the screening, there are 2 main methods:-

1) HL7 / FIHR clinical messaging
2) A CSV file

The first option is obviously the best but you need to have quite a few things in place. Firstly you need to be a registered organisation and have an endpoint into the N3 network. This is a private Network used by the NHS to ensure that your health records remain confidential. It's not quick or easy to set up. Then you need to have software that can receive the HL7 / FIHR messaging and convert that back into relational data, which you can then use for analysis. Then you need a contractual agreement and data sharing agreement with the labs that are going to send the results to you.

The second option is what tends to get used when it has been determined that option one is too difficult / costly / time consuming / not yet available. So Serco Test and Trace is almost certainly receiving CSV files.

From what the Grauniad has reported it seems likely that instead of importing the received CSV into a suitable database system, results seem to have been copied and pasted into a master Excel doc, and then reports have been driven off that. So when the Excel doc ran out of rows, data was lost.


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## mjr (6 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> The PCR test inventor (Kary Mullis) said it was not to be used for medical diagnosis, only research as it was so unreliable. [...]


Stop spreading fakebook fakes, please! This one has been factchecked and is easy to find:
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN24420X

Your shocking conclusions cannot logically follow from this because it is false.


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## fossyant (6 Oct 2020)

Local news did a little digging into the super high infection rates for Manchester. Close to 500 per 100,000. Student population is more like 3,000 per 100,000 - yes we expected that. It is still only 3%


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## oldwheels (6 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Other than political baggage Scotland's app is basically the same as ours. Look's to have the same issues with the blue tooth too.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54418278


So out of million people BBC Scotland manage to find one problem with someone who will probably turn out to be a political activist. They have form.


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## Ming the Merciless (6 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> That is just weird. Why would you do that?!



Because they couldn’t find any real IT people .


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## tom73 (6 Oct 2020)

oldwheels said:


> So out of million people BBC Scotland manage to find one problem with someone who will probably turn out to be a political activist. They have form.


I have know idea all I was pointing out is which ever app you use that is not centralised. They all run off the Apple/Google close contact program and are basically the same. So they will all have issues around false positives.


----------



## stowie (6 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> I have know idea all I was pointing out is which ever app you use that is not centralised. They all run off the Apple/Google close contact program and are basically the same. So they will all have issues around false positives.



The Google / Apple common API has a couple of ways to access data - from my limited understanding of the Google API documentation. The app developer can either receive a precalculated risk score which uses the Google / Apple code to manage via whatever algorithms they have implemented (not sure what these are, the documentation is very coy about it!). Or the app developer can take the "raw data" and manage the exposure calculation within their app. This allows the developer to implement their own methodology to best capture true positives etc.

This means apps based on the GAEN API may have exactly the same exposure calculations, or they may not depending upon implementation. Even if they use the precalculated risk score they still have various things they could do with this data that would make the apps function differently - for example they could set thresholds differently or weight the exposures in different ways even after the common API has had its go with it.

The fundamental problem is this :



> Attenuation is a very noisy proxy of distance. A very low attenuation will indicate a very high probability of a short distance, but a low attenuation can be caused by many phenomena and is not always indicative of a long distance. When setting attenuationDurations' thresholds or risk score multipliers, it's necessary to make a tradeoff between precision and recall.



This aren't my words, but cut and paste from the Google API documentation itself.

What this means is that if two people are standing face-face with their phones in front of them, the attenuation will be very low and the app can calculate with good certainty that they are in close proximity. However, if both people are still standing face-face but their phones are in their back pockets the attenuation may be very different (humans absorb the 2.5Ghz frequency BT operates on rather well). In this case the higher attenuation may mean they are in close proximity with an attenuating environment or they could be far away in an environment which isn't as attenuating. And this is a really, really simple case. Common environments are much more complex as studies have shown.

So the app developers and Google/Apple have a difficult task to get measurements which minimise false results. 

This doesn't mean the app is useless - far from it. But it is one of a number of tools that have to be employed to effectively isolate COVID cases and minimise spread. It isn't a panacea.


----------



## marinyork (6 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> The Google / Apple common API has a couple of ways to access data - from my limited understanding of the Google API documentation. The app developer can either receive a precalculated risk score which uses the Google / Apple code to manage via whatever algorithms they have implemented (not sure what these are, the documentation is very coy about it!). Or the app developer can take the "raw data" and manage the exposure calculation within their app. This allows the developer to implement their own methodology to best capture true positives etc.
> 
> This means apps based on the GAEN API may have exactly the same exposure calculations, or they may not depending upon implementation. Even if they use the precalculated risk score they still have various things they could do with this data that would make the apps function differently - for example they could set thresholds differently or weight the exposures in different ways even after the common API has had its go with it.



I see you are still knocking around.

The issue here is entirely the family of functions of calculations they could employ. You do have form for continuously writing trivial things and then arguing with others who you obtusely wish to misunderstand.

The last paragraph you have written is correct.

There are papers that go through the 'not sure' algorithms if you were interested.


----------



## stowie (6 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> I see you are still knocking around.
> 
> The issue here is entirely the family of functions of calculations they could employ. You do have form for continuously writing trivial things and then arguing with others who you obtusely wish to misunderstand.
> 
> ...



I have repeatedly asked you for details on the papers because _I am interested_. Still waiting.


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## tom73 (6 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> The Google / Apple common API has a couple of ways to access data - from my limited understanding of the Google API documentation. The app developer can either receive a precalculated risk score which uses the Google / Apple code to manage via whatever algorithms they have implemented (not sure what these are, the documentation is very coy about it!). Or the app developer can take the "raw data" and manage the exposure calculation within their app. This allows the developer to implement their own methodology to best capture true positives etc.
> 
> This means apps based on the GAEN API may have exactly the same exposure calculations, or they may not depending upon implementation. Even if they use the precalculated risk score they still have various things they could do with this data that would make the apps function differently - for example they could set thresholds differently or weight the exposures in different ways even after the common API has had its go with it.
> 
> ...



I never thought it was though it has some merit it's not without it's issues. As for being part of any effective response it's not and is mostly window dressing. To take away from the real issue that testing is a total mess and the only real way to do contact tracing is on a local level. 
By people who know what they are doing and know what the word is street. They know what to they've done it for years and it works. 
Which is more than can be said for Dido's costly horror show. The App It's yet another example of "machine that go's ping" health care.


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## fossyant (6 Oct 2020)

Both main Manchester Universities are now online teaching from tomorrow, unless some lessons have to be practicals.


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## DCLane (6 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> Both main Manchester Universities are now online teaching from tomorrow, unless some lessons have to be practicals.



That's exactly what I'm doing until Christmas. They're coming in for 2 hours a fortnight only. My module's completely online although we're delivering more than normal having added 50% more to the delivery time.


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## Ming the Merciless (6 Oct 2020)

It just gets better and better, their phone lines crash.

https://apple.news/A08AD5mtnTbuu_zD81ENdEw


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## roubaixtuesday (6 Oct 2020)

Just in case you thought it was a blip, yet another record, doubling time looks consistent with ~10 days, rapidly catching up with European neighbours.

Hospitalizations, deaths on same exponential growth trajectory.

Is this reminding people of anything?


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## tom73 (6 Oct 2020)

@roubaixtuesday we really have learned nothing.
In the mean time in New Zealand Auckland having got back in control of local outbreak. Yesterday after recording day 9 case free are now again fully open and life is normal.


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## Oldhippy (6 Oct 2020)

Profit before life sadly, and ignorant people who really don't seem to think it will be them but expect all the care going if they end up in hospital.


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## marinyork (6 Oct 2020)

Contact tracer I know made 40+ calls today. Previous months it was 1 call a month and in recent days 5-20 calls a day.


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## tom73 (6 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Contact tracer I know made 40+ calls today. Previous months it was 1 call a month and in recent days 5-20 calls a day.


All 1st contact or following up on no pick up ? Or more of a mix ?


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## marinyork (6 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> All 1st contact or following up on no pick up ? Or more of a mix ?



Tier 3. She/he makes the calls telling people to self isolate, as does everyone on her/his team.

Interestingly enough the team made a number of calls last week telling people to self isolate after 14 days had expired.


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## marinyork (6 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> All 1st contact or following up on no pick up ? Or more of a mix ?



All first contact. The no pick ups didn't say, although last week it sounded like it was about 80% no pick ups.

Of those they got through to, students and many people whose first language is not English.


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## tom73 (6 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Tier 3. She/he makes the calls telling people to self isolate, as does everyone on her/his team.
> 
> Interestingly enough the team made a number of calls last week telling people to self isolate after 14 days had expired.



Right with you , I've heard about contacting after it had pasted before. It was also talked about in the last panorama about T&T.


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## tom73 (6 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> All first contact. The no pick ups didn't say, although last week it sounded like it was about 80% no pick ups.
> 
> Of those they got through to, students and many people whose first language is not English.


Do they have access to language line or which ever the government is signed up to?


----------



## marinyork (6 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Right with you , I've heard about contacting after it had pasted before. It was also talked about in the last panorama about T&T.



Yep I think language line. Still some of the calls quite lengthy in that respect.


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## tom73 (6 Oct 2020)

CDC finally accept airborne transmission now we just need WHO to accept it. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54435240

In other news parliament is adding extra covid measures yes to plastic screens. No to compulsory face covering they will be "strongly advised" to wear face coverings when moving around. But not in the chamber right what science is that following then?


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## classic33 (6 Oct 2020)

Just need to increase the distance now.
_"Pathogen-bearing droplets can be suspended in the air for not just seconds, but minutes, and can travel up to 27 feet."_

https://www.nationalgeographic.co.u...eze-can-launch-germs-much-farther-than-6-feet


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## mjr (6 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Just need to increase the distance now.
> _"Pathogen-bearing droplets can be suspended in the air for not just seconds, but minutes, and can travel up to 27 feet."_
> 
> https://www.nationalgeographic.co.u...eze-can-launch-germs-much-farther-than-6-feet


Fluid dynamics from back in April, "pathogens" not coronavirus - not news.


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## classic33 (6 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Fluid dynamics from back in April, "pathogens" not coronavirus - not news.


Your view only.
Pathogens are of different kinds such as *viruses*, bacteria, fungus, and parasites.


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## tom73 (6 Oct 2020)

Oh Hancock throws his dummy out the pram. 

View: https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1312117010843660289?s=21


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## mjr (6 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Your view only.
> Pathogens are of different kinds such as *viruses*, bacteria, fungus, and parasites.


No, basic language comprehension, not a view. Saying some pathogens - or even viruses - may travel 27ft does not mean coronavirus does or even that it can.

When will the second wave of scaremongering peak?


----------



## classic33 (6 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> No, basic language comprehension, not a view. Saying some pathogens - or even viruses - may travel 27ft does not mean coronavirus does or even that it can.
> 
> When will the second wave of scaremongering peak?


Still further than the 6'6" distance given as a safe distance. And a lot further than the current 3'3" distance in use.


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## stowie (6 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Oh Hancock throws his dummy out the pram.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1312117010843660289?s=21




If he judges this to be divisive language, he really should be advised not to put his name into twitter search.


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## Rusty Nails (6 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Oh Hancock throws his dummy out the pram.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1312117010843660289?s=21




At the same time avoiding answering the question.


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## Edwardoka (6 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Oh Hancock throws his dummy out the pram.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1312117010843660289?s=21





Rusty Nails said:


> At the same time avoiding answering the question.


I understand that the answer he was going to give was on a spreadsheet but due to insufficient columns it was truncated.
Here's some divisive language for you, Hancock: #DIV/0!


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## mjr (7 Oct 2020)

Summary of situation and measures in some European countries:
https://www.thejournal.ie/europe-co...s-october-current-situations-5223964-Oct2020/


----------



## matticus (7 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Just need to increase the distance now.
> _"Pathogen-bearing droplets can be suspended in the air for not just seconds, but minutes, and can travel up to 27 feet."_
> 
> https://www.nationalgeographic.co.u...eze-can-launch-germs-much-farther-than-6-feet


That just emphasises how much more dangerous you are WITH symptoms, than just being a carrier.
"_How a *sneeze *can launch germs ... "_


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## marinyork (7 Oct 2020)

Similar modelling was one reason SAGE came up with a sneeze raising the risk by up to 1500 times.


----------



## icowden (7 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Similar modelling was one reason SAGE came up with a sneeze raising the risk by up to 1500 times.



The problem is that it isn't just the sneeze. It's also about the environment that the sneeze is in. If a few droplets hit you, you are less likely to be infected than if a thousand droplets hit you. Being outside or in a well ventilated are means that aerosol droplets get dispersed quickly

Interesting article here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-transmission-dose.html


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## tom73 (7 Oct 2020)

Nothing new in that a paper i've link on here covers all that and a summary of risk and environment. 
How long the droplet hang around is still unknown pioneering UK research into this is just underway. It's key that greater understanding of this is fed into covid secure guidelines. Moreover until we do know more many of the this that can't open will have to stay closed. 
A trail is also about to start into mask use and exercise to better understand what role they can play in source control.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (7 Oct 2020)

Another overly complex raft of measures from ScotGov today, full of ifs buts and exceptions. This is just going to annoy more people.


----------



## mjr (7 Oct 2020)

Belgium taking action as new cases nationally exceeds 22 per 100k with some big variations, so they are now in "orange alert":
- maximum of 4 per table in cafes and bars nationally (unless all one household) and earlier closing (11pm IIRC), 8 per table at home, 10 at work canteens.
- "social bubbles" cut to 4 (=you +3; was 6 or 8 I think), as are outdoor gatherings.

Brussels region: 500+ new cases per 100k. All cafes, exhibition halls and indoor sports to close for a month. Cafes complaining "why not restaurants too?" It seems red alert rules were not as finished as green, yellow or orange. Government ministers to quarantine+test after one tested positive.

Flemish Brabant province: it includes Brussels's northern fringes but has refused to close its bars. Masks now mandatory, though: if you're not wearing one (because outdoors away from a town centre, for example), you must be carrying one.

Walloon region: government ministers to quarantine and test after one tested positive.

Liege city fair cancelled. Showmen livid as they've already transported all their rides and shows to the city.

It'll be interesting to see if this is enough. The UK should be watching Belgium, France and Ireland to try to learn what works (or doesn't, as I suspect Flemish Brabant are about to demonstrate).

Another interesting snippet from Belgium: they reckon 10x uni students are asymptomatic than uni professors. That seems a massive difference and I think it's bigger than feared. It would help explain why student hotspots are so big.


----------



## MichaelW2 (7 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'd like to see a journalist asking what the test and trace numbers mean. Are the government pleased or frustrated that each positive person they contacted had an average of 5 to 6 high risk contacts.


The Radio4 program "More or Less" takes a mathematical look at these figures almost every week.


----------



## tom73 (7 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Another overly complex raft of measures from ScotGov today, full of ifs buts and exceptions. This is just going to annoy more people.



Oddly it glossed over universities and only for 2 weeks not sure that will be enough.


----------



## tom73 (7 Oct 2020)

See the cranks are at it again with the Great Barrington Declaration. 
Some pretty hard right in the mix as for the Oxford bunch not one has a single peer review paper on COVID transition.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (7 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> See the cranks are at it again with the Great Barrington Declaration.
> Some pretty hard right in the mix as for the Oxford bunch not one has a single peer review paper on COVID transition.



Expert responses. Very well worth a read. 

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...lockdown-policies-and-for-focused-protection/


----------



## roubaixtuesday (7 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> See the cranks are at it again with the Great Barrington Declaration.
> Some pretty hard right in the mix as for the Oxford bunch not one has a single peer review paper on COVID transition.



Sunetra Gupta, one of the authors has been predicting the end of the pandemic due to herd immunity since it started. 

Just for example

https://reaction.life/we-may-already-have-herd-immunity-an-interview-with-professor-sunetra-gupta/

It does make you wonder what it would take for her to change her mind.


----------



## tom73 (7 Oct 2020)

I thought it was pretty nailed with this. 
The Great Barrington Declaration is a libertarian agenda, packaged as science".

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lb9cidVAYs&feature=youtu.be


----------



## Richard1967 (7 Oct 2020)

What is in no doubt now the long term damage to our economy is going to be felt


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## tom73 (7 Oct 2020)

Richard1967 said:


> What is in no doubt now the long term damage to our economy is going to be felt


Much of that could have been avoided if we’d got on top the virus when we had a chance. The long term health effects of not hitting this hard is yet to come though in economic effects. Which can’t be fixed by bail outs or other fiscal ideas.


----------



## Richard1967 (8 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Much of that could have been avoided if we’d got on top the virus when we had a chance. The long term health effects of not hitting this hard is yet to come though in economic effects. Which can’t be fixed by bail outs or other fiscal ideas.


I think anyone would struggle to defend the UK’s response to this, but even countries who did respond well are now seeing a resurgence, Germany had nearly 4000 cases yesterday.


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## Mo1959 (8 Oct 2020)

Did anyone see the bit on the news about the people suffering from long Covid symptoms too? They only had mild symptoms at the time but are still suffering and needing physio in some cases. This is going to cost the country for so many years to come. I hope the government is going to be prepared to do all they can to ensure the NHS are up to the task of not only dealing with this disease but all the aftermath. As for many businesses, I am really fearful that a large percentage just won't make it through this.


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## tom73 (8 Oct 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Did anyone see the bit on the news about the people suffering from long Covid symptoms too? They only had mild symptoms at the time but are still suffering and needing physio in some cases. This is going to cost the country for so many years to come. I hope the government is going to be prepared to do all they can to ensure the NHS are up to the task of not only dealing with this disease but all the aftermath. As for many businesses, I am really fearful that a large percentage just won't make it through this.



A lot of work is going into this I do know some important NHS plans are coming along with rapid reviewed NICE guidelines. Also know that the need to improve and formally set out Long covid treatment. Has now got backing from high up in the health service. Along with funding to do it.
Given the current large outbreaks in uni's across the country students and staff need to start talking about this and be one the look out for it. 
Uni's need to get staff and students up to speed and health care on and off campus will also need to be on it pretty quick. I only know of one uni who's said anything and that was very limited. 
County wide long covid need's to be added to any public health messaging around covid. The continuing message that it only effect's the old
ect has become engraved into people's minds. That need's to change and the press also need to stop re-enforcing "the for most it's mild and nothing to worry" about message.


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## mjr (8 Oct 2020)

Richard1967 said:


> I think anyone would struggle to defend the UK’s response to this, but even countries who did respond well are now seeing a resurgence, Germany had nearly 4000 cases yesterday.


Very different magnitude to the UK:


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## pawl (8 Oct 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Did anyone see the bit on the news about the people suffering from long Covid symptoms too? They only had mild symptoms at the time but are still suffering and needing physio in some cases. This is going to cost the country for so many years to come. I hope the government is going to be prepared to do all they can to ensure the NHS are up to the task of not only dealing with this disease but all the aftermath. As for many businesses, I am really fearful that a large percentage just won't make it through this.





There was an article in last weeks comic regarding long Covid-19 It was looking at previously fit athletes that had fairly mild symptoms.Recovery appeared to be worse than the virus Fifteen minutes left them tired and breathless.The idiots who bang about it is only dangerous in the over fifty’s shouldlook at not only the short term affects but also the long term damage being done to the bodies vital organs.


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## marinyork (8 Oct 2020)

The Sun claims to have a leak on a vaccine plan. One of two vaccines could start being given in very small numbers from November to the end of the year. 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12872851/nhs-covid-vaccine-jab-christmas/


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## mjr (8 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> The Sun claims to have a leak on a vaccine plan. One of two vaccines could start being given in very small numbers from November to the end of the year.
> 
> https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12872851/nhs-covid-vaccine-jab-christmas/


The leak appears to be merely that the NHS has a vaccination plan. No news on when it might be used: "first trial results is in a month’s time ... Leaked provisional plans asked NHS teams to be ready from late October for mass vaccination. But with no treatment yet ready, the timings have been pushed back"


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> The leak appears to be merely that the NHS has a vaccination plan. No news on when it might be used: "first trial results is in a month’s time ... Leaked provisional plans asked NHS teams to be ready from late October for mass vaccination. But with no treatment yet ready, the timings have been pushed back"



I'd farking well hope we have a detailed, well thought through plan consulted with public, parliament, NHS and other interested parties by now, given that it's possible we'll have vaccine results in the next few days or weeks. 

There are profound ethical and practical considerations. 

To have done this half arsed and in secret would mesh perfectly with govt response though.


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Oct 2020)

There's been lots of noise recently again about Sweden, including the usual bollocks about how it's all over there because of herd immunity. 

I work on a project with Swedish lead, based in Gothenburg. Her husband's just tested positive, she's in for hers today. 

Only anecdotal of course, but nevertheless definitely not "over".


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## marinyork (8 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> The leak appears to be merely that the NHS has a vaccination plan. No news on when it might be used: "first trial results is in a month’s time ... Leaked provisional plans asked NHS teams to be ready from late October for mass vaccination. But with no treatment yet ready, the timings have been pushed back"



Noise the last couple of days. It's interesting it puts numbers on it. Perhaps a million jabs per month in the first 1-2 months.


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## MarkF (8 Oct 2020)

It's not a resurgance, but an entirely predictable rise at the same time as flu rises every year and for the same reasons, it'll rise again no doubt in winter, as flu also does.

The seasonal virus is endemic, in households, schools, universitys, workplaces, care homes and in hospitals. We have to live with it and doing
that is not going to be a human disaster.The government is now full blown psychotic, their lockdowns are proven to not work, the virus doesn't recognise any lockdown and these will provide no positives only negatives, just as if they'd been implemented to combat flu (of which masks have, unsurprisingly, made not a jot of difference). These lockdowns will be sure to kill many more, totally unnecessarily.

Remember, this started to "faltten the curve" and protect the NHS (fair enough), but which we now know didn't need protecting even at the virus peak capacity. It certainly does not need protecting now from this virus, nor will it ever.

The lockdown/measures are based on false test results, not deaths, not hospitalisations, not even poorly people but deliberate manipulation of data. Apart from the generally accepted huge % of false positives ,"cases"......

If I test positive today, I am included in this weeks stats
If I test negative today, I am included in this weeks stats.
If I have a later second test and test positive, I am included in that weeks stats
If I have a later second test and test negative, I am included NOT included that weeks stats.

Why no MSN data on hospital recoveries along with deaths, cases and hospitalisations? They are spectacularly high, they would give some perspective and stop the general public of being scared to death of a casedemic promising a never-to-arrive second wave which would carry a pretty much infinesimal risk anyway.

The average age of a victim is higher than the average UK lifespan.
Less than 320 UK citizens under 60 years of age have died of the virus.
The recent US university spike produced 70000 cases wow! But.....no deaths, the UK's university "spikes" won't prove any different.

Great to see both left and right wing newspapers today calling out lockdowns and (some) covid risk today, they have all woken up at long last to which way the wind is blowing, they could and should have done so much better. Sanity at last!


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## deptfordmarmoset (8 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> ... I am included NOT included ...


What?


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> the virus doesn't recognise any lockdown



Except the one in March. 

Oh, and the one in China. 

Etc.


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Why no MSN data on hospital recoveries along with deaths, cases and hospitalisations?



Because they are not reported by the authorities in this country


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> the UK's university "spikes" won't prove any different.



Yes they will, the overspill into the community will infect the vulnerable and kill them. 

I could go on on the various misconceptions, wishful thinking and downright falsehoods in your latest long screed, but it's too tedious.


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## mjr (8 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Because they are not reported by the authorities in this country


What's MSN data? Is it better or worse than ICQ data?


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> What's MSN data? Is it better or worse than ICQ data?



I assumed @MarkF meant MSM - ie a conspiracy theory that information is being concealed. No idea what ICQ is, sorry.


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## steve292 (8 Oct 2020)

You sure about this?


MarkF said:


> lockdowns are proven to not work, the virus doesn't recognise any lockdown and these will provide no positives only negatives, just as if they'd been implemented to combat flu (of which masks have, unsurprisingly, made not a jot of difference).


----------



## mjr (8 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> There's been lots of noise recently again about Sweden, including the usual bollocks about how it's all over there because of herd immunity. [....] Only anecdotal of course, but nevertheless definitely not "over".


I included Sweden in the graph I posted earlier. Exploring the data makes me suspect that they've not really started the second wave yet, after a first wave that took about two months longer to pass than here. They may just be bumping along a higher interwave baseline level than here, possibly due to Sweden's supposed constitutional inability to impose anything much tighter than what the UK had for the week before the main lockdown.

There's also no sign of herd immunity yet in countries that have had far higher case densitites than Sweden, such as the US and Brazil, which appear to be having prolonged first waves still.



MarkF said:


> The government is now full blown psychotic, their lockdowns are proven to not work,


Proven, except for all the evidence of first waves being reduced. It's more difficult to see whether the so-called "local lockdowns" are working, but that may be for a variety of reasons, including locking down the wrong things, lower compliance or confounding actions like migrating students into halls of residence.



> It certainly does not need protecting now from this virus, nor will it ever.


I hope you're right, but time will tell.



> The average age of a victim is higher than the average UK lifespan.


So? Is anyone who lives past about 80 expendable to you?



> The recent US university spike produced 70000 cases wow! But.....no deaths, the UK's university "spikes" won't prove any different.


I seriously doubt that it produced no deaths. Presumably you mean that none of the students died quickly from it? But what about those in their cities who they infected and what about long-term affects on those students? In the UK, having caught Asian flu and Hong Kong flu when young is still a detectable factor in health and deaths.



> Great to see both left and right wing newspapers today calling out lockdowns and (some) covid risk today, they have all woken up at long last to which way the wind is blowing, they could and should have done so much better. Sanity at last!


Only if by "great to see" you hate people and want to see more of your countrymen die. It gives me no confidence that this country has the stomach for the fight and to take even the relatively small steps to master this disease until vaccines are available. I predict less mask-wearing, more space-invaders and wider infection if this dodgy view keeps getting the oxygen of publicity in the press.


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## mjr (8 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I assumed @MarkF meant MSM - ie a conspiracy theory that information is being concealed. No idea what ICQ is, sorry.


Sorry, lame joke: ICQ ("I seek you") was a commercial internet chat service from a similar time to MSN Messenger (Micro Soft Network).


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## Edwardoka (8 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Sorry, lame joke: ICQ ("I seek you") was a commercial internet chat service from a similar time to MSN Messenger (Micro Soft Network).


Don't worry, at least one person got your lame joke. Can you still remember your UIN?


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## mjr (8 Oct 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Don't worry, at least one person got your lame joke. Can you still remember your UIN?


Nope, so I suspect my User Identification Number wasn't even as memorable as the university IP number addresses that are still stuck in my mind... Apparently, ICQ got bought by AOL and then by Mail.RU and is still stumbling on, but there are allegations that Russian security services snoop on it. MSN Messenger was rebranded a few times and finally officially closed in 2014.


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## tom73 (8 Oct 2020)

On the same day test and trace reached a new low the government also confirm that hospitals are 10 day away from reaching critical point.


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## MarkF (8 Oct 2020)

Here we go, one of the best yet. So instead of a "normal" anywhere between 1000's and 30000 dying of flu in a winter season, 394 people died of flu in January to August 2020. You couldn't make it up, oh, they just did, unless Covid is a cure for flu?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-and-pneumonia-combined-figures-show-12098893


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## tom73 (8 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> The Sun claims to have a leak on a vaccine plan. One of two vaccines could start being given in very small numbers from November to the end of the year.
> 
> https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12872851/nhs-covid-vaccine-jab-christmas/


No word on who's going to supervise all these extra people dishing out jabs or who's going to train them. 
Will we even know by November if they really work or how long they last ? Have they any plan on what to do if they don't or turn out to be a bit nasty weeks or mouths later? 
We can't afford any mistrust of this vaccine given how important it's going to be. Rushing headlong into this could well risk everything.


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## fossyant (8 Oct 2020)

Not looking good for us in the North.


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## stowie (8 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> There's also no sign of herd immunity yet in countries that have had far higher case densitites than Sweden, such as the US and Brazil, which appear to be having prolonged first waves still.



Manaus - Brazil - has seen a surge in COVID cases recently and have shut down bars and restaurants. Manaus was the city that didn't really lock down first time around and ended up seeing huge rates of COVID. Hospitals couldn't cope and the city authority ended up burying the dead in mass graves. From anti-body studies, researchers estimated maybe 44%-66% of the population had been infected in the April epidemic. 

In July the number of cases dropped dramatically and it was speculated that this was due to herd immunity.

But the recent increase in cases indicates that either the numbers infected were too low for effective herd immunity or that the individual immunity wasn't effective for more than 4-6 months.


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Covid is a cure for flu?



Indeed, yes, it is


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## deptfordmarmoset (8 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Here we go, one of the best yet. So instead of a "normal" anywhere between 1000's and 30000 dying of flu in a winter season, 394 people died of flu in January to August 2020. You couldn't make it up, oh, they just did, unless Covid is a cure for flu?
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-and-pneumonia-combined-figures-show-12098893


Flu figures were already low at the beginning of the year and social distancing, better hygiene and masks will not have helped the flu virus spread throughout the year. BTW, the Guardian had the figures down as 3 times more deadly than pneumonia and 100 times more deadly than flu this year.


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## raleighnut (8 Oct 2020)

Yep who'd have thought that staying away from people and wearing a face covering would stop another airborne virus as well and as for those people who insist on coming into work and coughing and spluttering all over other people.


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## mjr (8 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> Not looking good for us in the North.


No, indeed, but what about covid?


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Oct 2020)

I think someone mentioned an "Edinburgh" study published supposedly supporting herd immunity.

Blog from one of the authors:

_The coverage has been rather unfortunate, as it is being interpreted as supporting a herd immunity strategy, which is certainly not what (I think) we were trying to argue. _

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpr...long-term-covidsim-predictions-from-report-9/


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## Ming the Merciless (8 Oct 2020)

Dion Humphreys from Porthmadog wrote: “Absolutely f***ing knob there’s a reason parts of Wales are going in to lockdown, we don’t want you lot bringing more cases to Wales. Now f*** off and stay in England.”

Welcome to Wales. The mistaken belief that others bring the virus into their area rather than they brought it themselves. But like Trump blaming everything on China.


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## tom73 (8 Oct 2020)

Thought he now thanks god for his COVID gift?


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## Rusty Nails (8 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Dion Humphreys from Porthmadog wrote: “Absolutely f***ing knob there’s a reason parts of Wales are going in to lockdown, we don’t want you lot bringing more cases to Wales. Now f*** off and stay in England.”
> 
> Welcome to Wales. The mistaken belief that others bring the virus into their area rather than they brought it themselves. But like Trump blaming everything on China.





Like it or not, and tbh it doesn't matter a bit either of which you do, there are totally different local restrictions in Wales which stop around 80% of the population from moving out of those local lockdown areas into Gwynedd/Porthmadog. It is understandable if anyone from Porthmadog resents it that there are no such restrictions on people from other parts of the UK, especially if they are from one of the very high infection areas in the north of England. He would probably say the same about someone from Cardiff, Swansea, Wrexham or Merthyr under current conditions.

Dion Humphries himself sounds like a bit of a knob in the manner of his response to Simon Calder's article, and who did not deserve such an attack, but, as Calder himself says:

_"I understand the deep concern of any community that is fearful of outsiders spreading this vile virus. Quite rightly, it is for the people of Wales to decide whether, when and which tourists should visit the nation.
The concept of quarantine targeted at visitors from high-risk areas of England, as outlined by the Welsh health minister this week, has merit. But meanwhile there is a tourism economy to support"_


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## Ming the Merciless (8 Oct 2020)

This been posted, a map of what restrictions are where?

https://visual.parliament.uk/resear...22804&lat=53.51977311571076&zoom=6&showmore=1


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## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Thought he now thanks god for his COVID gift?


Did anyone else expect him to continue and say he was on a mission from God and don some shades? 

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4YrCFz0Kfc


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## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

So finally we're getting simplified levels of restrictions, which many countries and even Cycling UK has had for months. Yay!

But they'll be called "tiers" and not linked to the covid alert levels 5-1 (despite the title on this BBC graphic!). WTF? Does this make sense to anyone?


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## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

The tiers shouldn't be linked to anything, otherwise you might have to have restrictions in proper tory voting areas .


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## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

BBC 
The UK government's business minister Nadhim Zahawi has said the trend of rising cases across the country "is worrying".
A week ago, the number of new confirmed cases was 7,000 - but seven days later on Thursday they were at 17,000, he points out.
(Read more here on the number of cases in the UK.)
"That puts into perspective for your viewers the urgency of the interventions we're having to make," Mr Zahawi told BBC Breakfast, as he defended restrictions on the hospitality industry such as the 22:00 BST closing time.
He added: "Chris Whitty the chief medical officer, shared some slides with colleagues from the North yesterday which demonstrate that clearly social interactions in restaurants and cafes is about 30% of the infections."
He said he "deeply" dislikes having to bring in restrictions but unfortunately they have to be done "to control the virus".


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## matticus (9 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> The tiers shouldn't be linked to anything, otherwise you might have to have restrictions in proper tory voting areas .


I'm surprised no-one has done an overlay of restrictions (or case density) with red/blue for MP. (or I haven't seen it yet ... )


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## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> He added: "Chris Whitty the chief medical officer, shared some slides with colleagues from the North yesterday which demonstrate that clearly social interactions in restaurants and cafes is about 30% of the infections."


Is this evidence public? Cafe associations in several countries are asking for it but no government seems to be answering.

It's believable that cafes and bars may be significant because scenes like the below (little distancing, servers with masks as neck ornaments, naff all hand cleaning) seem common even when they know the cameras are on them (the bar staff were giving interviews). The crush to leave through small streets at curfew is probably unhelpful, too.


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## MarkF (9 Oct 2020)

Another doctor who's been banging on since March and been right every time, ex-colleague of one of our duo of public govt scaremongerers and ex CEO of Pfizer. Dr Michael Yeadon.


For others, impacts are substantial. Failures of businesses small & large are unavoidable despite Govt assistance & poverty is an inevitable consequence. The interruption to normal social lives represent, for some, the severing of crucial contacts without which their lives are lonely & without meaning. But the effects of the restrictions are most evident on people’s health. The NHS is harder to access than before, resulting in missed maternity reviews, lowered rates of childhood vaccinations & checks on development milestones in babies. There has been a catastrophic fall in the rates of routine screening for diseases which, if detected early, have a high chance of good outcomes, like tests for cancers. GPs normally urgently refer a small fraction of their patients for investigation of worrisome signs & symptoms. This everyday, lifesaving practise is reduced alarmingly. There is no question that a large number of people have already suffered & died avoidable deaths as a direct effect of ‘measures’ who’s stated intent is to preserve life.

Many children & young adults at schools and universities are being deprived of important educational opportunities which will be permanently lost. These young people will bear the scars of the unfocused measures for the rest of their lives. Depression & anxiety across the country has greatly increased and is going innly one direction. Who among us can say the price being paid in livelihoods, suffering & deaths of tens of thousands of our fellow citizens is a price worth paying? 

The ghastly irony is anyway clear. These measures aren’t even effective in preventing transmission of respiratory viruses. We can already see the increases in seasonal viral illnesses, from colds to ‘flu. Speaking of ‘flu, the Declaration asks us to do no more than we do, as individuals & as a society, in relation to risks from ‘flu. Despite ‘flu vaccines, and care in relation to elderly or unwell relatives & friends, we’re generally mindful not to spread illness when we are symptomatic. Most are mature enough to recognise that ‘flu fatalities are a consequence of shared existence and in many cases is the final illness is the old & infirm.

The vast majority of deaths from covid19 are in the elderly. Median age of those perishing of or with this virus is over 80. The risk of imminent demise of those of advanced years is well understood & even successfully avoided in the case of covid19 for some people, others of the many endemic or seasonal viruses will instead be that final illness. Importantly, we are now appreciating that the magnitude of the threat to life & health of covid19 is, mercifully, not close to the levels we initially thought, from way back in the early spring. It has lways been the case that estimates of the lethality of new infectious disease outbreaks are greater during the event than calculated in the cold light of day. This is mostly because we greatly underestimate the numbers of people who’ve been infected yet had mild or no ymptoms. It is already clear that, far from being an unusually virulent & lethal virus, improving estimates of the morbidity & mortality associated with covid19 show it to be rather ordinary. I’m confident that in retrospect, we will see covid19, from a medical perspective, as akin to seasonal influenza, killing around 1 in 1000 people it infects. In matters affecting the whole population, it’s important to be dispassionate. The general public doesn’t routinely need to know that every year, just under 1% of us won’t make our next birthday. Viewed against that, which represents around 620,000 deaths annually, the approximately 0.06% who have died from or with covid19 is, as you can see, from an actuarial perspective, not even a leading cause of death. 

*So here we are, engaged in a battle to prevent the spread of a single, not particularly remarkable respiratory virus, using methods that simply don’t work, while seemingly willing to accept, as a price worth paying, the indirect & avoidable deaths of tens of thousands of our families, friends & neighbours*. On top of this, the impacts on the economy of the measures have had & will continue to wreak devastation on the lives of millions of the most vulnerable people. I have never accepted this ‘lethal calculus’, and I don’t believe you should either. That said, I’m not defeatist at all about how better to handle the threats that covid19 represents. We’re so much more able to save more lives of those made deeply ill by it than we were in spring. We know now only rarely to ventilate, for this is not a disease of airways obstruction but of impaired gas exchange, so we offer oxygen masks. Often this alone both relieves extreme distress but is sufficient for the patient to bridge a few days & move onto a path of healing. We’re now alert to clotting disorders, so carefully monitor parameters of coagulation & where needed, we’ve a medicine chest f anti-coagulants ancient & modern on which to rely. And we also now know that overwhelming inflammation can be part of the course of disease in some, and know how to safely use powerful anti-inflammatory corticosteroids (most familiar you us through their beneficial effects on asthma). We don’t yet have a vaccine, that much is true. But do note, a vaccine isn’t going to be a panacea. I think it’s most important to recognise that in the very old & already unwell, vaccines are often simply not very effective.

You require a well unctioning immune system in order to benefit from a vaccine. I do think we’ve lost our way completely on all this. Many people may think the measures imposed on us will at least end triumphantly as medical science vanquishes this virus. I don’t wish to be overly negative but we don’t even know if vaccines will much reduce the death rate from covid19. It may surprise you to learn that this endpoint, deaths, is not something even being studied in clinical trials. The main objective is to understand the durability of an immune response to the vaccines in development. I believe there may be some “challenge studies” yet to be conducted. So we actually don’t even know for such to what extent vaccines will reduce illness, either. Now, I do expect they will reduce the severity of illness in some. I’m open-minded to the possibility it will only have a marginal impact on deaths. It’s also the case that only a minority of population have any need whatsoever for a vaccine against covid19. That’s because most of us are not made ill by it & most who are, do not require hospitalisation. In his regard, it’s very like ‘flu. We offer ‘flu vaccination to people over 60, some others who are more vulnerable as a consequence of an ongoing illness & to some children (‘flu can kill children, though it is an extremely rare event). Others talk of ‘long Covid’. While of course we must remain vigilant to prolonged consequences of a severe illness from this virus, it’s important that you know that this syndrome is not at all new. The way it’s discussed, you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s a new observation. It also occurs after other viral illnesses, including ‘flu. The data are yet young, but good reviews have appeared & so far, there’s no sign that ‘long’ occurs more often or with greater severity after covid19 than after ‘flu. Turning to the immune system, it’s vital to appreciate some important points.

Firstly, ‘flu mutates at a high rate & so despite perhaps having ‘flu last year does not, sadly, mean you can’t get it this year. The vaccines that are made available are the best guess of the likely dominant strain by the time it reaches us. The effectiveness of ‘flu vaccines is quite limited & in some years, almost nothing at all. But we don’t restrict society for months on end. If we were to chase around the country, testing the population for the presence of partial genetic sequences of ‘flu, we’d be shocked. A very large number of people will be infected by ‘flu from now until spring 2021. But few will be made very ill by it and some - we’ve no idea how many - people will die from it given that there isn’t any meaningful immunity in the population to each new strain of ‘flu......


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## MarkF (9 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Flu figures were already low at the beginning of the year and social distancing, better hygiene and masks will not have helped the flu virus spread throughout the year. BTW, the Guardian had the figures down as 3 times more deadly than pneumonia and 100 times more deadly than flu this year.



I think in 12 months we'll see that it was no more deadly than flu, for the general population.


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## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Is this evidence public? Cafe associations in several countries are asking for it but no government seems to be answering.



I'm not sure it's yet public. You know what PHE are like about sharing stuff, although these days things are normally buried in longer reports given out a few days later.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> "That puts into perspective for your viewers the urgency of the interventions we're having to make," Mr Zahawi told BBC Breakfast



Which would be great if they were actually being urgent about it. 

Whereas what's actually happening is that the govt can't agree amongst itself what to do so is dithering while cases double every ten days.


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## tom73 (9 Oct 2020)

The slide is here some MP leaked it yesterday 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-54464470


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## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> It's believable that cafes and bars may be significant because scenes like the below (little distancing, servers with masks as neck ornaments, naff all hand cleaning) seem common even when they know the cameras are on them (the bar staff were giving interviews). The crush to leave through small streets at curfew is probably unhelpful, too.



Even in the legal enforcement days there are still too many cafes/pubs/restaurants with visors. It should be mask + visor. Yet yesterday I went to a cafe for takeaway where no one chose to sit inside anyway and the full track and trace overzealously asked for every single person rather than groups.


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## bitsandbobs (9 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Another doctor who's been banging on since March and been right every time, ex-colleague of one of our duo of public govt scaremongerers and *ex CEO* of Pfizer. Dr Michael Yeadon.



That is likely to be a surprise to Pfizer


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## tom73 (9 Oct 2020)

Dr Michael Yeadon yet another anti lock down "expert" who's not got a single Peer reviewed paper into covid or it's transmission. 
Funny that wonder why ?


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## fossyant (9 Oct 2020)

I wish we'd have some clarity about further restrictions - the media has been saying non-essential businesses will also shut, which is a damn sight tougher than just bars and restaurants.


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## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Dr Michael Yeadon yet another anti lock down "expert" who's not got a single Peer reviewed paper into covid or it's transmission.
> Funny that wonder why ?


Oh, but "Chemtrails Project UK" gave him such a glowing review(!)


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## vickster (9 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> I wish we'd have some clarity about further restrictions - the media has been saying non-essential businesses will also shut, which is a damn sight tougher than just bars and restaurants.


Are they saying what those are...or simply speculating?


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## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> The slide is here some MP leaked it yesterday
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-54464470


Analysis of about 400 cases, excludes education and most work outbreaks because Dick and Dom have refused to consider restricting them again! Even then, you have to squint, use broad classes and include staff to see 30% of remaining cases there:






Excluding all education from such analyses would go some way to explain why uni halls were let get so bad. A better analysis would be to list all and label ones they won't restrict as red lines. The science should inform the politics even about the price we're paying for the benefits they believe we get. The politics should not limit the science like this.


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## fossyant (9 Oct 2020)

vickster said:


> Are they saying what those are...or simply speculating?



Seems to be speculation, but something was on the local BBC news last night. The lack of clarity is causing all this, and of course increasing Joe public's worry. Like many, I'm so tired of it all.


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## tom73 (9 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> I wish we'd have some clarity about further restrictions - the media has been saying non-essential businesses will also shut, which is a damn sight tougher than just bars and restaurants.


Give it a few hours and it will leak out.


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## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Give it a few hours and it will leak out.


After which, the outrage will make them dither more, then announce something different, which only comes into effect days later because all the dithering means the law isn't drafted sooner...


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## vickster (9 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> Seems to be speculation, but something was on the local BBC news last night. The lack of clarity is causing all this, and of course increasing Joe public's worry. Like many, I'm so tired of it all.


Personally I don’t bother speculating about something I have no control over, much less stressful that way. Just go with the current rules and adapt IF and WHEN they change


----------



## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1313055228644777984


----------



## PK99 (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Oh, but "Chemtrails Project UK" gave him such a glowing review(!)



This post prompted me to go to "Chemtrails..." to see the review.

The only search result on Chemtrails for Yeadon is a link to an article he wrote :

https://lockdownsceptics.org/lies-d...tistics-the-deadly-danger-of-false-positives/

I can't find the "glowing review" perhaps you could provide a link?

Or perhaps I am looking a the wrong author, this is the guy who wrote the article;

_Dr Mike Yeadon is the former CSO and VP, Allergy and Respiratory Research Head with Pfizer Global R&D and co-Founder of Ziarco Pharma Ltd._


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## tom73 (9 Oct 2020)

Monday is not looking quick enough. 

View: https://twitter.com/IndependentSage/status/1314489079996862466?s=20


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

Entertaining but depressing thread from James Annan, modeller who has been excoriating of SAGE, and appeared on More or Less.


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1314503250612228097


Sadly, the story of the pandemic failure in the uk is scientific as well as political, and neither side learned from the catastrophe of the first wave.


----------



## bitsandbobs (9 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Dr Michael Yeadon yet another anti lock down "expert" who's not got a single Peer reviewed paper into covid or it's transmission.
> Funny that wonder why ?



I don't suppose Chris Whitton and Patrick Vallance do either. Or the various members of SAGE.


----------



## PK99 (9 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Dr Michael Yeadon yet another anti lock down "expert" who's not got a single Peer reviewed paper into covid or it's transmission.
> Funny that wonder why ?



As opposed to the many experts posting here who do have such papers?


----------



## tom73 (9 Oct 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> I don't suppose Chris Whitton and Patrick Vallance do either. Or the various members of SAGE.


Look them up and it will tell you why they are safer bet than the rest.


----------



## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> I don't suppose Chris Whitton and Patrick Vallance do either. Or the various members of SAGE.


Whitty not Whitton. Bit of attention to detail, please!

They're probably a bit busy but I expect they may publish later. Whitty has quite some publication history on other diseases, especially malaria.

We still don't know who all of SAGE are, but some of them are definitely publishing about this already and stuff is now reaching the peer-reviewed journals. Here's two recent journal papers, for example: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0141076820956824 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003335062030319X?via=ihub

Now I'm cross that I spent time fact-checking another throwaway slur.


----------



## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

PK99 said:


> The only search result on Chemtrails for Yeadon is a link to an article he wrote :
> [...]
> 
> I can't find the "glowing review" perhaps you could provide a link?


Sorry, I misspoke: I meant "uncritical republication" (it was not only a link), rather than the weaker endorsement of "glowing review".



> Or perhaps I am looking a the wrong author, this is the guy who wrote the article;
> 
> _Dr Mike Yeadon is the former CSO and VP, Allergy and Respiratory Research Head with Pfizer Global R&D and co-Founder of Ziarco Pharma Ltd._


Ah, maybe we both are. The posts above make it clear that we should be discussing the Dr Mike Yeadon who was CEO of Pfizer(!)


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (9 Oct 2020)

Trying to intervene in the virus pandemic is just making things worse if anything. If we had not had a lockdown earlier in the year there would have been a lot more cases during the summer and quite possibly lower levels of transmission going towards the winter.
Trying to prevent an infectious disease transmitting is futile, as the current situation shows. There are going to be a global total of X number of cases of the coronavirus no matter what, and trying to squeeze down the numbers earlier in the year has simply delayed the virus by a few months, but with huge collateral damage.
If you look at cases in those countries where the lockdown measures were only half-hearted, cases peaked and are now just rumbling along at a roughly constant rate - a "controlled burn". The countries that tried early on to have strict lockdown measures in many cases are the ones who are now experiencing the worst of the second waves.
There is a natural limit to the rate at which the virus can transmit, which is due to a mixture of the amount of population immunity and the degree of social interaction.
On the current case numbers, the virus is spreading faster per head of population in the UK than it is in either the USA or Brazil, despite how critics have enjoyed slating those two countries response. They have levelled off whilst we are now going through the roof.


----------



## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Trying to intervene in the virus pandemic is just making things worse if anything. If we had not had a lockdown earlier in the year there would have been a lot more cases during the summer and quite possibly lower levels of transmission going towards the winter.


Where "quite possibly" = "based on my prejudices and almost no evidence".



> If you look at cases in those countries where the lockdown measures were only half-hearted, cases peaked and are now just rumbling along at a roughly constant rate - a "controlled burn".


As disproof, I offer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/ or any of the other countries with weak lockdowns and not effective TTT. They peaked and are rumbling along mostly at near-peak levels.



> The countries that tried early on to have strict lockdown measures in many cases are the ones who are now experiencing the worst of the second waves.[...]
> On the current case numbers, the virus is spreading faster per head of population in the UK than it is in either the USA or Brazil, despite how critics have enjoyed slating those two countries response. They have levelled off whilst we are now going through the roof.


Only because they're arguably still on a very long and deadly first wave! How can anyone seriously justify saying that the UK should have let so many more die? If the UK followed the same trajectory as Brazil, we would have had 3 more months of 900ish deaths/day by now, instead of about 12 deaths/day: about 80,000 more deaths.


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## tom73 (9 Oct 2020)

Encouraging check in via the App may not be helping after all. 
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...e-alert-about-an-outbreak-in-a-venue-12099651


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## raleighnut (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Trying to intervene in the virus pandemic is just making things worse if anything. If we had not had a lockdown earlier in the year there would have been a lot more cases during the summer and quite possibly lower levels of transmission going towards the winter.
> Trying to prevent an infectious disease transmitting is futile, as the current situation shows. There are going to be a global total of X number of cases of the coronavirus no matter what, and trying to squeeze down the numbers earlier in the year has simply delayed the virus by a few months, but with huge collateral damage.
> If you look at cases in those countries where the lockdown measures were only half-hearted, cases peaked and are now just rumbling along at a roughly constant rate - a "controlled burn". The countries that tried early on to have strict lockdown measures in many cases are the ones who are now experiencing the worst of the second waves.
> There is a natural limit to the rate at which the virus can transmit, which is due to a mixture of the amount of population immunity and the degree of social interaction.
> On the current case numbers, the virus is spreading faster per head of population in the UK than it is in either the USA or Brazil, despite how critics have enjoyed slating those two countries response. They have levelled off whilst we are now going through the roof.


Yep generally through people not adhering to the advice given by refusing to wear masks and giving false details in pubs etc. The selfish people who are 'going to carry on as before' have made this pandemic far worse for the country.


----------



## classic33 (9 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Another doctor who's been banging on since March and been right every time, ex-colleague of one of our duo of public govt scaremongerers and ex CEO of Pfizer. Dr Michael Yeadon.
> 
> 
> For others, impacts are substantial. Failures of businesses small & large are unavoidable despite Govt assistance & poverty is an inevitable consequence. The interruption to normal social lives represent, for some, the severing of crucial contacts without which their lives are lonely & without meaning. But the effects of the restrictions are most evident on people’s health. The NHS is harder to access than before, resulting in missed maternity reviews, lowered rates of childhood vaccinations & checks on development milestones in babies. There has been a catastrophic fall in the rates of routine screening for diseases which, if detected early, have a high chance of good outcomes, like tests for cancers. GPs normally urgently refer a small fraction of their patients for investigation of worrisome signs & symptoms. This everyday, lifesaving practise is reduced alarmingly. There is no question that a large number of people have already suffered & died avoidable deaths as a direct effect of ‘measures’ who’s stated intent is to preserve life.
> ...


Cut and paste, or all your own wording?


----------



## All uphill (9 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Yep generally through people not adhering to the advice given by refusing to wear masks and giving false details in pubs etc. The selfish people who are 'going to carry on as before' have made this pandemic far worse for the country.


There a few people I know who are very strong on "Blitz spirit" and "pulling together for Great Britain" who just can't quite wear a mask, stay away from the pub or be considerate of more vulnerable people.


----------



## classic33 (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Sorry, I misspoke: I meant "uncritical republication" (it was not only a link), rather than the weaker endorsement of "glowing review".
> 
> 
> *Ah, maybe we both are. The posts above make it clear that we should be discussing the Dr Mike Yeadon who was CEO of Pfizer(!)*


Same person.
And yes I have.


----------



## vickster (9 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Same person.
> And yes I have.


CSO not CEO


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## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Encouraging check in via the App may not be helping after all.
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...e-alert-about-an-outbreak-in-a-venue-12099651


Sounds like questionable management of an afterthought feature. I'm surprised if local tracing teams cannot get venue alerts sent and that the venue alert message is fairly weak.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> If the UK followed the same trajectory as Brazil, we would have had 3 more months of 900ish deaths/day by now, instead of about 12 deaths/day: about 80,000 more deaths



Indeed, daily deaths in Brazil are still north of 600 and declining only gradually. Brazil has a population ~3x ours






If you think this is a good model, and you think it translates to the UK then you're supporting daily deaths of 200 without end.


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## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Indeed, daily deaths in Brazil are still north of 600 and declining only gradually. Brazil has a population ~3x ours


...in an area ~35x ours. I arrived at the 900 deaths/day figure by suggesting we'd remain at near-peak levels like they have.

In one way, it doesn't really matter whether it would be 200 or 900 - both mean far more would have died than the 12 or so deaths/day that the UK achieved in between waves.


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## SkipdiverJohn (9 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Yep generally through people not adhering to the advice given by refusing to wear masks and giving false details in pubs etc. The selfish people who are 'going to carry on as before' have made this pandemic far worse for the country.



It's the people like you who want to disrupt daily life that are making it last much longer than it needs to. No-one can stop the virus, so we might as well let it run and get it over and done with, then normality can return ASAP.
Do you want _years_ of worsening economic damage, business failures, millions more job losses, and long-term interference in people's right to go about their business as they see fit?


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> No-one can stop the virus,



Other than a geographically and economically diverse range of countries, that is.


----------



## Rezillo (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Now I'm cross that I spent time fact-checking another throwaway slur.



There are a few posts here that are so depressingly wrong and in such an extensive way, it makes one want to weep. In the main, I've given up - it's a fruitless task to rebut those with conviction rather than evidence-based agendas.

Not that it is confined to a mere cycling forum. The food and drinks industry in its claims about infection risk appears to be confusing ARIs (acute respiratory infection incidents) firstly with Covid incidents (which only make up some of the ARIs) and then with Covid cases, apparently failing to realise that an ARI could be two cases or two hundred. This means that in an extensively monitored envronment such as care homes, where a couple of qualifying cases can easily be picked up, a hundred ARIs could equate to fewer Covid cases than from a handful of food outlet ARIs. Even considering ARIs alone, in week 37, the Covid-confirmed food outlet sector incidents were only 1 off being second in the source list. They subsequently got overtaken by educational sector incidents.

[edited for repeated typos]


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## Salty seadog (9 Oct 2020)

I hope the government have got the extra ventilators they were trying to get. If not that's a pretty big WTF.


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## tom73 (9 Oct 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> I hope the government have got the extra ventilators they were trying to get. If not that's a pretty big WTF.



They may have but they don't have the staff to use them.


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## SkipdiverJohn (9 Oct 2020)

I really don't know why the media is getting worked up at things like university outbreaks, because the mortality rate from such events is virtually zero. Rather than have knee-jerk local responses I would just give all the students as much beer and party food as they could consume and tell them to all mix with each other within their own group as much as possible. In a couple of weeks you could effectively immunize the whole university population on-campus and effectively prevent them being able to transmit the virus to the wider population.


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## stowie (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> It's the people like you who want to disrupt daily life that are making it last much longer than it needs to. No-one can stop the virus, so we might as well let it run and get it over and done with, then normality can return ASAP.
> Do you want _years_ of worsening economic damage, business failures, millions more job losses, and long-term interference in people's right to go about their business as they see fit?



I do keep saying this, but Manaus in Brazil did what you are advocating. Their health service was utterly overrun. They were burying the dead in mass graves. I know we have more available healthcare to all, but this would just mean it collapses later rather than sooner.

In July Manaus COVID infection figures dropped significantly. There was speculation and ongoing studies that maybe they had reached herd immunity - an estimated 44%-66% of the population had contracted COVID. But recently the numbers have surged again. They are, this time, shutting down. It may be that mild or asymptomatic cases of COVID result in only a temporary immunity measured in months. But it is not clear why the cases fell and why they are rising again.

Long story short - places have done similar to what you advocate and ended up in this situation


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## deptfordmarmoset (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I really don't know why the media is getting worked up at things like university outbreaks, because the mortality rate from such events is virtually zero. Rather than have knee-jerk local responses I would just give all the students as much beer and party food as they could consume and tell them to all mix with each other within their own group as much as possible. In a couple of weeks you could effectively immunize the whole university population on-campus and effectively prevent them being able to transmit the virus to the wider population.


And go home to kill nan for Christmas...


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## SkipdiverJohn (9 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And go home to kill nan for Christmas...



No, that's the whole point. All the students need to catch the virus as soon as possible, so that by the time they break up for Christmas, they will have already had it and be clear of it. All the attempts to prevent it spreading in places like universities is doing is meaning there will be more potentially infectious students around at the end of the term. A concerted "catch the virus now, and protect your granny for Christmas" campaign could go a long way to neutralising the threat to elderly family members.


----------



## raleighnut (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> It's the people like you who want to disrupt daily life that are making it last much longer than it needs to. No-one can stop the virus, so we might as well let it run and get it over and done with, then normality can return ASAP.
> Do you want _years_ of worsening economic damage, business failures, millions more job losses, and long-term interference in people's right to go about their business as they see fit?


TBH following the advice hasn't really made much of a difference to my life. Pubs have been shite since the smoking ban and the 'opinion poll' 4 years ago made them worse, Restuarants well I can cook better food at home than the microwaved pap they sell, I could go on but I won't. You go on about _people's right to go about their business as they see fit _well my rights to live in other countries has been forcibly removed as has my 'right' to smoke wherever I like.


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## Rezillo (9 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> I do keep saying this, but Manaus in Brazil did what you are advocating. Their health service was utterly overrun. They were burying the dead in mass graves. I know we have more available healthcare to all, but this would just mean it collapses later rather than sooner.



Same thing happened in Lombardy - local hospitals overwhelmed, then many, many people dying at home, followed by collapse of local undertaking services and on at least one occasion the army brought in to convoy the bodies away. 

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/italy-army-coffins-coronavirus/


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## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

Rezillo said:


> [...] The food and drinks industry in its claims about infection risk appears to be confusing ARIs (acute respiratory infection incidents) firstly with Covid incidents (which only make up some of the ARIs) and then with Covid cases, apparently failing to realise that an ARI could be two cases or two hundred. This means that in an extensively monitored envronment such as care homes, where a couple of qualifying cases can easily be picked up, a hundred AFIs could equate to fewer Covid cases than from a handful of food outlet AFIs. Even considering AFIs alone, in week 37, the Covid-confirmed food outlet sector incidents were only 1 off being second in the source list. They subsequently got overtaken by educational sector incidents.


What's an AFI in this context?

Conviction-based remarks are easy to report. Reporting evidence-based news is much more difficult and it feels like it isn't rewarded by the marketplace, so the main thing preventing a total race to the bottom in news coverage are the last vestiges of journalism ethics — but now we've got a failed newspaper columnist as PM and an ex-Newsnight ex-ITV editor taking the top PR job in Downing Street now with a daily primetime TV show. I fear that temptation may grow too much for many journalists who see conviction-based reporting as a path to power and/or fame.


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## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And go home to kill nan for Christmas...


But they'll kill their teachers and the researchers and techs and other academic workers sooner - but that's OK because "people have had enough of experts" and it's not like we need research labs to develop treatments, preventatives or vaccines


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## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> But they'll kill their teachers and the researchers and techs and other academic workers sooner - but that's OK because "people have had enough of experts" and it's not like we need research labs to develop treatments, preventatives or vaccines



People have had enough of experts. It's very much the situation the world is in.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (9 Oct 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Same thing happened in Lombardy - local hospitals overwhelmed, then many, many people dying at home, followed by collapse of local undertaking services and on at least one occasion the army brought in to convoy the bodies away.
> 
> https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/italy-army-coffins-coronavirus/



In any country/locality there is going to be a manageable infection rate, which will depend on a whole host of factors both economic and demographic. The only justification I see for any form of coronavirus restrictions to normal life, is to try to keep the amount of infection cases just below the point at which the local services would be overwhelmed. So long as you achieve that, then the virus is manageable until such time it naturally burns itself out through less and less efficient transmission.
Having waves of virus followed by hard lockdowns, then further, even larger, waves of virus followed by more hard lockdowns, is not achieving anything - other than to wreck the economies of the countries doing it.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The only justification I see for any form of coronavirus restrictions to normal life, is to try to keep the amount of infection cases just below the point at which the local services would be overwhelmed



Yeah. Easy to control that and of course doesn't matter how many corpses litter the path.


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## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> No, that's the whole point. All the students need to catch the virus as soon as possible, so that by the time they break up for Christmas, they will have already had it and be clear of it. All the attempts to prevent it spreading in places like universities is doing is meaning there will be more potentially infectious students around at the end of the term. A concerted "catch the virus now, and protect your granny for Christmas" campaign could go a long way to neutralising the threat to elderly family members.



There needs to be a plan for the end of term as discussed in many spheres. Mass testing and more support than there is, perhaps pool testing on a regular basis such as a week for all uni students in halls, staff etc to try and pick up cases a bit faster. Then at the end of term some quiet time before the mass migration which will happen even if they make it illegal for students to leave (because it happened in March/April/May).

The unis and government mostly seem bothered about quoting headline figures in an entire university. This sort of nonsense needs to stop as it doesn't really help anyone. There need to be detailed breakdown of figures. 

Although problematic the authorities and unis do need to keep tabs on percentages in this dense accommodotion on a very small unit extended flat by extended flat and block level and when they have caught it, as it will be invaluable later in the year/studies.


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## SkipdiverJohn (9 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> There needs to be a plan for the end of term as discussed in many spheres. Mass testing and more support than there is, perhaps pool testing on a regular basis such as a week for all uni students in halls, staff etc to try and pick up cases a bit faster.



You're still working under the premis that it's actually desirable to identify and try to isolate university infections. But what's the point? The vast majority of the student population are at very low risk from the virus, so why bother even testing them at the point of infection? A more rational approach would be to make no attempt whatsoever to prevent the virus spreading within university accommodation, then give all the students antibody tests just before the end of term so they would know if they had already been exposed to the virus or not. That would empower each student to decide for themselves whether they were safe to mix with high risk family members over Christmas or whether they should keep away from them.


----------



## bitsandbobs (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Whitty not Whitton. Bit of attention to detail, please!
> 
> They're probably a bit busy but I expect they may publish later. Whitty has quite some publication history on other diseases, especially malaria.
> 
> ...



It wasn't intended as a slur, although it was a throw-away remark. Perhaps not well put, but the post I was replying to seemed to suggest we shouldn't take into account views of those who haven't published on COVID. That seems implausible in the context of a disease which has been known for less than a year. None of which is to say that Mike Yeadon (ex-CEO of Pfizer) has anything interesting to say about COVID! 

Not that it's especially relevant, but I'm reasonably familiar with Vallance' research career prior to his move GSK and did some work for him (related to his research) when he was still at UCL. He'd previously worked with Salvador Moncada who infamously got stiffed out of a Lasker and a Nobel.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> No, that's the whole point. All the students need to catch the virus as soon as possible, so that by the time they break up for Christmas, they will have already had it and be clear of it. All the attempts to prevent it spreading in places like universities is doing is meaning there will be more potentially infectious students around at the end of the term. A concerted "catch the virus now, and protect your granny for Christmas" campaign could go a long way to neutralising the threat to elderly family members.


Ah, a campaign of deliberate infection whether the subjects are consenting or not! It might qualify you for a Mengele medal but I'm not sure ethics is your strongest suit.


----------



## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You're still working under the premis that it's actually desirable to identify and try to isolate university infections. But what's the point? The vast majority of the student population are at very low risk from the virus, so why bother even testing them at the point of infection? A more rational approach would be to make no attempt whatsoever to prevent the virus spreading within university accommodation, then give all the students antibody tests just before the end of term so they would know if they had already been exposed to the virus or not. That would empower each student to decide for themselves whether they were safe to mix with high risk family members over Christmas or whether they should keep away from them.



Whether you let it rip through or try and surpress it it's useful to have mass testing and what's going on. The antibody test may only pick up around half of people who've had the virus and those who are asymptomatic tend to have lower antibody levels.

I do think it's a double standard though letting antibody tests be available for taxi drivers, pharmacists and cleaners and not say uni students in halls. The likelyhood is by the end of term many will have never had a test, or if they did have a PCR test it was around now, so they won't know whether they've had the virus between now and the end of term (and an antibody test may not even pick it up if they had it in september or a small response).


----------



## PK99 (9 Oct 2020)

All uphill said:


> There a few people I know who are very strong on* "Blitz spirit" and "pulling together for Great Britain"* who just can't quite wear a mask, stay away from the pub or be considerate of more vulnerable people.



Dammit man, I have a right to enjoy starlight - I'm leaving my curtains open!


----------



## nickyboy (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> But they'll kill their teachers and the researchers and techs and other academic workers sooner - but that's OK because "people have had enough of experts" and it's not like we need research labs to develop treatments, preventatives or vaccines


That's easily fixed. You keep the study aspect of university life online and let the students mix amongst themselves as much as they like. Skipdriver is right on this matter. Let the virus rip through the student population. There will be virtually zero hospitalisations as a result. Let them all catch it and develop some element of immunity before it's time to return to families in December
The alternative is that you try to isolate and lock down infectious students and conduct compulsory mass testing before they return to families in December. The problem is that most students live in private rental housing and university has no control over the students here. So it won't work. It's this methodology that kills Nan after Xmas Day, not what Skipdriver is suggesting


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

All uphill said:


> There a few people I know who are very strong on "Blitz spirit" and "pulling together for Great Britain" who just can't quite wear a mask, stay away from the pub or be considerate of more vulnerable people.



It is worth noting that Covid has already killed more people than the blitz did.


----------



## nickyboy (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> You're still working under the premis that it's actually desirable to identify and try to isolate university infections. But what's the point? The vast majority of the student population are at very low risk from the virus, so why bother even testing them at the point of infection? A more rational approach would be to make no attempt whatsoever to prevent the virus spreading within university accommodation, then give all the students antibody tests just before the end of term so they would know if they had already been exposed to the virus or not. That would empower each student to decide for themselves whether they were safe to mix with high risk family members over Christmas or whether they should keep away from them.


As I posted elsewhere, US study of college students found that 70,000 infections resulted in 3 hospitalisations and zero deaths


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## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

Most students living in private rental accomodation was always the problem with this and at the start of term.

However, if an attempt was made to offer tests at the end of term to all students, I think takeup would be decent. It's easily forgotten that many tests have been bunged to groups of the population that are more valuable politically than students, alongside those that have had it for medical need or might be wise to.


----------



## PK99 (9 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> TBH following the advice hasn't really made much of a difference to my life. Pubs have been shite since the smoking ban and the 'opinion poll' 4 years ago made them worse, Restuarants well I can cook better food at home than the microwaved pap they sell, I could go on but I won't. You go on about _people's right to go about their business as they see fit _well my rights to live in other countries has been forcibly removed as has my 'right' to smoke wherever I like.



You drink in the wrong pubs and eat in the wrong restaurants.

Pubs are lightyears better since the smoking ban and the quality of restaurant food is often outstanding.

Your right to smoke wherever you like.


----------



## classic33 (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Trying to intervene in the virus pandemic is just making things worse if anything. If we had not had a lockdown earlier in the year there would have been a lot more cases during the summer and quite possibly lower levels of transmission going towards the winter.
> Trying to prevent an infectious disease transmitting is futile, as the current situation shows. There are going to be a global total of X number of cases of the coronavirus no matter what, and trying to squeeze down the numbers earlier in the year has simply delayed the virus by a few months, but with huge collateral damage.
> If you look at cases in those countries where the lockdown measures were only half-hearted, cases peaked and are now just rumbling along at a roughly constant rate - a "controlled burn". The countries that tried early on to have strict lockdown measures in many cases are the ones who are now experiencing the worst of the second waves.
> There is a natural limit to the rate at which the virus can transmit, which is due to a mixture of the amount of *population immunity *and the degree of social interaction.
> On the current case numbers, the virus is spreading faster per head of population in the UK than it is in either the USA or Brazil, despite how critics have enjoyed slating those two countries response. They have levelled off whilst we are now going through the roof.


You keep on going on about immunity to this, but how do you know there is any when the experts are uncertain on the matter.


----------



## raleighnut (9 Oct 2020)

PK99 said:


> You drink in the wrong pubs and eat in the wrong restaurants.
> 
> Pubs are lightyears better since the smoking ban and the quality of restaurant food is often outstanding.
> 
> Your right to smoke wherever you like.


Well I don't drive but I'm forced to breathe in exhaust fumes when I'm on the bike.


----------



## Rezillo (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> What's an AFI in this context?



A typo by me!


----------



## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

The Cycling Podcast: 117: Life in the Peloton – Mitch Docker's Tour de France Q&A 
View: https://audioboom.com/posts/7678586
covers whether idiots ignoring the restrictions mean we should give up trying to control the virus at [00:45:59]


----------



## tom73 (9 Oct 2020)

Hospitalisations from the current university outbreaks are being reported some critically so.
Like it or not Universities have a duty of care and many look to be clearly lacking any. It was wholly predicable that allowing mass movement from across the county and stick them in uni accommodation. Which at best is a shoe box room and shared social areas that at best are just about socially clean. Was not going to be a problem is mad as is the idea that some how it's ok to use them as some large scale lab experiment. Most may well be ok we just don't know equally we just don't know what the long term effects of even a mild infection is.

Plenty is now out and main stream about the effects of long covid. It can't just be laughed off anymore. They also have a duty of care to local people who live near by many are based in areas of already over crowded poor housing. Which are hot beds of poor health long before covid they also have a duty to ensure local primary health care don't get over whelmed by localised outbreaks. Relaying on GP's and public health to pick up this mess is pretty piss poor. That's before we even start on protecting the staff. 

Did each university carry out student by student covid risk assessment? Lowered student numbers per house block ? Had a plan in place for testing or an idea of how to get some pretty quick? they had plenty of time to see the government was never going to do it.
A plan how to use any data in ways past total numbers but room, by room, block by block, case by case.
Provided extra funding and staff for on campus health care and mental health services ?
To say they are centres of learning they don't look have even started doing anything sort of research into how outbreaks behave on campus. Or how to manage them on and off campus.

So let's face it allowing them back on mass has nothing to do with academic quality. It's totally about money they've taken it so now they need to spend it and live up to the all the marketing and show they care.


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## RoadRider400 (9 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And go home to kill nan for Christmas...


In fairness John raises a good point. You have a lot of very young people in nearby proximity who are highly unlikely to get seriously ill. Get them all together parting and they will all have a few months worth of antibodies mean when they see nan for Christmas they will not make her ill. Rather than try and isolate them into their rooms and allow it to spread slowly. If there is no vaccine on the horizon this is _exactly_ the thing we need to be doing. Getting herd immunity through the young and fit. University halls are the perfect petri dishes.
Brilliantly simplistic. Brilliant.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (9 Oct 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> In fairness John raises a good point. You have a lot of very young people in nearby proximity who are highly unlikely to get seriously ill. Get them all together parting and they will all have a few months worth of antibodies mean when they see nan for Christmas they will not make her ill. Rather than try and isolate them into their rooms and allow it to spread slowly. If there is no vaccine on the horizon this is _exactly_ the thing we need to be doing. Getting herd immunity through the young and fit. University halls are the perfect petri dishes.
> Brilliantly simplistic. Brilliant.


Do you mean simplistic or simple?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Oct 2020)

Indeed and there’s no plan to vaccinate under 50s in first wave of any vaccine unless they are known to be in a vulnerable group. So in that scenario the plan would be to let it spread through younger people anyway because of the much lower risk of becoming seriously ill.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

Cases straight back down to 13,900 today, so good news assuming they're reliable (given last weeks farkup and the large daily change).


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## deptfordmarmoset (9 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Cases straight back down to 13,900 today, so good news assuming they're reliable (given last weeks farkup and the large daily change).


Today's Covid Symptom survey estimate of active cases in Lewisham has just been posted.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Today's Covid Symptom survey estimate of active cases in Lewisham has just been posted.
> View attachment 551405



TBF I don't think Lewisham is entirely representative of the country as a whole...


----------



## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Indeed and there’s no plan to vaccinate under 50s in first wave of any vaccine unless they are known to be in a vulnerable group. [...]


Please can you tell us where you read the plan?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Please can you tell us where you read the plan?



Its been all over the news, do pay attention 😂


----------



## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Please can you tell us where you read the plan?



A comment by Kate Bingham. Which has got rowed back by Matt Hancock and qualified by DoH IF, IF it works well in the very high age groups (which it may not).


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (9 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> TBF I don't think Lewisham is entirely representative of the country as a whole...


Of course not. It's indicative though of a state of affairs. Doubling within a week, as it is nationwide.


----------



## classic33 (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> It's the people like you who want to disrupt daily life that are making it last much longer than it needs to. No-one can stop the virus, so we might as well let it run and get it over and done with, then normality can return ASAP.
> Do you want _years_ of worsening economic damage, business failures, millions more job losses, and long-term interference in people's right to go about their business as they see fit?


If they shut the pubs your interest in economic damage will be over. Basing this on your sole "economic activity" interests" to date.

I've said this before, I just want to get back to normal. Whilst well aware that what constitutes "normal" after this ain't gonna be like it was before. 

You want to let it run it's course, but have no idea what that course may be. This in order to allow you your "economic activity". What do you think those of us, following the rules, have been living off, not so fresh air! We've had to pay for what we've used.

I want to run my life as I see fit, but the longer the rules are broken, the longer this will continue. Think of it as being kept in as a class at school, because of the actions of a minority. Each time there's a chance of getting out, someone does something to prolong it further, for everyone.


----------



## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

nickyboy said:


> That's easily fixed. You keep the study aspect of university life online and let the students mix amongst themselves as much as they like. Skipdriver is right on this matter. Let the virus rip through the student population. There will be virtually zero hospitalisations as a result. Let them all catch it and develop some element of immunity before it's time to return to families in December


As you put it yourself later in your post:


> The problem is that most students live in private rental housing and university has no control over the students here. So it won't work.


Why doesn't that make the student-sacrifice plan impossible too?

Even if they are in uni-controlled housing, they're not prisoners and some will get out - and then there's all the food and services that have to be delivered. 

Far from it being easily fixed, we can't completely isolate students from the "gown towns" hosting them. We can't even isolate them from their universities because some courses have essential lab or practical work that will put them in contact with Teaching Assistants at least, so now you've got to confine TAs and they're not as young as the students, so there will be a death toll, probably including many of our country's future researchers and lecturers.

And then you've got the problem of what happens when December 21st arrives and students want to go home as promised in return for this crazy plan but you've still got half of them testing antibody-negative in some unis?

And then you've got the problem of natural immunity maybe not lasting more than a couple of months, so do you have to do this all again next term? And the term after that? And next year? How long will it be before the "virtually zero" death toll doesn't look so zero? Do we know much about reinfection survival yet? And how many would suffer long-covid symptoms?

How is all this "easily fixed"?

It looks like a hell of a gamble compared to following WHO advice for a change: test, test, test, distance, mask and wash.


----------



## MarkF (9 Oct 2020)




----------



## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

Most of the examples I have heard of people having to isolate twice are students. It will be 3rd 4th and 5th times by the end of the year.

Again it's a double standard by the super rich of the UK who had to isolate for 7 days in March or haven't had to in their large homes with spacious work from home arrangements.


----------



## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Its been all over the news, do pay attention 😂


I didn't notice it. Only a load of loose talk. Should be easy enough for you to post a link, if the plan has been published...


----------



## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> View attachment 551412


I think it's widely-known that case confirmations are higher partly because of more testing, so what you're seeing there isn't that there are more cases now, but just that cases were unreported during the first wave.

Hospitalisations aren't affected by more testing, though:


----------



## classic33 (9 Oct 2020)

Locally, cases doubled in the last 24 hours. At least two households, with 4 positive cases between them.

The adults did enjoy their "economic activity", even going into each others houses to enjoy it. For one household, it's the second time in two months. The last time they self isolated by going on holiday for 12 days.

One of the positives however isn't yet in double figures age wise. How do you explain what they've now to do because the "responsible" adults in the house couldn't, and didn't behave.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> I didn't notice it. Only a load of loose talk. Should be easy enough for you to post a link, if the plan has been published...



I am sure you can check that yourself. It’s not hard.


----------



## mjr (9 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I am sure you can check that yourself. It’s not hard.


Well, it doesn't look to me like any plan has been published, so I conclude that you were selling turnips as lemons.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

Turnip meringue pie. Yum.


----------



## Rusty Nails (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Well, it doesn't look to me like any plan has been published, so I conclude that you were selling turnips as lemons.


That's commendably polite of you.


----------



## MarkF (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> I think it's widely-known that case confirmations are higher partly because of more testing, so what you're seeing there isn't that there are more cases now, but just that cases were unreported during the first wave.
> 
> Hospitalisations aren't affected by more testing, though:


But a "hospitalisation" can occur within hospital with patients admitted with something entirely unrelated. We are seeing a huge distortion of data. Death figures are much harder to manipulate of course.

As an aside, I am seeing totally different patients to spring and it's a positive. Generally, in spring it was 2 types, old/ill//frail what the hospital terms "end of days" patients and then younger but morbidly obese ones. What they often had in common was that they were struggling to breathe, they were in a bad way. Now the patients are younger, mobile and rarely even on oxygen, obesity is still an issue but you don't fear for them them like in springtime. I hope it continues like this through winter.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Well, it doesn't look to me like any plan has been published, so I conclude that you were selling turnips as lemons.



Well when the person responsible for uk vaccine rollout says the plan is x. It’s reasonable to assume that’s the plan. Or do you need everything in writing, in the belief that once written down, it can’t change?


----------



## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Far from it being easily fixed, we can't completely isolate students from the "gown towns" hosting them. We can't even isolate them from their universities because some courses have essential lab or practical work that will put them in contact with Teaching Assistants at least, so now you've got to confine TAs and they're not as young as the students, so there will be a death toll, probably including many of our country's future researchers and lecturers.
> 
> And then you've got the problem of natural immunity maybe not lasting more than a couple of months, so do you have to do this all again next term? And the term after that? And next year? How long will it be before the "virtually zero" death toll doesn't look so zero? Do we know much about reinfection survival yet? And how many would suffer long-covid symptoms?



It's about a third of the city centre here. 

The thing is if you're going to mess about like that, you might as well get some of them on the vaccination program. 

It's also misguided from the timings point of view. Although political noises have a lot to do with it it's believed 2 trials may have preliminary results in November. What happens if the results find that due to compromised immune systems and underlying conditions the first vaccine out has a problem and it might be better to vaccinate targeted places in the general population? You get hundreds of thousands of students infected, some have a rough time and some get so called long covid or are hospitalised and then find in 1-2 months that you want to give the vaccine to working age populations or maybe even students! Or even the second and third tranches of vaccine come along in the summer terms (if things run early) at uni and they are higher up the pecking order than some other groups. They've had the virus needlessly. These scenarios are not so far fetched as people think they are.


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## classic33 (9 Oct 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> In fairness John raises a good point. You have a lot of very young people in nearby proximity who are highly unlikely to get seriously ill. Get them all together parting and they will all have a few months worth of antibodies mean when they see nan for Christmas they will not make her ill. Rather than try and isolate them into their rooms and allow it to spread slowly. If there is no vaccine on the horizon this is _exactly_ the thing we need to be doing. Getting herd immunity through the young and fit. University halls are* the perfect petri dishes.*
> Brilliantly simplistic. Brilliant.


Wonder if those in them feel okay being part of an experiment. 
Worth remembering that not all petri dishes provide the expected results.


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## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Well when the person responsible for uk vaccine rollout says the plan is x. It’s reasonable to assume that’s the plan. Or do you need everything in writing, in the belief that once written down, it can’t change?



She was covering her back.

This was actually what JCVI said

Older adults resident in a care home and care home workers
All those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
All those 75 years of age and over
All those 70 years of age and over
All those 65 years of age and over
High-risk adults under 65 years of age
Moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
All those 60 years of age and over
All those 55 years of age and over
All those 50 years of age and over
Rest of the population (priority to be determined)
This assumed a moderate effectiveness in all age groups (which is quite theoretical with some of the vaccine types).


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## brodiej (9 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> View attachment 551412


Where is that graph from?

It's clearly wrong - it shows confirmed deaths as less than 100 even at the peak and vitually 0 now despite there being over a thousand a day at the peak and over 70 a day now with a clear uptick happening

Here is the latest Our World in Data graph of deaths
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...othing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc


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## pawl (9 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> You keep on going on about immunity to this, but how do you know there is any when the experts are uncertain on the matter.




He obviously has a crystal ball .Needs to check the input control or clean the glass because the input he is receiving sounds a load of crap.


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## tom73 (9 Oct 2020)

pawl said:


> He obviously has a crystal ball .Needs to check the input control or clean the glass because the input he is receiving sounds a load of crap.


That’s probably why it got throw in a skip.


----------



## DaveReading (9 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> View attachment 551412



What is that supposed to show ?


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## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

DaveReading said:


> What is that supposed to show ?



It's the virus crawling across your living room floor.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

So, just for @SkipdiverJohn here's a projection of what would happen if we let it rip from here. 







That's 200k deaths by Christmas, peaking at ~5k per day. The drop in R at about December is herd immunity starting to kick in.

Now, this won't be acceptable so people will shield themselves from the carnage and/or govt will make strong interventions to mitigate. Obviously track and trace would be entirely overwhelmed. 

Hopefully this informs why nobody in public health thinks this a good idea and why govt is prepared to do almost anything to avoid it. 

A little explanation here


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1314633560473710598


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## MarkF (9 Oct 2020)

Was always coming, the charade can carry on a while longer, Covid/Flu now.


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## MarkF (9 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So, just for @SkipdiverJohn here's a projection of what would happen if we let it rip from here.
> 
> View attachment 551444
> 
> ...




In spring, there was little preparation, scant treatment knowledge, hysteria, catastrophic mistakes and a large amount of "dry tinder" potential victims. With what we know now and how things have changed, really, there would be 200k deaths by Christmas? Not remotely credible.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (9 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> That's 200k deaths by Christmas, peaking at ~5k per day. The drop in R at about December is herd immunity starting to kick in.



Those charts are nothing more than scaremongering nonsense drawn up by number crunching geeks. The actual, real-world reality simply doesn't bear out any of this fantasy.
Despite the official positive test numbers being way higher than those back in March/April, hospitalisations and deaths are only a small fraction of those six months ago.
Take those countries with large outbreaks and roughly comparable living standards:- The USA has a population five times that of the UK, similar living standards, similar demographics, and a similar level of medical expertise. At it's worst, the virus was taking out around 2,000 people a day. Now, it's what, around 7-800 deaths a day, with around 40,000 reported cases a day? Brazil was previously highlighted in this thread. They are running around 600 deaths a day on a population of around 210 million. and Brazil has a lower per capita GDP than the UK, less developed healthcare overall, and a substantial population of shanty town slum dwellers. If you assume their outbreak and death toll is worse because of this, if you downscale Brazil to the UK's population size you would be looking at a worse case scenario of well under 200 deaths a day going forward.
Indulging in blatant scaremongering achieves nothing. What is patently clear is that the worst of the doom & gloom predictions simply haven't come to pass, and as the virus progresses through the populace, then the hospitalisations and deaths can only go one way - downwards for the simple reason the virus has an ever-diminishing number of potential targets it can afflict.


----------



## nickyboy (9 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> As you put it yourself later in your post:
> 
> Why doesn't that make the student-sacrifice plan impossible too?
> 
> ...


Small choice of rotten apples innit

My proposal, whilst not ideal is somewhat less hopeless than the suggestion of testing, tracking, tracing etc in an environment like Selly Oak. The cat's out of the bag and, like it or not, loads of students are going to get infected. The only question that should be exercising our thoughts is whether it's better to try to contain it or to let it run through the whole cohort ASAP. 

Your think it's containment and I think you're wrong. Simple as that. Not because containment is a bad strategy. Just that the ship has sailed. Son #2 is in Selly and it's rampant in the private student accommodation there. It's too late to try to close the door


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Those charts are nothing more than scaremongering nonsense drawn up by number crunching geeks. The actual, real-world reality simply doesn't bear out any of this fantasy.
> Despite the official positive test numbers being way higher than those back in March/April, hospitalisations and deaths are only a small fraction of those six months ago.
> Take those countries with large outbreaks and roughly comparable living standards:- The USA has a population five times that of the UK, similar living standards, similar demographics, and a similar level of medical expertise. At it's worst, the virus was taking out around 2,000 people a day. Now, it's what, around 7-800 deaths a day, with around 40,000 reported cases a day? Brazil was previously highlighted in this thread. They are running around 600 deaths a day on a population of around 210 million. and Brazil has a lower per capita GDP than the UK, less developed healthcare overall, and a substantial population of shanty town slum dwellers. If you assume their outbreak and death toll is worse because of this, if you downscale Brazil to the UK's population size you would be looking at a worse case scenario of well under 200 deaths a day going forward.
> Indulging in blatant scaremongering achieves nothing. What is patently clear is that the worst of the doom & gloom predictions simply haven't come to pass, and as the virus progresses through the populace, then the hospitalisations and deaths can only go one way - downwards for the simple reason the virus has an ever-diminishing number of potential targets it can afflict.



This is what's known as denial. When facts are simply too difficult to confront. 

The virus has already killed nigh on 60,000 with no evidence of herd immunity. Yet you simply can't face the reality that unsuppressed, many more will die.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> In spring, there was little preparation, scant treatment knowledge, hysteria, catastrophic mistakes and a large amount of "dry tinder" potential victims. With what we know now and how things have changed, really, there would be 200k deaths by Christmas? Not remotely credible.



Please explain what would drive down R if we don't take action?


----------



## midlife (9 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> In spring, there was little preparation, scant treatment knowledge, hysteria, catastrophic mistakes and a large amount of "dry tinder" potential victims. With what we know now and how things have changed, really, there would be 200k deaths by Christmas? Not remotely credible.



Hospitals are starting to ration Covid treatment drugs at the moment, not sure how many hospital cases it would take to fill our hospitals again......


----------



## Rezillo (9 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Despite the official positive test numbers being way higher than those back in March/April, hospitalisations and deaths are only a small fraction of those six months ago.



Back in March/April, the only significant testing being carried out was for hospital admissions. The testing numbers now are for community and hospital admission infections - you are not comparing like with like. To be fair, virtually every covid graph in the papers at the moment shows one that has the hospital infection numbers at one end of the axis and "community included" infections at the other as if somehow they were a single data source.

No-one really knows what the community infection rate actually was in March and April because there wasn't even the capacity to test care home patients, let alone the general public, but there are estimates of a peak of around 80,000+ cases a day. It is going to be some weeks until we get to those levels but unless something happens to stop it, either voluntary or imposed behaviour changes, it is an inevitable consequence of exponential growth.

More info here:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219029/

When I last looked a while back, there were other estimates but they were all in the same zone.


----------



## classic33 (9 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Hospitals are starting to ration Covid treatment drugs at the moment, not sure how many hospital cases it would take to fill our hospitals again......


These are total beds available in local ICU's.
BRI has increased to 16 beds, 
Calderdale has 6 beds, 
Huddersfield has 8.

Doesn't seem as though it'd take much to fill them.


----------



## marinyork (9 Oct 2020)

Rezillo said:


> When I last looked a while back, there were other estimates but they were all in the same zone.



Ahem. Widely quoted as 100,000 a day. And if you have looked recently you'll be aware of much higher, the highest estimate I am aware of is 315,000 at the peak.

You are in a funny mood. I'm not sure why you thought live tv pictures of Italian tv required a fact check when millions of people around the world saw it live, including commentary as to where the convoy was!!!!


----------



## Rezillo (9 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Ahem. Widely quoted as 100,000 a day. And if you have looked recently you'll be aware of much higher, the highest estimate I am aware of is 315,000 at the peak.
> 
> You are in a funny mood. I'm not sure why you thought live tv pictures of Italian tv required a fact check when millions of people around the world saw it live, including commentary as to where the convoy was!!!!



Eh? I posted the Snopes link earlier because there were many fruitloop reports at the time claiming the convoy images were fake, so i thought I would stop any similar claims here when I referred to it as a consequence of health service collapse. What's the problem? 

And why does 80,000+ cases get criticised/corrected when the report link I gave has a median of 117,000? 80,000 was the lowest figure claimed that I knew of, hence 80,000+


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## tom73 (10 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Hospitals are starting to ration Covid treatment drugs at the moment, not sure how many hospital cases it would take to fill our hospitals again......


Less than many people think I'd love to know how the health service from primary care though to hospitals. 
Would work in this "golden" let covid get on with it world. Clearly they don't have a clue how it all works. 
If hospitals kept going some how primary care which is main part of health care would for sure collapse.


----------



## brodiej (10 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Those charts are nothing more than scaremongering nonsense drawn up by number crunching geeks. The actual, real-world reality simply doesn't bear out any of this fantasy.
> Despite the official positive test numbers being way higher than those back in March/April, hospitalisations and deaths are only a small fraction of those six months ago.



No they aren’t

[/




[/QUOTE]


----------



## tom73 (10 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> These are total beds available in local ICU's.
> BRI has increased to 16 beds,
> Calderdale has 6 beds,
> Huddersfield has 8.
> ...



That's plenty in the covid left to it "golden age". Remember all the old locked down , care homes locked down, group homes locked downed, All at "risk" groups locked down. They only get really sick remember everyone else just has a bad cold so won't need them. Anyway they won't be use as most staff will be off on sick with the bad cold. So either way they'd not be in use so won't fill up and problem solved.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (10 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This is what's known as denial. When facts are simply too difficult to confront.
> 
> The virus has already killed nigh on 60,000 with no evidence of herd immunity. Yet you simply can't face the reality that unsuppressed, many more will die.



I'm not denying anything. The virus is real, to some people it is deadly, and globally it has in reality already taken out several million people, way more than any official figures - and will continue to take out many more millions before its over and done with.
Attempting to generally suppress the virus will not save any lives overall. Deaths will still occur, but over an extended period and additionally from other medical conditions left untreated because all the focus is currently on the virus. 
There is no magical "get out of jail free card" with coronavirus. There's no vaccine, even if there was one it might not be that effective either, and you also have the logistical problem of actually getting a good proportion of the population vaccinated. A substantial minority won't accept the vaccine, so what do you do then? Unless you allow people to become infected rather than try to suppress it, the coronavirus is going to circulate for years at some level and it could well mutate significantly over that time, which will cause another big problem. It needs to progress swiftly, and burn itself out as soon as possible.


----------



## Milzy (10 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Please explain what would drive down R if we don't take action?


We need to keep the R held Steady for herd immunity, without over running hospitals. Or play cat and mouse with it for 10 years or more.


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## SkipdiverJohn (10 Oct 2020)

Milzy said:


> We need to keep the R held Steady for herd immunity, without over running hospitals. Or play cat and mouse with it for 10 years or more.



Exactly. Every infection case now is one less person you need to try to get vaccinated at a later date. Given the logistics and the size of populations, it makes more sense to try to target vaccination at the high risk end of the spectrum and let everyone else gain immunity from having been infected. Even delivering the winter Flu vaccine to a limited group of people in the UK proves quite a challenge every year. Does anyone seriously believe it's possible to deliver several times as many coronavirus vaccinations on top?


----------



## vickster (10 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Exactly. Every infection case now is one less person you need to try to get vaccinated at a later date.


How so? Do you have actual scientific validated data to show infection confers (long term) immunity? (Not sure you can as the virus has only been in existence for a year if that).
Or could this be an unsubstantiated assumption on your part (which you regularly trot out)?


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (10 Oct 2020)

No-one knows how long immunity will be effective for, but that applies to both viruses and vaccines alike. The difference is no vaccine immunity is currently available, whereas infection immunity is. It's not a perfect world, and we don't have the luxury of that choice if we want to eradicate the virus quickly. It's infection or nothing.


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## marinyork (10 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Exactly. Every infection case now is one less person you need to try to get vaccinated at a later date. Given the logistics and the size of populations, it makes more sense to try to target vaccination at the high risk end of the spectrum and let everyone else gain immunity from having been infected. Even delivering the winter Flu vaccine to a limited group of people in the UK proves quite a challenge every year. Does anyone seriously believe it's possible to deliver several times as many coronavirus vaccinations on top?



I think it'd take about a year and a half to get it to the a very high percentage of the people over 11.

The government's strategy is what you are saying. Then wait and see. If it spectacularly didn't work having vaccinated 30 million people and there was a 3rd 4th and 5th smaller wave or other very long health like long covid doing even more damage than known now they might vaccinate another 25 million if very safe.

Kate Bingham did say words to this effect that if the vaccine was 95% effective and safe they might do then rest later. It's likely very unrealistic numbers.


----------



## tom73 (10 Oct 2020)

Milzy said:


> We need to keep the R held Steady for herd immunity, without over running hospitals. Or play cat and mouse with it for 10 years or more.


How do you that then ? with no interventions other than lock anyone at risk away? 
As testing would have totally broken down by long before you'd have chance to work it out. 
As R is not a daily figure anything you do takes week's to filter though. 
It takes around 10 days before any case get's to hospital admission and days or week or so before they get critical. 
How do you plan capacity if you can't possibly know what case numbers are likely to be ?
With no interventions primary care would have fell over long before that point anyway. So we'd have no health service to get over ran in the first place.


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## SkipdiverJohn (10 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> How do you plan capacity if you can't possibly know what case numbers are likely to be ?.



We've got the numbers of hospitalisations from early on in the outbreak, and various people have been trying to make educated guesses as to what the true number of daily infections really were at that time. The multiple between true and tested positive infections is going to be much smaller now with widespread testing than it was six months ago. The potential for future cases is constantly declining anyway, due to previous infections. If, say, 25% of the population has already had the virus then the worst case scenario is only 75% of what it was at the beginning of the epidemic and that potential number is falling by whatever the real daily infection rate is.


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## classic33 (10 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Exactly. Every infection case now is one less person you need to try to get vaccinated at a later date. Given the logistics and the size of populations, it makes more sense to try to target vaccination at the high risk end of the spectrum and let everyone else gain immunity from having been infected. Even delivering the winter Flu vaccine to a limited group of people in the UK proves quite a challenge every year. Does anyone seriously believe it's possible to deliver several times as many coronavirus vaccinations on top?


Question!
I realise it's only what I've seen, but the same person has tested positive twice. Isolation for the second time.

Their job required a negative result before returning. 

How can they be positive again, if herd immunity/catching it once means you can't catch it a second time?


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## RoadRider400 (10 Oct 2020)

brodiej said:


> No they aren’t
> 
> [/
> View attachment 551487



How about posting data this plotted using a linear Y axis. The use of a logarithmic axis is fabulously misleading. Though I suspect thats the idea.


----------



## MarkF (10 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Hospitals are starting to ration Covid treatment drugs at the moment, not sure how many hospital cases it would take to fill our hospitals again......



Well the Guardian will probably tell you the NHS will be overwhelmed by teatime. In reality the worst hit area, the North, has a Covid occupancy of 3-4%, this in hopitals that have been preparing for months and currently have huge vacant/dormant/prepared capacity. A panic stricken NHS coped at the virus peak, with huge amounts of staff covid-absent, why shouldn't it cope this winter? We are in another hysterical fear mongering mood, just like spring, it gets to me and I have to get comfort from the scientits who called it right since March. Are we to make the same mistakes again?

We can no more stop the spread of the virus in the vulnerable areas, care homes and hospitals, than we can flu. I've seen so many infection control measures put in place in good faith and for solid reasons, but still it spreads and that's where the deaths will be this winter, care homes and hospitals, next year too and the year after.....lockdown?

I see the government is (hopefully) not going to lockdown again, good, because they don't work, they know they are going to have to live/work with it, it's now the start of a long and protracted career protecting reversal. If you were to be presented with country graphs from all around the world, showing infections, hospitalistaions and deaths for 2020, then asked to mark where lockdown was introduced, you'd be stumped. There is nothing to go on, no event, no indicator, you'd be guessing as much as a blind man pinning a tail on a donkey.

WHO:- _"We really do appeal to all world leaders:stop using lockdown as your primary control m_e_thod" _

The government is happy with a ridiculously flawed testing system. It can then manipulate and produce the figures and headlines however it likes, how else can you expain the 1000's of perfectly healthy Northern uni/college kids being used to produce policy? These asymptomatic or false postive kids are at the start of term and have practically no consequence for the rest of society.

I see that the government failed to produce any scientific evidence for it's recent measures by the Friday deadline, how could it? Into court, 15th October, now that will be interesting, they cannot lie & bluff there.

As ever, I am not a virus denier, conspiracy theorist nor re-set believer, it is an almighty cock up though.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (10 Oct 2020)

brodiej said:


> No they aren’t
> 
> [/
> View attachment 551487


[/QUOTE]

Current NHS bed occupation level in England is around 3000 cases (Gov' dashboard) which does broadly equate to the occupation level up to around March 23/24.

This rapidly rose to around 11000 by April 1 and peaked at around 17000 by April 12 followed by what looks like an accelerating decline thereafter to a low of 4-500 by late August.

Will be pertinent to see if this wave follows the same trend or not.


----------



## tom73 (10 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> We've got the numbers of hospitalisations from early on in the outbreak, and various people have been trying to make educated guesses as to what the true number of daily infections really were at that time. The multiple between true and tested positive infections is going to be much smaller now with widespread testing than it was six months ago. The potential for future cases is constantly declining anyway, due to previous infections. If, say, 25% of the population has already had the virus then the worst case scenario is only 75% of what it was at the beginning of the epidemic and that potential number is falling by whatever the real daily infection rate is.



Where do you get the extra capacity without removing day to day operational capacity ? Capacity go's way past just a bed how do intend to get the extra hospitalisations to hospital in the first place ? Have fully man front-line ambulances sat waiting ? Or use the small number we have to do that and everything else at the same time ? Or have volunteers like me manning them 24/7 ? All you'd need is a local critical incident and it all come's failing down. We don't have mass numbers of NHS staff sat waiting for stuff to happen or whole hospitals sat waiting to go. Even the nightingales hospitals turned out to mostly empty with staff and equipment down to local hospitals to find. 
So tell me how do you run the day to day health service as normal with covid all around and still provide full covid care on top? 
Just how is primary care going to work dealing with large numbers of covid cases that at any point may become critical ? 
Just how is primary care going to do the day to day stuff without limiting it's capacity ? 
Do with set up nightingale health centres ?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (10 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Well the Guardian will probably tell you the NHS will be overwhelmed by teatime. *In reality the worst hit area, the North, has a Covid occupancy of 3-4%,* this in hopitals that have been preparing for months and currently have huge vacant/dormant/prepared capacity. A panic stricken NHS coped at the virus peak, with huge amounts of staff covid-absent, why shouldn't it cope this winter? *We are in another hysterical fear mongering mood, *just like spring, it gets to me and I have to get comfort from the scientits who called it right since March. Are we to make the same mistakes again?



More or less the rate over England as a whole with c3000 beds occupied by Covid patients out of a total capacity of NHS beds of c100000.

AFAIK the Nightingales could still be used (can someone please correct me if this is wrong) - although, in view of the minimal use they had back earlier in the year my hunch is that the NHS will cope just fine with this wave.

Re fear-mongering. The press love it (bad news) as 'If it bleeds it leads' to use the popular US press editorial maxim. Ditto Social media. There's a world of difference between sensible well thought out risk advice and needless panic inducing dialogue - with much of the latter being politically motivated whether the source is the Fourth Estate or Social Media.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (10 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Where do you get the extra capacity without removing day to day operational capacity ? Capacity go's way past just a bed how do intend to get the extra hospitalisations to hospital in the first place ? Have fully man front-line ambulances sat waiting ? Or use the small number we have to do that and everything else at the same time ? Or have volunteers like me manning them 24/7 ? All you'd need is a local critical incident and it all come's failing down. We don't have mass numbers of NHS staff sat waiting for stuff to happen or whole hospitals sat waiting to go. Even the nightingales hospitals turned out to mostly empty with staff and equipment down to local hospitals to find.
> *So tell me how do you run the day to day health service as normal with covid all around and still provide full covid care on top?
> Just how is primary care going to work dealing with large numbers of covid cases that at any point may become critical ?
> Just how is primary care going to do the day to day stuff without limiting it's capacity ? *
> Do with set up nightingale health centres ?



I think that's a fair point (bolded) but not the primary point in this discussion.

As you are more aware than most, care priorities shift over time and here we are talking about the Covid response. The NHS coped with the caseload back in March/April/May etc and will almost certainly cope again imo should case numbers rise to similar levels - although I'm not currently convinced they will.

Primary care re 'normal' demand is unfortunately suffering but right now what can we realistically do about that?


----------



## pawl (10 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Question!
> I realise it's only what I've seen, but the same person has tested positive twice. Isolation for the second time.
> 
> Their job required a negative result before returning.
> ...




perhaps he should set himself up as test case.

Infect him see if he recovers should he survive.
Leave him the herd
Check for reinfection
Check for long COVID which appears to becoming more prevalent 
Death

I will not put myself in a situation where I consider myself at risk.I look at the number of deaths 40000 plus that equates to a football stadium full of people.

He will then perhaps have the answers he feels so confident he proposes.


----------



## classic33 (10 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think that's a fair point (bolded) but not the primary point in this discussion.
> 
> As you are more aware than most, care priorities shift over time and here we are talking about the Covid response. The NHS coped with the caseload back in March/April/May etc and will almost certainly cope again imo should case numbers rise to similar levels - although I'm not currently convinced they will.
> 
> Primary care re 'normal' demand is unfortunately suffering but right now what can we realistically do about that?


Speaking as one who has been "left to their own devices" since March, on three conditions, because of this. Routine appointments stopped and placed under control of my GP(Last seen on the 17th March). And they're not seeing patients for the foreseeable future. What do I do?

The system coped last time because cuts were made elsewhere. Can they manage it again, without affecting/impacting upon routine treatment for longterm health issues. With the best will in the world, I doubt they'll manage.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (10 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Where do you get the extra capacity without removing day to day operational capacity ? Capacity go's way past just a bed how do intend to get the extra hospitalisations to hospital in the first place ? Have fully man front-line ambulances sat waiting ? Or use the small number we have to do that and everything else at the same time ?



The virus has increased the NHS workload, and until it's no longer around in significant amounts that is going to be the situation. Capacity is finite, so the simple answer is you stop doing the nice to have stuff and concentrate on the serious conditions that might potentially kill someone. 
The health system just about managed to deal with the hospitalisation situation back in April, even if it was a close call. Having had six months of practical experience of the virus and the time to organise things better, they should cope with anything it can throw at the system now.
The workload is also going to depend on who is getting infected. A uni full of students is going to make a negligible difference, and this is where the effort should be focussed. Let the healthy population go around just as normal and catch the virus unimpeded. Try to keep the highest risk people away from it as much as possible. People who know they are high risk are now generally wary of excessive social mixing anyway, so to an extent the self-behaviour of high risk persons will help limit how bad it could get. 
If you look at deaths vs infections for pretty much any country, you will see that confirmed infections are not translating pro-rata into hospital cases or fatalities in the same way they were at the start.


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## Joey Shabadoo (10 Oct 2020)

What virus?

View: https://twitter.com/NicosBarGlasgow/status/1314479777533833219


Meanwhile, this lot can't see a connection either -


View: https://twitter.com/kevinnjackson/status/1314631118319243265


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## glasgowcyclist (10 Oct 2020)

Does immunity from the effects of Covid also confer immunity from being a vector of transmission?


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## SpokeyDokey (10 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Speaking as one who has been "left to their own devices" since March, on three conditions, because of this. Routine appointments stopped and placed under control of my GP(Last seen on the 17th March). And they're not seeing patients for the foreseeable future. What do I do?
> 
> The system coped last time because cuts were made elsewhere. Can they manage it again, without affecting/impacting upon routine treatment for longterm health issues. With the best will in the world, I doubt they'll manage.



I sympathise with you but the NHS is not infinitely elastic and as I said priorities are fluid and at some level the decision(s) are made based on the greater need across the nation on a broad brush stroke basis.

Maybe, during this upturn in cases, the experiences of the initial onset may well leave the NHS better equipped to deal with non-Covid ailments?


----------



## Rusty Nails (10 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think that's a fair point (bolded) but not the primary point in this discussion.
> 
> As you are more aware than most, care priorities shift over time and here we are talking about the Covid response. The NHS coped with the caseload back in March/April/May etc and will almost certainly cope again imo should case numbers rise to similar levels - although I'm not currently convinced they will.
> 
> Primary care re 'normal' demand is unfortunately suffering but right now what can we realistically do about that?



If the NHS can only 'cope' with the virus by significantly reducing work on its other priorities, including a lot of very serious health issues such as cancer, then it is clearly not coping.

Priorities are not necessarily fluid but the response to them is, and often based on political opinions.

The problem I have with this thread is the opinions and ideas are usually based on a very little knowledge and some swatting up on Google, mine included along with everyone else.


----------



## tom73 (10 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think that's a fair point (bolded) but not the primary point in this discussion.
> 
> As you are more aware than most, care priorities shift over time and here we are talking about the Covid response. The NHS coped with the caseload back in March/April/May etc and will almost certainly cope again imo should case numbers rise to similar levels - although I'm not currently convinced they will.
> 
> Primary care re 'normal' demand is unfortunately suffering but right now what can we realistically do about that?



They coped because they diverted much of the day to capacity and staff to do it. Also the controls in place held case numbers down the virus was not left to get with it. They also managed due to staff working flat out and quickly setting up and adapting to new way of delivering services. What many are looking to be allowed to happen is let the virus run and some how keep everything else going at the same time. Which simply won't work primary care is the primary point if we let things run more cases will have to be managed in the community to prevent them become hospital cases. Or from being critical hospital admissions add in the extra long covid cases which they will expected to manage on top. It's impossible to build the capacity to allow anything near normal service to run. The need for ever changing PPE each time and cleaning down alone takes a large part of the working day out of the system. Add in staff sickness and on and off staff isolations and you have even less of the working system. 

As to what to do about it realistically the only way is drive down covid numbers and drive them down hard. Until other interventions are available. But without a clear government plan that's not going to simple. It won't be fix by one thing over another but a mix of measures.
What we can't do is open everything up and pay lip service to measures and make a wish that it all work out. 
I think you see the point that normal levels of health care and covid response together is not possible. Equally understanding health care is complex. 

I'm pointing it out to some who believe the simple way out of this is let run and keep all the at risk out the way. At the same time believing that health service can just carry on as if nothing is happening. Because hospitals won't be full of critically ill covid cases.


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## tom73 (10 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The virus has increased the NHS workload, and until it's no longer around in significant amounts that is going to be the situation. Capacity is finite, so the simple answer is you stop doing the nice to have stuff and concentrate on the serious conditions that might potentially kill someone.
> The health system just about managed to deal with the hospitalisation situation back in April, even if it was a close call. Having had six months of practical experience of the virus and the time to organise things better, they should cope with anything it can throw at the system now.
> The workload is also going to depend on who is getting infected. A uni full of students is going to make a negligible difference, and this is where the effort should be focussed. Let the healthy population go around just as normal and catch the virus unimpeded. Try to keep the highest risk people away from it as much as possible. People who know they are high risk are now generally wary of excessive social mixing anyway, so to an extent the self-behaviour of high risk persons will help limit how bad it could get.
> If you look at deaths vs infections for pretty much any country, you will see that confirmed infections are not translating pro-rata into hospital cases or fatalities in the same way they were at the start.


What's the nice to have stuff and how do you know what will turn into serious conditions? I've treated many who are fine one minute then blue lighted to A and E the next. The only way to do things the way you see it is make mass wide clinical calls quickly deciding who can live and who can die purely based on worth to society. Allowing people to die who normally would survive. It's


----------



## PK99 (10 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> The problem I have with this thread is the opinions and ideas are usually based on a very little knowledge and some swatting up on Google, mine included along with everyone else.



Welcome to the Interweb!


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## roubaixtuesday (10 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I'm not denying anything



Yes you are, you're denying how many people would die a a result of your proposals. 

If you're proposing something which will kill a quarter of a million people, then justify it, don't deny it. 

The reason you don't, is that you can't.


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## roubaixtuesday (10 Oct 2020)

Milzy said:


> We need to keep the R held Steady for herd immunity, without over running hospitals. Or play cat and mouse with it for 10 years or more.



Please explain through what alchemy you will achieve this miraculous level of control.

And, given that the peak of deaths last time around was 1000 a day, and your "policy" would require that to go on for *5 years* you might wish to ponder the practicalities a little more seriously.

[Corrigendum: give years should be ten months. Mea culpa]


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## classic33 (10 Oct 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I'm not denying anything. The virus is real, to some people it is deadly, and globally it has in reality already taken out several million people, way more than any official figures - and will continue to take out many more millions before its over and done with.
> Attempting to generally suppress the virus will not save any lives overall. Deaths will still occur, but over an extended period and additionally from other medical conditions left untreated because all the focus is currently on the virus.
> *There is no magical "get out of jail free card" with coronavirus. *There's no vaccine, even if there was one it might not be that effective either, and you also have the logistical problem of actually getting a good proportion of the population vaccinated. A substantial minority won't accept the vaccine, so what do you do then? Unless you allow people to become infected rather than try to suppress it, the coronavirus is going to circulate for years at some level and it could well mutate significantly over that time, which will cause another big problem. It needs to progress swiftly, and burn itself out as soon as possible.


Does that include the "immunity from catching it a second time"?


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## marinyork (10 Oct 2020)

PK99 said:


> Welcome to the Interweb!



Welcome to the world of work and particularly the 'professions'.


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## tom73 (11 Oct 2020)

Student cases don't stay student cases


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## MarkF (11 Oct 2020)

Regaring prepared space and delayed treatment in spring time, many hospitals never used that additional space/capacity. There was huge spare capacity and large scale staff absenteeism, yet it coped.

It's important to note that "hospitalisations" with Covid actually include patients already in hospital but who contract it there, another manipulation of data. But that's not my point really, I've noticed a big difference between the stats showing this happening between the north and the south. Why should this be? I can see clearly how it happens but I thought it was unavoidable, maybe it isn't?

The current fix an youth (spurious) cases is not logical, it dwarfs the % (of ill/elderly) cases within hospitals, but it's the latter where the deaths will occur.


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## classic33 (11 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Regaring prepared space and delayed treatment in spring time, many hospitals never used that additional space/capacity. There was huge spare capacity and large scale staff absenteeism, yet it coped.
> 
> It's important to note that "hospitalisations" with Covid actually include patients already in hospital but who contract it there, another manipulation of data. But that's not my point really, I've noticed a big difference between the stats showing this happening between the north and the south. Why should this be? I can see clearly how it happens but I thought it was unavoidable, maybe it isn't?
> 
> The current fix an youth (spurious) cases is not logical, it dwarfs the % (of ill/elderly) cases within hospitals, but it's the latter where the deaths will occur.


Non-urgent operations were cancelled at BRI. How many of them freed up a bed and the staff required.

Slight manipulation of data.


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## Joey Shabadoo (11 Oct 2020)

View: https://streamable.com/oift4x


----------



## Low Gear Guy (11 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Student cases don't stay student cases
> View attachment 551720


That does not necessarily show the rise being led by the return to school in early September and universities going back at start of October. An increase in student cases would pass initially to workers in retail and then to their relatives with a time gap between the increases in different age groups. The above figures show a big rise in the over eighties from the end of August onwards. People eating out and travelling by plane to other countries is a more likely cause for the initial rise.


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## Edwardoka (11 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://streamable.com/oift4x



Everyone knows that when you have someone hooked behind you like that the correct move is a backslide pin: namely, lift them, bend forwards so that they slide down your back into a position where they're being pinned to the floor by their own centre of gravity.

It's possible I've watched too much wrestling.


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## tom73 (11 Oct 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> That does not necessarily show the rise being led by the return to school in early September and universities going back at start of October. An increase in student cases would pass initially to workers in retail and then to their relatives with a time gap between the increases in different age groups. The above figures show a big rise in the over eighties from the end of August onwards. People eating out and travelling by plane to other countries is a more likely cause for the initial rise.


Hard to say given the way the government put groups together. What it shows is any source of community transmission will not stay in one place but feeds though to other part of the population. So just letting it rip though student accommodation for example. Won't help everyone else. Or help bring things back under control as some think it will.


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## classic33 (11 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think that's a fair point (bolded) but not the primary point in this discussion.
> 
> As you are more aware than most, care priorities shift over time and here we are talking about the Covid response. The NHS coped with the caseload back in March/April/May etc and will almost certainly cope again imo should case numbers rise to similar levels - although I'm not currently convinced they will.
> 
> Primary care re 'normal' demand is unfortunately suffering but right now what can we realistically do about that?


The situation isn't the same now as it was in March-April. The reason being simple, there's been a glimpse of what might be possible. Even if it does come with preconditions attached, simple albeit not popular with everyone.

The "NHS Heroes" even got two minutes applause on one night of the week to show how much they were being appreciated. That appreciation of how they worked has gone. There's a minority, who having had a taste of what might be available/possible with no restrictions on their behaviour, don't want to give up what they have.

They want the high risk groups, sick and elderly, to be made to isolate/locked up. So that they can now carry on as they did before this started. 

Without the support the NHS had from the public in March-April, they can't hope to achieve the same level of response a second time around. The call for a return to "normality", the same as before all this started. The truth is, what ever "normality" comes along, it will never be the same as it was before. No matter how much folk insist it should. 

I've mentioned my situation, but for me there's one person I'd love to know how they are doing. Diagnosed with epilepsy in January this year, two seizures in December of last year. With tests started on finding the cause, and possible trigger(s) in January & February. Then this came along.

They'd been told the worse case possible, SUDEP, and their only experience of it was what had been seen on TV programs. The classic grand mal seizure. They'd to surrender their driving license, needed for work. So job security was a major concern for them. If like myself, they've found themselves with no routine medical tests done to find the cause. How have they managed over the last half year.


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## pawl (11 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> The situation isn't the same now as it was in March-April. The reason being simple, there's been a glimpse of what might be possible. Even if it does come with preconditions attached, simple albeit not popular with everyone.
> 
> The "NHS Heroes" even got two minutes applause on one night of the week to show how much they were being appreciated. That appreciation of how they worked has gone. There's a minority, who having had a taste of what might be available/possible with no restrictions on their behaviour, don't want to give up what they have.
> 
> ...





I didn’t want to put a like for your post as I didn’t feel it to be appropriate I do sympathise with your feelings having worked with people with epilepsy.Many people do not understand epilepsy As recently as the early -1980 it was considered to be a mental health problem rather than a neurological condition many patients.being incarcerated on acute psychiatric wards


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## classic33 (11 Oct 2020)

pawl said:


> I didn’t want to put a like for your post as I didn’t feel it to be appropriate I do sympathise with your feelings having worked with people with epilepsy.Many people do not understand epilepsy As recently as the early -1980 it was considered to be a mental health problem rather than a neurological condition many patients.being incarcerated on acute psychiatric wards


Born with it myself, but for someone to get told that they now "have it", then the last six months on top of it, can't have been easy. Especially if treatment was stopped for them.

Just been told that, then having treatment stopped so early can't have been easy. On top of the new diagnosis they'll have found themselves in the high risk group. Two unknowns to deal with.


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## tom73 (11 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> The situation isn't the same now as it was in March-April. The reason being simple, there's been a glimpse of what might be possible. Even if it does come with preconditions attached, simple albeit not popular with everyone.
> 
> The "NHS Heroes" even got two minutes applause on one night of the week to show how much they were being appreciated. That appreciation of how they worked has gone. There's a minority, who having had a taste of what might be available/possible with no restrictions on their behaviour, don't want to give up what they have.
> 
> ...



What’s also not going help this time is the government has made it clear they have to get back to normal and still deal with COVID. To push it home they’ve brought back the targets. If they don’t hit 80% pre lock down. By end of the month the massive fines kick in. It’s just madness it’s as if believe COVID has gone away and it has and problem solved. Until covid is at levels that’s are minimal easily to detect and knock back. Health service simply can’t do anything at high levels. Some services have and can change tack. Drive in blood test, lung function test are examples. Most more complex ones can’t to any thing like maximum.

Even if the system can keep going this time round many of the staff can’t.


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## DCLane (11 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Even if the system can keep going this time round many of the staff can’t.



Agreed. There's staff physical and mental fatigue which has set in. Leave carry-over is still there. It's unlikely that they can deliver in the same way as March/April.


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

BBC being naughty, bookending an item on breweries joining calls for a judicial review claiming no evidence the virus spreads at pubs with images like these of unmasked people hugging and singing - but is it fair?


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## fossyant (12 Oct 2020)

So, what's you opinions on the new level that may come in.

1. Pubs and restaurants closed
2. As above and gyms
3. As above, plus *local* 'essential' travel only, no overnights outside your home. 

I have a feeling No.3 will be it. Wonder how 'local' this will be. If 'council' boroughs, then could be tricky for me, as many others.


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## roubaixtuesday (12 Oct 2020)

.


fossyant said:


> So, what's you opinions on the new level that may come in.
> 
> 1. Pubs and restaurants closed
> 2. As above and gyms
> ...



I'm actually not particularly bothered what the precise rules will be.

More important is whether people follow either the new or existing rules, and whether our test, track and trace system works IMO.

What is absolutely criminal is that cases stopped dropping at the start of July, and have been rising consistently since the start of August. Since the start of September they've been doubling every ten days or so (note log scale, and 7 day averages)







How the yellow rubbery fark has it been allowed to come to pass that we dither for a week as to how to respond now, when this has been entirely predictable for weeks or even months? During that week of dithering, numbers will rise by a further 50-100%, and it will probably take a month of restrictions to get them back down again. Hospitals in some places are already close to limits. It's an unconscionable failure of governance. Has there really been no contingency planning? Because that's how it seems.


----------



## fossyant (12 Oct 2020)

Quite - they have dithered too long - We expected the rises in September, we're now mid October before action is taken. It's looking like travel restrictions will be in at the middle Tier, so that's everyone.


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

[Ministerial statements scheduled for 3.30pm](https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/document/41196/html)


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> How the yellow rubbery fark has it been allowed to come to pass that we dither for a week as to how to respond now, when this has been entirely predictable for weeks or even months? During that week of dithering, numbers will rise by a further 50-100%, and it will probably take a month of restrictions to get them back down again.


Worse than that dithering, it looks like the politics is limiting the science, with no sense that the restrictions will be what should work best: offer the best reductions in cases for the least economic damage. It looks more like clutching at whatever straws Dom and Dick will allow them. They need to do more at work (masks in shared indoor workspaces?) and education but it looks like it's been forbidden.


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## classic33 (12 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> So, what's you opinions on the new level that may come in.
> 
> 1. Pubs and restaurants closed
> 2. As above and gyms
> ...


3 may be local Wards or Constituencies.

The two local Constituencies have seperate rules at present.


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## DCLane (12 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> So, what's you opinions on the new level that may come in.
> 
> 1. Pubs and restaurants closed
> 2. As above and gyms
> ...



My view is that it'll be no. 3 as per Wales. And that it'll be applied much wider than we think: it'll scupper the national hillclimb we've entered plus track racing as well due to others' selfishness and stupidity. Where I live there's been large weddings and events happening regardless; only now it's come out who's been running them. As a result of this type of behaviour in Kirklees rates are rising.

I'm right on the edge of my council borough - I've got to travel one direction if this is brought in.

Personally I've no patience for anyone being stupid. We're not being harsh enough, and weren't originally. Me? If found not following guidelines in March I'd have put whoever it was into solitary, in a hotel room, for 28 days. No questions. And whoever they were with if they'd visited someone. No more transmissions because they couldn't: if they wouldn't behave the first time then they can keep this thing to themselves.


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## classic33 (12 Oct 2020)

DCLane said:


> My view is that it'll be no. 3 as per Wales. And that it'll be applied much wider than we think: it'll scupper the national hillclimb we've entered plus track racing as well due to others' selfishness and stupidity. Where I live there's been large weddings and events happening regardless; only now it's come out who's been running them. As a result of this type of behaviour in Kirklees rates are rising.
> 
> I'm right on the edge of my council borough - I've got to travel one direction if this is brought in.
> 
> Personally I've no patience for anyone being stupid. We're not being harsh enough, and weren't originally. Me? If found not following guidelines in March I'd have put whoever it was into solitary, in a hotel room, for 28 days. No questions. And whoever they were with if they'd visited someone. No more transmissions because they couldn't: if they wouldn't behave the first time then they can keep this thing to themselves.


Local TravelLodge was earmarked in April for isolation cases, should it be needed.

Never used though.


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## fossyant (12 Oct 2020)

DCLane said:


> My view is that it'll be no. 3 as per Wales. And that it'll be applied much wider than we think: it'll scupper the national hillclimb we've entered plus track racing as well due to others' selfishness and stupidity. Where I live there's been large weddings and events happening regardless; only now it's come out who's been running them. As a result of this type of behaviour in Kirklees rates are rising.
> 
> I'm right on the edge of my council borough - I've got to travel one direction if this is brought in.
> 
> Personally I've no patience for anyone being stupid. We're not being harsh enough, and weren't originally. Me? If found not following guidelines in March I'd have put whoever it was into solitary, in a hotel room, for 28 days. No questions. And whoever they were with if they'd visited someone. No more transmissions because they couldn't: if they wouldn't behave the first time then they can keep this thing to themselves.



My views are the same as yours. Looks out now, and the neighbour that doesn't follow any rules has a friend's car on the drive (I've seen the car regular). No household visiting here ! Neighbour at other end of the road seems to be having regular Friday evening 'hot tub parties' - looks like it's family, but they aren't all there in the week, and she is a local GP Practice Nurse FFS.


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## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> So, what's you opinions on the new level that may come in.
> 
> 1. Pubs and restaurants closed
> 2. As above and gyms
> ...



I'm less concerned what the rules will be than how you take the population with you and how long it will be.

I think there are three broad problems:-
1. How do you actually stop people mixing indoors unsafely in suffiently large numbers in whatever setting but especially the home.
2. "Local" is an arbitrary idea not relevant to people. People do not care about their neighbours or people in their locale and may be very resentful if one third or half of the country has far fewer restrictions. We actually saw significant evidence of this in other countries early on which may be why London was not shut down a week and a half earlier.
3. Open ended time restrictions that are not circuit breakers are very problematic especially a second time around. People are likely to follow things as things get bad maybe even before restrictions and after 3 or 4 weeks it'll start to go again.


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## deptfordmarmoset (12 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Worse than that dithering, it looks like the politics is limiting the science, with no sense that the restrictions will be what should work best: offer the best reductions in cases for the least economic damage. It looks more like clutching at whatever straws Dom and Dick will allow them. They need to do more at work (masks in shared indoor workspaces?) and education but it looks like it's been forbidden.


As in Dom, Dick and.....Tarry! It was less than a year ago that the public were being warned about dither and delay.


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

What ever happens every day any rise in cases numbers are feeding into already baked in hospital admissions and in turn sadly more deaths. 
The signs have been all round for weeks and warnings given that all is not looking good. Instead of dealing with what's coming. The old petty political games have played out on all sides at all levels. Even now metro mayors are too bothered about sulking off than facing hard facts. 
Without some real hard action and fast it will be soon game over. I fear what we will get is some half baked go at going something but more about play the popular game than real public health. It's time that public health at all levels set the rules, when to use them , took full control of testing and contact tracing. The time for political games is over it's time to let professions do the job pandemics don't play by political rules even now most look like they've not work that one out.


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## MarkF (12 Oct 2020)

The linear focus switch from deaths/spikes/second wave to "cases" is astonishing! Such is the scale of false positives, asymptomatic and past infections that UK "cases" are practically meaningless, especially as such a large % are collge/uni kids, but that's where the focus has shifted to for the doomsayers, because there's nothing much else. We know we are using a flawed system but it serves that purpose. The case farce is laid bare by the testing procedures in neighbouring Argentina and Uruguay, one has a severe "case" problem, one doesn't have one at all....you want "cases" in September? You'll get them every year, you want to scare people and keep the fear narrative going, then test students, easy peasy




Maybe the government is jealous of The Netherlands and is hoping to eventually produce an even more bonkers case/death graph?






Todays near useless restrictions won't make a jot of difference, just like the UK's lockdowns and daft illogical guidelines. I can go to multiple shops, the bank, the post office, the supermarket and the barbers but set foot over the threshold of a bar and I have to fill in a track and trace form? It's absolute nonsense. If you gave me lockdown that appeared to have a point, a step in a plan then I would not like it or agree with it, but I'd follow it, so although I disagree with @DCLane on the virus, I know exactly what he is alluding to....inner city Bradford is taking zero notice of any restrictions and never has done and it never will. Oliver Dowden's excrutiatingly poor performance on TV today shows the incompetence of this government, if he does't know the science behind the restrictions, who does? Well, it is just 4 days before they WILL have to show their science.... in court.

Good news.
John Loaniddis (Stanford Professor) who's been right since March downgrades the Covid IFR from 0.27% to 0.15-0.2%. 
The WHO now condems lockdowns, but they flip flopped on masks so might support them next week depending on $$$$'s.
Average age of Covid victim now 82.4 years of age, *older than average UK lifespan.*
The Great Barrington Declaration, much the embarrassment of The Guardian and Google, is now no longer censored on the net. 

The tide is turning.


----------



## SteveF (12 Oct 2020)

Interesting graphic if accurate...


View: https://twitter.com/justin_ales/status/1315370477666344960


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm less concerned what the rules will be than how you take the population with you and how long it will be.
> 
> I think there are three broad problems:-
> 1. How do you actually stop people mixing indoors unsafely in suffiently large numbers in whatever setting but especially the home.
> ...


That's the big question we lost most of the good will by opening up too quickly. Being too wooly with the measures needed and way too slow with the things you need in place before you can do anything. That's before you get to the total mess of any form of government measuring that's joined up. In many way the public have been sold pup it was never going to be as simple as it's been made out to be. In the begin the government was in saving it's own neck mode and the public wanted something to happen. From the start we got told if things get bad the government will pull things back the truth is it never did and that set things up nicely. For the now blame every one else game. It's no longer a national thing but it's ok round here so why can't I do things. It's "I don't care about down the road or streets away" It's a bit like when something bad happens and people go a TV saying "noting ever bad happens here" 
Leadership is more than talking action at the right time, at the right level even if it's not popular. People have to believe everyone is in it together. Sadly that's not happening look at New Zealand they did it not just because they did what was needed but the PM made every believe it was a national issue and everyone was in together.


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## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

Increasing deaths will follow soon enough, sadly.


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## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54504785

China doesn't mess about. Test a city of 9 million in 5 days based on a small number of cases.


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54504785
> 
> China doesn't mess about. Test a city of 9 million in 5 days based on a small number of cases.


Spotted that this morning and thought if only ....


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## MarkF (12 Oct 2020)

How are prisons managing this so well? Or is it lack of testing? I don't know but they are cramped, don't have live in staff, deliveries come and go, tradesman work in and out daily.


----------



## MarkF (12 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Sadly that's not happening look at New Zealand they did it not just because they did what was needed but the PM made every believe it was a national issue and everyone was in together.



That sounds like Sweden could be described, but NZ still has the problem to deal with.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> The linear focus switch from deaths/spikes/second wave to "cases" is astonishing! Such is the scale of false positives, asymptomatic and past infections that UK "cases" are practically meaningless, especially as such a large % are collge/uni kids, but that's where the focus has shifted to for the doomsayers, because there's nothing much else. We know we are using a flawed system but it serves that purpose. The case farce is laid bare by the testing procedures in neighbouring Argentina and Uruguay, one has a severe "case" problem, one doesn't have one at all....you want "cases" in September? You'll get them every year, you want to scare people and keep the fear narrative going, then test students, easy peasy
> View attachment 551939
> 
> Maybe the government is jealous of The Netherlands and is hoping to eventually produce an even more bonkers case/death graph?
> ...



Obviously Brandolini's law of bullsh1t applies to this lengthy mishmash of half-truths and wishful thinking.

But please, by all means, enumerate your first claim:



> Such is the scale of false positives, asymptomatic and past infections that UK "cases" are practically meaningless



as those who refuse to do arithmetic are doomed to talking nonsense as you post richly illustrates.

As to the Netherlands - their patients are now being taken to Germany, so overrun are their hospitals.

And it's all doom mongering, naturally.


----------



## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Leadership is more than talking action at the right time, at the right level even if it's not popular. People have to believe everyone is in it together. Sadly that's not happening look at New Zealand they did it not just because they did what was needed but the PM made every believe it was a national issue and everyone was in together.



Politicians seemed to be spending a large amount of time in the summer what amounted to saying we wouldn't have a second wave, then this gradually changed from 'risk of' and 'spike' and 'surge' to not even talking about that any more. There was a political focus on schools, pubs and holidays and I genuinely think they (and not the universities themselves) spent very little time thinking about such things.

The government doesn't have anything to offer the population so it is hard persuading during a second wave and any severe restrictions. They can't keep them safe. The media are now starting to realise that some of the stuff previously implied about a vaccine is no more informed than if a 5 year old said it. So for tens of millions they can't offer them a vaccine. On treatments in layman's terms there aren't 'treatments' for covid-19 as to what parts of the general population would term it (as opposed to hospitalised treatments that have made a real difference) and may never be, or if there are they may never be widely available. The government can't promise to save jobs. It can't promise to create jobs. They can't run a mass testing programme. After around 8 months we're at 300,000 testing capacity per day. By the time you factor in workers who need to be tested and the political bungs to certain groups that have made it a bit higher in the testing pecking order than they might otherwise there's not that much left for the general population and that's dwarfed by winter and entire households wanting to be tested. There isn't really anything Boris can offer the population, so why would large swathes pay that much attention (beyond 'common sense' and looking after themselves) to what he says?


----------



## Poacher (12 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> How are prisons managing this so well? Or is it lack of testing? I don't know but they are cramped, don't have live in staff, deliveries come and go, tradesman work in and out daily.
> 
> View attachment 551944


The simple answer is that they aren't managing particularly well.
Lowdham Grange, 6km from me as the crow flies, has *875* prisoners, *500* staff and, as at 2 days ago, *215 *cases.
This figure has undoubtedly increased in the past two days.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-54483142


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Politicians seemed to be spending a large amount of time in the summer what amounted to saying we wouldn't have a second wave, then this gradually changed from 'risk of' and 'spike' and 'surge' to not even talking about that any more. There was a political focus on schools, pubs and holidays and I genuinely think they (and not the universities themselves) spent very little time thinking about such things.
> 
> The government doesn't have anything to offer the population so it is hard persuading during a second wave and any severe restrictions. They can't keep them safe. The media are now starting to realise that some of the stuff previously implied about a vaccine is no more informed than if a 5 year old said it. So for tens of millions they can't offer them a vaccine. On treatments in layman's terms there aren't 'treatments' for covid-19 as to what parts of the general population would term it (as opposed to hospitalised treatments that have made a real difference) and may never be, or if there are they may never be widely available. The government can't promise to save jobs. It can't promise to create jobs. They can't run a mass testing programme. After around 8 months we're at 300,000 testing capacity per day. By the time you factor in workers who need to be tested and the political bungs to certain groups that have made it a bit higher in the testing pecking order than they might otherwise there's not that much left for the general population and that's dwarfed by winter and entire households wanting to be tested. There isn't really anything Boris can offer the population, so why would large swathes pay that much attention (beyond 'common sense' and looking after themselves) to what he says?


They won't that's the problem who can being this back I don't know even if we can find someone the media would only rip them to bit's. 
For not playing the game and not playing for sound bites.


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## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> They won't that's the problem who can being this back I don't know even if we can find someone the media would only rip them to bit's.
> For not playing the game and not playing for sound bites.



I look at what is speculated for tiers 2 and 3 and where is likely to be on those tiers, which is unhelpful to do, but I don't think that's sellable to the public. Find out after 3:30pm.


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## Rezillo (12 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> How are prisons managing this so well? Or is it lack of testing? I don't know but they are cramped, don't have live in staff, deliveries come and go, tradesman work in and out daily.



These figures are for incidents, not cases. It may be that there are fewer prison premises for incidents to occur in when compared to the other sectors. However, the percentages appear to be derived from the ARIs listed in the Week 40 Covid report - if so, it is only one incident, so it is still an interesting point unless that one incident is actually several hundred cases.

The problem with ARI comparisons is that it over-represents sectors where it is easy to identify an outbreak source and there is a large testing regime in place - e.g. care homes. In addition, the case numbers are not proportionate to the incident numbers. Case numbers of two in a single care home will qualify as an incident whereas as other sectors can have scores or more cases per incident.

ARIs also include non-Covid incidents and there was been some very poor press reporting of them, despite the figures also giving the Covid numbers in brackets or simply alongside the ARI totals

Re the 4% food outlet sector figure, even given the drawbacks of incident comparisons, in the week 37 report for week 36, before schools and unis kicked off, this sector recorded the third highest number of Covid-related ARIs and was only one fewer than the ARIs in the second highest category.


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## classic33 (12 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> How are prisons managing this so well? Or is it lack of testing? I don't know but they are cramped, don't have live in staff, deliveries come and go, tradesman work in and out daily.
> 
> View attachment 551944


Latest available figures for cases in UK prisons are two months old, w/e 7th August.


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## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Eh? I posted the Snopes link earlier because there were many fruitloop reports at the time claiming the convoy images were fake, so i thought I would stop any similar claims here when I referred to it as a consequence of health service collapse. What's the problem?
> 
> And why does 80,000+ cases get criticised/corrected when the report link I gave has a median of 117,000? 80,000 was the lowest figure claimed that I knew of, hence 80,000+



You're a public figure or someone who claims to have worked in a field, so your posts must be scrutinised to a much higher level and held to account.

I'm sure you find that annoying, but anything you post may be believed by others.


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> The old petty political games have played out on all sides at all levels. Even now metro mayors are too bothered about sulking off than facing hard facts.


I thought mayors were sulking because they have neither the full hard facts nor powers about this pandemic? It does sound like Whitehall are acting like high priests ("believe us: this is what you must do") again.


> It's time that public health at all levels set the rules, when to use them , took full control of testing and contact tracing. The time for political games is over it's time to let professions do the job pandemics don't play by political rules even now most look like they've not work that one out.


One problem is public health and many of the regional structures needed to do this have already been used for political games, being dismantled by David Cameron's first term nearly a decade ago and not replaced by anything worth a name.


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## Rezillo (12 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> You're a public figure or someone who claims to have worked in a field, so your posts must be scrutinised to a much higher level and held to account.
> 
> I'm sure you find that annoying, but anything you post may be believed by others.



I don't understand how or why you are "holding me to account". I haven't posted anything that is incorrect or not qualified in some way and I make sure that there is usually a source report link included.

The much higher figures claimed for community cases earlier this year are all down to doubling time arguments that I'm staying out of, save that 320,000 cases is only two doubling times away from 80,000. 80,000 is fairly non-controversial but still bad enough.


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> How are prisons managing this so well? Or is it lack of testing? I don't know but they are cramped, don't have live in staff, deliveries come and go, tradesman work in and out daily.
> 
> View attachment 551944



Here spokes someone who as not got a clue. The simple answer is it's been down to luck than anything else. Most of the prison estate is still locked down. Out of cell time is 30 mins a day if lucky in many placers. Most visiting is off and the limited amount is none contact most visitors won't come for fear of bringing the virus with them. Most inter prison transfers have stopped so less prison to prison mixing. 
Most education , training , offender support are all off so no external partner staff are going in. Only outsiders going into the main areas of the prison are members of the ambulance service. The only other outsider with any regular prison contact if they have any onsite provision is the dentist and dental nurse. Who stay in dental area. Some prisons may have onside x-ray but again they stay in that room. All of whom wear PPE as do all prison health care staff. If a prisoner can be treated on site they are only going out when they have to. As with most people hospital outpatient appointments are hardly happening either. 
Deliveries go to stores which is no way near the rest of the prison you can't just call in with stuff.Tradesman don't come and go and even when they do call they are not able to move to freely around the place. 
Every new prisoner is screened by health care as they always are. Not by a machine that go's ping but a HCP so possible covid can be quickly picked up before they get though the door. All new prisoners are isolated (or should be) for 14 days. Before they move onto the wings any possible cases are isolated and checked daily by health care. That chart is not including any staff cases which have been running high for some time. All at risk health wise prisoners are checked daily by health care anyway, many have taken action to isolate themselves anyway. Some prisons have moved them and isolated them in bubbles that stay together. Public health information is all over the place they don't have to rely on Borris for it but ask health professionals straight out. 
The luck is starting to run out Lowdham Grange and Barlinnie are showing that. Going on one week proves nothing cases have been happening since the start. 
Above all it's been to some shear bloody hard work by staff to keep numbers low.


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

Rezillo said:


> These figures are for incidents, not cases. It may be that there are fewer prison premises for incidents to occur in when compared to the other sectors. However, the percentages appear to be derived from the ARIs listed in the Week 40 Covid report - if so, it is only one incident, so it is still an interesting pointm unless that one incident is actually several hundred cases.
> 
> The problem with ARI comparisons is that it over-represents sectors where it is easy to identify an outbreak source and there is a large testing regime in place - e.g. care homes. In addition, the case numbers are not proportionate to the incident numbers. Case numbers of two in a single care home will qualify as an incident whereas as other sectors can have scores or more cases per incident.
> 
> ...


The numbers are API based and not that up to date. Prison covid numbers are not published quickly if at all.


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## DaveReading (12 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> How are prisons managing this so well?



Prisoners represent around 0.15% of the adult population and 1% of the Covid cases.

And you call that "managing well" ?


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

If reports are true look's like my area is set for level 2. Soon find out


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

So, here's what WHO are currently advising countries to improve on:
· Control sporadic clusters by rapid case finding and contact tracing/quarantining/support
· Community engagement (I think this is what we'd call public information) about washing hands, avoiding face-touching, distancing, isolating and identifying as a contact when appropriate.
· Suppress community transmission through occupational health and safety (I think this is what our "Covid Safe" stuff is for)
· Data management and dissemination (the data that mayors and counties are complaining they are not getting)
· Develop vaccines and therapeutics

The Prime Minister's statement contributes only a little to the second of these by simplifying distancing, a little. It seems like they've dithered until the deadline and so failed to simplify things much. There will be three levels of restriction: medium is the current confusing muddle which few people remember; high is the muddle but no indoor mixing; and very high is high plus closed bars and other restrictions not yet decided!


View: https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315664211901657088


Starmer quoted some of the PM's past statements back at him, highlighted how they did not come to pass and expressed scepticism that this will work either. What could do he, though? He's not running this show.


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

Statement starts 4min 20 into this:

View: https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1315661395854266368


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## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

The second wave and second severe set of restrictions is here. Good luck everyone.


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## fossyant (12 Oct 2020)

Dodged that with Tier 2 here ! Phew.


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## Rusty Nails (12 Oct 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Prisoners represent around 0.15% of the adult population and 1% of the Covid cases.
> 
> And you call that "managing well" ?



Damn you and your facts. You'll be expecting people to understand the statistics they quote next.


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## DCLane (12 Oct 2020)

Tier 2 here for now. The government has lost control, if they ever had it, after an opportunity in late Jan.

Preparations made and we'll see what happens this time. SWMBO's getting ready to move into hospital accommodation for 3-4 weeks if it gets bad again on her Covid rehab wards.


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

It's being reported that even at level 3 pubs that 'food-based pubs' can stay open ie the big chains. 
So If you don't "substantially" sell food like small community based ones. Have to close remind me how much did Martian give to the conservative party ?


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## matticus (12 Oct 2020)

Bit of light relief. I just googled "BBC lockdown" to get the latest news. First result was this:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3BUrtNeh3k&feature=emb_logo


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## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's being reported that even at level 3 pubs that 'food-based pubs' can stay open ie the big chains.
> So If you don't "substantially" sell food like small community based ones. Have to close remind me how much did Martian give to the conservative party ?



Restaurants staying open, so MPs don't have to make sarnies.

Schools, pubs, gyms, holidays, restaurants just swap around these things every few weeks with new restrictions and changes and you have a DIY government policy.


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Restaurants staying open, so MPs don't have to make sarnies.
> 
> Schools, pubs, gyms, holidays, restaurants just swap around these things every few weeks with new restrictions and changes and you have a DIY government policy.


In the mean time covid can dine out at which ever "all you can eat" buffet it likes.


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## Electric_Andy (12 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> swap around these things every few weeks with new restrictions and changes and you have a DIY government policy.


 I think you've hit the nail on the head there. What gets me is this lunacy around 10pm closing, and that no evidence was even given when asked for. IMO as long as you have pubs open at night, you're going to get scenes as seen in Liverpool and other cities where people just spill out and cuddle each other becasue they're drunk. The fear is that thes epoeple would have "illegal house parties" afterwards, but surely that's easier to enforce (fines) than a group of stragglers spilling out of a pub into the street


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## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

List published. From the BBC from gov.uk

*Medium*


All areas, excluding those listed below
*High*


Cheshire (Cheshire West and Chester, Cheshire East)
Greater Manchester (Manchester, Bolton, Bury, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, Wigan, Salford, Rochdale, Oldham)
Warrington
Derbyshire (High Peak - the wards of Tintwistle, Padfield, Dinting, St John’s, Old Glossop, Whitfield, Simmondley, Gamesley, Howard Town, Hadfield South, Hadfield North)
Lancashire (Lancashire, Blackpool, Preston, Blackburn with Darwen, Burnley)
West Yorkshire (Leeds, Bradford, Kirklees, Calderdale, Wakefield)
South Yorkshire (Barnsley, Rotherham, Doncaster, Sheffield)
North East (Newcastle, South Tyneside, North Tyneside, Gateshead, Sunderland, Durham, Northumberland)
Tees Valley (Middlesborough, Redcar and Cleveland, Stockton-on-Tees, Darlington, Hartlepool)
West Midlands (Birmingham, Sandwell, Solihull, Wolverhampton, Walsall)
Leicester (Leicester, Oadby and Wigston)
Nottingham (Nottinghamshire, Nottingham City)
*Very High*


Liverpool City Region (Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton, Halton)

It has been emphasised other areas may be very high soon.


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I think you've hit the nail on the head there. What gets me is this lunacy around 10pm closing, and that no evidence was even given when asked for. IMO as long as you have pubs open at night, you're going to get scenes as seen in Liverpool and other cities where people just spill out and cuddle each other becasue they're drunk.


And if all the pubs kick out at once, the police or covid marshalls or whatever can't be everywhere at the same time fining everyone. I don't think early closing has looked like it's worked in any country that's tried it unless it's extremely early like 8pm or before and that's probably why no evidence was given.



> The fear is that thes epoeple would have "illegal house parties" afterwards, but surely that's easier to enforce (fines) than a group of stragglers spilling out of a pub into the street


Whereas now early closing means people are already kitted out for house parties (TV news at lunchtime showed kegs on balconies of blocks of flats and so on), so if pubs close, they'll just start the parties earlier.

Johnson's government isn't just missing a trick. It feels like they're missing all the tricks and are now just grasping at the same failed straws over and over. Look at all the things that were rumoured to be coming, such as travel bans and more workplace measures: literally none of them seem to be added today, while they have another dither.


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## Milzy (12 Oct 2020)

Fat old unfit folk are making swift recoveries. 
Why can’t just the vulnerable shield?
Wouldn’t it be best to catch it and move forwards? 
This local lock down nonsense won’t do any good. 60 million people and hardly anybody to police people meeting up in each other’s houses. You’re having a laugh. Can any of you Covid marshals explain the logic behind all this and how long it’s going to go on for? Will there be a third wave in March? Thanks.


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

Rule of six is still a problem it's open to too many households mixing. Thought the BMA a few days again had a better idea of no more than two households up to a max of 6 people in total. i'd have liked the government to also taken up the BMA on extending use of face coverings.


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## roubaixtuesday (12 Oct 2020)

Milzy said:


> Fat old unfit folk are making swift recoveries.
> Why can’t just the vulnerable shield?
> Wouldn’t it be best to catch it and move forwards?
> This local lock down nonsense won’t do any good. 60 million people and hardly anybody to police people meeting up in each other’s houses. You’re having a laugh. Can any of you Covid marshals explain the logic behind all this and how long it’s going to go on for? Will there be a third wave in March? Thanks.



As explained before, in order to approach herd immunity we need to kill about a quarter of a million people or so.

That's the previous peak deaths, but every day for 10 months.

Can you see any flaws in your plan yet?


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## Rusty Nails (12 Oct 2020)

Milzy said:


> *Fat old unfit folk are making swift recoveries.*
> Why can’t just the vulnerable shield?
> Wouldn’t it be best to catch it and move forwards?
> This local lock down nonsense won’t do any good. 60 million people and hardly anybody to police people meeting up in each other’s houses. You’re having a laugh. Can any of you Covid marshals explain the logic behind all this and how long it’s going to go on for? Will there be a third wave in March? Thanks.



Are all fat, old and unfit people recovering swiftly? Is the % of such people recovering higher or lower than thinner, younger and fitter people, and do you have the data, or are you just making stuff up to suit your opinions? You cannot base your views on the swift recovery of the old, fat, unfit idiot, who had fantastically expensive, immediate treatment, currently in charge of the US.

And some vulnerable people are recovering, so why bother shielding them?


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## matticus (12 Oct 2020)

If the young (and/or brave) could volunteer for infection, and then isolate (for some short time) in some way that guaranteed not infecting those more vulnerable, then that *seems* an attractive idea.


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## Ming the Merciless (12 Oct 2020)

Is it just me or do you find Chris Whitty quite clear and engaging and then you stop listening when Boris starts speaking?


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## pawl (12 Oct 2020)

DCLane said:


> Tier 2 here for now. The government has lost control, if they ever had it after an opportunity in late Jan.
> 
> Preparation s made and we'll see what happens this time. SWMBO's getting ready to move into hospital accommodation for 3-4 weeks if it gets bad again on her Covid rehab wards.




I don’t live in Yorkshire but is my favourite county.Well done to your wife
Having worked myself within the NHS and know how hard they work


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## All uphill (12 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> If the young (and/or brave) could volunteer for infection, and then isolate (for some short time) in some way that guaranteed not infecting those more vulnerable, then that *seems* an attractive idea.


But it's not all young people who go through this unscathed. I don't know many people in their teens/ twenties but I do know two who are experiencing long covid. It's very nasty. 

Some people still seem to think with covid that you either live an unchanged life, or you die, but the inconvenient truth is that lives are being blighted.


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## classic33 (12 Oct 2020)

Milzy said:


> Fat old unfit folk are making swift recoveries.
> * Why can’t just the vulnerable shield?*
> Wouldn’t it be best to catch it and move forwards?
> This local lock down nonsense won’t do any good. 60 million people and hardly anybody to police people meeting up in each other’s houses. You’re having a laugh. Can any of you Covid marshals explain the logic behind all this and how long it’s going to go on for? Will there be a third wave in March? Thanks.


What would that actually achieve?

I'm in "high risk" due to Mother Nature, she who doesn't care. I can do nothing about that, and to look at there's nothing visible most of the time, so you'd never notice.

I can't take most simple, everyday medications. Adverse reactions to them. But over the years I've had ample time to see the effects of late night kicking out time/the effects of drink, in many A&E's. Why not address those. Police in the A&E outnumbering those there to be treated.

Thursday became the new Friday over twenty years ago.


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## Wobblers (12 Oct 2020)

Milzy said:


> Fat old unfit folk are making swift recoveries.
> Why can’t just the vulnerable shield?
> Wouldn’t it be best to catch it and move forwards?
> This local lock down nonsense won’t do any good. 60 million people and hardly anybody to police people meeting up in each other’s houses. You’re having a laugh. Can any of you Covid marshals explain the logic behind all this and how long it’s going to go on for? Will there be a third wave in March? Thanks.



About 10-20% of those infected end up with "long Covid", with symptoms and chronic tiredness extending over many months. This includes slim young fit folk. Ignoring the fact that what you suggest will kill 250,000 people (at least) (!) it means we'll have at least 6 million people who'll be unable to work or earn for a significant length of time. But they'll still need to be fed, housed and treated. The economic consequences of that alone are severe. Plus there will be hundreds of thousands of people left with long term, possibly lifelong, health issues, who'll need expensive medical treatment, along with having their lives blighted.


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## roubaixtuesday (12 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> If the young (and/or brave) could volunteer for infection, and then isolate (for some short time) in some way that guaranteed not infecting those more vulnerable, then that *seems* an attractive idea.



We need probably 70% infection. 

So that's everyone, literally _everyone_ under the age of, say, 60.

To be compulsarily (I don't think you'll get many volunteers for this) infected with a potentially deadly virus and locked up for a fortnight. 

Luck.


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

All uphill said:


> But it's not all young people who go through this unscathed. I don't know many people in their teens/ twenties but I do know two who are experiencing long covid. It's very nasty.
> 
> Some people still seem to think with covid that you either live an unchanged life, or you die, but the inconvenient truth is that lives are being blighted.


This is the whole point the message need's to change all the range of covid has it's risks and effects which end of the scale you end up with is not a risk you should take. Ending up on ventilation and recovering is not a good out come either. The effects of being on ventilation mean a long way to recovery at best. At worse life changing effects which you may never get over. We know someone who months later is still on ventilation though he's awake. Like many on on ventilation his kidneys are now shot he may have got over covid but he's not going to be same person he was. He was young and healthy covid is not something you want to catch at any age it's effects are wide ranging the effects of which long term are unknown. It's been talked about on here long enough if some still don't get it then sadly they never will.


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## roubaixtuesday (12 Oct 2020)

Devastating honesty from Whitty: Tier 3 is not enough.





But what I don't understand - why would any of theother tiers be enough?

Surely, the implication of this policy is that all areas will progress up through the tiers to a new Tier 4 which Whitty implies?

Or is the theory that the mere existence of higher tiers will scare the bejesus out of the population and cow us into better compliance?


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## midlife (12 Oct 2020)

I thought there would be an "oh cr@p" tier equivalent to an almost total local lockdown.


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Or is the theory that the mere existence of higher tiers will scare the bejesus out of the population and cow us into better compliance?


I don't know what the theory is, but the practice is that they can't even agree amongst themselves (politicians and officers) what restrictions are both acceptable and effective.

I expect they'll do the same as they have on another subject. They'll agree at the eleventh hour what they think is the best for them, then tell the coronavirus and it'll just have to comply because they know best, won't it?


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## All uphill (12 Oct 2020)

It matters very little what the rules are if those imposing them do not have the respect of the public to ensure large scale compliance. Enforcement cannot change population behaviour unless there is move to a police state.

I fear that we will have successive waves with deaths and damaged lives until the general population consistently modify their behaviour in ways that control the virus, or until natural selection and whatever immunity there may be limits the effects.


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Devastating honesty from Whitty: Tier 3 is not enough.
> View attachment 552064
> 
> But what I don't understand - why would any of theother tiers be enough?
> ...



Beaten me to it I was about to ask who else thought how soon 2 becomes 3 and 3 becomes 4. 
He maybe heading the press off at the pass. They have picked up on this and are talking about they can't exactly use it to rubbish the idea that the tier 4 areas are not in a bad way. They've been reporting and talking about often enough. They love putting egg on other faces not the other way round.
If he'd have said all the tiers may not be good enough. They'd have ran with it and they'd be shot to bit before they even got off the ground. 
We most likely will find out that all the tiers have room to add extras. The government will just blame us for not playing by the rules or say local leaders want more. Whitty also has been careful to use the word slow and slow further. He's not saying it will slow it quick enough so leaves room to explain why they may need looking at again.


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

All uphill said:


> It matters very little what the rules are if those imposing them do not have the respect of the public to ensure large scale compliance. Enforcement cannot change population behaviour unless there is move to a police state.
> 
> I fear that we will have successive waves with deaths and damaged lives until the general population consistently modify their behaviour in ways that control the virus, or until natural selection and whatever immunity there may be limits the effects.


Either of them options are grim the lack of social science around this is deafening. The government don't look to have got even a simple understanding of the basics. Believing that the normal social political way works. Whitty will know this and that will have played into how he handled today he's always been clear and never blamed the masses for the mess. He and the rest of sage appear the only ones to have treated the public as grown up's and told it how it is. He's not into sound bites and being Mr popular he's a man of science and tell's it how it is. Even if the press don't hear the answers they want to hear.


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Rule of six is still a problem it's open to too many households mixing. Thought the BMA a few days again had a better idea of no more than two households up to a max of 6 people in total. i'd have liked the government to also taken up the BMA on extending use of face coverings.


I didn't like that suggestion. I thought it was almost impossible to police and also it would encourage people to play games to still see everyone. At the moment, it's difficult enough for cycling clubs to get some people to stay in their bloody sixes and not chop and change. If they're now going to say two households, that means most "subgroups" will be two with some threes, fours and rarely more and most subgroups would have no one who feels strongly that the restrictions make enough sense to obey (which means most others comply out of respect for them), so they'd probably be reforming out of sight whenever they caught another subgroup and that would probably end up with more than six having been exposed if anyone falls ill, even though that wouldn't be classed as close contacts at the moment, but it's all probabilistic.

And the same would probably happen with every surviving social activity, so it'd probably backfire and I'm not sure what the BMA were thinking would happen. Did they think more would comply with tighter restrictions?


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## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> I thought there would be an "oh cr@p" tier equivalent to an almost total local lockdown.



As long as it isn't called national and appears less severe, even if it isn't (for Boris's benefit).


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## MarkF (12 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Here spokes someone who as not got a clue.



Ta Tom, not knowing is why I asked, never be afraid to say you don't know. At least you've upgraded on "moron" or "braindead" so we are getting somewere.


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

Restaurant reviewer joins the complaints:
"It is unclear how forcing everyone on to public transport at roughly the same time, while simultaneously slashing the profits of every hospitality outlet that has survived thus far, is helping us combat the virus, but still, I trust those in charge implicitly."
https://www.theguardian.com/food/20...-a-bit-of-genius-grace-dent-restaurant-review


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> As long as it isn't called national and appears less severe, even if it isn't (for Boris's benefit).


What you thinking it maybe called ? 
We have 1m+ so tier 4 + (don't blame us local leaders asked for it) maybe ?


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## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> What you thinking it maybe called ?
> We have 1m+ so tier 4 + (don't blame us local leaders asked for it) maybe ?



Probably needs a 4+.

Just checked the Liverpool restrictions and there is a public outdoor spaces exemption for groups of up to six. This among other things may be why the whitty said it's not enough as the base level isn't as different as it sounds.


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## roubaixtuesday (12 Oct 2020)

It appears from latest minutes that my views on the useless dithering of the govt are shared by their scientific advisers. 

I can honestly say this brings me absolutely no pleasure whatsoever. 

The lesson of the first wave: 
Act rapidly or regret at length

The action for the second wave:
Dither at length. Regrets to follow. 

It will now take many weeks of further social and economic pain, paid in unemployment and bereavement, to undo the blindingly obvious mistakes since the cretinous "Stop skiving. Save Pret. Catch Covid" message. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...roposals-from-sage-to-avert-covid-second-wave


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> I didn't like that suggestion. I thought it was almost impossible to police and also it would encourage people to play games to still see everyone. At the moment, it's difficult enough for cycling clubs to get some people to stay in their bloody sixes and not chop and change. If they're now going to say two households, that means most "subgroups" will be two with some threes, fours and rarely more and most subgroups would have no one who feels strongly that the restrictions make enough sense to obey (which means most others comply out of respect for them), so they'd probably be reforming out of sight whenever they caught another subgroup and that would probably end up with more than six having been exposed if anyone falls ill, even though that wouldn't be classed as close contacts at the moment, but it's all probabilistic.
> 
> And the same would probably happen with every surviving social activity, so it'd probably backfire and I'm not sure what the BMA were thinking would happen. Did they think more would comply with tighter restrictions?



I don't think the BMA are too worried about outdoor exercise. More smaller subgroups are much a better idea than a few larger groups of more households. They have more a problem with households spending hours mixing indoors. They also more likely wanted to get out the idea that what ever the rule is it's a good idea for everyone to sink social bubbles.


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## classic33 (12 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Restaurant reviewer joins the complaints:
> "It is unclear how forcing everyone on to public transport at roughly the same time, while simultaneously slashing the profits of every hospitality outlet that has survived thus far, is helping us combat the virus, but still, I trust those in charge implicitly."
> https://www.theguardian.com/food/20...-a-bit-of-genius-grace-dent-restaurant-review


Whose forcing people onto public transport. Some have no other options when it comes to getting to work.

Again numbers allowed are restricted, 16 per carriage on local services. Buses have had their capacity cut in half.

Pubs are a place a person can choose to go to. Often using public transport to travel to and from them.


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## marinyork (12 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It appears from latest minutes that my views on the useless dithering of the govt are shared by their scientific advisers.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...roposals-from-sage-to-avert-covid-second-wave



Restaurants, cafes and hairdressers were suggested to close. Interesting.


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## MarkF (12 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The action for the second wave:



When do you think this second wave is going to arrive? Not the seasonal ripple we are predicitably experiencing, with a further ripple to follow later in winter (just like flu), but this calamitious second wave, when & why? The arrivals are different patients compared to spring, obese but younger, and the treatment and understanding way better, all the time the waiting lists grow............

I'll hold my hand up as soon as I appear wrong. But it's not my opinion of course, just the opinion of frustated professionals who have long been censored & professionally sanctioned. Luckily I happened across Michael Levitt months ago, I wouldn't trust anything I read in a newspaper right now.


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> I don't think the BMA are too worried about outdoor exercise.


I saw no suggestion that it should be exempted from the six rule in general?



> More smaller subgroups are much a better idea than a few larger groups of more households.


Why is it better to spend time with maybe eighteen people over the course of a day than just six?



> They have more a problem with households spending hours mixing indoors. They also more likely wanted to get out the idea that what ever the rule is it's a good idea for everyone to sink social bubbles.


They should suggest something about indoors, then, and I've no idea what sinking social bubbles means.


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## tom73 (12 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It appears from latest minutes that my views on the useless dithering of the govt are shared by their scientific advisers.
> 
> I can honestly say this brings me absolutely no pleasure whatsoever.
> 
> ...



The 21st September and nothing by Wednesday that's 23 days worth of baked in hospital admissions and deaths. It's madness and totally preventable. 
Yet again they don't hold back about test and trace either and again nothing has changed. 
“this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment”.
“Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of test, trace and isolate will further decline in the future,”


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## mjr (12 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Luckily I happened across Michael Levitt months ago, I wouldn't trust anything I read in a newspaper right now.


But you trust someone who forecast Covid would be over in the USA by 25 August? Assuming you don't mean the TV producer or the Canadian politician.


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## MarkF (12 Oct 2020)

Ignoring the UK, I can see no "second wave" in any european country to date, ripples yes, but no second wave, why should we be different? Spain, France, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland...........


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## MarkF (12 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> But you trust someone who forecast Covid would be over in the USA by 25 August? Assuming you don't mean the TV producer or the Canadian politician.


 He was taken to task on that but you've got to admit, expressed himself well honestly and publically, no squirming. And has since been proved correct.


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## MarkF (12 Oct 2020)

We should not be using high % (perhaps 90%+) false positive "cases" for anything. We should be using only, hospitalisations, ICU admissions, deaths and* recoveries.*


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## classic33 (12 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Ignoring the UK, I can see no "second wave" in any european country to date, ripples yes, but no second wave, why should we be different? Spain, France, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland...........


Why then have France upped the restrictions?
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-paris-restrictions-bars-close/

And a possible admission that Sweden did get herd immunity theory wrong.
https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-coronavirus-didnt-seek-herd-immunity-torbjorn-sohlstrom/


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## classic33 (12 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> We should not be using high % (perhaps 90%+) false positive "cases" for anything. We should be using only, hospitalisations, ICU admissions, deaths and* recoveries.*


As someone who's had many tests over the years, including blood tests, how accurate is any single test? And how do you know that it is a "false positive". Do you wait to be proven right, it is a "false positive" before you take any action. Get just one case wrong and if you're a medical professional who denied treatment, your career is as good as over.

I've been admitted as a result of these tests at times. Therefore, they count against me. At times the results shouldn't have been possible, but the human body reacts in many different ways. Not everyone reacts in the same way as each other.


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## Edwardoka (13 Oct 2020)

We've known about measles for over a thousand years. We know how to combat it, what effects it has on people. We have a vaccine. We can make predictions about disease progression 5, 10, 20 years down the line after primary infection. Bubonic plague still exists.

We have none of that for covid. It is completely new, and highly mutable.
We have literally no idea how it progresses nor what the relapse rate is, nor whether it lies dormant and can be reactivated given a set of conditions.

The idea that if everyone catches it it will magically be gone is complete and utter horse manure.

If my time on the planet has taught me anything, it's that we, as a species, are spectacularly short-sighted, and almostly entirely incapable of predicting or dealing with unintended consequences, or worse, when we do predict unintended consequences, we* brush them under the carpet and leave it to the following generations to deal with the fallout of our idiocy, hubris and inadequacy.

* People who stand to gain from the status quo


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## Edwardoka (13 Oct 2020)




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## tom73 (13 Oct 2020)

Question for the let it rip supporters 
Name any infectious disease that has gained herd immunity using nothing more than natural process, without the use of a vaccine, by improving living conditions or other social policy changers to improve public health ?
Hint we don't have any.


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## mjr (13 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> He was taken to task on that but you've got to admit, expressed himself well honestly and publically, no squirming. And has since been proved correct.




What happened when he was taken to task? Is he one of the ones who defended incorrect predictions as trying to stop people worrying?

How was he since proven correct? Covid is not over in the USA even now!


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Oct 2020)

This Michael Levitt fella seems very reliable, excellent track record.

https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2020/09/21/the-lethal-nonsense-of-michael-levitt/

The 10 deaths predicted in Israel was particularly notable!

I think we're in Feynman territory at this point.

“_The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool._”


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## PK99 (13 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> As someone who's had many tests over the years, including blood tests, how accurate is any single test? And how do you know that it is a "false positive". Do you wait to be proven right, it is a "false positive" before you take any action. Get just one case wrong and if you're a medical professional who denied treatment, your career is as good as over.
> 
> I've been admitted as a result of these tests at times. Therefore, they count against me. At times the results shouldn't have been possible, but the human body reacts in many different ways. Not everyone reacts in the same way as each other.



For the individual a positive is positive and you act accordingly.

When assessing at the population level false positives are a key factor in understanding what is happening.


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## mjr (13 Oct 2020)

North of Tyne Mayor Driscoll tas on TV pointing out that mayors aren't getting the support and powers needed to keep outbreaks under control until their areas are in the "very high" tier, when by definition then outbreaks are out of control. He points out this makes no sense.


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## tom73 (13 Oct 2020)

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext
First reported reinfection in the US a number of things may have happened which can explain it. What's more a concern is a fit and healthy young person. Having got covid second time round ended up critical ill. 
Given the large number of cases world wide you'd expect more reports. But given the high number of asymptomatic cases it's possible that many are not picked up first time.


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## mjr (13 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Given the large number of cases world wide you'd expect more reports. But given the high number of asymptomatic cases it's possible that many are not picked up first time.


Early on, some stupid countries didn't test many of those admitted to hospitals, which then makes their reinfection only "suspected".


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext
> First reported reinfection in the US a number of things may have happened which can explain it. What's more a concern is a fit and healthy young person. Having got covid second time round ended up critical ill.
> Given the large number of cases world wide you'd expect more reports. But given the high number of asymptomatic cases it's possible that many are not picked up first time.



I think the general view now is that sufficient people have tested positive in the past that if this was a major or common problem, it would be much more visible by now. 

For instance, in the UK 600,000 people have tested positive (about 300,000 from the first wave). If reinfection were anything other than vanishingly rare, I think you'd expect many hundreds of second positives here by now, if second infections were symptomatic. 

Of course, it's cautionary, may be more common with time, and may have vaccine implications too.


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## mjr (13 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Ignoring the UK, I can see no "second wave" in any european country to date, ripples yes, but no second wave, why should we be different? Spain, France, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland...........


A wave breaking slowly and being broken up by being stamped on is still a wave. Let's wait and see. I hope we return to July/August levels soon but I suspect we won't because the government is doing only a small part of what its scientists recommend after three weeks of dither and delay.


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> I hope we return to July/August levels soon



Realistically, the chances of this happening are remote in the extreme. If we manage to drive down numbers, it's almost certain to be much slower than they came up. And Whitty made it clear yesterday that none of the tiers are expected to suppress the virus. 

Perhaps the best case scenario is then three or four weeks of slower rising cases, followed by more restrictions, then a gradual fall through winter to spring. Even positive early vaccine news is likely too late to influence this now, and a huge shake up of the broken test track trace system doesn't seem on the cards. 

Unless something really unexpected happens, like the dynamics being almost entirely down to students, and a rapid burn through that population drives overall numbers more than expected. Don't hold your breath.


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## tom73 (13 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think the general view now is that sufficient people have tested positive in the past that if this was a major or common problem, it would be much more visible by now.
> 
> For instance, in the UK 600,000 people have tested positive (about 300,000 from the first wave). If reinfection were anything other than vanishingly rare, I think you'd expect many hundreds of second positives here by now, if second infections were symptomatic.
> 
> Of course, it's cautionary, may be more common with time, and may have vaccine implications too.


Yes was just a thought more than anything and like you say still leaves a few questions.
On second positives we don't count them as a case anymore if I've read the footnotes on numbers correctly.


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## tom73 (13 Oct 2020)

@mjr I hope we return to July/August levels soon
Very much doubt it and even by a total sighting of a fly pig we did achieve it. The government have shown that they get all giddy and we lose it all again. Things will sadly get worse long before they get better.[/QUOTE]


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## MrGrumpy (13 Oct 2020)

It’s really a monumental f up. Track and trace seems broken. Even up here I’ve heard stories of folk handing over fake details when registering in pubs etc. Never quite understood why the rule of 6 down south could mean 6 different households meeting up !! Whereas up here it’s 6 but only two households . Big difference! No wonder it’s a bleeding mess.


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Oct 2020)

Being on SAGE...


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## mjr (13 Oct 2020)

I did say "hope" above!



MrGrumpy said:


> It’s really a monumental f up. Track and trace seems broken. Even up here I’ve heard stories of folk handing over fake details when registering in pubs etc.


That's because few trust Dido and Serco and the attempt to hold more data for longer reduced it further.



> Never quite understood why the rule of 6 down south could mean 6 different households meeting up !! Whereas up here it’s 6 but only two households . Big difference! No wonder it’s a bleeding mess.


The difference is minor and basically irrelevant while there's no limit on how many sixes you can meet each day, week or even hour.


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## mjr (13 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> and a huge shake up of the broken test track trace system doesn't seem on the cards.


Do we know why not? Is it, as Gavin Esler has suggested, because we also have problems with "cronyvirus"?


----------



## classic33 (13 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Do we know why not? Is it, as Gavin Esler has suggested, because we also have problems with "cronyvirus"?


He said exactly the same about the Highway Code & cyclists, ten years ago.


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## mjr (13 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> He said exactly the same about the Highway Code & cyclists, ten years ago.


Link? It doesn't seem to have been posted on here before.


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## classic33 (13 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Link? It doesn't seem to have been posted on here before.


It's just a common expression used by him.


----------



## MrGrumpy (13 Oct 2020)

> The difference is minor and basically irrelevant while there's no limit on how many sixes you can meet each day, week or even hour.



it makes a big difference if one of those 6 has the infection ?? Surely !? Just proves the point that the rule of 6 does not go far enough .


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## tom73 (13 Oct 2020)

ONS report death rate now doubling every 2 weeks.


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## matticus (13 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> We need probably 70% infection.
> 
> So that's everyone, literally _everyone_ under the age of, say, 60.
> 
> To be compulsarily (I don't think you'll get many volunteers for this) infected with a potentially deadly virus and locked up for a fortnight.


Indeed, I think it's incredibly unlikely! I was responding to this suggestion:

"Milzy said:
Fat old unfit folk are making swift recoveries.
*Why can’t just the vulnerable shield?*
Wouldn’t it be best to catch it and move forwards?
"

If we *could* do it in a controlled way, then even well below the 70% figure it would be beneficial to infect+isolate people. (I think your later post backs this up 


roubaixtuesday said:


> For instance, in the UK 600,000 people have tested positive (about 300,000 from the first wave). If reinfection were anything other than vanishingly rare, I think you'd expect many hundreds of second positives here by now, if second infections were symptomatic.



*But more importantly, let's look at this:*


roubaixtuesday said:


> Luck.


This pandemic may bring the end of the world, but could we please maintain proper english, with complete sentences??


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> This pandemic may bring the end of the world, but could we please maintain proper english, with complete sentences??



I can only offer my most profuse apologies. In mitigation, I listened to the Prime Minister earlier in the evening, which I fear may have blown several key synapses in my grammar cortex.

I would also respectfully not that the convention in English is that a single question mark suffices, and discourage your tautologous use of the second in future correspondence.


----------



## icowden (13 Oct 2020)

There is an interesting write up in this week's Private Eye from MD, their medical correspondent. He/she has repeatedly suggested (and indeed is a signatory on a letter from more than 60 GPs to Matt Hancock) that the Government need to start taking a more nuanced approach to Covid19 taking into account risks from all sources rather than just those around Covid.

He/she makes the point that for example, students aged 18-24 being locked in their halls of residence are more likely to die from being struck by lightning than from Covid19 based on current knowledge of the virus, and that the effects of isolation far from home in terms of depression and suicide are likely to be far more devastating than catching Covid for this age group. Of course there may be some students who are more vulnerable and for whom alternative arrangements might be needed, but constantly treating everyone the same way has bigger health repercussions further down the line.


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## matticus (13 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I would also respectfully not that the convention in English is that a single question mark suffices, and discourage your tautologous use of the second in future correspondence.


Internet, innit.

(I'll write in green ink next time.)


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## tom73 (13 Oct 2020)

New guidance for shielding and only for clinically extremely vulnerable. Not clinically vulnerable which is everyone over 70. 
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ng-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19


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## qigong chimp (13 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I would also respectfully not that the convention etc..


Why wouldn't you?


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## mjr (13 Oct 2020)

icowden said:


> [...], and that the effects of isolation far from home in terms of depression and suicide are likely to be far more devastating than catching Covid for this age group.


And what about the danger they pose through infecting others?

We've already got a confusing and arbitrary-looking set of restrictions which vary by location that the government is failing to communicate. The few person categories like vulnerable and extremely vulnerable have been communicated terribly, with some older people being berated in the streets for daring to go buy food. How would adding even more variation by personal attributes going to improve clarity, compliance, case numbers or anything much?


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> Internet, innit.
> 
> (I'll write in green ink next time.)



It's a *plan!*


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## Rusty Nails (13 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> This pandemic may bring the end of the world, but could we please maintain proper english, with complete sentences??



And correct capitalisation of proper nouns.


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## mjr (13 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> And correct capitalisation of proper nouns.


And not having a conjunction starting a post, or using one to end a post with.


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## Milzy (13 Oct 2020)

McWobble said:


> About 10-20% of those infected end up with "long Covid", with symptoms and chronic tiredness extending over many months. This includes slim young fit folk. Ignoring the fact that what you suggest will kill 250,000 people (at least) (!) it means we'll have at least 6 million people who'll be unable to work or earn for a significant length of time. But they'll still need to be fed, housed and treated. The economic consequences of that alone are severe. Plus there will be hundreds of thousands of people left with long term, possibly lifelong, health issues, who'll need expensive medical treatment, along with having their lives blighted.


I get that but we have no clue about long Covid or how it would be in reality yet.


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## Milzy (13 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Are all fat, old and unfit people recovering swiftly? Is the % of such people recovering higher or lower than thinner, younger and fitter people, and do you have the data, or are you just making stuff up to suit your opinions? You cannot base your views on the swift recovery of the old, fat, unfit idiot, who had fantastically expensive, immediate treatment, currently in charge of the US.
> 
> And some vulnerable people are recovering, so why bother shielding them?


Maybe the wotsit idiot had a vaccine?


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## Rusty Nails (13 Oct 2020)

Milzy said:


> Maybe the wotsit idiot had a vaccine?



If he had he couldn't have resisted announcing on Twitter, probably with him claiming he was instrumental in discovering it.


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## Rusty Nails (13 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> And not having a conjunction starting a post, or using one to end a post with.



Conjunctivitus is a condition with which I have suffered.


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## marinyork (13 Oct 2020)

Saliva test trial is scaled back 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...vid-saliva-tests-plan-after-trial-scaled-back


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## classic33 (13 Oct 2020)

Restrictions for the public, being eased locally from midnight. Unless the council get involved and start changing things.


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## tom73 (13 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Saliva test trial is scaled back
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...vid-saliva-tests-plan-after-trial-scaled-back


Operation moon pig going well then. Don’t leave us with many options going into winter


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## midlife (13 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Saliva test trial is scaled back
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...vid-saliva-tests-plan-after-trial-scaled-back



The article says

_But sources said the pilot scheme was struggling to persuade even 250 Salfordians to provide saliva samples._

Is this because positive results and self isolating means loss of pay?


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## mjr (13 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Saliva test trial is scaled back
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...vid-saliva-tests-plan-after-trial-scaled-back


I'm sorry but I've lost track of this one: why is the UK only just now trialling saliva tests when so many other countries are already using them routinely?


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## Rusty Nails (13 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> I'm sorry but I've lost track of this one: why is the UK only just now trialling saliva tests when so many other countries are already using them routinely?



Because we are still looking for something at which we can be world beating.


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## MarkF (13 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> A wave breaking slowly and being broken up by being stamped on is still a wave. Let's wait and see. I hope we return to July/August levels soon but I suspect we won't because the government is doing only a small part of what its scientists recommend after three weeks of dither and delay.



I don't think what is happening now could be described as a wave, it's a predictable seasonal ripple and another will follow. I am sure that there will not be any wave. If there was then it would make the UK unique in Europe and there is no reason for that to be so. So yes, let's wait and see, other scientists want the opposite.

Hospital recoveries are about matching admissions.


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## classic33 (13 Oct 2020)

Not every hospital admission results in a recovery.


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## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

Define hospital recovery.
For many discharge is just the start. Any excess work for primary care and social care at this time needs to be avoided. As we are not yet into peck trips and fall session emergency Orthopedic surgery is not at capacity. Which in turn feeds into already reduced capacity at a time they are expected to increases planned surgery. Both for many increases demand post hospital. 

On the medical side we are not at peck respiratory demand. The latter may now have more equipment such as the widely talked about CPAP. But they need experienced Nurses or chest Physio to safely and efficiently use them. Taking them away for other patients. That's before we can guarantee enough blood gas machines and equipment to take them. Peck respiratory demand is not yet feeding into primary care either. Which is already expected to continue day to day and has been though out but with less capacity. Which if it fails to cope they only have one option that's to admit them. 

So if covid admissions are pegged and less capacity is taken with it it will still go on effecting the rest of the NHS and social care for some time to come. Any extra capacity be it covid or none covid needs the staff across the board and we simply don't have them. Now with unpredictable staff being off isolating at anyone time makes it worse. This is before we even take into account the extra work covid has already added to post hospital capacity.

It's now been confirmed the PPE stock pile is 4 months worth as it's now default with every patient contact covid or not. It will not take much to run out just on masks alone we have no UK manufacturing option.


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 Oct 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/inzyrashid/status/1316130417305677826


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## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> I don't think what is happening now could be described as a wave, it's a predictable seasonal ripple and another will follow. I am sure that there will not be any wave.


OK, how do you define a wave and a ripple, please?

The current increase has been described as a wave by many epidemiologists — such as David J Hunter, professor of epidemiology at Oxford University who said there's "no doubt the second wave is well advanced" — and it definitely looks like the leading edge of a wave, although we'll only be able to tell for sure once it starts to recede.



> If there was then it would make the UK unique in Europe and there is no reason for that to be so.


Maybe not unique, but there is a reason for us to be among the first: we were only a few weeks behind the first-hit European countries in the first wave, but the UK failed to get the virus as much under control afterwards, which makes us vulnerable to being among the first-hit in the second wave because we're starting from a higher level. The lowest the UK got its death rate was 0.1 deaths/M before our government got giddy and started paying and scaring people back into cafes and restos, whereas every other major European nation got their death rates lower than that.

That said, Spain appears to be ahead of us again, but it looks like this wave may have already peaked there (deaths now level, cases halving every 16-78 days) and the UK is now on a much steeper trend (deaths doubling every 8-13 days) than Spain ever was (this wave seems to have peaked at deaths doubling every 24-36 days - all estimates from https://worldhealthorg.shinyapps.io/covid/ ). Maybe Spain's was only a ripple to you, but 100 deaths a day seems a bit more than that to me.



> So yes, let's wait and see, other scientists want the opposite.


But are those scientists the covid equivalent of climate change deniers, getting disproportionate coverage as journalists scratch around for any "balancing" view?



> Hospital recoveries are about matching admissions.


What's your source for that? The estimates I've seen (because there aren't official statistics about this) are about 8 to 1 recovery to death. Maybe that's "about matching" to you, but it still looks like a lot of coffins to me.


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## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Define hospital recovery.


"Hospital recovery" is discharge from covid-related outpatient hospital care and back under the care of their GP, IIRC. As you note, that's far from the whole story, with "long covid" sufferers ending up in A&E again later with heart attacks and other things. Definitely not internationally comparable, either.



> It's now been confirmed the PPE stock pile is 4 months worth as it's now default with every patient contact covid or not. It will not take much to run out just on masks alone we have no UK manufacturing option.


How on Earth do we still have no UK PPE mask manufacturing? A wide range of countries have used emergency powers to enlist local factories to start producing PPE (including the USA, I think) so how deep is Johnson's commitment to laissez-faire to still not intervene? Free market economics over lives?


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## fossyant (14 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/inzyrashid/status/1316130417305677826




They better stay away from their grand parents then !


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## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/inzyrashid/status/1316130417305677826



Every farking time. Announce restrictions but give people a couple of days to fark themselves and each other first. Maybe next time, they could quietly tell businesses to "be ready" to avoid holding stock and stuff and local government and police to be ready to enforce restrictions, but I think many in affected areas were already doing that before Monday's announcements. Then announce the restrictions and start them ASAP. When will they learn?

And on a similar note:

"Analysts say expert-led measures, better compliance and learning from past mistakes are helping some nations manage the virus." https://www.aljazeera.com/features/...s-in-europe-might-avoid-a-second-wave-and-why

Well, that's the UK farked, then


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## matticus (14 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> View: https://twitter.com/inzyrashid/status/1316130417305677826
> 
> 
> Every farking time. Announce restrictions but give people a couple of days to fark themselves and each other first.



So you don't think the selfish spreaders carry _any_ responsibility? Government should be serving us, not parenting us.


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## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> So you don't think the selfish spreaders carry _any_ responsibility?


Wow. What was the basis of thinking the worst of me like that? Of course they do, but we've seen often enough that they're out there. Some are even posting on social media that covid is a hoax or similar. So public policy should adapt to combat them.



> Government should be serving us, not parenting us.


And that service should include protecting us from the farking idiots among us, doesn't it? You know, rather than appointing them as ministers and special advisors and letting them keep their jobs even after doing farking idiotic things...


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 Oct 2020)

Spanish doctors go on strike
https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-...aign=olivepress#utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss


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## pawl (14 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Spanish doctors go on strike
> https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-...aign=olivepress#utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss



Makes a change from air traffic controllers


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## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> How on Earth do we still have no UK PPE mask manufacturing? A wide range of countries have used emergency powers to enlist local factories to start producing PPE (including the USA, I think) so how deep is Johnson's commitment to laissez-faire to still not intervene? Free market economics over lives?


Because we don't have any means to make the material they are made from let alone a factory to make them. On the flip side we do make the material for gowns. One of the biggest producers at the hight of the 1st wave offered all it all could make to the government. Like many who offered stuff they never heard back. So all it's production was shipped to the US who gladly wanted all they could get. 
As for emergency powers I've said this before it's not solely down to the current lot. Labours civil contingency bill never included manufacturing So unlike other level 2 responders no manufacturer can sign up and expect to get a call to switch production to other things. Or get rapid coordinated support with supply. We don't even have national informal list of placers able to change production to other things. 
If you dig around you'll find we given plenty of PPE out to friends of friends and companies with no experience at all in PPE.


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## Low Gear Guy (14 Oct 2020)

Are there any official estimates of the number of people with long covid? 

If it is rare then it is not a big issue from a population point of view. On the other hand if medical treatment is saving significant numbers of lives you could expect patients to be saved but then experience issues and the numbers involved to be a multiple of the deaths I.e. 40000 x 2 = 8000 plus.


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## vickster (14 Oct 2020)

pawl said:


> Makes a change from air traffic controllers


That's normally the French no?  (which means you can't fly to Spain easily from the UK)


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## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Are there any official estimates of the number of people with long covid?
> 
> If it is rare then it is not a big issue from a population point of view. On the other hand if medical treatment is saving significant numbers of lives you could expect patients to be saved but then experience issues and the numbers involved to be a multiple of the deaths I.e. 40000 x 2 = 8000 plus.



Speculation that it's 10 to 20% depending on what you define it as. Viral symptoms more than 30 days later are not as uncommon as people think with flu and other viruses. SARS a lot of patients had long standing symptoms and there are papers out there on it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54296223

Covers a few aspects.


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## classic33 (14 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Because we don't have any means to make the material they are made from *let alone a factory to make them*. On the flip side we do make the material for gowns. One of the biggest producers at the hight of the 1st wave offered all it all could make to the government. Like many who offered stuff they never heard back. So all it's production was shipped to the US who gladly wanted all they could get.
> As for emergency powers I've said this before it's not solely down to the current lot. Labours civil contingency bill never included manufacturing So unlike other level 2 responders no manufacturer can sign up and expect to get a call to switch production to other things. Or get rapid coordinated support with supply. We don't even have national informal list of placers able to change production to other things.
> If you dig around you'll find we given plenty of PPE out to friends of friends and companies with no experience at all in PPE.


https://lshubwales.com/news/uks-fir...-mask-manufacturing-facility-set-open-cardiff

https://www.themanufacturer.com/art...to-produce-ppe-and-equipment-for-nhs-workers/


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## classic33 (14 Oct 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Are there any official estimates of the number of people with long covid?
> 
> If it is rare then it is not a big issue from a population point of view. On the other hand if medical treatment is saving significant numbers of lives you could expect patients to be saved but then experience issues and the numbers involved to be a multiple of the deaths I.e. 40000 x 2 = 8000 plus.


_" 

"National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) funded research on long Covid which is working with 10,000 patients to better understand the condition and refine appropriate treatment. "


https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/10/nhs-to-offer-long-covid-help/_


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## Electric_Andy (14 Oct 2020)

I've just had to go into the office this morning. The site have made huge efforts to make it covid-safe. As I walked down the corridoor, two people passed me without masks on. Also we were asked to stop and wait in a wide area of the corridoor rather than walking past each other; that wasn't being followed either. FInally on the way home I popped into Morrisons to get some peanuts and there were two ladies inside the foyer standing right next to each other having a chat. It doesn't seem like the increased restrictions elsewhere have made anyone stop and think.


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## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> https://www.themanufacturer.com/art...to-produce-ppe-and-equipment-for-nhs-workers/


That article's intro writes a cheque that its body can't cash: I know that there are more "UK manufacturers helping to produce" NHS equipment then are listed there. They might have been missed because their products are in subassemblies or equipment made by non-UK companies which are then sold to UK manufacturers or the NHS.


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## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

Electric_Andy said:


> I've just had to go into the office this morning. The site have made huge efforts to make it covid-safe. As I walked down the corridoor, two people passed me without masks on. Also we were asked to stop and wait in a wide area of the corridoor rather than walking past each other; that wasn't being followed either. FInally on the way home I popped into Morrisons to get some peanuts and there were two ladies inside the foyer standing right next to each other having a chat. It doesn't seem like the increased restrictions elsewhere have made anyone stop and think.



The free range humans have been like that for about 4 months. 

Rule of six generally seems to being followed in the public realm, but with a few big notable exceptions knocking around.


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## Eziemnaik (14 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Spanish doctors go on strike
> https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-...aign=olivepress#utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss


Catalan*


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## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> https://lshubwales.com/news/uks-fir...-mask-manufacturing-facility-set-open-cardiff
> 
> https://www.themanufacturer.com/art...to-produce-ppe-and-equipment-for-nhs-workers/



That's one less problem at least we can make them. 
I know many companies come forward and did some great stuff. They did it without prompting now that needs to be added to already well used process for local and national emergencies. Something which mostly will be recommend "when" we have an inquiry into this whole mess.


----------



## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

Andy Burnham on tv presenting the case for greater manchester and details around tier 3. Finally a local leader saying something useful.


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## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Are there any official estimates of the number of people with long covid?
> 
> If it is rare then it is not a big issue from a population point of view. On the other hand if medical treatment is saving significant numbers of lives you could expect patients to be saved but then experience issues and the numbers involved to be a multiple of the deaths I.e. 40000 x 2 = 8000 plus.


 
Some more papers are due out shortly. Including one which is a study of patients own experience of healthcare. The main issues is primary care pathways are not fully in place and not everyone reporting effects of long covid are being taken seriously. Some are still being told my GP's is nothing to bother about. A lot of work is currently ongoing to implement the new NHS long covid plan. Nice guidelines are also on the way. A number of leads on this have been giving evidence to select committees fro the last few weeks and wheels are moving. On the flip side the longer people are sick, longer they are not able to economically active. Though most will recover in time some may end up with life long chronic illness adding to economic damage in the long run.


----------



## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Andy Burnham on tv presenting the case for greater manchester and details around tier 3. Finally a local leader saying something useful.


Not the best person to be around health issues he's never really fessed up his role in mid staffs. 
All they mostly go on about is we want more money.


----------



## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Some are still being told by GP's is nothing to bother about.



But not really surprising. GPs often say this about flu/respiratory illnesses to patients all winter long with 'long' symptoms. If that's what they are saying to people to illnesses with high percentages of symptoms they aren't going to say it to an illness which has 70% of people show no/'minor' symptoms initially. Covid is of course much more serious than some of these illnesses, however if it happens with those illnesses it's going to happen with covid.


----------



## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Not the best person to be around health issues he's never really fessed up his role in mid staffs.
> All they mostly go on about is we want more money.



The presentation was a monetary presentation. Compared to the complete incompetence of local governing authorities up and down the land it's nice to see someone presenting something coherent for a change. Especially compared to Dan Jarvis.


----------



## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> But not really surprising. GPs often say this about flu/respiratory illnesses to patients all winter long. If that's what they are saying to people to illnesses with high percentages of symptoms they aren't going to say it to an illness which has 70% of people show no/'minor' symptoms initially. Covid is of course much more serious than some of these illnesses, however if it happens with those illnesses it's going to happen with others.


Agreed it's sadly part of the course for many. Me and Mrs73 had a bit of joke the other day as to what GP's are going to say at the moment given they can't really say the standard get out "oh it's virus".


----------



## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> The presentation was a monetary presentation. Compared to the complete incompetence of local governing authorities up and down the land it's nice to see someone presenting something coherent for a change. Especially compared to Dan Jarvis.


Oh yes good old Dan you've never any the wiser with him. One thing he likes though is building roads.


----------



## DaveReading (14 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> That said, Spain appears to be ahead of us again, but it looks like this wave may have already peaked there (deaths now level, cases halving every 16-78 days).



Well that's good to know. I think.


----------



## Edwardoka (14 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Something which mostly will be recommend "when" we have an inquiry into this whole mess.


Prediction: "Sorry, the person with the only copy of the inquiry left the company and deleted the files from his laptop."


----------



## Edwardoka (14 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> So you don't think the selfish spreaders carry _any_ responsibility? Government should be serving us, not parenting us.


Of course selfish spreaders and the "I'm alright Jack" mob carry some blame but in public health crises you have to act on the basis of the least compliant.
Any system that requires you to trust that everyone in a given population will do the right thing is guaranteed to fail.


----------



## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Not the best person to be around health issues he's never really fessed up his role in mid staffs.
> All they mostly go on about is we want more money.


Six weeks after becoming health minister, Burnham ordered a public inquiry into Mid-Staffs that Parliament had refused to order. I'm not sure what else you think his role was?



DaveReading said:


> Well that's good to know. I think.


Note well the use of word "may". With deaths only level, it might just be a blip on the way up even further. It looked like they might have peaked three weeks ago, but it's not fallen yet.  At least it's 3 deaths/M and not the 15-18 seen in the first waves.

In general, I didn't find anywhere far enough on to say for sure they've seen the second wave yet. Most of the possibles are either fairly small, which makes the death rates per million fluctuate a lot, or have reporting that I don't really trust.


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## Joey Shabadoo (14 Oct 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Of course selfish spreaders and the "I'm alright Jack" mob carry some blame but in public health crises you have to act on the basis of the least compliant.
> Any system that requires you to trust that everyone in a given population will do the right thing is guaranteed to fail.



Baton rounds are a useful aide memoire


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## Adam4868 (14 Oct 2020)

It's been like this since lockdown ended here 
https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/trips-blackpool-scotland-causing-covid-19102107


----------



## CanucksTraveller (14 Oct 2020)

Just had a concerned message from a distant great aunt, (let's call her Janice), she's something like 80 and very frail. She's frightened to death of catching Covid because it'll likely be the end of her so if you do see her she insists you stay well away, quite right too. 

Her granddaughter "Ellie" is at Leicester University, where she's apparently been feeling a bit homesick. So Ellie's mother offered to go and get her from Leicester and bring her back home, (they live near me somewhere). The plan was for her to have some time with her Mum to get over being homesick, but she mentioned to her Mum that she also misses "Granny" (Janice), so the Mum suggests that they both go to visit Janice, which they did at the weekend just gone. 
But they don't sit outside, no, they go in, and Ellie and her Mum go giving Janice big hugs all round, Janice says she couldn't say no because she felt bad to insist that Ellie keeps her distance, what with her being homsesick and all. They stayed for over an hour. 

Anyway, you guessed it, on Monday Ellie developed Covid symptoms and is now waiting on a test result. Round of applause for that genius. 
I'm not sure how many red flags she needed to make her stop and think.


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## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

The bringing home for bbqs/family get togethers/visits happened on a mass scale in March/April/May for students at universities so it will be happening now. A lot of the time like at my uni it was supposedly the parents initiating it.


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## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

19,724 new cases today , 137 deaths


----------



## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

Contact tracers are having a lot of their calls blocked on mobile phone and test and trace know this. It's unclear what proportion of this is the people who are getting rung multiple times a day by different contact tracers and other people just blocking it.


----------



## Edwardoka (14 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> 19,724 new cases today , 137 deaths


Hooray! We're back on our way to world-beating status!

Only India have us beat, I'm sure this has nothing to do with us having 4.7% the population they do...


----------



## SpokeyDokey (14 Oct 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Just had a concerned message from a distant great aunt, (let's call her Janice), she's something like 80 and very frail. She's frightened to death of catching Covid because it'll likely be the end of her so if you do see her she insists you stay well away, quite right too.
> 
> Her granddaughter "Ellie" is at Leicester University, where she's apparently been feeling a bit homesick. So Ellie's mother offered to go and get her from Leicester and bring her back home, (they live near me somewhere). The plan was for her to have some time with her Mum to get over being homesick, but she mentioned to her Mum that she also misses "Granny" (Janice), so the Mum suggests that they both go to visit Janice, which they did at the weekend just gone.
> But they don't sit outside, no, they go in, and Ellie and her Mum go giving Janice big hugs all round, Janice says she couldn't say no because she felt bad to insist that Ellie keeps her distance, what with her being homsesick and all. They stayed for over an hour.
> ...



Similar - one very intelligent and rational friend is having his daughter back home from Uni for her birthday in a couple of weeks time - 'come what may'.

He lives in a Tier 2 area. Beyond belief.


----------



## fossyant (14 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> 19,724 new cases today , 137 deaths



Fark, that's not good. It's the death's jumping up again.


----------



## fossyant (14 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Similar - one very intelligent and rational friend is having his daughter back home from Uni for her birthday in a couple of weeks time - 'come what may'.
> 
> He lives in a Tier 2 area. Beyond belief.



Just talking to colleagues today and one or two have said they'd not follow any advice at Christmas and do what they want (Tier 2 area at present).


----------



## fossyant (14 Oct 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Just had a concerned message from a distant great aunt, (let's call her Janice), she's something like 80 and very frail. She's frightened to death of catching Covid because it'll likely be the end of her so if you do see her she insists you stay well away, quite right too.
> 
> Her granddaughter "Ellie" is at Leicester University, where she's apparently been feeling a bit homesick. So Ellie's mother offered to go and get her from Leicester and bring her back home, (they live near me somewhere). The plan was for her to have some time with her Mum to get over being homesick, but she mentioned to her Mum that she also misses "Granny" (Janice), so the Mum suggests that they both go to visit Janice, which they did at the weekend just gone.
> But they don't sit outside, no, they go in, and Ellie and her Mum go giving Janice big hugs all round, Janice says she couldn't say no because she felt bad to insist that Ellie keeps her distance, what with her being homsesick and all. They stayed for over an hour.
> ...



High chance she's potentially hospitalised or killed her gran. FFS.


----------



## alicat (14 Oct 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Just had a concerned message from a distant great aunt, (let's call her Janice), she's something like 80 and very frail. She's frightened to death of catching Covid because it'll likely be the end of her so if you do see her she insists you stay well away, quite right too.
> 
> Her granddaughter "Ellie" is at Leicester University, where she's apparently been feeling a bit homesick. So Ellie's mother offered to go and get her from Leicester and bring her back home, (they live near me somewhere). The plan was for her to have some time with her Mum to get over being homesick, but she mentioned to her Mum that she also misses "Granny" (Janice), so the Mum suggests that they both go to visit Janice, which they did at the weekend just gone.
> But they don't sit outside, no, they go in, and Ellie and her Mum go giving Janice big hugs all round, Janice says she couldn't say no because she felt bad to insist that Ellie keeps her distance, what with her being homsesick and all. They stayed for over an hour.
> ...



And neither of them stopped to think that the grandma didn't need to be worried until the test result was in if she was being cautious anyway.


----------



## fossyant (14 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> The bringing home for bbqs/family get togethers/visits happened on a mass scale in March/April/May for students at universities so it will be happening now. A lot of the time like at my uni it was supposedly the parents initiating it.



We've apparently had around 30% of students leave halls for home (and probably taken covid back as a free gift).


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## Rusty Nails (14 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> They better stay away from their grand parents then !



I keep hearing stuff about how much more socially aware and responsible young people are today, compared to previous generations. How it is the older generations who have cocked things up for the young.

This certainly gives the lie to that spurious argument.

The younger generations are no more or less sensible or responsible than they have ever been, and are capable of cocking things up without any help from the old.


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## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> We've apparently had around 30% of students leave halls for home (and probably taken covid back as a free gift).



In late April/May I was out and about a lot completely on my own walking in parks nearby/passing student housing/accomodation. You could literally see it going on before your eyes seeing cars parking up with parents, the body language, loading stuff out of houses and setting off. It was like a minor version of the weekend before fresher's week/end of year move out at weekends. People posted they'd done it on-line. People told you afterwards. People said oh how is so and so doing, oh don't worry about them they went back to Norwich etc. I'm not sure the media is aware quite how much of this went on.

One of the ones that stuck in my mind was someone I used to volunteer with who in late April went home for a massive family BBQ that had about for a few hours and then travelled back at the end of the weekend back to student housing with 7 other people. I understand they did this family visit 3 times in March, April and May. At the time I was initially aware of one. Apparently some of the other 7 also did the same thing.


----------



## matticus (14 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> "matticus said:
> So you don't think the selfish spreaders carry _any_ responsibility?"
> 
> Wow. What was the basis of thinking the worst of me like that? Of course they do, but we've seen often enough that they're out there. Some are even posting on social media that covid is a hoax or similar. So public policy should adapt to combat them.


I didn't mean to have a dig at you personally - just wanted to point out that "we" (the public) are in this WITH the government; so it's a shared thing, I don't want the farkwits (who I still believe are the minority) to dodge blame by heaping it on our (not very good) current rulers.


----------



## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> I didn't mean to have a dig at you personally - just wanted to point out that "we" (the public) are in this WITH the government; so it's a shared thing, I don't want the farkwits (who I still believe are the minority) to dodge blame by heaping it on our (not very good) current rulers.


And I don't want our current government to dodge blame by heaping it on the farkwits. There are always farkwits. Stopping farkwits killing your population needlessly in predictable ways seems like one of the most basic tasks of a government.


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## Edwardoka (14 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> There are always farkwits.


Lots and lots of farkwits, as it happens:


View: https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1316392156559552512

The country is full of people who have completely lost touch with reality.

Although (he hastens to add), it's important to remember that social media isn't representative of reality.


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## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I keep hearing stuff about how much more socially aware and responsible young people are today, compared to previous generations. How it is the older generations who have cocked things up for the young.



The rule of six just means, rather like Whitty and others indirectly commented on the last few days that substantial mixing is still going on in households, outdoors in close proximity and indoors in private venues. It's just the numbers are down from lots of 10s/12s to 6 or pretending to be 6. Outdoors there are still loads of activities going on with people in 15s/18s etc not keeping any distance. I see them all the time. All of that means R above 1 and the situation we're in with about 15,000+ cases per day.


----------



## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> Fark, that's not good. It's the death's jumping up again.


No-one seems to have told the death toll that the rising case numbers over the last few weeks "are nothing more than scaremongering nonsense drawn up by number crunching geeks"...


----------



## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Contact tracers are having a lot of their calls blocked on mobile phone and test and trace know this. It's unclear what proportion of this is the people who are getting rung multiple times a day by different contact tracers and other people just blocking it.


I answered a call from 0300 013 5000 (which is NHS Trace's advertised number) this morning. It was an automated message telling me I need to press 2 to speak to an operator about renewing my vehicle's extended warranty (I don't have one).

If I didn't know enough to search the web for that number before pressing "block", I wouldn't know it's used by NHS Trace. I guess the scammer/spammers are using it because they feel people are more likely to pick up than "Private number".


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## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> I answered a call from 0300 013 5000 (which is NHS Trace's advertised number) this morning. It was an automated message telling me I need to press 2 to speak to an operator about renewing my vehicle's extended warranty (I don't have one).
> 
> If I didn't know enough to search the web for that number before pressing "block", I wouldn't know it's used by NHS Trace. I guess the scammer/spammers are using it because they feel people are more likely to pick up than "Private number".



There was a piece in student halls about people getting rung 4-5 times a day by contact tracers giving them different dates to self isolate.

The contact tracer I know has now had enough and is no longer doing overtime even at 13 quid an hour and just doing their normal hours. Their team are having a lot of 'grumpy' people saying they've been rung up multiple times and please leave them alone they've already been isolating for x days already. And blocked numbers.

There are a lot of other scams going around at the moment.


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## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Janice says she couldn't say no because she felt bad to insist [...]


Then I'm sorry but as well as "Ellie" and her mum being stupid, "Janice" made her choice too: she could have said no but put "Ellie"'s feelings above her own life.

We've got to get over this fear of hurting people's feelings by telling them to stop being farking stupid and taking chances with this virus and our lives — but maybe that's easier for me to say because I've always been blunt so my family would probably expect it.


----------



## Rusty Nails (14 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> The rule of six just means, rather like Whitty and others indirectly commented on the last few days that substantial mixing is still going on in households, outdoors in close proximity and indoors in private venues. It's just the numbers are down from lots of 10s/12s to 6 or pretending to be 6. Outdoors there are still loads of activities going on with people in 15s/18s etc not keeping any distance. I see them all the time. All of that means R above 1 and the situation we're in with about 15,000+ cases per day.



You missed the bit where I said: "_The younger generations are no more or less sensible or responsible than they have ever been, and are capable of cocking things up without any help from the old_."

I thought that most confirmed cases were among the younger age groups at the moment. That said, all age groups bear a level of responsibility for spreading the virus.


----------



## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I thought that most confirmed cases were among the younger age groups at the moment. That said, all age groups bear a level of responsibility for spreading the virus.



Sadly very little difference in infection rates between someone who is 30 and someone who is 59 in the bad areas here - North West, North East and Yorkshire and Humberside. The 10-19 and 20-29 infection rates are quite a lot higher. Scarily in the north East the infections in 80+s isn't that different to 30-59. This was in The Whitty's presentation. Until about 25th September the rates for 'young' age groups weren't that different. It's very bad in all age groups except under 10s and very, very, very bad 10-29.


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## Ming the Merciless (14 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> There was a piece in student halls about people getting rung 4-5 times a day by contact tracers giving them different dates to self isolate.
> 
> The contact tracer I know has now had enough and is no longer doing overtime even at 13 quid an hour and just doing their normal hours. Their team are having a lot of 'grumpy' people saying they've been rung up multiple times and please leave them alone they've already been isolating for x days already. And blocked numbers.
> 
> There are a lot of other scams going around at the moment.



But how can that be? They have a master spreadsheet to record who has been called.😉


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## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> But how can that be? They have a master spreadsheet to record who has been called.😉



I believe it is happening to some people. If it continues, I'm sure someone will get to the bottom of the why because it is wasting a lot of time now and the calls have massively ramped up.


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## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

Anyone who still believes all this mask wearing is pointless.
Explain this one even with all measures in place this happens. It’s only possible if it’s airborne transmission.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/13/world/spinco-canada-covid-19-outbreak-trnd/index.html
one case leading to 61.


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## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone who still believes all this mask wearing is pointless.
> Explain this one even with all measures in place this happens. It’s only possible if it’s airborne transmission.
> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/13/world/spinco-canada-covid-19-outbreak-trnd/index.html
> one case leading to 61.


I don't think it's "only possible" for sure, as maybe everyone was sweatily touching the same door handles or lockers, or maybe their laundry screwed up and cross-contaminated towels instead of cleaning them, but airborne transmission in an enclosed space certainly seems the most likely.

I also doubt mask-wearing would have prevented that completely, either. 61 cases from one suggests it was a pretty virulent breeding ground and cloth masks aren't completely effective. It might only have reduced it.

It's a difficult question: must some gyms (and probably other businesses) be closed and either bailed out or bankrupted in order to control the virus?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (14 Oct 2020)

I’m reposting my earlier question as I fear it may have been considered rhetorical but I really would like to know the answer...



glasgowcyclist said:


> Does immunity from the effects of Covid also confer immunity from being a vector of transmission?


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## mjr (14 Oct 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Does immunity from the effects of Covid also confer immunity from being a vector of transmission?


Not if by "immunity from the effects" you mean they display no symptoms — strictly speaking, you could argue that being a vector of transmission is one of the effects.

For examples, see the gym case above where "patient zero displayed no symptoms", or maybe the asymptomatic riders at the Vuelta although time may tell on that.

Asymptomatic spreaders may be less effective spreaders because they're not coughing virus particles out over such a wide area.


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## Oldhippy (14 Oct 2020)

I'm trying to avoid going on this thread but as with others on it I am gobsmacked that some people are under the delusion that the government can somehow in king Canute fashion, hold the virus at bay with some policy or other! It is a viral infection and does not abide by our rules. It's a gene pool thing, it is established that it is contagious and crosses all ages. It hasn't been around long enough to make long term predictions as yet. It is incredibly unfortunate that businesses and jobs are in danger but this one virus has the potential to change social structure as we currently know it. If we don't adapt we suffer more and these di*ks that go on binges or just carry on as normal before the next shutdown are merely providing fuel for the next round. Lunacy. We ain't that smart as a species and just need to think differently, adapt and adapt again. Easy to say and hard to do but if we don't we could be screwed in so many ways all because we wanted dinner out or went to bloody sports games because we have a right.


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## classic33 (14 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Contact tracers are having a lot of their calls blocked on mobile phone and test and trace know this. It's unclear what proportion of this is the people who are getting rung multiple times a day by different contact tracers and other people just blocking it.


Or they're using an 0843/0844 number, both of which are currently in use by scam callers. 

There's a scam going round where your phone rings briefly, leaving a missed call from a number unknown to you. To check who called costs between £5 & £15 per minute, or part there of.


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## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I’m reposting my earlier question as I fear it may have been considered rhetorical but I really would like to know the answer...


Yes is the simple answer diseases we know about it can happen.


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## glasgowcyclist (14 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Not if by "immunity from the effects" you mean they display no symptoms



By that I meant immune from suffering from it. Just because you yourself can’t catch it, does that prevent you from harbouring and spreading it?


----------



## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I’m reposting my earlier question as I fear it may have been considered rhetorical but I really would like to know the answer...



For a while the leading paper was based on four macaques. Don't know now. Macaques based on this tiny sample said they could still pass it on.


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## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

Business required to close under tier 3 in Liverpool are openly refusing to close and continue to trade. 
This will not well


----------



## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> I don't think it's "only possible" for sure, as maybe everyone was sweatily touching the same door handles or lockers, or maybe their laundry screwed up and cross-contaminated towels instead of cleaning them, but airborne transmission in an enclosed space certainly seems the most likely.
> 
> I also doubt mask-wearing would have prevented that completely, either. 61 cases from one suggests it was a pretty virulent breeding ground and cloth masks aren't completely effective. It might only have reduced it.
> 
> It's a difficult question: must some gyms (and probably other businesses) be closed and either bailed out or bankrupted in order to control the virus?


All of which has been looked into by public health. My point is not that mask will prevent it but that evidence to support mass public wearing of them is not in question ie as source control. Most of the measures that many focus on all assume it’s not airborne. The same arguments happen with measles. Given the type of activity in a confined space. It’s too difficult to infect a wide number of people.


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## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> By that I meant immune from suffering from it. Just because you yourself can’t catch it, does that prevent you from harbouring and spreading it?



Also worth noting that although it sounds like complete jiggery pokery nasal sprays to limit infection are being worked on. Ironic if it works, having been asked all winter about tatt in pharmacies for nasal sprays that mostly make little difference one ends up saving the world!


----------



## tom73 (14 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Also worth noting that although it sounds like complete jiggery pokery nasal sprays to limit infection are being worked on. Ironic if it works, having been asked all winter about tatt in pharmacies for nasal sprays that mostly make little difference one ends up saving the world!


Thought they’d quietly left the room that idea came out early on I’m sure I’ve read something. Can’t see any lasting long enough to be worth it.


----------



## mjr (14 Oct 2020)




----------



## Rusty Nails (14 Oct 2020)

I thought @marinyork was talking about nasal sprays being developed that may be more than just saline solutions.


----------



## marinyork (14 Oct 2020)

INNA-051. Releases cytokines in the nasal cavity.


----------



## tom73 (15 Oct 2020)

To counter act the herd immunity brigade. 
The John Snow Memorandum has been launched they are calling for all Scientists, health professionals, public health researchers, students ect to sign up. Unlike "The Great Barrington Declaration" detail are check before they add you. 
https://www.johnsnowmemo.com
So get the word out and help some real science get air time.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Oct 2020)

Right, the Covid-19 infection app has shown the number of active cases in my borough as falling....





...so what a brilliant time to move us up into Tier 2! The ''justification'' for this is that local rather than national measures are best. Also, cases are rising in west London. Which of course is not local. And London has the population of a smallish European country.


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## fossyant (15 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Right, the Covid-19 infection app has shown the number of active cases in my borough as falling....
> View attachment 552549
> 
> 
> ...so what a brilliant time to move us up into Tier 2! The ''justification'' for this is that local rather than national measures are best. Also, cases are rising in west London. Which of course is not local. And London has the population of a smallish European country.



The North went into higher lockdown in July, with figures a fraction of these... Tier 2 justified, but late - should have happened weeks ago. 







Manchester looking Like Tier 3 shortly, why did the Government not do Tier 3 with Liverpool - what was the point. That mini-turkey looking likely for Christmas.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> The North went into higher lockdown in July, with figures a fraction of these... Tier 2 justified, but late - should have happened weeks ago.
> 
> 
> View attachment 552550
> ...


My point is that, while the local situation is bad, it is not deteriorating and is actually better than it was when the tier nonsense began. There is no local justification for changing here from tier 1 to tier 2.


----------



## matticus (15 Oct 2020)

How good is Deptford's border control?


----------



## fossyant (15 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> My point is that, while the local situation is bad, it is not deteriorating and is actually better than it was when the tier nonsense began. There is no local justification for changing here from tier 1 to tier 2.



Welcome to our world 'oop North' My area is still the lowest in GM. But we all got locked down in July, then my area had a very brief reprise, then they said whole area again. Unfortunately, 'justification' isn't part of the Government's reasoning. You've been lucky in London area as Boris' has been keeping his mates happy.


----------



## marinyork (15 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Then I'm sorry but as well as "Ellie" and her mum being stupid, "Janice" made her choice too: she could have said no but put "Ellie"'s feelings above her own life.
> 
> We've got to get over this fear of hurting people's feelings by telling them to stop being farking stupid and taking chances with this virus and our lives — but maybe that's easier for me to say because I've always been blunt so my family would probably expect it.



There are too many pushy people. There are far too many tossers in the world, we don't possibly need any more. We need more Janices and need them to survive this.


----------



## classic33 (15 Oct 2020)

Half the country to be under stricter restrictions from Saturday. 
London lockdown seems likely.


----------



## matticus (15 Oct 2020)

I think some of you here are underestimating how serious the situation is now. Luckily the Daily Mirror is on hand:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...oses-border/ar-BB1a3bcK?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=wispr


----------



## Mo1959 (15 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> I think some of you here are underestimating how serious the situation is now. Luckily the Daily Mirror is on hand:
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...oses-border/ar-BB1a3bcK?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=wispr


Wonder if I should burst her bubble completely and tell her I can't stand these programmes!


----------



## pawl (15 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Half the country to be under stricter restrictions from Saturday.
> London lockdown seems likely.




London now confirmed from Saturday


----------



## tom73 (15 Oct 2020)

Who thought involving yet another layer of elected clowns would make time critical public health innervations quicker and easier ?
So now we have government ... ummm ,ummmm, maybe we need to do something. Think Sage sent us a memo (go off and rummage in the bin) Great found what's it say ? ...... FFS do something. 
Local mayors ..... Oh no you don't not on our watch. 
Councils .... Think we have a problem , Government and local mayors ....go away we are handling this. 
Now look it's your fault , no it's not it's your fault oh no it's not , yes it is , we want more money , you can't have any , why not, because oh by the way we will just do want we want anyway, oh ok well we are still going to sulk because we want to do it. 
Ok you can Push this big red button. Oh what's it do ? It makes it look like we are all going something. Oh great now let's vote on who pushers it. Oh FFS when you work it came back and let us know
Mr Covid .... carry on boys this is such an easy gig it's like money for old rope.


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## deptfordmarmoset (15 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> How good is Deptford's border control?


Broadly comparable with the Schengen border controls.


----------



## pawl (15 Oct 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Wonder if I should burst her bubble completely and tell her I can't stand these programmes!




You can add me to the list.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Oct 2020)

Covid's hit the caramel chocolate brownies in Quality Street! https://www.theguardian.com/busines...rites-missing-as-covid-19-disrupts-production


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## tom73 (15 Oct 2020)

Government guidance updated now includes Long covid 
COVID-19: epidemiology, virology and clinical features
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ology-and-clinical-features#clinical-features


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## classic33 (15 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Covid's hit the caramel chocolate brownies in Quality Street! https://www.theguardian.com/busines...rites-missing-as-covid-19-disrupts-production


Made not far from here. For now!


----------



## mjr (15 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Who thought involving yet another layer of elected clowns would make time critical public health innervations quicker and easier ? [...]


I really don't think that's the problem. If there was clear division of responsibilities, then it could be TEAM = "Together Everyone Achieves More"... but the split between NHS (national-led) and public health (county/region-led) was never clear since it was last reformed by Cameron in 2012, with the national-local split being resettable each year in a letter from the health minister. That's no way to run a long-term service.

At the start of this pandemic back in April, gov.uk really messed with the local-national split, basically giving Public Health England a far bigger role and chopping the legs off local public health directorates, who understandably tried to stand their ground despite no longer having legs, while PHE could point at their growth pains and the lack of local cooperation, and so it became TEAM = "Terrific! Everyone Avoids Monitoring!" 

Again, look at Germany. I think they've as many elected politicians involved as any layer of England and there have been some grumbles about the local differences early on, but by and large, the communities, states and federal government seem to have worked well together and avoided getting in each others' way. Maybe @Unkraut and @Andy in Germany will now correct me and say there's been blazing turf wars screwing things up, but it doesn't seem to have been on their TV news much!


----------



## fossyant (15 Oct 2020)

It's like the Hokey Cokey up in Gtr Manchester this afternoon. Oh Teir 3, teir 3, teir 3....... in, out, shake it all about.


----------



## stowie (15 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> I think some of you here are underestimating how serious the situation is now. Luckily the Daily Mirror is on hand:
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...oses-border/ar-BB1a3bcK?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=wispr



Hang about... wasn't this show supposed to be about celebrities pitting their skills in a remote jungle or something? And this is now going to be located in Wales? I mean, I am sure it will be exciting to see if the celebrities will be able to manage the 6 mile journey from the castle to Rhyl McDonalds, but it just doesn't seem to have the same air of adventure as the Australian Jungle.

And they may have to relocate again? Where to? Basildon? Maybe they could locate to Milton Keynes and challenge the celebrities to navigate successfully through the bike paths without going round and round in circles. Because I never managed it....


----------



## Wobblers (15 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I keep hearing stuff about how much more socially aware and responsible young people are today, compared to previous generations. How it is the older generations who have cocked things up for the young.
> 
> This certainly gives the lie to that spurious argument.
> 
> The younger generations are no more or less sensible or responsible than they have ever been, and are capable of cocking things up without any help from the old.



It's quite wrong to assume that this sort of behaviour is limited to the young. I've seen no shortage of older people acting similarly - for that matter I'm still seeing lots of social visits to the houses around here - when all indoors mixing between households has been banned. Again, that's something that all demographics are indulging in. The resurgence in CV19 can't be blamed on just the young - or indeed on any single group.


----------



## fossyant (15 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> Hang about... wasn't this show supposed to be about celebrities pitting their skills in a remote jungle or something? And this is now going to be located in Wales? I mean, I am sure it will be exciting to see if the celebrities will be able to manage the 6 mile journey from the castle to Rhyl McDonalds, but it just doesn't seem to have the same air of adventure as the Australian Jungle.
> 
> And they may have to relocate again? Where to? Basildon? Maybe they could locate to Milton Keynes and challenge the celebrities to navigate successfully through the bike paths without going round and round in circles. Because I never managed it....



They won't survive a trip to Rhyl McDonalds - they will die of food poisoning. Vile filthy store. I have unfortunately been once.


----------



## mjr (15 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> Maybe they could locate to Milton Keynes and challenge the celebrities to navigate successfully through the bike paths without going round and round in circles. Because I never managed it....


Milton Keynes's redways make perfect sense: you just need to remember that the Horizontal routes run SW-NE and the Vertical routes run NW-SE, both at roughly 1km spacing, but only the even numbers have redways alongside, plus Horiztonal 5, H9, V7, V11 and the "high" end of H7, and there's a gap in V10 between H9 and H10 and the grid sort of squashes into where V5 should be where it doesn't exist higher than H4, while National 51 follows H8 and National 6 follows V6, except both National routes have huge kinks in them so they visit the city centre near (H5,V7) and Sustrans can say all the city is within 3 miles of the NCN.

Oh and then there's the 1970s network of routes which failed because they're too slow and convoluted to ride, that meander roughly halfway between most of the 1km grid of fast motor roads and join up the district centres directly but are basically impossible to navigate unless you know the names of the district centres that you'll pass through and no-one has spun or stolen a route sign... or you have a map...

No, you're right, it's madness and I'd probably not find my way around if I hadn't grown up riding into it! I bet they're not giving redway directions to the covid test centres!


----------



## tom73 (15 Oct 2020)

Sounds like even the labs testing for covid are not even covid secure.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54552620


----------



## stowie (15 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Milton Keynes's redways make perfect sense: you just need to remember that the Horizontal routes run SW-NE and the Vertical routes run NW-SE, both at roughly 1km spacing, but only the even numbers have redways alongside, plus Horiztonal 5, H9, V7, V11 and the "high" end of H7, and there's a gap in V10 between H9 and H10 and the grid sort of squashes into where V5 should be where it doesn't exist higher than H4, while National 51 follows H8 and National 6 follows V6, except both National routes have huge kinks in them so they visit the city centre near (H5,V7) and Sustrans can say all the city is within 3 miles of the NCN.
> 
> Oh and then there's the 1970s network of routes which failed because they're too slow and convoluted to ride, that meander roughly halfway between most of the 1km grid of fast motor roads and join up the district centres directly but are basically impossible to navigate unless you know the names of the district centres that you'll pass through and no-one has spun or stolen a route sign... or you have a map...
> 
> No, you're right, it's madness and I'd probably not find my way around if I hadn't grown up riding into it! I bet they're not giving redway directions to the covid test centres!



I used to get the train to MK Central and then hire one of those share bikes to get to an office there. Around 3 miles by car. First time I did it, I looked at my google timeline and I had basically just circled the office for about half an hour. The only things that seemed signposted with any degree of accuracy were "local shops". "Local shops but farking where?" I would shout into the void. Still, useful to know where to get energy drinks so I didn't dehydrate as I did laps around MK.


----------



## PK99 (15 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> I used to get the train to MK Central and then hire one of those share bikes to get to an office there. Around 3 miles by car. First time I did it, I looked at my google timeline and I had basically just circled the office for about half an hour. The only things that seemed signposted with any degree of accuracy were "local shops". "Local shops but farking where?" I would shout into the void. Still, useful to know where to get energy drinks so I didn't dehydrate as I did laps around MK.



This section of this thread is hereby awarded the CycleChat Annual Award for Most Creative Thread Diversion


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Oct 2020)

PK99 said:


> This section of this thread is hereby awarded the CycleChat Annual Award for Most Creative Thread Diversion


I don't know though. Getting lost in the UK could become a hot topic: Johnson appears to be losing the whole country bit by bit.


----------



## stowie (15 Oct 2020)

PK99 said:


> This section of this thread is hereby awarded the CycleChat Annual Award for Most Creative Thread Diversion



Thank you very much for the award. I am very touched. I would like thank my wife, my daughter, my parents, and my agent.

I will derail no longer.


----------



## stowie (15 Oct 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Just had a concerned message from a distant great aunt, (let's call her Janice), she's something like 80 and very frail. She's frightened to death of catching Covid because it'll likely be the end of her so if you do see her she insists you stay well away, quite right too.
> 
> Her granddaughter "Ellie" is at Leicester University, where she's apparently been feeling a bit homesick. So Ellie's mother offered to go and get her from Leicester and bring her back home, (they live near me somewhere). The plan was for her to have some time with her Mum to get over being homesick, but she mentioned to her Mum that she also misses "Granny" (Janice), so the Mum suggests that they both go to visit Janice, which they did at the weekend just gone.
> But they don't sit outside, no, they go in, and Ellie and her Mum go giving Janice big hugs all round, Janice says she couldn't say no because she felt bad to insist that Ellie keeps her distance, what with her being homsesick and all. They stayed for over an hour.
> ...



This is heartbreaking. I hope the test comes back negative.

It would be easy to say that Janice should know better (and taken as read that Ellie and Ellie's mother should know better). But if you are 80 and living alone, the sense of isolation must be huge during this time. I can easily see why Janice would take a risk.


----------



## mjr (15 Oct 2020)

Tiers of a Clown / Three Tiers and 57'000 Funerals

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1315905784534962186


----------



## Rusty Nails (15 Oct 2020)

McWobble said:


> It's quite wrong to assume that this sort of behaviour is limited to the young. I've seen no shortage of older people acting similarly - for that matter I'm still seeing lots of social visits to the houses around here - when all indoors mixing between households has been banned. Again, that's something that all demographics are indulging in. The resurgence in CV19 can't be blamed on just the young - or indeed on any single group.



I have read in various sources that the resurgence in the past month or more has hit different age groups at different levels, with the highest increase for those aged 16-29 years. 

It is now starting to hit older age groups. We literally are all in this together.

I don't asume that only the young behave badly, but I don't see many examples of people in their 50s/60s/70s dancing in the streets outside pubs and clubs like those in the video shown, so that sort of specific behaviour is mostly limited to the young.

Yes, there are idiots of all ages getting together in groups that risk spreading the virus. Older people just do it in different ways. 

Nowhere in my post did I attribute blame to any age group, just made an observation that there is nothing morally or socially special about this generation of young compared to the present older generation or previous generations of young people. As a boomer, who is used to being blamed for many of the countries recent problems I couldn't resist the cynical/sarcastic response.


----------



## mjr (15 Oct 2020)

Tracing hits a new low of 58% of contacts reached. Complaint on TV from one family getting 36 calls about the same two positives!


----------



## Rusty Nails (15 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Tracing hits a new low of 58% of contacts reached. Complaint on TV from one family getting 36 calls about the same two positives!



Just imagine how much worse it would have been if Hancock/Dido Harding hadn't been in charge of implementing and managing it.


----------



## stowie (15 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Just imagine how much worse it would have been if Hancock/Dido Harding hadn't been in charge of implementing and managing it.



We do have to approach life with a "glass half full" attitude. It could have been Chris Grayling in charge.


----------



## stowie (15 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Tiers of a Clown / Three Tiers and 57'000 Funerals
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1315905784534962186




I have seen the phrase used "It will all end in tiers" and the one I really liked - "Fears for Tiers".

The BBC explain the Tier system using a wedding cake graphic and actual slices of cake. It at times like this that I realise humankind is doomed.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (15 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> We do have to approach life with a "glass half full" attitude. It could have been Chris Grayling in charge.



Has the track and trace contract been awarded to a ferry company?


----------



## mjr (15 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Has the track and trace contract been awarded to a ferry company?


Well, they certainly look to be all at sea and out of their depth!


----------



## Ming the Merciless (15 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Well, they certainly look to be all at sea and out of their depth!



Coronaberg


----------



## stowie (15 Oct 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Has the track and trace contract been awarded to a ferry company?



It would have to be a ferry company with no ferries and only an operating license for the village pond at Coton-in-the-Elms.


----------



## Unkraut (15 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Again, look at Germany. I think they've as many elected politicians involved as any layer of England and there have been some grumbles about the local differences early on, but by and large, the communities, states and federal government seem to have worked well together and avoided getting in each others' way.


It's been somewhat amusing to see how jealously the states/Länder guard their responsibilities as opposed to those of the federal govt, which is national policy. By and large they have been able to agree a united policy amongst all 16, though with different rates in different parts of the country this is getting a bit harder. This factor obviously goes against a one size fits all policy. It's been good to see the party political aspect fade into the background and so many political hues work together, but I do think the cooperation, like everyone's nerves, is starting to get a bit frayed round the edges. The question of how much a general lockdown should be introduced again is getting contentious in view of the longer term economic damage.

Listening to the news coming back from Frankfurt today an attempt to prevent people from who come from hotspot areas from staying in or travelling to other parts of the country has been overturned in court, as the this was considered an infringement of the constitutional guarantee to freedom of movement. It cannot be appealed either. It does show the value of a written constitution for times like these, the govt has temporarily suspended several freedoms guaranteed under the constitution under an emergency health law, but it can be challenged in court on this and has to prove any measures are actually necessary or commensurate. Helps stop govt overreach.


----------



## tom73 (16 Oct 2020)

At long last it's been published the BMJ has now published it. 
Classification of aerosol-generating procedures: a rapid systematic review
https://bmjopenrespres.bmj.com/content/bmjresp/7/1/e000730.full.pdf
@midlife maybe of help


----------



## mjr (16 Oct 2020)

A third of French people are now living under a curfew from 9pm to 6am, affecting a dozen or so of the biggest cities.


----------



## tom73 (16 Oct 2020)

Look's like we can cross off Remdesivir from the list covid drug treatments. 
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1.full.pdf


----------



## marinyork (16 Oct 2020)

Boris et al. are making promises on testing again.

300,000 test capacity has been around for ages with promises of 500,000 per day without an explanation as to where the extra 200,000 per day will appear from in the next couple of weeks.


----------



## tom73 (16 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Boris et al. are making promises on testing again.
> 
> 300,000 test capacity has been around for ages with promises of 500,000 per day without an explanation as the extra 200,000 per day will appear in the next couple of days.



It's these magic "new" rapid test kits to the rescue. Not sure if they are same one's we got told was the way or some new ones that Boris has found at the back of Dido's filing cabinet. 
Still no plan and still not got a clue in the mean time i've been informed our local ICU is now full all covid. Won't be long before that back tacks all way down to the line.


----------



## marinyork (16 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's these magic "new" rapid test kits to the rescue. Not sure if they are same one's we got told was the way or some new ones that Boris has found at the back of Dido's filing cabinet.
> Still no plan and still not got a clue in the mean time i've been informed our local ICU is now full all covid. Won't be long before that back tacks all way down to the line.



Trial. And if they are lucky as they said there's enough for hospital staff and care workers then schools and universities. Which there won't be sadly.


----------



## tom73 (17 Oct 2020)

Last night guidance on what can be done with covid test information was updated. Police can now get access to details of anyone told to isolate. Not only pretty unethical it’s yet another way to put even more people of getting testing. Won’t do much for race relations either given the high number of minorities effected by covid. This is going to play right into the hands of the anti brigade. 

Whitty is not too impressed about the idea either.

“The [CMO’s office] are worried that people will simply stop getting tested because it just opens them up to the risk of being tracked by police and fined, and so the department is creating a strong disincentive to testing, which creates a big public health risk.”

https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/exclusiv...old-to-self-isolate/7028653.article?adredir=1


----------



## Adam4868 (17 Oct 2020)

Patronizing bollox ! Might aswell just say we're doing allright down here,so please just feck the north for now.

View: https://twitter.com/JeromeMayhew/status/1317537385832394753?s=19


----------



## stowie (17 Oct 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Patronizing bollox ! Might aswell just say we're doing allright down here,so please just feck the north for now.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/JeromeMayhew/status/1317537385832394753?s=19




In other words "please ignore what the government's own scientific advisors are saying and trust Boris instead". Right.

Are all the signatories Tory MPs?


----------



## DaveReading (18 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> Are all the signatories Tory MPs?



If only there was an easy way to find that out ...


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Oct 2020)

Sharing NHS data with the police! This does nothing to lessen my feeling that the NHS bit of NHS test and trace is nothing but instrumentalisation. A brand reappropriated.


----------



## tom73 (18 Oct 2020)

So until this becomes a southern problem it’s not worth doing anything. Cut of the north and covid will stay away. What a good idea even better idea build a wall. Think Donald can even send them the plans. 
They will soon change tack if they or someone close need's a ICU bed. As ICU beds are all one big UK wide system they may find the only one free now is "up north" but due to covid it's now taken. 
It's easy for them and rest of them who are faffing about playing political games. They aren't the ones who will quite quickly have to start making some real hard life or death decisions and have to call relatives. Telling them a loved one will die without them being with them.


----------



## fossyant (18 Oct 2020)

Boris has to stop playing games and listen. It's not that GM hasn't agreed to Tier 3, they need more funding to protect jobs, which is fair enough. TBH I know many of us are still keeping well clear of others, and have been for months.


----------



## tom73 (18 Oct 2020)

Andy need's to stop playing games too yes funding is needed, it need's to the fair and truly targeted at ones who really need help. Many have not even had any since this all started last time.It's also not just about money but what you do with it and what other interventions you can do. I really don't care which colour the clowns are I just wish they'd get out the big top and do something. Andy Burnham is not the best person with health matters he was hopeless health sec. Mid Staff's was on his watch the longer this go's on Mid Staff's situation will become the norm. I'm not in GM area but even here my local hospital now has no ICU beds.


----------



## Adam4868 (18 Oct 2020)

Saying Burnham was a useless health secretary is in what way relevant now ?Johnson/Cummings will pile the pressure on Andy Burnham.Not a mention that there's plenty of northern Tory mps against this.All he's asking for is some proper support,people still have rents to pay and food to buy.As he said a "I'm allright Jack" letter from 20 Tory MPs somehow doesn't cut it.


----------



## Adam4868 (18 Oct 2020)

Painful to watch this turd.

View: https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1317760236846043137?s=19


----------



## tom73 (18 Oct 2020)

Totally agree it doesn't cut it and support has to come none of this should have been political. The current situation don't play to the normal political norms. But going what's right at the right time. Sadly that penny never dropped. Like I say I don't care with lot do things they just need to get on with it. As the current situation is a public health matter I'd say it is all part of it he never had a clue then and look's to have little now. Other than fighting for more help and support to ones in need. The problem is as at the same all this happening the same people are in need of help right now.


----------



## tom73 (18 Oct 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Painful to watch this turd.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1317760236846043137?s=19



Just when you though he'd gone away he's not been about for awhile.


----------



## Adam4868 (18 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Just when you though he'd gone away he's not been about for awhile.


He makes my skin crawl....and that's me trying to be nice.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Oct 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> He makes my skin crawl....and that's me trying to be nice.


Lewis Carroll tried to warn us about the Slithy Gove but accidentally hit the letter above G.


----------



## MartinQ (18 Oct 2020)

Well despite trying to follow Mr Kilmisters advice 

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVFJrOlwdkw&app=desktop

I'm officially down with the lurg. Try and stay safe guys.


----------



## oldwheels (18 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> So until this becomes a southern problem it’s not worth doing anything. Cut of the north and covid will stay away. What a good idea even better idea build a wall. Think Donald can even send them the plans.
> They will soon change tack if they or someone close need's a ICU bed. As ICU beds are all one big UK wide system they may find the only one free now is "up north" but due to covid it's now taken.
> It's easy for them and rest of them who are faffing about playing political games. They aren't the ones who will quite quickly have to start making some real hard life or death decisions and have to call relatives. Telling them a loved one will die without them being with them.


When you say ICU beds are all one big UK system do you mean that or do you mean England wide as our NHS in Scotland and also Wales I think are separate?


----------



## marinyork (18 Oct 2020)

The scientists are hitting Sunday tv doing good cop, bad cop routine. Playing up that various other studies, modelling are saying around 50,000 infections per day and on the other hand talking about vaccines and monoclonal antibodies available early in 2021.


----------



## tom73 (18 Oct 2020)

Maybe the NHS is now such a massive patch work quilt of a mess it's hard to keep up. Some historic much sadly due to political fun and games. Though most of the day to day management stuff is separate. Some things still cooperate with each other no one is going to turn down a request for a ICU bed or Peds ICU. Much of critical care capacity is seen as one system and coordinated that way. Some people may live in one area but served by different one. Which may be the online with a bed or offers that service.


----------



## tom73 (18 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> The scientists are hitting Sunday tv doing good cop, bad cop routine. Playing up that various other studies, modelling are saying around 50,000 infections per day and on the other hand talking about vaccines and monoclonal antibodies available early in 2021.



It look's like even most of the main stream media are happy to play along. The amount of air time they filling in favour of the anti bunch is getting worrying. Fact's or even having credible qualified scientists has gone out the window.


----------



## PK99 (18 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Sharing NHS data with the police! This does nothing to lessen my feeling that the NHS bit of NHS test and trace is nothing but instrumentalisation. A brand reappropriated.



This is why very early in this thread I said that Track and Trace could not work in the UK as it was doing in China, South Korea and Taiwan.

In those countries T&T was imposed with the full force of State their militarised police forces.

Here, civil liberties trump all other considerations.

The Chinese do what they are allowed or told to do. We do as we wish. Hence the late rush to the pub and ignoring rules re groups.

We saw Anti mask rallies in Trafalgar square.
What would have been the Chinese response to an anti mask rally in Tiananmen Square?


----------



## Edwardoka (18 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Sharing NHS data with the police! This does nothing to lessen my feeling that the NHS bit of NHS test and trace is nothing but instrumentalisation. A brand reappropriated.


It's ok, let me put your fears to bed.


I mean, this isn't the test and trace app, but who wouldn't want to personally enrich the Camerons?


----------



## mjr (18 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Andy Burnham is not the best person with health matters he was hopeless health sec. Mid Staff's was on his watch


That wasn't true the last time you posted it and it's still not.


----------



## MarkF (18 Oct 2020)

I do wish that middle age doctors/professors/scientists with long and distinguished careers behind them, wouldn't be censored so much, it's diffcult to keep up. No wonder we are in such a mess and testing (pointlessly) perfectly healthy people in the search for a second wave to perpetuate what is now, a colossal fraud. A while ago I'd have accepted that the goverments response was (just about) understandabe, but not now, I hope some (Hancock, Whitty & Vallance for starters) face criminal prosecutions, they have deliberately misled people and wilfully caused so much damage, they have to be held to account.

I was going to link to a blistering article by Dr Mike Yeadon aimed at Chris Whitty (who's been refusing to acknowledge any questions for months), I read it this morning, now it's gone, I am surprised he still has a Twitter account....for now.

The NHS is not going to be overwhelmed, nor come anywhere near to be being so. There's been no excess deaths for nearly 4 months, no second wave will occur no matter how hard the government tries to find one and (generally) admissions are totally different to what they were in Spring. Admissions v discharges?


----------



## Julia9054 (18 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> There's been no excess deaths for nearly 4 months,


Excess deaths for week ending 2nd October 4.2% higher than previous 5 year average.
Edit: England and Wales


----------



## tom73 (18 Oct 2020)

Distinguished like the same ones who signed The Great Barrington Declaration ?
Charged under which law and by who ? 
As it has been explained many times it's not as simple as admissions v discharge. (what ever the latter means is debatable) Or deaths today or the next as the ones we are seeing now are not due to cases now but from a weeks before.


----------



## IaninSheffield (18 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> I was going to link to a blistering article by Dr Mike Yeadon aimed at Chris Whitty (who's been refusing to acknowledge any questions for months), I read it this morning, now it's gone, I am surprised he still has a Twitter account....for now.


Could you point to Mike Yeadon's Twitter account? I'm struggling to find it. Thx.


----------



## classic33 (18 Oct 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> Could you point to Mike Yeadon's Twitter account? I'm struggling to find it. Thx.


Try


----------



## classic33 (18 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> I do wish that middle age doctors/professors/scientists with long and distinguished careers behind them, wouldn't be censored so much, it's diffcult to keep up. No wonder we are in such a mess and testing (pointlessly) perfectly healthy people in the search for a second wave to perpetuate what is now, a colossal fraud. A while ago I'd have accepted that the goverments response was (just about) understandabe, but not now, I hope some (Hancock, Whitty & Vallance for starters) face criminal prosecutions, they have deliberately misled people and wilfully caused so much damage, they have to be held to account.
> 
> I was going to link to a blistering article by Dr Mike Yeadon aimed at Chris Whitty (who's been refusing to acknowledge any questions for months), I read it this morning, now it's gone, I am surprised he still has a Twitter account....for now.
> 
> The NHS is not going to be overwhelmed, nor come anywhere near to be being so. There's been no excess deaths for nearly 4 months, no second wave will occur no matter how hard the government tries to find one and (generally) admissions are totally different to what they were in Spring. Admissions v discharges?


Your link is ten years out of date.


----------



## tom73 (18 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Try


Oh look a star grade crank. He’s got some great supporters inc Toby young.


----------



## Rusty Nails (18 Oct 2020)

Have a theory.

Ignore anyone who disagrees.

Search round the internet for _anyone_ to agree.

Claim that validates your theory.

Now that's how to do proper research.


----------



## IaninSheffield (19 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Try


That's the one I found too, but making statements such as:


> But have you read *my latest paper*? PLEASE DO. https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/… Please check my mini bio on the first page. Then this very flattering piece from the former world wide head of R&D at the then biggest...


or


> I’m so disappointed in doctors simply folding like a cheap suit when threatened. I quit a pharma job, company car level, at 31, after encountering fraud in research, as only breadwinner & with a few months old prem baby.


... would (should?) immediately raise alarm bells in terms of credibility. Surely?
As for 'my latest paper' <_my emphasis btw_> - it's, erm ... not exactly a peer-reviewed academic article. His 'latest paper' (according to his Linkedin profile) is from 2012.


----------



## classic33 (19 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Welsh 17 day lockdown announced.


Ireland to go to Level Five, nationwide.


----------



## mjr (19 Oct 2020)

How one case led to 56 because someone didn't quarantine on entering the country and someone didn't quarantine while waiting for test results:
https://www.thejournal.ie/man-failed-restrict-movements-56-cases-5237110-Oct2020/


----------



## mjr (19 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Ireland to go to Level Five, nationwide.


Expected but not yet announced, is it?

Level five in Ireland is almost lockdown again. Here's a summary https://www.thejournal.ie/heres-are...d-level-5-covid-restrictions-5236814-Oct2020/

Meanwhile, bars and restaurants in Belgium are now closed for a month, and courts have struck down a bar curfew in Berlin.


----------



## alicat (19 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> no second wave will occur no matter how hard the government tries to find one



So what is this Tory government's agenda in trying to find one if it doesn't exist @MarkF?


----------



## Beebo (19 Oct 2020)

Not sure if any has posted this yet. 
View: https://youtu.be/ISxL-3GSKVA


----------



## tom73 (19 Oct 2020)

Radio 5 today
Government Minister, Robert Jenrick
"today 30,000 ICU beds as a result of the work of the private sector........ businesses coming forward to create that capability" 

Problem solved then Mr Jenrick I'd like to see how a bunch of furniture and equipment can care of someone who needs them. Unless ikea do flat pack Nurses. or maybe the cabinet are up for some real life work I'm sure a Nurse would happy to show you what you do with a catheter.


----------



## Beebo (19 Oct 2020)

How will a Wales lockdown work if England don’t follow suit? There numbers aren’t that high anyway. It needs to be all or nothing or virus will return from across the border.


----------



## matticus (19 Oct 2020)

Beebo said:


> How will a Wales lockdown work if England don’t follow suit? There numbers aren’t that high anyway. It needs to be all or nothing or virus will return from across the border.


This is the same question that locking down Leicester raised 100 days ago - isn't it?

(or any other localised variations)


----------



## Beebo (19 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> This is the same question that locking down Leicester raised 100 days ago - isn't it?
> 
> (or any other localised variations)


Yeah it’s the same question. But the local lock downs are to get the Higher numbers down and the restrictions are not that onerous. 

The Welsh lockdown is far stricter and the numbers are much lower already.


----------



## mjr (19 Oct 2020)

Beebo said:


> How will a Wales lockdown work if England don’t follow suit? There numbers aren’t that high anyway. It needs to be all or nothing or virus will return from across the border.


Maybe Wales will soon build an anti-virus protection barrier along the border? Are there still any English exclaves there to need an air bridge?


----------



## tom73 (19 Oct 2020)

Beebo said:


> Yeah it’s the same question. But the local lock downs are to get the Higher numbers down and the restrictions are not that onerous.
> 
> The Welsh lockdown is far stricter and the numbers are much lower already.


They have much less critical care and primary care capacity than we have. Better to go now with lower numbers is better then waiting. It's much harder to bring number down than to keep them down. At least they are doing something and trying to be pro active. Can't see it being the last of these lockdowns either.


----------



## Rusty Nails (19 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Maybe Wales will soon build an anti-virus protection barrier along the border? *Are there still any English exclaves there to need an air bridge?*



Southern Pembrokeshire and SW Carmarthenshire have historically been known here as Little England beyond Wales.


----------



## oldwheels (19 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Southern Pembrokeshire and SW Carmarthenshire have historically been known here as Little England beyond Wales.


There are at least a couple of places in Scotland also known as "Little England".


----------



## MarkF (19 Oct 2020)

alicat said:


> So what is this Tory government's agenda in trying to find one if it doesn't exist @MarkF?



I don't know. But bribing councils and citizens with money to provide or act on highly spurious test results on young healthy cannot be justified. There is no genuine second wave (and why would there be?), just a pseudo case wave.


----------



## Rusty Nails (19 Oct 2020)

We have not got a "circuit-breaker" lockdown in Wales, we have a "firebreak" lockdown 

I thought a firebreak involved setting fire to a sacrificial barrier area to stop the fire spreading beyond it. I am not sure that Mark Drakeford is planning to give Covid to a sacrificial section of the population to stop more people getting it.

Is it just that he doesn't want to be seen copying other politicians of the UK that have been talking of a circuit-break lockdown?


----------



## classic33 (19 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> I don't know. But bribing councils and citizens with money to provide or act on highly spurious test results on young healthy cannot be justified. There is no genuine second wave (and why would there be?), just a pseudo case wave.


I've not been bribed!
Three tests, all negative to date.

BRI still have the 24 bed emergency capacity, or is some in use?


----------



## mjr (19 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Is it just that he doesn't want to be seen copying other politicians of the UK that have been talking of a circuit-break lockdown?


Maybe it's a mistranslation from Welsh, like how we got "forlorn hope" from the Dutch for "lost troop".


----------



## Rusty Nails (19 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Maybe it's a mistranslation from Welsh, like how we got "forlorn hope" from the Dutch for "lost troop".


He has at various times talked about both. He speaks English reasonably well for a Carmarthen boy with a Latin degree..


----------



## matticus (19 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> We have not got a "circuit-breaker" lockdown in Wales, we have a "firebreak" lockdown
> 
> I thought a firebreak involved setting fire to a sacrificial barrier area to stop the fire spreading beyond it. I am not sure that Mark Drakeford is planning to give Covid to a sacrificial section of the population to stop more people getting it.


I agree that fire-break is not a great analogy, but circuit breaker is awful!


----------



## classic33 (19 Oct 2020)

@MarkF, Liz Shale. A name to check.

Reading this list, and going by the names, not very English sounding, I wonder how many of them came here to do a job they liked, and how many expected to die doing that job?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/nhs-workers-died-coronavirus-frontline-victims/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uk-health-workers-who-have-died-from-covid-19


----------



## DaveReading (19 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I thought a firebreak involved setting fire to a sacrificial barrier area to stop the fire spreading beyond it. I am not sure that Mark Drakeford is planning to give Covid to a sacrificial section of the population to stop more people getting it.



Most Forestry Commission plantations include firebreaks - strips where no trees are planted to improve the chances of any fire being confined to a limited area. 

No sacrificial burning involved.

It's not a bad analogy.


----------



## Rusty Nails (19 Oct 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Most Forestry Commission plantations include firebreaks - strips where no trees are planted to improve the chances of any fire being confined to a limited area.
> 
> No sacrificial burning involved.
> 
> It's not a bad analogy.



I see your point.


----------



## tom73 (19 Oct 2020)

47 years old 60 days in ICU last 1st wave Covid patient to leave a hospital only for long term Covid lung damage to get you. 
This is way this virus is so deadly, why it’s longer term effects may turn out to be the real issue and why discharge is only the start. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-54597619


----------



## MarkF (20 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> I've not been bribed!
> Three tests, all negative to date.
> 
> BRI still have the 24 bed emergency capacity, or is some in use?



Missed out on your cash then. Not sure what you mean regarding BRI? It has ICU that didn't get overwhelmed in spring and which has now been split in half, I assume in preparation. However, that capacity (that didn't get overwhelmed in spring) could be tripled at very short notice, this is a largely victorian, not modern hospital. I said it in spring, the NHS can do big things very swiftly, it's astonishing, and it is prepared and can move swiftly in any crisis and is lot more prepared now than in spring.

In general, the ICU virus demographic has changed, lot younger, more robust although obesity is still an issue, but they are far more likely to surivive than the (in general) spring arrivals. It is not all doom and gloom.


----------



## classic33 (20 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Missed out on your cash then. Not sure what you mean regarding BRI? It has ICU that didn't get overwhelmed in spring and which has now been split in half, I assume in preparation. However, that capacity (that didn't get overwhelmed in spring) could be tripled at very short notice, this is a largely victorian, not modern hospital. I said it in spring, the NHS can do big things very swiftly, it's astonishing, and it is prepared and can move swiftly in any crisis and is lot more prepared now than in spring.
> 
> In general, the ICU virus demographic has changed, lot younger, more robust although obesity is still an issue, but they are far more likely to surivive than the (in general) spring arrivals. It is not all doom and gloom.


BRI increased the ICU capacity in April, not all in the same ward. 

St. Luke's was also set up to take some. This came at a cost to patients who had non urgent operations and treatments cancelled. There wasn't the staff to cover the beds that would have been needed.


----------



## MarkF (20 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> BRI increased the ICU capacity in April, not all in the same ward.
> 
> St. Luke's was also set up to take some. This came at a cost to patients who had non urgent operations and treatments cancelled. There wasn't the staff to cover the beds that would have been needed.



Yes, some wards with individual rooms are easy to convert, luckily BRI has 2 very large modern wards only up 2/3 years like that.

Yes again, theatres were closed so the op prepare/recovery wards were also vacant. Wasn't this the case everywhere though at a time the professionals didn't know what to expect? I am taking the sign that only half of ICU has been made ready for virus patients as a positive, we'll see.


----------



## PeteXXX (20 Oct 2020)

A friend posted this on FB this morning.. 


View: https://www.facebook.com/533275284/posts/10164286916595285/?sfnsn=scwspmo


----------



## tom73 (20 Oct 2020)

A lot of talking in mass media re hospital beds and the situation is no worse than normal for this of year. What "normal" ? Same as this time of year? Normal based on the current new normal capacity ? As most day to day elective surgery is not at full capacity. Hospitals can't work at full capacity any time soon. Throwing around this idea of it's like normal is not helping. It's not normal it can't be. 
The other talk of extra capacity is waiting or can be found is another thing. Focus on why we need them ie covid, the need to control it and need to act quickly. Not oh well at least we have insurance if it all go's tits up.


----------



## classic33 (20 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Yes, some wards with individual rooms are easy to convert, luckily BRI has 2 very large modern wards only up 2/3 years like that.
> 
> Yes again, theatres were closed so the op prepare/recovery wards were also vacant. Wasn't this the case everywhere though at a time the professionals didn't know what to expect? I am taking the sign that only half of ICU has been made ready for virus patients as a positive, we'll see.


The half that has been set up, is that the one on one/Critical Care part. The extra eight beds that were added in April.

If the capacity is there, along with the staffing required, why did they send cases to both LGI & St. James.


----------



## MarkF (20 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> The half that has been set up, is that the one on one/Critical Care part. The extra eight beds that were added in April.
> 
> If the capacity is there, along with the staffing required, why did they send cases to both LGI & St. James.



It's the new (2/3 year old) ICU, will count next time but think it's has 20 units.

I don't know, as I posted on figures earlier in the thread, it was never overwhelmed. Although it's fair to point out that even in normal times, it's not unusual for an ICU to perform at 90%+ capacity.


----------



## tom73 (20 Oct 2020)

ICU capacity is only part of the picture the biggest and wider issue is likely to be respiratory care capacity as more flu cases feed in and higher respiratory admissions due to extreme cold weather. 
In a normal winter respiratory is at the shape end. Even if less patients get admitted to ICU with covid many will still need higher level respiratory care than basic oxygen. That only comes from respiratory care bed space. Without it many will soon end up in ICU. 
That's before you factor in winter pressure + covid on primary care which may well add to even more respiratory winter admissions. 
Neither have the "casualty" glitz so media and government don't really want to talk them.


----------



## Mo1959 (20 Oct 2020)

I see one of the pro cyclists has tested positive for the second time this year 

https://road.cc/content/news/gaviria-tests-positive-covid-19-second-time-278093


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## mjr (20 Oct 2020)

Crossover from racing as Gaviria catches coronavirus and has to stop racing:


Adam4868 said:


> There was a AG2R staff member tested positive aswell.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/laflammerouge16/status/1318449261823053824?s=19



Gaviria had it back in March at UAE tour too. https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/fe...om-uae-hospital-after-final-coronavirus-test/

This seems to have woken some commenters up to the possibility of catching it twice.


----------



## mjr (20 Oct 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I see one of the pro cyclists has tested positive for the second time this year
> 
> https://road.cc/content/news/gaviria-tests-positive-covid-19-second-time-278093


The doctor quote they've added seems unhelpful. It seems like it would be surprising if Gaviria is still expelling dead virus after eight months, rather than the few weeks spoken about. For comparison, some lung cells only live for about 8 days.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (20 Oct 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> I see one of the pro cyclists has tested positive for the second time this year
> 
> https://road.cc/content/news/gaviria-tests-positive-covid-19-second-time-278093


Yes I saw that too  
The question is, is this a genuine positive ? The positive that caused Bling Matthews to leave seems to have been false.


----------



## mjr (20 Oct 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Yes I saw that too
> The question is, is this a genuine positive ? The positive that caused Bling Matthews to leave seems to have been false.


I can't remember if it's three or five days before retesting. Time will tell, anyway.


----------



## matticus (20 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> The doctor quote they've added seems unhelpful. It seems like it would be surprising if Gaviria is still expelling dead virus after eight months, rather than the few weeks spoken about. For comparison, some lung cells only live for about 8 days.


The quote seems very helpful to me, quite comprehensive in fact (although it does highlight some remaining unknowns):
"
In May, Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead on the COVID-19 outbreak, appearing on BBC’s _The Andrew Marr Show_(link is external), said that someone testing positive twice for coronavirus would not necessarily have been infected.

Instead, she said it might be due to “dead cells” that emerged as the lungs healed.

“Some individuals are they test negative after a week or two or longer, are finding that they are testing positive again,” she said.

Regarding the dead cells, she explained: “It is not infectious. It is not reinfection. It is not reactivation. It is actually part of the healing process that has been captured again as being positive. So that is something really interesting.”

Asked whether people could be reinfected by coronavirus, she replied: “That is a very important question.

“When someone is infectious they develop anti-bodies and they develop part of an immune response one to two to three weeks after infection.

“Does this mean they have immunity? Does it mean they have a strong protection against reinfection and if so how long does that last?

“We do not have the answer to that yet.”
"


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## Flick of the Elbow (20 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> I can't remember if it's three or five days before retesting. Time will tell, anyway.


There seems to be doubt about the accuracy of the particular test that is being used on the Giro, it seems it can return false positives in some cases.


----------



## Moderators (20 Oct 2020)

*Mod note:
*
Folks, it's come to our notice that some posts on here are sounding like conspiracy theories. Please don't do that - the internet is full of places to share this stuff but we'd like CycleChat not to be one of them.

If you are going to make claims about the way the crisis is going please back them up with reputable sources for your information. As has been stated before, Twitter, Facebook and Youtube don't count as such unless they are also backed up by reputable sources.

Thanks


----------



## fossyant (20 Oct 2020)

Moderators said:


> *Mod note:*
> 
> Folks, it's come to our notice that some posts on here are sounding like conspiracy theories. Please don't do that - the internet is full of places to share this stuff but we'd like CycleChat not to be one of them.
> 
> ...



You mean the naughty Chinese didn't send it to us over 5G ? That's me told.


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## matticus (20 Oct 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> There seems to be doubt about the accuracy of the particular test that is being used on the Giro, it seems it can return false positives in some cases.


As do all tests.

As it happens, I saw the Giro numbers compared with Italy pop figures today. Something like:
- Giro 0.8% positive [492 tests, IIRC]
- Italy 5% positive. [I don't even know over what period this is!

I wouldn't read tooo much into that without knowing more about who is tested in Italy etc!


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (20 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> As do all tests.
> 
> As it happens, I saw the Giro numbers compared with Italy pop figures today. Something like:
> - Giro 0.8% positive [492 tests, IIRC]
> ...


Michael Matthews tested +ve on the Giro, was obliged to leave, then immediately tested again, twice, both times found -ve. There was also a Bora rider in an earlier race who tested +ve, had to leave, then immediately tested -ve. His team was the first to call into question the accuracy of the tests being done at races.


----------



## matticus (20 Oct 2020)

Beebo said:


> How will a Wales lockdown work if England don’t follow suit? There numbers aren’t that high anyway. It needs to be all or nothing or virus will return from across the border.


So:
Wales lockdown, despite numbers lower than their neighbours.
Meanwhile Manchester demands payment to lockdown, despite being one of the worst areas by numbers in the nation.

Which/who is doing the right thing??


----------



## classic33 (20 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> So:
> Wales lockdown, despite numbers lower than their neighbours.
> Meanwhile Manchester demands payment to lockdown, despite being one of the worst areas by numbers in the nation.
> 
> Which/who is doing the right thing??


London had a higher R-number than Manchester at one stage, 1.9 compared to 1.4, but no mention of locking it down, why not?


----------



## Archie_tect (20 Oct 2020)

Northumberland Council thinking about splitting from the 7 other NE Councils to avoid being tarred with the same Tier 3 brush... thereby missing out on vital Tier 3 money for being good little Tories.

The very people who don't see themselves as the problem seem to be able to ignore the point that we don't have to be formally locked down to maintain social distancing- when will the penny drop for them that it's all of us- the people- that have to do it voluntarily, not the authorities.


----------



## tom73 (21 Oct 2020)

Radio 4 just done an interview with a clinical contact tracer. Some of the accounts are horrific. They can't divert from the script but he often has no choice. With Students he often has to do a mini consoling session. As they have no-one else to talk to. Some just don't want to engage. Some are clearly Hypoxic and slowly dying on the other end of the phone. One of which was sole carer did not want to engage out of fear being taken away from her husband. All they can do is pass it on and hope help arrives. He has no way of following them up. 
Not the "NHS" service you'd expect.


----------



## Skibird (21 Oct 2020)

I don't know if this has already been posted, so apologise in advance if it has.

You just put your postcode in and it highlights the levels in your area, but at the moment, it's only for England.

https://coronavirus-staging.data.go...HsuCS9esMSSYJaxmrWyKCkMJ2OGy5sgSA-qhrjc-15vcY


----------



## Scaleyback (21 Oct 2020)

Covid figures skewed by including positive cases from university students in other areas !

Students can only register with one Dr/Surgery. They would normally be expected to register with a surgery where they are studying.
Many have not, especially this year due to the long period studying at home. Here in North Yorkshire/Richmondshire students who test positive
are being included in the county's statistics and not actually where they are studying due to their home/GP's address still being registered.

The pattern is likely to be replicated across the country, however it may. be more marked in North Yorkshire given the high number of students who travel out of
the county to study. The County's Director of Public Health says it does make a difference especially in some of our smaller districts.
This also means outbreaks in university towns and cities could be seriously underestimated if positive cases are being registered elsewhere.


----------



## mjr (21 Oct 2020)

Scaleyback said:


> Covid figures skewed by including positive cases from university students in other areas !


Covered in last week's news. Outbreaks in Liv/Manc/Brum raising numbers in leafy south mids and north home counties.



> Students can only register with one Dr/Surgery. They would normally be expected to register with a surgery where they are studying.
> Many have not, especially this year due to the long period studying at home.


It's also not the first thing done on arrival and many outbreaks happened soon after students arrived.


----------



## tom73 (21 Oct 2020)

Now confirmed we are off to level 3 from Saturday. See you in level 4 folks.


----------



## tom73 (21 Oct 2020)

Scaleyback said:


> Covid figures skewed by including positive cases from university students in other areas !
> 
> Students can only register with one Dr/Surgery. They would normally be expected to register with a surgery where they are studying.
> Many have not, especially this year due to the long period studying at home. Here in North Yorkshire/Richmondshire students who test positive
> ...



This is why every University should have had a requirement before they opened up to set up and have ready to go. An internal contact tracing process and have to provide a daily dash board of case. Along with internal testing process or a plan how to get them. Which reports directly to the local head of public health together with the university health teams. The big issues is the T&T is not joined up and still has delays feeding into system one. So many Gp's or other primary care services are often in dark. The system won't even flag up if a person is waiting on a test result. It's right head ace all round Mrs 73 is having no end of issues find out information around testing.


----------



## DCLane (21 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now confirmed we are off to level 3 from Saturday. See you in level 4 folks.



SWMBO knew this was coming yesterday morning - she's based on a Covid rehab ward and has seen a steady increase in patients for recovery. West Yorkshire's probably following next week.

I'd have thought the government would've shut more down for the half-term period, but who am I to know.


----------



## classic33 (21 Oct 2020)

Local Liberal Democrats want the furlough period extending to June 2021.


----------



## tom73 (21 Oct 2020)

DCLane said:


> SWMBO knew this was coming yesterday morning - she's based on a Covid rehab ward and has seen a steady increase in patients for recovery. West Yorkshire's probably following next week.
> 
> I'd have thought the government would've shut more down for the half-term period, but who am I to know.


So did I we've had no ICU beds for days why all this messing about I don't know and to what till Saturday is madness.
West Yorkshire can't be all that behind i'd suspect. Sadly admissions and deaths form cases now are baked in come what. 
Too much time has been wasted yet again


----------



## Scaleyback (21 Oct 2020)

Read it and weep. Corruption is alive and kicking.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...itain-nhs-corporate-executives-test-and-trace


----------



## tom73 (21 Oct 2020)

Scaleyback said:


> Read it and weep. Corruption is alive and kicking.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/comment...itain-nhs-corporate-executives-test-and-trace



Nothing to see here move along ..... 
One thing they've missed off is a health minister has confirmed the serco contact has no penalty clause.


----------



## Rusty Nails (21 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Now confirmed we are off to level 3 from Saturday. See you in level 4 folks.


Is Yorkshire moving to Wales?


----------



## tom73 (21 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Is Yorkshire moving to Wales?


No not moving it's a take over


----------



## Rusty Nails (21 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> No not moving it's a take over



As long as you don't bring my relatives from Barnsley and Wakefield with you.


----------



## stowie (21 Oct 2020)

Not sure if this has been posted previously...


----------



## Venod (22 Oct 2020)

Taken from hospitality Uk


We shut for 17 weeks
We built beer gardens
We moved tables
We opened our doors and windows
We asked people to sit down
We stopped more than 8 people from 3 households
We stopped more than 6 people from 2 households
We split up families and support bubbles
We turned off music
We turned off sport commentary
We moved drinkers outside
We told people not to shout
We banned singing
We banned dancing
We banned live music
We are wearing masks
We do your track and trace
We ordered an online booking system
We have got sanitising stations
We have one use only menus
We constantly clean
We only do table service
We shut at 10pm

Hospitality, your local, is one of the safest places to be and still we get the blame, stay safe everyone


----------



## mjr (22 Oct 2020)

Venod said:


> Hospitality, your local, is one of the safest places to be and still we get the blame, stay safe everyone


They get the blame because some are still selling drinks to drunks and letting them hug everyone, plus it shows up on tracing too often to be likery to all be false positives.


----------



## mjr (22 Oct 2020)

Outbreak at the main Bernard Matthews processor in Lenwade, Norfolk: 76 cases so far, all on one shift now quarantined.

Luton council leader begs for no household mixing during half term, saying they want to avoid Tier 2.


----------



## classic33 (22 Oct 2020)

Venod said:


> Taken from hospitality Uk
> 
> 
> We shut for 17 weeks
> ...


If only that were true of them all though.
Some smaller, non-essential, shops shut at the same time. Some of those never reopened, jobs lost, business's ruined. Empty shop premises now on the "high street".

Locally, work on converting two former shops into licensed premises continued throughout the lockdown. Two more, to join the ever increasing number of such places within the town centre. Non seem to have remained closed, shut up for good. Unlike the small shops, usually family owned and run.


----------



## tom73 (22 Oct 2020)

T&T doing well in hitting a new low that is just 1 in 7 (15.1%) getting a result in 24 hours. lowest weekly percentage since test and trace began.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (22 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> T&T doing well in hitting a new low that is just 1 in 7 (15.1%) getting a result in 24 hours. lowest weekly percentage since test and trace began.



 How low does it have to go before it stops being world-beating?


----------



## Venod (22 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Non seem to have remained closed, shut up for good.


Its a different story nationwide.

https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk...ight&utm_medium=OnSite&utm_campaign=copyright


----------



## mjr (22 Oct 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> There seems to be doubt about the accuracy of the particular test that is being used on the Giro, it seems it can return false positives in some cases.


Teammate Joe Dombrowski told The Cycling Podcast that Gaviria had a second test that showed up positive before leaving. I suspect they gave him a swab test after the spit test showed positive.


----------



## tom73 (22 Oct 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> How low does it have to go before it stops being world-beating?



It's just got even worse 
Operation moonshot has on the QT been dropped along with idea of mass rapid testing and shallowed up by Dido's horror show. 
Turned out to what it was after all 
"plans for full rollout of 10m tests a day by early 2021 was no more than a “document designed to provoke discussion” and “did not and does not reflect an adopted policy”. said DOH
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...t-good-law-project-dido-harding-b1221920.html


----------



## raleighnut (22 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's just got even worse
> Operation moonshot has on the QT been dropped along with idea of mass rapid testing and shallowed up by Dido's horror show.
> Turned out to what it was after all
> "plans for full rollout of 10m tests a day by early 2021 was no more than a “document designed to provoke discussion” and “did not and does not reflect an adopted policy”. said DOH
> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...t-good-law-project-dido-harding-b1221920.html


So more lies from BoJo, how long do we put up with his halfarsed 'promises'.


----------



## MrGrumpy (22 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> T&T doing well in hitting a new low that is just 1 in 7 (15.1%) getting a result in 24 hours. lowest weekly percentage since test and trace began.


So is that an issue with the labs or nobody able to book a test or both ? What an absolute shoot show. Not sure what the stats are up here ?


----------



## mjr (22 Oct 2020)

Oxford vaccine trial to continue despite a death, plus Belgian ex-PM in intensive care: https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-czech-republic-89647f33418b41e4e473ea0e8f1f1ad6


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Oct 2020)

Barking and Dagenham (not yet on the map in the link) join the growing number of councils who have given up Waiting for Serco - *https://weownit.org.uk/why-public-o...their-own-alternatives-sercos-track-and-trace*


----------



## tom73 (22 Oct 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> So is that an issue with the labs or nobody able to book a test or both ? What an absolute shoot show. Not sure what the stats are up here ?


The issue look's to be handing over key parts of public health to ones with no experience other than making money.


----------



## classic33 (22 Oct 2020)

Venod said:


> Its a different story nationwide.
> 
> https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk...ight&utm_medium=OnSite&utm_campaign=copyright


315 up to September this year, down on last years figure.

How many shops closed in March this year, never to reopen?


----------



## classic33 (22 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Missed out on your cash then. Not sure what you mean regarding BRI? It has ICU that didn't get overwhelmed in spring and which has now been split in half, I assume in preparation. However, that capacity (that didn't get overwhelmed in spring) could be tripled at very short notice, *this is a largely victorian, not modern hospital.* I said it in spring, the NHS can do big things very swiftly, it's astonishing, and it is prepared and can move swiftly in any crisis and is lot more prepared now than in spring.
> 
> In general, the ICU virus demographic has changed, lot younger, more robust although obesity is still an issue, but they are far more likely to surivive than the (in general) spring arrivals. It is not all doom and gloom.


Not Victorian, but the main building isn't exactly new, on the outside.

https://www.bradfordhospitals.nhs.uk/our-people/history-of-bthft/


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Oxford vaccine trial to continue despite a death, plus Belgian ex-PM in intensive care: https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-czech-republic-89647f33418b41e4e473ea0e8f1f1ad6



It's been reported elsewhere that the death on the trial was someone on placebo suffering COVID complications, quoting "sources close to the trial" or somesuch. That sounds credible to me.


----------



## Venod (22 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> How many shops closed in March this year, never to reopen?



I should think a lot more than pubs, but there are far more shops than pubs, I was just pointing out the alternatives to your statement.

"Non seem to have remained closed, shut up for good"


----------



## mjr (22 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It's been reported elsewhere that the death on the trial was someone on placebo suffering COVID complications, quoting "sources close to the trial" or somesuch. That sounds credible to me.


Indeed. Where was that reported, please?



Venod said:


> I should think a lot more than pubs, but there are far more shops than pubs, I was just pointing out the alternatives to your statement.
> 
> "Non seem to have remained closed, shut up for good"


It seems a bit early to say if more than usual have shut up for good. The previous operator might have gone bust but that's not to say no-one else will be tempted to try. The link suggested that it's not a particularly high number to have been converted or demolished yet.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Indeed. Where was that reported, please?



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ps-on-report-of-brazil-death-in-vaccine-trial


----------



## classic33 (22 Oct 2020)

Venod said:


> I should think a lot more than pubs, but there are far more shops than pubs, I was just pointing out the alternatives to your statement.
> 
> "Non seem to have remained closed, shut up for good"


I was going on what has happened locally. We have an increase of two, since March, pub wise.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Oct 2020)

98.4% local health tracing versus Serco's 57.6%. Obviously, we'll need more consultants to work out how to spend more money on Serco.
​_James Naismith, a professor of structural biology at the University of Oxford, said of the figures: “[They] show a system struggling to make any difference to the epidemic … The current system indicates that around two-thirds of infected people do not have contacts traced at all. Of the contacts provided, around 60% of the contacts are reached._​​​_“Of those that are reached, over 70% of them are in the same house as the positive case, so were unlikely to have needed the tracing system. Only half of all contacts that are actually traced are reached within 24 hours._​​​_“These statistics are a stark demonstration of what Sage concluded and we can see with our eyes: the system has given a bird’s eye view of the pandemic and done very little to halt it.” He suggested the test-and-trace system may be beyond repair._​​​_For cases handled by local health protection teams, 94.8% of contacts were reached and asked to self-isolate, but for those handled either online or by call centres the figure was 57.6%._​(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...trace-reaching-fewer-covid-contacts-than-ever)​


----------



## tom73 (22 Oct 2020)

As it’s always been NHS track and trace works been like that for years. Serco track and trace however is a total mess the best bit we are paying for it in more ways then one.


----------



## qigong chimp (22 Oct 2020)

Where there's death there's brass.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (23 Oct 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> 98.4% local health tracing versus Serco's 57.6%. Obviously, we'll need more consultants to work out how to spend more money on Serco.
> ​


No, wrong, they've decided to splurge it directly....https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/uk-government-seeks-test-and-trace-executive-for-up-to-2000-a-day


----------



## tom73 (23 Oct 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1319540430443368448?s=21


----------



## tom73 (23 Oct 2020)

For 3 days now local radio has had a phone in re tier 3. Some are asking questions because they are generally confused.
Which is no wonder really they are just wanting to do the right thing. Sadly most are just asking questions which are clearly looking for work arounds the rules.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Oct 2020)

Would be funny if 60,000 people hadn't died. 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1319395782055907336


----------



## tom73 (23 Oct 2020)

How to make more it look we have more Doctors and Nurses now more than ever. Simple class med students as Doctors and former Nurses who came back to help with covid as new Nurses. 
https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/pol...ctors-in-new-government-workforce-statistics/


----------



## fossyant (23 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> For 3 days now local radio has had a phone in re tier 3. Some are asking questions because they are generally confused.
> Which is no wonder really they are just wanting to do the right thing. Sadly most are just asking questions which are clearly looking for work arounds the rules.



Don't forget you can put a tie on and meet just the hell you want to for 'lunch' but not take your mum out for a meal.


----------



## MarkF (23 Oct 2020)

Who's have thought it? Wednesday evening there were approx 1 Covid ICU patient per UK hospital...............

Manchester Evening News


----------



## mjr (23 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> For 3 days now local radio has had a phone in re tier 3. Some are asking questions because they are generally confused.
> Which is no wonder really they are just wanting to do the right thing. Sadly most are just asking questions which are clearly looking for work arounds the rules.


It all depends how it's done: if it's "how can I do X but stay within the rules" it's probably ok and just the personal version of a lot of "covid secure" advice for businesses. If it's "what's the loophole to hold a party" then that's worrying.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Who's have thought it? Wednesday evening there were approx 1 Covid ICU patient per UK hospital...............
> 
> Manchester Evening News



Your link doesn't provide any such information. 

Who'd have thought it.


----------



## classic33 (23 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Who's have thought it? Wednesday evening there were approx 1 Covid ICU patient per UK hospital...............
> 
> Manchester Evening News


Bit misleading when some have not replied, and that it covers Manchester only.


----------



## mjr (23 Oct 2020)

712 in ICU according to https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/ - how many ICUs are there? Also, a bed in Cornwall isn't great for an outbreak in Newcastle.


----------



## classic33 (23 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Who's have thought it? Wednesday evening there were approx 1 Covid ICU patient per UK hospital...............
> 
> Manchester Evening News


_"This Monday*, there were 2,881 Covid patients in hospital and 528 were in beds with ventilators (not necessarily actually hooked up to ventilators)."_

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/20/dont-believe-scare-stories-hospitals-running-icu-beds/

*19th October

Critical Care Units are a seperate unit and wouldn't be included in ICU figures.


----------



## mjr (23 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> _"This Monday*, there were 2,881 Covid patients in hospital and 528 were in beds with ventilators (not necessarily actually hooked up to ventilators)."_
> 
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/20/dont-believe-scare-stories-hospitals-running-icu-beds/
> 
> ...


Does not cite sources and contradicts other reports.


----------



## classic33 (23 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Does not cite sources and *contradicts other reports*.*


And you're surprised at *that.


----------



## mjr (23 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> And you're surprised at *that.


Not really. The Telegraph ain't nicknamed the Torygraph without reason!


----------



## tom73 (23 Oct 2020)

Admissions now are mostly from week's a ago case numbers now point to future admissions. As long they go up admissions will follow.
Ones not on ventilators but in ICU is one to watch are they not on ventilators as they are recovering but have no stop down beds are free? 
Or are they in ICU because CCU is full? It's totally pointless to talk about ICU beds it's not the sharp end and not the be all and end all of picture come winter. What ever some wish to think a bed only tells a tiny bit of story some are clearly frustrated bed mangers. 
How many are currently at home with covid and being closely watched by primary care ? Simple truth is we don't know we don't collect numbers. 
We may well have enough ICU beds and less may end up in one with covid. But the primary care would have broken down long before ICU if cases just keep rising as winter takes hold.


----------



## fossyant (23 Oct 2020)

ICU beds are generally busy in winter anyway.


----------



## mjr (23 Oct 2020)

Ireland recalls ViraPro hand sanitiser because it contains meths not ethanol. https://www.thejournal.ie/schools-hand-sanitiser-recall-5242191-Oct2020/


----------



## mjr (23 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Look's like we can cross off Remdesivir from the list covid drug treatments.
> https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1.full.pdf


Remdesivir approved for Covid in the US https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/us-regulators-approve-remdesivir-drug-to-treat-covid


----------



## fossyant (23 Oct 2020)

"Prolonged use of such sanitiser may cause dermatitis, eye irritation, upper respiratory system irritation and headaches"

No shoot sherlock ! Same goes for any sanitiser. Some of them nearly get you piddled by the smell.


----------



## classic33 (23 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Not really. The Telegraph ain't nicknamed the Torygraph without reason!


It was basically quoting the Manchester Evening News, referenced earlier. Clearly stated.


----------



## classic33 (23 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Remdesivir approved for Covid in the US https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/us-regulators-approve-remdesivir-drug-to-treat-covid


Allowed drug is Veklury.

Originally developed to treat Ebola, and what a certain Mr D. Trump was treated with.
_"It is thought to prevent SARS CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) from multiplying in the body, with some patients recovering faster after using it."_

Though to! They don't know in other words.


----------



## classic33 (23 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Remdesivir approved for Covid in the US https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/us-regulators-approve-remdesivir-drug-to-treat-covid


Allowed drug is Veklury.

Originally developed to treat Ebola, and what a certain Mr D. Trump was treated with.
_"It is thought to prevent SARS CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) from multiplying in the body, with some patients recovering faster after using it."_

Though to! They don't know in other words.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Allowed drug is Veklury.
> 
> Originally developed to treat Ebola, and what a certain Mr D. Trump was treated with.
> _"It is thought to prevent SARS CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) from multiplying in the body, with some patients recovering faster after using it."_
> ...



A 5x larger trial has just been published, showing no effect

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4057


----------



## classic33 (23 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> A 5x larger trial has just been published, showing no effect
> 
> https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4057


It worked on Donald!


----------



## fossyant (23 Oct 2020)

These rules are a joke in T3. It's ok for 5 people to sit together (no social distancing) for lunch in a restaurant because they are from the same work place, but not OK for me to take my mum. 

Said five people were nurses from the local practice. It was not a business meeting. Thank goodness I don't use that GP practice. 

Bloody joke.


----------



## oldworld (23 Oct 2020)

Here in France the numbers of daily infections is way higher than the UK (about double) so take heart.
However, the number of daily deaths from Covid in the UK is higher than those in France. 
There must be a reason for this difference but I'm not sure what it is.
I can only think the UK population is generally more unfit/ overweight/ living in poorer condition/ more ethnically diverse. Any or all could be the reason.
More worrying is the possibility of deaths increasing at the same % of new infections if this continues. 
No European country has got this pandemic under control but the UK government seems to be 'world beating' in their poor handling of the outbreak.


----------



## tom73 (23 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> These rules are a joke in T3. It's ok for 5 people to sit together (no social distancing) for lunch in a restaurant because they are from the same work place, but not OK for me to take my mum.
> 
> Said five people were nurses from the local practice. It was not a business meeting. Thank goodness I don't use that GP practice.
> 
> Bloody joke.



mmmm I'd report them at best it's ill judged at worse it's bringing the profession into disrepute. It "maybe" within the rules but at the moment in Tier 3 area is not the best thing to do. I take it all in uniform ? Can't see the practice being happy to be seen promoting areas of "grey" at a time like this. It maybe against the practice the uniform policy to start with.


----------



## Julia9054 (23 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> "Prolonged use of such sanitiser may cause dermatitis, eye irritation, upper respiratory system irritation and headaches"
> 
> No shoot sherlock ! Same goes for any sanitiser. Some of them nearly get you piddled by the smell.


We have non alcohol hand sanitizer in the science labs at school as they don’t want teachers setting fire to their hands using Bunsen burners.
Not sure how good it is - here is an incubated agar plate where I dipped one thumb in hand sanitizer and left one thumb dirty. Doesn’t show what I was aiming for it to show!


----------



## fossyant (23 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> mmmm I'd report them at best it's ill judged at worse it's bringing the profession into disrepute. It "maybe" within the rules but at the moment in Tier 3 area is not the best thing to do. I take it all in uniform ? Can't see the practice being happy to be seen promoting areas of "grey" at a time like this. It maybe against the practice the uniform policy to start with.



All in uniform


----------



## Rusty Nails (23 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> And you're surprised at *that.


Not surprised at the Telegraph, nor at @MarkF for posting it.


----------



## tom73 (23 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> All in uniform


 I'd defo be reporting that then.


----------



## tom73 (23 Oct 2020)

Remember the £500 self isolation payment for low income households? If the app tells you to isolate you can forget the £500 you can't have it. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54660237


----------



## classic33 (23 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> Not surprised at the Telegraph, nor at @MarkF for posting it.


Relates to the Manchester Evening News piece. I posted the Telegraph link. In the main because of the number in ICU's quoted. Have we got 2,880 ICU's in the UK.

Local ICU has nine beds taken by Covid-19 cases, 3/4's full.


----------



## Rezillo (23 Oct 2020)

20th October:

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...hester-which-covid-patient-data-are-borne-out

*How many people with Covid-19 are in hospital in the region?*
As of last Friday, Greater Manchester hospitals were treating a total of 520 inpatients left seriously ill by the coronavirus, of whom 90 were in ICU and 20 were receiving Cpap or Bipap, the dashboard said. However, the Health Service Journal reported on Monday that there had been “a large increase in Covid patients since yesterday, with beds occupied by Covid-positive patients rising from just over 500 to around 650”.


----------



## cookiemonster (24 Oct 2020)

View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4NNb0fmKR4


Nailed.


----------



## Lovacott (24 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Remember the £500 self isolation payment for low income households? If the app tells you to isolate you can forget the £500 you can't have it.


The firm I work for will pay statutory sick pay only to anyone who is asked to isolate by the app but at the same time, they want us all to download the app?

They will give us full pay for a bad back, common flu, depression, sports injury or Delhi belly, but just SSP if we isolate because one of our close contacts has been confirmed as Covid positive?

I wonder how that will work out?


----------



## fossyant (24 Oct 2020)

Lovacott said:


> The firm I work for will pay statutory sick pay only to anyone who is asked to isolate by the app but at the same time, they want us all to download the app?
> 
> They will give us full pay for a bad back, common flu, depression, sports injury or Delhi belly, but just SSP if we isolate because one of our close contacts has been confirmed as Covid positive?
> 
> I wonder how that will work out?



People will just go to work !


----------



## Lovacott (24 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> People will just go to work !


Sod that.

I'm going to break my leg falling off my bike.


----------



## midlife (24 Oct 2020)

fossyant said:


> People will just go to work !



My employer is pretty clear about being told to isolate by test and trace. You do it and don't come into work. You tell occupational health and the line manager and you will be granted paid leave. I assume my employer (NHS) has access to test and trace to check.

Not heard anything about being told by the app. We are told to turn it off at work and that's it......


----------



## raleighnut (24 Oct 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4NNb0fmKR4
> 
> 
> Nailed.



What about the 'companies' who have defrauded the country with 'furlough' claims. 

https://www.certax.co.uk/news/busin...on-in-furlough-payments-fraudulent-hmrc-finds


----------



## tom73 (24 Oct 2020)

London's top restaurants happy to brake the rules some even look to actively encourage it. As long as you talk business one is happy to let 30 get together.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...top-restaurants-are-skewering-the-covid-rules


----------



## glasgowcyclist (24 Oct 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4NNb0fmKR4
> 
> 
> Nailed.




And the Tories wonder why the hashtag #ToryScum is trending.


----------



## oldwheels (24 Oct 2020)

I don't understand the current rules. There was a bus party wandering around Tobermory on the Isle of Mull last Thursday. In one of the shops they were asked where they had come from and they said Manchester. If Manchester is in some sort of lockdown why are they wandering around this country?


----------



## Blue Hills (24 Oct 2020)

In London the vast vast majority of folk I see on public transport (I use sparingly carefully) are complying with the mask rule but there are a few oblivious idiots. Have had words with two or three.

There is very clearly no policing of the rules whatsoever.

Have been in a small number of spoons and in truth feel safest there than anywhere apart from home. Seem to be very much on top of things,

Meanwhile in Italy things seem to be heating up and I can see more of this happening.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54672685

Damn damn this virus.

Wondering if the religious leaders will break cover for Christmas (and tell us where they've been)


----------



## MrGrumpy (24 Oct 2020)

oldwheels said:


> I don't understand the current rules. There was a bus party wandering around Tobermory on the Isle of Mull last Thursday. In one of the shops they were asked where they had come from and they said Manchester. If Manchester is in some sort of lockdown why are they wandering around this country?



you can see why our FM hinted at restrictions for people coming from other areas of the UK.Folk moan about civil liberties and freedom to do as they please , but in reality it’s protecting people from their own selves !!


----------



## oldwheels (24 Oct 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> you can see why our FM hinted at restrictions for people coming from other areas of the UK.Folk moan about civil liberties and freedom to do as they please , but in reality it’s protecting people from their own selves !!


It is not protecting people against themselves which bothers me. It is protecting myself from them without locking myself away.


----------



## tom73 (24 Oct 2020)

oldwheels said:


> I don't understand the current rules. There was a bus party wandering around Tobermory on the Isle of Mull last Thursday. In one of the shops they were asked where they had come from and they said Manchester. If Manchester is in some sort of lockdown why are they wandering around this country?


Good question the problem is travel outside the given examples is still like much that’s gone before. It’s only advised not to. Not a legal requirement to stay in your area. Unlike a local coach who has stop all travel day trips and holidays. As they believe it’s the right thing to keep everyone safe. Unlike that tour operator who clearly don’t see that way.


----------



## tom73 (24 Oct 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> In London the vast vast majority of folk I see on public transport (I use sparingly carefully) are complying with the mask rule but there are a few oblivious idiots. Have had words with two or three.
> 
> There is very clearly no policing of the rules whatsoever.
> 
> ...



See on the news the loons out in force protesting again down your way. Freedom is not much use if you dead. Sadly they will know donut kills others long before them.


----------



## MarkF (24 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> See on the news the loons out in force protesting again down your way. Freedom is not much use if you dead. Sadly they will know donut kills others long before them.



Loons? They are people with another view Tom. The lockdowns/guidelines serve no real purpose (other than to try to validate a failed 6/7 month long farce) and they will only produce negative consequences. If a child cannot attend his mothers funeral. If a mother has to choose which of her children can attend hers. If you cannot buy a book in Wales to save you from Covid (epidemic over in June) something is plainly wrong. To an ever growing many, supporters of this absolute nonsense might well be loons.


----------



## MarkF (24 Oct 2020)

How deadly is Covid?

But I think (deep down) we know this.


----------



## PK99 (24 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Remember the £500 self isolation payment for low income households? If the app tells you to isolate you can forget the £500 you can't have it.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54660237




Because the app operates anonymously. as the article says, ways are being sought to bring app users within the scope of the payment scheme. But privacy demands make that difficult

Your post is yet another example of negative spin.


----------



## tom73 (24 Oct 2020)

PK99 said:


> Because the app operates anonymously. as the article says, ways are being sought to bring app users within the scope of the payment scheme. But privacy demands make that difficult
> 
> Your post is yet another example of negative spin.


If you can’t afford to isolate you can’t choose how ever your told. Not difficult to work out it’s been pointed out enough times. But then again many in power are not known for understanding what living in real world is like.


----------



## Oldhippy (24 Oct 2020)

I don't understand how people think anyone can fix this immediately and keep an economy like nothing has occurred. Granted no one in power knows how the regular guy lives as it doesn't affect them but you can't have everything. Wether you agree with the truth or the conspiracies this event is unprecedented and has to change the way everyone does things including what we call right and normal wether we agree or not. Yes it is causing havoc, hardship, distress across the board but no one person or power has a magic solution that they can just go Da-Da! with.


----------



## tom73 (24 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Loons? They are people with another view Tom. The lockdowns/guidelines serve no real purpose (other than to try to validate a failed 6/7 month long farce) and they will only produce negative consequences. If a child cannot attend his mothers funeral. If a mother has to choose which of her children can attend hers. If you cannot buy a book in Wales to save you from Covid (epidemic over in June) something is plainly wrong. To an ever growing many, supporters of this absolute nonsense might well be loons.



Many blinding believe the mass of crap that’s around that has as nothing to do with reality or fact. Or based on anything other than a bunch of cranks with very dubious backgrounds. Which will only endanger others is not just people expressing a different view. It’s a danger to public health bordering on a cult.


----------



## Bazzer (24 Oct 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> In London the vast vast majority of folk I see on public transport (I use sparingly carefully) are complying with the mask rule but there are a few oblivious idiots. Have had words with two or three.
> 
> There is very clearly no policing of the rules whatsoever.
> 
> ...


I was working in London last Thursday and walked from Euston to Holborn and later back again. I have to say, from the brief exposure I had, I was impressed with the number of people like myself who were wearing masks and the rigorous enforcement on Euston. Although the area to the front of Euston before you enter the station was odd. Very few mask wearers compared to my walk to Holborn. Certainly the mask wearing on the streets away from Euston were higher than I have seen in my own area of the North West.


----------



## tom73 (24 Oct 2020)

Oldhippy said:


> I don't understand how people think anyone can fix this immediately and keep an economy like nothing has occurred. Granted no one in power knows how the regular guy lives as it doesn't affect them but you can't have everything. Wether you agree with the truth or the conspiracies this event is unprecedented and has to change the way everyone does things including what we call right and normal wether we agree or not. Yes it is causing havoc, hardship, distress across the board but no one person or power has a magic solution that they can just go Da-Da! with.



True that ever happens the old ways have mostly gone a massive long over due economic rebalance is coming. What ever that will look like we don’t know but we know have to fight infectious diseases what works and what’s effective. So we can either follow the science and tried and tested public health. Or forget it and blunder on.Some part of world have understood that from the start and are much better if for it. The one thing that’s going all this is Covid deal with that and much of rest will be a hell of a lot more simple.


----------



## marinyork (24 Oct 2020)

oldwheels said:


> I don't understand the current rules. There was a bus party wandering around Tobermory on the Isle of Mull last Thursday. In one of the shops they were asked where they had come from and they said Manchester. If Manchester is in some sort of lockdown why are they wandering around this country?



Manchester went into tier 3 the day after. That's why they were there in the sense of the question you were asking. The person on the street interprets the rules as tier 3 isn't allowed to leave the area, which seems to mean for a lot of people the surrounding area or region e.g. historic county of lancashire or neighbouring counties. If you look on the internet or ask for the local goss it doesn't do any good, for one finds loads of examples of people holding stuff they shouldn't be or going out of the local area (well I should I do as under tier 3, for tier 2 there were always loads of people zooming about).


----------



## Rusty Nails (24 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Manchester went into tier 3 the day after. That's why they were there in the sense of the question you were asking. The person on the street interprets the rules as tier 3 isn't allowed to leave the area, which seems to mean for a lot of people the surrounding area or region e.g. historic county of lancashire or neighbouring counties. If you look on the internet or ask for the local goss it doesn't do any good, for one finds loads of examples of people holding stuff they shouldn't be or going out of the local area (well I should I do as under tier 3, for tier 2 there were always loads of people zooming about).



I've been zooming everywhere to my friends and family a lot the last eight months.


----------



## tom73 (24 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Manchester went into tier 3 the day after. That's why they were there in the sense of the question you were asking. The person on the street interprets the rules as tier 3 isn't allowed to leave the area, which seems to mean for a lot of people the surrounding area or region e.g. historic county of lancashire or neighbouring counties. If you look on the internet or ask for the local goss it doesn't do any good, for one finds loads of examples of people holding stuff they shouldn't be or going out of the local area (well I should I do as under tier 3, for tier 2 there were always loads of people zooming about).



What’s not helping is if try and look for official rules you find a right load of a mismatch. Even local government look to be finding it hard to understand. Before moving to level 3 pubs here got told 2 households socially distanced on the same table was ok. As long as each household was treated as 2 bookings. The current plan to balance health and wealth with trying to be seen as playing to the popular view. Has left us with total fudge which is clear to see is doing little for either. As a member of sage pointed out some time ago was likely to happen.


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## slowmotion (24 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> What’s not helping is if try and look for official rules you find a right load of a mismatch. Even local government look to be finding it hard to understand. Before moving to level 3 pubs here got told 2 households socially distanced on the same table was ok. As long as each household was treated as 2 bookings. The current plan to balance health and wealth with trying to be seen as playing to the popular view. Has left us with total fudge which is clear to see is doing little for either. As a member of sage pointed out some time ago was likely to happen.


All kind of confusion is bound to happen when there's a pandemic raging. The situation is bound to change rapidly and only the experts with brilliant hindsight will come up with the right answers. It's happening all across Europe and the rest of the world. At least the international beauty contest experts seem to have fallen silent recently.


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## marinyork (24 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> What’s not helping is if try and look for official rules you find a right load of a mismatch. Even local government look to be finding it hard to understand. Before moving to level 3 pubs here got told 2 households socially distanced on the same table was ok. As long as each household was treated as 2 bookings. The current plan to balance health and wealth with trying to be seen as playing to the popular view. Has left us with total fudge which is clear to see is doing little for either. As a member of sage pointed out some time ago was likely to happen.



I'm very close to tier 2. If I get on the bike or in the car or even a bus half a million here are very close to tier 1. The news has tended to focus, as is the case on this forum of those in manchester and some tier 2 areas nearby, but it's even worse around here. 

I'm in on a saturday night, but I'm reliably informed many, many pubs here are still open. If they weren't, well some would get in their cars and head for tier 1 as I believe a lot of people locally know about. 

A lot of restaurants/pubs were doing the screen thing to divide tables.

The rules around churches and activities/prayers outside on church grounds I find particularly odd, but fortunately that hasn't got widely discussed in the media otherwise that would not help. The 'beneficial and philanthropic organisation' is also being used on a larger scale I believe than was probably expected by the government. There are some places not that far away basically using it for large scale pub socials FFS.


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## classic33 (24 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> How deadly is Covid?
> 
> But I think (deep down) we know this.


Always wary of anyone's own site, pushing the ideas of their own.


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## tom73 (24 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm very close to tier 2. If I get on the bike or in the car or even a bus half a million here are very close to tier 1. The news has tended to focus, as is the case on this forum of those in manchester and some tier 2 areas nearby, but it's even worse around here.
> 
> I'm in on a saturday night, but I'm reliably informed many, many pubs here are still open. If they weren't, well some would get in their cars and head for tier 1 as I believe a lot of people locally know about.
> 
> ...


Which ever way you look at it we are in a hell of mess and getting more complex by the day. Plenty of pubs are still open round here too plenty more are all of a sudden selling ”food “. People will travel come what and think oh sod it why bother. 

I‘ve never fully understood around churches either. Guess it helps when you got a bunch of “employees” in the lords and by law have the right to meet government ministers privately when you like. Publicly they may have said we will open only when safe. But privately they made it clear to vicars they had to open. My mate’s a vicar has yet to open though but he’s knows his stuff being the union rep and teaching H&S for the union. Even they know it’s not a good idea to force him.

All the time this whole tier up, down in ,out fudge this and that panto carries on. The bigger the hole we find ourselves in with no sign of finding the ladder.


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## Blue Hills (25 Oct 2020)

Bazzer said:


> I was working in London last Thursday and walked from Euston to Holborn and later back again. I have to say, from the brief exposure I had, I was impressed with the number of people like myself who were wearing masks and the rigorous enforcement on Euston. Although the area to the front of Euston before you enter the station was odd. Very few mask wearers compared to my walk to Holborn. Certainly the mask wearing on the streets away from Euston were higher than I have seen in my own area of the North West.


To be honest, tho i have no medical expertise, i see wearing masks in the street as generally pointless. With regards to enforcement (or lack of) i was referring to actually on buses, trains, not in stations/transport hubs. Yes, the vast vast majority of folks in london are complying, though some folks outside london seem to think otherwise.


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## Blue Hills (25 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> The rules around churches and activities/prayers outside on church grounds I find particularly odd, but fortunately that hasn't got widely discussed in the media otherwise that would not help.


Can you give me the facts on the first bit of your sentence (up to "odd") please, am unaware of. And why, whatever they are, is it fortunate they haven't been discussed? Am all in favour of open discussion.


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## Flick of the Elbow (25 Oct 2020)

oldwheels said:


> It is not protecting people against themselves which bothers me. It is protecting myself from them without locking myself away.


The measures taken in England appear to be a complete shambles. Boris has consistently failed to take strong enough measures, he has consistently failed to make them easy to understand, has consistently failed to make them enforceable. And as for the Manchester debacle, I am appalled that they have treated public health measures like some sort of commercial negotiation. I can’t see any realistic prospect of Sturgeon being able to close the border but hopefully with the onset of winter the number of holidaymakers from England won’t be such an issue.


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## tom73 (25 Oct 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> To be honest, tho i have no medical expertise, i see wearing masks in the street as generally pointless. With regards to enforcement (or lack of) i was referring to actually on buses, trains, not in stations/transport hubs. Yes, the vast vast majority of folks in london are complying, though some folks outside london seem to think otherwise.


On the whole lack of face covering in open public spacers is not too much of an issue. Provided that social distancing can be maintained if that is not possible or the space is partly enclosed then the use of face coverings is a good idea.


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## Blue Hills (25 Oct 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> The measures taken in England appear to be a complete shambles. Boris has -------- consistently failed to make them easy to understand, has consistently failed to make them enforceable.


Too too true - has shown that he doesn't understand them himself and with bare faced cheek refused to allow clear guidelines to be enforced against Cummings - and his own health professionals to answer questions on same.

Anyone with any degree of shame (Boris has none) doing what he has done, saying what he has said, would be wearing a mask full time, long long after the virus has passed.


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## oldwheels (25 Oct 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> The measures taken in England appear to be a complete shambles. Boris has consistently failed to take strong enough measures, he has consistently failed to make them easy to understand, has consistently failed to make them enforceable. And as for the Manchester debacle, I am appalled that they have treated public health measures like some sort of commercial negotiation. I can’t see any realistic prospect of Sturgeon being able to close the border but hopefully with the onset of winter the number of holidaymakers from England won’t be such an issue.


I would'nt bank on lower numbers judging by the present numbers arriving but as I have 2 trips to Oban this coming week I should get a better impression.


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## PK99 (25 Oct 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> The measures taken in England appear to be a complete shambles. Boris has consistently failed to take strong enough measures, he has *consistently failed to make them easy to understand*,* has consistently failed to make them enforceable*. And as for the Manchester debacle, I am appalled that they have treated public health measures like some sort of commercial negotiation. I can’t see any realistic prospect of Sturgeon being able to close the border but hopefully with the onset of winter the number of holidaymakers from England won’t be such an issue.



We and the people we know in the real world have no difficulty understanding the rules as they apply to us.

In all the online/newspaper quizzes I score 100% - in one yesterday I scored only 7/10 - failing on questions about granny looking after kids (we do no have grandkids), student visiting parents (long past that stage), and large family groups - we do not have an extended family. All the questions about what I can do here and travelling between tiers were correct.

With regard to enforceable, my two daughters in Vancouver report that shops and people in general take more precautions than mandated.

Enforcement should not be an issue.


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## Pat "5mph" (25 Oct 2020)

*Mod Note (take 2!)*
Please quote reputable sources on making statements on this thread, as previously asked - Cheers!




Moderators said:


> *Mod note:*
> 
> Folks, it's come to our notice that some posts on here are sounding like conspiracy theories. Please don't do that - the internet is full of places to share this stuff but we'd like CycleChat not to be one of them.
> 
> ...


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## tom73 (25 Oct 2020)

Confused already by the tiers ? Government has a plan make it even more confusing with tier 3 1/2 or tier 4 a local only temporary lockdown. 
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-latest-plans-tier-4-restrictions-second-wave-736607


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## Flick of the Elbow (25 Oct 2020)

oldwheels said:


> I would'nt bank on lower numbers judging by the present numbers arriving but as I have 2 trips to Oban this coming week I should get a better impression.


Apparently it’s half term in England this week (and next ? I don’t know) so hopefully their numbers will dwindle after that.


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## oldwheels (25 Oct 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Apparently it’s half term in England this week (and next ? I don’t know) so hopefully their numbers will dwindle after that.


In the fairly recent past after the madness of the car racing in 2nd weekend of October most places shut. Those coming to my wife's funeral from the mainland {which had to be postponed due to the aforementioned car event} had difficulty getting accommodation. Mind you there were quite a lot came from afar.


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## Bazzer (25 Oct 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> To be honest, tho i have no medical expertise, i see wearing masks in the street as generally pointless. With regards to enforcement (or lack of) i was referring to actually on buses, trains, not in stations/transport hubs. Yes, the vast vast majority of folks in london are complying, though some folks outside london seem to think otherwise.


In terms of the infection in general spreading, so do I. But personally, I think it shows an element of public spiritedness and it should have been mandatory, (subject to medical exemption), anywhere in public.
This half arsed system we currently have is absurd. No spectators can go to Old Trafford, which seats over 70,000 and has ample room for social distancing, yet a car boot sale a few miles from me, is jammed every Sunday and from the little I have seen of it, social distancing is not part of the lexicography. However, were the same people at the car boot sale to go to a shopping warehouse such as Costco, they would have to wear masks.


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## Blue Hills (25 Oct 2020)

Bazzer said:


> In terms of the infection in general spreading, so do I. But personally, I think it shows an element of public spiritedness and it should have been mandatory, (subject to medical exemption), anywhere in public.
> .


Sorry, to impose something, presumably backed by at least theoretical sanctions and fines, for something you say is essentially useless is I think madness. Folk are suffering enough as it is. That's no way to build consent. People need to see good reasons. And are entitled to them.

I agree of course with masks inside and maintaining social distance.


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## tom73 (25 Oct 2020)

Bazzer said:


> In terms of the infection in general spreading, so do I. But personally, I think it shows an element of public spiritedness and it should have been mandatory, (subject to medical exemption), anywhere in public.
> This half arsed system we currently have is absurd. No spectators can go to Old Trafford, which seats over 70,000 and has ample room for social distancing, yet a car boot sale a few miles from me, is jammed every Sunday and from the little I have seen of it, social distancing is not part of the lexicography. However, were the same people at the car boot sale to go to a shopping warehouse such as Costco, they would have to wear masks.



It would cut out any confusion and be a lot more simple all round for me the medical exemption is too wide and open to miss use.
Spectators in sport grounds as with pubs and other placers saying what's the problem we are covid secure is only part of the picture.
However much you try you can't control groups mixing at some point or meeting up with others on the way and from theses events or venues 
We needed clear public messaging around the risk and methods of transmissions from the start. None of which we are getting leading to more confusion and miss-understanding. Most if not all the guidelines are why too wide open to misuse or all out clear bending of them.
Take football you can't watch the match but nothing to stop a club using a room in the ground. Allowing supporters to watch the the game live on TV. Even if it's a home match as long as the windows facing the pitch are covered. That's allowed one club did it.


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## classic33 (25 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> *It would cut out any confusion and be a lot more simple all round for me the medical exemption is too wide and open to miss us.*
> Spectators in sport grounds as with pubs and other placers saying what's the problem we are covid secure is only part of the picture.
> However much you try you can't control groups mixing at some point or meeting up with others on the way and from theses events or venues
> We needed clear public messaging around the risk and methods of transmissions from the start. None of which we are getting leading to more confusion and miss-understanding. Most if not all the guidelines are why too wide open to misuse or all out clear bending of them.
> Take football you can't watch the match but nothing to stop a club using a room in the ground. Allowing supporters to watch the the game live on TV. Even if it's a home match as long as the windows facing the pitch are covered. That's allowed one club did it.


I for one, refuse to go round wearing a piece of card on a lanyard which tells everyone I've a condition(disability).

Challenged on Saturday as to why I wasn't wearing this lanyard/card combination. Then challenged as to what "allowed me to be exempt". I've the proof on me, but not on public display.


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## tom73 (25 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> I for one, refuse to go round wearing a piece of card on a lanyard which tells everyone I've a condition(disability).
> 
> Challenged on Saturday as to why I wasn't wearing this lanyard/card combination. Then challenged as to what "allowed me to be exempt". I've the proof on me, but not on public display.



I agree with you the wide spread miss-use that the guidelines create is making you and others. Who really need understanding ,acceptance of your right to do what everyone else can do every the more harder. I should have phased it better what I meant was just listing things in such a vague way without even excluding mild form of conditions. Has just lead to many thinking it's say x I have it though it's never an issue so I won't bother. When you see many who could easily not wear one making an effort and other's not willing to as the list say's I don't have to. You do start to think the list need's a bit of work to beef it up to cover ones who can't be bothered and beefed up to fully support ones like you who really can't. Not to forgetting many like you have been willing to at least try. 
For what's it worth I could given the wooly guidelines not wear one. But I'm not willing to exploit things when wearing one is no way a problem for me.


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## classic33 (25 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> I agree with you the wide spread miss-use that the guidelines create is making you and others. Who really need understanding ,acceptance of your right to do what everyone else can do every the more harder. I should have phased it better what I meant was just listing things in such a vague way without even excluding mild form of conditions. Has just lead to many thinking it's say x I have it though it's never an issue so I won't bother. When you see many who could easily not wear one making an effort and other's not willing to as the list say's I don't have to. You do start to think the list need's a bit of work to beef it up to cover ones who can't be bothered and beefed up to fully support ones like you who really can't. Not to forgetting many like you have been willing to at least try.
> For what's it worth I could given the wooly guidelines not wear one. But I'm not willing to exploit things when wearing one is no way a problem for me.


It's not a one off, but it's becoming more commonplace, "Where's your lanyard/card?" It's never been "Where's your mask?", just this piece on public display that some demand be worn.

As for misuse of the system, it's tighter now than when it was first introduced. Split into two tiers, as opposed to the one.


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## roubaixtuesday (25 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> How deadly is Covid?
> 
> But I think (deep down) we know this.



The post is nonsense, claiming (1)50% of Swedes have had the disease and (2)Sweden has herd immunity, and that this demonstrates an IFR of 0.12% (3)

(1) Serology studies in Sweden show infection rates at or below 10%.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31672-X/fulltext

(2) Case numbers in Sweden are currently rising rapidly which immediately falsified any claim of herd immunity. 

(3) Reputable studies of IFR are typically in the range 0.5-1%.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220321809
There are numerous regions with higher *population* fatality rates (Bergamo, NYC) than 0.12%!

Once again, you're posting demonstrably false claims. 

But I think (deep down) you know this


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## Bazzer (25 Oct 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Sorry, to impose something, presumably backed by at least theoretical sanctions and fines, for something you say is essentially useless is I think madness. Folk are suffering enough as it is. That's no way to build consent. People need to see good reasons. And are entitled to them.
> 
> I agree of course with masks inside and maintaining social distance.


I see the world very much black or white, so it seems to me to draw a clear line. (Although I appreciate for the likes of some, such as @classic33 there can be everyday problems). But there are many who look at the current rules and their "grey" edge and look to use it to their advantage,or benefit, either without thinking or caring about, the impact on the wider population. But I am told by Mrs B to try understand others do not see the world the same way.


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## classic33 (25 Oct 2020)

Bazzer said:


> I see the world very much black or white, so it seems to me to draw a clear line. (Although I appreciate for the likes of some, such as @classic33 there can be everyday problems). But there are many who look at the current rules and their "grey" edge and look to use it to their advantage,or benefit, either without thinking or caring about, the impact on the wider population. But I am told by Mrs B to try understand others do not see the world the same way.


You can view it in black and white, there's no issue with that. A set of conditions have been listed as valid reasons for not having to wear a mask, and I along with a load of others, meet those requirements. I'd rather not meet them, then there'd be fewer willing to feel like they have the right to pull me up in the street for not wearing a lanyard/card displaying that I have a disability.


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## qigong chimp (25 Oct 2020)

Moderators said:


> *Mod note:*
> 
> Folks, it's come to our notice that some posts on here are sounding like conspiracy theories. Please don't do that - the internet is full of places to share this stuff but we'd like CycleChat not to be one of them.
> 
> ...


Oh no! The Mods have been nobbled by the lizard people, just as David Messiah Icke foretold...


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## MarkF (25 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Always wary of anyone's own site, pushing the ideas of their own.



That's fair enough, we all post what we believe or want to.

But deaths tell no lies, after all the hysteria, it's not an unusual death year. If you asked anybody to look at charts of deaths per annum from the last 5/10/20/30/40/50+ years and pick out a "pandemic" year, they would not be able to do so, they'd be blindly guessing. Have the lockdowns been for nothing? Yes.


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## classic33 (25 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> That's fair enough, we all post what we believe or want to.
> 
> But deaths tell no lies, after all the hysteria, it's not an unusual death year. If you asked anybody to look at charts of deaths per annum from the last 5/10/20/30/40/50+ years and pick out a "pandemic" year, they would not be able to do so, they'd be blindly guessing. Have the lockdowns been for nothing? Yes.


Me, I wonder what it is they are trying to promote. Often it's just themselves into the public limelight.

BRI by the way, was opened in 1936, officially in 1937, when the stone laying ceremony had taken place.


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## roubaixtuesday (25 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> That's fair enough, we all post what we believe or want to.
> 
> But deaths tell no lies, after all the hysteria, it's not an unusual death year. If you asked anybody to look at charts of deaths per annum from the last 5/10/20/30/40/50+ years and pick out a "pandemic" year, they would not be able to do so, they'd be blindly guessing. Have the lockdowns been for nothing? Yes.



See millennium bug fallacy.


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## Unkraut (25 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> But deaths tell no lies, after all the hysteria, it's not an unusual death year.


This is a point I have been making based virologists here, but with the proviso that this won't be knowable until next year. Personally I would be surprised if it doesn't show at least some increase over the norm, especially with the high death rate so far, and of course depending on how things develop in the next few weeks and months. 


MarkF said:


> Have the lockdowns been for nothing? Yes.


Spain, with a very rigid and long lockdown has had more deaths proportionately than the USA (Julian Nida-Rümelin member of German ethics committee tonight on TV). Not something everybody wants to hear. Nevertheless I think lockdown as a strategy is a point of legitimate debate, saying that they have achieved little is premature.


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## midlife (25 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> That's fair enough, we all post what we believe or want to.
> 
> But deaths tell no lies, after all the hysteria, it's not an unusual death year. If you asked anybody to look at charts of deaths per annum from the last 5/10/20/30/40/50+ years and pick out a "pandemic" year, they would not be able to do so, they'd be blindly guessing. Have the lockdowns been for nothing? Yes.



I thought the Ons stats had already flagged up COVID as a cause of excess deaths? Or am I reading it wrong

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54463511


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## Blue Hills (26 Oct 2020)

Bazzer said:


> I see the world very much black or white, so it seems to me to draw a clear line. (Although I appreciate for the likes of some, such as @classic33 there can be everyday problems). But there are many who look at the current rules and their "grey" edge and look to use it to their advantage,or benefit, either without thinking or caring about, the impact on the wider population. But I am told by Mrs B to try understand others do not see the world the same way.


There will always be idiots/folks who couldn't give a toss bazzer, even with clear rules. I could quote a few examples of folks wearing but not wearing their mask in places where they should be, but i fear i would end up ranting.


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## Blue Hills (26 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> That's fair enough, we all post what we believe or want to.
> 
> But deaths tell no lies, after all the hysteria, it's not an unusual death year. If you asked anybody to look at charts of deaths per annum from the last 5/10/20/30/40/50+ years and pick out a "pandemic" year, they would not be able to do so, they'd be blindly guessing. Have the lockdowns been for nothing? Yes.


Not having a go but can i ask, why do you think that there have been so many lockdowns of one degree or another, not just in england scotland wales northern ireland but all over europe and the world?


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## Moderators (26 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> That's fair enough, we all post what we believe or want to.
> 
> But deaths tell no lies, after all the hysteria, it's not an unusual death year. If you asked anybody to look at charts of deaths per annum from the last 5/10/20/30/40/50+ years and pick out a "pandemic" year, they would not be able to do so, they'd be blindly guessing. Have the lockdowns been for nothing? Yes.



Can you provide a link to that data please? A quick search online suggests the following for the period 20/03/20 to 18/09/20 (source; Public Health England):

53774 excess deaths with 49903 (92.8% of the excess) being where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate..

The overall number of deaths at the time of the report being 1.23 times that which would have been expected during a normal* year.

*Projection modelled using preceding 5 years data.

https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/stati...ality-in-england-week-ending-18-Sep-2020.html


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## Blue Hills (26 Oct 2020)

is that posted as a mod or is it a personal post?
I believe in free speech - and believe that the community can be relied upon to counter arguments if they are thought to need countering.
Plenty of posts are made on all sorts of topics without being immediately accompanied by "hard" or "scientific" data.


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## mjr (26 Oct 2020)

Where does free speech end and disinformation start, though?


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## byegad (26 Oct 2020)

I've given up trying to educate the Covidiots. As an ex copper friend says you can't polish a turd or educate an idiot.
It is very worrying how many people seem to think it's a conspiracy, that every country in the world is part of, and in being part of this conspiracy, has spent huge sums, damaging their own economy, incurring huge debt, all for some kind of scam against the people.
I trust the scientific evidence presented and am taking great care to not catch Covid and pass it on to my vulnerable wife.
But then the Flat Earthers seems to believe that one, along with the Moon landing was a fake brigade we now have Covid19 is a hoax. No wonder the USA elected Trump, people will believe anything, regardless of science, statistics and the number of deaths. I wonder how many people have bought into all of these conspiracies? 
Meanwhile I'm taking off the tinfoil hat and going to have a chat with my mates from Venus, Jupiter and the Sirius system.


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## mjr (26 Oct 2020)

Don't upset the Flat Earthers. You could tip them over the edge!


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## roubaixtuesday (26 Oct 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> is that posted as a mod or is it a personal post?
> I believe in free speech - and believe that the community can be relied upon to counter arguments if they are thought to need countering.
> Plenty of posts are made on all sorts of topics without being immediately accompanied by "hard" or "scientific" data.



@MarkF routinely lobs in misleading or false information on Covid and rarely engages with responses. 

As countering such invariably involves far more effort than the originals, this easily ends up with a constant stream of disinformation. 

Whether the mods do, or do not do anything about this is up to them, but cutting it off would certainly not be any form of infringement of "free speech"; there is no shortage of takers in other places due this kind of conspiracy ideation. Neither cyclechat, nor anywhere else is obliged to publish such if they choose not to.


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## Unkraut (26 Oct 2020)

byegad said:


> I've given up trying to educate the Covidiots.


If you want an example of just how bad this can get, I found an example today on Hitchens' blog (haven't looked this for ages, the following being a good reason for this) from GoodShepherd, who writes:

_Various comments here and elsewhere condemn the general public for being subservient and "co-operating" with the lockdown tyranny, but overlook the fact that people are not *willingly* cooperating, for example with mask wearing, they are doing it *only* because they are being threatened in numerous ways.

That's not a theory, because *the fact* is that few people wore masks anywhere until it was legally forced on them, and in bars/restaurants the non-mask wearing was almost 100%.

So, no, you do not have to wear masks in *any* circumstances, unless forced to go to work/school, or you need urgent medical treatment, unless you *choose* to do so, though obviously that restricts your life, but at least *not your breathing.*

Because this is one of the unacknowledged terrors of this forcible masking regime, because if you notice, nobody in professional sport is made to wear masks *while playing the sport*, because clearly *masks interfere with one's ability to breathe freely.*

If this government, that says it "cares" so much about us it's trying to save us all from the virus, actually cared about our health, especially of older people, then it would immediately make mask wearing voluntary for older people or anybody who feels their ability to breathe is restricted significantly by mask wearing.

I would suggest a blanket lifting of compulsory mask wearing on all over 60s, and a scheme whereby people could quickly get *official medical exemption* by a quick review of their medical records establishing they have mental or physical health problems that put them at risk ..._

This isn't all of the comment, but it is enough to reveal a level (absence) of knowledge and understanding of the virus that beggars belief. The worst possible thing you could do is stop over 60's from wearing masks, genuine medical conditions excepted.


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## MarkF (26 Oct 2020)

Didn't I post an earlier table showing the difficulty in locating a pandemic year? I am sure that I did. However, I'll be sure to include links from now on for any figure/% claim.

I am not a conspiracy theorist nor a Covid denier nor an anti-vaxxer. I believe we've hopelessly overeacted, it was what I was frightened of once I saw the Wuhan lockdown. I believe the pandemic was over in June but we continue to try to control another respiratory virus endemic in our society with pointless & destructive policies, policies based on figures that do not stand up. I firmly believe the cure is proving worse than the disease, that is not in any way a controversial opinion.

The opinions in this thread are very much the same, if I respond then I'll end up engaging with multiple posters, all with the same opinion on the same point, so although I don't want to appear to be rude, I've only got one life......

Professor Carl Heneghan (University of Oxfords centre for evidence based medicine)

The ten worst Covid data failures.


----------



## MarkF (26 Oct 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Not having a go but can i ask, why do you think that there have been so many lockdowns of one degree or another, not just in england scotland wales northern ireland but all over europe and the world?


 
I am not conspiracy theorist so am struggling, it seems Sweden got it largely right with a sensible "light lockdown" so beyond reputation/career saving, why we are continuing down this crazy path I do not know.


----------



## Adam4868 (26 Oct 2020)

Don't know if anyone has read this..
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-12-minute-covid-testing-service-within-weeks

120 quid ! whilst people have to travel for hours for a test.Surely if Boots can do this the goverment could have ?
Or is it just a case of capatalism at its best.


----------



## classic33 (26 Oct 2020)

byegad said:


> I've given up trying to educate the Covidiots.* As an ex copper friend says you can't polish a turd *or educate an idiot.
> It is very worrying how many people seem to think it's a conspiracy, that every country in the world is part of, and in being part of this conspiracy, has spent huge sums, damaging their own economy, incurring huge debt, all for some kind of scam against the people.
> I trust the scientific evidence presented and am taking great care to not catch Covid and pass it on to my vulnerable wife.
> But then the Flat Earthers seems to believe that one, along with the Moon landing was a fake brigade we now have Covid19 is a hoax. No wonder the USA elected Trump, people will believe anything, regardless of science, statistics and the number of deaths. I wonder how many people have bought into all of these conspiracies?
> Meanwhile I'm taking off the tinfoil hat and going to have a chat with my mates from Venus, Jupiter and the Sirius system.


..
Instructions here


----------



## midlife (26 Oct 2020)

I didn't think the rapid tests have regulatory approval so not used as part of track and trace?


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## Moderators (26 Oct 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> is that posted as a mod or is it a personal post?
> I believe in free speech - and believe that the community can be relied upon to counter arguments if they are thought to need countering.
> Plenty of posts are made on all sorts of topics without being immediately accompanied by "hard" or "scientific" data.



It's a Mods post - the Mods a/c is not used for personal posts. Mods posts sent from personal a/c's (it's often faster and easier to do this) are clearly marked with 'Mod note' etc

The Mods too believe in freedom of speech. And, yes, the community can be relied upon to counter arguments etc.

Re the CV pandemic. Early on it was recognised that the various related threads would not only serve as a debate format but as an information service for our members. To this end we asked that posts containing information represented as fact include the source where possible. 

As it is not possible for us to check every post made we rely on other members to report posts where this is not the case. Where we think the report requires follow-up action we will intervene by eg cleaning up the post, deleting the post, pm'ing the member to clarify the situation or directly intervening in-thread etc.

In this particular instance we had received reports, the statement was very powerful and we simply asked for a source link from the posting member.

For the record this action neither confirms or denies the accuracy of the posted information from the Mods team perspective - it's simply requesting the verification of the validity/accuracy of the posted factually presented information on behalf of our other members.

The original Mods post contained what we think is the official state of affairs in England up to the included date from an already accepted source perspective for clarity on behalf of our members. It is not an attempt to enter the debate - apologies if it comes across that way.

As an aside; one of the things we have debated as a team is the presentation of information as fact or opinion. It's an unfinished debate but the current view would be that content presented as facts should continue to be supplied with the appropriate links or reference to source material. In the case of opinions maybe the posting member should make clear that this is purely personal opinion within the post?

Perhaps if anyone has any ideas that would help they could send us a Contact Us message - please do not do this from in-thread.


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## MarkF (26 Oct 2020)

A poster once asked where I got my information from and I answered honestly, I was first pointed to Dr Daniels by a doctor and it led from there..... The censorship of some alarmed me, they were being censored for offering a different opinion.

ONS stats, below normal spring due to light flu and late arriving virus, back to normal since June. Might stay below normal till week 52? Might not, but I think a lot of people who would now be entering hospital for "last days" died in spring and the covid arrivals appear to be far more robust than then. The death excess (% per population) is not likely for 2020 to stand out as an unusual year if this pattern continues.


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## matticus (26 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> View attachment 554649


" The overall death rate for England from 1 January to 31 July 2020 was the highest since 2009 "
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3348
... so although Mark's graph above looks like really bad figures, it might be fair to say that in a long-term context, 2020 is no record-breaking year.

p.s. anyone know why week 35-36 is such a safe period?? I might plan my skydiving lessons around that ...


----------



## Blue Hills (26 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> I am not conspiracy theorist so am struggling, it seems Sweden got it largely right with a sensible "light lockdown" so beyond reputation/career saving, why we are continuing down this crazy path I do not know.


an honest thoughtful answer - thanks.
Jury maybe out on sweden's approach.


----------



## mjr (26 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Didn't I post an earlier table showing the difficulty in locating a pandemic year? I am sure that I did. [...]


Well can you find it in a search? I didn't.

Elsewhere, I did find this graph of UK excess deaths. I think I can see 1958's Asian Flu pandemic, 1962's Big Freeze (and a particularly deadly London smog, the last before "clean air" laws) and 1969's Hong Kong Flu pandemic, among others. (edited because I got my flus backwards)







matticus said:


> " The overall death rate for England from 1 January to 31 July 2020 was the highest since 2009 "
> https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3348
> ... so although Mark's graph above looks like really bad figures, it might be fair to say that in a long-term context, 2020 is no record-breaking year.


A pandemic would have to be as-lethal-as-possible and completely mishandled by governments to overcome the whole-society improvements in general health, advances in healthcare and better homes compared to 100 years ago.



matticus said:


> p.s. anyone know why week 35-36 is such a safe period?? I might plan my skydiving lessons around that ...


The summer Bank Holiday and generally schools restarting, when lots of people stop summer travels and any killer heatwave is usually long gone? Maybe you'd get hospital space more easily then, but I guess it depends how hard your skydiving fails. Maybe you'd get mortuary space more readily too!



Blue Hills said:


> an honest thoughtful answer - thanks.
> Jury maybe out on sweden's approach.


Jury's still out on all approaches, really. Sweden hasn't done well so far, compared to its neighbours. But I echo the thanks to @MarkF for his answers, even if I think he's still incomplete and listening to people who have been very wrong and not acknowledged that AFAIK.


----------



## matticus (26 Oct 2020)

> > matticus said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Oh sure - but I've quoted a comparison with 2009 (I didn't have a graph for all years, sorry). I don't think long-term healthcare improvements will impact on those variations.


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## mjr (26 Oct 2020)

matticus said:


> Oh sure - but I've quoted a comparison with 2009 (I didn't have a graph for all years, sorry). I don't think long-term healthcare improvements will impact on those variations.


Sorry: I was commenting on it not being record-breaking "in a long-term context". To break a long-term excess deaths record now would probably require something like a disaster rendering thousands of homes uninhabitable.


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## matticus (26 Oct 2020)

Indeedy.


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## mjr (27 Oct 2020)

144 cases from 333 tests at a third meat packery in mid-Norfolk. Rest of workers now to be tested. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-54694174


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## SpokeyDokey (27 Oct 2020)

Communications in the coronavirus crisis: lessons for the second wave.

Interesting article re the challenges faced in disseminating key information to the UK population.

Includes views re decline in trust in Gov' and Media communications, public receptiveness to information, information inequality etc. Report is based on data up until mid-August:

https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/communications-coronavirus-crisis-lessons-second-wave


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## Unkraut (27 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> 144 cases from 333 tests at a third meat packery in mid-Norfolk. Rest of workers now to be tested. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-54694174


What is it with meat factories? Two serious cases of mass infection here. Cheap labour from eastern Europe with naff working conditions.


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## PK99 (27 Oct 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Don't know if anyone has read this..
> https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-12-minute-covid-testing-service-within-weeks
> 
> 120 quid ! whilst people have to travel for hours for a test.Surely if Boots can do this the goverment could have ?
> Or is it just a case of capatalism at its best.



The boots test is 97% accurate (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/advice/new-boots-covid-test-means-holidaymakers/)

much less than the official NHS testing


----------



## PK99 (27 Oct 2020)

Unkraut said:


> What is it with meat factories? Two serious cases of mass infection here. Cheap labour from eastern Europe with naff working conditions.



_In Germany, public health authorities have been grappling with a huge covid-19 outbreak in Gütersloh, North Rhine-Westphalia. More than 1500 of 7000 workers tested positive for covid-19, and 640 000 residents of two affected counties were returned to lockdown conditions.4 At one of Portugal’s biggest poultry slaughterhouses, at least 129 of the 300 workers contracted covid-19.5 
...
Slaughterhouses and meat processing plants are favourable environments for SARS-CoV-2 transmission.17 The virus thrives in lower temperatures and very high or very low relative humidity. Metallic surfaces retain live viruses for longer than other environments.89 A dense production of aerosols combining dust, feathers, and faeces is produced in the plants, and intense water use carries materials extensively over surfaces. Workers must speak loudly or shout over the noise, releasing more droplets and spreading them further.10 Workplaces are crowded, and social distancing is difficult. _

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj...require intensive public health interventions.


----------



## johnblack (27 Oct 2020)

Unkraut said:


> What is it with meat factories? Two serious cases of mass infection here. Cheap labour from eastern Europe with naff working conditions.


It's their living conditions that are a big factor, they work shifts, so live in a house on shifts too, one in the door one out the door, large numbers per house all working in the same place.


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> But I echo the thanks to @MarkF for his answers, even if I think he's still incomplete and listening to people who have been very wrong and not acknowledged that AFAIK.



For clarification, I think the CC Covid group think is very wrong and that Professor Carl Heneghan director of the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine is correct. Beyond one lawyer and one engineer*, *every other person I take Covid information from is a senior medical professional with a long career behind them.



SpokeyDokey said:


> Communications in the coronavirus crisis: lessons for the second wave.
> 
> Interesting article re the challenges faced in disseminating key information to the UK population.
> 
> ...



Interesting read and it's been illuminating how the government misinformation and tech giant censorship is readily accepted by many, that is very alarming to me. Ofcoms covid guidelines are scandalous, they stopped most debate from spring leading to a fine for a Notts radio station simply for having a bonkers phone-in guest talk 5G nonsense! With Ofcom input along with the government being the largest advertsing spender, the truth is nowhere to be seen. Without mainstream dissent this led to Vallance & Whitty being able to display a projection/prediction, with no questions allowed, that both will have known (with their professional history) to be a load of old cobblers. They wilfully misled people.

Now we have the Danish mask fiasco where they cannot get a medical journal to publish their findings, so we can safely surmise that they have arrived at a negative conclusion. However, I am happy to believe that there may be a concurrent study with a positive conclusion. The censorship is wrong.


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## classic33 (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> For clarification, I think the CC Covid group think is very wrong and that Professor Carl Heneghan director of the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine is correct. Beyond one lawyer and one engineer*, *every other person I take Covid information from is a senior medical professional with a long career behind them.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Wearing a bandage as opposed to a mask

_The researchers behind a large and unique Danish study on the effect of wearing a mask even have great difficulty in getting their research results published. One of the participating professors in the study admits that the still secret research result can be perceived as 'controversial'.

For weeks, media and researchers around the world have been waiting with increasing impatience for the publication of a large Danish study on the effect - or lack thereof - of wearing a bandage in public space here during the corona pandemic.

Now, one of the researchers who has been involved in the study can state that the finished research result has been rejected by at least three of the world's absolutely leading medical journals.

These include The Lancet, The New England Journal of Medicine and the American Medical Association's journal JAMA.

"They all said no," says the professor, dr. with. and chief physician at the research department at North Zealand Hospital, Christian Torp-Pedersen.

However, the professor does not want to give the reasons for the journals.

"We can not start discussing what they are dissatisfied with, because in that case we must also explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss that until it is published," explains Christian Torp-Pedersen.

"The study was initiated at the end of April after a grant of five million kroner from the Salling Foundations. It involved as many as 6,000 Danes, half of whom had to wear bandages in the public space over a long period of time. The other half was selected as the control group.

A large part of the test participants were employees of Salling Group's supermarkets: Bilka, Føtex and Netto."

Given the results are yet to be published, or even made public knowledge, how is it possible to comment on it._


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## Mo1959 (27 Oct 2020)

Not very encouraging reading 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873


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## SpokeyDokey (27 Oct 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Not very encouraging reading
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873



It's not is it.

Read it this morning and I think it said it hadn't been peer reviewed yet.


----------



## Julia9054 (27 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> It's not is it.
> 
> Read it this morning and I think it said it hadn't been peer reviewed yet.


Anecdotal, I know but a couple we know came back from their Italian ski holiday in February both with a nasty dose of flu - identical symptoms.
About 2 months ago, the husband took part in one of these randomised population studies looking for antibodies. He was found to have antibodies.
The wife, out of curiosity, took a private antibody test last week. Her test was negative.


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## Blue Hills (27 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> It's not is it.
> 
> Read it this morning and I think it said it hadn't been peer reviewed yet.


let's hope then.
But, yes, on the face of it it is hellish news.
If my faith hadn't gone post sunday school it would have gone down the plughole in the face of this hell.


----------



## mjr (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> For clarification, I think the CC Covid group think is very wrong and that Professor Carl Heneghan director of the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine is correct.



Instead of posting that professor's past covid bloopers, this time let's have a blast from 2012:


T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> If that fails(your drivel goes un-noticed) then you must find an abstract quote of either, the BMJ or Dr Carl Heneghan(sp) This will ensure that the advice you give is as blatantly incorrect as possible.





MarkF said:


> Ofcoms covid guidelines are scandalous,


OK, I'll bite: which of the guidelines do you disagree with and find scandalous? In case you don't actually have a copy yet and are relying on what idiots are pasting on fakebook, they're linked on https://www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-a.../guidance/broadcast-standards-and-coronavirus



> they stopped most debate from spring leading to a fine for a Notts radio station simply for having a bonkers phone-in guest talk 5G nonsense!


That link also lists the sanctions Ofcom have imposed about covid: no Notts radio station has been fined for that. They might have been fined for other reasons, of course.


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## midlife (27 Oct 2020)

With 219 cases per 100,000 per week I'm surprised we haven't been put in tier 2 here in Carlisle. Is there any government rules on when they put you up a tier. Don't remember seeing any.


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## IaninSheffield (27 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Wearing a bandage as opposed to a mask
> 
> _The researchers behind a large and unique Danish study on the effect of wearing a mask even have great difficulty in getting their research results published. One of the participating professors in the study admits that the still secret research result can be perceived as 'controversial'.
> 
> ...


Translation error?


----------



## IaninSheffield (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Now we have the Danish mask fiasco where they cannot get a medical journal to publish their findings, so we can safely surmise that they have arrived at a negative conclusion.


Three rejections is more common than not. 'Rejection rates of various top-tier journals including ours vary between 80 and 85%.' Disheartening for authors, but some might argue a strength of the peer review process.


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## midlife (27 Oct 2020)

367 more deaths reported.

Weekend lag aside it looks like more cases are translating into more fatalities. 

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...navirus-cases-and-further-367-deaths-12116066


----------



## randynewmanscat (27 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Instead of posting that professor's past covid bloopers, this time let's have a blast from 2012:
> 
> 
> OK, I'll bite: which of the guidelines do you disagree with and find scandalous? In case you don't actually have a copy yet and are relying on what idiots are pasting on fakebook, they're linked on https://www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-a.../guidance/broadcast-standards-and-coronavirus
> ...


The only sanction against a radio station regarding 5G misinformation that I am aware of this year was a warning to Uckfield FM (community station) It was due to a snake oil woman being allowed to distribute gross misinformation on several fronts with only weak challenges by the presenter, no fine imposed.
Snake oil saleswoman Kate Shemirani exemplifies a lot of what is wrong in this world as far as I am concerned, wilful ignorance in the pursuit of money* without any care of harm done. It was upped on spewtube with many supportive comments and counter comments, might still be, I kept reporting it but nothing was done. More people subscribe to her general distrust of science/government than is healthy for our societies, I find that worrying. Of course shes an anti-vaxxer.
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/ass...iams,-Uckfield-FM,-28-February-2020,-0900.pdf
*Usual income streams from Patreon, Gofundme for a couple of weeks before it was disallowed and various useless and utterly bogus dietary supplements.
Iv'e looked for the most lurid story about this woman who aided by a spineless presenter caused a little community station to receive a spanking from OFCOM. This one ticks all the boxes and for me hilarious, she does know David Icke.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...r-Kate-Shemirani-dangerous-woman-Britain.html


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## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

Interesting and highly critical article in Time on the Swedish strategy. 

_The Swedish way has yielded little but death and misery. And, this situation has not been honestly portrayed to the Swedish people or to the rest of the world_.

https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/


----------



## Bazzer (27 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> With 219 cases per 100,000 per week I'm surprised we haven't been put in tier 2 here in Carlisle. Is there any government rules on when they put you up a tier. Don't remember seeing any.


I am assuming there is a basket of factors. My eldest who lives in Gtr Manchester was frustrated for several weeks that her town was subject to a higher tier than where Mrs B and I live, even though a published rate of infections showed higher figures where we live. Indeed we were all surprised when we were not swept up as part of the Manchester/Liverpool imposition.


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## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> 367 more deaths reported.
> 
> Weekend lag aside it looks like more cases are translating into more fatalities.
> 
> http://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...navirus-cases-and-further-367-deaths-12116066



Deaths show a relentless close to exponential rise since mid September with a doubling time about 10 days:







Nobody seems to believe the tier system will make much difference, so England deaths at least can be expected to continue to increase, with today's daily exceptional total routine in a week or two, and exceeded most days in a month's time.

Beyond that, who knows? Deaths are baked in almost a month ahead. The government in England seems to have no upper bound on what is an acceptable casualty rate and no understanding of what exponential growth means will happen next. 

Yet another U turn, and thousands upon thousands of unnecessary deaths caused by yet more prevarication seem near certain, the only question being how many corpses are needed to force the change.


----------



## classic33 (27 Oct 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> Translation error?


Possible*, but if the contents/results are unknown, it's impossible to comment on the study/research.

*They got it right once, if they meant mask, not bandage.


----------



## BoldonLad (27 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> True that ever happens the old ways have mostly gone a massive long over due economic rebalance is coming. What ever that will look like we don’t know but we know have to fight infectious diseases what works and what’s effective. So we can either follow the science and tried and tested public health. Or forget it and blunder on.*Some part of world have understood that from the start and are much better if for it.* The one thing that’s going all this is Covid deal with that and much of rest will be a hell of a lot more simple.



Examples?


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## BoldonLad (27 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> I thought the Ons stats had already flagged up *COVID as a cause of excess deaths?* Or am I reading it wrong
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54463511



Yes, but it is not Covid infection which is killing people, it is the hysterical reaction, which means that people either are not or cannot seek medical help for conditions which, if undetected/untreated may be fatal.

Have you tried to see a GP lately?


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## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, but it is not Covid infection which is killing people, it is the hysterical reaction, which means that people either are not or cannot seek medical help for conditions which, if undetected/untreated may be fatal.



This is clearly not the case for excess deaths, the vast majority of which were early in the first wave, whereas since then, excess deaths have actually been below normal. 

Why are you spreading hysteria about something which has demonstrably not happened?

[Clearly it is a big concern for the future, but not as yet a major killer]


----------



## BoldonLad (27 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This is clearly not the case for excess deaths, the vast majority of which were early in the first wave, whereas since then, excess deaths have actually been below normal.
> 
> Why are you spreading hysteria about something which has demonstrably not happened?
> 
> [Clearly it is a big concern for the future, but not as yet a major killer]



"Covid deaths" are themselves not necessarily as a result of Covid as such, Covid deaths, according to the daily outpourings from BBC etc, are those who die of WHATEVER CAUSE within 28 days of a positive test for Covid. 

Also, the "Covid Factor" in not diagnoses, is commented on frequently, on mainstream news.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> "Covid deaths" are themselves not necessarily as a result of Covid as such, Covid deaths, according to the daily outpourings from BBC etc, are those who die of WHATEVER CAUSE within 28 days of a positive test for Covid.
> 
> Also, the "Covid Factor" in not diagnoses, is commented on frequently, on mainstream news.



And yet, these deaths you'd like to believe are from something else happen exactly when you'd expect from the pandemic. 

Probably just coincidence, I suppose. 

Anyway, you know best and doubtless have a very good reason why epidemiologists are hiding the truth. 

I do agree there must be a "Covid Factor", just that so far, its effect isn't visible in overall mortality. It may well manifest over coming months.


----------



## BoldonLad (27 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> And yet, these deaths you'd like to believe are from something else happen exactly when you'd expect from the pandemic.
> 
> Probably just coincidence, I suppose.
> 
> ...



I don't recall saying I know best? I just don't happen to agree 100% with you.

I don't recall saying that epidemiologists are hiding the truth, either. It would appear, not surprisingly, with such a new virus/disease there is some doubt as to what the truth is.


----------



## classic33 (27 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> And yet, these deaths you'd like to believe are from something else happen exactly when you'd expect from the pandemic.
> 
> Probably just coincidence, I suppose.
> 
> ...


The less talked about* side of this year has been the withdrawal of routine hospital appointments for long term health problems. Life long, has been Grand Mal seizures that develop into status epilepticus.
https://www.epilepsy.com/learn/challenges-epilepsy/seizure-emergencies/status-epilepticus

I was under investigation for one, living with two others. I'm now having to manage all three myself. There's certain to be more in a similar situation.


*Unless it's been along the lines of _"shut them away, so the rest of us can get on with what we want to do"._


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> The less talked about* side of this year has been the withdrawal of routine hospital appointments for long term health problems. Life long, has been Grand Mal seizures that develop into status epilepticus.
> https://www.epilepsy.com/learn/challenges-epilepsy/seizure-emergencies/status-epilepticus
> 
> I was under investigation for one, living with two others. I'm now having to manage all three myself. There's certain to be more in a similar situation.
> ...



Agree, the impact on routine healthcare has been very large. 

All the best with your condition.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> It would appear, not surprisingly, with such a new virus/disease there is some doubt as to what the truth is.



In which case you'll be able to find reputable sources who agree with


BoldonLad said:


> Yes, but it is not Covid infection which is killing people


----------



## Bazzer (27 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> The less talked about* side of this year has been the withdrawal of routine hospital appointments for long term health problems. Life long, has been Grand Mal seizures that develop into status epilepticus.
> https://www.epilepsy.com/learn/challenges-epilepsy/seizure-emergencies/status-epilepticus
> 
> I was under investigation for one, living with two others. I'm now having to manage all three myself. There's certain to be more in a similar situation.
> ...


I couldn't agree more. A friend's wife who has macular degeneration had eye appointments delayed. When she eventually got to see the consultant, after her examination his comment was "You should have been here sooner". My friend bluntly pointed out it was the hospital which had repeatedly cancelled appointments. 
My Mum is desperate for an MRI on her spine. Her own has GP vocally expressed to my sister his disgust with the behaviour of Mum's local hospital.


----------



## classic33 (27 Oct 2020)

Bazzer said:


> I couldn't agree more. A friend's wife who has macular degeneration had eye appointments delayed. When she eventually got to see the consultant, after her examination his comment was "You should have been here sooner". My friend bluntly pointed out it was the hospital which had repeatedly cancelled appointments.
> My Mum is desperate for an MRI on her spine. Her own has GP vocally expressed to my sister his disgust with the behaviour of Mum's local hospital.


Locally, the outpatient appointments were just cancelled. At least one operation also cancelled, an extended EEG(24 hour) in May cancelled.

As for trying to get an appointment to see a GP, wouldn't it be a bit unfair on them, to expect them to sort such problems out?

I'm less concerned about this virus than the three conditions I had before this kicked off. There's little they can do, should I happen to catch it. I make hospitals nervous, treatment wise. Simple, everyday medications can't be used/given.


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> OK, I'll bite: which of the guidelines do you disagree with and find scandalous? In case you don't actually have a copy yet and are relying on what idiots are pasting on fakebook, they're linked on https://www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-a.../guidance/broadcast-standards-and-coronavirus
> 
> That link also lists the sanctions Ofcom have imposed about covid: no Notts radio station has been fined for that. They might have been fined for other reasons, of course.



FYI and others, I do not do Facebook, nor do I actually post anything on any other internet forum, beyond buying a bike on CTC.

Ofcom ambiguously prevents any serious debate.

_However, we expect broadcasters to be alert to the potential for significant harm to audiences related to the coronavirus, which could include:_

_health claims related to the virus which may be harmful;_
_medical advice which may be harmful; and,_
_accuracy or material misleadingness in programmes in relation to the virus or public policy regarding it._
AKA do not say/post anything not agreeing with the government narrative.

Found it! The link, he was a health professional. As I said to a mod earlier, it's hard to link sometimes as when I look back my information is no longer there.........this time it is on Ofcom's own site.

Radio station sanctioned for misleading coronavirus interview


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

2 minute read

_Thus, the Western World has been encouraged by their lack of responsibility coupled with uncontrolled media and academic errors to commit suicide for an excess burden of death of one month. Surely we or someone we know can do something about this! _

From March but re-tweeted today as he is safe in the knowledge that he was right.


----------



## classic33 (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> 2 minute read
> 
> _Thus, the Western World has been encouraged by their lack of responsibility coupled with uncontrolled media and academic errors to commit suicide for an excess burden of death of one month. Surely we or someone we know can do something about this! _
> 
> From March but re-tweeted today as he is safe in the knowledge that he was right.


He declared the US pandemic over on the 22nd August, with 170,000 deaths.


----------



## tom73 (27 Oct 2020)

Faced with a virus no one had seen before and seeing that it almost brought down other health services. The total lack of preparation, PPE, capacity, staff and growing numbers of critically ill patients. The health service had little choice. But to cut back on some core hospital functions. Emergency care will always take priority. Even in services that can still work due to having to work with COVID all round means they simple are not able to work at levels before. Clinicians don’t like cutting back on things but had no choice. No county can afford to have it’s health service collapse the cost is simple not worth playing. Look at Belgium now they are the brink asking doctors and nurses to work even if COVID +. Staff within the service are doing all they can I know it means little if you can’t get the tests or opp you need. We never got on top of COVID and even now even more opps are being put back again. The health service can’t be held responsible for the total lack of a plan of how to deal with this. Give them the tools and they can fix this but sadly that won’t happen.


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

How deadly is Covid?


----------



## midlife (27 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Faced with a virus no one had seen before and seeing that it almost brought down other health services. The total lack of preparation, PPE, capacity, staff and growing numbers of critically ill patients. The health service had little choice. But to cut back on some core hospital functions. Emergency care will always take priority. Even in services that can still work due to having to work with COVID all round means they simple are not able to work at levels before. Clinicians don’t like cutting back on things but had no choice. No county can afford to have it’s health service collapse the cost is simple not worth playing. Look at Belgium now they are the brink asking doctors and nurses to work even if COVID +. Staff within the service are doing all they can I know it means little if you can’t get the tests or opp you need. We never got on top of COVID and even now even more opps are being put back again. The health service can’t be held responsible for the total lack of a plan of how to deal with this. Give them the tools and they can fix this but sadly that won’t happen.




As far as I am aware the NHS should be running 90% of services pre covid.....

Back in March the service I sort of run for an NHS hospital was shut down, I was placed on a redeployment register. Suggested fatalities for Cumbria 5000

I planned for the expected storm and sorted out my service in case I didn't survive. Put everything in order so that someone could pick up the pieces. 

Pondered the songs for my funeral as I was in the firing line.

Went into work every day as did all patient facing NHS staff here and waited... Worked remote while at work. 

Still go into work every day trying to max out what I can do to treat patients in the circumstances.

I guess this is repeated throughout the NHS?


----------



## classic33 (27 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Faced with a virus no one had seen before and seeing that it almost brought down other health services. The total lack of preparation, PPE, capacity, staff and growing numbers of critically ill patients. The health service had little choice. But to cut back on some core hospital functions. Emergency care will always take priority. Even in services that can still work due to having to work with COVID all round means they simple are not able to work at levels before. Clinicians don’t like cutting back on things but had no choice. No county can afford to have it’s health service collapse the cost is simple not worth playing. Look at Belgium now they are the brink asking doctors and nurses to work even if COVID +. Staff within the service are doing all they can I know it means little if you can’t get the tests or opp you need. We never got on top of COVID and even now even more opps are being put back again. The health service can’t be held responsible for the total lack of a plan of how to deal with this. Give them the tools and they can fix this but sadly that won’t happen.


I've too much respect for those on the front line staff in hospitals to have a go at them. Now or ever.

If I'm blaming anyone, it's those higher up in offices/premises totally seperate from the hospitals. They seldom see day to day life, much less the night life in the hospital. Yet the orders trickle down from the top. Those are the ones I blame.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> How deadly is Covid?



That's the second time you posted an uncommented link to that nonsense.

Once again, here are the very obvious reasons it's completely false, copied from upthread where you predictably didn't respond. 


_The post is nonsense, claiming (1)50% of Swedes have had the disease and (2)Sweden has herd immunity, and that this demonstrates an IFR of 0.12% (3)

(1) Serology studies in Sweden show infection rates at or below 10%.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31672-X/fulltext

(2) Case numbers in Sweden are currently rising rapidly which immediately falsified any claim of herd immunity.

(3) Reputable studies of IFR are typically in the range 0.5-1%.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220321809
There are numerous regions with higher *population* fatality rates (Bergamo, NYC) than 0.12%!

Once again, you're posting demonstrably false claims.

But I think (deep down) you know this_


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> He declared the US pandemic over on the 22nd August, with 170,000 deaths.


 
I don't have any USA graphs/tables to hand (but can get then easily enough), but was/is he far out? The pandemic, not an endemic virus. After all UK pandemic was over in June.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> After all UK pandemic was over in June.



Another false statement without a reference. 

Quelle surprise.


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> That's the second time you posted an uncommented link to that nonsense.
> 
> Once again, here are the very obvious reasons it's completely false, copied from upthread where you predictably didn't respond.
> 
> ...



Yeah, I recall you belittling another poster with hysterical claims of 107000 (or was it 170000) to die by Xmas if pointless measures were not taken? Own house in order please.


----------



## classic33 (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> How deadly is Covid?


Any proof that herd immunity works?

After all the best "herds" should have been at universities, where the "populations" could be controlled. That's not been the case though.

Individual human behavior is harder control than any study shows.


----------



## classic33 (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> I don't have any USA graphs/tables to hand (but can get then easily enough), but was/is he far out? The pandemic, not an endemic virus. After all UK pandemic was over in June.


The post you quoted simply stated that he declared the US pandemic over on the date given by him with the total number of deaths as given by him.

What's been happening in the US since then?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Yeah, I recall you belittling another poster with hysterical claims of 107000 (or was it 170000) to die by Xmas if pointless measures were not taken? Own house in order please.



I've no idea what you're on about. 

Your post was false, for the reasons given.

Your subsequent post was also false (and ludicrous - pandemic over in June!).

You repeatedly post false and misleading information, fail to respond to posts correcting you, then repost the same, false information.


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I've no idea what you're on about.
> 
> Your post was false, for the reasons given.
> 
> ...



You forgot your post?

If there are no excess deaths then there is no pandemic. Now show me a graph /table for your predicted deaths by xmas and let's see how you get on. Soon pls now we are on link demand fest.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

Another false statement from @MarkF 

_If there are no excess deaths then there is no pandemic._

WHO definition:
_A pandemic is defined as “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people”. The classical definition includes nothing about population immunity, virology or disease severity.

By this definition, pandemics can be said to occur annually in each of the temperate southern and northern hemispheres, given that seasonal epidemics cross international boundaries and affect a large number of people. However, seasonal epidemics are not considered pandemics_

You're just making things up.

And neither I, nor anyone else can predict what deaths will be by xmas, because it depends how we respond.


----------



## classic33 (27 Oct 2020)

Why is Sweden going against what he said would happen, since mid September, if he was correct on what he says.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> You forgot your post?



Give me a link, go ahead.


----------



## Rusty Nails (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> How deadly is Covid?



A genuine question. Do you read any scientific reports that disagree with your opinion or do you look for those experts that you agree with? This is not just about your point of view as I think that many people, with different opinions, have a pov and then quote the evidence that goes along with it, rather than weighing everything up and then making up their minds.

I must admit I do not have any magic solution about how we get out of this, and no answer to the questions about how bad the problem is. I read expert A and he/she seems to sound reasonable and then I read expert B and they come up with an opposite view.

I am not going to spend hours a day analysing all the evidence, or whether A or B has stronger credentials, but I will just carry on mostly sticking to the guidelines and quietly moaning about the restrictions I like least. There are enough experts who get it wrong without me sticking my two-pennorth in. 

It appears to me that so far no government appears to have handled it well except those few who didn't waste time getting started on their approach back in March. The rest, including us despite our government's claims to know what they are doing, are still faffing about trying to put sticking plasters on all the outbreaks.


----------



## tom73 (27 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> As far as I am aware the NHS should be running 90% of services pre covid.....
> 
> Back in March the service I sort of run for an NHS hospital was shut down, I was placed on a redeployment register. Suggested fatalities for Cumbria 5000
> 
> ...



You'd be right it's what you and other do and have done from the start. Working day to day not knowing what may come and did better than many expected. Just in time to do it all again it's going to be a long winter all round. Me and Mrs 73 had the what if chat and talked about plans if the time came. Something which is not something you expect to do just because work suddenly got that bad. Much of the NHS is running at high levels of normal but just as things get going along came the rise in cases. In recent days two large teaching hospitals round my way have had little choice to cancel all elective surgery. They are not the only ones to have yet again make hard choices. The health cost of covid much is still not known will quite possibly way out weigh economic impact.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> He declared the US pandemic over on the 22nd August, with 170,000 deaths.





classic33 said:


> He declared the US pandemic over on the 22nd August, with 170,000 deaths.



He has been consistently and spectacularly wrong from the very start.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.la...coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate?_amp=true

https://www.google.com/amp/s/liorpa...21/the-lethal-nonsense-of-michael-levitt/amp/

So it's no surprise that @MarkF uses him as a source.


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Give me a link, go ahead.



You know by now how useless I am at linking, but I'm trying, it was recent and my reply to you was "It's just not credible" Tbf you were quoting a (bonkers) prediction/projection.


----------



## Rusty Nails (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> You know by now how useless I am at linking, but I'm trying, it was recent and my reply to you was "It's just not credible" Tbf you were quoting a (bonkers) prediction/projection.



That is not how it works.

You are fine at linking to those people who you agree with, then pathetically say you are useless at linking when asked to back up some claim you just drop in.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> You know by now how useless I am at linking, but I'm trying, it was recent and my reply to you was "It's just not credible" Tbf you were quoting a (bonkers) prediction/projection



This is aimed at me, not @classic

So. You're claiming a post of mine which you can't locate was bonkers... 

How about rather than half remembered posts you can't even find, you acknowledge the three completely false posts you made directly above, which I've given you reputable sources directly contradicting?


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> A genuine question. Do you read any scientific reports that disagree with your opinion or do you look for those experts that you agree with? This is not just about your point of view as I think that many people, with different opinions, have a pov and then quote the evidence that goes along with it, rather than weighing everything up and then making up their minds.
> 
> I must admit I do not have any magic solution about how we get out of this, and no answer to the questions about how bad the problem is. I read expert A and he/she seems to sound reasonable and then I read expert B and they come up with an opposite view.
> 
> ...



Of course I do! I read the same as everybody on here and flip flop all the time, but I also read other things, that (again) were prompted by a doctor and it led from there. Into a world of censorship and distinguished people being silenced, this is very alarming to me, something is not right when dissenting views are tech (£) quashed. I like to believe (still) that it's an almighty mess up but carrying on, we'll kill more than the virus would ever have done, Same as my opinion from the start.


----------



## Rusty Nails (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Of course I do! I read the same as everybody on here and *flip flop all the time*, but I also read other things, that (again) were prompted by a doctor and it led from there. *Into a world of censorship and distinguished people being silenced, this is very alarming to me, something is not right when dissenting views are tech (£) quashed. I* like to believe (still) that it's an almighty mess up but carrying on, we'll kill more than the virus would ever have done, Same as my opinion from the start.



So basically a conspiracy theory supporter.

We see a lot of your flopping, but none of your flipping.


----------



## tom73 (27 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> I've too much respect for those on the front line staff in hospitals to have a go at them. Now or ever.
> 
> If I'm blaming anyone, it's those higher up in offices/premises totally seperate from the hospitals. They seldom see day to day life, much less the night life in the hospital. Yet the orders trickle down from the top. Those are the ones I blame.


I know you have and It was not aimed at you I was generally trying to get the point across that how ever angry you are the NHS and it's staff are not the problem hard clinical choices had to be made with the tool they have. The lack of which is down to the government which now has a helping hand of covid to hide behind.


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> So basically a conspiracy theory supporter.
> 
> We see a lot of your flopping, but none of your flipping.


 Wow, for the umpteenth time, I am not a conspiracy supporter. I don't even know what they support.


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This is aimed at me, not @classic
> 
> So. You're claiming a post of mine which you can't locate was bonkers...



Here it is and total bollocks. 200k deaths by Xmas, no wonder people are scared witless.



roubaixtuesday said:


> So, just for @SkipdiverJohn here's a projection of what would happen if we let it rip from here.
> 
> View attachment 551444
> 
> ...




And these last few minutes are the reason I cannot repy all the time, and dip in and out, I'm drawn into multiple "conversations" with posters with the very same opinion. Not that that's wrong but I don't have the time....


----------



## Rusty Nails (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Wow, for the umpteenth time, I am not a conspiracy supporter. I don't even know what they support.


That is exactly what the second part I highlighted is.


----------



## MarkF (27 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> That is not how it works.
> 
> You are fine at linking to those people who you agree with, then pathetically say you are useless at linking when asked to back up some claim you just drop in.


 I've linked, it takes me time........


----------



## classic33 (27 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> You know by now how useless I am at linking, but I'm trying, it was recent and my reply to you was "It's just not credible" Tbf you were quoting a (bonkers) prediction/projection


Something less bonkers,
The original post you quoted


classic33 said:


> The post you quoted simply stated that he declared the US pandemic over on the date given by him with the total number of deaths as given by him.
> 
> What's been happening in the US since then?



As quoted by yourself


classic33 said:


> Give me a link, go ahead.


Why make it seem as though I've asked you to do something I haven't? 
It does no favours for anyone 

Both posts above share the same post Numbers, 6176489 for the post and 14,593 on this thread. Anyone can check for themselves by tapping on the post link.


----------



## classic33 (28 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> I know you have and It was not aimed at you I was generally trying to get the point across that how ever angry you are the NHS and it's staff are not the problem hard clinical choices had to be *made with the tool they have. *The lack of which is down to the government which now has a helping hand of covid to hide behind.


That describes someone, high up, I know. Absolutely no idea what they're doing, and a former council print works manager who never checked his computer before leaving.


----------



## mjr (28 Oct 2020)

Interesting new Android app, helps you record your contacts manually, then expires them automatically after 2 weeks. https://f-droid.org/en/packages/com.apozas.contactdiary/


----------



## BoldonLad (28 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Faced with a virus no one had seen before and seeing that it almost brought down other health services. The total lack of preparation, PPE, capacity, staff and growing numbers of critically ill patients. The health service had little choice. But to cut back on some core hospital functions. Emergency care will always take priority. Even in services that can still work due to having to work with COVID all round means they simple are not able to work at levels before. Clinicians don’t like cutting back on things but had no choice. No county can afford to have it’s health service collapse the cost is simple not worth playing. Look at Belgium now they are the brink asking doctors and nurses to work even if COVID +. Staff within the service are doing all they can I know it means little if you can’t get the tests or opp you need. We never got on top of COVID and even now even more opps are being put back again. *The health service can’t be held responsible* for the total lack of a plan of how to deal with this. Give them the tools and they can fix this but sadly that won’t happen.



So, just what can the many hundreds of quite highly paid "Executives" within the NHS be held responsible for?


----------



## mjr (28 Oct 2020)

Another analysis suggesting thst the UK has been hit so hard because of air pollution: https://www.thejournal.ie/thousands...inked-to-air-pollution-study-5245630-Oct2020/


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Here it is and total bollocks. 200k deaths by Xmas, no wonder people are scared witless.



Unfortunately, it's not bollocks. It's a post by a modelling scientist, James Annan. And if you follow the curve, you'll see its been pretty much exactly correct so far, nearly a month on. As you're so knowledgeable, you'll be able to explain *why* it's wrong, rather than just deny it, yes?

Also, you'll note that both Annan and I were careful to say that it will not happen in reality, because action will be taken to stop it, as it will be unacceptable. I quote:

_Now, this won't be acceptable so people will shield themselves from the carnage and/or govt will make strong interventions to mitigate_

So after posting three false claims in short succession you've followed up with a blatant misrepresentation of a post of mine, together with an insult.

I've no doubt whatever you'll be back posting links to more disinformation very soon, and you'll continue to competely ignore debunking of them too.


----------



## Unkraut (28 Oct 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> So, just what can the many hundreds of quite highly paid "Executives" within the NHS be held responsible for?


I read a tome on Blair's government called Broken Vows by Tom Bower. Not specifically about the NHS but one thing that struck me reading was how Labour made a substantial increase in funding for the NHS only to find a relatively small improvement in outcome.

I think this shows that funding is not the only problem - although with years of austerity behind it the current crisis has undoubtedly been made worse. 

The culture of how it is run by its highly paid executives, and being used as a political football with unending series of reforms - changes for ideological reasons - might be something that should be part of vigorous public debate once the pandemic is over. Now is not the time.


----------



## PK99 (28 Oct 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I read a tome on Blair's government called Broken Vows by Tom Bower. Not specifically about the NHS but one thing that struck me reading was ho*w Labour made a substantial increase in funding for the NHS only to find a relatively small improvement in outcome.*


----------



## tom73 (28 Oct 2020)

https://covidstraighttalk.org 
New Simple and to the point website how to safe you at work and how to stay safe. It's all about M.A.D
Along with some hacks to keep air indoors moving.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (28 Oct 2020)




----------



## PaulB (28 Oct 2020)

I read this slightly worrying article from former tory MP Nick Boles earlier and found myself agreeing with it but couldn't help being concerned for the implications. 

'The large countries which successfully limited the impact of the first wave and prevented the second wave from taking off all deployed some combination of border closures, travel bans, enforced confinement and intrusive monitoring of personal data; China, Vietnam, South Korea. 

The staggering incompetence of the British Government's handling of every aspect of the pandemic should not blind us to the fact that almost all liberal democracies have suffered large numbers of deaths and serious economic distress. We can only hope that liberal democracies do better in rebuilding their economies and restoring social freedom because the authoritarian states have 'won' the pandemic hands down.'


----------



## mjr (28 Oct 2020)

PaulB said:


> [...] former tory MP Nick Boles [...] 'The large countries which successfully limited the impact of the first wave and prevented the second wave from taking off all deployed some combination of border closures, travel bans, enforced confinement and intrusive monitoring of personal data; China, Vietnam, South Korea. [...]'


What intrusive monitoring of personal data did Vietnam do? Border restrictions, enforced quarantine and travel bans, yes, they did.

They've agreed to buy the much-criticised Sputnik V vaccine, so they might not be in the clear yet... https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...russian-covid-19-vaccine-state-media-13020744

And is it really fair to call South Korea an "authoritarian state"? I'm pretty sure most regard the post-1987 sixth republic as an open democracy. Mr Boles is living in the past and I suspect he wrote his conclusion first.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (28 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View attachment 555038



Can you translate please?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Oct 2020)

Our government is indecisive, slow and we will all pay for it later: episode 1001 of N*

Based on current 7 day averages, France has just 20% more deaths than UK, and Germany has 6 times fewer than us. 

France has about double the number of cases, Germany has just half as many. 

Both countries are reported to be entering national lock downs as a result of the "alarming", "out of control" situation. 

The UK was recommended to do so nearly six weeks ago by its own scientific advisors. 

*rule 12 applies, regrettably.


----------



## tom73 (29 Oct 2020)

Just as every alarm bell is ringing out's come's a new Uk anti lock down group linked to the Great Barrington Declaration.
Linked to Karol Sikora the well known crank other "experts" inc Julian Metcalfe of Pret the founder of Pret and ITSU , Lord Sumption, Harvey Goldsmith and a TV psychologist. Julian Metcalfe is so caring ”Society will not recover if we do it again (lockdown) just to save the lives of a few thousand very old or vulnerable people”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...staff-urge-PM-rational-approach-pandemic.html
(Sorry for the daily hate link only one around again say's everything.)


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> the Great Barrington Declaration.



Worth repeating: the great Barrington Declaration is the work of an American Libertarian political pressure group. The "American Institute for Economic Research". The two notable uk scientists associated, Gupta and Heneghan, whilst perfectly reputable, are in a very small minority and have been spectacularly and serially wrong throughout the pandemic. It was not published in any scientific or medical journal. 

The "Jon Snow" memo was an attempt to set the record straight, published in the lancet and with wide support across the scientific and medical world. 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext


----------



## tom73 (29 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Worth repeating: the great Barrington Declaration is the work of an American Libertarian political pressure group. The "American Institute for Economic Research". The two notable uk scientists associated, Gupta and Heneghan, whilst perfectly reputable, are in a very small minority and have been spectacularly and serially wrong throughout the pandemic. It was not published in any scientific or medical journal.
> 
> The "Jon Snow" memo was an attempt to set the record straight, published in the lancet and with wide support across the scientific and medical world.
> 
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext



Indeed one is grounded on nonsense and one is grounded on science hence why Mrs 73 signed the latter.


----------



## mjr (29 Oct 2020)

In The Cycling Podcast: 176: The Grandest Tour stage 22: Woods' smart move 
View: https://audioboom.com/posts/7716030
François Thomazeau opines that the zero cases in the Vuelta bubble shows that basic measures can work to contain this virus. Richard Moore suggests that disciplined athletes like cyclists are good at following such guidance.

So should the world learn from pro cycle racing?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (29 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> In The Cycling Podcast: 176: The Grandest Tour stage 22: Woods' smart move
> View: https://audioboom.com/posts/7716030
> François Thomazeau opines that the zero cases in the Vuelta bubble shows that basic measures can work to contain this virus. Richard Moore suggests that disciplined athletes like cyclists are good at following such guidance.
> 
> So should the world learn from pro cycle racing?




Based on that then yes.

But nothing is going to change our (UK) cultural mindset in decades let alone the period of time we are talking about to have a real impact on our current situation.

Here, whatever advice or instructions that we receive, and despite the validity of said advice and instructions, there will always be an element of society that will self-justify ignoring the 'rules' to suit their own ends.

An outcome of living in a democracy.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (29 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> In The Cycling Podcast: 176: The Grandest Tour stage 22: Woods' smart move
> View: https://audioboom.com/posts/7716030
> François Thomazeau opines that the zero cases in the Vuelta bubble shows that basic measures can work to contain this virus. Richard Moore suggests that disciplined athletes like cyclists are good at following such guidance.
> 
> So should the world learn from pro cycle racing?



What - flood your system with steroids and performance enhancing drugs to the point Covid just bounces off?


----------



## mjr (29 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Here, whatever advice or instructions that we receive, and despite the validity of said advice and instructions, there will always be an element of society that will self-justify ignoring the 'rules' to suit their own ends.
> 
> An outcome of living in a democracy.


Is it, though? Or is the Vuelta actually operating more like a "government by consent" (albeit over 700ish citizens) than the UK's actual government just now, with the Vuelta taking rational-looking measures and explaining them while gov.uk seem to be imposing arbitrary-looking rules unjustified?


----------



## mjr (29 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> What - flood your system with steroids and performance enhancing drugs to the point Covid just bounces off?


 but I think one steroid (dexamethasone IIRC) has already been found helpful so maybe there is something to it!


----------



## classic33 (29 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> In The Cycling Podcast: 176: The Grandest Tour stage 22: Woods' smart move
> View: https://audioboom.com/posts/7716030
> François Thomazeau opines that the zero cases in the Vuelta bubble shows that basic measures can work to contain this virus. Richard Moore suggests that disciplined athletes like cyclists are good at following such guidance.
> 
> So should the world learn from pro cycle racing?



This the same race where five positive cases/tests were returned earlier this month.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (29 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Is it, though? Or is the Vuelta actually operating more like a "government by consent" (albeit over 700ish citizens) than the UK's actual government just now, with the Vuelta taking rational-looking measures and explaining them while gov.uk seem to be imposing arbitrary-looking rules unjustified?



I think that it just comes down to the way we are culturally.

We generally follow rules but we have an open and questioning attitude towards them which I think is healthy. But, in circumstances like this, maybe that works against us?

With the www. and it's easy access to information and the ability to rapidly disseminate opinion we now have a situation where 'everyone is an expert' and knows what's best - usually to suit their own personal circumstances. Hence some people ignore rules.

It really doesn't matter whether you or I think the rules are arbitrary or rational the fact of the matter is, imo, that if everyone had abided by the rules, applicable at any given time during this pandemic, then we would be in a far better situation than we are now.


----------



## Rusty Nails (29 Oct 2020)

In the absence of a working vaccine I believe there is only one way to stop this virus, which is a very long total lockdown, at least as if not more severe than the first one. This is not, for very good reasons, ever going to happen.

As a country we had the chance to get this more under control back in February/March, but our government, and its clown of a leader, delayed and dithered, never got Test and Trace going until the numbers were far too large. The Trace element is still just not up to scratch, and many people now only pay lip service to it.

Even a country like Germany which appeared to do reasonably well at the start is now seeing a big rise in positive cases, so what chance do we stand with this shower in control?

The best we can do is carry on with the restrictions pick & mix approach to limit its growth until an effective vaccine is developed and hope that the number of elderly killed by the virus is acceptable to the rest of the country as a price to pay.

This cheerful lockdown weather is really raising my spirits, as you can see.


----------



## tom73 (29 Oct 2020)

To be an NHS clinical contact tracer you must be min band 6 have a health or science degree or “demonstrable equivalent experience or qualifications”; experience in “a field related to public health or health and social care services as a practitioner” and “registration with the relevant professional body”. Among your tasks are “conducting a public health risk assessment”, “providing public health advice” and “using your clinical knowledge to help escalate complex cases”.
Yet Serco has now "upskilled" all call handlers from level 3 call handlers to level 2 clinical contact caseworkers.
So totally unqualified staff and unregistered staff are now acting as clinically trained ones. 
How is this allowed to happen ? It's illegal to practice as a HCP without a registration ? 
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...nd-coronavirus-covid-test-and-trace-teenagers


----------



## mjr (29 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> This the same race where five positive cases/tests were returned earlier this month.


No. Only two staff found positive at the set up of the bubble. Maybe you speak of the Grio which by all accounts had a weaker bubble.


----------



## DCLane (29 Oct 2020)

West Yorkshire into Tier 3 from Monday ... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54741041


----------



## classic33 (29 Oct 2020)

DCLane said:


> West Yorkshire into Tier 3 from Monday ... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54741041


I'm bulk buying toilet paper tomorrow. If there's any left.

Being serious I can't see many taking a blind bit of notice over the new restrictions.


----------



## tom73 (29 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> I'm bulk buying toilet paper tomorrow. If there's any left.
> 
> Being serious I can't see many taking a blind bit of notice over the new restrictions.


No one is round here and not even been a week. Funny how many regular drinkers have now moved in together and no sign of ever having ordered food.


----------



## kingrollo (29 Oct 2020)

If Tier 1 are progressing to tier 2 - which in turn progress to tier 3 .....isn't that evidence enough that tier 1 & 2 measures don't work ??


----------



## DCLane (29 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> Being serious I can't see many taking a blind bit of notice over the new restrictions.



Most near me haven't taken any notice of the ones introduced in August, nor the others introduced in September. I doubt these will make any difference at all.


----------



## tom73 (29 Oct 2020)

Tier 3 is not much better either already talk of 3 1/2 and tier 4 may as well be tier 9 and 3/4 for what good it all is.


----------



## kingrollo (29 Oct 2020)

From a few consultant s at BRI

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54718318

Wonder if they have been reading CC and decided to set the record straight 😁


----------



## classic33 (29 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> From a few consultant s at BRI
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54718318
> 
> Wonder if they have been reading CC and decided to set the record straight 😁


One of the senior, front line, nursing staff does. But she works at St. Luke's.


----------



## classic33 (29 Oct 2020)

DCLane said:


> Most near me haven't taken any notice of the ones introduced in August, nor the others introduced in September. I doubt these will make any difference at all.


There's some near me have taken no notice of any restrictions in place over the last 226 days.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If Tier 1 are progressing to tier 2 - which in turn progress to tier 3 .....isn't that evidence enough that tier 1 & 2 measures don't work ??



This. In spades.


----------



## classic33 (29 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> From a few consultant s at BRI
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54718318
> 
> Wonder if they have been reading CC and decided to set the record straight 😁


This is the same hospital that has plenty of space in the ICU, due to the low number of Covid-19 cases currently being treated.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (29 Oct 2020)

Well; if no one is taking notice of Tier 1, 2 etc etc then what will work?

If we lock down the whole country why would those ignoring the tier system suddenly become saintly and play by the rules?

Doesn't matter if it's Boris's rules or even if Jezza had won the GE and it was his rules - the result would be the same.

Some people are fed up and/or too stupid to play by the rules whatever they are.


----------



## mjr (29 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Well; if no one is taking notice of Tier 1, 2 etc etc then what will work?


Policing? Education? Explanation? Incarceration?


----------



## kingrollo (29 Oct 2020)

classic33 said:


> This is the same hospital that has plenty of space in the ICU, due to the low number of Covid-19 cases currently being treated.



I couldn't possibly comment


----------



## classic33 (30 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I couldn't possibly comment


See
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/page-959#post-6168406


----------



## PK99 (30 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Doesn't matter if it's Boris's rules or even if Jezza had won the GE and it was his rules - the result would be the same.
> 
> Some people are fed up and/or too stupid to play by the rules whatever they are.



On your first point, I find it profoundly disappointing that so many peoples attitude was politically conditioned from the get go.

On your second, the fact that too many have ignored the rules, or sought ways to circumvent them, from very early on, suggests to me that your "too stupid" option is the correct one.


----------



## Unkraut (30 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Some people are fed up and/or too stupid to play by the rules whatever they are.


_Everyone_ is fed up, that's no excuse for no obeying the rules. 

I think a major mistake was made in the UK at the beginning with the 500,000 possible deaths or whatever it was that was modelled. This inflated scare tactic - or at least that is how it will be perceived by those who distrust 'experts' - just doesn't ring true, another version of project fear. When it turned out to be inaccurate, notwithstanding as demonstrated by the same expert community, then all other warnings can be treated with a pinch of salt as well.

It doesn't help there have been too many high profile cases of the 'elite', those who set the rules, exempting themselves from obeying them. That's been an unmitigated disaster.


----------



## PK99 (30 Oct 2020)

Unkraut said:


> _Everyone_ is fed up, that's no excuse for no obeying the rules.
> 
> I think a major mistake was made in the UK at the beginning with the *500,000 possible deaths* or whatever it was that was modeled.



Ferguson, he of the 500,000 prediction has a consistent track record of over predicting:

* 2001 Now discredited Contiguous culling in Foot & Mouth epidemic based on his modeling
* 2002 Mad Cow Disease up to 50,000 deaths predicted vs actual 177
* 2005 Bird flu prediction 200 million worldwide vs actual of 282
* 2009 Swine flu prediction 65,000uk deaths vs 457 actual
* 2020 500,000 Covid-19 deaths predicted


----------



## classic33 (30 Oct 2020)

Doesn't he realise that it's supposed to cover both mouth and nose?


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (30 Oct 2020)

Sturgeon has got some significant things wrong but the effect of strong, decisive and timely action are starting to show themselves in even South Lanarkshire, the worst hit of Scotland’s local authorities. The English Government should take note !


----------



## IaninSheffield (30 Oct 2020)

PK99 said:


> Ferguson, he of the 500,000 prediction has a consistent track record of over predicting:
> 
> * 2001 Now discredited Contiguous culling in Foot & Mouth epidemic based on his modeling
> * 2002 Mad Cow Disease up to 50,000 deaths predicted vs actual 177
> ...


Are they 'over' predictions though? Or predictions made on the assumption that no control measures would be put in place?
BBC


> Back in March a report by Prof Neil Ferguson, who worked as a government adviser in the early stages of the pandemic, predicted that 500,000 could die if the government did not take action.
> 
> The modelling predicted very high numbers of deaths for both the UK and the US, but only "in the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour".
> 
> Shortly after the UK went into lockdown Prof Ferguson said he was "reasonably confident" the UK death toll would not exceed 20,000.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (30 Oct 2020)

Unkraut said:


> When it turned out to be inaccurate



It was accurate


----------



## kingrollo (30 Oct 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> Are they 'over' predictions though? Or predictions made on the assumption that no control measures would be put in place?
> BBC



Well he got that bit right then !!!


----------



## kingrollo (30 Oct 2020)

Eat out to help out - nice one
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...t-to-help-out-had-on-infection-rates-12118285


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (30 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Eat out to help out - nice one
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...t-to-help-out-had-on-infection-rates-12118285


It's just so obvious. I saw it in Newcastle when it started - you couldn't get into a restaurant for love nor money Mon-Wed because they were rammed.

Even without the scheme, I was in Aviemore the other day and thought I'd pop into my favourite cafe for the lentil soup. One look in the steamed up windows showing most tables taken and diners rubbing elbows made me turn around and get a bag of chips from the chippy to eat in the car. Why do folk think the virus will ignore them if they're sitting down eating?


----------



## johnblack (30 Oct 2020)

PK99 said:


> Ferguson, he of the 500,000 prediction has a consistent track record of over predicting:
> 
> * 2001 Now discredited Contiguous culling in Foot & Mouth epidemic based on his modeling
> * 2002 Mad Cow Disease up to 50,000 deaths predicted vs actual 177
> ...


So much this, there is absolutely no comeback on his crystal ball predictions. 

he just points out that action was taken to avert the crisis, so we will never know. Absolute charlatan.


----------



## the snail (30 Oct 2020)

johnblack said:


> So much this, there is absolutely no comeback on his crystal ball predictions.
> 
> he just points out that action was taken to avert the crisis, so we will never know. Absolute charlatan.


He predicted upto 500,000 with no action, 20,000 with strict isolation. We've had 50,000 deaths, currently heading into a 2nd wave which could be worse than the first. So we're well within the predictions from his models. How accurate would you expect predictions to be?


----------



## tom73 (30 Oct 2020)

About sums up the current situation 
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...second-wave-of-covid-19-getting-freedom-wrong


----------



## tom73 (30 Oct 2020)

https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/pol...e-who-died-in-first-world-war-says-icn-chief/
Based on figures from only 44 countries the number of Nurses to have died at date is now equal to the total deaths in WW1 
About 10% of cases globally are believed to be among healthcare workers  

The ones we once clapped for are now once again thrown to the dogs both politically and socially. All because we want our "normal" back and go to the pub with freedom also come's collective social responsibility. The longer this middle ground fudge continues the deeper we end up in mire. It's simple mask up, wash up , distance , reduce your bubble and stay home when you can. it's going to be a long winter bunker down do what you can to stay safe.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (30 Oct 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1322148489627897857


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> About sums up the current situation
> https://www.theguardian.com/comment...second-wave-of-covid-19-getting-freedom-wrong



As an aside this did amuse me from the article:

_But in neither country has the policy response to the pandemic become so mired in such intensely political argument. _

From one of the major Left-wing crap stirring sources in the UK.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (30 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> As an aside this did amuse me from the article:
> 
> _But in neither country has the policy response to the pandemic become so mired in such intensely political argument. _
> 
> From one of the major Left-wing crap stirring sources in the UK.


And it also uses ‘UK’ and ‘England’ as if they mean the same thing.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (30 Oct 2020)

Glimmer of hope?

From the Beeb and building on a story re the NW restrictions yesterday that had a similar theme:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54748633


----------



## tom73 (30 Oct 2020)

Maybe not latest from SAGE 
Spread in England is faster than worse case perception 4 times quicker. 
People needing hospital care already higher than the winter plan and deaths will "almost certainly" exceed the plan in the next two weeks.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...SAGE62_201014_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf


----------



## mjr (30 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> From one of the major Left-wing crap stirring sources in the UK.


It's centre or centre-left at most. There is only really the Morning Star on the left wing in the UK.


----------



## mjr (30 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Eat out to help out - nice one
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...t-to-help-out-had-on-infection-rates-12118285


"Dr Thiemo Fetzer said the scheme "contributed to community transmission" and "the acceleration of the second wave".

He told Sky News: "The UK saw a massive explosion of cases in a way that was not seen in other countries"

There you go: world-beating(!)


----------



## kingrollo (30 Oct 2020)

Loads of places reporting UK will impose a full national lockdown next week.


----------



## MarkF (30 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> From a few consultant s at BRI
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54718318
> 
> Wonder if they have been reading CC and decided to set the record straight 😁



Yep, he said it.

_"I sympathise with the anti-lockdown advocates. The economic and social damage from the pandemic is going to be catastrophic, and probably outweigh the clinical impact of the virus." 

*Mod Note:*_
This below is the contest in which the above was written: please refrain from selective quoting when selective quoting results in distorting the meaning of an article/post. Thank you!

_I sympathise with the anti-lockdown advocates. The economic and social damage from the pandemic is going to be catastrophic, and probably outweigh the clinical impact of the virus. However, when you see patients fighting for their lives, drowning in air, it reinforces the primacy of our humanity and compassion. Above all we must care for our patients, protect the NHS from being overwhelmed and speak up to prevent transmission. _


----------



## kingrollo (30 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Yep, he said it.
> 
> _"I sympathise with the anti-lockdown advocates. The economic and social damage from the pandemic is going to be catastrophic, and probably outweigh the clinical impact of the virus." _



I linked the whole article - you've quoted half a quote.
*Mod Note:*
Added the full extract to the post above.


----------



## classic33 (30 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> Yep, he said it.
> 
> _"I sympathise with the anti-lockdown advocates. The economic and social damage from the pandemic is going to be catastrophic, and probably outweigh the clinical impact of the virus." _


But a completely different view/opinion on the bed situation at the BRI. Running low on staff for the beds available as well.


----------



## DaveReading (30 Oct 2020)

johnblack said:


> So much this, there is absolutely no comeback on his crystal ball predictions.
> 
> he just points out that action was taken to avert the crisis, so we will never know. Absolute charlatan.



Isn't that the whole point of a "worst case" prediction - to encourage steps to ensure it doesn't happen, rather than becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy ?


----------



## MarkF (30 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I linked the whole article - you've quoted half a quote.



But isn't that the most important bit?


----------



## MarkF (30 Oct 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Isn't that the whole point of a "worst case" prediction - to encourage steps to ensure it doesn't happen, rather than becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy ?



Maybe we need a better and more accurate purveyor of "worst case" scenarios though? His track record IS terrible and now his failures are causing untold societal damage.

_Bird flu pandemic *could* kill 150 million._

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke


----------



## stowie (30 Oct 2020)

Daily Mail Link here (apparently an exclusive...)

Headline :



> National lockdown next week: Boris Johnson bows to scientific advisers and is set tow nationwide coronavirus restrictions after warnings it was the only way to save Christmas



So many things...

Firstly, who the fark is the sub-editor at the DM these days? This guy?






Secondly, saving Christmas? What are we in, a slightly shite disney Crimbo movie?

Lastly, we have just had half term. If lockdown involves closing schools, one week could have been when the schools were _actually _on holiday. And the timing of the "leak" is such that it is too short notice for schools, workplaces, shops, restaurants, pubs etc. to actually organise for another lockdown and long enough for people to rush around buying tonnes of bog-roll and/or go out this weekend on a "final splurge".

If this is what the government is thinking, then the "leak" isn't a leak but a way of testing the water before doing something potentially difficult. Cummings playing 3-dimensional chess again. Totally sick of this shoot. Do things properly and actually, like, address the nation without drip feeding possible policy to their favourite press hacks. And if it is an unauthorised leak find the moron who did it and sack them.


----------



## kingrollo (30 Oct 2020)

MarkF said:


> But isn't that the most important bit?



No - because earlier you had said (or implied) that BRI didn't have any concerns about increasing covid numbers and there impact on beds.

"There's no 2nd Wave and there never will be" - or something to that effect.


----------



## MarkF (31 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> No - because earlier you had said (or implied) that BRI didn't have any concerns about increasing covid numbers and there impact on beds.
> 
> "There's no 2nd Wave and there never will be" - or something to that effect.



Both those points are entirely unrelated to the quote I made.


----------



## Unkraut (31 Oct 2020)

I listened to the minister-president of Baden-Württemberg where I live giving a live statement to the state parliament on the measures to be effective from Monday for one month. 

There are _still_ some saying the virus isn't dangerous (AfD in particular, the equivalent of the UKIP/Daily Mail/Express constituency).

He emphasised that the aim is to reduce contact between people by 75% as the minimum level necessary to break the current second wave. The whole of the population has therefore got to get behind this or it will not work, and more drastic measures might be necessary i.e. a full lockdown of the economy with all that could entail. The proposed measures are intended to prevent a lockdown of that nature.

The number intensive care units and suitable equipment is good, but there is a lack of staff to run them. If the current rate of increase is not stopped and the increase in hospital admissions continues to rise, the system will hit the buffers by St Nicholas (6th December).

The closure of the entertainment branch, theatres and restaurants etc. is because it is now no longer possible to be sure exactly where the chief drivers of the spread are located. The health authorities are overloaded and cannot follow up all the contact data received to get people to isolate who have been near someone tested positive. Where people got infected is only known in 25% of cases.

The German space agency have tested masks, and found they can reduce the dosage of virus you might get from breathing in aerosols down to 10%.

My view is the shortage of ICU staff is a result of neglectful pre-pandemic policies, a 10% pay rise for them just agreed might help the retention situation in the future, but extra staff are needed now. The health authorities might have done a better job at tracking if they had got on with digitalisation to speed things up during the summer. I wonder if some complacency crept in here.

There are calls for more parliamentary scrutiny of measures that are being decided by the executive, both state and federal level, as legal measures are agreed first and parliament informed afterwards. I think such calls are good, but not at the expense of the rapid decision-making which headed off the worst in March and April.


----------



## kingrollo (31 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> No - because earlier you had said (or implied) that BRI didn't have any concerns about increasing covid numbers and there impact on beds.
> 
> "There's no 2nd Wave and there never will be" - or something to that effect.



So you're still saying there's no 2nd wave ? - hilarious !


----------



## raleighnut (31 Oct 2020)

The pub across the road was rammed last night, are these people feckin eejits


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

What ever comes will be one too late, two not effective enough, three too quickly unlocked, four with ineffective interventions to keep cases down. But above all add yet more numbers of deaths and long term social damage which is covid. You can rebuild an economy but you can't bring people back or give them the health back they once had. The current government fudge is not working it's time to get real other western democracies have shown it can be done. They are not having to lock down but are now fully reopen and enjoying life in the new post covid "normal"


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

Member of SAGE setting out what yesterdays data means.

View: https://twitter.com/jeremyfarrar/status/1322247424941936641?s=21


----------



## vickster (31 Oct 2020)

raleighnut said:


> The pub across the road was rammed last night, are these people feckin eejits


Yes


----------



## Adam4868 (31 Oct 2020)

This is how you get the news of lockdowns now ? Why on a weekend when people are going to think it's our last chance to go out.

View: https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1322300519856115724?s=19


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> Secondly, saving Christmas? What are we in, a slightly shite disney Crimbo movie?



They have to try something new they've already tried Save lives, then we had save pret, so now it's save Christmas.
Not forgetting it's much more cuddly and takes your eye off the ever growing number of deaths.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (31 Oct 2020)

None of the other religions have had their festivals “saved”, I think it would be wrong to make an exception for Christians.


----------



## MrGrumpy (31 Oct 2020)

National or England only ? Some of members of the “United Kingdom” have already lockdown properly


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> This is how you get the news of lockdowns now ? Why on a weekend when people are going to think it's our last chance to go out.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1322300519856115724?s=19




Same as first time. 

1. Minimise or downplay the reality. 
2. Hope for the best. 
3. Delay
4. Acknowledge problem, implement half measures. 
5. Delay
6. Panic. Leak possible harsh measures to press. Assess response. 
7. Delay. 
8. Implement belated effective measures. 
9. Demand all criticism be silenced as we need "Blitz Spirit"


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Same as first time.
> 
> 1. Minimise or downplay the reality.
> 2. Hope for the best.
> ...



Been shown before but it sum's up your post and sadly looking true yet again.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM0yzEf-v-g


----------



## oldworld (31 Oct 2020)

Boris behind the curve again. Shut down should have happened when Starmer suggested it.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

oldworld said:


> Boris behind the curve again. Shut down should have happened when Starmer suggested it.



A suggestion that three or four weeks earlier when SAGE proposed it would have been best (Starmer was following the publication of the SAGE minutes, which didn't come out until weeks later).


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

oldworld said:


> Boris behind the curve again. Shut down should have happened when Starmer suggested it.


Not quite he needed to do it when when SAGE ie the science told him to.


----------



## oldworld (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> A suggestion that three or four weeks earlier when SAGE proposed it would have been best (Starmer was following the publication of the SAGE minutes, which didn't come out until weeks later).


Boris must have missed the report!!!


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

oldworld said:


> Boris must have missed the report!!!


Can't have he tells us he's following the science. Think it's the law of motion though as it went flying into the bin along with the rest of bit from SAGE he doesn't what to hear.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

oldworld said:


> Boris must have missed the report!!!



No, just too cowardly to implement.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (31 Oct 2020)

Surely we should give the new Tier system time to take effect before full lockdown? It would appear that the R number has reduced since last week and, if I remember correctly that was down on the week before.

As far as I can work out infection rates are slowing down in Liverpool and they have only been in T3 for what 3 weeks or less? I had a couple of more specific links for this but can't find them now. Maybe someone else has access to some regional data?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54748633

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uks-r-number-edges-down-slightly-to-1-1-1-3-12118552

Imo the Fourth Estate and Social Media are whipping up a frenzied storm without giving the new measures a chance to settle in.

Personally, I'm tired of various experts being trotted out expounding their views, which are often contrary to each other as well as reading politically biased views/reactions from both sides of the broadly red/blue spectrum. Tedious and not particularly helpful.

Again, imo, we have some rules which seem clear to me and if the populace actually abided by them without either blatantly ignoring them or subtly twisting them to suit their own ends, then they would work effectively.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Surely we should give the new Tier system time to take effect before full lockdown? It would appear that the R number has reduced since last week and, if I remember correctly that was down on the week before.
> 
> As far as I can work out infection rates are slowing down in Liverpool and they have only been in T3 for what 3 weeks or less? I had a couple of more specific links for this but can't find them now. Maybe someone else has access to some regional data?
> 
> ...



The tier system isn't working, and was never expected to work. Whitty said as much when it was announced. 

R coming down is not sufficient - it needs to be robustly below one.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The tier system isn't working, and was never expected to work. Whitty said as much when it was announced.
> 
> R coming down is not sufficient - it needs to be robustly below one.



I do fully understand point 2. 

But where is the data that shows eg Tier 3 is _not_ working (as per your first sentence) in the regions it has been imposed?

Here's some that shows some improvement in what is still a very early doors situation post T3 restrictions being imposed:

https://liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases

As the new measures have only just been implemented and AFAIK the drag time on such measures will be at least 4 weeks (or 6 according to some) before caseload (increasing or decreasing) has an impact on actual deaths.

So surely we need to allow at least that amount of time to elapse before we consign the Tier approach to the rubbish bin of history?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I do fully understand point 2.
> 
> But where is the data that shows eg Tier 3 is _not_ working in the regions it has been imposed?
> 
> ...



We don't have time. The virus is spreading close to exponential, and deaths are baked in about a month ahead. You won't get accurate estimates of R in small areas. 

But some of what we do have:

Vallance last weekend:

"Tier 3 baseline conditions on their own, almost certainly aren't enough to get the R below one"

ONS regional data - note continuing rise in NW despite Tier 3 in much of it






A best case scenario for tier three is that it holds infections or puts a slow decline on them. That means the whole country ending up at tier three for the whole winter.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> We don't have time. The virus is spreading close to exponential, and deaths are baked in about a month ahead. You won't get accurate estimates of R in small areas.
> 
> But some of what we do have:
> 
> ...



But that's data from 12 Sep, the Tier system was only introduced 2-3 weeks ago. Early evidence appears to show that the situation is improving slightly. I think we should give the system a chance to show it's potential in helping us control the situation.

Where is the data that _absolutely_ shows that the tier system is _not_ working?


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

The media love to play off expert v expert. I know at least one interview that they set up and edited to so just that. 
Scientists always have differing view it's all part of science. We do have data that's free from any differing views , political games, media mediation. It's all clear from the ONS data which shows this thing is out of control. The tier's don't work Whitty made it clear from the start 
Even if case numbers level off your still left with a long and steady admission and death rate. We simple can't afford that how ever you measure it. Once bed's are full as in some placers already happened they stay full for some time. Once numbers start feeding into respiratory care beds we will have no extra beds to put even step down cases into. We already know that effective oxygen therapy play's a big role in keeping cases out of IUC. You can't do that on many day to day ward's, never mind not having the trained staff to do it. 
Testing is still working and is likely to go bust at some point if this continues. SAGE have already said it's in danger of being infective. 
Numbers have to come down and fast we are not into winter yet and have long to go. We simply don't have the time to mess about anymore.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> But that's data from 12 Sep



No, it's _since_ Sept 12th.

And the point is that "improving slightly" doesn't actually help. At very best it means the whole country will end up in tier three for the whole winter, with infection rates at at current Liverpool and Manchester levels, and death rates rather higher (still significant rises in older population there)

This is the best visualisation of current Liverpool status I can find. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.li...-news/graph-shows-covid-19-cases-19193225.amp

Tier 3 started Oct 14th I believe.


----------



## midlife (31 Oct 2020)

Woke up today with Carlisle now in tier 2. Had a quick look and doesn't seem vastly different to tier 1.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Woke up today with Carlisle now in tier 2. Had a quick look and doesn't seem vastly different to tier 1.


That's the problem


----------



## SpokeyDokey (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> *No, it's since Sept 12th.*
> 
> And the point is that "improving slightly" doesn't actually help. At very best it means the whole country will end up in tier three for the whole winter, with infection rates at at current Liverpool and Manchester levels, and death rates rather higher (still significant rises in older population there)
> 
> ...



Thanks for that - the graphic data looks like good news to me. Drops in Liverpool and Knowsley from the second week of October (ie 2-3 weeks ago) and signs of stabilisation in the other areas. Imo it would be a shame to junk the Tier system at such short notice after its inception. I will keep an open mind on how they pan out, in terms of effectiveness, if they are indeed given the chance to run any further.

*Technically correct but rather pedantic imo. I will try harder in future!*


----------



## MarkF (31 Oct 2020)

Best advice I got this week? Use Bing not Google, censorship is far worse than I even thought.

Dr Mike Yeadon makes the news at last.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...DON-Three-facts-No-10s-experts-got-wrong.html


----------



## Low Gear Guy (31 Oct 2020)

The current plan seems to be a four week lockdown to 'save Christmas '. If Christmas involves the whole family including students and older people sitting inside for the whole day, is this likely to cause a third peak of cases in mid January?


----------



## marinyork (31 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Woke up today with Carlisle now in tier 2. Had a quick look and doesn't seem vastly different to tier 1.



No mixing indoors (theoretically). That's probably the biggest and most important difference between all of the three tiers.

Pretty much the entire country should already have been in tier 2 going on the infection rates for the last 2-3 weeks.


----------



## marinyork (31 Oct 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> The current plan seems to be a four week lockdown to 'save Christmas '. If Christmas involves the whole family including students and older people sitting inside for the whole day, is this likely to cause a third peak of cases in mid January?



That's just what they tell tory voters to keep them happy. Without vaccines making a massive dent the second wave will likely go into spring/summer.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

Great interview from prof Calum Semple member of SAGE. Simple and to the point even when the interviewer tried to get sound bits he held out. He explains why the levelling off in Liverpool is not good enough. Even if cases level off it's "just keep's you in bad place" and being the whole county to same level. 
Catch it on the BBC News 24 live feed stats around 11.07


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> No mixing indoors (theoretically). That's probably the biggest and most important difference between all of the three tiers.
> 
> Pretty much the entire country should already have been in tier 2 going on the infection rates for the last 2-3 weeks.


Unless it's a "meeting" or "same" household some round here have magically become one.


----------



## gbb (31 Oct 2020)

I really don't understand how so few people really havn't nailed the real cause for infection, people and their stubborn stupid behaviour.
Day after day after day I see what look like healthy people in shops with no masks.
People going in shops that don't sanitise their hands despite it being available.
People going in shops and not sanitising the trolley, basket handles.
Week after week I see the majority of people at my work failing to follow procedures setup to contain covid. Dogged , determined failure to follow the one way system. Unashamed failure to wear masks properly. Disgusting failure to wash hands after using the toilets, compounded by then failing to sanitise on leaving. Failure to arrive en masse on the coach wearing masks.
The list goes on and on and on, day after day I see this stuff.

You can Implement 1000 plans, some good, some bad no doubt, governments, health experts , armchair experts seem oblivious it's all pointless if people wont comply.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

Wonder if Boris will dust off these again. He forget them last time so may as well use them and have another go at hitting the target.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

gbb said:


> it's all pointless if people wont comply.



What do you think is the root cause of this non- compliance?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Wonder if Boris will dust off these again. He forget them last time so may as well use them and have another go at hitting the target.
> View attachment 555536
> View attachment 555537



Item 5 is long forgotten...


----------



## gbb (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What do you think is the root cause of this non- compliance?


Stubbornness, denial, stupidity.

Even the Police here have been complicit in its spread. We have a big problem with car cruises and a bigger problem with them drifting. During a conversation with an officer who phoned up following a complaint made he said...
'Its difficult when there are 100 to 150 people there, we have to manage the situation and prevent the drifting'

Instantly the reply was...
'So mass gatherings are acceptable despite covid then ?'

The officer went very quiet.


----------



## marinyork (31 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Unless it's a "meeting" or "same" household some round here have magically become one.



Last weekend in tier 3, venues were not enforcing outdoor mixing. It was outdoors though.

Having come back from the week's social contact with another person on a walk in the dark last night I went past a huge number of restaurants at tea time. The park we had to ourselves. The restaurants were absolutely rammed except two. It seems very unlikely there wasn't some household mixing going on.


----------



## pawl (31 Oct 2020)

oldworld said:


> Boris must have missed the report!!!




More like ignored


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Last weekend in tier 3, venues were not enforcing outdoor mixing. It was outdoors though.
> 
> Having come back from the week's social contact with another person on a walk in the dark last night I went past a huge number of restaurants at tea time. The park we had to ourselves. The restaurants were absolutely rammed except two. It seems very unlikely there wasn't some household mixing going on.


That's about the same picture here can't see it having much effect on any Halloween mixing tonight either.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Item 5 is long forgotten...


Think the marker pen will need to come out a quick change to 3rd wave will fix it sure no-one will notice.


----------



## kingrollo (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What do you think is the root cause of this non- compliance?



I think most people are complying. Stats from the march lockdown compliance was estimated in the high 90 per cents.

If you had 100% complaince - the virus would still spread. Masks are not 100% effective - neither is hand washing .

You have too Imo look at why the lockdown in march worked - and why the softer regional regional lockdowns haven't. A dip in compliance ....sure....but IMO the measures aren't tight enough.

No easy answers to any of this.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

A lot of talk about beds the fine detail can be complex put simply this is what we are facing.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> No easy answers to any of this.



I could offer a couple:

1. Have a clear strategy. 
2. Have consistent messaging.


----------



## marinyork (31 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think most people are complying. Stats from the march lockdown compliance was estimated in the high 90 per cents.



It probably was in March. The self isolation numbers are around 10% now and this reflect it's 10 days/14 days as opposed to 7 days in the past and people literally aren't allowed out of the grounds of their house whereas in march/april they were to exercise and shop (being very careful and not coming into contact with others).

The focus group stuff suggests beyond masks a lot scepticism on most of the other measures.

I don't think people are sticking to the non-indoor social mixing.


----------



## Adam4868 (31 Oct 2020)

Press conference today at 4pm Presuming to tell us were going into a fuller lockdown ?


----------



## marinyork (31 Oct 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Press conference today at 4pm Presuming to tell us were going into a fuller lockdown ?



Good spot. 

Telling southern England to get down the pub fast whilst they are (mostly) still in tier 1.


----------



## Adam4868 (31 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Good spot.
> 
> Telling southern England to get down the pub fast whilst they are (mostly) still in tier 1.


There's me hoping it was his resignation speech...


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Press conference today at 4pm Presuming to tell us were going into a fuller lockdown ?


No it will be to roll out whitty and Valance to tell us how much of the brown stuff we are in. Get them yet again pictured as the bad boys then Borris and co will do something that totally over shoots the target. Public demand freedom, Pret demand more work time sandwich sales. 
Boris buy into it and every one blames the pleaders of doom and it's all fixed by Christmas.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Good spot.
> 
> Telling southern England to get down the pub fast whilst they are (mostly) still in tier 1.


Maybe the curve ball that's been talked about tier 3 becomes 4 just lock down the north. Bit like Eyam but in HD with full surround sound.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Press conference today at 4pm Presuming to tell us were going into a fuller lockdown ?



Predictions:

1. We're in the shoot. But we won't say why. 
2. Don't want to do anything, against all instincts yadayadayada.
3. Must save Christmas. Faux Churchillian or Latin phrase to accompany. 
4. Locking down nationally. But called something else - tier 4 super local or somesuch bollix. Clear plan on exiting conspicuous by its absence. 
5. Unrealistic promises (over by X, moonshot, whatever)
6. Failure of and plan to sort test n trace not mentioned. 
7. Johnson gets something factually wrong in questions. No. 10 twitter later insists he was right whilst correcting.


----------



## oldworld (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Predictions:
> 
> 1. We're in the shoot. But we won't say why.
> 2. Don't want to do anything, against all instincts yadayadayada.
> ...


Sounds like you know Boris. Is he a personal friend?


----------



## kingrollo (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Predictions:
> 
> 1. We're in the shoot. But we won't say why.
> 2. Don't want to do anything, against all instincts yadayadayada.
> ...


Vaccine very close is my bet.


----------



## kingrollo (31 Oct 2020)

Eat out to Help out v 2 ???


----------



## Ming the Merciless (31 Oct 2020)

There’s another baby on the way


----------



## marinyork (31 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Eat out to Help out v 2 ???



Everything closed down except schools. Back to school to help out.

School leaving age raised to 66. All businesses and any other activities in society such as churches, universities are converted into schools with all work becoming part of the national curriculum. Teachers and teaching assistants become pupils again, with the school system run by retired teachers over the age of 66. There is an exemption for the Houses of Parliament.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Everything closed down except schools. Back to school to help out.
> 
> School leaving age raised to 66. All businesses and any other activities in society such as churches, universities are converted into schools with all work becoming part of the national curriculum. Teachers and teaching assistants become pupils again, with the school system run by retired teachers over the age of 66. There is an exemption for the Houses of Parliament.




Hmmm. We've found the mole.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Oct 2020)

> *Covid in Scotland: 'Don't travel to England' warns first minister*


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54760388

England in lockdown, Europe cut off from Scotland.


----------



## kingrollo (31 Oct 2020)

marinyork said:


> Everything closed down except schools. Back to school to help out.
> 
> School leaving age raised to 66. All businesses and any other activities in society such as churches, universities are converted into schools with all work becoming part of the national curriculum. Teachers and teaching assistants become pupils again, with the school system run by retired teachers over the age of 66. There is an exemption for the Houses of Parliament.


You forget the grouse shooters exemption


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Predictions:
> 
> 1. We're in the shoot. But we won't say why.
> 2. Don't want to do anything, against all instincts yadayadayada.
> ...



Missed one when Whitty or Vallance give a scientific reply to a question. Borris will be nodding and saying yes or that's right. Trying to make out he understands it. Not forgetting trotting out the stay alert message to what , or who or how is anyones guess. 
Maybe he will do a Jobs and a "one other thing" moment and give everyone over 100 a free Christmas hamper.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

Kit Yates, modeller on independent Sage nails it:


View: https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1322545002711601158


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

From Kit's feed we also discover the oh so surprising news that Aaron Banks is an innumerate unfeeling çunt of the highest order:


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322232057494470659


----------



## midlife (31 Oct 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Press conference today at 4pm Presuming to tell us were going into a fuller lockdown ?



Press conference now pushed back to 5.00pm.


----------



## Adam4868 (31 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Press conference now pushed back to 5.00pm.


Probally only just realised the clocks went forward a hour ?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Press conference now pushed back to 5.00pm.


Waiting for the Falkirk game to end.


----------



## BoldonLad (31 Oct 2020)

Unkraut said:


> _Everyone_ is fed up, that's no excuse for no obeying the rules.
> ....................
> 
> It doesn't help there have been* too many high profile cases of the 'elite', those who set the rules, exempting themselves from obeying them*. That's been an unmitigated disaster.



Indeed, including, if memory serves me correctly, the originator some of the scare tactics, who had to slip out (or, should that be in?), to see his friend.


----------



## pawl (31 Oct 2020)

Costco has reported people stockpiling toilet rolls milk and essentials like booze and crisps.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> scare tactics



How is predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths unless we take action a "scare tactic"?

On the contrary, it seems close to a "proven fact" given that we're already up to 60,000 despite unprecedented measures to suppress, and just at the start of ac second wave.


----------



## Julia9054 (31 Oct 2020)

pawl said:


> Costco has reported people stockpiling toilet rolls milk and essentials like booze and crisps.


Al went to Morrisons this morning - the place was rammed. Just walked past Waitrose to see the cars queuing out of the car park and down the road


----------



## Mo1959 (31 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Waiting for the Falkirk game to end.


Or the rugby.


----------



## BoldonLad (31 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> What ever comes will be one too late, two not effective enough, three too quickly unlocked, four with ineffective interventions to keep cases down. But above all add yet more numbers of deaths and long term social damage which is covid. You can rebuild an economy but you can't bring people back or give them the health back they once had. The current government fudge is not working it's time to* get real other western democracies have shown it can be done.* They are not having to lock down but are now fully reopen and enjoying life in the new post covid "normal"



Could you name them please? AFAIK, there are none.


----------



## BoldonLad (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> How is predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths unless we take action a "scare tactic"?
> 
> On the contrary, it seems close to a "proven fact" given that we're already up to 60,000 despite unprecedented measures to suppress, and just at the start of ac second wave.



No. We have approximately 60,000 deaths where the deceased tested positive for Covid within 28 days of death, that is not the same thing as dying OF Covid. We are all going to die sooner or later.

As for the "unprecedented measures"... the rules have not been adhered to, for whatever reason, if the rules are not going to be enforced, what is the point in having them? Without something approaching martial law, it is very difficult to see how the rules could be enforced IMHO.


----------



## slowmotion (31 Oct 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Could you name them please? AFAIK, there are none.


Here's what the Beeb says......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53640249


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ckdown-crystal-ball-coronavirus-b1477034.html
This from a health minister of all people good job she's no longer a reg HCP.
You did have crystal ball it's called SAGE and a back up one called Independent SAGE.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> We have approximately 60,000 deaths where the deceased tested positive for Covid within 28 days of death, that is not the same thing as dying OF Covid. We are all going to die sooner or later



No serious expert disputes the numbers. They're based on excess deaths, and are very obvious from mortality data. 

The alternative method, which you quote, gives about 45,000 deaths. Some people will take longer than 28 days to die, some will never be diagnosed, and very few would have died anyway of something else within 28 days of a positive test. 

By all means challenge if we have the right approach, but the order of magnitude of death figures are not seriously in dispute.


----------



## BoldonLad (31 Oct 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Here's what the Beeb says......
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53640249



Yes, that is pretty much as I thought, ie, one of the few "Western Democracies" not to be having to implement even stronger "lock downs", is Sweden, which did not actually "lock down" in the first place. hmmm.....


----------



## oldfatfool (31 Oct 2020)

I'll just dig out my oxygen tent and my inflatable chimp. What the fark is the use of stopping people from shopping for a new telly if everyone is still going to work / school to sit indoors for 8 hours with strangers. Even if the r rate comes down it will only increase again, it's all pointless the disease is here to stay either live with it or we might as well all slit our wrists because we will all be farked mentally and socially if the government is going to tell us all we can do is work and sleep (and then only in your primary residence regardless that you might own anywhere else) total lockdown is sheer stupidity, a bit like Brexit, just another way of farking the country and making the rich richer and the poor poorer.


----------



## BoldonLad (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> No serious expert disputes the numbers. They're based on excess deaths, and are very obvious from mortality data.
> 
> The alternative method, which you quote, gives about 45,000 deaths. Some people will take longer than 28 days to die, some will never be diagnosed, and very few would have died anyway of something else within 28 days of a positive test.
> 
> By all means challenge if we have the right approach, but the *order of magnitude of death figures are not seriously in dispute*.



I am not disputing the death figures, I am querying if the the measures to "save the NHS", "beat Covid" etc are producing a worse situation that would have occurred without such measures, or, with different ACHIEVABLE measures. A case of "the cure is worse than the disease" in layman's terms (which I am by the way, ie a layman).

I am no Behavioural Scientist, but, anecdotal I know, in my life experience people (in general) will only behave is a way demanded/requested by authority if they can actually see the usefulness of such behaviour, in their own daily lives (including, of course, their own social circle).


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> I am not disputing the death figures



Could have fooled me



BoldonLad said:


> . We have approximately 60,000 deaths where the deceased tested positive for Covid within 28 days of death, that is not the same thing as dying OF Covid.


----------



## BoldonLad (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Could have fooled me



. We have approximately 60,000 deaths where the deceased tested positive for Covid within 28 days of death, that is not the same thing as dying OF Covid.

That is disputing the CAUSE, not the quantity.

To the best of my knowledge, actual deaths, from all causes, this year (2020) so far, are not significantly different from that to be expected from five year averages. No, I don't recall the source, probably The BBC.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

Looking like another game of bullsh..t bingo is on the cards. 
s.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> That is disputing the CAUSE, not the quantity.



Right. 

So you're disputing the death figures, but not disputing the death figures. Got it. 

Excess deaths: 60,000.


----------



## oldfatfool (31 Oct 2020)

If I thought lockdown will work I would be all for it. But it wont, it didn't the first time. It's just postponing the inevitable for some people whilst making everyone's life intolerable. Whilst ever they allow people to leave their homes at all, and allow any travel between countries then it doesn't matter how low the r number drops it will always increase the minute the restrictions are lifted. As I said in March the only solution would be to go into a situation where everyone is forced to remain in their own house for a month with no exit, nurses and hospital staff to remain onsite, the army or police to deliver food to households in hazmat suits, it would have to be worldwide. We are going to have to accept covid is here, there will probably be no miracle vaccine or cure, in the same vein as the flu as no REAL vaccine or cure. Yes I know that is comparing it to flu which will upset the covidista but it's odd that flu deaths are way down this year... its nature something will always come along and cull populations, hate to say it but modern medicine does too good a job at keeping people who have reached the end of their natural lives, alive, and then we get upset when nature comes along with a new way of thwarting the effort.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> it's odd that flu deaths are way down this year...



I mean, there's a whole lot of nonsense in that post, which would take pages to refute. 

But this in particular is a real doozy.

Has it occurred to you *why* cases of an infectious respiratory disease are way down during a worldwide attempt to minimise transmission of an infectious respiratory disease?


----------



## Julia9054 (31 Oct 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> it's odd that flu deaths are way down this year.


Why would you find that odd? People (generally) have been working from home, social distancing, wearing masks and washing their hands. These are not measures that magically work against one virus and not another.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Waiting for the Falkirk game to end.


OK, 2-0 win. You can carry on now Mr Johnson.


----------



## Bollo (31 Oct 2020)

Somebody needs to point out that the government is actually implementing an “Australian-style” lockdown.


View: https://twitter.com/jake_pugh/status/1322573493796511745?s=20


🤣


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> OK, 2-0 win. You can carry on now Mr Johnson.


Give him time he and the rest of the cabinet have to rearrange the chairs first.


----------



## oldfatfool (31 Oct 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Why would you find that odd? People (generally) have been working from home, social distancing, wearing masks and washing their hands. These are not measures that magically work against one virus and not another.


That's funny, I didn't think it was working against covid!

The point I was making is that if you take the average number of deaths at this time of year normally logged against flu, and see that they are reduced by x, then the fact that the number killed off by covid as risen by x + y doesn't mean that the number of excess deaths as risen by z. It's all very well reporting 326 deaths a day but if there are normally 300 deaths a day through flu and there are now only 50 then it is excess deaths that need reporting. There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

I would also suggest that the majority of people in hospital with covid, either work in the hospital or have caught and tested positive in hospital.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

Presser put back till 6.30.

I reckon they need the time to dream up a new three word slogan. 

"Procrastinate. Infect. Impoverish." ?


----------



## stowie (31 Oct 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> If I thought lockdown will work I would be all for it. But it wont, it didn't the first time.



Lockdown worked the first time around. We avoided NHS overload by a whisker.




oldfatfool said:


> Whilst ever they allow people to leave their homes at all, and allow any travel between countries then it doesn't matter how low the r number drops it will always increase the minute the restrictions are lifted.



Travel between countries is only important when the numbers of domestic infected are so low that it isn't circulating due to domestic transmission. Otherwise domestic transmission vastly outweighs transmission from outside the country.



oldfatfool said:


> As I said in March the only solution would be to go into a situation where everyone is forced to remain in their own house for a month with no exit, nurses and hospital staff to remain onsite, the army or police to deliver food to households in hazmat suits, it would have to be worldwide. We are going to have to accept covid is here, there will probably be no miracle vaccine or cure, in the same vein as the flu as no REAL vaccine or cure.



Lots of diseases caused by virus have been very well managed by vaccination. 



oldfatfool said:


> Yes I know that is comparing it to flu which will upset the covidista but it's odd that flu deaths are way down this year...



Flu was down this year (so far) because lockdown doesn't just restrict infection of COVID. Other diseases spread by similar transmission would, of course, be damped by the same measures.



oldfatfool said:


> ts nature something will always come along and cull populations, hate to say it but modern medicine does too good a job at keeping people who have reached the end of their natural lives, alive, and then we get upset when nature comes along with a new way of thwarting the effort.



We could just put the old and the frail on a mountainside during a cold spell to let nature take its course. But I hope we have moved on from just letting nature take its course.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> That's funny, I didn't think it was working against covid!



You're wrong. 

R without measures is ~3.5

With current measures ~1.4


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Presser put back till 6.30.
> 
> I reckon they need the time to dream up a new three word slogan.
> 
> "Procrastinate. Infect. Impoverish." ?


Or leave it long enough for the BBC to tell you anyway they've already given some of the game away.


----------



## DCLane (31 Oct 2020)

The first time they did this in March it was ignored locally.
The locals have ignored restrictions introduced in August and Tier 2 last week.
What difference will having another of these make?

imo none.

There's been the odd fine but without any effective enforcement the lack of confidence will continue.

And I'm even more annoyed that government policy announcement seem to be leaking them via the press and then an official announcement 12-36 hours later.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

Right so word is they don't like it being called lockdown or tier 4. The front runner is "tough new national measures" with "exit back to regional tiers". Well that's catchy think they may need a wider podium. Maybe that's way is late Borris is botching one up. He's botched everything else.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

Peston looks to have given the whole game away with a whole thread of what's coming. 

View: https://twitter.com/peston/status/1322562692771696640?s=21


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Oct 2020)

Just hope the delay isn't due to horse-trading in the cabinet meeting leading to measures being watered down.


----------



## Pale Rider (31 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> Peston looks to have given the whole game away with a whole thread of what's coming.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/peston/status/1322562692771696640?s=21




Most of it was on the telly last night and in this morning's newspapers.

Seems to me all the lobby correspondents got roughly the same stuff yesterday evening.


----------



## oldfatfool (31 Oct 2020)

stowie said:


> Lockdown worked the first time around. We avoided NHS overload by a whisker.



Depends which nurses you listen to. Imo there is a massive case to say NHS managers a seeing this as a great way to ask for an increased budget next year. 

And that's before you take into account that unless you have a cough your not welcome by the NHS. As far as I am concerned the nhs should be scrapped.


----------



## Blue Hills (31 Oct 2020)

BBC surely has a ripe sense of humour.
As a second general lockdown appears to be looming they have just interviewed at some length Prof Neil Ferguson from Imperial College whose research and urgings produced a first lockdown which he then broke by popping round to his lover.
Behind him was what looked very much like Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, but the caption said his talking head and torso in the middle of the screen was coming from Oxford.
Coming up next as the beeb fills time, Dominic Cummings in a frock will deputise for/push aside the queen to give us a few words on our public duty?


----------



## Pale Rider (31 Oct 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Prof Neil Ferguson from Imperial College whose research and urgings produced a first lockdown which he then broke by popping round to his lover.



Now forever known as the Bonkin' Boffin - thanks to those good folks at The Sun.


----------



## Blue Hills (31 Oct 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Now forever known as the Bonkin' Boffin - thanks to those good folks at The Sun.


he looked slightly on edge to me - maybe he was wondering if he'd be asked if he had a favoured squeeze in Oxford - and congratulated on his improvised backdrop of central London. *

(* the bbc's doing I suppose, but god knows why - one only wonders what they had pixellated out of his real surroundings - some red velvet orgy deep within an oxford college?)


----------



## Ming the Merciless (31 Oct 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> BBC surely has a ripe sense of humour.
> As a second general lockdown appears to be looming they have just interviewed at some length Prof Neil Ferguson from Imperial College whose research and urgings produced a first lockdown which he then broke by popping round to his lover.
> Behind him was what looked very much like Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, but the caption said his talking head and torso in the middle of the screen was coming from Oxford.
> Coming up next as the beeb fills time, Dominic Cummings in a frock will deputise for/push aside the queen to give us a few words on our public duty?



Zoom background?


----------



## Salty seadog (31 Oct 2020)

PK99 said:


> We and the people we know in the real world have no difficulty understanding the rules as they apply to us.
> 
> In all the online/newspaper quizzes I score 100% - in one yesterday I scored only 7/10 - failing on questions about granny looking after kids (we do no have grandkids), student visiting parents (long past that stage), and large family groups - we do not have an extended family. All the questions about what I can do here and travelling between tiers were correct.
> 
> ...



Legend....


----------



## pawl (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Presser put back till 6.30.
> 
> I reckon they need the time to dream up a new three word slogan.
> 
> "Procrastinate. Infect. Impoverish." ?



Late taking action.so not surprised he can’t manage to start his broadcast time.


----------



## Edwardoka (31 Oct 2020)

I hear that if he emerges and sees his own shadow it means four more weeks of lockdown


----------



## kingrollo (31 Oct 2020)

New lockdown subject to a vote seriously ? 

Shades of life of Brian !!!!


----------



## pawl (31 Oct 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Probally only just realised the clocks went forward a hour ?




Keep up to date now half past six


----------



## Bollo (31 Oct 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Depends which nurses you listen to. Imo there is a massive case to say NHS managers a seeing this as a great way to ask for an increased budget next year.


Trump has tried a variation of this excuse, which pretty much confirms that it’s a baseless conspiracy theory and a lie.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommyb...verreporting-covid-deaths-for-financial-gain/



oldfatfool said:


> And that's before you take into account that unless you have a cough your not welcome by the NHS. As far as I am concerned the nhs should be scrapped.


And replaced with what?


----------



## oldfatfool (31 Oct 2020)

Bollo said:


> And replaced with what?



Anything that treats everyone rather than focusing on one illness and primarily one age group.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

Oh come on Boris the BBC have now had to wheel out Professor Sunetra Gupta she's not said anything of sense from the start.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Oct 2020)

This epitomises the weak, shilly shallying nature of government under Johnson.

Wouldn't be like this under Thatcher.


----------



## Unkraut (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What do you think is the root cause of this non- compliance?


At the risk of stating the obvious, that is the key question. Whatever the government does, if too many in the population won't support it, it becomes pointless in suppressing the spread. 

It would be a bit of nerve for me to try to answer this when I don't live in the country, not that non-compliance is a uniquely British thing. I imagine everywhere starting getting a bit lax over the course of the summer.

If I have noticed anything from the _Daily Wail_ brigade, it is that the reasons for the hygiene distancing measure have simply not penetrated their brains. They haven't got a clue, and/or they have been listening to disinformation from those sharing their ignorance on the internet. They don't believe wearing masks will help, and some even maintain this is actually harmful! Considering how many of them would be on the far right, they are extremely bolshy. They are right-wing snowflakes.

They just don't understand the object is to protect the health service from being overrun. 

The same phenomenon occurs amongst Brexiteer commenters on YT - willful ignorance, a distrust of experts and gullibility in believing those who tell them what they want to hear.

It's a strange thing to behold, a kind of stupor. I've tried answering a couple of times, but you are not dealing with reason or people who at least make an effort to read what you actually said.

It might also be the government has been woefully inadequate in informing the country the reasons for its actions, and the two put together are quite literally a deadly combination.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Oct 2020)

Think it's bad taste the BBC putting a dancing mime on to distract from the boffins


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

So which sofa has Boris found the extra Nurses and doctors from or are they the students ones they now count in the numbers ?
The millions of rapid tests , the lab space and staff to process them ? Testing whole cities oh come on Boris tell the truth.


----------



## kingrollo (31 Oct 2020)

Will he get parliament's approval ?


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (31 Oct 2020)

Some people I know now chatting about whether this will mean increased pressure for a Scotland-wide lockdown.


----------



## DCLane (31 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> So which sofa has Boris found the extra Nurses and doctors from or are they the students ones they now count in the numbers ?
> The millions of rapid tests , the lab space and staff to process them ? Testing whole cities oh cam on Boris tell the truth.



There are no more additional nurses/doctors - the total includes returners and students.

In terms of tests, wait and see. No evidence of these yet either.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

DCLane said:


> There are no more additional nurses/doctors - the total includes returners and students.
> 
> In terms of tests, wait and see. No evidence of these yet either.


I know that, you know and many more do not sure Boris get's it though.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Predictions:
> 
> 1. We're in the shoot. But we won't say why.
> 2. Don't want to do anything, against all instincts yadayadayada.
> ...




Just waiting 7 before shouting house!


----------



## MrGrumpy (31 Oct 2020)

Out of his dep


Handlebar Moustache said:


> Some people I know now chatting about whether this will mean increased pressure for a Scotland-wide lockdown.


i hope not  . We have turned a corner , the issue is West of Scotland and Dundee which seems to be ticking up the way !


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 Oct 2020)




----------



## Rusty Nails (31 Oct 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> i hope not  . We have turned a corner , the issue is West of Scotland and Dundee which seems to be ticking up the way !



I admire your confidence that you have turned a corner. Do you know what's around it?

I think there's a long way to go this winter, everywhere.


----------



## Handlebar Moustache (31 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I admire your confidence that you have turned a corner. Do you know what's around it?
> 
> I think there's a long way to go this winter, everywhere.



Well indeed. If I was a betting cycler I would put money on a Scotland-wide lockdown (our tier 4/5) in the next few weeks.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

Nice to see a clear and constant message from Boris 
Mar 19: Turn tide in 12 weeks
May 17: “Near normality” by end of July
July 17: “Significant normality” by Christmas 
Sep 9: “back to normal by Christmas” 
Oct 23: “some aspects of our lives... back to normal" by Christmas 
TONIGHT: very different and better by spring


----------



## marinyork (31 Oct 2020)

Not the end, or even the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning, or something like that .


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (31 Oct 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I admire your confidence that you have turned a corner. Do you know what's around it?



Sharks with frickin' lasers, the way things are going.


----------



## mjr (31 Oct 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Will he get parliament's approval ?


Yes, but it'll be damaging if he has to rely on Labour votes to do so, which is why they wined-dined Steve Baker this afternoon.


----------



## marinyork (31 Oct 2020)

mjr said:


> Yes, but it'll be damaging if he has to rely on Labour votes to do so, which is why they wined-dined Steve Baker this afternoon.



Ah the labour bit doesn't matter. I do wonder what'll happen about what parliament puts for expiration of the restrictions and what comes after 2nd December. I feel that bit could be the more interesting bit.


----------



## mjr (31 Oct 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> BBC [...] have just interviewed at some length Prof Neil Ferguson from Imperial College whose research and urgings produced a first lockdown which he then broke by popping round to his lover.


I thought his lover popped round to him, so he didn't break the rules, but was pretty clearly complicit BICBW.


> Behind him was what looked very much like Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, but the caption said his talking head and torso in the middle of the screen was coming from Oxford.


Background clearly computer-generated because it was reflected and the writing on IC read right to left.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

New restrictions information full conditions and law to follow later once parliament has had a bust up. 
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-nat...ty-taxon=774cee22-d896-44c1-a611-e3109cce8eae


----------



## midlife (31 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> New restrictions information full conditions and law to follow later once parliament has had a bust up.
> https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-nat...ty-taxon=774cee22-d896-44c1-a611-e3109cce8eae



Looking through that they have reduced the vulnerable age from 70 to 60 to reflect mortality stats I guess.

As I'm 60 I have to reduce contacts with other people as much as possible, that's gong to go down well at work as I'll have to be bubbled with the people I work with and not meet anybody else. The NHS has been mooting this for a while to stop hospital transmission. They have been itching to close staff / coffee rooms.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

midlife said:


> Looking through that they have reduced the vulnerable age from 70 to 60 to reflect mortality stats I guess.
> 
> As I'm 60 I have to reduce contacts with other people as much as possible, that's gong to go down well at work as I'll have to be bubbled with the people I work with and not meet anybody else. The NHS has been mooting this for a while to stop hospital transmission. They have been itching to close staff / coffee rooms.



I think the age changed with updated "shielding/staying safe" advice.
Can see it going down like a lead balloon given an ageing work force it may take out even more staff from direct care which is just what we need right now. Maybe that's way they split "vulnerable" into vulnerable and extremely vulnerable.


----------



## marinyork (31 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> I think the age changed with updated "shielding/staying safe" advice.
> Can see it going down like a lead balloon given an ageing work force it may take out even more staff from direct care which is just what we need right now. Maybe that's way they split "vulnerable" into vulnerable and extremely vulnerable.



Probably the right decision with what we know now.

Also those who are morbidly obese has been estimated to be 4% of the population. That's more than 2.5 million people. More workers there.


----------



## midlife (31 Oct 2020)

tom73 said:


> I think the age changed with updated "shielding/staying safe" advice.
> Can see it going down like a lead balloon given an ageing work force it may take out even more staff from direct care which is just what we need right now. Maybe that's way they split "vulnerable" into vulnerable and extremely vulnerable.



My clinics are segregated into vulnerable / non vulnerable. Currently 70 years is the cut off age however fit. Been told that at work I can't catch Covid because of procedures and that's why we switch off the NHS app.

Gives the management side more to think about, I'm just a clinical grunt!


----------



## Dave Davenport (31 Oct 2020)

It's OK, Boris has just awarded a £200m contract to a start up tech company (directors; a Mr & Mrs Cummings) who have promised to produce a working 'whole world' time machine by Christmas.


----------



## tom73 (31 Oct 2020)

At least the lockdown news has pushed this down the list so one government positive. Today the Uk joined an exclusive club ninth after the US, India, Brazil, Russia, France, Spain, Argentina and Colombia. We hit a million cases given the mess testing is in and has been from the start the real number is well over that.


----------



## raleighnut (31 Oct 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> From Kit's feed we also discover the oh so surprising news that Aaron Banks is an innumerate unfeeling çunt of the highest order:
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322232057494470659



Look at it from a 'tory' point of view, that's a shitload of people they don't have to pay pensions to and not only that once we are dead there will be a bunch more houses they can buy up and rent out.


----------



## raleighnut (31 Oct 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> I'll just dig out my oxygen tent and my inflatable chimp. What the fark is the use of stopping people from shopping for a new telly if everyone is still going to work / school to sit indoors for 8 hours with strangers. Even if the r rate comes down it will only increase again, it's all pointless the disease is here to stay either live with it or we might as well all slit our wrists because we will all be farked mentally and socially if the government is going to tell us all we can do is work and sleep (and then only in your primary residence regardless that you might own anywhere else) total lockdown is sheer stupidity, a bit like Brexit, just another way of farking the country and making the rich richer and the poor poorer.


The like is for the post, not the facts 😢


----------



## Bollo (31 Oct 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Anything that treats everyone rather than focusing on one illness and primarily one age group.


So you want to abolish something but haven't given any thought to what should replace it?

The NHS was put under enormous pressure by a new and poorly-understood disease that was particularly dangerous to older people and those in poor health. Guess were these people tend to hang out? 

The decisions taken about maintaining NHS services at the height of the pandemic in March and April were judgement calls and would have had to balance competing risks and trade-offs, possibly with a good dose of political interference thrown in. Whether those decisions were right will probably only become clear once the pandemic is either cured or mitigated. The NHS is a finite resource so when demand exceeds supply something has to give. If you want more capacity, then be willing to pay for it.

Other health services (Spain, France, Italy for example, the US doesn't have a health service, it has a health industry) suffered similar or worse breakdowns. For all its faults, the NHS does a reasonable job despite the UK having one of the lowest per-capita spends across similar industrialised, high-income nations. Funding is a political decision. If you want a better health system, then vote for a government that's willing to be honest about how much that really costs. Abolishing something doesn't make the problem go away.


----------



## livpoksoc (1 Nov 2020)

Bollo said:


> So you want to abolish something but haven't given any thought to what should replace it?
> 
> The NHS was put under enormous pressure by a new and poorly-understood disease that was particularly dangerous to older people and those in poor health. Guess were these people tend to hang out?
> 
> ...




All of this. The original comment seems to fly in the face of the naysayers of the NHS who usually decry 'wasted spending' on very specific treatments for marginalised individuals or 'health tourism'.

You will miss it when it's gone.


----------



## oldfatfool (1 Nov 2020)

The fact is that at the start of the pandemic the NHS stopped treating other ailments on the belief that it would eventually need the capacity to treat covid. Cancer sir? Come back in 6 months we might need this bed for someone else. Boris banged on last night that this lockdown was about not forcing the NHS to make a choice about who it treats and saves, but sorry i think that choice as already been made.


----------



## IaninSheffield (1 Nov 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> The fact is that at the start of the pandemic the NHS stopped treating other ailments on the belief that it would eventually need the capacity to treat covid. Cancer sir? Come back in 6 months we might need this bed for someone else.


Well, not exactly.
From 'NEXT STEPS ON NHS RESPONSE TO COVID-19' issued by CE & COO of NHS England on 17th March.
"_Assume that you will need to postpone all non-urgent elective operations from 
15th April at the latest, for a period of at least three months. ... Emergency 
admissions, cancer treatment and other clinically urgent care should continue 
unaffected. In the interim, providers should continue to use all available 
capacity for elective operations including the independent sector, before 
COVID constraints curtail such work._"
Though the experience of individuals in different parts of the country may of course not reflect that intent.


----------



## Bollo (1 Nov 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> The fact is that at the start of the pandemic the NHS stopped treating other ailments on the belief that it would eventually need the capacity to treat covid. Cancer sir? Come back in 6 months we might need this bed for someone else. Boris banged on last night that this lockdown was about not forcing the NHS to make a choice about who it treats and saves, but sorry i think that choice as already been made.


If the NHS stopped all other treatment, I really need to find out who that guy was with his hand up my @rse!?


----------



## vickster (1 Nov 2020)

Bollo said:


> If the NHS stopped all other treatment, I really need to find out who that guy was with his hand up my @rse!?


His whole hand 
Was his name Herriot?


----------



## Bollo (1 Nov 2020)

vickster said:


> His whole hand
> Was his name Herriot?


It bloody felt like it! 😬


----------



## MrGrumpy (1 Nov 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> Well indeed. If I was a betting cycler I would put money on a Scotland-wide lockdown (our tier 4/5) in the next few weeks.


That’s what we don’t want to do and I hope it doesn’t happen.  . West of Scotland should have been in tier 4 now ! Something persuaded the FM not to  ,liked To think it’s because cases are dropping but something tells me it might be the issue with her vast majority of voters ! 
Edit

just to add , I suppose the chance of a national lockdown might be more clear for Scotland if furlough is extended


----------



## tom73 (1 Nov 2020)

@oldfatfool You know that to be fact do you or are reading the in the papers? The NHS at no point has closed to anyone who need’s immediate or emergency treatment. Elective surgery was on the whole stopped. Some other treatments based on individual clinical history was delayed based on the risk of COVID outweighing other factors. But only if the clinical history allowed. Not wholesale but case by case. Effect of COVID on NHS capacity is not just beds you simply can’t run a normal health service with COVID all around. Every intervention or patient contact now needs PPE , distancing means less room in clinics, more staff off with sickness or isolating. Some services stopped not because of beds but a total lack of planning and lack of PPE. Thanks to governments forgetting calls to plan and stock up.

Most of the NHS is outside a hospital primary care never closed and much has been running on the whole at normal levels. Face to face GP appointments as the norm has stopped. But most people never need a face to face appointment in the first place, other services like pharmacies remained open. Many clinics still ran but in different ways like drive thoughts or moved to other buildings like unused football function rooms.

What Boris was saying and clearly you’ve missed the point. Is that come the week of Christmas the whole of the NHS not just Critical care or ICU will totally run out of beds. Not just for covid but for everyone that means no treatment for anyone. Which leaves one option only clinicians making life or death decisions not an clinical need but on bed numbers. That means allowing people to die on the street outside the hospitals or in the back of ambulance's on mass or in hospital corridors alone. Not just the old but anyone now think about it. No one can ever know if they need care or become critically ill including you.
I’ve seen the effect of making a clinical call to stop treatment has on ones who have to make them. Having to make it day in day out on just having a bed or not. Will break many HCP’s never mind ones who at home will have pick up pieces. 

The NHS is not prefect it never was but a hell of a lot of work , by many has gone into stopping the wheels coming off first time round at what personal cast only time will tell. Most of the work you and others will never see or what effect being pushed to limit has had. So for the ones who have and ones who live with them kindly either get the facts right, try and understand the bigger picture, but above all have some respect to the many who everyday try and care for others even when the odds are not looking good.


----------



## fossyant (1 Nov 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> Boris banged on last night that this lockdown was about not forcing the NHS to make a choice about who it treats and saves, but sorry i think that choice as already been made.



I'm due some blood tests, but I won't be bothering. Didn't bother 18 months ago as the queue was horrendous, and the consultant then 'made up' my test results in a letter to my GP. Shan't be going near the flea pit this time. The test's aren't essential - only endocrinology.


----------



## PaulB (1 Nov 2020)

Bollo said:


> If the NHS stopped all other treatment, I really need to find out who that guy was with his hand up my @rse!?


Bars and nightclubs still open in your area then?


----------



## Bollo (1 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> @oldfatfool You know that to be fact do you or are reading the in the papers? The NHS at no point has closed to anyone who need’s immediate or emergency treatment. Elective surgery was on the whole stopped. Some other treatments based on individual clinical history was delayed based on the risk of COVID outweighing other factors. But only if the clinical history allowed. Not wholesale but case by case. Effect of COVID on NHS capacity is not just beds you simply can’t run a normal health service with COVID all around. Every intervention or patient contact now needs PPE , distancing means less room in clinics, more staff off with sickness or isolating. Some services stopped not because of beds but a total lack of planning and lack of PPE. Thanks to governments forgetting calls to plan and stock up.
> 
> Most of the NHS is outside a hospital primary care never closed and much has been running on the whole at normal levels. Face to face GP appointments as the norm has stopped. But most people never need a face to face appointment in the first place, other services like pharmacies remained open. Many clinics still ran but in different ways like drive thoughts or moved to other buildings like unused football function rooms.
> 
> ...


Have more likes.


----------



## tom73 (1 Nov 2020)

As we lockdown yet another liberal democracy is once again recording zero cases. They’ve had a few issues along the way but acted on them quickly and hit Covid hard. Above all as with NZ they admitted when things went wrong held inquiries and learned from it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54768038


----------



## Julia9054 (1 Nov 2020)

There are alot of people shouting on Twitter about the NHS stopping cancer treatment so I thought I would look up some of the relevant figures. 
Patients are supposed to be seen by the relevant specialist within 2 weeks of a GP referral for suspected cancer. The standard for this for a trust not to be failing is 93%. The figures nationally for August (latest month available) are as follows 2018 - 91.7%,2019 - 89.4% and this year - 87.8%. A steady decline in meeting the required standard over the last 3 years rather than a massive drop this year only.


----------



## mjr (1 Nov 2020)

fossyant said:


> I'm due some blood tests, but I won't be bothering. Didn't bother 18 months ago as the queue was horrendous, and the consultant then 'made up' my test results in a letter to my GP. Shan't be going near the flea pit this time. The test's aren't essential - only endocrinology.


I've had bloods and X rays since March with no problems. Hospital is a strange austere stripped down place with most of the paper notices and things like child play area toys removed but they seem to be coping OK. I also know from others that cancer care continued but with delays from enhanced cleaning, lower waiting area capacity and so on.


----------



## MarkF (1 Nov 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> There are alot of people shouting on Twitter about the NHS stopping cancer treatment so I thought I would look up some of the relevant figures.
> Patients are supposed to be seen by the relevant specialist within 2 weeks of a GP referral for suspected cancer. The standard for this for a trust not to be failing is 93%. The figures nationally for August (latest month available) are as follows 2018 - 91.7%,2019 - 89.4% and this year - 87.8%. A steady decline in meeting the required standard over the last 3 years rather than a massive drop this year only.



That is interesting but the figures for GP referrals would also be needed for those years?


----------



## Julia9054 (1 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> That is interesting but the figures for GP referrals would also be needed for those years?


Down this year according to a report in the Lancet. Report says they are unable to determine whether that is due to people unable to see their GP or people deliberately not wanting to bother their GP or assuming they won't be able to be seen.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

Handlebar Moustache said:


> Some people I know now chatting about whether this will mean increased pressure for a Scotland-wide lockdown.


Nicola always trumps Boris, so, I suspect Scotland will be having double lock down, for eight weeks.


----------



## MarkF (1 Nov 2020)

Dr Clare Craig has discovered a lot of anomolies in testing procedures/results and believes we have a testing problem, no longer an epidemic. 

https://logicinthetimeofcovid.com/blog/

https://lockdownsceptics.org/how-covid-deaths-are-over-counted/

I include this graph to provide perspective when confronted with hysterical recent headlines like "4000 deaths per day", it is plainly cobblers, about 1600 die every day from ALL causes.


----------



## MarkF (1 Nov 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Down this year according to a report in the Lancet. Report says they are unable to determine whether that is due to people unable to see their GP or people deliberately not wanting to bother their GP or assuming they won't be able to be seen.



Thank you. I do think people think they cannot access the NHS when they can.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

fossyant said:


> I'm due some blood tests, but I won't be bothering. Didn't bother 18 months ago as the queue was horrendous, and the consultant then 'made up' my test results in a letter to my GP. Shan't be going near the flea pit this time. The test's aren't essential - only endocrinology.


Yes, myself and Mrs @BoldonLad needed blood tests. Our GP Surgery gave us a telephone number to call, to make an appointment. That was three weeks ago. We have phoned the number, several times per day, for the past three weeks. No answer. No-one at GP surgery has queried why no tests done (so much for the multi billion. Pound IT system). Several of my pals are having same experience.


----------



## tom73 (1 Nov 2020)

How do you get compliance ? This... which is just how other part of world have done it. 

View: https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1322865637551722497?s=21


----------



## oldfatfool (1 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> How do you get compliance ? This... which is just how other part of world have done it.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1322865637551722497?s=21



When someone can show me the legitimacy of stopping overnight stays in second homes and the closure of golf courses and how they effect infection rates in comparison to workplaces, schools and colleges then I will stand the drop. No doubt these two will be the last restrictions lifted (again) after all other money generating venues have opened regardless of their effect on infection rates!


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## Joey Shabadoo (1 Nov 2020)

#wewillnotcomply is trending on twitter. peanuts


----------



## Edwardoka (1 Nov 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> #wewillnotcomply is trending on twitter. peanuts


As you know I am one of the least authoritarian people around but I reckon some boots on necks is the only way to sort this out.
(If my neck gets stood on feel free to post this comment on the leopardsatemyface subreddit)


----------



## midlife (1 Nov 2020)

Nipped out to get some more decking screws, roads very busy with queue around the block at B & Q. I wonder if there's going to be a mad rush to buy loo roll, pasta, rice, flour at the supermarkets again?


----------



## oldwheels (1 Nov 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, myself and Mrs @BoldonLad needed blood tests. Our GP Surgery gave us a telephone number to call, to make an appointment. That was three weeks ago. We have phoned the number, several times per day, for the past three weeks. No answer. No-one at GP surgery has queried why no tests done (so much for the multi billion. Pound IT system). Several of my pals are having same experience.


Don't seem to be any problems in the part of Scotland where I live. Appointment made no problem and going on Tuesday for bloods and B12.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Don't seem to be any problems in the part of Scotland where I live. Appointment made no problem and going on Tuesday for bloods and *B12.*



Mrs @BoldonLad managed to get her B12 injection, it "only" took four telephone calls to the GP surgery to arrange an appointment.


----------



## Mr Celine (1 Nov 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Nicola always trumps Boris, so, I suspect Scotland will be having double lock down, for eight weeks.


She follows the science and expert recommendations, which were for a 'circuit breaker' four weeks ago. 
Early days yet, but seems to be having an effect on the rolling 7 day average. 
.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Nov 2020)

Political bias aside..is there any scientific evidence (either way) that the 15 minute covid tests exist or don't exist ?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Political bias aside..is there any scientific evidence (either way) that the 15 minute covid tests exist or don't exist ?



Review here. 

Short version: Yes, but limited understanding of accuracy and utility. 

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3868


----------



## classic33 (1 Nov 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> Well, not exactly.
> From 'NEXT STEPS ON NHS RESPONSE TO COVID-19' issued by CE & COO of NHS England on 17th March.
> "_Assume that you will need to postpone all non-urgent elective operations from
> 15th April at the latest, for a period of at least three months. ... Emergency
> ...


Pity that never happened. Leaving people to fend for themselves.

All mine were stopped when this kicked off. And still waiting to see if they'll restart.



classic33 said:


> Another letter, from another specialist, saying that due to the current conditions, any further treatment will have to be via my GP. That ends all hospital treatment for the foreseeable future.
> 
> I can't even get an appointment with the GP. Next hospital visit may well be an A&E department. Not by choice either.
> 
> ...


----------



## classic33 (1 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> Dr Clare Craig has discovered a lot of anomolies in testing procedures/results and believes we have a testing problem, no longer an epidemic.
> 
> https://logicinthetimeofcovid.com/blog/
> 
> ...


Is a Naturopathic Physician a proper doctor though?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (1 Nov 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> As you know I am one of the least authoritarian people around but I reckon some boots on necks is the only way to sort this out.
> (If my neck gets stood on feel free to post this comment on the leopardsatemyface subreddit)



Quite. Take this one - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-54769055 


> Officers who were called to Yate at around 22:30 GMT on Saturday said up to 700 people were in attendance.
> Some of the crowd began acting violently towards officers as they were told to leave, Avon and Somerset Police said.


Arrest every single one of them.


----------



## fossyant (1 Nov 2020)

midlife said:


> Nipped out to get some more decking screws, roads very busy with queue around the block at B & Q. I wonder if there's going to be a mad rush to buy loo roll, pasta, rice, flour at the supermarkets again?



Mad rush for decking !!! Took ages to sort out our friends decking for her. Long wait for timber.


----------



## mjr (1 Nov 2020)

oldfatfool said:


> When someone can show me the legitimacy of stopping overnight stays in second homes and the closure of golf courses and how they effect infection rates in comparison to workplaces, schools and colleges then I will stand the drop. No doubt these two will be the last restrictions lifted (again) after all other money generating venues have opened regardless of their effect on infection rates!


Who on here cares about golfists? The limit of cycling group rides to just 2 is really rather bizarre given no cases reported linked to cycling and I suspect it is based on the fear there will be daffodils going "it's a bit parky - let's go in and chat" which they didn't do so much in April/May.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Political bias aside..is there any scientific evidence (either way) that *the 15 minute covid tests exist or don't exist *?



I cannot double check this, at the moment, since my son is currently "in transit" to an offshore installation, but, my son has been working on various offshore support vessels / offshore installations over the past few months, and, has had a covid test before joining, and when leaving each ship/installation. Since there was not a two day delay at each movement, I assume it was some form of "on the spot answer" test. I will double check with him when it is possible to contact him again.


----------



## marinyork (1 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Political bias aside..is there any scientific evidence (either way) that the 15 minute covid tests exist or don't exist ?



They exist. They are used in other countries.

In the UK they exist as roubaix has said, but there are further larger and larger 'trials'.

Even if they get rolled out, some of the local public health heads may stick two fingers up at the population and say we don't want them, as seems to be the case reported from the newspapers days ago. The head of public health where I live spoke to a newspaper and made a series of unfortunate comments that made him sound like a right numpty not fit to be in the post.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Nov 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, myself and Mrs @BoldonLad needed blood tests. Our GP Surgery gave us a telephone number to call, to make an appointment. That was three weeks ago. We have phoned the number, several times per day, for the past three weeks. No answer. No-one at GP surgery has queried why no tests done (so much for the multi billion. Pound IT system). Several of my pals are having same experience.



Can you get your GP to book you in for blood tests at your local hospital pathology department? My GP had a 6 week waiting list for blood work but said if I didn’t mind going to the hospital, they could do it the following week. I got my bloods done three days later.


----------



## mjr (1 Nov 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Can you get your GP to book you in for blood tests at your local hospital pathology department? My GP had a 6 week waiting list for blood work but said if I didn’t mind going to the hospital, they could do it the following week. I got my bloods done three days later.


I only had to book in if I want bloods drawn at the village surgery. I used to be able to walk in to the phlebotomy area at the hospital with blood forms in hand and have it collected within 10 minutes. I suspect I'd be asked to go for a walk in the grounds and return at a given time now, but I've not heard of booking being needed even during lockdown. For obvious reasons, I preferred not to travel to the town hospital for it this year.

If anywhere has worse services, it may not be entirely covid-caused...


----------



## Ming the Merciless (1 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> I only had to book in if I want bloods drawn at the village surgery. I used to be able to walk in to the phlebotomy area at the hospital with blood forms in hand and have it collected within 10 minutes. I suspect I'd be asked to go for a walk in the grounds and return at a given time now, but I've not heard of booking being needed even during lockdown. For obvious reasons, I preferred not to travel to the town hospital for it this year.
> 
> If anywhere has worse services, it may not be entirely covid-caused...



Oh our hospital was walk in but you still needed a GP referral. The referral is the bit I was referencing when saying booked in. At done paperless and results available online to me within 24 hours.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Can you get your GP to book you in for blood tests at your local hospital pathology department? My GP had a 6 week waiting list for blood work but said if I didn’t mind going to the hospital, they could do it the following week. I got my bloods done three days later.



That IS at the. local Hospital (Phlebotomy Dept)!

The GP no longer does blood tests at the surgery.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Oh our hospital *was walk in* but you still needed a GP referral. The referral is the bit I was referencing when saying booked in. At done paperless and results available online to me within 24 hours.



Yes, ours too, pre-covid. 

There were often long queues, but, never waited more than 30 minutes.

Now, it is all appointment, but, it would appear the person who is supposed to answer the phone has gone AWOL.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> I only had to book in if I want bloods drawn at the village surgery. I used to be able *to walk in to the phlebotomy area at the hospital with blood forms in hand* and have it collected within 10 minutes. I suspect I'd be asked to go for a walk in the grounds and return at a given time now, but I've not heard of booking being needed even during lockdown. For obvious reasons, I preferred not to travel to the town hospital for it this year.
> 
> If anywhere has worse services, it may not be entirely covid-caused...



Yes, that is exactly what we were able to do, pre-covid (our GP Surgery no longer does blood samples onsite). 

But, since Covid, GP gives you a phone number to make an appointment at Phlebotomy Department. Problem is, phone never seems to get answered. Quite why the multi billion £ NHS IT system does not allow the GP (or one of his minions) to make an appointment on-line is anyones guess.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Nov 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, that is exactly what we were able to do, pre-covid (our GP Surgery no longer does blood samples onsite).
> 
> But, since Covid, GP gives you a phone number to make an appointment at Phlebotomy Department. Problem is, phone never seems to get answered. Quite why the multi billion £ NHS IT system does not allow the GP (or one of his minions) to make an appointment on-line is anyones guess.



To what multi billion NHS IT system do you refer ?

I work in the NHS and there isn't one.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> To what multi billion NHS IT system do you refer ?
> 
> *I work in the NHS and there isn't one.*



Yes, I know, I was being facetious. There was a major IT system development project, a number of years ago, I have been retired for 14 years, and, it was on-going before I retired. It is so long ago, I cannot remember the details, it may have started in the Blair years. 

It would appear to have disappeared without trace, after huge expenditure on it.

As a retired IT person, the inept IT/Communications within the NHS is a real irritation. I know we may all hate them, but, Amazon, Hermes, even Royal Mail can allow clients to track their parcel with remarkable accuracy, NHS seem unable to even communicate between departments.


----------



## DCLane (1 Nov 2020)

I'm guessing it's SystmOne - which has ever only partly worked.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Nov 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, I know, I was being facetious. There was a major IT system development project, a number of years ago, I have been retired for 14 years, and, it was on-going before I retired. It is so long ago, I cannot remember the details, it may have started in the Blair years.
> 
> It would appear to have disappeared without trace, after huge expenditure on it.
> 
> As a retired IT person, the inept IT/Communications within the NHS is a real irritation. I know we may all hate them, but, Amazon, Hermes, even Royal Mail can allow clients to track their parcel with remarkable accuracy, NHS seem unable to even communicate between departments.



The national programme was scrapped shortly after the Tories won the 2010 (I think ) election.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> The national programme was scrapped shortly after the Tories won the 2010 (I think ) election.



Considering the programme must have been going for at least ten years before 2010, it probably makes Cross-Rail and HS2 look successful.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Nov 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Considering the programme must have been going for at least ten years before 2010, it probably makes Cross-Rail and HS2 look successful.



Well it would have given you the systems - that you moaned weren't there a couple of posts back  # irony.


----------



## IaninSheffield (1 Nov 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, that is exactly what we were able to do, pre-covid (our GP Surgery no longer does blood samples onsite).
> 
> But, since Covid, GP gives you a phone number to make an appointment at Phlebotomy Department. Problem is, phone never seems to get answered. Quite why the multi billion £ NHS IT system does not allow the GP (or one of his minions) to make an appointment on-line is anyones guess.


I'd give the hospital main switchboard a ring, explain the situation and see whether they can help.
Phoned our Pleb. Dept. to make my appt. a couple of weeks ago, got straight through and sorted in a couple of mins. They've moved blood testing to one of the smaller hospital wings elsewhere in the town, so tomorrow I guess I'll find out how that's working.
From recent response in the thread, it would seem that the level of service we experience is somewhat variable. Perhaps that's understandable, if not highly distressing for those suffering from that variability.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well *it would have given you the systems *- that you moaned weren't there a couple of posts back  # irony.



After 10+ years "work in progress" and, not finished .... hmmm

I did at one stage know the chap in charge, cannot recall his surname now, Bernard something, I think


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> I'd give the hospital main switchboard a ring, explain the situation and see whether they can help.
> Phoned our Pleb. Dept. to make my appt. a couple of weeks ago, got straight through and sorted in a couple of mins. They've moved blood testing to one of the smaller hospital wings elsewhere in the town, so tomorrow I guess I'll find out how that's working.
> From recent response in the thread, it would seem that* the level of service we experience is somewhat variable. *Perhaps that's understandable, if not highly distressing for those suffering from that variability.



Indeed, time for some "postcode lottery" headlines in the media


----------



## mjr (1 Nov 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> From recent response in the thread, it would seem that the level of service we experience is somewhat variable. Perhaps that's understandable, if not highly distressing for those suffering from that variability.


Indeed. Sympathy to those suffering but I feel this goes back far longer than covid. "Localism" has turned out to be mainly a successful rebranded "postcode lottery". Before complaining, remember this was the will of the people


----------



## MarkF (1 Nov 2020)

Mr Celine said:


> She follows the science and expert recommendations, which were for a 'circuit breaker' four weeks ago.
> Early days yet, but seems to be having an effect on the rolling 7 day average.
> .
> View attachment 555784



It's seasonal (I did not move virus patients from early June until very recently) there was an up and now there is a down, there''ll be another up in later winter as there always is, then there'll be another down. But by far the largest % of deaths will be from care homes and hospital acquired infections......so how would a societal circuit breaker reduce these deaths?


----------



## kingrollo (1 Nov 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> After 10+ years "work in progress" and, not finished .... hmmm
> 
> I did at one stage know the chap in charge, cannot recall his surname now, Bernard something, I think


As you probably know then - the national programme for IT was to implement a series a national systems. The first stage was to equip all the hospital's with compatible systems - this was pretty much done (seriously many hospitals were no windows green screen terminals)- the next stage was to link them all up - that's when the axe fell.

Shortly after this the hospital I work at decided to design its own system - which took 4 years - so 10 years to get all the hospitals on compatible systems , with hindsight - doesn't look too bad.


----------



## kingrollo (1 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> It's seasonal (I did not move virus patients from early June until very recently) there was an up and now there is a down, there''ll be another up in later winter as there always is, then there'll be another down. But by far the largest % of deaths will be from care homes and hospital acquired infections......so how would a societal circuit breaker reduce these deaths?



Funny I heard most transmissions were in family homes. One person brings it in - then the whole household gets it.


----------



## IaninSheffield (1 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> But by far the largest % of deaths will be from care homes and hospital acquired infections......so how would a societal circuit breaker reduce these deaths?


Well, those who work in care homes are members of society, so breaking societal chains of infection ought to reduce transmission rates in the homes surely?


----------



## marinyork (1 Nov 2020)

Fascinating

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/half-slovakia-population-covid-tested-covid-one-day

TL;DR Slovakia a tiny country of 5.5 million tests half the population in a single day. 25,000 people test positive. Around what the UK has with a population of 66 million!!!

Interesting as I wonder if the UK's positives are really at around 100,000 a day as the upper range of what the Whitty and the Vallance said yesterday.


----------



## classic33 (1 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> Indeed. Sympathy to those suffering but I feel this goes back far longer than covid. "Localism" has turned out to be mainly a successful rebranded "postcode lottery". Before complaining, remember this was the will of the people


If this was happening before this started, "postcode lottery" then perhaps you can explain how three different health trusts made the same decision. Different treatments for different conditions.

Two stopped, one will mean starting from scratch, another means they don't know the cause but have left me wondering what next.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Nov 2020)

German government have now advised everyone to stock up on sausages and cheese as they head into lockdown. This is referred to as the Wurst Käse scenario.


----------



## tom73 (1 Nov 2020)

marinyork said:


> Fascinating
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/half-slovakia-population-covid-tested-covid-one-day
> 
> ...



Never mind the failings of our testing the best we can still do is lob a test kit though a car window and expect some poor sod. Who may not be feeling great to one, read some instructions and two, manage to somehow stick a swab in the right place. To give a sample good enough to test but yet Slovakia and many others with no way the money as use. Can not only test on mass but have someone to do them. Even in people's homes. For mass testing to work we've got to look at the whole thing end to end and make it accessible to all turning away disabled people is not on , in placers that are easy to reach door to door would be even better. The capacity needed to do this can't be done with the current logistics. Looking past the army as nothing more a mass logistics company but as mass physical testers is long over due.


----------



## Mr Celine (1 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> It's seasonal (I did not move virus patients from early June until very recently) there was an up and now there is a down, there''ll be another up in later winter as there always is, then there'll be another down. But by far the largest % of deaths will be from care homes and hospital acquired infections......so how would a societal circuit breaker reduce these deaths?


Visits to care homes stopped. Pubs shut and no indoor mixing means less likliehood of staff catching the virus in the community and bringing it into care homes or hospitals.


----------



## marinyork (1 Nov 2020)

Mr Celine said:


> Visits to care homes stopped. Pubs shut and no indoor mixing means less likliehood of staff catching the virus in the community and bringing it into care homes or hospitals.



In England the government were talking of banning people working in more than one home. I don't know whether anything came of this suggestion.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

Mr Celine said:


> Visits to care homes stopped. Pubs shut and no indoor mixing means less likliehood of staff catching the virus in the community and bringing it into care homes or hospitals.


That is, of course, assuming people (including staff) follow the rules.

plus of course, not all care staff work in care homes, or, hospitals..... some even work in more than one place.


----------



## BoldonLad (1 Nov 2020)

marinyork said:


> In England the government were talking of banning people working in more than one home. I don't know whether anything came of this suggestion.


Not aware that this actually happened (officially), I do know that at least one company rearranged shifts to minimise staff/client contacts. But, of course, many care staff work for more than one employer.


----------



## Mr Celine (1 Nov 2020)

Our local authority in house care teams have been banned from working for any other employer. This is causing problems for staff who have now lost a large part of their income and also other private care homes which have lost a large part of their staff. 
Despite this there has been a local cluster which started last week, linked to the LA care team.


----------



## tom73 (1 Nov 2020)

marinyork said:


> In England the government were talking of banning people working in more than one home. I don't know whether anything came of this suggestion.


I'm not sure either not much has been said since. They did give LA's money to allow care home's to employ them on enough hours to not need to work in more then one. That was part of the PPE funding which is ending talk was that getting extended. Not sure it has yet or if it's enough.


----------



## classic33 (1 Nov 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Not aware that this actually happened (officially), I do know that at least one company rearranged shifts to minimise staff/client contacts. But, of course, many care staff work for more than one employer.


Some have allowed extra time for those carers going to more than one house.


----------



## Julia9054 (1 Nov 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Not aware that this actually happened (officially), I do know that at least one company rearranged shifts to minimise staff/client contacts. But, of course, many care staff work for more than one employer.


Some care staff don't actually work in residential homes but provide care in the client's own home. They are visiting several different premises a day


----------



## tom73 (1 Nov 2020)

A team at MIT looking into using IA to diagnosis Covid by the cough. It aspires to us AI framework was based on existed one for Alzheimer's research.Determined it could pick up four biomarkers relating to vocal cord strength, sentiment, lung and respiratory response, and muscular degradation specific to COVID-19. More a pre-screening tool than testing one if they get it working. 
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9208795


----------



## tom73 (1 Nov 2020)

Temperature maybe part of the control measures for covid. Much has been debated around this it looks like optimal figure maybe 5°C to 15°C. So having your window open and the heating on may not be sure a bad thing after all. 
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720330047


----------



## mjr (1 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> Temperature maybe part of the control measures for covid. Much has been debated around this it looks like optimal figure maybe 5°C to 15°C. So having your window open and the heating on may not be sure a bad thing after all.
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720330047


Optimal climatic temperature. Not the temperature where people caught it. It may simply mean covid19 spreads more easily in shut up rooms indoors and people are more likely to shut themselves up indoors when outdoor temperature is below 15°c, which doesn't seem surprising. The challenge is to persuade people to keep meeting outdoors or in ventilated spaces through winter.


----------



## cookiemonster (2 Nov 2020)

Oh FFS! Another bandwagon for this traitor to jump on. The Fox News cheques must've stopped arriving. 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...rexit-party-to-rebrand-as-anti-lockdown-voice


----------



## cookiemonster (2 Nov 2020)

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18838820.coronavirus-scotland-new-covid-lockdown-rules/

Mind boggling.


----------



## BoldonLad (2 Nov 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Some care staff don't actually work in residential homes but provide care in the client's own home. They are visiting several different premises a day



Yes. I think I said that, several posts back. My youngest daughter is one such carer.


----------



## MrGrumpy (2 Nov 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> https://www.thenational.scot/news/18838820.coronavirus-scotland-new-covid-lockdown-rules/
> 
> Mind boggling.



not that confusing ?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (2 Nov 2020)

That's my working from home issues sorted -


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (2 Nov 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> not that confusing ?


I agree, not confusing at all. Straightforward and sensible. And not much different from what’s already been in place for the last 3 weeks.


----------



## tom73 (2 Nov 2020)

Just had need to check up a few things. Had a look at the up dated infection control guide for clinical care and covid (20th oct). PHE for a good month has accepted airborne transmission and ventilation is now widely seen a good idea. Yet even it's own updated PIC guide is wrong. Can you move past AGP's being only risk


----------



## tom73 (2 Nov 2020)

Nice to see the BBC still wheeling out the expert cracks at least balance it with credible experts. Big hint credible experts don't need the daily hate to publish things.


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## Low Gear Guy (2 Nov 2020)

In a masterstroke of timing our furloughed staff have returned to the building


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## mjr (2 Nov 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> In a masterstroke of timing our furloughed staff have returned to the building


Planned before end of Friday (when the furlough scheme was to end on Sat) and no-one with authority works at weekends?


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## Low Gear Guy (2 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> Planned before end of Friday (when the furlough scheme was to end on Sat) and no-one with authority works at weekends?


Correct. This one cannot be blamed on company management. I assume this is not an isolated example.


----------



## mjr (2 Nov 2020)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Correct. This one cannot be blamed on company management. I assume this is not an isolated example.


It sort of can be blamed on company management because why haven't they set up some process to handle unexpected eleventh-hour announcements of law changes when it's pretty clear from 2020 so far that we're currently being governed by a group with all the thoughtful precision timing of a flock of headless chickens?

Almost certainly not an isolated example, though.


----------



## johnblack (2 Nov 2020)

Interesting data that shows current infections cases by country. Actually looks like we've gone in to lockdown at a much lower rate of infection than some of our neighbours.


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## mjr (2 Nov 2020)

johnblack said:


> Actually looks like we've gone in to lockdown at a much lower rate of infection than some of our neighbours.


Key words there are "looks like" in your comment and "The number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases: the main reason for that is limited testing" in the graph. We know England's outsourced-to-friends TTT has repeatedly been in shambles and maxed out repeatedly , but from the top of that graph, Belgium has taken a lot of stick for its widespread testing and cautious-bordering-on-overestimate reporting but it has been testing (the worst I've seen are some grumbles about too few test centres in Liege and a decision last week to temporarily stop testing asymptomatic people), I don't know about Czechia or Luxembourg, Slovenia built its testing capacity early and France has had its problems but the president intervened several times to get it back on track.

Also, that graph is only up to today and we've not gone into lockdown yet. Johnson hasn't had enough of dither, delay and death, so he wants to wait for Guy Fawkes Night for some reason. Hopefully social distancing won't stop them checking the basements!


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## johnblack (2 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> Key words there are "looks like" in your comment and "The number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases: the main reason for that is limited testing" in the graph. We know England's outsourced-to-friends TTT has repeatedly been in shambles and maxed out repeatedly , but from the top of that graph, Belgium has taken a lot of stick for its widespread testing and cautious-bordering-on-overestimate reporting but it has been testing (the worst I've seen are some grumbles about too few test centres in Liege and a decision last week to temporarily stop testing asymptomatic people), I don't know about Czechia or Luxembourg, Slovenia built its testing capacity early and France has had its problems but the president intervened several times to get it back on track.
> 
> Also, that graph is only up to today and we've not gone into lockdown yet. Johnson hasn't had enough of dither, delay and death, so he wants to wait for Guy Fawkes Night for some reason. Hopefully social distancing won't stop them checking the basements!


So basically you don't trust the figures and the UK are terrible.


----------



## mjr (2 Nov 2020)

johnblack said:


> So basically you don't trust the figures and the UK are terrible.


plus we've another three days yet of eejits having pre lockdown parties to aid transmission, but basically yes. Do you think the UK testing system has worked smoothly?


----------



## johnblack (2 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> plus we've another three days yet of eejits having pre lockdown parties to aid transmission, but basically yes. Do you think the UK testing system has worked smoothly?


There seems to be a lot of testing. Test and trace seems to be a bit of a failure, mind you I think Angela Merkel confirmed just the other day that it isn't working in Germany and it hasn't worked in France either. So I think most countries are probably in the same boat, the UK has the same problems that a lot of other countries are having and the same conversations are probably being had on CycleChat.NL or CycleChat.FR, and most people have no answer as to how this ends because there isn't one yet.


----------



## All uphill (2 Nov 2020)

News from the BBC that Prince William had the virus in April, but the royals didnt tell us to "avoid alarming the nation".

Thank goodness! I wouldn't have slept for worrying about someone I've never met, never will meet and is part of an institution I despise.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Nov 2020)

All uphill said:


> the royals didnt tell us to "avoid alarming the nation".



Or perhaps "to avoid being prosecuted for traveling with Covid symptoms". Though his father got away with it.


----------



## mjr (2 Nov 2020)

johnblack said:


> There seems to be a lot of testing. Test and trace seems to be a bit of a failure, mind you I think Angela Merkel confirmed just the other day that it isn't working in Germany and it hasn't worked in France either. So I think most countries are probably in the same boat, the UK has the same problems that a lot of other countries are having and the same conversations are probably being had on CycleChat.NL or CycleChat.FR, and most people have no answer as to how this ends because there isn't one yet.


If you think that Germany or France has suffered the same scale, scope and frequency of testing failures as the UK, then you need to look at where you're getting your news from! Maybe balance the diet of BBC and Sky misguided patriotism with France24 and DW, or try the Irish press?

No, we don't know how it'll end, anywhere, but that doesn't mean we have to ignore the donkeyisms.


----------



## johnblack (2 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> If you think that Germany or France has suffered the same scale, scope and frequency of testing failures as the UK, then you need to look at where you're getting your news from! Maybe balance the diet of BBC and Sky misguided patriotism with France24 and DW, or try the Irish press?
> 
> No, we don't know how it'll end, anywhere, but that doesn't mean we have to ignore the donkeyisms.


I think it was DW that reported it the other day, Merkel confirmed that they are no longer able to trace where 75% of infections come from. It was the Guardian reporting that the French app had only been downloaded 3m times in comparison to 12m in the UK.

I have no idea what donkeyisms are, I guess some kind of political thing. I don't think politics should pay any part in the conversation.


----------



## oldworld (2 Nov 2020)

If the UK hit tracing 75% of infections Boris would be claiming a world beating success.


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## johnblack (2 Nov 2020)

oldworld said:


> If the UK hit tracing 75% of infections Boris would be claiming a world beating success.


The Germans are hitting about 25%, but they are awesome. As I said previously, no one comes out of this particularly well, it's not about politics.


----------



## tom73 (2 Nov 2020)

oldworld said:


> If the UK hit tracing 75% of infections Boris would be claiming a world beating success.


He's not waited so fair.


----------



## tom73 (2 Nov 2020)

johnblack said:


> The Germans are hitting about 25%, but they are awesome. As I said previously, no one comes out of this particularly well, it's not about politics.



Do we only use other parts of Europe as a measure of how good / bad we at dealing with this? 
Other countries have had the same issues but are not well on the way to moving on to the next stage of this and living without active covid and again are case free. But on the alert to deal with any outbreaks quickly and effectively.


----------



## johnblack (2 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> Do we only use other parts of Europe as a measure of how good / bad we at dealing with this?
> Other countries have had the same issues but are not well on the way to moving on to the next stage of this and living without active covid and again are case free. But on the alert to deal with any outbreaks quickly and effectively.


No but it's just easier and I'd think a pretty good yardstick.

We could compare ourselves against all sorts of countries to prove a point one way or the other, but I'm not sure that achieves much.


----------



## tom73 (2 Nov 2020)

johnblack said:


> No but it's just easier and I'd think a pretty good yardstick.
> 
> We could compare ourselves against all sorts of countries to prove a point one way or the other, but I'm not sure that achieves much.


Why not ? It back's the facts that all effective measures always come down to the same things. None of which we have got a grip of and don't look like ripping any time soon.


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## tom73 (2 Nov 2020)

Which bag did Boris pull all these extra test's from ? Yet again figure chasing number of test's "possible" don't mean a thing.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Nov 2020)

johnblack said:


> I think it was DW that reported it the other day, Merkel confirmed that they are no longer able to trace where 75% of infections come from. It was the Guardian reporting that the French app had only been downloaded 3m times in comparison to 12m in the UK.
> 
> I have no idea what donkeyisms are, I guess some kind of political thing. I don't think politics should pay any part in the conversation.



Germany did much better first wave, by dint of acting sooner.

Then they got a functioning track and trace, which enabled looser restrictions than us, and lower caseload.

Second wave has now overwhelmed their tank and trace (we have never had a remotely functioning system at all). They've acted sooner than us (half the case load, 5x lower mortality rate), with a clear objective to get caseload back down to levels they can cope with. We don't yet know how successful they will be, of course.

As to politics - I'm afraid this has always and will always be political. Our response has been dictated by the ideology of the govt. Wanting a different policy (mine would be "copy Germany") is a political act.


----------



## tom73 (2 Nov 2020)

Magna "carter" trending on twitter. Anti lockdown lot now trying to use it as a way to not comply. In short the Magna Carta won't. 

View: https://twitter.com/goingmedieval/status/1323245542332338177?s=21


----------



## glasgowcyclist (2 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> Magna "carter" trending on twitter. Anti lockdown lot now trying to use it as a way to not comply. In short the Magna Carta won't.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/goingmedieval/status/1323245542332338177?s=21




These are the same numbskulls who try to claim being a freeman on the land allows them to avoid prosecution for traffic offences.


----------



## randynewmanscat (2 Nov 2020)

Jesus wept! 30% of Liverpools hospital patients are corona patients. "its only like the flu, no worse than any flu season", do the few proponents of that boll0x on here stick to that claim?


----------



## randynewmanscat (2 Nov 2020)

glasgowcyclist said:


> These are the same numbskulls who try to claim being a freeman on the land allows them to avoid prosecution for traffic offences.


Back in the war my grandad claimed his right to turn every light on in the house and keep the curtains open while the bombs rained down. Magna carta, covers all such social differences and choices. No it doesn't, it barely has significance in 21st century Britain.


----------



## randynewmanscat (2 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> Magna "carter" trending on twitter. Anti lockdown lot now trying to use it as a way to not comply. In short the Magna Carta won't.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/goingmedieval/status/1323245542332338177?s=21



Just realised where I have seen a similar fantasy. In the USA the people who printed off utterly boll0x "mask exemption certificates". 
I make no apology for saying that if people must die from this plague it needs to be these people and not the ones who have so far taken it seriously.


----------



## MarkF (2 Nov 2020)

Mr Celine said:


> Visits to care homes stopped. Pubs shut and no indoor mixing means less likliehood of staff catching the virus in the community and bringing it into care homes or hospitals.



All fine but if you can't contain it in hospitals with no visitors for many months and with NHS infection control professionals (now under pressure & flack), full PPE now used for everybody within 2m of a patient, any patient, and a huge amount of extra cleaning bods working 24/7, you can't protect a care home.......or supermarket or anywhere really.


----------



## MarkF (2 Nov 2020)

If the government had been honest we wouldn't be in the pickle we are now. I would imagine we all agree that pillar 2 testing is seriously flawed, it should have been stopped months ago and only pillar 1 tests accepted as data, preferably with 2 tests. How can double + counting be accepted as ok if only endorsed by a glib government explanation that it is a by product of it's counting dates? But funnily enough something that does not happen with - results. How can the day you are tested affect your chances of being tested positive? Wow, I am so glad professionals picked up on this illogical data and investigated.


----------



## MarkF (2 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> More tedious attempts to deny reality without any real point to make or sources for the many dubious claims.



I thought double counting was an accepted fact? Part of the gov counting procedure. Are you saying that is false? Double counting has been taking place since spring as even a Google search will show. Double counting + results continues today.

The chances of testing positive (depending on area) are higher on other days than others, that does not make sense, fortunately it's explained by Dr Craig here.

It's a reet conundrum, how can deaths be about to overtake admissions? That's what happens when you lie for long enough.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> That's what happens when you lie for long enough.



Who is lying about what pray tell? Be specific.

Excess deaths: 60,000
Serology, population surveys, Zoe symptom app all consistent on cases.

You're howling at the moon.


----------



## mjr (2 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> All fine but if you can't contain it in hospitals with no visitors for many months and with NHS infection control professionals (now under pressure & flack), full PPE now used for everybody within 2m of a patient, any patient, and a huge amount of extra cleaning bods working 24/7, you can't protect a care home.......or supermarket or anywhere really.


Unless either hospitals or supermarkets have changed since my last visit, one has a lot more people spending longer there needing more hands-on care than the other! So I don't see why it's a surprise that it's more difficult to control the virus in one than the other.


----------



## kingrollo (2 Nov 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> Jesus wept! 30% of Liverpools hospital patients are corona patients. "its only like the flu, no worse than any flu season", do the few proponents of that boll0x on here stick to that claim?



liverpools ambulance service declared a major incident tonight as the couldn't cope with calls - but "There's no second wave !!!!!"


----------



## tom73 (2 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> Unless either hospitals or supermarkets have changed since my last visit, one has a lot more people spending longer there needing more hands-on care than the other! So I don't see why it's a surprise that it's more difficult to control the virus in one than the other.


Not forgetting one is full sick people , a lot more staff with much more coming, a heck of a lot more contact points and you've no sooner cleaned it you back to square one.


----------



## Adam4868 (2 Nov 2020)

Mass testing for the city of Liverpool.
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/everyone-liverpool-tested-covid-19-19210041


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## Adam4868 (2 Nov 2020)

More on the testing in Liverpool..
2,000 military personnel arriving in Liverpool
- Whole city to be offered tests
- Hundreds of thousands of new rapid 'one hour tests'
- Operation launches on Friday
- If successful, will be rolled out in wider region and then other areas


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## kingrollo (2 Nov 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Mass testing for the city of Liverpool.
> https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/everyone-liverpool-tested-covid-19-19210041



Wasn't expecting that.

Of course that will skew the figures somewhat !


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## tom73 (2 Nov 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> More on the testing in Liverpool..
> 2,000 military personnel arriving in Liverpool
> - Whole city to be offered tests
> - Hundreds of thousands of new rapid 'one hour tests'
> ...


 Part of the plan is using the current test as in the past will they pull testing capacity from other areas. Or is this the extra capacity that Boris found by magic ?


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## Adam4868 (2 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> Part of the plan is using the current test as in the past will they pull testing capacity from other areas. Or is this the extra capacity that Boris found by magic ?


New one hour rapid testing.
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/how-fast-mass-covid-19-19209042


----------



## classic33 (2 Nov 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> More on the testing in Liverpool..
> 2,000 military personnel arriving in Liverpool
> - Whole city to be offered tests
> - Hundreds of thousands of new rapid 'one hour tests'
> ...


It's been the military, army, who've been manning the local test sites since they opened them here.


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## Adam4868 (2 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> It's been the military, army, who've been manning the local test sites since they opened them here.


I don't know,someone I know in Liverpool was telling me and I read it tonight in what I posted.I think it was meant to be rolled out/told tommorow but newspapers/reporters got hold of the story.Just seen it on newsnight aswell.


----------



## kingrollo (2 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> All fine but if you can't contain it in hospitals with no visitors for many months and with NHS infection control professionals (now under pressure & flack), full PPE now used for everybody within 2m of a patient, any patient, and a huge amount of extra cleaning bods working 24/7, you can't protect a care home.......or supermarket or anywhere really.



What's you're source for infection control people getting flak.

I work in an NHS hospital and haven't heard any such criticism.


----------



## classic33 (2 Nov 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> I don't know,someone I know in Liverpool was telling me and I read it tonight in what I posted.I think it was meant to be rolled out/told tommorow but newspapers/reporters got hold of the story.Just seen it on newsnight aswell.


Just checked the date of the last test, 24th September, and they were manning the test station then.

Could they shoot you if you decide against it?


----------



## Adam4868 (2 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> Just checked the date of the last test, 24th September, and they were manning the test station then.
> 
> Could they shoot you if you decide against it?


Lol...no it would be strictly voluntary.Saying.that if it helps out and gets us out of this nightmare I'd be more than happy to be tested.
Knowing this goverment it'll probally be Captain Mainwaring in charge.


----------



## classic33 (2 Nov 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Lol...no it would be strictly voluntary.*Saying.that if it helps out and gets us out of this nightmare I'd be more than happy to be tested.*
> Knowing this goverment it'll probally be Captain Mainwaring in charge.


Go and then change your mind about the test?

Fewer coming out than going in would lower the figures through.


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## tom73 (2 Nov 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> New one hour rapid testing.
> https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/how-fast-mass-covid-19-19209042
> 
> I was gong on the other link that talks of using both it's clearly a developing story so who knows.


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## Adam4868 (2 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> Go and then change your mind about the test?


Sorry ?


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## classic33 (2 Nov 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Sorry ?


If they did shoot you for not going through with the test.


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## Adam4868 (2 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> If they did shoot you for not going through with the test.


Lol..sorry had a drink ! Let me get to the end of the Vuelta then and I'll risk a bullet.


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## tom73 (3 Nov 2020)

I'm starting to think that covid won't turn out to be the prime example that's saves the NHS. But be the one thing that will achieve what governments have tried for years. Mark a turning point in the minds of the public that it's time for it go. Why ? because the amount of media and an ever growing public openly happy to question why and demand services back. National Covid Service is now common place some comments are now getting point that i'd be happy if Mrs 73 and other's just walked away. Be careful people once enough stop valuing things they do go. Once they do they don't came back and very often the grass is not greener on the other side.


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## kingrollo (3 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> I'm starting to think that covid won't turn out to be the prime example that's saves the NHS. But be the one thing that will achieve what governments have tried for years. Mark a turning point in the minds of the public that it's time for it go. Why ? because the amount of media and an ever growing public openly happy to question why and demand services back. National Covid Service is now common place some comments are now getting point that i'd be happy if Mrs 73 and other's just walked away. Be careful people once enough stop valuing things they do go. Once they do they don't came back and very often the grass is not greener on the other side.



Well if we survive for 12 months - without elective appointment and elective surgery - you can guess what Boris and mates will be thinking.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (3 Nov 2020)

The strange times in which we live



View: https://twitter.com/iamCiaraKing/status/1323211194052857856


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## tom73 (3 Nov 2020)

Still think this is less deadly than Influenza ? 
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ive-year-averages-for-influenza-and-pneumonia

It's not just 2020 either 
“More than three times as many deaths were recorded between January and August this year where COVID-19 was the underlying cause compared to influenza and pneumonia." 
“The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average." 
“Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death records began, the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in the first eight months of every year have been lower than the number of COVID-19 deaths seen, so far, in 2020.” 
Sarah Caul, Head of Mortality Analysis.


----------



## MarkF (3 Nov 2020)

Why would you include any Covid deaths from people already in a hospice?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...2020#deaths-registered-by-place-of-occurrence

I saw the scaremongering duo today, they cannot tell us what the testing false + rate is, just think about that......they don't know or they won't say, either is scandalous.

Always impressed with the NHS when "big stuff" happens, it's always spot on. So when I see ICU opened up as 100% normal as opposed to 50% reserved for covid patients and then a mothballed much smaller area opened up to cope with them it's gives me optimism. They are risk averse so they know....considering ICU was complete bedlam in spring.

Totally different patients (generally) have been coming in compared to spring, a lot younger, more robust. An "average" admission in spring would be immobile, stuggling to breathe, I'd be worried for them. Now, not so, you'd be unlikely to think that they were ill. They've been getting fewer too which tallies in with the below.

Best news is that over 60's admissions are levelling off and discharges are going to overtake admissions. I believe autumn will have zero impact on excess deaths. Cases, admissions and deaths all falling, not just in the UK, but all over Europe, same patterns too. We have a serious testing problem and no need for any lockdown, nor is their any point to one.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Nov 2020)

A warning from France for Covid sceptics. 

Not that they'll heed it.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Nov 2020)

And from Switzerland

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/societ...ough-to-fight-the-second-covid-wave-/46135900


----------



## classic33 (3 Nov 2020)

Bradford Royal Infirmary
Suspends some non-urgent surgery and outpatient appointments - following a rapid increase in Covid patients similar to the peak of the pandemic.

https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co...eries-due-sudden-spike-covid-patients-3009605


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## classic33 (3 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> *Why would you include any Covid deaths from people already in a hospice?*
> 
> https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...2020#deaths-registered-by-place-of-occurrence
> 
> ...


What do you suggest is recorded as cause of death. Regardless of location?


----------



## kingrollo (3 Nov 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> It's embarrassing to watch isn't it, he's called out and several times daily, yet he still keeps guffing out all these half-truths and misunderstandings which he chooses carefully to back up his belief that this is somehow all bollocks. No shame whatsoever. Just to remind, if it's needed, this is a cocking hospital porter, disagreeing with Professors and Doctors. If I was called out once on a lie like the ones he peddles I'd have my tail between my legs for about 2 weeks. Some people just have brass balls and a brass brain to go with it.



The thing is - no one has got this right - there is loads the experts don't know - theirs no shame in getting this wrong, but its like a 9 month crusade to prove he was right in February. why ?? . 
There are some incredible people working in medicine - but the nature of the profession is that at times you are working on probabilities. I'm not 100% convinced we have a handle on how this thing is being transmitted - but I wouldn't suggest the people who study it are not giving us there best decisions, there not lying, there not idiots, it just all new and its not easy.


----------



## Unkraut (3 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> Cases, admissions and deaths all falling, not just in the UK, but all over Europe,


That's not true here. There is an expectation that ICU admissions are bound to increase over the next 10 days or so, reflecting the infection rate before the 'lockdown lite' measures, but if the infection rate goes down from now on the system will not be overwhelmed. The R rate over the last 7 days (I believe) has gone below 1, but there is absolutely no reason to be complacent. But at least that was a bit of good news.


----------



## tom73 (3 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> Why would you include any Covid deaths from people already in a hospice?


Why not ?
Clearly never worked in a Hospice not every one who go's in never come out many are admitted for symptom control and leave to enjoy life. Some for years with help from highly trained and dedicated Hospice staff. For many a hospice is not a place to die but to live. So if someone go's in for example pain control and becomes infected by covid or unknown to them arrives with it. If then a doctor belives and users professional judgment that covid was a factor in that death. They should and will recored it formal on a death certificate. You don't lose the right to be treated the same once you go in to a hospice your still a person and still valuable to society. If you think care homes got forgotten about it's nothing to what hospices had to deal with. They got left , forgotten probably because of thinking like yours.


----------



## cookiemonster (4 Nov 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Mass testing for the city of Liverpool.
> https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/everyone-liverpool-tested-covid-19-19210041



Just an observation. The mass testing in Liverpool will test 500,000 people. Here in Hong Kong, 1.73 million were tested in 2 weeks, with everyone getting their results back in 3-5 days. Not a single glitch.


----------



## marinyork (4 Nov 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Just an observation. The mass testing in Liverpool will test 500,000 people. Here in Hong Kong, 1.73 million were tested in 2 weeks, with everyone getting their results back in 3-5 days. Not a single glitch.



The UK has a track record of being very cautious on new testing technologies vs others throughout this pandemic.

Mass testing will come for more, but I feel based on past record and endless trials that it'll be the end of winter rather than the start of winter Boris et al. were promising even not so long ago.

It gets eaten up very quickly if you have a list of people to do a bung to, which has happened multiple times. When people look back in ten years there are likely to be those who never had a test and none the wider whether they ever had it.


----------



## tom73 (4 Nov 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Just an observation. The mass testing in Liverpool will test 500,000 people. Here in Hong Kong, 1.73 million were tested in 2 weeks, with everyone getting their results back in 3-5 days. Not a single glitch.



All we do is chase the numbers with little idea how to use the data or too few public health staff to act on it quick enough. With one next big thing after another. The "a game changer" moments have come and gone. Back in June mass testing was coming within weeks for all NHS staff that's yet to happen. 

@marinyork is right or past record and trials that never end it's only a matter of time before something come's. It's just clearing the blocks along the way that's our biggest issue. Most are though endless government interference and outsourcing to the next mate on the list. With no come back when you screw up.Or because Government got fixated on one they bought test's that everyone pointed out don't work.
It's come to something that if you go or work at a private school you can have a test done without an issue. But try to get a publicly funded one you can go and jump.

Even on things we look to be doing well at like a vaccine we have the government lead / mate openly giving away sensitive information. To a mass audience.


----------



## tom73 (4 Nov 2020)

Data insight papers available on what happened in Australia. A lot to get though but shows covid effect across a wide range primary care services in detail inc pharmacy. It's summary starts with a clear message "The greatest single factor in responding to any crisis is the availability of high quality up to date information." We've yet to learn that never mind the rest. 
https://polargp.org.au/primary-health-networks/covid-19-data-insight-papers/


----------



## tom73 (4 Nov 2020)

Last minute change new guidance for extremely vulnerable now told to only work from home once in lockdown. 
Some groups now add to the list
People with stage-five chronic kidney disease, those undergoing dialysis and adults with Down's syndrome 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ng-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19


----------



## fossyant (4 Nov 2020)

999 nearly 1000 pages


----------



## fossyant (4 Nov 2020)

nearly


----------



## fossyant (4 Nov 2020)

nearly


----------



## fossyant (4 Nov 2020)

still not there


----------



## Edwardoka (4 Nov 2020)

fossyant said:


> 999 nearly 1000 pages


How many of those are blatant untruths, how many are misinformation, and how many of them are sensible analysis?


----------



## fossyant (4 Nov 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> How many of those are blatant untruths, how many are misinformation, and how many of them are sensible analysis?


Probably 999 pages of it - i.e misinformation


----------



## fossyant (4 Nov 2020)

Still not there


----------



## PK99 (4 Nov 2020)

SOON


----------



## glasgowcyclist (4 Nov 2020)

I bet you still get excited at seeing the odometer in your car clock up a round 10,000 miles, right?


----------



## classic33 (4 Nov 2020)

fossyant said:


> 999 nearly 1000 pages


Your next one should do it


----------



## fossyant (4 Nov 2020)

Bing bong


----------



## fossyant (4 Nov 2020)

Nope


----------



## fossyant (4 Nov 2020)

Darn it


----------



## classic33 (4 Nov 2020)

fossyant said:


> Darn it


No holes?


----------



## Edwardoka (4 Nov 2020)

This page left intentionally blank


----------



## Rusty Nails (4 Nov 2020)

Was I right, or was I right?

Missed one!


----------



## fossyant (4 Nov 2020)

We have a winner @Edwardoka 

You get a free Covid test.😊


----------



## tom73 (4 Nov 2020)

fossyant said:


> We have a winner @Edwardoka
> 
> You get a free Covid test.😊


Then sick it on the bay as "a rare example, highly collectable" you'd make a mint


----------



## rockyroller (5 Nov 2020)

the ironies of covic are never ending. finally got tested. it came back negative, with a note saying this doesn't necessarily mean I don't have it


----------



## tom73 (5 Nov 2020)

Lockdown will automatically expire say's Boris. 
So Boris what if .....


----------



## rockyroller (5 Nov 2020)

I think the 2nd round from the 1918 H1N1 pandemic was deadlier than the 1st


----------



## mjr (5 Nov 2020)

Bradford Royal Infirmary on BBC News now. More covid patients than seen in first wave, it says.


----------



## tom73 (5 Nov 2020)

Breaking news , remember though it’s an important step but long way to go yet. Looks like government may have got something right. More to follow tomorrow 

View: https://twitter.com/BMA_GP/status/1324423640079892482?s=20


----------



## marinyork (5 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> Breaking news , remember though it’s an important step but long way to go yet. Looks like government may have got something right. More to follow tomorrow
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/BMA_GP/status/1324423640079892482?s=20




I bet GP practice staff are going to be thrilled by timewasters ringing up in November asking about a vaccine.

Kate Bingham been at it today. 4 million doses made by Christmas. That's ramping up the expectations.


----------



## tom73 (5 Nov 2020)

marinyork said:


> I bet GP practice staff are going to be thrilled by timewasters ringing up in November asking about a vaccine.
> 
> Kate Bingham been at it today. 4 million doses made by Christmas. That's ramping up the expectations.


You bet they will and once the daily mail get hold of it be total melt down.
4 million , she been looking down the back of that magic sofa Boris users?


----------



## classic33 (5 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> You bet they will and once the daily mail get hold of it be total melt down.
> 4 million , she been looking down the back of that magic sofa Boris users?


There's some doctors in the private sector saying it'd be available this month.


----------



## tom73 (5 Nov 2020)

@marinyork one of the front runners I understand has to be kept at -74. How that will work in primary care setting. Will need some thinking out never mind the transport. They gloss over them bits don’t think Boris has a mate in frozen food.


----------



## classic33 (5 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> @marinyork one of the front runners I understand has to be kept at -74. How that will work in primary care setting. Will need some thinking out never mind the transport. They gloss over them bits don’t think Boris has a mate in frozen food.


How they planning on giving it at that temperature?
.
Edited to add, 
The next post on here, will be the 15,000th.


----------



## randynewmanscat (5 Nov 2020)

I've just found out that none of you are allowed to leave England unless it is for work or education.
Hows that going to work and who is going to enforce it? 
At the ferry terminal. "I'm off to do the electrics on my mates gaff in Malaga, what of it"?
"Have you got a copy of your contract or invoices sir"?
"Do what mate"? 
They don't trust you to go directly home and isolate on your return do they?
How things have changed since the summer when they were ginning people up to hit the pubs.


----------



## Jenkins (5 Nov 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> I've just found out that none of you are allowed to leave England unless it is for work or education.
> Hows that going to work and who is going to enforce it?
> At the ferry terminal. "I'm off to do the electrics on my mates gaff in Malaga, what of it"?
> "Have you got a copy of your contract or invoices sir"?
> ...


Actually, it is possible to leave England, but only under limited circumstances

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54823490


----------



## randynewmanscat (5 Nov 2020)

Jenkins said:


> Actually, it is possible to leave England, but only under limited circumstances
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54823490


Still they don't trust the people. After encouraging the populace to circulate and declare Super Saturday they are now fumbling for the stable door. 
Its not so different here, summer came and Macron declared holiday time, November and Paris is a ghost town after 8. I'm still allowed to leave the country though and without a reason.


----------



## tom73 (6 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> How they planning on giving it at that temperature?
> .
> Edited to add,
> The next post on here, will be the 15,000th.


Normal things like that the MHRA would only approve it for Hospital use only. The new regs for this vaccine look to get round that.
It's likely that it can be used at higher temperature but not let unused for too long above it. A number of drugs already have to be kept in fridge. Flu vaccine for example can only last so long out of the fridge.


----------



## mjr (6 Nov 2020)

Ireland reportedly aiming for R=0.5 before lifting restrictions. https://www.thejournal.ie/two-weeks...a-shows-weve-turned-a-corner-5253565-Nov2020/

Also an interesting ECDC summary graph:






Germany as a lone holdout on the mainland, surrounded by floods of cases.


----------



## matticus (6 Nov 2020)

randynewmanscat said:


> They don't trust you to go directly home and isolate on your return do they?


yes they do (I find it bizarre that they don't even do random checks)



> How things have changed since the summer when they were ginning people up to hit the pubs.


It goes up, down, then up again. Hence the word "wave", I guess!


----------



## Dave Davenport (6 Nov 2020)

I see M&S are taking the (St.) Michael by keeping their entire stores open, even though the 'food hall' parts could easily be separated, doesn't seem very fair on the retailers that have had to shut in the run up to Christmas, similar with the likes of Asda selling clothes & electricals etc. and garden centres that are more like department stores.


----------



## vickster (6 Nov 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> I see M&S are taking the (St.) Michael by keeping their entire stores open, even though the 'food hall' parts could easily be separated, doesn't seem very fair on the retailers that have had to shut in the run up to Christmas, similar with the likes of Asda selling clothes & electricals etc. and garden centres that are more like department stores.


Shops are allowed to be open for Click & Collect, so presumably they'll have minimum non-food staff on the shop floor. The rest furloughed?
There's nothing much that is fair about Covid unfortunately


----------



## tom73 (6 Nov 2020)

Dave Davenport said:


> I see M&S are taking the (St.) Michael by keeping their entire stores open, even though the 'food hall' parts could easily be separated, doesn't seem very fair on the retailers that have had to shut in the run up to Christmas, similar with the likes of Asda selling clothes & electricals etc. and garden centres that are more like department stores.



Unless they are part of a separate sales floor that is.
Yes it's not very fair I agree but it's worth remembering for some they don't have access to much in way to of other shops anyway or can afford to shop at independent shops. Some don't have access to the internet either so supermarkets are often the only place they can get affordable none food items. You can still support local independent shops they are unlike last time allowed to open for click and collect.


----------



## oldwheels (6 Nov 2020)

Jenkins said:


> Actually, it is possible to leave England, but only under limited circumstances
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54823490


It is obviously possible because some from high number areas are arriving here on Mull as we are level 2 and they think it is ok to do this. Travelling to work on his estate in one case. Aye right.


----------



## Jenkins (6 Nov 2020)

oldwheels said:


> It is obviously possible because some from high number areas are arriving here on Mull as we are level 2 and they think it is ok to do this. Travelling to work on his estate in one case. Aye right.


If you read the link, this reason for this permitted travel is one way only - you won't be coming back unless it's in the overhead locker or cargo hold!


----------



## oldwheels (6 Nov 2020)

Jenkins said:


> If you read the link, this reason for this permitted travel is one way only - you won't be coming back unless it's in the overhead locker or cargo hold!


Sorry did not read the link but I presume this is overseas travel. They are still driving without hindrance it would seem within UK.


----------



## DaveReading (6 Nov 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Sorry did not read the link but I presume this is overseas travel. They are still driving without hindrance it would seem within UK.



Did anyone ever believe it would be otherwise?

While the law is clear - in England you are not allowed to travel to elsewhere in the UK, unless for work, education or other legally permitted reasons - don't hold your breath for police checkpoints at the Severn Bridge and Carter Bar.


----------



## MrGrumpy (6 Nov 2020)

That’s part of the issue , but if the government took a hard stance on restrictions and checkpoints popped up all over folk would be rioting  .


----------



## oldwheels (6 Nov 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> That’s part of the issue , but if the government took a hard stance on restrictions and checkpoints popped up all over folk would be rioting  .


Where I live more likely to be dancing in the street. On line at least. Cannot estimate numbers as I do not have enough info but many people are very angry at people coming here from high risk areas ie pretty much anywhere in England or central Scotland tho' there don't seem to be any I have heard about from Scotland.


----------



## Edwardoka (6 Nov 2020)

oldwheels said:


> Where I live more likely to be dancing in the street. On line at least. Cannot estimate numbers as I do not have enough info but many people are very angry at people coming here from high risk areas ie pretty much anywhere in England or central Scotland tho' there don't seem to be any I have heard about from Scotland.


It rips my kniting. I've been desperate to go to Arran for most of this year but refused - the idea of being the guy to unwittingly infect a remote community that is a long helicopter trip away from the nearest acute respiratory failure bed goes completely against who I am.

Meanwhile, others just act seemingly without a moment's pause. When there was talk about checkpointing the border between Scotland and England it was being painted as insular Scots xenophobia instead of it being a sensible approach to lessen the spread across a steep infection gradient.


----------



## mjr (6 Nov 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> That’s part of the issue , but if the government took a hard stance on restrictions and checkpoints popped up all over folk would be rioting  .


It doesn't happen in other countries. Is the UK really more full of idiots?


----------



## Edwardoka (6 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> It doesn't happen in other countries. Is the UK really more full of idiots?


*peers through the mists of time at the last 5 years*
Yes.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (7 Nov 2020)

Today, the NHS is treating that vaccines are safe


----------



## DaveReading (7 Nov 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Today, the NHS is treating that vaccines are safe



Translation ?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (7 Nov 2020)

DaveReading said:


> Translation ?



I am sure you can work out the auto correct !


----------



## matticus (7 Nov 2020)

Sofas? :-\


----------



## DaveReading (7 Nov 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I am sure you can work out the auto correct !



Fine, I'm sure somebody will be along soon to explain, post a link, or whatever.


----------



## tom73 (11 Nov 2020)

And so it continues so much for the PPE stock pile. 
https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/frontline-doctors-nurses-given-repurposed-bin-bags-as-official-ppe/


----------



## mjr (11 Nov 2020)

Hungary locks down again and unusually, this one is stricter than the first: 90 days, closure of schools, unis, restaurants, theatres and cinemas, gatherings forbidden, 8pm-5am curfew and declaration of a state of emergency. https://hungarytoday.hu/coronavirus-hungary-restrictions-wednesday-details/


----------



## Edwardoka (11 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> Hungary locks down again and unusually, this one is stricter than the first: 90 days, closure of schools, unis, restaurants, theatres and cinemas, gatherings forbidden, 8pm-5am curfew and declaration of a state of emergency.


While the numbers are going sharply up and places are going back into full lockdown, on the plus side there does also appear to be a marked decline in the number of people saying "there isn't going to be a second wave".

I daresay these will return in a few months and say "there isn't going to be a third wave" while linking to blog posts with titles like SkepticsGuideToTheCovidTruth written by esteemed doctors (whose doctor status evaporates if you spend 10 seconds looking at their linkedin profile)


----------



## Dave Davenport (11 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> Hungary locks down again and unusually, this one is stricter than the first: 90 days, closure of schools, unis, restaurants, theatres and cinemas, gatherings forbidden, 8pm-5am curfew and declaration of a state of emergency. https://hungarytoday.hu/coronavirus-hungary-restrictions-wednesday-details/


That's just the Hungarian government practicing for any civil unrest when they transition to a fascist dictatorship.


----------



## Beebo (12 Nov 2020)

50,000 deaths and counting.
It was another 595 yesterday.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 Nov 2020)

They do testing differently in Milton Keynes


----------



## mjr (12 Nov 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> They do testing differently in Milton Keynes
> 
> View attachment 557767


That's not even a good fake.


----------



## mjr (12 Nov 2020)

Worries are raised by Pfizer CEO cashing in on the latest vaccine announcement, rather than waiting for approval or deployment: https://text.npr.org/933957580


----------



## mjr (12 Nov 2020)

US CDC changes mask advice to reflect growing evidence that they help wearers as well as others: https://text.npr.org/933903848


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Nov 2020)

Moderna have hit the event rate for their first interim readout.

No clear timeline for results, but I would guess days rather than weeks given the urgency

My understanding is that Moderna have very similar technology to Pfizer. The AstraZeneca one, also expected soon, is different.

https://investors.modernatx.com/new...-completed-case-accrual-first-planned-interim


----------



## kingrollo (12 Nov 2020)

33,000 UK new cases today. 

"There's no 2nd wave"


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> 33,000 UK new cases today



shoot!

Must be some reporting glitch for such a big change, surely.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (12 Nov 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> They do testing differently in Milton Keynes
> 
> View attachment 557767



Thats how the vaccine will be deployed.


----------



## kingrollo (13 Nov 2020)

Not scientific but here in the west mids - I currently know quite a few close friends currently have covid. - seems more widespread than the first wave.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (14 Nov 2020)

Just like the Giro, the Strictly “bubble” is starting to look distinctly shaky. The Giro, 3 weeks duration, just about got away with it. Not sure that Strictly is going to be so lucky.


----------



## mjr (14 Nov 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Just like the Giro, the Strictly “bubble” is starting to look distinctly shaky. The Giro, 3 weeks duration, just about got away with it. Not sure that Strictly is going to be so lucky.


Luck or care? The Vuelta with its "TdF++" restrictions got a bubble of nearly 700 through almost unscathed. So it can be done with smart measures (contactless sign-in, masks and barriers to keep distances at interviews, ...) and discipline!


----------



## mjr (14 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not scientific but here in the west mids - I currently know quite a few close friends currently have covid. - seems more widespread than the first wave.


Yes, same in East Anglia. R is now 1.2ish here (the UK figure is flattered by everywhere else having locked down before England) and we're only a week and a bit into this lockdown so even if it has worked and R goes below 1 soon, there will be almost another week of increasing hospitalisations and another of increasing deaths. If, as some fear, the vaccine news made people "demob-happy" and lower their guard for a few days, then it will take longer than that.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (14 Nov 2020)

On local FB page. Followed by 60 almost entirely positive comments. 

We're so farked.

_Breaking news! Tesco Handforth Dean ...... upstairs has re-opened_ 

Morons.


----------



## matticus (14 Nov 2020)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Just like the Giro, the Strictly “bubble” is starting to look distinctly shaky. The Giro, 3 weeks duration, just about got away with it. Not sure that Strictly is going to be so lucky.


I *think* I'm right in saying that the Grand Tours attempted true bubbles i.e. the whole race circus tried to stay isolated from civilians. The riders only raced, then hung out with their team.

Whereas the BBC use the more general term - so half the group can have a life outside of Strictly 


Spoiler: bbc bubble



We are using two approaches to bring our 12 Strictly couples together.

The first is the creation of Bubbles. Each couple has formed a support bubble. Meaning, one half of the bubble is a single adult household living alone, while the other half may remain with their household. This means they are permitted to have close contact with one another. The bubbles are exclusive and the couples are not able to form other bubbles with anyone else whilst they are in the competition. Each couple will follow Government guidelines on social distancing with anyone who is not in their household or support bubble. They were all tested twice before forming their bubbles.


Given the huge numbers in the Vuelta bubble, it's fair to say they did a very good job compared to "Strictly"


----------



## pawl (14 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Not scientific but here in the west mids - I currently know quite a few close friends currently have covid. - seems more widespread than the first wave.





Odd ite the same here we didn’t here of anyone acquaintances etc ,this time round I’m hearing about relatives of friends
local people who have contracted the virus .Starting to get a bit closer to home.


----------



## Blue Hills (15 Nov 2020)

Some good news here/signs of light at the end of the hell tunnel.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54949799

apologies if already posted.


----------



## mjr (15 Nov 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Some good news here/signs of light at the end of the hell tunnel.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54949799
> 
> apologies if already posted.


Not really a full summary of the optimistic interview IMO but you could see for yourself in a bit under 2h in the repeat on BBC Parliament
The Andrew Marr Show
Sun, 15.11.2020 / 19:00 - 20:00 ( 60 min )


----------



## mjr (16 Nov 2020)

US study https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3 suggests that restaurants are the peak spreader there, while https://www.rtbf.be/info/societe/de...les-de-contamination-selon-l-aviq?id=10608993 claims it is families, schools and friends who are the main spreaders in Belgium.

Anyone know what's currently believed to be spreading it in the UK?


----------



## MrGrumpy (16 Nov 2020)

Schools, households, pubs take your pick !!! Up here schools seem to be the target , as most pubs are now shut!
As for households, if I was tell you the son of colleague of mine ran his grandfather to get a test done as he had symptoms. Came back positive, son didn’t isolate until a day later.
Meanwhile said colleague came into work for his weekend shift , only to tell me today his son now had symptoms and was awaiting results !
Flippen great !! Colleague sent home and told to get to f.... and isolate like he was supposed to !! That there is the issue !!! This same colleague mouthing off about Covid cases at work as well last month !! Could not make this sh...t up


----------



## classic33 (16 Nov 2020)

People not following very simple instructions on isolation, and meeting in groups larger than those permitted.


----------



## classic33 (16 Nov 2020)

Why is a wine bar allowed to remain open whilst pubs have had to shut.

Nearest pub, closed, is 50 yards away from the wine bar, open.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> Why is a wine bar allowed to remain open whilst pubs have had to shut.
> 
> Nearest pub, closed, is 50 yards away from the wine bar, open.



Wine bar is breaking law. Report them.


----------



## classic33 (16 Nov 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> Wine bar is breaking law. Report them.


Police aware it's still open.


----------



## Julia9054 (17 Nov 2020)

Currently going through my school and every other school I know like a dose of salts.
I'm resigned to the fact that for me it's when rather than if.
To add - my school's response is excellent. We should probably be running test and trace!


----------



## PaulSB (17 Nov 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Schools, households, pubs take your pick !!! Up here schools seem to be the target , as most pubs are now shut!
> As for households, if I was tell you the son of colleague of mine ran his grandfather to get a test done as he had symptoms. Came back positive, son didn’t isolate until a day later.
> Meanwhile said colleague came into work for his weekend shift , only to tell me today his son now had symptoms and was awaiting results !
> Flippen great !! Colleague sent home and told to get to f.... and isolate like he was supposed to !! That there is the issue !!! This same colleague mouthing off about Covid cases at work as well last month !! Could not make this sh...t up


A young man who lives next door but one has been isolating along with his partner and 10 month old child.

At work his boss had symptoms, went for a test and returned to work until he received a positive result. Our neighbour immediately said he was going to isolate, the company's response was "if you don't work we won't pay you." Our neighbour asked his union for help and ended up with statutory sick pay.

I know someone who is holding a 60th birthday party in the very near future and has invited the entire family, the majority are planning to go.

I know another person who lives alone, a retired medical professional, who changes her support bubble depending on which grandchildren she wants to see!!

Is it any wonder this virus continues to spread? A large proportion of the population are too stupid and selfish to understand the impact of their individual actions.


----------



## Edwardoka (17 Nov 2020)

Complacency, arrogance and selfishness. Very few people are abiding by the spirit of the lockdown rules and instead choosing to interpret them however suits them.

Add to that the number of people who have gotten away without being infected yet think that it can't happen to them, despite the numbers of infections rising sharply. Almost 1% of the population in my local area tested positive IN THE LAST WEEK.

There are increasing reports of cases where people are being told they will be penalised/fired if they test positive and go into self-isolation.
And then you have things like this:

https://www.theguardian.com/educati...gland-being-told-to-pause-covid-app-in-school

We are screwed.


----------



## PaulSB (17 Nov 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Complacency, arrogance and selfishness. *Very few people are abiding by the spirit of the lockdown rules and instead choosing to interpret them however suits them.*
> 
> Add to that the number of people who have gotten away without being infected yet think that it can't happen to them, despite the numbers of infections rising sharply. Almost 1% of the population in my local area tested positive IN THE LAST WEEK.
> 
> ...



This is what totally pisses me off. Myself, family and many, many friends are following the rules, guidelines etc. We are taking significant steps to protect ourselves. I haven't seen my first grandchild. The only thing left in my life which was part of my normal pre-covid activity is cycling. Even with this along with my regular buddies we have a rota so everyone gets to ride with +1 in turn. We take flasks, sandwiches and find a bench to sit on. It is fun but very different.

Locally we have 1+% of the population infected. As @kingrollo and @pawl reported we know of many people who have been ill, are isolating or tested positive. Hell the neighbour I mentioned earlier had to get a 10 month old tested.

I've stopped going in to town for anything other than the supermarket and currently we try to avoid this by eating our way through the freezer contents. I'm not so much worried about Covid-19 but Long Covid. At 66 the thought of the rest of my life being screwed is terrifying.

Yet we have these arrogant individuals who believe they're invincible, and I'd include all the whining landlords, restauranteurs etc, who are propagating and increasing the problem.


----------



## All uphill (17 Nov 2020)

PaulSB said:


> This is what totally pisses me off. Myself, family and many, many friends are following the rules, guidelines etc. We are taking significant steps to protect ourselves. I haven't seen my first grandchild. The only thing left in my life which was part of my normal pre-covid activity is cycling. Even with this along with my regular buddies we have a rota so everyone gets to ride with +1 in turn. We take flasks, sandwiches and find a bench to sit on. It is fun but very different.
> 
> Locally we have 1+% of the population infected. As @kingrollo and @pawl reported we know of many people who have been ill, are isolating or tested positive. Hell the neighbour I mentioned earlier had to get a 10 month old tested.
> 
> ...


I've given your post a like because of the reference to long covid. This is still not something that's widely acknowledged in my experience. An acquaintance recently was tested positive, had few symptoms and is now telling people it's nothing to be afraid of!

Long covid is very nasty.


----------



## alicat (17 Nov 2020)

Woman opposite has got the cleaners round.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (17 Nov 2020)

alicat said:


> Woman opposite has got the cleaners round.



Work is allowed under current restrictions?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (17 Nov 2020)

Step-son's symptoms cleared up and he doesn't think it was Covid. But in the two weeks he's been off work, there have been 3 deaths in the care home and 1 still in ICU. One of the staff (aged 20) was also hospitalised for a week.


----------



## mjr (17 Nov 2020)

Nearby pub advertising that they will do an Eat Out To Help Out offer once lockdown lifted. Has anyone got links that explain whether that is a good or bad idea?


----------



## classic33 (17 Nov 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Step-son's symptoms cleared up and he doesn't think it was Covid. But in the two weeks he's been off work, there have been 3 deaths in the care home and 1 still in ICU. One of the staff (aged 20) was also hospitalised for a week.


Good to hear he's cleared up, here's hoping it's permanent.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (17 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> Nearby pub advertising that they will do an Eat Out To Help Out offer once lockdown lifted. Has anyone got links that explain whether that is a good or bad idea?


Maybe show them this -







A restaurant I've visited a few times in Spain. They gave out free food to any who needed it, recognising that Covid has caused hardship for many in the community they are part of. People queued along the street to be given food parcels - "no questions asked, without prejudice".

If restaurants here did this, they might find themselves quite popular after this is all over.


----------



## alicat (17 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Work is allowed under current restrictions?



Perhaps, but has the virus been told?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (17 Nov 2020)

alicat said:


> Perhaps, but has the virus been told?



I don't think you can expect people to stop doing things which are clearly within the current rules?

There's risk with everything; cleaning a house should be very low risk (very easy to distance, very low numbers of potential exposures, mask wearing easy to implement) ?

Attending the House of Commons, just for instance, would seem far, far higher risk, and that's still continuing.


----------



## kingrollo (18 Nov 2020)

I think I must be the only one who would forgoe Christmas - for a vaccine in spring and a normal summer ?


----------



## pawl (18 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think I must be the only one who would forgoe Christmas - for a vaccine in spring and a normal summer ?




I’m with you on that one.


----------



## mjr (18 Nov 2020)

BBC today with more crony PPE contract headlines, ahead of Audit Office (I think) report publication. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54975507
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54974373
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53672841
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54978460

Dido told to quarantine by the app. Anyone want to bet she was in another room near an app user who tested positive? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54985232


----------



## kingrollo (18 Nov 2020)

pawl said:


> I’m with you on that one.


I mean like how many times have you felt a bit rough over Christmas - but got your shoot together and gone to MIL for boxing Day lunch etc, etc,


----------



## mjr (18 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I mean like how many times have you felt a bit rough over Christmas - but got your shoot together and gone to MIL for boxing Day lunch etc, etc,


Shoots will probably still be allowed to get together, knowing this Etonian government


----------



## mjr (18 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> BBC today with more crony PPE contract headlines, ahead of Audit Office (I think) report publication.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54975507
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54974373
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53672841
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54978460


Continuing the farce, Boris has now declared that he is "proud" that his government were overcharged like this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54988822


----------



## tom73 (19 Nov 2020)

Seeing a lot more cases in lot worse state been on mostly all out support last week or so. 
No sooner I get in Mrs 73 is out the door she was over ran with cases last time now we both are .
Why can't the government just grow a pair and be clear the idea of a 5 day max 10 people Christmas idea is pie in the sky.
On the same day the BMA spell it out what real risk we are in coming out of lock down with no plan. We got this "idea" leaking out
Christmas day is what ever day people want it be expecting everyone to play by the rules before and after so Boris can save Christmas. 
Just won't happen it's not happening now we blow it big time last lockdown and we are going to do it all over again. 
The idea the "vaccine lone ranger" will ride into town and save us in a matter of weeks or by spring is not helping either.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> Police aware it's still open.



Then maybe local paper will be interested


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## bitsandbobs (19 Nov 2020)

MarkF said:


> Now we have the Danish mask fiasco where they cannot get a medical journal to publish their findings, so we can safely surmise that they have arrived at a negative conclusion. However, I am happy to believe that there may be a concurrent study with a positive conclusion. The censorship is wrong.



Now published. Limited evidence of protection to wearer. The study did not look at whether masks prevented those infected with Covid19 from infecting other people. 

Some limitations to the study: low compliance and low level of Covid19. 

Last word to the lead author: _“Even a small degree of protection is worth using the face masks,” says Dr. Henning Bundgaard, professor of Cardiology at Rigshospitalet in Denmark and lead author of the study, “because you are protecting yourself against a potentially life-threatening disease." _

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817


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## tom73 (19 Nov 2020)

It was not published by a medical journal because it lacks a few key things to make it credible. 
Any new starter uni student can find issues with it never mind a journal. 
DANMASK19 was an unblinded RCT of surgical mask wearing to test if they protect the wearer, did not look at source control, Which is the whole point of mass face covering wearing. led from a Copenhagen hospital and recruiting ~6000 people via media ads.
No involvement of a clinical trials unit
No data monitoring group
No reference to CONSORT criteria
No formal ethics approval. 
It ran for 30 days which is too short given the incubation period maybe up to 14 days. So some may test positive after study ended. 
Covid was also running at low numbers at the time of the study. 
It doesn't even look like a risk assessment was carried out the volunteers either. 
it's not a credible study it's not censorship it's the job of credible journals to reject articles if they don't meet even minimum standards. 
Any new student can find issues with it never mind a journal.


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## raleighnut (19 Nov 2020)

pawl said:


> I’m with you on that one.


Me too.


----------



## Wobblers (19 Nov 2020)

bitsandbobs said:


> Now published. Limited evidence of protection to wearer. The study did not look at whether masks prevented those infected with Covid19 from infecting other people.
> 
> Some limitations to the study: low compliance and low level of Covid19.
> 
> ...



Statistically speaking, this study shows that there was no difference between those wearing a mask and those not. In other words, mask wearing is ineffective in preventing infection. Except... the study followed people who wore masks outside of their homes. Given that it's believed that many - probably most - get infected in a domestic setting where masks aren't worn, this is a significant shortcoming. Furthermore, it's hypothesised that a mask will reduce the number of viruses the wearer is exposed to, which in turn is likely to result in milder illness - this effect was not looked at.

Interesting, but I don't think this study is particularly illuminating: we need larger studies where the environment of the participants (when they're both masked and unmasked) is controlled.


----------



## fossyant (19 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> I think I must be the only one who would forgoe Christmas - for a vaccine in spring and a normal summer ?



I'm with you on that too. 

Happy for a quiet Christmas, an don't want this proposal of five days of relaxing rules, for 25 days of tough rules.


----------



## bitsandbobs (19 Nov 2020)

McWobble said:


> Statistically speaking, this study shows that there was no difference between those wearing a mask and those not. In other words, mask wearing is ineffective in preventing infection. Except... the study followed people who wore masks outside of their homes. Given that it's believed that many - probably most - get infected in a domestic setting where masks aren't worn, this is a significant shortcoming. Furthermore, it's hypothesised that a mask will reduce the number of viruses the wearer is exposed to, which in turn is likely to result in milder illness - this effect was not looked at.
> 
> Interesting, but I don't think this study is particularly illuminating: we need larger studies where the environment of the participants (when they're both masked and unmasked) is controlled.



Agreed. I guess this is why the higher impact journals weren't especially excited by it.


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## PaulB (19 Nov 2020)

Apologies about posting this in the wrong forum previously - it was only for 'flu vaccines and this is about Covid vaccine - so I trust you will afford an elderly gentleman some leeway on this one! 

My wife heard yesterday that her department will take delivery of the first Covid vaccine commencing 1st December. She was instructed to get her nurses (she's the big boss) to do the vaccinations (general public in the medical centre to where they're directed, not hospital patients or care home residents) from 5th December and to work 12 hours a day seven days a week until they're all done. She wasn't going to take that lying down so she enquired about pay - there was no extra even mentioned. She fought that one and got her nurses pay commensurate with the hours and days they'll be working. But unlike the headline-grabbers, she worked out the logistics and says this is no magic wand; at its very best, there's no way we'll be seeing the first fruits of this until next March at least. 

Firstly, from vaccine arrival, they have five days to use what they've got or it will be rendered useless. It will arrive concentrated - not in measured vials - and they have to dilute it, from which time they'll have five hours to use it or it becomes useless. I naively asked if, once injected, the vaccinee (it is now) would get a sistificate...certfci....piece of paper showing their immune status. She laughed. The only paper the vaccinee (it's common parlance now!) would get would be to instruct them to come and get the follow-up injection. She predicts mayhem from then on. Firstly, she sees what's going on as she's got to pick up the pieces already (the indestructible who can't get infected - until they do or their mother dies of it), and knows that a percentage (which will be high given the area she covers) will believe they're immune. Then there will be those who didn't like the pain of the needle so won't come for the second part, or those who can't get there in time for the second one, rendering the first one completely useless. Kim Kardashian even after the second injection, they won't be declared immune until they have yet another needle (to take blood and test if they have built up sufficient immunity to be declared 'safe') before their journey is over. And that has to be done in sufficient numbers of people to have any beneficial effect. She's very skeptical and has been through this - albeit on a different scale - so many times, she can predict pretty much what's going to happen. Non-compliance, serious effects, public apathy. She's annoyed at the way the government are doing this and the way that the manufacturers have been given the freedom to declare their own product safe and 90-odd percent effective.


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## mjr (19 Nov 2020)

fossyant said:


> Happy for a quiet Christmas, an don't want this proposal of five days of relaxing rules, for 25 days of tough rules.


Meanwhile, Belgium is leaking the other way ahead of an announcement expected after a crisis committee meeting tomorrow: "We Don't Want A Christmas Wave" says PM De Croo, according to the news website headline brandished on TV.

Another similar-but-different news item there is that one of their leading campaigners for what I think is called "The Excluded" in the UK (I may be confused: it's people missing out on furlough or self-employment covid support grants due to start dates or whatever, being left to go broke) has suicided and it's been reported widely. Other businesses of The Excluded are putting white roses in their windows in memory, which is also demonstrating the scale of the problem to customers.


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## roubaixtuesday (19 Nov 2020)

The Christmas leaks are just more of the same from the govt. 

No consistency. No clear messages. Constant desire to talk up removing restrictions and reluctance to impose restrictions. Constant talk of how we need to compromise between economy and virus. 

It's really simple. 

Unless we suppress the virus, we will damage our economy more, restrict our freedom more and kill more people. 

So far:

"Eat out to help Covid"
"Stop skiving, save Pret, catch Covid"
"Tiers of a clown"

Now coming to a family near you:
"Granny for Christmas, crematorium for New Year"


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## Joey Shabadoo (19 Nov 2020)

Apparently the shops are mobbed today in Glasgow ahead of the shutdown tomorrow night - people getting their Xmas shopping in where they can. I had to go to B&Q this morning to get some repair sealant for my shed roof and it was very busy.


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## rockyroller (19 Nov 2020)

Massachusetts is building another field hospital, this one, in one of it's convention centers. Just spoke to one of our sales reps on the phone who said he has a crazy bad cough that he can't get rid of & his breathing didn't sound right to me, very labored. I told him to call 911 or drive himself to a hospital & call his wife. For those of us living in a bubble of health, my family included, it can all be turned upside down, or worse, in a minute.


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## tom73 (19 Nov 2020)

@PaulB interesting which vac brand are we talking about if you know? 
Clearly not enough Vials to go round. Mixing it in a clinical environment is bad enough but that will render it even more useless in community settings. Can't do that in care homes or in peoples homes mixing up enough for the start of a DN's list is a none starter. 
Even in your average GP surgery finding space to do the jabs, space for the 15 min post jab supervision both in line with social distancing. 
Now add in a room for jab prep and storage just how big do they think the ave GP surgery is ? 
Jab prep on top of PPE changes , pre jab checks and paper work together with reduced clinic capacity. They just wont be enough hours in the day to numbers though quick enough. 
No extra pay you do surprise me 
You're right about the fall out not counting the mass rush to get to the doc's once word get's out. It's plainly wrong the way this being reported both by the gov spin machine and mass media. It's not a magic bullet and they need to own up to it. Some real unrest will be building over this and the NHS will get both barrels.


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## Edwardoka (19 Nov 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Apparently the shops are mobbed today in Glasgow ahead of the shutdown tomorrow night - people getting their Xmas shopping in where they can. I had to go to B&Q this morning to get some repair sealant for my shed roof and it was very busy.


Yes, I heard the same about the local supermarket - heaving. Idiots.


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## tom73 (19 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The Christmas leaks are just more of the same from the govt.
> 
> No consistency. No clear messages. Constant desire to talk up removing restrictions and reluctance to impose restrictions. Constant talk of how we need to compromise between economy and virus.
> 
> ...



less at risk numbers is one way to help make the limited vaccine go round. The word is the house hold number will be big enough to meet up with them all. You won't have to pick which Granny you can get all the oldies in one go. Very kind of them. Funeral plans the next bog roll shortage ?


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## mjr (19 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The Christmas leaks are just more of the same from the govt.
> 
> No consistency. No clear messages. Constant desire to talk up removing restrictions and reluctance to impose restrictions. Constant talk of how we need to compromise between economy and virus.
> 
> ...


Yep: dither, delay and death seem to be Johnson's three key policies. Just what we don't need. Just what businesses don't need.

The Belgian "No Christmas Wave" leaking is coming from a country which started what UK would call a lockdown on 19 October and has peaked its second wave (hospitalisations peaked about 10 days ago, deaths peaked a week ago), whereas England locked down 2½ weeks later on 5 November and may have peaked its cases (absolute numbers have fallen but % of tests positive hasn't) but not hospitalisations or deaths.

I think Johnson is extremely foolish to be talking up a free-for-all at Christmas this far out. What kind of Christmas present would it be to give us loads of avoidable covid cases?


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## mjr (19 Nov 2020)

Edwardoka said:


> Yes, I heard the same about the local supermarket - heaving. Idiots.


What the fark? Does the coming Glasgow lockdown mean even supermarkets and home repair shops will be shut or are people being amazingly stupid?


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## PaulB (19 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> @PaulB interesting which vac brand are we talking about if you know?



That I don't know. I'll ask her when she gets home and come back to you on that. There's five such centres in East Lancashire where she's based, apparently. The logistics to do all that have to be sorted - consent room, pre-injection room, injection room etc.


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## Edwardoka (19 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> What the fark? Does the coming Glasgow lockdown mean even supermarkets and home repair shops will be shut or are people being amazingly stupid?


Non-vital shops, hair salons etc are to shut down. Supermarkets to remain open. Food outlets to remain open (takeaway only)

Covidiots. Covidiots everywhere.


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## roubaixtuesday (19 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> Funeral plans the next bog roll shortage ?



Well, makes it easier to buy prezzies - urns for the oldies


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## tom73 (19 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Well, makes it easier to buy prezzies - urns for the oldies


Having them round at Christmas saves on the wake too and they even get to enjoy it. With any luck they won't have time to write you out the will when you all fall out some boxing day.


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## tom73 (19 Nov 2020)

PaulB said:


> That I don't know. I'll ask her when she gets home and come back to you on that. There's five such centres in East Lancashire where she's based, apparently. The logistics to do all that have to be sorted - consent room, pre-injection room, injection room etc.


All the details that they like to gloss over which ever way you look at this in what ever setting you're based it's one big headache. 
With none of the high ups in firing line. The idea of letting unqualified/unsupervised staff near this now knowing it needs mixing is now even more a worry.


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## mjr (19 Nov 2020)

Now that pubs and most workplaces have been closed, supermarkets have hit the top of the covid charts. How much spread is due to drinkers buying their booze in supermarkets instead? https://www.itv.com/news/2020-11-19...-are-most-likely-to-be-exposed-to-coronavirus

Me? I'm still using farm shops, standalone butchers and minimarkets as much as possible. I'll cheerfully pay another few % to support locally-owned business and not to have some covidiot trying to stand in my back pocket at the checkout.


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## mjr (19 Nov 2020)

Interesting graphs from COBR. Not as many working from home as I thought, only just over a third. More mask-wearing than I thought but 1 in 9 still not washing their farking hands!






And a big drop in retail and recreation journeys since 5 Nov, but most other journey types continued at their crisis-modified levels, at least for Google's victims:


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## kingrollo (19 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> Seeing a lot more cases in lot worse state been on mostly all out support last week or so.
> No sooner I get in Mrs 73 is out the door she was over ran with cases last time now we both are .
> Why can't the government just grow a pair and be clear the idea of a 5 day max 10 people Christmas idea is pie in the sky.
> On the same day the BMA spell it out what real risk we are in coming out of lock down with no plan. We got this "idea" leaking out
> ...


I think the 5 days of Christmas will happen. If the govt can spend £500m encouraging us indoors in to crowded spaces when we have a virus that is most prolific in crowded indoor spaces - then pretty sure they will do the same over Christmas.


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## MrGrumpy (19 Nov 2020)

I don’t want it , mother is going to my sisters ( her bubble ) so I’m fine with that! Wtf would this be even suggested ? It’s only going to end badly


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## kingrollo (19 Nov 2020)

We should have a CC Christmas zoom meeting.


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## Rusty Nails (19 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We should have a CC Christmas zoom meeting.


I'm not hosting it!


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## PaulB (19 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> All the details that they like to gloss over which ever way you look at this in what ever setting you're based it's one big headache.
> With none of the high ups in firing line. The idea of letting unqualified/unsupervised staff near this now knowing it needs mixing is now even more a worry.


It's the Pfizer one. But they're all qualified. They still have to do their regular jobs and do the vaccinations as extra, that's why she needed to ensure they got paid because most of them volunteered as they wanted to contribute but of course, such dedication will be exploited, especially by these lepers currently 'in charge'.


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## tom73 (20 Nov 2020)

@PaulB Thanks for letting me know. 
How many arms do they think Nurses have I wonder they already spend most days trying to be an octopus. 
Let's hope they all stand up and get the right pay for all this. Someone is set to make a mint form this and it wont be the ones doing all the work. Many will be qualified which is as it should be but given the law change for this it's only a matter of time before unqualified staff are brought in as list of ones needing jabs outweighs number of qualified staff. 
Have to see if Mrs 73 has had any word on this not hold out though given they are still waiting for staff testing.


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## DRM (20 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> @PaulB Thanks for letting me know.
> How many arms do they think Nurses have I wonder they already spend most days trying to be an octopus.
> Let's hope they all stand up and get the right pay for all this. Someone is set to make a mint form this and it wont be the ones doing all the work. Many will be qualified which is as it should be but given the law change for this it's only a matter of time before unqualified staff are brought in as list of ones needing jabs outweighs number of qualified staff.
> Have to see if Mrs 73 has had any word on this not hold out though given they are still waiting for staff testing.


On this mornings BBC Breakfast news, they announced a pay freeze for public employees, so I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for NHS staff to be paid in line with the work put in since Covid-19 struck


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## midlife (20 Nov 2020)

I don't pay that much attention to what the government say about vaccines but one of the senior managers for a Trust I hold an honorary contract with has been told to be ready for the arrival of 800,000 doses imminently............


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## tom73 (21 Nov 2020)

midlife said:


> I don't pay that much attention to what the government say about vaccines but one of the senior managers for a Trust I hold an honorary contract with has been told to be ready for the arrival of 800,000 doses imminently............



That will be the ultra cold storage the goverment have just remembered the NHS has. The plan is use hospitals to store it and send in out at a local level that way. Sounds common sense it also gives them a get out for ones wasted due to storage issues. Even if the issues are not NHS ones quite handy all round really.


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## tom73 (21 Nov 2020)

The vaccine plan leaked by the HSJ is massive and a lot of work to pull off. It’s possible if and a big if the NHS is left to get on with it. Free of any political games and Serco and co are kept well away. The idea which the governing are not being open about is that at the same time as going all this the NHS can still provide all areas of primary care services. It simply can’t and they need to admit it. 
A lot of questions remain from the plan and still a lot to go wrong. One thing has gone wrong already side stepping areas of primary care Nursing is not a good start.


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## PaulB (21 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> The idea which the governing are not being open about is that at the same time as going all this the NHS can still provide all areas of primary care services. It simply can’t and they need to admit it.
> A lot of questions remain from the plan and still a lot to go wrong. One thing has gone wrong already side stepping areas of primary care Nursing is not a good start.



That's the big problem Super-Nurse is facing (she was promoted as from yesterday). Her nurses can't leave their normal jobs to get the vaccinations done, they have to do both, which is why she was adamant this was on a paid basis and not - as appeared to be expected from them - as a volunteer thing for which they'd get a half-hearted round of applause moaned about by someone who's boyfriend was a postman and he didn't get the same appreciation. 

So now they'll have to do their regular jobs (all with children - that's the area they work in) or delegate someone else to do them and then do the vaccinations before or after their regular shifts. It would help them enormously if the schools all closed down to allow them more time.


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## tom73 (21 Nov 2020)

Promotion nice one .
School Nursing one of the long forgotten areas of primary care they do a lot more than many think. 
At least they are trusting them to jab people Mrs 73 and many others won’t be allowed as the plan stands. To care for her patients they will expect them to plan every thing though and to step in when it go’s wrong. Legally it’s a mind field as that bit no ones thought to amend. Given that when they volunteer to do this outside of work to help out. They will be welcome with open arms is a pretty big kick in the teeth add in the work she’s already done helping to stop the wheels coming off. Don‘t feel much of a thank you.


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## mjr (23 Nov 2020)

So we're told that, for once, Mr Dither-and-Delay is pushing on forwards with his idea. Sadly, that idea is his "Catch Covid for Christmas" plan. https://www.thejournal.ie/uk-covid-19-christmas-5275649-Nov2020/


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Nov 2020)

More great news on vaccine front today.

Notably (from company press release, apply scepticism as you see fit...)

_Furthermore, the vaccine’s simple supply chain and our *no-profit pledge and commitment to broad, equitable and timely access means it will be affordable and globally availabl*e, supplying hundreds of millions of doses on approval.” _


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## tom73 (23 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> More great news on vaccine front today.
> 
> Notably (from company press release, apply scepticism as you see fit...)
> 
> _Furthermore, the vaccine’s simple supply chain and our *no-profit pledge and commitment to broad, equitable and timely access means it will be affordable and globally availabl*e, supplying hundreds of millions of doses on approval.” _



Which is what we really need you can't just leave large parts of the world going unchecked if you really want to get "back to normal".
Or it just start all over again.


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## Unkraut (23 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> So we're told that, for once, Mr Dither-and-Delay is pushing on forwards with his idea. Sadly, that idea is his "Catch Covid for Christmas" plan. https://www.thejournal.ie/uk-covid-19-christmas-5275649-Nov2020/


The Swiss operated a policy of normal life - pubs and restaurants open- and now have a spike in infections resulting in their ICU's being full and they are down to the reserves. This despite being told what would happen by their virologists.

If the risk is too great then Christmas this year will have to go. We are not living at present in normal times, and the virus isn't going to take a Christmas break.


----------



## classic33 (23 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> More great news on vaccine front today.
> 
> Notably (from company press release, apply scepticism as you see fit...)
> 
> _Furthermore, the vaccine’s simple supply chain and our *no-profit pledge and commitment to broad, equitable and timely access means it will be affordable and globally availabl*e, supplying hundreds of millions of doses on approval.” _


Any of the companies involved in "Operation Warp Speed"?


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> Any of the companies involved in "Operation Warp Speed"?



Why would it matter?


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## classic33 (23 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Why would it matter?


Not every company is part of it. Those that are will be getting an Emergency User Agreement, in exchange for their product. They've also shared some of their work amongst others on Operation Warp Speed.

They're basically saying what they agreed to.


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> Not every company is part of it. Those that are will be getting an Emergency User Agreement, in exchange for their product. They've also shared some of their work amongst others on Operation Warp Speed.
> 
> They're basically saying what they agreed to.



I don't think emergency use approval is predicated on warp speed involvement.

It's a defined regulatory pathway, and they wouldn't delay a vaccine because if the funding route, I think?

Could be wrong.

[Edit: and it's only relevant to US approval anyway]


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## Ajax Bay (23 Nov 2020)

"There is a significant inverse correlation between mumps titers [antibodies in subject] [generated] from MMR II [vaccination, in youth, say] and COVID-19 severity [experienced by subjects who catch it]"
See this video - bottom line in 0:20- 0:45, with no starting ads. Watching the whole video requires determination.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdAPgglDJAU

Link to paper in video subscript. Note that this effect has better correlation to those vaccinated as opposed to those who had (just) had the illness (mumps).


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## PaulB (23 Nov 2020)

I just took someone to a drive-through Covid testing centre. All my fears about this came to the surface.

Give someone a yellow jacket, and you can witness their level of self-importance rise out of control.

There were far too many of them than could conceivably be required so they were jumping all over the place like rabbits trying to get noticed. Jumping in front of cars that had the temerity to drive on the public car park was the first annoyance. Being told the speed limit was five MPH another. Talking to you like you were William Simpleton Esq and anything you did was automatically wrong. 'Did I tell you you could open your window?" This from a kid of about fifteen! 

Directed to pull into the narrowest, most tricky car park space in the entire car park, despite there being acres of empty spaces slightly further on.

It was nauseating to see and I can only imagine how bad this is going to get now and it won't be pleasant. 

I understand they want mass co-operation but if their idea is to be as obstructive as possible is going to have split the community into two factions; those who are brow-beaten into doing everything they're told by some adolescent kid who should be glad to actually be in a job and those who turn their backs on it and refuse to subject themselves too such derisory treatment. 

And of course, there's no way of knowing how accurate the findings of the test is going to be. There are too many false positives to enable us to trust the system, especially with people like I've seen today directing them.


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## mjr (23 Nov 2020)

PaulB said:


> And of course, there's no way of knowing how accurate the findings of the test is going to be. There are too many false positives to enable us to trust the system, especially with people like I've seen today directing them.


No way, except for all the work being done to estimate test accuracy, which has a latest report saying "the data suggest that the false-positive rate is very low, under 0.005%." https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...pilot/latest#test-sensitivity-and-specificity

It's still shoot if some people are making a crisis into a drama by acting out their fantasies of being a concentration camp guard, but I don't see how it will mess up the test results.


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## mjr (23 Nov 2020)

"statement from the Prime Minister on Covid-19, expected at approx. 3.30pm." (says parliament.uk)


----------



## CanucksTraveller (23 Nov 2020)

PaulB said:


> I just took someone to a drive-through Covid testing centre. All my fears about this came to the surface.
> 
> Give someone a yellow jacket, and you can witness their level of self-importance rise out of control.
> 
> There were far too many of them than could conceivably be required so they were jumping all over the place like rabbits trying to get noticed. Jumping in front of cars that had the temerity to drive on the public car park was the first annoyance. Being told the speed limit was five MPH another. Talking to you like you were William Simpleton Esq and anything you did was automatically wrong. 'Did I tell you you could open your window?" This from a kid of about fifteen!



That was my experience when I took my daughter for a test too.

One yellow jacket told me to drive into a specific space, so I did exactly as asked. Then I was shouted at by a different yellow jacket for parking in the wrong place.
I kept my windows closed, until a yellow jacket shouted at my wife to open the window otherwise (with sarcasm) how was the jacket supposed hand the bag over? 
With the test on the small one complete and bagged up, wifey then opened her window a little to get shouted at by another yellow jacket to shut her window. Said yellow jacket mocked rhetorically and with more sarcasm, asking whether any yellow jacket had told us to open our window yet! Apparently we were supposed to put our 4 way flashers on when we were ready, which none of the yellow jackets had mentioned. 

I've honestly not been spoken to like that since I was a young recruit! 
I did wonder who these people work for and what sort of training they'd had. They weren't military, or seemingly in any kind of medical clothing, just their own clothes.


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## rockyroller (23 Nov 2020)

Wifey & I are planning to be good, meaning not traveling. unfortunately, our adult kids are not. they're both traveling due to significant others. I tried stopping them, but at approx. 24 & 25 yrs old, there's only so much a Dad can do, to get between their kids & their kids' loves *sigh*


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## Joey Shabadoo (23 Nov 2020)

Doing the rounds of social media, no idea if true -



The Health Service Journal has delivered the most positive scoop of the week, revealing NHS England’s draft plan to roll out Covid vaccines to all adults in England from January, and have all over-18s in England who want one vaccinated by April. Each vaccination requires two doses, taken 28 days apart. The NHS expects to deliver 7 million doses to 3.5 million people in December alone, followed by 4-5 million more every single week from January. The moonshot plan is to deliver 88.5 million vaccination doses – to over 44 million people – all by the end of April. The rollout timetable is as follows:

Care home residents and staff, healthcare workers – from the beginning of December;
Ages 80 plus – from mid-December;
Everyone aged 70-80 – from late December;
Everyone aged 65-70 – from early January;
All high and moderate risk under 65s – from early January;
Everyone aged 50-65 – from mid-January; and
Everyone aged 18-50 – from late January; but with the bulk of this group vaccinated during March.


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## tom73 (23 Nov 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Doing the rounds of social media, no idea if true -
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Basically yes that is the plan and how the government are painting it. But all the nice things like just how to do it, how to get the supply quick enough. Who is going to do all the running round or just how primary care is going to still do everything else and jab everyone at the same time. Are of course missing so it's more a statement than a plan. It's also different to the contact the GP's signed only the week before.


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## tom73 (23 Nov 2020)

Boris said it would be over by Christmas and his winter covid plan looks to be more of him hell bent on it being over come what. 
Then it has to do with public health sadly for many more it will be all over for good. 
Handing out rapid tests as sweets is no plan at all you can't keep having cake and eating it.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> Boris said it would be over by Christmas


Fact check: The PM (@ abouth 1550) specifically denied that "it would be over by Christmas" in his statement.
Which cake is being eaten, please?
You have to give due plaudits to the speech writers: "Christmas - 'Tis the season to be jolly . . . careful." Though our journalist PM no doubt has an eye for the sound bite himself.


----------



## mjr (23 Nov 2020)

Boris's statement to the House: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-covid-19-winter-plan-23-november-2020

Pretty much as leaked: lockdown will end in tiers next Wednesday. Collective bike worship may resume, in groups of six max. Tier 1 will be work from home if possible, fairly low restriction AFAICT. Tier 2 will shut pubs/bars - not sure what else. Tier 3 is lockdown-lite again. No regional variations will be negotiated. Who suffers what should be announced on Thursday. His stupid "Give Covid for Christmas" plan is still expected, but details TBC later. Then some wibble about testing and vaccines and more poundshop-Churchill words.

All rather unedifying IMO. I don't think Tiers 1 and 2 will achieve much and even Tier 3 isn't looking like it'll be that effective, if the R number hasn't dropped in several regions during this lockdown anyway. He seems to be dithering and delaying on tackling education and workplace transmission, while pressing on blindly with his "Give Covid for Christmas" plan to try to get more "Boris Saves Christmas" headlines.


----------



## mjr (23 Nov 2020)

tom73 said:


> Handing out rapid tests as sweets is no plan at all you can't keep having cake and eating it.


Oh but you can:

View: https://twitter.com/TheBrexitComic/status/1143402544691130368


----------



## classic33 (23 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I don't think emergency use approval is predicated on warp speed involvement.
> 
> It's a defined regulatory pathway, and they wouldn't delay a vaccine because if the funding route, I think?
> 
> ...


It speeds up the process of getting the vaccine, in this case, through the testing process. Still being tested in October, in use in December of the same year.

Do you reckon they'll make a seperate one for use outside of America, or that the EUA will not be used to allow use overseas.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> It speeds up the process of getting the vaccine, in this case, through the testing process. Still being tested in October, in use in December of the same year.
> 
> Do you reckon they'll make a seperate one for use outside of America, or that the EUA will not be used to allow use overseas.



The EUA is a US regulatory process. 

I'm not sure of the equivalent European authorisation, but there is one, and I'm sure the companies will be applying for it (it'll be pre agreed with the regulator that this will be how it should happen).

The regulator decides if the data package supplied justifies approval in their own jurisdiction under the EUA or interim approval, or whatever it's called, and will define the full package of data required for routine approval. That'll be all the follow up data for the current trials, and possibly further trials too.

So basically, it's down to the regulator (FDA, EMA, MHRA) not the company or government, and is done on with each regulator separately. Many jurisdictions follow EU lead.


----------



## classic33 (23 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The EUA is a US regulatory process.
> 
> I'm not sure of the equivalent European authorisation, but there is one, and I'm sure the companies will be applying for it (it'll be pre agreed with the regulator that this will be how it should happen).
> 
> ...


_"In a pandemic, these sequential studies can be shortened and partially overlapped but it is important to follow thousands of vaccinated people for several months before clearing the vaccine for general use."_
https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/vdt0005/

You"ll be waiting the several months that before accepting, I take it.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> _"In a pandemic, these sequential studies can be shortened and partially overlapped but it is important to follow thousands of vaccinated people for several months before clearing the vaccine for general use."_
> https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/vdt0005/
> 
> You"ll be waiting the several months that before accepting, I take it.



You've lost me, sorry? There is safety data in the regulatory files being submitted. I think Pfizer said they needed 10,000 people for a minimum of two months from the phase 3, I assume the others have similar or identical requirements.


----------



## classic33 (23 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> You've lost me, sorry? There is safety data in the regulatory files being submitted. I think Pfizer said they needed 10,000 people for a minimum of two months from the phase 3, I assume the others have similar or identical requirements.


Pfizer are not part of Operation Warp Speed. 

Just pointing out what the EUA will allow. Two months from testing still taking place to use.

Once given that EUA elsewhere, do you seriously expect those companies granted one, will not use it to back up use of their product elsewhere.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> Once given that EUA elsewhere, do you seriously expect those companies granted one, will not use it to back up use of their product elsewhere.



Not sure what you mean? The EUA in the US has no direct impact on other jurisdictions, and it's not uncommon for different regulators to take a different view. 

Still no idea what the link to "Warp Speed" is.


----------



## Unkraut (23 Nov 2020)

There continue to be demonstrations against the corona restrictions by the semi-untranslatable _Querdenker_ - thinking outside the box, but contrarians or mavericks might be better words. Now more malcontents than those with genuine grievances at the effects of lockdowns.

An 11 year old girl compared the fact she would have to celebrate her birthday secretly to Anne Frank. Blatant abuse of a child for political purposes, and the public prosecutor looked into it but it is not illegal. (It is illegal to deny or play down the holocaust.) 

This has been followed by a woman in the same grouping comparing herself to Sophie Scholl, who was executed by the Nazis for spreading anti-Nazi leaflets as part of a resistance group during the war. 

The mentality behind this beggars belief, but I have seen it in perhaps not quite so blatant form amongst the wail brigade who think they are hard done by if they have to wear a mask.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (23 Nov 2020)

Unkraut said:


> There continue to be demonstrations against the corona restrictions by the semi-untranslatable _Querdenker_ - thinking outside the box, but contrarians or mavericks might be better words. Now more malcontents than those with genuine grievances at the effects of lockdowns.
> 
> An 11 year old girl compared the fact she would have to celebrate her birthday secretly to Anne Frank. Blatant abuse of a child for political purposes, and the public prosecutor looked into it but it is not illegal. (It is illegal to deny or play down the holocaust.)
> 
> ...


There was a burger chain in America who introduced a 1/3 quarter pounder burger to compete against McDonald's 1/4 pounder. It flopped because people thought the McDonald's burger was bigger. 4 is bigger than 3, right?

It's because of this I no longer get surprised at the utter stupidity that some people display.


----------



## rockyroller (24 Nov 2020)

& hospital workers says that ppl dying (& who have died) think/thought they weren't dying & it wasn't covid ...


----------



## MntnMan62 (25 Nov 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> There was a burger chain in America who introduced a 1/3 quarter pounder burger to compete against McDonald's 1/4 pounder. It flopped because people thought the McDonald's burger was bigger. 4 is bigger than 3, right?
> 
> It's because of this I no longer get surprised at the utter stupidity that some people display.



This is the crux of the biscuit for why America has had the screaming orange sphincter muscle in the White House for the past 4 years. Sheer stupidity. To truly understand the extent of the stupidity all you have to do is have a converstation with a devout Trump fan. And then you have to make note of the fact that almost 74 million people voted for the guy. That is a hand to the face moment.


----------



## PK99 (25 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> This is the crux of the biscuit for why America has had the screaming orange sphincter muscle in the White House for the past 4 years. Sheer stupidity. To truly understand the extent of the stupidity all you have to do is have a converstation with a devout Trump fan. And then you have to make note of the fact that almost 74 million people voted for the guy. That is a hand to the face moment.



Trump was predicted 100 years ago.

H L Mencken American Journalist 1920:

“As democracy is perfected, the office of the President represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and a complete narcissistic moron.”


----------



## DaveReading (25 Nov 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> There was a burger chain in America who introduced a 1/3 quarter pounder burger to compete against McDonald's 1/4 pounder. It flopped because people thought the McDonald's burger was bigger. 4 is bigger than 3, right?



That's a great story. Unfortunately there's no evidence that the supposed cause-and-effect is actually true.



> It's because of this I no longer get surprised at the utter stupidity that some people display.



Plenty of highly intelligent people struggle with fractions.


----------



## nickyboy (25 Nov 2020)

DaveReading said:


> That's a great story. Unfortunately there's no evidence that the supposed cause-and-effect is actually true.
> 
> 
> 
> Plenty of highly intelligent people struggle with fractions.


Particularly as a "1/3 quarter pounder" is 1/12 which is a very small burger indeed


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (25 Nov 2020)

My bad 

https://economistsview.typepad.com/...ithmetic-failings-displayed-by-americans.html

Why the Third Pounder hamburger failed: One of the most vivid arithmetic failings displayed by Americans occurred in the early 1980s, when the A&W restaurant chain released a new hamburger to rival the McDonald’s Quarter Pounder. With a third-pound of beef, the A&W burger had more meat than the Quarter Pounder; in taste tests, customers preferred A&W’s burger. And it was less expensive. A lavish A&W television and radio marketing campaign cited these benefits. Yet instead of leaping at the great value, customers snubbed it. Only when the company held customer focus groups did it become clear why. The Third Pounder presented the American public with a test in fractions. And we failed. Misunderstanding the value of one-third, customers believed they were being overcharged. Why, they asked the researchers, should they pay the same amount for a third of a pound of meat as they did for a quarter-pound of meat at McDonald’s. The “4” in “¼,” larger than the “3” in “⅓,” led them astray.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (25 Nov 2020)

Midge Ure has penned a new charity song

It's Christmastime, there's no need to be afraid
At Christmastime, we let in light and we banish shade

And in our world of plenty we can spread a smile of joy
Throw your arms around the world at Christmastime

But say a prayer, pray for the other ones
At Christmastime it's hard, but when you're having fun

There's a world outside your window
And it's a world of dread and fear

Where the only water flowing
Is the bitter sting of tears
And the Christmas bells that ring there are the clanging chimes of doom
Well tonight thank God it's them instead of you

And there won't be gatherings in England this Christmastime
The greatest gift they'll get this year is life

Where nothing ever happens
No gatherings or turkeys eaten
Do they know it's Christmastime at all?
Here's to you
Raise a glass for everyone

Here's to them
Underneath that pouring rain
Do they know it's Christmastime at all?

Vaccinate the world
Vaccinate the world
Vaccinate the world
Let them know it's Christmastime again
Vaccinate the world
Let them know it's Christmastime again
Vaccinate the world
Let them know it's Christmastime again
Vaccinate the world
Let them know it's Christmastime again
Vaccinate the world
Let them know it's Christmastime again
Vaccinate the world
Let them know it's Christmastime again


----------



## johnblack (25 Nov 2020)

Good grief.


----------



## mjr (25 Nov 2020)

Interesting advice from Independent SAGE at https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Winter-celebrations-final.pdf


----------



## rockyroller (25 Nov 2020)

you guys want some fun TV watching?

Trackdown - the full chump-episode from 1958


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5EJBuVjfNc


In this episode of Trackdown from 1958, a con artist named walter chump comes to a small town in texas where he scares the people into buying his fake anti meteorite wall of umbrellas to save the citizens. The whole episode is eery with numerous references to chump's ongoing wall con. Could it have been that the writer was inspired by fred chump, his father, who at that time was conning in Queens?


----------



## MntnMan62 (25 Nov 2020)

PK99 said:


> Trump was predicted 100 years ago.
> 
> H L Mencken American Journalist 1920:
> 
> “As democracy is perfected, the office of the President represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and a complete narcissistic moron.”



It seems that you and H L Mencken are absolutely correct.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (25 Nov 2020)

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa09am-cOsC-FSgr_nLkFFA/

There was a Covid-19 webinar this afternoon, linked above, discussing vaccines. Part of the Covid-19 symptom survey app team (For some reason I failed to get the address to embed.)


----------



## mjr (26 Nov 2020)

The ex-landlord of Hancock's local got a fat NHS contract after Whatsapping him, says https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ovid-test-kit-contract-after-whatsapp-message

Official response to this chumocracy allegation includes "no evidence" and “We do not comment on the secretary of state’s personal relationships” rather than a straight denial!


----------



## mjr (26 Nov 2020)

Hancock's statement to the Commons expected about 11:30, which is expected to detail which areas get what.


----------



## mjr (26 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> Hancock's statement to the Commons expected about 11:30, which is expected to detail which areas get what.


gov.uk/find-coronavirus-local-restrictions was put live 11:14, crashed in under 10 minutes, and just got the government a verbal rebuke from the Speaker of the Commons for not showing Parliament enough respect to announce things to it first.

Currently waiting for Hancock to appear because that delayed proceedings by about 10 minutes.


----------



## Archie_tect (26 Nov 2020)

Is Hancock's Half-Hour on repeat every day?


----------



## fossyant (26 Nov 2020)

T3 for Manchester. I had hoped to go to a covid safe outdoor 'eatery' before Christmas - went under T3 rules last month and it was excellently organised (so were the two other places we went to over the weekend), but they won't be open, nothing will.

Even more madness are the Christmas plans in a T3 area.


----------



## straas (26 Nov 2020)

We had our first meal out as a couple in 15 months booked for 3rd. 

so so fed up with it now.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Nov 2020)

Hancock trying divide and rule, blame local leaders for his govt failure. 

It'll probably work.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Nov 2020)

straas said:


> We had our first meal out as a couple in 15 months booked for 3rd.
> 
> so so fed up with it now.



I feel similarly, but hold on. Vaccine is coming, and every day of restrictions means lives saved.


----------



## mjr (26 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Hancock trying divide and rule, blame local leaders for his govt failure.
> 
> It'll probably work.


Yep.

Full list with "reasons" https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2020-11-26/hcws608

Around here, it seems like they're trying to get good honest hard-working law-abiding Tory voters in the more rural boroughs to blame the lying feckless outlaw bad Labour voters in the city. 

Of course, the paranoid take-back-control-freaks at gov.uk won't give local leaders the powers and resources to address the crisis properly. County public health directors and trading officers have barely anything to work with and borough environmental health and economic development officers have almost nothing except "covid marshals".

Boris likes his war rhetoric and it's often said that wars are usually won by the leaders who recognise and enable the best generals, rather than those who try to do too many of the generals' jobs themselves.


----------



## fossyant (26 Nov 2020)

Well, looks like MIL will be spending Christmas Day shut in her room at the Nursing home. We're not holding hope of being able to see her at all. Xmas dinner alone ! It's sh1t for care home residents.


----------



## shep (26 Nov 2020)

Wolves in Tier 3 as well.


----------



## midlife (26 Nov 2020)

Cumbria in tier 2, bit of a surprise as the infection rate here in Carlisle stubbornly high.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Nov 2020)

shep said:


> Wolves in Tier 3 as well.



I've always thought anyone using Lynx should be isolated, while we're at it


----------



## geocycle (26 Nov 2020)

midlife said:


> Cumbria in tier 2, bit of a surprise as the infection rate here in Carlisle stubbornly high.



while Lancaster with fewer cases is in tier 3! Wish they would use the evidence. Surely biggest concern must be London with higher values and still rising.


----------



## mjr (26 Nov 2020)

geocycle said:


> while Lancaster with fewer cases is in tier 3! Wish they would use the evidence. Surely biggest concern must be London with higher values and still rising.


Lancashire is in tier 3 because "While there have been improvements in some areas, case rates and the proportion of tests which are positive for covid-19 remain high. Case rates in over 60s are very high (over 200 per 100,000) in 6 lower tier local authorities. There is still pressure on the NHS in this region."

Carlisle is in tier 2 because "The picture in Cumbria is broadly improving although case rates in Carlisle and South Lakeland are increasing – with increases likely due to a large school outbreak. Case rates in over 60s are above 100 per 100,000 in Carlisle and Barrow-in-Furness. These case rates are too high for allocation to Tier 1 but Cumbria’s trajectory does currently not warrant inclusion in Tier 3."

Hancock's written answer also says "Taken as a whole, the situation in London has stabilised at a similar case rate and positivity to other parts of the country in Tier 2."

Disagree about which evidence they've used, or the action levels they've chosen, if you like (as I do), but they have actually seemed to use some evidence this time.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Nov 2020)

geocycle said:


> while Lancaster with fewer cases is in tier 3! Wish they would use the evidence. Surely biggest concern must be London with higher values and still rising.



Issue seems to be that large areas have been lumped together. 

On the bright side, much better to be wrongly in a higher tier than vice versa. Higher tier = lower rate = less deaths.


----------



## Yellow Fang (26 Nov 2020)

Bastard, tier 2 means pubs can open but only if the serve substantial meals. So I still can't go to the farking pub.


----------



## johnblack (26 Nov 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> Bastard, tier 2 means pubs can open but only if the serve substantial meals. So I still can't go to the farking pub.


Pubs have always had to work with rules that they have worked around, I think that will remain the same. Difficult for busy town centre pubs, but less so out in the wilds.


----------



## nickyboy (26 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Issue seems to be that large areas have been lumped together.
> 
> On the bright side, much better to be wrongly in a higher tier than vice versa. Higher tier = lower rate = less deaths.


Higher tier than necessary = more disruption to economy and social well-being of residents = more negative impacts on residents than necessary


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Nov 2020)

.


nickyboy said:


> Higher tier than necessary = more disruption to economy and social well-being of residents = more negative impacts on residents than necessary



Maybe. It might be that the tiers aren't actually strict enough to control the infection. It seems likely that tier one will result in R>1 from what has happened before, so everyone will end up in at least tier 2 until vaccines arrive.

Hence my logic that if you're lumped in with an innappropriate tier, better a higher one than a lower one.

I'm not at all disputing the negative effects of higher tiers, just that they're better than more corpses.


----------



## geocycle (26 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> Lancashire is in tier 3 because "While there have been improvements in some areas, case rates and the proportion of tests which are positive for covid-19 remain high. Case rates in over 60s are very high (over 200 per 100,000) in 6 lower tier local authorities. There is still pressure on the NHS in this region."
> 
> Carlisle is in tier 2 because "The picture in Cumbria is broadly improving although case rates in Carlisle and South Lakeland are increasing – with increases likely due to a large school outbreak. Case rates in over 60s are above 100 per 100,000 in Carlisle and Barrow-in-Furness. These case rates are too high for allocation to Tier 1 but Cumbria’s trajectory does currently not warrant inclusion in Tier 3."
> 
> ...


I understand and agree they have used data, just in a really crude way. Lancaster has values of 90 per 100000 which is less than Cumbria, Liverpool and almost every London borough. By taking it as a whole, Hancock has ignored geographic complexity. Not an easy exercise but could do better.


----------



## shep (26 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I've always thought anyone using Lynx should be isolated, while we're at it


Really love to reply with a witty retort but on this occasion I'm completely lost?

Lynx, as in the deodorant or the wild cat?

It's funny anyway.


----------



## mjr (26 Nov 2020)

geocycle said:


> I understand and agree they have used data, just in a really crude way. Lancaster has values of 90 per 100000 which is less than Cumbria, Liverpool and almost every London borough. By taking it as a whole, Hancock has ignored geographic complexity. Not an easy exercise but could do better.


I've not checked the whole list but I think it's done by county-level area (so unitary council districts are treated as counties for this), which is the level of local government that has Directors of Public Health who used to be responsible for managing pandemics before Hancock panicked and gutted their roles in a centralisation reform earlier this year.

So I think technically it's David Cameron who ignored geographic complexity by abolishing the old regional health authorities and handing their public health functions back to county councils, who were last responsible for public health before WW2. Great moderniser, not at all prone to rose-tinted nostalgia, was Cameron(!)

Hancock's just stuck with Cameron's terrible idea in this way, while making it worse in others by centralising!


----------



## mjr (26 Nov 2020)

shep said:


> Really love to reply with a witty retort but on this occasion I'm completely lost?
> 
> Lynx, as in the deodorant or the wild cat?
> 
> It's funny anyway.


Anyone using Lynx the bus company is pretty isolated at the moment anyway, with so many seats marked "out of use".


----------



## classic33 (26 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> Anyone using Lynx the bus company is pretty isolated at the moment anyway, with so many seats marked "out of use".


As are all bus services, and rail. Coach travel is stuck with the same limits.


----------



## Accy cyclist (26 Nov 2020)

Bloody disgusting what's going on out there! I've had all my anti lockdown posts deleted in a local paper,while some pro government tit who advocates 25 years jail for those who 'break the rules' is allowed post after post to spout his crap!
Then we have this!!https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ancelled-Covid-told-ZOOM-cancer.html#comments
If i was her family i'd be suing the NHS for every penny i could get!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Nov 2020)

shep said:


> Really love to reply with a witty retort but on this occasion I'm completely lost?
> 
> Lynx, as in the deodorant or the wild cat?
> 
> It's funny anyway.



I was thinking deodorant... Wit doesn't really work online, does it?


----------



## mjr (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Bloody disgusting what's going on out there! I've had all my anti lockdown posts deleted in a local paper,while some pro government tit who advocates 25 years jail for those who 'break the rules' is allowed post after post to spout his crap!
> Then we have this!!https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ancelled-Covid-told-ZOOM-cancer.html#comments
> If i was her family i'd be suing the NHS for every penny i could get!


You can't really claim other people are spouting crap and then follow it with a link to the Daily Heil, a newspaper that makes so much shoot up that even Wikipedia dismisses it as unreliable!

I don't really get why you are pro virus anyway. I think I recall reading you've been hard done by a few times, but that's not really a great reason to support humanity's current biggest threat. It probably won't kill those who did you wrong.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> I've had all my anti lockdown posts deleted in a local paper



Perhaps you should ask yourself why...


----------



## Accy cyclist (26 Nov 2020)

mjr said:


> You can't really claim other people are spouting crap and then follow it with a link to the Daily Heil, a newspaper that makes so much shoot up that even Wikipedia dismisses it as unreliable!
> 
> I don't really get why you are pro virus anyway. I think I recall reading you've been hard done by a few times, but that's not really a great reason to support humanity's current biggest threat. It probably won't kill those who did you wrong.


So you're saying that young woman is making it all up?! Oh and 'humanities biggest threat' isn't this 'virus'!


----------



## Accy cyclist (26 Nov 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Perhaps you should ask yourself why...


You tell me why! Probably because i don't spout left wing sheeple crap!


----------



## mjr (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> So you're saying that young woman is making it all up?!


No, I'm saying that the Daily Heil may have made it all up, possibly including that young woman, as they've been caught making stuff up before.


----------



## MntnMan62 (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> You tell me why! Probably because i don't spout left wing sheeple crap!



It seems that we are now seeing 2,384 deaths per day from Covid in the US. The peak was back in May when we hit our all time record of 2,770 deaths in a day. And I would bet that those numbers are actually conservative. If deaths remain at that level it equates to 870,160 deaths per year. It seems that you don't have much problem with that many people dying. And you don't think we should do anything to attempt to bring the death rate down such as wearing masks and keeping people from congregating which is known to spread the virus. Do I have that wrong?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> You tell me why! Probably because i don't spout left wing sheeple crap!



There you go, you've answered your question. Though not quite in the way you intended, methinks.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> It seems that we are now seeing 2,384 deaths per day from Covid in the US.



Grim. All the best, stay safe as far as you can.


----------



## Accy cyclist (26 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> It seems that you don't have much problem with that many people dying.


Do you have figures for how many will die from the economic depression and poverty caused by this never ending cycle of lockdowns!


----------



## kingrollo (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Bloody disgusting what's going on out there! I've had all my anti lockdown posts deleted in a local paper,while some pro government tit who advocates 25 years jail for those who 'break the rules' is allowed post after post to spout his crap!
> Then we have this!!https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ancelled-Covid-told-ZOOM-cancer.html#comments
> If i was her family i'd be suing the NHS for every penny i could get!




On what grounds ? (Genuine question)


----------



## MntnMan62 (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Do you have figures for how many will die from the economic depression and poverty caused by this never ending cycle of lockdowns!



Thanks for your response. The answer to my question would be "No, I have no problem with that many people dying." As to the answer to your question, I think it is up to you to make your case. I made mine. You provide the numbers for how many people who have died from poverty and isolation that were directly related to Covid. There are already a certain number of deaths related to poverty and isolation. So you will need to establish the INCREASE in those numbers to establish how many are directly related to Covid. My suspicion is you can't provide the numbers you ask for. Therefore your question is moot.


----------



## kingrollo (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Do you have figures for how many will die from the economic depression and poverty caused by this never ending cycle of lockdowns!


No and no one does....for one it depends over what period.

However one of the basic principles of medicine is that you deal with the emergency patients first.rightly or wrongly you don't let people die in front of you to deal with a batch of patient elective scans etc.


----------



## Accy cyclist (26 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> On what grounds ? (Genuine question)


On the grounds of gross negligence.


----------



## Accy cyclist (26 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> The answer to my question would be "No, I have no problem with that many people dying."


I don't understand. Are you supplying the answer along with the question?


----------



## MntnMan62 (26 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What's a sheeple ?



Combination of sheep and people. He's suggesting that people who support mask wearing and social distancing are just followers who blindly follow what the government says. I contend that people who are opposed to mask wearing and social distancing are the true sheeple. They blindly follow the rhetoric of those in government who believe that nothing should be done to stem the tide of Covid. It's a heartless and callous view of the world that supports such beliefs. And it is these people who have absolutely zero basis to substantiate their position. Instead they only respond to facts and statistics with questions that have no answer. I wear a mask whenever I go to a public place. So if I'm walking around the city I'm wearing a mask at all times even if I'm outside because I am constantly walking by other people. But I haven't gone out much. I figure a year or two of being a bit isolated is a small price to pay for helping to prevent more deaths. One last thing that Accy cyclist hasn't considered either is the fact that if people would follow the mask wearing and social distancing protocols, there would be no need for full lockdowns that shut the economy. Ironic that they are opposed the very thing that would give them what they want.


----------



## MntnMan62 (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> I don't understand. Are you supplying the answer along with the question?



I'm interpreting your response to my comment. If I'm wrong, please point out where I am wrong.


----------



## Accy cyclist (26 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I'm interpreting your response to my comment. If I'm wrong, please point out where I am wrong.


As i thought. You're putting word into my mouth. You were hoping i'd say words along the lines of your supplied answer. I'll ask you a question. Do you give a toss about the high rise of suicides and the many private sector workers about to lose their jobs,homes etc if they haven't done so already?


----------



## MntnMan62 (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> As i thought. You're putting word into my mouth.



I'm not putting words in your mouth because I've twice asked for your response. You refuse to give one. Therefore that in and of itself is a response. Again, if I'm wrong please explain how I am wrong. Third time I've asked for you explain how I'm wrong.


----------



## MntnMan62 (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> As i thought. You're putting word into my mouth. You were hoping i'd say words along the lines of your supplied answer. I'll ask you a question. Do you give a toss about the high rise of suicides and the many private sector workers about to lose their jobs,homes etc if they haven't done so already?



Sure I do. But the deaths due to the physical symptoms of the disease are preventable. And again, I've already said that wearing masks and social distancing would prevent the total shutdown of economies. So, if you just wore a mask and stayed away from people then there would be no need for lockdowns. What do you have to say to this?


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## kingrollo (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> On the grounds of gross negligence.



I take it you don't work in the legal profession lol


----------



## kingrollo (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> As i thought. You're putting word into my mouth. You were hoping i'd say words along the lines of your supplied answer. I'll ask you a question. Do you give a toss about the high rise of suicides and the many private sector workers about to lose their jobs,homes etc if they haven't done so already?



The rise is suicides was fact checked by full fact.org - and actually suicides had gone down during lockdown !!!


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## PK99 (26 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> No and no one does....for one it depends over what period.
> 
> However one of the basic principles of medicine is that you deal with the emergency patients first. Rightly or wrongly you don't let people die in front of you to deal with a batch of patient elective scans etc.



@kingrollo 

That, as you rightly say, is one of the basic principles of medicine.

But, I know I tread on very dangerous ground here, the pandemic has highlighted this as an issue:

Is it right to value all lives equally?
Should a criterion be Years of Life lost?

I saw (sorry, can't find the article now) an article comparing the Pandemic spend on saving a year of life to the Health care planning numbers used. The disparity was orders of magnitude.

This snippet from a 2018 article is pertinent.
https://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/...earch-methods/1a-epidemiology/years-lost-life

and this WHO paper makes the concept real,

_The rationale for use Years of life are lost (YLL) take into account the age at which deaths occur by giving greater weight to deaths at younger age and lower weight to deaths at older age. The years of life lost (percentage of total) indicator measures the YLL due to a cause as a proportion of the total YLL lost in the population due to premature mortality. _

https://www.who.int/whosis/whostat2006YearsOfLifeLost.pdf?ua=1

So, the question that Accy puts rather crudely is actually moot: 

*How to balance the direct loss of life in the pandemic against indirect loss of life resulting from pandemic control measures.*

Or, closer to the basic principle you posited:

Two patients arrive, with an identical short term fatal short term condition. For which you have one life saving "dose".
Who gets it the 25-year-old or the 95-year-old? 
If the 95-year-old arrives 5 minutes before the 25-year-old do you rescind the instruction to give the dose to the 95-year-old?

Tough, tough questions.


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## Poacher (26 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> As i thought. You're putting word into my mouth. You were hoping i'd say words along the lines of your supplied answer. I'll ask you a question. Do you give a toss about the high rise of suicides and the many private sector workers about to lose their jobs,homes etc if they haven't done so already?


Do *you *give a toss about the high rise of suicides and the many private sector workers about to lose their jobs, homes etc if they haven't done so already as a result of Brexit?

Edit: AND public sector workers.


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## Accy cyclist (26 Nov 2020)

Poacher said:


> Do *you *give a toss about the high rise of suicides and the many private sector workers about to lose their jobs, homes etc if they haven't done so already as a result of Brexit?
> 
> Edit: AND public sector workers.


Yes i do,but not so much for public sector workers.


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## LCpl Boiled Egg (26 Nov 2020)

What do you have against public sector workers?


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## kingrollo (26 Nov 2020)

PK99 said:


> @kingrollo
> 
> That, as you rightly say, is one of the basic principles of medicine.
> 
> ...



I do think that is a slightly different point to one accy posted.

Accy - was saying that pushing long term problems to back of the queue was going to create more health issues than if we just let covid run through unchecked. You only have think about that for 5 minutes and realise the flaws in his argument.

Very often the choice sorts itself out- the 85 who needs a new hip - has other issues that prevent the surgery going ahead etc.

I had cause a few years back to read my CCG policy on procedures of limited clinical value - which is guidance along the lines of you're example (obviously not so extreme) - quite an alarming document really.


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## kingrollo (26 Nov 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> What do you have against public sector workers?



We get inflation busting pay rises ! (He reads the daily mail).

I didn't get a pay rise for 8 years - last couple have been 2% and 1% - my 0.5% due in April - has now been halted.

For 17 years I have paid approx £230 a month into pension - that's forecast to give me a pension of £5k per year !

But like I say he reads the daily mail.


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## Jenkins (26 Nov 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We get inflation busting pay rises ! (He reads the daily mail).
> 
> I didn't get a pay rise for 8 years - last couple have been 2% and 1% - my 0.5% due in April - has now been halted.
> 
> ...


This - very much so.


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## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Yes i do,but not so much for public sector workers.



All he's doing is trying to get a rise out of people. While he may actually believe the stuff he blurts out, I ask you, does it really matter what he thinks? Think about it.


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## Accy cyclist (27 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> *All he's doing is trying to get a rise out of people. *While he may actually believe the stuff he blurts out, I ask you, does it really matter what he thinks? Think about it.



Typical! That's how you lefties think. Anyone disagreeing with me must be a 'troll' or a 'troublemaker'. I've had my say. I think this virus is being used for sinister reasons,but you keep on wearing your mask/muzzle and slowly walk into totalitarianism.👍

Edit..By the way,all left wingers aren't pro lockdown and many right wingers are pro lockdown. I can easily identify with anyone who sees sinister things happening,regardless of their political allegiance.


----------



## Unkraut (27 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> ... you keep on wearing your mask/muzzle and slowly walk into totalitarianism.


I am not of the left, and certainly don't want to walk into totalitarianism of either the left or the right, but I'm happy to wear the mask if it prevents me or anyone else being stretchered into casualty.


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## classic33 (27 Nov 2020)

_"C19 rate per 100,000 for tests carried out 7 days prior to 21/11 was 333 down from 367 on 20/11. The rate is still too high. We need to keep up the good work and continue to do the 3 big things to protect those we love, our communities and NHS and social care services."_

What would you interpret the above as actually saying? 
The figures and dates more than anything else.


----------



## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Typical! That's how you lefties think. Anyone disagreeing with me must be a 'troll' or a 'troublemaker'. I've had my say. I think this virus is being used for sinister reasons,but you keep on wearing your mask/muzzle and slowly walk into totalitarianism.👍
> 
> Edit..By the way,all left wingers aren't pro lockdown and many right wingers are pro lockdown. I can easily identify with anyone who sees sinister things happening,regardless of their political allegiance.



That's the thing about you though. You don't provide any rationale for your point of view. You make your point and then expect everyone else to prove why your point isn't valid. You can't even debate your own side of the issue, let alone counter someone elses. I'm finding this quite entertaining.

And by the way, I'm not a left winger. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.


----------



## Accy cyclist (27 Nov 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I am not of the left, and certainly don't want to walk into totalitarianism of either the left or the right, but I'm happy to wear the mask if it prevents me or anyone else being stretchered into casualty.


Would you be happy to make a stand and stop the potential forced vaccination of many people?


----------



## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Would you be happy to make a stand and stop the potential forced vaccination of many people?



What do you find wrong with people willingly accepting being vaccinated based upon a full understanding of the vaccine and it's testing history?


----------



## classic33 (27 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> What do you find wrong with people willingly accepting being vaccinated based upon a full understanding of the vaccine and it's testing history?


I doubt if there is anyone with a full understanding of the vaccines and their testing history.

Last time I checked, there were ten seperate ones.


----------



## Unkraut (27 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Would you be happy to make a stand and stop the potential forced vaccination of many people?


Yes I would, but I'm not convinced at this distance that this is actually on the cards in the UK. Both Germany and France have said any vaccine will be voluntary. If there is an attempt to make it compulsory in the UK, the preparation for this goes back long before Corona to a pre-existing malaise in the political system regardless of the political hue of the government.


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## Accy cyclist (27 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> What do you find wrong with people willingly accepting being vaccinated based upon a full understanding of the vaccine and it's testing history?


You do know the difference between willingly and forced i take it.


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## Accy cyclist (27 Nov 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Yes I would,


Good!!👍


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## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> I doubt if there is anyone with a full understanding of the vaccines and their testing history.
> 
> Last time I checked, there were ten seperate ones.



I'm sure there are people out there who have been following this stuff. After all, what else do people have to do with their time besides surf the internet looking for obscure information about stuff they want to know about?


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## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> You do know the difference between willingly and forced i take it.



Yet again, you answer a question with a question. Clearly you don't know much about anything at all.


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## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

There will never be a compulsory vaccination in the US. However, any private business could conceivably refuse to allow unvaccinated people to enter their establishments. Is it really the idea of compulsion that bothers you people or is it just the idea of a vaccine of any kind that bothers you?


----------



## classic33 (27 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I'm sure there are people out there who have been following this stuff. After all, what else do people have to do with their time besides surf the internet looking for obscure information about stuff they want to know about?


Testing is ongoing, so full results aren't known by those doing the testing. How are we supposed to know what they don't?


----------



## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> Testing is ongoing, so full results aren't known by those doing the testing. How are we supposed to know what they don't?



Someone interested can find out the progress of testing and what preliminary results look like. You can find out anything if you try hard enough.


----------



## Accy cyclist (27 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Yet again, you answer a question with a question. Clearly you don't much about anything at all.



It was a rhetorical question.

I asked "Would you be happy to make a stand and stop the potential forced vaccination of many people"?

You replied 'What do you find wrong with people willingly accepting being vaccinated based upon a full understanding of the vaccine and it's testing history'?

Ok,if you want an answer to that here it is,though bear in mind my point was against the forced vaccination,not the willingness of people to take it.

No,i wouldn't find people willingly taking the vaccine bad,but i would find the unwilling people being forced to have the vaccine very bad.


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## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> It was a rhetorical question.
> 
> I asked "Would you be happy to make a stand and stop the potential forced vaccination of many people"?
> 
> ...



You didn't ask me that question. You asked @Unkraut that question. I didn't answer that question. You can't even keep up with your own bull****. But since you raise the it here, I'll bite. Is not the issue of forced vaccination related to whether people will willingly take the vaccine? After all, the only reason a government would attempt to make a vaccine mandatory would be if they felt that too few people would be willing to take it of their own accord. It's something called public safety. The idea to protect the people of a given country from a disease that is killing thousands of people every day. But if there was an indication that most people would willingly submit to the vaccine, then there would be no need to make it mandatory. Do you see the correlation in that thought process? Basically an age old philosophical postulation by Jeremy Bentham. The greatest good for the greatest number. I'm not saying that I agree with forced vaccination. Generally speaking I'm not in favor of forced vaccination. But I could understand that there are certain circumstances where it could be justified.


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## classic33 (27 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Someone interested can find out the progress of testing and what preliminary results look like. You can find out anything if you try hard enough.


At present, it's not entirely clear if the vaccines will be a one-off, or required annually, like the flu jab. Whether it will actually immunise you from catching it again. Long term effects are unknown. 

Simple questions like what could happen if you are given two different versions(different manufacturer's) if it is an annual jab, are unknown at this moment in time.


----------



## classic33 (27 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> You didn't ask me that question. You asked @Unkraut that question.* I didn't answer that question. * You can't even keep up with your own bull****. But since you raise the it here, I'll bite. Is not the issue of forced vaccination related to whether people will willingly take the vaccine? After all, the only reason a government would attempt to make a vaccine mandatory would be if they felt that too few people would be willing to take it of their own accord. It's something called public safety. The idea to protect the people of a given country from a disease that is killing thousands of people every day. But if there was an indication that most people would willingly submit to the vaccine, then there would be no need to make it mandatory. Do you see the correlation in that thought process? Basically an age old philosophical postulation by Jeremy Bentham. The greatest good for the greatest number. I'm not saying that I agree with forced vaccination. Generally speaking I'm not in favor of forced vaccination. But I could understand that there are certain circumstances where it could be justified.


Seems like you did answer.


----------



## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> At present, it's not entirely clear if the vaccines will be a one-off, or required annually, like the flu jab. Whether it will actually immunise you from catching it again. Long term effects are unknown.
> 
> Simple questions like what could happen if you are given two different versions(different manufacturer's) if it is an annual jab, are unknown at this moment in time.



I agree that phase 3 testing is still ongoing. I don't see a vaccine being released very soon like Trump wants us to think. I don't see a vaccine being available for widespread use until around this time next year. And then it will take a while for it to be distributed so the impact of it will not be felt until sometime in 2022. By then we will obviously know more about any vaccine and hopefully know more about the virus as well.


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## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> Seems like you did answer.
> View attachment 560369



I actually responded with much more than that little screen shot you copied. 




MntnMan62 said:


> You didn't ask me that question. You asked @Unkraut that question. I didn't answer that question. You can't even keep up with your own bull****. But since you raise the it here, I'll bite. Is not the issue of forced vaccination related to whether people will willingly take the vaccine? After all, the only reason a government would attempt to make a vaccine mandatory would be if they felt that too few people would be willing to take it of their own accord. It's something called public safety. The idea to protect the people of a given country from a disease that is killing thousands of people every day. But if there was an indication that most people would willingly submit to the vaccine, then there would be no need to make it mandatory. Do you see the correlation in that thought process? Basically an age old philosophical postulation by Jeremy Bentham. The greatest good for the greatest number. I'm not saying that I agree with forced vaccination. Generally speaking I'm not in favor of forced vaccination. But I could understand that there are certain circumstances where it could be justified.


----------



## classic33 (27 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I agree that phase 3 testing is still ongoing. I don't see a vaccine being released very soon like Trump wants us to think. I don't see a vaccine being available for widespread use until around this time next year. And then it will take a while for it to be distributed so the impact of it will not be felt until sometime in 2022. By then we will obviously know more about any vaccine and hopefully know more about the virus as well.


Pfizer have said 40,000,000 doses by the end of December. So 40,000,000 get given a vaccine whose long term effects are unknown at the time they are given it.

I'm no longer able/allowed to participate in drug trials due to a "serious adverse reaction" in November 1995. Anti-epiletic medication involved at the time. The best part of three months in hospital as a result.


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## Accy cyclist (27 Nov 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> But I could understand that there are certain circumstances where it could be justified.


'Certain circumstances'. Admit it. You are in favour of the forced vaccination of millions of people who do not want to have it. How would you impose your forced vaccination? Would it be by ostracising people,or by physically holding them down?


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## classic33 (27 Nov 2020)

Screenshot is your reply, in full.
Post 15,212.

Adding
You quote post 15,223 in reply, as proof you never answered.


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## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

classic33 said:


> Pfizer have said 40,000,000 doses by the end of December. So 40,000,000 get given a vaccine whose long term effects are unknown at the time they are given it.
> 
> I'm no longer able/allowed to participate in drug trials due to a "serious adverse reaction" in November 1995. Anti-epiletic medication involved at the time. The best part of three months in hospital as a result.



A lot has to happen between now and then. Even if they could produce 40 million doses, it will take a very long time to distribute them. And 40 million isn't anywhere near what is needed to effectively protect everyone. If a vaccine is going to be produced now and attempt to put an end to deaths caused by the virus, they will have to put it out there without knowing the long term effects. The only way to know long term effects is with the passage of time. Study of the virus and the vaccine will continue even after approval is given to distribute the doses. If they identify problems with the vaccine, they can either fix the problems or halt the distribution of the vaccine. Not much more that can be done. I'm sorry you can't participate in drug trials but you've already paid your dues. Ultimately, science is a pretty powerful thing. And while governments may not always have the right motivation for doing things, the scientists are pretty idealistic and have one main motivation. To save lives.


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## MntnMan62 (27 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> 'Certain circumstances'. Admit it. You are in favour of the forced vaccination of millions of people who do not want to have it. How would you impose your forced vaccination? Would it be by ostracising people,or by physically holding them down?



Now who's putting words in someone's mouth?


----------



## RecordAceFromNew (27 Nov 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Bloody disgusting what's going on out there! I've had all my anti lockdown posts deleted in a local paper





Accy cyclist said:


> Do you have figures for how many will die from the economic depression and poverty caused by this never ending cycle of lockdowns!



Plenty of figures exist to show what harms the economy and lives most is not lockdown, but lockdown too late, or just as bad reopening before a country should/could, as Boris has done. See this, economic impact comparison is in section 4.

Debating whether lockdown or open up to keep the economy going, like our government is doing, is missing the point entirely - they are fighting over a "false dilemma". The damage to an economy can only be minimised by implementing lockdown and subsequent containment measures properly.


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## Adam4868 (27 Nov 2020)

This from Hancock is pathetic...his criticism of Andy Burnham.

'Unfortunately we did see the impact on cases continuing to go up in those areas where local leaders were not working alongside us and it was a sharp contrast to what happened for instance in Liverpool.'


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## raleighnut (28 Nov 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> This from Hancock is pathetic...his criticism of Andy Burnham.
> 
> 'Unfortunately we did see the impact on cases continuing to go up in those areas where local leaders were not working alongside us and it was a sharp contrast to what happened for instance in Liverpool.'


Typical 'nasty party 'blame shifting'


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 Nov 2020)

Excellent summary of UK position from independent SAGE


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1332353257612730368


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## Unkraut (29 Nov 2020)

I learned something a couple of days ago which might be of interest to a certain gentleman across the Pond.

The virus being experienced in Europe should more properly be called the Italian virus, not the Chinese one if you have to give it a name based on land of origin. Source was an interview with Prof Kekulé virologist in Halle, who claimed the virus was imported into north Italy presumably from China at the beginning of the year, mutated into a more infectious and nasty version causing the pandemic in northern Italy, and was exported from there across Europe and then to the United States. It may in turn have found its way back into China.


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## tom73 (29 Nov 2020)

Rolling out the 20 min test's all over the place without even having finished the evaluation of the pilot in Liverpool. Won't get use out the mess any quicker. In fact it may make it a whole lot worse the early signs from Liverpool of what has not work well multiplied in other areas is not a good picture. Add the political games playing out by all sides at all levels the end game is not getting closer.


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## MntnMan62 (30 Nov 2020)

Unkraut said:


> I learned something a couple of days ago which might be of interest to a certain gentleman across the Pond.
> 
> The virus being experienced in Europe should more properly be called the Italian virus, not the Chinese one if you have to give it a name based on land of origin. Source was an interview with Prof Kekulé virologist in Halle, who claimed the virus was imported into north Italy presumably from China at the beginning of the year, mutated into a more infectious and nasty version causing the pandemic in northern Italy, and was exported from there across Europe and then to the United States. It may in turn have found its way back into China.



But does it matter what you call it? It's all just semantics. The biggest problem the US has faced since the beginning of the year is the sheer fact that the Federal Government has done exactly NOTHING about the virus. A global virus requires a centralized national focus and effort to contain it within a country. Instead, the screaming orange sphincter muscle decided to ignore it. He's admited as much publicly. 

https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...downplayed-covid-19-threat-says-woodward-book

And because of his "stupendous" handling of the pandemic, the death toll in the US according to Worldometers.com puts it at 273,072. And the number of cases is spiking at levels not yet seen even when it spiked back in April. Surely the number of deaths here is going to skyrocket. He was afraid of a panic? Really? He did nothing. He doesn't deserve to be president. He deserves to be behind bars charged with gross negligence in the handling of the pandemic. Let him serve prison terms for all the deaths his inaction caused.


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Dec 2020)

So, whilst it remains illegal to meet more than six people in a park, not only is it legal to meet 2,000 at a football game, you can get pissed up too.

Unbelievable. 

https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...be-allowed-alcohol-without-a-meal-in-stadiums


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## PK99 (1 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So, whilst it remains illegal to meet more than six people in a park, not only is it legal to meet 2,000 at a football game, you can get pissed up too.
> 
> Unbelievable.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...be-allowed-alcohol-without-a-meal-in-stadiums




_" but only if they are seated in concourses or hospitality areas."_

Most clubs I know do not have seating in concourses and 2000 evenly distributed around the ground (even a small lower division ground) is not "meeting 2000"

Why do so many here look to pick holes in, and put a negative spin, on every initiative?

Oh, I remember now! This is cycle chat!


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Dec 2020)

PK99 said:


> _" but only if they are seated in concourses or hospitality areas."_
> 
> Most clubs I know do not have seating in concourses and 2000 evenly distributed around the ground (even a small lower division ground) is not "meeting 2000"
> 
> ...



Putting 2000 people together at all seems very high risk compared to what else is allowed. Its massively higher risk than Parkrun, just for instance. 

Making it literally the only place in the country (save for Cornwall, Wight and Scilly) you can buy booze without a meal seems positively perverse. 

How on earth can this be justified when pubs can't open? It's totally out of kilter.


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## Ming the Merciless (1 Dec 2020)

They should not be allowed to serve alcohol on its own if the pubs can’t


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## nickyboy (1 Dec 2020)

Interesting that the daily death rates in the second wave in UK and Spain are significantly lower than in the first wave. They're a bit lower in France, about the same in Italy, and much higher in Germany

I'm not sure what conclusion to draw from these facts. Have UK, Spain and France done a much better job 2nd wave compared to 1st wave in stopping people becoming infected and/or treating those infected? Or has Germany got much worse at stopping its citizens becoming infected and/or treating them?

Can't compare case numbers 1st to 2nd wave as the testing regime is so different. But for sure fewer UK citizens are dying 2nd wave v 1st wave and the opposite is true of Germany


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## mjr (1 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I'm not sure what conclusion to draw from these facts. Have UK, Spain and France done a much better job 2nd wave compared to 1st wave in stopping people becoming infected and/or treating those infected? Or has Germany got much worse at stopping its citizens becoming infected and/or treating them?


Or, looking for the most obvious possible explanation, did a higher proportion of more-vulnerable people die in the first wave in UK, Spain and France so they're not around now to die a second time, while they may have survived the first wave in Germany?


Meanwhile, did Brits heed their glorious leader's exhortions to use lockdown to get fighting fit to fight off this virus? Did they heck! Despite the UK lockdown being weaker than most European countries save the Nordics, Brits were top lockdown bingers, says https://www.theguardian.com/society...re-the-lockdown-bingers-of-europe-finds-study


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## nickyboy (1 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Or, looking for the most obvious possible explanation, did a higher proportion of more-vulnerable people die in the first wave in UK, Spain and France so they're not around now to die a second time, while they may have survived the first wave in Germany



I did consider this but if you look at the numbers of "high risk" individuals in society and how many died in the first wave, it was actually a very small %...so a very large majority were alive entering the second wave and, thankfully, remain so. A fairly rudimentary statistical analysis shows that your assertion isn't correct. It may be a small contributory factor but it isn't a major one. It's something else

The bottom line is that UK is doing better 2nd wave v 1st wave and the opposite is true of Germany. Maybe the UK had caught up a bit with Germany's treatment methodologies. Maybe the UK lockdown/tier system is better than Germany's. Maybe Germany or UK has changed its counting methodologies. But it isn't down to the 1st wave killing all the susceptible UK population

I appreciate that this doesn't fit in with the persistent narrative in this thread but it's undeniable that UK is getting better at dealing with the pandemic whereas Germany is getting worse


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Dec 2020)

.


nickyboy said:


> The bottom line is that UK is doing better 2nd wave v 1st wave and the opposite is true of Germany.



I think the bottom line is that Germany has done better than us in both. 

2nd time around their track and trace has got overwhelmed, first time around they were harder with their lock down. 

Our track and trace is practically non existent.


----------



## PK99 (1 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I did consider this but if you look at the numbers of "high risk" individuals in society and how many died in the first wave, it was actually a very small %...so a very large majority were alive entering the second wave and, thankfully, remain so. A fairly rudimentary statistical analysis shows that your assertion isn't correct. It may be a small contributory factor but it isn't a major one. It's something else
> 
> The bottom line is that UK is doing better 2nd wave v 1st wave and the opposite is true of Germany. Maybe the UK had caught up a bit with Germany's treatment methodologies. Maybe the UK lockdown/tier system is better than Germany's. Maybe Germany or UK has changed its counting methodologies. But it isn't down to the 1st wave killing all the susceptible UK population
> 
> I appreciate that this doesn't fit in with the persistent narrative in this thread but it's undeniable that UK is getting better at dealing with the pandemic whereas Germany is getting worse



The Swedish epidemiologist said some months ago that summed over the inevitable sussessive waves he predicted the overall totals would be similar for most countries.


----------



## nickyboy (1 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> 
> I think the bottom line is that Germany has done better than us in both.
> ...


Yes they've done better. 1st wave by a large margin, 2nd wave by a small margin so far

My point isn't this. What I'm saying is that UK has done much better 2nd wave v 1st wave. The opposite is true of Germany


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Dec 2020)

PK99 said:


> The Swedish epidemiologist said some months ago that summed over the inevitable sussessive waves he predicted the overall totals would be similar for most countries.



Sweden had ~10x a many deaths as other Nordics 1st wave, same again 2nd wave.


----------



## mjr (1 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I did consider this but if you look at the numbers of "high risk" individuals in society and how many died in the first wave, it was actually a very small %...so a very large majority were alive entering the second wave and, thankfully, remain so. A fairly rudimentary statistical analysis shows that your assertion isn't correct. It may be a small contributory factor but it isn't a major one. It's something else


Can you show us this "rudimentary statistical analysis", please?


----------



## mjr (1 Dec 2020)

PK99 said:


> The Swedish epidemiologist said some months ago that summed over the inevitable sussessive waves he predicted the overall totals would be similar for most countries.


Is he the only epidemioloigst in the Sweden?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Is he the only epidemioloigst in the Sweden?



No, there are entire groups dissenting

https://vetcov19.se/en/om-oss/


----------



## nickyboy (1 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Can you show us this "rudimentary statistical analysis", please?


OK. It's a fact that the UK daily death rate in the 2nd wave is about half that of the 1st wave

Your idea is that the reason for this is because " a higher proportion of more-vulnerable people die in the first wave in UK, Spain and France so they're not around now to die a second time". The reason that the death rate is lower in the 2nd wave is because a lot died in the 1st wave

So let's look at the numbers. There are 2.2million UK citizens categorised as "High Risk" and recommended to shield. The total deaths in the fist wave was about 40,000 (we can argue the exact number but equally not all would have been high risk). This is 1.8% of those categorised "high risk". 

So when the 2nd wave hit, about 98 in 100 high risk individuals were still alive. The death rate in the second wave is about (but not exactly) half that of the first wave. But almost all the high risk people were alive at the start of the second wave (indeed now, 97 out of 100 are still alive). So your idea that the reason for a much lower daily death rate being down to a much smaller cohort of high risk individuals not being around for the second wave is just not correct (50%-ish lower daily death rate but only 2% lower numbers of high risk individuals)

Which means we are back to the fact that UK daily death rates in 2nd wave are lower than in the 1st wave and the opposite is true in Germany. I've postulated a few ideas why. You've suggested one idea, but as you can see above, it isn't correct


----------



## mjr (1 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I appreciate that this doesn't fit in with the persistent narrative in this thread but it's undeniable that UK is getting better at dealing with the pandemic whereas Germany is getting worse


Winding back a bit: is that even true? It doesn't look it to me, but have I misunderstood something about this claim? Germany's rate still looks lower to me.


----------



## Unkraut (2 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Which means we are back to the fact that UK daily death rates in 2nd wave are lower than in the 1st wave and the opposite is true in Germany.


I still maintain the official death rates in the UK and Germany are not comparing like with like. 

Some things have changed since the first wave, notably that in Germany the current wave is very considerably worse than the former, and inevitably the death rate will go up, notwithstanding increased provision and medical knowledge. Beds and equipment are not the problem, but a chronic shortage of ICU staff, something predating the current pandemic.

The population may have got a bit complacent over the summer, when the rates dropped very considerably. Momentum lost in developing tracking systems and the corona app, which is not that effective though widely downloaded.

Decision-making at federal and state (_Land_) level is beginning to slow down whilst compromises are sought, and swift, decisive action is essential if the virus is to be brought under some sort of control. In March they got on with it.

Testing has plateaued.

If you compare Germany with the SE Asian countries, as I saw done by a Vietnamese German a couple of days ago, then Germany would be at the bottom of the class. They have the virus under control, mostly because they instantly reacted to it when it appeared, and the populations follow the hygiene rules, distancing masking etc. They have the advantage of having a previous epidemic to learn from, and were better prepared. Some have avoided lockdowns altogether, mainly due to the discipline of the public (willing or otherwise depending on the country), and the excessive individualism of Europe in general and Britain in particular are not helping get things under control.


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## mjr (2 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> So let's look at the numbers. There are 2.2million UK citizens categorised as "High Risk" and recommended to shield. The total deaths in the fist wave was about 40,000 (we can argue the exact number but equally not all would have been high risk). This is 1.8% of those categorised "high risk".


So, the first problem with this argument I'll highlight, as you acknowledge, is that it assumes that the categorisation was accurate (despite the limited initial knowledge about covid-19) and that all first wave deaths were high risk.



> So your idea that the reason for a much lower daily death rate being down to a much smaller cohort of high risk individuals not being around for the second wave is just not correct (50%-ish lower daily death rate but only 2% lower numbers of high risk individuals)


And the second problem with this argument is a subtle rephrasing of the claim here. The claim was not that there were fewer individuals categorised by the government as "High Risk", but that those who were really most vulnerable to dying from it had already died.

So this argument does not really rebut the claim. It is an argument against a slightly different claim based on some questionable assumptions.

Personally, I do favour the idea put forward by @roubaixtuesday that a faltering test/track/trace programme is a key contributor,described in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-lost-control-of-tracing-as-infections-surge - but I also notice on https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-lockdowns/ that Germany's second lockdown was apparently not as strict as the UK's.


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## Adam4868 (2 Dec 2020)

Some good news to start the day.The UK regulator approves the use of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine - roll out starts next week!


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## nickyboy (2 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Winding back a bit: is that even true? It doesn't look it to me, but have I misunderstood something about this claim? Germany's rate still looks lower to me.
> View attachment 561226


You've misunderstood what I said. Go back and read it again

Germany's death rate in 2nd wave is higher than in the first wave...they have got worse at stopping their citizens from dying

UK's death rate (and Spain and France) in the 2nd wave is lower than in the first wave....they have got better at stopping their citizens from dying

All I'm trying to do is provide some balance to the narrative here that UK response is rubbish and countries like Germany's is really good. The facts don't support this. It was rubbish in the first wave (and equally Germany was really good). But in the second wave the responses are much closer (although Germany is still a bit better than UK)


----------



## nickyboy (2 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> And the second problem with this argument is a subtle rephrasing of the claim here. The claim was not that there were fewer individuals categorised by the government as "High Risk", but that those who were really most vulnerable to dying from it had already died.
> 
> So this argument does not really rebut the claim. It is an argument against a slightly different claim based on some questionable assumptions.


You said that the most obvious reason for a lower death rate now was because maybe the most vulnerable had already died

I've provided the best stats I can find (the 2.2m high risk shielded is an ONS number)

You're questioning that number

So go on, give us your alternative number (with source). Otherwise we have to use the ONS number, right?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (2 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> All I'm trying to do is provide some balance to the narrative here that UK response is rubbish and countries like Germany's is really good. The facts don't support this.



But the facts absolutely do support that.

As you point out, Germany has, to date, done much better in *both* waves. 

Sure, the gap is smaller wave 2, but even so, it's substantial, considerably less than half the number of deaths per capita in wave 2 in Germany. "Really good"? I'd certainly say so, relative to us.

All provisional of course, we don't know the end game yet.


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## nickyboy (2 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> But the facts absolutely do support that.
> 
> As you point out, Germany has, to date, done much better in *both* waves.
> 
> ...


Didn't say Germany has done much better in both waves. Have a read of what I said again.

In the first wave I'd give Germany 9/10 for their response and UK 1/10. But in the second wave I'd give Germany at most 6/10 and UK I would give 4/10

This is purely subjective of course but it's based on daily death rates so there is some logic to it. For sure, Germany responded way better in the first wave. But it seems the German and UK responses during the second wave are much more similar as UK has upped it's game somewhat, relative to Germany. Same can be said of Spain and, to a lesser extent, France


----------



## mjr (2 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I've provided the best stats I can find (the 2.2m high risk shielded is an ONS number)
> 
> You're questioning that number
> 
> So go on, give us your alternative number (with source). Otherwise we have to use the ONS number, right?


Wrong. We don't use the wrong number (high risk initial category size) just because we don't have the correct number (most vulnerable to dying of covid). We say we don't have the correct number and say the theory remains a possibility, for now.

In other news, Manchester businesses seem to be getting frustrated with the police and government about what's a substantial meal. https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/25/gian...tial-after-restaurant-told-to-close-13477808/


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## classic33 (2 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Wrong. We don't use the wrong number (high risk initial category size) just because we don't have the correct number (most vulnerable to dying of covid). We say we don't have the correct number and say the theory remains a possibility, for now.
> 
> In other news, Manchester businesses seem to be getting frustrated with the police and government about what's a substantial meal. https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/25/gian...tial-after-restaurant-told-to-close-13477808/


Where did you get the figures for the following idea from?
_"...those who were really most vulnerable to dying from it had already died."_

Did they die before or after, and what from?


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## mjr (2 Dec 2020)

classic33 said:


> Where did you get the figures for the following idea from?


I suggest His Grace checks what a theory (or more formally, a hypothesis) is, in any reputable dictionary.


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## classic33 (2 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> I suggest His Grace checks what a theory is, in any reputable dictionary.


A dictionary won't supply the source asked for, will it.


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## roubaixtuesday (2 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Didn't say Germany has done much better in both waves. Have a read of what I said again.
> 
> In the first wave I'd give Germany 9/10 for their response and UK 1/10. But in the second wave I'd give Germany at most 6/10 and UK I would give 4/10
> 
> This is purely subjective of course but it's based on daily death rates so there is some logic to it. For sure, Germany responded way better in the first wave. But it seems the German and UK responses during the second wave are much more similar as UK has upped it's game somewhat, relative to Germany. Same can be said of Spain and, to a lesser extent, France



Agree with all that, though if Germany is 6/10, UK is 2.5/10, based on deaths in 2nd wave to date.


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## Stephenite (2 Dec 2020)

News from across the North Sea.
A health centre worker has been sent to jail for 24 days for not following quarantine rules. She visited the UK three times and, each time, on return continued to work at the GPs office. She met 153 patients during this time. She had been advising patients correctly re travel/quarantine rules it seems.


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## nickyboy (2 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Wrong. We don't use the wrong number (high risk initial category size) just because we don't have the correct number (most vulnerable to dying of covid). We say we don't have the correct number and say the theory remains a possibility, for now.


Yup, I've given my hypothesis with ONS numbers to back it up and some basic maths to show the implications of the ONS numbers

You've given...well...err....your hypothesis. No numbers, no nothing

So I'll ask again. Show me evidence....any evidence at all, to back up your hypothesis that the reason for lower death rates in 2nd wave is because so many of the vulnerable died in 1st wave that they weren't around in the 2nd wave


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## mjr (2 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Yup, I've given my hypothesis with ONS numbers to back it up and some basic maths to show the implications of the ONS numbers


No, the ONS numbers and maths don't back up your hypothesis. They don't back up mine either, of course, but that doesn't make it a choice between two things that we can't prove or disprove: we could both be wrong!



> So I'll ask again. Show me evidence....any evidence at all, to back up your hypothesis that the reason for lower death rates in 2nd wave is because so many of the vulnerable died in 1st wave that they weren't around in the 2nd wave


And I'll tell you again that the evidence isn't available yet.

Reflecting it back at you: show me evidence.... any evidence at all, to back up your hypothesis "that UK is doing better 2nd wave v 1st wave and the opposite is true of Germany".

The UK death rate peaking at a lower number in the 2nd wave (assuming it has actually peaked now) doesn't support the first part of the statement because the growth phase of the 2nd wave has so far killed about 18,000 people, whereas the growth phase of the 1st wave killed about 13,000 people - a smaller total death toll because the 1st wave's rise was shorter in time, lasting only about a month, instead of between two and two and a half months this wave. If only Mr Dither had locked down earlier, or the first Tiers had contained measures that worked...

The UK 2nd wave could still end up less deadly overall if death rates fall on a similar trajectory because we're starting from a lower peak, but the "Merry Christmas and a Happy New Covid" plan seems likely to prevent that.


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## nickyboy (2 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> No, the ONS numbers and maths don't back up your hypothesis. They don't back up mine either, of course, but that doesn't make it a choice between two things that we can't prove or disprove: we could both be wrong!
> 
> 
> And I'll tell you again that the evidence isn't available yet.
> ...


Science and maths ain't your strong suit. All I'll say is that sometimes it pays to look at the facts clearly, rather than through the rather opaque lens of political dogma


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## deptfordmarmoset (2 Dec 2020)

During the No.10 Coronafest Conference this afternoon, 2 journalists asked the same question (the 2nd, apparently because he hadn't heard the first): is this British first to get the vaccine a Brexit bonus. Twice Johnson said the credit was elsewhere. This was after that Hot Mancack liar claimed Brexit helped get the vaccine approved early. Nadine Dorries, a junior health minister, also attempted to perpetuate this lie.

I would never expect Hancock to avoid a propaganda lie - I don't think he's capable of that - but it does feel strange to have Johnson telling the truth.


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## mjr (2 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Science and maths ain't your strong suit. All I'll say is that sometimes it pays to look at the facts clearly, rather than through the rather opaque lens of political dogma


I'm a former maths lecturer and member of no political party, but that was a pretty good sidestepping of the request for any evidence for your hypothesis that the UK has done better in the second wave despite somehow killing about 40% more people in the pre-peak phase.


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## Wobblers (3 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Interesting that the daily death rates in the second wave in UK and Spain are significantly lower than in the first wave. They're a bit lower in France, about the same in Italy, and much higher in Germany
> 
> I'm not sure what conclusion to draw from these facts. Have UK, Spain and France done a much better job 2nd wave compared to 1st wave in stopping people becoming infected and/or treating those infected? Or has Germany got much worse at stopping its citizens becoming infected and/or treating them?
> 
> Can't compare case numbers 1st to 2nd wave as the testing regime is so different. But for sure fewer UK citizens are dying 2nd wave v 1st wave and the opposite is true of Germany



There seems to be two factors behind the lower deaths in the UK and Spain this time round. The first is that we're getting better at treating people with Covid, so survival is more likely. The good Doctor behind Medcram looked at this a while ago: his video does an excellent job of covering the issue by discussing the medical papers published on CV19 survival rates.

The second factor is demographics. The first wave affected older and more vulnerable people particularly badly - with the obvious appalling results. This time round, it's been a younger demographic that have been catching the illness, especially those aged 20-35. Infection rates in the old have remained lower. Again, there's a Medcram video on this very topic, where they look at the data from the European Centre for Disease Control. (I make absolutely no apologies for adding two links to the same channel: a youtube channel where they actually have links to proper published data and clinical journals? It's unheard of!) Probably we've got better at shielding the more vulnerable, having learned from what happened in too many care homes back in spring.


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## mjr (3 Dec 2020)

McWobble said:


> There seems to be two factors behind the lower deaths in the UK and Spain this time round.


How do you figure out there are lower deaths in the UK this time round? Peak rate is lower but total deaths is higher so far.


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## MrGrumpy (3 Dec 2020)

I think it was reference to the second peak not the overall death rate


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## matticus (3 Dec 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1334543848333332482?s=19


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## All uphill (3 Dec 2020)

matticus said:


> View: https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1334543848333332482?s=19



Translated (in my mind): "Chums, do whatever you want. Rules are for the little people."


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## Adam4868 (3 Dec 2020)

WTF is high value travellers ? Will I be ok on Ryanair with just hand luggage.


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## deptfordmarmoset (3 Dec 2020)

No rules for the rich, misrule for the rest.


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## DCLane (3 Dec 2020)

matticus said:


> View: https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1334543848333332482?s=19




What's a 'high value' traveller? A millionaire? Me? 

It _seems_ to be these, which is a very different list, but the tweet's extremely poorly phrased: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...les#jobs-that-qualify-for-travel-exemptions-1


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## Wobblers (4 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> How do you figure out there are lower deaths in the UK this time round? Peak rate is lower but total deaths is higher so far.



?

Over 40,000 fatalities in the first wave. Half that (so far) in this one. 

Plus the clinical evidence - _published_ clinical evidence - showing that better treatment has lowered the case fatality rate. Then there's the evidence that it's younger people who're catching it. Better treatment and a less vulnerable population will inevitably lead to fewer deaths.

Though I expect fatalities to remain quite high, because I'm not convinced that this new and improved tier system will be particularly effective. Coupled with the easing of restrictions over Christmas, it's sadly likely that we'll see a third peak in mid-January.


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## matticus (4 Dec 2020)

When did the 2nd wave start? What defines a "peak"?


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## marinyork (4 Dec 2020)

matticus said:


> When did the 2nd wave start? What defines a "peak"?
> 
> View attachment 561514



It's subjective. I would say it started in September here, but it did take a long while to really get going. Scarily enough in Italy and Germany it seems to have come later and in Italy's case very fast.

In countries like Iran and the US with large surges within a wave you're always going to get discussions.


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## matticus (4 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's subjective. I would say it started in September here, but it did take a long while to really get going. Scarily enough in Italy and Germany it seems to have come later and in Italy's case very fast.
> 
> In countries like Iran and the US with large surges within a wave you're always going to get discussions.


So august deaths are all counted in the "First Wave" tally? I just want to be clear on this before I read anyone's arguments!


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## mjr (4 Dec 2020)

McWobble said:


> ?
> 
> Over 40,000 fatalities in the first wave. Half that (so far) in this one.


Comparing the whole first wave with a just-peaking second seems wrong.



> Plus the clinical evidence - _published_ clinical evidence - showing that better treatment has lowered the case fatality rate.


Lower rate. Not necessarily fewer deaths in total.


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## mjr (4 Dec 2020)

Even retailers realise Sunak's bung is wrong and offer to pay most of their property taxes: https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ands-back-440m-in-covid-business-rates-relief


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## raleighnut (4 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Even retailers realise Sunak's bung is wrong and offer to pay most of their property taxes: https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ands-back-440m-in-covid-business-rates-relief


Yep well played to them, they didn't have to close down in the restrictions and in fact probably saw a greater 'footfall' during it. As well it takes away the prospect of them being derided for taking advantage of the situation. 

Edited due to a tying error (I pressed r instead of e)


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## matticus (4 Dec 2020)

matticus said:


> When did the 2nd wave start? What defines a "peak"?
> 
> View attachment 561514


If (big IF) we get numbers right down by end of December, then there's a big upsurge in Jan, is that a 3rd wave? Or just the 2nd wave really "getting going"?


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## marinyork (4 Dec 2020)

matticus said:


> So august deaths are all counted in the "First Wave" tally? I just want to be clear on this before I read anyone's arguments!



Yes, that's one classification. Another would be earlier.

You're not going to get people to agree. Heck there were plenty of people saying there wouldn't be a second wave, or if there was it'd be small and so not really a wave.

The third peak reference is not really semantics, it's carefully said by mcwobble. We're lucky and got a vaccine slightly earlier than expected (in small numbers). A politician saying a third wave is problematic as it suggests ooh 'lockdown' and christmas coming, vaccine and all that it's going to disappear and then come back for a third wave and it inevitably surprising some out there.


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## roubaixtuesday (4 Dec 2020)

I think there's a huge danger of a massive upsurge in January through to April.

Firstly, it's peak season for respiratory infections anyway.

Secondly, it'll be kicked of by our "Give granny a hug and a virus" policy at Christmas.

Thirdly, lockdown fatigue is well and truly upon us. "Fucj this, I've had enough" will drive more mixing.

Fourthly, as people get vaccinated, they'll tend to drop distancing

And finally, as that relaxation becomes more visible, everyone else will follow suit.

It's hard to see a way through this without several months with grim levels of casualties. "Great British Common Sense" seems to be our main hope...


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## marinyork (4 Dec 2020)

matticus said:


> If (big IF) we get numbers right down by end of December, then there's a big upsurge in Jan, is that a 3rd wave? Or just the 2nd wave really "getting going"?



The second wave having a massive surge. Sadly numbers probably won't go down low enough in December to classify it as a separate wave. That's just not likely to happen.


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## deptfordmarmoset (4 Dec 2020)

matticus said:


> If (big IF) we get numbers right down by end of December, then there's a big upsurge in Jan, is that a 3rd wave? Or just the 2nd wave really "getting going"?


If it looks like 3 waves on a graph, 3 waves is good enough as a metaphor for me. And a peak is 'owt wi' summat of a summit.


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## deptfordmarmoset (4 Dec 2020)

I caught a short covid-19 update from Tim Spector yesterday. He said that though the survey app is self-reporting it tracks well with the ONS figures (though, logically, it's the ONS doing the tracking because their figures are a few days behind the app's.) They're publishing these results in the Lancet today.

Also, preliminary results from a vitamin supplement questionnaire, indicate that garlic has no benefit whatsoever, but multivitamins and vitamin D did show some slightly increased resistance to CV-19 in women. No benefit for men.

Added: Lancet link


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## mjr (4 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Also, preliminary results from a vitamin supplement questionnaire, indicate that garlic has no benefit whatsoever, but multivitamins and vitamin D did show some slightly increased resistance to CV-19 in women. No benefit for men.


Multivitamins were missing from shelves of one pharmacy and three supermarkets I've visited in the last two weeks (three because Xmas pud fruit also in short supply this year). I take vitamins in winter due to another illness so I don't let them get too low before restocking, but they're not usually missing for more than one shop visit.

Could we go back to talking up bleach instead please? There is loads of that around.


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## deptfordmarmoset (4 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Multivitamins were missing from shelves of one pharmacy and three supermarkets I've visited in the last two weeks (three because Xmas pud fruit also in short supply this year). I take vitamins in winter due to another illness so I don't let them get too low before restocking, but they're not usually missing for more than one shop visit.
> 
> Could we go back to talking up bleach instead please? There is loads of that around.


I was disappointed that vitamin D doesn't appear to help because I've recently added them to my daily pile of morning meds. 

Lancet link (on the self-reporting app's relationship to ONS and others' data.)


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## marinyork (4 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I was disappointed that vitamin D doesn't appear to help because I've recently added them to my daily pile of morning meds.
> 
> Lancet link (on the self-reporting app's relationship to ONS and others' data.)



Vitamin D is something the BMA has recommended all adults take October -March in the UK for quite a while now.


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## deptfordmarmoset (4 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Vitamin D is something the BMA has recommended all adults take October -March in the UK for quite a while now.


This is the link: https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vitamins-reduce-covid-risk


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## deptfordmarmoset (4 Dec 2020)

And if your house is in Harrogate but your garden is in Leeds....https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uples-house-in-different-covid-tier-to-garden


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## DCLane (4 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And if your house is in Harrogate but your garden is in Leeds....https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uples-house-in-different-covid-tier-to-garden



The entrance is in Tier 3 so a fuss over nothing.

A friend's house has half in Northern Ireland and half in the Republic: it depends which door you go in / come out of.


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## mjr (4 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And if your house is in Harrogate but your garden is in Leeds....https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uples-house-in-different-covid-tier-to-garden


The law drafters saw that one coming: if it straddles a boundary, the whole property goes into the more restrictive tier.

Famously, there's a restaurant in Tydd Gote, or rather, half of a restaurant. The rest of it is over the county boundary. This used to have amusing consequences for alcohol licensing, but that's mostly a thing of the past now too. Of course, some smart buttock in Tier 3 South Holland wondered if they could exploit this for easier drinking in Tier 2 Fenland without technically leaving their village... nope!


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## marinyork (4 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And if your house is in Harrogate but your garden is in Leeds....https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uples-house-in-different-covid-tier-to-garden



It's a great story, but it's not difficult. They live in their house and not their garden. They are travelling to their garden from a tier 3 to a tier 2 area so the rules carry with them. They aren't allowed to meet people and guardian knows that perfectly well.

If the areas were divided into smaller and smaller areas they'd be way more of the villages cut in half stories.


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## mjr (4 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's a great story, but it's not difficult. They live in their house and not their garden. They are travelling to their garden from a tier 3 to a tier 2 area so the rules carry with them. [...]


Surely their whole house and garden is one "place" in the regulations, because that's why we were allowed unrestrictedly into our gardens during lockdown?

Complete non-story. It would be more of a story if their allotment was in Tier 2, but even then, for the reasons you give, it's not much of one. Newspaper shoot stirring is not helpful. There's enough examples of councils advertising the restrictions incorrectly (Norfolk's council adverts have so far implied that takeaway alcohol sales aren't allowed, that 6 people can't sit outside a cafe, that only "essential exercise" is allowed, and some other goofs I forget), that they could have plenty to criticise without bothering with non-stories like this.


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## Adam4868 (4 Dec 2020)

DCLane said:


> The entrance is in Tier 3 so a fuss over nothing.
> 
> A friend's house has half in Northern Ireland and half in the Republic: it depends which door you go in / come out of.


All my partners family live on the invisible border,although I'd change the door for tunnel 😁


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## marinyork (4 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Surely their whole house and garden is one "place" in the regulations, because that's why we were allowed unrestrictedly into our gardens during lockdown?



They are allowed unrestrictedly into their gardens. It's just whether they are allowed anyone else from outside who isn't a bubble/childcare bubble/christmas bubble/fisherprice bubble. Figures out today they may be in this situation for a bit longer. 

One of my friends said yesterday having more or less kept to rules since March it's getting torn up at Christmas.


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## DCLane (4 Dec 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> All my partners family live on the invisible border,although I'd change the door for tunnel 😁



My father-in-law's from Cavan but lives in the north, so he flies a tricolour at his house.

Knowing which back roads the border posts _weren't_ on when they existed mean doors and tunnels weren't needed  . I'm hoping they don't return.


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## deptfordmarmoset (4 Dec 2020)

DCLane said:


> The entrance is in Tier 3 so a fuss over nothing.
> 
> A friend's house has half in Northern Ireland and half in the Republic: it depends which door you go in / come out of.





marinyork said:


> It's a great story, but it's not difficult. They live in their house and not their garden. They are travelling to their garden from a tier 3 to a tier 2 area so the rules carry with them. They aren't allowed to meet people and guardian knows that perfectly well.
> 
> If the areas were divided into smaller and smaller areas they'd be way more of the villages cut in half stories.


Taken by the political geography, their house is in tier 2, their garden in tier 3, so it's the other way round. Though if @mjr is correct, the house and garden will both be treated as within tier 3.


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## mjr (4 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> They are allowed unrestrictedly into their gardens. It's just whether they are allowed anyone else from outside who isn't a bubble/childcare bubble/christmas bubble/fisherprice bubble. Figures out today they may be in this situation for a bit longer.


Christmas bauble, please!

And no, Tier 3 applies to the whole property. ("For the purposes of this Part of this Schedule, a gathering takes place in the Tier 3 area if any part of the place where it takes place is in the Tier 3 area." - https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1374/schedule/3/paragraph/1/made )

Sorry to hear about the figures. I don't usually look until the evening. Newspapers here have been talking up Norfolk moving to Tier 1 but I just don't see that happening this year, and I'm not sure if Suffolk alone will get relaxed because there will be questions about whether that's mainly because of a certain MP of theirs and they've so many border towns (Lowestoft, Beccles, Bungay, Eye, Brandon, Mildenhall, Newmarket, Haverhill, Sudbury, Felixstowe and even Ipswich is only 9 miles from the boundary) that it might become a shoot show of rule-breaking and probably infections if they're surrounded by Tier 2 areas.



marinyork said:


> One of my friends said yesterday having more or less kept to rules since March it's getting torn up at Christmas.


Yeah. I think some people have changed their minds following yesterday's announcement that fat cats are exempt from travel restrictions from tomorrow.


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## Adam4868 (4 Dec 2020)

DCLane said:


> My father-in-law's from Cavan but lives in the north, so he flies a tricolour at his house.
> 
> Knowing which back roads the border posts _weren't_ on when they existed mean doors and tunnels weren't needed  . I'm hoping they don't return.


Been round there quite a few times,,I'll miss not going this Xmas.The Ring of Gullion/Sleive Gullion,the Mournes are some of my favourite places to cycle/walk.There from Newry and the surrounding areas...bandit country ! 
Sorry for the thread deflection ,😁


----------



## marinyork (4 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Sorry to hear about the figures. I don't usually look until the evening. Newspapers here have been talking up Norfolk moving to Tier 1 but I just don't see that happening this year, and I'm not sure if Suffolk alone will get relaxed because there will be questions about whether that's mainly because of a certain MP of theirs and they've so many border towns (Lowestoft, Beccles, Bungay, Eye, Brandon, Mildenhall, Newmarket, Haverhill, Sudbury, Felixstowe and even Ipswich is only 9 miles from the boundary) that it might become a shoot show of rule-breaking and probably infections if they're surrounded by Tier 2 areas.
> 
> Yeah. I think some people have changed their minds following yesterday's announcement that fat cats are exempt from travel restrictions from tomorrow.



I can't see many areas moving into tier 2 in the middle of December. For politics/Boris morale/conservative party politics I wouldn't rule out some areas doing so, a token gesture.

I've mostly given up watching the news, but I do get a bit of things like The Jeremy Vine show and fed up of endless complaints about Kent. Mind you endless nonsense written about both Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire here. So it's much better that this time we're all in the same tier.


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## pawl (4 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> They are allowed unrestrictedly into their gardens. It's just whether they are allowed anyone else from outside who isn't a bubble/childcare bubble/christmas bubble/fisherprice bubble. Figures out today they may be in this situation for a bit longer.
> 
> One of my friends said yesterday having more or less kept to rules since March it's getting torn up at Christmas.




Exactly as me and Mrs P have done As for the Christmas bubble it will remain at six


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## DCLane (4 Dec 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Been round there quite a few times,,I'll miss not going this Xmas.The Ring of Gullion/Sleive Gullion,the Mournes are some of my favourite places to cycle/walk.There from Newry and the surrounding areas...bandit country !
> Sorry for the thread deflection ,😁



If you've done the Mournes down into Rostrevor you'll have been past their house. Nice area and a lot 'quieter' than when I first started visiting in 1990


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## Adam4868 (4 Dec 2020)

DCLane said:


> If you've done the Mournes down into Rostrevor you'll have been past their house. Nice area and a lot 'quieter' than when I first started visiting in 1990


Know it well,sister in law lives in Burren/Warren point.


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## classic33 (5 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> And if your house is in Harrogate but your garden is in Leeds....https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uples-house-in-different-covid-tier-to-garden


A bit like Todmorden Town Hall and a few houses along with it, prior to April Fools Day in 74.


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## classic33 (5 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Christmas bauble, please!
> 
> And no, Tier 3 applies to the whole property. ("For the purposes of this Part of this Schedule, a gathering takes place in the Tier 3 area if any part of the place where it takes place is in the Tier 3 area." - https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1374/schedule/3/paragraph/1/made )
> 
> ...


The house is treated as being in a seperate area. There's a few houses locally that are in two boroughs, property wise. Owners were in the same position when there were different restrictions in place in either borough.

The county boundary has caused problems in Otley all ready. But both councils respect it.


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## gavgav (5 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Putting 2000 people together at all seems very high risk compared to what else is allowed. Its massively higher risk than Parkrun, just for instance.
> 
> Making it literally the only place in the country (save for Cornwall, Wight and Scilly) you can buy booze without a meal seems positively perverse.
> 
> How on earth can this be justified when pubs can't open? It's totally out of kilter.


How is it more risky, if Covid protocols are in place? I attended my first football game, for 9 months on Friday and felt far safer than on my weekly trip to the supermarket.


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## Dave7 (5 Dec 2020)

A young family friend (mid 50s) got Covid some months ago. Been in hospital ever since and sadly just died.
This virus is a real b*stard. Its totally wrecked my year but at least I am still here.


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## roubaixtuesday (6 Dec 2020)

Cases up today, and flat over the last week. 

Pictures of crowded shopping centres everywhere. 

Christmas relaxing of rules coming - and looking increasingly like an awful mistake. 

I hope it's just a blip, but for my money no chance of anywhere dropping tiers (unless for political expediency), and high likelihood of significant rise of cases and deaths into the new year.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/


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## DCLane (6 Dec 2020)

Some people are simply being stupid - crowding in shops and events. They clearly haven't learnt from the first and second shut-downs. Utter morons.


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## mjr (7 Dec 2020)

DCLane said:


> Some people are simply being stupid - crowding in shops and events. They clearly haven't learnt from the first and second shut-downs. Utter morons.


Not unique to England. Here's Germany's Daily Show making fun of the Economy and Energy Minister saying that "Shopping Is Your Patriotic Duty" after scenes of overcrowded pedestrian shopping zones in major cities...





The presenter did also comment on it being the first time they've ever seen that guy with a bike!


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## pawl (7 Dec 2020)

DCLane said:


> Some people are simply being stupid - crowding in shops and events. They clearly haven't learnt from the first and second shut-downs. Utter morons.




Did you see the photos of that mob out side HarrodsPolice arrested four


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## rockyroller (7 Dec 2020)

saw this plot the other day & the drop off after the New Year was striking






https://www.smithsonianmag.com/scie...pandemic-1918-and-covid-19-caution-180975040/


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## mjr (7 Dec 2020)

Discussed on BBC More or Less podcast, here's a geographic calculator of the risk of a gathering containing someone with the virus: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/?global


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## Julia9054 (7 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Discussed on BBC More or Less podcast, here's a geographic calculator of the risk of a gathering containing someone with the virus: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/?global


Interesting. A gathering of 25 in North Yorkshire has a risk of containing someone with the virus of between 16 and 30 percent.
I attend between 4 and 6 of those a day.


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## roubaixtuesday (7 Dec 2020)

UK cases remain static week on week with today's numbers

Looks pretty clear on nationwide average basis the decline has now stopped, and not just a blip, though there's a huge amount of regional variation within that.

Given that the effects of lockdown removal will most likely not yet be reflected at all in those (incubation period), and anecdotally there's been a surge in retail and other activity, it would be very surprising if we don't see an accelerating rise towards Christmas and then a further acceleration beyond, I fear.

We can probably expect within a couple of weeks the UK govt to be faced with the same issues that the Welsh govt has today.

Action needed now IMO - all our learning is that delay makes it worse rather than better.

Stop a pre vaccine surge! Cancel Christmas!

[obviously grossly amateur "analysis" and broad brush thoughts. I hope I'm wrong and have missed something obvious]


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## Bazzer (7 Dec 2020)

Personally, I am expecting a spike in cases post Christmas and possibly as quickly as the New Year, with the consequence of more lockdown. It has repeatedly been seen that some of the population cannot behave. Add into the mix, entering into what many seem to consider a period of getting hammered, I don't see any reason for optimism.
Closer personal experience also doesn't give me cause to taking a glass half full attitude either.-
In the last 2 weeks:
A classroom assistant at child 1's school turning up at school despite showing symptoms! Covid test confirmed positive. That meant child 1 (assistant head teacher and head of maths), several other members of staff and a number of children, in isolation for 14 days.
Child 2 at university, had a fellow student in her block had tested positive on Saturday. (Students are supposed to have stayed in their own groups, but mysteriously, no others in the infected person's group have tested positive). The university's response- send her home.


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## roubaixtuesday (7 Dec 2020)

Bazzer said:


> A classroom assistant at child 1's school turning up at school despite showing symptoms!



The absolute unfettered stupidity of the human race never ceases to amaze me. 

A friend of ours is a postdoc bioscientist, married to an actual professor of virology. 

Their youngest had mild symptoms so she took him for a test. Meanwhile, the rest of the family went to meet up with their elderly parents for a weeks holiday. Test done, she decided it probably wasn't COVID, so the pair took the train across the country. Holiday commenced, the test came back positive 48 hrs later. Everyone drives home to isolate. Thankfully, no-one else positive. 

Writing this I know it sounds utterly, insanely unlikely. I promise you it's true.


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## MntnMan62 (7 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The absolute unfettered stupidity of the human race never ceases to amaze me.
> 
> A friend of ours is a postdoc bioscientist, married to an actual professor of virology.
> 
> ...



You are describing countless imbecilic morons in the US. Stupidity is running rampant.


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## Ming the Merciless (7 Dec 2020)

You see it every day with dog walkers. They have no concept of what social distancing means. Stupidity of the highest order.


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## deptfordmarmoset (7 Dec 2020)

Figures are slowly dropping here, according to the Zoe app. Lowest since 18 October. (Total estimated active cases.)


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## Ming the Merciless (7 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Figures are slowly dropping here, according to the Zoe app. Lowest since 18 October. (Total estimated active cases.)
> View attachment 562193



Thanks for this, reminded me to report how m doing today


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## mjr (8 Dec 2020)

After Canada suffers a post Thanksgiving surge and worries about Xmas, a Canadian provincial premier tells it like it is, 2min 30 in:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ4n31gL3lU&t=150


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> After Canada suffers a post Thanksgiving surge and worries about Xmas, a Canadian provincial premier tells it like it is, 2min 30 in:
> 
> View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ4n31gL3lU&t=150




What a contrast to Johnson


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## raleighnut (8 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What a contrast to Johnson


Not to mention the Donald.


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## roubaixtuesday (8 Dec 2020)

raleighnut said:


> Not to mention the Donald.



Got enough of our own mess to clean up without thinking about anyone else's...


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## IaninSheffield (8 Dec 2020)

'Ay, there's the rub'


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## Beebo (10 Dec 2020)

My daughter’s entire school was closed on Monday until after Christmas due to a major outbreak. 
We also received a positive result for her so the entire family are in isolation lockdown.
Her symptoms are very mild and were it not for the school shutting we probably wouldn’t have bothered to get her tested.
We are now waiting to see how the rest of us get on. 
My prediction is that the reduced Christmas restrictions are going to end very badly as children can carry the virus silently.


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## fossyant (10 Dec 2020)

Anyone recon London will hit T3 ? Doubt it, nor will GM come out of T3 next week, despite it's rates being lower than London.


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## fossyant (10 Dec 2020)

Beebo said:


> My daughter’s entire school was closed on Monday until after Christmas due to a major outbreak.
> We also received a positive result for her so the entire family are in isolation lockdown.
> Her symptoms are very mild and were it not for the school shutting we probably wouldn’t have bothered to get her tested.
> We are now waiting to see how the rest of us get on.
> My prediction is that the reduced Christmas restrictions are going to end very badly as children can carry the virus silently.



That's rubbish for you all.


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## Beebo (10 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> Anyone recon London will hit T3 ? Doubt it, nor will GM come out of T3 next week, despite it's rates being lower than London.


London has to go into tier 3 or it will be carnage after Christmas. We are in Bexley, the borough which borders Kent. The rates are shockingly high.


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## fossyant (10 Dec 2020)

Beebo said:


> London has to go into tier 3 or it will be carnage after Christmas. We are in Bexley, the borough which borders Kent. The rates are shockingly high.



But are Boris and 'the boys' brave enough to do it. We're below 100 where I live now, and we've been in restrictions since July. It's hard on those areas where infection is low, and Essex etc are only just experiencing this - areas of very high infection, and areas with very low.


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## deptfordmarmoset (10 Dec 2020)

Beebo said:


> My daughter’s entire school was closed on Monday until after Christmas due to a major outbreak.
> We also received a positive result for her so the entire family are in isolation lockdown.
> Her symptoms are very mild and were it not for the school shutting we probably wouldn’t have bothered to get her tested.
> We are now waiting to see how the rest of us get on.
> My prediction is that the reduced Christmas restrictions are going to end very badly as children can carry the virus silently.


My daughter's kids in Bexleyheath just went back. The dep head had taught almost the whole school before testing positive! Only two years stayed open.


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## marinyork (10 Dec 2020)

Beebo said:


> London has to go into tier 3 or it will be carnage after Christmas. We are in Bexley, the borough which borders Kent. The rates are shockingly high.



Public health wise it has to go into tier 3 sadly.

Politically I think Boris will do everything he can to stop it going into tier 3.


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## marinyork (10 Dec 2020)

Bumped into an old acquaintance. Father (GP) has had long covid for 8 months now. He is somewhere in the moderate end of symptoms.


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## mjr (10 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Public health wise it has to go into tier 3 sadly.
> 
> Politically I think Boris will do everything he can to stop it going into tier 3.


Yes, case numbers and growth make it look like London should be regraded to head off growth. Are hospital occupancy rates published anywhere easy to follow? That's another key measure they use.

But also yes, the economic, social and political consequences of telling Londoners to stay in their own rather small boroughs and of increasing the discouragement of residents of nearby Tier 2 commuter belt from going into London, right before Christmas, is likely to make Mr Dither-and-Delay do what that name suggests, despite the likely contribution to the death toll


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## roubaixtuesday (10 Dec 2020)

Over 20,000 cases today. 

Without focusing too much on a single day. it's unsurprising figures, already flat, now look to be clearly rising with lock down over and shops packed.

Back in February the doubling time was just 3 days. Could easily see the same over Christmas if people relax things and lots of gatherings. We'd have 80,000 a day by New Year, 2,000 deaths daily to follow.

Stay home this Christmas ccers. 

The most vulnerable will be safe by Easter.


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## marinyork (10 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Yes, case numbers and growth make it look like London should be regraded to head off growth. Are hospital occupancy rates published anywhere easy to follow? That's another key measure they use.
> 
> But also yes, the economic, social and political consequences of telling Londoners to stay in their own rather small boroughs and of increasing the discouragement of residents of nearby Tier 2 commuter belt from going into London, right before Christmas, is likely to make Mr Dither-and-Delay do what that name suggests, despite the likely contribution to the death toll



I've stopped watching the news, well down by about 90%. My understanding is the hospital side of things is growing rapidly for London.

Aside from the other four metrics PHE use, which I'm aware of, one of the reasons I think London should be tier 3 is because it neighbours other tier 3 areas which are of great concern.


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## midlife (10 Dec 2020)

Probably over twice the number of infections than expected, I guess the hospitals are re-activating their staff redeployment hubs and preparing to divert staff from planned and routine work


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## MntnMan62 (10 Dec 2020)

There is a pretty active thread on a local page of FB for my community about the merits or flaws of sending kids to school. Some have said that so few kids get Covid and many are struggling with at home online schooling that they should be back in school. My own opinion is that while only 1.2% of Covid related deaths are children, studies have found that children are a major factor in community spread. They may not have the virus but they are carriers and they bring the virus home and spread it to their family members. Here in the US many hospitals are nearing or have reached over 90% of capacity. And it hasn't peaked yet. Numbers of cases are still rising which means hospitalizations will continue to rise. That will put people who are gravely ill from other issues at risk of receiving less than the best care and treatment. So, even if someone doesn't have Covid, their death could very well be related to Covid now. Sending children to school now is foolish, selfish and totally blind to reality.


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## Ming the Merciless (10 Dec 2020)

Oh kids get and spread the virus alright , they just tend to be at the milder end symptoms wise.


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## Julia9054 (10 Dec 2020)

45% of our school are currently self isolating or the year group is closed. There are so many positive cases - kids and staff - that I have lost count. The Head has had a meeting with Public Health England who have told him that this is perfectly normal for a large urban secondary school. He has been told that he is not allowed to shut and move learning online for the last week. And now i read that they are rolling out mass testing for schools - in London and Essex only. Sod the North as usual.


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## deptfordmarmoset (10 Dec 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> There is a pretty active thread on a local page of FB for my community about the merits or flaws of sending kids to school. Some have said that so few kids get Covid and many are struggling with at home online schooling that they should be back in school. My own opinion is that while only 1.2% of Covid related deaths are children, studies have found that children are a major factor in community spread. They may not have the virus but they are carriers and they bring the virus home and spread it to their family members. Here in the US many hospitals are nearing or have reached over 90% of capacity. And it hasn't peaked yet. Numbers of cases are still rising which means hospitalizations will continue to rise. That will put people who are gravely ill from other issues at risk of receiving less than the best care and treatment. So, even if someone doesn't have Covid, their death could very well be related to Covid now. Sending children to school now is foolish, selfish and totally blind to reality.


I have to agree with you on this. The political thinking is couched as being for their future, but spreading misery around their family is no future worth having. They are spreaders - innocent but spreaders nevertheless - and the age and number of hospitalised goes slowly and inexorably upward. The potential to exacerbate the spreading over Christmas (and your Thanksgiving) is enormous.


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## fossyant (10 Dec 2020)

What a joke.... T3 London now....


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## raleighnut (10 Dec 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> There is a pretty active thread on a local page of FB for my community about the merits or flaws of sending kids to school. Some have said that so few kids get Covid and many are struggling with at home online schooling that they should be back in school. My own opinion is that while only 1.2% of Covid related deaths are children, studies have found that children are a major factor in community spread. They may not have the virus but they are carriers and they bring the virus home and spread it to their family members. Here in the US many hospitals are nearing or have reached over 90% of capacity. And it hasn't peaked yet. Numbers of cases are still rising which means hospitalizations will continue to rise. That will put people who are gravely ill from other issues at risk of receiving less than the best care and treatment. So, even if someone doesn't have Covid, their death could very well be related to Covid now. Sending children to school now is foolish, selfish and totally blind to reality.


Kids could catch upeasily if the tutors are prepared to put the work in.


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## marinyork (10 Dec 2020)

The joke with London is in March, when a lot less was known about covid and what works and doesn't, the government thought about things for a week and a half deciding not to shut things down in the M25. 9 months on and they are there again.

The hypocrisy is all the fecking politicians live there, so they don't want it. 

It also shows you they think the lateral flow tests work to bring transmission down a lot. Giving the schools in 7 boroughs them.


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## Unkraut (11 Dec 2020)

The situation here remains serious. Record number of new infections today, and although the lockdown lite stopped the rapid increase in infections, they have plateaued and are not coming down. The country has long since lost control of the situation, especially with tracking.

There will be a special meeting of all the states (Länder) with the chancellor on Sunday to agree new measures, although some have jumped the gun due to the urgency of the situation (Saxony, for example). In some hotspots the hospitals have reached maximum capacity with intensive care, and non-essential operations have been postponed. 

The Irish are now seen as an example to follow. They have successfully dealt with a similar level of infections. The only real question is will a hard lockdown apply before Christmas or after it. Personally I think before would be better, it might save lives and will do less damage to the economy as things generally run down over the Christmas period anyway.

Normal shopping and celebrating Christmas are almost certainly no longer tenable. The Bürgermeister of Berlin gave an emotional speech today saying 'how many lives is it worth so I can enjoy a shopping experience'.

The rule of maximum of 5 people from 2 households will continue be imposed, the level of contact has got to be reduced. A lengthy school holiday is also likely, despite the earlier policy of wanting to keep them open. Curfews are being imposed in some places.

I think the politicians took their eye off the ball over summer, everything seemed under control. Maybe they could have prepared better for the predicted second wave.

No-one knows exactly why the figures have risen so dramatically, but it is most likely that a significant factor is too many are no longer abiding by the hygiene and distancing rules.


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## classic33 (11 Dec 2020)

I've relatives in Ireland, who have complained about how little was being done. By, they agree with the measures that were put in place.

Self-serve checkouts appeared in supermarkets, as the only means of taking payment. One of them hates the things, with a vengeance, but realises they're a necessary evil.


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## MntnMan62 (11 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I have to agree with you on this. The political thinking is couched as being for their future, but spreading misery around their family is no future worth having. They are spreaders - innocent but spreaders nevertheless - and the age and number of hospitalised goes slowly and inexorably upward. The potential to exacerbate the spreading over Christmas (and your Thanksgiving) is enormous.



You used a very key word there to describe children - Innocent. That they are. And because they are innocent it is up to us not to put them in harms way. Because despite what I keep hearing from idiots in my community, children ARE getting sick and some even die. And when they get sick, sometimes they are left with permanent and debilitating disability. If we allow children to be put in that position then we are no better than the animals who kill for sport. I heard on the radio today that some people are referring to children as "the lost generation" because they haven't been able to be in school for in person learning. Really? First of all, this pandemic has not even been around for a full year. A year is not a generation. And if it take another year to get a vaccine out and distributed to get kids back in school, 2 years isn't a generation either. I find that description of the lost generation completely sensationalistic and completely inaccurate. And its a product of the imbecile in chief who failed to take a national approach at fighting the virus. I'll stop now because if I keep going I may get banned.


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## screenman (11 Dec 2020)

A good friend of our is having to isolate, one of the children in her class was found positive by testing, trouble is she was tested on a Sunday and her parents kept sending her into school before they got the results back 3 days later.


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## Julia9054 (11 Dec 2020)

screenman said:


> A good friend of our is having to isolate, one of the children in her class was found positive by testing, trouble is she was tested on a Sunday and her parents kept sending her into school before they got the results back 3 days later.


Worryingly, there is a lot of that about


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## screenman (11 Dec 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Worryingly, there is a lot of that about



An awful lot for sure.


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## mjr (11 Dec 2020)

Peterborough City Council contact tracing reaching 80% of contacts, so the other districts of Cambridgeshire are now doing it to (actually since mid Nov but only announced today) https://www.peterborough.gov.uk/news/local-contact-tracing-scheme-reaching-more-than-80-of-cases


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## mjr (11 Dec 2020)

Flanders police to use heatseeking drones (more often used for spotting cannabis loft growers) to spot covid-rule-breaking parties. https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgi...as-belgium-new-years-eve-coronavirus-covid19/

Do you think UK police will dare?


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## Beebo (11 Dec 2020)

Does anyone know why the Business Lunch meeting is allowed. 
In London it is just a massive loophole for idiots to go out for Christmas Lunches.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 Dec 2020)

Beebo said:


> Does anyone know why the Business Lunch meeting is allowed.
> In London it is just a massive loophole for idiots to go out for Christmas Lunches.



Yup.

I'm in a tier two area and passed a restaurant on the way to get my flu jab earlier.

Like an alcoholic virus incubater.


----------



## marinyork (11 Dec 2020)

It's a selfishsterfeck. It's just because the politicians and their mates want it.


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## MntnMan62 (11 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> It's a selfishsterfeck. It's just because the politicians and their mates want it.



I think that if anyone wants to take themselves into a crowded bar, not wear a mask and not socially distance, then they should be made to stay there until the pandemic is over. Let's see how much they really like alcohol. I love it. But not enough to be an imbecile about the virus.


----------



## marinyork (11 Dec 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I think that if anyone wants to take themselves into a crowded bar, not wear a mask and not socially distance, then they should be made to stay there until the pandemic is over. Let's see how much they really like alcohol. I love it. But not enough to be an imbecile about the virus.



A lot of the UK stuff there's a large political element.

A third of the population are hesistant and not really mixing, a third have reduced their contact quite a bit and a third are just doing whatever they want.

London schools are getting sent kits to try and stave off tier 3. Whatever happens it needs to go into tier 3. It's not what anyone wants. Yet on a daily basis scientists and others are saying tier 2 doesn't contain and that they are expecting similar restrictions on till late spring/early summer.

Universities today have had a lot of info released that suggests in those that have reported outbreaks are pretty small now with mass-ish testing.


----------



## MntnMan62 (11 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> A lot of the UK stuff there's a large political element.
> 
> A third of the population are hesistant and not really mixing, a third have reduced their contact quite a bit and a third are just doing whatever they want.
> 
> ...



I hear you. My lack of patience with the no mask, no social distancing crowd is due to the fact that I'd say an easy 40% of the US population fit that description. Maybe more. And look at the number of cases and deaths in this country. We are setting records every day for cases and deaths. And you can't blame it on us doing too much testing. We can blame it on the science denier in the white house.


----------



## marinyork (11 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Yes, case numbers and growth make it look like London should be regraded to head off growth. Are hospital occupancy rates published anywhere easy to follow? That's another key measure they use.
> 
> But also yes, the economic, social and political consequences of telling Londoners to stay in their own rather small boroughs and of increasing the discouragement of residents of nearby Tier 2 commuter belt from going into London, right before Christmas, is likely to make Mr Dither-and-Delay do what that name suggests, despite the likely contribution to the death toll



Sky seem to think that it's not changed much in London

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...whats-happened-since-lockdown-lifted-12157342

The time stamps could have been clearer, what they mean, they clearly aren't 67 weeks in a year and 67 days sounds the wrong sort of timescale.


----------



## mjr (11 Dec 2020)

Beebo said:


> Does anyone know why the Business Lunch meeting is allowed.
> In London it is just a massive loophole for idiots to go out for Christmas Lunches.


It's not allowed, is it? https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working...id-19/offices-and-contact-centres#offices-3-4


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## MntnMan62 (12 Dec 2020)

According to Worldometers the US has surpassed the 300,000 mark for Covid deaths. What has Trump said about the number of deaths in this country? I quote, "It is what it is." Unconscionable.


----------



## marinyork (12 Dec 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I hear you. My lack of patience with the no mask, no social distancing crowd is due to the fact that I'd say an easy 40% of the US population fit that description. Maybe more. And look at the number of cases and deaths in this country. We are setting records every day for cases and deaths. And you can't blame it on us doing too much testing. We can blame it on the science denyer in the white house.



Here mask wearing is very high, all right so not like some Asian countries and things could be better, but it's pretty high. It's mostly employees not wearing. The distancing, well yeah it's better than nothing, but it's got a lot worse. In certain environments people seem to be doing just enough of it.

It's the home visits that many of us expect are going on. I did an errand to pick up my parents' prescriptions. On the short walk there I saw people leave four houses, extended goodbyes and get in the cars and said goodbye from couples every time. These are people who'd clearly not been bubbled and spent a long enough while in someone else's house to say very long goodbyes and hugs and chats and so on.


----------



## MntnMan62 (12 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Here mask wearing is very high, all right so not like some Asian countries and things could be better, but it's pretty high. It's mostly employees not wearing. The distancing, well yeah it's better than nothing, but it's got a lot worse. In certain environments people seem to be doing just enough of it.
> 
> It's the home visits that many of us expect are going on. I did an errand to pick up my parents' prescriptions. On the short walk there I saw people leave four houses, extended goodbyes and get in the cars and said goodbye from couples every time. These are people who'd clearly not been bubbled and spent a long enough while in someone else's house to say very long goodbyes and hugs and chats and so on.



Over here the mask wearing generally reflects the political makeup of the population. So here in Northern NJ which voted for Biden, wherever you go people are wearing masks in stores and around other people. And people are also social distancing. Anyone not respecting distance will be spoken to. I know I have. I'll even see people driving in their cars, alone, and wearing a mask. That one I don't quite get. If I were to go down to Southern NJ or some states down South or in the middle of the country, people aren't wearing masks or social distancing. And those would be the states that voted for Trump. Trump and all the anti-mask/social distancing people are proven wrong each and every day. Today's total according to Worldometers is over 306,000 dead from Covid in the US. That's just unconscionable.


----------



## Unkraut (12 Dec 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Over here the mask wearing generally reflects the political makeup of the population.


I've certainly gained that impression from this side of the Pond, the non-wearers being obsessed with Big Government, but obviously you are in the know on this and can confirm the impression.

This should be purely a medical issue, not a political one. That is, of course, stating the obvious, except to vast numbers of people both there and here it isn't at all obvious.


----------



## marinyork (12 Dec 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Over here the mask wearing generally reflects the political makeup of the population. So here in Northern NJ which voted for Biden, wherever you go people are wearing masks in stores and around other people. And people are also social distancing. Anyone not respecting distance will be spoken to. I know I have. I'll even see people driving in their cars, alone, and wearing a mask. That one I don't quite get. If I were to go down to Southern NJ or some states down South or in the middle of the country, people aren't wearing masks or social distancing. And those would be the states that voted for Trump. Trump and all the anti-mask/social distancing people are proven wrong each and every day. Today's total according to Worldometers is over 306,000 dead from Covid in the US. That's just unconscionable.



Here on the non-weekend tallies, it often reaches 400-500 deaths a day. People don't watch the news now and if they did many are just desensitized to the death in the same way as after a few months war, famine, other natural disasters people just zone out. I was telling someone today they've finally changed the self isolation for large numbers of people from 14 down to 10 days. People are just not bothered.

It's just cross your finger time in the UK. We all know people are going to maximise the three household 'Christmas bubbles' on 23rd to 27th December, or um exceed it. And maybe a week or two either side . Averaged over the entire population it's just hoping that the amount of time spent around over 50s and interhousehold mixing is reduced enough for things to be very bad in January. It's a vain hope.

On the other hand not everyone is indoors. Many parks at weekends are bonkers, it's completely rammed.


----------



## classic33 (12 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> This should be purely a medical issue, not a political one. That is, of course, stating the obvious, except to vast numbers of people both there and here it isn't at all obvious.


There's some wearing ones with the Red Rose on, in Yorkshire!


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## MntnMan62 (12 Dec 2020)

And we saw almost 3,350 Covid deaths this past Thursday alone, a record for the pandemic. This is what Trump has wrought on us with his tripe.


----------



## Beebo (12 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> It's not allowed, is it? https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working...id-19/offices-and-contact-centres#offices-3-4


It appears from various government statements that a business lunch is allowed, but as you say the guidelines don’t appear to allow it. 
I’m asking because a friend of mine is travelling to London today to have a “business lunch” on a Saturday. 
He knows it’s a loophole but appears happy to use it. I’m not very impressed.


----------



## raleighnut (12 Dec 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Over here the mask wearing generally reflects the political makeup of the population. So here in Northern NJ which voted for Biden, wherever you go people are wearing masks in stores and around other people. And people are also social distancing. Anyone not respecting distance will be spoken to. I know I have. I'll even see people driving in their cars, alone, and wearing a mask. That one I don't quite get. If I were to go down to Southern NJ or some states down South or in the middle of the country, people aren't wearing masks or social distancing. And those would be the states that voted for Trump. Trump and all the anti-mask/social distancing people are proven wrong each and every day. Today's total according to Worldometers is over 306,000 dead from Covid in the US. That's just unconscionable.


The thing is masks don't really protect you, what they do is contain any germs you might have from infecting others. Not wearing a mask shows you really don't care about other people (pretty much a Fart thing) We have our own deniers in the UK, this crazy woman being one of the worst 


View: https://youtu.be/62V6KiKEi_0


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## Julia9054 (12 Dec 2020)

Confirmed by my headteacher. 
https://www.theguardian.com/educati...ristmas-online-lessons?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


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## raleighnut (12 Dec 2020)

raleighnut said:


> The thing is masks don't really protect you, what they do is contain any germs you might have from infecting others. Not wearing a mask shows you really don't care about other people (pretty much a Fart thing) We have our own deniers in the UK, this crazy woman being one of the worst
> 
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/62V6KiKEi_0



We also have the winker (mispint*)


View: https://youtu.be/8uiozeMshyY




View: https://youtu.be/02QdeWnfn9s

*


----------



## marinyork (12 Dec 2020)

raleighnut said:


> The thing is masks don't really protect you, what they do is contain any germs you might have from infecting others. Not wearing a mask shows you really don't care about other people (pretty much a Fart thing) We have our own deniers in the UK, this crazy woman being one of the worst
> 
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/62V6KiKEi_0




Still around eh. That's worse than watching the news and we all know that that doesn't do us any good.


----------



## raleighnut (12 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Still around eh. That's worse than watching the news and we all know that that doesn't do us any good.


I'm still waiting for her to run 'naked' up the street with a Saveloy up her bum.

I think she 'bottled' doing that


----------



## MntnMan62 (12 Dec 2020)

raleighnut said:


> The thing is masks don't really protect you, what they do is contain any germs you might have from infecting others. Not wearing a mask shows you really don't care about other people (pretty much a Fart thing) We have our own deniers in the UK, this crazy woman being one of the worst
> 
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/62V6KiKEi_0




Actually there have been further studies done that found that masks protect BOTH the wearer and others as well.


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## DaveReading (12 Dec 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> Actually there have been further studies done that found that masks protect BOTH the wearer and others as well.



But the wearer to a lesser extent.

If you meet a friend, and you only have one mask between you, you're more protected if they wear it.


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## Julia9054 (12 Dec 2020)

DaveReading said:


> But th wearer to a lesser extent.
> 
> If you meet a friend, and you only have one mask between you, you're more protected if they wear it.


Make sure you lick the inside first


----------



## mjr (13 Dec 2020)

MntnMan62 said:


> I'll even see people driving in their cars, alone, and wearing a mask. That one I don't quite get.


Sometimes it's easier just to leave it on for short trips. I do too when cycling between buildings half a mile or so apart. My hands have enough to do unlocking the vehicle and putting the luggage in/on, then the reverse.


----------



## mjr (13 Dec 2020)

Beebo said:


> It appears from various government statements that a business lunch is allowed, but as you say the guidelines don’t appear to allow it.
> I’m asking because a friend of mine is travelling to London today to have a “business lunch” on a Saturday.
> He knows it’s a loophole but appears happy to use it. I’m not very impressed.


Funnily enough, I got an invitation to a business breakfast today, for January. I'll post the bull shoot excuse from the back if you like. Should I report it to the local covid marshals?


----------



## Unkraut (13 Dec 2020)

Strange things happening with the figures here. The number of new infections shot up by 6000 to over 29000 reported on Friday, over 28000 yesterday but today's figures are 20000 although this may reflect some cases not yet being reported as it's the weekend. Had seemed to have stabilised at around 22000.

Government and states have an extra meeting today to decide on how hard a lockdown is coming and when. I think Christmas will remain restricted, and the proposed relaxation rescinded, and New Year as good as cancelled.


----------



## midlife (13 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Strange things happening with the figures here. The number of new infections shot up by 6000 to over 29000 reported on Friday, over 28000 yesterday but today's figures are 20000 although this may reflect some cases not yet being reported as it's the weekend. Had seemed to have stabilised at around 22000.
> 
> Government and states have an extra meeting today to decide on how hard a lockdown is coming and when. I think Christmas will remain restricted, and the proposed relaxation rescinded, and New Year as good as cancelled.




BBC reporting that Germany going into a hard lockdown from 16th December to 10th January. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55292614


----------



## Julia9054 (13 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> BBC reporting that Germany going into a hard lockdown from 16th December to 10th January.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55292614


Including closing schools early for Christmas which is what we should be doing.


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## marinyork (13 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> BBC reporting that Germany going into a hard lockdown from 16th December to 10th January.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55292614



Probably helps Boris. It's always a good one for the politicians when other countries start doing stuff suddenly. 

May mean that more areas get shoved in tier 3 after 16th.


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## marinyork (13 Dec 2020)

Yet another story on autoantibodies 

https://www.theguardian.com/science...may-be-driving-severe-covid-cases-study-shows


----------



## Unkraut (13 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> BBC reporting that Germany going into a hard lockdown from 16th December to 10th January.


The BBC article basically says it all. I've watched the news and discussions over the measures this evening. The general feeling is this is now more than overdue, but some other strategy will have to be thought of for long-term living with the virus into next year. A new app that tracks people's movements has been mooted, and data protection will for once have to give way. Can't keep having lockdowns. In Baden-Württemberg we have already got an night-time curfew. Amazingly peaceful!

I noticed Merkel specifically justified the lockdown to relieve the pressure on hospitals, which in some places are reaching capacity. If the interviews on the streets really were random, most of the population sees the need for this action and will comply with it.


Julia9054 said:


> Including closing schools early for Christmas which is what we should be doing.


There has been some resistance to closing schools, partly because it's not easy where both parent work to look after them at short notice, and you can't involve friends and relatives. They are often out by mid-afternoon. Other reasons include them getting together and dossing around in shopping malls etc., and having to use public transport to get to school - making social distancing harder. At least with the blighters in school this can be enforced!


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## MntnMan62 (14 Dec 2020)

This is some of the insane shyte coming out of the US Republican Party, which is fully enabled by Trump. I'd like this guy to tell that to the families of the more than 1.6 million people who have died from Covid. Let him say that to their faces. He'd be bludgeoned to death in mere seconds. And I'd be cheering them on. Awe, heck. I'd be helping.

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/bob-good-congressman-elect-pandemic-phony-trump-rally-041251561.html


----------



## fossyant (14 Dec 2020)

London's rates seem to be through the roof - way higher than when other areas were put into higher restrictions. I personally can't see GM coming out of Tier 3 even though many areas are near or below 100 per 100k, but I've booked a meal out on the 21st just in case.


----------



## mjr (14 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> A new app that tracks people's movements has been mooted, and data protection will for once have to give way. Can't keep having lockdowns.


Maybe not, but how would spyware help? CoronaWarn isn't working, NHS Covid-19 isn't working, even the more authoritarian states haven't made apps have a significant effect. Then in more open societies like here, governments aren't going to rush to shaft the generally-older population who don't have the latest smartphones, especially countries with governments whose voters are that generally-older population.

Another farking app sounds like politicians clutching at straws and saying shoot that journalists won't question too hard.


----------



## Unkraut (14 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> CoronaWarn isn't working, NHS Covid-19 isn't working, even the more authoritarian states haven't made apps have a significant effect.


The reasoning behind this is that if you can reduce the infection level to below 50 per 100 000 of the population per day it is possible to track where the infection occurred and warn others they may be infected and should quarantine. Some Asian countries have managed this with the help of tracking apps, having at least temporarily put health above data protection. The current app here doesn't do this, significantly reducing its effectiveness. The health people are completely overwhelmed with the infection rate at present, no chance of warning anyone for days, if at all.

Once you can track you can restore many of the freedoms that are going to suspended until at least 10th January. This will help the economy, and be useful whilst waiting for the results of vaccination to kick in, sometime towards the end of next year. So current thinking, anyway.


----------



## mjr (14 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Some Asian countries have managed this with the help of tracking apps, having at least temporarily put health above data protection.


Who has? I know of some like Taiwan that have tracked phones to ensure people stay in quarantine on arrival, but I am pretty sure that has been from cell and wifi connection tracking, not an app that a smart programmer could pervert.

In other words, they may have put health above privacy, but I don't remember seeing an app that helped.



> Once you can track you can restore many of the freedoms that are going to suspended until at least 10th January.


How? Even the most invasive tracking will only alert police after people have farked up - and doing it on an app just seems like it's going to lead to massive adoption of burner and pool phones even if it can't be cracked.

If a country is willing to go really authoritarian, there are far cheaper ways to cut infections than developing another easily-undermined app. For example, ID logs on entry/exit to various places and limits on times and repeat visits, which could stop the "shopping as a frequent all-day family trip" nonsense and limit the exposures from restaurant dining; or using existing Auto Number Plate Reader tracking and thermal-imaging drones to try to spot frequent illegal gatherings in private homes.


----------



## classic33 (14 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Who has? I know of some like Taiwan that have tracked phones to ensure people stay in quarantine on arrival, but I am pretty sure that has been from cell and wifi connection tracking, not an app that a smart programmer could pervert.
> 
> In other words, they may have put health above privacy, but I don't remember seeing an app that helped.
> 
> ...


I don't have a number plate fitted. And, if your house is well insulated, a thermal camera will show little.

There are also areas where a drone cannot be flown, resulting in a full size aircraft being used instead.

Use cash rather than a card to pay for anything*, limiting your withdrawals over a given period. 

*Many places would only accept card payments earlier this year. Often only contactless at that.


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## PK99 (14 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Who has? I know of some like Taiwan* that have tracked phones* to ensure people stay in quarantine on arrival,
> snip
> In other words, they may have* put health above privacy*, but I don't remember seeing an app that helped.
> sip
> If a country is* willing to go really authoritarian, *




The countries with the greatest success in combatting Coronavirus

1. Are authoritarian societies 

and/or

2 Had past experience of SARS and or MERS


----------



## mjr (14 Dec 2020)

PK99 said:


> The countries with the greatest success in combatting Coronavirus
> 
> 1. Are authoritarian societies
> 
> ...


Definitely OR and probably 2 is a bigger factor than 1, but NZ had something like one SARS case and no MERS, so it's not an absolute rule.


----------



## mjr (14 Dec 2020)

classic33 said:


> I don't have a number plate fitted. And, if your house is well insulated, a thermal camera will show little.


We don't need to catch everyone to cause a reduction. Starting with those who are both stupid and careless would be good enough. I suspect both above measures or either of yours would catch more than 10x those of an app and actually prevent some infections too, unlike most suggested apps.


----------



## PK99 (14 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Definitely OR and probably 2 is a bigger factor than 1, but NZ had something like one SARS case and no MERS, so it's not an absolute rule.



NZ is a special case.


Isolated landmass 1000 miles from anywhere else
A long history of biosecurity controls
Well established and practiced Civil Defence systems with domestic stocks advice and state contingency stocks ref Tsunami, Earthquake, Volcanos, and Pandemics
24,000 per day peak tourist season international arrivals (cf Uk 10,000 per day from Spain alone in March)


----------



## mjr (14 Dec 2020)

PK99 said:


> NZ is a special case.


You can make that argument about anywhere! No two countries are exact clones. The interesting thing is to try to work out which factors explain the results and their relative importance. It's not as simple as saying authoritarians or SARS experience explains it all because it clearly doesn't.


----------



## matticus (14 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> No two countries are exact clones. The interesting thing is to try to work out which factors explain the results and their relative importance.


I think most people have realised that NZ's unusual circumstances have a much higher relative importance than almost everything else.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (14 Dec 2020)

matticus said:


> I think most people have realised that NZ's unusual circumstances have a much higher relative importance than almost everything else.



Other countries without any of NZ attributes have also done very well eg Vietnam.

There's a huge spread in outcomes - see attached for good, bad and indifferent across Europe for comparison

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...othing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc


----------



## vickster (14 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Other countries without any of NZ attributes have also done very well eg Vietnam.
> 
> There's a huge spread in outcomes - see attached for good, bad and indifferent across Europe for comparison


Vietnam a communist country, authoritarian regime, might have had an impact?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (14 Dec 2020)

vickster said:


> Vietnam a communist country, authoritarian regime, might have had an impact?



There are all sorts of reasons. I don't claim to have a silver bullet for the reasons. 

But many countries have done very well, mostly but not exclusively in SE Asia. We should learn from them, I think.

I could have highlighted Finland, South Korea, Taiwan etc etc.


----------



## PK99 (14 Dec 2020)

vickster said:


> Vietnam a communist country, authoritarian regime, might have had an impact?



from BBC report:


_While Vietnam never had a total national lockdown, it swooped in on emerging clusters.

In February after a handful of cases in Son Loi, north of Hanoi, more than 10,000 people living in the surrounding area were sealed off. The same would happen to 11,000 people in the Ha Loi commune near the capital, and to the staff and patients of a hospital.

No-one would be allowed in or out until two weeks had passed with no confirmed cases._

EDIT 

more from the same report

_Enforcing social distancing and quarantine relied on its entrenched system of "loyal neighbourhood party cadres spying on area residents and reporting to superiors", says Phil Robertson of Human Rights Watch,

There were undoubtedly "rights-violating excesses" in the process, he told the BBC.

"But not many people will hear about those episodes because of the government's total control of the media," he adds, citing cases of people being fined or prosecuted for criticising the government response._


----------



## tom73 (14 Dec 2020)

Don't like what your own government advisers tell just phone up others who are happy to tell you what you want to hear.Why the fire break never happened and just who's advice did they use to justify ? 
This has cost 1000's more lives in the process and failed to protect the economy they only thing they really care about. 
https://archive.vn/UWnAm#selection-909.27-909.34


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## tom73 (14 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> London's rates seem to be through the roof - way higher than when other areas were put into higher restrictions. I personally can't see GM coming out of Tier 3 even though many areas are near or below 100 per 100k, but I've booked a meal out on the 21st just in case.



London moving to tier 3 from Wednesday. Come review day some others probably will be moving up too as for moving down can't see that happening. Even in some areas with failing case numbers hospital admissions are still too high. At least that what I hope if they do pick the pre Christmas economy at all cost. Than January is going even more of mess and even more are going to here to see it


----------



## Rocky (14 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> Don't like what your own government advisers tell just phone up others who are happy to tell you what you want to hear.Why the fire break never happened and just who's advice did they use to justify ?
> This has cost 1000's more lives in the process and failed to protect the economy they only thing they really care about.
> https://archive.vn/UWnAm#selection-909.27-909.34


Just doing a little maths here..... according to the article, 1.3 million extra infections spread the country as a result. According to the ONS, the aged-standardised mortality rate for Covid in the UK is 12.6 per 100,000. Thus the extra deaths caused by this advice to delay a lockdown would be 164. It's not on the scale of Shipman but it's pretty close.


----------



## tom73 (14 Dec 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Just doing a little maths here..... according to the article, 1.3 million extra infections spread the country as a result. According to the ONS, the aged-standardised mortality rate for Covid in the UK is 12.6 per 100,000. Thus the extra deaths caused by this advice to delay a lockdown would be 164. It's not on the scale of Shipman but it's pretty close.


Yes it’s not much off for sure add in extra avoidable treatment delays which is still to be truly worked out yet.Your sadly talking of even more lies lost or affected long term leading to shorter life than you thought.
Every time they mess up it just adds to the public health mess the effects of which will bite back for years.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (14 Dec 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Just doing a little maths here..... according to the article, 1.3 million extra infections spread the country as a result. According to the ONS, the aged-standardised mortality rate for Covid in the UK is 12.6 per 100,000. Thus the extra deaths caused by this advice to delay a lockdown would be 164. It's not on the scale of Shipman but it's pretty close.



Something wrong there I think - the infection fatality rate is estimated at 1% ish for the UK. So 1.3 million infections = 13,000 deaths, which will vary enormously according to the age of those actually infected. 

I can't quite see where you're getting the 12.6 per 100,000 from, but I suspect that's for the whole population rather than the infected part, ie 60 odd million rather than 1.3 million, so apply a factor of 50 or so.

Reference for IFR estimate https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-34-IFR/


----------



## Rocky (14 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Something wrong there I think - the infection fatality rate is estimated at 1% ish for the UK. So 1.3 million infections = 13,000 deaths, which will vary enormously according to the age of those actually infected.
> 
> I can't quite see where you're getting the 12.6 per 100,000 from, but I suspect that's for the whole population rather than the infected part, ie 60 odd million rather than 1.3 million, so apply a factor of 50 or so.
> 
> Reference for IFR estimate https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-34-IFR/


I think you are right - I’m mixing up the whole population with the numbers infected, in which case it’s even more shocking, as you say.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Dec 2020)

So a new strain in london and the south then. 
To quote the opening post in this thread "How worried should we be?"


----------



## roubaixtuesday (15 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So a new strain in london and the south then.
> To quote the opening post in this thread "How worried should we be?"



Not any more or less worried than you were before. 

There are many mutations. 

There seems to be no evidence that this one is any more significant than any of the others, and its potential significance is being investigated in the same way as the others have been. 

A cynic might wish to speculate why, in these circumstances, this one merited an announcement in Parliament. It's almost as though something eye catching would distract attention away from the tier changes themselves.


----------



## tom73 (15 Dec 2020)

Not a lot it's common for this type of virus to change. It's been found quickly as it look's to be driving case rates but to what true effect won't be known until more works is done. PHE will be fully reporting on it in a few weeks. 
As always Dr Shaib is able to explain it clearly and calmly. 

View: https://twitter.com/doctorshaib/status/1338735662388944900?s=20


----------



## tom73 (15 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Not any more or less worried than you were before.
> 
> There are many mutations.
> 
> ...



Oh no never you mean "don't blame us blame covid it's now wearing a cunning disguise"


----------



## DCLane (15 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> So a new strain in london and the south then.
> To quote the opening post in this thread "How worried should we be?"



Every time a virus moves host it'll mutate very slightly. It's a bigger mutation which causes a new strain. No different to seasonal flu, etc.

Vaccines are adjusted to take care of this once they know how to make the vaccine.


----------



## matticus (15 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> matticus said:
> _I think most people have realised that NZ's unusual circumstances have a much higher relative importance than almost everything else._
> 
> 
> ...


Yes I know!!! :-) Please refer back to where this started:
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6232535


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Dec 2020)

Meanwhile, neighbouring Greenwich has got into a battle with the Government. There's an extremely high infection rate in school-age children and with Christmas looming, Greenwich council leader asked schools to close early. This, of course, doesn't apply to academies and free schools, who must make their own decisions. Islington and Waltham Forest followed Greenwich's lead.

The government have reacted to this loss of one week's schooling at a time of spiralling infection by launching a legal action against Greenwich. Their guiding (or misguiding) principle is that schools must be kept open. And heading Greenwich off will discourage Islington and Waltham Forest.

While council leader Danny Thorpe has been rather clumsy in ordering the school closures, I do share his concern about keeping children i the educational petri dish before releasing them into all-age group family gatherings. The New Year consequences are likely to be murderous.


----------



## bitsandbobs (15 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> There has been some resistance to closing schools, partly because it's not easy where both parent work to look after them at short notice, and you can't involve friends and relatives. They are often out by mid-afternoon. Other reasons include them getting together and dossing around in shopping malls etc., and having to use public transport to get to school - making social distancing harder. At least with the blighters in school this can be enforced!



A German colleague told me that some of the resistance to closing schools is that German schools are "old-fashioned" (her words) and cannot easily provide online teaching.


----------



## mjr (15 Dec 2020)

Netherlands goes into its toughest lockdown yet, for five weeks. https://www.thejournal.ie/netherlands-lockdown-2-5299852-Dec2020/


----------



## roubaixtuesday (15 Dec 2020)

_This joint editorial is only the second in the more than 100-year histories of the BMJ and HSJ. We are publishing it because we believe the government is about to blunder into another major error that will cost many lives. _

Devastating editorial from health professionals. 

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entr...uRJoqA51mdPiCCrsnSpY_UKMInxfVxNOVGOYsP5hFQchu


----------



## bitsandbobs (15 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Netherlands goes into its toughest lockdown yet, for five weeks. https://www.thejournal.ie/netherlands-lockdown-2-5299852-Dec2020/



Massive queue outside the weedshop last night.


----------



## tom73 (15 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> _This joint editorial is only the second in the more than 100-year histories of the BMJ and HSJ. We are publishing it because we believe the government is about to blunder into another major error that will cost many lives. _
> 
> Devastating editorial from health professionals.
> 
> https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entr...uRJoqA51mdPiCCrsnSpY_UKMInxfVxNOVGOYsP5hFQchu



The truth often is. Wales must be having kittens right now and be wishing why they ever signed up to this. London maybe leading the way but numbers are moving up in all other areas. Even if more people do a rethink as things stand in will not take many to just go for. To kick start things nicely.


----------



## SteveF (15 Dec 2020)

9th 10th and 11th December were pretty grim for the US when you consider the daily death toll for each of those days exceeded that of the 9/11 atrocity....


----------



## Julia9054 (15 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> This, of course, doesn't apply to academies and free schools, who must make their own decisions.


However, even if academies and (I assume) free schools choose to close, the government can still force them to stay open.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Dec 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> However, even if academies and (I assume) free schools choose to close, the government can still force them to stay open.


Well, fairly predicably, the academies and free schools ignored the closure request. And with Government legal action on the way, Greenwich backed down. So we're back to spreading covid-goodwill.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (15 Dec 2020)

Epidemiologist on the "It was the new strain wot won it" bollix


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1338769169341444096


Short version: it wasn't.


----------



## Julia9054 (15 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Well, fairly predicably, the academies and free schools ignored the closure request. And with Government legal action on the way, Greenwich backed down. So we're back to spreading covid-goodwill.


Up here in the North, many academies would like to close but have been threatened with legal action.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (15 Dec 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Up here in the North, many academies would like to close but have been threatened with legal action.


It's a shame this hasn't been tested in court. The provision for giving Williamson power to order specifies that the Secretary of State must have regard to medical advice and that any direction from him must be necessary and proportionate.

IANAL of course, I'm relying on David Allen Green's Law and Policy blog.


----------



## kingrollo (15 Dec 2020)

FFS !!! A guy on BBC news couldn't cancel his planned get together ...the reason (I kid ye not)

"I've ordered a large Turkey"


----------



## classic33 (15 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> FFS !!! A guy on BBC news couldn't cancel his planned get together ...the reason (I kid ye not)
> 
> "I've ordered a large Turkey"


Was the turkey invited?


----------



## kingrollo (15 Dec 2020)

classic33 said:


> Was the turkey invited?


Host I reckon !


----------



## Ming the Merciless (15 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> FFS !!! A guy on BBC news couldn't cancel his planned get together ...the reason (I kid ye not)
> 
> "I've ordered a large Turkey"



They‘ll be stuffed then


----------



## IaninSheffield (16 Dec 2020)

Don't mess with the Isle of Man. Four week sentence for chap crossing from Scotland (on a jet ski!) and infringing the island's Covid laws.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-isle-of-man-55310647


----------



## Dayvo (16 Dec 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> Don't mess with the Isle of Man. Four week sentence for chap crossing from Scotland (on a jet ski!) and infringing the island's Covid laws.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-isle-of-man-55310647


Lucky for him there’s no birching allowed anymore.


----------



## mjr (16 Dec 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> Don't mess with the Isle of Man. Four week sentence for chap crossing from Scotland (on a jet ski!) and infringing the island's Covid laws.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-isle-of-man-55310647


Oh but the Isle of Man is a special case, being 1000 miles from any other landmass(!)


----------



## Rocky (16 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Oh but the Isle of Man is a special case, being 1000 miles from any other landmass(!)


Did you mean 1000 years?


----------



## mjr (16 Dec 2020)

Brompton Bruce said:


> Did you mean 1000 years?


Next you'll be telling me that part of a new legislative session there is a man in tights banging a stick on a peephole in wooden door, telling elected representatives to go listen to someone who inherited their job(!)


----------



## mjr (16 Dec 2020)

Interview with NZ PM Ardern with some detail https://apnews.com/article/donald-t...-new-zealand-66fd79e174c610cc012b74b820d71e21


----------



## Pale Rider (16 Dec 2020)

IaninSheffield said:


> Don't mess with the Isle of Man. Four week sentence for chap crossing from Scotland (on a jet ski!) and infringing the island's Covid laws.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-isle-of-man-55310647



The report says it took him more than four hours to do the 25 mile journey.

James Bond (Roger Moore) would have done it much quicker.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsiQxexO3kA


----------



## raleighnut (16 Dec 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The report says it took him more than four hours to do the 25 mile journey.
> 
> James Bond (Roger Moore) would have done it much quicker.
> 
> ...



He had to stop in Belfast to ask for directions.


----------



## matticus (16 Dec 2020)

Sounds like he needed an eye-test.

HA HA! Do you see what I did there? Eye test!


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The report says it took him more than four hours to do the 25 mile journey.
> 
> James Bond (Roger Moore) would have done it much quicker.
> 
> ...




He went via the Isle of Wight


----------



## tom73 (16 Dec 2020)

So what about Christmas ?
Boris ..... waffle, waffle, waffle .... Merry Christmas 
Whitty .... Keep it small, Keep it short, Keep it local, think about the vulnerable


----------



## kingrollo (16 Dec 2020)

25000 new cases + 612 deaths ....and incredibly we are set to relax restrictions, - God knows where will be in the first weeks of Jan...


----------



## midlife (16 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> 25000 new cases + 612 deaths ....and incredibly we are set to relax restrictions, - God knows where will be in the first weeks of Jan...



And hospital admissions rising.......


----------



## Beebo (17 Dec 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The report says it took him more than four hours to do the 25 mile journey.
> 
> James Bond (Roger Moore) would have done it much quicker.
> 
> ...



He’s lucky he didn’t die. He’d never ridden a jet ski before. He was in open water the waves a tides could be very dangerous. If he’d fallen off in mid November he’d be dead.


----------



## Beebo (17 Dec 2020)

Beebo said:


> My daughter’s entire school was closed on Monday until after Christmas due to a major outbreak.
> We also received a positive result for her so the entire family are in isolation lockdown.
> We are now waiting to see how the rest of us get on.


Update. 
The whole family have now tested positive. 
My wife tested on Sunday, me on Tuesday and my son tested yesterday. 
I’m feeling rough but don’t seem to have the chest infection yet. 
It’s solved the family Christmas conundrum because we will be in isolation until
Christmas Day!


----------



## Rocky (17 Dec 2020)

And for those holding up Sweden as an exemplar....this is the reality and it didn’t save their economy either.


----------



## fossyant (17 Dec 2020)

What a joke. FkingGovt. Manchester still in T3, no mention, Bristol is nearly double what my area is and they have gone to T2.

Unbelieveable ! We were hoping parts of GM would come out. It's about 70 in 100k where I live. Grrr. We're less than the T2 area next door.


----------



## alicat (17 Dec 2020)

^^^ how galling @fossyant. Do you have a source for that? Would you mind sharing it?


----------



## Bazzer (17 Dec 2020)

Well we are still T2, 147/100k, which looks odd compared to what @fossyant stated for his area, but the rest of the immediate family is still T3, 208/100k
Entire years were sent home on Monday at my nephews' school. All of years 8 & 10. This is wrecking their education and the work sent for them to do at home is appalling.


----------



## tom73 (17 Dec 2020)

Case rate is only one of the things used to work out the tier. In isolation they mean little in the wider over all picture round here the rate have come down. But a few areas inc here are seeing a small uptick in cases add in a good number of hospitals are still running at low bed numbers due to cases from the last time the numbers went up so staying put in tier 3 it has be.
Unless an area can show they meet all the elements of tier setting then you're highly likely to stay as is or move up. 
Some of it I accept look and sound a bit odd and out of step without real detailed data is hard to say if they are a good move or not. 
It's not great and a big pain but the government are set on the tiers it's looking more the case that even this is not work. Plus the latest sats are not looking good hospital admission are now at April levels. The old hit and miss within the same area was no help at all and going back to some sort of that approach is not a great idea.


----------



## fossyant (17 Dec 2020)

This is GM's latest





Locally we're less than the 107 for Stockport, but you'll see a big South Manchester area, Tameside, Stockport and Trafford is way below national average but remains in T3.

Disley is at 114 and Poynton 93 - same numbers T2 ?

The whole of South Manchester has been really low compared to North Manchester and we've been under harsh restrictions since July. High Peak is another area that's T3 and it's rates are comparatively low as well. I can cycle or drive literally 5 miles and be in T2 area.

I know GM's been linked together but I'm seeing huge amount of damage for our local hospitality. There will be nowhere to go for a nice meal !

Oh look, Liverpool's worst 5 infection rates..... higher than GM's and they are T2 ?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (17 Dec 2020)




----------



## mjr (17 Dec 2020)

alicat said:


> ^^^ how galling @fossyant. Do you have a source for that? Would you mind sharing it?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nd-move-to-covid-tier-3-as-bristol-downgraded for the tier change list.


----------



## mjr (17 Dec 2020)

Meanwhile, in Ireland, the message is now to only meet people indoors who you trust with your life! https://www.thejournal.ie/hse-christmas-advice-5303687-Dec2020/


----------



## BoldonLad (17 Dec 2020)

Mr Celine said:


> Visits to care homes stopped. Pubs shut and no indoor mixing means less likliehood of staff catching the virus in the community and bringing it into care homes or hospitals.





marinyork said:


> In England the government were talking of banning people working in more than one home. I don't know whether anything came of this suggestion.



As at today, Care Homes are still using Agency Staff, they probably could not function without Agency Staff.

I would have thought Agency Staff should be tested, before going on shift, but, I very much doubt they are.

IMHO, it is a joke to be restricting relatives from visiting, whilst allowing casual staff changes such as this.


----------



## BoldonLad (17 Dec 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Some care staff don't actually work in residential homes but provide care in the client's own home. They are visiting several different premises a day



Quite. And then, they may do an "agency shift" in yet another premises.


----------



## Oldhippy (17 Dec 2020)

I have recently left social care with that being one of the major reasons.


----------



## Oldhippy (17 Dec 2020)

Many years of experience in LD and mental health but it is just not safe enough.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Dec 2020)

Beebo said:


> Update.
> The whole family have now tested positive.
> My wife tested on Sunday, me on Tuesday and my son tested yesterday.
> I’m feeling rough but don’t seem to have the chest infection yet.
> ...


Bad news but keep the family safe, forget all those things that need doing before Christmas and concentrate on recovering. Christmas on New Year's Eve?


----------



## Oldhippy (17 Dec 2020)

Learning Disabilities.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (17 Dec 2020)

Beebo said:


> Update.
> The whole family have now tested positive.
> My wife tested on Sunday, me on Tuesday and my son tested yesterday.
> I’m feeling rough but don’t seem to have the chest infection yet.
> ...



Sh!t

Best wishes


----------



## kingrollo (17 Dec 2020)

Jesus 36k new cases today ! - how high could this get before it falls back ?


----------



## midlife (17 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Jesus 36k new cases today ! - how high could this get before it falls back ?



I think that includes 11000 lost cases from Wales so "only" 25k. Even so.......


----------



## Julia9054 (18 Dec 2020)

Latest bright idea for schools.
So now, on the last day of term, we are replanning most of our lessons to teach online for the first week back.
Meanwhile, the poor headteacher is attempting to work out how to create and run what is effectively a field hospital for testing 2200 students and staff twice in that first week.


----------



## tom73 (18 Dec 2020)

Which ever numbers you use the new Year is not going to start well. If only the government would stop running after the next silver bullet rapid flow tests being the latest in the long line of ill thought out ideas. We'd have some hope of a possible plan to get us out the mess.
Without a real plan any time soon come the new year you can forget ramming up the vaccination program. The NHS just won't be able to do everything it just won't have the staff to go round.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> Which ever numbers you use the new Year is not going to start well. If only the government would stop running after the next silver bullet rapid flow tests being the latest in the long line of ill thought out ideas. We'd have some hope of a possible plan to get us out the mess.
> Without a real plan any time soon come the new year you can forget ramming up the vaccination program. The NHS just won't be able to do everything it just won't have the staff to go round.


The staffing problem looks like it is going to be a staffing crisis come mid-January


----------



## tom73 (18 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The staffing problem looks like it is going to be a staffing crisis come mid-January


More than likely I just don't know what more people expect them to give.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Dec 2020)

Interesting modelling on where hot spots will be

https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map


----------



## roubaixtuesday (18 Dec 2020)

Excellent, sobering summary of nationwide data from independent sage


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/IndependentSage/status/1339980363465175041


----------



## slowmotion (18 Dec 2020)

Beebo said:


> Update.
> The whole family have now tested positive.
> My wife tested on Sunday, me on Tuesday and my son tested yesterday.
> I’m feeling rough but don’t seem to have the chest infection yet.
> ...


Very best wishes to you and your tribe.


----------



## tom73 (18 Dec 2020)

Due to social distancing the NHS will have 11,000 less beds than the year before. Add in staff shortages , staff isolating , having to try and still provide some sort of normal service. Many hospitals are now at 90 capacity already and rising along with cases ever grownung It’s going to be a bumpy ride here on in and some won’t make it.


----------



## Unkraut (19 Dec 2020)

The infection rate went through the 30000 mark yesterday. I hope the stricter measures soon start to take effect. General feeling that perhaps the government should have reacted quicker and been less obsessed with preserving Christmas - although from the best of motives considering restrictions over the last year. 

Needless to say the death rate has gone up as expected, but the intensive capacity of the hospitals in some areas is approaching the upper limit, and the word triage is starting to be banded about, with memories of Italy. Not there yet, but staff shortages don't help, and many medical (and care home) staff have been working flat out now for months.

No-one really knows exactly why the infection rate has jumped so significantly, but part of the reason is now thought to be keeping schools open, and there is little doubt the 15% or so of the population who won't have anything to do with the corona rules have played their part.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> The infection rate went through the 30000 mark yesterday. I hope the stricter measures soon start to take effect. General feeling that perhaps the government should have reacted quicker and been less obsessed with preserving Christmas - although from the best of motives considering restrictions over the last year.
> 
> Needless to say the death rate has gone up as expected, but the intensive capacity of the hospitals in some areas is approaching the upper limit, and the word triage is starting to be banded about, with memories of Italy. Not there yet, but staff shortages don't help, and many medical (and care home) staff have been working flat out now for months.
> 
> No-one really knows exactly why the infection rate has jumped so significantly, but part of the reason is now thought to be keeping schools open, and there is little doubt the 15% or so of the population who won't have anything to do with the corona rules have played their part.



What stricter measures ? - we came out of lockdown 2 weeks ago - and are set to ease measures next week ?.......unless I've missed something I'm not seeing any stricter measures ?


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Dec 2020)

At the bottom line, we want our cake and eat it. You cannot have both without drastically rethinking how we operate as a nation and society! Simple carry on trying and it will just continue or stop and think as a nation. Sadly we won't do that and economics will continue to be more important than life.


----------



## Unkraut (19 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> What stricter measures ? - we came out of lockdown 2 weeks ago - and are set to ease measures next week ?.......unless I've missed something I'm not seeing any stricter measures ?


Sorry, I'm talking about Germany rather than the UK. As this is a UK forum I don't want to rabbit on about this too often, but on the other hand it's not the other side of the world either!

Some complacency crept in over the summer having managed the pandemic reasonably well in March/April, and the central and state governments were a bit slow to react beginning of October when the cases started to increase again. The November lockdown lite did succeed in breaking the exponential increase, at least for a while, but infections remain far too high for tracking which is essential to keep the virus under some sort of control. The latest figure of 31300 is far too high and is endangering the healthcare system. I reckon the current measures will be extended from 10 January to at least the end of January.

At least the UK has got on with vaccinations and a much improved testing regime. Approval still awaited here (Monday) and the first vaccinations due to start on 27th December. Even with the vaccinations a reasonable return to more normal life is unlikely until towards the end of next year, unless there are further developments.


----------



## tom73 (19 Dec 2020)

Though current supply of said vaccine will run out in January and next supply not due till March. So without anything options being ready to pretty soon. The vaccination program will be having to wait a bit longer. Improved testing not really the rapid flow test are going to bring even more issues than they will fix. The ink is not even dry on the test area report before they got carried away and handed them out like sweets. 
In the meantime over in Oz they have a new out break of around 24 and the whole area infected area go's into lockdown for 3 days. 
We have every growing numbers in all areas and are more worried about saving Christmas, telling people to get spending and sod the Consequences.


----------



## tom73 (19 Dec 2020)

We are to treated with a extra slice of Boris with a news conference later today. The growing situation looks set to all blamed on the "new Covid" and nothing to do with interventions to date being hopeless. Can't see a Christmas u turn but some sort of waffle around using common sense. With which poor unfortunate expert standing near by thinking oh please just grow a pair tell them how it is. Just do what we keep telling you when we tell you to do it.


----------



## Wobblers (19 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Sorry, I'm talking about Germany rather than the UK. As this is a UK forum I don't want to rabbit on about this too often, but on the other hand it's not the other side of the world either!



No need to apologise! I for one am definitely interested in hearing how other countries and people are coping with this damned virus - not least that it gives some insight as to how best to respond on both a personal and societal level. It saddening to see Germany in such a mess, especially considering that it did remarkably well to begin with. Lets hope that these new measures help being things under control. All I can really say at this point is stay safe.


----------



## midlife (19 Dec 2020)

I wonder what Boris has up his sleeve at 4pm? Travel restrictions down south along with new with tier 4?


----------



## potsy (19 Dec 2020)

I am hoping he cancels Christmas!


----------



## tom73 (19 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> I wonder what Boris has up his sleeve at 4pm? Travel restrictions down south along with new with tier 4?


 Tier 4 is that the same tier that sage recommend be brought in weeks ago ?


----------



## pawl (19 Dec 2020)

potsy said:


> I am hoping he cancels Christmas!


 

If he reduced it to one day it would be something Probably to late now.


----------



## midlife (19 Dec 2020)

pawl said:


> If he reduced it to one day it would be something Probably to late now.



I think he just has....


----------



## slowmotion (19 Dec 2020)

Slomo Crimbo has just been relocated 230.516 miles further east than was anticipated.

Ho hum.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Dec 2020)

pawl said:


> If he reduced it to one day it would be something Probably to late now.



He reportedly has. Right decision but wtf was going on earlier in the week.
I think the lockdowns across europe forced his hand.


----------



## midlife (19 Dec 2020)

Tier 4 stay at home order to be backed by law, I thought Parliament had been sent home for Xmas or can Boris sign some sort of executive order?


----------



## tom73 (19 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> Tier 4 stay at home order to be backed by law, I thought Parliament had been sent home for Xmas or can Boris sign some sort of executive order?


It’s only national measures that need a vote. Regional changers don’t need parliament to approve current emergency powers allow it.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> It’s only national measures that need a vote. Regional changers don’t need parliament to approve current emergency powers allow it.


Non the less - some Tory MPs will be non to chuffed about this.


----------



## Salty seadog (19 Dec 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Slomo Crimbo has just been relocated 230.516 miles further east than was anticipated.
> 
> Ho hum.



Was it a Cornwall Christmas planned?


----------



## Grant Fondo (19 Dec 2020)

Please tell me there weren't 2000 fans at Crystal Palace earlier?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Dec 2020)

Scotland border closed, Europe cut off.


----------



## vickster (19 Dec 2020)

Grant Fondo said:


> Please tell me there weren't 2000 fans at Crystal Palace earlier?


Not in tier 3…?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Dec 2020)

vickster said:


> Not in tier 3…?


I'm not sure that the Crystal Palace team turned up either.


----------



## Poacher (19 Dec 2020)

Grant Fondo said:


> Please tell me there weren't 2000 fans at Crystal Palace earlier?





deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'm not sure that the Crystal Palace team turned up either.


What was the count at the final whistle?


----------



## Grant Fondo (19 Dec 2020)

vickster said:


> Not in tier 3…?


I know, but its hardly helped since Dec 2nd?


----------



## slowmotion (19 Dec 2020)

Salty seadog said:


> Was it a Cornwall Christmas planned?


Yes. Strangely, the per capita infection rate in the local village down there is almost exactly the same as the London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Dec 2020)

Poacher said:


> What was the count at the final whistle?


One more than the rule of 6.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Dec 2020)

Four days ago, the government forced London schools to stay open under legal threat. 

Today, they're imposing an effective lock down.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Four days ago, the government forced London schools to stay open under legal threat.
> 
> Today, they're imposing an effective lock down.



Four farking days ago. farking unbefarkinglievable.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Four days ago, the government forced London schools to stay open under legal threat.
> 
> Today, they're imposing an effective lock down.


And they will say that the data has only just emerged, and no doubt we should say the Government deliberately ignored the facts of the situation in local schools, ignored the lessons of the earlier dither and delay and mocked Starmer for being a Christmas killjoy. Oh, how I detest this mendacious bunch of incompetents.


----------



## VelvetUnderpants (19 Dec 2020)

Can anyone please clarify are trains still running in and out of the capital until Christmas Eve or do they finish at midnight.


----------



## vickster (19 Dec 2020)

VelvetUnderpants said:


> Can anyone please clarify are trains still running in and out of the capital until Christmas Eve or do they finish at midnight.


They usually finish long before midnight on Christmas Eve (they’ll be running at some point, it’s a working day). Check the route and make sure you book if it’s a book able service!


----------



## VelvetUnderpants (19 Dec 2020)

vickster said:


> They usually finish long before midnight. Check the route and make sure you book if it’s a book able service!



Its not for me. I have no intention travelling in or out of a tier 4 area. I am more than happy to saty at home on my own for the festive period. My area is tier 3.

The reason I asked is a friend of mine who is 72 and had a heart bypass operation, is planning to catch the train from Birmingham Moor Street to visit relatives in London over Christmas.

I messaged him to say London was tier 4 from midnight which may bugger up his plans and he replied he plans to go anyway as he uses a friend as support bubble. I was surprised he is still going and consider it dangerous and irresponsible, but thought if their are no trains to the capital from midnight, he cannot go anyway.


----------



## vickster (19 Dec 2020)

VelvetUnderpants said:


> Its not for me. I have no intention travelling in or out of a tier 4 area. I am more than happy to saty at home on my own for the festive period. My area is tier 3.
> 
> The reason I asked is a friend of mine who is 72 and had a heart bypass operation, is planning to catch the train from Birmingham Moor Street to visit relatives in London over Christmas.
> 
> I messaged him to say London was tier 4 from midnight which may bugger up his plans and he replied he plans to go anyway as he uses a friend as support bubble. I was surprised he is still going and consider it dangerous and irresponsible, but thought if their are no trains to the capital from midnight, he cannot go anyway.


There are no trains at all on Christmas Day, never have been. When is he actually planning to go and return, it’s not immediately clear?
London is tier 4 from tonight not Christmas Eve? There’ll be trains still until Thursday eve for essential travel


----------



## VelvetUnderpants (19 Dec 2020)

vickster said:


> There are no trains at all on Christmas Day, never have been. When is he actually planning to go and return, it’s not immediately clear?
> London is tier 4 from tonight not Christmas Eve?




Sorry I was not clear, I think he is planning to go down on the 23rd return on the 27th.


----------



## fossyant (19 Dec 2020)

VelvetUnderpants said:


> The reason I asked is a friend of mine who is 72 and had a heart bypass operation, is planning to catch the train from Birmingham Moor Street to visit relatives in London over Christmas.
> 
> I messaged him to say London was tier 4 from midnight which may bugger up his plans and he replied he plans to go anyway as he uses a friend as support bubble. I was surprised he is still going and consider it dangerous and irresponsible, but thought if their are no trains to the capital from midnight, he cannot go anyway.



Support bubble in London, that's taking the wee wee. He's not supposed to travel into London from tonight. Idiots like him will bring it back up North again, and were doing well to reduce infections


----------



## fossyant (19 Dec 2020)

VelvetUnderpants said:


> Sorry I was not clear, I think he is planning to go down on the 23rd return on the 27th.



He can't go.


----------



## shep (19 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Four days ago, the government forced London schools to stay open under legal threat.
> 
> Today, they're imposing an effective lock down.


I know all this is mental but does anyone really think whatever party was in Power there would have been an answer?

They're all really on a loser, has any country got it right?

I know the main posters on here are labour/lefty whatever you prefer to be called, but come on, WTF would any of you do better?


----------



## marinyork (19 Dec 2020)

VelvetUnderpants said:


> Sorry I was not clear, I think he is planning to go down on the 23rd return on the 27th.



I would imagine things may be pretty chaotic going on sudden previous changes (and I'm not just talking about this country).

I'd leave him a day or two to absorb what's going on and then try the persuasion tack again.


----------



## VelvetUnderpants (19 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> Support bubble in London, that's taking the wee wee. He's not supposed to travel into London from tonight. Idiots like him will bring it back up North again, and were doing well to reduce infections




I despair with attitudes such as his and considering he has had major heart surgery you would think he would know better. Then again he did vote Brexit and has moaned all long about resrictions. He was planning to go and stay with his son in York until his son said no, considering it to dangerous.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> I know all this is mental but does anyone really think whatever party was in Power there would have been an answer?
> 
> They're all really on a loser, has any country got it right?
> 
> I know the main posters on here are labour/lefty whatever you prefer to be called, but come on, WTF would any of you do better?



Nothing to do with lefty. This lot have again, again and once again:

1. Been slow to respond.

2. Made false promises of recovery.

3. Eased restrictions too fast.

4. Relied on an entirely false notion of compromise between virus suppression and the economy.

5. Ended up with more dead, harsher and longer restrictions and more economic damage as a result.

Same again today, yet again.

We have nearly the worst death toll *and* nearly the worst economic hit in the entire developed world. It's not bad luck. It's been an endless and total clusterfark from the word go.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> I know all this is mental but does anyone really think whatever party was in Power there would have been an answer?
> 
> They're all really on a loser, has any country got it right?
> 
> I know the main posters on here are labour/lefty whatever you prefer to be called, but come on, WTF would any of you do better?


Dan Thorpe of Greenwich council got it right at the beginning of the week. And he got threatened with legal action. Starmer was right at Wednesday's PMQs and he was mocked by Johnson. There's two people who got it right.


----------



## shep (19 Dec 2020)

Whatever you say mate, Germany was the 'go to' approach for a while, went into lock down sooner blah.blah, are they any better off really?

Makes no odds to me but all I know is I've been of working age since 1981 and voting age since '83 and I can honestly say that whoever was 'in charge' I've never seen a difference.

I suppose the fact I've always had a job, never relied on benefits and only lived in council accommodation for a few years in all that time may have a bearing, I don't know.


----------



## Gunk (19 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> I know all this is mental but does anyone really think whatever party was in Power there would have been an answer?



The problem with Tories are the Covid deniers who believe in no restrictions and herd immunity, there are some first class nutters in the Conservative party, unfortunately they seem to have Johnson’s ear.


----------



## Gunk (19 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> Makes no odds to me but all I know is I've been of working age since 1981 and voting age since '83 and I can honestly say that whoever was 'in charge' I've never seen a difference.


 
I’m the same age as you and I can remember 3 million unemployed under the tories. It was tough back in 1982 trying to get a job.

Blair was far from perfect but he made a much better job of running the country than the tories. At least he believed in society.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> are they any better off really?



Yes. Three times less have died per capita.

Three times less. 

That would be about 50,000 people saved here. 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...othing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

And yet again, they've acted faster than us.


----------



## shep (19 Dec 2020)

Gunk said:


> I’m the same age as you and I can remember 3 million unemployed under the tories. It was tough back in 1982 trying to get a job.
> 
> Blair was far from perfect but he made a much better job of running the country than the tories. At least he believed in society.


Absolutely understand, and remember, but personally I wasn't affected so didn't really take much notice.

Started my apprenticeship in '82 so never felt the 'slump', did my time and carried on in the industry (building trade) through to 1994 when I was lucky enough to get into telecoms which is where I've been ever since.

Bought and sold a couple of houses, had 2 kids, paid the mortgage off and now counting down the yrs to retirement.

Missus was a nurse for 30 odd yrs and retired at 55.

I know I'm lucky but loads I know are exactly the same, sorry.


----------



## marinyork (19 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> And yet again, they've acted faster than us.



And more completely by geography, with some german measures seeming harsher and others not. Always hard to compare.

I don't get the tier4/2 border thing that will spring into existence after midnight. Some of the numbers in what will be tier 2 bordering tier 4 areas are very high AND next to tier 4 areas.


----------



## Gunk (19 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> Absolutely understand, and remember, but personally I wasn't affected so didn't really take much notice.
> 
> Started my apprenticeship in '82 so never felt the 'slump', did my time and carried on in the industry (building trade) through to 1994 when I was lucky enough to get into telecoms which is where I've been ever since.
> 
> ...



I didn’t ask how successful you’ve been but thanks for sharing it


----------



## Adam4868 (19 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> Absolutely understand, and remember, but personally I wasn't affected so didn't really take much notice.
> 
> Started my apprenticeship in '82 so never felt the 'slump', did my time and carried on in the industry (building trade) through to 1994 when I was lucky enough to get into telecoms which is where I've been ever since.
> 
> ...


So you've done ok and not noticed a large chunk of the population struggling under austerity.....how nice.


----------



## alicat (19 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> I don't get the tier4/2 border thing that will spring into existence after midnight. Some of the numbers in what will be tier 2 bordering tier 4 areas are very high AND next to tier 4 areas.



Some of the tier 4 seems v harsh. My friends are in Dorking South and their rates are 110 per 100k - way below average so that is my Christmas snookered.


----------



## Adam4868 (19 Dec 2020)

Look on the bright side...only 371 sleeps till Christmas 😁


----------



## steve292 (19 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> Absolutely understand, and remember, but personally I wasn't affected so didn't really take much notice.
> 
> Started my apprenticeship in '82 so never felt the 'slump', did my time and carried on in the industry (building trade) through to 1994 when I was lucky enough to get into telecoms which is where I've been ever since.
> 
> ...


Cool story Bro


----------



## tom73 (19 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Nothing to do with lefty. This lot have again, again and once again:
> 
> 1. Been slow to respond.
> 
> ...


Even today after stating the facts and saying something needed to be done. He could not stop himself from undermining it and yet again peddling the every thing will be fine come easter. Total denial of the facts and reality.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> Even today after stating the facts and saying something needed to be done. He could not stop himself from undermining it and yet again peddling the every thing will be fine come easter. Total denial of the facts and reality.



I can't listen to Johnson any more. It's bad for my health. Did he really promise Easter? Prick.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> Whatever you say mate, Germany was the 'go to' approach for a while, went into lock down sooner blah.blah, are they any better off really?
> 
> Makes no odds to me but all I know is I've been of working age since 1981 and voting age since '83 and I can honestly say that whoever was 'in charge' I've never seen a difference.
> 
> I suppose the fact I've always had a job, never relied on benefits and only lived in council accommodation for a few years in all that time may have a bearing, I don't know.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> Even today after stating the facts and saying something needed to be done. He could not stop himself from undermining it and yet again peddling the every thing will be fine come easter. Total denial of the facts and reality.


I think Sturgeon said we can't see the light at the end of the tunnel yet.


----------



## fossyant (19 Dec 2020)

alicat said:


> Some of the tier 4 seems v harsh. My friends are in Dorking South and their rates are 110 per 100k - way below average so that is my Christmas snookered.



Welcome to the mess that is the Tiers. We've been in restrictions since July, despite continuous lower rates than most of Greater Manchester. The government delayed the South going to T3 for too long, which as lead to this mess.


----------



## shep (19 Dec 2020)

Gunk said:


> I didn’t ask how successful you’ve been but thanks for sharing it


Didn't ask you to reply with a completely pointless post either but thanks.


----------



## shep (19 Dec 2020)

steve292 said:


> Cool story Bro


Cheers.


----------



## alicat (19 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> Welcome to the mess that is the Tiers. We've been in restrictions since July, despite continuous lower rates than most of Greater Manchester. The government delayed the South going to T3 for too long, which as lead to this mess.



Yes, I get what a mess the tiers are. I spent 5 days in tier 2 and then emerged from the second lockdown into tier 3. Yet, the rates where I live have hardly ever been above average. 

I'm just feeling sorry for myself at the prospect of spending Christmas alone when I could be with friends if they hadn't been lumped in tier 4.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (19 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> Absolutely understand, and remember, but personally I wasn't affected so didn't really take much notice.
> 
> Started my apprenticeship in '82 so never felt the 'slump', did my time and carried on in the industry (building trade) through to 1994 when I was lucky enough to get into telecoms which is where I've been ever since.
> 
> ...



TL;DR "I'm alright, Jack."


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Dec 2020)

Well we've been told we can only have the grandkids over on Christmas Day if they stay outside 

So I've just ordered a huge tarpaulin to wrap around the pillars on 2 sides of the car-port, a load of outdoor lights and a firepit. The kids are going to come and see their gran for the first time in what seems like forever, then we'll toast marshmallows at the fire  Traditional innit?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Dec 2020)

alicat said:


> Yes, I get what a mess the tiers are. I spent 5 days in tier 2 and then emerged from the second lockdown into tier 3. Yet, the rates where I live have hardly ever been above average.
> 
> I'm just feeling sorry for myself at the prospect of spending Christmas alone when I could be with friends if they hadn't been lumped in tier 4.



fark, it's shoot, isn't it?

Might be a good day for a bike ride?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Dec 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Well we've been told we can only have the grandkids over on Christmas Day if they stay outside
> 
> So I've just ordered a huge tarpaulin to wrap around the pillars on 2 sides of the car-port, a load of outdoor lights and a firepit. The kids are going to come and see their gran for the first time in what seems like forever, then we'll toast marshmallows at the fire  Traditional innit?



We'd planned to meet my parents at a mutually inconvenient nat Trust property on Boxing day for a picnic. 

As travel out of local area now verboten, even that modest attempt at socialising looks doomed.


----------



## shep (19 Dec 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> TL;DR "I'm alright, Jack."


Sorry, didn't realise you could only have an opinion on politics if you've had a sh*t time of it.

Simply pointing out whoever was in power never really seemed to make a difference, why does that make me selfish?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (19 Dec 2020)

Nobody's saying that at all. They're just voicing their opinion on your opinion. Is that allowed?


----------



## shep (19 Dec 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Nobody's saying that at all. They're just voicing their opinion on your opinion. Is that allowed?


Absolutely but you must admit there does seem to be a touch of negativity in the replies, which is perfectly fine with me.


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (19 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> Simply pointing out whoever was in power never really seemed to make a difference, why does that make me selfish?



This is the bit that makes you look selfish.



shep said:


> Absolutely understand, and remember, but personally I wasn't affected so didn't really take much notice.


----------



## tom73 (19 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I can't listen to Johnson any more. It's bad for my health. Did he really promise Easter? Prick.


I know what you mean basically he did along the lines of he’s sure things will look much better come easter. The only high light of these briefings is watching Whitty and co pointing out he’s talking crap. It’s been clear for months the gloves are off.


----------



## shep (19 Dec 2020)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> This is the bit that makes you look selfish.


Why would that make me appear selfish?

Tories in power, working paying my way and getting on with life.

Labour in power, working etc, etc.

Tories back in same as.

Not much difference, what should I have done then?

Clearly politics mean a lot more to some people than to others but please tell me you can understand that to some it makes little difference and their life goes on quite happily without them being deemed as selfish.

In your opinion I'm selfish because I don't care who's in power?

Madness!


----------



## mjr (20 Dec 2020)

alicat said:


> I'm just feeling sorry for myself at the prospect of spending Christmas alone when I could be with friends if they hadn't been lumped in tier 4.


If you are alone alone, could you form a support bubble with friends?


----------



## alicat (20 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> If you are alone alone, could you form a support bubble with friends?



No, most of my friends are in tier 4 or already in a support bubble. I'll put my thinking cap on; however it all feels quite bleak right now.


----------



## Mo1959 (20 Dec 2020)

alicat said:


> No, most of my friends are in tier 4 or already in a support bubble. I'll put my thinking cap on; however it all feels quite bleak right now.


Just be me and the cat


----------



## Johnno260 (20 Dec 2020)

Best thing they can say is we can’t promise a date, we’re hoping for some form of normality by this date but it’s a fluid situation which we need to adjust to.

I feel bad for people alone, my mum lives alone in a T4 area, least we have things like FaceTime and Zoom which can take the edge off things, it’s not ideal but better than nothing.


----------



## MrGrumpy (20 Dec 2020)

You know does this come as any surprise ?? This immediate change in direction by WM. The sensible thing was to cancel Christmas a few weeks ago. Just draw a line and say that’s it. Nope once again dither and delay. For an island we really didn’t use that to our advantage did we ?? What a clusterf....k of the highest order. Repeated lockdown/relaxation is not the answer. Lockdown then ban travel abroad we at least could have stood a chance of minimising spread and we might have been in a different place now. That’s my opinion and it’s repeatedly discussed I’m sure.


----------



## MrGrumpy (20 Dec 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Best thing they can say is we can’t promise a date, we’re hoping for some form of normality by this date but it’s a fluid situation which we need to adjust to.
> 
> I feel bad for people alone, my mum lives alone in a T4 area, least we have things like FaceTime and Zoom which can take the edge off things, it’s not ideal but better than nothing.


I’m lucky in that my mother is in an extended house hold with my sister and family. My MIL is in ours so it’s not all bad. Going to break the law today and visit mum today , outside of course but the boys want to see her. hand over pressies .We have been good throughout this till now, so I don’t feel guilty.

we have also realised that even in Tier 4 it’s not really going to bother us much lol. We have hardly any pals and don’t really socialise much . Maybe that’s something we need to change once this is over


----------



## Gunk (20 Dec 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just be me and the cat



That actually sounds quite appealing.


----------



## Johnno260 (20 Dec 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> I’m lucky in that my mother is in an extended house hold with my sister and family. My MIL is in ours so it’s not all bad. Going to break the law today and visit mum today , outside of course but the boys want to see her. hand over pressies .We have been good throughout this till now, so I don’t feel guilty.
> 
> we have also realised that even in Tier 4 it’s not really going to bother us much lol. We have hardly any pals and don’t really socialise much . Maybe that’s something we need to change once this is over



we did a parcel drop the other day, I dropped a bag at my brothers who is same tier as me and waved through the window at my 7 month old niece who I haven’t really met properly yet.

Mums gift went via the mail, we had planned for this anyway, both my wife and I decided on no plans this Christmas, she is working Christmas Day anyway, and her family have huge Christmas meet-ups which aren’t happening 

also people need to bear in mind NHS staff working Christmas Day, that’s the only day where more than one household can met up, yet for those working that window will be missed.

Like I said it’s a fluid situation making plans seemed pointless to me with a situation that can change rapidly, we are lucky tech can help, we had a Zoom disco with family members and the kids that went down well.


----------



## vickster (20 Dec 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just be me and the cat


Bubble with @alicat for Christmas


----------



## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

This virus is causing the same problems all over the world and no government is making all the right choices. Labour bitch about Boris handling of it in the hope it scores points and wins them votes. They don’t give a toss how many die so long as they gain power and same goes for Boris. No party would have handled it better, made it better as the world has shown. The only people who are selfish are the highly educated politicians regardless of who runs the country. Come Christmas Day and Boxing Day and New Year’s Eve/day the country will do as it pleases regardless of the rules.


----------



## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Nothing to do with lefty. This lot have again, again and once again:
> 
> 1. Been slow to respond.
> 
> ...


Point 3.. how many in the country, businesses etc demanded the easing of restrictions otherwise they would go out of business ? Most of the world eased restrictions and still ended up back in Lockdown, Germany, Italy, France... so all doing it wrong then. Not just UK Government. Or is it just a case of what ever anyone does it will be wrong


----------



## kingrollo (20 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> Sorry, didn't realise you could only have an opinion on politics if you've had a sh*t time of it.
> 
> Simply pointing out whoever was in power never really seemed to make a difference, why does that make me selfish?



All those earning the minimum wage say hi


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> Point 3.. how many in the country, businesses etc demanded the easing of restrictions otherwise they would go out of business ? Most of the world eased restrictions and still ended up back in Lockdown, Germany, Italy, France... so all doing it wrong then. Not just UK Government. Or is it just a case of what ever anyone does it will be wrong



Most of those places had significantly fewer cars when they exited lockdown.

Wave 2, we've been merely average for Europe rather than standout worst. 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...othing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

What we did, of course, yet again, was see cases rising across the rest of Europe yet either ignore it, or worse still, exacerbate it.

Remember the "Stop skiving, Save Pret, Catch Covid" campaign?


----------



## kingrollo (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> This virus is causing the same problems all over the world and no government is making all the right choices. Labour bitch about Boris handling of it in the hope it scores points and wins them votes. They don’t give a toss how many die so long as they gain power and same goes for Boris. No party would have handled it better, made it better as the world has shown. The only people who are selfish are the highly educated politicians regardless of who runs the country. Come Christmas Day and Boxing Day and New Year’s Eve/day the country will do as it pleases regardless of the rules.


Well Australia have shut down a whole city based on 38 cases - let's see how that goes. (Hard and Early has worked well for them so far)


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> No party would have handled it better, made it better as the world has shown



This is clearly incorrect. We have nearly the very worst death toll, *and* the very worst economic impact in the entire developed world. 

Practically the whole world has handled it better.


----------



## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well Australia have shut down a whole city based on 38 cases - let's see how that goes. (Hard and Early has worked well for them so far)


1 country versus how many ? Rest of Europe did similar to UK and back in Lockdowns. If it’s lockdown over Christmas we moan, if it’s eased we moan. It’s a virus that’s spreading and evolving. Trial and error but whatever the UK does the country will find fault and Whine on about it.


----------



## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> All those earning the minimum wage say hi


Does that mean feel guilty for earning a decent living ?


----------



## kingrollo (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> Does that mean feel guilty for earning a decent living ?



No. Just some people benefited from a policy - and would be less well off if it hadn't been.


----------



## kingrollo (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> 1 country versus how many ? Rest of Europe did similar to UK and back in Lockdowns. If it’s lockdown over Christmas we moan, if it’s eased we moan. It’s a virus that’s spreading and evolving. Trial and error but whatever the UK does the country will find fault and Whine on about it.


That's true of course. With a population of 60m - you will always displease some people.

I actually think until yesterday we were taking a different route to most of Europe.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Dec 2020)

What is utterly insane is ploughing on wth Brexit in the middle of a global pandemic.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> Rest of Europe did similar to UK



You keep on saying this and it remains untrue. 

First wave we did much worse than the rest of Europe. 

Second wave is more comparable. 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...othing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

Hopkins went on tv this morning with other scientists.

Looks like the full initial findings were only presented to NERVTAG on Friday morning.

Basics of what was said was the 'new' strain that has become so prevalent in large parts of the bottom right corner was sequenced in October, that end of November concerns were there about the 'new' strain becoming more transmissible being a plausible explanation, but lacked evidence. The problem gathering evidence was three-fold, that the lab tests take weeks on things they want to know, that the genomic studies lag around 3 weeks behind actuality and the data they derive is because one gene in the 'new' mutation can be ripped out of other reliable datasets. Apparently the nervtag evidence is pretty damn grim but believed to be reliable and is waiting to be confirmed the next 2-3 weeks.

It would explain why Wales/Scotland went on the tele immediately after Boris and immediately imposed all manner of restrictions to be cautious. 

Matt Hancock was asked about tier 4 and more areas until a good unquantified number of people have been vaccinated, he merely said it would be 'very difficult'.


----------



## Accy cyclist (20 Dec 2020)

What's this 'support bubble' for those living alone and feeling isolated and lonely,the idiot Johnson talks about? Is it some kind of official thing we can contact,or does it just mean we are allowed a friend round or similar? 🤔


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Apparently the nervtag evidence is pretty damn grim but believed to be reliable and is waiting to be confirmed the next 2-3 weeks.


Any idea what?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Dec 2020)

The prime places I get exposed to others indoors are the supermarkets. I suspect this may the case for many others who don't have young children, who will have daily playground and school gates exposure. So, I've been running around buying stuff for a festival I dread and, in doing so, have increased the chances of becoming infected and spreading infection. All for nothing, bar the wasted money and the food I cannot eat. I wonder how many people have been similarly increasing their infection risk all for nothing.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Any idea what?



That it's 'up to 70%' more spreadable, that it may not be that high, but that with a high level of confidence it's substantially more spreadable than the EU1 strain.

There may be some stuff about how much spreadable it is in 12-18 year olds, age groups in their 20s and 30s. This makes sense without getting into games about blaming particular age groups.


----------



## fossyant (20 Dec 2020)

With all the dithering, people are thinking fark it. A friend is travelling to her sons, from Manchester to Hull on Boxing Day, then to a friend in Lincoln in the evening to stay overnight. Lots of folk fled London last night on trains.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> What's this 'support bubble' for those living alone and feeling isolated and lonely,the idiot Johnson talks about? Is it some kind of official thing we can contact,or does it just mean we are allowed a friend round or similar? 🤔



If you live on your own (you do ), you're allowed to bubble with another household, which means you can have a friend around, or similar. But it must always be the same person. The friend can't bubble with anyone else, the friends' potential housemates cannot bubble with anyone else. This has tended to mean that a lot of bubbles cannot form.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/making-a-support-bubble-with-another-household

There's also Christmas support bubble, but that's only now relevant to the population of England minus those that might bubble up with someone in tier 4 households, and it's only relevant for Christmas Day.


----------



## Accy cyclist (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> If you live on your own (you do ), you're allowed to bubble with another household, which means you can have a friend around, or similar. But it must always be the same person. The friend can't bubble with anyone else, the friends' potential housemates cannot bubble with anyone else. This has tended to mean that a lot of bubbles cannot form.
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/guidance/making-a-support-bubble-with-another-household
> 
> There's also Christmas support bubble, but that's only now relevant to the population of England minus those that might bubble up with someone in tier 4 households, and it's only relevant for Christmas Day.


Thanks for that!👍 So my ex missus and daughter can't come round to see me? They didn't need an excuse before,but if they now have one no way will they come round!


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## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Thanks for that!👍 So my ex missus and daughter can't come round to see me? They didn't need an excuse before,but if they now have one no way will they come round!


I’m guessing most would not want an ex round for Christmas so win win


----------



## Accy cyclist (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> I’m guessing most would not want an ex round for Christmas so win win


I try and stay on friendly terms with her. It's a bit like a prison visit. Half an hour of small talk then that's it till next year.


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## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The prime places I get exposed to others indoors are the supermarkets. I suspect this may the case for many others who don't have young children, who will have daily playground and school gates exposure. So, I've been running around buying stuff for a festival I dread and, in doing so, have increased the chances of becoming infected and spreading infection. All for nothing, bar the wasted money and the food I cannot eat. I wonder how many people have been similarly increasing their infection risk all for nothing.


So they leave it at 5 days relax of rules then and risk huge increase in infection rate and a hard lockdown nation wide.... it’s a no win situation for any government.


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## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> I try and stay on friendly terms with her. It's a bit like a prison visit. Half an hour of small talk then that's it till next year.


You can always refuse the visiting order just like a real prison


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## Accy cyclist (20 Dec 2020)

I'm wondering how much the 'mass exodus' from London yesterday has spread this 'super strain' of the virus to all parts of the country?🤔


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## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> Thanks for that!👍 So my ex missus and daughter can't come round to see me? They didn't need an excuse before,but if they now have one no way will they come round!



Use your judgement on who the best person to form a bubble with, if you can of course, which yeah a lot of people cannot.

It's a very mixed bag the bubble business, it's better than no policy, but depending on who you read about/have communications with it can be pretty isolating as some have the experience of everyone else being able to form bubbles but them. There are a lot out there that can form bubbles, but also a lot that cannot.


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## kingrollo (20 Dec 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> I'm wondering how much the 'mass exodus' from London yesterday has spread this 'super strain' of the virus to all parts of the country?🤔



Well they were probably people who were planning to leave anyway.


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## deptfordmarmoset (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> So they leave it at 5 days relax of rules then and risk huge increase in infection rate and a hard lockdown nation wide.... it’s a no win situation for any government.


No, they make decisions earlier. We have a dither, delay and deny cycle here. If we had reduced the dithering and delaying, and got to the deny stage earlier, fewer of us would have been out increasing infection risk. And sooner or later, the government is going to have to do a U-turn on keeping schools open because that's driving up infection. But, having elevated schooling as a guiding principle and holding to it wrong-headedly - a bit like this year's Exmas - the government is keeping us in another fatal dither and delay stage.


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## oldwheels (20 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The prime places I get exposed to others indoors are the supermarkets. I suspect this may the case for many others who don't have young children, who will have daily playground and school gates exposure. So, I've been running around buying stuff for a festival I dread and, in doing so, have increased the chances of becoming infected and spreading infection. All for nothing, bar the wasted money and the food I cannot eat. I wonder how many people have been similarly increasing their infection risk all for nothing.


Anything I cannot eat goes in the freezer so I have very little food waste and any there is goes in the garden compost so it gets recycled.


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## Accy cyclist (20 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Well they were probably people who were planning to leave anyway.


What gets me is that yes,maybe they were planning to leave,but by imposing such a strict lockdown the numbers leaving were probably multiplied many times. I thought we had a policy of no leaving and no entering strict lockdown areas? Here in Lancashire we have police stop points on the Lancs/North Yorkshire borders asking where you are going etc etc.🤔


----------



## oldwheels (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> If you live on your own (you do ), you're allowed to bubble with another household, which means you can have a friend around, or similar. But it must always be the same person. The friend can't bubble with anyone else, the friends' potential housemates cannot bubble with anyone else. This has tended to mean that a lot of bubbles cannot form.
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/guidance/making-a-support-bubble-with-another-household
> 
> There's also Christmas support bubble, but that's only now relevant to the population of England minus those that might bubble up with someone in tier 4 households, and it's only relevant for Christmas Day.


Bubble in Scotland often means weep, particularly applicable for children.


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## roubaixtuesday (20 Dec 2020)

Greenwich Council leader response to govt behaviour this week. 

@Tripster this is why people are so critical.

1. Deny there's a problem even when it's obvious. 

2. Act to directly exacerbate the situation. Criticise those pointing out the contradictions in strong terms. 

3. U turn late, resulting in more restrictions, cases, deaths and economic damage. 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLThorpe/status/1340592131312918529


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## Accy cyclist (20 Dec 2020)

I've been reading comments in the papers,on social media etc from some residents of Cornwall and Devon. They are fearing that many of those who left London to flee this 'tier 4' are heading to or have headed to their part of the country,especially Cornwall as it's in 'tier 1'. Many posts saying their hospitals could be overwhelmed by virus cases from London.


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## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> I've been reading comments in the papers,on social media etc from some residents of Cornwall and Devon. They are fearing that many of those who left London to flee this 'tier 4' are heading to or have headed to their part of the country,especially Cornwall as it's in 'tier 1'. Many posts saying their hospitals could be overwhelmed by virus cases from London.



New strains aside, sadly in parts of Devon, contrary to popular myth the virus is at higher levels than locals will admit. In West Devon (which borders cornwall) the 7 day average was 115 cases per 100,000 on 14th December dataset and East Devon which borders Somerset and Dorset, it's 150 per 100,000.

This sort of denial is going on in bits of Norfolk, cambridgeshire, sussex, surrey and all over the place. People tend to quote old figures when it suits them or hyper local ones. Chunks of the south west outside avon/bristol area should be in tier 3. They won't be until it gets really bad to keep the frigging tory MPs happy.

I do worry about places outside of the bottom right, as this exodus will make things even worse, but it's already bad and about to get worse.


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## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

And yes, you guessed it, as Cornwall is now bordering areas with high cases, Cornwall should probably be in tier 2 (cue tons of moaning).


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## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> No, they make decisions earlier. We have a dither, delay and deny cycle here. If we had reduced the dithering and delaying, and got to the deny stage earlier, fewer of us would have been out increasing infection risk. And sooner or later, the government is going to have to do a U-turn on keeping schools open because that's driving up infection. But, having elevated schooling as a guiding principle and holding to it wrong-headedly - a bit like this year's Exmas - the government is keeping us in another fatal dither and delay stage.



This nervtag stuff, whenever it's published and 2-3 week's time when more evidence comes to light, I think the government will once and for all have to decouple primary schools from secondary schools and colleges. 

Even with mass testing, things need looking at again and very hard choices on secondary schools for the spring term.


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## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> No, they make decisions earlier. We have a dither, delay and deny cycle here. If we had reduced the dithering and delaying, and got to the deny stage earlier, fewer of us would have been out increasing infection risk. And sooner or later, the government is going to have to do a U-turn on keeping schools open because that's driving up infection. But, having elevated schooling as a guiding principle and holding to it wrong-headedly - a bit like this year's Exmas - the government is keeping us in another fatal dither and delay stage.


And the rest of the world has not dithered in anyway at all because this is unprecedented for anyone ? Trying to home school kids and keep a job is not that easy when you are a key worker and cannot work from home, it was a bloody difficult time for us parents


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## vickster (20 Dec 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> What's this 'support bubble' for those living alone and feeling isolated and lonely,the idiot Johnson talks about? Is it some kind of official thing we can contact,or does it just mean we are allowed a friend round or similar? 🤔


Yes you can join up with one other household in same tier preferably. It was announced months ago ...
So if you’re lonely you could form a bubble with another non bubbled household


----------



## kingrollo (20 Dec 2020)

Accy cyclist said:


> What gets me is that yes,maybe they were planning to leave,but by imposing such a strict lockdown the numbers leaving were probably multiplied many times. I thought we had a policy of no leaving and no entering strict lockdown areas? Here in Lancashire we have police stop points on the Lancs/North Yorkshire borders asking where you are going etc etc.🤔



We don't know the make up of last night's leavers. My guess it was people intending to leave between yesterday and Christmas Eve - left last night.
Some guy talking about it on the news - said it wasn't as busy as a London rush hour - and footfall was heavier on Thursday and Friday.


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## kingrollo (20 Dec 2020)

Looks like a total change of strategy. Lockdown s may stay until the vaccine rollout is well underway.


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## Adam4868 (20 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We don't know the make up of last night's leavers. My guess it was people intending to leave between yesterday and Christmas Eve - left last night.
> Some guy talking about it on the news - said it wasn't as busy as a London rush hour - and footfall was heavier on Thursday and Friday.


Tier 4 and supporting Arsenal...I almost feel for our southern friends.


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## deptfordmarmoset (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> And the rest of the world has not dithered in anyway at all because this is unprecedented for anyone ? Trying to home school kids and keep a job is not that easy when you are a key worker and cannot work from home, it was a bloody difficult time for us parents


Schools were meant to be kept open for children of key workers. Damage limitation.


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## tom73 (20 Dec 2020)

What I going to say is in no way aimed at pepole who now find they will be spending Christmas alone. Many of whom have spent much of the year in the same situation. Doing all they can to stay safe I do not underestimate the effects of loneliness and the harm it brings. Or for ones who won't see next Christmas this last minute change is horrible and will feel totally unfair. 

Niether do I have a problem with the ones who have always planned to do the right thing not just protect loves ones but others who you will never meet. Even if it means not seeing family or having to find other ways to enjoy the day in a safe way. 

I really can't be going with one the likes of the ones plastered all over the media complaining that this years "middle class dickens Christmas" can't happen. They will still get to meet others and have a good time just not on the 25th. Then coming out with I understand but..... sorry but that won't wash either. Grow up and plan for more happier times. They need to think almost 70,000 families will never get that chance. Many never got to say goodbye or have a lasting image of them being wheeled into ambulance never to return. 

As for the political clowns of all colours coming out with we never spotted this coming or it makes be want to cry and all the other crap. Christmas was going to be a car crash long before this point and it's been clear change had to happen. It's your failings that have lead to this and the ever growing long list of failings. Putting the economy first at all cost comes with a very expensive human price tag. 

So sorry for this but seeing the effect this is having on your wife since this whole mess started it get's to you sometimes. Only in the last week due to low hospital beds she's had to watch 5 of her patients become critical before the hospital will touch them. Knowing it not going to end well coming home and crying as she thinks she's failed.


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## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Schools were meant to be kept open for children of key workers. Damage limitation.


Limited spaces and we didn’t get one so with me away and wife a key worker we relied on a furloughed grandparent which won’t happen again next time so one of us will be on unpaid leave if we don’t get a space. Not as simple as what you think.


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## deptfordmarmoset (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> Limited spaces and we didn’t get one so with me away and wife a key worker we relied on a furloughed grandparent which won’t happen again next time so one of us will be on unpaid leave if we don’t get a space. Not as simple as what you think.


I sympathise with your situation but keeping the schools open after the Christmas break will do nothing to prevent a bad situation deteriorating, IMO.


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## shep (20 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> All those earning the minimum wage say hi


?


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## FishFright (20 Dec 2020)

The numbers where I live are really bad with one area that was 400+ per 100k for a while but it's slowly dropping now.


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## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Looks like a total change of strategy. Lockdown s may stay until the vaccine rollout is well underway.



That was going to happen anyway.

Do any of the vaccines stop transmission in any meaningful way? If yes, then yes some restrictions may come off Feb/March/April/May. If it doesn't stop transmission and there are vaccine supply problems and the 'new' strain takes hold in population centres outside the bottom right then there may no be no 'lockdown' in late spring/summer, but people might be in a surprisingly high tier. Whether anyone calls that lockdown who knows.

Current capacity extrapolating from the last few days is 2 million vaccinations a month. No one's had the second jab yet... Matt Hancock has promised more. If the oxford vaccine got used it's theoretically possible to double that based roughly on issues around giving flu jabs which are easier even with fridge storage. Beyond that it's hard to see what with needing 2 doses on most vaccines.


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## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

Paper published on the new strain https://virological.org/t/prelimina...defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563 

I expect other stuff will follow shortly.


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## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I sympathise with your situation but keeping the schools open after the Christmas break will do nothing to prevent a bad situation deteriorating, IMO.


Maybe that’s true but mass school closure only serves to make the situation even worse for many. I know of a fair few people who ended up with no job because they had to be at home for children. I don’t think either option is good but then as I say it’s a no win situation for anyone or the government


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## nickyboy (20 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> We don't know the make up of last night's leavers. My guess it was people intending to leave between yesterday and Christmas Eve - left last night.
> Some guy talking about it on the news - said it wasn't as busy as a London rush hour - and footfall was heavier on Thursday and Friday.


As an example a friend has a son working in London. Son planning to come home later this week for Xmas. Tier 4 announced so he got on the next train north last night. Everyone masked up on the train but he will get a test before Xmas day when relatives come for lunch. Not sure what more he could do other than staying in London on his own over Xmas. If I were him I would have done exactly the same


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## Pale Rider (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> No one's had the second jab yet



An acquaintance of mine was among the first to get the vaccine in Sunderland last week.

His booster is on January 6.

From what I can gather, the roll out is progressing fairly smoothly, although some people in Sunderland have been asked to travel to Seaham to be vaccinated.

That's only six miles, but it's a bit of a hike if you are elderly, already unwell, and don't drive.


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## Wobblers (20 Dec 2020)

Mo1959 said:


> Just be me and the cat



Same here.

Well, except for the cat!


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## tom73 (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> That was going to happen anyway.
> 
> Do any of the vaccines stop transmission in any meaningful way? If yes, then yes some restrictions may come off Feb/March/April/May. If it doesn't stop transmission and there are vaccine supply problems and the 'new' strain takes hold in population centres outside the bottom right then there may no be no 'lockdown' in late spring/summer, but people might be in a surprisingly high tier. Whether anyone calls that lockdown who knows.
> 
> Current capacity extrapolating from the last few days is 2 million vaccinations a month. No one's had the second jab yet... Matt Hancock has promised more. If the oxford vaccine got used it's theoretically possible to double that based roughly on issues around giving flu jabs which are easier even with fridge storage. Beyond that it's hard to see what with needing 2 doses on most vaccines.



This "new" strain won't stay put and "tier 4 just don't mention lockdown" is likely to be coming down the line for good few of us. They just need to look at the "mass evacuation" last night to see it's good.
Hancock just keeps ducking the question I really believe he has no clue just what a massive job this is. Or if he's even looking at the data that's freely available. To just what's at stake if things carry on without real effective interventions before crap starts to happen. Yes this virus is new but knowing what basic interventions work for infectious disease are not. Throwing round rapid flow tests as some magic way out of this is just the next on a long list of distractions.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> An acquaintance of mine was among the first to get the vaccine in Sunderland last week.
> 
> His booster is on January 6.
> 
> ...



It's massively difficult, but it's only 400 sites doing it, up from 100. Pfizer said themselves that after 12 days of the first jab there is some level of protection. 

The roll out the first couple of days had tiny numbers, it's believed that on day 1 5000 people were vaccinated and on day 2 a bit shy of 10,000. The government aren't saying explicitly yet, but it looks like it's 60,000-75,000 a day at the moment. Governments being governments they didn't want to say this explicitly just incase an innumerate journalist started criticising/think the population are too stupid to know.

The good news on the higher rate of giving them out isn't really that though. Tranche 1 was 375,000. The higher rate the last few days means that secretly shipments 2/3? have come into the country. There's been a lot of confusion in the media because it's believed we'll run out of the pfizer vaccine sometime in January and the government haven't explicitly said how many a day are getting vaccinated or that more has arrived. To me it seems plausible that the the true explanation is what BioNTech said that by the end of the year the UK would get 4-6 million vaccines, that's 2-3 million people. The extrapolated vaccination rate for that runs about January, so it makes sense. 

There were the first vaccinations in Derbyshire last week, which is not very far away and puzzled a lot of people as a Derbyshire hospital was prominently on the list 50 places to get it. Started though.

Of course that changes completely if the Oxford vaccine gets emergency licencing, but it's nice to be cautious and try and deal with definites or things that you're pretty sure are going to happen.


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## Johnno260 (20 Dec 2020)

A big thing I still feel is people not sticking to the rules and social distancing etc, when using supermarkets people don’t stay apart people aren’t wearing masks.

I have now 2-3 relatives I have had massive arguments with as they refuse to acknowledge the virus even exists and carry on as normal, which I find a total slap in the face to every death and family dealing with a lose, to the key workers keeping things running and the NHS staff on the front lines.
One relative I can’t see I will ever repair the burnt bridges with after, they said my wife’s just a paid actress who parrots what she is told to say.

social media has a lot to answer for, and it gives a platform to people with twisted opinions.


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## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> This "new" strain won't stay put and "tier 4 just don't mention lockdown" is likely to be coming down the line for good few of us. They just need to look at the "mass evacuation" last night to see it's good.
> Hancock just keeps ducking the question I really believe he has no clue just what a massive job this is. Or if he's even looking at the data that's freely available. To just what's at stake if things carry on without real effective interventions before crap starts to happen. Yes this virus is new but knowing what basic interventions work for infectious disease are not. Throwing round rapid flow tests as some magic way out of this is just the next on a long list of distractions.



I didn't post to not upset another poster.

The bordering areas for tier 4/2 are simply a complete nonsense. We all had people staring at a map of kent that was mostly red and people ringing up talk in shows shouting it isn't in my bit of kent (because they can't read a map/deliberately filtering out what they don't want to hear). This has happened with sussex and surrey.

The map what it looks like today (left) and what it should look like today in my opinion and will do very soon (this is on the conservative side sadly and really probably be more tier 3 and tier 4 on there than what I've marked up). Interestingly enough both sky and the guardian have made mistakes on their maps before they went out. Many, many, many of the areas I've painted in tier 3 deeper red are you guessed it, tory voting areas.


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## Joey Shabadoo (20 Dec 2020)

Pariah state



> A number of European countries have or are considering banning travel from the UK to prevent the spread of a more infectious variant of coronavirus.
> 
> Both the Netherlands and Belgium have suspended flights. Trains to Belgium have also been banned.
> 
> Italy's foreign minister has indicated his government plans to ban flights. France and Germany are among others reportedly planning similar action.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55385768


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## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> I didn't post to not upset another poster.
> 
> The bordering areas for tier 4/2 are simply a complete nonsense. We all had people staring at a map of kent that was mostly red and people ringing up talk in shows shouting it isn't in my bit of kent (because they can't read a map/deliberately filtering out what they don't want to hear). This has happened with sussex and surrey.
> 
> ...


What does that have to do with it ?


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> What does that have to do with it ?



Come on, there's no need to be obtuse. What do you think it has to do with it? Tory MPs going on talk shows, appearing on tv going on about how cases are really 'low' in their area and they don't agree with the tiered system would really like to stay in tier 1/2 if there's a tiered system at all.


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## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Come on, there's no need to be obtuse. What do you think it has to do with it? Tory MPs going on talk shows, appearing on tv going on about how cases are really 'low' in their area and they don't agree with the tiered system would really like to stay in tier 1/2 if there's a tiered system at all.


🙄 As you say, it’s your opinion....


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## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> 🙄



You are a person, not a politician. Generally also the labour voting areas who have had politicians who are a lot keener on restrictions and sooner, providing cash follows restrictions.


----------



## classic33 (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Come on, there's no need to be obtuse. What do you think it has to do with it? Tory MPs going on talk shows, appearing on tv going on about how cases are really 'low' in their area and they don't agree with the tiered system would really like to stay in tier 1/2 if there's a tiered system at all.


Calder Valley MP, Conservative, said earlier this year that relaxing the rules and placing The Valley in a lower tier, was the wrong thing to do.


----------



## fossyant (20 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> As an example a friend has a son working in London. Son planning to come home later this week for Xmas. Tier 4 announced so he got on the next train north last night. Everyone masked up on the train but he will get a test before Xmas day when relatives come for lunch. Not sure what more he could do other than staying in London on his own over Xmas. If I were him I would have done exactly the same



Daft question, but can your friend's son just roll up for a test round here without symptoms - not aware we have that 'facility'.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

classic33 said:


> Calder Valley MP, Conservative, said earlier this year that relaxing the rules and placing The Valley in a lower tier, was the wrong thing to do.



I've seen two tory MPs that said that, I've seen another two that have effectively said that but dressed up to address both sides. I've seen 30 or 40 other MPs in areas marked not agreeing with the tier system.

It's good that MPs already under it see sense, but the reality is on the five measures to assess tiering there is/was a gigantic reluctance to move tory tier 2 areas to tier 3. Boris does move eventually, but there's an incredible reluctance. 

Some of the areas with the MPs may escape tier 3 for a good while out of luck, geography and demographics and access to the ear of Boris, but many others won't.

For many of us in tier 3 that have been a good while, even though we may be in tier 3/4 /till Feb/March/April it does matter what tier other areas far away are in.


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## Johnno260 (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> The bordering areas for tier 4/2 are simply a complete nonsense.



I think a village in Kent got cut in 2? Was one pub in Groombridge allowed to open as in Sussex and the other pub a stones throw away shut due to a borderline?


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> Daft question, but can your friend's son just roll up for a test round here without symptoms - not aware we have that 'facility'.



A lot of the areas that have been promised mass testing, it hasn't arrived yet. It could be a yes, it could be a no!


----------



## stowie (20 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> Daft question, but can your friend's son just roll up for a test round here without symptoms - not aware we have that 'facility'.



In London, myself and my daughter had a test yesterday without any symptoms. Not sure if this is a scheme being implemented across the UK, or just hotspot areas. We were prompted to get tested after my daughter was told to self-isolate due to a number of her classmates testing positive. The local schools and council implemented school testing last week and the results have been very worrying.

Long queue of people (waited over an hour for the test) - many with school children, so a lot of us seem to be in the same situation.


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## fossyant (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> A lot of the areas that have been promised mass testing, it hasn't arrived yet. It could be a yes, it could be a no!



I'm not aware of any roll up testing for non-symptomatic folk here in Manchester - nic's only down the road from us. Maybe there is ?


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> I'm not aware of any roll up testing for non-symptomatic folk here in Manchester - nic's only down the road from us. Maybe there is ?



All I know is this rather vague article https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55287391

Around here I know Kirklees does actually have mass testing finally, rotherham and barnsley are supposed to have it but I'm not sure. Here no, although bizarrely I could have got a uni test.


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## roubaixtuesday (20 Dec 2020)

A little detail starts to emerge. NERVTAG (science committee minutes) have been published. 

Estimated increase in R from new variant 0.39-0.93. By comparison, closing all schools is estimated to reduce R by 0.4. I'm still sceptical it's really that bad, R estimates for this are very difficult, but that's really just personal speculation. 

Terrible case numbers today too, 35,000

It's doubling every 6 days under tier 3. That's ~100x increase by end Jan. I think we're now into "full national lock down until vulnerable are vaccinated" territory, unless those estimates are significantly out. 

Doubtless that won't be announced until Johnson has repeatedly promised not to, insulted anyone who suggests it and then waited until the absolute last moment. 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1340667844741230594


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Dec 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> I think a village in Kent got cut in 2? Was one pub in Groombridge allowed to open as in Sussex and the other pub a stones throw away shut due to a borderline?


Yes, that's correct. Well, I don't know which side was allowed to open but it was definitely Groombridge


----------



## pawl (20 Dec 2020)

Have other countries seen a change in the virus I am assuming not as they are banning travel to some European countries


----------



## tom73 (20 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> I'm not aware of any roll up testing for non-symptomatic folk here in Manchester - nic's only down the road from us. Maybe there is ?



Just ask Loughborough University if they have any spare student ones they've just handed some over to a Cathedral Choir to use so they can all have a sing song. So the taxpayer has paid for a round of church tests nice to see the church being so selfless.


----------



## nickyboy (20 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> Daft question, but can your friend's son just roll up for a test round here without symptoms - not aware we have that 'facility'.


Son #2 did exactly that a couple of months ago when he was back from university. Booked a slot online and just turned up. It was very quiet at that time so he wasn't taking a slot from anyone who needed it. He isolated at our home for 36 hours then got the all clear.
You're not supposed to do this unless you've got symptoms but if there is excess testing capacity I regard this as a positive use of the facility. The alternative is that you return home, mingle and hope for the best


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Dec 2020)

pawl said:


> Have other countries seen a change in the virus I am assuming not as they are banning travel to some European countries



European assessment here


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1340688614200659970


----------



## nickyboy (20 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> I'm not aware of any roll up testing for non-symptomatic folk here in Manchester - nic's only down the road from us. Maybe there is ?


Sorry, to clarify this was not Lateral Flow testing. Hence the need to isolate until the results are given. That's what my friend's son is doing now. Lateral Flow isn't accurate enough to risk Granny on Xmas Day anyway


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> A little detail starts to emerge. NERVTAG (science committee minutes) have been published.
> 
> Estimated increase in R from new variant 0.39-0.93. By comparison, closing all schools is estimated to reduce R by 0.4. I'm still sceptical it's really that bad, R estimates for this are very difficult, but that's really just personal speculation.
> 
> ...



Explains John Edmunds's comments yesterday, because he was at the meeting!

Interesting the trio yesterday used the minumum estimates on R and added spreadability as a percentage.

That report is far more forthright in it's language than Boris, Whitty, Valance and Hopkins suggested.


----------



## Bazzer (20 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> I'm not aware of any roll up testing for non-symptomatic folk here in Manchester - nic's only down the road from us. Maybe there is ?


One of my sister's children was sent home as part of his whole year being sent home because of a confirmed case in another class. He, along with his whole year, was told to isolate. This buggered up a planned meeting with the local health services about some serious problems he has had for some time and would have delayed matters beyond Christmas. Probably not within the rules about testing, but my nephew developed "a cough". Got a test and he was clear so the meeting went ahead.


----------



## tom73 (20 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> A little detail starts to emerge. NERVTAG (science committee minutes) have been published.
> 
> Estimated increase in R from new variant 0.39-0.93. By comparison, closing all schools is estimated to reduce R by 0.4. I'm still sceptical it's really that bad, R estimates for this are very difficult, but that's really just personal speculation.
> 
> ...




Whitty made it clear that tier 3 was just about holding down hospital admissions but it won't hold up to large numbers of new variant cases. 
He made the point when asked what people should do if they last night they packed a bag and looking to leave a now tier 4 area. He did not want people to travel and was more than clear about what was a stake. Given seen last night it's just a matter of time so nice to see the good old British common sense in action.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

According to PHE there is actually a lot of spare capacity knocking around (100,000-200,000 tests per day).

I have no idea why this is, but this is the official numbers.


----------



## tom73 (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> According to PHE there is actually a lot of spare capacity knocking around (100,000-200,000 tests per day).
> 
> I have no idea why this is, but this is the official numbers.


Wonder how much of that is people who won't get tested as they can't afford to stay off work ? 
The report into Liverpool mass test showed in poor areas only 8% came forward not surprising as it also pointed out in the same areas 80% who asked for the £500 got turned down.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Dec 2020)

That 6 day doubling time I mentioned...

Recent London data 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1340702230962466817


*if* the new variant is what's driving this, we can be sure it's not confined to London, and should expect this to be repeated nationwide. 

Action required, nationwide, now. I can see no rational reason only to act in London.

(I'm still a little sceptical about the significance of the new variant, but there are very few downsides of acting, and potentially catastrophic consequences of delay)


----------



## Tripster (20 Dec 2020)

The plus side to all this is there will be a lot of people thanking the restrictions that they don’t have to be subjected to a Christmas dinner round such and such house and constant conversation about Government restrictions, what they did wrong, COVID graphs and charts and then the inevitable Brexit ‘Give me a benefit’ lecture..... some will think this is the best Christmas ever


----------



## Adam4868 (20 Dec 2020)

Poor old Nige.


----------



## Johnno260 (20 Dec 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Poor old Nige.
> View attachment 564255



he is a classic case of saying stuff like that and his followers thinking the same.

my colleague in the states has suffered horrific racial abuse since this all started, take your flu back to China etc, he is Korean.


----------



## Unkraut (20 Dec 2020)

Hot off the press: my better half has just told me that the German government has banned flights from (but not to) the UK as of midnight tonight. This is to prevent the spread of the new strain. Several other European governments are doing the same.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Hot off the press: my better half has just told me that the German government has banned flights from (but not to) the UK as of midnight tonight. This is to prevent the spread of the new strain. Several other European governments are doing the same.


I'm surprised France hasn't anounced yet.

Oops, spoke too soon. They just did.


----------



## tom73 (20 Dec 2020)

It's highly likely it's in the rest of europe anyway and has been for some time.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (20 Dec 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Poor old Nige.
> View attachment 564255



If only that reply were true


----------



## Adam4868 (20 Dec 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> If only that reply were true


What you don't think he talks sh1t ?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (20 Dec 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> What you don't think he talks sh1t ?



I wasn’t making a comment on that opinion just that the supposed Chinese comment was true. Which it isn’t.


----------



## Adam4868 (20 Dec 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I wasn’t making a comment on that opinion just that the supposed Chinese comment was true. Which it isn’t.


 Never....I bet you tell people the punchline of jokes before they've finished


----------



## Ming the Merciless (20 Dec 2020)

Adam4868 said:


> Never....I bet you tell people the punchline of jokes before they've finished



Nope, but that’d be a different context.


----------



## mjr (20 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> It's highly likely it's in the rest of europe anyway and has been for some time.


When they said it was first spotted in Kent, one does suspect it is an unintentional import.


----------



## mjr (20 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Yes, that's correct. Well, I don't know which side was allowed to open but it was definitely Groombridge


I think that may be the village across a border with a pub each side.

Businesses actually straddling borders are really screwed because the higher of its tiers applies to the whole place


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> I think that may be the village across a border with a pub each side.
> 
> Businesses actually straddling borders are really screwed because the higher of its tiers applies to the whole place



Don't think it'll matter for much longer.

Wealden District in East Sussex will be joining them soon either in tier 3 or tier 4.


----------



## RoadRider400 (20 Dec 2020)




----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> When they said it was first spotted in Kent, one does suspect it is an unintentional import.


And unintentional export too: Italy have reported the new strain in an Italian couple returning to Rome from the UK


----------



## classic33 (20 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> I'm not aware of any roll up testing for non-symptomatic folk here in Manchester - nic's only down the road from us. Maybe there is ?


Test centre not that far from me. I've been twice, no QR/barcode/appointment required. I just walked in.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (20 Dec 2020)

classic33 said:


> Test centre not that far from me. I've been twice, no QR/barcode/appointment required. I just walked in.



What prompted you to visit?


----------



## classic33 (20 Dec 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> What prompted you to visit?


Missed my bus, that simple. Went past on foot, enquired(no signage saying what was going on), and got tested.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> What prompted you to visit?



Guessing you do not live in a mass testing area.

I live in a council and a county that has been promised it, but 3 out of 4 councils don't have it yet. Although there was a plan to have it last week in 2 councils, maybe it did happen after all but not communicated.


----------



## classic33 (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Guessing you do not live in a mass testing area.
> 
> I live in a council and a county that has been promised it, but 3 out of 4 councils don't have it yet. Although there was a plan to have it last week in 2 councils, maybe it did happen after all but not communicated.


Those staffing the site* I went to feel there's not enough local people actually using the testing centre.

Many are coming from neighbouring boroughs. Or, locally from some miles away, with at least one other testing station being closer.

*Opened the end of May, three days a week, now open four days a week.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Guessing you do not live in a mass testing area.
> 
> I live in a council and a county that has been promised it, but 3 out of 4 councils don't have it yet. Although there was a plan to have it last week in 2 councils, maybe it did happen after all but not communicated.



I don’t, now gone tier 3 then tier 4 in 24 hours. But no mass testing.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

YukonBoy said:


> I don’t, now gone tier 3 then tier 4 in 24 hours. But no mass testing.



Been tier 3 here for a good while, but of the around 70 areas promised mass testing a month? or so ago many still don't have it.

Having said that, this area probably doesn't really need mass testing as a priority any more, the capacity should be sent to various places in the home counties.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

Updated 7 day data to 16th December out. Even scarier than the 7 day data to the 14th. 

Mole Valley that one poster talked of is now 250 per 100,000. Gigantic increases in East Anglia.


----------



## DCLane (20 Dec 2020)

Lots of new rapid test centres this week near me in Kirklees, to support the standard test centre that have been here for months.

However, vaccinations have been postponed whilst they build a vaccination centre for the whole area.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Action required, nationwide, now. I can see no rational reason only to act in London.
> 
> (I'm still a little sceptical about the significance of the new variant, but there are very few downsides of acting, and potentially catastrophic consequences of delay)



I think the new figures are brutally clear that the new variant being a lot more spreadable is plausible. If it ain't that, then something else is very wrong also that needs sorting out with tighter restrictions and other things.

These new 7 day numbers to the 16th December, updated by a mere 2 days are catastrophic. The whole of the south of England at the very least needs putting in tier 3-4 in the next couple of days. Looks like Devon's going to get absolutely battered. A few rural hideouts might stave it off for a bit Isle of Wight, Dorset, Herefordshire, bits of Wiltshire. Maybe.


----------



## tom73 (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think the new figures are brutally clear that the new variant being a lot more spreadable is plausible. If it ain't that, then something else is very wrong also that needs sorting out with tighter restrictions and other things.
> 
> These new 7 day numbers to the 16th December, updated by a mere 2 days are catastrophic. The whole of the south of England at the very least needs putting in tier 3-4 in the next couple of days. Looks like Devon's going to get absolutely battered. A few rural hideouts might stave it off for a bit Isle of Wight, Dorset, Herefordshire, bits of Wiltshire. Maybe.


Sad but true then again that means being proactive something which looks to be beyond them.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> I think the new figures are brutally clear that the new variant being a lot more spreadable is plausible. If it ain't that, then something else is very wrong also that needs sorting out with tighter restrictions and other things.
> 
> These new 7 day numbers to the 16th December, updated by a mere 2 days are catastrophic. The whole of the south of England at the very least needs putting in tier 3-4 in the next couple of days. Looks like Devon's going to get absolutely battered. A few rural hideouts might stave it off for a bit Isle of Wight, Dorset, Herefordshire, bits of Wiltshire. Maybe.



Why just the south? It'll be everywhere. Just the south is delaying the inevitable elsewhere, and making it worse when it does come, surely.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Why just the south? It'll be everywhere. Just the south is delaying the inevitable elsewhere, and making it worse when it does come, surely.



It does need to be everywhere as in Wales and sort of Scotland (although one lower tier area is looking bad  there ) , but Boris isn't going to do that. We're already in tier 3. It's true that some bits of the north of England are still in tier 2 I suppose.

The figures for Wales are very grim too.


----------



## midlife (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> It does need to be everywhere as in Wales and sort of Scotland (although one lower tier area is looking bad  there ) , but Boris isn't going to do that. We're already in tier 3. It's true that some bits of the north of England are still in tier 2 I suppose.
> 
> The figures for Wales are very grim too.



Up here in Cumbria we are tier 2. Not sure for how long given what's happening. Europe closed its borders to UK for 2 days...


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> It does need to be everywhere as in Wales and sort of Scotland (although one lower tier area is looking bad  there ) , but Boris isn't going to do that. We're already in tier 3. It's true that some bits of the north of England are still in tier 2 I suppose.
> 
> The figures for Wales are very grim too.


The Zoe app is showing Welsh figures, particularly S Wales, of course, as astronomical. I know the figures change from day to day but not by so that much that they can be discounted as a blip.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> Up here in Cumbria we are tier 2. Not sure for how long given what's happening. Europe closed its borders to UK for 2 days...



Copeland is still 26 per 100,000 on 7 day 16th December data, but Eden is now 229 per 100,000, South Lakeland 176.

Areas in Cheshire that are tier 2 have clocked some very large rises. North Yorkshire's somewhere in the middle.


----------



## midlife (20 Dec 2020)

Have you the data for Carlisle to the 16th?


----------



## mjr (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Updated 7 day data to 16th December out. Even scarier than the 7 day data to the 14th.
> 
> Mole Valley that one poster talked of is now 250 per 100,000. Gigantic increases in East Anglia.


Loads of Chelsea tractors with London area garage tags on number plates or windows in car park at the Norfolk coast today. Maybe many came up last night? If new variant isn't already here, I'll be astonished.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> If new variant isn't already here, I'll be astonished



It'll have been there for a while now, *if* it's as transmissable as the early data suggests.

We need to act on the assumption that it's everywhere, or we will, yet again, regret the dithering at our leisure.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> Have you the data for Carlisle to the 16th?



No. I'll have a look tomorrow. It may appear. It's mostly the Guardian I've been looking at and a lot put the data by different boundaries.

Carlisle was 110 per 100,000 on the old old data. The whole of Cumbria is 126 per 100,000 on the old data. South and South West of Carlisle were looking very high already on the old data at high reses to draw too much from.


----------



## midlife (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> No. I'll have a look tomorrow. It may appear. It's mostly the Guardian I've been looking at and a lot put the data by different boundaries.
> 
> Carlisle was 110 per 100,000 on the old old data. The whole of Cumbria is 126 per 100,000 on the old data. South and South West of Carlisle were looking very high already on the old data at high reses to draw too much from.



Thanks.


----------



## mjr (20 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> The map what it looks like today (left) and what it should look like today in my opinion and will do very soon (this is on the conservative side sadly and really probably be more tier 3 and tier 4 on there than what I've marked up). Interestingly enough both sky and the guardian have made mistakes on their maps before they went out. Many, many, many of the areas I've painted in tier 3 deeper red are you guessed it, tory voting areas.
> 
> View attachment 564219
> View attachment 564220


Why should there be a new island off the north east English coast?


----------



## tom73 (20 Dec 2020)

The hospital admission numbers are getting more grim by the day. The next few days are going to see some trusts sailing very close to wind.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> The hospital admission numbers are getting more grim by the day. The next few days are going to see some trusts sailing very close to wind.



Case numbers have been doubling every 6 days in London. Can expect hospital admissions to follow suit for a minimum of a week. Wales also in deep trouble. 

We need to act now, ahead of the game just for once, in the rest of the country, *before* we get to that point everywhere.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Why should there be a new island off the north east English coast?



We're going to need it .


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Loads of Chelsea tractors with London area garage tags on number plates or windows in car park at the Norfolk coast today. Maybe many came up last night? If new variant isn't already here, I'll be astonished.



East of England. The time axes go up to the 15th December.


----------



## marinyork (20 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> Thanks.



160 per 100,000 for the whole of Carlisle, but that's the old data to the 15th December. PHE do think the highest peak for Carlisle on the second wave so far was 294 per 100,000 though.


----------



## tom73 (21 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Case numbers have been doubling every 6 days in London. Can expect hospital admissions to follow suit for a minimum of a week. Wales also in deep trouble.
> 
> We need to act now, ahead of the game just for once, in the rest of the country, *before* we get to that point everywhere.


Which all adds to the real risk this new strain becomes well established in hospitals and other health care settings. All adding fuel on the fire for community transmission. Which set's up the NHS nicely for even greater staffing issues. Even if they see this next few days though staffing levels may not allow much leeway. Mrs 73 is already 11 trained staff down as it is.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Dec 2020)

National lock down essential now, before it's too late. Potential to be very bad indeed, easily capable of outrunning vaccination. Not yet certain, but likely enough. 

Science:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/kakape/status/1340790095520120834


Current spread:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/FriEda71111436/status/1340811592951345154


----------



## rogerzilla (21 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Loads of Chelsea tractors with London area garage tags on number plates or windows in car park at the Norfolk coast today. Maybe many came up last night? If new variant isn't already here, I'll be astonished.


About 5% of houses in the Cotswolds, more like 50% in the nice villages, are second homes for London-dwellers. The A419/A417 were apparently rather busy on Sat night as they took the new virus there.


----------



## tom73 (21 Dec 2020)

Anyone else found Hancock yesterday saying this new variant of the the virus is out of control. A bit rich as if the "old" virus was ever under control in the first place.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone else found Hancock yesterday saying this new variant of the the virus is out of control. A bit rich as if the "old" virus was ever under control in the first place.


It did feel like he was overplaying the drama to justify the government U-turn over Exmas.


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> Anyone else found Hancock yesterday saying this new variant of the the virus is out of control. A bit rich as if the "old" virus was ever under control in the first place.



His heart wasn't really in it yesterday. He'd had enough. Hayward's interview this morning he looked very tired. King from parallel universe SAGE and Grant Shapps the only ones that were not.


----------



## tom73 (21 Dec 2020)

Hospital data now fully integrated into government dashboard so now searchable by trust area. 
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare


----------



## tom73 (21 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> His heart wasn't really in it yesterday. He'd had enough. Hayward's interview this morning he looked very tired. King from parallel universe SAGE and Grant Shapps the only ones that were not.



My heart bleeds who's fault is that one ?


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

Grant Shapps has claimed on tv the UK is doing 50% of the genomic sequencing on strains in the world, which is quite a claim given a couple of other countries take this very seriously. It may be why some other countries are claiming not to have the 'new' strain.


----------



## cookiemonster (21 Dec 2020)

Hong Kong’s banned all passenger flights from the UK from midnight tonight our time, with the exception of a Cathay flight which was already in the air by the time an announcement was made. But those passengers will have to quarantine for 21 days, instead of the normal 14. 

A question. This strain was first seen in the UK in September. Why the 3 month wait?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Dec 2020)

Sweden bulletin.

A colleague's mother died of the disease at the weekend. She (my colleague) sings in a choir in Gothenburg. 60% of the choir have tested positive. The Sweden case rate is accelerating fast and despite our current predicament is still twice ours. 

We have MPs advocating that legal restrictions are wrong, and that giving people information and allowing them to make their own decisions is the way forward. Get thee to Sweden!


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Grant Shapps has claimed on tv the UK is doing 50% of the genomic sequencing on strains in the world, which is quite a claim given a couple of other countries take this very seriously. It may be why some other countries are claiming not to have the 'new' strain.


He did downsize the figure to 45% and then seemed to get fixated with words that begin with the letter v. Very very virulent virus variant, etc.


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> A question. This strain was first seen in the UK in September. Why the 3 month wait?



Wasn't sequenced till October. Intense observation started end of November.

2 to 3 week delay on genomic data.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Dec 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> Hong Kong’s banned all passenger flights from the UK from midnight tonight our time, with the exception of a Cathay flight which was already in the air by the time an announcement was made. But those passengers will have to quarantine for 21 days, instead of the normal 14.
> 
> A question. This strain was first seen in the UK in September. Why the 3 month wait?



The strain was detected back to Sept by retrospective analysis of historic samples, not tracked from sept in real time. 

They find new mutations all the time, the retrospective analyses were done only after it was realised the Kent outbreak was associated with a new variant.


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> He did downsize the figure to 45% and then seemed to get fixated with words that begin with the letter v. Very very virulent virus variant, etc.



Well he's right about the very in my opinion. 

WFH and having a break to watch morning tv and it's not really being taken that seriously.


----------



## kingrollo (21 Dec 2020)

As it stands the boxing day sales are still going ahead - would I be captain hindsight to suggest they shouldn't.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Wasn't sequenced till October. Intense observation started end of November.
> 
> 2 to 3 week delay on genomic data.


It would be interesting to know how Italy was able to confirm a couple of cases (UK returners to Italy already quarantining) so quickly.


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Wasn't sequenced till October. Intense observation started end of November.
> 
> 2 to 3 week delay on genomic data.



The NERVTAG report contains several strands of evidence and only one is genomic. Swabs have detected higher levels of this virus strain in patients than the bogstandard EU1 strain.

The problem is it calls it 'moderate' evidence which three scientists have explained means very substantial. 

PHE updates the data regularly and day to day there isn't much change. Now a day or two is seeing massive jumps over large geographic areas. Rural-ish and spacious suburban areas where you would expect things to spread a bit slower, nope. Same rate.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> As it stands the boxing day sales are still going ahead - would I be captain hindsight to suggest they shouldn't.



It's beyond ridiculous. 

Either
(1) We have a dangerously fast spreading new variant which will overwhelm the health service in short order, in which case we need to clamp down on it everywhere

or

(2) we don't, in which case the London/ South tier 4 restrictions should not be imposed. 

The unstated policy seems to be to allow cases to get to crisis point before acting. 

It's nuts. There's no logic.


----------



## kingrollo (21 Dec 2020)

.....and how come France seems to have control of its own borders ? - I mean they are in the EU ?


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It would be interesting to know how Italy was able to confirm a couple of cases (UK returners to Italy already quarantining) so quickly.



I suspect it was because it was Rome. There is an amazing hospital facility in Rome. Lab capacity in Italy, even to this day is spread extremely unequally in Italy.


----------



## kingrollo (21 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It's beyond ridiculous.
> 
> Either
> (1) We have a dangerously fast spreading new variant which will overwhelm the health service in short order, in which case we need to clamp down on it everywhere
> ...



My son works in a shop - and has a 9 hour shift on boxing day - Im a member of the CEV group - I must admit I wish he wasn't going in !


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> As it stands the boxing day sales are still going ahead - would I be captain hindsight to suggest they shouldn't.



I think Boris will be on tv very soon.

He may not be able to persuade anyone in the country based on the internet, the papers, morning tv and phone ins.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> CEV group



What's that?


----------



## kingrollo (21 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What's that?


Clinically Extremely Vulnerable


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> I suspect it was because it was Rome. There is an amazing hospital facility in Rome. Lab capacity in Italy, even to this day is spread extremely unequally in Italy.


Thanks. But does that indicate that Rome was already quietly aware of the variant, do you think?


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Thanks. But does that indicate that Rome was already quietly aware of the variant, do you think?



I reckon it's quite likely, but I don't trust very much the Italian media say. Matters of national security, who knows.

Italy always was doing a lot of low level monitoring of the virus by flight way before we did. All right so a lot of it was probably a waste of time and security theatre, but today there are proper techniques.

The government in Italy and medical establishments are now aware that the patient 1 narrative in Italy is completely untrue and it was spreading months earlier in Italy. If as a country you learn from that the obvious conclusion is constant vigilance. Not that that is that different for other countries, but Italy is deeply traumatised by wave 1.

Looking back in hindsight the 'north of Pisa' stuff suggests the Italian government may not be as transparent and communicative as one would hope it would be in a pandemic.

The PHE figures are public and paid servants of governments can spend time looking over them, unlike none of us who do it in our spare time. A paid advisor can put the announcement and the figures together as soon as it's announced.


----------



## Rezillo (21 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Grant Shapps has claimed on tv the UK is doing 50% of the genomic sequencing on strains in the world, which is quite a claim given a couple of other countries take this very seriously. It may be why some other countries are claiming not to have the 'new' strain.



Yes - I don't know about the 50% figure but see the last section of this:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...om-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear

"But scientists say B.1.1.7 may already be much more widespread. Dutch researchers have found it in a sample from one patient taken in early December, Dutch health minister Hugo de Jonge wrote in a letter to Parliament today. They will try to find out how the patient became infected and if there are related cases. Other countries may well have the variant as well, says epidemiologist William Hanage of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; the United Kingdom may just have picked it up first because that country has the most sophisticated SARS-CoV-2 genomic monitoring in the world. Many countries have little or no sequencing".


----------



## mjr (21 Dec 2020)

rogerzilla said:


> About 5% of houses in the Cotswolds, more like 50% in the nice villages, are second homes for London-dwellers. The A419/A417 were apparently rather busy on Sat night as they took the new virus there.


Yes, probably similar in Poppyland and Chelsea-on-sea.

And the presence of so many London tags in the car park yesterday suggests they ain't isolating on arrival for a few days to see if they develop symptoms.

I'm pondering whether to shop in a few days to let the virulent Londoners stock up and be out of the way, to shop now in case panic buyers ravage stocks, or to try to shop only at farm and village shops again even if that means missing many Christmas treats. At least we bought the bird and chestnuts on Friday before the latest migration and veg should be plentiful out here in the fields.


----------



## cookiemonster (21 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> .....and how come France seems to have control of its own borders ? - I mean they are in the EU ?



And Schengen.


----------



## tom73 (21 Dec 2020)

Government advice on shielding been updated for clinically extremely vulnerable. 
Anyone in tier 4 now basically back to as before and advised to stay home. 
Given the rate things are going anyone not in tier 4 don't panic just be practical and check you are able to change things if you need to. 
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ng-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

Keir Starmer calling for daily Boris press conferences.

Nooooooooo........


----------



## mjr (21 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Keir Starmer calling for daily Boris press conferences.
> 
> Nooooooooo........


He knows that to see Boris is to loathe Boris, increasingly.


----------



## Adam4868 (21 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Keir Starmer calling for daily Boris press conferences.
> 
> Nooooooooo........



View: https://twitter.com/omid9/status/1340981682439073792?s=19


----------



## kingrollo (21 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> He knows that to see Boris is to loathe Boris, increasingly.



Think he knows Boris doesn't want to be working at the un godly hour of 5pm !!!


----------



## Johnno260 (21 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Sweden bulletin.
> 
> A colleague's mother died of the disease at the weekend. She (my colleague) sings in a choir in Gothenburg. 60% of the choir have tested positive. The Sweden case rate is accelerating fast and despite our current predicament is still twice ours.
> 
> We have MPs advocating that legal restrictions are wrong, and that giving people information and allowing them to make their own decisions is the way forward. Get thee to Sweden!



Sorry to hear this.

On the advocating legal restrictions are wrong, the whole British common sense thing is a joke, I know of so many not using any common sense it's a total joke, the same people complain about nanny state while going to see high risk relatives, the amount of friends and relatives I have nothing to do with due to showing their utter contempt for others is very sad, like I said to one ants have a better social/moral compass then they did.


----------



## tom73 (21 Dec 2020)

Ramping up mass testing looks to be setting up yet more mess. 

View: https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1340975390412685312?s=21


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> Ramping up mass testing looks to be setting up yet more mess.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1340975390412685312?s=21




That makes it appear not merely wasteful and useless but positively dangerous to use in schools. 

One wonders what on earth the science advice govt got on that.


----------



## midlife (21 Dec 2020)

Our public health bod has announced that the new strain is spreading in Cumbria having been detected last Thursday. Not sure how long we will be in tier 2 then !


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> Our public health bod has announced that the new strain is spreading in Cumbria having been detected last Thursday. Not sure how long we will be in tier 2 then !



And Wales has just published figures (Guardian from Press Association)



> Data from the Office for National Statistics’ coronavirus infection survey shows the new strain of Covid-19 was present in 28% of samples from Wales in the second week of December, the country’s deputy chief medical officer has said, PA reports.
> 
> Professor Chris Jones told a Welsh government press conference that this figure was “more than double the number in the previous week”. He added: "Public Health Wales colleagues advise us that they feel this new strain could be causing up to 60% of coronavirus infections in Wales.
> This new variant looks very likely to be the significant driver of the huge growth in cases we’ve seen in Wales in recent weeks."


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

https://twitter.com/niko_tinius


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

Looks like we're getting another Boris special today. Let's hope he's able to offer some good news and decisive action.


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

Drakeford said only a small proportion of 'new' strain B.1.1.7 able to be picked up by only two lighthouse labs in Wales, says the proportion likely a sizeable underestimate.


----------



## Tripster (21 Dec 2020)

I just had an email alert from my company listing all the countries banning flights with UK or travel via and the dates ban lasts till. Fairly long list


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> I just had an email alert from my company listing all the countries banning flights with UK or travel via and the dates ban lasts till. Fairly long list



Last one I saw was 27. I'm sure it'll be 50,100 countries before long.

Wonder how long it'll take for a few other countries to stick their hands up and say they have a large outbreak of it too?


----------



## Tripster (21 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Last one I saw was 27. I'm sure it'll be 50,100 countries before long.
> 
> Wonder how long it'll take for a few other countries to stick their hands up and say they have a large outbreak of it too?


16 in Europe acted against the UK flights/ferries


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

It was Brazil I had a curiosity about, so far Chile and Argentina in South America seem to be the ones that have gone.


----------



## kingrollo (21 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Looks like we're getting another Boris special today. Let's hope he's able to offer some good news and decisive action.



"Get Brexit done" more likely.


----------



## Tripster (21 Dec 2020)

Turkey as banned flights from UK Denmark, Netherlands and South Africa my list says.
Ireland and France 48hour ban until further decision made


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> Turkey as banned flights from UK Denmark, Netherlands and South Africa my list says.
> Ireland and France 48hour ban until further decision made



Yeah I know a small number of places have banned travel from South Africa. Denmark said last week about the virus and Sweden also just banned them.


----------



## Tripster (21 Dec 2020)

The good news is I likely wont be able to travel back to Italy in January now so an extra month off for Christmas, every cloud and that


----------



## MrGrumpy (21 Dec 2020)

To think a week or so ago , it was all the vaccine is here !! The cynic in me says this latest onslaught is as much to do with the gov suddenly coming to their senses and realising what a clusterf...... of an idea it was to have open season at Christmas and slammed into reverse. However that’s just adding more rumour really


----------



## kingrollo (21 Dec 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> To think a week or so ago , it was all the vaccine is here !! The cynic in me says this latest onslaught is as much to do with the gov suddenly coming to their senses and realising what a clusterf...... of an idea it was to have open season at Christmas and slammed into reverse. However that’s just adding more rumour really



If it was - its kind of backfired as the world has brought into it and stopped all travel from the UK. !!!!


----------



## tom73 (21 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Looks like we're getting another Boris special today. Let's hope he's able to offer some good news and decisive action.


Not just Boris we are also in for an extra treat Shapps is making a guest appearance.


----------



## MrGrumpy (21 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> If it was - its kind of backfired as the world has brought into it and stopped all travel from the UK. !!!!


Yes I know very far fetched indeed. This could be us until spring now !


----------



## Dayvo (21 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> He did downsize the figure to 45% and then seemed to get fixated with words that begin with the letter v. Very very virulent virus variant, etc.


He’s just a big fool


----------



## Tripster (21 Dec 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Yes I know very far fetched indeed. This could be us until spring now !


Hope so, I love social distancing and lack of interaction with the population. Been one of Social Anxiety it’s about the perfect scenario for me right now  and to top it off It’s a Christmas without in laws.....Win win


----------



## kingrollo (21 Dec 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Yes I know very far fetched indeed. This could be us until spring now !



I wouldn't mind that too much - the flip flop policy hasn't worked - and Boris and the Tories are starting to feel the heat from the fallout. Lock us down and parade yourselves as the heroes of the pandemic come March April.

A bad policy is better than no policy - as someone once said ...or something similar anyway !


----------



## marinyork (21 Dec 2020)

Tripster said:


> Hope so, I love social distancing and lack of interaction with the population. Been one of Social Anxiety it’s about the perfect scenario for me right now  and to top it off It’s a Christmas without in laws.....Win win



Hope not. If travel bans last that long it probably means the variant has taken over and another 5-10 million people in the world have died.

It could also mean adult politicians haven't found a solution which may include vaccinating/testing/other haulliers/various sorts of transport workers including on flights.


----------



## tom73 (21 Dec 2020)

Twice Vallance asked about lockdowns and if tier 4 is coming your way. Twice he's made it pretty clear both are coming and the government need to get a shifty on about it. 
He also made it clear There will be "inevitable" increases in cases over the next few weeks, as people mix more over Christmas.


----------



## Bazzer (21 Dec 2020)

_Public health directors in the West Midlands and Greater Manchester asked people to self-isolate for 10 days if they had travelled from London and areas of the South East, which entered Tier 4 at the weekend, or Wales, where tough new measures came into force on Sunday. 
In Liverpool City Region, where a mass coronavirus testing pilot has been taking place, anyone who had travelled from London or the South East to the area was urged to get a coronavirus test.
Director of public health for the Lancashire authority of Blackburn with Darwen Dominic Harrison told BBC Lancashire anyone who had travelled from a Tier 4 area since last Wednesday should self-isolate for at least five days._

Oh yes, for anyone in the exodus from the South East seen on multiple news reports, they are really going to take notice.


----------



## tom73 (21 Dec 2020)

It’s no longer local advice it’s a government requirement for anyone traveling into tier 4 and inc travel into a good few tier 3 areas. Anyone must now isolate for 10 days. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-55400339


----------



## kingrollo (21 Dec 2020)

National Tier 4 on Jan 4 - 4-1 @betfair

(When the fun stops stop)


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> National Tier 4 on Jan 4 - 4-1 @betfair
> 
> (When the fun stops stop)


You've just put a new meaning to spread betting.


----------



## cookiemonster (22 Dec 2020)




----------



## Toe Clip (22 Dec 2020)

I don’t think Anthony Jay and Jonathan Lynn could have written a better script.


----------



## Unkraut (22 Dec 2020)

Toe Clip said:


> I don’t think Anthony Jay and Jonathan Lynn could have written a better script.


Reminiscent of John Smith's famous _it ain half hot_ quip in the Commons, except what is happening now is a tragedy and not a comedy


----------



## kingrollo (22 Dec 2020)

Nearly 37k new cases and 691 deaths. Has to be full lockdown starting boxing day.


----------



## midlife (22 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Nearly 37k new cases and 691 deaths. Has to be full lockdown starting boxing day.



That's exactly what I was thinking......


----------



## marinyork (22 Dec 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Nearly 37k new cases and 691 deaths. Has to be full lockdown starting boxing day.



Some of the venues in remaining areas in tier 2 such as Norfolk, Devon, Cumbria, Cheshire, Sussex, Surrey and North Yorkshire need closing tomorrow.


----------



## marinyork (22 Dec 2020)

More covid analysis of the new strain, although not much new news in there @midlife

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/22/covid-infections-eden-cumbria-new-strain

Although local director of public health a bit of an oddity. You don't have to move the whole of cumbria up a tier, you could er do Eden, perhaps? 



> Despite his concerns, Cox did not think Cumbria should be moved into a higher tier before Christmas.
> 
> “Our rates are very mixed at the moment. And Copeland has, if not the lowest then still one of the lowest rates in the country,” he said.
> 
> “Most places in Cumbria are comfortable in tier 2. And I guess the real question would be, what value there would be in putting it into tier 3 right now and then then you get the Christmas Day relaxation, and then it feels as if we would be not that far away from another national intervention. just swapping all the rules around so quickly, would make less sense, I think.


----------



## midlife (22 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> More covid analysis of the new strain, although not much new news in there @midlife
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/22/covid-infections-eden-cumbria-new-strain
> 
> Although local director of public health a bit of an oddity. You don't have to move the whole of cumbria up a tier, you could er do Eden, perhaps?



For the most part we ignore Colin Cox, after all he doesn't even live in Cumbria.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (22 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Some of the venues in remaining areas in tier 2 such as Norfolk, Devon, Cumbria, Cheshire, Sussex, Surrey and North Yorkshire need closing tomorrow.



Patchy in Cumbria at the moment - in South Lakeland last 7 days positive tests 207, deaths 6 and patients admitted to hospital 34 - positive cases trending up by 39 on last week over the same period. Currently T2.

Eden appears to have been hit harder.


----------



## midlife (22 Dec 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Patchy in Cumbria at the moment - in South Lakeland last 7 days positive tests 207, deaths 6 and patients admitted to hospital 34 - positive cases trending up by 39 on last week over the same period. Currently T2.
> 
> Eden appears to have been hit harder.



Cumbria is a very disparate large county with a huge variation in population density, wealth distribution and health inequality.....and more 

It really should be broken up into 4 areas, when I arrived here my first employer was Eden Valley PCT..... The very same Eden that is having a surge now. More people with more money doing more things out of the household....


----------



## tom73 (22 Dec 2020)

Get‘s worse by the day for the Mrs 73 , 4 covid deaths , 13 new cases, complex clinically vulnerable unit complex mental health unit both are running at almost 100 % covid. Lord help them if the new strain gets in and it will be like a care home on steroids.


----------



## Hover Fly (22 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> Cumbria is a very disparate large county with a huge variation in population density, wealth distribution and health inequality.....and more
> 
> It really should be broken up into 4 areas, when I arrived here my first employer was Eden Valley PCT..... The very same Eden that is having a surge now. More people with more money doing more things out of the household....


They’re working on it, but that’s for another thread
https://www.southlakeland.gov.uk/your-council/council-business/the-bay-unitary-proposal/


----------



## mjr (23 Dec 2020)

Has there been new work on transmission settings? It feels a bit like we are using an imperfect "lockdown" hammer to tighten the screws. Probably some things need adding while others could be removed.


----------



## marinyork (23 Dec 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Patchy in Cumbria at the moment - in South Lakeland last 7 days positive tests 207, deaths 6 and patients admitted to hospital 34 - positive cases trending up by 39 on last week over the same period. Currently T2.
> 
> Eden appears to have been hit harder.



Unfortunately South Lakeland is higher than many of those of the forum in tier 3. Eden though is quite a lot higher and rising fast, the next review is 30th December. That's looking pretty bad for Eden. It's the same in a large number of tier 2 areas around the country, although some are doing better and some all right.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (23 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Unfortunately South Lakeland is higher than many of those of the forum in tier 3. Eden though is quite a lot higher and rising fast, the next review is 30th December. That's looking pretty bad for Eden. It's the same in a large number of tier 2 areas around the country, although some are doing better and some all right.



Most of the cases in South Lakeland are over in Barrow-in-Furness which is a PITA if we have to go into T3 here on the eastern side of SL.

Better safe than sorry though.


----------



## marinyork (23 Dec 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Most of the cases in South Lakeland are over in Barrow-in-Furness which is a PITA if we have to go into T3 here on the eastern side of SL.
> 
> Better safe than sorry though.



Cases in a lot of areas around here are much lower, its some parts of the rest of the county and the east of this city. Tier 3 is holding things and I can't see us being lower than tier 3 till March or April now with what's going on with the new strain.

A lot of rumours going around the oxford vaccine and that getting emergency licensing and that it does reduce transmission. Good as we need good news, but new strain/spread is so high now that it's looking a very long time around here even with vaccines starting to have an effect in feb/march.


----------



## tom73 (23 Dec 2020)

Many of use have long known the long road to come as winter gets going. As @marinyork says the new strain and case numbers now growing at the rate they are. That long road is now longer and anything less than tier 3 as the norm sadly won’t cut it. Tier 4 is likely to be hanging round in some areas for good while yet. 

This is as course if action is taken when they are told and that the clowns don’t start playing even more of a party in the big top when they get back to “work“. We just have to hope the NHS and it’s now long tried staff keep things going. 

Until then Stay safe everyone , scrub up, mask up, distance, avoid crowds indoors, reduce your bubble, stay home when you can and be kind to each other. Look after yourselves remember it’s ok not be ok and to say so. Find time just for you what ever it is how ever long or short we all need a reboot at times.


----------



## marinyork (23 Dec 2020)

Horby et al. have just been on the select committee. He pointed out SPI-M and NERVTAG confidence has changed twice in quick succession and he is now almost certain B117 spreads quicker.


----------



## Rezillo (23 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Horby et al. have just been on the select committee. He pointed out SPI-M and NERVTAG confidence has changed twice in quick succession and he is now almost certain B117 spreads quicker.



As you indicated a little while back, East Anglia is taking off. My own district of Mid Suffolk (mainly rural, largest town Stowmarket) almost trebled its cases per 100,000 in one week. Unlike in earlier months, I'm not aware of any meat packer plant outbreaks to account for this.

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/health/suffolk-coronavirus-infection-rates-latest-6863378

And then there's this:

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/health/ipswich-hospital-coronavirus-crisis-revealed-6864228


----------



## rockyroller (23 Dec 2020)

just read 54,000 Americans died since Thanksgiving, 3,400 yesterday alone


----------



## marinyork (23 Dec 2020)

Rezillo said:


> As you indicated a little while back, East Anglia is taking off. My own district of Mid Suffolk (mainly rural, largest town Stowmarket) almost trebled its cases per 100,000 in one week. Unlike in earlier months, I'm not aware of any meat packer plant outbreaks to account for this.
> 
> https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/health/suffolk-coronavirus-infection-rates-latest-6863378
> 
> ...



Mid-suffolk is fairly typical for tier 2 areas. For anyone that doesn't look at the dashboard on a regular basis, that only goes up to the 17th December (each bar is 1 day) not even up to Boris's press conference at the weekend. 







I tend not to look at hospital trust data, but here's East of England:


----------



## Rezillo (23 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Mid-suffolk is fairly typical for tier 2 areas. For anyone that doesn't look at the dashboard on a regular basis, that only goes up to the 17th December (each bar is 1 day) not even up to Boris's press conference at the weekend.
> 
> View attachment 564781
> 
> ...



Could really do with a Thanks emoticon rather than liking this but thanks.


----------



## marinyork (23 Dec 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Could really do with a Thanks emoticon rather than liking this but thanks.



The ministers have newer info, 3pm press conference. A lot of what I wrote previously was based on 14th December data which was bad enough.

One of the most interesting new datasets is the Isle of Wight one, which has got little attention. The government put a firebreak of 3 x tier 4 areas and a sea in between to protect it in its tier 1. The Isle of Wight has immediately bounced back up to pre-national restriction levels taking a few steps at a time.

The levels are not super scary there yet, but not for very long with tier 1 allowing up to six interhousehold mixing to meet indoors.


----------



## tom73 (23 Dec 2020)

Prof Ferguson of sage told select committee he believes curve to flatten with current measures. But went on to make the critical point 
However, he said the "critical question" was what happens in January, "and the extent we want to make public health measures more uniform across the country if the new variant is everywhere".
Which is the big problem we've been here before and every time the government bottles it as soon as small improves start.


----------



## marinyork (23 Dec 2020)

Boxing Day: 00:01
Herefordshire and Cornwall go to tier 2.
Isle of Wight and large bits of south west go to tier 3.
Pretty much the entire South East/East/East Anglia in tier 4.


----------



## tom73 (23 Dec 2020)

Great confirmed yet another strain confirmed here via SA sounds like it's worse than our current one. 
Legal formal enforced quarantine to be used on SA cases until we know more. 2 cases found via SA travel anyone who's been to SA in last two weeks but isolate and any close contact to do the same. 
God Hancock really is laying on the charm and I know as everyone will do right thing lines. As for the thank you NHS and social care workers 
You can stuff it mate to sum up his press conference .... pass the bucket.


----------



## marinyork (23 Dec 2020)

Jenny Harries's first slide.


----------



## DCLane (23 Dec 2020)

If we extrapolate the dotted blue line on her slide I can see what's coming in January for everywhere else


----------



## Bollo (23 Dec 2020)

Hampshire goes into Tier 4. I’m not entirely surprised. Rates are still relatively low down my ends but have nearly doubled over the past week. Interesting that the New Forest has been excluded though.


----------



## marinyork (23 Dec 2020)

The journalists sounds quite pissed with their questions.


----------



## tom73 (23 Dec 2020)

DCLane said:


> If we extrapolate the dotted blue line on her slide I can see what's coming in January for everywhere else



Bit like groundhog day for us who never got much past tier 3 or the one before


----------



## shep (23 Dec 2020)

tom73 said:


> Bit like groundhog day for us who never got much past tier 3 or the one before


Same here.


----------



## tom73 (23 Dec 2020)

Note to Hancock throwing in study out today in Lancet to support the old tiers to beef up your relay. At least 1 sound like you've read it and two expand your reference to inc referencers to it. If not you look even a bigger knob.


----------



## BoldonLad (23 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The prime places I get exposed to others indoors are the supermarkets. I suspect this may the case for many others who don't have young children, who will have daily playground and school gates exposure. So, I've been running around buying stuff for a festival I dread and, in doing so, have increased the chances of becoming infected and spreading infection. All for nothing, bar the wasted money and the food I cannot eat. I wonder how many people have been similarly increasing their infection risk all for nothing.


Christmas is not compulsory, just don’t do it.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Dec 2020)

Hancock:

_“But we also know that Tier 3 is not enough to control the new variant. This is not our hypothesis, it is a fact and we have seen it on the ground_.

So why the fark are you leaving half the country in tier 2/3, knowing that the virus will continue to spread as a result, you farking idiot? 700 people a day are dying already! How many more die before you follow your own logic??

This is doing my nut. How can he possibly justify this?


----------



## marinyork (23 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This is doing my nut. How can he possibly justify this?



It makes more sense than it did. Wiltshire and Rutland are now the only nearby/actual bordering tier 4/tier 2 areas. The anomalous Rutland seems to be as numbers are falling for two weeks there (although it cycles in rutland).

There are some tier 2 areas bordering tier 3 that should be in 3 though.

The government seem very reluctant to touch all/large areas of cumbria, devon, worcestershire and north yorkshire and remaining enclaves of historic lancashire/cheshire.

Eden's the real outlier though. I think keeping that in tier 2 as Cox wants is a very stupid idea.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (23 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> It makes more sense than it did. Wiltshire and Rutland are now the only nearby/actual bordering tier 4/tier 2 areas. The anomalous Rutland seems to be as numbers are falling for two weeks there (although it cycles in rutland).
> 
> There are some tier 2 areas bordering tier 3 that should be in 3 though.
> 
> ...



How does having any area in tier 3 make sense when Hancock says the govt knows itv will enable the virus to spread?


----------



## marinyork (23 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> How does having any area in tier 3 make sense when Hancock says the govt knows itv will enable the virus to spread?



Tier 3 does seem to be holding EU1 steady in many areas. That won't last as B117 takes over.

Tier 2 is fairly useless though, unless we get a time machine and go back to september or most rural areas of all with a bit of luck (which you're not going to have over Christmas).

7 million out of 66 million in tier 2. That's down from something like 17 million in tiers 1 and 2. For me that's a big improvement and especially on the bordering tier 4 areas which was just plain silly. They'll pick off bits of North Yorkshire/Devon/Cumbria on the next round, it's just keeping the CRG group of Tory MPs in their playpen.

I'd put everywhere in tier 3 or 4 on Boxing Day. The figures presented today are a bit more optimistic in the sense that they think B117 is approximately in the areas of tier 4 (although I'm a little puzzled about southern bits of Lincolnshire not being included).

I think politically they are trying to get through till early Jan with feelgood factor from the oxford vaccine and crossing their fingers some tiny data by mid January can suggest the vaccine may be having a tiny effect and extrapolate from that that Easter life will be back to normal because Boris says so.

It's all political, you know that rou.

My map would look something like:-


----------



## Bazzer (23 Dec 2020)

Moved now from T2 to T3, but it doesn't surprise me. Where I live is a local hotspot, but the secondary school 2 1/2 miles away seems to have had numerous outbreaks and anecdotally outbreaks far higher than schools even just 4 miles away. I'd be interested to know if the school is driving the infections in the community, or is merely displaying the consequence of others' disregard of the guidance/rules.


----------



## BoldonLad (23 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Tier 3 does seem to be holding *EU1* steady in many areas. That won't last as *B117 *takes over.
> ...........



I assume EU1 and B117 are variants / mutations of the virus?

We are being told there are approximately 30,000+ NEW infections per day.

How does anyone know what the mix of strains is in what is approximately 250,000 infections per week?

I find it had to believe that every infection is being sampled, and tested?

I even find it hard to believe accuracy of the 30,000+ NEW infections per day, what about those who a re infected with no symptoms, what about those who are infected but have mild symptoms and do not seek (or get) medical assistance?

In short, although, at 73, I am "being sensible" with respect to following the guidance, I am very sceptical about the accuracy of what we are and are not being told, not to mention the media and internet clutter.


----------



## vickster (23 Dec 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> I assume EU1 and B117 are variants / mutations of the virus?
> 
> We are being told there are approximately 30,000+ NEW infections per day.
> 
> ...


150000 samples sequenced thus far in U.K. vs 4000 in France 
Covid: New variant found ‘due to hard work of UK scientists’ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55413666


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## pawl (23 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> It makes more sense than it did. Wiltshire and Rutland are now the only nearby/actual bordering tier 4/tier 2 areas. The anomalous Rutland seems to be as numbers are falling for two weeks there (although it cycles in rutland).
> 
> There are some tier 2 areas bordering tier 3 that should be in 3 though.
> 
> ...




See your point I am surprised that Leicestershire hasn’t gone into tier 4 A person I know lives on the border of Northamptonshire and regularly crosses into tier three to visit a pub Northamptonshire now in tier three When we have various tiers there will always be individuals breaking the rules to the detriment of othe


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## deptfordmarmoset (23 Dec 2020)

vickster said:


> 150000 samples sequenced thus far in U.K. vs 4000 in France
> Covid: New variant found ‘due to hard work of UK scientists’ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55413666


As a little side note to that article. The countries with good genomic processing have found variants: there's Kent covid, there's Cape covid and the Danes came up with fur coat covid. Each announcement has been met with travel bans for the countries doing the announcing. There seems to be an active ''benefit'' in not looking for variants, and in keeping quiet if they're found.


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## vickster (23 Dec 2020)

It would be tragically ironic if Kent Covid had come across the channel


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## Bollo (23 Dec 2020)

vickster said:


> 150000 samples sequenced thus far in U.K. vs 4000 in France
> Covid: New variant found ‘due to hard work of UK scientists’ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55413666


This table is interesting and makes the same point. Although our total number of cases is shameful, it appears we've sequenced more samples than the rest of the world combined.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...s-cases-ranks-43rd-sequencing-check-variants/


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## Rusty Nails (23 Dec 2020)

Bollo said:


> This table is interesting and makes the same point. Although our total number of cases is shameful, it appears we've sequenced more samples than the rest of the world combined.
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...s-cases-ranks-43rd-sequencing-check-variants/



How do we read that article without subscribing?


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## Bollo (23 Dec 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> How do we read that article without subscribing?


You used to be able to view a limited number or articles a month without a subscription. Maybe they've changed it.

Edit: Added a screengrab.


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## deptfordmarmoset (23 Dec 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> How do we read that article without subscribing?


I got two options: subscribe or a limited number of articles, as @Bollo described


----------



## Rusty Nails (23 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I got two options: subscribe or a limited number of articles, as @Bollo described



I got subscribe or £1 for a month.

Too tight to pay.


----------



## Johnno260 (23 Dec 2020)

My wife’s ward the staff are getting knocked down like bowling pins now.

No staff deaths but people have positive results and are isolating.

My wife can’t have the vaccine due to anaphylaxis and having to carry adrenaline.

Just stay safe people, like I said 2nd wave is gearing up to be a nasty one, looking at the numbers.


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## midlife (23 Dec 2020)

Unusual for Cumbria to be mentioned by name by the bbc as we plod along somewhere at the top of the country next to Scotland 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-55427802

Our hospital is usually pretty coy about how many Covid patients we have but last info email said 70 ish which probably puts us in April territory. When the first wave ended we normally had less than 20 

Not sure why we are not going into tier 3 at least ?


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## deptfordmarmoset (23 Dec 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> I got subscribe or £1 for a month.
> 
> Too tight to pay.


That's odd. 2 options on the phone, 3 on the laptop.


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## Rusty Nails (23 Dec 2020)

Never use the laptop except for my financial stuff. It's in hiding upstairs.

Thanks anyway.


----------



## Rezillo (24 Dec 2020)

Tim Martin sinks to a new low, which I didn't believe was possible:

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/business/wetherspoons-joseph-conrad-defends-coronavirus-posters-6869036


----------



## Johnno260 (24 Dec 2020)

Rezillo said:


> Tim Martin sinks to a new low, which I didn't believe was possible:
> 
> https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/business/wetherspoons-joseph-conrad-defends-coronavirus-posters-6869036


 Stuff like that is what annoys me, it feeds the conspiracy theory nuts, then I get mad when more crack pot relatives hop on board the tin foil train.

the amount of times I have heard this guy on Facebook said...


----------



## cookiemonster (26 Dec 2020)

View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UIVY_LpEk4&t=1049s


How it should've been dealt with if Gov had listened.


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## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

cookiemonster said:


> How it should've been dealt with if Gov had listened.



Devi Sridhar appears on uk tv on a regular basis and appears in papers (usually The Guardian on a regular basis).

Devi's right that most of the deaths could have been prevented (I'm not sure I'd go as high as 90% unless you have an element of luck like new zealand had among excellent planning), but the issue the UK faces at the moment is that about a third of England is rampantly infected with the B117 strain. Without better planning now and explaining to people I worry that it'll add 2/3/4 months of tier 3/4 restrictions on when things finally come in. The daily dashboard figures are catastrophic for about a third of the country. Rural areas that would have emerged relatively unscathed are going to get pummeled the next 3 weeks.

The strain picked up in south africa there's less info on, but what I have seen of that a lot more caution should be shown, crazy spikes bang in the middle of summer as bad as the first peak. Yeah, some of it might be down to well written about behaviours, but it can't all be that.


----------



## pawl (26 Dec 2020)

1500 lorry drivers tested 35 positives.Seems to me Macron used the situation as a punishment to Britain If that’s the case the only people he was punishing are EU lorry drivers who are EU citizens


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## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

pawl said:


> 1500 lorry drivers tested 35 positives.Seems to me Macron used the situation as a punishment to Britain If that’s the case the only people he was punishing are EU lorry drivers who are EU citizens



Macron's also punishing the french people, because the B117 strain may be picked up too late in France to stop it getting wildly out of control, leading to thousands of extra deaths over months. Focussing on travel can always be improved but is a distraction. The deliberate level of denialism in France is shocking.

He needs to align his macho gob with his actions, if it's important to him then he can vaccinate all French haulliers and ask other countries to do their nationals. Rush huge numbers of samples to genomic labs to work out where it is.


----------



## Unkraut (26 Dec 2020)

One case of the new extra infectious strain has been picked up in Baden-Württemberg, a women who recently flew in from the UK. She has been quarantined and hopefully will not be cause of it spreading, although few seen to doubt eventually it is like to spread across more of Europe.


----------



## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

plot showing how mad the current tier 2 to 4 system is, I say current, that one is actually old data and even that runs to a few days ago of course. The government put the latest data upto 21st december up in the last hour and there are small surges in North Yorkshire, Devon, Cumbria and other tier 2 areas. There are only five or six relatively small areas (not on a county basis) that should be in tier 2. 

One of the five indicators, the percentages of those over 60s is also not so great in many areas.


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## MrGrumpy (26 Dec 2020)

No wonder our FM wanted to restrict moment across the border ! Still don’t understand the current levels south of the border ?? Surely tier 4 for everywhere would best to stem the infections?


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## Rusty Nails (26 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Macron's also punishing the french people, because the B117 strain may be picked up too late in France to stop it getting wildly out of control, leading to thousands of extra deaths over months. Focussing on travel can always be improved but is a distraction. The deliberate level of denialism in France is shocking.
> 
> He needs to align his macho gob with his actions, if it's important to him then he can vaccinate all French haulliers and ask other countries to do their nationals. Rush huge numbers of samples to genomic labs to work out where it is.



If Macron was British he'd be getting slaughtered regularly on CC, but he's their problem to deal with not ours.


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## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> If Macron was British he'd be getting slaughtered regularly on CC, but he's their problem to deal with not ours.



Say B117 hadn't got wildly out of hand in the UK, say it was at much lower levels or just more or less confined to Kent. We don't need it belting around France while politicians play a game of singing lalala in their ears as it'll come back here. Substitute any two countries in Europe with france and the UK. Some of France's neighbours aren't going to do too well out of that.

Project storm chaser, if that's successful in the coming months might just about undo the worst effects of B117, in the super rich developed world anyway.


----------



## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> No wonder our FM wanted to restrict moment across the border ! Still don’t understand the current levels south of the border ?? Surely tier 4 for everywhere would best to stem the infections?



The levels that the virus is in Scotland, Scottish tier 4 looks to be able to hold the virus. The proviso of that being that B117 doesn't escape enclaves in Glasgow and a few other places that the FM and medical advisors think it is.


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## Johnno260 (26 Dec 2020)

Tier 4 or not, issue is many don’t give a rats and mix when they shouldn’t then complain the government don’t have it under control.


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## Ming the Merciless (26 Dec 2020)

Saw a few drivers in the lanes today, plus motorway busy. Who knew there’d be so much essential tier 4 travel today?


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## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> Tier 4 or not, issue is many don’t give a rats and mix when they shouldn’t then complain the government don’t have it under control.



Tier 4 is like the national restrictions.

People do what they want, but it scares more people into limiting contact. Just enough to bring cases down where the new B117 variant wasn't.

It comes at a massive wellbeing cost though .


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## Ming the Merciless (26 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> View attachment 565348
> 
> 
> plot showing how mad the current tier 2 to 4 system is, I say current, that one is actually old data and even that runs to a few days ago of course. The government put the latest data upto 21st december up in the last hour and there are small surges in North Yorkshire, Devon, Cumbria and other tier 2 areas. There are only five or six relatively small areas (not on a county basis) that should be in tier 2.
> ...



Sorry but tier 4 looks like a Christmas tree 🎄 and tiers 2 and 3 the decorations to add.


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## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Sorry but tier 4 looks like a Christmas tree 🎄 and tiers 2 and 3 the decorations to add.



Yeah, Boris didn't get around to doing it till after Christmas and left a lot for the New Year!


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## Ming the Merciless (26 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> Yeah, Boris didn't get around to doing it till after Christmas and left a lot for the New Year!



The 12 tiers of Christmas


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## roubaixtuesday (26 Dec 2020)

pawl said:


> Seems to me Macron used the situation as a punishment to Britain



For goodness sake grow up. The endless attempts to portray our country as a victim of others are just tedious.


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## deptfordmarmoset (26 Dec 2020)

Ming the Merciless said:


> The 12 tiers of Christmas


Carry on like that and Yule be sorry.


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## roubaixtuesday (26 Dec 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> No wonder our FM wanted to restrict moment across the border ! Still don’t understand the current levels south of the border ?? Surely tier 4 for everywhere would best to stem the infections?



Govt policy is to fill the hospitals and morturaries in preference to upsetting the ideologues installed on their own back benches to support Johnson and Brexit.

They will only act when sufficient are dying to be able to oppose these fools.


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## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Govt policy is to fill the hospitals and morturaries in preference to upsetting the ideologues installed on their own back benches to support Johnson and Brexit.
> 
> They will only act when sufficient are dying to be able to oppose these fools.



Herefordshire, formerly tier 1, now tier 2, has already caught up with non-B117 England. Figures up to 21st December.


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## PaulSB (26 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> One case of the new extra infectious strain has been picked up in Baden-Württemberg, a women who recently flew in from the UK. She has been quarantined and hopefully will not be cause of it spreading, although few seen to doubt eventually it is like to spread across more of Europe.


In my view a spread across Europe is inevitable. I know of a young man who lives in Europe who is visiting family in the UK. Isolation on arrival? No. Observing social distancing? No. Observing family bubble? No. Observing Christmas household restrictions? No. On the beer with some friends? Yes.

If he has the virus, he'll carry it home.....


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## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

PaulSB said:


> In my view a spread across Europe is inevitable. I know of a young man who lives in Europe who has been visiting family in the UK. Isolation on arrival? No. Observing social distancing? No. Observing family bubble? No. Observing Christmas household restrictions? No. On the beer with some friends? Yes.
> 
> If he has the virus, he'll carry it home.....



It's already likely widely circulating, maybe if lucky not as widely as in Wales or Southern England, or if very lucky not even as widely as the rest of the UK.

German medics have said as much.

It may even be justified rediverting vaccines to B117 areas in other countries.


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## Johnno260 (26 Dec 2020)

I’m just fed up with nay sayers blaming everyone else while they do what they please.
It makes sacrifices others have made a moot point.

least from a personal point of view I know which friends and family can be relied upon in a crisis


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## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

Yeah but what can you do


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## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> least from a personal point of view I know which friends and family can be relied upon in a crisis



No one?


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## Johnno260 (26 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> No one?


No my brother has been sensible, with my family it's the older generations being difficult.


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## oldwheels (26 Dec 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> No wonder our FM wanted to restrict moment across the border ! Still don’t understand the current levels south of the border ?? Surely tier 4 for everywhere would best to stem the infections?


We have a problem in that all mainland Scotland including Skye is level 4 but as an offshore island we are level 3. People are coming in from level 4 to our island for New Year apparently and some who are already here are not going home as they are supposed to. In parts of the island there is real anger at holiday home lets who are not closing as they should. We cannot go off for shopping as we would be going from 3 to 4 and back again but tourists seem to think the rules do not apply to them. Those who give accommodation are just as bad and civil war is brewing.


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## marinyork (26 Dec 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> No my brother has been sensible, with my family it's the older generations being difficult.



I'm being silly. It is frustrating. I don't have any friends or family that have stuck to the rules. And quite a few neighbours! 

They were cut down versions of christmas in most cases though. Except 2 doors up.


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## Johnno260 (26 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> I'm being silly. It is frustrating. I don't have any friends or family that have stuck to the rules. And quite a few neighbours!
> 
> They were cut down versions of christmas in most cases though. Except 2 doors up.



haha sorry 2 days with kids, so my wit has evaporated haha love them but it’s tiring.

neighbours are being great actually, and the very old and with health issues are being contacted via WhatsApp to make sure things are ok.

I have many anti vaxers and anti mask in my family, I said sorry you just come across as entitied brats who don’t like being told what to do, it’s a mask it’s not like it’s something hard or difficult.

I think some people just like complaining.

One family member was slamming the governments response, so I retorted oh so your birthday party you had with how many people? How does that help the situation, response was but it was my birthday so I said wow my 5yr and 7yr are more mature than you, they understood and accepted they couldn’t have a party.


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## MrGrumpy (26 Dec 2020)

oldwheels said:


> We have a problem in that all mainland Scotland including Skye is level 4 but as an offshore island we are level 3. People are coming in from level 4 to our island for New Year apparently and some who are already here are not going home as they are supposed to. In parts of the island there is real anger at holiday home lets who are not closing as they should. We cannot go off for shopping as we would be going from 3 to 4 and back again but tourists seem to think the rules do not apply to them. Those who give accommodation are just as bad and civil war is brewing.


Yep I know there are folk who have come up from down south ! Also there is holiday let in my own town advertising “key workers” for use as a stay over. Not buying that!! Hey ho though not my problem. It seeing many folks mixing around my street, it’s normally heaving this time of year. So folk have taken heed !


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## oldwheels (26 Dec 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Yep I know there are folk who have come up from down south ! Also there is holiday let in my own town advertising “key workers” for use as a stay over. Not buying that!! Hey ho though not my problem. It seeing many folks mixing around my street, it’s normally heaving this time of year. So folk have taken heed !


The south of the island has a small population and any strangers are easily identified and key workers are also easily picked out. In the north end where the bulk of the population lives it is not so easy but cars owned by strangers are seen and indeed I can see one parked from my front windows who will probably be here until after New Year.


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## mjr (27 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> One case of the new extra infectious strain has been picked up in Baden-Württemberg, a women who recently flew in from the UK. She has been quarantined and hopefully will not be cause of it spreading, although few seen to doubt eventually it is like to spread across more of Europe.


Are they testing all positives for the new strain or just those with UK links?


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## shep (27 Dec 2020)

Something that made me wonder, if 'non-essential ' shops are open but you're not supposed to make non essential journeys why do they open those shops?


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## MrGrumpy (27 Dec 2020)

Again I thought all non essential shops were to close ? That might be up here of course ! Of course as a side note some of the non essential shops started selling PPE and food to make them essential shops !! I’ve got sympathy for the small independent shops, who lose out big time.


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## marinyork (27 Dec 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Again I thought all non essential shops were to close ? That might be up here of course ! Of course as a side note some of the non essential shops started selling PPE and food to make them essential shops !! I’ve got sympathy for the small independent shops, who lose out big time.



Non-essential shops are open in tiers 2 and 3.

Tier 2 which includes Devon, North Yorkshire, west England and increasingly incredulously Cumbria has hospitality venues properly open with some restrictions such as supposed non-household meeting not allowed indoors but is allowed outdoors e.g. 6 sat on a table close together in a beer garden or semi open tent.

Tier 3 base level hairdressers and gyms are open.


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## MrGrumpy (27 Dec 2020)

Hence, we the mainland up here is in Tier 4 which might be overkill by the gnashing of teeth by some ! However I feel some what safer than what is going on down south !! Only a matter of time really before everyone is max lockdown.


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## marinyork (27 Dec 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Hence, we the mainland up here is in Tier 4 which might be overkill by the gnashing of teeth by some ! However I feel some what safer than what is going on down south !! Only a matter of time really before everyone is max lockdown.



Tier 3 holds some things.

I think B117 is making two pincer movements up east and west flanks towards quite a lot of forum members' areas. B117 is already here but additions mixing with whatever is already here will skyrocket.


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## Unkraut (27 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Are they testing all positives for the new strain or just those with UK links?


I took a quick look but all the govt info said was everyone entering the country from GB must be tested. I would assume in the current circumstances they would test for the new variant , although the woman concerned who tested positive has only gone into the usual quarantine.

Currently there is a ban on entry from the UK, but from 1 Jan 2021 those with residency rights will be allowed to travel having obtained prior agreement.

My better half tells me a plane load from England who landed in Hannover were kept together in an unheated room for several hours pending testing. Someone got it badly wrong, I hope this of itself didn't allow the virus to spread amongst the passengers. I believe they might sue because of this - as they should.


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## Joey Shabadoo (27 Dec 2020)

Tier 4 lockdown my backside! Had to take an asthma inhaler through to East Kilbride from Stirling and the roads were pretty much normal Sunday traffic - especially on the motorways!


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## MrGrumpy (27 Dec 2020)

Police pulling drivers going over the Queensferry crossing ! Last night .


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## marinyork (27 Dec 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Tier 4 lockdown my backside! Had to take an asthma inhaler through to East Kilbride from Stirling and the roads were pretty much normal Sunday traffic - especially on the motorways!



Yes, families packing in and out of houses everywhere, waving goodbye and jumping into 2/3/4 cars everywhere. You are seeing the other end the motorway bit.


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## mjr (27 Dec 2020)

MrGrumpy said:


> Police pulling drivers going over the Queensferry crossing ! Last night .


Restrictions or storms?

Quiter than last Sunday here today but of course it seems mainly sane people staying at home while all the daffodils are still driving around.


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## MrGrumpy (27 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Restrictions or storms?
> 
> Quiter than last Sunday here today but of course it seems mainly sane people staying at home while all the daffodils are still driving around.


Restrictions, asking people where they are going !


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## SpokeyDokey (28 Dec 2020)

Result of three phone calls over the last two days - all T4 (London):

1 x S-I-L and B-I-L - both daughters/partners and 5 children visiting and staying for several days. Two NHS workers involved in this.

1 X S-I-L, B-I-L and their live at home son - son off to Kent to visit long-term girlfriend and her daughter, B-I-L taking not living at home daughter to work every day in car (she is a cleaner for old people's homes), S-I-L off to see second not living at home daughter for the sake of it.

Stepson's son - aged 18, and girlfriend, shuttling back and forth between each other's houses.

***

Frustrating and beyond belief.


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## matticus (28 Dec 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Result of three phone calls over the last two days - all T4 (London):
> 
> 1 x S-I-L and B-I-L - both daughters/partners and 5 children visiting and staying for several days. Two NHS workers involved in this.
> 
> ...


Don't worry - as long as we don't ride our bikes more than an hour, we should all be OK


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## midlife (28 Dec 2020)

Lots out and about shopping here, 450-500 positive per 100,000 around us so I guess it will change Wednesday? 

https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/...normality-cumbrian-shoppers-head-high-street/


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## deptfordmarmoset (28 Dec 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Result of three phone calls over the last two days - all T4 (London):
> 
> 1 x S-I-L and B-I-L - both daughters/partners and 5 children visiting and staying for several days. Two NHS workers involved in this.
> 
> ...


Yes, and I've just lost the possibility of having any faith in my support bubble. So, left it in the cold....


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Dec 2020)

Brits in Verbier for ski holidays are told to isolate . What do the Brits do, do a runner in the middle of the night. They are on a different planet.


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## marinyork (28 Dec 2020)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Brits in Verbier for ski holidays are told to isolate . What do the Brits do, do a runner in the middle of the night. They are on a different planet.



BBC reported that some rang hotels once over the border and safe into France to demand money back.


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## deptfordmarmoset (28 Dec 2020)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Brits in Verbier for ski holidays are told to isolate . What do the Brits do, do a runner in the middle of the night. They are on a different planet.


You'd be forgiven for thinking this was a thread about Brexiteers....


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## MrGrumpy (28 Dec 2020)

I doubt anyone has any sympathy for them? I certainly don’t. A proper travel ban should have been in place and when if/they come back make sure the quarantine. Big fine if they don’t . Selfish idiotic hooray Henry’s.


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## marinyork (28 Dec 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...terms-reveals-britons-hopes-and-fears-in-2020

A piece about search terms for covid over 2020.


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## fossyant (28 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> BBC reported that some rang hotels once over the border and safe into France to demand money back.



Self obsessed nobbers


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## marinyork (28 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> Lots out and about shopping here, 450-500 positive per 100,000 around us so I guess it will change Wednesday?
> 
> https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/...normality-cumbrian-shoppers-head-high-street/



It's only really Cornwall, Copeland and Harrogate that are doing all right in tier 2. Some pretty rural and affluent areas like Hambleton, Herefordshire and Wiltshire seeing rapid rises that could get out if control if they stay in tier 2. 

I had to go out to get food for the first time in a good while and shops bonkers today. Busiest I've seen it since before covid. 

It's easy for Boris to quote restrictions elsewhere where they have hinted staying for 2 or 3 months and can tie it up with oxford vaccine authorisation to give some good news.


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## fossyant (28 Dec 2020)

I only popped out today for a threadded bar and a loads of nuts for a 'bearing press' and some paint for the Ribble refurb. Wasn't too bad TBH but I wasn't in long. I'd forgot my discount code in Halfords and apologised to the lady on the till as I'd need to lg into my works 'app'. She said 'absolutely fine, don't rush - it's nice having polite customers' - she'd had a guy in without a mask and he went nuts when she asked him to step back. Some idiots out there.


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## rockyroller (28 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> it's nice having polite customers


+1, I have a 2nd job, part time (retail home improvement) & while everyone shud get equal service, the cranky rude ones don't elicit any special consideration. while, for others, I'll definitely help a lot more


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## mjr (28 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> I had to go out to get food for the first time in a good while and shops bonkers today. Busiest I've seen it since before covid.


Saw this coming. It's usually bonkers for a few days after Xmas as people fail to cope with shops shut for one day and this year will be worse due to earlier panic buying shortages. We're currently wondering how many more days we can spin out leftovers for, and whether we need a full shop this year or if village stores will suffice to spin it out until most of the morons have to be back at work.


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## potsy (28 Dec 2020)

Went supermarket shopping this morning, never seen it so quiet, I was expecting chaos and crowds!


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## midlife (28 Dec 2020)

Over 41,000 cases today not including Scotland or NI. Inching nearer to lockdown v3?


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## mjr (28 Dec 2020)

midlife said:


> Over 41,000 cases today not including Scotland or NI. Inching nearer to lockdown v3?


Boris won't risk a vote which will mean a debate where the frothing loons among his MPs can soil their copybooks again. We will just go into Tier 11 which looks suspiciously like a lockdown. A Tier In Name Only...


----------



## nickyboy (28 Dec 2020)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Brits in Verbier for ski holidays are told to isolate . What do the Brits do, do a runner in the middle of the night. They are on a different planet.


I think there is a need for some perspective here. You're on holiday with the family and Switzerland suddenly announce isolation protocol. If you sit there, the family are stuck in the hotel room for 10 days straight. Alternative is you leg it and go home.

Of course there will be folk who say "were I in these circumstances I'd force my family to isolate for those ten days". Get real, I'd expect almost everyone who could get out would get out. I certainly would.


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## vickster (28 Dec 2020)

COVID is also rife in Switzerland. My uncle who lives in Verbier has been in an induced coma for 4 weeks  (my aunt had it before him but has recovered)


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I think there is a need for some perspective here. You're on holiday with the family and Switzerland suddenly announce isolation protocol. If you sit there, the family are stuck in the hotel room for 10 days straight. Alternative is you leg it and go home.
> 
> Of course there will be folk who say "were I in these circumstances I'd force my family to isolate for those ten days". Get real, I'd expect almost everyone who could get out would get out. I certainly would.



Sorry, but people travelling for holidays now know the risks of being quarantined. 

If they don't fancy a quarantine, they should stay the fark home.


----------



## mjr (28 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Of course there will be folk who say "were I in these circumstances I'd force my family to isolate for those ten days". Get real, I'd expect almost everyone who could get out would get out. I certainly would.


That sounds suspiciously like the "Get real" that the Association of Bad Drivers use to defend going 10 over the speed limit, claiming everyone does it. They don't.

I would quarantine as required. If you cannot adopt a plan that will cope with such disruption, now is not the time to travel.


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> I think there is a need for some perspective here. You're on holiday with the family and Switzerland suddenly announce isolation protocol. If you sit there, the family are stuck in the hotel room for 10 days straight. Alternative is you leg it and go home.
> 
> Of course there will be folk who say "were I in these circumstances I'd force my family to isolate for those ten days". Get real, I'd expect almost everyone who could get out would get out. I certainly would.



Going on a skiing holiday during a pandemic, including driving across France. There is the perspective of a different reality.


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## nickyboy (28 Dec 2020)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Sorry, but people travelling for holidays now know the risks of being quarantined.
> 
> If they don't fancy a quarantine, they should stay the fark home.





mjr said:


> That sounds suspiciously like the "Get real" that the Association of Bad Drivers use to defend going 10 over the speed limit, claiming everyone does it. They don't.
> 
> I would quarantine as required. If you cannot adopt a plan that will cope with such disruption, now is not the time to travel.





Ming the Merciless said:


> Going on a skiing holiday during a pandemic, including driving across France. There is the perspective of a different reality.


Dead easy to say what you hypothetically would have done. That butters no parsnips


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## Rocky (28 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Dead easy to say what you hypothetically would have done. That butters no parsnips


I do know the Swiss are absolutely incandescent about it. My friend Gaby lives near to Verbier and there’s a huge anti-Brit feeling. Whatever the rights and wrongs, it’s left a bitter taste.


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Dead easy to say what you hypothetically would have done. That butters no parsnips



I wouldn't have gone for a skiing holiday in a farking pandemic. 

In fact, come to think of it, I will not be going on a skiing holiday. Because there's a farking pandemic. 

What exactly is hypothetical here?


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## vickster (28 Dec 2020)

It’s pretty bizarre that Switzerland decided to keep the slopes open in the midst of a pandemic in the first place. 
I guess they like the huge sums of money that tourism brings to the resorts too much so they can’t gripe too much about the Brits other than they didn’t quarantine in resort still spending money?
Can’t have it all ways


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## Rocky (28 Dec 2020)

vickster said:


> It’s pretty bizarre that Switzerland decided to keep the slopes open in the midst of a pandemic in the first place.
> I guess they like the huge sums of money that tourism brings to the resorts too much so they can’t gripe too much about the Brits other than they didn’t quarantine in resort still spending money?
> Can’t have it all ways


I think the Swiss had thought that Swiss people would like to ski over the Xmas holidays (my friend Gaby is a great skier for example). What they also expected was that people living in areas where there's a near total lockdown wouldn't travel and that once they did, they'd follow local laws and go through quarantine. They clear didn't understand the Brits.


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## Ming the Merciless (28 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Dead easy to say what you hypothetically would have done. That butters no parsnips



Nothing hypothetical about it. I have chosen not to take a skiing holiday in the middle of a pandemic.


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## mjr (28 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Dead easy to say what you hypothetically would have done. That butters no parsnips


Which is why someone doesn't get fined for saying they'd act like a daffodil and break Swiss law. It's easy to claim you'd act like an entitled thick gammon when there's no risk of having to prove it.


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## slowmotion (28 Dec 2020)

Rocky said:


> I do know the Swiss are absolutely incandescent about it. My friend Gaby lives near to Verbier and there’s a huge anti-Brit feeling. Whatever the rights and wrongs, it’s left a bitter taste.


Nobody comes out of the episode covered in glory, including the Swiss. If you open up a ski resort in the middle of a pandemic, you've got to be either greedy or naïve. Answers on a postcard.


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## nickyboy (28 Dec 2020)

Gammon and parsnips...it's like a rather pleasant Boxing Day lunch

The moral fortitude of posters here never ceases to amaze me. If only everyone was able to occupy such a high moral ground we'd be laughing


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## Rocky (28 Dec 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Nobody comes out of the episode covered in glory, including the Swiss. If you open up a ski resort in the middle of a pandemic, you've got to be either greedy or naïve. Answers on a postcard.


I’ve answered that up thread - aren’t the Swiss allowed to ski in their own country in case a few rogue Brits decide to gatecrash and cough all over them?


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Dec 2020)

nickyboy said:


> Gammon and parsnips...it's like a rather pleasant Boxing Day lunch
> 
> The moral fortitude of posters here never ceases to amaze me. If only everyone was able to occupy such a high moral ground we'd be laughing



Fortitude bullshit.

I chose not to go away this Christmas because there's a pandemic on. 

I chose not to see my parents because there's a pandemic on. 

Why the fark should I have the slightest sympathy for well heeled self entitled idiots who put all of us at risk by not only going ahead with high risk activities but running from the consequences and putting people at yet more risk?

Moral fortitude my hairy arse crack.

They're total [redacted].


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## slowmotion (28 Dec 2020)

Rocky said:


> I’ve answered that up thread - aren’t the Swiss allowed to ski in their own country in case a few rogue Brits decide to gatecrash and cough all over them?


Sorry, I don't know of that post. Given the nature of uphill transport at ski resorts, I can't think of a better way to spread Coronavirus better and quicker. Anyway, if the hoteliers didn't want the business, why let them book rooms?
BTW, I think the Brits were arrogant prats.


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## shep (28 Dec 2020)

Rocky said:


> I’ve answered that up thread - aren’t the Swiss allowed to ski in their own country in case a few rogue Brits decide to gatecrash and cough all over them?


Why take bookings from non Swiss then?


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## Rocky (28 Dec 2020)

slowmotion said:


> Sorry, I don't know of that post. Given the nature of uphill transport at ski resorts, I can't think of a better way to spread Coronavirus better and quicker. Anyway, if the hoteliers didn't want the business, why let them book rooms?
> BTW, I think the Brits were arrogant prats.


I agree with all of that. And yes, on reflection no one comes out of it well.


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> Why take bookings from non Swiss then?



Nobody comes out of this well.


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Dec 2020)

Rocky said:


> I agree with all of that. And yes, on reflection no one comes out of it well.



SNAP!!


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## Rocky (28 Dec 2020)

shep said:


> Why take bookings from non Swiss then?


I don’t know but I’m assuming that when the bookings were made the new strain of Covid wasn’t circulating. But I’m not going to defend Swiss hoteliers.....and I hate skiing myself (am totally uncoordinated and always fall over and hate the cold).


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## Joey Shabadoo (28 Dec 2020)

South Africa has responded to their latest variant leading to increased cases by tightening restrictions and imposing a curfew. Will we see such measures along with compulsory mask wearing outdoors here or is that too "un-British"?


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## slowmotion (28 Dec 2020)

Rocky said:


> I don’t know but I’m assuming that when the bookings were made the new strain of Covid wasn’t circulating. But I’m not going to defend Swiss hoteliers.....and I hate skiing myself (am totally uncoordinated and always fall over and hate the cold).


When this is all over, have another go at it. Not in Switzerland. It's good fun but extremely harsh on your personal finances.


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## mjr (28 Dec 2020)

Before you criticise the Swiss for allowing skiing, remember that Glenmore was open until 21 December and Cairngorm Mountain was open to locals for skiing until Christmas Eve.


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Before you criticise the Swiss for allowing skiing, remember that Glenmore was open until 21 December and Cairngorm Mountain was open to locals for skiing until Christmas Eve.



I refer you to the answer I gave earlier. 

https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6248698


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## mjr (28 Dec 2020)

Moreover, it seems https://www.ski-glenshee.co.uk/ is still open now.

Can't really blame them for trying to keep working if it is allowed and government won't bail them out. It should be possible to ski without infecting people, with a little care. It's not inherently riskier than cycling, is it? It's the stuff around it like lifts and catering that has to change.


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## Rusty Nails (28 Dec 2020)

slowmotion said:


> When this is all over, have another go at it. Not in Switzerland. It's good fun but extremely harsh on your personal finances.



When I was younger, had good knees, had kids and little money I could never afford to go skiing.

When I got older, had money and the kids left home my knees were shot so could not afford to go skiing, for a different reason.

I always consoled myself that you could never get any good at it in just a couple of weeks a year.

And those Brits in Verbier were complete tossers.


----------



## slowmotion (28 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Moreover, it seems https://www.ski-glenshee.co.uk/ is still open now.
> 
> Can't really blame them for trying to keep working if it is allowed and government won't bail them out. It should be possible to ski without infecting people, with a little care. It's not inherently riskier than cycling, is it? It's the stuff around it like lifts and catering that has to change.


It's a whole lot different from cycling. Try walking up a thousand feet of snow slope wearing seal skins on the bottom of your skis.
Most people take ski lifts and it's not a trivial problem to 'socially distance' on lifts while you're sweating and panting from the last ski run. It's madness.


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## mjr (28 Dec 2020)

slowmotion said:


> It's a whole lot different from cycling. Try walking up a thousand feet of snow slope wearing seal skins on the bottom of your skis.


In terms of covid and distancing, obvs.



> Most people take ski lifts and it's not a trivial problem to 'socially distance' on lifts while you're sweating and panting from the last ski run. It's madness.


Looks trivial: max one household or bubble per lift vehicle.


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## slowmotion (28 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> In terms of covid and distancing, obvs.
> 
> 
> Looks trivial: max one household or bubble per lift vehicle.


Here's what the Swiss seem happy with......

https://www.thelocal.ch/20201124/covid-19-is-it-safe-to-ski-in-the-swiss-alps-this-season


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## Archie_tect (28 Dec 2020)

Italian skiers in February 2020 created an early Covid spike in ignorance... the Verbier skiers know exactly what they are inflicting on the people they're returning to.


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## marinyork (29 Dec 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> South Africa has responded to their latest variant leading to increased cases by tightening restrictions and imposing a curfew. Will we see such measures along with compulsory mask wearing outdoors here or is that too "un-British"?



We had ryanair tv adverts saying that the vaccine was here, book holidays! Does that help?


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## Joey Shabadoo (29 Dec 2020)

marinyork said:


> We had ryanair tv adverts saying that the vaccine was here, book holidays! Does that help?


I got an email from Trivago who I've used before for holidays. They said it was time to make dreams real and book a summer 2021 break now - 


in Birmingham, Manchester or Inverness


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## pawl (29 Dec 2020)

Ryan Air .Latest TV ad Jab and go Pillocks.


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## Yellow Fang (29 Dec 2020)

I am beginning to wonder whether the Oxford Astrazeneca vaccine is going to be in time now. It's cheap and easier enough to store that it might have been useful in developing parts of the world, as well as here. But the new, more infectious strains might infect most people before they can get vaccinated.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (29 Dec 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> I am beginning to wonder whether the Oxford Astrazeneca vaccine is going to be in time now. It's cheap and easier enough to store that it might have been useful in developing parts of the world, as well as here. But the new, more infectious strains might infect most people before they can get vaccinated.



It depends how we act. 

If we put in place measures right now to suppress the virus, we'll probably be able to out- vaccinate it.

If not, it'll outrun us.

Alas, the govt is currently making the same mistake yet again. Let's hope they change.


----------



## mjr (29 Dec 2020)

Yellow Fang said:


> I am beginning to wonder whether the Oxford Astrazeneca vaccine is going to be in time now. It's cheap and easier enough to store that it might have been useful in developing parts of the world, as well as here. But the new, more infectious strains might infect most people before they can get vaccinated.


There are still two good things about the OxAZ vaccine: it might give longer immunity than actually catching covid; and there is a factory in India already speculatively making huge quantities of it since July because it is easier to make and to store than the two mRNA ones. https://www.dnaindia.com/india/repo...9-vaccine-by-dec-says-adar-poonawalla-2856412


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## fossyant (29 Dec 2020)

Rocky said:


> I think the Swiss had thought that Swiss people would like to ski over the Xmas holidays (my friend Gaby is a great skier for example). What they also expected was that people living in areas where there's a near total lockdown wouldn't travel and that once they did, they'd follow local laws and go through quarantine. They clear didn't understand the Brits.



Just like all those Londoners who fled London before Christmas to share the virus around again.


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## mjr (29 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> Just like all those Londoners who fled London before Christmas to share the virus around again.


Yeah. Not even the British Government expects the Brits to behave like Brits.

Or maybe they do and yet again leaving a gap between rule changes being announced and taking effect was a deliberate attempt to spread the new strain more widely just before the "Christmas Day Is Covid Party Day" event and produce a plausible alternative explanation for the GDP drop to the latest gov.uk acts of self-harm and incompetence? "We're sorry Boris's economy is 8% smaller than expected but it is not his fault. It is due to that COVID thing getting worse again due to feckless Londoners and not people like Boris's dad."


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## pawl (29 Dec 2020)

fossyant said:


> Just like all those Londoners who fled London before Christmas to share the virus around again.




Still fleeing by all accounts?Brecon Beacons this time.


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## Rusty Nails (29 Dec 2020)

pawl said:


> Still fleeing by all accounts?Brecon Beacons this time.


We've got enough idiots of our own trooping up the overcrowded path to Pen-y-Fan every day of the holidays, without extra ones from London.

Local hills for local people.


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## Ming the Merciless (29 Dec 2020)

pawl said:


> Still fleeing by all accounts?Brecon Beacons this time.



That’s the lot from Verbier just got back


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## Rocky (29 Dec 2020)

Ming the Merciless said:


> That’s the lot from Verbier just got back


Or the Swiss getting their revenge


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## deptfordmarmoset (29 Dec 2020)

Denmark, close to covid capacity, has extended hard lockdown till 17 Jan. No school, no shopping malls.

Nightingale hospitals slowly being dismantled, the London Excel is already being stripped for lack of staff. 

For heaven's sake, keep our schools shut too!


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## Unkraut (30 Dec 2020)

Rusty Nails said:


> We've got enough idiots of our own trooping up the overcrowded path to Pen-y-Fan every day of the holidays, without extra ones from London.
> 
> Local hills for local people.


Black Forest was overrun by people wanting a day out in the snow on Sunday. Day trippers torpedo corona rules was the headline. Police couldn't keep on top of it, though some will be feeling it was a expensive day out when the fine drops into their post box. Idiocy doesn't recognise borders.


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## Joey Shabadoo (30 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Black Forest was overrun by people wanting a day out in the snow on Sunday. Day trippers torpedo corona rules was the headline. Police couldn't keep on top of it, though some will be feeling it was a expensive day out when the fine drops into their post box. Idiocy doesn't recognise borders.
> 
> View attachment 566123


You know what they say about the Black Forest though. When you gateau go, you gateau go.


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## Stephenite (30 Dec 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> You know what they say about the Black Forest though. When you gateau go, you gateau go.


Brilliant. Gallows humour at it's best. 

Anyone seen @MarkF recently?


----------



## slowmotion (30 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Black Forest was overrun by people wanting a day out in the snow on Sunday. Day trippers torpedo corona rules was the headline. Police couldn't keep on top of it, though some will be feeling it was a expensive day out when the fine drops into their post box. Idiocy doesn't recognise borders.
> 
> View attachment 566123


Good Lord! That's got to be a fake picture. I thought only the Brits behaved badly.


----------



## matticus (30 Dec 2020)

(I haven't been keeping up, so apologies if this is already on this thread: )
https://apnews.com/article/public-h...demic-denver-755cd6f5e9189b1890f34f625d6a37f8

DENVER (AP) — *The first reported U.S. case of the COVID-19 variant that’s been seen in the United Kingdom has been discovered in Colorado*, Gov. Jared Polis announced Tuesday, adding urgency to efforts to vaccinate Americans.

The variant was found in a man in his 20s who is in isolation southeast of Denver in Elbert County and has no travel history, state health officials said.

Elbert County is a mainly rural area of rolling plains at the far edge of the Denver metro area that includes a portion of Interstate 70, the state’s main east-west highway.
............


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## Slick (30 Dec 2020)

In better news, the second vaccine has finally been given approval this morning with the first rollout to be as early as the 6th of January and a 12 week wait for the second dose to allow them to protect lots more of us in the first round. 

Obviously some will be anxious about the wait but the evidence is quite robust apparently that protection starts within 2 to 3 weeks of the first dose and to date, nobody who has had the first lot has had to present to hospital with a severe reaction to the virus. 🤞


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Dec 2020)

Slick said:


> In better news, the second vaccine has finally been given approval this morning with the first rollout to be as early as the 6th of January and a 12 week wait for the second dose to allow them to protect lots more of us in the first round.
> 
> Obviously some will be anxious about the wait but the evidence is quite robust apparently that protection starts within 2 to 3 weeks of the first dose and to date, nobody who has had the first lot has had to present to hospital with a severe reaction to the virus. 🤞


Cheaper and easier to roll out too. However, there seems to be precious little info on the elderly, who are the most pressing candidates for vaccination.


----------



## Johnno260 (30 Dec 2020)

Unkraut said:


> Black Forest was overrun by people wanting a day out in the snow on Sunday. Day trippers torpedo corona rules was the headline. Police couldn't keep on top of it, though some will be feeling it was a expensive day out when the fine drops into their post box. Idiocy doesn't recognise borders.
> 
> View attachment 566123



This is my issue everytime I hear we trust in peoples common sense, I hope these special snowflakes all get fined.

I have some of these type of morons in my family who think the rules are exempt to them, my uncle put a huge post about enforced mask wearing when he feels it's not an issue and he feels it's an infringement on his rights, my response was that's the issue he is looking at what affects him and not others, told him to go watch a colony of ants as they're more socially responsible than him, and he could learn a thing or two.

I'm tired of these type of idiots, it's behavior like this that's extended and feeding this virus.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (30 Dec 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> You know what they say about the Black Forest though. When you gateau go, you gateau go.



Let them eat cake was the response


----------



## kingrollo (30 Dec 2020)

Stephenite said:


> Brilliant. Gallows humour at it's best.
> 
> Anyone seen @MarkF recently?



Yeah - he said" there's no 2nd wave "


----------



## BoldonLad (30 Dec 2020)

potsy said:


> Went supermarket shopping this morning, never seen it so quiet, I was expecting chaos and crowds!



Same here, mind you, we did go at 06:45 , and were back home by 08:00


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## Johnno260 (30 Dec 2020)

BoldonLad said:


> Same here, mind you, we did go at 06:45 , and were back home by 08:00



It's best to go early still, if you wait then the shelves aren't fully stocked in the evening, nothing to do with dwindling stock just the gannets taking it faster than the supermarkets can re-stock them


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## rockyroller (30 Dec 2020)

3,725 Americans died from it yesterday, including a 41 yr old republican Senator elect, only 2 weeks after reporting his positive test. w/ a new variant that is more contagious, I don't understand why this country is so resistant to following the lead of smarter countries

will 3 - 4 thousand Americans die today from it? who will they be?


----------



## pawl (30 Dec 2020)

Johnno260 said:


> It's best to go early still, if you wait then the shelves aren't fully stocked in the evening, nothing to do with dwindling stock just the gannets taking it faster than the supermarkets can re-stock them



Just returned from M&S food hall shelves well stocked Most of our groceries we have delivered from Tesco.Only use M&S for meat as we don’t have a local butcher .


----------



## Unkraut (30 Dec 2020)

slowmotion said:


> That's got to be a fake picture. I thought only the Brits behaved badly.


Unfortunately not. I doubt if the majority were deliberately setting out to break the rules, they were desperate for a few hours away from the restrictions, and when the police tried to restore some semblance of order most were cooperative. Still no excuse in the current circumstances though.

About 20% - and this seems to be consistent figure from what I have read - became very aggressive. These are the covid deniers, those who have no intention of ever obeying any restrictions. Those who only change their minds on release from intensive care, and in a few instances those who continue to protest corona is not to blame even as they are dying (Hamburg clinic).

The irony is that just before Christmas three hospitals in the south of the Black Forest had to close to new admissions due to being overrun with corona patients.


----------



## Slick (30 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Cheaper and easier to roll out too. However, there seems to be precious little info on the elderly, who are the most pressing candidates for vaccination.


Yeah no storage issues so much easier and I think the age thing still stands with oldest first once front line staff and the vulnerable are sorted.


----------



## Slick (30 Dec 2020)

rockyroller said:


> 3,725 Americans died from it yesterday, including a 41 yr old republican Senator elect, only 2 weeks after reporting his positive test. w/ a new variant that is more contagious, I don't understand why this country is so resistant to following the lead of smarter countries
> 
> will 3 - 4 thousand Americans die today from it? who will they be?


I have quite a lot of family on your side of the pond and was pretty shocked by their opinion on things and even if they would accept the vaccine should it be offered. I had to bite my tongue as I don't see them nearly enough to fall out over something they are not going to change their minds over.


----------



## mjr (30 Dec 2020)

Hancocky to speak in the Commons soon after 2.30pm. Expect Tier 5 to appear but who knows what extra measures that may add. Any guesses? Close schools? Close or near-close pee taking offices with bosses who refuse to allow working from home? Will he dare try to limit movement to essential reasons with a form filled out, French-style?


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## Julia9054 (30 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Hancocky to speak in the Commons soon after 2.30pm. Expect Tier 5 to appear but who knows what extra measures that may add. Any guesses? Close schools? Close or near-close pee taking offices with bosses who refuse to allow working from home? Will he dare try to limit movement to essential reasons with a form filled out, French-style?


----------



## Slick (30 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> Hancocky to speak in the Commons soon after 2.30pm. Expect Tier 5 to appear but who knows what extra measures that may add. Any guesses? Close schools? Close or near-close pee taking offices with bosses who refuse to allow working from home? Will he dare try to limit movement to essential reasons with a form filled out, French-style?


I think a 4 week or so lockdown, including the schools would help give the new vaccine a chance to do some good. I can't see it happening though as the school thing has just become so political.


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## mjr (30 Dec 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> View attachment 566165


Yeah, I've seen many similar spoofs. Not really helpful when reality is also making about as little sense!


----------



## Slick (30 Dec 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> View attachment 566165


I nearly gave that a "laugh" until I saw tier 6.


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## Julia9054 (30 Dec 2020)

Slick said:


> I nearly gave that a "laugh" until I saw tier 6.


Tier 6 is the most acceptable imo


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## Slick (30 Dec 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Tier 6 is the most acceptable imo


It does feel that way doesn't it.


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## rockyroller (30 Dec 2020)

Slick said:


> I have quite a lot of family on your side of the pond and was pretty shocked by their opinion on things and even if they would accept the vaccine should it be offered. I had to bite my tongue as I don't see them nearly enough to fall out over something they are not going to change their minds over.


understandable. I've done similar in limited situations. mostly not, calling out what is, for what it is. here's hoping for better times with our friends & family in the not too distant future


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## rockyroller (30 Dec 2020)

I think humor has it's place, so long as it doesn't deny truth. we all need to commiserate together but separate







more here (disclaimer don't know anything about that website, other than it had a funny meme worth sharing)


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## Slick (30 Dec 2020)

rockyroller said:


> understandable. I've done similar in limited situations. mostly not, calling out what is, for what it is. here's hoping for better times with our friends & family in the not too distant future


Here here. 🍻


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## midlife (30 Dec 2020)

Cumbria go from tier 2 to tier 4. Wonder what they will do with schools?


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## gbb (30 Dec 2020)

Staggering behaviour round here. 
I said to my wife tonight, if a REALLY, seriously more lethal pandemic ever hit the world....we are all fooked.

Work, staggering lack of social distancing as soon as a significant section of the workforce are left to their own devices.
Town...christ, you'd never know there was a pandemic.
My weekly visit to a supermarket tonight...they're selling fireworks. FFS, a non socially distanced queue to by bl**dy fireworks. 
Alcohol aisles were chocker. 
Queues at the tills, social distancing is collapsing, it's almost non existent now.
I mentioned it to the till op, she said it was far worse earlier today, and as we spoke, a family were itching right up to me, impatience. 
I'm gonna start shopping somewhere a bit upmarket where hopefully people use their heads.

I shake my head in disbelief at the astounding stupidity of people...more and more.


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## geocycle (30 Dec 2020)

Brilliant tweet from a headteacher. ’Has anyone told Gavin Williamson that the element of surprise is a lot more useful in Defence than Education.’


----------



## Johnno260 (30 Dec 2020)

gbb said:


> Staggering behaviour round here.
> I said to my wife tonight, if a REALLY, seriously more lethal pandemic ever hit the world....we are all fooked.



Pretty much this.

There is a huge chunk of people who either don’t care or don’t believe, or both. 

There is a shocking amount of snowflakes who believe being told to do something to keep them safe is an infringement of their rights, because potentially dying isn’t worse, and dying from basically choking on fluid in their lungs. 

In short many people are selfish tossers these days, sorry for the language.


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## Joey Shabadoo (30 Dec 2020)

I think it's because they don't see the deaths and it happens to other people.


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## Joey Shabadoo (30 Dec 2020)

View: https://twitter.com/CraigColeman97/status/1343484028800921602


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## Slick (30 Dec 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/CraigColeman97/status/1343484028800921602



Maybe judging how serious a worldwide pandemic is by who Craig knows isn't the best idea.


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## Ming the Merciless (30 Dec 2020)

I also like this one.


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## mjr (30 Dec 2020)

gbb said:


> I'm gonna start shopping somewhere a bit upmarket where hopefully people use their heads.


It doesn't seem to matter here. Sainsburys and M&S are as bad as Tesco and The Range. Posher people tend to read news from more anti-rules nobbers, perhaps.

Do what you can, including fast shopping, putting your trolley behind you in the queue and favouring open air markets and open front shops where they still exist.


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## Ming the Merciless (30 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> It doesn't seem to matter here. Sainsburys and M&S are as bad as Tesco and The Range. Do what you can, including fast shopping, putting your trolley behind you in the queue and favouring open air markets and open front shops where they still exist.



The shops you mention are all much of a muchness. They said upmarket, think Harrods.


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## mjr (30 Dec 2020)

Ming the Merciless said:


> The shops you mention are all much of a muchness. They said upmarket, think Harrods.


Harrods of King's Lynn closed many years ago. No food hall, neither. Excellent Caribbean restaurant there instead now: Soul Café and Restaurant.


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## MntnMan62 (31 Dec 2020)

Since the beginning of the pandemic we've pretty much hunkered down at home. I went out for sporadic bike rides when the weather was warmer. Then I just vegged like a couch potato. I've decided enough is enough and last week I started getting on the elliptical again. 5 min on Friday, 10 min on Saturday, 15 min on Sunday, 20 min yesterday and another 20 min today. We have a close knit block and we have been occassionally hanging with a neighbor across the street as well as 3 other families, all of whom have been diligent with being safe. But yesterday we found out that one of these families went down south to a relatives and came back with the 'rona. So, the jig is up. No one is hanging with anyone anymore. Our only scare was when my wife found out that one of her employees had someone in her home test postive. So my wife and son and I went to get tested about a month and a half ago and fortunately we all tested negative. I kind of like being a homebody. It allows me to perfect my new hobby which is cooking. Came up with a great chili recipe, as well as a beef stew recipe. An the other day I made an amazing ham and cheese quiche with some of the leftover ham from Christmas. I also made a nice split pea soup with the same ham. And for Christmas I made an appetizer of dates, stuffed with blue cheese, wrapped in bacon and then drizzled with honey. Amazing. I decided I'm going to make the chili again for the Super Bowl and will also make some authentic Anchor Bar Buffalo Wings. I have a large propane fired turkey fryer that I'll use to fry the wings. And I have the Anchor Bar's recipe for their sauce which I find to be insanely delicious. I didn't spend 4 years in Buffalo for college for nothing.


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## DaveReading (31 Dec 2020)

geocycle said:


> Brilliant tweet from a headteacher. ’Has anyone told Gavin Williamson that the element of surprise is a lot more useful in Defence than Education.’



I can't believe a head teacher would be guilty of such an ambiguous comment.


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## deptfordmarmoset (31 Dec 2020)

DaveReading said:


> I can't believe a head teacher would be guilty of such an ambiguous comment.


I've just spent a while trying to figure out what Williamson said about schools yesterday. I find the man impossible to listen to: it's all a kind of nasal dirge delivered as a sermon that makes me zone out completely. I get the impression that a fair few commentators don't have much more of an idea.


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## Poacher (31 Dec 2020)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I've just spent a while trying to figure out what Williamson said about schools yesterday. I find the man impossible to listen to: it's all a kind of nasal dirge delivered as a sermon that makes me zone out completely. I get the impression that a fair few commentators don't have much more of an idea.


He's just finished a repeat performance on R4. Pretty much identical.


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## Julia9054 (31 Dec 2020)

My favourite Twitter exchange from yesterday. It’s still as clear as mud which classes I’m supposed to be providing remote education for and when.
My “leave your homework until Sunday night” approach to life is justified. Some of my more conscientious colleagues have re planned next week 3 times!


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## Slick (31 Dec 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> View attachment 566354
> 
> My favourite Twitter exchange from yesterday. It’s still as clear as mud which classes I’m supposed to be providing remote education for and when.
> My “leave your homework until Sunday night” approach to life is justified. Some of my more conscientious colleagues have re planned next week 3 times!


I work in a college and pre-planned our opening strategy countless times and I don't intend to make the same mistake again. We are due back on the 5th but obviously that is looking more and more unlikely so I think I will leave my homework until Sunday night and just hope those above me aren't.


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## SpokeyDokey (31 Dec 2020)

Hoping that with more of the country now in T4 that it will be easier to spot law-breakers moving between towns/counties as there will be less traffic on the roads - already the case in SE Lake District.

Also hoping to see the police pulling over unwelcome visitors during these restrictions. There appears to have been some activity on the A590/591 routes from J36/M6 which is encouraging.

Very pleased that the T4 rules specify that outdoor leisure activities can only be carried out near to home (although it would be very helpful if the distance was referenced). I'm all for a keep away from where I live approach and vice-versa - although we've been doing the latter since early this year.

Sounds almost like siege mentality but I think that's where we are.


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## SpokeyDokey (31 Dec 2020)

The only thing that puzzles me is why South Lakeland is in T4 and not T3?

Population - 103000.

Total cases to 30 Dec - 2800

Deaths to 18 Dec - 203

Presumably as it has been lumped in with the rest of the county - worse figures in Barrow & Carlisle which are not South Lakeland.


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## midlife (31 Dec 2020)

Yep, politically and admin wise they place Cumbria in a single block. Plus I guess it limits travel.


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## BoldonLad (31 Dec 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Hoping that with more of the country now in T4 that it will be easier to spot law-breakers moving between towns/counties as there will be less traffic on the roads - already the case in SE Lake District.
> 
> Also hoping to see the police pulling over unwelcome visitors during these restrictions. There appears to have been some activity on the A590/591 routes from J36/M6 which is encouraging.
> 
> ...


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## Joey Shabadoo (31 Dec 2020)

Perfect example of the people who don't care. Went to local grocers for paracetamol for wife. As I arrive, guy does a big u-turn in the road to park badly outside the door, jumps out and saunters in (sans mask). In a very loud voice at the counter "Ehhhh, can ah huv 4 bottles o' Glen's vodka, 2 bottles o' Grouse and four slabs (24 cans each) o' Tennents hen". Something tells me he's having a party tonight.


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## vickster (31 Dec 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Perfect example of the people who don't care. Went to local grocers for paracetamol for wife. As I arrive, guy does a big u-turn in the road to park badly outside the door, jumps out and saunters in (sans mask). In a very loud voice at the counter "Ehhhh, can ah huv 4 bottles o' Glen's vodka, 2 bottles o' Grouse and four slabs (24 cans each) o' Tennents hen". Something tells me he's having a party tonight.


Well that's a bit crap...

shouldn't his guests bring their own booze...bloody freeloaders


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## Julia9054 (31 Dec 2020)

Communication from my headteacher tells me that, from Monday, I am doing live online lessons via Microsoft Teams for all year groups. I am not expected in school so am teaching from home.
Really annoying for a couple of reasons. Firstly, I have left a load of stuff at school that I could do with having at home and secondly, there is a plumber coming on Monday so the water will be off. Was hoping to just hand over a key, go to work and leave him to it.


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## mistyoptic (31 Dec 2020)

I'm sure @Drago will correct me on the terminology but, if you are told that your actions could result in someone's death and yet you continue with the behaviour, isn't that at least potential manslaughter? Should we start locking up some of these idiots? I'm fed up with hearing folk banging on about "my civil liberty" and "my human rights" etc. Time to think about the greater good and stop being so selfish


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## PK99 (31 Dec 2020)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Perfect example of the people who don't care. Went to local grocers for paracetamol for wife. As I arrive, guy does a big u-turn in the road to park badly outside the door, jumps out and saunters in (sans mask). In a very loud voice at the counter "Ehhhh, can ah huv 4 bottles o' Glen's vodka, 2 bottles o' Grouse and four slabs (24 cans each) o' Tennents hen". Something tells me he's having a party tonight.



Take his car number and file an anonymous online report to the Covid report line


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## raleighnut (31 Dec 2020)

vickster said:


> Well that's a bit crap...
> 
> shouldn't his guests bring their own booze...bloody freeloaders


I dunno time was I could shift that in a weekend.


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## vickster (31 Dec 2020)

raleighnut said:


> I dunno time was I could shift that in a weekend.


 And you still have a functioning liver?!


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## Slick (31 Dec 2020)

vickster said:


> And you still have a functioning liver?!


Probably hopeful at best.


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## Slick (31 Dec 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> Communication from my headteacher tells me that, from Monday, I am doing live online lessons via Microsoft Teams for all year groups. I am not expected in school so am teaching from home.
> Really annoying for a couple of reasons. Firstly, I have left a load of stuff at school that I could do with having at home and secondly, there is a plumber coming on Monday so the water will be off. Was hoping to just hand over a key, go to work and leave him to it.


That is a bit rubbish if not entirely unexpected. I reckon it's going to be a long couple of months.


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## Julia9054 (31 Dec 2020)

Slick said:


> That is a bit rubbish if not entirely unexpected. I reckon it's going to be a long couple of months.


The following week year 11 and year 13 are back in person so not too bad. Also teaching staff not expected to be involved in testing students so that’s a relief. School is struggling to set the testing regime up for the first week as the training materials on how to run and administer the whole thing were only released yesterday. Tests have not arrived in school yet - expected Monday.
Favourite tweet I saw yesterday.
“Anyone who thinks that secondary school pupils can swab themselves has never asked them to glue in a worksheet”


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## mjr (31 Dec 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Very pleased that the T4 rules specify that outdoor leisure activities can only be carried out near to home (although it would be very helpful if the distance was referenced).


The rules don't specify that. See https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1374/schedule/3A/part/1

The advice says to exercise near home and at most not leave your borough/district, but it is not a rule. Yet again, the police have one hand tied behind their back and the spreaders know it.


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## geocycle (31 Dec 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> The only thing that puzzles me is why South Lakeland is in T4 and not T3?
> 
> Population - 103000.
> 
> ...



Yes I sympathise. We have the same issue with Lancaster being much lower than south Lancashire. But in some ways I find it easier when virtually everywhere (except N Yorkshire and Cornwall) are in the same tier.


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## Julia9054 (31 Dec 2020)

geocycle said:


> Yes I sympathise. We have the same issue with Lancaster being much lower than south Lancashire. But in some ways I find it easier when virtually everywhere (except N Yorkshire and Cornwall) are in the same tier.


N Yorks are in tier 3. Same as most of the rest of Yorkshire


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## RoadRider400 (31 Dec 2020)

gbb said:


> Staggering behaviour round here.
> *I said to my wife tonight, if a REALLY, seriously more lethal pandemic ever hit the world....we are all fooked.*
> 
> Work, staggering lack of social distancing as soon as a significant section of the workforce are left to their own devices.
> ...


I think public behaviour has changed throughout the year. Back in February and March little was known about the virus and I observed the vast majority of people were obeying the rules stringently. As more became known about the virus people have got somewhat lax around the rules, and I expect this is because people now realise the virus isnt going to kill a particulary high percentage of the population.

Now before anybody goes off on one, I am not saying that this is acceptable and we _should still _all be doing everything we can to stop the spread. However I do believe that if this was something like Ebola with a 50% mortality rate, I bet the general populus would be a lot more rigorous with adhering to what the government are telling us.

All people are doing is adapting to the information they are presented with. Yes for the most part its selfish, but it does not mean we are incapable of dealing with something more lethal.

Granted there would still be the odd fool, but if they caught it and popped their clogs then well thats simply evolution.


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## PK99 (31 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> The rules don't specify that. See https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1374/schedule/3A/part/1
> 
> Yet again, the police have one hand tied behind their back and the spreaders know it.



Yet again, we are not an authoritarian society and police by consent rather than political dictat plus paramilitary policing and therefore have neither the tools to control, nor success in controlling, the spread of the virus as do some more authoritarian societies. 

Would we as a society have accepted authoritarian control as the price of controlling the virus?


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## SpokeyDokey (31 Dec 2020)

mjr said:


> The rules don't specify that. See https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1374/schedule/3A/part/1
> 
> The advice says to exercise near home and at most not leave your borough/district, but it is not a rule. Yet again, the police have one hand tied behind their back and the spreaders know it.



I was just quoting this @mjr

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home#travel

_Travel

Travelling within a Tier 4 area

If you live in a Tier 4 area, you must not leave your home unless you have a reasonable excuse (for example, for work or education purposes). If you need to travel you should stay local – meaning avoiding travelling outside of your village, town or the part of a city where you live – and look to reduce the number of journeys you make overall. The list of reasons you can leave your home and area include, but are not limited to:

work, where you cannot work from home
accessing education and for caring responsibilities
visiting those in your support bubble – or your childcare bubble for childcare
visiting hospital, GP and other medical appointments or visits where you have had an accident or are concerned about your health
buying goods or services from premises that are open in Tier 4 areas, including essential retail, but these should be within your local area wherever possible
*outdoor recreation or exercise. This should be done locally wherever possible, but you can travel a short distance within your Tier 4 area to do so if necessary (for example, to access an open space)*
attending the care and exercise of an animal, or veterinary services

***_

I'm wondering if the discrepancy is because the rules update you have shown is only up to 26 December?


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## geocycle (31 Dec 2020)

@Julia9054 sorry yes that was what I meant, almost all of England is in tier 4 now with the exception of most of Yorkshire, Cornwall and a few others which are tier 3. Being near the boundary of Lancashire, Yorkshire and Cumbria it Is tricky when these big counties are in different Tiers.


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## mjr (31 Dec 2020)

PK99 said:


> Yet again, we are not an authoritarian society and police by consent rather than political dictat plus paramilitary policing and therefore have neither the tools to control, nor success in controlling, the spread of the virus as do some more authoritarian societies.
> 
> Would we as a society have accepted authoritarian control as the price of controlling the virus?


gov.uk could still enable policing by consent without complete blithering inconsistency and unnecessary confusion between the advice and the rules, unless you think accurate public information is only done by countries that have paramilitary police!



SpokeyDokey said:


> I was just quoting this @mjr
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home#travel


Yep, that is mostly advice not rules and does not accurately summarise the rules.

The discrepency is nothing to do with dates after 26 Dec because that rule wasn't materially changed by anything in yesterday's change https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1654/regulation/2/made


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## gbb (31 Dec 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> I think public behaviour has changed throughout the year. Back in February and March little was known about the virus and I observed the vast majority of people were obeying the rules stringently. As more became known about the virus people have got somewhat lax around the rules, and I expect this is because people now realise the virus isnt going to kill a particulary high percentage of the population.
> 
> Now before anybody goes off on one, I am not saying that this is acceptable and we _should still _all be doing everything we can to stop the spread. However I do believe that if this was something like Ebola with a 50% mortality rate, I bet the general populus would be a lot more rigorous with adhering to what the government are telling us.
> 
> ...


Actually, I suspect you're right...


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## Slick (31 Dec 2020)

Julia9054 said:


> The following week year 11 and year 13 are back in person so not too bad. Also teaching staff not expected to be involved in testing students so that’s a relief. School is struggling to set the testing regime up for the first week as the training materials on how to run and administer the whole thing were only released yesterday. Tests have not arrived in school yet - expected Monday.
> Favourite tweet I saw yesterday.
> “Anyone who thinks that secondary school pupils can swab themselves has never asked them to glue in a worksheet”


A friend was telling me of his experiences when he was tested which I won't bore you with but I'm not convinced I'd be able to do that to myself let alone a secondary school pupil. 

Also, the inevitable call came to me today, get in touch with all the learners due to return on the 5th and cancel them. 

I am sad, but if I'm honest it's a but if a relief.


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## midlife (31 Dec 2020)

Slick said:


> A friend was telling me of his experiences when he was tested which I won't bore you with but I'm not convinced I'd be able to do that to myself let alone a secondary school pupil.
> 
> Also, the inevitable call came to me today, get in touch with all the learners due to return on the 5th and cancel them.
> 
> I am sad, but if I'm honest it's a but if a relief.



My Innova lateral flow test uses a small swab 15 mm into each nostril for 10 rotations. Not the swab required for PCR which is right back in the throat.

Most difficult bit is dispensing the 6 drops of extraction fluid. I use a clothes peg to keep the little plastic vial upright.

Main problem is the false negatives which has been mentioned upthread.


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## raleighnut (1 Jan 2021)

vickster said:


> And you still have a functioning liver?!


Yep, just about I think, although it has taken a battering over the festivities. 
Pretty much off the Spirits these days although the odd cheeky G&T or a Cocktail (Maz bought a proper Cocktail Shaker a couple of months ago) is often taken as an apperitif at the weekends (I don't drink at all from Monday to Friday evening)


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## deptfordmarmoset (1 Jan 2021)

Finally, Williamson has been dragged by use of legal threats to keep London's primary schools closed at the end of the holidays. Why on earth do they have to defend the indefensible for so long before finally collapsing into a policy vacuum? Still, the use of legal threats neatly turns the tables after Williamson's legal threat when neighbouring Greenwich attempted to protect its own population in the face of spiralling infection rates.


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## SpokeyDokey (2 Jan 2021)

Footballers ignoring rules (****wits):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55515555


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## Unkraut (3 Jan 2021)

Has the rave in France been reported in British news? A couple of thousand getting together from various parts of France, no corona rules at all, and then getting violent when the police intervene. I think it's going to be expensive for some of them, but the cost in terms of potential infections is much worse.


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## mjr (3 Jan 2021)

Unkraut said:


> Has the rave in France been reported in British news?


Yep. With strange relish, as if nothing happened here with many dozens of people gathering illegally to let off fireworks and party (but not all in one barn)


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## Joey Shabadoo (3 Jan 2021)

Unkraut said:


> Has the rave in France been reported in British news? A couple of thousand getting together from various parts of France, no corona rules at all, and then getting violent when the police intervene. I think it's going to be expensive for some of them, but the cost in terms of potential infections is much worse.


Yes. The BBC seemed quite keen to report that Brits were involved.


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## mjr (3 Jan 2021)

Mr "Dither and Delay" Johnson is now on the BBC Marr show, delaying school closures and telling people to reload the covid incubators tomorrow. Repeated 7pm on BBC Parliament.


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## Slick (3 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Mr "Dither and Delay" Johnson is now on the BBC Marr show, delaying school closures and telling people to reload the covid incubators tomorrow. Repeated 7pm on BBC Parliament.


Just watching some highlights of the interview now in the news. He says the schools are really safe and whilst I get it doesn't affect the young it's obvious to anyone involved with schools they are not safe and can't do the whole 2m thing and the consequences of that is a high number if infections are coming from schools. The numbers either isolating or off sick for both students and teachers must tell him that. The teaching union announcing that its not safe to return really should be the final straw.


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## mjr (3 Jan 2021)

Also, was a face to face unmasked interview necessary and a good example for Boris to set to businesses returning to work tomorrow? That interview could have been done outside or over video link.


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## midlife (3 Jan 2021)

My wife's union (Unison) have told their members that schools are not a safe work environment and they should not go into work. Unison have drafted a letter for each member to give to their head teacher.


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## Slick (3 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> My wife's union (Unison) have told their members that schools are not a safe work environment and they should not go into work. Unison have drafted a letter for each member to give to their head teacher.


Sounds like it's going to be chaos tomorrow in England.


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## Julia9054 (3 Jan 2021)

There will be differences across different schools. As I have mentioned before, being an iPad school means that our ability to do live remote teaching is much better than in most schools. We are working from home teaching our full timetable via our iPads next week.
Al's school are expecting all staff in school in business dress so colleagues can support each other with the live element of teaching. 
My youngest is a cover supervisor (like an unqualified supply teacher) and is expected in school tomorrow. He has had no instruction on what he will be expected to do.


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## matticus (3 Jan 2021)

<general whinge, that has been festering since March:>

Correct, the virus doesn't know about "Tier Boundaries". Or curfew times. Or whether a group of 4 people drinking in a room has a card-payment device next to them.
Well done for making those astute, yet witty observations. But ...

How the heck are you going to draw-up laws WITHOUT arbitrary edges and distinctions?!?
Should we scrap speed limits? Or scrap all laws that are slightly different in other countries?


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## midlife (3 Jan 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> There will be differences across different schools. As I have mentioned before, being an iPad school means that our ability to do live remote teaching is much better than in most schools. We are working from home teaching our full timetable via our iPads next week.
> Al's school are expecting all staff in school in business dress so colleagues can support each other with the live element of teaching.
> My youngest is a cover supervisor (like an unqualified supply teacher) and is expected in school tomorrow. He has had no instruction on what he will be expected to do.



Carlisle is probably about 600 positive tests per 100,000. Birmingham with about 350 looking at keeping primary school closed. Our council is going to say something this afternoon I believe......


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## classic33 (3 Jan 2021)

Slick said:


> Sounds like it's going to be chaos tomorrow in England.


Tuesday, Bank Holiday Monday tomorrow!

Local schools to start testing, outside, before allowing anyone in when they go back.

Should be "fun" given the recent weather.


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## Slick (3 Jan 2021)

classic33 said:


> Tuesday, Bank Holiday Monday tomorrow!
> 
> Local schools to start testing, outside, before allowing anyone in when they go back.
> 
> Should be "fun" given the recent weather.


I thought the bank holiday was Scotland only?


----------



## midlife (3 Jan 2021)

Yep, Scotland only. Quite a few schools have an inset day tomorrow though.


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## Hover Fly (3 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Most of the cases in South Lakeland are over in Barrow-in-Furness which is a PITA if we have to go into T3 here on the eastern side of SL.
> 
> Better safe than sorry though.


Barrow is one of the lowest in the country (and not part of SLDC)
https://www.nwemail.co.uk/news/18983166.coronavirus-cumbria-round-up-saturday-january-3/


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## mjr (3 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> But ...
> 
> How the heck are you going to draw-up laws WITHOUT arbitrary edges and distinctions?!?
> Should we scrap speed limits? [...]


Bad example: speed limits are set to a published national policy. If there was a similar published policy for deciding area covid tiers, rather than occasional one-off justifications, it would probably look a lot less like dithering and delaying mixed with vindictiveness against Labour-voting cities.


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## PK99 (3 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Bad example: speed limits are set to a published national policy. If there was a similar published policy for deciding area covid tiers, rather than occasional one-off justifications, it would probably look a lot less like dithering and delaying mixed with* vindictiveness against Labour-voting cities.*



utter bollocks


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## mjr (3 Jan 2021)

PK99 said:


> utter bollocks


That is your opinion but compare the treatment of Labour-mayored Manchester and Leicester with that of Tory-mayored West Mids and West of England. It may have nothing to do with the mayoral party but without a published policy, it can look like it.


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## classic33 (4 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> That is your opinion but compare the treatment of Labour-mayored Manchester and Leicester with that of Tory-mayored West Mids and West of England. It may have nothing to do with the mayoral party but without a published policy, *it can look like it.*


Looks can be deceiving.

It remains just your opinion.


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## SpokeyDokey (4 Jan 2021)

Hover Fly said:


> Barrow is one of the lowest in the country (and not part of SLDC)
> https://www.nwemail.co.uk/news/18983166.coronavirus-cumbria-round-up-saturday-january-3/



That's good news re Barrow.

Sorry, I always forget Barrow is not South Lakeland.


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## matticus (4 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Bad example: speed limits are set to a published national policy. If there was a similar published policy for deciding area covid tiers, rather than occasional one-off justifications, it would probably look a lot less like dithering and delaying mixed with vindictiveness against Labour-voting cities.


Peeps would still make the _astounding _observation that there is a line on the map - sometimes through a field - that the virus must somehow know not to cross.


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## mjr (4 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> Peeps would still make the _astounding _observation that there is a line on the map - sometimes through a field - that the virus must somehow know not to cross.


But use of that line would no longer be "arbitrary" like you complained about.


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## PK99 (4 Jan 2021)

I don't normally pay any attention to Jeremy Clarkson, his output is mainly hyperbolic nonsense, But his column in Yesterdays Sunday Times was pointed out to me.

T'was about his brush with Covid over Xmas. Mainly full of his usual fluff but with some pertinent stuff and finishing with:


_This is the problem we have. We keep being told that we know a great deal about Covid, but what I’ve learnt over the past 10 days is: we don’t. We don’t know how long we are infectious for. We don’t know how to tackle it. We don’t know what it does to us.

We don’t know how long the antibodies last. We don’t know how easy it is to catch it twice. And we certainly don’t know if any of the vaccines will work long-term. I don’t even know if I’m better now. Seriously, I have absolutely no idea.

Maybe the BBC should consider this and in future stop asking clever-clever questions designed to make Boris look foolish, and instead ask clever questions that will help us understand something that scares us._


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## kingrollo (4 Jan 2021)

National lockdown until Easter ? - Being reported by a few outlets, can't see it myself. Also speculation that the SA variant maybe resistant to existing vaccines. I wonder if the two stories are connected ?

Would that mean all the produced stocks - would be no good ? - also would those vaccinated early need re jabbing with the tweeked dose ?


----------



## matticus (4 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> But use of that line would no longer be "arbitrary" like you complained about.


You're really not getting this! (you think a _county line_ isn't an arbitrary construct in the context of virus spread??) But it doesn't matter, I'm only whingeing about other people whingeing


----------



## matticus (4 Jan 2021)

PK99 said:


> I don't normally pay any attention to Jeremy Clarkson, his output is mainly hyperbolic nonsense, But his column in Yesterdays Sunday Times was pointed out to me.
> 
> T'was about his brush with Covid over Xmas. Mainly full of his usual fluff but with some pertinent stuff and finishing with:
> 
> ...


Substitute "every media interviewer (and indeed media and social media commentator)" for "BBC" and he may have something there.

<grinds teeth while admitting Clarkson might have said something worthwhile>

I feel dirty now ...


----------



## SpokeyDokey (4 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> Substitute *"every media interviewer (and indeed media and social media commentator)" *for "BBC" and he may have something there.
> 
> <grinds teeth while admitting Clarkson might have said something worthwhile>
> 
> I feel dirty now ...



You beat me to it!

Can I add Starmer please?


----------



## PK99 (4 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> Substitute "every media interviewer (and indeed media and social media commentator)" for "BBC" and he may have something there.
> 
> <grinds teeth while admitting Clarkson might have said something worthwhile>
> 
> I feel dirty now ...



Not quite.

Furgus Walsh and other Health and Medical correspondents have been good in both interviews and analysis. They are no less interested in advancing their careers but that advancement comes from proper science and explaining and communicating complex science to an uninformed public. 

For Kunessburg et al advancement comes from embarrassing politicians and getting soundbites on the rolling news. 

We needed more if the former and less of the latter.


----------



## matticus (4 Jan 2021)

PK99 said:


> We needed more if the former and less of the latter.


Fair enough.

[I get a bit ... _jaded_, after hearing years of tedious _bickering_-style news coverage. Often I want to know what is going on, but just can't bear to switch to News at Ten, or the Today programme. I'd probably be happier and better informed just listening to Tim Harford's output these past 12 months!]


----------



## mjr (4 Jan 2021)

PK99 said:


> Furgus Walsh and other Health and Medical correspondents have been good in both interviews and analysis. They are no less interested in advancing their careers but that advancement comes from proper science and explaining and communicating complex science to an uninformed public.


Walsh is quite good, but I wish he wouldn't add insults of architecture and other similar unrelated things he knows little about into his reports. It distracts and undermines the messages he's trying to convey.



> For Kunessburg et al advancement comes from embarrassing politicians and getting soundbites on the rolling news.
> 
> We needed more if the former and less of the latter.


Probably, but I also think a few more decent investigative political journalists would be good. One obstacle is that everyone remembers the likes of Paxman for embarrassing politicians (and some on here still idolise him for that) but not for his deconstructions of the justifications behind some brain-fart policies.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> I'd probably be happier and better informed just listening to Tim Harford's output these past 12 months!



I've spent a lot of time trying to understand COVID.

I now find Johnson unwatchable, his detachment from the reality of what's happening completely does my nut. As, to an only slightly lesser extent do the journalists completely failing to point out the obvious. Just for instance


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1345842511600824323

[Kit Yates is a scientist on Independent SAGE]


----------



## PK99 (4 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> Fair enough.
> 
> [I get a bit ... _jaded_, after hearing years of tedious _bickering_-style news coverage. Often I want to know what is going on, but just can't bear to switch to News at Ten, or the Today programme. I'd probably be happier and better informed just listening to Tim Harford's output these past 12 months!]



It's come as a bit of a surprise to find friends of all political persuasions who also avoid Today, PM etc citing what you term the bickering style during the past year.

There is a thirst for information and marked fatigue over the point scoring and bickering.


----------



## rockyroller (4 Jan 2021)

our 25? yr old nephew has it. by txt he told me he is very tired & congested. he has a blood disorder so have my fingers crossed


----------



## AuroraSaab (4 Jan 2021)

On a brighter note, the Mail is reporting that a £1.50 headlice drug might help covid patients and a study suggests those who have recovered have immunity for 6 months.

My OH's 92 year old uncle has just had it and recovered, despite having several underlying issues, including a need for regular blood transfusions, so hopefully your nephew will be ok. I suspect much depends on the size of the viral dose you receive when you catch it.


----------



## pawl (4 Jan 2021)

Just been watching Nicola Sturgeon.Avery precise and to the point Some changes to be placed into law.In due course never entered into her delivery Many changes will be enforced by law.I wonder who could take a lesson from her delivery


----------



## mjr (4 Jan 2021)

AuroraSaab said:


> On a brighter note, the Mail is reporting that a £1.50 headlice drug might help covid patients and a study suggests those who have recovered have immunity for 6 months.


Do they cite a reputable source, or is "X cures covid"/"X causes covid" the next Mail health reporting fad?

Is it the same drug (Ivermectin) that last April provoked an Australian state health minister to warn people not to drink anti-lice shampoo? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...r-coronavirus-drug-treatment-warning/12121578


----------



## Slick (4 Jan 2021)

pawl said:


> Just been watching Nicola Sturgeon.Avery precise and to the point Some changes to be placed into law.In due course never entered into her delivery Many changes will be enforced by law.I wonder who could take a lesson from her delivery


Looks like another lockdown until at least February here. Nightmare


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Do they cite a reputable source, or is "X cures covid"/"X causes covid" the next Mail health reporting fad?
> 
> Is it the same drug (Ivermectin) that last April provoked an Australian state health minister to warn people not to drink anti-lice shampoo? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...r-coronavirus-drug-treatment-warning/12121578



It's ivermectin.

Some promise, but nothing definitive. 

Not relevant to current issues at all.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (4 Jan 2021)

Tune in at 8pm tonight for more rules that idiots can ignore (BJ announcement):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55534999


----------



## fossyant (4 Jan 2021)

Boris set to address the Nation at 8pm. Lockdown and schools closing ?


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (4 Jan 2021)

Clap for carers cancelled. Replaced by public executions of rule breakers live at 5 on Fridays, one from each council area.


----------



## matticus (4 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Clap for carers cancelled. Replaced by public executions of rule breakers live at 5 on Fridays, one from each council area.


Like it.

How about something positive too? A Golden Travel Ticket Lottery - the winner gets a free pass for a single (return) trip to any part of the UK, whatever the Tiers. (or just visits a chocolate factory anywhere in the country)


----------



## Electric_Andy (4 Jan 2021)

I'm not sure about other primary schools in England, but my son's isn't starting back until tomorrow. I think it highly likely that schools will close again, and if they do then I hope it happens before they go back. Otherwsie, if there are days of dithering, kids will go back to school for a week, possibly picking up/spreading Covid, then will be locked down with their adult carers until Easter. it only makes sense if schools close tonight I think. But I also feel for businesses if there is another lockdown..again. But hopefully this one will be the last one, if the jabs can be administered quickly until/during Easter to the vulnerable and then the masses


----------



## mjr (4 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Tune in at 8pm tonight for more rules that idiots can ignore (BJ announcement):
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55534999


I'd best get the pub takeaway early then, before he possibly announces their full closure from Wednesday and provokes another last-chance crush tonight/tomorrow. 

Question for those of you who watch iSAGE and the like more closely than me: is there recent public analysis of what scenarios now contribute how much to infection rates?


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (4 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Tune in at 8pm tonight for more rules that idiots can ignore (BJ announcement):
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55534999



He'll probably rock up late as usual, then announce something that should have already happened will begin in a day or two.


----------



## BoldonLad (4 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> I'd best get the pub takeaway early then, before he possibly announces their full closure from Wednesday and provokes another last-chance crush tonight/tomorrow.
> 
> Question for those of you who watch iSAGE and the like more closely than me: is there recent public analysis of* what scenarios now contribute how much to infection rates?*



Personally, have not come across a definitive list, but, Hospital acquired (Covid) infections are, I believe, approximately 20%, not sure what the figures are for Cycling along the road, visiting park, visiting place of worship, visiting supermarket, visiting pub, ...etc


----------



## Beebo (4 Jan 2021)

This thread started on 23rd January 2020. 
Almost 12 months later we appear to have learned nothing. 
Australia and NZ have faired far better than us, how have we wasted a whole year. 
My worry is that public opinion will not stomach much more.


----------



## mjr (4 Jan 2021)

Electric_Andy said:


> But I also feel for businesses if there is another lockdown..again. But hopefully this one will be the last one, if the jabs can be administered quickly until/during Easter to the vulnerable and then the masses


I think that is unlikely: as I understand it, the target is 1m/week which with 70% uptake and 12 week spacing means (I think) 15 more weeks to finish the most vulnerable and 58 weeks to do the masses. 15 weeks puts us at 19th April. Easter is 4th April.

Currently they seem to be vaccinating about 350k/week, which would mean 24 weeks to finish the most vulnerable (the 12 week gap dominates) but over 2½ years to do the masses. 

Let's hope that tonight's announcement includes some revolutionary improvement to vaccination!


----------



## AuroraSaab (4 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Do they cite a reputable source, or is "X cures covid"/"X causes covid" the next Mail health reporting fad?
> 
> Is it the same drug (Ivermectin) that last April provoked an Australian state health minister to warn people not to drink anti-lice shampoo? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...r-coronavirus-drug-treatment-warning/12121578



It's this study on reinvention rates. 
https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(20)30781-7/fulltext#.X_JOJTXYnCs.twitter

And yes, the drug was Ivermectin. Just because it is in the Mail doesn't automatically mean it's nonsense. I guess my point is that continuing research is finding positive avenues of treatment for covid, and immunity after infection, if only for a period, is promising news.


----------



## DaveReading (4 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Currently they seem to be vaccinating about 350k/week, which would mean 24 weeks to finish the most vulnerable (the 12 week gap dominates) but over 2½ years to do the masses.



By which time a proportion of those initially vaccinated will be dead after their immunity has worn off ...


----------



## Adam4868 (4 Jan 2021)

No need to tune in...he has his messengers.

View: https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1346110314224340993?s=19


----------



## kingrollo (4 Jan 2021)

Beebo said:


> This thread started on 23rd January 2020.
> Almost 12 months later we appear to have learned nothing.
> Australia and NZ have faired far better than us, how have we wasted a whole year.
> My worry is that public opinion will not stomach much more.


Get Brexit done and a few articles about dinghy's crossing the channel and the voters will be back on board.


----------



## pawl (4 Jan 2021)

Adam4868 said:


> No need to tune in...he has his messengers.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1346110314224340993?s=19







Well that’s fifteen minutes of my life I won’t get back 

It has taken me longer to read Sturgeons comprehensive details of Scotland’ than it did for Boris to tell England his plans It makes me wonder if he lives in this world or la la land.


----------



## fossyant (4 Jan 2021)

No mention of University


----------



## classic33 (4 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Clap for carers cancelled. Replaced by public executions of rule breakers live at 5 on Fridays, one from each council area.


We've this!


----------



## Rocky (4 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> No mention of University


The FT has this:

_University students will be told not to return to their colleges until the middle of next month at the earliest, while GCSE and A-level exams this summer are expected to be cancelled._

Sorry behind paywall: _https://www.ft.com/content/016f2df7-aaa7-447b-9fc5-339f3683cfb8_


----------



## pawl (4 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> No mention of University




Just seen a reporter University’s are included except for courses that need face to face tutorial Would have thought they are more a source of infection.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Jan 2021)

Whatever happened to all the testing in Liverpool ? Did that work/flop/not happen ?


----------



## macp (4 Jan 2021)

pawl said:


> Just seen a reporter University’s are included except for courses that need face to face tutorial Would have thought they are more a source of infection.


Thanks for that have daughter @ uni


----------



## mjr (4 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Whatever happened to all the testing in Liverpool ? Did that work/flop/not happen ?


Reply hazy. Ask again later. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4916


----------



## midlife (4 Jan 2021)

There's a 22 page pdf about the new lockdown restrictions on the gov.uk/ coronavirus Web page just released....


----------



## Adam4868 (4 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Whatever happened to all the testing in Liverpool ? Did that work/flop/not happen ?


Might of slowed it down for a while.But I'm pretty sure it's crap again.

View: https://twitter.com/cjmckeon/status/1346131906996408321?s=19


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> There's a 22 page pdf about the new lockdown restrictions on the gov.uk/ coronavirus Web page just released....


There's a link to it on this 1 page outline.... https://www.gov.uk/guidance/nationa...ty-taxon=774cee22-d896-44c1-a611-e3109cce8eae


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (4 Jan 2021)

classic33 said:


> We've this!
> View attachment 567288


Children's playparks in Engand are far more exciting than ours


----------



## classic33 (4 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Children's playparks in Engand are far more exciting than ours


You've "The Maiden", which is a portable copy of it.


----------



## fossyant (4 Jan 2021)

My two Faculties will be back, but the rest won't


----------



## Adam4868 (4 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> There's a link to it on this 1 page outline.... https://www.gov.uk/guidance/nationa...ty-taxon=774cee22-d896-44c1-a611-e3109cce8eae


That's dry January out the window for me.


----------



## Rocky (4 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> My two Faculties will be back, but the rest won't


Because of the need for face to face teaching?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 Jan 2021)

Adam4868 said:


> That's dry January out the window for me.


I see Honest Brew have just brought out a 0.5% New Start. I'm trying to be positive here!


----------



## itboffin (4 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I see Honest Brew have just brought out a 0.5% New Start. I'm trying to be positive here!



why bother doesn’t OJ have similar levels? Maybe a bit less


----------



## Adam4868 (4 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I see Honest Brew have just brought out a 0.5% New Start. I'm trying to be positive here!


To be honest I was just looking at the bottle of wine we have and thinking 13,5%....is that it!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> My two Faculties will be back, but the rest won't



Lost my faculties ages ago.

What's the status of marbles this lockdown?


----------



## fossyant (4 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> Because of the need for face to face teaching?



Yep, Teacher Training, Physio, Nursing, Social Work. Going to be odd though as Psychology won't be back and thats a third of the Faculty.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (4 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Lost my faculties ages ago.
> 
> What's the status of marbles this lockdown?


Your marble mustn't come within 2 metres of any other.


----------



## fossyant (4 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Your marble mustn't come within 2 metres of any other.



His marble must stay at home.


----------



## mjr (4 Jan 2021)

Teachers livid about yet another night-before change. Why did Peston and others know hours before it was announced? I do hope this is not what was going on:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1346115257484398592


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Your marble mustn't come within 2 metres of any other.



Shìt! I'll never find them that far away


----------



## mjr (4 Jan 2021)

Don't mention the stupid Christmas bubble idea. Blame it all on the new variants. No one could have predicted the post-Christmas surge...


Low Gear Guy said:


> The current plan seems to be a four week lockdown to 'save Christmas '. If Christmas involves the whole family including students and older people sitting inside for the whole day, is this likely to cause a third peak of cases in mid January?





marinyork said:


> Without vaccines making a massive dent the second wave will likely go into spring/summer.


----------



## Julia9054 (4 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Teachers livid


And parents too. Many primary schools went back today. One day in school to pass on everything from all those Christmas bubbles and then off for 6 weeks. What the hell was the point?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (4 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Teachers livid about yet another night-before change. Why did Peston and others know hours before it was announced? I do hope this is not what was going on:
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1346115257484398592




I thought he said in the announcement that the four CMO's only advised today that we should enter full lockdown.


----------



## Unkraut (5 Jan 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> Many primary schools went back today.


Enormous controversy over schools going back here. The lockdown will almost certainly be extended by two weeks or to the end of the month, but there is wrangling in different parts of the country as to whether schools should go back, and whether this should be age related, and whether classroom teaching should be split with one half in the morning and one half in the afternoon. Parents are unhappy too.

Psychologists are reporting too many pupils are getting used to not being at school, and having difficulty coping when they do go back.

Will become clear later today (Tuesday) after central and regional governments have had their latest conference to review the situation. I will be surprised if they can still maintain a one size fits all policy.


----------



## Accy cyclist (5 Jan 2021)




----------



## midlife (5 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I thought he said in the announcement that the four CMO's only advised today that we should enter full lockdown.



I think that was about the Covid alert level and not lockdown?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Jan 2021)

It looks like I'm 15,000,000th in the queue.


----------



## Mo1959 (5 Jan 2021)

A Facebook update from my practice says they vaccinated their first batch of over 80’s yesterday. It’s a start.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (5 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> I think that was about the Covid alert level and not lockdown?



Yes, you are correct. My mistake. Apologies.

Same outcome though - once the CMO's advised to shift the threat level to the highest level then the decision was made to lockdown and the schools closed down as part of that process. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55540679


----------



## SpokeyDokey (5 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> View attachment 567371
> 
> It looks like I'm 15,000,000th in the queue.



Have you got a link to that please?

I'd like to share it with someone who is not on this forum.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Have you got a link to that please?
> 
> I'd like to share it with someone who is not on this forum.


It appeared on the Guardian's live coronavirus feed earlier. EDIT: at 10:02. It linked to here: 
View: https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1338422079096500226?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338422079096500226%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2021%2Fjan%2F05%2Fcovid-uk-coronavirus-live-news-updates-lockdown-boris-johnson


----------



## albal (5 Jan 2021)

This is a wartime situation. Vaccines should be rolled out 24/7. Urgent is an understatement.


----------



## cookiemonster (5 Jan 2021)

Schools here are to remain shut until after Chinese New Year in mid-Feb. Although many senior teachers are saying that it may be Easter before we see the kids in the flesh even for half days, which was the situation before early December.


----------



## cookiemonster (5 Jan 2021)

albal said:


> This is a wartime situation. Vaccines should be rolled out 24/7. Urgent is an understatement.



Vaccinations start here in HK in Feb and we can choose what vaccine we can have.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (5 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It appeared on the Guardian's live coronavirus feed earlier. EDIT: at 10:02. It linked to here:
> View: https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1338422079096500226?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338422079096500226%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2021%2Fjan%2F05%2Fcovid-uk-coronavirus-live-news-updates-lockdown-boris-johnson




Many thanks.


----------



## mjr (5 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> View attachment 567371
> 
> It looks like I'm 15,000,000th in the queue.


It would be interesting to have one of those that also included QALY (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) reductions saved but I suspect we don't have good estimates of the effects of so-called long covid yet. After all, don't we care about saving people from living in years of agony too?

(edited to add "reductions" in case that was the source of the confusion below)


----------



## BoldonLad (5 Jan 2021)

Adam4868 said:


> That's dry January out the window for me.



Every cloud....


----------



## BoldonLad (5 Jan 2021)

albal said:


> This is a wartime situation. Vaccines should be rolled out 24/7. Urgent is an understatement.



Exactly.

I find it laughable (if it were not so serious), that after almost 10 months, still, data on infections, deaths, hospital admissions are "disrupted" by such unforeseeable events as weekends and public holidays.

Additionally, why aren't the statistics for numbers vaccinated per day and in total, being published daily, along with the daily infections, deaths, hospital admission figures?


----------



## vickster (5 Jan 2021)

albal said:


> This is a wartime situation. Vaccines should be rolled out 24/7. Urgent is an understatement.


The manufacturers do need time to produce, QC and distribute first though


----------



## classic33 (5 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> It would be interesting to have one of those that also included QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) saved but I suspect we don't have good estimates of the effects of so-called long covid yet. After all, don't we care about saving people from living in years of agony too?


That's an insult to every patient facing member of the NHS.
This situation isn't new in the respect of quality of life due to a condition, and they do care about quality of life, with any condition.


----------



## mjr (5 Jan 2021)

classic33 said:


> That's an insult to every patient facing member of the NHS.


How on Earth do you misinterpret it to arrive at that conclusion?



> This situation isn't new in the respect of quality of life due to a condition, and they do care about quality of life, with any condition.


How can long covid not be new?


----------



## BoldonLad (5 Jan 2021)

vickster said:


> The manufacturers do need time to produce, QC and distribute first though



After assistance from my Senior Nurse Practitioner daughter, did eventually find some vaccination figures on PHE website Just under 1million done, first dose, according to that.


----------



## mjr (5 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> After assistance from my Senior Nurse Practitioner daughter, did eventually find some vaccination figures on PHE website


"Data are reported weekly on Thursdays, with data up to and including the previous Sunday."

So not at all a priority. You will only see how many were vaccinated yesterday in 9 days' time.


----------



## PK99 (5 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> "Data are reported weekly on Thursdays, with data up to and including the previous Sunday."
> 
> So not at all a priority. You will only see how many were vaccinated yesterday in 9 days' time.



So what?

Infection/hospitalization/death rates are correctly a priority as they communicate to the public the reality of the spread of infection.

Why any daily urgency on reporting vaccination numbers?


----------



## BoldonLad (5 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> "Data are reported weekly on Thursdays, with data up to and including the previous Sunday."
> 
> So not at all a priority. You will only see how many were vaccinated yesterday in 9 days' time.



Agreed, I didn't say it was timely, or even accurate, certainly they were not easy to find!

IMHO, the figures should be included each day on BBC News etc, along with the daily doom and gloom infection, and deaths numbers, beloved of Laura Coronaberg, and, Robert Pestilence. Perhaps it would be be good for people's mental health, particularly those isolated and living alone (of whom, I know several).


----------



## the snail (5 Jan 2021)

albal said:


> This is a wartime situation. Vaccines should be rolled out 24/7. Urgent is an understatement.


I suspect vaccine supply will be the limiting factor rather than appointment slots. I can't see many people wanting to turn up at their surgery at 3am either.


----------



## mjr (5 Jan 2021)

PK99 said:


> So what?


So that's what @BoldonLad was looking for in https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6259479

Go argue with that post, not mine. I was mainly pointing out it was not quite what was sought. I don't much care about how often they're published, as I'm millions back in the queue and staying apart for the foreseeable.


----------



## mjr (5 Jan 2021)

the snail said:


> I suspect vaccine supply will be the limiting factor rather than appointment slots. I can't see many people wanting to turn up at their surgery at 3am either.


All the better for me, then! At last I'd get some benefit of past medication having messed up my sleeping!


----------



## BoldonLad (5 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> So that's what @BoldonLad was looking for in https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6259479
> 
> Go argue with that post, not mine. I don't much care about how often they're published, as I'm millions back in the queue and staying apart for the foreseeable.



Indeed it was. 

My guess is we are about 10million down the queue (two 73 year olds, one with Heart Condition, one Cancer survivor and TIA history).

I just like to see some facts (not an insignificant request, in present circumstances). We obviously have a different view on what "arguing with" is.


----------



## johnblack (5 Jan 2021)

the snail said:


> I suspect vaccine supply will be the limiting factor rather than appointment slots. I can't see many people wanting to turn up at their surgery at 3am either.


I think there would be absolutely loads of people that would be happy to go at anytime of day


----------



## mjr (5 Jan 2021)

Two interesting developments in Belgium (not yet suffering a third wave):
1. covid controllers going into workplaces with the power to order them to allow more teleworking and to fine them (up to €48'000) or close them if they do not comply; (some info in French at https://www.rtbf.be/info/societe/de...uelles-sont-les-regles-en-vigueur?id=10666283 )
2. bus companies given the power to fine passengers not wearing masks correctly (including nose-peepers). Enforcement on trains and metro is still by the transport police.

Also, they say they've only found four of the Kent variant so far, all near the Dutch border.


----------



## Edwardoka (5 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Two interesting developments in Belgium (not yet suffering a third wave):
> 1. covid controllers going into workplaces with the power to order them to allow more teleworking and to fine them (up to €48'000) or close them if they do not comply; (some info in French at https://www.rtbf.be/info/societe/de...uelles-sont-les-regles-en-vigueur?id=10666283 )
> 2. bus companies given the power to fine passengers not wearing masks correctly (including nose-peepers). Enforcement on trains and metro is still by the transport police.
> 
> Also, they say they've only found four of the Kent variant so far, all near the Dutch border.


Nice to see our neighbours doing enforcement. None of that here, of course. We're all too terribly polite.

The existence of nose peepers enrages me. It's been over a year since this virus first appeared, they have literally no excuse.


----------



## matticus (5 Jan 2021)

Are any other major 1st world nations having an Unhappy New Year wave? (don't bother mentioing the US - they're in a different world!)
(appreciate that "waves" are quite hard to define - soz ... )


----------



## vickster (5 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> Are any other major 1st world nations having an Unhappy New Year wave? (don't bother mentioing the US - they're in a different world!)
> (appreciate that "waves" are quite hard to define - soz ... )


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


----------



## mjr (5 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> Are any other major 1st world nations having an Unhappy New Year wave? (don't bother mentioing the US - they're in a different world!)
> (appreciate that "waves" are quite hard to define - soz ... )


Depends what is major. I posted the "big five" western European graph and a "weaker lockdowns" graph a couple of days ago, maybe here or in the vaccine thread. None were worse than us.

Looking at the FT's all countries chart, Slovenia, Czechia and Slovakia are arguably having a big third wave now. Lithuania is also looking high but this seems like their second.


----------



## MrGrumpy (6 Jan 2021)

“Conspiracy mode on “ was listening to 5 Live this morning driving into work, a guy getting interviewed , data analyst type. Anyway he was going on about how Flu was down this year due to restrictions in place. He didn’t say zero but it was close to minimal. So what’s going wrong here with Covid then ?? Maybe we got the wrong end of the stick ! All a bit strange really ? Restrictions working for Flu but not COVID


----------



## DaveReading (6 Jan 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> “Conspiracy mode on “ was listening to 5 Live this morning driving into work, a guy getting interviewed , data analyst type. Anyway he was going on about how Flu was down this year due to restrictions in place. He didn’t say zero but it was close to minimal. So what’s going wrong here with Covid then ?? Maybe we got the wrong end of the stick ! All a bit strange really ? Restrictions working for Flu but not COVID



Flu infections may not be down by as much as you think.

Don't forget that anyone killed by flu who has had a positive Covid test in the previous 28 days gets classed as a Covid death, not a flu one.


----------



## MrGrumpy (6 Jan 2021)

It still raises more questions than it answers!!


----------



## Julia9054 (6 Jan 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> It still raises more questions than it answers!!


Covid19 is more infectious with an R0 of close to 3 (some estimates put it higher). Flu has an R0 of around 1.3 depending on the strain. So infection control measures that slow covid19 may almost stop flu.
Covid19 is infectious before symptoms for roughly twice as long as flu.
In addition, more people than usual have been vaccinated against flu this year.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> View attachment 567371
> 
> It looks like I'm 15,000,000th in the queue.



I don't think it will be that linear. I think for example if you have a GP apt and are in one of the top 4 groups - they might just jab you there and then.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jan 2021)

albal said:


> This is a wartime situation. Vaccines should be rolled out 24/7. Urgent is an understatement.



The GPs won't like that - they only work 11-3 !!!

There are other issues as well - a world shortage of vials for one.


----------



## vickster (6 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I don't think it will be that linear. I think for example if you have a GP apt and are in one of the top 4 groups - they might just jab you there and then.


Doubtful. According to my parents practice website, the vaccinations are being given at Epsom Racecourse (couple of miles away), not at the practice. I assume that’ll be the same with AZ / Oxford vaccine


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jan 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> Covid19 is more infectious with an R0 of close to 3 (some estimates put it higher). Flu has an R0 of around 1.3 depending on the strain. So infection control measures that slow covid19 may almost stop flu.
> Covid19 is infectious before symptoms for roughly twice as long as flu.
> In addition, more people than usual have been vaccinated against flu this year.



Plus fLu numbers get pretty low once we get to spring. We never truly got on top of covid numbers.


----------



## Rocky (6 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> The GPs won't like that - they only work 11-3 !!!
> 
> There are other issues as well - a world shortage of vials for one.


My friend who is a GP has been regularly working till 1.00am just to keep up with the paperwork. It’s a bit of a long day considering she sees her first patient at 8.00am.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jan 2021)

vickster said:


> Doubtful. According to my parents practice website, the vaccinations are being given at Epsom Racecourse (couple of miles away), not at the practice. I assume that’ll be the same with AZ / Oxford vaccine




Well I hope so. The less the GPs at my practice are involved the better.!!! - I'm hoping the hospital where I work does mine.


----------



## vickster (6 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Well I hope so. The less the GPs at my practice are involved the better.!!! - I'm hoping the hospital where I work does mine.


Have you ever considered just changing practice?  Aren’t you in a well populated area with multiple surgeries?


----------



## BoldonLad (6 Jan 2021)

vickster said:


> Doubtful. According to my parents practice website, the vaccinations are being given at Epsom Racecourse (couple of miles away), not at the practice. I assume that’ll be the same with AZ / Oxford vaccine


Yes, it is similar in our area. Not a race course, but, using ex-Walkin centres. I think it may be because they need space to keep people in a holding area, after the jab, for 5-10 minutes. Just heard on news the are going to enlist pharmacies from next week.


----------



## vickster (6 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> Yes, it is similar in our area. Not a race course, but, using ex-Walkin centres. I think it may be because they need space to keep people in a holding area, after the jab, for 5-10 minutes. Just heard on news the are going to enlist pharmacies from next week.


Indeed. the racecourse buildings are massive and at present, completely unused!


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jan 2021)

vickster said:


> Have you ever considered just changing practice?  Aren’t you in a well populated area with multiple surgeries?



Yes once all this is over - I probably will.


----------



## MrGrumpy (6 Jan 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> Covid19 is more infectious with an R0 of close to 3 (some estimates put it higher). Flu has an R0 of around 1.3 depending on the strain. So infection control measures that slow covid19 may almost stop flu.
> Covid19 is infectious before symptoms for roughly twice as long as flu.
> In addition, more people than usual have been vaccinated against flu this year.


Thanks that makes sense !!


----------



## mjr (6 Jan 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Flu infections may not be down by as much as you think.
> 
> Don't forget that anyone killed by flu who has had a positive Covid test in the previous 28 days gets classed as a Covid death, not a flu one.


Only on the rough-and-ready daily headline counts, not on the death register counts, isn't it?


----------



## Johnno260 (6 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> My friend who is a GP has been regularly working till 1.00am just to keep up with the paperwork. It’s a bit of a long day considering she sees her first patient at 8.00am.



Yet I'm sure health workers get a fat nothing for a pay increase while the MP's get 10%+


----------



## Rezillo (6 Jan 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Flu infections may not be down by as much as you think.
> 
> Don't forget that anyone killed by flu who has had a positive Covid test in the previous 28 days gets classed as a Covid death, not a flu one.



See this for analysis of figures when Covid-19, flu and pneumonia deaths between January and August last year were looked at in terms of the condition being the underlying cause of death, not just mentioned on the death certificate.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020

A brief extract

Of all death occurrences between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with 13,619 deaths due to pneumonia and 394 deaths due to influenza. 

Influenza and pneumonia was mentioned on more death certificates than COVID-19, however COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in over three times as many deaths between January and August 2020.


----------



## cougie uk (6 Jan 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> “Conspiracy mode on “ was listening to 5 Live this morning driving into work, a guy getting interviewed , data analyst type. Anyway he was going on about how Flu was down this year due to restrictions in place. He didn’t say zero but it was close to minimal. So what’s going wrong here with Covid then ?? Maybe we got the wrong end of the stick ! All a bit strange really ? Restrictions working for Flu but not COVID



Seriously ?

Everyone over 50 has been offered the flu vaccine. That and the social distancing/masks/precautions surely explains the low flu rate.


----------



## cougie uk (6 Jan 2021)

johnblack said:


> I think there would be absolutely loads of people that would be happy to go at anytime of day


You'd think that but the local surgery had 16 people not coming for their morning appointments so they had to ring further down the list and call people in. Which is nice as my relatives got their jabs earlier than they thought.


----------



## vickster (6 Jan 2021)

cougie uk said:


> You'd think that but the local surgery had 16 people not coming for their morning appointments so they had to ring further down the list and call people in. Which is nice as my relatives got their jabs earlier than they thought.


There are bound to be empty slots as uptake won’t be 100.% and also there’ll be elderly folk unable to attend (on that day)


----------



## Smokin Joe (6 Jan 2021)

"Fark off and stick your Olympics, nobhead", would be my answer to this clown -

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/...mpics-can-go-ahead-says-games-official-487385


----------



## classic33 (6 Jan 2021)

cougie uk said:


> Seriously ?
> 
> Everyone over 50 has been offered the flu vaccine. That and the social distancing/masks/precautions surely explains the low flu rate.


There's said to have been an increase in the number of people actually having the flu jab last year. May have played some part in the figures being lower.


----------



## bitsandbobs (6 Jan 2021)

Smokin Joe said:


> "Fark off and stick your Olympics, nobhead", would be my answer to this clown -
> 
> https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/...mpics-can-go-ahead-says-games-official-487385



Why a Spanish athlete in the picture I wonder? The Spanish have their own olympics issues with an outside chance they might not be allowed to compete depending on the outcome of their biological passport courtcase pantomime.


----------



## matticus (6 Jan 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> *“Conspiracy mode on “* was listening to 5 Live this morning driving into work, a guy getting interviewed , data analyst type. Anyway he was going on about how Flu was down this year due to restrictions in place. He didn’t say zero but it was close to minimal. So what’s going wrong here with Covid then ?? Maybe we got the wrong end of the stick ! All a bit strange really ? Restrictions working for Flu but not COVID


Get in the sea pal!

Load of tosh, try ringing 5Live!


----------



## PK99 (6 Jan 2021)

vickster said:


> Doubtful. According to my parents practice website, the vaccinations are being given at Epsom Racecourse (couple of miles away), not at the practice. I assume that’ll be the same with AZ / Oxford vaccine



I understand that the Nelson Health Centre is opening as a local vaccination hub next week


----------



## vickster (6 Jan 2021)

PK99 said:


> I understand that the Nelson Health Centre is opening as a local vaccination hub next week


A friend of mine is marshalling at a Twickenham practice tomorrow which has become a site too.
Probably only works with big buildings...my parents practice is small (essentially a converted house)


----------



## vickster (6 Jan 2021)

Indeed, Epsom Downs has been named as one of seven mass vaccination centres

Robertson House, Stevenage
Excel Centre (Nightingale), London
Centre for Life, Newcastle
Etihad Tennis and Football Centre, Manchester
Epsom Downs racecourse, Surrey
Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
Millennium Point, Birmingham

the dad of a friend of mine is being jabbed at Adams Park on Friday (Wycombe Wanderers ground)


----------



## midlife (6 Jan 2021)

BBC reports over 1000 deaths today. If memory serves there were 22 consecutive days over 1000 in the first lockdown. 

Our local rate now over 1000 per 100,000.

Wonder if we will return to the even tighter lockdown 1 regime ?


----------



## Wobblers (6 Jan 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Flu infections may not be down by as much as you think.
> 
> Don't forget that anyone killed by flu who has had a positive Covid test in the previous 28 days gets classed as a Covid death, not a flu one.



Except that Australia, which never had such high CV19 infection rates and thus far, far fewer deaths also saw a significant fall in flu _infections_ (n.b. not just deaths!) during their winter flu season. In fact they effectively didn't have a winter flu season. Social distancing, avoiding crowds, wearing masks, all seem to reduce the spread of respiratory diseases.


----------



## mjr (6 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> .
> Wonder if we will return to the even tighter lockdown 1 regime ?


Tighter in some ways. Not in others. It disappoints me that no useless restrictions have been discarded and seemingly no useful measures from other countries adopted.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> BBC reports over 1000 deaths today. If memory serves there were 22 consecutive days over 1000 in the first lockdown.
> 
> Our local rate now over 1000 per 100,000.
> 
> Wonder if we will return to the even tighter lockdown 1 regime ?


The Guardian says that there were a total of 9 days that the numbers exceeded 1,000. https://www.theguardian.com/politic...n-parliament-vote-new-lockdown-latest-updates at 16:22


----------



## MrGrumpy (6 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> Get in the sea pal!
> 
> Load of tosh, try ringing 5Live!


Read Julia’s post further up !


----------



## PK99 (6 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> BBC reports over 1000 deaths today. * If memory serves there were 22 consecutive days over 1000 in the first lockdown. *
> 
> Our local rate now over 1000 per 100,000.
> 
> Wonder if we will return to the even tighter lockdown 1 regime ?


----------



## Yellow Fang (6 Jan 2021)

cougie uk said:


> Seriously ?
> 
> Everyone over 50 has been offered the flu vaccine. That and the social distancing/masks/precautions surely explains the low flu rate.



I haven't been offered one.


----------



## MrGrumpy (6 Jan 2021)

cougie uk said:


> Seriously ?
> 
> Everyone over 50 has been offered the flu vaccine. That and the social distancing/masks/precautions surely explains the low flu rate.


Yes seriously I was just asking the question based on what I had heard on the radio , but Julia’s post further up explained a bit more about some differences.
Btw I could have got the flu vaccine through work , no chance of that though as the roll out in my area was shocking to say the least . I also thought it best to go to vulnerable folk rather than me .


----------



## vickster (6 Jan 2021)

Yellow Fang said:


> I haven't been offered one.


Call your surgery or pharmacy
Or book online eg Boots


----------



## Rezillo (6 Jan 2021)

Our rural practice took over the car park of a local agricultural college for a day in December and offered a over-50s drive-though flu jab service. It was all very well-organised and marshalled; they were treating it as practice for covid vaccination. I wasn't contacted directly but they swamped local media, facebook etc. so there was no escaping it. As it turned out, I would have been texted and emailed had it not been years since I updated my details with the surgery.


----------



## Johnno260 (6 Jan 2021)

Someone mentioned flu rates being down, I have seen nothing on noro virus either, so the distancing etc must be having an impact.

I’m just fed up with anti insert latest fad morons, family member of mine has been told to get lost after comparing mask users to nazis, he obliterated the red line.


----------



## gbb (6 Jan 2021)

gbb said:


> ...........
> My weekly visit to a supermarket tonight...they're selling fireworks. FFS, a non socially distanced queue to by bl**dy fireworks.
> Alcohol aisles were chocker.
> Queues at the tills, social distancing is collapsing, it's almost non existent now.
> ...


And tonight, I shopped at Sainsburys. What a difference, quiet, orderly, tidy. A pleasure to shop in there.
Asda has a good range and more choice....but a significant section of its clientele is going downhill. It's a free for all in there.
For the bit extra, I'll be frequenting JS a bit more often.


----------



## midlife (6 Jan 2021)

Yellow Fang said:


> I haven't been offered one.



By coincidence my free flu jab offer came through the post today (over 50)..Had one at work ages ago though.


----------



## midlife (6 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The Guardian says that there were a total of 9 days that the numbers exceeded 1,000. https://www.theguardian.com/politic...n-parliament-vote-new-lockdown-latest-updates at 16:22



Thanks, faulty memory. Mind you I think there are going to be more than 9 days this time around


----------



## Chromatic (6 Jan 2021)

Yellow Fang said:


> I haven't been offered one.



Nor have I.


----------



## DaveReading (6 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> Thanks, faulty memory. Mind you I think there are going to be more than 9 days this time around



There is now reckoned to be a doubling of daily infections/hospitalisations/deaths every 15-20 days.

By the end of this month having "only" 1,000 deaths per day will be a distant memory.


----------



## delb0y (6 Jan 2021)

Chromatic said:


> Nor have I.



I have :-)


----------



## Chromatic (6 Jan 2021)

delb0y said:


> I have :-)



I'm older than you too, maybe my doctors don't want me to survive.

Have you had it yet?


----------



## delb0y (7 Jan 2021)

Yep, couple of weeks ago. All easy peasy at the new Kingsway Medical centre, where, it turns out, there are no dedicated parking facilities for cyclists. I guess they assume we are all so healthy we won't need to visit the docs.


----------



## oldworld (7 Jan 2021)

Back in March the government went to great effort and equipped a number of new Nightingale hospitals but these were largely unused.

With the new strain of the virus causing the NHS to be busier than ever before and getting close to being overwhelmed isn't it time to open them?

I suspect they don't have the staff to do so and the whole Nightingale hospital building was just a PR stunt. 

On the other hand perhaps the government just forgot they'd need extra staff to run them and the existing hospitals.


----------



## MrGrumpy (7 Jan 2021)

You could probably answer yes to all of those statements


----------



## mjr (7 Jan 2021)

The needless harm to public health continues: "The first lockdown led to a reduction in activity even though there was glorious weather last spring. So with a winter lockdown we’ve got almost the perfect storm for a dramatic reduction in physical activity. Alongside that is the impact it will have on people’s physical, mental, emotional and spiritual health. We can’t underplay how damaging this lockdown could be for national health.”

Former Olympian warns of 'perfect storm' of winter lockdown inactivity | Sport | The Guardian – https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...m-over-fitness-in-winter-lockdown-says-expert


----------



## IaninSheffield (7 Jan 2021)

oldworld said:


> I suspect they don't have the staff to do so and the whole Nightingale hospital building was just a PR stunt.
> 
> On the other hand perhaps the government just forgot they'd need extra staff to run them and the existing hospitals.


Perhaps, perhaps not. However, whether the planned increases would have been adequate to cope with current circumstances (not least staffing the Nightingales AND providing the vaccination programme) is far from clear. Layered on top of that is staff absence with Covid or having been required to self-isolate - must be a nightmare for local staff to manage!

Perhaps we can call on colleagues from EU neighbours ... 😢.
Still, at least the nurses pay rise might help with recruitement and retention. Oh.


----------



## kingrollo (7 Jan 2021)

gbb said:


> And tonight, I shopped at Sainsburys. What a difference, quiet, orderly, tidy. A pleasure to shop in there.
> Asda has a good range and more choice....but a significant section of its clientele is going downhill. It's a free for all in there.
> For the bit extra, I'll be frequenting JS a bit more often.



Mrs KR went shopping yesterday and reported the same. The quietest since the lockdowns began in March 2020.


----------



## kingrollo (7 Jan 2021)

IaninSheffield said:


> Perhaps, perhaps not. However, whether the planned increases would have been adequate to cope with current circumstances (not least staffing the Nightingales AND providing the vaccination programme) is far from clear. Layered on top of that is staff absence with Covid or having been required to self-isolate - must be a nightmare for local staff to manage!
> 
> Perhaps we can call on colleagues from EU neighbours ... 😢.
> Still, at least the nurses pay rise might help with recruitement and retention. Oh.



I think the nightingales were an initial response to "We need more beds" - "ok here is in some space with beds in it" TBF i don't think it was a PR stunt - just thinking at 100mph . Since then hospitals have got smarter and redeployed existing space as wards/ITU - but now they seem to be at the limits of that. 

Worrying times.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (7 Jan 2021)

IaninSheffield said:


> Perhaps, perhaps not. However, whether the planned increases would have been adequate to cope with current circumstances (not least staffing the Nightingales AND providing the vaccination programme) is far from clear. Layered on top of that is staff absence with Covid or having been required to self-isolate - must be a nightmare for local staff to manage!
> 
> Perhaps we can call on colleagues from EU neighbours ... 😢.
> Still, at least the nurses pay rise might help with recruitement and retention. Oh.


Purely anecdotal but my sister is a nursing assistant at Ninewells Hospital. They're having staffing problems due to self-isolating requirements but also because the nurses who were how shall we say, a tad "work-shy" before Covid, are now "ripping the piss entirely". Nurses are people too and just as in any field, there are those who will find excuses not to work. As the pressure increases, more will be tempted.


----------



## matticus (7 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Purely anecdotal but my sister is a nursing assistant at Ninewells Hospital. They're having staffing problems due to self-isolating requirements but also because the nurses who were how shall we say, a tad "work-shy" before Covid, are now "ripping the piss entirely". Nurses are people too and just as in any field, there are those who will find excuses not to work. As the pressure increases, more will be tempted.


I've heard mentions of staffing issues in every area (hospitals, post office, trains ... ). Are there are any hard figures in circulation? I'm sure it's a real problem, it might even be a massive real problem :-/


----------



## raleighnut (7 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Purely anecdotal but my sister is a nursing assistant at Ninewells Hospital. They're having staffing problems due to self-isolating requirements but also because the nurses who were how shall we say, a tad "work-shy" before Covid, are now "ripping the piss entirely". Nurses are people too and just as in any field, there are those who will find excuses not to work. As the pressure increases, more will be tempted.


Having had a couple of week long 'stays' in hospital a few years back after major surgery on my leg I would say that many Nurses are lazy, the Nursing Assistants did the majority of the work. They seemed to have the attitude that they were 'in charge' and therefore just supervised.


----------



## fossyant (7 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> I've heard mentions of staffing issues in every area (hospitals, post office, trains ... ). Are there are any hard figures in circulation? I'm sure it's a real problem, it might even be a massive real problem :-/



Even in 'Universities' there are challenges, and the 'work shy' are milking it. We've had a number of 'covid anxiety' sick notes. The NHS will be massively affected by sickness and self isolation though !


----------



## kingrollo (7 Jan 2021)

raleighnut said:


> Having had a couple of week long 'stays' in hospital a few years back after major surgery on my leg I would say that many Nurses are lazy, the Nursing Assistants did the majority of the work. They seemed to have the attitude that they were 'in charge' and therefore just supervised.



I don't think it fair to lump 'Nurses' all into one group. They range from Clinical Nurse Specialist - who can amongst other thing prescribe drugs, run clinics, - to staff nurses and Aux nurses. It might well be that some Nurses role is 'just' to supervise.

Ive done some work in A+E and the head consultant takes responsibility - and manages the floor and says what needs to happen - he role might not to be to run around like a blue ass F - Same with many management positions - you are paid for responsibility (The worry factor !) - rather than workload.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (7 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I don't think it fair to lump 'Nurses' all into one group. They range from Clinical Nurse Specialist - who can amongst other thing prescribe drugs, run clinics, - to staff nurses and Aux nurses. It might well be that some Nurses role is 'just' to supervise.
> 
> Ive done some work in A+E and the head consultant takes responsibility - and manages the floor and says what needs to happen - he role might not to be to run around like a blue ass F - Same with many management positions - you are paid for responsibility (The worry factor !) - rather than workload.


That was something my mother brought up. She was a nurse for 40 years - SEN then District Nurse. The State Enrolled Nurses and State Registered Nurses were given general training and could work in pretty much any area of a hospital (my mum did A&E, Theatre, Psychiatric and a few others) but nurses now seem to be more specialised meaning they've closed wards to make room for Covid but they can't necessarily use the nurses from there as they don't have the relevant training to work in High Dependency wards.

Also anecdotally, it's recognised that ventilators do a lot of damage so they're very much the last resort option now compared to March and they're less likely to transfer patients to High Dependency wards. Better treatment is good but paradoxically causes problems because patients who would have died in March are now living - but taking up a hospital bed for longer.


----------



## raleighnut (7 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I don't think it fair to lump 'Nurses' all into one group. They range from Clinical Nurse Specialist - who can amongst other thing prescribe drugs, run clinics, - to staff nurses and Aux nurses. It might well be that some Nurses role is 'just' to supervise.
> 
> Ive done some work in A+E and the head consultant takes responsibility - and manages the floor and says what needs to happen - he role might not to be to run around like a blue ass F - Same with many management positions - you are paid for responsibility (The worry factor !) - rather than workload.


Let's just say I had some bad experiences in hospital and please note I did not lump all nurses togetherm some are dedicated and work very hard whereas others are useless especially one of the male 'Charge Nurses' (male equivilant of a Sister) whose inaction caused me severe pain, I asked for a dressing to be removed due to irritation and he ignored me and left it on for 8 hours and when the next 'shift' got round to changing it there was severe blistering that took weeks to heal. It was so bad that the nurse who did remove the dressing called the ward Doctor as she was horrified by what she saw underneath (turns out I'm allergic to that particular Adhesive) I think the bloke got a bollocking reprimand for this as the next time he was on duty he was very 'surly' with me.


----------



## pawl (7 Jan 2021)

We had to be careful with Micropore dressing some patients had allergic reactions to that particular dressing


----------



## oldworld (7 Jan 2021)

IaninSheffield said:


> Perhaps, perhaps not. However, whether the planned increases would have been adequate to cope with current circumstances (not least staffing the Nightingales AND providing the vaccination programme) is far from clear. Layered on top of that is staff absence with Covid or having been required to self-isolate - must be a nightmare for local staff to manage!
> 
> Perhaps we can call on colleagues from EU neighbours ... 😢.
> Still, at least the nurses pay rise might help with recruitement and retention. Oh.


Not anymore, the UK has left!
France took patients from Italy and Germany took them from Italy and Spain.


----------



## Ajax Bay (7 Jan 2021)

oldworld said:


> Not anymore, the UK has left!


That was exactly the oblique point @IaninSheffield was sobbing about.
The northern littoral nations are still our neighbours, I think. Does membership of the EU facilitate the transfer of patients from one member to another? By what mechanism?
Perhaps the UK could help our continental neighbours with advice on vaccination authorisation and administration.
Good to get away from off topic NHS nurse-bashing.


----------



## byegad (7 Jan 2021)

pawl said:


> We had to be careful with Micropore dressing some patients had allergic reactions to that particular dressing


I'm allergic to elastoplast in most of its forms. Any application will after as little as an hour remove the entire area of skin under the actual adhesive leaving a suppurating sore. I am not allergic to micropore.


----------



## raleighnut (7 Jan 2021)

pawl said:


> We had to be careful with Micropore dressing some patients had allergic reactions to that particular dressing


This was a large absorbant pad to contain the 'seepage' from an 8 inch long incision* to my thigh so the 'pad' was about a foot long with a band of adhesive around the edge, they hadn't used anything like this when they inserted the first Intramedullary 'Nail'.
If this dressing had been removed or changed when I'd asked the Charge Nurse to do so the blistering would not have been so extensive or traumatic (some of the blisters were enormous) but he ignored my repeated requests to do so. By the time the Nurse on the next shift did remove this dressing she visibly blanched as it came off and fetched the Doctor immediately.

* I'd snapped my Femur into 3 pieces so they'd had to put a fixing in mid way down my leg to fasten the loose piece so of course this had to come out when they had a 2nd attempt at repairing the break by removing the 1st 'Nail' drilling out the bone and putting another bigger pin in. After the initial op I was 'non load bearing' for a month then partial for another 2, once that had been removed I asked how long I'd be 'non load bearing' for with the new one to be told by the Surgeon "You could go jogging if you want to"


----------



## Scoosh (7 Jan 2021)

MOD NOTE:
Can we ease off of the grisly details of our injury experiences and endeavour not to put us all off our evening meals, please ?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (8 Jan 2021)

Football clubs, they get a lot of stick but they do do a lot of good work behind the scenes:

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport...oman-abramovich-nhs-covid-hotel-b1783870.html


----------



## Illaveago (8 Jan 2021)

The government is finally thinking of checking airline passengers for the virus on arrival. Isn't it a bit late when they could have infected all of the other passengers ? Surely they should have been prevented from getting on board ?


----------



## midlife (8 Jan 2021)

In theory everybody on board the plane should go into strict isolation. Anybody with an infection would then be negative after isolation. This requires a very strict policy of isolation which never happened. Also they will now accept lateral flow tests which miss about 50% of positive cases. 

Isolation still applies for all passengers but can be released early if a second test here is negative.


----------



## Illaveago (8 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> In theory everybody on board the plane should go into strict isolation. Anybody with an infection would then be negative after isolation. This requires a very strict policy of isolation which never happened. Also they will now accept lateral flow tests which miss about 50% of positive cases.
> 
> Isolation still applies for all passengers but can be released early if a second test here is negative.


I think they reckon that only 5% isolate.


----------



## DCLane (8 Jan 2021)

Illaveago said:


> I think they reckon that only 5% isolate.



That's been the problem since March: when told to do so very few actually isolate for the full, or even part of, the time period. As such any test-and-trace system becomes worthless. In other countries they've been more compliant, possibly due to harsher penalties.

I do wonder whether the term 'self-isolate' brings meaning that it's a personal choice whether to do so or not, with no compulsion or penalty, has caused more problems than solutions.


----------



## Electric_Andy (8 Jan 2021)

Two women fined for driving 5 miles to walk (BBC link).


----------



## roubaixtuesday (8 Jan 2021)

Electric_Andy said:


> Two women fined for driving 5 miles to walk (BBC link).



Derbyshire police behaved like idiots last time and continue to do so. 

They obviously have too many officers.


----------



## DCLane (8 Jan 2021)

To me that seems completely daft. And a coffee isn't a 'picnic'!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (8 Jan 2021)

DCLane said:


> To me that seems completely daft. And a coffee isn't a 'picnic'!



They were using drones to harass dog walkers last time. Drunk on power IMO, and oblivious to any rational prioritisation of risk.


----------



## vickster (8 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> They obviously have too many officers.


Maybe they need to redeploy some to Accrington and its environs where clearly local plod don’t understand the rules...


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Jan 2021)

Sadiq Khan 7th December -


> Sadiq Khan has warned that Tier 3 would be "catastrophic" for London amid fears the capital could be placed under tougher coronavirus restrictions next week.


 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-london-restrictions-sadiq-khan-b1767632.html

One month later 


> *The spread of Covid in London is "out of control" according to Sadiq Khan, who has declared a "major incident".*


 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55588163


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Sadiq Khan 7th December - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-london-restrictions-sadiq-khan-b1767632.html
> 
> One month later
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55588163


Local number of active cases (Lewisham, Zoe app).
7th December: 1360
7th January: 7676





A lot can happen in a month....


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Local number of active cases (Lewisham, Zoe app).
> 7th December: 1360
> 7th January: 7676
> View attachment 567944
> ...


Do you think arguing against restrictions was a good idea?


> Mr Khan added: "If London was to go into Tier 3 it would be catastrophic to those industries already really crippled under the Covid pandemic, that could mean many shops going bust, many bars, pubs and restaurants going bust.


Harrods - 6th December


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Do you think arguing against restrictions was a good idea?


Did I? At the time, yes. The figures, as seen in the graph above, did not support the change of tier. 

What people got up to during Santa's superspreader events, including Harrods crowds not observing social distancing, was totally indefensible. I was also in favour of a ''circuit breaker'' at half-term because it could have pushed the infection rate back down to September levels.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Did I? At the time, yes. The figures, as seen in the graph above, did not support the change of tier.
> 
> What people got up to during Santa's superspreader events, including Harrods crowds not observing social distancing, was totally indefensible. I was also in favour of a ''circuit breaker'' at half-term because it could have pushed the infection rate back down to September levels.


I disagree in that it was clear what was going to happen - indeed was already happening as the Harrods pictures were showing. People were going to go nuts with Christmas shopping and there were going to be big groups of people mingling over the period. It's like looking at a big pile of twigs and paper saying "there is no fire" then throwing a lit match in. London with it's massive public transport network was always going to be high risk. Khan was arguing in favour of businesses making money rather than considering public health. For him to be wailing and complaining at the inevitable results of what he wanted is a bit rich. 

I'm pretty sure if the government said "black", Khan would be on the radio shouting "white" within minutes.


----------



## rockyroller (8 Jan 2021)

a young lady in our office, 20's I think, caught covid from her fiance. all they will tell me is she's "hurting bad". her fiance has no symptoms what so ever & feels perfectly fine. terrible because she is the loveliest, bubbliest, most positive person in the office


----------



## rockyroller (8 Jan 2021)

over 4,000 Americans died from covid yesterday


----------



## kingrollo (8 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Did I? At the time, yes. The figures, as seen in the graph above, did not support the change of tier.
> 
> What people got up to during Santa's superspreader events, including Harrods crowds not observing social distancing, was totally indefensible. I was also in favour of a ''circuit breaker'' at half-term because it could have pushed the infection rate back down to September levels.



I think it should be called the worse case scenario virus. Because everything you think won't happen....ends up happening.

1300 dead today + 68k new cases .....and everybody said how much more prepared we were for the 2nd wave.


----------



## mjr (8 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Do you think arguing against restrictions was a good idea?


He was arguing for good behaviour to make restrictions unnecessary: "It is really important people follow the rules," Mr Khan told Sky News. "What none of us want to do is undo all the progress made over the last few months. What we can't afford to happen... is people who are shopping not following the rules leading to an increase in this virus spreading."

I note the Independent cut the bit which made clear he was arguing for more financial and practical support, not against necessary restrictions and instead only put "Mr Khan has also urged the government to offer more financial support"

At least you gave the link so less biased readers can see this for themselves.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (8 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I think it should be called the worse case scenario virus. Because everything you think won't happen....ends up happening



I think it should be called the absolutely ****ing predictable virus.

Because it's been predictable, and predicted where we would end up without action, and that's exactly where we are.

Nothing worst case about it.


----------



## kingrollo (8 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think it should be called the absolutely ****ing predictable virus.
> 
> Because it's been predictable, and predicted where we would end up without action, and that's exactly where we are.
> 
> Nothing worst case about it.


True.

But there are articles on the news - forewarning of imminent doom - which never come to much .....this one seems the opposite.

I'm a glass half empty, and I will fall on it and slit my throat man.......even I didn't think it would get this bad.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> He was arguing for good behaviour to make restrictions unnecessary: "It is really important people follow the rules," Mr Khan told Sky News. "What none of us want to do is undo all the progress made over the last few months. What we can't afford to happen... is people who are shopping not following the rules leading to an increase in this virus spreading."
> 
> I note the Independent cut the bit which made clear he was arguing for more financial and practical support, not against necessary restrictions and instead only put "Mr Khan has also urged the government to offer more financial support"
> 
> At least you gave the link so less biased readers can see this for themselves.


I'm not biased - everyone else is


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> I disagree in that it was clear what was going to happen - indeed was already happening as the Harrods pictures were showing. People were going to go nuts with Christmas shopping and there were going to be big groups of people mingling over the period. It's like looking at a big pile of twigs and paper saying "there is no fire" then throwing a lit match in. London with it's massive public transport network was always going to be high risk. Khan was arguing in favour of businesses making money rather than considering public health. For him to be wailing and complaining at the inevitable results of what he wanted is a bit rich.
> 
> I'm pretty sure if the government said "black", Khan would be on the radio shouting "white" within minutes.


I hadn't anticipated the Kent mutation back then and I'd be surprised if you had. 

Also, the move to Tier 3 would not have shut Harrods down so would have made little if any difference. 

The losers in the change from 2 to 3 are principally the hospitality sector, who had had little to do with any explosion in the infection rate because of precautions already taken. (As far as I know. Happy to be corrected though if there has been news that I missed.)

The real match lighter was the government keeping the prospect of an as-normal-as-possible Christmas and promising some kind of bubble-relaxation mode. Together with the blind insistence on keeping schools open after there was growing evidence of the mutation's spread amongst schoolchildren.

On the specifically London issues, the use of public transport has been very low here since mid March. South Wales, with no Harrods and a poorer public transport system, has managed to get to current London level rates of infection before London itself. 

If you want to attack Khan, do it on other questions. The Silvertown tunnel would be a very good place to start.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Jan 2021)

Doesn't take away from the fact that as shoppers packed the streets, Khan was arguing against restrictions which could have helped avoid the emergency situation they're in now.


----------



## mjr (8 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Doesn't take away from the fact that as shoppers packed the streets, Khan was arguing against restrictions which could have helped avoid the emergency situation they're in now.


Kahn was arguing against people behaving in ways like that pictured which would cause the restrictions! 

I'm sure there are probably plenty of things you could attack Kahn over (and the Silvertown tunnel is indeed dodgy) but he has been a long way ahead of Boris on Covid response.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Doesn't take away from the fact that as shoppers packed the streets, Khan was arguing against restrictions which could have helped avoid the emergency situation they're in now.


I thought I'd addressed that part. Moving to Tier 3 would not have shut Harrods. The shoppers would still have packed the streets and they couldn't even go to a pub to wait till the crowds died down. And the current emergency, insofar as hospitals are at snapping point, was fed by other factors. I mentioned what I consider to be three major vectors of spreading infection, and two of them were government policy, the other being B.1.1.1.7. It's not an exhaustive list but it's a start.


----------



## mjr (9 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> But there are articles on the news - forewarning of imminent doom - which never come to much .....this one seems the opposite.
> 
> I'm a glass half empty, and I will fall on it and slit my throat man.......even I didn't think it would get this bad.


A new record death toll exactly two weeks after the "Happy Covid Christmas Day"? Yeah, it was completely impossible to see this one coming(!)

Thing is, a lot of the doom prediction stories provoke action and so the worst is avoided, but Boris clung on to this brain fart long after it was obviously a bad idea, well after other Heads of Government had cancelled or refused similar relaxations.


----------



## DaveReading (9 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> A new record death toll exactly two weeks after the "Happy Covid Christmas Day"? Yeah, it was completely impossible to see this one coming(!)
> 
> Thing is, a lot of the doom prediction stories provoke action and so the worst is avoided, but Boris clung on to this brain fart long after it was obviously a bad idea, well after other Heads of Government had cancelled or refused similar relaxations.



It's a little early for the Christmas Day effect yet, based on the quoted mean of around 18 days between the onset of symptoms (a few days after exposure) and subsequent death.

But it won't come as a surprise to anyone when the death toll continues to rise in the weeks ahead.


----------



## mjr (9 Jan 2021)

DaveReading said:


> It's a little early for the Christmas Day effect yet, based on the quoted mean of around 18 days between the onset of symptoms (a few days after exposure) and subsequent death.
> 
> But it won't come as a surprise to anyone when the death toll continues to rise in the weeks ahead.


Remember that is the mean. This is the start.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (9 Jan 2021)

Calm, devastating indictment of our response throughout, and fears for what will come. 

From Oxford Prof. 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1347821759341473798


----------



## IaninSheffield (9 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Calm, devastating indictment of our response throughout, and fears for what will come.
> 
> From Oxford Prof.
> 
> ...



Perhaps in summary:


----------



## Salty seadog (10 Jan 2021)

Hancock struggling on the Marr show. 
Simply cannot go anywhere near addressing the point about being in a more severe situation than March /April but having much looser restrictions.


----------



## mjr (10 Jan 2021)

Salty seadog said:


> Hancock struggling on the Marr show.
> Simply cannot go anywhere near addressing the point about being in a more severe situation than March /April but having much looser restrictions.


He also blithely says "some people need to go to work" ignoring that it is currently over 80% going to work. Do that many people really need to go in? The difficulty is that it has been left to bosses to decide, not workers.

He also has said every willing adult will be vaccinated by autumn.

I've also decided that anyone referring to"the spirit" of the lockdown has been on the spirits!


----------



## Slick (10 Jan 2021)

Salty seadog said:


> Hancock struggling on the Marr show.
> Simply cannot go anywhere near addressing the point about being in a more severe situation than March /April but having much looser restrictions.


His exit strategy is a belter as well. 

Trying to justify Boris's comments last week is a bit pathetic.


----------



## tom73 (10 Jan 2021)

So here we go again and boy are we well in brown stuff. Yet we have a lockdown with a lock that's more holes than Swiss cheese.
Even going back to the March lockdown conditions won't control the new variant. Daily more within the health service and expects call for more action. We hit grim record after grim record but government say it's too early to change things. How fair do they want to push this? The NHS will go under and the human cost will be off the scale. The vaccine program has now just become the next political numbers game which just will undermine the whole thing. Which we just can't afford.
The only highlight of the 5pm muppet show is Whitty and co ripping them to bits ever thing they say. In such a professional, clear way and dignified way they don't even notice.


----------



## Salty seadog (10 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> He also blithely says "some people need to go to work" ignoring that it is currently over 80% going to work. Do that many people really need to go in? The difficulty is that it has been left to bosses to decide, not workers.
> 
> He also has said every willing adult will be vaccinated by autumn.
> 
> I've also decided that anyone referring to"the spirit" of the lockdown has been on the spirits!



When Marr said that he had just said the exact opposite to the the governments published scientific advice..... He looked astounded shaking his head and mouthing 'no'. 

Even though it had just been read out.


----------



## kingrollo (10 Jan 2021)

Hearing plenty of stats that new variant is 50-70% more transmissible ..

But no reason as to why, ? Does it replicate quicker?, is it more airborne?, Does it spread more easily outdoors ? - does it live longer on surfaces ?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Hearing plenty of stats that new variant is 50-70% more transmissible ..
> 
> But no reason as to why, ? Does it replicate quicker?, is it more airborne?, Does it spread more easily outdoors ? - does it live longer on surfaces ?



Binds more strongly to the receptor on the cell wall that allows the virus entry is my understanding.


----------



## tom73 (10 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Hearing plenty of stats that new variant is 50-70% more transmissible ..
> 
> But no reason as to why, ? Does it replicate quicker?, is it more airborne?, Does it spread more easily outdoors ? - does it live longer on surfaces ?


It's complex basally the part of the virus that it users to attach to the part of your respiratory system it users. The new variant is much better at doing it making it more effective at being past on.


----------



## PK99 (10 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> t it is currently *over 80%* going to work.



Do you have a source for that number?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> It's complex basally the part of the virus that it users to attach to the part of your respiratory system it users. The new variant is much better at doing it making it more effective at being past on.


A Sage guy on the Marr show today also briefly mentioned the possibility that the new variant may be better at suppressing the immune response. I'm no scientist so I have no idea what this might involve, but it was near the start of the programme.


----------



## rockyroller (10 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> every willing adult will be vaccinated by autumn.


what? darn! the news is getting worse!


----------



## rockyroller (10 Jan 2021)

24,000 Americans died due to covid in the last 10 days


----------



## tom73 (10 Jan 2021)

on Marr Hancock said 
“Every time you try to flex the rules, that could be fatal.”
Pot and kettle seeing every time Hancock turn's up for work it is fatal.


----------



## mjr (10 Jan 2021)

PK99 said:


> Do you have a source for that number?


YouGov personal behaviour survey. I may have misremembered or not read the latest, of course.


----------



## mjr (10 Jan 2021)

rockyroller said:


> what? darn! the news is getting worse!


How? Autumn is bang in line with their "million a week" target.


----------



## rockyroller (10 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> How?


I want it now, not a year from now


----------



## RoadRider400 (10 Jan 2021)

rockyroller said:


> 24,000 Americans died due to covid in the last 10 days


Due to covid or with covid?


----------



## mjr (10 Jan 2021)

rockyroller said:


> I want it now, not a year from now


That's not the news getting worse, though. Indeed, some of the date calculators show much later!


----------



## Unkraut (10 Jan 2021)

RoadRider400 said:


> Due to covid or with covid?


My understanding is that very few die _of_ covid. The dosage needs to be very high. The majority die _with_ covid as an addition to existing medical conditions. This is all the more true the older the patient is.

It is also probably true that many of the fatalities are already near the age of normal life expectancy, and many might have died anyway in the fairly near future. In that regard, over a longer period of time it might be there will not be a huge increase in the average death rate over the course of the pandemic.

I've certainly seen this argued, especially by those trying to reduce the seriousness of the pandemic and/or the drastic measures being taken to curtail its spread. Those claiming 'it's like flu'.

I think there are two objections to this.

The first is that curtailing the spread is primarily to prevent healthcare being overwhelmed. If 5% of the UK population need admitting to hospital if infected over say the next year, this would mean over 3 million additional patients to the normal load. Even if you halve the percentage and extend the time as more younger and fitter people are infected who are less likely to need treatment, this is still far too many. The death rate will increase from treatable diseases where operations were postponed.

The second is that just because many of the fatalities are already old and frail this doesn't mean it doesn't matter if they die from it. They are still fully human and deserving of respect, and their deaths will still leave grieving families.

This may or may not be what your question was aiming at, but I have recently seen too many people playing down the seriousness of the situation either in comments sections or in their irresponsible actions using precisely this reasoning.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 Jan 2021)

This morning I find myself trying to get a good grasp of the idea of setting up mass vaccination centres for the over-80s. Are we asking the elderly to break from shielding and massively increase their risk of infection while travelling? As far as I understand it, any immunity won't kick in until a fair while after getting the jab. 

Can someone better qualified explain how the pitfalls can be avoided?


----------



## kingrollo (11 Jan 2021)

Unkraut said:


> My understanding is that very few die _of_ covid. The dosage needs to be very high. The majority die _with_ covid as an addition to existing medical conditions. This is all the more true the older the patient is.
> 
> It is also probably true that many of the fatalities are already near the age of normal life expectancy, and many might have died anyway in the fairly near future. In that regard, over a longer period of time it might be there will not be a huge increase in the average death rate over the course of the pandemic.
> 
> ...



And long Covid - which appears not to discriminate on age.


----------



## kingrollo (11 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> This morning I find myself trying to get a good grasp of the idea of setting up mass vaccination centres for the over-80s. Are we asking the elderly to break from shielding and massively increase their risk of infection while travelling? As far as I understand it, any immunity won't kick in until a fair while after getting the jab.
> 
> Can someone better qualified explain how the pitfalls can be avoided?



The mass testing centres are an option - if they can't get to such centres, they will be offered a jab from the GP or something more local due course.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> The mass testing centres are an option - if they can't get to such centres, they will be offered a jab from the GP or something more local due course.


Thanks for the answer. It will remain to be seen how much longer people will have to wait because they're keeping themselves safe.


----------



## mjr (11 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> This morning I find myself trying to get a good grasp of the idea of setting up mass vaccination centres for the over-80s. Are we asking the elderly to break from shielding and massively increase their risk of infection while travelling? As far as I understand it, any immunity won't kick in until a fair while after getting the jab.
> 
> Can someone better qualified explain how the pitfalls can be avoided?


No.

Is the idea is to restore the priority treatment of cities, with a distracting sop to Stevenage to maybe line them up for an early derestriction trial to silence their anti-lockdown MP?


----------



## fossyant (11 Jan 2021)

Our GP practice was running drive in vaccinations for the elderly this weekend. Still no vaccination for the local care homes, where the risk is highest.

Oh and my brother is fuming. His business partner is off sick with Covid. He half owns a dental practice, and they have now lost half the appointments whilst his partner recovers. Said partner's brother fled London just before Christmas to spend it with his sister , the whole family caught it. 'Oh it wasn't from my brother she said'. My brother hasn't been squeaky clean over Christmas either, as he spend Christmas day with the in-laws and his missus 3 sister's families (five in total).


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> No.
> 
> Is the idea is to restore the priority treatment of cities, with a distracting sop to Stevenage to maybe line them up for an early derestriction trial to silence their anti-lockdown MP?


I had to look up the Stevenage MP to understand that reference!


----------



## mjr (11 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I had to look up the Stevenage MP to understand that reference!


 The other one is McPartlin, but even so, this one must be high on the list of "People we'd like to see put kangaroo balls in their mouth on TV"... Attached or not.


----------



## tom73 (11 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> This morning I find myself trying to get a good grasp of the idea of setting up mass vaccination centres for the over-80s. Are we asking the elderly to break from shielding and massively increase their risk of infection while travelling? As far as I understand it, any immunity won't kick in until a fair while after getting the jab.
> 
> Can someone better qualified explain how the pitfalls can be avoided?



The main problem is the vaccine program is very top down and not bottom up and has stared to get split into bits. 
Up to now the primary care networks with help form Hospitals have been going them. In the same way as every other vaccine program. They know who to invite and when. The letters that have started to go out on mass that's getting all the news coverage inviting you to a mass vaccination centre. Are not from your GP but centrally from NHS England who centrally will be running them. 

So the letter are not very clear on what happens if you can't go to a centre. If you can't get to one no-one need panic they don't get knocked off the list. But your GP will contact you in the same way as they do with flu jab. If you really need to stay home then once you are contacted by your GP that's the time to see what can be done. The Oxford vaccine is much user friendly and more practical to be taken place to place. So the home visit option is now much more possible how quick it can be gone is a different matter and will be down to having the staff to do them. 

As for the vaccine the phone in today on radio five live this morning covered it in a very clear way. Even after one dose a vaccine will give a level of protection the time for it to reach maxium protection of this one looks to be around 2/3 weeks. If you are thinking of do you need both for it work? Then no you don't basally vaccines don't work like that you build antibodies once you get the first dose. The other dose gives an extra boost. First dose as once explained to me at uni is like protection from all but the worse weather , second one makes it stand up to extreme weather. If your thinking of minimising risk traveling then that's a different issue. 

Simple advice is if you are offered one and can attend go and have it and please if you book for one and turn out you can't go. Let them know and then it can be given to someones else. If not it will be wasted and even once more supply comes it will still be very much in short supply.


----------



## Johnno260 (11 Jan 2021)

I have a funny feeling outside exercise will be restricted.

After witnessing the supermarket last week when the online delivery failed to deliver 50% of the food they need to control those better, there is zero distancing, and if someone is challenged over not wearing a mask or distancing then tempers flare.

This whole situation has made me face palm daily about how entitled some people are, I thought kids where bad but these supposed adults have a loose wire.

Social media has a lot to answer for, free speech sure but fanning some of these tin foil conspiracies isn’t acceptable.

People like Katie Hopkins have a lot to answer as well.

Like I have said before, ants have a better social morale compass then some people.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> *I have a funny feeling outside exercise will be restricted.*
> 
> After witnessing the supermarket last week when the online delivery failed to deliver 50% of the food they need to control those better, there is zero distancing, and if someone is challenged over not wearing a mask or distancing then tempers flare.
> 
> ...



Already being cited on news channels as the next step.

FWIW - I think the restriction should be exercise locally (with a radius figure) and on a household member/bubble basis only. With NO exceptions - and that includes cycling and those people who have signed the petition to open golf courses. The latter obviously having no concept of 'the thin end of the wedge' (pun intended).


----------



## tom73 (11 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> I have a funny feeling outside exercise will be restricted.
> 
> After witnessing the supermarket last week when the online delivery failed to deliver 50% of the food they need to control those better, there is zero distancing, and if someone is challenged over not wearing a mask or distancing then tempers flare.
> 
> ...



Shops need to get on board with this and get staff to fully understand they have a part in this too. Late yesterday afternoon a neighbour who's shielding ask me to go and get a bit of food shopping. So I call into our local tesco express One of the staff asked her supervisor if she can take off her masked when she's behind the till. Yes that ok she got told, as if an airborne virus is stopped by a plastic screen. 
Why did she ask she complained her nose get sweaty sorry but get real if the likes of my and your wife can wear a much worse mask for 12 hours then she can cope. If she thinks that uncomfortable lord help her she get's covid and needs CPAP or worse then she will really have problems. Staff standing close to each other talking away or not even trying to avoid customers even when they can get out the way is not helping either.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> No.
> 
> Is the idea is to restore the priority treatment of cities, with a distracting sop to Stevenage to maybe line them up for an early derestriction trial to silence their anti-lockdown MP?



I too was trying to fathom the logic of Stevenage tbh - can't find anything that alludes to it on the web.

In the course of my (admittedly brief) 'research' I have noted that South Lakeland where I live is unlikely to have a MVC located here as we are right near the bottom of the population density list at #311. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_districts_by_population_density


----------



## tom73 (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Already being cited on news channels as the next step.
> 
> FWIW - I think the restriction should be exercise locally (with a radius figure) and on a household member/bubble basis only. With NO exceptions - and that includes cycling and those people who have signed the petition to open golf courses. The latter obviously having no concept of 'the thin end of the wedge' (pun intended).



That leads onto the other big problem around bubbles, too many people are setting them up I know a good few who have more than one , childcare bubbles are the same and are being used as a way to socialise with others. I'm having issue at the moment with SIL who's in one with in-laws (both over 70). Her household is round all the time as if nothing is happening. Household mixing is a key driver of this thing and some very clear advice needs to get out. The guidelines are clear but not much is said about them. Whitty was very clear today taking pains to repeat it. If you do to need to meet up with anyone then don't.


----------



## CanucksTraveller (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I too was trying to fathom the logic of Stevenage tbh - can't find anything that alludes to it on the web.



Stevenage is a big town (pop 90k) and it's on the main train lines from Cambridge and Peterborough to London and onwards (both lines have many "dormitory" towns along them), so easily reached for many hundreds of thousands more. The vaccination centre is also literally about 3 minutes off the A1. There was a significant council property available immediately... It seems to make perfectly good sense.


----------



## Rezillo (11 Jan 2021)

RoadRider400 said:


> Due to covid or with covid?



I don't know about the US but in the UK, a published analysis from last October that involved looking at deaths with the underlying cause being Covid-19 rather than just Covid being present on the death certificate, has:

"Between 1 January and 31 August 2020, 52,327 deaths in England and Wales involved COVID-19. Out of these, 48,168 deaths were due to COVID-19: that is, COVID-19 was the underlying cause. This was 12.4% of all deaths for the period (389,835 deaths). In the same period 69,781 deaths involved pneumonia and 506 deaths involved influenza: out of these, 13,619 and 394 deaths were due to pneumonia and influenza respectively". 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020

There may be more recent studies - the one above was for a flu comparison. 

What the above translates to is that in the UK 92% of deaths with Covid on the death cert from January to August last year had Covid as the underlying cause of death. It is unlikely to be radically different in the US but I'm not familiar with how the US records its cases, so I could be wrong.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> Our GP practice was running drive in vaccinations for the elderly this weekend. Still no vaccination for the local care homes, where the risk is highest.
> 
> Oh and my brother is fuming. His business partner is off sick with Covid. He half owns a dental practice, and they have now lost half the appointments whilst his partner recovers. Said partner's brother fled London just before Christmas to spend it with his sister , the whole family caught it. 'Oh it wasn't from my brother she said'. My brother hasn't been squeaky clean over Christmas either, as he spend Christmas day with the in-laws and his missus 3 sister's families (five in total).



I've come to the conclusion that higher intelligence has no bearing on ability/desire to comply with rules/regulations.

Your family situation sounds similar to some elements of mine.

Fed up to the back teeth with them and I wish that there was some way to shove them to the back of the vaccination rollout schedule.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Stevenage is a big town (pop 90k) and it's on the main train lines from Cambridge and Peterborough to London and onwards (both lines have many "dormitory" towns along them), so easily reached for many hundreds of thousands more. The vaccination centre is also literally about 3 minutes off the A1. There was a significant council property available immediately... It seems to make perfectly good sense.



Thank you.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I too was trying to fathom the logic of Stevenage tbh - can't find anything that alludes to it on the web.
> 
> In the course of my (admittedly brief) 'research' I have noted that South Lakeland where I live is unlikely to have a MVC located here as we are right near the bottom of the population density list at #311.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_districts_by_population_density


The MP for Stevenage, McPartland, is one of Hertfordshire's anti-lockdowners.


----------



## fossyant (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I've come to the conclusion that higher intelligence has no bearing on ability/desire to comply with rules/regulations.
> 
> Your family situation sounds similar to some elements of mine.
> 
> Fed up to the back teeth with them and I wish that there was some way to shove them to the back of the vaccination rollout schedule.



It's basically my brother's missus - she's lovely, but won't be told she can't see family. They are all working in 'risky' areas - 2 in school, 2 NHS (one looking after Covid patients) and 1 in the Prison Service. All we'' educated, but just said 'life is for living'. It's not us that are at risk - nana and grandad is where the risk is.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> That leads onto the other big problem around bubbles, too many people are setting them up I know a good few who have more than one , childcare bubbles are the same and are being used as a way to socialise with others. I'm having issue at the moment with SIL who's in one with in-laws (both over 70). Her household is round all the time as if nothing is happening. Household mixing is a key driver of this thing and some very clear advice needs to get out. The guidelines are clear but not much is said about them. Whitty was very clear today taking pains to repeat it. If you do to need to meet up with anyone then don't.



Honestly Tom - this type of issue has become quite big in our household. It is straining some family and friendship relationships to the limit.

We cannot countenance even speaking to some of them right now. We don't want to permanently damage the relationships but some people will just not listen. 

What do you do when someone says "***k the rules, no one is stopping me seeing my kids"? Three London households involved one of which is home to two NHS medical staff!!!

I'm generally quite upbeat re our ability to get on top of this situation compared to some but the above is dragging me down.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> It's basically my brother's missus - she's lovely, but won't be told she can't see family. They are all working in 'risky' areas - 2 in school, 2 NHS (one looking after Covid patients) and 1 in the Prison Service. All we'' educated, but just said 'life is for living'. It's not us that are at risk - nana and grandad is where the risk is.



We are picking up the same vibes from other friends of ours ie they are doing the right thing but people they are close to just aren't.

One friend of ours has ranted at four of _her_ friends since Xmas for non-compliance and all four relationships have collapsed.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (11 Jan 2021)

I've said it before but I despair at our local convenience store. It's in clear view of my window as I type and around 50% of the locals don't wear a mask when they go in. I asked the owner last week if he wasn't worried about this (he always wears a mask himself) and he just shrugged. If I were looking at transmission hubs, I wouldn't be looking at supermarkets where compliance is high, I'd be looking at the smaller independents.


----------



## Unkraut (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Honestly Tom - this type of issue has become quite big in our household. It is straining some family and friendship relationships to the limit.
> 
> We cannot countenance even speaking to some of them right now. We don't want to permanently damage the relationships but some people will just not listen.


I don't think there is any easy answer to this. When people are putting their own and others' lives at risk, you could argue there is some kind of moral obligation to try to get them to see sense and obey the rules. They might one day thank you for it - and at least you can have a clear conscience that you tried even if unsuccessful.

What I don't understand is going by the anecdotal evidence on the corona threads here this is seemingly widespread. Where are people getting the information from that the virus is relatively harmless and you don't need to bother with any restrictions? Do they not see the footage of what is happening in hospitals in places of massive rates of infection?


----------



## tom73 (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Honestly Tom - this type of issue has become quite big in our household. It is straining some family and friendship relationships to the limit.
> 
> We cannot countenance even speaking to some of them right now. We don't want to permanently damage the relationships but some people will just not listen.
> 
> ...



Same here both my BIL's are just as bad but yet they all went out and clamped for big sis if they real want to help her just do what's been asked. They all live away from us it's less an issue at home though between me and Mrs 73 we've argued not to talk about.


----------



## johnblack (11 Jan 2021)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Stevenage is a big town (pop 90k) and it's on the main train lines from Cambridge and Peterborough to London and onwards (both lines have many "dormitory" towns along them), so easily reached for many hundreds of thousands more. The vaccination centre is also literally about 3 minutes off the A1. There was a significant council property available immediately... It seems to make perfectly good sense.


Them having one southish of London in Epsom and northish in Stevenage probably makes sense due to the pop. density and how the SE seems to be maybe the most infected at the moment.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> Our GP practice was running drive in vaccinations for the elderly this weekend. Still no vaccination for the local care homes, where the risk is highest.
> 
> Oh and my brother is fuming. His business partner is off sick with Covid. He half owns a dental practice, and they have now lost half the appointments whilst his partner recovers. Said partner's brother fled London just before Christmas to spend it with his sister , the whole family caught it. 'Oh it wasn't from my brother she said'. My brother hasn't been squeaky clean over Christmas either, as he spend Christmas day with the in-laws and his missus 3 sister's families (five in total).





Unkraut said:


> I don't think there is any easy answer to this. When people are putting their own and others' lives at risk, you could argue there is some kind of moral obligation to try to get them to see sense and obey the rules. They might one day thank you for it - and at least you can have a clear conscience that you tried even if unsuccessful.
> 
> What I don't understand is going by the anecdotal evidence on the corona threads here this is seemingly widespread. Where are people getting the information from that the virus is relatively harmless and you don't need to bother with any restrictions? Do they not see the footage of what is happening in hospitals in places of massive rates of infection?





tom73 said:


> Same here both my BIL's are just as bad but yet they all went out and clamped for big sis if they real want to help her just do what's been asked. They all live away from us it's less an issue at home though between me and Mrs 73 we've argued not to talk about.



And from a very small slice of the population I must assume that this problem is massive.

I'm frustrated that there is a tacit recognition of the problem in the News but why are there no very hard hitting broadcasts from the Gov about this?

Some people (lots by the look of it) need to be told forcibly that _they_ are the problem. 

I don't think we should pussyfoot around this issue as a society - being nice and advisory hasn't worked.


----------



## Johnno260 (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Already being cited on news channels as the next step.
> 
> FWIW - I think the restriction should be exercise locally (with a radius figure) and on a household member/bubble basis only. With NO exceptions - and that includes cycling and those people who have signed the petition to open golf courses. The latter obviously having no concept of 'the thin end of the wedge' (pun intended).



I know in Germany a friend said for their area they have a 15km radius.

Alone is fine with me I'm a hermit cyclist anyway haha.



tom73 said:


> Shops need to get on board with this and get staff to fully understand they have a part in this too. Late yesterday afternoon a neighbour who's shielding ask me to go and get a bit of food shopping. So I call into our local tesco express One of the staff asked her supervisor if she can take off her masked when she's behind the till. Yes that ok she got told, as if an airborne virus is stopped by a plastic screen.
> Why did she ask she complained her nose get sweaty sorry but get real if the likes of my and your wife can wear a much worse mask for 12 hours then she can cope. If she thinks that uncomfortable lord help her she get's covid and needs CPAP or worse then she will really have problems. Staff standing close to each other talking away or not even trying to avoid customers even when they can get out the way is not helping either.



I don't think they want the responsibility of enforcing, also seeing how belligerent and militant some are I can see why, then again I think some go out to cause issue, I know of cases where people have been filming themselves so when they get confronted they kick off, I know a friend when this happened in a hospital, wearing a mask is no different to places having dress codes, if you don't like it go elsewhere it's simple in my mind.


----------



## Johnno260 (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Honestly Tom - this type of issue has become quite big in our household. It is straining some family and friendship relationships to the limit.
> 
> We cannot countenance even speaking to some of them right now. We don't want to permanently damage the relationships but some people will just not listen.
> 
> ...



I have pretty much disowned 4 family members due to their behavior, not something I did lightly, but their actions and words were beyond anything acceptable.

It's to the point were I don't think I will ever want to build bridges with them as their comments and actions were so vile.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> I have pretty much disowned 4 family members due to their behavior, not something I did lightly, but their actions and words were beyond anything acceptable.
> 
> It's to the point were I don't think I will ever want to build bridges with them as their comments and actions were so vile.



That's really sad - we are trying very hard to avoid this happening here.


----------



## Johnno260 (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> That's really sad - we are trying very hard to avoid this happening here.


It's worth trying, I was called a Nazi sheep for being pro-mask and being compliant with rules in place, he also called my wife who is a nurse a puppet and an actress spewing government propaganda. other more extreme views were voiced as well.

I took the view my life and my families are better off without this kind of toxicity around.


----------



## midlife (11 Jan 2021)

One of our maintenance engineers has just died of COVID, 39 years old


----------



## All uphill (11 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> It's worth trying, I was called a Nazi sheep for being pro-mask and being compliant with rules in place, he also called my wife who is a nurse a puppet and an actress spewing government propaganda. other more extreme views were voiced as well.
> 
> I took the view my life and my families are better off without this kind of toxicity around.


I'm sure you are right, there is nothing to be gained by expressing your view more than once.

Maybe they know they are acting selfishly and get angry because you have outed them?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I don't think we should pussyfoot around this issue as a society - being nice and advisory hasn't worked



I don't really agree with this.

We've communicated contradictory messages for months: "Cumings did what anyone would do"; "Eat out to Catch Covid"; "Stop skiving, Save Pret, Catch Covid"; "Here's a tier system we don't think will work"; "Save Christmas, Catch COVID"; "Schools are safe, oh no they're not"

Despite this, compliance has been pretty good generally - much of the evidence is that breaches are where people simply can't afford to comply. We should offer much clearer messaging and more support first.

I wouldn't support enforcement except where really egregious breaches are happening.


----------



## tom73 (11 Jan 2021)

Unkraut said:


> I don't think there is any easy answer to this. When people are putting their own and others' lives at risk, you could argue there is some kind of moral obligation to try to get them to see sense and obey the rules. They might one day thank you for it - and at least you can have a clear conscience that you tried even if unsuccessful.
> 
> What I don't understand is going by the anecdotal evidence on the corona threads here this is seemingly widespread. Where are people getting the information from that the virus is relatively harmless and you don't need to bother with any restrictions? Do they not see the footage of what is happening in hospitals in places of massive rates of infection?





Unkraut said:


> I don't think there is any easy answer to this. When people are putting their own and others' lives at risk, you could argue there is some kind of moral obligation to try to get them to see sense and obey the rules. They might one day thank you for it - and at least you can have a clear conscience that you tried even if unsuccessful.
> 
> What I don't understand is going by the anecdotal evidence on the corona threads here this is seemingly widespread. Where are people getting the information from that the virus is relatively harmless and you don't need to bother with any restrictions? Do they not see the footage of what is happening in hospitals in places of massive rates of infection?



The biggest issue is for any of this to work you need clear, consistent messaging and have confidence in who's giving it. Parts of the world with same freedoms of us that have this under control understand that. Without this less people are likely to follow the rules. 
All of which we've never had. So it's been left to the likes of Whitty to effective break rank and go all out trying to get everyone to understand just how much s**t we are in right now. What is not helping them is he and others are being undermined by the media inc main stream. 
Many just think if I can do x why not y as on the face of it makes no sense but from a public health , virology point of view it is. Which go's back to not being clear about the basics in the first place. Even then some of the i'm not stopping that/human rights only effective enforcement is likely to work. 

None of which will work with the anti bunch only by being much more effective at getting the true message out and in ways that's accessible to all can you make it look totally without any fact.


----------



## Johnno260 (11 Jan 2021)

All uphill said:


> I'm sure you are right, there is nothing to be gained by expressing your view more than once.
> 
> Maybe they know they are acting selfishly and get angry because you have outed them?



If I felt this was true I would be more forgiving, but they seem totally confident and justified in their comments.

This view of theirs to be honest solidified my decision.


----------



## tom73 (11 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I don't really agree with this.
> 
> We've communicated contradictory messages for months: "Cumings did what anyone would do"; "Eat out to Catch Covid"; "Stop skiving, Save Pret, Catch Covid"; "Here's a tier system we don't think will work"; "Save Christmas, Catch COVID"; "Schools are safe, oh no they're not"
> 
> ...


That bring us to the other problem lack of effective support for people to be able to the right thing. Only 8% of the poor parts of Liverpool coming forward for testing in the rapid test trial is not coincidence. The other thing is practical support which is totally missing some who can simply can't. You can't isolate in multi house households. New York for example worked that out long ago.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I don't really agree with this.
> 
> We've communicated contradictory messages for months: "Cumings did what anyone would do"; "Eat out to Catch Covid"; "Stop skiving, Save Pret, Catch Covid"; "Here's a tier system we don't think will work"; "Save Christmas, Catch COVID"; "Schools are safe, oh no they're not"
> 
> ...



Well, without wanting to get too distracted by the confusion debate, right now it seems pretty simple to understand the stay at home/don't mix rules.

From what we are picking up here on CC today is that a whole lot of people who are far from unintelligent are willfully ignoring simple edicts. 

That needs a very hard hitting message to address it.


----------



## Johnno260 (11 Jan 2021)

The issue is they expect people to act with common sense, a chunk of people have sense of self and that's all.


----------



## rockyroller (11 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> One of our maintenance engineers has just died of COVID, 39 years old


sorry to hear that. I took 5 months off from my 2nd job, a part-time job at a big-box home improvement store. when I returned I was told one of my colleagues had died due to covid only a few weeks after I stopped going in. about 10 yrs ago he was my 1st day mentor. Charlie in appliances was a nice guy, maybe only 6 yrs older than me. I found over the past few weeks, my feelings & emotions have evolved. here's wishing you peace as you may come to terms with that specific news


----------



## rockyroller (11 Jan 2021)

RoadRider400 said:


> Due to covid or with covid?


what? "because of" does that help? I don't know the hundreds of thousands of individual case details, except that without covid they wouldn't be dead


----------



## tom73 (11 Jan 2021)

T & T have redefined close contact the 15 min contact time with covid + contact is now cumulatively over the course of one day and no longer only in single period. That's going to make a good few work placers look a bit bare. The NHS are really going to have problems if they don't have enough on already.


----------



## mjr (11 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> T & T have redefined close contact the 15 min contact time with covid + contact is now cumulatively over the course of one day and no longer only in single period. That's going to make a good few work placers look a bit bare. The NHS are really going to have problems if they don't have enough on already.


Maybe the NHS should be exempted and allowed to do its best because of the dire emergency but more generally, I am suprised and disappointed that this was not generally already the case. Certainly a couple of workplaces near me that I know had already been considering it cumulative because of the theory about accumulating virus particles.

If the above is true and TaT have only just changed to 15min a day, then it is a farking scandal and no surprise a more infectious variant has spread so easily because loads who should have been isolating won't have been contacted. Someone should resign over that blunder!


----------



## mjr (11 Jan 2021)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Stevenage is a big town (pop 90k) and it's on the main train lines from Cambridge and Peterborough to London and onwards (both lines have many "dormitory" towns along them), so easily reached for many hundreds of thousands more. The vaccination centre is also literally about 3 minutes off the A1.


Neither of which should matter when people should be walking or cycling, not driving or on trains.

I still suspect it is positioning the town for an early derestriction trial.


----------



## mjr (11 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> If I were looking at transmission hubs, I wouldn't be looking at supermarkets where compliance is high, I'd be looking at the smaller independents.


So tempted to wear a body cam on my next shopping pick ups. Compliance is not high in supermarkets. Superspreadermarkets, more like. Village stores are much better plus there are fewer in there with you.


----------



## midlife (11 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Maybe the NHS should be exempted and allowed to do its best because of the dire emergency but more generally, I am suprised and disappointed that this was not generally already the case. Certainly a couple of workplaces near me that I know had already been considering it cumulative because of the theory about accumulating virus particles.
> 
> If the above is true and TaT have only just changed to 15min a day, then it is a farking scandal and no surprise a more infectious variant has spread so easily because loads who should have been isolating won't have been contacted. Someone should resign over that blunder!



We are told to turn off our track and trace app at work (NHS), as we work in a covid secure environment we are not meant to be able to contract it at work.....


----------



## mjr (11 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> We are told to turn off our track and trace app at work (NHS), as we work in a covid secure environment we are not meant to be able to contract it at work.....


Ah but all businesses are covid secure if they downloaded and printed a certificate, aren't they?


----------



## Low Gear Guy (11 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> T & T have redefined close contact the 15 min contact time with covid + contact is now cumulatively over the course of one day and no longer only in single period. That's going to make a good few work placers look a bit bare. The NHS are really going to have problems if they don't have enough on already.


Track and trace won't work anyway for jobs where you leave your phone in your jacket or locker while you wander around site.


----------



## tom73 (11 Jan 2021)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Track and trace won't work anyway for jobs where you leave your phone in your jacket or locker while you wander around site.


Track and trace has nothing to do the magic app it's been done for years long before this tat's what contact tracing is all about.
Anyone who tests + is/should be contacted plus work placers should have a process in place to help trace contacts.


----------



## shep (11 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> So tempted to wear a body cam on my next shopping pick ups. Compliance is not high in supermarkets. Superspreadermarkets, more like. Village stores are much better plus there are fewer in there with you.


What would you do with the recording as a matter of interest?

Just wondering.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

Good news but cannot say it is a problem in our local Morries:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55618408


----------



## classic33 (11 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> I know in Germany a friend said for their area they have a 15km radius.
> 
> Alone is fine with me I'm a hermit cyclist anyway haha.
> 
> ...


I saw a bottle being used to clout the lass on the checkout in the first lockdown, when they were limiting how many you could buy. Hit across the arm, and broke on till area.

People don't like being told what they can and can't have, and no-one, especially a "school kid" is going to tell them what they can & cannot buy.

Things carry on as they are, it might just be time to break out the Hazmat suit


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

Vaccination program - stickied in NACA:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...gest-vaccination-programme-in-british-history


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jan 2021)

Good briefing from Hancock tonight - usual idiot questions from some of the press.


----------



## johnblack (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Good news but cannot say it is a problem in our local Morries:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55618408


I've got to say, our local supermarkets have been absolutely fine, no issues at all.


----------



## tom73 (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Good briefing from Hancock tonight - usual idiot questions from some of the press.



The guy is a prat and totally clueless so only fair that an idiot gets questions to match the mindset of the one replying to them. 
Take yesterday even when his own dept report he say's it wrong as it's not in line with the governments grand plan. A total prat who i'd not even leave alone with a lego hospital never mind a health service.


----------



## matticus (11 Jan 2021)

johnblack said:


> I've got to say, our local supermarkets have been absolutely fine, no issues at all.


Same here. Not a mega-affluent area (nearest town looks down on us!)

But clearly some are witnessing different. I'd like to see MJR's body-cam video!

My theory is that behaviour is viral; being British no-one challenges passive selfish behaviour, so people see it and decide "_Oh, well, no reason I should be inconvenienced if noone _else _is_". And it spreads - but only locally.


----------



## mjr (11 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Good briefing from Hancock tonight - usual idiot questions from some of the press.


What did you like about it? https://www.gov.uk/government/speec...ement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-11-january-2021 seems so-so.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> So tempted to wear a body cam on my next shopping pick ups. Compliance is not high in supermarkets. Superspreadermarkets, more like. Village stores are much better plus there are fewer in there with you.


I must say there seems to be a great increase in supermarket shoppers anxious to protect us all from some kind of chin infection. Chinronavirus must be far more infectious than coronavirus.


----------



## Johnno260 (11 Jan 2021)

classic33 said:


> I saw a bottle being used to clout the lass on the checkout in the first lockdown, when they were limiting how many you could buy. Hit across the arm, and broke on till area.
> 
> People don't like being told what they can and can't have, and no-one, especially a "school kid" is going to tell them what they can & cannot buy.
> 
> Things carry on as they are, it might just be time to break out the Hazmat suit



Yea I saw I thing barge an old boy out the way before he took what it wanted, I can’t call it female or a person as it was neither.

Luckily the store security guy who is paid to stop shop lifters grabbed it and twisted its arm behind it’s back and forcibly ejected it from the store, the cheer he got rivalled anything at a football ground, it was told never come back.

You hit the nail on the head, kids aren’t gonna tell a rampaging man child what they can/can’t purchase, I would say screw it put squaddies on tills and see if people have the same balls when a red beret is sitting the other side of the till, if someone does get in a paras face I would pay to see the footage.


----------



## mjr (11 Jan 2021)

Unkraut said:


> Where are people getting the information from that the virus is relatively harmless and you don't need to bother with any restrictions? Do they not see the footage of what is happening in hospitals in places of massive rates of infection?


Facebook. Forums. Full of stuff saying this is just a flu being blown out of all proportion.

They think the footage of hospitals is fake: https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news/lincoln-news/anti-covid-protesters-lincoln-county-4859899 https://www.chelmsfordweeklynews.co...hoax-claims-nonsense-insult-staff---nhs-boss/


----------



## mjr (11 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I must say there seems to be a great increase in supermarket shoppers anxious to protect us all from some kind of chin infection. Chinronavirus must be far more infectious than coronavirus.


Well, en français, c'est le cou-vide!

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aZLAfS7Tcks

(In French, it is the empty neck...)


----------



## tom73 (12 Jan 2021)

Yet another grim record reached and still be walk blindly into the next. 
ONS report last year was worst excess deaths since WW2


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 Jan 2021)

View: https://youtu.be/05bG9sPQOgQ


----------



## kingrollo (13 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Yet another grim record reached and still be walk blindly into the next.
> ONS report last year was worst excess deaths since WW2



Dire - so dire but Garden Centres and McDonalds remain open !


----------



## rockyroller (13 Jan 2021)

over 4,300 Americans died yesterday. I wonder how many need to die, in a single day, for certain members of the US congress, to wear masks?


----------



## kingrollo (13 Jan 2021)

rockyroller said:


> over 4,300 Americans died yesterday. I wonder how many need to die, in a single day, for certain members of the US congress, to wear masks?


Just 1 !!!


----------



## matticus (13 Jan 2021)

rockyroller said:


> over 4,300 Americans died yesterday. I wonder how many need to die, in a single day, for certain members of the US congress, to wear masks?



I was shocked at the report of those republicans refusing to wear masks during the Capitol riot, while in close confinement with other members. An elderly member has tested positive and posted how angry he was with his "colleagues". That is verging on man-slaughter.
(Will try to dig out the statement, unless someone points it out on this thread first ...)


----------



## johnblack (13 Jan 2021)

Any body else been asked to do a home antibody test by Imperial and Ipsos Mori? 

I got the request yesterday, obviously happy to do it. 

I take it they don't supply you with your result?


----------



## vickster (13 Jan 2021)

johnblack said:


> Any body else been asked to do a home antibody test by Imperial and Ipsos Mori?
> 
> I got the request yesterday, obviously happy to do it.
> 
> I take it they don't supply you with your result?


There should be FAQs on the website


----------



## PK99 (13 Jan 2021)

johnblack said:


> Any body else been asked to do a home antibody test by Imperial and Ipsos Mori?
> 
> I got the request yesterday, obviously happy to do it.
> 
> I take it they don't supply you with your result?



A friend did one and was told


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (13 Jan 2021)

johnblack said:


> Any body else been asked to do a home antibody test by Imperial and Ipsos Mori?
> 
> I got the request yesterday, obviously happy to do it.
> 
> I take it they don't supply you with your result?



I did one and was told the result very quickly.


----------



## tom73 (13 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Dire - so dire but Garden Centres and McDonalds remain open !



Can't see that being a problem "use your common sense and all that"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-...ff011e16968a03078656a3&pinned_post_type=share


----------



## Skibird (13 Jan 2021)

johnblack said:


> Any body else been asked to do a home antibody test by Imperial and Ipsos Mori?
> 
> I got the request yesterday, obviously happy to do it.
> 
> I take it they don't supply you with your result?


If it's the same as mine was, you actually see he results in 10 mins.


----------



## BoldonLad (13 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Dire - so dire but Garden Centres and* McDonalds* remain open !



For take-away only, and delivery. I believe? (not a customer) I do see the queue of cars, at the nearby McD, as I go about my daily walk/cycle ride.

Is it only McD which should be ordered to close, or, all Take-away outlets?


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://youtu.be/05bG9sPQOgQ




My brother has a severe phobia of needles, resulting in panic attacks or fainting. It's a horrible situation to be in, particularly as he has a number of medical problems that necessitate the use of them in his treatment.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (13 Jan 2021)

glasgowcyclist said:


> My brother has a severe phobia of needles, resulting in panic attacks or fainting. It's a horrible situation to be in, particularly as he has a number of medical problems that necessitate the use of them in his treatment.



Are those painless things that fire whatever is being injected straight through the skin in use? I thought that this was the way ahead some years ago?


----------



## vickster (13 Jan 2021)

Nope, don't think they ever took off (at least not in the mainstream)

Needles are very fine these days, I've just had to self inject heparin for 20 days after ankle op (high DVT risk being fairly immobile and non weight bearing)
...no pain from the actual needle...although my abdomen is covered in bruises but that's down to the substance rather than needle (my crap technique maybe didn't help as the first injection done by the nurse showing me what to do didn't leave a mark  )

Actually they do exist...but don't know which companies actually market with active substance (or where)
https://pharmajet.com/stratis-imsc/
https://insujet.com/

They wouldn't use for a single use vaccination, far too expensive


----------



## SpokeyDokey (13 Jan 2021)

vickster said:


> Nope, don't think they ever took off (at least not in the mainstream)
> 
> Needles are very fine these days, I've just had to self inject heparin for 20 days after ankle op (high DVT risk being fairly immobile and non weight bearing)
> ...no pain from the actual needle...although my abdomen is covered in bruises but that's down to the substance rather than needle (my crap technique maybe didn't help as the first injection done by the nurse showing me what to do didn't leave a mark  )



I think I saw them on Tomorrow's World yonks back.


----------



## vickster (13 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think I saw them on Tomorrow's World yonks back.


Yeah I’m sure I did an MR study similarly yonks ago!


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (13 Jan 2021)

Needles can be very fine, but it depends on what they are being used for. The needles on my insulin pens are very fine, the ones used to take blood samples at the diabetic clinics are a lot fatter!


----------



## midlife (13 Jan 2021)

The needles need to be long enough and stiff enough to get into the muscle so wider than a heparin / diabetic needle. 

1564 deaths recorded today


----------



## vickster (13 Jan 2021)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> Needles can be very fine, but it depends on what they are being used for. The needles on my insulin pens are very fine, the ones used to take blood samples at the diabetic clinics are a lot fatter!


Blood thicker and gloopier than insulin...


----------



## LCpl Boiled Egg (13 Jan 2021)

vickster said:


> Blood thicker and gloopier than insulin...





midlife said:


> The needles need to be long enough and stiff enough to get into the muscle so wider than a heparin / diabetic needle.



Absolutely, and while I'm fairly OK with needles I hope I never have to use my EpiPen - that is designed to go through clothes into the muscle... although if I ever have to the size of the needle won't be at the front of my mind!


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Are those painless things that fire whatever is being injected straight through the skin in use? I thought that this was the way ahead some years ago?




Not seen that except in the sick bay of the USS Enterprise!
Wouldn't be any use as an intravenous cannula that he needs now and again anyway. And don't even say the word _dentist._


----------



## vickster (13 Jan 2021)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Not seen that except in the sick bay of the USS Enterprise!
> Wouldn't be any use as an intravenous cannula that he needs now and again anyway. And don't even say the word _dentist._


Has he considered trying hypnotherapy? Just a thought (I know of someone who successfully used for a blood phobia for example)


----------



## kingrollo (13 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> For take-away only, and delivery. I believe? (not a customer) I do see the queue of cars, at the nearby McD, as I go about my daily walk/cycle ride.
> 
> Is it only McD which should be ordered to close, or, all Take-away outlets?



Well cafes are still open as well. We are told how dire the situation is - then we allow fast food, cafes, and garden centres to open. It just don't seem right to me.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (13 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> The needles need to be long enough and stiff enough to get into the muscle so wider than a heparin / diabetic needle.
> 
> 1564 deaths recorded today


I feared it was going to be a ''record'' day.


----------



## midlife (13 Jan 2021)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Not seen that except in the sick bay of the USS Enterprise!
> Wouldn't be any use as an intravenous cannula that he needs now and again anyway. And don't even say the word _dentist._



Yep, used about 30 years ago but stopped because of risks of infection.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_injector


----------



## Adam4868 (13 Jan 2021)

At least we've taken back control of our borders...what could go wrong.

View: https://twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1349399900203720705?s=19


----------



## mjr (13 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Well cafes are still open as well. We are told how dire the situation is - then we allow fast food, cafes, and garden centres to open. It just don't seem right to me.


Is it because gov.uk doesn't want to compensate them too?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (13 Jan 2021)

glasgowcyclist said:


> Not seen that except in the sick bay of the USS Enterprise!
> Wouldn't be any use as an intravenous cannula that he needs now and again anyway. And don't even say the word _dentist._



Have a read when you are bored. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4675000/


----------



## SpokeyDokey (13 Jan 2021)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> Absolutely, and while I'm fairly OK with needles I hope I never have to use my EpiPen - that is designed to go through clothes into the muscle... although if I ever have to the size of the needle won't be at the front of my mind!



They are ok according to my wife - she uses them to fire Sumatriptin into her thigh for the nightmare called Cluster Headaches.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (13 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> Yep, used about 30 years ago but stopped because of risks of infection.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_injector



Thanks - fits with my Tomorrows World timescale.


----------



## randynewmanscat (13 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> I was shocked at the report of those republicans refusing to wear masks during the Capitol riot, while in close confinement with other members. An elderly member has tested positive and posted how angry he was with his "colleagues". That is verging on man-slaughter.
> (Will try to dig out the statement, unless someone points it out on this thread first ...)


Trial by combat with virus.


----------



## BoldonLad (13 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Well cafes are still open as well. We are told how dire the situation is - then we allow fast food, cafes, and garden centres to open. It just don't seem right to me.


So, to be clear, that is ALL take-away food outlets you would like to see closed?

Not a problem to me, personally, I don’t use them.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (13 Jan 2021)

Stricter controls are coming into force in Scotland on Saturday:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55646778

"Only shops selling essential items - such as clothing, footwear, baby equipment, homeware and books - will be allowed to offer click and collect.

Collections must also be outdoors, with appointments staggered to avoid queuing.
And takeaways can no longer allow customers indoors, and must instead operate from a hatch or doorway."

Further details are at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55649853


----------



## mjr (13 Jan 2021)

glasgowcyclist said:


> "[...] Collections must also be outdoors, with appointments staggered to avoid queuing.
> And takeaways can no longer allow customers indoors, and must instead operate from a hatch or doorway."


I've mixed feelings about limiting it to a defined list of essential items, but the above two things seem bleeding obvious and a bit disappointing that shops have to be regulated to do them. I was fairly annoyed that my click-and-collect (of essential products) during the November lockdown was indoors and at exactly the same time as 5 other people's appointments.

I think my last supermarket click-and-collect (which was dire in many ways) was also at exactly the same time as others. It was at least outdoors, even if they were completely not ready for a bicycle+trailer.


----------



## kingrollo (13 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> So, to be clear, that is ALL take-away food outlets you would like to see closed?
> 
> Not a problem to me, personally, I don’t use them.



Why not - if we are in the business of marginal gains ?

It was reported in the local news by me that 2 McDonald s staff had tested positive. They each might have infected another 3 - and so on.

To me there is little to gain by keeping fast food outlets open. If we want to reduce interactions to only the essential - then they shouldn't be open.


----------



## BoldonLad (13 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Why not - if we are in the business of marginal gains ?
> 
> It was reported in the local news by me that 2 McDonald s staff had tested positive. They each might have infected another 3 - and so on.
> 
> To me there is little to gain by keeping fast food outlets open. If we want to reduce interactions to only the essential - then they shouldn't be open.



OK. I have no issue with that, just trying to establish if this was an anti-McD thing, or, a general Food Take-away thing.

As I said, I do not frequent McD, or, indeed, any fast food outlet, but, I don't see that my personal preferences should make it illegal, or, even, frowned upon, for other people to do so.


----------



## mjr (13 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> OK. I have no issue with that, just trying to establish if this was an anti-McD thing, or, a general Food Take-away thing.
> 
> As I said, I do not frequent McD, or, indeed, any fast food outlet, but, I don't see that my personal preferences should make it illegal, or, even, frowned upon, for other people to do so.


A pizza van is visiting my village. I'd have to preorder and book a collection time. Does the panel think it is worse to interact with people and to eat high-fat food, or to refuse to support a small business and to have go food shopping almost a day sooner? WWYD?


----------



## kingrollo (13 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> OK. I have no issue with that, just trying to establish if this was an anti-McD thing, or, a general Food Take-away thing.
> 
> As I said, I do not frequent McD, or, indeed, any fast food outlet, but, I don't see that my personal preferences should make it illegal, or, even, frowned upon, for other people to do so.



It's not anti MCdonald or anti fast food even. But if we are told to everything possible to limit interaction to the bare minimum - I just don't think they are essential.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (13 Jan 2021)

I suspect that a visit to a fast food outlet won't really put off that journey to the supermarket, so that's two outings rather than one. I'd imagine that fast food service might be lower risk than the big shop but it's not going to replace it. 2 catch and spread opportunities versus one.


----------



## classic33 (13 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Are those painless things that fire whatever is being injected straight through the skin in use? I thought that this was the way ahead some years ago?


May be a way round the vial supply problem.
https://www.team-consulting.com/insights/preparing-for-mass-vaccination/


----------



## mjr (13 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I suspect that a visit to a fast food outlet won't really put off that journey to the supermarket,


Seems a bit rude effectively to call me a liar.



> so that's two outings rather than one. I'd imagine that fast food service might be lower risk than the big shop but it's not going to replace it. 2 catch and spread opportunities versus one.


As the pizza van would be one main meal not 10, I think the question on purely covid risk would be whether one "local" collection from a van is less than a tenth that of a supermarket shop in a nearby town. What with public (mis)behaviour here, it probably is.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (13 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Seems a bit rude effectively to call me a liar.
> 
> 
> As the pizza van would be one main meal not 10, I think the question on purely covid risk would be whether one "local" collection from a van is less than a tenth that of a supermarket shop in a nearby town. What with public (mis)behaviour here, it probably is.


Sorry, I understood your post to mean that it would delay your shopping by a day but you'd still need to do your shopping. And doing both will increase spread and catch opportunities. I don't have a moral principle on this, just a theoretical idea about what the risks might be. There's even an argument for diversity in lockdown, so a pizza might do you more good than the slight risk of increasing risk to self and others. Otherwise we might all risk going bonkers.


----------



## BoldonLad (14 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> A pizza van is visiting my village. I'd have to preorder and book a collection time. Does the panel think it is worse to interact with people and to eat high-fat food, or to refuse to support a small business and to have go food shopping almost a day sooner? WWYD?


Have yourself a socially distanced pizza, hope you enjoy it.


----------



## fossyant (14 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> Have yourself a socially distanced pizza, hope you enjoy it.



Live for the day, might die of covid tomorrow !  Hmmm pizza !!! 

This thread is getting more and more bonkers !


----------



## kingrollo (14 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> Have yourself a socially distanced pizza, hope you enjoy it.



Pizza or Pfizer !


----------



## cookiemonster (14 Jan 2021)

Maybe I'm missing something but how is this possible in a population of 5milion?

https://www.thenational.scot/news/1...wn-curbs-tightened-death-toll-exceeds-17-000/

(BTW, a typo from The National as that figure is 7000)

The total death toll in Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea - 5614.


----------



## rockyroller (14 Jan 2021)

the US CDC predicting that 4,000 Americans will die, EVERY DAY, for the next 3 weeks, that's 92,000 new deaths in the next 3 weeks. (over 4,700 yesterday)


----------



## mjr (14 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> Live for the day, might die of covid tomorrow !  Hmmm pizza !!!
> 
> This thread is getting more and more bonkers !


I'll put you down as anti-pizza, but clearer answers would be better.


----------



## classic33 (14 Jan 2021)

cookiemonster said:


> Maybe I'm missing something but how is this possible in a population of 5milion?
> 
> https://www.thenational.scot/news/1...wn-curbs-tightened-death-toll-exceeds-17-000/
> 
> ...


I'll say it's due to a sense of entitlement, coupled with a "no-ones going to tell me what I can and cannot do" attitude. Along with a lot of amateurs making their feelings known on what the rest of us should be doing.

Similar sized population


----------



## mjr (14 Jan 2021)

classic33 said:


> I'll say it's due to a sense of entitlement, coupled with a "no-ones going to tell me what I can and cannot do" attitude. Along with a lot of amateurs making their feelings known on what the rest of us should be doing.
> 
> Similar sized population


You've fallen for the hate-thy-neighbour play too? gov.scot have seemed almost (but not quite) as late to every step as gov.uk, although sometimes that is because their hands are tied by gov.uk in some way.


----------



## classic33 (14 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> You've fallen for the hate-thy-neighbour play too? gov.scot have seemed almost (but not quite) as late to every step as gov.uk, although sometimes that is because their hands are tied by gov.uk in some way.


I've fallen for nothing lad.
In the last eight months I've had more people telling me what they feel I should be doing, even if they aren't doing what they expect me to do. Often in the street, and nearly always people I've never spoken to before.

Personally, I couldn't care less about any silly point scoring. I'm viewing this "minor irritation" of the last 303 days in the long term. I'm also looking at it from a "me" perspective. In that long term health conditions are now under my control only, there's no help at present*.

I see family groups out doing shopping, the drunks meeting up as usual, both sets ignoring official advice.

*This will only restart when the present situation is under some control. By this time it may well be too late for me. But there are others a lot worse off than me at this moment in time.


----------



## DaveReading (14 Jan 2021)

rockyroller said:


> the US CDC predicting that 4,000 Americans will die, EVERY DAY, for the next 3 weeks, that's 92,000 new deaths in the next 3 weeks. (over 4,700 yesterday)



What a legacy for Biden to inherit ...


----------



## kingrollo (14 Jan 2021)

Is the new variant really a mutation ? - or has the social distancing introduced a a bit of natural selection ? 

As we wear masks and social distance - the virus can't spread as easily, so the strains that can't spread wither and die, however the strains that continue spread despite social distancing become the more dominant strains ? - Have we un wittingly created a super virus ?


----------



## BoldonLad (14 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Is the new variant really a mutation ? - or has the social distancing introduced a a bit of natural selection ?
> 
> As we wear masks and social distance - the virus can't spread as easily, so the strains that can't spread wither and die, however the strains that continue spread despite social distancing become the more dominant strains ? - Have we un wittingly created a super virus ?



Possibly, maybe we should have just let nature take its course?


----------



## Rocky (14 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> Possibly, maybe we should have just let nature take its course?


I don't think so....that's not how mutations occur (as hypothesized). They would have occurred naturally any way.


----------



## BoldonLad (14 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> I don't think so....that's not how mutations occur (as hypothesized). They would have occurred naturally any way.


Wasn’t really a serious suggestion, but, presumably, Darwinism applies to viruses as well as other life forms?


----------



## Rocky (14 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> Wasn’t really a serious suggestion, but, presumably, Darwinism applies to viruses as well as other life forms?


It depends on what you mean by Darwinism and what induces a virus needs to mutate. Incidentally one of the new strains of Covid has arisen in Brazil - not a country known for its masking and social distancing policies.


----------



## gavroche (14 Jan 2021)

In 1918, 50 million people worldwide died from the Spanish flu. It lasted 2 years and there was no vaccine then so, in theory, we can assume that Covid will last about the same length of time and wipe itself out. Having the vaccine might speed up things a bit but even then, I think we can't expect any real improvement until August/September. In the meantime, we will have to remain vigilant and respect the rules of keeping distances, wearing masks and avoid meeting others.


----------



## randynewmanscat (14 Jan 2021)

I have not read through the posts here for a good while so I don't know if my question has been addressed already.
In England I used to donate blood in one of the large function rooms at a hotel in town. Hundreds of people called in through the day to do the same.
Also I went for a scan at a mobile clinic set up in a sports centre car park and an endoscopy in a rubgy club car park of all places.
Has there been a drive to get people into large places mostly going unused at the moment? I'm listening to the radio, Jeremy Vine, there are people burbling about whether there is a demand for all hours vaccination, I cannot see the need if there are very large spaces available.


----------



## tom73 (14 Jan 2021)

gavroche said:


> In 1918, 50 million people worldwide died from the Spanish flu. It lasted 2 years and there was no vaccine then so, in theory, we can assume that Covid will last about the same length of time and wipe itself out. Having the vaccine might speed up things a bit but even then, I think we can't expect any real improvement until August/September. In the meantime, we will have to remain vigilant and respect the rules of keeping distances, wearing masks and avoid meeting others.


Much of what is how things should basically pan out but sadly your forgetting covid's very helpful friend called Boris and his mate call Matt.


----------



## gavroche (14 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Much of what is how things should basically pan out but sadly your forgetting covid's very helpful friend called Boris and his mate call Matt.


Nature will prevail, despite those two.


----------



## kingrollo (14 Jan 2021)

No stats today ? - anyone know why ?


----------



## midlife (14 Jan 2021)

Number of infections released, about 48000 iirc, but no deaths data . BBC simply reported delays.


----------



## mjr (14 Jan 2021)

Anyone else wondering if Excel has broken again?


----------



## vickster (14 Jan 2021)

Just got an alert
UK coronavirus deaths rise by 1,248 - with 48,682 new cases


----------



## midlife (14 Jan 2021)

1248 deaths according to Sky News bulletin just now


----------



## shep (14 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> Wasn’t really a serious suggestion, but, presumably, Darwinism applies to viruses as well as other life forms?


I hope it's not a 'Leavirus'.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (14 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> 1248 deaths according to Sky News bulletin just now


It's still a record for a Thursday, though not by much. (Because the reporting system is so inconsistent, indeed bad on some days of the week, it seems to make more sense to look at where we have been on previous Thursdays.) The 'though not by much' is probably a bit of less bad news.


----------



## DaveReading (14 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> it seems to make more sense to look at where we have been on previous Thursdays.)



Actually it makes no sense at all to compare any one day with any other. That won't tell you anything.


----------



## tom73 (15 Jan 2021)

In the mean time the other ONS covid death figure hit 100,000 the human and social cost of this total balls up is off the scale.


----------



## Ajax Bay (15 Jan 2021)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_vAQyVlXzU

Go to 11:45 for an alternate view.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (15 Jan 2021)

Turns out that not just being a right wing politician is bad for your health, but even being in the same room a a right wing politician is bad for your health.

This is a fact for the US, no an opinion. Wonder what the UK data would show?


View: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1349743403735547907


----------



## mjr (15 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Go to 11:45 for an alternate view.


 What a load of assumptions and handwaving (well, pointer-waving), including what seems like obvious mistakes. For example, there's a comparison of N & S Dakota soon after 11:45 and he draws a line across the graph and then says that was when masks were compelled in one and it should have had an immediate effect but it didn't therefore masks are useless. Even ignoring all the other problems with drawing that conclusion, has he not noticed that people don't die immediately when infected?

That's far from the only dodgy claim I noticed. I've not watched the rest because life is too short. File it under "lemons", please.


----------



## midlife (15 Jan 2021)

cases and deaths up from yesterday, can't read much into a single days figures but wonder what Boris will say at todays evening press conference?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (15 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> cases and deaths up from yesterday, can't read much into a single days figures but wonder what Boris will say at todays evening press conference?



Surely that wasn't a surprise?

Just covered by Whitty in the briefing and we should see numbers falling very soon - he sounds on the money to me.


----------



## mjr (15 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Surely that wasn't a surprise?
> 
> Just covered by Whitty in the briefing and we should see numbers falling very soon - he sounds on the money to me.


Whitty also said hospitalisations will increase for a week and deaths for almost two.

FT's Seb asking whether they will open up before under-50s vaccinated - Boris ducked - how excess vaccine doses are being used by GPs - Whitty backs GPs to decide sensibly as needed - and why UK public education isn't explaining that indoor unventilated spaces are the biggest danger - Vallance ducked.


----------



## tom73 (15 Jan 2021)

Boris is going all out on hand washing and ducking the elephant in the room ie ventilation but totally bypasses it. Not a surprise the guidelines don't say much either. At least valance has just publicly blown Boris's cover and talked about it. Never mind Boris we have plenty of chocolate fire guards AKA plastic screens around the place.


----------



## Ajax Bay (15 Jan 2021)

"Indoors, indoors, indoors, ventilation maximised" Prof Patrick Vallance 15 Jan press conference
Let's get outside and ride, in the wind.


----------



## midlife (15 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Surely that wasn't a surprise?
> 
> Just covered by Whitty in the briefing and we should see numbers falling very soon - he sounds on the money to me.



Numbers are not a surprise, I was just wondering what Boris might do. Not a lot....


----------



## tom73 (15 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> Numbers are not a surprise, I was just wondering what Boris might do. Not a lot....


He stared ok pointing out how bad it is and the need to be safe. But then shot that out the window with the look at how good we are on the vaccine and went quickly downhill from then.


----------



## Ajax Bay (15 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> went quickly downhill from then.


I do look forward to you lauding the 'uphill' when the figures allow. Today was not a day for 'doing' anything (please suggest 'uphill' options open to government). We need to see the new cases (7 day average not day to day) dropping around the country as well as nationally and in the SE, and (as briefed) might hope that admissions will fall a week later, numbers in hospital to fall with another lag, and sadly deaths to take time to reach a negative second derivative (with time). I predict that the daily death rate will drop off a cliff in late February (because of less transmission and effective vaccination of 88% of citizens who would normally succumb).
Very hard yards for the NHS till then. Are we not fortunate in this country that we have a national HS and are a relative prosperous nation able to fund it to such a level?
The tunnel maybe uphill, and curving but we can see some light round the corner.


----------



## pawl (15 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> Numbers are not a surprise, I was just wondering what Boris might do. Not a lot....





I fealfor the nurses and others that work twelve hour shifts probably without proper breaks When I was nursing we worked three shifts of eight hour shifts I have never had to work a twelve hour shift Odd occasions I did a double shift due to staff shortages


----------



## SpokeyDokey (16 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Whitty also said hospitalisations will increase for a week and deaths for almost two.
> 
> FT's Seb asking whether they will open up before under-50s vaccinated - Boris ducked - how excess vaccine doses are being used by GPs - Whitty backs GPs to decide sensibly as needed - and why UK public education isn't explaining that indoor unventilated spaces are the biggest danger - Vallance ducked.



Which of the above para's was a direct response to my post please?


----------



## accountantpete (16 Jan 2021)

1/2 an inch of snow and the South can't cope!

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-luton-rapid-testing-centres-closed-because-of-snow-12189320


----------



## SpokeyDokey (16 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> Numbers are not a surprise, I was just wondering what Boris might do. *Not a lot....*



Sorry, not understanding this comment - seems to me that there is an awful lot of Government driven activity on the go right now. 

The individual actions may not fit everyone's exact viewpoint re what should be done but to say not a lot is stretching things imo.

In specific response to the rising number of deaths and the infection caseload it has been obvious for some time that these will continue to rise until the latest lockdown bites (looks like it is in some areas eg London, SE & E) as well as the vaccination rollout beginning to impact on the primary groups fueling the number of deaths.


----------



## Ajax Bay (16 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> FT's Seb asking whether they will open up before under-50s vaccinated - Boris ducked


Question not answered because a reasonable answer would be so easily miscontrued/mis-reported. Though the answer is 'yes', that is not the message that our leaders wish to convey, because some people will immediately fail to maintain the good behaviours seen so far this year.
Decision on "opening up" will depend on reported new cases falling to a threshold below which our NHS can reasonably cope (reinstating all the 'normal' life saving and life enhancing medical activities). The NHS is always stressed in the winter, and COVID-19 has added to the strain, to the detriment of all else.
The JCVI defined first 9 groups need to be vaccinated before any (normal) under 50s receive their first dose. And there will be a substantial pause those people getting their first dose because. In April and May most of the vaccination capacity will be taken up giving Groups 1-9 their second jab (about 20M so 7-10 weeks). Only thereafter will the under 50s be called forward. I am making the assumption that the programme will reach and then maintain 2M per week. It may well be that we can do better, but that will also depend on supply.


----------



## midlife (16 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Sorry, not understanding this comment - seems to me that there is an awful lot of Government driven activity on the go right now.
> 
> The individual actions may not fit everyone's exact viewpoint re what should be done but to say not a lot is stretching things imo.
> 
> In specific response to the rising number of deaths and the infection caseload it has been obvious for some time that these will continue to rise until the latest lockdown bites (looks like it is in some areas eg London, SE & E) as well as the vaccination rollout beginning to impact on the primary groups fueling the number of deaths.



I was expecting something more motivational to hammer the messages home, maybe I was just grumpy after a crappy day at work.....


----------



## mjr (16 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Which of the above para's was a direct response to my post please?


The first gave the rest of Whitty's forecast, for completeness. The second was another part of the same event that I felt may interest readers.


----------



## mjr (16 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> "Indoors, indoors, indoors, ventilation maximised" Prof Patrick Vallance 15 Jan press conference
> Let's get outside and ride, in the wind.


Reminds me of this. Not their usual satire. More just annoyed:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/RochdaleHerald/status/1346319065523097601


----------



## Ajax Bay (16 Jan 2021)

Well actually the inside/outside lock down / seasonal variation cause/effect is a theme in the video I linked which you decried.
Keep taking the Vitamin D3.


----------



## mjr (16 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Well actually the inside/outside lock down / seasonal variation cause/effect is a theme in the video I linked which you decried.
> Keep taking the Vitamin D3.


Being correct on one aspect wouldn't make the wrong bits right. It may not have drawn the correct conclusion for sound reasons - I don't know as it wasn't in the bit you cited and I would probably punch the screen if I watched much more of it!


----------



## MontyVeda (16 Jan 2021)

I'm probably going to go and get myself tested before long... now that those of us with no symptoms can. I work in a supermarket and could be one of the supposed one-in-three asymptomatic carriers... but is that one-in-three claim correct?


----------



## midlife (16 Jan 2021)

Last time I looked it was about 1 in 5 or about 20%, not sure about the new variant though?


----------



## Ajax Bay (16 Jan 2021)

Don't know where you've got the one in three 'claim' from but seems high to me - link? That there is a significant proportion who are infected but asymptomatic, is based on the positive ratio of those tested (ie who get tested for symptomatic reasons (%age not known) as well as routinely ie work, school, entering hospital for stuff other than COVID-19). The powers that be make the assumption that the higher the ratio, the higher of wider asymptomatic infection in the wild.
This is not advice to get tested nor advice not to get tested.


----------



## MontyVeda (16 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> *Don't know where you've got the one in three 'claim' from but seems high to me - link?* That there is a significant proportion who are infected but asymptomatic, is based on the positive ratio of those tested (ie who get tested for symptomatic reasons (%age not known) as well as routinely ie work, school, entering hospital for stuff other than COVID-19). The powers that be make the assumption that the higher the ratio, the higher of wider asymptomatic infection in the wild.
> This is not advice to get tested nor advice not to get tested.


it seems high to me too.

The Government are making the claim on FB and their own website... https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

this is one of several ad-things doing the rounds on FB...








Does 'act like you've got it' mean we should all self-isolate... since that's what I'd be doing if i had it?


----------



## mjr (16 Jan 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> Does 'act like you've got it' mean we should all self-isolate... since that's what I'd be doing if i had it?


Yep, the government have just told everyone to throw a ten day sickie. They have lost the farking plot again.


----------



## DCLane (16 Jan 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> Does 'act like you've got it' mean we should all self-isolate... since that's what I'd be doing if i had it?



Given I've been working from home since March it'd not make much of a difference.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (17 Jan 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> Does 'act like you've got it' mean we should all self-isolate... since that's what I'd be doing if i had it?


Since March my behaviour has been driven by the firm conviction that everyone else has got it.


----------



## tom73 (17 Jan 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> I'm probably going to go and get myself tested before long... now that those of us with no symptoms can. I work in a supermarket and could be one of the supposed one-in-three asymptomatic carriers... but is that one-in-three claim correct?


Don’t take the result of a rapid flow test as much comfort. They have a crap false negative rate miss over 40% of positive cases. Inc a high number of the mostly infectious cases and unless a positive result is followed up by PCR test. The system can’t pass results onto T&T.


----------



## DaveReading (17 Jan 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> I'm probably going to go and get myself tested before long... now that those of us with no symptoms can. I work in a supermarket and could be one of the supposed one-in-three asymptomatic carriers... but is that one-in-three claim correct?



The 1 in 3 ratio (the proportion of Covid-infected people who don't display any symptoms) shouldn't be influenced by where you work, although the odds of you being infected in the first place (around 1 in 50 of the population) might.

All things being equal, the probability of someone picked at random from the population being both (a) infected and (b) symptomless will be the product of those probabilities, i.e. around 1 in 150.


----------



## Ajax Bay (17 Jan 2021)

DaveReading said:


> the probability of someone picked at random from the population being both (a) infected and (b) symptomless will be the product of those probabilities, i.e. around 1 in 150


Dave that's well spotted (am annoyed with myself for not making that 'More or Less' step). Even at 1 in 3, and 2M (infected (cfm by test) at any one time - gross overestimate) in 60M (population) that's 1 in 90.


----------



## MontyVeda (17 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Don’t take the result of a rapid flow test as much comfort. They have a crap *false negative rate miss over 40% of positive cases*. Inc a high number of the mostly infectious cases and unless a positive result is followed up by PCR test. The system can’t pass results onto T&T.


source?


----------



## Rocky (17 Jan 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> source?


https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4941


----------



## classic33 (17 Jan 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> source?


Those actually running the test station.


classic33 said:


> Another test today, quicker results, negative again(Luck or doing things right?).
> 
> One hesitation on this latest test, it's only 50% as accurate (At best) as the previous ones, which are 90% accurate.
> Are they rushing tests through?


----------



## midlife (17 Jan 2021)

Like most patient facing staff I lateral flow test twice a week. Its mainly to pick up asymptomatic carriers. If we have symptoms then we phone occupational health for a PCR not use the lateral flow.

We know it has high false negative but better than nothing.


----------



## tom73 (17 Jan 2021)

DOHS own official report into the Liverpool pilot which only last week Hancock shot down as wrong.
Even the MHRA won’t approve them for most thing the government want to use them as due error being too high. The plan for schools is no go only last week the MHRA formal told them they are not licensed for weekly testing. Plenty of experts on testing don‘t like them either.


----------



## tom73 (17 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> Like most patient facing staff I lateral flow test twice a week. Its mainly to pick up asymptomatic carriers. If we have symptoms then we phone occupational health for a PCR not use the lateral flow.
> 
> We know it has high false negative but better than nothing.


That’s one thing problem is they are sold as a “you don’t have COVID so off you” like what happen with students. Not as a small part of test options.


----------



## mjr (18 Jan 2021)

Variant B117 closes a care home near Ypres and 2 schools near Antwerp, with 5000 people Quarantined. https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgi...two-schools-as-virus-sweeps-through-flanders/

Here we (they) go


----------



## SpokeyDokey (19 Jan 2021)

Bookings up at Easyjet - the month of May looking popular for holidays in 2021:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55709110

Even optimistically I think expecting to get away in May is a bit premature.


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Jan 2021)

I saw the easy jet thing. Just plain stupid. No pun intended.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Bookings up at Easyjet - the month of May looking popular for holidays in 2021:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55709110
> 
> Even optimistically I think expecting to get away in May is a bit premature.


A case of desire trumping reason, I suspect. And Booking. com still send me emails hoping to boost that desire. Straight into the bin for mine.


----------



## tom73 (19 Jan 2021)

Hancock is isolating again ... Every cloud and all that.


----------



## BoldonLad (19 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Bookings up at Easyjet - the month of May looking popular for holidays in 2021:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55709110
> 
> Even optimistically I think expecting to get away in May is a bit premature.



I have not looked at the small print of the various holiday company offerings, we do not do package holidays or "fly to" holidays. But, if there is no penalty in booking (ie you do not lose your money if travel is not possible), why would someone who does take this type of holiday not book? When the "brakes" are eventually released, these is going to be a lot of pent-up demand, and the law of supply and demand means prices will rise.


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Jan 2021)

Think summer might be a bit optimistic myself.


----------



## mjr (19 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Hancock is isolating again ... Every cloud and all that.


Unless it is from his own household, how shoot is Hancock at following the barrier measures to get exposed a second time during a lockdown? It is not like he delivers front line health care. Am I missing something?


----------



## CanucksTraveller (19 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Hancock is isolating again ... Every cloud and all that.



Is it cycnical of me to put it out there that the only people I've ever heard of who have been pinged by Track and Trace are ministers? 
I mean, the cynical man might think it's as if they're trying to sell the idea that Track and Trace is even a thing, or even a useful thing. 

I've not heard of a single person in my life (work or social) who has been asked to self isolate via Track and Trace. I'd sort of assumed it was no longer a thing.



mjr said:


> Unless it is from his own household, how shoot is Hancock at following the barrier measures to get exposed a second time during a lockdown? It is not like he delivers front line health care. Am I missing something?



See above. I half wonder if he "gets pinged" on purpose to sell the message that the system works. A useful idiot in other words. 
Otherwise yes, he seems to get exposed a lot!


----------



## BoldonLad (19 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Unless it is from his own household, how shoot is Hancock at following the barrier measures to get exposed a second time during a lockdown? It is not like he delivers front line health care. *Am I missing something?*



Perhaps he goes cycling beyond his "local" area?

Seriously, perhaps, yet another example of our lack of understanding of which behaviours are risky?


----------



## BoldonLad (19 Jan 2021)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Is it cycnical of me to put it out there that the only people I've ever heard of who have been pinged by Track and Trace are ministers?
> I mean, the cynical man might think it's as if they're trying to sell the idea that Track and Trace is even a thing, or even a useful thing.
> 
> I've not heard of a single person in my life (work or social) who has been asked to self isolate via Track and Trace. I'd sort of assumed it was no longer a thing.



Sorry to disappoint you. My second youngest daughter got "pinged" by test and trace, about two months ago.

She did the self isolation thing.

However, the system was so in-ept, ie numerous phone calls which were duplicates, that she then deleted the app from her phone.


----------



## FishFright (19 Jan 2021)

Word beating Covid Policies


----------



## tom73 (19 Jan 2021)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Is it cycnical of me to put it out there that the only people I've ever heard of who have been pinged by Track and Trace are ministers?
> I mean, the cynical man might think it's as if they're trying to sell the idea that Track and Trace is even a thing, or even a useful thing.
> 
> I've not heard of a single person in my life (work or social) who has been asked to self isolate via Track and Trace. I'd sort of assumed it was no longer a thing.
> ...



The big thing people need to remember him and his like are more than able to afford to do it. 1000's can't so don't equally they most likely have plenty of space at home to do it safely again 1000's can't so have no hope of passing covid onto other at home. who in turn can unwittingly pass it into the wider society.
T&T is very much still on going and will be needed even more as the vaccine is rolled out yet even now it's still working and has issues. 
It's one of many thing that the government is hiding in the vaccine news smoke screen.


----------



## fossyant (19 Jan 2021)

There was a minister on TV this morning avoiding answering how bad our infection rates were, and kept going on about the vaccine roll out. He got ripped into by the presenters.

Then followed by an anti vaxxer - wouldn't have the vaccine as she already had covid, she'd got a relative very ill with it now, but was blaming not having it on potential fertility issues - yet another bit of bad information going about. This virus will not be going away any time soon.


----------



## glasgowcyclist (19 Jan 2021)

It's not track & trace, that's Parcelforce. 😡

It's TEST & TRACE.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (19 Jan 2021)

glasgowcyclist said:


> It's not track & trace, that's Parcelforce. 😡
> 
> It's TEST & TRACE.


Actually it’s Test and Protect here


----------



## Edwardoka (19 Jan 2021)

glasgowcyclist said:


> It's not track & trace, that's Parcelforce. 😡
> 
> It's TEST & TRACE.


Judging by the numbers, "Share & Enjoy" is a more likely name for any covid policy drawn up by the UK authorities.

(Three medium-sized deciduous forests to whomever gets the reference.)


----------



## matticus (19 Jan 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> Judging by the numbers, "Share & Enjoy" is a more likely name for any covid policy drawn up by the UK authorities.
> 
> (Three medium-sized deciduous forests to whomever gets the reference.)


I got "Share and Enjoy"* - but if the forests comment is a reference, it went over _my _head, sorry!


*p.s. you could have extended the quote:
"Why don't you share this with your friends? :-) "
"Because I want to keep them!  "


----------



## Edwardoka (19 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> I got "Share and Enjoy"* - but if the forests comment is a reference, it went over _my _head, sorry!
> 
> 
> *p.s. you could have extended the quote:
> ...


You got the reference, although "Share and Enjoy" applied to more than just the drink almost - but not quite - entirely unlike tea.


Spoiler



It was the corporate slogan of the entire Sirius Cybernetics Corporation, alongside "Go stick your head in a pig" due to a translation error. 

The "forests" reference in my post was the Golgafrincham B Ark colonists who used leaves as currency and the resulting runaway inflation led to a going rate of "something like three deciduous forests buying one ship's peanut"... and their solution to solve the inflation was to burn down all the forests.


----------



## matticus (19 Jan 2021)

Oh yeah - I'd forgotten about the leaves as currency


----------



## mjr (19 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> The big thing people need to remember him and his like are more than able to afford to do it.


One trusts Hancock is on statutory sick pay while isolating, to show solidarity with the workers(!)


----------



## mjr (19 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> Sorry to disappoint you. My second youngest daughter got "pinged" by test and trace, about two months ago.
> 
> She did the self isolation thing.
> 
> However, the system was so in-ept, ie numerous phone calls which were duplicates, that she then deleted the app from her phone.


I know someone pinged too, but they are a local Conservative activist, so maybe more likely to use the app and less likely to tell me if it farks up!


----------



## BoldonLad (19 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> I know someone pinged too, but they are *a local Conservative activist,* so maybe more likely to use the app and less likely to tell me if it farks up!



You know a local Conservative Activist, @mjr, and, you are willing to admit it, I am shocked 

Daughter did not subsequently test positive by the way.


----------



## mjr (19 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> You know a local Conservative Activist, @mjr, and, you are willing to admit it, I am shocked


Cycling and brexit both cross party lines and it's rural Norfolk so there's probably almost always one within a shoe's throw!


----------



## mjr (19 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Variant B117 closes a care home near Ypres and 2 schools near Antwerp, with 5000 people Quarantined. https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgi...two-schools-as-virus-sweeps-through-flanders/
> 
> Here we (they) go


Antwerp area outbreak traced to ski holiday followed by ignoring a positive test result during the quarantine on return and sending the kids to school anyway! 

The Ypres area outbreak has spread to local schools and islation and mass PCR testing of children now underway.

91 cases of B117 detected in Belgium so far and 7 of the other variants. Overall case numbers remain stable, though, with wave 3 yet to start. More mask usage education is being deployed.


----------



## midlife (19 Jan 2021)

Reported death toll today very sobering....over 1600


----------



## DCLane (19 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Antwerp area outbreak traced to ski holiday followed by ignoring a positive test result during the quarantine on return and sending the kids to school anyway!



Which is back to a selfish individual being the cause of the outbreak. Too many of those have resulted in far too many deaths. And will continue to do so.


----------



## tom73 (19 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> Reported death toll today very sobering....over 1600


Taking overall figure to 90,000 
The fall out from this just becomes ever more horrific and to think it need never to have got to this.


----------



## MntnMan62 (19 Jan 2021)

The US is now at over 408,000 deaths total. That reresents about twice the number of deaths than the next country, Brazil. Insane that Trump isn't in jail simply for his failure to lead the world's weatlhiest country in managing the pandemic. Why in God's name would we even consider giving him a military sendoff? For a piece of garbage like that? Sure, we can give him a military sendoff, as the military presides over his execution. Obviously won't happen but there is a lot of rationale to suggest that is what he deserves.


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Jan 2021)

Government continue to try to carry on as normal and the population just don't seem to be able to get the idea it can and will kill you indiscriminately.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> Reported death toll today very sobering....over 1600


Meanwhile Twyain cancels a light and lantern festival - because of 4 (yes 4 !!!) cases


----------



## kingrollo (19 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Taking overall figure to 90,000
> The fall out from this just becomes ever more horrific and to think it need never to have got to this.



Yeah but us Brits wanted Christmas and our freedom !


----------



## kingrollo (19 Jan 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Government continue to try to carry on as normal and the population just don't seem to be able to get the idea it can and will kill you indiscriminately.



???? How so ? - as per pri Patel - UK complaince with lockdown measures is 92%.....I doubt you are going to improve those stats.


----------



## mjr (19 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Yeah but us Brits wanted Christmas and our freedom !


In mid-December, once case numbers looked out of control, opinion polls said most Brits did not want the insane Christmas bubble plan any more! Example

(edited to put more words in to clarify)


----------



## mjr (19 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Taking overall figure to 90,000
> The fall out from this just becomes ever more horrific and to think it need never to have got to this.


Merry Christmas.


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Jan 2021)

Pretty sure 92% is nowhere near an actual reality.


----------



## kingrollo (19 Jan 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Pretty sure 92% is nowhere near an actual reality.



Well if you are going to dispute official figures, quoted by a cabinet minister - then there's no debate to be had.


----------



## FishFright (19 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Well if you are going to dispute official figures, quoted by a cabinet minister - then there's no debate to be had.



If you don't you'll be lead down a lane of undisputed lies.


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Jan 2021)

Ah, if it's a Cabinet Minister my mind is at rest. 🤣 It really doesn't.


----------



## tom73 (19 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Yeah but us Brits wanted Christmas and our freedom !


We also don’t do what works as that’s only for “Johnnie Foreigner“


----------



## mjr (19 Jan 2021)

DCLane said:


> Which is back to a selfish individual being the cause of the outbreak. Too many of those have resulted in far too many deaths. And will continue to do so.


I am not sure I will find the report again, but I think the headteacher of one of the schools also blamed the tracking system for not telling them that they had a student who should not attend due to quarantine, which apparently is normal under their public health law. Not sure whether it would be here?


----------



## kingrollo (19 Jan 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Ah, if it's a Cabinet Minister my mind is at rest. 🤣 It really doesn't.



My point was she is unlikely to quote an inflated high figure of compliance.


----------



## nickyboy (19 Jan 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Ah, if it's a Cabinet Minister my mind is at rest. 🤣 It really doesn't.


IPSOS independent polling







According to the polling, compliance is as high now as it's ever been since polling started. Presumably the 92% is another poll which lumps the "completely" and "mostly" compliant (which is 94% in this poll)


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Jan 2021)

McDonalds the new exercise gym

https://apple.news/AuSgGxrRQTPmjEgQBqYk7ww


----------



## nickyboy (19 Jan 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Pretty sure 92% is nowhere near an actual reality.



To misquote Paul Simon:

We all see what we want to see, and disregard the rest


----------



## Adam4868 (19 Jan 2021)

There's no sugar coating what a disaster it's been.
Prof Andrew Hayward (on SAGE) tells @BBCPM that he thinks deaths won’t fall substantially for weeks yet, partly due the to the fact infections are falling amongst the old more slowly than amongst the young: “We have one of the worst coronavirus problems in the world right now.”
The timing of lockdowns,eat out to help out,Christmas...it's been a disastor.Yes the vaccination programme is looking promising but it doesn't make the death toll any better.When will they actually hold their hands up and take some accountability ?


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## Ajax Bay (19 Jan 2021)

Adam4868 said:


> Yes the vaccination programme is looking promising but it doesn't make the death toll any better.When will they actually hold their hands up and take some accountability ?


No vaccination programme in the world can "make the death toll" (past) any better.
"take some accountability" Perhaps you could describe what sort of "accountability" you had in mind? 'They' have accounted and given reasons for their 'actions' and inactions. You may think the reasons given flawed.


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## Oldhippy (19 Jan 2021)

One of the main problems I believe is the trying to still keep things 'normal' and open for business. Economy has more value than life. Until people from Boris down to the bloke who pops to mickey d's for a burger realise we may have to totally re evaluate how we live not much will change.


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## gbb (19 Jan 2021)

And at a local level, about 3 weeks ago a neighbour reported her neighbour for having a gathering of around 10 extra adults in their house. Police attended, people sent out promptly.

Tonight, the same house, dead opposite mine, pushing 20 people In there, barbeque was lit earlier. We called the police this time and their neighbour did too.
Police attended, people left.

10 minutes or so ago, a bout 6 of them sauntered back into the house.
Neighbour called the police again.

...on the day over 1600 people died.
This is exactly the same behaviour I see daily at work, leave a good proportion of our workforce on their own for 5 minutes, they just will not comply.


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## Unkraut (19 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> No vaccination programme in the world can "make the death toll" (past) any better.


I take it the point is that the government's inept handling of the virus at the beginning led to a rapid spread and all that follows from it in the form of overloaded healthcare and an excessive number of deaths especially amongst the elderly. The fact it has done well on the vaccination front, which is true, does not mean you can treat this like double-entry bookkeeping with credits and debits to decide if overall the government has done well.

Those making the decisions should be willing to say when they got things wrong rather than just claiming credit for when they go right.


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## Adam4868 (19 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> No vaccination programme in the world can "make the death toll" (past) any better.
> "take some accountability" Perhaps you could describe what sort of "accountability" you had in mind? 'They' have accounted and given reasons for their 'actions' and inactions. You may think the reasons given flawed.


The reasons given flawed ? Little bit if a understatemt.Blame the public not the goverment ? 
Interesting thread on some of the "fibs" told along the way.

View: https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1347274149274791936?s=19


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## kingrollo (19 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> No vaccination programme in the world can "make the death toll" (past) any better.
> "take some accountability" Perhaps you could describe what sort of "accountability" you had in mind? 'They' have accounted and given reasons for their 'actions' and inactions. You may think the reasons given flawed.



Is that you Dominic ?


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## kingrollo (19 Jan 2021)




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## Adam4868 (19 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> View attachment 569728


Must admit our blue bin( bottle and glass) is pushing it's limits lately.


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## classic33 (20 Jan 2021)

Globally, there have 
Been more than 95.91 million confirmed cases of coronavirus. 
Been more than 2.04 million coronavirus-related deaths.
And more than 52.85 million recoveries


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## Edwardoka (20 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Well if you are going to dispute official figures, quoted by a cabinet minister - then there's no debate to be had.


I think calling cabinet figures into question is both right and proper, given the very clear memory I have of a time when a cabinet minister said that three hundred thousand and thirty four, nine hundred and seventy four thousand tests had been carried out, despite that not actually being a number.


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## DaveReading (20 Jan 2021)

Adam4868 said:


> Must admit our blue bin( bottle and glass) is pushing it's limits lately.



Have pity on us poor souls whose kerbside recycling doesn't take glass, and who have to visit the bottle bank under cover of darkness.


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## kingrollo (20 Jan 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> I think calling cabinet figures into question is both right and proper, given the very clear memory I have of a time when a cabinet minister said that three hundred thousand and thirty four, nine hundred and seventy four thousand tests had been carried out, despite that not actually being a number.



OK - See up thread there's a whole range of stats from behavioural scientists - some showing uk compliance is even 94%.

My point is with the govt seeking to push a proportion of the blame onto non compliance - Pri Patel is unlikely to quote an inflated figure. Perhaps if we just forget Pri Patel and say that the level of compliance in the UK isn't the real problem here.


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## oldworld (20 Jan 2021)

I heard on today's news that the UK has the highest death rate per 100000 in the world. Wow! that's not something you'd want to be world beating at.
It may be a result of many things. Government slowness and errors in deciding to open up restaurants and pubs? Poor public health in parts of the UK? A NHS already short of funds? An older population? Obesity? A new variant?
I don't have an answer, possible all these plus others not mentioned.
Luckily the vaccination programme is going well and this may help in losing our unwanted first place in the death %, given time.


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## tom73 (20 Jan 2021)

The fact that the vaccine program is going on the whole well has nothing to do with how the great the government is going. It's a great testament to Primary care who know, understand local peoples needs. All working together at a local level can do when you give it the chance to do it and let them get on with it. If only the government had done the same with testing and contact tracing we'd have got on top of this long ago.


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## johnblack (20 Jan 2021)

oldworld said:


> I heard on today's news that the UK has the highest death rate per 100000 in the world. Wow! that's not something you'd want to be world beating at.
> It may be a result of many things. Government slowness and errors in deciding to open up restaurants and pubs? Poor public health in parts of the UK? A NHS already short of funds? An older population? Obesity? A new variant?
> I don't have an answer, possible all these plus others not mentioned.
> Luckily the vaccination programme is going well and this may help in losing our unwanted first place in the death %, given time.


Highest for the last seven rolling days.


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## oldworld (20 Jan 2021)

It might even out given time and the vaccinations.
It would be comforting if an independent enquiry established why the UK did so badly.
Can't see that happening, maybe an enquiry but in the government's control.


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## mjr (20 Jan 2021)

oldworld said:


> It might even out given time and the vaccinations.
> It would be comforting if an independent enquiry established why the UK did so badly.
> Can't see that happening, maybe an enquiry but in the government's control.


Maybe they will stack the enquiry but it will still need a huge Reality Distortion Field to avoid pointing out three killer mistakes:

1. ignoring WHO advice on testing back in Feb/March and wasting over a month before the U-turn on 1/2 April — as late as 26 March, Dep CMO Harries was saying the WHO advice was aimed at poor countries and not appropriate for the UK, while Germany had built over 10 times our test capacity from a similar starting point;

2. unlocking too much too fast in July/August and then being slow with lockdown 2 — too fast because case numbers were still too high, while too much at once made it impossible to tell which measures had the most effect, which should have been useful in managing later waves; and did clinging to the tiers for too long and allowing case numbers to build mean variants became much more likely?

3. Happy Christmas Covid — unlocking in early December before case numbers were low enough, holding on to the Christmas bubbles long after it was obviously an unpopular and dumb idea, and forcing schools to open. Suspicions are that these moves were for economic reasons, but it may have been a straight-out classic Johnson dither, being unwilling to face bad news.

All of these could be learned from, but there seems no sign of it, so I fear another premature unlocking and a fourth wave with a long leading edge while Boris dithers meaning another far higher death toll than a short spike.


----------



## Pale Rider (20 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Maybe they will stack the enquiry but it will still need a huge Reality Distortion Field to avoid pointing out three killer mistakes:
> 
> 1. ignoring WHO advice on testing back in Feb/March and wasting over a month before the U-turn on 1/2 April — as late as 26 March, Dep CMO Harries was saying the WHO advice was aimed at poor countries and not appropriate for the UK, while Germany had built over 10 times our test capacity from a similar starting point;
> 
> ...



All with the benefit of hindsight in what was a fast moving situation.

Each of the government policies looked reasonable enough at the time, given the competing interests they had to balance.

As more millions are vaccinated, the dramatic shifts in infection should slow, which will make planning the next moves easier.

However, there are still possibilities for which it is all but impossible to plan, such as a new variant which behaves in a markedly different way.

Good news for those whose main interest is keeping up a barrage of criticism aimed at the government.


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## mjr (20 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> All with the benefit of hindsight in what was a fast moving situation.
> 
> Each of the government policies looked reasonable enough at the time, given the competing interests they had to balance.


They didn't look reasonable to lots of us, especially that first testing denial where they were eventually pressurised by public opinion to U-turn, so I wonder what "competing interests" you mean: Serco? Capita? The former landlord of Matt Hancock's local?

It can't be the economy in general because we know that widespread poor health is bad for the economy.



> [...] Good news for those whose main interest is keeping up a barrage of criticism aimed at the government.


To be clear, I am an independent, member of no party, whose main interest is in having as few as possible of me and my friends killed or hospitalised by this virus — which results in criticising this government lately!

(edited to fix mis-edit!)


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## Ajax Bay (20 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> the government policies looked reasonable enough at the time, given the competing interests they had to balance.


Which is roughly what I was seeking from @Adam4868 when I asked what was meant by 'accountability'. Our government, nationally and regionally, is answerable to the electorate. I hope there are excellent investigations to identify lessons (including for example the effect of how the economic damage has affected life outcomes in the wider society and across the age groups) - and I sincerely hope (nay believe) this process is already in hand. But these analyses are to allow such lessons to be learned, not as a multiple-thonged weapon to beat the system up - which seems to be the unproductive thrust of some comments above.


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## deptfordmarmoset (20 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> All with the benefit of hindsight in what was a fast moving situation.
> 
> Each of the government policies looked reasonable enough at the time, given the competing interests they had to balance.
> 
> ...


Though I can't remember what happened about point no. 1, concerns about the others were all raised on this thread. With the benefit of clear sight. From previous posts of yours, it appears to be a point of departure for you that all government policies are right.


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## mjr (20 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> From previous posts of yours, it appears to be a point of departure for you that all government policies are right.


To be fair, it's a point of departure for many, but there is a range of opinion on how far right they are...


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## Ajax Bay (20 Jan 2021)

Do you mean "how right they are"?


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## roubaixtuesday (20 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Each of the government policies looked reasonable enough at the time, given the competing interests they had to balance



No, this really isn't the case. 

There was huge push back, even more so for wave 2 when we failed to learn the lessons for wave one


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## tom73 (20 Jan 2021)

. 


roubaixtuesday said:


> No, this really isn't the case.
> 
> There was huge push back, even more so for wave 2 when we failed to learn the lessons for wave one



Not forgetting the government even did a test run of what would happen. Still failed to planned or stock up on PPE. Oh and for years experts told them that it was not a good idea to sell off the long standing PHE network of labs. Building all for show nightingales hospitals with no hope of staffing them. That’s not a surprise either they’ve been told enough times we don’t have enough staff even when times are good.


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## fossyant (20 Jan 2021)

1,820 deaths today.

That's exceptionally alarming as the medics know how to deal with it better, so just imagine how bad it could be.


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## Ajax Bay (20 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Building all for show nightingales hospitals with no hope of staffing them. That’s not a surprise either they’ve been told enough times we don’t have enough staff even when times are good.


The London Nightingale has plenty of patients therein, transferred from main hospitals, during their recovery process from serious infection, thus freeing beds in the main London hospitals to provide lifesaving care to all those who need it. Believe other Nightingales are stood up and ready to receive (peak in London ahead of elsewhere). Thank goodness the Nightingales were built. Was that a good government decision?


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## Rocky (20 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> 1,820 deaths today.
> 
> That's exceptionally alarming as the medics know how to deal with it better, so just imagine how bad it could be.


I've been round the M25 today to take my 88 yr old mother to hospital (for an OP appt). The M25 traffic was as busy as it was before lockdown started in March. I was quite shocked - I really think people aren't taking this seriously.


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## nickyboy (20 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> I've been round the M25 today to take my 88 yr old mother to hospital (for an OP appt). The M25 traffic was as busy as it was before lockdown started in March. I was quite shocked - I really think people aren't taking this seriously.


It's interesting how our eyes can sometimes deceive us. We are all guilty of this. Here is the TomTom real time congestion information for London. Today's levels are lower than the average for 2020 and much lower than 2019 (which is a reasonable benchmark). Rush hour peaks were typically around 70% (however that is calculated, I think it is something to do with cars/available network capacity) but is running about 30% this week.
London traffic report | TomTom Traffic Index

Not trying to be a smart alec here. But there have been a lot of posts about how busy everywhere, lack of compliance etc etc but the data doesn't support this

Edit to add: It's very interesting if you look at comparable data for other W European capitals. Their congestion levels are very close to 2019 indicating that the reduction in traffic in London (and other UK cities) is not happening there


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## deptfordmarmoset (20 Jan 2021)

nickyboy said:


> It's interesting how our eyes can sometimes deceive us. We are all guilty of this. Here is the TomTom real time congestion information for London. Today's levels are lower than the average for 2020 and much lower than 2019 (which is a reasonable benchmark). Rush hour peaks were typically around 70% (however that is calculated, I think it is something to do with cars/available network capacity) but is running about 30% this week.
> London traffic report | TomTom Traffic Index
> 
> Not trying to be a smart alec here. But there have been a lot of posts about how busy everywhere, lack of compliance etc etc but the data doesn't support this


I don't know about the M25 but I had to do a shopping run in SE London for my mother today. It was very quiet on the roads.


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## Rocky (20 Jan 2021)

nickyboy said:


> It's interesting how our eyes can sometimes deceive us. We are all guilty of this. Here is the TomTom real time congestion information for London. Today's levels are lower than the average for 2020 and much lower than 2019 (which is a reasonable benchmark). Rush hour peaks were typically around 70% (however that is calculated, I think it is something to do with cars/available network capacity) but is running about 30% this week.
> London traffic report | TomTom Traffic Index
> 
> Not trying to be a smart alec here. But there have been a lot of posts about how busy everywhere, lack of compliance etc etc but the data doesn't support this
> ...


Interesting and thank you for posting. It certainly seems that London traffic is at lower levels.

Bur can I ask? What area does the London traffic report cover? I had a look and couldn't immediately determine. The particular journey I made today, I do regularly as I'm my mother's carer. I've been using my 'eyes' as you suggested but also using travel time as quantified by Google Maps - and it is this that I used to make my observations. I was lucky that there were no accidents or lane closures, but delays caused by sheer weight of traffic.


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## Unkraut (20 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> All with the benefit of hindsight in what was a fast moving situation.


That's not an excuse - I'm going to venture to say the entire West has to a greater or lesser extent mismanaged controlling the virus.

The countries of S E Asia have experience of this from previous pandemics, including implementing the distancing and masks, and reacted quickly. In Europe, once the pictures of what was happening in Italy were seen on the screen across the continent, it ought to have been obvious this was serious and needed a suitable response. The measures needed to slow the spread are not difficult to understand, but in a West overly obsessed with personal freedom as opposed to the collective it has proved hard to get the population to obey the rules sufficiently. Hence the endless moaning about 'face nappies' and 'healthy people being put under house arrest'. (DM commenters)

I don't think most of those here who are so critical of the government haven't been willing to give credit where it is due, namely the vaccination programme, but it does appear Johnson loused it up on a greater scale than has happened in other countries, and those Conservatives who are starting to argue for ending the lockdown might make the same mistake yet again.


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## nickyboy (20 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> Interesting and thank you for posting. It certainly seems that London traffic is at lower levels.
> 
> Bur can I ask? What area does the London traffic report cover? I had a look and couldn't immediately determine. The particular journey I made today, I do regularly as I'm my mother's carer. I've been using my 'eyes' as you suggested but also using travel time as quantified by Google Maps - and it is this that I used to make my observations. I was lucky that there were no accidents or lane closures, but delays caused by sheer weight of traffic.


Sorry I don't know. At a guess I'd say it's " Greater London" (so M25 is largely outside this definition?)

I've been using this website since the Chinese outbreak as it is quite a good metric for assessing how locked down places really are. Paris, Berlin, Madrid are really surprising. Their traffic congestion numbers are at 2019 levels suggesting that everyone is just travelling around there as normal during the daytime. Amsterdam and Rome are much more like London


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## Wobblers (20 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> All with the benefit of hindsight in what was a fast moving situation.
> 
> Each of the government policies looked reasonable enough at the time, given the competing interests they had to balance.
> 
> ...



Except this isn't actually true. Epidemiologists were almost unanimous in calling for lockdown far sooner than the government did - and the government failed to heed their advice of a short "circuit breaker" lockdown in September. I, along with roubaixtuesday and rocky predicted that the failure of test and trace would lead to a second wave. I'm saddened to have been proven correct. This is one thing that I'd have been glad to have you point out my error. The consequences of these failings are clear to see - though it must be said that few other countries have come out much better.

We have done exceptionally badly. And when I say "we", I mean all of us in the West. Even Germany, who were held up as an example of good Covid management a few months ago, have a track record that is - by any objective measure - poor. The few countries that performed well all learned from the SARS outbreak. Us, in our arrogance, treated it as some remote issue limited to mostly Asia, and dismissed it as irrelevant.

This is the result of a virus that is not exceptionally transmittable, and has a low lethality. In short, we've been extremely lucky. The next pandemic will probably be worse. Bird flu, for instance. It's still circulating, mostly in Asia. It kills over half of those it infects. Fortunately for us, human to human transmission is rare. But virulence and transmittability are controlled by different parts of the influenza genome - we are only a few mutations away from facing something that is far, far worse than Covid.

We must do better. There must - *must* - be a proper in depth and far reaching inquiry into all aspects of how the UK dealt with Covid with the sole purpose to find the mistakes, and ensure that they will not occur again. This will not be the time or place for political point scoring, or blame: it's far too important for that. The consequences of failing to learn these Covid lessons could well mean that millions will die in the next pandemic. And, make no mistake, there will be a next pandemic.


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## mjr (20 Jan 2021)

nickyboy said:


> Paris, Berlin, Madrid are really surprising. Their traffic congestion numbers are at 2019 levels suggesting that everyone is just travelling around there as normal during the daytime. Amsterdam and Rome are much more like London


Well, Paris and Madrid aren't currently locked down in daytimes, according to gov.uk, so not that surprising?


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## nickyboy (20 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Well, Paris and Madrid aren't currently locked down in daytimes, according to gov.uk, so not that surprising?


I'm sure there must be some generalised "only travel if necessary" advice in France and Spain. But traffic is at pre pandemic levels in German, French and Spanish capitals. Interesting that traffic levels are much lower in Amsterdam and Rome.
Maybe other W European countries are just as bad at adhering to advice as we are?


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## Ajax Bay (20 Jan 2021)

McWobble said:


> We must do better. There must - *must* - be a proper in depth and far reaching inquiry into all aspects of how the UK dealt with Covid with the sole purpose to find the mistakes, and ensure that they will not occur again. This will not be the time or place for political point scoring, or blame: it's far too important for that. The consequences of failing to learn these Covid lessons could well mean that millions will die in the next pandemic. And, make no mistake, there will be a next pandemic.


Very well said. I'll comment.
The output of inquiries needs to be lessons identified. Those lessons can come from both actions and inactions that had a poor outcome. And lessons where good practice was developed, possibly shared, possibly adopted widely or narrowly. We would be wise to pick up lessons from around the world too, not just from the UK experience. If this effort degenerates into political manoeuvring and assigning 'blame' the benefit will be diluted.
Once the lesson set is produced the even harder yards will be to decide which of these lessons can be learned, and which are not practical for a variety of reasons, to learn. This will require the government of the day, and of the next year/decade, to 'buy in' to the learning process and powerful 'learning organisation' which is tasked to track the extent to which each lesson has been learnt, with evidence of the changes made. Some lessons will require too much resources to 'learn'. The reasons need to be stated and shared. This is a pan-departmental issue for government and will be anything but easy. Like climate change mitigation measures, without buy-in at all levels, this process will founder.
We owe it to those who'll have to grapple with the next pandemic (more or less transmissible virus; more or less lethal) to invest effort now and see the lessons from COVID-19 are learnt.


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## classic33 (21 Jan 2021)

The foot and mouth outbreak*, and the effects of the restrictions put in place then, have been forgotten. Including the tracking system used, largely paper records, has gone.

In an area that was affected, whole areas were placed off limits to the public. This time people are ignoring the restrictions, almost fighting to get out into open areas.

*Coming up on 20 years.


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## Ajax Bay (21 Jan 2021)

classic33 said:


> The foot and mouth outbreak


Lessons:
https://visit.caerhays.co.uk/diaryimages/2020_04/Foot-and-Mouth-Disease-2001-Inquiry-Report.pdf

Major lessons to be learned:
•Maintain vigilance through international, national and local surveillance and reconnaissance.
•Be prepared with comprehensive contingency plans,building mutual trust and confidence through training and practice.
•React with speed and certainty to an emergency or escalating crisis by applying well-rehearsed crisis management procedures.
•Explain policies, plans and practices by communicating with all interested parties comprehensively, clearly and consistently in a transparent and open way.
•Respect local knowledge and delegate decisions wherever possible, without losing sight of thenational strategy.
•Apply risk assessment and cost benefit analysis within an appropriate economic model.
•Use data and information management systems that conform to recognised good practice in support of intelligence gathering and decision making. 
•Have a legislative framework that gives Government the powers needed to respond effectively to the emerging needs of a crisis.
•Base policy decisions on best available science and ensure that the processes for providing scientific advice are widely understood and trusted.
These lessons should be incorporated into a national strategy designed to:
•Keep out infectious agents of exotic disease.
•Reduce livestock vulnerability by reforms in industry practice.
•Minimise the impact of any outbreak.


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## classic33 (21 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Lessons:
> https://visit.caerhays.co.uk/diaryimages/2020_04/Foot-and-Mouth-Disease-2001-Inquiry-Report.pdf


And how often are people, on here, complaining about others travelling to/through areas they've been asked to stay away from. Doing stuff that they've been asked not to do.

Not the full report either, even on lessons learned.

Piece that still echoes today.
_"The outbreak was traumatic for everyone it touched. Many people sustained extreme working patterns, often 12 or more hours a day, seven days a week for long periods. They absorbed a great deal of emotion from farmers and others who were in considerable distress. Many staff, often at quite junior levels, endured abuse and intimidation.

Some suffered breakdowns. Some are still suffering.

Training on how to cope with stress was patchy."_

Seems as though some are still in need of learning. Long hours, extreme working patterns and abuse.


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## MntnMan62 (21 Jan 2021)

I'm curious about something. The CDC Data Tracker shows the total number of US deaths from Covid as of today to be 400,306. Meanwhile Worldometers shows the number of US deaths as of today to be 415,894. And supposedly Worldometers is using the CDC's approach at counting deaths. What gives?


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## oldworld (21 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> All with the benefit of hindsight in what was a fast moving situation.
> 
> Each of the government policies looked reasonable enough at the time, given the competing interests they had to balance.
> 
> ...


I was always taught to judge by results. However you dress it up and find excuses, this government hasn't performed well.
This government is more focused on window dressing their failures.
I'll give credit when it's due and to date they have done well on rolling out the vaccine, it's to be hoped they keep this up and the world follows suit.


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## Pale Rider (21 Jan 2021)

McWobble said:


> Except this isn't actually true. Epidemiologists were almost unanimous in calling for lockdown far sooner than the government did - and the government failed to heed their advice



The government did not fail to heed anything.

What the government did was realise bearing down too heavily on the public would be counter productive because the public wouldn't stand for it.

These are the competing interests which had to be balanced.

As it was, we had a couple of relatively half-hearted protests against Lockdown1, suggesting the government got it about right, putting on about as much restriction as the public would bear.

Easy to say 'follow the medics' advice 100%', but experience now tells us the public (as a whole) simply will not do that.

That is with the benefit of hindsight.

Thankfully, the government was savvy enough to grasp early on there would be compliance problems.

Added to that is enormous pressure from business to carry on trading, parents to keep schools open, how to raise funding for treatment/support for those unable to earn, and probably a few more.

All of which produces a decision making minefield.

The government negotiated that minefield as well as many government could have been reasonably expected to do.


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## Rocky (21 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> The government did not fail to heed anything.
> 
> What the government did was realise bearing down too heavily on the public would be counter productive because the public wouldn't stand for it.
> 
> ...


One of the major problems is the disagreement on how the Covid virus spreads. Scientists still can't agree whether it spreads through droplets or via aerosol (viral particles in the air). This leads to problems with preventative measures: washing hands and not touching face (because of fomite transmission) to face mask wearing and very strict social distancing (air transmission). As ever, very few scientists are taking time to re-evaluate their position as new evidence arises. Given this, it is hard for policymakers when they are getting such conflicting advice.

FWIW, I'm pretty certain it spreads through the air.


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## kingrollo (21 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> One of the major problems is the disagreement on how the Covid virus spreads. Scientists still can't agree whether it spreads through droplets or via aerosol (viral particles in the air). This leads to problems with preventative measures: washing hands and not touching face (because of fomite transmission) to face mask wearing and very strict social distancing (air transmission). As ever, very few scientists are taking time to re-evaluate their position as new evidence arises. Given this, it is hard for policymakers when they are getting such conflicting advice.
> 
> *FWIW, I'm pretty certain it spreads through the air.*



I think there is some movement on this school of thought now. Especially has some sources are now suggesting that uk cases are longer falling - but stable. 

Although hand washing and mask wearing are important. We didn't see any fall in cases last feb, when everyone was washing there hands like crazy. Masks more difficult as some people started them voluntary, then we were encouraged, then it became compulsory in cetain areas - ie shops.


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## Ajax Bay (21 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> [how virus spreads: droplets v aerosol] some movement on this school of thought now. Especially has some sources are now suggesting that uk cases are longer falling - but stable.
> Although hand washing and mask wearing are important. We didn't see any fall in cases last feb, when everyone was washing there hands like crazy.


"some movement on this school of thought" Share a link to a description of the discussion, please. Or maybe @Rocky can provide.
"some sources" suggest that cases are not falling. Which, please? The UK tracker suggests a 7-day average reduction of 21%.
"last feb . . . everyone was washing there hands like crazy" Pretty sure the 'wash hands' message had had very limited effect (and certainly not "crazy" washing of hands, by the leap day). Perhaps it was different in _their_ neck of the woods. 
Timeline: PHE "News story" dated 4 March: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/public-information-campaign-focuses-on-handwashing
Infection rates in February and March did anything but fall. Without hand washing, the infection rates might have increased even faster. Do you agree?
Effective, frequent and wide-spread hand washing is standard recommended practice, well explained here by the British Safety Council: https://www.britsafe.org/publicatio...-important-to-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus/
And besides, what better way to instill pride in our country (other kingdoms may apply) than to encourage regular singing of the national anthem (20 second version). 'Singing' the Lord's Prayer is one alternative option: other prayers of all faiths and none available.


----------



## classic33 (21 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> One of the major problems is the disagreement on how the Covid virus spreads. Scientists still can't agree whether it spreads through droplets or via aerosol (viral particles in the air). This leads to problems with preventative measures: washing hands and not touching face (because of fomite transmission) to face mask wearing and very strict social distancing (air transmission). As ever, very few scientists are taking time to re-evaluate their position as new evidence arises. Given this, it is hard for policymakers when they are getting such conflicting advice.
> 
> FWIW, I'm pretty certain it spreads through the air.


It was found, in closed off areas, of one of the cruise ships, seventeen days after the last person had left the area.*

*By those checking, and deep cleaning the area. 

The church pew, "Patient One" used nearly a day later. And still they can't agree/say how it's transmitted from one to the next.

Too many chiefs, not enough Indians. Those Indians left are growing very tired. Mistakes happen when people get tired and carry on working. Remember the "Take a break" adverts for drivers.


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## deptfordmarmoset (21 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> "some movement on this school of thought" Share a link to a description of the discussion, please. Or maybe @Rocky can provide.
> "some sources" suggest that cases are not falling. Which, please? The UK tracker suggests a 7-day average reduction of 21%.


The topic was raised on BBC Radio 4 this morning. The Guardian covers it here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ve-stopped-falling-major-english-survey-shows


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## johnblack (21 Jan 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The topic was raised on BBC Radio 4 this morning. The Guardian covers it here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ve-stopped-falling-major-english-survey-shows


The React report notes that because they didn't test for a month they *may* have missed the peak. "_Since there was a gap of over one month from the end of round 7b on 3rd December 2020 to beginning of round 8a on 6th January 2021 we may have missed a peak in prevalence during the intervening period. Using a constant growth model, we found no strong evidence for either growth or decay averaged across the period of round”_


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## kingrollo (21 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> "some movement on this school of thought" Share a link to a description of the discussion, please. Or maybe @Rocky can provide.
> "some sources" suggest that cases are not falling. Which, please? The UK tracker suggests a 7-day average reduction of 21%.
> "last feb . . . everyone was washing there hands like crazy" Pretty sure the 'wash hands' message had had very limited effect (and certainly not "crazy" washing of hands, by the leap day). Perhaps it was different in _their_ neck of the woods.
> Timeline: PHE "News story" dated 4 March: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/public-information-campaign-focuses-on-handwashing
> ...



Another concise post from @Ajax Bay

Your blasting of my links yesterday - is precisely why I didn't put a link in today. - the story is readily out there.

So there was no increase in handwashing last Feb - OK. -


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## byegad (21 Jan 2021)

We, Lady Byegad and myself, decided to lock ourselves down on the 15th of March.
I'd been following the news, foreign and domestic, and said we want bugger-all to do with this. Lady Byegad had been home for under 2 months following her brain abscess operation and inpatient physiotherapy and her outpatient physio appointments had just been cancelled. Due to Covid risks!
While BoJo, Wee Jimmy Crankie, the NI bird and the boring Welsh leader were struggling to decide what to do, We decided to lockdown. I said to Lady Byegad, The main enemy will be human stupidity, not the virus. How right I was!
In late March, Lady Byegad had an appointment in Newcastle RVI with her specialist, the National Lockdown was in place and the roads, and hospital were deserted. We went again in May, the outpatient area of the hospital was eerily quiet still.
In the summer we ventured out for new glasses each, 4 trips in all, hearing aids for me, 2 trips, and a new car, 2 more trips for me and one for Lady Byegad. I've since filled the car exactly twice, entailing contactless payments in the garage.
Apart from some walks around our estate, while everyone else is at work and working in the garden, and some runs out in the new car where we didn't get out near other people, we have only seen our good neighbours, sons and delivery drivers who have followed social distancing when leaving shopping for us.

Why you may ask? Well we're both vulnerable to any chest infection, and while some of our friends have taken more risks, several of them have caught the virus, and with 1 exception they caught it while out of the house for shopping or excercise. The exception caught it while in hospital for his cancer treatment. Sadly one of them has died, not my mate with cancer, miraculously! Which in our direct acquaintances makes a 1 in something under 20 death rate!

Has the gibberment handled this well? IMHO definitely not, there was ample evidence from China that this was relatively easy to catch, and it kills people.
Would the UK population responded well to a harsher regime to protect us all? We'll never know, it was never attempted.
Have other countries done better? Plainly some have!
Have some done worse? Very few and one of them had a moronic toddler in charge who at least initially thought it was 'fake news', and he should know, as a major source himself!

We're immensely grateful to all the essential workers who together with the NHS and research scientists at keeping us safe and those who will, eventually get us to whatever the new normal will turn out to be.


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## Joey Shabadoo (21 Jan 2021)

A couple of weeks ago it seemed certain that construction was going to be shut down in Scotland. I'm in touch with many of the housebuilding sites and teams of joiners. Initial prep work was being done on making structures weathertight in anticipation of being told to stop. 

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/...further-construction-restrictions-08-01-2021/


> Nicola Sturgeon said her administration is reviewing whether to order the closure of “more non-essential” business activity. From last April until June, construction work deemed “non-essential” was banned in the country.
> 
> At a briefing on Thursday, she was asked by a journalist why restrictions are different this year. She said: “To ensure that life with some degree of normality can continue we always try to strike a balance between keeping people at home and allowing certain things continue. In the last lockdown of course, non-essential construction and manufacturing didn’t operate for a period, they’ve both done an awful lot to make their operations safer, but we have to keep all of that under review.



It was something of a surprise that the briefing came and went with little more than changes to takeaways and retail.

While it's true a lot of work was done to get sites re-open last year - social distancing measures, limited numbers on site, enhanced PPE etc, at many sites that has now become a bit of a sham. The sanitising stations are lacking maintenance, the hand gel dispensers are empty and strict one way systems and distancing measures are no longer enforced. The pressure to keep sites moving means full squads are now allowed in and it's up to individual contractors to de-conflict schedules and ensure bubbles aren't breached - many don't bother. A couple of smaller sites have been closed down entirely after cases of Covid were confirmed but larger ones continue with replacements brought in for individuals who have to self-isolate. Unofficially, some sites ask contractors to switch off track and trace apps.


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## Ajax Bay (21 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Another concise post from @Ajax Bay Your blasting of my links yesterday - is precisely why I didn't put a link in today. - the story is readily out there. So there was no increase in handwashing last Feb - OK. - Thats about as credible as any of your waffling drivel I suppose.


My heart rose reading your first assessment, but.
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/f...d-be-agreeable-even-when-you-disagree.227879/
Apologies for not being concise, but needs must: the devil is often in the detail (like 'where the f*** do you get that from'?)
You may find this difficult to appreciate, @kingrollo but I am interested in the points you raise. If you think the basis of what you say is weak and sharing a link will invite people to examine what it says, I can understand why you'd not want to share the link. Thank you to @deptfordmarmoset for pointing to the Guardian article. I note the sensible use of "may" scattered liberally therein. Academics have done a bunch of work and share that, offering something for the media to bite on. On cases, the data from gov.uk on the date of sample are clear: falling. Of course "it may be that in coming days there will be a flattening off, but clearly we need to keep a watching brief” - as opposed to 'won't be a flattening off' and 'not keeping a watching brief'.
Here's the link to the Imperial College's React-1 infection survey - today's (21 Jan) report (pre-print)
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/85583
Summary (edited - to mitigate risk of albeit incredible 'waffling drivel'  accusations)
The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission study-1 (REACT-1) obtains throat and nose swabs from between 120,000 and 180,000 people in the community in England at approximately monthly intervals.
Round 8a of REACT-1 6-15 Jan . . compared with Round 7 13 Nov - 3 Dec
*Results* In round 8a, . . we found no strong evidence for either growth or decay averaged across the period (end Nov to mid Jan); based on data from a limited number of days, prevalence *may* have started to rise at the end of round 8a.
*Conclusion* During the initial 10 days of the third COVID-19 lockdown in England in January 2021, prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was very high with no evidence of decline. Until prevalence in the community is reduced substantially, health services will remain under extreme pressure and the cumulative number of lives lost during this pandemic will continue to increase rapidly.

My comment: Infection level about the same in mid January as at the end of November. And this is news? Nothing to see: move along.
You can just envisage Imperial desperately trying think of a way of spinning this monthly 'result' to get at least a bit of media coverage, given the considerable and useful work they've done. As @johnblack has said this period spanned the maximum, as I think any reasonable person would recognise - at least someone who understands that calculus is not a cloud formation.

(The current (mid Jan) daily case rate is dropping: 7-day average 20+%.) It is still high and of course the current restrictions are having a beneficial effect.
The daily cases by specimen date peaked on 1 Jan: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
The UK daily admissions peaked on 9 Jan. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Regrettably (but in line with statistical expectation) the death rate (7-day rolling average) has yet to peak, but we can hope that will be in a less than a week. And the effect of the vaccination programme (over 80s) will start contributing to the reduction in serious illness levels by the end of the month and also to NHS staffing levels as less will be off sick or self-isolating.


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## tom73 (21 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> One of the major problems is the disagreement on how the Covid virus spreads. Scientists still can't agree whether it spreads through droplets or via aerosol (viral particles in the air). This leads to problems with preventative measures: washing hands and not touching face (because of fomite transmission) to face mask wearing and very strict social distancing (air transmission). As ever, very few scientists are taking time to re-evaluate their position as new evidence arises. Given this, it is hard for policymakers when they are getting such conflicting advice.
> 
> FWIW, I'm pretty certain it spreads through the air.


Most of that is due to historic snobbery of any idea respiratory disease is via aerosol. Around the 1920 a very influential study shown that it was both. However to side with the idea that it was airborne the author was not keen on being seen to side with the any idea of dark age unclean air / vapours. So came heavy on aerosol his views expressed in the study stuck and become seen as fact. 

We have known for decades that’s not the case but his views carry on. Covid is very much in air and it’s fact case studies even from early days show this. The big issue is as Covid is new hard studies in the early days did not exist and you can’t carry out randomised tests in the middle of a pandemic. So many of the experts who felt a different view and approach was needed fell back on studies round other respiratory disease. leading to the ”show us the proof” and “that’s not covid.”

Fast forward and much of the different view points are in fact now seen as right. But to admit it means admitting they got it wrong and they don’t like that. The other big issue is WHO and they are pretty slow to change on anything.


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## Rocky (21 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Most of that is due to historic snobbery of any idea respiratory disease is via aerosol. Around the 1920 a very influential study shown that it was both. However to side with the idea that it was airborne the author was not keen on being seen to side with the any idea of dark age unclean air / vapours. So came heavy on aerosol his views expressed in the study stuck and become seen as fact.
> 
> We have known for decades that’s not the case but his views carry on. Covid is very much in air and it’s fact case studies even from early days show this. The big issue is as Covid is new hard studies in the early days did not exist and you can’t carry out randomised tests in the middle of a pandemic. So many of the experts who felt a different view and approach was needed fell back on studies round other respiratory disease. leading to the ”show us the proof” and “that’s not covid.”
> 
> Fast forward and much of the different view points are in fact now seen as right. But to admit it means admitting they got it wrong and they don’t like that. The other big issue is WHO and they are pretty slow to change on anything.


Couple that with the medical profession seeming only to accept RCT evidence and not mechanistic studies (such as lab evidence) we seem to be stuck in a rut. The WHO has refused to have experts in fluid dynamics (and airflow) sitting on its committees as they are said to 'have a conflict of interest' and instead got expert members with no expertise in the particular areas. This has led to the WHO issuing conflicting evidence and refusing to correct earlier statements (see their pronouncements on aerosol transmission and masks for example). It is little wonder that with such weak leadership, Covid deniers are exploiting this.


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## tom73 (21 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> Couple that with the medical profession seeming only to accept RCT evidence and not mechanistic studies (such as lab evidence) we seem to be stuck in a rut. The WHO has refused to have experts in fluid dynamics (and airflow) sitting on its committees as they are said to 'have a conflict of interest' and instead got expert members with no expertise in the particular areas. This has led to the WHO issuing conflicting evidence and refusing to correct earlier statements (see their pronouncements on aerosol transmission and masks for example). It is little wonder that with such weak leadership, Covid deniers are exploiting this.


No such experts are on SAGE either the biggest issue from the start of course is no matter what SAGE makes clear Boris and co are very selective on what they hear.


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## Rocky (21 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> No such experts are on SAGE either the biggest issue from the start of course is no matter what SAGE makes clear Boris and co are very selective on what they hear.


There are two professors currently advising the government who are still arguing that Covid is nothing more than flu and that the death statistics have been over-stated. One is an extreme libertarian who campaigned against encouraging health care staff (in recent years) to have a 'flu jab. With friends like these, who needs enemies.

(I'm not going to name names)


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## Ajax Bay (21 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> No such experts [in fluid dynamics (and airflow)] are on SAGE either the biggest issue from the start of course is no matter what SAGE makes clear Boris and co are very selective on what they hear.


I think you'll find Prof Cath Noakes, Professor of Environmental Engineering for Buildings, University of Leeds has been on SAGE from April, once they realised that in indoor spaces, ventilation and air flow can influence the likelihood of transmission.
Awarded an OBE in the NY Honours.
An excellent interview on BBC Radio 4's 'Life Scientific' a few days ago:
Not clear if that's the point you were trying to add value on, though I struggled with your conjoined sentence.


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## tom73 (21 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> There are two professors currently advising the government who are still arguing that Covid is nothing more than flu and that the death statistics have been over-stated. One is an extreme libertarian who campaigned against encouraging health care staff (in recent years) to have a 'flu jab. With friends like these, who needs enemies.
> 
> (I'm not going to name names)


Oh forgotten about them have an idea who


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## Ajax Bay (21 Jan 2021)

Did you forget Cath Noakes as well?


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## midlife (21 Jan 2021)

Have there been any stats released today?


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## PK99 (21 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> Have there been any stats released today?



https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/


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## midlife (21 Jan 2021)

Thanks. Forgot about that site.


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## tom73 (22 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> The government did not fail to heed anything.
> 
> What the government did was realise bearing down too heavily on the public would be counter productive because the public wouldn't stand for it.
> 
> ...



So it's all our fault and nothing at all to do with the government and delaying practical measures , continuing to publicly and privately to undermine and discredit government appointed world leading, highly respected medical professionals and scientifically qualified experts. 

Making a total balls up of public health messaging, setting up completely new and separate systems. That bypass already well testing and effective ones. With a soul goal of allowing your mates to make a mint, failing to have enough and correct PPE leading to well over 600 and still growing health care workers deaths. 

A health secretary that tried to blame lack of PPE on HCP's for miss using it. Falling to learn to from errors as the pandemic played out or willing to admit anything is wrong. Continuing to bring the health service to the brink of collapse over and over again. Having one of the worse death rates in world is all down to being in the public's own good ? 

Because we can't handle being told the truth, or being treated like grown up's and told we either go in hard once for a bit longer and do it quickly. Backed up by a clear, consistent messaging delivered by someone who the public have confidence in. At no point having a plan what to do before any of this happened or as it was clearly running out of control. Has nothing to do with the government at all ,as they heeded all the pre pandemic warnings and have continued to heed current ones ? 

Glad that's been cleared up in the mean time other part of world with equal free will and democratic systems who got treated as a adults , had a government that did take notice of what it was told. Held inquires into things that went wrong along the way learned and changed things. Had a health secretary that took responsibility for one error and resigned. Have in place effective ,practical help and support to allow anyone to self isolate without having to worry about being not able to afford it. Never bought into or sold to the public the health and wealth narrative or the one that see's health workers as hero's so it's only expected when they continue to die as that's what hero's do. Not highly trained and dedicated professionals who should have what ever it takes to protect as they care for others. 

Have for the best part of last year and now been largely free to get back to near enough "normal". Have total death and case numbers which we go sailing past every day. Must have a public that are totally up for being treated badly and believe everything they are told unable to question anything.


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## roubaixtuesday (22 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Thankfully, the government was savvy enough to grasp early on there would be compliance problems



There have been very few compliance problems, and the most notable is people continuing to work due to poverty. 

We have the highest death toll in the world, nearly. We are not the least compliant nation in the world.


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## mjr (22 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> There have been very few compliance problems, and the most notable is people continuing to work due to poverty.
> 
> We have the highest death toll in the world, nearly. We are not the least compliant nation in the world.


That notable one may be as low as 17% of people with symptoms going for a test and only 25% isolating when told, because positive means off work means bankruptcy. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...e-in-four-britons-fully-self-isolate-12195040


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## tom73 (22 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> There have been very few compliance problems, and the most notable is people continuing to work due to poverty.
> 
> We have the highest death toll in the world, nearly. We are not the least compliant nation in the world.



Which is something else they get told over and over again.


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## Pale Rider (22 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> There have been very few compliance problems,



Any number of stories indicate otherwise.

The latest being 400 guests at a Jewish wedding.

Not an insignificant number, which in turn indicates a widespread belief in that community that the restrictions do not apply to them.


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## roubaixtuesday (22 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Any number of stories indicate otherwise.
> 
> The latest being 400 guests at a Jewish wedding.
> 
> Not an insignificant number, which in turn indicates a widespread belief in that community that the restrictions do not apply to them.



"Stories" do not indicate a systemic problem. 

Believing they do is an excellent example of confirmation bias.


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## mjr (22 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Any number of stories indicate otherwise.
> 
> The latest being 400 guests at a Jewish wedding.
> 
> Not an insignificant number, which in turn indicates a widespread belief in that community that the restrictions do not apply to them.


Wow. I don't think it is safe to generalise from one illegal wedding to the whole Jewish community like that - and I don't remember condemnation of the whole Anglican community after the Essex wedding parties.


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## glasgowcyclist (22 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> There have been very few compliance problems, and the most notable is people continuing to work due to poverty.
> 
> We have the highest death toll in the world, nearly. We are not the least compliant nation in the world.



I heard a UK Gov stat quoted on Radio Scotland this morning that only 17% of people with symptoms get tested and only 1 in 4 people comply with self-isolation rules. That sounds pretty bad to me.

EDIT: TMN to mjr


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## Ajax Bay (22 Jan 2021)

glasgowcyclist said:


> only 17% of people with symptoms get tested


On the plus side, that might mean we'll get to the deescalating effects of developing herd immunity quicker as we can add a larger number of 'had it already, and have antibodies' to those vaccinated.
Anyone get a ride in in the last few days?


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## mjr (22 Jan 2021)

I think it is important to remember that testing and quarantine compliance is just one aspect of compliance, we're pretty good on most others, and government still has more tools available if it wanted to improve testing and quarantine, including quarantine orders which they seem to steadfastly refuse to use. 



Ajax Bay said:


> On the plus side, that might mean we'll get to the deescalating effects of developing herd immunity quicker as we can add a larger number of 'had it already, and have antibodies' to those vaccinated.


Except for all the uncertainty that still remains about the antibodies from infection and whether they protect people against which variants and for how long - remember Gaviria! - and relying on it would widen the unknown error range of estimates.



> Anyone get a ride in in the last few days?


In general, that would be off-topic, but it was like cycling through a zombie apocalypse here yesterday, which was useful because I was hauling a trailer of contactless shopping and I welcomed being able to use the empty carriageway to avoid some of the rough surfaces and annoying slopes on a few bits of late-90s cycleway - but I had failed to realise just how bumpy that anti-skid surface on the carriageway is when it starts to crack up (which is almost immediately after it is laid, such is the damage done by motorists). Anyway, it seemed from the traffic level on the A10 like lockdown is being adhered to fairly well ☺


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## kingrollo (22 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Any number of stories indicate otherwise.
> 
> The latest being 400 guests at a Jewish wedding.
> 
> Not an insignificant number, which in turn indicates a widespread belief in that community that the restrictions do not apply to them.



Pri Patel - quoted compliance figures of 92% the other day - some other behavioural scientists have put it 94%. Whatever we do short of house arrest we aren't going to improve compliance beyond those figures.

Those figures hold good even if you see a few headline grabbers flouting lockdown.


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## matticus (22 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Pri Patel - quoted compliance figures of 92% the other day - some other behavioural scientists have put it 94%. Whatever we do short of house arrest we aren't going to improve compliance beyond those figures.
> 
> Those figures hold good even if you see a few headline grabbers flouting lockdown.


But do we _know _we can't (couldn't) improve compliance? This government never really tried. They didn't talk about prosecutions, and they let the celebrities/politicians/footballers rub our noses in it. (pick from Cummings or Celtic FC. etc etc ... )

The road safety example is drink-driving; a concerted campaign decimated the number of offenders, mainly by making it socially unacceptable. People probably thought 90% compliance there was impossible until someone tried to fix it.


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## kingrollo (22 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> But do we _know _we can't (couldn't) improve compliance? This government never really tried. They didn't talk about prosecutions, and they let the celebrities/politicians/footballers rub our noses in it. (pick from Cummings or Celtic FC. etc etc ... )
> 
> The road safety example is drink-driving; a concerted campaign decimated the number of offenders, mainly by making it socially unacceptable. People probably thought 90% compliance there was impossible until someone tried to fix it.



Good and fair point.

My point was that if you want to slow the spread further IMO tightening restrictions would be the way to go. Rather than going after the 8% of non compliance. The current lockdown restrictions for example aren't as tight as those in March 2020.


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## Pale Rider (22 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> "Stories" do not indicate a systemic problem.
> 
> Believing they do is an excellent example of confirmation bias.



Stories do need to be interpreted, but inevitably most non-compliance will go unreported.

From reading on here, many of us have observed non-compliance among friends, neighbours, and strangers.

Also worth bearing in mind the Hasidic community in Stamford Hill is relatively small, probably numbered in the thousands or at most, tens of thousands.

Four hundred people showing no regard to the restrictions is a large proportion of that community.

It's vanishingly unlikely everyone else in that community is in full compliance, which in turn does indicate a widespread disregard for the restrictions.


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## matticus (22 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> My point was that if you want to slow the spread further IMO tightening restrictions would be the way to go. Rather than going after the 8% of non compliance. The current lockdown restrictions for example aren't as tight as those in March 2020.


Yeah, there's an argument for that; my fear is that the 8% will ignore whatever the restrictions are.

Having a drink with your 8 mates in a living room is a spreading event whatever the restrictions happen to be at that time.

Workplaces seem to get a free hand at the mo - where I work I think we have good, workable controls in place. But I read many horror stories of places that just don't seem to care. No-one from the HSE ever come to check on us!

I'm speculating now ...


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## kingrollo (22 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Stories do need to be interpreted, but inevitably most non-compliance will go unreported.
> 
> From reading on here, many of us have observed non-compliance among friends, neighbours, and strangers.
> 
> ...



Don't ever become prosecution lawyer.


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## Joey Shabadoo (22 Jan 2021)

This might uncover a lot of unsavoury activities if my son's place of employment are anything to go by

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55753816



> *A special Crown Office unit set up to probe Covid-linked deaths is investigating cases at 474 care homes in Scotland, the BBC can reveal.*
> The unit was set up in May to gather information on the circumstances of all deaths in care homes.
> Prosecutors will eventually decide if the deaths should be the subject of a fatal accident inquiry or prosecution.
> Care homes say the investigation is "disproportionate" and placing a huge burden on overstretched staff.
> ...


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## kingrollo (22 Jan 2021)

matticus said:


> Yeah, there's an argument for that; *my fear is that the 8% will ignore whatever the restrictions are.*
> 
> Having a drink with your 8 mates in a living room is a spreading event whatever the restrictions happen to be at that time.
> 
> ...



Agreed - That's why I wouldn't be committing a stack of resources to drive down that figure.

We have a tighter lockdown reference point in last March - that worked. Sure we have a more transmissible strain out there right now, but if numbers aren't falling fast enough we could go back to the March level of restrictions.


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## Dave Davenport (22 Jan 2021)

The mayor of Hackney, Philip Glanville, said he was "deeply disappointed" that the wedding party had taken place, despite "the number of lives that have already been lost in the Charedi community and across the borough". 
I don't think anyone's suggesting there is a compliance issue with the entire Jewish community, but there would appear to be within this small (and I suspect insular) part of it. 
To my mind a gathering that large, be it a wedding or illegal rave should result in an even larger fine than the current £10k or some people will continue to risk it.


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## matticus (22 Jan 2021)

Dave Davenport said:


> To my mind a gathering that large, be it a wedding or illegal rave should result in an even larger fine than the current £10k or some people will continue to risk it.


Indeedy.
(and that wedding was illegal under almost every form of limits since March)

It's enforcement/messaging we need, perhaps more than fiddling with the actual restrictions.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Except for all the uncertainty that still remains about the antibodies from infection and whether they protect people against which variants and for how long - remember Gaviria! - and relying on it would widen the unknown error range of estimates.


First - you raised my morale by providing Gaviria as an example: I could go and enjoy some stuff about cycling.
Second, ref 'uncertainty' - yes but minute. Here's an excerpt from the Cambridge Independent online
“Of nearly 30 million cases to date since December 2019, there have been *only about 10* documented and confirmed *cases of re-infection*s. These data suggest that resistance to reinfection might be less a function of durability of the immune response and more one of breadth,” said the authors, led by Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunobiologist at the University of Arizona College of Medicine.
“Although the SARS-CoV-2 genome is diversifying slowly compared with other more mutable pathogens, high levels of pre-existing immunity in communities could lead to the selection of rare viral variants that evade neutralising antibodies.”

So I think it is entirely reasonable to make the assumption that for a fair period (could be less than 9 months at the 90th percentile) aka: "rely on it" that the risk of reinfection is nil, for broad statistical work. Can always foot note an optimism bias. 
Off topic: Thank you for steering to the edge of the topic and sharing your "cycling through a zombie apocalypse" experience.

ETA: On the other hand PHE SIREN study says (press release):
"PHE scientists working on the study have concluded naturally acquired immunity as a result of past infections provide 83% protection against reinfection, compared to people who have not had the disease before. This appears to last at least for 5 months from first becoming sick.
"While the SIREN study will continue to assess whether protection may last for longer, this means people who contracted the disease in the first wave may now be vulnerable to catching it again.
"Between 18 June and 24 November, scientists detected 44 potential reinfections (2 ‘probable’ and 42 ‘possible’ reinfections) out of 6,614 [NHS] participants who had [previously] tested positive for antibodies. This represents *an 83% rate of protection from reinfection*.


----------



## Ajax Bay (22 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> . . . if you want to slow the spread further IMO tightening restrictions would be the way to go. Rather than going after the 8% of non compliance.


Not this, imo. (More 'waffling drivel' available)


matticus said:


> It's enforcement/messaging we need, perhaps more than fiddling with the actual restrictions.


This.


----------



## tom73 (22 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> This might uncover a lot of unsavoury activities if my son's place of employment are anything to go by
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55753816



Sadly I think will find things are not as they should care homes have just been a mass accident like covid in waiting. 
What with poor training , poor staff numbers, poor investment, poor management and poor social worth by the public. 
Add in poor government investment , over stretched social services , over stretched primary care and the ever going number for extra beds.
Good homes either shut up shop or price themselves out of what LA are able to pay. If you can manage to in one finding a place is not easy.
So you're left with a right odd mess of Russian roulette. 
As the UK was just totally not ready for this pandemic it's no wonder even the good homes just got thrown to wolves up and down the total UK. Along with group homes and hospices all seen and feed the narrative by governments as being full of people who die anyway. 
Which is total rubbish but helped when deaths started to mount and the questions got going.


----------



## mjr (22 Jan 2021)

glasgowcyclist said:


> I heard a UK Gov stat quoted on Radio Scotland this morning that only 17% of people with symptoms get tested and only 1 in 4 people comply with self-isolation rules. That sounds pretty bad to me.
> 
> EDIT: TMN to mjr


Strangely, BBC News seemed to be saying it was 43% getting tests and only 38% not isolating this morning:










And they also showed this testing centre worker getting far closer than 1m to people in the queue - but is it OK because they have the all-powerful hi-vis on?


----------



## pawl (22 Jan 2021)

Dave Davenport said:


> The mayor of Hackney, Philip Glanville, said he was "deeply disappointed" that the wedding party had taken place, despite "the number of lives that have already been lost in the Charedi community and across the borough".
> I don't think anyone's suggesting there is a compliance issue with the entire Jewish community, but there would appear to be within this small (and I suspect insular) part of it.
> To my mind a gathering that large, be it a wedding or illegal rave should result in an even larger fine than the current £10k or some people will continue to risk it.




Fine the school for allowing there school to be used Fine the participants and make them pay to be tested
As you say the current penalties are not enough People ,promoters will continue to flout the rules until it becomes unprofitable to stage these eventss


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## roubaixtuesday (22 Jan 2021)

Of course, compliance of people walking in parks <2m apart and house parties is what's the cause of the spread.

Not keeping premium air travel to luxury winter holiday destinations open. Oh no.

London/Dubai is now the busiest flight route _**in the world* . *_All essential travel, natch.

https://www.dubailad.com/london-to-dubai-now-the-busiest-flight-route-in-the-world/

This govt attempt to shift narrative on to individual compliance is a joke. Don't fall for their lies.


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## Dave Davenport (22 Jan 2021)

I was talking to a mate (who's a fair bit better off than me) a couple of days ago. He'd just cancelled an up market long haul holiday which he'd booked through a specialist travel agent, he reckoned there was no shortage of holidays available to places all over the world if you had the money.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Jan 2021)

*Revealed: how COVID-19 came into the UK*​A team of scientists, led by researchers from the Universities of Oxford and Edinburgh, has analysed the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in the UK and produced the most fine-scaled and comprehensive genomic analysis of transmission of any epidemic to date.​
https://www.alumni.ox.ac.uk/article/revealed-how-covid-19-came-into-the-uk
"Published today in _Science_, analysis reveals that the virus was introduced to the UK well over a thousand times in early 2020 and that the rate and source of introduction changed very quickly. During this time the highest number of transmission chains were introduced from Spain (33%), France (29%), and then Italy (12%) – with China accounting for only 0.4% of imports. The study shows how the UK national lockdown affected individual transmission chains."
NB Magnitude of Spain warm-weather half term holiday returners (my massive assumption based on purpose of majority of UK-Spain air travel in late Feb and the spike on 1March)
"By reconstructing where and when COVID-19 was introduced to the UK we can see that earlier travel and quarantine interventions could have helped to reduce the acceleration and intensity of the UK's first wave of cases."
"The ability to ramp up genomic surveillance at a large scale was made possible by the decision to fund the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium in April and builds on decades of blue-skies basic research into virus evolution, led by Oxford and Edinburgh universities, which developed the theory leading to scientists having these tools and theory at their disposal."
Well done the government. Another entry on the 'credit' sheet.


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## mjr (22 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Well done the government. Another entry on the 'credit' sheet.


There you go again. I was going to like it but then you try to put that in the credit column without noting the debits like failure to quarantine travellers early.


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## Joey Shabadoo (22 Jan 2021)

> *Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be more deadly, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.*
> The data has been assessed by scientists on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, which has briefed government.
> However, all the evidence remains at a preliminary stage.
> Studies have already shown it can spread more easily than other version of the virus.
> ...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55768627

feck


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## Pale Rider (22 Jan 2021)

pawl said:


> Fine the school for allowing there school to be used Fine the participants and make them pay to be tested
> As you say the current penalties are not enough People ,promoters will continue to flout the rules until it becomes unprofitable to stage these eventss



Some guests were fined, but it appears when the coppers turned up, lots of people legged it in all directions.

The organisers have been fined £10,000, although the school is saying they let the room to a third party, not knowing what it was to be used for.

Might even be true, but in the current climate if you let a large capacity hall, you ought to be taking an interest in why such a venue is required.

There was a queue of prominent members of the Jewish community on BBC news taking turns to condemn the event.

Only words, but at least some people in that community grasp the 400 are a bunch of irresponsible knackers.


----------



## mjr (22 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> There was a queue of prominent members of the Jewish community on BBC news taking turns to condemn the event.
> 
> Only words, but at least some people in that community grasp the 400 are a bunch of irresponsible knackers.


But you still stand by your earlier posts accusing the whole Jewish community of flouting lockdown, despite this evidence to the contrary?


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## Pale Rider (22 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> But you still stand by your earlier posts accusing the whole Jewish community of flouting lockdown, despite this evidence to the contrary?



No I did not accuse the 'whole Jewish community' of flouting lockdown.

What I said was a significant number of the orthodox community in Stamford Hill - the 400 - were paying no heed to the regulations.

The number is significant because the total membership of that community is a few thousand, or possibly a couple of tens of thousands.

I know you attempt to twist every story to bleat about Brexit and the Tory government, but leave my posts out of it.


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## SpokeyDokey (22 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55768627
> 
> feck



I think that really needs qualifying to avoid possible confusion. What was said was that in a population of* >60 year old males *the mortality rate per 1000 individuals would rise from 10 deaths (old variant) to 13-14 deaths (new variant) per 1000.

3-4 more deaths, sad as each may be, out of 1000 of the above population is not a massive increase per se.

Of course, some observers may wish to view that as requiring a headline number of a 'whopping 30-40% increase'. 

NB: not aimed at you JS but I've just listened to the Beeb hyping that exact message up with an unqualified headline announcement.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Jan 2021)

Edit note: "70%" is a figure which we can only estimate within a band of uncertainty: not much lower and could be up to 20 points higher. Depends on transmissibility of the dominant variant when we get 'there' and other factors (see earlier posts). Also doesn't take account of effective drop in vaccination rate from early March when the 12 week gap second doses are due (@200-300k per day).


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## mjr (22 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> No I did not accuse the 'whole Jewish community' of flouting lockdown.
> 
> What I said was a significant number of the orthodox community in Stamford Hill - the 400 - were paying no heed to the regulations.


Your words in https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6283363 were "The latest being 400 guests at a Jewish wedding. Not an insignificant number, which in turn indicates a widespread belief in that community that the restrictions do not apply to them."

Nothing about Orthodox or Stamford Hill until later. Maybe you would like to revise your earlier statement to mention some other community than only "Jewish".

Even then, going from 400 scofflaws to "tens of thousands " is debatable.



> I know you attempt to twist every story to bleat about Brexit and the Tory government, but leave my posts out of it.


Neither of those were mentioned but I guess you have to call for help somehow.


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## midlife (22 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think that really needs qualifying to avoid possible confusion. What was said was that in a population of* >60 year old males *the mortality rate per 1000 individuals would rise from 10 deaths (old variant) to 13-14 deaths (new variant) per 1000.
> 
> 3-4 more deaths, sad as each may be, out of 1000 of the above population is not a massive increase per se.
> 
> ...



I am a >60 male so getting the new variant gives me a 10-50% greater chance of not surviving. I guess about 7 million of us are thinking the same thing.......


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## nickyboy (23 Jan 2021)

These isolated instances of mass non compliance (like the Jewish one) are a tiny blip which barely registers on the national Covid radar. If you do the maths the enhanced likelihood of extra hospitalisations is a very small number at a time when tens of thousands are in hospital.

We are at ninety something % compliance. That's the number that matters. 

These isolated examples actually serve a purpose as it provides the opportunity to widely publicise a tough crackdown with large fines which helps to keep compliance % up. So I'm all for the outrage at these events. Not for the events in themselves but the impact they have on keeping general compliance levels up


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## SpokeyDokey (23 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> I am a >60 male so getting the new variant gives me a 10-50% greater chance of not surviving. I guess about 7 million of us are thinking the same thing.......



So am I, 64 and counting. 

I see the increase as a small uplift on already negligible probability of dying due to Covid.

It would be surprising if many men in our age group have got up in a fret this morning worrying about the respective death rates of the two variants.


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## fossyant (23 Jan 2021)

My brother's got his staff vaccinated at his dental practice. Two younger female staff won't have it as they are worried about fertility issues. FFS too much social media influence from conspiracy theorists.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2021)

@SpokeyDokey - I too doubt the 'fret' level will have ticked up this lovely Saturday morning, but I hope you don't mind if I observe that neither 1% nor (going up to) between 1.1% and 1.5% is a negligible death rate. I suspect if male >60 then corrects, if applicable, for lack of obesity and for lack of relevant underlying conditions, the risk/rate might then drop below 0.1%, which might be judged 'negligible'.
But the chances of me not finishing a ride whatever my body, the weather, mechanicals or other road users throw at me is less than 0.1% - and I make some effort to mitigate that small risk. As (I suspect) all those on here do, both to do their best to get all the way home, and to avoid catching COVID-19 (and the risk of serious illness and long term effects), let alone dying from it.
Sunny tailwinds!


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## SpokeyDokey (23 Jan 2021)

From the Beeb today:

I wonder how long it will be, or if, before internal borders are closed in Europe?

I hadn't realised that Germany's death numbers had risen to >50k either. 


*Borders to remain open*

The total number of German Covid deaths climbed above 50,000 on Friday - a day after the country warned that it could close its borders if other EU countries were less strict in controlling the virus. Berlin sounded the alarm amid rising concern about new variants.
EU leaders agreed late on Thursday to keep their internal borders open but warned non-essential travel might need to be restricted to curb the spread of the virus.

*Ms von der Leyen said Thursday that more testing and "targeted measures" were needed throughout the EU in order to keep internal and external borders open.*

For its part, France said it would impose tighter travel restrictions for European arrivals from Sunday, requiring a negative PCR Covid test within three days of travel.

In the Netherlands, a ban on all flights from the UK, South Africa and South American countries came into effect on Saturday to try and prevent new coronavirus variants gaining a foothold.

Looking forward to the future, officials from EU nations reliant on tourism - including Spain and Greece - have floated the possibility of using vaccination certificates to allow for cross-border travel but there has been scepticism within the bloc.


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## Pale Rider (23 Jan 2021)

In other international virus news, looks like China has fired up its history airbrush - again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55765875


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> how long it will be, or if, before internal borders are closed in Europe?


There's going to be a growing battle within and between EU nations between the value of national border controls within the Shengen area countries and the importance of EU unity and free travel within the state of Europe. I guess they'll handle it at least as well as the EU vaccine procurement omnishambles and EMA authorisation of the various vaccines debacle.
For the avoidance of doubt, these are observations, albeit with perjorative nouns used, and not a comment on whether the UK should have stayed a full member of the EU. I am fighting off schadenfreude not least because of the millions of the poorer nations of the Europe project.
Had we stayed a member of the EU, the EMA would have stayed in London with its excellent staff (witness the UK's outstanding MRHA) and there would have been a strong and beneficial UK element and influence in the EU vaccine procurement to ensure that national interests (France and Sanofi-GSK, looking at you) were kept in check.


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## tom73 (23 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> My brother's got his staff vaccinated at his dental practice. Two younger female staff won't have it as they are worried about fertility issues. FFS too much social media influence from conspiracy theorists.


Can I ask how he's mannered it ? As access in the wider health service is a right mix bag and a mess. Only ask as Mrs 73 can't access it for her or her staff and the wider centres she is over seeing.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2021)

Blue Hills said:


> somewhat to my surprise I find this thread a very handy way of keeping up with the latest developments/progress


Doing my best to contribute - apologise for the "waffling drivel" and tl;dr.


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## kingrollo (23 Jan 2021)

PeteXXX said:


> The Coronavirus (Wuhan virus) outbreak.
> How worried should the world be?



Happy Birthday thread. !


----------



## fossyant (23 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Can I ask how he's mannered it ? As access in the wider health service is a right mix bag and a mess. Only ask as Mrs 73 can't access it for her or her staff and the wider centres she is over seeing.



I'll try and find out. He's been given 6 months supply of covid tests as well. That's mad as your wife is on the front line.


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## kingrollo (23 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> I'll try and find out. He's been given 6 months supply of covid tests as well. That's mad as your wife is on the front line.



All staff invited for Jab at hospital where I work. Walk in service available as well.


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## fossyant (23 Jan 2021)

My brother was sent a link from GM Dental for frontline dental and social workers.


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## midlife (23 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Can I ask how he's mannered it ? As access in the wider health service is a right mix bag and a mess. Only ask as Mrs 73 can't access it for her or her staff and the wider centres she is over seeing.



Some of the dental staff who work part time in practice and part time in the hospital (evening emergency clinics) have been vaccinated. Presumably as they have a hospital contract. One of them tested positive last week


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## PeteXXX (23 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Happy Birthday thread. !


I looked at my first post last week as I was thinking it must be nearly a year 😔


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## Blue Hills (23 Jan 2021)

On the origins of this, serious bullshit from the Chinese rather puts in doubt the chances of getting to the bottom of this - important for medical not political issues.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55765875

I wouldn't trust anything coming from the chinese authorities.

"Your question is not friendly," says a supposed scientist.

Warning bells always go off for me when folk respond like that to perfectly reasonable questions.

Happens a fair bit on here on non pandemic issues.


----------



## tom73 (23 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> I'll try and find out. He's been given 6 months supply of covid tests as well. That's mad as your wife is on the front line.


Tell me about it away from hospitals it's a right mess some areas are getting it other not. A bench was due the other week and nothing came since then nothing no word or whisper either. Even the PPE orders are not arriving they've not had any FFP3 masks for a few weeks now.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2021)

Black and red lines have gone up for the whole of January, mind. Also note that the 'buff' line (average year) would go up in January by several hundred (flu etc in normal winter).


----------



## rockyroller (23 Jan 2021)

some ppl are happily moving on, while others, not so much

the rich old white guy (70s) that I work for, got a shot ... 

my neighbor's cousin, is in a drug induced coma & intibated on a ventilator 😔

my 90 & 93 yr old parents have no indication of a shot anytime soon 😖


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## Dave Davenport (23 Jan 2021)

rockyroller said:


> some ppl are happily moving on, while others, not so much
> 
> the rich old white guy (70s) that I work for, got a shot ...
> 
> ...


On what basis is the vaccine being allocated in the US? I've been told it's possible to 'buy' a vaccination in California, I took that with a large pinch of salt but I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it were true.


----------



## rockyroller (23 Jan 2021)

Dave Davenport said:


> On what basis is the vaccine being allocated in the US? I've been told it's possible to 'buy' a vaccination in California, I took that with a large pinch of salt but I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it were true.


there's no national policy, every state is on their own. there's a multi tiered approach. but even with that, one must look out for themself, to advocate for a shot. I'm under 65 & have virtually no prospect of getting a shot anytime soon

my state:
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-vaccination-program


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## BoldonLad (23 Jan 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> So am I, 64 and counting.
> 
> I see the increase as a small uplift on already negligible probability of dying due to Covid.
> 
> *It would be surprising if many men in our age group have got up in a fret this morning worrying about the respective death rates of the two variants.*



As a 73 year old, male, I am not fretting or worrying about it. I shall just continue to avoid un-necessary risks, as I have for most of my life, and, in particular since March 2020.


----------



## BoldonLad (23 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Can I ask how he's mannered it ? As access in the* wider health service* is a right mix bag and a mess. Only ask as Mrs 73 can't access it for her or her staff and the wider centres she is over seeing.



Not sure what you mean by "wider health service", but, my grand-daughter, age 24, working in a GP Practice as a receptionist, had her jab a week ago.


----------



## Rocky (23 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> View attachment 570243
> 
> Black and red lines have gone up for the whole of January, mind. Also note that the 'buff' line (average year) would go up in January by several hundred (flu etc in normal winter).


I have a problem with this representation of the impact of Covid. The FT reports that: 

_The jump in mortality rates suggests that since the pandemic began, the UK’s total excess deaths — the number above the previous five-year average — has risen to well over 100,000, according to a Financial Times model that brings official figures, which have a two-week lag, up to date._

https://www.ft.com/content/5f7b58fb-97ad-4fef-bbc9-b71d328c6700

Oke's figures seem to claim that the current number of deaths are roughly in line with the five year average. The FT disagrees with this. My money is on the FT here.


----------



## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> Oke's figures seem to claim that the current number of deaths are roughly in line with the five year average. The FT disagrees with this.


Don't think the FT figures are incompatible with the graph. Note what the 'y' axis plots. To get total deaths in 2020 from the graph I shared (from the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, Oxford University) you have to integrate the two curves' difference over the year (365 days) - ie the net area under the black curve and above the 'buff' line. My money is on both of them for the joint 'win'.
Didn't one just _love_ calculus bitd?


----------



## Rocky (23 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Don't think the FT figures are incompatible with the graph. Note what the 'y' axis plots. To get total deaths in 2020 from the graph I shared (from the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, Oxford University) you have to integrate the two curves' difference over the year (365 days) - ie the net area under the black curve and above the 'buff' line. My money is on both of them for the joint 'win'.
> Didn't one just _love_ calculus bitd?


I’d be wary about CEBM - its recent outputs haven’t been peer reviewed and its website is hosted on a private server. There is quite a lot of disquiet about some of their claims. Plus the data points seem to end in November...I can’t work out how they’ve continued the extrapolation.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> the graph I shared from the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, Oxford University





Rocky said:


> I’d be wary about CEBM - its recent outputs haven’t been peer reviewed and its website is hosted on a private server. There is quite a lot of disquiet about some of their claims.


https://www.phc.ox.ac.uk/research/oxford-centre-for-evidence-based-medicine
I tried to explore what one might be wary of but could not find a critical approach or expressions of disquiet. Could you offer a few pointers? In these fast-moving times, much stuff is not peer-reviewed by the time their conclusions are given air time. Apologies for my ignorance: what does having a website hosted on a "private server" suggest, to its detriment? Or is this more of an 'anti evidence-based medicine' issue, for you?
Data extrapolation - no can't help, sorry - this link which is updated daily, with provenance I guess suggests that this is 'real' and not a mere extrapolation form November:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-daily-update/
Take it you agree that the CEBM data and the graph's presentation are entirely compatible with the FT numbers?


----------



## Rocky (23 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> https://www.phc.ox.ac.uk/research/oxford-centre-for-evidence-based-medicine
> I tried to explore what one might be wary of but could not find a critical approach or expressions of disquiet. Could you offer a few pointers? In these fast-moving times, much stuff is not peer-reviewed by the time their conclusions are given air time. Apologies for my ignorance: what does having a website hosted on a "private server" suggest, to its detriment? Or is this more of an 'anti evidence-based medicine' issue, for you?
> Data extrapolation - no can't help, sorry - this link which is updated daily, with provenance I guess suggests that this is 'real' and not a mere extrapolation form November:
> https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-daily-update/
> Take it you agree that the CEBM data and the graph's presentation are entirely compatible with the FT numbers?


Have a look at how many peer reviewed journal articles its academics have published on Covid in 2020 (it’s pretty close to zero). Have a look at how many articles other academics from the Nuffield Department of General Practice have published - well into the 100s. Also have a look at the criticism of its director for advice given on mask wearing, testing and lockdown. There’s been much published on line and in the newspapers.

It may have a university link but it is hosted on a private server much to the chagrin of the university’s authorities.


----------



## tom73 (23 Jan 2021)

Wonder if he's a friend of Carl's ?
As you've pointed out other parts have been going great work though out this and have some really high rate clinical knowledge and experience. Leading to some improved clinical outcomes and greater understanding of covid and shaping services for long covid. 
It's a shame other parts have been so vocal about calling for other unproven ways out this mess. Leading to more mud in the waters that we can do without.


----------



## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Wonder if he's a friend of Carl's ?


If you mean Prof Carl Heneghan, Dr Oke is a colleague of the CEBM director. No idea whether they are friends.
Not clear to me what toes are being stepped on here. I just shared a graph (which I will lay a bet is based on quality data) showing the distribution of deaths during 2020.
https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19-evidence-service/


----------



## Rocky (23 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> If you mean Prof Carl Heneghan, Dr Oke is a colleague of the CEBM director. No idea whether they are friends.
> Not clear to me what toes are being stepped on here. I just shared a graph (which I will lay a bet is based on quality data) showing the distribution of deaths during 2020.
> https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19-evidence-service/


The CEBM has consistently argued that the reported death stats are too high and that what we are experiencing is nothing different to 'normal death rates'. The original graph that was posted suggests that too with the 5 year average mostly tracking the 'all deaths' line. The red Covid line peaks in Mar-May but appears to be at zero throughout the summer. We know that large numbers of people were dying of Covid in December and January but there doesn't seem to be any data points on that graph. There have been nearly 100,000 excess deaths due to Covid (as per my FT reference). As I said in my first post, this appears to be misleading. Why that has been published like that on (a non-peer reviewed) website, we can only speculate.

Edit: what I struggle with is the reporting from the front line about ICUs overflowing and the need for temporary mortuaries and the CEBM claims that this is normal.


----------



## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> The CEBM has consistently argued that the reported death stats are too high and that what we are experiencing is nothing different to 'normal death rates'. The original graph that was posted suggests that too with the 5 year average mostly tracking the 'all deaths' line. The red Covid line peaks in Mar-May but appears to be at zero throughout the summer. We know that large numbers of people were dying of Covid in December and January but there doesn't seem to be any data points on that graph. There have been nearly 100,000 excess deaths due to Covid (as per my FT reference).


Thank you.
"The CEBM has consistently argued that the reported death stats are too high and that what we are experiencing is nothing different to 'normal death rates'." Does this graph suggest that? It doesn't to me. Look at the huge excess death spike in Mar-May and the excess deaths in December. That's your (FT's) 100,000, isn't it?
You queried:
1) "5 year average mostly tracking the 'all deaths' line". Why do you think that is not true for most of 2020's months?
2) "red Covid line peaks in Mar-May but appears to be at zero throughout the summer" Well, the death rate from COVID-19 (28 day criterion) averaged (my estimate from the gov.uk graph: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England ) about 20 a day from 1 Jul to 1 Oct, so on the CEBM graph that's close to zero, visually.
3) "large numbers of people were dying of Covid in December and January" Two observations: this graph is for 2020 (not this month) and the death rate (by death) in December only ticked above 400 on the 17th and much later. 400 in Nov/Dec is about what the CEBM graph shows. This graph may be the death rate by date reported in which case the up tick (above 400) is as late as 27 Dec.






(Better quality graph in my earlier post)


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## Rocky (23 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Thank you.
> "The CEBM has consistently argued that the reported death stats are too high and that what we are experiencing is nothing different to 'normal death rates'." Does this graph suggest that? It doesn't to me. Look at the huge excess death spike in Mar-May and the excess deaths in December. That's your (FT's) 100,000, isn't it?
> You queried:
> 1) "5 year average mostly tracking the 'all deaths' line". Why do you think that is not true for most of 2020's months?
> ...


I simply note that having the two lines tracking each other (apart from the spring uptick) suggests that nothing out of the ordinary is currently happening. Data from the ground suggests that is not the case and that CEBM for some reason is being disingenuous. Why that is happening, I don't know. For reasons I don't want to go into, I'm going to leave this discussion here.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2021)

CEBM - Deaths per week, by date of registration
Can see the effect (on registration) of the key public holidays every year (NY, Easter (varying and not in 2020), late May, late Aug, Christmas)
I think (but I don't know) that these data are from the ONS data: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
which also offers data (2020 COVID-19 deaths daily registered) to inform the previous graph I shared.




*Irene M. Stratton* MSc FFPH
Senior Statistician
Gloucestershire Retinal Research Group


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## midlife (23 Jan 2021)

Red line does seem to be an outlier.....


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> Red line does seem to be an outlier.....


Sadly it will be an outlier in 2021, at least for the first 4 months. Maybe will be below average after that, so an outlier then too.


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## Milzy (23 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Sadly it will be an outlier in 2021, at least for the first 4 months. Maybe will be below average after that, so an outlier then too.


People think everything will be all tickety boo for the spring. Well it’s going to be death & lock downs on & off for most of the year in reality. The vaccines will only ease the situation not completely make it go away. It will take a full year to get most of the population done. 2022 should be more ‘normal’ apart from the economic damage.


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## slowmotion (23 Jan 2021)

Milzy said:


> People think everything will be all tickety boo for the spring. Well it’s going to be death & lock downs on & off for most of the year in reality. The vaccines will only ease the situation not completely make it go away. It will take a full year to get most of the population done. 2022 should be more ‘normal’ apart from the economic damage.



That was pretty much the conclusion that four college friends came to when we had a Zoom party earlier this evening. I wish I could, but I don't think a shot of a vaccine is going to wave some kind of magic wand over this mess.


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## MrGrumpy (23 Jan 2021)

2022 before the world is vaccinated ? Listening to the news today, this virus is endemic end off. So in reality the goal now must be to get a workable solution so we can go back to a new normal


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## classic33 (23 Jan 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> 2022 before the world is vaccinated ? Listening to the news today, this virus is endemic end off. So in reality the goal now must be to get a workable solution so we can go back to a new normal


I'd say that as soon as folk realise that things will not be the same as before, we have a chance.

Deny that things have changed, and it'll be awkward for us all.


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## mjr (23 Jan 2021)

DVLA 535 cases and still encouraging people with symptoms to go in! https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-mass-covid-outbreak-at-top-government-agency

It is an Agency and not part of the DfT, so Minister Shapps should be able to survive by holding its chief exec accountable or replacing them, but these are strange times.


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## tom73 (24 Jan 2021)

classic33 said:


> I'd say that as soon as folk realise that things will not be the same as before, we have a chance.
> 
> Deny that things have changed, and it'll be awkward for us all.



That‘s the big problem a good few pennies have to drop and quickly. The effects of this will not be fixed even when covid becomes something we live with in the same way as flu. We still have a long road yet and plugs need to pull now we can't afford any more “all over by Christmas“ moments. Or believing/promote health services once cases fall will be back to normal levels any time soon. The health cost of this will dwarf anything else most of which is unknown. This year will mostly give us time to take stock. The real work and life post covid is likely to really not to hit home till next year. Then some real questions and planning will need to begin. We also need to understand covid is a world wide issue and many parts of it will need help unless they too have vaccines we are never going to get control of this.
On thing is a given for the family and friends of over 97,000 and counting life will never be the same.


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## mjr (24 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> That‘s the big problem a good few pennies have to drop and quickly. The effects of this will not be fixed even when covid becomes something we live with in the same way as flu. We still have a long road yet and plugs need to pull now we can't afford any more “all over by Christmas“ moments. Or believing/promote health services once cases fall will be back to normal levels any time soon.


Credit to Hancock this morning. On a not-as-annoying-as-usual video interview with Marr today, he stuck to the above line. I do wonder how long he can stick to that line before Number 10 press office orders him to stop upsetting people.

And we finally got a view of his office that makes it look less like he is in a downstairs loo!


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## Joey Shabadoo (24 Jan 2021)

So we're likely to see deaths top 100,000 on Monday or Tuesday


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## mjr (24 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> So we're likely to see deaths top 100,000 on Monday or Tuesday


Only the published headline count. The real figure is probably already more. Still a headstone milestone


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## deptfordmarmoset (24 Jan 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> So we're likely to see deaths top 100,000 on Monday or Tuesday


I doubt it will be Monday; the figures will still be down from poor weekend reporting.


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## mjr (24 Jan 2021)

Canadian trial finds a cheap gout drug cuts death and hospitalisation risks by 21% https://www.icm-mhi.org/en/pressroom/news/colchicine-reduces-risk-covid-19-related-complications


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## DaveReading (24 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> CEBM - Deaths per week, by date of registration
> Can see the effect (on registration) of the key public holidays every year (NY, Easter (varying and not in 2020), late May, late Aug, Christmas)
> I think (but I don't know) that these data are from the ONS data: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
> which also offers data (2020 COVID-19 deaths daily registered) to inform the previous graph I shared.
> ...



Do you get to be a Senior Statistician by believing that presenting a timeseries in the form of a polar plot is somehow a good idea ?


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## Rocky (24 Jan 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Do you get to be a Senior Statistician by believing that presenting a timeseries in the form of a polar plot is somehow a good idea ?
> View attachment 570393


I agree with you. I see this as massive naivety or a deliberate attempt to mislead by claiming apart from a few outliers, things are within normal limits. What this omits is that lockdown has a major impact on deaths (causing some and preventing many more) and the outliers account for 40,000 excess deaths, making such comparisons invalid. Things are not within normal limits - just look at what is happening round the country with overflowing mortuaries and ICU units. As soon as policy makers are seduced by this sophistry and social distancing measures are relaxed, we get a huge spike in deaths.


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## Pale Rider (24 Jan 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Do you get to be a Senior Statistician by believing that presenting a timeseries in the form of a polar plot is somehow a good idea ?



No, but you get some brownie points for knowing it's called a polar plot.


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## midlife (24 Jan 2021)

Going way back to my student days, didn't Florence Nightingale use polar plots to look at soldiers deaths? Or was she looking at something different. Not a statistician just curious.


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## matticus (24 Jan 2021)

There is a natural annual cycle to deaths, so it makes some sense to me.


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## tom73 (24 Jan 2021)

Rocky said:


> I agree with you. I see this as massive naivety or a deliberate attempt to mislead by claiming apart from a few outliers, things are within normal limits. What this omits is that lockdown has a major impact on deaths (causing some and preventing many more) and the outliers account for 40,000 excess deaths, making such comparisons invalid. Things are not within normal limits - just look at what is happening round the country with overflowing mortuaries and ICU units. As soon as policy makers are seduced by this sophistry and social distancing measures are relaxed, we get a huge spike in deaths.


Seduced and not just from a distance as we now know.The no to the "circuit break" looks to have been made on the back of meeting them.


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## Unkraut (24 Jan 2021)

midlife said:


> Going way back to my student days, didn't Florence Nightingale use ...


You can remember Florence Nightingale? ...


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## Pale Rider (24 Jan 2021)

More than 30 virus restriction breaches in Birmingham on a single night.

Given that the clear up rate for minor crime is under 10%, it's a reasonable inference to draw there were hundreds of other breaches which were not detected.

Neither should Birmingham be regarded as breach hotspot - we just happened to have been told about the situation there.

Chances are the same is happening in towns and cities across the country.

All of which I reckon adds up to significant non-compliance.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-55786863


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## kingrollo (24 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> More than 30 virus restriction breaches in Birmingham on a single night.
> 
> Given that the clear up rate for minor crime is under 10%, it's a reasonable inference to draw there were hundreds of other breaches which were not detected.
> 
> ...



Assuming you're correct. - what action do you think should be taken to enforce complaince ?


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## Joey Shabadoo (24 Jan 2021)




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## Joey Shabadoo (24 Jan 2021)

Firm but fair, that's me.


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## Pale Rider (24 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Assuming you're correct. - what action do you think should be taken to enforce complaince ?



Most realistic options are being taken already.

The coppers have recently started to nick more people publicly, urging the public to comply continues, and it looks like the fines for more egregious breaches are being increased.

I'd be tempted to lock up a few, but that's difficult given the offences are non-imprisonable.

The situation does indicate why the claims of mis-management by the government are so wide of the mark.

Ultimately, the rules will not work if the public choose to ignore them, no matter how cleverly those rules are thought out.


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## roubaixtuesday (24 Jan 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Most realistic options are being taken already.
> 
> The coppers have recently started to nick more people publicly, urging the public to comply continues, and it looks like the fines for more egregious breaches are being increased.
> 
> ...



Most people comply with the rules. 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...ince-first-lockdown-new-data-reveals-12186138

It's a tempting narrative to believe that individual rule breaking is the problem, but it just doesn't seem to be the driver. 

Rather:

The rules are too lax. Compared to licorice one: Far more children are allowed in school. Far more people are at work. 

An exception: There is a whole swathe of people for whom isolating means poverty and hunger. Unsurprisingly, this is where compliance is low, and enforcement will not merely fail, but actively harm the response - these people will just choose not to be tested.


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## Rezillo (24 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Credit to Hancock this morning. On a not-as-annoying-as-usual video interview with Marr today, he stuck to the above line. I do wonder how long he can stick to that line before Number 10 press office orders him to stop upsetting people.
> 
> _And we finally got a view of his office that makes it look less like he is in a downstairs loo!_



I wonder if that was in response to a sketch in the Last Leg on Friday when they pointed out his room didn't appear to have a door. They animated it to look like the back of a van on the move, with his books tumbling off the shelves while he was talking.


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## kingrollo (24 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Most people comply with the rules.
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...ince-first-lockdown-new-data-reveals-12186138
> 
> ...



No one has ever said we have 100% complaince.

Therefore the 30 incidents in Birmingham (population 2m ???) Are well within the 8% of suggested non compliance. Indeed as @Pale Rider says there were probably more..taking us a tad closer to the 8% non compliance...how close ..who knows.

Rather than bigger fines I'd like to see increased detection -if people know they have reasonable chance of being caught fined they are more likely to comply.

Funny story -friend of my son's actually has covid -was that hacked off with being ill -he started to get the music vibes , louder, louder , it went ....he got a knock on the door ...they thought he was having a party 😂🤣


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## roubaixtuesday (24 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> No one has ever said we have 100% complaince.
> 
> Therefore the 30 incidents in Birmingham (population 2m ???) Are well within the 8% of suggested non compliance. Indeed as @Pale Rider says there were probably more..taking us a tad closer to the 8% non compliance...how close ..who knows.
> 
> ...



I'm not against detection and enforcement, but it needs to be in context. 

Context being that London/Dubai has been allowed to become the busiest air route in the world, and 40% of kids are in primary school. 

All the evidence us that lack of compliance is not what is driving the epidemic, except for people who can't afford to comply.


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## SpokeyDokey (24 Jan 2021)

Isn't the problem with deducing accurate non-compliance figures hindered by some people not 'confessing' when asked and also being influenced by the (based on our experience of family and friends) warped assumptions such as "it's my daughter/son and they know what they are doing", "I can't see what difference our family makes", "they had a test (lateral flow) a few weeks ago so they must be ok" rollocks that we've heard trotted out from people that are still not complying.

The targeting of groups of >15 groups of people is laudable and at the end of the day the number has to be high enough to give the stretched Police a least a fighting chance of catching the worst offenders.

My guess, based on our own experiences as above, is that there are many more lower level rule breaches going on right now that are under the radar so to speak.

Re lower demographics - yes I understand the difficulties cited up-thread re compliance but the people that we know (now at 11 families and 4 by indirect association) who are quite frankly taking the proverbial are very definitely not in that demographic.

Relationships are being sorely tested here tbh.


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## kingrollo (24 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm not against detection and enforcement, but it needs to be in context.
> 
> Context being that London/Dubai has been allowed to become the busiest air route in the world, and 40% of kids are in primary school.
> 
> All the evidence us that lack of compliance is not what is driving the epidemic, except for people who can't afford to comply.



Oh agreed. There's a locally reported story around here about an Outbreak traced to a McDonald store -2members of staff tested positive ..and of those had a family member requiring hospital treatment.


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## deptfordmarmoset (24 Jan 2021)

What do we do when known fraudsters encourage their employers to defy isolation rules? Give them a knighthood, probably. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-mass-covid-outbreak-at-top-government-agency


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## tom73 (24 Jan 2021)

Glad the point about demographics being reported has been spotted. Which is playing very nicely into the some sort of new deserving poor but now it's covid. The only time press look interested is when higher class get done for braking rules they believe wrongly. Not too long ago a we had the case of two well turned out friends and meeting for coffee  walk. If it was two from the local estate not a chance. Yes compliance is part of the problem I see every day down out street inc next door.I'be got family going the same too. If we are going after this then let's get real and deal with every part of this swiss cheese approach inc the total get out of jail card called bubbles. Child care is just that not a send all day round your mums or call in for tea. Support bubbles are not a pick and mix to meet up. The guidelines are clear yet no one ever go's for them. The government just won't touch it the yummy mummy won't like it much better to go after the poor and blame them. 
But we have to see past the smoke screen this mess is not down to us. When the rules have more you can do then you can't you've a problem. When your told stay home ...but. It's not enforcement that's key to this but the message and people saying not being seen as believable or credible. The big over arching issue is we have government who did not have the ball's to do this right when it had the chance. We did not let covid run amok over and over again they did they never got it then and still don't.


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## mjr (25 Jan 2021)

Riots against curfew in NL, test centre set ablaze https://www.thejournal.ie/netherlands-protests-coronavirus-5334681-Jan2021/


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## tom73 (25 Jan 2021)

Government have now even wheeled out old Dido to play the blame game. 
Note .... Nothing to do with lack of government help or support. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-...0eb32254a69202e80ddb7f&pinned_post_type=share


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## Cirrus (25 Jan 2021)

An item from BBC looking at the death rates and basically saying that teachers are "not at higher risk than others", what did surprise me was the disparity between men and women, two thirds of the deaths are men, according to the article, the base source is the ONS:
Covid: Teachers 'not at higher risk' of death than average - BBC News


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## Ajax Bay (25 Jan 2021)

Cirrus said:


> An item from BBC looking at the death rates and basically saying that teachers are "not at higher risk than others", what did surprise me was the disparity between men and women, two thirds of the deaths are men, according to the article, the base source is the ONS:
> Covid: Teachers 'not at higher risk' of death than average - BBC News


In 2020 in England and Wales, ONS record 84,449 deaths (date of death in 2020, with COVID-19 on the death certificate).
Of those 45% were female and 55% were male.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
Edit: deleted
"The 2019 headcount of *male* teachers in all state-funded schools was 121,356 which was *24.2%* of all teachers."
"Among teachers, there were *18 *deaths per 100,000 among men and *10 *per 100,000 among women." No doubt true, but that's not the same as " [in] teachers . . . two thirds of the deaths are men" (because less than 1/4 of teachers are male).
Lies, damn lies and statistics.
Perhaps this would support the argument that male teachers should be vaccinated ahead of female teachers (of the same age and excluding other vulnerabilities). I can't see that going down well with a variety of stakeholders whatever its statistical merit.


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## mjr (25 Jan 2021)

I think the NHS may have turned with this ad campaign:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1352980053072732161


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## tom73 (26 Jan 2021)

The latest figure(known) of health care workers that have now died since this all started. 
Is now the shocking number of 883 yet even now they are still fighting for the right PPE. 
At the same time DCMO has been volunteering going vaccinations wearing higher grade mask. 
Which PHE say is not required if we can afford "eat out to help covid out" then the can pay for this. 
Can't we ? Oh forgot they are hero's and hero's die don't they.


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## kingrollo (26 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> I think the NHS may have turned with this ad campaign:
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1352980053072732161



Tick tick tick..........


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## nickyboy (26 Jan 2021)

Interesting that Quarantine Hotels are now on the agenda. There isn't much point of them whilst UK has higher local transmission rates than countries people are arriving from. Suspect the science driving this (assuming it's not a politically based policy) is;

New variants popping up in the future elsewhere 

UK finally getting on top of its cases via the accelerated vaccination program and running through the summer with lower transmission levels than countries people will travel from


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## MrGrumpy (26 Jan 2021)

If...... only they had done this last year  . We might have been in somewhat better shape ?


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## mjr (26 Jan 2021)

nickyboy said:


> Interesting that Quarantine Hotels [...] UK finally getting on top of its cases via the accelerated vaccination program and running through the summer with lower transmission levels than countries people will travel from


We've a long way to go before we are on top of cases and we're already seeing the madder Tories using the vaccination speed success to push for an unlocking which would kick the "virus growth" R back over 100% again, almost certainly undoing any effect of Quarantine-on-entry.

I guess it is interesting that they're being considered now, after a year of people saying we're not a faraway island like Aus/NZ and it couldn't possibly be done. Have the weekend's pictures of sardine-like queues in the immigration hall at Heathrow finally moved ministers to act?


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## MrGrumpy (26 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> I guess it is interesting that they're being considered now, after a year of people saying we're not a faraway island like Aus/NZ and it couldn't possibly be done. Have the weekend's pictures of sardine-like queues in the immigration hall at Heathrow finally moved ministers to act?


seems like it to me !!


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## tom73 (26 Jan 2021)

Getting on top of cases that's a laugh we are no way near it. It's miles off the rate it needs to be covid has changed the game put we are still playing by the same rules and still we are peeing in the wind. They still are failing to grasp just what brown stuff we are in. Just who is in charge of this and who's even got a clue about a plan ? The consent no mans land of the mythical wealth over health is still winning it's not worked it never will. The vaccine is not silver bullet and no long ranger is waiting the wings until ones at the top wake up and do this right we will still be mindlessly left adrift.


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## tom73 (26 Jan 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> seems like it to me !!


Unlike them if it's anything like other measures we have in place it's not full of holes.


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## nickyboy (26 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> We've a long way to go before we are on top of cases and we're already seeing the madder Tories using the vaccination speed success to push for an unlocking which would kick the "virus growth" R back over 100% again, almost certainly undoing any effect of Quarantine-on-entry.
> 
> I guess it is interesting that they're being considered now, after a year of people saying we're not a faraway island like Aus/NZ and it couldn't possibly be done. Have the weekend's pictures of sardine-like queues in the immigration hall at Heathrow finally moved ministers to act?


Well something has prompted them to act. In reality, those immigration queues have always been there. There is no more inbound air traffic now than, say, a couple of months ago. I still suspect it is move precipitated by the popping up of other variants that we don't know the transmissabiltymortality rates of. And I think it's getting the ducks in a row in the event that UK can force its transmission numbers down to lower levels than the countries that people are flying from.

By the way, who are these "people" who said for a year it couldn't possibly be done?


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## mjr (26 Jan 2021)

nickyboy said:


> Well something has prompted them to act. In reality, those immigration queues have always been there. There is no more inbound air traffic now than, say, a couple of months ago. I still suspect it is move precipitated by the popping up of other variants that we don't know the transmissabiltymortality rates of. And I think it's getting the ducks in a row in the event that UK can force its transmission numbers down to lower levels than the countries that people are flying from.


Sure, I agree it may be images on TV rather than reality which have moved gov.uk to act now.

I don't think it's only due to other variants popping up because that's been known for many weeks now.



> By the way, who are these "people" who said for a year it couldn't possibly be done?


As well as the obvious politicians, you could find them on most forums:


nickyboy said:


> [...] Closing borders for countries with road freight access (and economies fundamentally dependent on it) is impossible. [...]


----------



## Ajax Bay (26 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Getting on top of cases that's a laugh we are no way near it. It's miles off the rate it needs to be covid has changed the game put we are still playing by the same rules and still we are peeing in the wind.


Afternoon, Tom
What 'rate' (give us a figure: eg 6,700 cases a day? - one in ten thousand of the population (0.1%)) do you think the daily rate 'needs to be' (below) before we might say that the UK was 'on top of cases'? I suggest that as well as a simple rate you'd want the rate to be declining as well.
Here's an ONS graph (May to mid Jan) of:





Four points: May to August is 'summer'. We now have the B.1.1.7 variant to contend with. By 15 Feb + 14 days vaccination (first dose 89% efficacy) protects 88% (ie the oldies and the CeV) of those who would otherwise be hospitalised. 28+M will be vaccinated by Easter (we hope).
As @kingrollo didn't say: "Tick, tock, tick".


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## nickyboy (26 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Sure, I agree it may be images on TV rather than reality which have moved gov.uk to act now.
> 
> I don't think it's only due to other variants popping up because that's been known for many weeks now.
> 
> ...


That was once, you said "all year". Keep going


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## mjr (26 Jan 2021)

nickyboy said:


> That was once, you said "all year". Keep going


The search is accessed by using the searchglass icon near the top right.


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## tom73 (26 Jan 2021)

True leadership sounds like this 

View: https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1353320706268921858?s=21


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## kingrollo (26 Jan 2021)

nickyboy said:


> Interesting that Quarantine Hotels are now on the agenda. There isn't much point of them whilst UK has higher local transmission rates than countries people are arriving from. Suspect the science driving this (assuming it's not a politically based policy) is;
> 
> New variants popping up in the future elsewhere
> 
> UK finally getting on top of its cases via the accelerated vaccination program and running through the summer with lower transmission levels than countries people will travel from



Do you need a quarantine hotel when going to and from Kent ?


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## Cirrus (26 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> In 2020 in England and Wales, ONS record 84,449 deaths (date of death in 2020, with COVID-19 on the death certificate).
> Of those 45% were female and 55% were male.
> https://www.*ons.gov.uk*/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
> Edit: deleted
> ...



When I read the article I got the impression that the "two thirds of death were among men" were of all deaths not just teachers:

_"The ONS looked at death rates from coronavirus in England and Wales between 9 March and 28 December 2020.
It found 31 in every 100,000 working-age men and 17 in every 100,000 working-age women had died of Covid-19.
This equated to just under 8,000 deaths among 20-64-year-olds.
But care workers, security guards and people working in certain manufacturing roles died at more than three times the rate of their peers.
Two-thirds of deaths were among men."_


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## Ajax Bay (26 Jan 2021)

@Cirrus - my comments were drawn from the ONS stats, not the BBC report. I'm sure the BBC quote (above) is 'right'.
Maybe the deaths in those of working age is men 67%. Perhaps male work patterns or jobs put them more in harm's way. I don't know.
The 55%/45% male/female figure was for all ages England and Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate in 2020.


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## Cirrus (26 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> @Cirrus - my comments were drawn from the ONS stats, not the BBC report. I'm sure the BBC quote (above) is 'right'.
> Maybe the deaths in those of working age is men 67%. Perhaps male work patterns or jobs put them more in harm's way. I don't know.
> The 55%/45% male/female figure was for all ages England and Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate in 2020.


Indeed, I believe the BBC article is just about working age folk. That said, 8,000 out of just under 100,000 (at the time of publication) are working age, it wasn't until I considered that a bit more closely did I realise just how many of the older generation are bearing the brunt of the epedemic, I obviously knew they were the ones effected the most but the numbers are pretty stark.


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## tom73 (26 Jan 2021)

Here it is folks we've top 100,000 deaths 100,162 this is the cost of failure , this is the cost of putting money before people. 
The true cost however is with all the families are friends that lie behind each one of them. My thoughts go to each and everyone of them.


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## kingrollo (26 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Here it is folks we've top 100,000 deaths 100,162 this is the cost of failure capitalism , this is the cost of putting money before people.
> The true cost however is with all the families are friends that lie behind each one of them. My thoughts go to each and everyone of them.


Just a slight tweak for you


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## tom73 (26 Jan 2021)

Watching Boris I'm lost for words the man has no ounce of self respect some how trying to turn this disaster into some sort of British science overcoming it all. As for having to bare faced cheek to say we remember the heroic effects of health workers lost. Good job I was watching on my MacBook (i'm not damaging it for this worthless sh**) or the TV would be dust.


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## roubaixtuesday (26 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Watching Boris I'm lost for words the man has no ounce of self respect some how trying to turn this disaster into some sort of British science overcoming it all. As for having to bare faced cheek to say we remember the heroic effects of health workers lost. Good job I was watching on my MacBook (i'm not damaging it for this worthless sh**) or the TV would be dust.



I simply can't watch Johnson any more on COVID. His entire false bonhomie act is so repellent to the subject matter, and his casual lies, inappropriate nationalism and basic ignorance offend me beyond words.


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## Mo1959 (26 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Watching Boris I'm lost for words the man has no ounce of self respect some how trying to turn this disaster into some sort of British science overcoming it all. As for having to bare faced cheek to say we remember the heroic effects of health workers lost. Good job I was watching on my MacBook (i'm not damaging it for this worthless sh**) or the TV would be dust.


More waffle. He’s never going to admit they were far too slow in acting in the beginning or using track and trace properly.


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## kingrollo (26 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I simply can't watch Johnson any more on COVID. His entire false bonhomie act is so repellent to the subject matter, and his casual lies, inappropriate nationalism and basic ignorance offend me beyond words.



Unfortunately a considerable amount of people lap it up.

Just wait until someone crossing the channel in a dinghy tests positive for covid.


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## deptfordmarmoset (26 Jan 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> More waffle. He’s never going to admit they were far too slow in acting in the beginning or using track and trace properly.


When he said that he took responsibility for everything the government had done, I immediately asked myself, but does he take responsibility for everything his government *hadn't *done.

(As if Johnson would ever take responsibility for anything that turned out badly.)


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## tom73 (26 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Unfortunately a considerable amount of people lap it up.
> 
> Just wait until someone crossing the channel in a dinghy tests positive for covid.


They have to quarantine unlike big £££ men who have been given your free of covid it's only the plebs who need to do it card.


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## tom73 (26 Jan 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I simply can't watch Johnson any more on COVID. His entire false bonhomie act is so repellent to the subject matter, and his casual lies, inappropriate nationalism and basic ignorance offend me beyond words.



I only watch it to see Whitty carefully and skilfully rip him to bit as he stands and watchers totally oblivious to it.


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## roubaixtuesday (26 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> I only watch it to see Whitty carefully and skilfully rip him to bit as he stands and watchers totally oblivious to it.



The last presser I watched with Johnson in it was when Whitty was asked if the (then new) tier system would work, way back in Autumn.

"Oh no" he answered, "we don't expect it to _work!"_

I paraphrase, but not by much.


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## Mo1959 (26 Jan 2021)

Can we have that UCL professor being interviewed for our next prime minister! Ripped the government’s handling to shreds.


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## mjr (26 Jan 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> Can we have that UCL professor being interviewed for our next prime minister! Ripped the government’s handling to shreds.


Yes, I missed the PM show today because I misjudged the wind direction and only saw her. Operational Researchers are smart cookies, you see! 

It sounds as though getting my head kicked in by the wind in a rainstorm in the dark may have been preferable to seeing the PM speech, though!


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## deptfordmarmoset (26 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Yes, I missed the PM show today because I misjudged the wind direction and only saw her. Operational Researchers are smart cookies, you see!
> 
> It sounds as though getting my head kicked in by the wind in a rainstorm in the dark may have been preferable to seeing the PM speech, though!


I can sum it up for you:
_Wibble-wibble-truly-wibble-deeply-wibble-wibble-sadly-wibble-really-wibble-wibble._​


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## deptfordmarmoset (26 Jan 2021)

I don't know if it's just me but I hate to see the word ''surpass'' to register the ever-increasing death toll. ''Exceed'' sounds like it's less of a target that's been achieved.

Anyhow, something marginally positive: the active rate of infection in Lewisham is now down to its lowest level since Boxing Day.


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## IaninSheffield (26 Jan 2021)

Wonder if Chris Whitty's memoirs are available to pre-order ...


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## tom73 (26 Jan 2021)

IaninSheffield said:


> Wonder if Chris Whitty's memoirs are available to pre-order ...


If they are I can think of a few who will be busy buying up all they can find.


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## tom73 (26 Jan 2021)

Doctors dignified response to today’s news. Somehow I can’t see N10 following it.

View: https://twitter.com/TheBMA/status/1354092795338883073?s=20


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## Salty seadog (27 Jan 2021)

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news...Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1611655747


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## mjr (27 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Doctors dignified response to today’s news. Somehow I can’t see N10 following it.
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/TheBMA/status/1354092795338883073?s=20



N10 is Muswell Hill. How would they follow it?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNgktD2Z91g


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## mjr (27 Jan 2021)

BBC Parliament currently showing questioning of the DVLA Chief Exec about the outbreaks there. The video conference camera is looking up her nose while she's literally hand-waving, grinning and offering written answers in reply to almost every question.


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## Mo1959 (27 Jan 2021)

So after saying they would learn from their mistakes, and the fact that our track and trace system never really got off the ground, they now seem to already be going the wrong way. This sounds like it could have been a real benefit not just for covid but other diseases. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55820109


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## kingrollo (27 Jan 2021)

IaninSheffield said:


> Wonder if Chris Whitty's memoirs are available to pre-order ...



not until Johnson has redcacted them.


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## mjr (27 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> not until Johnson has redcacted them.


Does "redcacted" mean redacting them by spreading caca on the pages he doesn't like?

Is that's what he's been doing with the scientific reports he's given?


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## kingrollo (27 Jan 2021)

No schools open until at least March 8. Going on past form that is March 8 ......well at least until we get to March 7 !!


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## tom73 (27 Jan 2021)

This total fixation on giving dates for things has been part of the problem as if covid has a diary and you can set up an appointment.
It's not helpful and they have a habit of becoming set on then no matter how many warning they get saying don't do it. 
The rules are not the problem , the lockdowns are not the problem. Covid is the problem focus on that and you don't need the rest.
it's looking more likely that even now the penny has dropped.


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## kingrollo (27 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> This total fixation on giving dates for things has been part of the problem as if covid has a diary and you can set up an appointment.
> It's not helpful and they have a habit of becoming set on then no matter how many warning they get saying don't do it.
> The rules are not the problem , the lockdowns are not the problem. Covid is the problem focus on that and you don't need the rest.
> it's looking more likely that even now the penny has dropped.


You mean hasn't dropped.!


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## LCpl Boiled Egg (27 Jan 2021)

I'm struggling to see how having the over 70s vaccinated will make schools a safer place to work.


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## mjr (27 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> This total fixation on giving dates for things has been part of the problem as if covid has a diary and you can set up an appointment.


This time, many of the journalists asking about schools reopening have suggested giving criteria instead of a date, but Team Boris appears to have utterly failed to taken that opportunity! 

"Government to set out lockdown easing plan in the week of 22 February" says the flipper below the news conference. Hopefully they will do better than the last two unlockings and not derestrict multiple things simultaneously (making it very difficult to estimate what had what effect), or even just too fast to reverse a relaxation that sets cases soaring again.


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## Salty seadog (27 Jan 2021)

JVT wins that press conference. He told it as it was with regard to schools. Plain, simple, no ducking.


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## kingrollo (27 Jan 2021)

1700+ deaths day. Cheers Boris - have a good night's sleep.


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## tom73 (27 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> 1700+ deaths day. Cheers Boris - have a good night's sleep.


He's too busy to sleep he's woking on his road map to "steadily reclaim our lives" and the time table with "adjustable element".


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## Ajax Bay (27 Jan 2021)

I wonder if Wednesdays are always way above the rolling average for deaths (those within 28 days of a COVID-19 test on the day of death) being reported? Were there substantially less yesterday and the day before? Is the 7-day average dropping? Pleased to see the UK-wide restrictions are making a difference at last after the cases peaked at Epiphany +1.


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## mjr (27 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I wonder if Wednesdays are always way above the rolling average for deaths (those within 28 days of a COVID-19 test on the day of death) being reported? Were there substantially less yesterday and the day before? Is the 7-day average dropping? Pleased to see the UK-wide restrictions are making a difference at last after the cases peaked at Epiphany +1.


Wednesdays have tended to be the high point of deaths each week, with a few exceptions when big changes are occurring.

There were slightly less yesterday and a lot less Monday and Sunday (as is usual).

The 7-day average has just started to drop slightly (1228 deaths/day down from 1241 yesterday).

I can't understand anyone being pleased about these restrictions, made necessary by that series of Christmas fark ups. A lot of people have died this month because of it.


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## IaninSheffield (27 Jan 2021)

Salty seadog said:


> JVT wins that press conference. He told it as it was with regard to schools. Plain, simple, no ducking.


His final response - "Can children in school mix with each other, become infected, take the infection home, infect their family and contribute to increasing R? Yes!"
That's a wicked problem to be faced with as a govt. (apparently) committed to ensuring quality and equality of eductional provision. Lose - lose?


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## Ajax Bay (27 Jan 2021)

Balance of risk, and yes, a wicked problem which needs action not delay: it has to be answered with the least worse solution. There will be Cassandras aplenty able to advise.
Is the education of children important? Yes. Is the education of children very important? Yes (Unlike work and other stuff, they only have so many days/terms/years in school and the nation needs them to be educated and socially reasonable.) On the 'fixing adate' issue, can you see a school head saying 'please don't give me the earliest date I'm likely to need to open'?
Can schoolchildren travel in a bus to school, in school mix with each other, become infected, take the infection home, and infect their family? Yes.
Can adults in a work place mix with each other, become infected, take the infection home, infect their family? Yes.
Can adults travelling to work on public transport mix with each other, become infected, take the infection home, infect their family Yes.


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## kingrollo (27 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I wonder if Wednesdays are always way above the rolling average for deaths (those within 28 days of a COVID-19 test on the day of death) being reported? Were there substantially less yesterday and the day before? Is the 7-day average dropping? Pleased to see the UK-wide restrictions are making a difference at last after the cases peaked at Epiphany +1.



You should be counsellor to the bereaved

Do you not have one once empathy for the bereaved - rather than trying to put a slant on making Boris look good ?

Has it never occurred to you people tonight have lost father's, sons, brother, sisters ..

It beggars belief it seriously does.


----------



## Salty seadog (27 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Balance of risk, and yes, a wicked problem which needs action not delay: it has to be answered with the least worse solution. There will be Cassandras aplenty able to advise.
> Is the education of children important? Yes. Is the education of children very important? Yes (Unlike work and other stuff, they only have so many days/terms/years in school and the nation needs them to be educated and socially reasonable.) On the 'fixing adate' issue, can you see a school head saying 'please don't give me the earliest date I'm likely to need to open'?
> Can schoolchildren travel in a bus to school, in school mix with each other, become infected, take the infection home, and infect their family? Yes.
> Can adults in a work place mix with each other, become infected, take the infection home, infect their family? Yes.
> Can adults travelling to work on public transport mix with each other, become infected, take the infection home, infect their family Yes.



Is a toughie.


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## tom73 (27 Jan 2021)

Maybe we can start to open schools if the government would as with much of this mess. Look at his other parts of the world have managed it. Without the plucking the next magic solution. Smaller bubbles , take over empty wide open spacers not able to open you don’t need a school for learning, more breaks outdoors and often , ventilate the place, mask up at all times. Set days in and set out of school for given year groups. Forget targets and just let kids learn what they can when they can. It’s mental well-being that matters right now and the welfare and safety of the ones at the bottom. Not learning a joyless curriculum all to pass a test. As with all things right now you can’t expect and believe once you open again it all normal.


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## matticus (27 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> You should be counsellor to the bereaved
> 
> Do you not have one once empathy for the bereaved - rather than trying to put a slant on making Boris look good ?
> 
> ...


He's reporting the facts. You're making an unjustified personal slur.
Is attacking Ajax helping the bereaved?
We're all still alive, and most of us have lost loved ones at some point; why do you think you've got a monopoly on sympathy?

Stupid stupid post


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## PK99 (27 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Maybe we can start to open schools if the government would as with much of this mess. Look at his other parts of the world have managed it. Without the plucking the next magic solution. Smaller bubbles , take over empty wide open spacers not able to open you don’t need a school for learning, more breaks outdoors and often , ventilate the place, mask up at all times. Set days in and set out of school for given year groups. Forget targets and just let kids learn what they can when they can. It’s mental well-being that matters right now and the welfare and safety of the ones at the bottom. Not learning a joyless curriculum all to pass a test. As with all things right now you can’t expect and believe once you open again it all normal.



I've just attended a Burn's Supper - on line Via Zoom.

One of the guys had spent the day invigilating online exams which will form part of the Teacher Assessment or whatever it is called this year.

Some schools are taking control for themselves and delivering as close to normal as they possibly can, without whinging.


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## Johnno260 (28 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> This total fixation on giving dates for things has been part of the problem as if covid has a diary and you can set up an appointment.
> It's not helpful and they have a habit of becoming set on then no matter how many warning they get saying don't do it.
> The rules are not the problem , the lockdowns are not the problem. Covid is the problem focus on that and you don't need the rest.
> it's looking more likely that even now the penny has dropped.



I agree as when the date for said thing comes and passes then people go utterly nuts, it’s a fluid situation and nothing can be taken for granted.

Also people getting restless and jumping onto conspiracy theories isn’t helping as more people seem to be listening to those. 

I torn a relative a new one as they linked a thread on how to get off Covid fines, I said that’s totally irresponsible and undermines efforts I said it’s no different to these lawyers who get people off bannable driving offences by exploiting loopholes, the person did the crime having a letter dispatched a day late doesn’t mean they are innocent. 

He then went on about phoney death numbers, and give him a valid source not from BBC, Sky, Wiki etc so I linked him to the NHS website and he then splits hairs saying they died while having a positive test, I said see valid source and you still split hairs on wording, people don’t die of old age it’s cardiac arrest but it’s the same thing, or another age related thing.

He then links a site that Covid isn’t a HCID now and then compares it to Ebola, I said not many things are in the same league as Ebola thankfully, and while that website does say it’s not classed as HCID it doesn’t then say what it has been classified as.

I also said I know NHS workers one doctor I have known since pre school and another since 2nd school and my wife’s a nurse I have seen the impact on people and trust what they say, I then get my mate in the pub who went to uni and wears a suit believes in flat earth does that make him right? I said my wife is hardly some person at a pub and a life long friend isn’t either.

The point I’m making is many people don’t want to listen, and I’m tired of all this BS, people are trying to do their best and people just see conspiracy, and nonsense in so many things, it’s like being asked to wear a mask is painful, and if that’s how low we have sunk as a society that people are oppressed for being asked to wear a mask, then that’s beyond tragic.


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## mjr (28 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> Also people getting restless and jumping onto conspiracy theories isn’t helping as more people seem to be listening to those.


Some ideas on how to combat this:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/TimHarford/status/1352675619813863427


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2021)

"Pleased to see the UK-wide restrictions are making a difference at last after the cases peaked at Epiphany +1."


mjr said:


> I can't understand anyone being pleased about these restrictions, made necessary by that series of Christmas fark ups. A lot of people have died this month because of it.


I was pleased by the beneficial effect of the restrictions. A lot of our "fathers, sons, brother, sisters" will NOT die next month because of the Tier 4 and then UK-wide restrictions imposed in late December. Restrictions take time to work. Cases peaked on about 7 Jan and I hope the daily death rate (date of death) will drop from this week onwards. Vaccination of the vulnerable elements of society will mean they are spared hospital from now on. And vaccination of all health (NHS et al) and care workers (in Group 2) will mean that they can cope (without losing people to illness and self-isolation) with the extraordinary demands on the NHS. And hopefully take the time off their work pattern should allow them.


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## tom73 (28 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> I agree as when the date for said thing comes and passes then people go utterly nuts, it’s a fluid situation and nothing can be taken for granted.
> 
> Also people getting restless and jumping onto conspiracy theories isn’t helping as more people seem to be listening to those.
> 
> ...



Totally true and is yet still being filled by a massive vacuum of clear, consistent message delivered by someone people trust. What we continue to get is nothing like it. Even when the facts are given by ones who are officially given the job to do it. They are then shot down by the very ones who appointed them. Or ones around them who try to force issues such as fellow MP's (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55839252)

Even main stream media are happy to enforce damaging narratives. On the back of this we have conspiracy theory which is no longer something to laugh at down the pub. But has come of age become well organised and built very skilfully on actual facts which once twisted are then weaved into an even more believable idea. In turn it's become mainstream and even used my ones in power equally they've been happy to promote it. USA is a prime example attacking this by shutting down the source is not the real solution. Knowing why perfically normal pepole turn to believing it all needs to be made clear and understood. Until we tackle this both as in the same way we do with organised crime together with social science. We can't fix this the problem is most of why people turn won't make most of the ones who lord it over us a comfortable read. 

As for being sick of this I'm with you and see and live with the effects this is having on others and are totally behind feeling outrage. Lucky we've not had any of the targeted protests aimed at health workers as they go into work. But it's very much here plenty of stuff has been posted around town for all to read. When you don't think it this can't get lower I was shown this which Mrs 73 get via one of her Nursing friends had posted. It's now been picked up by the BBC handing out verbal on the way into work is one thing but confronting professionals and trying to inferrer with and intimidate them doing the job they wish to do. In the work place by trying to forcibly remove a very sick man for hospital with only one out come he'd die. Shows that society has sank to a very dark place. 

If anyone watchers it not just watch it listen we need to fight this and face up to the damage the vacuum of trusted and believable politics has left us with. Calling it out and poking fun no longer works change need to happen which is much deeper. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55825480


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2021)

Had a great local 100km ride yesterday.
@kingrollo - just pasting what is wrote in here so you can READ it.
"I wonder if Wednesdays are always way above the rolling average for deaths (those within 28 days of a COVID-19 test on the day of death) being reported? Were there substantially less yesterday and the day before? Is the 7-day average dropping? Pleased to see the UK-wide restrictions are making a difference at last after the cases peaked at Epiphany +1."
The answers are: 'yes' 'yes' and 'yes' btw, but you know that (and @mjr has helped in his comment).


kingrollo said:


> You should be counsellor to the bereaved.
> Do you not have one ounce of empathy for the bereaved - rather than trying to put a slant on making Boris look good?
> Has it never occurred to you people tonight have lost father's, sons, brother, sisters ..


I suspect you would be a much better counsellor to the bereaved than me: maybe you are doing this already. If so, many thanks.
I fail to see how you can rationally infer from what I say that I don't have empathy for the bereaved, nor that the loss of additional lives and years of life has not "occurred" to me.
I can't see a "slant" in what I said, nor anything that would "make the PM and our government look good". Please help us here (but not by just making up what you think I might think).
Please try to make useful comments rather than attacking other people (I have counselled you on this a couple of times already). I understand you wind yourself up about this. It is probably not good for you.


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Some ideas on how to combat this:
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/TimHarford/status/1352675619813863427




That was a good article, I tried something similar when I said put aside views on Covid I said the law is the law, and used my speeding example I said regardless if the person got off, they still committed the offence.

He said he saw my point and and would consider what he posts, and this morning all I see if don't wear a mask free yourself and loads of linked posts from Freenation and Qanon, so RiP another relative, I'm hoping Elon starts offering tickets to Mars sooner rather than later.


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## Johnno260 (28 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Totally true and is yet still being filled by a massive vacuum of clear, consistent message delivered by someone people trust. What we continue to get is nothing like it. Even when the facts are given by ones who are officially given the job to do it. They are then shot down by the very ones who appointed them. Or ones around them who try to force issues such as fellow MP's (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55839252)
> 
> Even main stream media are happy to enforce damaging narratives. On the back of this we have conspiracy theory which is no longer something to laugh at down the pub. But has come of age become well organised and built very skilfully on actual facts which once twisted are then weaved into an even more believable idea. In turn it's become mainstream and even used my ones in power equally they've been happy to promote it. USA is a prime example attacking this by shutting down the source is not the real solution. Knowing why perfically normal pepole turn to believing it all needs to be made clear and understood. Until we tackle this both as in the same way we do with organised crime together with social science. We can't fix this the problem is most of why people turn won't make most of the ones who lord it over us a comfortable read.
> 
> ...



It's sadly true, using flat earth as an example they put together really well packaged material, it's quality big budget videos etc, but the substance is utter nonsense, sadly one I know can't accept that I'm not a NASA sheep as I have a telescope and can view objects that are clearly globes! 

The best video I saw was when the purchased a laser gyroscope to prove the earth has no drift (rotation) the thing then displayed the exact and accurate drift, so the live stream ended with them saying the $23k device was obviously faulty! haha 

My wife's hospital hasn't seen protests yet, and thankfully they have secured staff parking, but they have had other issues that I can't speak of, and extra security has been put in place.

But attacking the staff that could potentially be caring for you or a relative? that's beyond low, that actually doesn't compute with me at all..

Clear concise instructions needs to be improved, I get that, all we can hope for is they see the risk and combat it with clear and obvious facts, the hardcore will still dispute it, but we can hope it pulls some of the followers around to a more sane and responsible what of thinking.


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## kingrollo (28 Jan 2021)

Vaccine free for all by me - no letter just turn up if you are over 70....in practice just turn up even if you aren't over 70.

In part this is why the numbers look good - nobody is turned away.

Grab your vaccine while u can !!!


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## tom73 (28 Jan 2021)

Now we've got the other bunch of clowns happy to play the let's discredit the facts. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-...128bba54a69202e80ddfd2&pinned_post_type=share


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2021)

Yes, I heard the interview with Rayner on her proposal to get all teachers vaccinated. The interviewer did, I'm pleased to say, get the clear message across: the ONS statistics for 2020 show that teachers are no more (or less) at risk than the general working age population (corrected for age).
And when asked who should wait while hundreds of thousands of teachers get the first dose, the Rayner (?Opposition) solution was: let's just ramp up the supply/delivery so we can do the teachers 'as well'.
Nevertheless, if getting children back into school and keeping schools open for the scheduled terms depends on teachers not getting ill and not having to self-isolate, there is a good argument for making teachers (and police officers and bus drivers) Group 10 (mid May?).


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## mjr (28 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Yes, I heard the interview with Rayner on her proposal to get all teachers vaccinated. The interviewer did, I'm pleased to say, get the clear message across: the ONS statistics for 2020 show that teachers are no more (or less) at risk than the general working age population (corrected for age). [...]


1. I've not looked at that ONS data yet. Can anyone confirm that they corrected for the different proportion of teachers working from home while schools were closed or operating hybrid/blended models, compared to the proportion of the general working age population working from home?

2. Is it proper that the interviewer put the government message across and was it made clear that it was the government message?


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## matticus (28 Jan 2021)

( @Ajax Bay : )
Exactly. Teachers are more at risk than average because they will ALL be at work! Compared to the average - say - 55yo who is only at work if absolutely necessary.
If our Gov thinks that education is essential, then protecting teachers should be too.


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2021)

I looked at the ONS stats a few days ago (see a few pages back -after @Cirrus 's post iirc). AS ONS stats they obviously don't deal with nuances like wfh and the other stuff you mention. The stats offer data on how many teachers died, then as a proportion, and note that that proportion is the same as the general population. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55795608
Several other worker categories suffered much more (the deduction being that they were (and are) more at risk).
This is not the "government message". This is what the ONS stats tell them (and us). Links back to @tom73 's point that this seemed to be a politician trying to diss the facts.
Edit: See this post et seq: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/page-1107#post-6287851
@matticus Thank you. They are at no more risk than the rest of the population (the average): well, that's what the stats say (I will go looking (again)) . But it's the effect on 28+ children's education of teachers falling ill or having to self-isolate that I think is a driver behind including teachers in Group 10: not the effect of the illness on the teachers themselves.
ETA: (BBC drawing on ONS data - link in line 3 above):
"Among teachers, there were *18 *deaths per 100,000 among men and *10 *per 100,000 among women.
"Breaking that down by role, secondary school teachers appear to have a very slightly elevated risk at *39 *deaths per 100,000 people in men and *21 *per 100,000 in women.
"Per 100,000 men aged 20-64, *31* died in the population as a whole" (and my maths so very roughly, 25 women per 100,000)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...-19-in-teaching-and-educational-professionals


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## BoldonLad (28 Jan 2021)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> I'm struggling to see how having the over 70s vaccinated will make schools a safer place to work.



Could it be that many Grandparents. act as. child minders, delivering children too school, collecting them from school, etc?

It would appear to be the perceived wisdom (I have no idea if it is actually true) that children may well catch Covid, but, their risk of serious harm, as a result, is small. However, that does not prevent them infecting their grandparents, who, possibly, due to age, are at significant risk of serious harm, if infected.

Just a hypothesis, I have no evidence to support it.


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2021)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ndandwalesprovisional/weekending15january2021
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/page-1104#post-6285557
ONS Data - which is exactly the same as the CEBM data presentation I shared earlier, which @Rocky considered 'dodgy'.





'Excess deaths' are represented the area between the two lines. The 5 year average of deaths per week is a little under 10,000. The death rate in a 'normal' January is typically ~30% above that average. This January the weekly death rate is about 70% above that average. At the peak of deaths in April, the rate was 110% above that. Horrendous.


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## Johnno260 (28 Jan 2021)

To me if they want schools open and to remain open, then vaccinate the teachers, it seems common sense and if it put the teachers mind at rest and allows them to teach with more normality then that's a good thing for the teachers and students.

If a school closes due to teachers being sick then parents in theory can't work, I know child care is exempt or was in some lockdown rules.


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## Rocky (28 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ndandwalesprovisional/weekending15january2021
> https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/page-1104#post-6285557
> ONS Data - which is exactly the same as the CEBM data presentation I shared earlier, which @Rocky considered 'dodgy'.
> View attachment 570968
> ...


I didn’t question the data, I questioned CEBM’s interpretation of the data. And if that wasn’t clear, my bad.


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## LCpl Boiled Egg (28 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> To me if they want schools open and to remain open, then vaccinate the teachers, it seems common sense and if it put the teachers mind at rest and allows them to teach with more normality then that's a good thing for the teachers and students.
> 
> If a school closes due to teachers being sick then parents in theory can't work, I know child care is exempt or was in some lockdown rules.



What about the support staff? The schools won't stay open without them either.


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2021)




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## vickster (28 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> View attachment 570977
> 
> 
> View attachment 570978


But the risk surely isn’t solely due to occupation, more age and ethnicity ... which might explain high rates among chefs and Govt admin?


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## Yellow Fang (28 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> To me if they want schools open and to remain open, then vaccinate the teachers, it seems common sense and if it put the teachers mind at rest and allows them to teach with more normality then that's a good thing for the teachers and students.
> 
> If a school closes due to teachers being sick then parents in theory can't work, I know child care is exempt or was in some lockdown rules.


Teachers aren't suffering more than other workers. There are other sectors with death rates twice as bad. They should be vaccinated before teachers.


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## Julia9054 (28 Jan 2021)

vickster said:


> But the risk surely isn’t solely due to occupation, more age and ethnicity ... which might explain high rates among chefs and Govt admin?


The biggest risk of poor outcomes from covid excluding age is deprivation which correlates with occupation


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## vickster (28 Jan 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> The biggest risk of poor outcomes from covid excluding age is deprivation which correlates with occupation


And ethnicity


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## Julia9054 (28 Jan 2021)

Yellow Fang said:


> Teachers aren't suffering more than other workers. There are other sectors with death rates twice as bad. They should be vaccinated before teachers.


There are two ways to look at this. Which occupations are suffering the most deaths or which sectors society needs to be open and fully working.


vickster said:


> And ethnicity


Which also correlates with deprivation


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## mjr (28 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> This is not the "government message".


I read that, boggled and went for a bike ride to do a delivery so I could regain my composure.

I do not feel able to discuss the safety of schools with someone who denies that "schools are safe" has been a government message for something like six months.


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## BoldonLad (28 Jan 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> The biggest risk of poor outcomes from covid excluding age is deprivation which correlates with occupation



Is that so, I thought general health, including obesity was the biggest factor after age ?


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## Julia9054 (28 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> Is that so, I thought general health, including obesity was the biggest factor after age ?


True but many of the health conditions that put someone at higher risk are more common in deprived populations and are less well controlled/managed in deprived populations


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## PK99 (28 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> To me if they want schools open and to remain open, then vaccinate the teachers, it seems common sense and if it put the teachers mind at rest and allows them to teach with more normality then that's a good thing for the teachers and students.
> 
> If a school closes due to teachers being sick then parents in theory can't work, I know child care is exempt or was in some lockdown rules.



The state school workforce is 945,805 Full Time Equivalent
718,980 Teachers plus Teaching assistants
226,825 Admin/Auxilliary/Technicians/other support staff (eg, office, dinner folk, lab techs, playground supervisors etc)

Note, these are Full-Time Equivalent numbers not the number of individuals.
25% of teachers work part-time and a large proportion of the other jobs are part-time by their nature

How many individuals?
I can't get a real handle on that number - but clearly well in excess of 1 Million individuals to prioritize in the Vaccine schedule.

Which 1 Million plus people should be bumped down the priority list to make space for teachers?
(I know everyone gets bumped down, but if it were done now it would be 75/80-year-olds being delayed first)

https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-workforce-in-england


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2021)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> What about the support staff? The schools won't stay open without them either.


Absolutely. This Schools Week article gives useful insight and data:
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/ons-covid...ve-average-but-not-statistically-significant/


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## roubaixtuesday (28 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> Is that so, I thought general health, including obesity was the biggest factor after age ?



Perhaps deprivation makes you much more likely to be exposed: crowded housing, can't afford to isolate, likely to have a high risk occupational. 

Health makes you more likely to suffer a severe or fatal case. 

Of course the two go together as a double whammy.


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## kingrollo (28 Jan 2021)

How long before we do away with priority groups and just let people turn up with an NHS number ? - I know this is happening informally anyway.

One large centre by me, vaccinated under 100 people in one 12 hour shift.

Edit:- numbers of vaccinations well down today - per ITV news.


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2021)

Forgive the I said/ you said.
"The [BBC] interviewer did, I'm pleased to say, get the clear message across: the ONS statistics for 2020 show that teachers are no more (or less) at risk than the general working age population (corrected for age). NB I identify the source of her 'message'.
You asked "Is it proper that the interviewer put the government message across and was it made clear that it was the government message?" NB your introduction of the term "government message".
I said: "This is not the "government message". This is what the ONS stats tell them (and us)."


mjr said:


> I read that, boggled and went for a bike ride to do a delivery so I could regain my composure.
> I do not feel able to discuss the safety of schools with someone who denies that "schools are safe" has been a government message for something like six months.


Perhaps you would have been less boggled if I'd said: "the interviewer repeatedly referred to the ONS stats and asked Rayner whether she thought the stats were wrong / had been misinterpreted." (Which is more or less what I said in the first place.)
It's by and by that the ONS stats show that teachers (as a profession) are not at greater risk than those of the same age and sex in the wider population. Secondary school teachers a bit worse (especially men), primary and early settings a bit less risky (death being the harsh and tragic metric used).
And for the avoidance of doubt, I have every respect for the expertise, dedication and stoicism of teachers in these last 10 months, and am sad to see that over a hundred teachers died last year. And similarly sad that nearly 50 teaching assistants and educational support assistants died. I do not know what the rates are for catching COVID-19 amongst those who provide our children with an education, compared with those of the same age and sex in the wider population.
Did I "deny that 'schools are safe' is/was been a government message? Who do you not want to discuss the safety of schools with?
Edit: deleted
Schools Week:
"The ONS has today published its analysis of Covid-related deaths by occupation. It found that 139 teachers, senior education professionals, education advisers and school inspectors died between March 9 and December 29. Over the same period, 46 teaching assistants and educational support assistants died."
ONS: "Rates of death involving COVID-19 for [teaching and educational professionals] were statistically significantly lower than the rates of death involving COVID-19 among those of the same age and sex, with 18.4 deaths per 100,000 males (66 deaths) and 9.8 deaths per 100,000 females (73 deaths), compared with 31.4 and 16.8 deaths per 100,000 in the population among males and females respectively."


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## BoldonLad (28 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> *How long before we do away with priority groups and just let people turn up with an NHS number ? *- I know this is happening informally anyway.
> 
> One large centre by me, vaccinated under 100 people in one 12 hour shift.
> 
> Edit:- numbers of vaccinations well down today - per ITV news.



No objection, in principle, but, if we were to avoid a social distancing nightmare, and sundry "Black Friday" type problems, I think, we may need just slightly more planning and organisation than "just turn up".


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## Julia9054 (28 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I don not know what the rates are for catching COVID-19 amongst those who provide our children with an education, compared with those of the same age and sex in the wider population


From 1.9x higher for primary and secondary school teachers up to 7x higher for teaching assistants in special schools 
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/fact-check-are-school-staff-at-greater-risk-from-covid-19/


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## tom73 (28 Jan 2021)

A member of JCVI was on news night last night. Asked about this he explained that the remit given was to reduce death in at risk groups. Not to reduce cases. If the government ask's JCVI to revisit it with cases in mind than teachers may have a case. He did basally say that would be totally political. He also made it clear that to move teachers up the list which are at relative low risk means moving other groups at higher risk down the list. 

I've said in the past that if we start setting access to health purely based on social worth. It set's us done a really dark path. 
Access to public health has to be based on sound clinical evidence and taken by trained medical professionals. Guided by clear, debated and sound clinical and moral ethics. Not based on what is a vote winner health is not about being popular but on clinical and health needs. So many public health intervention in the last few years have started as targeted ones. Only to be open up a free for all to get a more votes then when cuts come they go due to the escalating cost of opening them up to all. Vaccines are too important to start down this road. 

If anything a sound clinical case can be made to move up all BEME groups. Given that before any other factors are added are at biggest risk of covid death. But I can't see that winner votes neither would be moving the most poorest in society up the list. Which again a case can made. We could even make a case that as men are at bigger risk so how ever you set the access they get it 1st in each group. Again no one is calling for that. 

Before we even think about messing about with the list can be get the current one done 1st. Then check and check again that we really have done every one as many are still no way near getting the 1st dose. We have to be real about this we don't have enough supply and that's not going to change for some time. We either use it wisely and aim it the right health outcomes or we may as well say if you want one you can buy one. So much of this pandemic has seen political choice taken over public health ones with all the fall it brings. Do we really want yet another made that way with all the public health fall out it would being ?


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## Johnno260 (28 Jan 2021)

LCpl Boiled Egg said:


> What about the support staff? The schools won't stay open without them either.



Sorry I meant school staff.



Yellow Fang said:


> Teachers aren't suffering more than other workers. There are other sectors with death rates twice as bad. They should be vaccinated before teachers.



True but it's an opinion, it means people can be freed up to work.



PK99 said:


> The state school workforce is 945,805 Full Time Equivalent
> 718,980 Teachers plus Teaching assistants
> 226,825 Admin/Auxilliary/Technicians/other support staff (eg, office, dinner folk, lab techs, playground supervisors etc)
> 
> ...



I never said it would be easy, whatever choices are made, someone else will suffer.


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2021)

Really good analysis, @tom73 
So many different aspects to balance. Risk of death or serious illness is a very clear metric which JCVI based their decision on.
"The JCVI advises that the first priorities for the current COVID-19 vaccination programme should be the prevention of COVID-19 mortality and the protection of health and social care staff and systems. Secondary priorities could include vaccination of those at increased risk of hospitalisation and at increased risk of exposure, and to maintain resilience in essential public services."
The JCVI also shared their assessment of the impact on and implications for health inequalities in the prioritisation of COVID-19 vaccines (at Annex A).
Offering a broad comment on the deaths in various occupations etc stats, ONS analyst Ben Humberstone said: "As the pandemic has progressed, we have learnt more about the disease and the communities it impacts most. There are a complex combination of factors that influence the risk of death; from your age and your ethnicity, where you live and who you live with, to pre-existing health conditions."


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> Sorry I meant school staff.
> I never said it would be easy, whatever choices are made, someone else will suffer.


Johnno: Who do you think should suffer, please? People who are at more risk of dying? Not disagreeing, just asking. There's a good argument, in the likely circumstances in the spring, where school staff generally might be given a specific place in the priority table, given the prime importance of getting our children back to proper schooling (and the secondary beneficial effects of that).


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## deptfordmarmoset (28 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ndandwalesprovisional/weekending15january2021
> https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/page-1104#post-6285557
> ONS Data - which is exactly the same as the CEBM data presentation I shared earlier, which @Rocky considered 'dodgy'.
> View attachment 570968
> ...


One thing that intrigues me about the excess death figures is how much social distancing has depressed flu viruses. And then how much a lower incidence of flu and related cases of pneumonia make a the covid death rate less visible.


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## kingrollo (28 Jan 2021)

BoldonLad said:


> No objection, in principle, but, if we were to avoid a social distancing nightmare, and sundry "Black Friday" type problems, I think, we may need just slightly more planning and organisation than "just turn up".



Fair point But maybe move in that direction. Under 100 in 12 hours at one of the major centres is very poor.


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## Johnno260 (28 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Johnno: Who do you think should suffer, please? People who are at more risk of dying? Not disagreeing, just asking. There's a good argument, in the likely circumstances in the spring, where school staff generally might be given a specific place in the priority table, given the prime importance of getting our children back to proper schooling (and the secondary effects of that).



In an ideal situation no one.

People like me I suppose should bear the brunt of being at the bottom on the vaccine list, I’m relatively young, I don’t have any known medical conditions, I’m not a key worker or a teacher.

I never said it was an easy choice, and I’m not qualified to make them.

I will just bow out of the conversation here as I’m tired and probably not making any sense, I wasn’t considering moving teachers up means moving high risk down, any high risk/elderly take priority. 

Sorry again I was being a dunce.


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Under 100 in 12 hours at one of the major centres is very poor.


Agree. I side with @tom73 here. Empower the local health organisation and get local buy-in and organised community support. And encourage the local papers to track and publish how their community is doing.
Weather the next few days will not help. Do you want 75 year olds waiting, socially distanced outside in the wind and rain, or slipping on snow /ice (not down here in Devon, mind)? Will they want to risk that? Some will. Some will leave it till the weather's less malign.


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## classic33 (28 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> In an ideal situation no one.
> 
> People like me I suppose should bear the brunt of being at the bottom on the vaccine list, I’m relatively young, I don’t have any known medical conditions, I’m not a key worker or a teacher.
> 
> ...


Why does expressing your opinion, as valid as any other on here, make you a dunce?

We're all drawing our information from the same places, and basing our opinions on what we feel and what we've read or heard.


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## DRM (29 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Johnno: Who do you think should suffer, please? People who are at more risk of dying? Not disagreeing, just asking. There's a good argument, in the likely circumstances in the spring, where school staff generally might be given a specific place in the priority table, given the prime importance of getting our children back to proper schooling (and the secondary beneficial effects of that).


It's not just school staff, everyone who is having to work, right now, should be getting the jab, in my case I have to travel all over the place, some of the attitude of the management in large distribution warehousing that I sometimes visit is dreadful, the infections are off the scale, yet they refuse to acknowledge what's going on, they don't care as long as orders go out of the door, despite hordes of staff being off with Covid-19, if I get it, then Mrs DRM will get it, it could easily see her off, give the jab to EVERYONE who's vulnerable & in greater risk of catching it.
I took F-i-L for his jab on Saturday, the set up was excellent, from being directed where to park, asked for appointment time, then being summoned through at the allocated time, there was a constant stream of patients through whilst we were waiting, they will have vaccinated a lot of people that day


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## PK99 (29 Jan 2021)

DRM said:


> It's not just school staff, everyone who is having to work, right now, should be getting the jab, in my case I have to travel all over the place, some of the attitude of the management in large distribution warehousing that I sometimes visit is dreadful, the infections are off the scale, yet they refuse to acknowledge what's going on, they don't care as long as orders go out of the door, despite hordes of staff being off with Covid-19, if I get it, then Mrs DRM will get it, it could easily see her off, give the jab to EVERYONE who's vulnerable & in greater risk of catching it.
> I took F-i-L for his jab on Saturday, the set up was excellent, from being directed where to park, asked for appointment time, then being summoned through at the allocated time, there was a constant stream of patients through whilst we were waiting, they will have vaccinated a lot of people that day



You seem to be operating under a common misapprehension that your having the vaccine would be protective for MrsDRM.

That is not the case. 

Members of households containing a shielding person are not on the priority list as vaccination protects from serious disease but there is no evidence that vaccinaction prevents transmission from the vaccinated individual.


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## tom73 (29 Jan 2021)

Mrs 73 last night after yet another 12 hour shift from hell. She had a bit of family news my SIL is getting vaccinated due to being classed as social services. She works via 3rd sector with female asylum seekers. 
Now here's the dub she happily been braking the rules they are always round at her parents via cover of childcare bubble.Even when they got put in tier3 months ago. As if nothing was happening she wanted everyone to meet up a week before Christmas. (All 10 of them 4 households) giving Mrs 73 a massive guilt trip in the process. Her parents are over 70 they've not had a call yet, she all for principles and equality ect yet she's now going this. She not at any bigger risk then most and is not in any priority group. In the mean time big sis who she went out and clapped for every week who can't avoid covid has no idea when she's getting hers. To top it off come early March she will be redundant as the funding has ended. Long before the second dose is given.
The carry on's with the in-laws had got a bit strained with me before this but now...


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## mjr (29 Jan 2021)

All three worrying variants (B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1) have now been found in US, along with a new one first spotted there, CAL.20C. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...earch/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html


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## Johnno260 (29 Jan 2021)

DRM said:


> It's not just school staff, everyone who is having to work, right now, should be getting the jab, in my case I have to travel all over the place, some of the attitude of the management in large distribution warehousing that I sometimes visit is dreadful, the infections are off the scale, yet they refuse to acknowledge what's going on, they don't care as long as orders go out of the door, despite hordes of staff being off with Covid-19, if I get it, then Mrs DRM will get it, it could easily see her off, give the jab to EVERYONE who's vulnerable & in greater risk of catching it.
> I took F-i-L for his jab on Saturday, the set up was excellent, from being directed where to park, asked for appointment time, then being summoned through at the allocated time, there was a constant stream of patients through whilst we were waiting, they will have vaccinated a lot of people that day



I have witnessed the same thing, during the first lockdown when we were told to work from home, the office manager took the decision to send us home, we got an email from further up the food chain saying be at your desk tomorrow or don't come back, it's a USA firm we work for.

A regional manager had to step in and sort it all out, but in the mean time we were in the office, thing is as soon as the US lockdowns were announced they all went home with no issue, and I got a warning for saying oh I see the America first slogan extends to workers outside the USA health care as well... but I have a big mouth so.

We are also getting bombed daily with get vaccinated get back to work, well I can't until it's legal, fact is my work output is way better from home, but that isn't acceptable still! lol I have been working longer hours as well, from 7am to support an Indian site to 11pm to support the New Jersey site.

It's like you said warehouse staff and delivery drivers also working long hours on low salary, and I bet they're getting the "be here or I will find someone who will be" line as well.


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## vickster (29 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> I have witnessed the same thing, during the first lockdown when we were told to work from home, the office manager took the decision to send us home, we got an email from further up the food chain saying be at your desk tomorrow or don't come back, it's a USA firm we work for.
> 
> A regional manager had to step in and sort it all out, but in the mean time we were in the office, thing is as soon as the US lockdowns were announced they all went home with no issue, and I got a warning for saying oh I see the America first slogan extends to workers outside the USA health care as well... but I have a big mouth so.
> 
> ...


I'd be preparing my CV...


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## tom73 (29 Jan 2021)

So it's one year today that the UK had it's first confirmed case from that point on in just less a year we ended up with 100,000 lost lives and countless others left with permeant damage along the way. To think It could have been so different if we'd not followed the money.


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## Johnno260 (29 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> So it's one year today that the UK had it's first confirmed case from that point on in just less a year we ended up with 100,000 lost lives and countless others left with permeant damage along the way. To think It could have been so different if we'd not followed the money.



This and the mental health cost, for bereaved, some health workers I'm sure something akin to PTSD will become evident, it's going to be a very sad point in the history books for sure.


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## Ajax Bay (29 Jan 2021)

Milzy said:


> People think everything will be all tickety boo for the spring. Well it’s going to be death & lock downs on & off for most of the year in reality. The vaccines will only ease the situation not completely make it go away. It will take a full year to get most of the population done. 2022 should be more ‘normal’ apart from the economic damage.


Reaching back to your comment last Saturday after enjoying an excellent ride yesterday.
I'm going to address "deaths", "lock downs" "vaccines easing the situation" and "full year". I don't think it will be "tickety boo for the spring". But I think we might reasonably be more optimistic for the rest, without invoking the wrath of the 'keep 'em locked down till whenever' tendency too much.
The current *death rates are horrendous*. Would that we could use a happier metric but I think there is no option. Nevertheless, this lock down will end, and it will be the last one in UK, till the next pandemic disease. There were 614k deaths in 2020 (England and Wales), so by my maths 1218 excess deaths a week, on average (+11.7%). Mercifully in 2021 in UK an estimate of the excess deaths may be as low as 25000, nearly all occuring (date of death) in January and February.
The daily new cases rate, which is currently <22kpd 7-day average, will continue to fall (from its 60kpd peak on 7 Jan) and will drop to below 10k daily cases (positive tests) reported by late Feb (I predict).





So till March the death rate (as a lagging indicator) though dropping from its 7-day rolling average peak last week (?27 Jan) will still be at levels which mandate continued restrictions (aka 'lock down') imo. And not just because of each and every death, young and old, but also because of the serious illness, mercifully with most recovering. This reads straight across into the stress on the NHS (in all parts of the UK) which is placing unreasonable and unsustainable demands on our NHS staff. And the stress of COVID-19 patients and its complications and frictions mean that other potentially fatal illnesses are taking more of a toll because of lack of NHS resources and because of patient volition (wanting to stay away from hospitals either to minimise the risk of catching COVID-19 or because they don't want to take resources away from (they think) iller patients). *In mid-March the death rate *(by date of death)* will plummet* (my prediction) - a combination of low infection levels and immunisation of the most vulnerable.
Vaccination of the first tranche by 15 Feb (Groups 1-4 - say 12M - takes into account 20% refusals (variety of reasons)) will mean that, by 26 Feb (15 Feb + 11 days) 88% of people who unvaccinated would catch COVID-19, then develop serious illness (some then dying), will NOT (even) develop serious illness. Win! (for those vaccinated, and for the NHS both in terms of numbers of patients and staff illness and self-isolation absence, and probably for all those (1.2M, say) that the 12M don't transmit the infection to - but we haven't got evidence for that.)
*Easing of lock down in March* may (will) have an effect of increasing the R number (R was 0.98 (range of 0.92 to 1.04) on 22 Jan, and dropping, so by March, well below 1.0) but that will be countered (in terms of number of cases) by the reduced number of the population 'in play': ~18% (12M) will have been vaccinated, rising weekly, to which add those who've had COVID-19 and who still have a sufficient level of antibodies - maybe 7M. So the 'new case' rate will be low and probably fall.
These factors and effects mean that reducing the restrictions (aka ending lock down) then will be a reasonable government decision, and one which avoids accusations of delay and procrastination (though no doubt there will be other views and criticisms, and rightly so, we live in an open society).
Provided vaccine supplies remain sufficient (to allow 2.5M doses delivered per week), we should have *vaccinated all the Groups (1-9* - #27M (NB 33M less 20%)) laid out by JCVI *by mid Apr* (all over 50s and and - see JCVI list). NB takes into account that second doses will take about half the delivery from 14 Mar onwards.
The adult (over 16) population of UK is 67M - ONS, (54M adults). At that vaccination rate (2.5M per week, half is second dose) we might hope to reach *herd immunity at 80%* (of adult population so 43M, opinions vary on the percentage required which depends on several factors) *by early July*. (NB I am not counting in any of the unvaccinated million + who've had COVID-19 and retained sufficient antibodies to get to 80%.) So rather better than the “*full year*”. The summer months (the average number of excess deaths mid-Jun to mid-Sep 2020 was very low) will also help. And in July and August the remainder (10M) of the adult population (O/16) and vulnerable under 16s (clinical judgement at this stage) can be vaccinated. If the decision is taken to vaccinate under 16s, this might neatly be achieved by doing so on in the first week of term.
Summer holiday in UK everyone? Let's hope for good weather and tailwinds.


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## Ajax Bay (29 Jan 2021)

REACT-1: real-time assessment of community transmission of coronavirus (COVID-19) in January 2021 
Findings from the eighth report of REACT, into levels of infection 6-22 Jan show infections in England have flattened, with signs of decline at the end of the reporting period.
"The NHS is under significant pressure in England with over 37,000 people in hospital with the virus, twice as many as the first peak in April. 4,076 people are on ventilators, more than at any time in the pandemic.
"Levels of infection varied across the regions and was highest in London, with 1 in 35 people infected, and nationally highest among those aged 18 to 24.

national prevalence was 1.57%, or 1570 per 100,000 people infected
national R is estimated at 0.98 with a range of 0.92 to 1.04
regional prevalence was highest in London at 2.83%
East of England at 1.78%
West Midlands at 1.66%
South East at 1.61%
North West at 1.38%
North East at 1.22%
East Midlands at 1.16%
Yorkshire and the Humber 0.80%
South West at 0.87%
prevalence increased nationally in all adult age groups and was highest in 18 to 24 year olds at 2.44%. Prevalence in the over 65s is 0.93%
large household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and black and Asian ethnicity were more likely to test positive compared to smaller households, less deprived neighbourhoods and other ethnicities
healthcare and care home workers, and other key workers were more likely to test positive compared to other workers"
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/latest-findings-from-covid-19-study-published-january-2021


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## deptfordmarmoset (29 Jan 2021)

A snapshot of Lewisham (London) active covid cases from the Zoe app, which has tended to precede ONS data. Now down to pre-Christmas levels.


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## mjr (29 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> [...] Nevertheless, this lock down will end, and it will be the last one in UK, till the next pandemic disease.


I think that is a very optimistic prediction. There are still loads of ways we could end up with a fourth covid lockdown (with or without a fourth wave), including ending this lockdown too early or too fast, or the high case numbers globally enabling a variation that resists the current vaccine, amongst many other ways.

That remains the biggest problem with this crisis: it only takes one government and/or population to fark up basically just on one aspect and to be unlucky and this damned virus kills thousands more and sets us back months.



> There were 614k deaths in 2020 (England and Wales), so by my maths 1218 excess deaths a week, on average (+11.7%).


As others have noted, that measure does ignore the effect of the anti-covid measures in reducing deaths from other respiratory illnesses.

I also want to remind people that this is not just about deaths, but also lives that will be shortened or impaired by so-called "long covid" effects.

I hope the predictions are correct, mostly because I don't want more deaths but also because I'd like to go for a tour this summer, but they really do seem very optimistic.



deptfordmarmoset said:


> A snapshot of Lewisham (London) active covid cases from the Zoe app, which has tended to precede ONS data. Now down to pre-Christmas levels.


Alternative interpretation: back down to the level when we should have locked down instead of people having Christmas parties (not legal in Lewisham but I bet many did). Actually, that looks a bit like Lewisham is back down to 150% of the level at the start of Lockdown 2, which is about the national average.

Which is still about 2000% of what it was when they started easing Lockdown 1, if I'm reading the graphs correctly...


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## deptfordmarmoset (29 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Alternative interpretation: back down to the level when we should have locked down instead of people having Christmas parties (not legal in Lewisham but I bet many did). Actually, that looks a bit like Lewisham is back down to 150% of the level at the start of Lockdown 2, which is about the national average.
> 
> Which is still about 2000% of what it was when they started easing Lockdown 1, if I'm reading the graphs correctly...


Levels here were low and stable from the end of lockdown 1 until the schools went back, when they started climbing up again. That's when I started keeping a tally of the local situation. It's notable that there wasn't a November bulge here, though I was strongly in favour of having an extended half term ''circuit breaker''. And then I watched the B1.1.1.7 strain working its way west along the Thames (and ripping through S Wales) before exploding here with the aid of the Christmas insanity.


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## Johnno260 (29 Jan 2021)

With the whole lockdown and when it ends debate, I don’t listen to dates advised as it’s a fluid situation, things change and then we get a flood or angry people.

I find it easier to just say it ends when it ends.


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## tom73 (29 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> This and the mental health cost, for bereaved, some health workers I'm sure something akin to PTSD will become evident, it's going to be a very sad point in the history books for sure.


That’s a real big unknown and unless they are beavering away on a plan now. It’s going to make staff shortages now look nothing. Many who are 50/50 about leaving before may well now leave. With an ageing nursing work force and the ever growing shortage in GP’S. Unless big plans are put in place now it going to to to see health left in a poor state. At a time it’s going to be expected to deal with the post mess.

The bereavement post covid will be massive and it’s hardly been talked about. I also suspect a big increase in survivor guilt as well adding to the work load , add in the mental health effect on young people the massively already overloaded CAMS will need more funding and a plan too. 

Fulling the health services with less qualified cheeper roles as they’ve been going just won’t cut the post Covid health needs. The government will need to really turn on the money tap across the board.


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## mjr (29 Jan 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> With the whole lockdown and when it ends debate, I don’t listen to dates advised as it’s a fluid situation, things change and then we get a flood or angry people.
> 
> I find it easier to just say it ends when it ends.


If only Johnson would take a leaf out of your book and stop giving hostages to fortune.


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## Beebo (30 Jan 2021)

Arrgh this just makes me angry.
Hairdresser everywhere are closed but this bloke is still cutting footballers hair and defends it by saying everyone is breaking the rule and I have cost to cover.

Then blames the guy for posting it on social media. 

daffodil

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-55870959


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## DRM (30 Jan 2021)

Pair of idiots, overpaid Wendy baller, and I saw you coming barber, lock the pair of them up


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## potsy (30 Jan 2021)

It's OK, it was part of a photoshoot


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## DRM (30 Jan 2021)

potsy said:


> It's OK, it was part of a photoshoot


I think they should forget about the photo part of that statement and do us all a favour


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## deptfordmarmoset (30 Jan 2021)

The Long Man of Wilmington appears to have been shamed into wearing a mask...it's since been removed.


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## fossyant (30 Jan 2021)

Your social media is very 'public' - what a bunch of idiots.


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## vickster (30 Jan 2021)

Beebo said:


> Arrgh this just makes me angry.
> Hairdresser everywhere are closed but this bloke is still cutting footballers hair and defends it by saying everyone is breaking the rule and I have cost to cover.
> 
> Then blames the guy for posting it on social media.
> ...


Hopefully the authorities have added a 10k fine to the costs he needs to cover... muppet


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## classic33 (30 Jan 2021)

Beebo said:


> Arrgh this just makes me angry.
> Hairdresser everywhere are closed but this bloke is still cutting footballers hair and defends it by saying everyone is breaking the rule and I have cost to cover.
> 
> Then blames the guy for posting it on social media.
> ...


Police are staking out this one in Oakenshaw, fined £17,000 already.
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news...e-quinn-blakey-hairdressing-lockdown-19733600


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## IanSmithCSE (31 Jan 2021)

Good morning,

I expect to be told that I don't understand how dangerous COVID is, that I don't understand the risks and I think I know the level of abuse that is about to come my way, but I feel that we have long gone past the point where we should be seeing people breaking restrictions as automatically in the wrong.

We should be really trying to understand and address the issues and motivations behind this behaviour and this includes changing our owns minds and saying that yes, actually their actions are reasonable.

The government supported by the media has succeeded in a very successful "divide and conquer" campaign, by offering salary support schemes around 70%-85% of the population has been pretty much unaffected financially over the last 10 months.

Which does of course mean that 15% to 30% have been left with little or no support.

I say 70%-85% because it is one of those numbers that is pretty much impossible to get the correct real world figures for as there are so many reasonable ways to do the counting.

It is very easy if you are one of those unaffected to get very judgemental when those who have been left high and dry for close on a year with their businesses closed and little or no financial support, do anything to try and pay their bills. 

Typically the response on the lack of financial support has been that those who are unsupported or marginally supported are tax dodgers or similar who don't deserve any sympathy, rather than the reality.

And then they are told that they should suck up being closed for 10+ months without any income because it is for the good of the country. 
During the closures in early 2020 you could even make a strong case for this, but with the number of people now working with official approval, the businesses that are left closed are mostly those that lack political power and are easy targets as their closure is not critical to those working or still not working but being paid anyway.

Keeping these businesses closed is politically useful as it creates an impression of a good strong government doing its best to control the situation and allows the government to keep power's that are "for the public good" even if these closures have little or no effect.

It makes it easy not to question the governments actions and the consequence of those actions because "I am a responsible person helping to prevent the spread of a genuinely harmful virus and this takes priority over everything else". Once you start asking what that "everything else" is and what those consequences are your priorities may change, or they may not.

Of the closed businesses I accept that the pub trade would have been expected to be politically powerful, but there is general public support by those having their salary paid by the government or are allowed to work, that they are getting grants anyway so its no real loss anyway and "oh, it's not my business/job".

There is a little piece by a wet-led pub owner here https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk...bs-trade-successfully-with-Covid-restrictions which also addresses this issue. 

Bye

Ian


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## Ajax Bay (31 Jan 2021)

UK Deaths (7-day average, within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test, by date of death)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths




Graph on 30 Jan.
First derivative was zero on 17 Jan. Note that reported infections peaked on about 1 Jan and hospital admissions on 9 Jan.


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## PK99 (31 Jan 2021)

Just in case anyone doubts that really dangerous stuff is still doing the rounds on Facebook, this being shared on FB by a local Homeopath cum Conspiracy Theorist.

The early part is skippable after a minute or so to get the gist, skip to minute 11 for the real conspiracy nut site owner


View: https://www.bitchute.com/video/CxsCSvb2FdFS/?fbclid=IwAR0E8RB7BBataqylfdOQjgiQrLLGnSG7yn-A1sPiJiqgsY2qlptKqasJbds

and:


_I’m going to make it as clear as I can to everyone.
This Entire Global Pandemic is a Trojan Horse. The “Virus” is actually the nanotechnology in our bodies and it’s Triggered by 50Hz Frequency (5G)
It’s a switch they can flip to assault people internally and scare the rest into lining up for-
A Global Biometric Implant Agenda.
*ID2020. Bill Hates is the architect and you can read all about it on his website.
That’s what it’s all about. Getting the Software in Every man, woman and child to monitor and control behavior. To generate Real Time Data to be used in the SWS. To make a Cyborg out of humans.
They have been planning this for YEARS and the big players all left a detailed paper trail describing their intentions to do just this. The fact that Bill farking Gates is the man for the job and also the man credited with CREATING the first computer VIRUS is pretty much a smoking gun. Why else would he be the one calling the shots the whole time? Keep in mind he has ZERO medical certification. Coincidentally he steps down as CEO of Microsoft 6 months prior to the Rona.
Do you understand?
MODERNA has admitted their “vaccine” is actually an Operating System. WINDOWS



to the mind._


----------



## Pale Rider (31 Jan 2021)

A group of house party goers in Essex have become the first to 'benefit' from the new £800 fines for those involved in a gathering of more than 15.

Words (almost) fail me to describe the stupidity of their behaviour, but the Essex cops pic indicates lots of soft drinks in the kitchen.

At least the party goers may have been taking their drink driving responsibilities seriously.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-55878952


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## tom73 (31 Jan 2021)

classic33 said:


> Police are staking out this one in Oakenshaw, fined £17,000 already.
> https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news...e-quinn-blakey-hairdressing-lockdown-19733600



Brings to mind a question as currently the law says they can't trade. But they do so then that's an unlawful activity. Wonder if anything was to happen and they had call to claim on insurance. As the actively would be unlawful can't see a claim going down well. Now if they have a mortgage or bank load and they require the insurance in place. Then the £17K won't be the only thing they have to worry about.


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## deptfordmarmoset (31 Jan 2021)

^^That's a Mundane news post if ever I saw one, @fossyant


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## PK99 (31 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> Cottage pie for tea. I think there is more veg in it than beef ! Whole pack of chantenay carrots grated, large onion diced, a whole pack of fine beans chopped and two cartons of passata ! Oh and of course mash ! Also got left over to freeze !



Lay an extra place, I'm on my way!


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## tom73 (31 Jan 2021)

Shift action we can can only dream of one case and a state is locked down. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150


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## Rocky (31 Jan 2021)

fossyant said:


> Cottage pie for tea. I think there is more veg in it than beef ! Whole pack of chantenay carrots grated, large onion diced, a whole pack of fine beans chopped and two cartons of passata ! Oh and of course mash ! Also got left over to freeze !


This is the sort of post we should see more of!! Food


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## aferris2 (31 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Shift action we can can only dream of one case and a state is locked down.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150


...and a list of possible exposure sites link. Shows how things can be done.


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## midlife (31 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Shift action we can can only dream of one case and a state is locked down.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150



They also mention it may well be the UK variant so I guess they are being even more cautious


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## Ajax Bay (31 Jan 2021)

If anyone thinks that vaccination is going to result in reducing cases quickly, by itself, take a look at Israel's current experience.
They've vaccinated nearly half their population and yet their current daily cases are 78 per 100,000 (7-day average). (This is over twice the UK-wide rate, and worse than the worst borough in UK.)
https://covid19.eng.ox.ac.uk/tracker.html
I wonder if widespread vaccination has meant less adherence to prudent transmission-minimising behaviours? If so that's a lesson we need to keep clearly in mind.


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## AuroraSaab (31 Jan 2021)

Isn't that because signs of infection can take up to14 days to show and because full immunity after the 2nd jab doesn't kick in for 12 days or more? So theoretically, on the 12th day after you got the jab you could be infected with covid, but not show symptoms until 14 days later. The stats will lag behind at least a couple of weeks I guess.

Israel have done an amazing job in getting people vaccinated though and in a way it's useful to have one country ahead of the rest as their data can inform procedures elsewhere.

I do think there will be a general fall into complacency once the jabs are done, especially amongst the young. Hopefully they will keep the mask requirement and social distancing regs for quite a while. 

I have to say, after the sheer heartbreak and tragedy of the last year, the fast roll out of the vaccine is such a welcome bit of light at the end of the tunnel. 600k given yesterday in the UK.


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## nickyboy (31 Jan 2021)

West Australia goes into 5 day UK-style lockdown over one case. Politically motivated decision as elections are coming in March and these lockdowns are generally vote winners in Oz.

However to go from "fully open" to "fully closed" with virtually no notice is causing uproar. Hospitality had been buying perishable products full steam ahead for the summer trade.....


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## fossyant (31 Jan 2021)

PK99 said:


> Lay an extra place, I'm on my way!



Wrong thread - what a plonker I am.


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## classic33 (31 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Brings to mind a question as currently the law says they can't trade. But they do so then that's an unlawful activity. Wonder if anything was to happen and they had call to claim on insurance. As the actively would be unlawful can't see a claim going down well. Now if they have a mortgage or bank load and they require the insurance in place. Then the £17K won't be the only thing they have to worry about.


Breaking the court order preventing her from opening will be a bigger problem.


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## tom73 (31 Jan 2021)

classic33 said:


> Breaking the court order preventing her from opening will be a bigger problem.


If things get really bad and it gets to court orders to get fines paid and she ends up bring locked up. She then really got things to worry about she will soon understand covid is not to be messed with.


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## tom73 (31 Jan 2021)

nickyboy said:


> West Australia goes into 5 day UK-style lockdown over one case. Politically motivated decision as elections are coming in March and these lockdowns are generally vote winners in Oz.
> 
> However to go from "fully open" to "fully closed" with virtually no notice is causing uproar. Hospitality had been buying perishable products full steam ahead for the summer trade.....



Right and the way we've gone about it is not at all politically motivated at all is ? 
Remind me how many months has Australia had now living on the whole as before?
Oh and just what is the death total for Australia give you a clue is less than we have in month. 
If you ask the family and friends of the 100,000 and growing that have lost someone I'm sure they'd be happy with a quick lockdown that's Politically motivated than the politically motivated balls up we've had to live with.


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## classic33 (31 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> If things get really bad and it gets to court orders to get fines paid and she ends up bring locked up. She then really got things to worry about she will soon understand covid is not to be messed with.


It's got that far. She's prevented from opening until the end of March, by order of the court. She set out to break that order, as part of a nationwide protest on Saturday.

Police were waiting for her, as she'd made it known, on twitter & facebook, she would be opening.

She'll be back in court again.


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## aferris2 (31 Jan 2021)

tom73 said:


> Oh and just what is the death total for Australia give you a clue is less than we have in month.


Actually, according to Worldometers, it's 909 so sadly about the same as our average *per day* at the moment.
We were in WA when this whole thing kicked off last year and from the end of March until the beginning of June we did not move from the campsite we were in (and there were police patrols everywhere to make sure no one went anywhere). I get that overall Australia has a lower population density than the UK, but it's not much different in the cities. Australia acted fast and hard and it has meant a faster return to "normal".
They've got their own problems now because the numbers are so low (see here). One case and its instant lockdown, but hopefully this will be just for the 5 days. It's interesting looking at the number of international cases that are getting in (but only to quarantine) even though numbers are severely limited and testing is in place before flying into the country.


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## tom73 (31 Jan 2021)

aferris2 said:


> Actually, according to Worldometers, it's 909 so sadly about the same as our average *per day* at the moment.
> We were in WA when this whole thing kicked off last year and from the end of March until the beginning of June we did not move from the campsite we were in (and there were police patrols everywhere to make sure no one went anywhere). I get that overall Australia has a lower population density than the UK, but it's not much different in the cities. Australia acted fast and hard and it has meant a faster return to "normal".
> They've got their own problems now because the numbers are so low (see here). One case and its instant lockdown, but hopefully this will be just for the 5 days. It's interesting looking at the number of international cases that are getting in (but only to quarantine) even though numbers are severely limited and testing is in place before flying into the country.


The use of the word month was more about a making the point that is less then we we’ve had all round.
What ever issues they have they’d already had inquires into them and learned. We however carry on going round and round.


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## Buck (31 Jan 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> If anyone thinks that vaccination is going to result in reducing cases quickly, by itself, take a look at Israel's current experience.
> They've vaccinated nearly half their population and yet their current daily cases are 78 per 100,000 (7-day average). (This is over twice the UK-wide rate, and worse than the worst borough in UK.)
> https://covid19.eng.ox.ac.uk/tracker.html
> I wonder if widespread vaccination has meant less adherence to prudent transmission-minimising behaviours? If so that's a lesson we need to keep clearly in mind.



The vaccination programme at present is very much about lowering the level of infection that an individual experiences and symptoms that whilst concerning will not lead to hospitalisation.

Indeed it may be that those vaccinated can carry the virus but are effectively asymptomatic. Too early to say. They don’t have the research evidence yet.

I know of two people that have had the vaccine (both doses) yet their antibody testing has come back negative i.e. no anti-bodies developed


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## mjr (31 Jan 2021)

Buck said:


> Indeed it may be that those vaccinated can carry the virus but are effectively asymptotic.


Asymptotic as in they tend to be asymptomatic but never quite actually get there?


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## Buck (31 Jan 2021)

mjr said:


> Asymptotic as in they tend to be asymptomatic but never quite actually get there?



that’ll be the one! Now corrected.


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## rockyroller (31 Jan 2021)

Daughter's boyfriend tested positive & has to quarantine. no symptoms at this point. he's some distance away & she hasn't seem him for about 3 weeks, so she's in the clear. she's not sure she can see him anytime soon. they planned a get together mid-February


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## midlife (31 Jan 2021)

Wonder why he was tested without symptoms?


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## rockyroller (1 Feb 2021)

midlife said:


> Wonder why he was tested without symptoms?


A group of ppl where he works had to be tested because someone in the group had covid. I don’t know any details about what got the ball rolling


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## PK99 (1 Feb 2021)

Interesting article in the Grauniad today,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/c...aking-culture-covid-deaths-societies-pandemic
(the article is by Author of the original paper)


_ In research that tracked more than 50 countries, published this week in the Lancet Planetary Health, my team and I show that, taking into account other factors, loose cultures had five times the number of cases that tight cultures did, and more than eight times as many deaths.

Remarkably, our analysis of data from the UK firm YouGov revealed that people in loose cultures had far less fear of the Covid-19 virus throughout 2020, even as cases skyrocketed. In tight nations, 70% of people were very scared of catching the virus. In loose cultures, only 49% were.

[ Relative to the US, the UK, Israel, Spain and Italy, countries like Singapore, Japan, China and Austria have been shown to be much tighter.]_


with the original Lancet paper here:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30301-6/fulltext

*Findings*
_The results indicated that, compared with nations with high levels of cultural tightness, nations with high levels of cultural looseness are estimated to have had 4·99 times the number of cases (7132 per million vs 1428 per million, respectively) and 8·71 times the number of deaths (183 per million vs 21 per million, respectively), taking into account a number of controls. A formal evolutionary game theoretic model suggested that tight groups coordinate much faster and have higher survival rates than loose groups. The results suggest that tightening social norms might confer an evolutionary advantage in times of collective threat._


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## SpokeyDokey (1 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> Interesting article in the Grauniad today,
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/c...aking-culture-covid-deaths-societies-pandemic
> (the article is by Author of the original paper)
> 
> ...



Interesting article and maybe something to factor into the post-pandemic debate.

Maybe this is why we are seeing the current problems in the Netherlands?


----------



## Oldhippy (1 Feb 2021)

I see Ryanair are proclaiming summer will be fine to travel abroad! I suspect this is more to have cash in the bank than on any real evidence. If they do know it will be fine the government should maybe defer to Ryanair for advice. Why would anyone even contemplate believing this to be true? Judging by lockdown, ease up, lockdown, ease up just to see it run riot again must surely see it isn't over by a long shot just yet. Worrying that people are so eager throw caution aside and pretend it's all good from an arbitrary date.


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## tom73 (1 Feb 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> I see Ryanair are proclaiming summer will be fine to travel abroad! I suspect this is more to have cash in the bank than on any real evidence. If they do know it will be fine the government should maybe defer to Ryanair for advice. Why would anyone even contemplate believing this to be true? Judging by lockdown, ease up, lockdown, ease up just to see it run riot again must surely see it isn't over by a long shot just yet. Worrying that people are so eager throw caution aside and pretend it's all good from an arbitrary date.



Hancock even believes it's he's on the recored as saying we can look forward to great British Summer he's off to Cornwall already booked it.


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## Oldhippy (1 Feb 2021)

Ridiculous in my opinion. Maybe someone high up has given the virus a stiff talking to and made it clear that people want to carry on as normal. 🤣


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## Ajax Bay (1 Feb 2021)

Booking a summer holiday gives people something to look forward to. Don't you think that's a good idea? Cornwall sounds an excellent option. Or (insert British Isles venue of choice). If people don't book now, all the best places will be full up. With a reasonable tailwind the UK will have achieved herd immunity by the time the schools break up, and hospitalisation and death rates will be back to 'normal year' levels (just as they were from mid-June to mid-September last year) - in fact they'll almost certainly be lower, for obvious reasons.
This doesn't mean that the precautions we are taking across the country at present can be lifted this month, but their effect, and that of the vaccination programme removing the vulnerable 88% from even hospitals (at least with COVID-19), will lay the foundations for the summer, drastically ease the extraordinary pressure on the NHS, and allow the country to get back to work, enabling the economy to recover (in part to help pay for the NHS).


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## Oldhippy (1 Feb 2021)

Working on the assumption it doesn't mutate again of course. Not a bet I would place money on myself.


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## Ajax Bay (1 Feb 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Working on the assumption it doesn't mutate again of course. Not a bet I would place money on myself.


Working on the assumption that the vaccination programme is effective, in both rate and effectiveness.
Not a bet any bookie would take. The virus (all viruses) mutate all the time. The issue is whether COVID-19 throws out a variant which the current set of vaccines show low effectiveness against and is at least as transmissible as the original, and even then the world fails to control it.
And that's a bet which leaders across the world are making: I suggest the odds are good.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55534727


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Working on the assumption that the vaccination programme is effective, in both rate and effectiveness.
> Not a bet any bookie would take. The virus (all viruses) mutate all the time. The issue is whether COVID-19 throws out a variant which the current set of vaccines show low effectiveness against and is at least as transmissible as the original, and even then the world fails to control it.
> And that's a bet which leaders across the world are making: I suggest the odds are good.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55534727



The J&J vaccine showed good effectiveness, albeit somewhat reduced, against that variant. 

Which seems to be the general expectation; variants which modulate immune effectiveness are expected, but entire new strains, which entirely escape immune response, not so much.


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## mjr (1 Feb 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Ridiculous in my opinion. Maybe someone high up has given the virus a stiff talking to and made it clear that people want to carry on as normal. 🤣


They reached an agreement. Boris shook hands with it(!)


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## mjr (1 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Booking a summer holiday gives people something to look forward to. Don't you think that's a good idea?


Hell no! That's the sort of tactic you do with small children to get them to shut up until closer to the deadline. Ministers should treat adults like, well, adults. The problem will be solved when it's solved and it depends on what we all do.



> Cornwall sounds an excellent option. Or (insert British Isles venue of choice). If people don't book now, all the best places will be full up.


 That was a partly-political broadcast by the British Tourist Boards. After lockdown 1, we booked a trip at about a week's notice and all the places we stayed were top-notch — and we were nothing like as nationally farked then. I would be astonished if things are more booked-up after lockdowns 3 and 4.



> With a reasonable tailwind [...]


Oh please! The only "tail wind" lately is the guff emanating from below ministers' tails that they desperately lip-sync along to when stood at the press conference podium. I see Hancock is hosting today's 5pm attention-seeking show. Would anyone like to bet that he actually has anything to say or show which wouldn't be better in a short statement to Parliament that could be reported and questioned normally?


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## Electric_Andy (1 Feb 2021)

I've had an e-mail today from "Luxury Lodges", urging me to book a summer holiday now. I can't help but feel this is their idea of an interest free loan. Book and pay a deposit (the nice lodges are upwards of £400/night), we have your money until August...oh wait we're not allowed to go on holiday...no problem we'll keep your deposit and defer your booking.

but something tells me the UK cannot afford not to open up for summer. My guess is they'll open everything, but you'll still have to wear masks etc and keep 2m apart, much like last summer. Only this time the high risk groups will hopefully be shileding, becasue everyone else will have had the vaccine and think they're immune from both catching and spreading it


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## SpokeyDokey (1 Feb 2021)

SA variant now spotted in several parts of England according to BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55889391


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## Ajax Bay (1 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> I would be astonished if things are more booked-up after lockdowns 3 and 4.


Could I just check with you? Is the current lockdown 'Lockdown 3'? After we've 'stayed home', if we 'Stay Alert', don't you think we'll avoid the small risk of Lockdown 4?


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## DCLane (1 Feb 2021)

Electric_Andy said:


> I've had an e-mail today from "Luxury Lodges", urging me to book a summer holiday now. I can't help but feel this is their idea of an interest free loan. Book and pay a deposit (the nice lodges are upwards of £400/night), we have your money until August...oh wait we're not allowed to go on holiday...no problem we'll keep your deposit and defer your booking.
> 
> but something tells me the UK cannot afford not to open up for summer. My guess is they'll open everything, but you'll still have to wear masks etc and keep 2m apart, much like last summer. Only this time the high risk groups will hopefully be shileding, becasue everyone else will have had the vaccine and think they're immune from both catching and spreading it



That's been SWMBO's and my thoughts about going on holiday this summer. Little chance of going overseas but we _might_ get a chance in the UK, but unlikely.

The government won't be honest and say we'll be under restrictions for all of this year because the population won't follow guidelines and there'll be riots.


----------



## Ajax Bay (1 Feb 2021)

David - we will be under some restrictions for the rest of the year. I don't think government ministers are generally saying that the population won't be under restrictions before the end of the year. Perhaps I have not been listening/looking hard enough.
Looks like Ireland for your family holiday, then. SWMBO will thoroughly deserve it (and give her something to look forward to).


----------



## mjr (1 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Could I just check with you? Is the current lockdown 'Lockdown 3'?


Yes and yes.



> After we've 'stayed home', if we 'Stay Alert', don't you think we'll avoid the small risk of Lockdown 4?


No, I think it's unlikely. I think there's a fairly narrow path through this without more lockdown after March and there are plenty of ways to slip up and land in the shoot again, including many mistakes made in 2020 which gov.uk shows little sign yet of having learned from.

I think lockdown is more likely to be needed if we suffer more shoot messaging like "Stay Alert" again, if we get more "too little too late" restrictions that the scientists — from the outset — do not expect to be sufficient, or if restrictions keep on appearing to be semi-detached from the reality of the numbers. I also fear that, if a lockdown is needed, Johnson will probably dither and delay yet again.

Ask yourself: did "stay alert" work last time? What will "stay alert" even mean next time? With the UK track record so far, why do you feel it is "the small risk"?


----------



## kingrollo (1 Feb 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> I see Ryanair are proclaiming summer will be fine to travel abroad! I suspect this is more to have cash in the bank than on any real evidence. If they do know it will be fine the government should maybe defer to Ryanair for advice. Why would anyone even contemplate believing this to be true? Judging by lockdown, ease up, lockdown, ease up just to see it run riot again must surely see it isn't over by a long shot just yet. Worrying that people are so eager throw caution aside and pretend it's all good from an arbitrary date.


Well Jono has brought it....said he optimistic people can have summer holidays this year.


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## kingrollo (1 Feb 2021)

Work colleague gone down with Covid over the weekend. Pretty poorly as in confined to bed.

She had the covid (Pfizer) jab on Jan 14.


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Work colleague gone down with Covid over the weekend. Pretty poorly as in confined to bed.
> 
> She had the covid (Pfizer) jab on Jan 14.



You would not expect the Pfizer jab to provide much protection on that timescale from the data published to date. 

Emphasises the importance of keeping the social distancing up post vaccination (not at all suggesting your colleague didn't - more a reflection for the rest of us).

Best wishes for recovery.


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## Oldhippy (1 Feb 2021)

When Boris shows me his qualifications as a specialist in new contagious viral infections I will check the university exists and then triple check with actual real specialists in the plural then read the evidence and only the come up with a decision. What I won't do is listen to a government who puts economics over human life and panders to populist politics.


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Well Jono has brought it....said he optimistic people can have summer holidays this year.



We had an excellent summer holiday in France last year. Travelled by car, socially distanced whilst there to the same extent we were here ie very much.

I don't see a good reason why the same should not be possible this year, dependent on case rates at the time, of course.

Flying, I wouldn't much fancy, and sterotypical partying holidays a very bad idea.


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## tom73 (1 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Well Jono has brought it....said he optimistic people can have summer holidays this year.


He's going to be setting out more later this month "about the way ahead" and that "people should certainly be able to plan on that basis".
So no need to panic buy the bog roll we will have plenty of time to stock up in the mean time.


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## Electric_Andy (1 Feb 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> We had an excellent summer holiday in France last year. Travelled by car, socially distanced whilst there to the same extent we were here ie very much.
> 
> I don't see a good reason why the same should not be possible this year, dependent on case rates at the time, of course.
> 
> Flying, I wouldn't much fancy, and sterotypical partying holidays a very bad idea.


Agree. Domestic holiday travel only. ok, we;re going to have to queue for the toilets, ice creams, cafes (should be takeaway only) but that's fine. We should all be used to that by now. Yes there are some who will break the rules, but they are doing that now anyway. If you're high risk then I doubt you'll be wanting to go to the beach anyway. Keeping 2m apart at the beach, or on a coastal path, is something I do anyway becasue I don't like other people. At least then seasonal staff and businesses who rely on british summer time might not lose out so much, and we can all get outside and breathe in that mental health


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## SpokeyDokey (1 Feb 2021)

Idiot skiers from various nations inc' Brits according to the report:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55888856


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## SpokeyDokey (1 Feb 2021)

And a timely holiday update from Boris:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55890224

Despite being, generally glass half full, I'm not sharing his optimism on this one - although, to be fair, he did include some caveats.


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## Archie_tect (1 Feb 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Idiot skiers from various nations inc' Brits according to the report:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55888856


I'd put them all into one large prison cell for 2 weeks, at least.


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## Oldhippy (1 Feb 2021)

I value my life more than a holiday.


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## kingrollo (1 Feb 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> We had an excellent summer holiday in France last year. Travelled by car, socially distanced whilst there to the same extent we were here ie very much.
> 
> I don't see a good reason why the same should not be possible this year, dependent on case rates at the time, of course.
> 
> Flying, I wouldn't much fancy, and sterotypical partying holidays a very bad idea.



Its sort of risk assessment - if the vaccines do their stuff then the risk should be lower - however should people holidaying, on planes, etc - bring home a new vaccine resistant variant - then the doomsday scenario is the new variants thrive, and the vaccines stop working. I know the vaccines can be tweeked, but a what stage do you implement round 2 of a vaccine roll out ? - Ideally with low infection rates (of any variant).


----------



## classic33 (1 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> David - we will be under restrictions for the rest of the year. I don't think government ministers are generally saying that the population won't be under restrictions before the end of the year. Perhaps I have not been listening/looking hard enough.
> Looks like Ireland for your family holiday, then. SWMBO will thoroughly deserve it (and give her something to look forward to).


Stena are restricting travel to commercial travellers and emergency. They also require a negative test result, from you, in the 72 hours before travelling.


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Its sort of risk assessment - if the vaccines do their stuff then the risk should be lower - however should people holidaying, on planes, etc - bring home a new vaccine resistant variant - then the doomsday scenario is the new variants thrive, and the vaccines stop working. I know the vaccines can be tweeked, but a what stage do you implement round 2 of a vaccine roll out ? - Ideally with low infection rates (of any variant).



I agree a lid needs to be kept on case numbers. Deaths across Europe should be very low indeed by summer. The danger is that we open up too much on the basis of deaths and lose control of cases.

Cases were controlled quite successfully across Europe last summer (UK cases were below 1000 from mid June to mid August) and this summer far more people will have some, or even near - complete immunity, from either infection or vaccination.


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## Ajax Bay (1 Feb 2021)

classic33 said:


> Stena are restricting travel


David's SWMBO (and offspring) are too busy to travel at the moment, I warrant.


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Feb 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> I value my life more than a holiday.



Sure, so does everyone.

But as with most such discussions, it's not black and white, it's about risk.

If social distancing is observed to the extent that case numbers are controlled, what's the additional risk of being on holiday vs not being on holiday?

We had a fortnight cycling and walking last summer. I suggest to you that the additional risk from that was negligible, and may even have been negative!


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## SpokeyDokey (1 Feb 2021)

Case numbers dropping markedly:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases


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## Ajax Bay (1 Feb 2021)

Always low on a Monday, isn't it?


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## vickster (1 Feb 2021)

In Sutton...
344 cases per 100,000 people in the latest week 22 Jan-28 Jan. The average area in England had 260*.
709 cases in the latest week 22 Jan-28 Jan
-374 compared with the previous week
14,430 total cases to 1 Feb
Was about 1200/100k a month ago...so definitely dropping here 

My mum has her first jab booked for 10th Feb


----------



## SpokeyDokey (1 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Always low on a Monday, isn't it?



It is.

However, the trends are firmly heading downwards. We are now in the 20 thousands (a little lower yesterday) as opposed to the 40, 50 & 60 thousands (daily cases by dates reported) earlier in January.

***

Also, patients admitted to hospital and patients in hospital are starting to fall.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

***

No time for complacency though - I wonder if this is why that these numbers were not front and centre of today's briefing.


----------



## AuroraSaab (1 Feb 2021)

We go to Italy and Austria mostly for holidays, and Tui are bombarding me with emails atm, offering holidays that are covid insured etc. Yesterday they asked me to do a survey - basically: 'Why aren't you booking a holiday? Is it covid? What covid issues concern you?'. It's obviously a huge issue for them atm.

Unfortunately, questions along the lines of 'What can we do to get you to book?' don't help. The tour operators can take all the safety steps they like but they can't tell Italian shops and bars if they can open, or make the cable cars run up mountains, nor can they tell the UK government what quarantine regs to impose on returning tourists. They can't make the vaccination roll out go faster in the EU either.

If Premier Inn and Travelodge are open over the summer, I'll be happy with that. I wouldn't even consider booking a foreign holiday at the moment.


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## rockyroller (1 Feb 2021)

just spoke to one of our Photogs. she had covid in December. 2 days of a high fever & headache. she made it sound inconsequential


----------



## mjr (1 Feb 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Case numbers dropping markedly:
> 
> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases


Yes, at about 24'000 for the 7-day average, cases are about the peak of the second wave on 13 November.

There is still quite a long way for them to reduce.


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## rockyroller (1 Feb 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> No time for complacency


agreed. 2 days ago 87 ppl dies in Massachusetts from covid. yesterday 46. on my way back from the grocery store for lunch, I was passed by a speeding EMT & after it got in front of me I could see a heavy-set man with a mask on, sitting almost upright in the gurney. a grim reminder, there, but for the grace of God, go I


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## Oldhippy (1 Feb 2021)

Prime example of human stupidity. Matt Hancock says 'Come down hard' on variant. In the same way that they give cancer a personality to somehow make people think it is against us on purpose and we have to fight the good fight! It is a virus! Personalise it all you want it takes people stay in and stay away from each other for Christ sake. What the hell is wrong with people!


----------



## pawl (1 Feb 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Sure, so does everyone.
> 
> But as with most such discussions, it's not black and white, it's about risk.
> 
> ...




part of the enjoyment of our holiday is visiting cafes restaurants local attractions etc.The problem lies with those who do not follow local distancing rules we have to look back at the crowded beaches last year.As far as I’m concerned I will not contemplate golng on holiday until deaths and hospital admissions have significantly reduced. The thought of I may inadvertently carry the virus asymptotically and be the cause of infecting some one close to me and possible killing them


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## roubaixtuesday (1 Feb 2021)

pawl said:


> I will not contemplate golng on holiday until deaths and hospital admissions have significantly reduced



Completely agree with that


----------



## kingrollo (1 Feb 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Prime example of human stupidity. Matt Hancock says 'Come down hard' on variant. In the same way that they give cancer a personality to somehow make people think it is against us on purpose and we have to fight the good fight! It is a virus! Personalise it all you want it takes people stay in and stay away from each other for Christ sake. What the hell is wrong with people!



I know - I felt like putting some hob nail boots on, grabbing a crowbar and walking down the street with a scowl on my face ......


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## MrGrumpy (1 Feb 2021)

Restrictions are here for the rest of this year !! I cannot see at all how they can be lifted entirely !? Holidaying abroad ?? Seriously there is just no way. These variants that are appearing are a worry . Seems one step forward and two back .


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## mjr (1 Feb 2021)

pawl said:


> [...] carry the virus asymptotically [...]


I'm going to keep on pointing out this autocorrect. If you never quite reach it, are you really carrying the virus?


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## Joey Shabadoo (1 Feb 2021)

View: https://twitter.com/JoelBodmer/status/1355950171687936000



Wow!


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## tom73 (1 Feb 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I agree a lid needs to be kept on case numbers. Deaths across Europe should be very low indeed by summer. The danger is that we open up too much on the basis of deaths and lose control of cases.
> 
> Cases were controlled quite successfully across Europe last summer (UK cases were below 1000 from mid June to mid August) and this summer far more people will have some, or even near - complete immunity, from either infection or vaccination.



Not forgetting the other big issue of mixed messages. Just at a time we need to very clear about the risks and dangers. Take today Boris talks of the need to carful but then go on to talk about summer holidays. 
We also had the other classic one wearing a mask then no mask once press ask questions. Yet every one around inc press had one on. I mean he was at vaccination centre for pity’s sake.

As for timing of opening up they a history of getting giddy and today the CBI has started to weigh in. The timing this time is critical even more given the ever changing virus. Questions if T&T can step up to the plate to meet it.Geater number of vaccinated public and the risk they get carried away.


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## tom73 (1 Feb 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/JoelBodmer/status/1355950171687936000
> Wow!




WTF is wrong with people ? utter vile and beyond believe.


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## deptfordmarmoset (1 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Always low on a Monday, isn't it?


Best to wait for Wednesday and knock a bit off for the average.


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## classic33 (1 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> I'm going to keep on pointing out this autocorrect. If you never quite reach it, are you really carrying the virus?


If it were the same person, you might have some argument. But you've used the same term yourself.


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## cookiemonster (2 Feb 2021)

I cannot believe that this question's being asked and that masks are not mandated to be worn at all times outside. No wonder your infection/mortality rates are through the roof. I'm genuinely taken aback by this.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/poll-have...one-wear-face-masks-outside-uk-080322339.html


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## Ajax Bay (2 Feb 2021)

Think it would have a much greater effect on reducing transmission if masks were worn inside all the time.
Is there evidence that the virus is spreading in the open air with people keeping their distance? Most transmission is indoors.
Of course mandatory mask wearing in public outdoors would be much easier to enforce (mainly by public peer pressure, not policing per se) - which is why it's not seen as a stupid question - but along a path in rural Lantau? Mandating indoor mask-wearing would be nugatory - in any country in the world, let alone a liberal democracy. Routine in health care and care settings though, and rightly so, given the threat and the necessary constant mixing of individuals.
How do you think a yahoo poll asking this would go?
"Have your say: Should everyone wear face masks indoors in the UK?"


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## classic33 (2 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Think it would have a much greater effect on reducing transmission if masks were worn inside all the time.
> Is there evidence that the virus is spreading in the open air with people keeping their distance? Most transmission is indoors.
> Of course mandatory mask wearing in public outdoors would be much easier to enforce (mainly by public peer pressure, not policing per se) - which is why it's not seen as a stupid question - but along a path in rural Lantau? Mandating indoor mask-wearing would be nugatory - in any country in the world, let alone a liberal democracy. Routine in health care and care settings though, and rightly so, given the threat and the necessary constant mixing of individuals.
> How do you think a yahoo poll asking this would go?
> "Have your say: Should everyone wear face masks indoors in the UK?"


If you're already exempt, on medical grounds, should you have too?

I'm assuming your question is based on wearing one at home.


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## Joey Shabadoo (2 Feb 2021)

My view is - what harm is done by wearing a mask? I'm sure in some extreme cases it might cause an issue but these are surely just that - extreme cases involving few people.


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## MrGrumpy (2 Feb 2021)

classic33 said:


> If you're already exempt, on medical grounds, should you have too?
> 
> I'm assuming your question is based on wearing one at home.



There seemed to be a quite a few at my work who were exempt ?? !! Never went unnoticed that mask wearing had dropped considerably over later half of 2020 . Funny how when the topic of moving them to safer areas to work in resulted in suddenly a mask reappearing! Too many selfish people about.


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## mjr (2 Feb 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> My view is - what harm is done by wearing a mask? I'm sure in some extreme cases it might cause an issue but these are surely just that - extreme cases involving few people.


Glasses fog if there is any maladjustment, then I can't see where I'm cycling. If made compulsory, then wearing in cars should also be, to avoid further encouragement of motoring contrary to the guidelines.


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## Ajax Bay (2 Feb 2021)

@classic33 I think it's entirely reasonable not to wear a mask, even in places where it's required or prudent, if there is exemption on medical grounds. I think it's sensible, to help others understand, to wear a 'sunflower' lanyard. And this would be for public places, public transport, work settings and anywhere where ventilation is poor. In a liberal society the validity of exemption cannot be policed.
For the avoidance of doubt, I was not suggesting the 'indoors' Q be asked. But if you did ask it: yes, indoors at home. After all, does the evidence not show that that's where most people catch the virus, brought in by another household member? No, I have no link to such evidence. And I'm not suggesting that people be invited to wear masks at home.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-household-transmission-coronavirus
Is most transmission asymptotic




(just testing, i.e. when the infector has no symptoms throughout the course of the disease) or pre-symptomatic (i.e. when the infector develops symptoms after transmitting the virus to another person)? Once the potential infector has symptoms then you'd expect that they and others would take deliberate precautionary measures, certainly in a domestic setting, reducing the risk.
"Major uncertainties remain."


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (2 Feb 2021)

There's a growing list of countries not giving the AZ vaccine to the over-65s because of lack of information. Sweden and Poland have just joined Germany and Austria in advising against its use.


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## Ajax Bay (2 Feb 2021)

Precautionary principle. Entirely reasonable, provided they have (a supply of enough of) another vaccine NOW to give to all the O/65s.
If they haven't, they'll have balanced up the additional lives that'll be lost against the risk of weak evidence from the Phase 3 trial (even moderated by the other evidence).
Sufficient numbers of the UK O/80s will soon have had a first dose of the Oxford-AZ vaccine 'long enough' to allow data to reinforce the other evidence, which was strong enough to persuade the MHRA and STIKO (4 weeks apart).


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## deptfordmarmoset (2 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Precautionary principle. Entirely reasonable, provided they have (a supply of enough of) another vaccine NOW to give to all the O/65s.
> If they haven't, they'll have balanced up the additional lives that'll be lost against the risk of weak evidence from the Phase 3 trial (even moderated by the other evidence).
> Sufficient numbers of the UK O/80s will soon have had a first dose of the Oxford-AZ vaccine 'long enough' to allow data to reinforce the other evidence, which was strong enough to persuade the MHRA and STIKO (4 weeks apart).


I thought it was the absence of 2nd dose vaccination information for the over-65s that is the problem.

Oh, and 100,000 excess deaths have now been registered.


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## mjr (2 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> yes, indoors at home. After all, does the evidence not show that that's where most people catch the virus, brought in by another household member? No, I have no link to such evidence. And I'm not suggesting that people be invited to wear masks at home.


Good because the thing you seem to miss is that masks only reduce the risk and do not eliminate it and I suspect most people are at home long enough that they would still become infected if another member of the household is.

The main time it might help is if the household is split into bubbles and no areas are shared except entry/exit ways, but that will increase feelings of isolation massively and probably lead to a "covid cabin fever" mental health crisis that would dwarf even the awful effects seen so far.


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## RoubaixCube (2 Feb 2021)

Unfortunately I fall within the postcode of this new mutation. 

Im going to be stuck indoors till they are done with the testing.


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## rualexander (2 Feb 2021)

Potential protective effects of using mouthwash against covid 19, by reducing viral load. Also existing gout treatment Colchicine as a therapeutic for covid.

View: https://youtu.be/ldFRt-i3QzY


Also trial underway of Boots Dual Defence nasal spray.
https://www.healtheuropa.eu/clinica...9-protection-for-health-professionals/104294/


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## mjr (3 Feb 2021)

rualexander said:


> Potential protective effects of using mouthwash against covid 19, by reducing viral load.


It's more complicated than that. As well as the Brazilian brand, the linked study cites a study showing no-effect of hydrogen peroxide mouthwash.

But even if it does nothing against covid, it'll probably benefit your oral health.

The Boots Dual Defence trial is interesting. I suspect other similar sprays (Vicks do one) and even old-fashioned menthol-based remedies might help by dislodging some virus from the mouth and nose, too.


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## Wobblers (3 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Working on the assumption that the vaccination programme is effective, in both rate and effectiveness.
> Not a bet any bookie would take. The virus (all viruses) mutate all the time. The issue is whether COVID-19 throws out a variant which the current set of vaccines show low effectiveness against and is at least as transmissible as the original, and even then the world fails to control it.
> And that's a bet which leaders across the world are making: I suggest the odds are good.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55534727



That's a very brave prediction! This virus has shown itself to be more than capable of generating mutations at a surprisingly high rate, given that its reproduction actually has an error correction stage. Two, possibly three, strains have emerged in the past four months that have increased transmittability. We could speculate whether or not this is the result of the pressure of social distancing and lockdown selecting for more transmittable variants.

Worse still, there is evidence that the SA variant is capable of re-infecting individuals who have previously been infected with earlier variants. The current vaccines also seem to be a little less effective against this variant. In short, this is a variant that already shows signs of vaccine escape. I suspect, sadly, that it's only a matter of time before a strain emerges that can evade both natural immunity and vaccine immunity. It's almost certain that we'll be able to change the vaccines to deal with this, but this adds to the logistical challenge. That may well become a major issue particularly in the Third World.


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## tom73 (3 Feb 2021)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-...1a781a424aad02ec84e9dc&pinned_post_type=share

Has anyone shown him a map ? Australia is an island and has been for 1000's of years. Since the pandemic has Australia suddenly become 100% self supporting and has no need of anything from the outside?


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## SpokeyDokey (3 Feb 2021)

Interesting article from the BBC re antibody retention following Covid infection, early days but promising nonetheless:

*"As many as 88% of people still have antibodies in their blood to fight Covid-19 six months after infection, a study of almost 1,700 people suggests."*

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55905158


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## Ajax Bay (3 Feb 2021)

tom73 said:


> Australia is an island


The major influx of infected people into UK to get this pandemic raging in UK was from Italy and then Spain, in particular returners form half-term holidays (not something many Australians go abroad for), re-entering the UK in the cool days of late February and early March.





Estimated histogram of virus importation intensity by day. Colours show the proportion attributable each day to inbound travel from various countries.
Credit: University of Oxford / Edinburgh COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium

By 4 March, the virus was here in strength and controlling its import would have been very difficult, even if the threat had been properly appreciated. But measures taken earlier than they were (in March) would have made a difference, as is common belief, in hind-sight for those without foresight of the economic v public health (im)balance.
A 'major fail' was allowing, encouraging even, widespread recreational international travel into the UK in the summer without rigorous pre-flight testing as a condition of return by air and an effective self-isolation / quarantining mechanism. Holidaying in UK (with precautions) should have been encouraged and barriers placed in the way of foreign air travel to deter the latter.
This would, however, be 'unfair' to those with less means who just want some summer sun in Spain (say), and have got used to foreign holidays and cheap (cost, not CO2) flights.
Given the continent's proximity (that's the European continent, not Australia) the magnitude of the numbers entering UK daily mean that the 'lock-em-up' approach (eg elite/pro tennis players before the Australian Open) would be unworkable, imo (and presumably Shapps's).
With everything locked down (and it's winter) with low travel volumes, the UK can work the new regime/protocols till Palm Sunday / start of the school holidays, at least.


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## tom73 (3 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The major influx of infected people into UK to get this pandemic raging in UK was from Italy and then Spain, in particular returners form half-term holidays (not something many Australians go abroad for), re-entering the UK in the cool days of late February and early March.
> View attachment 571875
> 
> Estimated histogram of virus importation intensity by day. Colours show the proportion attributable each day to inbound travel from various countries.
> ...



You look to be missing the point like Shapp's It's they as like us are not totally cut off. Trade still happens in whatever way you want to do it.
We can't have anything open if we don't get real on enforced quarantine for all no matter what. Our pic N mix approach to the whole pandemic is not working. It never was and won't end this any quicker. If the government put some effect into finding how to make "Jonnie foreigner" approach's shown to be working.Work here Instead of put effect into reenforcing an anti none British way. Which is in the end is what he's doing here. we'd have been in a much better place right now.


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## mjr (3 Feb 2021)

tom73 said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-...1a781a424aad02ec84e9dc&pinned_post_type=share
> 
> Has anyone shown him a map ? Australia is an island and has been for 1000's of years. Since the pandemic has Australia suddenly become 100% self supporting and has no need of anything from the outside?


The page you linked is currently titled "Capt Sir Tom 'inspired the best in us all'" and I don't think the good knight has much to do with Australia or has much use for maps any more.


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## johnblack (3 Feb 2021)

tom73 said:


> You look to be missing the point like Shapp's It's they as like us are not totally cut off. Trade still happens in whatever way you want to do it.
> We can't have anything open if we don't get real on enforced quarantine for all no matter what. Our pic N mix approach to the whole pandemic is not working. It never was and won't end this any quicker. If the government put some effect into finding how to make "Jonnie foreigner" approach's shown to be working.Work here Instead of put effect into reenforcing an anti none British way. Which is in the end is what he's doing here. we'd have been in a much better place right now.


They are one of only a few countries that are "food independent", measured by the UN, so have far less dependence on neighbours and imports which is lucky really as they are so far away from everything else. makes it easier for them to control borders.


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## tom73 (3 Feb 2021)

johnblack said:


> They are one of only a few countries that are "food independent", measured by the UN, so have far less dependence on neighbours and imports which is lucky really as they are so far away from everything else. makes it easier for them to control borders.


No one is talking about stopping good's it about controlling people and risk they bring. Having family in Australia I know which approach they favour. They had a "normal" Christmas and give or take have had a "normal" life for mouths. You can't have your cake and eat it covid won't care if have a cheep winter sun holiday or not. All it care's about infecting as many people as possible.

To put this another way our schools are suit but are borders are open to anyone that's all you need to know.


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## Ajax Bay (3 Feb 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I thought it was the absence of 2nd dose vaccination information for the over-65s that is the problem.


No, the issue is that, by choice, the Oxford-AZ vaccine Phase 3 trial did not include many over 65s. So, in that cohort of participants (actual vaccine and meningitis 'control'), the low numbers meant the results had a very wide 'confidence' range.

So the various European states who have chosen, as is their national prerogative within the EMA authorisation, not to use the Oxford-AZ vaccine for their O/65s are perfectly reasonably doing that on the basis that the trial didn't give evidence the vaccine 'works' for oldies.
No evidence that it wasn't efficacious: but rather weak evidence that it was. This is why, ill-advisedly (given national French vaccine hesitancy), Macron said that this vaccine was "quasi-ineffective" (as reported, I have tried to find what he actually said en francais). Additional lab-based study work offered evidence was shared with (eg) the UK JCVI and the EMA which gave them confidence to authorise the vaccine's use for over 65s.

Hopefully EU states can use their Pfizer supplies to jab the older, vulnerable element of their communities and use what supply of the Oxford-AZ vaccine they receive this month to vaccinate their health care workers. The extreme cold storage logistics of the Pfizer will make this a more complicated approach than if they could use the fridge stored vaccine for all their care homes and less mobile seniors in rural areas of the continent. This will make increasing the vaccination rate a little more difficult.

By March, there will be enough (expected to be persuasive) data from the millions of Oxford-AZ vaccinated UK 80+ (single dose) to allow those 'show-me-trial-evidence' states named to see real effectiveness evidence. On its current programme/progress the UK should have vaccinated all those eligible for a 'Senior Citizen' state pension by 25 Feb.

In the EU this will take at least a month longer, with the tragic result that many more of the European old and vulnerable will die (and that the case rates will stay higher for longer). But the EU has deliberately adopted a lower risk threshold approach to authorisation, just compounding the supply delays resulting from hesitant and risk-averse procurement (tardy contract signing).


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## classic33 (3 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> The page you linked is currently titled "Capt Sir Tom 'inspired the best in us all'" and I don't think the good knight has much to do with Australia or has much use for maps any more.


The clue is in the word "live".


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## mjr (3 Feb 2021)

tom73 said:


> You can't have your cake and eat it covid won't care if have a cheep winter sun holiday or not. All it care's about infecting as many people as possible.


It doesn't care about that either, really. It's a virus. It just viruses.

Don't anthropomorphise covid. It hates that.


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## Oldhippy (3 Feb 2021)

That is a big problem with a number of diseases now they are given a personality that we have to go to war with it.


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## mjr (3 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> In the EU this will take at least a month longer, with the tragic result that many more of the European old and vulnerable will die (and that the case rates will stay higher for longer).


More than what? Higher than what? Because it probably ain't gonna be more than the UK (rate-wise) for deaths for many because most EU states got their case rates down lower sooner and didn't have governments permit a Christmas bender. Some health officials are already cautiously opining that they think their areas may have avoided the "third wave", the wave currently ebbing away from the UK, whereas the UK seems yet to see a wave it doesn't crash into feet-first.



> But the EU has deliberately adopted a lower risk threshold approach to authorisation, just compounding the supply delays resulting from hesitant and risk-averse procurement (tardy contract signing).


The EU's population is the EU's population and others have noted above that at least two large countries seem to be more vaccine-hesistant than the UK's, so being seen to do that more detailed checking is vital to getting a high-enough vaccination rate in the long run. There's no point setting off at a sprint if it means they'd fail to cross the finish line. If the UK had German levels of hesitancy, several of Boris's vaccine gambles almost certainly wouldn't work.


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## mjr (3 Feb 2021)

More on mask use. I understand Bavaria and maybe other German states are moving to requiring FFP2 (Face Filtering Piece level 2) use more and more, including transport and shops. Can our German correspondents tell us if they can get reusable ones there and are they cheaper than the €11 they're selling for in Boots's in the UK?

France's Public Health Council is now recommending masks that meet standards (including cloth ones that meet standards) rather than general cloth ones. The National Academy of Medicine disagreed by pointing out "The effectiveness of 'general public' masks has never been faulted when they are correctly worn."

Some Belgian hospitals have banned cloth masks, apparently arguing that cloth masks are "worn badly" without apparently realising that people who wear them badly will bodge the medical masks too. 

No sign of tightening from the Netherlands, but they were slow to require masks at all.

Do any tighter mask rules show much benefit yet?


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## Ajax Bay (3 Feb 2021)

"the tragic result that many more of the European old and vulnerable will die (and that the case rates will stay higher for longer)."


mjr said:


> More than what? Higher than what?


Sorry if that was difficult to understand.
More than if the states of Europe had vaccinated earlier and at a similar rate to, say the UK (or even at half the rate of the UK).
Higher than if (as above . . . ) with a third of the population vaccinated and the beneficial impact on cases.


mjr said:


> The EU's population is the EU's population and others have noted above that at least two large countries seem to be more vaccine-hesistant than the UK's, so being seen to do that more detailed checking is vital to getting a high-enough vaccination rate in the long run. There's no point setting off at a sprint if it means they'd fail to cross the finish line. If the UK had German levels of hesitancy, several of Boris's vaccine gambles almost certainly wouldn't work.


You make a good point about hesitancy. This article offers an overview with historical perspective (Germany):
https://www.dw.com/en/in-germany-vaccinations-have-always-been-political/a-56221965
I guess we don't properly appreciate that this vaccine hesitancy may have been why the EU Commission was so keen to:
1) press the companies discovering, trialling and manufacturing the vaccines:to accept most of the risk if something went wrong;
2) to delay signing for 3 months (is this the opposite of (as you put it) the UK's gambles on agreeing early to purchase a variety of vaccines, btw?);
3) to spend weeks (longer than UK et al) deciding whether to license the various vaccines after the results of the Phase 3 trials were available;
4) delay the start of the vaccination programmes in the states of the EU so they would get going start after the guinea pigs of Israel, USA and the UK and their success would help persuade their various sceptical populations.


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## Unkraut (3 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> More on mask use. I understand Bavaria and maybe other German states are moving to requiring FFP2 (Face Filtering Piece level 2) use more and more, including transport and shops. Can our German correspondents tell us if they can get reusable ones there and are they cheaper than the €11 they're selling for in Boots's in the UK?


FFP2 or the blue clinical masks have been a requirement for the last 10 days or so - shops, public transport and in some places in high streets. Bavaria, with a nasty infection rate, has been tougher on this and introduced them earlier. Marcus Söder, their minister-president has actually achieved some popularity for this robust approach, but then Austria and Italy are not far away.

I got a free handout of FFP2 (due to age!!) which are not reusable, although you can stretch their use a bit. I bought some clinical masks in Aldi pretty cheap, and will soon have to get some more FFP2. No idea how much they will cost. Might be in a position to let you know tomorrow!


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## PK99 (3 Feb 2021)

tom73 said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55916020?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=601a781a424aad02ec84e9dc&UK could not close borders like Australia - transport secretary&2021-02-03T10:20:55.427Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:f2d5bfee-4fb5-4948-aa33-8f6698355674&pinned_post_asset_id=601a781a424aad02ec84e9dc&pinned_post_type=share
> 
> Has anyone shown him a map ? Australia is an island and has been for 1000's of years. *Since the pandemic has Australia suddenly become 100% self supporting and has no need of anything from the outside?*



Australia is 207% food self-sufficient 
NZ is 185%

They can close their borders and still eat.

we are 64%

We close our borders we go hungry

Eg eggs, we are 84% self-sufficient, the rest are imported

Did you know that the UK is:

18% self-sufficient in fruit
55% self-sufficient in fresh vegetables
71% self-sufficient in potatoes


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## deptfordmarmoset (3 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> "the tragic result that many more of the European old and vulnerable will die (and that the case rates will stay higher for longer)."
> 
> Sorry if that was difficult to understand.
> More than if the states of Europe had vaccinated earlier and at a similar rate to, say the UK (or even at half the rate of the UK).
> ...


I think the decision to use the vaccine off licence (by delaying the 2nd dose beyond the initial approval) will also counts as a UK gamble, though I don't know whether @mjr would include that.

On vaccine hesitancy: Though the UK rate of hesitancy is fairly low, the BAME part of the population is very hesitant and they're the ones who are already being hit the most.


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## PK99 (3 Feb 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I think the decision to use the vaccine off licence (by delaying the 2nd dose beyond the initial approval) will also counts as a UK* gamble*, though I don't know whether @mjr would include that.
> 
> On vaccine hesitancy: Though the UK rate of hesitancy is fairly low, the BAME part of the population is very hesitant and they're the ones who are already being hit the most.



I really do bridle at the use of the term "gamble" here and in similar Covid contexts

These are decisions based on extensive scientific advice, not "taking a punt"


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## mjr (3 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> I really do bridle at the use of the term "gamble" here and in similar Covid contexts
> 
> These are decisions based on extensive scientific advice, not "taking a punt"


Don't know who you're quoting there with "taking a punt".

The scientific advice is just advice and the decision-makers have shown themselves more than willing to do something different; plus the scientific advice is not certainty. This shoot is probabilistic, daffodils!


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## deptfordmarmoset (3 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> I really do bridle at the use of the term "gamble" here and in similar Covid contexts
> 
> These are decisions based on extensive scientific advice, not "taking a punt"


In the case of the AZ vaccine approval, the extensive scientific advice was that which led to its approval. Use beyond that approval is why there's a divergence between European countries and the UK's approach. Call it a calculated risk, if you like, but it's still a gamble.


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## mjr (3 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> "the tragic result that many more of the European old and vulnerable will die (and that the case rates will stay higher for longer)."
> 
> Sorry if that was difficult to understand.


Well, of course it was because it uses a comparative with no indication what it is comparing to.



> More than if the states of Europe had vaccinated earlier and at a similar rate to, say the UK (or even at half the rate of the UK).
> Higher than if (as above . . . ) with a third of the population vaccinated and the beneficial impact on cases.


More than a theoretical idealised imaginary Europe which doesn't exist, in effect. If they had vaccinated earlier, they may well get nowhere near the vaccination rate or coverage of the UK, because their populations would react differently. Then not only would they be in the shoot but they might drag us back in with them with new variants arising, and we don't want that, do we?

If any states felt they could go faster, the methods the UK used (which still acting as if an EU member state) and Hungary has now used were (and are) available to them.


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## deptfordmarmoset (3 Feb 2021)

@Ajax Bay - my post with the original version of Macron's critique of the AZ vaccine has been deleted because it's not in English. Der....


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## Rocky (3 Feb 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> @Ajax Bay - my post with the original version of Macron's critique of the AZ vaccine has been deleted because it's not in English. Der....


Isn't Der German?........you don't even know when you are doing it DM!!


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## deptfordmarmoset (3 Feb 2021)

Rocky said:


> Isn't Der German?........you don't even know when you are doing it DM!!


To derrrr is human.


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## Ajax Bay (3 Feb 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> my post with the original [en francais] version of Macron's critique of the AZ vaccine has been deleted because it's not in English.


I read it long ago: thank you for posting. Try posting again with an explanation of why you've done so. I was concerned that the media had unfairly traduced his language (they hadn't!).
It will slightly interesting to know why the mods didn't ask you, first, but hey ho!


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## mjr (3 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I read it long ago: thank you for posting. Try posting again with an explanation of why you've done so. I was concerned that the media had unfairly traduced his language (they hadn't!).


I expect it's more likely to remain if someone just puts the link, unless they've time to write a full translation.


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## deptfordmarmoset (3 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I read it long ago: thank you for posting. Try posting again with an explanation of why you've done so. I was concerned that the media had unfairly traduced his language (they hadn't!).


I think it was clear from the quoted section of your post what the context was. It's perfectly obvious that I can't give an original quote in English if it was in French.


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## Ajax Bay (3 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> I really do bridle at the use of the term "gamble" here and in similar Covid contexts


I empathise. And I know you know that I was using the term to flush out exactly the point you made .
In May a nation or union of states can have an insight but no assurance that any particular vaccine would be efficaceous at the end of Phase 3 trials. What to do? Will the horse get even to the start in the Gold Cup?
UK VTC (semi-political) choice (mission "Save lives") was to sign advance purchase agreements for 6 different vaccines. Was this a 'gamble'!!!
UK VTC also accepted a higher level of risk (for UK plc) in the terms of these contracts. Was this a 'gamble'!!!
First Pfizer, then Oxford-AZ and Moderna all produced successful results from Ph3 trials and applied for emergency authorisation. After careful consideration of the data (both during and after the trials and data submission) UK's MHRA authorised such emergency use. Was this a 'gamble'!!!
The JCVI established a strategy and priority order of vaccinating the most vulnerable first, to save lives. Was this a 'gamble'!!!
The JCVI modified their advice (on 30 Dec) to increase the gap between first and second doses to 12 weeks (from 3). Was this a 'gamble'!!!
Yes: and one where the payout was certainly hundreds of lives saved (I haven't done the maths on that, yet) against the risk that effectiveness would be only at 89% (confidence level not sure) instead of 95% (Pfizer) for the extra 9 weeks).
I'm amazed that other nations are not doubling the numbers vaccinated in the first 11 weeks by going for the extended gap, given the paucity of supply.


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## Unkraut (4 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> More than a theoretical idealised imaginary Europe which doesn't exist, in effect. *If they had vaccinated earlier*, ...


I have just listened to the leader of the Conservative group in the EU Parliament on the subject of vaccines. He defended the approach taken.

If the EU had not decided to negotiate as the EU but as individual states, you would have had the potential for 27 sets of disputes as has arisen over AZ and the UK. Endless arguments over who gets what and when.

Going for complete approval through the EMA was in light of the then known reluctance of the population to accept the vaccine. This has dramatically changed in the meantime.

Regarding AZ, the EU put up a lot of money up front in return for promised supplies, and these have not been forthcoming. Part of this is due to production problems. The fear exists (he maintained) that production that should have been allocated to the EU has found its way to other countries who could have paid more. (Hence the export stop.) Also it is unacceptable that when the massive reduction in supply was announced, deliveries to the EU were curtailed but supplies to the UK were fully maintained.

I don't think AZ should have been surprised to have such a strong reaction to the EU considering the amount of the reduction and the short notice they gave, and that this was on top of Pfizer doing something similar.

I still wonder if the supply problems would be so acute if the EU had ordered earlier, but the situation appears to be more complicated than just that.


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## Ajax Bay (4 Feb 2021)

Unkraut said:


> Going for complete approval through the EMA was in light of the then known reluctance of the population to accept the vaccine. This has dramatically changed in the meantime.
> Regarding AZ, the EU put up a lot of money up front in return for promised supplies, and these have not been forthcoming. Part of this is due to production problems.


Thank you for sharing that. A question and a couple of observations.
Are there data on the latest hesitancy rates in the states within the EU anywhere? You suggest there have been 'dramatic' changes.
When an entity signs an advance purchase agreement (APA) part of the deal is to pay (aka "put a lot of") money "up front. The EU contract with AZ did not, aiui - have read it, "promise" or specify a time profile of supply. The contract did require AZ to tell the customer (the EU) as soon as possible if there was going to be a supply issue. They did, inevitably at "short notice" I guess, once the production issues surfaced in its/partners' continental factories , whence the supply was to come.
I can entirely see why it seems unfair that, with a production shortfall, AZ don't reduce (/reprofile the) supply to each of its main customers similarly. I speculate whether codicils added to the APA signed in May with UK's VTC specify supply profiles (maybe agreed after the Phase 3 trials were close to successful completion) and also specify primacy of supply from AZ's UK-based factories. But we don't know.


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## Unkraut (4 Feb 2021)

5


Ajax Bay said:


> Are there data on the latest hesitancy rates in the states within the EU anywhere? You suggest there have been 'dramatic' changes.


The rates for Germany used to be about a 50% acceptance rate. A poll not long ago showed this had gone up to 67% acceptance, with up to 90% being willing although having some misgivings. Absolute refusers had gone down from about 20% to 10%. This was on the telly and I'm going by memory, but the vast majority of the population will accept the vaccine. I think there has been a similar development in Italy. I could well imagine the development is similar elsewhere.

Some of this might be due to greater realisation of the danger of the virus, coupled with vaccines being the only relatively quick way out of economic lockdowns.

As for AZ, we may never know exactly what was agreed. Personally, I don't begrudge Britain the supplies because of the infection rates there, but in return find the invidious comparisons with the EU rate of vaccination as being solely due to mismanagement uncalled for, although I still feel this might have played a part. A higher rate of vaccination in the EU would come at the cost of a lower rate in the UK.


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## Wobblers (4 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> I really do bridle at the use of the term "gamble" here and in similar Covid contexts
> 
> These are decisions based on extensive scientific advice, not "taking a punt"



The evidence over extending the time between doses for the Pfizer vaccine is at best weak. The decision was based on the observation of low infection rates between weeks two and three after the first dose. But that short time frame means few data and hence high standard deviation. It is not possible to have a high confidence in that result, statistically speaking. Moreover, this cannot be extrapolated over the remaining nine weeks as we have no data there at all. There was no data to support the idea that the vaccine would remain effective over this period, though it's fair to say that there are good immunological reasons for believing so. Thus, from a scientific viewpoint, the decision to extend the time between doses fourfold was exactly that: a gamble. No data means no evidence! I would not ever contemplate making such an unsupported extrapolation in any paper or report I write - and nor would any professional scientist that I know. I would expect any paper submitted for peer review to be rejected if it did - as would I were I one of the reviewers.


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## Ajax Bay (4 Feb 2021)

McWobble said:


> Thus, from a scientific viewpoint, the decision to extend the time between doses fourfold was exactly that: a gamble. No data means no evidence!


We agree, I think. I said "to increase the gap between first and second doses to 12 weeks (from 3)" was "a 'gamble'!" (Description of risk/gain odds ^^^) Much to gain and the betting slip was cheap: a 'slam dunk' win - hundreds of lives saved; even if effectiveness (against immunological theory/experience) dropped after 3 weeks. Chris Whitty (CMO) said that delaying the second dose was a “public health decision” based on the best advice and balance of risks.
Edit: Just in: https://www.ndmrb.ox.ac.uk/about/ne...ng-the-3-month-interval-until-the-second-dose
An attraction of the extension to 12 weeks gap 'gamble' is that the JCVI could withdraw that bet quickly and without much vaccination programme friction if evidence emerged of a significant drop-off in effectiveness after 3 (or more) week gap. But from a pure scientific viewpoint, you're dead right: no evidence (narrowness of Pfizer trial design?).
However typifying some of the other examples I gave above (eg procurement haste, acceptance of unknown risk, licensing) as "gambles" or even "Boris's gambles" (presumably with intent to invite pejorative inference as opposed to (PM, government, MHRA or JCVI) reasonable judgement calls) lacks utility. If one wants to cast the 'gamble' net that wide, every decision with uncertain result made by every government, indeed every individual, could be described as a gamble.
I don't discount that the 'gamble' will be extended (ie to more than 12 weeks) as evidence is gathered of immunological levels enduring. However the potential gain is probably not worth the various types of cost. By the time the first of the 12 week gap second doses are due (about 14 Mar) JCVI Groups 1-7 (ie all over 60 and CEV) will have had a first jab.


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## Unkraut (4 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Can our German correspondents tell us if they can get reusable ones there and are they cheaper than the €11 they're selling for in Boots's in the UK?


5 non-reusable for €14:75. I didn't think to ask about reusable. You can get 8 hours per mask not necessarily on the same day, and at the price doesn't seem worth getting reusable. If I needed to go anywhere on public transport regularly I'd think about reusable though.


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## Unkraut (4 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> I really do bridle at the use of the term "gamble" here and in similar Covid contexts


It does sound as though the government is 'gambling' with people's lives. As others have said, calculated risk is better.

Needless to say Johnson is not particularly popular on the continent, but I have seen no criticism here of the emergency authorisation of the vaccine nor risking only giving the first shot and prolonging the time until the second. The infection rates necessitate this, and there has been some admiration for the British getting on with it.

It might be Portugal will have to take a similar approach if the out of control infection rate cannot be brought under control again.


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## mjr (4 Feb 2021)

Unkraut said:


> 5 non-reusable for €14:75. I didn't think to ask about reusable. You can get 8 hours per mask not necessarily on the same day, and at the price doesn't seem worth getting reusable. If I needed to go anywhere on public transport regularly I'd think about reusable though.


Apparently the Boots €11 box contains 5 but I guess there is more demand where you are. I've also been told B+M Stores are selling them at about €0.55 each but I hate finding stuff in there! All FFP2NR so non reusable.


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## PK99 (4 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> We agree, I think. I said "to increase the gap between first and second doses to 12 weeks (from 3)" was "a 'gamble'!" (Description of risk/gain odds ^^^) Much to gain and the betting slip was cheap: a 'slam dunk' win - hundreds of lives saved; even if effectiveness (against immunological theory/experience) dropped after 3 weeks. Chris Whitty (CMO) said that delaying the second dose was a “public health decision” based on the best advice and balance of risks.
> An attraction of the extension to 12 weeks gap 'gamble' is that the JCVI could withdraw that bet quickly and without much vaccination programme friction if evidence emerged of a significant drop-off in effectiveness after 3 (or more) week gap. But from a pure scientific viewpoint, you're dead right: no evidence (narrowness of Pfizer trial design?).
> However typifying some of the other examples I gave above (eg procurement haste, acceptance of unknown risk, licensing) as "gambles" or even "Boris's gambles" (presumably with intent to invite pejorative inference as opposed to (PM, government, MHRA or JCVI) reasonable judgement calls) lacks utility. If one wants to cast the 'gamble' net that wide, every decision with uncertain result made by every government, indeed every individual, could be described as a gamble.
> I don't discount that the 'gamble' will be extended (ie to more than 12 weeks) as evidence is gathered of immunological levels enduring. However the potential gain is probably not worth the various types of cost. By the time the first of the 12 week gap second doses are due (about 14 Mar) JCVI Groups 1-7 (ie all over 60 and CEV) will have had a first jab.



Every medication I take (currently 7 and about to start a new aggressive med for a new condition) is in those terms a "gamble" - just check out the info sheet in any box of pills for the probabilities of side effects.

I've had 2 instances of bad side effects: A drug induced Lupus like rash/syndrome from Statins and a potentially life threatening reaction (major skin rash over whole of back, legs and arms) to Omeprazole - I have been told NEVER to take it again as any future reaction would likely be far more serious. My Consultants were not "gambling" they were making sound clinical judgments based on balance of risk.

Gamble is the wrong word in the vaccine context and is being used in a deliberately pejorative sense.


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## mjr (4 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> Gamble is the wrong word in the vaccine context and is being used in a deliberately pejorative sense.


It's really not, in either way. I feel strongly that we need to make people realise there are few certainties in this field. Some bets will be sound. Others are good bets but we still lose some. One thing we really really need is idiot journalists to stop demanding certainty on dates and shoot and some idiot politicians to stop giving them false certainty on some topics.

And yes, meds are gambles. I've been through worse station hell and even worse on another. Three others I tolerate find. I'll probably still try at least two more emerging treatments. Whether I do or not, it's still a gamble. The main choice is which bets to stake my life on. Covid is similar, with many more lives. There is no way not to bet now.


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## Ajax Bay (4 Feb 2021)

I think this widening of the definition of 'gamble' lacks utility. You are using it in @PK99 's phrase: "in a deliberately pejorative sense."
Is it a 'gamble' to ride on the road when there's a perfectly good cycle track (or shared pavement) running alongside? (My answer is 'no' btw.)


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## classic33 (4 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Apparently the Boots €11 box contains 5 but I guess there is more demand where you are. I've also been told B+M Stores are selling them at about €0.55 each but I hate finding stuff in there! All FFP2NR so non reusable.


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## classic33 (4 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> It's really not, in either way. I feel strongly that we need to make people realise there are few certainties in this field. Some bets will be sound. Others are good bets but we still lose some. One thing we really really need is idiot journalists to stop demanding certainty on dates and shoot and some idiot politicians to stop giving them false certainty on some topics.
> 
> And yes, meds are gambles. I've been through worse station hell and even worse on another. Three others I tolerate find. I'll probably still try at least two more emerging treatments. Whether I do or not, it's still a gamble. The main choice is which bets to stake my life on. Covid is similar, with many more lives. There is no way not to bet now.


Two things,
There's very little that's certain in life. Health even less so.

As for "bets" on medications, you make the best call you can on what will cause
you the fewer and less damaging side effects. They are not gambles.


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## mjr (4 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I think this widening of the definition of 'gamble' lacks utility.


That comment lacks utility because it is not a widening. Example https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/gamble



> You are using it in @PK99 's phrase: "in a deliberately pejorative sense."


Cute! A literal tag team!



> Is it a 'gamble' to ride on the road when there's a perfectly good cycle track (or shared pavement) running alongside? (My answer is 'no' btw.)


Then your answer is wrong. Riding on either is a gamble. As is not riding.


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## Rusty Nails (4 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Then your answer is wrong. Riding on either is a gamble. As is not riding.



Indeed. Everyday life is one big gamble.


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## PK99 (4 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> That comment lacks utility because it is not a widening. Example https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/gamble
> 
> 
> Cute! A literal tag team!
> ...



By your logic life is a gamble with a 100% certainty of losing.


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## Joey Shabadoo (4 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> By your logic life is a gamble with a 100% certainty of losing.


Life is a rollercoaster, just gotta ride it.


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## Rusty Nails (4 Feb 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Life is a rollercoaster, just gotta ride it.



Life is a minestrone.


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## mjr (4 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> By your logic life is a gamble with a 100% certainty of losing.


Yep. It's just a question of when. Another poster elsewhere in my old uni department said "is life a terminal illness with 100% mortality?" Awfully pragmatic outlook, mathematicians. The stuff we/they work with/on is about as permanent as anything known, which gives you a frightening sense of perspective on your lifespan pretty early on, but most come out of it better than Douglas Adams seemed to suggest.


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## matticus (4 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> I feel strongly that we need to make people realise there are few certainties in this field. Some bets will be sound. Others are good bets but we still lose some. One thing* we really really need is idiot journalists to stop demanding certainty on dates *and shoot and some idiot politicians to stop giving them false certainty on some topics.


and yet you make a massive deal about Gov possibly missing targets on vaccine delivery. They have a plan - no outcome is ever certain, but better to work with a plan (even if it's badly thought-through) than with no fecking clue. And it would be very bizarre to keep the plan totally secret!


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## mjr (4 Feb 2021)

matticus said:


> and yet you make a massive deal about Gov possibly missing targets on vaccine delivery.


A target which was announced in a speech, not under pressure from journalists, but once they have said they will do something, it's fair to see if they are actually doing it, especially if they say they still are, and to call out when they try to retcon the target into something easier.



> They have a plan - no outcome is ever certain, but better to work with a plan (even if it's badly thought-through) than with no fecking clue. And it would be very bizarre to keep the plan totally secret!


That's a false dilemma: the two choices are not "promise a plan" and "no fecking clue". It would be possible to have a plan and even disclose the plan without portraying it as a certainty, but that's too subtle for this bunch.


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## Ajax Bay (4 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> From your link, the PM said "By the middle of February, if things go well and with a fair wind in our sails, we expect to have *offered* the first vaccine dose to everyone in the four top priority groups identified by the JCVI. That means vaccinating all residents in a care home for older adults and their carers, everyone over the age of 70, all frontline health and social care workers, and everyone who is clinically extremely vulnerable."





mjr said:


> A target which was announced in a speech, not under pressure from journalists, but once they have said they will do something, it's fair to see if they are actually doing it, especially if they say they still are, and to call out when they try to retcon the target into something easier.


Target announced in a speech by the UK's Prime Minister - tick (see link and text above - warning: stuck needle alert)
Fair to see if they're "doing it"? Leaving aside your terminology, I've sought to estimate whether the target will be met and share my maths with all.
IF they say they still are - tick (and on current progress "they are"). As at 3 Feb: 10.5M first doses give; Rate per day = 430kpd; days to do 10.
Excellent if aberrational use of 'retcon' btw. Exposed a welcome lacuna in my vocabulary.


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## Ajax Bay (5 Feb 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Also, preliminary results from a vitamin supplement questionnaire, indicate that garlic has no benefit whatsoever, but multivitamins and vitamin D did show some slightly increased resistance to CV-19 in women. No benefit for men.





marinyork said:


> Vitamin D is something the BMA has recommended all adults take October -March in the UK for quite a while now.


I hope everyone is taking their Vitamin D - I've been using these 4000IU (180): D3&K2.
5 Oct 20 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr
*Vitamin D and covid-19: enough evidence to recommend supplements*
Dear Editor,
There are now close to 30 or so studies demonstrating that having optimal blood levels of 25(OH)-vitamin D (75-150 nmol/L) reduces covid-19 risks: reduced risk of infection; reduced risk of severe disease; reduced risk of dying. Many researchers now regard the evidence as ‘overwhelming’. Despite this, there still will be those who say that we need ‘more research’, but in the meantime, there is little to be lost (vitamin D supplements are inexpensive and have low risk of toxicity) and a huge amount to gain by recommending a decent daily dose of vitamin D3 (say 1-2,000 IU for children and 4-5,000 IU for adults).
and two more persuasive studies showing very good correlation.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au6FKi8aAsA

https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk
Habitual use of vitamin D supplements and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection: a prospective study in UK Biobank (29th January, 2021.
https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/advance... The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition


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## Julia9054 (5 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I hope everyone is taking their Vitamin D - I've been using these 4000IU (180): D3&K2.
> 5 Oct 20 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr
> *Vitamin D and covid-19: enough evidence to recommend supplements*
> Dear Editor,
> ...



Most northern hemisphere indoor worker drones are vitamin D deficient in winter as a matter of course.


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## Ajax Bay (5 Feb 2021)

Low median levels of Vitamin D in some BAME communities has been suggested as inversely correlated with levels of serious illness from C19 in members of those communities.
At 7p a pop (or half if you drop to every 2 days) I reckon that's a win/no lose 'gamble' worth taking (and for @Julia9054 's "northern hemisphere indoor worker drones".


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## deptfordmarmoset (5 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Low median levels of Vitamin D in some BAME communities has been suggested as inversely correlated with levels of serious illness from C19 in members of those communities.
> At 7p a pop (or half if you drop to every 2 days) I reckon that's a win/no lose 'gamble' worth taking (and for @Julia9054 's "northern hemisphere indoor worker drones".


Though the Zoe study said that there was no apparent added protection for men, I still decided to start taking them. There simply was nothing to lose. I'm going to have to up my dosage though - mine are only 3000IU.


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## PK99 (5 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I hope everyone is taking their Vitamin D - I've been using these 4000IU (180): D3&K2.
> 5 Oct 20 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr
> *Vitamin D and covid-19: enough evidence to recommend supplements*
> Dear Editor,
> ...




Shielding folks get free supplies of Vitamin D


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## Ajax Bay (5 Feb 2021)

Yes, but aiui they're only getting 400IU pills (cf the 4000IU which will make a difference). My son was taking those! I've supplied him (and his siblings) with a bottle of 2000IU ones.


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## slowmotion (5 Feb 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Though the Zoe study said that there was no apparent added protection for men, I still decided to start taking them. There simply was nothing to lose. I'm going to have to up my dosage though - mine are only 3000IU.


I've read that a 4000IU daily dose shouldn't be exceeded. If you consistently take high levels of D3 you run the risk of getting brittle bones.


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## PK99 (5 Feb 2021)

slowmotion said:


> I've read that a 4000IU daily dose shouldn't be exceeded. If you consistently take high levels of D3 you run the risk of getting brittle bones.



From the guidance to shielding folks: (my bold, a[art from heading)
*Taking vitamin D safely*
Please make sure you read and comply with the instructions set out on the product label.

Each ‘1-A-Day’ vitamin D supplement contains 10 micrograms (µg) of vitamin D. This is equivalent to 400 international units (IU) of vitamin D. This is the daily amount recommended for the general population by government for general health and in particular to protect bone and muscle health.

If your GP has recommended that you take a different amount of vitamin D, you should follow your GP’s advice.

Do not exceed the recommended dose (1 supplement per day containing 1*0 micrograms (µg) equivalent to 400 international units). This is a safe level of intake, designed to meet your nutritional needs. Taking more is not currently recommended.*

For most people taking up to 100 micrograms (µg) equivalent to 4,000 international units) per day is considered safe. *In a few people, taking too many vitamin D supplements over a long period of time can cause too much calcium to build up in the body (hypercalcaemia)*. *This can weaken the bones and damage the kidneys and the heart*. NHS.UK has more information about vitamin D, including advice on intakes.

While some medications may interact with high doses of vitamin D, there are no issues associated with the 10 microgram vitamin D supplement. They are intended to supplement the diet and should not be substituted for a varied diet.


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## Ajax Bay (5 Feb 2021)

Verging off topic
The UK 400IU a day recommendation is half of other nations' recommended amounts.
Like the non-availability of clinical trial evidence that the Oxford-AZ vaccine is efficacious for over -65s, there is no evidence that large amounts of vitamin D at the sort of level mentioned is likely to be harmful. Implicitly the NHS say this (from the NHS link you shared): "Do not take more than 100 micrograms (4,000 IU) of vitamin D a day as it could be harmful."
The ones I take have some K2 in there to moderate the calcification effect which has been shown in rats who can be poisoned with D3 (stratospheric concentrations) aiui.
A varied diet and no sunshine will result in low vitamin D levels There are genetic factors in play too.
Supplementation at a good level is a sensible, cheap option, particularly during the winter months - till Easter in the northern hemisphere. After that, get out on your bike or otherwise outdoors in shorts.
Correlation/causation Bradford_Hill_criteria
@slowmotion
https://www.easy-immune-health.com/vit-d-and-calcification-of-the-arteries-heart-disease.html
I thought this video was crammed full of decent 'stuff' persuasively concluding that robust (4000IU daily) supplementation is beneficial.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha2mLz-Xdpg

https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583
Optimisation of Vitamin D Status for EnhancedImmuno-protection Against Covid-19 (2020 Irish Medical Journal)
https://www.researchgate.net/public...r_Enhanced_Immuno-protection_Against_Covid-19


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## vickster (5 Feb 2021)

Year round, I take around 1300IU a day as supplementation (1000 in a 25ug Vit D tab as instructed by rheumatologist, 200 in a high dose omega 3 and 100 in a multivit) and my recent Vit D blood test was still borderline low. I’ll discuss next time I see the specialist, orthopod who ordered the blood test wasn’t concerned.
clearly I’ve seen no sunshine since autumn (normally I would have a sunshine holiday sometime between Nov - Feb)


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## mjr (9 Feb 2021)

More or Less: Behind the Stats: Teachers, Test & Trace and Butterflies http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0962k5t contains info on Dido T&T taking credit for tracing contacts they never contact. Utter daffodils.


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## Unkraut (9 Feb 2021)

Rusty Nails said:


> There is no guilt, as a non EU member, to be felt from our approach to vaccination, compared to the leaden, confused approach of the EU.


Replying here as the other thread is locked and this is off topic there anyway.

I wasn't implying any need to feel guilty at the British approach. I think it was Gove who rightly said (!) there should be no vaccine nationalism, and the point of the EU doing the procuring was to avoid precisely this. Given the initial limited supply of vaccine, Britain would have received less under the EU procedure. The real losers though would have been the poorer countries of eastern Europe who don't have the purchasing power.

The problem with the EU is how it negotiated. Completed negotiations with Moderna, for example, at the end of August but didn't actually sign a contract until the beginning of December! What I still don't know is how much these delays resulted in slowing down the actual production of vaccine. It may not have been quite as bad as I first thought.

Vaccination is proceeding across Europe, but a more robust approach might have meant at a level achieved by the States, if comparisons have to be made.

It is highly ironic, and not well received amongst the population that the mRNA vaccine was discovered in Germany in Tübingen, developed by BioNTech in Mainz, and was the first to be licenced, yet in Mainz there is not enough vaccine.



AuroraSaab said:


> If the EU had put as much money into researching a vaccine as the UK did, do you think it would have been developed sooner and by this stage most of Europe would have had the jab?


The founder of BioNTech was interviewed here over the weekend and stated that lack of money was not responsible for impeding development of the vaccines. Bringing about mass production very swiftly simply isn't possible due the complexity and need for rare expertise, and that is what I fear may have been made worse by the EU's strategy. 

The situation of vaccinating at full capacity will, I hope, be achieved by the end of March, but the fact it will have taken a whole quarter to get there still makes me think some resignations are in order! After that the situation should improve dramatically, but that is partly due to German govt intervention to push up production.


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## mjr (9 Feb 2021)

Austria unlocking with a lateral-flow test negative result certificate required before being allowed to go to some places like hairdressers or cinemas. Rumours that certs will be needed to enter more places soon. Govt claims lockdown is doing next to naff all against new variants at their level of cases and wider testing should perform better - if so, they will unlock to allow the economy to turnover. https://www.austria.info/en/service-and-facts/coronavirus-information https://www.euronews.com/2021/02/09...trance-testing-initiative-in-shops-and-salons

Czechia unlocking but I don't know details.

Bavaria's CSU leader threatening to close borders with Austria and Czechia because of this, accusing them of being "mutation territories".

View: https://twitter.com/MarkusBlume/status/1358326200263979008


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## deptfordmarmoset (9 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Austria unlocking with a lateral-flow test negative result certificate required before being allowed to go to some places like hairdressers or cinemas. Rumours that certs will be needed to enter more places soon. Govt claims lockdown is doing next to naff all against new variants at their level of cases and wider testing should perform better - if so, they will unlock to allow the economy to turnover. https://www.austria.info/en/service-and-facts/coronavirus-information https://www.euronews.com/2021/02/09...trance-testing-initiative-in-shops-and-salons
> 
> Czechia unlocking but I don't know details.
> 
> ...



So Bavarian covid now has its own Reinheitsgebot!


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## mjr (9 Feb 2021)

First press conference of WHO investigators visiting China rules out laboratory source. https://apnews.com/article/world-ne...ited-nations-7a739e01f0713ebcc031d7ca81c51345


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## JBGooner (9 Feb 2021)

After a seemingly very rapid investigation the WHO experts have ruled it 'extremely unlikely' that this deadly virus emerged from the deadly virus factory in Wuhan.
Yeah, probably just emerged naturally in the wet market not half a mile away.


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## mjr (9 Feb 2021)

JBGooner said:


> After a seemingly very rapid investigation [...]


 This is the first press conference, after four weeks of visit. The investigation has not concluded and does not seem to be "very rapid" to me.


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## johnblack (9 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> This is the first press conference, after four weeks of visit. The investigation has not concluded and does not seem to be "very rapid" to me.


With the amount of money and influence China have in the WHO, the cynic in me doesn't expect any big reveals.


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## Rocky (9 Feb 2021)

johnblack said:


> With the amount of money and influence China have in the WHO, the cynic in me doesn't expect any big reveals.


Perhaps because there aren't any big reveals. Viruses mutate naturally. Some mutations are harmless and others are deadly. That's the natural order; and there is no need to look for any conspiracy theory.


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## Rusty Nails (9 Feb 2021)

China has been less than helpful to the investigation so far, and they are not averse to promoting their own conspiracy theories about the virus having in fact been brought into the country.

Their initial response to announcing and researching the pandemic is also an ongoing subject of criticism.

Their closed book attitude to what the world is allowed to see about problems in China is bound to lead to a suspicion of cover-up.

We will probably only ever know as much about what truly happened as China allows us to.


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## Ajax Bay (9 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> rules out


WHO team - press report https://apnews.com/article/world-ne...ited-nations-7a739e01f0713ebcc031d7ca81c51345
"Rules out" as in: "not going to look / expend more effort on it any further" (the reporting (your link) does offer 'rule out' but that's journalists for you).
"dismissing as unlikely [the] theory that the virus leaked from a Chinese lab. "
"consider the possibility of such a leak so improbable that it will not be suggested as an avenue of future study "
So what has the WHO team discovered or resolved (in their 4 weeks there)?
WHO team leader said the initial findings suggest the most likely pathway the virus followed was from a bat to another animal and then to humans. Isn't that what the Chinese told us a year ago? (It's the most likely. What further lines of investigation are getting more effort?)
The Chinese have suggested as possibilities: possible origins in frozen food imports and pre-Wuhan cases in Europe.

Lab leakage does seem unlikely (imho), but even scientists at the Wuhan lab considered leakage a possibility bitd and iirc noted the risk in at least one proposal paper (building chimeric viruses based on circulating strains - balance between preparing for future outbreaks v risk of creating more dangerous pathogens).

A lab leak remains a plausible scientific hypothesis to be investigated regardless of how likely or unlikely (how will the WHO team have attempted to test such a hypothesis - with great difficulty in China I reckon).
Evidence for a natural spillover has not emerged and neither has any evidence for a laboratory accident. The first most plausible: the second unlikely.


Rocky said:


> Perhaps because there aren't any big reveals. Viruses mutate naturally. Some mutations are harmless and others are deadly. That's the natural order; and there is no need to look for any conspiracy theory.


Lab leak is not a 'conspiracy' theory. It's a 'cock-up' theory. Viruses mutate naturally (of course). Mercifully ones lethal to humans hardly ever jump across the animal/human divide. It's entirely reasonable to try to find out how it happened in case lessons can be identified.


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## Rocky (9 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Lab leak is not a 'conspiracy' theory. It's a 'cock-up' theory. Viruses mutate naturally (of course). Mercifully ones lethal to humans hardly ever jump across the animal/human divide. It's entirely reasonable to try to find out how it happened in case lessons can be identified.


There were a number of people on here, and on other social media platforms, suggesting that it was a deliberate leak by the Chinese and that somehow Chinese scientists deliberately developed the SARS Covid 2 virus. It was this that behind my comment. I don't disagree with anything else you've said


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## Ajax Bay (9 Feb 2021)

Have they found the virus in pangolins living close enough to Wuhan to reasonably have been brought to market there? The cock-up lab leak theory goes: there are over 600 other 'wetmarkets' in China, so an unhappy 1 in 600+ chance of the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan being the source.
Edit: As a 'johnny come lately' to this thread, I have no doubt that this unlikely possibility was masticated to death this time last year, but even I am not planning to wade back though hundreds of pages. (Edit: found an Express link @numbnuts posted and a 'refute type post from @Yellow Fang )
You'd think with all the genomic 'power' that we've got around the world (including in the Wuhan Institute of Virology) that there'd be an evidence trail (in at least one intermediary if a coronavirus in bats is the source). But perhaps it's now gone cold (frozen even).
Come to think of it, the Porton Down research establishment is just outside Salisbury, and Salisbury cathedral is quite lovely (source: Intourist).


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## JBGooner (10 Feb 2021)

Good article on Unherd on the WHO's 'investigation' into the origin of the virus https://unherd.com/2021/02/the-whos-covid-shame/

(WIV - Wuhan Institute of Virology)



> ..We know the controlling nature of Chinese state repression. We know there have been many leaks before from labs, including 11 Sars infections from a top-security Beijing research centre in 2004. We know there were safety concerns since they were admitted by WIV’s head of security in a journal shortly before the outbreak. We know databases of unpublished viruses were hidden from outsiders. And we know that for all the WHO team’s faith in the WIV security, much of their Sars research was carried out at lower security labs in the city,
> 
> We also know scientists in Wuhan initially feared the novel coronavirus leaked from their lab. We know they were performing risky “gain of function” research that forces evolution of viruses, which some scientists have long feared might spark pandemic. We know they were combining snippets from different strains of bat coronaviruses and creating chimeric diseases using cloning techniques that display no sign of human manipulation. We know they were injecting viruses into “humanised mice” and trying to determine how bat diseases jump the barrier between species. We know also this new disease was well adapted to human transmission, possessing a mutation that allows its spike protein to bind to many human cells that is not found on similar types of coronaviruses. And we know two Chinese scientists in February claimed “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan” before their paper was hastily deleted."


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## fossyant (11 Feb 2021)

Who goes on 'holiday' then moans about what happened. Only an idiot would travel internationally - you do it, you expect the risk of being stranded. It's been like that for nearly a year now. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...esidents-trapped-overseas-by-quarantine-rules


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## Oldhippy (11 Feb 2021)

Agree Fossyant, yes we're bored, yes it's in convenient but it is a pandemic that is affecting everyone. Totally idiotic thinking 'Oh we'll be fine'.


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## mjr (11 Feb 2021)

fossyant said:


> Who goes on 'holiday' then moans about what happened. Only an idiot would travel internationally - you do it, you expect the risk of being stranded. It's been like that for nearly a year now.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...esidents-trapped-overseas-by-quarantine-rules


Maybe for holiday, but plenty of non-idiots are still having to travel internationally, especially for work, so I think that's a bit harsh. Two of those in that report were visiting family and the reasons aren't given, but maybe not on a simple holiday.

Are we even sure that national travel will be immune from lockdown rules prohibiting you from returning home in an attempt to contain new variants? It hasn't happened in the UK yet, but it has in some countries. Any travel carries some risk of this now IMO.


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## Oldhippy (11 Feb 2021)

There are clearly some important exceptions, but again with the amount of tech around these days are these a must? Red Cross and medical teams of all nations are an obvious exception. Just going a regular holiday, skiers for example is that worth your life potentially?


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## Ajax Bay (11 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Any travel carries some risk of this now IMO.


Apart from cycling; obv. No risk of being stopped from cycling home.


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## CanucksTraveller (11 Feb 2021)

fossyant said:


> Who goes on 'holiday' then moans about what happened. Only an idiot would travel internationally - you do it, you expect the risk of being stranded. It's been like that for nearly a year now.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...esidents-trapped-overseas-by-quarantine-rules



I love the clever workaround plan that Maria (stuck in Portugal) has hatched... 


> "Now, she is considering flying back via a third country if rules allow"


Well even a cursory glance at the rules tells you that if you've been in a red list country, you have to declare that and enter the isolation programme. And to lie about that to circumvent quarantine carries a ten grand fine, or ten year stretch at HM's pleasure. 

I half expect to see Maria bleating in the papers soon that she "didn't know" she would be fined 10 grand for merely telling the tiniest of white lies.


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## mjr (11 Feb 2021)

CanucksTraveller said:


> I love the clever workaround plan that Maria (stuck in Portugal) has hatched...
> 
> Well even a cursory glance at the rules tells you that if you've been in a red list country, you have to declare that and enter the isolation programme. And to lie about that to circumvent quarantine carries a ten grand fine, or ten year stretch at HM's pleasure.


I read that as to get around the lack of flights, not the quarantine requirement, as in this section from the article:


> "I have pre-settled status, but the flights keep being cancelled.” Now, she is considering flying back via a third country if rules allow, but is concerned about the cost of a hotel quarantine should that be necessary.


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## mjr (11 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Apart from cycling; obv. No risk of being stopped from cycling home.


Really? Have all border/zone closures been allowing cyclists through?


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## Ajax Bay (11 Feb 2021)

Do you empathise with the plight the subjects of the article have unexpectedly found themselves in, @mjr ? (I don't btw. Motive for each Maria was given as 'visiting family'. I'd like to, too.)


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## matticus (11 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Do you empathise with the plight the subjects of the article have unexpectedly found themselves in, @mjr ? (I don't btw. Motive for each Maria was given as 'visiting family'. I'd like to, too.)


That's a tricky one to answer ... but one of the Marias does make a good point:
‘Travel is almost a privilege now: you have to be rich enough to pay for quarantine’

You can still be rich and feckless, and fly around without huge inconvenience from the pandemic.


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## CanucksTraveller (11 Feb 2021)

matticus said:


> You can still be rich and feckless, and fly around without huge inconvenience from the pandemic.


Up to a point... yes you may be able to _afford_ the 2 week hotel stay coming from a red list country, but you're still going to have to do it. 2 weeks in a hotel room is a pretty unpleasant and huge inconvenience I'd say. You'll be dismantling your Corby trouser press by day two. (And you can't even visit Michael in the BP garage).


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## Joey Shabadoo (11 Feb 2021)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Up to a point... yes you may be able to _afford_ the 2 week hotel stay coming from a red list country, but you're still going to have to do it. 2 weeks in a hotel room is a pretty unpleasant and huge inconvenience I'd say. You'll be dismantling your Corby trouser press by day two. (And you can't even visit Michael in the BP garage).


Ten years in prison or 10 days in a Travelodge. That's a toughie.


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## MrGrumpy (11 Feb 2021)

We did an overnight stay in the Travelodge in Doncaster about 4yrs ago, the room did remind my boys of what prison may look like


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## Ajax Bay (11 Feb 2021)

Think 14 days in a hotel room is a pretty huge inconvenience for most, rich or not @matticus
The main problem is that, when deciding to travel or not, people will have built in /accepted the high risk that they be required by law to self-isolate for 14 days/ 10 days on return from overseas, and, if sensible recognised the risk of flight delays and associated expenditure. But that non-enforceable non quarantine has now been superseded (if it happens) with proper quarantining, at the traveller's considerable (and unanticipated) expense.
It's in the national interest that the amount of the B.1.351 variant be minimised in UK. 'We' are trying to clamp down on it in the known areas where there is still limited circulation. And 'we' want to avoid re-seeding it elsewhere by travellers returning to UK and then spreading into the community. Some of those are bound to be asymptomatic carriers and the adherence to q-self-isolation has been low (these are the cohort who've chosen to travel abroad in a pandemic, remember). I'd prefer this not to be yet another bill picked up by the exchequer. If that makes travel at present (UK and many other countries "locked down" more expensive overall; fine by me. I note it's also/separately proposed that the purpose of outgoing travel will need to declared and 'checked' before being allowed to fly.
The full list of countries which will have to stay at a quarantine hotel are:

Angola
Argentina
Bolivia
Botswana
Burundi
Brazil
Cape Verde
Chile
Colombia
Democratic Republic of Congo
Ecuador
Eswatini
French Guiana
Guyana
Lesotho
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Portugal (including Madeira and the Azores)
Rwanda
Seychelles
South Africa
Suriname
Tanzania
UAE
Uruguay
Venezuela
Zambia
Zimbabwe


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## mjr (11 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Do you empathise with the plight the subjects of the article have unexpectedly found themselves in, @mjr ? (I don't btw. Motive for each Maria was given as 'visiting family'. I'd like to, too.)


Well, I've not seen most of my family for 18+ months except for video calls, but I do sympathise a little with those visiting family. There but for the Graces, and so on: it is not difficult to see that one of my generation of our family might want to visit one of the older generation (many of whom now live alone) and help out for a while if they have problems. Can anyone not see themselves ever being or ever having been possible to end up in a similar situation? Should people should abandon relatives to the care of their local state services rather than travel to help?

My relatives are all currently in this country (AFAIK), but that is not true for some of the in-laws of my generation... and unlike some on here, I don't see national boundaries as especially difficult for viruses to cross.


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## Ajax Bay (11 Feb 2021)

I can relate to the two Marias' motive (visiting family). Nearly everyone with family is in the same boat. But I can't sympathise with their plight: it could be qualitatively foreseen, or at least it could be foreseen that they might have to stay put and visit their family for longer (and that's hopefully a bonus for each of the Marias). The dislocation of expectation is the requirement to pay serious money for hotel quarantine food and accommodation.


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## matticus (11 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I can relate to the two Marias' motive (visiting family). Nearly everyone with family is in the same boat. But I can't sympathise with their plight: it could be qualitatively foreseen, or at least it could be foreseen that they might have to stay put and visit their family for longer (and that's hopefully a bonus for each of the Marias). *The dislocation of expectation is the requirement to pay serious money for hotel quarantine food and accommodation.*


So how come you don't see how wealth may mitigate this?


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## Ajax Bay (11 Feb 2021)

I can see how having 'wealth' could mitigate the above. Are you ascribing to me the opposite view from my comments above? But I'm afraid it doesn't impact my 'Clapham omnibus' sympathy level.
Those who can 'afford' the financial risk of being forced to pay to quarantine in a hotel for 14 days can minimise that disadvantage.
But incarceration in an airport hotel is still a massive inconvenience, money or no money. I hope those in that position realise that it's for the good of the wider community when feeling sorry for themselves.
Leaving UK to travel abroad, and back "is almost a privilege now: you have to be rich feckless enough" Maria might have said.


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## mjr (11 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I can relate to the two Marias' motive (visiting family). Nearly everyone with family is in the same boat. But I can't sympathise with their plight: it could be qualitatively foreseen, or at least it could be foreseen that they might have to stay [...]


Come on! Is her plight "unexpected" or "could [it] be qualitively foreseen"?


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## AuroraSaab (12 Feb 2021)

The symptoms are so variable and whilst older folk or people with underlying conditions are more at risk, it's worth noting that many do recover. A 92 year old relative of my OH's, with a lot of other illnesses going on, had it and recovered. I know quite a few who have had it with symptoms between almost asymptomatic to feeling really rough for 2 weeks. We need to all keep up the vigilance and hopefully the decline in infections will continue.


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## Ajax Bay (12 Feb 2021)

Cancelled flights and quarantine complications (and potential for additional costs) on return to UK would surely be foreseeable when the various trips were being planned/booked and certainly when flying out - that's what I described as qualitatively foreseeable. These sorts of risks in 'normal' life can routinely be insured for. Not at present though: people are travelling uninsured against these hazards.
HTH


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## Ajax Bay (12 Feb 2021)

AuroraSaab said:


> whilst older folk or people with underlying conditions are more at risk, it's worth noting that many do recover


The PH England 'Green Book' Ch 14a suggests that, for over 75s, the infection fatality ratio % was (summer 2020):
11.6 (9.2 female, 14.1 male)
Note: Infection fatality ratios were calculated excluding care home residents.


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## matticus (12 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> qualitatively foreseeable


I have no idea what this means!

(but this is all no big deal, I don't want to have a row about it! If you feel like explaining, go ahead :-) )


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## Ajax Bay (12 Feb 2021)

Complications (extra costs) foreseeable (so 'qualitatively') but the quantum not. Maybe this is poor or inapplicable usage. In which case 'my bad' (I'm told is the current form )


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## Ajax Bay (12 Feb 2021)

Interesting 'The Conversation' interview with Sharon Peacock, Professor of public health and microbiology at the University of Cambridge and driver of Cog-UK)
The UK is a world leader in (genomic) sequencing SARS-CoV-2. Of all the coronavirus genomes that have been sequenced in the world, nearly half have been sequenced by COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium (Cog-UK). The consortium began life on March 4 when , she emailed a handful of scientists and asked for their help. 

One Q addresses the concern that widespread vaccination will result in further mutations to our detriment or is it just case numbers?
Q: Is a certain amount of evolutionary selective pressure created when we start to vaccinate lots of people? Or is the greater number of people in which the virus has the opportunity to mutate the greater problem of the two?


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## SpokeyDokey (12 Feb 2021)

Mercifully, now down to approx' 25000 in hospital vs peak of around 39000. Still high but a huge step in the right direction.

Let's hope that this continues apace.


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## Oldhippy (12 Feb 2021)

Entirely dependent on the population inclined to immediately start partying because they think it's over and the government thinking long term not short term.


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## PK99 (12 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Interesting 'The Conversation' interview with Sharon Peacock, Professor of public health and microbiology at the University of Cambridge and driver of Cog-UK)
> The UK is a world leader in (genomic) sequencing SARS-CoV-2. Of all the coronavirus genomes that have been sequenced in the world, nearly half have been sequenced by COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium (Cog-UK). The consortium began life on March 4 when , she emailed a handful of scientists and asked for their help.
> 
> One Q addresses the concern that widespread vaccination will result in further mutations to our detriment or is it just case numbers?
> Q: Is a certain amount of evolutionary selective pressure created when we start to vaccinate lots of people? Or is the greater number of people in which the virus has the opportunity to mutate the greater problem of the two?



Thank you for that link.

Very fleet of foot!

Idea late Feb
Initiating e-mail 4 March
Government and other funding in place by 1 April

50% of world covid Genome sequencing by this project.

Very impressive leadership.


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## Pale Rider (14 Feb 2021)

Amanda Holden is the latest to join the celeb roll of Covid shame.

The excuse for her weekend away in Cornwall was the need to visit her father following a 'distressing' phone call from him.

Despite being distressed, father was kind enough not to ring his daughter until a few hours after she'd finished her radio programme on Friday.

Amanda immediately dropped everything (now there's a thought), and hotfooted it the 200 miles to be at her father's side.

Yet a spokesman for her tells us she did not 'act on whim'.

The cynic in me wonders if this was no more than a pre-planned jolly, and the phone call only 'appeared' after she was outed by The Sun.

There are medical care exemptions to the travel restrictions, but Amanda has stopped short of claiming any of those.

Even if her story is true, modern video and other communication make it very hard to justify a face to face meeting in the current circumstances.

I'm sure many ordinary families have dealt with similar situations without resorting to breaking the law.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56058923


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## mjr (14 Feb 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Amanda Holden is the latest to join the celeb roll of Covid shame.


Latest to be targetted by a media witchhunt that is ignoring the gulf between "rules" and law, more like.



> Despite being distressed, father was kind enough not to ring his daughter until a few hours after she'd finished her radio programme on Friday.


Or Friday afternoon. It's not unusual for elderly relatives to wait until someone is off work before calling



> Amanda immediately dropped everything (now there's a thought),


Perv.


> There are medical care exemptions to the travel restrictions, but Amanda has stopped short of claiming any of those.


First, she would not need to, if father is over 70, then some types of supporting him is an exception in itself too.

Secondly, it is not for her to share her father's medical details.

Maybe she could have proceeded differently, or maybe this was best. She did not make the rules and it seems a grey-area case, yet people treat her more harshly than those who do. This is odd.


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## mjr (14 Feb 2021)

Are people reluctant to accept it did not start from a lab outbreak because they are pangolin supporters?


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## Pale Rider (14 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Latest to be targetted by a media witchhunt that is ignoring the gulf between "rules" and law, more like.
> 
> 
> Or Friday afternoon. It's not unusual for elderly relatives to wait until someone is off work before calling
> ...



The quote, attributed to Amanda, that she 'had to' break the rules tells us all we need to know.

It's the usual 'the law shouldn't apply to me because I'm more important than the rest of you' displayed by far too many entertainers and sports stars.

She travelled with what an eye witness described as 'lots of luggage'.

Another indication the trip wasn't the unforeseen crisis response she claims it was.

We are told her self-awarded exemption certificate was valid partly because she didn't come into contact with any members of the public.

What was her driver in the black Mercedes - an alien?

As regards me being a perv, as a heterosexual male, I would be a perv if I didn't see the double entendre in Amanda 'dropping everything'.

Best you stick to your laughable campaign to portray everything this government does with Covid as incompetent.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (14 Feb 2021)

I'm surprised by how much earlier France's infections peaked. Is it possible that the ''Kent'' variation was already widespread but undetected in France before it was discovered in Kent? (France in dark blue, UK in light blue.)




The Guardian attributes the graph to John Hopkins but I'll be damned if I can find it!


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## mjr (14 Feb 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> The quote, attributed to Amanda, that she 'had to' break the rules tells us all we need to know.


The quote in the BBC link you gave is attributed to her agent.



> It's the usual 'the law shouldn't apply to me because I'm more important than the rest of you' displayed by far too many entertainers and sports stars.


...but not politicians, eh?



> She travelled with what an eye witness described as 'lots of luggage'.


 Not in the link given.



> Another indication the trip wasn't the unforeseen crisis response she claims it was.


 Who cannot quickly grab a "go bag" and sling some stuff in a case?



> What was her driver in the black Mercedes - an alien?


 Not in the BBC report and who knows who it was?



> As regards me being a perv, as a heterosexual male, I would be a perv if I didn't see the double entendre in Amanda 'dropping everything'.


No, you would not.



> Best you stick to your laughable campaign to portray everything this government does with Covid as incompetent.


Yes, indeed: the argument is so weak that you need to resort to unrelated personal attacks.


----------



## mjr (14 Feb 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'm surprised by how much earlier France's infections peaked. Is it possible that the ''Kent'' variation was already widespread but undetected in France before it was discovered in Kent?


Yes, it is possible. I think I read that France was not genomic-testing as much as the UK.

Another aspect not to forget is that France tried to avoid locking down again with more regional restrictions for longer, but that did not work, so they had a bigger second wave than the UK followed by a smaller third one because they stayed locked down long enough, instead of having a UK-style Christmas craziness. https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-lockdowns/


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## Pale Rider (14 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Yes, indeed: the argument is so weak that you need to resort to unrelated personal attacks.



Like calling me a perv?

Which you are now telling me I'm not.

Best to leave you in that little tangle.

The agent said 'Amanda is devastated to have had to break the rules', hence the 'had to' remark is attributable to her.

The eye witness said the driver got out, unloaded the 'large amount' of luggage, then drove off leaving Amanda and the bags on the pavement.

Is that the likely actions of her husband?

They also arrived just after dusk, leading the witness to make the reasonable speculation the arrival was timed to avoid being seen.

I agree Amanda has no responsibility to disclose her father's medical history, but that's irrelevant because she is not playing the medical card.

Had she said her father had fallen gravely ill it might have engendered some sympathy, although many law-abiding families have had to deal with serious illness of a loved one without being able to do any hand holding.

Plus were he properly ill, he would have been taken straight to hospital.

As regards politicians, yes, irrespective of what party they belong to they deserve the same shaming.

I was among the many on here who piled in on Cummings, who is a Tory politician for this purpose.

He thoroughly deserved all the slagging off he got from the public.

Holden is no different.

What would be unjust is if Holden is excused censure because she is a well-liked public figure, while Cummings is a widely disliked one.


----------



## mjr (14 Feb 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Like calling me a perv?


No, that was related to your pervy post.



> Which you are now telling me I'm not.
> 
> Best to leave you in that little tangle.


Huh?



> The agent said 'Amanda is devastated to have had to break the rules', hence the 'had to' remark is attributable to her.


No, that does not make it a quote of her.



> The eye witness said [...]


You are clearly reading lots of other articles about this, which I will not comment on, other to say that much of it seems to be what even you call "speculation" and it does not change the basics of my previous reply.



> I was among the many on here who piled in on Cummings, who is a Tory politician for this purpose.
> 
> He thoroughly deserved all the slagging off he got from the public.
> 
> Holden is no different.


Blooming well is different: Holden did not help set the rules like Cummings did. Or Jenrick. Or Eustice. Or Johnson.


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## PK99 (14 Feb 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'm surprised by how much earlier France's infections peaked. Is it possible that the ''Kent'' variation was already widespread but undetected in France before it was discovered in Kent? (France in dark blue, UK in light blue.)
> View attachment 573887
> 
> The Guardian attributes the graph to John Hopkins but I'll be damned if I can find it!



this link for the FT is similar and searchable
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=cases


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## Pale Rider (14 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> No, that was related to your pervy post.



You either called me a perv or you didn't.

You did, so that's an end to it.



mjr said:


> No, that does not make it a quote of her.



Like it or not, the quote is attributable to her.

It's the same as a government spokesman saying: "Mr Johnson does/does not accept blah blah."



mjr said:


> You are clearly reading lots of other articles about this, which I will not comment on, other to say that much of it seems to be what even you call "speculation" and it does not change the basics of my previous reply.



The BBC has already done a rewrite of The Sun story.

Remains to be seen if the others try to take it on in the next few days.

That could go either way, the next stories could undermine The Sun's exclusive, or some more skeletons might fall out of Amanda's cupboard.



mjr said:


> Blooming well is different: Holden did not help set the rules like Cummings did. Or Jenrick. Or Eustice. Or Johnson.



The responsibility to obey the rules applies equally to everyone.

Unless you think Amanda's transgression was out of some sort of misunderstanding.

But that's already ruled out by her admission she 'had to' break the rules.

I know she's a clothes horse, but does anyone really pack a large amount of luggage for an emergency family visit?

As ever with this type of story, there's more holes in the rule breakers' account than a Swiss cheese.


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## Ajax Bay (14 Feb 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> I'm sure many ordinary families have dealt with similar situations without resorting to breaking the law.


Just checking whether you mean "dealt with" as in 'just not travelling'. Edit: What other 'dealt with' mechanisms had you in minds? Others have suggested that this trip may or may not have 'broken the law' given there are various exemptions which may or may not be applicable in this incident. Not giving explanations to the media is an entirely reasonable approach: it just feeds the so-called story.
Will more people be tempted or actually make these sorts of trips (within or outwith one of the allowed exemptions) as a result of this story being publicised? If it is 'more' then actually this stuff serves to increase the travelling to and from places other than home/local/work which the restrictions seek to minimise.


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## marinyork (14 Feb 2021)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...workplaces-that-are-putting-employees-at-risk this is gravely worrying.

Not a single covid prohibition notice to a single workplace, yet other workplaces that have opened when they shouldn't have have had the council or police in some cases take action.


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## deptfordmarmoset (14 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> this link for the FT is similar and searchable
> https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=cases


Thanks, that's much more manageable.


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## Pale Rider (14 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Just checking whether you mean "dealt with" as in 'just not travelling'. Edit: What other 'dealt with' mechanisms had you in minds? Others have suggested that this trip may or may not have 'broken the law' given there are various exemptions which may or may not be applicable in this incident. Not giving explanations to the media is an entirely reasonable approach: it just feeds the so-called story.
> Will more people be tempted or actually make these sorts of trips (within or outwith one of the allowed exemptions) as a result of this story being publicised? If it is 'more' then actually this stuff serves to increase the travelling to and from places other than home/local/work which the restrictions seek to minimise.



As I posted previously, by 'deal with' I meant not travelling and using some other method to communicate such as a video call.

It certainly is a story, not least because discretionary visits to Devon and Cornwall by non-residents is a big thing for the locals there.

The story is developing a little even as we speak.

It now appears one of the witnesses is a police officer, who is the person who reported her to Devon and Cornwall police.

Nothing may come of that, they may find no enforceable law has been broken.

The agent is now saying she took only one bag, which sounds better from her point of view, but is at odds with other witness statements reported earlier.

The agent also appears to be saying she drove herself, which is definitely at odds with the witness account of the car driving off leaving her and however much luggage she did have on the pavement.

Thus the truth remains obscured, but regrettably for Holden, in this instance the evidence of a police officer is likely to be preferred over her own account.

At the very least, there's an element of hypocrisy here.

Holden recorded an NHS charity single, and apparently has been a strong advocate of people sticking to the restrictions.

She's just the same as that Scottish doc who was on the telly lecturing people to stay at home before nipping off to visit her holiday caravan - twice.

The pair of them couldn't provide a better example of 'do as I say, not as I do' if they tried.


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## Ajax Bay (14 Feb 2021)

I trust your parents are both hale and hearty, Paley.
If my mother called in some distress, I think I would make the same decision as this broadcaster. Travel straight there. Interact with noone other than parents. Travel straight back.
My primary concern in the spring and the November onwards lockdowns would have been the risk of passing the virus to her (and the subsequent family opprobrium should she fall or heaven forbid die (in nineties)). She's now vaccinated (Pfizer, second one on 7 Jan) so I'd be much less concerned about the threat to her if I visited, which I'll not be till restrictions allow for 'normal' visits. I'm lucky: she is well and firing on all cylinders. Others are far less lucky.
I correctly assumed that by 'deal with' you meant just "deal with it".


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Feb 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> What would be unjust is if Holden is excused censure because she is a well-liked public figure, while Cummings is a widely disliked one



Random celeb is not in any way comparable to PMs most senior advisor.

PM has not attempted to justify Holden.


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Feb 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> As regards me being a perv, as a heterosexual male, I would be a perv if I didn't see the double entendre in Amanda 'dropping everything'.



As a heterosexual male, please don't presume you speak for anyone but yourself.


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## numbnuts (14 Feb 2021)

I've just got off the phone and Amanda parents Les and Judy are fine, how do I know that ...........


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## mjr (14 Feb 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> As a heterosexual male, please don't presume you speak for anyone but yourself.


Especially as there was no need to use the expression "dropped everything" which did not appear in the linked BBC report.


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## Johnno260 (15 Feb 2021)

lol had a nice Zoom call where another relative invited my Covid Denying Aunt and Uncle, that was fun, they started tell my mother not to take the flu jab as it contains mercury and the such, when it got the nano trackers in the Covid one I couldn’t hold it in anymore.

I said it’s a mercury derivative not pure mercury a simple google search will tell you this.

I said the nano trackers lol far easier ways of doing that plus you own and use a smart phone and GPS tracker smart watches, so don’t be a hypocrite if you’re gonna preach they are tracking you while using an abundance of traceable tech. I also said why are you so important you need to be tracked.

it then bounced back to an earlier argument where they argued that Covid isn’t classed in the same degree as Ebola, I said no totally different ones a respiratory illness the other is a haemorrhagic fever, in this same earlier arguement I had also said I trust some people I know on their opinions, one is a doc I have known since pre school so life long friends virtually, I got the my mate in the pub said comment.

I did retort back one of these is far from a friend, they said some dumb comment, I said you forget my wife’s a nurse so yea go figure, their response, well yea but she is paid to parrot what the government line is, that’s why people are picketing and attacking hospital staff.

Kinda lost my mind with that comment and told them exactly what I thought of them and their crackpot ideas, I laid a load of deaths on people like them saying/spreading this crap as the reason some don’t stick to the rules so they are in directly responsible.

I’m not doing family Zoom meetings again, then again, it’s better than face to face where I think I wouldn’t knocked his block off.


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## mjr (16 Feb 2021)

Nightclub in Birmingham and pub in Dudley raided by police, loads of daffodils picked up https://www.thejournal.ie/birmingham-illegal-nightclub-5355570-Feb2021/


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## mjr (16 Feb 2021)

NZ has put Auckland into lockdown after 3 cases of B.1.1.7 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...land-covid-outbreak-is-uk-variant-says-ardern


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## AuroraSaab (16 Feb 2021)

Any thoughts on the reported big decline in infection cases in India? Been suggested they might be achieving herd immunity but I can't see that at this stage. Younger population being asymptomatic? People not reporting infections?

I was worried that once covid hit the developing world it would engulf them, but that doesn't seem to be the case at the moment, apart from South America. Hopefully they will all be getting the vaccine too pretty soon.


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## mjr (16 Feb 2021)

AuroraSaab said:


> Any thoughts on the reported big decline in infection cases in India? Been suggested they might be achieving herd immunity but I can't see that at this stage. Younger population being asymptomatic? People not reporting infections?


Those are three theories. Others include immunity as a result of some other illness prevalent in India (candidates include cholera, typhoid and tuberculosis), extreme enforcement of mask-wearing, or the wide variations in population density hindering the spread. See https://www.thejournal.ie/india-covid19-case-levels-drop-5355716-Feb2021/

Meanwhile, a court in the Netherlands has struck down their curfew because the government used emergency powers to impose it, rather than attempting legislation. https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/...ly-court-rules-the-hague-rutte-viruswaarheid/


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## PK99 (16 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Meanwhile, a court in the Netherlands has struck down their curfew because the government used emergency powers to impose it, rather than attempting legislation. https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/...ly-court-rules-the-hague-rutte-viruswaarheid/




Lliberal Western democracies struggle where the authoritarian countries or compliant Asian cultures find control or compliance much easier


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## Ajax Bay (16 Feb 2021)

Please could someone share a good link for me to use with someone down here (ie local) showing the direct effect of lock down on the number of cases reported daily - any country.


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## mjr (16 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> Lliberal Western democracies struggle where the authoritarian countries or compliant Asian cultures find control or compliance much easier


Maybe, but why should emergency powers be used for this shoot instead of passing laws in the normal manner, albeit maybe with a sped-up process? Of course, it is easy to sit in the UK and write this, because most of the law being used for our lockdown was passed almost 40 years ago under a landslide government so I don't know how much scrutiny it had.


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## mjr (16 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Please could someone share a good link for me to use with someone down here (ie local) showing the direct effect of lock down on the number of cases reported daily - any country.


Best I can think of right now is to go to https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-lockdowns/ and open the lockdown tracker in one window and the case graphs in another and put them side by side.

Remember of course that restrictions work on the R number, which then takes a while to show up in case detection rate changes.


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## AuroraSaab (16 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Those are three theories. Others include immunity as a result of some other illness prevalent in India (candidates include cholera, typhoid and tuberculosis),



That's interesting, thanks for that. I know early on over here there was some speculation that older ethnic minority patients were suffering a higher death rate because they came to the UK as adults and hadn't had the MMR etc that kids get here.

But I guess they were also too old to have been part of mass vaccination in India etc. when it was introduced. It will be years I suppose until we know how much of a part these factors play.


----------



## Craig the cyclist (16 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Please could someone share a good link for me to use with someone down here (ie local) showing the direct effect of lock down on the number of cases reported daily - any country.



Where do you live?


----------



## vickster (16 Feb 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Where do you live?


His location says East Devon


----------



## AuroraSaab (16 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Please could someone share a good link for me to use with someone down here (ie local) showing the direct effect of lock down on the number of cases reported daily - any country.



Can't find a daily one. I use the BBC covid checker, but it's weekly.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51768274


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## classic33 (16 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Please could someone share a good link for me to use with someone down here (ie local) showing the direct effect of lock down on the number of cases reported daily - any country.


Any use?
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/detailed-county-statistics


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## Ajax Bay (16 Feb 2021)

Thank you @AuroraSaab , but I'm after " showing *the direct effect of lock down* on the number of cases reported daily".
I am familiar (over-familiar?) with the day-to-day figures but looking for something I can use to demonstrate a causative relationship rather than a correlation. Maybe I'll have to go the other way and show how failure to lock down meant the cases numbers were greater than they would have been if the country (Sweden? or state in US, say) had locked down.
Thank you @classic33


----------



## classic33 (16 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Thank you @AuroraSaab , but I'm after " showing *the direct effect of lock down* on the number of cases reported daily".
> I am familiar (over-familiar?) with the day-to-day figures but looking for something I can use to demonstrate a causative relationship rather than a correlation. Maybe I'll have to go the other way and show how failure to lock down meant the cases numbers were greater than they would have been if the country (Sweden? or state in US, say) had locked down.
> Thank you @classic33


Ireland has a larger limit, 5km, on travel* this time as opposed to 2km the first time last year.

*From your home.

A breakdown at County level
http://www.clare.fm/news/15-new-covid-19-cases-confirmed-clare-744-new-cases-nationally/


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## AuroraSaab (17 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Thank you @AuroraSaab , but I'm after " showing *the direct effect of lock down* on the number of cases reported daily".
> I am familiar (over-familiar?) with the day-to-day figures but looking for something I can use to demonstrate a causative relationship rather than a correlation. Maybe I'll have to go the other way and show how failure to lock down meant the cases numbers were greater than they would have been if the country (Sweden? or state in US, say) had locked down.
> Thank you @classic33



There's the government site that gives daily cases going back to Jan 2020, plus other data.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

But I don't know what this would give you that the graphs showing the gradual decline of cases under lockdown wouldn't, as they will be based on the daily data anyway.


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## mjr (17 Feb 2021)

Here is the FT lockdown strictness tracker stretched to the same scale as the FT covid case chart, plotted for the maximum six countries that the FT chart allows, using Europe's "big five" plus Belgium because it's nearby and tracked (unlike Ireland which does not appear on the FT lockdown tracker).

Remember that comparisons between countries, or even between Spring 2020 and later, are fraught with difficulties because of different reporting standards, testing capacities and strategies, and so on. All we are interested in for now is whether the lockdown tracker bar darkening is followed by the case curve for that country turning more towards downhill — and I think it usually is.

Of course, the most interesting ones are where cases started to slow or fall without lockdown tightening, such as Spain in early November. That may be because there was some tightening not captured by the FT tracker, because some ineffective measures were replaced with more effective ones which resulted in no change in the FT's lockdown rating, because there was some non-law-based attitude change in the country's population (due to a high profile covid death or illness, perhaps?), because lockdowns in France and the UK had an effect in Spain, or for some other reason.


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## PK99 (17 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Here is the FT lockdown strictness tracker stretched to the same scale as the FT covid case chart, plotted for the maximum six countries that the FT chart allows, using Europe's "big five" plus Belgium because it's nearby and tracked (unlike Ireland which does not appear on the FT lockdown tracker).
> 
> Remember that comparisons between countries, or even between Spring 2020 and later, are fraught with difficulties because of different reporting standards, testing capacities and strategies, and so on. All we are interested in for now is whether the lockdown tracker bar darkening is followed by the case curve for that country turning more towards downhill — and I think it usually is.
> 
> Of course, the most interesting ones are where cases started to slow or fall without lockdown tightening, such as Spain in early November. That may be because there was some tightening not captured by the FT tracker, because some ineffective measures were replaced with more effective ones which resulted in no change in the FT's lockdown rating, because there was some non-law-based attitude change in the country's population (due to a high profile covid death or illness, perhaps?), because lockdowns in France and the UK had an effect in Spain, or for some other reason.



Interesting plot.

I must be being dumb as I cant work out how to find/create that plot on the FT tracker page. Can you help?


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## mjr (17 Feb 2021)

PK99 said:


> Interesting plot.
> 
> I must be being dumb as I cant work out how to find/create that plot on the FT tracker page. Can you help?


Cases: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...1&per100K=1&startDate=2020-01-23&values=cases

Lockdowns: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-lockdowns/

The graph images were downloaded using a screenshot tool. The overlaying and scaling was by eye in the GNU Image Manipulation Program and I've already spotted two small ways that it is a bit off, but I feel it's near enough that the impression is still valid.


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## Joey Shabadoo (17 Feb 2021)

View: https://twitter.com/BBC_Cumbria/status/1361577260617187329


'sakes


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## Bazzer (17 Feb 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> View: https://twitter.com/BBC_Cumbria/status/1361577260617187329
> 
> 
> 'sakes




https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/m...injured-just-giving-link.272186/#post-6316454


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## DaveReading (17 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Thank you @AuroraSaab , but I'm after "showing *the direct effect of lock down* on the number of cases reported daily".



You can plot daily cases against the changes in the lockdown regime, but that's not the same as demonstrating that the former is wholly a direct effect of the latter.


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## midlife (17 Feb 2021)

Can somebody help me with maths, at the current rate of decrease of cases when will it dip below 1000 a day on average, tia


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## DaveReading (17 Feb 2021)

midlife said:


> Can somebody help me with maths, at the current rate of decrease of cases when will it dip below 1000 a day on average, tia



When there have been fewer than 7000 cases in the previous week (the numbers quoted are a 7-day moving average).


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## mjr (17 Feb 2021)

DaveReading said:


> You can plot daily cases against the changes in the lockdown regime, but that's not the same as demonstrating that the former is wholly a direct effect of the latter.


It doesn't prove it, but it does show it. And not "wholly" but I think that's a new demand.

Now that there is more data, it does also pretty strongly suggest that the usual suspects who came out with over-egged anti-lockdown papers are shoot-shovelling daffodils. It may be that lockdowns aren't completely necessary, but they do seem to reduce R.


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## midlife (17 Feb 2021)

DaveReading said:


> When there have been fewer than 7000 cases in the previous week (the numbers quoted are a 7-day moving average).



Currently at circa 89,000 total last 7 days so might take a while to get below 7,000 a week. Just curious as it has been suggested that less than 1000 a day would be when lockdown could be relaxed (apart from schools). Mind you I'm not sure what Boris is thinking!


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## shep (17 Feb 2021)

How are people catching it amazes me, aren't we all meant to be in the house?
I'm still working but apart from the same 4 blokes haven't really seen anyone else apart from family I live with for months!


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## Julia9054 (17 Feb 2021)

shep said:


> How are people catching it amazes me, aren't we all meant to be in the house?
> I'm still working but apart from the same 4 blokes haven't really seen anyone else apart from family I live with for months!


How many people are those 4 blokes seeing? You are indirectly seeing all of them


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## shep (17 Feb 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> How many people are those 4 blokes seeing? You are indirectly seeing all of them


I understand that but no-one from Work has had it or their friends from what I can gather, It's a necessary risk unfortunately for my Family, Son's a Prison Officer and Daughter's a TA in nursery.


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## Bazzer (17 Feb 2021)

shep said:


> How are people catching it amazes me, aren't we all meant to be in the house?
> I'm still working but apart from the same 4 blokes haven't really seen anyone else apart from family I live with for months!


The news is littered with people not following the rules and they are the ones who are caught. Look at the just giving thread for the Patterdale Mountain Rescue team member as an example. Also comments made by one or two on CC suggest there are some here whose regard for others is lacking.


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## Julia9054 (17 Feb 2021)

shep said:


> I understand that but no-one from Work has had it or their friends from what I can gather, It's a necessary risk unfortunately for my Family, Son's a Prison Officer and Daughter's a TA in nursery.


Wasn't meant to be a dig at you personally. You asked how are people catching it - by mixing for work in small groups who are also mixing in families/support bubbles.


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## classic33 (17 Feb 2021)

Council have closed one testing station down. 
No access to the site.


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## mjr (17 Feb 2021)

classic33 said:


> Council have closed one testing station down.
> No access to the site.


 How big an outbreak had it caused?


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## classic33 (17 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> How big an outbreak had it caused?


None, as far as I'm aware.

It's a money saving exercise.


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## Unkraut (17 Feb 2021)

22% of new infections here are the British variant. Doubling roughly every week. 

On a bit of a knife-edge as to whether the current lockdown will still be able to keep the reduction in the infection rate going down. It's nearly got to 50 per 100 000 but the new target before relaxing restrictions is now 35. 

Bureaucracy is the same the world over - how do you get it to get a shift on?! The tracing and testing provision is still not fully up to speed, though improved, and they have had a year to work on it.


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## mjr (17 Feb 2021)

DaveReading said:


> When there have been fewer than 7000 cases in the previous week (the numbers quoted are a 7-day moving average).


The headline 7 day moving average figure of 12,400ish is per day, though.

I reckon reaching 1000 per day will take almost 4 weeks on current trend but it has just wobbled shallower so it could take longer if that is due to nobbers reacting to the reduced R number by slackening. Hopefully it is just random variation and not a change in trend.

Actually, schools reopening will shallow the descent anyway, so it will probably be longer. Can Johnson hold on that long?


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## Ajax Bay (18 Feb 2021)

midlife said:


> Can somebody help me with maths, at the current rate of decrease of cases when will it dip below 1000 a day on average, tia
> Edit to add: Currently at circa 89,000 total last 7 days so might take a while to get below 7,000 a week. Just curious as it has been suggested that less than 1000 a day would be when lockdown could be relaxed (apart from schools).


[/QUOTE]
#All figures are 7-day averages (as opposed to a particular day eg Thursday) Edit: 14 Feb = 12,289pd (x 7 is 86,023pw)
I plotted the UK reported case numbers out assuming that the rate falls 25% each week: this is an average of what it's been doing the last three weeks (+ or - 2). Answer: Case rate will drop below 1000 a day on* 17 Apr* (chart shows 945 on 18 Apr). From 29,900 on 24 Jan, 12,289 on 14 Feb (both data); estimate: 9328 on 21 Feb, 7080 on 28 Feb, 5310 on 7 Mar).
Note this is not what you asked but is likely more representative (see alternative answer below the graph) and is the type of decay seen in epidemics (see second clip below).
I observe that the daily case rate (much less testing mind*) was below 1000pd from 24 Jun - 18 Aug.
*Testing rates were 86kpd on 24 Jun and 615kpd on 10 Feb.





[If we keep the current numerical rate of decrease it'll dip below 1000 per day on about 7 Mar (beware the Nones of March!).
(reducing by 550 a day for 21 days from 14 Feb). Just in time for getting our children back to education proper.]
Here is the daily reported death graph (1 Mar - 1 Aug) from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths to show the more likely decay curve.


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## PaulSB (18 Feb 2021)

shep said:


> How are people catching it amazes me, aren't we all meant to be in the house?
> I'm still working but apart from the same 4 blokes haven't really seen anyone else apart from family I live with for months!


It can only be the level of contact one either has to have, going to work etc, or is prepared to risk.

My household severely limits contacts. Supermarket once a week. My wife occasionally meets a friend to go walking. I only cycle with the same four people and we agreed a year ago we would not socialise with others. Our sons have been in the house three times since this began.

We are retired so this is easy to achieve. I would say all our friends, bar one who we now completely avoid, have taken this stance.

The only variation to this, locked down or not, has been if we can meet in groups of six or not. If six is allowed my wife has played outdoor tennis and I have ridden with 3-4 others.

When I'm out I gain the impression this is not possible for or ignored by many. I'm very glad not to work.


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## johnblack (18 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> It doesn't prove it, but it does show it. And not "wholly" but I think that's a new demand.
> 
> Now that there is more data, it does also pretty strongly suggest that the usual suspects who came out with over-egged anti-lockdown papers are shoot-shovelling *daffodils.* It may be that lockdowns aren't completely necessary, but they do seem to reduce R.


I've seen you use this term on here many times and I've got to ask, what does it mean, I presume it's a derogatory term for a certain type of person, but what type? Many thanks.👍


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## vickster (18 Feb 2021)

johnblack said:


> I've seen you use this term on here many times and I've got to ask, what does it mean, I presume it's a derogatory term for a certain type of person, but what type? Many thanks.👍


IIRC it's a certain highly offensive word beginning with c that is changed by the forum swear filter


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## johnblack (18 Feb 2021)

vickster said:


> IIRC it's a certain highly offensive word beginning with c that is changed by the forum swear filter


Wow, how pleasant.


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## vickster (18 Feb 2021)

johnblack said:


> Wow, how pleasant.


Indeed


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## mjr (18 Feb 2021)

vickster said:


> IIRC it's a certain highly offensive word beginning with c that is changed by the forum swear filter


No, it's an unthinking but pretty flower with zero IQ score, much like the "lockdown kills" advocates when publishing on lockdown topics. Best thing is to hope they die back to hidden bulbs when no longer nice to see, and keep them starved of nourishment so they don't multiply under the surface.


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## matticus (18 Feb 2021)

crocus ?

EDIT: no, that seems to get through OK ...


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## marinyork (18 Feb 2021)

shep said:


> How are people catching it amazes me, aren't we all meant to be in the house?
> I'm still working but apart from the same 4 blokes haven't really seen anyone else apart from family I live with for months!



Yesterday I was coding in the morning and popped out to a park later. Half term plus sunshine plus 12 Celcius temperature rise from the previous week and people fed up of the continuous toll of being indoors with children.

The playgrounds had 150 to 200 children and adults reasonably closely packed. As opposed to the usual ten or so. In some of these age groups transmission is quite a lot lower but present even with it being 19x lower outdoors. There are all sorts of transmission including parties and so on. Traffic has noticeably picked up the last two weeks.

It looks like the old neighbours are having people indoors again in numbers far larger than a support bubble or childcare bubble.


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## shep (18 Feb 2021)

johnblack said:


> I've seen you use this term on here many times and I've got to ask, what does it mean, I presume it's a derogatory term for a certain type of person, but what type? Many thanks.👍


I wondered this so Googled it, the explanation I found was ' a nice Girl, a sort of goody Two shoes' so the context it's used on here makes no sense to me but there you go.

I had to ask about all manor of phrases.


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## johnblack (18 Feb 2021)

shep said:


> I wondered this so Googled it, the explanation I found was ' a nice Girl, a sort of goody Two shoes' so the context it's used on here makes no sense to me but there you go.
> 
> I had to ask about all manor of phrases.


Turns out it's a really unpleasant word, auto corrected in CC to something rather pleasant.


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## classic33 (18 Feb 2021)

matticus said:


> crocus ?
> 
> EDIT: no, that seems to get through OK ...


Think Irish money, and Vicksters clue.


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## midlife (18 Feb 2021)

Some areas around my way appear to have rising infection rates. Copeland and South Lakeland I think. No info as to why though.


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## Ajax Bay (18 Feb 2021)

Prof Mark Woolhouse, of the University of Edinburgh, epidemiologist on the SPI-M giving evidence to the HoC Science and Technology select committee,
* no evidence of virus outbreaks ever happening outside (eg summer Dorset beaches)
* clear that most Covid transmission was happening indoors.
* Government had been too slow in the past to reopen schools and allow outdoor activities as
* clear that neither was responsible for significantly raising the 'R' number.
* evidence going back to spring that the virus is not transmitted well outdoors
* "There's never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach ever, anywhere in the world, to the best of my knowledge. We do have to understand where the risks are and aren't so that we can do as much as possible safely without overcompensating."
* mass gatherings such as concerts and football matches were still a danger because they caused "pinch points" when people travelled and queued for refreshments: being indoors was by far the biggest risk.
* "We do now have a very good understanding backed up by a lot of science on when and where this virus transmits," he added. "It transmits best when *adults* are gathered in a *confined space, unventilated in close proximity* and particularly when there is *talking or vocalisations*.
"So from that very clear menu of risk you can identify all sorts of activities that might tick one of those boxes, and they will have risks. So outdoor activities, there is very little evidence of outdoor transmissions. With children, not at all.
"You can provide a safer environment by meeting or carrying out activities outdoors, no question."
"So from that very clear menu of risk you can identify all sorts of activities that might tick one of those boxes, and they will have risks. So outdoor activities, there is very little evidence of outdoor transmissions. With children, not at all.
"You can provide a safer environment by meeting or carrying out activities outdoors, no question."

Cycling = tick [Edit for the avoidance of misinterpretation: 'Tick' means: an encouraged and excellent exercise/activity (for all ages) minimising transmission: not a confined space, not unventilated, not in close proximity and not much talking.]


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## Ajax Bay (18 Feb 2021)

Schools reopening next month (assumed). Here's a new paper from Warwick University offering insights:
'_An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic_' 
Clip from final discussion:
"We observe that cases in schools increased throughout September and October 2020, mirroring the increases reported in the local community. The percentage of secondary school students with confirmed infections was found to be higher than in primary school students throughout this period. Notably, this was not the case with teachers - the percentage of teachers reporting infection appeared to be of a similar magnitude in both primary and secondary schools. This suggests that teachers are not exposed to increased risk in school environments where more children are infected, perhaps suggesting that the background incidence in the community plays a greater role in determining the risk to teachers. We can also infer that teachers are not at greater risk in primary schools than in secondary schools."
Final part of abstract:
"Finally, we observe a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in most regions, with weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools lag behind cases in the surrounding community. We conclude that there is not significant evidence to suggest that schools are playing a significant role in driving spread in the community and that careful monitoring may be required as schools re-open to determine the effect associated with open schools upon community incidence."


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## mjr (18 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> * "We do now have a very good understanding backed up by a lot of science on when and where this virus transmits," he added. "It transmits best when *adults* are gathered in a *confined space, unventilated in close proximity* and particularly when there is *talking or vocalisations*.
> "So from that very clear menu of risk you can identify all sorts of activities that might tick one of those boxes, and they will have risks. So outdoor activities, there is very little evidence of outdoor transmissions. With children, not at all.





> Cycling = tick.


Only the "adults" box is ticked, surely?


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## Ajax Bay (21 Feb 2021)

biggs682 said:


> No cycling involved but surely if Charles HRH can drive to London to see his father in Hospital so can others visit there parents and grand parents, just like Cummings and Boris's trip to Scotland recently rules do not apply


@vickster has shared the travel exemption link: for anyone whose elderly (or other) relatives are seriously ill.

I applaud the Prime Minister getting out and visiting all parts of the United Kingdom (and of course the rulz apply). It would be an abrogation of leadership to hole up in Westminster with only the odd cycle ride to keep sane.

I think the inability of people to visit and 'be present with' their declining close relatives who have C19 or who are in a care home 'lock-in' is a catastrophe for both the ailing suffering individual and their wife/husband/sons/daughters (say). I applaud HRH for visiting (it would be an epic failure not to, imo) and just hope that DoE gets well enough to return 'home' (Windsor at the moment).

I similarly hope every person who for myriad reasons needs to be treated in hospital (inpatient) gets visitors if allowed and subsequently makes it home. Remember there are over 18k (@ 18 Feb) in there just for C19. And there are (roughly) 100 thousand patients in hospital (beds) for other things.


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## marinyork (21 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I similarly hope every person who for myriad reasons needs to be treated in hospital (inpatient) gets visitors if allowed and subsequently makes it home. Remember there are over 18k (@ 18 Feb) in there just for C19. And there are (roughly) 100 thousand patients in hospital (beds) for other things.



It's a bit theoretical. One of my parents was in hospital three times this year as an inpatient. Theoretically you're allowed to visit if you go on the vague blurb with restrictions, two of the times there were no visitors allowed in that area. The third time visitors were allowed but the hospital was trying to get her out as quickly as possible, a bit chaotic and it was heavily discouraged with communication she was leaving - which is what everyone wanted.

And when one of my parents was in hospital last year at the height of peak 1 with what turned out to not be covid there were no visitors, no comms and scary. You wonder whether you'll ever speak to them again or see them again.

Fortunately in late Feb 2021 the situation is improving as so many have been vaccinated. The covid hospital cases are still very high, but it's a slightly less mad world going forward in time. When the hospital numbers go down to a few thousand with covid inside and case rates locally go down to maybe 30 or 40 per 100,000 it's going to be easier.


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## Ajax Bay (21 Feb 2021)

marinyork said:


> You wonder whether you'll ever speak to them again or see them again.


This will scar many of those experiencing 'not being able to say "goodbye"' for a long time. No doubt it could have been handled better, but the risk/reward was, and maybe still is, very difficult to nail down. The number in hospital has gone down ~5k in the last reported week (to >18k on 18 Feb. Three weeks to a month to get down to 'a few thousand' perhaps?


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## marinyork (21 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> This will scar many of those experiencing 'not being able to say "goodbye"' for a long time. No doubt it could have been handled better, but the risk/reward was, and maybe still is, very difficult to nail down. The number in hospital has gone down ~5k in the last reported week (to >18k on 18 Feb. Three weeks to a month to get down to 'a few thousand' perhaps?



The hospital figures, as may be commented on next time Vallance, Stevens or Witty turn up to a press conference are very healthy trends but a lot of variation from region to region and trust to trust. The profiles of infection rates in those areas are also very different. The first wave had a very long tail on hospitalisations but more recent data suggests it's plunging down faster and will level off much slower than the first wave and there might be an opinion on vaccines tomorrow. Where Israel is at the next 3-4 weeks is approaching and interesting place. We might get a bit more of an idea of what's ahead, specifically.

A lot of things were got wrong in the first wave, characterised as no to everything by some, some have been rectified. 

Slower process of goodbyes but when the care homes reopen I think people will notice decline in many and wonder. There'll be a lot of people on this board and I note that quite a few families appear to have had the higher and some of the lower generations vaccinated already to be able to make visits less worrisome. 

Pale rider has commented on the trips before, often there are employment or other factors preventing visits for the commoner. Covid has made some of the visits that do go on far, far more visible as in they stand out and the discussions about rule breaking and exemptions. They always went on before. The vaccines, shielding and other things have shone a rare light on the world of carers to and how fragile the whole thing is.


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## mjr (22 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> This time, many of the journalists asking about schools reopening have suggested giving criteria instead of a date, but Team Boris appears to have utterly failed to taken that opportunity!
> 
> "Government to set out lockdown easing plan in the week of 22 February" says the flipper below the news conference. Hopefully they will do better than the last two unlockings and not derestrict multiple things simultaneously (making it very difficult to estimate what had what effect), or even just too fast to reverse a relaxation that sets cases soaring again.


Data not dates, one step at a time and not too fast.

So according to https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/22/the-...-pass-for-the-covid-lockdown-to-end-14122240/ Johnson is about to fail on two of these, yet again giving out firm dates and derestricting multiple things simultaneously, such as sending primary and secondary schools back together. 

Will vaccination be enough to save us from being led by donkeys that just don't learn from past mistakes?


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## SpokeyDokey (22 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Data not dates, one step at a time and not too fast.
> 
> So according to https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/22/the-...-pass-for-the-covid-lockdown-to-end-14122240/ Johnson is about to fail on two of these, yet again giving out firm dates and derestricting multiple things simultaneously, *such as sending primary and secondary schools back together. *
> 
> Will vaccination be enough to save us from being led by donkeys that just don't learn from past mistakes?



To me that's one thing - I know they get split into two but really; it's young people going back to school.


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## marinyork (22 Feb 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> To me that's one thing - I know they get split into two but really; it's young people going back to school.



I'm fed up of politicians lumping them in together, 14, 15, 16 and 17 year olds are somewhat different when it comes to transmission for a 5 year old.

A poster on here keeps on going on about adults but the vaccination prog is not 'over' until it gets down to 14 or even younger. The virus could belt around the 14-49 year old population and then make it's way back to more vulnerable groups.


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## matticus (22 Feb 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> To me that's one thing - I know they get split into two but really; it's young people going back to school.


Perhaps the virus knows to stay away from Y6 and below? Hmm!?


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## mjr (22 Feb 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> To me that's one thing - I know they get split into two but really; it's young people going back to school.


It seems different, plus it was just one example. Outdoor non exercise recreation in pairs and care home visits are expected to resume along with schools. Mon 29 March is expected to see outdoor sixes, outdoor sports and hierarchical sports. Hospitality, other retail and HE is expected to be grouped in step 3. Pubs, grooming and UK holidays in step 4. This grouping of changes seems deeply farking stupid and will yet again mean we cannot tell as easily what measure changes the R by how much.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Data not dates, one step at a time and not too fast.
> So according to https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/22/the-...-pass-for-the-covid-lockdown-to-end-14122240/ Johnson is about to fail on two of these, yet again giving out firm dates and derestricting multiple things simultaneously, such as sending primary and secondary schools back together.
> Will vaccination be enough to save us from being led by donkeys that just don't learn from past mistakes?


From the Zahawi link - 4 tests:
1. Vaccine programme continuing at pace. We will offer the vaccine to the over-50s by the middle of April, and all of the adult population by the end of July.
2. Evidence that the vaccines are working and that we are seeing a reduction in infection, hospitalisation and of course, death.
3. Infection rates are not rising .
4. Variants, i.e. that we are managing to keep variants under control.

1. *Vaccine.* By 8 Mar all the JCVI Groups 5 and 6 will have received a jab (been offered), and a proportion of under 65s.
2. *Effectiveness.* We can expect more data on single dose effectiveness (see the vaccine thread for the promising PH Scotland report)
3. *Infections.* Infection rates are not rising. They are on track to be below 8000 reported per day by 8 Mar. The number of cases drives demand on NHS hospitals. Vaccinations of the 88% most vulnerable will, if effective after 21 days (8 Mar), mean drastically reduced hospitalisations. As @marinyork has suggested, the case/hospitalisation rate will have a long tail.
4. *Variants.* I understand that the number of the B.1.351 variant cases seems to have been contained. So it's reasonable to say that the UK is managing to keep variants under control.
Seems to me there are data. Seems to me that 'one step at a time' is roughly what's proposed and also that it's not too fast.
Would you care to list the separate 'things' (steps) that you suggest be relaxed 'one at a time'? How many are there? Do you think we could relax these, one at a time, on successive days? To set each step 21 days apart would see us into the autumn. Do you think that would be good for the country?

Were I involved in the management of a school, I would appreciate a "firm date (sic)" to work towards, with a couple of weeks notice. Which is exactly what I expect will be given this pm. 8 Mar has been noted for a month as the most likely date for schools resuming so 'they' will have had ample time to prepare (though probably with less than excellent direction on the detail). There have been plenty of papers showing that community transmission is far more of a driver than children in school.
So saying 'data not dates' doesn't really help real people planning vital education. Are your children (or of acquaintances/neighbours) not desperate to get back to school? For their future well-being?
My children's headmaster said (12 Feb):
"We will move to the next half-term, and the arrival of Spring, with a strong sense of optimism and confidence. Our students are in a strong position academically and we very much hope that we can begin to welcome them back to the school from 8th March. As soon as we are made aware of the Government plans for the wider opening of schools and details of the summer examinations, we will alert you to the next steps of our school recovery plan. As I am writing this letter the news that the ‘R’ Rate is falling has been announced which is wonderful."


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## marinyork (22 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> It seems different, plus it was just one example. Outdoor non exercise recreation in pairs and care home visits are expected to resume along with schools. Mon 29 March is expected to see outdoor sixes, outdoor sports and hierarchical sports. Hospitality, other retail and HE is expected to be grouped in step 3. Pubs, grooming and UK holidays in step 4. This grouping of changes seems deeply farking stupid and will yet again mean we cannot tell as easily what measure changes the R by how much.



Colleges and unis (sort of) are back on 8th March.

That's kind of scary. It may explain why they've staggered some of the other quite mild outdoor things well into the future.


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## mjr (22 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Seems to me there are data.


There's data for now. There is no data yet for 29 March, 12 April, 17 May and all the other dates announced so far.



> Seems to me that 'one step at a time' is roughly what's proposed and also that it's not too fast.


Are you reading different news to everyone else? Every report I've seen or heard says each date will see several changes happen together. This is yet another big gamble, and so far only one has worked, as against all the others which failed.

I don't think we can tell yet if it's too fast or not.



> Would you care to list the separate 'things' (steps) that you suggest be relaxed 'one at a time'? How many are there? Do you think we could relax these, one at a time, on successive days? To set each step 21 days apart would see us into the autumn. Do you think that would be good for the country?


There are loads of lists of the changes. I don't see a need to repost them all here. There are more than a dozen.

I think the changes would need to be set at least 7 days apart, probably 10, but the expert modellers would know better. Probably changes affecting groups that have almost nothing to do with each other could be relaxed simultaneously, but that would not mean unlocking primary and secondary schools together.

If it takes until the autumn, then it takes until the autumn. It won't be good for the country but this whole crisis isn't good for the country and it will be a damned sight better than if the government gambles and loses yet again.



> So saying 'data not dates' doesn't really help real people planning vital education. Are your children (or of acquaintances/neighbours) not desperate to get back to school? For their future well-being?


Dates can be announced once decided, of course. If school reopenings are confirmed today, then it's not huge notice, is it? What they should not do is announce a three month timetable of reopenings. We could be in the midst of a fourth wave by then (but I hope we are not).

Some children I know are keen to get back to school, but some won't even be going back when schools first reopen anyway, as their parents plan to continue to home-school them. I think it is unhelpful to pretend that all children need the same thing. It borders on ageist.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> some won't even be going back when schools first reopen anyway, as their parents plan to continue to home-school them. I think it is unhelpful to pretend that all children need the same thing. It borders on ageist.


 And those whose parents have decided to continue home-schooling: I wonder whether the children are as "keen"?


mjr said:


> There's data for now. There is no data yet for 29 March . . .


 [OT] Come on 'maths chap': singulars and plurals.


----------



## mjr (22 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> [OT] Come on 'maths chap': singulars and plurals.


Data is a mass noun now.


----------



## Rocky (22 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> And those whose parents have decided to continue home-schooling: I wonder whether the children are as "keen"?
> [OT] Come on 'maths chap': singulars and plurals.


He’s a maths chap but not a grammar chap....


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## matticus (22 Feb 2021)

There are dates, and there is data.

Can we move on to dessert now please?? IS there dessert :-/ ?


----------



## matticus (22 Feb 2021)

I think this describes a lot of people commenting on Gov decisions:

View: https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1363888754512035845


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## Ajax Bay (22 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Data is a mass noun now.


Very noticeable that Professor Chris Whitty was very plural at the 7 o'clock briefing. Maintained his credibility, not least among his fellow epidemiologists/scientists. Just imagine the ribbing he'd get in the common room if he used a singular conjugated for 'data'!


----------



## Rusty Nails (22 Feb 2021)

matticus said:


> There are dates, and there is data.
> 
> Can we move on to dessert now please?? IS there dessert :-/ ?



Just dessert?


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## mjr (22 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Very noticeable that Professor Chris Whitty was very plural at the 7 o'clock briefing.


I wasn't going to mention it, but it was noticeable Prof Whitty used both singular and plural for it during the show. I hope he doesn't suffer ribbing for it, but such unfamiliarity with modern English should probably be expected of fossils who lurk in common rooms!


----------



## Unkraut (22 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Data is a mass noun now.


I used to have to translate the ambiguous German _Daten_ as either _dates_, or _data_ with a singular verb if the context was computers (very much American usage) or plural verb if used in the older scientific sense, as strictly it is plural. Inconsistency is hardly surprising!


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## Ajax Bay (22 Feb 2021)

marinyork said:


> Colleges and unis (sort of) are back on 8th March. That's kind of scary.


Aiui, (to flesh out your "sort of") only those uni/college students whose subject requires significant practical activity are scheduled to return before Easter.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/university-students-practical-courses-set-182436108.html


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## IaninSheffield (23 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> I wasn't going to mention it, but it was noticeable Prof Whitty used both singular and plural for it during the show. I hope he doesn't suffer ribbing for it, but such unfamiliarity with modern English should probably be expected of fossils who lurk in common rooms!


Aren't common rooms closed at the moment? Well, at least until May 17, when the ribbing will even then only be from 5 colleagues at the most?


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## marinyork (23 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Aiui, (to flesh out your "sort of") only those uni/college students whose subject requires significant practical activity are scheduled to return before Easter.
> https://uk.news.yahoo.com/university-students-practical-courses-set-182436108.html



I'm in a practical department that has "specialist facilities" by the bucketload or rather by the relatively unventilated room load. I've seen teaching and assistant jobs put up in haste. We've been here before with a lot of variations in interpretations. Various other vocational courses have been there throughout, the difference is at least large portions of those have been vaccinated and have PPE, although some definitely need that to protect others, but when you look at risks there's not really enough there for the new lot. Various other specialist stuff has been there throughout, with massive variations  between unis/departments/labs.

The bit that's new to me, the rest isn't, is the twice weekly testing which has previously been hinted at going back about two months. If you're going to test secondary schools you might as well do colleges and unis. At the start of term students were offered two lateral flow tests days apart. The only issue I had with this was at my uni there was the small issue of having to wait 24 hours for the result, rendering it somewhat practically pointless. Waiting 24 hours for a result for a test that's supposed to take 30 mins in a place with loads of practical people down the road. Ummm yeah, great job guys.

Easter Holidays start early so it makes this transition easier, but also means there's less meaningful data for PHE and unis to assess what means what from this change.

Campuses had a lot of other things in the past like libraries shut, but coffee shops open! It will be a difficult few months transitioning back.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (23 Feb 2021)

That Hancock needs to get his reflexive liar syndrome sorted out. I don't think he can help it. No PPE shortages is his current rewriting of history!


----------



## mjr (24 Feb 2021)

French Health Minister Veran is appearing in Dunkirk this afternoon. I know not why. Nord is currently one of the areas with highest number in hospital but not as high a % as some, according to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/france-coronavirus-cases.html

PM Castex is giving a press conference tomorrow. The Alpes-Maritimes coast (around Nice) has gone into total lockdown, whereas case counts in parts of Brittany have fallen below 1 in 1'000, triggering relaxations like no masks required outdoors.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (24 Feb 2021)

What could possibly go wrong?



View: https://twitter.com/OfficialRandL/status/1364526936660336643


----------



## Oldhippy (24 Feb 2021)

Tad over optimistic in my view.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Feb 2021)

I think I may have got the Tories wrong all these years. Nice to see them so concerned about the education of our school kids


----------



## kingrollo (25 Feb 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Tad over optimistic in my view.


Boris has laid out a road map with dates - restaurants, pubs, etc are all working, rightly or wrongly towards those dates.


----------



## Oldhippy (25 Feb 2021)

Nice to know he has somehow convinced the virus to stop mutating and just go away. Judging by the tabloids it's all overs and just get out there and carry on as before! Nice to see they are being responsible. Not!


----------



## Ajax Bay (25 Feb 2021)

The virus has not stopped mutating: its doing so all the time. The bottom line is the likelihood of a variant of concern emerging, managing to spread, and the extent to which the current vaccines would continue to afford a good measure of protection.
Edit (VMT to the eagle-eyed one): Given this is the 'vaccine' thread, What actions do you think would minimise the chance of that @Oldhippy? How large a risk does that have to be before our community chooses to maintain severe restrictions on and continued damage to education, the economy, personal freedoms, being sociable with others, etc?


----------



## kingrollo (25 Feb 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Nice to know he has somehow convinced the virus to stop mutating and just go away. Judging by the tabloids it's all overs and just get out there and carry on as before! Nice to see they are being responsible. Not!



The tabloids I can excuse - its those fuelling the tabloids I have an issue with.


----------



## Salty seadog (25 Feb 2021)

Crikey, do they never learn? They may in fact stagger the reopening of schools after the really bad idea of all back on the same day.

It was looking like a much more cautious approach but now this. 

Unfooking believable. 


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-schools-nick-gibb?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


----------



## Oldhippy (25 Feb 2021)

Complex problems as the government wants to be seen as solving the issue by way of science, good, but also they have an eye on the next election circus. Relying on the public across the board to play ball is a lucky dip as so much is unenforceable. On top of that the virus is still new in virus terms and there may be surprises in the future. There is no correct one answer.


----------



## Ajax Bay (25 Feb 2021)

Isn't the Minister just saying that mask wearing in schools is not compulsory? There's no law to make it so. But schools will make it 'compulsory' and extend that to when sitting at desks in classrooms. As far as testing is concerned, that's going to happen too, and for practical reasons that will mean a staggered restart for most schools (except the smallest) getting a proportion of years back each day.
Several papers have shown that infection spread in schools is small compared to the transmission in the local community generally. So the various restrictions on protective measures in schools is small beer, imo, and will have minimal effect.


Salty seadog said:


> do they never learn?


They learn slower if they are deprived of a good face-to-face education.


----------



## matticus (25 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The virus has not stopped mutating: its doing so all the time. The bottom line is the likelihood of a variant of concern emerging, managing to spread, and the extent to which the current vaccines would continue to afford a good measure of protection.
> *Given this is the 'vaccine' thread*, what actions do you think would minimise the chance of that @Oldhippy? How large a risk does that have to be before our community chooses to maintain severe restrictions on and continued damage to education, the economy, personal freedoms, being sociable with others, etc?


Actually its not - but good point otherwise!


----------



## kingrollo (25 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Isn't the Minister just saying that mask wearing in schools is not compulsory? There's no law to make it so. But schools will make it 'compulsory' and extend that to when sitting at desks in classrooms. As far as testing is concerned, that's going to happen too, and for practical reasons that will mean a staggered restart for most schools (except the smallest) getting a proportion of years back each day.
> Several papers have shown that infection spread in schools is small compared to the transmission in the local community generally. So the various restrictions on protective measures in schools is small beer, imo, and will have minimal effect.
> 
> They learn slower if they are deprived of a good face-to-face education.



Yeah - we can't have the govt making rules can we ? - they might get it wrong ! - pass it on to the headteacher and the school epidemiologist


----------



## mjr (25 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> What actions do you think would minimise the chance of that @Oldhippy? How large a risk does that have to be before our community chooses to maintain severe restrictions on and continued damage to education, the economy, personal freedoms, being sociable with others, etc?


That's a false dilemma: the choice is not between severe restrictions and throwing the unvaccinated under-50s under the bus. We should maintain moderate restrictions on education, economy, personal freedoms and socialising in order to avoid the even worse damage to education, economy, personal freedoms and socialising from increased illness and death and possibly allowing breeding room for a new, even worse variant to arise.

The announcement of normality by June was reckless — and yes, I know that was footnoted as an earliest date, but that was never going to be reported as widely as the June date. Hopefully, as someone (@lane?) wrote, this hopefully will prove to be in the same category of bull shoot as Johnson's "absolute confidence" that covid would be gone from the UK before the end of summer 2020!


----------



## mjr (25 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> French Health Minister Veran is appearing in Dunkirk this afternoon. I know not why. Nord is currently one of the areas with highest number in hospital but not as high a % as some, according to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/france-coronavirus-cases.html


Dunkirk will be in total lockdown at weekends. The new case rate there has exceeded 1% per week (1'000/100k, or 142/100k per day averaged over a week, in UK reporting style), triple the average for Nord and 50% higher than the also-locked-down Nice. https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/san...que-d-autres-territoires-dans-le-rouge_152094

I suspect this doesn't affect the ferry port with services to/from the UK and Ireland, because that's in the neighbouring canton of Loon-Plage these days and international travel is pretty restricted right now anyway.



> PM Castex is giving a press conference tomorrow.


This evening, apparently.


----------



## Mo1959 (25 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Dunkirk will be in total lockdown at weekends. The new case rate there has exceeded 1% per week (1'000/100k, or 142/100k per day averaged over a week, in UK reporting style), triple the average for Nord and 50% higher than the also-locked-down Nice. https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/san...que-d-autres-territoires-dans-le-rouge_152094
> 
> I suspect this doesn't affect the ferry port with services to/from the UK and Ireland, because that's in the neighbouring canton of Loon-Plage these days and international travel is pretty restricted right now anyway.
> 
> ...


France vs Scotland rugby postponed as so many of the French team have Covid!


----------



## Salty seadog (25 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Isn't the Minister just saying that mask wearing in schools is not compulsory? There's no law to make it so. But schools will make it 'compulsory' and extend that to when sitting at desks in classrooms. As far as testing is concerned, that's going to happen too, and for practical reasons that will mean a staggered restart for most schools (except the smallest) getting a proportion of years back each day.
> Several papers have shown that infection spread in schools is small compared to the transmission in the local community generally. So the various restrictions on protective measures in schools is small beer, imo, and will have minimal effect.
> 
> They learn slower if they are deprived of a good face-to-face education.



Make it compulsory then. That way they don't leave themselves open to get more covid failure.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Feb 2021)

It obvious they are just going to let it ride - if anything Johnsons roadmap will be speeded up not slowed down.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Feb 2021)

Salty seadog said:


> Make it compulsory then. That way they don't leave themselves open to get more covid failure.



That would involve Fatty Johnson get off his middle class ass - and facing up to his neo Nazi back benchers .....it aint happening. !!!


----------



## Julia9054 (25 Feb 2021)

Passing the buck to headteachers so they can take all the flack from the “why are you muzzling my child” parents.


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## kingrollo (25 Feb 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> Passing the buck to headteachers so they can take all the flack from the “why are you muzzling my child” parents.



"Freedom"


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## marinyork (25 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Several papers have shown that infection spread in schools is small compared to the transmission in the local community generally. So the various restrictions on protective measures in schools is small beer, imo, and will have minimal effect.
> 
> They learn slower if they are deprived of a good face-to-face education.



The transmission is low in nurseries and primary schools and fairly low in secondary schools. With variations. As we can't vaccinate the vast majority under 16 there is a trade off: schools back, other stuff opens slowly. Things have to be taken very carefully as there is not much that can be done until school children are vaccinated. It's not a great situation.

We are trying to knock out all societal transmission routes by 80-95%. So even small becomes significant and as we go towards summer, small matters.

As the JCVI are likely not going to concentrate ontransmission routes in occupations as was reiterated again yesterday, just age drills, things are difficult.


----------



## matticus (25 Feb 2021)

marinyork said:


> The transmission is low in nurseries and primary schools and fairly low in secondary schools. With variations. As we can't vaccinate the vast majority under 16 there is a trade off: schools back, other stuff opens slowly. Things have to be taken very carefully as there is not much that can be done until school children are vaccinated. It's not a great situation.
> 
> We are trying to knock out all societal transmission routes by 80-95%. So even small becomes significant and as we go towards summer, small matters.
> 
> As the JCVI are likely not going to concentrate ontransmission routes in occupations as was reiterated again yesterday, just age drills, things are difficult.


Summary: it is what it is.


----------



## marinyork (25 Feb 2021)

matticus said:


> Summary: it is what it is.



Not really and there's no reason to be silly about it.

The discussions on this forum evolve around the people who are only bothered about deaths as a metric and those who are over 50 and don't care.

These rather basic points have to be made again and again because people just keep on shouting deaths will come down and I'm all right Jack. Well yes, no one disagrees on that, it's all other stuff some people refuse to even acknowledge.


----------



## classic33 (25 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Dunkirk will be in total lockdown at weekends. The new case rate there has exceeded 1% per week (1'000/100k, or 142/100k per day averaged over a week, in UK reporting style), triple the average for Nord and 50% higher than the also-locked-down Nice. https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/san...que-d-autres-territoires-dans-le-rouge_152094
> 
> *I suspect this doesn't affect the ferry port with services to/from the UK and Ireland, because that's in the neighbouring canton of Loon-Plage these days and international travel is pretty restricted right now anyway.*
> 
> ...


Commercial traffic and essential travel only. You're also required to provide a negative test result, from within the last 72 hours.


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## Oldhippy (25 Feb 2021)

I am over 50 and I care very much.


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## matticus (25 Feb 2021)

marinyork said:


> The discussions on this forum evolve around the people who [...] those who are over 50 and don't care.


I see no link between that statement, my post, and the post I quoted.
There was nothing wrong with your comments, I just didn't see any point to them. No offence meant


----------



## johnblack (25 Feb 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> Passing the buck to headteachers so they can take all the flack from the “why are you muzzling my child” parents.


When the Government make centralised rules to education and the NHS they are criticised for not letting the people on the ground decide what is best, local rules made locally, when they leave the decision up to the schools, they are criticised.


----------



## matticus (25 Feb 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> I am over 50 and I care very much.


Even if I tell you that you don't? How can you be sure??

EDIT: Oldhippy, several members have declared that others here "don't care", presumably due to their finely tuned internet telepathy skills.


----------



## Oldhippy (25 Feb 2021)

?


----------



## kingrollo (25 Feb 2021)

johnblack said:


> When the Government make centralised rules to education and the NHS they are criticised for not letting the people on the ground decide what is best, local rules made locally, when they leave the decision up to the schools, they are criticised.



When the 2nd wave has killed 80k people, and central gov't has access to epidemiologists, top Scientists - it seems absurd to hand key decisions on unprotected members of society to head teachers.


----------



## matticus (25 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> When the 2nd wave has killed 80k people, and central gov't has access to epidemiologists, top Scientists - it seems absurd to hand key decisions on unprotected members of society to head teachers.


This is a claggy discussion, but in reality head teachers make hundreds of health/safety decisions about their wards every year.
(guided by government departments). People in charge of workplaces do the same thing. It's an established system that has slashed workplace deaths* injuries over the past few decades (dunno about schools, sorry).


*I nearly forgot: if I mention deaths, someone will say that's all I care about.


----------



## Rocky (25 Feb 2021)

matticus said:


> This is a claggy discussion, but in reality head teachers make hundreds of health/safety decisions about their wards every year.
> (guided by government departments). People in charge of workplaces do the same thing. It's an established system that has slashed workplace deaths* injuries over the past few decades (dunno about schools, sorry).
> 
> 
> *I nearly forgot: if I mention deaths, someone will say that's all I care about.


For what it's worth, I've spoken about this with my niece's husband who is the head of an inner city comp. He is crying out for these decisions to be made centrally - he is fed up with getting the blame from a small group of parents when they don't agree with a particular decision. He has so many things on his plate at the moment, that this may be the straw that breaks his particular camel's back.


----------



## marinyork (25 Feb 2021)

matticus said:


> This is a claggy discussion, but in reality head teachers make hundreds of health/safety decisions about their wards every year.
> (guided by government departments). People in charge of workplaces do the same thing. It's an established system that has slashed workplace deaths* injuries over the past few decades (dunno about schools, sorry).
> 
> 
> *I nearly forgot: if I mention deaths, someone will say that's all I care about.



The HSE did thousands of inspections and no prohibition orders. Whereas councils and the police have taken action against those not suplosed to be open. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...workplaces-that-are-putting-employees-at-risk

Some workplaces have done a good job, others not. There are no consequences if they do a bad job. It's moral hazard.

When I wrote a risk assessment I got hold of templates and consultation with others. I was really shocked that many just had very airy fairy death and spread of covid and nothing about hospitalisations and focussed on hand hygiene. Some were done by people on very sumptuous salaries.


----------



## marinyork (25 Feb 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> I am over 50 and I care very much.



Many over 50s care about it. I see it on phone ins and on the news. One of my former colleagues was saying on the phone they're fed up for their 17 year old granddaughter whose work hopes have gone up in smoke and can't have a life (by this she means friends and dating). We had quite a funny discussion about what it might be like for those age groups, but there were some very serious bits.

But I also see a lot where the vaccines have clearly warped peoples' perceptions and people saying things should open up because they've had/having a jab. If this forum was full of people in their teens, 20s and 30s there'd be a very different side of the pandemic talked about with some wanting things opened up, the economic side talked about far more, but also a lot others seriously unhappy about being sacrificial lambs so someone who is 50 can enjoy a pint indoors with 5 mates, or later even more, whilst someone works for minimum wage and is hospitalised or gets long covid. If there were more women on the forum they'd probably be quite a different flavour to the discussions.

It's not even the first time this has happened, a broadly similar thing happened during swine flu where those over 41 (which coincides with almost the same age group of over 50s) just got 'lucky' because they had cross-immunity whilst loads of younger people got quite a nasty illness, hospitalised or died. Except covid-19 is a lot nastier than swine flu. Why would you not expect it to happen again? I expect it to. This time there's no tamiflu (which it turns out didn't work very well anyway but what people believe at the time is important)!

Ultimately whatever age anyone is it is in everyone's interests to be as careful as possible to get cases down super low, backward tracing, vaccinations, vaccinating our neighbours such as the Republic of Ireland and helping out the third world. Otherwise we get a 3rd wave that's worse than it needs to be and those over 50s who've been vaccinated get things taken away again or stuff getting kicked into the long grass. 

Many areas seem to be having a slow down, where the fall in cases has become very gradual or even going up again. A lot of the points I've made are based on the B117 cases around Christmas and how explosive this new variant is and in Israel where the cases are very high. The mutations happening anyway in this country independently of South Africa/Brazil/Califirnia/many places on earth undetected too.


----------



## fossyant (25 Feb 2021)

Oof

Not going well over the water.

Asked whether she would volunteer to be administered with the vaccine, Merkel added: “I am 66 years old and I do not belong to the recommended group for AstraZeneca.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...xford-covid-jabs-delivered-to-eu-not-yet-used


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## Oldhippy (25 Feb 2021)

Totally agree Marin.


----------



## matticus (25 Feb 2021)

Rocky said:


> For what it's worth, I've spoken about this with my niece's husband who is the head of an inner city comp. He is crying out for these decisions to be made centrally - he is fed up with getting the blame from a small group of parents when they don't agree with a particular decision. He has so many things on his plate at the moment, that this may be the straw that breaks his particular camel's back.


I can well believe that. _It may well be_ that due to extreme public distress, it would be better to make central decisions on this exceptional situation.

But:


johnblack said:


> When the Government make centralised rules to education and the NHS they are criticised for not letting the people on the ground decide what is best, local rules made locally, when they leave the decision up to the schools, they are criticised.


... and* I* was making the point that there is good historical precedent for localised policy-setting. End of!


----------



## PK99 (25 Feb 2021)

johnblack said:


> When the Government make centralised rules to education and the NHS they are criticised for not letting the people on the ground decide what is best, local rules made locally, when they leave the decision up to the schools, they are criticised.



I've commented previously that the public in general, and sometimes individuals, are oxymoronic in their attitudes towards, demands on, and criticism of Government.

It's a bit like "Damned if they do. Damned if they don't"

You highlight a perfect example of this:
"On the one hand, some want A. On the other hand, some want B.", where A and B are incompatible or mutually exclusive.


----------



## matticus (25 Feb 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> ?


EDIT: Oldhippy, several members have declared that others here "don't care", presumably due to their finely tuned internet telepathy skills.


----------



## marinyork (25 Feb 2021)

matticus said:


> ... and* I* was making the point that there is good historical precedent for localised policy-setting. End of!



I see covid as quite different to decades of general workplace stuff that's evolved. If we had an Ebola outbreak or a MERS outbreak would you let a headteacher deal with it? I frigging well wouldn't and especially not looking at some of the risk assessments out there and gigantic variations in efforts and facilities. 

Safeguarding, digital challenges and although I'm a fan of mass testing, the mass testing plans are quite a lot to deal with already. 

I have acquaintances who are admin staff, they are very unhappy about headteachers' say goes, partly because they are the ones that have to ring up PHE and then stuck between these two competing forces. I also know someone who volunteers in schools, the headteachers won't give a monkeys about volunteers in some cases, they are expendable, they aren't even their staff! It's all get in as many volunteers as possible to dig us out of a hole.


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## matticus (25 Feb 2021)

marinyork said:


> I see covid as quite different to decades of general workplace stuff that's evolved. If we had an Ebola outbreak or ...


I refer you to the *first *line of my post.


----------



## marinyork (25 Feb 2021)

matticus said:


> I refer you to the *first *line of my post.



I have been a trade union rep on minimum wage kicking arse to arrogant knobs on 100k a year. That besides there is too much going on all at once.

The idea of health and safety is great but even today doesn't stack up. See the HSE 0 prohibition notices.


----------



## kingrollo (25 Feb 2021)

matticus said:


> This is a claggy discussion, but in reality head teachers make hundreds of health/safety decisions about their wards every year.
> (guided by government departments). People in charge of workplaces do the same thing. It's an established system that has slashed workplace deaths* injuries over the past few decades (dunno about schools, sorry).
> 
> 
> *I nearly forgot: if I mention deaths, someone will say that's all I care about.



Yes they make decisions about pupils in their care. Covid has massive implications beyond that - as such should be made by central govt.


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## matticus (25 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Yes they make decisions about pupils in their care. Covid has massive implications beyond that - as such should be made by central govt.


And their staff.


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## Ajax Bay (25 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Covid has massive implications beyond that - as such [decisions] should be made by central govt.


Here's the direction by 'central government'.
https://assets.publishing.service.g.../Schools_coronavirus_operational_guidance.pdf
"This guidance explains the actions school leaders should take to minimise the risk of transmission of coronavirus (COVID-19) in their school. This includes public health advice, endorsed by Public Health England (PHE).
"We have worked closely with the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and PHE to develop this guidance. Based on the recent ONS data, the risks to education staff are similar to those for most other occupations.
"Implementing the system of controls, creates a safer environment for pupils and staff where the risk of transmission of infection is substantially reduced. The way to control this virus is the same, even with the current new variants. We are further strengthening the measures, to provide more reassurance and to help decrease disruption the virus causes to education."


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## marinyork (25 Feb 2021)

Are things slowing down or flatlining in poorer urban areas?
Birmingham:-






Leeds:-





Sheffield:-


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## Ajax Bay (25 Feb 2021)

Will the continued higher than average level of infections in cities mean that a higher than average proportion of the population is seropositive and will self-limit the continued spread of the virus? By 8 Mar the virus is going to be 'squeezed' between the vaccinated over 65s (22M) and the previously infected section of the under 65s qv.
Estimate for the number of UK residents who have knowingly or not had C19 in the past is 16M (plus or minus 2M): about a quarter of the population. Under 65s are 81% of the population so we might assume 13M of them have some or sufficient antibodies. This will bear down on Rt (and of course I appreciate it's 'not as simple as that').


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## marinyork (25 Feb 2021)

I wouldn't personally want to live in Manaus.


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## mjr (25 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Will the continued higher than average level of infections in cities mean that a higher than average proportion of the population is seropositive and will self-limit the continued spread of the virus?


Probably not, will it?

Is this belief another contributor to some people wanting to let the virus rip through the under 50s? Revival of the "herd immunity" mistake?


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## marinyork (25 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Probably not, will it?
> 
> Is this belief another contributor to some people wanting to let the virus rip through the under 50s? Revival of the "herd immunity" mistake?



An area I frequent in this city has 97% of people unvaccinated.

Precisely what do people think would happen if controls were lifted right now? That's right, there would be a massive fecking outbreak if it gets a hold.

On the other thread the daily mail vaccination figures may suggest why some areas the virus is much lower (not low enough sadly) with affluence, rurality and high percentages vaccinated (40 or 50%).


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## kingrollo (25 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Will the continued higher than average level of infections in cities mean that a higher than average proportion of the population is seropositive and will self-limit the continued spread of the virus? By 8 Mar the virus is going to be 'squeezed' between the vaccinated over 65s (22M) and the previously infected section of the under 65s qv.
> Estimate for the number of UK residents who have knowingly or not had C19 in the past is 16M (plus or minus 2M): about a quarter of the population. Under 65s are 81% of the population so we might assume 13M of them have some or sufficient antibodies. This will bear down on Rt (and of course I appreciate it's 'not as simple as that').



Lol - you couldn't make this shite up could you ! Unbelievable !


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## Oldhippy (25 Feb 2021)

Now the NHS has lowered the risk on the pretty coloured board there is a huge element of the public and the press who will take it to mean full speed ahead sadly.


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## classic33 (25 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Probably not, will it?
> 
> Is this belief another contributor to some people wanting to let the virus rip through the under 50s? Revival of the "herd immunity" mistake?


And there's those who can't actually be vaccinated, due to the risk to themselves.


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## mjr (25 Feb 2021)

The latest government advert has "every foggy lens" helping to defeat covid. Does that mean my use of a "No Fog" spray is giving succour to covid somehow, or is it just another terrible ad campaign making fun of glasses-wearers instead of containing some useful public information instead for the few who haven't yet found an anti-fogging solution?


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## Ajax Bay (25 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Lol - you couldn't make this shite up could you ! Unbelievable !


How about exposing the preposterous or false assumptions in what I say or pointing out my poor arithmetic, rather than just 'lolling' and 'shite'? Add value.


mjr said:


> Is this belief another contributor to some people wanting to let the virus rip through the under 50s? Revival of the "herd immunity" mistake?


Not quite sure what 'belief' you are referring to, but pretty sure the answer is 'no'.
I have nowhere suggested that anyone "wants to let the virus rip through the [relatively invulnerable] under 50s". Which "some people" had you in mind, @mjr? The healthy under 50s will start being vaccinated (by my maths) steadily but quite slowly from late April after the schools go back for the summer term.
In a city, say, the number of people who, because they possess antibodies, can thus resist infection is halved (on the maths I've offered). If there are only half the numbers around that are liable to infection by transmission from someone who has C19 and is shedding viral load, with or without symptoms, then _ceteris paribus_ the number infected will be half, on average. Is that wrong, and if so, to what extent?
If, say, 80% of people are 'protected' (vaccination or previous infection (acknowledging assumptions being made)) will that not reduce Rt even further? At some stage we surely hope to reach 'herd immunity': this summer, assuming the vaccination programme continues with its current success and the vaccines continue to be effective against any new variants. Will this be a "Revival of the "herd immunity" mistake"?


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## marinyork (25 Feb 2021)

New covid death map published by the ONS

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...athsinvolvingcovid19interactivemap/2020-06-12


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## Craig the cyclist (26 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> Probably not, will it?
> 
> Is this belief another contributor to some people wanting to let the virus rip through the under 50s? Revival of the "herd immunity" mistake?



Herd immunity is not a mistake, it's what will save the day. When enough people have immunity the r rate will drop and the virus will be kept at bay. Why are you so blinkered?

No-one wants the virus to 'rip through' the under 50s, the aim is for everyone to develop immunity, some through exposure to the virus, some through vaccination, some through a freak of genetics may already be immune. Stop using histrionic language and educate yourself.


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## Craig the cyclist (26 Feb 2021)

marinyork said:


> An area I frequent in this city has 97% of people unvaccinated.
> 
> Precisely what do people think would happen if controls were lifted right now? That's right, there would be a massive fecking outbreak if it gets a hold.
> 
> On the other thread the daily mail vaccination figures may suggest why some areas the virus is much lower (not low enough sadly) with affluence, rurality and high percentages vaccinated (40 or 50%).



Why? Is it a predominantly student area and people are too young to have been reached yet, is it a heavy BAME community, is there something else going on?

There always needs to be more behind a statement like that.


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## marinyork (26 Feb 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Why? Is it a predominantly student area and people are too young to have been reached yet, is it a heavy BAME community, is there something else going on?
> 
> There always needs to be more behind a statement like that.



You need to read around a bit. It's been confirmed that some areas with high percentages vaccinated are also a month ahead, as well as the very obvious factors.


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## marinyork (26 Feb 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Herd immunity is not a mistake, it's what will save the day. When enough people have immunity the r rate will drop and the virus will be kept at bay. Why are you so blinkered?



It's a mistake calling it blinkered. You sound like a person that thinks herd immunity will appear at around 60 or 70%. Me and mjr and others are people that worry that herd immunity may not appear till around 90% or may even be impossible. Especially as the virus spreads quite a lot in 14 and 15 year olds who in general cannot be vaccinated for a long time.

If you're so confident you should merely be reading a lot of stuff coming out on Israel, because the 60% for herd immunity test is coming up in March. And what will happen? You'll get your evidence very soon if that's the case and if it's not you'll have to eat humble pie and start to worry like the rest of us (well not like the rest of us as you've probably already had your vaccine but people know what I mean).


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## Ajax Bay (26 Feb 2021)

marinyork said:


> Hospitalisation. Long covid. Your repeated attempts to divert the issue and constantly go on about deaths will not work. . . . . . . . . .
> New covid death map published by the ONS.


You pointed out Long Covid as risk about which the parent of a teenager should be concerned. Did I get that right?
The ONS offers this insight on post-Covid symptoms/illness:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nceoflongcovidsymptomsandcovid19complications
Of the 8000+ surveyed, having had C19, 21% still had symptoms* after 5 weeks and half of those (ie 10% of the total) still had some after 12 weeks. The average (median) length of time for symptoms to persist was 40 days.
*'Symptom' defined as any occurrence of the following symptoms: fatigue, cough, headache, loss of taste, loss of smell, myalgia, sore throat, fever, shortness of breath, nausea/vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain.
The data do not give any age stratification, I'm afraid.
C19's infection fatality rate (IFR) reduces dramatically with age. If you're 15-19 the chance of dying from C19 is <5 in a million (England, as at mid Feb) and 20 in a million if they catch it (with or without symptoms). I couldn't find data on admissions to hospital by age.
Both the studies linked below look at post-Covid symptoms (PCS) in populations discharged from hospital (some from ICUs) aged (roughly) 50-80.
The Lancet published a study on "post-Covid" (NB ex-Wuhan hospitalised 47-65 year olds), showing some people who survive the virus are left with long-term side effects. Here's another UK study - 47k people discharged from hospital (average age 65). The study observed: "Compared with the general population, individuals in hospital with COVD-19 were more likely to be aged ≥ 50 years, male, living in a deprived area, a former smoker, and overweight or obese. Individuals with COVID-19 were also more likely to be comorbid than the general population, with a higher prevalence of prior hospitalisation and all measured pre-existing conditions (most notably hypertension, major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), respiratory disease and diabetes)."
I suggest that the main and laudable reason youth want to avoid catching this virus is that they don't want to transmit it to older people, for instance older relatives with whom they share a household.


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## Craig the cyclist (26 Feb 2021)

marinyork said:


> You need to read around a bit. It's been confirmed that some areas with high percentages vaccinated are also a month ahead, as well as the very obvious factors.



I was only asking if there is an obvious reason for a 3% vaccination rate in that particular area? If there is then what is it, and is 3% because of the lack of vulnerable people and a very low % of older or at risk groups.

I don't need to read around a bit at this point, I guess I need to know what areas of which city you are talking about, then the reading, if I was to do any would be relevant! No point in me looking up uptake in Kemptown in Brighton if you are talking about Bootle on Merseyside is there? So where are you talking about, and where did you get the 3% figure from?


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## Craig the cyclist (26 Feb 2021)

marinyork said:


> It's a mistake calling it blinkered. You sound like a person that thinks herd immunity will appear at around 60 or 70%. Me and mjr and others are people that worry that herd immunity may not appear till around 90% or may even be impossible. Especially as the virus spreads quite a lot in 14 and 15 year olds who in general cannot be vaccinated for a long time.
> 
> If you're so confident you should merely be reading a lot of stuff coming out on Israel, because the 60% for herd immunity test is coming up in March. And what will happen? You'll get your evidence very soon if that's the case and if it's not you'll have to eat humble pie and start to worry like the rest of us (well not like the rest of us as you've probably already had your vaccine but people know what I mean).



From what I wrote, how have you decided that I am 60-70%er? That is genuinely intriguing. My point is that herd immunity is the thing that will win the day, so for mjr to say it is a "mistake" is simply wrong. Whatever the number turns out to be, and it varies quite significantly from disease to disease, is largely irrelevant, what is relevant is that herd immunity is not a 'mistake', it is actually the solution.

I can't help but think you are picking an argument with the wrong person here, we agree. I only challenged your 3% figure to see where you were talking about! mjr's response is the one you should be picking up on, not mine.


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## marinyork (26 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> You pointed out Long Covid as risk about which the parent of a teenager should be concerned. Did I get that right?
> 
> I suggest that the main and laudable reason youth want to avoid catching this virus is that they don't want to transmit it to older people, for instance older relatives with whom they share a household.



Everyone should be bothered about long covid. Everyone should be bothered about hospitalisations. An 18-29 year old is 630x less likely to die than an 85 year old, but they aren't 630x less likely to be hospitalised or get long covid. Hospitalisation and long covid and those two knock-on effects on others are things that people below 50 should be worried about. You say all this but there's someone else on the forum who's young son has got long covid. I know one person who has long covid. I'm not really amused in the slightest by what you say because I've had a post-viral syndrome myself.

The thing about those of us younger that care for those who are CEVs, or those in their 70s or 80s or 90s is that if those people get knocked out, hospitalised or long covid then the state picks up the pieces and it comes at an enormous cost. My mother's getting puzzled calls from physio over-run trying to work out why she's asking for physio, well if I get knocked out between now and June when I get my vaccine, they'll find out and she'll be straight in a nursing home. There are millions in this situation and even the last year if you look at the extra work done outside the state it's large and substantial and hidden. There's no firewall. Things open up in society and what level of protection is there?

There are a few developments that may stop some of the arguments. The pfizer vaccine's storage conditions may be about to change and with a more plentiful supply of it anything that makes things easier, including on 2nd jabs is very welcome. The over 50s is nearly finished in the county which I think mjr lives in, so he may actually get his vaccine in March or early April. So people can then stop arguing about what thrown under the bus means, but there are millions more of us. And the JCVI have announced their next groups 10, 11 and 12 and I'm group 11. The other vaccines and more supply will come on stream, so we can all argue about whether the NHS does 7 million jabs a week.


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## Ajax Bay (26 Feb 2021)

marinyork said:


> It's a mistake calling it blinkered. You sound like a person that thinks herd immunity will appear at around 60 or 70%. Me and @mjr and others are people that worry that herd immunity may not appear till around 90% or may even be impossible. Especially as the virus spreads quite a lot in 14 and 15 year olds who in general cannot be vaccinated for a long time.
> . . . Israel, . . . the 60% for herd immunity test is coming up in March. And what will happen? You'll get your evidence very soon if that's the case and if it's not you'll have to eat humble pie and start to worry like the rest of us. . .


It's quite possible with whatever variant is dominant, herd immunity may be impossible.
Telepathetically reckoning that @Craig the cyclist thinks "that herd immunity will appear at around 60 or 70%". You're making it up, or making irrational inferences with strawman opportunities.
Who has suggested 60% as the level of population with antibodies (and therefore resistance to infection) as the 'herd immunity' measure for this disease? By all means check my previous posts.
"the virus spreads quite a lot in 14 and 15 year olds" Does it? 'Quite a lot': please quantify. Compared to 20-39s? Edit: See this JAMA paper (44% less likely to catch it).
By the time we get round to vaccinating 14 and 15 year olds the recently started 'teenage' vaccine efficacy study report will be in and secondary school age teenagers can be vaccinated in the first few weeks of the autumn term. Before the effort switches to booster jabs for the over 70s (and the rest in JCVI Gps 1-4) in October.
What is this 'humble pie' thing? Is that what people who "worry" eat for lunch? Speaking of which . . .


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## marinyork (26 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> By the time we get round to vaccinating 14 and 15 year olds the recently started 'teenage' vaccine efficacy study report will be in and secondary school age teenagers can be vaccinated in the first few weeks of the autumn term. Before the effort switches to booster jabs for the over 70s (and the rest in JCVI Gps 1-4) in October.
> What is this 'humble pie' thing? Is that what people who "worry" eat for lunch? Speaking of which . . .



I am aware that studies are underway, unlike you I even remember that we've talked about this several times before.

Autumn may well be too late, that's the point. Whilst ever sizeable transmission routes are open such as secondary schools, the rest of society has to be very careful.

You're probably miffed because you also think the same as craig, well as I said before you'll find out very soon if it's right. And I can add up the numbers. I personally wouldn't want to live in Manaus.


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## Ajax Bay (26 Feb 2021)

marinyork said:


> Everyone should be bothered about long covid. Everyone should be bothered about hospitalisations. An 18-29 year old is 630x less likely to die than an 85 year old, but they aren't 630x less likely to be hospitalised or get long covid. Hospitalisation and long covid and those two knock-on effects on others are things that people below 50 should be worried about. You say all this but there's someone else on the forum who's young son has got long covid. I know one person who has long covid. I'm not really amused in the slightest by what you say because I've had a post-viral syndrome myself.


Everyone should be bothered about long covid. _Bothered, yes._
Everyone should be bothered about hospitalisations. _Bothered, yes. I have looked back I can't find where I implied 'unbotheration' by either._
Hospitalisation and long covid and those two knock-on effects on others are things that people below 50 should be worried about. _Think those under 50 should, like their elders, behave to minimise their chances of catching C19, balanced against their responsibilities to others, in particular their families/households. They should not 'worry' about it, though._
You say all this but there's someone else on the forum who's young son has got long covid. _What is the 'all this' that you are railing against? I hope the young man gets better. Do you think post-Covid syndrome should not be mentioned? I only looked at it because you said 'what about long covid?'._
I know one person who has long covid. _I hope they get better and their symptoms improve_
I'm not really amused in the slightest by what you say because I've had a post-viral syndrome myself. _I'm not trying to amuse you and I hope your pvs is much reduced. My recommendation would be for you to go for a fun ride - I had an excellent one yesterday, in the Devon sunshine.
The '@Maggot' thing. I have zero idea what you are on about. Should I take this as a form of endearment?_


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## mjr (26 Feb 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Herd immunity is not a mistake, it's what will save the day. When enough people have immunity the r rate will drop and the virus will be kept at bay. Why are you so blinkered?


You flaming sophist! The herd immunity mistake was the plan proposed back last Feb/March that we don't try to flatten the curves long enough for a vaccine to be developed and deployed, but instead let cases infect as many people as fast as the NHS could cope with, so enough of the survivors develop antibodies that herd immunity appears.

I am not blinkered: herd immunity may be a route out of it, but there are many unknowns. The mistake of relying on herd immunity, however, is not one we do need to make. If it happens early then wonderful, but let's not assume.



> No-one wants the virus to 'rip through' the under 50s, [...]


So why do you think Johnson plans to lift all restrictions before they are vaccinated, then?


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## SpokeyDokey (26 Feb 2021)

*Mod note:*

Re 'Maggot'.

Please drop this, it's not helpful, it's OT and a thread ban is beckoning.

Thank you.


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## Ajax Bay (26 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> So why do you think Johnson plans to lift all restrictions before they are vaccinated, then?


It's good to have a plan, and share it. If the country had to wait to lift restrictions (various) till everyone had been offered a vaccine, we'd be into October. I cannot believe you advocate that approach but maybe that reveals my lack of imagi=nation. Having a conditional, stepped approach (varied from home nation to home nation) to removal of restrictions with month plus gaps between each substantive step means that the virus will not, apocalyptically, "rip through the under 50s" - there'll be much less of it about: by late Apr nearly 2/3rds of the population will have antibodies and therefore resistance to infection.
The UK's 4 tests for whether to reduce restrictions, "no earlier than" the dates quoted are:
1. Vaccine programme continuing at pace. "We will offer the vaccine to the over-50s by the middle of April, and all of the adult population by the end of July."
2. Evidence that the vaccines are working and that we are seeing a reduction in infection, hospitalisation and of course, death.
3. Infection rates are not rising.
4. Variants, i.e. that we are managing to keep variants under control.

1. *Vaccine.* By 8 Mar all the JCVI Groups 5 and 6 will have received a jab (been offered), and all over 50s by late April. The 40-49s (see new JCVI age-tiered recommendations) will start getting vaccinated in late April and on into May and June. July will allow another 12M doses (>11M first ones) - that assumes a pedestrian 400k per day - to complete the vaccination (first dose) of all adults.
2. *Effectiveness.* Data (Pfizer) on single dose effectiveness is promising and by 8 Mar there will be more; comfortably satisfying that 'test'.
3. *Infections/Hospitalisations.* Infection rates are not rising, and nationally they are going to be falling on 8 Mar. The number of cases drives demand on NHS hospitals but with the 88% most vulnerable vaccinated - effective after 21 days (8 Mar) - that should mean drastically reduced numbers with C19 in hospital, on which I've earlier shared a projection of them being below 5000 by the end of April (in 64 days time). Currently there are 15,485 in hospital and that figure has dropped by about 600 a day for the last 10 days.
4. *Variants.* I understand that the number of the B.1.351 variant cases seems to have been contained. So it's reasonable to say that the UK is managing to keep variants under control. Edit: Of course this may change: the point of having it as a 'test'.
HM Government (for England and much the same by the devolved administrations) "plans to lift all restrictions before [those under 50s] are vaccinated" because the country has to get going again, the cases are falling, hospitalisations and deaths are dropping fast and that drop is likely to continue, the vaccinations are rolling out, and the vaccines are (and are likely to remain) effective. The risk of dying from C19 for adults 20-49 in 2020 was 60 per million - less than for several other reasons for death in that age group.
Sorry for using 'deaths' but data on hospitalisations of 20-49s is not accessible. To compare, in 45-49 year old males in 2019, the rate of suicide was 255 per million.


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## marinyork (26 Feb 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> _Think those under 50 should, like their elders, behave to minimise their chances of catching C19, balanced against their responsibilities to others, in particular their families/households. They should not 'worry' about it, though._



I don't make the distinction other than how the JCVI and politicians have divided society. In terms of deaths it's really over 60s/70s and particularly over 80s. In terms of worrying about hospitalisation someone in their 20s/30s/40s has a lot in common with someone in their 50s.

I welcome the JCVI lists 10, 11 and 12 as it finally after about a year of waiting (there were hints and u turns), gives people some certainty in their lives. Even though several reactions were it sucks to be age X said to me by people in each of the three categories. It sucks even more to be 16 or 17 as we have a licenced Pfizer vaccine. The rationale has been given as speed, without some of the sillier stuff said 2-3 weeks ago by senior NHS bods and politicians.

A few posters have an issue with some of the step 3 and 4 stuff and think it won't happen on time. My problem is really step 2 and gaps, so steps 3 and 4 if left unchanged should really more be July/August than May/June. 



> _My recommendation would be for you to go for a fun ride - I had an excellent one yesterday, in the Devon sunshine._



It's city boundaries only, although how this week has unfolded it doesn't seem quite as far away 12th April, when I can get into Derbyshire.


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## kingrollo (26 Feb 2021)

So rates on the rise in some areas .

I guess, as promised, Boris will announce a slow down of his road map.


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## marinyork (26 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> So rates on the rise in some areas .
> 
> I guess, as promised, Boris will announce a slow down of his road map.



I've been in a plateau area for a while and wondered about how low can it go before a lot more people are vaccinated.






Unfortunately the number of areas with rises is quite a bit more now and includes rural areas, and rather puzzlingly enough parts of the south west which have generally vaccinated a lot more people. We shall have to see.


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## mjr (26 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I guess, as promised, Boris will announce a slow down of his road map.


As mentioned on Radio 4 earlier, what kind of nutter writes dates on roadmaps?


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## kingrollo (26 Feb 2021)

mjr said:


> As mentioned on Radio 4 earlier, what kind of nutter writes dates on roadmaps?


One who is terrified of his ultra right wing back benchers ....


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## Ajax Bay (26 Feb 2021)

Doesn't trust GPS, maybe?


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## deptfordmarmoset (26 Feb 2021)

Data not dates, is it? I can't wait for midsummers datum


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## marinyork (26 Feb 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Data not dates, is it? I can't wait for midsummers datum




View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wBTdfAkqGU


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## DCLane (26 Feb 2021)

Big rise in cases around me this week - I'm wondering if half-term had anything to do with it?  

My 20yo is back in university workshops from 8th March - he needs to be as he's 3rd year on an engineering degree and they'll manage distance.

However my 16yo is due back at school from the 11th. He doesn't want to go, instead studying from home. And he is properly studying for his 4 A-levels plus doing a university access course at the same time.


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## matticus (27 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> So rates on the rise in some areas .
> 
> I guess, as promised, Boris will announce a slow down of his road map.


What a peculiar thing to be smiling about.


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## mjr (27 Feb 2021)

DCLane said:


> Big rise in cases around me this week - I'm wondering if half-term had anything to do with it?


Probably. There was a big rise in fines for lockdown-busting handed out at the local seaside resort. https://www.lynnnews.co.uk/news/police-fine-39-for-weekend-lockdown-breaches-in-hunstanton-9158286/


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## SpokeyDokey (27 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> So rates on the rise in some areas .
> 
> I guess, as promised, Boris will announce a slow down of his road map.



I think there are bound to be geographic fluctuations for some time yet.

AFAIK the areas where rates are rising are still subject to the increased testing interventions that were brought into play some weeks ago.

Re roadmap, I would think that case rate rises would have to be very rapid and widespread for it to be heavily amended.

We've already been told that the pandemic will continue for some time and that a UK-wide zero infection rate is not possible - may as well get used to these geographic variations; they are going to happen come what may,


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## Ajax Bay (27 Feb 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I guess, as promised, Boris will announce a slow down of his road map.





marinyork said:


> A few posters have an issue with some of the step 3 and 4 stuff and think it won't happen on time. My problem is really step 2 and gaps, so steps 3 and 4 if left unchanged should really more be July/August than May/June.





SpokeyDokey said:


> Re roadmap, I would think that case rate rises would have to be very rapid and widespread for it to be heavily amended.


Of the 4 tests in the 'Indicative timetable for relaxing Covid-19 NPI restrictions' it seems likely that the first two are pretty assured. And the last: increased risk if there's a new Variant of Concern in domestic circulation - is unpredictable - more likely in countries which have a continued high case rate and not done well with vaccinations (no names, but plenty of pack drill).
Which leaves: "Infection rates [cases reported per day] do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS."
I reckon infection rates will rise in April but by Easter numbers in hospital will be less than 8000 and still falling. The cohort who get infected, despite continued restrictions, will be the unvaccinated and they are far less likely (than over 70s) to get so ill they need hospital. So the likely increase in cases will not "risk a surge in hospitalisations" still less "put unsustainable pressure on the NHS".
Edit: I think, therefore, it is unlikely that these 4 tests will not be satisfied at the various 'not before' dates shared by the Prime Minister. But I also think that if the data say otherwise, hard decisions will need to be made.
One of the key papers which influenced Government's plans was (I surmise) this (26 Jan) one from Warwick University:
_Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: When can the UK relax about COVID-19?_
But the timescale of the UK (and devolved) Government(s) plan(s) for gradual removal of restrictions has been informed by values for key parameters which are much better than the study's assumptions, specifically: speed of vaccination roll-out, the %age uptake of vaccines, and the effectiveness of the vaccines both to prevent hospitalisation and in extremis, death, and the extent to which they reduce transmission (and there're good data now on that) - so the green line is relevant.
NB The study takes no account of those unvaccinated who are resistant/immune following infection (~11 million under 50s in UK), which will combine with number immune through vaccination significantly and increasingly to reduce _Rt_. The study also takes no account of seasonal effects which will bear down on transmission from May onwards and hopefully see us through to the autumn (by which time 80+% will have been vaccinated).




The grey shows gradual removal of restrictions (starting in mid Feb, first graph quicker, second graph drawn out) and the green line shows infection transmission blocking effect of vaccine at 85% (yellow is @60%). Apart from schools, the plans for relaxing don't start till 29 March, so the second graph is more relevant. We can still expect more deaths next winter from C19, but small as a proportion of the average number of deaths per week (2015-19 normally ~9000 increasing to @13000 in January).


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## mjr (2 Mar 2021)

Look East BBC TV news reporting another 160 fines for lockdown-busting issued to daytrippers to the Norfolk coast the weekend just gone.

Across the channel, SNCB were running extra trains to the coast, but they didn't have a Christmas folly so aren't in lockdown, only curfew.


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## AuroraSaab (2 Mar 2021)

Said in our local paper that they were turning back cars at Formby beach who had come from as far as Manchester and Leeds. Who drives a hundred miles for a day out when the country is in lockdown? Bit of sunshine and people forget everything.


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## vickster (2 Mar 2021)

AuroraSaab said:


> Said in our local paper that they were turning back cars at Formby beach who had come from as far as Manchester and Leeds.* Who drives a hundred miles for a day out when the country is in lockdown?* Bit of sunshine and people forget everything.


Unthinking Idiots?


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## mjr (2 Mar 2021)

Bravo to the Belgian Francophone TV for this headline...






Rather than a third wave, they are apparently seeing localised "wavelets" possibly as new variants try to break out and are stomped. Alongside that and their GPs wanting to vaccinate, there were also some reports about flights being stopped (Morocco being the latest) and the rules for picking daffodils.


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## Wobblers (2 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Of the 4 tests in the 'Indicative timetable for relaxing Covid-19 NPI restrictions' it seems likely that the first two are pretty assured. And the last: increased risk if there's a new Variant of Concern in domestic circulation - is unpredictable - more likely in countries which have a continued high case rate and not done well with vaccinations (no names, but plenty of pack drill).
> Which leaves: "Infection rates [cases reported per day] do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS."
> I reckon infection rates will rise in April but by Easter numbers in hospital will be less than 8000 and still falling. The cohort who get infected, despite continued restrictions, will be the unvaccinated and they are far less likely (than over 70s) to get so ill they need hospital. So the likely increase in cases will not "risk a surge in hospitalisations" still less "put unsustainable pressure on the NHS".
> Edit: I think, therefore, it is unlikely that these 4 tests will not be satisfied at the various 'not before' dates shared by the Prime Minister. But I also think that if the data say otherwise, hard decisions will need to be made.
> ...



There are two underlying assumptions in government strategy that I find worrisome.

The first is the use of hospitalisations and deaths as the sole metric to judge the success of the vaccination program and inform the rapidity of exiting restrictions. It is becoming increasingly clear that Covid has significant long term consequences for many who catch it. This isn't just "long Covid" which, by affecting as many as 10%, is in of itself is a major economic consequence of this pandemic. Perhaps (probably, even) more significantly is that many are left with long term health problems. There's a MedCram video which goes into this - the data examined suggested over twice as many were likely to suffer cardiac damage as die. The economic effects of that alone on the NHS will likely dwarf the immediate effects of the pandemic. These long term aftereffects seem to have been neglected by current strategy.

The other assumption is that the virus won't mutate significantly. That is clearly untrue. I've been looking at the latest data to come out of Manaus in Brazil. It had a large CV outbreak in spring, and about 50% became infected. Yet despite this, it had a second major outbreak at the end of last year, due to the P1 variant. The data just out (note it hasn't been peer reviewed yet) paints a disturbing picture. P1 is 1.4 to 2.2 times more transmittable than earlier variants. Worse, it's capable of reinfecting 25-60% of those who had an earlier variant. As I've said before, this is a virus that is mutating towards antigen escape.

Let's put this into the UK perspective. The most optimistic case means that to achieve herd immunity from P1, 80% will need to have been infected or vaccinated [1]. Assuming 100% vaccine coverage, and assuming 75% vaccine effectiveness, that leaves 25% of the population vulnerable to P1. A further wave due to P1 would thus be inevitable. This is best case - more likely, the vulnerable population will be over 50% as not everyone will be vaccinating (we're not vaccinating children! We need to), I've used the low number for reinfection - 25%, and assumed that the vaccines are as effective in conferring protection as infection (unlikely). More likely, the vulnerable population will exceed 50%.

With one person with P1 at large in the UK... well, it's quite possibly more than that by now... it's certainly on the cards that it will become the dominant variant. The mass vaccination campaign will select for variants that are capable of antigen escape, like P1. From our past record, I've little faith that test and trace will be able to contain any new strains. Even if we contain P1, there is a reasonable chance that a new mutation will arise with similar properties. After all, with restrictions being lifted while only some the population have been vaccinated this creates the perfect environment for such mutations to evolve. Regretfully, I'm coming to the conclusion that a third wave of a partially resistant variant in the late summer is becoming increasingly likely.


[1] More realistically, the number's over 85%


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## mjr (2 Mar 2021)

McWobble said:


> Regretfully, I'm coming to the conclusion that a third wave of a partially resistant variant in the late summer is becoming increasingly likely.


Only if it can time travel, as we've had three wave peaks already. 

I agree that leaving the virus breeding room as planned would be a big gamble in some ways, but more variants will almost surely escape from somewhere, so it will need some reforms and restrictions, such as an increase in outdoor social activity, which I hope the government will do something to encourage tomorrow, such as exempting street seating from rates and easing evening road closures.


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## stowie (3 Mar 2021)

I know it is easy to scoff at social media, but I like to think there is plenty of good, informative stuff out there, and I hope the below falls into this category.

The cardiologist who hosts the "medlife crisis" channel presents a very balanced view on the schools reopening. As someone with secondary school child, it helped reassured me. The studies and articles he discusses are referenced in the comments. He is not a virologist and doesn't claim to be an expert. Just someone with a medical career who examines the available information.



Oh, and a lot of his other videos are rather entertaining and cover a very wide number of subjects


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## Wobblers (3 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Only if it can time travel, as we've had three wave peaks already.
> 
> I agree that leaving the virus breeding room as planned would be a big gamble in some ways, but more variants will almost surely escape from somewhere, so it will need some reforms and restrictions, such as an increase in outdoor social activity, which I hope the government will do something to encourage tomorrow, such as exempting street seating from rates and easing evening road closures.



I'm sure we had this discussion before, about whether or not the autumn peak was separate from the bigger New year one!  I now agree with you: they're really part of the same thing. But whether or not it's a third or fourth peak is academic when in reality it will be simply _bad_.

Most people seem to think that once everyone's vaccinated, it'll all be over. Unfortunately that simply isn't the case: this is the end of Act I, hopefully. But there's a long way to go yet. I've seen next to no discussion in the media about this. As you say, escape variants are likely - we can predict that simply from the observation that we're already seen two in the last 4 months. The best scenario is that CV19 has a small number of viable mutations, so in a few years we'll have experienced all possible variants, and dealt with them. The worst case is that it'll turn out to be behave more similarly to flu, and will continually generate new variants which will require much effort to contain.

Governments the world over (it's not just the UK) really need to be more honest about this, that defeating Covid is a long term project, and promising that we'll be back to normal soon is far from the mark. There is a very real danger that we'll see a resurgence down the line - even if we dodge the P1 bullet over the summer, a further peak from another mutation is likely. In particular, I find Johnson's use of the word "irreversible" in describing the easing of restrictions dangerous. Should it be necessary to re-implement them, I suspect the use of such language will reduce compliance.


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## deptfordmarmoset (3 Mar 2021)

It looks like we now have covid-19 terrorism. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/03/dutch-covid-test-centre-hit-by-suspected-bomb-attack


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## mjr (3 Mar 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It looks like we now have covid-19 terrorism. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/03/dutch-covid-test-centre-hit-by-suspected-bomb-attack


Is that new? Some test centres in England have an army presence but maybe that is purely for looks and logistical support and absolutely nothing to do with arson attacks, fights and attempted thefts of equipment following a social media myth spreading that the testing sites contain "active covid" to check each batch of tests works.


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## mjr (3 Mar 2021)

Israel deploys electronic tagging to ensure people stick to quarantine. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rantine-hotel-tracking-bracelet-idUSKCN2AT3FT


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## matticus (3 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> electronic tagging


That reminds me. The BBC have got some kind of proximity alarms for their staff to wear (to help with Social Distancing). Heard it on a podcast from months ago, dunno if they stuck with it.


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## johnblack (3 Mar 2021)

matticus said:


> That reminds me. The BBC have got some kind of proximity alarms for their staff to wear (to help with Social Distancing). Heard it on a podcast from months ago, dunno if they stuck with it.


The MEN reported on it and said they cost between £8-£12 per month per user, the BBC took 2,250 of them.


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## Ajax Bay (3 Mar 2021)

McWobble said:


> There are two underlying assumptions in government strategy that I find worrisome.
> 
> The first is the use of hospitalisations and deaths as the sole metric to judge the success of the vaccination program and inform the rapidity of exiting restrictions.
> The other assumption is that the virus won't mutate significantly. That is clearly untrue.
> Regretfully, I'm coming to the conclusion that a third wave of a partially resistant variant in the late summer is becoming increasingly likely.


I thought much of that was useful (excuse me for reducing your post to a few lines).
1) What metric do you think might offer a better insight into whether the vaccination programme continues to have a positive effect? Given that the vaccines' efficacy in trials and to meet regulatory standards, had specific objectives of:
a) reducing symptomatic C19 (ie positive test with at least one symptom)
b) reducing hospitalisations and deaths by a percentage (?60%)
it seems reasonable to adopt that metric when the time comes to judge whether to reduce restrictions. The longer term affects of C19 (not just long-Covid) are indeed worrying, but not easy to use as a metric, I suggest.
2) Wrt new variants, I suggest that Government strategy assumes no such thing. In fact the 4th 'test' specifically includes that as an 'issue'. The virus is mutating all the time. The key concern is the emergence of a 'variant of concern' (VoC). It seems that the B.1.351 variant is around in small amounts but does not out-compete the B.1.1.7. Even then we don't really have evidence of any quality that the current vaccines are quasi-ineffective against the B.1.351, but we can't be sure, so it's a concern. The P.1 variant is of concern on two counts: science suggests it is more transmissible and also reports of reinfections suggest that it can overcome antibodies generated in people who had previously had the original strain (in Brazil), with the implication for the effectiveness of the current vaccines against it.
3) My opinion is that the likelihood of a partially resistant variant active in UK in the late summer is low. Given that you think it "increasingly likely" what changes to the current Government plan do you think would be beneficial?
4) There will be a third wave (fourth wave for @mjr) in UK no later than January 2022, thobut. The vaccination programme will roll out at pace (and it'll accelerate to previously unseen doses per day from mid March as supplies of vaccine will allow first doses to be delivered alongside the second doses needed). Restrictions will be released with prudence (and a beady eye on irreversibility). Given those two, and assuming no VoC against which the vaccines are less effective, that 'third wave' will be a wavelet. I do expect some light domestic restrictions to be needed next winter and the limitations on overseas travel are going to be here for many months (imo). UK's beaches and National Parks are set to be crowded (but outside so tranmission risk very low).


----------



## classic33 (3 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Is that new? Some test centres in England have an army presence but maybe that is purely for looks and logistical support and absolutely nothing to do with arson attacks, fights and attempted thefts of equipment following a social media myth spreading that the testing sites contain "active covid" to check each batch of tests works.


They're there for logistical support they're able to give.


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## PK99 (4 Mar 2021)

This in the times, sourced from WHO via John Hopkins is starting in it clarity:





Article continues
_In Britain 64 per cent of adults are overweight, including 28 per cent who are obese, the fourth-highest in the world. The country’s Covid death rates, at 182 deaths per 100,000, is third highest, according to data up to last month. Johnson has set out plans to ban advertising and promotional deals on unhealthy food and today he will commit further funding to NHS weight-loss schemes. “Being overweight increases the risk of becoming ill with Covid. If we all do our bit, we can reduce our own health risks — but also help take pressure off the NHS,” he said. “Losing weight is hard, but making small changes can make a big difference.” _


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## Ajax Bay (4 Mar 2021)

COVID-19 surge date as a function of country mean temperature *(A)* and humidity *(B)* during the 2 preceding weeks and as a function of country's latitude *(C)*, pointing to vitamin D as one of the primary factors (flags link countries between graphs). 
What triggered the sudden surge of daily new COVID-19 cases arising in most European countries during the autumn of 2020? " The study proves no correlation between the country surge date and the 2 weeks' preceding temperature or humidity but shows *an impressive linear correlation with latitude*. The country surge date corresponds to the time when its sun UV daily dose drops below ≈ 34% of that of the equator. The date of the surge is an intrapopulation observation and has the benefit of being triggered only by a parameter globally affecting the population, i.e. decreases in the sun UV daily dose." (Goes on to posit that populations' reduced Vitamin D is correlated with susceptibility to severe C19 infection.)




Observed day of the second COVID-19 wave surge as a function of the day when the country sun UVB daily dose drops lower than 34% of that at latitude 0°.


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## Eziemnaik (4 Mar 2021)

Small offtopic regarding mentioned earlier Galicia. It seems local government there is trying hard to get the first prize in retarded anticovid measures. Wearing the face cover is obligatory all times on the bike
https://www.elperiodico.com/es/depo...a-obligatoria-correr-runners-galicia-11479088


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## rockyroller (4 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> What triggered the sudden surge of daily new COVID-19 cases arising in most European countries during the autumn of 2020? " The study proves no correlation between the country surge date and the 2 weeks' preceding temperature or humidity but shows *an impressive linear correlation with latitude*. The country surge date corresponds to the time when its sun UV daily dose drops below ≈ 34% of that of the equator. The date of the surge is an intrapopulation observation and has the benefit of being triggered only by a parameter globally affecting the population, i.e. decreases in the sun UV daily dose." (Goes on to posit populations' reduced Vitamin D (as a result of correlated with severe C19 infection.)


wonder if that's why Florida has been bragging


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## rockyroller (4 Mar 2021)

& there's these nutz

The governors of texas and mississippi said they were lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity, announcements that came in the midst of health experts warning that the spread of more transmissible variants risks sending infection rates soaring once again


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## CanucksTraveller (4 Mar 2021)

rockyroller said:


> & there's these nutz
> 
> The governors of texas and mississippi said they were lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity, announcements that came in the midst of health experts warning that the spread of more transmissible variants risks sending infection rates soaring once again



That's interesting isn't it, I do wonder if we'll see a big rise in cases in Texas. I'd expect so.


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## mjr (4 Mar 2021)

CanucksTraveller said:


> That's interesting isn't it, I do wonder if we'll see a big rise in cases in Texas. I'd expect so.


But they're at a low latitude, about 30°N.


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## PK99 (5 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> View attachment 576972
> 
> What triggered the sudden surge of daily new COVID-19 cases arising in most European countries during the autumn of 2020? " The study proves no correlation between the country surge date and the 2 weeks' preceding temperature or humidity but shows *an impressive linear correlation with latitude*. The country surge date corresponds to the time when its sun UV daily dose drops below ≈ 34% of that of the equator. The date of the surge is an intrapopulation observation and has the benefit of being triggered only by a parameter globally affecting the population, i.e. decreases in the sun UV daily dose." (Goes on to posit populations' reduced Vitamin D (as a result of correlated with severe C19 infection.)
> View attachment 576979



Full paper here>>>
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81419-w


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## deptfordmarmoset (5 Mar 2021)

PK99 said:


> Full paper here>>>
> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81419-w


I've posted it before but the link is worth contrasting with Zoe's tentative survey results - https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vitamins-reduce-covid-risk
The main conclusion here seems to be that Vitamin D supplements do confer a slight advantage but to women only.


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## PK99 (5 Mar 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I've posted it before but the link is worth contrasting with Zoe's tentative survey results - https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vitamins-reduce-covid-risk
> The main conclusion here seems to be that Vitamin D supplements do confer a slight advantage but to women only.



Shielding folks are offered free supplies of VitD tablets and Consultant at St Georges recommended a higher dose than the free supply


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## mjr (5 Mar 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I've posted it before but the link is worth contrasting with Zoe's tentative survey results - https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vitamins-reduce-covid-risk
> The main conclusion here seems to be that Vitamin D supplements do confer a slight advantage but to women only.


We will take any slight advantages we can get, won't we?


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## deptfordmarmoset (5 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> We will take any slight advantages we can get, won't we?


And where's the harm...?


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## vickster (5 Mar 2021)

My ECV father has got his free supply...hopefully he's taking it 

Everyone should pretty much take Vit D anyhow for general health especially outside of summer (especially bones - v important for post-menopausal women or folks taking corticosteroids) 

My rheumatologist has just doubled my dose as it was low on 1000IU in the Nov blood test (test has been redone)
(I also get a bit more from the daily Omega 3 and multi-vit and dietary sources presumably)


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## Ajax Bay (5 Mar 2021)

Thing is, the ECV dose being dished out is a paltry 400IU. Which will scarcely shift the needle and have, as they say, a 'sub-therapeutic' effect (if there is any beneficial effect). Like the 12 week gap 'bet', there is no downside to taking Vitamin D in a sensible daily quantity, but there's no 'evidence' of a clear causative link.


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## vickster (5 Mar 2021)

Presumably it depends what your baseline Vit D level is as to whether it's sub therapeutic? I don't know why it's only 400IU, there's no cost difference vs. 1000IU when bought in quantity.

Mine is presumably low and seemingly I don't absorb it well (hence other blood tests being done, including for auto immune disease). I've been taking 1000IU+ every day for 4 years I think.


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## Ajax Bay (5 Mar 2021)

The UK recommended 'winter' dose is 400IU. This has been shown(aiui) to maintain Vitamin D (derivatives) at level deemed to be adequate. This daily dose and the 'adequate' level are lower than many other countries. If Vitamin D reduces susceptibility to respiratory illness, a decent daily dose is required (or enough sunshine - half the length of time it takes to burn is suggested) - 4000IU for me.


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## Wobblers (6 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I thought much of that was useful (excuse me for reducing your post to a few lines).
> 1) What metric do you think might offer a better insight into whether the vaccination programme continues to have a positive effect? Given that the vaccines' efficacy in trials and to meet regulatory standards, had specific objectives of:
> a) reducing symptomatic C19 (ie positive test with at least one symptom)
> b) reducing hospitalisations and deaths by a percentage (?60%)
> ...



1. We have been far focused on hospitalisations and deaths, to the exclusion of all else. This has had the effect of largely ignoring asymptomatic transmission, which has played a major role in the spread of the virus. Data from Israel shows that the vaccines do reduce the numbers of those with asymptomatic infections: a 70% reduction in infections were noted, but over 80% reduction in serious illness. In other words, vaccines reduce serious illness more than asymptomatic infection. This is important, as it means the virus can still spread largely unnoticed in a vaccinated population - and a 30% vulnerable population is quite sufficient for P1 to do just that.

2. In my opinion, no government is taking the probability of further mutations sufficiently seriously. The experience of Manaus serves as an excellent example against complacency. It experienced a very large first wave in which about half the population became infected. Yet this wasn't sufficient to prevent a equally large second wave thanks to a variant which is able to sidestep immune response. Manaus is a reasonable model to use in considering what the effect of P1 will have on a country which has managed to vaccinate most of its people.

Which brings us neatly to point 4. I predicted the probability of a 3rd/4th wave in the summer or autumn on the observation that P1 exists, and it's uniquely able to negate vaccines and natural immunity alike. It's perfectly able to replicate the experience of Manaus in the UK - or anywhere else for that matter. It's already more transmittable than B117: that alone suggests that it will outcompete B117 to become the dominant variant worldwide. Vaccination efforts will serve to enhance its competitive advantage. Without taking the measures \Australia have done, we'll find it very difficult to keep P1 out the UK.

3. This in many ways is the crux of the matter. It's best dealt with in a separate post.


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## Wobblers (6 Mar 2021)

P1 arose in Mnaus, where there was a significant population (about half) who had antibodies against earlier variants. This is unlikely to be a coincidence. A variant which is able to escape the attentions of antibodies of previous infections obviously has an advantage in this environment. It's simply evolution in action. This process took five months. 

Given that it took CV19 to evolve a degree of antigen escape in one region in only a matter of months, it is reasonable to expect this behaviour to be repeated in other parts of the world where vaccines are being rolled out. Remember that vaccination does not halt transmission (and hence mutation), merely slows it down. As noted above, data from Israel indicates even if you manage to vaccinate your entire population, 30% will still be vulnerable to infection (though happily far less likely to experience serious illness). More realistically, as you can't vaccinate everyone, the vulnerable population will be closer to 50%. It means there will be plenty of opportunities for the virus to mutate - and antigen escape will be selected for, as it'll confer significant advantages.

Far from being unlikely, further vaccine resistant variants are _inevitable_. The only question is: _how long_? Well, P1 evolved in only five months - that suggests we can expect to see new antigen escape variants in a matter of months. They are most likely to appear in large population centres where large numbers of people have been vaccinated or have been previously infected. The best tool to reduce the spread of any new variant will be to restrict international travel.


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## Unkraut (6 Mar 2021)

I have just watched the news here with a piece on what is happening in Brazil at the moment. They are being overrun with variants of the virus whilst their president, Bolsonaro, is still refusing to listen to expert advice, is against masks and lockdowns. Beggars belief.

The real cause of concern apart from the suffering of the Brasilian population itself is the possibility that Brazil is becoming a laboratory for the virus to mutate into forms the current vaccines cannot cope with, and then spread across the world.


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## deptfordmarmoset (6 Mar 2021)

Reuters reports (according to source ''with knowledge of the study'') that the AZ vaccine does not need to be modified to protect from the P1 variant. It is less effective with the South African variant and the Sinovac vaccine may not work effectively against the P1 variant. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-variant-exc-idUSKBN2AX1NS

Meanwhile, UK death rate is continuing to fall surprisingly rapidly. Over 40% lower than a week ago.


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## mjr (6 Mar 2021)

Dark, very dark:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/forest_fr1ends/status/1366098896741687304


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## classic33 (6 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Dark, very dark*:
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/forest_fr1ends/status/1366098896741687304



*Pointless


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## shep (6 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Dark, very dark:
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/forest_fr1ends/status/1366098896741687304



All the staff that work in my Daughter's school (early years) have had the jab so not true in their case, have you no positive outlook in you?


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## Ajax Bay (6 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Dark, very dark:


"Darling, there are one tenth* the number of cases since the first and only day of term so there's less than a tenth of the numbers who have the virus and can pass it on. And the school will be taking lots of sensible precautions to minimise the risk of transmission. There'll be plenty of fresh air in your classroom: keep your coat on to keep warm if you want.
"I know you'll enjoy being back at school and seeing all your friends. There's so much to learn.
"See you later; have a good day. As a special treat, when we get home after school this afternoon I'll lend you my laptop and you can check all the Covid-19 data for fun."
* 4 Jan = 76,179, 1 Mar = <7000 (and likely another 2000+ fewer by 8 Mar) [new cases by date of specimen]


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## DCLane (6 Mar 2021)

Coming home today the road near me was packed with 50+ cars either side. There were crowds of people all over as I pulled in for the funeral Conductor so they could come past.

Apparently someone down the road age 44 had died from Covid.

So, what did the crowds do whilst the funeral cortege plus loads of cars filed slowly through? That's right, gather together in large groups then have a long chat.  With cases still high in my area maybe they're just working out who's next to die?


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## midlife (6 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> All the staff that work in my Daughter's school (early years) have had the jab so not true in their case, have you no positive outlook in you?



Blimey, are they all I the first phase priority groups?


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## shep (7 Mar 2021)

midlife said:


> Blimey, are they all I the first phase priority groups?


Work with 'vulnerable ' kids so head of year wrote them all a letter stating as much and told them to book a test, test centre asked for proof so showed them her letter.


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## mjr (7 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> Work with 'vulnerable ' kids so head of year wrote them all a letter stating as much and told them to book a test, test centre asked for proof so showed them her letter.


OK, that's a test. What about the jab?


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## shep (7 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> OK, that's a test. What about the jab?


Typo, already said she's had the jab.

Also covered previously in another thread, but you know that.


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## mjr (7 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> Typo, already said she's had the jab.
> 
> Also covered previously in another thread, but you know that.


She? We were asking about "them"!

I don't remember another thread, plus other people are reading this, so please link to it if the question of how all school staff were vaccinated has already been answered.


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## deptfordmarmoset (7 Mar 2021)

Yes, I know it's a Sunday but there are no fatalities recorded for today. Last Sunday the figure was 144. There'll probably be 200-odd tomorrow but, nevertheless, it's not often we get a zero figure. (Does anybody know when that last happened?)


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## Ajax Bay (7 Mar 2021)

From: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
7 March 2021
"Owing to processing issues for deaths in England, the numbers of deaths throughout the UK will be updated later. In the meantime, the number of newly reported deaths for 7 March 2021 may incorrectly show as zero."


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## midlife (7 Mar 2021)

Sky reporting the figure for England as 90.


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## deptfordmarmoset (7 Mar 2021)

Sorry guys, false alarm. I was misled by the figure being reported as 0 when it usually stays at the previous day's total.


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## shep (7 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Would you like to rephrase that?


Pretty clear I thought?🤷‍♂️


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## matticus (8 Mar 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Sorry guys, false alarm. I was misled by the figure being reported as 0 when it usually stays at the previous day's total.


A false negative?

:-)


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## matticus (8 Mar 2021)

DCLane said:


> Coming home today the road near me was packed with 50+ cars either side. There were crowds of people all over as I pulled in for the funeral Conductor so they could come past.
> 
> Apparently someone down the road age 44 had died from Covid.
> 
> So, what did the crowds do whilst the funeral cortege plus loads of cars filed slowly through? That's right, gather together in large groups then have a long chat.  With cases still high in my area maybe they're just working out who's next to die?


... and on a similar vein, have folks here seen the pictures from Glasgow after a popular sports team won a match?
We need a stronger version of facepalm emoji.


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## MrGrumpy (8 Mar 2021)

matticus said:


> ... and on a similar vein, have folks here seen the pictures from Glasgow after a popular sports team won a match?
> We need a stronger version of facepalm emoji.


 and you wonder why the West of Scotland were deep in the mire of CoVid at one point ! Idiots will be idiots, Darwin at work as I call it


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## Joey Shabadoo (8 Mar 2021)

https://english.elpais.com/economy_...ource=Twitter&ssm=TW_CM_EN#Echobox=1615200993



> Spain sees sharp decline in births
> There was a 23% fall in registered newborns in the December-January period compared with the previous year, mirroring similar trends in neighboring countries



At first I thought that was surprising, as most couples would have been stuck at home but I suppose the lockdown meant less mixing and social interactions overall.


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## IaninSheffield (8 Mar 2021)

matticus said:


> ... and on a similar vein, have folks here seen the pictures from Glasgow after a popular sports team won a match?
> We need a stronger version of facepalm emoji.


And how does that square with:


IanSmithCSE said:


> There is article here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-56312817 - NHS pay-rise demo organiser fined £10,000 in Manchester


where 40 people were involved?


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## Joey Shabadoo (8 Mar 2021)

IaninSheffield said:


> And how does that square with:
> 
> where 40 people were involved?


Because the Police find it very easy to tackle old women, they're not keen on anybody who might answer back.


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## vickster (8 Mar 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Because the Police find it very easy to tackle old women, they're not keen on anybody who might answer back.


Different police force...

Or lots of the Glasgow Rozzers are also sympathetic Rangers fans?


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## Joey Shabadoo (8 Mar 2021)

vickster said:


> Different police force...
> 
> Or lots of the Glasgow Rozzers are also sympathetic Rangers fans?


There's video on Twitter of one copper dancing with the fans outside Ibrox right enough.


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## MrGrumpy (8 Mar 2021)

vickster said:


> Different police force...
> 
> Or lots of the Glasgow Rozzers are also sympathetic Rangers fans?



Haha yes indeed, fully fledged members of the Lodge up here


----------



## shep (8 Mar 2021)

I recall a few 'protests ' last year that appeared to go unpunished during lockdown.


----------



## mjr (8 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> Why you arguing the t**s with me?


Not arguing the toss. Just trying to tease out the details from the gibberish posted.



> My Daughter, who is 19, works in a primary school and all the Staff in the 'Early Years' department have been VACCINATED because there are some kids that have been deemed 'Vulnerable' so the head of year told them to book a JAB and supplied them with a letter to show at the vaccination Centre.
> 
> Clear?


Better. So it seems at least one vaccination centre is ignoring the decision not to prioritise teachers.



> You still got your Ar*e in your hand cos you haven't been vaccinated yet?


Why do you have that mistaken idea?


----------



## Ajax Bay (8 Mar 2021)

Lateral Flow Test accuracy





Been lots of LFT usefulness coverage
LFTs take up to 30 minutes (and my 17 year old had one on this his first day back in school). My sister will use one to be the 'one visitor' for my mother.
Lots of chat on false positives (LFT +ve yet a subsequent polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test comes back negative, after 2 days, say) and the impact of such: off school, family forced to self-isolate, classmates off school, etc. Suggested false +ve rate is about 1:1000.
But there's been more concern in the run up to schools reopening about so-called false negatives: LFT returns -ve but actually subject is infected with C19 (definition: nasal swabs simultaneously taken test +ve using PCR test - see below about whether that is 'infected with C19') and the potential adverse effects.
When they were trying to get 'on top' of the way higher than UK average case rates in Liverpool in the summer (remember that!) they did loads of LFTs and also took samples to analyse with PCR. This found that, with asymptomatic subjects, for every 4 LFT +ves there'd be those 4 plus 6 others who all tested +ve using the PCR test.
LFT is more accurate at detecting a higher viral load (the sort of amount that will mean the subject is liable to transmit the virus to others) but is not as 'good' at detecting lower level viral loads.
PCR testing is very sensitive and detects even very small amounts of viral load. It has been suggested that the sensitivity rate being used in PCR testing is too great and - for asymptomatic subjects - detects the residue of virus after the subject has stopped being infectious. Whether it is too sensitive or not has wider implications, but helps give context to the claim that LFTs are "only 40% accurate".
So you have two types of test: one super sensitive and another 'good enough' for school/work place/care home visitor use (and can be conducted immediately before the visit or before going into class). In the last example visitors, even if testing -ve with a LFT will still be wearing some PPE and can hold hands but not hug/kiss or generally risk significant oral/nasal efflux directly onto their aged loved one.
More or Less offers this 8 minute easy listen: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p095jclg


----------



## shep (8 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Not arguing the toss. Just trying to tease out the details from the gibberish posted.
> 
> 
> Better. So it seems at least one vaccination centre is ignoring the decision not to prioritise teachers.
> ...





shep said:


> All the staff that work in my Daughter's school (early years) have had the jab so not true in their case, have you no positive outlook in you?


You find that hard to understand?
Which part is 'gibberish '?

You don't see yourself as wining because you haven't had the jab?

The comment above regarding vaccination centres giving it teachers (she's a TA as it happens) leads me to think of you as I do.

Was it you who came up with being 'thrown under the bus' because you might not be vaccinated by the time restrictions are lifted?


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## mjr (8 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> You find that hard to understand?
> Which part is 'gibberish '?


When @midlife asked how that happened and you started on about them booking tests.



> You don't see yourself as wining because you haven't had the jab?


Nope. I agree that others should be vaccinated before me. Probably teachers and assistants should be vaccinated before me too, but that is not what the government decided and it is interesting if that is being subverted in practice.



> Was it you who came up with being 'thrown under the bus' because you might not be vaccinated by the time restrictions are lifted?


No, but I may have been the first to post it here. The vaccination prioritisation is not the complaint there!


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## Ajax Bay (8 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> So it seems at least one vaccination centre is ignoring the decision not to prioritise teachers.


To help your understanding, @mjr and to avoid accusations of 'gibberish', here's some context (below) which no doubt the headteacher drew on for guidance. I note that @shep explained his daughter's teaching/assistant environment: she is not just a 'normal teacher'. The decision not to prioritise teachers generally stands. This will mean you get your vaccine sooner (about early May, I reckon) and can step safely onto the bus.

Dr Jenny Harries, Deputy CMO England, told MPs (select committee I think) in Jan: “Anybody providing direct care in a clinical capacity, which I know happens in some educational settings, would be included within the health and social care staff group.” And PH England told _Schools Week_ (Jan) that “staff in some schools for clinically vulnerable children would fit the JCVI criteria of frontline care”. [JCVI Group 2]


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## mjr (8 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> [...] I note that @shep explained his daughter's teaching/assistant environment: she is not just a 'normal teacher'. [...]


OK, thanks, I didn't know that. I saw mention that some of the children are vulnerable, but not that this was a clinical care setting.


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## shep (8 Mar 2021)

Thanks for that but why should people care?

I know someone who works as a receptionist in a Doctors who had it, her husband also had it because they had some spare. Both early 50's.

The more people done the better in my opinion.


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## PK99 (8 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> Thanks for that but why should people care?
> 
> I know someone who works as a receptionist in a Doctors who had it, her husband also had it* because they had some spare*. Both early 50's.
> 
> The more people done the better in my opinion.



Using up spares is a good thing to do.

Subverting clinical priorities and delaying bookings for higher clinical priority people would not be a good thing to do.


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## Ajax Bay (8 Mar 2021)

Think we have 'done' the don't throw away any end of day residue issue on the 'vaccine' thread. This was an issue 6 weeks ago when the first 4 JCVI groups were being jabbed, and NHS England gave firm guidance that centres and surgeries should make a better effort to maintain a 'call at short notice' list drawn from people in the current or next JCVI Group. Noone wanted to see doses discarded but vaccinating randoms caused unnecessary 'communications' issues.


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## shep (8 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> OK, thanks, I didn't know that. I saw mention that some of the children are vulnerable, but not that this was a clinical care setting.


It's a basic primary school with some kids that are classed a 'vulnerable ' , I've explained this already. 

Why the massive concern?

And you wonder why I think you seem bitter.


mjr said:


> I haven't. I'm not in a priority group. I'm in the "to be thrown under the bus on 21 June" group under the current plans.


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## shep (8 Mar 2021)

PK99 said:


> Using up spares is a good thing to do.
> 
> Subverting clinical priorities and delaying bookings for higher clinical priority people would not be a good thing to do.


You know what, on this forum someone posts a simple reply to a subject and then needs to spend God knows how long explaining every detail!


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## mjr (8 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> It's a basic primary school with some kids that are classed a 'vulnerable ' , I've explained this already.


Maybe @Ajax Bay would like to comment on whether this fits the clinical care setting.



> Why the massive concern?


Why do you think it's massive concern? It's merely interest.



> And you wonder why I think you seem bitter.


Yep. Right now, I am wondering if everything read on the internet is taken as extreme, everything turned up to 11 (have you tried the Android 11 Easter Egg yet, Spinal Tap fans?) and no middle ground.


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## shep (8 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Maybe @Ajax Bay would like to comment on whether this fits the clinical care setting.
> 
> 
> Why do you think it's massive concern? It's merely interest.
> ...


Why should ANYONE care whether it's a 'Clinical care situation ' she's had a jab before someone else, so what.

To post all the stuff about who should have it or not seems a bit more than just an interest to me.

My lad works in a Prison, he hasn't had it nor does he care, I haven't and nor do I care. Some mates of mine who are younger have had it, our time will come.


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## Ajax Bay (8 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> So it seems at least one vaccination centre is ignoring the decision not to prioritise teachers.





mjr said:


> Maybe @Ajax Bay would like to comment on whether this fits the clinical care setting.
> Yep. Right now, I am wondering if everything read on the internet is taken as extreme, . . . and no middle ground.


Who am I to judge whether @shep's daughter's school headmaster's judgement was correct or not? I'll leave that to them and the local vaccination organisation. You don't know the detail; I don't; and probably @shep doesn't have a full insight to the detail of various pupils' vulnerabilities (and if he does, it's not for sharing).
In other news:
* schools have opened up again,
*a person (each) can visit their aged relative/friend in care homes,
* the UK will take the first of 4 steps reducing restrictions on 29 Mar, within 30 days [Edit: after error inferred]
* the number in UK hospitals with a positive C19 test has dropped below 10,000 for the first time since 25 Oct,
* the number of daily new cases is 10% of the January peak (number of tests is 20% higher than then btw),
* the vaccination programme is rattling on, with vaccine hesitancy low, and a supply surge from next weekend,
* I got a nice ride in today's sunshine, and later sorted a 'noisy' rear hub (cone was pitted).

Your terrier-like chasing of the weaknesses and incongruities of "everything [you] read on the internet is extreme".
"Sorry, can't come to supper, love: someone's got something wrong (or seems odd to me) on t'internet."


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## mjr (8 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> * the UK will take the first of 4 steps reducing restrictions on 29 Mar,


Have Scotland and Wales fallen in line with the plan for England?



Ajax Bay said:


> Your terrier-like chasing of the weaknesses and incongruities of "everything [you] read on the internet is extreme".
> "Sorry, can't come to supper, love: someone's got something wrong (or seems odd to me) on t'internet."


 :?:


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## MrGrumpy (8 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Have Scotland and Wales fallen in line with the plan for England?
> 
> 
> :?:


Might be some changes around that tomorrow as our FM alluded too . As in sped up relaxation of some rules based on better than expected vaccine results etc . However don’t quote me, as not 100% sure !


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## Ajax Bay (8 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Have Scotland and Wales fallen in line with the plan for England?





MrGrumpy said:


> Might be some changes around that tomorrow as our FM alluded too. As in sped up relaxation of some rules based on better than expected vaccine results etc . However don’t quote me, as not 100% sure!


Scotland have adopted slightly different dates, I assume for presentational purposes:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/scotland-lockdown-roadmap-rules-b1813862.html
Schools went back a fortnight ago.
Wales: https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/wales-l...-long-rules-review-update-announcement-879155
Looks like the first step there, if the data allow, will be taken "before Easter" so likely on 29 Mar, as in England.
@mjr - Picking me up on the use of 'UK' when the date I gave was for 'England' is a lovely example of "terrier-like chasing of the weaknesses and incongruities of everything [you] read". Perfectly correct but adds no value.


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## shep (8 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Who am I to judge whether @shep's daughter's school headmaster's judgement was correct or not? I'll leave that to them and the local vaccination organisation. You don't know the detail; I don't; and probably @shep doesn't have a full insight to the detail of various pupils' vulnerabilities (and if he does, it's not for sharing).
> In other news:
> * schools have opened up again,
> *a person (each) can visit their aged relative/friend in care homes,
> ...


You're right there pal, sorry you've been dragged into it, the conversation went something like this...
Daughter "having the jab Friday "

Dad "how come?"

Daughter "head of early yrs told us to go on line and book one, she's wrote us all a letter explaining we work with vulnerable kid's and if asked show them".

Dad "nice one".

Wish I hadn't bothered. 🙄


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## matticus (8 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> You're right there pal, sorry you've been dragged into it, the conversation went something like this...
> Daughter "having the jab Friday "
> 
> Dad "how come?"
> ...


Have you told her all the trouble she's caused since??


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## shep (8 Mar 2021)

matticus said:


> Have you told her all the trouble she's caused since??




Let's hope the Lad doesn't get one!


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## Ajax Bay (8 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> sorry you've been dragged into it
> Let's hope the Lad doesn't get one!


Happy to take my turn into the wind, provide the _quid pro quo_ is the opportunity for sucking wheels the rest of the time.
Yes: the inmates will 'cry havoc and let slip the shackles of peace'; oh, and bring t'walls down, from within.


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## mjr (8 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> @mjr - Picking me up on the use of 'UK' when the date I gave was for 'England' is a lovely example of "terrier-like chasing of the weaknesses and incongruities of everything [you] read". Perfectly correct but adds no value.


Only an English not living near a border would write that.


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## MrGrumpy (8 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Scotland have adopted slightly different dates, I assume for presentational purposes:
> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/scotland-lockdown-roadmap-rules-b1813862.html
> Schools went back a fortnight ago.



Yes but she has eluded to maybe bringing forward some changes ?! However we shall see what is said tomorrow.


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## classic33 (8 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Only an English not living near a border would write that.


An English?


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## vickster (8 Mar 2021)

classic33 said:


> An English?



View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=huSP7PtctC4


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## mjr (8 Mar 2021)

classic33 said:


> An English?


Good old autocorrect!


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## IaninSheffield (9 Mar 2021)

Latest (8th March) US CDC guidance:


> Visit with other fully vaccinated people indoors without wearing masks or staying 6 feet apart.
> Visit with unvaccinated people from one other household indoors without wearing masks or staying 6 feet apart if everyone in the other household is at low risk for severe disease.
> Refrain from quarantine and testing if they do not have symptoms of COVID-19 after contact with someone who has COVID-19.


Bit premature, no?


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## Ajax Bay (9 Mar 2021)

Here is the SPI-M-O paper (7 Feb) which modelled easing NPI restrictions in stages. It combines the ICL and Warwick work and will have been foundation for deliberations and UK Government decisions shared on 22 Feb.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...lling_on_scenario_for_easing_restrictions.pdf
* All four scenarios modelled lead to a substantial resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths later this year.
*The scale and timing of these resurgences are critically dependent on very uncertain modelled assumptions, including real world vaccine effectiveness against severe disease and infection; vaccine coverage and rollout speed; behavioural factors; and the extent to which baseline measures (which could be voluntary) continue to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted. Given this uncertainty, it would be inadvisable to tie changes in policy to dates instead of data.
* As restrictions are relaxed virus transmission will increase. The more slowly restrictions are relaxed, the greater the number of hospitalisations and deaths prevented by vaccination and hence it would be less likely that restrictions would need to be reimposed.
* A significant proportion of adults will remain who are not directly protected by vaccination.
e.g.: Proportion of adults directly protected against severe disease = 85% (assumes 15% not vaccinated (unable or unwilling)
Vaccine efficacy against severe disease x 79% (average of Pfizer and Oxford-AZ).
So final coverage = 67%
But only around 79% of the population are adults (53M over 18), which means population level protection is lower, at 53%. In addition, protection against infection is likely to be lower than that against disease. As a result, herd immunity is not reached without a large resurgence of transmission.
Comment: This relies on the unvaccinated catching it in numbers and developing antibodies.
Comment: If trials show vaccine can be used on under 16s then herd immunity becomes more achievable - once that cohort (12+M) is vaccinated.
Note: Modelling doesn't try to take account of seasonal effects (beneficial effect), any waning immunity (detrimental affect), or the adverse effect of any VoC that emerge in significant amounts in UK. There is emerging evidence (so less uncertainty) about vaccine effectiveness against serious disease (hospitalisation) and against transmission.
The paper perforce makes loads of assumptions and plenty of sensitivity analysis. But I'll paste one graph - the current England plan is slightly more prudent than the blue line in the graph below. And hospital occupancy is currently (8 Mar) about 80% of the black line (ie better than the model assumes). And summer's coming.





Assumes baseline (after all easing) measures reduce transmission to equivalent of (old) Tier 1. Assumes 4m doses per week from 22 Mar and uptake of 95% (over 80s), 85% (others). From the Warwick model.


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## MrGrumpy (9 Mar 2021)

So really anyone who thinks its business as usual come June 21st is havin a laugh !! Think I prefer the more cautious approach to unlocking up here, however it makes no difference does it if a neighbour close by has opened up a lot more ?


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## Ajax Bay (9 Mar 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> I prefer the more cautious approach to unlocking up here [in Scotland]


More cautious? Steady as she/we go.
Scotland will return to a tiered system from the last week in April; the 'framework' would be staggered at three week intervals - two weeks faster than in England.
FM told MSPs the five-level system should see the entire country enter Level 4 and drop down to Level 3, which would see sectors such as non-essential retail reopen from Apr 26. The stay at home restriction will be lifted from Apr 5.
"It is therefore from the last week of April that we would expect to see phased but significant reopening of the economy, including non-essential retail, hospitality and services like gyms and hairdressers."
Care home restrictions will be eased and from Mar 15, the next phase of school returns - including primary and some secondary students - will begin. Outdoor mixing will also increase to four people from two households. 
Communal worship can also resume, maybe for Passover. 
FM said she will "seek to accelerate" changes where possible. She added that she was "optimistic" about restoring "more normality" to people's lives in the coming months.


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## MrGrumpy (9 Mar 2021)

Yep but the tiered scoring would be tighter! measuring the rate of infection per 100k would be require half again in comparison to last year before moving into the next tier. Anyway lets wait another week to see what further changes she plans.


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## Chromatic (10 Mar 2021)

What's happened to @tom73 ?


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## Ajax Bay (10 Mar 2021)

Chromatic said:


> What's happened to @tom73 ?


I was worrying about that last night. Last posted in early Feb.


tom73 said:


> He's going to be setting out more later this month "about the way ahead" and that "people should certainly be able to plan on that basis".
> So no need to panic buy the bog roll we will have plenty of time to stock up in the mean time.


And @kingrollo has stopped(?) contributing since 25 Feb.


kingrollo said:


> Lol - you couldn't make this shite up could you ! Unbelievable !


Maybe both are taking a breather from their NHS duties now cases are a tenth of their ghastly peak (?6 Jan) and hospital (with C19) numbers are down from 38,428 (19 Jan) to less than 10,000.


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## Chromatic (10 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I was worrying about that last night. Last posted in early Feb.
> 
> And @kingrollo has stopped(?) contributing since 25 Feb.
> 
> Maybe both are taking a breather from their NHS duties now cases are a tenth of their ghastly peak (?6 Jan) and hospital (with C19) numbers are down from 38.428 (19 Jan) to less than 10,000.



Let's hope both are well.


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## shep (10 Mar 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> So really anyone who thinks its business as usual come June 21st is havin a laugh !! Think I prefer the more cautious approach to unlocking up here, however it makes no difference does it if a neighbour close by has opened up a lot more ?


You're in control of your own fate though really aren't you?

If your neighbours suddenly start partying to all hours, you haven't got to go and I doubt Covid will blow through your window from next door.

If you feel unsafe going to the pub stop in.

If people you know are behaving 'irresponsible ' don't visit them or let them into your home. 

It's pretty easy to protect yourself from the virus, do what you've been doing for the past year.


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## MrGrumpy (10 Mar 2021)

You say your in control but you can only control so much ! Prime example is a colleague and his family all isolating due to covid. Caught from some daft young lass at his daughters care home , who despite all the warnings , went partying ! I mean wtf !! So yes we are all in control to some extent but there are some right selfish @rseholes around.


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## roubaixtuesday (11 Mar 2021)

Anyone remember the "Great Barrington Declaration"? The anti lockdown screed two of whose signatories were invited to brief Johnson ahead of the decision not to impose restrictions back in October?

Unsurprisingly, the libertarian think tank behind it turns out to be populated by anti vax nutjobs.

Whoda thunk


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/GYamey/status/1369811367146962944


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## mjr (12 Mar 2021)

News from around Europe:

Portugal releasing lockdown after about 2 months, borders remain closed - case rates also falling in UK and Spain;

Czechia case rate far higher than most, new variants blamed, causing worry in neighbours Poland and Austria that are also seeing increases — Italy is also seeing a slow increase, while Denmark and Norway seem to be increasing but still low;

France is seeing stubbornly flat case numbers amid scenes of crowds in Paris, with further restrictions expected on top of curfews and weekend lockdowns — Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden are also seeing case numbers near-flat;

This chart shows the last month of confirmed case numbers. Usual cautions about comparing countries applies, but each country's "direction of travel" should be pretty reliable unless there has been sudden changes in the testing rules:


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## johnblack (12 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> News from around Europe:
> 
> Portugal releasing lockdown after about 2 months, borders remain closed - case rates also falling in UK and Spain;
> 
> ...


The testing is a huge factor now, it would be interesting to see how many tests were carried out in each country, my kids have been tested three times this week due to the return of schools, is there a graph that shows cases per tests carried out?


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## mjr (12 Mar 2021)

johnblack said:


> The testing is a huge factor now, it would be interesting to see how many tests were carried out in each country, my kids have been tested three times this week due to the return of schools, is there a graph that shows cases per tests carried out?


Yes, see ourworldindata.org but it's a few days behind, so doesn't yet cover this week. I think I've selected the same countries but apologies if I missed any:





Again, these aren't perfectly comparable between countries and, in most places, more tests will be carried out if there are more people feeling ill or more people testing positive (this last is called "surge testing" in the UK).


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## Ajax Bay (12 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> case rates also falling in UK


7-day rates, maybe, as reported by 'World in Data". But actually the UK case rate (ie per day) by date reported has ticked up these last 4 days, however, as @johnblack points out and you allow "unless there has been sudden changes in the testing": the reason/cause is testing . . . .

UK testing increased from about 750k pd (3-day average) to about 1480k pd with the huge numbers of LFTs taken as secondary schools have reopened this week. I suggest this is a rather more likely explanation for the doubling of testing (not "more people feeling ill or more people testing positive") - perhaps parents with adolescents at school are closer to this coalface.
Seems likely that that will have driven the upturn in reported cases. Huge portion of these asymptomatic infections have been discovered (whereas without the LFTs they wouldn't have been).
UK Government daily cases

11-03-20216,75310-03-20215,92609-03-20215,76608-03-20214,71207-03-20215,17706-03-20216,04005-03-20215,94704-03-20216,573


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## mjr (12 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I suggest this is a rather more likely explanation for the doubling of testing (not " more people feeling ill or more people testing positive")


My comments were international and explain some of the variations. It is not exhaustive, we don't have to limit ourselves to only one explanation, not even one per country, and the latest above misdirection is disappointing to see, whether unintended or not.


----------



## oldwheels (12 Mar 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> So really anyone who thinks its business as usual come June 21st is havin a laugh !! Think I prefer the more cautious approach to unlocking up here, however it makes no difference does it if a neighbour close by has opened up a lot more ?


Even if we are a bit more cautious it would make no difference. As soon as restrictions are lifted by our neighbour all the tourist areas here will be flooded whether we like it or not.


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## mjr (13 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Italy is also seeing a slow increase,


Italy locks down on Monday until at least 6 April. Schools and non vital shops closed, people not allowed out in general in red zones (or anywhere over Easter), bars and restaurants takeaway only in orange zones. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/13/europe/italy-coronavirus-national-lockdown-intl/index.html


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Mar 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> The stat is correct because it's cumulative.
> 
> What we don't know is how long someone who has had Covid is infectious, but to suggest only two Londoners out of several hundred will be Covid spreaders is nonsense.



Please read the link to the ONS survey I linked to.

Prevalence is the proportion of people who will test positive if sampled at random. [Edit: in London]

As of March 6th, it was estimated at 0.3% or one in 300 ish.

Two out of several hundred is spot on.

Link again:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...aviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12march2021


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## Ajax Bay (14 Mar 2021)

@Pale Rider 
"What we don't know is how long someone who has had Covid is infectious, but to suggest only two Londoners out of several hundred will be Covid spreaders is nonsense."
Think it's reasonable to assume that if someone would test positive they are potential spreaders and if they would test negative they aren't. So the link to prevalence @rt has shared is relevant. Hey, if you used 'cumulative' (12 months!) positive tests for C19 in London and doubled it (to account for asymptomatic non-tested ) it'd be maybe one in 5.


roubaixtuesday said:


> Please read the link to the ONS survey I linked to.
> Prevalence is the proportion of people who will test positive if sampled at random. [Edit: in London]
> one in 300 ish.
> https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...aviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12march2021


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Mar 2021)

Adam4868 said:


> Lol...thread about lone women becomes a dick swinging contest for stats...
> How surprising 🙄



@Adam4868 I did try. And I thought very politely too.

@Pale Rider is unequivocally entirely wrong on the stats too.


----------



## Pale Rider (14 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> @Adam4868 I did try. And I thought very politely too.
> 
> @Pale Rider is unequivocally entirely wrong on the stats too.



Let's try a different approach.

Explain herd immunity to me.


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Mar 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Let's try a different approach.
> 
> Explain herd immunity to me.



Sure, but it's irrelevant to the point at hand. Let's do that first. 

The ONS survey randomly samples people and tests them with PCR (polymerase chain reaction).

PCR detects viral RNA - you only have this during or very shortly after (days at most) an infection. It's very sensitive, to the point that a fair proportion of people who test positive will not actually be infectious - their viral load will be too low. So it gives, if anything, an upper bound on the proportion of infectious people. 

They do the survey weekly. The week you quoted was the peak of the second wave. Since then, all the people tested positive then would now be negative by PCR. So it is *not* cumulative. 

The latest figures, in the link I gave, show 0.3% prevalence in London. So in a crowd of 300, just one person would be positive, on average. 

Once you've recovered, and if you test negative by PCR, you are no longer infectious. 

I how that makes sense. Please come back if not.


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## Pale Rider (14 Mar 2021)

You've managed to 'explain' herd immunity without mentioning herd immunity.

I'm guessing you now agree - with the ONS, not me - that about 1 in 25 or 30 Londoners have had Covid.

How many of those remain infectious is simply not known, although the ability of a Covid carrier to infect others does appear to drop over time.

A better argument for allowing mass gatherings is the success of the vaccination programme.

In other words, it largely doesn't matter if a vaccinated person catches Covid because the vaccine will usually suppress the impact of Covid to a trivial level.

Although even that is not much comfort to those who have been vaccinated but who still suffer serious symptoms or death.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (14 Mar 2021)

Next, the testing for antibodies.

Antibodies are produced by the immune system in response to infection. 

This *is* cumulative (roughly); antibody response is long lived, though there is some decline over months, and we don't know how much yet. It's testing whether someone has *ever* been infected, not whether they currently are. 

This testing is sometimes called serology, because its a test of serum, from blood, not a swab test of the nose and throat which is what's used for PCR.

The ONS also does a serology survey, but much less frequently. I think this is the most recent, showing 15% are antibody positive. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ctionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/3february2021


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Mar 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> that about 1 in 25 or 30 Londoners have had Covid



No, please see the next post. Its about one in seven nationally. Though that's an underestimate as antibody response declines over time, plus it was done a few weeks ago so will have increased, plus London is probably much higher than the uk average.


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## midlife (14 Mar 2021)

I thought the problem with PCR was that it was very sensitive and could pick up fragments of dead virus a long time after infection?


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## Craig the cyclist (14 Mar 2021)

I am really enjoying this battle of the improbable stats


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Mar 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> How many of those remain infectious is simply not known



This is not the case. 

If you test negative by PCR you're pretty much unequivocally not infectious. 

Only 0.3% of the current population of London are PCR positive, according to that ONS survey. 

I'll try and find something authoritative on this for you.


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Mar 2021)

midlife said:


> I thought the problem with PCR was that it was very sensitive and could pick up fragments of dead virus a long time after infection?



Nah, not really. A few days.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (14 Mar 2021)

@Pale Rider 

I wanted to explain the different tests before going to herd immunity. 

The R number defines, on average how many people each infected person will infect. 

But if some are immune, that number reduces. 

If R=4 for current COVID strain, then on average every infected person will infect for others. 

So let's imagine 5 people. 

One catches COVID.

R=4, so they infect all four others, and the virus expands exponentially. 

But now imagine three of those are immune. Whether through vaccination or previous infection. 

Now, the one person only infects that one other person. And R=1.

We don't have a definitive test for immunity, but the serology test is the closest we have. 

Once that 15% becomes 75% we have herd immunity. 

[There are many caveats and details to this, but that's the gist of it]


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## Craig the cyclist (14 Mar 2021)

I think it's time for you both to reveal your credentials in the use of all these stats! I am expecting big things from roubaixtuesday!


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## Ajax Bay (14 Mar 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> You've managed to 'explain' herd immunity without mentioning herd immunity.
> I'm guessing you now agree - with the ONS, not me - that about 1 in 25 or 30 Londoners have had Covid.


Last things first. About 1 in 5 Londoners have had C19, but not many (1 in 300) have it now (positive test or would test positive).
Herd immunity. Here's my text from 29 Jan, with a bit of _comment_:
*"Easing of lock down in March* may (will) have an effect of increasing the R number (R was 0.98 (range of 0.92 to 1.04) on 22 Jan, and dropping, so by March, well below 1.0) but that will be countered (in terms of number of cases) by the reduced number of the population 'in play': ~18% (12M) will have been vaccinated, rising weekly, to which add those who've had COVID-19 and who still have a sufficient level of antibodies - maybe 7M. So the 'new case' rate will be low and probably fall. _Comment: This happened._
These factors and effects mean that reducing the restrictions (aka ending lock down) then will be a reasonable government decision, and one which avoids accusations of delay and procrastination (though no doubt there will be other views and criticisms, and rightly so, we live in an open society).
"Provided vaccine supplies remain sufficient (to allow 2.5M doses delivered per week), we should have *vaccinated all the Groups (1-9* - #30M (NB 33M less 10%)) laid out by JCVI *by mid Apr* (all over 50s). NB takes into account that second doses will take about half the delivery from 14 Mar onwards. _Comment: JCVI 1-9 will now be achieved by Easter, thanks to increased supply to 4M doses a week"_


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## Ajax Bay (14 Mar 2021)

From my post from yesterday in the vaccine thread ('liked' by @roubaixtuesday so I'll assume it has their imprimatur)

Key factors which will affect the population percentage where we might expect national *herd immunity* are:
1) transmissibility of whatever is the by then dominant variant (looking like B.1.1.7) - reflected in Rt, NB the summer months will have a beneficial effect,
2) actual reduction in transmission by vaccinated but infected people of the virus which vaccines afford - hopefully 70+% will not 'transmit',
3) the limited depressive effect on 'R' of whatever restrictions remain,
4) number of unvaccinated million or two who've had COVID-19 (tested and asymptomatic) and retained sufficient antibodies (eg in the under 20 cohort and in those who choose not to be vaccinated).
The 90+% level of uptake recently reported also means that UK herd immunity may be achievable without having to vaccinate the under 16s (UK and USA trials under way to check/allow the latter). Bear in mind primary school age children seem to be less susceptible and contagious than adults, in which case they may be partially omitted from the computation of herd immunity. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.19.20157362v2 I have not made this exclusion below.
The population of UK is 67M - ONS (incl 13M under 16). At the forecast vaccination rate from yesterday (13 Mar - 4M per week, increasing numbers second dose from now till mid June) we might hope to reach 54M first doses *by mid July*: which would be* 80%*.
Opinions vary on the percentage required and to an extent on the definition. It may be we never reach herd immunity for C19 VoC. Haven't managed it against flu.


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Mar 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> I think it's time for you both to reveal your credentials in the use of all these stats! I am expecting big things from roubaixtuesday!



Beware of credentials.

Look for reputable citations. And check for views from other, reputable sources. 

Many Internet cranks have impeccable credentials. At least one nobel prize winner has crank status on COVID https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Levitt


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## Craig the cyclist (14 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Beware of credentials.
> 
> Look for reputable citations. And check for views from other, reputable sources.
> 
> Many Internet cranks have impeccable credentials. At least one nobel prize winner has crank status on COVID https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Levitt



Thanks for the warning, I will beware of your credentials when you tell me what they are.

So you just cut and paste then?


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## roubaixtuesday (14 Mar 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Thanks for the warning, I will beware of your credentials when you tell me what they are.
> 
> So you just cut and paste then?



I would very much encourage you to beware of my credentials. Or those of anyone else, even Nobel Prize winners. 

I have some experience and skills relevant to help me, which I would rather not go into, but there is nothing I've posted that cannot be readily researched by anyone with good numeracy, basic science knowledge, and an ability to judge the reliability of sources (libertarian websites bad, public health and published science good).

I am absolutely not an original researcher into COVID, not by a very long distance.


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## Ajax Bay (14 Mar 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> I will beware of your credentials when you tell me what they are.
> So you just cut and paste then?


Cummon, Craig, this is Cycle*Chat*, not ITMAT or the Old Road Campus common rooms.
If you think people are making it up, ignore it or say so.


roubaixtuesday said:


> I would very much encourage you to beware of my credentials. Or those of anyone else, even Nobel Prize winners.
> I have some experience and skills relevant to help me, which I would rather not go into, but there is nothing I've posted that cannot be readily researched by anyone with good numeracy, basic science knowledge, and an ability to judge the reliability of sources . . .
> I am absolutely not an original researcher into COVID, not by a very long distance.


Same here. Superbly put, @rt, but I infer you have a firmer knowledge base foundation.


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## shep (14 Mar 2021)

I'm amazed why you all care so much?

The easing of lockdown will happen as and when Bozzer says so, in England anyway, whatever anyone on here thinks or the stats of various Internet sources is immaterial, why you're ars*d to quote/post all this is beyond me.


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## Craig the cyclist (14 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> @Pale Rider
> 
> I wanted to explain the different tests before going to herd immunity.
> 
> ...



It's posts like this that prompted me to ask your experience in the area. You see, it is conflating things, making things too simple, and is generally not accurate.
Line by line, from line 2.......

2. Correct
3. If some are immune and not infectable, they will not change the R as they won't become infected
4. There are several Covid strains out and about at the moment, this makes it sound like there is just one
5. ok
6. ok
7. Hmmm, possibly, but of the 5 people we are imagining, 3 may be immune or not susceptible. It is not a given that the other 4 will all become infected
8. So what was the point of 7?
9. But that doesn't mean the R has become 1, it just means only one person of those 5 has become infected, 32 others may have become infected on the train on the way in to work
10. No, the test is for antibodies, not immunity
11. Absolutely not! The level for herd immunity is nowhere near to be understood for Covid. 75% is not a Golden Figure for herd immunity, for example Measles needs around 95%, Polio nearer 80%, some flu strains as low as 13%!


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## the snail (15 Mar 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> It's posts like this that prompted me to ask your experience in the area. You see, it is conflating things, making things too simple, and is generally not accurate.
> Line by line, from line 2.......
> 
> 2. Correct
> ...


facepalm. By definition, if vaccination prevents infection, it reduces the r number


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## roubaixtuesday (15 Mar 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Line by line, from line 2.......



You'll have noted

_ [There are many caveats and details to this, but that's the gist of it]_

Or perhaps not.


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## Craig the cyclist (15 Mar 2021)

the snail said:


> facepalm. By definition, if vaccination prevents infection, it reduces the r number



Maybe go and have a re-read of the quoted post and of my reply?


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## Craig the cyclist (15 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> You'll have noted
> 
> _ [There are many caveats and details to this, but that's the gist of it]_
> 
> Or perhaps not.



Maybe you should have written

_[Most of this is factually incorrect, so not really the gist of it at all] _

Or perhaps not.

Writing things that are wrong isn't particularly helpful for anyone. I understand that you were trying to explain things in a simple way, but too much of it was simply wrong, especially point 11. If someone reads this, the obvious conclusion is that when the immunisation rate reaches 75% then we are all suddenly safe as herd immunity is reached and lockdown becomes irrelevant. Too many people do not understand the complexity of this, over-simplicity doesn't help.

There is soooooo much data around C19, that you can produce a number or a graph for absolutely any aspect of the outbreak you could possibly wish. My question around the professional backgrounds of those quoting all the stats is just a genuine query to get an idea of the level of understanding of those using the data. Especially in this pandemic, data is massively useful, but also hugely problematic if used incorrectly.


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## roubaixtuesday (15 Mar 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Most of this is factually incorrect



Please identify the incorrect parts. 

Thank you.


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## mjr (15 Mar 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> 3. If some are immune and not infectable, they will not change the R as they won't become infected


I suspect the above is confused, possibly confusing R (the observed reproduction rate) with R0 (the theoretical reproduction rate of the uncontrolled virus in a fresh population).

And seeing as you care, I'm a graduate statistician who did post-grad in it but has been working in IT for 15+ years, so literally "out of practice" and not completely up-to-date with latest thinking.



> 4. There are several Covid strains out and about at the moment, this makes it sound like there is just one


Arguably it was missing a "dominant" but this seems minor to me.



> 9. But that doesn't mean the R has become 1, it just means only one person of those 5 has become infected, 32 others may have become infected on the train on the way in to work


I think you've changed @roubaixtuesday's simplified example scenario there by adding a train.



> 11. Absolutely not! The level for herd immunity is nowhere near to be understood for Covid. 75% is not a Golden Figure for herd immunity, [...]


This much is correct, but some virology experts are estimating 75% based on experience with other coronaviruses. What's your expertise in virology?


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## Ajax Bay (15 Mar 2021)

*Herd immunity calculation*
*'R' Number* For an infectious disease, such as COVID-19,




is the _basic reproduction number_ of the disease: the average number of people an infected person goes on to infect, given that everyone in the population is susceptible to the disease with no restrictions. For COVID-19 B1.1.7 variant estimates vary: *let's go for



=3.*
NPIs (restrictions on behaviour etc) can reduce the 'R' - so for any time and dominant variant R = Rt. NB This Rt (as I shall use it) does not account for the number of people who are no longer susceptible to the disease: that's accounted for by the other calculations qv.
Only a proportion of 1-1/Rt of the population need to be immune to achieve herd immunity.

*Effectiveness* If a vaccine has an effectiveness of _x_%, then this means that _x_% of people who receive it are immune: not susceptible to the disease.
But let's take care to be clear what we mean by effectiveness.
#1) Immune so the virus does not cause illness: of course this means the subject does not transmit virus.
#2) Immune from serious illness. Catches C19 but asymptomatic or slight illness but the subject CAN transmit virus (transmissability will vary with subject, and this matters - I've treated it as factored into the 80% figure below).
Aiui the quoted efficacy figures from the RCT (Ph3) trials were for #2: Pfizer 94% and 70% for Ox-Az. Since these trials far more data are available and aiui effectiveness averages 89% (#2 version).
For herd immunity considerations, the severity of the illness 'doesn't matter'. So (leap of faith) let's assume for 'type #1 immunity' (which takes those people out of the transmission chain) *x = 80% effectiveness*. 20% of those vaccinated can still catch C19 and if they do they will be able to transmit the virus (assumed still at Rt). Note that effectiveness will be less until 7 days after the second dose, but I'm ignoring that for now - by mid-summer 32M will have had their second dose.

To achieve herd immunity we therefore require that_ P_% (the proportion) of people who are vaccinated times the effectiveness (x%) is at least 1-1/Rt of the population. In other words,
Substituting *Rt = 2.5 (slight restrictions)* gives _P_ needs to be greater than 0.6/x
For a vaccine that is 80% effective (#1) with no restrictions we therefore need to vaccinate (first dose) *at least 75% of the population (51M) to achieve herd immunity* (see Note below).
I estimate we will achieve that (4M a week) by 21 June.

Recall at its maximum in UK since May, Rt was at 1.6 on 2 Oct (90% confidence, upper bound) - this was a time when a few areas were in Tier 3, but for most, restrictions were 'light'. We might assume that by July the restrictions will be lighter still.
If we used Rt = 2 then the numbers needed to be vaccinated for herd immunity is 42M (63%).


Craig the cyclist said:


> the context for Covid is that we don't know the figure


Note: There is uncertainty about several (all?) of the figures I've chosen above, but to make some sense I have tried to choose 'reasonable ones'. Choosing Rt = 2.5 is certainly pessimistic but allows for a more transmissible dominant variant. Choosing 80% effectiveness is optimistic (but as the data come in we'll be able to narrow the uncertainty on that).
Conclusion: With these figures, to get to herd immunity in the summer we may need to retain some restrictions or Rt will push the herd immunity percentage up to a figure we (UK) can't reach.
@matticus - think you need to review your use of the expression "exponential", let alone "pretty".


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## mjr (15 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> *Effectiveness* If a vaccine has an effectiveness of _x_%, then this means that _x_% of people who receive it are immune: not susceptible to the disease.
> But let's take care to be clear what we mean by effectiveness.


Please do. The above incorrect definition contradicts the following correct definition:



> #1) Immune so the virus does not cause illness: of course this means the subject does not transmit virus.
> #2) Immune from serious illness. Catches C19 but asymptomatic or slight illness but the subject CAN transmit virus (transmissability will vary with subject, and this matters - I've treated it as factored into the 80% figure below).





> Aiui the quoted efficacy figures from the RCT (Ph3) trials were for #2: Pfizer 94% and 70% for Ox-Az. Since these trials far more data are available and aiui effectiveness averages 89% (#2 version).


Efficacy is different to effectiveness, so the first of those two sentences is largely irrelevant to the rest of the post.



> [...] Recall at its maximum in UK since May, Rt was at 1.6 on 2 Oct (90% confidence, upper bound) - this was a time when a few areas were in Tier 3, but for most, restrictions were 'light'. We might assume that by July the restrictions will be lighter still.
> If we used Rt = 2 then the numbers needed to be vaccinated for herd immunity is 42M (63%).


All legal restrictions lifted mid-June, we were told, so I feel you should go back to using R0 by July unless you think it's a change of plan, so I commend this Note to everyone:



> Note: There is uncertainty about several (all?) of the figures I've chosen above, but to make some sense I have tried to choose 'reasonable ones'. Choosing Rt = 2.5 is certainly pessimistic but allows for a more transmissible dominant variant. Choosing 80% effectiveness is optimistic (but as the data come in we'll be able to narrow the uncertainty on that).
> Conclusion: With these figures, to get to herd immunity in the summer we may need to retain some restrictions or Rt will push the herd immunity percentage up to a figure we (UK) can't reach.


I also note that then there's a big question of how we get from UK stabilisation to global immunity...


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## Ajax Bay (15 Mar 2021)

Thanks. Very useful. But not sure you've fully grasped it.


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## shep (15 Mar 2021)

Bloody Hell lads!
Fair play to you for persevering with this but is there a straightforward answer to this for us thicko's reading?
Is there an agreed % of people needed to have had this before immunity is reached?


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## Craig the cyclist (15 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> Bloody Hell lads!
> Fair play to you for persevering with this but is there a straightforward answer to this for us thicko's reading?
> *Is there an agreed % of people needed to have had this before immunity is reached*?



Absolutely not, so ignore all the stats in this thread, apart from this one.......

100% of the statisticians presenting endless data on this thread about the level required to achieve herd immunity are wrong.


----------



## classic33 (15 Mar 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Absolutely not, so ignore all the stats in this thread, apart from this one.......
> 
> 100% of the statisticians presenting endless data on this thread about the level required to achieve herd immunity are wrong.


Prove that last statement!


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## mjr (15 Mar 2021)

I can disprove it:



Craig the cyclist said:


> Absolutely not, so ignore all the stats in this thread, apart from this one.......
> 
> 100% of the statisticians presenting endless data on this thread about the level required to achieve herd immunity are wrong.


So even me, who agreed with you (and the WHO) that it's not yet known, is wrong?


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## mjr (15 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> Is there an agreed % of people needed to have had this before immunity is reached?


Not yet.


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## mjr (15 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> I'm amazed why you all care so much?
> 
> The easing of lockdown will happen as and when Bozzer says so, in England anyway, whatever anyone on here thinks or the stats of various Internet sources is immaterial, why you're ars*d to quote/post all this is beyond me.


That's rather surprising U-turn from someone who asked "does it matter what rules are in place?" and suggested that it's for each person to make their own decision about what's OK and what's unwise to do. I think this discussion is basically loads of people trying to figure out what they think will be wise when and under what conditions. Surely you should be supporting them trying to figure it out for themselves?


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## shep (15 Mar 2021)

What U turn?
I'll be out at the 1st opportunity, which is down to the Government, others can please themselves.


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## roubaixtuesday (15 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> *Herd immunity calculation*
> *'R' Number* For an infectious disease, such as COVID-19,
> View attachment 578760
> is the _basic reproduction number_ of the disease: the average number of people an infected person goes on to infect, given that everyone in the population is susceptible to the disease with no restrictions. For COVID-19 B1.1.7 variant estimates vary: *let's go for
> ...



I think that's all very reasonable.

Couple of comments:

1) It's not clear to what extent COVID is seasonal, but most people seem to think at least somewhat. So a further wave may come in the Autumn rather than summer as a result.

2) The %immune figures are more challenging to reach if we don't vaccinate children, or not all of them (I don't know what plans are, trials ongoing, ethics unclear to me, what will takeup be?).

The modelling done by SPI-M seems to indicate it's very likely there will be a further wave at some point as a result of these, when all restrictions are lifted.


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## Craig the cyclist (15 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I have posted nothing that disagrees with that, and have clarified it on a number of occasions to boot.
> 
> You're arguing with yourself here.



You did though. You then went on to clarify which is very helpful, but initially you said the 75% figure which appeared to be a FACT. Although you did clarify, and have done a couple of times since, after I picked you up on it.

Everyone needs to stop doing home analysis on this stuff and referencing bodies and publications as though those stats have actually come from those bodies or publications. The figures are produced officially come with a ton of background data which you don't have access to.

Look, all I am saying is please beware, one thing we all know is that a supposition on the internet can become a fact on Facebook in the blink of an eye, and out of context analysis does no-one any favours at all. I am not having a dig at anyone, just asking for some thought.


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## roubaixtuesday (15 Mar 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> You did though



We disagree on this. Let's drop it.



Craig the cyclist said:


> Everyone needs to stop doing home analysis on this stuff



I think people like @Ajax Bay working through back of the fag packet calculations is entirely laudable - it builds understanding. If they claim they know better than official bodies - sure, call them out - _but nobody is doing that here. _At least as far as I've seen.



Craig the cyclist said:


> I am not having a dig at anyone



Lol.


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## classic33 (15 Mar 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> You did though. You then went on to clarify which is very helpful, but initially you said the 75% figure which appeared to be a FACT. Although you did clarify, and have done a couple of times since, after I picked you up on it.
> 
> Everyone needs to stop doing home analysis on this stuff and referencing bodies and publications as though those stats have actually come from those bodies or publications. The figures are produced officially come with a ton of background data which you don't have access to.
> 
> Look, all I am saying is please beware, one thing we all know is that a supposition on* the internet can become a fact on Facebook* in the blink of an eye, and out of context analysis does no-one any favours at all. I am not having a dig at anyone, just asking for some thought.


The second is reliant on the first for it's existence, is it not.


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## Ajax Bay (15 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> Fair play to you for persevering with this but is there a straightforward answer to this for us thicko's reading?
> Is there an agreed % of people needed to have had this before immunity is reached?


When you say 'immunity is reached' I'll take it you mean 'herd immunity'.
That'll be a 'nobut'.
Will be at least 60%. Might be more than 100% (ie we can never get there). I've offered some figures in my post above.
And then there is the international dimension. I expect if the UK does achieve 'herd immunity' that the challenging task will be to somehow control importation of infection (in particular VoC) by a combo of restriction on travel and travellers, and T&T measures focused on outbreaks. Side note: For British Isles integrity we need to get a few million doses over to Ireland.


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## shep (15 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> When you say 'immunity is reached' I'll take it you mean 'herd immunity'.
> That'll be a 'nobut'.
> Will be at least 60%. Might be more than 100% (ie we can never get there). I've offered some figures in my post above.
> And then there is the international dimension. I expect if the UK does achieve 'herd immunity' that the challenging task will be to somehow control importation of infection (in particular VoC) by a combo of restriction on travel and travellers, and T&T measures focused on outbreaks. Side note: For British Isles integrity we need to get a few million doses over to Ireland.


It was herd, apologies and thanks.


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## Ajax Bay (15 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Comments:
> 1) It's not clear to what extent COVID is seasonal, but most people seem to think at least somewhat. So a further wave may come in the Autumn rather than summer as a result.
> 2) The %immune figures are more challenging to reach if we don't vaccinate children, or not all of them (I don't know what plans are, trials ongoing, ethics unclear to me, what will takeup be?).
> The modelling done by SPI-M seems to indicate it's very likely there will be a further wave at some point as a result of these, when all restrictions are lifted.


Agree (1) but I would spin the seasonal effect differently. There is some evidence that 'R' for C19 is less in the summer (here's hoping). It was between 0.7 and 0.9 all through June and July last year but we have the B1.1.7 variant now which is ?40% more transmissible. If it is then this depresses Rt (I acknowledge that there'll be upward pressure on Rt from progressive relaxation of restrictions). This would allow herd immunity a little earlier. We could expect prevalence to fall to levels similar to last summer (July/August).
By the autumn, when Rt seasonally increases, a high percentage of the population is vaccinated and herd immunity is maintained because of the reduced number susceptible.
When there is a third wave, it will be a wavelet. Because of high levels of vaccination in the more vulnerable (JCVI 1-9 ie over 50s plus plus - 95% plus take up and 90+% effectiveness #2), the numbers with severe (needing hospitalisation) illness will be much reduced (thank goodness) and the NHS will be able to continue its services including all the elective work without adverse C19 effect.
2) Pfizer can be used to vaccinate down to 16, aiui: the others' lower age limit is 18 at present. There are no data to offer evidence of safety or efficacy in ages below those. There are about 12.3M under 16s. If uptake averages 90+% in adults (surveys suggest this intent) the vaccination programme will reach 49M 'over 16' arms (by mid June on my maths). This may be enough for herd immunity (73% of total population).
Trials of all 3 vaccines currently in use in UK are ongoing: Pfizer started trials with teens down to 12 in October and Moderna started theirs in December. Trials with Ox-AZ have started on a small group (?300) of children in UK aged 6-17 to see if the AstraZeneca gives that age cohort a good level of immunity to Covid-19 (and checks for safety). Janssen(J&J) started trials on 12-17s last year and are set to continue that trial right down to tinies.
3) SPI-M-O supporting paper (11 Feb) to easing restrictions decision (announced 22 Feb) - the option chosen was modelled as the green line scenario (5a) (below)(shading shows uncertainty).


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## roubaixtuesday (15 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Agree (1) but I would spin the seasonal effect differently. There is some evidence that 'R' for C19 is less in the summer (here's hoping). If it is then this depresses Rt (I acknowledge that there'll be upward pressure on Rt from progressive relaxation of restrictions). This would allow herd immunity a little earlier. We could expect prevalence to fall to levels similar to last summer (July/August).
> By the autumn, when Rt seasonally increases, a high percentage of the population is vaccinated and herd immunity is maintained.
> When there is a third wave, it will be a wavelet. Because of high levels of vaccination in the more vulnerable (JCVI 1-9 ie over 50s plus plus - 95% plus take up and 90+% effectiveness #2), the numbers with severe (needing hospitalisation) illness will be much reduced (thank goodness) and the NHS will be able to continue its services including all the elective work without adverse C19 effect.
> 2) Pfizer can be used to vaccinate down to 16, aiui: the others' lower age limit is 18 at present. There are no data to offer evidence of safety or efficacy in ages below those. There are about 12.3M under 16s. If uptake averages 90+% in adults (surveys suggest this intent) the vaccination programme will reach 49M 'over 16' arms (by mid June on my maths). This may be enough for herd immunity (73% of total population).
> ...



I think that's all very fair; whether a wave or a wavelet is very hard to know, reflected in the huge uncertainty bounds on that plot.

Hope for a wavelet, plan for a wave would be my view.


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## lazybloke (15 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> <snip>
> 2) Pfizer can be used to vaccinate down to 16, aiui: the others' lower age limit is 18 at present. There are no data to offer evidence of safety or efficacy in ages below those. There are about 12.3M under 16s. If uptake averages 90+% in adults (surveys suggest this intent) the vaccination programme will reach 49M 'over 16' arms (by mid June on my maths). This may be enough for herd immunity (73% of total population).
> <snip>


Herd immunity is presumably most effective when the unvaccinated are evenly dispersed within a population group.
But children congregate in large groups; maybe 1000 or 2000 in each school; 30 in close contact in each class (6 hours a day, 5 days a week).
Infection rates might be dropping now, but what will happen this autumn if children still haven't been vaccinated?

I guess masks and social distancing are here to stay.


And for anyone thinking "but children don't get ill with covid", surely best to get a jab into them (one clinical trials complete satisfactorily), so that they do at least have _some _protection against possible nasty future variants.


----------



## Ajax Bay (15 Mar 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> . . listen to The World Health Organisation?
> "The proportion of the population that must be vaccinated against COVID-19 to begin inducing herd immunity is not known. The percentage of people who need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies with each disease."


Expanded and actual quote: "The percentage of people who need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies with each disease. For example, herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated ['R' for measles is between 12 and 18 - mega-transmissible]. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated. For polio, the threshold is about 80%. The proportion of the population that must be vaccinated against COVID-19 to begin inducing herd immunity is not known."
Whilst the upper bound for R0 estimates for the current dominant C19 variant in UK (B1.1.7) is 4.5, the difference with measles is that the two-dose MMR vaccine is 97% effective against measles (and 88% effective against mumps), preventing both catching the disease and transmitting it.


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## mjr (16 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think that's all very fair; whether a wave or a wavelet is very hard to know, reflected in the huge uncertainty bounds on that plot.
> 
> Hope for a wavelet, plan for a wave would be my view.


It is unlikely to be a wavelet because we will not start from zero and it won't go negative (resurrections?). The term is being misused.

We've had three waves already, too.


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## matticus (16 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> We've had three waves already, too.


What definition are you using?


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## roubaixtuesday (16 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> It is unlikely to be a wavelet



Well, the modelling shows very wide uncertainty and the clear potential for both a large wave and a very small wavelet.

And I guess it depends to an extent on the measure (cases, deaths or hospitalisations) and how big a wavelet is before it becomes a wave.

So I've no idea why you're so certain.


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## mjr (16 Mar 2021)

matticus said:


> What definition are you using?


An epidemic wave is the area between minima of less than two thirds of a peak that meets some minimum height requirement.


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## mjr (16 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Well, the modelling shows very wide uncertainty and the clear potential for both a large wave and a very small wavelet.
> 
> And I guess it depends to an extent on the measure (cases, deaths or hospitalisations) and how big a wavelet is before it becomes a wave.
> 
> So I've no idea why you're so certain.


A wavelet is a blip, as seen in medicine on a heart monitor. It goes below zero, which cases, deaths and hospitalisations cannot. A wavelet is not simply a small wave.


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## matticus (16 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> An epidemic wave is the area between minima of less than two thirds of a peak that meets some minimum height requirement.


ok, that makes sense, but:
- what is the magic minimum height?!?
- and 2/3rds sounds a bit arbitrary, is there a standard for this?


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## shep (16 Mar 2021)

And they're off!!


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## roubaixtuesday (16 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> A wavelet is a blip, as seen in medicine on a heart monitor. It goes below zero, which cases, deaths and hospitalisations cannot. A wavelet is not simply a small wave.



Ah, that's proper pedantry.

By all means ask @Ajax Bay but I think you know what they meant.


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## classic33 (16 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> A wavelet is a blip, as seen in medicine on a heart monitor. It goes below zero, which cases, deaths and hospitalisations cannot. A wavelet is not simply a small wave.


A bit like this





And hospitalizations can go below zero, they used to call them discharges.


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## mjr (16 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Ah, that's proper pedantry.
> 
> By all means ask @Ajax Bay but I think you know what they meant.


Yes, I'm fairly sure that many users of the term "wavelet" are hoping to marginalise, minimise and dismiss the impact of the fourth wave before it happens, to reduce the impact on Johnson's government and keep the feelgood factor of the vaccine success rather than remind people of the extra deaths resulting from repeated balls-ups of testing, tracing and restrictions or the chumocracy PPE contracts and so on.

It is and isn't pedantry. If people redefine well-defined terms then it causes confusion, especially looking back at historical publications, and I don't want to stand idly by and let people do that about a matter of life and death.


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## roubaixtuesday (16 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Yes, I'm fairly sure that many users of the term "wavelet" are hoping to marginalise, minimise and dismiss the impact of the fourth wave before it happens,



I shall await @Ajax Bay 's response to that accusation with interest!


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## mjr (16 Mar 2021)

classic33 said:


> A bit like this
> View attachment 578917
> 
> And hospitalizations can go below zero, they used to call them discharges.


Isn't that admissions going below zero? I guess it depends if "hospitalisation" is the number hospitalised or the number being hospitalised. Taking a cue from the "Vaccinations" counter, I was taking it to be the number currently hospitalised.


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## mjr (16 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I shall await @Ajax Bay 's response to that accusation with interest!


That's your accusation not mine. Comrade Bay was ignored yesterday due to a spate of posts obfuscated by *intermitt*ent bold, varying height and no line breaks, but I'll take them off again now for a bit...


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## roubaixtuesday (16 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> That's your accusation not mine. Comrade Bay was ignored yesterday due to a spate of posts obfuscated by *intermitt*ent bold, varying height and no line breaks, but I'll take them off again now for a bit...



Blimey. Tough crowd!


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## Ajax Bay (16 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I shall await @Ajax Bay 's response to that accusation with interest!


To be frank, I thought '*wavelet*' might get a nibble. Result! I am, among other recreational activities, a sailor, and use: F*Big wave, wave, and wavelet in descending order of size (and effect on the hull). If I'd known that 'wavelet' was a "well-defined term" and using might "cause confusion" then perhaps I should have said a 'slight upward fluctuation'. Perhaps @mjr could constructively offer a term that describes that in whatever metric chosen.
I enjoy posting on CycleChat and appreciate the effort other posters make with their posts.
Compared to the two ghastly, 'NHS straining but not breaking' deadly waves peaking (hospitalisation measured in bed occupancy by C19 +ve patients) on 11 Apr 2020 and 18 Jan 2021, any future fluctuation where dC/dt = 0 and d^2C/dt^2 (C = cases) is less than zero will have a very low peak (see the graph below - 5a green line as an example modelled for SPI-M-O). The UK's national governments' decision on a phased relaxation of the many restrictions (NPIs), the stated intent to be guided by data as opposed to sticking to dates (with the 'not earlier than' caveat) and the accelerating progress of the vaccination programme all mean the peak of an upward fluctuation will be low. An emerging VoC may disrupt that model.
As @rt roughly said "hope for a wavelet; plan for a (low) wave".




My use of *bold* in my herd immunity calculation post was to highlight specific key assumptions about effectiveness, vaccine take-up, R and the result.
And as for criticising the use of a smaller *font* for one letter, I thought "Rt" was better than "Rt". R0 is the 'base' R for C19. Some (well one at least) may not think so. Line break? No, me neither.


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## Ajax Bay (16 Mar 2021)

The _Office for National Statistics (ONS)_ have released the latest data on deaths in England and Wales, including deaths from COVID-19, up to 5 March.




I would like to use a different metric than 'deaths' but it's the best one to use to reflect impact.
Deaths in the first week of March are 3.7% above average (2015-19) and we might expect that the number of deaths will fall below the five-year average in the next week or two.
Pretty clear signs of effects of vaccinations on deaths. Covid-19-related deaths in over 70s fell by almost a third in just the most recent week, while deaths in those aged up to 69 fell by a much smaller amount (17%). It’s impossible to be sure that these differences are all due to vaccination, but they must be to a very considerable extent. With vaccination of the over 70s all complete by 14 Feb and uptake at 96+%, we might hope for even more positive signs the next time these data are published as the vaccine will have had time to generate full (for first dose) effectiveness.
The virus continues to cause a large number of deaths each week, though. Total deaths in England and Wales in the latest week = 11,592, and of those 2,105 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)". In contrast, since October deaths from causes other than Covid-19 are below average – latest week about 1,700 below. Lockdowns reduce other infections as well as Covid-19. Also non-Covid-19 deaths will be reduced compared to the average because some people, who might have died from some other cause about now, were sadly taken by Covid-19 at an earlier date.


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## PK99 (17 Mar 2021)

Not looking good over the Channel


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## Ajax Bay (17 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> I'm happy to go out once cases are below 0.1%/week, if spaced and outdoors, so I would already be out if there was anywhere open! I probably would not go indoors or use a train or bus unless all areas en route were a bit lower than that, maybe down to 0.03%/week.


Can I check that your 0.1%/week is 1/1000 of the UK population of 67M (ie 67,000) new cases reported per week?
UK is on about 40,000 now; less than 6000 new cases a day. I think it will be a long time before the UK gets below 0.03% = 3000 new cases (positive C19 test) per day (happy for that to turn out wrong). I note that testing has almost tripled since mid-February: main driver is secondary schools testing all their pupils and staff (?6M) with LFTs twice a week.
The difference is that by mid-April very few of those cases will become severely ill as those catching it are either the vaccinated but unlucky 10% or they are unvaccinated (under 50s say, with no UHC) but, as a cohort, very much less vulnerable.


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## shep (17 Mar 2021)

Glad you asked that, I was hoping for something like 'when all adults are vaccinated ' or when there are X amount of new cases etc.

So about 3000 new cases per day to go outside or to the Pub inside for example?


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## deptfordmarmoset (17 Mar 2021)

PK99 said:


> View attachment 579098
> 
> 
> Not looking good over the Channel


7 months way above Germany, 3 weeks below, crisis in Europe? How many Brits in excess of Germans died in those 7 months?


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## PK99 (17 Mar 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> 7 months way above Germany, 3 weeks below, crisis in Europe? How many Brits in excess of Germans died in those 7 months?



The point was about current trends not past history.


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## mjr (17 Mar 2021)

shep said:


> Glad you asked that, I was hoping for something like 'when all adults are vaccinated ' or when there are X amount of new cases etc.


Asked what?

And we're never going to get all adults vaccinated. Some just cannot take it.



> So about 3000 new cases per day to go outside or to the Pub inside for example?


Depends on the population of the area, obviously, and different thresholds for outside and for the much riskier indoors.


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## shep (17 Mar 2021)

Asked you about the % thing, its good of you to reply but I still have difficulty figuring out when YOU would feel comfortable going to the Pub for example. You mention area population, clearly I mean where YOU live as its you I'm asking. 

I realise you're very numbers driven so difficult to give a direct answer I suppose, to me l'll be going wherever I can as soon as I can so have difficulty grasping what needs to happen before someone like you will feel happy. 

Cheers.


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## Ajax Bay (17 Mar 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> 7 months way above Germany, 3 weeks below, crisis in Europe? How many Brits in excess of Germans died in those 7 months?


Since you ask, in the last 6 months Germany have recorded 65k deaths involving C19 whereas in UK the figure is 82k (usual caveats about differences in reporting standards). Germany's population is 125% of the UK's. The current daily death rate is 209 in Germany and 120 in UK. Tragically, because Germany's case rate is rising fast (up 30% in a week and accelerating), the death rate there will rise - we can't estimate how far - unhindered by vaccination which is still minimal. In UK though we might assume deaths per day will drop below 100 any day now and will drop to below the levels seen last summer (~20 per day). All the vulnerable cohorts will have been vaccinated so even if a percentage catch C19, few will develop serious illness, let alone die of C19.
It is quite possible that the cumulative deaths in Germany will exceed those in UK by the end of April.
I take no pleasure in looking at the lives already lost and suggesting this tragic loss of life in the future. But does that analysis change your deduction, if any?


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## mjr (18 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Since you ask, in the last 6 months Germany have recorded 65k deaths involving C19 whereas in UK the figure is 82k (usual caveats about differences in reporting standards).


Why only the last six months?


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## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> It is quite possible that the cumulative deaths in Germany will exceed those in UK by the end of April.



I've long thought our huge vaccine advantage will even out death numbers across the densely populated European countries.

My bet with @roubaixtuesday that UK and Germany deaths will be roughly equal is looking safer, although we have yet to agree on a day of reckoning.

In the spirit of Sturgeon, I shall only agree to that day being on one which I'm ahead.


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## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Why only the last six months?


If you look at the John Hopkins University stats on the ourworldindata.org, which runs from 5/3/2020 i.e. just over a year, the figures are: UK 126K; Germany 74K.


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## matticus (18 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Why only the last six months?


I think he was answering this question:


deptfordmarmoset said:


> 7 months way above Germany, 3 weeks below, crisis in Europe? How many Brits in excess of Germans died in those 7 months?


(and yes I know 7 isn't 6 ... )


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## roubaixtuesday (18 Mar 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> My bet with @roubaixtuesday that UK and Germany deaths will be roughly equal is looking safer



Lol to that! Name your date for the reckoning - I'll take whatever you're happy with.

The bet was the Germany would have less than the UK per capita.

Blackcurrant jam is my favourite, but if you have damson, that would be a close second.


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## Unkraut (18 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Tragically, because Germany's case rate is rising fast (up 30% in a week and accelerating), the death rate there will rise - we can't estimate how far - unhindered by vaccination which is still minimal.


Minimal might be a tad exaggerated. The total has just gone through the 10 million mark. It is starting to lower the death rate, which at least in the second wave was still 40% in care homes. That's a disgrace, as the idea was to test everyone entering them, which clearly hasn't been fully implemented. 

There are measures which if taken can hold the third wave in check, and it is a race against time to get more people vaccinated. I believe there should be an AZ decision today, but it will be difficult to win back acceptance for it.

The current figures are in https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html

The map has the percentages for each state/Land, the graph below has the cumulative total to date (just about legible!) and the graph below that the percentage of the population - light blue first dose and darker blue second dose.

Living here it is extremely frustrating that this level of vaccination might have been achieved a month or more earlier and made the third wave less dangerous.


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## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2021)

matticus said:


> I think he was answering this question:
> 
> (and yes I know 7 isn't 6 ... )


Ok, thanks.


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## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Lol to that! Name your date for the reckoning - I'll take whatever you're happy with.
> 
> The bet was the Germany would have less than the UK per capita.
> 
> Blackcurrant jam is my favourite, but if you have damson, that would be a close second.



Agreed on the per capita, but picking a day which is fair to both sides is not easy, because unlike a horse race, there is (regrettably) no defined finishing line for the virus or even likely there will ever be one.

Thus waiting for the last Covid deaths to be registered in both countries is not an option.

I had some time in June in mind on the basis that's when most, if not all, official restrictions will have ended, and deaths, if not those who catch the virus, should be slowed to a trickle.


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## Ajax Bay (18 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Why only the last six months?


I chose 6 because in both countries the rate was flat in mid September (mid March minus 6 months) and before the second wave started. I thought @dm's "7" months arbitrary. I looked for a sensible 'start' to the relevant winter wave.
The 7 month figures are: Germany: 64,566 and UK: 84,371. I took the UK 6 month figure from the gov.uk website.
HTH


Unkraut said:


> Minimal might be a tad exaggerated. The total has just gone through the 10 million mark. It is starting to lower the death rate,


In Germany first doses are at 8.2%. To give an idea of that, the UK reached 8.2% first doses on 21 Jan. Is there evidence that "it's starting to lower the death rate"?


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## roubaixtuesday (18 Mar 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Agreed on the per capita, but picking a day which is fair to both sides is not easy, because unlike a horse race, there is (regrettably) no defined finishing line for the virus or even likely there will ever be one.
> 
> Thus waiting for the last Covid deaths to be registered in both countries is not an option.
> 
> I had some time in June in mind on the basis that's when most, if not all, official restrictions will have ended, and deaths, if not those who catch the virus, should be slowed to a trickle.



I'm very, very confident the precise date won't matter.

Midsummer?


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## roubaixtuesday (18 Mar 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Agreed on the per capita, but picking a day which is fair to both sides is not easy, because unlike a horse race, there is (regrettably) no defined finishing line for the virus or even likely there will ever be one.
> 
> Thus waiting for the last Covid deaths to be registered in both countries is not an option.
> 
> I had some time in June in mind on the basis that's when most, if not all, official restrictions will have ended, and deaths, if not those who catch the virus, should be slowed to a trickle.



Germany needs to have more deaths in the next three months than in the rest of the pandemic together in order for me to be buttering bread.


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## Ajax Bay (18 Mar 2021)

Suggest you butter that bread @Pale Rider. Slightly tasteless metric to bet on, I hope you don't mind me saying.


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## roubaixtuesday (18 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Suggest you butter that bread @Pale Rider. Slightly tasteless metric to bet on, I hope you don't mind me saying.



A very fair point.


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## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm very, very confident the precise date won't matter.
> 
> Midsummer?



Agreed.

Midsummer's Day is June 24 this year.



Ajax Bay said:


> Suggest you butter that bread @Pale Rider. Slightly tasteless metric to bet on, I hope you don't mind me saying.



@roubaixtuesday suggested the bet clearly in the spirit of knockabout forum discussion and I accepted it in the same spirit.

It does rather look like I'm on to a loser, but I shall still be interested to see how much of a poor second I come.


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## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I chose 6 because in both countries the rate was flat in mid September (mid March minus 6 months) and before the second wave started. I thought @dm's "7" months arbitrary. I looked for a sensible 'start' to the relevant winter wave.
> The 7 month figures are: Germany: 64,566 and UK: 84,371. I took the UK 6 month figure from the gov.uk website.
> HTH


The 7 months reference was taken from the graph posted by @PK99 - which runs from Sept 1 to the present - with 7 months of persistently worse figures for the UK than Germany before swapping position earlier this month. But apparently we're not supposed to look at the 7 months....


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## Ajax Bay (18 Mar 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The 7 months reference was taken from the graph posted by @PK99 - which runs from Sept 1 to the present - with 7 months of persistently worse figures for the UK than Germany before swapping position earlier this month. But apparently we're not supposed to look at the 7 months....


I hear why you selected '7' (cue dancing on a pin head by me) but there is a slight maths challenge: 1 Sep to 4 Mar, when the lines on @PK99's (FT/JH) graph Ge/UK case lines crossed, is not 7 months: it's 6.


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## PK99 (18 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I hear why you selected '7' (cue dancing on a pin head by me) but there is a slight maths challenge: 1 Sep to 4 Mar, when the lines on @PK99's (FT/JH) graph Ge/UK case lines crossed, is not 7 months: it's 6.



Discussion following my post https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6350332
has rambled off into a not very useful cul de sac of retrospection and who said what when...

The point I was making was that whereas the pattern to date has been similar across the countries shown with timing and amplitude of peaks varying but overall moving more or less in lockstep, the plot seems to show a break in the pattern - with UK no longer showing the same overall trend. From the original: "Not looking good over the Channel" where they seem to be in lockstep at the start of another peak


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## mjr (18 Mar 2021)

PK99 said:


> The point I was making was that whereas the pattern to date has been similar across the countries shown with timing and amplitude of peaks varying but overall moving more or less in lockstep, the plot seems to show a break in the pattern - with UK no longer showing the same overall trend. From the original: "Not looking good over the Channel" where they seem to be in lockstep at the start of another peak


That doesn't seem accurate to me. EU countries are all over the freaking range when it comes to trend (omitting some smaller-population countries for ease of reading, including UK to show how similar we are to Spain and Portugal):





(edited to replace graphic because I omitted Hungary)


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## PK99 (18 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> That doesn't seem accurate to me. EU countries are all over the freaking range when it comes to trend (omitting some smaller-population countries for ease of reading, including UK to show how similar we are to Spain and Portugal):
> View attachment 579205
> 
> 
> (edited to replace graphic because I omitted Hungary)



Interesting plot. It highlights exactly the point I was making, thank you!

Over the channel - case numbers are increasing

In the UK (and on the Iberian peninsula), case numbers are falling.

Germany seems from this plot to be out of step with its neighbours. But the contrast in patterns is stark


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## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I hear why you selected '7' (cue dancing on a pin head by me) but there is a slight maths challenge: 1 Sep to 4 Mar, when the lines on @PK99's (FT/JH) graph Ge/UK case lines crossed, is not 7 months: it's 6.


Fair enough. I realised that I was all at sixes and sevens with my months while I was catching up on lost sleep just now. 6 months and a week or so...?


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## mjr (18 Mar 2021)

PK99 said:


> Interesting plot. It highlights exactly the point I was making, thank you!


It might highlight some point you wanted to make. It clearly shows that they are not "in lockstep".



> Over the channel - case numbers are increasing
> 
> In the UK (and on the Iberian peninsula), case numbers are falling.
> 
> Germany seems from this plot to be out of step with its neighbours. But the contrast in patterns is stark


If the point is that case numbers are increasing in countries where they are increasing and falling in countries where they are falling, that's fairly safe, but the graph misleads about the channel now because now you deleted France, where numbers have levelled off again.

Here is a plot of Germany and its land neighbours, 7-day confirmed case averages for the last 3 months. Denmark and Switzerland track it most closely, but who is influencing who?


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## PK99 (18 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> It might highlight some point you wanted to make. It clearly shows that they are not "in lockstep".
> 
> 
> If the point is that case numbers are increasing in countries where they are increasing and falling in countries where they are falling, that's fairly safe, but the graph misleads about the channel now because now you deleted France, where numbers have levelled off again.
> ...



Thanks for the introduction to the data analysis tool you are using. It's very good and much better the the FT link I have been using.

This plot is illuminating:

I've taken it from 1 July as before then testing everywhere was pretty hit and miss.

Key observations:

EU & UK were tracking similarly till Early December with the outbreak seemingly under control.

The take-off of the New (Kent) variant in Early December took the UK away from the EU pattern, but at the same time the EU case rate stopped falling

Since then, the difference in the trajectories is dramatic. Time will tell whether the EU pattern is a ripple or the start of a new major peak







This more tangled plot reveals some of the fine grain texture hidden by the EU summary data in the first plot


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## Kajjal (18 Mar 2021)

It’s a useful plot which shows the countries that have struggled more such as Italy with a significantly older population and Belgium whilst being a country is very regionally devolved.


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## mjr (18 Mar 2021)

PK99 said:


> The take-off of the New (Kent) variant in Early December took the UK away from the EU pattern, but at the same time the EU case rate stopped falling


That's probably part of it but I think (and this could be checked on the FT lockdown tracker, which Our World In Data doesn't have IIRC) that EU countries locked down harder than the UK's "lockdown lite" in November, didn't lift in December like the UK did and I'm not sure any had a Christmas Day relaxation. As I posted at the time, I also think some people here in the UK stopped taking so much care once vaccines were approved, and they were mostly younger people who probably still aren't being vaccinated. Time will tell whether that was worthwhile or not, but those Nov/Dec differences seem to be where we really diverged.

News from abroad: France and Belgium TV news both seem to be blaming their latest cases (increasing in Belgium where non-victual shops have reopened, roughly steady in France despite tougher restrictions) on the new variants spreading through schools, then being taken home to parents who generally are too young to have been vaccinated yet, who then take it to work before symptoms show if at all.  It seems French PM Castex will outline new restrictions at 6pm UK time tonight. https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/18/french-pm-jean-castex-expected-to-outline-new-virus-restrictions - The Belgian equivalent of COBRA meets tomorrow but leaks today suggest masking more years of children and maybe keeping some years doing online classes.

On a brighter note, it seems Rutte has "won" the elections in NL, with his pandemic management probably outweighing a scandal about institutional bias (looks like racism but officially that wasn't declared yet so that a criminal investigation could proceed, as I understand it) and mismanagement at the Tax and Customs Administration. The election result looks like it will enable the previous centre-right coalition (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, Christian Democratic Appeal, Democrats 66 and Christian Union) to continue with a stronger but still slim majority (in the region of 80 out of 150), if it agrees. Or a centre-right-left coalition seems possible but more difficult and seems unlikely.

Anyway, maybe a new NL government can take measures that don't get overturned by the courts for trying to use regulations when legislation was needed and they can actually stop the rise!


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## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2021)

Virus impact has got serious with Greggs declaring their first loss in many years.

Pies and pasties are no trivial matter in the north east, but I'm reassured the company still intends to open 100 new shops this year.


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## mjr (18 Mar 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Virus impact has got serious with Greggs declaring their first loss in many years.
> 
> Pies and pasties are no trivial matter in the north east, but I'm reassured the company still intends to open 100 new shops this year.


I don't know about elsewhere (of course), but they've ballsed-up locally by doing what looks like the bare minimum needed to avoid being closed down, but still indoor queuing and not much in the way of screening, whereas many other cafes (including some chains) have moved to selling through the doorway, often with menus and samples displayed in the window by the queue. All of the three local Greggs's that I remember have competitors nearby, who I think are busier than them now. I think people don't want to queue indoors in a hot shop during this pandemic, even in winter.

It's merely a temporary blip to a firm their size, I expect, but I wonder if they would reconfigure their branches more with the benefit of hindsight.


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## classic33 (18 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> I don't know about elsewhere (of course), but they've ballsed-up locally by doing what looks like the bare minimum needed to avoid being closed down, but still indoor queuing and not much in the way of screening, whereas many other cafes (including some chains) have moved to selling through the doorway, often with menus and samples displayed in the window by the queue. All of the three local Greggs's that I remember have competitors nearby, who I think are busier than them now. I think people don't want to queue indoors in a hot shop during this pandemic, even in winter.
> 
> It's merely a temporary blip to a firm their size, I expect, but I wonder if they would reconfigure their branches more with the benefit of hindsight.


There should be a sign on display near the door, which states how many people are allowed in at any one time.

Company policy, so should be complied with.


----------



## mjr (18 Mar 2021)

classic33 said:


> There should be a sign on display near the door, which states how many people are allowed in at any one time.
> 
> Company policy, so should be complied with.


Oh I expect it's allowed to try to make people queue indoors, but that doesn't mean people like it.

Also, some of the numbers on posters seem incredibly high. The nearest mall pharmacy says 42 are allowed on its poster but it only has one door and the internal flow is a conflicted nonsense so it never got near that in the before times. 🤷


----------



## classic33 (18 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Oh I expect it's allowed to try to make people queue indoors, but that doesn't mean people like it.
> 
> Also, some of the numbers on posters seem incredibly high. The nearest mall pharmacy says 42 are allowed on its poster but it only has one door and the internal flow is a conflicted nonsense so it never got near that in the before times. 🤷


My reply was about Gregg's alone, their company policy. If the staff aren't keeping to it, they're not slow in getting s new team in.

The queue also stays outside.


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## Unkraut (18 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> In Germany first doses are at 8.2%. To give an idea of that, the UK reached 8.2% first doses on 21 Jan. Is there evidence that "it's starting to lower the death rate"?


Why do these comparisons with Germany seem to matter so much? It's hardly comparing like with like. The essential difference since the vaccines were authorised is supply, with as we all know late EU ordering and a massive drop in the supply contracted by AZ. I would still like to know to what extent this is cause and effect.

The start of a drop in the death rate has been noted on the news. A reasonable number of over 80's have now been vaccinated, in some places all of those in care homes. This is where the fatality rate has been highest, and it is starting to fall. This may be reversed if the newer versions of the virus get out of control amongst the more general population. 


Ajax Bay said:


> Slightly tasteless metric to bet on, I hope you don't mind me saying.


I took you to mean the betting whether the German death rate may yet catch up with Britain, in which case I would agree. Not something to be celebrated, I hope no-one in Britain is planning a party if it ever happens. 

I have seen no Schadenfreude here over what has occurred in Britain, some admiration for getting on with vaccination in contrast to ... , but a dislike of Boris Johnson as a 'populist'. I saw a clip of him in Parliament talking about 'helping our European friends and partners' over the vaccine supply when he has spent the last few years doing all he can to destroy that, and it is difficult to take!

AZ will be injected again as of tomorrow, but the health minister's long waffling explanation brought to mind the proverb _where words are many transgression is not lacking_.


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## roubaixtuesday (18 Mar 2021)

Unkraut said:


> I took you to mean the betting whether the German death rate may yet catch up with Britain, in which case I would agree. Not something to be celebrated, I hope no-one in Britain is planning a party if it ever happens



The point of the wager was (from my perspective at least) to show that the vaccination programme will not compensate for the earlier fiasco in the UK.

Apologies all round as it's obviously come across differently.


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## Unkraut (18 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The point of the wager was (from my perspective at least) to show that the vaccination programme will not compensate for the earlier fiasco in the UK.


I hope it does!

I might be a bit tired and jaded tonight and seeing what's not there, but I have read commenters on a certain event beginning with B who either simply see this as an excuse to bash the EU (and criticism is certainly justified) or come across as glad about it. I really hope this is not representative of the new Britain.

I hate to quote Cameron but this is a case where we really are all in this together!


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## roubaixtuesday (18 Mar 2021)

Unkraut said:


> I hope it does!
> 
> I might be a bit tired and jaded tonight and seeing what's not there, but I have read commenters on a certain event beginning with B who either simply see this as an excuse to bash the EU (and criticism is certainly justified) or come across as glad about it. I really hope this is not representative of the new Britain.
> 
> I hate to quote Cameron but this is a case where we really are all in this together!



Wholeheartedly agree.


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## deptfordmarmoset (18 Mar 2021)

Unkraut said:


> Why do these comparisons with Germany seem to matter so much? It's hardly comparing like with like. The essential difference since the vaccines were authorised is supply, with as we all know late EU ordering and a massive drop in the supply contracted by AZ. I would still like to know to what extent this is cause and effect.
> 
> The start of a drop in the death rate has been noted on the news. A reasonable number of over 80's have now been vaccinated, in some places all of those in care homes. This is where the fatality rate has been highest, and it is starting to fall. This may be reversed if the newer versions of the virus get out of control amongst the more general population.
> 
> ...


I was responsible for citing Germany v UK cases earlier on. This was because of a post showing a graph where UK cases fell below Germany's and the comment that things weren't looking good on the continent. I thought that the 6 months of Germany managing covid better than the UK could not be summed up as a problem on the continent when the UK had 3 weeks at the bottom of the contagion table. I may be wrong but I felt that the Schadenfreude was evident in the opposite direction.


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## Pale Rider (18 Mar 2021)

classic33 said:


> My reply was about Gregg's alone, their company policy. If the staff aren't keeping to it, they're not slow in getting s new team in.
> 
> The queue also stays outside.



I've only been to a Greggs (in Sunderland) once during the lockdown.

Compliance was reasonable, a short queue outside to preserve the 'only two in the shop' rule, and a few perspex screens dotted around inside.

They were not, however, as good as Costa Coffee next door who were spot on in every respect.


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## mjr (19 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> It seems French PM Castex will outline new restrictions at 6pm UK time tonight. https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/18/french-pm-jean-castex-expected-to-outline-new-virus-restrictions


The bit around Paris has been put into lockdown for a month. Exercise within 10km of home this time. https://www.france24.com/en/video/2...ted-covid-19-lockdown-for-paris-other-regions
Apparently Libé newspaper's front cover this morning was headlined "Re-Lockdown: Fark, One Month!" (but without the CC filter).


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## deptfordmarmoset (19 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> The bit around Paris has been put into lockdown for a month. Exercise within 10km of home this time. https://www.france24.com/en/video/2...ted-covid-19-lockdown-for-paris-other-regions
> Apparently Libé newspaper's front cover this morning was headlined "Re-Lockdown: Fark, One Month!" (but without the CC filter).


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## PK99 (19 Mar 2021)

This plot shows the disturbing European trend:


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## Bazzer (20 Mar 2021)

Well, at least the next door neighbour who had 5 cars of people round on Christmas Day and has regularly had different visitors since then moved out yesterday. The new residents are a known quantity as they lived in the house the other side of us. Yet to meet the people who bought their house.


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## mjr (20 Mar 2021)

PK99 said:


> This plot shows the disturbing European trend:
> View attachment 579442


Be suspicious of "European" graphs omitting Spain and Italy.


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## mjr (21 Mar 2021)

Germany's ministers (state minister-presidents? Not sure. Was on French TV) to meet tomorrow to decide if measures change.


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## deptfordmarmoset (21 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Germany's ministers (state minister-presidents? Not sure. Was on French TV) to meet tomorrow to decide if measures change.


The Guardian reports that Germany looks set to strengthen lockdown restrictions as they've passed the 100 cases per 100,000. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sed-to-tighten-lockdowns-as-covid-cases-surge


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## Joey Shabadoo (21 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Be suspicious of "European" graphs omitting Spain and Italy.


Spain 
Feb 25 9327 new cases = 198 per million
Mar 3 6037 new cases = 128 per million
Mar 10 7118 new cases = 151 per million
Mar 18 6216 new cases = 132 per million

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/


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## Ajax Bay (21 Mar 2021)

I have looked at an important paper: a University of Warwick study dated 18 Mar modelling NPI effect and vaccine (effectiveness, uptake and timings) to predict the possible long-term dynamics of COVID-19 in UK from Jan 2021 to end 2023.
Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
I've put more on the 'vaccine' thread.
"Under plausible assumptions for efficacy and uptake, the UK is unlikely to reach the herd immunity threshold through vaccination. We predict that only gradual release of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) coupled with high uptake of a high-efficacy vaccine can prevent subsequent waves of infection."





*Predicted daily deaths from COVID-19 in the UK after the start of an immunisation programme and relaxation or removal of NPIs*
Shading indicates the level of NPIs implemented. (A, B) The effect of relaxing current NPI measures down to those implemented in early Sep 20. The dashed line indicates the point of partial NPI relaxation—Feb 21, in panel A and Apr 21, in panel B.
Protection against infection [and hence onward transmission] was varied from 0% to 85% in model input.

Though efficacy against disease is of specific individual benefit (protecting against severe symptoms), it is the vaccine protection against infection [and hence onward transmission] that leads to a reduction in the intrinsic growth rate and _R._
But vaccination alone is insufficient to contain the outbreak.
Maintaining low levels of infection is likely to be key to the success of test, trace, and isolate strategies and in reducing the risk of vaccine escape.


----------



## Unkraut (23 Mar 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The Guardian reports that Germany looks set to strengthen lockdown restrictions as they've passed the 100 cases per 100,000.


I'm still waiting for the press conference to announce the new measures. The central govt and states met today and suspended the meeting early evening, and a small group with Merkel are still fighting it out. It's never gone on this long before. There is a real dilemma between harder measures to break the third wave and pressure to open up much of the economy, in particular where this ought not to be that much of a risk. Considerable public disenchantment at lockdowns only ever being extended.

There is speculation that even supermarkets might close from 1st to 6th April, something that has not happened before.


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## Kajjal (23 Mar 2021)

Unkraut said:


> I'm still waiting for the press conference to announce the new measures. The central govt and states met today and suspended the meeting early evening, and a small group with Merkel are still fighting it out. It's never gone on this long before. There is a real dilemma between harder measures to break the third wave and pressure to open up much of the economy, in particular where this ought not to be that much of a risk. Considerable public disenchantment at lockdowns only ever being extended.
> 
> There is speculation that even supermarkets might close from 1st to 6th April, something that has not happened before.


Unfortunately they seem to be going through the same difficulties with the more virulent British variant that the UK did. The Czech Republic are getting hammered by it with hospitals beyond capacity and tight controls on movement controlled in places by the armed forces. Very tough decisions to make and that’s considering how well managed the German response has been.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Mar 2021)

I think people (internationally) did not appreciate the challenge that the then 'new' variant of concern posed in UK from October onwards. The B1.1.7 variant increasingly became the dominant variant (we know this because of the UK's genomic analysis capability). Its 50% greater transmissibility meant that restrictions increasingly applied (or not for the 2 days around Christmas) did not get the 'R' number under control hence the surge in October turned into the ghastly second wave, peaking in January. Externally this was seen as UK just not getting its controls and community discipline right.
Perhaps other nations who weathered their second wave well (with the less virulent original variant) can now see with their third wave how a virus variant which is much more transmissible seems to require sustained lockdowns (UK 4 Jan to 28 Mar). I hope they can individually get the balance right, but it will be a test for each nation. UK maybe an island, but we are part of Europe and the increased prevalence on the continent will likely create constant reseeding which will be an additional burden on the track/trace/isolate mechanism. It looks like control on travel abroad from UK is being tightened up with revised legislation and the threat of fines, but what controls exist on people from abroad deciding that travel to UK is a 'must'? Do we test the reason for entry to UK at the border (Kent or airports) and send people back?
By Easter the UK will have vaccinated all its most vulnerable element (JCVI Gps 1-9, over 50s plus plus): about 32M so a wave [of] serious illness and deaths will not result from rising cases. But the other 25M over 11s will still be unvaccinated and even if some of those 25M have antibodies from previous infection (maybe 4M), the population susceptible to infection is still 20M+. It will be difficult to keep R below 1 after the May planned relaxations. But we'll know from the data what the score is by early May: I hope that properly informs decisions.
Edit: I do think that, given the relatively uncontrolled travel within the British Isles and anyway, we ought to sell/send a wedge of vaccines to Ireland to help them out in their EU vaccine lacuna.


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## Unkraut (23 Mar 2021)

Kajjal said:


> Very tough decisions to make and that’s considering how well managed the German response has been.


I saw Merkel's press conference in the early hours - mug!

The lockdown is being extended to 18th April. Over Easter from Maundy Thursday to Easter Monday there is going to be the severest lockdown yet. Bank holidays here really are holidays - virtually everything shuts down, so the govt is using this as an opportunity to completely shutdown the economy when it would be largely inactive anyway, with a day added on either side. Even supermarkets are going to close, except on Saturday.

Merkel made the interesting comment that we are now in effect dealing with a new pandemic, a new virus, as the British variant, which started spreading in Europe with a vengeance at the beginning of March has in the last few days reached over 70% of infections.

As for well managed, overall yes but with serious lapses and failures in both testing and vaccination from December. The former in particular still hasn't yet been completely sorted. This is due to bureaucracy, and split responsibility with the country's federal structure now sometimes working against getting things done.


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## mjr (23 Mar 2021)

Unkraut said:


> As for well managed, overall yes but with serious lapses and failures in both testing and vaccination from December. The former in particular still hasn't yet been completely sorted. This is due to bureaucracy, and split responsibility with the country's federal structure now sometimes working against getting things done.


That seems rather surprising when many of England's serious lapses and failures in both testing and tracing have been blamed on centralisation and handing it off to a chumocracy appointee (a leading privatise-the-NHS MP's wife), with the country's multilayer subsidiaritised structure sometimes working against getting things done. Norfolk and Suffolk have recently been rejoicing at resuming tracing at local government level.

Maybe the grass is always greener in the other government structure?


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## Ajax Bay (23 Mar 2021)

rockyroller said:


> & there's these nutz:
> The governors of Texas and Mississippi said they were lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity, . . in the midst of health experts warning that the spread of more transmissible variants risks sending infection rates soaring once again





CanucksTraveller said:


> That's interesting isn't it, I do wonder if we'll see a big rise in cases in Texas. I'd expect so.





mjr said:


> But they're at a low latitude, about 30°N.


Thought I'd go and look, three weeks after @rockyroller pointed out the Texas and Mississippi relaxations, on how these two states had done.
Texas cases (population 29M):




Mississipi:




Anyone see the impact of "lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity" on 4 March?


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> By Easter the UK will have vaccinated all its most vulnerable element (JCVI Gps 1-9, over 50s plus plus): about 32M so a wave serious illness and deaths will not result from rising cases.



This is a widely held belief that is almost certainly false. 

All modeling suggests that the number of those either unvaccinated, partially vaccinated (one dose) or unprotected by vaccination (vaccines are not 100% effective) is easily large enough for a further surge to cause a spike of similar magnitude to that in January.


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## Eric Olthwaite (23 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This is a widely held belief that is almost certainly false.
> 
> All modeling suggests that the number of those either unvaccinated, partially vaccinated (one dose) or unprotected by vaccination (vaccines are not 100% effective) is easily large enough for a further surge to cause a spike of similar magnitude to that in January.



A spike of what?


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## mjr (23 Mar 2021)

Where are those graphs from? Here's the BBC's:


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> A spike of what?



Covid cases, hospitalisation and deaths


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## Eric Olthwaite (23 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Covid cases, hospitalisation and deaths



No modelling that treats all three the same, given the progress of the vaccination programme, is worthy of serious consideration.


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> No modelling that treats all three the same, given the progress of the vaccination programme, is worthy of serious consideration.



Happily, no modeling does treat all three the same


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Mar 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> No modelling that treats all three the same, given the progress of the vaccination programme, is worthy of serious consideration.



https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-npis-as-vaccination-proceeds-4-february-2021


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## Ajax Bay (23 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Where are those graphs from? Here's the BBC's:


https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/texas


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## mjr (23 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/texas


oooh who to trust? The BBC or a former Microsoft Chief's pet project?


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## Ajax Bay (23 Mar 2021)

I said:
"By Easter the UK will have vaccinated all its most vulnerable element (JCVI Gps 1-9, over 50s plus plus): about 32M so a wave serious illness and deaths will not result from rising cases. But the other 25M over 11s will still be unvaccinated and even if some of those 25M have antibodies from previous infection (maybe 4M), the population susceptible to infection is still 20M+. It will be difficult to keep R below 1 after the May planned relaxations."


roubaixtuesday said:


> This is a widely held belief that is almost certainly false.
> All modeling suggests that the number of those either unvaccinated, partially vaccinated (one dose) or unprotected by vaccination (vaccines are not 100% effective) is easily large enough for a further surge to cause a spike of [Covid cases, hospitalisation and deaths] of similar magnitude to that in January.


I suggested that any wave this summer will reflect an increase (and fall) of daily cases. But that the increased numbers ('a spike') of daily C19 cases would not result in a wave of anything like the same magnitude (and IFR) of serious illness, implicit burden on the NHS (hospitalisations) let alone deaths. Because:
1) 32M - the vulnerable half of society - contributing nearly all the deaths - will have received the first dose by Easter and all over 80s (and H&SCW) will have had their second by end April;
2) Both (all 3) vaccines give very good protection against serious disease, even with just the first dose.
3) Rt will rise because of relaxation of restrictions but the number susceptible will be less than 50% of the population, which will keep the case levels under control.
If you put parsimonious estimates of variables into a model, then waves can be generated. I have shared some graphs of possible waves upthread.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> oooh who to trust? The BBC or a former Microsoft Chief's pet project?


The BBC graphs you so kindly shared are out of date and contain no data after 7 March. But I've checked the 1 Feb and 7 Mar datapoints on the graphs I shared and the BBC ones and they are the same. So go for it: trust them, and comment on what they show, rather than assaulting their validity.
Since the purpose of the graphs of Texas and Mississipi cases in the last 30 days I shared were to look at the effect of relaxation of restrictions on 4 March, out of date https://covidtracking.com/data graphs are not so useful, even if you clipped them from a BBC site.
As of *March 7, 2021* we [covidtracking.com 's emboldening btw ] are no longer collecting new data. Let's hope the BBC manages to find another 'easy to display' source.
Who to trust, eh?


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## PK99 (24 Mar 2021)

European trends still looking bad


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## mjr (24 Mar 2021)

Bit worrying that the UK seems to have levelled off, too, or possibly turned back upwards slightly. Next relaxation Monday might be the last for a while?


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## Unkraut (24 Mar 2021)

Hot off the press: Merkel has just announced the extra lockdown planned for 1st to 6th April has been cancelled.

It was too short notice for industry - supply chains etc., would have affected benefits payments, and above all difficult if not impossible for the states/Länder to put through the necessary legislation to enable two extra bank holidays. 

The country's federal structure is designed to stop precipitate or 'dictatorial' decisions coming from the centre.

She took full responsibility for the decision and apologised to the public for the additional insecurity it will have caused. That a decision taken amongst a few on Monday following 11 hours of deliberation by the central and state governments has had to be overturned a couple of days later will not help trust in the overall management of the pandemic. The intention was good but the practicalities had not been sufficiently thought through. The legal position regarding two extra holidays had not been suitably thought out.

Some will see this more positively in that a mistake was made, recognised and corrected, others will see it as doing more damage to the conservatives in an election year - their rating in the polls is falling significantly. The government is reacting rather than acting.

The vaccination rate is still the greatest source of discontent, and it is estimated it will not act a a brake on transmission until the end of May or beginning of June.


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## PK99 (24 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Bit worrying that the UK seems to have levelled off, too, or possibly turned back upwards slightly. Next relaxation Monday might be the last for a while?



in finer detail;

No indication yet of either leveling off or uptrend - apparent minor upticks look like weekend reporting data artifacts.


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## PK99 (24 Mar 2021)

Unkraut said:


> Hot off the press: Merkel has just announced the extra lockdown planned for 1st to 6th April has been cancelled.
> 
> It was too short notice for industry - supply chains etc., would have affected benefits payments, and above all difficult if not impossible for the states/Länder to put through the necessary legislation to enable two extra bank holidays.
> 
> ...



Thanks for the on-the-spot info - much better than the journalistic fluff from the media.


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## mjr (24 Mar 2021)

PK99 said:


> in finer detail;
> 
> No indication yet of either leveling off or uptrend - apparent minor upticks look like weekend reporting data artifacts.


I had a quick go at ourworldindata (only quick before I go to lunch, so sorry for no download/attach/edit cycle) and it seems we have not quite levelled off (so I was wrong) but we are definitely levelling off (so you are wrong too!) with cases now falling only 4% week-on-week compared with 30% three weeks ago.

Has anyone at gov.uk said exactly what the data criteria are for each step of legal unlocking? Is 0% good enough, or do cases need to be falling or below some level?


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## mjr (24 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> [...] As of *March 7, 2021* we [covidtracking.com 's emboldening btw ] are no longer collecting new data. Let's hope the BBC manages to find another 'easy to display' source.
> Who to trust, eh?


I've said it before and I'll say it again: "In God we trust: all others must bring data." And ideally informative data rather than random bricktext with assumptions hidden, sources not cited and steps missing from the calculations.

Ten points for spotting that data source expiring, but minus several thousand for trolling dyslexics yet again.

Also, I tried to check what restrictions were lifted in Texas on that date in reality (rather than politician announcements because we know from Boris that he announces stuff that doesn't actually change until days later) and got bogged down in articles about the governor's officials suing various counties like Travis County and cities like Austin for ignoring the governor's order and not lifting their earlier-imposed local restrictions.

Plus, even with the laws being reversed, there still seems to be strong public health messages to continue using masks and shoot, so it's just that people and especially businesses can't be fined for being daffodils any more, not necessarily that behaviour has changed in practice.

And finally, I don't think we know whether gov.uk is planning to keep trying to persuade people to use masks and so on (what some call Not Plugged In) after the legal free-for-all is declared, do we?

This needs more data before it becomes useful information IMO.


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## Cirrus (24 Mar 2021)

Has this been done?.. Italian authorities discover 29M Oxford/AstraZeneca doses: La Stampa – POLITICO Looks like Italy have found 29m doses of the AZ vaccine behind a sofa..

Edited to add, according to the article they were destined for the UK


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## Yellow Fang (24 Mar 2021)

Cirrus said:


> Has this been done?.. Italian authorities discover 29M Oxford/AstraZeneca doses: La Stampa – POLITICO Looks like Italy have found 29m doses of the AZ vaccine behind a sofa


The Telegraph is reporting they were destined for Europe and developing countries.

Edited to add: British sources say they were not expecting any shipment from Italy.


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## Cirrus (24 Mar 2021)

Yellow Fang said:


> The Telegraph is reporting they were destined for Europe and developing countries.
> 
> Edited to add: British sources say they were not expecting any shipment from Italy.


LA Stampa are intimating that EU sources told them they were destined for the UK, will be interesting to see how it pans out


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## PK99 (24 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> I had a quick go at ourworldindata (only quick before I go to lunch, so sorry for no download/attach/edit cycle) and it seems we have not quite levelled off (so I was wrong) but we are definitely levelling off (so you are wrong too!) with cases now falling only 4% week-on-week compared with 30% three weeks ago.
> 
> Has anyone at gov.uk said exactly what the data criteria are for each step of legal unlocking? Is 0% good enough, or do cases need to be falling or below some level?



of course the gradient of the line of an exponential decay changes.
That is not the same as a change in the function that "leveling off" would imply.







This plot from the same data source is interesting - I could believe it is erroueous
Or,
Does it suggest that we have reached the point where the irreducible False Positive level has been reached?


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## Eric Olthwaite (24 Mar 2021)

PK99 said:


> Does it suggest that we have reached the point where the irreducible False Positive level has been reached?



Graph looks dodgy - even a false positive level would have some variation day to day


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## Yellow Fang (24 Mar 2021)

Cirrus said:


> LA Stampa are intimating that EU sources told them they were destined for the UK, will be interesting to see how it pans out



From the Daily Express
_A spokesman for AstraZeneca said: “We would like to clarify some inaccurate statements relating to vaccine doses at the Anagni plant.

"There are no exports currently planned other than to COVAX countries.

"There are 13m doses of vaccine waiting for quality control release to be dispatched to COVAX as part of our commitment to supply millions of doses to low-income countries, the vaccine was made outside the EU and brought to the Agnani plant to be filled into vials.

"The EU fully supports supplying low and middle-income countries through the COVAX facility.

"There are another 16m doses waiting for quality control release to be dispatched to Europe. Close to 10m doses will be delivered to EU countries during the last week of March, the balance in April as the doses are approved for release after quality control._


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## Cirrus (24 Mar 2021)

Yellow Fang said:


> The Telegraph is reporting they were destined for Europe and developing countries.
> 
> Edited to add: British sources say they were not expecting any shipment from Italy.


Yup, BBC are also now saying the doses are supposed to be for Belgium


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## deptfordmarmoset (24 Mar 2021)

Yellow Fang said:


> From the Daily Express
> _A spokesman for AstraZeneca said: “We would like to clarify some inaccurate statements relating to vaccine doses at the Anagni plant.
> 
> "There are no exports currently planned other than to COVAX countries.
> ...


So, la Stampa says it's for the UK, AZ say it's for Covax countries, the Telegraph says it's for Europe and developing countries, and BBC Radio 4 announced that it was Belgium bound. Will anything ever be straightforward with AZ?


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## johnblack (24 Mar 2021)

Do the positive tests includes those from LFT or just PCR? 
We have two kids testing twice a week at home and they are logging their negative results, but they said that nearly all of their friends haven't bothered logging the results and won't unless they test positive. So I guess if that is reflected throughout the country, there will be an uptick of positives results as a % of tests carried out.


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## mjr (24 Mar 2021)

"Hospitalisations explosion" means Belgium moves schools back to remote learning (except "maternelle"), nonessential shops to appointment-only, hair&beauty closed, groups limited to 4, border controls and checks on journey essentialness increased over Easter. https://www.lavenir.net/cnt/dmf2021...our-eviter-une-explosion-des-hospitalisations


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## matticus (24 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> nonessential shops to appointment-only,


Hmm, now there's an interesting idea. I suppose it's a bit like Click-n-Collect.
(Guess it would allow a regular customer of - say - an art gallery to pop-in and browse.)


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## mjr (24 Mar 2021)

matticus said:


> Hmm, now there's an interesting idea. I suppose it's a bit like Click-n-Collect.
> (Guess it would allow a regular customer of - say - an art gallery to pop-in and browse.)


Click and collect is included in the permission, too.

Belgium has had several interesting ideas, such as time limits in supermarkets, but how much use they've been, who knows?


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## matticus (24 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Belgium has had several interesting ideas, such as time limits in supermarkets,


Are you sure you weren't watching a gameshow?


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## mjr (24 Mar 2021)

matticus said:


> Are you sure you weren't watching a gameshow?


Maybe a film? It's certainly felt like an inverted version of Logan's Run at times recently, with the young being sacrificed so the old can booze indoors and go on holidays sooner.


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## matticus (24 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Maybe a film? It's certainly felt like an inverted version of Logan's Run at times recently, with the young being sacrificed so the old can booze indoors and go on holidays sooner.


I'll send you a postcard !


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## mjr (24 Mar 2021)

matticus said:


> I'll send you a postcard !


Just don't lick the stamp!


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## Ajax Bay (24 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> I've said it before and I'll say it again: "In God we trust: all others must bring data." And ideally informative data rather than random bricktext with assumptions hidden, sources not cited and steps missing from the calculations.
> 
> Ten points for spotting that data source expiring, but minus several thousand for trolling dyslexics yet again.


Thank you for your wise advice.
May I enquire what a "trolling dyslexic" is? Are you casting yourself in that mould? I am really not sure.


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## Ajax Bay (24 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Bit worrying that the UK seems to have levelled off, too, or possibly turned back upwards slightly. Next relaxation Monday might be the last for a while? . . .
> Has anyone at gov.uk said exactly what the data criteria are for each step of legal unlocking? Is 0% good enough, or do cases need to be falling or below some level?


To answer your subordinate question: 'No' and very sensibly, they won't. It'll be a qualitative judgement, very much based on the data a week before each substantive step. See the third test below.
The UK Government's 4 tests for whether it is safe to reduce restrictions, "no earlier than" the dates quoted are:

"the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
"evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
"infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
"our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
"The UK government will continue to protect the public by ensuring local outbreaks are managed quickly and effectively and that we combat new dangerous variants, . . ."
Comment:
1. *Vaccine.* By 4 Apr 'all' the JCVI Groups 1-9 (32M) will have received a jab (except those who can't or won't accept it) and about 3M will have had their second. Depending on vaccine supply, most of the vaccines for most of April will be second doses.
2. *Effectiveness.* Data (Pfizer and Oxford-AZ) on single dose effectiveness against serious disease suggests that this criterion is already satisfied. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody data for the UK: 16 March 2021 
3. *Infections/Hospitalisations.* Infection rates are now flat having fallen from 10 188 to 5 476 (7-day average) in the last 26 days (ie since the announcement on 22 Feb, to 20 Mar). This flattening may be a result of the doubled level of testing but we can't be sure. The number of cases previously drove demand on NHS hospitals but mid April with the 93% most vulnerable vaccinated - effective after 21 days (11 Apr) - that should mean much reduced numbers with C19 in hospital. A month ago I shared a projection of that metric being below 5 000 by the end of April. In fact hospitalisations have dropped about 25% a week, week on week since 22 Feb and are already down to 5407 (22 Mar). The latest ONS release on deaths notes that deaths in the week ending 12 Mar are below the 5 year average, despite COVID-19 assigned deaths still being about 14% of all deaths.
4. *Variants.* The various VoCs seem to have been contained at present. So it's reasonable to say that the UK is managing to keep variants under control. Of course this may change: the point of having it as a 'test'.


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## mjr (24 Mar 2021)

So stepping back to my question, there is no increase of cases that will stop it. Only if hospitalisation explodes again. Now most MPs have their jabs, they don't care how many get ill until it clogs up hospitals or it results in a new variant 

But the vaccine deployment pausing due to supply trouble should delay the unlocking. I bet it doesn't, though, as that would involve gov.uk admitting a hitch in one of the few things to go well so far. Hmm.


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## Ajax Bay (24 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> So stepping back to my question, there is no increase of cases that will stop it. Only if hospitalisation explodes again. Now most MPs have their jabs, they don't care how many get ill until it clogs up hospitals or it results in a new variant
> But the vaccine deployment pausing due to supply trouble should delay the unlocking. I bet it doesn't, though, as that would involve gov.uk admitting a hitch in one of the few things to go well so far. Hmm.


*Cases* I think the expectation is that any upward pressure on the number of daily cases by relaxation, in careful steps a month apart, of the restrictions will be countered by increased numbers of vaccinated people, with effective vaccine.
*Vaccines* The first test was whether "the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully." The specific 'success' measures are giving a first jab to all over 50s plus plus by mid April; giving second doses at the 12 week point, and vaccinating all adults by the end of July. Do you think this will not be on track (or ahead of) at any date in the future?
*Vaccine supply* Bumps on the road. Given the supply uncertainty, the UK is having to withhold first doses which the programme would have pushed on with (the 40-49s) to make sure there's sufficient supply of both Pfizer and Ox-AZ to give as second doses. We need to allow 10M second doses, roughly half and half Pfizer and Ox-AZ, for those who need (12 week gap) their second jab by end April. The EU generated uncertainty for the Pfizer ones is an inefficiency: I sincerely hope it's resolved. The two UK Oxford-AZ plants plus Wrexham will be able to supply the Ox-AZ ones needed, and more.
*Hospitalisation* is not going to 'explode'. I offered reasons why in my post.
As for your random MPs agist rant, I suspect that "most MPs [may NOT] have [had] their jabs". The average age is 50 so it's about half done and half waiting their turn.





https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7483/
*Variants.* The various VoCs seem to have been contained at present, but it remains an 'issue' for close monitoring.


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## mjr (25 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> *Vaccines* The first test was whether "the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully." The specific 'success' measures are giving a first jab to all over 50s plus plus by mid April; giving second doses at the 12 week point, and vaccinating all adults by the end of July. Do you think this will not be on track (or ahead of) at any date in the future?


How about we wait and see? And is the test vaccine
deployment continuing, or it hitting a few spot-date targets?



Ajax Bay said:


> As for your random MPs agist rant, I suspect that "most MPs [may NOT] have [had] their jabs". The average age is 50 so it's about half done and half waiting their turn.


The average age was 51 fifteen months ago and a 35 year old is the only resignation so far, so the average age is probably over 52 and the absence of under 24s and presence of over 80s (Bill Cash, for one) means the median will be higher than the mean, so most MPs are indeed allowed the jab now. It is bizarre to argue against that based on 2019 bar charts.


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## matticus (25 Mar 2021)

"about half" vs "most"
Immovable object vs irresistable force?
Rumble in the jungle??

Who will win?!?


----------



## Ajax Bay (25 Mar 2021)

What do we need to achieve herd immunity?
British Society for Immunology - COVID-19 Advisory Group
"Herd immunity is when transmission of the virus within a population is markedly reduced due to the high proportion of people who are already immune. If sufficient people in the population are immune, the virus remains at low or undetectable levels, thus protecting anyone who is not yet vaccinated (e.g. infants, [_vaccine hesitant_]), those unable to make a good immune response themselves (e.g. people who are frail, very elderly or immuno-compromised), or those who [_cannot accept_] the vaccine [_for medical reasons_].
"Importantly, for a vaccine to confer herd immunity, it has to either stop or substantially reduce transmission. If the vaccine prevents symptoms but has little effect on infections [_protective immunity_], it cannot confer herd immunity (as vaccinated people will continue to get infected and continue to transmit the virus, but without getting [_symptomatic_] COVID-19 disease themselves).
"The proportion of the population who have to be immune, or otherwise not susceptible, in order to stop transmission depends on:

how infectious that pathogen is (does it spread easily or not?), [_drives the R0 value_]
how long someone remains infectious (is it just a few days or [weeks]?) [_how many days their viral load is enough to be 'shared'_]
whether people know they are infected/infectious (do they always have symptoms or not?). [_affects behaviour and therefore likelihood of transmission_]
"In essence, the number of people required to have immunity is deduced from a mathematical formula dependent on the R0 value for the virus. In the case of SARS-CoV-2" _draws on Lancet comment_:
Challenges in creating herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection by mass vaccination
"For a vaccine with 100% efficacy . . . , the level of herd immunity as a proportion of the population required to block transmission is [1 – 1 / R0], where R0 is the basic reproduction number. Given an R0 value before lockdowns in most countries of between 2·5 to 3·5, we estimate the herd immunity required is about 60–72%.
"If the proportional vaccine efficacy, ε, is considered, the simple expression for pc becomes [1 – 1 / R0] / ε. If we assume ε is 0·8 (80%), then the herd immunity required becomes 75–90% for the defined range of R0 values. For lower efficacies, the entire population would have to be immunised."


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## Ajax Bay (25 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> Now most MPs have their jabs, they don't care how many get ill until it clogs up hospitals or it results in a new variant





matticus said:


> "about half" vs "most"


I was aware that the median age of UK's MPs was a most important matter that needed full attention, Matt. Yes: who will win? There's a thing. Hopefully Scotland, to help Wales.
The idea that MPs' level of 'care' about "how many get ill" will be affected by whether they have or haven't been vaccinated is a stretch for me. I think they are more likely to consider the data when scrutinising the government's decisions.


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## matticus (25 Mar 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The idea that MPs' level of 'care' about "how many get ill" will be affected by whether they have or haven't been vaccinated is a stretch for me. I think they are more likely to consider the data when scrutinising the government's decisions.


... from the Commons bar.

:P


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## PK99 (25 Mar 2021)

mjr said:


> *so most MPs are indeed allowed the jab now. I*t is bizarre to argue against that based on 2019 bar charts.



52% is not most!

If a vaccine were effective for 52% of people, would it be right to say "most" are protected?


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## vickster (25 Mar 2021)

PK99 said:


> 52% is not most!
> 
> If a vaccine were effective for 52% of people, would it be right to say "most" are protected?


Only when it comes to Brexit vote is 52% most


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## matticus (25 Mar 2021)

I await the official definition of "_most" _as approved by the National Society of Statisticians.


----------



## Unkraut (25 Mar 2021)

matticus said:


> I await the official definition of "_most" _as approved by the National Society of Statisticians.


Yes but what percentage of that august body need to give their approval?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (25 Mar 2021)

Unkraut said:


> Yes but what percentage of that august body need to give their approval?



A sample size of them such that there is an 80% chance that the true value lies with the calculated 95% confidence interval of the sampled value.


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## matticus (25 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> A sample size of them such that there is an 80% chance that the true value lies with the calculated 95% confidence interval of the sampled value.


That sounds about right.


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## Ajax Bay (25 Mar 2021)

PK99 said:


> f a vaccine were effective for 52% of people, would it be right to say "most" are protected?


Only if the sample being considered had been vaccinated.


matticus said:


> I await the official definition of "_most" _as approved by the National Society of Statisticians.


Ah, "definitions". See also:
Offered
Gamble
Bet
Major 1st world nation
Hospital recovery
Efficacy
Effectiveness
Essential
Wave
Wavelet
Cyclist
ETA: Success, Optimism bias, Local, 'At cost', Best reasonable efforts


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## classic33 (30 Mar 2021)

As of the 29th March 2021
The Health Protection Surveillance Centre has today been notified of 1 additional death related to COVID-19.

There has been a total of 4,667 COVID-19 related deaths in Ireland.

As of 8am today, 331 COVID-19 patients are hospitalised, of which 70 are in ICU. 19 additional hospitalisations in the past 24 hours.

As of March 26th 2021, 786,569 doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in Ireland:

567,023 people have received their first dose
219,546 people have received their second dose

From a population of 4,977,400.


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## Johnno260 (30 Mar 2021)

For people that don't believe in this Pandemic, I wish I could show them the results it's had on a family friend.

This person is young and healthy no pre-existing health conditions, she wasn't admitted to hospital but the toll this has taken on her is extreme, she has major lung damage and scarring, and damaged heart valves, on her family walk she is now pushed in a wheelchair.

A certain portion of society need to wake up and realize this isn't a joke.


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## vickster (30 Mar 2021)

Impending spike among 20 somethings in Nottingham? 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-56575135


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## Johnno260 (30 Mar 2021)

vickster said:


> Impending spike among 20 somethings in Nottingham?
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-56575135



people being selfish is a recurring theme during this episode, along with porch pirates,and these people who moan their right to protest is in jeopardy when the event is called kill the bill, it’s right to peaceful protest haha but I suppose these Neanderthal can’t read yet.


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## vickster (30 Mar 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> people being selfish is a recurring theme during this episode, along with porch pirates,and these people who moan their right to protest is in jeopardy when the event is called kill the bill, it’s right to peaceful protest haha but I suppose these Neanderthal can’t read yet.


They were sunning themselves in the park, not protesting as far as I know


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## Johnno260 (30 Mar 2021)

vickster said:


> They were sunning themselves in the park, not protesting as far as I know



I was being a little more general was all, I just throw everyone being daft in the same bucket I suppose haha


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## roubaixtuesday (30 Mar 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> I was being a little more general was all, I just throw everyone being daft in the same bucket I suppose haha



I think most transmission has been in the workplace and in households (inter household mixing a particular concern).

Number of workplaces closed: zero

Outrage over outdoor risk activities of all sorts is out of all proportion to its impact.


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## Johnno260 (30 Mar 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I think most transmission has been in the workplace and in households (inter household mixing a particular concern).
> 
> Number of workplaces closed: zero
> 
> Outrage over outdoor risk activities of all sorts is out of all proportion to its impact.



True, I think my tolerance is just at zero these days.


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## Ajax Bay (31 Mar 2021)

I fear that 4 weeks will not be a long enough lock down for France. Their rate of increase is as bad as the UK's was in January. As in UK from mid December onwards, the gradient of the wave in France is driven by the 30+% more transmissible B1.1.7 variant (dominant) though in some departments the B1.351 and the P.1 are 'out-of-control' as well (but have no advantage on the B1.1.7 because they are no more infectious (debatable)). The French had made a prolonged effort to avoid a third lockdown - which meant that the case rate 'slowly' doubled over the 13 week period from 4 Dec to 6 Mar. It has doubled again in 25 days (31 Mar) and it seems likely the next double will be (estimate based on locked-down UK) 20 days. To compare cases in UK quadrupled from 4 Dec to 10 Jan (peak): 37 days. And we are just starting to relax the lockdown restrictions, 12 weeks later, with half our adult population, including the 95+% most vulnerable vaccinated (first dose).
Some few percent of its most vulnerable elderly may be safe because they've been vaccinated. Daily deaths in France started to turn up sharply on 25 Mar - which is what might be expected: 19 days since the cases started to rise. (The delay in UK's last deadly wave was 15 days.)
You can see from the graph below why the German Chancellor is desperate to get all the Länder to lockdown without delay.


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## mjr (1 Apr 2021)

Detail of French lockdown, which includes a ban on public drinking in respose to out of all proportion outrage about people relaxing outdoors. Still no ban on slow-acting presidents. https://www.france24.com/en/france/...c-spaces-under-new-covid-19-lockdown-measures


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## Joey Shabadoo (1 Apr 2021)

This annoyed me today front page of the BBC "News" site - "When can we stop wearing facemasks?"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51205344
When you get to the actual page the title changes to -

*Coronavirus: What are the rules for face masks or face coverings?*


First two paras -



> US health advisors* now say people who have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 can gather unmasked with others who have been vaccinated.*
> They can also visit unvaccinated people from one other household indoors without masks or distancing so long as the unvaccinated people are not at high risk for severe Covid-19. But they should still wear masks when out in public.
> The UK has yet to make such recommendations, however.



WTAF has what the Yanks are saying got to do with people in the UK who are looking to the UK state broadcaster for information on Covid rules in the UK? Seriously? Especially damaging as a lot of people have the attention spans of ants and will barely look beyond the first para. It's gross feckin stupidity.


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## Ajax Bay (2 Apr 2021)

Thought I'd share this graph from PH England's ' Weekly National Influenza and COVID-19 Surveillance Report'
The lines shows results of blood analysis (extrapolated and weighted (by age group, sex and NHS region)) for Roche (S) test (black line) showing both vaccine-induced and previous infection induced C19 antibodies; and Roche (N) test (red line) showing just previous C19 infection induced antibodies.




The dataset is up to about 6 days ago and is over 18s in England. The final datapoint on the black line aligns pretty well with the percentage vaccinated by 10 March (14 days before, to allow the vaccine to 'work').
Given:
1) There is a significant seropositive element in the population, without having been vaccinated: 15% (red line above - it averages a little higher in the 18-49s btw); About 22M adults have not been vaccinated: of those 15% who have antibodies is therefore 3+M.
2) 59% of the adult (O/18) population have received their first dose (31M).
3) 75% of the total UK population (ie including the 14M under 18s) is 50M.
Caveats:
# If the vaccination programme proceeds as planned (assumes a resumption of better supply from late April onwards) and
# if herd immunity is achieved at 75% vaccination (see previous posts on discussion of the factors: vaccine % effect on transmission as opposed to 'just' prevention of symptomatic illness, NPI (restriction) measures limiting 'R', dominant variant no more infectious than current)
Then my estimate is that we might reach 'herd immunity' by 14 July. The impact we'd see is that the daily case figure which is likely to rise in the next 6 weeks (NB but not result in severe illness increase - this will decline - cases and hospitalisations have been disconnected by vaccination of the vulnerable half of the population) will tail away in late June onwards and the test and trace mechanism can concentrate on what it can probably manage: whack-a-mole (both outbreaks and VoC discoveries).


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## Ajax Bay (2 Apr 2021)

rockyroller said:


> & there's these nutz:
> The governors of Texas and Mississippi said they were lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity, announcements that came in the midst of health experts warning that the spread of more transmissible variants risks sending infection rates soaring once again





CanucksTraveller said:


> That's interesting isn't it, I do wonder if we'll see a big rise in cases in Texas. I'd expect so.


Thought I'd revisit Texas, 28 days on from "lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity" on 4 March?
Anyone see the impact of that on cases? No, me neither.
Texas cases (population 29M):





(Obviously the 31 Mar figure is yet to be updated.)
(And cases in Mississippi are half what they were on 4 Mar.)


----------



## CanucksTraveller (2 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Thought I'd revisit Texas, 28 days on from "lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity" on 4 March?
> Anyone see the impact of that on cases? No, me neither.
> Texas cases (population 29M):
> View attachment 581996
> ...


Very interesting, thanks for revisiting it. Just to play devil's advocate, it would seem that cases haven't really declined any in Texas either, and their daily vaccination numbers are huge. So, might their infection rates have been heading sharply downwards by now had they not ditched the masks and allowed full occupancy of stores etc? The question is largely rhetorical, I'm just pondering really.


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## Ajax Bay (2 Apr 2021)

CanucksTraveller said:


> it would seem that cases haven't really declined any in Texas


Since 4 March, cases have halved - I'd call that a decline.
'Only' 26% of Texans have had their first jab. This will have had limited effect on case rate. Though will have reduced death rate as they'll have vaccinated their vulnerable. For comparison, this %age is almost exactly the same as UK's JCVI Gps 1-4 which UK completed (first dose) by 14 Feb.


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## IaninSheffield (3 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Thought I'd revisit Texas, 28 days on from "lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity" on 4 March?
> Anyone see the impact of that on cases? No, me neither.
> Texas cases (population 29M):
> View attachment 581996
> ...


Could it be that the prevalence of B.1.1.7 isn't sufficiently high yet? (Low pop. density across the state, therefore lower transmission rate for any variant?)
In states where B.1.1.7 is high (Florida, California, Colorado, Michigan), the cases are level or rising.

And somewhat curiously, latest version of the above vis snapshot:


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## Ajax Bay (3 Apr 2021)

IaninSheffield said:


> Could it be that the prevalence of B.1.1.7 isn't sufficiently high yet? (Low pop. density across the state, therefore lower transmission rate for any variant?) In states where B.1.1.7 is high (Florida, California, Colorado, Michigan), the cases are level or rising.


Could be, Ian. Looks like all the 31 Mar cases were reported added to the 1 Apr number. The slow takeover of B.1.1.7, in particular its higher transmissibility, will counter the beneficial effect of the increasing proportion vaccinated. (and see my comment below)
Regarding the VoC spread, I was impressed with this graph showing the proportion of variants in the USA over time, and that it's shared.





https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-proportions.html 
Percentages on the right hand table are for 27 Feb. In a fortnight, the percentage of B.1.1.7 VoC had doubled, so by mid April may be dominant (>50%).


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## PK99 (3 Apr 2021)

Things are looking better over the Channel.

Clearly past the inflection point and close to peak in most cases.

No sign of any change in the downward UK trend.


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## Ajax Bay (3 Apr 2021)

PK99 said:


> Things are looking better over the Channel.
> Clearly past the inflection point and close to peak in most cases.
> No sign of any change in the downward UK trend.
> View attachment 582126


I don't think any of the continental nations' curves have quite 'reached an inflection point', let alone passed it, except Belgium (of the ones you included). And it can't be the lockdown that's slowing the daily case count rate of increase in France, can it? The lockdown doesn't take effect till tonight (Saturday 3 Apr). I'd be delighted if the French cases peak asap and decline rapidly. The UK's daily case curve (gov.uk webpage not the WiD one) peaked on 1 Jan (specimen date), the lockdown started on 5 Jan and the daily cases had halved on 21 Jan (after 20 days, 18 days on WiD data).
The UK cases seem to level off from 6-24 March around 5600 per day (7-day average) - think some of that was massively increased testing when schools reopened, but we don't know). But since 23 Mar they've dropped over 25% in a week (to 30 Mar, so unaffected by Good Friday bank holiday reporting reductions). Might we assume there's been no adverse effect on case levels of allowing our children to get back into school and continue their education? Perhaps secondary school age adolescents will mix more during the Easter holidays and that'll increase case levels. I suspect we'll not see that effect.


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## PK99 (3 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I don't think any of the continental nations' curves have quite 'reached an inflection point', let alone passed it,



An inflection point, in graphical terms, is the point at which a curve changes from concave to convex. 
In mathematical terms, the second derivative of the function (ie rate of change of the gradient of the line) is Zero

To my eye, each of the continental curves has passed that point and the number of cases, while still rising, is no longer near exponential.

The relevant date for each, is around 16 March, when the rate of increase begins to switch over. The absolute number of cases continues to rise rapidly, but it no longer looks out of control.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (3 Apr 2021)

Meanwhile (normal weekend/bank holiday reporting failures admitting), only 10 deaths notified today. We'll catch up after Easter but it's still going in the right direction.


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## mjr (4 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The UK's daily case curve (gov.uk webpage not the WiD one) peaked on 1 Jan (specimen date), the lockdown started on 5 Jan and the daily cases had halved on 21 Jan (after 20 days, 18 days on WiD data).


Lockdown may have gone national from 5th but the southeastern half were pretty locked down from 19th and 26th.

That is the trouble with these simple analyses. Headlines say one thing but the detail may say another and actual behaviour may say a third. Like for Texas, where it is not clear what effect the legal changes had when, especially given the genital comparison contest between some cities and the state.


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## Bazzer (4 Apr 2021)

Mrs B told this morning that the brother of a friend of hers died yesterday from Covid. 56 years of age. No information re underlying health conditions, but his sister reckons he caught it at work, although the basis behind this is unknown. He worked in a warehouse.


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## rockyroller (4 Apr 2021)

florida morons like to brag about their "numbers". that's no consolation to their 40,000 dead "people" this year. their "numbers" would be even better, if they weren't morons. same for texass & mississippi


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## Ajax Bay (4 Apr 2021)

rockyroller said:


> florida morons like to brag about their "numbers". that's no consolation to their 40,000 dead "people" this year. their "numbers" would be even better, if they weren't morons.


Thank you for that balanced contribution. No amount of bragging or modesty (eg Vermont) is any consolation to the families of those who've died or to those who are still suffering. You don't know that other policies would have been better for Florida, whatever their intelligence quotient.
Fact Check: Deaths in Florida due to COVID-19 (as registered) show as 33+k to end March. This is quite a way short of 40k.
Average annual deaths in Florida is about 200k.
If you would prefer to look at excess deaths (since Mar 2020) then there's probably been over 40k in 13 months - but not all are COVID-19 directly.


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## rockyroller (5 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> You don't know that other policies would have been better for Florida.


I was referring to their lifting restrictions prematurely multiple times. they would have done done better, if they hadn't. that's all


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## mjr (5 Apr 2021)

Everyone in England able to get two nose-scraping lateral flow tests a week from Friday. https://www.joe.co.uk/news/everyone-in-england-to-be-offered-two-rapid-weekly-covid-tests-268915

I think two things will deter uptake:
- nose scraping is unpleasant. Spit tests would be less of a barrier.
- precarious workers cannot afford to quarantine so will not take tests voluntarily.


----------



## Poacher (5 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Thank you for that balanced contribution. No amount of bragging or modesty (eg Vermont) is any consolation to the families of those who've died or to those who are still suffering. You don't know that other policies would have been better for Florida, whatever their intelligence quotient.
> Fact Check: Deaths in Florida due to COVID-19 (as registered) show as 33+k to end March. This is quite a way short of 40k.
> Average annual deaths in Florida is about 200k.
> If you would prefer to look at excess deaths (since Mar 2020) then there's probably been over 40k in 13 months - but not all are COVID-19 directly.


There have been fairly strong suspicions that cause of death figures have been adjusted downwards under pressure from politicians.
Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop. (tampabay.com) 
Florida is undercounting COVID-19 deaths, per new report | Blogs (orlandoweekly.com)


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## Ajax Bay (5 Apr 2021)

For a fortnight 12-27 March, the UK's case rate was almost flat, But by 30 March (last day of 'specimen date data) it was headed down by 16% (week on week). I can only surmise that the doubling of the testing as schools went back had the effect of detecting many asymptomatic cases that wouldn't have been even tested and that negated the continued ?exponential decay in the case rate effected by social restrictions keeping 'R' below 1 and affected by the steady reduction in the proportion of the population which is susceptible to infection, last month almost all through vaccination.
Six weeks ago, after the Government's 'road map' announcement I looked at how likely it was that the 4 'data' tests would be satisfied at the decision point (-7 days) before each stage of the 'no earlier than' restriction relaxation. On hospitalisations I suggested that the (24 Feb) 15,906 bed occupancy (COVID-19 positive patients, UK) would drop and might be expected to be less than 5000 by the end of April. In fact the numbers dropped to below 4000 by the end of MARCH. I think this means that less than 4% of UK hospital beds are currently needed by C19 patients.
To allow perspective (this is not a comparison but offers an idea of magnitude), C19 hospital admission rate on 24 Mar was about 0.5 per 100,000 and last year flu admissions at their peak in January 2020 were 6.8 per 100,000. Every normal year, flu hospitalisations (and deaths btw) peak in January - winter 2019-2020 was average for flu in UK. Mercifully the amount of serious flu around this January (2021) seems to have been almost nil.


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## rockyroller (5 Apr 2021)

the kids are catching it now. today is 1st day all-in (no more hybrid scheduling) for Wifey's school & the Principal has to quarantine because her 7 yr old caught it from day care. the Father, also a Principal, has to quarantine as well. hang on folks the rest of the school year is gonna be interesting ...


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## mjr (5 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> For a fortnight 12-27 March, the UK's case rate was almost flat, But by 30 March (last day of 'specimen date data) it was headed down by 16% (week on week). I can only surmise that the doubling of the testing as schools went back had the effect of detecting many asymptomatic cases that wouldn't have been even tested [...]


Can you only surmise that? And is that a reasonable thing to surmise? Is there any correlation between the increase in testing and the number of cases bucking the trend? I didn't see it in the data, but it seems that the testing data is being presented differently from when I was last looking at it closely so I may not be looking in the right places.


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## Bazzer (5 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> <snip>
> To allow perspective (this is not a comparison but offers an idea of magnitude), C19 hospital admission rate on 24 Mar was about 0.5 per 100,000 and last year flu admissions at their peak in January 2020 were 6.8 per 100,000. Every normal year, flu hospitalisations (and deaths btw) peak in January - winter 2019-2020 was average for flu in UK. Mercifully the amount of serious flu around this January (2021) seems to have been almost nil.


Now if only the morons who have disregarded lockdown rules can join the dots between the spread of infection and social interactions? 
But I suspect Spot the Dog books are their limit.


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## matticus (6 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> *Can you only surmise that?* And is that a reasonable thing to surmise? Is there any correlation between the increase in testing and the number of cases bucking the trend?


What else do you think he should be surmising?
(Or have I misunderstood - maybe you meant it should be stronger than "surmising"?)


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## mjr (6 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> What else do you think he should be surmising?


That actual cases flattened.


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## matticus (6 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> That actual cases flattened.


But that would instead of - not as well as.

Anyway, the good news is that downward progress in the numbers has since recommenced


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## mjr (6 Apr 2021)

UK finally introduces covid testing of incoming lorry drivers.

Some claims that 8000 tourists a day arriving in the UK are mostly ignoring quarantine. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lockdown-uk-tourists-flights-coming-in-b1826845.html


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## Ajax Bay (6 Apr 2021)

The SAGE meeting (85) considered modelling (Warwick Uni) of the hospitalisation levels (and worse) for England assuming relaxation of (most of) the restrictions in stages from March to June.
Executive Summary (very precised, easy read at link: 2/3 of a page)

Models impact of relaxations in England
Will be a third wave with a summer (July/August) peak of hospitalisations: severity depends on many factors/assumptions/uncertainties
Uncertainties:
transmission levels at each relaxation step;
seasonality effect (both on virus and on outside/inside and ventilation behaviour;
vaccine efficacy (in particular preventing transmission),
uncertainty in the population-level immunity due to infection,
confounding behaviours, both beneficial and detrimental (extended caution even after relaxations; restriction fatigue, post-vaccination ‘freedom’),

Lower than expected vaccine efficacy or higher transmission (R) after Step 4 (21 June ish) lead to larger wave; while seasonality acts to suppress the summer wave.
Not accounting for waning immunity (natural infection or vaccination induced),
Nor accounting for the chance of vaccine escape variants.





And finally, the modelling suggests that during this summer wave, of whatever severity, at its peak about 80% of the resultant deaths will be people who have received both doses of vaccine (45% over 80 and 35% 50-79). ETA: Important to recognise that this does not represent a failure of vaccination, but simply indicates that with high population coverage there will be fewer hospitalised cases, and a higher proportion of these individuals will have been vaccinated.
There were two other models informing SAGE (from Imperial College and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)) but Warwick University produced the better one last time. Serves to illustrate the caution which the next few months will demand.


----------



## matticus (6 Apr 2021)

*



‘Link’ between AstraZeneca vaccine and blood clots, EMA official says

Click to expand...

*


> European Medicines Agency continues to recommend people get vaccinated, saying benefits outweigh any risks



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clots-ema-b1827238.html

Appaling use of scare quotes, and an appaling choice of headline. The Indy should be ashamed.


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## Eric Olthwaite (6 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clots-ema-b1827238.html
> Appaling use of scare quotes, and an appaling choice of headline. The Indy should be ashamed.



The Independent abandoned any pretence of objective reporting many years ago. Nowadays it's basically an exercise in confirmation bias for Lib Dem voters. And if some people die as collateral damage of its self-righteous mission, so be it.


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## classic33 (6 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> UK finally introduces covid testing of incoming lorry drivers.
> 
> Some claims that 8000 tourists a day arriving in the UK are mostly ignoring quarantine. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lockdown-uk-tourists-flights-coming-in-b1826845.html


Stena Ferries have required a negative test result, within 72 hours of planned boarding, since last year. Irish Ferries, the same time constraints on the test.


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## classic33 (6 Apr 2021)

An unforeseen benefit.
Repeated elsewhere?

New CSO figures have revealed that the total number of crimes recorded here* in 2020 fell by nearly 12%, dropping to their lowest level since at least 2003.

The total number of crimes here* fell by just under 12% last year, with a a total of 2,935.

This equates to about 8 crimes a day, and is the lowest figure on record, with data available from 2003.

The figures suggest the pandemic has been a major contributory factor – the likes of burglaries and assaults were at their highest levels in the first three months of the year, before most restrictions kicked in.

In fact, all crime categories saw a fall except for drugs offences, which were up by almost a third. 

*County Clare.


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## matticus (7 Apr 2021)

A friend's son is a bobby in London somewhere. He said that during the early lockdown crime almost dried up, and it became very easy to nick drug dealers: because the streets were almost empty, the only people _just casually parked up for no apparent reason_ were very very likely to be dealing!


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## ClichéGuevara (7 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> A friend's son is a bobby in London somewhere. He said that during the early lockdown crime almost dried up, and it became very easy to nick drug dealers: because the streets were almost empty, the only people _just casually parked up for no apparent reason_ were very very likely to be dealing!



Our local force used the surplus resources to have a focused campaign on known/strongly suspected offenders that could otherwise have slipped through the net until a later date, and seem to have done a reasonably thorough job. Credit to them for taking the opportunity.


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## PK99 (7 Apr 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> The *Independent abandoned any pretence of objective reporting many years ag*o. Nowadays it's basically an exercise in confirmation bias for Lib Dem voters. And if some people die as collateral damage of its self-righteous mission, so be it.



For several years after it was founded the Indy was my newspaper of choice, as it was the best non-partisan news source.

I can't remember when, but it did change and became a platform for Hobby Horses and sensationalism. I have not read it for years now.


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## mjr (7 Apr 2021)

PK99 said:


> I can't remember when, but it did change and became a platform for Hobby Horses and sensationalism. I have not read it for years now.


Arguably it became partisan under Kelner's editorship (1998-2011) and INM's ownership, which was then entrenched by the sale to now-Lord Lebedev's family. Surprisingly, it seems to be part-owned by a Saudi investor now.


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## mjr (7 Apr 2021)

One positive found after 5000-person test gig in Barcelona. That one has been blamed on a dinner party the night before, but now we wait to see if more cases are traced to the gig. https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2021...-of-lesbian-concert-tests-positive-for-covid/


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## matticus (7 Apr 2021)

There is a new pandemic spreading in my workplace; people with proper haircuts! :O (we're in England, I should stress)
Another colleague - looking rather shaggy, I must say - has persuaded a local pro to come and cut his a few days before the official "Go" day.

I wonder if this will be a thing before each new Roadmap Step; folks covertly jumping the gun in the weeks before, cos in their minds it's now _kiiiiinda _OK?


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## rockyroller (7 Apr 2021)

our town is resuming drop off for solid waste, such as old car tires, broken radios & hazardous household chemicals. I've been saving up! it's been a long wait!


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## deptfordmarmoset (9 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The SAGE meeting (85) considered modelling (Warwick Uni) of the hospitalisation levels (and worse) for England assuming relaxation of (most of) the restrictions in stages from March to June.
> Executive Summary (very precised, easy read at link: 2/3 of a page)
> 
> Models impact of relaxations in England
> ...



On the third wave question, the Zoe people have just sent out an email saying that, as UK rates fall to among the lowest in Europe, this 3rd wave is unlikely....

*Cases plummet back to July levels*​April 8, 2021​​According to the ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures, there are currently 1,924 new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on swab tests data from up to five days ago [*]. This compares to 4,152 daily cases a week ago a decrease of 54% from last week. That’s down 98% from a peak of 69,000 at the beginning of the year. In terms of prevalence, on average 1 in 1,394 people in the UK currently have symptomatic COVID. (Full table of regional results below).​*Other key findings from ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey this week: *​
The UK R value is 0.7
Regional R values are: England, 0.8, Wales, 0.5 Scotland, 0.8 (full regional breakdown included in table below).
The R values reflect the significant drop in cases in the last week
The average rate of prevalence for symptomatic disease across the UK is 1 in 1,394 (full regional breakdown included in the table below)

The ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures are based on around one million weekly reporters and the proportion of newly symptomatic users who have positive swab tests. The latest survey figures were based on data from 6,200 recent swab tests done between 20 March to 3 April 2021.​​A Tim Spector update:​


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## midlife (9 Apr 2021)

Our Trust is pretty coy about how many patients with COVID are in our hospital but have said that there are "less than 3" with none in ITU. Second peak was in the hundreds..


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## Ajax Bay (9 Apr 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> significant drop in cases in the last week


From 'official' ie UK NHS figures of *cases* reported (7-day average), it's noticeable that from 5-23 Mar, daily cases flat-lined at just under 6000 a day. But since then (13 days) the rate has dropped to 2865 (5 Apr) - so halved in a fortnight - and the cases since then give confidence that this is not a double PH Easter weekend reporting dip.
Comment: This level is well below a key 'initial prevalence' figure used to inform the SAGE modelling which predicted the third wave (see my earlier post #17410).
The latest ONS coronaviruscovid19infectionsurvey (data up to 3 Apr) figures have just been published.
NW England still a 'problem' region with cases rising a bit; the rest mostly declining or flat (does not reflect the drop of the last week).


midlife said:


> coy about how many patients with COVID are in our hospital


Since 21 Feb, daily count of confirmed COVID-19 *patients in hospital* (7-day average) has declined in an almost perfect exponential decay with an index 0.76 (per week,; about 3.4% less each day), from 16,972 to 3,349 (3 Apr). This means about 3% of all the UK's hospital beds are occupied by a patient who has tested positive for COVID-19.
Less than 0.8% of (genomically assessed positive) cases are *variants of concern*. The dominant virus in UK is still the B.1.1.7 (and similar) one, the increased transmissibility of which caused so much grief from December onwards.
Variants of concern or under investigation: data up to 7 April 2021


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## mjr (11 Apr 2021)

Beebo said:


> Boris Johnson’s post lockdown photo shoot in a pub garden has been cancelled due to the week of mourning.
> He can’t be seen to be having fun.


It is very sick that this is the death which made him think that, not the 127,000+ he is more responsible for.


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## Craig the cyclist (12 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> It is very sick that this is the death which made him think that, not the 127,000+ he is more responsible for.



How is he more responsible for 127k deaths?


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## Eric Olthwaite (12 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> It is very sick that this is the death which made him think that, not the 127,000+ he is more responsible for.



Are you suggesting that every national leader is responsible for every Covid death in their country?


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## MontyVeda (12 Apr 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> How is he more responsible for 127k deaths?


ignoring the advice of the experts in March last year is very likely to have had a significant impact on the C19 death toll. Paying people to go to the pub last summer would have likely had a significant impact of transmission rates. Ignoring different experts regarding the 2nd lockdown at the end of last summer would have likely had a significant impact on infections and deaths... Boris had a choice between treating the pandemic seriously, or treating it with reckless disregard. Unfortunately for many, Boris chose the latter.


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## Craig the cyclist (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> ignoring the advice of the experts in March last year is very likely to have had a significant impact on the C19 death toll.* Paying people to go to the pub last summer would have likely had a significant impact of transmission rates.* Ignoring different experts regarding the 2nd lockdown at the end of last summer would have likely had a significant impact on infections and deaths... Boris had a choice between treating the pandemic seriously, or treating it with reckless disregard. Unfortunately for many, Boris chose the latter.



And of course that would be completely correct............well, if it wasn't totally wrong.


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## Eric Olthwaite (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> ignoring the advice of the experts in March last year is very likely to have had a significant impact on the C19 death toll



What advice did SAGE give last March that Boris ignored? I've looked at the published minutes, at the link below, but can't find anything?

https://www.gov.uk/search/all?organ...ent=scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies


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## MontyVeda (12 Apr 2021)

what's that spike from October onwards?

who mentioned SAGE?

[edit] lets take this to the relevant thread.


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## Craig the cyclist (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> what's that spike from October onwards?



That spike in October is approximately 6 weeks (50 daysish) after 'he paid people to go to the pub', which for a disease with a roughly 10 day incubation period could also be termed 'irrelevant' in terms of Eat Out to Help Out.

Still, as ever on here, you can't just say "Yeah, sorry about that, I got that bit wrong"


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## MontyVeda (12 Apr 2021)

the eat out to help out scheme was one of many reckless decisions Boris has made.


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## Eric Olthwaite (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> who mentioned SAGE?



You referred to Boris ignoring the advice of "the" experts. Are you suggesting Boris should have ignored SAGE and conducted his own personal review of scientific opinion?


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## MontyVeda (12 Apr 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> You referred to Boris ignoring the advice of "the" experts. Are you suggesting Boris should have ignored SAGE and conducted his own personal review of scientific opinion?


WHO?


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## Eric Olthwaite (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> WHO?



So Boris should have over-ridden this country's own Chief Medical Officer and its own Chief Scientific Adviser and its own Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, to follow the advice of a body that had told the world there was no risk of human to human transmission. Sure.


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## MontyVeda (12 Apr 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> *So Boris should have over-ridden this country's own Chief Medical Officer and its own Chief Scientific Adviser and its own Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies*, to follow the advice of a body that had told the world there was no risk of human to human transmission. Sure.


Yes. 

one group has never handled a pandemic before, the other has.

and let's not forget Boris' experts are the ones who likely advised the strategy of Herd Immunity (AKA, do nothing)


----------



## matticus (12 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> It is very sick that this is the death which made him think that, not the 127,000+ he is *more responsible for.*





Eric Olthwaite said:


> Are you suggesting that every national leader is responsible for every Covid death in their country?


What I find even more perplexing is the suggestion is that he has any responsibility for _Philip's _death!


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## MontyVeda (12 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> What I find even more perplexing is the suggestion is that he has any responsibility for _Philip's _death!


It's about Boris cancelling a photoshoot of him having jollies in a pub garden in the wake of Philip's death, which might appear somewhat distasteful. Yet in the wake of over a hundred thousand Corvid Deaths, a picture of Boris enjoying a pint would have been spiffing, had Philip not died.


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## mjr (12 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> What I find even more perplexing is the suggestion is that he has any responsibility for _Philip's _death!


Only a tiny bit. Boris Is the current leader of the nation that the Duke was a citizen of. Or do you think the PM takes no responsibility for the well-being of citizens? Or something else?

If I was being cynical, I would argue that Boris was somewhat responsible because the NHS was in such a state that the Duke went private for his recent illness, but I believe that is more due to tradition and security than a royal judgment on the NHS.


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## matticus (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> Yes.
> 
> one group has never handled a pandemic before, the other has.
> 
> and let's not forget Boris' experts are the ones who likely advised the strategy of Herd Immunity (AKA, do nothing)


This is another (bizarre) example of damning a politician whichever way he jumps. 

Along similar lines to @mjr , who has the cheek to blame Boris ("a bit") for Prince Philip's death, whilst acknowledging that the Prince had steered clear of the NHS!

Bonkers


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## MontyVeda (12 Apr 2021)

Ignoring the advice of the WHO was reckless. I truly question the intelligence of all those who defend Boris' on this.


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## matticus (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> Ignoring the advice of the WHO was reckless. I truly question the intelligence of all those who defend Boris' on this.


Let's just review the facts here. You answered YES to this question:
"
_So Boris should have over-ridden this country's own Chief Medical Officer and its own Chief Scientific Adviser and its own Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, to follow the advice of a body that had told the world there was no risk of human to human transmission?_
"


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## theclaud (12 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> This is another (bizarre) example of damning a politician whichever way he jumps


Do you need a reminder of which way he jumped?


View: https://youtu.be/n3NAx3tsy-k


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## MontyVeda (12 Apr 2021)

I think the Boris fan club needs a lot of reminders... yet many of the facts fall on deaf ears


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## Mr Celine (12 Apr 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> How is he more responsible for 127k deaths?


Undermining the first lockdown by not sacking Cummings for his blatant breach of it.


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## matticus (12 Apr 2021)

Mr Celine said:


> Undermining the first lockdown by not sacking Cummings for his blatant breach of it.


How would that have saved 127k lives?


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## matticus (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> It's about Boris cancelling a photoshoot of him having jollies in a pub garden in the wake of Philip's death, which might appear somewhat distasteful. Yet in the wake of over a hundred thousand Corvid Deaths, a picture of Boris enjoying a pint would have been spiffing, had Philip not died.


OK, so what could he have done to satisfy you:
Hold a memorial service every time there was a Co(r)vid death?
Or perhaps just look sad 24x7?

Or are you just saying that it's Bad Form to commemorate _any _non-Covid death?


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## mjr (12 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> OK, so what could he have done to satisfy you:
> Hold a memorial service every time there was a Co(r)vid death?
> Or perhaps just look sad 24x7?
> 
> Or are you just saying that it's Bad Form to commemorate _any _non-Covid death?


Don't be surprised if no-one answers the above when you don't answer the questions in https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/w...l-mourning’-actually-mean.274019/post-6378573


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## MontyVeda (12 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> OK, so what could he have done to satisfy you:
> Hold a memorial service every time there was a Co(r)vid death?
> Or perhaps just look sad 24x7?
> 
> Or are you just saying that it's Bad Form to commemorate _any _non-Covid death?


I was simply trying to explain something that you'd obviously missed... and it appears you've missed it again.


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## matticus (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> I was simply trying to explain something that you'd obviously missed... and it appears you've missed it again.


Yes, I'm sure that's the problem - I'm just missing it, silly me. It couldn't possibly be that you're taking an absurd viewpoint on affairs. I'm glad we've sorted that!


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## mjr (12 Apr 2021)

UK Government gets caught trying to download NHS app users' location check-in history to its servers, as Google and Apple app stores block the update: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ck-nhs-covid-app-update-over-privacy-breaches

Remember, the independent Contact Diary (com.apozas.contactdiary) app can now scan UK check-in codes and won't ever upload to gov.uk itself — although you do still have to leave a phone number with the venue, but that can be a burner.


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## MontyVeda (12 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> Yes, I'm sure that's the problem - I'm just missing it, silly me. It couldn't possibly be that you're taking an absurd viewpoint on affairs. I'm glad we've sorted that!


I was trying to explain the POV you were querying... which wasn't actually mine. Silly you indeed.


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## matticus (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> I was trying to explain the POV you were querying... which *wasn't actually mine*. Silly you indeed.


There you go - it just took 3 little words. Perhaps worth including key information in future comments? You could save us a lot of back-n-forth!

Then again, the number of anti-Boris posts you have made before this, well, it does cast a certain light ...


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (12 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> UK Government gets caught trying to download NHS app users' location check-in history to its servers, as Google and Apple app stores block the update: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ck-nhs-covid-app-update-over-privacy-breaches
> 
> Remember, the independent Contact Diary (com.apozas.contactdiary) app can now scan UK check-in codes and won't ever upload to gov.uk itself — although you do still have to leave a phone number with the venue, but that can be a burner.


I've never managed to think of the app as NHS. It's always looked to me like the label ''NHS'' is just borrowed branding.


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## Craig the cyclist (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> With diverting this thread any further... the eat out to help out scheme was one of many reckless decisions Boris has made.



But obviously not responsible for a spike in deaths or infections. Do you agree that is correct or not?


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## mjr (12 Apr 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> But obviously not responsible for a spike in deaths or infections. Do you agree that is correct or not?


Some University of Warwick's researchers didn't agree that was obvious. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...e-coronavirus-rishi-sunak-covid-b1446586.html


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## Eric Olthwaite (12 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> The University of Warwick didn't agree that was obvious. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...e-coronavirus-rishi-sunak-covid-b1446586.html



The University of Warwick did not have an opinion on the matter. One academic there, not a scientist, but an economist with a long-standing opposition to the Conservative government that pre-dates Covid, speculates that it might have had an impact.


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## mjr (12 Apr 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> The University of Warwick did not have an opinion on the matter. One academic there, not a scientist, but an economist with a long-standing opposition to the Conservative government that pre-dates Covid, speculates that it might have had an impact.


I've edited to correct the attribution, after copying the Indie earlier.

Nevertheless, no matter what evidence-free aspersions Boris fans want to cast on that author, it was far from "obviously not responsible".

https://fullfact.org/news/did-eat-out-help-out-cause-covid-spread/ calls it "uncertain" at the moment.


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## MontyVeda (12 Apr 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> But obviously not responsible for a spike in deaths or infections. Do you agree that is correct or not?


I think encouraging the public via a £10 bribe to get them to eat-in to help-out was a fool hardy idea... but that's what happens when Boris follows the science.

Any thoughts on the other other points I raised regarding Boris' decisions?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (12 Apr 2021)

It's obvious that more social interaction = more viral transmission.

So trivially, "Eat out to help Out" subsidised increased transmission of the virus.

Equally, quantification of this is difficult at best, and probably impossible, as the Warwick study attempt notwithstanding there are huge uncertainties.

It was, however, part of a pattern of behaviour of attempting to play off economic benefits with viral disbenefits that was widely challenged at the time and culminated in the catastrophic decision to keep shops restaurants and schools open until the U turn one day into the new school term.


----------



## Ajax Bay (12 Apr 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> many of the facts fall on deaf ears





MontyVeda said:


> I think encouraging the public via a £10 bribe to get them to eat-in to help-out was a fool hardy idea... but that's what happens when Boris follows the science. Any thoughts on the other other points I raised regarding Boris' decisions?


Would you like to curate a few 'facts' for us, so we can be clear whose ears may or may not have been 'deaf'? The complete disconnect between cases (not) rising during the whole period of 'Eat out to help out' has been pointed out upthread. Edit: Yet I agree with @rt about the affect on behaviour modes into the autumn when the tiered system failed to work as expected, in significant part because of the gradual dominance of the B.1.1.7 variant with its 40% greater transmissibility.
Hope you're not going to let the Duke of Edinburgh's demise affect your opportunity for a warm beer in your local pub garden this evening. Our Wednesday cycle ride-to-the-pub drink out to socialise will be enjoying the evening sunshine on, er, Wednesday.


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## roubaixtuesday (12 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The complete disconnect between cases (not) rising during the whole period of 'Eat out to help out' has been pointed out upthread.



Cases rose throughout last summer, from the moment restrictions were reduced to their minimum.

People seem to insist the opposite frequently, I've no idea why.


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## mjr (12 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Hope you're not going to let the Duke of Edinburgh's demise affect your opportunity for a warm beer in your local pub garden this evening. Our Wednesday cycle ride-to-the-pub drink out to socialise will be enjoying the evening sunshine on, er, Wednesday.


My most local pub isn't reopening, as it turns out. I expect we'll discover which others have collapsed over the next few weeks.

The next nearest is open but it's one of few (it's still low holiday season here, it seems) and only has a small garden so I am skipping it today because I expect it to be full and queuing. The one after that opens Friday but requires booking (so is double useless for tomorrow's cycle ride to the pub) and the next is not reopening until the May date (I guess they feel their garden isn't enough to cover costs). In another direction, I've heard nothing from two about reopening, then the third reopened at 5pm but is another one that requires table booking.

I doubt whether all these clunky booking systems that kill opportunistic pub stops will be enough to keep them all afloat, but let's wait and see.


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## mjr (12 Apr 2021)

I've seen it suggested that the biggest things that change by postponing locking down (as Boris has twice and Macron has, too, among others) is that you get more deaths and more economic damage. If a country (or even large enough region) uses short, sharp lockdowns then it may need more lockdowns and ultimately spend the same total time in lockdown because, basically, you have to spend the same amount of time lowering the rate as letting it rise, but total deaths is the area under the curve and so a series of low waves means fewer total deaths than a big hump.

I'm stuck at work trying to fix an (American, I think) server so I don't have time to test that on a spreadsheet but it sounds plausible. A quick search found a paper showing correlation of slow lockdowns and high deaths, but not something modelling different lockdown strategies in an easy-to-see graphical format suitable for a discussion like this. Has anyone else seen one?

And just to remind, WHO says lockdowns should be short and sharp but aren't the core of a good covid control, which should be personal hygiene, testing, contact tracing and quarantining of infected people. I've not seen the latest data on hygiene compliance and it looks like the UK is finally getting on top of testing, but the other two bits are still fails, aren't they?

Edit: OK, I just looked at the yougov hygiene surveys: extra hand-cleaning is down to 51%, avoiding crowds down to 60%, mask-wearing down to 71%, home-working down to 20% and avoiding handling public objects down to 40%. All of those are lowest or second-lowest scores since the first wave, except for home-working which blipped lower during Gove's go-to-work-to-save-Pret effort. Do people want to stress-test the vaccines or something?


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## Ajax Bay (12 Apr 2021)

Effective contact tracing and directed but unenforced domestic/home quarantining is dependent on population discipline, motivation and belief in their value (and individual economic circumstances). In our cosmopolitan and individualist society (urbanites: I'm looking at you) this has not been a UK strength. Nor has the UK's failure to protect care home residents, where so many have died before their time.
On hygiene: is there now consensus that fomite transmission is far less a factor than aerosol? I'm still spraying an wiping the supermarket trolley handle and hand sanitiser before and after shops, but that's about it.


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## mjr (12 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Effective contact tracing and directed but unenforced domestic/home quarantining is dependent on population discipline, motivation and belief in their value (and individual economic circumstances). In our cosmopolitan and individualist society (urbanites: I'm looking at you) this has not been a UK strength.


I would have put those brackets the other way round, with "individual economic circumstances" as the primary reason many UK citizens aren't self-isolating and "population discipline, motivation and belief" as a parenthetical note, based on this commentary from the BMJ Blog https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/04/0...n-more-important-than-we-previously-realised/

Government should pay low-paid workers enough to isolate, in the interests of public health. The introduction of the £10,000 fine just deterred them from taking tests. The current situation is sick, bordering on class warfare.



> On hygiene: is there now consensus that fomite transmission is far less a factor than aerosol? I'm still spraying an wiping the supermarket trolley handle and hand sanitiser before and after shops, but that's about it.


I don't know but while that might make the hand-washing drop less worrying, there's still those reductions in mask use, avoiding crowded places and teleworking which matter either way.


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## Wobblers (12 Apr 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> And of course that would be completely correct............well, if it wasn't totally wrong.
> 
> View attachment 583483



The data is not saying what you think it is.

At the beginning of August, the infection rate was very low - less than a thousand new infections per day. Deaths were in single digits per day. In order to see any effect on the ONS graph, the death raate would need to be at 100-200 times greater. At the time, and well into the autumn, the infection rate was doubling every week. That implies seven doubling periods (2^7 = 128). It would take 7 weeks for that to happen. Furthermore, it typically takes 4 weeks from infection until death, on average. Therefore, if Eat Out to Help Out had an effect on the fatality rates, that would be expected to appear 11 weeks after it commenced.

Eat Out to Help Out started on 3rd August. From the above discussion, you'd expect a significant spike in deaths to occur 11 weeks later in mid October. That is precisely what we see. A significant jump in fatalities is seen in the third week of October. The correlation is remarkably good. Were I to uncover similar such data in the course of my research, I'd be very pleased indeed. Come to think of it, I got surfactants into laundry products based on evidence that was less impressive than that!

In hindsight, Eat Out to Help Out was ill advised. It is unlikely to have helped, and looking closely at the data strongly suggests that it was, at the least, a significant contributor to the large increase in cases we experienced last autumn.


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## PK99 (13 Apr 2021)

McWobble said:


> The data is not saying what you think it is.
> 
> At the beginning of August, the infection rate was very low - less than a thousand new infections per day. Deaths were in single digits per day. In order to see any effect on the ONS graph, the death raate would need to be at 100-200 times greater. At the time, and well into the autumn, the infection rate was doubling every week. That implies seven doubling periods (2^7 = 128). It would take 7 weeks for that to happen. Furthermore, it typically takes 4 weeks from infection until death, on average. Therefore, if Eat Out to Help Out had an effect on the fatality rates, that would be expected to appear 11 weeks after it commenced.
> 
> ...



Interesting correlation - but as we know, correrlation and causation are not the same thing.

This international comparison over the time frame you consider shows a similar pattern across a number of neighbouring EU countries. The UK data on deaths over the period does not stand out as unusual.

Does that not imply a separate common factor?


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2021)

PK99 said:


> Does that not imply a separate common factor?



You can't separate our the various factors that were driving transmission.

But on what was happening in other nearby countries:

France was quarantined from the UK due to case levels, whilst Eat out to help out was in place.

So we knew that other countries with broadly similar restrictions in place were struggling to control cases. Yet we not only failed to tighten our own restrictions, we actively subsidised actions we knew were likely to increase infections. 

And this wasn't a one-off. Next up, startlingly even at the time, the give launched its campaign to "stop skiving, save Pret, Catch Covid", aimed at getting city centres "buzzing" again(!!).

This is not hindsight:


https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/page-830#post-6115321


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## Pale Rider (13 Apr 2021)

McWobble said:


> The data is not saying what you think it is.
> 
> At the beginning of August, the infection rate was very low - less than a thousand new infections per day. Deaths were in single digits per day. In order to see any effect on the ONS graph, the death raate would need to be at 100-200 times greater. At the time, and well into the autumn, the infection rate was doubling every week. That implies seven doubling periods (2^7 = 128). It would take 7 weeks for that to happen. Furthermore, it typically takes 4 weeks from infection until death, on average. Therefore, if Eat Out to Help Out had an effect on the fatality rates, that would be expected to appear 11 weeks after it commenced.
> 
> ...



Muddled reasoning.

The eat outers were not lab rats in a controlled environment.

In the subsequent weeks after their allegedly fatal meals a great deal was happening in terms of differing restrictions, different travel patterns, different levels of compliance, and new strains - to mention a just a few.

Nor do we have any idea how many people ate out to help out.

Judging their fates in isolation is impossible.

The timespan from infection to death also seems to vary wildly, so if some eat outers subsequently died, which is almost certainly true, we can have no idea how and when they caught Covid.

Oh, and the one eat out meal I had - an annual family celebration which fell by chance in the period - was appropriately socially distanced, so it's unlikely any of us caught Covid from it.


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Nor do we have any idea how many people ate out to help out.



160 million

_£849 million had been claimed through the scheme by 30 September, providing discounts for over 160 million meals in August_

https://www.gov.uk/government/stati...ics/eat-out-to-help-out-statistics-commentary


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> it's unlikely any of us caught Covid from it



This is true of any gathering when cases are low, even if not distanced. 

The mathematics of exponentials means judging risk by individual events results in a fatal underestimate of the overall societal risk. This should be one of the key lessons for future pandemics IMO.


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## vickster (13 Apr 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> 160 million
> 
> _£849 million had been claimed through the scheme by 30 September, providing discounts for over 160 million meals in August_
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/government/stati...ics/eat-out-to-help-out-statistics-commentary


That’s how many meals, not individuals. I for one had several meals out, again very well socially distanced and impeccably managed by all staff


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2021)

vickster said:


> That’s how many meals, not individuals



Well, yes, obviously as it exceeds the population 3x over...


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## vickster (13 Apr 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Well, yes, obviously as it exceeds the population 3x over...


Indeed but you provided the data in response to @Pale Rider question on how many *people* and stated 160 million


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2021)

vickster said:


> Indeed but you provided the data in response to @Pale Rider question on how many *people* and stated 160 million



Well, we both agree now anyway


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## matticus (13 Apr 2021)

Ruby: I have to give you credit for flagging the problem back in August, when I admit that I was just living life (safely!) and trying to be optimistic:


roubaixtuesday said:


> Currently our case numbers have been rising week on week for some time.
> 
> I hear on the radio that govt are going to run an advertising campaign to get people back to offices due to the effect of low foot fall on city centres.
> 
> But surely, if cases are rising, we need to take action to reduce transmission, not actions which will increase it, particularly with the return of schools too. I genuinely don't understand govt strategy.


In hindsight, the rising figures through summer/autumn *should *have triggered Government action long before schools started back.

However, I'd like to question your recent statement:


roubaixtuesday said:


> It's obvious that more social interaction = more viral transmission.
> So trivially, "Eat out to help Out" subsidised increased transmission of the virus.
> 
> Equally, quantification of this is difficult at best, and probably impossible, as the Warwick study attempt notwithstanding there are huge uncertainties.
> ...


The *bold *phrase: surely this is inherently part of all governments' jobs during this pandemic. In every affected country. It's simply not feasible to have_ total lockdown_ - the economy tanks (which has huge long-term effects on society+healthcare), and many practical issues crop-up in the short term (e.g. essential workers and the infrastructure they need).

But how you can make blanket criticism of this? You're not the only one, so maybe I'm on the wrong side here; but I am genuinely confused!


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> But how you can make blanket criticism of this? You're not the only one, so maybe I'm on the wrong side here; but I am genuinely confused!



Yeah, that's a fair question.

First, a general point. It's very clear that those countries who have minimised viral transmission have also minimsed economic impact. So, _in general_ it must be false to say that there is a play-off between health and economics - all the evidence shows that minimising the virus actually minimises economic harm. Because if we don't we end up locked down with massive economic harm.

What does that mean in any specific circumstance? Well, I'd say, if cases are rising, we should always respond by taking action to reduce transmission. Exponential growth means we know it will always run out of control eventually, so better to act sooner rather than later. More resource to test, track and trace, or more restrictions in essence.

During last summer, cases were rising. We should have taken action to stop that. At least, we should have stopped taking action that we positively expected to exacerbate it!


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## Ajax Bay (13 Apr 2021)

So the 'trick' has to be identifying NPIs which have relatively effective 'R' reduction effect versus relatively less economic and social detriment. UK Cases bottomed out in early July (at a very low level, 7-day averages, date of specimen) and rose inexorably for 3 months thereafter (as @rt revisited).
9 Jul = 587
24 Aug = 1181 (doubling in 46 days)
2 Sep = 2369 (doubling in 11 days)
18 Sep = 4756 (doubling in 16 days)
28 Sep = 9556 (doubling in 10 days, and continues its exponential rise at that index till 5 Oct)
So 'exponential' in the 6 weeks: 23 Aug - 5 Oct. Perhaps we might infer that the effect of the tertiary residential (multiple occupancy) education term starts in September (and loads of testing) were a significant contributor together with associated leakage out to the local community,
In October the curve becomes linear. Not clear why though: steady increase 6 Oct to 10 Nov - implication is that R only a tad over 1.
And then rapid drop off which we can credit to the lockish down month 5 Nov - 1 Dec. 
Lock down Dates
Before the daily cases steep rise through December to its peak in early January, the 'minimum' was on 27 Nov - still well in the meat of that 4 week lockish down. Why did incidence start rising? We could assume the prevalence of the B.1.1.7 variant (with its +40% transmissibility) was starting to have an effect counteracting/overmatching the 'R' control (reduction) that the lockish down had achieved.

In the relevant 4 month period 20 Jun - 26 Oct, testing (PCR) quadrupled (78k --> 312k, steady increase week on week). I suggest this is a possible significant contributor to the very slow rise in incidence in July and August (and the actual prevalence increase was minimal, eating out or not).


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> In the relevant 4 month period 20 Jun - 26 Oct, testing (PCR) quadrupled (78k --> 312k, steady increase week on week). I suggest this is a possible significant contributor to the very slow rise in incidence in July and August (and the actual prevalence increase was minimal, eating out or not).



I suggest it doesn't come close to explaining it

Tests 1st July 109k.
Tests End Aug 187k

(7 day averages from ourworldindata)

This will likely have had some impact on positives, but no way explains it; test positivity _rose _over the period !

You're comparing test figures between June and October and claiming they're relevant to a case rise in July and August.


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## mjr (13 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> So the 'trick' has to be identifying NPIs which have relatively effective 'R' reduction effect versus relatively less economic and social detriment.


I agree with that...



> UK Cases bottomed out in early July [...]


But why the fark are you then looking at cases not R estimates? It's now far enough in the past that we have better estimates using well-known time series methods like Kalman filters and corrections for things like testing capacity varying.

The graph looks pretty clear: both the Bank Holiday weekend finishing "Eat Out To Spread Covid" and Gove's "Go To Work, Save Pret, Spread Covid" were great boosts — for covid. If this really was a war, as Johnson sometimes suggests, both Sunak and Gove would probably be accused of aiding the enemy by now.


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## Ajax Bay (13 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> In the relevant 4 month period 20 Jun - 26 Oct, testing (PCR) quadrupled (78k --> 312k, steady increase week on week). I suggest this is a possible significant contributor to the very slow rise in incidence in July and August (and the actual prevalence increase was minimal, eating out or not).





roubaixtuesday said:


> I suggest it doesn't come close to explaining it
> Tests 1st July 109k.
> Tests End Aug 187k
> (7 day averages from ourworldindata)
> ...


I did not say increased testing "explains" the very slow incidence rise; I suggested it was a contributing factor to the increase.
The test figures rose steadily at a relatively constant rate from 20 Jun - 26 Oct. 1 Jul - 31 Aug is a sub-section of that.
gov.uk figures (7-day averages)
1 Jul = 112k tests, 572 cases
31 Aug = 185k tests, 1978 cases


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## mjr (13 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> In every affected country. It's simply not feasible to have_ total lockdown_ - the economy tanks (which has huge long-term effects on society+healthcare), and many practical issues crop-up in the short term (e.g. essential workers and the infrastructure they need).
> 
> But how you can make blanket criticism of this? You're not the only one, so maybe I'm on the wrong side here; but I am genuinely confused!


We can make blanket criticism of it because the expert guidance has been explicit for a while now: lockdowns should be swift, strict and short. If a government delays, that means more people die, both as a direct result of exponential spread and indirectly because the lockdown has to last longer to bring cases back down, which means more economic damage and other long-term effects.

Johnson's government had not yet learned this lesson by January, dithering for weeks to months each time, but hopefully maybe vaccination and seasonality means we don't discover whether they've learned it for lockdown 4. Macron's government doesn't seem to have learned this, trying to postpone France's current lockdown far too long since mid-Feb at least. Merkel's government appears to have farked up this time, too, listening to anti-lockdown idiots too long, possibly worried by elections, when it looks like the coming lockdown would have been best about a month ago.

But it's fair to point out that this is easier to say with hindsight. I'm not sure if anywhere has got this consistently correct. By definition, when a country needs to lockdown to recover, then testing, tracing and quarantine have failed, so multiple lockdowns means those public health measures failed multiple times and what chance is there that a country with a failing public health system can still trigger a lockdown quickly?


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I did not say increased testing "explains" the very slow incidence rise; I suggested it was a contributing factor to the increase.
> The test figures rose steadily at a relatively constant rate from 20 Jun - 26 Oct. 1 Jul - 31 Aug is a sub-section of that.
> gov.uk figures (7-day averages)
> 1 Jul = 112k tests, 572 cases
> 31 Aug = 185k tests, 1978 cases



Apologies, I misread your post. 

I stand by the fact that all the evidence is that prevalence genuinely increased through July and August - and it was obvious at the time. 

Because we're looking at exponentials, that it was at a low level isn't really all that relevant IMO.


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## Eric Olthwaite (13 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> We can make blanket criticism of it because the expert guidance has been explicit for a while now: lockdowns should be swift, strict and short.



Yes I think the success of the Welsh October lockdown demonstrated that beyond doubt.


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> I agree with that...
> 
> 
> But why the fark are you then looking at cases not R estimates? It's now far enough in the past that we have better estimates using well-known time series methods like Kalman filters and corrections for things like testing capacity varying.
> ...



I think you're torturing the data there TBH.

Specifically the huge spike is almost certainly the result of the testing shortage in Sept being resolved rather than a genuine spike in R.

I'm extremely skeptical R values derived from nationwide case data tell us much more than the general trend rather than impact of specific events or policies.


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Apr 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> Yes I think the success of the Welsh October lockdown demonstrated that beyond doubt.



The Welsh October lock down was highly effective in reducing cases. 

Returning immediately to the same restrictions known to allow R>1 was highly effective in putting them straight back up again.


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## matticus (13 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> We can make blanket criticism of it


No, you have misunderstood my post. Maybe that is my fault, I do not know. Please see the 9 words that I highlighted in bold.

Ruby has correctly interpreted my post, and has answered quite adequately for me. I felt it was polite to point out your misunderstanding, which is the reason I'm ignoring your long - and no doubt well-constructed - reply.


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## mjr (13 Apr 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> Yes I think the success of the Welsh October lockdown demonstrated that beyond doubt.


That wasn't swift: it was over a month later than needed, so it broke the wave but didn't get cases down enough and, like England, Wales entered the third wave from a higher level.

But on the short/sharp aspect, it seems to have worked: it achieved a comparable reduction in about two weeks to what England's "lockdown lite" did in four.


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## mjr (13 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> No, you have misunderstood my post. Maybe that is my fault, I do not know. Please see the 9 words that I highlighted in bold.


I see no bold highlight. I probably should have questioned that. It would be good if you trimmed the quote and/or repeat the relevant excerpt, rather than relying on bold in future. This site seems only to show the first few lines of a quote.


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## matticus (13 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> I see no bold highlight. I probably should have questioned that. It would be good if you trimmed the quote and/or repeat the relevant excerpt, rather than relying on bold in future. This site seems only to show the first few lines of a quote.


Fair point.
I did trim the quote so that it all displayed in the PREVIEW window...


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## Ajax Bay (13 Apr 2021)

The huge spike in second half of September is surely due to students travelling to multiple occupancy residences/halls from across the UK, combined with readily available testing (uni organised).
Rt is more difficult to calculate with useful accuracy when cases are very low (July and August). It's probably partly why SAGE have not agreed an estimate for the current Rt.


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## Ajax Bay (13 Apr 2021)

UCL/UCLH paper published 12 Apr 2021
Looks at patients in hospital Nov-Dec 2020 with SARS-CoV-2; 2/3rds with the B.1.1.7 variant, 1/3 with the 'old' variant. Examines any difference in severity and/or mortality (to patients already in hospital). Notes viral loads (from PCR test data: cycle threshold value).
SIAL: Once hospitalised, no difference. VoC-infected patients had greater viral load: proxy for increased transmissibility.
"Emerging evidence exists of increased transmissibility of B.1.1.7, and we found increased virus load by proxy for B.1.1.7 in our data."
"Our data . . . provide initial reassurance that severity in hospitalised patients with B.1.1.7 is not markedly different from severity in those with [old variant], [useful method] as we move into an era of emerging variants."
NERVTAG have taken evidence: PHE: "an updated matched cohort analysis has reported a death risk ratio for B.1.1.7-infected individuals compared to non-VoC of 1.65 (95%CI 1.21-2.25)" NB Infected individuals not (yet) hospitalised.


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## Wobblers (14 Apr 2021)

PK99 said:


> Interesting correlation - but as we know, correrlation and causation are not the same thing.
> 
> This international comparison over the time frame you consider shows a similar pattern across a number of neighbouring EU countries. The UK data on deaths over the period does not stand out as unusual.
> 
> ...



"Correlation isn't causation" isn't an argument. I made a prediction based on the observed behaviour of the virus. The data supports that prediction.Ii also suggested a causal mechanism - which after all was exactly how I was able to make that prediction. You'll need to demonstrate that the mechanism proposed isn't reasonable, or that the data doesn't support the conclusions. You've failed to do either.

Your graph does not support your claim that other countries showed similar patterns. We're dealing with exponential growth - the derivative of an exponent is also an exponential function. Your graph is a linear plot: almost all the growth visible appears in the last two doubling periods. Early growth on a linear scale appears flat - whch is unfortunate, as that is where the most important information lies. This is why we use log plots for such data. Despite that,it's quite apparent that the doubling period for each country is visibly different in the last weeks - this indicates differing growth rates. That certainly is NOT consistent with the idea that these countries were experiencing similar growth patterns.


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## Wobblers (14 Apr 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Muddled reasoning.
> 
> The eat outers were not lab rats in a controlled environment.
> 
> ...



You need to understand that social distancing does not prevent transmission, it merely reduces the probability of transmission. Someone who's infected will expel tens of thousands of viruses with every sneeze, and they'll travel considerably further than 2 metres. Being outdoors will be to little benefit should you be unlucky enough to be in the firing line of such a sneeze. Indoors, there is also the additional risk of aerosol transmission. 

While the probability of infection would have been low for any one individual meal (though rather higher than most people realise) we're talking about many tens of millions of meals. That's rolling the dice tens of millions of times. It's inconceivably improbable that there were no extra infections brought about from Eat Out to Help Out.

The dominant variant in the UK at the time was the wild type (original Wuhan) one. Of course there were other factors at work: genotyping showed that there were quite a few variants of wild type Covid imported from abroad by people going on holiday in August. At the same time that government policy was encouraging mixing for what is actually a high risk activity for transmission. Increased mixing when case numbers are increasing is not a good combination. Eat Out was ill timed: the appropriate time for it is this summer, when most people have had at least one vaccine dose. I don't have any objections to Eat Out: actually, I think it's a reasonable way to boost the economy and aid the hospitality sector.


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## PK99 (14 Apr 2021)

McWobble said:


> "Correlation isn't causation" isn't an argument. I made a prediction based on the observed behaviour of the virus. The data supports that prediction.Ii also suggested a causal mechanism - which after all was exactly how I was able to make that prediction. You'll need to demonstrate that the mechanism proposed isn't reasonable, or that the data doesn't support the conclusions. You've failed to do either.
> 
> Your graph does not support your claim that other countries showed similar patterns. We're dealing with exponential growth - the derivative of an exponent is also an exponential function. Your graph is a linear plot: almost all the growth visible appears in the last two doubling periods. Early growth on a linear scale appears flat - whch is unfortunate, as that is where the most important information lies. This is why we use log plots for such data. Despite that,it's quite apparent that the doubling period for each country is visibly different in the last weeks - this indicates differing growth rates. That certainly is NOT consistent with the idea that these countries were experiencing similar growth patterns.



Ok.

It's decades snce I used to be familiar with such things. So excuse me if I'm a little slow ...

Here is the same data in log plot form.

There does not seem to be anything distinctly different about the UK data over this period


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## Ajax Bay (15 Apr 2021)

I have replied to this here (from the vaccine thread).


mjr said:


> I "decried" setting dates up to June back in February, not the "not earlier than". I just doubt the "not earlier than" is real. As you know, I do not share your confidence in this government.
> . . . I think it's rather poor form to use "good" to describe the level of infection that 18-29s have been subjected to.
> That's unproven surge testing, which experts say is "not yet clear whether the testing of hundreds of thousands of people in the capital will stop a cluster of dozens of cases growing."
> . . . I feel the final restrictions should not be lifted until the number of cases is within the capacity of test and trace, as well as vaccination being generally available, but it's looking like test and trace is still not working. The vaccination programme seeming to work fairly well . . . we need both.
> I think everyone knows that you'd rather not see any criticism of your glorious leader... but it ain't irrelevant: it's Boris who stood at the lectern and set out dates, not data, for unlocking which seem to be being followed slavishly with little regard for the vaccination programme. The desire to be seen as the nice guy handing out unlocking sweeties is a risk.


*The plan* "not earlier than" is 'real' so far.
*18-29s* I agree with @PK99, it's not a passive thing. The level of previous infection in the 18-29s is high because of that cohort's behaviour, influenced by their wish to be sociable and the failure to comprehend that while the threat to them individually is very, very low, if infected their part in the transmission path of the virus and its spread to more vulnerable friends and relatives (say) can (and has) caused the latter's serious illness and _in extremis_ deaths. Such criticism will not apply to sets within that cohort, for example: the sensible ones who were inevitably exposed to risk at the start of the university year, and the younger element of care and health workers who society needed to keep working.
*Surge testing* Do you think it's a good idea to address VoC (eg B.1.351) with specific area surge testing? If not, what do you suggest?
*Capacity of test and trace* What level of cases do you think is "within the capacity of test and trace"? Currently there are less than 20k cases per week. I hope that the T&T effort (and resources) will revert to regional/local Public Health led effort rather than the national approach which seems to have been less successful than hoped.
*Leadership* The Prime Minister and the Queen are both leaders of the United Kingdom: your leaders. Your Government has (for England) set out a plan, the putative dates of which depend on 4 clearly articulated tests, which I'll share with you again:
The UK Government's 4 tests for whether it is safe to reduce restrictions, "no earlier than" the dates quoted are:

"the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
"evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
"infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
"our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern"
24 Mar: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/page-1158#post-6358608


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## mjr (15 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> *The plan* "not earlier than" is 'real' so far.


So what has happened later than the specified date?



> *18-29s* I agree with @PK99, it's not a passive thing. The level of previous infection in the 18-29s is high because of that cohort's behaviour, influenced by their wish to be sociable and the failure to comprehend [...]


That sounds a lot like victim-blaming mixed with collective punishment. Would you say road casualty rates among cyclists are only as high as they are because of cyclist behaviour, influenced by their wish to be mobile and the failure to comprehend their part in the system?



> *Surge testing* Do you think it's a good idea to address VoC (eg B.1.351) with specific area surge testing? If not, what do you suggest?


I think surge testing is part of it — but it needs to be real surge testing, not the reported 700/day in a ward of 17,000 — but I suggest (taking from iSAGE members) they also start ring vaccination and short (10-14 day) strict local lockdowns.



> *Capacity of test and trace* What level of cases do you think is "within the capacity of test and trace"? Currently there are less than 20k cases per week. I hope that the T&T effort (and resources) will revert to regional/local Public Health led effort rather than the national approach which seems to have been less successful than hoped.


I don't know. We're currently comfortably inside testing capacity (about 655,000/day) but tracing capacity is still not published, as far as I could see.

I share your hope that T&T returns to local areas, as it has already for Norfolk and Suffolk. As I expect you know, we're sending Dido Harding over £350m a week: let's fund our NHS instead, eh?



> *Leadership* The Prime Minister and the Queen are both leaders of the United Kingdom: your leaders.


I don't recognise either of them as leading me. They just happen to rule over me for now due primarily to accidents of birth and geography.


----------



## Ajax Bay (15 Apr 2021)

@mjr: So what has happened later than the specified date? Nothing aiui.
_So the "real" plan is what's being followed._
@mjr: That sounds a lot like victim-blaming mixed with collective punishment. Would you say road casualty rates among cyclists are only as high as they are because of cyclist behaviour, influenced by their wish to be mobile and the failure to comprehend their part in the system? _Infection in that 18-29 cohort is higher than the population average. I offered possible reasons why that was so. No. Road casualty rates among cyclists are dependent on the number of cycling hours: more of those = higher casualty rates. Establishing a causality between riding style with casualty rates, even when a proportion wear effective protection, is probably impossible. For individuals, time on the road is beneficial to their health, notwithstanding the low risk of incident involved. If a beer is involved, that enhances the benefit._


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## shep (15 Apr 2021)

I think you lads need to get out for a Pint!


----------



## mjr (15 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Infection in that 18-29 cohort is higher than the population average. I offered possible reasons why that was so.


OK, "possible reasons". What you wrote before looked like certainty. While your interpretation is possible, the evidence for it is not great. And there's still the problem of the anti-18-29 attitude seeming like collective punishment.



> No. Road casualty rates among cyclists are dependent on the number of cycling hours: more of those = higher casualty rates. Establishing a causality between riding style with casualty rates, even when a proportion wear effective protection, is probably impossible. For individuals, time on the road is beneficial to their health, notwithstanding the low risk of incident involved. If a beer is involved, that enhances the benefit.


I hope others will agree with me that the above ignores a rather large four-wheeled factor in cycling casualty rates... rather similar to how its author downplays a certain rather large factor in the UK coronavirus outbreak.

Now if you'll excuse me, I've some beer on click and collect!


----------



## Ajax Bay (15 Apr 2021)

shep said:


> I think you lads need to get out for a Pint!


Ride to the pub (small group) was yesterday evening, @shep. Brilliant sunset looking out towards Dartmoor. I fear it was a 'des' rather than an 'un'. The marquee was just warm enough but a bit colder on the 75 minute ride home. Some in the group are suckers for (@mjr's) _soi-disant_ "collective punishment". Others are just wheel suckers.


----------



## PK99 (15 Apr 2021)

PK99 said:


> Things are looking better over the Channel.
> 
> Clearly past the inflection point and close to peak in most cases.
> 
> ...



An update on this comparison plot:

A couple of weeks ago, the data suggested that a peak had been reached.

This updated plot shows that there has been a further uptick in the EU, while the UK downward trend continues (despite the opening of schools)


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## Wobblers (16 Apr 2021)

PK99 said:


> Ok.
> 
> It's decades snce I used to be familiar with such things. So excuse me if I'm a little slow ...
> 
> ...



Thanks.

So... the exponent for the UK, France , Germany and the Netherlands was similar in October, so I was wrong to say that the doubling periods were different for those countries. An excellent lesson on how linear plots can easily mislead when it comes to exponential growth! But Belgium is clearly different, so something different was going on in both those cases.

We can look at the inflexion point, where steady or falling death rates change to increasing rates. In August and early September, the data is noisy. However, it looks like Germany and Britain both showed an uptick in early September, while increases in the Netherlands and Belgium were significantly later. France also has a surge in deaths around this time. 

Given that deaths are a reflection of infection rates 4 weeks earlier, I think it's reasonable to conclude from this that infection rates were being influenced by local conditions (degree of mixing and restrictions) in August. There are differences between countries, as you'd expect. The timing of the uptick in the UK fatality rate is certainly consistent with Eat Out to Help Out (rise in infection rates in August).

However, all countries show an increase in that time frame, and that's unlikely to be a coincidence. Given that we know that many Covid cases were essentially imported into the UK by returning holidaymakers, I think it's likely that the same thing was happening on the continent - that would certainly account for the closeness of the timing. This was likely the main driver for the increases we saw at the end of August. Eat Out may well have accelerated the process, as it was a significant change in conditions between July and August, but ultimately is unlikely that have been the principal driver for the autumn surge.


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## PK99 (16 Apr 2021)

McWobble said:


> Thanks.
> 
> So... the exponent for the UK, France , Germany and the Netherlands was similar in October, so I was wrong to say that the doubling periods were different for those countries. An excellent lesson on how linear plots can easily mislead when it comes to exponential growth! But Belgium is clearly different, so something different was going on in both those cases.
> 
> ...



Expanding the comparator countries I still see nothing distinctive about the UK pattern following the start of EOTHO - the pattern seems pretty consistent across the countries shown. No link to EOTHO is apparent.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (16 Apr 2021)

PK99 said:


> Expanding the comparator countries I still see nothing distinctive about the UK pattern following the start of EOTHO - the pattern seem pretty consistent across the countries shown
> 
> View attachment 584203



I think, as I've said before, that it's impossible to deconvolute the effect if EOTHO from other measures, and it's highly unlikely to be a single, critical driver. 

All of those comparator countries also relaxed restrictions in various ways in that period. 

EOTHO was _subsidising_ risky behaviour, which is why it's come in for particular criticism.


----------



## rockyroller (16 Apr 2021)

finally got my hair cut after a rather annoying break due to my cutter having "a covid situation". turns out everyone in his house got it. he, his wife & their 7 yr old son. when telling me about it, he seemed to minimize it, & possibly rightly so? he had sinus pressure, still has loss of smell & tinnitus (ringing in ears), his wife had a bad cough & his son had no symptoms at all. I reminded him approx 1,000 Americans & 3,000 Brazilians are still dying every day. also told him about my good experience getting vaccinated. no reaction from him, such as: "wow, that's great, wish we were vaccinated". internally I shook my head. & his mask wearing is weak, often his nose is uncovered. glad to get my hair cut but more relieved he & his family came thru their experience seemingly successfully. I hope he gets vaccinated & stops his thinking that it's no big deal. didn't he mind losing 2-3 weeks of income? wasn't he terrified when his Wife developed a bad cough?


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## matticus (16 Apr 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> EOTHO was _subsidising_ risky behaviour, which is why it's come in for particular criticism.


... most of it with hindsight goggles on.

I've just flicked back through this thread over the end-of-July, early-Aug period (EOTHO was announced early July) and I've yet to find a single post saying:
"_EOTHO is madness with infections on the increase_."
It's all masks, holiday quarantine rules, exam results talk.

(I didn't read every single flippin post, but the overall trend seemed clear!)

To me it's just a small blip down in the noise of this pandemic. One might leap to conclusions about the political motivations for discussing it ...


----------



## roubaixtuesday (16 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> ... most of it with hindsight goggles on.



General comment at the time on how cases rising should be tackled and strategy made no sense:



roubaixtuesday said:


> Currently our case numbers have been rising week on week for some time.
> 
> I hear on the radio that govt are going to run an advertising campaign to get people back to offices due to the effect of low foot fall on city centres.
> 
> But surely, if cases are rising, we need to take action to reduce transmission, not actions which will increase it, particularly with the return of schools too. I genuinely don't understand govt strategy.



Specifically shortly later on EOTHO.



roubaixtuesday said:


> So the plonkers paid us to go out into overcrowded restaurants to catch covid. This is literally true.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (16 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> To me it's just a small blip down in the noise of this pandemic.



Agreed, and a point I've made myself. 




matticus said:


> One might leap to conclusions about the political motivations for discussing it ...



It's emblematic of the catastrophic mistakes made.


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## mjr (16 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> I've just flicked back through this thread over the end-of-July, early-Aug period (EOTHO was announced early July) and I've yet to find a single post saying:
> "_EOTHO is madness with infections on the increase_."
> It's all masks, holiday quarantine rules, exam results talk.


Who would be discussing it "end-of-July, early-Aug"? All the discussion of the announcement had subsided and it was too soon for any possible effects to be showing in reports, let alone discussion of such reports.

Why not look at the period of the announcement? Plenty of sarcasm about it being a stupid move then: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6063693


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## matticus (16 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> Who would be discussing it "end-of-July, early-Aug"? All the discussion of the announcement had subsided and it was too soon for any possible effects to be showing in reports, let alone discussion of such reports.


Thus illustrating my point about hindsight!

If it was such an obviously dangerous move, would the CycleChat Experts sit through August without a murmur of discontent?? Come off it - there were a hundred* posts criticising people for riding their bikes in the fresh air on their own!

*may be a _gross _underestimate


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## mjr (16 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> Thus illustrating my point about hindsight!
> 
> If it was such an obviously dangerous move, would the CycleChat Experts sit through August without a murmur of discontent??


Yes because the predictions had all been made well before then. No point repeating them instead of waiting for time to tell.



> Come off it - there were a hundred* posts criticising people for riding their bikes in the fresh air on their own!
> 
> *may be a _gross _underestimate


Oh the bike-haters on here don't seem to mind repeating themselves endlessly.


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## Wobblers (16 Apr 2021)

PK99 said:


> Expanding the comparator countries I still see nothing distinctive about the UK pattern following the start of EOTHO - the pattern seems pretty consistent across the countries shown. No link to EOTHO is apparent.
> 
> View attachment 584203



I did comment that the data was noisy. You've proven nothing other than including more countries makes the data even more noisy. Despite this, there are differences - which you've yet to explain. (Hint: Belgium is not "consistent" with other countries.) I've pointed out, as has roubaixtuesday, that Eat Out was only one effect amongst several. A simple comparison between countries without first smoothing the data to reduce the noise is unlikely to yield much - because the signal we're looking for is of similar magnitude.


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## mjr (19 Apr 2021)

New interview with the Uo Warwick researcher in https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2021/apr/19/did-eat-out-to-help-out-cost-lives


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## deptfordmarmoset (19 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> New interview with the Uo Warwick researcher in https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2021/apr/19/did-eat-out-to-help-out-cost-lives


I was just about to post that up, having just listened to it.


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## Ajax Bay (19 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> interview with the Uo Warwick researcher [on EOHO]


Thank you for sharing that - well found! Looks a quality piece of work (end Oct 2020) with persuasive conclusions. Let's hope authorities take notice and don't waste money on stuff like that again. Once restrictions are relaxed so as to allow indoor dining (no earlier than 17 May), people will not need encouragement/subsidy to indulge in that. And two thirds the adult population will have been vaccinated.
"Dr Thiemo Fetzer of the CAGE Research Centre in the Economics Department at the University of Warwick analyses the causal impact of ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ on COVID-19 infections."
"Areas with a higher rate of uptake (both from restaurants and consumers) experienced a sharp increase in the emergence of new COVID-19 infection clusters a week after the scheme began."
From the paper: "A back of the envelope calculation suggests that the program is accountable for between 8 to 17 percent of all new local infection clusters during that time period."
7 Aug - UK cases = 983 5 weeks later: 11 Sep - UK cases = 3102 A 25% increase in case rates every week.


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## Johnno260 (20 Apr 2021)

The nuts side of my family basically disowned anyone who has been vaccinated, my sister, mother brother as they have been vaccinated, my wife was removed from all social media as she is vaccinated and as a nurse she is a government puppet.

A quote from my aunt " You chose your side"

She then cries and complains that this situations is creating divides? lol no people like you are.

I said good riddance, I said the false truths and anti mask slogans you spread are the reason others get sick and this illness spreads, my aunt has taken to going into stores un-masked so when she is challenged she creates a scene, so basically gives some poor shop keeper or a kid making some money in a store grief, this is someone who is meant to be a grown adult.

I said their whole theory to me reeks of people throwing their rattle out the pram as they have been asked to do things they don't agree with for the good of others, basically amounts to entitled human trash.


----------



## rockyroller (20 Apr 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> " You chose your side"


wow, just wow


----------



## lazybloke (20 Apr 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> The nuts side of my family basically disowned anyone who has been vaccinated, my sister, mother brother as they have been vaccinated, my wife was removed from all social media as she is vaccinated and as a nurse she is a government puppet.
> 
> A quote from my aunt " You chose your side"
> 
> ...


Why does the aunt see it as a matter of taking sides; did you wife try to engage in a social media "discussion"? 
What's the saying - "never argue with an idiot , they'll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience"!

Sad for your wife, but you can do without crazy argumentative people in your life; saying "good riddance" might be the best option.


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## Johnno260 (20 Apr 2021)

lazybloke said:


> Why does the aunt see it as a matter of taking sides; did you wife try to engage in a social media "discussion"?
> What's the saying - "never argue with an idiot , they'll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience"!
> 
> Sad for your wife, but you can do without crazy argumentative people in your life; saying "good riddance" might be the best option.



In all fairness to my wife she hasn't posted anything on social media about the Covid situation, she was just trying to say happy birthday to my aunt when she noticed she wasn't a friend any longer but also blocked, my other family members who have been vaccinated said the same thing, so when the question was asked it was a case of her saying they picked their side, whatever that's supposed to mean.

I'm not blocked/removed and I'm the one who called them out on their posts and behavior the most, some of what they have said is down right dangerous, even posting things to say in court to try and evade being charged with Covid fines.

I have pretty much given up engaging directly, but I do report some of the utter trash they post, a good chunk of what I report is blocked/removed.

But in all fairness I won't miss their behavior and entitlement at all, I think it's a tragic state to be in.

My aunt still takes the mickey out of me when I retorted on her nano tracker in the vaccine comments, I said coming from the person who is worried about being tracked, yet owns a smartphone, GPS smart watch, and uses google, she didn't get my comment and laughs and says what have these things got to do with being tracked, I mean how can you argue/educate that level of stupid?


----------



## vickster (20 Apr 2021)

The aunt sounds like a crackpot, just ignore/block as appropriate


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## lazybloke (20 Apr 2021)

vickster said:


> The aunt sounds like a crackpot, just ignore/block as appropriate


I'll agree with that. Some people are just too toxic to have in your life. We tried for many years to accommodate the mood swings and unreasonable behaviour of my brother-in-law. It was such a relief when he eventually decided to break off all contact.

Don't think I could have coped if he'd been an antivaxxer too.


----------



## mjr (21 Apr 2021)

Meanwhile, India imposing tighter lockdowns after seeing doubling of cases in a week, new "double mutant" variants and deaths of people without known comorbidities. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56811315


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## mjr (21 Apr 2021)

Belgium lifts travel restrictions from Aus, NZ, Thailand and Rwanda. I doubt they're reciprocal!


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## DRM (21 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> Meanwhile, India imposing tighter lockdowns after seeing doubling of cases in a week, new "double mutant" variants and deaths of people without known comorbidities. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56811315


And was reported on BBC news this evening that people are clamouring to get flights to Britain before travel restrictions kick in, how f*#+ing selfish can people be


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## PeteXXX (21 Apr 2021)

DRM said:


> And was reported on BBC news this evening that people are clamouring to get flights to Britain before travel restrictions kick in, how f*#+ing selfish can people be


And how stupid are we for allowing it.


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## DRM (21 Apr 2021)

PeteXXX said:


> And how stupid are we for allowing it.


Exactly, the first plane here from India should be refueled and sent straight back


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## Johnno260 (21 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> Meanwhile, India imposing tighter lockdowns after seeing doubling of cases in a week, new "double mutant" variants and deaths of people without known comorbidities. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56811315



I have some work colleagues from India and they’re properly scared with the latest wave.


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## vickster (21 Apr 2021)

DRM said:


> And was reported on BBC news this evening that people are clamouring to get flights to Britain before travel restrictions kick in, how f*#+ing selfish can people be


Perhaps they’d like to get back to their home, partner, children, parents here?


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## deptfordmarmoset (21 Apr 2021)

vickster said:


> Perhaps they’d like to get back to their home, partner, children, parents here?


Which is perfectly natural but without a dependable quarantine system here, it's a licence to infect partner, children and parents.


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## classic33 (21 Apr 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Which is perfectly natural but without a dependable quarantine system here, it's a licence to infect partner, children and parents.


They are made to quarantine before leaving their arrival airport. Nearly all have hotels that can be used, keeping them all in one place.


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## deptfordmarmoset (21 Apr 2021)

classic33 said:


> They are made to quarantine before leaving their arrival airport. Nearly all have hotels that can be used, keeping them all in one place.


If it's dependable, I have no quibbles.


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## classic33 (21 Apr 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> If it's dependable, I have no quibbles.


Make the airlines and airport operators responsible.


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## rockyroller (21 Apr 2021)

that country is on fire. I read a cpl individual sad stories


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## deptfordmarmoset (21 Apr 2021)

classic33 said:


> Make the airlines and airport operators responsible.


It hinges on whether they could have the power to enforce safety. But once they're out of the airport and customs, doesn't that power pass to the police? And are the police sufficiently resourced for that?


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## classic33 (21 Apr 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It hinges on whether they could have the power to enforce safety. But once they're out of the airport and customs, doesn't that power pass to the police? And are the police sufficiently resourced for that?


They don't allow them to leave airport property. As part of being allowed into the country.


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## rockyroller (21 Apr 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It hinges on whether they could have the power to enforce safety. But once they're out of the airport and customs, doesn't that power pass to the police? And are the police sufficiently resourced for that?


reminds me of the movie : "The Terminal" where the Chief Airport Director wanted Tom Hanks character off his hands

good rental, BTW


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## deptfordmarmoset (21 Apr 2021)

classic33 said:


> They don't allow them to leave airport property. As part of being allowed into the country.


Sorry, I thought they were quarantined in hotels, which are clearly not airport property, but I'll drop it there. My concern isn't international travel, reuniting families, etc, it's the risk of contagion and the organisational ability to minimise that risk.


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## DRM (22 Apr 2021)

vickster said:


> Perhaps they’d like to get back to their home, partner, children, parents here?


They shouldn't be travelling from here to anywhere in the first place, so why should they come back here, and start infecting everyone else, particularly their loved ones, even if they couldn't care less about the rest of us


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## vickster (22 Apr 2021)

DRM said:


> They shouldn't be travelling from here to anywhere in the first place, so why should they come back here, and start infecting everyone else, particularly their loved ones, even if they couldn't care less about the rest of us


There are permitted reasons to travel


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## mjr (22 Apr 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Which is perfectly natural but without a dependable quarantine system here, it's a licence to infect partner, children and parents.


BBC Look East this morning reports 001Doctor have been sending returning-traveller swab test results quickly: without the test kits being sent back! Reportedly, they told their customers it was an error due to exceptional demand. It is not clear how many fake negative certificates have been emailed out.


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## mjr (22 Apr 2021)

classic33 said:


> They don't allow them to leave airport property. As part of being allowed into the country.


Isn't that only true for "red list" countries? Which India is not until tomorrow.


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## deptfordmarmoset (22 Apr 2021)

Remember Track and Trace? There's a new one - https://www.transparency.org.uk/track-and-trace-uk-PPE-procurement-corruption-risk-VIP-lane-research. I got the link to the report from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...acts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption


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## classic33 (22 Apr 2021)

mjr said:


> Isn't that only true for "red list" countries? Which India is not until tomorrow.


It was a way of enforcing the quarantine rules/regulations by making the airlines and airport operators responsible for ensuring passengers quarantine.

Just an idea, nowt else.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Apr 2021)

vickster said:


> Perhaps they’d like to get back to their home, partner, children, parents here?
> There are permitted reasons to travel


Perfectly reasonable need to get back, once they are there.
But are there data on the spread of reasons that the outward travel was made? To one country or another. I assume that the volume of travel to India is mostly family/arranged marriage/funeral rather than work related. I for one have not seen my nonogenarian mother for over 6 months, and she lives in this country. Do the airlines police reasons for travel?

This is an overview of reasonable excuses for international travel from the UK.
For a longer list, see the regulations.
*Work *Travel for business or work purposes where it is not reasonably possible to complete that work within the UK.
*Volunteering *To provide voluntary services, where it is not reasonably possible to provide those voluntary services from within the UK.
*Education *For academic studies or professional qualifications where physical presence outside the UK is reasonably necessary or where activities must be completed overseas. An international student studying in the UK can travel outside the UK to return home on one occasion before 29 April 2021 for the purposes of a vacation.
*Medical or visits to provide care
Weddings or civil partnerships* You can only travel out of the UK to attend your wedding or civil partnership, or a close family member’s wedding or civil partnership. In both cases one or both people getting married or entering into a civil partnership must live outside the UK.
*Funerals *It is still a reasonable excuse to travel abroad for a funeral, but it will not be a reasonable excuse to travel for commemorative events, or to visit a burial ground.
*Other reasonable excuses *There are further reasonable excuses, for example:

to fulfil legal obligations
to carry out activities related to buying, selling, letting or renting a residential property
travel in order to exercise custody rights
for the purposes of arrangements for contact between siblings where they do not live in the same country and one or more of them is in local authority care or equivalent from another country
to vote in a referendum or election held outside of the UK and it is not reasonably possible to vote in the UK
to present oneself to a judicial or administrative authority


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## vickster (22 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Perfectly reasonable need to get back, once they are there.
> But are there data on the spread of reasons that the outward travel was made? To one country or another. I assume that the volume of travel to India is mostly family/arranged marriage/funeral rather than work related. I for one have not seen my nonogenarian mother for over 6 months, and she lives in this country. Do the airlines police reasons for travel?
> 
> This is an overview of reasonable excuses for international travel from the UK.
> ...


I have no idea. There are people who will need to travel for work all over the world, commercial but also charity workers etc.
I’m all in favour of strict testing and strictly policed quarantine for all arrivals.

You can see your mother for care reasons if you need to


----------



## Ajax Bay (22 Apr 2021)

Indoors/Outdoors - w*hat are the odds of infection?*
There have now been a number of studies that have attempted to quantify the risk of outdoor COVID-19 spread.

Last October, Chinese researchers published a paper in the journal Indoor Air that compiled information on 7,324 cases and included information about where the virus was caught. Only one documented outbreak occurred outdoors, in a village in Shangqiu, Henan—where a 27-year-old man became infected after having a conversation outdoors with a carrier in January 2020.

More recently, the Irish Times sought information from government authorities on 232,164 cases of COVID caught in the country until March 24, 2021. In total, 262 involved outdoor transmission, representing just 0.1 percent of the total.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55680305
https://assets.publishing.service.g...ors_contributing_to_risk_of_SARS_18122020.pdf
"Environment - Evidence continues to suggest that the vast majority of transmission happens in indoor spaces; recent reviews considering data from several countries found very little evidence of outdoor transmission for SARS-CoV-2, influenza or other respiratory viruses."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.04.20188417v2
Points out that it is likely to be closed/indoors and proximity activities associated with an outdoor 'event' which is much more likely to be the transmission 'opportunity' (eg indoor drink/snacking afterwards or sharing transport to/from event). Parkrun funded research.


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## rockyroller (22 Apr 2021)

when they lift mask mandates must it be all or nothing? why can't they say something like, it's ok to be outside, 6 ft away from ppl w/o your mask. I'm really tired of riding my bike w/ a freaking mask on


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## matticus (22 Apr 2021)

rockyroller said:


> when they lift mask mandates must it be all or nothing? why can't they say something like,* it's ok to be outside, 6 ft away from ppl w/o your mask. *I'm really tired of riding my bike w/ a freaking mask on


Works OK like that in the UK. (not just when exercising - you can walk/be anywhere outdoors without a mask)


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## vickster (22 Apr 2021)

rockyroller said:


> when they lift mask mandates must it be all or nothing? why can't they say something like, it's ok to be outside, 6 ft away from ppl w/o your mask. I'm really tired of riding my bike w/ a freaking mask on


Is it mandatory there outside? If not, stop wearing it and keep away from people? Go cycling when it’s quiet like 6am.
Most on here are in the U.K., so no idea on US mask rules or legislation. Maybe ask your local community groups or legislators?


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## Johnno260 (22 Apr 2021)

I wear one outside if I need to pick the kids up from the school gates, I'm in a minority that does this but it seems to make sense to me.

If I do the weekly shop and need to visit other stores I don't take it off between stores as it seems a little counter productive to keep touching the mask and my face.

I don't think it's ever been mandatory to cycle and mask in the UK, I have one in a saddle pack in case, but that's all.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Apr 2021)

Revised order requiring masks in public places https://www.mass.gov/news/mask-up-ma

"Governor Baker issued an Order effective November 6, 2020 requiring face masks or cloth face coverings in all public places, whether indoors or outdoors, even where they are able to maintain 6 feet of distance from others." [Exemption for under 5s, and others eg swimming, eating and drinking in restaurants (!!)]

Think it's fair to suggest that the rule in Massachusets is not 'following' the science. $300 fine threat. I am amazed a freedom-loving nation / state subjects itself to such disproportionate measures.


----------



## rockyroller (22 Apr 2021)

vickster said:


> Is it mandatory there outside? If not, stop wearing it and keep away from people? Go cycling when it’s quiet like 6am.
> Most on here are in the U.K., so no idea on US mask rules or legislation. Maybe ask your local community groups or legislators?


yes, even if you can socially distance


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## vickster (22 Apr 2021)

rockyroller said:


> yes, even if you can socially distance


I guess you’ll have to wait for the rules to change locally, the timing of which you’ll have more idea than the forums U.K. based majority 
We only have to wear indoors


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## Ajax Bay (22 Apr 2021)

vickster said:


> Maybe ask your local community groups or legislators?





rockyroller said:


> even if you can socially distance


Would it be irresponsible to suggest that you, with a few friends (masked up of course), visit the Massachusetts State House to make your point? Was it you who suggested that in early March Texas and Mississippi were totally irresponsible to relax restrictions various?
Edit: @rockyroller "& there's these nutz"





https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/texas




Daily cases in Massachusets = 227 per million (cf in UK about 37pm and Texas about 160pm).


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## roubaixtuesday (22 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Was it you who suggested that in early March Texas and Mississippi were totally irresponsible to relax restrictions various?



It is possible to take an irresponsible risk and get away with it... (don't personally have a view on the topic, but just because something turns out well or bad doesn't mean the risk was assessed responsibly beforehand)


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## Rocky (22 Apr 2021)

I’ll continue to wear my mask where ventilation is poor and there’s a continued risk of infection.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Apr 2021)

Well I guess the states' Governors were de facto 'responsible'. Perhaps they were informed by the science? Is taking one choice rather than another 'irresponsible' if the available certainties are in short supply? Is the Governor of Massachusetts being 'responsible' by maintaining a law which requires everyone to wear a mask in a public place. Clearly 'responsible' but wise? Mmmm?
"I think it's that way," he said as he set off into the mist across Dartmoor. Someone has to lead.


Rocky said:


> I’ll continue to wear my mask where ventilation is poor and there’s a continued risk of infection.


With you all the way there @Rocky.


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## roubaixtuesday (22 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Well I guess the states' Governors were de facto 'responsible'. Perhaps they were informed by the science? Is taking one choice rather than another 'irresponsible' if the available certainties are in short supply? Is the Governor of Massachusetts being 'responsible' by maintaining a law which requires everyone to wear a mask in a public place. Clearly 'responsible' but wise? Mmmm?
> "I think it's that way," he said as he set off into the mist across Dartmoor. Someone has to lead.
> 
> With you all the way there @Rocky.



It's irresponsible to run across a busy motorway, whether or not you get run over.


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## matticus (22 Apr 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It is possible to take an irresponsible risk and get away with it... (don't personally have a view on the topic, but just because something turns out well or bad doesn't mean the risk was assessed responsibly beforehand)


That is very true.

Additionally, worth reading what Rocky wrote before we hang him:


" rockyroller said:
*when* they lift mask mandates must it be all or nothing?"

[My bold] he hasn't asked for rules to be relaxed. At least not in that post!


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## vickster (22 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> That is very true.
> 
> Additionally, worth reading what Rocky wrote before we hang him:
> 
> ...


He says...
why can't they say something like, it's ok to be outside, 6 ft away from ppl w/o your mask. I'm really tired of riding my bike w/ a freaking mask on

that reads like he’d like relaxation?


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## Ajax Bay (22 Apr 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It's irresponsible to run across a busy motorway, whether or not you get run over.


Is it irresponsible to ride on a dual carriageway (without explicit cycling prohibition), when busy?


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## rockyroller (22 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I am amazed a freedom-loving nation / state subjects itself to such disproportionate measures.


true patriots put country before self


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## rockyroller (22 Apr 2021)

vickster said:


> that reads like he’d like relaxation?


yes, to some degree, like when I can stay 6' from someone outside


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## rockyroller (22 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> worth reading what Rocky wrote before we hang him:
> " rockyroller said:
> *when* they lift mask mandates must it be all or nothing?"


thank you, yes, *when*

I was thinking of those US states that just ripped the band aid off & said "it's up to you to make the right decision" & so many ppl just stopped using them altogether. that's not what I call "guidance"


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## rockyroller (22 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Was it you who suggested that in early March Texas and Mississippi were totally irresponsible to relax restrictions various?
> Daily cases in Massachusetts = 227 per million (cf in UK about 37pm and Texas about 160pm).


yes, & re: those stats about those other states, that's of little consolation to those people, there, that die every day from covid. just think how good their numbers would be if they were smarter

just read this to that point

“I think those mass mandates in outdoor spaces should probably be the first to go,” she said. “We really need to focus on places we know are at high risk for a transmission like large gatherings and closed spaces with poor ventilation.”

Homing in on the importance of indoor masking and helping people understand when it's safe to take off the mask may actually increase compliance


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## rockyroller (22 Apr 2021)

looks like the US state of Rhode Island is doing a phased relaxation of masks but it's complicated. wish us all luck when we get further down the road

Masks will be recommended, not mandatory, in Rhode Island starting May 7, part of a slate of coronavirus pandemic-related restrictions being eased next month.

Gov. Dan McKee announced the changes at a news conference Thursday. They include bringing indoor dining, houses of worship, retail stores, gyms and more to full capacity by May 28. An intermediate step will kick in for many restrictions on May 7, when many locations can move to 80% capacity.

See a full list of the changes here:





Currently, the state requires people to wear masks when near other people outdoors and indoors. But Rhode Island is dropping that requirement for people outside, a step some, though not all, experts are advocating for as vaccination rates go up.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Apr 2021)

rockyroller said:


> Homing in on the importance of indoor masking and helping people understand when it's safe to take off the mask may actually increase compliance.


I agree with your concerns expressed in other comments, to an extent, but wearing a mouth and nose covering outdoors except in facing close proximity is a disproportionate measure (imo) and lacks any benefit for others (and I think this is widely recognised) except as a symbolic gesture. It may even be to the population's detriment as it brings restrictions into disrepute.


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## rockyroller (23 Apr 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> wearing a mouth and nose covering outdoors except in facing close proximity


just opening my eyes & maybe I need coffee. I don't think I understand this. did you forget to begin with the word "not"?


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## matticus (23 Apr 2021)

I SUSPECT Ajax is furiously agreeing with what you wrote!


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## rockyroller (23 Apr 2021)

matticus said:


> I SUSPECT Ajax is furiously agreeing with what you wrote!


oh OK thanks, yeah I got the feeling we didn't disagree. too many polite double negatives can confuse me ... ;-)


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## Ajax Bay (23 Apr 2021)

Can't see any negatives in "wearing a mouth and nose covering outdoors except in facing close proximity is a disproportionate measure (imo) and lacks any benefit for others."
But given the daily case rate in your state, imo wearing 'masks' indoors in public places, is of course, entirely sensible and responsible.


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## rockyroller (23 Apr 2021)

ok whatever, I didn't write that anyway, it was someone else. I sometimes dislike how scientist write, just say it's OK not to wear a mask outside unless you get close to somebody. how hard is that? I think if the "common man & child" can understand a scientist, they might listen to them instead of tune them out. it's like Bernie Sanders promoting a single payer healthcare system. OK great, but nobody know what he means. you want votes? explain it to me like I'm 6


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## Rocky (23 Apr 2021)

I think I can explain Covid transmission in simple terms. It's airborne. If you share someone's air, you might share their virus.


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## Ajax Bay (28 Apr 2021)

Impact of vaccination on household transmission of SARS-COV-2 in England 
Conclusions " In addition to the direct effects of preventing cases and reducing severity, we have shown that both the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2 vaccines are associated with reduced likelihood of household transmission by 40-50% from individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 after vaccination, highlighting important wider benefits to close contacts. . . . these results could also have implications for transmissibility in other settings with similar transmission risks."
Comment: Can't get much closer than (and so risk of catching from) another asymptomatic household member. 
Dr Peter English (Retired Consultant in Communicable Disease Control, Former Editor of Vaccines in Practice Magazine, Immediate past Chair of the BMA Public Health Medicine Committee) assessment:
". . . substantial numbers, so the paper's conclusions are robust.
“We have mounting evidence of the real-world effectiveness of the Covid-19 vaccines. Vaccines are more . . . effective against death and critical care admission, and against hospital admission, than [less serious disease] and still less effective against asymptomatic disease [infected]. . . . their efficacy in terms of preventing people from being infectious is harder to evaluate – that is where this study comes in.
“The [paper] may, . . . have underestimated the effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing transmission, as their definition of secondary cases is likely to have included some co-cases (people who acquired their infection from the same source as the “index case”, rather than from the index case). 
“These findings are really important [and] extremely encouraging. They add to our reasons to hope that the vaccines will truly add to herd immunity. . . . This study shows that even if people who are vaccinated do become infected, they are considerably less likely to be infectious, and to pass the infection on to others."
Comment: The more effective the vaccination regime is at preventing transmission the quicker herd immunity will be reached (though it may still never be reached if the required percentage of the population cannot be vaccinated (low take up and 13M under 16s).


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## mjr (5 May 2021)

Anti-lockdown (refused to close bars and restaurants) Popular Party reelected in Madrid regional elections with increased vote share but still not quite a majority of seats. https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/04...sition-to-increase-seats-in-regional-assembly

This is despite PP-ruled Madrid region being the hardest-hit in Spain and facing rising infection numbers again now. Will this have an effect on Madrid's recovery?


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## matticus (5 May 2021)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56984320

Quite a few cases at Everest Base Camp.


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## mjr (5 May 2021)

USA experts now seeming to say eradication through herd immunity unlikely, so plan for local eliminations. For the UK, it again means we need working test and trace: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html


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## lazybloke (5 May 2021)

mjr said:


> USA experts now seeming to say eradication through herd immunity unlikely, so plan for local eliminations. For the UK, it again means we need working test and trace: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html


Kingston Greggs earlier -an elderly grump refused to abide by the maximum of 3 in the shop. When asked to wear a mask he declared "I don't have to.... It's pathetic . PATHETIC!"

The NHS really need to do a study to see how much of the 2nd wave was caused by selfish Rs-holes.


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## roubaixtuesday (5 May 2021)

mjr said:


> USA experts now seeming to say eradication through herd immunity unlikely, so plan for local eliminations. For the UK, it again means we need working test and trace: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html



(1) this is opinion, not settled science. Much remains uncertain. 
(2) vaccinating adolescents or even younger children may tip the balance
(3) herd immunity is not all or nothing
(4) we have much higher takeup than US so far

Good discussion from Oz perspective on the principles here

https://theconversation.com/amp/we-...vaccinated-well-be-safe-from-the-worst-159821


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## Ajax Bay (5 May 2021)

Herd immunity is absolutely not 'all or nothing': I agree. With good take-up % down to 18s (maybe 16s) I think this will bear down on transmission Reff combined with seasonal effects. Agree with @mjr on need for fully functioning T&T mechanism. Can't help thinking this would be most effectively provided by local PH organisation (eg county or metropolitan) to confine outbreaks in areas/communities with lower take-up or casual disregard for sensible behaviour in the summer. And to make sure the existence/prevalence of VoC is kept under national surveillance.


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## Eric Olthwaite (6 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Agree with @mjr on need for fully functioning T&T mechanism.



Has any large western country achieved this?


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## roubaixtuesday (6 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> Has any large western country achieved this?



Germany


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## Eric Olthwaite (6 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Germany



The same Germany that is currently experiencing a third wave?


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## matticus (6 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> The same Germany that is currently experiencing a third wave?


Well it's a long time since there were TWO Germanies, so what do you think?


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## roubaixtuesday (6 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> The same Germany that is currently experiencing a third wave?


 
Yes


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## Eric Olthwaite (6 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Yes



So if it has a fully functioning T&T system, and has nevertheless undergone a third wave, what is the point of T&T?


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## roubaixtuesday (6 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> So if it has a fully functioning T&T system, and has nevertheless undergone a third wave, what is the point of T&T?



It only works at low case numbers, but when numbers are low it can keep them low. 

See SK, NZ etc.

3rd wave overwhelmed it in Germany, but was highly effective last year.


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## mjr (6 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> So if it has a fully functioning T&T system, and has nevertheless undergone a third wave, what is the point of T&T?


Functioning T&T is necessary to keep infections down but not sufficient alone. Without it, you may not even know a new variant is rising or a lockdown is necessary until thousands are doomed to die.


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## Eric Olthwaite (6 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It only works at low case numbers, but when numbers are low it can keep them low.
> 
> See SK, NZ etc.
> 
> 3rd wave overwhelmed it in Germany, but was highly effective last year.



Highly effective in what sense? Germany had a second wave at pretty much the same time as the UK.


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## Craig the cyclist (6 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It only works at low case numbers, but when numbers are low it can keep them low.



So last year the numbers were low, and the super-effective T&T system kept them that way.........

Right up until it failed and the...........



roubaixtuesday said:


> 3rd wave overwhelmed it in Germany, but was highly effective last year.



So it wasn't actually very effective at all was it?


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## roubaixtuesday (6 May 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> So it wasn't actually very effective at all was it?



Yes, it was. But nobody thinks the pandemic can be solved by track and trace alone. It's part of an overall response. 

Eg the hugely impressive Aus T&T requires border controls, *and* lockdowns when spikes occur.


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## roubaixtuesday (6 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> Highly effective in what sense?



In the sense that Germany had less restrictions than us last year whilst also keeping case numbers lower.


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## matticus (6 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Agree with @mjr on need for* fully functioning T&T mechanism*





Eric Olthwaite said:


> Has any large western country achieved this?


FULLY FUNCTIONING was the phrase in question. Do you agree that Germany got a lot closer to this than the UK?

You then moved to arguing about "_effective_"; well that's even harder to judge, as cases/deaths/etc will depend on a multitude of things. (e.g. vaccine rollout will swamp almost all other issues). So it's almost meaningless to say that Germany's system was not "effective".


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## PK99 (6 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Germany



They did at the start with low case numbers, but the wheels fell off in the second wave with high case numbers

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-lost-control-of-tracing-as-infections-surge

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/06/why-germanys-coronavirus-strategy-doesnt-appear-to-be-working.html


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## Eric Olthwaite (6 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> In the sense that Germany had less restrictions than us last year whilst also keeping case numbers lower.



But that was also true of the first wave, when Germany did not have fully functioning T&T system.


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## Craig the cyclist (6 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It only works at low case numbers, but when numbers are low it can keep them low.



But when the numbers were low, they had this hugely effective T&T system that would keep them low (you just said that here). However the numbers rose again very steeply, so it didn't keep the numbers low did it?

T&T's effectiveness is not on how well the app works or doesn't, it is about how willing the population are to follow it. In the UK, people are ignoring the tracing element of it. It isn't that aren't being tracked and contacted, it is that once notified people don't follow the rules! The rate of hang-ups once the operator says 'This is NHS T&T' is quite staggering!


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## roubaixtuesday (6 May 2021)

BMJ

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2522

_Germany’s intensive system of testing, contact tracing, and quarantine were critical to successful control of the outbreak,_


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## mjr (6 May 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> But when the numbers were low, they had this hugely effective T&T system that would keep them low (you just said that here). However the numbers rose again very steeply, so it didn't keep the numbers low did it?


Maybe it did, until the wave overwhelmed its capacity?



> T&T's effectiveness is not on how well the app works or doesn't,


T&T is not just an app. The app has been pretty useless, as far as anyone can tell. Germany's Corona-Warn-App has suffered a similar fate. Has anywhere had an effective app?



> it is about how willing the population are to follow it. In the UK, people are ignoring the tracing element of it. It isn't that aren't being tracked and contacted, it is that once notified people don't follow the rules! The rate of hang-ups once the operator says 'This is NHS T&T' is quite staggering!


That is another problem with the UK response. The compensation offered to low-paid workers to quarantine seems to be insufficient to get compliance. One report I read said that 60% of UK quarantiners surveyed independently had broken quarantine in the 24 hours before being asked (this was detected by asking "have you done X since ..." rather than asking "have you broken quarantine"!).

There are other aspects of not following rules which isn't helping the UK, which I've posted about earlier, such as non-use of masks, not working from home, not avoiding crowds, not washing hands and surfaces more — but I don't think the UK was noticeably worse than Germany on most indicators, so this doesn't explain the difference.


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## Johnno260 (6 May 2021)

The other issue with track and trace is I know a lot of people who give false information, like anything if you put junk in, you get junk out.


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## Drago (6 May 2021)

2 staff members tested positive in Mrs D's school today, so that 2 staff and 51 pupils having to isolate. Thanks heavens Mrs D has jab #2 next wednesday, and mine next Thursday.



Johnno260 said:


> The other issue with track and trace is I know a lot of people who give false information, like anything if you put junk in, you get junk out.



Not to mention evidence that the app is pinging a significant number of folk, who then don't bother to isolate themselves because they feel ok (and because they're selfish cretins). It only takes a modest percentage to misbehave and the whole system fails in its objective.


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## mjr (6 May 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> The other issue with track and trace is I know a lot of people who give false information, like anything if you put junk in, you get junk out.


Yeah, but why are they doing that? And I assume you just mean the venue check-in thing, which I think has been a very little-used part of tracing.



Drago said:


> 2 staff members tested positive in Mrs D's school today, so that 2 staff and 51 pupils having to isolate. Thanks heavens Mrs D has jab #2 next wednesday, and mine next Thursday.


Thank heavens that it will reduce risk of harm, you mean? Vaccinated people still have to isolate in that situation, don't they? (Genuine question: I don't have direct exposure to school bubbles any more and am months from my second jab, so it's not something I've looked into.)



> Not to mention evidence that the app is pinging a significant number of folk, who then don't bother to isolate themselves because they feel ok (and because they're selfish cretins). It only takes a modest percentage to misbehave and the whole system fails in its objective.


So you don't think that some don't isolate because they feel they cannot afford to, in some way, whether loss of income, risk to job or harm to people they care for? And yes, I know that last one seems ironic, but maybe the sole carer for a vaccinated person would view the risk of harm from lack of care to be higher than the risk of catching covid.


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## Johnno260 (6 May 2021)

mjr said:


> Yeah, but why are they doing that? And I assume you just mean the venue check-in thing, which I think has been a very little-used part of tracing



One of my crackpot relatives has given false information for anything where it was requested, some pubs with out door seating etc things like that

also someone who I thought was sensible has given false information for it as well.



Drago said:


> Not to mention evidence that the app is pinging a significant number of folk, who then don't bother to isolate themselves because they feel ok (and because they're selfish cretins). It only takes a modest percentage to misbehave and the whole system fails in its objective.



I think this whole situation has exposed some people for the selfish entitled brats they’re, all the anti lockdown crowd just come across as entitled snowflakes who are upset at being asked to do something that’s socially responsible

a friend was complaining about protests being broken up, and it’s being a right taken away, I said something titled Kill the Bill sorry tear gas those muppets, that’s not a peaceful protest.


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## Unkraut (7 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> So if it [Germany] has a fully functioning T&T system, and has nevertheless undergone a third wave, what is the point of T&T?


I don't think T & T in Germany has been particularly effective. It was adherence to the hygiene measures that prevented a repetition of Italy last March. It's true Germany had the world's most expensive app, but it only enabled tracing of about 4% of cases - better than nothing, but not much better! It was rendered ineffective by obsessions with data privacy.

The public health admin system was chronically underfunded, undermanned and using yesterday's technology. Staff had to be boosted by about 10 000 soldiers seconded from the Army. 

Too little was done about this over last summer when the infection rates were low and complacency set in. Testing was not brought up to speed either, shown in the number of infections and deaths in care homes over winter. 

A nationwide unified computer system for tracking was only functioning from about the beginning of March this year. A new app has been developed privately that gets round most of the privacy problems, and will also help with tracking. 

The second wave, largely triggered by returning holidaymakers, was stopped but not turned round by the lockdown lite in November, necessitating longer lockdown measures. Too little too late.

The third wave is in effect a new pandemic with the British variant. It looked as though it might get completely out of control with rates shooting up, but for about a week now the infection rate is slowly coming down. The vaccination numbers are just starting to show an effect, expected to reduce the infection rate dramatically by the end of May. The now improved T & T will be able to cope.

Government policy and Merkel in particular have generally been right all through, what went wrong were delays in implementing measures, and bureaucratic failures to ensure they were effectively implemented. The post-war decentralised power structure has made it difficult for the political establishment to get on with it, and has blurred allocation of responsibility.

It's easy to be critical, especially with hindsight, but you can see the strain and exhaustion in dealing with a pandemic for months on the faces of both minister-presidents and central government ministers.


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## mjr (7 May 2021)

Thanks for a detailed view from Germany.



Unkraut said:


> It's true Germany had the world's most expensive app, but it [...] was rendered ineffective by obsessions with data privacy.


Really? It wasn't that the basic idea of bluetooth pinging (range up to 8m or more, works through walls, works better in large airy spaces) is basically not comparable to the risky close contact (range up to 1-2m, can't go through walls, works worse in large airy spaces) which spreads the virus?

Did Germany have the same problem as the UK, which needlessly limited the semi-automatic "venue check-in" system to phones compatible with the bluetooth pinging of the latest Apple/Google OS versions, when it could have been made much more widely available to almost any camera phone?



> A new app has been developed privately that gets round most of the privacy problems, and will also help with tracking.


What's that one called? How does it get round privacy problems?


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## Ajax Bay (8 May 2021)

Unkraut said:


> The third wave is in effect a new pandemic with the British variant. It looked as though it might get completely out of control with rates shooting up, but for about a week now the infection rate is slowly coming down. The vaccination numbers are just starting to show an effect, expected to reduce the infection rate dramatically by the end of May. The now improved T & T will be able to cope.


Moved this across from the 'how are we doing' thread.


Andy in Germany said:


> . . . we're currently at about 30% of the population in Germany getting their first vaccination, and 8% getting their second. It finally seems to be affecting the numbers of new cases. Our county has been having well under 100 cases per 100 000 for over seven days so we could reduce the lockdown a bit more, but sensible people have pointed out that if we allow more shops to open people from the adjacent counties, which have much higher rates, will come in and bring C-19 with them, so they are waiting for a bit.


Pretty sure the modelling suggests that at the low percentages you quote, vaccinations will have had little impact on the daily case rate. That Germany has got its rate to 1000 per million a day is down to the level of NPI (restrictions etc) which the various Lander are imposing, not vaccinations. The UK is being Germanically (positive compliment!) cautious in its phased lockdown and its daily case rate is 300 per million. With caveats, the prognosis for UK is promising but modelling (for SPI-M and on to SAGE) still suggests a third wave of a moderate nature (mostly cases rather than hospitalisations). Its peak will be suppressed with some NPIs maintained and the vaccination programme rolling on (expected at 70% first dose and 50% second dose by 21 June). I reckon this modelling can be read straight across to Germany and what would happen if they tried to ease restrictions with cases still at a substantial rate.
Perhaps you could solve the problems of people (who are more likely to be infected) resident in other countries by prohibiting their entry at you borders. Does the EU allow its members to impose such restrictions?


classic33 said:


> Ireland has been restricting access for nearly a year, to essential visits and commercial for the last year*. These restrictions seem set to remain in place this summer.
> *Even then you've to provide a negative test result(commercial drivers) and essential visits/returning home 14 days quarantine upon entry.


Can EU member states effectively enforce trans-border movement restrictions, without the benefit of a water gap?


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## classic33 (8 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Can EU member states effectively enforce trans-border movement restrictions, without the benefit of a water gap?


No water gap between the Republic if Ireland and Northern Ireland.


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## Ajax Bay (8 May 2021)

classic33 said:


> No water gap between the Republic if Ireland and Northern Ireland.


Indeedy. I think you are agreeing with me 
Part of the reason I advocated months ago, when the 'quasi ineffective' EU vaccine procurement debacle unrolled, that the UK should divert a couple of days supply of vaccines (a million, say) to Ireland with a polite request to deploy a good wadge to the border counties.


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## Unkraut (8 May 2021)

mjr said:


> What's that one called? How does it get round privacy problems?


I recall seeing someone working in intensive care who had the corona app on their phone saying that it remained green all the time - despite working with infected people day in day out it never picked up a contact to warn them about.

The new privately developed app is known as luca. As far as I know all of the health authority tracing system country-wide has been enabled to use it. A short overview:

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-luca-app-makes-contact-tracing-easier/av-57075840


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## Unkraut (9 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Pretty sure the modelling suggests that at the low percentages you quote, vaccinations will have had little impact on the daily case rate.


The claim I saw was that the vaccination campaign is only just beginning to have an effect. Nearly a third of the population have one injection. The main reason the rate is coming down must be people are keeping the corona restrictions. Karl Lauterbach, the SPD member who is a virologist, has been pleading for central and regional government not to relax the restrictions too soon. Just another three weeks and the rate should drop exponentially, and this time vaccination will have a definite impact. The rate is nearly 800 000 a day on average.

There is a complicated set of regulations as to just what can and cannot be opened up depending on the infection rate, over 100 per 100 000 centrally and under that level regionally. I cycled through Heidelberg today, and there is much more normality than where I live, the infection rate is almost down to 60.

Chile serves as a warning of what can happen when a country gets on with vaccination and then lifts the restrictions to soon and experiences another wave of infections. It would be foolish for western European countries not to learn from this.


Ajax Bay said:


> Can EU member states effectively enforce trans-border movement restrictions, ...


The Schengen agreement has always allowed for the reintroduction of travel restrictions at borders in exceptional circumstances, and various German states have made good use of this with so many neighbouring countries having experienced massively high rates of infection. I don't the EU in Brussels has always been too keen on this, but there is not much they can do about it. The ideal of free movement is fine, but not the free movement of infected people, notwithstanding the economic problems that temporarily closed borders can create.


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## silva (9 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> In the sense that Germany had less restrictions than us last year whilst also keeping case numbers lower.
> View attachment 587391


Look at India, until recently they barely had any Covid-19 wave.
And even now, it's still 1/10 th amount deaths per mil than my country (200 versus 2000)
But media here shows in corona news people cremated on street (which is cultural) and pictures/videos from... an earthquake havoc of some time ago.


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## roubaixtuesday (9 May 2021)

silva said:


> Look at India, until recently they barely had any Covid-19 wave.
> And even now, it's still 1/10 th amount deaths per mil than my country (200 versus 2000)
> But media here shows in corona news people cremated on street (which is cultural) and pictures/videos from... an earthquake havoc of some time ago.
> View attachment 587885



The figures in India are likely under reported by a huge factor. 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1391238136219512833


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## Ajax Bay (9 May 2021)

Agree the actual deaths (due to SARS-CoV-2) in India will be being massively under reported.
And infections/cases even more so. Note: population of 1391M.
Since last summer:


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## Ajax Bay (9 May 2021)

ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey - latest data
Comment:
Covers 26 April to 2 May; well after Phase 2 restriction relaxation on 12 Apr so any effects from that’d show: and there’s none. Next stage of relaxations seems assured (that was the point of having the stages and 5 weeks between each).

Infection rates slowly falling. ONS’s central estimate is that 8 people in every 1000 across the UK would have tested positive on 2 May: down 12% in a week. Still 50% higher than EOTHO period last summer. Lower would be better but even if case rate increases in the summer, superbly high vaccination up-take by the more vulnerable (and expected the complete adult population by then) will still mean levels of serious illness are minimised.

On incidence of new infections, ONS estimates for UK are 3700 new infections each day for the week ending 25 April, which is a fifth lower than the estimate for the previous week (4610). There’s no sign of any increase after the easing of restrictions (but ONS note there’s a good deal of statistical uncertainty in these estimates).


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## Craig the cyclist (10 May 2021)

Unkraut said:


> I recall seeing someone working in intensive care who had the corona app on their phone saying that it remained green all the time - despite working with infected people day in day out it never picked up a contact to warn them about.



But as you don't 'check in to a venue' when you go to work in ICU, it won't work the same as going in to a restaurant. The other ping is from someone who has tested positive, but to be honest, if you are in ICU you probably haven't got your phone on you anyway.


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## MrGrumpy (10 May 2021)

We have received , about 4 emails in the last week from the high school of + Covid cases appearing with pupils. Whatever the data is saying , it’s still out there and potentially spreading. Let’s just hope the vaccines do their job.

just to add youngest has done three swab tests at home this weekend as not feeling great. Sore throat etc . Hope that’s all it is !


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## SpokeyDokey (10 May 2021)

According to Worldometer stat's we are continuing to move down the list re deaths/million of population - now 15th.

Whilst I take no pleasure or displeasure in the figures higher or lower than those of the UK it does seem that we currently have a decent grasp of the situation, relative to some other countries, despite our ignominious start.

I can only assume that this trend will continue, looking at the serious caseload figures of some of the countries that are currently further down the table than us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (Scroll down)


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## matticus (10 May 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> According to Worldometer stat's we are continuing to move down the list re deaths/million of population - now 15th.
> <snip>
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (Scroll down)


It seems a weird statistical quirk (to me) that when you sort by TOTAL deaths, we jump up to 5th. Suggesting that we are a large country, population-wise. /off-topic-ramble


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## Ajax Bay (10 May 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> Whatever the data is saying , it’s still out there and potentially spreading. Let’s just hope the vaccines do their job.


The data is clearly showing it is "still out there" (otherwise there'd be no new cases) and "spreading" (no "potentially" caveat). Edit: The four UK Chief Medical Officers have [today 10 May] agreed that the UK Alert Level should move from Level 4 to Level 3. They cautioned: "COVID is still circulating with people catching and spreading the virus every day so we all need to continue to be vigilant. This remains a major pandemic globally." 
The drop in daily cases and the ONS infection estimates on which I commented ^^^ suggests that it is "spreading" but with an effective R of less than one. In UK the combination of NPIs and the effect of vaccination shrinking the percentage susceptible together is designed to keep Reff below 1, or at least not much above 1.

If cases do rise, the proven effect of vaccination will mean that the resultant numbers who develop even serious illness will be low enough for society/community (as judged by our leaders) to accept, weighed against other considerations. Across UK the daily death (associated with COVID-19) count has dropped below 12 per day (tragic for each individual and their family and friends). Deaths per week from all causes are running at below average level, and have been since mid March: currently 10,000 deaths a week.

For the next two months the positives are the increasing percentage of the population vaccinated and the lovely late spring and summer weather/temperatures to which we all look forward. The confounders are the possibility (no more than that) of significant prevalence of a VoC (either of greater transmissibility or against which the current vaccines offer lower effectiveness) and the chance that relaxation of restrictions (both on 17 May and no earlier than 21 Jun) allow the Reff to increase well above 1.


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## mjr (10 May 2021)

silva said:


> Look at India, until recently they barely had any Covid-19 wave.
> And even now, it's still 1/10 th amount deaths per mil than my country (200 versus 2000)
> But media here shows in corona news people cremated on street (which is cultural) and pictures/videos from... an earthquake havoc of some time ago.
> View attachment 587885


Yesterday's news there was of Belgium's boner of relaxing restrictions on a Saturday and reopening beer gardens and cafe terraces, resulting in people refusing to disperse at closing time (now 10pm), the mayor of Ixelles reading the riot act equivalent and riot police and water cannons being sent in at 0130...

One thing gov.uk has gotten right lately is relaxing England's restrictions usually on Mondays, so the novelty seems to have worn off for most people by the following weekend.


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## roubaixtuesday (10 May 2021)

mjr said:


> Yesterday's news there was of Belgium's boner


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## Ajax Bay (10 May 2021)

mjr said:


> One thing gov.uk has gotten right



Nonetheless agree with your judgement and analysis.


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## Ajax Bay (11 May 2021)

SPI-M-O: Summary of further modelling of easing restrictions – Roadmap Step 3 was considered by SAGE 88 on 5 May.
[My precis of its] Summary
(Read the link for the actual summary (two pages), and forgive the limitations my brevity has forced.)
There remains considerable uncertainty about behaviour, and therefore transmission, generally. Modelling produces more optimistic estimates than those in SPI-M-O’s previous Roadmap modelling because now there’s evidence that vaccines significantly reduce transmission from people who have been vaccinated but nevertheless become infected then symptomatic [previously the transmission assumptions were 'cautious' (aka pessimistic)]
Not considered:

waning immunity
future emergence or dominance of VoC
Now included/assumptions refined:

some impact of seasonal changes in transmission
vaccine rollout speed and vaccine uptake % informed by UK experience [as opposed to 'cautious' assumptions]
Highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths but its peak will be small (central estimates) however, the scale, shape, and timing of any resurgence remain highly uncertain.


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## mjr (11 May 2021)

More from Belgium. TV speculation is that they will unlock most social restrictions (including concerts, cinemas, fairs, and so on) after 9 June if there are fewer than 500 ICU cases (from about 11m population) and 80% of covid-vulnerable people are vaccinated. However, work restrictions such as teleworking and work bubbles will remain in place.

I do wonder about those weak-looking conditions, but favouring social relaxation while keeping workplace restrictions seems different to what I have seen elsewhere, especially here in England where workplace policing seems very lax now.


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## Unkraut (11 May 2021)

33.3% of the population have now had their first injection, including yours truly on Sunday evening. All done nice and efficiently, very little bureaucracy.

My neighbours were also done on Sunday in a different town, and as all three of us spent yesterday pottering in the garden, my boy reckons the microchip we were injected with must have been funded by a garden centre consortium.


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## Ajax Bay (12 May 2021)

lane said:


> Second increase in the number of cases (7 day average) for second day running, and a bigger jump today of 12%. I think the impact of the easing of restrictions is having an impact with more easing to come expect to see continued growth in cases.





Craig the cyclist said:


> Lockdown 3, or the population get a grip and take responsibility? I am afraid the people have to realise that the easing of restrictions is guidance to a new level of maximum interaction, not an instruction and minimum level of interaction.





lane said:


> So long as the increase in cases doesn't lead to significantly higher hospitalization and death (or a nasty variant) it is not necessarily a problem. It does concern me though, after all we have been through to see cases rising. I do however definitely enjoy the increased freedoms.


Forgive if this seems a bit nerdy, but the last two days' increases both reflect the set of 4 low case numbers reported over the bank holiday weekend (remember those!) dropping out of the average. The 7-day average was ticking along flat at around 2250 before those low (test) figures 1,2,3,and 4 May started being included in the 7-day average. And the 8 May 7-day average is 2270.
If the relaxation which happened on 12 Apr was going to have an effect on the case numbers, we would have seen this within a fortnight. We didn't: the 7-day average dropped steadilyish from 2667 (12 Apr) to 2258 (26 Apr).
Having said that. it's probable that cases will increase from 22 May onwards. But I think that might be termed an 'increase' rather than sustained growth and in early June, the percentage vaccinated will be over 60% of the population (and of those 35% will have had their second dose). Edit: Still likely to be a 'third wave' of infections though, magnitude and timeline uncertain, but the resulting serious disease and in extremis deaths will be a magnitude less because of the much reduced IFR because of increasing proportion vaccinated.

05-05-20212,14404-05-20211,94603-05-20211,64902-05-20211,67101-05-20211,90730-04-20212,38129-04-20212,445
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases


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## lane (12 May 2021)

Thanks for the explanation @Ajax Bay - does that mean the reduction in 7 day rate we have seen over the previous few days was also wrong?


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## mjr (12 May 2021)

Johnson allows enquiry in this parliamentary session https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...blic-inquiry-into-covid-begin-this-parliament

Silver lining: public violence injuries down to record low https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...fewest-ever-violence-related-injuries-in-2020


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## Ajax Bay (12 May 2021)

Not 'wrong' @lane , just need to beware of taking too much notice of the noise.
Here's a graph of 'daily reported' cases from 13 Apr to 4 May with the 7-day average (orange) and 14-day average (grey) superimposed. Both the averages include the latest day reported (11 May). For the last 10 days, the 14-day is flat around 2160 (plus or minus 1%). We can all see that there's no 'signal' connected with the 12 Apr Phase 2 of 'roadmap' changes, nor of schools returning.
HTH


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## mjr (12 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Not 'wrong' @lane , just need to beware of taking too much notice of the noise.


I suggest a Bank Holiday weekend effect may be a confounding factor, rather than noise.

Looking at the 14 day trend is a good way to lessen its impact, though.


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## roubaixtuesday (12 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Not 'wrong' @lane , just need to beware of taking too much notice of the noise.
> Here's a graph of 'daily reported' cases from 13 Apr to 4 May with the 7-day average (orange) and 14-day average (grey) superimposed. Both the averages include the latest day reported (11 May). For the last 10 days, the 14-day is flat around 2160 (plus or minus 1%). We can all see that there's no 'signal' connected with the 12 Apr Phase 2 of 'roadmap' changes, nor of schools returning.
> HTH
> View attachment 588336



I think current concern isn't so much about the national picture, but the local areas which are driving this. The plateau/small rise is driven by a very small number of local areas.

here's Bolton, which currently accounts for something like 5% of all COVID cases in the UK (!!)






I believe associated with the Indian variant.

*If* the variant transmissibility is what's driving this, then we have a big problem, as we can expect the whole country to do the same (as with the Kent variant), and we're in a vaccination vs virus race.

*If* this is driven by local factors (workplaces, places of worship, large numbers of travellers from India, low local vaccination rates) then it's a trivial local problem.

We'll see - hopefully latter.


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## lane (12 May 2021)

And where I live which is now the highest after 100+ cases in one local school!


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## matticus (12 May 2021)

lane said:


> And where I live which is now the highest after 100+ cases in one local school!


It's in the nature of infectious diseases for cases to be localised  Hopefully the authoritayz will find the best way to stamp this one out, as obviously localised outbreaks can spread to something more major ...


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## Unkraut (12 May 2021)

I have just seen on the local news that Karlsruhe has set up a testing station exclusively for cyclists. It's located on one of the main roads into town, and will be open from 6:30 to 18:30. The city has a reputation for being cycling friendly.


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## Ajax Bay (13 May 2021)

Unkraut said:


> Karlsruhe has set up a testing station exclusively for cyclists. It's located on one of the main roads into town, and will be open from 6:30 to 18:30. The city has a reputation for being cycling friendly.


When you say 'cycling friendly' I assume that's your euphemism for ignoring motorists' whines and revving of engines in the road half blocked by this cyclist testing station.


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## Ajax Bay (13 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> *If* this [significant increase in B.1.617.2 variant cases] is driven by local factors (workplaces, places of worship, large numbers of travellers from India, low local vaccination rates) then it's a trivial local problem.


Last year politicians (eg N Sturgeon) correctly called out Eid celebrations as being a potential problem. Families travel and congregate to break the fast and to celebrate - it means so much to believers.
Eid falls at sunset today (13 May). I hope faith leaders have shown leadership in the communities where there are outbreaks, and pointed out to their followers/community that no inter-household meeting can legally take place indoors.
PS It was b***y cold in the pub garden / marquee last night.


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## Unkraut (13 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> When you say 'cycling friendly' I assume that's your euphemism for ignoring motorists' whines and revving of engines in the road half blocked by this cyclist testing station.


They've sensibly put it by what looks like a cycle track, away from the traffic. Karlsruhe was voted the most cycling friendly city in Germany not long ago. The Mayor is very proud of it!


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## mjr (14 May 2021)

Unkraut said:


> They've sensibly put it by what looks like a cycle track, away from the traffic. Karlsruhe was voted the most cycling friendly city in Germany not long ago. The Mayor is very proud of it!
> 
> View attachment 588549


What took them so long? There has long been a test centre by cycle route NCN1 at Lynnsport in King's Lynn. As a bonus, no politicians are posing outside it


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## classic33 (14 May 2021)

Unkraut said:


> They've sensibly put it by what looks like a cycle track, away from the traffic. Karlsruhe was voted the most cycling friendly city in Germany not long ago. The Mayor is very proud of it!
> 
> View attachment 588549


Why is it a "Drive In" test centre for cyclists. Wouldn't they be on bikes/cycles when visiting?


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## roubaixtuesday (14 May 2021)

Remember how much better than the EU our vaccine investment, procurement and programme is?

The EU is currently vaccinating more people than we are, and at the same time exporting half of its vaccine production (half of ours is _imported_). Cases and deaths are both falling across almost all member states, although only Portugal has rates as low as ours. It is not a coincidence that Portugal had a very hard lockdown, as we did.

Still, the narrative is what matters, right?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/10/industrial-policy-saved-europes-vaccine-drive/

_By now, criticism of EU vaccine procurement has almost stopped. Vaccination rates have accelerated everywhere. Apart from Hungary and Malta, which are ahead, and Croatia, Latvia, and Bulgaria, which lag behind, most participants are moving ahead at the same speed. This common pace was the idea behind common procurement.

Member states obtained 14 million doses in January, 28 million in February, 60 million in March, and 105 million in April. The commission expects 125 million doses in May and 200 million in June, putting the bloc on track to have an annual capacity of 3 billion to 4 billion doses. Even when new vaccines become available, Breton said, Europe doesn’t need them. There are now 53 manufacturing sites in Europe, up from barely a dozen in January. According to Breton, “We should be proud of Europe’s industrial capacity.” His boss, von der Leyen, said Europe has used this crisis to reinvent itself and become stronger, as happened repeatedly in the past. She called Europe, still exporting almost half of its vaccine output, “the pharmacy of the world.”_


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## Ajax Bay (14 May 2021)

Please share the "narrative what matters" to which you refer.
Wrong thread, maybe?


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## roubaixtuesday (14 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Please share the "narrative what matters" to which you refer.
> Wrong thread, maybe?



I refer to the "Britain is best and it's Brexit wot won it" narrative.

I don't have a link for that


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## Unkraut (14 May 2021)

classic33 said:


> Why is it a "Drive In" test centre for cyclists. Wouldn't they be on bikes/cycles when visiting?


That was well spotted, it does seem a bit anachronistic doesn't it!

I think it will be understood simply to mean you don't have to have an appointment, you just turn up.

@roubaixtuesday The number vaccinated on Wednesday was 1,353,453, a record so far. Down to just over 400 000 yesterday, but was a bank holiday, which of course are sacrosanct!


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## kingrollo (15 May 2021)

Surprised we haven't postponed Mondays easing due to the Indian variant.


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## SpokeyDokey (15 May 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Surprised we haven't postponed Mondays easing due to the Indian variant.



I thought the focus was to be more local if any throttling back on restriction easing is required.

Imo it would be ludicrous to ease back on restrictions nationally at the current levels of Indian variant infection.

Not particularly Indian variant related but i wouldn't mind seeing the border rules tightened/retightened - I have a real problem with people being allowed to head off abroad for far from essential frolics in the sun.


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## newfhouse (15 May 2021)

Unkraut said:


> @roubaixtuesday The number vaccinated on Wednesday was 1,353,453, a record so far. Down to just over 400 000 yesterday, but was a bank holiday, which of course are sacrosanct!


I’m sure someone will be along soon to tell us that international comparisons are not helpful...


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## kingrollo (15 May 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I thought the focus was to be more local if any throttling back on restriction easing is required.
> 
> Imo it would be ludicrous to ease back on restrictions nationally at the current levels of Indian variant infection.
> 
> Not particularly Indian variant related but i wouldn't mind seeing the border rules tightened/retightened - I have a real problem with people being allowed to head off abroad for far from essential frolics in the sun.



Well I think local lockdowns will be pretty pointless in around a week. They sound like a sensible idea - but got farcical last time.


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## matticus (15 May 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Well I think local lockdowns will be pretty pointless in around a week. They sound like a sensible idea - but got farcical last time.


That was something I still can't get my head around; they *seem* like such a ... logical approach. What went wrong? Should they have been stricter? Too many exemptions? 
I think other comparable nations used them last year.


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## Unkraut (15 May 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Well I think local lockdowns will be pretty pointless in around a week.


Is there even such a thing as a local lockdown? As soon as you try it with town A going into lockdown the inhabitants of said town will all go to town B where things are still open. It would seem nigh on impossible trying to police this to prevent it.


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## Rusty Nails (15 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Remember how much better than the EU our vaccine investment, procurement and programme is?
> 
> The EU is currently vaccinating more people than we are, and at the same time exporting half of its vaccine production (half of ours is _imported_). Cases and deaths are both falling across almost all member states, although only Portugal has rates as low as ours. It is not a coincidence that Portugal had a very hard lockdown, as we did.
> 
> ...



It is sad to see the vaccination programme continuing to be used as part of the Remain/Leave Brexit war. Like just about everything else people read into the statistics what they think supports their views of Brexit, and this post is no different.

There is only one thing that matters, which is how many lives have been saved as a result of the vaccination programmes, not whether one country started more quickly than others or whether others have now started to accelerate faster.

Here is one set of statistical charts that shows progress in vaccination programmes around the world to mid May. Statisticians fill-yer-boots  and use it to score more political points 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


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## kingrollo (15 May 2021)

matticus said:


> That was something I still can't get my head around; they *seem* like such a ... logical approach. What went wrong? Should they have been stricter? Too many exemptions?
> I think other comparable nations used them last year.



I don't think there is will or resources to enforce them. Policitally it's difficult they totally failed last time around - and the Indian variant is supposed to spread more easily.
Surge vaccination ? Well is it do able given that pockets of IV are pretty widespread - if we have the capacity to widespread surge, why are going through age groups...

No easy answers


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## Pale Rider (16 May 2021)

Seems 'celebrating' a title win trumps Coronavirus precautions for a large number of Scottish football fans.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-57133503


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## IaninSheffield (16 May 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Seems 'celebrating' a title win trumps Coronavirus precautions for a large number of Scottish football fans.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-57133503


'Scottish'? Or perhaps just football fans in general?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56324615


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## mjr (17 May 2021)

Unkraut said:


> They've sensibly put it by what looks like a cycle track, away from the traffic. Karlsruhe was voted the most cycling friendly city in Germany not long ago. The Mayor is very proud of it!
> 
> View attachment 588549


I remembered to snap ours today. Track on the left is NCN1, one curving to the right goes to a housing estate.


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## Unkraut (17 May 2021)

Rusty Nails said:


> It is sad to see the vaccination programme continuing to be used as part of the Remain/Leave Brexit war. Like just about everything else people read into the statistics what they think supports their views of Brexit, and this post is no different.


I agree with you. But ... I would add a couple of things to this. 

The early start of the vaccination programme was used as pro-Brexit propaganda in the UK (please sir, they started it!), and also caused ripples across Europe when it appeared the EU programme was a disaster. As Bexit was not exactly accompanied by honesty and integrity and the idea circulated the UK vaccination campaign had been aided by Brexit, which was untrue, it is difficult to resist the temptation to point this out.

None of this has been helped by inaccurate and spun press reporting. With hindsight British 'success' and EU 'failure' have both been exaggerated, though are not wholly untrue. And it did look initially as though nationalism had paid off, whereas the idea of cooperation to ensure the rich don't hog supplies had done harm, caused delays. The latter concept of cooperation is worth defending against the former, and is now paying off across continental Europe for the smaller and less wealthy nations.

What ought to be simply a medical issue has become politicised, often with disastrous consequences as seen in the USA, Brazil and a lesser extent the initial response by the UK. Populists who could not cope with the seriousness of the situation, unwilling or unable to accept expert opinion. There are _still _Americans who believe the pandemic is a hoax and excuse for Big Government!


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## Ajax Bay (17 May 2021)

I said, on the 'vaccine' thread: "And unless this variant outcompetes the B.1.1.7 (no evidence of that), is more lethal (no evidence of that) or evades the vaccines (no evidence of that) the numbers saved [from dying but serious illness too] will be very few."
Recent assessment is not good news, so not surprised the PM shared his concern last Friday.

B.1.617.2 in England (cumulative 520 to 1313 genomic tests in 7 days) with clusters in Bolton, Blackburn and Hyndburn (North West cluster) as well as Sefton, Bedford, and London, and otherwise cases UK-widely but thinly spread. All of this points to B.1.617.2 outcompeting B.1.1.7 VoC. SPI-M-O now estimates that B.1.617.2 could have a transmission advantage of 50% over B.1.1.7. But from the UK’s experience with the sure and not so slow rise of B.1.1.7 to dominance by Christmas, higher transmission will mean more cases for the same control measures. Modelling presented to SAGE has this as a sensitivity variation to its central assumption/estimate. In other terms, the more this variant spreads the higher the effective R number (for a given set of NPIs (restrictions on behaviour etc)). Effectively, the expected wave of cases in the summer will have a higher peak than had the B.1.617.2 variant not been introduced.


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## Ajax Bay (17 May 2021)

How this works out in UK will depend on vaccine efficacy and the number of people vaccinated. No vaccine is 100% effective and vaccine breakthroughs happen. The rationale for getting the second jabs into the over 50s (all JCVI Phase 1 (Gps 1-9)) is that the 20% (?) increased effectiveness (against severe disease in particular) thus afforded may overmatch the B.1.617.2 variant’s evasion (if any – there is no evidence either way). Vaccines have worked against all other variants to date and assuming that this is the case for B.1.617.2, the number of infection cases may be more but the incidence of severe disease will still be far lower than in an unvaccinated population. Nevertheless the avoidance of infections of lesser severity remain important because of the risk of long covid. There is no evidence that the disease caused by B.1.617.2 is more severe: no data yet.

This circumstance might reasonably be styled as a race between variant (with higher transmissibility) spread and population vaccination rate: one we were winning against B.1.1.7 but a new rider is trying to bridge the gap (been watching too much Giro d’Italia?). The virus will be helped by eased restrictions and hindered by summer temperatures and local control measures (testing, contact tracing, isolation). We have a start: we’ve vaccinated 2/3 of the adult population and will soon be over ¾. The progress of this variant will be critical in the next 3 weeks and will inform the decision on the timing of UK’s final relaxation of restrictions, no earlier than 21 Jun (VoC emergence is one of the four ‘tests’ – data not dates). Other countries haven’t got the start we have so they’ll be keen to restrict its import. Expecting further relaxations on foreign travel restrictions is optimistic.


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## mjr (17 May 2021)

We're back in hospitality-business-destroying bull shoot land again, aren't we? Go out but don't go out, stay home but save your pubs, you can drink indoors but shouldn't. 

Pubs and cafes are now allowed to open fully, but Boris says "take this next step with a heavy dose of caution" and "We will not be preventing businesses from reopening on Monday, but we will be asking you to do your bit" with many bits of government saying it is an "appeal to everyone not to let their guard down yet" and "if people get too carried away, we could jeopardise the ability to reopen [...] I think there has to be a degree of common sense, a bit of caution and people shouldn’t be running away being too exuberant".

Surely if we've learnt anything about "common sense" in 2020, it's that it isn't as common as needed to limit the spread of covid? Relaxing restrictions while telling people not to use those relaxations is a failure to take responsibility, a failure to care for public health, a failure to govern. I feel like they're lining us up for blaming sections of the public yet again if cases rise and unlocking is delayed or even restrictions return in some areas.

Now I don my fireproof undies and await a parade of government supporters saying why it's wrong to point out the similarities with the failed "you should avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues" advice of 16th March 2020, I'm somehow just against Boris because of his party, and ignoring my support for some of this government's policies.


----------



## mjr (17 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> [...] a new rider is trying to bridge the gap (been watching too much Giro d’Italia?). The virus will be helped by eased restrictions and hindered by summer temperatures and local control measures (testing, contact tracing, isolation).


I think you speculated in the past about a seasonal effect, possibly UV or temperature (but please excuse me if that is wrong) or maybe indirectly through people meeting indoors less. It feels like this spring/summer has been gloomier and colder in the UK than last year. Can you tell if there's been any effect on covid spread, or perhaps is it dwarfed by all the other changes? Are there any developments on this thinking from other countries?


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## Ajax Bay (17 May 2021)

Seasonality and its impact on COVID-19
Joint NERVTAG/ EMG Working Group - 21stOctober 2020
Executive summary [my precis with Vitamin D supplement]
• A combination of factors are likely to combine to exacerbate the epidemic of COVID-19 during the winter months.

continued susceptibility of the population,
the direct effect of environmental variables (such as temperature, humidity and UV light)
the indirect effect of poor weather leading to people spending more time indoors
• The direct effect of winter environmental conditions on transmission is likely to be small. Winter conditions will increase viral persistence and in day-time outdoor aerosols due to reduced UV levels (high confidence). However, the outdoor environment is not dominant in SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and indoor environmental conditions (where the vast majority of transmission is likely to occur) are more constant.
• Changes in behaviour are expected to occur. Individuals spend longer indoors during the winter, and ventilation rates in buildings are lower (medium confidence).
•Over the next 6-12 months [from Oct 2020] changes in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility (unrelated to seasonal factors) are likely to dominate the epidemiology. Susceptibility (which has now been massively by vaccination) is likely to have a much bigger impact on transmission than environmental factors (high confidence).
Edit: And I thought this gave a good overview (there are pictures, maps and graphs!): Could COVID-19 Have Seasons? Searching for Signals in Earth Data
“For SARS-CoV-2, it is too early to say,” said Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist “But if I were to put money on it, I would bet that there is seasonality to this virus and that, like with influenza and the endemic betacoronaviruses, it will track with environmental conditions such as temperature and especially absolute humidity.”


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## mjr (17 May 2021)

Now even the Telegraph is questioning the dither-and-delay habits https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...naction-let-indian-variant-take-hold-britain/


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## Rusty Nails (17 May 2021)

mjr said:


> Now even the Telegraph is questioning the dither-and-delay habits https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...naction-let-indian-variant-take-hold-britain/



Yebbut the vaccine rollout was brill so Boris can't have done anything wrong on Covid.


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## Ajax Bay (17 May 2021)

mjr said:


> even the Telegraph


I can't believe a man of your integrity accesses the Daily Telegraph, let alone quotes it.
It's behind a paywall. Does it say anything new? An insight into the difficult decision making process perhaps. If I recall one of the contemporary political issues was the UK-India trade talks progress.
Decisions can be made quickly in an authoritarian state. Mercifully the UK isn't that.


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## mjr (17 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I can't believe a man of your integrity accesses the Daily Telegraph, let alone quotes it.
> It's behind a paywall. Does it say anything new?


No paywall here. Example paragraphs: "Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, was determined to press ahead with a planned visit to India on April 25.

"The plan was that he would be able to announce that early discussions were now under way over a new trade deal. But as more and more data from India began to ring alarm bells, he came under pressure to call off the trip. Downing Street eventually pulled the plug on April 19, on the same day Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, told the House of Commons that India would also be added to the red list – but only from 4am on April 23.

"This was despite Downing Street having briefed journalists when the scheme was first unveiled that countries could be added "at a few hours' notice"."



> Decisions can be made quickly in an authoritarian state. Mercifully the UK isn't that.


There is another article added to The Telegraph site today claiming that the UK has become an authoritarian state, but it is an opinion piece that I don't think stands up to scrutiny!


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## shep (17 May 2021)

mjr said:


> Now I don my fireproof undies and await a parade of government supporters saying why it's wrong to point out the similarities with the failed "you should avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues" advice of 16th March 2020


I would imagine most on here have heard it all before, I know I certainly have, and won't be bothered picking a fight. 

As I've said in the past if people feel it's too early to go to the pub inside, theatre, cinema etc etc then no-ones forcing them to.

If people you know are and you feel unsafe meeting those people then don't, I think what's being said is go out but don't go mad.

It's up to the individual.


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## Ajax Bay (17 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Vaccines have worked against all other variants to date and assuming that this is the case for B.1.617.2, the number of infection cases may be more but the incidence of severe disease will still be far lower


Better than that from this:
"an observational study of vaccinated healthcare workers to evaluate the frequency of 'Break Through Infection' (infections after vaccination) of COVID-19 published by the Indraprastha Apollo Hospital, Delhi found that 97% were protected from infection and the chance of hospitalisation was 0.06%."
Vaccine was "Covishield" - the Oxford-AZ vaccine made under licence at SII Puna.
(This study, being an observational one, lacks the rigour of RCT but the results are within 90% confidence intervals of other estimates of Oxford-Az vaccine efficacy.)


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## shep (17 May 2021)

Well I've just got back from the local and it was brilliant to be back inside, also got tickets for our last home game so all in all things are looking up.


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## midlife (17 May 2021)

10 cases of the Indian variant in Cumbria according to the Beeb. Location not given out though..


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## SpokeyDokey (17 May 2021)

midlife said:


> 10 cases of the Indian variant in Cumbria according to the Beeb. Location not given out though..



My money is on Carlisle or Barrow in Furness.


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## midlife (17 May 2021)

South Lakeland according to the News and Star

https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/...n-variant-coronavirus-cases-cumbria-revealed/


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## classic33 (17 May 2021)

Blackburn and Darwen, last week.
_They revealed that cases of the variant first detected in India have been identified in three wards - Shear Brow and Corporation Park, Billinge and Beardwood and Bastwell and Daisyfield"_

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co....rwen-covid-care-vital-indian-variant-arrives/

_"We have had up to 63 cases (both confirmed and ‘probable’) of Indian variants, of which many are of the Indian ‘Variant of Concern’ B1.617.2, first identified on April 21."_

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co....urn-darwen-health-boss-tackle-indian-variant/


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## SpokeyDokey (17 May 2021)

midlife said:


> South Lakeland according to the News and Star
> 
> https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/...n-variant-coronavirus-cases-cumbria-revealed/



I didn't think the Cumbria DPH had revealed the location.

Maybe I need to lock myself down now!!!


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## midlife (17 May 2021)

Ah, that would be Colin "on the ball" Cox, lol


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## IaninSheffield (18 May 2021)

Last night's Channel 4 Dispatches was quite damning, presaging some of what Cummings is likely to be spilling next week?


View: https://twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1394339515028881408?s=20


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## Eric Olthwaite (18 May 2021)

> Two thirds of UK Covid deaths happened since September



As have 80% of EU Covid deaths
And it looks like by the end of this we will have a very similar total death rate to the EU as a whole

Yes of course the government has got some things wrong but the continual claim that in overall terms it has managed things dramatically worse than other comparable (i.e. European) countries simply doesn't hold water


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## Drago (18 May 2021)

IaninSheffield said:


> Last night's Channel 4 Dispatches was quite damning, presaging some of what Cummings is likely to be spilling next week?
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1394339515028881408?s=20



That looked interesting until I got as far as the word "dispatches", which precludes any real balance or neutrality.


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## IaninSheffield (18 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> As have 80% of EU Covid deaths
> And it looks like by the end of this we will have a very similar total death rate to the EU as a whole
> 
> Yes of course the government has got some things wrong but the continual claim that in overall terms it has managed things dramatically worse than other comparable (i.e. European) countries simply doesn't hold water


I don't recall any comparison with the EU being made in the programme, but acknowledge I may have missed it. Perhaps some of the decisions made in those countries were equally poor?
The argument offered was that delayed decision making (in the UK) led to more deaths (in the UK) than should have been the case had scientific advice been followed in a timely fashion.


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## IaninSheffield (18 May 2021)

Drago said:


> That looked interesting until I got as far as the word "dispatches", which precludes any real balance or neutrality.


A fair point, but I'm pretty sure the filmmakers were aiming for criticality, rather than balance or neutrality, so nothing unexpected there.
Where should we look for balanced, *credible* views, or a counterpoint to the claims made in programmes such as this?


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## Eric Olthwaite (18 May 2021)

IaninSheffield said:


> I don't recall any comparison with the EU being made in the programme, but acknowledge I may have missed it. Perhaps some of the decisions made in those countries were equally poor?
> 
> The argument offered was that delayed decision making (in the UK) led to more deaths (in the UK) than should have been the case had scientific
> advice been followed in a timely fashion.



If no European country has achieved the post-September death rate that Dispatches assumes a competent government could have achieved, that is evidence that Dispatches' assumption is invalid.


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## Ajax Bay (18 May 2021)

Here's the SAGE record of its meeting, referred to in the trailer (quick read, less than 2 pages):
https://assets.publishing.service.g...768_Fifty-eighth_SAGE_meeting_on_Covid-19.pdf
Whilst TV will make retrospective critiques like this, I hope those leading the efforts to deal with the 'here and now and future' don't get diverted by this soul-searching, except where lessons can be identified and changes made so that those lessons are 'learnt'.


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## DaveReading (18 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> If no European country has achieved the post-September death rate that Dispatches assumes a competent government could have achieved, that is evidence that Dispatches' assumption is invalid.



That's certainly one of the two possible explanations.


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## lazybloke (18 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Here's the SAGE record of its meeting, referred to in the trailer (quick read, less than 2 pages):
> https://assets.publishing.service.g...768_Fifty-eighth_SAGE_meeting_on_Covid-19.pdf
> Whilst TV will make retrospective critiques like this, I hope those leading the efforts to deal with the 'here and now and future' don't get diverted by this soul-searching, except where lessons can be identified and changes made so that those lessons are 'learnt'.


Thanks for that link - I'd seen it reported elsewhere that SAGE had recommended an IMMEDIATE lockdown (and other measures) back in September, but hadn't previously seen it in black and white.

Didn't see the Dispatches programme, but I remember only too well the criticism of HMG last autumn when the SAGE advice was resisted (ignored?) for many weeks. When the lockdown finally came for just 4 weeks from early November, it was too little too late, and was accompanied by promises of a normal Christmas.

Boris later had to withdraw that promise, reimpose restrictions, and rely on the public to be compliant and you could say "cautious" in how they celebrated Christmas .The scale of the New Year wave shows what an absolute disaster that policy was.

Boris can rightly point to the emergence of the Kent variant as an aggravating factor, but the fact remains that SAGE advice was ignored for far too long.

Here we are months later; and again there have been promises of lockdown being relaxed, overseas travel, no masks for school children, indoor dining & drinking. Again there is a variant spreading - this not taking anyone by surprise - we already know about it ; and once again experts are saying it's too soon to relax, too soon to travel, too soon to mix indoors. Experts are also saying a 3rd wave is inevitable, and even if we had 90% of the population vaccinated with 90% efficacy, that would still be many millions vulnerable.
But we don't have 90% of the population vaccinated, we're tens of millions short of that, so it's only right to question whether Boris has chosen the appropriate balance between economic recovery and protection of public health.

So what lesson has Boris learned?
Not so long ago he is thought to have said "F**k Business". Now it seems that public health comes second behind economic recovery.
Wrong lesson learned?


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## Ajax Bay (18 May 2021)

lazybloke said:


> it's only right to question whether Boris has chosen the appropriate balance between economic recovery and protection of public health.
> So what lesson has Boris learned?
> Not so long ago he is thought to have said "F**k Business". Now it seems that public health comes second behind economic recovery.
> Wrong lesson learned?


Right to question it. Seems you have the @lazybloke answer already. Oh, and what was the lesson? Don't delay decisions? Or what? What's the plan in leafy Surrey? Make some suggestions.
The reason why the phased relaxation of restrictions is 'phased' 5 weeks apart, is to that we can have less uncertainty about the effects of each relaxation and take account of other changes eg discovering (with evidence) vaccines are even more effective than previously thought or the emergence and spread of a VoC. The Prime Minister seemed (to me) last Friday to make it clear that 21 June was still a 'not earlier than' date and that it'd be data not dates.
Latest SAGE 89 record (13 May):
"The “earlier, harder, broader” principles of responding quickly, taking strong measures, and doing so over a wider geography than where issues have been identified in response to outbreaks,remain relevant. Testing, tracing and, in particular, isolating cases remains very important.
"If vaccination reduces the likelihood of transmission for this variant, increasing regional vaccination in areas where it is prevalent could dampen growth in infections,although it takes several weeks for vaccines to provide protection. The benefits would need to be balanced against the costs of moving vaccines from elsewhere. JCVI continues to review the evidence on different vaccination strategies."


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## fossyant (18 May 2021)

This increase in the Indian variant is filling me with dread again as I can see the whole of Greater Manchester getting restrictions like last July due to specific areas - same reasons as last time due to travel for education and work. Doom and gloom.


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## mjr (19 May 2021)

France is reopening cafe terraces. https://www.france24.com/en/france/...tural-venues-after-six-month-covid-19-closure

German goverment has quarantined two tower blocks where B1.617.2 has been found. https://www.irishnews.com/news/worl...se-buildings-after-new-variant-found-2326471/

Romanians are half-ignoring their goverment relaxing restrictions and continuing with widespread face coverings and keeping shop visits short. (euronews tv)


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## Pale Rider (19 May 2021)

Anyone tempted to book two holidays for the same time?

This couple has Portugal as the preferred destination with Norfolk as a back up.

They are only taking advantage of no cancellation fees offered by venues, but their conduct strikes me as more selfish than sensible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57155307


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## roubaixtuesday (19 May 2021)

Taking the wider view:

It looks as though worldwide, deaths are falling and never quite reached the previous January peak. The spring resurgence was driven by India, and looks to have been hugely exacerbated by the new variant there. India remains appalling, and we'll see if that variant drives a further resurgence beyond India next; it's by no means obvious, though still possible, that worldwide "peak COVID" was passed in January.

Europe and North America are the good news story where the vaccine rollout together with restrictions has the virus consistently in retreat, and unless immune escape variants emerge, we can be confident the epidemic will not re-emerge to previous levels.

South America is awful (the worst of all the continents on a per-population basis), close to an all time high with no obvious end in sight.

Africa has the appearance of not being problematic, though to what extent reporting is reliable is highly questionable.

We need to get vaccines to the world. Pfizer have made $15bn, and their vaccine is now proved stable refrigerated. Action to make this and all the other vaccines manufactured and affordable to everybody is imperative.


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## roubaixtuesday (19 May 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Anyone tempted to book two holidays for the same time?
> 
> This couple has Portugal as the preferred destination with Norfolk as a back up.
> 
> ...



There was a story yesterday about how travel companies are extremely worried about this; having offered "no cancellation fees" bookings right up to on the day, the fear is that there will be a tsunami of cancellations at the last minute. Meanwhile, people can't find anywhere to stay.


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## matticus (19 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> India remains appalling,
> <snippage>
> 
> South America is awful (the worst of all the continents on a per-population basis), close to an all time high with no obvious end in sight.
> ...


I am somewhat concerned that those 3 areas may all have dreadful under-reporting. Time will tell. It may not affect us much here in the 1st World with our vaccines and so on, but we live in a global economy now ...


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## lazybloke (19 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Right to question it. Seems you have the @lazybloke answer already. Oh, and what was the lesson? Don't delay decisions? Or what? What's the plan in leafy Surrey? *Make some suggestions*.


The single most important thing I'd do differently is to stop making ridiculously optimistic promises that can't be kept. Eg a "normal Christmas/ summer, or an irreversible roadmap out of lockdown".
Every time a promise is broken it puts a massive dent in compliance with restrictions; just look at the new year spike.

There's no clear sign that the pandemic will be ended by the current vaccines, so a future lockdown is possible, or even likely.


I'd have done several things differently over recent months. Here's a list, some are opportunities that were clear policy misses at the time (ie not with the benefit of hindsight). Others are options that could have been (and may have been) considered. 


Not allow students back to colleges last September
Perhaps the most likely cohort of society to mix, students were allowed to travel across the country back to colleges. It seemed reckless at the time, so the resulting spikes of infections in student digs were no surprise.
Not rush to reopen schools
When vaccinations had barely started, the mixing of generations was still a significant infection risk but schools were forced to reopen. For me personally, that meant my family & support bubble of 5 was now exposed indirectly to 1,500 other children (all unvaccinated and mixing in an indoor environment).
Masks in schools
With community transmission of the Indian variant proved within numerous UK localities, why has the masks requirement been dropped in classrooms this week? Pupils are still the single largest unvaccinated cohort of UK society and are still forced into small indoor spaces together. How many children will suffer Long covid (or worse) as a result of this policy decision?
Act more quickly in the face of emerging risks
On 2nd April it was announced that Pakistan would soon go onto the red list, because infections had risen to over 5,000 the previous day. India had seen 81,000 infections but didn't go onto the red list for another three weeks! Why the inconsistent approach? Why are people given several days of grace to return from red list countries before restrictions kick in?
It should be a publicly stated policy that Red list restrictions be enforced without any grace period. So anyone travelling to an amber country should perhaps have to show they have the ability to pay for quarantine hotel in case the worst happens; maybe even pay a deposit prior to travel.
Reduce all travel to reduce exposure to ALL variants (known and unknown)
A colleague managed to fly for a holiday a day after restrictions were imposed; the airline weren't interested in enforcing restrictions; that wasn't their role. People apparently continued to travel without penalty until the government finally announced a fine for unnecessary travel in late March. I've not seen any stats to know how effectively those fines have been used.
Is it wise to permit holiday travel now, especially when airports are allowing red list and green list passngers to mix in the arrivals halls for hours at a time? chap on TV said it's not for airports to pay to keep red and green travellers separate. Why not? Airports should not be permitted to open unless they exercise a duty of care to passengers.
Tighter border controls
Did incoming lorry drivers bring variants into the country? Hard to know, because the UK didn't bother testing incoming drivers until only very recently, so a clear picture might not have emerged from the stats yet.
Some commentators have said the UK is too reliant on food imports to close borders (unlike Australia), but why does food need to be accompanied all the way to a UK destination by the same driver? Deliveries could be handed-off by drivers at ports and collected by a local driver at the UK ports.
Give a consistent message
If there's one thing this government does terribly, it's communication with the public. Mixed messaging ranging from the Barnard Castle debacle to confusion this week about the meaning of permitted travel. The PM and his ministers need to give the same clear message, and get away from the nonsense of " you can go to pubs but be careful, you can hug granny but don't, you travel to France but shouldn't, etc".
We're warned a 3rd wave is inevitable. I expect Boris is content to assume it won't be nearly as bad as the previous wave, and he'll only react if the stats become alarming. In other words, he reacts to issues rather that risks. If I took that approach in my one of my cybersecurity assignments I'd quickly be out of a job. It's astonishing that 127,000 deaths isn't seen as a dismal failure.
Especially when we look other island nations such as Iceland and Australia, and see exactly how poor the UK response has been.


----------



## Bromptonaut (19 May 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Anyone tempted to book two holidays for the same time?
> 
> This couple has Portugal as the preferred destination with Norfolk as a back up.
> 
> ...



No but I'm not remotely surprised that people do this. It's said to be a huge problem week in week out for the Caravan and Motor Home Club where people book sites they may not take up and cancel penalty free a week before. 

There will be a sudden glut of UK accom available at short notice in July and owners, who took remunerative bookings in good faith, will be left with a fire sale to at least cover their costs.


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## matticus (19 May 2021)

lazybloke said:


> ...
> Especially when we look other island nations such as Iceland and Australia, and see exactly how poor the UK response has been.


Agreed with most of your post, but pretty please, let's not go back to saying the UK is an island nation just like Australia!!!


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## MrGrumpy (19 May 2021)

matticus said:


> Agreed with most of your post, but pretty please, let's not go back to saying the UK is an island nation just like Australia!!!


It could have and should have had full control of its borders though !? Foreign holidays and eat out to help out I recall was the main reasons for the rise in cases last Autumn. However here we are again, folk booking holidays again and complaining about about unable to go or quarantining. The message should have been no foreign travel unless absolutely necessary at least for this year.


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## Ajax Bay (19 May 2021)

matticus said:


> let's not go back to saying the UK is an island nation just like Australia


Air travellers through UK = 300M plus
Air travellers through/to/from Australia = 9M
(Normal times)
But I agree with @MrGrumpy last sentence. I'd still like an insight into the range of reasons 20,000 people needed to fly into UK from India in a week in April.
On the plus side, I'm very much looking forward to seeing my nonagenarian mother for the first time in seven months (she lives in UK too) tomorrow.


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## matticus (19 May 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> It could have and should have had full control of its borders though !?


Why are you telling ME this? Did you actually read my post??

<Puts on King Canute costume. Again ... >


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## Ajax Bay (19 May 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> Foreign holidays and eat out to help out I recall was the main reasons for the rise in cases last Autumn.


May I ask you to share on what that recollection is based? Were these the main reasons?
Certainly back in February 2020, people returning from the continent was the main conduit for virus import (rather than from China or other areas where outbreaks had been reported). But in the autumn of 2020?
I suggest that the necessary travel and attendance and new residence of hundreds of thousands of students at their new colleges/universities must be well up there as a 'main reason'.
Another 'main reason' was the emergence (didn't recognise it for some time) of the VoC variant B.1.1.7 with significantly higher transmissibility (with a fully susceptible population, unlike in May 2021 btw).
And, with moderate uncertainty, the seasonal effect of moving into autumn will have been a 'main reason' Current modelling assesses (makes reasonable assumptions) that as 10-20%.
EOTHO:
"A back of the envelope calculation suggests that the program is accountable for between 8 to 17 percent of all new local infection clusters during that time period."
A Treasury spokesperson rejected the economist’s findings. “We do not recognise these figures – which, as the study itself admits, are ‘back-of-the-envelope’ calculations. Many other European counterparts have experienced an uptick in cases, irrespective of whether similar measures for the hospitality industry have been introduced.”


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## Eric Olthwaite (19 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Many other European counterparts have experienced an uptick in cases, irrespective of whether similar measures for the hospitality industry have been introduced.



This. Different countries in Europe had widely differing strategies, and virtually all of them saw a second wave in the autumn.


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## roubaixtuesday (19 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> May I ask you to share on what that recollection is based? Were these the main reasons?
> Certainly back in February 2020, people returning from the continent was the main conduit for virus import (rather than from China or other areas where outbreaks had been reported). But in the autumn of 2020?
> I suggest that the necessary travel and attendance and new residence of hundreds of thousands of students at their new colleges/universities must be well up there as a 'main reason'.
> Another 'main reason' was the emergence (didn't recognise it for some time) of the VoC variant B.1.1.7 with significantly higher transmissibility (with a fully susceptible population, unlike in May 2021 btw).
> ...




1. Cases rose throughout the summer once restrictions were at their minimum. 

2. Schools return likely significant as well as universities. 

3. The "Kent variant" was first detected in a sample from Sept but likely not significant until Nov/Dec

4. Genomic testing suggested significant import from travellers last summer https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...n-from-spain-accounts-for-most-uk-cases-study

To deconvolute all contributions is impossible, but it is uncontroversial that indoor mixing is high risk and EOTHO subsidised that.


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## roubaixtuesday (19 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> Different countries in Europe had widely differing



For the second wave, different in what way?


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## Eric Olthwaite (19 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> For the second wave, different in what way?



For example, Italy re-opened bars and restaurants in mid-May. The second wave didn't occur until 4-5 months later.


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## PK99 (19 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> This. Different countries in Europe had widely differing strategies, and virtually all of them saw a second wave in the autumn.



Presumably this is the Autumn uptick in question - looks bad, does it not?







The European comparator data is interesting in this context.


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## roubaixtuesday (19 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> For example, Italy re-opened bars and restaurants in mid-May. The second wave didn't occur until 4-5 months later.



Not so; cases in Italy rose consistently from early July. 






I don't know what restrictions were in place when, but the *strategy* seems very similar to the UK, as does the outcome: restrictions were lifted as cases fell, then cases rose when restrictions were lifted.

A log scale shows this much more clearly than linear plots do, which obscure exponential growth at low absolute numbers.


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## PK99 (19 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Not so; cases in Italy rose consistently from early July.
> 
> View attachment 589600
> 
> ...



I think this plot is a little more clear


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## lazybloke (19 May 2021)

matticus said:


> Agreed with most of your post, but pretty please, let's not go back to saying the UK is an island nation just like Australia!!!


I must have missed discussion of island nations - dare I do a search?

I mentioned Australia not because it's an island nation but because it has managed covid very well. I could have said NZ, Iceland, Jamaica, Taiwan or IoM. I could also have said Finland or Israel.

The overall UK response to covid has been so poor that natural defenses like the sea have been rendered useless.
Boris needs to learn from those mistakes. His covid strategy relies largely on our successful vaccination programme, but needs also to be informed by successes elsewhere. Develop best pratice.

Don't rush to open everything up prematurely, it won't bring normality back, but it will cause more death. 
There is no normality when 127,000 loved ones are missing. don't add to that number.

Could do better, C-


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## lazybloke (19 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> This. Different countries in Europe had widely differing strategies, and virtually all of them saw a second wave in the autumn.


If you want to compare to other Europen countries, feel free to wallow in conclusions of "we all faced the same problems".

Then look at countries that actually did well, and have a think about what they did differently.


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## MrGrumpy (19 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> May I ask you to share on what that recollection is based? Were these the main reasons?
> Certainly back in February 2020, people returning from the continent was the main conduit for virus import (rather than from China or other areas where outbreaks had been reported). But in the autumn of 2020?
> I suggest that the necessary travel and attendance and new residence of hundreds of thousands of students at their new colleges/universities must be well up there as a 'main reason'.
> Another 'main reason' was the emergence (didn't recognise it for some time) of the VoC variant B.1.1.7 with significantly higher transmissibility (with a fully susceptible population, unlike in May 2021 btw).
> ...


 Ok maybe not the whole reason but it did add to it 
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...d-second-wave-of-covid-19-study-says-12118285


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## PK99 (19 May 2021)

lazybloke said:


> If you want to compare to other Europen countries, feel free to wallow in conclusions of "we all faced the same problems".
> 
> Then look at countries that actually did well, and have a think about what they did differently.



IMO, it is less about what they did differently than it is about what different inherent characteristics they have.


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## lazybloke (19 May 2021)

PK99 said:


> IMO, it is less about what they did differently than it is about what different inherent characteristics they have.


Sure; those different characteristics would be important in the initial shape of how the pandemic affects each country, but then each government must respond appropriately (and learn lessons along the way to refine that response).
Depending on how you measure the course of the pandemic, we'd either agree or disagree on whether characteristics or response was the biggest influence on the result. Either way, I still think HMG could have done better.


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## PK99 (19 May 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> Ok maybe not the whole reason but it did add to it
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...d-second-wave-of-covid-19-study-says-12118285



https://fullfact.org/news/did-eat-out-help-out-cause-covid-spread/

Extracts;
_Much of this has been fuelled by a paper published* in October which suggested the scheme was responsible for 8-17% of new infection clusters (i.e. infections that shared a common location).

This appears to have been misunderstood by several media outlets, who conflated it with a rise in actual infection rates. 

##_

*How reliable are these findings?*
It is plausible that EOHO increased contact between people (the possibility of transmission via restaurants was acknowledged recently by Professor Jonathan Van-Tam) and this would therefore raise the likelihood of them spreading Covid. It is hard to estimate the size of this specific effect, however. 

The study itself refers to the 8-17% figure as a “back of the envelope calculation”, suggesting it is a rough estimate. The 17% figure is the upper limit of this estimate, but it could be as low as 8%.

Other experts** have also warned against relying too heavily on the numbers in the paper’s conclusions. 

##

* (Preprint) https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp.517.2020.pdf


** https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...t-out-to-help-out-scheme-and-covid-19-spread/


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## SpokeyDokey (19 May 2021)

lazybloke said:


> If you want to compare to other Europen countries, feel free to wallow in conclusions of "we all faced the same problems".
> 
> Then look at countries that actually did well, and have a think about what they did differently.



I don't think you can say at this stage which countries did well until the course of the pandemic ends globally. 

According to Worldometer we are now in 17th place re deaths/million population (high to low) and steadily dropping down the rankings.


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## mjr (19 May 2021)

PK99 said:


> The European comparator data is interesting in this context.


The usually cautions about different reporting standards and methods should be remembered. Headline numbers are not all directly comparable.

Also, the discussion was about wave start dates. Graphs of rate of growth are available on ourworldindata and would be more informative.


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## lazybloke (20 May 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I don't think you can say at this stage which countries did well until the course of the pandemic ends globally.
> 
> According to Worldometer we are now in 17th place re deaths/million population (high to low) and steadily dropping down the rankings.


Not disagreeing with that in any way, all because of our early access to the AZ vacccine; a fantastic success story. 

Nevertheless, the the government failed in other areas of covid strategy:
- failed to prevent community transmission of variants
- failed to prevent entry of Indian variant
- ignored sage advice
The above failings have contributed to significant numbers of deaths in this country.

Thank you for pointing that deaths are still increasing in other countries; that doesn't excuse errors made here.

God help us if a really nasty and vaccine-resistant variant emerges; as current evidence suggests the UK will not be able to deal with it effectively. 
Many countries would be in the same boat, but not all of them. So I'll repeat myself; lessons can be learned from successes elsewhere.


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## DCLane (21 May 2021)

There's a Yorkshire Covid variant? Does it come with a flat cap and a Whippet?


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## MrGrumpy (21 May 2021)

DCLane said:


> There's a Yorkshire Covid variant? Does it come with a flat cap and a Whippet?


and a card box apparently


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## fossyant (25 May 2021)

Groan, really, cant see this being legally enforceable 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...id-advice-against-travel-in-and-out-of-bolton


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## mjr (25 May 2021)

fossyant said:


> Groan, really, cant see this being legally enforceable
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...id-advice-against-travel-in-and-out-of-bolton


Why does it need to be? Brits will do the right thing and follow advice for the good of everyone without needing to be asked twice, won't they?


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## Pale Rider (25 May 2021)

fossyant said:


> Groan, really, cant see this being legally enforceable
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...id-advice-against-travel-in-and-out-of-bolton



That's why it's advice.

Predictable moaning from the leftie local authorities who are far more interested in scoring political points against a Tory government than the health of the people they supposedly represent.



mjr said:


> Why does it need to be? Brits will do the right thing and follow advice for the good of everyone without needing to be asked twice, won't they?



Strange to relate, the majority will take it on board.


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## Craig the cyclist (25 May 2021)

fossyant said:


> Groan, really, cant see this being legally enforceable
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...id-advice-against-travel-in-and-out-of-bolton



You are probably right. But if you live in the area, or were thinking of going to the area, you should not leave, or not visit, the area. People will though, they will come and go like normal, then in a few weeks there will be an outcry that not enough was done. It is the behaviour we are seeing all over the country. 

Opposition and community 'Do more!' 
Government and PHE 'OK, don't leave your area' 
Opposition and community 'They can't do that to our community, it's not fair' 
Government and PHE 'It will really slow the transmission and save lives'
Behaviour doesn't change
Opposition and community 'I can't believe they didn't do more'


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## Bromptonaut (25 May 2021)

fossyant said:


> Groan, really, cant see this being legally enforceable
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...id-advice-against-travel-in-and-out-of-bolton



If they want it followed then sneaking it onto the .gov website in instalments and without publicity is a bit odd.....


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## fossyant (25 May 2021)

It's filling me with dread at the moment as where I live, not too far away from Bolton (20 miles), has infection rates below the national average, and lowest in GM, but I can see us being back where we were last July and getting banned from travelling again because of other areas, so get kicked out of North Wales as happened in September. They can't do the whole of GM as only a few areas are high on infection, Bolton being at January levels, way ahead of everywhere else, and it's only a few small areas within Bolton !


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## Pale Rider (25 May 2021)

Bromptonaut said:


> If they want it followed then sneaking it onto the .gov website in instalments and without publicity is a bit odd.....



Making the enormous leap that protecting people is your priority rather than sniping at the government, why does it matter how the advice is disseminated, provided it is?

The advice is being picked up by mainstream media, as was inevitable, which is giving it far more traction than the relatively small number of people who will be checking the government's website.

I will boldly assert that everyone on here heard about the advice from news stories.


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## Kajjal (25 May 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Making the enormous leap that protecting people is your priority rather than sniping at the government, why does it matter how the advice is disseminated, provided it is?
> 
> The advice is being picked up by mainstream media, as was inevitable, which is giving it far more traction than the relatively small number of people who will be checking the government's website.
> 
> I will boldly assert that everyone on here heard about the advice from news stories.


It matters so the relevant authorities have as much time as possible to put things in place and take action as needed before it is released to the public. Rather than having a “far right cabal” withholding information until it has much less value. Better the “lefties” know in advance so they can make good use of the information.


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## vickster (25 May 2021)

Shouldn't the local authorities be keeping a close eye on what is happening locally already and communicating with government?


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## Adam4868 (25 May 2021)

So they were warned four days ago but forgot to tell anybody ? Maybe it might of been a idea to make a announcement 

View: https://twitter.com/helendalby/status/1397092120448667655?s=19


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## roubaixtuesday (25 May 2021)

Beyond bizarre to advise whole populations not to travel, but not tell them. 

Our kids school has sent whole of year 12 home after multiple positives.


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## Bromptonaut (25 May 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Making the enormous leap that protecting people is your priority rather than sniping at the government, why does it matter how the advice is disseminated, provided it is?



It was disseminated by the media after somebody noticed the guidance and publicised it. By that time though at least some of it had been extant for nearly a week.

The government's line, per Dr Coffey on Today prog, is that it re-iterates a statement from the PM in his speech last Monday rolling out that days easing of restrictions. In fact his words there only mention one or two areas and that people where there are spikes should be 'extra cautious'.

We now have what amounts to 'Lockdown Lite' in several specific areas. It seems nobody spoke to local government or local health chiefs in those areas and no announcement was made.

Given that the whole purpose is to get the guidance followed and stop the spread that seems to me to be incompetence _summa-cum-laude_.

I'd say the same whichever stripe was in Downing Street.

Edit to add that Nadhim Zahawi's statement to the Commons has not provided much clarification and in places contradicts the web advice.


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## Bromptonaut (25 May 2021)

fossyant said:


> It's filling me with dread at the moment as where I live, not too far away from Bolton (20 miles), has infection rates below the national average, and lowest in GM, but I can see us being back where we were last July and getting banned from travelling again because of other areas, so get kicked out of North Wales as happened in September. They can't do the whole of GM as only a few areas are high on infection, Bolton being at January levels, way ahead of everywhere else, and it's only a few small areas within Bolton !



Potentially similar issue here if they use local government boundaries. 
We're now in the Unitary Council of West Northants. If there's a problem here it will be in urban area of Northampton which, until April, was a Borough in its own right, and not in the more rural hinterland around Towcester and Daventry.


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## roubaixtuesday (25 May 2021)

Look's like we're in Matt Lucas territory again:

Go on holiday (but don't go on holiday)
Get down the pub (but don't go to the pub)
Go to Bolton (but don't go to Bolton)

etc.

It's almost as though there was no plan on how to deal with variant outbreaks...


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## mjr (25 May 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> You are probably right. But if you live in the area, or were thinking of going to the area, you should not leave, or not visit, the area. People will though, they will come and go like normal, then in a few weeks there will be an outcry that not enough was done. It is the behaviour we are seeing all over the country.
> 
> Opposition and community 'Do more!'
> Government and PHE 'OK, don't leave your area'
> ...


Shouldn't England have a government that doesn't make mistakes so obvious that they can be widely predicted by Internet Forum People? ...that doesn't make mistakes they've made before, repeatedly?

Is this government too stubborn and too proud to sacrifice the hostage to fortune it gave away in February and delay or partially reverse the unlocking?


----------



## mjr (25 May 2021)

Bromptonaut said:


> Potentially similar issue here if they use local government boundaries.
> We're now in the Unitary Council of West Northants. If there's a problem here it will be in urban area of Northampton which, until April, was a Borough in its own right, and not in the more rural hinterland around Towcester and Daventry.


I thought the BBC had been reporting that Towcester had the B1.617.2 variant in two schools? And the hinterland there is so rural that not all the villages have schools any more, instead bussing students to Towcester, Brackley and larger villages like Bugbrooke, Deanshanger, Roade and so on. So I suspect any outbreak could spread to that hinterland more easily than one might think at first.


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## Bromptonaut (25 May 2021)

I take your point, schools have been a vector. Several hundred a day bussed to Campion are but one issue. My neighbour who works there says social distancing in corridors etc isn't good. Last time it was in town - HMOs and the Uni were probably factors.


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## mjr (25 May 2021)

Ireland likely to set a time limit on indoor dining https://www.thejournal.ie/restaurants-failte-ireland-5447515-May2021/


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## johnblack (25 May 2021)

mjr said:


> I thought the BBC had been reporting that Towcester had the B1.617.2 variant in two schools? And the hinterland there is so rural that not all the villages have schools any more, instead bussing students to Towcester, Brackley and larger villages like Bugbrooke, Deanshanger, Roade and so on. So I suspect any outbreak could spread to that hinterland more easily than one might think at first.


The villages nearly all have primary schools, all the villages you mentioned are for secondary education. The Towcester outbreak was at Nicholas Hawksmoor primary school, but would more than likely also have been in Sponne secondary school. Incidentally, Sponne does not accept "bussed in" children, it's catchment area is Towcester only.


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## Bromptonaut (25 May 2021)

johnblack said:


> The villages nearly all have primary schools, all the villages you mentioned are for secondary education. The Towcester outbreak was at Nicholas Hawksmoor primary school, but would more than likely also have been in Sponne secondary school. Incidentally, Sponne does not accept "bussed in" children, it's catchment area is Towcester only.



Does that not include Towcester's surrounding villages?

I've a friend in Greens Norton who has a son at Sponne, it's admissions criteria suggest that its catchment is: 
Abthorpe, Adstone, Blakesley, Bradden, Caldecote, Easton Neston, Farthingstone, Foxley, Greens Norton, Litchborough, Maidford, Silverstone, Slapton, Tiffield, Towcester, Wappenham, Whittlebury, Wood Burcote and Woodend.

Some of those surely will travel by bus?


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## johnblack (25 May 2021)

Bromptonaut said:


> Does that not include Towcester's surrounding villages?
> 
> I've a friend in Greens Norton who has a son at Sponne.


There are a few exceptions but it is now very tight, (probably draw a circle a couple of miles round it) but because Towcester has grown so much they just can't fit them in. There used to be a bus from our village, that stopped, but you could still go if you could get them there, but that is no longer an option.


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## lazybloke (25 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Look's like we're in Matt Lucas territory again:
> 
> Go on holiday (but don't go on holiday)
> Get down the pub (but don't go to the pub)
> ...


Community transmission of the Indian variant was a problem even before the recent relaxations, so I don't understand why the government expect 'advice' to be an effective control now.

Local lockdowns would be really hard, but that's the kind of leadership that is needed to address serious public health issues. I'm astonished that both the government and the opposition oppose that options; it's a lack of responsibility and leadership. 

And as it's already speading widely, there will be no benefit from pausing the next relaxations in June. Too little, too late. The 3rd wave of infections looks inevitable.

Relying on vaccines will give a good degree of protection against fruther deaths, but I wonder what the projections are.
If the target is 2 jabs for every adult and child in the country then we're about 75 millions doses away from achieving that goal, which leaves a lot of people still vulnerable. Don't forget that efficacy is as low as 60% for the Indiant variant (AZ vaccine).
This could still be messy.


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## Craig the cyclist (25 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Go on holiday (but don't go on holiday)
> Get down the pub (but don't go to the pub)
> Go to Bolton (but don't go to Bolton)



I listen to most press conferences, and read a lot of reports etc, I haven't read a single one where anyone has been told to either go on holiday, go to the pub or go to Bolton. Where have you heard that clear instruction from?

I think you should give us the link to where these instructions were issued to the population.


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## Bromptonaut (25 May 2021)

There's no instruction because it's advice with (as yet at least) no force of law but @roubaixtuesday's line is just as apt either way. . 

The detail is here: 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-1...a-where-the-new-covid-19-variant-is-spreading


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## Ajax Bay (25 May 2021)

Laws are laws (and in UK people generally abide by them).
Guidance is guidance, and people take note of that guidance. (NB fools and wise men/women caveat.)
We live in a relatively liberal society (in UK) thank goodness and the imposition of C19 restrictions, by law, have been for the (greater) good of the local and wider community.
With freedom comes commensurate responsibility: this applies to governments, regional, local/community leaders, and individuals alike.
Laws imposing restrictions on specific bounded geographic areas cause a variety of secondary problems and I think the government have decided (maybe learning from their experience of applying that approach last summer/early autumn) that national laws are sensible (the phased relaxation 'not earlier than' approach). But imposing behaviours on specific outbreak towns where necessary is best done by grown up guidance. It would have been smart to get mayors and council leaderships on side and pushing together in the scrum.


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## Eric Olthwaite (26 May 2021)

Cummings' testimony is much more interesting than I expected. He's not focusing on throwing Boris under the bus (although there is criticism of him); he's focusing on throwing SAGE and Dept of Health (i.e. the scientists) under the bus.


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## mjr (26 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> Cummings' testimony is much more interesting than I expected. He's not focusing on throwing Boris under the bus (although there is criticism of him); he's focusing on throwing SAGE and Dept of Health (i.e. the scientists) under the bus.


Cummings remains a fascinating character. He just said it was stupid that he was in such a powerful position, that Boris was and that the alternative in an election was Corbyn. He endorsed the view that we are "led by donkeys", that they let down great people on the front line, and that bad policies and decisions had resulted in deaths


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## mjr (26 May 2021)

Here is that whiteboard with the cabinet plan versus the Cummings-Warner one:

View: https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1397452170249842691


I see a thread about Cummings's session in general is now open at https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/the-dominic-cummings-thread.275561/


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## mjr (26 May 2021)

Inspired by Cummings bringing lockdown politics back to the fore again, at lunchtime I did the massively-flawed back-of-envelope comparison I mentioned weeks ago. This is showing what happens to cases if lockdowns slowly reduce a reproduction rate that slowly increases towards 3, in two scenarios:

1. in the "dither" scenario, lockdown isn't used until the rate hits 2.5, then it is released when it's down to 0.7, then we get "4 reproduction periods off" (which means slightly more than a month for covid, I think), then lockdown continues until the rate reaches 0.7 again, then released, then it isn't used again until the rate hits 1.3;

2. in the "containment" scenario, lockdown starts when the rate his 1.5, then is repeatedly released when the rate reaches 0.8 and re-imposed at 1.1.

You would spend the same total time in lockdown but cases never explode and actually slowly diminish (because the midpoint of the catch/release range is below 1). Then you remember that the total number of deaths is basically a consistent fraction of the area below the curve.

This graph is natural log scale and the calculation is not limited to any particular population (so herd immunity will never kick in), so the vertical axis is doubly gibberish, but dither scenario has thousands of times more cases in total, which means a lot more deaths 

Finally, I say again that this is a back-of-the-envelope lunchtime calculation making loads of assumptions, including that there is no such thing as partial lockdown, but I suspect the basic concept probably holds and something similar but better underlies the WHO advice to lockdown sharp and early which gov.uk have repeatedly failed to follow.


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## shep (26 May 2021)

Why do you even spend a thought on all this?


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## deptfordmarmoset (26 May 2021)

shep said:


> Why do you even spend a thought on all this?


The pursuit of understanding? Discussing ideas? It looks like a completely legitimate use of the thread to me.


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## mjr (26 May 2021)

shep said:


> Why do you even spend a thought on all this?


It was raining, so instead of going out on the bike, I thought about why I've only seen the previous generation of my family on video calls for over a year and wondered if there was a better approach to what was done. Seems there was.

Why aren't you livid about the thousands extra killed by dithering?


----------



## Profpointy (26 May 2021)

classic33 said:


> They are made to quarantine before leaving their arrival airport. Nearly all have hotels that can be used, keeping them all in one place.



A number of my Indian collegues had gone back for family reasons, funerals sadly for some, and they were required to quarantine in a hotel back here on their return. It was all quite strict, and they happily complied and saw it as sensible / necessary and it cost them a fair wodge of cash too. Probably helped that our industry (IT/telecomms) is well placed for zoom meetings and remote working


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## HMS_Dave (26 May 2021)

mjr said:


> It was raining, so instead of going out on the bike, I thought about why I've only seen the previous generation of my family on video calls for over a year and wondered if there was a better approach to what was done. Seems there was.
> 
> Why aren't you livid about the thousands extra killed by dithering?


At times it has been shambolic. But then sudden outbreaks of disease tend to be sudden. I have been extremely critical of this government but the vaccine rollout has been a huge success and therefore saved thousands of lives, I'm quite sure...

I'm sure many are very critical of our EU partners who have largely dithered over AZ vaccine, how many lives has that cost? We should all be critical where criticism is due, irrespective of which political team you support...


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## roubaixtuesday (26 May 2021)

.


HMS_Dave said:


> I'm sure many are very critical of our EU partners who have largely dithered over AZ vaccine, how many lives has that cost?



Far less. 

The EU vaccine rollout is about six weeks behind; most deaths are reduced by restrictions, not vaccinating in this phase. 

That's not too say they've been great, just nowhere near as bad as the pervading narrative.


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## shep (27 May 2021)

mjr said:


> Why aren't you livid about the thousands extra killed by dithering?


What would me being 'Livid' about something out of my control be of any benefit to me or anyone else?


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## Unkraut (27 May 2021)

shep said:


> What would me being 'Livid' about something out of my control be of any benefit to me or anyone else?


I take your point, but conversely apathetic indifference and a shrug of the shoulders is also wrong if it gives those who failed in their responsibilities the idea that they can get away with it because no-one really cares.

I don't think when the history of this is written that the death toll actually due to covid will stand out all that much, what might well stand out is an increased death toll due to postponed operations caused by an overloaded healthcare system, which in turn was due to government incompetence.

Beware propaganda designed to make you forget what happened - I recently had a phone call to my sister who said she now thinks Boris didn't do such a bad job after all. She reads the Torygraph. I don't think this is unrelated to her new-found admiration for Boris.


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## mjr (27 May 2021)

Melbourne back in lockdown due to 26 cases. Suspected leak from quarantine hotel blamed by some. https://www.thejournal.ie/melbourne-placed-in-lockdown-due-to-covid-19-surge-5449339-May2021/


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## mjr (27 May 2021)

shep said:


> What would me being 'Livid' about something out of my control be of any benefit to me or anyone else?


You might start asking good questions about things you do control, such as who you elect or support to govern.


----------



## shep (27 May 2021)

Unkraut said:


> I take your point, but conversely apathetic indifference and a shrug of the shoulders is also wrong if it gives those who failed in their responsibilities the idea that they can get away with it because no-one really cares.
> 
> I don't think when the history of this is written that the death toll actually due to covid will stand out all that much, what might well stand out is an increased death toll due to postponed operations caused by an overloaded healthcare system, which in turn was due to government incompetence.
> 
> Beware propaganda designed to make you forget what happened - I recently had a phone call to my sister who said she now thinks Boris didn't do such a bad job after all. She reads the Torygraph. I don't think this is unrelated to her new-found admiration for Boris.


Fair enough, me being Livid and spending copious amounts of time working out stats and reports from numerous different Countries certainly won't make me feel any more 'at one' with the World though. 

If it works for others then who am I to criticise, just asking that's all.


----------



## shep (27 May 2021)

mjr said:


> You might start asking good questions about things you do control, such as who you elect or support to govern.


Trouble is, I don't think any party would have done much better in this instance ( and we'll never know) so I'm not suddenly going to become some left wing tree hugger because we've gone through a pandemic.


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## mjr (27 May 2021)

shep said:


> Fair enough, me being Livid and spending copious amounts of time working out stats [...]


Except this is stuff I was trained for and have the tools to do, so the time is not so copious and I am still cycling lots and lobbying councils for better infrastructure too.


----------



## mjr (27 May 2021)

shep said:


> Trouble is, I don't think any party would have done much better in this instance ( and we'll never know) so I'm not suddenly going to become some left wing tree hugger because we've gone through a pandemic.


I suppose from that that you're a committed right winger. If so, I don't mind if you don't turn left, but I wish you'd at least try to elect more competent right-wingers! I suspect pretty much any other Tory PM of my lifetime would have done better than this one.


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## Ajax Bay (27 May 2021)

@shep People get their therapy in different ways - as you may have seen from this thread _et al_. I thought @mjr's graphing was a good effort. I think one could (argue and) tweak a few parameters and get a different conclusion but that's stats for you (and I'm sure he knows this) - sensitivity 'testing'. The current key question/decision with which the government, with copious advice from many quarters, is grappling is to decide whether the final relaxation of legal restrictions should happen on 21 June or be delayed. The government has previously been criticised for delaying actions.
Pleased to say, with some freedoms now restored to the UK population (on 17 May), I enjoyed a ride to a not very local pub last night and enjoyed a pint outside in the evening sunshine and, (group reduced to 6) a pint inside before a ride home with an amazing full moon just risen above the sea horizon. 'Mad Hatter' since you ask.


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## shep (27 May 2021)

mjr said:


> Except this is stuff I was trained for and have the tools to do, so the time is not so copious and I am still cycling lots and lobbying councils for better infrastructure too.


Well done you.


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## neil_merseyside (27 May 2021)

Not sure this is the thread for this but a friend just related how an Iranian they know was very pleased his Covid test was positive! 
Is this how we are getting some problems when English isn't first language? 
This bloke was a solicitor/lawyer in Iran when he legged it (before he was 'disappeared') so not stupid by any means, his English was very poor just 6 months ago but his grasp of language now is beyond me, he has to quiz an English teacher about participles and stuff.


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## lazybloke (27 May 2021)

shep said:


> Trouble is, I don't think any party would have done much better in this instance ( and we'll never know) so I'm not suddenly going to become some left wing tree hugger because we've gone through a pandemic.


I agree that mistakes were likely in the early days of the pandemic, and perhaps some of them might even be forgiveable, but I'm not so sure Boris has an excuse for being so tardy with his 2nd lockdown, or for failing to stop the spread of the Indiant variant currently.

I notice other countries have started imposing blocks on uk tourists, or strict quarantine measures . Good! International travel is a stupid idea at the mo.


----------



## Kajjal (27 May 2021)

lazybloke said:


> I agree that mistakes were likely in the early days of the pandemic, and perhaps some of them might even be forgiveable, but I'm not so sure Boris has an excuse for being so tardy with his 2nd lockdown, or for failing to stop the spread of the Indiant variant currently.
> 
> I notice other countries have started imposing blocks on uk tourists, or strict quarantine measures . Good! International travel is a stupid idea at the mo.


This is the key the level of mistakes and if they are continually repeated. The UK‘s problem seems to be an inability to take charge and promptly make the difficult decisions which are coming rapidly one after another. Vague and indecisive is costly.


----------



## lane (27 May 2021)

Hospital admissions seem to be increasing in line with cases which obviously raises the question regarding the link being broken between cases and hospitalisations and must raise questions about the roadmap.


----------



## midlife (27 May 2021)

lane said:


> Hospital admissions seem to be increasing in line with cases which obviously raises the question regarding the link being broken between cases and hospitalisations and must raise questions about the roadmap.



Some hospitals are starting to cancel operations as post op places in ITU are being squeezed again


----------



## SpokeyDokey (27 May 2021)

midlife said:


> Some hospitals are starting to cancel operations as post op places in ITU are being squeezed again



Is that in the hot-spot areas? I'm assuming they are as the national number is pretty static at mid 900's.


----------



## lane (27 May 2021)

Overall cases are up 20% 7 day average and so are hospitalisations. That is nationally - concentrated in hotspot areas - although history shows the virus does have a tendency to spread about.

Edit - hospitalization = number admitted not total in hospital


----------



## midlife (27 May 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Is that in the hot-spot areas? I'm assuming they are as the national number is pretty static at mid 900's.




This report from yesterday concerns Birmingham

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-57114877

But nearer to me the North East are taking more covid cases.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (27 May 2021)

midlife said:


> This report from yesterday concerns Birmingham
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-57114877
> 
> But nearer to me the North East are taking more covid cases.



Must be a very localised issue as there are only around 750 Covid patients in hospital in England. A fairly static number too.

No idea how many in ICU although around 115 are on mechanical ventilators, again a fairly static number.

On Sky News today they said case numbers were rising but there is no significant impact on hospitalisation numbers.

The current stat's seem to bear this out.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (27 May 2021)

lane said:


> Overall cases are up 20% 7 day average and so are hospitalisations. That is nationally - concentrated in hotspot areas - although history shows the virus does have a tendency to spread about.
> 
> Edit - hospitalization = number admitted not total in hospital



I don't see that 7 day figure as particularly significant. Presumably it is based on the 3 days a week or so back when hospitalisations dipped slightly under 100 per day for the first time in ages?

Even so the numbers are very low, more so if you look back to just last month.


----------



## lane (27 May 2021)

The point is cases are going to increase very significantly over the next few weeks. Cases will be so high that based on past experience it would have put the NHS under pressure. The hope is that this won't happen because despite the large increase in cases vaccination has broken the link between cases and hospitalisations. The fact cases and hospitalisations are increasing at the same rate has to be a cause for significant concern. This issue will no be masked due to the bank holiday.


----------



## lane (27 May 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I don't see that 7 day figure as particularly significant. Presumably it is based on the 3 days a week or so back when hospitalisations dipped slightly under 100 per day for the first time in ages?
> 
> Even so the numbers are very low, more so if you look back to just last month.



The increase in cases we have seen over three peaks have been preceded by low rates so I don't see rates being low as reassuring. The issue is direction of travel.


----------



## shep (27 May 2021)

lane said:


> The point is cases are going to increase very significantly over the next few weeks. Cases will be so high that based on past experience it would have put the NHS under pressure.


There were 60,000 new cases per day not long ago and thankfully the NHS coped so I can't see how you think it won't now that the vast majority of the country have had at least 1 jab. Just more Boris bashing if you ask me.


----------



## midlife (27 May 2021)

shep said:


> There were 60,000 new cases per day not long ago and thankfully the NHS coped so I can't see how you think it won't now that the vast majority of the country have had at least 1 jab. Just more Boris bashing if you ask me.



The NHS coped because of redeployment and running a covid treatment service mainly. For example my consultant surgical colleague had all his operating lists cancelled and ended up on an elderly care and stroke ward while the nurses and junior staff were looking after covid patients. 

The NHS is trying to run a pre-covid service plus some more to play catch up and each ITU bed occupied by a covid patient blocks this extra activity.


----------



## lane (27 May 2021)

shep said:


> There were 60,000 new cases per day not long ago and thankfully the NHS coped so I can't see how you think it won't now that the vast majority of the country have had at least 1 jab. Just more Boris bashing if you ask me.



It's reasonable to disagree with my points but the assertion it is more Boris bashing is completely incorrect and without any foundation based on what I have posted. My post is based on my analysis of daily data on the covid dashboard and my opinion of Boris is completely irrelevant. Of course I wasn't asking you.


----------



## mjr (27 May 2021)

shep said:


> There were 60,000 new cases per day not long ago and thankfully the NHS coped so I can't see how you think it won't now that the vast majority of the country have had at least 1 jab. Just more Boris bashing if you ask me.


Back in January, you mean? NHS coped as in https://www.itv.com/news/westcountr...-nearly-double-in-the-west-countrys-hospitals and many similar stories.

Thankfully, it is not certain we are going to do as badly, but we might... And anyway, cases need to be kept down else we will see more variants and eventually some will escape the vaccine.

It ain't just Boris-bashing. His cabinet really do appear to be failing to learn and farking it up again.


----------



## classic33 (27 May 2021)

midlife said:


> The NHS coped because of redeployment and running a covid treatment service mainly. For example my consultant surgical colleague had all his operating lists cancelled and ended up on an elderly care and stroke ward while the nurses and junior staff were looking after covid patients.
> 
> The NHS is trying to run a pre-covid service plus some more to play catch up and each ITU bed occupied by a covid patient blocks this extra activity.


It's not just in intensive care.
Locally, routine appointments were cancelled. When, or if, they restart there's a fair bit of catching up to be done. This is on top of all the routine appointments that will start up again once this is over.

One operation cancelled, another is simply "wait and see". Wondering if it will get worse whilst I'm waiting. 
All the while similar cases are building.

For me, there was one person who'd only be seen twice, since their first diagnosis of possible epilepsy, who had been given the worst case possible, on their second visit to the hospital, SUDEP. They'd only just moved, had to surrender their driving licence. Driving being a large part of their job beforehand. How have they been since all this started? I'd love to know, but it'll be a while before I find out.


----------



## shep (27 May 2021)

lane said:


> Of course I wasn't asking you.


I don't recall anyone asking you directly for your opinion either but as this is a public forum and anyone is allowed to respond then I have as much right to express my thoughts as you do.


----------



## lane (27 May 2021)

shep said:


> I don't recall anyone asking you directly for your opinion either but as this is a public forum and anyone is allowed to respond then I have as much right to express my thoughts as you do.



Yes but I didn't complete my post with the phrase "if you ask me". So my response was perfectly reasonable in that context. To be honest I would have thought that would be very obvious to you but clearly it wasn't .


----------



## shep (27 May 2021)

lane said:


> Yes but I didn't complete my post with the phrase "if you ask me". So my response was perfectly reasonable in that context. To be honest I would have thought that would be very obvious to you but clearly it wasn't .


Fair play I missed that bit.


----------



## cookiemonster (28 May 2021)

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-covid-dominic-cummings-pandemic-labour-media

Don't always agree with Owen Jones but he's spot on here.


----------



## Pale Rider (28 May 2021)

Lots of complaints throughout the pandemic from local authorities over not being consulted about new restrictions.

What I'd like to know is what these authorities could add where they consulted?

Meanwhile, several posters on here are moaning about government 'dithering'.

Miring proposed new measures in local authority executives and inevitably, politics, would only lead to more delay before any decisions were made.

To coin an old phrase, there's a war on.

Endless debate and gum flapping is a luxury we cannot currently afford.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 May 2021)

.


cookiemonster said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-covid-dominic-cummings-pandemic-labour-media
> 
> Don't always agree with Owen Jones but he's spot on here.



Meanwhile, Dacre has been deemed as not fit to lead Ofcom by the interview panel. 

Govt has simply refused to appoint any of the other candidates and invited Dacre to apply again, with a different interview panel. 

Our politics is being Putinised.

This is how democracy dies, not with a bang, but a whimper.


----------



## Pale Rider (28 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> .
> 
> 
> Meanwhile, Dacre has been deemed as not fit to lead Ofcom by the interview panel.
> ...



Google and facebook (possibly) don't want Dacre.

To many, that probably makes him a good candidate.

For some reason, Ofcom's interview panel have rejected him.

If you are after vested interests, there might be the place to look.


----------



## lane (28 May 2021)

Professor Hayward, a member of the new and emerging respiratory virus threats advisory group, says we have 7,000 cases of Indian variant last week. cases are doubling every week - it will take 5 or six weeks to get to 250,000 cases, which will put pressure on the NHS. He makes the point as restrictions are eased cases will double more quickly. There is a good case for caution until we have a much higher proportion of the population vaccinated.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (28 May 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Google and facebook (possibly) don't want Dacre.
> 
> To many, that probably makes him a good candidate.
> 
> ...



Dacre was the editor of a highly partisan newspaper for decades. 

Attempting to appoint him as a regulator is a naked attempt to impose political interference in regulation. 

To continue to do so after his rejection in the process is an abuse of process. 

That you see nothing wrong with this is a great exemplification of how our democracy is in peril.


----------



## shep (28 May 2021)

lane said:


> Professor Hayward, a member of the new and emerging respiratory virus threats advisory group, says we have 7,000 cases of Indian variant last week. cases are doubling every week - it will take 5 or six weeks to get to 250,000 cases, which will put pressure on the NHS. He makes the point as restrictions are eased cases will double more quickly. There is a good case for caution until we have a much higher proportion of the population vaccinated.


Does the Indian variant increase hospitalisation?


----------



## lane (28 May 2021)

shep said:


> Does the Indian variant increase hospitalisation?



I don't think there is any evidence of that. I assume he is making his calculations based on % of hospitalisations we have seen this far through the pandemic.


----------



## Pale Rider (28 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Dacre was the editor of a highly partisan newspaper for decades.
> 
> Attempting to appoint him as a regulator is a naked attempt to impose political interference in regulation.
> 
> ...



Were there any other candidates?

If so, why not appoint one of those?

If all were unsuitable, readvertising the position and starting again is standard practice.

Sometimes that's on a previous applicants need not reapply basis, but it doesn't have to be.

What are the qualifications for the job?

I doubt there are many communications regulation specialists, so it's probably one those roles where senior management experience in other fields is deemed to be transferable.

Dacre has a stellar record in media, particularly new media, so his field might be deemed to have at least some relevance to the job.

It's just as likely the members of the of the panel are scared Dacre might upset their cosy public service culture of keep your head down and look forward to the pension.

Some of his antics at the Mail are the stuff of legend.

He could probably spark an industrial tribunal every day of the week and twice on Sunday in a less, shall we say, robust environment than a newsroom.


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## roubaixtuesday (28 May 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> If so, why not appoint one of those?



That would be because there was no intention to appoint anyone else.


----------



## Rusty Nails (28 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> That would be because there was no intention to appoint anyone else.


Exactly.

Anyone with any real experience of recruitment interviewing will know that often there is a target recruit and other people are only added to the process to give it a veneer of fairness.


----------



## kingrollo (28 May 2021)

shep said:


> There were 60,000 new cases per day not long ago and thankfully the NHS coped so I can't see how you think it won't now that the vast majority of the country have had at least 1 jab. Just more Boris bashing if you ask me.



Full lockdown and we coped. 

The point is we wanted / hoped to avoid lockdown. The hospital admissions always lags more than you expect .

From memory cases started to rise in sept - it was late Nov when it hit critical on admissions ( approx)


----------



## kingrollo (28 May 2021)

shep said:


> Does the Indian variant increase hospitalisation?



Best case figures

75% of UK population vaccinated

90% effective rate.

20% of infections requiring hospital treatment

UK population 62 million.

We could easily have 3rd wave.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (28 May 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Best case figures
> 
> 75% of UK population vaccinated
> 
> ...



Where have you got those figures from please?


----------



## Rocky (28 May 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Where have you got those figures from please?


I think they are back of an envelope calculations. I’d agree with all of them apart from the 20% figure for hospital treatment. That seems a bit high. I’d also say it was probably a middling to worse case, rather than a best case.


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## lane (28 May 2021)

14 day lag from test positive to hospitalisation. So current 7 day average hospitalised is 860 and tested positive 14 days ago (7 day average from 14 to 7th May) is 13,898. 860 divided by 13,898 is roughly 6%. So it looks like 6% of tested positive number now end up in hospital. Presumably lower than previously due to vaccinations which means more younger people as a % test positive but are less likely to be hospitalised. It would have been higher previously and I think may well have been around 20%. Someone in the 50-64 year age group is 4 times more likely to be hospitalised than someone in the 30-39 year age group and by 75-84 age group this is 6.5 times more likely. So it is easy to see that 6% hospitalisation now could have easily have been 20% pre-vaccination days.

What I don't understand is given the lag re hospitalisations why they are increasing by 25% 7 day average currently when 14 days ago cases were not increasing by 25% but were more or less stable. It makes me wonder if this is an impact of the Indian variant becoming more prevalent and it has a different characteristic which is putting more people in hospital for some reason - possibly more likely to put younger un-vaccinated in hospital than previous versions such as the Kent variant.

Given hospitalisations seem to now be increasing FASTER than cases were increasing 14 days ago it looks very uncertain that the link between infections and hospitalisations has yet been broken. Given exponential increase in cases is now certain I don't think the picture looks very promising at all.

Previous post projected 250,000 cases in 6 weeks time, although in reality likely to be higher due to unlocking, @6% hospitalisations would put 15,000 in hospital which is a manageable but concerning figure - but in reality likely to be higher and could easily be double which will put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.

Fundamentally we are following a road map that was not designed to work in the current changed circumstances with the Indian variant.


----------



## Craig the cyclist (28 May 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Where have you got those figures from please?



He made them up


----------



## lane (28 May 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> He made them up



I am sure @kingrollo can speak for themselves but I think you will find that the population of the country quoted is as reasonable approximation as we can get and the 90% effective rate is in line with many studies after a second dose.


----------



## Ajax Bay (28 May 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Best case figures
> 75% of UK population vaccinated
> 90% effective rate.
> 20% of infections requiring hospital treatment
> ...





Rocky said:


> I think they are back of an envelope calculations. I'd agree with them all apart from the 20% figure for hospital treatment. That seems a bit high. I’d also say it was probably a middling to worse case, rather than a best case.


Yes. All @kingrollo other figures are best case, except that one, and the UK population (67M) - maybe he was using over 6s. And UK is not near 75% with second dose (or even first), maybe by 21 Jun for 75% first dose (49M).
How about this:
Central estimate figures
By 4 June: 40% of UK population vaccinated (2 doses) plus another 20% with first dose only (projected from NHS figures*)
By 30 June: 50% of UK population vaccinated (2 doses) plus another 25% with first dose only (projected from NHS figures*)
74% effective rate (14 days after second dose, Pfizer/AZ average), 33% after first dose (gov.uk #)
6% (medium uncertainty - so 'made up') of infections requiring hospital treatment (Overall (from the start) it's been about 10% of those testing positive have been admitted to hospital (NHS figures*). There is evidence (aiui) that even those vaccinated infected are much less likely to need hospital. And all the unvaccinated are under 30 and the admission rate is very low for that third of the population.)
UK population *67* million. (ONS)
Decision on 'no earlier than' 21 Jun date will be made on data available on 7 Jun latest, to inform the 4 tests, and the critical one is hospitalisation trend.
We are absolutely certain to have a 3rd wave - all the models have predicted one (even without a variant with increased transmissibility (some uncertainty over that)) and the timing has also been suggested (central estimate) as peak end July (NB for summer hols, peeps).
I think estimating peak cases is problematic. Current estimate of doubling time is 12 days (my estimate from NHS figures*). How much of the increase (which was expected after the 17 May relaxation date) is down to the increased Reff and how much due to the increasing proportion of cases being the B.1.617.2 variant means an increased R0?
(In UK) There is a dog fight on between increased spread through reduced NPIs and VoC effect, and the increasing percentage vaccinated.
Cross post with @lane and others.
* NHS figures from: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases and its sibling pages
# https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-b-1-617-2-variant-after-2-doses


----------



## Eric Olthwaite (28 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> We are absolutely certain to have a 3rd wave



OK. But there us a huge difference between

a) a significant 3rd wave of infections resulting in a small increase in serious illness and deaths; and
b) a significant 3rd wave of infections resulting in a big increase in serious illness and deaths

Many of the "experts" admit they have no way of predicting the relative likelihood of (a) and (b), but suggest it's best to plan for (b) just in case,

But that's not reality, or rational. We don't live our lives governed by the worst case scenario without some judgement about how likely that is.


----------



## lane (28 May 2021)

@Ajax Bay any idea why hospitalisations are up 25% on 7 day average when cases 7 to 14 days ago were broadly stable? See my post above. This is puzzling and concerning me.


----------



## Ajax Bay (28 May 2021)

Eric Olthwaite said:


> OK. But there us a huge difference between:
> a) a significant 3rd wave of infections resulting in a small increase in serious illness and deaths; and
> b) a significant 3rd wave of infections resulting in a big increase in serious illness and deaths
> Many of the "experts" admit they have no way of predicting the relative likelihood of (a) and (b), but suggest it's best to plan for (b) just in case, But that's not reality, or rational. We don't live our lives governed by the worst case scenario without some judgement about how likely that is.


Quite right, Eric, and I'm a 'beer glass half full' (till it's not) person, but if cases do double every 12 days, then we'll be on about 15,000 cases a day by 21 Jun. If the percentage needing hospital is 6% then that reads as 900 a day admissions 10 days later. That's the same as mid October and we saw how that turned out.
What changes will be made in UK in the next weeks to (at best) increase the doubling time?
Difference (from October)! By 21 Jun 75% vaccinated population will have significant protection from serious infection and also from transmission Edit: and we are moving into the summer so might expect a 10% benefit from that: these are increasingly depressing the effective R number. However, dealing with B.1.617.2 variant (half of infections?) which is (low certainty) more infectious that B.1.1.7 which was 50% more infectious than the wild variant (in October) - increases the R number.
Pretty sure that "experts" would say there was High Certainty of a "significant 3rd wave of infections resulting in a small increase in serious illness and deaths". Your (b) less certainty (and my prediction is 'not'). So contingency planning, which may include 'following the data' on 10 Jun.
ETA: "Sir Tim Gowers, University of Cambridge (you'll recall referred to by Mr Cummings describing the epiphany in early March 2020 within No 10) has observed that the downside of being “a bit more cautious” [ie choosing a later date for Phase 4) was a lot smaller than the downside of getting it wrong (letting cases exponentially increase and hope that that doesn't convert into too much serious illness and/or long COVID. (Source: Aol quoting Guardian)


----------



## Ajax Bay (28 May 2021)

lane said:


> @Ajax Bay any idea why hospitalisations are up 25% on 7 day average when cases 7 to 14 days ago were broadly stable? See my post above. This is puzzling and concerning me.


Quick scan suggestion.
7-day average cases started clearly trending up from about 14 May (date of specimen) up by about 10%.
Hospital admissions fairly flat (average about 110 per day 1-17 May). These are up 10% (as at 25 May) - expected mean lag is 9 days (from January curve/data).
I see no particular anomalies which might flag up concern: I have not tried to derive your figures.
Bear in mind that numbers in 'COVID beds' might be affected by a younger cohort in hospital and perhaps a longer stay in hospital (and much higher percentage survive, mercifully). Expected mean lag between admission peak and peak bed occupancy is 10 days (from January curve/data).
HTH


----------



## kingrollo (31 May 2021)

It's looking like Boris will have to disappoint his businessmen friends and postopone the easing of restrictions on June 21......


----------



## PK99 (31 May 2021)

lane said:


> Fundamentally we are following a road map that was not designed to work in the current changed circumstances with the Indian variant.



Are we?


*Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:*


the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
*our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern*

The roadmap has in it a test specific tp the point you make.


----------



## kingrollo (31 May 2021)

PK99 said:


> Are we?
> 
> 
> *Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:*
> ...



That just might drop off the radar ....


----------



## lane (31 May 2021)

PK99 said:


> Are we?
> 
> 
> *Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:*
> ...



If you think that Johnson will take notice of the caveats then your comment makes sense. However given that was the situation when the last lockdown was eased on the 17th I can't say I am convinced that is the case, or indeed given everything he has done to date. As scientists said today the spread of the variant across the country is entirely predictable.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 May 2021)

PK99 said:


> The roadmap has in it a test specific tp the point you make.



A test many scientists argued already failed at the last relaxation, certainly failed now and very unlikely to pass for 21st, alas.

Govt response to this is to say there's no reason to believe we're not on course for 21st, to leak some positive aspects of research and hold back schools data whilst schools are primary cause for concern on transmission right now. 

It's not redolent of following the data, unfortunately.


----------



## kingrollo (31 May 2021)

lane said:


> If you think that Johnson will take notice of the caveats then your comment makes sense. However given that was the situation when the last lockdown was eased on the 17th I can't say I am convinced that is the case, or indeed given everything he has done to date. As scientists said today the spread of the variant across the country is entirely predictable.



Cue the 'captain hindsight' quote when the deaths start to mount.


----------



## kingrollo (31 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> A test many scientists argued already failed at the last relaxation, certainly failed now and very unlikely to pass for 21st, alas.
> 
> Govt response to this is to say there's no reason to believe we're not on course for 21st, to leak some positive aspects of research and hold back schools data whilst schools are primary cause for concern on transmission right now.
> 
> It's not redolent of following the data, unfortunately.



It will go ahead on Jun 21 - with a token gesture such as still wearing masks in shops.


----------



## Ajax Bay (31 May 2021)

kingrollo said:


> It's looking like Boris will have to disappoint his businessmen friends and postopone the easing of restrictions on June 21......





PK99 said:


> Are we? [ following a road map that was not designed to work in the current changed circumstance]
> Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:
> 
> the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
> ...





roubaixtuesday said:


> A test many scientists argued already failed at the last relaxation, certainly failed now and very unlikely to pass for 21st, alas.
> It's not redolent of following the data, unfortunately.


@kingrollo I reckon, when considering the cohorts who'd be disappointed, the electorate will trump the 'as you put it' businessman friends, hands (votes) down, and rightly so.
@PK99 has shared the '4 tests'. On 7 May, when the 17 May relaxation was confirmed, all 4 of those tests were 'passed' in my view. Please let us know which one you think "many scientists" were right to say wasn't passed? Of course this may turn on one's interpretation of "fundamentally", which is why the government used that adverb.
On 14 Jun, when the final decision will be shared to either go ahead on 21st with the final relaxation OR to set a new date (no earlier than), I reckon those 4 tests will again be met/passed, informed by papers going to and considered by SAGE. Of course there is a range of wise, valid opinions and these get aired on the media, perhaps more than those which are broadly content with the developing situation.
Things (data) may change in a fortnight, but, looking at it now:

the *vaccine deployment programme* will have progressed with excellent success. All those over 50 (plus CEV, H&SCW, UHC) in JCVI Gps 1-9 (32M) will have received their 2nd jab (jag if they're in Scotland). By 14 Jun, 10M will have had a first jab and await their second. *Success!*
the evidence shows *vaccines are sufficiently **effective* in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated including against those infected with the Variant δ VoC. Note very few in (eg the 3 Bs) hospitals with serious disease from the Variant δ VoC are fully vacinated (about the percentage one would expect on RCT efficacy trial results).
Although the infection rate has increased since early May and seems set to increase further (see graph below), the figures show that there is a *low risk of a surge in hospitalisations* which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS. The current numbers in hospital are the lowest this year https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare A few hospitals serving the towns where the new VoC has spread are under more than expected strain (to the prejudice of all the other healthcare for other ailments to which they need to attend). Hospitalisations will rise bit, lagging the increase in cases, but the vaccination programme has decoupled the multiplyer linkage.
The risks from current Variants of Concern, including the 'new' one (Variant δ) are not *fundamentally* changed.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Please let us know which one you think "many scientists" were right to say wasn't passed?



Variants


----------



## roubaixtuesday (31 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The risks from current Variants of Concern, including the 'new' one are not *fundamentally* changed.



@Ajax Bay variant cases are currently doubling close to weekly, and total cases and hospitalizations as a result rising about 30% week on week.

Clearly that's fundamentally changed, and SAGE scientists including Edmunds have said so.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (31 May 2021)

Once this government has set a course, it only changes course when the disaster is already well underway. It started with not going into lockdown, not going into lockdown, not going into lockdown, oh, crikey, we better go into lockdown. Then Christmas is on, Christmas is on, Christmas is on, oh, crikey, we better go back into lockdown. 

I believe the government has set a course for a 21 June unlockdown. ''Data not dates'' was something they borrowed from Sturgeon without understanding what it meant and fixed on Midsummer's day for it, which, of course, is in dates not data territory. My guess is that the date now has such overwhelming significance that, even if the data looks difficult, 21/6 is what it will be. Our only hope of avoiding a further mess is that the India variant isn't as good at spreading and escaping the vaccine as feared, and that the link between infection and hospitalisation has been significantly weakened.


----------



## dodgy (31 May 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Variants


----------



## dodgy (31 May 2021)

Didn't the gubment used to show breakdown by age of infections/deaths? I wouldn't be surprised if the current uptick in infections are in the 25 and under bracket, judging by watching them the last few weeks. Hopefully none of them go on to develop life changing CFS/Long covid type complications.


----------



## kingrollo (31 May 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Memes are frowned upon in NACA, and at the very least are supposed to have some context.
> 
> Perhaps you'd care to explain what relevance a sour and nasty quote from some Old Labour git who has been dead for more than 60 years has to do with the Coronavirus outbreak.
> 
> ...



Wot - you enjoyed the miners strike ?

(Ah just realised who the poster is - figures).


----------



## kingrollo (31 May 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> @kingrollo I reckon, when considering the cohorts who'd be disappointed, the electorate will trump the 'as you put it' businessman friends, hands (votes) down, and rightly so.
> @PK99 has shared the '4 tests'. On 7 May, when the 17 May relaxation was confirmed, all 4 of those tests were 'passed' in my view. Please let us know which one you think "many scientists" were right to say wasn't passed? Of course this may turn on one's interpretation of "fundamentally", which is why the government used that adverb.
> On 14 Jun, when the final decision will be shared to either go ahead on 21st with the final relaxation OR to set a new date (no earlier than), I reckon those 4 tests will again be met/passed, informed by papers going to and considered by SAGE. Of course there is a range of wise, valid opinions and these get aired on the media, perhaps more than those which are broadly content with the developing situation.
> Things (data) may change in a fortnight, but, looking at it now:
> ...



Yes but the businessmen, who would be disappointed by a no go on June 21 are those that weild power and would cause Johnson most anxiety.

The others he can fob off with a few union jack's, and a rallying cry to protect our borders from 40 migrants crossing the channel.

btw - were you re elected as councillor ? 🙂


----------



## Kajjal (31 May 2021)

The test is whether the vaccine will take the place of lockdowns in stopping the virus spreading consistently in any significant amount.


----------



## Ajax Bay (31 May 2021)

dodgy said:


> Didn't the gubment used to show breakdown by age of infections/deaths? I wouldn't be surprised if the current uptick in infections are in the 25 and under bracket, judging by watching them the last few weeks. Hopefully none of them go on to develop life changing CFS/Long covid type complications.


This one I made earlier :


----------



## kingrollo (31 May 2021)

Kajjal said:


> The test is whether the vaccine will take the place of lockdowns in stopping the virus spreading consistently in any significant amount.



I think it's hospitalisations. If it spreads but isn't making people seriously ill we will settle for that


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (31 May 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I think it's hospitalisations. If it spreads but isn't making people seriously ill we will settle for that


I agree. It's the threat of over-run hospitals alone that has forced changes of lockdown policy thus far.


----------



## Ajax Bay (31 May 2021)

@Pale Rider Leave the quick (ex-miners) and the dead for a moment, are you concerned that the risks from current Variants of Concern have already *fundamentally* changed, or can be reasonably predicted so to do? These risks are (I think):
a) an exponential rise in cases, insufficiently checked by control measures (see the graph I attached on my long post)
b) a consequent increase in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS (might we reasonably rely on the assumption that double vaccination of the 98% most vulnerable to serious illness will protect them?)
c) vaccine evasion significantly greater than for Variant δ VoC (evidence that evasion is higher in those who've only had one dose (medium certainty))
d) a larger pool of infected which increases the risk of a new variant emerging (Note that, compared to the continent (say), the number in UK currently infected (about 60,000 - ONS central estimate) is negligible.)
e) a new VoC emerging which is either more transmissible, or more lethal, or one against which current vaccines are less effective. (None of the current Vui seem likely candidates in the short term.)


kingrollo said:


> btw - were you re-elected as councillor?


back to you too, Rolo. The hustings: what are they like?


----------



## Ajax Bay (1 Jun 2021)

1 Jun: Zero deaths reported. Hospital occupancy continuing to drop:




Cases slowly rising (orange daily reported, yellow 7-day average):


----------



## midlife (1 Jun 2021)

I'm sure I read somewhere that hospital admissions are up 20 odd percent in the current Delta variant hot spots?


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## Buck (1 Jun 2021)

midlife said:


> I'm sure I read somewhere that hospital admissions are up 20 odd percent in the current Delta variant hot spots?



Yes, that’s what was reported last week.

Sky News 28 May:-
The latest data on the government dashboard shows COVID cases and hospital admissions over the last seven days are up 20% from the previous week. Deaths are up 14%.


Edit to add link to figures

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital


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## Buck (1 Jun 2021)

Data by day. Thankfully smaller numbers than earlier in the pandemic so a 20% increase is smaller in real numbers than we might fear.


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## Ajax Bay (1 Jun 2021)

midlife said:


> I'm sure I read somewhere that hospital admissions are up 20 odd percent in the current Delta variant hot spots?


NHSE have stopped gathering data wef 4 Apr (!) but no doubt it's there elsewhere.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...ergency-care-daily-situation-reports-2020-21/


Buck said:


> figures https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital


I can see "+20%" in those admission figures (7-day average 15 May to 22 May (one week) and roughly 20% increase in cases over same 7 days period.
However Chris Hopson (Head NHS Providers) comments: "In hotspot areas, infection rates to hospitalisation rate is much lower than in previous waves." He opines: "The vaccines have not only broken the link between community infections and hospitalisations but also in terms of the level of harm that comes with catching an infection" and goes on ". . . patients tend to be younger and . . . the demand for critical care beds is significantly lower than it was in previous waves."


----------



## SpokeyDokey (1 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> NHSE have stopped gathering data wef 4 Apr (!) but no doubt it's there elsewhere.
> https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...ergency-care-daily-situation-reports-2020-21/
> 
> I can see "+20%" in those admission figures (7-day average 15 May to 22 May (one week) and roughly 20% increase in cases over same 7 days period.
> However Chris Hopson (Head NHS Providers) comments: "In hotspot areas, infection rates to hospitalisation rate is much lower than in previous waves." He opines: "The vaccines have not only broken the link between community infections and hospitalisations but also in terms of the level of harm that comes with catching an infection" and goes on ". . . patients tend to be younger and . . . the demand for critical care beds is significantly lower than it was in previous waves."



CH also said that the number of patients with Covid in hospital having had two jabs was very, very low.

Encouraging news.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Cases slowly rising



Perhaps a better description might be "cases rising from a low base with a doubling time of about two weeks"

A doubling time of two weeks is not "slow" IMO.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (1 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> 1 Jun: Zero deaths reported. Hospital occupancy continuing to drop:
> View attachment 591718
> 
> Cases slowly rising (orange daily reported, yellow 7-day average):
> View attachment 591719


Curiously, the Guardian is reporting a slight rise in hospital admissions. National as in England or national as in UK?


*The widespread rise in Covid-19 cases has led to a small rise in hospital admissions* on a national level, according to Guardian analysis of NHS data.


----------



## shep (1 Jun 2021)

No deaths at all today apparently.


----------



## Ajax Bay (1 Jun 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Curiously, the Guardian is reporting a slight rise in hospital admissions. National as in England or national as in UK?
> *The widespread rise in Covid-19 cases has led to a small rise in hospital admissions* on a national level, according to Guardian analysis of NHS data.


Of course the Guardian is factually correct: as I said "+20% in admission figures (7-day average 15 May to 22 May (one week) and roughly 20% increase in cases over same 7 days period." UK figures drawn directly from the dashboard. Not quite sure what is 'curious'.


----------



## Ajax Bay (1 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Perhaps a better description might be "cases rising from a low base with a doubling time of about two weeks"
> A doubling time of two weeks is not "slow" IMO.


May I enquire on what data you are drawing to get your estimate? The steepest part of the non-logarithmic graph of daily cases I shared (drawn from NHS/gov.uk dashboard data) puts the doubling period at 20 days on 28 May. Is this "about two weeks"?
To compare, the doubling period from 16 Sep was 10 days. I have tried to find a UK doubling period less than that but can't find it.
Your "from a low base" point is germane to judging whether, in 10 days, the third test is passed or not.
The bank holiday long w/e means the data will not as reliable as normal for another 6 days. English and Welsh half term (including the effect from reduced testing of 7M pupils) will further muddy the figures. SPI-M_O will have their work cut out.


----------



## lane (1 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> @Ajax Bay variant cases are currently doubling close to weekly, and total cases and hospitalizations as a result rising about 30% week on week.
> 
> Clearly that's fundamentally changed, and SAGE scientists including Edmunds have said so.



Hospital admissions this week tripple previous week where I live.


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## Ajax Bay (1 Jun 2021)

80% of the new cases in South Hams (area in Devon) LTLA are the new δ variant.
12 cases of the 15 in a population of about 90,000.
I fear the percentage increase in deaths UK-wide tomorrow will be infinite (compared to today).
Roughly 0.7% of the beds in the NHS are currently occupied by patients who have tested positive for COVID-19 in the last 28 days.


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## Milzy (1 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> 80% of the new cases in South Hams (area in Devon) LTLA are the new δ variant.
> 12 cases of the 15 in a population of about 90,000.
> I fear the percentage increase in deaths UK-wide tomorrow will be infinite (compared to today).
> Roughly 0.7% of the beds in the NHS are currently occupied by patients who have tested positive for COVID-19 in the last 28 days.


This is nothing no deaths today. However Boris getting married earlier leads me to believe the 21st June date will be put back by a month or two.


----------



## midlife (1 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> 80% of the new cases in South Hams (area in Devon) LTLA are the new δ variant.
> 12 cases of the 15 in a population of about 90,000.
> I fear the percentage increase in deaths UK-wide tomorrow will be infinite (compared to today).
> Roughly 0.7% of the beds in the NHS are currently occupied by patients who have tested positive for COVID-19 in the last 28 days.



Ohhh, how did you get the delta sign in the post?


----------



## Ajax Bay (1 Jun 2021)

OT!!: I suspect the (not) shotgun marriage (was the date brought forward) was 'driven' by needing a bona fide 'wife' in place for the G7 summit leaders' spouses hosting.
δ
α


----------



## roubaixtuesday (1 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> May I enquire on what data you are drawing to get your estimate?



Maths prof

Haven't run the numbers myself. 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1399744418534592512


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## Ajax Bay (1 Jun 2021)

Right: Professor Johnson shows doubling in 14 days . . . . in England. Add in the other parts of UK and you get the estimate I shared.
I guess you could have showed 5 day doubling in Bolton earlier in May, if one had chosen that dataset. Let's screw down by effective (I wish) T&T and any adult first and all over 50s second vaccination surge, as well as diligent adherence to NPIs.
Area  Cases Rate per 100,000

Blackburn with Darwen623416.2Bolton1,111386.4Rossendale226316.2Hyndburn132162.9Bedford282162.7Renfrewshire260145.2East Renfrewshire132138.2Glasgow City837132.2Ribble Valley79129.7Kirklees523118.9Burnley102114.7Preston161112.5


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## midlife (1 Jun 2021)

Is it me, or does that show a real failure of test and trace?


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## Ajax Bay (1 Jun 2021)

You'd hope that a complete list of arrivals from India for the key two weeks running up to 23 April, with home addresses where they were self-quarantining  would be shared with local authorities. But there was a cock-up for 10 days in May, I think (sharing of test results - IT issue). Apart from the whole T&T effort being generally judged only partially workable/effective.


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## lane (2 Jun 2021)

The real failure was not keeping the Indian variant out of the country for a while longer or at least massively reducing its chance to enter the country so it arrived in n much smaller numbers. Although I personally don't see the big issue with delaying the dale a few weeks beyond the 21st if need be. Shame the 21st has become such a big issue.


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## Ajax Bay (2 Jun 2021)

Setting 'no earlier than' dates, clearly caveatting those with saying that decisions will be driven by the data, specifying the tests the data would inform, and spacing the phases 5 weeks apart so the/any effect of changes have time to show up in the data was a reasonable approach. Some may not see 21 Jun as a 'big issue' but business and general life needs an indication of dates for forward planning.
Edit: Here's a plot of (UK) cases (blue) and admissions (orange, multiplied by 10: it's the correlation I'm after), hospitalised (grey).





Cases bottomed out at around 2000 on about 30 Apr (but essentially 'flat' for about 20 days 20 Apr - 9 May).
Admissions normally lag 'cases' by maybe 9 days. But it's been 'flat' from 27 Apr - 23 May; rising slightly since then, but matched by greater discharges from hospital COVID beds.


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## Milzy (2 Jun 2021)

midlife said:


> Is it me, or does that show a real failure of test and trace?


No it only shows ethnic & poor areas on the rise.


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## lane (2 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Setting 'no earlier than' dates, clearly caveatting those with saying that decisions will be driven by the data, specifying the tests the data would inform, and spacing the phases 5 weeks apart so the/any effect of changes have time to show up in the data was a reasonable approach. Some may not see 21 Jun as a 'big issue' but business and general life needs an indication of dates for forward planning.
> Edit: Here's a plot of UK) cases (blue) and admissions (orange, multiplied by 10: it's the correlation I'm after), hospitalised (grey).
> View attachment 591849
> 
> ...



When it became named "freedom day" it then carried significant political weight it is hard to row back from - especially for someone like Boris.

I have "general life" myself and quite a lot planned over the next few months but it can all be managed within the existing level of restrictions. You probably have a point about business forward planning.


----------



## Wobblers (2 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Quite right, Eric, and I'm a 'beer glass half full' (till it's not) person, but if cases do double every 12 days, then we'll be on about 15,000 cases a day by 21 Jun. If the percentage needing hospital is 6% then that reads as 900 a day admissions 10 days later. That's the same as mid October and we saw how that turned out.
> What changes will be made in UK in the next weeks to (at best) increase the doubling time?
> Difference (from October)! By 21 Jun 75% vaccinated population will have significant protection from serious infection and also from transmission Edit: and we are moving into the summer so might expect a 10% benefit from that: these are increasingly depressing the effective R number. However, dealing with B.1.617.2 variant (half of infections?) which is (low certainty) more infectious that B.1.1.7 which was 50% more infectious than the wild variant (in October) - increases the R number.
> Pretty sure that "experts" would say there was High Certainty of a "significant 3rd wave of infections resulting in a small increase in serious illness and deaths". Your (b) less certainty (and my prediction is 'not'). So contingency planning, which may include 'following the data' on 10 Jun.
> ETA: "Sir Tim Gowers, University of Cambridge (you'll recall referred to by Mr Cummings describing the epiphany in early March 2020 within No 10) has observed that the downside of being “a bit more cautious” [ie choosing a later date for Phase 4) was a lot smaller than the downside of getting it wrong (letting cases exponentially increase and hope that that doesn't convert into too much serious illness and/or long COVID. (Source: Aol quoting Guardian)



B1.617.2 now accounts for more than 80% of UK infections. It's clearly outcompeting B.1.1.7 - that supports the data that it's 50% more transmittable. That puts its R0 at 6 - or higher. Herd immunity for B1.617.2 requires over 85% of the population to be vaccinated, meaning children will need to be vaccinated as well. There is no data to support your idea of a summertime 10% decrease in R: Brazil's location on the equator did _not_ prevent it experiencing two very large waves.

Furthermore, a single vaccine does confers far less protection against B1.617.2: about 33% compared to over 80% for other variants. With less than 50% of all adults currently fully vaccinated close to half the population will still be vulnerable even by 21st June.

Unfortunately, we are primed for a substantial third wave of this variant. This is reflected in the most recent data, which shows that growth in the number of CV19 cases has propagated from the original hotspots in Glasgow, Bolton and W. London. With the exception of the extreme SW and south and central Wales, all regions are now showing growth in numbers. We are in the third wave, and the restrictions in place are not preventing exponential growth. Further relaxation of restrictions will merely serve to make things worse.


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## Wobblers (2 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> No it only shows ethnic & poor areas on the rise.



No. It does not. All regions in the UK with the exceptions of the SW, south and mid Wales are experiencing growth in cases. There is no correlation with ethnicity or poverty.


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## Milzy (3 Jun 2021)

McWobble said:


> No. It does not. All regions in the UK with the exceptions of the SW, south and mid Wales are experiencing growth in cases. There is no correlation with ethnicity or poverty.


So you’re saying the vaccine isn’t working then? 
Cases are growing the most in local Muslim areas & that is a fact.


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## vickster (3 Jun 2021)

The vaccine has never been claimed to stop transmission? Not sure what your point is? Plenty of people aren’t yet (fully) vaccinated regardless of their ethnicity (such as the majority under 30).
Why do you think certain areas have higher levels of cases than others?


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## Milzy (3 Jun 2021)

The vaccine stops hospitalisation. Obviously the more testing you do the more cases you’ll have.
It has already been reported on the news that areas like Bradford, Dewsbury Bolton, London, Leicester, Birmingham have all had increases. Just a coincidence there are all the more concentrated ethnic areas? I’m not having a go at any people, they can live the way they like for all I care.
When the restrictions have been lifted on the 21st we will see a better picture.


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## Ajax Bay (3 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> The vaccine stops hospitalisation [with COVID-19].


I'm afraid this is not true. That's what each vaccine's % efficacy informs. Unless a vaccine is 100% effective against the vaccinated individual developing serious illness. Which none of them are.
This summer, of those that tragically die and COVID-19 is noted on their death certificate, the majority will have been vaccinated.
The efficacy of even a double dose of vaccine merely moderates the odds ratio of an individual who being old or infirm, has a 'built-in' (statistical) increased risk of serious illness and _in extremis_ death.
compared with:
A young and otherwise healthy person who is not vaccinated (presumably for medical reasons or by choice), has a 'built-in' (statistical) much lower risk of serious illness let alone death.


----------



## Julia9054 (3 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> Plenty of people aren’t yet (fully) vaccinated regardless of their ethnicity (such as the majority under 30).


Plenty of over 50s are not yet fully vaccinated - myself included


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## vickster (3 Jun 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> Plenty of over 50s are not yet fully vaccinated - myself included


Indeed, that was my point (although I think the over 50s I know are)


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## Milzy (3 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I'm afraid this is not true. That's what each vaccine's % efficacy informs. Unless a vaccine is 100% effective against the vaccinated individual developing serious illness. Which none of them are.
> This summer, of those that tragically die and COVID-19 is noted on their death certificate, the majority will have been vaccinated.
> The efficacy of even a double dose of vaccine merely moderates the odds ratio of an individual who being old or infirm, has a 'built-in' (statistical) increased risk of serious illness and _in extremis_ death.
> compared with:
> A young and otherwise healthy person who is not vaccinated (presumably for medical reasons or by choice), has a 'built-in' (statistical) much lower risk of serious illness let alone death.


You’re technically correct. I should have said reduces not stopped. Careless language I apologise. A good reminder they’re not 100% by you though.


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## DCLane (3 Jun 2021)

@Ajax Bay and that's why I'm being careful for a while yet.

I've had the second vaccination, am no longer classed as 'vulnerable', but SWMBO has had enough patients die of this and I've been to five friends' funerals in the last year due to Covid for me to know not to take stupid risks.


----------



## Ajax Bay (3 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Maths prof
> Haven't run the numbers myself.
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1399744418534592512



Copied and reposted the graph (his twit 1 Jun)





Two days on (data cut-off 29 May, before BHw/e, orange line = 5 day average), you can see the gradient has turned negative (but see note below).




https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
Data refresh in a few days will allow affects of the BHw/e to be minimised further. SAGE and then Cabinet will have data on which to base dates. Assume concurrent activity while focus shifts to Carbis Bay.


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## Milzy (3 Jun 2021)

Hmmm on those data graphs I don’t think it’s wise lifting restrictions on the 21st. Imagine the football stadiums & concerts full then going out night clubbing. The Torie plan seems to be finding a happy medium between deaths & economy as it always has been from the start. Of course many people sit fine with that.


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## DCLane (3 Jun 2021)

@Milzy - I'm in two minds with lifting restrictions. The 'sensible' me sees the rise in cases locally and nationally with the end result being June 21st appears daft. The 'parent' me wants them to be lifted as both son no.1 and no. 2 have possible internships relying on them being lifted.


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## lane (3 Jun 2021)

Per BBC News report "They say that there may also be a higher risk of hospitalisation linked to the Delta variant."

If so that may not bode well for breaking the link between cases and hospital admissions and pressure on NHS. Even more reason to delay the 21st.


----------



## Ajax Bay (3 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> Hmmm on those data graphs I don’t think it’s wise lifting restrictions on the 21st. Imagine the football stadiums & concerts full then going out night clubbing. The Torie plan seems to be finding a happy medium between deaths & economy as it always has been from the start. Of course many people sit fine with that.


These are graphs of daily cases. Why don't you think it's wise? Case rate (UK) is down in the 40s per 100,000 and its current increase is slow, doubling in about three weeks. Hospitalisation admission rate factor (from cases) reduced from January, presumably because of vaccination of the more vulnerable cohorts. But emerging trends (weak data from PHE) suggesting the δ variant may increase that factor: this should be clearer in a week and can be factored into the estimates.
15 Jan: Cases 40k, nine days later Admissions 3200 (8%)
30 Jan: Cases 20k, nine days later Admissions 1900 (9%)
Latest (that data allow): Cases 2100, nine days later Admissions 121 (6%)
(all 7-day averages of daily figures)
There will be a third wave. The issue is the whether the estimated peak of hospitalisations is not acceptable, balanced against the harms the current restrictions cause.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> its current increase is slow, doubling in about three weeks.








It's about two weeks.

I'd describe that as "fast" personally. 

And further opening up would be expected to speed that considerably.


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## Ajax Bay (3 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> It's [the daily case rate is doubling in] about two weeks. I'd describe that as "fast" personally.


As I pointed out, the 'even larger' graph you share again is for daily cases in England.
The full sentence from which you quoted said "Case rate (UK) is down in the 40s per 100,000 and its current increase is slow, doubling in about three weeks." Given that there's going to be a third wave cases are 'bound' to go up (but low hospitalisations).
In response to your last "it's doubling in a fortnight and here's the maths prof saying so" I said:


Ajax Bay said:


> Professor Johnson shows doubling in 14 days . . . . in England. Add in the other parts of UK and you get the estimate I shared.


Having said all that, today's case (reported) number is another thousand up. There's some late reporting after the BH w/e - all the figures before the w/e, by specimen date have been augmented (and I have drawn that amended data into the revised graph below). That supports that the UK cases are set to double in about two weeks (a daily average increase since 16 May of 4.7%). If that rate of increase persists, I think the 'no earlier than' 21 Jun date relaxation is in jeopardy, or at least SAGE will be clear (and probably vocal, in a way that they weren't quite in September). Irrespective of the best for the country in the round which rightly will be a political decision, they must robustly represent the science/health factors. Furthermore they can see that 'history' is being fashioned under their noses: let's hope their frankness doesn't play out to be a 'Cassandra' contribution.




Data cut-off 29 May (data as at 3 Jun), orange line = 7 day average


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## roubaixtuesday (4 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> let's hope their frankness doesn't play out to be a 'Cassandra' contribution



Thus far the precise opposite has happened many times; rather than the "Cassandra" problem we've had a "Dr Pangloss" issue. 

It's playing out yet again now with Johnson breezily saying there's no reason we can't go ahead 21st whilst the scientific community says the opposite.


----------



## lane (4 Jun 2021)

Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of the vaccine decision - it is concerning that we already have expectation that hospitals will be swamped.

Town’s director of public health says ‘unjust’ decision could lead to local hospital being swamped within four weeks

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...in-blackburn-says-nhs-as-infection-rate-grows


----------



## lane (4 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Thus far the precise opposite has happened many times; rather than the "Cassandra" problem we've had a "Dr Pangloss" issue.
> 
> It's playing out yet again now with Johnson breezily saying there's no reason we can't go ahead 21st whilst the scientific community says the opposite.



But with Johnson's track record of always making the right call what can possibly go wrong.


----------



## lane (4 Jun 2021)

Pfizer vaccine recipients have lower antibodies targeting Indian variant, study shows

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/pfizer-vaccine-b938702.html


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## Milzy (4 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of the vaccine decision - it is concerning that we already have expectation that hospitals will be swamped.
> 
> Town’s director of public health says ‘unjust’ decision could lead to local hospital being swamped within four weeks
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...in-blackburn-says-nhs-as-infection-rate-grows


It’s all maybes, nobody actually really knows for sure what will happen. Newspapers sensationalise everything. It’s the new normal.


----------



## matticus (4 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Thus far the precise opposite has happened many times; rather than the "Cassandra" problem we've had a "Dr Pangloss" issue.


Oi - this is NACA, not Pseuds Corner!


----------



## Johnno260 (4 Jun 2021)

Things will spike it’s recent history repeating itself.

It’s a combination of people wanting normality in my opinion and rushing out.

And the anti vax narrative ramping up, people are getting angry and listening to the cult of denial more, the more mainstream media try and block these guys it feeds their the truth is being suppressed narrative.

I have tried and there is zero point engaging with these people as any source they deem corrupted isn’t a viable one.


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## Ajax Bay (4 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of the vaccine decision - it is concerning that we already have expectation that hospitals will be swamped. Town’s director of public health says ‘unjust’ decision could lead to local hospital being swamped within four weeks
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...in-blackburn-says-nhs-as-infection-rate-grows





Milzy said:


> It’s all maybes, nobody actually really knows for sure what will happen. Newspapers sensationalise everything. It’s the new normal.


@lane did you read the article through? This is as @Milzy says: "all maybes"
And the reason they decided not to divert more vaccine supply there was that the population were not stepping up. So the whining of the MP and others should be introspective: 'we need to make more effort ourselves', to encourage vaccine uptake, through local community leaders. Blaming others gets nowhere. They must raise vaccine uptake in the hesitant over 50s (the vulnerable 98%): from these deliberately unvaccinated will be drawn the unhappy individuals who risk needing hospital after catching COVID-19.
Jane Scattergood, NHS Covid-19 vaccination programme lead in Lancashire and south Cumbria said it was “increasingly difficult to drive uptake in the eligible cohorts” during the second week of the surge fortnight in Blackburn. Not an "unjust" decision: a rational one.
Kate Hollern MP (local) said: “Given Blackburn has the highest rate of infections in the country, the government’s decision beggars belief. Without further surge vaccinations, the NHS will be placed under overwhelming and unnecessary pressure – the government’s inaction could cause entirely avoidable deaths across Lancashire.”
This assertion lacks logic. What will stop the spread of disease is not vaccines but good non-pharma interventions: willingness to get tested, adhering to quarantining and social distancing, and minimising inter household indoor mixing. The MP should harangue her constituents: it would have much greater effect on minimising the strain on the Royal Blackburn Hospitals (note that between the sites they have ~1000 beds. I haven't been able to find out how many are currently occupied by patients who have tested positive for COVID-19. But last November it had 240; way more than currently. Pressure: yes. Unwelcome: yes. Overwhelming: err, no.


----------



## mjr (4 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The MP should harangue her constituents: it would have much greater effect on minimising the strain on the Royal Blackburn Hospitals


Because haranguing people is soooo persuasive(!) 

I do not agree with the "blame the public" narrative while there is still so much gov.uk could do to make the case and encourage testing, such as reasonable sick pay while quarantined.


----------



## lane (4 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> @lane did you read the article through. This is as @Milzy says: "all maybes"
> And the reason they decided not to divert more vaccine supply there was that the population were not stepping up. So the whining of the MP and others should be introspective: 'we need to make more effort ourselves', to encourage vaccine uptake, through local community leaders. Blaming others gets nowhere. They must raise vaccine uptake in the hesitant over 50s (the vulnerable 98%): from these deliberately unvaccinated will be drawn the unhappy individuals who risk needing hospital after catching COVID-19.
> Jane Scattergood, NHS Covid-19 vaccination programme lead in Lancashire and south Cumbria said it was “increasingly difficult to drive uptake in the eligible cohorts” during the second week of the surge fortnight in Blackburn. Not an "unjust" decision: a rational one.
> Kate Hollern MP (local) said: “Given Blackburn has the highest rate of infections in the country, the government’s decision beggars belief. Without further surge vaccinations, the NHS will be placed under overwhelming and unnecessary pressure – the government’s inaction could cause entirely avoidable deaths across Lancashire.”
> This assertion lacks logic. What will stop the spread of disease is not vaccines but good non-pharma interventions: willingness to get tested, adhering to quarantining and social distancing, and minimising inter household indoor mixing. The MP should harangue her constituents: it would have much greater effect on minimising the strain on the Royal Blackburn Hospitals (note that between the sites they have ~1000 beds. I haven't been able to find out how many are currently occupied by patients who have tested positive for COVID-19. But last November it had 240; way more than currently. Pressure: yes. Unwelcome: yes. Overwhelming: err, no.



I did read the article. Did you read my post? Most of your answer seems to be regarding the rights and wrongs of not providing extra vaccine which i don't really have a view on and I don't really care about. I was concerned that a public health official was talking about hospitals being swamped in four weeks. I don't have an agenda to defend the Government though so might have read it through a different lens than you did.


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## Ajax Bay (4 Jun 2021)

Yes, I did read your post, and even quoted it!


lane said:


> I was concerned that a public health official was talking about hospitals being swamped in four weeks.


I suggest this is all 'talk' based on extreme projections (that the cases will increase at the same rate) and worst assumptions (that these cases in will result in hospitalisations at the same rate as when the population was not vaccinated at all).
I can understand your concern: public health officials should talk in a more measured way about the likelihood of demands on their trust hospitals. But I think the Guardian headline writers have misrepresented Blackburn’s Director of PH. He warned "the NHS that not providing additional doses would lead to avoidable deaths and the NHS being swamped within four weeks, calling it “unfair, unjust and avoidable”. [But extra supplies of vaccines would not change the (see be) low risk of that, edit: so I'd add: "unrelated".]
In Blackburn, because of the high number of cases both now, in September, and in November, there will be developing community immunity resulting from previous infection as well as vaccination. Besides NPI measure effects, this will mean cases do not continue to rise at the current rate and the risk of hospitals being "swamped" is top end sensitivity analysis territory.
We all read articles through an individual lens. I try to look at such assertions and see whether there's a basis for them.
Edit: In the whole of the North West (of which BwD is but a small part), the COVID-19 bed occupancy is 192 (@ 3 Jun).


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## lane (5 Jun 2021)

Bolton - "Town is ‘drowning in vaccines’ and bending national rules while other areas ask for more first doses."

"Across England, some local health services are offering jabs to people aged 18 or even 16 and over, while others – such as Blackburn, the current Covid hotspot – have begged for more first doses."

"University College London has told its students of all ages they can receive vaccinations from noon on Saturday at a surgery near its Bloomsbury campus."

"Several boroughs in Greater Manchester are deviating from the JCVI guidance"

It seems we had a good national system of vaccination and prioritisation which was working well and now that has gone to pot.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...id-jabs-four-weeks-after-first-to-use-surplus


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## lane (5 Jun 2021)

"Nearly six months after the government kicked off the country’s most ambitious vaccination campaign, almost one in four black people over the age of 70 were not vaccinated as of 26 May, compared with 97% of white people of the same age."

"Among black people in their 50s, this figure rises to one in three, compared with 90% of white people, prompting calls for government to redouble efforts to tackle disparities as restrictions are lifted."

https://www.theguardian.com/society...y-black-people-in-the-uk-still-not-vaccinated

Likely to become a problem with lockdown easing and the Indian variant both more likely to result in hospitalisation and being between 60% and 100% more transmittable than the Kent variant.


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## mjr (5 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> "Nearly six months after the government kicked off the country’s most ambitious vaccination campaign, almost one in four black people over the age of 70 were not vaccinated as of 26 May, compared with 97% of white people of the same age."


97% of white people over 70 not vaccinated? I think they've messed up the editing there!


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## mjr (5 Jun 2021)

Here is a very well-written report on that whole droplet/aerosol handwashing/ventilation debate from early in the pandemic: https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/

Medics don't know physics as well as physicists, it turns out. Who knew? :,(


----------



## Ajax Bay (5 Jun 2021)

SARS-CoV-2 variants - Technical briefing 14 dated 3 Jun. In particular I focus on the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant.
*Severity*
Analyses undertaken in England and Scotland found an increased risk of hospitalisation in Delta variant infection cases. Effect of vaccination with one or two doses on severity is not determined.
Based on analysis of genomic sequenced cases, there was a significantly increased risk of hospitalisation within 14 days of specimen date of 2.5 times (England HR 2.61, 95% CI 1.56-4.36).(Scotland 2.39, 95% CI 1.72 to 3.31).
Adjusted for age together with number of co morbid conditions, gender and vaccination status.
*Transmissibility*
Secondary attack rates are about 50% higher than the Alpha variant.
*Vaccine Effectiveness*


----------



## silva (6 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> The figures in India are likely under reported by a huge factor.
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1391238136219512833



Likely?
One year ago, with no testing at all, they weren't underreported?


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## Ajax Bay (6 Jun 2021)

The change to travel category of Portugal, with less notice than the Government indicated was to be expected, seems a bit irrational. It's been said to be based on the presence of the Delta variant with the additional mutation K417N, but the evidence shared seems weak?
Will import from Portugal make much difference given the case rate in UK? This smacks of gesture politics: we must be seen to do something: an overreaction to the procrastinating handing of India's travel status in April with costly adverse effect. On the plus side, it should slow the transfer of Delta variant virus to Portugal: a 'good' thing'.




Having said that, apart from people who need to go and sort out second/holiday homes, travel outside the UK for holidays seems an unnecessary risk to take, both for individuals and their wider community. (Same goes for India etc in April, of course, and that didn't end well.)


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (6 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The change to travel category of Portugal, with less notice than the Government indicated was to be expected, seems a bit irrational. It's been said to be based on the presence of the Delta variant with the additional mutation K417N, but the evidence shared seems weak?
> Will import from Portugal make much difference given the case rate in UK? This smacks of gesture politics: we must be seen to do something: an overreaction to the procrastinating handing of India's travel status in April with costly adverse effect.
> View attachment 592433
> 
> Having said that, apart from people who need to go and sort out second/holiday homes, travel outside the UK for holidays seems an unnecessary risk to take, both for individuals and their wider community. (Same goes for India etc in April, of course, and that didn't end well.)


I did wonder whether it was because a government minister on a football beano got beeped by the test and trace app.


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## classic33 (6 Jun 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I did wonder whether it was because a government minister on a football beano got beeped by the test and trace app.


That sounds like it could be the true reason.


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## Milzy (6 Jun 2021)

I can see a massive U-Turn on the 21st now.


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## Johnno260 (6 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> I can see a massive U-Turn on the 21st now.


Yup and people will cry murder.

it’s been a running theme throughout and it’s a fluid situation that needs to be adapted to.


----------



## DaveReading (6 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> I can see a massive U-Turn on the 21st now.



5th July being mooted as a revised date.


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## PK99 (6 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> I can see a massive U-Turn on the 21st now.



What will be the U-turn?

We follow the data and don't open on the 21st?





ie as laid out in the Road Map

EDIT:

PS . Whatever the decision the same people will complain.

Open up - "They are ignoring the data"

Delay opening up - "U-turn!"


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## mjr (6 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> PS . Whatever the decision the same people will complain.
> 
> Open up - "They are ignoring the data"
> 
> Delay opening up - "U-turn!"


Gosh, it's almost like they should try to do the right thing to save most lives, rather than worrying about what people will say!


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## shep (6 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> Gosh, it's almost like they should try to do the right thing to save most lives, rather than worrying about what people will say!


I assume it's people on here he's referring to.


----------



## Johnno260 (6 Jun 2021)

Either way they get slammed open up and it costs lives slammed.

Delay opening up and people will go mental, and you feed the anti crowd as they will say told you so.

If it was me I would play it safe, I’m glad I’m not in government it’s a no win really.


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## Adam4868 (6 Jun 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> If it was me I would play it safe, I’m glad I’m not in government it’s a no win really.


Oh I don't know if your white,middle class or even just married to the right person there's no limit on the ranks you can rise to....plus the cash is a extra bonus,goes without saying


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## Adam4868 (6 Jun 2021)

Blackpool and the whole of the fylde coast has been packed this half term.Im not sure what the difference of opening up means ? There's queues at the Wetherspoons from 8 in the morning on the seafront.


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## Ajax Bay (6 Jun 2021)

If the Government decides to go ahead with setting the date for Phase 4 relaxation as 21 Jun, they will be doing so on the basis of the data available, assessed by the best brains UK has (SAGE, CSA, CMO). Some may think that the data should interpreted differently. The 4 tests have been clearly spelt out: I've shared my assessment of the likelihood of those tests being "passed" (based on a projection from current data) upthread ^^^ - to save you the effort I've pasted them below (thanks @PK99 ). Successfully, sufficiently, unsustainable, fundamentally.
Who else do you think is the best body to make that judgement?
"Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:

the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern."


----------



## lane (6 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> If the Government decides to go ahead with setting the date for Phase 4 relaxation as 21 Jun, they will be doing so on the basis of the data available, assessed by the best brains UK has (SAGE, CSA, CMO). Some may think that the data should interpreted differently. The 4 tests have been clearly spelt out: I've shared my assessment of the likelihood of those tests being "passed" (based on a projection from current data) upthread ^^^ - to save you the effort I've pasted them below (thanks @PK99 ). Successfully, sufficiently, unsustainable, fundamentally.
> Who else do you think is the best body to make that judgement?
> "Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:
> 
> ...



I'm sure this dispationate analysis doesn't happen in a vaccum when you have backbenchers and key elements of the press shouting OPEN Up!!


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## Ajax Bay (6 Jun 2021)

And loads of others whose contributions should be (and are being) heard say "Later!" Would you prefer to live in an oxygen-free, authoritarian Dystopia?
Edit: Share a plan; set out the tests; gather the data; seek sage advice; and decide. Delay is not procrastination per se.


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## roubaixtuesday (6 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> If the Government decides to go ahead with setting the date for Phase 4 relaxation as 21 Jun, _they will be doing so on the basis of the data available, assessed by the best brains UK has_ (SAGE, CSA, CMO)



(My emphasis).

Much more likely they'll be doing it on the basis of politics and wishful thinking.

The views of those August bodies have been duly ignored multiple times before. Why should that suddenly change now?


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## midlife (6 Jun 2021)

Slightly off topic but still outbreak related. 

16 year old has finished school early by 6 weeks to allow the teachers time to sort out his GCSE results. Back in September 6th form, all students can go into 6th form whatever their results.


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## Johnno260 (7 Jun 2021)

midlife said:


> Slightly off topic but still outbreak related.
> 
> 16 year old has finished school early by 6 weeks to allow the teachers time to sort out his GCSE results. Back in September 6th form, all students can go into 6th form whatever their results.



I wouldn’t really say it’s off topic, but it’s something that gets overlooked often, the kids in exam years I really feel for, it’s a stressful time as it is an having this disruption and uncertainty won’t help.


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## DCLane (7 Jun 2021)

midlife said:


> Slightly off topic but still outbreak related.
> 
> 16 year old has finished school early by 6 weeks to allow the teachers time to sort out his GCSE results. Back in September 6th form, all students can go into 6th form whatever their results.



Hopefully he'll do OK. My youngest finished last year and the grades were sorted out.

However, a lot of those given unconditional offers for 6th form decided to go since they had nothing else planned. It's meant issues for the 6th form and quite a number have since left.


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## PK99 (7 Jun 2021)

Adam4868 said:


> Blackpool and the whole of the fylde coast has been packed this half term.Im not sure what the difference of opening up means ? There's queues at the Wetherspoons from 8 in the morning on the seafront.



You mean a disappointingly large proportion of British Jo Public are stupid and do stupid things then blame the government?


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## mjr (7 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> You mean a disappointingly large proportion of British Jo Public are stupid and do stupid things then blame the government?


Why do you keep on against people called Jo?


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## mjr (7 Jun 2021)

Belgium now vaccinating 18+. Not using AZ at all for them mainly because all doses now held are for seconds. Seems to be mostly Pfizer-BioNTech.

Netherlands down to 35. Not sure what they are using.


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## Adam4868 (7 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> You mean a disappointingly large proportion of British Jo Public are stupid and do stupid things then blame the government?


Not really....most things are open.Funfair,Tower,Pubs etc.Half term good weather did they honestly think people weren't desperate to get out and enjoy themselves ?


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## shep (7 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> You mean a disappointingly large proportion of British Jo Public are stupid and do stupid things then blame the government?


I would only guess that the above people aren't the ones moaning about the government (if they are then they really are stupid) but the people NOT doing the above but witnessing it.

I'm hoping for things to get back to normal on the 21st and will be taking full advantage but if there's a rise in cases then I'm not going to blame the Government for allowing me more freedom?


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## Rocky (7 Jun 2021)

Just in case we are in any doubt about the role of the government:

It is the *first responsibility of government* in a democratic society to *protect* and safeguard the lives of *its citizens*. That is where the public interest lies.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/home-office/about

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200405/ldjudgmt/jd041216/a&oth-6.htm

So surely, if the government has data which suggest that the dangers from the pandemic and, in particular, variant strains of Covid, outweigh the benefits of a further opening up, it is its duty to prolong the restrictive measures.


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## bitsandbobs (7 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> Belgium now vaccinating 18+. Not using AZ at all for them mainly because all doses now held are for seconds. Seems to be mostly Pfizer-BioNTech.
> 
> *Netherlands down to 35. Not sure what they are using.*



Pfizer and Moderna. Janssen got canned last week. Haven't seen AZ for weeks.


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## Ajax Bay (7 Jun 2021)

Rocky said:


> Just in case we are in any doubt about the role of the government:
> "It is the first responsibility of government in a democratic society to protect and safeguard the lives of its citizens. That is where the public interest lies."
> https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200405/ldjudgmt/jd041216/a&oth-6.htm
> So surely, if the government has data which suggest that the dangers from the pandemic and, in particular, variant strains of Covid, outweigh the benefits of a further opening up, it is its duty to prolong the restrictive measures.


Thank you for sharing that and helping others wallowing in the dubious swamps,
In the same vein, therefore, "surely" you'd agree that:
if the government has data which suggest that the dangers from the pandemic and, in particular, variant strains of Covid, are outweighed by the benefits of 'opening up further', it is its duty to minimise the restrictive measures and their duration.

Going to your link, you quoted the first of two "cardinal" principles offered in the judgement. I share the others:
"It is the first responsibility of government in a democratic society to protect and safeguard the lives of its citizens. That is where the public interest lies. 
"the court [and by implication it thinks the government has this duty/responsibility too] has another duty too. It is to protect and safeguard the rights of the individual. Among these rights is the individual's right to liberty."
"There is a third principle which the court must also recognise when it is called upon to perform its central function [and by implication it thinks the government has this duty/responsibility too] , which is to strike the balance between the public interest and the right to liberty."


----------



## matticus (7 Jun 2021)

Can I pick any 2?


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## mjr (7 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> In the same vein, therefore, "surely" you'd agree that:
> if the government has data which suggest that the dangers from the pandemic and, in particular, variant strains of Covid, are outweighed by the benefits of 'opening up further', it is its duty to minimise the restrictive measures and their duration.


Have the government published a quantitative assessment of how it is weighing these two sides up, either in general or for the previous steps? Or is Hancock, Johnson or whoever simply looking at the two and saying "this apple is better than that orange" without much prospect of objective assessment or sensible discussion?


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## Ajax Bay (7 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> Have the government published a quantitative assessment of how it is weighing these two sides up, either in general or for the previous steps? Or is Hancock, Johnson or whoever simply looking at the two and saying "this apple is better than that orange" without much prospect of objective assessment or sensible discussion?


Don't think they have published that. What metrics do you think they might usefully use (I think the 4 tests give a useful framework)? How much weighting should be given to each aspect? A risk assessment approach might be useful, with a broad spectrum of potential hazards, not just COVID-19 health related. I suspect more people are dying, weekly, because of rather than from COVID-19 (cause of death as recorded on death certificate). Should, from 21 Jun, the primary cost (COVID-19 illness and worse) is be allowed to continue to trump secondary and tertiary costs (too many to list including health related)?
'Perhaps' this is a complex assessment which is a bit trickier than 'y' apples versus 'z' oranges: I appreciate you may find it too nuanced to approach decisions in that way.
I'd also observe (and think it likely for both pandemic control and political reasons) that the decision is non-binary. There's a simple spectrum from (eg): set a date 'x' weeks after 21 Jun, relax on 21 Jun but with residual measures (I have suggested a few candidates upthread), relax measures and rely on public restraint and common sense.



I suggest that the likelihood of there being a lack "of objective assessment or sensible discussion" is remote. This is a very important and very difficult decision. Perhaps you could have a go at defining "sensible" to help us take an objective view of whether your implied critique has merit?


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## mjr (8 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Perhaps you could have a go at defining "sensible" to help us take an objective view of whether your implied critique has merit?


Not enough time just now to even start. Moreover, I am not the one claiming to have some objective decision-making method for this. I used to teach, which gave me lots of practise at spotting someone trying to bluff their way through questions without showing their working-out, and this looks like one!

What's more, I can say a road is potholed without defining all possible ways of fixing it. Since when must we have all the answers before pointing out that government doesn't?


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## JBGooner (8 Jun 2021)

Rocky said:


> So surely, if the government has data which suggest that the dangers from the pandemic and, in particular, variant strains of Covid, outweigh the benefits of a further opening up, it is its duty to prolong the restrictive measures.



Latest data I've seen
"Figures up to 3 June showed that out of 12,383 cases in England of the Delta variant B1617.2, first identified in India, 464 people turned up at A&E and 126 were admitted to hospital. Of these 126 people, just three – or 2 per cent – had received two doses of a vaccine.

Two thirds of those admitted to hospital, 83 people, were unvaccinated, while 28 had received one dose.

Three had had a first dose within the previous 21 days, so were not counted as one dose because there had not yet been enough time for an immune response. A further nine had not had their hospital admission linked to their vaccine status.

During the first and second waves, 3.5 per cent of people infected with coronavirus needed hospitalisation. The latest figures show that rate has now fallen to 1 per cent." https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/me...inated-new-figures-show/ar-AAKNLe9?li=BBoPWjQ

Should be another 4 million people or so fully vaccinated by 21st June.


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## midlife (9 Jun 2021)

After having no COVID patients in our hospitals for a while the latest email today suggests that there are 5. All being treated in their own rooms so the suggestion is that they are not in ITU. 

However email goes on about sticking rigidly to infection control, PPE and the like. Local rates like in Eden have jumped a bit too and being a tourist area with a likely influx from all over including the North West we just gave to wait and see....


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## mjr (10 Jun 2021)

Thanks to the USA's unique combination of freedom of information and weak privacy laws, we can now read about Dr Fauci's emails from early 2020. He may not be infallible but he certainly seems to have the patience of a saint! https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/05/fau...-in-the-early-days-of-the-covid-pandemic.html


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## Unkraut (10 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> we can now read about Dr Fauci's emails from early 2020.


I'm a bit surprised no-one has brought this up earlier. The e-mails are stirring up the right into thinking at long last they have proof of mendacious Big Government and its corona scam. You enact a policy on the current scientific evidence, more evidence comes in so you change the policy in accordance with the new information (masks are a good example) only to be told that you must have been lying first time round.

Just doing a quick pit stop, I have often wondered what would happen if those who delight in these e-mail revelations were to have all _their _e-mails released for public scrutiny.


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## lane (11 Jun 2021)

There perhaps should be some accountability for giving out wrong info that costs lives.


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## SpokeyDokey (11 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> There perhaps should be some accountability for giving out wrong info that costs lives.



Most, if not all, professional bodies have such mechanics in place.

If we are talking politicians and the various apparatus of State specifically, then we tread a very fine line between necessary and timely actions being taken based on the best information available at that moment, or interpretation thereof, vs freezing the system through fear of the consequences of subsequent reinterpretation of data etc.


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## mjr (11 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> There perhaps should be some accountability for giving out wrong info that costs lives.


What info are you thinking of?

Should there be a distinction between wrong info in good faith, and wrong info for nefarious reasons?


----------



## lane (11 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> What info are you thinking of?
> 
> Should there be a distinction between wrong info in good faith, and wrong info for nefarious reasons?



Well some people from early on have provided good advice which would have saved lives but the people tasked with advising the population in the UK and elsewhere dismissed that advice. Where do you draw the line between good faith and incompetence?


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## lane (11 Jun 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Most, if not all, professional bodies have such mechanics in place.
> 
> If we are talking politicians and the various apparatus of State specifically, then we tread a very fine line between necessary and timely actions being taken based on the best information available at that moment, or interpretation thereof, vs freezing the system through fear of the consequences of subsequent reinterpretation of data etc.



No I am talking about the professionals tasked with advising the population who dismissed advice that was available that would have saved lives.


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## mjr (11 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Well some people from early on have provided good advice which would have saved lives but the people tasked with advising the population in the UK and elsewhere dismissed that advice. Where do you draw the line between good faith and incompetence?


On what, in particular?

If masks, I linked an article in https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6431508 about how old mistakes led to incorrect medical "facts" being established and taking quite some effort to overturn. We had quite a lot of antimask posts on here early in the pandemic. I don't hold it against those who sincerely believed the incorrect medical texts.


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## PK99 (11 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> Should there be a distinction between wrong info in good faith, and wrong info for nefarious reasons?




There absolutely should be such a distinction, or decision-making and giving advice becomes impossible. 

There should also be a recognition that the quality of a decision is not best measured by its outcome (which can be subject to unknown random factors or other changes post-decision) but by how it was taken in light of the information available at the time.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (11 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> No I am talking about the professionals tasked with advising the population who dismissed advice that was available that would have saved lives.



Okay - thanks for the clarification.


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## rockyroller (11 Jun 2021)

some schools in New Hampshire (U.S.) are making masks optional ...


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## lane (11 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> On what, in particular?
> 
> If masks, I linked an article in https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6431508 about how old mistakes led to incorrect medical "facts" being established and taking quite some effort to overturn. We had quite a lot of antimask posts on here early in the pandemic. I don't hold it against those who sincerely believed the incorrect medical texts.



Masks is one thing. there was a post on this thread a short time ago where a scientist was desperately trying to get the WHO and others to take seriously airborne spread and they dismissed her advice. These things would have made a massive difference.


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## Ajax Bay (11 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> a post on this thread a short time ago where a scientist was desperately trying to get the WHO and others to take seriously airborne spread and they dismissed her advice.


It's difficult to engage with this as it's not clear, to me anyway, what the issue is, when they were trying to get WHO to change, and to what extent 'airborne transmission/infection was not being taken seriously. Give us a link, perhaps? It obviously made an impact on you.
The balance between aerosol inhalation infection and infection from fomite contact has moved steadily to the former. Hence the whole 'hands' thing would have been better used for a snappy word for ventilation.


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## mjr (11 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Masks is one thing. there was a post on this thread a short time ago where a scientist was desperately trying to get the WHO and others to take seriously airborne spread and they dismissed her advice. These things would have made a massive difference.


That's the article I linked! The trouble with the idea of making the medics at WHO and CDC and others "accountab[le] for giving out wrong info that costs lives" is that the wrong info came from long-established medical texts. Do you think we really should punish people for passing on what they were taught? If they didn't accept at least most of what was in those textbooks, they probably wouldn't have graduated and never would have got their job!

Also, there might be a chilling effect if we make medics think they can be punished if they base anything on established facts rather than laboriously checking everything, or at least accepting every reasonable challenge. The potential perverse incentive for cover-ups and conspiracies would make the "big pharma" conspiracy theories seem trivial.

So, instead, do you want to punish the authors of the incorrect texts? In this case, because the error dates back to the mid-1960s, most of them were probably either basing their work on older incorrect texts, or are dead by now: Alexander Langmuir — named in the article as part of the confusion but not definitely the one who made the error — died in 1993.

Please, if you can make a good argument for who should be held responsible for this deadly mistake, write it now...


----------



## Ajax Bay (11 Jun 2021)

Spector has reported that symptoms experienced with infection by the Delta variant differ from both the original and the Alpha variant.

His team have been analysing the symptoms submitted by all app users and have noticed they’re not the same as they once were.
The number one symptom now is headache, followed by sore throat, runny nose and fever – “all those are not the old classic symptoms.
”[Symptom] number five is cough. It’s rarer, and we don’t even see loss of smell coming into the top 10 anymore. This variant seems to be working slightly differently.”

I hope this gets decent UK-wide publicity (John Cambell referred to it in yesterday's daily dit). The concern is that the symptoms have shifted a lot and don't match the government symptom lists very well anymore. A bit too close for comfort to symptoms for hay-fever and summer colds.


----------



## PK99 (11 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> The trouble with the idea of making the medics at WHO and CDC and others "accountab[le] for giving out wrong info that costs lives"



I must have missed something. Where does the idea of this WHO etc accountability come from?


----------



## midlife (11 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Spector has reported that symptoms experienced with infection by the Delta variant differ from both the original and the Alpha variant.
> 
> His team have been analysing the symptoms submitted by all app users and have noticed they’re not the same as they once were.
> The number one symptom now is headache, followed by sore throat, runny nose and fever – “all those are not the old classic symptoms.
> ...



That's interesting. My employer sends almost daily emails but change in symptoms not mentioned. We phone all patients before they attend and ask if they have any symptoms (government) and then again on arrival. 

The only thing we do differently is not take their temp any more.


----------



## mjr (11 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> I must have missed something. Where does the idea of this WHO etc accountability come from?


Here:


lane said:


> There perhaps should be some accountability for giving out wrong info that costs lives.



I think it is unworkable in general. Some misinformation campaigns might be punishable, but even that is not simple.


----------



## PK99 (11 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> Here:
> 
> 
> I think it is unworkable in general. Some misinformation campaigns might be punishable, but even that is not simple.



The best scientific advice of the moment is just that.

As knowledge and understanding change, so too changes the best scientific advice.

The new advice might contradict the old, but that does not mean the old advice was wrong when given.


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## Ajax Bay (11 Jun 2021)

midlife said:


> That's interesting. My employer sends almost daily emails but change in symptoms not mentioned. We phone all patients before they attend and ask if they have any symptoms (government) and then again on arrival.
> The only thing we do differently is not take their temp any more.


Recommend a 2 minute listen (from @4:00) He makes the point that the 'mainstream media' have not picked this up.

View: https://youtu.be/ImzsGesBApM?t=243


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## PK99 (11 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Recommend a 2 minute listen (from @4:00) He makes the point that the 'mainstream media' have not picked this up.
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/ImzsGesBApM?t=243
> 
> View attachment 593383




That was on Zoe YouTube yesterday.


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## Ajax Bay (11 Jun 2021)

Good MIT article for those who may be interested in why the Delta variant has a transmissibility advantage: Edit: the adjusted odds of household infection was 1.64 (95%CI 1.26-2.13, p <0.001) among those with Delta variant compared to those Alpha variant.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/10/1026090/delta-covid-19-variant-more-infectious/


----------



## Beebo (11 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Well some people from early on have provided good advice which would have saved lives but the people tasked with advising the population in the UK and elsewhere dismissed that advice. Where do you draw the line between good faith and incompetence?


How about suggesting bleach or sun light. Or constantly pushing untested drugs etc etc.


----------



## PK99 (11 Jun 2021)

On the news tonight the usual test positive graph was shown.

Surely this is now of limited value?

In earlier phases, positive tests today translated as baked in hospitalisation in 7/10 days later and deaths after 2/3 weeks.

Now with a significant number vaccinated that correspondence is broken.


----------



## lane (11 Jun 2021)

It seems reasonable to me if you have provided poor advice that has resulted in significant loss of life you should be accountable. If you can show that in all the circumstances you acted reasonably or to the best of your knowledge then you have nothing to worry about but you have still been held to account. It may well be though, that despite the text books being wrong or whatever, you were still negligent because you did not change your advice quickly enough, or you could on balance have provided advice that in the circumstances might have saved lives without any significant downside even though the science was not 100%. Or you need to account for the fact that other people gave better advice than you did based on the same set of information that everybody had access to. Hopefully the people advising Government and advising the public (often incorrectly) will be held to account in the public enquiry and will have to defend their actions. What happens if they are found to be negligent I am not sure.​​We can't, in this country, hold Trump to account, that is for the USA to do. I doubt many people in this country followed his advice in any case.​


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## lane (11 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> On the news tonight the usual test positive graph was shown.
> 
> Surely this is now of limited value?
> 
> ...



As I read today "weakened" not broken so the number of cases is still relevant and of concern. Half of adults in the UK have either no or limited protection against the Indian variant.


----------



## midlife (11 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Good MIT article for those who may be interested in why the Delta variant has a transmissibility advantage (of circa 40% CI 30-70%, over Alpha).
> https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/10/1026090/delta-covid-19-variant-more-infectious/



Guess that's why our employer is getting a bit twitchy


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## Ajax Bay (11 Jun 2021)

Latest technical briefing on VoC:
https://assets.publishing.service.g...ariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing.pdf
Key findings

data show 74% of sequenced cases and 96% of sequenced and genotyped cases are Delta
the 28-day case fatality rate for Delta remains low (0.1%), though mortality is a lagged indicator and the vast majority of cases are still within the 28 days of follow-up required
secondary attack rates have been iterated and remain higher for Delta than Alpha amongst both household and non-household contacts
increased risk of hospitalisation with Delta compared to Alpha
10_June_2021_Risk_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_DELTA
"Delta is predominant and all analyses find that it has a very substantial growth advantage.The observed high growth rate is likely to be due to a combination of transmissibility and immune escape; there is still geographic heterogeneity and a probable contribution from place-based context. Iterated analyses this week continue to support our previous estimates of vaccine effectiveness and hospitalisation risk. The priority investigations are vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation and death, further investigations of secondary attack rates, characterisation of the generation time, viral load and period of infectivity, and epidemiological studies of reinfections."


----------



## Craig the cyclist (12 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> I can see a massive U-Turn on the 21st now.



Why is it being described as u turn over and over? The message has always been 'not before the .......' Changing it isn't a u turn, it'sjust doing exactly what they said they would


----------



## Bromptonaut (12 Jun 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Why is it being described as u turn over and over? The message has always been 'not before the .......' Changing it isn't a u turn, it'sjust doing exactly what they said they would



The test is whether government do delay, which seems to be where the evidence is going, or whether they cave to backbench pressure to ease anyway. The latter risks repeating last summer's mistakes.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (12 Jun 2021)

Had a really awkward moment yesterday when one of the company directors stuck his hand out for a handshake.

And I looked at it.

And I looked at him

And I looked at it.

And he said "Well don't leave me hanging fella"

And I said "I absolutely will. Nobody does that any more"

And he took offence and stomped off. 

Thing is, he's never stopped shaking hands. He worked straight through Covid when everyone was on furlough, travelling the country, meeting customers, shaking their hands. 

Now *I'm* the weirdo


----------



## Ajax Bay (12 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> As I read today "weakened" not broken so the number of cases is still relevant and of concern. Half of adults in the UK have either no or limited protection against the Indian variant.


Agreed: weakened (thank goodness). I think @PK99 saying "broken" overstates it. 90+% of those ending up in hospital in the first 9 months were 70yo+. All (well 95+%) of those are fully vaccinated. That will give them 81% protection against symptomatic disease (Delta VoC) (and rather more against hospitalisation).
The "half of adults in the UK" you mention are vast majority under 60s or people who've chosen not to get vaccinated, or delayed getting their second jab when offered (see figures below). The odds ratio of them ending up in hospital is much lower than the older cohort hospitalised in the second wave (pre-vaccination programme effect).
Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease (presumably an average for all vaccines given, may vary with age): Alpha 1 dose 50%, 2 doses 88%; Delta 33% and 81% (p51).
By 21 Jun, 40.6M will have had first dose at least 14 days ago (roughly over 35).
Of those, 28.2M will have had second dose at least 14 days ago (roughly over 55).
About half of 16-34 age group (so about 8M) have antibodies as per ONS data (mostly previous infection rather than vaccination) and antibodies in a previously positive individual is pretty much equivalent to full vaccination?
Adult population of UK is 53M.






[From USA CDC data - mainly Alpha VoC)


----------



## alicat (12 Jun 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> And I said "I absolutely will. Nobody does that any more"



Good on you for standing your ground and doing what makes you feel safe.


----------



## PK99 (12 Jun 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Why is it being described as u turn over and over? The message has always been 'not before the .......' Changing it isn't a u turn, it'sjust *doing exactly what they said they would*



Once again, it is clearly worth repeating:

*What are the four tests?*

The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
*The assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern.*

*Step 4
At least five weeks after Step 3, no earlier than 21 June. By Step 4, the Government hopes *to be able to introduce the following* (subject to review):*


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## Pale Rider (12 Jun 2021)

Bromptonaut said:


> The latter risks repeating last summer's mistakes.



The latter risks yet more critics using nothing other than hindsight.


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## Rocky (12 Jun 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> The latter risks yet more critics using nothing other than hindsight.


There'll always be critics. But some critics are better informed than others. Evidence from the autumn suggests that it was not just hindsight that tells us the lockdown was too late.

Forecasting science is predicated on learning from mistakes and improving the prediction model. That is the same for policy making. The first stage in that is admitting when mistakes were made and not blaming 'the scientists'.


----------



## Ajax Bay (12 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> Test 4: "The assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern."


Perhaps someone would like to comment giving us a considered, articulated assessment of the extent to which the dominance of the Delta VoC, its additional transmissibility, the reduced protection one dose of vaccine offers against it, fundamentally changes the risks? Those risks include:

the risk of level of hospitalisations rising to an extent which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS (and NB all the NHS's vital non-Covid activities)
the risk that a further mutation of the Delta VoC giving a further advantage emerges (Delta.AY1 with the spike protein mutation K417N seems to be getting suitable scrutiny).
On the first there's been some suggestion that the Delta VoC has a higher hospitalisation rate (maybe double, albeit moderated by age) than Alpha - but with some uncertainty.
As an aside, other nations are only just managing to keep their case levels down against the Alpha variant, with a much lower population vaccination status. The Delta VoC will, regrettably, reach them, just as the Alpha one did with the UK having to grapple with it from December onwards, and then slowly seeped out. Increasing dominance of Delta over Alpha lifts the effective R number by 60% which will tip most nations above 1 and cases will rise exponentially (I use that in its proper sense). The rate of vaccination and its further progress in UK means that vaccination is shrinking the susceptible cohort (and they're much younger) so there's potential to 'win' the 'race': others do not have that advantage.


----------



## Craig the cyclist (12 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> It seems reasonable to me if you have provided poor advice that has resulted in significant loss of life you should be accountable. If you can show that in all the circumstances you acted reasonably or to the best of your knowledge then you have nothing to worry about but you have still been held to account. It may well be though, that despite the text books being wrong or whatever, you were still negligent because you did not change your advice quickly enough, or you could on balance have provided advice that in the circumstances might have saved lives without any significant downside even though the science was not 100%. Or you need to account for the fact that other people gave better advice than you did based on the same set of information that everybody had access to. Hopefully the people advising Government and advising the public (often incorrectly) will be held to account in the public enquiry and will have to defend their actions. What happens if they are found to be negligent I am not sure.​​We can't, in this country, hold Trump to account, that is for the USA to do. I doubt many people in this country followed his advice in any case.​



The problem here is who gets to decide if the advice was ok at the time?

You will never, in a million years, ever believe that Matt Hancock did the best he could considering the pressure, time, demands and new knowledge appearing every day, you will always say he gave dodgy contracts and is responsible for everyone who died.

During Covid 1 I had a conversation, in a small room with no masks, with three very senior clinicians trying to decide where the upper respiratory tract started, and what was an AGP and what wasn't, and whether an oral cavity AGP was less risky than a lower respiratory tract AGP. A decision was made, and it was different to the one that subsequently came out from the DoH about 4 weeks later. As there were no evolutionary changes in the time between the two, should we be held accountable for having a different definition of the upper respiratory tract?

Think back to HIV, in the early days the advice was be careful with shared facilities, always wear gloves, unprotected oral sex was ok, find out the facts, don't die of ignorance. Then Lady Di touched a patient and didn't die! Actually that was against the advice at the time, but showed a huge degree of human compassion and kindness. When Boris did the same with the Covid patient, he followed the advice of wash your hands etc, at the time he did that we were working on our Trusts Covid response in a tiny office with 4 of us! Now both things seem utterly and unbelievably ludicrous that we ever did that!

This whole thing has been so unbelievably fast paced, that to now put the sword of Damocles over the heads of people with 'if we find out you got it wrong in a years time you will be held accountable' is outrageous. This hasn't been a learning curve, it's been a learning vertical wall, and we are still trying to climb it.


----------



## PK99 (12 Jun 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> The problem here is who gets to decide if the advice was ok at the time?
> 
> You will never, in a million years, ever believe that Matt Hancock did the best he could considering the pressure, time, demands and new knowledge appearing every day, you will always say he gave dodgy contracts and is responsible for everyone who died.
> 
> ...



Thank you.

One of the best and most balanced opinion posts I have read for a long time.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Jun 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> The problem here is who gets to decide if the advice was ok at the time?
> 
> You will never, in a million years, ever believe that Matt Hancock did the best he could considering the pressure, time, demands and new knowledge appearing every day, you will always say he gave dodgy contracts and is responsible for everyone who died.
> 
> ...



But some countries have fared better than others. 

Australia for example lock down whole cities on half a dozen cases. Boris and chubby mates look a million miles from learning that lesson.


----------



## kingrollo (12 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> Thank you.
> 
> One of the best and most balanced opinion posts I have read for a long time.



You want to get over to the daily mail site sharpish then.


----------



## newfhouse (12 Jun 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> You will never, in a million years, ever believe that Matt Hancock did the best he could considering the pressure, time, demands and new knowledge appearing every day, you will always say he gave dodgy contracts and is responsible for everyone who died.


Contracts for mates notwithstanding, I suspect he did do his best. It’s not unreasonable, though, to question whether his best was good enough, or even the best available.


----------



## lane (12 Jun 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> The problem here is who gets to decide if the advice was ok at the time?
> 
> You will never, in a million years, ever believe that Matt Hancock did the best he could considering the pressure, time, demands and new knowledge appearing every day, you will always say he gave dodgy contracts and is responsible for everyone who died.
> 
> ...



I guess the inquiry will take a view. Although i doubt the two main protagonists have much to fear - they are both ready for retirement and one is a multimillionaire from his time working in the drugs industry.


----------



## PK99 (12 Jun 2021)

One thing I observe here, more generally on the InterWeb, and in the real world, is a misunderstanding of how science works. 

Many non scientists appear to think science works through certainty and consensus. Scientists know it works through uncertainty and challenge.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (12 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> But some countries have fared better than others.
> 
> Australia for example lock down whole cities on half a dozen cases. Boris and chubby mates look a million miles from learning that lesson.



Ignoring the rather silly (imo) 'chubby mates' comment we've already been around the block on the non-comparables aspect of the UK vs Australia - no two nation's identities are exactly comparable and especially these two.

Time to move on a tad?


----------



## Craig the cyclist (12 Jun 2021)

newfhouse said:


> Contracts for mates notwithstanding, I suspect he did do his best. It’s not unreasonable, though, to question whether his best was good enough, or even the best available.



Fair enough, and exactly the reason that the inquiry will be ultimately pointless. 1/2 the country will read the report and say 'that all seems fair and dandy', the other 1/2 will read the report and say 'this is a steaming pile of do-do and nothing more than a *leftie attack on the government/establishment cover-up (whichever way it goes)' Still it will fill newspapers and tv news for the next 4 years.

But anyway, tell us, what would you do from here? Or will you just take great delight telling us that you wouldn't do whatever the government decide to do, thus putting yourself in the position of being able to say 'told you so' or 'well, they were lucky this time, but it's because of the scientists and not Boris and his decision making'. 

How would you handle the upcoming date of June 21st, bearing in my mind you don't know what is around the corner?


----------



## kingrollo (12 Jun 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Ignoring the rather silly (imo) 'chubby mates' comment we've already been around the block on the non-comparables aspect of the UK vs Australia - no two nation's identities are exactly comparable and especially these two.
> 
> Time to move on a tad?



Ok - back to backslapping.

Well done Boris you've done really well. Damm shame we have one the worst death rates....yeah but let's move along.....

That ok Mate ?


----------



## kingrollo (12 Jun 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Fair enough, and exactly the reason that the inquiry will be ultimately pointless. 1/2 the country will read the report and say 'that all seems fair and dandy', the other 1/2 will read the report and say 'this is a steaming pile of do-do and nothing more than a *leftie attack on the government/establishment cover-up (whichever way it goes)' Still it will fill newspapers and tv news for the next 4 years.
> 
> But anyway, tell us, what would you do from here? Or will you just take great delight telling us that you wouldn't do whatever the government decide to do, thus putting yourself in the position of being able to say 'told you so' or 'well, they were lucky this time, but it's because of the scientists and not Boris and his decision making'.
> 
> How would you handle the upcoming date of June 21st, bearing in my mind you don't know what is around the corner?



I ask Boris what he was thinking of doing. Then do the opposite.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (12 Jun 2021)

Rocky said:


> There'll always be critics. But some critics are better informed than others. Evidence from the autumn suggests that it was not just hindsight that tells us the lockdown was too late.
> 
> Forecasting science is predicated on learning from mistakes and improving the prediction model. That is the same for policy making. The first stage in that is admitting when mistakes were made and not blaming 'the scientists'.



I wonder if, when the enquiry gets underway we will be more aware of the multi-faceted inputs into the Gov's decision making process?

Criticism thus far has generally pivoted on the responses according to the available 'science' which is obviously a major driver but not the only one. 

In addition there would have been multiple inputs from law enforcement agencies, constitutional legal experts, finance agencies, representatives from major business bodies, civil liberties groups, the Opposition, leaders of the other UK countries, regional politicians etc, etc.

A far more complex scenario to manage than the science only.


----------



## Rocky (12 Jun 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Ignoring the rather silly (imo) 'chubby mates' comment we've already been around the block on the non-comparables aspect of the UK vs Australia - no two nation's identities are exactly comparable and especially these two.
> 
> Time to move on a tad?


Well no. We’ve made some incredibly strange decisions as a country. For example mask wearing in schools. It’s now compulsory in corridors but not lessons. 15 year old next door has just tested positive and caught it from the pupil behind her in computing class. Pupil to the left also has. Why is Williamson rolling back on mask wearing when the delta strain is hitting the unvaccinated? Is it to appease his back benchers like Swayne, Baker and others?


----------



## vickster (12 Jun 2021)

What do the teaching unions say about masks in classes, for or against, they like to speak out? Assuming they even think schools should be open now?


----------



## Rocky (12 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> What do the teaching unions say about masks in classes, for or against, they like to speak out?


The unions, as I recall, wrote to the government asking for them to remain in place.


----------



## Craig the cyclist (12 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I ask Boris what he was thinking of doing. Then do the opposite.



Rolling out a hugely successful vaccination programme is _*not*_ something you would have done? That seems a bit reckless doesn't it?


----------



## Pale Rider (12 Jun 2021)

I doubt there's much public appetite for an inquiry - except among those who want another stick with which to beat Boris.

The public understands we never attempted to 100% follow the science, which in any case was far from perfect.

The public also understands the many and various reasons why we didn't follow that science.

Better to focus resources and where we are and where we might be going, rather then endlessly raking over what's done.


----------



## Ajax Bay (12 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> But some countries have fared better than others.
> Australia for example lock down whole cities on half a dozen cases. Boris and chubby mates look a million miles from learning that lesson.





kingrollo said:


> You want to get over to the daily mail site sharpish then.





kingrollo said:


> Ok - back to backslapping.
> Well done Boris you've done really well. Damn shame we have one the worst death rates....yeah but let's move along.....
> That ok Mate ?





kingrollo said:


> I ask Boris what he was thinking of doing. Then do the opposite.


Welcome back @kingrollo ! It'd be great if you could add a bit more substance to your posts so we have an idea of what you think.
Why do you think the UK has one of the worst death rates? Do you think that the UK should have "locked down whole cities on half a dozen cases"? I have no idea who you probably unfairly and certainly impolitely describe as chubby. What is the lesson you think they have not learned?


----------



## Ajax Bay (12 Jun 2021)

Rocky said:


> Well no. We’ve made some incredibly strange decisions as a country. For example mask wearing in schools. It’s now compulsory in corridors but not lessons. 15 year old next door has just tested positive and caught it from the pupil behind her in computing class. Pupil to the left also has. Why is Williamson rolling back on mask wearing when the delta strain is hitting the unvaccinated? Is it to appease his back benchers like Swayne, Baker and others?


Pupils are under control in lessons, in the classroom, but they aren't in other indoor or confined places, like corridors or school buses.
Doubt you know how the girl next door caught it. You have shared her supposition: maybe she caught it elsewhere and then infected her adjacent pupils. Maybe it was snogging behind the bike sheds.
I hope they've all been doing their twice weekly lateral flow tests properly.
The balance of benefit of mask wearing while teaching/learning is directly under way is one which there is a range of judgements.
Dr Gavin Morgan, an expert in education psychology at UCL who sits on the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours, known as SPI-B, said:
“From a psychological point of view, I don’t think [face masks in the classroom] are a good thing,
“Masks are negative, they hide emotions and feelings and they are an impediment to communication.
“We want to encourage children to communicate, to share ideas, to problem solve - and that is all clearly impeded by masks”.
Dr Morgan said SPI-B had warned (SAGE and thus ministers) of the “emotional cost” masks posed to school children and also raised concerns about the impact masks would have on children’s ability to interact and play with one another.
So to suggest that this is a policy which has been adopted to mollify the ire of random Tory back benchers is free (but errant) speech.


----------



## classic33 (12 Jun 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Ignoring the rather silly (imo) 'chubby mates' comment we've already been around the block on the non-comparables aspect of the UK vs Australia - no two nation's identities are exactly comparable and especially these two.
> 
> Time to move on a tad?


Ireland introduced an inter-County travel ban, on top of the 2, later 5 & then 10km travel limit. 

Essential and commercial travel only and then only if you provide a negative test result. Two island nations, handling travel and entry into the country in very different ways.

And the case rate in Ireland is acknowledged as being on the increase, over the last few days. Most of the new variant.


----------



## Rocky (12 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Pupils are under control in lessons, in the classroom, but they aren't in other indoor or confined places, like corridors or school buses.
> Doubt you know how the girl next door caught it. You have shared her supposition: maybe she caught it elsewhere and then infected her adjacent pupils. Maybe it was snogging behind the bike sheds.
> I hope they've all been doing their twice weekly lateral flow tests properly.
> The balance of benefit of mask wearing while teaching/learning is directly under way is one which there is a range of judgements.
> ...


The pattern of infection within that particular class would strongly suggest it was from the pupils breathing the same air. Plus I'm not sure all children are under control in the classroom and thinking back 50 years to when I was at school, there was certainly a lot of shouting. I'm sure it hasn't changed.

One of the problem with the lateral flow tests is that they are supposed to do one of their two tests on a Sunday evening. The parents of the initial contact delayed this till Monday evening and so it is highly likely that the original case was infectious and infecting others for the whole school day.

I am familiar with Morgan's work but the psychological damage from infection is huge, as is the damage caused by 10 days isolation for all of the contacts, even if they are not shown to be infected.

I won't mention names but my wife of 34 years is an academic and has been researching mask wearing (and advocating their use) since the beginning of March last year. She has published in the BMJ, Lancet and other high impact peer-reviewed journals. I think the science, particularly, now aerosol scientists are being listened to, is incontrovertible. Of course, as with all medical/clinical interventions, the are risks and harms to go with the benefits.


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## Ajax Bay (12 Jun 2021)

Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing
Table 6 (p15) suggests that around 1% of Delta cases result in hospitalisation with an overnight stay (taking an average of the last two rows) and seems to be regardless of vaccination status.
Table 18 (p51) vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease: Alpha 1 dose 50%, 2 doses 88%; Delta 33% and 81%.
Let's assume no one with a second dose goes to hospital (81% true) and no children go to hospital either (the latter is mostly the case).
About 12M adults O/16, haven't had their first jab yet. A further 12M have only had one so far and of those, 67% are susceptible, so 8M. Take away from that 20M (12M + 8M) say 40% or 8M who've been previously infected so total 12M susceptible pool. 10% catch it and 1% of those go to hospital = 12,000. Spread over (say) 30 days either side of peak that'd suggest (planning figures) = 400pd, peaking at less than 800pd. (NB Latest figure is 187 on 8 Jun.)
Put it this way, it's not going to be in the thousands, and the NHS can handle it (see Test 2).
If the government chose to delay Phase 4 relaxation this would reduce the numbers (because R would stay lower longer for NPI reasons and in the same period another 6M (in a fortnight) would get a first dose, thus reducing the susceptible population).
Note that if any relaxation is delayed too long, there's a danger that the subsequent 'exit wave' will be pushed into the autumn, cooler conditions and autumn snuffle months.
Here's another treatment (note this is hospital admissions per week):


----------



## kingrollo (12 Jun 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> I doubt there's much public appetite for an inquiry - except among those who want another stick with which to beat Boris.
> 
> The public understands we never attempted to 100% follow the science, which in any case was far from perfect.
> 
> ...



Another stick - Lol 

The blokes an elitist middle class chump. Kept in power by the rich and powerful so long as he does there bidding.


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## midlife (12 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing
> Table 6 (p15) suggests that around 1% of Delta cases result in hospitalisation with an overnight stay (taking an average of the last two rows) and seems to be regardless of vaccination status.
> Table 18 (p51) vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease: Alpha 1 dose 50%, 2 doses 88%; Delta 33% and 81%.
> Let's assume no one with a second dose goes to hospital (81% true) and no children go to hospital either (the latter is mostly the case).
> ...



I'm sure I read yesterday that out of 42 delta covid deaths 12 had both vaccinations and 7 deaths had one vaccination. 

I guess this means that age and co- morbidity still a big factor if the double vaccination deaths were an older cohort.


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## Milzy (12 Jun 2021)

Can somebody more qualified tell me what they make of this because it looks BS to me.
direct from gov website 

The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively. This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age groups, such that immunisation failures account for more serious illness than unvaccinated individuals. This is discussed further in paragraphs 55 and 56.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ing_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf


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## Ajax Bay (12 Jun 2021)

midlife said:


> I guess this means that age and co- morbidity still a big factor if the double vaccination deaths were an older cohort.


And almost cross-posted with @Milzy - HTH (See the blue and orange in the graph above for the idea.)
Regrettably, the majority of those who die within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test and/or have COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate from now on will be those who had received their second dose 14+ days before testing positive. I hope people take this into account before they hug their gran.
If full vaccination gives 90% protection against death but that cohort's IFR is 1300 times higher than reference, then the IFR is still 130 times higher. (Table in quote)


Ajax Bay said:


> [From USA CDC data - mainly Alpha VoC)


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## Pale Rider (12 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> elitist middle class chump



I'll have you know we have a long and much loved tradition of elitist middle class chumps in the UK.


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## Milzy (12 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> And almost cross-posted with @Milzy - HTH (See the blue and orange in the graph above for the idea.)
> Regrettably, the majority of those who die within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test and/or have COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate from now on will be those who had received their second dose 14+ days before testing positive. I hope people take this into account before they hug their gran.
> If full vaccination gives 90% protection against death but that cohort's IFR is 1300 times higher than reference, then the IFR is still 130 times higher. (Table in quote)





Ajax Bay said:


> And almost cross-posted with @Milzy - HTH (See the blue and orange in the graph above for the idea.)
> Regrettably, the majority of those who die within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test and/or have COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate from now on will be those who had received their second dose 14+ days before testing positive. I hope people take this into account before they hug their gran.
> If full vaccination gives 90% protection against death but that cohort's IFR is 1300 times higher than reference, then the IFR is still 130 times higher. (Table in quote)


so would you say it’s not worth having 2 vaccinations then?


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## newfhouse (12 Jun 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Fair enough, and exactly the reason that the inquiry will be ultimately pointless. 1/2 the country will read the report and say 'that all seems fair and dandy', the other 1/2 will read the report and say 'this is a steaming pile of do-do and nothing more than a *leftie attack on the government/establishment cover-up (whichever way it goes)' Still it will fill newspapers and tv news for the next 4 years.





Pale Rider said:


> Better to focus resources and where we are and where we might be going, rather then endlessly raking over what's done.


There are two reasons to hold an inquiry. First, and the part that will undoubtedly become mired in politics, was the best advice available at the time followed, and if not, why not? Second, to determine what needs changing to ensure a more effective response to the next virus / variant. 



Craig the cyclist said:


> But anyway, tell us, what would you do from here? Or will you just take great delight telling us that you wouldn't do whatever the government decide to do, thus putting yourself in the position of being able to say 'told you so' or 'well, they were lucky this time, but it's because of the scientists and not Boris and his decision making'.


It may surprise you that I don’t see this as left/right politics. It’s a matter of competence, decisiveness and integrity. Scientific and medical advisers with a good record of getting it right should be listened to, and any decision to ignore them or delay implementation should be made in the open and require justification.



Craig the cyclist said:


> How would you handle the upcoming date of June 21st, bearing in my mind you don't know what is around the corner?


Personally? I will carry on exactly as I am, avoiding unnecessary contact outside my family and work team. I’m not the one that set a date and failed to discourage the media from calling it Freedom Day.


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## midlife (12 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> so would you say it’s not worth having 2 vaccinations then?



Certainly is.... That's why there is a rush on to get second doses done. Its just that if you are old with Co morbidities the odds of surviving covid even with two doses are less than younger and fitter individuals with one dose.


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## Ajax Bay (12 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> so would you say it’s not worth having 2 vaccinations then?


It's absolutely worth having both doses of a two dose vaccination (knew someone would give a briefer response!) Unless you are under 16 when the maths is less one-sided, from the individual's point of view.
The first dose will (within a confidence interval) give one 33% protection against the Delta VoC after (+14) the first dose. A second dose will up that to 81%.
This reduces the chances of the individual of being infected with symptoms by that percentage, and by larger percentage against hospitalisation.
In addition, from a community PoV, (81-33=) 48% less symptomatic illness means less transmission/spread of the virus to others: a good thing.
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation
Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the Delta variant: one dose = 33%, two doses = 81%


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## PK99 (12 Jun 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> I'll have you know we have a long and much loved tradition of elitist middle class chumps in the UK.



A goodly proportion of senior Labour figures would fit that descripion


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## lane (12 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> One thing I observe here, more generally on the InterWeb, and in the real world, is a misunderstanding of how science works.
> 
> Many non scientists appear to think science works through certainty and consensus. Scientists know it works through uncertainty and challenge.



I don't know if that is aimed at me, but I do understand that. I think one of the biggest failings - not by the scientific community as a whole - but specifically those advising the Government was not to take action on some issues until the science backed it up - when it was fairly bloody obvious that it was likely to be the case - and there was sod all downside to taking action ahead of the science. I would specifically reference Dr Campbell who I watch on U tube - who has made many correct calls in advance of any action being taken, based on the balance of probabilities. 

One would hope the inquiry would learn some of these lessons and changes will be made in future.


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## lane (12 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Pupils are under control in lessons, in the classroom, but they aren't in other indoor or confined places, like corridors or school buses.
> Doubt you know how the girl next door caught it. You have shared her supposition: maybe she caught it elsewhere and then infected her adjacent pupils. Maybe it was snogging behind the bike sheds.
> I hope they've all been doing their twice weekly lateral flow tests properly.
> The balance of benefit of mask wearing while teaching/learning is directly under way is one which there is a range of judgements.
> ...



Oh come on, obviously there are downsides to masks in classrooms but the policy is without doubt driven by Tory back bench antipathy. My son goes to a college where they all wear masks in classrooms and elsewhere - the policy is simple no mask no entry. 2,000 16-19 year olds with very few cases in the college. Two schools I worked at plus where my daughter goes - less than 2,000 pupils loads more cases.


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## Milzy (12 Jun 2021)

And the report on the government websites..? Points 31 and 56..?


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## lane (12 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> And the report on the government websites..? Points 31 and 56..?


????????


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## neil_merseyside (12 Jun 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> I'll have you know we have a long and much loved tradition of elitist middle class chumps in the UK.


From most political parties


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## PK99 (12 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> I don't know if that is aimed at me, but I do understand that. I think one of the biggest failings - not by the scientific community as a whole - but specifically those advising the Government was not to take action on some issues until the science backed it up - when it was fairly bloody obvious that it was likely to be the case - and there was sod all downside to taking action ahead of the science. I would specifically reference Dr Campbell who I watch on U tube - who has made many correct calls in advance of any action being taken, based on the balance of probabilities.
> 
> One would hope the inquiry would learn some of these lessons and changes will be made in future.



Not directed at anyone just an observation. 

It is clear that at the start, the scientific advice was wrong.

Way way way upthread I linked to a Gresham College lecture by Whitty on Pandemic control and preparedness from 2018.

There is a 1:1 correlation between what he described as the best response and the UK response in 2020. GovUK was following the Science. The Science was wrong as it was not a Flu Pandemic and transmission etc are different. (Points well rehearsed up thread)

Does that make Whitty et al culpable for wrong advice? 
Or Hancock et al culpable for not rejecting the Science and making a Political and more restrictive decision?

I would argue neither.

Science does not always get it right.


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## Milzy (12 Jun 2021)

Some idiots on Facebook think loads are dying after two doses not realising that the biggest percentage of the population with 2 doses are the elderly so they can be dying of old age, other medical conditions & falls etc. It’s just simple maths, how can they be so blind?


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## classic33 (12 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> Some idiots on Facebook think loads are dying after two doses not realising that the biggest percentage of the population with 2 doses are the elderly so they can be dying of old age, other medical conditions & falls etc. It’s just simple maths, how can they be so blind?


I'd have had both jabs a month ago, I'm not that old. How many on here have had both jabs, and what age brackets do they fall into.


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## kingrollo (12 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> Not directed at anyone just an observation.
> 
> It is clear that at the start, the scientific advice was wrong.
> 
> ...




Seem to remember the scientists urging a circuit breaker lockdown in September...Ignored not followed.


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## lane (12 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing
> Table 6 (p15) suggests that around 1% of Delta cases result in hospitalisation with an overnight stay (taking an average of the last two rows) and seems to be regardless of vaccination status.
> Table 18 (p51) vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease: Alpha 1 dose 50%, 2 doses 88%; Delta 33% and 81%.
> Let's assume no one with a second dose goes to hospital (81% true) and no children go to hospital either (the latter is mostly the case).
> ...



Very interesting analysis. What have you based the 10% catch it on - outcomes will be very sensitive to changes in that figure.


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## Ajax Bay (12 Jun 2021)

Milzy said:


> loads are dying after two doses not realising that the biggest percentage of the population with 2 doses are the elderly so they can be dying of old age, other medical conditions & falls etc. It’s just simple maths, how can they be so blind?


@Milzy the data etc I discussed upthread are all COVID-19 related.
On average (2015-2019) April - November in UK about *9000 die every week, all causes*. At present about (most recent 7-day average) 52 per week are, tragically, people dying with or of COVID-19 (defined by a positive test no more than 28 days before). Hundreds of others are dying for other reasons (you listed some). In fact the overall number (including 'COVID-19') dying each week in UK has been below average every week since mid-March - see CEBM chart below.
As for blindness, I think the lady on the Clapham omnibus might reasonable think: vaccinated equals protection against death from COVID-19. It's counterintuitive to do the maths (and most people couldn't be bothered) and 'open one's eyes' to the hard truth. It may initially appear to some as BS. 


Milzy said:


> it looks BS to me: "The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively."


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## lane (12 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> And almost cross-posted with @Milzy - HTH (See the blue and orange in the graph above for the idea.)
> Regrettably, the majority of those who die within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test and/or have COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate from now on will be those who had received their second dose 14+ days before testing positive. I hope people take this into account before they hug their gran.
> If full vaccination gives 90% protection against death but that cohort's IFR is 1300 times higher than reference, then the IFR is still 130 times higher. (Table in quote)



Is this correct? 

"Table 18 (p51) vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease: Alpha 1 dose 50%, 2 doses 88%; Delta 33% and 81%."

From what I understand (certainly from what I have heard from various sources) the risk of death will be reduced further than the risk of symptomatic disease? Therefore you may have a 20% chance of symptomatic disease and _previously _you would then in my age group have had 440x more chance of death than the reference group - but does not the vaccine as well as reducing the chance of symptomatic disease ALSO reduce the 440x figure to some lower figure?


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## Ajax Bay (12 Jun 2021)

The figures quoted in the PHE VoC Technical Brief are protection against symptomatic disease (for all ages: whether there is variation with age is uncertain), and vaccines offer comparitively less protection (particularly after only one dose) against the Delta VoC. For example two doses (+14 days) is 81%. The percentage protection against hospitalisation (aka "serious disease") is higher: I used 90% but elsewhere I've read 90+%, and that figure must depend on age as you surmise. The table I shared was a CDC one from the summer: I have not seen similar for this post-vaccination world. We haven't got IFR figures against the Delta VoC with any degree of uncertainty, because so far we haven't got sufficient data (thank goodness, though give it a few weeks), but a higher hospitalisation rate (cf Alpha VoC) has been reported (moderate uncertainty).


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## lane (12 Jun 2021)

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/two-doses-of-pfizer-vaccine-reduces-risk-of-death-by-97-per-cent/

I realise that the actual percentages will have changed due to India variant. But to me the article and the text I have extracted below, suggest that it is not only the reduction in symptomatic disease that represents the reduction in risk of death. There is an added layer of protection once you contract symptomatic disease. Previously this was 97% overall reduction in the chance of death. So un-vaccinated chance was 1,300x but after both doses would be 39x higher (1,300*.03) not the 130x you quote. With the India variant the truth presumably lies somewhere between the two. 

However to say that it will mainly be the older double vaccinated that will be dieing must depend upon the respective chances of infection compared to younger cohorts (which will presumably be higher). 

*Extract from article*

"Combining this with the estimated protection from getting the virus, it is equivalent to an estimated 97 per cent protection against death in people who have had both doses of Pfizer, PHE added.

Results shows that COVID-19 cases who had had a single dose of either the Pfizer or the AstraZeneca vaccines had similar levels of protection against mortality – at 44 per cent and 55 per cent respectively – compared with people who had not had a coronavirus vaccine.

When they took into account the protection the jab provided against catching the coronavirus, PHE said this is equivalent to approximately 80 per cent protection against death in people who have had a single jab."


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## Ajax Bay (12 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Very interesting analysis. What have you based the 10% catch it on - outcomes will be very sensitive to changes in that figure.


I looked at the ONS Infection Survey for early November, the peak of that build-up 'wave' for the number they estimated had COVID-19 (including asymptomatic): about 1.2% of the population in the that week, and average length of infectious illness 14 days (so 0.6% 'new'). The Warwick modelling (fed into SPI-M) suggests that the third wave might last 8 weeks (from 1 June say) - the similar period in the autumn is/was late Sep to late Nov) - multiplying up gives 4.8%. I anticipate the restrictions in July will not be as stringent as in November last year so ceteris paribus (which they aren't) and to allow for optimism bias I doubled that to use 10% as the proportion who'll get infected. You are absolutely right to say that the outcome will be sensitive to that figure, or to put it another way (and state the obvious), the more people who get infected, the worse the hospitalisations will be.
[By all means flag these analyses and use them as a stick to beat me in late August. You may recall I shared an assessment of how swiftly the hospital bed occupancy would fall by the end of April. I was way too pessimistic: they fell much faster.]
However that 'worse' might be a healthcare load the NHS can sustain, and at the same time the economy can regrow (and inter alia fund the NHS). I obviously don't have enough data to even guess what the best decision for the country is, nor the political insight and expertise. I suspect that the key political risk is if Phase 4 is confirmed for 21 Jun and goes ahead but in July the healthcare strain demands reaction: a retrograde step which is a key promise to the people that needs to be avoided.
Will we hear the clamour of approval from the usual suspects if the Government decides to set a revised date? I shall not be holding my breath.


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## lane (13 Jun 2021)

It looks as though the 21st will be delayed and I must say I am surprised, Boris had perhaps learnt something from the past events. 

I did note that numbers in hospital decreased as you suggested or even more quickly - at the time you made the prediction I was sceptical.


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## kingrollo (13 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> It looks as though the 21st will be delayed and I must say I am surprised, Boris had perhaps learnt something from the past events.
> 
> I did note that numbers in hospital decreased as you suggested or even more quickly - at the time you made the prediction I was sceptical.



What if we delay a month and the numbers keep increasing - a not unprobable scenario IMO.

Surprised vaccine passports was dumped as an idea tbh.


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## Ajax Bay (13 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> What if we delay a month and the numbers keep increasing - a not unprobable scenario IMO.
> Surprised vaccine passports was dumped as an idea tbh.


If a new date is set as 'no earlier than' 19 July that will coincide with schools breaking up as well.
Numbers of cases are going to increase for a month: leave the 'not unprobable' out of it: but key is the effect on hospital admissions and bed occupancy. I see a delay as offering two things: more certainty on the effect of the Delta VoC (compared to the dominant Alpha VoC when the relaxation plan was shared on 22 Feb); and another 2.5M each week first vaccinations and 1M a week second doses.
I note that the Government's '4 tests' have stood the test of time, with the fourth one pointing up the uncertainty of what new variants might throw at us, just as the more transmissible Alpha VoC emergence created uncertainty and derailled the plans last autumn.
Two weeks might be 'enough'.
There is some jeopardy, getting minimal airing, that delaying the final relaxation much longer risks pushing the 'exit wave', albeit one with a lower hospitalisation peak, into the autumn. Let's get this done, to parody a phrase ringing around a year ago.
Certificates of vaccination for overseas travel seem an entirely reasonable proposition and doubt they have been 'dumped'. The idea of certification for use within UK has profound liberty issues, not least because half the population haven't access to vaccination (yet) - but maybe one for the 'vaccine' thread.


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## Wobblers (13 Jun 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> I doubt there's much public appetite for an inquiry - except among those who want another stick with which to beat Boris.
> 
> The public understands we never attempted to 100% follow the science, which in any case was far from perfect.
> 
> ...



We have been extraordinarily lucky: CV19 is a moderately transmittable disease with a low (below 1%) fatality rate. There are microbes out there which are considerably worse: bird flu for example. Rather than being a false alarm, it's still causing sporadic cases in SE Asia. It kills over half of those it infects. Fortunately it's not significantly transmittable. So far. Because the part of the flu genome that controls transmittability is different from that part controlling virulence. We're one small mutation away from something far worse.

It is inevitable that there will be future pandemics. There is a very good chance that the next one will be worse than CV19. Sadly, the performance of the UK in the last 18 months suggests that we'd end up with millions dead. This is an existential threat. _Next time, we have to do better_.

An inquiry of some sort is not merely desirable, it is *essential*. This is something that is beyond petty party point scoring. I want to see something that is not focussed on blame but rather to determine what mistakes were made and what successes were achieved - including the experience of other countries. The thrust should be to answer the question "How might we best preapre for ,and deal with, a future pandemic?".

We can't afford to let that goal be buried by a desire to dish out blame for political motives. But neither can we afford to brush it under the carpet - which is also politically motivated.


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## Wobblers (13 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing
> Table 6 (p15) suggests that around 1% of Delta cases result in hospitalisation with an overnight stay (taking an average of the last two rows) and seems to be regardless of vaccination status.
> Table 18 (p51) vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease: Alpha 1 dose 50%, 2 doses 88%; Delta 33% and 81%.
> Let's assume no one with a second dose goes to hospital (81% true) and no children go to hospital either (the latter is mostly the case).
> ...



You've made a critical error in one rather large assumption:


> Let's assume no one with a second dose goes to hospital (81% true)


This is to ignore a very large population: over 30 million. From these figures, 19% will get the delta variant. That's 6 million people catching CV19. 1% of those will go on to require hospitalisation: 60,000. Added to the 12,000 you calculated above, we can expect 72,000 hospitalsations - 6 times your figures. The rates will therefore also be 6 times greater. Again, using your planning assumptions, that suggests a peak of 4,800 per day.

You note that the hospitalsation rate is currently below 200 pd. True, but we're only in the beginnings of this third wave. We are some way off the peak.


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## Ajax Bay (13 Jun 2021)

McWobble said:


> You've made a critical error in one rather large assumption:
> This is to ignore a very large population: over 30 million. From these figures, 19% *will get* the delta variant. That's 6 million people catching CV19. 1% of those will go on to require hospitalisation: 60,000. Added to the 12,000 you calculated above, we can expect 72,000 hospitalsations - 6 times your figures. The rates will therefore also be 6 times greater. Again, using your planning assumptions, that suggests a peak of 4,800 per day.


Thank you for having a look at that. Perhaps I might just rework your figures and see how many I should add (your figures are awry and I've emboldened the fallacy). So far there are less than 5M cumulative/total UK cases shown on the gov.uk dashboard. Separate ONS survey data suggests that the actual figure (which includes asymptomatic infection) is twice that so say total 10M (in 15 months). So suggesting 6M will catch it in the next few months is a clear flag that maybe your observation has itself included a "critical error".
Including the fully vaccinated, then.
28.2M (which I had not included in my figures by my stated assumption) have been fully vaccinated (+14 days by 21 Jun).
That vaccine double dose gives them 81% protection against symptomatic disease (against the Delta VoC). So 19% are 'unprotected' = 5.4M.
There's only a 10% chance that that fifth will catch it (another *assumption* that @lane pointed out), so = 540k. The average fraction of those that catch it who end up in hospital is 1% (another *assumption* which I'm not certain is robust, but I've seen quoted), so = 5,400. Spread over 30 days (see previous 'model') 30 days either side of peak that'd suggest (planning figures) = 580pd (400+180), peaking at (estimate) 1160pd. (NB Latest figure is 187pd on 8 Jun and the peak in January was 4,232pd (7-day average).)
Hope I've got that right @McWobble
Average time in hospital is also reduced (assume because the average age is lower, maybe continuing improved therapeutics and also the beneficial effect of one or both doses for very many) which further reduces the admissions > occupancy multiplyer.
To reiterate: "Put it this way, it's not going to be in the thousands, and the NHS can handle it (see Test 2)."
Recently issued Warwick Uni modelling paper which will go through SPI-M to SAGE and inform this evening's No 10 decision meeting.


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## Bromptonaut (13 Jun 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> The latter risks yet more critics using nothing other than hindsight.



What is your point? 

Even if it's only hindsight that makes last Summer's easings look like mistakes (and there's evidence they were not) they represent learning points.


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## classic33 (13 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Thank you for having a look at that. Perhaps I might just rework your figures and see how many I should add (your figures are awry and I've emboldened the fallacy). So far there are less than 5M cumulative/total UK cases shown on the gov.uk dashboard. Separate ONS survey data suggests that the actual figure (which includes asymptomatic infection) is twice that so say total 10M (in 15 months). So suggesting 6M will catch it in the next few months is a clear flag that maybe your observation has itself included a "critical error".
> Including the fully vaccinated, then.
> 28.2M (which I had not included in my figures by my stated assumption) have been fully vaccinated (+14 days by 21 Jun).
> That vaccine double dose gives them 81% protection against symptomatic disease (against the Delta VoC). So 19% are 'unprotected' = 5.4M.
> ...


Local hospital are bothered in case they don't have the staff, able to work, if things get worse. 

On paper they're fine for staff, but that doesn't seem to take into account that they are at the same risk as everyone else. Reducing their numbers.


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## Ajax Bay (13 Jun 2021)

I hope that all hospital staff are fully vaccinated, so not "at the same risk as everyone else" imo: bit more because infectious bods will be coming in, a lot less than all those unvaccinated. And you have a nice low case rate: 32 per 100,000 so less risk than maybe 75% of English/Scottish areas/hospitals. I can understand all hospitals will not welcome (to put it mildly) the third wave: let's hope the peak will stay entirely manageable (for the sake of the staff and the patients with other competing healthcare needs).
The spread of the Delta VoC to Northern Ireland is, thankfully, a lot slower than to Wales and Scotland so vaccination against the Alpha VoC should give an average 88% protection (Pfizer a bit more, AZ a bit less; but most H&SC will have had Pfizer). Against Delta VoC than (only) drops to 81%: still good.


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## mjr (13 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I hope that all hospital staff are fully vaccinated,


Some people cannot be vaccinated.


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## neil_merseyside (13 Jun 2021)

Or how about we half open up on June 21st but only to those with 2nd jab +14 days, slightly discriminatory as yoofs (relative term) haven't had the option yet, but it would allow theatres and other venues to open (OK so nightclubs only to the oldest swinger in town (no not that type of swinger)). This option bridges concern for those in the hostility industry  and those of us at lesser risk wanting to get into big crowds in small venues - I'm not selling this well am I...


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## classic33 (13 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I hope that all hospital staff are fully vaccinated, so not "at the same risk as everyone else" imo: bit more because infectious bods will be coming in, a lot less than all those unvaccinated.





mjr said:


> Some people cannot be vaccinated.


Even if fully vaccinated, it doesn't guarantee not being able to catch it. And in a team of of nurses should one test positive, the others still have to isolate. A much bigger impact than one team member going ill.

As I said on paper, they're fine, they can handle it. Real life is different. And that's what concerns local staff. They're only human after all. People who come into contact with more than most on here.


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## shep (13 Jun 2021)

Be it this month, next month or the month after things will open soon enough and all this speculation and assumption will be immaterial.


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## newfhouse (13 Jun 2021)

shep said:


> Be it this month, next month or the month after things will open soon enough and all this speculation and assumption will be immaterial.


If you own or work in a business that is currently restricted you are probably keener than most for some certainty. “Soon enough” may be too late. For the rest of us, I think you’re right, we can wait.


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## Wobblers (14 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> There's only a 10% chance that that fifth will catch it (another *assumption* that @lane pointed out), so = 540k.



This is worse than an assumption, this 10% factor is an arbitrary fudge factor. Worse, it has no basis on reality.



> So far there are less than 5M cumulative/total UK cases shown on the gov.uk dashboard. Separate ONS survey data suggests that the actual figure (which includes asymptomatic infection) is twice that so say total 10M (in 15 months). So suggesting 6M will catch it in the next few months is a clear flag that maybe your observation has itself included a "critical error".


I assume your 10% is derived from this? This not merely ignores the significant under-reporting known to have taken place, it ignores the fact that the numbers infected are this low due to three lockdowns - two of them being considerably extended. And this, too, with variants that were substantially less transmittable than delta!

The delta variant has a R0 of at least 6, and modelling suggests it may be as high as 8. 85-90% of the population need to have been infected or vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity. With vaccine efficacy of 81% vacination alone cannot achieve this. Moreover, at the moment with 25% of the adult population not being vaccinated and a further 25% still being vulnerable to an extent. Roughly speaking, that means about 45% (minimum) of the UK population is vulnerable [1] - and that's more than sufficient for exponential growth to take place. *Which is exactly what we are seeing*.

The delta variant will only die out when the vulnerable population falls below 10-15%. It will not simply stop when it has infected 10% of those vulnerable to infection. There is no mechanism that will do so! Making the hidden assumption that there is, as you've done, unfortunately has the effect of invalidating any conclusion you might make from your analysis.

Overall, if the hospitalisation fractiion for the vaccinated really is 1% of those who become ill, I'd expect total numbers to be 10-15% lower than my above figure, as the infection rate dies away as herd immunity is reached. However, hosptialisations from those who're unvaccinated or only have had one jab will be significantly higher than your estimate.


[1] Note that I've excluded transmission via breakthrough infections in the vaccinated population here. As I've said, this will be significant.


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## neil_merseyside (14 Jun 2021)

newfhouse said:


> If you own or work in a business that is currently restricted you are probably keener than most for some certainty. “Soon enough” may be too late. For the rest of us, I think you’re right, we can wait.


What price is someone's life [1] and I know what I think matters, but then again I have no sympathy for people/businesses borrowing to the hilt. I've always had a contingency fund from when I first started work, hell Mum insisted I could always pay my way for 6 months without work - rather hard from day one of employment...

[1] be that Covid directly or that hospitals can't do 'usual' stuff.


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## newfhouse (14 Jun 2021)

neil_merseyside said:


> What price is someone's life [1] and I know what I think matters, but then again I have no sympathy for people/businesses borrowing to the hilt. I've always had a contingency fund from when I first started work, hell Mum insisted I could always pay my way for 6 months without work - rather hard from day one of employment...
> 
> [1] be that Covid directly or that hospitals can't do 'usual' stuff.


I wasn’t advocating an immediate removal of the remaining restrictions, and I understand why certainty isn’t possible. I was expressing sympathy for people that worry about their livelihoods. There are still an awful lot of people that have fallen between the cracks in the various support schemes, many through no fault of their own.


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## mjr (14 Jun 2021)

6pm press conference, delayed to reduce competing with football, widely expected to announce four week delay. Example https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/what-time-boris-johnson-announcement-b1865244.html

R rate is 120-140% so it's spreading again and now mostly the delta variant, which hasn't hit hospitals too hard yet but I've heard reports that there are worries about how delta will affect hospitals, both in bed occupancy and in health workers having to isolate, which sounds like gov.uk aren't confident that both the "Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS" and the "assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of the virus" tests are passed just now.

I'm slightly surprised that they seem to be shaping up for a four week delay, rather than a "we'll look again in two weeks but prepare for a further delay".


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## lane (14 Jun 2021)

According to press reports 4 weeks allows another 10m to have second jab so I suspect that is what the Government wants to achieve before fully opening.


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## SpokeyDokey (14 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> According to press reports 4 weeks allows another 10m to have second jab so I suspect that is what the Government wants to achieve before fully opening.


I agree with you but, pre-empting the official announcement, I think 'considering' needs to be inserted before 'fully'.


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## Ajax Bay (14 Jun 2021)

Key other positive of a revised 'no earlier than' (besides an extra 14M doses (split first jab/second jab)) is the reasonable expectation of less uncertainty wrt the Delta VoC, in particular, transmission advantage (cf Alpha VoC: central estimate +1.6) and thus effect on Reff, and in a slowly improving vaccination percentage, any change in the ratio (cf Alpha VoC) between number of symptomatic cases and the number developing serious illness (therefore needing hospitalisation edit: - with significant secondary effects on general health care provision).
Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics
Edit: On the obverse, delay to plaster-ripping risks:

Immunity waning (either from pre-infections in 2020 or from jabs)
Newer worse variants from abroad or domestic
Voluntary NPIs weaken (eg wfh back to places of work, general social mixing, use of public transport, poor adherence to self-isolation)


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## mjr (14 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Voluntary NPIs weaken (eg wfh back to places of work, general social mixing, use of public transport, poor adherence to self-isolation)


I suspect 3 of those 4 is already happening anyway thanks to euro2020 and people travelling to big "fanparks" that pretty much look like a clothed orgy whenever a goal goes in. What geniuses thought it was a good idea to hold large gatherings of fans of a sport known for alcohol and a few sudden short extreme highs amidst long doldrums, instead of encouraging smaller gatherings in front of big screens in beer gardens?


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## matticus (14 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> euro2020 and people travelling to big "fanparks" that pretty much look like a clothed orgy whenever a goal goes in.


Are they doing fan parks?? Seriously?? 

(BTW I doubt they are quite as much fun as a "clothed orgy"  )


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## lane (14 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> I suspect 3 of those 4 is already happening anyway thanks to euro2020 and people travelling to big "fanparks" that pretty much look like a clothed orgy whenever a goal goes in. What geniuses thought it was a good idea to hold large gatherings of fans of a sport known for alcohol and a few sudden short extreme highs amidst long doldrums, instead of encouraging smaller gatherings in front of big screens in beer gardens?



Which 1 of the 4 don't you think is happening?


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## mjr (14 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Which 1 of the 4 don't you think is happening?


I don't think euro2020 is causing people to go to the office instead of working from home. At least, not directly, but I guess some bosses may be suspicious that people working from home have a TV visible and so demand they go into the office where they can be forced to concentrate (as if).


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## mjr (14 Jun 2021)

matticus said:


> Are they doing fan parks?? Seriously??


Yes. TV this morning showed police being called to one after its very drunk inhabitants decided to try marching on (well, staggering to) the town centre to celebrate.

Here's Glasgow's one being called a "covid gateway event" but apparently in a positive way (and no, not positive tests): https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/euro-fan-zone-glasgow-leitch-20791044


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## lane (14 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> I don't think euro2020 is causing people to go to the office instead of working from home. At least, not directly, but I guess some bosses may be suspicious that people working from home have a TV visible and so demand they go into the office where they can be forced to concentrate (as if).


 Probably not but there is a definite drift back to the office, presumably for other reasons.


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## lane (14 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> Yes. TV this morning showed police being called to one after its very drunk inhabitants decided to try marching on (well, staggering to) the town centre to celebrate.
> 
> Here's Glasgow's one being called a "covid gateway event" but apparently in a positive way (and no, not positive tests): https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/euro-fan-zone-glasgow-leitch-20791044



Is this an attempt to keep people outside rather than gathering indoors maybe?


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## Johnno260 (14 Jun 2021)

I see there are people in London marching in protest against the extension.

Even if it’s an overreaction the government is criticized either way, and I know some of those entitled things in London they wouldn’t be happy with anything.


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## matticus (14 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> Yes. TV this morning showed police being called to one after its very drunk inhabitants decided to try marching on (well, staggering to) the town centre to celebrate.
> 
> Here's Glasgow's one being called a "covid gateway event" but apparently in a positive way (and no, not positive tests): https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/euro-fan-zone-glasgow-leitch-20791044


Hmm. Sounds thought-through, but not very convincing. The headline below is unfortunate:

Nicola Sturgeon bans car sharing and household gatherings across Scotland as pubs hit with curfew
Glasgow Live


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## mjr (14 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Is this an attempt to keep people outside rather than gathering indoors maybe?


That's not been an argument I've read and it wouldn't make sense to me: if the weather is good, people would be outside anyways; if the weather is poor, then I bet the fanparks will be pretty empty.

It might have been better to help pubs get outdoor big screens and possibly ban indoor screenings. As it is, these fanparks are probably further harming pub incomes.

PM press conference text now online (missing where he said "company" instead of "country" once  ) https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-at-coronavirus-press-conference-14-june-2021

Not there yet is the bit that surprised me, where I think CMO Whitty basically declared two tests failed due to the different behaviour of the delta variant, rather than merely being uncertain.


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## lane (15 Jun 2021)

Prof Graham Medley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the numbers of people dying from coronavirus would rise.
"The question is really as to what level they will rise," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
"It is possible we could end up with a situation whereby the numbers of people going to hospital really mean that the government have to take some kind of action that they don't want to."

Meanwhile Boris insists July unlocking will go ahead. 

Same old same old.

Meanwhile Give makes a bit more sense 

"One can never predict the future with perfect confidence," he told BBC Breakfast.
"But insofar as we can be confident about anything in this complex world, we can be confident that the increased level of vaccination that we will have by 19 July should allow us to further relax restrictions."


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## mjr (15 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Meanwhile Give makes a bit more sense
> 
> "One can never predict the future with perfect confidence," he told BBC Breakfast.
> "But insofar as we can be confident about anything in this complex world, we can be confident that the increased level of vaccination that we will have by 19 July should allow us to further relax restrictions."


For some reason, these words came to mind: I think the people in this country have had enough of this government, saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong. Because these people are the same ones who got consistently wrong what was happening.


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## roubaixtuesday (15 Jun 2021)

G7 leaves a lasting legacy?


View: https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1404820285384282120


(could equally be down to tourists, or some other reason TBF)


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## mjr (15 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> G7 leaves a lasting legacy?
> 
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1404820285384282120
> ...



Does Cornwall get that many more tourists than Devon or the S/E beaches?


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## Ajax Bay (15 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Prof Graham Medley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the numbers of people dying from coronavirus would rise.
> "The question is really as to what level they will rise," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
> "It is possible we could end up with a situation whereby the numbers of people going to hospital really mean that the government have to take some kind of action that they don't want to."
> Meanwhile Boris insists July unlocking will go ahead. Same old same old.


The Prof speaks entire truth and sense: first deaths: "the numbers of people dying from coronavirus will rise" - NSS
"The question is really as to what level they will rise," and what is the deduction from that suggested "real question"?
Regrettably the daily death rate will still be rising on 12 July, in fact (well not yet fact) I reckon cases will still be rising so deaths will not peak till "no earlier than" 1 Aug. Do you think that a second derivative should be the metric for deciding to maintain restrictions, or would the number itself be better: below a threshold? The tragic death rate is a lagging indicator and therefore not useful for forward planning.
People will die in UK with or of COVID-19 nearly every day for the next few years. Are you recommending no fornication unless from the same household till then?
Second , admissions: "It is possible we could end up with a situation whereby the numbers of people going to hospital really mean that the government have to take some kind of action that they don't want to."
Of course it's possible. In fact that's exactly what has just happened! What deduction do you think we should draw? The issue is the adverse affect on the NHS, its staff and all the other healthcare provision. Would it be worth setting a threshold for daily hospital admissions on 12 Jul? What figure do you think the good Professor Medley would suggest? Is below 2000 admissions a day "OK"?
In the dog days of August the admission rate dropped below 100. It's currently about 150-200 (but there's been no update for several days). Peak on 9 Jan was 4232pd, 8 days after daily by specimen cases peaked on 1 Jan at 61,241.
If, in Jan, we'd been at the same state of national vaccination as we will be by mid Jul, about 2500 of those would not have presented to hospital. (65% were in JCVI Gps 1-9 and they have 90+% protection against severe illness: 4232x 0.65x 0.9 = 2475.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...but-charts-show-right-delay-reopening-england
I think the more useful comparative measure we can do from the dashboard data henceforth is hospital occupancy:

The more people there are in hospital, the more people are going to be dying.
Fundamentally it's having too high a level of hospital occupancy where things start unravelling.
"Meanwhile" the PM did not "insist" Phase 4 of the four phase relaxation plan "will go ahead in July". For no apparent reason, you are misrepresenting what he said and the caveats he shared. He clearly fervently hoped it would be a 'terminus', but "insist": not what I heard. Go and review the briefing and Q&A and report back.


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## lane (15 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The Prof speaks entire truth and sense: first deaths: "the numbers of people dying from coronavirus will rise" - NSS
> "The question is really as to what level they will rise," and what is the deduction from that suggested "real question"?
> Regrettably the daily death rate will still be rising on 12 July, in fact (well not yet fact) I reckon cases will still be rising so deaths will not peak till "no earlier than" 1 Aug. Do you think that a second derivative should be the metric for deciding to maintain restrictions, or would the number itself be better: below a threshold? The tragic death rate is a lagging indicator and therefore not useful for forward planning.
> People will die in UK with or of COVID-19 nearly every day for the next few years. Are you recommending no fornication unless from the same household till then?
> ...



Sorry my bad - the " Meanwhile Boris insists July unlocking will go ahead" was quote from the news report I was quoting - I don't think my post made that clear.


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## matticus (16 Jun 2021)

A month ago some people were adamant that Boris would go ahead with relaxations on June 21st, no matter what the data showed. So write what you like!


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## mjr (16 Jun 2021)

matticus said:


> A month ago some people were adamant that Boris would go ahead with relaxations on June 21st, no matter what the data showed. So write what you like!


No, a month ago we were criticising the 17th(?) May step and saying it should lead to postponement of the 21 June one. I won't say "I told you so" oh whoops(!)


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## roubaixtuesday (16 Jun 2021)

matticus said:


> A month ago some people were adamant that Boris would go ahead with relaxations on June 21st, no matter what the data showed. So write what you like!



Well, I think you should name the "some people" who said that & link to their posts. 

Otherwise some people (not me, oh no, never) might think you just made that up.

What is worth noting is that barely a week before the announcement, Johnson trumpeted that he saw nothing in the data to suggest a delay was necessary. The data continued exactly as expected, and a delay duly followed.


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## shep (16 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> No, a month ago we were criticising the 17th(?) May step and saying it should lead to postponement of the 21 June one. I won't say "I told you so" oh whoops(!)


It doesn't make much difference to people who have enjoyed going out though, 4 more weeks until you can take your mask off going to the bog or sit with more than 6.


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## matticus (16 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> No, a month ago we were criticising the 17th(?) May step and saying it should lead to postponement of the 21 June one. I won't say "I told you so" oh whoops(!)



No need; the system was/is designed to adapt in exactly this way!


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## shep (16 Jun 2021)

Once again, those who feel it's still unsafe to mix don't have to. 

More room in the pubs for those that do.


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## roubaixtuesday (16 Jun 2021)

shep said:


> Once again, those who feel it's still unsafe to mix don't have to.
> 
> More room in the pubs for those that do.



Once again, pandemic disease is more a societal than individual risk.


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## lane (16 Jun 2021)

Hospitalisations up by 173 today. I know it's still quite a low number and overall we have just over 1,000 in hospital but the 7 day average is up by 41%.


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## Bromptonaut (16 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What is worth noting is that barely a week before the announcement, Johnson trumpeted that he saw nothing in the data to suggest a delay was necessary. The data continued exactly as expected, and a delay duly followed.



He is at least consistent. Dashing headlong to a screeching halt is exactly what happened over earlier lockdowns and the Xmas screw up.


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## roubaixtuesday (16 Jun 2021)

Bromptonaut said:


> He is at least consistent. Dashing headlong to a screeching halt is exactly what happened over earlier lockdowns and the Xmas screw up.



It's the compulsive need to lie that gets to me. 

He knew the data looked terrible. 

He knew influential SAGE members were saying publicly a delay would be needed. 

The public knew what was coming. 

Why lie?


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## mjr (16 Jun 2021)

shep said:


> Once again, those who feel it's still unsafe to mix don't have to.
> 
> More room in the pubs for those that do.


How cussed do you have to be to sit inside a pub on a day as good as this? Sit in the shade in the garden! Protect the NHS! Save lives!


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## lane (16 Jun 2021)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57496074


mjr said:


> How cussed do you have to be to sit inside a pub on a day as good as this? Sit in the shade in the garden! Protect the NHS! Save lives!



Hr does because he can - no matter it's much nicer outside!


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## lane (16 Jun 2021)

Children 12-17 unlikely to be given vaccine UK "experts" to announce. Good that we have much better experts in this country than in the others that have decided it is a good idea.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57496074


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## dodgy (16 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Children 12-17 unlikely to be given vaccine UK "experts" to announce. Good that we have much better experts in this country than in the others that have decided it is a good idea.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57496074


Do you doubt their expertise, since you used quotes?


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## lane (16 Jun 2021)

dodgy said:


> Do you doubt their expertise, since you used quotes?



Since it is a different outcome to other countries yes - although they could be the ones who are right I suppose. Still some countries experts must be more expert than others and on the whole ours haven't exactly covered themselves in glory thus far.


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## Oldhippy (16 Jun 2021)

The only experts in the field are viralogists surely? By the the time politicians of all colours and nations, big business and the stupidity of people have tw*tted about with the reality it becomes something else entirely


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## dodgy (16 Jun 2021)

Just putting quotes around 'experts' is all a bit brexity, that's all.


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## lane (16 Jun 2021)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ave-peaked-in-blackburn-official-figures-show

Covid cases have peaked in Blackburn


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## lane (16 Jun 2021)

dodgy said:


> Just putting quotes around 'experts' is all a bit brexity, that's all.



Well when it was Brexit I would certainly have agreed with you. However seeing how Covid has unfolded I have become more sceptical of Experts. I know they were supposedly given an out of date text book or something but even so.....


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## lane (16 Jun 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> The only experts in the field are viralogists surely? By the the time politicians of all colours and nations, big business and the stupidity of people have tw*tted about with the reality it becomes something else entirely



I don't know exactly who makes the recommendation but it certainly is not polititions. I would be interested in due course to hear the rationale but as it goes against what is happening in the US and Israel I expect it's a mistake.


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## shep (16 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> How cussed do you have to be to sit inside a pub on a day as good as this? Sit in the shade in the garden! Protect the NHS! Save lives!


Cussed?


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## Rusty Nails (16 Jun 2021)

shep said:


> Cussed?


Aka awkward or annoying


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## shep (16 Jun 2021)

Rusty Nails said:


> Aka awkward or annoying


Cheers.


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## Ajax Bay (16 Jun 2021)

The issue of whether to recommend vaccination of under 18s is a significant challenge and the stakeholders/experts are not just virologists. There are ethical issues individual v community and individual v classmates. Like many things there is unlikely to be a simple binary 'answer'. @lane : the rationale/judgement call is that the risk of vaccination is greater or less than the benefit accrued: simples.
I suggest you research carefully what the situation is in the USA. Aiui the FDA have authorised the emergency use of some vaccines, but the recommendation is froma different body. I suspect @roubaixtuesday would be able to share the dynamics.
Anyway this is media clickbait. There is no spare Pfizer/Moderna to vaccinate under 18s. Once all adults (18-39) are given their first dose, all the supplies will be needed for their second dose. So it'll be September before there'd be supplies for under 18s. No rush decision is required, except by the media.
On the plus side (for @shep et al) I can confirm that our evening ride to the pub and several (shared) half gallon jugs of ale were the social highlight of the week (so far). We sat outside till a heavy shower forced us under canvas, and then out onto the road for a dampish ride home.


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## shep (17 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> How cussed do you have to be to sit inside a pub on a day as good as this? Sit in the shade in the garden! Protect the NHS! Save lives!


Well done you, our Pub still insists on no more than 6 per table even outside. Which was kind of my point, glad you're out and about though. 👍


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## roubaixtuesday (17 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I suspect @roubaixtuesday would be able to share the dynamics.



AIUI:

It is not legal to promote a medicinal product for an "indication" without approval. "Indication" includes the condition it's approved for and the age range. Until the first indication of a new medicine is approved, it's not legal to supply the product commercially.

The MHRA is the regulatory body for approval in the UK. I believe the MHRA has recently approved the use of the Pfizer vaccine in children:

_We have carefully reviewed clinical trial data in children aged 12 to 15 years and have concluded that the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective in this age group and that the benefits of this vaccine outweigh any risk._

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-in-12-to-15-year-olds

The indication for the vaccine is now _"Active immunisation to prevent COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus, in individuals 12 years of age and older.", so t_hat means Pfizer can legally promote the vaccine for use in anyone aged 12+ I don't think any of the other vaccines have yet filed for approval in children, and I think trials are ongoing in younger children.

However, whether it is included in the vaccine rollout isn't dictated by the MHRA. The vaccine rollout is run by the NHS, decided and funded by the govt on the advice of the JCVI (Joint committee on vaccination and immunisation). So even if approved, if the JCVI advise on balance that the govt shouldn't run a programme in adolescents, then individual doctors can prescribe the vaccine, but there will be no mass rollout. And NHS may not fund it for individual doctors, so you might need to go private, and even that might not be possible due to supply (if all the supply is directed to the govt programme, even if prescribed, it's not actually available). 

I would hope that at the very least, children at severe risk can get immunised now, and personally I'd like the 12-17 yo age range vaccinated ASAP as continued school disruption is the last thing they need, and the benefits for population herd immunity are huge. I *think* 16&17 yos aren't included in the current rollout plan (I have a 16yo) ?

Doctors can prescribe the use of any medicine for children, even if not approved, so-called "off label" use. So if a doctor concludes that an 11yo is at severe risk from COVID, and would benefit from vaccination, there is nothing legally to stop them prescribing the vaccine for them. Many drugs commonly used in children have never been tested in a paediatric population. Current regulations now require a paediatric development plan to be approved for every new drug for adults, to avoid that in future.


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## mjr (17 Jun 2021)

shep said:


> Well done you, our Pub still insists on no more than 6 per table even outside. Which was kind of my point, glad you're out and about though. 👍


I've been out and about throughout, as key worker and covid volunteer. Yesterday's refreshment stop was on the way home after meeting a councillor.

I am very surprised that you support a pub that is making up its own extra restrictions that appear to have almost no scientific support (as outdoor transmission is very very rare and current regs allow up to 30 at a table) but if you feel the law is now too weak, I guess it's good someome offers that choice to nervous customers.


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## shep (17 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> I've been out and about throughout, as key worker and covid volunteer. Yesterday's refreshment stop was on the way home after meeting a councillor.
> 
> I am very surprised that you support a pub that is making up its own extra restrictions that appear to have almost no scientific support (as outdoor transmission is very very rare and current regs allow up to 30 at a table) but if you feel the law is now too weak, I guess it's good someome offers that choice to nervous customers.


It's my local so either stick to their rules or don't go, unfortunately I like going so have to put up with it.

I must have got you mixed up with some other poster as I thought you were working from home and very cautious about mixing, my mistake.

What does a Covid volunteer do as a matter of interest?


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## roubaixtuesday (17 Jun 2021)

And so the Brexit tapir comes home to roost.

The deepest irony. A vaccination programme dishonestly attributed to Brexit was claimed as our triumphant way out of the pandemic ahead of the perfidious EU. This is now mown down by the delta variant actually attributable to our prioritisation of promoting Brexit, and we end thereby end up last European nation out of the pandemic*

Apologies for my mixed metaphors, but I'm really pissed off as we're almost certainly going to have to cancel our French holiday. No Alpine cols for us. And yes, I know, first world problems and all, but everyone else in the EU will be able to go there.







*not yet certain, but the progress of vaccination across the EU and the plummeting case rate makes it very likely that even if they suffer a significant delta impact, they'll be further ahead than we are in vaccination, so it will be less significant than it is here.


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## nickyboy (17 Jun 2021)

I have a friend who works for Greater Manchester Police. 

Apparently the rank and file are being advised not to scan in when visiting a pub, restaurant etc so as not to get "caught" by the quarantining requirements in the event of a positive case in the establishment.

We're all in this together...or not it seems. Maybe I should do the same and not scan in, given I think my job is no less important than theirs?


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## shep (17 Jun 2021)

nickyboy said:


> I have a friend who works for Greater Manchester Police.
> 
> Apparently the rank and file are being advised not to scan in when visiting a pub, restaurant etc so as not to get "caught" by the quarantining requirements in the event of a positive case in the establishment.
> 
> We're all in this together...or not it seems. Maybe I should do the same and not scan in, given I think my job is no less important than theirs?


This isn't a new concept, surprised your mates blabbed it to you who then puts it on a public forum.


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## Bromptonaut (17 Jun 2021)

shep said:


> This isn't a new concept, surprised your mates blabbed it to you who then puts it on a public forum.



To be honest using one code for the whole of a pub where there are already mitigations in the form of capacity limits, table service etc is a bit OTT.

I've been on a couple of Caravan & Motorhome Club Sites during lockdown. We're all in our own caravans with capacity limits and distancing in the shared facilities. Should I be forced to self isolate 'cos some bloke a quarter of a mile away using different facilities blocks has tested +ve?


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## lane (17 Jun 2021)

398 patients admitted to hospital yesterday and admissions up 43%. Cases 11,000 today. I would say we are still looking at roughly 6% of cases requiring hospitalisation. That does make things easier than when the ratio was 20%. However I think if we get to 60,000 cases a day we might have problems and I don't think that's at all unlikely if we open up fully and quite possibly if we don't.


----------



## midlife (17 Jun 2021)

Teacher at wife's school pinged on the app and self isolating. Been away to Manchester and Warrington visiting friends. Not sure that's a good idea at the moment....


----------



## lane (17 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The issue of whether to recommend vaccination of under 18s is a significant challenge and the stakeholders/experts are not just virologists. There are ethical issues individual v community and individual v classmates. Like many things there is unlikely to be a simple binary 'answer'. @lane : the rationale/judgement call is that the risk of vaccination is greater or less than the benefit accrued: simples.
> I suggest you research carefully what the situation is in the USA. Aiui the FDA have authorised the emergency use of some vaccines, but the recommendation is froma different body. I suspect @roubaixtuesday would be able to share the dynamics.
> Anyway this is media clickbait. There is no spare Pfizer/Moderna to vaccinate under 18s. Once all adults (18-39) are given their first dose, all the supplies will be needed for their second dose. So it'll be September before there'd be supplies for under 18s. No rush decision is required, except by the media.
> On the plus side (for @shep et al) I can confirm that our evening ride to the pub and several (shared) half gallon jugs of ale were the social highlight of the week (so far). We sat outside till a heavy shower forced us under canvas, and then out onto the road for a dampish ride home.



https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/adolescents.html


----------



## Bazzer (17 Jun 2021)

Bromptonaut said:


> To be honest using one code for the whole of a pub where there are already mitigations in the form of capacity limits, table service etc is a bit OTT.
> 
> I've been on a couple of Caravan & Motorhome Club Sites during lockdown. We're all in our own caravans with capacity limits and distancing in the shared facilities. Should I be forced to self isolate 'cos some bloke a quarter of a mile away using different facilities blocks has tested +ve?


That did happen last week to a friend of Mrs B. 
A health complaint meant that she and her husband spent a huge part of the last 15 months in isolation. They went to their caravan in Devon and have been pinged by the app and told to leave the site by the owner. My wife has been told that because of the health complaint they have continued to be careful with mixing/distancing and the assumption is it is a visitor to the site, but as they have not been mixing..........


----------



## nickyboy (17 Jun 2021)

shep said:


> This isn't a new concept, surprised your mates blabbed it to you who then puts it on a public forum.


Given you apparently knew that "this isn't a new concept" it's hardly an earth shattering revelation

What it is is a really good excuse not to log in for track and trace. If off duty police are being told to not log in, why should I log in?

They should either log in or explain publicly why they are advising their staff to not log in


----------



## shep (18 Jun 2021)

nickyboy said:


> Given you apparently knew that "this isn't a new concept" it's hardly an earth shattering revelation
> 
> What it is is a really good excuse not to log in for track and trace. If off duty police are being told to not log in, why should I log in?
> 
> They should either log in or explain publicly why they are advising their staff to not log in


Correct, not disagreeing just surprised your mate told you, that's all.

You would think that sort of info would want to be kept quiet. 

As for you logging in, do what you like for me.


----------



## kingrollo (18 Jun 2021)

We haven't heard much about the new normal lately. imo it's more relevant now than ever.

The idea that on a specific date - all restrictions disappear and we go back to how we were deemed like a pipe dream to me.

Next few weeks will be interesting. I can see no reason why infections will start falling - and that would only get worse if we drop all restrictions in July.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (18 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I can see no reason why infections will start falling



We are currently vaccinating 500,000 people a day. 0.7% of the population. You need 2 jabs, so 0.35% daily.

In a month, that's 10% of the population.

Currently, ~64% of the population (incl children) have at least one vaccination.

So ~36% are unvaccinated.

That 36% will drop to 26%, a ratio of ~0.7

So we expect the R number to drop by the same ratio, purely due to vaccination.

That's enough to peak within a month.

If infections rise enough, they'll add to that too (and infections are actually *more* effective at reducing R pro rata than jabs as they only target the unvaccinated)

So, I confidently predict that unless restrictions are further eased, infections will not be growing significantly within a month.

Bookmark this for my future humiliation.


----------



## kingrollo (18 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> We care currently vaccinating 500,000 people a day. 0.7% of the population. You need 2 jabs, so 0.35% daily.
> 
> In a month, that's 10% of the population.
> 
> ...



OK - Hope you're right.

My U25 son had first Jab yesterday - so 10 days for that to provide an immune response - 2nd Jab mid Aug - so by the end of Aug he will have max protection.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (18 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> OK - Hope you're right.
> 
> My U25 son had first Jab yesterday - so 10 days for that to provide an immune response - 2nd Jab mid Aug - so by the end of Aug he will have max protection.



The first jab will actually make a really big difference too to the R number.

Even if protection against infection is only ~33% and reduction of onward transmission the same, that still ~ reduces the R number by half. So whilst not super-protective individually, it makes a huge difference at a population level.

My 19yo booked tomorrow.


----------



## Unkraut (18 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> And yes, I know, first world problems and all, ...


ditto.


roubaixtuesday said:


> Apologies for my mixed metaphors, but I'm really pissed off as we're almost certainly going to have to cancel our French holiday.


I also hope for a cycling holiday in Alsace that I have wittered on about elsewhere. Would start in two months. This depends on France becoming a 'green' country on the UK list. As you live in the UK, do you think there is any reasonable likelihood this will ever happen? The holiday organiser is going to update around July 6th, and I would have thought three weeks later will have to made a definitive decision one way or the other.

Things are heading in the direction of the 'new normal' both here and in France, but the Indian version might put a stop to this. This is, however, considered to be more of a threat in the autumn when a fourth wave might be a possibility, especially amongst the younger age groups. The variant is in small-scale circulation already, with a heavy clampdown wherever it surfaces.

Pragmatically, without vaccination the restrictions still likely to be in place would make it hardly worthwhile to attempt a holiday this year.

I noticed wading through the UK govt website that it appears no distinction is being made between those who have been fully vaccinated and those who have not when it comes to entering Britain from abroad. I can appreciate why some people don't want distinctions made for reasons of discrimination, but this does seem a tad over the top to me. There _is_ a difference between the two, though as the campaign continues this will decrease.


roubaixtuesday said:


> Bookmark this for my future humiliation.


Duly done. It's a pleasure to be of assistance to you.


----------



## PK99 (18 Jun 2021)

Interesting comparison date here;


----------



## roubaixtuesday (18 Jun 2021)

Unkraut said:


> Would start in two months. This depends on France becoming a 'green' country on the UK list. As you live in the UK, do you think there is any reasonable likelihood this will ever happen?



I would guess that most of the EU will become green before the end of July, which would facilitate summer holidays. Currently numbers are low and rapidly falling almost everywhere except in the UK. Even if that starts to change, the EU vaccination programme will outrun it, I think - a big delta impact in the EU looks unlikely but not inconceivable. 

But there are no clear criteria for green and decisions on these things are capricious, so very hard to say, and could easily be wrong.

What do you think my chances are of France changing it's entry criteria for the UK in the next month? I think very low...


----------



## lane (18 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> Interesting comparison date here;
> 
> View attachment 594446
> 
> ...



Interesting but the key issue is the comparison between cases and hospital admissions


----------



## DCLane (18 Jun 2021)

+1 to the above, deaths have tended to rise 2 weeks later.


----------



## PK99 (18 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Interesting but the key issue is the comparison between cases and hospital admissions
> 
> View attachment 594451
> 
> ...



I'm not sure I understand the comparison you are making here.

I've added in Hospitalisations from the same data set.

The time lag (Peak Cases ...Peak Hospitalisation .....Peak deaths)
and correlation (cases vs admissions vs deaths) from the August* surge onwards is clear, and the lack of any current correlated surge is also clear. 

*I've chosen August as we can be more confident in the comparability of the data than in the early stages.


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## roubaixtuesday (18 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> the lack of any current correlated surge is also clear.



Have a look on a log plot


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Jun 2021)

There's an area by area vaccination rates map here - https://covid.joinzoe.com/data?mc_cid=b8bcef9ede&mc_eid=8bf870168d#vaccinations

It indicates how cities are trailing and the figures for inner London are appallingly bad. If low vaccination rates result in higher hospital admissions, which is pretty much a given, then London's hospitals are going to stay busy for a long time.


----------



## lane (18 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> I'm not sure I understand the comparison you are making here.
> 
> I've added in Hospitalisations from the same data set.
> 
> ...



My graphs are taken from UK covid dashboard. So I am happy with them, they show an increase in cases and lower (as you would expect) but noticable increase in hospitalizations.


----------



## shep (18 Jun 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> There's an area by area vaccination rates map here - https://covid.joinzoe.com/data?mc_cid=b8bcef9ede&mc_eid=8bf870168d#vaccinations
> 
> It indicates how cities are trailing and the figures for inner London are appallingly bad. If low vaccination rates result in higher hospital admissions, which is pretty much a given, then London's hospitals are going to stay busy for a long time.


Especially after this weekend!


----------



## lane (18 Jun 2021)

A single Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine dose reduces chances of catching coronavirus and going to hospital with it by about 75%, data suggests (BBC news website)

Also on BBC news website the R number has not increased from last week.

That seems good news in particular the first one.


----------



## mjr (18 Jun 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> There's an area by area vaccination rates map here - https://covid.joinzoe.com/data?mc_cid=b8bcef9ede&mc_eid=8bf870168d#vaccinations
> 
> It indicates how cities are trailing and the figures for inner London are appallingly bad. If low vaccination rates result in higher hospital admissions, which is pretty much a given, then London's hospitals are going to stay busy for a long time.


How is that percentage calculated? If city-dwellers are on average younger and/or people with long-term health problems prefer to convalesce in the countryside, both of which seem likely, then the cities could not have as high a % vaccinated due to the JCVI's prioritisation and they might be bang on target, so it would be wrong to say they are "trailing" and "appallingly bad". Also, if the area population estimates are incorrect, that could make a big difference.

What would be useful is a "% take-up" map, showing what % of those invited have accepted.


----------



## mjr (18 Jun 2021)

PK99 said:


> I've added in Hospitalisations from the same data set.


Same source (our world in data) but not same data set. The hospitalisations graph you've posted finishes 10 days earlier than the cases graph.


----------



## fossyant (18 Jun 2021)

Lots of Delta variants in London and Scotland next week.


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## classic33 (18 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> How is that percentage calculated?* If *city-dwellers are on average younger and/or people with long-term health problems prefer to convalesce in the countryside, both of which seem likely, then the cities could not have as high a % vaccinated due to the JCVI's prioritisation and they might be bang on target, so it would be wrong to say they are "trailing" and "appallingly bad". Also, *if* the area population estimates are incorrect, that could make a big difference.
> 
> What would be useful is a "% take-up" map, showing what % of those invited have accepted.


Define "city dweller". Then explain why they should be younger.


----------



## mjr (18 Jun 2021)

classic33 said:


> Define "city dweller". Then explain why they should be younger.


A city dweller is someone who lives in a city.

I don't say they SHOULD be younger. They just are, on average. In 2018, the average age of the UK was 40, while the average age of all UK cities was 38 and London was 36. Youngest city was Slough at average 33, then Oxford at 34.


----------



## classic33 (18 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> A city dweller is someone who lives in a city.
> 
> I don't say they SHOULD be younger. They just are, on average. In 2018, the average age of the UK was 40, while the average age of all UK cities was 38 and London was 36. Youngest city was Slough at average 33, then Oxford at 34.


Just average, not actual age.
Half of Leeds(City) is over 50.
Average age is 38, means there's a lot of young folk there.


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## mjr (18 Jun 2021)

classic33 said:


> Just average, not actual age.
> Half of Leeds(City) is over 50.
> Average age is 38, means there's a lot of young folk there.


Exactly the point I was making! Being younger on average, they will have been invited for vaccination later on average, so cities will appear lighter on that vaccination percentage map, even if nothing much else is different.


----------



## neil_merseyside (18 Jun 2021)

classic33 said:


> Just average, not actual age.
> Half of Leeds(City) is over 50.
> Average age is 38, means there's a lot of young folk there.


Oh hang on we don't like facts here, we like vague (and magnolia (beige if you must)) but certainly not numbers that can be argued with


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## classic33 (18 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> Exactly the point I was making! Being younger on average, they will have been invited for vaccination later on average, so cities will appear lighter on that vaccination percentage map, even if nothing much else is different.


Home to a student population close to 40,000. Living in very close proximity to one another.

What age(s), and how many would be needed to bring the average age below the other half of the cities population?

There's too many variables being used to prove a point.


----------



## Bromptonaut (19 Jun 2021)

classic33 said:


> Home to a student population close to 40,000. Living in very close proximity to one another.



Students are one young cohort. Another is professionals at the start of their careers living a bit like students in bedsits and shared houses. At/after their mid twenties they'll begin to drift out to the suburbs and beyond.


----------



## lane (19 Jun 2021)

mjr said:


> A city dweller is someone who lives in a city.
> 
> I don't say they SHOULD be younger. They just are, on average. In 2018, the average age of the UK was 40, while the average age of all UK cities was 38 and London was 36. Youngest city was Slough at average 33, then Oxford at 34.



We had this discussion before when done someone posted areas with low rates - one area was actually titled something like Nottingham Trent university - go figure!


----------



## classic33 (19 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> We had this discussion before when done someone posted areas with low rates - one area was actually titled something like Nottingham Trent university - go figure!


Point I was trying to make was that a large part of the population of the City of Leeds is living in close proximity to one another. Students were chosen as one group which falls into both the younger age and the close proximity living.

There's others living in close proximity, tower blocks for instance, as well as back to back housing. No, or small gardens. But this will include those over the age of 50. Age is just one factor in this, not the only or deciding factor.


----------



## Unkraut (20 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> What do you think my chances are of France changing it's entry criteria for the UK in the next month? I think very low...


I honestly don't know. I have read that France is easing restrictions from the end of this month - opening of cafes, restaurants, fitness studios, exhibitions ..., all with restrictions on numbers. Visits by tourists from outside of Europe possible with health pass, i.e. certificate of vaccination, recovery or negative test. I got this from our local radio station blog. The UK might be considered 'green' if the Indian variant is not completely out of control, but I would have thought a vaccination certificate would still enable travel.

I don't think the situation is hopeless as vaccination does enable more normal activity, and another summer season without income will see many tourist branches go to the wall. 

There have been some murmurings about the situation in Lisbon Portugal - the variant there is thought to have been imported by British tourists and/or workers from Asia. There is also some disquiet over London hosting the football finals.

The vaccination quota here has finally reached half the population for one dose and nearly a third for the second. I believe France is a bit behind on this, but the rate has certainly improved since the wobbly start. I get dose number 2 at 15:26 this afternoon!


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## roubaixtuesday (20 Jun 2021)

Well, we've done the deed and cancelled our holiday. Our 19yo got his first vaccine yesterday, but the French govt demands two jabs plus two weeks, and restrictions on UK nationals travelling seem to be only getting tighter. 

So no swimming in Lac du Bourget, no lacets de Grand Colombier on the tandem. 

A week in west Wales and a week on the Isle of Wight instead. Dictated by the minimal availability (and eye-watering prices) of UK self catering. Still, two areas we don't know and we'll have a good time. 

And hell, it was worth it for Johnson to keep open the possibility of a photo op fit a few weeks.


----------



## lane (20 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Well, we've done the deed and cancelled our holiday. Our 19yo got his first vaccine yesterday, but the French govt demands two jabs plus two weeks, and restrictions on UK nationals travelling seem to be only getting tighter.
> 
> So no swimming in Lac du Bourget, no lacets de Grand Colombier on the tandem.
> 
> ...



The like for your final para. Hope you have a good holiday.


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## roubaixtuesday (20 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Hope you have a good holiday.



It'll be great. Very frustrating, but first world problems.


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## Joey Shabadoo (21 Jun 2021)

Our buyer's just been told that there will be more delays to containers from China as there have been outbreaks of Covid at the Chinese ports


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## Ajax Bay (21 Jun 2021)

The people of the UK have really exceeded a lot of expectations throughout, despite or perhaps because of the sensible interface with the countries' leaderships' style and competence:

broad adherence to very disruptive control measures,
the sterling effort to keep on top of their work despite the disruptions whilst also embracing home schooling,
vaccination take-up without any carrot beyond the protection it offers and minimal stick.
Any other positives to share?


----------



## Low Gear Guy (21 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The people of the UK have really exceeded a lot of expectations throughout, despite or perhaps because of the sensible interface with the countries' leaderships' style and competence:
> 
> broad adherence to very disruptive control measures,
> the sterling effort to keep on top of their work despite the disruptions whilst also embracing home schooling,
> ...


Like lions led by donkeys


----------



## newfhouse (21 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> because


despite


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> because of the sensible interface with the countries' leaderships' style and competence:



Dunno about anyone else, but you've lost me there completely. Care to expand a little?


----------



## lane (21 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The people of the UK have really exceeded a lot of expectations throughout, despite or perhaps because of the sensible interface with the countries' leaderships' style and competence:
> 
> broad adherence to very disruptive control measures,
> the sterling effort to keep on top of their work despite the disruptions whilst also embracing home schooling,
> ...



Some good points. I wonder if we will see such things again, as people may have become cynical when noting that despite their hard efforts the rich continued to jet around the globe in private jets as if the rules didn't apply to them, and despite much hardship the rich on the whole got richer. Although it felt like we were all in it together as always in history we really weren't. So I wonder if this will impact compliance and goodwill in the near future.

Apologies that's not really a positive is it?


----------



## Unkraut (21 Jun 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Well, we've done the deed and cancelled our holiday.


Well I'm sorry you've had to do that, but I don't blame you. It's almost impossible to plan with the current uncertainties. Even if the French were happy to let you in, from what I have read the British might not be too keen on letting you back in, at least not without a great deal of hassle and expense.


roubaixtuesday said:


> A week in west Wales and a week on the Isle of Wight instead.


Assuming you live in England, Wales is still abroad ...

I've nothing against foreign travel, but as a kid we never went abroad. There is stacks to see and do in the UK, I don't think I ever really missed out on anything. I've since broadened my horizons and had a couple of holidays in Luxemburg - who ever does a thing like that?!


----------



## Julia9054 (22 Jun 2021)

Unkraut said:


> I've nothing against foreign travel, but as a kid we never went abroad.


The difference is that it is now much cheaper to go abroad. I can hire a holiday cottage in France for much less money than one in the UK even factoring in the cost of the ferry and petrol to get there. That is in pre pandemic times - UK holidays are even more expensive now.
We haven't booked anything for this summer - I decided the can we/can't we go, was too much stress and bother. We still have about £900 tied up in vouchers with travel companies from two cancelled holidays from last year. They are happy to honour them in 2022 instead


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Jun 2021)

Unkraut said:


> a couple of holidays in Luxemburg



Went through Luxembourg on my first ever cycling tour, three decades ago. Lovely from what I recall.


----------



## lane (24 Jun 2021)

What do people make of the mass event trials - results to be made public shortly. It seems fairly obvious to me that transmission at such events will depend on the level of covid circulating in the community at the time the events took place. Or are the scientists just making sure that it wasn't a mistake to close nightclubs and cancel festivals because they find out they don't spread covid afterall. Just like checking how schools spread covid when they were effectively closed. Is it just me that has lost confidence in the scientists advising the Government through the pandemic?


----------



## classic33 (24 Jun 2021)

What's the difference between tests from an "Authorised Dealer" and the NHS ones. Other than the £60+ price tag.


----------



## vickster (24 Jun 2021)

classic33 said:


> What's the difference between tests from an "Authorised Dealer" and the NHS ones. Other than the £60+ price tag.


Assuming you mean PCR
You can get one if asymptomatic
...and get a certificate to go on holiday/return
This was discussed previously on one of the many Covid threads


----------



## classic33 (24 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> Assuming you mean PCR
> You can get one if asymptomatic
> ...and get a certificate to go on holiday/return
> This was discussed previously on one of the many Covid threads


Any of the tests currently being used. 

The certificate would be only be valid for 72 hours, with another required for return. Ferry operator requirements.

No difference between the actual tests then. Aside from the cost.


----------



## vickster (24 Jun 2021)

classic33 said:


> Any of the tests currently being used.
> 
> The certificate would be only be valid for 72 hours, with another required for return. Ferry operator requirements.
> 
> No difference between the actual tests then. Aside from the cost.


Not as far as I know assuming you’re talking about PCR not lateral flow. those are a different type of test
Your question is a bit cryptic
Check with ferry or country you’re visiting. Whether it needs to be PCR or Lat flow ok. Fit for travel certificate is for former which cost much more as processed by lab. Not just snot on a stick, and wait 30 mins


----------



## vickster (24 Jun 2021)

If going from France to Ireland on Irish Ferries for example, you need a PCR test
https://www.irishferries.com/uk-en/...ns/travel-restrictions/travelling-to-ireland/
As per Irish gov rules https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/b...ment-for-a-pre-departure-covid-19-rt-pcr-test (ditto arrivals from UK)


----------



## lane (24 Jun 2021)

I have a houseful of lateral flow tests, sent from the school. We can get as many as we like and could all take them if we wanted. Is it a PCR that is required for holidays?


----------



## vickster (24 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> I have a houseful of lateral flow tests, sent from the school. We can get as many as we like and could all take them if we wanted. Is it a PCR that is required for holidays?


Yes


----------



## kingrollo (24 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The people of the UK have really exceeded a lot of expectations throughout, despite or perhaps because of the sensible interface with the countries' leaderships' style and competence:
> 
> broad adherence to very disruptive control measures,
> the sterling effort to keep on top of their work despite the disruptions whilst also embracing home schooling,
> ...


 You mention no carrot - but the stick was very much the 125k deaths. ! That focussed a lot of people minds !


----------



## lane (24 Jun 2021)

A lot of people exceeded expectations but as always there were exceptions for whom the rules did not apply

Jet owned by Sports Direct boss Mike Ashley flew 145,000 miles over pandemic 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jet-owned-sports-direct-boss-24215770


----------



## PK99 (25 Jun 2021)

A very long read but worth the time.

https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/living-normally-with-covid-19


----------



## SpokeyDokey (25 Jun 2021)

Wasn't too long tbh. 

A good read and interesting to note outcomes similar to influenza annual outbreaks. 

A sensible read is refreshing amongst some of the almost hysterical witterings on social media and in the press.


----------



## lane (25 Jun 2021)

They seem more confident at controlling variants that escape the vaccine than I think we will be. They aren't planning just to go back to normal either far from it really.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (25 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> They seem more confident at controlling variants that escape the vaccine than I think we will be. They aren't planning just to go back to normal either far from it really.



Who is the 'we' there? 

My personal confidence that we will control Covid long-term across the globe to a viable level is very high based on eg how we control the successive Influenza iterations.


----------



## Ajax Bay (25 Jun 2021)

Excess deaths (ie above the average based on 2015-2019) is often used as an indication of 'real' numbers as opposed to the numbers shared as reported (and later by what's recorded on the death certificate).
ONS: deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending11june2021
"Across the UK, from the week ending 13 March 2020 up to 11 June 2021, the number of deaths was 877,620. The number of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) was 152,490, and the number of excess deaths above the five-year average was 115,738.

So going by death certification, deaths not involving COVID-19 during this 15 month period were 36,752 less than the UK would normally(statistically) expect.
(See vaccine thread for comment on 'flu'.)


----------



## Ajax Bay (25 Jun 2021)

Flu v COVID-19 Wk 23
"Of the 84 deaths in England and Wales that involved COVID-19 [5-11 Jun], 66 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death. Of the 1,163 deaths that involved influenza and pneumonia, 292 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (25.1%)."





What measures should we take to try to reduce the huge numbers of people dying with or from flu and pneumonia?
Nevertheless good to see those 1,163 deaths per week rate is well below normal for June (?1800+).


----------



## neil_merseyside (25 Jun 2021)

I have an older friend who never had the flu vaccine simply because he didn't want it (as he saw no need) neither did his best mate - guess what killed said friend just prior to C19 (or was it?), roll on to full on C19 onslaught and a few more fell away, so now he takes a jab as and when. Personal lifestyle might mean you can dodge the bullet, but having something akin to kevlar outerwear has to help.


----------



## lane (25 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Flu v COVID-19 Wk 23
> "Of the 84 deaths in England and Wales that involved COVID-19 [5-11 Jun], 66 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death. Of the 1,163 deaths that involved influenza and pneumonia, 292 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (25.1%)."
> View attachment 595787
> 
> ...



Looks like the graph is showing 5 year average is that correct?


----------



## Ajax Bay (25 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> Looks like the graph is showing 5 year average is that correct?


Yes - the light green dots show the average weakly death rate (averaged over 2015-2019).
I cannot think of any other explanation for the two spikes on the flu/pneumonia graph other than those much higher than average months (April 2020) and Jan/Feb 2021) are (?knowingly) undiagnosed/untested deaths 'with' COVID-19.


----------



## lane (26 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Yes - the light green dots show the average weakly death rate (averaged over 2015-2019).
> I cannot think of any other explanation for the two spikes on the flu/pneumonia graph other than those much higher than average months (April 2020) and Jan/Feb 2021) are (?knowingly) undiagnosed/untested deaths 'with' COVID-19.
> View attachment 595812


Thanks I hadn't quite understand the graph but do now - very interesting.


----------



## lane (26 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Flu v COVID-19 Wk 23
> "Of the 84 deaths in England and Wales that involved COVID-19 [5-11 Jun], 66 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death. Of the 1,163 deaths that involved influenza and pneumonia, 292 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (25.1%)."
> View attachment 595787
> 
> ...



In terms of flu and phenmonia deaths and reducing them - I think that the scientists are for example quite keen on mask wearing during the main flu season as it's not particularly disruptive and would reduce deaths and also better hygiene. Not sure if that just spreads the flu season over a longer period at a lower level. In any case it won't happen and wouldn't have public support or compliance.


----------



## lane (26 Jun 2021)

Mrs Lane is volunteering on the jab effort today. She just had a cyclist try to enter the building as an an anti Covid / anti vaccination protester


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (26 Jun 2021)

Meanwhile, the NHS won't let my daughter take her 2nd jab because the system says she's had it. So, either because of fraudulent impersonation or dodgy data entry, her name, dob and NHS number show her as having had it. The technical people don't know how to reset it so refer her back to her GP who refer her to the technical people. And so it goes. Once you've had your jab on the computer you've had your jab....


----------



## midlife (26 Jun 2021)

Does she have the vaccination card?


----------



## Ajax Bay (26 Jun 2021)

Perhaps she has an alibi for when (and where) the ephemeral second jab was given.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (26 Jun 2021)

midlife said:


> Does she have the vaccination card?


It never occurred to me that she might not but I'll ask her. I imagine she has it but with only the first dose entered.


----------



## midlife (26 Jun 2021)

The paper version should top trump what is on the computer. 

When I was taught to vaccinate we were told it was very important to fill in the paper card with date / type / batch number etc


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (26 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Perhaps she has an alibi for when (and where) the ephemeral second jab was given.


If she has no joy from the clinical commissioning group, it'll be they that will have to explain why they're refusing to administer medical care to her.


----------



## Ajax Bay (26 Jun 2021)

Yes but. Daughter will have her vaccine card with the first dose marked up and the second dose lines blank. Proves nothing. Loads of people turn up without their card (first dose) and get another one with the second dose details marked on. Obviously daughter will not have the latter. They are "refusing to administer a third dose of the/a vaccine" and have a duty so to do. Keep calm. Reprise effort to enlist GP surgery help. Get a copy of the actual and notional vaccine details (location/date) from her surgery - she's entitled to those details.


----------



## midlife (26 Jun 2021)

Ah, yep you are right. I guess they would do second dose without the card. She can access her details about the phantom second jab, GP should have it.


----------



## kingrollo (26 Jun 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> If she has no joy from the clinical commissioning group, it'll be they that will have to explain why they're refusing to administer medical care to her.


Good luck with that.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (26 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Yes but. Daughter will have her vaccine card with the first dose marked up and the second dose lines blank. Proves nothing. Loads of people turn up without their card (first dose) and get another one with the second dose details marked on. Obviously daughter will not have the latter. They are "refusing to administer a third dose of the/a vaccine" and have a duty so to do. Keep calm. Reprise effort to enlist GP surgery help. Get a copy of the actual and notional vaccine details (location/date) from her surgery - she's entitled to those details.





midlife said:


> Ah, yep you are right. I guess they would do second dose without the card. She can access her details about the phantom second jab, GP should have it.


I'll pass this on to her. However, it was the GP surgery that first sent her off to NHS customer care who sent it off to their techs who didn't know how to unjab an erroneous data entry.


----------



## KnittyNorah (26 Jun 2021)

You couldn't make it up if you tried ...
Anti-vaxxer mistakes pub beer tent for Covid testing site and shouts at it | Metro News


----------



## Craig the cyclist (26 Jun 2021)

This little situation with @deptfordmarmoset sums up the problem with the populations view of the programme. 

It wasn't that along ago we had people complaining that nurses were too 'jab happy', after the woman in Swindon got the wrong jab. I suggested that the patients should be listened to as they aren't daft, and was shot down in a whither of 'you need to follow the IT, people can't be trusted to remember complex details about their treatment, it's all down to the nurses', now the nurses are taking extra care in this situation and guess what? Apparently now the clinicians need to be listening to the patient in front of them because she isn't daft and knows what she is doing 

No win- No win


----------



## lane (26 Jun 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> You couldn't make it up if you tried ...
> Anti-vaxxer mistakes pub beer tent for Covid testing site and shouts at it | Metro News



A school I used to work at had a lockdown exercise - where they practice locking the school down to keep everyone safe in the event of some sort of attack. Some locals thought they were locking pupils in to force them to be vaccinated and planned a protest outside the school. You couldn't make that up either but stupidity seems to know no bounds - https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/local-news/school-targeted-anti-vaccine-protesters-5402368


----------



## KnittyNorah (27 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> A school I used to work at had a lockdown exercise - where they practice locking the school down to keep everyone safe in the event of some sort of attack. Some locals thought they were locking pupils in to force them to be vaccinated and planned a protest outside the school. You couldn't make that up either but stupidity seems to know no bounds - https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/local-news/school-targeted-anti-vaccine-protesters-5402368



What very strange minds some folk have. I wonder why they don't put their fertile and exceedingly-bizarre imaginations to good use by writing best-selling fantasy novels.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Jun 2021)

My son had his first jab in Wales. He has now finished uni and is back home in England. He doesn't have a date for a second jab.

Sure he could go to a "grab a jab" - but he needs the Pfizer - any ideas how to proceed ?


----------



## Duc gas (27 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> My son had his first jab in Wales. He has now finished uni and is back home in England. He doesn't have a date for a second jab.
> 
> Sure he could go to a "grab a jab" - but he needs the Pfizer - any ideas how to proceed ?


Speak with your go surgery?


----------



## Craig the cyclist (27 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> My son had his first jab in Wales. He has now finished uni and is back home in England. He doesn't have a date for a second jab.
> 
> Sure he could go to a "grab a jab" - but he needs the Pfizer - any ideas how to proceed ?



They are doing Pfizer at some sites, where do you live, why not look it up?


----------



## mjr (27 Jun 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> They are doing Pfizer at some sites, where do you live, why not look it up?


Which vaccines are available at a site is listed on the "find a walk-in vaccination centre" website, but that's so broken I'd phone to verify before travelling far.


----------



## vickster (27 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> My son had his first jab in Wales. He has now finished uni and is back home in England. He doesn't have a date for a second jab.
> 
> Sure he could go to a "grab a jab" - but he needs the Pfizer - any ideas how to proceed ?


Get him to phone 119 if GP surgery can’t sort. Or the Welsh NHS equivalent of 119? or as you work in IT for the NHS can’t you hack the system?  

you’re in Birmingham though? Plenty of walk in centres offering jabs to over 18s, which will be Pfizer (not Edgbaston though). Make sure he takes his card with him as proof of first jab

https://www.nhs.uk/service-search/find-a-walk-in-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-site/results?Query=Birmingham &Latitude=52.479286020180112&Longitude=-1.9029406733117744


----------



## lane (27 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> My son had his first jab in Wales. He has now finished uni and is back home in England. He doesn't have a date for a second jab.
> 
> Sure he could go to a "grab a jab" - but he needs the Pfizer - any ideas how to proceed ?



Round here sites are announcing which vaccines they will have in advance


----------



## Johnno260 (27 Jun 2021)

I have my 2nd Pfizer booked for Thursday.
Fresh off the press from my crazy uncle though






I can’t report him as blocked, my uncle sent it to my Mum and asked how she feels knowing her daughter in law (my wife) is one of them.


----------



## kingrollo (27 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> Get him to phone 119 if GP surgery can’t sort. Or the Welsh NHS equivalent of 119? or as you work in IT for the NHS can’t you hack the system?
> 
> you’re in Birmingham though? Plenty of walk in centres offering jabs to over 18s, which will be Pfizer (not Edgbaston though). Make sure he takes his card with him as proof of first jab
> 
> https://www.nhs.uk/service-search/find-a-walk-in-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-site/results?Query=Birmingham &Latitude=52.479286020180112&Longitude=-1.9029406733117744



Cheers.
Yes looked this morning some say which vaccine they are giving.
The other challenge is getting an exam fatigued student out of bed.!!!!


----------



## vickster (27 Jun 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Cheers.
> Yes looked this morning some say which vaccine they are giving.
> The other challenge is getting an exam fatigued student out of bed.!!!!


How long ago did he have the first one?


----------



## lane (27 Jun 2021)

Velodrome in Derby say they have plenty of both Pfizer and AZ today no appointments needed. They did 5,000 yesterday which was a slow day apparently


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Jun 2021)

We had people handing out anti vax flyers the other day, they tried to hand me one but I walked around and said no thanks, the guy followed me and started banging on about the great reset and depopulation, he was saying about the depop stuff in front on my kids and that the government was looking to kill us.

I got my kids into the car and let rip at this guy, I said what with the depop stuff? It’s to do with climate change? His reply was no it’s for money and resource hoarding, I said you know how stupid that is? Your dumb flyer is claiming they will leave ½ million people alive globally, what good is money in a world with no people? No industry, no consumers, no large scale food production, no need for money.

What good is resource hoarding in a world with massively reduced resource consumption? There is no need.

I did lose my temper a little and told him to never approach someone with kids again, he walked off saying typical sheep the world won’t miss me in 6 months.

I then had to spend time telling an upset 7yr old that Boris isn’t trying to kill her.


----------



## KnittyNorah (28 Jun 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> he was saying about the depop stuff in front on my kids and that the government was looking to kill us.... what good is money in a world with no people? No industry, no consumers, no large scale food production, no need for money. What good is resource hoarding in a world with massively reduced resource consumption? There is no need....he walked off saying typical sheep the world won’t miss me in 6 months.



Thing is, if anyone's the sheep, THEY'RE the sheep as their covid-sceptic/anti-vaxxer propaganda hasn't changed one iota despite the massively-increased level of knowledge about C-19 itself; they are still parrotting the nonsense they started to spout eighteen months ago, with the anti-vaxx stuff added in the past 6 - 9 months. 

None of it ever changes._ They have no answers _to any sensible questions you might ask, as you found out. When they cannot even begin to give any rational explanation for their reasoning (if we can call it that) it just shows how very, very indoctrinated they are. They are members of a _cult._


----------



## fossyant (28 Jun 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> Thing is, if anyone's the sheep, THEY'RE the sheep as their covid-sceptic/anti-vaxxer propaganda hasn't changed one iota despite the massively-increased level of knowledge about C-19 itself; they are still parrotting the nonsense they started to spout eighteen months ago, with the anti-vaxx stuff added in the past 6 - 9 months.
> 
> None of it ever changes._ They have no answers _to any sensible questions you might ask, as you found out. When they cannot even begin to give any rational explanation for their reasoning (if we can call it that) it just shows how very, very indoctrinated they are. They are members of a _cult._



Nutters. Just hope they don't get long covid, then they will know about it .

Daughter, just 18, is booked into the local pharmacy on Thursday morning for her first.


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Jun 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> Thing is, if anyone's the sheep, THEY'RE the sheep as their covid-sceptic/anti-vaxxer propaganda hasn't changed one iota despite the massively-increased level of knowledge about C-19 itself; they are still parrotting the nonsense they started to spout eighteen months ago, with the anti-vaxx stuff added in the past 6 - 9 months.
> 
> None of it ever changes._ They have no answers _to any sensible questions you might ask, as you found out. When they cannot even begin to give any rational explanation for their reasoning (if we can call it that) it just shows how very, very indoctrinated they are. They are members of a _cult._



Pretty much this, the guy went red faced and looked like he was about to explode when I pointed out the value of cash in a world where it's become totally irrelevant.

But what annoyed me more is he did this in front of my kids, me alone fine I will laugh it off and point out they have zero evidence and should probably seek medical help, but leave my kids out of it.


----------



## vickster (28 Jun 2021)

Where do you meet these idiots? 
I've not encountered any...except one idiot driving an Uber, luckily it was only a 10 minute journey. He didn't get a tip but did get a crap star rating


----------



## KnittyNorah (28 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> Where do you meet these idiots?
> I've not encountered any...except one idiot driving an Uber, luckily it was only a 10 minute journey. He didn't get a tip but did get a crap star rating



I think most of these idiots would only attempt to interact directly one on one with those they perceive as unlikely to kick back, such as parents with kids. 

Imagine the reaction if they were out more widely and openly purveying their vile stupidity and a couple of big blokes who'd lost their nans and/or granddads last year to C-19 had had a few bevvies and were reminiscing about them ...

ETA when I was in Southport a couple of weeks ago, there were lots of small flyers pasted up on lamposts and in bus shelters - mostly scraped/peeled off or sharpie'd over - but there was enough visible on some of them to see what they were ... 'end the lockdown, the underground lizard men have taken control' or some such nonsense.


----------



## Rusty Nails (28 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> *Where do you meet these idiots? *
> I've not encountered any...except one idiot driving an Uber, luckily it was only a 10 minute journey. He didn't get a tip but did get a crap star rating


Wetherspoons.


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## vickster (28 Jun 2021)

Rusty Nails said:


> Wetherspoons.


With a 7 year old?

But it does explain why I don’t


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## Johnno260 (28 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> Where do you meet these idiots?
> I've not encountered any...except one idiot driving an Uber, luckily it was only a 10 minute journey. He didn't get a tip but did get a crap star rating



Well ignoring the one that is a relative, this one was accosting people on their way from the supermarket to their car.

It's a running joke with my job and family that I'm a magnet for random stuff like this.

Edit: 2 that are relatives.


----------



## lane (28 Jun 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> We had people handing out anti vax flyers the other day, they tried to hand me one but I walked around and said no thanks, the guy followed me and started banging on about the great reset and depopulation, he was saying about the depop stuff in front on my kids and that the government was looking to kill us.
> 
> I got my kids into the car and let rip at this guy, I said what with the depop stuff? It’s to do with climate change? His reply was no it’s for money and resource hoarding, I said you know how stupid that is? Your dumb flyer is claiming they will leave ½ million people alive globally, what good is money in a world with no people? No industry, no consumers, no large scale food production, no need for money.
> 
> ...



He sounds like a bloody good prospect for depopulation with a bit of luck. My uncle had a similar minded friend in the US and he has now died of Covid.


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Jun 2021)

lane said:


> He sounds like a bloody good prospect for depopulation with a bit of luck. My uncle had a similar minded friend in the US and he has now died of Covid.



That's the sad thing, people are getting hurt from miss-informed beliefs.

Now it's obvious there have been some reactions to the vaccines but again the number of issues against people vaccinated the % will be fine, and any medicine has the potential to have a reaction, even paracetamol can, it's weighted with pro vs con.

Chemo is another example it’s horrible stuff, but it’s horrible for a reason and it has the potential to make a difference. 

My uncle is one of these people and I have told people some of the utterly toxic behavior he has displayed, I just don't get some people these days.

Also if I was without my kids I bet this guy wouldn't of approached me, it was probably a play on my emotions.


----------



## KnittyNorah (28 Jun 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> Now it's obvious there have been some reactions to the vaccines but again the number of issues against people vaccinated the % will be fine, and any medicine has the potential to have a reaction, even paracetamol can, it's weighted with pro vs con.



Yes indeed, and can you imagine what the situation would be like if there had been the same ridiculous reaction to smallpox, polio, diphtheria, rabies, tetanus etc etc vaccines? In the 1970s, while working in the Middle East, I met several people who had had smallpox when they were young children in the 1950s. The outward disfigurement, the inward damage and the psychological trauma were profound, there was absolutely no doubt about that. 



Johnno260 said:


> Also if I was without my kids I bet this guy wouldn't of approached me, it was probably a play on my emotions.


I would think it was more that he reckoned you wouldn't give him the response he so richly deserved because you wouldn't've behaved like that in front of your kids. So he was an out and out coward in only approaching people when he's confident they won't retaliate. I await being approached with some glee. I look like an archetypal little old lady but I can - and will! - use language straight from the sewer if I so choose, to such as these.


----------



## Beebo (28 Jun 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> We had people handing out anti vax flyers the other day, they tried to hand me one but I walked around and said no thanks, the guy followed me and started banging on about the great reset and depopulation, he was saying about the depop stuff in front on my kids and that the government was looking to kill us.
> 
> I got my kids into the car and let rip at this guy, I said what with the depop stuff? It’s to do with climate change? His reply was no it’s for money and resource hoarding, I said you know how stupid that is? Your dumb flyer is claiming they will leave ½ million people alive globally, what good is money in a world with no people? No industry, no consumers, no large scale food production, no need for money.
> 
> ...


A population of 500,000 across the entire world? How would that work?
That would be back to subsistence farming for the unlucky few who remained.


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## Johnno260 (28 Jun 2021)

Beebo said:


> A population of 500,000 across the entire world? How would that work?
> That would be back to subsistence farming for the unlucky few who remained.



I'm not sure how it works, on any level, but it's what this guy is proclaiming.

I have seen my uncle use the same amount of people as well, I mean it literally wouldn't work on any level, all the industry across the world etc not closed down correctly nuclear plants the environmental damage from things not being maintained it would be a monumental cluster.


----------



## vickster (28 Jun 2021)

I am going to take a wild crazy guess that these loons haven't really thought any of this crap through with any sort of common sense ... let alone scientific rigour


----------



## Johnno260 (28 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> I am going to take a wild crazy guess that these loons haven't really thought any of this crap through with any sort of common sense ... let alone scientific rigour



That's what I find frustrating it's not a hard thing to disprove, and the family member who is on board with these kind of issues has reduced my tolerance to zero.

Like you said utterly no thought has been put into how the wider world would be affected.


----------



## Rusty Nails (28 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> I am going to take a wild crazy guess that these loons haven't really thought any of this crap through with any sort of common sense ... let alone scientific rigour


FTFY


----------



## lazybloke (28 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> Where do you meet these idiots?
> I've not encountered any...except one idiot driving an Uber, luckily it was only a 10 minute journey. He didn't get a tip but did get a crap star rating


Did you wonder if he was an infection risk?
Think I'd have adjusted my mask, wound down at least one window, and tried not to breathe deeply.

Jumping from a moving Uber might have been an over-reaction, unless he started coughing.


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## vickster (28 Jun 2021)

Not especially no


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## lane (28 Jun 2021)

We had some nutters here a while ago abusing people who went into the co-op with a mask on.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (28 Jun 2021)

BBC News - Australia Covid: Outbreaks emerge across country in 'new phase' of pandemic. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57633457


----------



## lane (28 Jun 2021)

Latest estimates show fewer than one in 1,000 infections is leading to a death. At the peak of the winter wave it was one in 60.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57643694


----------



## Buck (28 Jun 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Meanwhile, the NHS won't let my daughter take her 2nd jab because the system says she's had it. So, either because of fraudulent impersonation or dodgy data entry, her name, dob and NHS number show her as having had it. The technical people don't know how to reset it so refer her back to her GP who refer her to the technical people. And so it goes. Once you've had your jab on the computer you've had your jab....


Did you get sorted? PM me if you need some advice 👍🏻


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (28 Jun 2021)

Buck said:


> Did you get sorted? PM me if you need some advice 👍🏻


No, it's still not sorted. She has her card and knows that the 2nd jab took place in Buckinghamshire on the 18th. She's expecting a response soon but thanks for the offer, if this goesod on much longer, we might need your help.


----------



## Ajax Bay (28 Jun 2021)

McWobble said:


> we can expect 72,000 hospitalisations - 6 times your figures. Again, using your planning assumptions, that suggests a peak of 4,800 per day.


I responded (on 12 Jun):
"Reworking, adding in the already vaccinated as @McWobble suggested.
10% (basis for that estimate shared upthread) chance that those susceptible will catch it. The average fraction of those that catch it who end up in hospital is 1% (another *assumption* which I'm not certain is robust, but I've seen quoted), Spread over 30 days (see previous 'model') 30 days either side of peak that'd suggest (planning figures) = 580pd, peaking at (estimate) 1160pd. (NB Latest figure (12 Jun) is 187pd on 8 Jun and the peak in January was 4,232pd (7-day average).)
To reiterate: "Put it this way, it's not going to be in the thousands, and the NHS can handle it (see Test 2).
[By all means flag these analyses and use them as a stick to beat me in late August.]"


McWobble said:


> This is worse than an assumption, this 10% factor is an arbitrary fudge factor. Worse, it has no basis on reality.
> The delta variant has a R0 of at least 6, and modelling suggests it may be as high as 8. 85-90% of the population need to have been infected or vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity.
> The delta variant will only die out when the vulnerable population falls below 10-15%. It will not simply stop when it has infected 10% of those vulnerable to infection. There is no mechanism that will do so! Making the hidden assumption that there is, as you've done, unfortunately has the effect of invalidating any conclusion you might make from your analysis.
> Overall, if the hospitalisation fraction for the vaccinated really is 1% of those who become ill, I'd expect total numbers to be 10-15% lower than my above figure, as the infection rate dies away as herd immunity is reached. However, hospitalisations from those who're unvaccinated or only have had one jab will be significantly higher than your estimate.


Quoting @McWobble “if the hospitalisation fraction for the vaccinated really is 1% of those who become ill, I'd expect total numbers to be 10-15% lower than my above figure [“a peak of 4,800 hospitalisations per day.”]”
My estimate was a peak of 1160pd. I had not referred to herd immunity in my estimates.
28 Jun: How are we going? They seem to have stopped publishing hospital admissions: last data are 227 on 22 Jun: a steady increase of about 3 per day (UK).


----------



## classic33 (28 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> *I responded (on 12 Jun):*
> "Reworking, adding in the already vaccinated as @McWobble suggested.
> 10% (basis for that estimate shared upthread) chance that those susceptible will catch it. The average fraction of those that catch it who end up in hospital is 1% (another *assumption* which I'm not certain is robust, but I've seen quoted), Spread over 30 days (see previous 'model') 30 days either side of peak that'd suggest (planning figures) = 580pd, peaking at (estimate) 1160pd. (NB Latest figure (12 Jun) is 187pd on 8 Jun and the peak in January was 4,232pd (7-day average).)
> To reiterate: "Put it this way, it's not going to be in the thousands, and the NHS can handle it (see Test 2).
> ...


To a post made on the 13th June?


----------



## Ajax Bay (28 Jun 2021)

You're right: I responded on the 13th. Very well spotted. How do you think hospitalisations will go, @classic33 ?


----------



## classic33 (28 Jun 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> You're right: I responded on the 13th. Very well spotted. How do you think hospitalisations will go, @classic33 ?


Slight increase locally last week. Whether they go up this week remains to be seen. But, according to the council, cases are on the rise.

Problem is the local health service is split across two councils. One has a higher case rate than the other.


----------



## midlife (29 Jun 2021)

Something is a bit different in the last week or so. Clinics and operations changed and cancelled as staff are told to self isolate. 

Either test and trace are stepping up to the plate or there is more virus circulating in the community. Hope the impact on NHS services due to staff isolating doesn't derail getting back on track.....


----------



## classic33 (29 Jun 2021)

Ireland may delay indoor dining for a further two weeks, due to an increase in the new variant. 
Did they open/start too soon here?


----------



## Pale Rider (30 Jun 2021)

It appears lots of Scots returned from their footie trip to London with an unwanted bonus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57667163


----------



## classic33 (30 Jun 2021)

And a third/booster jab, for the over fifties announced.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57667987


----------



## vickster (30 Jun 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> It appears lots of Scots returned from their footie trip to London with an unwanted bonus.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57667163


Or they took it with them


----------



## Johnno260 (30 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> Or they took it with them


Yup goes both ways, I was worried when I saw how packed the stands were.

I know some of these events are test beds as well


----------



## Johnno260 (30 Jun 2021)

I had some people questioning the numbers going up, but the vaccinated numbers rising as well.

All I could think was it may show the vaccine is working to stop some infections but also it’s reducing the severity of the illness


----------



## vickster (30 Jun 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> Yup goes both ways, I was worried when I saw how packed the stands were.
> 
> I know some of these events are test beds as well


They mostly weren’t in the stadium though according to link. For some to me at least unfathomable reason, thousands travelled to London to watch in a pub? Why not watch in Scotland


----------



## Johnno260 (30 Jun 2021)

vickster said:


> They mostly weren’t in the stadium though according to link. For some to me at least unfathomable reason, thousands travelled to London to watch in a pub? Why not watch in Scotland


 
that seems a little dense but believable, I’m kinda not surprised anymore


----------



## cambsno (30 Jun 2021)

classic33 said:


> Ireland may delay indoor dining for a further two weeks, due to an increase in the new variant.
> Did they open/start too soon here?



No, because otherwise we would never open anything.


----------



## classic33 (30 Jun 2021)

cambsno said:


> No, because otherwise we would never open anything.


_"DUBLIN, June 29 (Reuters) - Ireland said on Tuesday it will restrict indoor drinking and eating in bars and restaurants to those who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 or who have previously been infected by it due to concerns about the Delta variant."_

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ine-drink-inside-pubs-restaurants-2021-06-29/


----------



## kingrollo (3 Jul 2021)

I now know of 3 people double jabbed - who have recently got covid. One requiring hospital treatment.

What's anyone else s experience?


----------



## classic33 (3 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I now know of 3 people double jabbed - who have recently got covid. One requiring hospital treatment.
> 
> What's anyone else s experience?


Knew one that died from it, mid March this year.


----------



## vickster (3 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> Knew one that died from it, mid March this year.


How old were they? Health status?


----------



## classic33 (3 Jul 2021)

vickster said:


> How old were they? Health status?


Early 70's. Seemed in good health when I last saw him, before he started isolating.


----------



## vickster (3 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> Early 70's. Seemed in good health when I last saw him, before he started isolating.


And double vaccinated? How long between 2nd and getting Covid?
Immune system less good as age


----------



## lane (3 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I now know of 3 people double jabbed - who have recently got covid. One requiring hospital treatment.
> 
> What's anyone else s experience?



My experience is I am not personally aware of anyone double jabbed who has got Covid. Although I think personal experiences are more or less irrelevant it is the averages we need to look at and clearly the chances of ending up in hospital and especially dead are very low once you have a double jab but they are not zero.


----------



## classic33 (3 Jul 2021)

vickster said:


> And double vaccinated? How long between 2nd and getting Covid?
> Immune system less good as age


Within a month of the second.
I found out in early May he'd died.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (3 Jul 2021)

I spoke to someone at work yesterday, fully double jabbed, out of hospital a few days ago. Mid 50s, otherwise well. 

Lost 10kgs. Being monitored as may have triggered diabetes. 

It's not just flu. 

[agree though with the point above @lane that the overall stats are what matters, not personal anecdote. It's the personal experience that brings it home though]


----------



## lane (3 Jul 2021)

It could happen to you but it probably won't is the best way of looking at it - for me at any rate.

Edit - and I feel a lot safer than when I was working in school in the autumn with no jabs. If I didn't get it then I probably won't get it now!


----------



## newfhouse (3 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I now know of 3 people double jabbed - who have recently got covid. One requiring hospital treatment.
> 
> What's anyone else s experience?


Spiegelhalter and Masters explain why most people that die of COVID now will have been vaccinated. Risk is massively reduced but it’s still not zero.

https://www.theguardian.com/theobse...e-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

Government ,"won't be telling people what to do" after the 19th 'but it is still essential everyone gets vaccinated".


----------



## AuroraSaab (4 Jul 2021)

I do worry that people are seeing being doubled jabbed as making you invincible to covid. There are bound to be deaths as we won't all have the same level of immune response to the jab and the virus might trigger other stuff in some people.

I would happily wear my mask in shops etc for as long as necessary. I'll certainly wear it after the regs change until I feel more confident about things.


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

It's not the jab that makes you invincible it's the football.


----------



## Milzy (4 Jul 2021)

It would have been a better idea to fully open up tomorrow but make masks compulsory until New Year’s Eve.


----------



## cambsno (4 Jul 2021)

Milzy said:


> It would have been a better idea to fully open up tomorrow but make masks compulsory until New Year’s Eve.



Depends - going round Tesco... not too fussed apart from the selfish dicks who 'cant wear one'.

Going to pub - no, seems pointless being able to sit maskless then have to put one on to go to the loo, plus opening up means standing around at bar etc...


----------



## pawl (4 Jul 2021)

AuroraSaab said:


> I do worry that people are seeing being doubled jabbed as making you invincible to covid. There are bound to be deaths as we won't all have the same level of immune response to the jab and the virus might trigger other stuff in some people.
> 
> I would happily wear my mask in shops etc for as long as necessary. I'll certainly wear it after the regs change until I feel more confident about things.



Me to.I’m 80 in good health and intend to remain so Double vaccinated I will continue to take all relevant precautions Concerns me that records show a75%increase in the variant


----------



## KnittyNorah (4 Jul 2021)

AuroraSaab said:


> I do worry that people are seeing being doubled jabbed as making you invincible to covid. There are bound to be deaths as we won't all have the same level of immune response to the jab and the virus might trigger other stuff in some people.
> 
> I would happily wear my mask in shops etc for as long as necessary. I'll certainly wear it after the regs change until I feel more confident about things.



I'm entirely with you on this. I've actually sent off for some much better masks - FFP3 - in order to protect _myself _against the vastly-increased number of non-mask wearers I know I'm going to encounter on public transport, in shops etc. I'll continue wearing a 'normal' mask in most situations to protect those around me - but will keep an FFP3 handy for when _I'm _the one who feels the need for enhanced protection against others. Crowded, poor ventilation etc and can't leave.


----------



## AuroraSaab (4 Jul 2021)

I could well be sticking with the mask wearing in shops until after Christmas I reckon. I at least want to see how the data looks a couple of months after we've dropped all the precautions, but I also want to see if any new variants emerge. I appreciate some people struggle with the mask wearing but it's been no hardship for me so I'll carry on.


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> I'm entirely with you on this. I've actually sent off for some much better masks - FFP3 - in order to protect _myself _against the vastly-increased number of non-mask wearers I know I'm going to encounter on public transport, in shops etc. I'll continue wearing a 'normal' mask in most situations to protect those around me - but will keep an FFP3 handy for when _I'm _the one who feels the need for enhanced protection against others. Crowded, poor ventilation etc and can't leave.



I've used a cloth mask with a 2.5 mq filter insert from the start of mask wearing protects both me and others.

Saying we will make mask wearing optional - when the whole idea of a mask was to protect the other person - is fooking stupid. It only makes sense to wear one to protect YOU after the 19th.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Saying we will make mask wearing optional - when the whole idea of a mask was to protect the other person is fooking stupid



This. 

And the whole libertarian rhetoric that goes with it - time for people to take personal responsibility yadda yadda.

Your personal risk is largely dictated by *other* people's behaviour. I can't take "personal responsibility" for the overall prevalence of COVID.

Viruses are not responsive to rhetoric.


----------



## Craig the cyclist (4 Jul 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> I've actually sent off for some much better masks - FFP3



Be careful with this. FFP3 masks need to be 'fit tested' to be effective*. Just being FFP3 itself confers only a little additional benefit. They just become expensive ordinary masks. Once fit tested you need to take time and care to fit it properly, you can't just whack it on and be better protected.

Probably better to stick to some double layer ordinary masks and keep your sensible distance.

*My experience of this is that I was a large NHS Trusts Fit Testing lead from Mar-June last year!


----------



## KnittyNorah (4 Jul 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Be careful with this. FFP3 masks need to be 'fit tested' to be effective*. Just being FFP3 itself confers only a little additional benefit. They just become expensive ordinary masks. Once fit tested you need to take time and care to fit it properly, you can't just whack it on and be better protected.
> 
> Probably better to stick to some double layer ordinary masks and keep your sensible distance.
> 
> *My experience of this is that I was a large NHS Trusts Fit Testing lead from Mar-June last year!



Yes I know this; I have worked in radiation physics most of my life and am very accustomed to using far more effective PPE (and in some very difficult environments, too) than has ever been made available to 'ordinary' medical staff. In some situations - public transport for instance - it is impossible to 'keep your sensible distance'. In those situations it is better to remove oneself from it - as I have done once or twice already - but that is not always possible.


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> This.
> 
> And the whole libertarian rhetoric that goes with it - time for people to take personal responsibility yadda yadda.
> 
> ...



Absolutely and note they don't take that approach with the vaccine but tell everyone they should get it AND make it compulsory for some if they want to keep their job.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Jul 2021)

AuroraSaab said:


> I could well be sticking with the mask wearing in shops until after Christmas I reckon. I at least want to see how the data looks a couple of months after we've dropped all the precautions, but I also want to see if any new variants emerge. I appreciate some people struggle with the mask wearing but it's been no hardship for me so I'll carry on.



Can you not make an educated guess how the data will look in a couple of months ?

In about 6 weeks we have gone from 1.5k daily cases to approaching 30k daily cases.

We drop mask wearing, open everything up fully, it's a safe bet imo that cases aren't going down.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (4 Jul 2021)

The number of reported cases is likely to decrease rapidly due to reduced levels of testing when the schools break up. If this coincides with most restrictions being removed then hotspots are likely to pop up without warning. If this does not lead to high levels of hospitalizations it may not matter but this cannot be guaranteed. 

I have never been in any doubt that this government will prioritise the economy over my health (consider policies on air pollution, climate change etc.)


----------



## kingrollo (4 Jul 2021)

Low Gear Guy said:


> The number of reported cases is likely to decrease rapidly due to reduced levels of testing when the schools break up. If this coincides with most restrictions being removed then hotspots are likely to pop up without warning. If this does not lead to high levels of hospitalizations it may not matter but this cannot be guaranteed.
> 
> I have never been in any doubt that this government will prioritise the economy over my health (consider policies on air pollution, climate change etc.)



Yep. Hence eat out to help out.

They absolutely will do as you say.


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

Increased vaccinations will help but my guess is at least 100k cases a day at least actual not reported.


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

My opinion is that Whittey and Valance will never admit it now, but they are supporting abolishing restrictions to go for herd immunity again over summer before winter pressure on the NHS. They tried it before but the level of hospitalizations and deaths meant they had to abandon but no doubt the policy has remained close to their hearts and now they see a chance to implement it.


----------



## kingrollo (4 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> My opinion is that Whittey and Valance will never admit it now, but they are supporting abolishing restrictions to go for herd immunity again over summer before winter pressure on the NHS. They tried it before but the level of hospitalizations and deaths meant they had to abandon but no doubt the policy has remained close to their hearts and now they see a chance to implement it.



I think they want people out and about in the summer.
Forward thinking isn't Johnson s strong point. Leave the NHS to pick up the pieces in November.

I expect a another variant of convenience to be found when the cases get to high.
.
..


----------



## DRM (4 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I think they want people out and about in the summer.
> Forward thinking isn't Johnson s strong point. Leave the NHS to pick up the pieces in November.
> 
> I expect a another variant of convenience to be found when the cases get to high.
> ...


https://metro.co.uk/2021/07/03/unus...could-make-it-resistant-to-vaccines-14867725/
Here you are, there is never going to be an end to all of this


----------



## AuroraSaab (4 Jul 2021)

I did wonder if they were hoping a combination of jabs and herd immunity would see us through the winter. 

Honestly, I swing from relieved and optimistic to depressed all over again about it all. Not that bothered about myself, but sad for my kids, who have lost out massively, and still scared of inadvertently passing it on to older family and friends. People have suffered much worse than our family though so we will just keep plodding on and take what steps we can to minimise the risk.


----------



## cambsno (4 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> My opinion is that Whittey and Valance will never admit it now, but they are supporting abolishing restrictions to go for herd immunity again over summer before winter pressure on the NHS. They tried it before but the level of hospitalizations and deaths meant they had to abandon but no doubt the policy has remained close to their hearts and now they see a chance to implement it.



It s about the only option. We have only ever eradicated 1 virus in history - smallpox. It would be impossible to eradicate Covid so we just have to accept it as we do flu.


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

DRM said:


> https://metro.co.uk/2021/07/03/unus...could-make-it-resistant-to-vaccines-14867725/
> Here you are, there is never going to be an end to all of this



I don't see how that can be the case - are you forgetting each step of the unlocking is "irreversible"!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Jul 2021)

.


cambsno said:


> we just have to accept it as we do flu.



Right. Of course we do. Like we "just accept" HIV?

Or "just accept" Ebola?

"Just accept" is a meaningless soundbite. 

It always strikes me as "I want this to go away so I'm going to pretend it's not here"


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

We can certainly accept it at a certain level of hospitalizations and deaths comparable to the flu although realistically the NHS would need more funding. But clearly if a variant comes along that evades immunity and threatens to overwhelm the NHS action would be unavoidable. That's why irreversible is bollocks.


----------



## PK99 (4 Jul 2021)

AuroraSaab said:


> I did wonder if they were hoping a *combination of jabs and herd immunity *would see us through the winter.



Your post seems confused.


Herd immunity is the only way out of a pandemic. 

The question is how to achieve herd immunity:


Infection of a large proportion of the population 
Vaccination of a large proportion of the population
Combination of the two


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> Your post seems confused.
> 
> 
> Herd immunity is the only way out of a pandemic.
> ...



We have never reached heard immunity with Flu we get it every year because it changes. Why would Covid be any different? Presumably if Flu had a similar hospitalisation and fatality rate as Covid and had an R number as high as Covid it would have been a much bigger problem over the years but that is what we probably face going forward with Covid.


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

We have had Flu for many years; now we have something different called Covid. We will treat it the same as the Flu even though it is different. That is where it all went wrong in the first place but for some reason people still seem fixated on the idea, presumably because they are stupid.

Edit - the best thing to treat like the Flu - is probably the Flu.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> We have never reached heard immunity with Flu we get it every year because it changes. Why would Covid be any different? Presumably if Flu had a similar hospitalisation and fatality rate as Covid and had an R number as high as Covid it would have been a much bigger problem over the years but that is what we probably face going forward with Covid.



Covid mutates much more slowly than flu but is much more deadly.

Flu as an analogy is pretty unhelpful, I think.

[Edit: you beat me to it!]


----------



## kingrollo (4 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> Your post seems confused.
> 
> 
> Herd immunity is the only way out of a pandemic.
> ...



Herd immunity imo implies people become immune by catching and recovering from the virus.

Fully vaccinated and protected is the way out of this crisis..maybe semantics but thats different to herd immunity.


----------



## classic33 (4 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Herd immunity imo implies people become immune by catching and recovering from the virus.
> 
> Fully vaccinated and protected is the way out of this crisis..maybe semantics but thats different to herd immunity.


How do those under the age of 12(at present) manage. They'll not be vaccinated under current rules.


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> How do those under the age of 12(at present) manage. They'll not be vaccinated under current rules.



Under the age of 18 under current rules!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Herd immunity imo implies people become immune by catching and recovering from the virus.
> 
> Fully vaccinated and protected is the way out of this crisis..maybe semantics but thats different to herd immunity.



Herd immunity is normally used to include both naturally and vaccine acquired immunity. 

There is not a single example of her immunity being acquired solely through natural infection.


----------



## classic33 (4 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Under the age of 18 under current rules!


Pfizer vaccine is approved for use on kids down to the age of 12. Nothing available so far for below the age of 12.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (4 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> Pfizer vaccine is approved for use on kids down to the age of 12. Nothing available so far for below the age of 12.



Approved but not actually available.


----------



## Johnno260 (4 Jul 2021)

Also bear in mind there is a chunk of the population that will for whatever reason refuse any vaccination, a fair number attend those marches in London.

I don’t know how many there are in total but hopefully not a significant %


----------



## PK99 (4 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Herd immunity imo implies people become immune by catching and recovering from the virus.
> 
> Fully vaccinated and protected is the way out of this crisis..maybe semantics but thats different to herd immunity.



The dictionary definiton is:
_Herd Immunity
resistance to the spread of an infectious disease within a population that is based on *pre-existing immunity of a high proportion of individuals as a result of previous infection or vaccination*_

And this works to the same definition:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases...th/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808


----------



## PK99 (4 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> *Herd immunity imo implies people become immune by catching and recovering from the virus.*
> 
> Fully vaccinated and protected is the way out of this crisis..maybe semantics but thats different to herd immunity.



Your understanding, as stated above, is wrong:


The percentage of people who need to be *immune* in order to achieve *herd immunity* varies with each disease. For example, *herd immunity* against *measles* requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that *measles* will not spread among those who are vaccinated.31 Dec 2020

*Herd immunity, lockdowns and COVID-19 Coronavirus disease*


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

Given the R number seems to increase with every variant, a proportion won' t be vaccinated, vaccines are not 100% effective and people infected get re infected, immunity decreases over time and new variants will be able to evade to an extent previously aquired immunity, it seems that herd immunity may well never be achieved.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (4 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Herd immunity is normally used to include both naturally and vaccine acquired immunity.
> 
> There is not a single example of her immunity being acquired solely through natural infection.


Medieval Europeans acquired immunity of a sort to flu and other viruses. This became evident when the Spanish invaded South America and took their diseases with them.

This situation occurred after many generations of premature deaths I.e. herd immunity was eventually reached at a high price.


----------



## PK99 (4 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Given the R number seems to increase with every variant, a proportion won' t be vaccinated, vaccines are not 100% effective and people infected get re infected, immunity decreases over time and new variants will be able to evade to an extent previously aquired immunity, it seems that herd immunity may well never be achieved.



That seems to be the case, as it is with the ever mutating influenza virus. We cope with that and the annual death toll. But provided there is sufficient (herd) immunity to slow transmission, and protection from major illness if infected, the longterm covid position will be similar.


----------



## lane (4 Jul 2021)

Except Covid seems worse than the Flu in terms of death and hospitalizations so will be harder to live with and one way or another will impact people's lives more than Flu has.


----------



## Wobblers (5 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I responded (on 12 Jun):
> "Reworking, adding in the already vaccinated as @McWobble suggested.
> 10% (basis for that estimate shared upthread) chance that those susceptible will catch it. The average fraction of those that catch it who end up in hospital is 1% (another *assumption* which I'm not certain is robust, but I've seen quoted), Spread over 30 days (see previous 'model') 30 days either side of peak that'd suggest (planning figures) = 580pd, peaking at (estimate) 1160pd. (NB Latest figure (12 Jun) is 187pd on 8 Jun and the peak in January was 4,232pd (7-day average).)
> To reiterate: "Put it this way, it's not going to be in the thousands, and the NHS can handle it (see Test 2).
> ...



They have updated the hospitalisation figures. Like you, I'm a little suspicious over the 1% figure.

For the 29th June: 358 hospitalisations. Given that it takes about 7 days from the onset of symptoms to hospitalisation, we need to look at the new infections on the 22nd June: 11481.

That's a 3% conversion from infection to hospitalisation. That's much worse than I was expecting. Granted, most of those hospitalised will be those who aren't fully vaccinated, but there is still the worrying indication that Delta has in part negated the vaccination benefit of reduced likelihood of hospitalisation.

We can extrapolate. It appears that infections are doubling every ten days or so (and actually that may be conservative). Assuming that's the case, by the end of the month there will be eight times the number of new infections as there was today - that's 200,000. Likewise, hospitalisations will be eight times higher - and be exceeding 2000/day at that point. Note that it's estimated that around 150,000/day were being infected when the first lockdown was implemented back in March last year.

In short, we'll be right back in the same situation we were in at the start of the first lockdown. A reasonable upper end estimate of hospitalisations is 6000/day by the end of the first week in August. That's perilously close to overwhelming the NHS. We can hope - perhaps even expect - that continued vaccination will bring the hospitalisation rate to below the current 3%. But... I don't expect herd immunity to start to reduce the numbers of infections until late August - so this high rate of hospital admissions will continue for weeks. I fear August will be touch and go for the NHS.

Note that none of the above is intended to be rigorous! - calling it "semi-quantitative" is rather generous. But that''s not my intention, rather, I want to emphasise that we're scarcely into the foothills of this third wave, and it's likely to be much worse than most people appreciate. My fear is that the last half of summer is likely to be much tougher than any of us would hope for.

That we're now seeing talk of mask wearing being a matter of "personal conscience" after the 19th July - this is extraordinarily unwise. Removing restrictions is likely to worsen the situation. It might be a good idea to avoid crowds and crowded areas (especially indoors) for at least couple of months. Especially if you're in a vulnerable category, or haven't yet been fully vaccinated.


----------



## DCLane (5 Jul 2021)

@McWobble I agree with you.

It seems that we've suddenly moved to a fully open society, leaving everyone to survive how they can. An 'if you're not vaccinated then that's your problem' approach.

Sajid Javed's looking at the financial impact, not the health one, so it becomes a free-for-all from July 19,th.

I've been careful, but around a lot of people this past week due to my son racing a lot. Now that's reducing I'm stepping back and not mixing. Otley races were far too packed this week and too risky for my own health, even if I'm no longer classed as vulnerable


----------



## classic33 (5 Jul 2021)

One side effect I noticed after the easing of restrictions, the last two times, has been an increase in the number of places that were closed, now storing their bins on public footpaths.

This done in order to increase the outdoor space available. None fastened shut, and often overturned. If we're not careful, the next problem will be rats.


----------



## mjr (5 Jul 2021)

Low Gear Guy said:


> I have never been in any doubt that this government will prioritise the economy over my health (consider policies on air pollution, climate change etc.)


The policies on air pollution and so on are mostly pretty good, but unimplemented and unenforced except for a few groups dragging government through the courts.


----------



## lane (5 Jul 2021)

It's really impossible to see any scenario where daily hospitalizations are not in 4 figures wihin the next few weeks.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (5 Jul 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Daily hospitalisations have never reached a 4 figures on a daily basis, if that started today, we would have no beds by Thursday.



I think you must be at cross purposes on metrics. 

Daily hospitalizations reached over 4000 in January. 

From the govt dashboard:


----------



## Johnno260 (5 Jul 2021)

I think looking at the numbers we see daily case rises, if hospitalization and mortality stay on a level it means vaccination is working and we have to hope that is the case.

If we start seeing spikes then we have to ask questions.

For example from the US office I work for and news reports deaths in the US are mainly in the un-vaccinated, people here need to look at those reports and question their logic in refusing the vaccine.

The vaccinated deaths are mainly from high risk demographic groups, I have shutdown multiple people on social media now claiming death rates with vaccinated are high, as they straw man the data and pick high risk groups to push their narrative, these groups will be high risk regardless of the vaccine or not.

It's the same as the scare mongers claiming winter for the double vaccinated who are taking a booster will be the end of them, they will be taking the 3rd shot as they're high risk, they will be the highest possible mortality rate for obvious reasons.


----------



## Craig the cyclist (5 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Why do you write complete nonsense of course they have they are already nearly 400 some days and four figures is 1,000 which has been reached many times in the past. You have to be really careful when posting to make sure you dont come across as a complete idiot.





roubaixtuesday said:


> I think you must be at cross purposes on metrics.
> 
> Daily hospitalizations reached over 4000 in January.
> 
> ...



No, no, no, no. 

Each day there were sometimes 000s of people in hospital of course, that is different to daily hospitalisations, which is the amount of new people admitted each day.

If we had 1001 people admitted every single day we would have no beds by the end of the week. There may be 1001 people in hospital today, then 2 get discharged and 2 die, and are replaced by 4 new people, that means we have a daily hospitalisation of 4, but an in-patient population on a daily basis of 1001.

If the daily hospitalisation was 1001, then tomorrow we have 2002, Wednesday is 3003, Thursday is 4004, Friday is 5005 and Saturday we all knock it on the head and go home because we won't have any beds.

@lane no need to call me an idiot is there?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (5 Jul 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> No, no, no, no.
> 
> Each day there were sometimes 000s of people in hospital of course, that is different to daily hospitalisations, which is the amount of new people admitted each day.
> 
> ...



So by "Daily hospitalisations", you mean the net increase beds occupied?

That's clear, but different to the language commonly used for COVID.

I'm not aware of your metric being routinely reported - we have admissions (commonly referred to as hospitalisations) and, beds occupied and ICU (or "ventilated") beds commonly reported.


----------



## lane (5 Jul 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> No, no, no, no.
> 
> Each day there were sometimes 000s of people in hospital of course, that is different to daily hospitalisations, which is the amount of new people admitted each day.
> 
> ...



No no no

There are two metrics reported each day hospital ADMISSIONS and also TOTAL number of people in hospital.


----------



## Craig the cyclist (5 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> So by "Daily hospitalisations", you mean the net increase beds occupied?


No, 'daily hospilisations' is the amount of people admitted each day, it is not a cumulative number where you add the amount of new admissions to the people already in. There will not 000s admitted every day, but there will be times when the total amount admitted tips the total population in hospital over 000.



roubaixtuesday said:


> That's clear, but different to the language commonly used for COVID.


This will be interesting, what language do they use in Covid that I don't understand?



roubaixtuesday said:


> I'm not aware of your metric being routinely reported - we have admissions (commonly referred to as hospitalisations) and, beds occupied and ICU (or "ventilated") beds commonly reported.


Which metric is that?


----------



## Craig the cyclist (5 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> No no no
> 
> There are two metrics reported each day hospital ADMISSIONS and also TOTAL number of people in hospital.



So if you are IN HOSPITAL, then you are not a DAILY ADMISSION are you? You are already in, so you don't count as a daily hospitilastion.

Oh, by the way, there are more than two metrics reported each day.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (5 Jul 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> No, 'daily hospilisations' is the amount of people admitted each day, it is not a cumulative number where you add the amount of new admissions to the people already in. There will not 000s admitted every day, but there will be times when the total amount admitted tips the total population in hospital over 000.
> 
> 
> This will be interesting, what language do they use in Covid that I don't understand?
> ...



I'm confused by your post. 

As posted above, I understand "hospitalizations" to mean the the uk govt reported "patients admitted".

They also report "patients in hospital"

Both have been well over 1000 during the pandemic, the former over 4,000 and the latter near 40,000. So I have no idea which figure it is that you say has "never reached a 4 figures on a daily basis", as both of these have. 

I'm not claiming that you don't understand anything, just that this discussion is at cross purposes somehow. 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/


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## lane (5 Jul 2021)

My son has been contacted by the college regarding a positive case at the college. He has broken up and is now on holiday from college. The implication being he needs to self isolate. That got me wondering what power schools and colleges have in such situations as opposed to being contacted by test and trace where there is a clear legal requirement to self isolate. Going back to the legislation the only people who have a legal duty to tell you to self isolate are listed below. I don't think but wouldn't be certain the school are not covered in the list below. I know people will reply say to self isolate anyway - and that may be the correct advice - but irrespective I have always been interested throughout in understanding what we have to do legally and what is guidance as this has been deliberately obscured and caused many problems. 


The persons specified for the purpose of paragraphs (1) and (2) are—

(a)the Secretary of State;

(b)a person employed or engaged for the purposes of the health service (within the meaning of section 275 of the National Health Service Act 2006(7) or section 108 of the National Health Service (Scotland) Act 1978(8));

(c)a person employed or engaged by a local authority.


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## midlife (5 Jul 2021)

I don’t think they can. Indeed being pinged on your phone is only enforceable if you have been pinged for going to a venue and not a social contact.


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## mjr (5 Jul 2021)

So it looks like the new Health Minister thinks covid can be treated like flu and the PM is pushing forwards with the "personal responsibility" nonsense. How can I take personal responsibility for the nutters who live in this borough? So I resent this approach to public health and the limitations it will put on my life as I try to avoid the shelf-lickers.

Peter Walker summarises at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...id-rules-england-what-boris-johnson-announced

This could be bad for business in at least two ways I can see:

1. If many people are cautious, demand for outdoor drinking/dining/shopping is going to outstrip supply and if the market does not respond swiftly (hindered as it is by apparent council refusals to remove parking and expand street terraces), that demand will probably switch to takeaways and online which are variously cheaper and often not as locally-owned.

2. If many people are reckless, infections will soar, the "variant factory" theory may be proved correct and we'll get another business-nuking lockdown this autumn until hopefully the heroes can develop and deploy a vaccine for the new variant.

Of course, it could all work out fine, but why risk it needlessly instead of keeping a few of the less onerous restrictions and introducing some easements for businesses to trade outside this summer? Is it a deliberate attempt to infect people in a repeat of last spring's failed "herd immunity" plan?


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## lane (5 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> So it looks like the new Health Minister thinks covid can be treated like flu and the PM is pushing forwards with the "personal responsibility" nonsense. How can I take personal responsibility for the nutters who live in this borough? So I resent this approach to public health and the limitations it will put on my life as I try to avoid the shelf-lickers.
> 
> Peter Walker summarises at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...id-rules-england-what-boris-johnson-announced
> 
> ...



I don't think Boris is going for herd immunity I think he's just idiotic as per Cummings characterisation. I think Whittey and Vallance are happy to have another go at herd immunity as I posted upthread.


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## deptfordmarmoset (5 Jul 2021)

One of Tim Spector's principal concerns last week was that the delta variant doesn't present with what we think of as ''classic'' covid symptoms, at least among the younger. The fever has largely gone and symptoms are now very similar to a heavy cold - headaches, runny nose, cough, etc. His challenge to the government and the NHS was to inform the public of this change in how the disease presents. Unless Whitty slipped that in while I was having a moment of inattention, they've clearly failed that challenge.

It leaves us with people not suspecting they have covid even though they know they are not well and so they don't self-isolate or take steps to protect elderly and vulnerable people in their households and neighbourhood.


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## Rusty Nails (5 Jul 2021)

Westminster Tory politicians on the news keep on saying the link between cases and hospitalisation has been "broken". Welsh politicians take the more accurate, but less vainglorious and headline-grabbing, approach of saying it has been "weakened".


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## lane (5 Jul 2021)

Personal responsibility isn't it like when you have to avoid the drunk driver hitting you


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## kingrollo (5 Jul 2021)

"if not now then when ?" 

Nice to see following science in action.


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## kingrollo (5 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Personal responsibility isn't it like when you have to avoid the drunk driver hitting you



Mask wearing & protection isn't protecting you personally it protects others. So logically

Why you should protect everyone else if no one is protecting me ?

Much more in line with the Tory heartbeat of me, me, me, though !


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## roubaixtuesday (5 Jul 2021)

Govt "plan" published. 

Short version: fark it, we just can't be arsed with this palavar any more. 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...er-2021-roadmap/covid-19-response-summer-2021

(Though, laughably, they are keeping border controls, while we have one of the highest infection rates in the world!)


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## mjr (5 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> "if not now then when ?"
> 
> Nice to see following science in action.


I think their scientists may have answered "we don't know" instead of "later".


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## lane (5 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Mask wearing & protection isn't protecting you personally it protects others. So logically
> 
> Why you should protect everyone else if no one is protecting me ?
> 
> Much more in line with the Tory heartbeat of me, me, me, though !



No such thing as society only individuals comes to mind


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## lane (5 Jul 2021)

I think that we will eventually learn to live with Covid. Just probably not in the way the Government currently thinks we will. So they are half right, maybe.


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## PK99 (5 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> No such thing as society only individuals comes to mind



_“I think we've been through a period where too many people have been given to understand that if they have a problem, it's the government's job to cope with it. 'I have a problem, I'll get a grant.' 'I'm homeless, the government must house me.' They're casting their problem on society. And, you know,* there is no such thing as society*. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour. People have got the entitlements too much in mind, without the obligations. There's no such thing as entitlement, unless someone has first met an obligation." _– Women’s Own, 31 October 1987.


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## KnittyNorah (5 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> I think that we will eventually learn to live with Covid. Just probably not in the way the Government currently thinks we will.



I t's not going to go away, however much we might want it to, and the entire world will have to learn to live with it - however reluctant and fearful we may be to do so. We will all - eventually - deal with it in our own ways, which will be different everywhere and for everyone. Masking, regular testing, avoidance of crowds of strangers and keeping away from children will be in my plans for the foreseeable future.

Perhaps, in time, it may mutate itself into a much less damaging form and I hope, long before that happens, some form of effective, affordable. preventative treatment will be developed to 'stop it in its tracks' if administered promptly.


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## Edwardoka (5 Jul 2021)

The ads on spotify I've been getting, I think from NHS Scotland, "restrictions are changing..." ending with "...we've come this far, we're not giving in" have aged like milk. Giving in is *exactly *what we're doing.

Without wanting to go full conspiracy theory, I find it curious how the footage of the health secretary canoodling was leaked to the press just a couple of weeks before another incredibly stupid, arbitrary, unscientific deadline for easing restrictions, despite at the time of writing, the new daily infections being more than 10 times they were 6 weeks ago?

We've been told to use personal responsibility when what is required is collective responsibility, and it's clear that many people are profoundly selfish and deeply untrustworthy. I for one cannot honestly envisage a scenario in which I will ever go into an enclosed public place ever again.


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## Flick of the Elbow (6 Jul 2021)

Boris throwing caution to the wind. Horrific 😥


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## shep (6 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> I for one cannot honestly envisage a scenario in which I will ever go into an enclosed public place ever again.


Seriously?

I take it you haven't been working or going to the pub or shopping at all during all this?


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## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> _“I think we've been through a period where too many people have been given to understand that if they have a problem, it's the government's job to cope with it. 'I have a problem, I'll get a grant.' 'I'm homeless, the government must house me.' They're casting their problem on society. And, you know,* there is no such thing as society*. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour. People have got the entitlements too much in mind, without the obligations. There's no such thing as entitlement, unless someone has first met an obligation." _– Women’s Own, 31 October 1987.
> [





PK99 said:


> _“I think we've been through a period where too many people have been given to understand that if they have a problem, it's the government's job to cope with it. 'I have a problem, I'll get a grant.' 'I'm homeless, the government must house me.' They're casting their problem on society. And, you know,* there is no such thing as society*. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour. People have got the entitlements too much in mind, without the obligations. There's no such thing as entitlement, unless someone has first met an obligation." _– Women’s Own, 31 October 1987.



We need government to organise the workers to work while the 'entitled' live of the fat of the land.

Exploitation of man by man if you like


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## SpokeyDokey (6 Jul 2021)

This seems to be a sensible summation of where we are heading and one that I am comfortable with re underlying rationale: 

BBC News - Why it's time to think differently about Covid
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57678942


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## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

7 of the cricket team have just tested positive !!!

Rumours some pub landlords are outlawing mask wearing.!!

I can see us ramping up restrictions in a few months like they are doing in Israel - who have a high % of the population vaccinated.


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## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> This seems to be a sensible summation of where we are heading and one that I am comfortable with re underlying rationale:
> 
> BBC News - Why it's time to think differently about Covid
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57678942



Many people taking a tiny risk. Good anology. 

Personally this isn't going well. Imo.


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## Pale Rider (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> 7 of the cricket team have just tested positive !!!



A few games of cricket against Pakistan is hardly important in the context of the spread of a lethal virus, but this does raise an interesting question about lockdown easing.

At present, we have enough depth in our world beating one day squad to field another team.

But with Covid starting to run rampant again, isn't it almost inevitable those now set to play will also catch the virus?

Seems to me the lockdown easing measures are set for a collision course with the current rules surrounding the participation in professional team sport.


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## newfhouse (6 Jul 2021)

What is gained by relaxing the requirement to wear a face covering on public transport?


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## lane (6 Jul 2021)

And there we have it - a leopard doesn't change its spots. Chris Whitty - "keeping covid restriction will only delay wave". "Doing it in the summer has its advantages". He has never changed has he. 

Interesting he says that all adults won't have received two shots until early December. I didn't think it was going to be that long - vaccination centre here is only booked until end of next month? Also that doesn't make any sense if they are talking about giving third shots in the autumn.

The above taken from an article in the Guardian this morning.

Savid is talking about a peak of 100,000 infections a day and that seems to be what most of the scientists are hoping for, although they have limited data to go on. That's probably manageable in terms of hospitalisations although it will have a big impact on the NHS in terms of backlog etc. We are thought to have had a peak in March 2020 of 100,000 a day although it would have gone much higher if restrictions were not brought in. The new variant is more infectious but we have the vaccinations to reduce the R number so it's probably anyone's guess. Scientists talking about a gamble or calculated risk this morning. Clearly there is an assumption that if it has been got significantly wrong restrictions will be reintroduced - although I think Boris would be fairly reluctant.


----------



## Edwardoka (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Seriously?
> 
> I take it you haven't been working or going to the pub or shopping at all during all this?


1. I'm in IT, I never need step foot into an office ever again. I once made a bike ride around Arran much harder than it needed to be because I had to put a website live and be available in case something went wrong. I did the release on the ferry, and lugged a laptop around the island. So long as I had a mobile signal I could work from literally anywhere.

2. I went to the pub for dinner once during Eat Out To Help Out because the rest of my immediate family were adamant and if anyone got infected we all would have anyway. I hated it, there was so little discipline, and protocols were being ignored left, right and centre.

3. Home deliveries, for the most part. Whenever I've gone shopping I've been somewhat assured by the knowledge that there was recourse to deal with those who weren't wearing masks - a mask does little to protect the wearer, but lots to protect others from the wearer. Removing both that requirement and social distancing removes even the pretence of giving a toss.

I know that me being able to say "I won't go into enclosed public spaces again" is a privileged position - it's the people who work in public-facing positions who are getting the rug pulled from under them that I feel sorry for.


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## lane (6 Jul 2021)

newfhouse said:


> What is gained by relaxing the requirement to wear a face covering on public transport?



Well the only explanation I heard was that it was so people didn't feel public transport was a risky place to be and not use it - seems they have a very low opinion of the public's intelligence much more likely to have the opposite effect.

I heard on R4 yesterday evening think it was between 60% and 70% in favor of masks still being a legal requirement.


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## roubaixtuesday (6 Jul 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Seems to me the lockdown easing measures are set for a collision course with the current rules surrounding the participation in professional team sport.



Or indeed the rules surrounding the participation in "going to work" more generally...


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## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

Now, let's say this really is about personal responsibility and choices. Unless it is moved to telephone again, I will be going to hospital in Cambridge next month. I expect I will need to either ride it all or park and pedal because the gov-controlled trains will no longer be requiring masks, so I will need to eat before coming back. What cafes/restaurants will still be taking reasonable covid precautions? Will I bE effectively forced to choose between high-covid-risk and low-comfort options like eating takeaway outdoors possibly under an umbrella like during lockdown?


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## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

newfhouse said:


> What is gained by relaxing the requirement to wear a face covering on public transport?


Reduces the numbers willing to travel on it, which would otherwise expose the recent withdrawal of the 20 or more government-owned Networker Express AC units and some transfers of Electrostar units around London to cover the gaps exposed by that and the new Hitachis cracking up?


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## shep (6 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> 1. I'm in IT, I never need step foot into an office ever again. I once made a bike ride around Arran much harder than it needed to be because I had to put a website live and be available in case something went wrong. I did the release on the ferry, and lugged a laptop around the island. So long as I had a mobile signal I could work from literally anywhere.
> 
> 2. I went to the pub for dinner once during Eat Out To Help Out because the rest of my immediate family were adamant and if anyone got infected we all would have anyway. I hated it, there was so little discipline, and protocols were being ignored left, right and centre.
> 
> ...


Privileged position?

It sounds like hell to me!


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## Edwardoka (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Privileged position?
> 
> It sounds like hell to me!


Oh lawdy lawd I don't know where I'd be without my *peers quizzically at document* office, pubs and shopping


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## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> This seems to be a sensible summation of where we are heading and one that I am comfortable with re underlying rationale:
> 
> BBC News - Why it's time to think differently about Covid
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57678942


It can be interpreted many ways, such as it points out the massive unknowns about things like long covid and it does not justify removing all restrictions, plus it is pretty quiet about the risks to the unvaccinated and unvaccinatable, and that we still don't have great treatments for people who do get it bad.

It seems a reasonable summation but I don't think it supports the so-called plan for 19 July.


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## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> 3. Home deliveries, for the most part. Whenever I've gone shopping I've been somewhat assured by the knowledge that there was recourse to deal with those who weren't wearing masks - a mask does little to protect the wearer, but lots to protect others from the wearer. Removing both that requirement and social distancing removes even the pretence of giving a toss.


Some places still have open air markets, too, plus bigger stores you can look at websites for estimates of quieter times to shop (not lunchtime and just after school, for example!). Otherwise, I use village stores because I can get around them quicker and there is usually fewer than 5 people in one off-peak, so my total exposure is probably less than even the checkout queue in a big box store.


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## Low Gear Guy (6 Jul 2021)

newfhouse said:


> What is gained by relaxing the requirement to wear a face covering on public transport?


I have often wondered why it is necessary to wear a mask on the train or in the shop but not in a restaurant. It would be inconsistent to require a mask on the train but not in a crowded pub. Maybe the government wants to encourage you to spend lots of money in the pub.


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## DCLane (6 Jul 2021)

So ... Sajid Javid lets us know that self-isolation is gone from 16 August for anyone who's had both injections or is under 18. Just take a PCR test instead, which I'm guessing are improving in accuracy with further development over time.

Doesn't that put those who've not had the injections at risk?


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## shep (6 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> Oh lawdy lawd I don't know where I'd be without my *peers quizzically at document* office, pubs and shopping


In your 'happy place ' I would imagine, I'm happy you're happy. 

I know for a fact I'm happy and should be even more when things begin to open up Football, big shows, rallies, concerts.


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## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

newfhouse said:


> What is gained by relaxing the requirement to wear a face covering on public transport?


PR - covid has gone - go out and spend some money.


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## MrGrumpy (6 Jul 2021)

Lets hope more variants don`t throw a spanner in the works ! Was reading that Witty and Co are expecting/wanting this third wave now rather than later. Strong border controls will keep new variants in check, oh that`s hilarious ! Take a wee nose at whats going wrong in south america !


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## shep (6 Jul 2021)

If you think about it, how many people on here are suddenly going to throw caution to the wind and 'go mad?
Not many I would wager, if society is in any way similar then plenty of people will still be very cautious.


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## MrGrumpy (6 Jul 2021)

to be honest I’m looking forward to some relaxation. However I’m also wary , so won’t change much about what I do/did.


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## potsy (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> If you think about it, how many people on here are suddenly going to throw caution to the wind and 'go mad?
> Not many I would wager, if society is in any way similar then plenty of people will still be very cautious.


Exactly, from a personal point of view most of my activities are outdoor (walking, cycling) and other than that I will continue to wear a mask in the supermarket, don't really go to pubs... 
Not much will change in my life.


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## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> If you think about it, how many people on here are suddenly going to throw caution to the wind and 'go mad?
> Not many I would wager, if society is in any way similar then plenty of people will still be very cautious.


Seriously - I expects pubs and nightclubs will do a roaring trade in the early days. 

As a much younger man the worry of aids didn't prevent me getting laid as often as I possibly could. ! Young people aren't cautious - especially when hormones are in overdrive !!!

There's going to be a massive rise in infections. I feel those trying to get treatment for long covid. They will be the forgotten causalities in this.


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## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> If you think about it, how many people on here are suddenly going to throw caution to the wind and 'go mad?
> Not many I would wager, if society is in any way similar then plenty of people will still be very cautious.


You have posted you won't do anything not legally required, haven't you? And local facebook groups are full of "scamdemic" nobbers and it will only take enough of them to fark the town, not everyone or even a majority.


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## Ajax Bay (6 Jul 2021)

DCLane said:


> So ... Sajid Javid lets us know that self-isolation is gone from 16 August for anyone who's had both injections or is under 18. Just take a PCR test instead, which I'm guessing are improving in accuracy with further development over time.
> Doesn't that put those who've not had the injections at risk?


What is the assessed % accuracy of the PCR test?


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## Flick of the Elbow (6 Jul 2021)

For me, Fear of Long Covid trumps Fear of Missing Out by a long way. For once I am glad to be under the jurisdiction of television’s Nicola Sturgeon.


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## Buck (6 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> What is the assessed accuracy of the PCR test?



Indications are between 2-29% false negative, so 71-98% accurate. 

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1808.full.pdf


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## DCLane (6 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> What is the assessed accuracy of the PCR test?



Cochrane states it's 95.1% correctly diagnosed and 99% correctly ruled out: https://www.cochrane.org/CD013705/INFECTN_how-accurate-are-rapid-tests-diagnosing-covid-19


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## shep (6 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> You have posted you won't do anything not legally required, haven't you? And local facebook groups are full of "scamdemic" nobbers and it will only take enough of them to fark the town, not everyone or even a majority.


I'm not talking about me, I appear to be a minority on here, I'm referring to the one's concerned about lifting restrictions. 

My mask will be firmly chucked in bin!


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## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I'm not talking about me, I appear to be a minority on here, I'm referring to the one's concerned about lifting restrictions.
> 
> My mask will be firmly chucked in bin!


Why won't you talk about you? Why do you claim plenty of people are going to be cautious, when you yourself "are suddenly going to throw caution to the wind and go mad"? Sorry if you feel I ask you too much, I'm fascinated by your reasoning which seems a mystery to me: you don't seem to be a "scamdemic" proponent, yet you won't voluntarily take simple minor steps to reduce the risk to your neighbours, friends and family.

And we know this forum's audience is not typical. Most of us cycle, for starters. I suspect more of the country have swallowed the shoot that the newspapers have been shovelling and are viewing 19 July as "Freedom Day" than viewing it as the "Surrender Day" it looks to me.

Why "Surrender Day"? Well, way back last March, Boris invoked full war-on-covid rhetoric with phrases like "in this fight we can be in no doubt that each and every one of us is directly enlisted. Each and every one of us is now obliged to join together to halt the spread of this disease" and "We will beat the coronavirus and we will beat it together." Thank fark he wasn't PM during WW2: he would have negotiated surrender in late 1940 as soon as the Battle of Britain / Air Battle for England was won, bored after just over a year.


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## PK99 (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> If you think about it, how many people on here are suddenly going to throw caution to the wind and 'go mad?
> Not many I would wager, if society is in any way similar then *plenty of people will still be very cautious*.



We used EOTHO several times, and at the various stages have been in numerous pubs and restaurants.

Always choosing quiet pubs at quiet times, ditto restaurants.


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## shep (6 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Why won't you talk about you? Why do you claim plenty of people are going to be cautious, when you yourself "are suddenly going to throw caution to the wind and go mad"? Sorry if you feel I ask you too much, I'm fascinated by your reasoning which seems a mystery to me: you don't seem to be a "scamdemic" proponent, yet you won't voluntarily take simple minor steps to reduce the risk to your neighbours, friends and family.
> 
> And we know this forum's audience is not typical. Most of us cycle, for starters. I suspect more of the country have swallowed the shoot that the newspapers have been shovelling and are viewing 19 July as "Freedom Day" than viewing it as the "Surrender Day" it looks to me.
> 
> Why "Surrender Day"? Well, way back last March, Boris invoked full war-on-covid rhetoric with phrases like "in this fight we can be in no doubt that each and every one of us is directly enlisted. Each and every one of us is now obliged to join together to halt the spread of this disease" and "We will beat the coronavirus and we will beat it together." Thank fark he wasn't PM during WW2: he would have negotiated surrender in late 1940 as soon as the Battle of Britain / Air Battle for England was won, bored after just over a year.


I'll talk about me by all means, I have never once been concerned about catching this virus.

The main posters on this subject seem to range from frightened to death at worst to highly cautious at best, the odd couple seem to be a little more sensible.

I couldn't give a s**t about it and have worked with others throughout, gone out at every opportunity and welcome the lifting of restrictions with open arms.

As for friends and family we're all similar, Lads a Prison officer so worked throughout plus him and his girlfriend both had it already, Daughter works at a school so been mingling freely and missus is ex nurse so has a common sense approach. 

I genuinely think people who have been isolated from others are far more apprehensive than people who have been working, plus what sort of person you are has a big affect in my opinion.


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## lazybloke (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> If you think about it, *how many people on here are suddenly going to throw caution to the wind and 'go mad?*
> Not many I would wager, if society is in any way similar then plenty of people will still be very cautious.


Millions of England fans doing exactly that when watching certain football matches.


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## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> We used EOTHO several times, and at the various stages have been in numerous pubs and restaurants.
> 
> Always choosing quiet pubs at quiet times, ditto restaurants.


Please can you explain how you are choosing quiet pubs and restaurants at quiet times? There seems to be very little information on the usual booking sites, plus then there are all the places without booking services.

Does this mean you are abandoning some meals out when you find the venue is busier than expected/acceptable?

And does it mean you've eaten in some places that are unpopular because they're basically crap?


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## Electric_Andy (6 Jul 2021)

The scenes from Saturdays England game show that we aren't going to stop the spread very easily. The only thing I would say is that in places like supermarkets (where it's not a "choice" to go, but a necessity) masks should still be worn. You can choose not to go to a nightclub or football game, but you can't really choose not to go shopping


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## Edwardoka (6 Jul 2021)

Electric_Andy said:


> The scenes from Saturdays England game show that we aren't going to stop the spread very easily. The only thing I would say is that in places like supermarkets (where it's not a "choice" to go, but a necessity) masks should still be worn. You can choose not to go to a nightclub or football game, but you can't really choose not to go shopping


Snap, I was in the process of replying to this post:



Low Gear Guy said:


> I have often wondered why it is necessary to wear a mask on the train or in the shop but not in a restaurant. It would be inconsistent to require a mask on the train but not in a crowded pub. Maybe the government wants to encourage you to spend lots of money in the pub.


The option to avoid public transport is not available for everyone. Those who are reliant on public transport should be made as safe as possible as they have no alternative.

A trip to a restaurant or the pub is entirely voluntary.


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## shep (6 Jul 2021)

lazybloke said:


> Millions of England fans doing exactly that when watching certain football matches.


Who post on this forum?


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## shep (6 Jul 2021)

Electric_Andy said:


> The scenes from Saturdays England game show that we aren't going to stop the spread very easily. The only thing I would say is that in places like supermarkets (where it's not a "choice" to go, but a necessity) masks should still be worn. You can choose not to go to a nightclub or football game, but you can't really choose not to go shopping


On line shopping?


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> It can be interpreted many ways, such as it points out the massive unknowns about things like long covid and it does not justify removing all restrictions, plus it is pretty quiet about the risks to the unvaccinated and unvaccinatable, and that we still don't have great treatments for people who do get it bad.
> 
> It seems a reasonable summation but I don't think it supports the so-called plan for 19 July.


Colleague of mine (50s) got covid in Jan. She has been off work since. She is still waiting for an appointment in the long covid clinic.

Long covid patients will be the big losers out of this. They will be forgotten.


----------



## shep (6 Jul 2021)

So the big issue really is other people not wearing a mask?

All those worried, when you see a person without a mask do you think they are automatically going to infect you from across the shop or wherever even though you will have your mask on?


----------



## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> On line shopping?


Not available in all places, mostly just the big chains, costs extra one way or another, and is generally too unreliable in my experience.


----------



## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> All those worried, when you see a person without a mask do you think they are automatically going to infect you from across the shop or wherever even though you will have your mask on?


No but it's a usually-unnecessary extra risk exposure. Stop being so black and white about it.


----------



## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> A trip to a restaurant or the pub is entirely voluntary.


So travelling workers should be limited to eating takeaways in parks, change jobs or what?


----------



## Edwardoka (6 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> So travelling workers should be limited to eating takeaways in parks, change jobs or what?


I'm confused by what you mean by travelling workers. Do you mean people who travel on business? Or commuters? Either way, they can take whatever steps they feel necessary, if that means taking packed lunches and/or eating outside, that's entirely up to them.

What the latter group can't necessarily do is remove their reliance on public transport.


----------



## Edwardoka (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> So the big issue really is other people not wearing a mask?
> 
> All those worried, when you see a person without a mask do you think they are automatically going to infect you from across the shop or wherever even though you will have your mask on?


No, the big issue is that by removing all collective mitigation it drastically reduces the steps an individual can take to manage their personal risk.
Wearing a standard cloth mask does little to nothing to stop you from catching it. They stop you from transmitting it.

People who have openly said they don't care about covid and have nothing to worry about are going to behave incautiously, if not deliberately acting in a way that is contrary to any kind of sensible precaution.

The virus doesn't distinguish between cautious folks and those who don't give a toss.
With the removal of all restrictions, the only way the former get a say in the level of risk they are exposed to is self-curtailment, and the latter don't care, as they think they're impervious (right up until they catch it).


----------



## lazybloke (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Who post on this forum?


Oh I'm sorry, I didn't notice you were talking just about forum members.

You know, I'm beginning to suspect the virus can infect _anyone_.


----------



## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> I'm confused by what you mean by travelling workers. Do you mean people who travel on business? Or commuters? Either way, they can take whatever steps they feel necessary, if that means taking packed lunches and/or eating outside, that's entirely up to them.
> 
> What the latter group can't necessarily do is remove their reliance on public transport.


I was thinking of people who work away from home, staying in a hotel for a week or more, doing key work in health or telecommunications. Taking a week of prepack meals is not really a practical option for most, so while strictly speaking restaurant use may be voluntary, it seems rather punishing to deny them the choice in reasonably safety.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> So the big issue really is other people not wearing a mask?
> 
> All those worried, when you see a person without a mask do you think they are automatically going to infect you from across the shop or wherever even though you will have your mask on?



Errrrm - that's how it spreads isn't it ?


----------



## Edwardoka (6 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> I was thinking of people who work away from home, staying in a hotel for a week or more, doing key work in health or telecommunications. Taking a week of prepack meals is not really a practical option for most, so while strictly speaking restaurant use may be voluntary, it seems rather punishing to deny them the choice in reasonably safety.


Oh, I see. I hadn't considered that, but in that case we're on broadly the same page, insofar as removing restrictions indoors is idiotic and unfair on those whose options for alternatives are limited.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

I think sport could get very interesting. With relatively low rates of transmission there have been several outbreaks at Euro 2020.

This is only going to get worse through the winter - I think quite a few games will get postponed due to covid. Not the headlines Boris will want. Esp if some £60-70m superstar goes down with long covid.

Another lockdown isn't off the agenda imo. Even if it's driven by the sheer number of people getting ill.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Another lockdown isn't off the agenda imo. Even if it's driven by the sheer number of people getting ill.



I think the chances of another lockdown are zero, in the UK. 

But I think the chances of disruption due to sheer case numbers is certain. It's already happened in schools, and worse still, cricket!!!

We will see how significant it gets. Prior to first and third lockdown, some schools closed due to caseload rather than diktat.


----------



## shep (6 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> No but it's a usually-unnecessary extra risk exposure. Stop being so black and white about it.


I'll be as Black or White as I like thanks, that approach to life has served me well enough for the last 55 yrs and I appear to have far less reservations about this virus than a lot on here.
Working well for the rest of my views on things too.


----------



## shep (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Errrrm - that's how it spreads isn't it ?


It is if the person has the virus, they then expel it into the air or onto a surface, you then come along and either breathe it in through your own mask or touch that surface then your face, this obviously along with you having both jabs.

I can see why everyone is so scared!


----------



## shep (6 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> Oh, I see. I hadn't considered that, but in that case we're on broadly the same page, insofar as removing restrictions indoors is idiotic and unfair on those whose options for alternatives are limited.


Do you currently need a mask when in a Restaurant?


----------



## Ajax Bay (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> All those worried, when you see a person without a mask do you think they are automatically going to infect you from across the shop or wherever even though you will have your mask on?


@shep Do you think that wearing a mask indoors (eg shop/bar) reduces your (the mask wearer's) chances of catching the lurgy?


----------



## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> @shep Do you think that wearing a mask indoors (eg shop/bar) reduces your (the mask wearer's) chances of catching the lurgy?


Calling it the lurgy? Do you mean to imply that covid is fictitious, do you not know The Goon Show (season 5 episode 7), or something else?


----------



## PK99 (6 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Please can you explain how you are choosing quiet pubs and restaurants at quiet times? There seems to be very little information on the usual booking sites, plus then there are all the places without booking services.
> 
> Does this mean you are abandoning some meals out when you find the venue is busier than expected/acceptable?
> 
> And does it mean you've eaten in some places that are unpopular because they're basically crap?



You asked so:

*Pubs*
Weatherspoons sub £3 a pint = busy = AVOID

Youngs pubs locally £5+ a pint = quiet
Lunchtime = quiet
Walk-in without booking part of current offer. If busy, don't walk in. eg avoid footall times
Well-spaced tables
Outside seating available

*Restaurants
In the past few weeks, locally*
Youngs Gasrtoish pubs locally, Lunchtimes
Patara premium Thai, Wimbledon, 7 pm table - well ventillated, widely spaced tables, no one within 3m
Syrian Kitchen - new opening hot ticket in Carnaby street (going again on Friday 1pm)

Over 6-day stay in Kent last week
Rose Hotel, Deal, up market hotel
Kings Head, Wye, normal pub in quiet village, early evening
Wife of Bath, Wye, up market hotel
Sportsman, Seaslater, Michelin * Gastro Pub

All upmarket with widely spaced tables even n the Before Times, now with rigorous covid regimes


----------



## Edwardoka (6 Jul 2021)

I demand to be free to swing a baseball bat at head height, even in crowded areas. I don't see why other people are avoiding us just because of this, _I _haven't been hit by a baseball bat, those 140,000 people who have been hit and killed must have had pre-existing conditions. And now that almost 50% of people have two baseball-bat-resistant hats on it's even less of an issue, despite the rate of baseball-bat/head collisions accelerating rapidly.

We simply have to learn to live with baseball bats being swung at heads, including those who have no option but to enter areas full of people swinging baseball bats. You can't live in fear of being hit by a baseball bat, what kind of life is that at a*SMASH*

Is my analogy a bit heavy-handed? Good.


----------



## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> You asked so:


Yeah, but I asked how you're picking them, rather than for a list of places far from me, plus if you had abandoned any due to how busy they are.

It seems like you're basically picking places with expensive beer, or see themselves as upmarket or premium and guessing at busy times, or places you knew from pre-covid. That's fine, but it's similar to what I've been doing, with less success than you.

Unless anyone knows a better tactic, I'm probably going to stick to places with outdoor seating after the 19th while case numbers are high, and I blame bad government entirely for that reduced choice and the resulting harm I think will hit restaurants and pubs.


----------



## shep (6 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> @shep Do you think that wearing a mask indoors (eg shop/bar) reduces your (the mask wearer's) chances of catching the lurgy?


According to form no, but the main thing I can see people worrying about is no mask wearing by others?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> Is my analogy a bit heavy-handed?



I predict it will just be batted away


----------



## shep (6 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> I demand to be free to swing a baseball bat at head height, even in crowded areas. I don't see why other people are avoiding us just because of this, _I _haven't been hit by a baseball bat, those 140,000 people who have been hit and killed must have had pre-existing conditions. And now that almost 50% of people have two baseball-bat-resistant hats on it's even less of an issue, despite the rate of baseball-bat/head collisions accelerating rapidly.
> 
> We simply have to learn to live with baseball bats being swung at heads, including those who have no option but to enter areas full of people swinging baseball bats. You can't live in fear of being hit by a baseball bat, what kind of life is that at a*SMASH*
> 
> Is my analogy a bit heavy-handed? Good.


You don't go out and work from home, what you worrying about?


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> It is if the person has the virus, they then expel it into the air or onto a surface, you then come along and either breathe it in through your own mask or touch that surface then your face, this obviously along with you having both jabs.
> 
> I can see why everyone is so scared!



Not sure if serious ?

The effectiveness of 2 jabs is down to 64% in Israel and is likely to drop further.

You do realise the virus can easily penetrate a mask ? 
The mask REDUCES the amount of virus that the wearer expels into the air.


----------



## shep (6 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> I demand to be free to swing a baseball bat at head height, even in crowded areas. I don't see why other people are avoiding us just because of this, _I _haven't been hit by a baseball bat, those 140,000 people who have been hit and killed must have had pre-existing conditions. And now that almost 50% of people have two baseball-bat-resistant hats on it's even less of an issue, despite the rate of baseball-bat/head collisions accelerating rapidly.
> 
> We simply have to learn to live with baseball bats being swung at heads, including those who have no option but to enter areas full of people swinging baseball bats. You can't live in fear of being hit by a baseball bat, what kind of life is that at a*SMASH*
> 
> Is my analogy a bit heavy-handed? Good.


You could swing your bat around in pubs for a while just not when you go for a pee.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> On line shopping?



Min spend. Delivered in about 10 days time. Not much good if you're out of loo roll !!!


----------



## shep (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Not sure if serious ?
> 
> The effectiveness of 2 jabs is down to 64% in Israel and is likely to drop further.
> 
> ...


Good job we're not in Israel then!

I understand the mask thing but surely with what we know about hygiene and most having 2 jabs it's possible to go around without being frightened of every non mask wearing person you come across?

You do what you like for me , I'm happy with the lifting of restrictions.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Good job we're not in Israel then!
> 
> I understand the mask thing but surely with what we know about hygiene and most having 2 jabs it's possible to go around without being frightened of every non mask wearing person you come across?
> 
> You do what you like for me , I'm happy with the lifting of restrictions.



The man who to fell to earth !


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> most having 2 jabs


----------



## SpokeyDokey (6 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> View attachment 597683



64.3% to 5 July:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Edit: some quick and dirty maths indicates that this is rising by around 2% per week so by 19 July we should be at c68% as the UK total. 

I wonder at what percentage we will top out?


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> 64.3% to 5 July:
> 
> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



Isn't that % of the adult population ???? 

The delta variant is that it circulates in the younger population .


----------



## lane (6 Jul 2021)

I went to pub the other day on a bike ride, the cafe we planned to visit was closed. We were met at a desk outside and allocated some outside seating, served at the table by someone wearing a mask and were seated far away from the few others there. As soon as we looked at the menu it was taken away for sanitizing. I said to my friend seems fairly safe here - he said it's all or nothing in terms of thousands in the football grounds.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> 64.3% to 5 July:



That's adults. 

The entire population is capable of transmission. 






SpokeyDokey said:


> I wonder at what percentage we will top out?



Not high enough, as there seems to be no plan to vaccinate u18s, unlike almost every other developed country.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Isn't that % of the adult population ????
> 
> The delta variant is that it circulates in the younger population .



I think that you are right. 

The point is that the greater percentage of the adult population are as fully protected as they can be with the current vaccines that we have.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> The point is that the greater percentage of the adult population are as fully protected as they can be with the current vaccines that we have.



I _think_ the point was how protected people are from the unvaccinated spreading it around. The answer to which is "not so much as most people think" as only half the population is fully vaccinated. 

But it's quite likely I misinterpreted.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (6 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> That's adults.
> 
> The entire population is capable of transmission.
> 
> ...



Agreed re adults. 

Does it matter if the whole population can transmit the virus - that's a given surely. 

What matters is protection levels and how many succumb which is currently very low despite increased number of cases.


----------



## shep (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> The man who to fell to earth !


The Man who'll be going to the Pub without a Mask on and to Watch a football game!


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think that you are right.
> 
> The point is that the greater percentage of the adult population are as fully protected as they can be with the current vaccines that we have.



Agreed.

But if the virus is freely transmitted by under 18s then it isn't going to go away. And will erode into the double jabbed.

Like I mentioned a few posts back Israel is reimposing restrictions despite an extensive vaccine program. I think to a greater or lesser extent we will end up doing the same.


----------



## shep (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Agreed.
> 
> But if the virus is freely transmitted by under 18s then it isn't going to go away. And will erode into the double jabbed.
> 
> Like I mentioned a few posts back Israel is reimposing restrictions despite an extensive vaccine program. I think to a greater or lesser extent we will end up doing the same.


I think to a greater or lesser extent you might be right, we'll have to wait and see.


----------



## Ajax Bay (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> The effectiveness of 2 jabs is down to 64% in Israel and is likely to drop further.


That's Pfizer for you, administered only 3 weeks apart, I guess, not jolly reliable Oxford stuff, or doses sensibly split by 8-12 weeks to give better, longer lasting protection (source not available). All vaccines' protectiveness percentage will wane "likely to drop" over time, so thanks for sharing that insight. The key additional info (please share) is at what rate is the effectiveness estimated to drop.
Btw, please share the 'in Israel down to 64% and waning' link.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> The Man who'll be going to the Pub without a Mask on and to Watch a football game!



Nowt wrong with that. There's a risk and you're prepared to take it.

Unfortunately a lot of people are going to fall into ill health early in their life - I wonder how many Johnson can tolerate before being forced to act


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Agreed re adults.
> 
> Does it matter if the whole population can transmit the virus - that's a given surely.
> 
> What matters is protection levels and how many succumb which is currently very low despite increased number of cases.



I thought the post was the degree of risk an individual took in a crowd or similar. It was argued that was low because most people were double vaxxed. That's not the case. But like I said, perhaps I've misinterpreted.

Not sure what constitutes "succumbing" or "very low", but "currently" isn't the issue, it's the trajectory.

I would certainly agree that vaccination is a damn good thing and the current wave would be far, far worse without it.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I think to a greater or lesser extent we will end up doing the same.



I don't. We'll just let people suffer and tell them they're living with the virus.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Btw, please share the 'in Israel down to 64% and waning' link.



https://www.timesofisrael.com/israe...ective-against-delta-variant-eyes-third-dose/

Not sure if the actual data is anywhere.

Personally I'm sceptical of such a large drop and wonder what the confidence interval is, or the skew on population.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I don't. We'll just let people suffer and tell them they're living with the virus.


 Yes I know Boris will try that one. But I really think he has miscalculated here.


----------



## shep (6 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I don't. We'll just let people suffer and tell them they're living with the virus.


I was being sarcastic to be fair, everyone can predict something might happen to a greater or lesser extent as its so vague. 

I doubt there will be any restrictions unless the death toll ramps up considerably and I'm guessing the vaccine has kept that under control. 

New cases makes no odds to me as long as you're not too ill or hospitalised.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I was being sarcastic to be fair, everyone can predict something might happen to a greater or lesser extent as its so vague.
> 
> I doubt there will be any restrictions unless the death toll ramps up considerably and I'm guessing the vaccine has kept that under control.
> 
> New cases makes no odds to me as long as you're not too ill or hospitalised.



But that's thing. Long covid does make you seriously ill.


----------



## Ajax Bay (6 Jul 2021)

As at 5 Jul, 34M vaccinated with both doses. Another 11M have had one dose. 14 days to 19 Jul (so those 45M together have some protection: different percentages).
Another 8M adults (O/18) are unvaccinated (some through choice). Of those about (maybe) 2M have previously been infected (including asymptomatic) so have anty bodies.
14M under 18s, of whom maybe 3M have previously been infected (including asymptomatic) so have antibodies.
Leaves 17M still 'unprotected' on 19 Jul (almost exactly 25%).
In progress to herd immunity terms (infection, not severe/hospitalisation), that's about 36M equivalents (so 54% equivalent of UK population). The increased infectiousness of the delta variant means its 'R' number is high and therefore the percentage needed to get to herd immunity is higher than for the Alpha variant. We can only estimate that number but maybe 75%. If the vaccine programme continues at pace (hopefully faster than at present) AND JCVI decide that there is merit in vaccinating the youth, we might make this by September. From this PoV only, natural acquisition of antibodies will help.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Yes I know Boris will try that one. But I really think he has miscalculated here.



I don't think so.

He got away with the highest death toll in the world first wave. He got away with the literally lethal fiasco when he imposed a lockdown the day after schools went back after Christmas.

You could say he's got away with murder.

Nothing now could be close to as bad. Seriously.


----------



## lane (6 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> As at 5 Jul, 34M vaccinated with both doses. Another 11M have had one dose. 14 days to 19 Jul (so those 45M together have some protection: different percentages).
> Another 8M adults (O/18) are unvaccinated (some through choice). Of those about (maybe) 2M have previously been infected (including asymptomatic) so have anty bodies.
> 14M under 18s, of whom maybe 3M have previously been infected (including asymptomatic) so have antibodies.
> Leaves 17M still 'unprotected' on 19 Jul (almost exactly 25%).
> In progress to herd immunity terms (infection, not severe/hospitalisation), that's about 36M equivalents (so 54% equivalent of UK population). The increased infectiousness of the delta variant means its 'R' number is high and therefore the percentage needed to get to herd immunity is higher than for the Alpha variant. We can only estimate that number but maybe 75%. If the vaccine programme continues at pace (hopefully faster than at present) AND JCVI decide that there is merit in vaccinating the youth, we might make this by September. From this PoV only, natural acquisition of antibodies will help.


 From all I have seen and I have no specific sources to quote 75% is a very optimistic estimate.


----------



## lane (6 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I don't think so.
> 
> He got away with the highest death toll in the world first wave. He got away with the literally lethal fiasco when he imposed a lockdown the day after schools went back after Christmas.
> 
> ...



Lets hope not


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I don't think so.
> 
> He got away with the highest death toll in the world first wave. He got away with the literally lethal fiasco when he imposed a lockdown the day after schools went back after Christmas.
> 
> ...



Dunno - most people didn't get covid last year. Now we seem to be accepting that 100k people a day will get covid.
The implications of that ie mutations, long covid, organ damage will imo rack up. 

I don't believe the UK can sustain 100k infections per day for any length of time.

I also wonder if there would be public led lockdown. Will people stop eating out, stop doing high risk jobs , .


----------



## lane (6 Jul 2021)

The question is will it top out at 100k infections a day? If it's doubling every few days.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> The question is will it top out at 100k infections a day? If it's doubling every few days.


 
Why should it ? 

I suppose there will be peak covid - where the disease makes so many people I'll that they don't go out thus the virus can not sustain that number of infections. That might be higher than 100k though ...I also think Boris would be forced to act before that happened.


----------



## lane (6 Jul 2021)

I would recommend that people watch this video by Dr John Campbell. He quotes Professor Neil Ferguson says cases could go to 150,000 per day or even 200,000. The Prof also says pressure on health care system, slight gamble, reasonably optimistic. Worse case may need to be a course correction later.

Dr John Campbell calculates that hospitalisations 1.7% to 1.96% currently. In January hospitalisations were 6.4% 


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLwn3CML0DQ


----------



## Mo1959 (6 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> I would recommend that people watch this video by Dr John Campbell. He quotes Professor Neil Ferguson says cases could go to 150,000 per day or even 200,000. The Prof also says pressure on health care system, slight gamble, reasonably optimistic. Worse case may need to be a course correction later.
> 
> Dr John Campbell calculates that hospitalisations 1.7% to 1.96% currently. In January hospitalisations were 6.4%
> 
> ...



One of the Scottish hospitals already struggling!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-57735232


----------



## lane (6 Jul 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> One of the Scottish hospitals already struggling!
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-57735232



Realistically we must be looking at hospitalisations of 1,000 a day if not more. How long can that go on without the NHS being under too much pressure to cope?


----------



## lane (6 Jul 2021)

Although the end of self isolation for those double vaccinated will ease pressure on staffing.


----------



## cambsno (6 Jul 2021)

McWobble said:


> That we're now seeing talk of mask wearing being a matter of "personal conscience" after the 19th July - this is extraordinarily unwise. Removing restrictions is likely to worsen the situation. It might be a good idea to avoid crowds and crowded areas (especially indoors) for at least couple of months. Especially if you're in a vulnerable category, or haven't yet been fully vaccinated.



As Chris Whitty said, if we dont relax now, when can we?

Schools are off for 6 weeks which is a plus. So too (hopefully) the nice weather.

If we dont relax now then we do this when kids go back, it gets colder, which is the start of virus season.


----------



## cambsno (6 Jul 2021)

DCLane said:


> @McWobble I agree with you.
> 
> It seems that we've suddenly moved to a fully open society, leaving everyone to survive how they can. *An 'if you're not vaccinated then that's your problem' approach.*
> 
> ...



With a few exceptions, if you are not vaccinated then tough, thats your choice! As things stand, anyone over 40 who wants it will be double jabbed in the next week or so. Those under 40 are very low risk, marginal and they will have had at least one jab.

For many people, financial impact is the same as health impact. I know many whose health (physical and mental) has suffered doe to financial impact, I knew someone who took their own life over financial impacts so the two are linked.


----------



## cambsno (6 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Now, let's say this really is about personal responsibility and choices. Unless it is moved to telephone again, I will be going to hospital in Cambridge next month. I expect I will need to either ride it all or park and pedal because the gov-controlled trains will no longer be requiring masks, so I will need to eat before coming back. What cafes/restaurants will still be taking reasonable covid precautions? Will I bE effectively forced to choose between high-covid-risk and low-comfort options like eating takeaway outdoors possibly under an umbrella like during lockdown?



You could always wear a proper mask - I mean, the ones in hospitals which are 100% effective v Covid. Then it doesn't matter if others are not.


----------



## cambsno (6 Jul 2021)

Low Gear Guy said:


> I have often wondered why it is necessary to wear a mask on the train or in the shop but not in a restaurant. It would be inconsistent to require a mask on the train but not in a crowded pub. Maybe the government wants to encourage you to spend lots of money in the pub.



Have you tried eating and drinking with a mask?


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> With a few exceptions, if you are not vaccinated then tough, thats your choice! As things stand, anyone over 40 who wants it will be double jabbed in the next week or so. Those under 40 are very low risk, marginal and they will have had at least one jab.
> 
> For many people, financial impact is the same as health impact. I know many whose health (physical and mental) has suffered doe to financial impact, I knew someone who took their own life over financial impacts so the two are linked.



Lower risk of dying yes. Lower risk of long covid. No.
My son's GF is 22 - her sense of smell hasnt returned in 10 months - she is physically sick at the smell of chicken. Even if someone had eaten chicken hours ago.

Work colleague 50 - ill with covid for 7 months. Still to breathless to leave the house.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> You could always wear a proper mask - I mean, the ones in hospitals which are 100% effective v Covid. Then it doesn't matter if others are not.



Only if they are fitted 100% correctly. You can't just whack one on. If you do the protection is no better than a cloth mask.


----------



## lane (6 Jul 2021)

Data predicts 2m UK summer Covid cases with 10m isolating according to the Gurdian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...2m-uk-summer-covid-cases-prompts-health-fears

It's going to be an interesting summer


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> As Chris Whitty said, if we dont relax now, when can we?
> 
> Schools are off for 6 weeks which is a plus. So too (hopefully) the nice weather.
> 
> If we dont relax now then we do this when kids go back, it gets colder, which is the start of virus season.



I really had hoped for better than " if not now when ?"

What about when our infection rate isn't the worst in Europe ?


----------



## lane (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Only if they are fitted 100% correctly. You can't just whack one on. If you do the protection is no better than a cloth mask.



That's the second such post by you in the past couple of days. Do you have a link from an authoritative source confirming that please?


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Data predicts 2m UK summer Covid cases with 10m isolating according to the Gurdian
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...2m-uk-summer-covid-cases-prompts-health-fears
> 
> It's going to be an interesting summer



I really think this lockdown easing will end badly - and will pretty swiftly require a re think.

Apart from " if not now when" there seems nothing but blind faith and denial.


----------



## kingrollo (6 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> That's the second such post by you in the past couple of days. Do you have a link from an authoritative source confirming that please?


It wasn't I the first time ! 
No I don't - happy to withdraw the statement if correct.


----------



## winjim (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Lower risk of dying yes. Lower risk of long covid. No.
> My son's GF is 22 - her sense of smell hasnt returned in 10 months - she is physically sick at the smell of chicken. Even if someone had eaten chicken hours ago.
> 
> Work colleague 50 - ill with covid for 7 months. Still to breathless to leave the house.


Friend of ours, mid to late 40s. Caught Covid last summer. Still too ill to even play with his kids. Can't go to work. Effectively incapacitated.


----------



## lane (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> It wasn't I the first time !
> No I don't - happy to withdraw the statement if correct.



Sorry someone else posted the same as you then. I am not saying it is incorrect I would just like to know if it is something I should rely on. I can see a lot on the web about the fit test etc. being important to get best protection but I am just unsure if it is then only as good as a cloth mask if not fitted 100% as I can't find anything to back that up - although I am not saying it's wrong I would have been interested in some research link to back it up is all.


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## DCLane (6 Jul 2021)

@winjim & @kingrollo - with hospital admissions still low SWMBO's back on her rehab wards which have Covid recovery patients.

They're full, with a waiting list. She's some patients in there who are 18-30 who've had strokes, have neurology problems, can't speak/swallow/walk/etc. as a result of Covid and will be there for some time as the staff try and help them recover.


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## midlife (6 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Sorry someone else posted the same as you then. I am not saying it is incorrect I would just like to know if it is something I should rely on. I can see a lot on the web about the fit test etc. being important to get best protection but I am just unsure if it is then only as good as a cloth mask if not fitted 100% as I can't find anything to back that up - although I am not saying it's wrong I would have been interested in some research link to back it up is all.



There was a lot of work done on fit testing versus fit checking using bitter / sweet and Portacount. 

About 20% of FFP3 masks leaked unless properly selected and fit tested for an individual. Tricky to carry out trials as a bit unethical to stick someone on a covid ward with an ill fitting mask. Anecdotally covid ward staff that were not fit tested had the same covid antibody rate as others but why take the risk when fit checking is straightforward. Upshot is that if you fit check for an FFP3 it's better than a surgical mask most likely


----------



## mjr (6 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> You could always wear a proper mask - I mean, the ones in hospitals which are 100% effective v Covid. Then it doesn't matter if others are not.


Great except for just two problems: can't eat with a mask on; and it's about more than masks, such as space and ventilation.


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## classic33 (6 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> On line shopping?


I've two items on repeat prescription that can't be collected by anyone else, nor can they be delivered.


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## Ajax Bay (6 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Dr John Campbell calculates that hospitalisations 1.7% to 1.96% currently. In January hospitalisations were 6.4%


Just to be clear 'hospitalisations' = daily hospital admissions (after the chit-chat upthread) and those figures (in quote) are the percentage hospital admissions daily versus daily cases by reported date 10 days earlier.
I offer slightly 'better' figures by using 7-day averages (to avoid weekend effects that JC's figures generate) as 2.7% (as at 18 Jun (cases) and 27 Jun(admissions)).
So 100,000 cases (if we ever see that) might be expected to result, 9 days later, in ~2700 hospital admissions.


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## classic33 (6 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> You could always wear a proper mask - I mean, the ones in hospitals which are 100% effective v Covid. Then it doesn't matter if others are not.


You mean something like a positive pressure mask with battery powered, filtered air supply?
Eight hour battery life, replaceable filters.

I did get some odd looks last year, not so many this year.

Edited to add,
I also seemed to have people giving me more room last year, whilst wearing it. Not so much this year.


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## Ajax Bay (6 Jul 2021)

Imperial modelling
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993427/S1289_Imperial_Roadmap_Step_4.pdf 1
Waiting for more from SPI-M next week but 3 weeks ago:
”…delaying step 4 until [19] July is predicted to delay and substantially reduce the magnitude of the third wave. Delaying step 4 until all adults have received two vaccine doses is projected to delay the third wave. In some of our modelled scenarios, this long delay paradoxically leads to more total deaths since the third wave would be pushed into the winter, when transmission may be higher because of seasonality and increased indoors interactions, and when an increased proportion of individuals may have lost protection from prior infection.“


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## cambsno (6 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I really think this lockdown easing will end badly - and will pretty swiftly require a re think.
> 
> Apart from " if not now when" there seems nothing but blind faith and denial.



So basically the answer is to stay in lockdown till.... 2024?

Regardless of that, many people I know ignored lockdown rules towards the end... people have just had enough. Even Whitty has mentioned lockdown fatigue before.


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## shep (7 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Great except for just two problems: can't eat with a mask on; and it's about more than masks, such as space and ventilation.


Nobody eats with a mask on!


----------



## shep (7 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> I've two items on repeat prescription that can't be collected by anyone else, nor can they be delivered.


I'm sure the chances of catching Covid from a non mask wearer whilst picking up a prescription from the chemist is pretty low surely?


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## classic33 (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I'm sure the chances of catching Covid from a non mask wearer whilst picking up a prescription from the chemist is pretty low surely?


I'd to nominate a chemists a few years ago, for the prescriptions to be sent to. My nominated chemist just happens to be Lloyd's, in Sainsbury's. Ideal chance to combine two needs into one trip.

I'm not able to give a figure for the chance of picking something up from someone not wearing a mask. Especially as I use a full face, closed system mask.


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## icowden (7 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> You could always wear a proper mask - I mean, the ones in hospitals which are 100% effective v Covid. Then it doesn't matter if others are not.



No mask is 100% effective against Covid. Hospitals use N95 respirator masks which are 95% effective (as the name suggests). To get close to 100% you would need something like a hazmat suit and your own air supply.

The principle of mask wearing is to protect *other people* rather than protecting yourself. A simple analogy is this:-

_Imagine you are naked. You meet another man who is naked. You are standing less than 2m apart. He is weeing at high pressure. You are getting covered in his wee. Yuck.

Now repeat the scenario, but you are wearing trousers. Your legs are no longer getting covered by wee as much, but your trousers are getting wet and some of it is soaking through to your legs. Still yuck.

Now repeat the scenario, but the other guy is wearing trousers. He's just a guy with wet trousers and you don't care because your trousers and legs are no longer affected by his incontinence. It's more important that he wears trousers than you. Unless you are also weeing._

Same applies to masks.

CNN understand where Boris is at:


View: https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1412317095719837698?s=20


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## shep (7 Jul 2021)

Good analogy, presuming everyone walking around Sainsburys is pi****g everywhere!


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## shep (7 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> I'd to nominate a chemists a few years ago, for the prescriptions to be sent to. My nominated chemist just happens to be Lloyd's, in Sainsbury's. Ideal chance to combine two needs into one trip.
> 
> I'm not able to give a figure for the chance of picking something up from someone not wearing a mask. Especially as I use a full face, closed system mask.


Maybe time to change to quieter chemist then?

What would happen if you were somehow housebound for a while who would get your drugs?


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## shep (7 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> My son's GF is 22 - her sense of smell hasnt returned in 10 months - she is physically sick at the smell of chicken.


????


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## winjim (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> ????


People boring on about how Covid doesn't affect young people. It does.


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## shep (7 Jul 2021)

winjim said:


> People boring on about how Covid doesn't affect young people. It does.


You really do read things completely differently to me, the fella states someone has no sense of smell but in the same sentence says the smell of Chicken makes her sick?


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## winjim (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> You really do read things completely differently to me, the fella states someone has no sense of smell but in the same sentence says the smell of Chicken makes her sick?


Fair enough, I guess her sense of smell and reaction to it is altered rather than absent then.

Anyway, the point stands, young people are affected by Covid.


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## PK99 (7 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> So basically the answer is to stay in lockdown till.... 2024?
> 
> Regardless of that, many people I know ignored lockdown rules towards the end... people have just had enough. Even Whitty has mentioned lockdown fatigue before.



Lockdown fatigue is an interesting one. 

According to reports, Sage advice way back was to not lock down early as psychologists advice was that in UK people would not tolerate lockdown for long.

Some press reports have claimed that subsequent adherence to Lockdown showed that this advice had been wrong.

I would posit a different analysis.

UK folks obeyed the rules because the effects of the pandemic were palpably real. People were dying and early doors the age and health profiles of the most susceptible were not clear. People were scared and obeyed the rules.

Far East societies were more compliant - for two broad reasons, societal structures plus, more importantly, they had direct personal experience is SARS. People were scared and obeyed the rules.

Roll on to now.

It is less a case of lockdown fatigue than it is that many are making a rational decision that they are not in the age/health profiles at risk and/or are vaccinated. Many are no longer scared and are less inclined to follow the rules of lockdown.


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## winjim (7 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> Lockdown fatigue is an interesting one.
> 
> According to reports, Sage advice way back was to not lock down early as psychologists advice was that in UK people would not tolerate lockdown for long.
> 
> ...


Even if true, it's an argument for locking down sooner, and harder. Instead we've had these protracted wishy-washy sort of not lockdowns with huge amounts of mixed messaging so it's no wonder people are getting fatigued.


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## shep (7 Jul 2021)

winjim said:


> Fair enough, I guess her sense of smell and reaction to it is altered rather than absent then.
> 
> Anyway, the point stands, young people are affected by Covid.


Have you no humour in you or just deadly serious 100% of the time?

Yes, young people are affected.


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## shep (7 Jul 2021)

winjim said:


> Even if true, it's an argument for locking down sooner, and harder. Instead we've had these protracted wishy-washy sort of not lockdowns with huge amounts of mixed messaging so it's no wonder people are getting fatigued.


That ship has sailed long ago so pointless even mentioning it, most people I know go about daily life as if there's no Virus at all. 

Work, Pubs, visiting people, the lot.


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## winjim (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Have you no humour in you or just deadly serious 100% of the time?
> 
> Yes, young people are affected.


I apologise for not being able to properly interpret your string of question marks.


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## shep (7 Jul 2021)

winjim said:


> I apologise for not being able to properly interpret your string of question marks.


No worries, it just made me smile that's all and didn't make sense. 

People read things differently obviously. 👍


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## Johnno260 (7 Jul 2021)

Going forward it will be about managing risk, to me that is.

We shall continue to get home delivery for food, etc but I have found that on the occasion I need to go to the supermarket early is best.

Masks aren’t mandatory but if you feel the need to wear one then do, it’s a free country so don’t allow anyone to sway your choice.

Also if you have access to one, and want to use an N95.

Personally I won’t be going to a stadium or packed indoor event for a while I think it’s pointless and a needless risk, we support local businesses as much as possible and use small bakeries and uses pubs and restaurants with a takeaway service, we had a really nice takeaway roast the other week delivered by a local pub.

We all view risk differently having a degree of tolerance will be needed, but be prepared for the occasional douche bag.


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## mjr (7 Jul 2021)

winjim said:


> Even if true, it's an argument for locking down sooner, and harder. Instead we've had these protracted wishy-washy sort of not lockdowns with huge amounts of mixed messaging so it's no wonder people are getting fatigued.


And locking down sooner and harder would mean fewer deaths and less time in lockdown. It is criminal the gov ignored clear advice from WHO on this, especially for lockdowns 2 and 3.


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## mjr (7 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I also wonder if there would be public led lockdown. Will people stop eating out, stop doing high risk jobs , .


If they do, we'll be back to 16-23 March 2020 situation with uncertainty nuking businesses. Restrictions may be bad for business, but uncertainty is worse and needless deaths are fatal.


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## classic33 (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Maybe time to change to quieter chemist then?
> 
> What would happen if you were somehow housebound for a while who would get your drugs?


I nominated a chemist that could get what was required at the time. The one adjoining the doctors surgery couldn't.

Chances are I'd end up in hospital. So far it hasn't happened.


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## SpokeyDokey (7 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> It is less a case of lockdown fatigue than it is that many are making a rational decision that they are not in the age/health profiles at risk and/or are vaccinated. Many are no longer scared and are less inclined to follow the rules of lockdown.



That would be the interpretation in our household.

Whilst this is anecdotal (and hence ignorable I guess) of the dozen or so people I have spoken to since Monday and the 6 work colleagues of my wife that she has spoken to, all are in the same camp as described above and are broadly supportive of the full easement of the restrictive measures currently in place subject to the 4 tests being met.

CC is not a typical cross section of the greater community (and nor are my dozen or so friends I have spoken to to be fair) and I wonder if there is any data available re current perceptions of the proposed easement of restictions?


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## mjr (7 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I wonder if there is any data available re current perceptions of the proposed easement of restictions?


The latest I've seen is that a slim majority think it won't happen on the 19th:





from https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en...19th-july-planned-confidence-nhs-remains-high which also says 77% are currently worried about the risk to others.


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## johnblack (7 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> CC is not a typical cross section of the greater community (and nor are my dozen or so friends I have spoken to to be fair) and I wonder if there is any data available re current perceptions of the proposed easement of restictions?


So much this. 
Obviously only my experience, but I'm lucky enough to be out and about and see a fair few people of all ages, I can't remember one who has recently said anything other than they've had enough and want an end to the restrictions.


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## mjr (7 Jul 2021)

johnblack said:


> So much this.
> Obviously only my experience, but I'm lucky enough to be out and about and see a fair few people of all ages, I can't remember one who has recently said anything other than they've had enough and want an end to the restrictions.


1. That is not the same as saying that they think all restrictions should end now or on the 19th. I want them to end too, but when it is reasonably safe.

2. That must have made conversations very dull


----------



## Edwardoka (7 Jul 2021)

I think the reason why CycleChat's stance is not terribly representative of the man on the Clapham Omnibus is: as vulnerable road users, cyclists are acutely aware of the difference between "risk I am willing to accept for myself" and "risk I am willing to inflict on others".


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## roubaixtuesday (7 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> I think the reason why CycleChat's stance is not terribly representative of the man on the Clapham Omnibus is: as vulnerable road users, cyclists are acutely aware of the difference between "risk I am willing to accept for myself" and "risk I am willing to inflict on others".



Polling consistently shows the public are more in favour of restrictions than the govt.

So perhaps it's just that those who want *fReeDOm dAy NoW!* are loundmouths and get more attention.


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## mjr (7 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Polling consistently shows the public are more in favour of restrictions than the govt.


What have you seen recently?



> So perhaps it's just that those who want *fReeDOm dAy NoW!* are loundmouths and get more attention.


Cheese-seating covid-surrender monkeys, the lot of them!


----------



## Wobblers (7 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> As Chris Whitty said, if we dont relax now, when can we?
> 
> Schools are off for 6 weeks which is a plus. So too (hopefully) the nice weather.
> 
> If we dont relax now then we do this when kids go back, it gets colder, which is the start of virus season.



"If we don't relax now, when can we" is not a reason. There's no reasoning involved for starters. It is a justification. 

There are no shortage of reasons why removing all restrictions is a high risk course. Delta is considerably more transmittable than any other widespread variant - and is _already_ spreading exponentially. This risks the NHS being overrun with Covid cases.

Furthermore, Covid does not just cause death. About 10% of those who contract it end up with long Covid - months of in some cases debilitating symptoms most notably persistent fatigue. A significant fraction - perhaps as high as 1% - will be unlucky enough to come out with more serious issues: many of which are likely to be permanently debilitating: strokes, heart damage, lung scarring, kidney damage. Treating and supporting these unfortunate people is an expense that will last years or decades. understand that the negative economic consequences of removing restrictions will be greater long term than the short term hit of not doing so. It is difficult to argue that removing restrictions makes economic sense.


----------



## Wobblers (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> You really do read things completely differently to me, the fella states someone has no sense of smell but in the same sentence says the smell of Chicken makes her sick?



Reduction and alteration of the sense of smell is a very well documented long term consequence of Covid infection. This in fact is a fairly typical presentation.

@kingrollo, there's recent MedCram youtube video which looks at the issue of smell loss here. It goes into some detail (and looks at studies published in the medical literature) how therapy using essential oils can aid. Worth thinking about?


----------



## shep (7 Jul 2021)

McWobble said:


> Reduction and alteration of the sense of smell is a very well documented long term consequence of Covid infection. This in fact is a fairly typical presentation.
> 
> @kingrollo, there's recent MedCram youtube video which looks at the issue of smell loss here. It goes into some detail (and looks at studies published in the medical literature) how therapy using essential oils can aid. Worth thinking about?


Does nobody see what I read?

"She can't smell, the smell of Chicken makes her ill."

How the f**k can she smell it if she can't smell!!


----------



## shep (7 Jul 2021)

johnblack said:


> So much this.
> Obviously only my experience, but I'm lucky enough to be out and about and see a fair few people of all ages, I can't remember one who has recently said anything other than they've had enough and want an end to the restrictions.


That's the difference, 'out and about' seems most of the posters on the subject are either retired, working from home or just plain frit.

Not one person I speak to, and I must see 20-30 people every week think we should extend restrictions but they are all either working, in the pub or friends which is the big difference in my opinion.


----------



## shep (7 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> 2. That must have made conversations very dull


It usually goes "Thank god this mask wearing bo**?x will be over on the 19th "

"Too right " 

Then talk about something important. 

Do you actually discuss it in real life with people face to face then like you do on here, I would be very surprised unless you are all in agreement and can therefore analyse the next strategy and process for a safe return to normality.


----------



## mjr (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> That's the difference, 'out and about' seems most of the posters on the subject are either retired, working from home or just plain frit.


That is another post where "seems" is doing a lot of heavy lifting. I humbly suggest that your views are colouring your perception of other posters. I was on tour for most of the last two weeks, which I suspect is more "out and about" than you or the previous poster who seem to see the same group of surrender supporters every week.



> Not one person I speak to, and I must see 20-30 people every week think we should extend restrictions but they are all either working, in the pub or friends which is the big difference in my opinion.


Who here is arguing for extending restrictions? I'm arguing for keeping some of them, such as covering faces in enclosed spaces, while relaxing others, as the data suggests.


----------



## shep (7 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> That is another post where "seems" is doing a lot of heavy lifting. I humbly suggest that your views are colouring your perception of other posters. I was on tour for most of the last two weeks, which I suspect is more "out and about" than you or the previous poster who seem to see the same group of surrender supporters every week.
> 
> 
> Who here is arguing for extending restrictions? I'm arguing for keeping some of them, such as covering faces in enclosed spaces, while relaxing others, as the data suggests.


They're being extended past the 19th then?

On tour where, you in the Army?

I'm a rigger and work all over the Country thanks.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (7 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> What have you seen recently?



Nowt, just what I recall through the pandemic.


----------



## mjr (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> It usually goes "Thank god this mask wearing bo**?x will be over on the 19th "
> 
> "Too right "
> 
> Then talk about something important.


So don't you think 130-150 thousand deaths and millions long-term ill is important?



> Do you actually discuss it in real life with people face to face then like you do on here, I would be very surprised unless you are all in agreement and can therefore analyse the next strategy and process for a safe return to normality.


Yes, I discuss it in real life with people face to face, in the open air, often on bike rides or over drinks. We're not all in agreement, of course, but I think most would agree that there will be no "return" to the previous normality any time soon and that attempting to do so will kill loads more people unnecessarily.

When engaged in a "fight where we can be in no doubt that each and every one of us is directly enlisted" there is only one way where we get to choose a date and say that's when the fight ends: surrender. I don't want to surrender to covid. Do you?

And anyway, isn't it government policy to "build back better" instead of trying to return to the same normal shoot?


----------



## mjr (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> They're being extended past the 19th then?


Are they? Any link to a news report on that?



> On tour where, you in the Army?


On a cycling tour (part of the time... otherwise by other land transport). Maybe it's escaped your notice, but this is a cycling forum.


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## shep (7 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Are they? Any link to a news report on that?
> 
> Who here is arguing for extending restrictions? I'm arguing for keeping some of them, such as covering faces in enclosed spaces, while relaxing others, as the data suggests.


This means extending the date those restrictions will be lifted currently.

Is this what you said or not?


----------



## mjr (7 Jul 2021)

Does anyone know more about this bit of Boris's statement on Monday: "There will be no Covid certificate required as a condition of entry to any venue or event, although businesses and events can certainly make use of certification"

If it cannot be a condition of entry, how are businesses and events expected to use it? Is Boris expecting pubs to have covid rooms like the old smoker rooms, maybe now with staff passing stuff ordered on an app or screen through an airlock so the staff are still safe at work?


----------



## mjr (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> This means extending the date those restrictions will be lifted currently.
> 
> Is this what you said or not?


I don't understand what that means, so it's probably not what I said, but I cannot be absolutely certain!

It seems deeply confused. For example, there is no date for those restrictions to be lifted currently. A decision will be taken next Monday whether to set 19th July as the date to lift all restrictions, if we are to believe the government. That's what I call surrendering to covid.

Let me try again: I believe that some restrictions should be maintained while some are lifted. I don't argue for extending any. I would even relax some old (pre-covid) restrictions on things like outdoor events that government doesn't seem to be contemplating, so the likes of gig venues and nightclubs don't have to choose between bankruptcy and encouraging cautious people in some localities into enclosed spaces.


----------



## Bazzer (7 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Does anyone know more about this bit of Boris's statement on Monday: "There will be no Covid certificate required as a condition of entry to any venue or event, although businesses and events can certainly make use of certification"
> 
> If it cannot be a condition of entry, how are businesses and events expected to use it? Is Boris expecting pubs to have covid rooms like the old smoker rooms, maybe now with staff passing stuff ordered on an app or screen through an airlock so the staff are still safe at work?


I would be surprised if any venue or event businesses will use it. Staff safety at work, pah!


----------



## shep (7 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> I don't understand what that means, so it's probably not what I said, but I cannot be absolutely certain!
> 
> It seems deeply confused. For example, there is no date for those restrictions to be lifted currently. A decision will be taken next Monday whether to set 19th July as the date to lift all restrictions, if we are to believe the government. That's what I call surrendering to covid.
> 
> Let me try again: I believe that some restrictions should be maintained while some are lifted. I don't argue for extending any. I would even relax some old (pre-covid) restrictions on things like outdoor events that government doesn't seem to be contemplating, so the likes of gig venues and nightclubs don't have to choose between bankruptcy and encouraging cautious people in some localities into enclosed spaces.


One last attempt,

On the 19th all restrictions are to be lifted.

You don't think they ALL should be and SOME should be kept in place?

The ones that you think should remain in place after the 19th would have been EXTENDED past that date.

Is this what you are saying?

If by using the phrase MAINTAINING rather than EXTENDING then say that in the first.


----------



## Rocky (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> One last attempt,
> 
> On the 19th all restrictions are to be lifted.
> 
> ...


I'm not sure you are correct about 19th [July]. People with close contact (to a Covid case) will still have to self-isolate (this will change on 16 August). Then double jabbers will not have to do this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57751033


----------



## mjr (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> One last attempt,
> 
> On the 19th all restrictions are to be lifted.


One last attempt: the 19th has not been decided yet, and not lifting them would be maintaining not extending. Extending restrictions would be things like requiring face coverings in town centre streets, which I do not favour.


----------



## PK99 (7 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Does anyone know more about this bit of Boris's statement on Monday: "There will be no Covid certificate required as a condition of entry to any venue or event, although businesses and events can certainly make use of certification"
> 
> If it cannot be a condition of entry, how are businesses and events expected to use it? Is Boris expecting pubs to have covid rooms like the old smoker rooms, maybe now with staff passing stuff ordered on an app or screen through an airlock so the staff are still safe at work?



Surely it means that there will be no mandated requirement for venues to have such an arrangement, but venues are free to have one if they wish and only offer entry and service to certificated individuals.

Much like over 21 only rule some places have.


----------



## johnblack (7 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> 1. That is not the same as saying that they think all restrictions should end now or on the 19th. I want them to end too, but when it is reasonably safe.
> 
> 2. That must have made conversations very dull


Yeah they would rather they were gone already. 

Dull but over and done with in a few seconds and on to the important stuff like Brexit.


----------



## kingrollo (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> They're being extended past the 19th then?
> 
> On tour where, you in the Army?
> 
> I'm a rigger and work all over the Country thanks.



Covid can cause brain fog as well..............

..


----------



## Johnno260 (7 Jul 2021)

What I don’t like is dimwits like this filtering ONS data and earning money off the ad revenue click bait. 

And his followers falling for it. 


View: https://twitter.com/dickdelingpole/status/1412313113135812608?s=21







It makes it look as if 2020 death rates were low, but it doesn’t take into account we were in national lockdown etc yet it gets liked and shared. 

His brother is some climate change denial nut.


----------



## Wobblers (7 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Does nobody see what I read?
> 
> "She can't smell, the smell of Chicken makes her ill."
> 
> How the f**k can she smell it if she can't smell!!



Do you understand that many deaf people can actually hear some sounds? And blind people who have some vestige of sight? But not enough to be useful, in either case. Same thing here. It's not an all-or-nothing thing. It's quite possible to lose your ability to smell most odours, and have the perception of what few you can still detect altered. When faced with an apparent contradiction like this, why not find out a little more about the issue? There are no shortage of internet search engines to help - and you'd learn more rather than have me bore you on the subject.

On restrictions, no one wants restrictions. I'd be delighted to be shot of them, and be able to get on with my life. But I also understand that with Delta, removing them will make things worse. If by extending them for a few more weeks means fewer problems in autumn and winter, that's not a terrible price to pay. 

But at the moment, I'll continue to wear a mask, no matter that I'm not at all keen on the damned thing. Because both my parents are in their 80s, and have comorbidities that put them into the highest risk group. Yes, they've been vaccinated, but there's still about a 2% chance of death should I bring them a present of Covid. And I also understand that there's plenty of people in the same situation as I, so I'll keep wearing hte mask for them - after all, it's just simple consideration..


----------



## cambsno (7 Jul 2021)

McWobble said:


> "If we don't relax now, when can we" is not a reason. There's no reasoning involved for starters. It is a justification.
> 
> There are no shortage of reasons why removing all restrictions is a high risk course. Delta is considerably more transmittable than any other widespread variant - and is _already_ spreading exponentially. This risks the NHS being overrun with Covid cases.
> 
> Furthermore, Covid does not just cause death. About 10% of those who contract it end up with long Covid - months of in some cases debilitating symptoms most notably persistent fatigue. A significant fraction - perhaps as high as 1% - will be unlucky enough to come out with more serious issues: many of which are likely to be permanently debilitating: strokes, heart damage, lung scarring, kidney damage. Treating and supporting these unfortunate people is an expense that will last years or decades. understand that the negative economic consequences of removing restrictions will be greater long term than the short term hit of not doing so. It is difficult to argue that removing restrictions makes economic sense.



Ok, so let's live in lockdown til 2024


----------



## classic33 (7 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> Ok, so let's live in lockdown til 2024


Why 2024?


----------



## cambsno (7 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> Why 2024?



Because if some have their way we wold live in lockdown for the next 2/3/4/5 years!


----------



## classic33 (7 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> Because if some have their way we wold live in lockdown for the next 2/3/4/5 years!


Repeat the question, you seem to have missed the point.
Why 2024?


----------



## Unkraut (8 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> Ok, so let's live in lockdown til 2024


It's the course of the virus that determines the response, not how fed up everyone is with the restrictions. Which everyone is.

There has been some considerable discussion of Boris wanting to ditch the restrictions here, especially in light of the 'life is going back to normal/the pandemic is over' message being sent out by full stadia during the football.

A report from Israel claimed a possible reduction in the effectiveness of BoiNTech down to 64% in face of the delta virus. A German virologist thought there is not enough data to make this claim yet, but that it is reasonable from what is known already that effectiveness might be down to around 90%. Time will tell.

In making his decision, Boris has factored in and accepted that the death rate will go up, and that long-term illness from covid will occur notwithstanding the younger end of the population will get it who tend to be better at fighting it off.

Boris has turned the UK into a giant laboratory experiment in that he is prepared to allow the delta virus to run rampant. There is consternation that failing to dampen down the infection rate and thereby having tens of thousands or more of infections each day _could _allow the virus to mutate, with the danger that newer versions get round the current vaccines.

I think most people get it that you cannot keep economies in lockdown for ever, and have to balance the damage to health and the healthcare system and livelihoods being lost. Never going to be an easy one to decide. From reading government information and from talking to friends in England I have gained the impression that govt action has been bureaucratic (as it has here) but has relied too much on a load of 'thou shalt not' commandments forbidding people from doing things, something here the govt has done a bit better on. Too much of this only produces in the end an attitude of defiance or rebellion, and if the ARD London correspondent was right that many in the UK have already decided in practice to ditch the hygiene rules and restrictions, the authoritarian approach might have something to do with it.

That said, the news claimed some 71% of Brits are not happy at the total lifting of restrictions. I don't know where they got this from, but they won't have made it up. At least it gives hope that some will continue to use good sense and recognise we are not out of the wood yet.


----------



## mjr (8 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> Because if some have their way we wold live in lockdown for the next 2/3/4/5 years!


We haven't been in lockdown for months and nobody is arguing for years of it. Are you scared or unable to argue against real views?


----------



## mjr (8 Jul 2021)

Unkraut said:


> Boris has turned the UK into a giant laboratory experiment in that he is prepared to allow the delta virus to run rampant.


A "dangerous and unethical experiment" according to a letter from leading doctors: https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-reopening-restrictions-england-dangerous-unethical-5489153-Jul2021/


----------



## cambsno (8 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> We haven't been in lockdown for months and nobody is arguing for years of it. Are you scared or unable to argue against real views?



Restrictions then - I used to work with pubs in the past and know that many need the table service restriction to end in order to be viable, the longer this carry on the more pubs will close, jobs lost etc... People are meeting up in larger groups than allowed already.

The mask thing is a mistake, although they should be mandatory with no exceptions as too many 'cant' wear a mask. So in that respect its pretty much optional already!


----------



## Pale Rider (8 Jul 2021)

The infection rate in Sunderland has shot up to over 700 per 100,000 population, compared to a national average of 201.

Not sure why we are doing so badly, but I suppose I'd better continue to keep my head down.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274


----------



## mjr (8 Jul 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> The infection rate in Sunderland has shot up [...] Not sure why we are doing so badly, but I suppose I'd better continue to keep my head down.


Plenty of suggestions in other posts, like:



cambsno said:


> People are meeting up in larger groups than allowed already. [...] too many 'cant' wear a mask.


but I guess you're right, we're not sure. I also feel there is a lack of urgency from government for finding out why because it would probably suggest continuing restrictions or imposing new ones and that doesn't fit Boris's irreversible narrative towards surrender.



cambsno said:


> Restrictions then - I used to work with pubs in the past and know that many need the table service restriction to end in order to be viable, the longer this carry on the more pubs will close, jobs lost etc...


I was at one place last week which was taking orders at a till by the garden entry, then you either took your drink(s) on the way to your table if the order was ready in the time it took to take payment (they were pretty fast) or it was brought over by waiting staff. If you wanted another, you actually went out the exit and back in again. I'm not sure if that was strictly legal under current restrictions, but it should be!

To be blunt, if carrying a few drinks to tables (collecting empties on the way back, although I bet that's more often than usual) is enough to send a pub under, then it probably wasn't going to survive next winter anyway. Should we really cause a lot more infections and a few more deaths to give such businesses a few more months trading?



cambsno said:


> People are meeting up in larger groups than allowed already.


If it's outdoors, 1m+ and groups aren't mixing, I would have relaxed the group size restriction further already, but I would make it that if one of such a group tests positive, they should all quarantine until two negative tests a few days apart, so that risk might motivate smaller groups.



cambsno said:


> The mask thing is a mistake, although they should be mandatory with no exceptions as too many 'cant' wear a mask. So in that respect its pretty much optional already!


I wouldn't say "no exceptions" but I would be in favour of proof to be carried and shown to public health officers on request.

The problem with lifting this particular restriction is that there are people who post (here and elsewhere) that they are currently covering their face when legally required but will bin their masks when the law is repealed, and decreasing use will increase transmission, so this change especially seems a pretty needless risk to take. Are enough people to make a difference to business survival really not going to the pub or whatever because they have to wear a mask to go to the bog? I suspect more are going to be deterred by the increase in unmasked nobbers in pubs, so this change will actually hurt them, even if there is no business-destroying surge in deaths.

We have seen repeatedly during this that there is a significant "me-me-me" group who won't do the right things voluntarily but will if they risk fines or even peer pressure, and the government maybe knows that there's enough of them to cause a bigger third wave. The most likely conclusion seems to be that they are trying the "herd immunity" gambit again, hoping that it won't flood the NHS this time (mainly due to vaccination), hoping it will be over before schools go back and sacrificing the smaller number of deaths and greater number of long-covid sufferers!


----------



## Bromptonaut (8 Jul 2021)

McWobble said:


> Do you understand that many deaf people can actually hear some sounds?



A colleague of mine, providing face to face advice to a deaf client who could make sense of either vibration, lip reading or both had a DWP employee comment 'she's not that deaf is she?' 

Evelyn Glennie is an excellent example of a deaf person who appears to converse normally. I had a colleague in a previous job who could also do the same.


----------



## PK99 (8 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> The most likely conclusion *seems* to be



More heavy lifting by that word! 

It seemed to me from your previous posts you disapproved of this?


----------



## mjr (8 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> More heavy lifting by that word!
> 
> It seemed to me from your previous posts you disapproved of this?


That's not heavy lifting, as it is only supporting a concluding description of what appears to me to be the case. I definitely didn't build a whole post on arguing against that perception (or for it, actually), which is what I think I pointed out earlier, and I'm open to other more likely conclusions being pointed out, if you have any, but I think you would have posted them if you did.


----------



## Bazzer (8 Jul 2021)

Bromptonaut said:


> A colleague of mine, providing face to face advice to a deaf client who could make sense of either vibration, lip reading or both had a DWP employee comment 'she's not that deaf is she?'
> 
> Evelyn Glennie is an excellent example of a deaf person who appears to converse normally. I had a colleague in a previous job who could also do the same.


Indeed, her skills are beyond most people without hearing difficulties.


----------



## mjr (8 Jul 2021)

The end of this show reminded me of the freedom day arguments. Which version of freedom do we want? The freedom to hurt others or the freedom not to be hurt? The War on Cars: The One Where They Go Back to the Studio http://waroncars.org/the-one-where-they-go-back-to-the-studio


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## classic33 (8 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> The mask thing is a mistake, although they should be mandatory with no exceptions as too many 'cant' wear a mask. So in that respect its pretty much optional already!


There's more "can't wear a mask" this year, than this time last year. Does little to slow their gaping or smoking though. And a load seem to be either headed to or coming from a pub. I've seen some who had no such trouble whilst the pubs were shut. But a card on a sunflower lanyard gets you out of wearing one.


mjr said:


> I wouldn't say "no exceptions" but I would be in favour of proof to be carried and shown to public health officers on request.


A few issues,
What sort of evidence. 
I've been asked for written proof, doctors letter, my blue badge. I don't drive so no blue badge. Doctors letter would cost £17.50 minimum, who pays?
I think a swollen mouth, with added blood, and "raspy breathing" should be proof enough.

Public Health Officer
Should they be allowed to ask if they themselves don't abide by the rules. We'd "jumped up" "Ambassadors", who the year before were there to help people within the town centre, suddenly given the power to ask people to comply with the regulations. They didn't have to as they "talking to people", handing out QR code sheets and signage to shops that were open along with checking that they were sticking to the rules.

It's safe to say that I had my fill of council badge waving last. Waving to show that they were council employee's and didn't have to do what everyone else did.

Something you can both try, paper mask.
Open your mouth and draw as much air in as possible, as quick as possible. Where does the mask end up?

Bike pump, rapidly pump up an innertube. What does the pump feel like when you're done. Now imagine six litres in the time it took you to do the first two strokes of the pump, and the effect of that on the throat.

I'm aware that I've said I use a full face mask, but there's times when that hasn't been possible. I'll comply as best I can, but I know that there'll be times that's not possible, nor practical.

Come back when you can give a workaround the above.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Jul 2021)

Two observations from today -

1) I was turned away from 4 sites around Inverness this morning. No visitors due to Covid outbreaks amongst staff - 2 of them had 50% or more isolating. 3 of them linked it with staff going to football related crowd events.

2) Our Tesco shopping delivery had a lot of shortages tonight, including water rather surprisingly. The delivery guy explained there was an outbreak at the "picking centre" (distribution hub?) which meant the supermarket had lots of empty shelves including - no water!

Is this why the Govt want to change the isolation rules for the vaccinated?


----------



## Bromptonaut (8 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> The mask thing is a mistake, although they should be mandatory with no exceptions as too many 'cant' wear a mask. So in that respect its pretty much optional already!



Explain no exceptions to my partner who cannot breathe through one if exerting herself - eg using stairs over several storeys where there's no lift. 

Or someone for whom something held over their nose/mouth recalls a traumatic incident in their lives.


----------



## FishFright (8 Jul 2021)

A couple of pages back people were discussing changes to / loss of sense of smell. I believe this is related to certain covid proteins crossing the blood brain barrier which sounds a lot scarier .

Use Google scholar if you'd like to get more worried.


----------



## mjr (9 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> A few issues,
> What sort of evidence.
> I've been asked for written proof, doctors letter, my blue badge. I don't drive so no blue badge. Doctors letter would cost £17.50 minimum, who pays?
> I think a swollen mouth, with added blood, and "raspy breathing" should be proof enough.


I don't think it's really fair to ask you to demonstrate that each time someone requests proof. I've an open mind on proof, but it ought to be free, maybe a QR code cryptographically-signed by a doctor (whether physical or mental health) that could be downloaded from your login screen at their practice or whatever.

I know there's currently no definition of what proof of exemption is because this lame government did half a job yet again and people were making it up as they went along, and I don't think any cases have ever reached court to clarify whether the line is.



classic33 said:


> Public Health Officer
> Should they be allowed to ask if they themselves don't abide by the rules.


Probably not and they probably shouldn't be Public Health Officers, or at least started on the disciplinary pathway.



> We'd "jumped up" "Ambassadors", who the year before were there to help people within the town centre, suddenly given the power to ask people to comply with the regulations. They didn't have to as they "talking to people", handing out QR code sheets and signage to shops that were open along with checking that they were sticking to the rules.


Yeah, I think I've written on here about one town's "Street Rangers" shouting at people, resulting in me no longer shopping in that town. I don't like it. Maybe their employers will notice that the market punishes them for this.



> Something you can both try, paper mask.


What's the point, meduck? I agree with you that people who have real problems should be exempt. It's the perfectly-well laughing idiots who go "ha ha yeah we are all exempt" as they get on the train who this was trying to catch.


----------



## mjr (9 Jul 2021)

FishFright said:


> A couple of pages back people were discussing changes to / loss of sense of smell. I believe this is related to certain covid proteins crossing the blood brain barrier which sounds a lot scarier .
> 
> Use Google scholar if you'd like to get more worried.


It sounds scary but some medications already do that, as do things like glucose.

I could do random Google searches, but I expect the health scammers rank higher than reasonable peer-reviewed opinions and medical texts are not easy for non-specialists.


----------



## AuroraSaab (9 Jul 2021)

Oldest was on the trams in Manchester today. Said few passengers were wearing masks, which are mandatory. Not too busy so he was OK about it. A friend was at the Trafford Centre last week and said shoppers were wearing them in the actual shops but about 60% were walking around the centre with them off. Looks like freedom day complacency has started already round here.


----------



## Bazzer (9 Jul 2021)

It was present a few days ago. On babysitting duties, for a change Mrs B and I took our grandchild into Manchester on the tram. Use of masks and where used, being on the face properly, left a lot to be desired. With hindsight, we should have acted upon our discomfort and without our granddaughter, we would probably have abandoned the journey.
We chose the tram thinking, a) it was environmentally better than driving and b) mask use would be commonplace. This has backfired badly on us both, as we were both pinged today by the NHS app and went for Covid tests. - The outcome of which is awaited.
Tracking back our activities, unless it is a false notification, the contact could have only happened on the day we went on the tram and on the tram itself.😡


----------



## cambsno (9 Jul 2021)

Bromptonaut said:


> Explain no exceptions to my partner who cannot breathe through one if exerting herself - eg using stairs over several storeys where there's no lift.
> 
> Or someone for whom something held over their nose/mouth recalls a traumatic incident in their lives.



People can still wear the face shields.


----------



## Bromptonaut (9 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> People can still wear the face shields.



Yes but they're not masks. 

Different level of protection. 

The question posed was masks with no exceptions.


----------



## KnittyNorah (9 Jul 2021)

Bazzer said:


> It was present a few days ago. On babysitting duties, for a change Mrs B and I took our grandchild into Manchester on the tram. Use of masks and where used, being on the face properly, left a lot to be desired. With hindsight, we should have acted upon our discomfort and without our granddaughter, we would probably have abandoned the journey.
> We chose the tram thinking, a) it was environmentally better than driving and b) mask use would be commonplace. This has backfired badly on us both, as we were both pinged today by the NHS app and went for Covid tests. - The outcome of which is awaited.
> Tracking back our activities, unless it is a false notification, the contact could have only happened on the day we went on the tram and on the tram itself.😡


A friend of mine who has to cross Manchester for her essential work, and thus has often needed to use the tram throughout the past 18mo, tells me that tram users have _never _been 'good' mask wearers and she has made many, many journeys where she has felt 'assaulted by breath'. The non-mask-wearers, she said, radiated arrogance, aggression and belligerence. She just kept her head down, double masked, tried as far as possible to keep away from people and cleaned face and hands with anti-viral wipes immediately on exiting the tram.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (10 Jul 2021)

I see that South Tyneside is now over 1,000 cases per 100,000 





A sign of things to come for the rest of England in the coming weeks I fear


----------



## Brandane (10 Jul 2021)

Fraulein Sturgeon has gone strangely quiet recently. No regular TV briefings to reassure her foot soldiers that everything was going to be fine.
The cynic in me suspects this graph might explain why she has been lying (no pun intended) low:


----------



## Cirrus (10 Jul 2021)

Brandane said:


> Fraulein Sturgeon has gone strangely quiet recently. No regular TV briefings to reassure her foot soldiers that everything was going to be fine.
> The cynic in me suspects this graph might explain why she has been lying (no pun intended) low:
> 
> View attachment 598240


Banning the plague riddled people of Manchester visiting didn't help then.


----------



## Brandane (10 Jul 2021)

With reference to the above graph, why would any country open their borders to UK travellers?
Boris can put as many countries as he likes on his "green list" and announce it as some sort of victorious progress, but it means absolutely hee-haw as long as the green list countries won't let us in (without severe conditions attached)!


----------



## Brandane (10 Jul 2021)

Cirrus said:


> Banning the plague riddled people of Manchester visiting didn't help then.


The good people of Manchester must have been gutted that they weren't allowed to come to Scotland and take it home with them .


----------



## Bazzer (10 Jul 2021)

Bazzer said:


> It was present a few days ago. On babysitting duties, for a change Mrs B and I took our grandchild into Manchester on the tram. Use of masks and where used, being on the face properly, left a lot to be desired. With hindsight, we should have acted upon our discomfort and without our granddaughter, we would probably have abandoned the journey.
> We chose the tram thinking, a) it was environmentally better than driving and b) mask use would be commonplace. This has backfired badly on us both, as we were both pinged today by the NHS app and went for Covid tests. - The outcome of which is awaited.
> Tracking back our activities, unless it is a false notification, the contact could have only happened on the day we went on the tram and on the tram itself.😡


Well, at least we are both negative, although I would have been shocked if it had been positive.
Really not looking forward to being a lab rat after the 19th.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (10 Jul 2021)

Brandane said:


> *Fraulein* Sturgeon



?


----------



## FishFright (10 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> It sounds scary but some medications already do that, as do things like glucose.
> 
> I could do random Google searches, but I expect the health scammers rank higher than reasonable peer-reviewed opinions and medical texts are not easy for non-specialists.



Google scholar only returns peer reviewed paper and the top result is from Nature but I'll bear in mind what you reckon.


----------



## Low Gear Guy (10 Jul 2021)

Brandane said:


> Fraulein Sturgeon has gone strangely quiet recently. No regular TV briefings to reassure her foot soldiers that everything was going to be fine.
> The cynic in me suspects this graph might explain why she has been lying (no pun intended) low:
> 
> View attachment 598240


Why are you looking at data for 2020?


----------



## Brandane (10 Jul 2021)

Low Gear Guy said:


> Why are you looking at data for 2020?


Good point! I'm assuming a typo by the BBC? As it is on today's news page....
Post #18479 edited.


----------



## classic33 (10 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> People can still wear the face shields.


To be worn with a mask at the same time, since July last year.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 Jul 2021)

My daughter has finally managed to get a booking for her 2nd jab. I posted about this before the end of June and I got advice from a CC member via conversations. Her NHS app was showing that she'd had her 2nd in Buckinghamshire in June but the app had somehow got crossed with someone with a similar (but not identical) surname. She still can't use the app but she can get a needle in her arm on Monday.

Thanks to those who helped with this.


----------



## midlife (10 Jul 2021)

Cancelled clinics at work again because staff are isolating. Staff being pinged by the app have to phone occupational health and they will decide what you should do.

Is on the news that's its going to get worse before it gets better.... Just how much worse nobody at work will, or can't, tell us.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (10 Jul 2021)

midlife said:


> Cancelled clinics at work again because staff are isolating. Staff being pinged by the app have to phone occupational health and they will decide what you should do.
> 
> Is on the news that's its going to get worse before it gets better.... Just how much worse nobody at work will, or can't, tell us.


And listening on the radio, I just discovered that ''pingdemic'' was now a word!


----------



## Bazzer (10 Jul 2021)

midlife said:


> Cancelled clinics at work again because staff are isolating. Staff being pinged by the app have to phone occupational health and they will decide what you should do.
> 
> Is on the news that's its going to get worse before it gets better.... Just how much worse nobody at work will, or can't, tell us.


I'm curious. How does that work with occupational health? Surely staff should follow the government guidelines?


----------



## midlife (10 Jul 2021)

There is no legal obligation to follow the alerts on the app, unlike test and trace where there is (and a fine)

If we are contacted by test and trace we have to do as we are told. Occupational health run the PCR testing for staff and family and I think that's how it goes. Bucket loads of testing not isolating if pinged by the app. 

I'm sure I sent the email to my home account I'll check.


----------



## mjr (10 Jul 2021)

midlife said:


> There is no legal obligation to follow the alerts on the app, unlike test and trace where there is (and a fine)


Maybe not legal, but the question was whether it followed the guidelines.

It is odd that law and guidelines disagree so much IMO but that's been the case throughout this crisis.


----------



## mjr (10 Jul 2021)

King's Lynn pub closed after covid outbreak linked to England-Ukraine footsie match. I'm surprised it's only one pub here so far, what with most screens being indoors and people shouting and hugging each other after goals and final whistle. https://www.lynnnews.co.uk/news/kings-lynn-pub-closes-after-coronavirus-outbreak-9206860/


----------



## lane (10 Jul 2021)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> I see that South Tyneside is now over 1,000 cases per 100,000
> View attachment 598227
> 
> A sign of things to come for the rest of England in the coming weeks I fear



Big increase but still relatively low they were about 1,200 here in the autumn compared with the 150 shown in the graph.


----------



## lane (10 Jul 2021)

Just back from a 4 day touring holiday staying at B and B using cafes etc. Absolutely no consistency in terms of signing into establishments for test and trace some very strict some have absolutely no way of signing in if you want to. Personally although concerned about lifting restrictions I don't think there is much option it seems very unfair to penalise some individuals and businesses when others are given carte blanch to do what the hell they like and if it's football the rules don't apply - fook that.


----------



## lane (10 Jul 2021)

Taking part in an Audax next weekend we are limited to 30 and have to set off in groups of six, fifteen minutes apart. If it's football it's ok to have 60,000. Why should I be penalised because It enjoy cycling not football? No sooner restrictions are gone the better then I can be treated the same as everyone else.


----------



## mjr (10 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> [...] Personally although concerned about lifting restrictions I don't think there is much option it seems very unfair to penalise some individuals and businesses when others are given carte blanch to do what the hell they like and if it's football the rules don't apply - fook that.


Yes, the current situation is unfair, but the obvious alternative to surrendering to covid is to make the restrictions consistent and evidence-based. Consistency is not this government's strong skill, though.


----------



## lane (10 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Yes, the current situation is unfair, but the obvious alternative to surrendering to covid is to make the restrictions consistent and evidence-based. Consistency is not this government's strong skill, though.



Yes I agree but what you suggest isn't going to happen as we both know so isn't a - realistic - alternative.


----------



## shep (10 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> No sooner restrictions are gone the better then I can be treated the same as everyone else.


And hopefully you'll all stop moaning, but I very much doubt it.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (11 Jul 2021)

Glad to hear that Wales is going to continue with face masks for the time being, a sensible decision. Hopefully Sturgeon will confirm the same for here. England is heading for catastrophe.


----------



## Milkfloat (11 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Taking part in an Audax next weekend we are limited to 30 and have to set off in groups of six, fifteen minutes apart. If it's football it's ok to have 60,000. Why should I be penalised because It enjoy cycling not football? No sooner restrictions are gone the better then I can be treated the same as everyone else.


For the football, in theory everybody attending needs proof of a negative test or proof of double vaccination, your audax does not need either of those. To be fair, I would feel safer at an audax.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (11 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Taking part in an Audax next weekend we are limited to 30 and have to set off in groups of six, fifteen minutes apart. If it's football it's ok to have 60,000. Why should I be penalised because It enjoy cycling not football? No sooner restrictions are gone the better then I can be treated the same as everyone else.



That is bonkers for the Audax TBF. Risk must be tiny.


----------



## Ajax Bay (11 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Taking part in an Audax next weekend we are limited to 30 and have to set off in groups of six, fifteen minutes apart.


Those were the old rules (before 16 Jun) and a calendar event now has no limit, afaik:
https://audax.uk/static-data/covid-restrictions/
A permanent has a maximum of 30 per day.
It is up to the oraniser how they wish to arrange their event eg sending off riders at intervals in groups of whatever. LEL does just that, and PBP too.
"Why should I be penalised because It enjoy cycling not football?"
What is this penalty of which you speak?
Lots of people couldn't get tickets to a footie match. Why should they be 'penalised' while cyclists can use the roads without even paying road tax? Why should 22 players who can't achieve a goals scored differential be penalised by the mental trauma of a penalty shoot-out for one of the most important moments in their lives? I guess life's just not fair (as my father used to remind us, periodically).
LLEL (1000km) had 33 starters (finish today).


----------



## lane (11 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Those were the old rules (before 16 Jun) and a calendar event now has no limit, afaik:
> https://audax.uk/static-data/covid-restrictions/
> A permanent has a maximum of 30 per day.
> It is up to the oraniser how they wish to arrange their event eg sending off riders at intervals in groups of whatever. LEL does just that, and PBP too.
> ...


 It's the Audax that's happening next weekend


----------



## shep (11 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> It's the Audax that's happening next weekend


How about people who want to go to a Nightclub or an indoor concert?

They can't do that at all. 

Moan, moan, moan.


----------



## Kajjal (11 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> How about people who want to go to a Nightclub or an indoor concert?
> 
> They can't do that at all.
> 
> Moan, moan, moan.


Do you think they should be able right now to go to nightclubs ?


----------



## shep (11 Jul 2021)

Kajjal said:


> Do you think they should be able right now to go to nightclubs ?


Probably not but the point is this fella's moaning about a minor inconvenience and some forms of entertainment are still banned completely. 

How about the poor gits wanting to get married and reception limitations?

Everyone has to make sacrifices yet mention football and some are on it like a rash.


----------



## midlife (11 Jul 2021)

I though marriages were allowed unlimited guests?


----------



## Julia9054 (11 Jul 2021)

Kajjal said:


> Do you think they should be able right now to go to nightclubs ?


Actually, right now I do.
It's a question of checks and balances. I would:
Open up the hospitality and entertainment industry completely. Ditto clubs, sports and hobbies. Also weddings etc. These can be avoided if people want to.
Keep masks compulsory on public transport and in supermarkets. These are much harder to avoid. 
Authorise vaccination for 12 - 16 year olds. Every family's situation is different and this option should be available. 
Close schools for the holidays a week early which will reduce the cases in this age group which are currently increasing rapidly. Use the extra time in the empty buildings to upgrade ventilation. End contact isolation in school children and staff on return in September.


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## shep (11 Jul 2021)

midlife said:


> I though marriages were allowed unlimited guests?


If restrictions are lifted on the 19th in England, as of yet there are still limits.


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## shep (11 Jul 2021)

Steam rallies, Scooter rallies, VW shows/meets/rallies, Classic Motorcycle Shows, Concerts/Gigs, none of these have happened since march last year and I attend around 20 per year yet I don't feel I'm being treated 'unfairly' and 'unlike everyone else' because I'm realistic!

They will all come back in time but you can't have it both ways, "too early to lift restrictions but I can't wait till they do so I can be treated like a Football fan".

Hilarious!


----------



## PaulB (11 Jul 2021)

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/09/im-an-ae-doctor-covid-patients-are-younger-this-time

It's depressing stuff like this that makes me lose all hope.

This ICU doctor - the front-line of the front-line - is telling us here that Covid-deniers are still denying Covid exists as the doctors are strapping oxygen masks to their faces! He's asking if the very same group they'll be treating for Covid in the future caught it only because they don't believe it exists as these are the very group of people who are predominantly catching it.

It's like people from rural Yorkshire in 1940 refusing to believe the blitz existed because their homes hadn't been bombed and neither had any other home they knew of in their area.

Wards and departments were returning to normal only to now be turning them back into the Covid wards they were previously and we can be pretty sure once everything opens up in eight days, things will of course get considerably worse. 

10 hour waits for people having to go to A&E.

Hospitals full to bad-winter capacities in July! 

Genuinely exhausted staff with low resilience after 16 months of fighting the Covid battle. 

And this is from an unnamed Consultant in an unnamed hospital in the North West. Repeated many, many times around the country, of that I am certain.


----------



## Ajax Bay (11 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> It's the Audax that's happening next weekend


As I say, this is a framework imposed by the organiser, not Audax UK, nor any other 'authority'. Pleased that you are going to support the organiser in the way they wish to run their ride.


----------



## Ajax Bay (11 Jul 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> Keep masks compulsory on public transport and in supermarkets. These are much harder to avoid.
> Authorise vaccination for 12 - 16 year olds. Every family's situation is different and this option should be available.
> Close schools for the holidays a week early which will reduce the cases in this age group which are currently increasing rapidly. Use the extra time in the empty buildings to upgrade ventilation. End contact isolation in school children and staff on return in September.


Agree with each one of those excellent suggestions, Julia.👍
Got any data on the rate of increase of 12-16 year olds? (Just asking)


----------



## mjr (11 Jul 2021)

It's coming home, it's coming home, it's coming, covid's coming home. Footsie fans push into Wembley and try to push into Trafalgar Square says https://www.itv.com/news/2021-07-11...-security-at-wembley-ahead-of-euro-2020-final


----------



## mjr (11 Jul 2021)

Just stupid scenes in London earlier today:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Urban_Pictures/status/1414241047883001856


----------



## cambsno (11 Jul 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> Actually, right now I do.
> It's a question of checks and balances. I would:
> Open up the hospitality and entertainment industry completely. Ditto clubs, sports and hobbies. Also weddings etc. These can be avoided if people want to.
> Keep masks compulsory on public transport and in supermarkets. These are much harder to avoid.
> ...



Cant argue with any of that.


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (12 Jul 2021)

Posting again, 100,000 infections a day = 10-20,000 long covid cases a day.


> amid rising cases Prof Altmann warned that it is not yet known if vaccinations will protect people from long-term symptoms.
> "If we're heading into a phase of 100,000 cases per day, and, we're saying that 10-20% of all infections can result in long Covid, I can see no certainty that we're not brewing those long Covid cases despite having a vaccinated population," he said.


Long Covid: Early findings bring hope for diagnostic tests https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57776010


----------



## matticus (12 Jul 2021)

midlife said:


> I though marriages were allowed unlimited guests?


That's how _I _treat our marriage, not everyone agrees with me


----------



## Bazzer (12 Jul 2021)

Well the rising infection rate seems to be affecting my mother's care workers. Speaking with my sister yesterday, our Mum is supposed to be visited four times a day, but last week, on at least two days, there were no carers for the allotted slots. Simply not enough staff because they were infected, *pinged by the track and trace app*, or their children were sent home from school, so couldn't work.

*Edited to add this.


----------



## bitsandbobs (12 Jul 2021)

Kajjal said:


> Do you think they should be able right now to go to nightclubs ?



The Netherlands reopened nightclubs two weeks ago. They've now shut them again in the face of skyrocketing infection rates.

On the first night they reopened, there was one club where 1/4 of all people who went there got infected.


----------



## Kajjal (12 Jul 2021)

bitsandbobs said:


> The Netherlands reopened nightclubs two weeks ago. They've now shut them again in the face of skyrocketing infection rates.
> 
> On the first night they reopened, there was one club where 1/4 of all people who went there got infected.


Makes you wonder what the fall out will be based on that in the UK from football supporters both at Wembley and in large crowds round the country at large.


----------



## pawl (12 Jul 2021)

Kajjal said:


> Makes you wonder what the fall out will be based on that in the UK from football supporters both at Wembley and in large crowds round the country at large.





Exactly the same out come I would guess But then again Boris knows best


----------



## mjr (12 Jul 2021)

First of all, big  that Boris has announced the expected government surrender to covid next Monday. No matter how much he stresses it's “absolutely vital we proceed with caution” and that we “cannot simply revert instantly ... to life as it was before”, we know a substantial minority of selfish idiots are going to do so. I feel it's completely irresponsible not to protect the public from them.

Secondly, this graph from SAGE is interesting, suggesting that vaccination means hospitals could now cope with R up to 1.5:






Which would be great except the current estimate is 1.3-1.6 in several regions. They're cutting this very close. This is one heck of a gamble. I wouldn't take it if I had a choice.

And I feel Boris did have a choice. They can wibble about the weather meaning September unlocking would be worse, but that's because they've pretty much completely failed to encourage three-season outdoor hospitality. England has seen very few of the encouragements and legal easements for outdoor eating and drinking that neighbouring countries have done. In fact, England has actually gone the other way, with local council covid inspectors requiring some outdoor tables to be removed from existing terraces/gardens and two sides of windbreaks to be removed at all times! This is not impossible to change, but it appears the decision is it's easier to abandon thousands more to death than to change our streets.

And finally, Whitty came out with the gem that there is no cut-off point for hospital admissions to stop the unlocking (rendering the "unsustainable pressure on the NHS" test pretty much meaningless), Johnson said he's willing to accept a peak of 100-200 deaths a day as the price of surrender, and they were all silent about long covid cases as far as I heard.

So, how was it for you?


----------



## Rocky (12 Jul 2021)

A man who has never taken responsibility for his own actions, urges the English population to act responsibly. What could possibly go wrong?


----------



## PK99 (12 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> e they've pretty much completely failed to encourage three-season outdoor hospitality. England has seen very few of the encouragements and legal easements for outdoor eating and drinking that neighbouring countries have done. In fact, England has actually gone the other way, with local council covid inspectors requiring some outdoor tables to be removed from existing terraces/gardens and two sides of windbreaks to be removed at all times! This is not impossible to change, but it appears the decision is it's easier to abandon thousands more to death than to change our streets.



https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ce-pavement-licences-outdoor-seating-proposal

Also, I've seen many places with outdoor, covered partially heated spaces, here (SW19) Kent & Sussex. The transformation in parts of cental London is remarkable


----------



## mjr (12 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ce-pavement-licences-outdoor-seating-proposal
> 
> Also, I've seen many places with outdoor, covered partially heated spaces, here (SW19) Kent & Sussex. The transformation in parts of cental London is remarkable


I draw your attention to 1.7. Licences can only be granted for basically pedestrian zones. Few new ped zones have been created during covid outside of the big cities, so no pavement seating. No question of doing something like Blackrock in Ireland and taking space from cars.

I've seen a woodland place set up cabanas and a few gardens gain covers but it really has been very little.


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## mjr (13 Jul 2021)

Doctors call surrender "irresponsible" https://www.thejournal.ie/doctors-criticise-johnson-covid-restrictions-england-5493614-Jul2021/


----------



## fossyant (13 Jul 2021)

Kajjal said:


> Makes you wonder what the fall out will be based on that in the UK from football supporters both at Wembley and in large crowds round the country at large.



Big increase in next week or two - I'm not going back to work just yet - work in an office full of under 30's - they will all have been in the pubs the last few weeks for the matches.


----------



## fossyant (13 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ce-pavement-licences-outdoor-seating-proposal
> 
> Also, I've seen many places with outdoor, covered partially heated spaces, here (SW19) Kent & Sussex. The transformation in parts of cental London is remarkable



Lots of open air places have opened in Manchester. Freight Island being one, and the indoor area is actually a massive 'train station' - loads of air flow going through - you still need a coat if it's cold. Outdoor has heaters and covered areas - lots of 'space'. It's booked solid for weeks !


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## cambsno (13 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ce-pavement-licences-outdoor-seating-proposal
> 
> Also, I've seen many places with outdoor, covered partially heated spaces, here (SW19) Kent & Sussex. The transformation in parts of cental London is remarkable



Outdoor space is simply not possible for so many places, and with our weather, it limits outdoor easting and drinking considerably.


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## mjr (13 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> Outdoor space is simply not possible for so many places, and with our weather, it limits outdoor easting and drinking considerably.


Our weather is not that much worse than northern France and the Belgian coast, or Germany's Baltic coast, all of which are more outdoorsy than here. Even Ireland seems to be giving it a go.

And how many places have neither outdoor space nor a street that could lose some car parking spaces or be home-zoned? This should be part of building back better, but political will seems lacking.


----------



## FishFright (13 Jul 2021)

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/uks-awful-experiment-will-threaten-nz 

" _*If you wanted to teach the coronavirus how to evade vaccine-induced immunity, you would do what the United Kingdom is about to*_ " 

I'm beginning to think the front bench is intentionally creating a pariah state.


----------



## Ajax Bay (13 Jul 2021)

bitsandbobs said:


> The Netherlands reopened nightclubs two weeks ago. They've now shut them again in the face of skyrocketing infection rates.
> On the first night they reopened, there was one club where 1/4 of all people who went there got infected.





Kajjal said:


> Makes you wonder what the fall out will be based on that in the UK from football supporters both at Wembley and in large crowds round the country at large.





pawl said:


> Exactly the same outcome I would guess But then again Boris knows best


Night club = inside, poor ventilation
Fanzones and stadia = outside and ventilated
Far, far less risk.


----------



## Bazzer (13 Jul 2021)

The daughter of a friend of Mrs B's was admitted to hospital yesterday. Late 40s, twice jabbed, but now in ICU with C19+.
Obvs one of the unlucky (currently) 2%


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## Ajax Bay (13 Jul 2021)

FishFright said:


> " _*If you wanted to teach the coronavirus how to evade vaccine-induced immunity, you would do what the United Kingdom is about to*_ "


And New Zealand's approach to this is to not vaccinate its people: currently at 15% of their population have had one jab. A perfectly reasonable approach for a remote island: not so much for a cosmopolitan country which has had restrictions necessarily imposed for 16 months and which has vaccinated a high percentage of its population.
Cases are dropping in Wales, Northern Ireland and, markedly, [edit] exponentially decaying in Scotland.


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## roubaixtuesday (13 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> stadia = outside and ventilated



Concourses, travel, prematch pub, very much inside, highly crowded and poorly ventilated.


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## FishFright (13 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> And New Zealand's approach to this is to not vaccinate its people: currently at 15% of their population have had one jab. A perfectly reasonable approach for a remote island: not so much for a cosmopolitan country which has had restrictions necessarily imposed for 16 months and which has vaccinated a high percentage of its population.
> Cases are dropping in Wales, Northern Ireland and, markedly, Scotland.



Have you not noticed how NZ's infection rate is tiny because they have a functioning government. They had no need to put it all on black and hope.


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## Ajax Bay (13 Jul 2021)

As we have discussed ad nauseam before, New Zealand is a remote, low population density set of islands and the short time since european colonisation (towns/cities) /and recent tight immigration policy has prevented cramped urban areas. Noone needs to go there (I recommend they do though: it's amazing ime - and that's for only about 3 two day journeys between work commitments). They can without detriment close their borders and have done so. The population is markedly fit and healthy (compared to world and UK norms).
Well done to them - their government was not required to make difficult decisions.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (13 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Night club = inside, poor ventilation
> Fanzones and stadia = outside and ventilated
> Far, far less risk.



Mass open air events.

*Definitely* safe.


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1414987783664504833


----------



## Mo1959 (13 Jul 2021)

Bazzer said:


> The daughter of a friend of Mrs B's was admitted to hospital yesterday. Late 40s, twice jabbed, but now in ICU with C19+.
> Obvs one of the unlucky (currently) 2%


They never seem to mention the age groups and vaccination status of the latest deaths do they?


----------



## classic33 (13 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Cases are dropping in Wales, Northern Ireland and, markedly, Scotland.


Ireland, which shares a land border with the UK, is seeing a rise in the last week.


----------



## Ajax Bay (13 Jul 2021)

1 in 20 at an open air (Dutch music) festival with lots of 'inter-personal interaction'. Seems low given prevalence in that cohort.
Increasing dominance of Delta variant will be a significant driver in the Republic of Ireland.


----------



## cambsno (13 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Our weather is not that much worse than northern France and the Belgian coast, or Germany's Baltic coast, all of which are more outdoorsy than here. Even Ireland seems to be giving it a go.
> 
> And how many places have neither outdoor space nor a street that could lose some car parking spaces or be home-zoned? This should be part of building back better, but political will seems lacking.



In a previous job I used to call on hundreds of pubs a month - those in cities like a lot of London or even smaller towns like Cambridge do not always have the option with space, and may be on narrowish pavements. I can think of a few of my favourite pubs in Cambridge which has a small or no outdoor space.


----------



## classic33 (13 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> 1 in 20 at an open air (Dutch music) festival with lots of 'inter-personal interaction'. Seems low given prevalence in that cohort.
> Increasing dominance of Delta variant will be a significant driver in the Republic of Ireland.


Are we on this island immune to the Delta variant? 
Harder to get into Ireland than into this country, and they're yet to open up to the same level we have here. Isolation at a nominated, by yourself, address. Given on the passenger location form. Assuming you provided the negative test result, maximum 72 hours before entry.

And they're not looking at lifting all restrictions like we are.


----------



## mjr (13 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Night club = inside, poor ventilation
> Fanzones and stadia = outside and ventilated
> Far, far less risk.


Oh, have they changed the stadia so you no longer have to walk through the enclosed concessions areas underneath to get from entrance to seating?


----------



## mjr (13 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> . I can think of a few of my favourite pubs in Cambridge which has a small or no outdoor space.


And those pubs should be given outdoor space. Very few are impossible, if there was the will.


----------



## Unkraut (14 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> As we have discussed ad nauseam before, New Zealand is a remote, low population density set of islands and the short time since european colonisation (towns/cities) /and recent tight immigration policy has prevented cramped urban areas. ...
> Well done to them - their government was not required to make difficult decisions.


My sister-in-law and husband emigrated to NZ about 16 years ago. My wife visited her at the very beginning of the pandemic when we thought it would not be a risk to go there. My wife only just managed to get out on the last plane out arranged by the German government, having been driven for 5 hours to get to the airport before midnight after which the country went into a rigid lockdown. 

They got on top of the spread only to have it re-imported by people from Britain!

Whilst I agree with you you cannot necessarily compare a relatively small country with larger European ones, I don't think the NZ govt was spared having to make difficult decisions. A the very least they didn't dither.


----------



## Pale Rider (14 Jul 2021)

I'm curious as to why Sunderland continues to have what must be among the highest infection rates in the country.

Currently on 950 per 1,000 population compared to a national average of 277.

Makes no sense to me - I doubt the population mix, density, and the way people interact is very different to other towns and cities.

The under 60's cases are rising much faster and are much higher than the over 60s.

Vaccine take up looks broadly in line with elsewhere.

Surprisingly, I haven't had Covid yet and I am double jabbed, but it appears to be only a matter of time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274


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## matticus (14 Jul 2021)

Unkraut said:


> Whilst I agree with you you cannot necessarily compare a relatively small country with larger European ones, I don't think the NZ govt ...


Correct, it is ridiculous to compare NZ with anywhere in Europe. Just look at a blimmin map! Look at their popn density, their travel patterns. 

We've been over this a dozen times, it's like Wackamole :P


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (14 Jul 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> I'm curious as to why Sunderland continues to have what must be among the highest infection rates in the country.
> 
> Currently on 950 per 1,000 population compared to a national average of 277.
> 
> ...


I suspect that it’s just a matter of a few weeks before all similar communities in England reach the same levels as those around Sunderland. As you say, there is nothing particularly unique about those currently with the highest levels.


----------



## RoadRider400 (14 Jul 2021)

FishFright said:


> Have you not noticed how NZ's infection rate is tiny because they have a functioning government. They had no need to put it all on black and hope.



Nothing to do with having a population ten times smaller than the UK then?


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2021)

RoadRider400 said:


> Nothing to do with having a population ten times smaller than the UK then?


Probably not, unless you have identified a link between total population and infection rate.

The other objections to comparison, such as location, are stronger.

It is interesting that both NZ and Australia are being criticised by their population for slow vaccination... but this criticism of the UK plan also appeared in NZ press this week: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/uks-awful-experiment-will-threaten-nz

EDIT: and Sydney is struggling to bring a delta outbreak under control with only a UK-style lockdown: https://www.thejournal.ie/sydney-lockdown-extended-two-weeks-5494870-Jul2021/


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## Edwardoka (14 Jul 2021)

You're right, it's unfair to compare NZ to the UK, since the UK is a fairly densely populated island nation on the edge of a developed and similarly densely populated continent.

Hmm, weird, it says here that Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea all exist. Curious. Must be a typo, surely.


----------



## PK99 (14 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> You're right, it's unfair to compare NZ to the UK, since the UK is a fairly densely populated island nation on the edge of a developed and similarly densely populated continent.
> 
> Hmm, weird, it says here that Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea all exist. Curious. Must be a typo, surely.



Does it also say they are authoritarian, surveillance states where rule is by decree and dictat and opposition not welcome?


----------



## matticus (14 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> You're right, it's unfair to compare NZ to the UK, since the UK is a fairly densely populated island nation on the edge of a developed and similarly densely populated continent.
> 
> Hmm, weird, it says here that Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea all exist. Curious. Must be a typo, surely.


They are spelled very different to NZ, so yeah, I think they are different countries.


----------



## Edwardoka (14 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> Does it also say they are authoritarian, surveillance states where rule is by decree and dictat and opposition not welcome?


I dunno, are we still talking about the UK?


----------



## matticus (14 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> I dunno, are we still talking about the UK?


Is this still the COVID thread? Or are we back to general slagging off UK Gov? Nothing wrong with the latter, but there are plenty of other threads for it, where you can also point out all the superior governments you want!


----------



## Edwardoka (14 Jul 2021)

matticus said:


> Is this still the COVID thread? Or are we back to general slagging off UK Gov? Nothing wrong with the latter, but there are plenty of other threads for it, where you can also point out all the superior governments you want!


The subthread I jumped into is about comparing covid performance of nations of similar geographical context, population density and size, and how you can't compare NZ to the UK, but as soon as I mention other nations of similar geographical context, population density, and size- woah what's that over there?

We are the worst performing island nation in the world by any given metric, and _it isn't even close. _Our next nearest competitor is Indonesia, a developing country with a population 4 times that of the UK.


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## matticus (14 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> The subthread I jumped into is about comparing covid performance of nations of similar geographical context


What, you mean like New Zealand?!? 

Seems like a sub-thread to bang-on about how much better other nations are; when the flaws in comparison are pointed out, we get
"Well OK ... but _whatabout _... "
Transparent. To say the least.


----------



## matticus (14 Jul 2021)

I just don't care about these comparisons - let's look at what we can/did do right/wrong. Stuff the foreigners!!!


----------



## Edwardoka (14 Jul 2021)

matticus said:


> What, you mean like New Zealand?!?
> 
> Seems like a sub-thread to bang-on about how much better other nations are; when the flaws in comparison are pointed out, we get
> "Well OK ... but _whatabout _... "
> Transparent. To say the least.





matticus said:


> I just don't care about these comparisons - let's look at what we can/did do right/wrong. Stuff the foreigners!!!


Comparison is not only useful but necessary in all walks of life. If you don't have a metric against which you can measure performance, you have no way to make claims about the effectiveness of any given measures.

Re-inventing the wheel is usually counterproductive and redundant in most walks of life, when it's a public health emergency it's downright scandalous.

It is sometimes necessary to think outside of the box to address new problems, but the UK government's approach since it became clear that covid was on its way has consistently been to alternate between being out of its box and sticking its head in the sand.

The *only* thing the government has gotten right is the vaccination drive, and all that hard work will be for naught if a vaccine-resistant strain arises here because we're leaping two-footedly back into it while almost half the population hasn't been fully vaccinated.


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> Does it also say they are authoritarian, surveillance states where rule is by decree and dictat and opposition not welcome?


Is South Korea an authoritarian surveillance state? A country which ranks higher than the UK on the Press Freedom Index and in the same category ("full democracy") on the Democracy Index?


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## matticus (14 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> Comparison is not only useful but* necessary in all walks of life*. If you don't have a metric against which you can measure performance, you have no way to make claims about the effectiveness of any given measures.


It's not a race. We're not competing for citizens' business. I don't see how yard-sticks are particularly useful in public health.

*" necessary in all walks of life "* I don't think so. You must have a stressful existence, always comparing yourself, or your family ...


----------



## Edwardoka (14 Jul 2021)

matticus said:


> It's not a race. We're not competing for citizens' business. I don't see how yard-sticks are particularly useful in public health.
> 
> *" necessary in all walks of life "* I don't think so. You must have a stressful existence, always comparing yourself, or your family ...


I didn't say that you need to compare yourself against other people. If I were to do that I'd probably just jump out the window.

Epidemiology is about statistics and probabilities at a population level, and it's almost entirely driven by data.
When you're involved in anything like that, you need to be gathering as much data as possible. And if you want to take measures to improve the situation, you need to have a baseline against which you can compare, otherwise how do you know how effective your measures are, or even what improvement looks like?

We can tell that the vaccine is having an effect on slowing the conversion of infections to hospital cases because we have two previous waves to compare against. There's also 190-odd other countries that are collecting this data and generally publishing the measures that they are taking.

Pretending that we're somehow different and that the data from other countries doesn't apply to us is full-blown exceptionalism.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (14 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> I didn't say that you need to compare yourself against other people. If I were to do that I'd probably just jump out the window.
> 
> Epidemiology is about statistics and probabilities at a population level, and it's almost entirely driven by data.
> When you're involved in anything like that, you need to be gathering as much data as possible. And if you want to take measures to improve the situation, you need to have a baseline against which you can compare, otherwise how do you know how effective your measures are, or even what improvement looks like?
> ...



The problem with comparing Nation State to Nation State is that each is uniquely composited by very wide set of variables and thus any comparism is rendered void, imo.


----------



## mjr (14 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> Pretending that we're somehow different and that the data from other countries doesn't apply to us is full-blown exceptionalism.


We can learn from their mistakes. Such as the Netherlands, where they released all restrictions before all willing adults had been fully vaccinated and then suffered a surge in cases, setting new records, ending with PM Rutte apologising for going too far too fast as he reintroduced restrictions, on the same day Boris announced England's surrender.

Now, why do people expect the UK to be much different?


----------



## newfhouse (14 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> The problem with comparing Nation State to Nation State is that each is uniquely composited by very wide set of variables and thus any comparism is rendered void, imo.


Surely no island is an island?


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## mjr (14 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> The problem with comparing Nation State to Nation State is that each is uniquely composited by very wide set of variables and thus any comparism is rendered void, imo.


It is possible to do things like Principal Component Analysis to try to draw out those variables and identify the contributions of the components of interest (probably health regulations is a key one), although with stuff like politics and social attitudes, it's not as exact as if you were observing physical actions. It's worth doing, but I'm not sure who is trying to do it and I've definitely not seen much about it in the UK media.


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## PK99 (14 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Is South Korea an authoritarian surveillance state?



Simple answer: Yes

Sample references:

*This from 2015:*

_A new South Korean law embeds a surveillance tool on teenagers’ phones – just another example of the country’s paternalistic attitudes, reports Steven Borowiec_
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0306422015605708

and

*this from jan 2021*

*Behind South Korea’s Success in Containing Covid-19: Surveillance Technology Infrastructures*
_In the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic, South Korea was often hailed for its success in taming the spread of the virus through the use of ICT technologies that facilitated rapid tracing and notification of those who had encountered individuals who had tested positive. In this essay for the “Covid-19 and the Social Sciences” series, Myungji Yang traces the development of disease prevention infrastructures in South Korea following lessons learned from experiences with earlier epidemics, showing how changes in both technology and law played important roles in its strategy. Yang also raises questions about the impact of the intrusive surveillance systems on individual privacy and freedom of movement.
by Myungji YangJanuary 21, 2021 

In addition to the country’s government capability, I emphasize the role of deeply-penetrated surveillance infrastructures that enabled health authorities to trace those who were in contact with the virus immediately. However, these surveillance practices have also raised critical concerns about political governance and democratic practices._

https://items.ssrc.org/covid-19-and...d-19-surveillance-technology-infrastructures/

*this from April 2020*

_Take, for example, Korea’s COVID-19 patient #10422. Before being diagnosed, patient #10422 visited the Hanaro supermarket in Yangjae township on March 23 from 11:32 p.m. to 12:30 a.m. The patient was accompanied by their spouse, both wearing masks and using their own car for transportation. On March 27, the pair visited the Yangjae flower market from 4:52 p.m. to 5:18 p.m., again wearing masks. They then had dinner at the Brooklyn The Burger Joint at Shinsegae Centum Mall from 6:42 p.m. to 7:10 p.m. This detailed record can be found, publicly available, on many government websites, and is a testament to the extensive contact tracing carried out by Korean authorities.

But how exactly is this information compiled? There are essentially three sources: electronic transaction data, mobile phone location logs, and surveillance camera footage.
Even before the COVID-19 outbreak, the Korean government collected massive amounts of transaction data for investigating tax fraud. Literally every credit card and bank transaction in Korea is recorded on government databases._


https://www.brookings.edu/techstrea...ology-powered-south-koreas-covid-19-response/


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## presta (14 Jul 2021)

It's interesting to read the first couple of pages of this thread.


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## Bazzer (14 Jul 2021)

Last week on a Teams meeting, my boss told us the word from the top was that if as expected, Bojo eased restrictions, then from the 19th, it was back to work as normal. By this morning there is some backtracking and now it is expected to be the second week of September.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Covid world, at the primary school where my eldest daughter is deputy head, today there were 23 staff off through Covid. And a short time ago, Mrs B and I were told the secondary school we attend for pilates, but other groups attend for running, yoga, football clubs etc., in after school hours, cannot allow clubs for the rest of this week or next. - Staff shortages.


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## matticus (15 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> We can tell that the vaccine is having an effect on slowing the conversion of infections to hospital cases because *we *have *two previous waves to compare against.* There's also 190-odd other countries that are collecting this data and generally publishing the measures that they are taking.


Now *that *makes sense; stick to one population, change one thing (jabs) and look at what happens. Perfectly sensible science.

But changing tactics based on data from other countries ... well that's just guesswork. It might be one useful tool amongst many, but it can't be the cornerstone of your strategy or analysis.


----------



## DCLane (15 Jul 2021)

Wandering through Dewsbury this afternoon whilst son no. 2 was in the gym I needed to go into a couple of shops.

They were both busy, a good thing, but in both hardly anyone was wearing a face covering - including the woman standing too close behind me and coughing. It's a very small sample, but have people heard the 19th July announcement and given up already?


----------



## Buck (15 Jul 2021)

DCLane said:


> Wandering through Dewsbury this afternoon whilst son no. 2 was in the gym I needed to go into a couple of shops.
> 
> They were both busy, a good thing, but in both hardly anyone was wearing a face covering - including the woman standing too close behind me and coughing. It's a very small sample, but have people heard the 19th July announcement and given up already?



I think some have already - a bit like the change in speed limit where people start gunning the accelerator as soon as they see the national speed limit sign and well before they are out of the 30 zone!

Her's an update from mask wearing in healthcare settings that has just been released
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/07/...o-wear-face-coverings-in-healthcare-settings/


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## potsy (15 Jul 2021)

I've certainly noticed a decrease in mask wearing at my local supermarket, was expecting it. 

I am planning to carry on wearing mine even if it's not compulsory, certainly for the time being at least.


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## Bazzer (15 Jul 2021)

It looks like the bar where daughter 2 works at weekends, is going to be closed this weekend, due to the number of staff who have been pinged by the C19 app. TBH that doesn't surprise me. From what my daughter has said, since it reopened, enforcement of mask wearing when required was zero.


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## Ajax Bay (15 Jul 2021)

I wonder if there's some merit it in the H&S people 'using' T&T to close down premises which fail to adhere to the law and good practice (or at least threaten so to do). Trouble is it would damage T&T's reputation.


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## PeteXXX (15 Jul 2021)

I was in Tesco, Northampton, this afternoon and the two security staff on the doors were telling customers to put their masks on before entry. 

Many seemed to be not bothering until they were reminded.


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## cambsno (15 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> And those pubs should be given outdoor space. Very few are impossible, if there was the will.



Its not about the will, its about practicality. My favourite pub for example, tables on pavement would prevent access for wheelchairs or buggies, so its either close pavements or road. Another good pub - could get some tables outside but probably 1/5 of indoor capacity. 

I have been round enough pubs in my time to know that a lot would not be able to do this unless roads or pavements were closed.

And thats before we talk about the weather - who will sit there when it rains? Will people really sit there when 5c in winter?


----------



## Ajax Bay (15 Jul 2021)

Prediction: the UK will reach effective herd immunity before it goes below 5 degrees C before closing time in Cambridge.


----------



## stowie (15 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> Its not about the will, its about practicality. My favourite pub for example, tables on pavement would prevent access for wheelchairs or buggies, so its either close pavements or road. Another good pub - could get some tables outside but probably 1/5 of indoor capacity.



I would argue the word practicality is a euphemism for priorities and politics.

We are all probably cyclists even on this forum, so I don't need to go on about the hegemony of motorised vehicles in our public spaces and the strength of resistance to changing this. Even when the need for better outdoor public spaces is widely agreed, I notice that quite often the discussion centres around re-purposing existing pavements with any discussion on the generally vast space of tarmac dedicated almost exclusively to motors being framed within the confines of "traffic flow".


----------



## PK99 (16 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> And I feel Boris did have a choice. They can wibble about the weather meaning September unlocking would be worse*, but that's because they've pretty much completely failed to encourage three-season outdoor hospitality. *England has seen very few of the encouragements and legal easements for outdoor eating and drinking that neighbouring countries have done. In fact, England has actually gone the other way, with local council covid inspectors requiring some outdoor tables to be removed from existing terraces/gardens and two sides of windbreaks to be removed at all times! This is not impossible to change, but it appears the decision is it's easier to abandon thousands more to death than to change our streets.


*Times Today:*

_Outdoor café culture is set to become a permanent fixture of Britain’s streets under plans to give bars, restaurants and coffee shops the right to offer al-fresco service.

*The rules were first relaxed last year to make it easier for businesses to serve customers outside when indoor Covid restrictions were in place. Now ministers say that they want the changes to be permanent to reinvigorate town centres. . .*

Government sources said that allowing cafés, bars and restaurants to spill out into the street* had proved popular with businesses and the public. They added that previous restrictions had needed a licence from local authorities and were overly restrictive and costly: “You’ve always had an outdoor café culture on the Continent but much less so in this country. *It seems sensible that the changes we made as a necessity during Covid should be made permanent.” . . . *_

*(link)
*All pubs and cafés in England will be allowed to sell outdoor drinks*
_Ministers want to change licencing laws to encourage more people to drink outside, where the chances of spreading coronavirus are significantly reduced.
Many pubs already have licences that enable them to sell alcohol for people to consume off their premises but they are less common for restaurants and cafés.
The government will also drop the 28-day consultation period for cafés, bars and restaurants setting up seating outside.
It comes as a swathe of central London is to be transformed into a continental-style outdoor dining area.
Westminster council is preparing 50 projects to make space for alfresco dining by widening pavements and closing roads for part of the day._


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## mjr (16 Jul 2021)

cambsno said:


> Its not about the will, its about practicality. My favourite pub for example, tables on pavement would prevent access for wheelchairs or buggies, so its either close pavements or road.


Then close the road, or more likely take convert some parking spaces into seating. I've absolutely no problems with that. I would have opened up so-called "pavement licences" to allow seating on roads outside ped zones (with appropriate barriers between seats and traffic, and 20mph speed limits) and I don't understand why this government still seems to be resisting that.



> And thats before we talk about the weather - who will sit there when it rains? Will people really sit there when 5c in winter?


We aren't made of sugar, plus we have umbrellas (over tables, or personal and I know I wasn't the only person to buy a new large golf umbrella last year because two shops had sold out before I found one) and many people have warm coats from various times over the last year where we could only meet outdoors.

And this would be part of an attempt to get this thing in retreat before winter, rather than having this wave become a tsunami that sees us back in another late, long lockdown from September, as Chris Whitty is now warning is possible, presumably in an attempt to stop people going too mad next week after surrender day.



PK99 said:


> *Times Today:* [...]
> 
> *The rules were first relaxed last year to make it easier for businesses to serve customers outside when indoor Covid restrictions were in place. Now ministers say that they want the changes to be permanent to reinvigorate town centres. . .*


So sadly this is only "changes to be permanent" rather than expanding them to help level up more suburbs and unpedestrianised town centres.

In other words, if you've not seen pavement seating outside your local pubs/cafes/restaurants under current rules, like most of the country, this won't enable it.



> Westminster council is preparing 50 projects to make space for alfresco dining by widening pavements and closing roads for part of the day.[/I]


Is that reporting from a literal Westminster bubble?


----------



## mjr (16 Jul 2021)

"Staff shortages threatening production of goods" says https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/nissan-government-england-nhs-wales-b946105.html

It headlines on the half-million told to isolate by the NHS Covid app but I heard on this morning's news that about another million have been told by Track and Trace or schools, meaning a total of 1.6m have been told to isolate in the last week.

I think it's disappointing that the SMMT Chief Exec in the report is calling for the app to be made less sensitive or quarantine to be reduced, rather than for the government to retain some non-pharma interventions (face coverings on commuter transport and in essential shops, for example) to get a grip on soaring case numbers, but... motoring lobbyists, eh?


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## matticus (16 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Then close the road, or more likely take convert some parking spaces into seating. I've absolutely no problems with that. I would have opened up so-called "pavement licences" to allow seating on roads outside ped zones (with appropriate barriers between seats and traffic, and 20mph speed limits) and I don't understand why this government still seems to be resisting that.


Yup, entirely practical. A few town/cities have done it - pictures from Soho over the summer come to mind, I believe there were others, some even in the Frozen North.

The Scandi countries have pavement cafe culture all year round - admittedly not as much as on the Med - so most British cities must be capable of it, even in our grimmer months


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## PaulB (16 Jul 2021)

Lifting the restrictions on Monday is going to cost us all and it's going to be a VERY big cost.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say


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## Johnno260 (16 Jul 2021)

PaulB said:


> Lifting the restrictions on Monday is going to cost us all and it's going to be a VERY big cost.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say



Yup an the anti brigade are planning marches everywhere to make the situation worse due to lack of brain cells so expect to see another spike 2-3 weeks after the 19th.


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## PaulB (16 Jul 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> Yup an the anti brigade are planning marches everywhere to make the situation worse due to lack of brain cells so expect to see another spike 2-3 weeks after the 19th.


We're already seeing a large spike in - coincidence of coincidences - young Englishmen who just happen to have attended a football match or two, or been in a crowd of other young men watching a football match in an enclosed area, in recent weeks.


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## fossyant (16 Jul 2021)

Thing is, you can't keep going on locked down - nearly 18 months of it. The majority of folk vulnerable are vaccinated. I won't, however, be off to the nightclub on Monday, nor will I be getting in a flying tin for some time. Im not about to hug everyone in the supemarket also.

Plenty of folk booked on their flying tins. Just out of immediate people, I know 4 families about to jet off, one my sister and also my SIL - both to yellow countries.


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## fossyant (16 Jul 2021)

PaulB said:


> We're already seeing a large spike in - coincidence of coincidences - young Englishmen who just happen to have attended a football match or two, or been in a crowd of other young men watching a football match in an enclosed area, in recent weeks.



Massive increases due to the Euros. Add in the pubs and fan zones, and city centres.


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## mjr (16 Jul 2021)

fossyant said:


> Thing is, you can't keep going on locked down - nearly 18 months of it.


Not been locked down for months now. We will be again soon if government and its supporters don't stop mucking about.

The euros are an example of mucking about. In theory, fan zones were set up covid safe. In practice, doors/windows were shut, ventilation units switched off, viewers mixed and hugged and no one doing a damned thing that I could see to enforce safety measures, with many enforcement officers unwilling to work overtime because they wanted to watch too and I bet government was unwilling or unable to pay double or treble time to attract them. Stadiums have been discussed already here and in other threads, with gatecrashers and test-fakers adding to the complications.

63 deaths reported yesterday (headline figure). I think announcing 100 as a possible peak value for after surrender day was very very optimistic.


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## roubaixtuesday (16 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> I think announcing 100 as a possible peak value for after surrender day was very very optimistic.



Average daily deaths for last 7 days is near 40.

Deaths follow cases and hospitalizations, both of which continue to double ~fortnightly 

Deaths are near guaranteed to at least double from current levels.


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## matticus (16 Jul 2021)

The fact that you're saying the Euros weren't run according to current restrictions suggest we ARE still under SOME kind of "Lockdown"


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## roubaixtuesday (16 Jul 2021)

matticus said:


> The fact that you're saying the Euros weren't run according to current restrictions suggest we ARE still under SOME kind of "Lockdown"



"A flesh wound" and "loss of a limb" are not synonymous. 

Similarly, "Lockdown" and "some restrictions" are not synonymous. 


View: https://youtu.be/UijhbHvxWrA


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## matticus (16 Jul 2021)

Call that a lockdown?


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3BUrtNeh3k


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## PK99 (16 Jul 2021)

Visited Chartwell yesterday and came across this quote from Churchill, it seems particularly apposite:

_You have to run risks. There are no certainties in war. 
There is a precipice on either side of you - a precipice of caution and a precipice of over-daring._

Winston Churchill


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## newfhouse (16 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> Visited Chartwell yesterday and came across this quote from Churchill, it seems particularly apposite:
> 
> _You have to run risks. There are no certainties in war.
> There is a precipice on either side of you - a precipice of caution and a precipice of over-daring._
> ...


Is COVID an enemy we can dissuade from attacking by demonstrations of resolve or bravery?


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## Edwardoka (16 Jul 2021)

newfhouse said:


> Is COVID an enemy we can dissuade from attacking by demonstrations of resolve or bravery?


An excellent question, maybe if we nuke covid it will dissuade other coronaviruses


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## mjr (16 Jul 2021)

matticus said:


> The fact that you're saying the Euros weren't run according to current restrictions suggest we ARE still under SOME kind of "Lockdown"


Current restrictions, or indeed common sense during a pandemic... in one way, it didn't really matter whether there were legal restrictions or not because no-one seemed to be enforcing them. If there were no regulations but the events had been run cleanly, I'm sure everyone would be happy with that, but it seems we can't just trust people to do that.


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## mjr (16 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> Visited Chartwell yesterday and came across this quote from Churchill, it seems particularly apposite:
> 
> _You have to run risks. There are no certainties in war.
> There is a precipice on either side of you - a precipice of caution and a precipice of over-daring._
> ...


I seem to remember the old aristo had a few words to say about surrendering, too!


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## PK99 (16 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> I seem to remember the old aristo had a few words to say about surrendering, too!



What a shame that you immediately resort to ad hominem and shy away from considering the point.

C'est le vie!


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## Edwardoka (16 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> What a shame that you immediately resort to ad hominem and shy away from considering the point.
> 
> C'est le vie!


Er. I don't think ad hominem means what you think it means.

I believe @mjr was alluding to Churchill's rousing statement as part of the "We shall fight them on the beaches" etc which includes the phrase "we shall never surrender".

I don't think you can justify getting huffy when someone points out that Churchill's words about war can also be used against your argument.

IMO, abandoning all restrictions and letting covid run rampant while 48% of the populace isn't fully vaccinated is a explicit acknowledgement that there is no way to defeat covid so you may as well let it do whatever it will.
In a war context, when one side accepts that they're powerless to stop the other, this is known as surrender.


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## PK99 (16 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> *Er. I don't think ad hominem means what you think it means.*
> 
> I believe @mjr was alluding to Churchill's rousing statement as part of the "We shall fight them on the beaches" etc which includes the phrase "we shall never surrender".
> 
> ...



*Ad hominem*: attacks the characteristics or authority of the writer without addressing the substance of the argument

_"I seem to remember the old aristo had a few words to say about surrendering, too!"_

Is straight down the line ad hominem, which is not, as some think, limited to direct personal attack.


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## Edwardoka (16 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> *Ad hominem*: attacks the characteristics or authority of the writer without addressing the substance of the argument
> 
> _"I seem to remember the old aristo had a few words to say about surrendering, too!"_
> 
> Is straight down the line ad hominem, which is not, as some think, limited to direct personal attack.


If the substance of the argument was that Churchill had things to say about war that seemed apposite, then @mjr not only acknowledged, but agreed with the sentiment.

If the writer referred to in your definition is you, they didn't attack your characteristics or authority. At all.

Presumably the bit you think that constitutes an attack is "the old aristo", and if the context in which this phrase was an attempt to deflect Churchill's words because of his characteristics. e.g. "who cares what he said, he was an old aristo" you'd be right.

Unfortunately, it wasn't, and, well...


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## Pale Rider (17 Jul 2021)

Sunderland continues to hold its unwanted position as virus central.

Rate per 100,000 is now 987, although I detect a small slowing down in the rate of increase.

On t'other hand, the BBC may have to redraw the scale on its graph for the under 60s.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274


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## Ajax Bay (17 Jul 2021)

Latest 7-day average cases (UK) = 39.7kpd on 13 Jul. Corresponding day in Dec/Jan wave was Boxing Day (@38.9k).
9 days (case test positive to hospital admission delay) after that, number of admissions was 3974 (7-day average on 5 Jan).
Projecting current rate of increase on hospital admissions we can estimate 864 admissions (7-day average) on 22 Jul (9 days after 13 Jul: see first statement.)
Suggests a hospitalisation rate of about a fifth compared to that in January.
Bed occupancy lags 10 days behind admissions and in the Dec/Jan wave was roughly/rule of thumb 9 times admissions (of ten days earlier).
On 15 Jul there were about 4000 in 'COVID' beds in UK hospitals (note about 500 admissions ten days earlier).
I can see no obvious mechanism for case rates to stop rising until the effects of approaching herd immunity (by a combo of vaccination and prior infection) mean the susceptible population is reduced and thus transmission (effective R number) drops to 1 or below: the effect will be heterogeneous (urban/rural and N/S).
The current rate implies a million new cases every 20 days (might we assume a fifth of those will be already vaccinated?).
There must be a community case to extend the vaccination offer to 16 and 17 year olds: is a JCVI pronouncement expected imminently?
These teenagers will likely catch it (eventually) if they aren't vaccinated, and whilst very very few will end up in hospital (remember all those who are vulnerable or have UHC will already have been vaccinated (if medically safe so to do)), long-COVID seems an unattractive possibility which surely they'd like to mitigate the risk of (by getting vaccinated).


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## PK99 (17 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Suggests a hospitalisation rate of about a fifth compared to that in January.



Maybe one for the medics to answer - but given that hospitals are now not overstretched in the way they were and people had to be very ill before being admitted, is it the case now that less ill people are being admitted.


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## DaveReading (17 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> is it the case now that less ill people are being admitted.



I suspect the answer may be different, depending on whether you mean "fewer ill people are being admitted" or "people who are less ill are being admitted".


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## Ajax Bay (17 Jul 2021)

To be clear, I used the phrase 'hospitalisation rate' to describe the fraction of daily hospital admissions divided by daily recorded cases 9 days earlier: in other words what fraction of cases (positive PCR) result in serious (hospitalisation) illness.
The 95% most vulnerable (JCVI Gps 1-9) have all (95+% uptake) received full vaccination giving them a a 95% protection against 'serious illness' (NB all figures with a tight confidence interval). One might actually hope/expect the hospitalisation rate to be less (15% rather than 20%).
It seems plausible @PK99 that there will be a slightly lower threshold for hospital admission (as Dave's second option) when COVID bed occupancy is a low percentage of total beds, but I'm not a medic (@Buck ?).


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## deptfordmarmoset (17 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Bed occupancy lags 10 days behind admissions...


You're obviously not suggesting that patients are just sitting waiting in corridors for a week and a half so, when you write ''admissions,'' do you mean contracting covid?


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## PK99 (17 Jul 2021)

DaveReading said:


> I suspect the answer may be different, depending on whether you mean "fewer ill people are being admitted" or "people who are less ill are being admitted".



To clarify:

I was pondering whether the "severity of illness threshold" for hospital admission is now lower than at earlier stages of the pandemic when beds were in short supply.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Jul 2021)

Meanwhile, double-jabbed Javid has tested positive and, with mild symptoms, he's self-isolating. I wonder whether this will bring about a greater readiness on his part to treat covid as an illness rather than an economic inconvenience.


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## Ajax Bay (17 Jul 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> You're obviously not suggesting that patients are just sitting waiting in corridors for a week and a half so, when you write ''admissions,'' do you mean contracting covid?


No: hospital admissions (patients admitted with positive COVID test and illness (not necessarily COVID symptoms)). These lag ten days behind peak bed occupancy (eg 9 Jan to 19 Jan).
Peak cases (by specimen date): 1 Jan - 61,238
Peak admissions: 9 Jan - 4233
Peak occupancy: 19 Jan - 38,434
All figures UK and 7-day averages.
[Latest available figures (to demonstrate current ratios): 16,108; 412; 3,409;]
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare


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## Buck (17 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> To be clear, I used the phrase 'hospitalisation rate' to describe the fraction of hospital admissions divided by recorded cases 9 days earlier: in other words what fraction of cases (positive PCR) result in serious (hospitalisation) illness.
> The 95% most vulnerable (JCVI Gps 1-9) have all (95+% uptake) received full vaccination giving them a a 95% protection against 'serious illness' (NB all figures with a tight confidence interval). One might actually hope/expect the hospitalisation rate to be less (15% rather than 20%).
> It seems plausible @PK99 that there will be a slightly lower threshold for hospital admission (as Dave's second option) when COVID bed occupancy is a low percentage of total beds, but I'm not a medic (@Buck ?).



Me neither.

I had heard locally that those in hospital _are_ seriously ill so certainly not a suggestion there that the threshold is lower.

Despite age being on their side, there are a significant number of younger people becoming seriously unwell, of which many have not been vaccinated.


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## slowmotion (17 Jul 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Meanwhile, double-jabbed Javid has tested positive and, with mild symptoms, he's self-isolating. I wonder whether this will bring about a greater readiness on his part to treat covid as an illness rather than an economic inconvenience.


I'm not hopeful. The PM had it badly enough to be admitted to hospital but he seems hell-bent of using us all as guinea pigs in his forthcoming reckless experiment.


----------



## mjr (17 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> Presumably the bit you think that constitutes an attack is "the old aristo", and if the context in which this phrase was an attempt to deflect Churchill's words because of his characteristics. e.g. "who cares what he said, he was an old aristo" you'd be right.
> 
> Unfortunately, it wasn't, and, well...


But very artful in the way it was used to avoid contrasting "we shall never surrender" with bull shoot Boris's approach:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1416348713291853824


----------



## Ajax Bay (17 Jul 2021)

The post-peak reduction of daily cases in Scotland is looking like exponential decay. Reading the daily admissions rate with the lens of an optimist, are they not leveling out: its peak 10 days delayed from the daily cases peak?
Possible reasons:

Scotland is running out of susceptible people under current control measures (includes tens of thousands self-isolation) and schools finished 20 days ago - if so read that across to England shortly.
Dipping between a resumption of outbreak
Surges of infection in different centres, and the virus has failed to get its effect coordinated






https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases (above,Scotland only, peaked 30 Jun)




https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare (above - Scotland only, last data 13 Jul)


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> using us all as guinea pigs in his forthcoming reckless experiment.


Don't partake in said 'experiment' then, wear your mask, don't go near people who aren't wearing one, don't go anywhere you think is unsafe and you should be as safe on Monday as you are today. 

Simples.


----------



## Rocky (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Don't partake in said 'experiment' then, wear your mask, don't go near people who aren't wearing one, don't go anywhere you think is unsafe and you should be as safe on Monday as you are today.
> 
> Simples.


Oh and don’t get ill enough for hospital treatment and avoid having surgery…..because hospitals are grinding to a halt again.


----------



## slowmotion (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Don't partake in said 'experiment' then, wear your mask, don't go near people who aren't wearing one, don't go anywhere you think is unsafe and you should be as safe on Monday as you are today.
> 
> Simples.


All good stuff but it seems to miss the point that a sizeable chunk of the population will interpret Monday as a green light to exercise no caution at all and the general environment will almost certainly become a more hazardous place. Anyway, that's the message that the scientists seem to be sending out.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

Rocky said:


> Oh and don’t get ill enough for hospital treatment and avoid having surgery…..because hospitals are grinding to a halt again.


Well if you're careful you won't get ill will you?
Are they grinding to a halt? will you be able to provide proof to back up that statement ( in time honoured tradition on this forum) .

And if they are is it in the area this person lives in?

You know people like facts on here 😉


----------



## Rocky (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Well if you're careful you won't get ill will you?
> Are they grinding to a halt? will you be able to provide proof to back up that statement ( in time honoured tradition on this forum) .
> 
> And if they are is it in the area this person lives in?
> ...


If you are careful you won’t get ill…..so are you saying when my wife got breast cancer, she wasn’t being careful? (She has none of the risk factors)

Look up hospitals in Sunderland…..

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-57868803


----------



## DCLane (17 Jul 2021)

SWMBO's hours have been temporarily upped (again) in preparation for the next wave of patients into her now-reopening Covid ward.

She's still dealing with two wards full of Long Covid patients, hence the reason for needing more hours. She's gone from 0.5 to full-time, back to 0.7 and now 1.2 for a while. They're doing similar with other staff in preparation.


----------



## classic33 (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> *Well if you're careful you won't get ill will you?*
> Are they grinding to a halt? will you be able to provide proof to back up that statement ( in time honoured tradition on this forum) .
> 
> And if they are is it in the area this person lives in?
> ...


I can be as careful as ever, however there remains a chance that I'll end up in A&E due to circumstances beyond my control. The same as always, but with added measures in place at the hospitals, which means things take longer.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> All good stuff but it seems to miss the point that a sizeable chunk of the population will interpret Monday as a green light to exercise no caution at all and the general environment will almost certainly become a more hazardous place. Anyway, that's the message that the scientists seem to be sending out.


I'm sure certain situations will be but avoid them, can't see the panic myself. 

Certain venues will be opening which no-one is being forced to go to, instead of walking into a pub with a mask on and immediately taking if off you no longer have to wear one so not really protecting people that much in my opinion. 

If you're worried sit outside?

If your workplace is forcing you to be at risk from Monday then I can understand the concern but I would be surprised if there's many cases of that amongst the posters on here.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> I can be as careful as ever, however there remains a chance that I'll end up in A&E due to circumstances beyond my control. The same as always, but with added measures in place at the hospitals, which means things take longer.


You have to admit you seem to be quite extreme case from what I've read of your posts.


----------



## Buck (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Well if you're careful you won't get ill will you?
> Are they grinding to a halt? will you be able to provide proof to back up that statement ( in time honoured tradition on this forum) .
> 
> And if they are is it in the area this person lives in?
> ...


If you are careful and follow current guidance you will reduce your risk of catching the virus from someone else but you will not reduce your risk to zero.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

Buck said:


> If you are careful and follow current guidance you will reduce your risk of catching the virus from someone else but you will not reduce your risk to zero.


Didn't say you would, people seem to think come Monday all hell will break loose and we'll be dropping like flies, I'm simply pointing out that if you carry on doing what you already do then the risk isn't going to increase for you that much.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

Rocky said:


> If you are careful you won’t get ill…..so are you saying when my wife got breast cancer, she wasn’t being careful? (She has none of the risk factors)
> 
> Look up hospitals in Sunderland…..
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-57868803



We're talking about the increased risk of catching Covid from Monday due to restrictions being eased, what's that got to do with getting Cancer?

My lad was involved in a Motorcycle accident recently but I don't mention that in a Covid thread.


----------



## slowmotion (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I'm sure certain situations will be but avoid them, can't see the panic myself.
> 
> Certain venues will be opening which no-one is being forced to go to, instead of walking into a pub with a mask on and immediately taking if off you no longer have to wear one so not really protecting people that much in my opinion.
> 
> ...


Well, the statistics in about a month will let us know one way or another. Is William Hill giving odds?


----------



## classic33 (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> You have to admit you seem to be quite extreme case from what I've read of your posts.


Born with epilepsy, treatment for that has to come first.
Over the last two years, if I manage to get through a week with only five fits/seizures/episodes/call them what you want a week*, it's a good week in my book.


*Grand Mal.


----------



## Buck (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> *Didn't say you would*, people seem to think come Monday all hell will break loose and we'll be dropping like flies, I'm simply pointing out that if you carry on doing what you already do then the risk isn't going to increase for you that much.




…but you did which is why I responded as i did. 



shep said:


> *Well if you're careful you won't get ill will you?*
> 
> You know people like facts on here 😉


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> Well, the statistics in about a month will let us know one way or another. Is William Hill giving odds?


I'm sure the infection rate will go up as people mingle more but it's those people's right to choose to mingle, football grounds will be opening soon and I'll be going but if I was afraid of getting ill I wouldn't go.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> Born with epilepsy, treatment for that has to come first.
> Over the last two years, if I manage to get through a week with only five fits/seizures/episodes/call them what you want a week*, it's a good week in my book.
> 
> 
> *Grand Mal.


There you go then, extreme.


----------



## classic33 (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> There you go then, extreme.


Not in the least. Normal, everyday life.
I know plenty who are worse off than me.


----------



## slowmotion (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I'm sure the infection rate will go up as people mingle more but it's those people's right to choose to mingle, football grounds will be opening soon and I'll be going but if I was afraid of getting ill I wouldn't go.


I think the problem is that the minglers inevitably come across non-minglers and may pass on the infection.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

Buck said:


> …but you did which is why I responded as i did.


I responded to your statement of the risk being Zero, I didn't say you can reduce it to zero. 

What do you see will directly put you in more danger from Monday then?

I would imagine other people not wearing a mask in a place where you're forced to go is the only situation at a guess?


----------



## Rocky (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> We're talking about the increased risk of catching Covid from Monday due to restrictions being eased, what's that got to do with getting Cancer?
> 
> My lad was involved in a Motorcycle accident recently but I don't mention that in a Covid thread.


I’m just quoting back what you said


People behaving irresponsibility, spreading Covid, block hospitals beds and wards. People need those beds through not fault of their own because they get sick. Freedom day will cause more delays to essential services and essential operations. Sick people will suffer because others are irresponsible.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> Not in the least. Normal, everyday life.
> I know plenty who are worse off than me.


I must know lot's of lucky people then.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

Rocky said:


> I’m just quoting back what you said - so no I’m not taking the piss.
> 
> People behaving irresponsibility, spreading Covid, block hospitals beds and wards. People need those beds through not fault of their own because they get sick. Freedom day will cause more delays to essential services and essential operations. Sick people will suffer because others are irresponsible.


You know full well I was referring to getting I'll with Covid but you chose to drop Cancer in for the shock factor. 

How about all those beds taken up by people who have had accidents at work, on the roads or due to extreme sports, are they being irresponsible and depriving your missus of a bed?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> You know full well I was referring to getting I'll with Covid but you chose to drop Cancer in for the shock factor.
> 
> How about all those beds taken up by people who have had accidents at work, on the roads or due to extreme sports, are they being irresponsible and depriving your missus of a bed?


The more people mingle, the more the mangled minglers will take up NHS time, space and energy, leaving fewer resources for all others.


----------



## classic33 (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I must know lot's of lucky people then.


I'm unlucky then?

I tried to demonstrate that one persons normal is different to another persons normal. Makes defining "normal" hard though.


----------



## Rusty Nails (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> You know full well I was referring to getting I'll with Covid but you chose to drop Cancer in for the shock factor.
> 
> *How about all those beds taken up by people who have had accidents at work, on the roads or due to extreme sports, are they being irresponsible and depriving your missus of a bed?*



Is there an epidemic of any of those things causing an unusual run on hospital resources?

These are the practical and common things that hospital planners take into account when managing their ongoing resources. Covid is not like that, with no history to use as a base.


----------



## Ajax Bay (17 Jul 2021)

And if by magic, @Rusty Nails , here's something to help, maybe.
Reasons for hospital admissions: pre-COVID-19 (2003)





https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK63506/
NHS Digital (England) 2017:
"16.5M admissions were recorded in 2016-17. This is an increase of 27.5 per cent on 2006-07."
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-inf...spital-admitted-patient-care-activity/2016-17
In the year 14 Jul 2020 - 13 Jul 2021 the number of admissions where the patient had tested positive for COVID-19 within the last 28 days was 301k.
So COVID admissions are (at most) 1.8% of the admissions (and probably less as a proportion of the 300k would have been admitted because they were poorly, anyway: with COVID not because of COVID). However I don't know the average hospital stay length for the stats in 2017, but I guess they'll be less than half the average COVID-19 stay. So maybe 5% of beds (average) have been needed for patients who had tested positive within the last 28 days. The latest figure is 3,367 beds occupied (about 3% of beds in NHS England's hospitals).
I think this helps with perspective of the extent to which people who have caught COVID-19 are bed-blocking other vital health improvement measures, for example: diagnosis and treatment of life threatening illness, and elective surgery.


----------



## newfhouse (17 Jul 2021)

Isn’t it a bit more complicated than just counting beds? What about operations being cancelled because of concerns over infection, whole wards being used for COVID patients only, and so on?


----------



## Rusty Nails (17 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> And if by magic, @Rusty Nails , here's something to help, maybe.
> Reasons for hospital admissions: pre-COVID-19 (2003)
> View attachment 599593
> 
> ...


Interesting figures.

Are there specific figures for the number / % of Covid beds at peak periods?

Are there any figures for the numbers of patient-facing hospital staff losing work because of having hospital-caught covid or having to self-isolate because of contact at work.


----------



## Ajax Bay (17 Jul 2021)

Rusty Nails said:


> Are there specific figures for the number / % of Covid beds at peak periods?


In NHS England peak bed occupancy for patients who had tested positive within the last 28 days for COVID-19 was 34,336 on 18 Jan: just under 30% of total beds (NB 10 times as many as on 16 Jul.)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Can't help with the staff absence figures: perhaps you could have a search.
@newfhouse of course it's more complicated, but it takes little acuity to recognise that it's still a useful metric to illustrate perspective of NHS England's resource allocation.
I do not seek in any way to diminish the short/medium term adverse effect on our NHS staff, the medium/long term on keeping and recruiting patient-facing staff to work in the NHS, and the extraordinary adverse effect on our NHS's other healthcare activities.
Worth pointing out though, that if there's any time of year that we can get through the inevitable (as modelled in Feb) wave which must follow restrictions being lifted, *the summer months are 'best'*. That will have been a consideration back on 14 Jun when a revision to Phase 4's date was announced delaying it to 19 Jul. But we did not know enough about the Delta variant (transmissibility, % protection offered against it by vaccines) then: the level of uncertainty is now much less: hence Tests 3 and 4 are met.


----------



## classic33 (17 Jul 2021)

*10th july *
581 New Cases Of Covid-19 Confirmed Nationally in Ireland.

And a week later, *17th July *, where the numbers have been on the up.
1377 New Cases Of Covid-19 confirmed.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> I'm unlucky then?


Sounds pretty unlucky to me, but there you go.

Whether you class yourself as lucky, unlucky, average, normal, unusual or any other term is up to you. 

I think anybody who ends up in A&E due to taking an Aspirin or whatever it was is pretty unlucky in my book.


----------



## Ajax Bay (17 Jul 2021)

In Northern Ireland it was 1402 on 17 Jul, from 445 on 10 Jul [https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases]
Ourworldindata doesn't suggest that dramatic increase in Ireland's daily cases - it was 99.5 per 100,000 on 9 Jul (in these data).


----------



## midlife (17 Jul 2021)

Sort of goes like this... Husband of teacher at the school where my wife works likes football, goes to watch it at the pub and goes to Wembley. Tests positive, gives it to his wife who breaks school bubbles, gets other people at school within 48 hours close contact.... And it goes on and on.. 

Our hospital being coy but my surgical colleagues are facing cancellation of elective work to clear the decks.


----------



## classic33 (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Sounds pretty unlucky to me, but there you go.
> 
> Whether you class yourself as lucky, unlucky, average, normal, unusual or any other term is up to you.
> 
> I think anybody who ends up in A&E due to taking an Aspirin or whatever it was is pretty unlucky in my book.


I don't, and never have classed, myself as unusual due to epilepsy. Others do, along with weird, which is annoying.

The treatment for the epilepsy takes priority, painkillers are out.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

I think we all know it's not going away anytime soon so at what point in time or at what level of vaccination or any other measurable stage do people think restrictions should be lifted?
Just curious like?


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> I think the problem is that the minglers inevitably come across non-minglers and may pass on the infection.


Well, this is where the non minglers need to keep their precautions in place isn't it?

Masks, distancing, avoiding indoor areas etc.


----------



## classic33 (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Well, this is where the non minglers need to keep their precautions in place isn't it?
> 
> Masks, distancing, avoiding indoor areas etc.


Not always possible, and through no fault of the _"non minglers"_. Nearly always those who feel they can do what they want make it impossible.

Corrected
"who who feel" to "those who feel"
in edit.


----------



## slowmotion (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Well, this is where the non minglers need to keep their precautions in place isn't it?
> 
> Masks, distancing, avoiding indoor areas etc.


......as the minglers swan about at will, possibly infecting people?


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> ......as the minglers swan about at will, possibly infecting people?


Or follow the Government rules, whichever way you see it?

So, as already asked, when would you ease restrictions then?


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> Not always possible, and through no fault of the _"non minglers"_. Nearly always who who feel they can do what they want make it impossible.


Doing what they want within the rules?


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> ......as the minglers swan about at will, possibly infecting people?


Nothing's stopping you swanning about at will either, you just choose not to then judge people who think differently to you but are doing nothing that isn't allowed?


----------



## classic33 (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Doing what they want within the rules?


You mean like reaching past you in a supermarket when the restrictions said 2 metres?

If they were that bad when such restrictions were in place, what'll they be like when such restrictions are lifted?


----------



## slowmotion (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Nothing's stopping you swanning about at will either, you just choose not to then judge people who think differently to you but are doing nothing that isn't allowed?


" Just 'cos you can don't mean you should".


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> You mean like reaching past you in a supermarket when they said 2 metres?
> 
> If they were that bad when such restrictions were in place, what'll they be like when such restrictions are lifted?


They won't need to do anything will the?

Restrictions will be lifted?


----------



## Julia9054 (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Well, this is where the non minglers need to keep their precautions in place isn't it?
> 
> Masks, distancing, avoiding indoor areas etc.


Or keep regulations in place for situations where mingling is difficult to avoid - public transport, supermarkets etc
And remove then from situations it is easy to avoid - pubs, nightclubs, restaurants etc


----------



## slowmotion (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Or follow the Government rules, whichever way you see it?
> 
> So, as already asked, when would you ease restrictions then?


Some time when the infection rate isn't going through the roof seems a bit sensible to me. Anyway, I'm no expert. Why not listen to what the epidemiologists are saying right now?


----------



## Ajax Bay (17 Jul 2021)

Au contraire, @shep, old chap; cases will at least drop away (if not "go away") before the summer is over (autumn equinox). All the modelling says so.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...and_Sensitivity_Step_4.2__6_July_2021__1_.pdf (Published 6 Jul and considered by SAGE before they advised the Government on no earlier than 19 Jul (or not).)
If the population takes a fair time to adopt behaviours similar to pre-pandemic the modelling suggests that that will result in a lower peak to this wave, but interestingly, and counter-intuitively, that it will also result in a fourth wave in the winter (which would be excellent to avoid - suspect the epidemiologists would agree: rock and hard place).
The red/blue/green curves below (VE = vaccine effectiveness; default = best (as opposed to optimistic or cautious) estimate).





Note: The dashed black line shows the mean trajectory for the worst case assumption of immediate return to pre-
COVID mixing on 19 Jul.
Edit: Note 2: The areas under the purple line and the red line are similar (<20% different) so the number of cases/admissions/deaths (estimate/modelled) will be similar, but the red trajectory would result in far less stress on the NHS as its peaks are far lower (but the corollary is that the domestic threat from COVID-19 endures through to Easter).


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> " Just 'cos you can don't mean you should".


In YOUR opinion.


----------



## shep (17 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Au contraire, Shep, old chap; cases will at least drop away (if not "go away") before the summer is over (autumn equinox). All the modelling says so.
> https://assets.publishing.service.g...and_Sensitivity_Step_4.2__6_July_2021__1_.pdf (Published 6 Jul and considered by SAGE before they advised the Government on no earlier than 19 Jul (or not).)
> If the population takes a fair time to adopt behaviours similar to pre-pandemic the modelling suggests that that will result in a lower peak to this wave, but interestingly, and counter-intuitively, that it will also result in a fourth wave in the winter (which would be excellent to avoid - suspect the epidemiologists would agree: rock and hard place).
> The red/blue/green curves below (VE = vaccine effectiveness; default = best (as opposed to optimistic or cautious) estimate).
> ...


Even better then, just need to convince these lot!


----------



## slowmotion (17 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> In YOUR opinion.


Obviously. It's your choice, not mine.


----------



## Ajax Bay (18 Jul 2021)

We have passed *a significant milestone* that didn't get reported:
More people got immunity via a nasal rather than an intramuscular route *on 10 July*, and this continues.
[Assumption made (drawing on ONS antibody surveys for factor) that of those infected, only half (actually get a) test positive.]
The low rates of vaccination these last few weeks is remarkably unreported.


----------



## Unkraut (18 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I think we all know it's not going away anytime soon so at what point in time or at what level of vaccination or any other measurable stage do people think restrictions should be lifted?
> Just curious like?


I think that is a fair question. My answer would be you lift restrictions when you can be reasonably certain that an increase in infections will not overload the healthcare system. Whilst it is true that in countries with highish vaccination rates the most vulnerable are now protected against the worst you also have to take into account that some younger people will die and that some will develop long-term complications that might not have occurred if you had waited until a higher rate of vaccination had been achieved.

A reasonable compromise to me would be to ease restrictions on personal freedom e.g. to do and watch sport, but retain the hygiene rules of masks and distancing where people get close together indoors. These latter are hardly a deprivation of liberty and can be very effective in dampening down the rate of infection whilst vaccination continues.

It would also seem wise to have a published backup plan reintroducing lockdown measures as appropriate to a local area to be implemented if the rate of infection coupled with strain on the NHS reaches a critical point.


----------



## shep (18 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> Obviously. It's your choice, not mine.


It is but it's other people moaning about the choice that I'm making is the issue here. 

I'm choosing to follow the current rules yet some people are firing comments off like 'blocking hospital beds' or 'swanning around as they please' that gets up my nose.

Good luck to you.


----------



## Edwardoka (18 Jul 2021)

I don't understand why people are so annoyed about my choice to swing a baseball bat at head height in a crowded area
The government have said it's fine
Some of you may get cracked skulls but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make


----------



## Rocky (18 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> It is but it's other people moaning about the choice that I'm making is the issue here.
> 
> I'm choosing to follow the current rules yet some people are firing comments off like 'blocking hospital beds' or 'swanning around as they please' that gets up my nose.
> 
> Good luck to you.


Presumably the Health Foundation gets up your nose too……

https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-...coping-with-the-continuing-impact-of-covid-19


----------



## shep (18 Jul 2021)

You can put as many links up as you like, the rules are what I'll be following and come tomorrow so will a lot of other people so you need to get used to it.

Huffing and puffing and getting all self righteous will achieve nothing.


----------



## shep (18 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> I don't understand why people are so annoyed about my choice to swing a baseball bat at head height in a crowded area
> The government have said it's fine
> Some of you may get cracked skulls but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make


We've heard all the crap analogies already, from baseball bat swinging to getting pi**ed on in Asda!

Keep away from anywhere you think people are going to hit you with a bat or P**s on you!

From what you've said in the past you hardly mix and work from home so what extra risk will you be encountering from tomorrow may I ask?


----------



## KnittyNorah (18 Jul 2021)

I firmly believe there are certain restrictions which should never be removed, as long as C-19 is a danger to more than the most minute fraction of folk in our communities. One of those restrictions should, IMO, be masking - as 'normal' masking serves *not *to protect the wearer but to protect _others. Many _others.


----------



## mjr (18 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> You can put as many links up as you like, the rules are what I'll be following and come tomorrow so will a lot of other people so you need to get used to it.
> 
> Huffing and puffing and getting all self righteous will achieve nothing.


I really am confused about what you'll be doing. The government rules remain the same. The law (regulations) are being repealed. You are being trusted to follow the rules voluntarily but you've said both that you'll be binning your mask and that you'll be making no change whatsoever, which can't both be true if you were following the rules so far.


----------



## PaulB (18 Jul 2021)

Philip Pullman posted online this morning that the reason Doris is lifting restrictions tomorrow against all scientific evidence is to put such pressure on the NHS it collapses and who's that in the wings waiting to rush to the rescue?


----------



## shep (18 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> I really am confused about what you'll be doing. The government rules remain the same. The law (regulations) are being repealed. You are being trusted to follow the rules voluntarily but you've said both that you'll be binning your mask and that you'll be making no change whatsoever, which can't both be true if you were following the rules so far.


What don't you understand?

Unless I'm mistaken from tomorrow masks no longer need to be worn in most places, so I won't be, whereas today I would need to wear one?

Have I got this wrong then?

If I have then WTF is everyone moaning about?


----------



## markemark (18 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> What don't you understand?
> 
> Unless I'm mistaken from tomorrow masks no longer need to be worn in most places, so I won't be, whereas today I would need to wear one?
> 
> ...


They do need to be worn, just no legal requirement.

It depends if you think that a lack of a law means you have no obligation to do something. Theres no law to stop me pulling items out of a fellow shopper’s trolley, laughing in their face, farting and walking off. I won’t though. But no law to stop me.


----------



## Ajax Bay (18 Jul 2021)

PaulB said:


> who's that in the wings waiting to rush to the rescue?


Help us out here? Is Pullman a health management professional? Has he a (dark) material interest?
The government is taking many factors into account and all the modelling suggests, within reasonable levels of certainty, that our NHS will cope. (See my posts above and https://assets.publishing.service.g...and_Sensitivity_Step_4.2__6_July_2021__1_.pdf)


----------



## newfhouse (18 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> cope


All good then.


----------



## shep (18 Jul 2021)

markemark said:


> They do need to be worn, just no legal requirement.
> 
> It depends if you think that a lack of a law means you have no obligation to do something. Theres no law to stop me pulling items out of a fellow shopper’s trolley, laughing in their face, farting and walking off. I won’t though. But no law to stop me.


So if they NEED to be worn why has the legal requirement to wear them been removed?

Speaking to the gaffer of our local and from tomorrow table service stops, mask wearing stops, table limits stop and the one way system stops so whatever terminology you want to use restrictions are being removed. 

Luckily no-one on here will be going so not an issue for you.


----------



## shep (18 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> I really am confused about what you'll be doing. The government rules remain the same. The law (regulations) are being repealed. You are being trusted to follow the rules voluntarily but you've said both that you'll be binning your mask and that you'll be making no change whatsoever, which can't both be true if you were following the rules so far.


I know you love to split hairs, and I'm happy to play along, I will be following the LEGAL requirement (as I'm led to believe) and not wearing a mask from Tomorrow. 

I hope this addresses your confusion adequately 🥱


----------



## PaulB (18 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Help us out here?



Which way did you come in?


----------



## Ajax Bay (18 Jul 2021)

newfhouse said:


> All good then.


Test 3: Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS aka "cope"
See also my comments about the pressures on our NHS and its staff in posts above.


----------



## Milzy (18 Jul 2021)

Johnson seems as capable of sensible judgment as the England football fan who stuck a red flare up his behind.


----------



## Ajax Bay (18 Jul 2021)

Zoe 11 Jul (for vaccinated v unvaccinated infection incidence)





There will be influences on this from the one dose/two dose proportion and the infection levels age cohorts with one or no jabs.


----------



## KnittyNorah (18 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I know you love to split hairs, and I'm happy to play along, I will be following the LEGAL requirement (as I'm led to believe) and not wearing a mask from Tomorrow.
> 
> I hope this addresses your confusion adequately 🥱



Thankfully there is *no* legal requirement to *not* wear a mask. The _legal_ requirement to wear one may have been removed, but that does not mean one should abdicate one's societal responsibility _to minimise _the spread of infection to others who may be more vulnerable than oneself, which is the purpose of wearing masks (in anything other than specialist situations).

However, there are clearly a great many people labouring under the mistaken belief that as of tomorrow they become physically unable to transmit the virus from their daft gobs or schnozzles, even to the most vulnerable of our citizens and even in the most cramped and crowded of environments. 

I don't care one iota (other than for the inevitable extra stress on medical staff) if or even how ill these idiots become. What I do object to is that - whatever the law might say - they are willingly abdicating their responsibility to wider society.


----------



## Unkraut (18 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> So if they NEED to be worn why has the legal requirement to wear them been removed?


Because the British govt is prepared to take a risk with the strain on the healthcare system that increased rates will not push it beyond what it can cope with. That's been the comment here. There is no assumption that the worst will happen, but a system already ailing due to chronic underfunding and now staffed by people exhausted from over a year of the strain of covid is bound not to cope as well as it might, especially with long-term consequences that a higher infection rate will bring.


shep said:


> Speaking to the gaffer of our local and from tomorrow table service stops, mask wearing stops, table limits stop and the one way system stops so whatever terminology you want to use restrictions are being removed.


The fact the legal requirement is being removed does not mean the basic hygiene measures are no longer needed. That is the point of contention. 

Under communism the collective is everything and the individual nothing. Under the current British administration (the looney right?) the individual is everything and the collective nothing. In a pandemic though you cannot ignore the collective under a banner of individual freedom and liberty as the virus will ignore this and damage the collective.


----------



## Julia9054 (18 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> So if they NEED to be worn why has the legal requirement to wear them been removed?


So the government can blame the people instead of their own p!ss poor mismanagement if it goes tits up over the next few months


----------



## Unkraut (18 Jul 2021)

markemark said:


> Theres no law to stop me pulling items out of a fellow shopper’s trolley, laughing in their face, farting and walking off.


Today in Parliament:

The Criminal Justice (Amendment) (Farting) Regulations 2021.


----------



## markemark (18 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> So if they NEED to be worn why has the legal requirement to wear them been removed?
> 
> Speaking to the gaffer of our local and from tomorrow table service stops, mask wearing stops, table limits stop and the one way system stops so whatever terminology you want to use restrictions are being removed.
> 
> Luckily no-one on here will be going so not an issue for you.


To pass the responsibility onto us so it’s no longer the government’s fault if it gets out of hand.


----------



## Adam4868 (18 Jul 2021)

They continually take this country for mugs...to be honest if you voted for them...

View: https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1416694536496091139?s=19


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (18 Jul 2021)

Adam4868 said:


> They continually take this country for mugs...to be honest if you voted for them...
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1416694536496091139?s=19



I had a coffee on Friday with a friend who works for the cabinet office. He mentioned a monitoring group in which ministers and VIPs won't have to self-isolate. While not secret in an official sense, it's all been pretty hush hush. So when this group gets referred to indirectly today, it seems that the U-turn was because the public haven't been softened up enough for it to wash. Indeed, the lack of detail given about the monitoring group suggests that they still want to keep it out of the public gaze.


----------



## Ajax Bay (18 Jul 2021)

The pingdemic is a significant threat to UK society's ordered (and not risk free) relaxation of restrictions. The chances of a fully vaccinated person being infected (compared to one not vaccinated) is less than 20%. And of that <20%, only half will be potentially infectious (ie potential for transmission (these figures from assumptions made in modelling for SAGE).
So when an NHS patient-facing nurse (say, or even one of our nation's leaders) gets pinged, is it sensible to demand self-isolation for 10 days? (I am aware that them's the rulz - but are those rules 'sensible'?) Self-isolate: get a PCR and if negative, cease self-isolation - seems a reasonable low-risk approach (and certainly less risk than several other sanctioned activities).
I do not support some cunning non-self-isolation 'study' which the PM and CoE have wisely resiled on, realising it would be a 'bad idea'. Similarly I thought the full Wembley 'study' lacked any sense of responsibility - what are the results of that study btw?


----------



## Adam4868 (18 Jul 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I had a coffee on Friday with a friend who works for the cabinet office.


Coffee....you've changed.It used to be beer😁


----------



## Edwardoka (18 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> We've heard all the crap analogies already, from baseball bat swinging to getting pi**ed on in Asda!
> 
> Keep away from anywhere you think people are going to hit you with a bat or P**s on you!
> 
> From what you've said in the past you hardly mix and work from home so what extra risk will you be encountering from tomorrow may I ask?


Today I went into a coffee shop for a quick pick me up before the big final push of the longest bike ride I've done since 2017.

Despite the rules still being in place and purportedly enforced in Scotland, I'd say that there were probably 30 people indoors, sans mask.
Perhaps one can elucidate on how exactly I or the employees are supposed to protect ourselves in that scenario?

I could have walked back out. The masked-up employees did not have such luxury.


----------



## shep (19 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> I could have walked back out. The masked-up employees did not have such luxury.


The answer for you is right there, walk out, the employee's unfortunately are scuppered unless they enforce it.

From today there won't be a choice, here anyway.


----------



## theclaud (19 Jul 2021)

Denmark recognising that Wales is a civilised nation. 


View: https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1416456400373522435?s=19


I had to run away from a woman from Leeds last night. She was trying to hug and kiss everyone. England is mental.


----------



## Adam4868 (19 Jul 2021)

theclaud said:


> I had to run away from a woman from Leeds last night. She was trying to hug and kiss everyone. England is mental


Often happens to me....even before covid 🙄


----------



## mjr (19 Jul 2021)

NHS workers to be allowed to go back to work if they test negative, says the TV. More subversion of test 3, or saving face after revelation of the plan to let ministers do that?


----------



## mjr (19 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> The answer for you is right there, walk out, the employee's unfortunately are scuppered unless they enforce it.
> 
> From today there won't be a choice, here anyway.


Why won't there still be the choice to walk out?

And I'm surprised you advocate walking out. I thought you would want to support businesses.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Jul 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> So the government can blame the people instead of their own p!ss poor mismanagement if it goes tits up over the next few months



An attractive proposition to the Tory haters on here.

I wonder how you square it with the plight of musicians, something you know about.

If we want to get musicians playing before the public again, surely the only way is to allow the public to gather to listen to them.


----------



## Julia9054 (19 Jul 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> An attractive proposition to the Tory haters on here.
> 
> I wonder how you square it with the plight of musicians, something you know about.
> 
> If we want to get musicians playing before the public again, surely the only way is to allow the public to gather to listen to them.


I have explained elsewhere what regulations I would keep and which sectors should open up. The entertainment and hospitality industries should have no covid restrictions, masks and distancing should remain on public transport, healthcare settings and in essential shops. Other businesses eg the hair and beauty industry can make their own policies.
Vaccines should be available for under 16s, schools should have broken up a week ago.
It’s not sensible to leave everything up to the individual when individual behaviour impacts on others.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Jul 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> The entertainment and hospitality industries should have no covid restrictions,



Isn't that what we now have?

I agree about masks on public transport, particularly the tube where you are routinely squashed against other passengers.

Masks and social distancing is continuing in hospital settings, something which regrettably I know about.

Some shops are asking people to continue to wear masks.

Given that you will never get exactly what you want, it seems to me the government's current policy is pretty much in accord with your wishes.

Mine too, although my conclusion is the government is doing something of which I approve.


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Jul 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Isn't that what we now have?
> 
> I agree about masks on public transport, particularly the tube where you are routinely squashed against other passengers.
> 
> ...



I think the issue you will see now, it people arguing the toss with stores and transport saying that the government has said mask wearing isn't mandatory.

Even though a store as a private business can mandate whatever they want kind of like a dress code, but I bet you see a rise in Karens kicking off in stores now, it's when they swarm and become a privilege of Karens when it becomes a real issue, my aunt and her friends were already going into stores and making issues on it.

I agree we need to open up, but I feel throwing everything out the door at once is maybe too risky but I hope to be proven wrong.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Jul 2021)

Word reaches me of a protest in Parliament Square.

Apparently the protesters are in favour of personal freedom. but have gathered to moan about Freedom Day.

Which makes little sense.

The obvious thing to do would be to ask them, but the few hacks who turned up to do that were threatened and forced to withdraw.

Presumably the protesters' definition of freedom doesn't stretch to freedom of the press.

That's bound to end well.


----------



## Bromptonaut (19 Jul 2021)

Are they anti-vaxxers? People against Liberation Day? 

Do tell. 

Only hint on the web is MPS Twitter account about P Sq/Bridge St.


----------



## shep (19 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Why won't there still be the choice to walk out?
> 
> And I'm surprised you advocate walking out. I thought you would want to support businesses.


You must go out if you're way to pretend you don't understand me, I've come to realise that, I treat these topics as a mild distraction from the real World so I'm quite happy to play bull$h*t ping pong with you in between normal life.

Why would I care if some fella walked out of a shop because other people didn't have a mask on?

I'll be doing the same if I'm told I HAVE to wear one. 

Having said that I had to wear one this morning at the Dentist but I wanted to go so didn't really have a choice.


----------



## HMS_Dave (19 Jul 2021)

Here are some of the protesters in question. Make of the image what you will. What i will say is on first inspection of the image, i did think it must have been "Hair Implants For Free Day!" In London. Think im probably wrong on that.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Jul 2021)

Bromptonaut said:


> Are they anti-vaxxers? People against Liberation Day?
> 
> Do tell.
> 
> Only hint on the web is MPS Twitter account about P Sq/Bridge St.



Other than what I've posted, I really don't know.

One woman said the atmosphere was good - until the hacks turned up.

What she didn't elucidate is what the job's about.

Given the obvious 'let's ask them' has been rebuffed, I remain baffled.

Maybe someone can find something on social media.


----------



## steve292 (19 Jul 2021)

it's an anti lockdown anti vac protest .
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...cination-protesters-police-clash-b946520.html


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Jul 2021)

In other news, I see Van Tam has been deployed for the 5pm conference.

Probably a good move, because his patter usually goes down well.


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Jul 2021)

Idiots.


----------



## DaveReading (19 Jul 2021)

steve292 said:


> it's an anti lockdown anti vac protest .
> https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...cination-protesters-police-clash-b946520.html



Well at least they picked a lovely day for it.


----------



## oldwheels (19 Jul 2021)

The problems with Boris's pronouncements have started already. 
It is not total freedom day in Scotland and English tourists are supposed to obey our laws while here.
Some have been in the Coop already today refusing to wear masks and shouting abuse at the staff. They also will not obey social distancing rules because they have been told they can now do more or less what they like in England so why should they obey our rules.
This did not happen much until this week when it has erupted in spades. Coincidence?


----------



## vickster (19 Jul 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Well at least they picked a lovely day for it.


Going to be lots of lobster headed bald thug types in Wetherspoons later


----------



## Julia9054 (19 Jul 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Isn't that what we now have?
> 
> I agree about masks on public transport, particularly the tube where you are routinely squashed against other passengers.
> 
> ...


The difference is that I think the government should mandate the rules. Call me cynical if you like but I don't have your touching faith in the great British public to do the sensible thing.


----------



## mjr (19 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Having said that I had to wear one this morning at the Dentist but I wanted to go so didn't really have a choice.


That must have made the dental work difficult! Mine hasn't required masking at any point, but the medical team are wearing what looks like half-hazmat and the windows have been open whenever I've gone. Appointments and forms are now done over phone or online.


----------



## Bromptonaut (19 Jul 2021)

oldwheels said:


> The problems with Boris's pronouncements have started already.
> It is not total freedom day in Scotland and English tourists are supposed to obey our laws while here.
> Some have been in the Coop already today refusing to wear masks and shouting abuse at the staff. They also will not obey social distancing rules because they have been told they can now do more or less what they like in England so why should they obey our rules.
> This did not happen much until this week when it has erupted in spades. Coincidence?



English people don't understand devolution shocker.

Whitehall didn't understand it ten years ago when I was working for a cross border body.

The muppets probably think Boris trumps Nicola.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Jul 2021)

Covid is a complete clusterfark - official confirmation from Taiwan.


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/NewsForAllUK/status/1417030118229385217


----------



## oldwheels (19 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Covid is a complete clusterfark - official confirmation from Taiwan.
> 
> 
> View: https://mobile.twitter.com/NewsForAllUK/status/1417030118229385217



I have no direct knowledge of Taiwan but I imagine a quiet disappearing act is likely.


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Jul 2021)

Taiwan was a pretty good place when i was there years ago.


----------



## Johnno260 (19 Jul 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Word reaches me of a protest in Parliament Square.
> 
> Apparently the protesters are in favour of personal freedom. but have gathered to moan about Freedom Day.
> 
> ...



yea my numpty family members are there, I hope it rains.


----------



## fossyant (19 Jul 2021)

Oh thats kicker. Double jabbed passport to get in clubs or 'crowded places' from September. What's a crowded venue ? Pub, concert ?

Put the responsibility on the venue ? Boat sailed today, not in 2 ¹/² months time.


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Jul 2021)

Good old JVT.

He got a 'rip the pants out of it' in, a mention of the footie game he went to on Saturday, and a slightly tortuous metaphor about packing lots of people into his garden shed for a drink.


----------



## vickster (19 Jul 2021)

fossyant said:


> Oh thats kicker. Double jabbed passport to get in clubs or 'crowded places' from September. What's a crowded venue ? Pub, concert ?
> 
> Put the responsibility on the venue ? Boat sailed today, not in 2 ¹/² months time.


Presumably it’s to allow time for 18 year olds to get fully vaxxed, given young uns also like to go clubbing not only old farts like on this forum 
Anything encouraging younger people to get vaxxed is a good thing


----------



## Rocky (19 Jul 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Good old JVT.
> 
> He got a 'rip the pants out of it' in, a mention of the footie game he went to on Saturday, and a slightly tortuous metaphor about packing lots of people into his garden shed for a drink.


Although, for people who have lost loved ones during this pandemic, using trite cliches such as these is a tad insulting, to say the least. (Before you ask, I am speaking from personal experience).


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Jul 2021)

Freedom from American tourists day!


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> subversion of test 3


Think it is clearly moving the goalposts on Test 3. A protest should be made, pointing that out. Hash out an outline, please.


Johnno260 said:


> a privilege of Karens


Love it!


oldwheels said:


> it is not total freedom day in Scotland


But the daily case rate in Scotland is dropping like a stone. FM NS needs to catch up.


Oldhippy said:


> Taiwan was a pretty good place when i was there years ago.


That's what the "male tutor" thought too, I suspect.


fossyant said:


> Double jabbed passport to get in clubs or 'crowded places' from September





vickster said:


> it’s to allow time for 18 year olds to get fully vaxxed


My 18yo has asked advice about getting his second jab brought forward to about 7 weeks: 14 days before the Reading Festival (crowded but outdoors). Since he's been working in the local chemist, administering the jabs, I suspect he will have little difficulty (20 Jun first jab).


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Jul 2021)

Children won't get vaccine option. 


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1417160105649483776


----------



## mjr (19 Jul 2021)

vickster said:


> Presumably it’s to allow time for 18 year olds to get fully vaxxed, given young uns also like to go clubbing not only old farts like on this forum
> Anything encouraging younger people to get vaxxed is a good thing


Yes, 8 weeks gap plus 2 weeks for maximum effect plus a bit for booking is pretty much end Sep.

Assuming people don't pack out nightclubs before then, send cases rocketing and combine with the dodgy surrender decision to cause restrictions to return.


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ladbible/status/1417039084246212608

Oops.

I read the Dutch premature reopening is being considered as a possible crime. Whither Boris?


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> I read the Dutch premature reopening is being considered as a possible crime. Whither Boris?


I read that not wearing a helmet is being considered as a crime. Whither Boris (helmets do not suit his hairstyle or general 'look', imo)?


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Think it is clearly moving the goalposts on Test 3. A protest should be made, pointing that out. Hash out an outline, please.
> Love it!
> But the daily case rate in Scotland is dropping like a stone. FM NS needs to catch up.
> 
> ...


I worked in the music industry so only dealt with record labels.


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Jul 2021)

UK Cases





Week-end effect?
Orange line is UK; blue line is without Scotland (to make clear the massive drop in Scotland is not skewing the data).


----------



## Pale Rider (19 Jul 2021)

Tom Harwood from GB News was about to inform us about the Parliament Square protest, but he was shouted down by a foul mouthed harradan.

This caused the broadcaster to pull the outside broadcast in the interests of public decency, so we are still none the wiser.

One of the things the dreadful creature bellowed at Harwood was he's a w*nker.

No doubt some might agree with that, but there's a time and a place for everything - this was neither.


----------



## shep (19 Jul 2021)

Isn't it a strange World in which we live, until discovering the current affairs section of this forum I went along completely believing this virus to be nothing more than an annoying inconvenience to my daily life. 

Can't go where I want, do what I want, see who I want (unless they were happy to) wear a mask that I didn't want to, everyone I knew felt the same. 

Behold, a whole new World has opened up to me online yet I'm still to come across people like you in real life, my local has joyfully embraced today's easing of restrictions by replacing all the tables in their previous positions to enable people to sit where they want. 

This pub is frequented by mainly older people and not one of them has shown any anguish over the changes, 

Are we all missing something?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Isn't it a strange World in which we live, until discovering the current affairs section of this forum I went along completely believing this virus to be nothing more than an annoying inconvenience to my daily life.
> 
> Can't go where I want, do what I want, see who I want (unless they were happy to) wear a mask that I didn't want to, everyone I knew felt the same.
> 
> ...


Perhaps we're just keeping out of your way.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> UK Cases
> View attachment 599979
> 
> Week-end effect?
> Orange line is UK; blue line is without Scotland (to make clear the massive drop in Scotland is not skewing the data).



I wouldn't get too excited about any given day. 

7 day increase is 40% which is fortnightly doubling. 






Seems to be quite a bit of chatter about pcr tests being hard to come by too.


----------



## mjr (19 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Are we all missing something?


Self-preservation instinct in the face of a virus that has reportedly killed over 4 million, perhaps.


----------



## midlife (19 Jul 2021)

If our hospital admission continues to rise at the same rate a quick calculation suggests that about 11th August out Trust stops having hospitals and starts having a COVID treatment service.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (19 Jul 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> Tom Harwood from GB News was about to inform us me...



FTFY 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/...tt-take-the-knee-gloria-de-piero-b946081.html


----------



## shep (19 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Self-preservation instinct in the face of a virus that has reportedly killed over 4 million, perhaps.


Is it naivety, ignorance, stupidity or a mix of all 3 I wonder?

I assume most posters on here feel the same so I wonder if it's being a cyclist, a remainer or being more Left Wing that makes people look completely differently at this than most I know?

Intriguing.


----------



## classic33 (19 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Isn't it a strange World in which we live, until discovering the current affairs section of this forum I went along completely believing this virus to be nothing more than an annoying inconvenience to my daily life.
> 
> Can't go where I want, do what I want, see who I want (unless they were happy to) wear a mask that I didn't want to, everyone I knew felt the same.
> 
> ...


I just find it odd that "normal life" means nothing more than being able to go to the pub, inside or outside.

It's as though life revolves around drink, and nothing else, for some.


----------



## classic33 (19 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I wouldn't get too excited about any given day.
> 
> 7 day increase is 40% which is fortnightly doubling.
> 
> ...


Can go to Bradford, behind the Town Hall, and walk in for a PCR test, any day.


----------



## shep (19 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> I just find it odd that "normal life" means nothing more than being able to go to the pub, inside or outside.
> 
> It's as though life revolves around drink, and nothing else, for some.


Not just pubs, I regularly go to Football, classic car shows, classic motorbike shows, concerts, VW shows, restaurants etc so there have been many varied restrictions and everyone I know is of the same opinion. 

Is it an educational thing, no close friends of mine went to University for example, none have an office job therefore none are currently working from home.

That's not to say I know no-one who earns a decent crust, builders, bodyshop owners, music industry, telecom engineers.

I guess I'm getting all philosophical as for me today is the beginning of a return to normality and as previously mentioned everyone I know feels the same, whereas I read on here that it's tantamount to World suicide and it's got me thinking, have I got it wrong all this time?

Very interesting.


----------



## classic33 (19 Jul 2021)

Going slightly off topic. But an issue with pubs reopening. In order to get the maximum seating possible, some are using their service areas. This has resulted in bins being placed on public footpaths. An additional problem being the rats they're attracting.

To the right, at the end of the path there's three food outlets, all with outdoor seating. All share the same service area as the pub, but can't use it.






There's often as many as 15 bins lined up along that wall, all with food waste.

I was all for what the people cleaning the service area did. Power washing it down, in the rain. Now not so much.


----------



## shep (19 Jul 2021)

Surely before restrictions as pubs can have as many as they like in now. ( in keeping with previous laws on overcrowding obviously) need to put that bit in as I'm sure someone will come up with the regs regarding numbers. @mjr


----------



## Milzy (19 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Self-preservation instinct in the face of a virus that has reportedly killed over 4 million, perhaps.


It hasn’t killed over 4 million. Get a grip.


----------



## PK99 (19 Jul 2021)

Milzy said:


> It hasn’t killed over 4 million. Get a grip.



World wide it has - and likely an undercount


----------



## shep (19 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> Can go to Bradford,


That's a godsend in itself.


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Jul 2021)

midlife said:


> If our hospital admission continues to rise at the same rate a quick calculation suggests that about 11th August out Trust stops having hospitals and starts having a COVID treatment service.


I appreciate the NW is not a middle of the road in cases per million and beds per million. However I note that admissions have been going up about 30 a day (UK) on average, over the last 20 days. We can expect them to continue to rise for 9 days after the daily cases peak.
Occupancy of beds (COVID-19 positive patients) in NHS England hospitals has gone up steadily about 125 a day for the last fortnight: latest data is for 19 Jul: 3813. This is about 3.3% of England's beds and each day an additional 0.11% of beds will be so occupied if the rate established over the last fortnight continues. The rate will assuredly rise: assume it trebles: 22 days to get to 10% of total beds (11 Aug).
Occupancy peak has been modelled to be as late as September: that'd be another 10% of beds thus occupied (20% total).
I don't know if those figures tie in with your 'quick calculation' (not sure what you mean by "at the same rate" - same as what) and don't know when you consider the hospital > COVID Treatment Centre transition occurs.
If you mean same rate as the increase per week @roubaixtuesday quoted for cases (up 41% in 7 days), then the case to hospitalisation conversion rate is lower the younger you go, so perhaps the actual trends will be less dramatic.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (19 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Self-preservation instinct in the face of a virus that has reportedly killed over 4 million, perhaps.


Except it goes beyond the self and the ego, it stretches to other people. And it's never been about ''personal responsibility'' alone. 

I have a frail elderly mother, we're both double-jabbed, but I'm aware that as background infection rates increase, the chances of catching and/or carrying the virus to her also increase. My assessment is that she would not survive the illness. 

So I have to temper my behaviour, not for myself but for another person. This means staying away from people as much as possible on ''Freedom Day.'' It means wearing a mask around her even if she doesn't. It means keeping as much distance away from those with 11 plus morality who think that not wearing a mask to protect others is ok. Because their thinking hasn't gone beyond self and ego and they consider themselves entitled to put others' safety at risk.


----------



## midlife (19 Jul 2021)

Our hospital was a new build some 20 years ago with the idea that day stay coupled with hot bedding meant way fewer beds than the old hospital with reduced bed numbers over the years as the Trust built up a multi million pound deficit.

Thus we have a small number of actual beds for the population and is quick to get clogged up. We transferred a lot of patients to other hospitals in the last waves.


----------



## classic33 (19 Jul 2021)

midlife said:


> Our hospital was a new build some 20 years ago with the idea that day stay coupled with hot bedding meant way fewer beds than the old hospital with reduced bed numbers over the years as the Trust built up a multi million pound deficit.
> 
> Thus we have a small number of actual beds for the population and is quick to get clogged up. We transferred a lot of patients to other hospitals in the last waves.


Seems to be the same locally.
Where do they get sent when the current receiving hospitals are full?


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Jul 2021)

Deaths in England and Wales (data to 25 Jun, zig-zags are public holiday caused, with the late May one being week number consistent).
Since the last wave tailed off in March, less people have died than in an average year (Mar-Jun).




https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-florence-nightingales-daigrams-for-deaths/


----------



## alicat (19 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Not just pubs, I regularly go to Football, classic car shows, classic motorbike shows, concerts, VW shows, restaurants etc so there have been many varied restrictions and *everyone I know is of the same opinion *[emphasis added].



Maybe the people who are less gungho won't be at those events and/or the people you are mixing with are repeating back to you what they think you want to hear rather than what they really think in an 'anythingforaquietlifekindofway'.


----------



## midlife (19 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> Seems to be the same locally.
> Where do they get sent when the current receiving hospitals are full?



Technically we never actually got full enough to stop admissions. Transfers went to larger conurbations iirc, Lancaster, Preston, Newcastle. 

Our site has just opened a new cancer centre, not enough staff here to run it so being run by Newcastle with staff using the A69 as a corridor. As @Ajax Bay says we are a bit of an outlier


----------



## classic33 (19 Jul 2021)

midlife said:


> Technically we never actually got full enough to stop admissions. Transfers went to larger conurbations iirc, Lancaster, Preston, Newcastle.
> 
> Our site has just opened a new cancer centre, not enough staff here to run it so being run by Newcastle with staff using the A69 as a corridor. As @Ajax Bay says we are a bit of an outlier


Bradford Royal Infirmary were sending them to St. Jame's, Leeds. As were Calderdale Royal.

When they, St. Jame's, are full what then. The situation has to be repeated over the country, not isolated areas.


----------



## midlife (19 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> Bradford Royal Infirmary were sending them to St. Jame's, Leeds. As were Calderdale Royal.
> 
> When they, St. Jame's, are full what then. The situation has to be repeated over the country, not isolated areas.



In theory there are enough beds covered in blankets that can accommodate the percentage of covid patients that require admission at high levels of community infection. Maybe just in the wrong place at times?


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

alicat said:


> Maybe the people who are less gungho won't be at those events and/or the people you are mixing with are repeating back to you what they think you want to hear rather than what they really think in an 'anythingforaquietlifekindofway'.


Why would they?

If you think getting back to normal is gung-ho then that's up to you, the 12 other season ticket holders I know have all renewed so looks like they're as gung-ho as me!

My VW pals are all going to the upcoming shows so I guess the people I know are as gung-ho as me?

I doubt anyone panders to my opinion. 

Oh well, each to their own.


----------



## FishFright (20 Jul 2021)

The globe is red again 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The day after Freedom Day, here are all the countries that won’t let us in. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PlagueIsland?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#PlagueIsland</a> <a href="https://t.co/2TMkUbUvbW">pic.twitter.com/2TMkUbUvbW</a></p>&mdash; Tony Roberts (@FosterChangeUK) <a href="
View: https://twitter.com/FosterChangeUK/status/1417372682962808863?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
">July 20, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## FishFright (20 Jul 2021)

oldwheels said:


> I have no direct knowledge of Taiwan but I imagine a quiet disappearing act is likely.



I know nothing about it but boy do I have an opinion to share


----------



## mjr (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Why would they?


It might be "naivety, ignorance, stupidity or a mix of all 3" or maybe they've had enough of being accused of bull shoot ping pong (or whatever it was) and suggestions that they have been cowering at home when they try to discuss keeping any regulations at all.


----------



## lane (20 Jul 2021)

Mrs Lane spent a day helping at the vaccination centre. The result of which she now has to self isolate for 10 days. I think she may reconsider her volunteering in future.


----------



## lane (20 Jul 2021)

There were three people based in the UK but from Hong Kong on TV, where from what I could gather mask wearing has been the norm pre pandemic. They were read a tweet about "mask wearing and cowering at home and not getting on with their life". They looked quite perplexed and said they do go about their normal lives but just also wear a mask. A distinction unfortunately lost on some in this country including many Tory MPs.


----------



## Milzy (20 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> World wide it has - and likely an undercount


Don’t believe anything you hear & only half that you see.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Jul 2021)

.


Milzy said:


> Don’t believe anything you hear & only half that you see.



How many has it killed? Do tell.


----------



## mjr (20 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> There were three people based in the UK but from Hong Kong on TV, where from what I could gather mask wearing has been the norm pre pandemic. They were read a tweet about "mask wearing and cowering at home and not getting on with their life". They looked quite perplexed and said they do go about their normal lives but just also wear a mask. A distinction unfortunately lost on some in this country including many Tory MPs.


But if Tory MPs and friends don't link mask wearing to cowering and not living, how can they ever argue against it in a way that doesn't make them look like complete daffodils?


----------



## lane (20 Jul 2021)

Milzy said:


> Don’t believe anything you hear & only half that you see.



Probably reasonable advice but some estimates I have seen today put the death toll potentially as high as 4 million *in India alone.*


----------



## lane (20 Jul 2021)

It must be a bit tough for Boris. He really wants to do whatever the Telegraph say he should - but every time he tries it turns into a bit of a fiasco.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> It must be a bit tough for Boris. He really wants to do whatever the Telegraph say he should - but every time he tries it turns into a bit of a fiasco.



Seems to be doing just fine to me, still in his dream job, able to get away with lying incontinently the whole time and other people on hand to pay his debts off.

I'd take it.


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> It might be "naivety, ignorance, stupidity or a mix of all 3" or maybe they've had enough of being accused of bull shoot ping pong (or whatever it was) and suggestions that they have been cowering at home when they try to discuss keeping any regulations at all.


I don't know anyone who has opinions that different to me on this subject so it never arises, that's how friendship is built, by being similar.


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

Take this as you want - maybe vested interests etc, etc, but from the hospital where I work we are shortly to be told the measures taken shortly will be like nothing we have experienced in COVID so far - the projected numbers are totally of the scale - and whilst there has been some redeployment of non clinical staff in previous waves - we are getting to a stage where whole swathes of non clinical staff are to deployed to the front line.


----------



## mjr (20 Jul 2021)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/forest_fr1ends/status/1416462517803667460


----------



## Rusty Nails (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I don't know anyone who has opinions that different to me on this subject so it never arises, that's how friendship is built, by being similar.



Or having a very blinkered view of things.

I have good friends who are very different to me and just about the only thing we agree on is sport and beer. Despite some of them having very different views about Brexit and Covid restrictions to mine that does not define them and they are good people. We even learn from each other's arguments now and again.


----------



## PK99 (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I don't know anyone who has opinions that different to me on this subject so it never arises, that's how friendship is built, by being similar.



That's how silos insulated from the rest of the world and not communicating, are built.

A very sad state of affairs IMHO


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

Rusty Nails said:


> Or having a very blinkered view of things.
> 
> I have good friends who are very different to me and just about the only thing we agree on is sport and beer. Despite some of them having very different views about Brexit and Covid restrictions to mine that does not define them and they are good people. We even learn from each other's arguments now and again.


So you either agree to differ, refrain from discussing the subject or , like someone said earlier, they're agreeing with you for a quiet life. 

I don't think it's having a blinkered view of life it's not wanting my socialising experience to mirror a thread on here, I like to have a giggle and some banter when I'm out not something that resembles Question Time!

Steer clear of religion and politics has always been my advice as inevitably someone ends up spitting their dummy out.


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> That's how silos insulated from the rest of the world and not communicating, are built.
> 
> A very sad state of affairs IMHO


Or having a good bunch of pals who have a good time when in each other's company, a very happy state of affairs in my book.

The 1000's of people at the Football recently and all those at the F1 the weekend didn't look particularly insulated to me and I'm sure some on here frown at their lack of self control and consideration for others. 

I doubt my views are a minority.


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Or having a good bunch of pals who have a good time when in each other's company, a very happy state of affairs in my book.



You must be very different in real life 😉


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> You must be very different in real life 😉


I am exactly the same, if I was introduced to someone in a pub and they immediately started slagging off the country or the handling of the pandemic or the fact masks should still be worn I would put my opinion across and we would either agree to differ after a few short exchanges or the conversation would end there.

I'm sure we would then right each other off as a c**k and our paths would never cross again.


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> You must be very different in real life 😉


Why, do you have mates you're constantly at loggerheads with over everyday matters?

If so what do you have in common?

Or do you just enjoy continually bickering?

Aren't that what Wives are for?


----------



## Buck (20 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Mrs Lane spent a day helping at the vaccination centre. The result of which she now has to self isolate for 10 days. I think she may reconsider her volunteering in future.



Why is she having to isolate?
Wasn’t she wearing PPE? She didn’t have the NHS App switched on did she?

(sorry for the questions but she shouldn’t be having to isolate if IPC rules followed)


----------



## Edwardoka (20 Jul 2021)

One of my friends is someone I don't think I've ever agreed with on anything. He's a MAGA-supporting, believer of every conspiracy theory going.. and an antivaxxer, despite having reasons not to be (which I won't go into)

The other week we met up in the park and when I told him I'd been double vaccinated he sort of flinched, before asking which arm, I told him and he sincerely asked if it was magnetic. There are few avenues of life we haven't argued about but it rarely ends in falling out.

IMO it'd be an intensely boring life if people surrounded themselves only with those who hold the same views.
Might as well be a budgie infatuated with the bird in the mirror.


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> It might be "naivety, ignorance, stupidity or a mix of all 3" or maybe they've had enough of being accused of bull shoot ping pong (or whatever it was) and suggestions that they have been cowering at home when they try to discuss keeping any regulations at all.


Most have either been in the pub, around someone's house or cycling when the conversations took place so I doubt that do you?


----------



## icowden (20 Jul 2021)

My Coronavirus observations from today and yesterday:

If in Marks and Sparks, wear a mask. Very few without, and those without being frowned upon severely.
Sainsbury, 90% medium level frowns
Tesco 50% no frowning, just people moving away from those likely to deck them
Wickes - 99% masks, no real frowning.

It seems a wide swathe of the population don't want to believe Boris and throw caution to the wind.
I think we know who will be first to go in the event of a viral zombie apocalypse however.


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> One of my friends is someone I don't think I've ever agreed with on anything. He's a MAGA-supporting, believer of every conspiracy theory going.. and an antivaxxer, despite having reasons not to be (which I won't go into)
> 
> The other week we met up in the park and when I told him I'd been double vaccinated he sort of flinched, before asking which arm, I told him and he sincerely asked if it was magnetic. There are few avenues of life we haven't argued about but it rarely ends in falling out.
> 
> ...


Bit like most on here then, that's why I plug away at you lot in the hope of getting through 🤣.

On a serious note, who wants to go out after a hard day's graft and get embroiled in some deep, thought provoking, put the World to rights debate?

The IT, Lecturer, Teacher types amongst you might do but not the type of fella's I know do.

A couple have quite stressful transport manager type jobs and all they want is a couple of pints, talk bollox about the football before they go home to the missus and kids.

Stuff Covid and Politics.


----------



## icowden (20 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> There were three people based in the UK but from Hong Kong on TV, where from what I could gather mask wearing has been the norm pre pandemic. They were read a tweet about "mask wearing and cowering at home and not getting on with their life". They looked quite perplexed and said they do go about their normal lives but just also wear a mask. A distinction unfortunately lost on some in this country including many Tory MPs.



Across Asia (Hong Kong, China, Japan, Korea etc) mask wearing is considered a politeness. It would be very very rude / dishonourable to go out in public with any kind of infection and not wear a mask. 



> Even though the use of facemasks in Japan can be traced back to before the 20th century, it was the Spanish influenza pandemic between 1918 and 1920 that significantly altered the status of wearing masks.
> 
> This shift was caused by the search for effective ways to contain the influenza pandemic. By the autumn of 1918, Japan’s National Public Health Bureau, learning from cities like San Francisco that successfully responded to the pandemic through mask orders, took action. Local authorities across Japan were directed to encourage people to wear masks in hospitals, on trains and trams, and in crowded areas. A year later, free masks were provided to those who could not afford them, and theatres, buses and cinemas were added to the list of public places where wearing masks was mandatory.
> 
> Gradually, the practice of mask-wearing became less dependent on a specific pandemic threat and premised more on an individual duty to protect one’s family, community and country, which demanded sustained engagement. It was not surprising then that public campaigns also built upon themes that integrated family and work life. On the one hand, mask-wearing came to symbolise the love and care in people’s relations with their family members. At the same time, masks became embedded in an employee's contribution to the national economy because it prevented the interruption of work due to sickness.


----------



## Rusty Nails (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> So you either agree to differ, refrain from discussing the subject or , like someone said earlier, they're agreeing with you for a quiet life.
> 
> I don't think it's having a blinkered view of life it's not wanting my socialising experience to mirror a thread on here, I like to have a giggle and some banter when I'm out not something that resembles Question Time!
> 
> Steer clear of religion and politics has always been my advice as inevitably someone ends up spitting their dummy out.



We often agree to differ after arguing about something, whether it is sport, religion, politics or the new colour they've painted the bar, and still have time for a laugh or taking the piss out of each other. Arguments between friends are not war and we are all too old and too ugly to spit our dummies out if we don't agree.


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I am exactly the same, if I was introduced to someone in a pub and they immediately started slagging off the country or the handling of the pandemic or the fact masks should still be worn I would put my opinion across and we would either agree to differ after a few short exchanges or the conversation would end there.
> 
> I'm sure we would then right each other off as a c**k and our paths would never cross again.



Oh the Irony !!!


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Oh the Irony !!!


Told you, I say it as I see it, from both angles. 

Wait, wasn't that in a show once "say what you see".


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Bit like most on here then, that's why I plug away at you lot in the hope of getting through 🤣.
> 
> On a serious note, who wants to go out after a hard day's graft and get embroiled in some deep, thought provoking, put the World to rights debate?
> 
> ...



Opium of the masses as we used to say. 
Or as they are increasingly known in 2021 the "it's all a load of bollox" crew....


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Opium of the masses as we used to say.
> Or as they are increasingly known in 2021 the "it's all a load of bollox" crew....


I realise Covid exists, just bored of discussing it with people that's all.

I assume that's what you meant?


----------



## Edwardoka (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Told you, I say it as I see it, from both angles.
> 
> Wait, wasn't that in a show once "say what you see".


We've had a lovely day Jim, we're going to take the money

*Sad bull noise, theme tune goes to minor key*


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> We've had a lovely day Jim, we're going to take the money
> 
> *Sad bull noise, theme tune goes to minor key*


Not sure Darts were involved, could be wrong though. 

You being an Academic and 'all. 😉


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I realise Covid exists, just bored of discussing it with people that's all.


In a more sane world this would beg the question why you are posting on a Coronavirus outbreak thread.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Jul 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> In a more sane world this would beg the question why you are posting on a Coronavirus outbreak thread.



And I find it kind of funny
I find it kind of sad
The dreams in which I'm dying are the best I've ever had
I find it hard to tell you 'cause I find it hard to take
When people run in circles it's a very, very
Mad world
Mad world
Mad world
Mad world


View: https://youtu.be/u1ZvPSpLxCg


----------



## Mo1959 (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Told you, I say it as I see it, from both angles.
> 
> Wait, wasn't that in a show once "say what you see".


Catchphrase?


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> In a more sane world this would beg the question why you are posting on a Coronavirus outbreak thread.


Because it's like an alternative universe sometimes I find fascinating, the extreme difference of opinion and fears compared with how I see it.


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> I realise Covid exists, just bored of discussing it with people that's all.
> 
> I assume that's what you meant?


Lol - no not what I meant at all . But never mind.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Because it's like an alternative universe sometimes I find fascinating, the extreme difference of opinion and fears compared with how I see it.



Perhaps you should get out more. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/most-britons-want-covid-restrictions-remain-poll-2021-07-14/


----------



## slowmotion (20 Jul 2021)

Slightly off topic, but I stumbled on an article in a US magazine which looked at infection rates in some of the solidly Republican states. A doctor in Arkansas said that of all the people in Covid hospital ICUs in her state, 97% had chosen not to be vaccinated. That says a lot about ignorance.


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> Slightly off topic, but I stumbled on an article in a US magazine which looked at infection rates in some of the solidly Republican states. A doctor in Arkansas said that of all the people in Covid hospital ICUs in her state, 97% had chosen not to be vaccinated. That says a lot about ignorance.



I can't be sure - but I thought I read a stat today that 40% of admissions are vaccinated people.???

If true the whole effectiveness of the vaccine must be in doubt.


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Because it's like an alternative universe sometimes I find fascinating, the extreme difference of opinion and fears compared with how I see it.



So despite the happy go lucky ,beer drinking, football banter loving guy - there's something itching ? - is there more to understand here ? - but the conflict that you shouldn't go there ...that way lies unhappiness and discontent ...stick to the booze and footy ...it will all be alrighty !


----------



## markemark (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I can't be sure - but I thought I read a stat today that 40% of admissions are vaccinated people.???
> 
> If true the whole effectiveness of the vaccine must be in doubt.


60% of hospital admissions come from the 10% of the adult population who are unvaccinated. I’d say that shows the vaccine is working really well.


----------



## Bromptonaut (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I can't be sure - but I thought I read a stat today that 40% of admissions are vaccinated people.???
> 
> If true the whole effectiveness of the vaccine must be in doubt.



The vaccine does not make you totally immune, it just means your system hits the ground running if you get the virus. 

Some of those people will be ill enough to need hospital treatment. Those with co-morbidities in particular can get pretty ill.


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> So despite the happy go lucky ,beer drinking, football banter loving guy - there's something itching ? - is there more to understand here ? - but the conflict that you shouldn't go there ...that way lies unhappiness and discontent ...stick to the booze and footy ...it will all be alrighty !


Oh I know it will be alright, just wondering how long till everyone else feels the same?


----------



## shep (20 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Perhaps you should get out more.
> 
> https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/most-britons-want-covid-restrictions-remain-poll-2021-07-14/


I think getting out more is what's frowned upon by some on here so I don't think that's a good idea.

Oh you mean take any notice of some Poll?

Unless I've misread 66.6% of 1057 respondents think restrictions should remain, that's 600 odd people then.

So what, 1000's went to the Euro final who clearly thought differently so pretty pointless post really.

Perhaps YOU should get out more?


----------



## slowmotion (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I can't be sure - but I thought I read a stat today that 40% of admissions are vaccinated people.???
> 
> If true the whole effectiveness of the vaccine must be in doubt.


{polite cough}

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...al-with-coronavirus-are-unvaccinated-12359317


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

Bromptonaut said:


> The vaccine does not make you totally immune, it just means your system hits the ground running if you get the virus.
> 
> Some of those people will be ill enough to need hospital treatment. Those with co-morbidities in particular can get pretty ill.



Yes I understand that. 
But I seem to be hearing everyday that double jabbed people are going down with covid. Weren't we told it's effectiveness was around 90%.????


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> {polite cough}
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...al-with-coronavirus-are-unvaccinated-12359317



But if 60% of admissions are unvaccinated -that would imply the other 40% are vaccinated ?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> If true the whole effectiveness of the vaccine must be in doubt.



No, it just means that a huge proportion of the population most vulnerable to hospitalisation has been vaccinated.


----------



## Milzy (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> But if 60% of admissions are unvaccinated -that would imply the other 40% are vaccinated ?


Very worrying stuff really. You’d expect a lot less going into hospital vaccinated. Maybe it will just prevent deaths but can still F you up.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Jul 2021)

Milzy said:


> Very worrying stuff really. *You’d expect a lot less going into hospital vaccinated.* Maybe it will just prevent deaths but can still F you up.



No. Its exactly what you'd expect for a 90% effective vaccine. 



kingrollo said:


> But I seem to be hearing everyday that double jabbed people are going down with covid. Weren't we told it's effectiveness was around 90%.????



10x more would be going down with it if unvaccinated. Seriously, that's how prevalent this thing is right now.


----------



## DaveReading (20 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> No. Its exactly what you'd expect for a 90% effective vaccine.



A surprising number of people appear not to understand that.


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> No. Its exactly what you'd expect for a 90% effective vaccine.
> 
> 
> 
> 10x more would be going down with it if unvaccinated. Seriously, that's how prevalent this thing is right now.



Yeah I guess that figures. The hospital where I work there are rumours of redeployment of non clinical staff on a scale that will dwarf that of the first 2 waves.


----------



## slowmotion (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> But if 60% of admissions are unvaccinated -that would imply the other 40% are vaccinated ?


Yes. Vaccinated yesterday with the first jab before it gives any protection? Vaccinated with one jab eight weeks ago when it gives some?

I don't have access to the data, but it doesn't necessarily imply that double-jabbing doesn't largely work.


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

DaveReading said:


> A surprising number of people appear not to understand that.



Me for one. If the vaccination in an ideal world stops you getting covid, failing that it stop you getting sick enough to need hospital treatment.

But if 40% of admissions are double jabbed -?

I suppose we need data of how many double jabbed end up in hospital. Rather than a % of admitted ????


----------



## kingrollo (20 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> Yes. Vaccinated yesterday with the first jab before it gives any protection? Vaccinated with one jab eight weeks ago when it gives some?
> 
> I don't have access to the data, but it doesn't necessarily imply that double-jabbing doesn't largely work.



No doubt the figures will come in due course. We perhaps need a comparison of 1000 double jabbed - v 1000 not vaccinated.

Then as you say does double jabbed yesterday count ??


----------



## roubaixtuesday (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> .
> 
> But if 40% of admissions are double jabbed -?



To illustrate 

Let's say 90% of the vulnerable population are double jabbed. 

40% of admissions are double jabbed. 

Risk if jabbed is 40/90 ~ 0.44

Risk if not jabbed is 60/10 = 6

Risk reduction from jabbing = 6/0.44 ~13 fold

Vaccine efficacy >90%.


----------



## slowmotion (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Me for one. If the vaccination in an ideal world stops you getting covid, failing that it stop you getting sick enough to need hospital treatment.
> 
> But if 40% of admissions are double jabbed -?
> 
> I suppose we need data of how many double jabbed end up in hospital. Rather than a % of admitted ????


Quite so. How many people with two jabs and the 2-3 weeks after the second (to build up further protection) actually end up on death's door in ICU? I don't have the numbers, but I do know that people drawing the conclusion that " jabs don't work" need to be quoted in the OED under "Stupidity".


----------



## slowmotion (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> No doubt the figures will come in due course. We perhaps need a comparison of 1000 double jabbed - v 1000 not vaccinated.
> 
> Then as you say does double jabbed yesterday count ??


It looks like the "non-vaccinated" could be a dwindling cohort, one way or another.


----------



## PK99 (20 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Me for one. If the vaccination in an ideal world stops you getting covid, failing that it stop you getting sick enough to need hospital treatment.
> 
> But if 40% of admissions are double jabbed -?
> 
> I suppose we need data of how many double jabbed end up in hospital. Rather than a % of admitted ????



And we need data on the characteristics of the double jabbed who end up in hospital. 

Is it the same (set of) people who were most at risk when unvaccinated ie obese and or other co-morbidities?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (20 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> Yes. Vaccinated yesterday with the first jab before it gives any protection? Vaccinated with one jab eight weeks ago when it gives some?
> 
> I don't have access to the data, but it doesn't necessarily imply that double-jabbing doesn't largely work.


Does this Zoe covid screengrab help?





Note: it's only those who test positive, not hospitalisations or deaths. 

​


----------



## slowmotion (20 Jul 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Does this Zoe covid screengrab help?
> View attachment 600224
> 
> Note: it's only those who test positive, not hospitalisations or deaths.
> ...


Thanks. Yes it does.


----------



## mjr (20 Jul 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> Catchphrase?


It's right, but it's not good!


----------



## lane (21 Jul 2021)

In the co-op probably more with a mask on than without and one guy holding a mask in his hand (may have been a lib dem so on the fence)


----------



## newfhouse (21 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> {polite cough}


You should get tested if it persists.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Jul 2021)

A nice graphical illustration of why 40% vaccinated in hospital is, entirely counterintuitively, a good thing.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> A nice graphical illustration of why 40% vaccinated in hospital is, entirely counterintuitively, a good thing.
> 
> View attachment 600260


Does 'vaccinated' here mean double jabbed or does it include singles?


----------



## kingrollo (21 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> A nice graphical illustration of why 40% vaccinated in hospital is, entirely counterintuitively, a good thing.
> 
> View attachment 600260



Any chance you could put a bit more meat on the bones as to what this means - have we reduced expected admissions by close on 90% ?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Any chance you could put a bit more meat on the bones as to what this means - have we reduced expected admissions by close on 90% ?



Yes, perhaps a bit less. Without vaccination:

The unvaccinated 60% admissions remain as they would have been. 

The vaccinated 40% admissions would have been 10x higher, 400%.

So the total would have been 60+400= 460% of what it is without vaccinating. ~80% drop

These are intended as illustrative only. In reality transmission would also have been much higher without vaccines, and society would have largely shut down, whether through lockdown diktat or self preservation, I think.


----------



## PK99 (21 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> A nice graphical illustration of why 40% vaccinated in hospital is, entirely counterintuitively, a good thing.
> 
> View attachment 600260



Yes very good illustration. I'm highly numerate, but find it quite hard getting my mind around these sorts of numbers - and impossible to explain to anyone else


----------



## PK99 (21 Jul 2021)

slowmotion said:


> It looks like the "non-vaccinated" could be a dwindling cohort, one way or another.



And when we have 100% vaccinated, then, given that no vaccine is perfect, 100% of the (very few) cases will be vaccinated.


----------



## icowden (21 Jul 2021)

Milzy said:


> Very worrying stuff really. You’d expect a lot less going into hospital vaccinated. Maybe it will just prevent deaths but can still F you up.



It's a lot more complex that that.
Depending on which Vaccine you have had, and when you had it, your likely immunity will vary. For example, your first dose gives you a likely 76% efficacy rising to 82% after the second dose and time for that to take effect. This means that you are a lot less likely to get Covid than if you had not been vaccinated, but you can still get it.

If you have been immunised and you *do* get Covid, then you have another bonus which is that your body is already primed for it, so in most cases you will get a much milder infection than had you not been immunised.

But, the majority of people who have had serious hospitalisation have had co-morbidities. In other words, they were already ill with something else. This can alter how they are able to respond to infection. Some people were just unlucky and there is something in their genetic makeup which means that they have proved much more susceptible than others. We do know that obesity and breathing related illnesses (e.g. asthma) increase risk with Covid.

It may be that many people admitted to hospital with Covid, would have been admitted for something else anyway - due to age, comorbidities etc. 

Then we have another factor which is that Covid mutates. The immunisations were based on the first variants isolated. As Covid changes, it may be that newer strains such as the Delta or Lambda are not as well protected against. It could also be that they cause less or more likely damage.

A simpler way to put it is this:-

You can reduce your chances of becoming seriously ill with Covid by getting immunised and by taking reasonable safety measures such as wearing a mask when in an area with poor ventilation and many people - e.g. shops. Good air flow can really help, but you want to avoid inhaling other people's breath.

There is no 100% protection other than staying in your home, not having any visitors and creating an airlock and quarantine process for delivered goods.

At the moment the UK Government (unlike some other countries) is not trying to eradicate Covid, just to mitigate the effect and reduce the risk of death and serious illness. No-one knows whether this is the right approach. It is however a bit of an outlier compared to many other countries.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> Yes very good illustration. I'm highly numerate, but find it quite hard getting my mind around these sorts of numbers - and impossible to explain to anyone else



It is very counterintuitive.

Put it a different way. Start from the premise that vaccination is very effective, but not perfect.

Before vaccination, 100% of admissions were unvaccinated.

If we vaccinate *everyone* then as vaccination isn't perfect, *all*, 100% of admissions would be vaccinated.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> And when we have 100% vaccinated, then, given that no vaccine is perfect, 100% of the (very few) cases will be vaccinated.



We crossed!


----------



## lane (21 Jul 2021)

icowden said:


> It's a lot more complex that that.
> Depending on which Vaccine you have had, and when you had it, your likely immunity will vary. For example, your first dose gives you a likely 76% efficacy rising to 82% after the second dose and time for that to take effect. This means that you are a lot less likely to get Covid than if you had not been vaccinated, but you can still get it.
> 
> If you have been immunised and you *do* get Covid, then you have another bonus which is that your body is already primed for it, so in most cases you will get a much milder infection than had you not been immunised.
> ...



We were an outlier initially as well in March 2020. Lets hope this is now better thought through. However it is the same people making the decisions - politicians and and scientists - that f up first time.


----------



## DaveReading (21 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> A nice graphical illustration of why 40% vaccinated in hospital is, entirely counterintuitively, a good thing.



Bearing in mind, of course, that "40% vaccinated in hospital" means

40% of those in hospital with Covid have been vaccinated

and not

40% of those who have been vaccinated are in hospital

Some seem to be conflating the two scenarios.


----------



## mjr (21 Jul 2021)

icowden said:


> There is no 100% protection other than staying in your home, not having any visitors and creating an airlock and quarantine process for delivered goods.


I doubt even that is 100% from what I've read. "Five nines" 99.999% maybe.



> At the moment the UK Government (unlike some other countries) is not trying to eradicate Covid, just to mitigate the effect and reduce the risk of death and serious illness. No-one knows whether this is the right approach. It is however a bit of an outlier compared to many other countries.


I think that's far too kind. It seems like the policy is merely to keep serious illness below hospital capacity and deaths below politically toxic levels, motivated by some misconception that businesses prefer the uncertainty of high case numbers, consequent isolations and looming lockdown and rule change possibilities to the certainty of regulations and circuit breakers.


----------



## PK99 (21 Jul 2021)

icowden said:


> But, the majority of people who have had serious hospitalisation have had co-morbidities. .



I've avoided this as a discussion point for some time but...

Friends who are Senior Medics, in various hospital disciplines, tell me that: 


By far the majority of COVID ICU patients they have had have been obese to seriously obese. Not all, but most. 
In March 2020, an ICU consultant at one of the big London hospitals looked around at the patients in his unit and put himself on a diet, and lost 3 stones in short order.

Friend, who is a just-about-to-qualify medical student, is volunteering as part of her course at a multi-disciplinary Long Covid clinic. A very significant proportion, not all, of the patients presenting, have a very high BMI.

Now clearly, there are many who have been badly affected by COVID to whom the above does not apply - but I have been startled by the frankness of their advice on this issue.


----------



## PK99 (21 Jul 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Bearing in mind, of course, that "40% vaccinated in hospital" means
> 
> 40% of those in hospital with Covid have been vaccinated
> 
> ...



YES!

In particular, some journalists seem not to have appreciated the difference.


----------



## PK99 (21 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> I doubt even that is 100% from what I've read. "Five nines" 99.999% maybe.
> 
> 
> I think that's far too kind. It* seems *like the policy is merely to keep serious illness below hospital capacity and deaths below politically toxic levels, motivated by some misconception that businesses prefer the uncertainty of high case numbers, consequent isolations and looming lockdown and rule change possibilities to the certainty of regulations and circuit breakers.



"seems" doing heavy lifting again, it seems!

See, it is a useful shorthand!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (21 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> I've avoided this as a discussion point for some time but...
> 
> Friends who are Senior Medics, in various hospital disciplines, tell me that:
> 
> ...



Just from a quick google, no idea how authoritative, but point estimates for the obese of

49% more likely to be hospitalised
82% more likely to die

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41366-021-00771-z


----------



## lane (21 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> I've avoided this as a discussion point for some time but...
> 
> Friends who are Senior Medics, in various hospital disciplines, tell me that:
> 
> ...



It can't do any harm to share that. Probably about time I got on the scales!


----------



## lane (21 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> I doubt even that is 100% from what I've read. "Five nines" 99.999% maybe.
> 
> 
> I think that's far too kind. It seems like the policy is merely to keep serious illness below hospital capacity and deaths below politically toxic levels, motivated by some misconception that businesses prefer the uncertainty of high case numbers, consequent isolations and looming lockdown and rule change possibilities to the certainty of regulations and circuit breakers.



I don't think it's anything to do with businesses. It's what the backbench MPs prefer and what the Telegraph prefer. Also I don't think it is "seems" that is now the stated policy.


----------



## PK99 (21 Jul 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Just from a quick google, no idea how authoritative, but point estimates for the obese of
> 
> 49% more likely to be hospitalised
> 82% more likely to die
> ...



From that;

_Obesity has emerged as a key risk factor for COVID-19 outcomes [2], with excess ectopic fat accumulation associated with higher chronic sub-clinical inflammation, functional immunologic deficit and a pro-thrombotic state potentially explaining the higher rates of disseminated intravascular coagulation and thromboembolism in severe COVID-19 patients [3]. Frailty has also been identified as a potential risk factor for severe COVID-19 [4], with early research showing it to be a stronger predictor of COVID-19 mortality than either age or comorbidities [5]. However, the interaction between measures of obesity and frailty in the association with COVID-19 outcomes has not been investigated._

And, from elsewhere: obesity increases clotting risk - DVT & PE


----------



## mjr (21 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> "seems" doing heavy lifting again, it seems!
> 
> See, it is a useful shorthand!


No, it is lifting nothing. Once again, it introduces my opinion and nothing further is supported by it.

Please try to remember that my objection was to the first paragraph being an "it seems" followed by a misrepresentation that the rest of the post was supported by, IIRC. I do not seek to ban posting all "seems" opinions! Maybe this is too subtle for some, so try this: introducing your own opinion with "seems" is fine, but introducing someone else's as an "it seems" and then spending the rest of the post arguing against it is a waste of everyone's time.


----------



## mjr (21 Jul 2021)

France requiring a "health passport" for access to cultural venues containing 50+ people. From 1 August, it will also be needed to access cafes, bars and restaurants, even on terraces, planes, trains, hotels and shared facilities on campsites. The state train operator was surprised by the presidential announcement. (source: tv news this lunchtime)


----------



## icowden (21 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> France requiring a "health passport" for access to cultural venues containing 50+ people. From 1 August, it will also be needed to access cafes, bars and restaurants, even on terraces, planes, trains, hotels and shared facilities on campsites. The state train operator was surprised by the presidential announcement. (source: tv news this lunchtime)



It'll happen here too, just probably not by parliamentary dictat (although they have already done the nightclub thing). 
Want to go to the Theatre? Why should they let you in if you haven't been double jabbed if it risks their performances?

Want to go on holiday? Try getting health insurance without a double jab.
Want life insurance? It'll be expensive without a double jab.

etc 
etc


----------



## kingrollo (21 Jul 2021)

PK99 said:


> I've avoided this as a discussion point for some time but...
> 
> Friends who are Senior Medics, in various hospital disciplines, tell me that:
> 
> ...



Interesting. Maybe as aside but hasn't bmi been discredited as a health indicator ? - from memory it wasn't a good measure for people who had bulked up in the gym , they have a low fat % - but still score poor on BMI.

Theres also the deadly 'skinny fat' who are slightly built and sail though any BMI stats\measurements - but because of thin bones actually have a lot of fat !


----------



## DCLane (21 Jul 2021)

@kingrollo - SWMBO, who's a Registered Dietitan and Registered Nutritionist, uses both BMI and skin-fold thickness which gives a better body fat percentage.


----------



## Milzy (21 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Interesting. Maybe as aside but hasn't bmi been discredited as a health indicator ? - from memory it wasn't a good measure for people who had bulked up in the gym , they have a low fat % - but still score poor on BMI.
> 
> Theres also the deadly 'skinny fat' who are slightly built and sail though any BMI stats\measurements - but because of thin bones actually have a lot of fat !


The only 2 people I’ve known personally to have Covid bad are very over weight & one was in his 20’s. 
To catch it mild you’re unlucky & to have a bad case you’re very unlucky & to die you’re super unlucky. Not even the top scientists can predict how things will be at Christmas time. It’s just the new normal so we must get on with life & stop virtue signalling on social media.


----------



## Rocky (21 Jul 2021)

Milzy said:


> The only 2 people I’ve known personally to have Covid bad are very over weight & one was in his 20’s.
> To catch it mild you’re unlucky & to have a bad case you’re very unlucky & to die you’re super unlucky. Not even the top scientists can predict how things will be at Christmas time. It’s just the new normal so we must get on with life & stop virtue signalling on social media.


The only two people I know from my family who have died from Covid were thin, caught it in hospital while they were having an operation for something unrelated…..and sadly never came out. Yes, obesity is a risk factor (because of breathing problems) but thin people have died.


----------



## vickster (21 Jul 2021)

Age is a major risk factor too, and many older folks are not obese


----------



## vickster (21 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Interesting. Maybe as aside but hasn't bmi been discredited as a health indicator ? - from memory it wasn't a good measure for people who had bulked up in the gym , they have a low fat % - but still score poor on BMI.


Body builders don't make up the majority (or bulk) of those classified as obese


----------



## kingrollo (21 Jul 2021)

vickster said:


> Body builders don't make up the majority (or bulk) of those classified as obese


Of course not. They are just one group where BMI would give a misleading reading. Skinny but flabby being another.

The point of what I was saying is that these groups would poor BMI stats but be in good shape health-wise and vice versa for skinny fat.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Of course not. They are just one group where BMI would give a misleading reading. Skinny but flabby being another.
> 
> The point of what I was saying is that these groups would poor BMI stats but be in good shape health-wise and vice versa for skinny fat.


Whichever, the relationship between high BMI and severity of illness seems to show that BMI is a useful rough and ready guide, even with the outlying groups included.


----------



## Unkraut (21 Jul 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> BMI is a useful rough and ready guide


When I finally realised I needed to shed some weight, my BMI which was then about 82 kilos was a wake up call that much more had to go than the four or five I had envisaged! That would have left me significantly overweight despite fit through cycling.


----------



## neil_merseyside (21 Jul 2021)

Surely the only real outliers of BMI are heavily muscled types, certainly everyone I know (good friends) who are BMI 25+ (some 35-40) claim that BMI isn't a good guide to obesity are simply clutching at straws to defend themselves from being classed 'obese'. Most importantly every last one of them just over eats /drinks - I 'can put it away' but not in their league, obviously none of them now have the remotest possibility of working any of it it off after years of overeating. 
Incidentally none of them pass the half height as a waist measurement test either. 

I was once a BMI denier too, I still overfuel on occasions (so most weekends!) but I can get it back in the week using portion control, and lots of cycling/walking. 
My BMI is now 23 from something north of 28 (when realisation dawned), goal is to be around BMI 21.5 so smack in the middle of the range (so lose another 12lbs) but should that loss make me look ill, or stop me riding distance for lack of 'stamina/reserves' then I'll review my weight, but I suspect it will just get rid of my belly. I made excuses for unhealthy lifestyle for years - erm decades!


----------



## PK99 (21 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Interesting. Maybe as aside but hasn't bmi been discredited as a health indicator ? - from memory it wasn't a good measure for people who had bulked up in the gym , they have a low fat % - but still score poor on BMI.
> 
> Theres also the deadly 'skinny fat' who are slightly built and sail though any BMI stats\measurements - but because of thin bones actually have a lot of fat !



the complexity is why I have avoided sharing so far.

But advice from senior medics seemed worth sharing


----------



## lane (21 Jul 2021)

Dozens of Tory MPs defying speaker and refusing to use a mask


----------



## lane (21 Jul 2021)

Buck said:


> Why is she having to isolate?
> Wasn’t she wearing PPE? She didn’t have the NHS App switched on did she?
> 
> (sorry for the questions but she shouldn’t be having to isolate if IPC rules followed)



You may be correct and someone on a ride yesterday told me the same. She was wearing a mask. It is quite confusing and I haven't seen the communications she received - one via the app and one by email.

Unfortunately me telling Mrs Lane that I have received advice from a mate on a ride and someone on a cycling forum hasn't cut much ice😄

She seems determined to do the right thing - even if it's the wrong thing. As a result I had to cancel the dentist - which to be honest wasnt much of a disappointment.


----------



## midlife (21 Jul 2021)

If it came by email wouldn't that be from test and trace so legal requirement to isolate?


----------



## Ajax Bay (21 Jul 2021)

@Andy in Germany shared this on the pingdemic thread which merits sharing on here:





Edit: My subsequent comment on that thread was:
"Would be great if you could find a reference for those percentages, Andy - I think it's an excellent clear message, nevertheless.
Although I think the first pairing should be 100%, and use that as a reference for the rest.
Clearly if the bloke on the right is fully vaccinated the risk of infection drops by 80% (insert other figure as you wish).
This graphic works on the premise the bloke on the left is infected.
ETA: Given the subject of this thread I'd observe that the bloke on the right would be pinged regardless. Perhaps there should be an option on the app to indicate the owner of the phone is masked up (or not)."


----------



## Ajax Bay (21 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I can't be sure - but I thought I read a stat today that 40% of admissions are vaccinated people.???
> If true the whole effectiveness of the vaccine must be in doubt.
> 
> I seem to be hearing everyday that double jabbed people are going down with covid. Weren't we told it's effectiveness was around 90%.????


I can't believe you indulge in this sort of misinformation. You posts normally have validity.


kingrollo said:


> The hospital where I work there are rumours of redeployment of non clinical staff on a scale that will dwarf that of the first 2 waves.


Rumours. Bound to be some planning going on, for worst case scenarios. Look at the SPI-M modelling and look at the bounds of uncertainty (I shared one of these up thread).


slowmotion said:


> How many people with two jabs and the 2-3 weeks after the second (to build up further protection) actually end up on death's door in ICU? I don't have the numbers, but I do know that people drawing the conclusion that " jabs don't work" need to be quoted in the OED under "Stupidity".


Absolutely - I assume that @kingrollo was trying to get someone to make this point.


icowden said:


> For example, your first dose gives you a likely 76% efficacy rising to 82% after the second dose and time for that to take effect. This means that you are a lot less likely to get Covid than if you had not been vaccinated, but you can still get it.


A first dose of any vaccine will not give you 76% effectiveness against infection: more like 32%. But the second dose (14 days after) lifts that to 80+% right enough.
I pointed out that there would be a significant proportion on fully vaccinated in hospital and, tragically some would go on to die, about 6 weeks ago. Maths, innit. (@rt has effectively addressed this)


----------



## Buck (21 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> You may be correct and someone on a ride yesterday told me the same. She was wearing a mask. It is quite confusing and I haven't seen the communications she received - one via the app and one by email.
> 
> Unfortunately me telling Mrs Lane that I have received advice from a mate on a ride and someone on a cycling forum hasn't cut much ice😄
> 
> She seems determined to do the right thing - even if it's the wrong thing. As a result I had to cancel the dentist - which to be honest wasnt much of a disappointment.



Definitely better to be safe. 
If she was working at the time of the association with the infected person that that can be ignored as she should turn off the app when in work/volunteering.
https://faq.covid19.nhs.uk/article/KA-01100/en-us

i appreciate it’s easy for me to say but we ask all our teams to turn off/pause the app in work and if they get pinged they can legitimately discount it but if it is pinged when out of work that is different and must isolate/follow the guidance. 

hopefully she will stay symptom free and the 10 days will soon be up.


----------



## midlife (21 Jul 2021)

I was under the impression that the first dose gave quite good protection?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...high-levels-of-protection-from-the-first-dose


----------



## lane (21 Jul 2021)

midlife said:


> I was under the impression that the first dose gave quite good protection?
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...high-levels-of-protection-from-the-first-dose



I thought it was less now with the Delta variant.


----------



## midlife (21 Jul 2021)

It is but not sure it's down to 32%?


----------



## Unkraut (22 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Dozens of Tory MPs defying speaker and refusing to use a mask





roubaixtuesday said:


> So depressing to see the Conservative party dragging us down to Trump levels.


On a rare foray into the _Mail_, I noticed Hitchens still using the Danish study to justify not wearing face nappies masks. I thought this was from well over a year ago, and since then various studies have shown the efficacy of masks without making the claim they protect you absolutely, and making the point you have to wear them properly and not fiddle with them.

I've certainly heard 'experts' here talk about masks, and it is inconceivable to me that in the UK no-one has sensibly spelt out the benefits of using them in appropriate locations to dampen down the spread, neither exaggerating nor denying them.

What are these Tory MP's on to set such a bad example, seeing as they are in a relatively confined space in the Commons?


----------



## steve292 (22 Jul 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> We've had a lovely day Jim, we're going to take the money
> 
> *Sad bull noise, theme tune goes to minor key*


Wrong show. Bullseye was " Have a look at what you could have won"
Catchphrase was " say what you see"


----------



## Flick of the Elbow (22 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> @Andy in Germany shared this on the pingdemic thread which merits sharing on here:
> View attachment 600360


Sturgeon’s deputy FM shared the same graphic on Monday, has now accepted that it is discredited and has had to apologise and delete it.


----------



## mjr (22 Jul 2021)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Sturgeon’s deputy FM shared the same graphic on Monday, has now accepted that it is discredited and has had to apologise and delete it.
> View attachment 600382


It says unverified not discredited. Would you apologise and delete your unverified message?


----------



## mjr (22 Jul 2021)

This article suggests some governments held back on full info because of misconceptions about the public reacting to crises by panicking https://palladiummag.com/2021/07/15/the-myth-of-panic/

I think that is trying to justify the ostrich approach of Trump and friends, and it does not excuse the UK which is given as an example of a disproof 80 years ago... but it is a theory.


----------



## kingrollo (22 Jul 2021)

Pre covid I used to go to a fair whack of northern soul dances.

One was scheduled for this Saturday. But the local council has cancelled it due to "rising covid levels" - no to fussed tbh - but I am intrigued that the local council has such powers when the govt has said such events can go ahead ?


----------



## mjr (22 Jul 2021)

kingrollo said:


> But the local council has cancelled it due to "rising covid levels" - no to fussed tbh - but I am intrigued that the local council has such powers when the govt has said such events can go ahead ?


I suspect they are using existing powers over events under the Licensing Acts, which usually includes some local public health consideration as well as fire and police views. It may mean that the event's submitted plans weren't thought sufficient to avoid an outbreak when the population covid level is what it is, or it may be a general decision based on event size or type or whatever. It may have gone through a licensing panel or committee, either specifically or by them setting policy for officers to implement. Look for their agendas and minutes on your district council website if you want to check.


----------



## Johnno260 (22 Jul 2021)

Unkraut said:


> On a rare foray into the _Mail_, I noticed Hitchens still using the Danish study to justify not wearing face nappies masks. I thought this was from well over a year ago, and since then various studies have shown the efficacy of masks without making the claim they protect you absolutely, and making the point you have to wear them properly and not fiddle with them.
> 
> I've certainly heard 'experts' here talk about masks, and it is inconceivable to me that in the UK no-one has sensibly spelt out the benefits of using them in appropriate locations to dampen down the spread, neither exaggerating nor denying them.
> 
> What are these Tory MP's on to set such a bad example, seeing as they are in a relatively confined space in the Commons?



To many entitled idiots in the UK is why, I have been challenged in a store for wearing a "slave muzzle" when the guy said he would take it off my face for me, I kindly advised him what would happen to his arm if he tried that.


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## PaulB (22 Jul 2021)

I'm in both camps about mask wearing. A bit like cycling helmets really. 

Part of my job is to wear a surgical mask so I'm not unused to wearing them at all and I always do while in any enclosed public space but since Monday, I've noted more and more people without the masks and a lot are looking at mask-wearers challengingly. 

To wear a mask for long periods (or the same mask previously worn on the same day, maybe several times per day) has the obvious negative of you forming a bacteria trap right in front of your breathing-in organs. The moisture from your expelled breath will be absorbed by the fabric or the filling of the mask and this now being moist, will act as a trap for someone else's expelled bacteria, particularly from those going bare-faced. 

It's obvious that there are those who agree wholeheartedly with wearing and those equally adamant they shouldn't wear. It's foolish of those in authority to say 'you don't have to wear masks, but it's better if you do' because that won't be listened to by the anti-maskers. So the only way it will work is if it becomes mandatory and punishable by fines for those who refuse.


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## matticus (22 Jul 2021)

PaulB said:


> It's foolish of those in authority to say 'you don't have to wear masks, but it's better if you do' because that won't be listened to by the anti-maskers. So the only way it will work is if it becomes mandatory and punishable by fines for those who refuse.


Tomorrow will be my first train ride in the "_post Freedom Day era_". This is all now sinking in. A lot of people think masks are still mandantory on UK trains, but no, although the railways strongly encourage it, if you read their literature closely enough, there is no enforcement. A ridiculous situation; even though I'm on the fence about how fast we should relax control measures, this seems a bloody daft way of doing it.

Hey ho ...


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## lane (22 Jul 2021)

In a small shop yesterday all wearing masks including the two young workers. Petrol station said masks compulsory.

Not been challenged for wearing one which is probably just as well.


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## Flick of the Elbow (22 Jul 2021)

Supermarket shortages now being reported in Scotland, all thanks to the ludricous ‘freedom’ policy being followed by England


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## Mo1959 (22 Jul 2021)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Supermarket shortages now being reported in Scotland, all thanks to the ludricous ‘freedom’ policy being followed by England


Our supermarket has been low on lots of things with bare shelves for nearly two weeks now. Seems to be mostly shortage of delivery drivers at fault I think.


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## KnittyNorah (22 Jul 2021)

When a woman not wearing a mask yesterday came and sat directly opposite me, facing me less than a metre away, on an seat that had until Monday been taped off as 'not available for use,' _and_ on an otherwise-entirely empty bus, I immediately got up, moved away and sat down elsewhere. She challenged me as being 'frit' and I replied that far from being 'frit' I was merely expressing my preference for not sitting adjacent to total strangers who displayed bad manners and inappropriate proximity. The driver gave me a wink and a thumbs up, and when the rude specimen had got off, said that he would've loved to have said what I'd said but they weren't allowed to. He does have a thoroughly perspex-partitioned 'cubicle' and he said most people are still using contactless payment methods and masking.


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## lane (22 Jul 2021)

Well done. Don't think I would have been quite so polite.


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## KnittyNorah (22 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Well done. Don't think I would have been quite so polite.


I'm fairly sure an impolite reaction was the reaction she wanted, expected and was prepared for. I wasn't going to let her have the satisfaction of what she wanted; instead I think/hope I annoyed her because she didn't entirely understand what I had said, so she didn't know _how _to react!


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## Johnno260 (22 Jul 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> I'm fairly sure an impolite reaction was the reaction she wanted, expected and was prepared for. I wasn't going to let her have the satisfaction of what she wanted; instead I think/hope I annoyed her because she didn't entirely understand what I had said, so she didn't know _how _to react!



I find the ones like that are looking for a reaction, being polite about it throws them off their game.


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## KnittyNorah (22 Jul 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> I find the ones like that are looking for a reaction, being polite about it throws them off their game.



Yes - and what these morons forget is that we maskers have the advantage in detecting and judging the expression on their naked face. She probably just took note of my grey hair and walking stick - my face was completely hidden by mask and sunglasses - and thought I'd be an easy target. She neither looked nor sounded as if she was the sharpest knife in the cutlery drawer, tbf - and the expression on her face at my response was evidence of her puzzlement.


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## fossyant (22 Jul 2021)

Aldi and Iceland have been stocked fine, and most customers still wearing masks. 

Spotted one of the customers was bob the builder's wife (neighbour) and she wasn't wearing a mask (no surprise) and she was on her own and parked in the parent and child spot - one of these 'I do what I like' - both are a PITA on our street. she's obviously immune with 7 kids in the house (two have left).


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## icowden (22 Jul 2021)

fossyant said:


> Spotted one of the customers was bob the builder's wife (neighbour) and she wasn't wearing a mask (no surprise) and she was on her own and parked in the parent and child spot - one of these 'I do what I like' - both are a PITA on our street. she's obviously immune with 7 kids in the house (two have left).



Not wearing a mask does rather single you out as being a certain type of person IMHO. It's not a good look.


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## fossyant (22 Jul 2021)

icowden said:


> Not wearing a mask does rather single you out as being a certain type of person IMHO. It's not a good look.



I was quite surprised how many are still wearing them. Ideal in crowded areas.

Most shop staff are wearing them, and they are the ones who need looking after.


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## icowden (22 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> A first dose of any vaccine will not give you 76% effectiveness against infection: more like 32%. But the second dose (14 days after) lifts that to 80+% right enough.



Well Astrazeneca beg to differ.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-c...the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html



> The primary analysis of the Phase III clinical trials from the UK, Brazil and South Africa, published as a preprint in _The Lancet_ confirmed _COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca_ is safe and effective at preventing COVID-19, with no severe cases and no hospitalisations, more than 22 days after the first dose.
> 
> Results demonstrated vaccine efficacy of 76% (CI: 59% to 86%) after a first dose, with protection maintained to the second dose. With an inter-dose interval of 12 weeks or more, vaccine efficacy increased to 82% (CI: 63%, 92%).


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## oldwheels (22 Jul 2021)

fossyant said:


> Aldi and Iceland have been stocked fine, and most customers still wearing masks.
> 
> Spotted one of the customers was bob the builder's wife (neighbour) and she wasn't wearing a mask (no surprise) and she was on her own and parked in the parent and child spot - one of these 'I do what I like' - both are a PITA on our street. she's obviously immune with 7 kids in the house (two have left).


I am told that some park in these spots to have more so that room that their precious car is less likely to be hit by somebody opening a car door carelessly. That has certainly happened to me and the perpetrator denied it. 
I have a blue badge so I have more space anyway tho' I don't really need the space, just the proximity to the supermarket doorway.


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## mjr (22 Jul 2021)

icowden said:


> Well Astrazeneca beg to differ.
> 
> https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-c...the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html


Hi @icowden - I can't see the vaccine effectiveness in that analysis. Only the efficacy, which is usually higher. Can you tell me what link I'm failing to click or whatever, please?

Difference between efficacy and effectiveness explained at https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/what-difference-between-efficacy-and-effectiveness


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## mjr (22 Jul 2021)

PaulB said:


> To wear a mask for long periods (or the same mask previously worn on the same day, maybe several times per day) has the obvious negative of you forming a bacteria trap right in front of your breathing-in organs. The moisture from your expelled breath will be absorbed by the fabric or the filling of the mask and this now being moist, will act as a trap for someone else's expelled bacteria, particularly from those going bare-faced.


Is that an "obvious negative" or something that sounds scary but isn't? After all, there are over a hundred types of bacteria inside a typical adult mouth already. 

It sounds rather similar to the "Mask wearing causes bacterial pneumonia" myth from earlier in the pandemic, debunked at https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/...e-masks-cause-bacterial-pneumonia/4574295001/ among others.

And if someone is wearing masks for long periods each day, they maybe should look for other ways to reduce the risks, assuming that they are wearing them from need. Most people should probably still aim to avoid crowded, indoor, unventilated spaces as much as they can. So that leaves people like shop and factory workers who probably need whatever help they can get to increase ventilation or reduce crowding, as well as us shoppers and visitors to cover our mouths and noses while in their workspaces.



> It's obvious that there are those who agree wholeheartedly with wearing and those equally adamant they shouldn't wear. It's foolish of those in authority to say 'you don't have to wear masks, but it's better if you do' because that won't be listened to by the anti-maskers. So the only way it will work is if it becomes mandatory and punishable by fines for those who refuse.


I agree: totally foolish; and moreover, neglecting their duty to people who have to work in places like shops and factories.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Jul 2021)

icowden said:


> Well Astrazeneca beg to differ.
> https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-c...the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html


Think you need to do a bit better than a Feb 2021 Astra Zeneca press release based on the Phase 3 RCT trials Jul-Oct 2020 which offered estimates of efficacy, not effectiveness. And that was against the original 2020 'variant'. I'm afraid the vaccine has less effectiveness (still good) versus 'Alpha' and still less against Delta.
Here's a table of the SPI-M central scenario assumptions, which will be as accurate as they could make them and reflect central estimate reality. Personally I prefer the Warwick modelling and their figures: 34% and 82% against symptomatic infection. This is one reason why emphasis was placed on getting second jabs done: it offered a better dividend: 48% more (82-34) as opposed to a first dose benefit (to the population) of 34%.





https://assets.publishing.service.g...3510/S1287_SPI-M-O_Summary_Roadmap_step_4.pdf


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## icowden (22 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Hi @icowden - I can't see the vaccine effectiveness in that analysis. Only the efficacy, which is usually higher. Can you tell me what link I'm failing to click or whatever, please?
> 
> Difference between efficacy and effectiveness explained at https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/what-difference-between-efficacy-and-effectiveness



Hold on there soldier!

It was @Ajax Bay that challenged my post which stated *Efficacy *but chose to use the term *Effective*. As it appeared to be a direct rebuttal of the statistic I provided, I then provided the source of my statistic, albeit one provided by AZ themselves.


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## icowden (22 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Think you need to do a bit better than a Feb 2021 Astra Zeneca press release based on the Phase 3 RCT trials Jul-Oct 2020 which offered estimates of efficacy, not effectiveness. And that was against the original 2020 'variant'.



Sorry old bean, I thought you were refuting my Efficacy stat which was properly sourced. I don't disagree with your analysis and if you read my post it was an attempt to explain why people get admitted to hospital with Covid even if they have been vaccinated.

The Vaccine is going to become less and less effective as the virus mutates. Let's pop a September lockdown in our diary now shall we?


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## Buck (22 Jul 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> I'm fairly sure an impolite reaction was the reaction she wanted, expected and was prepared for. I wasn't going to let her have the satisfaction of what she wanted; instead I think/hope I annoyed her because she didn't entirely understand what I had said, so she didn't know _how _to react!




She is probably still trying to spell _proximity_ so the she can look it up in Google on her smartphone!


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## Buck (22 Jul 2021)

PaulB said:


> To wear a mask for long periods (or the same mask previously worn on the same day, maybe several times per day) has the obvious negative of you forming a bacteria trap right in front of your breathing-in organs. The moisture from your expelled breath will be absorbed by the fabric or the filling of the mask and this now being moist, will act as a trap for someone else's expelled bacteria, particularly from those going bare-faced.



I know it's not easy for everyone else especially where they are wearing face coverings rather than masks but the NHS IPC guidance on PPE, specifically surgical mask wearing, is for each mask to be "sessional" i.e max half a day with more frequent changes should the mask become uncomfortable (i.e. damp) or otherwise damaged.The thinking behind the change frequency was to stop people not wearing them due to them being uncomfortable etc.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Jul 2021)

icowden said:


> For example, your first dose gives you a likely 76% efficacy rising to 82% after the second dose and time for that to take effect.
> 
> @Ajax Bay that challenged my post which stated *Efficacy *but chose to use the term *Effective*. As it appeared to be a direct rebuttal of the statistic I provided, I then provided the source of my statistic, albeit one provided by AZ themselves.


Well since you wish to nit-pick, a first dose doesn't "give you efficacy", the vaccine dose has a protection efficacy rate (I note the AZ press release doesn't say efficacy against what (symptomatic illness?). But efficacy rates estimated in 2020 trials are completely OBE (so why quote them?), and real world effectiveness is the best measure. So 76% is not "likely" it's just wrong - except as an example, I suppose, but why not say 99%.
Here's the Lancet paper (8 Dec 2020) where the RCT trial results are reported: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32623-4/fulltext
"Oxford/AZ vaccine efficacy for more than 14 days after the second dose in the standard dose (SD)/SD cohort was 62·1% [against symptomatic infection]."
Beware of press releases. Published peer-reviewed papers are far more reliable.
Of course we now know that the efficacy estimates were at variance with real life effectiveness.
Here's an even more up-to-date study (today): reported here (with link to NEJM): https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/955207


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## Johnno260 (22 Jul 2021)

Apart from that guy the other day my only other encounter with an unmasked was someone reaching over me to grab some milk, even outside of Covid times it would’ve annoyed me as one he was so close I thought he was about to proposition me, and the fact I could smell he had onions and sausages for lunch! lol


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## shep (22 Jul 2021)

I couldn't care less who wears what and certainly wouldn't comment on someone wearing a mask, as I wouldn't expect anyone to comment on me not wearing one. 
It works both ways.


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## shep (22 Jul 2021)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Supermarket shortages now being reported in Scotland, all thanks to the ludricous ‘freedom’ policy being followed by England


How does not wearing a mask from 3 days ago create supermarket shortages then?


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## mjr (22 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> How does not wearing a mask from 3 days ago create supermarket shortages then?


Because, as you know, masklessness and so on was rife from Boris's announcement on the 12th, followed by surging cases, followed by lots of people quarantining.


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## shep (22 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Because, as you know, masklessness and so on was rife from Boris's announcement on the 12th, followed by surging cases, followed by lots of people quarantining.




In 3 days the country has ground to a halt due to everyone suddenly getting Covid, taking a test that's proved positive and then been in contact with that many people the food has failed to get on the shelves?

Wow!

Can't really complain I suppose, that's what it was designed for.


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## al78 (22 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> In 3 days the country has ground to a halt due to everyone suddenly getting Covid, taking a test that's proved positive and then been in contact with that many people the food has failed to get on the shelves?
> 
> Wow!
> 
> Can't really complain I suppose, that's what it was designed for.



Which country is that? Certainly not the UK, nothing has ground to a halt in my region nor where any of my family live. Shops are open and public transport is operational.


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## Flick of the Elbow (22 Jul 2021)

Hopefully this will help keeping the UK food distribution system operational during England’s folly.
UK food workers to be exempt from Covid isolation https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57937342


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## midlife (22 Jul 2021)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Hopefully this will help keeping the UK food distribution system operational during England’s folly.
> UK food workers to be exempt from Covid isolation https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57937342



No mention of the NHS though....


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## Buck (22 Jul 2021)

NHS is covered already….


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## mjr (22 Jul 2021)

77% of factories currently limited by workers self-isolated, according to Make UK spokesman on Newsnight a few minutes ago.


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## icowden (23 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Well since you wish to nit-pick...



Who said I wanted to nit pick? You challenged my stat, I provided the source. None of this is relevant as the thrust of my post was about the reason that you can still end up in hospital with Covid when immunised. Nothing you have said contradicts that.

Wood? Trees?


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## shep (23 Jul 2021)

al78 said:


> Which country is that? Certainly not the UK, nothing has ground to a halt in my region nor where any of my family live. Shops are open and public transport is operational.


I assume the fella blaming Boris was referring to the UK?


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## mjr (23 Jul 2021)

al78 said:


> Which country is that? Certainly not the UK, nothing has ground to a halt in my region nor where any of my family live. Shops are open and public transport is operational.


Shops here are open but there's not much in them...


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jul 2021)

From the gov.uk dashboard
An optimist would see a peak in the making.




https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
Admissions will peak 28 Jul.


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## Buck (23 Jul 2021)

...or a temporary dip before a secondary peak? To review mid-August!


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## mjr (23 Jul 2021)

The Latitude music festival starts today, with 40'000 people (plus whoever pushes in Euros-style?), called a "test event" but no results expected soon enough to affect other events, taking place following the recent surge in cases.

Over in Belgium, Pukkelpop with 60'000 people next month has just been postponed for another year, as the area around Brussels is again moved up to "red zone".

Very different approaches?

Italy will be joining France in requiring an EU covid green pass for lots of social situations like cafes and bars, but part-vaccinated people will be allowed to pass from first dose plus 14 days, at least at first.

Bit of a screw up in Malta with them refusing to accept Irish vaccination certificates and quarantining some tourists. https://www.thejournal.ie/malta-irish-vaccine-5501132-Jul2021/


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## mjr (23 Jul 2021)

Mayor of Great Yarmouth suspended for visiting various places and a pharmacy instead of isolating after her husband tested positive: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-57940617


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jul 2021)

Buck said:


> ...or a temporary dip before a secondary the main peak? To review mid-August!


FTFY
Could be. It is probably wise to treat the leading edge data as a bit more provisional than normal. A peak this soon would be completely at odds with the modelling, so I fear you are right @Buck. Think we'll know before mid-August.
Today's cases reported came in another 10% down and the case doubling rate is now flat or into decay (ie halving rate). Bit surprised this doesn't seem to be reported.
Perhaps we can see the fall off from the footie aftermaths of increased virus transmission opportunity.
One would expect an increase in the effective R number with relaxation of most restrictions on 19 Jul and might expect that to show very soon, countered by the seriously hot weather (most of UK) effect.
A pessimistic interpretation would be that lag in the testing system is going up as a result of both rising cases and the rising number of isolation orders and that this is contributing to apparent decay.
Many more are gaining immunity by the nasal as opposed to intramuscular route: A measly 43k received their first jab whereas 73K (two times the positive test number (rule of thumb, based on ONS antibody survey)) were infected yesterday.


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## midlife (23 Jul 2021)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57942217

Drop in cases has been reported but suggests caution. Our place not planning on admissions dropping any time soon.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jul 2021)

midlife said:


> Our place not planning on admissions dropping any time soon.


UK hospital admissions have been going up for the last month pretty steadily at about 150 per week (heterogeneously across the UK, of course). Admissions will peak 10 days after the cases peak. Latest admission data was 870 on 19 Jul. Makes sense to plan for worst case but consider the range of uncertainty: a optimistic estimate of the peak (if the cases have peaked on 18 Jul) is ~1100; next week.
So many confounding factors.


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## Bazzer (23 Jul 2021)

Elective surgery in Liverpool now cancelled due to the rise in C19 cases. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-57946235


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## Low Gear Guy (23 Jul 2021)

The drop in reported cases may be related to English school holidays and the end of regular school based testing. Many people are also on planned annual leave and are not testing for work.


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## lane (23 Jul 2021)

It also seems quite likely that the full impact of re opening has yet to work through. As much as I would like cases to be on a sustained downward trajectory I would be amazed if they are. I fear we have (far) worse to come before things get better almost inevitably.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jul 2021)

Low Gear Guy said:


> The drop in reported cases may be related to English school holidays and the end of regular school based testing.


English schools mostly broke up for the summer today (23 Jun edit Jul VMT @c33) so the chances of the reduction in England being "related to English school holidays" requires time travel. The rate in England seemed to start falling earlier this week. As an aside, my children carried out LFTs twice this week and I think that's typical across the English school student population.
However let me transfer that thought to Scotland. It's reasonable to think that the Scottish exponential decay in case rates was beneficially affected by the end of school term in Scotland (Fri 25 Jun) and the truncated Scotland run in the Euros (last match 22 Jun) will also have ended footie socialising transmission activity. Cases peaked in Scotland on 30 Jun and hospital admissions peaked on about 10 Jul (the expected 10 days later - see my post above). Hospital occupancy peaked on 19 Jul (the expected 9 days later) edit and UK hospital occupancy peaked on the same day as UK deaths peaked (in January). Scottish daily death (with or of COVID-19) figures are so low that the noise to signal ratio is too great.
Interesting, eh?


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## classic33 (23 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> English schools mostly broke up for the summer* today (23 Jun) *so the chances of the reduction in England being "related to English school holidays" requires time travel. The rate in England seemed to start falling earlier this week. As an aside, my children carried out LFTs twice this week and I think that's typical across the English school student population.
> However let me transfer that thought to Scotland. It's reasonable to think that the Scottish exponential decay in case rates was beneficially affected by the end of school term in Scotland (Fri 25 Jun) and the truncated Scotland run in the Euros (last match 22 Jun) will also have ended footie socialising transmission activity. Cases peaked in Scotland on 30 Jun and hospital admissions peaked on about 10 Jul (the expected 10 days later - see my post above). Hospital occupancy peaked on 19 Jul (the expected 9 days later).
> Interesting, eh?


A month ago, it's July now.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jul 2021)

icowden said:


> the thrust of my post was about the reason that you can still end up in hospital with Covid when immunised.


We agree Cowie.
I shared this insight (from one of the SAGE papers) in April.
"Modelling (considered by UK's SAGE fed in by SPI-M) suggests that in UK in the next hopefully suppressed wave# (wavelet) of those who tragically succumb (having had a positive test within 28 days) there will be *more who have received both doses of vaccine *(+7 days before positive test) *than deaths of people who have not been vaccinated*. This is based on a function of the IFR for the older (fully vaccinated) cohort versus a much younger (no underlying conditions) cohort (eg under 30s) and the protection from disease afforded by the various vaccines (90% protected = 10% not protected). What's the take-away? People need to manage the (albeit low and decreasing in UK) risk to themselves and consider, for summer 2021 at this stage, whether there are situations/environments and social behaviours they could choose to eschew without much sacrifice."


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## Bromptonaut (23 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> *English schools mostly broke up for the summer today (23 Jun) *so the chances of the reduction in England being "related to English school holidays" requires time travel.



The bolded bit,, assuming you mean 23 July, is a bit off beam.

Some places like Leicester finished a fortnight ago. Many others finished last Friday. The local comp here finished at lunchtime on Tue 20/07.

The stragglers finished today .


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## deptfordmarmoset (23 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> English schools mostly broke up for the summer today (23 Jun) so the chances of the reduction in England being "related to English school holidays" requires time travel. The rate in England seemed to start falling earlier this week. As an aside, my children carried out LFTs twice this week and I think that's typical across the English school student population.
> However let me transfer that thought to Scotland. It's reasonable to think that the Scottish exponential decay in case rates was beneficially affected by the end of school term in Scotland (Fri 25 Jun) and the truncated Scotland run in the Euros (last match 22 Jun) will also have ended footie socialising transmission activity. Cases peaked in Scotland on 30 Jun and hospital admissions peaked on about 10 Jul (the expected 10 days later - see my post above). Hospital occupancy peaked on 19 Jul (the expected 9 days later).
> Interesting, eh?


So, Euros surge to be followed by ''Freedom'' surge, if I read you correctly.


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## Ajax Bay (24 Jul 2021)

In England the adverse effect of the footie, from a virus transmission PoV, has been and gone (perhaps hence the stalling of the English daily case rate). We might expect the end of term effect to have progressively kicked in too (I have not trawled round the country checking end of terms) but a substantial proportion were still at school this week. The effect of course is a combo of (assumed) less teenage interaction/transmission and less testing - look at the spike of testing numbers around 8 Mar and 12 Apr. I note there's no sign in the data of any drop in testing so far this month (so earlier end of school terms, noted by @Bromptonaut ^^, have not had that effect, apparently).
As for New Cross's furry creature's soi disant "Freedom surge", I reckon that will just slow the decay ie the drop in case numbers will have a gentler gradient. The next week will reveal all much.
Personally, I'm just back from a hilly ride to an East Devon valley pub breakfast, in company. Bit of drizzle on the way back.


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## lane (24 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> English schools mostly broke up for the summer today (23 Jun edit Jul VMT @c33) so the chances of the reduction in England being "related to English school holidays" requires time travel. The rate in England seemed to start falling earlier this week. As an aside, my children carried out LFTs twice this week and I think that's typical across the English school student population.
> However let me transfer that thought to Scotland. It's reasonable to think that the Scottish exponential decay in case rates was beneficially affected by the end of school term in Scotland (Fri 25 Jun) and the truncated Scotland run in the Euros (last match 22 Jun) will also have ended footie socialising transmission activity. Cases peaked in Scotland on 30 Jun and hospital admissions peaked on about 10 Jul (the expected 10 days later - see my post above). Hospital occupancy peaked on 19 Jul (the expected 9 days later) edit and UK hospital occupancy peaked on the same day as UK deaths peaked (in January). Scottish daily death (with or of COVID-19) figures are so low that the noise to signal ratio is too great.
> Interesting, eh?



Lots of school broke up before the 23rd July.


Ajax Bay said:


> In England the adverse effect of the footie, from a virus transmission PoV, has been and gone (perhaps hence the stalling of the English daily case rate). We might expect the end of term effect to have progressively kicked in too (I have not trawled round the country checking end of terms) but a substantial proportion were still at school this week. The effect of course is a combo of (assumed) less teenage interaction/transmission and less testing - look at the spike of testing numbers around 8 Mar and 12 Apr. I note there's no sign in the data of any drop in testing so far this month (so earlier end of school terms, noted by @Bromptonaut ^^, have not had that effect, apparently).
> As for New Cross's furry creature's soi disant "Freedom surge", I reckon that will just slow the decay ie the drop in case numbers will have a gentler gradient. The next week will reveal all much.
> Personally, I'm just back from a hilly ride to an East Devon valley pub breakfast, in company. Bit of drizzle on the way back.



Hope you are correct. Experts currently seem more guarded.


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## DaveReading (24 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> In England the adverse effect of the footie, from a virus transmission PoV, has been and gone



That's not how it works, unless you're suggesting that those infected in the football crowds didn't go on to infect others, who then went on to infect ...


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## Milzy (25 Jul 2021)

7,800,000,000 world population March 2020. We are saying we’ve had 4.1 million Covid deaths. 
As a planet we should be proud of so much sacrifice to save so few. We have learnt we can live a better healthier greener way of life too but us humans will selfishly go back to the way we were before.


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## mjr (25 Jul 2021)

Milzy said:


> 7,800,000,000 world population March 2020. We are saying we’ve had 4.1 million Covid deaths.
> As a planet we should be proud of so much sacrifice to save so few. We have learnt we can live a better healthier greener way of life too but us humans will selfishly go back to the way we were before.


Not disagreeing with the ending but how few do you think we saved, noting this isn't over yet?


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## Milzy (25 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Not disagreeing with the ending but how few do you think we saved, noting this isn't over yet?


For many of us it’s over as we’ve accepted it just the same as flu killing X amount a year. Some get flu jabs & others won’t. The world could do with a billion less humans on the surface really.


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## Adam4868 (25 Jul 2021)

Well I can't decide if good or bad...Blackpool is the busiest ive seen it as far as I remember at least in the last 10 years ! Good for business I guess.Where I'm working at the Royal Mail there's nearly as many off sick as at work 
I'm not sure I can see this ending well.


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## KnittyNorah (25 Jul 2021)

Milzy said:


> The world could do with a billion less humans on the surface really.



While that is undoubtedly so, when push comes to shove, are you going to be one of those volunteering yourself and your own loved ones? After all, most people contribute to that very overpopulation now being remarked about ...


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## Milzy (25 Jul 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> While that is undoubtedly so, when push comes to shove, are you going to be one of those volunteering yourself and your own loved ones? After all, most people contribute to that very overpopulation now being remarked about ...


No, I couldn’t push the button. Nature on the other hand would.


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## lane (25 Jul 2021)

Milzy said:


> 7,800,000,000 world population March 2020. We are saying we’ve had 4.1 million Covid deaths.
> As a planet we should be proud of so much sacrifice to save so few. We have learnt we can live a better healthier greener way of life too but us humans will selfishly go back to the way we were before.



It's a lot more than 4.1 million. That many excess deaths in India alone.


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## lane (25 Jul 2021)

Milzy said:


> For many of us it’s over as we’ve accepted it just the same as flu killing X amount a year. Some get flu jabs & others won’t. The world could do with a billion less humans on the surface really.


Elon Musk disagrees with you. He is worried about population collapse.


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## Milzy (25 Jul 2021)

lane said:


> Elon Musk disagrees with you. He is worried about population collapse.


People like him would do because they’re happy to make more money even though it’s at the planets expense.


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## Ajax Bay (25 Jul 2021)

Way off topic: Thought Musk was helping save the planet by making Tesla EVs.
Tesla's mission statement is " to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy."
Lithium a problem, but can't blame him/them for that, though.


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## deptfordmarmoset (25 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Way off topic: Thought Musk was helping save the planet by making Tesla EVs.
> Tesla's mission statement is " to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy."
> Lithium a problem, but can't blame him/them for that, though.


There must be tons of lithium just wandering around in the ionosphere to be worth spaffing tons of fossil fuel getting up there....

He should have taken up green lithium farming.


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## Ajax Bay (26 Jul 2021)

Bit surprised how little reaction there's been on here (gone remarkeably quiet) and generally to my identifying that peak cases in England occurred (sticking neck out here) on 19 Jul.
Completely disconnected with the day the Government randomly (?) chose to allow final and irreversible relaxation of most of the domestic restrictions. Why have changes to the lockdown restrictions in Scotland had so little adverse effect?
On UK experience, we can expect UK hospital admissions to peak this week - maybe at 1200 a day (7-day average) (cf 4232 a day on previous peak (9 Jan)).


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## classic33 (26 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Bit surprised how little reaction there's been on here (gone remarkeably quiet) and generally to my identifying that peak cases in England occurred (sticking neck out here) on 19 Jul.
> Completely disconnected with the day the Government randomly (?) chose to allow final and irreversible relaxation of most of the domestic restrictions. Why have changes to the lockdown restrictions in Scotland had so little adverse effect?
> On UK experience, we can expect UK hospital admissions to peak this week - maybe at 1200 a day (7-day average) (cf 4232 a day on previous peak (9 Jan)).


Two local, to me, testing stations, were closed the week before. How many others were closed elsewhere?
Schools started finishing the week before.

How would fewer tests being done alter the figures. As for the peak, that is yet to come.*

*My opinion only.


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## mjr (26 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Bit surprised how little reaction there's been on here (gone remarkeably quiet) and generally to my identifying that peak cases in England occurred (sticking neck out here) on 19 Jul.


I am quiet because I hope you are correct but you have called it early from my reading of the graphs.

What I am seeing in my borough, including councillors going to concerts in unventilated old buildings and defending that as risk-free, looks like a covid super spreading shoot show, which I struggle to believe the summer/UV effect will overcome. But I hope you are correct.


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## mjr (26 Jul 2021)

New outbreak of 80ish cases in a Lille nightclub. https://www.20minutes.fr/lille/3090383-20210724-lille-78-clients-boite-nuit-positifs-covid-19

This follows clusters of 44 and 68 cases announced Friday https://www.20minutes.fr/sante/3089...personnes-positives-apres-cluster-discotheque and 80 earlier in the week. https://www.20minutes.fr/bordeaux/3...soirees-discotheque-2000-personnes-contactees

Each outbreak has led to thousands of contacts isolating.

Still some way to go to match the Dutch 165 case nightclub outbreak. https://www.independent.ie/world-ne...lub-that-required-negative-test-40618307.html

Just as well England hasn't allowed indoor nightclu... Oh, wait... Still reckon it has definitely peaked?


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## roubaixtuesday (26 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Bit surprised how little reaction there's been on here (gone remarkeably quiet) and generally to my identifying that peak cases in England occurred (sticking neck out here) on 19 Jul



TBH I hadn't noticed you did.

But seeing as you raise the issue now, one random "predicting" the peak isn't very interesting, and we can't be certain we have even peaked (though given the sheer size of the falls, it seems very likely to me).

The reality is that there is uncertainty, in terms of human behaviour, vaccine efficacy and the fundamentals of the delta virus which can affect the size and timing of the peak to a massive extent within relatively small changes in those parameters.

Anyone who looks at this and claims confidence in a specific, precise prediction is overconfident, in my view.


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## aferris2 (26 Jul 2021)

Daughter tested positive after a night out with friends. Wife and I went for a PCR test one week later and have both just received a NEGATIVE result. We are both double jabbed, daughter single jabbed.
Can't believe that we wouldn't have tested negative without vaccination as we are all living in the same house.


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## Bazzer (26 Jul 2021)

Text message from my GP surgery this morning:
"Our practices and your local A&E are struggling with demand, please support us by considering self-management, talking to a pharmacist, or use 111 online or via the phone. Help the NHS to help you."


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## classic33 (26 Jul 2021)

Bazzer said:


> Text message from my GP surgery this morning:
> "Our practices and your local A&E are struggling with demand, please support us by considering self-management, talking to a pharmacist, or use 111 online or via the phone. Help the NHS to help you."


Got a similarly worded message last week.


With regards the closure of testing stations, there's four(not two) closed locally.

What about the two new variants found in England within the last week. Lambda being one, which if we're using the Greek alphabet leaves Delta six behind.


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## lazybloke (27 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Bit surprised how little reaction there's been on here (gone remarkeably quiet) and generally to my identifying that peak cases in England occurred (sticking neck out here) on 19 Jul.
> Completely disconnected with the day the Government randomly (?) chose to allow final and irreversible relaxation of most of the domestic restrictions. Why have changes to the lockdown restrictions in Scotland had so little adverse effect?


Haven't been online much in recent days but had certainly noticed a reported drop in the headline rate of of positive tests. 

It feels too good to be true so I fear that the numbers are actually just showing a drop in lateral flow tests now that 12 million pupils are on their summer break. I'd believe a drop in infection rates amongst children, but how big a reduction I'm not sure. Random household testing might be particularly useful to determine if there really has been a peak.

Regarding Scotland specifically, schools finished there a month ago, so a detailed review of stats on https://gov.scot might give an indication of what we can now expect in the rest of the UK.


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## vickster (27 Jul 2021)

lazybloke said:


> Haven't been online much in recent days but had certainly noticed a reported drop in the headline rate of of positive tests.
> 
> It feels too good to be true so I fear that the numbers are actually just showing a drop in lateral flow tests now that 12 million pupils are on their summer break. I'd believe a drop in infection rates amongst children, but how big a reduction I'm not sure. Random household testing might be particularly useful to determine if there really has been a peak.


Fewer teenagers faking positive LFTs to skive off school?


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## deptfordmarmoset (27 Jul 2021)

vickster said:


> Fewer teenagers faking positive LFTs to skive off school?


More workers avoiding LFTs and disabling the app in order to avoid having to self-isolate?


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## Julia9054 (27 Jul 2021)

I guess the way to tell will be if hospital admissions continue to rise all summer whilst cases continue to fall.


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## Rocky (27 Jul 2021)

classic33 said:


> Once again, in English.


I wouldn’t bother reading it. It’s pure fantasy with no scientific basis.


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## classic33 (27 Jul 2021)

Rocky said:


> I wouldn’t bother reading it. It’s pure fantasy with no scientific basis.


It read like a piece from the Brothers Grimm. A translation might help.


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## roubaixtuesday (27 Jul 2021)

silva said:


> It's a weird story, this corona story. One with alot extremes.* I wonder what is gonna stop it.*



I think I know this one! Is it "longwinded incoherent comments without any scientific basis"?


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## SpokeyDokey (27 Jul 2021)

*Mod note:*

Instead of comments about the language used by someone, whose first language is probably not English, why not tacke the content as posted - after all that's what a debate is supposed to be isn't it?

Edit: substituted the word 'facts' for 'content'.


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## mjr (27 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> *Mod note:*
> 
> Instead of comments about the language used by someone, whose first language is probably not English, why not tacke the facts as posted - after all that's what a debate is supposed to be isn't it?


What facts, please?


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## SpokeyDokey (27 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> What facts, please?



You probably know exactly what I mean in my post but let's be precise and I will edit & substitute 'facts' with 'content'. 

Edit: done.


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## Johnno260 (27 Jul 2021)

Doing nothing is worse than doing something.

In the UK the past few weeks it's shown that vaccination works, high number test positive but deaths are low, hospital admissions are high in areas but the death rates aren't spiking with the positive tests.

Using the over 50 as an example I think these highlight the importance of vaccination.











No vaccine ever offers 100% immunity if you see/hear people making that claim or using it as anti vax evidence then it's a red flag and question that persons credibility.

As for the claim mutations create issues, they can but the core of the virus remains the same, and the vaccine will still offer protection, this is also something that can be addressed with boosters example: the seasonal flu booster.

The only conspiracy in any of this is what people stand to gain from false information spreading, see the London rally's this weekend all the speakers had a go fund me or paypal links.


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## mjr (27 Jul 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> You probably know exactly what I mean in my post but let's be precise and I will edit & substitute 'facts' with 'content'.
> 
> Edit: done.


"scams" would be more accurate but at least the mod note is not taking sides now.

They are widely-refuted false claims. What more is there to say? Why are they allowed yet another airing on CC?


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## Wobblers (29 Jul 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> FTFY
> Could be. It is probably wise to treat the leading edge data as a bit more provisional than normal. A peak this soon would be completely at odds with the modelling, so I fear you are right @Buck. Think we'll know before mid-August.
> Today's cases reported came in another 10% down and the case doubling rate is now flat or into decay (ie halving rate). Bit surprised this doesn't seem to be reported.
> Perhaps we can see the fall off from the footie aftermaths of increased virus transmission opportunity.
> ...



There is a remarkable correlation between the end of the Euros and drop in cases. Given incubation times (3-5 days for Delta), a fall a week after the final could be expected - and that's what we saw. I suspect the earlier falls seen in Scotland are due to their earlier exit from the Euros and the schools coming out at the end of June. This is a good thing.

It is not, however, cause to believe that the peak has already been crossed.

We must not ignore the characteristics of the Delta variant. It is much more infectious than Alpha, with an R0 of at least 6. The viral load of those infected with Delta is 1000 times higher than the original wild type strain. Doubtless this goes a long way to explaining its transmittability - which is significant in indoor situations. There is a documented case in Sydney where one single person at a party infected everyone else who wasn't infected. Indeed, Delta's high transmittability is the explanation as to why Australia has had - and still is having - so much difficulty in containing its current CV outbreak.

Given the ending of restrictions, and given Delta's high transmittability, I see no reason as to why cases will not rise - there is no mechanism to prevent this. Herd immunity requires a minimum 85% coverage through previous infection and/or vaccination. Currently, we're around 60-65%, [1] far short of the numbers required. I note that yesterday's daily infected figures showed a rise. Well, a single datum does not a trend make! - but the timing is right for a increase in infections as a result of the lifting of restrictions. I expect to see further increases. Nightclubs in particular are likely to be transmission hotspots, given they're notoriously crowded and inadequately ventilated. We've a very long way to go - even if vaccine escape variants don't appear.


[1] Assuming vaccination is 85% effective in preventing symptomatic illness ,and that asymptomatic infection in those vaccinated does not result in transmission.


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## mjr (29 Jul 2021)

First reports coming in of cases confirmed in people who were at the Latitude music festival last weekend. Accusations from a customer that "upon entry the organisers really weren't that strict about [the jab or negative test requirement]" and one local MP that "The constituent told me that while they were at Latitude they did not think proper safety protocols were being followed." https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/latitude-festival-goers-report-positive-covid-tests-8195046

Conversely, another local MP says "I don't predict a local spike which can be attributed to Latitude, as most festival goers stay on site" and Suffolk Public Health said no official "outbreak" had been declared at the county-level. So that's OK then?!?


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## lane (29 Jul 2021)

Hospitalizations running at 2% of confirmed cases. This is higher than hoped if I recall correctly when 1% was discussed. This will probably put the very upper limit that can be sustained at 200,000 cases a day before restrictions are re imposed. Clearly we are a long way from 200,000 at the moment let's hope we don't get there.


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## lane (29 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> First reports coming in of cases confirmed in people who were at the Latitude music festival last weekend. Accusations from a customer that "upon entry the organisers really weren't that strict about [the jab or negative test requirement]" and one local MP that "The constituent told me that while they were at Latitude they did not think proper safety protocols were being followed." https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/latitude-festival-goers-report-positive-covid-tests-8195046
> 
> Conversely, another local MP says "I don't predict a local spike which can be attributed to Latitude, as most festival goers stay on site" and Suffolk Public Health said no official "outbreak" had been declared at the county-level. So that's OK then?!?



I don't find any of that in the least surprising.


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## DaveReading (30 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> First reports coming in of cases confirmed in people who were at the Latitude music festival last weekend.



I wasn't aware that having listened to music rendered you immune from subsequent infection by Covid. Post hoc ergo propter hoc ?


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## PK99 (30 Jul 2021)

A little while ago I wondered out loud whether the threshold for Covid hospitalization was now lower than earlier in the pandemic. Replies from medics suggested not: Patients on Covid wards are just a sick as last year.

Reports (telegraph today) suggest the position is more complex: Number in hospital with covid is not the same as number admitted for/because of Covid

##
_One in four patients classed as a Covid hospitalisation is being treated for other reasons, official data reveal, prompting claims that the public has been misled.

For the first time, the NHS national stocktake establishes how many patients categorised as Covid hospitalisations had another primary cause of admission. The data shows that of 5,021 patients this week classed as hospitalised by Covid, 1,166 were admitted for other reasons. _
##

Early in the pandemic, it was widely reported that people were staying away for A&E and GPs with conditions that would have normally resulted in hospital admission.

It follows that since more people are now presenting with "other" conditions and being hospitalised and being tested there will be a greater proportion of asymptomatic &/or minor covid cases counted among the "covid hospitalisation"

It becomes even more complex when non-covid admissions are for conditions that might have been covid induced.

Goes to show that simply tracking raw/total numbers can be misleading.

Numbers are hard! Who knew?


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## mjr (30 Jul 2021)

Japan's government extends their state of emergency in time and area, insists no Olympic link but the chair of the Tokyo Medical Association warned yesterday that “People find it hard to think about self-restraint when we’re having this festival,” https://www.thejournal.ie/tokyo-emergency-covid-rates-5510080-Jul2021/


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## matticus (30 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Japan's government extends their state of emergency in time and area, insists no Olympic link but the chair of the Tokyo Medical Association warned yesterday that “People find it hard to think about self-restraint when we’re having this festival,” https://www.thejournal.ie/tokyo-emergency-covid-rates-5510080-Jul2021/


Looks a bit like being their equivalent of the Euros. All very safe and controlled in principle, _but _...


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## mjr (30 Jul 2021)

matticus said:


> Looks a bit like being their equivalent of the Euros. All very safe and controlled in principle, _but _...


Sports events, music festivals and cheap pubs: three places where people think they can't catch covid, from the looks of photos and many many many reports (and not just telephoto lens pics in gutter press articles).


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## DaveReading (30 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Sports events, music festivals and cheap pubs: three places where people think they can't catch covid, from the looks of photos and many many many reports (and not just telephoto lens pics in gutter press articles).



I suspect that many, if not most, of the people who think they can't catch Covid in the situations that you list think that they can't catch it anywhere.

And then there are the ones who don't think, full stop.


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## shep (30 Jul 2021)

DaveReading said:


> I suspect that many, if not most, of the people who think they can't catch Covid in the situations that you list think that they can't catch it anywhere.
> 
> And then there are the ones who don't think, full stop.


Or the one's who have had both jabs and think it's worth taking the risk in order to enjoy themselves?

Some may even think catching it doesn't automatically lead to permanent disablement or Death so not too bothered if they do get it.

Do you lot never get bored of agreeing with each other .


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## matticus (30 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Do you lot never get bored of agreeing with each other .


We'll agree with you too ....


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## lazybloke (30 Jul 2021)

The UK headline rate of detected infections keeps reducing (well, a small rise yesterday, but the graph suggests "peak infection" has clearly passed), - this means R should be below 1.
Yet the beeb are reporting 1.1-1.4 this week (down from 1.2-1.4 last week).
Inconsistent stats; at least one measure must be wrong. 

Not sure what to think of that yet. Has there been any more discussion/explanation of the reported sudden drop in infections? 










shep said:


> Do you lot never get bored of agreeing with each other .


I disagree that we all agree.


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## lane (30 Jul 2021)

shep said:


> Or the one's who have had both jabs and think it's worth taking the risk in order to enjoy themselves?
> 
> Some may even think catching it doesn't automatically lead to permanent disablement or Death so not too bothered if they do get it.
> 
> Do you lot never get bored of agreeing with each other .



I have had both jabs and take more "risk" than I would without it. At one time I thought when I was jabbed that would be the end of it - but it isn't and I still find myself risk assessing things and some things I would not do and other things I do, but am not entirely comfortable with. 

On the other hand I must be at much less risk than when I went to work each day un-jabbed.


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## mjr (30 Jul 2021)

lazybloke said:


> The UK headline rate of detected infections keeps reducing (well, a small rise yesterday, but the graph suggests "peak infection" has clearly passed), - this means R should be below 1.
> Yet the beeb are reporting 1.1-1.4 this week (down from 1.2-1.4 last week).
> Inconsistent stats; at least one measure must be wrong.


The daily reports went up two days in a row, not only yesterday (23511 on 27th, 27734 on 28th, 31117 on 29th). It's too soon to say whether that's just a reporting quirk because it'll take a few more days to get a complete picture by test date.

I don't think we can conclude that R has fallen below 1 immediately once the weekly case rate is falling. I suspect the models used to estimate R reflect that.

Rather than calling the stats "inconsistent", I feel the measure that must be wrong is your declaration that peak infection has clearly passed! If it was clear, the estimated R would be below 1.



> Not sure what to think of that yet. Has there been any more discussion/explanation of the reported sudden drop in infections?


I think the most frequently-suggested explanation of the drop is still the end of the Euro football tournament. There has also been a note of caution that we are only just starting to see the effect of the 19th July surrender.



> I disagree that we all agree.


I agree with that!


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## deptfordmarmoset (30 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> The daily reports went up two days in a row, not only yesterday (23511 on 27th, 27734 on 28th, 31117 on 29th). It's too soon to say whether that's just a reporting quirk because it'll take a few more days to get a complete picture by test date.
> 
> I don't think we can conclude that R has fallen below 1 immediately once the weekly case rate is falling. I suspect the models used to estimate R reflect that.
> 
> ...


The first 8 minutes of the weekly Zoe update are talked about in some detail. Zoe shows a roughly flat incidence of 60,000 (so an R of approximately 1) as opposed to the government's sharply falling figures. 

One possible reason is that people are evading diagnosis - fear of being pinged and told to self isolate when people want to go on holiday or to festivals, etc. 

Another is that schools had a cycle of testing and diagnosis which affected whole bubbles of kids, teachers and families and generated substantial numbers of positive tests. Now that summer holidays are here, that cycle has been broken and the number of tests has declined.

A third, discussed further on in the Zoe update, is that the government still has not updated the symptom list to match the delta variant. People think that they have flu or summer colds and do not get diagnosed as having covid.



>


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## markemark (30 Jul 2021)

…and that the ONS data covers the period of 2 weeks ago to 1 week ago, roughly when the published covid cases only started to drop. I suspect next weeks ONS data, which covers the week we’re now in, will show a drop.


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## deptfordmarmoset (30 Jul 2021)

markemark said:


> …and that the ONS data covers the period of 2 weeks ago to 1 week ago, roughly when the published covid cases only started to drop. I suspect next weeks ONS data, which covers the week we’re now in, will show a drop.


The question isn't so much whether they show a drop but why are they showing such a drop - 30% over 2 weeks. And, indirectly, whether the government figures reflect the real world.


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## Milzy (30 Jul 2021)

I know an obese guy get it. I thought this dude will be in hospital for a long time. He only had a week off work & is fine. I know an old obese guy positive. It took him 3 weeks to recover. 
I know a young guy who it took ages to properly recover.


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## deptfordmarmoset (30 Jul 2021)

Oh, I forgot to mention about the Zoe report above. They conducted a survey on the NHS Covid app. 700,000 respondents. Of those who downloaded the app - I can't remember the figure but it may have been 500,000 - 22% said that they had disabled/uninstalled it. That's a lot of people evading the ping.


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## mjr (30 Jul 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Oh, I forgot to mention about the Zoe report above. They conducted a survey on the NHS Covid app. 700,000 respondents. Of those who downloaded the app - I can't remember the figure but it may have been 500,000 - 22% said that they had disabled/uninstalled it. That's a lot of people evading the ping.


Disabled and uninstalled are very different things. People are told to disable it in various situations, such as medics at work or train drivers in cabs.

And that's if you think the pinger's guideline-ignoring proximity formula is realistic anyway.


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## deptfordmarmoset (31 Jul 2021)

mjr said:


> Disabled and uninstalled are very different things. People are told to disable it in various situations, such as medics at work or train drivers in cabs.
> 
> And that's if you think the pinger's guideline-ignoring proximity formula is realistic anyway.


The word used in the report was uninstalled but I added disabled because I suspect people who had permanently disabled the app were included in the figure.


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## silva (31 Jul 2021)

On 20 juli 53.9% had received second injection.
Infections started to rise exponential from 450 to 700 per M.
That near-linear vaccination trend just continued. 
And now, at 55.6% second injection, that explosive infection trend has converted to an even steeper drop.
A mere 1.7% extra vaccinated -it doesn't look like that vaccination trend had any effect on infection trend.
Conclusion is that vaccination trend didn't effect infection trend.
Likely, the antibody levels of the first vaccinated already waned from sterile down to again infectable.
And later on, again more sick, upto the point where the story started with.
Fresh cannon fodder available for the virus.
Governments hunting total lockdown 2, production stops, panicking people, dumped stocks, next crisis.
See, that's what they do since ages: creating boom and bust cycles. Panicking suchas willing to sell cheapskate to them, after euphorically purchasing high from them. Rinse and repeat.
I think that's all there is to say, about this pandemic.

Future will tell !


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## DaveReading (31 Jul 2021)

silva said:


> On 20 juli 53.9% had received second injection.
> Infections started to rise exponential from 450 to 700 per M.
> That near-linear vaccination trend just continued.
> And now, at 55.6% second injection, that explosive infection trend has converted to an even steeper drop.
> ...



No, conclusion is that you can't reach a conclusion without taking a bunch of other factors into account, which you haven't.


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## vickster (31 Jul 2021)

silva said:


> On 20 juli 53.9% had received second injection.
> Infections started to rise exponential from 450 to 700 per M.
> That near-linear vaccination trend just continued.
> And now, at 55.6% second injection, that explosive infection trend has converted to an even steeper drop.
> ...


What country are you talking about?


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## Ajax Bay (31 Jul 2021)

@silva May I suggest you review a few 100 pages of this thread to help you understand the various non linear and inversely non proportionate nature of the relationship between case rates and:

the proportion of the population vaccinated,
levels of immunity through prior infection,
differing effectiveness of the vaccine against various benchmarks (symptomatic illness, serious illness, worse),
differing effectiveness of the vaccine against various variants (ancestral strain, Alpha, Delta),
difference between just one or both doses,
varying transmissibility of those variants and the effect of vaccination thereon,
effect of NPIs,
heterogeneous nature of population,
seasonality effect.
No doubt several more I've failed to list - @DaveReading or others will fill in, if they think worth it.
Even less simple than oiling chains.


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## Ajax Bay (31 Jul 2021)

Note that in graph below the green is for the Alpha variant with an R0 of 4 whereas the central estimate of Delta's R0 is 6 (same as the polio 'grey' band (middle).
Note that the immunity percentage achieved is proportion of population vaccinated TIMES effectiveness of vaccine eg 0.7 x 80%.
Note that population of UK is 67M of which 53M are over 18 (80%) and eligible for vaccination. If the vaccine uptake is (averaged over adult population) 90% by (say) end August, and of the unvaccinated a quarter have immunity from previous infection, progress towards HIT will sit at (roughly) 66%: we need 82% (central estimate). Implies enduring NPIs will be needed to keep Reff below 1 and cases continuing to drop, in the autumn. Fourth wave shows on several of the models.





By Cmglee - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=103529223


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## mjr (1 Aug 2021)

vickster said:


> What country are you talking about?


I guess a Neerlando- or Germanophonic one, from "juli" there.


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## Ajax Bay (1 Aug 2021)

shep said:


> Let's face it we're all probably going to get it at some time, just like flu, hopefully once jabbed we're not going to be seriously ill.


 I think stats suggest that, in the future in UK, more people (vaccinated against COVID-19 and flu) will get seriously ill and die of flu than of COVID-19. But contemporary and post-pandemic behaviours may mean the incidence of symptomatic flu is much reduced.


classic33 said:


> Never had flu, or the flu jab for that matter. Bad colds, but no flu.


What's the threshold between 'bad cold' and influenza?


DaveReading said:


> Most people have never had flu and won't.


Dave - that's an interesting assertion. Where does that come from? Don't you think everyone will get some form of flu, with some symptoms maybe mild (and not recognised as flu by individual), though not every year?
In terms of behaviour I think going into work with mild flu symptoms or worse is going to be discouraged by work places / employers, and/or their peers, if not intrinsic motivation.


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## DaveReading (1 Aug 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Dave - that's an interesting assertion. Where does that come from? Don't you think everyone will get some form of flu, with some symptoms maybe mild (and not recognised as flu by individual), though not every year?



I don't have any stats that I can quote, but there is a huge difference, both qualitative and quantitative, between flu and even the worst of colds.

Many people who think they have flu are simply suffering from a bad cold. Those who really have flu are usually left in no doubt.


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## Edwardoka (1 Aug 2021)

DaveReading said:


> I don't have any stats that I can quote, but there is a huge difference, both qualitative and quantitative, between flu and even the worst of colds.
> 
> Many people who think they have flu are simply suffering from a bad cold. Those who really have flu are usually left in no doubt.


As a sickly chap who, before all this, used to regularly get stricken with manflu, I wonder if we shall see the emergence of a new virulent strain of cold... perhaps called manvid?


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## silva (1 Aug 2021)

vickster said:


> What country are you talking about?


Your country, this forums country: the UK.


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## Julia9054 (1 Aug 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> What's the threshold between 'bad cold' and influenza?


You are standing at the edge of a football field and you spot £20 blowing about in the middle. If you’ll go and get it, you’ve got a cold - if you won’t, it’s flu.


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## Chromatic (1 Aug 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> You are standing at the edge of a football field and you spot £20 blowing about in the middle. If you’ll go and get it, you’ve got a cold - if you won’t, it’s flu.



This is very similar to how a bloke I used to work with described what it was like when he had proper flu many years ago, he said something along the lines of that if there was a tenner dropped on the floor next to the bed he was in he would have left it rather than make the effort to get it.


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## silva (1 Aug 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> @silva May I suggest you review a few 100 pages of this thread to help you understand the various non linear and inversely non proportionate nature of the relationship between case rates and:
> 
> the proportion of the population vaccinated,
> levels of immunity through prior infection,
> ...


Don't throw books and libraries to me, throw them to government and its experts.
I stated this:
"A mere 1.7% extra vaccinated -it doesn't look like that vaccination trend had any effect on infection trend.
Conclusion is that vaccination trend didn't effect infection trend."
It's one of the growing amount indications that vaccination programs don't reduce infection trends.
I see 2 possible reasons (quite obvious but apparently politicians and their experts decided to look elsewhere to NOT see them):
- vaccination programs of whole populations (not just the parts vulnerable to covid-19) "reward" the mutations that escape the vaccines best, causing the latter to become dominant much faster (which is what we now see).
- vaccinating entire populations takes time. Time for mutations to spread and become dominant.

The governments changed their plan from (peak1) > flattening the curve to crushing the curve. It didn't help. Peak 2 arrived. Then they continued their "measures" with the promise "until vaccines available". 
These became available, yet they continued measurements to stop virus from spreading, alike they would be able to kill the last virus out there.
It all, once again, didn't work out. 
They should have limited vaccinations to the vulnerable people and protect those, while letting the subsequent virus mutations infect and make immune the healthy population part. Then, later on, the vulnerable people would be able to return to a more normal life, due to the natural broad and longer lasting immunity to ALL mutations inbetween.
But no, governments and its experts refused.
ALL vaccines that have been applied so far, were developed based on the original Wuhan strain.
18 months later, so many new mutations since. It's ridiculous upto criminal. Because this way they predraw a major simultaneous vaccines breakthrough by the virus, the entire story restarted, with again high numbers of victums and overloaded hospitals. 

Although, "overloaded" is not that true. It's just that they weren't used to working at 100% capacity - something that in the economy is the rule of the day. They're abit like luxe restaurants: they can give 10 people a very technical treatment, but 200 people they can't give a sandwich.

So one can now expect the worst: the vulnerable were vaccinated first, they should have stopped right there, they didn't. By the time their antibody levels dropped back to infectable and increasingly worsening covid-19, they will face mutations that their immune system acts on alike the very first time. Read: cytokine storms and a repeat of the beginning of the corona story.

The problem now is that politicians and experts don't like public seeing them fail big time.
So they will continue to take increasingly more extreme measures.
Be sure that at aboves breakthrough, they will again shut down companies and thus bring productions to a halt.
Causing another big crisis.Their latest reply was this: 
In the end, that's what they want, a boom and a bust, now and then. Someone that wants to sell high needs a sucker to buy it high, and vice versa one that wants to buy cheap, needs a sucker willing to sell cheap.
How do make that sucker do so: make them panic. Make them think the worst is yet to come.

Israel is quickly becoming school example 1 of above.
Why: it was about the first and fastest in vaccinating.
Good results: the amount severe covid-19 cases dropped with a factor 10.
But the amount infections is now rising at a rate steeper than those of the past 2 waves.
And vaccines producers now talk about third booster shots. And more. It's just lol.
Although they finally started to think about updating their vaccines. Only question is, how fast will they be, how fast will next vaccinations of entire populations be, AND how fast will the virus mutate further?

The neverending story, haha.

Makes me think, checked, but no, Velosolo still didn't receive new deliveries.
I'm now waiting since more than a year, on chainrings. It was the reason that I replaced the chainring bolts with standard bolts and nuts: to flip more easily my chainring to wear out the other side of the teeth as to prevent sharkfin teeth.
I wish I had ordered 10 instead of 1 end 2019, but I wasn't sure about the bolts and the mount frame clearance since changed crankset and different spider / different chainline.
It wasn't the virus that kept the active population away from production, governments forced shutdowns, transport bans and employee quarantines did.


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## mjr (2 Aug 2021)

Troops hit Sydney streets to help enforce its prolonged lockdown – https://www.thejournal.ie/troops-help-enforce-sydney-lockdown-5512811-Aug2021/

Their PM has set a target of 80% vaccination to end the rolling lockdowns. They currently have 14%. (The UK has about 73%.)


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## silva (2 Aug 2021)

There we have it:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3
The governments scientists now refuse even a 100% vaccination as condition to abandon the freedom restrictions.
Precisely for the reason I pointed out in my last post.
Remember how it started, back in 2020?
They hang a tasty root in front of the donkey, then walk to dictature.


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## classic33 (2 Aug 2021)

silva said:


> There we have it:
> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3
> The governments scientists now refuse even a 100% vaccination as condition to abandon the freedom restrictions.
> Precisely for the reason I pointed out in my last post.
> ...


Talk of a third jab isn't new. I know two who have appointments for their third, who got the appointment earlier this year(previously mentioned on here) for October this year.

I thought it all started in a "wet market", in China in 2019.
Or a lab in America in 2017, depending on which you want to believe.


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## mjr (2 Aug 2021)

silva said:


> There we have it:
> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3
> The governments scientists now refuse even a 100% vaccination as condition to abandon the freedom restrictions.


Can you show us the phrase in that link which you are interpreting in that way, please? "Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period" seems a long way from that, plus https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3#Aff1 makes it look like none of the authors are government scientists: two are from Institute of Science and Technology Austria, one from the Bank of Spain and one from University of Geneva.


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## mjr (2 Aug 2021)

silva said:


> The governments changed their plan from (peak1) > flattening the curve to crushing the curve. It didn't help. Peak 2 arrived. Then they continued their "measures" with the promise "until vaccines available".


Please can you link to any government speech containing such a promise?



> [...] Although, "overloaded" is not that true. It's just that they weren't used to working at 100% capacity - something that in the economy is the rule of the day. They're abit like luxe restaurants: they can give 10 people a very technical treatment, but 200 people they can't give a sandwich.


I am sure that's not generally true. Firstly, if a business runs at 100% all the time, it will be upsetting a lot of regular customers with queues or refusals and probably won't survive in the long term. If some businesses run close to 100% service capacity all the time, then there's probably not enough time for workers to restock and do other routine tasks, service quality will fall off and again it will start to upset and lose customers.

Secondly, safety-critical businesses aim to hit 100% almost never. If a restaurant hits 100%, the next customer gets queued or turned away, what a shame, never mind, as long as it doesn't happen enough to hurt the reputation. If something like a railway signalbox hits 100%, the automated failsafes kick in and the signaller's company will probably be paying for delayed trains. But with hospital intensive care, possibly the next "customer" dies before they can reach treatment. So even if you can say that hitting 100% at peak is a rule, there are plenty of exceptions and hospitals would be one, even commercially.


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## stowie (2 Aug 2021)

Well, this is quite something from the TV chap who does the nice Coast documentaries.



He certainly doesn't hold back on the tried and tested references to WWII.


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## PK99 (2 Aug 2021)

stowie said:


> Well, this is quite something from the TV chap who does the nice Coast documentaries.
> 
> 
> 
> He certainly doesn't hold back on the tried and tested references to WWII.




Perhaps cobblers are best advised to stick to thier last:







*Ultracrepidarian
Definition:* one who is presumptuous and offers advice or opinions beyond one’s sphere of knowledge

The meaning of this word comes from a story in antiquity, in which the famed Greek painter Apelles one day heard a cobbler criticizing the way he had rendered a foot in a painting. Apelles then said to the shoemaker something very cutting and witty about how he shouldn’t presume to judge beyond his station. The exact remark has, unfortunately, been lost in time, but since the Latin phrase _ultra crepidam_ means “beyond the sole,” we may imagine that Appeles used this, or something similar, in his rebuke. Hence, an _ultracrepidarian_ is one who, as a shoemaker might, goes “beyond the sole,” and offers advice on matters they perhaps should leave alone.


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## IaninSheffield (2 Aug 2021)

stowie said:


> Well, this is quite something from the TV chap who does the nice Coast documentaries.
> 
> 
> 
> He certainly doesn't hold back on the tried and tested references to WWII.



From a 'news' channel? How does such polemic constitute 'news' I wonder?


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## Chromatic (2 Aug 2021)

PK99 said:


> and offers advice on matters they perhaps should leave alone.



Internet forums would die!


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## Ajax Bay (2 Aug 2021)

silva said:


> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3
> The governments scientists now refuse even a 100% vaccination as condition to abandon the freedom restrictions.
> Precisely for the reason I pointed out in my last post.


As @mjr has said, you're making this up and suspect you haven't read the complete paper.
What was "the reason I pointed out in my last post" again, and what was it a reason for?


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## mjr (2 Aug 2021)

The ping app has nobbled crudely by changing the time limits, not the proximity formula. Now you won't be pinged if the other person was asymptomatic and they told the app of a positive test more than two days after your contact: https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health/fewer-will-be-pinged-by-covid-app-8205190

They've still done nothing to reduce the number of "close contacts" that are through walls and similar. Earlier today, my phone received a diary appointment by bluetooth from another phone two rooms away, at the other end of the building I was in. People in other parts of the same building, or in the next building, would be far closer than that.


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## classic33 (2 Aug 2021)

mjr said:


> The ping app has nobbled crudely by changing the time limits, not the proximity formula. Now you won't be pinged if the other person was asymptomatic and they told the app of a positive test more than two days after your contact: https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health/fewer-will-be-pinged-by-covid-app-8205190
> 
> They've still done nothing to reduce the number of "close contacts" that are through walls and similar. Earlier today, my phone received a diary appointment by bluetooth from another phone two rooms away, at the other end of the building I was in. People in other parts of the same building, or in the next building, would be far closer than that.


Wonder how many others also received the diary appointment.


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## Ajax Bay (3 Aug 2021)

Can anyone offer any suggestions as to why the case rate is falling when the numbers vaccinated daily rate is very low: so it cannot be a 'more people are getting vaccinated' effect (40k first jabs a day, 168k second jabs a day). And we should be seeing the adverse effect of the 19 July restrictions relaxation (a fortnight ago) by now, increasing the cases, whereas they seem to be continuing to fall (since 19 Jul ironically).
Hospital admissions are pretty flat (I haven't graphed it) - we can expect them to decrease, but slowly.
Clearly the high transmission levels among under 40 men until England was penalty shot out was a significant contribution to the 'exponential' rise (evidence: the gradual rise in the ratio of male:total cases then sudden collapse after the semi-final). This mirrored the effect in Scotland, albeit at the end of the group stage.
Has the end of term had that great a beneficial effect?
Is it the mid July heat wave?
Why doesn't this virus behave predictably?


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## markemark (3 Aug 2021)

…it ripped through the younger people who on the whole didn’t have vaccines yet and now these newly recovered with natural immunity along side the vaccinated are getting closer to herd immunity. Maybe.


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## alicat (3 Aug 2021)

Maybe fewer people are choosing to be tested. I think that the number of hospital admissions or ONS random tests will provide the most reliable indication of infection rates.


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## markemark (3 Aug 2021)

alicat said:


> Maybe fewer people are choosing to be tested. I think that the number of hospital admissions or ONS random tests will provide the most reliable indication of infection rates.


Hospital admissions has peaked and is now dropping.


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## deptfordmarmoset (3 Aug 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Can anyone offer any suggestions as to why the case rate is falling when the numbers vaccinated daily rate is very low: so it cannot be a 'more people are getting vaccinated' effect (40k first jabs a day, 168k second jabs a day). And we should be seeing the adverse effect of the 19 July restrictions relaxation (a fortnight ago) by now, increasing the cases, whereas they seem to be continuing to fall (since 19 Jul ironically).
> Hospital admissions are pretty flat (I haven't graphed it) - we can expect them to decrease, but slowly.
> Clearly the high transmission levels among under 40 men until England was penalty shot out was a significant contribution to the 'exponential' rise (evidence: the gradual rise in the ratio of male:total cases then sudden collapse after the semi-final). This mirrored the effect in Scotland, albeit at the end of the group stage.
> Has the end of term had that great a beneficial effect?
> ...


I posted possible causes a few days ago. 

Testing is currently low - around half the level of a few months ago. Fewer tests - fewer positive results. Schools ''bubbles'' were maintaining a cycle of testing - a positive case resulted in teachers, classmates and families having tests. A positive case now will affect little else other than the immediate family.

There has been no update on symptoms. Delta presents differently to earlier variants so people will not necessarily recognise the illness.

There are reasons for not getting tested - people want to go on holiday, or to festivals, etc. Or they have a financial need to keep on working. Diagnosis evasion.


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## alicat (3 Aug 2021)

markemark said:


> Hospital admissions has peaked and is now dropping.



One swallow doesn't make a summer.


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## deptfordmarmoset (3 Aug 2021)

alicat said:


> One swallow doesn't make a summer.


Government figures as of yesterday don't show a fall over the week. A slowing in the rate of increase, while good news, doesn't make a fall.


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## markemark (3 Aug 2021)

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk


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## lane (3 Aug 2021)

Excluding Euro impact maybe cases have been flat for a while now. That is backed up by symptom tracker and almost plusable from ONS data.


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## lazybloke (4 Aug 2021)

If 2021 is like 2020, new infections will reach a minimum during August and then start rising again.


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## vickster (4 Aug 2021)

lazybloke said:


> If 2021 is like 2020, new infections will reach a minimum during August and then start rising again.


Except now we have high levels of vaccination so hopefully it won’t be


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## Flick of the Elbow (4 Aug 2021)

Scottish schools go back in 2 weeks time, students start returning to Scottish universities 2 weeks after that. So we don’t have to wait long to see if we’re going to get a rerun of 2020.


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## lazybloke (4 Aug 2021)

vickster said:


> Except now we have high levels of vaccination so hopefully it won’t be


Yes, if there's an increase it will likely be in unvaccinated children first. The recent announcement of jabs to 16 and 17 Yr olds will help.

The impact on the NHS will be key.


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## vickster (4 Aug 2021)

lazybloke said:


> Yes, if there's an increase it will likely be in unvaccinated children first. The recent announcement of jabs to 16 and 17 Yr olds will help.
> 
> The impact on the NHS will be key.


More limited in terms of debilitating illness if it’s children according to the data


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## lane (4 Aug 2021)

vickster said:


> Except now we have high levels of vaccination so hopefully it won’t be



If the R is around 1 now, which seems likely, we can expect it to increase in the Autumn unless there is additional impact from the vaccinations - I would have thought that we are probably now seeing the majority of the impact of vaccinations with limited additional impact to come so would not be surprised to see some increase in R in the Autumn but hopefully not enough of an increase to require many additional restrictions.


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## Unkraut (4 Aug 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Can anyone offer any suggestions as to why the case rate is falling when the numbers vaccinated daily rate is very low:


There was comment here a couple of days ago that the rate may be being held down in the UK by the sheer numbers of people self-isolating, particularly when coupled with the high vaccination rate.


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## cookiemonster (4 Aug 2021)

View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mX5rXewKl_g


Neil Oliver gets his ass handed back to him by the always excellent Otto English.😄


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## silva (4 Aug 2021)

mjr said:


> Please can you link to any government speech containing such a promise?


Can you link the post where I said that?
Please refrain from straw men.
Politicians never tie themselves to unambiguous statements.
Talking about "the vaccin", was later last year what they replaced their previous talk with.
Please obey we're flattening the curve to not overload hospitals.
Please obey we're crushing the curve to not suffer a second wave.
Please obey the vaccine will arrive.
Please obey vaccination herd immunity will arrive at 70%.
Please obey we need 100% vaccination.
Remember the root hanging in front of the donkey?



mjr said:


> Firstly, if a business runs at 100% all the time, it will be upsetting a lot of regular customers with queues or refusals


Why? 
100 is the % at which the customers demand is met by available capacity.
What did you think it was?



mjr said:


> and probably won't survive in the long term.


Why not?
It's the opposite.
Less implies purchased machinery not being used.
Money, lost.



mjr said:


> If some businesses run close to 100% service capacity all the time, then there's probably not enough time for workers to restock and do other routine tasks, service quality will fall off and again it will start to upset and lose customers.


If that wasn't obvious, "production capacity", regardless nature of product.
Feel free to rename it to "service capacity" or whatever capacity / available resources, whether machinery and/or personell, whether physical labour or thinking about PLC program adjustments.



mjr said:


> Secondly, safety-critical businesses aim to hit 100% almost never.


What would make them different to other businesses?
A business spends money at production capacity.
A business receives money from customers.
The delta is named "profit" when latter is > than former.
And "loss" when the opposite.
And "break even" when equal, followed by an "ough!".



mjr said:


> If a restaurant hits 100%, the next customer gets queued or turned away, what a shame, never mind, as long as it doesn't happen enough to hurt the reputation.


If I enter a restaurant and no reaction on my demand for a meal, I go to another, and if repeatedly occurs, I cease to try.
Why would I be angry about that?
Why would the restaurant be?
It was my, and their choice.
Just like a marriage, and a divorce.
And anything in life.



mjr said:


> If something like a railway signalbox hits 100%, the automated failsafes kick in and the signaller's company will probably be paying for delayed trains.


Hey, it's the railway company that agreed with and paid for the signalbox (capacity).
It's named "contract".
Why would your "signaller's company" pay for delayed trains, if the capacity was contractually agreed?



mjr said:


> But with hospital intensive care, possibly the next "customer" dies before they can reach treatment. So even if you can say that hitting 100% at peak is a rule, there are plenty of exceptions and hospitals would be one, even commercially.


Imagine your railways train train 100% loaded.
And some passengers jump on the roof.
And they fall off and die.
What's the difference?
In a free market, supply and demand always move to eachother.
The price mechanism does that.
Imagine John, that wants to be SURE of immediate medical treatment, if and when needed.
They he will have to pay a higher price, because machinery and personell will have to be acquired, and held, standby. That is, sitting there, doing nothing. BOOOOORIING. They will have to play cards or so. Or hold some roomplants or pets, to fill the time.
But that's all no problem.
Why: because that's okay for John.
It's the price he's willing to pay, for the insurance.
Now, imagine John is forced to pay that price.


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## silva (4 Aug 2021)

Chicago, Lollapalooza
https://www.hln.be/buitenland/alsof...en-voor-stortvloed-aan-besmettingen~a75e10b3/


> Wie erbij wilde zijn, moest wel een bewijs kunnen voorleggen van volledige vaccinatie of een negatieve coronatest van maximaal 72 uur oud. Wie nog niet volledig gevaccineerd was, werd gevraagd om een mondmasker te dragen.


Google Translate:


> Those who wanted to be there had to be able to submit proof of full vaccination or a negative corona test of a maximum of 72 hours old. Those who had not yet been fully vaccinated were asked to wear a mouth mask.


It's unbelievable.
A vaccinated person is declared as safe for other people.
A not vaccinated as a danger.
And in this case, since requirement, even a TESTED (72 hours) person.
The vaccinated persons are free to spread.
Vaccinated persons are implicitly-declared as sterile.
Whether that vaccination was today minus incubation, or 6 months ago.
Whether the vaccinated person exhibited a robust immune reaction on the vaccine, or not.
Whether that reaction works as robust on all mutations as on the Wuhan based one of the vaccins.


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## classic33 (4 Aug 2021)

silva said:


> Can you link the post where I said that?
> Please refrain from straw men.
> Politicians never tie themselves to unambiguous statements.
> Talking about "the vaccin", was later last year what they replaced their previous talk with.
> ...


What point are you actually trying to make, as this reads as nonsense.


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## classic33 (4 Aug 2021)

silva said:


> Chicago, Lollapalooza
> https://www.hln.be/buitenland/alsof...en-voor-stortvloed-aan-besmettingen~a75e10b3/
> 
> Google Translate:
> ...



From the link you posted
_" As if coronavirus doesn't exist: immense crowd at Chicago music festival, experts fear a flood of infections
The four-day music festival Lollapalooza took place this weekend in the American city of Chicago. That attracted no less than 100,000 visitors a day and it seemed as if the corona virus was just a distant memory, despite the rising corona numbers in the United States. Images show how tens of thousands of people are packed closely together and there is hardly a mouth mask to be seen. Experts therefore fear that there will be an increase in the number of new infections in the coming weeks."_

Reads somewhat different to what you posted.


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## Craig the cyclist (4 Aug 2021)

🇨🇴 it's coming next people. 

Looking forward to the graphs on this one!


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## Ajax Bay (4 Aug 2021)

Go on, @Craig the cyclist ! Give us a clue: which graphs are you particularly looking forward to? Or is this a response to @silva's incoherent rant?
Here's a graph I made earlier:





https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
Since the peak on 16 Jul (at 47,905 by specimen date) testing has dropped 35% (1M to 650k), rather less than cases.


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## mjr (4 Aug 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Since the peak on 16 Jul (at 47,905 by specimen date) testing has dropped 35% (1M to 650k), rather less than cases.


It is unlikely to be a random 35% that have stopped testing, as others suggest. Be cautious.


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## Buck (4 Aug 2021)

Also, one person can/will account for more than one test. (I do min 2 per week as an example)


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## Craig the cyclist (4 Aug 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Go on, @Craig the cyclist ! Give us a clue: which graphs are you particularly looking forward to? Or is this a response to @silva's incoherent rant?
> Here's a graph I made earlier:
> View attachment 602667
> 
> ...



Keep your eye out for the Colombian variant, coming next....................... (and no, that isn't a joke!)


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## Milzy (4 Aug 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Keep your eye out for the Colombian variant, coming next....................... (and no, that isn't a joke!)


Give over. That graph above is legit & by Christmas we will have just about forgotten all about Covid.


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## classic33 (4 Aug 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> Keep your eye out for the Colombian variant, coming next....................... (and no, that isn't a joke!)


Is that the Lambda variant, which had eight cases in the UK this time last month?


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## Seevio (4 Aug 2021)

Are the variants named in (Greek) alphabetical order? If so, what happened to the epsilon to kappa variants? Were they just a bit crap?


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## Edwardoka (4 Aug 2021)

Milzy said:


> Give over. That graph above is legit & by Christmas we will have just about forgotten all about Covid.


That is a brave post, given that the thread in which it is posted is littered with the tattered remnants of confident assertions about how quickly covid will be gone, going right back to the very first pages. I did notice the last time that I looked back that a number of the people making those early bold predictions have ceased visiting the website for whatever reason.


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## slowmotion (4 Aug 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> That is a brave post, given that the thread in which it is posted is littered with the tattered remnants of confident assertions about how quickly covid will be gone, going right back to the very first pages. I did notice the last time that I looked back that a number of the people making those early bold predictions have ceased visiting the website for whatever reason.


Well I never! Was Donald Trump a member?????


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## Edwardoka (4 Aug 2021)

slowmotion said:


> Well I never! Was Donald Trump a member?????


There's a rule about not discussing past members when they're not here to defend themselves for good reason.

I will say this, though. The poster I'm alluding to... yuge hands, you're not gonna believe it.


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## Ajax Bay (5 Aug 2021)

All you might wish to know about the variants in UK, as at 30 Jul:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...riants-distribution-of-case-data-30-july-2021
Other than Alpha and Delta, 24 cases of other variants in 7 days in total.


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## Seevio (5 Aug 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> All you might wish to know about the variants in UK, as at 30 Jul:
> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...riants-distribution-of-case-data-30-july-2021
> Other than Alpha and Delta, 24 cases of other variants in 7 days in total.


Ok. The other variants are a bit crap. I am well aware that mutations are random and can be bad as well as good.


----------



## lane (5 Aug 2021)

SAGE noted in a recent report that we ate 100% certain to get a variant that evades the vaccine.


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## Chromatic (5 Aug 2021)

lane said:


> SAGE noted in a recent report that we ate 100% certain to get a variant that evades the vaccine.



I find that hard to swallow!


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## DaveReading (5 Aug 2021)

lane said:


> SAGE noted in a recent report that we ate 100% certain to get a variant that evades the vaccine.



I thought that SAGE dealt in balances of probabilities, not certainties.


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## PK99 (5 Aug 2021)

lane said:


> SAGE noted in a recent report that we ate 100% certain to get a variant that evades the vaccine.


@lane 
I'd be interested to read that report - do you have a link?


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## lane (5 Aug 2021)

You are absolutely correct, my error. They said it was "almost certain"

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/01/health/uk-scientists-covid-variant-beat-vaccines-intl/index.html


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## lane (5 Aug 2021)

PK99 said:


> @lane
> I'd be interested to read that report - do you have a link?



https://assets.publishing.service.g...6/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf


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## lane (5 Aug 2021)

"Antigenic drift: A gradual or punctuated accumulation of antigenic variation that eventually leads to current vaccine failure. Worst case is that this drift combines with significant antigenic sin (vaccination resulting in an immune response that is dominated by antibodies to previously experienced viruses/vaccines) meaning that it becomes difficult to revaccinate to induce antibodies to the new strains. Genetic and antigenic drift are almost inevitable. Antigenic sin has not yet been reported for SARS-CoV-2 so we consider this possibility less likely. Likelihood: *Almost certain.* Impact: Medium."


----------



## PK99 (5 Aug 2021)

lane said:


> You are absolutely correct, my error. They said it was "almost certain"
> 
> https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/01/health/uk-scientists-covid-variant-beat-vaccines-intl/index.html




The original paper (linked by the CNN Report) is a Scenario planning document and the CNN quote is by no means the "headline" conclusion of the report.
The proper sense is of 'current vaccine failure' not a 'complete vaccine evasion'.
The impact of such evasion is assessed in the report as "medium", there are a number of other scenarios where the impact is assessed as "high"

Full text here:

https://assets.publishing.service.g...6/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf


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## cambsno (5 Aug 2021)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> Scottish schools go back in 2 weeks time, students start returning to Scottish universities 2 weeks after that. So we don’t have to wait long to see if we’re going to get a rerun of 2020.



When kids went back to schools around Feb there was barely a blip in cases so that may not see a huge increase.


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## lane (6 Aug 2021)

Everything now supports the fact that the fall in cases was genuine and not due to reduces testing of school children etc. Fall in hospitalizations and reduction in ONS numbers to 1 in 75 and R between 0.8 and 1. Clearly the last few days we are either seeing a leveling out or an uptick following relaxation in restrictions. So far so good and much better than the 100,000 a day predicted for mid August. Still don't know how far the current uptick will go, what will happen in the Autumn or what new problems may be caused by variants in the future. But at least we can get on with more things at the moment without worrying too much.


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## markemark (6 Aug 2021)

Plateauing is driven by a rise in the under 25s with over 25s still dropping I expect this group to peak and drop soon as the 19th abd the under 25s socialising passes it’s peak. Will this continue in September? Last March the schools returned with no noticeable uptick in cases. So fingers crossed.


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## lane (6 Aug 2021)

No but last September when schools and more especially students returned cases shot up especially students. But many of them will be vaccinated or already have been infected this time round.


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## SpokeyDokey (6 Aug 2021)

Edwardoka said:


> That is a brave post, given that the thread in which it is posted is littered with the tattered remnants of confident assertions about how quickly covid will be gone, going right back to the very first pages. I did notice the last time that I looked back that a number of the people making those early bold predictions have ceased whatever reason.



But to be fair, and for balance, we have had more than our fair share of doom-mongers and panickers in this thread too which one way or another have knocked the stuffing out of every green shoot of optimism that we have ever had. And some of them no longer visit the thread.


----------



## classic33 (6 Aug 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> But to be fair, and for balance, we have had more than our fair share of doom-mongers and panickers in this thread too which one way or another have knocked the stuffing out of every green shoot of optimism that we have ever had.* And some of them no longer visit the thread.*


I'm hoping that part is a voluntary choice on their part, and that they're still around.


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## Flick of the Elbow (7 Aug 2021)

I’m trying to get my head round the fact that doors are being thrown open and we are being invited to ‘go back to normal’ when case rates are still over 100 per 100,000 in most of Scotland and double that in England. And two jabs of AZ only gives 60-something % protection. And there’s so little understanding of long covid, in particular I have yet to see anything to confirm that your chances of getting long covid are reduced by the vaccine. Am I still “cowering” ? Yes, I most certainly am ! And will be for some time to come I expect


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## alicat (7 Aug 2021)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> And two jabs of AZ only gives 60-something % protection.



I'm wondering what your source for that statement in.

I'm still cowering too, btw.


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## shep (7 Aug 2021)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> And two jabs of AZ only gives 60-something % protection.


I think you'll find general thoughts are it's around 90%+ after 2 jabs, whether that would reduce your cowering tendencies I don't know?


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## Flick of the Elbow (7 Aug 2021)

alicat said:


> I'm wondering what your source for that statement in.
> 
> I'm still cowering too, btw.


https://www.reuters.com/business/he...against-delta-variant-study-finds-2021-07-21/


> Two shots of AstraZeneca vaccine were 67% effective against the Delta variant, up from 60% originally reported


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## shep (7 Aug 2021)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> https://www.reuters.com/business/he...against-delta-variant-study-finds-2021-07-21/


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57183056
Depends where you look I guess?


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## Flick of the Elbow (7 Aug 2021)

shep said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57183056
> Depends where you look I guess?


That was dated in May and it doesn’t state the variant. The New England Journal of Medicine study reported by Reuters dates from late July and specifically refers to Delta. Given that most new infections in the UK are Delta this is highly relevant.


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## Ajax Bay (7 Aug 2021)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> And two jabs of AZ only gives 60-something % protection.


Accuracyish of this does depend on 'protection from what'. Here's the recent VEEP analysis:
*Vaccine Effectiveness Expert Panel - consensus narrative, 16 July*
The values presented reflect the consensus judgement of the Vaccine Effectiveness Expert Panel. The panel considers a wide range of domestic and international data. Because these figures reflect a consensus from a wider range of non-Public Health England (PHE) sources, they may differ from those in PHE's vaccine surveillance report.
The panel has previously agreed that, since there is no statistically significant evidence of differences in effectiveness between the Alpha and Delta variants for severe disease (hospitalisation), the Alpha estimates, for which confidence in the data is greater, should be assumed to apply to both variants. Where there is some evidence that effectiveness is different for symptomatic disease, separate estimates for Delta are provided in the table.
1) For overall infection (i.e. symptomatic and asymptomatic) the panel agreed, since there is as yet no direct evidence for Delta, and no evidence of relative protection compared with Alpha, that estimates should not be provided for Delta. It was mentioned that there may be new data from Scotland relevant to infection, but this has not yet been made available. 
2) On transmission (i.e. the reduction in onward transmission by vaccinated but infected people) the panel agreed that, although there is as yet no direct evidence for the Delta variant, there is indirect evidence suggesting any transmission blocking may be substantially attenuated compared with the effect previously observed for Alpha. Therefore, estimates will not be provided for Delta. 
The panel reached consensus on the following narrative summary:
3) *Infection (symptomatic & asymptomatic)*. For the Alpha variant, protection against any infection is ~60% after one dose of the AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccines. After the second dose, this increases to ~80% for AstraZeneca and ~85% for Pfizer. These are relatively low confidence estimates. For the Delta variant, as yet there is no direct evidence on protection against overall infection, and no evidence of a difference in protection with respect to Alpha, so estimates are not provided.
4) *Symptomatic disease*. There is evidence that vaccine effectiveness is lower for the Delta variant than for Alpha. Against Alpha, protection is ~60% after a single dose of either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca (AZ) vaccines, rising to ~80% after a second dose for AstraZeneca and 90% for Pfizer. For Delta, protection is assessed to be ~45% after one dose for AstraZeneca and ~55% for Pfizer. After the second dose this increases to ~70% for AstraZeneca and ~85% for Pfizer. For the Moderna vaccine, protection is ~70% after one dose. At 
this stage, there is uncertainty around the point estimates for Delta and confidence is relatively low.
5) *Severe disease* (hospitalisation and mortality). At present, although point estimates vary for hospitalisation with the Alpha and Delta variants, there is substantial overlap between the confidence intervals, and there is no evidence to suggest a statistically significant difference between vaccine effectiveness against the two variants. Based on this, similar levels of protection against hospitalisation and death for both variants are assumed at this stage. For hospitalisation, with both the AZ and Pfizer vaccines, protection is ~80% after one 
dose and ~95% after the second dose. There is currently a higher degree of confidence with the Pfizer estimates than with the AZ estimates.
6) *Transmission*. For the Alpha variant, there is ~40% reduction in onward transmission from vaccinated but infected people after one dose of AstraZeneca, and ~45% for Pfizer. There is no data for second doses. For Delta, there is currently no direct evidence, and therefore, estimates are not provided. However, there is indirect evidence to suggest any transmission blocking may be substantially lower than for Alpha, if at all.


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## kingrollo (10 Aug 2021)

All the numbers are beginning to rise again ....146 deaths today.

At what point will this start being headline news again. ......... September anyone ?


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## classic33 (10 Aug 2021)

kingrollo said:


> All the numbers are beginning to rise again ....146 deaths today.
> 
> At what point will this start being headline news again. ......... September anyone ?


Two weeks time.


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## Mo1959 (10 Aug 2021)

classic33 said:


> Two weeks time.


Packed Ibrox stadium in Glasgow tonight. Be interesting to see if it makes any difference.


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## Milzy (10 Aug 2021)

kingrollo said:


> All the numbers are beginning to rise again ....146 deaths today.
> 
> At what point will this start being headline news again. ......... September anyone ?


146 deaths related exactly to Covid? How do you know? Just believe everything that’s in the governments news?


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## Ajax Bay (10 Aug 2021)

kingrollo said:


> All the numbers are beginning to rise again ....146 deaths today.


Incorrigible! Please would you share which 'all' figures you are talking about? Percentage rate of As and A*s? [to which my son has just contributed  ]
Shock news: Deaths reported on the website on Tuesday (ie reported on Monday) are much higher than deaths reported on Saturday and Sunday! Just to help you along, @kingrollo the Mondays were: 9 Aug, 2 Aug, 26 Jul and 19 Jul (all done without reference to a calendar!) Have a go and see if you can guess which days were Tuesdays.
These numbers are deaths with or of COVID (on certificate) [ @Milzy ]
No: mercifully the daily death rate is effectively 'flat' and relatively low. The fact there has not been a gentle peak is surprising: I expected one to show with a peak on 4 Aug, (+ or - 3 days) given that cases peaked on 17 Jul and there's characteristically 10 days to the admissions peak and another 10 to the sad deaths peak. The very different cohort of the young and older un-vaxxed makes the delay patterns which were consistent Mar 20 - May 21 no longer applicable. Edit: There's also noise caused because Scotland are operating 3 weeks ahead (dumped out of Euros, school holidays, relaxation dates).
Here's a graph of UK deaths. Blue line is the date of report; orange line is by date of death (as per death certificate).






https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths


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## vickster (10 Aug 2021)

Milzy said:


> 146 deaths related exactly to Covid? How do you know? Just believe everything that’s in the governments news?


Isn’t it within 28 days of a positive test, not all Covid cause of death?


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## Mo1959 (10 Aug 2021)

Milzy said:


> 146 deaths related exactly to Covid? How do you know? Just believe everything that’s in the governments news?


If it’s anything like the GP service, or lack of here just now it wouldn't surprise me if it was people that hadn’t been able to get diagnosis and treatment for other things and got seriously ill and died  

Speaking to a women yesterday who could barely put her foot to the ground as her hip was so sore and GP didn’t want to know and wanted her to see the physio. She knew herself it didn’t feel right and insisted on an x-ray which he reluctantly agreed to. Turns out her hip was broken and she was taken straight to Ninewells. How many more things like this are happening. 

Normally I get my bowel screening kit within days of my birthday. It’s been over 3 months and nothing this year.


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## classic33 (10 Aug 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> If it’s anything like the GP service, or lack of here just now it wouldn't surprise me if it was people that hadn’t been able to get diagnosis and treatment for other things and got seriously ill and died
> 
> Speaking to a women yesterday who could barely put her foot to the ground as her hip was so sore and GP didn’t want to know and wanted her to see the physio. She knew herself it didn’t feel right and insisted on an x-ray which he reluctantly agreed to. Turns out her hip was broken and she was taken straight to Ninewells. How many more things like this are happening.
> 
> Normally I get my bowel screening kit within days of my birthday. It’s been over 3 months and nothing this year.


I've a feeling that indirect deaths aren't amongst the figures, from the start.

People unable to access medical help for less serious conditions.


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## Buck (10 Aug 2021)

Let’s be clear that regardless of what the figures indicate, they are only an estimate (in that no one can see with 100% accuracy what the absolute impact of Covid has on every death) and as has been discussed will not be able to show the absolute figures. We even know that comparison to other countries is nigh on impossible due to differences in reporting methodology. 

Likewise, we know that all areas of society and especially healthcare have been seriously affected and this will lead to many lost years with lower quality of life for those waiting for a procedure and earlier deaths for this who could not get timely treatment for physical and let’s not forget, mental health issues.

This is the real human cost to many of us, directly and indirectly, of this pandemic.


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## classic33 (10 Aug 2021)

I hope that they're able to replace staff lost, to date and in the coming months. 
Nursing isn't a job you can just walk into.


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## Buck (10 Aug 2021)

You’re spot on @classic33 

There are now fewer Consultants, Nurses, GPs than pre-pandemic and demand is at an all time high. This isn’t going to be a quick fix.


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## kingrollo (11 Aug 2021)

Milzy said:


> 146 deaths related exactly to Covid? How do you know? Just believe everything that’s in the governments news?


Well those are the official figures. And that's the highest death tally for a while using a consistent measurement technique.

Unless of course you believe that the figures are made up - which is a different discussion entirely.


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## Craig the cyclist (11 Aug 2021)

kingrollo said:


> All the numbers are beginning to rise again ....146 deaths today.
> 
> At what point will this start being headline news again. ......... September anyone ?



@Ajax Bay came back with a graph. I am happier to say quite simply..........no they aren't.


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## PK99 (11 Aug 2021)

kingrollo said:


> All the numbers are beginning to rise again ....146 deaths today.
> 
> At what point will this start being headline news again. ......... September anyone ?



Always dangerous to focus on individual data points in a noisy data set:


10-08-2021146130,50309-08-202137130,35708-08-202139130,32007-08-2021103130,28106-08-202192130,17805-08-202186130,08604-08-2021119130,00003-08-2021138129,88102-08-202124129,74301-08-202165129,71931-07-202171129,65430-07-202168129,58329-07-202185129,51528-07-202191129,43027-07-2021131129,303


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## PK99 (11 Aug 2021)

Recent reports to the effect that the Delta variant being able to infect fully vaccinated people who are protected from serious illness, not infection, means that Herd Immunity can never be achieved, has serious implications for Australia and even more so New Zealand.

Put simply, they cannot open their borders untill their populations are fully vaccinated and infection being low they must be last in the vaccine queue behind countries with active disease.


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## mjr (11 Aug 2021)

PK99 said:


> Put simply, they cannot open their borders untill their populations are fully vaccinated and infection being low they must be last in the vaccine queue behind countries with active disease.


I think (hope!) their leaders always knew that that was a risk and factored it in.

Would they stay last in the queue if the outbreaks there continue to grow? And would you put them in front of or behind extra doses for fully-vaccinated people in countries like the UK?

The WHO has asked for the UK and others to delay extra doses for two months so the world's most vulnerable 10% can be vaccinated first. https://www.itv.com/news/2021-08-04...urges-wealthy-countries-to-delay-booster-jabs


----------



## Rusty Nails (11 Aug 2021)

mjr said:


> The WHO has asked for the UK and others to delay extra doses for two months so the world's most vulnerable 10% can be vaccinated first. https://www.itv.com/news/2021-08-04...urges-wealthy-countries-to-delay-booster-jabs



I think that this is a perfectly civilised and acceptable idea where poorer countries are at a disadvantage in getting and administering vaccinations.

Australia and NZ are wealthy countries and any shortfall or backlog in vaccinations is their political/scientific choice, for which they factored in the risks, so they should pay as much as it costs to put right their own policy decision made out of choice not necessity.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 Aug 2021)

Make of this what you will: the PHE ''Active Cases'' figure is almost half that of the Zoe app ''Daily Cases.'' 23,510 (9/8) to 45,911 (11/8)


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## vickster (11 Aug 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Make of this what you will: the PHE ''Active Cases'' figure is almost half that of the Zoe app ''Daily Cases.'' 23,510 (9/8) to 45,911 (11/8)


Are the Zoe cases backed up by positive test results as presumably PHE are?
Or self reported symptoms and an assumption it’s Covid (I don’t use it, so genuinely don’t know 🤷‍♀️)
Apparently symptoms in vaccinated folk are more akin to a cold/other virus than the ‘classic Covid symptoms’ (loss of taste/smell, cough etc)

Assume those are England Zoe data only?


----------



## Milzy (11 Aug 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Well those are the official figures. And that's the highest death tally for a while using a consistent measurement technique.
> 
> Unless of course you believe that the figures are made up - which is a different discussion entirely.


Yeah I do believe they’re made up. Most of the media outlets are deep state ran. 
Funny how it’s rising but now nobody gives a hoot all of a sudden. I thought most were vaccinated so how are they dying? People are always dying & the cause of deaths are not recorded properly.


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## KnittyNorah (11 Aug 2021)

Australia, at least, has a more-than-ample supply of A-Z BUT many, many people have been ,or still are, reluctant to have it. 
It has all been very badly handled indeed. 
It also certainly has the ability and resources to set up probably one of the most effective and equitable mass vaccination campaigns in the world - but seems not to have the _will _to do so.

I have friends there, from when I lived there, who have had A-Z and are/were more than happy to have A-Z but they tell me that because of the (earlier) success with border closures - and what they described as blatant scaremongering in the media - there has never been any real 'impetus' felt for, or applied to, a co-ordinated national vaccination campaign such as we and - eventually - most of the other 'western' nations enjoyed, even those which had a slow start such as Canada. 
My friends and former colleagues from some of those communities have ensured their own parents and extended families get vaccinated - but without some overarching organisation, mass _national _vaccination as we saw it here is simply impossible. 

Delta has really, badly, caught then on the wrong foot and there aren't yet (or weren't until very recently) even multi-lingual vaccination leaflets in the areas most in need of them, never mind priests, imams and other multi-cultural community leaders being actively encouraged and given information to talk to their congregations etc about vaccination. One of my friends - a radiologist - said it feels as if the national and federal governments are acting like roos or rabbits 'frozen in the headlights'.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 Aug 2021)

vickster said:


> Are the Zoe cases backed up by positive test results as presumably PHE are?
> Or self reported symptoms and an assumption it’s Covid (I don’t use it, so genuinely don’t know 🤷‍♀️)
> Apparently symptoms in vaccinated folk are more akin to a cold/other virus than the ‘classic Covid symptoms’ (loss of taste/smell, cough etc)
> 
> Assume those are England Zoe data only?


Actually, Zoe figures are UK wide but England, of course, makes up the great majority of the UK population.

They're self-reported symptoms but backed up with testing and antibody data. Additionally, they are including mild symptoms but their list of symptoms for the Delta variant are slightly different. The ''like a cold/flu'' symptoms do not just apply to vaccinated folk, they apply to the Delta variant as a whole. (Zoe seem pretty angry that the government/NHS has not updated the symptom list.) 

The self-reporting aspect should not automatically lead to a suspicion that they're tapping into the UK's reserve of hypochondriacs. They recently found that Zoe contributors had a ''health bias,'' with higher than typical vaccination levels and higher PPE use, and who were reporting lower than normal infection rates. They've had to change their methodology to compensate for their dwindling figures compared with the general population. Of course, I have no idea what calculations they are using.


----------



## vickster (11 Aug 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Actually, Zoe figures are UK wide but England, of course, makes up the great majority of the UK population.
> 
> They're self-reported symptoms but backed up with testing and antibody data. Additionally, they are including mild symptoms but their list of symptoms for the Delta variant are slightly different. The ''like a cold/flu'' symptoms do not just apply to vaccinated folk, they apply to the Delta variant as a whole. (Zoe seem pretty angry that the government/NHS has not updated the symptom list.)
> 
> The self-reporting aspect should not automatically lead to a suspicion that they're tapping into the UK's reserve of hypochondriacs. They recently found that Zoe contributors had a ''health bias,'' with higher than typical vaccination levels and higher PPE use, and who were reporting lower than normal infection rates. They've had to change their methodology to compensate for their dwindling figures compared with the general population. Of course, I have no idea what calculations they are using.


It would be interesting to know what percentage of Zoe users with symptoms got tested and were negative? Or did all those symptomatic Zoe people quoted test positive?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (11 Aug 2021)

vickster said:


> It would be interesting to know what percentage of Zoe users with symptoms got tested and were negative? Or did all those symptomatic Zoe people quoted test positive?


It would but at least a reported negative would take them off the list. I've no idea how they deal with people reporting symptoms who do not report test results.


----------



## mjr (11 Aug 2021)

Rusty Nails said:


> I think that this is a perfectly civilised and acceptable idea where poorer countries are at a disadvantage in getting and administering vaccinations.
> 
> Australia and NZ are wealthy countries and any shortfall or backlog in vaccinations is their political/scientific choice, for which they factored in the risks, so they should pay as much as it costs to put right their own policy decision made out of choice not necessity.


I should probably note that A+NZ have both already exceeded that 10% fully-vaccinated target (currently roughly 18% in each) and over 30% have now had at least one dose, whereas the low-income countries only have 1.2% with 1+ dose. So hopefully the most at-risk there are now protected.

Hopefully we can all agree that donations to GAVI should start before third doses are dispensed.

So I'm intrigued as to where people would put A+NZ in the queue compared to third doses. Does cost really come into it? Is total world vaccine production yet more than is needed? If it is, should A+NZ have to match the price that others are paying for third doses if they want them ahead of those? When would it stop being justice and start being vindictive?


----------



## Rusty Nails (11 Aug 2021)

mjr said:


> I should probably note that A+NZ have both already exceeded that 10% fully-vaccinated target (currently roughly 18% in each) and over 30% have now had at least one dose, whereas the low-income countries only have 1.2% with 1+ dose. So hopefully the most at-risk there are now protected.
> 
> Hopefully we can all agree that donations to GAVI should start before third doses are dispensed.
> 
> So I'm intrigued as to where people would put A+NZ in the queue compared to third doses. Does cost really come into it? Is total world vaccine production yet more than is needed? If it is, should A+NZ have to match the price that others are paying for third doses if they want them ahead of those? When would it stop being justice and start being vindictive?


As you said earlier they factored in the risks. Paying extra to get vaccines after others had got in first was one of those risks. If it costs them a lot of money they have to bear that cost.

Having said that, if it looks at all to be turning into a really large humanitarian disaster despite their best efforts then the rest of the wealthy, (vaccinated) World needs to help divert vaccines to them. Don't ask me what the tipping point should be for that to happen, that is what my taxes pay experts and politicians for.


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## deptfordmarmoset (12 Aug 2021)

vickster said:


> ...Assume those are England Zoe data only?


I've just found their breakdown by country. UK 45,911, England 41,186, Scotland 1,534, Wales 1,499, NI 1,691.


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## vickster (12 Aug 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Make of this what you will: the PHE ''Active Cases'' figure is almost half that of the Zoe app ''Daily Cases.'' 23,510 (9/8) to 45,911 (11/8)


So need to update this for accuracy and check the other measures match if wanting to compare


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## deptfordmarmoset (12 Aug 2021)

vickster said:


> So need to update this for accuracy and check the other measures match if wanting to compare


Big hike in the PHE figures - was 23,510 3 days ago. 33,074 (12/8), 41,194 (Zoe England, 11/8)


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## mjr (13 Aug 2021)

Here's a fairly long but readable summary of the current situation, although with a US focus with some mentions of the UK and others. Amongst other things, it praises the sort of direct metric-to-measures laws I said I'd use, instead of the "smashing from one side of the aisle to the other" that England has had. Nevertheless, there are other bits I still hope will be avoided in the UK but I fear won't. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726/


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## Ajax Bay (13 Aug 2021)

The Atlantic article a long but quality read - well done @mjr for finding. For the TL;DR cohort, here's a few extracts:

"Full vaccination (with the mRNA vaccines, at least) is about 88 percent effective at preventing symptomatic disease caused by the Delta variant. Breakthrough infections are possible but affect only 0.01 to 0.29% of fully vaccinated people, according to data from the Kaiser Family Foundation. Breakthroughs . . . are relatively rare and [the symptoms are] much milder than equivalent infections in unvaccinated people: Full vaccination is 96 percent effective at preventing hospitalizations, and unvaccinated people make up more than 95% of COVID-19 patients in American hospital beds. The vaccines are working, and working well. Vaccinated people are indisputably safer than unvaccinated people."
Comment: The breakthrough infection percentage seems rather unreliable: it implies extraordinary vaccine effectiveness (guess it depends on the definition/threshold/effective reporting of 'breakthrough').

"we need to take advantage of every single tool we have at our disposal . . . these should include better ventilation to reduce the spread of the virus, rapid tests to catch early infections, and forms of social support such as paid sick leave, eviction moratoriums, and free isolation sites that allow infected people to stay away from others. . . . where cases are lower masks: the simplest, cheapest, and least disruptive of all the anti-COVID measures—might be enough."

In the USA "pediatric (sic) COVID-19 cases are skyrocketing and hospitalizations have reached a pandemic high"

"the 'zero COVID' dream of fully stamping out the virus is a fantasy. Instead, the _pandemic_ ends when almost everyone has immunity, preferably because they were vaccinated or alternatively because they were infected . . . . When that happens, the cycle of surges will stop and the pandemic will peter out. The new coronavirus will become _endemic_—a recurring part of our lives like its four cousins that cause common colds. It will be less of a problem, not because it has changed but because it is no longer novel and people are no longer immunologically vulnerable. Endemicity was always the likely outcome; now [it's] _unavoidable_."


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## Ajax Bay (13 Aug 2021)

In the last 10 weeks, 1.6M people in UK have reported positive cases. Going on UK's experience this suggests 3+M unvaccinated have been infected since 26 May (when this wave started). In another month (at the current daily rate) another 1M will be infected, mostly unvaccinated. Of those about 25k will develop illness serious enough to need hospitalisation (2.5%).
47M have had one dose and 40M have had 2. Currently the average gap between jabs is 10 weeks.
There's 1.5M 16 and 17 year olds - we'll see what the uptake is, but reducing infection in schoolchildren will mean their education can continue with less disruption.
The best SPI-M modelling I can find is the 9 Jun Warwick work (see graph below), where they assess what would be the effect of delaying the final relaxation from 21 Jun to 19 Jul (well done the Government for taking account of the science and delaying by 4 weeks).

It has played out about on the bottom green line. It looks likely that the decline in the curve will be slower: August and September.
Peak daily admissions were 23 Jul at 909. Edit: Looks like occupancy may have peaked on 9 Aug.




E


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## deptfordmarmoset (18 Aug 2021)

So if wearing a mask protects others and is government advice for indoors and in crowded places, what does it say about these people?


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## Milzy (18 Aug 2021)

Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?


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## deptfordmarmoset (18 Aug 2021)

Milzy said:


> Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?


Scientifically, no, I couldn't. Politically, I refer you to the above photo of elected sociopaths.


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## midlife (18 Aug 2021)

Milzy said:


> Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?



As above, to end the "pingdemic" and get more people back into work......


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## lazybloke (18 Aug 2021)

Milzy said:


> Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?


Isn't that dependent on the result of a pcr test?


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## midlife (18 Aug 2021)

If you are double jabbed or under 18 then you don't have to isolate after a contact. There is a recommendation to get a PCR (not mandatory) but go about your normal business. Only isolate if you test positive. Which is how I read it.


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## markemark (19 Aug 2021)

Milzy said:


> Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?


Because you’re less likely to catch it if you’re double jabbed.


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## roubaixtuesday (19 Aug 2021)

Milzy said:


> Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?



As @markemark says, you're much less likely to catch the virus. 

But also, the study out today does *not* show there is no less transmission if you do catch it when vaccinated, it shows rather than on one proxy for onward transmission* there is no difference for delta, where there was for alpha. That suggests the impact on transmission for delta is lower, but it's not measured directly in that study and could still be worthwhile. 

*PCR Ct minimum value


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## deptfordmarmoset (19 Aug 2021)

markemark said:


> Because you’re less likely to catch it if you’re double jabbed.


The ONS/Oxford report out today has important implications for transmission. The double jabbed can harbour the virus as well as the unsymptomatic can.


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## markemark (19 Aug 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The ONS/Oxford report out today has important implications for transmission. The double jabbed can harbour the virus as well as the unsymptomatic can.


It says that the viral load in those jabbed is the same as those in jabbed. It also says you’re less likely to catch it in the first place and it also says they didn’t measure how long you’re infectious for which may well be Jess.


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## roubaixtuesday (19 Aug 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The ONS/Oxford report out today has important implications for transmission. The double jabbed can harbour the virus as well as the unsymptomatic can.



Yes, it seems to clearly show more potential for onwards transmission with Delta. But be cautious of overinterpreting I think.

Firstly, double jabbed are still far less likely to get infected in the first place.

Secondly, the measure used (PCR Ct value) is a proxy for onward transmission and other factors eg duration may impact too. So there may still be a difference if double jabbed.

Thirdly, the error bars on the data are large.

Here's the press release "Key findings from the study": 

_Obtaining two vaccine doses remains the most effective way to ensure protection against the COVID-19 Delta variant of concern dominant in the UK today._
_With Delta, Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines still offer good protection against new infections, but effectiveness is reduced compared with Alpha._
_Two doses of either vaccine still provided at least the same level of protection as having had COVID-19 before through natural infection; people who had been vaccinated after already being infected with COVID-19 had even more protection than vaccinated individuals who had not had COVID-19 before._
_However, Delta infections after two vaccine doses had similar peak levels of virus to those in unvaccinated people; with the Alpha variant, peak virus levels in those infected post-vaccination were much lower._

https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/covid-19/covid-19-infection-survey/results/new-studies

And the preprint

https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/files/coro...ction-survey/finalfinalcombinedve20210816.pdf

And here's the Ct data, the right hand set being mainly delta.


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## newfhouse (19 Aug 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> So if wearing a mask protects others and is government advice for indoors and in crowded places, what does it say about these people?
> View attachment 604956


Is that Hunt wearing one in the second row?


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## deptfordmarmoset (19 Aug 2021)

newfhouse said:


> Is that Hunt wearing one in the second row?


I think so. Apparently, Gove is also wearing one though he's out of shot. Also Damian Hinds, security minister is wearing one too.


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## roubaixtuesday (19 Aug 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> So if wearing a mask protects others and is government advice for indoors and in crowded places, *what does it say about these people?*
> View attachment 604956



That they are unfit to lead the country. Simple as that.


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## newfhouse (19 Aug 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I think so. Apparently, Gove is also wearing one though he's out of shot.


Is that to hide the white powder around his nostrils?


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## Ajax Bay (19 Aug 2021)

s'Nuff


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## Bazzer (20 Aug 2021)

Youngest daughter's boyfriend was feeling crap Tuesday and Wednesday, so had a PCR test - positive. So daughter had a PCR test, a) because of contact with him and b) she was staring to feel crap. Now been told she is positive. She is also now feeling really poorly.
Both had been double jabbed, my daughter long before her age group was officially due to have them.

On a positive note, she isn't at home, but isolating with her boyfriend. I am due to be looking after my 90 year old Mum all next week and as soon as I heard about her boyfriend, had been putting into place measures to isolate from my daughter, even if she had tested negative.


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## Ajax Bay (21 Aug 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> [Advocating the prophylactic use of ivermectin] is an earnest search for medicine when we still have none, certainly outside hospital.


And all of a sudden a No 3 bus comes along (Croxted Road ), making that statement wrong.
MHRA: Ronapreve is indicated for the prophylaxis and treatment of acute Covid-19 infection. The medicine is a mix of "Casirivimab and imdevimab: two neutralising IgG1 recombinant human monoclonal antibodies produced by recombinant DNA technology in Chinese hamster [] ovary cells".
Looks like the prophylaxis target are individuals with mild or moderate renal impairment or with mild hepatic impairment who may or may not be able to take the vaccine.


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## mjr (21 Aug 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> And all of a sudden a No 3 bus comes along (Croxted Road ), making that statement wrong.
> MHRA: Ronapreve is indicated for the prophylaxis and treatment of acute Covid-19 infection. The medicine is a mix of "Casirivimab and imdevimab: two neutralising IgG1 recombinant human monoclonal antibodies produced by recombinant DNA technology in Chinese hamster [] ovary cells".
> Looks like the prophylaxis target are individuals with mild or moderate renal impairment or with mild hepatic impairment who may or may not be able to take the vaccine.


I was really hoping the MHRA had used  but it's not there when I clicked through!


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## Ajax Bay (21 Aug 2021)

Latest ONS antibody survey
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...rveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/latest

_"In England, it is estimated that over 9 in 10 adults, or 94.2% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 93.2% to 95.1%) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the specific virus that causes coronavirus (COVID-19), on a blood test in the week beginning 26 July 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated._
 _"In Scotland, [within a point the same]"._
I wonder what the percentage is in the 14M under 18s in UK?
Even if 100% have protection evidenced by presence of antibodies, that protection against infection is 'only' about (say) 70% average, and that's too low for herd immunity against the Delta variant, its R number even moderated a bit by the NPIs that people will accept in UK. Endemic in our lifetimes (like and not like, flu).
Best we get on and live those lives.


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## Johnno260 (24 Aug 2021)

Looks like many could learn a lot from NZ reaction.

I know there is a population difference but their track and trace seems utterly on point.

That Tweet and the responses seem like a job very well done, especially with the potential 13000 additional contacts traced an contacted.


View: https://twitter.com/drjinrussell/status/1429945207273910276?s=21

Edit: Sorry I linked a tweet, if there is a way to convert this to be viewed via a browser please let me know.


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## mjr (25 Aug 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> Looks like many could learn a lot from NZ reaction.
> 
> I know there is a population difference but their track and trace seems utterly on point.


We will learn a lot, because NZ is one of very few countries persuing an elimination strategy rather than containment or conflagration. Political pressure against it is starting to build but public support remains high and I think it is difficult to see how surrendering while at such a low vaccination rate wouldn't end very badly with a "catch up" wave of deaths. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...covid-zero-strategy-despite-rising-infections

Meanwhile, things continue to worsen in Japan and government continue to say it's nothing to do with the big sports events.
https://www.thejournal.ie/japan-extending-state-of-emergency-5531053-Aug2021/


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## Johnno260 (25 Aug 2021)

mjr said:


> We will learn a lot, because NZ is one of very few countries persuing an elimination strategy rather than containment or conflagration. Political pressure against it is starting to build but public support remains high and I think it is difficult to see how surrendering while at such a low vaccination rate wouldn't end very badly with a "catch up" wave of deaths. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...covid-zero-strategy-despite-rising-infections
> 
> Meanwhile, things continue to worsen in Japan and government continue to say it's nothing to do with the big sports events.
> https://www.thejournal.ie/japan-extending-state-of-emergency-5531053-Aug2021/



I’m sure each strategy used has merits depending on the nation, but after all this experts really need to dissect the data to try and see what we can all do better, as this will happen again in the future.

The Japanese outbreaks have to be related to the sports, issue there is the cities are all highly populated as well, my sister visited a while back and was amazed by how heavily populated Tokyo was.

I’m willing to bet back home in the U.K all the recent hotspots are staycation related, we love Cornwall but knew it would be packed, we instead found a really nice lodge near Ipswich haha it was between Ipswich and Shotley, lovely place and not very busy.


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## matticus (25 Aug 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> The Japanese outbreaks have to be related to the sports, issue there is the cities are all highly populated as well, my sister visited a while back and was amazed by how heavily populated Tokyo was.


I'd taken no interest in Japanese stats before now. Do we know why their (pre-Olympics) figures for 2021 were so much higher than 2020?

I guess they increased testing (like most countries)? But also I note the death-rate took off around Dec 10th, it looks like a real game of 2 halves for them (even before the Olympics) :-/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/


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## Johnno260 (25 Aug 2021)

matticus said:


> I'd taken no interest in Japanese stats before now. Do we know why their (pre-Olympics) figures for 2021 were so much higher than 2020?
> 
> I guess they increased testing (like most countries)? But also I note the death-rate took off around Dec 10th, it looks like a real game of 2 halves for them (even before the Olympics) :-/
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/



I feel for them regarding the Olympics it’s been a real poisoned chalice for those games, the lost revenue from tourism and merchandise must’ve really hurt.

Also like you said, more testing will equate to more positives.


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## classic33 (5 Sep 2021)

Covid passports later this year

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58452953

Local event location, Piece Hall, has been insisting on one for the last month. Or a lateral flow test performed in the last 30 minutes, amongst other such tests. Even the under 11's aren't excused this requirement by gate staff.


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## DaveReading (5 Sep 2021)

classic33 said:


> Or a lateral flow test performed in the last 30 minutes



As requirements go, that's about as unrealistic as it gets.


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## classic33 (5 Sep 2021)

DaveReading said:


> As requirements go, that's about as unrealistic as it gets.


It can take longer than that to get confirmation of a negative test.

The cynic in me can see the venue selling the tests for entry requirements.


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## Craig the cyclist (5 Sep 2021)

classic33 said:


> The cynic in me can see the venue selling the tests for entry requirements


That wouldn't work though, if you need proof of a test to get in, then they won't be able to sell you one as you would have to be in there to buy one, which means you have already had one!


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## classic33 (5 Sep 2021)

Craig the cyclist said:


> That wouldn't work though, if you need proof of a test to get in, then they won't be able to sell you one as you would have to be in there to buy one, which means you have already had one!


The checks are made outside the building, which itself is open to the elements.


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## Milzy (5 Sep 2021)

I’m just wondering, won’t the double vaxed end up just been treated like the unvaccinated if they don’t have a 3rd, 4th & so on? Or am I been like a conspiracy nobber for thinking this?


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## classic33 (5 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> I’m just wondering, won’t the double vaxed end up just been treated like the unvaccinated if they don’t have a 3rd, 4th & so on? Or am I been like a conspiracy nobber for thinking this?


Unless current plans change, not everyone will be getting a third, in England at least.

I'd say no to the conspiracy part though.


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## MichaelW2 (5 Sep 2021)

I'm trying to find out if a non EU citizen can travel from a non EU/ Shengen country into Austria with double vaccination.
The information is really hard to find. I am getting swamped with info about other countries or other conditions or out if date info.
Is there a travel matrix of reliable current rules available anywhere?


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## Ajax Bay (5 Sep 2021)

Here's some attention to make up for the love we may not be showing to our isolating antipodean cousins.






Australia have had a pretty constant doubling time since the outbreak began in early July. New Zealand look like they have screwed down on Delta Go New Zealand! (Sounds like they're doing some innovative work over e.g. sewer sampling to detect "off the radar" cases.)
Worth remembering that the UK rate is about 8 times higher at 500ish per million.


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## vickster (5 Sep 2021)

MichaelW2 said:


> I'm trying to find out if a non EU citizen can travel from a non EU/ Shengen country into Austria with double vaccination.
> The information is really hard to find. I am getting swamped with info about other countries or other conditions or out if date info.
> Is there a travel matrix of reliable current rules available anywhere?


Here?
https://www.austria.info/en/service-and-facts/coronavirus-information/entry-regulations
You can email at… info@austria.info


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## kingrollo (7 Sep 2021)

Whatever happened to a tweaked vaccine that could protect against new variants ?


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## roubaixtuesday (7 Sep 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Whatever happened to a tweaked vaccine that could protect against new variants ?



Trials ongoing I believe eg

http://www.pharmatimes.com/news/az_doses_first_participants_with_covid-19_variant_vaccine_1372293

https://www.pfizer.com/science/coronavirus/vaccine/emerging-variants

The sense I have is that a booster of current vaccine is thought likely to be sufficiently effective to render variant vaccines not worth while. But that's nothing more than personal speculation tbh.


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## classic33 (9 Sep 2021)

Informed by the staff at a testing station, that their contract for testing expires in 2024.


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## mjr (10 Sep 2021)

Denmark ended vaccine passport nightclub and bar entry requirements on 1 September.

Ireland has reached 90% of 18+ fully vaccinated. The UK is currently at 80% of 16+


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## mjr (13 Sep 2021)

Saliva tests now available that are 95ish% the same results as the tonsil/nose tests. https://www.thejournal.ie/saliva-pcr-covid-19-test-5543680-Sep2021/


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## classic33 (14 Sep 2021)

mjr said:


> Saliva tests now available that are 95ish% the same results as the tonsil/nose tests. https://www.thejournal.ie/saliva-pcr-covid-19-test-5543680-Sep2021/


308 test subjects isn't exactly a high number, with just under 5% of the results discordant and all of those in symptomatic patients.


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## mjr (14 Sep 2021)

classic33 said:


> 308 test subjects isn't exactly a high number, with just under 5% of the results discordant and all of those in symptomatic patients.


Said to be consistent with other studies (but I don't know which) which might mean the small sample isn't too much of a worry.

Isn't this a better match than the lateral flow test which is around 10% discord IIRC?


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## classic33 (14 Sep 2021)

mjr said:


> Said to be consistent with other studies (but I don't know which) which might mean the small sample isn't too much of a worry.
> 
> Isn't this a better match than the lateral flow test which is around 10% discord IIRC?


It's not being designed to replace the lateral flow test though. It's the PCR test they want to replace with it.

Given that such kits are on the market already(£4 upwards), at cost to the person testing, is it actually better than what it seeks to replace. Some require pairing with an app to get the full result.


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## Ajax Bay (14 Sep 2021)

Looking at the gov.uk dashboard, it's now clear that the peak of this last 'swell' which started on 30 Jul) was on 3 Sep. The reporting date peak was on 5 Sep and the by specimen date of 3 Sep can be relied on. Cases are about 25% down on the peak and falling. So we might reasonably expect the peak of hospital admissions to be about today.
I'd observe there seems to have been no sign that the return to school (England) over the last 10 days has had any apparent effect on infection rates, despite all the non-science based pessimists.
We'll have to see if the return to universities cause reverse to the trend over the next fortnight. Certainly last September that 2020 cohort (unvaccinated of course) made a significant contribution to the slow ramping up last autumn. If students are academically good enough to benefit from a university education I hope they've also been astute enough to get vaccinated, in both their own interest and for the good of their peers, as well as the wider community.


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## Julia9054 (14 Sep 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I'd observe there seems to have been no sign that the return to school (England) over the last 10 days has had any apparent effect on infection rates, despite all the non-science based pessimists.


Although the peak of infections being the 3rd September would be as all pupils were having their return to school 3 supervised lateral flow tests so not surprising. At my school, 2.65% of pupils tested positive and were therefore prevented from returning to school in the first week.


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## Ajax Bay (14 Sep 2021)

SARS-COV-2: before it was (2019):
https://overmatter.substack.com/p/the-november-story
An excellent read: author is the Health Policy Editor for the Economist.


----------



## MrGrumpy (15 Sep 2021)

Isolate or not too isolate . Scenario (not mine ) , young child in a family , runny nose not feeling too great. Parents decide to send child for a PCR test. One parent is a teacher, school send her home along. With the other two children in the family to isolate and await results. Should they all be isolating if parents double jabbed and have no symptoms ? Lateral flow tests are negative .
Scogov say isolate if suspected case or in the same household. I’m sure that’s not the case now? My employer also says otherwise unless been contacted.


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## KnittyNorah (15 Sep 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> Isolate or not too isolate . Scenario (not mine ) , young child in a family , runny nose not feeling too great. Parents decide to send child for a PCR test. One parent is a teacher, school send her home along. With the other two children in the family to isolate and await results. Should they all be isolating if parents double jabbed and have no symptoms ? Lateral flow tests are negative .
> Scogov say isolate if suspected case or in the same household. I’m sure that’s not the case now? My employer also says otherwise unless been contacted.



Since some date in August, here in England the double-jabbed and the under 18s don't need to isolate (if asymptomatic) even if the close contact is a household one and has +ve PCR. Don't know what the rules are in Scotland though.

My personal opinion is that, TBH, I think that if you _can _self-isolate while awaiting contact's PCR (and later if the contact's PCR is +ve) it's wise to do so, even if you remain asymptomatic throughout. You never know which person you might be in contact with is immunosuppressed, or is going home to an immunosuppressed loved one. 
Daily LF tests can be of some reassurance and you should, of course, wear a decent-quality mask whenever in the close company of others so that you are minimising the exposure of others to your possibly-infectious exhalations ...
.


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## mjr (15 Sep 2021)

UK Government autumn/winter plan published https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...covid-19-response-autumn-and-winter-plan-2021

I hope they have Plan C and D ready even if unpublished and I wish they would set quantitative limits for activating Plan B either regionally or nationally.


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## mjr (17 Sep 2021)

Italian government to require all workers to display Covid pass – https://www.thejournal.ie/italian-government-covid-pass-for-workers-5551435-Sep2021/

Italy joins Slovenia and Greece with this requirement. Could it happen here as part of an attempt to avoid another lockdown?


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## Milzy (17 Sep 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> SARS-COV-2: before it was (2019):
> https://overmatter.substack.com/p/the-november-story
> An excellent read: author is the Health Policy Editor for the Economist.


It’s only a coincidence that China has done the best financially out of it all despite ground zero been there. O_o


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## Ming the Merciless (17 Sep 2021)

Ordered some more free lateral flow test kits before they start charging for them.


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## mjr (17 Sep 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Ordered some more free lateral flow test kits before they start charging for them.


I saw today at the pharmacy that they will have to be ordered online for collection from next month. No mention of charging. How much will they be?

Isn't making testing more difficult the opposite of what we need now?


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## Ming the Merciless (17 Sep 2021)

mjr said:


> I saw today at the pharmacy that they will have to be ordered online for collection from next month. No mention of charging. How much will they be?
> 
> Isn't making testing more difficult the opposite of what we need now?



I heard £4 a pack of 7 LFTs.


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## midlife (17 Sep 2021)

Our Hospital are stopping distributing the Innova LFT's from our own stores and making us go to outside NHS sources. They have told us that they will still continue to be free likewise PCR.


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## mjr (17 Sep 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> I heard £4 a pack of 7 LFTs.


All I found so far is this: "The Government will therefore continue to provide the public with access to free lateral flow tests in the coming months. People may wish to use regular rapid testing to help manage periods of risk such as after close contact with others in a higher risk environment, or before spending prolonged time with a more vulnerable person. At a later stage, as the Government’s response to the virus changes, universal free provision of LFDs will end, and individuals and businesses using the tests will bear the cost."

COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 - GOV.UK – https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...covid-19-response-autumn-and-winter-plan-2021

Bonkers.


----------



## mjr (20 Sep 2021)

France TV think they have case numbers in decline and can look at more relaxations of rules. I wonder how this ties up with the UV/summer/autumn theory?






Interesting to see how different it is to the UK (from coronavirus.data.gov.uk):


----------



## Ajax Bay (21 Sep 2021)

@gzoom said (on the anti-vaxxer thread) dragging it across here.
"Had my first booster/third dosage today. Am not entirely sure how/why any one still wouldn't want the vaccine.
"Having spent the best part of Jan-March this year watching pretty helplessness people I the pleasure to look after pass away from COVID, the vaccines have made a massive difference to outcomes.
"A few weekends ago I gave Tocilizumab to three people whom had been vaccinated but still got COVID, followed by conversations with ITU and their respective families. Amazingly all of them pulled through without the need for ITU (unlike in Jan-March).
"Its looking like the virus is almost certainly going to stay, but if the vaccine becomes rolled into one with the Flu jab than life can carry on as normal to a large degree.
"I've some how have made this long without even needing a PCR COVID test despite almost 100% certain exposure to the virus in reasonable concentrations during the last 18 months. I *might* an asymptomatic carrier, or just not be affected badly, but I've seen enough of what this virus can do to the unvaccinated, and I'll happily have as many booster jabs from any company at any interval for the foresable future."


----------



## KnittyNorah (21 Sep 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> @gzoom said (on the anti-vaxxer thread) dragging it across here.
> "Had my first booster/third dosage today. Am not entirely sure how/why any one still wouldn't want the vaccine.
> "Having spent the best part of Jan-March this year watching pretty helplessness people I the pleasure to look after pass away from COVID, the vaccines have made a massive difference to outcomes.
> "A few weekends ago I gave Tocilizumab to three people whom had been vaccinated but still got COVID, followed by conversations with ITU and their respective families. Amazingly all of them pulled through without the need for ITU (unlike in Jan-March).
> ...



Yep - agree entirely with his post. I'm going to get my flu jab this week at a local pharmacy and am waiting eagerly for my C-19 booster call-up - won't be until next month at the earliest according to the timings I've read.


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## Johnno260 (22 Sep 2021)

I can’t see why the vaccines can’t be celebrated for the marvel of modern medicine they are, the time and effort put into them to bring them to the public in the timeframes involved is a testament to modern medicine.

I just assume the anti vax are anti science in general.


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## shep (22 Sep 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> I just assume the anti vax are anti science in general.


They're Morons, that's what they are.


----------



## icowden (22 Sep 2021)

Agreed. I have to say that this one baffles me:-

https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/unvaccinated-frontline-nhs-staff-to-be-redeployed/



> “There are however, serious concerns around mandating vaccines. Like the wider population, health and care staff are a diverse group and there are both physical and societal barriers for some on the take up for the vaccine.
> 
> “The RCN do not support staff being made or coerced into having the vaccine.
> 
> ...



If you are a Registered Nurse, and don't believe that vaccinations work, how are you able to be a Registered Nurse? Either you believe in medicine and want to treat people (including yourself), or you don't.


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## MrGrumpy (22 Sep 2021)

Anti vax protesters up here at a Bathgate vaccination centre . Massive queues now on the M8 , I’m guessing it might be too do with the 12-15 yr olds now being eligible ?
Either way still fuds .


----------



## KnittyNorah (22 Sep 2021)

icowden said:


> Agreed. I have to say that this one baffles me:-
> https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/unvaccinated-frontline-nhs-staff-to-be-redeployed/
> If you are a Registered Nurse, and don't believe that vaccinations work, how are you able to be a Registered Nurse? Either you believe in medicine and want to treat people (including yourself), or you don't.



That it's not quite as simple as it might appear. Of course there are weirdos in nursing, just as there are in any profession, but I'm not talking about those.

There may well be 'reasons' - not reasons you or I might consider valid, but valid reasons nonetheless - for some healthcare staff to refuse to accept vaccines with _certain specific components. _This is often, although not always, faith based.
Leaders of the major faith 'systems' have made pronouncements and decisions on most current vaccines and medications, stating their acceptability (or otherwise) and giving their reasons for doing so.
AFAIK, current C-19 vaccinations available in this country are all acceptable wrt foetal cell lines, porcine and bovine products, which are the major stumbling blocks in acceptability to the RC, Muslim, Jewish and Hindu populations. HOWEVER not all factions of all faiths are 'covered' by what the 'normal' top man (and it is _always_ a man, still!) says, and in addition I can see where strict vegetarians and, especially, vegans, might have uncertainty about the vaccine's acceptability for themselves.
Further to that, there will be health professionals who for various legitimate reasons cannot _physically _have the jab.

So, someone can be a perfectly competent and caring nurse (or physio, phlebotomist, radiographer etc etc) but be opposed to the use of a vaccination developed with the use of eg foetal cell lines _on themselves. _I'm sure it's not an easy decision to make (to refuse it on the grounds of faith/principle etc) as it will inevitably affect one's entire career - but it _shouldn't _be an easy decision to make, and it _needs _to have consequences.

Many years ago I was in a similar, though not entirely comparable, position, in that I needed to show a positive rubella titre before I could start work on a research project. I'd not had German Measles as a child but it had always been assumed that I'd had a subclinical case. Testing showed no antibody titre. FOUR (or was it five?) vaccinations for rubella later, I still showed no titre and my research position was rescinded through no fault of anyone. I took a different path and it actually turned out more interesting ...
ETA the concern was not about me catching rubella, but about my ability to pass rubella on to the often- or possibly-pregnant women I'd be working with, and thus _badly _damage an unborn baby.


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## icowden (22 Sep 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> That it's not quite as simple as it might appear. Of course there are weirdos in nursing, just as there are in any profession, but I'm not talking about those.
> Further to that, there will be health professionals who for various legitimate reasons cannot _physically _have the jab.



I get that there are some people who for health reasons cannot have the immunisation. Most faiths have "exceptions" for medical emergencies (even Islam). I don't agree that faith should come before science. If you work in a scientific profession treating patients, then whichever cloud dwelling super being you like to believe in takes second place.


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## KnittyNorah (22 Sep 2021)

icowden said:


> I get that there are some people who for health reasons cannot have the immunisation. Most faiths have "exceptions" for medical emergencies (even Islam). I don't agree that faith should come before science. If you work in a scientific profession treating patients, then whichever cloud dwelling super being you like to believe in takes second place.



It's not just emergencies there are exceptions for - for example, many porcine 'products' are considered perfectly acceptable and 'halal' in Islam, when the product in question has been 'broken down' into what might be termed its constituent parts eg porcine peptides. A pharmacist has every right to refuse to dispense the morning-after pill, if their conscience forbids it - but must, without derogatory or other comment, refer the patient directly to another pharmacist who does not have such 'scruples'. A person can have deeply held beliefs about the use of certain foetal cell lines and withdraw consent for products developed with the use of them, to be used in their own body, while accepting that others may - and do - believe differently. People have every right to these beliefs; it does not make them a 'lesser' nurse or pharmacist or whatever but it does - quite rightly IMO - restrict which jobs they are eligible for within their profession, and remove a little of their 'freedom' to practise. 

If the jobs restriction is through no decision or 'fault' of their own - as it was in my case with the absent response to rubella vaccination - then it is the right thing to do to help the person find, if possible, an appropriate job which offers similar (or in my case, actually better!) opportunities. 
If the jobs restriction is because of their own decision or beliefs, then they must accept that they will be redeployed almost 'at will', probably to a job they would never normally have considered. Certainly many, if not most, opportunities for further advancement, job changes, promotion etc will be unavailable to them, as I believe there will be increasing, rather than decreasing, expectation for evidence of vaccination in all walks of life and especially in the caring professions. 

I'm not worried about it - I think it will only affect a very small number of people, who, if they are still working in a hospital or other clinical patient-facing location, will be followed like a hawk by whatever testing regime is operational and most of whom will end up getting the jab eventually or otherwise demonstrating antibodies on testing.


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## midlife (22 Sep 2021)

Our ITU is full again and spilling over into the recovery area......


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## Mo1959 (22 Sep 2021)

midlife said:


> Our ITU is full again and spilling over into the recovery area......


……….yet we keep getting told 80% of the population are vaccinated and shouldn’t end up in hospital?


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## roubaixtuesday (22 Sep 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> ……….yet we keep getting told 80% of the population are vaccinated and shouldn’t end up in hospital?



Infection rates are very high - not far off their all time peak according to the ONS survey






Vaccines are IIRC about 90% effective.

So a lot of people are still being hospitalised - those not vaccinated and the unlucky 10% who are still susceptible despite being vaccinated.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...uscovid19infectionsurveypilot/17september2021


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## icowden (22 Sep 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> ……….yet we keep getting told 80% of the population are vaccinated and shouldn’t end up in hospital?


That isn't quite what you are being told.
80% of the population are vaccinated and therefore are at _decreased risk_ of ending up in hospital. Of those that are hospitalised those vaccinated are less likely to end up in critical care. Therefore for adults it is a *good thing*.

Hence we get the nutcases saying things like "most people dying from Covid19 have been immunised", which equates with "most people dying in car accidents are wearing seatbelts". It doesn't mean that vaccination or seatbelts are "bad".


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## lazybloke (22 Sep 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> ……….yet we keep getting told 80% of the population are vaccinated and shouldn’t end up in hospital?


Headline percentages in news conferences are typically excluded children.

"Our wold in data" calculate as a percentage of UK population and say only 66.8% are fully jabbed.
22 million are not,.
Perhaps not so bad if these potential superspreaders are spaced out across the wider population, but most of them will be the young, who all congregate in tightly packed classrooms, etc.
The latest uptick in infections might correspond to UK schools returning in early Sept.
Those infections then come back to the older generations, none of whom have perfect protection. 

We have to live with it, covid isn't likely to go away, even if/when we're all jabbed.

On a slightly more positive note, a number of those 22 million will have acquired antibodies via past infection, so hopefully are not infection vectors at the present time.


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## Milzy (22 Sep 2021)

Brazil are having none of the vaccine yet they just carry on with life. If there were so many deaths there then they’d ask to buy some vaccinations. 
It’s all about making money for Big Pharma. In 2 years I’ve known one person who was old and extremely over weight suffer symptoms quite bad & he made a full natural recovery.


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## Rocky (22 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> Brazil are having none of the vaccine yet they just carry on with life. If there were so many deaths there then they’d ask to buy some vaccinations.
> It’s all about making money for Big Pharma. In 2 years I’ve known one person who was old and extremely over weight suffer symptoms quite bad & he made a full natural recovery.


I’ve had two of my immediate family die from Covid (last December) before the vaccine was available. I hope you don’t mind me saying that your post is utter bollocks.


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## Rocky (22 Sep 2021)

......and just to add some hard facts: as of 19 Sep, 69.3% of the population of Brazil has had at least one dose of vaccine and 38.1% is fully vaccinated.

Source: Our World in Data


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## Milzy (22 Sep 2021)

Rocky said:


> ......and just to add some hard facts: as of 19 Sep, 69.3% of the population of Brazil has had at least one dose of vaccine and 38.1% is fully vaccinated.
> 
> Source: Our World in Data


Fantastic news, it seemed like their PM really didn’t give a hoot about them to begin with.


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## MrGrumpy (22 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> Brazil are having none of the vaccine yet they just carry on with life. If there were so many deaths there then they’d ask to buy some vaccinations.
> It’s all about making money for Big Pharma. In 2 years I’ve known one person who was old and extremely over weight suffer symptoms quite bad & he made a full natural recovery.


You obviously don’t know very many I know off three people this last year who were in ITU ventilated  . My wife lost several of her clients last year due to complications due to covid . Let’s not be to blasé, yes we have to live with it.


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## Milzy (22 Sep 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> You obviously don’t know very many I know off three people this last year who were in ITU ventilated  . My wife lost several of her clients last year due to complications due to covid . Let’s not be to blasé, yes we have to live with it.


Sorry to here that but there is an agenda behind the whole virus. Did they die “of” or “with” Covid?


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## Rocky (22 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> Sorry to here that but there is an agenda behind the whole virus. Did they die “of” or “with” Covid?


I think you should stop posting this stuff. Covid is real. It has killed 135,000+ in the UK. My son, as a junior doctor on a Covid ward held the hands of over 20 patients who literally drowned dying of Covid - it is a horrible horrible death. Those dying are alone and scared. There is no debate about how serious this virus is - unless of course you are an airhead Covid-denier.


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## MrGrumpy (22 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> Sorry to here that but there is an agenda behind the whole virus. Did they die “of” or “with” Covid?


Not seeing the agenda ?? COVID put them into hospitals with all respiratory crap it brings ? A lot of the folk my age that caught COVID have said they have never felt so crap in all their lives ! Yep they didn’t end up in hospital but it kicked the sh…t out of them .


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## vickster (22 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> Fantastic news, it seemed like their PM really didn’t give a hoot about them to begin with.


Cos he is an peanut from the same mould as Trump 
Over half a million Brazilians have already died with/of Covid


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## Alex321 (22 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> Sorry to here that but there is an agenda behind the whole virus. Did they die “of” or “with” Covid?


What exactly do you believe is this "agenda"?

Millions of people around the world have died because of it. Hundreds of thousands in this country alone. Many millions more have been severely ill. 

Health services around the world have been overwhelmed or very close to it. The NHS has been very close on a few occasions.

So what is the "agenda"?


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## roubaixtuesday (22 Sep 2021)

@Milzy if I understood you correctly, you've previously posted that rather believing this covid denial stuff, you're playing the part of people you've observed doing it for real?

Reading the replies here, if that's the case, it might be time to consider stopping? Or at least making it very clear what you're about.


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## vickster (22 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> Sorry to here that but there is an agenda behind the whole virus. Did they die “of” or “with” Covid?


Are you still on a wind up as above? 🤷‍♀️


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## KnittyNorah (22 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> Brazil are having none of the vaccine yet they just carry on with life. If there were so many deaths there then they’d ask to buy some vaccinations.
> It’s all about making money for Big Pharma. In 2 years I’ve known one person who was old and extremely over weight suffer symptoms quite bad & he made a full natural recovery.



Two years? The virus was unknown two years ago. 
Brazil is vaccinating frantically; as of 21 Sept, according to the CDC 73.2% of the population have received at least one dose, 40.9% have received two. According to Worldometer, there have been around 600,000 deaths from C-19 in Brazil since the start of the epidemic and that is likely to be an underestimate.

I don't know from what arithmetic book you get your numbers - one written by someone who has a severe case of dyscalculia I think!


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## icowden (23 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> Sorry to here that but there is an agenda behind the whole virus. Did they die “of” or “with” Covid?



Couldn't leave it. Whether you die "of" or "with" is irrelevant. Covid may kill you by suffocating you (of) or it may be that you have a heart attack as you desperately try to breath, in which case it is "with". Either way, it is Covid's involvement that has killed you. Yes of course, the main source of deaths is elderly, and vulnerable people, but there are also many deaths of people who were fit and healthy. There are also fit and healthy people who are still trying to recover from "long covid". This is a nasty virus. Vaccination helps to ensure that if you are infected, your body has a head start in fighting it off.

The school age immunisations are a more interesting conundrum in that the virus has not been problematic for children, generally speaking. Doctors are a little divided as to the benefits of a school age immunisation programme. The key benefit is that children are spreading the virus and school age immunisation would help reduce this spread and the risk of infecting adults, rather than because it is necessarily a dangerous illness for children. In the same way, we vaccinate against Rubella, not because it is dangerous to children, but because of the risk of acquiring it during pregnancy which can cause serious in-utero problems.


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## KnittyNorah (23 Sep 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> @Milzy if I understood you correctly, you've previously posted that rather believing this covid denial stuff, you're playing the part of people you've observed doing it for real?
> 
> Reading the replies here, if that's the case, it might be time to consider stopping? Or at least making it very clear what you're about.



Actually I think Milzy's posts are useful. I don't know anyone IRL who is an anti-vaxxer (although plenty are a bit confused about how vaccines actually _work, _but that's OK; I'm often confused about how things work_) _so I appreciate the chance to 'practice' rebuttals. I run a small niche group for machine knitters who use a specific type of machine, and we have one member who has posted anti-vaxx stuff; it's good to be prepared and have practiced in advance!


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Sep 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> Actually I think Milzy's posts are useful. I don't know anyone IRL who is an anti-vaxxer (although plenty are a bit confused about how vaccines actually _work, _but that's OK; I'm often confused about how things work_) _so I appreciate the chance to 'practice' rebuttals. I run a small niche group for machine knitters who use a specific type of machine, and we have one member who has posted anti-vaxx stuff; it's good to be prepared and have practiced in advance!



I've no objection to @Milzy posts per se, but I think they are misleading some people as per the responses above. Would be useful to be clear if "playing a role" or actually holding opinions I think.


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## KnittyNorah (23 Sep 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I've no objection to @Milzy posts per se, but I think they are misleading some people as per the responses above. Would be useful to be clear if "playing a role" or actually holding opinions I think.



I think it's fairly clear that he's 'playing a role' - he 'likes' the clear, factual rebuttals that are offered! But you are right that some people, especially those coming in newly to the thread, might be misled. Perhaps 'posting as the Devil's Advocate' or something, might make it more obvious!


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## fossyant (23 Sep 2021)

icowden said:


> Couldn't leave it. Whether you die "of" or "with" is irrelevant. Covid may kill you by suffocating you (of) or it may be that you have a heart attack as you desperately try to breath, in which case it is "with". Either way, it is Covid's involvement that has killed you. Yes of course, the main source of deaths is elderly, and vulnerable people, but there are also many deaths of people who were fit and healthy. There are also fit and healthy people who are still trying to recover from "long covid". This is a nasty virus. Vaccination helps to ensure that if you are infected, your body has a head start in fighting it off.



This is the issue @Milzy.

Coming back into the office there are loads of staff who have relatives badly affected. One died of a heart attach whilst in hospital with covid aged just 60, another girl's dad caught it and ended up in ICU, and is suffering long covid now. 

I've a mate who couldn't be bothered/didn't need it. Ended up in ICU and now has long covid.

The issue for most of us is the virus is a lottery, you might be fine, but, and something that's almost as devastating as being dead from it, is the long term damage and post viral issues - that really farks up your life, and I know of enough cases of that now.

You are talking 'rubbish' to put it politely, and it's these views, and those more extreme that are leading on the anti-vax nutters !


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## fossyant (23 Sep 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> I think it's fairly clear that he's 'playing a role' - he 'likes' the clear, factual rebuttals that are offered! But you are right that some people, especially those coming in newly to the thread, might be misled. Perhaps 'posting as the Devil's Advocate' or something, might make it more obvious!



Too many facts point against his 'view' / trolling.


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## fossyant (23 Sep 2021)

With coming back to work, everyone is asking how you've been. I'm being very careful and asking "how have you and your families been", as I'm seeing enough colleagues who have had a relative suffer badly (or even themselves). It's OK running round saying 'Im alright Jack'. but there are many folks that have been affected. No-one in my family has been ill, but there is a minority of members here that are of the 'I'm alright Jack' mentality.


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## KnittyNorah (23 Sep 2021)

fossyant said:


> Too many facts point against his 'view' / trolling.


I know that and you know that and I'm certain Milzy knows that; however he's said more than once that he's merely repeating the sort of things he's been told by anti-vaxxers. 
I think the issue/problem might be that he's doing it without further comment or explanation in each and every post. I can understand both PsOV about it.


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## KnittyNorah (23 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> Sorry to here that but there is an agenda behind the whole virus. Did they die “of” or “with” Covid?



Milzy, can 'you' tell me more about this agenda?


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## Alex321 (23 Sep 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> I think it's fairly clear that he's 'playing a role' - he 'likes' the clear, factual rebuttals that are offered! But you are right that some people, especially those coming in newly to the thread, might be misled. Perhaps 'posting as the Devil's Advocate' or something, might make it more obvious!


Yeah, I didn't get that at all, being new here.


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## DCLane (23 Sep 2021)

Students are back at my university; from what I've seen to date none are wearing face coverings and they're partying hard. Teaching starts Monday and I'm expecting issues soon after.

Son no. 2's school went against DofE advice and made face coverings mandatory again from today following a large increase in cases in the school.

SWMBO has been told to get her kit ready for when they re-open her hospital's Covid wards, expected to be soon. She's had enough experience to know when things are getting difficult. It'll mean another long, hard winter as she keeps patients nutritionally well whilst they're on a ventilator: it's through a tube and her patients have often lost their swallowing ability (usually temporary, sometimes permanently).

There's too many I know died and the trauma my wife's gone through for me to have patience with trolls/anti-vaxxers.


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## Milzy (23 Sep 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> I think it's fairly clear that he's 'playing a role' - he 'likes' the clear, factual rebuttals that are offered! But you are right that some people, especially those coming in newly to the thread, might be misled. Perhaps 'posting as the Devil's Advocate' or something, might make it more obvious!


All I’m saying is don’t believe everything you see in mainstream media. Has there ever been any false flags over the last 50 years or so? I’d say there has been many.


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## DaveReading (23 Sep 2021)

Milzy said:


> All I’m saying is don’t believe everything you see in mainstream media. Has there ever been any false flags over the last 50 years or so? I’d say there has been many.



A short list of the other conspiracy theories that you subscribe to might help to put your recent posts in context.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Sep 2021)

lazybloke said:


> The latest uptick in infections might correspond to UK schools returning in early Sept.


That's a 'might'. Don't think there's evidence in the figures that that happened linked to the start of the school term. Too much noise. And effects of increased LFT funnelling to increased PCRs detecting more cases (rather than there Being more cases) - see https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing.
Edit: But case rates in under 19s are high: of course few of them have had a second dose and under 16s have had neither. On the plus side very very few will become so poorly they need hospital - hence the dropping hospitalisation rate (down 20+% since 6 Sep) and consequently the bed occupancy number is well down from its peak (1012 (UK) ten days ago) (NB note in line with estimate from 3 months ago about peak bed occupancy numbers).


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## lazybloke (24 Sep 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> That's a 'might'. Don't think there's evidence in the figures that that happened linked to the start of the school term. Too much noise. And effects of increased LFT funnelling to increased PCRs detecting more cases (rather than there Being more cases) - see https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing.
> Edit: But case rates in under 19s are high: of course few of them have had a second dose and under 16s have had neither. On the plus side very very few will become so poorly they need hospital - hence the dropping hospitalisation rate (down 20+% since 6 Sep) and consequently the bed occupancy number is well down from its peak (1012 (UK) ten days ago) (NB note in line with estimate from 3 months ago about peak bed occupancy numbers).


To say that children are not at particular risk from covid is to miss the bigger picture.
Children need to be vaccinated because that's the only way to achieve herd immunity for everyone.

The elderly and the vulnerable have been double jabbed, but that gives only partial protection that diminishes over time. Exposing them to infected school children would be a mistake.

So of course the infection rates should be monitored, and I'm sure that uptick in infections during September will be under intense scrutiny.

It's not all doom & gloom; the worst of the pandemic is clearly behind us (in the UK). I would claim the same even if went into another lockdown, because vaccination has clearly been very beneficial. So let's finish the job.

There's one more reason to vaccinate the chidlren, and that's to ensure they have some protection against the next variants - which might not be so benign to them.
Sarah Gilbert predicted that covid would weaken over time, and eventually be no worse than a common cold. I certainly hope so, but the evolution of the variants so far suggests a different scenario. Let's continue jabbing.


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## Julia9054 (24 Sep 2021)

lazybloke said:


> Children need to be vaccinated because that's the only way to achieve herd immunity for everyone.


In addition, it's 10 days off school/sports/other activities when they get it. If I had teenage children I'd want them vaccinated.


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## Ajax Bay (24 Sep 2021)

The under 16s will get partial immunity one way or the other (vaccination or natural). Vaccination avoids the risk of 'long covid'. As @Julia9054 says, vaccination also minimises impact on the child's schooling and all those in their 'bubble'. Ours (over 18) are off to test their combined (double dose) vaccination and 'had it' immunity during freshers week.


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## icowden (24 Sep 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> That's a 'might'.



Nope it isn't. Covid is running through my daughters school and my wife's school like a fox through chickens. Most of my older daughters year is isolating. There were 2 students out of 8 in her music class (GCSE) yesterday. Adults are also to blame. We know of a large group of adults who became infected following a wine and cheese soiree for example. People are not bothering with precautions because Boris told them not to. Schools aren't able to cope with parents who just send their ill children to school.

The only group of people who still wear masks and observe strict hygiene principles are Clinicians. They must know something the rest of us don't. Its a conspiracy I tell ya!!


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## Ajax Bay (24 Sep 2021)

I said "That's a 'might'."


icowden said:


> Nope it isn't. Covid is running through my daughters school and my wife's school like a fox through chickens.


Anecdata, but might reflect wider experience.


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## KnittyNorah (24 Sep 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> 10 days off school/sports/other activities when they get it.



... and that's if it's symptomatic. If it's not - or if their parents send them to school anyway - they are likely going around distributing the generally-harmless-to-them virus all over the place_, _ placing any number of vulnerable people of all ages at more risk than they need to be. 

Mind you, how many non-masking adults are doing the same?

That is the reason we should still be masking when in confined indoor spaces with strangers - any one of us might be asymptomatically infectious, and able to infect the person next to us in the bus or crowd or queue who, unbeknownst to anyone, is one of that 10% who didn't respond to the vaccine or is otherwise vulnerable, yet who appears, currently, to be perfectly well.


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## Julia9054 (24 Sep 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I said "That's a 'might'."
> 
> Anecdata, but might reflect wider experience.


I am a teacher, know a lot of teachers in other schools and many of my colleagues are parents with children in different schools. Still anecdata but I can confirm that cases are increasing massively in schools. Currently 2.85% of pupils in my school are off with confirmed covid. As schools are no longer responsible for contact tracing, they are no longer able to tell all the parents in 8ab3 that little Johnny has covid due to confidentiality so rumours of who does or does not have it are circulating only through the kids or through parent WhatsApp groups. Pupils are supplied with lateral flow tests and are supposed to be testing at home twice a week but I think that many will not be due to parental/society’s view that it’s all over. 
In one group, we have reached the public health identified “threshold ” of 5 or more cases known to be close contacts so we have gone back to all pupils masked in corridors and the affected year group masked in lessons also. Pupils - who were very compliant last year - are noticeably less so this time reflectingwider societal attitudes


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## IaninSheffield (24 Sep 2021)

icowden said:


> People are not bothering with precautions because Boris told them not to.


Not quite.
Defending someone for whom I have no respect does not come easily, but it's important to strive for accuracy I feel. At the 14th Sept press conference Johnson said:


> We will continue to urge everyone to be sensible, to be responsible.
> Wash your hands.
> Use ventilation.
> Consider wearing a face covering in crowded places with people that you don’t know.


Admittedly, urging is not quite the same as instructing.


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## Supersuperleeds (24 Sep 2021)

Our lass works in a school and they've currently got more positive cases now than at any other time.


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## midlife (24 Sep 2021)

Some of my colleagues are off feeling pretty unwell having caught it off their children who picked it up from school.


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## Alex321 (24 Sep 2021)

midlife said:


> Some of my colleagues are off feeling pretty unwell having caught it off their children who picked it up from school.


That happened a fortnight ago to my daughter in Scotland (Schools there went back earlier than England & Wales). We had been due to go up to visit them, but couldn't because of that. Both she and her son are recovered now though (she was fully vaccinated), and her husband and other son had it last year, so didn't get it this time.


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## midlife (24 Sep 2021)

Glad to hear they have recovered. 

Seems odd to wear PPE all day at work including FFP3 respirators if needed and then come home and catch it off your children. The saving grace is that they are fully vaccinated. Bookings open for boosters at work on Monday but they will only do Covid and flu at the same time. The will not do one or the other....


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## Alex321 (24 Sep 2021)

midlife said:


> Glad to hear they have recovered.
> 
> Seems odd to wear PPE all day at work including FFP3 respirators if needed and then come home and catch it off your children. The saving grace is that they are fully vaccinated. Bookings open for boosters at work on Monday but they will only do Covid and flu at the same time. The will not do one or the other....


I'd prefer to get them both at the same time, but suspect that won't be an option here. I have my flu jab booked for November, but don't know when Covid boosters will be available - could even be sooner.


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## mjr (25 Sep 2021)

lazybloke said:


> To say that children are not at particular risk from covid is to miss the bigger picture.
> Children need to be vaccinated because that's the only way to achieve herd immunity for everyone.
> 
> The elderly and the vulnerable have been double jabbed, but that gives only partial protection that diminishes over time. Exposing them to infected school children would be a mistake.


Children should be vaccinated as soon as it's considered safe enough, in order to spare them the mental health damage of believing they may have killed their elderly or vulnerable relatives.


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## mjr (25 Sep 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> I think it's fairly clear that he's 'playing a role' - he 'likes' the clear, factual rebuttals that are offered! But you are right that some people, especially those coming in newly to the thread, might be misled. Perhaps 'posting as the Devil's Advocate' or something, might make it more obvious!


It's just as well there's no rule in here prohibiting posting views one doesn't hold in order to provoke angry responses(!)


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## DaveReading (25 Sep 2021)

One could even argue that he's providing a public service with his endless procession of straw men.


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## matticus (27 Sep 2021)

DaveReading said:


> One could even argue that he's providing a public service with his endless procession of* straw men*.


Do you mean as fuel? I haven't heard of any fuel shortage, perhaps I'm not paying attention ... 

</satire>
</possibly mediocre>


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## MrGrumpy (27 Sep 2021)

icowden said:


> Nope it isn't. Covid is running through my daughters school and my wife's school like a fox through chickens. Most of my older daughters year is isolating. There were 2 students out of 8 in her music class (GCSE) yesterday. Adults are also to blame. We know of a large group of adults who became infected following a wine and cheese soiree for example. People are not bothering with precautions because Boris told them not to. Schools aren't able to cope with parents who just send their ill children to school.
> 
> The only group of people who still wear masks and observe strict hygiene principles are Clinicians. They must know something the rest of us don't. Its a conspiracy I tell ya!!


Think To a certain degree us north of the border are still wearing masks at work and inside settings. The Führer got that right  or did it matter ? Has to made a difference? I’m not so sure but my wife Who is far more qualified than me thinks it was the best idea !


----------



## The Central Scrutinizer (27 Sep 2021)

Tim Spector blames the government for not informing the public about these new symptoms, which has triggered the high number of infections the UK is still experiencing.

This week, he said: “The UK still has more cases than most of Europe and I believe this is for two main reasons; the first is a lack of masks and social distancing and the second is because we’re ignorant of the symptoms.
“We should be looking out for things like sore throat, running nose and sneezing.

“The classic three – cough, fever and anosmia [loss of taste or smell] are rarer these days, yet the government has done nothing.
“By not updating advice, we’re letting people into care homes, schools, workplaces and large gatherings displaying known signs of Covid.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When i read this i thought to myself this is so bang on.
I thought i had a cold but when i done a lateral flow test at home it came back positive.I then went and had a PCR test the same day and today it came back also positive.
If you go on the government website to book a test it is still asking you about the old original symptoms so how many people are walking about thinking they are just under the weather or have colds when in fact they have got covid?
I am double jabbed and always wear a mask on public transport but it seems now i am in the minority.
I have the feeling i could have caught this on a train going to london which was crowded and hardly anyone wearing masks.


----------



## mjr (27 Sep 2021)

The Central Scrutinizer said:


> I have the feeling i could have caught this on a train going to london which was crowded and hardly anyone wearing masks.


And you're blaming the government for not publicising the current symptoms? I'd blame them for not requiring masks and effective ventilation on crowded trains...


----------



## Alex321 (27 Sep 2021)

mjr said:


> And you're blaming the government for not publicising the current symptoms? I'd blame them for not requiring masks and effective ventilation on crowded trains...



Both are factors, and they are to blame for both.

Here in Wales, we still have to wear masks on public transport and in indoor public spaces except hospitality venues.


----------



## icowden (28 Sep 2021)

Alex321 said:


> Here in Wales, we still have to wear masks on public transport and in indoor public spaces except hospitality venues.



Whereas here in England we just have false platitudes.
Our local Sainsbury has big signs:



> Although wearing a mask is now a personal choice, we are asking our customers to keep wearing masks in order to keep our colleagues and other customers safe.



Fair enough, you might think. Then you walk in and see 90% of the Sainsbury staff - the people being exposed to hundreds of different people every day and staying in the store *all* day, not wearing masks. I don't know if they are just uneducated in how masks work, or overconfident in their own immune systems - or just selfish. 

I did complain to Sainsbury, but again - you just get a nice e-mail saying they are asking staff to wear masks. 

The simple solution is this. No mask, no job. People working in the bakery or on the meat counter have to wear appropriate clothing, hair nets etc. There seems to be this cowardice about requiring people to adhere to a company policy. I try to avoid Sainsbury and Tesco as much as possible. Marks and Spencer were much better but now seem to have dropped mask wearing - but to be fair they don't have any signs up asking customers to wear masks.

All they need to understand is this:


----------



## Ajax Bay (2 Oct 2021)

Higher than average weekly deaths (2015-2019 ave) NOT from COVID-19 (from ONS stats): these normally run at <10,000 deaths a week in the UK 'summer' (May to autumn solstice). Knock on effect of diversion of health care resources to treating pandemic, and reluctance of people to get ailments checked out until they have progressed to a dangerous extent. Maybe some other lock-down related effects in there as well? Anyone link to an analysis of the reasons? No doubt government decisions (and indecisions) could (and will) be blamed, but not sure which ones.


----------



## lazybloke (2 Oct 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Higher than average weekly deaths (2015-2019 ave) NOT from COVID-19 (from ONS stats): these normally run at <10,000 deaths a week in the UK 'summer' (May to autumn solstice). Knock on effect of diversion of health care resources to treating pandemic, and reluctance of people to get ailments checked out until they have progressed to a dangerous extent. Maybe some other lock-down related effects in there as well? Anyone link to an analysis of the reasons? No doubt government decisions (and indecisions) could (and will) be blamed, but not sure which ones.
> View attachment 611806


My take away from that is that deaths have been steadily increasing since July. I don't see how with so many vaccinated this could jump massively. In other news, the infection rates in English secondary schools are alarming this week.


----------



## Julia9054 (2 Oct 2021)

lazybloke said:


> the infection rates in English secondary schools are alarming this week.


We are back to face masks in both corridors and classrooms from Monday having reached the public health defined threshold in all year groups.
Annoyingly for me as a science teacher, this also means no practical work


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Oct 2021)

The Central Scrutinizer said:


> Tim Spector blames the government for not informing the public about these new symptoms, which has triggered the high number of infections the UK is still experiencing.
> 
> This week, he said: “The UK still has more cases than most of Europe and I believe this is for two main reasons; the first is a lack of masks and social distancing and the second is because we’re ignorant of the symptoms.
> “We should be looking out for things like sore throat, running nose and sneezing.
> ...



I have sore throat, runny nose, earlier had cough and sneeze. Symptoms appeared 5 days after I’d been travelling long distance on trains. No other contact after that. My resting HR trend shows it building after I’d been travelling. Now 10-14 bpm over its typical first thing in morning resting value.

Lateral flow tests negative but now ordered PCR kit. Ordered PCR on basis on more than 3 coughing episodes in 24 hours yesterday. Not clear what they mean by episode. But certainly the coughing triggered more than 3 separate occasions.

Feels like typical cold but can’t be sure.


----------



## Johnno260 (3 Oct 2021)

Milzy said:


> Sorry to here that but there is an agenda behind the whole virus. Did they die “of” or “with” Covid?



I see this a lot “no one dies of Covid” you die of organ failure or asphyxiation as your lungs fill with fluid, it’s also a way death certificates are written the primary cause will be what killed the person, the pathogen is further down no one dies of the pathogen.

My uncle uses this a lot, it’s word play knowing how to manipulate how death certificates are written but the pathogen causes the catastrophic events that lead to the persons death.

Also anyone claiming the virus is used in some kind of agenda, with causing fear then it’s failed miserably, just look at all the London protests, if there was some uncaring evil cabal who wanted you vaccinated for nefarious reasons they would use a genetically altered ebola strain, people would be rioting to be vaccinated after a few deaths.

The only agenda is in paranoid peoples minds.


----------



## Milzy (3 Oct 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> I see this a lot “no one dies of Covid” you die of organ failure or asphyxiation as your lungs fill with fluid, it’s also a way death certificates are written the primary cause will be what killed the person, the pathogen is further down no one dies of the pathogen.
> 
> My uncle uses this a lot, it’s word play knowing how to manipulate how death certificates are written but the pathogen causes the catastrophic events that lead to the persons death.
> 
> ...


They are saying the Marburg virus is coming to make a scenario like that happen. It’s scary that they walk among us. A guy from school who was always a fairly intelligent guy is now making it his life’s work to fight against child vaccines. *face palm *


----------



## Ajax Bay (3 Oct 2021)

lazybloke said:


> My take away from that is that deaths have been steadily increasing since July. I don't see how with so many vaccinated this could jump massively. In other news, the infection rates in English secondary schools are alarming this week.


Well looking at the graph I shared and taking a 15 day moving average, deaths per day (all cause) have been rising since late April - not sure what you mean by steady: is that a log plot? From early Jul @ 22 to a peak on 6 Sep of 146, the death from COVID-19 rate has mercifully dropped >25%.
"I don't see how with so many vaccinated this could jump massively." Nor do I: because it didn't "jump massively". It gradually increased (doubling time of (average) 20 days, like a low, slow swell, which looks to half in 50 days (last 25 days' data). I expect a seasonality effect (less ventilation indoors) to slow the trailing slope of this wave through autumn.
If by age or morbidities an individual has a higher CFR, then a 90% protection of a double jab reduces that chance by an order of magnitude, but the chance is still way higher than an unvaccinated x year old (x<50). [This observation designed to address your "so many vaccinated" caveat.]
The "alarming rates in secondary schools" news is 'old news': that 15-19 cohort rate is falling off. But it did result (correlation) in an increase fifteen days (5 to catch it, 10 to pass it on within household) after term start in the parent age cohort (35-50s) and a slight one a week ago in the grandparent cohort (unvaccinated multi-generational households perhaps).


----------



## Ajax Bay (3 Oct 2021)

To help illustrate my last point on generations post return to school.
[Orange shows rates increasing; blue shows rates decreasing.]


----------



## Johnno260 (3 Oct 2021)

Milzy said:


> They are saying the Marburg virus is coming to make a scenario like that happen. It’s scary that they walk among us. A guy from school who was always a fairly intelligent guy is now making it his life’s work to fight against child vaccines. *face palm *



Much of what they say it’s a manipulation of something, anti’s have been doing this with death certificates since early on.

The paranoia these people live with is astounding.

All I can say is they’re totally anti science as the efforts done to produce a vaccine in this timeframe that’s measurably safer than other vaccines introduced since 2011 should be something that’s celebrated.


----------



## lazybloke (3 Oct 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Well looking at the graph I shared and taking a 15 day moving average, deaths per day (all cause) have been rising since late April - not sure what you mean by steady: is that a log plot? From early Jul @ 22 to a peak on 6 Sep of 146, the death from COVID-19 rate has mercifully dropped >25%.
> "I don't see how with so many vaccinated this could jump massively." Nor do I: because it didn't "jump massively". It gradually increased (doubling time of (average) 20 days, like a low, slow swell (@mjr  ), which looks to half in 50 days (last 25 days' data). I expect a seasonality effect (less ventilation indoors) to slow the trailing slope of this wave through autumn.
> If by age or morbidities an individual has a higher CFR, then a 90% protection of a double jab reduces that chance by an order of magnitude, but the chance is still way higher than an unvaccinated x year old (x<50). [This observation designed to address your "so many vaccinated" caveat.]
> The "alarming rates in secondary schools" news is 'old news': that 15-19 cohort rate is falling off. But it did result (correlation) in an increase fifteen days (5 to catch it, 10 to pass it on within household) after term start in the parent age cohort (35-50s) and a slight one a week ago in the grandparent cohort (unvaccinated multi-generational households perhaps).


Might be "Old news" to you but I was commenting on what I assumed was a very recent BBC news report that showed a near doubling of cases since the previous week. Seems fairly massive to me, albeit only in a specific age group - but all eyes are on that age group since they went back to school as the vaccinations are late. (Later thanbother age groups). 
, 1 in 20 of that age group are positive, i believe this is the highest at any time in the whole pandemic. 

It's why I looked at deaths next, and was relieved to see that growth rates there are "steady".
That's steady in the sense of plain English, a casual comment, not a mathematical analysis.

Okay with you?


----------



## KnittyNorah (3 Oct 2021)

What is very easy to forget in the media-driven frenzy of the present time, is that the anti-vaxxer rhetoric has been running, almost unchanged (other than for minor details), for somewhat more than 200 years. 

Although the world has changed greatly, the emotions, deep-rooted beliefs and oppositional 'arguments' - whether scientific/anti-scientific, economic, philosophical, political, or spiritual - that underlie vaccine opposition have remained very much the same since Edward Jenner introduced vaccination.

Clearly there is 'something' in many people which predisposes them to this 'set of beliefs'. What it is, I do not know. Just as there are supposedly-'qualified' nurses and doctors in this group of people today, so there were back in the early 1800s. One doctor in particular, who still supported the older system of variolation for providing immunity from smallpox, described fictional side effects from Jenner's cowpox vaccination such as 'cowpox face', and speculated that British women 'might wander in the fields to receive the embraces of the bull.' 

We may laugh at those claims now, with our 'superior' knowledge, but apart from small details such as that (today's details are that your DNA will be changed - much the same, in essence!), the protests in the 19thC would be perfectly recognisable as something that could happen today, albeit the clothing worn by the participants, and the type of media coverage would differ. Mere details, once again. 

In Leicester, there was a march of an estimated 100,000 people against compulsory vaccination; they carried child-sized coffins and beheaded an effigy of Edward Jenner. In Montreal, more than a thousand people gathered outside a provincial health board office to smash windows, and break doors; gunshots were reportedly heard. 
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose ...

Caricaturists and cartoonists of the time excelled themselves in some of their illustrations of the claims of those early anti-vaxxers. Vaccination had become quite widespread in France and England by the beginning of the 19th century and was energetically attacked by fearmongers in satirical pamphlets showing victims acquiring vaccine-host-animal qualities or worse.





Gare la Vaccine - Triomphe de la Petite Verole
(Mind the Vaccine, Triumph of Smallpox)


----------



## Ajax Bay (3 Oct 2021)

lazybloke said:


> I looked at deaths next, and was relieved to see that growth rates there are "steady".
> That's steady in the sense of plain English, a casual comment, not a mathematical analysis.


Of course it's 'OK with me'. But, with a nod to your forum name, suggesting that COVID-19 associated deaths per day are "growing steadily" is not 'lazy': I've managed to mislead. The first graph I shared showed that ALL CAUSE death rate had steadily risen since late April. I was concerned you'd misunderstood.
Here's the graph of UK deaths (Open source gov.uk; I don't like using such data but you raised the issue) from early July till 29 Sep.
The growth rate is steady till 9 Sep, gentle, then a steep (steady?) fall since 20 Sep (>25% in 9 days): good news.
Further falls are built in since hospital admissions have been falling since 6 Sep (1015 down to 723) and C-19 bed occupancy since 12 Sep (about 8300 to <7000).
The continuing high case rate around the country (UK) is affording many of those who won't get vaccinated or haven't been offered it (Under 15.75s) 'natural immunity' if they survive: at a cost of risk of long covid and disruption to their schooling and 'life'.


----------



## Johnno260 (3 Oct 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> What is very easy to forget in the media-driven frenzy of the present time, is that the anti-vaxxer rhetoric has been running, almost unchanged (other than for minor details), for somewhat more than 200 years.
> 
> Although the world has changed greatly, the emotions, deep-rooted beliefs and oppositional 'arguments' - whether scientific/anti-scientific, economic, philosophical, political, or spiritual - that underlie vaccine opposition have remained very much the same since Edward Jenner introduced vaccination.
> 
> ...



The fact that their arguments haven’t really changed in that period says it all really, it’s just anti science/progression.

As soon as I hear the phrase do your own research, I just end up retorting research with trash resources is still garbage.


----------



## midlife (5 Oct 2021)

Just had Covid booster in one arm and flu in the other at work. Hub was very busy and we are directly emailed to book.

Our service seems to be at a steady state with about 30 sick people with covid at any one time. Way below the 300 at the height but enough to fill ITU and spill over into recovery.


----------



## mjr (22 Oct 2021)

Latvia is having a new lockdown, closing most shops, hospitality, entertainment and schools, and imposing a 2000-0500 curfew. Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins called it unfair and said "I have to apologise to the already vaccinated" which is only 54% of their population. The Latvian President tested positive last week. Latvia has 827 cases per 100k this week (UK is currently 455 cases/100k with 67.8% vaccinated, both from OurWorldInData). https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...eks-lockdown-covid-19-cases-spike-2021-10-18/

Case numbers are also looking bad in Lithuania, Estonia and Romania, with Romania having by far the highest death rate and its population only 30% vaccinated. Bulgaria is also having an above-average death rate with its population only 20% vaccinated.

Ireland is slowing its planned reopening as both cases and hospitalisations rise there (despite case numbers well below UK at 265/100k and vaccination slightly higher at 75%). Nightclubs and late bars will reopen after 19 months closed and stadium sports return to full capacity, but bars remain mostly seated in tables of maximum 10 and other live venues stay all-seater with capacity limits. The general work-from-home advice also remains in place. https://www.thejournal.ie/22-october-reopening-5581039-Oct2021/


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## roubaixtuesday (22 Oct 2021)

mjr said:


> Romania having by far the highest death rate and its population only 30% vaccinated



Romania seems to be a disaster area right now, population only ~20 million but nearly half the total EU deaths.


----------



## mjr (22 Oct 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Romania seems to be a disaster area right now, population only ~20 million but nearly half the total EU deaths.


I think you mean nearly half this week, not half the total. In absolute terms, they're only the sixth-highest, but still disproportionately badly (they're seventhmost-populous EU country but only about half the people of the sixthmost, Poland), worsening quickly, and all a bit worrying for those with family connections there.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (22 Oct 2021)

mjr said:


> I think you mean nearly half this week, not half the total. In absolute terms, they're only the sixth-highest, but still disproportionately badly (they're seventhmost-populous EU country but only about half the people of the sixthmost, Poland), worsening quickly, and all a bit worrying for those with family connections there.



Yes, I meant half of the current total deaths in the EU, not half the cumulative total. Awful situation.


----------



## mjr (26 Oct 2021)

Romania and Bulgaria have introduced restrictions including mask mandates, wide use of the Covid pass and curfews for unvaccinated people.

Merck has requested EMA review of its Emory-developed covid-antiviral tablet, molnupiravir, which seems from trials to halve risks of hospitalisation and death in high-risk patients from delta, gamma and mu variants.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (26 Oct 2021)

Professor Andrew Pollard (man behind the AZ vaccine) reported as saying that most patients in ICU have not been jabbed at all.

Anyone got any stat's on this please?

IMO, unless there is a clear medical/psychological reason the unjabbed (currently about 5 milliuon strong) shouldn't be allowed out of their houses ie locked down until the idiots get their act together.

Talked to three last week, one who won't have it on principle FFS. She couldn't define what this principle was. Two others were tradesmen (electrician and plumber) who were arrogant tits in their 30's who said they both worked out and were fit and healthy so why did they need it.

We should be focussing more on these idiots instead of the flame fueling hysteria from eg the Beeb suggesting that we should all suffer with eg another frigging lockdown.

I'm all for passports - no passport no acces to public transport or any entry to any public space.

Tossers the lot of them.


----------



## PK99 (26 Oct 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Professor Andrew Pollard (man behind the AZ vaccine) reported as saying that most patients in ICU have not been jabbed at all.
> 
> Anyone got any stat's on this please?
> 
> ...



As in Vancouver. 
No photo id and vaccine proof no entry to cafes, bars, restaurants


----------



## classic33 (26 Oct 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Professor Andrew Pollard (man behind the AZ vaccine) reported as saying that most patients in ICU have not been jabbed at all.
> 
> Anyone got any stat's on this please?
> 
> ...


And if you've ended up in hospital due to a reaction to the "safe for you*" vaccine, what then?

*Decision made for me, not by me.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (26 Oct 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Anyone got any stat's on this please?



Published weekly, latest here. 

Page 17 for inpatients, ~2/3 unvaxxed by my reading. 

https://assets.publishing.service.g...27511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf



SpokeyDokey said:


> shouldn't be allowed out of their houses ie locked down until the idiots get their act together.



I think house arrest for idiocy may be seen as a little OTT, counterproductive even...


----------



## BoldonLad (26 Oct 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> *Professor Andrew Pollard (man behind the AZ vaccine) reported as saying that most patients in ICU have not been jabbed at all.*
> 
> Anyone got any stat's on this please?
> 
> ...



Yes, saw that on the national news, sorry no more information.

On our local news, there was Head, or Deputy Head of a local Hospital (Teeside), saying Government should re-introduce "Covid Restrictions", he did not spell out exactly what, but, presumably Lock Down. His reasoning was that he had some young patients (un vaccinated) in the hospital with Covid, and, one or two had died. His view was "supported" by interviewing an elderly unvaccinated Covid Patient who gave a spiel on why people should NOT get vaccinated (she stated that none of her family, all the way down to grandchildren) were un-vaccinated.

Why are we giving these people air time?


----------



## dodgy (26 Oct 2021)

classic33 said:


> And if you've ended up in hospital due to a reaction to the "safe for you*" vaccine, what then?
> 
> *Decision made for me, not by me.


You're like the person who responds to a thread on twitter about getting more people on bikes "but how will I transport my 15 fridges I need every day".

Thankfully your experience is rare.


----------



## classic33 (26 Oct 2021)

dodgy said:


> You're like the person who responds to a thread on twitter about getting more people on bikes "but how will I transport my 15 fridges I need every day".
> 
> Thankfully your experience is rare.


The fridges can go on the back, easy. There'd be nowt new there.

I know I'm in a minority, but does that mean I disregard the advice given.


----------



## Alex321 (26 Oct 2021)

classic33 said:


> The fridges can go on the back, easy. There'd be nowt new there.
> 
> I know I'm in a minority, but does that mean I disregard the advice given.


No, it doesn't.

The post you initially responded to on this did say " unless there is a clear medical/psychological reason".

You appear to be in that unfortunate minority. TBH, it is even more important for people such as you that the rest of us DO get vaccinated.


----------



## classic33 (26 Oct 2021)

Alex321 said:


> No, it doesn't.
> 
> The post you initially responded to on this did say " unless there is a clear medical/psychological reason".
> 
> You appear to be in that unfortunate minority. TBH, it is even more important for people such as you that the rest of us DO get vaccinated.





SpokeyDokey said:


> Professor Andrew Pollard (man behind the AZ vaccine) reported as saying that most patients in ICU have not been jabbed at all.
> 
> Anyone got any stat's on this please?
> 
> ...


I'm no idiot when it comes to this, but medical reasons means that the one jab will be all that will be had. Decision made for me. Means no "passport", relying on tests alone. Does that mean no access to public places?

I went against medical advice, and suffered the consequences.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (26 Oct 2021)

classic33 said:


> I'm no idiot when it comes to this, but medical reasons means that the one jab will be all that will be had. Decision made for me. Means no "passport", relying on tests alone. Does that mean no access to public places?
> 
> I went against medical advice, and suffered the consequences.



Read my post again - carefully.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (26 Oct 2021)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Published weekly, latest here.
> 
> Page 17 for inpatients, ~2/3 unvaxxed by my reading.
> 
> ...



I think we are being too soft with these fools. They are contributing to the daily caseload and deaths through their inaction re vaccination.

Maybe the two tradesmen I mentioned would get their act together if they were required to be vaccinated before they could work in someone's home as they were. Either that or they can stay at home with no State financial support.

What's the solution otherwise? Something needs doing to get these morons vaccinated.


----------



## Mo1959 (26 Oct 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think we are being too soft with these fools. They are contributing to the daily caseload and deaths through their inaction re vaccination.
> 
> Maybe the two tradesmen I mentioned would get their act together if they were required to be vaccinated before they could work in someone's home as they were. Either that or they can stay at home with no State financial support.
> 
> What's the solution otherwise? Something needs doing to get these morons vaccinated.


Most people unvaccinated through choice are probably way more careful around others I think. It’s the vaccinated that think they are invincible and can do what they like now not giving others space, etc.


----------



## dodgy (26 Oct 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> Most people unvaccinated through choice are probably way more careful around others I think. It’s the vaccinated that think they are invincible and can do what they like now not giving others space, etc.


I dispute that. If they were naturally prepositioned to be careful, they would be vaccinated.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (26 Oct 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> Most people unvaccinated through choice are probably way more careful around others I think. It’s the vaccinated that think they are invincible and can do what they like now not giving others space, etc.



So careful that they are responsible for most of the Covid cases clogging ICU?

Sorry Mo but it's the unvaccinated that are the real problem re transmission, caseload and deaths, not the other way around.


----------



## KnittyNorah (26 Oct 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think we are being too soft with these fools. They are contributing to the daily caseload and deaths through their inaction re vaccination.
> 
> Maybe the two tradesmen I mentioned would get their act together if they were required to be vaccinated before they could work in someone's home as they were. Either that or they can stay at home with no State financial support.
> 
> What's the solution otherwise? Something needs doing to get these morons vaccinated.



If someone _can't _be vaccinated through no fault of their own - ie must not or should not be vaccinated on medical grounds of any nature, or is a non-responder to the vaccination - they are at greater danger from an unmasked unvaccinated moron-by-choice than they are from a vaccinated person, even if the vaccinated person is a relative to the moron and thus not masking.


----------



## markemark (26 Oct 2021)

Majority of those under 50 in hospital dying are unvaccinated. Considering they only make up roughly 15% of the population then it’s not going well for them. Given up caring about them. Kick them out to clear the NHS backlog and let Darwin sort them out.


----------



## cougie uk (26 Oct 2021)

classic33 said:


> And if you've ended up in hospital due to a reaction to the "safe for you*" vaccine, what then?
> 
> *Decision made for me, not by me.


My wife had her mum jabbed today. 
Nurse at the centre said they'd jabbed 100k people and nobody needed treatment. 

Getting Covid is far more of a risk.


----------



## cougie uk (26 Oct 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Professor Andrew Pollard (man behind the AZ vaccine) reported as saying that most patients in ICU have not been jabbed at all.
> 
> Anyone got any stat's on this please?
> 
> ...


I'd not want any tradesmen in my house that hadn't been jabbed. Muppets.


----------



## cougie uk (26 Oct 2021)

Milzy said:


> Give over. That graph above is legit & by Christmas we will have just about forgotten all about Covid.


How is this prophesy working out Milzy ? You don't work for the government do you ?


----------



## classic33 (26 Oct 2021)

cougie uk said:


> My wife had her mum jabbed today.
> Nurse at the centre said they'd jabbed 100k people and nobody needed treatment.
> 
> Getting Covid is far more of a risk.


Two Dr's decided on the A&E, one of those called for the ambulance which took me there.


----------



## PK99 (27 Oct 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> Most people unvaccinated through choice are probably way more careful around others I think. It’s the vaccinated that think they are invincible and can do what they like now not giving others space, etc.



Evidence?


----------



## roubaixtuesday (27 Oct 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> Most people unvaccinated through choice are probably way more careful around others I think. It’s the vaccinated that think they are invincible and can do what they like now not giving others space, etc.



Some people perhaps, but if they, on average, were careful to the extent of making a big difference to transmission, we'd see no difference in cases and hospitalizations between vaxxed and unvaxxed. 

We do see an huge difference in reality.


----------



## Johnno260 (27 Oct 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I think we are being too soft with these fools. They are contributing to the daily caseload and deaths through their inaction re vaccination.
> 
> Maybe the two tradesmen I mentioned would get their act together if they were required to be vaccinated before they could work in someone's home as they were. Either that or they can stay at home with no State financial support.
> 
> What's the solution otherwise? Something needs doing to get these morons vaccinated.



There is a knock on effect as well, many of the hospital cases could have been preventable using vaccination, so they’re taking beds and potentially stripping hospital resources, and delaying the return to normal services for other ailments, their choices are having a very real issues for other people.


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## markemark (27 Oct 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> There is a knock on effect as well, many of the hospital cases could have been preventable using vaccination, so they’re taking beds and potentially stripping hospital resources, and delaying the return to normal services for other ailments, their choices are having a very real issues for other people.


Not only that but hospitals are full of very sick people who are more susceptible to severe reactions to covid. Those coming in in larger numbers due to being unvaccinated are bringing in more disease to a hospital and putting other patients at risk.


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## Johnno260 (27 Oct 2021)

markemark said:


> Not only that but hospitals are full of very sick people who are more susceptible to severe reactions to covid. Those coming in in larger numbers due to being unvaccinated are bringing in more disease to a hospital and putting other patients at risk.



Yes this as well, there are so many knock on effects due to peoples poor life choices. 

I don't include people who can't be vaccinated due to medical reasons in this, that's a choice that's been taken from them for reasons.

The data is plain as day on the hospital numbers, I even had a relative who gave me ONS data saying that 70% of all hospital cases are vaccinated people, they were looking at the data set totally wrong, but once someone has picked their side in the vaccination debate then everything gets thrown out the window, maths and common sense it seems.

The hardcore of people not being vaccinated are the kind of people serving the NHS papers, thinking it's real legal documentation.


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## DaveReading (27 Oct 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> I even had a relative who gave me ONS data saying that 70% of all hospital cases are vaccinated people, they were looking at the data set totally wrong



Fortunately that logic fail is easy to refute - ask your relative what would be the situation if (hypothetically) 100% of people had been vaccinated.

Clearly, a small proportion would still go on to become infected, and some of those would end up in hospital.

But of course that would mean that 100% of hospital cases are then vaccinated people - would that prove, according to your relative's logic, that the vaccine is 0% effective ?


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## Rusty Nails (27 Oct 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> Most people unvaccinated through choice are probably way more careful around others I think. It’s the vaccinated that think they are invincible and can do what they like now not giving others space, etc.


That's a broad assumption, unless you are aware of anything to confirm it.

There has not been much social distancing, or mask-wearing, in the anti-vac demonstrations I have seen on TV news or the press. And non-vaccinated form a much higher ratio of cases in hospital.

The jury is still out.


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## MrGrumpy (27 Oct 2021)

Just to throw something else in here regarding vaccines . I posted further back in thread i think but my MIL was part of study group checking for antibodies for covid. Nothing showed up until she received her vaccines earlier this year. Fast forward to Aug and the blood tests started coming back with no antibodies. Same in September, then this month boom, blood tests showed antibodies again. Only had her booster yesterday so nill effect from that ! 

We wondered if she had been exposed to covid and knew nothing of it or something else..............


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## dodgy (27 Oct 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> Just to throw something else in here regarding vaccines . I posted further back in thread i think but my MIL was part of study group checking for antibodies for covid. Nothing showed up until she received her vaccines earlier this year. Fast forward to Aug and the blood tests started coming back with no antibodies. Same in September, then this month boom, blood tests showed antibodies again. Only had her booster yesterday so nill effect from that !
> 
> We wondered if she had been exposed to covid and knew nothing of it or something else..............


One for the doctors to figure out.


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## mjr (27 Oct 2021)

Some restrictions being reintroduced in Belgium including masks mandatory in some settings, but the PM says 85% vaccination has avoided another lockdown. "Vaccibuses" are touring secondary schools, where masks will be compulsory after halfterm in at least two regions. https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/COVID-19-cases-spike-in-Belgium-govt-poised-for-16564126.php

The Netherlands is reportedly considering what to do with cases rising sharply. 60% of residents expect restrictions. https://www.curacaochronicle.com/po...ent-considering-new-coronavirus-restrictions/


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## mjr (27 Oct 2021)

mjr said:


> Merck has requested EMA review of its Emory-developed covid-antiviral tablet, molnupiravir, which seems from trials to halve risks of hospitalisation and death in high-risk patients from delta, gamma and mu variants.



Merck are licensing molnupiravir to other makers. https://apnews.com/article/coronavi...ealth-health-ddde9854faee530d6c4bc435f3e6da74


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## Ajax Bay (28 Oct 2021)

AY.4.2 got its VUI badge
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation 
Information on the new Variant Under Investigation VUI-21OCT-01. 
[ high level of uncertainty ]
Precis: Accounts for a slowly increasing proportion of cases in UK and also present in multiple other countries. Has the mutations of Delta with extras. Appears to have a modestly increased growth rate compared to Delta: for household contacts of cases with VUI-21OCT-01 was 12.4% cf other Delta cases where it was 11.1% whereas in non-household settings the secondary attack rate was higher but not significant.
"As of 21 October 2021, there are 22,017 VOC-21OCT-01 genomes in the UK dataset, linked to 15,120 cases in England. VUI-21OCT-01 accounts for 3.8%, 5.2%, and 5.9% of Delta cases in England in the weeks beginning 19 September, 26 September, and 3 October 2021 respectively."
"Crude analyses do not show strong evidence of a difference in risk of hospitalisation or death between VUI-21OCT-01 and Delta" [but it seems it might be a bit higher].


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## classic33 (29 Oct 2021)

classic33 said:


> For me, there was one person who'd only be seen twice, since their first diagnosis of possible epilepsy, who had been given the worst case possible, on their second visit to the hospital, SUDEP. They'd only just moved, had to surrender their driving licence. Driving being a large part of their job beforehand. How have they been since all this started? I'd love to know, but it'll be a while before I find out.


Found out this week that they never made the end of last year.
Whether it was the epilepsy directly, or an indirect complication* I didn't feel I had the right to ask.

*Routine treatments/visits were stopped for them.


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## mjr (5 Nov 2021)

Government campaign to urge people to open windows for 10 minutes every hour while you have guests at home. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/05/ventilate-home-stop-covid-spread-government-uk

Do you think that's likely?


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## KnittyNorah (5 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> Government campaign to urge people to open windows for 10 minutes every hour while you have guests at home. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/05/ventilate-home-stop-covid-spread-government-uk
> 
> Do you think that's likely?


It's about as likely as people still wearing masks in enclosed crowded spaces .... GRRRRRRR! 
I'm a bit of a fresh-air fiend anyway.


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## PK99 (5 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> Government campaign to urge people to open windows for 10 minutes every hour while you have guests at home. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/05/ventilate-home-stop-covid-spread-government-uk
> 
> Do you think that's likely?



We already do that - or rather when people are round we leave the windows open a crack and leave curtains over draughty french doors open and almost froze to death in a pub in Cornwall last week that had its widows partly open.


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## vickster (5 Nov 2021)

PK99 said:


> We already do that - or rather when people are round we leave the windows open a crack and leave curtains over draughty french doors open and almost froze to death in a pub in Cornwall last week that had its widows partly open.


and the widowers?


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## SpokeyDokey (9 Nov 2021)

Vienna: brothel giving 30 minutes with one of the incumbents in exchange for having the Covid jab (Sky News). 

Liberated incentive!


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## ColinJ (9 Nov 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Vienna: brothel giving 30 minutes with one of the incumbents in exchange for having the Covid jab (Sky News).
> 
> Liberated incentive!


Apparently, if you agree to have 2 jabs plus the booster, they let you off without having to go through that!


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## DRM (9 Nov 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Vienna: brothel giving 30 minutes with one of the incumbents in exchange for having the Covid jab (Sky News).
> 
> Liberated incentive!


I wonder if the staff have been double pricked?


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## mjr (10 Nov 2021)

TV news graphic of how vaccine effectiveness reduces for Pfizer, Moderna and Janssen if vaccinated in mid-March (but some labels would have been nice, as would writing down the source which I believe is the Public Health Service of Belgium). I understand Oxford's curve would be between them:


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## PK99 (10 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> TV news graphic of how vaccine effectiveness reduces for Pfizer, Moderna and Janssen if vaccinated in mid-March (but some labels would have been nice, as would writing down the source which I believe is the Public Health Service of Belgium). I understand Oxford's curve would be between them:
> 
> View attachment 617263



What measure of effectiveness is that?

Cases among vaccinated population?

Or measured antibodies?

Or some other measure?


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## mjr (10 Nov 2021)

PK99 said:


> What measure of effectiveness is that?
> 
> Cases among vaccinated population?
> 
> ...


"Vaccine effectiveness" is an established term. It reflects real-world cases. See https://www.who.int/influenza_vaccines_plan/resources/Session4_VEfficacy_VEffectiveness.PDF


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## SpokeyDokey (12 Nov 2021)

Austria pushing ahead with plans to lock down the unvaccinated. (Guardian) 

Apart from certain exceptions a good move imo and one we should consider here.


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## vickster (12 Nov 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Austria pushing ahead with plans to lock down the unvaccinated. (Guardian)
> 
> Apart from certain exceptions a good move imo and one we should consider here.


There was a visit / go live and work in Austria ad at the cinema last night which seemed a bit hopeful given Covid and Brexit


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## KnittyNorah (12 Nov 2021)

vickster said:


> There was a visit / go live and work in Austria ad at the cinema last night which seemed a bit hopeful given Covid and Brexit



Covid didn't apply then, of course, but I worked in Austria long before Austria joined the EU (which wasn't until 1995). The paperwork wasn't too onerous and I'm sure they'd be happy to do it 'in reverse' as it were, if it were to their advantage.


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## mjr (12 Nov 2021)

Netherlands PM Rutte to address the nation at 7pm local time (6pm UK) this evening. He is expected to announce lockdown from 7pm Saturday for 3 weeks, closing hospitality, non-essential shops and sporting events and setting a "rule of four" for visiting each other's homes. https://inews.co.uk/news/world/netherlands-lockdown-winter-covid-cases-record-high-europe-1297272


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## matticus (12 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> Netherlands PM Rutte to address the nation at 7pm local time (6pm UK) this evening. He is expected to announce lockdown from 7pm Saturday for 3 weeks, closing hospitality, non-essential shops and sporting events and setting a "rule of four" for visiting each other's homes. https://inews.co.uk/news/world/netherlands-lockdown-winter-covid-cases-record-high-europe-1297272


Yoiks!


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## mjr (18 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> Netherlands PM Rutte to address the nation at 7pm local time (6pm UK) this evening. He is expected to announce lockdown from 7pm Saturday for 3 weeks, closing hospitality, non-essential shops and sporting events and setting a "rule of four" for visiting each other's homes. https://inews.co.uk/news/world/netherlands-lockdown-winter-covid-cases-record-high-europe-1297272


It wasn't quite that strict, I think, with a curfew rather than total closure of hospitality.

Belgium has reintroduced mask rules and home working orders.

Ireland has also ordered home working, making the health minister who said it wasn't being considered look silly.

And a first systematic review suggests masks are the top non-drug way to cut covid cases that it could identify, maybe halving them. More data is needed before they can say much about some other measures. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ost-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds


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## SpokeyDokey (18 Nov 2021)

A once busy thread (albeit previously a political 'football' one) seems to have gone quiet of late. 

Anyone else bothered by people diving in and out of the country? Especially in Europe where even the much lauded Germans very sadly appear to be under the cosh and various restrictions are being applied in other Euro states. 

We know 3 couples who are just off to various parts of Europe on their jollies, two couples still abroad and 1 couple off to Mexico early December. 

Can't say I'm supportive of all this basically unnecessary travel.


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## mjr (18 Nov 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Anyone else bothered by people diving in and out of the country? Especially in Europe where even the much lauded Germans very sadly appear to be under the cosh and various restrictions are being applied in other Euro states.


Not particularly bothered by travellers who abide by the restrictions here, there, during travel and on return. Most of western europe is doing better than the UK and I don't think a new variant has taken hold anywhere yet, has it? So travellers aren't making things worse just now, there are economic and mental health benefits to allowing them but maybe compliance checking on return should be stricter.

And I'm very relaxed about cycle tourists. Any new variant will probably get established the UK by air travel and airport holding pens long before someone rode home with it.


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## alicat (18 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> Netherlands PM Rutte to address the nation at 7pm local time (6pm UK) this evening. He is expected to announce lockdown from 7pm Saturday for 3 weeks, closing hospitality, non-essential shops and sporting events and setting a "rule of four" for visiting each other's homes. https://inews.co.uk/news/world/netherlands-lockdown-winter-covid-cases-record-high-europe-1297272



I'm not surprised. I went house sitting in Europe mid-Oct to mid-Nov and almost nobody was wearing masks in the Netherlands.



SpokeyDokey said:


> Anyone else bothered by people diving in and out of the country? Especially in Europe where even the much lauded Germans very sadly appear to be under the cosh and various restrictions are being applied in other Euro states.



I've just come back from Europe. Rates in Germany were lower than in the UK and I felt safer there than here. I had to take a lateral flow test on my return.


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## classic33 (18 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> It wasn't quite that strict, I think, with a curfew rather than total closure of hospitality.
> 
> Belgium has reintroduced mask rules and home working orders.
> 
> ...


Totally different approach taken in Ireland in some sectors.
Many want restrictions to stay in place within the hospitality business, rather than removed to the extent they have been here. With business owners more supportive of the restrictions.

New variant more likely to enter/exit via surface travel than air as air travel is heavily behind the testing before being allowed to board.


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## mjr (18 Nov 2021)

classic33 said:


> New variant more likely to enter/exit via surface travel than air as air travel is heavily behind the testing before being allowed to board.


That's testing up to 3 days before being allowed to board in many cases, isn't it? I can understand why that window was necessary when travel test centres were still in short supply, but it feels like the window for infection between test and travel really ought to have been narrowed a bit by now in places with fast and plentiful travel test appointments like Germany.


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## rockyroller (18 Nov 2021)

heard a recent poll in our state MA 1/3 to 1/4 of parents DO NOT PLAN to vaccinate their children


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## BoldonLad (18 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> That's testing up to 3 days before being allowed to board in many cases, isn't it? I can understand why that window was necessary when travel test centres were still in short supply, but it feels like the window for infection between test and travel really ought to have been narrowed a bit by now in places with fast and plentiful travel test appointments like Germany.



I don't know what the tests are called, but, my son, who has been travelling more or less throughout Covid, on business (Oil Industry), has recently had a change of routine, no more testing, and overnight stays waiting for results, results available with a short time scale, so, almost "test and go", at airport.


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## KnittyNorah (18 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> Not particularly bothered by travellers who abide by the restrictions here, there, during travel and on return. Most of western europe is doing better than the UK and I don't think a new variant has taken hold anywhere yet, has it? So travellers aren't making things worse just now, there are economic and mental health benefits to allowing them but maybe compliance checking on return should be stricter.
> 
> And I'm very relaxed about cycle tourists. Any new variant will probably get established the UK by air travel and airport holding pens long before someone rode home with it.



The only reason I am unhappy about lack/loosening of travel restrictions is because of total lack of compliance checking and the inevitable irresponsible behaviour of many which is the inevitable result. 

I think we c_ould be_ in a fairly reasonable place _if _a significant minority of people didn't clearly think/imagine/whatever-it-is that the risk of C-19 is all but over. And that is ignoring those eejits who never thought it existed to begin with ...


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## Ajax Bay (18 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> Not particularly bothered by travellers who abide by the restrictions here, there, during travel and on return. Most of western europe is doing better than the UK and I don't think a new variant has taken hold anywhere yet, has it? So travellers aren't making things worse just now, there are economic and mental health benefits to allowing them but maybe compliance checking on return should be stricter







Bear in mind that testing regimes/rates have been far weaker than UK's over the last few months so the figures from Be Ne Deu Ost Hun are probably worse than shown above.
I was amazed to hear that good friends (couple) had visited Vienna for a long weekend. But it was his 'big 50', and you only get one of those.


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## mjr (18 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> View attachment 618278
> 
> Bear in mind that testing regimes/rates have been far weaker than UK's over the last few months [...]


What's the basis for that claim, please? So few are following the testing regime around here that they have to ask a supervisor how to issue a test pack, six weeks after the current procedure came in, while even walk-in test centres basically only get contact referrals AFAICT. But maybe it's different elsewhere.

While according to friends in Germany and Benelux at least, people actually seem to be checking covid certificates, with the knock on effect of more testing.


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## Ajax Bay (19 Nov 2021)

I asserted: "Bear in mind that testing regimes/rates have been far weaker than UK's over the last few months . . ."


mjr said:


> What's the basis for that claim, please?


Think you could have managed to fact check this yoursel' with minimal effort.
High vaccination rates and steady take up of third doses by the more vulnerable (70+ and CEV, but needs to be better) coupled with our high population immunity from 'natural infection' that we got the very hard way at great cost, reinforces the point that the UK might not be in the shittest of shitty places, relatively, as we come into winter.
WE need to devote extra resources in to fixing NHS overload, particularly into the care sector where it takes less time to train than most higher shortage category NHS roles. Money spent on create a bed in a care home buys a space in an NHS hospital. This would reduce the load on the NHS in the most appropriate way. further NPIs will not do it, nor be politically achievable.
I believe a lot of the testing in Germany goes unrecorded (we have discussed this before a few pages upthread or on one of the other threads, where @Andy in Germany offered the background).




Austria's testing has been 'off the chart' higher: I have excluded its line to allow visibility of all the other traces.


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## mjr (19 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Think you could have managed to fact check this yoursel' with minimal effort.
> [...]
> Austria's testing has been 'off the chart' higher: I have excluded its line to allow visibility of all the other traces.


I did check it myself and found no evidence that their testing regimes are weaker. To be fair, nor have you. You have only shown lower reported test rates, except for Ostria, and even if they were following the exact same test regime as the UK in theory, wouldn't the higher case numbers in the UK until last week result in many times more contact tests? The UK now only advises testing by vaccinated contacts of cases and does not require it.

Uk test regime: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-1...ot-do#get-tested-and-self-isolate-if-required
Belgium test regime: https://www.info-coronavirus.be/en/testing/#who
Netherland test regime: https://www.government.nl/topics/co...llowing-contact-with-someone-with-coronavirus
Exact German rules vary by state, as covered many times on here.

I also note the UK average appears to stay below 15 per thousand, even during the period when we were told to test twice a week. I wonder what the story behind that is but do not have time to check immediately.


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## Ajax Bay (19 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> I did check it myself and found no evidence that their testing regimes are weaker. To be fair, nor have you. You have only shown lower reported test rates


OK, so might I get you to "bear in mind that" "the daily per million rates of reported testing (acting as a lead indicator) have been far lower than UK's over the last few months . . "?
The factor I sought to highlight was that UK reports more tests per case and has done for months, with the implication that actual case rates on the continent are even higher than reported - in the same way as the ONS sero survey suggests in UK that infectious infections on any one day are about twice the reported case rate (7 day average).


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## SpokeyDokey (19 Nov 2021)

Austria making vaccinations compulsory from 1st Feb next year.


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## MrGrumpy (19 Nov 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Austria making vaccinations compulsory from 1st Feb next year.


Just having that discussion, maybe that will come here but doubt Bojo has the balls ( oops off to NACA I should go )


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## mjr (19 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> OK, so might I get you to "bear in mind that" "the daily per million rates of reported testing (acting as a lead indicator) have been far lower than UK's over the last few months . . "?


Yes, but that's quite different from claiming the testing regimes are weaker than the poor UK one, I don't think it's interesting and I'm unsure whether the (...) bit is true internationally.



> The factor I sought to highlight was that UK reports more tests per case and has done for months, with the implication that actual case rates on the continent are even higher than reported - in the same way as the ONS sero survey suggests in UK that infectious infections on any one day are about twice the reported case rate (7 day average).


Without similar estimates from Destatis, Statistics Netherlands, Statistics Belgium and so on, I'm not sure even that implication has much of a basis other than nationalism (in the literal sense).


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## Ajax Bay (19 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> Most of western europe is doing better than the UK


I sought to offer an insight to your assessment above: that's all. It didn't seem 'fact-based'.
You can now nit-pick over what 'doing better' looks like: pick your own irrelevant timeframe if this month doesn't suit.


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## Ajax Bay (19 Nov 2021)

Hospital bed occupancy by patients with a positive COVID-19 test in the last 28 days has dropped from about 9.4k on 1 Nov to maybe 8.2k yesterday. Let's hope the renewed effectiveness the third dose offers the older and CEV section of our community means fewer will end up in hospital or worse, and even if cases go on yo-yoing, the admissions and occupancy will continue to trend down (and fewer deaths) and less demand on the health service.


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## mjr (20 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I sought to offer an insight to your assessment above: that's all. It didn't seem 'fact-based'.
> You can now nit-pick over what 'doing better' looks like: pick your own irrelevant timeframe if this month doesn't suit.


It was fact-based and the rebuttal ignored "most of" and "western" (Hungary, really?) as well as making unsupported claims about testing regimes, then cherry-picking countries.

Also, it was based on numbers now half a week old and exponential growth is a pain sometimes.


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## Ajax Bay (20 Nov 2021)

Study: COVID-19 mortality risk correlates inversely with Vitamin D3 status
[People are less likely to die if their Vit D3 levels are higher.]
Conclusions (precised) - and recent review (10 minute video by John Campbell)
"Meta-analysis of two independent sets of data (March 2021 - pre-vaccination). Both datasets show a strong correlation between the death rate caused by SARS-CoV-2 and 'vitamin D' (it's a hormone) [in the] blood level. At a threshold level of 30 ng/ml, mortality decreases considerably."
Comment: This is above average for UK and people (in particular) living in densely populated parts of UK cities have below average 'vitamin D' in the blood levels. " The PHE National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008 to 2012) showed [about 22% of the UK population] have low levels (below 25 ng/ml) of vitamin D in their blood." Vast majority of the frailer over 70s don't get out in the sunshine enough (wild assertion based on an N=1 study of my mother).

"In addition, [the study's] analysis shows that the correlation for the combined datasets intersects the axis at approximately 50 ng/ml, which suggests that this vitamin D3 blood level may prevent any excess mortality. These findings are supported not only by a large infection study, showing the same optimum but also by the natural levels observed in traditional people living in the region where humanity originated from that were able to fight down most (not all) infections in most (not all) individuals."

"Vaccination is and will be an important keystone in our fight against SARS-CoV-2. However, current data clearly show that vaccination alone cannot prevent all SARS-CoV-2 infections and dissemination of the virus. Based on our data, the [study's] authors strongly recommend combining vaccination with routine strengthening of the immune system of the whole population by vitamin D3 supplementation to consistently guarantee blood levels above 50 ng/ml."

A good way to achieve this is either plenty of sun exposure (half the time it takes to burn) or take 4000IU daily (and a tad of K2 to reduce to negligible the unproven risk of blood vessel calcification).
Disclosure: I decided this proposition had wings (and zero downside) this time last year and have been taking 4000IU plus K2 daily since then.
Was £10 for 180; now £12 for 400.


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## vickster (20 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Study: COVID-19 mortality risk correlates inversely with Vitamin D3 status
> [People are less likely to die if their Vit D3 levels are higher.]
> Conclusions (precised) - and recent review (10 minute video by John Campbell)
> "Meta-analysis of two independent sets of data (March 2021 - pre-vaccination). Both datasets show a strong correlation between the death rate caused by SARS-CoV-2 and 'vitamin D' (it's a hormone) [in the] blood level. At a threshold level of 30 ng/ml, mortality decreases considerably."
> ...


What’s your level on that dosage? My rheumatologist has just increased mine to 3000 based on my recent test results


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## deptfordmarmoset (20 Nov 2021)

vickster said:


> What’s your level on that dosage? My rheumatologist has just increased mine to 3000 based on my recent test results


If you're using IU measurements, AB states 4000iu in his second from last sentence. 

I've been taking the same dosage for at least a year - ever since Zoe flagged it up - and getting an elderly and frail relative to do likewise. However, I gather there is some information somewhere about taking it on an empty stomach weakening its efficacy. @Ajax Bay may know more.


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## vickster (20 Nov 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> If you're using IU measurements, AB states 4000ui in his second from last sentence.
> 
> I've been taking the same dosage for at least a year - ever since Zoe flagged it up - and getting an elderly and frail relative to do likewise. However, I gather there is some information somewhere about taking it on an empty stomach weakening its efficacy. @Ajax Bay may know more.


His Vit D level. 4000IU is the dosage. Post revised for clarity 

I take mine after breakfast with other pills/vits


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## mjr (20 Nov 2021)

All together now: correlation is not causation.

Still, there's probably at worst no harm keeping your vitamin levels up, as long as you don't expect invincibility and the cost doesn't hurt you


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## Ajax Bay (20 Nov 2021)

Testing for 1,25(OH)2D3 (what is measured to determine one's 'vitamin D level') is not expensive but not cheap either.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/
I just take the 4000IU D3 plus 0.1mg K2 daily and expect my blood levels will be 'up there'.
The tiny tabs I take with my OJ at breakfast cost about 6p each. The D3/K2 gets absorbed better with a bit of fat around (auiu): my breakfast contains some fat.
Of course decent levels of D3 are beneficial for all sorts of reasons, not just immunological.
I have no specialist knowledge in this area.
Edit to add: I take no other supplementation. The study I shared persuasively shows a clear inverse correlation and one can note the sections of population which have low average Vitamin D levels, and the correlation between those sections and higher than average levels of SARS-COV-2 morbidity.


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## Julia9054 (20 Nov 2021)

Vit D supplements are as cheap as chips. Most of us Northern hemisphere indoor worker drones are somewhat deficient in winter. Due to having skin cancer last year I live in a bucket of factor 50 all year round and therefore take a maximum dosage supplement.
I have the immune system of an ox despite working in a plague pit (aka secondary school)


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## slowmotion (20 Nov 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> Vit D supplements are as cheap as chips. Most of us Northern hemisphere indoor worker drones are somewhat deficient in winter. Due to having skin cancer last year I live in a bucket of factor 50 all year round and therefore take a maximum dosage supplement.
> I have the immune system of an ox despite working in a plague pit (aka secondary school)


They certainly are. I was put on D3 nine years ago, 1000IU every other day. To save time getting a prescription, I bought a four year supply on eBay for £6.50. Of course, they may well be fakes, but the placebo effect seems to be holding up even if they are not.


----------



## rockyroller (21 Nov 2021)

the outdoor dining options are drying up around here. lots of ppl crowding into indoor restaurants w/o any mask or vaccination requirements. went out for Mexican food last night w/ Wifey. we were only 1 party of 3 on the patio. they had heaters but it was cold. I felt like I got dirty looks when I masked up to go inside to the mens' room. 3 times vaxxed but I still like eating out, OUTSIDE. especially the week before seeing elderly relatives


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## Ajax Bay (21 Nov 2021)

It’s bitterly disappointing to see these likely outcomes across Europe, which have been predicted, but nations were just (politically) unwilling or unable to take prompt NPI measures. Case fatality rate estimates (ie estimate of percentage of the number of deaths reported of the number of cases reported)




So UK is at ~0.4%. Daily average cases about 40,000, daily average deaths (within 28 days of positive COVID-19 test) about 150. This plot is based on OWID data.
Edit: For those for whom it might not be clear, a high CFR may be a result of high(er) deaths or a lower reported case rate than actual infections. In UK the latter is deduced (from reported case rate and ONS data) to be about half. In other (all) countries the testing and reporting stringency 'varies'.
Second addition: CFR above is the _detected-and-reported case _fatality rate (and assumes internationally consistent 'death by or with COVID-19' reporting). If they're detecting a lower fraction of infections, this CFR will be higher. Please don't infer actual fatality of the virus - it's not suitable for that. One might assume for the same levels of health care, Delta will have specific IFR (medium confidence) in every nation.


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## Ajax Bay (21 Nov 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> I have the immune system of an ox despite working in a plague pit (aka secondary school)


Currently, in your game of 'plague pit top trumps', your primary school colleagues are running you close. Note below that they are keeping the vaccinated immunity levels of their parents (assumed) topped up (a bit).


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## MrGrumpy (21 Nov 2021)

Booster booked for Week before Christmas , a week earlier than the 6 months but no appt available after that and into January. One Week I don’t think is going to make much odds


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## Alex321 (21 Nov 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> Booster booked for Week before Christmas , a week earlier than the 6 months but no appt available after that and into January. One Week I don’t think is going to make much odds


My booster is on Wednesday. Two days short of 6 calendar months, but over the 182 days for half a year.


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## mjr (21 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> It’s bitterly disappointing to see these likely outcomes across Europe, which have been predicted, but nations were just (politically) unwilling or unable to take prompt NPI measures.


Are you sure? At first glance, it looks to me like some low vaccination rate countries are near the highest CFRs, whereas the so-NPI-unwilling-they-are-rioting Netherlands is near the lowest.


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## SpokeyDokey (22 Nov 2021)

New Zealand tightening the screws on the unvaccinated with new traffic light system.


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## fossyant (22 Nov 2021)

Europe is looking concerning. Won't be holidaying overseas. Can't understand staff wanting to travel for business (not that essential) as our insurance won't cover covid delays, so staff having to take out extra insurance and claim back. Silly.


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## mjr (22 Nov 2021)

fossyant said:


> Europe is looking concerning. Won't be holidaying overseas. Can't understand staff wanting to travel for business (not that essential) as our insurance won't cover covid delays, so staff having to take out extra insurance and claim back. Silly.


Maybe they're worrying for future work? Between the B-word and Coronavirus and just scheduling before that, it can easily have been more than two years since they've been face to face with decision-makers or collaborators, whereas some competitors have been able to travel more recently. Much as I love video calls and online conferences, nothing replaces being in the room occasionally for some fields of work. (edited to rephrase the ending)

Europe is now looking mixed. AT/CZ/SK/HU/SI/HR now have more cases than us but HR may have peaked, whereas NL/FR/ES still have fewer cases but are deteriorating fast. A summary in four pictures:


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## rockyroller (22 Nov 2021)

heard something good on NPR this morning. 74% of Americans aged 5 & up have been vaccinated w/ at least 1 jab. really surprised me


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## Ajax Bay (22 Nov 2021)

@rockyroller To save lives, the important metric is the percentage of over 60s that have been fully vaccinated (but the US measure is, I guess, easier to collect/report). The IFR starts ramping up from then. Increasingly this measure may need to be amended to: 'a dose within the last 7 months' given the expectation of waning protection seems to have been realised.
For the under 40 age goups the IFR rate is so low that however that half of the population get antibodies, mercifully very few will succumb - still better to achieve that by vaccination though.
Must confess some forriner suspicion (that's me that's the forriner) that the Iberian Peninsula has achieved such a high %, and wonder whether there are denominator issues in play (ie they don't actually know an accurate number in each age cohort).


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## rockyroller (22 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> @rockyroller To save lives, the important metric is the percentage of over 60s that have been fully vaccinated (but the US measure is, I guess, easier to collect/report). The IFR starts ramping up from then. Increasingly this measure may need to be amended to: 'a dose within the last 7 months' given the expectation of waning protection seems to have been realised.
> For the under 40 age goups the IFR rate is so low that however that half of the population get antibodies, mercifully very few will succumb - still better to achieve that by vaccination though.
> Must confess some forriner suspicion (that's me that's the forriner) that the Iberian Peninsula has achieved such a high %, and wonder whether there are denominator issues in play (ie they don't actually know an accurate number in each age cohort).


ok that's over my head, but thank you. we have another troubling thing I heard. 1/4 to 1/3 of parents in my state (Massachusetts) say they won't vaccinate their kids


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## mjr (22 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Must confess some forriner suspicion (that's me that's the forriner) that the Iberian Peninsula has achieved such a high %, and wonder whether there are denominator issues in play (ie they don't actually know an accurate number in each age cohort).


We are definitely the forriners, because the first doses in the UK saw over 100% age cohort take-up in several areas! However, most cohort size estimation errors got resolved during the first dose and the UK and Portugal both took a census in 2021.

Most of the time, Spain has much better population data than the UK or Portugal because rather than one census a decade, they have up-to-date municipal population registers, the Padrón (empadronamiento), which is now held in a single national database.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Nov 2021)

rockyroller said:


> we have another troubling thing I heard. 1/4 to 1/3 of parents in my state (Massachusetts) say they won't vaccinate their kids


I am pleased that people feel they have the parental freedom to make a perfectly reasonable choice (see commentary on reasonableness below). Why are you troubled by this, in the Land of the Free?
I exclude from this children with underlying health conditions who need to get vaccinated. And if a child is living in the same house as a elderly or CEV adult it surely makes sense for them to be jabbed too.
The balance of benefits/risks to the individual child's health is marginal to be generous, which is well argued in the UK's JCVI statement. The impact on their education of disruption from their and other's infections was used in the UK (by the 4 home nations' CMOs) to justify extending the jab down to the 12 and overs (and imo a reasonable rationale).
The entire population will need to gain a level of protection either by vaccination or naturally before this pandemic transitions to endemic. Most of UK's under 15s have now gained antibodies nasally rather than intramuscularly during the summer and before half term. This should stand the UK population in better stead this winter when combined with progressive third doses rolling down through the age groups to the 40s, to counter any protection waning. Aiui there is emerging evidence that the protection afforded by the third jab is even better than after 2 and it's been suggested that it also reduces the transmission rate.
Every little helps (need to get the third dose take up as high as possible, for each individual's benefit and for society).


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## DaveReading (22 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Most of UK's under 15s have now gained antibodies nasally rather than intramuscularly during the summer and before half term.



Your source for that assertion is ... ?


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## midlife (22 Nov 2021)

"By the end of this winter everyone in Germany will either be vaccinated, recovered or dead,"

Says Germany's health minister. Wonder if our government will say anything similar....


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## Ajax Bay (22 Nov 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Your source for that assertion [most of UK's under 15s have been infected during the summer and before half term] is ... ?


You're right to ask - a wild assertion. There are about 8M 4-15s in UK. Drawing on the colourful age cohort chart I posted (previous page, based on gov.uk data) about 1M 5-15s have reported positives and one can at least double that (based on the historic relationship between cases reported and the ONS serology infection estimates). So well below 'most' unless the multiplier is higher.

(@midlife beat me to it, but with the 'source') in Germany their Health Minister's estimate (not mincing his words but sort of attributing them to someone else):
_"Probably by the end of this winter, as is sometimes cynically said, pretty much everyone in Germany will be vaccinated, cured _[ie infected and recovered]_ or dead," Spahn says. _https://www.bbc.co.uk/ and also: publicly blamed those people for the soaring cases, describing the current situation as a "_pandemic of the unvaccinated_" - referring to the preponderance of the COVID-19 cases in German hospitals.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Nov 2021)

midlife said:


> Wonder if our government will say anything similar....


How about this (told to LBC):
Zahawi (who of course has 'previous' on vaccines) said that a combination of natural immunity and the UK's high vaccination rate could allow the country to transition into a post coronavirus world before other countries. "Our four-step plan [refers to the Government's staged timetable for the release of control measures in England (Mar-Jul)] meant that we were able to open up the economy in the summer. We will probably, I hope, without being complacent, be the first major economy in the world to demonstrate how you transition [from] pandemic to endemic using vaccines."


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## SpokeyDokey (23 Nov 2021)

No extension to Covid Passport Scheme in Scotland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-59389834


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## Milzy (23 Nov 2021)

Why are we so relaxed on rules? The unvaxed are everywhere. I’d love it if they couldn’t go into work unless they had their jibby jabs.


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## Mo1959 (23 Nov 2021)

Milzy said:


> Why are we so relaxed on rules? The unvaxed are everywhere. I’d love it if they couldn’t go into work unless they had their jibby jabs.


How can they be everywhere when the government tell us over 80% of eligible are vaccinated.


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## midlife (23 Nov 2021)

if 80% are fully vaccinated then that leaves 1 in 5 who are not fully vaccinated if my maths are right? that's still quite a lot of people.....


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## Milzy (23 Nov 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> How can they be everywhere when the government tell us over 80% of eligible are vaccinated.


Do the maths, it’s a fair few million & there’s about 12 of them in my work place alone.


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## Ajax Bay (24 Nov 2021)

ONS tweet: 1 in 4 don't fully follow self isolation advice after testing positive. One of the early responses is from someone who says they couldn't afford to if they tested positive.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ons/status/1463448808403226628/photo/1 7
Glass half full PoV: the proportion of people not isolating after a positive test is getting on to double cf previous waves and yet the case rate has stayed flat.
One could infer that in UK immunity is shouldering most of the burden and control measures less - meaning the immunological situation is better than we thought before this ONS report. Also bear in mind that the ONS study deals with antibody levels and the recent chat wrt AZ vaccine (over half UK doses have been AZ) is that it offers types of immunological effect which the serology doesn't measure.
In addition one could infer that if things deteriorate in UK as we move into winter there are more control measures available eg the effectiveness of isolation orders should increase if the situation becomes much more serious and people change their priorities / obey an imposed regime. 
People will take into account whether they can afford to isolate when deciding to or not - a wider topic.


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## markemark (24 Nov 2021)

Milzy said:


> Do the maths, it’s a fair few million & there’s about 12 of them in my work place alone.


My guess is at some point the government will make it harder for the unvaxxed to do stuff.


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## Ajax Bay (24 Nov 2021)

19% (100-81) of about 57M (over 12s in UK) = 11M. I'll guess at least 2M are youth with one or no jabs (yet). So maybe 9M = @midlife's "quite a lot of people". I wonder why there was not even a whisper of an impact on case rates when the student population started their term? A proportion will have been doubly vaccinated but a good percentage won't have been. But maybe a large proportion of those had 'had it' already (pre-September 2021) and therefore the susceptible student population was so small that R < 1 in those semi-closed communities.


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## Ajax Bay (25 Nov 2021)

For an overview of the pandemic circumstances around the world, country by country, this Medscape article is an easy though troubling read: https://www.medscape.co.uk/viewarti...ing-europe-and-america-and-covid-2021a1002fin
Note that case rates seem to be (consistently) described as number per 100k per week (as opposed to cases per million per day).


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## kingrollo (25 Nov 2021)

South Africa - heavily mutated variant detected.


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## midlife (25 Nov 2021)

And straight onto red list with quarantine I think...


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## deptfordmarmoset (25 Nov 2021)

And there's the penalty for doing genome testing. So, yes, B.1.1.529 in S Africa. What about the countries that have less (or no) testing capability? There's no red list for ignorance.


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## cougie uk (25 Nov 2021)

I guess we will keep getting these new variants now. Too many people left unvaccinated ?


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## deptfordmarmoset (25 Nov 2021)

cougie uk said:


> ....Too many people left unvaccinated ?


My knowledge of virology is in the nothing to next to nothing range but I doubt whether it's that simple. I'd guess that bacterial resistance to antibiotics wasn't developed by *non-exposure *to antibiotics, likewise perhaps for covid. On the other hand, a waning immunity from vaccinations or infections might well be the testing ground for versions of covid that are developing resistance to the vaccine. 

I'd put the undiscovered mutations, successful or otherwise, into another category named ''Happening out of sight.''

This may be completely wrong, of course, but I'd love a comprehensible rubbishing of my thinking.


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## ColinJ (25 Nov 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> My knowledge of virology is in the nothing to next to nothing range but I doubt whether it's that simple. I'd guess that bacterial resistance to antibiotics wasn't developed by *non-exposure *to antibiotics, likewise perhaps for covid. On the other hand, a waning immunity from vaccinations or infections might well be the testing ground for versions of covid that are developing resistance to the vaccine.


The virus mutates once in (say) every 1 million infections. If most people were vaccinated, there wouldn't be millions of infections (or at least, infections that didn't get wiped out quickly by the immune systems of the vaccinated) so there wouldn't be lots of mutations. Having a huge pool of people with no immunity means that the virus can keep on circulating and mutating.


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## cougie uk (26 Nov 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> My knowledge of virology is in the nothing to next to nothing range but I doubt whether it's that simple. I'd guess that bacterial resistance to antibiotics wasn't developed by *non-exposure *to antibiotics, likewise perhaps for covid. On the other hand, a waning immunity from vaccinations or infections might well be the testing ground for versions of covid that are developing resistance to the vaccine.
> 
> I'd put the undiscovered mutations, successful or otherwise, into another category named ''Happening out of sight.''
> 
> This may be completely wrong, of course, but I'd love a comprehensible rubbishing of my thinking.


Yes I think you're wrong. Antibiotics is a different conversation but the more people catching Covid gives it far more chances to mutate.


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## mjr (26 Nov 2021)

ColinJ said:


> The virus mutates once in (say) every 1 million infections. If most people were vaccinated, there wouldn't be millions of infections (or at least, infections that didn't get wiped out quickly by the immune systems of the vaccinated) so there wouldn't be lots of mutations. Having a huge pool of people with no immunity means that the virus can keep on circulating and mutating.


You can say that more vaccination would have helped, but we could also say that if most people were masking, keeping distance and isolating when positive, then there would be fewer infections too. It would all help reduce the circulation and so reduce the probability of successful mutations arising.

I also seem to recall reading that South Africa was paying more per shot than the UK, EU or USA for some vaccines. They have fully vaccinated just 23.5% of their population, although that appears to be the third-highest number in Africa, so how do you rate that? I don't know.


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## fossyant (26 Nov 2021)

kingrollo said:


> South Africa - heavily mutated variant detected.



I think that's my colleagues plans scuppered for Christmas - she's from SA and 'was' going back to see family. I hope she's got good insurance.


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## ColinJ (26 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> You can say that more vaccination would have helped, but we could also say that if most people were masking, keeping distance and isolating when positive, then there would be fewer infections too. It would all help reduce the circulation and so reduce the probability of successful mutations arising.


Definitely. The way things are now, the world is like a giant automated biological weapons laboratory churning out horrid variants every few months.

It would only take one of these variants to be very infectious, very lethal, and not affected by the current vaccines, for us to be in _BIG _trouble.


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## Milzy (26 Nov 2021)

ColinJ said:


> Definitely. The way things are now, the world is like a giant automated biological weapons laboratory churning out horrid variants every few months.
> 
> It would only take one of these variants to be very infectious, very lethal, and not affected by the current vaccines, for us to be in _BIG _trouble.


Maybe you could write a science fiction book about that happening. In 10 years time 25% of the planet will still be unvaxed so we’ll know more about this living experiment by then.


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## ColinJ (26 Nov 2021)

Milzy said:


> Maybe you could write a science fiction book about that happening. In 10 years time 25% of the planet will still be unvaxed so we’ll know more about this living experiment by then.


There are plenty of books like that already! 

This was always going to happen one day with global air travel able to spread new bugs around the world almost before we knew what was happening. I watched "_*Contagion*_" 9 or 10 year ago and that was the movie's plot.


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## Julia9054 (26 Nov 2021)

ColinJ said:


> There are plenty of books like that already!
> 
> This was always going to happen one day with global air travel able to spread new bugs around the world almost before we knew what was happening. I watched "_*Contagion*_" 9 or 10 year ago and that was the movie's plot.


I used to show parts of that film to year 10 as part of GCSE biology. The part where the scientist explains to the politicians what an R number is was particularly useful. Of course, everyone knows what a bloody R number is now! 
The DVD has gone back in the cupboard. I don't want to traumatise them!


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## mjr (26 Nov 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> The part where the scientist explains to the politicians what an R number is was particularly useful. Of course, everyone knows what a bloody R number is now!


I'm still not sure all the politicians do...


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## Alex321 (26 Nov 2021)

ColinJ said:


> There are plenty of books like that already!
> 
> This was always going to happen one day with global air travel able to spread new bugs around the world almost before we knew what was happening. I watched "_*Contagion*_" 9 or 10 year ago and that was the movie's plot.


There was a BBC drama series on the same subject, called Survivors, back in the 70's. I vividly remember watching that as a teenager.


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## ColinJ (26 Nov 2021)

Alex321 said:


> There was a BBC drama series on the same subject, called Survivors, back in the 70's. I vividly remember watching that as a teenager.


I don't remember watching that, but it was when I was out at the pub nearly every night!


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## midlife (26 Nov 2021)

50,000 cases a day and Omicron on the horizon . Looks like at work we will be reducing covid precautions to get more people through the doors........


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## Joey Shabadoo (26 Nov 2021)

Alex321 said:


> There was a BBC drama series on the same subject, called Survivors, back in the 70's. I vividly remember watching that as a teenager.


Was that not based on a rabies outbreak?


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## Unkraut (27 Nov 2021)

midlife said:


> "By the end of this winter everyone in Germany will either be vaccinated, recovered or dead,"
> 
> Says Germany's health minister. Wonder if our government will say anything similar....


I wondered if this quotation would make its way across the Channel. It was a clever play on words. I think very belatedly that the danger of the virus, and the fact that if you are unvaccinated you will catch it sometime between now and Easter has concentrated minds and the willingness to be vaccinated has started to increase. Too late to stop the fourth wave. The bluntness of the acting health minister's words reflect some of the frustration at about 20% of the adult population refusing to get vaccinated, and thereby become drivers of the infection rate, and overloading of hospitals.

On the other hand, the same health minister said a short while ago it was right to allow the emergency country-wide legislation to lapse (yesterday), sending a clear signal that the pandemic was nearly over. He had to backtrack on this extremely quickly, but the damage was done. The replacement legislation does not allow for curfews or lockdowns on the grounds they may be unconstitutional, and has pushed responsibility back to the states/Länder. 

It's agonising watching the political class make the same mistakes as last year, mainly in dithering. My opinion is they are simply worn out. It has long been apparent that a 70% vaccination rate is insufficient for the new variant although it would have been enough a year ago. This fact does not seem to have sunk into the brains of those who make decisions.

There is a power vacuum because the newly elected government is not in office yet, and the old has to continue on a caretaker basis until the new is sworn in. Merkel will be missed - she summoned the leaders of the new coalition to the Chancellery a couple of days ago and from what has leaked out basically told them 'you've got to do more than this and you've got to do it now'. Couldn't come at a worse time.


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## geocycle (27 Nov 2021)

@Unkraut great point about politicians being worn out. While we are rightly programmed to be critical of them, the personal load they carry is very substantial. I work for a large organisation and the leaders have been under huge pressure for the whole pandemic.


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## cougie uk (27 Nov 2021)

geocycle said:


> @Unkraut great point about politicians being worn out. While we are rightly programmed to be critical of them, the personal load they carry is very substantial. I work for a large organisation and the leaders have been under huge pressure for the whole pandemic.



Still there's always time for Peppa Pig land eh ?


----------



## Alex321 (27 Nov 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Was that not based on a rabies outbreak?


No, it was a new virus, I think artificially created.


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## fossyant (27 Nov 2021)

Bojo's just announced PCR testing for all entrants to UK and isolate until clear

Also mask wearing back for shops and public transport.


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## Joey Shabadoo (27 Nov 2021)

Looks like this new variant has got them worried.


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## ColinJ (27 Nov 2021)

I will be interested to see how many people DO wear masks now. Recently, it seemed to have dropped to about 10% in shops here and about 1% on trains!


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## Julia9054 (27 Nov 2021)

fossyant said:


> Bojo's just annunced PCR testing for all entrants to UK an islte until


Hmmm - my eldest is a musician and has a gig in Paris next Saturday following by another in St Helens on the Sunday


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## fossyant (27 Nov 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> Looks like this new variant has got them worried.



Given the number of infected people arriving on recent flights, no surprise then.

Just how will we know it's the new variant as they don't usually test the variant - I assume they will introduce this with all PCR's as any close contacts are to isolate.


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## Kajjal (27 Nov 2021)

Just come back from a Chinese takeaway, a total of ten people came while I was waiting in none wearing masks including older people.


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## Beebo (27 Nov 2021)

fossyant said:


> Also mask wearing back for shops and public transport.


But not pubs? Crazy. 
Shops are open and well spaced. Pubs in winter as usual packed breeding grounds.


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## Julia9054 (27 Nov 2021)

Beebo said:


> But not pubs? Crazy.
> Shops are open and well spaced. Pubs in winter as usual packed breeding grounds.


Pubs are avoidable, shops - for most people - are not.


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## slowmotion (27 Nov 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> Pubs are avoidable, shops - for most people - are not.


Yes, but the pubgoers go to shops as well.


----------



## vickster (27 Nov 2021)

fossyant said:


> Given the number of infected people arriving on recent flights, no surprise then.
> 
> Just how will we know it's the new variant as they don't usually test the variant - I assume they will introduce this with all PCR's as any close contacts are to isolate.


Apparently… an S-gene dropout) in the standard tests and that can be used to track the variant without doing a full genetic analysis


----------



## cougie uk (27 Nov 2021)

fossyant said:


> Bojo's just announced PCR testing for all entrants to UK and isolate until clear
> 
> Also mask wearing back for shops and public transport.


What's the odds you'll still get photos of Johnson in places without mask ?

I mean the hospital example. Jesus. How ignorant can anyone be ??


----------



## slowmotion (27 Nov 2021)

Does anybody know how harmful this new kid on the block is? We are told it's very easily transmitted but I don't know how deadly it is.


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## midlife (27 Nov 2021)

From what I have read it's maybe not more lethal than delta but transmission is increased (even in double jabbed) and could evade vaccine / immunity. I thought they might have gone a bit further given the potential for Omicron to do the above.


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## fossyant (27 Nov 2021)

Possibly more infectious.


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## fossyant (27 Nov 2021)

Unfortunately, those that have had the jabs may catch it, won't be really ill, but more and more chance for this to badly affect un-vaccinated. And, of course, poses a greater risk of catching it to those vaxxed but with weakened immune systems/other life threattening illnesses (e.g. poor CV health).

I can see Nursing Home visits being difficult again.


----------



## slowmotion (27 Nov 2021)

I just found a recent CNN clip with Dr Fauci......

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/26/health/omicron-variant-what-we-know/index.html


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## Bazzer (27 Nov 2021)

Is is just me who finds these telegraphed announcements frustrating? How many hours will elapse, millions of footfalls take place in shops, or public transport journeys underaken, before face coverings, unless medically exempt, are compulsory?


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## Milzy (27 Nov 2021)

Bazzer said:


> Is is just me who finds these telegraphed announcements frustrating? How many hours will elapse, millions of footfalls take place in shops, or public transport journeys underaken, before face coverings, unless medically exempt, are compulsory?


They’ll never be compulsory now after all this time. Also people will revolt in the U.K. if they tried it.


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## Alex321 (27 Nov 2021)

Milzy said:


> They’ll never be compulsory now after all this time. Also people will revolt in the U.K. if they tried it.


They will be. They have never stopped being compulory in the rest of the UK, and I nave see no signs of revolt Wales or Scotland. Just bemusement at them not being in England.


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## vickster (27 Nov 2021)

Milzy said:


> They’ll never be compulsory now after all this time. Also people will revolt in the U.K. if they tried it.


Maybe people will actually stop being selfish, inconsiderate daffodils this time?


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## MrGrumpy (27 Nov 2021)

Alex321 said:


> They will be. They have never stopped being compulory in the rest of the UK, and I nave see no signs of revolt Wales or Scotland. Just bemusement at them not being in England.


Boris could have kept mask use the same as all the other devolved governments but chose not to. I’d like to see some tightening even up here. Sh…ts about to hit the fan !


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## Alex321 (27 Nov 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> Boris could have kept mask use the same as all the other devolved governments but chose not to. I’d like to see some tightening even up here. Sh…ts about to hit the fan !


Yeah, he could have, and IMO should have. It surprised me yesterday, driving from Wales to Scotland, how uncomfortable the numbers of people without masks made me in the motorway services in England.


----------



## classic33 (27 Nov 2021)

ColinJ said:


> I will be interested to see how many people DO wear masks now. Recently, it seemed to have dropped to about 10% in shops here and about 1% on trains!


I expect to see more "exempt from wearing one" this time round.


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## deptfordmarmoset (27 Nov 2021)

classic33 said:


> I expect to see more "exempt from wearing one" this time round.


We've got a Prime Minister who has repeatedly resisted wearing a mask, a government that has made wearing a mask a matter of personal choice, ignoring the danger this creates for other people as though vaccines made transmission impossible, and a steadfast refusal to make mask wearing mandatory. Try getting adherence to mask wearing advice to gain any serious hold.


----------



## mjr (27 Nov 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> We've got a Prime Minister who has repeatedly resisted wearing a mask, a government that has made wearing a mask a matter of personal choice, ignoring the danger this creates for other people as though vaccines made transmission impossible, and a steadfast refusal to make mask wearing mandatory. Try getting adherence to mask wearing advice to gain any serious hold.


Nonetheless, I am encouraged by that survey I linked recently that I think had a significant minority (maybe 28% of non wearers IIRC) saying they would wear them again if required to by government. This is a numbers game and each extra wearer lowers the risk a bit.

Today's trains have been hell. About 10% masked, both before and after Boris's speech, despite stations on this line still having blunt "wear a face covering" posters, not the "please ... if you don't mind, to show respect for others"-style version used at Great Northern stations since July. The powers will have to do some attention-grabbing publicity for the new requirements.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (27 Nov 2021)

mjr said:


> Nonetheless, I am encouraged by that survey I linked recently that I think had a significant minority (maybe 28% of non wearers IIRC) saying they would wear them again if required to by government. This is a numbers game and each extra wearer lowers the risk a bit.
> 
> Today's trains have been hell. About 10% masked, both before and after Boris's speech, despite stations on this line still having blunt "wear a face covering" posters, not the "please ... if you don't mind, to show respect for others"-style version used at Great Northern stations since July. The powers will have to do some attention-grabbing publicity for the new requirements.


Without enforcement of mandatory mask-wearing legislation, the government-granted right to harm, possibly fatally, other people is going to continue. I'm speaking about England, here, because the other UK nations have different approaches.


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## Ajax Bay (28 Nov 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Without enforcement of mandatory mask-wearing legislation, the government-granted right to harm, possibly fatally, other people is going to continue. I'm speaking about England, here, because the other UK nations have different approaches.


The government allows people to drive motor vehicles, and sometimes collisions of pedestrians, cyclists and other road transport with motor vehicles have fatal consequences. Do you consider this a "government-granted right to harm, possibly fatally, other people"? I think a more measured response and a little less hyperbole would be more likely to get traction.
I have been wearing a mask, of my own volition, in every public indoor/travel/confined space since last year, except in pubs (and the odd restaurant - EOTHO). Can I enquire whether you advocate mask-wearing in pubs, and how does that work out with quaffing to odd pint or three, in the company of friends? Or do you advocate that pubs and eating places be closed? If you think trains and buses should continue to operate, I guess that principle applies to aeroplanes too?


----------



## KnittyNorah (28 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I have been wearing a mask, of my own volition, in every public indoor/travel/confined space since last year, except in pubs (and the odd restaurant - EOTHO). Can I enquire whether you advocate mask-wearing in pubs, and how does that work out with quaffing to odd pint or three, in the company of friends? Or do you advocate that pubs and eating places be closed? If you think trains and buses should continue to operate, I guess that principle applies to aeroplanes too?



I think there is a great difference between the legislation of mask-wearing in places it is likely many or even most of us must frequent - such as public transport and shops - and those we can choose, or not, to frequent such as hospitality venues. 
Neither do I consider flying to be - generally - in the same league as 'public transport', at least within one's own nation or group of nations and for the majority of people. 
I was very cheered during my week away in Harrogate to see that, at least in some parts of this country, the majority of people I met in my wanderings around and about were masking, and there appeared to be fewer of the nose-free sub-type of wearer than there are round here in central Lancashire.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (28 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> The government allows people to drive motor vehicles, and sometimes collisions of pedestrians, cyclists and other road transport with motor vehicles have fatal consequences. Do you consider this a "government-granted right to harm, possibly fatally, other people"? I think a more measured response and a little less hyperbole would be more likely to get traction.


If I drove around with no consideration for the wellbeing of others I'd soon find myself sanctioned. Yet this behaviour is allowed in matters of others' health when it comes to covid. And I've given up hope of anyone getting any proper traction on this. Accepting this is the inverse of a measured response.


----------



## DaveReading (28 Nov 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> If I drove around with no consideration for the wellbeing of others I'd soon find myself sanctioned. Yet this behaviour is allowed in matters of others' health when it comes to covid. And I've given up hope of anyone getting any proper traction on this. Accepting this is the inverse of a measured response.



Exactly.

Try suggesting to the average non-mask wearer that they might at least maintain a safe distance from you, and prepare to be told to f*** off.


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## MrGrumpy (28 Nov 2021)

Face masks mandatory in secondary schools , England soon?!

Think it’s always bern mandatory in all the devolved nations ?


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## DaveReading (28 Nov 2021)

In Scotland, yes. In Wales, no.


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## Alex321 (28 Nov 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> Face masks mandatory in secondary schools , England soon?!
> 
> Think it’s always bern mandatory in all the devolved nations ?


Not in Schools in Wales, but required in all public transport and indoor public spaces except hospitality venues where food or drink is sdrved.


----------



## Bazzer (29 Nov 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> ....
> I have been wearing a mask, of my own volition, in every public indoor/travel/confined space since last year, except in pubs (and the odd restaurant - EOTHO). Can I enquire whether you advocate mask-wearing in pubs, and how does that work out with quaffing to odd pint or three, in the company of friends? Or do you advocate that pubs and eating places be closed? If you think trains and buses should continue to operate, I guess that principle applies to aeroplanes too?


In October when I travelled, CalMac were enforcing mask wearing on the Scrabter - Stromness ferry on all parts of the vessel, even in the bar. With the mask only coming off your face to physically drink.


----------



## lazybloke (29 Nov 2021)

Milzy said:


> Maybe you could write a science fiction book about that happening. In *10 years time *25% of the planet will still be unvaxed so we’ll know more about this living experiment by then.


Maybe in 10 years time, science fact will show that Milzy could have survived covid by taking simple precautions like wearing a mask.


----------



## Oldhippy (29 Nov 2021)

It is beyond contention that in huge parts of S.E Asia infection rates are historically low among the population for colds, flu purely because out of politeness for others many wear a mask and did before the current pandemic.


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (29 Nov 2021)

That's what I don't get - wearing a mask is the polite thing to do for others. Why am I hearing folk in the media describing it as "a blight on life"?


----------



## Oldhippy (29 Nov 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> That's what I don't get - wearing a mask is the polite thing to do for others. Why am I hearing folk in the media describing it as "a blight on life"?


Because sadly it's a Me, Me, Me, I'm alright Jack world we live in now.


----------



## vickster (29 Nov 2021)

Joey Shabadoo said:


> That's what I don't get - wearing a mask is the polite thing to do for others. Why am I hearing folk in the media describing it as "a blight on life"?


Maybe @Milzy and @Landsurfer could enlighten as to why they personally won't wear a mask in an indoor space/public transport? What is their reason for their 'personal choice' 🤷‍♀️


----------



## Johnno260 (29 Nov 2021)

I have never understood the anti mask issues, it's really nothing that impacts anyone at all, it's not painful, I can't see how people link it to being oppressed, if they truly believe it's oppression they need to take a huge reality check.

It just seems like a bunch of snowflakes who like to moan about things.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (29 Nov 2021)

Got an anti vaxxer leaflet through the letterbox today. They have timed it perfectly for the recycling collection.


----------



## KnittyNorah (29 Nov 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Got an anti vaxxer leaflet through the letterbox today. They have timed it perfectly for the recycling collection.



Recycling is as good a use as any, unless you can use it to pick up dog turds or something like that!


----------



## MontyVeda (29 Nov 2021)

vickster said:


> Maybe @Milzy and @Landsurfer could enlighten as to why they personally won't wear a mask in an indoor space/public transport? What is their reason for their 'personal choice' 🤷‍♀️


I tried to ask them about the vaccine in the 'booster' thread and that whole thread has seemingly disappeared... possibly at their request, to avoid answering awkward questions


----------



## PeteXXX (30 Nov 2021)

In town, today, including inside a shopping centre/mall. 
Most folk were wearing masks, but, as with last time, quite a few Denyers Dongles hung round necks.


----------



## markemark (30 Nov 2021)

Quite a big change here in compliance and the general mood of people.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (30 Nov 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> Recycling is as good a use as any, unless you can use it to pick up dog turds or something like that!



The leaflet already had a load of shoot on it.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (30 Nov 2021)

Booster for me will be Fri. Must get in my rides next couple of days in case side effects.


----------



## Bike Tyson (30 Nov 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> I have never understood the anti mask issues, it's really nothing that impacts anyone at all, it's not painful, I can't see how people link it to being oppressed, if they truly believe it's oppression they need to take a huge reality check.
> 
> It just seems like a bunch of snowflakes who like to moan about things.



I don't believe the masks offer much if any protection from what I read before Covid hit but if it puts other people at ease then why not wear one.
I do think there is an argument just like in the dreaded helmet debates that if you think you are safer because of a helmet/mask you will take more risks and open yourself up to more chance of injury/illness.


----------



## classic33 (30 Nov 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> I don't believe the masks offer much if any protection from what I read before Covid hit but if it puts other people at ease then why not wear one.
> I do think there is an argument just like in the dreaded helmet debates that if you think you are safer because of a helmet/mask you will take more risks and open yourself up to more chance of injury/illness.


The mask is to stop the possibility of you infecting others, not others infecting you. 
Unless you go full face and filter all incoming air.


----------



## Bike Tyson (30 Nov 2021)

classic33 said:


> The mask is to stop the possibility of you infecting others, not others infecting you.
> Unless you go full face and filter all incoming air.



Yes I know that, reason I said if it puts others at ease, if it was to protect the wearer I would not wear one.


----------



## classic33 (30 Nov 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> Yes I know that, reason I said if it puts others at ease, if it was to protect the wearer I would not wear one.


And you followed that by saying a person wearing a mask would take more risks.
What's wrong with wearing one to provide protection for yourself?


----------



## Bike Tyson (30 Nov 2021)

classic33 said:


> And you followed that by saying a person wearing a mask would take more risks.
> Go onto social media and you will see people think the masks offer protection for themseles as well as others.
> 
> 
> What's wrong with wearing one to provide protection for yourself?



You just answered that in your first post to me, they don't offer protection to the user.


----------



## Johnno260 (30 Nov 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> I don't believe the masks offer much if any protection from what I read before Covid hit but if it puts other people at ease then why not wear one.
> I do think there is an argument just like in the dreaded helmet debates that if you think you are safer because of a helmet/mask you will take more risks and open yourself up to more chance of injury/illness.



To be honest even if it’s a low % chance I will take that, it’s better than nothing for no effort.


----------



## Bike Tyson (30 Nov 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> To be honest even if it’s a low % chance I will take that, it’s better than nothing for no effort.



Like I said if it puts people at ease why not wear one.


----------



## DaveReading (30 Nov 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> You just answered that in your first post to me, they don't offer protection to the user.



To a limited extent, they do.


----------



## Bike Tyson (30 Nov 2021)

DaveReading said:


> To a limited extent, they do.



If limited means next to zero am with you.


----------



## classic33 (30 Nov 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> You just answered that in your first post to me, they don't offer protection to the user.


Howabout you stick to posting what was actually posted and not adding to it. More truthful that way.






Was actually




Post remains unedited by me.


----------



## Bike Tyson (30 Nov 2021)

classic33 said:


> Howabout you stick to posting what was actually posted and not adding to it. More truthful that way.
> 
> View attachment 620093
> 
> ...



I tried to answer both questions one under the other but the forum software made it look like you posted my first answer instead of me.

An honest mistake...


----------



## DCLane (30 Nov 2021)

markemark said:


> Quite a big change here in compliance and the general mood of people.



No compliance from staff or customers at Tesco in Ossett or the ESSO petrol station in Sandal, Wakefield unfortunately this evening. 

I took the opportunity to leave appropriate feedback from the link on my Tesco receipt.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Nov 2021)

I can report, after a bus journey today, that women are immune to covid. A few on the bus wore masks to hide their beards/goatees. Only a few. That's the law enfarced when we need a different vowel in there.


----------



## classic33 (30 Nov 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I can report, after a bus journey today, that women are immune to covid. A few on the bus wore masks to hide their beards/goatees. Only a few. That's the law enfarced when we need a different vowel in there.


Women on buses, with beards. Some hiding them with masks!!


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (30 Nov 2021)

classic33 said:


> Women on buses, with beards. Some hiding them with masks!!


They could have been simple blue chin warmers but I didn't want to get close enough to find out what they were hiding underneath the chin warmers.


----------



## classic33 (30 Nov 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> They could have been simple blue chin warmers but I didn't want to get close enough to find out what they were hiding underneath the chin warmers.


Can't say I blame you for not wanting to get closer than needed.


----------



## fossyant (1 Dec 2021)

Wife's company has officially said anyone with a cold should WFH, as that's how a covid infection started last week, and a whole floor sent home from one positive. We've already got that 'unofficially' at work. As from today, face masks must be worn everywhere you can't socially distance, so unless you are at your desk, then mask up. Can't see the student's complying at all.


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## mjr (1 Dec 2021)

Very high mask compliance in Lynn yesterday and a queue at the walk-in vaccination centre. Not what I expected at all, but it seems a case of the scary new variant in a neighbouring district motivates change!


----------



## SpokeyDokey (1 Dec 2021)

Morrisons Kendal yesterday. 

All customers wearing a mask. 

Most staff not! 

What gives?


----------



## mjr (1 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> I don't believe the masks offer much if any protection from what I read before Covid hit but if it puts other people at ease then why not wear one.
> I do think there is an argument just like in the dreaded helmet debates that if you think you are safer because of a helmet/mask you will take more risks and open yourself up to more chance of injury/illness.


There is an argument like that but it seems the effect is smaller and probably contradicted by people taking fewer risks because the mask both directly prevents thoughtless mouth/nose touching and reminds people the pandemic is on, plus the extra risk-taking is overshadowed by the vaccinated taking more risks. 

Latest studies suggest masks do offer significant (but very imperfect) protection to wearers. For example https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-10-2...-wearers-covid-19-infection-large-scale-study


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Dec 2021)

Just for a little levity.


----------



## mjr (1 Dec 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Morrisons Kendal yesterday.
> 
> All customers wearing a mask.
> 
> ...


Formally, the requirement does not apply to employees and they won't mask until their employer updates its risk assessments in light of the new variant. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1340/part/2/made

Informally, as long as there are screens at checkout where I'll be facing them, I don't get too excited about unmasked workers because they are in the room so long that masks won't prevent a significant build-up of any virus particles they are emitting. Ventilation is required... and that's part of why I don't shop in Morrison's whose local brutalist buildings could qualify for sick building syndrome with low ventilation, little natural light and chemical cleaning smells.


----------



## mjr (1 Dec 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> Just for a little levity.
> 
> View attachment 620118
> 
> ...


Not that funny. John Snow's 1854 findings on cholera were not accepted during his lifetime and thousands more died as a result. We have a long history of stupidity about diseases.


----------



## vickster (1 Dec 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Morrisons Kendal yesterday.
> 
> All customers wearing a mask.
> 
> ...


Not required to afaik
Very good compliance on train and tube this morning. Just one bloke who clearly couldn’t care less sat opposite me. I’d have put him in a high risk group too. Ok he might be exempt but I’d more say DGAF


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> Not that funny. John Snow's 1854 findings on cholera were not accepted during his lifetime and thousands more died as a result. We have a long history of stupidity about diseases.



I don't think it's going away anytime soon unfortunately, I have had several more friends and family decide ignoring medical science means the issue goes away.

Thing is nature provides stupidity moderation in the wild, we as a species have removed many risks from stupidity. 

I suppose humor is becoming my coping mechanism, no offense was intended, well if someone is a pseudoscience believer I hope it offended them, I know you don't fall into that category so it wasn't a barbed comment.


----------



## markemark (1 Dec 2021)

vickster said:


> Just one bloke who clearly couldn’t care less sat opposite me. I’d have put him in a high risk group too.


I’ve noticed that too. My unscientific experience is the more likely to be badly affected, the less likely to wear masks.


----------



## classic33 (1 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> There is an argument like that but it seems the effect is smaller and probably contradicted by people taking fewer risks because the mask both directly prevents thoughtless mouth/nose touching and reminds people the pandemic is on, *plus the extra risk-taking is overshadowed by the vaccinated taking more risks. *
> 
> Latest studies suggest masks do offer significant (but very imperfect) protection to wearers. For example https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-10-2...-wearers-covid-19-infection-large-scale-study


How about listing a few examples of these extra risks and the risk-taking by those who have been vaccinated and those who are mask wearers.

Maybe you feel that their use should cease, the risk might outweigh any benefit in your opinion.


----------



## mjr (1 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> How about listing a few examples of these extra risks and the risk-taking by those who have been vaccinated and those who are mask wearers.


· "I don't need to wear a mask because I've been vaccinated"
· "I can hug them because I've been vaccinated"
· "I'm alright to visit that packed pub because I've been vaccinated"

· "I don't need to isolate while showing covid symptoms because I'm wearing a mask"
· "I can hug them because I'm wearing a mask"
· "I'm alright to visit that packed pub because I'm wearing a mask"



> Maybe you feel that their use should cease, the risk might outweigh any benefit in your opinion.


Nope. Do you enjoy suggesting other people believe stuff you invented?


----------



## classic33 (1 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> · "I don't need to wear a mask because I've been vaccinated"
> · "I can hug them because I've been vaccinated"
> · "I'm alright to visit that packed pub because I've been vaccinated"
> 
> ...


Asked a question given your comments on the increased risk taking due to mask wearing and getting vaccinated.

The answers were predictable, plucked out of thin air.


----------



## mjr (1 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> Asked a question given your comments on the increased risk taking due to mask wearing and getting vaccinated.


Could you rephrase that as a sentence?



> The answers were predictable, plucked out of thin air.


The examples should be predictable because anyone who has been out and about the last year will have heard them. Probably most people who haven't will also have seen them on TV news vox pops and social media. Those nobbers are not rare!


----------



## GuyBoden (1 Dec 2021)

It would be nice if Branson, Musk, Zuckerberg, Bezo, Gates etc got together and paid for *everyone in the world* to be vaccinated against Covid-19.


----------



## Johnno260 (1 Dec 2021)

GuyBoden said:


> It would be nice if Branson, Musk, Zuckerberg, Bezo, Gates etc got together and paid for *everyone in the world* to be vaccinated against Covid-19.



Ignoring the fact that Gates already does a ton for charity, why should they? It’s not their job to.

I’m not being difficult, but if that’s the case we should all help as it’s as much my responsibility as theirs.


----------



## simongt (1 Dec 2021)

The issue with vaccinating / boosters is simply the logistics of having enough resources to be able to administer the actual jabs.


----------



## Bazzer (1 Dec 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> Just for a little levity.
> 
> View attachment 620118
> 
> ...


Similar sh1te was said at the time seatbelts were introduced. I recall my Dad for example, arguing against compulsion because he knew someone thrown from a convertible sports car in crash. That saved him from being crushed if he had been wearing a seat belt. 
I used seatbelts every time they were available, before they were compulsory and in my teens spent longer in convertible cars than my Dad had ever done in his life, but having a discussion with him about it was utterly pointless.


----------



## MrGrumpy (1 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> · "I don't need to wear a mask because I've been vaccinated"
> · "I can hug them because I've been vaccinated"
> · "I'm alright to visit that packed pub because I've been vaccinated"
> 
> ...


A lot of these reasons you list could have been mitigated if the message from those above had been clear and concise. It’s been anything but. Of course joe public can go find out themselves as all that info is in the public domain. I also think some choose to ignore and play the daft laddie.


----------



## oldwheels (2 Dec 2021)

On my last ferry trip there was 99% compliance with mask wearing. The exception was a group of 3 who came into the lounge wearing masks but immediately took them off. Then came the usual announcement on the public address system that it was the law in Scotland to wear masks on public transport including ferries unless exempt on medical grounds.
This group them fished about in their pockets and a handbag and produced green ribbons with a bit of card on the end which they put round their necks and continued their conversation. They came in wearing masks so did not seem a problem then. Tourists generally seem to have problem with mask wearing as most are English and see no reason to obey Scottish law.
I moved to another seat away from them.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (2 Dec 2021)

Merkel applying the screws to the unvaccinated. 

How long before it happens here?


----------



## fossyant (2 Dec 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Merkel applying the screws to the unvaccinated.
> 
> How long before it happens here?



Not good is it, I'm sort of on the fence about that, but I am jabbed.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (2 Dec 2021)

fossyant said:


> Not good is it, I'm sort of on the fence about that, but I am jabbed.



I'm Pro tbh.


----------



## fossyant (2 Dec 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I'm Pro tbh.



It's definitely coming given what's happening in NZ, Austria etc.


----------



## PK99 (2 Dec 2021)

While we were in Madeira last week the* rules changed to require Vaccination AND weekly testing.*

- *Proof of vaccination for all events and massive testing* of the entire population (*every 7 days*).
- *Participating in/attending activities/events* - *(Vaccination Certificate AND Rapid Antigen Test required as November 27th)* to participate in or attend public and private sector activities, events including sports, restaurants, hairdressers, gyms, bars and clubs, cultural events, cinemas, nightlife activities, games, casinos, and other similar activities, people must be *vaccinated and tested (every 7 days)*.


----------



## vickster (2 Dec 2021)

Full on but infinitely more possible on an island with 250k people vs 65m.

I also think vax passports should be made mandatory for large events where security is in place to control, sports matches, concerts etc. Tougher to put that onus on smaller places like shops, pubs, gyms. 
Especially given the number of cockwombles who get abusive towards staff when simply asked to put a mask on ffs


----------



## Johnno260 (2 Dec 2021)

I'm currently having a "discussion" with someone, and their claim is Myocarditis only existed after the vaccine was released...

I have found peer reviewed documents saying risk from cardio issue is higher from the virus then from the vaccine, but as usual I get a nuh uh and the doctors who did the papers are paid shills, the way they can just dismiss accredited doctors and scientists never ceases to amaze me.


----------



## Julia9054 (2 Dec 2021)

Went to my youngest son's graduation ceremony yesterday. We were required to show vaccination proof on entry. Masks had to be worn throughout and security staff were reminding people to put them on. No shaking of hands but a pat on the shoulder instead for each graduate


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## ColinJ (2 Dec 2021)

oldwheels said:


> Tourists generally seem to have problem with mask wearing as most are English *and see no reason to obey Scottish law.*


Hardly surprising since they apparently see no reason to obey English law either!


----------



## geocycle (2 Dec 2021)

Julia9054 said:


> Went to my youngest son's graduation ceremony yesterday. We were required to show vaccination proof on entry. Masks had to be worn throughout and security staff were reminding people to put them on. No shaking of hands but a pat on the shoulder instead for each graduate



Thats interesting I’ve got one in a couple of weeks. I’ll be on the stage in the fancy dress! Was wondering what sort of measures might be introduced. At least I have the perfect excuse for not belting out the national anthem this year. Son had his in summer and there was no contact at all, staff wore masks, the audience, apart from me, largely didn’t.


----------



## Bike Tyson (2 Dec 2021)

View: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1466493865880395780


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## midlife (2 Dec 2021)

Hopefully it's evasion from natural immunity doesn't translate to the same evasion from immunity provided by vaccination. 

As the current plan seems to be running 50,000 positive tests a day offset by "vaccinating the way out of the pandemic" its fingers crossed........


----------



## Ming the Merciless (2 Dec 2021)

midlife said:


> Hopefully it's evasion from natural immunity doesn't translate to the same evasion from immunity provided by vaccination.
> 
> As the current plan seems to be running 50,000 positive tests a day offset by "vaccinating the way out of the pandemic" its fingers crossed........



When you say “its evasion” to what are you referring? The evidence is that Omicron is more transmissible, but no evidence it causes more serious illness (than previous variants).


----------



## midlife (2 Dec 2021)

Evasion suggests it manages to infect people with antibodies / immunity from natural infection with non omicron variant or from vaccines. Not related to disease severity.


----------



## Julia9054 (3 Dec 2021)

geocycle said:


> Thats interesting I’ve got one in a couple of weeks. I’ll be on the stage in the fancy dress! Was wondering what sort of measures might be introduced. At least I have the perfect excuse for not belting out the national anthem this year. Son had his in summer and there was no contact at all, staff wore masks, the audience, apart from me, largely didn’t.


Everyone on stage wore masks but took them off to speak. It was the Royal Northern College of Music so they had a student operatic tenor accompanied by the organ to sing the National Anthem.


----------



## MartinQ (3 Dec 2021)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59516131
at 13:47. A fairly 'armless way to try and avoid the vaccine.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (3 Dec 2021)

MartinQ said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59516131
> at 13:47. A fairly 'armless way to try and avoid the vaccine.


Silly con. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tries-to-dodge-covid-vaccine-wearing-fake-arm


----------



## Milzy (4 Dec 2021)

80% on train not wearing masks. They are not allowed to enforce it. 
However it’s ok to go into a pub with no mask isn’t it? Especially kissing everyone in the pub a lot more than usual this festive season. 
People may call them selfish but I don’t blame them the way the rules are chopped & changed constantly.


----------



## Oldhippy (4 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> 80% on train not wearing masks. They are not allowed to enforce it.
> However it’s ok to go into a pub with no mask isn’t it? Especially kissing everyone in the pub a lot more than usual this festive season.
> People may call them selfish but I don’t blame them the way the rules are chopped & changed constantly.


Isn't it more a case of basic common sense and personal responsibility?


----------



## Milzy (4 Dec 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Isn't it more a case of basic common sense and personal responsibility?


Most people in the real world don’t give a hoot. Cold world.


----------



## MartinQ (4 Dec 2021)

Guess they weren't wearing their masks
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59516896


----------



## Alex321 (4 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> Most people in the real world don’t give a hoot. Cold world.


One day, you should try meeting some of these people in the "real world" you keep talking of. I have seen zero evidence to support your ridiculous hypothesis about them, and I suspect if you actually met a few you would realise it is just wrong.


----------



## mjr (4 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> 80% on train not wearing masks. They are not allowed to enforce it.


Who isn't allowed to enforce it? https://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/n...man-fined-1-100-not-wearing-face-mask-harrow/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59516804


----------



## classic33 (4 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> Who isn't allowed to enforce it? https://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/n...man-fined-1-100-not-wearing-face-mask-harrow/
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59516804


The drivers. They've to rely on inspectors to enforce the rule.
The person in that article was done in march this year, not this week


----------



## Milzy (5 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> Who isn't allowed to enforce it? https://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/n...man-fined-1-100-not-wearing-face-mask-harrow/
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59516804


Out of date. 
Plus you can get false exempt cards from Amazon or guy in pub. They can’t challenge disability true or false. Get in the real world.


----------



## Slick (5 Dec 2021)

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1467257888351698946


----------



## mjr (5 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> Out of date.
> Plus you can get false exempt cards from Amazon or guy in pub. They can’t challenge disability true or false. Get in the real world.


Out of date? The second link is about incidents from last week!

Many unreasonably unmasked train riders are apparently not smart enough to plead disability, which is hardly surprising if they are too dim to cover their face to reduce the risk and help get R down.


----------



## classic33 (5 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> Out of date? The second link is about incidents from last week!
> 
> Many unreasonably unmasked train riders are apparently not smart enough to plead disability, which is hardly surprising if they are too dim to cover their face to reduce the risk and help get R down.


And it's still inspectors, or as shown on the news, the police handing out the "reminders". Despite it being a condition of travel(for TFL) since masks were made compulsory on public transport last year.

Bus drivers cannot stop them boarding, nor can guards where the train service still have them. The threat of violence against them is too great.

The question is, why have they taken so long to start doing this, given that it is a condition of travel, for TFL at least.


----------



## Milzy (5 Dec 2021)

It’s not a passed law to be fined. They can just refuse & if they get pestered then they should seek legal help. Anyone handing money over are daft. Also there’s far too many unmasked to police so they don’t feel scared.


----------



## DaveReading (5 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> Plus you can get false exempt cards from Amazon or guy in pub.



There is no such thing as a "false exempt card". No exemption card carries any legal weight.


----------



## Milzy (5 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> There is no such thing as a "false exempt card". No exemption card carries any legal weight.


children under the age of 11 (The UK Health and Security Agency does not recommend face coverings for children under the age of 3 for health and safety reasons)
people who cannot put on, wear or remove a face covering because of a physical or mental illness or impairment, or disability
people for whom putting on, wearing or removing a face covering will cause severe distress
people speaking to or providing assistance to someone who relies on lip reading, clear sound or facial expressions to communicate
to avoid the risk of harm or injury to yourself or others
police officers and other emergency workers, given that this may interfere with their ability to serve the public. 

You don’t even have to show the card legally, it’s just for your own piece of mind.


----------



## classic33 (5 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> children under the age of 11 (The UK Health and Security Agency does not recommend face coverings for children under the age of 3 for health and safety reasons)
> people who cannot put on, wear or remove a face covering because of a physical or mental illness or impairment, or disability
> people for whom putting on, wearing or removing a face covering will cause severe distress
> people speaking to or providing assistance to someone who relies on lip reading, clear sound or facial expressions to communicate
> ...


I've the following three on a cheap handset.













And a fourth, "issued" by First. More was made of asking why last year than this, by the drivers/guards. No questions this time round.

There's the odd time that wearing one will be impossible for me. Inside of the mouth swollen, damage to the jaw or head.


----------



## classic33 (5 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> View: https://twitter.com/statsjamie/status/1467530439132856324



Not a very reliable source though.


----------



## Bike Tyson (5 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> Not a very reliable source though.



It is from The Marr show on the BBC 
Starts at 19 minutes
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00129kk/the-andrew-marr-show-05122021


----------



## Ajax Bay (5 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> It is from The Marr show on the BBC
> Starts at 19 minutes
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00129kk/the-andrew-marr-show-05122021


So what do you think, @Bike Tyson ? What is the top point you are trying to share? Just so as we're clear. Or are you just sharing for info? Add value.


----------



## Bike Tyson (5 Dec 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> So what do you think, @Bike Tyson ? What is the top point you are trying to share? Just so as we're clear. Or are you just sharing for info? Add value.



Do I need to have/make a point?


----------



## vickster (5 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> Do I need to have/make a point?


Yep as per forum rules on reposting that you agreed to when joining

Reposting. Please don't repost entire articles from other sites. To initiate a discussion about an article, post a link to the article, quote a bit of it if you like, and include your own comments or questions so people know why you think it's worthy of discussion.
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/forum-rules.213557/


----------



## Pat "5mph" (5 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> Do I need to have/make a point?



*Mod Note:*
Yes, you do: please refer to the forum's rules, cheers.


----------



## Bike Tyson (5 Dec 2021)

Pat "5mph" said:


> *Mod Note:*
> Yes, you do: please refer to the forum's rules, cheers.



I just deleted the post as I have no opinion and you canny make me post one


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Dec 2021)

My eldest grandchild (Secondary school) has just come out of quarantine and now the youngest one has tested positive on a LFT. She's at a medium sized primary school in Bexley and 18 of the staff have now tested positive along with a growing number of children.


----------



## alicat (5 Dec 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> My eldest grandchild (Secondary school) has just come out of quarantine and now the youngest one has tested positive on a LFT. She's at a medium sized primary school in Bexley and 18 of the staff have now tested positive along with a growing number of children.



Virtual  to all involved.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (5 Dec 2021)

alicat said:


> Virtual  to all involved.


Thanks. She's just sore-eyed in the morning but she's not the kind of girl to do isolation so it'll be hard on her. My daughter just told me that she's pulled the kids from school. I don't know whether she'll be able to stick to that until Christmas but she's pulling her hair out right now.


----------



## mjr (5 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> It’s not a passed law to be fined.


Yes, yes it is: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1340/regulation/11/made


----------



## vickster (5 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> It’s not a passed law to be fined. They can just refuse & if they get pestered then they should seek legal help. Anyone handing money over are daft. Also there’s far too many unmasked to police so they don’t feel scared.


Indeed it is on TFL
https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/face-coverings


----------



## Oldhippy (5 Dec 2021)

Utterly beyond me that there are still people who are anti mask.


----------



## classic33 (5 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> Yes, yes it is: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1340/regulation/11/made


And again, the drivers and guards aren't "authorised persons". 
First instructed their drivers not to challenge last year. They've to rely on their inspectors or the police to enforce it.


----------



## mjr (5 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> And again, the drivers and guards aren't "authorised persons".
> First instructed their drivers not to challenge last year. They've to rely on their inspectors or the police to enforce it.


Indeed. No-one is saying otherwise, unless I've got them on ignore too.


----------



## classic33 (5 Dec 2021)

vickster said:


> Indeed it is on TFL
> https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/face-coverings


Not everyone lives or travels in London.


----------



## classic33 (5 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> Indeed. No-one is saying otherwise, unless I've got them on ignore too.


Who's going to challenge, and issue the FPN's when neither inspectors or police are available.


----------



## mjr (5 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> Who's going to challenge, and issue the FPN's when neither inspectors or police are available.


Why does that matter? Hundreds, if not thousands, of fines are being issued anyway.


----------



## vickster (5 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> Not everyone lives or travels in London.


Clearly not, but he said that not wearing mask is not punishable by a fine, he didn’t specify a jurisdiction. On TFL services it is.
Not everyone lives in W Yorks either


----------



## Alex321 (5 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> There is no such thing as a "false exempt card". No exemption card carries any legal weight.


The fact none of them carry any legal weight does not n any way mean there is no such thing.


----------



## classic33 (5 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> Why does that matter? Hundreds, if not thousands, of fines are being issued anyway.


TFL had over 500 extra staff* on duty on Tuesday and Wednesday last week. I'm willing to say many of those extra staff were on overtime/working their day off. How often, and how long can they carry that on for?

If there's no-one to enforce the rule, who's going to do the issuing and enforcement?

*Those extra staff were there to enforce the wearing of masks.


----------



## Alex321 (5 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> It’s not a passed law to be fined. They can just refuse & if they get pestered then they should seek legal help. Anyone handing money over are daft. Also there’s far too many unmasked to police so they don’t feel scared.


They can, of course, refuse. And the driver/inspector can just chuck them off the bus.

Unfortunately, I believe they are required to stop the bus when doing so.


----------



## Alex321 (5 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> And again, the drivers and guards aren't "authorised persons".
> First instructed their drivers not to challenge last year. They've to rely on their inspectors or the police to enforce it.


They are on TfL, but agreed, they aren't for most of the country.


----------



## classic33 (5 Dec 2021)

vickster said:


> Clearly not, but he said that not wearing mask is not punishable by a fine, he didn’t specify a jurisdiction. On TFL services it is.
> Not everyone lives in W Yorks either


True, but First don't operate only in West Yorkshire. Nor do they operate only buses.

TFL have had mask wearing as a condition of carriage since it became compulsory last year.


----------



## Johnno260 (5 Dec 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> My eldest grandchild (Secondary school) has just come out of quarantine and now the youngest one has tested positive on a LFT. She's at a medium sized primary school in Bexley and 18 of the staff have now tested positive along with a growing number of children.



We had a similar issue, my youngest came out of isolation with the rest of us, a couple of days at school and caught the vomiting bug doing the rounds and another week off school.

it’s going to be a long winter.

the sales guys aren’t comfortable about me returning to the office either, my isolation ended on the 13th of November but I had sporadic temperature hikes for a further week, my boss in the US told me to wfh for an additional1.5 weeks for month end, but the U.K. sales term don’t want me back fearing I’m still infectious. I told them it’s up to them to clear it with my boss not me as I don’t have an issue.


----------



## Ajax Bay (5 Dec 2021)

Independent SAGE (Friday) has shared some well-presented data including on Omicron. Slides and presentation linked below. The first 23 minutes uses the slides to describe:
1.Cases
2.Hospitalisation and Death
3.Long Covid
4.Omicron
5.Vaccinations 
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/WeeklySlides_3December2021.pdf
youtube.com/watch?v=fg0tnIl6CTM&
Summary (precised):

Cases still driven by u/16s and parents - on an unstable plateau - London and SE growth negating falls elsewhere.
Admissions and deaths falling to flattish. 
In South Africa early indications are that Omicron growth more due to immune escape rather than 
increased infectiousness.
Worrying signs that under 5s are more affected in this wave than they have been 
previously (per admissions). 
iSAGE deduction: Every week we can delay Omicron growth in the UK, we can boost millions more 
people, and delaying growth is easiest in the early stages: action now.
Comment: I guess the government has addressed this to an extent (to delay significant Omicron variant growth, but is very wary of being 'blamed' for spoiling Christmas, for tens of millions.


----------



## midlife (5 Dec 2021)

From what I read about Omicron at the moment is that it has the potential to drive a big wave of infection. Even if it is less /the same lethality than delta a small percentage of a very large number could mean hospitals getting full again.


----------



## Ajax Bay (5 Dec 2021)

South Africa has had a *lot* of Covid infection, and what they lack for in vaccine induced immunity they perhaps have in infection induced immunity. It's not clear to me which is going to provide better protection from hospitalisation against this new variant; for 2 doses of vaccine at least; the 3rd dose looks transformative against delta.
IndieSAGE:
"Omicron has a growth advantage over Delta in South Africa and has spread rapidly –mostly so far in younger populations. We don’t know if it is more severe once infected. 
"The [variant's] advantage seems to be more immune escape than infectiousness –which means we can rely less on population immunity to prevent growth
"It has seeded in many countries worldwide, including the UK. It is likely there are hundreds of Omicron cases here already. 
"UK context very different to S Africa:
• Much older population [ETA: South Africa age median = 28]
• Much more vaccinated *and* much more boosted population
• It’s winter here, not summer
• We already have a large Delta wave going on."


----------



## Milzy (6 Dec 2021)

Alex321 said:


> They can, of course, refuse. And the driver/inspector can just chuck them off the bus.
> 
> Unfortunately, I believe they are required to stop the bus when doing so.


They’re not all school kids. Would you try & Chuck a 20 stone meat head gammon off a bus when you’re on £11 per hour & will get abuse!?


----------



## oldwheels (6 Dec 2021)

On my recent ferry journey there was about 98% wearing masks. One in the lounge was a Car Rally wonk and did not wear one as being too important and not Scottish anyway.
Supermarkets today in Oban mask wearing was again pretty high at probably 98%.
Non compliance here outside the tourist season seems pretty rare.


----------



## Milzy (6 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> Yes, yes it is: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1340/regulation/11/made


Not if they cry exempt.


----------



## MontyVeda (6 Dec 2021)

Those bloody goal posts just keep on moving


----------



## Milzy (6 Dec 2021)

MontyVeda said:


> Those bloody goal posts just keep on moving


In 10 days they’ll pull the rug from underneath our feet. Then people will start thinking it’s a serious matter again after so much freedom.


----------



## MontyVeda (6 Dec 2021)

Where's the 'woosh' emoticon?


----------



## DaveReading (6 Dec 2021)

Alex321 said:


> The fact none of them carry any legal weight does not in any way mean there is no such thing.



Wrong. 

Given that there is no such thing as a "genuine exempt card" then, by definition, there cannot be a "false exempt card" either.


----------



## Milzy (6 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Wrong.
> 
> Given that there is no such thing as a "genuine exempt card" then, by definition, there cannot be a "false exempt card" either.


Exempt cards are a thing you know.


----------



## DaveReading (6 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> Exempt cards are a thing you know.



Yes, they are a piece of cardboard with some writing on them. No more than that.


----------



## Ajax Bay (6 Dec 2021)

Tshwane District Omicron Variant Patient Profile - Early Features
The South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) report on hospitalized patients since the advent of the Omicron variant. Describes the condition of the hospitalised on 2 Dec - Omicron variant well established and v high percentage of Tshwane County in Gauteng province's infections so Omicron (as they put it) "reasonably assumed".
Two different (and not necessarily conflicting) assessments about Omicron:

milder than previous versions
much more contagious
SAMRC data seem to support a plausible explanation in support of both claims, but:
likely the apparent lower lethality is arising from some mix of:

demographic bias (or under-sampling if you like) of early outbreaks
an effect of not letting all the lags play out
the younger demographic in the SA population vs here
an effect of the virus mostly spreading in a population with high levels of immunity from recent infection and vaccination (latter higher in over 50s (57%) than under 50s (34%))
an effect of the virus mostly spreading in a population that (given its demographic and the excess deaths figures) has had an exceptional loss of vulnerable people in the last year
_“Looking at the mildness of the symptoms we are seeing, currently there is no reason for panicking as we don’t see any severely ill patients.” – Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association _
We'll just have to wait to find out. Would be great the variant turns out to be *intrinsically *less lethal, even if it is more infectious. Less hospitalisation; less deaths _ceteris paribus_.
[PINK/] IF this is the case, have the government 'made' yet another error: slowing the opportunity for Omicron to out-compete the more dangerous Delta?[/PINK/]


----------



## classic33 (6 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> Exempt cards are a thing you know.





DaveReading said:


> Yes, they are a piece of cardboard with some writing on them. No more than that.


Some aren't even printed.
The problem is that between them and the "flora" lanyard, for hidden disabilities, they are all self certified and issued.


----------



## Alex321 (6 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Wrong.
> 
> Given that there is no such thing as a "genuine exempt card" then, by definition, there cannot be a "false exempt card" either.


And why do you think there is no such thing as a "genuine exempt card"?

You certainly haven't said anything which comes close to establishing that.


----------



## DaveReading (6 Dec 2021)

Alex321 said:


> And why do you think there is no such thing as a "genuine exempt card"?
> 
> You certainly haven't said anything which comes close to establishing that.



If all else fails, try reading the Regulation.

There are only 9 categories of person who are exempt from its provisions (kids under 11, police on duty, emergency responders, etc). Clearly none of those have any requirement for an "exempt card".

If the individuals who get on buses or walk into pubs without a mask want to wear a card on a lanyard, it really ought to say "I accept that I am subject to the provisions of the Regulation, from which I am not exempt, but I claim I have a "reasonable excuse" (as defined therein) for being excused from compliance". The validity of that excuse would ultimately be for a court to decide, if it came to the crunch.

But of course they would then need either very small handwriting or a much bigger card.


----------



## classic33 (6 Dec 2021)

Alex321 said:


> And why do you think there is no such thing as a "genuine exempt card"?
> 
> You certainly haven't said anything which comes close to establishing that.


Because you'd need to see your GP to get an official letter stating your disability(ies) that qualify you as exempt. These letters cost around the £20 mark.
How many people would pay £20, and how many GP's would have the time to process them.


----------



## Alex321 (6 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> Because you'd need to see your GP to get an official letter stating your disability(ies) that qualify you as exempt. These letters cost around the £20 mark.
> How many people would pay £20, and how many GP's would have the time to process them.


I have no idea how many will be willing to do so. Nor do I have any idea what relevance that has to the point.,


----------



## Oldhippy (6 Dec 2021)

Seriously, unless you are someone who is disabled where they have no capacity or have medical issues with breathing generally, I don't want to wear a mask approach is not a thing. Whether you believe it or not research and millions of people who wear, and have worn a mask before Covid prove infection rates are lower with one when out and about.


----------



## Alex321 (6 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> If all else fails, try reading the Regulation.
> 
> There are only 9 categories of person who are exempt from its provisions (kids under 11, police on duty, emergency responders, etc). Clearly none of those have any requirement for an "exempt card".
> 
> ...


The government seem to disagree with you
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ngs-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own


----------



## classic33 (6 Dec 2021)

Alex321 said:


> I have no idea how many will be willing to do so. Nor do I have any idea what relevance that has to the point.,


If you treat it as an official, legal card, then it would have to be proven medically. The only person that could do that for you would be your GP. 
The same as any other medical exemption certificate/card. From disabled rail/travel card to blue badge.


----------



## DaveReading (6 Dec 2021)

Alex321 said:


> The government seem to disagree with you
> https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ngs-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own



It would be more accurate to say that the Government disagrees with itself.

Throughout the pandemic, pages on the gov.uk website headed "Guidance" have frequently been at odds with the legislation - for example the often misleading guidance about what we could and couldn't do during the lockdowns (debated extensively on CC at the time).

Nobody has ever been prosecuted (apart from a few subsequently overturned convictions early in the pandemic) for failing to follow the guidance. When you get fined for not following the rules, it's in relation to the legislation, which you can read here, if you so desire: The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Wearing of Face Coverings) (England) Regulations 2021 (legislation.gov.uk) 

Clearly you haven't.


----------



## Alex321 (6 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> If you treat it as an official,* legal card*, then it would have to be proven medically. The only person that could do that for you would be your GP.
> The same as any other medical exemption certificate/card. From disabled rail/travel card to blue badge.



True, but irrelevant, since nobody has suggested that.


----------



## classic33 (6 Dec 2021)

Alex321 said:


> True, but irrelevant, since nobody has suggested that.


You've come fairly close to saying there is.


Alex321 said:


> The fact none of them carry any legal weight does not n any way mean there is no such thing.


----------



## Alex321 (6 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> It would be more accurate to say that the Government disagrees with itself.
> 
> Throughout the pandemic, pages on the gov.uk website headed "Guidance" have frequently been at odds with the legislation - for example the often misleading guidance about what we could and couldn't do during the lockdowns (debated extensively on CC at the time).
> 
> Nobody has ever been prosecuted (apart from a few subsequently overturned convictions early in the pandemic) for failing to follow the guidance. When you get fined for not following the rules, it's in relation to the legislation, which you can read here, if you so desire: The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Wearing of Face Coverings) (England) Regulations 2021 (legislation.gov.uk)


You changed that while I was reading it 

I was about to ask why you had pointed to the general publications page, rather than the actual regulations 



> Clearly you haven't.


Any reasoning behind that?

And no, it wouldn't be accurate to say the government disagrees with itself in this case, though I fully agree the guidance has by no means been consistently in line with the actual legislation.

There is nothing in the article I posted the link to above which is in disagreement with the legislation, other than that they use the term "exempt" in laymans' terms rather than the strict legal sense.


----------



## Alex321 (6 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> You've come fairly close to saying there is.


In what way?

What was it about "the fact none of them carry any legal weight" that you missed?

I know perfectly well they carry no legal weight, and have never tried to suggest they might possibly be a legal card. But that doesn't mean there are no such things as "genuine" and "false" exemption cards.

If you have a genuine reasonable excuse, as listed in the regulations as to why you don't need to wear a mask, then an exemption card stating that is "genuine", whether it carries any legal weight or not.

If you have no such reasonable excuse, then any card saying you do is "false".

IMO, while the card carries no legal weight, and is certainly not necessary, I think it *should* be an offence to present a false card in order to avoid wearing a mask - a more serious offence than just refusing to wear the mask (which IMO should be enforced with fairly stiff penalties). But I know it isn't, and doubt that will happen.


----------



## DaveReading (6 Dec 2021)

Alex321 said:


> There is nothing in the article I posted the link to above which is in disagreement with the legislation, other than that they use the term "exempt" in laymans' terms rather than the strict legal sense.



And nowhere in either the guidance or legislation does it suggest or imply that a piece of paper has any significance whatsoever that would allow it to be described as either "genuine" or "false".

But this is where we came in. I'm done here ...


----------



## Joey Shabadoo (8 Dec 2021)

That deep inner howl of despair as it looks like a case of here-we-go-again.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 Dec 2021)

G-daughter's school (Bexley) has Omicron cases in years 1, 2 and 3. These years have been closed down. As there are over 10 members of staff off with various flavours of covid, and older brothers and sisters, there will be other years affected soon.


----------



## Mo1959 (8 Dec 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> G-daughter's school (Bexley) has Omicron cases in years 1, 2 and 3. These years have been closed down. As there are over 10 members of staff off with various flavours of covid, and older brothers and sisters, there will be other years affected soon.


Might have been a good idea to allow schools to break up early for Christmas?


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (8 Dec 2021)

Mo1959 said:


> Might have been a good idea to allow schools to break up early for Christmas?


Indeed. My daughter's withdrawn the kids from the school until the new year.


----------



## Ajax Bay (11 Dec 2021)

This has been in the news - a pre-print of a study released today. I'd observe that the LSHTM models over the last 20 months have been the poorest (in retrospect and compared to the better Imperial and best Warwick ones which in form SAGE) and always seemed, by adopting assumptions or otherwise, to achieve pessimistic (ie higher) estimates - none of which have been remotely reached even in January this year.

"New modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggests the Omicron variant has the potential to cause a wave of transmission in England that could lead to higher levels of cases and hospitalisations than those seen during January 2021."


----------



## Johnno260 (11 Dec 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> This has been in the news - a pre-print of a study released today. I'd observe that the LSHTM models over the last 20 months have been the poorest (in retrospect and compared to the better Imperial and best Warwick ones which in form SAGE) and always seemed, by adopting assumptions or otherwise, to achieve pessimistic (ie higher) estimates - none of which have been remotely reached even in January this year.
> 
> "New modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggests the Omicron variant has the potential to cause a wave of transmission in England that could lead to higher levels of cases and hospitalisations than those seen during January 2021."



Time of year and the usual seasonal ailments could compound issues as well.

The backlog the NHS has due to the pandemic and winter is going to be harsh, it’s been relentless for the doctors and nurses, I really do feel for them.


----------



## midlife (11 Dec 2021)

Our chief announced some relaxation of how our clinics work at the end of November to increase activity . Back towards business as usual....... 

I think omicron perhaps has scuppered that plan.


----------



## markemark (11 Dec 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> This has been in the news - a pre-print of a study released today. I'd observe that the LSHTM models over the last 20 months have been the poorest (in retrospect and compared to the better Imperial and best Warwick ones which in form SAGE) and always seemed, by adopting assumptions or otherwise, to achieve pessimistic (ie higher) estimates - none of which have been remotely reached even in January this year.
> 
> "New modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggests the Omicron variant has the potential to cause a wave of transmission in England that could lead to higher levels of cases and hospitalisations than those seen during January 2021."


This modelling assumes same severity illness as delta which I am hopeful is not the case


----------



## Ajax Bay (11 Dec 2021)

markemark said:


> This modelling assumes same severity illness as delta which I am hopeful is not the case.


As the pre-print says:
"Due to a lack of data, we assume Omicron has the same severity as Delta. If Omicron
exhibits lower severity than Delta, this would decrease the projected number of severe
outcomes in our model."
Here's hoping.
As James Naismith has observed:
"Data from South Africa are too early to conclude the disease is itself “mild”, the mildness may be explained by existing immunity and the age profile of infections. However, we can be reasonably confident that it is not significantly worse.
". . .long covid, a poorly understood complication is a life changing event in a proportion of all age groups.
[. . . more recent estimates of Rt]"from South Africa appear less awful. The different rate of vaccination in the UK and the control measures in place, mean there should be some caution about definitive statements. There will be a lively cottage industry in both worst and best case scenarios. Compelling cases can be made for both because we know rather little."
Vaccination rates in SA are 34% for 12-50s and 57% for over 50s. In UK figure is 81% heading for high 80s% for 12-100+. Not sure of decent estimates of the proportion of unvaccinated who have some immunity from previous infection in UK or SA. Anyone?


----------



## kingrollo (13 Dec 2021)

Is the significance of the booster that you have 3 jabs ? - or that your last jab was quite recent ?

I'm already 2 months post booster - do I still have the 75% protection ?


----------



## Bike Tyson (13 Dec 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Is the significance of the booster that you have 3 jabs ? - or that your last jab was quite recent ?
> 
> I'm already 2 months post booster - do I still have the 75% protection ?



NHS are offering booster doses 2 months after last vaccine for those most at risk, I think that if the protection was 75% after 2 months this would not be the case.


----------



## Slick (13 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> NHS are offering booster doses 2 months after last vaccine for those most at risk, I think that if the protection was 75% after 2 months this would not be the case.


Yeah but that is for individuals with only 2 jabs. The question remains, is it the timing that is critical or the 3rd jab? 

I think its the 3rd jab that's critical but means nothing what I think.


----------



## Bike Tyson (13 Dec 2021)

Slick said:


> Yeah but that is for individuals with only 2 jabs. The question remains, is it the timing that is critical or the 3rd jab?
> 
> I think its the 3rd jab that's critical but means nothing what I think.



I suppose it will also depend on the individual, protection percentage will be the population average which is irrelevant to any individual .


----------



## Slick (13 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> I suppose it will also depend on the individual, protection percentage will be the population average which is irrelevant to any individual .


Its a good question though. 👍


----------



## kingrollo (13 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> NHS are offering booster doses 2 months after last vaccine for those most at risk, I think that if the protection was 75% after 2 months this would not be the case.



I thought for omnicron the best case scenario was 75% ???????

Which isn't bad as a vaccine - but there's so much about.


----------



## markemark (13 Dec 2021)

Someone I have spoken to senior in a local nhs trust. Expecting a different profile. Much lower icu requirement, much milder symptoms, but a huge influx will be needing to be processed in and out of hospital. Less about critical care but more of being overwhelmed with less serious patients and getting them in and then out.


----------



## Ajax Bay (14 Dec 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I thought for Omicron the best case scenario was 75% ???????
> Which isn't bad as a vaccine - but there's so much about.


FTFY - though maybe there's "so much all over" it should be called 'omnicron'.
The pre-print of a study (LSHTM 11 Dec) used these percentages (image below, just AZ1&2andmRNA for clarity), The only one I think is really pessimistic is the transmission one, where they use 37% protection (other models use 50%: 37% produces more scary (and therefore newsworthy) figures) and halves it for 'waning'.





Table 1. Vaccine efficacy assumptions. 1 = one dose; 2 = two doses; BL = booster dose, low booster
efficacy scenario; BH = booster dose, high booster efficacy scenario; W = waned from vaccine protection


----------



## classic33 (14 Dec 2021)

Fourth dose?
Twelve months after your first one.


----------



## ColinJ (14 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> Fourth dose?
> Twelve months after your first one.


I think we are heading for annual doses as for flu!


----------



## classic33 (14 Dec 2021)

ColinJ said:


> I think we are heading for annual doses as for flu!


Talking to two today who have dates for their fourth jab, not booster, in March.


----------



## ColinJ (14 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> Talking to two today who have dates for their fourth jab, not booster, in March.


My older sister has one coming up - she is immuno-compromised after chemo-therapy.


----------



## classic33 (14 Dec 2021)

ColinJ said:


> My older sister has one coming up - she is immuno-compromised after chemo-therapy.


Hope she'll be okay.


----------



## ColinJ (14 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> Hope she'll be okay.


Hopefully she won't have _THAT _problem to deal with too. Unfortunately, her other health problems are only going to get worse and there is no hope with them.


----------



## Alex321 (14 Dec 2021)

ColinJ said:


> I think we are heading for annual doses as for flu!


It wouldn't surprise me if it were every 6 months for the vulnerable and over 50s.


----------



## classic33 (14 Dec 2021)

ColinJ said:


> Hopefully she won't have _THAT _problem to deal with too. Unfortunately, her other health problems are only going to get worse and there is no hope with them.


Sorry to see that last part. 
A case of foot in mouth here 

I was thinking more of the side effects of the jab.


----------



## ColinJ (14 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> Sorry to see that last part.
> A case of foot in mouth here
> 
> I was thinking more of the side effects of the jab.


No, I know what you meant - no harm done. The last thing she needs is a dose of Covid so that extra booster is a good idea for her.


----------



## PaulSB (14 Dec 2021)

I only discovered this by chance yesterday. The NHS makes a distinction between a third dose and the booster we are all being offered.

I was booking my son's booster yesterday and there was a statement on the lines of "if you are booking your third dose you must bring a GP letter confirming you are clinically vulnerable and qualify for a third dose.'

What the difference is I have no idea but it was a very clear distinction.


----------



## SydZ (14 Dec 2021)

PaulSB said:


> What the difference is I have no idea but it was a very clear distinction.


A third dose is no different to the first or second dose in terms of the volume of vaccine injected.

The booster dose is ~ half the volume of a standard dose and will be an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer of Mederna).


----------



## PaulSB (14 Dec 2021)

SydZ said:


> A third dose is no different to the first or second dose in terms of the volume of vaccine injected.
> 
> The booster dose is ~ half the volume of a standard dose and will be an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer of Mederna).


Thank you.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

Got my negative lateral flow test result for Saturday


----------



## ColinJ (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Got my negative lateral flow test result for Saturday
> 
> View attachment 622391


Blimey - you are a lot younger than you look - beards really age babies!


----------



## MartinQ (16 Dec 2021)

ColinJ said:


> Blimey - you are a lot younger than you look - beards really age babies!



Also a time lord


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

MartinQ said:


> Also a time lord



Yes I was demonstrating how well this present a negative lateral flow test will work if they are relying on a text on your phone.


----------



## mjr (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Yes I was demonstrating how well this present a negative lateral flow test will work if they are relying on a text on your phone.


They shouldn't be. They should be relying on the NHS covid pass. It's still possible to fake (report a negative home test in your account when you've not taken one) but it's more work because you'd have to go get some tests and if you've got them, why not just take one and find out sooner if you're infected and could benefit from one of the new anti-covid pills?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> They shouldn't be. They should be relying on the NHS covid pass. It's still possible to fake (report a negative home test in your account when you've not taken one) but it's more work because you'd have to go get some tests and if you've got them, why not just take one and find out sooner if you're infected and could benefit from one of the new anti-covid pills?



Well no you don’t need to obtain the tests. You just have to log in, enter a suitable code for a test you supposedly did and away you go.


----------



## Bike Tyson (16 Dec 2021)

SydZ said:


> A third dose is no different to the first or second dose in terms of the volume of vaccine injected.
> 
> The booster dose is ~ half the volume of a standard dose and will be an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer of Mederna).



_Pfizer's_ contains 30 micrograms of vaccine, _Moderna_ went with a much larger dose of vaccine, 100 micrograms.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> _Pfizer's_ contains 30 micrograms of vaccine, _Moderna_ went with a much larger dose of vaccine, 100 micrograms.



Whilst AZ had 5 x 10^10 viral particles which is 10 times the number of white blood cells which are normally in circulation in the blood.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

kingrollo said:


> I thought for omnicron the best case scenario was 75% ???????
> 
> Which isn't bad as a vaccine - but there's so much about.



The 75% is at population level recognising that not everyones immune responds the same the vaccines. Unless you do some tests you won’t know how well your immune system is primed from the jabs.


----------



## Bike Tyson (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> The 75% is at population level recognising that not everyones immune responds the same the vaccines. Unless you do some tests you won’t know how well your immune system is primed from the jabs.



I told somebody this yesterday 50% of people will be higher and 50% lower, I also think the ones who need it the most maybe the ones that are lower than the population average.


----------



## Slick (16 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> They shouldn't be. They should be relying on the NHS covid pass. It's still possible to fake (report a negative home test in your account when you've not taken one) but it's more work because you'd have to go get some tests and if you've got them, why not just take one and find out sooner if you're infected and could benefit from one of the new anti-covid pills?





Ming the Merciless said:


> Well no you don’t need to obtain the tests. You just have to log in, enter a suitable code for a test you supposedly did and away you go.


Just out of interest, where do you get a suitable code if you haven't obtained a kit?


----------



## Bike Tyson (16 Dec 2021)

Natural immunity for the win!

View: https://twitter.com/DominiqueTaegon/status/1471451847416324096/photo/1


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

Slick said:


> Just out of interest, where do you get a suitable code if you haven't obtained a kit?



Make it up. Plenty of photos published online that you can make one up.


----------



## Slick (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Make it up. Plenty of photos published online that you can make one up.


They only accept a code once.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

Slick said:


> They only accept a code once.



Yep, then you change the numbers.


----------



## Slick (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Yep, then you change the numbers.


To what though?

I know I'm probably being thick but I'm just not getting how you get to generate a genuine code randomly.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

Slick said:


> To what though?
> 
> I know I'm probably being thick but I'm just not getting how you get to generate a genuine code randomly.



The point is the codes aren’t random and you don’t have to do anything complicated. I think you think there’s more validation than there really is. It really is quite slack.


----------



## DaveReading (16 Dec 2021)

Slick said:


> To what though?
> 
> I know I'm probably being thick but I'm just not getting how you get to generate a genuine code randomly.



+1

In the time you would take to hit on a random number that corresponds to one that the system will accept, you would probably be quicker to order and await delivery of a box of kits.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> +1
> 
> In the time you would take to hit on a random number that corresponds to one that the system will accept, you would probably be quicker to order and await delivery of a box of kits.



It’s not random Dave, nothing that sophisticated


----------



## Slick (16 Dec 2021)

I suppose the reason I ask is, I'm responsible for checking these are carried out at work for both staff and students. I know they can be easily faked if you have the kits, which we give them, but I just don't get why you would. That said, we know some do but in the main, we think it works for us as we are detecting cases almost weekly but as yet nobody has caught it at work. 🤞


----------



## DaveReading (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> It’s not random Dave, nothing that sophisticated



Are you saying that you have successfully submitted a home test result with a fabricated QR code, or are you hypothesising ?


----------



## kingrollo (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> The 75% is at population level recognising that not everyones immune responds the same the vaccines. Unless you do some tests you won’t know how well your immune system is primed from the jabs.



????????
Aren't you just repeating what I have said.

You can't feasibly test your own immune system. The best case scenario widely reported protection V omricon is 75% after 3 jabs.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Are you saying that you have successfully submitted a home test result with a fabricated QR code, or are you hypothesising ?



I have to test out and then cancelled before last step. The last digit is a check digit but other than that easy to fake.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

kingrollo said:


> ????????
> Aren't you just repeating what I have said.
> 
> You can't feasibly test your own immune system. The best case scenario widely reported protection V omricon is 75% after 3 jabs.



No because the 75% isn’t saying you are 75% protected. It’s saying 75% of vaccinated population will be fully protected from hospitalisation. Which is subtly different.


----------



## kingrollo (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> No because the 75% isn’t saying you are 75% protected. It’s saying 75% of population will be fully protected from hospitalisation. Which is subtly different.


Is it ?

News to me. ........and some scientists.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Is it ?
> 
> News to me. ........and some scientists.



I suggest to read the actual paper and the maths.


----------



## DaveReading (16 Dec 2021)

s


Ming the Merciless said:


> I have to test out and then cancelled before last step. The last digit is a check digit but other than that easy to fake.



In other words, a randomly entered code has a 90% chance of being rejected ...

So I stand by my comment that if you want to game the system, it's much easier just to order the kits and then scan the test strip without having bothered to do the test.


----------



## classic33 (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Yep, then you change the numbers.


The codes on the tests aren't in numerical order to prevent any being "used twice". 

I read from the book, my writing, having not entered the current test number in it. Got the answer that it had already been used, had I got the number correct?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> The codes on the tests aren't in numerical order to prevent any being "used twice".
> 
> I read from the book, my writing, having not entered the current test number in it. Got the answer that it had already been used, had I got the number correct?



Maybe not in your pack of 7 but accepted codes are pretty much any three letters and 8 numbers with last one being the check digit.


----------



## kingrollo (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> I suggest to read the actual paper and the maths.


Go on find me the paper where it says 75% of people are fully protected against omricon after 3 jabs ......

Or cut your losses.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Go on find me the paper where it says 75% of people are fully protected against omricon after 3 jabs ......
> 
> Or cut your losses.



The 75% is derived from the numbers vaccinated infected vs. not infected vs. those not vaccinated etc etc. It’s called efficacy. To say someone’s immune system works 75% of the time against Omicron makes no sense. You are saying that 3 out of 4 times your immune system would work then the 4th it wouldn’t. Which is nonsense.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Go on find me the paper where it says 75% of people are fully protected against omricon after 3 jabs ......
> 
> Or cut your losses.



P.S. fully protected against hospitalisation. For an individual it is pretty much a binary thing. Either your immune system does the job or it doesn’t.


----------



## kingrollo (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> The 75% is derived from the numbers vaccinated infected vs. not infected vs. those not vaccinated etc etc. It’s called efficacy. To say someone’s immune system works 75% of the time against Omicron makes no sense. You are saying that 3 out of 4 times your immune system would work then the 4th it wouldn’t. Which is nonsense.



No I asked for the paper where you get the information that 75% of the treble jabbed have 100% protection against omricon .


----------



## classic33 (16 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Are you saying that you have successfully submitted a home test result with a fabricated QR code, or are you hypothesising ?


You use the number, above the, QR code, when you phone the result in.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

kingrollo said:


> No I asked for the paper where you get the information that 75% of the treble jabbed have 100% protection against omricon .



Well it will be the same one you referenced since you are quoting this 75% figure per individual which makes no sense.


----------



## kingrollo (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Well it will be the same one you referenced since you are quoting this 75% figure per individual which makes no sense.


So no paper exists then.

At least weve cleared that up.


----------



## DaveReading (16 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> You use the number, above the, QR code, when you phone the result in.



I'm not sure what your point is. The QR code is just the number is a different form, it doesn't matter which you use.

Or are you suggesting that when you phone in a result rather than submitting it online, the number isn't validated?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

kingrollo said:


> So no paper exists then.
> 
> At least weve cleared that up.



So no paper exists you say. So you are saying the 75% is just a figure made up by papers. If you understood probability you’d understand that the 75% could never refer to the protection an individual is conferred via a booster jab.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (16 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> I'm not sure what your point is. The QR code is just the number is a different form, it doesn't matter which you use.
> 
> Or are you suggesting that when you phone in a result rather than submitting it online, the number isn't validated?



What I am saying is that the number is trivial to make up if you are that way inclined. Less than a minute‘s effort. I’m saying online.


----------



## classic33 (16 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> I'm not sure what your point is. The QR code is just the number is a different form, it doesn't matter which you use.
> 
> Or are you suggesting that when you phone in a result rather than submitting it online, the number isn't validated?


I've phoned all my results through, using the number on the test strip. One refused as it had already been used.*

*Reading from the book, which didn't have the most recent test entered in it.


----------



## DaveReading (16 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> What I am saying is that the number is trivial to make up if you are that way inclined. Less than a minute‘s effort. I’m saying online.



Though not as trivial as just ordering a box of kits with genuine numbers, that won't require you type in an average of 5 different numbers per test in order to find one that's accepted ...


----------



## lazybloke (16 Dec 2021)

And the anger against Chris Whitty is ratcheting up.
Check out the Sky New press review to see Carole Malone frothing with anger about his scientific analysis.


----------



## DCLane (17 Dec 2021)

lazybloke said:


> And the anger against Chris Whitty is ratcheting up.
> Check out the Sky New press review to see Carole Malone frothing with anger about his scientific analysis.



Unqualified media airhead gets 'angry' with an internationally respected medical scientist ... she's no basis of understanding or intellect to do anything but be 'angry'


----------



## markemark (17 Dec 2021)

DCLane said:


> Unqualified media airhead gets 'angry' with an internationally respected medical scientist ... she's no basis of understanding or intellect to do anything but be 'angry'


My young daughter got angry when I told her she couldn’t have haribo for dinner.


----------



## MartinQ (17 Dec 2021)

markemark said:


> My young daughter got angry when I told her she couldn’t have haribo for dinner.



What kind of an evil monster are you?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Though not as trivial as just ordering a box of kits with genuine numbers, that won't require you type in an average of 5 different numbers per test in order to find one that's accepted ...



You don’t need to type 5 in if you know how the check digit is calcd. It’s trivial. But anyway we digress. The point is LFT negative as proof isn’t all that robust at all.


----------



## DaveReading (17 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> You don’t need to type 5 in if you know how the check digit is calcd. It’s trivial. But anyway we digress. The point is LFT negative as proof isn’t all that robust at all.



Well I look forward to your exposition of exactly how it's calculated (presumably similar to the credit card algorithm?).

But in the meantime, yes, we can agree on your last point.


----------



## mjr (17 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> This is the thing, why report " within 28 days after testing positive"
> Just report Covid as the main cause of death [...]


Same reason a car speedometer tells you an estimate based on how fast the wheels are turning, instead of waiting a few seconds for a good GPS lock to make a more accurate calculation.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Dec 2021)




----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Well I look forward to your exposition of exactly how it's calculated (presumably similar to the credit card algorithm?).
> 
> But in the meantime, yes, we can agree on your last point.



Oh I’ll save that for night you can’t sleep 😴


----------



## Bike Tyson (17 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> So no paper exists you say. So you are saying the 75% is just a figure made up by papers. If you understood probability you’d understand that the 75% could never refer to the protection an individual is conferred via a booster jab.



I looked this up today and IF I have got this right the 75% comes from for example if you had 1000 placebo and 1000 with vaccine and 4 placebo got sick or died and 1 in the vaccinated group then that is 75% reduction, so if we had natural immunity in 90% of the population or in 10% of the population it makes no difference to the efficacy of these vaccine, they can offer zero protection to 9 out of 10 people and still be 75% .


----------



## DaveReading (18 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> DaveReading said:
> 
> 
> > Well I look forward to your exposition of exactly how it's calculated (presumably similar to the credit card algorithm?).
> ...



Happily, very few things keep me awake at night, and wondering whether you really do understand the test strip number algorithm isn't one of them. 

But I appreciate your concern, thanks.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (18 Dec 2021)

DaveReading said:


> Happily, very few things keep me awake at night, and wondering whether you really do understand the test strip number algorithm isn't one of them.
> 
> But I appreciate your concern, thanks.



Check digit algorithms really aren’t that complicated. Their purpose is purely to catch mistyped numbers and no more. Given my background yes easy to work out.


----------



## craigwend (18 Dec 2021)

https://www.gov.uk/taking-sick-leave

Extended to 28 days from 7 for Covid, apologies if posted previous


----------



## Slick (18 Dec 2021)

craigwend said:


> https://www.gov.uk/taking-sick-leave
> 
> Extended to 28 days from 7 for Covid, apologies if posted previous


News to me. Seems quite excessive at first glance but I'm sure it makes sense to someone.

Thanks for posting that.


----------



## craigwend (18 Dec 2021)

Slick said:


> News to me. Seems quite excessive at first glance but I'm sure it makes sense to someone.
> 
> Thanks for posting that.


Apparently only to the end of January - best guess to stop GP surgeries being inundated with sick note requests / closed for the Bank Holidays...?


----------



## SpokeyDokey (19 Dec 2021)

I've been very supportive of most Covid measures so far but I think I have now had enough in the light of potential 'further measures' and a possible 'circuit break' that could be taken. Also - cue asorted bleatings for more cash to be pumped into ailing businesses and mention of the costly furlow scheme etc.

This report from the BBC News sums up the problem to me supporting the view that the majority of hospitalised Covid patients are unvaccinated. Anyone got access to more data on this please?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59667190

Sky were also reporting that the bulk of the problem in London was from unvaccinated ethnic communities. Anyone have any hard data on this please?

Just get frigging vaccinated!


----------



## Slick (19 Dec 2021)

Further measures now beyond question, as if it ever was. 

Personally, I think I could deal with a 2 week circuit breaker as long as Mrs Slick gets her Christmas she has planned for her family who all seem to be coming to us this year. 

The problems will start if it goes beyond the 2 weeks, which it inevitably will. Not sure I could do the whole restrictive practices while trying to keep the organisation going that I work for. 

I will of course, as there simply is no alternative.


----------



## lazybloke (19 Dec 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> I've been very supportive of most Covid measures so far but I think I have now had enough in the light of potential 'further measures' and a possible 'circuit break' that could be taken. Also - cue asorted bleatings for more cash to be pumped into ailing businesses and mention of the costly furlow scheme etc.
> 
> This report from the BBC News sums up the problem to me supporting the view that the majority of hospitalised Covid patients are unvaccinated. Anyone got access to more data on this please?
> 
> ...


The stats in your link support the need for vaccination - if I read it correctly, 82% (9 out of 11) covid patients in St George's ICU were unvaccinated. 

But the majority of ICU covid cases will likely be Delta/Plus variants. 
So anger at the unvaccinated might change to alarm that the vaccinated are also vulnerable again; omicron could cause a very dramatic rise in ICU occupancy.

And let's not forget that millions are yet eligible for their 2nd or even their 1st jab, let alone their boosters.
What about the most vulnerable, who had boosters back in September - that protection might be waning already.


You say you _were _supportive of covid measure but have "_had enough_", so are you now unsupportive of current and possibly future measures?
How do you think we should react to the omicron wave?


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Dec 2021)

The lunacy of continuing to put economy and Xmas before human lives is absurd in my humble opinion.


----------



## mjr (19 Dec 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> The lunacy of continuing to put economy and Xmas before human lives is absurd in my humble opinion.


I hope that people will learn that deristricted December means cocked-up Christmas or a long lockdown afterwards, but I also hope we're not in the same situation for a third Christmas in a row!


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> I hope that people will learn that deristricted December means cocked-up Christmas or a long lockdown afterwards, but I also hope we're not in the same situation for a third Christmas in a row!


Pretty sure they won't sadly.


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Dec 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> The lunacy of continuing to put economy and Xmas before human lives is absurd in my humble opinion.


Maybe you're so old hippy that your parents are no longer with you/us. For many it is not lunacy but a balanced risk to meet with family and close friends at Christmas: this might be my mother's last Christmas (and of course it might not be). I'll take care not to be the one who she catches it from (and her grandchildren are sensible and prudent too). Human lives are about social interaction: those lives must come first.
Or maybe that's what you're arguing. 159 lives were lost in UK last year swimming in the sea and rivers: should we prohibit that?
I agree that worrying about the night entertainment industry and the coffee/sandwich bars of London are pretty low on the vast majority of people's set of priorities.
I also wonder about the anomaly where spectators to football matches have to show covid status whereas the Premier League (footie) report that about 25% of players are refusing to get vaccinated: lunacy.


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> I also hope we're not in the same situation for a third Christmas in a row!


Are you looking forward to Christmas 2022, @mjr ? That's forward thinking, that is, albeit rather 'we're doomed-laden'! Do you really think there's a chance of that?


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Dec 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Maybe you're so old hippy that your parents are no longer with you/us. For many it is not lunacy but a balanced risk to meet with family and close friends at Christmas: this might be my mother's last Christmas (and of course it might not be). I'll take care not to be the one who she catches it from (and her grandchildren are sensible and prudent too). Human lives are about social interaction: those lives must come first.
> Or maybe that's what you're arguing. 159 lives were lost in UK last year swimming in the sea and rivers: should we prohibit that?
> I agree that worrying about the night entertainment industry and the coffee/sandwich bars of London are pretty low on the vast majority of people's set of priorities.
> I also wonder about the anomaly where spectators to football matches have to show covid status whereas the Premier League (footie) report that about 25% of players are refusing to get vaccinated: lunacy.


I agree with you on a lot but it is a virus it sadly has to be all or nothing in my opinion.


----------



## mjr (19 Dec 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Are you looking forward to Christmas 2022, @mjr ? That's forward thinking, that is, albeit rather 'we're doomed-laden'! Do you really think there's a chance of that?


Looking forward in the sense of contemplating it. Surely there's a chance that a new variant arises next autumn, followed by dither, delay and another panic vaccination round? Why wouldn't there be? Far from being "we're doomed", I hope it's not a big chance!


----------



## ColinJ (19 Dec 2021)

Obviously, the data isn't in yet, and unfortunately people _ARE _dying from Omicron, but it might turn out to be a blessing in disguise. It is so infectious that we must surely end up with herd immunity eventually, either by infection or by vaccination? If that can be achieved with much smaller losses than with earlier variants then Omicron displacing Delta might overall be a good thing?

Fingers crossed...


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Dec 2021)

Would prefer to style this as an 'accelerated' (as opposed to 'panic') booster programme, in light of a new variant with higher transmission ability. But the idea of a Sunday evening PM statement without planning ahead for the inevitable surge of demand was ill-founded (polite) - hopefully this is not too radical a thought to be modded to oblivion.


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Dec 2021)

ColinJ said:


> the data isn't in yet, and unfortunately people _ARE _dying from Omicron,


Less than were dying from Delta (per CFR) but as you say, the data are insufficient (time from symptomatic infection to death lag) to get a proper estimate. The real challenge is going to be severely reduced not infected/cohabiting infected person NHS staff to man/woman the wards for the normal (let alone abnormal) winter peak of hospital need. Any reporting on levels of winter flu or is that going to be as low as Jan 2021?


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> I hope that people will learn that deristricted December means cocked-up Christmas or a long lockdown afterwards, but I also hope we're not in the same situation for a third Christmas in a row!



I think you’ll find Christmas 2019 was a perfectly normal affair in the UK.


----------



## mjr (19 Dec 2021)

ColinJ said:


> It is so infectious that we must surely end up with herd immunity eventually, either by infection or by vaccination?


The herd immunity possibility was killed off by a combination of Delta and none of the vaccines cutting transmission enough. The most likely route out of the pandemic is now endemicity. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2?code=fdaafcbb-2cc1-44b9-ae0d-55073db3b47a


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Dec 2021)

Being a virus it will mutate again. That's what they do.


----------



## Oldhippy (19 Dec 2021)

SydZ said:


> Whilst further measures are certain to be introduced I suspect the level of compliance with them will be at an all time low.
> 
> I’ve spoken to many people about it over the last week and, without fail, their response has been they would not comply in full, and in some cases, at all.


There in lies the problem, huge numbers will consider they've had it hard enough or 'suffered' long enough and will just make sure things are in place for the next spread by ignoring common sense.


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Dec 2021)

ColinJ said:


> It is so infectious that we must surely end up with herd immunity eventually, either by infection or by vaccination?





mjr said:


> The most likely route out of the pandemic is now endemicity.


We'll only get to community immunity if the protection offered by pre-infection or vaccination (number of doses and frequency tbc) is very high and can outmatch the reproduction capability of whichever variant is dominant. This seems unlikely to happen any time soon. And a variant which is less transmissible than Omicron will not become dominant: the bar has been set high. So we'll have to settle with endemic; like flu. One has no option but to hope that the virulence of the dominant variant reduces to become less able to cause severe illness, and hopefully (again) less long term health issues.


----------



## Bike Tyson (19 Dec 2021)

ColinJ said:


> Obviously, the data isn't in yet, and unfortunately people _ARE _dying from Omicron, but it might turn out to be a blessing in disguise. It is so infectious that we must surely end up with herd immunity eventually, either by infection or by vaccination? If that can be achieved with much smaller losses than with earlier variants then Omicron displacing Delta might overall be a good thing?
> 
> Fingers crossed...



I don't think herd immunity is a possibility, over 95% of adults have the antibodies right now either through vaccine or infection.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> I don't think herd immunity is a possibility, over 95% of adults have the antibodies right now either through vaccine or infection.



Where did you get that figure from?


----------



## Bike Tyson (19 Dec 2021)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Where did you get that figure from?


This from 2 weeks ago, the last one I saw said 98.5% estimate for all UK adults so 95% is a conservative estimate.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...s/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies


----------



## cougie uk (19 Dec 2021)

Oldhippy said:


> Being a virus it will mutate again. That's what they do.


More chance of the mutation with more infections. 
Vaccines should reduce this.


----------



## pawl (20 Dec 2021)

Just heard fifteen people we know including two children hs e been diagnosed with covid.Up to this moment in time throughout the Covid outbreak I have only known of two Things are getting decidedly dodgy Whatever Boris decides Xmas decision has been made we It will just be the two of us over xmas


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## roadrash (20 Dec 2021)

@pawl I sincerely hope they are all soon well with no lasting effects


----------



## PK99 (20 Dec 2021)

*Important information about new treatments for coronavirus (COVID-19)*

Just received an official NHS email with above heading

Because I fall into a particularly vulnerable set of conditions

I'm going to be sent a home PCR kit
If I get symptoms I use the kit.
If positive I will be contacted to arrange treatment.

email does not state, but I guess this refers to the new Antivirals


----------



## ColinJ (20 Dec 2021)

PK99 said:


> *Important information about new treatments for coronavirus (COVID-19)*
> 
> Just received an official NHS email with above heading
> 
> ...


I heard something like that on the news yesterday. They said that those antivirals can dramatically reduce the risk of a patient ending up in hospital if taken soon enough.


----------



## midlife (20 Dec 2021)

Probably this one you read about.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59721240


----------



## pawl (20 Dec 2021)

roadrash said:


> @pawl I sincerely hope they are all soon well with no lasting effects




That’s kind Thank you


----------



## mjr (21 Dec 2021)

Can anyone explain to me how ignoring medical advice and putting yourself, friends and family at greater risk of sickness and death is a good way to protest against government ministers ignoring medical advice and laws they passed and putting themselves, their families and friends at increased risk?

I don't get it. It seems like following iSAGE and calling for government lockdown-busters to be punished makes more sense. https://www.independentsage.org/emergency-statement-on-omicron-15-december-2021/ https://goodlawproject.org/news/new-met-police-likely-unlawful/


----------



## fossyant (21 Dec 2021)

I think China is suffering from Omicron infections, not they are telling anyone. My wife's company is struggling contacting suppliers in China as they seem to have alot of staff off with covid.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (21 Dec 2021)

What's occurring with all the hype we are getting?

UK hospital beds occupied seems steady at around 7.5k whick is over 2k down from the start of November.

Deaths have been stuck at <150 for ages and this week we have had several <100 deaths reported.

^ ONS data. 

Those in hospital account for 70-90% of patients according to source.

The unvaccinated are the big problem imo although the current situation seems massively over-egged (deliberately?)


----------



## fossyant (21 Dec 2021)

It's being over-egged - yes infections are up, but deaths/hospitalisations aren't any worse.


----------



## mjr (21 Dec 2021)

It is difficult to be confident in the relative egging either way yet until the mass surge in omicron infections develop into hospitalisations 2-3 weeks later. Or not. But if they do in great number, it may yet show to have been underegged.

Give it a week or two.


----------



## MrGrumpy (21 Dec 2021)

The other issue is that a rise of infection may lead to problems in the workplace and business being able to function due to people of ill and or isolating?


----------



## Bike Tyson (21 Dec 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> The unvaccinated are the big problem imo although the current situation seems massively over-egged (deliberately?)



I don't think that is true, unvaccinated under 50 which is the majority of unvaxed people accounts for a very small proportion of deaths








.


----------



## markemark (21 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> I don't think that is true, unvaccinated under 50 which is the majority of unvaxed people accounts for a very small proportion of deaths
> View attachment 623105
> 
> 
> ...


From your table Under 50s. Total deaths = 156. Unvaccinated deaths = 89. That is 57% of deaths of under 50s are unvaccinated. As they make up roughly 10% of the population, that means they are taking up way more deaths than they should do. There are 9 times as many vaccinated as unvaccinated meaning the unvaccinated are approx 12 times more likely to die. Let along the amount of NHS care they are being given.


----------



## PK99 (21 Dec 2021)

PK99 said:


> *Important information about new treatments for coronavirus (COVID-19)*
> 
> Just received an official NHS email with above heading
> 
> ...




And today received a Bar-coded, personal use only, priority self-test PCR kit and instructions for priority posting or courier service to submit after testing.

The system is working - for me and a friend in a similar priority category


----------



## Bike Tyson (21 Dec 2021)

markemark said:


> From your table Under 50s. Total deaths = 156. Unvaccinated deaths = 89. That is 57% of deaths of under 50s are unvaccinated. As they make up roughly 10% of the population, that means they are taking up way more deaths than they should do. There are 9 times as many vaccinated as unvaccinated meaning the unvaccinated are approx 12 times more likely to die. Let along the amount of NHS care they are being given.



Unvaccinated Under 50s accounts for 3% of all deaths in that table, if they make up 10% of population then they are under represented.


----------



## vickster (21 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> Unvaccinated Under 50s accounts for 3% of all deaths in that table, if they make up 10% of population then they are under represented.


What about the percent of hospitalisation and ICU beds? Deaths are just one part of the picture when strain on health services is a major concern. Is that data in another page of your report? Be interesting to see


----------



## Bike Tyson (21 Dec 2021)

vickster said:


> What about the percent of hospitalisation and ICU beds? Deaths are just one part of the picture when strain on health services is a major concern. Is that data in another page of your report? Be interesting to see



For some reason this is reported by rates per 100,000 so no idea what the totals for vaccinated or unvaccinated are but would imagine they are similiar to the deaths in percentage.


----------



## Alex321 (21 Dec 2021)

markemark said:


> From your table Under 50s. Total deaths = 156. Unvaccinated deaths = 89. That is 57% of deaths of under 50s are unvaccinated. *As they make up roughly 10% of the population, that means they are taking up way more deaths than they should do. * There are 9 times as many vaccinated as unvaccinated meaning the unvaccinated are approx 12 times more likely to die. Let along the amount of NHS care they are being given.



That is not a valid figure.

Total deaths of under 50's = 156, out of 3571 across the whole population. Which is about 4.3% of deaths. So unvaccinated under 50's account for around 2.5% of total deaths, while being (as you say) roughly 10% of the population as a whole. Way fewer deaths than their proportion, not more as you suggest.


----------



## Illaveago (21 Dec 2021)

PK99 said:


> *Important information about new treatments for coronavirus (COVID-19)*
> 
> Just received an official NHS email with above heading
> 
> ...


My daughter has received the same thing.


----------



## vickster (21 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> For some reason this is reported by rates per 100,000 so no idea what the totals for vaccinated or unvaccinated are but would imagine they are similiar to the deaths in percentage.


why do you think that? Old people are more likely to die if they get really sick, possibly even more likely to have a DNR and allowed to die, I would think younger people are more likely to get sick and survive, but potentially only after a long costly stay in hospital and then with post illness complications to deal with.


----------



## mjr (21 Dec 2021)

MrGrumpy said:


> The other issue is that a rise of infection may lead to problems in the workplace and business being able to function due to people of ill and or isolating?


I think we can be reasonably confident from past changes that isolation will be cut if that becomes a big problem, even to the point that the isolation no longer reduces spread. TV today was reporting that the health minister wants it cut to 7 days max.


----------



## Bike Tyson (21 Dec 2021)

vickster said:


> why do you think that? Old people are more likely to die if they get really sick, possibly even more likely to have a DNR and allowed to die, I would think younger people are more likely to get sick and survive, but potentially only after a long costly stay in hospital and then with post illness complications to deal with



Found this graph, not sure if it shines any light on numbers any better but best I could find, not sure if it backs up your theory or not.


----------



## DaveReading (21 Dec 2021)

fossyant said:


> It's being over-egged - yes infections are up, but deaths/hospitalisations aren't any worse.



Hospitalisations are in fact starting to increase.

Since deaths, when they occur, typically happen several weeks after hospital admission, it's not surprising that they haven't increased significantly - yet.


----------



## mjr (21 Dec 2021)

North Somerset Council are now distributing boxes of 20 lateral flow tests, instead of 7. I think they're still the nose-only ones, but I am not 100% sure of that.


----------



## Ajax Bay (21 Dec 2021)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Of patients who have tested positive for COVID-19 in hospital, those unvaccinated account for 70-90% according to source.


FTFY, I think. Please correct if not.


----------



## Bike Tyson (21 Dec 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> FTFY, I think. Please correct if not.



Thats false information, 70-90% is percent of people in hospital with Covid I think.


----------



## Bike Tyson (21 Dec 2021)

@vickster found this.


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## vickster (21 Dec 2021)

One overnight admission probably doesn’t show the full impact on the NHS


----------



## kingrollo (21 Dec 2021)

Since Jan 2020 when we have pondered which way this will go - how many times has it turned out to not be as bad as we thought !


----------



## mjr (21 Dec 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Since Jan 2020 when we have pondered which way this will go - how many times has it turned out to not be as bad as we thought !


Slightly fewer than those where it turned out worse.


----------



## MartinQ (21 Dec 2021)

Tbh, David Spiegelhalter's interview on C4 last night pretty much sums it up for me (not surprisingly). There is a large uncertainty in what will happen, but its very infectious. His face at the end where he knows the interviewer is getting a bit frustrated with the lack of clear answers is a treat, but thats pretty much the reality of things.
https://www.channel4.com/news/unvac...this-winter-says-prof-sir-david-spiegelhalter


----------



## Bike Tyson (21 Dec 2021)

vickster said:


> One overnight admission probably doesn’t show the full impact on the NHS



I know, not very helpful but best I could find.


----------



## Illaveago (21 Dec 2021)

Our local news programme for the South West tonight said that a laboratory in Wolverhampton which was given £120 million for a government contract to do the PCR tests got the tests wrong from when they started in September resulting in 43,000 wrong tests . People who had tested positive on the lateral flow test started querying the negative test from the laboratory. It seems as though the laboratory was allowed to continue for a month although the authorities knew of the anomalies.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (21 Dec 2021)

Illaveago said:


> Our local news programme for the South West tonight said that a laboratory in Wolverhampton which was given £120 million for a government contract to do the PCR tests got the tests wrong from when they started in September resulting in 43,000 wrong tests . People who had tested positive on the lateral flow test started querying the negative test from the laboratory. It seems as though the laboratory was allowed to continue for a month although the authorities knew of the anomalies.


Yep, Immensa. GoodLawProject have filed for a Judicial Review. https://goodlawproject.org/news/immensa-update/


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## Illaveago (21 Dec 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Yep, Immensa. GoodLawProject have filed for a Judicial Review. https://goodlawproject.org/news/immensa-update/


The cases of COVID here sky rocketed due to their mistakes .


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## deptfordmarmoset (21 Dec 2021)

Illaveago said:


> The cases of COVID here sky rocketed due to their mistakes .


It appears that the South West was the biggest feeder of tests into Immensa, Wales less so, but unnecessary infections and deaths for the two. And for people doing the right thing.


----------



## cougie uk (21 Dec 2021)

kingrollo said:


> Since Jan 2020 when we have pondered which way this will go - how many times has it turned out to not be as bad as we thought !



You have to plan for the worst. If we overloaded the NHS then we would be getting deaths not just from Covid but normally preventable illness and injury. 

And remember when deaths under 20k was said to be a good result ? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-idUSKBN21F0HV

Now we are on 147k.


----------



## Ajax Bay (21 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> That's false information, 70-90% is percent of people in hospital with Covid I think.


I'm afraid I don't understand whether you mean this or not.
In UK (20 Dec) there are 7801 people who have tested positive with COVID-19 in the last 28 days in hospital.
The total number of beds in England's hospitals is 141k (includes general and acute, mental illness, learning disability, maternity and day-only) and about another 21k in the other home nations = 162k. Reduce this by 15% to allow for beds in the non-general and acute categories, gets one to 138k.
So the percentage of beds in UK hospitals occupied by "Covid" patients is currently <6%.
The table you/ @vickster shared above is best viewed through the lens of the doubly vaccinated percentage of those age cohorts (above 60 is high 90s). Then look at the proportions of unvaccinated which increase as age cohort decreases. A fair proportion of the vaccinated over 70s (and especially the over 80s) will be in hospital with not because of Covid.


----------



## Alex321 (21 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> Can anyone explain to me how ignoring medical advice and putting yourself, friends and family at greater risk of sickness and death is a good way to protest against government ministers ignoring medical advice and laws they passed and putting themselves, their families and friends at increased risk?



Nope.

But the people wanting to do those things aren't thinking rationally. They are thinking "If it's Ok for Mps, then it must be Ok for us".


----------



## Bike Tyson (22 Dec 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I'm afraid I don't understand whether you mean this or not.
> In UK (20 Dec) there are 7801 people who have tested positive with COVID-19 in the last 28 days in hospital.
> The total number of beds in England's hospitals is 141k (includes general and acute, mental illness, learning disability, maternity and day-only) and about another 21k in the other home nations = 162k. Reduce this by 15% to allow for beds in the non-general and acute categories, gets one to 138k.
> So the percentage of beds in UK hospitals occupied by "Covid" patients is currently <6%.
> The table you/ @vickster shared above is best viewed through the lens of the doubly vaccinated percentage of those age cohorts (above 60 is high 90s). Then look at the proportions of unvaccinated which increase as age cohort decreases. A fair proportion of the vaccinated over 70s (and especially the over 80s) will be in hospital with not because of Covid.



Who is in hospital with Covid or because of Covid is anybodies guess, I would imagine a lot are catching it in the hospitals when there for something else, probably more oldies with as opposed to because of covid but who knows, my point all along is the vaccines are not reducing transmission as much as was being touted especially in older people.


----------



## classic33 (22 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> Who is in hospital with Covid or because of Covid is anybodies guess, I would imagine a lot are catching it in the hospitals when there for something else, probably more oldies with as opposed to because of covid but who knows, my point all along is the vaccines are not reducing transmission as much as was being touted especially in older people.


Maybe it's because they feel that now they've had their 2(or 3 jabs), they can just dismiss the precautions they were taking this time last year. There's certainly more older folk out than this time last year.
Maybe their age counts against them with the vaccinations. 

Who can say what the real reason is?

Maybe we should get rid of the aluminum door handles we now see in hospitals. The older brass handles had a certain amount of "killing power" with regards infections.


----------



## Illaveago (22 Dec 2021)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It appears that the South West was the biggest feeder of tests into Immensa, Wales less so, but unnecessary infections and deaths for the two. And for people doing the right thing.


We were used as guinea pigs to test the laboratory !


----------



## mjr (22 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> I think we can be reasonably confident from past changes that isolation will be cut if that becomes a big problem, even to the point that the isolation no longer reduces spread. TV today was reporting that the health minister wants it cut to 7 days max.


As predicted, just the "max" missing: Covid: Self-isolation cut from 10 days to seven with negative test - BBC News – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59749447


----------



## classic33 (22 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> As predicted, just the "max" missing: Covid: Self-isolation cut from 10 days to seven with negative test - BBC News – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59749447


Two negative tests, on days six and seven.


----------



## Ajax Bay (22 Dec 2021)

It's been said that London's the canary not in the (decision-making conference) room/garden.
Here's Wednesday's summary:

People tested positive for COVID-19 in London was *20,491 *[Comment: 22% of the whole UK cases]
Daily average per 100,000 rate of *1456* (about 200% up on previous week)
In England same rate was (average) 803/100,000
[Vaccination status - worse than mostly everywhere in UK]
*1,904* COVID-19 patients in London hospitals cf 1,349 on 14 Dec [Comment: 24% of the whole UK hospital COVID-19-occupied beds.]
*201* COVID-19 patients in mechanical ventilation beds in London hospitals cf 194 patients on 14 Dec [Comment: flat, then, but time lag for case rate rise not yet kicked in]
In the week ending* 19 Dec *there were *97* deaths in London hospitals of patients who had tested positive for COVID-19 and an additional *9* where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, cf 84 and 6 for the previous week.


----------



## midlife (22 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> As predicted, just the "max" missing: Covid: Self-isolation cut from 10 days to seven with negative test - BBC News – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59749447



The BBC article includes this..

_And anyone ending isolation on day seven is strongly advised to limit contact with vulnerable people, not visit crowded or poorly ventilated spaces, and work from home. _

That would stop me from going back to work...


----------



## vickster (22 Dec 2021)

midlife said:


> The BBC article includes this..
> 
> _And anyone ending isolation on day seven is strongly advised to limit contact with vulnerable people, not visit crowded or poorly ventilated spaces, and work from home. _
> 
> That would stop me from going back to work...


presumably the NHS (and private healthcare sector establishments) will have their own (stricter) rules for return to work?


----------



## mjr (22 Dec 2021)

midlife said:


> The BBC article includes this..
> 
> _And anyone ending isolation on day seven is strongly advised to limit contact with vulnerable people, not visit crowded or poorly ventilated spaces, and work from home. _
> 
> That would stop me from going back to work...


But it's only advice so don't go expecting sick pay if you use it as an excuse to keep skiving and selfishly protecting the vulnerable(!)


----------



## Bazzer (22 Dec 2021)

Funeral today of a work colleague, (not on the team where I work), who died in hospital couple of weeks ago. According to the email which was issued announcing his death, the cause of death diagnosed as COVID.
No information about vaccination status.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Dec 2021)

I got a newsfeed from the (London) Evening Standard today. It said that approximately 4 million people will leave the epicentre of the omicron surge to spend time with their families over Christmas. On the train on the way back from the hospital where my mother was admitted for a heart attack 2 days ago, and who I can't see because of covid protocols, proper mask wearing was down to around 50%. What could possibly go wrong?


----------



## mjr (22 Dec 2021)

New peak of cases reported of 106'000. Professor Spiegelhalter points out the 100'000 cases/day found was actually reached on the 15th and cases found are no longer rising as fast as expected but case numbers are unreliable anyway.


----------



## PK99 (22 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> I would imagine a lot are catching it in the hospitals



I know of 2 cycling colleagues who died "of" covid, 

One very early in the pandemic, no idea how he caught it, or of any underlying issues

The other, in hospital for one of his many other ailments - caught Covid while in hospital and died.


----------



## Bike Tyson (22 Dec 2021)

PK99 said:


> I know of 2 cycling colleagues who died "of" covid, or of any underlying issues
> 
> One very early in the pandemic, no idea how he caught it
> 
> The other, in hospital for one of his many other ailments - caught Covid while in hospital and died.



Nothing you can do if you need to be hospitalised , chances are you are going to be exposed to the virus.


----------



## midlife (22 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> New peak of cases reported of 106'000. Professor Spiegelhalter points out the 100'000 cases/day found was actually reached on the 15th and cases found are no longer rising as fast as expected but case numbers are unreliable anyway.



I was listening to him on the way home, was also saying that a study of 22000 in Scotland suggests omicron puts 2/3rd less people in hospital than delta. Mind you at the current rate of infection that's still a lot of people who may require hospital treatment.


----------



## deptfordmarmoset (22 Dec 2021)

midlife said:


> I was listening to him on the way home, was also saying that a study of 22000 in Scotland suggests omicron puts 2/3rd less people in hospital than delta. Mind you at the current rate of infection that's still a lot of people who may require hospital treatment.


Current sick absence rates in the NHS are at 10% (over 13% in London). We could end up with as many as never before needing hospital treatment and ever fewer medics to care for them when it bites.


----------



## mjr (22 Dec 2021)

midlife said:


> I was listening to him on the way home, was also saying that a study of 22000 in Scotland suggests omicron puts 2/3rd less people in hospital than delta. Mind you at the current rate of infection that's still a lot of people who may require hospital treatment.


itv news reporting that omicron is only 10% less severe than delta and 50% more contagious, which I think is from the same study.

That report doesn't seem to be online yet, so maybe I misheard or they'll correct it, but this explanation of why England may still see more restrictions even if Omicron is slightly milder: Covid: Why England could face post-Christmas restrictions even if data shows Omicron is milder | ITV News – https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-22...istmas-restrictions-even-if-omicron-is-milder

Edit: report now online with fewer numbers, based on a different study of patients in England at Covid: Risk of hospitalisation with Omicron appears to be lower compared with Delta, study suggests | ITV News – https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-22...icron-appears-to-be-lower-compared-with-delta


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## midlife (22 Dec 2021)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758784

The radio 4 program alluded to the Scottish study that expected 47 hospital admissions but only 15 were recorded. I guess that's were Prof Spiegelhalter picked the percentage from


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## mjr (22 Dec 2021)

Bike Tyson said:


> Nothing you can do if you need to be hospitalised , chances are you are going to be exposed to the virus.


1. Is that true? There still seem to be long lists of what you have to do if being hospitalised as planned (for a scheduled operation, for example), including 7 or 14 day isolation and testing.

2. Was it inevitable? Was there a level of hospitalisations where it became the case?


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## Slick (22 Dec 2021)

midlife said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758784
> 
> The radio 4 program alluded to the Scottish study that expected 47 hospital admissions but only 15 were recorded. I guess that's were Prof Spiegelhalter picked the percentage from


I think it was quite a small control group so they are still pretty tentative about any claims.


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## classic33 (22 Dec 2021)

mjr said:


> 1. Is that true? *There still seem to be long lists of what you have to do if being hospitalised as planned (for a scheduled operatio, for example),* including 7 or 14 day isolation and testing.
> 
> 2. Was it inevitable? Was there a level of hospitalisations where it became the case?


Most hospitals dropped routine operations earlier this month, around the same time as routine appointments.


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## Ajax Bay (24 Dec 2021)

I have been keeping an eye out for work on looking at the extent to which the SPI-M modelling (LSHTM, Warwick and Imperial) was borne out in reality.
Edit to add: The 13 October Warwick modelling discusses this and they learned from how things weren't as bad (hospitalisations and deaths) and included changes to their assumptions (in the 13 Oct model/results obviously OBE'd now by the advent of Omicron.
The Covid-19 Actuaries Group have been tracking hospital admissions compared with a June model - this update is from November. You can see that the predicted peaks, with the exception of the Warwick “green” version have not materialised (note it doesn’t show Imperial’s 'max fear' curve, as it is off the scale). However, the hospitalisation rate has persisted at a much more sustained level than estimated. Of course since this plotting, the Omicron variant has changed the likely outcome shape.


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## cougie uk (24 Dec 2021)

classic33 said:


> Maybe we should get rid of the aluminum door handles we now see in hospitals. The older brass handles had a certain amount of "killing power" with regards infections.



Our local hospital has put brass or copper piping handles on the doors for the stairs. Presumably it's anti Covid.


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## flake99please (24 Dec 2021)

Had my booster earlier today. I might just be feigning a bit of illness tomorrow. Just enough to get me out of cooking the dinner.


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## All uphill (24 Dec 2021)

flake99please said:


> Had my booster earlier today. I might just be feigning a bit of illness tomorrow. Just enough to get me out of cooking the dinner.


Ah, if you're not well you won't be wanting anything to eat and drink.


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## midlife (24 Dec 2021)

cougie uk said:


> Our local hospital has put brass or copper piping handles on the doors for the stairs. Presumably it's anti Covid.



Way back at the start, our hospital had a stab at swabbing for COVID on all sorts of surfaces (fomites) and didn't come across a lot. Maybe it was all the alcohol gel being used on hands?


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## Ajax Bay (24 Dec 2021)

I thought transmission by fomites had been widely discounted as negligible. No doubt there is still uncertainty, hence the expenditure on cleaning etc. Now if only that effort had gone into ventilation (including tubes and buses). Ventilation still an issue in indoor public spaces, including pubs and the like.


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## cougie uk (24 Dec 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I thought transmission by fomites had been widely discounted as negligible. No doubt there is still uncertainty, hence the expenditure on cleaning etc. Now if only that effort had gone into ventilation (including tubes and buses). Still an issue in indoor public spaces, including pubs and the like.


I think you're right. It's taken us ages to realise it's ventilation that's needed and the message still hasn't gotten through everywhere.


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## PK99 (24 Dec 2021)

midlife said:


> Way back at the start, our hospital had a stab at swabbing for COVID on all sorts of surfaces (fomites) and didn't come across a lot. Maybe it was all the alcohol gel being used on hands?



My reading is that fomite transmission was postulated at the start of the pandemic but fairly rapidly downgraded as a potential route.


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## midlife (24 Dec 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I thought transmission by fomites had been widely discounted as negligible. No doubt there is still uncertainty, hence the expenditure on cleaning etc. Now if only that effort had gone into ventilation (including tubes and buses). Ventilation still an issue in indoor public spaces, including pubs and the like.



Yep, at work our aircon fans are at max and still get maxed up on PPE when generating saliva aerosols.


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## Rusty Nails (24 Dec 2021)

All uphill said:


> Ah, if you're not well you won't be wanting anything to eat and drink.


Feed a cold, starve a fever.

Or is that the wrong way round?


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## Bazzer (25 Dec 2021)

My sister tested positive yesterday. Always masks and regular hand cleaner, a habit developed when our Mum was living with her up to the beginning of this month. Triple jabbed so she should be OK.
No idea where she picked it up from. Could have been the Tescos or the gym.


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## DCLane (25 Dec 2021)

SWMBO's been contacted via test and trace - she went to visit someone on Monday. As she's NHS staff she's off to get a PCR test and we'll hope it's negative, otherwise our Christmas plans are messed up.

She does lateral flow tests for her job almost daily, negative so far. Given she's worked with Ebola, Sars and other similar nasties in her patient-facing job role over the past 30 years I'm guessing she's immune to almost anything.


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## PaulSB (25 Dec 2021)

Bazzer said:


> My sister tested positive yesterday. Always masks and regular hand cleaner, a habit developed when our Mum was living with her up to the beginning of this month. Triple jabbed so she should be OK.
> No idea where she picked it up from. Could have been the Tescos or *the gym*.


I went to the gym on Monday for the first time since March 2019. I was positive on Wednesday with LFT and PCR tests. There were only 6 people on the spin class which has room for 24.

Family Christmas cancelled for today. Replanned for Tuesday. I now think I was stupid to go and gyms are probably one of the most dangerous places one can visit. Membership cancelled.


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## Slick (25 Dec 2021)

PaulSB said:


> I went to the gym on Monday for the first time since March 2019. I was positive on Wednesday with LFT and PCR tests. There were only 6 people on the spin class which has room for 24.
> 
> Family Christmas cancelled for today. Replanned for Tuesday. I now think I was stupid to go and gyms are probably one of the most dangerous places one can visit. Membership cancelled.


Pure speculation on my part but 2 days is quite early for an LFT to pick it up in my obviously limited experience. We do around 130 tests twice a week and pick up some positive cases almost weekly and have done for months now. It seems to me that the LFT needs more like 4 days from suspected infection to returning a positive result. You may well have picked it up in the gym, but you may well have picked it up some other way prior to attending the gym.


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## PaulSB (25 Dec 2021)

Slick said:


> Pure speculation on my part but 2 days is quite early for an LFT to pick it up in my obviously limited experience. We do around 130 tests twice a week and pick up some positive cases almost weekly and have done for months now. It seems to me that the LFT needs more like 4 days from suspected infection to returning a positive result. You may well have picked it up in the gym, but you may well have picked it up some other way prior to attending the gym.


Thank you that's interesting and I didn't know this. I've since down a bit of reading on the WHO website and it seems infection to symptoms is 5/6 days on average and up to 14 days.

It does explain to me why the NHS T&T seemed more interested in my contacts December 14th to 18th than the 19th onwards.

I'm glad you posted as it's made me feel better. I have been feeling cancelled Christmas is my fault for being stupid enough to visit a gym. It sounds more likely I was just unlucky somewhere because I've been taking every precaution I can.


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## Slick (25 Dec 2021)

PaulSB said:


> Thank you that's interesting and I didn't know this. I've since down a bit of reading on the WHO website and it seems infection to symptoms is 5/6 days on average and up to 14 days.
> 
> It does explain to me why the NHS T&T seemed more interested in my contacts December 14th to 18th than the 19th onwards.
> 
> I'm glad you posted as it's made me feel better. I have been feeling cancelled Christmas is my fault for being stupid enough to visit a gym. It sounds more likely I was just unlucky somewhere because I've been taking every precaution I can.


Good I'm glad, picking up an infection isn't anyone's fault, especially now.

The Track and Trace thing is always an interesting conversation and a much better indicator to how long you have possibly had any infection as well as how long you could have been passing it on. 

Hope you get over this quickly and enjoy a belated celebration with everyone later. 👍


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## fossyant (25 Dec 2021)

Cancelling all pre-christmas plans have worked. All the family tested negative this morning, so Chritmas can go ahead. Friend's daughter caught it, triple jabbed. Air hostess so thinks she's picked it up in flight. She's been very ill with it, and has had anti-biotics to help clear her chest up.


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## KnittyNorah (25 Dec 2021)

Slick said:


> Pure speculation on my part but 2 days is quite early for an LFT to pick it up in my obviously limited experience. We do around 130 tests twice a week and pick up some positive cases almost weekly and have done for months now. It seems to me that the LFT needs more like 4 days from suspected infection to returning a positive result. You may well have picked it up in the gym, but you may well have picked it up some other way prior to attending the gym.



I think it's changing a bit with omicron - probably too soon to be certain, but from what I'm reading, the entire process seems to be somewhat compressed in time, compared to original and delta - ie testing +ve (and therefore being infectious oneself) sooner after initial infection and remaining +ve (and thus infectious) for a shorter time ...
So there's that puzzle to add to the 'where/when did I pick it up? question. 
At this point I don't think it's worth concerning oneself about where or when it was picked up and certainly there's no point in guilt feelings of _any _sort as we are _all _(unless we live in a literal, physical bubble of some sort) going to be exposed to O and have no say over whether or not we will have a symptomatic infection ... All we can do is stay aware and careful and try to minimise the viral load in the environment ( eg ventilation, masks, hygiene) for the (possible/probable) benefit of the more-vulnerable among us.


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## Slick (25 Dec 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> I think it's changing a bit with omicron - probably too soon to be certain, but from what I'm reading, the entire process seems to be somewhat compressed in time, compared to original and delta - ie testing +ve (and therefore being infectious oneself) sooner after initial infection and remaining +ve (and thus infectious) for a shorter time ...
> So there's that puzzle to add to the 'where/when did I pick it up? question.
> At this point I don't think it's worth concerning oneself about where or when it was picked up and certainly there's no point in guilt feelings of _any _sort as we are _all _(unless we live in a literal, physical bubble of some sort) going to be exposed to O and have no say over whether or not we will have a symptomatic infection ... All we can do is stay aware and careful and try to minimise the viral load in the environment ( eg ventilation, masks, hygiene) for the (possible/probable) benefit of the more-vulnerable among us.


I agree. Omicron may well change my experiences so far, time will tell on that score. I was expecting 12 for lunch later and asked everyone to test because we have 1 vulnerable person in the group, but sadly my niece tested positive and due to the household isolating rules in Scotland, the younger niece can't come either. I try to ignore the fact their mother then went out to the supermarket to get themselves a turkey.


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## Slick (25 Dec 2021)

Slick said:


> I agree. Omicron may well change my experiences so far, time will tell on that score. I was expecting 12 for lunch later and asked everyone to test because we have 1 vulnerable person in the group, but sadly my niece tested positive and due to the household isolating rules in Scotland, the younger niece can't come either. I try to ignore the fact their mother then went out to the supermarket to get themselves a turkey.


I meant to add that everyone in the family immediately blamed the niece for being out clubbing when the actual truth is she is far more likely to have caught it whilst waitressing and dealing with the public.


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## KnittyNorah (25 Dec 2021)

Slick said:


> I meant to add that everyone in the family immediately blamed the niece for being out clubbing when the actual truth is she is far more likely to have caught it whilst waitressing and dealing with the public.



Now with O there can be no possible 'blame' laid on anyone who - despite responsible behaviour - catches it; she was probably more likely to have caught it from a totally asymptomatic brief contact who was -ve on LFT earlier in the day, than she was from anyone else. 
Anyone dealing with the public on a regular basis WILL be infected with O and probably sooner rather than later.


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## Slick (25 Dec 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> Now with O there can be no possible 'blame' laid on anyone who - despite responsible behaviour - catches it; she was probably more likely to have caught it from a totally asymptomatic brief contact who was -ve on LFT earlier in the day, than she was from anyone else.
> Anyone dealing with the public on a regular basis WILL be infected with O and probably sooner rather than later.


I think the family are now widely in agreement but it did take some explaining initially.

I was just delighted she tested, as I've seen first hand what some of the younger ones think of that.


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## KnittyNorah (25 Dec 2021)

Slick said:


> I think the family are now widely in agreement but it did take some explaining initially.
> 
> I was just delighted she tested, as I've seen first hand what some of the younger ones think of that.



Yes, brownie points to her for testing - AND being honest about the result.


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## Bazzer (25 Dec 2021)

PaulSB said:


> I went to the gym on Monday for the first time since March 2019. I was positive on Wednesday with LFT and PCR tests. There were only 6 people on the spin class which has room for 24.
> 
> Family Christmas cancelled for today. Replanned for Tuesday. I now think I was stupid to go and gyms are probably one of the most dangerous places one can visit. Membership cancelled.


Your post did come to mind when sister told me of her positive test and what she told me at the time had previously been doing. 
After she told me, I also did some online research about the incubation period, because she had visited our Mum, who is in a care home, the evening before the +ve test. I and my family would like Mum to come to my house on the 27th, but daughter 2's boyfriend's mother works in a care home, so I am wary of our household being a conduit for spreading it between care homes.
What my sister hadn't mentioned, until she was on a call this morning and looking as rough as a bear's a***, was that she had also been on a works Christmas do.
On the bright side, as a result of my sister testing +ve, the home did a PCR yesterday, which they wouldn't have otherwise done. Had they stuck to their usual Mondays for everyone and no one is allowed out until the PCR results come back, Mum wouldn't be allowed out on the 27th. So finger crossed, Mum's test comes back negative.


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## keithmac (26 Dec 2021)

We all tested yesterday morning prior to nipping around to wife's sisters for an hour.

Just common sense and decency really.


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## mjr (26 Dec 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> as we are _all _(unless we live in a literal, physical bubble of some sort) going to be exposed to O


How do you work that out and when do you think it will peak?


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## Julia9054 (26 Dec 2021)

KnittyNorah said:


> we are _all _(unless we live in a literal, physical bubble of some sort) going to be exposed to O


It'd be nice to be able to schedule it for a time when it is convenient!


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## KnittyNorah (26 Dec 2021)

Interesting thoughts on the A-Z vaccine (which I think lots of us here got) by former head of vaccine taskforce:
Oxford AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine ‘preventing lagged rise in deaths’ | The Independent


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## Bazzer (30 Dec 2021)

The care home my Mum went into at the start of December is in now in lockdown after a member of staff tested positive. The only visitors allowed are the named essential carer. Which is a bugger, as the named essential carer is my sister, who on Christmas Eve tested positive.


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## Ajax Bay (30 Dec 2021)

Significant increase in hospital bed occupancy by patients tested positive for COVID (though aiui most not admitted 'for COVID illness'): 23 Dec: 8,254; 30 Dec: 11,898 (+3,654). Of these 1380 is the increase in London's hospitals (3,477 from 2,097, up 65%).
Above the age of 60 all the vaccination status levels (1/2/B) in London are well below national levels. Maybe merely correlation - many other factors in play.
Noticeably, ICU has seen much less increase in London (cf covid beds): up 'only' 18% but need to recognise we might expect a few days lag, but only a few. Nationally (English) plotting (COVID occupied) beds v MV capable (COVID occupied) beds gives this plot:


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## deptfordmarmoset (30 Dec 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> Significant increase in hospital bed occupancy by patients tested positive for COVID (though aiui most not admitted 'for COVID illness'): 23


An Guardian article I saw yesterday tried to tackle the patients with covid figures. If they were admitted for other reasons, they came up with the figure of 70% were primarily being treated for covid. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...he-true-scale-of-uk-covid-hospital-admissions


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## Ajax Bay (31 Dec 2021)

I absolutely acknowledge I don't know what the 'with' and 'for' percentages of COVID bed occupancy are for UK.
Why does this not get more coverage? Might this reduce the 'fear' factor, and would that be a good thing or not?
On 'Long COVID':
Post-acute COVID-19 syndrome, better known as long COVID or long-haul COVID is really hard to define. On 6 Oct, the WHO released a consensus case definition for long COVID that is rather vague. It defines the syndrome thus:

Occurs in those with a history or probable history of SARS-CoV-2 infection;
Involves symptoms that occur or persist 3 months from infection;
Has symptoms that last at least 2 months; and
Cannot be explained by an alternative diagnosis.
What symptoms might count? The list includes brain fog, abdominal pain, palpitations, anxiety, and new allergies, among others.
Medscape article
Concludes (precised):
Frustrated with how we're handling long COVID:

case definition is bad
zero diagnostic tests
some argue it isn't even a real problem
long COVID definitely exists;
we don't know how common it is
need to recognize that vague symptoms lead to vague diagnoses
risk labeling a bunch of people with "long COVID" when that's not what they have at all
does a disservice to all because it makes it that much harder to make progress on this disease...whatever it is.
Author: F. Perry Wilson, MD, MSCE, Associate professor of medicine and director of Yale's Clinical and Translational Research Accelerator.


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## Dogtrousers (31 Dec 2021)

Did anyone watch the Royal Institution xmas lectures - on the subject of Covid?

_In the 2021 CHRISTMAS LECTURES, England’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Jonathan Van-Tam will be joined by a host of top UK scientists to take a deep dive into the science of viruses._

I thought they were excellent, but then I've been a fan of the RI xmas lectures for as long as I can remember. I expect they are on iPlayer.

Edit, indeed they are on iplayer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b00pmbqq/royal-institution-christmas-lectures


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## All uphill (31 Dec 2021)

Ajax Bay said:


> I absolutely acknowledge I don't know what the 'with' and 'for' percentages of COVID bed occupancy are for UK.
> Why does this not get more coverage? Might this reduce the 'fear' factor, and would that be a good thing or not?
> On 'Long COVID':
> Post-acute COVID-19 syndrome, better known as long COVID or long-haul COVID is really hard to define. On 6 Oct, the WHO released a consensus case definition for long COVID that is rather vague. It defines the syndrome thus:
> ...


Thanks for this - very helpful.

Going from my son's version of long covid, and the reported experiences of others I strongly suspect there is no one long covid. More like a constellation of symptoms which differ between sufferers.

The NHS seems to have found it difficult to get to grips with this; he has had absolutely minimal support from GP or specialists.


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## vickster (31 Dec 2021)

All uphill said:


> Thanks for this - very helpful.
> 
> Going from my son's version of long covid, and the reported experiences of others I strongly suspect *there is no one long covid. More like a constellation of symptoms which differ between sufferers.*
> 
> The NHS seems to have found it difficult to get to grips with this; he has had absolutely minimal support from GP or specialists.


I assume that’s why it’s referred to as a syndrome above


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## newts (31 Dec 2021)

This metric would indicate that vaccination has hepled to reduce the occupation of mechanical ventilation beds, especially considering we have more than double the amount of cases compared to the January 2021 peak.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare


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## Milzy (31 Dec 2021)

newts said:


> This metric would indicate that vaccination has hepled to reduce the occupation of mechanical ventilation beds, especially considering we have more than double the amount of cases compared to the January 2021 peak.
> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
> 
> View attachment 624263


Great. The anti vaxxers won’t believe anything on a government website though.


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## Ming the Merciless (31 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> Great. The anti vaxxers won’t believe anything on a government website though.



They won’t believe anything that isn’t from a Facebook “friend”


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## vickster (31 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> Great. The anti vaxxers won’t believe anything on a government website though.


Or any website based on scientific fact or anything that might be remotely true or accurate … and not a load of utter bollox


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## Johnno260 (31 Dec 2021)

Milzy said:


> Great. The anti vaxxers won’t believe anything on a government website though.



put it on YouTube and they may believe it lol


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## KnittyNorah (31 Dec 2021)

Johnno260 said:


> put it on YouTube and they may believe it lol



...especially if it's presented by someone who claims to be a 'professional crystal healer' with a background in 'runes for health', and author of the article 'Water for Wellness' which advocates drinking a litre of lukewarm boiled rainwater daily, and eschewing all use of tapwater for drinking or cooking purposes. 
It would be extra-useful if they also had a PhD from a fake university, probably in the US, thus ensuring they are put forward as _Doctor_ Whatisname.


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## Bazzer (1 Jan 2022)

Milzy said:


> Great. The anti vaxxers won’t believe anything on a government website though.


I thought you were vaccine sceptical, or was it just the booster programme and the government imposing restrictions to help prevent the spread, you disagreed with?


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## Milzy (1 Jan 2022)

Bazzer said:


> I thought you were vaccine sceptical, or was it just the booster programme and the government imposing restrictions to help prevent the spread, you disagreed with?


My mate was boosted a week ago & has covid bad now. Without the booster he wouldn't be any worse than he is now in my opinion. England is fully open, Stopping the spread my @r$e!


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## midlife (1 Jan 2022)

Milzy said:


> My mate was boosted a week ago & has covid bad now. Without the booster he wouldn't be any worse than he is now in my opinion. England is fully open, Stopping the spread my @r$e!



So you think boosters don't work?


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## Alex321 (1 Jan 2022)

Milzy said:


> My mate was boosted a week ago & has covid bad now. Without the booster he wouldn't be any worse than he is now in my opinion. England is fully open, Stopping the spread my @r$e!


If he only had the booster a week ago, it won't have had much effect. It takes 2-3 weeks to be fully effective. But of course, you have no idea how bad he would have been without it.


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## Bazzer (1 Jan 2022)

Milzy said:


> My mate was boosted a week ago & has covid bad now. Without the booster he wouldn't be any worse than he is now in my opinion. England is fully open, Stopping the spread my @r$e!


So has and is my sister, who was fully vaccinated and boosted. But in the absence of evidence to the contrary, I prefer to believe the likes of Professor Van-Tam and think my sister may well have been hospitalised or even dead, without the vaccination programme in place.


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## VelvetUnderpants (1 Jan 2022)

I tested positive for Covid last Wednesday. This is the second time I have had the infection, this time far less bothersome. No temperature. I had a sore throat and chest with cough which lasted 48 hours and feeling run down. As of now, no sore throat, chest is fine, my lymph glands in my neck are tender and still feel weak and run down. Pretty much like a crappy cold, but after the first experience, I was under no illusions how nasty this virus can be. I have had both shots (Pfizer) and my booster, and believe I would have had a much tougher time if I had not had them. I had my PCR test yesterday and wait to find out what variant it is. Pretty sure it's Omicron.

My neighbour is a year older than me, in his mid-fifties, and was fervently anti vaccination. He is on day eleven of his infection and when I rang him this morning he told me he barely has the strength to get out of bed and make it to the toilet. He is a very muscular manual worker and normally strong as an ox.

He admitted to me that with hindsight he wished he had the vaccine.


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## Johnno260 (1 Jan 2022)

Thanks Mods you rock.

That wasn’t sarcasm.


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## Milzy (3 Jan 2022)

Her indoors has been positive on lateral flow but we’ve been waiting days for a PCR to arrive. Anyway I’m pretty sure I’m immune to all variants. 
Good day.


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## lazybloke (3 Jan 2022)

Milzy said:


> Her indoors has been positive on lateral flow but we’ve been waiting days for a PCR to arrive. Anyway I’m pretty sure I’m immune to all variants.
> Good day.


I'm pretty sure you're wrong. Good luck.


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## T.M.H.N.E.T (3 Jan 2022)

VelvetUnderpants said:


> I tested positive for Covid last Wednesday. This is the second time I have had the infection, this time far less bothersome. No temperature. I had a sore throat and chest with cough which lasted 48 hours and feeling run down. As of now, no sore throat, chest is fine, my lymph glands in my neck are tender and still feel weak and run down. Pretty much like a crappy cold, but after the first experience, I was under no illusions how nasty this virus can be. I have had both shots (Pfizer) and my booster, and believe I would have had a much tougher time if I had not had them. I had my PCR test yesterday and wait to find out what variant it is. Pretty sure it's Omicron.
> 
> My neighbour is a year older than me, in his mid-fifties, and was fervently anti vaccination. He is on day eleven of his infection and when I rang him this morning he told me he barely has the strength to get out of bed and make it to the toilet. He is a very muscular manual worker and normally strong as an ox.
> 
> He admitted to me that with hindsight he wished he had the vaccine.


Had a PCR test this morning after 4 negative lateral flows. Bit like yourself, sore throat and minor cough which by friday had led to being unable to answer the phone or use the site radios. Had a bath saturday afternoon then spent 20mins lying in the hallway short of breath, felt a great deal better yesterday for a few hours then headache appeared, coughing up all sorts of lumps that took my breath away.

Presumably is covid, doubled jabbed and boosted. A colleague has had a pretty hefty chest infection of late which given we're a 24/7 core team in a small space, might well be his germs.


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## Slick (3 Jan 2022)

Milzy said:


> Her indoors has been positive on lateral flow but we’ve been waiting days for a PCR to arrive. Anyway I’m pretty sure I’m immune to all variants.
> Good day.


Sorry to hear that, hopefully if it does turn out to be positive, you will both recover quickly.


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## Bazzer (3 Jan 2022)

Mum's care home now in lockdown following another member of staff catching COVID and residents now confined to their rooms. No visitors except named essential carers. Department of Health has also instructed no residents to leave the home unless except for life threatening purposes for the next two weeks. So that's knackered 4 hospital appointments, including removal of a wrist cast and injections for macular degeneration. 😡


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## Milzy (3 Jan 2022)

Children back to school tomorrow & I bet it will close soon after when all the positive reports come in from staff & kids.


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## Julia9054 (3 Jan 2022)

Milzy said:


> Children back to school tomorrow & I bet it will close soon after when all the positive reports come in from staff & kids.


I really hope not. I hated it this time last year


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## Ajax Bay (3 Jan 2022)

Wasn't this time/term last year a one day wonder? Till 8 March, iirc.
Just keep the little urchins at twice arms length; don't visit the common room, take a pack lunch, double mask with at least one an N95, make sure all the windows are open and steal the headmaster's air conditioning unit @Julia9054


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## Milzy (3 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Wasn't this time/term last year a one day wonder? Till 8 March, iirc.
> Just keep the little urchins at twice arms length; don't visit the common room, take a pack lunch, double mask with at least one an N95, make sure all the windows are open and steal the headmaster's air conditioning unit @Julia9054


The one day wonder was insane. But they like to listen to the science when it’s too late.


----------



## mjr (4 Jan 2022)

France extends mask-wearing in public places down to 6 years olds and quarantine shortened to five days if you test negative then https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...ion-for-covid-positive-to-7-days-from-10-days


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## T.M.H.N.E.T (4 Jan 2022)

PCR back negative😊 That doesn't really explain why I'm sore and fatigued from tit to todger + the coughing and breathlessness.

Waiting on a callback from my doc, hopefully strong drugs


----------



## mjr (4 Jan 2022)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> PCR back negative😊 That doesn't really explain why I'm sore and fatigued from tit to todger + the coughing and breathlessness.
> 
> Waiting on a callback from my doc, hopefully strong drugs


Tit to todger? So legs still working enough for a gentle bike ride! 

There are a couple of vicious colds circulating this winter and I've not heard of much beyond lemsip-and-menthol-style treatments to ease the wait for the body to fight them off.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (4 Jan 2022)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> PCR back negative😊 That doesn't really explain why I'm sore and fatigued from tit to todger + the coughing and breathlessness.
> 
> Waiting on a callback from my doc, hopefully strong drugs



It’s easy to think Covid-19 is the only thing going around. It’s not, there are other respiratory viruses in circulation


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## T.M.H.N.E.T (4 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Tit to todger? So legs still working enough for a gentle bike ride!
> 
> There are a couple of vicious colds circulating this winter and I've not heard of much beyond lemsip-and-menthol-style treatments to ease the wait for the body to fight them off.


I've been recruiting a lot of muscle during cough fits  not a recommended ab workout


----------



## vickster (4 Jan 2022)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> PCR back negative😊 That doesn't really explain why I'm sore and fatigued from tit to todger + the coughing and breathlessness.
> 
> Waiting on a callback from my doc, hopefully strong drugs


I know several people who've needed antibiotics to resolve non-Covid related chest infections - as above, it's winter, other viruses are out there (and those pesky bacterial opportunistic infections too).
I know more people who've had Covid and not needed medical attention (me included, the cough was tickly and irritating, not chesty) (all were fully vaccinated and/or boosted)


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## T.M.H.N.E.T (4 Jan 2022)

vickster said:


> I know several people who've needed antibiotics to resolve non-Covid related chest infections - as above, it's winter, other viruses are out there (and those pesky bacterial opportunistic infections too).
> I know more people who've had Covid and not needed medical attention (me included, the cough was tickly and irritating, not chesty) (all were fully vaccinated and/or boosted)


I've been told to take paracetamol and give it a couple weeks. Dr Useless will see you now! Have binned work for a few days so I can stay at home wrapped in cats drinking tea and feeling sorry for myself


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## fossyant (4 Jan 2022)

Ming the Merciless said:


> It’s easy to think Covid-19 is the only thing going around. It’s not, there are other respiratory viruses in circulation



There are indeed. MrsF has been quite poorly. PCR and LFT'ed !


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## mjr (4 Jan 2022)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> I've been told to take paracetamol and give it a couple weeks. Dr Useless will see you now! Have binned work for a few days so I can stay at home wrapped in cats drinking tea and feeling sorry for myself


Do cats like tea? Is it safe for them?

But yes, unless you get a bacterial infection off the back of it like vickster mentioned, there seems to be naff all beyond painkillers, anti-inflammatories and stimulants against common colds still!


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## fossyant (4 Jan 2022)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> I've been told to take paracetamol and give it a couple weeks. Dr Useless will see you now! Have binned work for a few days so I can stay at home wrapped in cats drinking tea and feeling sorry for myself



Work have told us not to go in if showing any illness - that was until Boris advised WFH again. We still had to work if poorly, although, if properly poorly, you called in 'sick'.


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## T.M.H.N.E.T (4 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Do cats like tea? Is it safe for them?


Mine do, they're also fond of cheese, porridge and yoghurts. Occasionally he will lick the flavour off a crisp


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## vickster (4 Jan 2022)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> Mine do, they're also fond of cheese, porridge and yoghurts. Occasionally he will lick the flavour off a crisp


Mine likes milky bar mousse but generally won’t eat ‘human’ food…or Dreamies


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## vickster (4 Jan 2022)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> I've been told to take paracetamol and give it a couple weeks. Dr Useless will see you now! Have binned work for a few days so I can stay at home wrapped in cats drinking tea and feeling sorry for myself


Are you coughing up luminous coloured gunk and running a fever? If so, get in touch with quack.
Otherwise mtfu


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## T.M.H.N.E.T (4 Jan 2022)

vickster said:


> Mine likes milky bar mousse but generally won’t eat ‘human’ food…or Dreamies


I'm sorry to have to tell you this, I believe your cat may be broken 🦁


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## T.M.H.N.E.T (4 Jan 2022)

vickster said:


> Are you coughing up luminous coloured gunk and running a fever? If so, get in touch with quack.
> Otherwise mtfu


I would be if I could actually cough it up


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## Ming the Merciless (4 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Do cats like tea? Is it safe for them?
> 
> But yes, unless you get a bacterial infection off the back of it like vickster mentioned, there seems to be naff all beyond painkillers, anti-inflammatories and stimulants against common colds still!



Thats seems like a strange concoction for a common cold. Main one really is not to over exert yourself and let it do it’s thing. Leave the tablets alone.


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## Alex321 (4 Jan 2022)

vickster said:


> Mine likes milky bar mousse but generally won’t eat ‘human’ food…or Dreamies


Ours loves Dreamies - in some flavours at least. They are his treat "snack".


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## mjr (4 Jan 2022)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Thats seems like a strange concoction for a common cold. Main one really is not to over exert yourself and let it do it’s thing. Leave the tablets alone.


No, I'm going to keep on following https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/common-cold/ not forum randomness.


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## Ming the Merciless (4 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> No, I'm going to keep on following https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/common-cold/ not forum randomness.



From that page, so hardly randomness. Some are too quick to pop a pill when it isn’t necessary.

To help you get better more quickly:


rest and sleep
keep warm
drink plenty of water (fruit juice or squash mixed with water is OK) to avoid dehydration
gargle salt water to soothe a sore throat (not suitable for children)


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## newts (4 Jan 2022)

Ming the Merciless said:


> From that page, so hardly randomness. Some are too quick to pop a pill when it isn’t necessary.
> 
> To help you get better more quickly:
> 
> ...


From that page, the next paragraph;-

You can:

ease aches or lower a temperature with painkillers like paracetamol or ibuprofen
relieve a blocked nose with decongestant sprays or tablets


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## vickster (4 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> Ours loves Dreamies - in some flavours at least. They are his treat "snack".


I think most cats do...I bought him a pack when he went off his food due to IBD flare. He didn't eat one so the pack went to my friend's cat Molly who would live on them if she could!


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## Illaveago (4 Jan 2022)

It looks like France have discovered a new variant which is more infectious than the Omicron version .


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## mjr (4 Jan 2022)

Illaveago said:


> It looks like France have discovered a new variant which is more infectious than the Omicron version .


What's your source for "more infectious", please? Are you referring to the one detected a month ago? News Show | arirang TV – http://www.arirang.com/Mobile/News_Detail.asp?nseq=290765


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## Alex321 (4 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> What's your source for "more infectious", please? Are you referring to the one detected a month ago? News Show | arirang TV – http://www.arirang.com/Mobile/News_Detail.asp?nseq=290765


I assume he is talking about this https://www.firstpost.com/health/fr...an-omicron-all-we-know-about-it-10256521.html


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## Ming the Merciless (4 Jan 2022)

Illaveago said:


> It looks like France have discovered a new variant which is more infectious than the Omicron version .



Is that Omacron?


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## Illaveago (4 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> What's your source for "more infectious", please? Are you referring to the one detected a month ago? News Show | arirang TV – http://www.arirang.com/Mobile/News_Detail.asp?nseq=290765


I Just saw it pop up on my tablet . Called IHU. WHO haven't fully investigated it yet .


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## mjr (4 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> I assume he is talking about this https://www.firstpost.com/health/fr...an-omicron-all-we-know-about-it-10256521.html


Yes, same thing I linked. Detected 10 Dec. Not yet a variant of concern so wait and see. Not sure why this is getting pumped again now.


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## MartinQ (4 Jan 2022)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Is that Omacron?


Or the even more invasive Onapoleon.


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## Ming the Merciless (4 Jan 2022)

MartinQ said:


> Or the even more invasive Onapoleon.



Maybe Eurotunnel need to revert to Waterloo so it’s terminus for Onapolean?


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## classic33 (4 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Yes, same thing I linked. Detected 10 Dec. Not yet a variant of concern so wait and see. Not sure why this is getting pumped again now.



B.1.640.2 strain, not forum randomness. And of some concern to the experts
https://extra.ie/2022/01/04/news/ir...s-identify-new-covid-strain-with-46-mutations


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## mjr (4 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> B.1.640.2 strain, not forum randomness. And of some concern to the experts
> https://extra.ie/2022/01/04/news/ir...s-identify-new-covid-strain-with-46-mutations


What experts? That article cites none, only mentions the original 12 cases reported a month ago and "there is little evidence it could out-compete Omicron".

This sudden surge of rereporting is very odd. Maybe the lack of new restrictions in most countries has left news sites with space to fill.


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## vickster (4 Jan 2022)

Journos back from their Christmas break?


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## classic33 (4 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> What experts? That article cites none, only mentions the original 12 cases reported a month ago and "there is little evidence it could out-compete Omicron".
> 
> This sudden surge of rereporting is very odd. Maybe the lack of new restrictions in most countries has left news sites with space to fill.


Depends on what you class as "new restrictions". 
Some that were already in place were simply tightened prior to christmas, in Ireland.


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## Ajax Bay (4 Jan 2022)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Is that Omacron?


Given the WHO's sensitivity in the autumn avoiding greek letters sounding like national leaders one has to ask how Omacron slipped through the (a)political sieve.


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## ColinJ (4 Jan 2022)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> That doesn't really explain why I'm sore and fatigued from tit to todger + the coughing and breathlessness.





vickster said:


> Are you coughing up luminous coloured gunk and running a fever? If so, get in touch with quack.
> Otherwise mtfu


Not the best advice... Signed, someone who was _not _coughing up gunk _or _running a fever, and _DID _mtfu, almost to the point of death! 

@T.M.H.N.E.T - those are exactly the symptoms that I put up with for a few weeks before ending up in hospital with my DVT/PE...

Are your legs ok? NHS advice *HERE*.


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## T.M.H.N.E.T (4 Jan 2022)

ColinJ said:


> Not the best advice... Signed, someone who was _not _coughing up gunk _or _running a fever, and _DID _mtfu, almost to the point of death!
> 
> @T.M.H.N.E.T - those are exactly the symptoms that I put up with for a few weeks before ending up in hospital with my DVT/PE...
> 
> Are your legs ok? NHS advice *HERE*.


Yes,ta!


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## vickster (4 Jan 2022)

ColinJ said:


> Not the best advice... Signed, someone who was _not _coughing up gunk _or _running a fever, and _DID _mtfu, almost to the point of death!
> 
> @T.M.H.N.E.T - those are exactly the symptoms that I put up with for a few weeks before ending up in hospital with my DVT/PE...
> 
> Are your legs ok? NHS advice *HERE*.


Well I was guessing he had urti / man flu symptoms (ie snot) before the cough


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## ColinJ (4 Jan 2022)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> Yes,ta!


How about elsewhere? DVTs are usually in the legs but you can get them in arms, abdomen etc.

When I eventually went to my GP, he just said I had a 'chest infection' and prescribed me some anti-inflammatories to reduce the discomfort from the coughing (which worked, but just masked what was going on). It took another couple of weeks for the truth to reveal itself. If your doc doesn't come up with something convincing then I wouldn't just wait and see...


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## T.M.H.N.E.T (4 Jan 2022)

ColinJ said:


> How about elsewhere? DVTs are usually in the legs but you can get them in arms, abdomen etc.
> 
> When I eventually went to my GP, he just said I had a 'chest infection' and prescribed me some anti-inflammatories to reduce the discomfort from the coughing (which worked, but just masked what was going on). It took another couple of weeks for the truth to reveal itself. If your doc doesn't come up with something convincing then I wouldn't just wait and see...


I'd a fairly good look around myself in the bath earlier and nothing seemed out of place


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## ColinJ (4 Jan 2022)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> I'd a fairly good look around myself in the bath earlier and nothing seemed out of place


It's a mystery then!


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## T.M.H.N.E.T (4 Jan 2022)

ColinJ said:


> It's a mystery then!


Hopefully one that solves itself soon


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## MartinQ (4 Jan 2022)

T.M.H.N.E.T said:


> I'd a fairly good look around myself in the bath earlier and nothing seemed out of place


At the end, you must have felt drained though?


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## T.M.H.N.E.T (4 Jan 2022)

MartinQ said:


> At the end, you must have felt drained though?


Very clever 🙈


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## Illaveago (5 Jan 2022)

I don't get that!
An epidemiologist was just saying that just because we have a large number of infections the restrictions on people coming into the country can be relaxed despite the fact that they may bring in new viruses .
Isn't it a bit like saying that if you are in a sinking ship it is okay to drill holes in the hull ?


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## Alex321 (5 Jan 2022)

Illaveago said:


> I don't get that!
> An epidemiologist was just saying that just because we have a large number of infections the restrictions on people coming into the country can be relaxed despite the fact that they may bring in new viruses .
> Isn't it a bit like saying that if you are in a sinking ship it is okay to drill holes in the hull ?


Well drilling holes in the hull would have no benefits, while relaxing some of the entry restrictions would.

Neither would have any significant negative impact given the situation in each case.


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## midlife (5 Jan 2022)

Lateral flow done, been told we have to do them every day before work (NHS). Just have to find some more fir next week. I see that the requirement to take a PCR might change today. Wonder what that will do to the figures ?


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## Illaveago (5 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> Well drilling holes in the hull would have no benefits, while relaxing some of the entry restrictions would.
> 
> Neither would have any significant negative impact given the situation in each case.


To me it seems like how fast do you want the ship to sink !


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## jowwy (5 Jan 2022)

I thought the MTFU advice was persona non gratta on this site........


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## Alex321 (5 Jan 2022)

Illaveago said:


> To me it seems like how fast do you want the ship to sink !


Well drilling a few holes might make it sink a few seconds quicker, in several hours.

I think the point being made by the epidemiologist above was that when we have many times more new cases per day than the total number of arrivals from foreign parts, any new cases they bring in will be insignificant, so the benefit of retaining all those restrictions is too small to be worthwhile given the negative impacts.


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## matticus (5 Jan 2022)

Illaveago said:


> I don't get that!
> An epidemiologist was just saying that just because we have a large number of infections the restrictions on people coming into the country can be relaxed despite the fact that they may bring in new viruses .
> Isn't it a bit like saying that if you are in a sinking ship it is okay to drill holes in the hull ?


More like: don't bother putting an umbrella up.


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## ClichéGuevara (5 Jan 2022)

View: https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1478634613002186752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1478634613002186752%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.waccoe.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fskynewsbreak%2Fstatus%2F1478634613002186752%3Fs%3D21


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## mjr (5 Jan 2022)

Can anyone find a transcript of yesterday's Prime Ministerial statement, please? I find only press releases and partial (both senses) quotes.

Meanwhile, French President has said he will annoy(well, stronger and swearier) the unvaccinated 10% by requiring a covid-safe ticket for more and more things, in a statement criticised by some as unpresidential and blamed for delaying approval of related law changes currently progressing through the national assembly. https://www.euronews.com/2022/01/04...19-record-with-over-271-000-cases-in-24-hours

Israel studying first reported case of "flurona" https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/...-first-case-of-covid-and-flu-double-infection


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## classic33 (5 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Can anyone find a transcript of yesterday's Prime Ministerial statement, please? I find only press releases and partial (both senses) quotes.
> 
> Meanwhile, French President has said he will annoy(well, stronger and swearier) the unvaccinated 10% by requiring a covid-safe ticket for more and more things, in a statement criticised by some as unpresidential and blamed for delaying approval of related law changes currently progressing through the national assembly.
> 
> Israel studying first reported case of "flurona" https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/...-first-case-of-covid-and-flu-double-infection


Recorded in the US in 2020. And there's concern it may make a comeback.
https://www.newschannel5.com/news/s...oth-flu-and-coronavirus-could-make-a-comeback


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## mjr (5 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> Recorded in the US in 2020. And there's concern it may make a comeback.
> https://www.newschannel5.com/news/s...oth-flu-and-coronavirus-could-make-a-comeback


Thanks. Recorded but was it reported at the time?


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## Dogtrousers (5 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Meanwhile, French President has said he will annoy(well, stronger and swearier) the unvaccinated 10%


It took a bit of googling to discover that the word he used was "emmerder" or literally to enshit them. I don't know French idioms very well but that does seem quite sweary. It's generally been translated as "to pis s them off".


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## alicat (5 Jan 2022)

'Merde' is the most mild swear word in French so 'enmerder' is not very offensive either. Not as strong as 'pissing someone off' in English. More like annoy them/ make like hard for them. Like getting dog shoot on your shoes ...


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## classic33 (5 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Thanks. Recorded but was it reported at the time?


As far as I'm aware.

Israel has reported it's first case*, not the first case. 

*https://www.timesofisrael.com/fluro...e-of-patient-with-covid-and-flu-at-same-time/


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## Alex321 (5 Jan 2022)

alicat said:


> 'Merde' is the most mild swear word in French so 'enmerder' is not very offensive either. Not as strong as 'pissing someone off' in English. More like annoy them/ make like hard for them. Like getting dog shoot on your shoes ...


Given that "pissed off" is not usually regarded as a swear word at all in English, it would be hard to be less strong while still being one.


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## matticus (5 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> Given that "pissed off" is not usually regarded as a swear word at all in English, it would be hard to be less strong while still being one.


I suppose it's a different category: not a swear word, but you wouldn't put it in an official statement, for example.

(Unless you work for Viz Comics. Or The Happy Mondays.)


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## Alex321 (5 Jan 2022)

matticus said:


> I suppose it's a different category: not a swear word, but you wouldn't put it in an official statement, for example.
> 
> (Unless you work for Viz Comics. Or The Happy Mondays.)


Definitely. It is too informal for that. But it isn't something you would worry about the company before saying it in conversation.


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## Dogtrousers (5 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> Definitely. It is too informal for that. But it isn't something you would worry about the company before saying it in conversation.


"Enmerder" or "pissed off"? If the latter, I certainly _would _consider the company before saying it, and possibly choose "annoyed" or "irritated" instead.

Thinking about it, I'd be careful about using the former too, as people might find it odd that I was using a French word that I didn't really understand.


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## Alex321 (5 Jan 2022)

Dogtrousers said:


> "Enmerder" or "pissed off"? If the latter, I certainly _would _consider the company before saying it, and possibly choose "annoyed" or "irritated" instead.


The latter.
Ok. 
I wouldn't - maybe I don't associate with quite such refined people as you


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## ColinJ (5 Jan 2022)

I had the BBC TV news on at lunchtime while doing other things, and I was quite surprised to hear the BBC reporting the news from France as the President was going to 'piss off' the anti-vaxxers. I agree that it is mild, but I'm sure that it is the first time that I have heard them use it on the news.


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## fossyant (5 Jan 2022)

ColinJ said:


> I had the BBC TV news on at lunchtime while doing other things, and I was quite surprised to hear the BBC reporting the news from France as the President was going to 'piss off' the anti-vaxxers. I agree that it is mild, but I'm sure that it is the first time that I have heard them use it on the news.



I think it's ace, can you imagine Boris saying it !


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## ColinJ (5 Jan 2022)

fossyant said:


> I think it's ace, can you imagine Boris saying it !


No, what I imagine is this...



Boris Johnson might have said:


> I, I, I, I... think we should perhaps endeavour to induce an involuntary micturition response in those members of society too foolish to have availed themselves of the incredible vaccines that we have provided for them, and which can be jabbed into their arms at a moment's notice by the brave heroes of our amazing NHS, toiling on the viral front-line!


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## Ming the Merciless (5 Jan 2022)

fossyant said:


> I think it's ace, can you imagine Boris saying it !



Boris usually fobs people off, he just doesn’t say it in public!


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## Ajax Bay (5 Jan 2022)

I suggest that our Prime Minister has the language skills as well as experience to know what enmerder means, in practice. But this is starting to stray into NACA risk areas.


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## deptfordmarmoset (5 Jan 2022)

Johnson m'emmerde!


----------



## Pat "5mph" (5 Jan 2022)

Mod Note:
Can we please not stray into NACA off topics?
Cheers!


----------



## ClichéGuevara (5 Jan 2022)

View: https://twitter.com/PPaulCharles/status/1478793183727337477?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1478793183727337477%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.waccoe.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FPPaulCharles%2Fstatus%2F1478793183727337477


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## Slick (5 Jan 2022)

ClichéGuevara said:


> View: https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1478634613002186752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1478634613002186752%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.waccoe.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fskynewsbreak%2Fstatus%2F1478634613002186752%3Fs%3D21



A malingerers charter.


----------



## Alex321 (5 Jan 2022)

Slick said:


> A malingerers charter.


No more so than self-certification for sickness has always been since it was introduced.


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## Slick (5 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> No more so than self-certification for sickness has always been since it was introduced.


I don't think so. We could all go and complete a self cert or even convince a GP to give us a line but we couldn't get a genuine PCR result without having covid and in my line of work, that was the only thing standing in the way of the Monday club sooking a lemon before taking a lateral flow. Not pretty but reality for some.


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## deptfordmarmoset (5 Jan 2022)

I'll try lemon sooking next Monday, then.


----------



## Slick (5 Jan 2022)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I'll try lemon sooking next Monday, then.


Good luck.


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## midlife (5 Jan 2022)

Our Trust is ramping up PCR tests for staff. Anybody who tests positive on LFT will have a quick PCR and if negative then back to work I guess...


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## Dogtrousers (6 Jan 2022)

Wahay, bird flu too! In case anyone was getting a bit bored with Covid

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59896821
_*A person living in the south-west of England has caught bird flu, UK officials have confirmed.*
Cases like this are extremely rare and the individual probably became infected from very close contact with a sick or dead bird.
Experts say there is no evidence of onward spread and all close contacts of the person are being monitored._


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## newts (6 Jan 2022)

Dogtrousers said:


> Wahay, bird flu too! In case anyone was getting a bit bored with Covid
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59896821
> _*A person living in the south-west of England has caught bird flu, UK officials have confirmed.*
> ...


Oh clucking hell!


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## Ming the Merciless (6 Jan 2022)

Negative LFT today. But most importantly easy to get foil off the reagent in this pack of 7. Yay!


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## lazybloke (6 Jan 2022)

Dogtrousers said:


> Wahay, bird flu too! In case anyone was getting a bit bored with Covid
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59896821
> _*A person living in the south-west of England has caught bird flu, UK officials have confirmed.*
> ...


Avian flu was a UK problem in 2020. if I remember correctly, there was a ruling that all free-range poultry had to be brought indoors until further notice. I don't recall ever hearing any more.

More recently there have been avian flu issues elsewhere. I think it was Israel that had deaths in wild birds a month ago (ish) , and were embarking on farm culls to reduce the risk of a species jump to humans. Well, you don't need to watch Contagion to know what can happen next!


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## Ajax Bay (8 Jan 2022)

Cases peaked in all 4 nations before New Year.
We might assume that the seriously high daily booster vaccination rate till 24 Dec will have had a beneficial effect, countering the increased transmission rate from mixing either side of Christmas.
We might expect the falls since then to pause when back to school and back to work results in increased transmission and reported cases. There is no sign (from the number of tests data: about 1.5M tests a day reported) that paucity of testing is a factor. I think the UK is only second to Denmark in its tests per million rate. [https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus, pop > 10M]
Bed occupancy of beds which are MV capable (ICU) graphed against hospital bed occupancy (+ve test in last 28 days, all figures England) is falling (see below). If we take this as a proxy for lethality of the virus this reinforces the wider messages on that.





Unlike the other nations where the rate of increase is dropping, the rate of Welsh admissions increase is staying high : there's no obvious reason (maybe holiday reporting/delay/catch up issues).


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## gbb (11 Jan 2022)

Negative LFTs Friday and Monday but got pinged by the NHS covid app today, having apparently come into close contact with someone on Friday (probably at work). Thats the second time in about a month.
Ironically i was a bit rushed to LFT this morning so didnt bother, i will be doing one tonight.
We are reportedly getting around 10 cases a day at work....of a worksforce of maybe 200. (There are lots more but they fall u drr a different umbrella, different rules)


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## Tenacious Sloth (11 Jan 2022)

I’m isolating with COVID at the moment.

Although I started to experience symptoms last Tuesday lunchtime, my LFTs on Tuesday evening and Wednesday lunchtime both returned negative results.

It wasn’t until Wednesday evening that a LFT returned a positive result which was confirmed by a PCR the following day. I guess I was probably contagious for several days while testing negative.

The LFTs do work, but I don’t think a negative result should be used for the basis of a decision on whether or not to mix with others after experiencing cold like symptoms, unless it’s at least over 24 hours after first getting symptoms.


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## midlife (11 Jan 2022)

Hope all OK and you are better soon. Symptoms warrant a PCR and not LFT according to our NHS Trust.


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## Milzy (11 Jan 2022)

Tenacious Sloth said:


> I’m isolating with COVID at the moment.
> 
> Although I started to experience symptoms last Tuesday lunchtime, my LFTs on Tuesday evening and Wednesday lunchtime both returned negative results.
> 
> ...


Our operations manager has said if you have cold symptoms but show a negative LTF please stay at home regardless.


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## Ajax Bay (11 Jan 2022)

The Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Infectivity with Changes in Aerosol Microenvironment study suggests that as the viral particles leave the relatively moist and carbon dioxide-rich conditions of the lungs, they rapidly lose water and dry out and a rapid increase in pH. Both of these factors disrupt the virus’s ability to infect human cells, but the speed at which the particles dry out *varies according to the relative humidity* of the surrounding air.
Precis:
When RH < 50% – office air – the aerosol-borne virus had lost around half of its infectivity within five *seconds*.
At 90% humidity very high eg bathroom immediately after shower, infectivity decline much slower: half of its infectivity in five *minutes*.
Temperature = no difference.
Real world deduction: In a pub primary risk is drinking group not other people in pub.
Chance of catching it from a rider whose wheel you're sucking = nil.
Highlights the importance of wearing a mask (mainly for others' benefit) in situations where people cannot physically distance.


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## fossyant (11 Jan 2022)

Son's work have lost about half the staff through covid this week - alloy wheels company. Mostly in the office. Fortunately, he's OK, LFT'ed this morning, but we are down to the last box - gone through 3 boxes over Christmas. More ordered direct, but not so sure we will get any. Local pharmacy has none.


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## classic33 (11 Jan 2022)

fossyant said:


> Son's work have lost about half the staff through covid this week - alloy wheels company. Mostly in the office. Fortunately, he's OK, LFT'ed this morning, but we are down to the last box - gone through 3 boxes over Christmas. More ordered direct, but not so sure we will get any. Local pharmacy has none.


How often a week are you testing?
Currently twice a week myself.


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## Johnno260 (11 Jan 2022)

Our childrens primary school are at the point of closing, if they lose one more member of staff to isolation for Covid then it will have to close.


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## fossyant (11 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> How often a week are you testing?
> Currently twice a week myself.



Me not much, until Xmas, been testing twice weekly since. Wife and daughter twice weekly. Son.. not as much, but tests probably weekly.

We've burnt through about 4 boxes though in the last few weeks, there we were feeling smug with lots... used up


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## Alex321 (12 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> How often a week are you testing?
> Currently twice a week myself.


I'm testing once a week - before I go to Morris practice on a Thursday.

With no going into the office until the Welsh government ease the restrictions, I hardly see anybody otherwise. My daughter may be coming over this weekend, and if she is, then I'll test Saturday morning as well.


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## mjr (12 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Precis:
> When RH < 50% – office air – the aerosol-borne virus had lost around half of its infectivity within five *seconds*.
> At 90% humidity very high eg bathroom immediately after shower, infectivity decline much slower: half of its infectivity in five *minutes*.


Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. This could also help explain the notorious outbreaks in gyms where one person infected 30+ in a class of less than an hour, but they probably shared a changing room/shower area too.


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## gbb (12 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> The Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Infectivity with Changes in Aerosol Microenvironment study suggests that as the viral particles leave the relatively moist and carbon dioxide-rich conditions of the lungs, they rapidly lose water and dry out and a rapid increase in pH. Both of these factors disrupt the virus’s ability to infect human cells, but the speed at which the particles dry out *varies according to the relative humidity* of the surrounding air.
> Precis:
> When RH < 50% – office air – the aerosol-borne virus had lost around half of its infectivity within five *seconds*.
> At 90% humidity very high eg bathroom immediately after shower, infectivity decline much slower: half of its infectivity in five *minutes*.
> ...


Despite the numbers of staff at our work, many who travel together on buses, don't wear masks, or when they do, do so poorly/reluctantly, fail to socially distance, follow rules one way systems etc etc etc, we apper to have done ok as far as infections go. Some of this maybe air filtration, its a new factory with quite comprehensive and complex air filtration and circulation...added weekly fogging, compulsory (although not adhered to perfectly) mask wearing in food production areas.
In essence,despite a largely non compliant workforce, I'm staggered I haven't caught it, it'd be easy to conclude we're lucky to have a good air environment ...or wearing a mask indeed does offer very good protection (as well as regular use of alcohol based sanitiser)..in all, probability all three plus taking personal responsibility, something that is staggeringly lacking in a huge section of folk IME.


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## Johnno260 (12 Jan 2022)

I think people assume vaccination means you can reduce things like mask wearing and social distancing.

I'm boosted and still do all of those, the vaccine doesn't make you impervious as some think, I think it's where communication could be better.


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## rockyroller (12 Jan 2022)

get your booster ppl!  Neice caught covid & not feeling well. 2 jabs, not 3 & she has underlying conditions ...


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## KnittyNorah (12 Jan 2022)

Johnno260 said:


> I think people assume vaccination means you can reduce things like mask wearing and social distancing.
> 
> I'm boosted and still do all of those, the vaccine doesn't make you impervious as some think, I think it's where communication could be better.


Yes, all this with knobs on! 

I wear a N-95 respirator mask, unvalved, when using public transport or in any indoor environment which is one or more of busy, crowded, strangers, more than the very occasional non-masker and there-more-than-15 minutes; I keep my distance and have no compunction about asking others to keep theirs. In Lidl today for about 10 minutes - very uncrowded and everyone I saw was masked and consciously distancing - I wore a standard 3-ply mask. 
On the bus, if a non-masked person makes to sit beside me, I get out of my seat and move away as I have no wish to share an unmasked person's air, undiluted and at such close quarters. I try to avoid crowded/rush hour times; I appreciate not everyone can do that. I put a bag beside me and move it onto my lap when a masked person gets on in the hope that they will sit beside me rather than the unmasked one who gets on before or after! Takes a bit of slick timing but it often works.


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## Ajax Bay (14 Jan 2022)

Milzy said:


> the ones who died from complications from the vaccines?


After 6 months of vaccinations 45 million vaccines had been administered in UK.
7 Jul 2021: UK MHRA had received 1446 Yellow Card reports of suspected adverse drug reactions in which the patient died shortly after vaccination. The majority of these Yellow Card reports were in older people or people with underlying illnesses (UK MHRA).
This is a rate of 32 per million.
In 2020 (pre-vaccine) there were 80,830 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in England and Wales and about 49k of these were over 80s. There are about 3M aged over 80 in England and Wales (also ONS population estimates).
This is a tragic rate of ~1600 per million.
Darwin v Robert Redford (punk)?


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## Ajax Bay (14 Jan 2022)

Rate of hospital admissions flat. After the precipitous fall in recorded cases since 1 Jan, we'd have expected to drop more than it has in the last days. Why hasn't it?

From Wednesday's ONS update: 7% of people infected with Covid (week to 7 Jan, England).
Pre-Covid annual admissions England averaged 17M (say 60k per Jan day).
All admissions are PCR tested so with 60k daily admissions and 7% of them 'with' Covid, = 4,200 incidental covid admissions per day. But actually ~2,000 daily admissions (with a +ve test before or once admitted (England). 

Maybe there won't be much decrease in the admissions rate as we move to endemic circulation because of incidental admissions, until the infection rate is a fair bit lower? Hypothesis links with reports that half of all Covid admissions in London are now incidental admissions (patients are not primarily being treated for Covid).

The problem remains (for NHS and beyond) of the resource requirements and complications of people in hospital having Covid. Infection control in hospitals will become increasingly important: lack of suppression starts re-charging the pandemic potential in the population. Sustainable control measures against nosocomial infections are a key part of this. And this:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/uk-end-covid-pandemic-b1991297.html


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## Ajax Bay (15 Jan 2022)

From 'How are we doing?'


Kingfisher101 said:


> Sounds very similar to the common cold.............





lazybloke said:


> Which bit, the 150,000+ deaths?


Off topic, but:
No, you lazy bloke, the symptoms described of the dominant Omicron variant. This variant has caused a magnitude (or three) fewer (UK) deaths (<2,500 and that figure includes all those 'with' (incidentals) as well as 'caused by').
From Zoe, current symptoms
Runny nose, 73%
Headache, 68%
Fatigue, 64%
Sneezing, 60%
Sore throat, 60%
Persistent cough, 44%
other stuff


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## deptfordmarmoset (15 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> From 'How are we doing?'
> 
> 
> 
> ...


A minor curiosity about Omicron symptoms - according to Spector's latest video, certain countries are reporting a prevalence of ''lower back pain'' as a symptom but this is not appearing strongly in UK Zoe participants. It's not in the top 30 symptoms in their list.


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## MrGrumpy (15 Jan 2022)

Lower back pain, hmm how long has omicron been a round


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## Ajax Bay (16 Jan 2022)

*How do COVID-19 metrics compare to previous waves?*​The  OWID chart below visualizes the main COVID metrics _relative to the peak_ of the January wave (before vaccination programme).
The graph lines have each been set to show their January peaks coincident at 100% (y-axis) and time-shifted (x-axis).
Cases - 1 Jan
Deaths - 19 Jan
Hospital occupancy - 19 Jan
ICU MV bed - 23 Jan


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## Ajax Bay (17 Jan 2022)

To add, note that hospital bed occupancy (<20k) now is almost exactly half the peak 12 months ago and about 15% of all bed NHS capacity.
Mercifully, deaths (with or of COVID-19) are 'only' 1700 per week (close to 10000 last January)(UK data). In a pre-COVID era (average of 2015-2019) about 13,000 die (all causes, England and Wales) in each week of January.


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## Ajax Bay (17 Jan 2022)

A mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant?
[Study by Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Genetics Society of China, in Journal of Genetics and Genomics.]

The rapid accumulation of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant may have occurred in either humans or another mammalian host. 

45 point mutations that Omicron acquired since divergence from the B.1.1 lineage.
Omicron spike protein sequence was subjected to stronger positive selection than that of any reported SARS-CoV-2 variants known to evolve persistently in human hosts, suggesting a possibility of host-jumping.
The molecular spectrum of mutations of pre-Omicron was significantly different from the spectrum for viruses that evolved in human patients but resembled the spectra associated with virus evolution in a mouse cellular environment.
Mutations overlapped with SARS-CoV-2 mutations known to promote adaptation to mouse hosts, particularly through enhanced spike protein binding affinity for the mouse cell entry receptor.
"Collectively, our results suggest that the progenitor of Omicron jumped from humans to mice, rapidly accumulated mutations conducive to infecting that host, then jumped back into humans, indicating *an inter-species evolutionary trajectory for the Omicron* outbreak."


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## ClichéGuevara (17 Jan 2022)

Please see below for death registrations for 2020 and 2021 (provisional) that were due to COVID-19 and were recorded without any pre-existing conditions, England and Wales.

2020: 9400 (0-64: 1549 / 65 and over: 7851)

2021 Q1: 6483 (0-64: 1560/ 65 and over: 4923)

2021 Q2: 346 (0-64: 153/ 65 and over: 193)

2021 Q3: 1142 (0-64: 512/ 65 and over: 630)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/tran...hsfromcovid19withnootherunderlyingcauses?s=08


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## Ajax Bay (17 Jan 2022)

Adding to the figures @ClichéGuevara shared above (offering the complete numbers to put the 'without any pre-existing conditions' figure in context):

2020: 9400 (0-64: 1549 / 65 and over: 7851) - Total (E&W) for 2020 = 71k
2021 Q1: 6483 (0-64: 1560/ 65 and over: 4923) - Total (E&W) for 1Q 2021 = 46k
2021 Q2: 346 (0-64: 153/ 65 and over: 193) - Total (E&W) for 2Q 2021 = 1k
2021 Q3: 1142 (0-64: 512/ 65 and over: 630) - Total (E&W) for 3Q 2021 = 8k


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## Rocky (17 Jan 2022)

Interesting figures…..I keep asking myself why certain people are keen to discount deaths of people with pre-existing conditions (no jibes at anyone here). Surely, as a society we value people regardless of their underlying condition. Does having diabetes, COPD, dementia, arteriosclerosis, Parkinson’s etc etc make you any less of a person? In fact shouldn’t we be protecting our vulnerable? Their deaths count just as much as a fit able bodied human. 

People who are not fully able still make major contributions to society.


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## classic33 (17 Jan 2022)

Rocky said:


> Interesting figures…..I keep asking myself why certain people are keen to discount deaths of people with pre-existing conditions (no jibes at anyone here). Surely, as a society we value people regardless of their underlying condition. Does having diabetes, COPD, dementia, arteriosclerosis, Parkinson’s etc etc make you any less of a person? In fact shouldn’t we be protecting our vulnerable? Their deaths count just as much as a fit able bodied human.


Speaking for myself, SUDEP would be the most likely listed cause of death.

As a result of a pre-existing condition. Other causes could be used.


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## Rocky (17 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> Speaking for myself, SUDEP would be the most likely listed cause of death.
> 
> As a result of a pre-existing condition. Other causes could be used.


But Classic, your life is just as valuable as mine and we are just as valuable as a twenty year old who is fit and healthy. We shouldn’t be treated as second class citizens who somehow don’t really count when it comes to protecting us against Covid - or any other disease for that matter.


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## classic33 (17 Jan 2022)

Rocky said:


> But Classic, your life is just as valuable as mine and we are just as valuable as a twenty year old who is fit and healthy. We shouldn’t be treated as second class citizens who somehow don’t really count when it comes to protecting us against Covid - or any other disease for that matter.


For me, primary cause of death: SUDEP was the most likely to appear five years ago, not just these last two. It's human nature to seek the easiest answer.

I don't consider myself second class due to epilepsy, never have done.


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## KnittyNorah (17 Jan 2022)

Rocky said:


> Interesting figures…..I keep asking myself why certain people are keen to discount deaths of people with pre-existing conditions (no jibes at anyone here). Surely, as a society we value people regardless of their underlying condition. Does having diabetes, COPD, dementia, arteriosclerosis, Parkinson’s etc etc make you any less of a person? In fact shouldn’t we be protecting our vulnerable? Their deaths count just as much as a fit able bodied human.
> 
> People who are not fully able still make major contributions to society.



While I agree with you 100% about every individual death being 'equal', regardless of what disease, condition or syndrome a person might be living with, I don't think anyone here - or in the ONS, for that matter - is discounting anyone else's deaths by merely producing these figures.

They are simply putting all those deaths into a context where it can be seen that those without pre-existing conditions - which pre-existing conditions range very widely, from a recognised and diagnosed serious illness to those who might outwardly appear to be 'fairly healthy except for some/being a bit/having XXX' - are vastly, VASTLY more likely to _not_ have a lethal outcome than are those who are almost any degree of 'unwell'. 

If anything, it should lead those of us who are the healthy and well to offer more protection - _active_ protection, not lock-yourself-away, stay-out-of-society, so-called protection - to the unwell and more vulnerable of all degrees.

Of course there are far too many selfish b@$t@rd$ who will, and do, seek, at the first opportunity, to upset any carefully-balanced applecart of safety, and those of us who remain vulnerable be it by pre-existing condition or more generally by age alone, will need to continue to be _very careful _for some considerable time to come ...


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## classic33 (17 Jan 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> While I agree with you 100% about every individual death being 'equal', regardless of what disease, condition or syndrome a person might be living with, I don't think anyone here - or in the ONS, for that matter - is discounting anyone else's deaths by merely producing these figures.
> 
> They are simply putting all those deaths into a context where it can be seen that those without pre-existing conditions - which pre-existing conditions range very widely, from a recognised and diagnosed serious illness to those who might outwardly appear to be 'fairly healthy except for some/being a bit/having XXX' - are vastly, VASTLY more likely to _not_ have a lethal outcome than are those who are almost any degree of 'unwell'.
> 
> ...


Does that mean I don't have as much responsibility as anyone with no underlying condition?


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## KnittyNorah (17 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> Does that mean I don't have as much responsibility as anyone with no underlying condition?


No, but I think the population in general have more responsibility to behave considerately towards your _condition_ (if you choose to make them aware of that condition, or wish to take advantage of any extra consideration) than they do towards a person who does not have any condition which makes C-19 more risky, for whatever reason.
And you too - like everyone else in society - have more responsibility towards others with vulnerabilities to infection, in the same sort of way, even if you don't care about yourself in any way.


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## mistyoptic (17 Jan 2022)

Rocky said:


> Interesting figures…..I keep asking myself why certain people are keen to discount deaths of people with pre-existing conditions (no jibes at anyone here). Surely, as a society we value people regardless of their underlying condition. Does having diabetes, COPD, dementia, arteriosclerosis, Parkinson’s etc etc make you any less of a person? In fact shouldn’t we be protecting our vulnerable? Their deaths count just as much as a fit able bodied human.
> 
> People who are not fully able still make major contributions to society.


I didn’t see the reason for separate figures in quite the same way.

I took it that they were trying to distinguish between deaths in people with co-morbidity and deaths in those who were deemed to be in “normal health” (whatever that might mean).

This distinction because if someone has other health conditions which impact their body’s ability to fight COVID then that might affect the proportion of people in that group for whom the infection proves fatal.

I didn’t see any suggestion that one death was any more or less important than any other, more a part of trying to understand the impact of the pandemic


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## classic33 (17 Jan 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> No, but I think the population in general have more responsibility to behave considerately towards your _condition_ (if you choose to make them aware of that condition, or wish to take advantage of any extra consideration) than they do towards a person who does not have any condition which makes C-19 more risky, for whatever reason.
> And you too - like everyone else in society - have more responsibility towards others with vulnerabilities to infection, in the same sort of way, even if you don't care about yourself in any way.


I've done my best(The scout leader in me) to do the best I've been able over the last two years. Awkward at times, annoying at others. The latter due to peoples expectations.

I'm open about the epilepsy, trying to break down the "mystery" behind it. Appreciate your use of condition though.


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## Ajax Bay (17 Jan 2022)

Rocky said:


> as a society we value people regardless of their underlying condition. . . . . We shouldn’t be treated as second class citizens who somehow don’t really count when it comes to protecting us against Covid


I agree with the posters above various, and you Rocky. Everyone is going to catch Omicron this year, even with the protection vaccination and/or prior infection might offer. For the vast majority (thank goodness not Delta) suitably boosted and spurred, Omicron will asymptomatic or mild, even bad flu. For those with comorbidities and drawing a pension (and working or not) there is greater risk, worse than flu but not a magnitude worse.
To put figures on that: in January 2020 the number of deaths in England and Wales "involving and due to Influenza and Pneumonia" averaged 2700 a week (and 2020 was average (2015-2019) for all cause death in January). Currently per week (Covid +ve test within 28 days) death rate is about 1600. Likely one of our resident medics will provide better insight.
For those without underlying conditions and under 65 the chances of severe illness is very low (figures from above are Delta, so Omicron a percentage less (data with a narrow(er) CI follows shortly)). Knowing the figures (with an assurance of quality: the ONS ones in Cliche's post in the context of the overall deaths) and understanding the implications allows people to estimate the risk as opposed to suffering from a wide confidence interval fear factor as we move to living with another infectious disease.


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## SpokeyDokey (18 Jan 2022)

Rocky said:


> But Classic, your life is just as valuable as mine and we are just as valuable as a twenty year old who is fit and healthy. We shouldn’t be treated as second class citizens who somehow don’t really count when it comes to protecting us against Covid - or any other disease for that matter.



It really hacked me off when a friend callously disregarded the deaths of very old Covid victims (over 80's in their words) as having 'had their life'. 

Presumably he will jump off of a cliff edge on his 80th birthday if he should reach that milestone.


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## Milzy (18 Jan 2022)

SpokeyDokey said:


> It really hacked me off when a friend callously disregarded the deaths of very old Covid victims (over 80's in their words) as having 'had their life'.
> 
> Presumably he will jump off of a cliff edge on his 80th birthday if he should reach that milestone.


That’s terrible. If Australian government hadn’t done what they have many elderly & obese elderly would have died. It hacks me off when they say Omicron is just a cold. It may be weaker but more transmitted so can kill high risk folks nearly as much as Delta.


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## Johnno260 (18 Jan 2022)

No one is expendable and every life is valuable.


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## KnittyNorah (18 Jan 2022)

SpokeyDokey said:


> It really hacked me off when a friend callously disregarded the deaths of very old Covid victims (over 80's in their words) as having 'had their life'.
> 
> Presumably he will jump off of a cliff edge on his 80th birthday if he should reach that milestone.


The thing is - with all of us, but _especially _with people like that - 'very old' is a moveable point. It has a very different definition when one is 20, to the definition it has when one is 40, or 70 ... 
But that also means none of us can decide - in such a flippant way - when, or if, it's acceptable for other people to die of something preventable!


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## Johnno260 (18 Jan 2022)

I know a 90 year old who is more active than some 70year olds, they still cycle to the store to get the daily paper, bread and milk, age is a hard way to define as it’s got a huge breadth of people and issues.


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## Ajax Bay (18 Jan 2022)

Milzy said:


> That’s terrible. If Australian government hadn’t done what they have many elderly & obese elderly would have died. It hacks me off when they say Omicron is just a cold. It may be weaker but more transmitted so can kill high risk folks nearly as much as Delta.


Do people say 'Omicron is just a cold'? Or is that a strawman within a sealion? The case fatality rate cf Delta is way, way less (see my graphs up thread), so the threat of death from this variant (cf Delta) is NOT anywhere "nearly as much" especially in the fully vaccinated. As a community we can take that into account in the way we conduct ourselves and our interactions with others once the high case rate has plummeted. Reasonable people, if they have a bad cold say, will stay away from aged relatives/friends or others with vulnerabilities. This is no different but we'll need to get used to taking more care.


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## Johnno260 (18 Jan 2022)

It may be as GBN did a piece and basically said 17k people died of Covid and that had no underlying health issues, I'm seeing that news story shared a lot today in the usual places.

I said you can't disregard a death with an underlying issue, some could be long term chronic issues that someone could live with for an extended period of time, it wouldn't include anyone with cardiovascular issues etc epilepsy as well.

It's a very dishonest way to present data, the host tried to claim this 17k were the only legitimate deaths, I was seething after seeing it.


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## mjr (18 Jan 2022)

mistyoptic said:


> I took it that they were trying to distinguish between deaths in people with co-morbidity and deaths in those who were deemed to be in “normal health” (whatever that might mean).
> 
> This distinction because if someone has other health conditions which impact their body’s ability to fight COVID then that might affect the proportion of people in that group for whom the infection proves fatal.


I humbly suggest that anyone interested in that would probably distinguish between deaths in people with health conditions which impact the body’s ability to fight COVID and other deaths.

For example, none of my illnesses affect my covid survival as far as I know, which is why I was vaccinated with my age group and not classed as any sort of vulnerable, but if I did die from it, some scum would dismiss my death as a coffin-dodger with multiple illnesses not worth worrying about if it means they might have to spend any effort being careful to reduce the spread the virus.


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## Ming the Merciless (18 Jan 2022)

Anyone who is sedentary will have underlying health issues. They are not ill and at the same time not healthy. The vast majority have underlying health issues. They just don’t know it yet.


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## mjr (18 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> [...] Everyone is going to catch Omicron this year, [...]


That is almost certainly not true. There was a great illustration of why not in the second of last year's Royal Institution Christmas Lectures with the "gigantic game of lucky dip". https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0012tz5

Some will escape. It may not be many. It may not even be a good thing for them, if next winter's variant is worse and past Omicron infection offers some immunity. But probably not everyone will catch Omicron this year.


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## ClichéGuevara (18 Jan 2022)

As it now seems to have passed it's peak, and normality looks more and more likely, I wonder if there'll be a study to estimate the harm to people when they suddenly find they need something else to worry about?


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## PK99 (18 Jan 2022)

SpokeyDokey said:


> It really hacked me off when a friend callously disregarded the deaths of very old Covid victims (over 80's in their words) as having 'had their life'.
> 
> Presumably he will jump off of a cliff edge on his 80th birthday if he should reach that milestone.



But, one has to note the difference from the 1918 Flu pandemic where there was a major peak in age of death around 20/30 - including my paternal grandparents. Only over the past two years, as I have looked into this, have I realised just how many orphanages there were in Liverpool in the 1920's - my dad and his 4 sibs were each in separate orphanages and there were many more. The 1918 age profile was far more tragic than the current pandemic.


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## mjr (18 Jan 2022)

ClichéGuevara said:


> As it now seems to have passed it's peak, and normality looks more and more likely, I wonder if there'll be a study to estimate the harm to people when they suddenly find they need something else to worry about?


More than enough problems still exist in the world if you like living in fear, from climate change to that classic fear of communism.


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## ClichéGuevara (18 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> More than enough problems still exist in the world if you like living in fear, from climate change to that classic fear of communism



As it's a bonus round, two quotes and n'er the Twain shall meet. 

"Worrying is like paying a debt you don't owe.”

“I have spent most of my life worrying about things that have never happened.”


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## kingrollo (18 Jan 2022)

I just mowed the lawn wearing only my underpants. Did a lateral flow - negative.

It's over folks - good times.


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## Ming the Merciless (18 Jan 2022)

kingrollo said:


> I just mowed the lawn wearing only my underpants. Did a lateral flow - negative.
> 
> It's over folks - good times.



I’m not sure doing a lateral flow in your garden when only wearing your underpants is socially acceptable


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## kingrollo (18 Jan 2022)

Ming the Merciless said:


> I’m not sure doing a lateral flow in your garden when only wearing your underpants is socially acceptable


The neighbors loved it.

I'm on GB news tommorow.


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## Pat "5mph" (18 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Everyone is going to catch Omicron this year, even with the protection vaccination and/or prior infection might offer.


Well, I'm determined not to catch it 
Sadly, the announcement of all restrictions being lifted by March will bring lots more deaths in the vulnerable groups, imo.


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## Alex321 (18 Jan 2022)

Ming the Merciless said:


> I’m not sure doing a lateral flow in your garden when only wearing your underpants is socially acceptable


It probably ensures social distancing


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Jan 2022)

Pat 5mph said:


> the announcement of all restrictions being lifted by March will bring lots more deaths in the vulnerable groups, imo.


Pat - in March there will be more deaths in vulnerable groups. The vast vast majority of people who die (daily, all causes) are from vulnerable groups: these will happen: it's a fact of err life. The issue (about deaths not NHS) is what proportion of those being from COVID-19 is acceptable to our community, and the balance of benefit v cost of maintaining/imposing 'restrictions' (nb mental, fear, other medical needs, relationships, economics, freedom etc).


----------



## KnittyNorah (19 Jan 2022)

Pat 5mph said:


> Well, I'm determined not to catch it
> Sadly, the announcement of all restrictions being lifted by March will bring lots more deaths in the vulnerable groups, imo.



I agree with you BUT as @Ajax Bay rightly says, vulnerable groups will ALWAYS have a higher 'death rate' - from just everyday living - than will the rest of the population. 

That is why they're classed as 'vulnerable' - they are more vulnerable to serious illness, death, or long-term, even permanent, deleterious effects from the sort of general 'unwellness' or minor accident which most of the rest of the population is able to shrug off, albeit maybe after a few days of 'feeling rotten'. 

Merely getting older places an individual into one of these vulnerable groups, _even if they are in what is otherwise considered excellent health_. Unless/until a universal variant vaccine is developed,available, effective, and I've had it, I'm not going to stop wearing a good N-95 mask in crowded situations for many months or years yet and I'll keep a couple of spare packs with a long expiry date for the inevitable 'bad flu/coronavirus season' even if no new variants pop up to stab us in the back in the next few months ...


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## mjr (19 Jan 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> I agree with you BUT as @Ajax Bay rightly says, vulnerable groups will ALWAYS have a higher 'death rate' - from just everyday living - than will the rest of the population.


Nobody is disputing that. I think the suggestion is that the lifting of restrictions driven by non-scientific concerns will cause extra early deaths in vulnerable groups beyond that baseline level.


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## Ming the Merciless (19 Jan 2022)

Two thirds of side effects not caused by Covid vaccine 

https://www.theguardian.com/science...eactions-not-caused-by-vaccine-study-suggests


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## KnittyNorah (19 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Nobody is disputing that. I think the suggestion is that the lifting of restrictions driven by non-scientific concerns will cause extra early deaths in vulnerable groups beyond that baseline level.



Unfortunately, I think that in certain vulnerable groups - and especially the mentally ill/those with psychiatric/psychological problems - some continuing restrictions are themselves causing, or at least contributing to, extra early deaths. Some of those extra deaths might have been considered 'inevitable/unavoidable' (not 'acceptable' as such but ...) at the height of the pandemic - but are they, _now_? 

And how do we classify what are 'scientific' concerns? What is science? As a physicist, I tend towards having quite a narrow viewpoint about what science is ... LOL! Some people insist that economics and sociology are sciences ... and that psychology is not. 

I think I'd go with saying that any lifting or slackening of restrictions driven by non-_medical _interests will, at least in the short term, result in extra early deaths in _some_ vulnerable groups, but there might well be sufficient reduction in extra early deaths in other vulnerable groups so as the two balance each other out. 

It's a difficult choice for anyone with any sense of responsibility, and I'm glad I'm not the one making decisions about other people's lives and health, especially for those folk who are, for whatever reason, unable to make reasoned decisions for themselves and/or unable to act to protect themselves or others as necessary.


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## Fat Lars (19 Jan 2022)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Two thirds of side effects not caused by Covid vaccine
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/science...eactions-not-caused-by-vaccine-study-suggests


This report is very interesting and worth a read. Although I for one will not be exchanging any friendly or otherwise posts over it.

https://hatchardreport.com/relationship-between-covid-19-vaccination-and-all-cause-mortality/


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## Johnno260 (19 Jan 2022)

Fat Lars said:


> This report is very interesting and worth a read. Although I for one will not be exchanging any friendly or otherwise posts over it.
> 
> https://hatchardreport.com/relationship-between-covid-19-vaccination-and-all-cause-mortality/



Yet all the "affects" are issues with a higher risk from the virus.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (19 Jan 2022)

Fat Lars said:


> This report is very interesting and worth a read. Although I for one will not be exchanging any friendly or otherwise posts over it.
> 
> https://hatchardreport.com/relationship-between-covid-19-vaccination-and-all-cause-mortality/



A website domain registered a month ago by someone who wishes to remain anonymous and the contact is Iceland. Hmmmmmm


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## Fat Lars (19 Jan 2022)

There is none so blind as those that will not see. Attempting to discredit the messenger is not a valid point of view that has any merit at all. 
It is what it is.


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## classic33 (19 Jan 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> Unfortunately, I think that in certain vulnerable groups - and especially the mentally ill/those with psychiatric/psychological problems - some continuing restrictions are themselves causing, or at least contributing to, extra early deaths. Some of those extra deaths might have been considered 'inevitable/unavoidable' (not 'acceptable' as such but ...) at the height of the pandemic - but are they, _now_?
> 
> And how do we classify what are 'scientific' concerns? What is science? As a physicist, I tend towards having quite a narrow viewpoint about what science is ... LOL! Some people insist that economics and sociology are sciences ... and that psychology is not.
> 
> ...


The biggest "danger" at present, my opinion only, is that routine appointments have yet to restart. I've not seen a doctor or specialist since October 19. Blood tests have been missed, as have scans/tests that were scheduled in before all this started. One operation cancelled very early on, which had an 18 month waiting time.

At present, staff numbers available to do the above aren't available. They may have caught covid, be isolating or they have been diverted elsewhere within the system.

You know what though, I'm one of the lucky ones. I can still moan about what's gone wrong. I'm mobile under my own steam. 
Others haven't been so lucky.


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## KnittyNorah (19 Jan 2022)

Johnno260 said:


> Yet all the "affects" are issues with a higher risk from the virus.


And the author of the linked article, one Dr Hatchard, has a doctorate in psychology from a small _private_ management university in the US. I don't think I'd consider him as a particular expert in anything but convincing people to believe what he says ... LOL!


----------



## vickster (19 Jan 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> And the author of the linked article, one Dr Hatchard, has a doctorate in psychology from a small _private_ management university in the US. I don't think I'd consider him as a particular expert in anything but convincing people to believe what he says ... LOL!


Is he on the previous posted list that was oh so credible?


----------



## KnittyNorah (19 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> The biggest "danger" at present, my opinion only, is that routine appointments have yet to restart. I've not seen a doctor or specialist since October 19. Blood tests have been missed, as have scans/tests that were scheduled in before all this started. One operation cancelled very early on, which had an 18 month waiting time.
> 
> At present, staff numbers available to do the above aren't available. They may have caught covid, be isolating or they have been diverted elsewhere within the system.
> 
> ...


Yes, that is indeed an ever-present and continuing danger to many, many people. Late first diagnosis, late detection of progression and even later intervention, in all sorts of conditions.


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## KnittyNorah (19 Jan 2022)

vickster said:


> Is he on the previous posted list that was oh so credible?


LOL! Don't know, haven't looked! The university concerned seems to be an ayurvedic one.


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## classic33 (19 Jan 2022)

Fat Lars said:


> There is none so blind as those that will not see. Attempting to discredit the messenger is not a valid point of view that has any merit at all.
> It is what it is.


And parts are out of date, Pfizer have had FDA approval since August last year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58309254

That piece was written only a month ago.


_"Dr Guy Hatchard is an international advocate of food safety and natural Medicine. He received his undergraduate degree in Logic and Theoretical Physics from the University of Sussex and his PhD in Psychology from Maharishi University of Management, Fairfield Iowa."_


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## Alex321 (19 Jan 2022)

Fat Lars said:


> There is none so blind as those that will not see. Attempting to discredit the messenger is not a valid point of view that has any merit at all.
> It is what it is.


And what it is, is rubbish.


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## Ming the Merciless (19 Jan 2022)

Fat Lars said:


> There is none so blind as those that will not see. Attempting to discredit the messenger is not a valid point of view that has any merit at all.
> It is what it is.



If he were a messenger he’d provide links to official New Zealand government website with their response. All I can see is a Hatchard job. I could register a website tomorrow and claim all sorts of stuff. Doesn’t make me a messenger or anything I claim true, unless I can back it up with the source. He fails to do that in oh so many ways.


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## cougie uk (19 Jan 2022)

Er why would we be getting rid of masks again with 435 deaths yesterday ?
Hospitals don't think we've seen the peak yet.

Any bets on when the next wave will hit us ?


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## KnittyNorah (19 Jan 2022)

To be fair, deaths will _always_ be the last thing to rise - always later, and sometimes much later, than rises in infections and hospitalisations. People're usually in hospital for quite some time before they die. 
So it's at least conceivable that deaths could continue at quite a high rate after new infections have fallen off a cliff. 
Cynic that I am, though, I too believe that this lifting of restrictions so soon and so quickly is in very large part an attempt at deflection.


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## Dogtrousers (19 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> The biggest "danger" at present, my opinion only, is that routine appointments have yet to restart. I've not seen a doctor or specialist since October 19. Blood tests have been missed, as have scans/tests that were scheduled in before all this started. One operation cancelled very early on, which had an 18 month waiting time.
> 
> At present, staff numbers available to do the above aren't available. They may have caught covid, be isolating or they have been diverted elsewhere within the system.
> 
> ...


I was remarkably lucky early in '21.

I had a problem that required me to have a whole battery of diagnostic tests, see a specialist, more tests and speak to my GP. This took several days, mid lockdown*, and it all went really efficiently.

* I think. I'm not sure what the prevailing restrictions were at the time.


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## Fat Lars (19 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> And what it is, is rubbish.


There's nothing like a witty incisive well thought out remark like that to lift one's spirits and make one's day. Great. Isn't Life Great.


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## Rusty Nails (19 Jan 2022)

Dogtrousers said:


> I was remarkably lucky early in '21.
> 
> I had a problem that required me to have a whole battery of diagnostic tests, see a specialist, more tests and speak to my GP. This took several days, mid lockdown*, and it all went really efficiently.
> 
> * I think. I'm not sure what the prevailing restrictions were at the time.


It's fair to say that the NHS is still doing its best to function despite the undoubted difficulties caused by Covid.
Since the pandemic started I have managed to be diagnosed with cancer, diagnosed with high blood pressure and had a heart pacemaker fitted. I have just had tests for suspicious growths on my spine..luckily not serious.


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## ColinJ (19 Jan 2022)

Rusty Nails said:


> Since the pandemic started I have managed to be diagnosed with cancer, diagnosed with high blood pressure and had a heart pacemaker fitted. I have just had tests for suspicious growths on my spine..luckily not serious.


But apart from that lot, you're okay, right...? 




Seriously though... I'm sorry to hear it. I hope the various treatments go as well as they can!


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## KnittyNorah (19 Jan 2022)

Yep, right at the beginning of all this - I had my first consult with my wonderful surgeon on Thursday 19th March just before the first lockdown - I was going through the process of some very complex eye surgery. Here in the NW of England we were effectively in lockdown for months; I will never forget the day I went for my first surgery and the M6 was such an easy, pleasant drive with only essential traffic using it. 
When I came out of the Eye Hospital after the first surgery (I had almost instantaneous - but short-lived - good eyesight, albeit at a 45 deg angle to the vertical, in the operated eye for about 45 minutes after surgery) I was _amazed _at how empty, totally empty, the streets of Manchester were ... 
Within a week or so I had decent vision in the operated eye and the emptiness of the skies, the lack of contrails, the bird and wildlife - everything amazed me. And after just a few months and a few more surgeries I was 'all done' with only a very close watch needing to be kept on my eyesight for some months more. 
Kudos to the NHS! This was all before there was enough PPE, little-to-no testing available and well before there was even a word of a vaccination; essential hospital staff were staying in hotels to keep vulnerable family members at home safe from the possibility of their carrying infection home. I had _wonderful_ treatment. I doubt it could have been any better at any date.


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## mjr (19 Jan 2022)

Dogtrousers said:


> I was remarkably lucky early in '21.
> 
> I had a problem that required me to have a whole battery of diagnostic tests, see a specialist, more tests and speak to my GP. This took several days, mid lockdown*, and it all went really efficiently.


Yes, remarkably lucky. Please send some of that luck over here. I've just had yet another hospital reject a referral (before this, I didn't realise they could reject legitimate funded referrals if they had listed themselves as open on whatever Choose-and-Book is now called) so the only options now open to me have both declared critical emergencies. We're retrying the hospital that previously said it was too busy to treat me, as it's just had some money allocated for backlog-busting. I would have to check my notes but I think I've been waiting even for diagnostic tests since some time in '20 and my GP says I may be setting some sort of waiting time record for his practice. 

The NHS in East Anglia looks to be in bits, frazzled after a tough year. Relaxing the remaining minor restrictions will increase its workload and that seems like a bad move. And if the time I'm spending every day treating an extra illness is replicated for even half the 6 million on waiting lists in England, plus people like me who haven't even got a waiting list place at the moment, that lost time must be harming the farking economy... but maybe all the meds and palliatives we're buying until treated outweigh that, or they hope some can go private and pay more(!)


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## shep (19 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Yes, remarkably lucky. Please send some of that luck over here. I've just had yet another hospital reject a referral (before this, I didn't realise they could reject legitimate funded referrals if they had listed themselves as open on whatever Choose-and-Book is now called) so the only options now open to me have both declared critical emergencies. We're retrying the hospital that previously said it was too busy to treat me, as it's just had some money allocated for backlog-busting. I would have to check my notes but I think I've been waiting even for diagnostic tests since some time in '20 and my GP says I may be setting some sort of waiting time record for his practice.
> 
> The NHS in East Anglia looks to be in bits, frazzled after a tough year. Relaxing the remaining minor restrictions will increase its workload and that seems like a bad move. And if the time I'm spending every day treating an extra illness is replicated for even half the 6 million on waiting lists in England, plus people like me who haven't even got a waiting list place at the moment, that lost time must be harming the farking economy... but maybe all the meds and palliatives we're buying until treated outweigh that, or they hope some can go private and pay more(!)


You lot must be unlucky,In the last 12 months I've had countless blood's taken, numerous hospital visits including a chest x-ray and a camera investigation and I'm about to undergo intravenous treatment which will be 3x4hr visits over the next 6 weeks, all due to an inflammatory bowel condition.
On top of that I'm in need of a 2nd knee replacement that's scheduled in for this year.
I did pay privately for the knee consultation in November but the X-rays (January) and final operation will be on the NHS.

A friend of mine is also scheduled in for a hip transplant in 3 mths time, she saw her consultant in December.


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## classic33 (19 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> You lot must be unlucky,In the last 12 months I've had countless blood's taken, numerous hospital visits including a chest x-ray and a camera investigation and I'm about to undergo intravenous treatment which will be 3x4hr visits over the next 6 weeks, all due to an inflammatory bowel condition.
> On top of that I'm in need of a 2nd knee replacement that's scheduled in for this year.
> I did pay privately for the knee consultation in November but the X-rays (January) and final operation will be on the NHS.
> 
> A friend of mine is also scheduled in for a hip transplant in 3 mths time, she saw her consultant in December.


I'm luckier than one doctor I was seeing/been seen by. Their name appeared amongst the list of hospital staff who died from covid-19.


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## mjr (19 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> You lot must be unlucky,In the last 12 months I've [...]


I've had bloods taken but that's done at the village surgery. Has Wolverhampton's Hospital declared a critical emergency? If not, it's probably in better shape than those here. I wonder if it's accepting referrals from Norfolk, or if it's doing the same as a certain London hospital and rejecting things from postcodes it doesn't recognise with a message of "refer closer to home address" even when you've spoken on the telephone. That's one way to keep your waiting list short!


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## Milzy (19 Jan 2022)

The government are easing restrictions too early.


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## Rusty Nails (19 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> You lot must be unlucky,In the last 12 months I've had countless blood's taken, numerous hospital visits including a chest x-ray and a camera investigation and I'm about to undergo intravenous treatment which will be 3x4hr visits over the next 6 weeks, all due to an inflammatory bowel condition.
> On top of that I'm in need of a 2nd knee replacement that's scheduled in for this year.
> I did pay privately for the knee consultation in November but the X-rays (January) and final operation will be on the NHS.
> 
> A friend of mine is also scheduled in for a hip transplant in 3 mths time, she saw her consultant in December.


One of the problems is consistency. I've been treated OK but a friend of mine who was due to start radiotherapy for prostate cancer in a couple of weeks has just been told it will have to be put back for up to two months because of staff shortages and the backlog.
My cousin was due to have a knee replacement next week, after an increasingly painful four year wait, but she has just been told it will have to be delayed for two weeks.
Both of them in different hospitals to each other and to me.
Not all hospitals and trusts are facing the same issues at exactly the same time, but the problems are still there and genuine.


----------



## pawl (19 Jan 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> To be fair, deaths will _always_ be the last thing to rise - always later, and sometimes much later, than rises in infections and hospitalisations. People're usually in hospital for quite some time before they die.
> So it's at least conceivable that deaths could continue at quite a high rate after new infections have fallen off a cliff.
> Cynic that I am, though, I too believe that this lifting of restrictions so soon and so quickly is in very large part an attempt at deflection.







And come March if not before we will not have to self isolate if i am reading the report correctly if we have Covid Seems somewhat odd decision


----------



## fossyant (19 Jan 2022)

Milzy said:


> The government are easing restrictions too early.


Quite, caught us all out. I'll be back in work Feb, not next week as the car needs a MOT on thursday, one of my work days.... but I'd booked in as at home... fortunately work is OK with this.


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## Johnno260 (20 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> You lot must be unlucky,In the last 12 months I've had countless blood's taken, numerous hospital visits including a chest x-ray and a camera investigation and I'm about to undergo intravenous treatment which will be 3x4hr visits over the next 6 weeks, all due to an inflammatory bowel condition.
> On top of that I'm in need of a 2nd knee replacement that's scheduled in for this year.
> I did pay privately for the knee consultation in November but the X-rays (January) and final operation will be on the NHS.
> 
> A friend of mine is also scheduled in for a hip transplant in 3 mths time, she saw her consultant in December.



It may depend on the region people live in, I have been lucky and not needed to see a GP during the pandemic, but I needed to speak with one recently and that’s been relatively quick.

My daughter had a cardio issue pre pandemic and she only had the holter monitor relatively recently, and we are still waiting for another follow up appointment for that.


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## shep (20 Jan 2022)

Johnno260 said:


> It may depend on the region people live in, I have been lucky and not needed to see a GP during the pandemic, but I needed to speak with one recently and that’s been relatively quick.
> 
> My daughter had a cardio issue pre pandemic and she only had the holter monitor relatively recently, and we are still waiting for another follow up appointment for that.


GP's are another matter entirely, I couldn't get to see one at all and even got a referral to see the Consultant (which I paid for) following a phone interview which was ridiculous. This was for my knee.

I'm lucky that we have a dedicated IBD helpline which respond within 24hrs of calling them which then instigates any further treatment which may be required.

We've been fortunate it seems.


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## PK99 (20 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> GP's are another matter entirely, I couldn't get to see one at all and even got a referral to see the Consultant (which I paid for)* following a phone interview which was ridiculous.* This was for my knee.



Not at all ridiculous IMHO. From my experience of knee and hand issues long pre-pandemic, even in face to face issues referral to an Authropod was based wholly on my verbal description of symptoms and Q&A with the GP, not physical examination.

If I want a hands-on diagnosis for a muscle or joint issue a sports physio is my first port of call.


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## vickster (20 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> GP's are another matter entirely, I couldn't get to see one at all and even got a referral to see the Consultant (which I paid for) following a phone interview which was ridiculous. This was for my knee.


Not really given you were paying to see the Consultant (the referral pretty much a formality) and clearly have a long standing history of arthritic knees given you’ve already had a TKR and presumably already had a history of arthritis issues too related to the second knee too.
It sounds like you weren’t looking for the GP to provide anything beyond a referral letter so why did you need a face to face appointment?


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## vickster (20 Jan 2022)

PK99 said:


> Not at all ridiculous IMHO. From my experience of knee and hand issues long pre-pandemic, even in face to face issues referral to an *Authropod *was based wholly on my verbal description of symptoms and Q&A with the GP, not physical examination.
> 
> If I want a hands-on diagnosis for a muscle or joint issue a sports physio is my first port of call.


Isn’t that some sort of insect?  (Orthopod is the affectionate term for an orthopaedic surgeon)


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## Ajax Bay (20 Jan 2022)

Pulling this across from the 'how are we doing' thread


Johnno260 said:


> the ZOE study said the same


Thought I'd just paste in what I think is the relevant text in that (NB Oct 2021, pre-Omicron so %ages now not as good):

"We know that it’s possible to be reinfected with COVID-19 after either vaccination or natural infection. Our data shows that two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine give 71% protection against infection, while two doses of the Pfizer vaccine provide 87% protection.
"By contrast, an unvaccinated person with a previous COVID infection has only 65% protection against catching it again, clearly shown that if considered separately - vaccines offer greater protection against COVID-19 than natural antibodies
"However, we also found that being double vaccinated on top of having previously had COVID-19 actually provided an extra protection boost. "


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## shep (20 Jan 2022)

PK99 said:


> Not at all ridiculous IMHO. From my experience of knee and hand issues long pre-pandemic, even in face to face issues referral to an Authropod was based wholly on my verbal description of symptoms and Q&A with the GP, not physical examination.
> 
> If I want a hands-on diagnosis for a muscle or joint issue a sports physio is my first port of call.


I'll tell you why it's ridiculous, in my case anyway, bear with this if you can.

2 and a half yrs ago I needed a knee replacement on my Left leg (this was due to a Motorcycle accident 30yrs previously) I saw the GP and got referred privately to see a Consultant which resulted in a Total Knee Replacement on the NHS, happy days.

Previous to this I had a Cartilage repair on my Right Knee and was told that the inner surface was almost bone on bone, the knee was also very 'crunchy' for want of a better description. 

Late last year I felt it was now time to address my Right knee knowing full well what the damage was so attempted to repeat the referral process I had previously followed, but not now.

I explained in no uncertain terms my previous history Inc all treatment, ops and the 'crunchy ' feeling on bending so therefore felt it was very similar symptoms to the other knee. 

I also informed him I wanted referring privately to the same Consultant as before as I have built a certain rapport over the years. 

2 weeks later I receive a call from a private physio team that are being used by the NHS for referrals offering me an appointment?

Seems after everything I said the GP saw fit to ignore what I had told him and send me to Physio. 

Following a call to the GP and my eventual referral I'm now booked in for my Knee replacement opp.

So, In MY Opinion sending someone to physio when they clearly need a knee replacement is the wrong decision and if he had seen, felt and heard my knee he would have known it wasn't muscular. 

Pretty cool story eh? Bro.


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## vickster (20 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> I'll tell you why it's ridiculous, in my case anyway, bear with this if you can.
> 
> 2 and a half yrs ago I needed a knee replacement on my Left leg (this was due to a Motorcycle accident 30yrs previously) I saw the GP and got referred privately to see a Consultant which resulted in a Total Knee Replacement on the NHS, happy days.
> 
> ...


Did you actually need a referral to the same surgeon, did you check first with the secretary (private HC companies need a referral from a GP before they’ll fund but if self paying that often isn’t the case)?
I took my mum for a private consult for her hip, no referral needed. I just asked the surgeon’s secretary if she could get the NHS X-ray in advance of the appointment.

The NHS has a set treatment pathway for many ortho issues, usually starting with physio. That’s what the GP was following (physio can also be effective for OA pain).

Anyhow this is somewhat off topic on a Covid thread


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## shep (20 Jan 2022)

vickster said:


> Did you actually need a referral to the same surgeon, did you check first with the secretary (private HC companies need a referral from a GP before they’ll fund but if self paying that often isn’t the case)?
> 
> The NHS has a set treatment pathway for many ortho issues, usually starting with physio. That’s what the GP was following (physio can also be effective for OA pain).
> 
> Anyhow this is somewhat off topic on a Covid thread


As stated I wanted to see the same Consultant as he's operated on me twice before and as I was paying I feel I should be able to.

The GP either chose to ignore this fact or just didn't listen?

I understand the Physio referral option but my point is if he had seen me in person he would have known it wasn't muscular but the worst part is if I wasn't paying then how much longer and how much wasted money would it have taken to eventually see a consultant?


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## vickster (20 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> As stated I wanted to see the same Consultant as he's operated on me twice before and as I was paying I feel I should be able to.
> 
> The GP either chose to ignore this fact or just didn't listen?
> 
> I understand the Physio referral option but my point is if he had seen me in person he would have known it wasn't muscular but the worst part is if I wasn't paying then how much longer and how much wasted money would it have taken to eventually see a consultant?


What I mean is if you’ve see the Consultant before and are self paying, I’m surprised you needed a formal GP referral. A call to his secretary or the hospital should have been sufficient. GP referral is needed for NHS specialist consult, not usually private (unless requested by the likes of Bupa who are paying, in fact for Bupa a quick call with one of the private Babylon GPs is sufficient, no need to see an NHS GP anymore).

Physios don’t just deal with muscular injuries


----------



## shep (20 Jan 2022)

vickster said:


> What I mean is if you’ve see the Consultant before and are self paying, I’m surprised you needed a formal GP referral. A call to his secretary or the hospital should have been sufficient. GP referral is needed for NHS specialist consult, not usually private (unless requested by the likes of Bupa who are paying, in fact for Bupa a quick call with one of the private Babylon GPs is sufficient, no need to see an NHS GP anymore).
> 
> Physios don’t just deal with muscular injuries


I've had a few ops completely private and 2 where I've just paid for the consultation, on every occasion I've needed a letter from the GP to the Consultants secretary.

You still seem to be missing my point, I clearly need a knee replacement but the GP sent me to physio rather than a Surgeon because he spoke to me over the phone rather than seeing me in person, you do get this don't you?


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## Alex321 (20 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> I've had a few ops completely private and 2 where I've just paid for the consultation, on every occasion I've needed a letter from the GP to the Consultants secretary.
> 
> You still seem to be missing my point, I clearly need a knee replacement but the GP sent me to physio rather than a Surgeon because he spoke to me over the phone rather than seeing me in person, you do get this don't you?


Well no, she doesn't "get this" because even if the GP had seen you in person, you would still have been sent to the physio first, because that is current NHS "procedure".


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## shep (20 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> Well no, she doesn't "get this" because even if the GP had seen you in person, you would still have been sent to the physio first, because that is current NHS "procedure".


Good job I can afford to pay for a Consultation then isn't it?

Think of all that money I've saved the NHS.


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## shep (20 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> even if the GP had seen you in person, you would still have been sent to the physio first, because that is current NHS "procedure".


You know this how exactly?


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## vickster (20 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> I've had a few ops completely private and 2 where I've just paid for the consultation, on every occasion I've needed a letter from the GP to the Consultants secretary.


OK, must be a different process for that particular consultant then


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## Alex321 (20 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> Good job I can afford to pay for a Consultation then isn't it?
> 
> Think of all that money I've saved the NHS.


Indeed.

I think they have found so many cases that could be fixed by physio rather than surgery that they just decided all joint issues should be checked by physio first before sending them to (expensive) orthopaedic consultants, even when it should be obvious surgery is needed.

I had a very similar situation (but without your back history) in 2018, when a piece of cartilage in my left knee dislodged and stuck, meaning I couldn't straighten that leg anywhere near normal. It was absolutely obviously not muscular, but the GP (in a face to face appointment) still referred me to the physio first.

In my case, the physio said they would refer me (duh!), but it would be a few weeks at least. This being end of September. I decided it was impacting me too much and couldn't wait that long, so decided to go private. Had consultation a week after contacting the Spire hospital, and surgery two weeks later (would have been a week, but the surgeon was on holiday), followed by a few weeks of physio. Was back to Morris dancing last week of October, and got the letter from the NHS giving me a consultant appointment late December a week or two after that (which I contacted them and cancelled, obviously).


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## Alex321 (20 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> You know this how exactly?


I was writing out the post above when you posted this.

I know because it is what my GP told me when referring me to the physio. He basically said "It doesn't look like physio will fix this, but the physio has to be the one to say so before I can refer you to orthopaedics".


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## Alex321 (20 Jan 2022)

vickster said:


> OK, must be a different process for that particular consultant then


Yes, I didn't need a anything from the NHS when I went to Spire. I might have needed one if it had been insurance based, but it wasn't, I was self-funding it.


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## mjr (20 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> You know this how exactly?


NHS procedure is often published on the NICE website, called Clinical Guidance, or the CCG websites, called Clinical Guidelines, Formularies and TAG (which I forget what the abbreviation expands to).

One of you should be able to point at the procedure saying you must go to physio first or not. If it's set by CCG, it will only apply to some areas.


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## Alex321 (20 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> NHS procedure is often published on the NICE website, called Clinical Guidance, or the CCG websites, called Clinical Guidelines, Formularies and TAG (which I forget what the abbreviation expands to).
> 
> One of you should be able to point at the procedure saying you must go to physio first or not. If it's set by CCG, it will only apply to some areas.


I don';t know about that. I'm going by what my GP told me, when referring me (in Wales if that makes any difference).


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## midlife (20 Jan 2022)

Just curious, you pay to see a consultant privately to avoid the long NHS wait and then have the operation on the NHS by the same consultant ?


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## Rusty Nails (20 Jan 2022)

midlife said:


> Just curious, you pay to see a consultant privately to avoid the long NHS wait and then have the operation on the NHS by the same consultant ?


That has been going on for years.


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## vickster (20 Jan 2022)

midlife said:


> Just curious, you pay to see a consultant privately to avoid the long NHS wait and then have the operation on the NHS by the same consultant ?


I never have but as above it can be the case (although I believe there is no guarantee on which SPR/Consultant will actually do the surgery or that the surgery will be any sooner). Going private does not stop a patient re-joining the NHS system/queue as they do not lose any entitlement to NHS treatment assuming they're eligible in the first place!
I don't know if @shep is paying for his TKRs


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## shep (20 Jan 2022)

midlife said:


> Just curious, you pay to see a consultant privately to avoid the long NHS wait and then have the operation on the NHS by the same consultant ?


Absolutely, £190 for the consultation, once referred by your GP, then any following treatment is NHS funded.

Benefit being you choose your own Surgeon and skip the 18 week wait, if however you don't require surgery you could argue it's wasted money but I knew I did. 

Done it twice now.


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## shep (20 Jan 2022)

vickster said:


> I never have but as above it can be the case (although I believe there is no guarantee on which SPR/Consultant will actually do the surgery or that the surgery will be any sooner). Going private does not stop a patient re-joining the NHS system/queue as they do not lose any entitlement to NHS treatment assuming they're eligible in the first place!
> I don't know if @shep is paying for his TKRs


Exactly this, it is guaranteed who you see because you ask them to refer you to whoever you want.

You then contact the private Hospital in question, Nuffield in my case, they then await the referral from GP and you arrange your appointment.

When you see chosen Consultant you explain from this point on everything else will be on the NHS.

Surgery is no quicker as I waited 5 months last time and have been estimated 6 months this time, the advantage is you pick your Consultant and don't wait in the queue to see him/her.

Simples.


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## shep (20 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> (in Wales if that makes any difference).


And here lies a possible difference in experience yet you felt the need to make out I was wrong?

You have no more knowledge of what NHS procedures are where I live than I do but seem to think I'm wrong?

As is normal on here can you please provide evidence that if someone saw a GP in Wolverhampton with a clear need for surgery that he would be referred to 3rd party physiotherapy instead of being referred to a Consultant. 

This was my point in the first place, phone consultations are not always the best, it wasn't even you I was answering?


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## vickster (20 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> As is normal on here can you please provide evidence that if someone saw a GP in Wolverhampton with a clear need for surgery that he would be referred to 3rd party physiotherapy instead of being referred to a Consultant.


This explains the pathway in Wolverhampton
https://wolverhamptonccg.nhs.uk/images/WIMS_FAQ_Final.pdf
If not acute/urgent rheumatological condition, patients will go into this Wolverhampton Integrated MSK Service (WIMS) pathway - first stop is an MSK AAP it seems (a physio not an orthopaedic surgeon) who then assesses for onward referrals to secondary care.

Enjoy


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## Ajax Bay (20 Jan 2022)

Meanwhile, back on topic
I thought this recently reported research interesting
*Nocebo responses explain up to 76% of COVID vaccine (systemic) side effects*

Some vaccine side effects are very real, but many may be anxiety and mis-attribution.
The harmless interventions (ie faux vaccines in the control half of a trial) can lead people to report harmful side effects, particularly when people are expecting such side effects. Researchers have coined these phantom adverse reactions "nocebo responses." Nocebo responses are thought to stem from expectations of side effects, anxiety-induced effects, and the mistaken attribution of common, non-specific ailments, like headaches, to the placebo.

This Harvard study quantified just how big a role they played: it used meta-analysis (18 Jan JAMA Network Open). It looked at vaccine side-effect data from the many clinical trials. It concluded that nocebo responses accounted for 76% of systemic adverse reactions—like headache, fever, and chills—after the first vaccine dose and 52% of systemic reactions after the second vaccine dose.

There was a clear difference in the local (eg upper arm) side effects. Only 16% of placebo recipients reported local side effects, like pain or swelling at the injection site, while 67% of the vaccine group reported such effects.

Overall the nocebo response rate clearly seems to be skewing our experience with COVID-19 vaccines: the researchers argue that highlighting the potential for nocebo responses could reduce side effects and help improve vaccine uptake.


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## classic33 (20 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Meanwhile, back on topic
> I thought this recently reported research interesting
> *Nocebo responses explain up to 76% of COVID vaccine (systemic) side effects*
> 
> ...


That'd be the same for most medications, they all have listed side effects which many don't even think about. The added disadvantage this time has been the larger publicity given to the vaccines and potential side effects of each of them.

Maybe people will cut down on the the amount of over the counter medications, if they start checking the possible side effects.


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## Ajax Bay (20 Jan 2022)

Given that mandated mask wearing is over in UK (except in settings where the authority dictates otherwise), this Planck paper added to my understanding of the facts. [Precised] I shall continue to wear my FFP2 mask in sustained proximity in enclosed circumstances near people I don't know, bolstered by the knowledge that it has value (to me and another).
Significance: It is not clear how exactly the risk of infection is affected by wearing a mask during close personal encounters or by social distancing without a mask. Our results show that face masks significantly reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to social distancing. We find a very low risk of infection when everyone wears a face mask, even if it doesn’t fit perfectly on the face.
Abstract: There is ample evidence that masking and social distancing are effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To calculate exposure and infection risk, we use a comprehensive database on respiratory particle size distribution; exhalation flow physics; leakage from face masks of various types and fits measured on human subjects; and rehydration, inhalability, and deposition in nose/mouth.
For a typical SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectious dose between two speaking individuals:

social distancing alone (no masks), even at a distant 3m, leads to 90% risk of infection after a few minutes
if susceptible wears a face mask with infectious speaking at a distance of 1.5m
with a surgical mask, the upper bound only reaches 90% after 30 min
with an FFP2 mask, it remains at about 20% even after 1 hour.
both wear a surgical mask, while the infectious is speaking, risk remains below 30% after 1 hour
when both wear a well-fitting FFP2 mask, it is 0.4%.
We conclude that wearing appropriate masks in the community provides excellent protection for others and oneself, and makes social distancing less important.


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## Alex321 (20 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Given that mandated mask wearing is over in UK (except in settings where the authority dictates otherwise), this Planck paper added to my understanding of the facts.


Not in the UK, only in England.

Masks are still required in various places in other parts of the UK.

Though it possibly will be in Wales after next Friday (haven't checked what changes in rules are coming in Scotland or NI).
[EDIT]
Nope, will still be required after next week. Earliest mask mandate *may* be lifted in Wales is now the next review on 11th February.


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## Seevio (21 Jan 2022)

As the virus becomes more and more widespread, the death within 28 days of a positive diagnosis becomes more and more meaningless. In the extreme example, if everybody caught covid and survived, then almost every death would be recorded as a death within 28 days.

While I haven't seen figures to show deaths caused as a result of covid, as opposed to with covid, there is this that shows a remarkably low number of deaths due to covid with no other co-morbidities. Most of these deaths were in 2020 prior to mass vaccination and when deadlier strains were predominant. Again, this does not include people who were ill with other stuff where covid tipped them over the edge.

With the omicron variant appearing to be pretty much weak-sauce but still providing immunity to other variants, it may be wrong to pretend we can limit the spread and instead concentrate on treating those who have life threatening illness.

I'm going to regret posting this in the morning.


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## shep (21 Jan 2022)

vickster said:


> This explains the pathway in Wolverhampton
> https://wolverhamptonccg.nhs.uk/images/WIMS_FAQ_Final.pdf
> If not acute/urgent rheumatological condition, patients will go into this Wolverhampton Integrated MSK Service (WIMS) pathway - first stop is an MSK AAP it seems (a physio not an orthopaedic surgeon) who then assesses for onward referrals to secondary care.
> 
> Enjoy


Thank you, glad I didn't have to follow that route then.😉.


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## vickster (21 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> Thank you, glad I didn't have to follow that route then.😉.


Indeed, but now you know your referral to physio had nothing to do with having a phone rather than face to face appointment


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## shep (21 Jan 2022)

vickster said:


> Indeed, but now you know your referral to physio had nothing to do with having a phone rather than face to face appointment


It did because he didn't listen to what I told him, I was going 'private ', for the consultation only. 

It's still a poor approach in my opinion because I clearly need an opp but time and money would have been wasted on Physio. 
Oh well, no consequence to me really and just reinforces the route taken was the best. 

Cheers anyway.


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## cougie uk (21 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> I'm luckier than one doctor I was seeing/been seen by. Their name appeared amongst the list of hospital staff who died from covid-19.


God that's awful. And Johnson claims that they had it tough sitting around in offices.


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## cougie uk (21 Jan 2022)

Seevio said:


> As the virus becomes more and more widespread, the death within 28 days of a positive diagnosis becomes more and more meaningless. In the extreme example, if everybody caught covid and survived, then almost every death would be recorded as a death within 28 days.
> 
> While I haven't seen figures to show deaths caused as a result of covid, as opposed to with covid, there is this that shows a remarkably low number of deaths due to covid with no other co-morbidities. Most of these deaths were in 2020 prior to mass vaccination and when deadlier strains were predominant. Again, this does not include people who were ill with other stuff where covid tipped them over the edge.
> 
> ...


It is not correct to call it weak. 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/how-mild-is-omicron-really-69610


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## fossyant (21 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> That'd be the same for most medications, they all have listed side effects which many don't even think about. The added disadvantage this time has been the larger publicity given to the vaccines and potential side effects of each of them.
> 
> Maybe people will cut down on the the amount of over the counter medications, if they start checking the possible side effects.



This - folk really don't look at side effects of meds and then cause all this fuss about a vaccine. Other meds are far far worse. I've had some pain meds in the past (usually for 'other conditions' but their side effects block nerve pain). Let's say I gave them a go, but the side effects weren't worth the benefit from reduced pain. 

Like with everything, it's a balance.


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## mjr (21 Jan 2022)

Seevio said:


> As the virus becomes more and more widespread, the death within 28 days of a positive diagnosis becomes more and more meaningless. In the extreme example, if everybody caught covid and survived, then almost every death would be recorded as a death within 28 days.


Only if everyone caught covid at the same time, which is more than extreme: it's practically impossible, due to random chance (see the second of 2021's Royal Institute Christmas Lectures by Professor Van Tam) and infection-based immunity lasting more than 28 days.



> While I haven't seen figures to show deaths caused as a result of covid, as opposed to with covid,


The figures for deaths with covid as an underlying cause, compared to deaths with covid merely mentioned, are published by the ONS so why haven't you seen them? They're far easier to find than that FOI request response (or at least they were before the antivaxxers started search-engine-optimising that FOI response). "COVID-19 was the underlying cause of majority of deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate in December"



> there is this that shows a remarkably low number of deaths due to covid with no other co-morbidities. Most of these deaths were in 2020 prior to mass vaccination and when deadlier strains were predominant. Again, this does not include people who were ill with other stuff where covid tipped them over the edge.


As covered previously: having another illness does not make these people whose deaths should be dismissed lightly, some of them will not have known of their comorbidities before catching covid and some of the comorbidities may have been triggered by covid, amongst other things. We know from other data that many of these were not people who were expected to die any time soon and the average shortening of life was something like 10 years IIRC.



> With the omicron variant appearing to be pretty much weak-sauce but still providing immunity to other variants, it may be wrong to pretend we can limit the spread and instead concentrate on treating those who have life threatening illness.


The evidence is strong that we can limit the spread with various measures, so I do not understand your use of "pretend" there. Do you believe that omicron can jump through FFP3 masks and nonsense like that suggested by Piers Corbyn & others?

I can see a sort of logic to those who argue that some measures aren't effective enough to be worth their cost, but I really do not understand people who claim no measures work at all.

What does "concentrate on treating those who have life threatening illness" mean there? Is it suggesting that people put in ICU with omicron (a smaller % of a bigger number of cases) are not having their lives threatened, or should be lower in triage than other illnesses?

It may also be very wrong to embrace omicron: it may be less lethal in the early stages, but it's still too early to tell what risk of long-covid is posed by it. We might be melting a path through a snowdrift only to be hit by an avalanche later.



> I'm going to regret posting this in the morning.


How about now?


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## mjr (21 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Meanwhile, back on topic
> I thought this recently reported research interesting
> *Nocebo responses explain up to 76% of COVID vaccine (systemic) side effects* [...]


Because of my past, I am very sceptical of "nocebo" studies. This one seems to avoid many common pitfalls, so its result may be closer to reality than many, but I think two aspects of the methodology seem a bit odd at first glance:

1. it excludes serious adverse events without giving a reason. Maybe it's in the supplements; and

2. it extracts first-dose adverse events and second-dose adverse events from each two-dose trial separately. I strongly suspect that if someone reports an adverse reaction to the first-dose, they are less likely to take a second dose, but I didn't spot this being checked or controlled for. If that suspicion is correct, that makes the drop to only about half of the second-dose adverse event reports being explained by "nocebo effect" even more curious.


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## Illaveago (22 Jan 2022)

It was interesting to hear 2 expert virologists speaking on the Beeb just now .
It seems that working culture will have to change as a result of this virus . Whereas bosses have been forcing people into work with coughs and sneezes and therefore spreading the infection throughout the workforce and throughout the population , sick pay or some other financial support will have to be introduced or supported and the way in which sickness is treated will have to change .


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## mjr (22 Jan 2022)

Illaveago said:


> It seems that working culture will have to change as a result of this virus . Whereas bosses have been forcing people into work with coughs and sneezes and therefore spreading the infection throughout the workforce and throughout the population , sick pay or some other financial support will have to be introduced or supported and the way in which sickness is treated will have to change .


Why will it? Once there is no longer a requirement to quarantine with covid, bad bosses can simply force workers into the office with covid until they collapse, like they do with flu and common colds, and omicron being less severe means fewer will collapse. As long as they can ride out the collapses, their workers will then be more immune for a season and they win. Fark public health, in line with the clear message from the govt.


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## classic33 (22 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Why will it? Once there is no longer a requirement to quarantine with covid, bad bosses can simply force workers into the office with covid until they collapse, like they do with flu and common colds, and omicron being less severe means fewer will collapse. As long as they can ride out the collapses, their workers will then be more immune for a season and they win. Fark public health, in line with the clear message from the govt.


Not all work is office based, and most of those that insist on workers going in aren't office based either.


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## Illaveago (22 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Why will it? Once there is no longer a requirement to quarantine with covid, bad bosses can simply force workers into the office with covid until they collapse, like they do with flu and common colds, and omicron being less severe means fewer will collapse. As long as they can ride out the collapses, their workers will then be more immune for a season and they win. Fark public health, in line with the clear message from the govt.


There are cases of Long Covid which can affect people for a long period after catching the virus . The long term effects of this virus are unknown .
Bosses can play Russian Roulette with their workforce but if they find that their key workers are taken out by the virus then it is up to them , but for the sake of the country's economy it would be better if they allowed workers to take time off if they were I'll .


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## mjr (22 Jan 2022)

Illaveago said:


> Bosses can play Russian Roulette with their workforce but if they find that their key workers are taken out by the virus then it is up to them , but for the sake of the country's economy it would be better if they allowed workers to take time off if they were I'll .


Nah, cheaper to sack the "malingerers" and hire fresh healthy staff, so that's better economics for the business(!) Who cares about in 5 years time? The bosses will have moved on up with their stock options and it'll be somebody else's problem. It's only a call centre / food packery / warehouse and there's enough turnover they're recruiting and onboarding all the time. Also, it means they're doing more training which makes the company look good


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## classic33 (22 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Nah, cheaper to sack the "malingerers" and hire fresh healthy staff, so that's better economics for the business(!) Who cares about in 5 years time? The bosses will have moved on up with their stock options and it'll be somebody else's problem. It's only a call centre / food packery / warehouse and there's enough turnover they're recruiting and onboarding all the time. Also, it means they're doing more training which makes the company look good


And if you're training new staff all the time who is actually doing the everyday work?

I've done the call centre and warehouse work, and between the mandatory health and safety work and induction training, someone had to do the work, before we were let loose.


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## shep (22 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> Not all work is office based, and most of those that insist on workers going in aren't office based either.


Life beyond 'the office '.

Did you sort not go to work if you had a runny nose pre Covid then?


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## classic33 (22 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> Life beyond 'the office '.
> 
> Did you sort not go to work if you had a runny nose pre Covid then?


Suppose the person who is "ill" is handling raw food, day in day out. What happens as that food works it way through the system to your plate.

Pre covid, I was being treated for cancer, and epilepsy, so not at work.

Despite the Equalities Act, there's not many willing to take you on if there's a chance you exit work via an ambulance.


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## shep (23 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> Suppose the person who is "ill" is handling raw food, day in day out. What happens as that food works it way through the system to your plate.
> 
> Pre covid, I was being treated for cancer, and epilepsy, so not at work.
> 
> Despite the Equalities Act, there's not many willing to take you on if there's a chance you exit work via an ambulance.


Sorry, although I quoted yourself I was replying to the 'general audience ' as it does appear people on here somehow forget there are roles that don't always involve a desk and chair.


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## fossyant (23 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> Sorry, although I quoted yourself I was replying to the 'general audience ' as it does appear people on here somehow forget there are roles that don't always involve a desk and chair.



Us desk and chair bunch will most likely be working from home with coughs and sniffles now, but at what point do you sign off actually ill.


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## shep (23 Jan 2022)

1


fossyant said:


> Us desk and chair bunch will most likely be working from home with coughs and sniffles now, but at what point do you sign off actually ill.


Exactly my point really, pre Covid I don't recall ever knowing people being off sick regularly with such mild symptoms.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2022)

Seems to have been Zero additional impact on case rates from university students all flooding back (and socialising). Increased school interaction of 4-11s (none jabbed obv) has meant a mini surge in those cohorts, but such a high proportion will now have had it (with or without symptoms/tests) that we can expect that to 'burn out'. That's had an impact on the 'parent cohort' - all hopefully boosted. That recent jab will reduce the already very low (for under 50s) OR of case > hospitalisation.


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## classic33 (23 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> 1
> 
> Exactly my point really, pre Covid I don't recall ever knowing people being off sick regularly with such mild symptoms.


Thing is though, pre-covid you'd not have been testing yourself for a notifiable disease.

I've not had it, so I can't comment on how it feels. But I do know some who only had a "mild cold" for a month or so, but felt lousy afterwards.


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## winjim (23 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> 1
> 
> Exactly my point really, pre Covid I don't recall ever knowing people being off sick regularly with such mild symptoms.


Come in to my workplace with a cold and you'll get complained at so much by everybody else that you'll want to go home. But that's because we don't want you infecting us, which isn't an issue if you WFH, which I think is the point fossy was making. You're potentially having people work when ordinarily they'd be resting. That could be a good thing or a bad thing I suppose depending on your POV.


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## Alex321 (23 Jan 2022)

winjim said:


> Come in to my workplace with a cold and you'll get complained at so much by everybody else that you'll want to go home. But that's because we don't want you infecting us, which isn't an issue if you WFH, which I think is the point fossy was making. You're potentially having people work when ordinarily they'd be resting. That could be a good thing or a bad thing I suppose depending on your POV.


TBH, I'd ratherbe working with mild cold symptoms, as it is less physically demanding to just sit at a desk all day than do the minkr bits of housework I would otherwise do.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2022)

Weekly update from ONS estimates of the numbers of people who would test positive for the virus (prevalence) on 15 Jan. This is much higher than the cases reported (after testing).
ONS (30 Dec - 5 Jan) = 3M (ave 430k new pd)
gov.uk dashboard = 1.3M (same week)
Conclusion (not new): the confirmed case count reflects less than half of new infections.
Working on actual cases (includes asymptomatic) being double those reported in UK (and NB the amount and quality of the UK's testing and reporting is very good in a 'world' context):

About 11M have been infected since 1 Dec (mix of vaxxed and non-vaxxed and all ages)
UK is running out of people with no antibodies so a high proportion of the population is not susceptible
The transmissibility of the Omicron variant means that, even with the low proportion susceptible, there'll continue to be a steady case rate (has fallen to less than half the peak on NYD) - how much further we don't know: endemic.
Boosted vaccination won't stop one catching it (but reduces risk of any serious illness)
COVID-19 remains a threat to the vulnerable (age and/or comorbidities) particularly if unvaccinated.
I will forego the pub in the three days before each visit to my aged (& boosted - I was 'taxi') mother.

Thought two comments by James Naismith, University of Oxford worth posting:
"Despite the advanced warning from South Africa, almost two years of experience, early imposition of Plan B and existing measures the Omicron wave reached an astounding prevalence in only a few weeks. It did so whilst we were unsure of its severity. Had it been more severe, we would have been in dire straits. Our entire system of pandemic preparedness (from public policy to debate to track /trace and hospital capacity) is not fit for purpose. Omicron should be a flashing red light [and] a blaring klaxon.
"A more honest assessment of NPIs is needed, there was a tendency for these to become politicised and consequently tribalised.”


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## shep (23 Jan 2022)

winjim said:


> Come in to my workplace with a cold and you'll get complained at so much by everybody else that you'll want to go home. But that's because we don't want you infecting us, which isn't an issue if you WFH, which I think is the point fossy was making. You're potentially having people work when ordinarily they'd be resting. That could be a good thing or a bad thing I suppose depending on your POV.


I suppose it depends how bothered people are about getting a runny nose, if one of us are coughing and sneezing you will get "you can f**k off over there with that cold" but as for making people go home I guess it depends on what environment you work in.


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## shep (23 Jan 2022)

fossyant said:


> Us desk and chair bunch will most likely be working from home with coughs and sniffles now, but at what point do you sign off actually ill.


For me personally I've never been 'ill' enough not to go to work, I've been off following surgery but not due to a cold etc. With my job if you're feeling under the weather you can take a turn 'on the ground ' where it's an easier shift for a couple of days. 
You just have to make sure the brew is ready for when the lads come down.


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## classic33 (23 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> For me personally I've never been 'ill' enough not to go to work, I've been off following surgery but not due to a cold etc. With my job if you're feeling under the weather you can take a turn 'on the ground ' where it's an easier shift for a couple of days.
> You just have to make sure the brew is ready for when the lads come down.


A cold, common or otherwise, isn't a notifiable disease like covid though.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2022)

How long will COVID-19 stay 'notifiable', do you think, thobut?
US's CDC estimate case fatality rate (cfr) for seasonal flu as between 0.1 and 0.2%.
Substantial edit: If 3M per week (ONS estimate) were newly infected with Omicron at the peak (1 Jan) in UK and deaths peaked a few days ago (15 Jan ish) at 1800pw that suggest <0.07% Omicron 'real' cfr. Have I got those figures wrong: seem too good to be true? But compare the figures in 2020 flu peak week (second week of Jan) 3000 died "involving influenza and pneumonia".
This time last year the 'peak week' (centred on 19 Jan 2021, one year ago) tragically had 8888 deaths recorded where the deceased had tested positive within 28 days. (1000 more if you go by COVID-19 on the death certificate (either primary or contributory cause.)
I dread to think what it would be like if we were all immunonaive.
Let us hope that Omicron sustains its dominance. Talk about lucky!


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## shep (23 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> A cold, common or otherwise, isn't a notifiable disease like covid though.


I think this is the point, at some stage with symptoms being no worse than a cold people will just need to get on with it.


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## fossyant (23 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> For me personally I've never been 'ill' enough not to go to work, I've been off following surgery but not due to a cold etc. With my job if you're feeling under the weather you can take a turn 'on the ground ' where it's an easier shift for a couple of days.
> You just have to make sure the brew is ready for when the lads come down.



I'm never off unless I've got the real flu and can't get out of bed. I do go in work with coughs, waterfall for a nose etc. We all did. Thing is, these spread like wildfire in offices, be they a/c, nothing, or new fangled 'air circulation' systems. What I'm seein with my Vaxed colleagues is mild cold symptoms, so I'd epect testing to eventually stop. Those non-vaxed are still running the gauntlet with the virus though, they could be that poor bugger that it farks up their immune system. I won't be stopping off work if were all back in with a cold/covid in future (shoud testing and rules change).


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## shep (23 Jan 2022)

fossyant said:


> I'm never off unless I've got the real flu and can't get out of bed. I do go in work with coughs, waterfall for a nose etc. We all did. Thing is, these spread like wildfire in offices, be they a/c, nothing, or new fangled 'air circulation' systems. What I'm seein with my Vaxed colleagues is mild cold symptoms, so I'd epect testing to eventually stop. Those non-vaxed are still running the gauntlet with the virus though, they could be that poor bugger that it farks up their immune system. I won't be stopping off work if were all back in with a cold/covid in future (shoud testing and rules change).


I get that, never really done the office thing thankfully and working from home wouldn't really work in my game so the entire concept is quite alien to me (off work with a cold).

Nobody wants some snotridden geezer sneezing all over you obviously and Covid does make you a bit more aware I suppose.


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## Julia9054 (23 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> TBH, I'd ratherbe working with mild cold symptoms, as it is less physically demanding to just sit at a desk all day than do the minkr bits of housework I would otherwise do.


In teaching, it's far easier going in and struggling through feeling crap than the hassle of setting cover lessons, sending them in (whilst feeling crap) and then chasing your classes up once you go back to make sure they've done the work.


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## mjr (23 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Substantial edit: If 3M per week (ONS estimate) were newly infected with Omicron at the peak (1 Jan) in UK and deaths peaked a few days ago (15 Jan ish) at 1800pw that suggest <0.07% Omicron 'real' cfr.


I humbly suggest that the real case-fatality rate would be the one among the unvaccinated.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Jan 2022)

Good point. Although is the US estimate for flu without the vulnerable population vaccinated? I guess an answer is part vaccinated and wide CI.


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## postman (23 Jan 2022)

Our daughter has it,found out on Thursday morning.She is working from her home,but Friday stayed in bed all day as she felt awful.Now we took her out Wednesday night for a curry not knowing,we have done two tests and another tomorrow and we feel fine.Can't work it out,because I always give her a hug and kiss when we meet up.


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## mjr (23 Jan 2022)

postman said:


> Can't work it out,because I always give her a hug and kiss when we meet up.


It's probabilistic. Nothing is certain. You could have been licking up her snot*, get lucky and still not get infected.

* - don't try this at home. Actually, don't try it anywhere, please.


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## shep (24 Jan 2022)

I know a number of instances now where 1 or 2 members of a household get it but not the rest, I assume being jabbed/boosted is having an effect on this or just lucky?


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## DaveReading (24 Jan 2022)

In that respect (though not in others), it's no different from the common cold.


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## mjr (24 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> I know a number of instances now where 1 or 2 members of a household get it but not the rest, I assume being jabbed/boosted is having an effect on this or just lucky?


Why not both? Vaccination is like stacking the deck. Coming into contact with covid is drawing a card.


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## shep (24 Jan 2022)

mjr said:


> Why not both? Vaccination is like stacking the deck. Coming into contact with covid is drawing a card.


It can be both?


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## Slick (24 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> I know a number of instances now where 1 or 2 members of a household get it but not the rest, I assume being jabbed/boosted is having an effect on this or just lucky?


We must have all seen this now lots of times with the best example being man and wife who share a bed with one contracting it but not the other. I would like to give the vaccine the benefit of the doubt with that one but in true anecdotal style, a friend of mine wife and daughter had it but he didn't. This was pre vaccine and back when all ge needed was a negative PCR to remain out and about. I remember feeling a bit uncomfortable around him for a while but he did follow every rule at the time.


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## MrGrumpy (24 Jan 2022)

Slick said:


> We must have all seen this now lots of times with the best example being man and wife who share a bed with one contracting it but not the other. I would like to give the vaccine the benefit of the doubt with that one but in true anecdotal style, a friend of mine wife and daughter had it but he didn't. This was pre vaccine and back when all ge needed was a negative PCR to remain out and about. I remember feeling a bit uncomfortable around him for a while but he did follow every rule at the time.


Yep one of my neighbours over from me had it, his wife didn’t and neither did his son and daughter-in-law whom he had spent time with either !


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## Ming the Merciless (24 Jan 2022)

Slick said:


> We must have all seen this now lots of times with the best example being man and wife who share a bed with one contracting it but not the other. I would like to give the vaccine the benefit of the doubt with that one but in true anecdotal style, a friend of mine wife and daughter had it but he didn't. This was pre vaccine and back when all ge needed was a negative PCR to remain out and about. I remember feeling a bit uncomfortable around him for a while but he did follow every rule at the time.



Nothing new I’m sure we’ve all seen this over the decades with different infectious diseases. We don’t all have a one size fits all immune system.


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## mjr (24 Jan 2022)

Slick said:


> This was pre vaccine


Which means also definitely pre-omicron, which is more infectious than delta, which is far more infectious than alpha and original. Was it pre-delta, even?


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## Ajax Bay (24 Jan 2022)

The 'with' or 'of' conundrum
Oct 20: +ve = x50 more likely to die than their all cause mortality;
Dec 20 onwards (progressively): vaccination reduced this to ~x10 by Jul 21 (Delta)
Now: Omicron down to ~5x.






All ONS or gov.uk dashboard data. Unrelated = 2015-2019 average: demographic data (England & Wales) giving how many of those people would be expected to die within 28 days from all-cause-mortality. Raw = per death certificate


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## Ajax Bay (24 Jan 2022)

Life is great if you get a ride in, add value with your posts, oh, and World Peace!


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## Alex321 (25 Jan 2022)

Slick said:


> We must have all seen this now lots of times with the best example being man and wife who share a bed with one contracting it but not the other. I would like to give the vaccine the benefit of the doubt with that one but in true anecdotal style, a friend of mine wife and daughter had it but he didn't. This was pre vaccine and back when all ge needed was a negative PCR to remain out and about. I remember feeling a bit uncomfortable around him for a while but he did follow every rule at the time.


This happened to my daughter.

She has two sons, aged 5 & 8. Her husband and one son got it back in May, when none of them had been vaccinated. She and her other son then got it in November, when both she and her husband had been double vaccinated.

The two kids share a bedroom, and the two adults share a bed, yet one of each got it at a time.


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## shep (25 Jan 2022)

It wasn't that long ago some on here were slating the Government for 'rushing it through' If I recall and weren't happy about that. 

Seems that's changed a bit now though.


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## deptfordmarmoset (25 Jan 2022)

Alex321 said:


> This happened to my daughter.
> 
> She has two sons, aged 5 & 8. Her husband and one son got it back in May, when none of them had been vaccinated. She and her other son then got it in November, when both she and her husband had been double vaccinated.
> 
> The two kids share a bedroom, and the two adults share a bed, yet one of each got it at a time.


My daughter's family is similar. It's like there's only one covid at a time allowed in the house so they take turns. It meant 3 separate sessions of isolation just before Christmas. They seem to need to go back to the playground to get the latest version.

My step-daughter, on the other hand, is a complete covid magnet. She's had it 3 times. I dropped a Vitamin D level self-test kit off at her place yesterday. I've no idea how accurate they are and I'm unsure that there's even an agreed threshold for ''deficiency'' but I'm pretty certain her levels are low and higher levels will not harm her.


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## mjr (25 Jan 2022)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I dropped a Vitamin D level self-test kit off at her place yesterday. I've no idea how accurate they are and I'm unsure that there's even an agreed threshold for ''deficiency'' but I'm pretty certain her levels are low and higher levels will not harm her.


It is possible to poison oneself with vitamin D but you have to take like 20x once-a-day supplements for a while.


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## Ajax Bay (25 Jan 2022)

shep said:


> It wasn't that long ago some on here were slating the Government for 'rushing it through' If I recall and weren't happy about that.
> Seems that's changed a bit now though.


@shep your post would be more interesting if you'd made an effort to quote "some on here" "weren't happy" for rushing 'it' through (assume you mean the MHRA authorising the various vaccines for use (Dec 2020)). How has what "changed"? What was the cause of the unhappiness?


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## shep (25 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> @shep your post would be more interesting if you'd made an effort to quote "some on here" "weren't happy" for rushing 'it' through (assume you mean the MHRA authorising the various vaccines for use (Dec 2020)). How has what "changed"? What was the cause of the unhappiness?


I always thought the Government did a great job of the roll out myself, but I suppose I would, but now it sounds like people are more than happy with the progress.

Perhaps I'm wrong and all posters during the early phases were fully behind Boris?


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## midlife (25 Jan 2022)

I thought in the States that Pfizer / Cominarty had full FDA approval

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58309254

But note here in the UK where it's "emergency" use....


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## Pat "5mph" (25 Jan 2022)

*Mod Note:*


Rickshaw Phil said:


> we would like to avoid the site becoming a spreader of conspiracy theories, rumour and misinformation, so health advice and COVID-19 news from reputable sources *only *please. Twitter, Facebook or Youtube don't count as such unless they are backed up by reputable sources.
> 
> Thanks


Thread reopened.


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## midlife (25 Jan 2022)

After working all through the pandemic I have the feeling that I'm behind stalked more by covid than ever before . Its rife at the school where my wife works and more people at work seem to have it.

Maybe stalking is the wrong word but I feel its just a mater of time..... Despite the cases falling


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## Ajax Bay (25 Jan 2022)

Demographics for the South East (excludes London) - in slight growth the last few days, turning flat. School ages leading with associated growth in parental ages. Interesting that there's a third stream of growth appearing in the demographics - child > parent > grandparent? The spacing and timing looks right.
Note that these are second order plots which show growth (or decay) rate.


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## Ajax Bay (28 Jan 2022)

Next week patient-facing health workers who've not yet been vaccinated against COVID-19, for whatever reason, will need their first jab (to allow for an 8 week gap to their second) if they are to carry on in such a role. There are various arguments.

The policy of mandatory vaccination for healthcare workers goes against 'bodily autonomy' [It's doesn't.]
The policy is contrary to the ethical principle of informed consent. [Nope, not that either.]
Healthcare workers who refuse to be vaccinated are coerced to have the vaccination. [coercion with a small 'c'. Even if such description is reasonable, the question remains: is it morally justified?]
The policy will lead to a mass exodus of staff, which will damage the healthcare system and patient care [Maybe - figures available. Other countries offer an idea of the extent of this. There will a deadline cohort, hoping the policy will be abandoned.]
There is no evidence that vaccination stops infection or transmission. [Mmmm]
Effectiveness of vaccine against Omicron infection and transmission still tbc. UK HSA (20 Jan): "several studies have provided evidence that vaccines are effective at preventing infection" and that, since uninfected people cannot transmit the virus, "the vaccines provide some protection against transmission". The report noted: "There may be additional benefit, beyond that due to prevention of infection, if some of those individuals who become infected despite vaccination are also at a reduced risk of transmitting (for example, because of reduced duration or level of viral shedding)."

There is strong evidence that the vaccine is effective against serious illness / hospital admission. US CDC data suggests that vaccinated adults aged 18 to 49 are 12x less likely to be admitted to hospital than the unvaccinated.
For 50 to 64s, the likelihood of hospital admission is 44 times less (US CDC). UK ONS figures suggest that the likelihood of developing long COVID-19 is 41% lower for the doubly-vaccinated.

So vaccinated healthcare workers who nevertheless get infected with COVID-19 are less likely to be absent from the 'front line' for a prolonged period than their non-vaccinated counterparts, easing pressure on the NHS.


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## KnittyNorah (28 Jan 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Next week patient-facing health workers who've not yet been vaccinated against COVID-19, for whatever reason, will need their first jab (to allow for an 8 week gap to their second) if they are to carry on in such a role. There are various arguments.
> 
> The policy of mandatory vaccination for healthcare workers goes against 'bodily autonomy' [It's doesn't.]
> The policy is contrary to the ethical principle of informed consent. [Nope, not that either.]
> ...


It'll be interesting to see what happens. 
Similar, but in essence very different, to me, as I was willing-but-unable, in the 1980s when I never developed any titre of immunity to rubella, despite being vaccinated multiple times. So I had to abandon my research post in ultrasound and never did get a PhD; another job was found for me and I moved onto an entirely different path well away from pregnant women. I'm afraid I have little sympathy for the able-but-unwilling ...


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## midlife (28 Jan 2022)

I have to be vaccinated against Hep B to do my job, the older you get the response to the Hep B vaccine reduces.... Took 3 jabs to keep me seroconverted if memory serves... 

The government will delay the requirement for mandatory covid vaccination due to their overall vaccine rollout success IMHO


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## KnittyNorah (28 Jan 2022)

midlife said:


> The government will delay the requirement for mandatory covid vaccination due to their overall vaccine rollout success IMHO


I think you're probably right.


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## Rusty Nails (29 Jan 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> I think you're probably right.


On the one hand It's freedom time...no masks, clubs open, care home restrictions slashed and on the other things are so serious that they are prepared to sack unvaccinated NHS staff despite the extra pressures this will cause the NHS.

I suspect the government is looking for a climbdown that doesn't look like a climbdown on this issue.


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## icowden (29 Jan 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> It'll be interesting to see what happens.
> Similar, but in essence very different, to me, as I was willing-but-unable, in the 1980s when I never developed any titre of immunity to rubella, despite being vaccinated multiple times. So I had to abandon my research post in ultrasound and never did get a PhD; another job was found for me and I moved onto an entirely different path well away from pregnant women. I'm afraid I have little sympathy for the able-but-unwilling ...


Indeed - and if you try getting a patient facing job with a Private healthcare company or via NHS Staff Bank, you will not be considered unless you have had immunisations for TB, Chickenpox, Mumps, Measles, etc, so it really isn't anything new.

It still baffles me that someone can practice medicine but be reluctant to take it. To my mind it's the same is if you went to a restaurant but found that some of the staff wouldn't eat there if you paid them.


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## KnittyNorah (29 Jan 2022)

icowden said:


> Indeed - and if you try getting a patient facing job with a Private healthcare company or via NHS Staff Bank, you will not be considered unless you have had immunisations for TB, Chickenpox, Mumps, Measles, etc, so it really isn't anything new.
> 
> It still baffles me that someone can practice medicine but be reluctant to take it. To my mind it's the same is if you went to a restaurant but found that some of the staff wouldn't eat there if you paid them.



I can tolerate members of the 'lay' public saying they 'don't want' vax A, or are objecting in principle to vax B, or mandatory ones(eg for kids to start school), claiming so-called philosophical or religious exemptions and other nonsense. It doesn't mean I like it, agree with it or understand it, but I am willing to tolerate it. 

But I am both baffled _and insulted _by this sort of behaviour from medical professionals, and the confused, and confusing, supposed and so-called 'principles' - whatever they might be - behind it.


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## Ming the Merciless (29 Jan 2022)

Amazing scan


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## classic33 (30 Jan 2022)

Two years ago, yesterday, since the first case was identified in the UK.


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## midlife (30 Jan 2022)

classic33 said:


> Two years ago, yesterday, since the first case was identified in the UK.



Can't speak for others but for me that 2 years has gone quick!


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## Ming the Merciless (30 Jan 2022)

First case local was 1.5 miles away was reported 2nd March 20.A parent at local primary school.


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## Ajax Bay (1 Feb 2022)

Some may have read that from 31 Jan they are to give a breakdown by reinfection status and last night's update to the gov.uk dashboard gives us the figures.
Looks like a non-issue for case rates as the %age is so small. However it's interesting to look at the reinfection data.
The main black curve (below) is _newReinfectionsBySpecimenDate / newCasesBySpecimenDate_: the fraction each day that are reinfections. Total daily infections are shown in faint grey for context (see peaks α NYD 2021, δ mid July 2022, and ο NYD 2022). Enjoy!
Jun 2020 reinfections in original strain. Very low reinfections in α phase (mid Sep 20 - mid Mar 21), but then ramped up (mid Mar - mid Apr ? easing of restrictions? but before δ), settled down again through δ Jun-Nov 21, and then rocketed as catching ο was much less protected by immunity from previous infection. Variant variance with likely some waning?


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## Bazzer (5 Feb 2022)

Daughter 2 currently self isolating after testing positive for a 2nd time, (and possibly the third time) she has had the virus. - Fully vaccinated and boosted. Her boyfriend also isolating after he caught it for a second time. - Also fully vaccinated and boosted.
In the meantime, my sister, also fully vaccinated and boosted, who caught covid just before Christmas is still struggling. She is supposed to be having surgery in the next couple of weeks, but personally I'd be surprised if the anaesthetist gives it approval.


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## vickster (5 Feb 2022)

Bazzer said:


> Daughter 2 currently self isolating after testing positive for a 2nd time, (and possibly the third time) she has had the virus. - Fully vaccinated and boosted. Her boyfriend also isolating after he caught it for a second time. - Also fully vaccinated and boosted.


Have they done the antibody testing?


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## Bazzer (6 Feb 2022)

vickster said:


> Have they done the antibody testing?


Not so far as I aware. But my wife may suggest it to her when they speak later today.
She may also qualify for one as she is due to work in a care home when college time permits.


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## midlife (6 Feb 2022)

Why test for antibodies?


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## vickster (6 Feb 2022)

midlife said:


> Why test for antibodies?


Just out of interest given they’ve had multiple infections


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## vickster (6 Feb 2022)

Bazzer said:


> Not so far as I aware. But my wife may suggest it to her when they speak later today.
> She may also qualify for one as she is due to work in a care home when college time permits.


I don’t know if you can ‘apply’ after entering PCR result. Can’t recall exactly when the tick box appears and not everyone gets the test through


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## mjr (7 Feb 2022)

Novaxovid approved by MHRA, the fifth vaccine available in the UK (about 6 weeks after the EU?) https://www.gov.uk/government/news/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-nuvaxovid-approved-by-mhra

Researchers are racing to understand long covid, worried by the capitulation of several countries to omicron. One summary of where we're at, describing the two leading theories as being immune system disruption and virus persistence: https://www.vox.com/22906853/omicron-long-covid-vaccinated-symptoms-cause


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## Ajax Bay (10 Feb 2022)

The (blue) death certificates daily count is starting to plateau as its extra reporting lag plays out. It's becoming a decreasingly smaller fraction of the 28-days (date of death) dashboard measure (black). This suggests the amount of "incidental" deaths (with (ie +ve in last 28 days but not mentioned on death certificate) edit: is increasing.
Furtehr edit: increasing as a proportion but as dashboard daily figure reduces, is decreasing (thank goodness) in real daily number terms.


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## midlife (10 Feb 2022)

Sorry, is it me or is the last sentence incomplete?


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## Ajax Bay (23 Feb 2022)

By date of registration. The purple line shows the ghastly peak 13 months ago. The black line shows how January has gone: lowest January monthly death rate for seven years: hurrah.





https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-florence-nightingales-daigrams-for-deaths/
(Note that Oxford scientists have problems with webpage address speeling; or maybe this is a 'tip of the hat' to the Welsh.)


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## deptfordmarmoset (23 Feb 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> By date of registration. The purple line shows the ghastly peak 13 months ago. The black line shows how January has gone: lowest January monthly death rate for seven years: hurrah.
> 
> View attachment 632442
> 
> ...


Which does make me wonder whether a degree of extra social isolation works as a cure (or at least, a significant mitigation) for flu.


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## KnittyNorah (23 Feb 2022)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Which does make me wonder whether a degree of extra social isolation works as a cure (or at least, a significant mitigation) for flu.



C-19 in all its variants is much more infectious than 'the flu' so all and any sensible actions taken to reduce the spread of C-19 - even if only minimally-effective against certain variants of C-19 - will _significantly_ reduce the spread of flu, and many, if not most, other airborne infections. 
Obviously I am saying 'sensible' actions because wearing a radioactive necklace won't help anyone, nor will daily dosing with bleach ... yet those 'actions' have been recommended by some --- _persons_ --- as a means of avoiding infection ...

A neighbour of mine phoned me this morning to say she's tested +ve on LTF. I spent most of yesterday with her, helping her pin and fit a dress she's making. She's new to dressmaking. The only place she's been where she was actually in contact with strangers was to the hairdressers on Saturday. No-one was masked in the hairdressers. Damn.


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## Johnno260 (24 Feb 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> By date of registration. The purple line shows the ghastly peak 13 months ago. The black line shows how January has gone: lowest January monthly death rate for seven years: hurrah.
> 
> View attachment 632442
> 
> ...



Those spikes are scary. 

I had been using this site. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?country=~GBR


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## classic33 (8 Mar 2022)

Cases are on the increase locally, in some areas more than others. Different areas with different demographics. Age groups and nationalities in those areas seeing the biggest increases.


Figures used were for last week, 4th March.


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## deptfordmarmoset (8 Mar 2022)

classic33 said:


> Cases are on the increase locally, in some areas more than others. Different areas with different demographics. Age groups and nationalities in those areas seeing the biggest increases.
> 
> 
> Figures used were for last week, 4th March.


Looking at Zoe's figures, which are pretty much real time, give a day or so for the daily update, shows Kirklees as the worst, Wakefield slightly better, Leeds better still and Bradford down with under half that of Kirklees. My local figures, while falling, are still up there round about the Kirklees level. And they've been there since mid-January.


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## classic33 (8 Mar 2022)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> Looking at Zoe's figures, which are pretty much real time, give a day or so for the daily update, shows Kirklees as the worst, Wakefield slightly better, Leeds better still and Bradford down with under half that of Kirklees. My local figures, while falling, are still up there round about the Kirklees level. And they've been there since mid-January.


They were dropping locally, Calderdale, but have been reported as being on the increase this month.


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## deptfordmarmoset (8 Mar 2022)

classic33 said:


> They were dropping locally, Calderdale, but have been reported as being on the increase this month.


It's showing as 17,933 per million, only slightly above Bradford region. I can only see the trends for my own region and it may be going in the wrong direction but, nevertheless, it's at a level lower than my own region has seen this year.


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## classic33 (8 Mar 2022)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> It's showing as 17,933 per million, only slightly above Bradford region. I can only see the trends for my own region and it may be going in the wrong direction but, nevertheless, it's at a level lower than my own region has seen this year.


It's lower than the start of the year, no doubt there. Just it's seen as the first increase this year.

Maybe the overall figure is down, across the borough, reducing the actual numbers.


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## mjr (9 Mar 2022)

What's going on in Scotland? Official stats say cases are high (10k/million/week) and rising in almost all districts.


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## MrGrumpy (9 Mar 2022)

Age groups ? Less or more in older or younger population? On the face of it just now it seems younger people in my experience? I’m sure there is uptick down south as well if what I read on twitter was accurate?


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## Ming the Merciless (9 Mar 2022)

Of course as LFT kits run out after April the only stats you (might) see will be for hospital admissions or deaths.


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## icowden (9 Mar 2022)

mjr said:


> What's going on in Scotland? Official stats say cases are high (10k/million/week) and rising in almost all districts.


It's almost like they have just eased restrictions and people are now free to spread the virus...

Hang on... no - it's *exactly* like that. 

Isn't it weird how hospitals want you to do a temperature check and wear a mask but the government doesn't want you to. Is there any way of knowing who is right? Answers on a postcard to...


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## vickster (9 Mar 2022)

icowden said:


> It's almost like they have just eased restrictions and people are now free to spread the virus...
> 
> Hang on... no - it's *exactly* like that.
> 
> Isn't it weird how hospitals want you to do a temperature check and wear a mask but the government doesn't want you to. Is there any way of knowing who is right? Answers on a postcard to...


I wasn't temp checked at an NHS hospital yesterday (and won't be when I go back with my mum later), mask though.
Private hospital did away with temp checks for outpatients some time last year (still checking in-patient admissions though...or they were)


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## markemark (9 Mar 2022)

Exit wave. Was expected.


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## midlife (9 Mar 2022)

Our local rate has jumped about 20% over the last week. Outbreaks at the hospitals plus quite a few occupying beds. No data on our intranet since 3rd March when we had 80-90 on the wards. Our maximum peaked at about 300 so still very high.......


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## mjr (9 Mar 2022)

markemark said:


> Exit wave. Was expected.


Wasn't that the one over New Year? Is there any limit on the number of exit waves? 

Expected by who where? While Scotland's National Clinical Director says not to panic, he also doesn't make any mention of it being an exit wave. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-60637961 which also suggests that it may be due to the even-more-infectious new-Omicron lineage BA.2 spreading in Scotland.


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## Dogtrousers (9 Mar 2022)

mjr said:


> Wasn't that the one over New Year? Is there any limit on the number of exit waves?


I thought the "exit wave" was to be expected this summer? But I know nothing.


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## markemark (9 Mar 2022)

mjr said:


> Wasn't that the one over New Year? Is there any limit on the number of exit waves?
> 
> Expected by who where? While Scotland's National Clinical Director says not to panic, he also doesn't make any mention of it being an exit wave. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-60637961 which also suggests that it may be due to the even-more-infectious new-Omicron lineage BA.2 spreading in Scotland.


There will be an exit wave for each major releasing of restrictions. This is the omicron exit wave. Was expected. It will be manageable and built into to the planning. We had omicron restrictions as the severity and vaccine resistance was unknown. Had we known what we know now we wouldn’t have locked down in December. It was the right decision but we now have a much greater understanding. We are shifting to living with covid and that will mean higher rates of hospitalisation and deaths than during lockdowns. But the difference between omicron and original/alpha/delta means the government has decide the country will accept it.


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## Ajax Bay (9 Mar 2022)

markemark said:


> We are shifting to living with covid and that will mean higher rates of hospitalisation and deaths than during lockdowns.


Your inference is prospectively very likely false.
Let us know what the periods of "lockdown" which you suggest as a benchmark and we can do a quick check on "hospitalisation and deaths" and compare that with the present or near future forecasts.
The evening regional TV reported that county Medical Officers were recommending that people with COVID or other respiratory symptoms should not visit patients in hospital. Wow! NSS. Did people who were ill think twice about visiting family/friends in hospital back in 2019 and earlier? (Answer: I b****y hope they did; and didn't.)


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## markemark (9 Mar 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Your inference is prospectively very likely false.
> Let us know what the periods of "lockdown" which you suggest as a benchmark and we can do a quick check on "hospitalisation and deaths" and compare that with the present or near future forecasts.
> The evening regional TV reported that county Medical Officers were recommending that people with COVID or other respiratory symptoms should not visit patients in hospital. Wow! NSS. Did people who were ill think twice about visiting family/friends in hospital back in 2019 and earlier? (Answer: I b****y hope they did; and didn't.)


Sorry that was wrong. I meant a rise in hospitalisation last and deaths than after lockdowns. It will rise.


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## mjr (9 Mar 2022)

markemark said:


> Had we known what we know now we wouldn’t have locked down in December.


Scotland didn't lock down in December 2021!

There was advice to cancel Christmas parties on 9 December (repeated 14 December), guidelines on distancing and one-way systems on 16 December and event size limits from 26 December. There were night club closures from 27th but at no point people ordered to stay at home or non-essential businesses ordered to close (aka a lockdown). There was even some relaxation of self-isolation rules on 11 December.


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## Ajax Bay (9 Mar 2022)

markemark said:


> Sorry that was wrong. I meant a rise in hospitalisation last and deaths than after lockdowns. It will rise.


No, sorry. Do not understand what you're trying to say (as amended). What will rise? And rise from what?


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## Pat "5mph" (9 Mar 2022)

mjr said:


> What's going on in Scotland? Official stats say cases are high (10k/million/week) and rising in almost all districts.


Probably right: about a dozen people I know personally have been C positive during the last 2 weeks.
Age groups from 6 months to 60+ yo.
No one seems to end up in hospital or be really poorly with it.
In the hospital where I work, there have been plenty of elderly patients with the virus, lots asymptomatic, no one gravely ill from the virus.
I still haven't caught it


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## markemark (9 Mar 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> No, sorry. Do not understand what you're trying to say (as amended). What will rise? And rise from what?


Ok. During lockdown the cases plummeted. As lockdown has ended cases will rise, hospitalisation will rise and deaths will rise. The evidence shows that severe illness is much less than previous variants and deaths will be dramatically lower than from previous variants. But all will rise during an exit wave.

Government know this and will have factored it in. Deaths will rise to a level that the government has decided it can live with.


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## Ajax Bay (9 Mar 2022)

markemark said:


> During lockdown the cases plummeted. As lockdown has ended cases will rise, hospitalisation will rise and deaths will rise. . . . all will rise during an exit wave.


Incomprehensible (to me - sorry, I tried). I can find no sign (causation or correlation) of "deaths rising after a lockdown ended". Give me the (your) end dates of these 'lockdowns' (there wasn't one in late 2021, was there?) so we can review the hospital admissions and death rates (see graphs below). Are you talking 29 Mar 2021? Or some time in 2021? June/July 2021 end of restrictions coincided with Delta so confounding 'wave' formations: the policy, albeit unstated was to get to herd immunity by vaccination and natural infection combo in the summer months. Somewhat screwed by a much more infectious (and vaccine evading) variant (Omicron) emerging making herd immunity objective unachievable.
Not much 'waving' post lockdown in July and August 2020. Describing the steady increase in September/October as 'because lockdown ended' is a stretch: months after 'lockdown' ended (EOTHO!). Did cases 'plummet' in November 2020? Well, they went down a bit.
There have been three waves: Apr 2020, Jan 2021 and Jan 2022. Cases "plummeted" in May 2020 and Jan/Feb 2021: both partly as a result of lockdowns (majority view). Cases "plummeted" in Jan 2022, but not because of lockdown (so why?).
Reduction of testing means from now on the best way to track cases is actually by ONS infection estimates.

(NB England)











Here's my simple model: cases rise, lockdown implemented, (tragically) deaths rise (about 20 day between peaks), cases fall, deaths fall; new variant and/or autumn: cases rise, . . . and repeat, once. Summer 2021: new variant but cases and deaths at far lower levels because of vulnerable/O/50s vaccinated even though no lockdown.
Last autumn variant more transmissible but less lethal has resulted in a low wave of hospitalisations (NB normally happen in Dec/Jan/Feb every years for respiratory diseases) and a deficit of deaths (all causes) (below average (2015-2019) levels). Current tick up in hospital admission rate is 'happens to be with' not 'because of' for the majority of the patients in current cohort (+ve test on admission). The evidence for this is that hospital admissions are rising cin synch with cases, as opposed to the (average) 9 day delay we have seen over the last 2 years.
Don't know why the death rate in Scotland has ticked up these last 28 days. Anyone?


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## classic33 (14 Mar 2022)

Invite to make an appointment for the fourth jab in the post this morning. 
Reminder, via text message, to get the second and third jabs this afternoon.


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## PK99 (14 Mar 2022)

classic33 said:


> Invite to make an appointment for the fourth jab in the post this morning.
> Reminder, via text message, to get the second and third jabs this afternoon.



Had my 4th back on 4th Feb. Exactly 1 year after my first.


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## classic33 (14 Mar 2022)

PK99 said:


> Had my 4th back on 4th Feb. Exactly 1 year after my first.


Saturday, to the day*, would have been a year from the first for me.

13th March last year.


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## mjr (14 Mar 2022)

classic33 said:


> Saturday, to the day*, would have been a year from the first for me.
> 
> 13th March last year.


In case there are new readers, see https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/the-retirement-thread.216598/post-6346464

Bit annoying they've no flag on the alerts database to avoid bothering you.


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## oldwheels (14 Mar 2022)

The Scottish government is contemplating extending the compulsory mask wearing period but no announcement as yet. 
I am still awaiting my 4th jab but should be soon. Meantime I keep clear of crowded places as much as possible. Our Post Office is closed due to the staff being infected.


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## MrGrumpy (14 Mar 2022)

oldwheels said:


> The Scottish government is contemplating extending the compulsory mask wearing period but no announcement as yet.
> I am still awaiting my 4th jab but should be soon. Meantime I keep clear of crowded places as much as possible. Our Post Office is closed due to the staff being infected.


Much as I kind of agree , the horse has bolted already. Mask wearing now is minimal. Unless in shops and public transport. My work place is now nearly non extistant.


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## classic33 (14 Mar 2022)

mjr said:


> In case there are new readers, see https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/the-retirement-thread.216598/post-6346464
> 
> Bit annoying they've no flag on the alerts database to avoid bothering you.


Why you felt like having to let "new readers" know my medical history, let alone link to another, unconnected, thread is unclear. I was open with it on the relevant threads. It's not something I've hidden. 

The result wasn't something I'm proud off, an ambulance wasted and a cubical taken up in A&E as a result, simply so they could keep an eye on me. There were others that could have used those facilities if I'd not ignored medical advice about vaccinations, on a personal level.

There were phonecalls, surgery and national numbers, letters and texts, this time last year. And a year on I'll not blame the system in place at the time.


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## oldwheels (14 Mar 2022)

MrGrumpy said:


> Much as I kind of agree , the horse has bolted already. Mask wearing now is minimal. Unless in shops and public transport. My work place is now nearly non extistant.


Many if not most here still mask up in shops but the ferry is full of tourists who see no need but locals mostly still do. Noticed the double decker bus today loading up with day trippers and no masks to be seen.


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## Milzy (28 Mar 2022)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...AFcApWw2q-a0JbULnqn4fNv8Fg1Adp8nEvirZSda2KZvw

The conspiracy theorists were right all along.


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## Ajax Bay (28 Mar 2022)

Milzy said:


> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...AFcApWw2q-a0JbULnqn4fNv8Fg1Adp8nEvirZSda2KZvw
> 
> The conspiracy theorists were right all along.


Click bait. Whatifitis? Massive assumptions. 'Some scientists / "growing number [but tiny minority] of experts"'. Have resisted Mail links for several months: take all the kudos you deserve for enticing me to open it.


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## Johnno260 (28 Mar 2022)

Milzy said:


> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...AFcApWw2q-a0JbULnqn4fNv8Fg1Adp8nEvirZSda2KZvw
> 
> The conspiracy theorists were right all along.



So we had 165k deaths with lockdowns and a vaccine is that not a high enough body count for you?

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Lockdowns aren’t a silver bullet, it’s part of a package of measures to mitigate the spread and protect vulnerable people. 
But again it’s not just vulnerable at risk I know healthy people who have seriously long term health issues from Covid, one is a child as well. 

Masks work, social distancing and lockdowns work, vaccines work, incredulity doesn’t and in this case it potentially costs lives.


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## Tenkaykev (29 Mar 2022)

Milzy said:


> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...AFcApWw2q-a0JbULnqn4fNv8Fg1Adp8nEvirZSda2KZvw
> 
> The conspiracy theorists were right all along.


Da comrade, the article in the shitrag you linked to confirms the success of the misinformation campaign mounted by your friends in the east.
The science however is unanimous in showing that lockdown has indeed resulted in fewer deaths.


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## johnblack (29 Mar 2022)

Blimey, wasn’t even aware that this thread was still a thing.

Not sure if mentioned in here but The Lancet article earlier this month regarding excess deaths per 100k per country 2020-21 was very interesting. 
England 125.8
NI 131.8
Wales 135.5
Scotland 130.6
USA 179.3
Germany 120.5
France 124.2
Italy 227
Holland 140
Spain 186.7
Sweden 91
Denmark 94
Belgium 146.6

Very similar comparisons and the German figures do raise a few questions about how they were viewed as being the country who dealt with the issue best.


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## mjr (29 Mar 2022)

johnblack said:


> Not sure if mentioned in here but The Lancet article earlier this month regarding excess deaths per 100k per country 2020-21 was very interesting.


What Lancet article? What dates in 2020 and 2021?



> Very similar comparisons and the German figures do raise a few questions about how they were viewed as being the country who dealt with the issue best.


They were, at first. Then they farked up, delaying and squabbling, and a government only needs fark up once and a lot of vulnerable people die and the figures get very close to governments that farked up repeatedly.

I suspect most of the variations will be explained by when the first wave hit a country, its demographics and public reaction. The figure that I think is way different to what it ought to be is the USA one, probably due to party-politicising both lockdown and hands/face/space.


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## PK99 (29 Mar 2022)

johnblack said:


> Blimey, wasn’t even aware that this thread was still a thing.
> 
> Not sure if mentioned in here but The Lancet article earlier this month regarding excess deaths per 100k per country 2020-21 was very interesting.
> England 125.8
> ...



Rearranged in order (rounded for clarity)


Italy227​Spain187​USA179​Belgium147​Holland140​Wales136​NI132​Scotland131​England126​France124​Germany121​Denmark94​Sweden91​


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## Johnno260 (29 Mar 2022)

I had been using this site for things like excess mortality. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?country=~GBR

They have a lot of data, I have been using it for a while.


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## johnblack (29 Mar 2022)

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext

All of 2020 and 2021

Also has a comparison for excess deaths against reported Covid deaths. The UK figures were fairly well in line, Germany may have under reported for some time. Not Russian levels of under reporting but still fairly significant.


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## shep (29 Mar 2022)

Johnno260 said:


> They have a lot of data, I have been using it for a while.


To do what?


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## Ajax Bay (31 Mar 2022)

Yesterday UK’s CSA (Sir Patrick Vallance) giving 'evidence' to to S&T select c’ttee: important to look back at lockdowns and “dissect” which elements had [been most/more and less/least effective]: clear that there were “detrimental effects” from lockdown and should not be undertaken lightly in future.
Really difficult, especially with a dearth of knowledge (less as the pandemic progressed) to get the advice and decisions right.


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## Johnno260 (31 Mar 2022)

shep said:


> To do what?



I have idiot relatives that deny Covid even exists, so having data to back up what I claim is a good thing.


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## mjr (31 Mar 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Really difficult, especially with a dearth of knowledge (less as the pandemic progressed) to get the advice and decisions right.


We really shouldn't have less knowledge as the the pandemic progresses, but testing has been progressively cut back to save a few shekels, at unknown cost. First we couldn't get a PCR to confirm a lateral flow, which means new variants aren't identifiable as soon; and now only NHS and a few others can get free tests. Otherwise, basically only the rich can test regularly at £10 for 5, which is the best I've seen so far: I saw one shop selling one lateral flow test for £7 last Friday!

Shouldn't they have kept free testing for exam-age schoolchildren if they really wanted to minimise disruption to education, instead of allowing covid to blight a third year of exams?


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## classic33 (31 Mar 2022)

mjr said:


> We really shouldn't have less knowledge as the the pandemic progresses, but testing has been progressively cut back to save a few shekels, at unknown cost. First we couldn't get a PCR to confirm a lateral flow, which means new variants aren't identifiable as soon; and now only NHS and a few others can get free tests. Otherwise, basically only the rich can test regularly at £10 for 5, which is the best I've seen so far: I saw one shop selling one lateral flow test for £7 last Friday!
> 
> *Shouldn't they have kept free testing for exam-age schoolchildren if they really wanted to minimise disruption to education, instead of allowing covid to blight a third year of exams?*


This years exam results have already been "ruined", due to the way in which lessinsy lessons have had to be taught.


Edited to correct the spelling.


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## KnittyNorah (31 Mar 2022)

Only vaguely on-topic I know, but I am thrilled to learn that it seems I've been accepted for a clinical trial of booster omicron-variant vaccine. I've been on the vaccine trial registry since it first came out but there's been nothing for which I was eligible within acceptable reach. First appointment (by phone) tomorrow and if I pass that screening, I'll be making a visit to the centre participating in the trial and if I pass _that,_ I'll be getting a booster jab of either Spikevax or an omicron-variant version of it.


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## icowden (31 Mar 2022)

classic33 said:


> This years exam results have already been "ruined", due to the way in which lessinsy have had to be taught.


What? In classrooms?


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## Alex321 (1 Apr 2022)

mjr said:


> Ajax Bay said:
> 
> 
> > Yesterday UK’s CSA (Sir Patrick Vallance) giving 'evidence' to to S&T select c’ttee: important to look back at lockdowns and “dissect” which elements had [been most/more and less/least effective]: clear that there were “detrimental effects” from lockdown and should not be undertaken lightly in future.
> ...


I think he meant less dearth (i.e. More knowledge).


----------



## Dogtrousers (1 Apr 2022)

Alex321 said:


> I think he meant less dearth (i.e. More knowledge).


You can never have too much dearth.


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## deptfordmarmoset (1 Apr 2022)

My local borough is now at the highest infection rate that it's ever been. Zoe's showing 22,704 cases (previous highest: 22,360 on 8/01/22.) Also showing almost 4.5 million active symptomatic cases. Good job it's gone away....


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## mjr (1 Apr 2022)

Dogtrousers said:


> You can never have too much dearth.


I was going to reply that no-one ever talks of more or less dearth, but...!


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## Dogtrousers (1 Apr 2022)

mjr said:


> I was going to reply that no-one ever talks of more or less dearth, but...!


Nothing worse than a dearth of dearth


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## deptfordmarmoset (1 Apr 2022)

Dogtrousers said:


> Nothing worse than a dearth of dearth


Luckily dearths of dearths are few and far between.


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## vickster (1 Apr 2022)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> My local borough is now at the highest infection rate that it's ever been. Zoe's showing 22,704 cases (previous highest: 22,360 on 8/01/22.) Also showing almost 4.5 million active symptomatic cases. Good job it's gone away....


who said it had gone away?


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## icowden (1 Apr 2022)

vickster said:


> who said it had gone away?


the government. no need for masking, dividers etc


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## Alex321 (1 Apr 2022)

icowden said:


> the government. no need for masking, dividers etc


They have never suggested it has "gone away", or anything close to that.

They are saying we are now entering the phase where we will have to live with it as "normal", just like flu etc.


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## vickster (1 Apr 2022)

icowden said:


> the government. no need for masking, dividers etc


See above


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## deptfordmarmoset (1 Apr 2022)

vickster said:


> who said it had gone away?


The government doctrine of ''Living with Covid'' has led to a large majority of people behaving as though it has gone away. While hospital admissions and deaths continue to rise.


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## rockyroller (1 Apr 2022)

in "the states" we are seeing increasing #s of kids in school testing positive & staying out. despite my own suspicious flu like symptoms & in the Teachers in our Family, Wifey & Daughter, we all continue to test negative. can't wait to go back to my retail job next week where I am face-to-face w/ hundreds of strangers per shift ... *cough* *cough*. I might just keep a mask in my pocket for those close-talkers ...


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## matticus (1 Apr 2022)

Dogtrousers said:


> Nothing worse than a dearth of dearth


It's good if you live in Hull, I think?


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## markemark (1 Apr 2022)

Know lots of people with it of all ages. Don’t know anyone who’s more than a bad cold ill. Doubt I know many who aren’t fully jabbed.


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## midlife (1 Apr 2022)

Infections here seem to have peaked at about 1000 per 100,000. Hospital admissions doubled from about 30 to 60 ish and from nil deaths at the beginning of the month I think there were 2 last week.

LFT testing from today down to 2 times a week and not every day, if someone in the household has it then come into work if LFT negative. No PCR tests unless on the wards etc.


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## Julia9054 (1 Apr 2022)

markemark said:


> Know lots of people with it of all ages. Don’t know anyone who’s more than a bad cold ill. Doubt I know many who aren’t fully jabbed.


”people I know” is too small a sample size.
A dangerously ill tiny proportion of a huge amount of people = a lot of people


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## markemark (1 Apr 2022)

Julia9054 said:


> ”people I know” is too small a sample size.
> A dangerously ill tiny proportion of a huge amount of people = a lot of people


Ok feel free to swap it for people who are ill with it in the nhs trust my wife works in.


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## icowden (1 Apr 2022)

Alex321 said:


> They have never suggested it has "gone away", or anything close to that.
> They are saying we are now entering the phase where we will have to live with it as "normal", just like flu etc.



Yes, whilst the medical profession has suggested that sensible precautions such as washing your hands, and wearing masks, would probably still help prevent transmission of infection.


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## markemark (1 Apr 2022)

icowden said:


> Yes, whilst the medical profession has suggested that sensible precautions such as washing your hands, and wearing masks, would probably still help prevent transmission of infection.


Big drop where my wife works in cases of gastroenteritis which they attribute to increased hand washing.


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## Alex321 (1 Apr 2022)

Julia9054 said:


> ”people I know” is too small a sample size.
> A dangerously ill tiny proportion of a huge amount of people = a lot of people


It is.

A tiny proportion of those who get flu become dangerously ill with it, but in the 5 years before COVID hit, that still averaged 20,000-25,000 deaths per year in the UK.


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## Dogtrousers (1 Apr 2022)

markemark said:


> Big drop where my wife works in cases of gastroenteritis which they attribute to increased hand washing.


For some reason I understood that to be a big_* increase*_ in gastroenteritis due to hand washing.

I was wondering if this was a new conspiracy theory: Hand washing causes gastroenteritis. We are being manipulated by Big Soap. Dirty hands, as nature intended, are best.

Sadly, such is the state of the world, I wasn't at all surprised by the existence of this theory. Then I read it properly.


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## markemark (1 Apr 2022)

The various covid teams (mainly discharge) my wife was seconded into have one the whole been mothballed as the need has dropped away since end of January.


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## mjr (1 Apr 2022)

Alex321 said:


> They have never suggested it has "gone away", or anything close to that.


"while the pandemic is not over, we have now passed the peak of the Omicron wave, with cases falling, hospitalisations in England now fewer than 10,000 and still falling [...] we now have sufficient levels of immunity to complete the transition from protecting people with government interventions to relying on vaccines and treatments" comes pretty close to saying the threat has gone away IMO.

The claim that Omicron had reached its peak has also aged badly, as it now looks like it was a ripple in front of the wave:








Alex321 said:


> They are saying we are now entering the phase where we will have to live with it as "normal", just like flu etc.


I don't think that is what they're saying but even that would be ridiculous because the less-deadly omicron is still worse than flu and how many suffer from "long flu"?

I could speculate on why they are saying these misleading things, but that would be political so better on NACA if you want.


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## Ajax Bay (1 Apr 2022)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> My local borough is now at the highest infection rate that it's ever been. Zoe's showing 22,704 cases (previous highest: 22,360 on 8/01/22.) Also showing almost 4.5 million active symptomatic cases. Good job it's gone away....





vickster said:


> who said it had gone away?






y, young lady!


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## vickster (1 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> View attachment 638097
> y, young lady!


Ummm?? 🤷‍♀️


----------



## matticus (1 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> View attachment 638097
> y, young lady!





vickster said:


> Ummm?? 🤷‍♀️


I think he means IRONy; but that only works if anyone HAD said it has gone away. And helpfully mjr has reminded us what was ACTUALLY said:

"*while the pandemic is not over*, we have now passed the peak of the Omicron wave, with cases falling, hospitalisations in England now fewer than 10,000 and still falling [...] we now have sufficient levels of immunity to complete the transition from protecting people with government interventions to relying on vaccines and treatments"
[my bold]


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## vickster (1 Apr 2022)

matticus said:


> I think he means IRONy; but that only works if anyone HAD said it has gone away. And helpfully mjr has reminded us what was ACTUALLY said:
> 
> "*while the pandemic is not over*, we have now passed the peak of the Omicron wave, with cases falling, hospitalisations in England now fewer than 10,000 and still falling [...] we now have sufficient levels of immunity to complete the transition from protecting people with government interventions to relying on vaccines and treatments"
> [my bold]


None the wiser sorry, long week. I'm off to the gym!


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## MrGrumpy (1 Apr 2022)

To be honest if we weren’t testing ourselves , I doubt we would have noticed much wrong !? Eldest has had probably what would be described as cold for 48hrs and that was it. The fatigue was leading up to it. My wife not quite the same , just fatigue but nothing else. The testing was just by chance as described further back. Strange really, not a bad thing to be honest , no serious illness .

Rest of us are still negative so far…….


Update I’m still negative , however her in doors has lost her taste


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## mjr (1 Apr 2022)

matticus said:


> I think he means IRONy; but that only works if anyone HAD said it has gone away. And helpfully mjr has reminded us what was ACTUALLY said:
> 
> "*while the pandemic is not over*, we have now passed the peak of the Omicron wave, with cases falling, hospitalisations in England now fewer than 10,000 and still falling [...] we now have sufficient levels of immunity to complete the transition from protecting people with government interventions to relying on vaccines and treatments"
> [my bold]


Yeah, go watch a clip of that statement: your bold emphasis is totally absent and "while the pandemic is not over" precedes a long section suggesting that the dangerous bit is basically over. I feel it's a textbook example of including something simply so his supporters can use it to reject an accurate summarising of the rest of the reckless statement.


----------



## KnittyNorah (1 Apr 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> Only vaguely on-topic I know, but I am thrilled to learn that it seems I've been accepted for a clinical trial of booster omicron-variant vaccine. I've been on the vaccine trial registry since it first came out but there's been nothing for which I was eligible within acceptable reach. First appointment (by phone) tomorrow and if I pass that screening, I'll be making a visit to the centre participating in the trial and if I pass _that,_ I'll be getting a booster jab of either Spikevax or an omicron-variant version of it.


Been accepted and have my first appointment at the trial centre on Thursday next.


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## Milzy (2 Apr 2022)

Did you all know that the vaccines were approved but approved for emergency use only? 
Did you know I had mine then got Covid yet some of the population decided not to have any jabs & didn’t catch any Covid that they knew about? 
The vaccines work as much as what sanctions do to stop wars.


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## DaveReading (2 Apr 2022)

Milzy said:


> Did you all know that the vaccines were approved but approved for emergency use only?
> 
> Did you know I had mine then got Covid yet some of the population decided not to have any jabs & didn’t catch any Covid that they knew about?
> 
> The vaccines work as much as what sanctions do to stop wars.


Two self-evident statements and a ridiculous analogy - what's the point you're trying to make ?


----------



## newfhouse (2 Apr 2022)

Milzy said:


> Did you all know that the vaccines were approved but approved for emergency use only?
> Did you know I had mine then got Covid yet some of the population decided not to have any jabs & didn’t catch any Covid that they knew about?
> The vaccines work as much as what sanctions do to stop wars.


Sometimes your bullshit is amusing and sometimes it is potentially harmful. Would you mind ditching the dangerous and concentrating on the funny? Thanks.


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## classic33 (2 Apr 2022)

Milzy said:


> Did you all know that the vaccines were approved but approved for emergency use only?
> Did you know I had mine then got Covid yet some of the population decided not to have any jabs & didn’t catch any Covid that they knew about?
> The vaccines work as much as what sanctions do to stop wars.


I have had neither flu nor flu jab, doesn't mean a thing.


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## Julia9054 (2 Apr 2022)

DaveReading said:


> Two self-evident statements and a ridiculous analogy - what's the point you're trying to make ?


That he likes a lil’ drink and winding people up on the internet?


----------



## mjr (2 Apr 2022)

Milzy said:


> Did you all know that the vaccines were approved but approved for emergency use only?


That's not been true in the UK for about a year! I forget which got full approval first but I'm pretty sure it was April. You need to ask your farmer for some fresher bull shoot!


> Did you know I had mine then got Covid yet some of the population decided not to have any jabs & didn’t catch any Covid that they knew about?
> The vaccines work as much as what sanctions do to stop wars.


That's just gibberish.


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## Alex321 (3 Apr 2022)

Milzy said:


> Did you all know that the vaccines were approved but approved for emergency use only?.


False.

That was only true for a very few weeks after they started to be rolled out.



Milzy said:


> Did you know I had mine then got Covid yet some of the population decided not to have any jabs & didn’t catch any Covid that they knew about?



Of course. That is always the way, with just about any disease. Very few vaccines are 100% effective, and I don't think there is any disease which is 100% contagious.



Milzy said:


> The vaccines work as much as what sanctions do to stop wars.



No, they are orders of magnitude more effective.


----------



## ColinJ (3 Apr 2022)

Alex321 said:


> No, they [vaccines] are orders of magnitude more effective.


Pah, tell that to all the people still suffering from smallpox!



Oh, er, hang on a minute...


----------



## Supersuperleeds (3 Apr 2022)

I tested positive today. Feels like man flu, started feeling unwell on Friday.


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## kingrollo (3 Apr 2022)

The figures from the Zoe app for my area Dudley - west Midlands are horrendous - easily the highest since the pandemic began.

Sure the official stats will plumet now free testing has ended - but in reality most everyone is going to get it - not sure what that will look like in a couple of weeks.


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## mjr (3 Apr 2022)

kingrollo said:


> Sure the official stats will plumet now free testing has ended - but in reality most everyone is going to get it - not sure what that will look like in a couple of weeks.


Probably lots of people with coughs and sniffles, some people having serious or lingering problems and some people dying unnecessarily.

Three official stats won't plummet: the ONS random-testing survey that gives the "1 in 13" figure (currently); the number in hospital; and the deaths.


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## Tenacious Sloth (4 Apr 2022)

Supersuperleeds said:


> I tested positive today. Feels like man flu, started feeling unwell on Friday.



Surely not as debilitating as Man Flu or you wouldn’t be capable of posting on an internet forum?


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## Supersuperleeds (4 Apr 2022)

Tenacious Sloth said:


> Surely not as debilitating as Man Flu or you wouldn’t be capable of posting on an internet forum?


I get Vegan Man Flu. I let everyone know I've got it, but crack on anyway.


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## Soltydog (4 Apr 2022)

Supersuperleeds said:


> I tested positive today. Feels like man flu, started feeling unwell on Friday.





Supersuperleeds said:


> I get Vegan Man Flu. I let everyone know I've got it, but crack on anyway.


I tested positive today  must have caught it off you  tbh I've had cold like symptoms for over a week, but 2 tests last week came back -ve so carried on as normal  Having worked throughout the lockdowns, I'm surprised it's taken so long for me to be +ve

Vegan man flu isn't as meaty as real man flu, so you'll be fine to crack on anyway  
Speedy recovery mate, hope you're well soon


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## mjr (6 Apr 2022)

React test and track study ends due to government funding cut, mention of new XE variant: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ngland-may-rise-as-cases-in-over-55s-increase


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## Ajax Bay (6 Apr 2022)

mjr said:


> React test and track study ends due to government funding cut, mention of new XE variant


Without Grauniad slant, here are the bases:
Prevalence-of-covid-19-remains-at-high-levels-across-the-country
Plan-for-living-with-covid
"The Test & Trace programme cost £15.7 billion in 2021/22. With Omicron now the dominant variant and less severe, levels of high immunity across the country and a range of strategies in place including vaccines, treatments, and public health knowledge, the value for taxpayers’ money is now less clear. Free testing should rightly be focused on at-risk groups.
"Our world-leading ONS survey will allow us to continue to track the virus in granular detail to help us spot any surges in the virus."
Finding and choosing a private coronavirus (COVID-19) test provider
"UKHSA’s most recent variant technical briefing includes examination of a number of recombinant variants which have been identified in the UK, . . . [and] new analysis examines 3 recombinants, known as XF, XE, and XD. Of these, XD and XF are recombinants of Delta and Omicron BA.1, while XE is a recombinant of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2."
"A total 637 cases of XE – a recombinant of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 – have been confirmed in the UK so far [since mid Jan]. There is currently insufficient evidence to draw conclusions about growth advantage or other properties of this variant. XE, has shown a variable growth rate and we cannot yet confirm whether it has a true growth advantage. So far there is not enough evidence to draw conclusions about transmissibility, severity or vaccine effectiveness."


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## Ajax Bay (10 Apr 2022)

For those who would appreciate a succinct appraisal of where COVID (still) is in UK, I commend the Indie Sage recording from Friday, specifically Prof Pagel's superb summary (@2:11 to @23:02) in this:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8v8NboIKoAU






My only comment is that (citation required) over half the people admitted to hospital are not being admitted 'because of' COVID-19; they are testing +ve on admission. Of course this still places an additional burden on the hospital as they seek to avoid nosocomial infections.


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## mjr (10 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> My only comment is that (citation required) over half the people admitted to hospital are not being admitted 'because of' COVID-19; they are testing +ve on admission.


BBC Look East this week explicitly stated the reverse to be true in the East of England: the vast majority of covid hospital cases here were admitted because of covid.

My local hospital had a bad record of hospital-acquired covid in earlier waves but I think they're probably listening to their infection control teams more lately.


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## Ajax Bay (10 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> My only comment is that (citation required) over half the people admitted to hospital are not being admitted 'because of' COVID-19; they are testing +ve on admission. Of course this still places an additional burden on the hospital as they seek to avoid nosocomial infections.





mjr said:


> BBC Look East this week explicitly stated the reverse to be true in the East of England: the vast majority of covid hospital cases here were admitted because of covid.


As I indicated ["citation required"], I had not checked this comment and your report of the ever-reliable BBC Look East encouraged me to look for data. Their "vast majority" does appear well wide of the mark. I wonder on what they base this "explicit" assertion. Likely the devil will be in definition detail.
In England (5 Apr) 15,331 patients had confirmed COVID and of those there were 6,509 "patients who are being treated primarily for COVID-19". (East of England: 1673 total of which 608 primary.) I am surprised at the widely different proportions from NHS area to area and suspect data quality.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
There are various caveats on definitions which they try to address.

Beds confirmed COVIDPrimarily for COVIDName05-Apr-2205-Apr-22​ENGLAND15,3316,509​East of England1,673608​London2,310672​Midlands2,812975​North East & Yorkshire2,6731,319​North West2,2761,000​South East2,2561,159​South West1,331776​


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## mjr (10 Apr 2022)

Are you mixing occupancy and admissions data there?


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## Ajax Bay (10 Apr 2022)

mjr said:


> BBC Look East this week explicitly stated the reverse to be true in the East of England: the vast majority of covid hospital cases here were admitted because of covid.





mjr said:


> Are you mixing occupancy and admissions data there?


The data I offered was to address your 'BBC Look East' statement, not to substantiate my comment.
I see a "covid hospital case" as the same as bed occupancy with COVID.
And "admitted because of covid" synonymous with "patients who are being treated primarily for COVID-19".
The data I shared were occupancy, extracted from: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...04/Primary-Diagnosis-Supplement-20220407.xlsx


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## mjr (11 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> The data I offered was to address your 'BBC Look East' statement, not to substantiate my comment.
> I see a "covid hospital case" as the same as bed occupancy with COVID.
> And "admitted because of covid" synonymous with "patients who are being treated primarily for COVID-19".
> The data I shared were occupancy, extracted from: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...04/Primary-Diagnosis-Supplement-20220407.xlsx


You could just have said "Yes" when I asked if you were mixing occupancy and admissions data. The BBC reported about admissions. You posted stuff about bed occupancy. That doesn't really address admissions. I'm not going to ask the BBC if they goofed on the strength of that.

I also note that the link you posted earlier https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/ says "The majority of inpatients with Covid-19 are admitted as a result of the infection." Of course, they might be talking about all time, not current admissions.

Another spreadsheet on that page makes me think the BBC may well be correct that most covid cases are admitted due to covid in the East of England, as it looks like 1133 of 1483 new hospital covid cases in the last week reported caught covid in the community rather than in hospital or care. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...d-admissions-and-beds-publication-220407.xlsx

But I'm doing this quickly due to lack of time so I'd welcome anyone telling me if I misread something.


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## shep (11 Apr 2022)

Why are people so concerned about stats?


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## Ajax Bay (11 Apr 2022)

mjr said:


> BBC Look East this week explicitly stated the reverse to be true in the East of England: the vast majority of covid hospital cases here were admitted because of covid.





Ajax Bay said:


> The data I offered was to address your 'BBC Look East' statement, not to substantiate my comment.
> I see a "covid hospital case" as the same as bed occupancy with COVID.
> And "admitted because of covid" synonymous with "patients who are being treated primarily for COVID-19".





mjr said:


> You could just have said "Yes" when I asked if you were mixing occupancy and admissions data. The BBC reported about admissions. You posted stuff about bed occupancy. That doesn't really address admissions. I'm not going to ask the BBC if they goofed on the strength of that. Another spreadsheet on that page makes me think the BBC may well be correct that most covid cases are admitted due to covid in the East of England, as it looks like 1133 of 1483 new hospital covid cases in the last week reported caught covid in the community rather than in hospital or care.



I could have done so, but I wasn't mixing up the two, as I sought to explain (see above). I explained why: sorry it was not clear enough for you. I appreciate you may argue over the definitions I offered (in fact bit surprised you haven't (but maybe just lack of time  )).
Please don't bother the BBC, even if they do seem to be wrong.
Of course the vast majority (76%) of "new hospital covid cases" caught covid "in the community": do you think the majority caught it in hospital? But the key discimination is that the "new covid cases" are divided into patients admitted "primarily" Because of COVID, and patients admitted who, on testing, are found to have COVID, or subsequently catch it in hospital. See the figures in my post above.
@shep Covid is not 'going away' but the way the community deals with it is best done so with the background of knowledge. Why don't you listen to the Indie Sage 20 minutes (linked above)? Only then will you realise just how interesting this is and where the UK is now.
In other news my aged mother had her second booster last week.


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## Ajax Bay (11 Apr 2022)

I thought this was a thought provoking article (Time) on the primary transmission mechanism for COVID-19 "airborne" and the resistance to actually using that word, even though, from the start, its use would have helped the public (not the medics, for whom that word has special meaning) to understand.
https://time.com/6162065/covid-19-airborne-transmission-confusion/
"If even President Trump knew in February 2020, “You just breathe the air, and that’s how it’s passed,” why wasn’t the public told clearly the virus was airborne?"
"We and our colleagues, scientists and engineers who have studied airborne particles for our entire careers, met with W.H.O. in April 2020 to express our concern that airborne transmission was important in the spread of COVID-19. W.H.O. vehemently rejected our suggestion and painted us as trespassers who did not understand what was happening in hospitals."
"in December 2021, W.H.O. finally used the word “airborne” on one webpage to explain how COVID-19 spreads between people, although the organization’s social media posts continue to completely avoid the word. The word remains verboten for C.D.C."
*Ventilation*, peeps, especially in schools and offices.
"public health leaders began to acknowledge that it could occur in special situations, namely those with poor ventilation. What they might not have realized is that, relative to hospitals, nearly all other buildings—homes, schools, restaurants, and many workplaces and gyms—would qualify as such special situations. In these buildings, indoor air might be replaced with outdoor air once or twice per hour, whereas in hospitals the ventilation rate is at least 6 air changes per hour in patient rooms and 15 in operating rooms."


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## mjr (12 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> I thought this was a thought provoking article (Time) on the primary transmission mechanism for COVID-19 "airborne" and the resistance to actually using that word, even though, from the start, its use would have helped the public (not the medics, for whom that word has special meaning) to understand.
> https://time.com/6162065/covid-19-airborne-transmission-confusion/


I linked the Wired article that links some time ago:


mjr said:


> Here is a very well-written report on that whole droplet/aerosol handwashing/ventilation debate from early in the pandemic: https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/


and does anyone really think Trump knew, rather than guessing as usual? Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day...


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## PaulSB (12 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> I thought this was a thought provoking article (Time) on the primary transmission mechanism for COVID-19 "airborne" and the resistance to actually using that word, even though, from the start, its use would have helped the public (not the medics, for whom that word has special meaning) to understand.
> https://time.com/6162065/covid-19-airborne-transmission-confusion/
> "If even President Trump knew in February 2020, “You just breathe the air, and that’s how it’s passed,” why wasn’t the public told clearly the virus was airborne?"
> "We and our colleagues, scientists and engineers who have studied airborne particles for our entire careers, met with W.H.O. in April 2020 to express our concern that airborne transmission was important in the spread of COVID-19. W.H.O. vehemently rejected our suggestion and painted us as trespassers who did not understand what was happening in hospitals."
> ...


While i understand the clear distinction being made between "airborne" and droplets I would say it was very clear from the outset Covid is an "airborne" in the sense to the public "it's in the air" and can be breathed in. Until I read this article I was not aware of the distinction drawn between the two in the medical world however I feel sure the idea of the virus being "in the air" was clear to all.

Why else would we be asked to socially distance, wear masks, cough into elbows etc? Possibly one could argue surface cleaning etc. was a distraction as I believe it's now thought to only be responsible for 15%, at most, of transmission. I'd argue these surface precautions were necessary if only because they act(ed) as a strong reminder of the threat Covid presented.

From a very young age we are taught to cough into a hanky/tissue, cover mouths, avoid coughing/sneezing on others and so on. While the vast majority may not understand or be aware of the distinction drawn in this article I'm sure all understand the concept of a virus being spread through the air and therefore, in layman's terms, airborne.

It's an American article perhaps things are different in the US?


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## Phaeton (12 Apr 2022)

PaulSB said:


> From a very young age we are taught to cough into a hanky/tissue, cover mouths, avoid coughing/sneezing on others and so on.


I wonder if this is a leftover from the Spanish Flu 100 years ago, I do notice the lack of handkerchief carrying these days, along with the lack of covering the mouth/nose when coughing/sneezing from the younger generation, is it something that is dying out as being taught?


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## mjr (12 Apr 2022)

PaulSB said:


> Why else would we be asked to socially distance, wear masks, cough into elbows etc?


Because all of those also protect against spat droplet transmission? And remember, initially some leaders told their populations not to wear any sort of masks, sometimes for good reason (shortage of masks for health and care workers) and sometimes not.



> Possibly one could argue surface cleaning etc. was a distraction as I believe it's now thought to only be responsible for 15%, at most, of transmission. I'd argue these surface precautions were necessary if only because they act(ed) as a strong reminder of the threat Covid presented.


I'd argue they were necessary because a 15% reduction of transmission would still be worth having at the relatively low cost (compared to lockdowns and shoot).



> From a very young age we are taught to cough into a hanky/tissue, cover mouths, avoid coughing/sneezing on others and so on.


We might have been. It really doesn't seem like people in general were. I hadn't really noticed until this pandemic just how few do such things.



Phaeton said:


> I wonder if this is a leftover from the Spanish Flu 100 years ago, I do notice the lack of handkerchief carrying these days, along with the lack of covering the mouth/nose when coughing/sneezing from the younger generation, is it something that is dying out as being taught?


Or is it just something that people in Britain in general were no longer doing? It wasn't only youngsters who were spitting and snotting in verges, or coughing and sneezing uncovered in enclosed spaces; and there were few people who can remember the 1918 Flu (please stop tarring Spain) alive at the start of this.


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## classic33 (12 Apr 2022)

3634146


mjr said:


> Because all of those also protect against spat droplet transmission? And remember, initially some leaders told their populations not to wear any sort of masks, sometimes for good reason (shortage of masks for health and care workers) and sometimes not.
> 
> 
> I'd argue they were necessary because a 15% reduction of transmission would still be worth having at the relatively low cost (compared to lockdowns and shoot).
> ...


First hit, gives Spanish Flu. Don't think he was tarring Spain.


----------



## mjr (12 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> (in fact bit surprised you haven't (but maybe just lack of time  )).


Not having a decent reply does not excuse such personal attacks.



> Of course the vast majority (76%) of "new hospital covid cases" caught covid "in the community": do you think the majority caught it in hospital?


No, of course not. That is a terrible attempt at distraction.



> But the key discimination is that the "new covid cases" are divided into patients admitted "primarily" Because of COVID, and patients admitted who, on testing, are found to have COVID, or subsequently catch it in hospital.


What are you quoting there? And that's not the key distinction! A patient admitted "primarily" because of something else like breathing difficulties or low blood oxygen and covid is only diagnosed on admission testing: they are still probably there "due to covid" like the BBC claimed. Any fall in admissions due to previously-detected covid may say more about the dismantling of public testing than anything else. Testing is on the slide as most of the remaining test centres close and distributed rapid tests are used up as illustrated by this graph from gov.uk:








> See the figures in my post above.


Those figures are occupancy and tell us little about admissions.


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## Ajax Bay (12 Apr 2022)

mjr said:


> Not having a decent reply does not excuse such personal attacks. etc etc . . . fall in admissions due to previously-detected covid may say more about the dismantling of public testing. . . . Those figures are occupancy and tell us little about admissions.


Your assessment of "personal attacks" has a very very low threshold. Glad to see you've found more time.
That is a terrible attempt at distraction.
_" . . fall in admissions due to previously-detected covid may say more about the dismantling of public testing"_
That is a terrible attempt at distraction. Anyone being admitted to hospital will either have an NHS arranged test beforehand or be tested on emergency admission. Admissions "because" of COVID-19 is because of severe COVID-19 symptoms: the main reason for being treated overnight (+) in hospital. All other admissions are "with not because of" COVID-19.
_"Those figures are occupancy and tell us little about admissions."_ Correct: I did not seek to tell you about admissions, nor purport so to do. Please keep up. Apologies for boring others who are.


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## PaulSB (12 Apr 2022)

mjr said:


> Because all of those also protect against spat droplet transmission? And remember, initially some leaders told their populations not to wear any sort of masks, sometimes for good reason (shortage of masks for health and care workers) and sometimes not.
> 
> 
> I'd argue they were necessary because a 15% reduction of transmission would still be worth having at the relatively low cost (compared to lockdowns and shoot).


As regards the first sentence, yes of course and I completely agree. I doubt the general public had any thought these precautions were to protect against medically defined transmission. The vast majority would simply see transmission as airborne in the same way we do coughs, colds, flu etc.

Again I agree. I only phrased my comment as "possibly" because I know there are those who would argue it is/was a waste of time. I've been in favour of all the precautions the general public have been asked to take and feel we should all still be wearing masks and hand sanitising.


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## mjr (12 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> That is a terrible attempt at distraction. Anyone being admitted to hospital will either have an NHS arranged test beforehand or be tested on emergency admission. Admissions "because" of COVID-19 is because of severe COVID-19 symptoms: the main reason for being treated overnight (+) in hospital. All other admissions are "with not because of" COVID-19.


Yes, that's a terrible attempt at distraction. Of course, if you define "because of COVID-19" to be very very narrow and impractical, then you can claim that most admissions aren't that and that all is well despite the NHS Confederation's warning that "this Easter in the NHS is as bad as any winter [...and...] about half of those people are in hospital because of Covid".



> _"Those figures are occupancy and tell us little about admissions."_ Correct: I did not seek to tell you about admissions, nor purport so to do. Please keep up. Apologies for boring others who are.


So, your reply https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6707674 was not replying to the post of mine it quoted, as it appeared from claiming "to look for data" about it, but it was actually making (repeating?) an entirely different and rather uninformative point. 

I'm sure many of us would find it much easier to keep up if your posts didn't keep taking us off into the long grass.


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## Ajax Bay (12 Apr 2022)

and at no point have I "claim[ed] that . . . all is well [with the NHS]".
NHS Confederation 'warning' versus data?
Edit: "and 'about' half those people (who have tested +ve for COVID-19] are in hospital NOT because of COVID-19", as said.
Is that the 'royal we'?
Is there any short grass left on the wicket? (rhetorical)


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## mjr (12 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> and at no point have I "claim[ed] that . . . all is well [with the NHS]".


It's not really a quote any more if more than half the words are changed.



> Is that the 'royal we'?
> Is there any short grass left on the wicket? (rhetorical)


I'm beginning to wonder if the we-we is being taken or all the grass has been smoked. (rhetorical)


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## Ajax Bay (12 Apr 2022)

Came across this in my travels while out watering the grass:

View: https://youtu.be/k9FpS8nbYhs?t=110
(not about the USA)
Maybe some will find it easier to digest: at 1:50 for 18 seconds.
58%
If you hang in there, find bonus content: SARS-CoV-2 virus concentration (copies / ml of US sewage).


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## classic33 (12 Apr 2022)

From the link given above, it seems Philadelphia will be the first state to reintroduce compulsory mask wearing in indoor venues, from Easter Monday.

https://theconservativetreehouse.co...datory-indoor-mask-mandate-starting-april-18/


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## Ajax Bay (24 Apr 2022)

Indie Sage's Friday summary slide:





Elaborations:
2. Don't know what they are referring to by "early vaccine rollout" - as opposed to late vaccine rollout? Or just "despite high levels of vaccination and boosters"?
3. They reported that of patients in hospital testing positive for COVID-19, 23% had caught it in hospital which they thought 'worrying'.
4. Deaths (with +ve test within 28 days) still up at 1000ish. Would be expected to fall given rate at #1.
6. Are there still problems of inadequate stocks of PPE? As for testing, all elective admissions have a PCR arranged 3 days before and are then advised to isolate in the days before admission. So I guess this is alluding to people not being able to do a (free) LFT before attending A&E (did they use to?).
7-10. Focus of this meeting was 'Long COVID'.


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## classic33 (24 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Indie Sage's Friday summary slide:
> View attachment 641745
> 
> Elaborations:
> ...


Local A&E had a small booth in the carpark, where you were directed to go to do the test before going into the A&E.

Never tested when I arrived by ambulance. But the amount of PPE in use, and the measures taken within the department was unbelievable.


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## mjr (25 Apr 2022)

classic33 said:


> Local A&E had a small booth in the carpark, where you were directed to go to do the test before going into the A&E.
> 
> Never tested when I arrived by ambulance. But the amount of PPE in use, and the measures taken within the department was unbelievable.


Unbelievable as in lots or surprisingly little?


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## Pat "5mph" (25 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> So I guess this is alluding to people not being able to do a (free) LFT before attending A&E (did they use to?).


I clean in a hospital.
W
This hospital does not have an A&E, but a Minor Injuries and an Out of Hours.
I have not worked in the Minor Injury unit, so I don't know what they do there, but the Out of Hours department lateral flows everyone that comes through the door, even when LFs were free.
On another note, I wonder why the Chinese still implement lockdowns, while here we decided to end all restrictions.
Do they know something we don't?


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## Ajax Bay (25 Apr 2022)

Pat 5mph said:


> On another note, I wonder why the Chinese still implement lockdowns, while here we decided to end all restrictions.
> Do they know something we don't?


John Campbell has a general critique (aka rant) about the 'lock 'em up Jock' approach that seems to have a wave of the Canute about it.
Their approach to the science trumps Trump, iyswim.
He calls this video, with intended supreme irony "Learning from China".

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TryFMOekX8w


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## Seevio (25 Apr 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> John Campbell has a general critique (aka rant) about the 'lock 'em up Jock' approach that seems to have a wave of the Canute about it.
> Their approach to the science trumps Trump, iyswim.
> He calls this video, with intended supreme irony "Learning from China".
> 
> View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TryFMOekX8w




I watched this earlier. I was disappointed the video ended when it did as it was starting to have a bit of a lizard overlords and fake moon landings feel to it by the end.


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## markemark (26 Apr 2022)

Pat "5mph" said:


> On another note, I wonder why the Chinese still implement lockdowns, while here we decided to end all restrictions.
> Do they know something we don't?


They haven’t built up much immunity through prior infection and their vaccine is inferior in preventing serious symptoms compared to the jabs we’ve had.


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## mjr (26 Apr 2022)

Pat "5mph" said:


> On another note, I wonder why the Chinese still implement lockdowns, while here we decided to end all restrictions.
> Do they know something we don't?


On NACA, @cookiemonster suggested dropping the "Zero Covid" policy is politically impossible before the autumn party conference.


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## cookiemonster (26 Apr 2022)

mjr said:


> On NACA, @cookiemonster suggested dropping the "Zero Covid" policy is politically impossible before the autumn party



From my post in the 'Chi-na' thread on NACA -

_Apart from the fact that the current Chinese Gov are a bunch of cnuts, there are two reasons why that are being reported here.

One, the Chinese made vaccines have been proven to be not as good as the Chinese people are being told. Sinovac, the main Chinese vaccine, has an efficacy rate of approx. 70%, about 20% lower than the Western made vaccines (which are not available on the Chinese mainland). Omicron has shown how ineffective their vaccines are hence the strict lockdowns.

Second, in November, Emperor Xinnie the Pooh will be inaugurated for a third term as President. This is huge and something that has not been seen since the days of Mao. Xi ripped up the 2 term rule, introduced by Deng Xiaoping when he wrested control of China, to ensure that China never gets ruled again by an autocrat with too much unchecked power. This will be stage managed to the minutest details and absolutely nothing at all will be allowed to disrupt that, including Omicron._

As a comparison, here in HK, all restrictions are in the process of being removed. We've been told that they'll be gone by the end of May.


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## Ajax Bay (26 Apr 2022)

cookiemonster said:


> Apart from the fact that the current Chinese Gov are a bunch of cnuts, there are two reasons why that are being reported here.


As in King daffodil, I presume.
Meanwhile in Taiwan, more sensible heads seem to prevail, bowing to the inevitable, without a party congress to affect policy.
This emasculation of China's productivity as successive cities lock down will have damaging effects across the globe, as will the loss of a proportion of Ukraine's harvest combined with the logistic friction because Odessa port being blockaded (off topic).


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## classic33 (11 Nov 2022)

Cases are on the up locally. Not by any large numbers, but every week for the last two months has seen an increase.


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## Phaeton (11 Nov 2022)

I took my first test this year as I've not been feeling well for 10 days or so, strangely after having both my booster & flu jab 2 weeks ago, it was negative but still don't feel right.


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## davidphilips (11 Nov 2022)

Phaeton said:


> I took my first test this year as I've not been feeling well for 10 days or so, strangely after having both my booster & flu jab 2 weeks ago, it was negative but still don't feel right.



Make sure to stay hydrated and make an appointment to see your doctor, hope you are better soon but dont ignore a health issue.


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## tom73 (11 Nov 2022)

classic33 said:


> Cases are on the up locally. Not by any large numbers, but every week for the last two months has seen an increase.



This is the problem testing is almost been killed off. So real true figures are wide off the mark stopping testing won’t make it magically go away. Numbers and severity maybe less than in the past but the effects are still high. Still mask up in shop ect as I put it someone who said “Still wear one if your vulnerable can understand” My reply was I’m not but my wife’s patients are. That killed the conversation.


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## deptfordmarmoset (12 Nov 2022)

classic33 said:


> Cases are on the up locally. Not by any large numbers, but every week for the last two months has seen an increase.


The Zoe app is showing a few hotspots. Leeds get to dark red but neighbouring Bradford levels are far lower. In fact, Leeds looks like a very isolated hotspot. Other areas that get to the higher level maroon such as Herefordshire and Swindon have higher levels in adjoining areas.

(Windsor's maroon is surrounded by areas with not enough data so it's hard to say whether it's as isolated as it looks )


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## deptfordmarmoset (12 Nov 2022)

Phaeton said:


> I took my first test this year as I've not been feeling well for 10 days or so, strangely after having both my booster & flu jab 2 weeks ago, it was negative but still don't feel right.



I had a fairly extended period of fatigue and muscle aches after my flu jab. The booster was fine, though I'd had that a couple of weeks earlier. I also did a PCR and antibody test as part of the ONS infection survey at that time which came back negative for infection and positive for ''higher level'' antibodies. So it wasn't covid - either flu vaccine reaction or something else.


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## midlife (12 Nov 2022)

Can't find the 22% deaths increase on the Govt websites. Any links. All I could find was..

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.32JN4VX-1


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## DRM (12 Nov 2022)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> The Zoe app is showing a few hotspots. Leeds get to dark red but neighbouring Bradford levels are far lower. In fact, Leeds looks like a very isolated hotspot. Other areas that get to the higher level maroon such as Herefordshire and Swindon have higher levels in adjoining areas.
> 
> (Windsor's maroon is surrounded by areas with not enough data so it's hard to say whether it's as isolated as it looks )
> View attachment 667683



I actually find that information/data hard to believe wrt Leeds being more infected than Bradford, I believe that cases are not being reported, and when the original outbreak was ongoing Bradford was a hotspot due to the huge amount of multi generational families all living in one house, along with flagrant breaking of lockdown rules, I was even told that cases were not being reported because if the person died their funeral has to take place in 24 hours, it seems locally people are getting covid but are not getting anywhere near as ill as when covid first struck


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## Ajax Bay (12 Nov 2022)

classic33 said:


> Cases are on the up locally. Not by any large numbers, but every week for the last two months has seen an increase.







@classic33 see black line, and hope you are OK.


tom73 said:


> This is the problem testing is almost been killed off. So real true figures are wide off the mark stopping testing won’t make it magically go away. Numbers and severity maybe less than in the past but the effects are still high.


The above graph is ONS estimates and does not depend on individual testing, which as you say is very low and the data are 'worthless'. However thanks to the ONS surveillance, this is not a "problem". Prevalence averages 2% (21,000 per million), well down from a month ago, and I suggest the ONS data's quality is a magnitude better than the 'Zoe app'.
As for @Milzy link with no comment, the case for vaccinating under 12s seems to me to have been weak from the start. The case (JCVI) for vaccinating children (U12s) relied on the beneficial effect to the school student/child's 'community'. Vaccination reduces the chance of infection (any age) and whether or not it reduces transmission, if a person hasn't caught it they can't pass it on (important in a school context). Since the risk of serious illness caused by COVID-19 was very very low in healthy children the case probably turned on whether families could go for summer holidays abroad or not, rather than any medical case.


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## Ajax Bay (12 Nov 2022)

@Milzy - the MP quoted stuff which was factually incorrect. Please try to research this yourself with a bit of diligence before posting.
*Mod Edit: the factually incorrect post has now been deleted.*
https://fullfact.org/health/vaccine-safety-westminster-debate/
"This is misleading.The German health ministry did mistakenly tweet, with reference to the Paul Ehrlich Institute, that one in 5,000 people had been affected by a serious side effect following a Covid-19 vaccine earlier this year. But it then deleted that tweet and later clarified that the reports weren’t known to be caused by the vaccine, just that they had happened afterwards."
Edited to add: MHRA (3 Nov): "The benefits of the vaccines in preventing COVID-19 and serious complications associated with COVID-19 far outweigh any currently known side effects in the majority of patients." "Our ongoing review of suspected adverse events [since autumn booster campaign start] has not revealed any new safety concerns."
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...irus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting


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## classic33 (12 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> View attachment 667688
> 
> @classic33 see black line, and hope you are OK.
> 
> ...


Black line is Northern Ireland, across the Irish Sea.

As of Thursday, still negative.


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## rockyroller (12 Nov 2022)

I wonder if there is more sex going on in those hot spot areas


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## Ajax Bay (12 Nov 2022)

rockyroller said:


> I wonder if there is more sex going on in those hot spot areas


Only with a girl called Zoe, I reckon.
Here are some technique tips for you: https://joinzoe.com/post/tim-spector-gut-tips


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## deptfordmarmoset (12 Nov 2022)

DRM said:


> I actually find that information/data hard to believe wrt Leeds being more infected than Bradford, I believe that cases are not being reported, and when the original outbreak was ongoing Bradford was a hotspot due to the huge amount of multi generational families all living in one house, along with flagrant breaking of lockdown rules, I was even told that cases were not being reported because if the person died their funeral has to take place in 24 hours, it seems locally people are getting covid but are not getting anywhere near as ill as when covid first struck



I haven't followed Bradford figures but if they are ''early adopters,'' as seems to have been the case for London in general, it may be that the wave has already hit and, with fewer still susceptible people, their rates have dropped lower again.


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## Julia9054 (12 Nov 2022)

Let us assume that the figure of a 22% increase in deaths in the 5 - 11 year old age group is genuine (I have searched for this statistic and cannot find it anywhere)
I have looked at the ons childhood deaths figures available on the web. The age group from ons is 5 - 9 years.
The last publicly available year is 2020 where there were 194 deaths in England and Wales. 22% of this figure is 43 deaths.
The pattern of deaths in the previous 10 years shows a general slight downward trend but varies up and down each year with the highest number of deaths for the 10 year period being 270 deaths in 2017.
There has been more than a 22% increase in deaths over the 2020 figure in 7 out of the previous 10 years.
An extra 43 deaths over and above the figure for 2020, brings us to 237. Very similar to the figure for 2019 of 232 deaths.


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## Milzy (12 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> @Milzy - the MP quoted stuff which was factually incorrect. Please try to research this yourself with a bit of diligence before posting.
> *Mod Edit: the factually incorrect post has now been deleted.*
> https://fullfact.org/health/vaccine-safety-westminster-debate/
> "This is misleading.The German health ministry did mistakenly tweet, with reference to the Paul Ehrlich Institute, that one in 5,000 people had been affected by a serious side effect following a Covid-19 vaccine earlier this year. But it then deleted that tweet and later clarified that the reports weren’t known to be caused by the vaccine, just that they had happened afterwards."
> ...



Could there not be any slight chance of a cover up going on? Why are people banging on about this died suddenly stuff?


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## Ajax Bay (12 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> https://fullfact.org/health/vaccine-safety-westminster-debate/
> "This is misleading.The German health ministry did mistakenly tweet, with reference to the Paul Ehrlich Institute, that one in 5,000 people had been affected by a serious side effect following a Covid-19 vaccine earlier this year. But it then deleted that tweet and later clarified that the reports weren’t known to be caused by the vaccine, just that they had happened afterwards."


MP repeating this (petition debate) was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Chope (have a read!)


Julia9054 said:


> Let us assume that the figure of a 22% increase in deaths in the 5 - 11 year old age group is genuine (I have searched for this statistic and cannot find it anywhere)


@Julia9054 If you look at the link I shared early, this 22% was fake news (correlation not causation), a mis-speak from the German MoH (in a tweet, deleted and clarified shortly after) - I had posted the factcheck text. Having said that, I like your analysis.
Not sure I think that a recording of an MP speaking in Parliament (WH) should be deleted (by the mods) as 'false news' though. Lots of people have had side effects associated with vaccination. Since the number of vaccine doses given in UK is 9 figures, that's not surprising. There is a good reporting system (yellow card).
Stop trolling @Milzy; add value.


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## Alex321 (12 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Could there not be any slight chance of a cover up going on?


Not really



Milzy said:


> Why are people banging on about this died suddenly stuff?



Nobody with any real knowledge is doing so.


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## KnittyNorah (12 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Could there not be any slight chance of a cover up going on? Why are people banging on about this died suddenly stuff?


1. No, really not to any significant degree. Not in the 'western' world, anyhow. Information coming out of China is ...different.
2. Why? For all sorts of reasons, vanishingly-rarely good ones. There are, I believe, many good people who are misled by other, less-good people, with agendas of their own, into 'banging on' about it. 

Can you give us more detail about any particular concerns of yours?


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## Milzy (12 Nov 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> 1. No, really not to any significant degree. Not in the 'western' world, anyhow. Information coming out of China is ...different.
> 2. Why? For all sorts of reasons, vanishingly-rarely good ones. There are, I believe, many good people who are misled by other, less-good people, with agendas of their own, into 'banging on' about it.
> 
> Can you give us more detail about any particular concerns of yours?



I have a lot of concerns but life is too short. My mate Colin has had 4 & he’s fit as a fiddle so I’ll use him as a lab rat. I’m not drinking the koolaide of conspiracy theorists as long as old Colin keeps running & riding his bike. He never gets unwell and has to pretend he is sometimes to get time off work.


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## lazybloke (13 Nov 2022)

_Slightly _annoying to arrive at a covid vax centre on Saturday lunchtime and find the staff have packed up and gone home, particularly as I had a confirmed booking for a person with a clinical vulnerability. 

One staff member was still locking up - obviously unable to offer jabs. 
Also unable to offer an explanation or apology! Not impressed.


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## mjr (13 Nov 2022)

lazybloke said:


> _Slightly _annoying to arrive at a covid vax centre on Saturday lunchtime and find the staff have packed up and gone home, particularly as I had a confirmed booking for a person with a clinical vulnerability.
> 
> One staff member was still locking up - obviously unable to offer jabs.
> Also unable to offer an explanation or apology! Not impressed.


Some vax centres seem to have little connection with or interest in what the booking system is booking.


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## lazybloke (14 Nov 2022)

lazybloke said:


> _Slightly _annoying to arrive at a covid vax centre on Saturday lunchtime and find the staff have packed up and gone home, particularly as I had a confirmed booking for a person with a clinical vulnerability.
> 
> One staff member was still locking up - obviously unable to offer jabs.
> Also unable to offer an explanation or apology! Not impressed.



Rebooked on a schoolday which means missing a couple of lessons.
She was very keen to miss RE; chip off the old block.


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## Ajax Bay (14 Nov 2022)

Hands up who didn't try to get off RI: (was "instruction" not "education" for us)?


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## winjim (14 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Hands up who didn't try to get off RI: (was "instruction" not "education" for us)?



Only because it was taken in a Portakabin so it was bloody freezing and uncomfortable.


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## KnittyNorah (14 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Hands up who didn't try to get off RI: (was "instruction" not "education" for us)?



Hand up here!

I was fortunate enough to have an interesting, entertaining and excellent RI teacher for a great many years; he was a Welsh methodist minister (in a C of E grammar school in Cheshire) and despite its name it was definitely more education rather than mere instruction. As 11 and 12 year olds, it was indeed instruction - about different religions and the basic tenets of different beliefs, both current and historical - and as we got older it gradually became more of a philosophy and ethics class with politics and current affairs thrown in when appropriate. 
Mind you I don't know what the O level RE class studied, I wasn't doing it for O level but it was compulsory nevertheless, and led into the (also compulsory) General Studies we had to do in 6th form.


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## Ajax Bay (14 Nov 2022)

UK HSA Summary - SARS-CoV-2 variants (updated 1 Nov, my precis)
Variant surveillance analyses - data cut-off 24 Oct
During recent peak, the variants present were BA.5 sub-lineages and some mutations. Potential for these: BQ.1 (and sub-lineages), XBB and other similar lineages to cause a further near-term increase in transmission. BA.5 (incl sub-lineages) remains dominant: >75% of all sequenced samples.
BQ.1 (V-22OCT-01) is a BA.5 sub-lineage . . . has been designated as a variant on the basis of rapid growth [not just in UK]. XBB (V-22OCT-02) . . . designated a variant based on the significant number mutations and rapid growth in Singapore: 1,086 samples worldwide (639 Singapore, 18 UK).


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## roadrash (14 Nov 2022)

Me and mrs roadrash went to my lads parents evening at school , he was 15 at the time , one teacher asked how long we had been jehovas witnesses, obviously I said , we arent , he told them he was jehovas witness to get out of doing R.E, .............10/10 for effort


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## KnittyNorah (14 Nov 2022)

roadrash said:


> Me and mrs roadrash went to my lads parents evening at school , he was 15 at the time , one teacher asked how long we had been jehovas witnesses, obviously I said , we arent , he told them he was jehovas witness to get out of doing R.E, .............10/10 for effort



LOL! A boy at my school went to the headmaster when he started (the family had moved in from another area) and said 'don't tell my parents but I'm NOT a JW and I want to do RI' and drama and all the other forbidden subjects.
Of course this wouldn't have succeeded nowadays with social media ... sad really.


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## ianbarton (14 Nov 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> Mind you I don't know what the O level RE class studied, I wasn't doing it for O level but it was compulsory nevertheless, and led into the (also compulsory) General Studies we had to do in 6th form.



That wasn't Sandbach School? Sounds very much like our teacher. I got fed up with General Studies so skipped most of the classes. Despite this I managed to get an "A" at A level


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## KnittyNorah (14 Nov 2022)

ianbarton said:


> That wasn't Sandbach School? Sounds very much like our teacher. I got fed up with General Studies so skipped most of the classes. Despite this I managed to get an "A" at A level



No - but that's basically what happened to me during General Studies!


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## Svendo (15 Nov 2022)

Same at my independent in Chester, at the time RE once a week was the only compulsory lesson in non-state schools, and pretty much everyone did General Studies A level. I think as it was an easy win ( although oxbridge and red brick universities were generally wise to this) but also it widened the curriculum for the pure sciences or humanities types.


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## KnittyNorah (15 Nov 2022)

Svendo said:


> Same at my independent in Chester, at the time RE once a week was the only compulsory lesson in non-state schools, and pretty much everyone did General Studies A level. I think as it was an easy win ( although oxbridge and red brick universities were generally wise to this) but also it widened the curriculum for the pure sciences or humanities types.



Yes, at my school all of us in 6th form had to do GS and anyone doing 3 sciences had to do a new-to-them arts/humanities subject - very wide choice available - and anyone doing 3 humanities had do one of a selection of science or science orientated subjects. I did the three straight sciences, and took O-level Russian, and a friend who was doing double maths and physics took O-level Ancient Greek. Another pal who was doing French, German and English Lit took Human Biology - and ended up changing from wanting to be a language teacher into going into nursing! 
I found Russian surprisingly useful in adult life - not with Russians, but as a helpful introduction to other Slavic languages and especially to those which use the Cyrillic alphabet.


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## mjr (16 Nov 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> I did the three straight sciences,


Which are those, why do you regard the other sciences as bent and is that in the corrupt sense or worse?


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## KnittyNorah (16 Nov 2022)

mjr said:


> Which are those, why do you regard the other sciences as bent and is that in the corrupt sense or worse?



Chemistry, physics and biology, 'straight' in that none were combined with others or separated into what might be called their component parts (which was - and possibly still is - a choice offered by some examination boards).


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## winjim (16 Nov 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> Chemistry, physics and biology, 'straight' in that none were combined with others or separated into what might be called their component parts (which was - and possibly still is - a choice offered by some examination boards).



Quite right too, I mean _bio_chemistry, what kind of made up nonsense is that?

My advice to anyone considering taking 'the' three sciences at A level especially, would be don't. Two sciences plus maths is a much better combination. My first attempt at a chemistry degree went really hardcore quantum and left me absolutely flummoxed. Even for biology, which let's face it is essentially academic birdwatching, maths is extremely useful, especially statistics. 

And of course as we know, 'science' is a different thing to 'the sciences', they're just a convenient way of packaging together some of the core concepts. They do overlap and blur into themselves and other things.


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## tom73 (16 Nov 2022)

winjim said:


> Quite right too, I mean _bio_chemistry, what kind of made up nonsense is that?
> 
> My advice to anyone considering taking 'the' three sciences at A level especially, would be don't. Two sciences plus maths is a much better combination. My first attempt at a chemistry degree went really hardcore quantum and left me absolutely flummoxed. Even for biology, which let's face it is essentially academic birdwatching, maths is extremely useful, especially statistics.
> 
> And of course as we know, 'science' is a different thing to 'the sciences', they're just a convenient way of packaging together some of the core concepts. They do overlap and blur into themselves and other things.



True try physics without good grounding in maths. You soon get in a right mess. Log graphs are fun too.


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## lazybloke (16 Nov 2022)

I gave up one of my A Level subjects, but still passed three- General Studies being one of them; it was compulosry at my 6th form.
Just as well; I wouldn't have met uni entry requirements otherwise.

The brainiacs did 5 A Levels. I was more interested in having fun; and thus the bar was set.


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## Ming the Merciless (16 Nov 2022)

Em what does any of the above have to do with the coronavirus outbreak?


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## lazybloke (16 Nov 2022)

Need some of your Loctite, @Ming the Merciless


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## Dogtrousers (16 Nov 2022)




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## Rickshaw Phil (16 Nov 2022)

If the thread could be steered back on topic now, that would be great.

Thanks.


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## cyberknight (16 Nov 2022)

winjim said:


> Quite right too, I mean _bio_chemistry, what kind of made up nonsense is that?
> 
> My advice to anyone considering taking 'the' three sciences at A level especially, would be don't. Two sciences plus maths is a much better combination. My first attempt at a chemistry degree went really hardcore quantum and left me absolutely flummoxed. Even for biology, which let's face it is essentially academic birdwatching, maths is extremely useful, especially statistics.
> 
> And of course as we know, 'science' is a different thing to 'the sciences', they're just a convenient way of packaging together some of the core concepts. They do overlap and blur into themselves and other things.



ck younger bro has a PHD in theoretical chemistry , he did maths and chemistry degrees and currently a prof at Lancs uni


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## Milzy (16 Nov 2022)

Yes yes we have all these brilliant people with PHD’s but we still got everything wrong. No humans have ever been able to contain a virus. It looks like China haven’t given up yet. Florida & Texas got it right and carried on as normal which didn’t ruin the economy. We should have accepted this pandemic as a bad thing & let it just burn through & burn out.


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## Ajax Bay (16 Nov 2022)

Rickshaw Phil said:


> If the thread could be steered back on topic now, that would be great.
> Thanks.


C'mon Phil. There's not much 'C' about now and this entertaining diversive polylogue is offering insights into 20th century subject choices which we'd have missed otherwise. IndieSAGE is on Fridays.
Can rely on @Milzy of Great Barrington to babble sense. Look at the excess death rate in Florida and Texas to help validate their assertion.


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## tom73 (16 Nov 2022)

Along with a total brake down , collapse of all health services and untold excessive deaths in all age groups.


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## Pat "5mph" (16 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> C'mon Phil. There's not much 'C' about now and this entertaining diversive polylogue is offering insights into 20th century subject choices which we'd have missed otherwise. IndieSAGE is on Fridays.
> Can rely on @Milzy of Great Barrington to babble sense. Look at the excess death rate in Florida and Texas to help validate their assertion.


Non of us mods is objecting to this thread going ot  ... yet


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## a.twiddler (16 Nov 2022)

Well I was about to say, can we get back off topic but maybe I'll just sit back and get the popcorn out.


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## Milzy (16 Nov 2022)

tom73 said:


> Along with a total brake down , collapse of all health services and untold excessive deaths in all age groups.




What about all the businesses that have gone under & all the depression plus suicides caused by draconian lock down rules? Politicians are now admitting they got it all wrong. A lot of those broke their own rules. Why were many of the worlds medical staff sacked for not taking the vaccine when they had already gone through the worst parts of the pandemic? Follow the science, the thing is science is always evolving. The whole thing was one massive shift of wealth from the poor to the rich. We have all been had in exactly the same way BrExit had just over half of the voters. Nobody wants to admit it.


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## tom73 (16 Nov 2022)

No link to increased suicides , many businesses had the writing on the wall long before. Covid on top of everything else just speeded things up.
If you think our economy would even be still alive due health services no longer working. You’re sadly wrong. Many Politicians mostly got it wrong as they failed to act quick enough , as in our case held secret meeting with crack pot scientists. Totally ignored governments own scientists and bottled it when it got hard and failed to understand even basic public health. 
As for health staff most of that was counties with history of high anti vac tripe running a mock again down to the same bunch of crack pots who have a record as sake oil merchants.


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## midlife (16 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Yes yes we have all these brilliant people with PHD’s but we still got everything wrong. No humans have ever been able to contain a virus. It looks like China haven’t given up yet. Florida & Texas got it right and carried on as normal which didn’t ruin the economy. We should have accepted this pandemic as a bad thing & let it just burn through & burn out.



Seem to have done pretty well against polio and smallpox. OK not so good against MMR triad. Hopefully battle against HPV will reduce the misery and death from cervical and head / neck cancer.

From another post can't recall any of our medical staff here being sacked for not getting vaccination


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## Milzy (16 Nov 2022)

I agree with most you’re saying. I just think governments should be promoting healthy eating & exercise always. Many wouldn’t have died if they weren’t obese. Natural immunity has been brilliant against Covid. May I remind people of my elderly mothering law with a bad heart condition. Her doctor says don’t get vaccinated as the risk on your heart outweighs catching Covid. Although most of us vaccinated still caught it anyway. 
The masks gave her panic attacks so she had an exempt badge. I thought s*€% she’s swanning around supermarkets unmasked & might get very ill or die. Her son kept visiting when really he shouldn’t. We all caught Covid but she never did, & was supposed to be the vulnerable one. Getting vaccinated is one of the biggest regrets of my life. Was only ok’d for emergency use. It hasn’t helped me or anyone else apart from tax payers money going to big pharma. 
When the cold snap hits and the elderly can’t afford to heat their homes, their arteries/blood vessels will close up tighter, then they’re prone to heart attacks. Many will die but that will be more deadly than Covid. All blamed on a proxy war while energy companies make record breaking profits.


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## Milzy (16 Nov 2022)

midlife said:


> Seem to have done pretty well against polio and smallpox. OK not so good against MMR triad. Hopefully battle against HPV will reduce the misery and death from cervical and head / neck cancer.
> 
> From another post can't recall any of our medical staff here being sacked for not getting vaccination



Most sacked were in North America. I think some nurses retrained in other fields never to go back into medicine. My wifes matron said you don’t have to have jabs if you don’t want. We don’t care but she’s already had two by then.


----------



## Alex321 (16 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> What about all the businesses that have gone under & all the depression plus suicides caused by draconian lock down rules? Politicians are now admitting they got it all wrong. A lot of those broke their own rules. Why were many of the worlds medical staff sacked for not taking the vaccine when they had already gone through the worst parts of the pandemic? Follow the science, the thing is science is always evolving. The whole thing was one massive shift of wealth from the poor to the rich. We have all been had in exactly the same way BrExit had just over half of the voters. Nobody wants to admit it.



Nobody "admits" it because virtually none of that is true in any significant way./

As is the norm with anything y9ou post about the pandemic.


----------



## Milzy (16 Nov 2022)

Alex321 said:


> Nobody "admits" it because virtually none of that is true in any significant way./
> 
> As is the norm with anything y9ou post about the pandemic.



Millions believe what I’ve stated. As time goes on more people will wake up to the fact. 
Let’s say we had some mutating version which was as deadly as the first wave breaking out tomorrow. There’s no way they’d do lock downs again. We never really stopped the spread, slowed it down a little yeah but a cost just not worth it.
You also condone people not seeing their dying loved ones & missing funerals as well then. You’re just another Matt Hancock.


----------



## tom73 (16 Nov 2022)

midlife said:


> Seem to have done pretty well against polio and smallpox. OK not so good against MMR triad. Hopefully battle against HPV will reduce the misery and death from cervical and head / neck cancer.
> 
> From another post can't recall any of our medical staff here being sacked for not getting vaccination



MMR all down to one class A crack pot, HPV looks to be a real success story no wonder they extended it.
We’ve not gone too bad on HIV either going from died of to living with well into old age is now common place.


----------



## FishFright (16 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Millions believe what I’ve stated. As time goes on more people will wake up to the fact.
> Let’s say we had some mutating version which was as deadly as the first wave breaking out tomorrow. There’s no way they’d do lock downs again. We never really stopped the spread, slowed it down a little yeah but a cost just not worth it.
> You also condone people not seeing their dying loved ones & missing funerals as well then. You’re just another Matt Hancock.



When you dig a hole so deep that you can't see daylight then all you can hope is if you keep digging you'll finally find you were wrong all along.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (16 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Millions believe what I’ve stated



Millions believe the moon landings were faked. 

What's your point?


----------



## classic33 (16 Nov 2022)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Millions believe the moon landings were faked.
> 
> What's your point?


Stanley Kubrick didn't have any part to play in them!!


----------



## Ajax Bay (17 Nov 2022)

The @Moderators were kind enough to transfer these COVID-19 threads (there's a 'how are you doing one' too) from oldNACA to 'health'. There's plenty of value in these which doesn't need to be controversial: it would a shame to lose it.
Now back to A level choices, General Studies and the style of twentieth century school RE education.


----------



## mjr (17 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> vaccinated is one of the biggest regrets of my life. Was only ok’d for emergency use. It hasn’t helped me or anyone else apart from tax payers money going to big pharma.


The above is false and misinformation. All the vaccines used in the UK during 2020-21 eventually got non-emergency approval (I've not checked later ones) and there was a significant beneficial effect.


----------



## Alex321 (17 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Millions believe what I’ve stated.



Millions believe the earth is flat.

And that the twin towers was staged by the US.

And that the moon landings never happened.



Milzy said:


> As time goes on more people will wake up to the fact.
> Let’s say we had some mutating version which was as deadly as the first wave breaking out tomorrow. There’s no way they’d do lock downs again.


It is almost certain they would, but probably quicker and more effectively.




Milzy said:


> We never really stopped the spread, slowed it down a little yeah but a cost just not worth it.



It was never expected to do more than slow it down.

If we hadn't, the cost would have been far higher, with the NHS (and other health services around the world) being totally overwhelmed so deaths would have way higher dierctly and indirectly, and many more catching it before the vaccines became available.



Milzy said:


> You also condone people not seeing their dying loved ones & missing funerals as well then. You’re just another Matt Hancock.



Thank you for letting us know (yet again) that you have absolutely no understanding of the matter, while throwing around pointless insults.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (17 Nov 2022)

mjr said:


> The above is false and misinformation. All the vaccines used in the UK during 2020-21 eventually got non-emergency approval (I've not checked later ones) and there was a significant beneficial effect.



"Conditional approval" is the technical term, not emergency approval.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-...orisation/conditional-marketing-authorisation

It is routine for new medicines in an area of significant unmet need to be approved in such a way - there seem to be 44 currently from this list.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/docume...l-products-under-additional-monitoring_en.pdf


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## classic33 (17 Nov 2022)

Given that the disease, in humans, is only three years old, the responses to it have been both knee jerk and thought out. 

Maybe in ten years time we'll look back and wonder what the fuss was all about, or we'll say we did well to avoid it being worse. Only time will tell, let's wait and see.

I still see people who say that the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001 was a manufactured outbreak. It changed many things, some still in place today.


----------



## ianbarton (17 Nov 2022)

classic33 said:


> Given that the disease, in humans, is only three years old, the responses to it have been both knee jerk and thought out.
> 
> Maybe in ten years time we'll look back and wonder what the fuss was all about, or we'll say we did well to avoid it being worse. Only time will tell, let's wait and see.
> 
> I still see people who say that the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001 was a manufactured outbreak. It changed many things, some still in place today.



Speaking as a farmer the 2001 foot and mouth outbreak was mismanaged entirely at the start. Neither of the two most significant lessons from the 1966 outbreak was implemented. If there is an outbreak stop all movement of stock immediately. Kill all infected animals and bury them on site, or close to the area where the outbreak happened.

We have two burial sites here on the farm from the 1956 and 1966 outbreaks.


----------



## tom73 (17 Nov 2022)

classic33 said:


> Given that the disease, in humans, is only three years old, the responses to it have been both knee jerk and thought out.
> 
> Maybe in ten years time we'll look back and wonder what the fuss was all about, or we'll say we did well to avoid it being worse. Only time will tell, let's wait and see.
> 
> I still see people who say that the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001 was a manufactured outbreak. It changed many things, some still in place today.



One thing we can say for sure is pandemics are increasing and another will come sooner then they once did.


----------



## tom73 (17 Nov 2022)

ianbarton said:


> Speaking as a farmer the 2001 foot and mouth outbreak was mismanaged entirely at the start. Neither of the two most significant lessons from the 1966 outbreak was implemented. If there is an outbreak stop all movement of stock immediately. Kill all infected animals and bury them on site, or close to the area where the outbreak happened.
> 
> We have two burial sites here on the farm from the 1956 and 1966 outbreaks.



We never seam to learn from any outbreak both human or animal. Planning and inquiries findings never get implemented until it’s too late.


----------



## Ming the Merciless (17 Nov 2022)

There’s something fishy about Matt Haddock


----------



## Slick (17 Nov 2022)

ianbarton said:


> Speaking as a farmer the 2001 foot and mouth outbreak was mismanaged entirely at the start. Neither of the two most significant lessons from the 1966 outbreak was implemented. If there is an outbreak stop all movement of stock immediately. Kill all infected animals and bury them on site, or close to the area where the outbreak happened.
> 
> We have two burial sites here on the farm from the 1956 and 1966 outbreaks.



What a horrible time that must have been.


----------



## winjim (17 Nov 2022)

tom73 said:


> One thing we can say for sure is pandemics are increasing and another will come sooner then they once did.



This was true three years ago. Don't let anyone use as an excuse something which was inevitable.


----------



## tom73 (17 Nov 2022)

winjim said:


> This was true three years ago. Don't let anyone use as an excuse something which was inevitable.



I’m not the fact that it was number 1 and still is on the national risk register. Yet they still did nothing to be ready for it. Just shows what a total scandal the whole thing was/is.


----------



## Rusty Nails (17 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Country after country has official records showing no child died as a consequence of the *alleged* virus.



So are you saying there was never a Covid virus?

Please point me to the *Official* UK records that show no child in the UK died as a consequence of Covid. (And I mean official figures, not figures published by some unofficial source).

Your last sentence is so ludicrous as to be laughable if it was not so dangerous. Who are these people who may genuinely wish to harm children, and to what end? We need to know.


----------



## SpokeyDokey (17 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Sadly the governments and elite of our world will always profit from chaos & bad things.
> The World Council for Health is very concerned about the continuing pressure to get covid19 “vaccines” into the arms of our innocent children.
> I wholeheartedly agree.
> There was NEVER the slightest justification for injecting children (or indeed anyone, but children are the most stark example, along with pregnant women), even if you persist in believing the lying government & media.
> ...



What a very strange last para' - beyond belief that anyone could think that let alone post it.

Edit - I see my comment has been pretty much covered by @Rusty Nails - happy that I am not the only one thinking said quoted comments are stark raving mad.


----------



## lazybloke (17 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> <SNIP>
> No, there are other reasons why the perpetrators what those needles in the arms of children. They may genuinely wish to harm them & they’ll succeed unless you defend them.


Took my daugther for her covid booster earlier today. That's how I defend her; she's vulnerable to illnesses so gets a number of jabs each year.


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## fossyant (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy, do you have same opinion about tetanus, reubella, and other vax. I hope you've has tetanus, especially if you do gardening or fall off bikes regular, especially MTB's.


----------



## tom73 (18 Nov 2022)

Children have died of covid or compilations from it. The youngest in the Uk was around 6 mouths old. If I remember rightly. Other placers in the world began vaccinating children earlier than us and quicker along the along age groups. So plenty of data shows the risk of the vaccine is low. If anything we went way too slow and failed to get information out in the right way. JCVI was for too long advised by a known crack pot.

Risk of not having vaccinations in children is way over shadowed by the risk of not having one. Do we really want to be in place that has children dying of preventable illness ?Or being affected for life by one.


----------



## roubaixtuesday (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Sadly the governments and elite of our world will always profit from chaos & bad things.
> The World Council for Health is very concerned about the continuing pressure to get covid19 “vaccines” into the arms of our innocent children.
> I wholeheartedly agree.
> There was NEVER the slightest justification for injecting children (or indeed anyone, but children are the most stark example, along with pregnant women), even if you persist in believing the lying government & media.
> ...



Pregnant women and their babies are at particular risk from covid. 

_The data from these studies shows that during the Delta COVID-19 wave (16 May 2021 to 31 October 2021):_


_1436 pregnant women were admitted to hospital with symptomatic COVID-19, of whom 230 (16%) were admitted to intensive care._
_17 (1%) pregnant and postnatal women died from COVID-19 (5.4 per 100,000 live births). In comparison, 10 women died during the Alpha period (3.2 per 100,000 live births) and 7 women died during the pre-Alpha 'wild-type' period (1.4 per 100,000 live births)._
_Four babies admitted to neonatal units died from COVID-19 (1.3 per 100,000 live births)._
_COVID-19 infection resulted in worse pregnancy outcomes. Of the hospitalised women, 19% had a preterm birth, 2% had a pregnancy loss, and 2% gave birth to a stillborn baby._
_Almost all (96%) of the pregnant women admitted to hospital were unvaccinated. Of those admitted to intensive care, 98% were unvaccinated_.
https://www.npeu.ox.ac.uk/news/2194-pregnant-women-now-a-priority-group-for-covid-19-vaccination

Spreading the despicable lies you do here puts women and their babies directly in harms way. Shame on you. Take a long hard look at yourself.

The rest of your post is false too, of course.


----------



## PK99 (18 Nov 2022)

SpokeyDokey said:


> What a very strange last para' - beyond belief that anyone could think that let alone post it.
> 
> Edit - I see my comment has been pretty much covered by @Rusty Nails - happy that I am not the only one thinking said quoted comments are stark raving mad.



Me too!


----------



## roubaixtuesday (18 Nov 2022)

tom73 said:


> Children have died of covid or compilations from it.



https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/tran...thsinukforchildrenfromages0to19sincemarch2020







[Edit, as helpfully pointed out by @Alex321 downthread, whilst accurate at the time, these figures are out of date, the actual numbers being higher https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/page-1350#post-6855682 ]


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## vickster (18 Nov 2022)

Rusty Nails said:


> So are you saying there was never a Covid virus?
> 
> Please point me to the *Official* UK records that show no child in the UK died as a consequence of Covid. (And I mean official figures, not figures published by some unofficial source).
> 
> Your last sentence is so ludicrous as to be laughable if it was not so dangerous. Who are these people who may genuinely wish to harm children, and to what end? We need to know.



Looking at their website, the crackpots who set up The World Council for Health last year!!!


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## Alex321 (18 Nov 2022)

roubaixtuesday said:


> https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/tran...thsinukforchildrenfromages0to19sincemarch2020
> 
> View attachment 668343



And those numbers only go up to May 2021. They are a fair bit higher if you include data from the rest of 2021 and 2022 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
Sheet 5 gives deaths involving COVID19 by age group and week for the whole of 2021 and 2022 up to 4th November.

I would guess a lot of the reason for that is children going back to school, so transmission increasing drastically, while younger children weren't being vaccinated.


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## Milzy (18 Nov 2022)

roubaixtuesday said:


> Pregnant women and their babies are at particular risk from covid.
> 
> _The data from these studies shows that during the Delta COVID-19 wave (16 May 2021 to 31 October 2021):_
> 
> ...



You’re a talking complete tosh. Since my jabs I’ve had an irregular heart beat and there’s evidence of vaccine injuries all over the world. The main stream media won’t cover this but all the truth will come out in the end & the younger generation are waking up to everything.


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## PK99 (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> You’re a talking complete tosh. Since my jabs I’ve had an irregular heart beat and there’s evidence of vaccine injuries all over the world. The main stream media won’t cover this but all the truth will come out in the end & the younger generation are waking up to everything.



There are risks associated with any and every medical intervention. If you think that the risks of covid vaccine are greater than the risks of covid.... IMHO you are crazy.


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## Alex321 (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> You’re a talking complete tosh. Since my jabs I’ve had an irregular heart beat and there’s evidence of vaccine injuries all over the world. The main stream media won’t cover this but all the truth will come out in the end & the younger generation are waking up to everything.



YOU are the one talking complete tosh, as per usual in this thread.

The risks associated with the vaccine are present but minimal. The risks associated with NOT being vaccinated are orders of magnitude higher.

And you know something? EVERY SINGLE time I have seen somebody saying "the mainstream media won't cover this" it has been some crackpot conspiracy theory. Yours is no exception. That statement is generally a pretty good pointer to somebody being deluded.


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## tom73 (18 Nov 2022)

Ok prove evidence of harm on mass that is reported in Peer reviewed and mainstream respected journals. 

Save you the time you won’t find any. 

Take it you reported your complication via the the yellow card process. So it can be correctly investigated and recorded ? 

I very much doubt your heat issue is due to the vaccine. I be more concerned with having it investigated. If it’s that much of an issue.


----------



## Rusty Nails (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> You’re a talking complete tosh. Since my jabs I’ve had an irregular heart beat and there’s evidence of vaccine injuries all over the world. The main stream media won’t cover this but all the truth will come out in the end & the younger generation are waking up to everything.



I believe there is some evidence that, in a very few cases, some people have lost the power of critical reasoning and become delusional after the jab.
Your posts confirm this theory.


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## roubaixtuesday (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> You’re a talking complete tosh. Since my jabs I’ve had an irregular heart beat and there’s evidence of vaccine injuries all over the world. The main stream media won’t cover this but all the truth will come out in the end & the younger generation are waking up to everything.



I provided a link to reputable research.

You are espousing conspiracy theories.

The fact that you're allowed to do so is a great exemplar of the problem with social media: obsessive weirdos, crackpots, conspiracy theorists and the like can amplify nonsense by simply repeating it. If it's left unchallenged, it becomes accepted reality. If it's debunked, the act of debunking it perversely further repeats it. There mere commonplace existence of the nonsense makes it seem normal and become accepted.

You are spreading appalling lies that have already cost the lives of pregnant women and their babies, frightened away from a safe vaccine to suffer the consequences of a fatal virus.

It's absolutely unconscionable and despicable behaviour.


----------



## Milzy (18 Nov 2022)

roubaixtuesday said:


> I provided a link to reputable research.
> 
> You are espousing conspiracy theories.
> 
> ...



When you say it becomes accepted reality you’ve just hit the nail on the head. We’ve had around 100 years of population control telling us how to think. Censorship is more dangerous than anything. You want us to be like North Korea.


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## Alex321 (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> When you say it becomes accepted reality you’ve just hit the nail on the head. We’ve had around 100 years of population control telling us how to think. Censorship is more dangerous than anything. You want us to be like North Korea.



Complete and utter rubbish.


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## vickster (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Since my jabs I’ve had an irregular heart beat



Presumably this has been fully investigated and your cardiologist has reported to the MHRA.

Given your stance, you may not want to take any medication that can treat however in case of side effects which as stated can occur with each and every medicinal product


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## Milzy (18 Nov 2022)

Why are miscarriages up by 500%?


----------



## vickster (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Why are miscarriages up by 500%?



Where? What’s your Source (from peer reviewed validated data only)?


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## classic33 (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Why are miscarriages up by 500%?


Would that be from the same report that says there's a 300% increase in cancer cases?
​


----------



## Alex321 (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Why are miscarriages up by 500%?



They aren't.

Every reputable study shows that miscarriages among vaccinated pregnant women are no higher than normally expected.

Miscarriages among unvaccinated women who caught Covid-19 were rather higher (though still nowhere *near* 500% higher).


----------



## fossyant (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> You’re a talking complete tosh. Since my jabs I’ve had an irregular heart beat and there’s evidence of vaccine injuries all over the world.


There is biger evidence of virus injuries all over the world. Its a percentage thing. the small percentage that have had adverse effects would likely have had issues from the full blown virus. I know quite a few people that have been severly affected by the virus. I've a colleague that's been off work months.

Your irregulat heart beat could have come on through age and other genetic issues. Any 'intervention' has issues. I had a minor surgery 10 years ago, it went wrong, and I'm in constant pain, it's just how it is. It's the same with any activity. Riding a bike, you'll fall off and get injured at some point, chopping carrots, you'll miss and slice your finger one day.

A vaccine works for most people. We aren't all clones, so for some it won't work or cause issues. But then the virus, some it doesn't affect, some die.


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## Milzy (18 Nov 2022)

I retract alleged virus. Poor choice of words.


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## fossyant (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> I retract alleged virus. Poor choice of words.



Very. 

Sat here feeling like shoot with it now. It also, no doubt, contributed to MIL's death as she caught covid about 6-8 weeks before passing. Wasn't covid, but it contributed to further damage to her heart and lungs (which were screwed anyway). She was vaccinatd, and wasn't very poorly, but the additional strain finished her organs off and she developed pneumonia


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## roubaixtuesday (18 Nov 2022)

@Moderators 

Is the intention to allow cyclechat to be used as a platform for conspiracy theorists?


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## FishFright (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Why are miscarriages up by 500%?



They aren't , which of course you know . But scary sounding non secateurs are the stock in trade of those spreading delusional beliefs.


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## Randomnerd (18 Nov 2022)

FishFright said:


> They aren't , which of course you know . But scary sounding non secateurs are the stock in trade of those spreading delusional beliefs.



I'm harvesting this for my "Lovely typos" thread. Should it become monetised I'll send you a fiver. Ta


----------



## Dogtrousers (18 Nov 2022)

Just raving paranoid nonsense. Dangerous in that there may be credulous people who would believe it.


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## Dogtrousers (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> You’re a talking complete tosh. Since my jabs I’ve had ...



Nobody cares what has happened to you, or to any other anecdotally reported individual.


----------



## markemark (18 Nov 2022)

This person has a whole orchestra dancing to their tune (forgive the muddled metaphor!!)

Nobody is going to convince them of anything, they’re too far down the rabbit hole. I’m sure many of you want to counter any false information but each time you do, more nonsense is posted. Nobody will win this so I would suggest just let the nonsense sit there and ignore it. To draw attention will only cause it to multiply which is worse in the long run.

Sometimes it’s best to let people stand on the street corner shouting at the passing cars.


----------



## Milzy (18 Nov 2022)

classic33 said:


> Would that be from the same report that says there's a 300% increase in cancer cases?
> ​





fossyant said:


> Very.
> 
> Sat here feeling like shoot with it now. It also, no doubt, contributed to MIL's death as she caught covid about 6-8 weeks before passing. Wasn't covid, but it contributed to further damage to her heart and lungs (which were screwed anyway). She was vaccinatd, and wasn't very poorly, but the additional strain finished her organs off and she developed pneumonia



I’m sorry to hear this. That’s the thing with my beliefs on covid. No matter how many boosters you may have if you’re vulnerable enough it will still be ultimately destructive. I just think young fit people have had 3 or 4 for nothing. Why are people allowed to believe in different gods but I can’t believe the vaccines didn’t perform as good as they told us. 
😔


----------



## Milzy (18 Nov 2022)

Dogtrousers said:


> Nobody cares what has happened to you, or to any other anecdotally reported individual.


This is very true.


----------



## FishFright (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> I’m sorry to hear this. That’s the thing with my beliefs on covid. No matter how many boosters you may have if you’re vulnerable enough it will still be ultimately destructive. I just think young fit people have had 3 or 4 for nothing. Why are people allowed to believe in different gods but I can’t believe the vaccines didn’t perform as good as they told us.
> 😔



That's the rub, you believe something that's not true and science finds things that are. You'll never beat science with beliefs.


----------



## Milzy (18 Nov 2022)

FishFright said:


> That's the rub, you believe something that's not true and science finds things that are. You'll never beat science with beliefs.



Science at least some parts of it are constantly evolving. There’s evidence of an advanced civilisation which was wiped out by comet fragments. Archeological folks are denying it though. Nobody really knows how they constructed the pyramids with excellent engineering accuracy & how they got to line them all up with other pyramids. 
Regardless it’s been a good debate, with only a few things censored.


----------



## FishFright (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> Science at least some parts of it are constantly evolving.* There’s evidence of an advanced civilisation which was wiped out by comet fragments. *Archeological folks are denying it though. Nobody really knows how they constructed the pyramids with excellent engineering accuracy & how they got to line them all up with other pyramids.
> Regardless it’s been a good debate, with only a few things censored.



Now I really know you're just trolling for kicks .

BTW We've known for decades how all the pyramids around the world were built because its the simplest stable structure . There was no magic or ufo's or anything like that .


----------



## Alex321 (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> I’m sorry to hear this. That’s the thing with my beliefs on covid. No matter how many boosters you may have if you’re vulnerable enough it will still be ultimately destructive. I just think young fit people have had 3 or 4 for nothing. Why are people allowed to believe in different gods but I can’t believe the vaccines didn’t perform as good as they told us.
> 😔



Because there is no scientific evidence for any god, while there is PLENTY of scientific evidence showing the effectiveness of the vaccines.


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## Milzy (18 Nov 2022)

FishFright said:


> Now I really know you're just trolling for kicks .
> 
> BTW We've known for decades how all the pyramids around the world were built because its the simplest stable structure . There was no magic or ufo's or anything like that .


The stone was quarried many miles away. How did they get those huge blocks so far away and how did they lift them up? We’re living in an age were all these gate keepers will die off & the younger generations will re-write some of our history.


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## FishFright (18 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> The stone was quarried many miles away. How did they get those huge blocks so far away and how did they lift them up? We’re living in an age were all these gate keepers will die off & the younger generations will re-write some of our history.



Earthen ramps, wooden rollers and the farmers during the flood season providing the labour.
It's really that simple.

Do you watch Ancient Aliens and think it's a factual program?


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## a.twiddler (18 Nov 2022)

You mean it's not a documentary?


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## Ajax Bay (18 Nov 2022)

tom73 said:


> Risk of not having vaccinations in children is way over shadowed by the risk of not having one. Do we really want to be in place that has children dying of preventable illness ?


Care to share an authoritative link? How much (least - most estimates of the odds ratio relationship) is that 'over shadowing?


PK99 said:


> There are risks associated with any and every medical intervention. If you think that the risks of covid vaccine are greater than the risks of covid...[then . . .]


The balance of benefit for younger otherwise healthy children is far less clear cut - and the JCVI 'non-urgent offer' reflects this.

"Children aged 5 to 11 years who are not in a COVID-19 clinical risk group are at extremely low risk of developing severe COVID-19 disease.
"over 85% (estimate by end Jan 22) of all children aged 5 to 11 will have had prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (half to Omicron). Natural immunity arising from prior infection will contribute towards protection against future infection and severe disease.
"Vaccination of children aged 5 to 11 who are not in a clinical risk group is anticipated to prevent a small number of hospitalisations and intensive care admissions in this population and would provide short-term protection against non-severe infection (asymptomatic and symptomatic infection that does not require hospital-based care). The extent of these impacts is highly uncertain. They are closely related to future levels of infection in the population . . .
"The potential benefits from vaccination of children aged 5 to 11 who are not in a clinical risk group will apply mainly to a future wave of infection; the more severe a future wave, the greater the likely benefits from vaccination. Conversely, the less severe a future wave, the smaller the likely benefits from vaccination."

Less severe future wave**Number needed to vaccinate to prevent 1 hospitalisation due to acute COVID-1958,000



Alex321 said:


> The risks associated with the vaccine are present but minimal. The risks associated with NOT being vaccinated are orders of magnitude higher.


Absolutely, read across the population as a whole the odds ratio is convincing (we are immensely in debt to the scientists and pharmaceutical companies for discovering, testing and manufacturing at scale the vaccines ), but for young children (U12) not sure they are "an order of magnitude higher" - care to share a quantative authoritative link?


Milzy said:


> No matter how many boosters you may have if you’re vulnerable enough it will still be ultimately destructive. I just think young fit people have had 3 or 4 for nothing. Why are people allowed to believe in different gods but I can’t believe the vaccines didn’t perform as good as they told us.


No, if someone who is 'vulnerable enough' (your phrase) has their boosters, they are far less likely to suffer serious illness (than if they didn't get vaccinated/boosted). But the younger they are, there's an increasingly lower risk of serious illness in the first place.
Very few 'young people' (in UK) have had 4 doses: it's mainly available to over 50s: why? Because they are more likely to suffer serious illness if infected: boosters maintain that %age protection.
You are, of course, allowed to believe what you like about the benefits (or none) of vaccination, but sharing that belief especially in terms which seem at variance with available knowledge is bound to invite others to explain why your belief is ill-founded or confused.


----------



## Alex321 (18 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Absolutely, read across the population as a whole the odds ratio is convincing (we are immensely in debt to the scientists and pharmaceutical companies for discovering, testing and manufacturing at scale the vaccines ), but for young children (U12) not sure they are "an order of magnitude higher" - care to share a quantative authoritative link?


I don't know whether they are. I was talking about the population as a whole there, in response to a post from our resident conspiracy theorist which wasn't about children.


----------



## FishFright (19 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> https://www.dcclothesline.com/2022/...ll-up-300-following-covid-injection-mandates/
> 
> Edit: don’t fly off the handle it looks a bit suspect but that was going around earlier so there you go.



Not a bit suspect, hilariously suspect more like.

Be honest, you picked that for giggles knowing it would get a reaction?


----------



## Ajax Bay (19 Nov 2022)

FishFright said:


> Not a bit suspect, hilariously suspect more like.
> Be honest, you picked that for giggles knowing it would get a reaction?


We (I) have @Milzy to thank for exposure to these facts. I liked this one:
"Australia is also suffering through an excess death apocalypse as fully injected residents are now dropping dead, seemingly without cause. In the year 2022 up through June 30, nearly 100,000 Aussies who fully took all the shots are now fully dead."
Facts:
1) 96% of Australians (O/16) have had at least two doses.
2) 171,469 deaths in 2021, so about 85k in 6 months (in 2021)
3) 93k deaths Jan-Jul 2022 - 17% above historical average. Deaths due to COVID-19 are running at about 1000 a month, vast majority vaccinated (see Fact (1) above). Two key causes for these excess deaths seem to be 'dementia' and diabetes.
4) 96% of these sadly dying (all causes) had "fully [taken] all the shots are now fully dead": about 89k (death rate of U/16 minimal).
4) I shall guess that the author of the 'shock apocalypse assertion' I quoted reckons 89k is "nearly 100,000".


----------



## Milzy (19 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> We (I) have @Milzy to thank for exposure to these facts. I liked this one:
> "Australia is also suffering through an excess death apocalypse as fully injected residents are now dropping dead, seemingly without cause. In the year 2022 up through June 30, nearly 100,000 Aussies who fully took all the shots are now fully dead."
> Facts:
> 1) 96% of Australians (O/16) have had at least two doses.
> ...



There’s another one like this claiming miscarriages now up by 1500%. What’s their narrative? Why are they so hell bent on misinformation. I’m seeing this type of stuff more and more now.


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## FishFright (19 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> There’s another one like this claiming miscarriages now up by 1500%. What’s their narrative? Why are they so hell bent on misinformation. I’m seeing this type of stuff more and more now.



It's total rubbish designed to show you adverts . The bigger the lie the more clicks .


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## oldwheels (19 Nov 2022)

FishFright said:


> Earthen ramps, wooden rollers and the farmers during the flood season providing the labour.
> It's really that simple.
> 
> Do you watch Ancient Aliens and think it's a factual program?



There was a guy some years ago who wrote a series of books "proving" that aliens were involved in the Aztec Empire. He had photographs taken from the air showing probable landing strips in the Amazonian jungle I think. 
He was very persuasive and calm in his writings but I cannot remember his name. Must search a bit further.


----------



## a.twiddler (19 Nov 2022)

Not Eric von Daniken by any chance?


----------



## midlife (19 Nov 2022)

Chariots of the gods I think it was called...


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## Milzy (19 Nov 2022)

midlife said:


> Chariots of the gods I think it was called...



Correct. 
Also Bob Lazar who purports to have examined an alien craft and read US government briefing documents that described alien involvement in human affairs over the past 10,000 years. The guy and his family fully believe what they’re saying. So calm and believable. The documentary on him is mind blowing. They’re saying he’s not credible because he had a brush with the law. They would say that though.


----------



## Slick (19 Nov 2022)

I always remember a trip to Mexico, back in the day when you could still climb the Myan pyramids. I was really impressed by the knowledge of the tour guide, and his ability to switch between 7 or so different languages when answering questions. He explained about how the sun would line up once a year to create the body of a snake coming from a stone lions head. I asked him, what he believed had made this possible all those years ago, and he calmly told me he fully believed aliens came to earth to help them build these structures. I was taken aback by such a clever guy, with so much knowledge of the subject, happily discussing wee nen from space. I still wasn't arguing with him though.


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## oldwheels (19 Nov 2022)

a.twiddler said:


> Not Eric von Daniken by any chance?



That sounds familiar right enough. Entertaining in a strange way.


----------



## vickster (19 Nov 2022)

Milzy said:


> There’s another one like this claiming miscarriages now up by 1500%. What’s their narrative? Why are they so hell bent on misinformation. I’m seeing this type of stuff more and more now.



You’re the only one posting this crap? Bored? Trolling for a reaction? Both?


----------



## pawl (19 Nov 2022)

midlife said:


> Chariots of the gods I think it was called...



Wasn’t there one called was Jesus a space man Not sure if that was exactly the title-


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## mjr (19 Nov 2022)

Why has gullibility increased 9734% since Musk bought Twitter?


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## Ming the Merciless (20 Nov 2022)

Interesting research on exercise capacity in long Covid sufferers. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8354807/


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## newts (20 Nov 2022)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Interesting research on exercise capacity in long Covid sufferers.
> 
> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8354807/



As a long covid sufferer, I would agree that that peak exercise aerobic capacity is very much reduced.


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## jowwy (20 Nov 2022)

vickster said:


> You’re the only one posting this crap? Bored? Trolling for a reaction? Both?



Just because people post things we, you, others may not like….it doesnt make them a troll


----------



## FishFright (20 Nov 2022)

jowwy said:


> Just because people post things we, you, others may not like….it doesnt make them a troll



It's not that people don't like it , it's because it's complete nonsense and obviously nonsense at that .

I hope you are trolling for a lark because the alternative is just too funny.


----------



## jowwy (20 Nov 2022)

FishFright said:


> It's not that people don't like it , it's because it's complete nonsense and obviously nonsense at that .
> 
> I hope you are trolling for a lark because the alternative is just too funny.



Im not trolling or posting about the virus, just a comment about the poster……..and yes he/she is posting complete nonsense from many peoples point of view, but it doesnt make them a troll


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## vickster (20 Nov 2022)

To me, what he has been doing is the very definition of trolling…namely posting what he knows is utter nonsense to get a reaction
As defined in this context
Trolling is when someone posts or comments online to 'bait' people, which means deliberately provoking an argument or emotional reaction. In some cases they say things they don't even believe, just to cause drama.

And from the Forum rules

*Trolling.* Do not post in order to anger other members or intentionally cause negative reactions. For a given post, this can be a subjective call, but a pattern of such posting or an especially egregious case will get you temporarily excluded and/or banned.

Ymmv although not sure how else trolling in the context of an online forum is defined, enlighten us?


----------



## Pat "5mph" (20 Nov 2022)

Mod Note:
Some OT posts have been deleted.
Would be good if the thread goes back on topic, cheers!


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## jowwy (20 Nov 2022)

vickster said:


> To me, what he has been doing is the very definition of trolling…namely posting what he knows is utter nonsense to get a reaction
> As defined in this context
> Trolling is when someone posts or comments online to 'bait' people, which means deliberately provoking an argument or emotional reaction. In some cases they say things they don't even believe, just to cause drama.
> 
> ...



So someone giving an opinion that others dont like is trolling…..best shut the forum down then if thats the case.

and how do you know he/she doesnt believe in what they are posting ??? Did they say they didnt believe it??? Or are you just making assumptions???

you should also be aware that calling someone a troll is against the rules of the forum, its called a personal attack and personal attacks are not allowed.


----------



## Mo1959 (20 Nov 2022)

jowwy said:


> So someone giving an opinion that others dont like is trolling…..best shut the forum down then if thats the case.



From the very outset of this thread anyone that dares speak against the vaccine is automatically branded as a conspiracy theorist or a troll. Quite amusing really.


----------



## alicat (20 Nov 2022)

jowwy said:


> and how do you know he/she doesnt believe in what they are posting ??? Did they say they didnt believe it??? Or are you just making assumptions???


The virus equivalent of 'the earth is flat' is quite a good indicator.


----------



## jowwy (20 Nov 2022)

Mo1959 said:


> From the very outset of this thread anyone that dares speak against the vaccine is automatically branded as a conspiracy theorist or a troll. Quite amusing really.



Which is against the rules and they should be treated accordingly


----------



## jowwy (20 Nov 2022)

alicat said:


> The virus equivalent of 'the earth is flat' is quite a good indicator.



He/she is speaking about the vaccine not the virus, he/she has already apologised for using the wrong words about the virus itself.


----------



## alicat (20 Nov 2022)

Mo1959 said:


> From the very outset of this thread anyone that dares speak against the vaccine is automatically branded as a conspiracy theorist or a troll. Quite amusing really.



Errh, which vaccine are we talking about - I'm aware of Phizer, AZ, Moderna and Wikipedia says there are 37 others authorised somewhere in the world?


----------



## jowwy (20 Nov 2022)

alicat said:


> Errh, which vaccine are we talking about - I'm aware of Phizer, AZ, Moderna and Wikipedia says there are 37 others authorised somewhere in the world?



Does it matter to which vaccine they talk of??? They are still be attacked, no matter which vaccine they discuss


----------



## classic33 (20 Nov 2022)

jowwy said:


> Which is against the rules and they should be treated accordingly


As is posting false information.

The problem being that there are that many people, in positions of authority, that have used their position to add weight to their arguments/case. And anyone who doesn't agree with them is wrong. The thing works both ways.

And, if you check, the report mentioned earlier, resulted in medical personal being struck off, or restricted in what they can do.


----------



## jowwy (20 Nov 2022)

classic33 said:


> As is posting false information.
> 
> The problem being that there are that many people, in positions of authority, that have used their position to add weight to their arguments/case. And anyone who doesn't agree with them is wrong. The thing works both ways.
> 
> And, if you check, the report mentioned earlier resulted in medical personal being struck off, or restricted in what they can do.



Yes it does work both ways…… but the personal attacks are only coming from one side of the argument.


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## classic33 (20 Nov 2022)

jowwy said:


> Yes it does work both ways…… but the personal attacks are only coming from one side of the argument.


Defend the case then.

It's been through a US court martial and court cases, which proved it false. Prove it true and you may have a case.


----------



## jowwy (20 Nov 2022)

classic33 said:


> Defend the case then.
> 
> It's been through a US court martial and court cases, which proved it false. Prove it true and you may have a case.



Im not her to prove or disprove anything……..im here defending the personal attacks on members. I havent made any post about the vaccine or posted any incorrect information. Yet again, your making a post about me based on your fellings towards me, rather than what i have posted.

Have a nice day.


----------



## alicat (20 Nov 2022)

jowwy said:


> im here defending the personal attacks on members.


Oh I thought that was the mods' job. Have you been promoted?


----------



## classic33 (20 Nov 2022)

jowwy said:


> Im not her to prove or disprove anything……..im here defending the personal attacks on members. I havent made any post about the vaccine or posted any incorrect information. Yet again, your making a post about me based on your fellings towards me, rather than what i have posted.
> 
> Have a nice day.


I went on what you posted. And you're reading other posts and getting confused over who said what.

You can prove that the court martial and court cases reached the wrong verdicts?

If not, better stop referencing them as being correct. Which is what you are doing.


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## jowwy (20 Nov 2022)

classic33 said:


> I went on what you posted. And you're reading other posts and getting confused over who said what.
> 
> You can prove that the court martial and court cases reached the wrong verdicts?
> 
> If not, better stop referencing them as being correct. Which is what you are doing.



Were did i say they were correct??? And were did i state the reached verdicts were wrong???

agian your making the posts personally about me and i have stated neither………


----------



## jowwy (20 Nov 2022)

alicat said:


> Oh I thought that was the mods' job. Have you been promoted?



Anybody can defend a member, dont have to be a moderator to do that.


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## Dogtrousers (21 Nov 2022)

jowwy said:


> I havent made any post about the vaccine or posted any incorrect information.



It would be cool if you could stick to the topic of thread. Or have you just come to derail it?


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## jowwy (21 Nov 2022)

Dogtrousers said:


> It would be cool if you could stick to the topic of thread. Or have you just come to derail it?



defending some one is not derailing the thread....the people making personal attacks are the ones doing that.


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## Ajax Bay (21 Nov 2022)

jowwy said:


> defending some one is not derailing the thread....the people making personal attacks are the ones doing that.


@jowwy I agree: all these randoms from @Milzy are irritating but they're more 'on topic' than RE experiences and other diversions.
I guess it's a judgement call whether to try to help @Milzy with some facts or to just leave his short posts out there to wither.
From OHID (at this time of year 2015-2019 =circa 10k per week; currently about 11.7kpw and excess %age across all ages):


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## Ming the Merciless (21 Nov 2022)

Who statement on hybrid immunity, vaccine induced, infection induced.

https://www.who.int/news/item/01-06...nd-increasing-population-seroprevalence-rates


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## KnittyNorah (21 Nov 2022)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Who statement on hybrid immunity, vaccine induced, infection induced.
> 
> https://www.who.int/news/item/01-06...nd-increasing-population-seroprevalence-rates



Of particular note in the Conclusion is the following: (my bolding)



> Vaccination against COVID-19 reduces the risk of severe morbidity, and curtails the burden on health systems by protecting against hospitalization and death. *Moreover, hybrid immunity confers improved protection compared to infection-induced immunity alone.*


----------



## PK99 (21 Nov 2022)

KnittyNorah said:


> Of particular note in the Conclusion is the following: (my bolding)



Infection then 6 jabs means I should be OK....


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## Ajax Bay (21 Nov 2022)

Ming the Merciless said:


> Who statement on hybrid immunity, vaccine induced, infection induced.
> 
> https://www.who.int/news/item/01-06...nd-increasing-population-seroprevalence-rates


Thank you: I've precised their conclusion:
*Conclusion *COVID-19 remains a severe threat . . .

Variant emergence > formidable challenges: immune evasion, increased transmissibility, or enhanced severity.
Evolution remains unpredictable.
Vaccination reduces the risk of severe illness and the burden on [NHS].
Hybrid (vax + infection) immunity is better than just infection-induced or vax-induced immunity alone.
Prioritize vax of individuals in the highest and high-risk groups, irrespective of their infection history: all healthcare [and social care] workers, immuno-compromised individuals, and older people.
Booster doses offer enhanced protection against Omicron.
@PK99 "Infection then 6 jabs means I should be OK...."
You need to get the Omicron infection special top-up, as infection with native, Alpha or Delta contributes less to the 'flat bar and city tyres' effect (and has waned anyways).


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## Ajax Bay (22 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> We (I) have @Milzy to thank for exposure to these facts. I liked this one:
> "Australia is also suffering through an excess death apocalypse as fully injected residents are now dropping dead, seemingly without cause. In the year 2022 up through June 30, nearly 100,000 Aussies who fully took all the shots are now fully dead."
> Facts:
> 1) 96% of Australians (O/16) have had at least two doses.
> ...


John Campbell has just put out a video on this. Self pat on back for getting there 3 days before him (thanks to @Milzy 's poke)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqKZlDsesL4


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## classic33 (22 Nov 2022)

Would this be the answer?
https://fullfact.org/health/john-campbell-youtube-singapore-children/


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## roubaixtuesday (22 Nov 2022)

classic33 said:


> Would this be the answer?
> https://fullfact.org/health/john-campbell-youtube-singapore-children/



Yup. Campbell not a reliable source. Ignore.


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## Ajax Bay (22 Nov 2022)

classic33 said:


> Would this be the answer?
> https://fullfact.org/health/john-campbell-youtube-singapore-children/


The answer to what? A bloke puts out 700+ videos (daily) and a very few get fact checked. Your link is from 3 months ago. I think for @roubaixtuesday to just tar him as 'unreliable' is harsh. Keep taking the Vitamin (not a vitamin) D.
Though he does seem to have got a bit more random of late (eg the one giving air time to the edge of spectrum MP). I occasionally listen to one, with a critical eye/ear.

The issue of excess deaths in many countries round the world is just that: an issue. The point Campbell sought to make is that excess death rates running at 15+% should be getting more media coverage and political attention.
In very rough figures (England) Apr-Oct the 2015-19 average weekly death rate is about 10kpw. In that 30 weeks there's been about 45k excess deaths of which about 15k have COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate as either the primary or a secondary cause. So what about that other 30k? I guess you could say that that's not 'Coronavirus' and therefore off topic.

Conventional wisdom (which I believe though willing to listen to other views) is that it's a result of a combination of people not wanting to come forward till they thought hospitals and other NHS sites were 'safe' (Mar 2022-Feb 2022), or because they did not want to bother their doctor because other sicker people needed help more. And that has resulted in illnesses that in pre-pandemic times would have been diagnosed earlier and treated, have worsened with tragic, fatal effect.


----------



## classic33 (22 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> The answer to what? A bloke puts out 700+ videos (daily) and a very few get fact checked. Your link is from 3 months ago. I think for @roubaixtuesday to just tar him as 'unreliable' is harsh. Keep taking the Vitamin (not a vitamin) D.
> Though he does seem to have got a bit more random of late (eg the one giving air time to the edge of spectrum MP). I occasionally listen to one, with a critical eye/ear.
> 
> The issue of excess deaths in many countries round the world is just that: an issue. The point Campbell sought to make is that excess death rates running at 15+% should be getting more media coverage and political attention.
> ...


After the YouTube videos, most of the results for that doctor were none to favourable.

I walked away out of the local A&E early last week, under my own steam, again one of the lucky ones. Others may not have been as lucky. Staff were dealing with worse than me. It's a view I've had for years, I'm one of the lucky ones when I get to leave under my own steam, within 24 hours of going in. A&E waiting times can be lengthy. Me, I'm waiting on the routine appointments starting up, and catching up with me.

If the keep taking the vitamin D was aimed at me, its in poor taste as far as I'm concerned.


----------



## mjr (22 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Conventional wisdom (which I believe though willing to listen to other views) is that it's a result of a combination of people not wanting to come forward till they thought hospitals and other NHS sites were 'safe' (Mar 2022-Feb 2022), or because they did not want to bother their doctor because other sicker people needed help more. And that has resulted in illnesses that in pre-pandemic times would have been diagnosed earlier and treated, have worsened with tragic, fatal effect.


So, it's either the patients or the patients to blame, you think? No-one is dying due to the ambulance queues outside hospitals? Nothing to do with the starved-to-the-bone NHS suspending clinics for chronic illnesses and engaging in various tricks to reduce the numbers missing waiting time targets? The life-expired buildings with roofs held up pit props has no drawbacks for care? Much was postponed during covid and the rebuilding of buildings and workforce still hasn't started.


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> I think for @roubaixtuesday to just tar him as 'unreliable' is harsh.



He was pushing ivermectin.

He absolutely is unreliable, indeed that's about the mildest word I'd use.

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/03/s...support-ivermectin-as-treatment-for-covid-19/


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## PK99 (23 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> The answer to what? A bloke puts out 700+ videos (daily) and a very few get fact checked. Your link is from 3 months ago. I think for @roubaixtuesday to just tar him as 'unreliable' is harsh. Keep taking the Vitamin (not a vitamin) D.
> Though he does seem to have got a bit more random of late (eg the one giving air time to the edge of spectrum MP). I occasionally listen to one, with a critical eye/ear.
> 
> The issue of excess deaths in many countries round the world is just that: an issue. The point Campbell sought to make is that excess death rates running at 15+% should be getting more media coverage and political attention.
> ...



And.... my experience is that for maybe 15 years I have been prone to chest infections (4/5 a year needing heavy-duty antibiotics), combined with other conditions these can be potentially life-threatening if they do not respond to my rescue pack of antibiotics.

From late 2019 to October this year I had ZERO chest infections. In October I had a nasty one that took a month and 14 days of Moxifloxacin to clear.
ie Covid Isolation protected me from infection risk, as soon as I started mixing normally , in particular taking a short haul cattle class flight, the normal exposure/infection pattern resumed.

There must (?) be some element of that in the current pattern. ie not directly covid related, but lockdown/isolation provided temporary protection from things other than covid.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Nov 2022)

The vitamin D leitmotif was not aimed at you @classic33 , but still think it's a good idea, when the sun doesn't shine and for those who don't get out, and if not contraindicated (very rare). Still not sure what the question is to which a fact check link from August is "the answer" - see your comment.
The whole ivermectin thing was, again, long ago and his point is/was: no proper trials (RCT) were being done on it, despite suggestions that the safe, widely available and cheap drug may have benefit (like viagra for example). The primary thrust was: there should be a proper study/trial - steel yourself and read this biznews article (which is NOT saying that ivermectin has any beneficial effect). There is an Oxford Uni study (PRINCIPLE) which added ivermectin (the seventh drug) into its trial in mid 2021 (results still awaited for ivermectin: most trialled drugs shown not effective, one (budesonide) has merit).
I'll be guessing you have watched very few of these videos, @roubaixtuesday and are going on secondary material. Head over to the helmet thread for more on stuff people do for unproven benefit.
Of the excess deaths (15+%) only a third of those have a primary or secondary cause of COVID-19. When you have additional deaths twice as many as from/partly from COVID-19, they need demonstrable and public scrutiny (and 'no' I don't have any more suggestions).
For @mjr this is not a blame game: the excess deaths are persisting. I suggested possible reasons and you've contributed another (the ambulance > A&E > admission > care non-availability logjam, NB sustained increase in funding of the NHS above inflation for years). @PK99 has suggested another.


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> The whole ivermectin thing was, again, long ago



No. Earlier this year.


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## Ajax Bay (23 Nov 2022)

roubaixtuesday said:


> No. Earlier this year.


I didn't realise he'd been back on that horse in March this year. The RCT is being done: let's see what the results of the PRINCIPLE work conclude.


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## roubaixtuesday (23 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> I didn't realise he'd been back on that horse in March this year. The RCT is being done: let's see what the results of the PRINCIPLE work conclude.



Agree re trials.

Campbell is not a reliable source.


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## mjr (23 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> For @mjr this is not a blame game: the excess deaths are persisting. I suggested possible reasons and you've contributed another (the ambulance > A&E > admission > care non-availability logjam, NB sustained increase in funding of the NHS above inflation for years). @PK99 has suggested another.


It was very jarring that you only mentioned patient errors, though.

Also, "sustained increase in funding of the NHS above inflation for years" depends how you count it (there were a couple of slightly-below-inflation increases — aka slight real-terms falls — per-capita in the 2010s according to the Nuffield Trust). It also ignores the bigger problem that healthcare need doesn't depend that much on inflation, although the current high-inflation period and its consequences for heating, eating and medication buying choices seem likely to cause more need in the medium term. Healthcare need depends more on things like policy decisions that help or harm public health, where governments of all colours for at least 25 years have pretty much failed to deliver their well-meaning policies through things like transport (cycling!) and development planning.

How much funding is needed probably also depends whether the NHS is playing "catch up" after coping with a pandemic. I wasn't confident that the 2.5% real-terms increase announced before the recent government crisis was going to be enough to catch up and I don't think last week's announcement increased it enough. The NHS Confederation implies that the NHS is getting just £3.3bn more which won't fill a £6bn funding gap... and I think that's just to keep pace, including the slow elective recovery plan. Is there an estimate of how much recovering the NHS to a pre-covid position would cost?


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## mjr (23 Nov 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> I didn't realise he'd been back on that horse in March this year. The RCT is being done: let's see what the results of the PRINCIPLE work conclude.


I'll be guessing you have watched very few of these videos and are going on secondary material. 😜


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## mjr (23 Nov 2022)

This might have something to do with the extra excess deaths, but more to do with why this winter colds season seemed to start early and hard : https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03666-9


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## Ajax Bay (23 Nov 2022)

Here's where England is with RSV this autumn (data from Week 45 of 52), compared with previous years (NB 18-19 was worst and significant spike in deaths from/with flu occuring either side of New Year (assume flu caught in December). (OHID)





"Influenza positivity remained stable at 6.9% in week 45; SARS-CoV-2 positivity decreased to 4.2%. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) positivity increased to 9.2% in week 45. Adenovirus positivity increased to 3.3%. Rhinovirus positivity decreased to 14.0%. Parainfluenza positivity remained low at 1.8%, while human metapneumovirus (hMPV) positivity remained low at 1.7% in week 45." (edited from UKHSA)


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## gavgav (24 Nov 2022)

Mo1959 said:


> From the very outset of this thread anyone that dares speak against the vaccine is automatically branded as a conspiracy theorist or a troll. Quite amusing really.



People are perfectly entitled to be against a vaccine, that’s their choice, what they’re not entitled to do is pedal complete lies and fabrications to try and justify it


----------



## markemark (24 Nov 2022)

gavgav said:


> People are perfectly entitled to be against a vaccine, that’s their choice, what they’re not entitled to do is pedal complete lies and fabrications to try and justify it



And they fact that the whole situation is labelled as ‘amusing’ says quite a bit.


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## roubaixtuesday (25 Nov 2022)

gavgav said:


> People are perfectly entitled to be against a vaccine, that’s their choice, what they’re not entitled to do is pedal complete lies and fabrications to try and justify it



Am disappointed the site allows itself to be used for the dissemination of such.


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## Ming the Merciless (29 Nov 2022)

Immensa lab errors may have led to 23 Covid-19 deaths 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-63795285


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## Ajax Bay (2 Dec 2022)

IndieSAGE (2 Dec)
1) ONS survey out yesterday suggest COVID-19 infections levelling out (at ~1:60). Notably this level is roughly the same as the long 'minimum' (all autumn 2021) and the the minima (27 May and 3 Sep 2022). So maybe (for UK) this is the pandemic norm.
2) Similar pattern to hospital admissions with about one third 'because of' and two thirds 'with' (ie incidental) - latter is still not good for the patient, makes preventing in-hospital infection more difficult and consumes resourcs, and risks infecting staff (forcing their absence for (say) 10 days)).
3) COVID-19 booster take-up is 89% for over 75s, 76% for 65-74 and 56% for 50-64.
[My comment] Given that the younger you get the less chance, even if (when) you catch it (again), of serious illness, I can see why the take-up drops off. But for those few who have not knowingly been infected, makes assured sense to get vaccinated/boosted because they won't have antibodies from 'natural' infection. Think there's evidence that protection from serious illness is greatest from a combo of vaccination and natural infection (someone else can go and fact check that, if inclined).
4) Variants: CH.1 is small (4%) but the fastest growing variant. However BQ.1 is over half of infections at present, and the % rising (as a proportion in a 'stable' market).
5) Flu's up.









Verbal message was: if you haven't yet and are eligible; get your flu vaccine.


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## Ajax Bay (2 Dec 2022)

Good overview of the issues in China
(WHO top advisor Nabarro): 
View: https://youtu.be/DJKCdBM2PSA?t=1082


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## deptfordmarmoset (2 Dec 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Ajax Bay said:
> 
> 
> > Think there's evidence that protection from serious illness is greatest from a combo of vaccination and natural infection (someone else can go and fact check that, if inclined).
> ...


On the natural and vaccination point, I take part in the ONS infection survey, which involves 4 weekly PCR and antibody tests. Their feedback to me is that I have ''higher level'' antibodies. Though they don't define how this higher level affects infection rates or how you might get to that level, I've been led to believe that it's because I have had a very early covid infection plus all 4 vaccinations. (No subsequent infections after the pre-lockdown one.)


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## PK99 (2 Dec 2022)

A short while ago I speculated, on the basis of a personal anecdote:




PK99 said:


> And.... my experience is that for maybe 15 years I have been prone to chest infections (4/5 a year needing heavy-duty antibiotics), combined with other conditions these can be potentially life-threatening if they do not respond to my rescue pack of antibiotics.
> 
> From late 2019 to October this year I had ZERO chest infections. In October I had a nasty one that took a month and 14 days of Moxifloxacin to clear.
> ie Covid Isolation protected me from infection risk, as soon as I started mixing normally , in particular taking a short haul cattle class flight, the normal exposure/infection pattern resumed.
> ...



Sadly, Strep A infections in children would appear to give empirical support to my speculation. The early, clear visibility in the case of Strep A deaths in children is likely because of the extremely low normal incidence. In older people observing the effect amongst complex statistical noise will take longer and deeper analysis

Times today:
_Experts fear that a lack of mixing between children during the Covid-19 pandemic caused a drop in population immunity levels, increasing transmission of a variety of infections._


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## Ajax Bay (5 Dec 2022)

Technical-report-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-uk
The UK Chief Medical Officers (CMO), Government Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA), UK deputy CMOs (DCMO) most closely engaged in the COVID-19 response, NHS England National Medical Director, and the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) CE have produced a
technical report on the scientific, public health and clinical aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in UK. The report is written for their successors who, in due course, will face a new pandemic or major epidemic in the UK.

I have not read through it thoroughly but here are a few clips from the introduction:
"COVID-19, influenza, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-1 have very important differences including in age structure of mortality and transmission dynamics despite all being viruses transmitted predominantly by the respiratory route."
"The speed with which effective vaccines against COVID-19 were developed was remarkable, but it cannot be assumed."
[edited]"the UK built up a picture of the key information needed for pharmaceutical interventions and NPIs, including:

modes of transmission for SARS-CoV-2,
common transmission settings,
mortality rate in different ages and risk-groups of society,
the relative importance of asymptomatic infection,
the nature of immunity and reinfection.
" the picture emerged gradually . . . the path to creating the picture was neither linear nor straightforward. Many of the important initial decisions by policymakers in a pandemic have to be taken when many key facts are unknown, or at least uncertain."


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## tom73 (5 Dec 2022)

Anything with input from Jenny Harries needs to come with a bit lump of salt. 
As during the pandemic note no involvement or input from CNO and deputies or mention of importance of Nursing. 
Primary care should have it's own section and specialist input as this was the real sharp end high which was glossed over at the time. 
Specialist areas of care and institutions also are not covered and no input generally. Eg hospices, palliative care nursing , prisons, custody, criminal justice and forensic nursing or FME's


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## Ajax Bay (5 Dec 2022)

Glad you enjoyed it, saline or not. Dame Jennifer, to you.
You point out omissions which do seem worth being included.
Believe there's still time to make submissions to Baroness Hallett.


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## deptfordmarmoset (5 Dec 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> Glad you enjoyed it, saline or not. Dame Jennifer, to you.
> You point out omissions which do seem worth being included.
> Believe there's still time to make submissions to Baroness Hallett.



Matron Harries for me.


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## classic33 (30 Dec 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> I think masking by default (or wearing an 'exempt' lanyard) in a hospital/surgery/care home setting (latter of the staff, not inmates) is entirely reasonable and sensible, and is within the gift of those institutions/buildings management to impose/enforce.
> Improved ventilation/air exchange on public transport and indoor close stranger settings is an improvement opportunity I fear we will not grasp.
> Not in favour of broad brush visiting restrictions in illness/care settings. One of the pandemic's tragedies is the general prevention of close(st) relatives not being able to visit/'say goodbye'.


I'm exempt on medical grounds, and refuse to/will not wear a lanyard saying that I'm disabled. The grounds for exemption, for myself. It doesn't appear as though I am disabled/have a disability. I do however carry a card that says the same thing. I do however wear one, half face mask, in medical settings assuming I have it with me.

The exempt on health grounds got me enough abuse when they were mandatory in certain places.


Posted it here as the other thread was more for the personal effects.


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## Ajax Bay (30 Dec 2022)

Ajax Bay said:


> I think masking by default (or wearing an 'exempt' lanyard) in a hospital/surgery/care home setting (latter of the staff, not inmates) is entirely reasonable and sensible, and is within the gift of those institutions/buildings management to impose/enforce.
> Improved ventilation/air exchange on public transport and indoor close stranger settings is an improvement opportunity I fear we will not grasp.
> Not in favour of broad brush visiting restrictions in illness/care settings. One of the pandemic's tragedies is the general prevention of close(st) relatives not being able to visit/'say goodbye'.





classic33 said:


> I'm exempt on medical grounds, and refuse to/will not wear a lanyard saying that I'm disabled. The grounds for exemption, for myself. It doesn't appear as though I am disabled/have a disability. I do however carry a card that says the same thing. I do however wear one, half face mask, in medical settings assuming I have it with me.
> The exempt on health grounds got me enough abuse when they were mandatory in certain places.
> Posted it here as the other thread was more for the personal effects.


Agree this thread better and I've pasted my post in to afford context.
From an institution's PoV, if they wish to enforce a 'masks will be worn unless exempt' policy, it's really difficult to maintain discipline (staff, visitors and patients) if some don't and there's no 'obvious' reason (eg small child). A simple lanyard (easier to wear than a mask - maybe not) offers a
I appreciate you've had to deal with this stuff for 3 years now, or longer(?). I have no experience of 'less than fully abled/healthy' but seeing those wearing lanyards for me didn't label them (as you perceive) as "am disabled/have a disability".
I see that as the person having a valid reason for not wearing a mask: that's all: I did not question or even consider the reason: what would be the point?
Surprised you think that the "abuse" you suffered was worth the principle of no overt disclosure, and you can have empathy with others bridling on being forced to wear masks asking wtf.


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## classic33 (30 Dec 2022)

The sunflower lanyard signifies a hidden disability. It's nothing new, or to do with just the last few years. What I find odd is how many of the people who suddenly started wearing one, rather than a mask, now no longer wear one(sunflower lanyard).

The abuse usually came from those with some authority to ensure people wore masks, "security" or bus drivers. Other passengers who were told upon trying to get on without wearing one, would point in my direction saying something along the lines of "He's not wearing one!". Something happened, it wasn't always to the local A&E I was taken. Getting back home meant having to travel on three, maybe four buses. I avoided bus stations for this reason. Medical staff were more understanding of the problem.

I wore a full face enclosed air supply mask for the first year, then a half face mask. Both I already had, are better than the paper masks, which don't taste that nice either.

Maybe if old habits hadn't returned so quickly, coughing, sneezing without covering the mouth, spitting and clearing the throat, all without consideration for anyone else, there'd be less chance of a mass return to compulsory mask wearing.

The epilepsy is bad enough without having to wear a badge/card(printed off at home) on a lanyard. I did actually consider getting I have epilepsy/I am living with epilepsy printed onto a Hi-Vis vest just to cover the times when one couldn't be worn, but the shop was shut.


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## KnittyNorah (30 Dec 2022)

classic33 said:


> coughing, sneezing without covering the mouth, spitting and clearing the throat, all without consideration for anyone else,


THIS - together with what seems like a total abandonment of any attempt at increasing ventilation/air flow on public transport (buses in particular) even during rush hour/busy times - is what pushed me into going back to wearing a decent, well-fitting N95 on public transport after a couple of months 'off' in summer. 
I don't wear a mask anywhere else now, unless I'm asked to do so, or it's wise to do so in the specific circumstances - but I'm not a person to hang around in stuffy indoor crowded places, never have been. Even my choir, which I returned to a few months ago, is having an outdoor session on NYD - a musical walk, if you like! There'll be plenty of ventilation on the seafront!


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## Ajax Bay (Saturday at 00:05)

Given the Omicron sub-variant hitting the news, I thought this was an excellent article on shared by the CAG:
https://covidactuaries.org/2021/05/22/policy-response-the-question-before-the-question/
The question before the question?​ 


Josephine Robertson
2021-05-22
425 views
2 min read
There will continue to be variants as the pandemic continues. Even post-pandemic the worry of some resurgence will remain. The obvious question with any variant might seem to be _“should we be worried about this variant?” _ Here though, we consider the importance of the underlying question.
The underlying question relates to our assumed starting position. This is known as a prior assumption (the statement that is assumed true without the need for proof).
Different framing can shed light on different societal public health approaches, and in general decision-making under uncertainty.
Policymakers say they are following the science, which often includes hypothesis testing. Scientists ask what evidence exists to disprove the ‘null hypothesis’? The ‘null hypothesis’ (or H0) is our assumption of normality (the prior assumption).
So, when we hear, ‘no evidence yet’ with regard to properties of a variant, what does this mean? It could mean two things, when the original hypothesis is framed two different ways.






Framing the original hypothesis differently has a great impact on the resulting decision-making under the uncertainty caused by a lack of evidence.





This can seem like semantics, but it has real consequences. Approach 1 allows the population to be exposed to a risk while we accumulate evidence. Approach 2 minimises exposure to a risk until it is better understood.
Under Approach 1, those disproportionately exposed to the virus in society provide the statistical evidence – the canary in the coal mine.
Under Approach 2, societal cohesion is called upon to mitigate a risk not yet fully understood or that poses only a minimal risk at that time. Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and others are examples of minimising exposure early, in order to avoid lengthy Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions after a period of exponential growth.
At the start of the pandemic, these different approaches to framing the hypothesis led to different public health responses. As we continue in our pandemic response, what should our prior assumption be – a state of normality or a state of emergency?
Variants will continue to emerge – at home and abroad – and they will continue to pose a risk. How quickly we respond and how we respond may rely on how we pose the question before the question.


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## Ajax Bay (Saturday at 13:19)

Omicron XBB recombinant (V-22OCT-02) of SARS-CoV-2 "is unlikely to pose an additional threat to health but could accelerate cases of COVID-19 in the UK, virologists think."
Comment: I wonder what is actually meant be "accelerate"?
Pollard: " urged restraint so as not to drive fear that each new variant heralds a new crisis in the pandemic. There is no reason to think that XBB.1.5 is of any more concern than other variants that come and go in the ever-changing landscape of COVID-19 mutants."
This sub-variant (XBB.1.5) is responsible for >40% of new cases across the USA (top strain and increasing in proportion). Found but uncommon in many (29?) other countries. In UK is thought to account for about 7% of new cases (@ 6 Jan), according to UKHSA sequencing data.


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